Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 10/29/14


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1158 AM MDT MON OCT 27 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 856 AM MDT MON OCT 27 2014 UPDATED THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. REDUCED POPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS TODAY BASED ON WEBCAMS...OBS...AND LATEST 12Z GUIDANCE. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWERS TODAY WILL BE OVER THE SAWATCH RANGE. HAVE LOWERED POPS TO BELOW 10 PERCENT FOR THE SW MTS AND LOWER ELEVATIONS. E OF THE MTS...HAVE RAISED POPS SLIGHTLY FOR EL PASO COUNTY...AND ALSO INTRODUCED POPS OVER THE LOWER ARKANSAS VALLEY THIS EVENING. THERE HAS BEEN GOOD CONSISTENCY OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS AMONG SEVERAL OF THE HIGH RES MODELS...INCLUDING THE HRRR AND NMM...THAT SCT SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER EL PASO COUNTY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...AND THEN SOME BANDED PRECIP ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE LOWER ARKANSAS FROM AROUND 00-03Z THIS EVENING. MOISTURE LOOKS LIMITED...BUT PER SOUNDINGS A SATURATED LAYER FROM ROUGHLY H8 TO H6 SHOULD DEVELOP IN THIS TIME FRAME...AND SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY. ROSE UPDATE ISSUED AT 750 AM MDT MON OCT 27 2014 LOADED IN LATEST OBSERVATIONS. TWEAKED SHORT TERM POP AND SKY COVER GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 447 AM MDT MON OCT 27 2014 ...CENTRAL MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS...COOLER...FREEZE WATCH TONIGHT... A PACIFIC DISTURBANCE IS TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN COLORADO THIS MORNING. RADAR SHOWS SNOW SHOWERS STREAMING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. WEB CAMS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS CONFIRM WITH THE FREMONT PASS...MONARCH PASS AND LEADVILLE CAMS ALL SHOWING SNOW ON THE GROUND AND WET ROADS. ALSO...THE LEADVILLE ASOS HAS REPORTED LIGHT SNOW AT TIMES. SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST QUICKLY AND SNOWFALL SHOULD ALREADY BE WINDING DOWN OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BY MID MORNING. AFTER THAT...SOME VERY SLIGHT PRECIP CHANCES WILL EXTEND EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT ONLY SPOTTY PRECIP AT BEST...AND MOSTLY JUST AROUND THE PIKES PEAK REGION. SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME LIGHT PRECIP DEVELOPMENT OVER THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS THIS EVENING...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT TOO HIGH IN THIS RIGHT NOW AS IT HAS BEEN INCONSISTENT IN THE MODELS AND THE AMOUNTS BEING DEPICTED ARE VERY LIGHT. BELIEVE IT IS A MODEL RESPONSE TO SOME UPPER JET ENERGY MOVING THROUGH DURING THE EVENING HOURS. WHILE SOME CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO THE JET MOVING THROUGH...IT WOULD TAKE SOME WORK TO MOISTEN UP THE LOWER LEVELS ENOUGH TO GET APPRECIABLE PRECIP TO THE SURFACE. SO...MAYBE SOME LIGHT SPOTTY STUFF...BUT PROBABLY NOTHING TOO WIDESPREAD OR SIGNIFICANT. AS ALWAYS...HOWEVER...LATER SHIFTS WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TO SEE HOW THINGS EVOLVE THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY. ONCE THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT...ATTENTION WILL TURN TO THE FALLING TEMPERATURES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A FREEZE ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS...WHERE THERE HAS REALLY NOT BEEN ONE YET THIS FALL. THE SEVERITY OF THE FREEZE WILL BE CONTINGENT ON THE AMOUNT OF WIND AND CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE PLAINS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. IF THERE IS TOO MUCH OF EITHER...NOT SO HARD OF A FREEZE. HOWEVER...IF THE SKIES CLEAR OUT AND THE WINDS GO LIGHT...THEN THERE COULD BE A HARD...KILLING...FREEZE. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE FREEZE WATCH FOR NOW. LATER SHIFTS CAN DECIDE WHETHER OR NOT TO PULL THE TRIGGER ON A FREEZE WARNING WHEN MORE DATA COMES IN. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 447 AM MDT MON OCT 27 2014 TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...COOL NW FLOW ALOFT SETTLES IN ACROSS THE REGION FOR TUE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...WITH CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED. VERY COLD TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE FORECAST AREA TUE MORNING...BUT ONE WILD CARD WILL BE HOW STRONG WINDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE PLAINS IN THE MORNING WHICH WOULD AFFECT TEMPS...SO WILL MAINTAIN THE FREEZE WATCH AT THIS TIME. AFTER SUCH A COLD START...MAX TEMPS TUE ARE FORECAST TO ONLY WARM TO AROUND 60F FOR THE PLAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS. AN UPPER RIDGE THEN BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR WED AND THU FOR CONTINUE DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS. TEMPS WED MORN ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO BE CHILLY...SO ANOTHER WATCH MAY BE ISSUED THEN. FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE STATE AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH...WHICH WILL SHIFT THE FLOW ALOFT TO A MORE SW DIRECTION THROUGH THE DAY FRI. THIS WILL DRAW MOISTURE UP INTO WESTERN COLORADO AND PCPN CHANCES RETURN TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN BEGINNING AFTER MIDNIGHT FRI NIGHT...AND LASTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EC AND GFS MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL ONCE AGAIN FOCUS THE ENERGY MOSTLY ACROSS NORTHERN CO...SO AT THIS TIME ONLY ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED POPS ARE WARRANTED FOR THE MTS. THE INCREASING SW FLOW SHOULD HELP TO BOOST TEMPS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS BACK ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS...WITH MAX TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE MID 70S FOR THE PLAINS FOR BOTH SAT AND SUN. MOORE && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1155 AM MDT MON OCT 27 2014 MAIN AVN CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS ALONG WITH MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE. THIS WILL BE MOST LIKELY AT KOS AFTER 20Z AND LASTING THROUGH 06Z. COULD ALSO SEE A FEW SHOWERS AT KCOS OR VC KCOS. POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP AT KPUB WILL BE MAXIMIZED FROM 21Z THROUGH 04Z...BUT PROB IS TOO LOW TO MENTION EXPLICITLY IN THE TAF. CIGS SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER 06Z AND LEAD TO VFR FOR THE BALANCE OF TUESDAY. ROSE && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR COZ085>089-093>098. && $$ UPDATE...ROSE SHORT TERM...LW LONG TERM...MOORE AVIATION...ROSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
906 AM MDT MON OCT 27 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 856 AM MDT MON OCT 27 2014 UPDATED THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. REDUCED POPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS TODAY BASED ON WEBCAMS...OBS...AND LATEST 12Z GUIDANCE. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWERS TODAY WILL BE OVER THE SAWATCH RANGE. HAVE LOWERED POPS TO BELOW 10 PERCENT FOR THE SW MTS AND LOWER ELEVATIONS. E OF THE MTS...HAVE RAISED POPS SLIGHTLY FOR EL PASO COUNTY...AND ALSO INTRODUCED POPS OVER THE LOWER ARKANSAS VALLEY THIS EVENING. THERE HAS BEEN GOOD CONSISTENCY OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS AMONG SEVERAL OF THE HIGH RES MODELS...INCLUDING THE HRRR AND NMM...THAT SCT SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER EL PASO COUNTY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...AND THEN SOME BANDED PRECIP ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE LOWER ARKANSAS FROM AROUND 00-03Z THIS EVENING. MOISTURE LOOKS LIMITED...BUT PER SOUNDINGS A SATURATED LAYER FROM ROUGHLY H8 TO H6 SHOULD DEVELOP IN THIS TIME FRAME...AND SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY. ROSE UPDATE ISSUED AT 750 AM MDT MON OCT 27 2014 LOADED IN LATEST OBSERVATIONS. TWEAKED SHORT TERM POP AND SKY COVER GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 447 AM MDT MON OCT 27 2014 ...CENTRAL MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS...COOLER...FREEZE WATCH TONIGHT... A PACIFIC DISTURBANCE IS TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN COLORADO THIS MORNING. RADAR SHOWS SNOW SHOWERS STREAMING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. WEB CAMS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS CONFIRM WITH THE FREMONT PASS...MONARCH PASS AND LEADVILLE CAMS ALL SHOWING SNOW ON THE GROUND AND WET ROADS. ALSO...THE LEADVILLE ASOS HAS REPORTED LIGHT SNOW AT TIMES. SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST QUICKLY AND SNOWFALL SHOULD ALREADY BE WINDING DOWN OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BY MID MORNING. AFTER THAT...SOME VERY SLIGHT PRECIP CHANCES WILL EXTEND EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT ONLY SPOTTY PRECIP AT BEST...AND MOSTLY JUST AROUND THE PIKES PEAK REGION. SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME LIGHT PRECIP DEVELOPMENT OVER THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS THIS EVENING...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT TOO HIGH IN THIS RIGHT NOW AS IT HAS BEEN INCONSISTENT IN THE MODELS AND THE AMOUNTS BEING DEPICTED ARE VERY LIGHT. BELIEVE IT IS A MODEL RESPONSE TO SOME UPPER JET ENERGY MOVING THROUGH DURING THE EVENING HOURS. WHILE SOME CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO THE JET MOVING THROUGH...IT WOULD TAKE SOME WORK TO MOISTEN UP THE LOWER LEVELS ENOUGH TO GET APPRECIABLE PRECIP TO THE SURFACE. SO...MAYBE SOME LIGHT SPOTTY STUFF...BUT PROBABLY NOTHING TOO WIDESPREAD OR SIGNIFICANT. AS ALWAYS...HOWEVER...LATER SHIFTS WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TO SEE HOW THINGS EVOLVE THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY. ONCE THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT...ATTENTION WILL TURN TO THE FALLING TEMPERATURES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A FREEZE ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS...WHERE THERE HAS REALLY NOT BEEN ONE YET THIS FALL. THE SEVERITY OF THE FREEZE WILL BE CONTINGENT ON THE AMOUNT OF WIND AND CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE PLAINS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. IF THERE IS TOO MUCH OF EITHER...NOT SO HARD OF A FREEZE. HOWEVER...IF THE SKIES CLEAR OUT AND THE WINDS GO LIGHT...THEN THERE COULD BE A HARD...KILLING...FREEZE. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE FREEZE WATCH FOR NOW. LATER SHIFTS CAN DECIDE WHETHER OR NOT TO PULL THE TRIGGER ON A FREEZE WARNING WHEN MORE DATA COMES IN. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 447 AM MDT MON OCT 27 2014 TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...COOL NW FLOW ALOFT SETTLES IN ACROSS THE REGION FOR TUE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...WITH CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED. VERY COLD TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE FORECAST AREA TUE MORNING...BUT ONE WILD CARD WILL BE HOW STRONG WINDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE PLAINS IN THE MORNING WHICH WOULD AFFECT TEMPS...SO WILL MAINTAIN THE FREEZE WATCH AT THIS TIME. AFTER SUCH A COLD START...MAX TEMPS TUE ARE FORECAST TO ONLY WARM TO AROUND 60F FOR THE PLAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS. AN UPPER RIDGE THEN BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR WED AND THU FOR CONTINUE DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS. TEMPS WED MORN ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO BE CHILLY...SO ANOTHER WATCH MAY BE ISSUED THEN. FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE STATE AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH...WHICH WILL SHIFT THE FLOW ALOFT TO A MORE SW DIRECTION THROUGH THE DAY FRI. THIS WILL DRAW MOISTURE UP INTO WESTERN COLORADO AND PCPN CHANCES RETURN TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN BEGINNING AFTER MIDNIGHT FRI NIGHT...AND LASTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EC AND GFS MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL ONCE AGAIN FOCUS THE ENERGY MOSTLY ACROSS NORTHERN CO...SO AT THIS TIME ONLY ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED POPS ARE WARRANTED FOR THE MTS. THE INCREASING SW FLOW SHOULD HELP TO BOOST TEMPS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS BACK ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS...WITH MAX TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE MID 70S FOR THE PLAINS FOR BOTH SAT AND SUN. MOORE && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 447 AM MDT MON OCT 27 2014 SNOW SHOWERS WITH MVFR/IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 THIS MORNING...WITH LESS ACTIVITY SOUTH OF 50. THIS ACTIVITY WILL START TO TAPER OFF AROUND 15Z...AND PRETTY MUCH END BY 18Z. ONLY VERY SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FLIGHT AREA. THERE COULD BE A SPOTTY MVFR/IFR/LIFR CONDITION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY. A SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS MADE ITS WAY SOUTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER AT 12Z AND SHOULD BE INTO NEW MEXICO BY 15Z. NO WEATHER ALONG THE FRONT BUT A WIND SHIFT FROM THE WSW AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO NNE BEHIND IT...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. FRONT HAS ALREADY MOVED THROUGH KCOS AND KPUB AND WILL NOT IMPACT KALS. ALL 3 TAF SITES SHOULD REMAIN VFR NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE IS A SMALL POSSIBILITY THAT EITHER KCOS OR KPUB COULD SEE A BRIEF SHOWER MOVE THROUGH EITHER THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING...BUT THE ODDS ARE QUITE LOW SO NO MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR COZ085>089-093>098. && $$ UPDATE...ROSE SHORT TERM...LW LONG TERM...MOORE AVIATION...LW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
403 PM EDT MON OCT 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...AS A MILDER AIR MASS BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BRIEFLY BE ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE A COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID WEEK PERIOD. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY/... AS OF 300 PM EDT...A RATHER DELIGHTFUL LATE AUTUMN AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION AS AMPLE AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE HAS RESULTED IN AFTERNOON HIGHS WELL INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60F FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS. CI/CS CLOUD COVER WAS ADVECTING INTO THE REGION AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. NEAR TERM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THIS WARM FRONT BECOMES INCREASINGLY MORE ACTIVE OVERNIGHT AS ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOW LEVEL JET FAVOR CLOUDS NOT ONLY INCREASING BUT THE CHANCE FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION. THE LATEST HRRR REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS SUGGEST SHOWERS MAY IMPACT LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF I90 OVERNIGHT. UPSTREAM LIGHTNING ACTIVITY IS CLOSELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UPSTREAM OF THE CWFA. SHOWALTER VALUES OVERNIGHT ARE INITIALLY NEAR 0C ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL NY AND THOSE VALUES GRADUALLY FILL AS IT APPROACHES OUR REGION. AT THIS TIME...WE WILL WITHHOLD THE MENTION OF THUNDER AS WE MONITOR UPSTREAM TRENDS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL BE A BIT MILDER AS WE WILL TREND A BIT WARMER THAN GUIDANCE /CLOSER THE THE LAMP/LAV HOURLY GUIDANCE/. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... TUESDAY...WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH AS OUR REGION BECOMES WELL ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR. SHOULD BE A SPLENDID DAY UNFOLDING AS STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT H850 TEMPS TO BETWEEN +11C TO +15C. COMBINE THAT WITH SUNSHINE AND DOWNSLOPING...VALLEY LOCATIONS COULD ONCE AGAIN OBSERVE NEAR OR JUST A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE 70F WITH 60S ELSEWHERE /AND BASED ON TEMPS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY AFTERNOON...THIS COULD EASILY BE OBTAINED/. TUESDAY NIGHT...AS THE PREVIOUS EXCELLENT AFD...VARIABLE TIMING REMAINS FROM THE NCEP MODEL GUIDANCE WITH THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A COUPLE RUMBLES OF THUNDER WITH THE COLD FRONT. THERE IS DECENT LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH THE FRONT AS S/SW LLJ OF 40-50 KTS WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION SOME GULF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. LATEST TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE ARE SUGGESTING THE FROPA WILL BE A BIT SLOWER TO CLEAR THE REGION. UPPER FLOW REMAINS POSITIVELY TILTED WITH A WEAK SURFACE PERTURBATION/REFLECTING DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL NY OVERNIGHT. SO WE WILL SLOW DOWN POPS/WX GRIDS AND KEEP MOST OF THE NIGHT UNDER SCT-LIKELY POPS. LOWS TEMPS WILL BE A BIT BALMY IN THE LOWER TO M50S...EXCEPT SOME U40S OVER THE SRN DACKS. WEDNESDAY...AS A SLOWER FROPA IS EXPECTED...WE WILL SLOW DOWN THE EXIT OF THIS FRONT AND KEEP THE MENTION OF POPS/WX FOR THE EASTERN 1/2 OF THE CWFA IN THE MORNING. MEANWHILE...SLOW ADVECTING COLDER AIR WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE DAY. AS THIS COOLER AIR MOVES ACROSS THE WARM WATERS OF THE GREAT LAKES...AMPLE STRATUS WILL REDEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY. THESE VARIABLES WILL RESULT IN A COOLER DAY THAN TUESDAYS WITH HIGHS AROUND 60F FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND 50S FOR MOST OTHER LOCATIONS /SOME UPPER 40S FOR THE DACKS/. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT CLEARS THE REGION WITH STRONGER PUSH COLD ADVECTION DURING THE EVENING HOURS. H850 TEMPS FALL TO 0C ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES TO -4C NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. THIS WILL TRIGGER SOME ISOLD LAKE EFFECT/INDUCED SHOWERS OVER THE SRN DACKS...SOME OF WHICH MAY MIX WITH SNOW. SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO THE WEST-CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE M30S TO L40S FOR MOST OF THE REGION. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OFF MAINLY QUIET AND MAINLY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST TO OUR SOUTH THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THE AIR WILL BE COOL ENOUGH AND BREEZY ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST SOME LAKE ENHANCED PRECIPITATION POSSIBLY COMING OFF LAKE ONTARIO...MAINLY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY. TEMPERATURES LOOK WARM ENOUGH FOR ANY PRECIPITATION TO BE MAINLY RAIN WITH ANY SNOW CONFINED TO THE HIGHEST TERRAIN. ANY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ON THURSDAY WILL BE LIGHT. MOST OTHER AREAS SHOULD BE DRY WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE (MORE SUN THE FURTHER SOUTH ONE GOES). TEMPERATURES WILL SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S ALBANY SOUTHWARD...BUT ONLY IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50 FURTHER NORTH AND ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE MAINLY IN THE 30S...TO AROUND 40 LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION. BY FRIDAY...AN IMPRESSIVE CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING FROM OUR WEST AND ALOFT...A NEW TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS. RIGHT NOW...MOST OF FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING LATE IN THE DAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 50 IN THE VALLEYS...40S HIGHER TERRAIN. SHOWERS LOOK TO INCREASE ACROSS OUR REGION FRIDAY AS ENERGY FROM THE CLIPPER TRANSFORMS INTO AN OCEAN STORM BY EARLY SATURDAY. ALOFT AN UPPER AIR LOW WILL BE CUTTING TO EAST OUR WELL...WHICH WILL CAPTURE THE SURFACE STORM TO THE EAST OF CAPE COD. ALL THE 12Z GUIDANCE HAD THIS SURFACE STORM DEVELOPING TOO FAR EAST TO BRING A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO OUR REGION. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT...WHEN COMBINED THE DEVELOPING TROUGH DRIVING ENOUGH COLD AIR INTO THE REGION...TO PRODUCE SOME SNOW ACROSS REGION SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. IT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THAT SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW COULD TAKE PLACE...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS BUT EVEN VALLEY AREAS COULD SEE A LEAST A LITTLE. KEEP IN MIND...THIS STORM IS POTENTIALLY FOUR DAYS OUT...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS STORM COULD DEVELOP A LITTLE FURTHER WEST. IT DEFINITELY BEARS WATCHING AS ANY POSSIBLE EARLY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION COULD PRODUCE PROBLEMS AS MANY TREES FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH STILL HAVE A FAIR AMOUNT OF LEAVES ON THEM. FOR NOW...CONTINUED WITH 40-50 POPS ACROSS OUR REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH AGAIN THE BEST CHANCES FOR SNOW OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT CHANCES FOR AT LEAST SNOW SHOWERS EXIST EVERYWHERE BY SATURDAY NIGHT. STORM OR NOT...IT LOOKS AS IF THE COLDEST AIR MASS SINCE LAST APRIL WILL BE USHERED IN SATURDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY...THE OCEAN STORM LOOKS TO BE SITUATED NEAR NOVA SCOTIA...PRODUCING A BRISK WIND FLOW. THERE MIGHT BE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS...BUT THE FLOW AT POINT LOOKED MORE NORTHWESTERLY (THAN WESTERLY) THIS WOULD IMPLY ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS WOULD BE FRAGMENTED ACROSS MAINLY THE ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...IT WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD THEY TAKE PLACE. THE ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE ON MONDAY. LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 30S NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY ON SATURDAY...40-45 ALBANY SOUTHWARD. TEMPERATURES WILL DIVE DOWN INTO THE 20S ACROSS MOST PLACES SATURDAY NIGHT. ON SUNDAY...HIGHS WILL GENERALLY ONLY BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER THAN SATURDAY. BY MONDAY...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO MODERATE BACK INTO THE 40S...TO AROUND 50 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD COUNTY. && .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD ENDING 18Z TUESDAY. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TO START THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. THEN HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. CIGS MAY BRIEFLY LOWER TO AROUND 4000-5000 FT AGL AROUND 12Z TUESDAY...BUT SHOULD RISE RATHER QUICKLY ONCE THE WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE WEST-NORTHWEST AROUND 3-8 KTS...THEN BECOMING NEAR CALM TONIGHT. OUTLOOK... TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA. WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN. SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN. && .FIRE WEATHER... NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH MOST AREAS SOUTH OF I90 REMAINING DRY. A MILD AND DRY DAY SETTING UP FOR TUESDAY WITH A SOUTHERLY BREEZE OF 10 TO 18 MPH AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND TONIGHT...BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH ARE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY. THE RH VALUES WILL RECOVERY OVERNIGHT TO BETWEEN 80 AND 100 PERCENT...THEN DROP INTO THE 40-60 PERCENTILE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. && .HYDROLOGY... NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK. RIVERS FLOWS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THE NEXT FEW DAYS DESPITE THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL WILL BE IN THE TENTH TO HALF OF AN INCH RANGE. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR MOST OF THE HSA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATER FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. SOME THE PRECIPITATION MAY BE RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. MA...NONE. VT...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BGM/WASULA NEAR TERM...BGM SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA LONG TERM...HWJIV AVIATION...JPV FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSONVILLE FL
815 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014 .UPDATE...SURFACE HIGH OFF THE EAST COAST WITH RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS NE FL THIS EVENING. SOUTH TO SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT RIGHT ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER SO DON`T EXPECT WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG LIKE PREVIOUS NIGHTS. THINK STRATUS WITH PATCHY FOG WILL BE MORE THE CASE TONIGHT. CLOUDS AHEAD OF SLOWLY APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO THE NW WILL INCREASE OVER SE GA AND PARTS OF NE FL LATER TONIGHT...SO EXPECT MOST OF FOG TO BE LOCATED OVER AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF I-10. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHTS READINGS. && .AVIATION...AREAS OF LATE NIGHT FOG ARE EXPECTED AGAIN...BUT PERSISTENT WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG CONDITIONS ARE LESS IDEAL COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT DUE TO PASSING CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY ELEVATED SSW BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS OF 5-10 MPH. EVENING OBSERVATIONS SHOWED FEW-SCT LOW CLOUDS BETWEEN 4-6 KFT OVER THE FL PENINSULA AND BOTH THE HRRR AND NAM MODELS ADVERTISE THESE CLOUDS PERSISTING AND ROTATING NNE ACROSS NE FL OVERNIGHT AS WISPS OF CIRRUS PASSES OVER SE GA. DESPITE PASSING FEW-SCT CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION PER THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE COMBINED WITH NEAR CALM WINDS WILL SUPPORT MVFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT...WITH DEVELOPMENT AROUND 03-04Z BASED ON LAST NIGHTS FOG TRENDS. ADJUSTED IFR TO LIFR FOG TO ONLY TEMPO PERIODS AT THIS TIME BETWEEN 08-12Z AGAIN BASED ON LAST NIGHTS FOG TRENDS. BY 13-14Z WED LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BREAK TO VFR CONDITIONS WITH A THICKER CUMULUS FIELD WED COMPARED TODAY. SSW WINDS WILL BACK SSE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST WITH THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE MID- LATE AFTN WED. && .MARINE...WINDS LESS THAN 15 KNOTS WILL BE SE THIS EVENING AND THEN VEER TO THE SW BY MORNING AS SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT TO THE NW MOVES INTO THE SE STATES. SEAS WILL BE 1 TO 2 FEET. RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 58 84 58 76 / 0 10 30 20 SSI 66 81 63 75 / 0 0 20 30 JAX 61 83 62 80 / 0 0 10 30 SGJ 66 81 64 78 / 0 0 10 30 GNV 60 84 60 81 / 0 0 10 30 OCF 61 85 60 82 / 0 0 10 30 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GA...NONE. AM...NONE. && $$ ZIBURA/ENYEDI/WALKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1011 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014 .DISCUSSION... 850 PM CDT FOR EVENING UPDATE... ONLY MINOR CHANGE MADE TO GOING FORECAST THIS EVENING WAS TO SLOW THE CLEARING OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. SUB-995 MB SFC LOW LIFTING SLOWLY AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS ONTARIO THIS EVENING...WITH CYCLONIC WEST-NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW IN ITS WAKE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. SOME DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER HAS TEMPORARILY OCCURRED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN IL EARLY THIS EVENING...THOUGH GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ANOTHER STRONG VORT DIGGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH A FAIRLY SOLID AREA OF CLOUD COVER AND EVEN A FEW SPRINKLES NOTED OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND FAR WESTERN WISCONSIN. WITH APPROACHING VORT AND EXTENSIVE UPSTREAM CLOUD COVER IN CONTINUED LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION REGIME...WOULD EXPECT THAT CURRENT DEVELOPING HOLES IN CLOUDS WOULD FILL IN AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. OTHERWISE...TEMP AND WIND TRENDS OF GOING FORECAST APPEAR REASONABLE AND HAVE MADE NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES EXCEPT FOR SKY COVER. RATZER //PREV DISCUSSION... 300 PM CDT BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL CHARACTERIZE THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH AN INFLUX OF MUCH COLDER AND WELL BELOW NORMAL AIR ARRIVING FRIDAY/SATURDAY BEFORE THINGS MODERATE EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT HELPED PUSH A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING IS NOW CENTERED OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND TRACKING EASTWARD. RATHER LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGING IS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. AND CANADIAN ROCKIES WITH A SERIES OF LARGER SCALE TROUGHS OFF THE WEST COAST. OF NOTE IS A WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW OVER CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA WHICH WILL CROSS THE AREA AND SET THE STAGE FOR THE BIG COOL DOWN FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE...BROAD LOW PRESSURE IS OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WITH THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THIS MORNING NOW WELL TO THE EAST. TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...QUIET WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT A STEADY THOUGH NOT TERRIBLY STRONG WESTERLY WIND WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT BUT DO EXPECT THEM TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC BUT ANOTHER TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY AND SWING ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. THE BULK OF THE ASCENT AND DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WILL PASS NORTH OF THE AREA SO AM ONLY EXPECTING SOME INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS NORTHERN AREA AND THIS MAY BE MINIMAL. THE TROUGH WILL INTRODUCE ANOTHER MODEST PUSH OF COLDER MID LEVEL AIR SO HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLDER THAN TODAY WITH READINGS FROM AROUND 50 NORTH TO THE MID 50S FAR SOUTH. WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWESTERLY BUT BECOME FAIRLY LIGHT LATE IN THE DAY. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR COLDER TEMPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH 30S FOR ALL AREAS OUTSIDE THE IMMEDIATE DOWNTOWN AREA. THE WAVE OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA TODAY WILL MAKE ITS WAY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE MIXED WITH REGARD TO PRECIP POTENTIAL THURSDAY BUT A FAIRLY DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL BE IN PLACE SO DRY CONDITIONS COULD PREVAIL. WILL GO AHEAD AND CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION FOR MOST AREAS FOR NOW. THE WAVE WILL BRING A PUSH OF WARMER MID LEVEL AIR AHEAD OF IT SO HIGHS WILL MODERATE INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE RATHER CONSISTENT ON A STRONG UPPER TROUGH DIGGING STRAIGHT SOUTH FROM NORTHERN CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL PUSH A RELATIVELY WEAK SURFACE LOW SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL BE DEEPENING WITH TIME. A VERY STRONG CANADIAN HIGH BUILDS INTO THE MID/UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES BEHIND THE LOW INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. H85 TEMPS ARE STILL FORECAST TO FALL TO AROUND -8C WITH SOME GUIDANCE TRENDING A LITTLE COLDER. THIS WILL RESULT IN MUCH COLDER SURFACE AIR SPREADING IN THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY WHICH IF TIMING HOLDS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN FALLING TEMPS THROUGH THE DAY. WHILE IT IS STILL EARLY FOR SPECIFICS DO HAVE A FEW CONCERNS THAT WILL BEAR WATCHING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC SET UP. FIRST IS PRECIP. THE BULK OF SYNOPTIC PRECIP APPEARS TO REMAIN TO THE EAST OF THE AREA WITH THE UPPER LOW CENTER REMAINING JUST TO THE EAST WITH THE DEFORMATION AXIS PRECIP LOOKING SHORT LIVED...THOUGH ENOUGH COLD AIR COULD ARRIVE ALLOWING FOR A MIX OF PRECIP TYPES. NEXT IS LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL. IT WILL CERTAINLY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT PROCESSES WITH LAKE-H85 DELTA TS OF 18-19 C. ORGANIZATION OF BANDS LOOKS TO BE THE CHALLENGE WITH WINDS STEADILY COMING AROUND FROM NORTHWEST TO NORTH WITH SPEEDS POTENTIALLY BEING VERY STRONG THROUGH THE UNSTABLE LAYER. IN ADDITION...WITH THE STRONG HIGH BUILDING IN INVERSION HEIGHTS MAY QUICKLY FALL PUTTING AN END TO ANY MEANINGFUL PRECIP...ESPECIALLY BY THE TIME A DUE NORTH FETCH FAVORING STRONG CONVERGENCE OVER THE LAKE SETS UP FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING. LAKE PRECIP TYPE WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN AND BE DEPENDENT ON LOW LEVEL TEMPS BUT IF PRECIP CAN OCCUR AFTER DARK FRIDAY THEN IT COULD BE ALL FROZEN. GIVEN THE TIME RANGE AND THE POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTORS WILL CARRY LOW CHANCE POPS FOR AREAS NEAR THE LAKE FAVORED BY A NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHEAST WIND. ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY STRONG WIND GUSTS ALONG THE LAKESHORE...AS WELL AS LARGE WAVES IMPACTING THE SHORELINE THANKS TO THE LONG FETCH OF NORTH WIND. AGAIN...TOO EARLY TO PIN DOWN DETAILS BUT THE ABOVE CONCERNS ARE HIGHLIGHTED GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC EXPECTATIONS. THINGS QUIET DOWN SATURDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES IN LEAVING HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S. SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST SUNDAY WITH A SHARP UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST BRINGING A PUSH OF WARMER AIR. A LARGE TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE WEST AND GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THIS SPLITTING WITH A TROUGH TRACKING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND INTO MANITOBA INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL PUSH THE UPPER RIDGE EAST BUT THE ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW WILL BRING A COLD FRONT TO THE AREA SOME TIME MONDAY OR TUESDAY. WITH THE PARENT LOW SO FAR TO THE NORTH THE FRONT MAY SLOW AND STALL NEAR THE AREA. SUNDAY SHOULD SEE HIGHS MODERATE A BIT WITH HIGHS INTO THE 50S MONDAY. PRECIP TIMING WILL BE DICTATED BY THE TIMING OF THE EXPECTED FRONT. MDB && .AVIATION... //ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 03Z... * GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WEDNESDAY. CMS //DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z... GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE GRADIENT SLOWLY WEAKENS BETWEEN DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN ONTARIO AND APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS. SPEEDS MAY DIP INTO 7-10KT RANGE OVERNIGHT BUT WILL INCREASE AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE LOW LEVELS BEGIN TO MIX...WITH GUSTS INTO THE MID TO UPPER TEEN KT RANGE. AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO SPREAD SOUTHEAST OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...GUSTS WILL DIMINISH IN THE AFTERNOON AND THEN SPEEDS WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH TO 5 KTS OR LESS WEDNESDAY EVENING. BKN/OVC 4-6KFT CIGS MAY LOWER INTO THE 3-4KFT RANGE LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT BUT WITH SOME HOLES SHOWING UP OVER SOUTHERN WI...CONFIDENCE REGARDING HOW PREVAILING BKN CIGS REMAIN OVERNIGHT IS LOW...BUT SHOULD REMAIN VFR. CMS //ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 03Z... * HIGH FOR WINDS THRU THE PERIOD. CMS //OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 00Z... * THURSDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. LIGHT WEST WINDS. * FRIDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. STRONG/GUSTY NORTH WINDS. * SATURDAY...DRY/VFR. NORTHEAST WINDS. * SUNDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. SOUTH WINDS. * MONDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS. && .MARINE... 345 PM CDT DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARDS SOUTHEAST ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE COLDER AIR FILTERS ACROSS THE LAKE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. DESPITE THIS LOW MOVING TOWARDS JAMES BAY TONIGHT...DO EXPECT A FAIRLY TIGHT SURFACE PATTERN TO REMAIN OVER THE LAKE. WINDS TO 30 KT WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE ENTIRE LAKE TONIGHT...WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS REMAINING A POSSIBILITY AS WELL. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A SMALL WINDOW LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...CONSISTING OF A COUPLE OF HOURS...WHEN MORE PREVAILING GALES MIGHT BE OBSERVED. THIS DURATION WILL ONCE AGAIN BE SHORT...AND WITH GUSTS MORE LIKELY TO BE OBSERVED. SO HAVE NOT ISSUED ANY GALE HEADLINE FOR THIS EVENING...BUT HAVE CONTINUED GALE FORCE GUST MENTIONING IN THE GLF. WITH THE LOW FURTHER DEPARTING TO THE NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING NEAR THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...DO EXPECT DIMINISHING WINDS ACROSS THE LAKE. THIS DIMINISHING TREND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY...BEFORE ATTENTION SHIFTS TOWARDS POSSIBLE STRONG WIND EVENT ON FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY...WHILE MUCH COLDER AIR AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILD IN BEHIND IT. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR POTENTIALLY VERY STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE ENTIRE LAKE. THIS SYSTEM WARRANTS CLOSE MONITORING AS HIGH END GALES ARE APPEARING A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STORM FORCE WINDS ALSO THERE. RODRIGUEZ && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. IN...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 4 AM WEDNESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 10 AM WEDNESDAY. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
  [top] Area Forecast Discussion NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 859 PM CDT Tue Oct 28 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 855 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014 Weak shortwave seen on the water vapor loop over central Missouri has brought an increase in high level cloud cover over most of our area this evening. That feature expected to push to our east after midnight taking most of the clouds with it. With the cloud cover over most of the area this evening, temperatures have been a bit slower to fall off but expect that to change when the cirrus deck shifts off to our east after midnight. Have made some minor tweeks to the cloud cover and winds for this evening with the rest of the forecast looking on target. Will send out an update to address the minor changes by 910 pm. && .SHORT TERM...(Tonight) ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014 Cold front has moved well southeast of the region this afternoon with cooler air filtering into the Midwest. Overnight weather anticipated to be quiet and cool. Temperatures on the cooler side of guidance with clearing skies and efficient radiational cooling through the night. Though the gusts will lessen after midnight...pressure gradient winds out the of the west will stay up around 7-10 mph. Additional shortwave diving into the larger trof to the north bringing some potential low clouds into the northern portion of the state, but expected to remain scattered in Peoria and Bloomington and have a negligible impact. && .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Tuesday) ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014 Quiet weather expected overall across central and southeast Illinois for the next few days. However, conditions should trend more active toward the beginning of the next work week. Temperatures through the next week will average below normal, a change from the above normal levels seen for much of October. These cooler than normal temperatures should be at their coldest late Friday night/early Saturday morning, likely resulting in the first hard freeze of the fall locally. Northwest upper level flow will persist into the weekend, helping to keep cool conditions in place. A weak disturbance in the flow, currently over the Pacific Northwest/Southwest Canada, is progged to arrive around Thursday. The models have been generating a little rainfall with this disturbance, but the dry airmass it will be moving through should keep precipitation to a minimum. A reinforcing shot of cold air will follow Thursday`s disturbance. This, combined with a chilly Canadian surface high, will produce good radiational cooling conditions for Friday night and a likely hard freeze by early Saturday morning. A progressive ridge will build across the area by late in the weekend, providing a slight moderation in temperatures. This ridge will be followed by a wave of Pacific origin, and likely bring more widespread rain to the region by Monday into Tuesday. The models differ quite a bit in the details, but there is a hint that the precipitation threat may linger for a few days as the accompanying surface front parallels the upper flow and stalls before leaving the area. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) ISSUED AT 600 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014 VFR conditions are expected thru this forecast period (00z Thu). Some low VFR cigs skirting just to our north early this evening with some broken to overcast cirrus moving northeast into parts of central Illinois. Latest HRRR forecast indicates the stratocu deck to our north will gradually thin out and dissipate later this evening to our north while the high level clouds will shift off to our east late tonight as an upper level trof shifts across the forecast area. Forecast soundings showing some scattered cumulus developing by late morning with bases around 3500-4500 feet. Surface winds will be westerly tonight at 5 to 10 kts and west to northwest at 10 to 15 kts. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...Smith SHORT TERM...HJS LONG TERM...Bak AVIATION...Smith
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
649 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014 .DISCUSSION... 300 PM CDT BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL CHARACTERIZE THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH AN INFLUX OF MUCH COLDER AND WELL BELOW NORMAL AIR ARRIVING FRIDAY/SATURDAY BEFORE THINGS MODERATE EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT HELPED PUSH A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING IS NOW CENTERED OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND TRACKING EASTWARD. RATHER LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGING IS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. AND CANADIAN ROCKIES WITH A SERIES OF LARGER SCALE TROUGHS OFF THE WEST COAST. OF NOTE IS A WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW OVER CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA WHICH WILL CROSS THE AREA AND SET THE STAGE FOR THE BIG COOL DOWN FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE...BROAD LOW PRESSURE IS OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WITH THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THIS MORNING NOW WELL TO THE EAST. TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...QUIET WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT A STEADY THOUGH NOT TERRIBLY STRONG WESTERLY WIND WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT BUT DO EXPECT THEM TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC BUT ANOTHER TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY AND SWING ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. THE BULK OF THE ASCENT AND DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WILL PASS NORTH OF THE AREA SO AM ONLY EXPECTING SOME INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS NORTHERN AREA AND THIS MAY BE MINIMAL. THE TROUGH WILL INTRODUCE ANOTHER MODEST PUSH OF COLDER MID LEVEL AIR SO HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLDER THAN TODAY WITH READINGS FROM AROUND 50 NORTH TO THE MID 50S FAR SOUTH. WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWESTERLY BUT BECOME FAIRLY LIGHT LATE IN THE DAY. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR COLDER TEMPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH 30S FOR ALL AREAS OUTSIDE THE IMMEDIATE DOWNTOWN AREA. THE WAVE OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA TODAY WILL MAKE ITS WAY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE MIXED WITH REGARD TO PRECIP POTENTIAL THURSDAY BUT A FAIRLY DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL BE IN PLACE SO DRY CONDITIONS COULD PREVAIL. WILL GO AHEAD AND CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION FOR MOST AREAS FOR NOW. THE WAVE WILL BRING A PUSH OF WARMER MID LEVEL AIR AHEAD OF IT SO HIGHS WILL MODERATE INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE RATHER CONSISTENT ON A STRONG UPPER TROUGH DIGGING STRAIGHT SOUTH FROM NORTHERN CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL PUSH A RELATIVELY WEAK SURFACE LOW SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL BE DEEPENING WITH TIME. A VERY STRONG CANADIAN HIGH BUILDS INTO THE MID/UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES BEHIND THE LOW INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. H85 TEMPS ARE STILL FORECAST TO FALL TO AROUND -8C WITH SOME GUIDANCE TRENDING A LITTLE COLDER. THIS WILL RESULT IN MUCH COLDER SURFACE AIR SPREADING IN THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY WHICH IF TIMING HOLDS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN FALLING TEMPS THROUGH THE DAY. WHILE IT IS STILL EARLY FOR SPECIFICS DO HAVE A FEW CONCERNS THAT WILL BEAR WATCHING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC SET UP. FIRST IS PRECIP. THE BULK OF SYNOPTIC PRECIP APPEARS TO REMAIN TO THE EAST OF THE AREA WITH THE UPPER LOW CENTER REMAINING JUST TO THE EAST WITH THE DEFORMATION AXIS PRECIP LOOKING SHORT LIVED...THOUGH ENOUGH COLD AIR COULD ARRIVE ALLOWING FOR A MIX OF PRECIP TYPES. NEXT IS LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL. IT WILL CERTAINLY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT PROCESSES WITH LAKE-H85 DELTA TS OF 18-19 C. ORGANIZATION OF BANDS LOOKS TO BE THE CHALLENGE WITH WINDS STEADILY COMING AROUND FROM NORTHWEST TO NORTH WITH SPEEDS POTENTIALLY BEING VERY STRONG THROUGH THE UNSTABLE LAYER. IN ADDITION...WITH THE STRONG HIGH BUILDING IN INVERSION HEIGHTS MAY QUICKLY FALL PUTTING AN END TO ANY MEANINGFUL PRECIP...ESPECIALLY BY THE TIME A DUE NORTH FETCH FAVORING STRONG CONVERGENCE OVER THE LAKE SETS UP FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING. LAKE PRECIP TYPE WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN AND BE DEPENDENT ON LOW LEVEL TEMPS BUT IF PRECIP CAN OCCUR AFTER DARK FRIDAY THEN IT COULD BE ALL FROZEN. GIVEN THE TIME RANGE AND THE POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTORS WILL CARRY LOW CHANCE POPS FOR AREAS NEAR THE LAKE FAVORED BY A NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHEAST WIND. ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY STRONG WIND GUSTS ALONG THE LAKESHORE...AS WELL AS LARGE WAVES IMPACTING THE SHORELINE THANKS TO THE LONG FETCH OF NORTH WIND. AGAIN...TOO EARLY TO PIN DOWN DETAILS BUT THE ABOVE CONCERNS ARE HIGHLIGHTED GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC EXPECTATIONS. THINGS QUIET DOWN SATURDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES IN LEAVING HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S. SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST SUNDAY WITH A SHARP UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST BRINGING A PUSH OF WARMER AIR. A LARGE TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE WEST AND GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THIS SPLITTING WITH A TROUGH TRACKING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND INTO MANITOBA INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL PUSH THE UPPER RIDGE EAST BUT THE ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW WILL BRING A COLD FRONT TO THE AREA SOME TIME MONDAY OR TUESDAY. WITH THE PARENT LOW SO FAR TO THE NORTH THE FRONT MAY SLOW AND STALL NEAR THE AREA. SUNDAY SHOULD SEE HIGHS MODERATE A BIT WITH HIGHS INTO THE 50S MONDAY. PRECIP TIMING WILL BE DICTATED BY THE TIMING OF THE EXPECTED FRONT. MDB && .AVIATION... //ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 00Z... * GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS THIS EVENING AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY. CMS //DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z... GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE GRADIENT SLOWLY WEAKENS BETWEEN DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN ONTARIO AND APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS. SPEEDS MAY DIP INTO 7-10KT RANGE OVERNIGHT BUT WILL INCREASE AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE LOW LEVELS BEGIN TO MIX...WITH GUSTS INTO THE MID TO UPPER TEEN KT RANGE. AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO SPREAD SOUTHEAST OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...GUSTS WILL DIMINISH IN THE AFTERNOON AND THEN SPEEDS WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH TO 5 KTS OR LESS WEDNESDAY EVENING. BKN/OVC 4-6KFT CIGS MAY LOWER INTO THE 3-4KFT RANGE LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT BUT WITH SOME HOLES SHOWING UP OVER SOUTHERN WI...CONFIDENCE REGARDING HOW PREVAILING BKN CIGS REMAIN OVERNIGHT IS LOW...BUT SHOULD REMAIN VFR. CMS //ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 00Z... * HIGH FOR WINDS THRU THE PERIOD. CMS //OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 00Z... * THURSDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. LIGHT WEST WINDS. * FRIDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. STRONG/GUSTY NORTH WINDS. * SATURDAY...DRY/VFR. NORTHEAST WINDS. * SUNDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. SOUTH WINDS. * MONDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS. && .MARINE... 345 PM CDT DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARDS SOUTHEAST ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE COLDER AIR FILTERS ACROSS THE LAKE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. DESPITE THIS LOW MOVING TOWARDS JAMES BAY TONIGHT...DO EXPECT A FAIRLY TIGHT SURFACE PATTERN TO REMAIN OVER THE LAKE. WINDS TO 30 KT WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE ENTIRE LAKE TONIGHT...WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS REMAINING A POSSIBILITY AS WELL. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A SMALL WINDOW LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...CONSISTING OF A COUPLE OF HOURS...WHEN MORE PREVAILING GALES MIGHT BE OBSERVED. THIS DURATION WILL ONCE AGAIN BE SHORT...AND WITH GUSTS MORE LIKELY TO BE OBSERVED. SO HAVE NOT ISSUED ANY GALE HEADLINE FOR THIS EVENING...BUT HAVE CONTINUED GALE FORCE GUST MENTIONING IN THE GLF. WITH THE LOW FURTHER DEPARTING TO THE NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING NEAR THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...DO EXPECT DIMINISHING WINDS ACROSS THE LAKE. THIS DIMINISHING TREND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY...BEFORE ATTENTION SHIFTS TOWARDS POSSIBLE STRONG WIND EVENT ON FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY...WHILE MUCH COLDER AIR AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILD IN BEHIND IT. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR POTENTIALLY VERY STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE ENTIRE LAKE. THIS SYSTEM WARRANTS CLOSE MONITORING AS HIGH END GALES ARE APPEARING A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STORM FORCE WINDS ALSO THERE. RODRIGUEZ && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. IN...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 10 AM WEDNESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 4 AM WEDNESDAY. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 605 PM CDT Tue Oct 28 2014 .SHORT TERM...(Tonight) ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014 Cold front has moved well southeast of the region this afternoon with cooler air filtering into the Midwest. Overnight weather anticipated to be quiet and cool. Temperatures on the cooler side of guidance with clearing skies and efficient radiational cooling through the night. Though the gusts will lessen after midnight...pressure gradient winds out the of the west will stay up around 7-10 mph. Additional shortwave diving into the larger trof to the north bringing some potential low clouds into the northern portion of the state, but expected to remain scattered in Peoria and Bloomington and have a negligible impact. && .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Tuesday) ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014 Quiet weather expected overall across central and southeast Illinois for the next few days. However, conditions should trend more active toward the beginning of the next work week. Temperatures through the next week will average below normal, a change from the above normal levels seen for much of October. These cooler than normal temperatures should be at their coldest late Friday night/early Saturday morning, likely resulting in the first hard freeze of the fall locally. Northwest upper level flow will persist into the weekend, helping to keep cool conditions in place. A weak disturbance in the flow, currently over the Pacific Northwest/Southwest Canada, is progged to arrive around Thursday. The models have been generating a little rainfall with this disturbance, but the dry airmass it will be moving through should keep precipitation to a minimum. A reinforcing shot of cold air will follow Thursday`s disturbance. This, combined with a chilly Canadian surface high, will produce good radiational cooling conditions for Friday night and a likely hard freeze by early Saturday morning. A progressive ridge will build across the area by late in the weekend, providing a slight moderation in temperatures. This ridge will be followed by a wave of Pacific origin, and likely bring more widespread rain to the region by Monday into Tuesday. The models differ quite a bit in the details, but there is a hint that the precipitation threat may linger for a few days as the accompanying surface front parallels the upper flow and stalls before leaving the area. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) ISSUED AT 600 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014 VFR conditions are expected thru this forecast period (00z Thu). Some low VFR cigs skirting just to our north early this evening with some broken to overcast cirrus moving northeast into parts of central Illinois. Latest HRRR forecast indicates the stratocu deck to our north will gradually thin out and dissipate later this evening to our north while the high level clouds will shift off to our east late tonight as an upper level trof shifts across the forecast area. Forecast soundings showing some scattered cumulus developing by late morning with bases around 3500-4500 feet. Surface winds will be westerly tonight at 5 to 10 kts and west to northwest at 10 to 15 kts. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...HJS LONG TERM...Bak AVIATION...Smith
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
936 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 930 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014 EVENING UPDATE FOR SKY COVER AND OVERNIGHT TEMPS. CLOUD DECK ACROSS THE NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA HANGING ON LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...AND IS BEING MODELED WELL BY THE RAP LOW LEVEL RH PROGS. THIS MODEL MAINTAINS THE EVENING TREND OF AN EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE CLOUDS...GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. HAVE ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT TEMPS TO DAMPEN THE PREVIOUS NORTH TO SOUTH GRADIENT. IF THE OVERCAST DECK IS MAINTAINED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE NEEDED TO WARM TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTH. && .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014 CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE STRONG LOW IN SOUTHERN CANADA IS COMBINING WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION...TO BRING A BRISK FALL DAY...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES NORTH AND MOSTLY CLEAR SOUTH TO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES AT 2 PM ARE NEAR 50 NORTH AND NEAR 60 SOUTH. A 15 TO 25 MPH WIND IS MAKING IT FEEL SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014 LOOKING AT VISIBLE SATELLITE...THERE IS A DEFINITE DIURNAL CHARACTER TO THE STRATUS/STRATOCUMULUS OVER THE SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF IOWA...AND WE ARE SEEING HOLES WITH DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE DAKOTAS AS WELL. THIS DIURNAL NATURE OF THE CLOUD DECK OVER HEAD...AND THE ONE ADVECTING TOWARD THE REGION SHOULD ALLOW FOR SIGNIFICANT CLEARING BY SUNSET. MODELS SWEEP THE MAIN STRATUS DECK TO TO THE NORTH AWAY FROM THE CWA BY MIDNIGHT IN ANY CASE...THUS A MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR NIGHT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN UP AROUND 8 TO 12 MPH...HIGH ENOUGH TO KEEP US FROM DROPPING TO THE 20S...BUT NON THE LESS WE WILL BE QUITE CHILLY...WITH LOWS OF THE LOWER 30S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 37 SOUTHEAST. WEDNESDAY...AFTER A CHILLY START...WE WILL HAVE A CHILLY DAY. WHILE THE CONDITIONS SHOULD NOT BE AS BRISK AS TODAY...A MORNING WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH WILL DECREASE TOWARDS AFTERNOON TO AROUND 5 TO 10...RESULTING IN A MUCH MORE PLEASANT DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE QUITE COOL...WITH HIGHS ONLY AROUND 50 NORTH TO MID 50S FAR SOUTH. ERVIN .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014 FORECAST FOCUS ON MUCH COLDER WEATHER BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THURSDAY...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE CWA BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE QUITE DRY. THEREFORE...THIS LOOKS TO BE EITHER SPRINKLES OR ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS WITH MAINLY A TRACE EVENT AND WILL MAINTAIN THE 20 POP. FRIDAY...OPERATIONAL MODELS SIMILAR IN SHOWING A POTENT TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION NOTED. 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROP TO -9C IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES BY 12Z FRIDAY. CAN`T RULE OUT SOME FLURRIES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A PERIOD OF STRATUS CLOUDS. COLDER AIR WILL BE USHERED INTO THE CWA ON NORTH WINDS GUSTING TO 30 TO 35 MPH. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE ONLY IN THE 40S MAKING FOR A COLD AND WINDY HALLOWEEN. FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SLIDE INTO THE CWA WITH A WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZE EXPECTED AS WE FLIP THE CALENDAR TO NOVEMBER. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S AT MANY LOCATIONS. SOME COLD DRAINAGE LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY IN THE WAPSI VALLEY MAY DROP TO AROUND 20. WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY THERE WILL BE FULL SUNSHINE BUT ANOTHER COLD DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AGAIN. SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE HIGH SHIFTS WELL TO OUR EAST WITH MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE MIDWEST WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HOWEVER...LOW CONFIDENCE THIS FAR OUT IN REGARD TO TIMING/INTENSITY/PLACEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR NOW WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE IN THE 50S WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. HAASE && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014 LOW VFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO SCATTER OUT THIS EVENING WITH A WESTERLY WIND REMAINING UP IN THE 7-9 KT RANGE...THEN INCREASING AROUND 12KT WEDNESDAY MORNING. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...NONE. IL...NONE. MO...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...RP KINNEY SYNOPSIS...ERVIN SHORT TERM...ERVIN LONG TERM...HAASE AVIATION...RP KINNEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
252 PM MDT MON OCT 27 2014 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 252 PM MDT MON OCT 27 2014 UPPER FLOW WILL BE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SUBSIDENCE WILL PRODUCE DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FA THROUGH TUESDAY. POPS FOR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WILL BE NIL. RADAR RETURNS ACROSS THE FA TODAY HAVE BEEN VERY LIGHT WITH METARS REPORTING HIGH CLOUD BASES AND NO PRECIPITATION. THE HRRR SHOWS A BAND OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER AN AREA IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES THIS EVENING SO WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SPRINKLES THERE. THIS IS AN AREA WHERE THERE IS FRONTOGENESIS BUT MOISTURE IS LIMITED. THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE IF THERE WILL BE A HARD FREEZE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL DECREASE AND BECOME LIGHT FROM THE WEST ALONG WITH CLEARING. MOST OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE GIVES LOW TEMPERATURES AROUND 30 IN EASTERN COLORADO WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REST OF THE FA. THERE IS A LEAST ONE GUIDANCE THAT SHOWS TEMPERATURES AROUND 29 DEGREES IN EASTERN COLORADO AND WITH THE MET SHOWING 21 DEGREES FOR LIC, CANNOT RULE OUT A HARD FREEZE IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN COLORADO ZONES. PLAN TO UPGRADE THE FREEZE WATCH TO A WARNING IN EASTERN COLORADO AND THEN GO WITH A FROST ADVISORY ACROSS THE REST OF THE FA. SEE UPDATED HIGHLIGHTS BELOW. MAX TEMPERATURES TUESDAY SHOULD WARM TO THE LOWER 60S. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 252 PM MDT MON OCT 27 2014 FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...QUIET WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE WEEK BEFORE THE NEXT WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. MAIN CONCERNS AS IT STANDS RIGHT NOW IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS ON SATURDAY. BEGINNING WITH TUESDAY NIGHT...COLD LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN. FOR THIS NIGHT...MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE FROST ONCE AGAIN BUT LOCATIONS AROUND MCCOOK...OBERLIN AND NORTON MAY APPROACH FREEZE WARNING CRITERIA...28 DEGREES OR LESS. WITH THE CURRENT FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES OUT...WILL NOT ISSUE ADDITIONAL HAZARD HEADLINES BUT THEY MAY BE NEEDED FROM TONIGHTS SHIFT OR TOMORROWS DAY SHIFT. FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRANSLATES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...LEAVING THE REGION PRECIPITATION- FREE. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES OVER THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES INTO THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY...FORCING A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH. THIS WILL LEAD TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY. WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S BEFORE COOLING OFF THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOW DEWPOINTS SHOULD REMAIN FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM MCCOOK NEBRASKA TO TRIBUNE KANSAS...RESULTING IN RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE 15-20 PERCENT RANGE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS ARE FORECAST SO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS. THE ONLY QUESTION THAT REMAINS IS HOW ACTIVE WILL WE BE? MODELS ARE INDICATING A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND EJECTING OVER THE PLAINS BUT DISAGREE ON TIMING/MOVEMENT. WE ARE GETTING INTO THE SEASON WHERE THESE TYPES OF TROUGHS NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER DEVELOPMENT. THE CANADIAN MODEL DEVELOPS A STRONG MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE SATURDAY OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA BEFORE HEADING INTO NORTH DAKOTA. THE GFS INDICATES A SECOND...STRONGER LOBE OF ENERGY MOVING ACROSS OUR REGION WITH POTENTIAL FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION ON THE BACK SIDE. THESE TWO SOLUTIONS RAISE THE ALERT FLAG ON A POTENTIAL SECOND SNOW OF THE YEAR. GLANCING AT THE TEMPERATURES...IT APPEARS TOO WARM FOR SNOW AT THIS TIME. THE EUROPEAN MODEL INDICATES A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS WELL...BUT WELL TO THE NORTH... BEGINNING IN COLORADO/WYOMING BEFORE MOVING NORTH TOWARDS CANADA. NEEDLESS TO SAY...THIS SYSTEM NEEDS TO BE MONITORED BUT FORECAST GUIDANCE VARIANCE IS TOO GREAT TO MAKE ANY DEFINITIVE PREDICTIONS ON WHETHER A LARGER SYSTEM IMPACTS THE TRI-STATE AREA. ONE THING ALL GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS SATURDAY. WITH A DEEP LEE TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT...A RESULTANT STRENGTHENING OF THE WIND FIELD IS GUARANTEED. THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE WINDS AND SHOW POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTS...POSSIBLY 45-55 MPH. WIND FIELDS AT 1 KM AND 700 MB INDICATE THERE COULD BE SOME GUSTS EVEN STRONGER BUT WAS NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PLACE MENTION OF THIS IN PRODUCTS YET. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT MON OCT 27 2014 VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KGLD AND KMCK FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. METARS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME BROKEN CLOUDS AROUND 7KFT THIS AFTERNOON AS DYNAMICS FROM THE UPPER TROUGH MOVE THROUGH. OTHERWISE CLEARING IS EXPECTED AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT MDT /1 AM CDT/ TONIGHT TO 10 AM MDT /11 AM CDT/ TUESDAY FOR KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042. CO...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM MDT TUESDAY FOR COZ090>092. NE...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT MDT /1 AM CDT/ TONIGHT TO 10 AM MDT /11 AM CDT/ TUESDAY FOR NEZ079>081. && $$ SHORT TERM...FS LONG TERM...RRH AVIATION...FS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1151 PM MDT SUN OCT 26 2014 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 205 PM MDT SUN OCT 26 2014 EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW RIDGE CENTERED OVER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND TROUGH BUILDING SOUTH INTO THE WESTERN US. SW FLOW IS IN PLACE OVR THE CENTRAL ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER OUR CWA. AT THE SURFACE COLD FRONT IS MOVING OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO WITH A WARM FRONT OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA. SURFACE TROUGH HAS SHIFTED EAST WITH LIGHT NW LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS OUR CWA. PRECIP TONIGHT-MONDAY...GUIDANCE SHOWING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT FROM NW TO SE THROUGH SUNRISE. MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY WITH BETTER FORCING OVER OUR CWA ALONG THE SOUTHERN AXIS OF THIS TROUGH BETWEEN THE MID-MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON PERIOD. LIMITING FACTOR FOR PRECIPITATION TONIGHT AND MONDAY CONTINUES TO BE A VERY DRY AIR MASS THAT WILL HAVE TO BE OVERCOME FOR ANY PRECIPITATION TO REACH THE GROUND. BY MIDDAY MONDAY SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE A SATURATED LAYER WITHIN 4-8KFT AGL...HOWEVER THERE IS STILL A DRY LAYER BELOW THIS WITH TD DEPRESSIONS 30-40F. THERE IS SOME WEAK INSTABILITY WITHIN THIS LAYER...WHICH COULD SUPPORT A FEW MODERATE SHOWERS...WHICH COULD REACH THE SURFACE AS MEASURABLE RAINFALL. SEEMS LIKELY WE WILL SEE VIRGA AND MAYBE SCATTERED SPRINKLES...AND ONLY ISOLATED 0.01-0.05" AMOUNTS OUT OF THIS EVENT. KEPT NW TO SE TIMING FROM 06Z TONIGHT THROUGH MID AFTERNOON MONDAY...LIMITING POPS TO 20 BASED ON LIMITED CONFIDENCE ON MEASURABLE PRECIP. WIND/RH THIS AFTERNOON-MONDAY...LOW SURFACE TD VALUES ALREADY ADVECTING EAST HAVE ALLOWED RH VALUES TO DROP TO NEAR 15 PERCENT...HOWEVER WITH WINDS ALREADY BACKING OFF AND STRONGER GUSTS (20-25KT) LIMITED TO THE FAR NW WHERE IS HIGHER RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY. SURFACE TD WILL CONTINUE TO DROP THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...HOWEVER WITH COOLING AIR MASS AND HIGHS IN THE 50S/60S RH VALUES WILL NOT DROP TO NECESSARY LEVELS FOR RED FLAG WARNING. WINDS ON THE OTHER HAND WILL INCREASE AS COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH...AND WITH MIXING TO AROUND 800MB WE SHOULD SEE GUSTS 30-40 MPH MONDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. ADVISORY CRITERIA IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED BASED ON CURRENT GFS/NAM MIXING HEIGHTS/850-775MB WINDS. IF WE WERE TO MIX TO 700MB MAYBE WE COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS IN THE 45-48 MPH RANGE...HOWEVER THE WOULD BE MOST LIKELY WITH VIRGA/LIGHT SHOWERS AND NOT A WIDESPREAD THREAT. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 205 PM MDT SUN OCT 26 2014 UPPER FLOW WILL BE NORTHWEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THIS TIME. SUBSIDENCE AND LACK OF MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DYNAMICS FROM THE EXITING TROUGH SHOULD BE OUTSIDE OF THE FA BY MONDAY EVENING. POPS WILL BE NIL THROUGH THIS PART OF THE FORECAST. FROST POTENTIAL LOOKS GOOD FOR MONDAY NIGHT WITH A HARD FREEZE POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST KANSAS...WEST OF HIGHWAY 27. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR FROST AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT BUT A HARD FREEZE IS NOT EXPECTED SINCE TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS COLD. PLAN ON ISSUING A FREEZE WATCH FOR LATE MONDAY NIGHT IN COORDINATION WITH BOU AND PUB OFFICES. SEE DETAILS BELOW. MIN TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 20S WEST OF HIGHWAY 27 WITH LOWER TO MID 30S EAST ACROSS THE KANSAS ZONES. MIN TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE MID 30S. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE LOWER 60S. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 70S ARE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY. IN THE EXTENDED...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)... DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FA THROUGH SUNDAY AS A RIDGE BUILDS EAST FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS. BY SUNDAY UPPER FLOW TURNS SOUTHWEST AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTH PLAINS. SINCE MOISTURE IS TOO FAR NORTH CHANCES ARE VERY SLIM FOR ANYTHING MEASURABLE IN THE FA. CONSEQUENTLY, POPS WILL BE NIL SUNDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL WARM TO THE LOWER 70S BY SUNDAY AS 850 TEMPERATURES WARM TO AROUND 20C. MIN TEMPERATURES IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S WILL WARM TO THE LOWER 40S BY SATURDAY NIGHT. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1147 PM MDT SUN OCT 26 2014 CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT MCK AND GLD. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST AND INCREASE FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION. EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME GUSTY BETWEEN 08Z- 10Z...INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING...AND CONTINUE THROUGH 23Z- 01Z MONDAY AFTERNOON. ALSO EXPECT A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR VIRGA TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY...BUT HAVE NOT INCLUDED THEM IN THE TAF AS THEY WILL NOT BE A PREVAILING CONDITION. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR KSZ001-013-027. CO...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR COZ090>092. NE...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR NEZ079. && $$ SHORT TERM...DR LONG TERM...FS AVIATION...LOCKHART
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
1145 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS.../ISSUED AT 418 PM/ STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN ONTARIO WILL LIFT INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE LOW WILL DRAW COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL BE QUITE GUSTY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUING WEDNESDAY. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES BY HALLOWEEN MORNING...SENDING TEMPERATURES PLUNGING AND BRINGING A ROUND OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. && .SHORT TERM.../ISSUED AT 418 PM/...TONIGHT WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH A PROMINENT DRY SLOT BRINGING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...DEEP WRAP- AROUND MOISTURE AND COLDER AIR INTO UPPER MI AND NRN WI WITH 850 MB TEMPS IN THE -1C TO -3C RANGE WAS MOVING TOWARD THE AREA. TONIGHT...EXPECT CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY INCREASE INTO THIS EVENING...PER SATELLITE TRENDS AND MODELS 900-850 MB RH FCST. AS THE COLDER AIR AND DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVE AFT 06Z WITH 850/700 TEMPS DROPPING TO NEAR -4C/-10C...SCT/NMRS LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS FAVORED BY UPSLOPE WRLY FLOW. OVER ERN UPPER MI...WITH WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS FALLING BELOW 1400 FT AGL...A MIX WITH SNOW WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. CLOUDS AND PERSISTENT WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING OFF TOO FAR WITH MIN READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S INLAND AND LOWER 40S CLOSER TO THE GREAT LAKES. WEDNESDAY...PCPN CHANCES PEAK BY MID MORNING WITH COVERAGE DIMINISHING DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE 700 MB THERMAL TROUGH DEPARTS ALONG WITH THE MORE FAVORABLE 850/700 MB MOISTURE AND A WEAK SFC RIDGE BUILDS IN. UNDER CLOUDY SKIES...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY REACH THE MID TO UPPER 40S. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 352 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014 ...MUCH COLDER WEATHER WITH A POSSIBLE MINOR SNOWFALL TO CLOSE OUT OCTOBER... WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...A RELATIVELY TRANQUIL START TO THE FORECAST PERIOD IS EXPECTED AS THE AREA SITS UNDER A BENIGN REGION OF A BROAD MID-LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC. AN INACTIVE UPPER-LEVEL JET PATTERN COMBINED WITH MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES DO NOT SUPPORT ANY LARGE-SCALE LIFT THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...LAKE-H8 DELTA TEMPS OF 12 TO 14C WILL SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LINGERING LAKE EFFECT PRECIP OFF LAKE MI FOR THE NW WIND BELTS. LOW-LEVEL TEMPS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL RAIN INITIALLY IN THE EVENING...BUT A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL CAA AND LOWERING SFC WET BULB TEMPS. THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE SAME...THOUGH ANY SNOW SHOULD TRANSITION BACK TO RAIN FOR ALL AREAS WITH DAYTIME HEATING. OVERALL...IT WILL JUST BE A CLOUDY DAY WITH WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 40S. THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE WEATHER WILL BE IN THE WORKS BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG MID-LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL REACH WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AROUND 03Z FRIDAY AS A SFC LOW BEGINS DEVELOPING OVER THE CWA. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN HOW THE MODELS HANDLE THIS DEVELOPMENT. THE ECMWF SHOWS A STRONGER TROUGH...AND THUS A QUICKER DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW OVER THE STRAITS. THE MODEL SOLUTIONS DO BEGIN TO CONVERGE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH A 1009 MB LOW JUST NORTH OF LAKE ERIE AND A 1035 MB HIGH ACROSS MN. VERY STRONG MID-LEVEL Q-VECTOR CONV PAIRED WITH A POTENT UPPER-LEVEL PV ANOMALY WILL SUPPORT DEEP LIFT ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY MORNING. CONTINUED STRONG LOW-LEVEL CAA AND MID-LEVEL COOLING WILL BRING WET-BULB ZERO TEMPS TO UNDER 1KFT AGL BY 09Z FRI ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND 12Z FRI NEAR THE SHORES. WITH THAT SAID...ACCUMULATING SNOW APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS AT LEAST THE HIGH TERRAIN FRIDAY MORNING. AMPLE LIFT WITHIN THE DGZ WILL SUPPORT DECENT SNOW RATIOS AND MODERATE SNOWFALL RATES. GIVEN THE TIME OF DAY...SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME WARMER ROAD SFC TEMPS AND RESULT IN SOME SLUSH ON LESS TRAVELED ROADS. OVERALL...AROUND AN INCH OF WET SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH A DUSTING POSSIBLY REACHING THE SHORELINES. TO ADD TO THE PRECIP...THE STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS THOUGH THE DAY. THE GRADIENT FLOW WILL BE ASSISTED BY A STRONG ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT DUE TO THE DEEPENING LOW OVER THE AREA. WIDESPREAD 15 TO 25 MPH WINDS LOOK POSSIBLE...WITH SOME GUIDANCE INDICATING GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35 MPH DURING THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL EXIT DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS LOWER MI. FOCUS TURNS TO LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL AS H8 TEMPS AROUND -10C PRODUCE DELTA TEMPS OF AT LEAST 15C. DUE NORTH WINDS THROUGH H8 SHOULD KEEP ALL BUT THE FAR WEST AND FAR EAST CWA CLEAR OF ANY APPRECIABLE LAKE-EFFECT RAIN/SNOW. FRIDAY NIGHT THOUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE SFC HIGH OVER MN FRIDAY WILL REACH THE CWA BY SATURDAY EVENING. AN INFLUX OF MUCH DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR WILL CUTOFF LAKE EFFECT PRECIP FRIDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY NIGHT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE QUITE CHILLY DEPENDING ON HOW QUICK LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS EXIT THE AREA. AM NOT CONFIDENT ON WIDESPREAD CLEARING...BUT SOME AREAS SHOULD SEE ENOUGH REDUCTION IN CLOUD COVER TO ALLOW FOR RAPID COOLING LATE IN THE NIGHT. GIVEN STARTING TEMPS IN THE 30S ON FRIDAY...SHOULD SEE LOWS WELL INTO THE 20S INLAND. IMPROVING CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE SFC RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE CWA AND A MID-LEVEL RIDGE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. SATURDAY NIGHT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE ANOTHER COLD NIGHT...BUT LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL COMMENCE OVERNIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SFC RIDGE. SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE WORKS OVER THE CWA BY SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING QUIET CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MAY BE ENOUGH TO INDUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA...BUT FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS BY WAY OF A JET AXIS AND H5 TROUGH AXIS STAY TO THE NORTHWEST. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1145 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014 AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL WRAP BACK INTO NRN MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS A REINFORCING COLD FRONT SWEEPS THRU THE AREA. PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERIODICALLY DROP TO MVFR AS SCT/NMRS LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS IMPACT NW LWR MICHIGAN TAF SITES OVERNIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY. W/SW WINDS GUSTING TO 15 TO 25 KTS OVERNIGHT WILL SHIFT TO THE NW ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. && .MARINE.../ISSUED AT 418 PM/ ALTHOUGH PEAK WINDS SHOULD REMAIN JUST SHY OF GALE CRITERIA FOR MOST AREAS TONIGHT...THOUGH AS IS TYPICAL IN THESE SITUATIONS...A COUPLE OF GALE GUSTS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE AT TIMES. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE WATERS. THOSE LIGHT WINDS CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY BUT WITH ANOTHER BURST OF HIGHER WINDS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS SOME VERY COLD AIR DROPS INTO THE REGION. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LHZ345-346-349. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LHZ347-348. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ323-341. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ342-344>346. LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ322. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ321. && $$ AVIATION...MR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1257 AM EDT MON OCT 27 2014 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014 12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW UPR RDG OVER CENTRAL NAMERICA BLDG TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LKS BTWN SLOWLY DEPARTING CLOSED LO OVER SE CANADA AND ANOTHER DEEP TROF OVER THE W. AT THE SFC...HI PRES RDG AXIS AND DRY AIRMASS SHOWN ON THE 12Z INL/MPX RAOBS...WHERE 12Z PWAT WAS 0.25-0.30 INCH...ARE PRESSING EWD THRU THE UPR LKS...BRINGING MOSUNNY SKIES TO UPR MI. SOME SC LINGERS OVER THE FAR E UNDER LLVL NW FLOW/THERMAL TROF AHEAD OF THE RDG AXIS... AND SOME CI SPILLING OVER THE UPR RDG AXIS TO THE NE OF H85 WARM FNT IN THE NRN PLAINS IS MOVING INTO THE W. DEEPENING SFC LO PRES IS MOVING SLOWLY E THRU THE NRN PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF THE WRN TROF...BUT OVERALL DRYNESS OF THE AIRMASS IN THE NRN PLAINS HAS PREVENTED ANY PCPN AND EVEN MUCH CLD COVER SO FAR. 12Z H85 TEMPS WERE AOA 20C IN THE NCENTRAL PLAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS LO. MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUSED ON CLD/PCPN TRENDS ASSOCIATED WITH APRCHG WARM FNT. TNGT WL START OFF MAINLY CLEAR WITH JUST SOME SCT HI CLDS...BUT THEN CLDS WL THICKEN THRU THE NGT WITH DVLPG WAD BTWN HI PRES RDG DEPARTING TO THE E AND LO PRES MOVING TOWARD LK WINNIPEG AND NE OF ATTENDANT WARM FNT MOVING NE THRU WI. ALTHOUGH LINGERING LLVL DRY AIR AND PASSAGE OF SHARPER H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC TO THE NW MAY TEND TO LIMIT POPS...FCST DEEP ISENTROPIC ASCENT WITH VIGOROUS H85-5 MOISTENING LIFTING PWAT TOWARD ARND AN INCH OR 225 PCT OF NORMAL OVER THE W BY 12Z MON...BAND OF FCST H85-7 FGEN TO THE NE OF THE H85 WARM FNT AND INCRSG UPR DVGC JUSTIFY BUMPING POPS UP A BIT OVER THE W HALF LATE. BUT OVERALL INITIAL DRYNESS OF THE AIRMASS WARRANTS A FCST OF NO HIER THAN HI CHC POPS. MAINTAINED MENTION OF SOME THUNDER OVER THE W LATER AT NGT...WHEN MID LVL LAPSE RATES ARE FCST TO STEEPEN AND FCST SDNGS INDICATE MUCAPE UP TO 500 J/KG. THE STEEPER MID LVL LAPSE RATES FCST ARE REASONABLE GIVEN THE VERY HI H85 TEMPS OBSVD IN THE PLAINS TODAY. DESPITE THE EXPECTED INCRSG CLDS/MSTR... DRYNESS OF THE AIRMASS IN PLACE SUGGESTS LOWERING FCST LO TEMPS A BIT. EXPECT THE LOWEST MIN TEMPS TOWARD THE LO END OF GUIDANCE OVER THE INTERIOR E...WHERE CLDS WL INCRS LATEST. HOURLY TEMPS FCST WL SHOW RELATIVELY EARLY MINS WITH RISING READINGS LATER TNGT UNDER THE INCRSG/THICKENING CLDS. MON...INCRSD POPS TO LIKELY ON MON MRNG OVER THE E HALF WHERE MODELS SHOW INCRSG UPR DVGC/BAND OF H85-7 FGEN AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT COINCIDENT WITH INCRSG PWAT UP TO ABOUT 215 PCT OF NORMAL. MODEL FCST SDNGS INDICATE MUCAPE 500-1000 J/KG WHEN LIFTING FM ARND H8 ON MON. GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF THIS ELEVATED INSTABILITY...NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THERE COULD BE SOME HAIL UNDER ANY STRONGER STORM. ARRIVAL OF DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC/MID LVL DRYING AND CAPPING W-E IN THE AFTN FOLLOWING EXIT OF THE UPR DVGC/FGEN BAND WL DIMINISH THE POPS. TENDED TOWARD THE LO END OF GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS ON MON GIVEN HI SFC-H85 STABILITY/CLDS N OF SFC WARM FNT. ADDED A MENTION OF SOME FOG LATE IN THE DAY OVER THE CENTRAL WITH INCRSGLY MOIST UPSLOPE LLVL SE FLOW UNDER MID LVL DRYING IN ADVANCE OF SLOWLY APRCHG WARM FNT. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014 THE FORECAST FOR MON NIGHT/TUE REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN DUE TO MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY /AND RESULTING CYCLOGENESIS/ ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. THE REAL DIFFERENCES ARE DUE TO THE PLACEMENT OF THE SHORTWAVE. THE GFS KEEPS THE BEST ENERGY FARTHER N...RESULTING IN THE DRY SLOT BEING OVER THE CWA MUCH OF MON NIGHT AND TUE. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE NAM IS MUCH FARTHER S...RESULTING IN A DEEPER SFC LOW THAT MOVES FROM CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN TO ERN UPPER MI...WHICH MEAN MORE RAIN. THE ECMWF IS BETWEEN THE NAM AND GFS AND ONLY BRINGS THE DRY SLOT INTO FAR SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...RESULTING IN A WETTER FORECAST THAN THE GFS. VERY DIFFICULT TO LEAN TOO FAR ONE WAY OR ANOTHER AT THIS POINT GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND SFC CYCLOGENESIS...SO WILL GO WITH A CONSENSUS BLEND. ADDITIONALLY...TUE WILL END UP BEING GUSTY...BUT THE EXTENT OF SUCH DEPENDS LARGELY ON THE TRACK/STRENGTH OF THE SFC LOW...SO HARD TO GET TOO SPECIFIC ON EXPECTED GUSTS AT THIS POINT. THE KEWEENAW SHOULD SEE THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER UPPER MI DUE TO THE FAVORABLE WLY WINDS DIRECTION. TUE NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT...THE SYSTEM THAT MOVED THROUGH ON TUE WILL MOVE INTO NRN QUEBEC BY LATE WED AS A SFC RIDGE MOVES TO THE WRN CWA. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IMPROVES DURING THIS TIME AS CONDITIONS TRANSITION TO A MORE FAVORABLE LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED RAIN/SNOW SETUP...WHICH ENTAILS LESS MODEL VARIABILITY IN THIS CASE. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NW...BUT WILL START TO BACK TO THE W /FROM W TO E/ ON WED AFTERNOON AS THE RIDGE MOVES IN. THERE WILL BE AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM INTO WED MORNING...BUT DRIER AIR WILL START TO BECOME MORE DOMINANT ON WED. AS FOR TEMPS...850MB TEMPS WILL FALL FROM AROUND -2C AT 00Z WED TO AROUND -6C AT 12Z WED. DURING THE DAY ON WED...850MB TEMPS WILL FALL A COUPLE OF DEGREES OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR WHILE WARMING A COUPLE OF DEGREES OVER THE WRN LAKE. OVERALL...LOOKS LIKE A GOOD SETUP FOR LAKE EFFECT RAIN...WITH SNOW BECOMING MORE LIKELY IN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN LATE TUE NIGHT AND TO A LESSER EXTENT ON WED. SHOULD SEE A DIMINISHING TREND TO PRECIP ON WED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WRN CWA. DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY FOR LATE IN THE WEEK GIVEN POOR MODEL RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY AND MODEL DISAGREEMENT...COMBINED WITH THE USUAL CAVEATS WITH SHORTWAVES 5 DAYS OUT. THE GFS BRINGS THE SHORTWAVE RIGHT ACROSS THE CWA...WHILE THE ECMWF MOVES THE SHORTWAVE FARTHER SW. IN ANY CASE...MODELS HAVE SHOWN POOR RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY WITH THE SHORTWAVE ITSELF...SO SYNOPTIC PRECIP IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THANKFULLY...THERE IS HIGHER CONFIDENCE WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW DUE TO MODEL AGREEMENT ON NNW LOW LEVEL WINDS AND 850MB TEMPS AOB -10C FOR MUCH OF FRI AND POSSIBLY INTO FRI NIGHT. THE LES SHOULD RAMP UP THU NIGHT WHEN THE COLDER AIR SURGES INTO THE AREA /DEPENDENT ON SHORTWAVE TIMING AS WELL/ AND SHOULD DIMINISH FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AS A SFC RIDGE MAY SHIFT ACROSS THE CWA. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS IN NNW WIND SNOWBELTS EVEN IF THE SHORTWAVE DOES NOT DIRECTLY IMPACT THE CWA...BUT WOULD BE GREATER IF THE SHORTWAVE DOES IMPACT THE AREA. SHOULD ALSO BE WINDY FOR AT LEAST A SHORT PERIOD THU NIGHT INTO FRI /DEPENDING ON THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE/ AS A 1030MB SFC HIGH MOVES FROM THE WNW FAIRLY QUICKLY BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE. SHOULD SEE A QUICK PERIOD OF GALES FROM THE EVENT...BUT WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL THINGS BECOME MORE CERTAIN TO GET TOO SPECIFIC ON WINDS SPEEDS. SHOULD SEE ANY REMAINING LAKE EFFECT PRECIP DIE OUT/MOVE OUT ON SAT AS MODELS SHOW THE SFC HIGH SHIFT E OF THE CWA. WILL RUN WITH A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...WHICH WILL SHOW A WARMING TREND AS AN UPPER RIDGE PUSHES IN FROM THE W. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1257 AM EDT MON OCT 27 2014 WELL IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT...SCT-NMRS SHRA WILL SPREAD INTO THE UPPER LAKES OVERNIGHT. SOME TSTMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED...BUT POTENTIAL OF TSTMS OCCURRING AT ANY OF THE TERMINALS CONTINUES TO BE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN FCST. INITIALLY...VFR CONDITIONS AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW UNDER VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL DELAY DEVELOPMENT OF LOWER CIGS...BUT AS INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR FLOWS INTO THE AREA...EXPECT CIGS TO FALL TO MVFR TODAY AND THEN TO IFR THIS EVENING. SHRA WILL CONTINUE TO BE SCATTERED AROUND THE AREA THRU THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING. FINALLY...MAINTAINED MENTION OF LLWS AT KIWD OVERNIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL JET NOSES INTO WRN UPPER MI BEFORE DECREASING SOMEWHAT AS IT SHIFTS E. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014 HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL LEAD TO DECREASING WINDS TODAY. AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD WITH WINDS LESS THAN 20 KTS WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE...SE WINDS INCREASE TO 30 KTS OVER MAINLY EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR ON MONDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. ONCE THIS LOW MOVES TO THE EAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR ON TUESDAY...WEST WINDS TO 30 KTS AND POSSIBLY UP TO GALE FORCE OF 35 KTS WILL DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT NORTHWEST AND STAY UP TO 30 KTS INTO WEDNESDAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 25 KTS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK...POSSIBLY LEADING TO GALES TO 35 KTS. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KC LONG TERM...TITUS AVIATION...ROLFSON MARINE...TITUS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS DULUTH MN
717 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 717 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014 MAJOR DEEP-LAYER CYCLOGENESIS IS WELL UNDERWAY THIS EVENING TO THE NORTHEAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR. 500 MB LOW HAS NOW TRANSLATED EAST OF THE DLH CWA /CENTERED NEAR LAKE NIPIGON AS OF 00Z/..AND BENT-BACK INVERTED SURFACE TROF THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROWAL REGION OF THIS CYCLONE IS STARTING TO COLLAPSE TO THE SOUTHEAST. IR SATELLITE AND CANADIAN RADAR DATA IS NOW INDICATING THAT THE FAR WESTERN EDGE OF THE LARGE SCALE DEFORMATION ZONE OVER MUCH OF ONTARIO IS SAGGING SOUTHWARD AT AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH..AND WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT LIFT/COOLING TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW WITH THIS PRECIP BAND AS IT AFFECTS AREAS GENERALLY EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 53 CORRIDOR. WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR THINGS RATHER CLOSELY THIS EVENING..AS THERE IS AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SLUSHY INCHES OF ACCUMULATION IN A FEW PLACES DURING THE MAX INTENSITY OF PRECIP..WHCIH SHOULD OCCUR ROUGHLY BETWEEN 8 PM AND 2 AM. ELSEWHERE FARTHER SOUTH..THERE HAVE BEEN MANY REPORTS OF LIGHT SNOW MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN FOR SHORT PERIODS OF TIME ACROSS THE SW TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA. KDLH CC/ZDR DATA SUGGESTS THAT THE AMBIENT FREEZING LEVEL IS ONLY A FEW HUNDRED FEET AGL..AND IT APPEARS AS THOUGH ANY SMALL SCALE ENHANCEMENT TO PRECIP RATES IS SUFFICIENT TO RESULT IN LOCAL DIABATIC COOLING UNDERNEATH SMALL SCALE HEAVIER SHOWERS TO ALLOW A MIX OR ALL SNOW TO REACH THE GROUND. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS LOBE OF RADAR ECHOES TRANSLATES ESEWD. HOWEVER..WITH SURFACE TEMPS IN THE MID 30S/RELATIVELY WEAK SNOWFALL RATES..AND WARM AMBIENT GROUND TEMPS..ABOUT ALL THE ACCUMULATION THAT IS EXPECTED IN AREAS FARTHER SOUTH IS SOME CRUSTING ON VEHICLES AND OTHER ELEVATED AND EXPOSED SURFACES. WE HAVE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST TO REFLECT THE MORE SNOWY SOLUTION ACROSS THE NORTH..ALONG WITH HIGHER POPS AND SIGHTLY COLDER TEMPS. UPDATES ARE ALREADY AVAILABLE. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014 TONIGHT...THE LARGE SCALE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP SFC/MID LVL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL KEEP A CANOPY OF LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIP OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT. AS MID LVL LOW MIGRATES EAST...THE SFC TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTH FROM ONTARIO THIS EVENING. PTYPE WILL TRANSITION TO A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW AND PERHAPS A PERIOD OF WET SNOW. VERY TOUGH TO DETERMINE POTENTIAL AMOUNTS THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS IS DUE TO THE MARGINAL BDRY LYR THERMAL PROFILES AND DEPENDENCY OF DIABATIC COOLING/SNOW PRODUCTION UPON AREAS OF ENHANCED VERTICAL MOTION. HI-RES PTYPE OUTPUT FROM HRRR IS RATHER SLOW TO MAKE THE TRANSITION TO FROZEN PRECIP OVERNIGHT. THE NAM12/RUC13 ARE FASTER IN COOLING THE NEAR SFC LAYER SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT THAT GREAT. GIVEN THAT SNOW HAS BEEN OCCURRING JUST WEST OF THE REGION DURING THE DIURNAL WARM PERIOD...WOULD THINK THAT WITH ADVENT OF NOCTURNAL BDRY LYR COOLING...WE SHOULD SEE THE TRANSITION OCCUR IN MOST OF NE MN ZONES BY MID/LATE EVENING. SOME LOCATIONS MAY SEE UP TO AN INCH ON ELEVATED DECKS OR GRASSY SURFACES. THE PROBABILISTIC PRODUCTS FROM SREF AND NARRE-TL FAVOR THE ARROWHEAD AND THE GOGEBIC RANGE FOR SOME ACCUMULATION. GUSTY WINDS WILL REMAIN BASED ON BUFKIT MOMENTUM PROFILES SUPPORTED BY THE PRESENCE OF A FAIRLY LARGE SFC PRESS GRADIENT OVER THE CWA UNTIL EARLY MORNING. TOMORROW...GRADUAL CLEARING OCCURS FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE SFC/MID LVL LOWS SHIFT WELL EAST OF THE REGION. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER DRYING IS FCST...MAJORITY OF NWP SUGGESTS RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN A SHALLOW LAYER NEAR 2K TO 3K FT. WILL MAINTAIN A MOSTLY CLOUDY FCST FOR NOW. PRECIP SHOULD EVENTUALLY DIMINISH EXCEPT OVER ERN EDGE OF CWA. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014 A WEAK MID LEVEL S/W AND ASSOCIATED INVERTED SFC TROUGH WILL TRACK EWD THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST WED NIGHT/THUR MORNING AND PRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW THROUGH THE REGION. A MORE POTENT UPPER S/W WILL DROP IN FROM THE NORTH AND USHER IN ADDITIONAL HIGHER CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS THUR AFTERNOON...EVENTUALLY CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW THUR NIGHT AND FRI MORNING. THE TRACK OF THE LOW...FROM NRN MANITOBA SEWD THROUGH WRN ONTARIO AND INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES WILL ALLOW THE BULK OF THE PRECIP TO FALL ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE LARGE SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE WILL OCCUR OVER WRN ONTARIO...CLIPPING THE ARROWHEAD AND IN THROUGH NRN WI AND EWD INTO THE U.P. OF MICH. A SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION AS THE S/W MOVES THROUGH AND MODIFIES THERMAL PROFILES ENOUGH TO CHANGE THE RAIN SHOWERS OVER TO SNOW LATE THURSDAY...AND ESPECIALLY THUR NIGHT/FRI MORNING. COULD SEE AROUND 1 INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATE OVER THE ARROWHEAD...WITH TRACE AMTS AROUND THE TWIN PORTS. THE AREA EXPECTING TO SEE THE MOST WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ACROSS THE SNOW BELT REGION OF ASHLAND AND IRON COUNTIES WHERE LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL ALLOW A QUICK 1-2 INCHES TO FALL DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FAVORABLE NORTH WINDS AND STEEP/MOIST BL LAPSE RATES WILL ALL CONTRIBUTE TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER SNOW AMTS IN THIS AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN QUICKLY FROM THE WEST ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST DURING THE REST OF THE DAY FRIDAY AND FURTHER EWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES FRI NIGHT/SAT MORNING. ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS HIGH...A SWLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE REGION AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE ROCKIES DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. WILL START TO SEE THE INFLUENCE FROM THIS NEXT SYSTEM FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN. THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SLIGHTLY EARLY IN THE PERIOD...AND THEN WARM GRADUALLY THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL DROP INTO THE 30S...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND SLIGHTLY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 40S AND LOWS IN THE 30S. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 717 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014 WRAP AROUND PRECIP/CLOUDS AND WEAKENING DEFORMATION ZONE BEHIND DEPARTING CYCLONE WILL ROTATE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE DULUTH TAF SITES THIS EVENING..WHILE GRADUALLY WEAKENING OVERNIGHT. LIGHT RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL AFFECT KDLH/KHYR/KBRD FOR THE FIRST 4-6 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. A MORE SUSTAINED BAND OF SNOW WILL AFFECT KINL THROUGH 07Z..AND MAY SAG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO AFFECT KHIB. PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY END 06-12Z TIME FRAME AT ALL TAF SITES..AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY AFTER 12Z AS PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. HOWEVER..BKN-OVC MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 33 41 33 43 / 70 20 10 20 INL 31 39 30 40 / 70 20 10 30 BRD 31 43 33 47 / 30 10 10 10 HYR 34 44 32 47 / 50 10 10 30 ASX 35 44 33 47 / 70 30 10 30 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...NONE. WI...NONE. LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ121- 146>148. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ144-145. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ140>143. && $$ UPDATE...MILLER SHORT TERM...CANNON LONG TERM...HUYCK AVIATION...MILLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
949 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 949 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014 CLOUD CONTINUE TO CLEAR SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST. UPDATED SKY GRIDS TO KEEP CLOUDS ACROSS THE EAST MOST OF THE NIGHT. WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED IN THE WEST...TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN QUICKLY INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES HERE. STILL MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG CENTRAL AS STRATUS CLEARS WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES REMAINING. UPDATE ISSUED AT 649 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014 STRATUS DECK CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING. THE SOUTHWEST HAS CLEARED WITH NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL EXPECTED TO CLEAR WEST TO EAST THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. KEPT A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STRATUS DECK LATER TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014 CLOUD TRENDS THROUGH TONIGHT AND A WARMER DAY ON WEDNESDAY HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. THE RAP AND HRRR HAVE HANDLED THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS WELL THROUGHOUT TODAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND WILL FOLLOW THEIR MOST RECENT ITERATIONS FOR CLOUD COVER THROUGH TONIGHT...NAMELY THEIR 18-19 UTC RUNS. STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY ERODE FAR SOUTHWEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON...NOT CLEARING THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY UNTIL CLOSER TO 12 UTC WEDNESDAY MORNING. DID ADD AREAS OF FOG ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STRATUS WHERE WINDS BECOME CALM. WILL ALSO CONTINUE THE PATCHY DRIZZLE MENTION DOWNSTREAM OF LAKE SAKAKAWEA EARLY THIS EVENING WITH STREAMERS CONTINUING TO COME OFF THE LAKE. RETURN FLOW COMMENCES TONIGHT ACROSS THE WEST AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA. THIS FRONT WILL PROPAGATE THROUGH THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 50S...WITH POSSIBLY A FEW READINGS IN THE 60S ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT...GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AREA WIDE AS A WEAK IMPULSE INTERACTS WITH THE FRONT. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014 A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS A SLOW MODERATING TREND GETS UNDERWAY...FOLLOWED BY A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. MUCH COLDER AIR CAN BE EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL. A HEADLINE MAY BE WARRANTED IN THE FUTURE IF THE SNOW/WINDS MAINTAIN CONSISTENCY IN FUTURE RUNS. AN EXITING LOW PRESSURE WEDNESDAY EVENING OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WILL PROVIDE FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY BEFORE ENDING. THEREAFTER...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DOMINATE WITH A DRY PATTERN...SHIFTING FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THURSDAY INTO NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY NIGHT...AND THEN EAST OF NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY. THE WARMEST POCKET OF AIR SLIDES THROUGH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT VIA A SOUTHWEST FLOW...AHEAD OF A SHARP COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM WHICH PASSES THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. IN DOING SO...EXPECT A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE UPPER/SURFACE LOW SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...TAKING IT ON A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TRACK FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND THEN ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA. THE GEM TAKES A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK...MOVING IT FROM SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA RESULTING IN A MORE BROAD/WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EVENT. ALL SOLUTIONS HOWEVER SHOW STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW SUNDAY INTO MONDAY IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS. REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN BLOWING/FALLING SNOW MAY BE THE GREATEST IMPACT AND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED IN FUTURE RUNS FOR POSSIBLE HEADLINES. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 949 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014 MVFR TO LOW VFR STRATUS HAS CLEARED AT KISN AND KDIK EARLY THIS EVENING. BACK EDGE WILL SLOWLY ERODE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STRATUS. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...TWH SHORT TERM...AYD LONG TERM...KS AVIATION...TWH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1244 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014 .AVIATION... 18Z TAFS...WIND SHIFT WITH COLD FRONT OCCURRED EARLIER THIS MORNING AT WWR AND GAG. THE FRONT IS MAKING DECENT PROGRESS TO THE SOUTHEAST...ESPECIALLY IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. CURRENT HRRR WAS FOLLOWED FOR COLD FRONT TIMING...WHICH MAY BE AN HOUR OR SO SLOW. WIND SHIFT AT OKC/OUN SHOULD BE AROUND 23-00Z. HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST WITHIN A 70-100KT FLOW. BEST CHANCE FOR ELEVATED SHOWERS/STORMS LATER THIS EVENING IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA (OKC/OUN TAFS). && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2014/ DISCUSSION... AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS IS BELOW. AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT A BAND/LINE OF -SHRA WILL AFFECT KOKC AND KOUN 20-22Z...AS WELL AS POSSIBLY KLAW...KPNC...KHBR... AND KHBR 17-21Z. THUS...ADDED MENTION. GUSTY WINDS MAY OCCUR WITH -SHRA. TS IS POSSIBLE AS WELL BUT DID NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND BRING A WIND SHIFT FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTH. THIS FRONT WILL REACH NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AROUND 16Z...THEN NEAR KOKC AND KLAW 00-02Z...AND KSPS 02-05Z. ADDITIONAL ISO-SCT SHRA/TSRA MAY OCCUR AFTER 00Z EAST OF KEND- KLTS...BUT DID NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE. MBS PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2014/ DISCUSSION... THE FORECAST CHALLENGE OF THE DAY IS DETERMINING RAIN CHANCES TODAY AND TONIGHT. HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE RAIN CHANCES FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT. NEAR RECORD HEAT WILL AGAIN OCCUR TODAY SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT... MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF A CLINTON TO PONCA CITY LINE. USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE HIGHS...GENERALLY TOWARDS THE COOLER SIDE NORTH OF THE FRONT AND WARM SIDE SOUTH OF THE FRONT. THIS MORNING...INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL OCCUR. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...PERHAPS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. WENT WITH THE HRRR FOR COLD FRONT TIMING TODAY. THIS AFTERNOON...A BAND OR LINE OF HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP NEAR OR JUST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. THE LATEST TWO RUNS OF THE HRRR INDICATED THIS POTENTIAL. SINCE FORCING IS RATHER STRONG...THINK THE HRRR SOLUTION SEEMS REASONABLE...SO ADDED 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCES NEAR CLINTON... TO OKLAHOMA CITY...TO STILLWATER. IF THIS MATERIALIZES...GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF DOWNPOURS WOULD BE POSSIBLE. NOT SURE THIS WILL OCCUR AS OTHER MODELS GENERALLY DID NOT DEPICT ANY QPF. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE A FEW ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS FROM DAYTIME HEATING...BUT THIS SEEMS DOUBTFUL AS THE CAP SHOULD HOLD. TONIGHT...ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP...GENERALLY ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. THESE WOULD BE CAPABLE OF HAIL...POSSIBLY UP TO QUARTERS...THOUGH OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL REMAINS LOW...AND THE HIGHER STORM CHANCES MAY BE ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND POINTS EAST. KEPT RAIN CHANCES 20 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE EAST OF A ENID TO ALTUS LINE WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES EAST OF SHAWNEE. ANY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY REMAIN LIGHT AND SPOTTY...THOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A EAST WEST BAND OF OVER 0.50 INCH SOMEWHERE NEAR AND EAST OF I-35. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH AND THROUGH THE AREA. TUESDAY...A FEW ELEVATED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY LINGER NEAR THE RED RIVER EAST OF I-35. OTHERWISE...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA. USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE HIGHS...WHICH WILL BE SEASONABLE FOR LATE OCTOBER. TUESDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED. PATCHY FROST MAY DEVELOP IN A FEW RURAL LOCATIONS... MAINLY IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE RED RIVER CLOSE TO AND EAST OF I-35. WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS. KEPT LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS ON THURSDAY AS THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE RETURN FOR RAIN DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT PATCHY FROST THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING IN RURAL LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE COOLEST ON FRIDAY. MOISTURE MAY INCREASE BY SUNDAY. MBS CLIMATE... RECORD HIGHS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS THE AREA. HERE ARE THE RECORDS. TODAY OCTOBER 27 OKLAHOMA CITY 86 1922 WICHITA FALLS 91 1938 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... OKLAHOMA CITY OK 52 70 44 73 / 20 0 0 0 HOBART OK 50 71 42 73 / 10 0 0 0 WICHITA FALLS TX 56 74 47 75 / 20 0 0 0 GAGE OK 41 68 35 73 / 10 0 0 0 PONCA CITY OK 46 70 39 72 / 30 0 0 0 DURANT OK 60 72 50 73 / 40 20 10 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...NONE. TX...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
632 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2014 .DISCUSSION... AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS IS BELOW. && .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT A BAND/LINE OF -SHRA WILL AFFECT KOKC AND KOUN 20-22Z...AS WELL AS POSSIBLY KLAW...KPNC...KHBR... AND KHBR 17-21Z. THUS...ADDED MENTION. GUSTY WINDS MAY OCCUR WITH -SHRA. TS IS POSSIBLE AS WELL BUT DID NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND BRING A WIND SHIFT FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTH. THIS FRONT WILL REACH NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AROUND 16Z...THEN NEAR KOKC AND KLAW 00-02Z...AND KSPS 02-05Z. ADDITIONAL ISO-SCT SHRA/TSRA MAY OCCUR AFTER 00Z EAST OF KEND- KLTS...BUT DID NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE. MBS && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2014/ DISCUSSION... THE FORECAST CHALLENGE OF THE DAY IS DETERMINING RAIN CHANCES TODAY AND TONIGHT. HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE RAIN CHANCES FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT. NEAR RECORD HEAT WILL AGAIN OCCUR TODAY SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT... MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF A CLINTON TO PONCA CITY LINE. USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE HIGHS...GENERALLY TOWARDS THE COOLER SIDE NORTH OF THE FRONT AND WARM SIDE SOUTH OF THE FRONT. THIS MORNING...INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL OCCUR. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...PERHAPS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. WENT WITH THE HRRR FOR COLD FRONT TIMING TODAY. THIS AFTERNOON...A BAND OR LINE OF HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP NEAR OR JUST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. THE LATEST TWO RUNS OF THE HRRR INDICATED THIS POTENTIAL. SINCE FORCING IS RATHER STRONG...THINK THE HRRR SOLUTION SEEMS REASONABLE...SO ADDED 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCES NEAR CLINTON... TO OKLAHOMA CITY...TO STILLWATER. IF THIS MATERIALIZES...GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF DOWNPOURS WOULD BE POSSIBLE. NOT SURE THIS WILL OCCUR AS OTHER MODELS GENERALLY DID NOT DEPICT ANY QPF. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE A FEW ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS FROM DAYTIME HEATING...BUT THIS SEEMS DOUBTFUL AS THE CAP SHOULD HOLD. TONIGHT...ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP...GENERALLY ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. THESE WOULD BE CAPABLE OF HAIL...POSSIBLY UP TO QUARTERS...THOUGH OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL REMAINS LOW...AND THE HIGHER STORM CHANCES MAY BE ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND POINTS EAST. KEPT RAIN CHANCES 20 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE EAST OF A ENID TO ALTUS LINE WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES EAST OF SHAWNEE. ANY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY REMAIN LIGHT AND SPOTTY...THOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A EAST WEST BAND OF OVER 0.50 INCH SOMEWHERE NEAR AND EAST OF I-35. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH AND THROUGH THE AREA. TUESDAY...A FEW ELEVATED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY LINGER NEAR THE RED RIVER EAST OF I-35. OTHERWISE...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA. USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE HIGHS...WHICH WILL BE SEASONABLE FOR LATE OCTOBER. TUESDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED. PATCHY FROST MAY DEVELOP IN A FEW RURAL LOCATIONS... MAINLY IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE RED RIVER CLOSE TO AND EAST OF I-35. WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS. KEPT LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS ON THURSDAY AS THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE RETURN FOR RAIN DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT PATCHY FROST THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING IN RURAL LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE COOLEST ON FRIDAY. MOISTURE MAY INCREASE BY SUNDAY. MBS CLIMATE... RECORD HIGHS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS THE AREA. HERE ARE THE RECORDS. TODAY OCTOBER 27 OKLAHOMA CITY 86 1922 WICHITA FALLS 91 1938 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... OKLAHOMA CITY OK 85 52 70 44 / 30 20 0 0 HOBART OK 85 50 71 42 / 20 10 0 0 WICHITA FALLS TX 90 56 74 47 / 0 20 0 0 GAGE OK 75 41 68 35 / 10 10 0 0 PONCA CITY OK 82 46 70 39 / 20 30 0 0 DURANT OK 84 60 72 50 / 0 40 20 10 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...NONE. TX...NONE. && $$ 03/99/17
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED TO ADD CLIMATE SECTION
NWS NORMAN OK
402 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2014 .DISCUSSION... THE FORECAST CHALLENGE OF THE DAY IS DETERMINING RAIN CHANCES TODAY AND TONIGHT. HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE RAIN CHANCES FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT. NEAR RECORD HEAT WILL AGAIN OCCUR TODAY SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT... MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF A CLINTON TO PONCA CITY LINE. USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE HIGHS...GENERALLY TOWARDS THE COOLER SIDE NORTH OF THE FRONT AND WARM SIDE SOUTH OF THE FRONT. THIS MORNING...INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL OCCUR. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...PERHAPS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. WENT WITH THE HRRR FOR COLD FRONT TIMING TODAY. THIS AFTERNOON...A BAND OR LINE OF HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP NEAR OR JUST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. THE LATEST TWO RUNS OF THE HRRR INDICATED THIS POTENTIAL. SINCE FORCING IS RATHER STRONG...THINK THE HRRR SOLUTION SEEMS REASONABLE...SO ADDED 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCES NEAR CLINTON... TO OKLAHOMA CITY...TO STILLWATER. IF THIS MATERIALIZES...GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF DOWNPOURS WOULD BE POSSIBLE. NOT SURE THIS WILL OCCUR AS OTHER MODELS GENERALLY DID NOT DEPICT ANY QPF. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE A FEW ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS FROM DAYTIME HEATING...BUT THIS SEEMS DOUBTFUL AS THE CAP SHOULD HOLD. TONIGHT...ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP...GENERALLY ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. THESE WOULD BE CAPABLE OF HAIL...POSSIBLY UP TO QUARTERS...THOUGH OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL REMAINS LOW...AND THE HIGHER STORM CHANCES MAY BE ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND POINTS EAST. KEPT RAIN CHANCES 20 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE EAST OF A ENID TO ALTUS LINE WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES EAST OF SHAWNEE. ANY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY REMAIN LIGHT AND SPOTTY...THOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A EAST WEST BAND OF OVER 0.50 INCH SOMEWHERE NEAR AND EAST OF I-35. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH AND THROUGH THE AREA. TUESDAY...A FEW ELEVATED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY LINGER NEAR THE RED RIVER EAST OF I-35. OTHERWISE...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA. USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE HIGHS...WHICH WILL BE SEASONABLE FOR LATE OCTOBER. TUESDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED. PATCHY FROST MAY DEVELOP IN A FEW RURAL LOCATIONS... MAINLY IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE RED RIVER CLOSE TO AND EAST OF I-35. WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS. KEPT LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS ON THURSDAY AS THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE RETURN FOR RAIN DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT PATCHY FROST THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING IN RURAL LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE COOLEST ON FRIDAY. MOISTURE MAY INCREASE BY SUNDAY. MBS && .CLIMATE... RECORD HIGHS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS THE AREA. HERE ARE THE RECORDS. TODAY OCTOBER 27 OKLAHOMA CITY 86 1922 WICHITA FALLS 91 1938 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... OKLAHOMA CITY OK 85 52 70 44 / 30 20 0 0 HOBART OK 85 50 71 42 / 20 10 0 0 WICHITA FALLS TX 90 56 74 47 / 0 20 0 0 GAGE OK 75 41 68 35 / 10 10 0 0 PONCA CITY OK 82 46 70 39 / 20 30 0 0 DURANT OK 84 60 72 50 / 0 40 20 10 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...NONE. TX...NONE. && $$ 03/17
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
359 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2014 .DISCUSSION... THE FORECAST CHALLENGE OF THE DAY IS DETERMINING RAIN CHANCES TODAY AND TONIGHT. HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE RAIN CHANCES FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT. NEAR RECORD HEAT WILL AGAIN OCCUR TODAY SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT... MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF A CLINTON TO PONCA CITY LINE. USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE HIGHS...GENERALLY TOWARDS THE COOLER SIDE NORTH OF THE FRONT AND WARM SIDE SOUTH OF THE FRONT. THIS MORNING...INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL OCCUR. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...PERHAPS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. WENT WITH THE HRRR FOR COLD FRONT TIMING TODAY. THIS AFTERNOON...A BAND OR LINE OF HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP NEAR OR JUST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. THE LATEST TWO RUNS OF THE HRRR INDICATED THIS POTENTIAL. SINCE FORCING IS RATHER STRONG...THINK THE HRRR SOLUTION SEEMS REASONABLE...SO ADDED 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCES NEAR CLINTON... TO OKLAHOMA CITY...TO STILLWATER. IF THIS MATERIALIZES...GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF DOWNPOURS WOULD BE POSSIBLE. NOT SURE THIS WILL OCCUR AS OTHER MODELS GENERALLY DID NOT DEPICT ANY QPF. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE A FEW ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS FROM DAYTIME HEATING...BUT THIS SEEMS DOUBTFUL AS THE CAP SHOULD HOLD. TONIGHT...ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP...GENERALLY ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. THESE WOULD BE CAPABLE OF HAIL...POSSIBLY UP TO QUARTERS...THOUGH OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL REMAINS LOW...AND THE HIGHER STORM CHANCES MAY BE ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND POINTS EAST. KEPT RAIN CHANCES 20 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE EAST OF A ENID TO ALTUS LINE WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES EAST OF SHAWNEE. ANY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY REMAIN LIGHT AND SPOTTY...THOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A EAST WEST BAND OF OVER 0.50 INCH SOMEWHERE NEAR AND EAST OF I-35. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH AND THROUGH THE AREA. TUESDAY...A FEW ELEVATED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY LINGER NEAR THE RED RIVER EAST OF I-35. OTHERWISE...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA. USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE HIGHS...WHICH WILL BE SEASONABLE FOR LATE OCTOBER. TUESDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED. PATCHY FROST MAY DEVELOP IN A FEW RURAL LOCATIONS... MAINLY IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE RED RIVER CLOSE TO AND EAST OF I-35. WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS. KEPT LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS ON THURSDAY AS THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE RETURN FOR RAIN DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT PATCHY FROST THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING IN RURAL LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE COOLEST ON FRIDAY. MOISTURE MAY INCREASE BY SUNDAY. MBS && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... OKLAHOMA CITY OK 85 52 70 44 / 30 20 0 0 HOBART OK 85 50 71 42 / 20 10 0 0 WICHITA FALLS TX 90 56 74 47 / 0 20 0 0 GAGE OK 75 41 68 35 / 10 10 0 0 PONCA CITY OK 82 46 70 39 / 20 30 0 0 DURANT OK 84 60 72 50 / 0 40 20 10 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...NONE. TX...NONE. && $$ 03/17
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
935 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014 .UPDATE...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM CELINA TO MURFREESBORO AND WAYNESBORO. NORTH OF THE FRONT...TEMPS WERE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S...WHILE TEMPS REMAINED IN THE LOWER 60S SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE SCATTERED ALONG THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH MOST OF THE MID STATE BY MIDNIGHT...BUT POST FRONTAL SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH WILL LINGER LATE INTO THE NIGHT. THE FORECAST WAS RECENTLY UPDATED TO RAISE POPS ALL AREAS. RAIN WILL NOT BE CONSTANT...BUT SHOWERS ARE NUMEROUS ENOUGH THAT EVERYBODY SHOULD HAVE SOME PERIODS OF MEASURABLE RAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL END FOR OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES BY MIDNIGHT. MOST OTHER AREAS WEST OF THE PLATEAU WILL SEE AN END TO SHOWERS BY 6 AM. TOTAL RAINFALL WILL RANGE FROM AROUND ONE QUARTER INCH NORTHWEST...TO AROUND THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH FOR THE SOUTH HALF AND PLATEAU. TEMPS ARE ON TRACK TO FOR LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S 13 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014/ UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION FORECASTS. AVIATION...SURFACE COLD FRONT NEAR A LEX-BNA-MEM LINE AT 23Z, PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OUT AHEAD OF IT. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BEHIND THE FRONT WAS PRODUCING A BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM NEAR SDF TO CKV...DYR AND LIT. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY COMMON OVERNIGHT AT MID STATE TERMINALS AS THESE TWO AREAS OF PRECIPITATION MOVE ACROSS THE MID STATE. SURFACE FRONT SHOULD PUSH EAST OF MIDDLE TN AROUND 10Z, WITH SOME POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS LINGERING IN THE CSV AREA THROUGH 15Z. EXPECT MVFR TO GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 05Z AT CKV, AFTER 07Z AT BNA, AND AFTER 13Z AT CSV. 19 && 329 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014 .DISCUSSION... COLD FRONT IS JUST TO THE NW OF THE CWA AT THIS TIME. PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONT HAS LOST ORGANIZATION THROUGH THE DAY. SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS THE EXTENT OF THE PRECIP AND IS CONFINED TO THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF OUR COUNTIES FOR NOW. FORCING IS WEAK ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND THE LATEST HRRR DOES NOT INDICATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF STRENGTHENING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. SO...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE HRRR WHICH CONTINUES TO JUST SHOW LIGHT TO MODERATE SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR TONIGHT. WILL LOWER QPF AMOUNTS IN THE GRIDS AND GENERALLY UTILIZE 40-60 PERCENT POPS. WILL INCLUDE JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER. STILL...SOME MINIMAL INSTABILITIES ARE IN PLACE. FOLLOWING A FEW RESIDUAL SHOWERS IN THE MORNING ACROSS OUR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES...WE SHOULD SEE DECREASING CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND THIS LATEST COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL ONLY USHER IN NEAR NORMAL VALUES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. IN THE EXT FCST...THE WEATHER LOOKS A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING THAN 24 HRS AGO. AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS LOOKING AS THOUGH IT WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST AND MOVE ACROSS EASTERN TN BY THIS WEEKEND. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHERLY ON FRIDAY ACROSS TN AND WILL BEGIN TO USHER IN COOLER TO COLDER TEMPERATURES. HERE IN THE MID STATE...WE WILL BE ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND THERE WILL BE SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ON FRIDAY AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. GFS ACTUALLY SUPPORTS A FEW FLURRIES FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLATEAU. BUT...GIVEN THAT THIS IS ONLY RUN #1 OF GFS CONTINUITY...WILL ONLY MENTION COLDER TEMPS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. FURTHERMORE...EURO IS FURTHER EAST WITH THE TRACK AND MOISTURE. SATURDAY LOOKS RATHER COLD WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S WITH AN APPRECIABLE NORTHERLY BREEZE AS WELL. SO...LOOKING COLD AND BRISK ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE WARM WEATHER WE HAVE HAD. OTHERWISE...SFC HIGH WILL BE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY ON SUNDAY MORNING. MEX IS TRENDING TOWARD COLDER AND A FREEZE POTENTIAL IS CERTAINLY IN PLACE. FOR NOW...WILL INCLUDE PATCHY/AREAS OF FROST ACROSS THE AREA. LOOK FOR A WARMING TREND TO OCCUR ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. 21 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
849 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014 .UPDATE... SHOWERS HAVE FAILED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED FRONT ON THE NORTHERN BORDER OF OUR AREA. THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL AS THE LOW- LEVEL JET REACHES IT/S DIURNAL MAXIMUM LATER TONIGHT. THE FORECAST WAS JUST UPDATED THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY TO RE-TREND FROM THE CURRENT CONDITIONS. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST OTHER THAN REMOVAL OF POPS BEFORE 06Z AND A REDUCTION IN CLOUDCOVER THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014/ AVIATION... A WEAK COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY. IT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS OVERNIGHT. WHILE NUMERICAL MODELS AND MODEL CROSS SECTIONS KEEP MOST OF THE AREA VFR THROUGH THE NIGHT...HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS (THE HRRR AND SIMULATED SATELLITE WRF) SUGGEST MVFR CIGS BEGINNING AROUND 05Z AT THE I-35 TERMINALS AND AROUND 10Z AT DRT. HAVE SIDED WITH THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS. SOME DRIZZLE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TOMORROW AFTERNOON BETWEEN 19Z AND 21Z ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT AUS BY 02Z...AND SAT/SSF/DRT BY 05Z. WIND SPEEDS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS. TREADWAY PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014/ SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...THE COLD FRONT HAS SLOWED ITS SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT AT 3 PM STRETCHED FROM JUST SOUTH OF DALLAS THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS...THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY AND INTO VAL VERDE COUNTY. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE SOUTH TONIGHT...REACHING CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. LIGHT WINDS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE SHALLOW FRONT TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE FRONT NOW LOOKS TO SLIP JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS OF THE CWA ENDING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. COOLER ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...POSSIBLY LOWER 80S ACROSS SOUTHERN CWA. LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS WHILE DOWNSTREAM TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL SEND A RE-ENFORCING COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY. MOISTURE IS POOLED ALONG THE RIO GRANDE... AND 12Z GFS/NAM12/CMC ARE ALL INDICATING LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA AHEAD OF THIS FRONT FRIDAY. FOR NOW AM DISCOUNTING ECMWF QPF ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. DRIER AIR DOES FILTER INTO THE REGION FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. COOL AND DRY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE. LOWS SATURDAY MORNING COULD DIP INTO THE MID AND UPPER 40S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND CENTRAL TEXAS...LOW TO MID 50S SOUTHERN AREAS...AND UPPER 50S ALONG THE RIO GRANDE. RETURN FLOW SETS UP LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...WITH CLOUDS RETURNING QUICKLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES. A FEW WEAK STREAMER SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH NOT MENTIONED IN OFFICIAL FORECAST. FORECAST IS BECOMING MORE INTERESTING EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN FURTHER ON MONDAY...AHEAD OF A DEEP TROUGH THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...DESERT SOUTHWEST AND BAJA CALIFORNIA. AGAIN...ISOLATED STREAMER SHOWERS POSSIBLE MONDAY AND MENTIONED IN FORECAST. SOME DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS WITH HOW QUICKLY THE TROUGH MOVES EAST...WITH THE 12Z ECMWF FASTER INTO THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...LEAVING BEHIND LOW CUTT OFF WEST OF BAJA. GFS IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER...WITH TROUGH COMING OUT TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...AND SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE TROUGH NOT CUTTING OFF...MOVING DEEP THROUGH MEXICO AND TEXAS. THE GFS ABSORBS THE NEXT PACIFIC TROPICAL SYSTEM INTO THE TROUGH...WITH DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC TAP OF REMNANT MOISTURE AND ENERGY MOVING RIGHT TROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS TUESDAY...COINCIDING WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT. STARTED AN UPWARD TREND IN THE POPS FOR TUESDAY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS...NOW INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY. SHOULD THE PACIFIC TAP VERIFY...THEN POPS COULD END UP MUCH HIGHER...AND BENEFICIAL QPF AMOUNTS GIVEN THEN HIGH PWATS FOR EARLY NOVEMBER. GIVEN DAY 7 FORECAST...MAY TAKE A FEW MORE DAYS FOR MODEL CONSENSUS TO DEVELOP. STAY TUNED. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 64 78 59 82 58 / 20 20 10 10 10 AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 63 78 56 81 53 / 20 20 10 10 10 NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 65 79 60 82 58 / 20 20 10 10 10 BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 59 75 56 78 55 / 20 10 10 10 - DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 65 76 64 84 64 / 20 20 10 10 10 GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 60 77 56 80 56 / 20 20 10 10 - HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 65 79 58 84 59 / 20 20 10 10 10 SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 64 78 58 82 56 / 20 20 10 10 10 LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 64 79 58 80 55 / 20 20 10 10 10 SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 65 79 62 82 61 / 20 20 10 10 10 STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 67 80 62 83 61 / 20 20 10 10 10 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ MESOSCALE/AVIATION...12 SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...26 PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS FORT WORTH TX
656 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014 .UPDATE... SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPED NEAR THE COLD FRONT LATE AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AT AROUND 10 MPH AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO COULD DEVELOP THIS EVENING. HAVE MADE A QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST THE POPS REMOVING AREAS ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A LAMPASAS TO WACO TO EMORY LINE. HAVE ALSO INCREASED THE POPS A LITTLE FOR THIS EVENING SOUTHEAST OF AN ATHENS TO GROESBECK LINE. 58 && .AVIATION... /ISSUED 644 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014/ /00Z TAFS/ COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH AND IS LOCATED ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR KILLEEN TO FAIRFIELD AND NORTHEAST TO TYLER. NORTH WINDS AROUND 10KTS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SCT/BKN040 CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED. THERE ARE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT BUT MOST OF THESE ARE SOUTH OF THE WACO AREA SO NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME LINGERING CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE EAST BY MID DAY WEDNESDAY. DUNN && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014/ THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTH TEXAS AREA. PATCHES OF LOWER CLOUDS ARE EVIDENT ON SATELLITE...BUT RADAR CURRENTLY ONLY SHOWS WEAK SHOWER ACTIVITY NEAR GILMER IN EAST TEXAS. HRRR STILL SHOWS SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING SO HAVE LEFT LOW POPS IN THAT AREA. MODERATE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S/LOW 80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S/60S THROUGH FRIDAY. THEN THE NEXT SHOT OF REINFORCING COLD AIR PUSHES IN ON FRIDAY. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW LOWS TO DROP INTO THE 40S NORTH AND LOW 50S FAR SOUTH. SATURDAY HIGHS WILL SIT IN THE 60S IN ALL BUT THE SOUTH AND WEST WHERE LOW 70S ARE EXPECTED. IN THE EXTENDED...GFS/ECMWF ADVERTISE A GOOD RAIN EVENT MONDAY/TUESDAY...WITH THE GFS ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. ECMWF CUTS THIS MOISTURE OFF IN MEXICO. HAVE HIGH CHANCE POPS DURING THAT TIME FRAME DUE TO MODEL AGREEMENT...BUT WILL RESERVE JUDGMENT ON THE TROPICAL MOISTURE. IF IT OCCURS...QPF MAY BE MUCH HIGHER THAN IF IT GETS TRAPPED IN MEXICO. 84 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 56 77 53 77 53 / 5 0 0 10 5 WACO, TX 57 77 53 78 55 / 10 10 5 10 5 PARIS, TX 52 74 46 73 49 / 10 5 5 10 5 DENTON, TX 49 76 47 76 49 / 5 0 0 10 5 MCKINNEY, TX 51 76 46 75 50 / 10 5 0 10 5 DALLAS, TX 56 77 55 76 55 / 10 0 0 10 5 TERRELL, TX 55 76 51 76 52 / 10 5 5 10 5 CORSICANA, TX 58 76 52 76 53 / 20 20 5 10 5 TEMPLE, TX 60 77 55 79 55 / 20 20 10 10 5 MINERAL WELLS, TX 51 77 49 77 50 / 5 0 0 10 5 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 91/58
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
644 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014 .AVIATION... /00Z TAFS/ COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH AND IS LOCATED ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR KILLEEN TO FAIRFIELD AND NORTHEAST TO TYLER. NORTH WINDS AROUND 10KTS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SCT/BKN040 CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED. THERE ARE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT BUT MOST OF THESE ARE SOUTH OF THE WACO AREA SO NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME LINGERING CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE EAST BY MID DAY WEDNESDAY. DUNN && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014/ THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTH TEXAS AREA. PATCHES OF LOWER CLOUDS ARE EVIDENT ON SATELLITE...BUT RADAR CURRENTLY ONLY SHOWS WEAK SHOWER ACTIVITY NEAR GILMER IN EAST TEXAS. HRRR STILL SHOWS SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING SO HAVE LEFT LOW POPS IN THAT AREA. MODERATE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S/LOW 80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S/60S THROUGH FRIDAY. THEN THE NEXT SHOT OF REINFORCING COLD AIR PUSHES IN ON FRIDAY. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW LOWS TO DROP INTO THE 40S NORTH AND LOW 50S FAR SOUTH. SATURDAY HIGHS WILL SIT IN THE 60S IN ALL BUT THE SOUTH AND WEST WHERE LOW 70S ARE EXPECTED. IN THE EXTENDED...GFS/ECMWF ADVERTISE A GOOD RAIN EVENT MONDAY/TUESDAY...WITH THE GFS ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. ECMWF CUTS THIS MOISTURE OFF IN MEXICO. HAVE HIGH CHANCE POPS DURING THAT TIME FRAME DUE TO MODEL AGREEMENT...BUT WILL RESERVE JUDGMENT ON THE TROPICAL MOISTURE. IF IT OCCURS...QPF MAY BE MUCH HIGHER THAN IF IT GETS TRAPPED IN MEXICO. 84 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 56 77 53 77 53 / 10 0 0 10 5 WACO, TX 57 77 53 78 55 / 20 10 5 10 5 PARIS, TX 52 74 46 73 49 / 20 5 5 10 5 DENTON, TX 49 76 47 76 49 / 5 0 0 10 5 MCKINNEY, TX 51 76 46 75 50 / 10 5 0 10 5 DALLAS, TX 56 77 55 76 55 / 10 0 0 10 5 TERRELL, TX 55 76 51 76 52 / 20 5 5 10 5 CORSICANA, TX 58 76 52 76 53 / 30 20 5 10 5 TEMPLE, TX 60 77 55 79 55 / 20 20 10 10 5 MINERAL WELLS, TX 51 77 49 77 50 / 5 0 0 10 5 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
623 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014 .AVIATION... A WEAK COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY. IT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS OVERNIGHT. WHILE NUMERICAL MODELS AND MODEL CROSS SECTIONS KEEP MOST OF THE AREA VFR THROUGH THE NIGHT...HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS (THE HRRR AND SIMULATED SATELLITE WRF) SUGGEST MVFR CIGS BEGINNING AROUND 05Z AT THE I-35 TERMINALS AND AROUND 10Z AT DRT. HAVE SIDED WITH THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS. SOME DRIZZLE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TOMORROW AFTERNOON BETWEEN 19Z AND 21Z ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT AUS BY 02Z...AND SAT/SSF/DRT BY 05Z. WIND SPEEDS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS. TREADWAY && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014/ SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...THE COLD FRONT HAS SLOWED ITS SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT AT 3 PM STRETCHED FROM JUST SOUTH OF DALLAS THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS...THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY AND INTO VAL VERDE COUNTY. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE SOUTH TONIGHT...REACHING CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. LIGHT WINDS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE SHALLOW FRONT TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE FRONT NOW LOOKS TO SLIP JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS OF THE CWA ENDING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. COOLER ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...POSSIBLY LOWER 80S ACROSS SOUTHERN CWA. LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS WHILE DOWNSTREAM TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL SEND A RE-ENFORCING COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY. MOISTURE IS POOLED ALONG THE RIO GRANDE... AND 12Z GFS/NAM12/CMC ARE ALL INDICATING LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA AHEAD OF THIS FRONT FRIDAY. FOR NOW AM DISCOUNTING ECMWF QPF ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. DRIER AIR DOES FILTER INTO THE REGION FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. COOL AND DRY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE. LOWS SATURDAY MORNING COULD DIP INTO THE MID AND UPPER 40S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND CENTRAL TEXAS...LOW TO MID 50S SOUTHERN AREAS...AND UPPER 50S ALONG THE RIO GRANDE. RETURN FLOW SETS UP LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...WITH CLOUDS RETURNING QUICKLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES. A FEW WEAK STREAMER SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH NOT MENTIONED IN OFFICIAL FORECAST. FORECAST IS BECOMING MORE INTERESTING EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN FURTHER ON MONDAY...AHEAD OF A DEEP TROUGH THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...DESERT SOUTHWEST AND BAJA CALIFORNIA. AGAIN...ISOLATED STREAMER SHOWERS POSSIBLE MONDAY AND MENTIONED IN FORECAST. SOME DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS WITH HOW QUICKLY THE TROUGH MOVES EAST...WITH THE 12Z ECMWF FASTER INTO THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...LEAVING BEHIND LOW CUTT OFF WEST OF BAJA. GFS IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER...WITH TROUGH COMING OUT TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...AND SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE TROUGH NOT CUTTING OFF...MOVING DEEP THROUGH MEXICO AND TEXAS. THE GFS ABSORBS THE NEXT PACIFIC TROPICAL SYSTEM INTO THE TROUGH...WITH DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC TAP OF REMNANT MOISTURE AND ENERGY MOVING RIGHT TROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS TUESDAY...COINCIDING WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT. STARTED AN UPWARD TREND IN THE POPS FOR TUESDAY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS...NOW INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY. SHOULD THE PACIFIC TAP VERIFY...THEN POPS COULD END UP MUCH HIGHER...AND BENEFICIAL QPF AMOUNTS GIVEN THEN HIGH PWATS FOR EARLY NOVEMBER. GIVEN DAY 7 FORECAST...MAY TAKE A FEW MORE DAYS FOR MODEL CONSENSUS TO DEVELOP. STAY TUNED. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 84 64 78 59 82 / 10 20 20 10 10 AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 84 63 78 56 81 / - 20 20 10 10 NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 86 65 79 60 82 / - 20 20 10 10 BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 81 59 75 56 78 / 10 20 10 10 10 DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 80 65 76 64 84 / - 20 20 10 10 GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 82 60 77 56 80 / 10 20 20 10 10 HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 85 65 79 58 84 / - 20 20 10 10 SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 85 64 78 58 82 / - 20 20 10 10 LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 85 64 79 58 80 / - 20 20 10 10 SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 86 65 79 62 82 / - 20 20 10 10 STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 86 67 80 62 83 / - 20 20 10 10 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ MESOSCALE/AVIATION...12 SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...26 PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
319 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2014 FOCUS IS ON RAIN THIS MORNING...AND POTENTIAL FOR REDEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94 AS WAS PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. THAT ACTIVITY IS MOVING NORTHEAST...AND ANTICIPATE DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. BUT A POTENT LONG WAVE TROUGH WITH EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...DRIVING A SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT ACROSS DURING THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL RAIN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. BUT IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE TIMING IS SLIGHTLY OFF...WITH THE FRONT ALMOST ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE NEW CONVECTION DEVELOPS. THUS HAVE MAINTAINED THE RAIN CHANCES WITH THE HIGHEST RISK OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST PART OF OUR AREA FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SOME QUESTION TODAY ON CLOUDS AS WELL. A FEW OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST DRY AIR ROTATING IN FOR A TIME...LEADING TO LESS CLOUD COVER AND POTENTIALLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. DID RAISE TEMPS A FEW DEGREES...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN WHERE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR LATEST. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2014 COOLER AIR DROPPING INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH ON TUESDAY. COULD BE A BIT BREEZY AS WELL WITH GOOD DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT. WITH THE COOLER AIR REGIME...COULD SEE SOME INSTABILITY SHOWERS FROM CENTRAL MN INTO NORTHERN WI. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY. BUT A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE HAS BEEN PRESENT IN THE MODELS FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW...WITH VARYING DEGREES OF STRENGTH AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE. PREVIOUS FORECAST TOOK THE RAIN CHANCE OUT...AND HAVE MAINTAINED THAT CONTINUITY FOR NOW. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS HOWEVER...SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR ARRIVES TO END THE WEEK AS A SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE AREA DROPS IN FROM CANADA. FRIDAY SHOULD BE A CHILLY FALL DAY...AND SATURDAY MORNING LOOKS QUITE CRISP. BUT THE UPPER PATTERN IS REALLY AMPLIFYING BY THIS TIME...AND WITH A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE MT/WY ROCKIES... SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN AND WILL BEGIN A SLOW MODERATION. COULD BE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE WARM ADVECTION ON SUNDAY...BUT AT THIS POINT NOT LOOKING LIKE ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT. BRUNT OF THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO STAY TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA AT THIS POINT...SO MINIMAL IMPACT. BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE EVOLUTION. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014 27.00Z SOUNDINGS FROM KDVN AND KMPX INDICATED A LOT OF DRY AIR WAS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING AND DESPITE THE ONGOING ISENTROPIC LIFT...SATURATION HAS YET TO OCCUR. THE 27.00Z NAM AND 27.03Z RAP NOW SUGGEST THAT IF SATURATION IS GOING TO OCCUR...IT WILL NOT BE UNTIL AFTER 12Z MONDAY. BASED ON THE CURRENT TRENDS AND THIS MODEL DATA...HAVE TAKEN OUT THE IFR CONDITIONS FOR BOTH TAFS ALONG WITH ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION TONIGHT. IF SATURATION CAN OCCUR MONDAY MORNING...THE NAM WOULD STILL SUGGEST THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR CEILINGS WITH MAYBE A LITTLE BIT OF DRIZZLE COULD OCCUR AT KLSE AND JUST MVFR CEILINGS AT KRST. THE RAP IS NOT AS PESSIMISTIC AND WOULD KEEP THINGS VFR BUT FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN SOME FORECAST CONTINUITY AND SHOW A PERIOD OF SOME MVFR CEILINGS. ONCE THE SURFACE LOW MOVES PAST THE AREA...THE WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST WITH THE LIFT THROUGH THE COLUMN BRIEFLY COMING TO AN END. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE CEILINGS TO LIFT UP TO VFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH DOES LOOK TO COME THROUGH DURING THE EVENING AND COULD HELP TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT RAIN IN THE DEFORMATION AREA ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW AND HAVE INCLUDED A VCSH FOR KLSE MONDAY EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...MW LONG TERM...MW AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1150 PM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT) ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014 FORECAST FOCUS IS ON THE RAIN CHANCES FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE...WITH A VARIETY OF WEATHER ELEMENTS PLAYING A ROLL IN WHERE AND WHEN. TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT RAMPS UP...WITH A 40 KT 850 MB JET NOSING INTO WESTERN WI BY 06Z...TRANSITIONING NORTHEAST BY 12Z. LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION LEADS ITS PARENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...925-850 MB MAX AROUND 06Z. SOME NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST RUNNING FRONTOGENETIC RESPONSE ALONG 900 MB...IN THE VICINITY OF THE NOSE OF THE JET AND LOW LEVEL WARM PUSH. THIS TOO IS MAXED AT 06Z. GFS/NAM MUCAPES SUGGEST 500+ J/KG OF MUCAPE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT FOR THE LOCAL AREA. THERE WOULD SEEM TO BE PLENTY OF LIFT AND INSTABILITY TO WARRANT AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...DEPTH OF MOISTURE MIGHT PAINT A DIFFERENT PICTURE. LOOKING AT A SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST RUNNING X-SECTION DEPICTS A SHALLOW INCREASE IN SATURATION TONIGHT...HOLDING UNDER 700 MB UNTIL YOU WORK INTO NORTHERN/NORTHEAST WI. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS HAVE THIS SATURATION UNDER AN APPRECIABLE INVERSION...WITH OMEGA CO-LOCATED IN THE MOISTURE. HOWEVER...THE INSTABILITY IS ABOVE THE INVERSION...AND THE CLOUD LAYER MIGHT NOT BE ABLE TO TAP THIS SOURCE OF LIFT AS A RESULT - AT LEAST FOR PARTS OF THE AREA. IN FACT...MOST OF THE SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE AREA SUGGEST DRIZZLE WOULD BE THE PCPN TYPE. DEEPER CLOUD LAYER AND GREATER POTENTIAL TO RESOURCE THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY LIES TO THE NORTHEAST...GENERALLY I-94 AND EAST/NORTH. THINK THE SCENARIO WILL PLAY OUT WITH A 2-4 HOUR WIND OF A SHOWER/STORM THREAT...ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET...WITH GREATER PROBABILITIES OF DRIZZLE POST THE CONVECTIVE BAND. WILL STICK WITH SHOWER MENTION FOR ALL PCPN CHANCES FOR SIMPLICITY. THE SYSTEM/S SFC COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY...WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH BUSTING INTO WESTERN MN BY 00Z. RIBBON OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT RUNS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT...PARALLEL TO ITS ORIENTATION...WITH UP TO 500 J/KG OF MUCAPE DEVELOPING JUST SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. ANTICIPATE CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT...WITH THE BEST CHANCES JUST SOUTH/EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA. TO THE NORTH...SFC LOW CONGEALS INTO ONE MAIN CENTER AS IT LIFTS INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA. WESTWARD HANGING SFC TROUGH OFF THE LOW LOOKS TO HOLD ACROSS NORTHERN MN/SOUTHERN CANADA. BITS OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL SPIN AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL/TROUGH. EXPECT SOME PCPN RESPONSE FROM THESE PIECES OF ENERGY AND THE SFC TROUGH. RH FIELDS HOLD THE DEEPER SATURATION TO THE NORTH...WITH THE DEEPER LIFT. WHILE THE MOST FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR PCPN WILL LIE NORTH AND THEN SOUTH WITH THE FRONT...ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY AND WHERE VARIOUS BITS OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND WHERE THE SFC FRONT WILL BY AT XX TIME THAT SMALL CHANCES ARE WARRANTED FOR MOST OF THE AREA MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT /GREATER SOUTH-NORTH/. MEANWHILE...ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE INDICATED ON THE 295 F SFC FOR THE BETTER PART OF MON MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...CO-LOCATED WITH THE LOW SATURATION. SIGNAL STILL FAVORS DRIZZLE. HAVE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES IN THE I-94 CORRIDOR AS A RESULT. AGAIN...KEEPING PTYPE AS SHOWERS FOR SIMPLICITY. THAT SAID...THIS COULD UNFOLD INTO AN AREAS OF DRIZZLE - LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION - TYPE SCENARIO. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014 GFS/ECMWF/GEM ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SLIDING AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AFTER 06Z FRI. WHILE TIMING WITH THE VARIOUS MODELS ARE COMPARABLE...THERE ARE DIFFERENCES WITH HOW FAR WEST THE MAIN PIECE OF ENERGY WILL BE. THE GEM AND GFS CURRENTLY FAVOR TRACKING THE SHORTWAVE INTO MICH...WHICH WOULD KEEP THE BULK OF ANY RESULTING PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE 00Z EC WAS A BIT FARTHER WEST...AND THUS BRINGS A SWATH OF PCPN INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER...12Z CAME IN WITH A SOLUTION MORE LIKE THE GEM/GFS. MODELS HAVE BOUNCED AROUND A BIT WITHIN THEMSELVES...NOT LENDING A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN WHETHER THE WEST OR EASTERN SOLUTION IS BETTER. WILL STICK WITH CONSENSUS SOLUTION FOR NOW. COLDER AIR RETURNS MID WEEK AND WILL STICK AROUND INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE REGION COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. EXPECTING AT OR BELOW NORMALS TEMPS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014 27.00Z SOUNDINGS FROM KDVN AND KMPX INDICATED A LOT OF DRY AIR WAS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING AND DESPITE THE ONGOING ISENTROPIC LIFT...SATURATION HAS YET TO OCCUR. THE 27.00Z NAM AND 27.03Z RAP NOW SUGGEST THAT IF SATURATION IS GOING TO OCCUR...IT WILL NOT BE UNTIL AFTER 12Z MONDAY. BASED ON THE CURRENT TRENDS AND THIS MODEL DATA...HAVE TAKEN OUT THE IFR CONDITIONS FOR BOTH TAFS ALONG WITH ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION TONIGHT. IF SATURATION CAN OCCUR MONDAY MORNING...THE NAM WOULD STILL SUGGEST THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR CEILINGS WITH MAYBE A LITTLE BIT OF DRIZZLE COULD OCCUR AT KLSE AND JUST MVFR CEILINGS AT KRST. THE RAP IS NOT AS PESSIMISTIC AND WOULD KEEP THINGS VFR BUT FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN SOME FORECAST CONTINUITY AND SHOW A PERIOD OF SOME MVFR CEILINGS. ONCE THE SURFACE LOW MOVES PAST THE AREA...THE WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST WITH THE LIFT THROUGH THE COLUMN BRIEFLY COMING TO AN END. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE CEILINGS TO LIFT UP TO VFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH DOES LOOK TO COME THROUGH DURING THE EVENING AND COULD HELP TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT RAIN IN THE DEFORMATION AREA ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW AND HAVE INCLUDED A VCSH FOR KLSE MONDAY EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...RIECK LONG TERM....RIECK AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1158 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014 LATE EVENING UPDATE FOR ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS TO OVERNIGHT TEMPS AND SKY COVER TRENDS. OVERCAST CLOUD DECK CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AND MESOSCALE LAYER RH PROGS SUPPORT THE CLOUDS LINGERING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND PERHAPS DROPPING SOUTH OF I-80 A BIT. HAVE ADJUSTED SKY COVER GRIDS AND TEMPS ACCORDINGLY...WITH LOWEST TEMPS NOW EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTH...LOW/MID 30S...WITH READINGS AROUND 40 NORTH. UPDATE ISSUED AT 930 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014 EVENING UPDATE FOR SKY COVER AND OVERNIGHT TEMPS. CLOUD DECK ACROSS THE NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA HANGING ON LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...AND IS BEING MODELED WELL BY THE RAP LOW LEVEL RH PROGS. THIS MODEL MAINTAINS THE EVENING TREND OF AN EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE CLOUDS...GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. HAVE ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT TEMPS TO DAMPEN THE PREVIOUS NORTH TO SOUTH GRADIENT. IF THE OVERCAST DECK IS MAINTAINED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE NEEDED TO WARM TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTH. && .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014 CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE STRONG LOW IN SOUTHERN CANADA IS COMBINING WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION...TO BRING A BRISK FALL DAY...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES NORTH AND MOSTLY CLEAR SOUTH TO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES AT 2 PM ARE NEAR 50 NORTH AND NEAR 60 SOUTH. A 15 TO 25 MPH WIND IS MAKING IT FEEL SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014 LOOKING AT VISIBLE SATELLITE...THERE IS A DEFINITE DIURNAL CHARACTER TO THE STRATUS/STRATOCUMULUS OVER THE SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF IOWA...AND WE ARE SEEING HOLES WITH DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE DAKOTAS AS WELL. THIS DIURNAL NATURE OF THE CLOUD DECK OVER HEAD...AND THE ONE ADVECTING TOWARD THE REGION SHOULD ALLOW FOR SIGNIFICANT CLEARING BY SUNSET. MODELS SWEEP THE MAIN STRATUS DECK TO TO THE NORTH AWAY FROM THE CWA BY MIDNIGHT IN ANY CASE...THUS A MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR NIGHT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN UP AROUND 8 TO 12 MPH...HIGH ENOUGH TO KEEP US FROM DROPPING TO THE 20S...BUT NON THE LESS WE WILL BE QUITE CHILLY...WITH LOWS OF THE LOWER 30S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 37 SOUTHEAST. WEDNESDAY...AFTER A CHILLY START...WE WILL HAVE A CHILLY DAY. WHILE THE CONDITIONS SHOULD NOT BE AS BRISK AS TODAY...A MORNING WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH WILL DECREASE TOWARDS AFTERNOON TO AROUND 5 TO 10...RESULTING IN A MUCH MORE PLEASANT DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE QUITE COOL...WITH HIGHS ONLY AROUND 50 NORTH TO MID 50S FAR SOUTH. ERVIN .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014 FORECAST FOCUS ON MUCH COLDER WEATHER BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THURSDAY...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE CWA BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE QUITE DRY. THEREFORE...THIS LOOKS TO BE EITHER SPRINKLES OR ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS WITH MAINLY A TRACE EVENT AND WILL MAINTAIN THE 20 POP. FRIDAY...OPERATIONAL MODELS SIMILAR IN SHOWING A POTENT TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION NOTED. 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROP TO -9C IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES BY 12Z FRIDAY. CAN`T RULE OUT SOME FLURRIES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A PERIOD OF STRATUS CLOUDS. COLDER AIR WILL BE USHERED INTO THE CWA ON NORTH WINDS GUSTING TO 30 TO 35 MPH. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE ONLY IN THE 40S MAKING FOR A COLD AND WINDY HALLOWEEN. FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SLIDE INTO THE CWA WITH A WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZE EXPECTED AS WE FLIP THE CALENDAR TO NOVEMBER. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S AT MANY LOCATIONS. SOME COLD DRAINAGE LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY IN THE WAPSI VALLEY MAY DROP TO AROUND 20. WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY THERE WILL BE FULL SUNSHINE BUT ANOTHER COLD DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AGAIN. SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE HIGH SHIFTS WELL TO OUR EAST WITH MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE MIDWEST WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HOWEVER...LOW CONFIDENCE THIS FAR OUT IN REGARD TO TIMING/INTENSITY/PLACEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR NOW WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE IN THE 50S WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. HAASE && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014 06Z TAFS UPDATED TO REFLECT SKY COVER TRENDS WITH SCT-BKN LOW VFR DECK CONTINUING OVERNIGHT AT KCID/KDBQ AND LIKELY KMLI. EXPECT SOME CLEARING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...NONE. IL...NONE. MO...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...RP KINNEY SYNOPSIS...ERVIN SHORT TERM...ERVIN LONG TERM...HAASE AVIATION...RP KINNEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
334 AM MDT WED OCT 29 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 334 AM MDT WED OCT 29 2014 EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW LARGE SCALE TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH AN UPSTREAM RIDGE EXTENDING NORTH ALONG THE ROCKIES. NW FLOW IS IN PLACE OVER THE CWA BETWEEN THESE FEATURES. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO LINGER OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A WEAK LEE TROUGH BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN COLORADO. RIDGING WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST US THROUGH THURSDAY WITH NW FLOW OVER THE CWA. LEE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN TODAY IN RESPONSE TO CROSS MOUNTAIN FLOW IN THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...WITH HIGHS ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOWER 70S. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NW FLOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. WITH A DEEP DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED. THIS TROUGH WILL KICK A COLD FRONT SOUTH OVER THE CWA TONIGHT WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO SEASONAL VALUES IN THE 60S ON THURSDAY. FLOW ALOFT AMPLIFIES FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND A LARGE SCALE TROUGH BEGINS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WESTERN US. THERE WILL BE A FEW EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WITHIN THE MEAN FLOW...HOWEVER A VERY DRY AIR MASS AND UNFAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL STORM TRACKS WILL LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS FRIDAY AND THE ASSOCIATED BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 50S TO THE CWA (POSSIBLY LOWER IN THE NORTHEAST). THE AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL ALSO SUPPORT DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER COLORADO...AND WITH THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE...TIGHTENING GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL LIMIT DIURNAL COOLING. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 334 AM MDT WED OCT 29 2014 HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING TO THE EAST AND CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE AREA THROUGH MID DAY SUNDAY. ON SATURDAY THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST WILL PRODUCE A STIFF SOUTHERLY WIND. THIS COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE WEAK AND WILL PASS OVER THE FA STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THIS FRONT SO WILL ADD A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS...MOSTLY IN THE NORTHWEST AREA OF THE FA. AFTER THE FRONT PASSES ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGAN TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL CAUSE THE WINDS TO SHIFT TO WEST-NORTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH AND THE TEMPERATURES TO DECREASE TO AT OR BELOW FREEZING EARLY ON MONDAY MORNING. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST STARTS TO MOVE TOWARDS THE EAST MORE OF THE AREA WILL SEE MORE SEASONAL WEATHER THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1055 PM MDT TUE OCT 28 2014 VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT BOTH TAF SITES THRU FORECAST PERIOD. SKC BEFORE 16Z WED AND AFT 00Z THURSDAY...OTHERWISE FEW060 DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS VARIABLE THRU MIDDAY...THEN WSW 5-10KTS. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DR LONG TERM...BDW AVIATION...JN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW ORLEANS LA
358 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014 .SHORT TERM... THE START OF THE DAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH PATCHY FOG... SOME LOCATIONS MAY BE FAIRLY DENSE. OBSERVATIONS ARE GENERALLY AROUND 1/2 MILE AND UP. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW SLIGHT COOLING IN THE BOTTOM COOLING IN TH BOTTOM 50MB BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. THIS SHOULD WEAKEN THE INVERSION SOME AND THINKING IS THAT FOG DENSITY WILL NOT GET ANY WORSE THAN CURRENT. FOR THIS REASON...WILL HOLD OFF ON DENSE FOG ADVISORY BUT WILL MONITOR CLOSELY FOR POSSIBLE ISSUANCE. ONE LAST DAY OF WARM FALL CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY BEFORE COOLER AIR MASS MOVES IN. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY TRACKING EAST ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH AND COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND LOUISIANA. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE TODAY AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE CWA. REALLY LIKED THE OUTPUT OF THE HRRR THIS MORNING IN TERMS OF ITS INITIALIZATION AND FCST QPF WITH NOT A WHOLE LOT IN TERMS OF COVERAGE. MODEL SOUNDINGS AGREE WITH PWAT NEVER REACHING 1.5 INCHES TODAY. SO HAVE DROPPED POPS ABOUT 5 TO 10 PERCENT TODAY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. INSTABILITY WILL BE QUITE LIMITED WHICH WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO ISOLATED. SVR WEATHER WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE. .LONG TERM... A SECONDARY VORT MAX WILL REALLY DIG THE UPPER TROUGH SOUTH ACROSS THE SERN CONUS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL SEND A A REINFORCING STRONGER FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL BE A DRY FRONT AS MOISTURE DOESNT HAVE TIME TO RETURN BEFORE THE BOUNDARY COMES THROUGH. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WHICH WILL DROP TEMPS BY A GOOD 10 TO 15 DEGREES FROM MIDWEEK. EACH MODEL RUN HAS BEEN COMING IN COLDER AND COLDER SO HAVE FOLLOWED THIS TREND AS WELL. FCST TEMPS SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY ARE FAIRLY CLOSE TO BIAS CORRECTED ECMWF WHICH SEEMS TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH COLDNESS OF THE AIR MASS...WITH THE MAV PLAYING CATCH-UP. THIS SOLUTION BRINGS NIGHTTIME LOWS TO NEAR 40 DEGREES ALONG I-12 AND NORTHWARD FOR THOSE TWO NIGHTS AND HIGHS SATURDAY 60 TO 65. VERY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL RESULT IN MODIFYING AIRMASS BY MONDAY WITH TEMPS QUICKLY COMING BACK UP ALMOST TO CLIMO NORMAL. RAIN CHANCES COULD BE COMING BACK MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MEFFER && .MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS REALLY SLACKING OFF RIGHT NOW AS FRONT APPROACHES BUT AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TODAY WINDS WILL QUICKLY VEER AROUND TO THE NORTH. IN ADDITION CAA WILL HELP INCREASE THE WINDS EARLY THU MORNING WITH SCS CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED. WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 15 KTS UNTIL A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR GETS HERE FRI AFTN. AS THIS OCCURS IT WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER INCREASE IN THE WINDS AND SCY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS FRI AFTN AND PERSIST INTO SAT. /CAB/ && .AVIATION...BROAD RANGE OF ISSUES AND STATUSES THIS MORNING. TERMINALS AROUND THE REGION RANGE FROM LIFR TO VFR STATUS. THIS MORNING LOW CIGS AND VSBYS WILL IMPACT MOST TERMINALS OFF AN ON BUT OVERALL BNDRY LAYER WINDS SHOULD MAINLY JUST LEAD TO LOW CIGS. AFTER SUNRISE CIGS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY RISE BUT WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT WE MAY START TO SEE A FEW SHRA ANS TSRA DEVELOP. OVERALL RAIN CHANCES ARE FAIRLY LOW AND WILL LIKELY KEEP MENTION OF THEM OUT OF MOST TAFS...EXCEPTIONS OUR NERN HALF (MCB/ASD/GPT). IN ADDITION LOOKS FROM WINDS TO VEER AROUND TO THE NW THEN N THIS AFTN BUT NOT EXPECTING STRONG WINDS. /CAB/ && .DECISION SUPPORT... DSS CODE...GREEN. DEPLOYED...NONE. ACTIVATION...NONE. ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT. DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH VISIBILITY EVENT YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 76 50 73 48 / 30 10 10 10 BTR 80 53 75 49 / 30 10 10 10 ASD 81 55 75 45 / 30 10 10 10 MSY 81 61 75 55 / 20 20 10 10 GPT 80 56 75 48 / 30 20 10 10 PQL 81 53 74 43 / 40 20 10 10 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...NONE. GM...NONE. MS...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
1238 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014 UPDATED AVIATION SECTION. UPDATE ISSUED AT 717 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014 MAJOR DEEP-LAYER CYCLOGENESIS IS WELL UNDERWAY THIS EVENING TO THE NORTHEAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR. 500 MB LOW HAS NOW TRANSLATED EAST OF THE DLH CWA /CENTERED NEAR LAKE NIPIGON AS OF 00Z/..AND BENT-BACK INVERTED SURFACE TROF THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROWAL REGION OF THIS CYCLONE IS STARTING TO COLLAPSE TO THE SOUTHEAST. IR SATELLITE AND CANADIAN RADAR DATA IS NOW INDICATING THAT THE FAR WESTERN EDGE OF THE LARGE SCALE DEFORMATION ZONE OVER MUCH OF ONTARIO IS SAGGING SOUTHWARD AT AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH..AND WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT LIFT/COOLING TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW WITH THIS PRECIP BAND AS IT AFFECTS AREAS GENERALLY EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 53 CORRIDOR. WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR THINGS RATHER CLOSELY THIS EVENING..AS THERE IS AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SLUSHY INCHES OF ACCUMULATION IN A FEW PLACES DURING THE MAX INTENSITY OF PRECIP..WHCIH SHOULD OCCUR ROUGHLY BETWEEN 8 PM AND 2 AM. ELSEWHERE FARTHER SOUTH..THERE HAVE BEEN MANY REPORTS OF LIGHT SNOW MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN FOR SHORT PERIODS OF TIME ACROSS THE SW TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA. KDLH CC/ZDR DATA SUGGESTS THAT THE AMBIENT FREEZING LEVEL IS ONLY A FEW HUNDRED FEET AGL..AND IT APPEARS AS THOUGH ANY SMALL SCALE ENHANCEMENT TO PRECIP RATES IS SUFFICIENT TO RESULT IN LOCAL DIABATIC COOLING UNDERNEATH SMALL SCALE HEAVIER SHOWERS TO ALLOW A MIX OR ALL SNOW TO REACH THE GROUND. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS LOBE OF RADAR ECHOES TRANSLATES ESEWD. HOWEVER..WITH SURFACE TEMPS IN THE MID 30S/RELATIVELY WEAK SNOWFALL RATES..AND WARM AMBIENT GROUND TEMPS..ABOUT ALL THE ACCUMULATION THAT IS EXPECTED IN AREAS FARTHER SOUTH IS SOME CRUSTING ON VEHICLES AND OTHER ELEVATED AND EXPOSED SURFACES. WE HAVE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST TO REFLECT THE MORE SNOWY SOLUTION ACROSS THE NORTH..ALONG WITH HIGHER POPS AND SIGHTLY COLDER TEMPS. UPDATES ARE ALREADY AVAILABLE. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014 TONIGHT...THE LARGE SCALE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP SFC/MID LVL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL KEEP A CANOPY OF LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIP OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT. AS MID LVL LOW MIGRATES EAST...THE SFC TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTH FROM ONTARIO THIS EVENING. PTYPE WILL TRANSITION TO A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW AND PERHAPS A PERIOD OF WET SNOW. VERY TOUGH TO DETERMINE POTENTIAL AMOUNTS THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS IS DUE TO THE MARGINAL BDRY LYR THERMAL PROFILES AND DEPENDENCY OF DIABATIC COOLING/SNOW PRODUCTION UPON AREAS OF ENHANCED VERTICAL MOTION. HI-RES PTYPE OUTPUT FROM HRRR IS RATHER SLOW TO MAKE THE TRANSITION TO FROZEN PRECIP OVERNIGHT. THE NAM12/RUC13 ARE FASTER IN COOLING THE NEAR SFC LAYER SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT THAT GREAT. GIVEN THAT SNOW HAS BEEN OCCURRING JUST WEST OF THE REGION DURING THE DIURNAL WARM PERIOD...WOULD THINK THAT WITH ADVENT OF NOCTURNAL BDRY LYR COOLING...WE SHOULD SEE THE TRANSITION OCCUR IN MOST OF NE MN ZONES BY MID/LATE EVENING. SOME LOCATIONS MAY SEE UP TO AN INCH ON ELEVATED DECKS OR GRASSY SURFACES. THE PROBABILISTIC PRODUCTS FROM SREF AND NARRE-TL FAVOR THE ARROWHEAD AND THE GOGEBIC RANGE FOR SOME ACCUMULATION. GUSTY WINDS WILL REMAIN BASED ON BUFKIT MOMENTUM PROFILES SUPPORTED BY THE PRESENCE OF A FAIRLY LARGE SFC PRESS GRADIENT OVER THE CWA UNTIL EARLY MORNING. TOMORROW...GRADUAL CLEARING OCCURS FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE SFC/MID LVL LOWS SHIFT WELL EAST OF THE REGION. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER DRYING IS FCST...MAJORITY OF NWP SUGGESTS RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN A SHALLOW LAYER NEAR 2K TO 3K FT. WILL MAINTAIN A MOSTLY CLOUDY FCST FOR NOW. PRECIP SHOULD EVENTUALLY DIMINISH EXCEPT OVER ERN EDGE OF CWA. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014 A WEAK MID LEVEL S/W AND ASSOCIATED INVERTED SFC TROUGH WILL TRACK EWD THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST WED NIGHT/THUR MORNING AND PRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW THROUGH THE REGION. A MORE POTENT UPPER S/W WILL DROP IN FROM THE NORTH AND USHER IN ADDITIONAL HIGHER CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS THUR AFTERNOON...EVENTUALLY CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW THUR NIGHT AND FRI MORNING. THE TRACK OF THE LOW...FROM NRN MANITOBA SEWD THROUGH WRN ONTARIO AND INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES WILL ALLOW THE BULK OF THE PRECIP TO FALL ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE LARGE SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE WILL OCCUR OVER WRN ONTARIO...CLIPPING THE ARROWHEAD AND IN THROUGH NRN WI AND EWD INTO THE U.P. OF MICH. A SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION AS THE S/W MOVES THROUGH AND MODIFIES THERMAL PROFILES ENOUGH TO CHANGE THE RAIN SHOWERS OVER TO SNOW LATE THURSDAY...AND ESPECIALLY THUR NIGHT/FRI MORNING. COULD SEE AROUND 1 INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATE OVER THE ARROWHEAD...WITH TRACE AMTS AROUND THE TWIN PORTS. THE AREA EXPECTING TO SEE THE MOST WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ACROSS THE SNOW BELT REGION OF ASHLAND AND IRON COUNTIES WHERE LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL ALLOW A QUICK 1-2 INCHES TO FALL DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FAVORABLE NORTH WINDS AND STEEP/MOIST BL LAPSE RATES WILL ALL CONTRIBUTE TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER SNOW AMTS IN THIS AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN QUICKLY FROM THE WEST ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST DURING THE REST OF THE DAY FRIDAY AND FURTHER EWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES FRI NIGHT/SAT MORNING. ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS HIGH...A SWLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE REGION AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE ROCKIES DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. WILL START TO SEE THE INFLUENCE FROM THIS NEXT SYSTEM FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN. THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SLIGHTLY EARLY IN THE PERIOD...AND THEN WARM GRADUALLY THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL DROP INTO THE 30S...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND SLIGHTLY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 40S AND LOWS IN THE 30S. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014 PRECIPITATION IN THE DECAYING DEFORMATION ZONE ACROSS NE MN HAS RAPIDLY WEAKENED IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY THIS EVENING..BUT STILL SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS PERIST AND WILL CONTINUE TO FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT ALONG WITH MVFR/IFR CEILINGS. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR..IF AT ALL ON WEDNESDAY WITH MVFR CEILINGS PERSISTING FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE MAY SPREAD SHOWERS INTO THE KBRD AREA AFTER 00Z THRUSDAY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 35 44 27 38 / 10 20 20 0 INL 26 37 22 38 / 10 30 10 0 BRD 32 48 25 38 / 20 20 10 0 HYR 33 47 29 40 / 10 30 30 10 ASX 33 47 30 40 / 10 30 40 20 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...NONE. WI...NONE. LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR LSZ121- 146>148. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR LSZ144-145. && $$ UPDATE...LE SHORT TERM...CANNON LONG TERM...HUYCK AVIATION...LE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
343 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR THU THROUGH FRI. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 340 AM WEDNESDAY... WATER VAPOR AND 00Z UPPER AIR DATA REVEAL A POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH ALOFT...WHICH INCLUDES SHORTWAVE TROUGHS IN BOTH THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS...FROM SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED AT 07Z JUST WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. ASIDE FROM SOUTHERN STREAM-GENERATED CIRRUS LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER...AND ALONG AND POST(ANA)-FRONTAL SHOWERS...ALSO REMAINED WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. A BLEND OF THE SLOWER ECMWF AND RAP FORECAST SOLUTIONS IS FAVORED GIVEN THAT THE ASSOCIATED COOLER POST-FRONTAL AIR HAS STILL NOT REACHED THE MOUNTAINS...AND THE FLOW ALOFT IS FRONT-PARALLEL/ SOUTHWESTERLY. AS SUCH...MODEST INSOLATION THROUGH THE CIRRUS AND PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER FROM THE WEST WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 70S WEST TO LOWER 80S EAST...WITH EXPECTED FROPA TIMING IN THE NW PIEDMONT BETWEEN 18- 21Z...THE TRIANGLE BETWEEN 21-23Z...AND THE COASTAL PLAIN AND EASTERN SANDHILLS BETWEEN 23-02Z. WHILE THE ONGOING SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS THEY APPROACH AND MOVE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS...REDEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY AS THE DIVERGENT RIGHT ENTRANCE OF A JET STREAK IN THE NORTHERN STREAM SPREADS EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC AND PROVIDES DEEPER/COUPLED ASCENT ATOP THE FRONTAL CIRCULATION THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE COUPLED FORCING...WEAK LAPSE RATES AND ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY WILL OTHERWISE HINDER PRECIPITATION INTENSITY...AND ONLY AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO IS EXPECTED AMIDST AN OTHERWISE BAND OF SHOWERS. THOUGH SOME 4-8 THOUSAND FT CLOUDINESS WILL LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THIS EVENING OWING TO THE ONLY SLOW APPROACH OF THE TROUGH ALOFT...CLEARING WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD EAST OVERNIGHT. CAA-DRIVEN LOWS MOSTLY BETWEEN 45 TO 55 DEGREES. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 310 AM WEDNESDAY... SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND UNDERLYING 1020 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE... BEHIND THE TROUGH ALOFT FORECAST TO MOVE INTO AND AFFECT THE EASTERN US DURING THE NEAR TERM...WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEYS AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES ON THU. THE RESULT WILL BE SUNNY AND COOLER CONDITIONS...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES. FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATES ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE PAC NW THIS MORNING WILL AMPLIFY SOUTHEASTWARD AND INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY FRI MORNING...WHILE A MUCH STRONGER ONE IN A PRONOUNCED EARLY SEASON ARCTIC STREAM AMPLIFIES SOUTH SOUTHEASTWARD FROM CENTRAL CANADA TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES DURING THE SAME TIME. DESPITE THE ASSOCIATED STEADILY FALLING HEIGHTS ALOFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE PAIR OF AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS...PRECEDING DRYNESS/LIMITED DEEP MOISTURE SUGGESTS THE MAIN IMPACT THROUGH FRI MORNING SHOULD BE MERELY AN UPTICK IN MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS AS THE FLOW ALOFT BACKS TO SOUTHWESTERLY THU NIGHT...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES WITHIN A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 40. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 310 AM WEDNESDAY... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA EARLY ON FRIDAY... AHEAD OF STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVING IN TO THE BASE OF A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US. RECENT MODEL TRENDS HAVE SHOWN THIS SHORTWAVE MOVING MUCH FURTHER SOUTHWARD THAN PREVIOUS RUNS... AND INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED MIDLEVEL FLOW... WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW CROSSING THE AREA AND INDUCING COASTAL SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT. THE RESULTING STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING BLUSTERY WINDS SATURDAY. IF THIS SCENARIO PLAYS OUT... WE WILL SEE A COLD AND WET DAY... WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S. HAVE BEGUN TO TREND HIGHS LOWER... AND INCREASED TO CHANCE POPS SATURDAY. AS NOTED BY WPC... THE FORECASTED PATTERN IS QUITE ANOMALOUS... AND THEREFORE CONFIDENCE REMAINS BELOW NORMAL AT THIS TIME. SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW WILL BRING CLEARING CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY... WHICH WILL WORK TO PARTIALLY OFFSET COLD ADVECTION... WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 50S. STRONG AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN TO THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY WILL MOVE DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY... WITH FROST AND POSSIBLY FREEZE POTENTIAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS. THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST ON TUESDAY... BEGINNING A MODERATING TREND IN TEMPERATURES... WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE 60S MONDAY AND TUESDAY. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 220 AM WEDNESDAY... ASIDE FROM A MEDIUM PROBABILITY OF LIFR-IFR STRATUS AT KFAY BETWEEN 10-14Z...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED BAND OF ALONG AND POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS - AND ASSOCIATED IFR-MVFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS - MOVES EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST ONLY AROUND 3 HOURS AT ANY ONE LOCATION. A PERIOD OF VFR CEILINGS BETWEEN 4-8 THOUSAND FT WILL LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS EVEN AFTER THE SHOWERS AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS MOVE EAST. OTHERWISE...SW SURFACE WINDS BETWEEN 7-13 KTS...STRONGEST AND OCCASIONALLY GUSTY INTO THE UPPER TEENS KTS AT FAY AND RWI...WILL VEER TO WNW OR NW BEHIND THE FRONT. OUTLOOK: THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG POLAR FRONT AND SUBSEQUENT DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG COASTAL LOW WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF RAIN...AND BLUSTERY NW WINDS...FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MWS NEAR TERM...MWS SHORT TERM...MWS LONG TERM...SEC AVIATION...MWS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
340 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014 TIMING OF THE EXIT OF THE LARGE CLOUD SHIELD OVER THE STATE...THEN CHANCES OF SHOWERS TODAY ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. CURRENTLY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED FROM NORTHERN MANITOBA ACROSS THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS AND INTO NEBRASKA. A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF HUDSON BAY. A LARGE CLOUD SHIELD OF WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW EXTENDED WESTWARD TO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. TO THE WEST...A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDED ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES FROM A LOW OVER ALBERTA SOUTHWARD ACROSS MONTANA AND WYOMING. THE CLOUD DECK CONTINUED TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE HUDSON BAY LOW CONTINUES MOVING NORTHEAST...AND AS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA FROM THE WEST. LATEST SAT PICS INDICATE THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CLOUD DECK WAS NEAR STANLEY...TO MANDAN/BISMARCK...TO NEAR FORT YATES. KEPT THE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. AS SKIES CLEAR...RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPS THAT MAY DROP QUICKLY...CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SHOULD HAVE THESE CONDITIONS IN THOSE FEW HOURS BEFORE/AROUND SUNRISE. THE LATEST HRRR RUNS INDICATE THE CLOUD DECK SHOULD CLEAR THE JAMESTOWN AREA BEFORE NOON. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE LOW LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY FIELD OF THE NAM. FOLLOWING THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVING IN FROM THE WEST IS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO ENTER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BEFORE/AROUND NOON...AND MOVE EAST ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE STATE. EXPECTING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING LATE MORNING IN THE WEST...AND KEPT CHANCES IN FOR ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LINGERING CHANCES IN THE JAMES VALLEY THIS EVENING. TONIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW THE EXITING SURFACE LOW...AND WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY...GOOD COLD ADVECTION WILL BEGIN...AND A LARGE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014 STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE GREAT PLAINS WILL GENERATE DRY CONDITIONS OVER NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST AS COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG A SHORTWAVE TO LIFT SOMEWHERE INTO EASTERN MONTANA/WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE ECMWF/GEM HAVE WEAKENED THE SHORTWAVE AND HAVE NUDGED ITS TRACK A LITTLE FARTHER WEST INTO MONTANA. HOWEVER...THE LATEST GFS IS SLOWER AND STRONGER WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM...PLACING IT OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY. IF THE GFS WERE TO VERIFY...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WOULD BE AN ISSUE OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY. GIVEN THE MODEL TO MODEL AND RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCIES...WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST A MODEL BLEND. GIVEN THE RECENT WEAKENING ECMWF AND GEM TRENDS...WILL NOT GET TOO EXCITED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES SUNDAY-MONDAY. IT IS EXPECTED THAT LATER RUNS OF THE GFS WILL BEGIN TO TREND TOWARDS THE ECMWF AS IT HAS ALL SEASON. NEVERTHELESS...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN FORECAST TUESDAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1255 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014 MVFR TO LOW VFR STRATUS HAS CLEARED AT CROSBY...KISN...KDIK AND GLEN ULLIN. CLEARING IS NEAR TIOGA AND SHOULD CLEAR AT KBIS AROUND 08Z AND AT KMOT AROUND 10Z. KEPT MVFR VSBYS IN FOG AT KBIS AND KMOT ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STRATUS. CLEARING AT KJMS AROUND 16Z. SOME SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS TODAY BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH REGARDING MENTION IN TAFS. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JV LONG TERM...TM AVIATION...JV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
331 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014 UPPER LOW MOVING INTO EASTERN ONTARIO EARLY THIS MORNING. ISSUE TODAY WILL BE CLOUD TRENDS AND THEN CHANCE OF PRECIP WITH NEXT WEAK SHORT WAVE FOR LATER TODAY/THIS. WRAPAROUND STRATOCU FIELD BEHIND UPPER LOW EXTENDS BACK OVER ALL OF SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH DAKOTA AND ALL OF MINNESOTA. BACKEDGE HAS BEEN CLEARING SLOWLY AND IS NEAR A STANLEY TO BISMARCK LINE AND TIMING TOOLS SHOW AT ITS CURRENT RATE IT WILL REACH WRN FCST AREA BY 15Z AND INTO THE RRV BUT PERHAPS NOT AS LATE AS 21-23Z. USING THE SFC RIDGE AXIS AS BACKEDGE OF THE STRATOCU AND LATEST HRRR IT WOULD HAVE CLEARING TRYING TO COME INTO THE VALLEY 18Z-19Z. CLOUDS WILL PUT A DAMPER ON TEMPS. NEXT SHORT WAVE IS PACIFIC MOISTURE IN NATURE AND IS MOVING INTO WESTERN MONTANA. THIS WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE TODAY AND SPREAD THRU ERN ND THIS EVENING AND INTO MINNESOTA TONIGHT. EXPECT A FEW RAIN SHOWERS WITH THIS SYSTEM THOUGH WITH MOISTURE PACIFIC IN NATURE AND MOSTLY MID LEVEL BASED AMOUNTS OF PRECIP WILL BE QUITE LOW...A FEW HUNDREDTHS AT BEST. TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM IS A BIT SLOWER THAN IT SHOWED ON PAST DAYS. BEHIND THIS SHORT WAVE...A FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE NOW WELL NORTH OF YELLOWKNIFE NWT WILL MOVE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AND TOWARD THE MN ARROWHEAD THURSDAY AFTN. EXPECT A FAST MOVING BUT SHARP COLD FRONT TO DROP SOUTH THRU THE AREA THURSDAY ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTH WINDS. MODELS HAVE HAVE TRENDED A BIT COLDER WITH THIS SYSTEM AND ALSO A BIT FARTHER WEST WITH SFC HIGH PLACEMENT. WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS IN THE NORTHEASTERN FCST AREA FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTN. ALSO TRIMMED HIGHS THURSDAY A FEW DEGREES AND UPPED WINDS A BIT HIGHER THAN BLENDED SOLNS DUE TO TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND QUICK SHOT OF STRONG 850 MB COLD ADVECTION. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014 850 MB TEMPS DROP TO -10C BY 00Z FRI AS HIGH SETTLES SOUTH INTO CNTRL ND. EXPECT A CLEAR SKY FOR MOST AREAS WITH COLDEST VALUES AND LESS WIND IN CNTRL-ERN ND. PAST FEW RUNS HAVE SHOWN A BIT COLDER AIRMASS...AND WITH THAT DROPPED LOWS FOR FRI AM A FEW DEGREES...BUT NOT QUITE AS COLD AS SOME MODELS. GENERALLY WENT 15-20F FOR ERN ND AND 20-25 IN MN. FRIDAY WILL BE A CHILLY DAY WITH SUNSHINE WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE 30S. RETURN FLOW SETS UP LATE FRI AFTN IN WRN FCST AND SPREAD EAST FRI NIGHT. ALSO SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS FRI NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. FOR SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY WILL KEEP THINGS QUIET PCPN WISE BUT IT SHOULD BE A LITTLE BREEZY. START TO GET INTO SOUTHWEST FLOW ON SUNDAY AS A 500MB TROUGH DIGS INTO THE ROCKIES. MODELS DIFFER A LITTLE IN HOW TO HANDLE THE ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THIS SYSTEM WITH THE ECMWF/GEM SHOWING TWO WEAK SFC LOWS...ONE OVER WESTERN ND AND THE SECOND OVER EASTERN COLORADO. GFS HAS ONE COMBINED LOW OVER WESTERN NE. GUIDANCE FAVORS THE ECMWF/GEM SOLUTION WHICH WOULD HAVE SOME WEAK SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN FA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NORTHERN LOW. BY MONDAY EACH MODEL DIFFERS QUITE A BIT WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING THE NORTHERN SFC LOW DOMINANT WHILE THE GEM SHOWS THE SOUTHERN ONE MORE SO AND THE GFS IN BETWEEN. THIS TRANSLATES INTO THE ECMWF BYPASSING MOST OF THE FA WITH ANY PCPN...THE GFS RIGHT OVER THE FA AND THE GEM OVER THE SOUTHERN FA. WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THIS WORKS OUT WITH LATER RUNS. BY TUE DRY WEATHER SHOULD RETURN. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014 MVFR CONDITIONS WEST...IFR CONDITIONS EAST WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT ON WED. THE CURRENT CLEARING LINE IN WESTERN ND WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT...REACHING THE WESTERN AREA AROUND 12Z...THEN INTO THE VALLEY AROUND 18Z. THEN SOME MID CLOUDS MAY INCREASE LATER WED AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE. WINDS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AND SHIFT TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION WED AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...RIDDLE LONG TERM...GODON/RIDDLE AVIATION...DK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1254 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1255 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014 SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED FROM WESTERN MANITOBA ACROSS THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS AND INTO NEBRASKA. WINDS EAST OF THE RIDGE WERE NORTHWESTERLY...WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS...AND SOUTHEAST/SOUTH WINDS WEST OF THE RIDGE. THE CLOUD DECK CONTINUED TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST. LATEST SAT PICS INDICATE THE EDGE OF THE CLOUD DECK WAS NEAR CROSBY/TIOGA...JUST EAST OF GLEN ULLIN...TO NEAR MOBRIDGE SD. TEMPERATURES ARE THE TRICKIEST PORTION OF THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT PORTION OF THE FORECAST...AS TEMPS HAD DROPPED INTO THE TEENS IN SOME OF THE CLEAR AREAS OF THE SOUTHWEST. EXPECT THAT WHEN WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY IN THE WEST...THIS WILL ALLOW ENOUGH MIXING TO RAISE TEMPS THERE OR AT LEAST KEEP TEMPS FROM CONTINUING TO DROP. KEPT THE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. AS SKIES CLEAR...RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPS THAT MAY DROP QUICKLY...CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SHOULD HAVE THESE CONDITIONS IN THOSE FEW HOURS BEFORE/AROUND SUNRISE. UPDATE ISSUED AT 949 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014 CLOUD CONTINUE TO CLEAR SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST. UPDATED SKY GRIDS TO KEEP CLOUDS ACROSS THE EAST MOST OF THE NIGHT. WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED IN THE WEST...TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN QUICKLY INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES HERE. STILL MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG CENTRAL AS STRATUS CLEARS WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES REMAINING. UPDATE ISSUED AT 649 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014 STRATUS DECK CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING. THE SOUTHWEST HAS CLEARED WITH NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL EXPECTED TO CLEAR WEST TO EAST THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. KEPT A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STRATUS DECK LATER TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014 CLOUD TRENDS THROUGH TONIGHT AND A WARMER DAY ON WEDNESDAY HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. THE RAP AND HRRR HAVE HANDLED THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS WELL THROUGHOUT TODAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND WILL FOLLOW THEIR MOST RECENT ITERATIONS FOR CLOUD COVER THROUGH TONIGHT...NAMELY THEIR 18-19 UTC RUNS. STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY ERODE FAR SOUTHWEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON...NOT CLEARING THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY UNTIL CLOSER TO 12 UTC WEDNESDAY MORNING. DID ADD AREAS OF FOG ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STRATUS WHERE WINDS BECOME CALM. WILL ALSO CONTINUE THE PATCHY DRIZZLE MENTION DOWNSTREAM OF LAKE SAKAKAWEA EARLY THIS EVENING WITH STREAMERS CONTINUING TO COME OFF THE LAKE. RETURN FLOW COMMENCES TONIGHT ACROSS THE WEST AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA. THIS FRONT WILL PROPAGATE THROUGH THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 50S...WITH POSSIBLY A FEW READINGS IN THE 60S ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT...GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AREA WIDE AS A WEAK IMPULSE INTERACTS WITH THE FRONT. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014 A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS A SLOW MODERATING TREND GETS UNDERWAY...FOLLOWED BY A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. MUCH COLDER AIR CAN BE EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL. A HEADLINE MAY BE WARRANTED IN THE FUTURE IF THE SNOW/WINDS MAINTAIN CONSISTENCY IN FUTURE RUNS. AN EXITING LOW PRESSURE WEDNESDAY EVENING OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WILL PROVIDE FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY BEFORE ENDING. THEREAFTER...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DOMINATE WITH A DRY PATTERN...SHIFTING FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THURSDAY INTO NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY NIGHT...AND THEN EAST OF NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY. THE WARMEST POCKET OF AIR SLIDES THROUGH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT VIA A SOUTHWEST FLOW...AHEAD OF A SHARP COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM WHICH PASSES THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. IN DOING SO...EXPECT A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE UPPER/SURFACE LOW SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...TAKING IT ON A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TRACK FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND THEN ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA. THE GEM TAKES A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK...MOVING IT FROM SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA RESULTING IN A MORE BROAD/WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EVENT. ALL SOLUTIONS HOWEVER SHOW STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW SUNDAY INTO MONDAY IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS. REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN BLOWING/FALLING SNOW MAY BE THE GREATEST IMPACT AND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED IN FUTURE RUNS FOR POSSIBLE HEADLINES. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1255 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014 MVFR TO LOW VFR STRATUS HAS CLEARED AT CROSBY...KISN...KDIK AND GLEN ULLIN. CLEARING IS NEAR TIOGA AND SHOULD CLEAR AT KBIS AROUND 08Z AND AT KMOT AROUND 10Z. KEPT MVFR VSBYS IN FOG AT KBIS AND KMOT ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STRATUS. CLEARING AT KJMS AROUND 16Z. SOME SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS TODAY BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH REGARDING MENTION IN TAFS. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JV SHORT TERM...AYD LONG TERM...KS AVIATION...JV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
410 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT OVER NORTHWESTERN PA WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE REST OF THE STATE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL CARVE OUT A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS AS IT DIVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...REPLACED BY A RIDGE BUILDING ALONG THE EAST COAST. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/... COLD FRONT PUSHING THRU CENTRAL PA EARLY THIS AM...ACCOMPANIED BY A PERIOD A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS. VEERING UPPER LVL FLOW AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE OVR THE MISS VALLEY WILL CAUSE FRONT TO SLOW THIS MORNING. LATEST NEAR TERM MDL DATA AND UPSTREAM RADAR DATA SUPPORTS A NARROW BAND OF CATEGORICAL POPS EARLY THIS MORNING FROM THE SC MTNS NE INTO THE MIDDLE SUSQ VALLEY. TEMPS COASTING DOWNWARD WEST OF FRONT AND BLEND OF LATEST LAMP AND HRRR DATA SUPPORTS TEMPS BY DAWN RANGING FROM THE M40S OVR THE NW MTNS TO THE U50S ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... ALL MDL DATA PUSHES COLD FRONT EAST OF THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THERMALLY DIRECT CIRCULATION BENEATH UPPER JET ENTRANCE REGION IS RESULTING IN POST-FRONTAL 700-850MB FGEN FORCING IN ALL THE MDLS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN PERSISTENT SHOWERS ACROSS THE SE COUNTIES INTO THIS AFTN. HAVE RAISED POPS TO NEAR 90 PCT ACROSS THIS REGION TODAY...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE 00Z GEFS. BRIGHTENING SKIES SHOULD EVENTUALLY OVERSPREAD THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN COUNTIES BY LATE AFTN. HOWEVER...LAKE EFFECT STRATOCU WILL ALSO BE FORMING IN THE NW...AS CHILLY AIR FLOWS OVER STILL- WARM LAKE ERIE. THE CLOUD COVER AND CAA SHOULD TRANSLATE TO LITTLE WARMING FROM AM LOWS TODAY. CONSALL INDICATES HIGHS FROM THE L50S NW TO L60S OVR THE SUSQ VALLEY. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... MODEL CONSENSUS IS STILL ON TRACK FOR A QUICK MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM DROPPING FROM CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL PA LATE FRIDAY. THIS WILL DELIVER A POTENT SHOT OF COLD AIR FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND PERHAPS THE FIRST MEASURABLE SNOWFALL FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN PA. CERTAINLY SOME STRENGTH AND TIMING ISSUES NEED TO BE RESOLVED WITH THE SUCCESSIVE SHORTWAVES. HOWEVER THE LATEST EC AND THE GFS SUGGESTS THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL BE LATE FRIDAY THRU EARLY SATURDAY. THE NEXT QUESTION IS WILL THE PRECIPITATION BE RAIN OR SNOW. IT CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE A MIX OF BOTH. THE COLDER AIR ON THE BACKSIDE WILL LIKELY CHANGE THE SHRA TO A PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WEST AND NORTH...FOLLOWED BY BLUSTERY AND MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS SATURDAY WITH LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVR THE NW MTNS. LATEST 850 MB TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED A BIT TO -4C TO -8C. SO DEPENDING IF THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES THAT SHOULD DETERMINE HOW MUCH...IF ANY...SNOW FALLS DURING THIS PERIOD. THE EC AND GFS DIVERGE LATE THIS COMING WEEKEND...WITH THE GFS TAKING THE UPPER LEVEL LOW FURTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC BEFORE MOVING IT NORTH...WHERE THE EC DRAGS THE LOW ALONG THE COAST. GIVEN THE CLEAR SKIES...HOWEVER SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE COLD. EITHER WAY...DRY AIR WILL FILTER IN EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING A WARMING TREND WITH FAIR WEATHER. && .AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SFC COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM KBGM TO KIPT AND KAOO AT 07Z. THIS FRONT WAS PRECEDED BY AN AREA OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH CLOUD BASES MAINLY AOA 7 KFT AGL...AND VSBYS OF 6SM OR GREATER. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE MTNS OF WESTERN PENN TODAY /FROM KJST NORTH TO KBFD/...THANKS TO OROGRAPHIC LIFT OF A COOLER/WESTERLY FLOW CONTAINING LIMITED LLVL MOISTURE. BRIEF...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THROUGH 15Z TODAY INVOF KMDT AND KLNS AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE INTENSITY. EXPECT WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS TO PICK UP SOME BY LATE THIS MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL VALLEYS AND SUSQUEHANNA REGION UNDER A BKN HIGH-BASED STRATO CU AND ALTO CU CLOUD DECK. OUTLOOK... THUR...MVFR CIGS WEST EARLY...THEN VFR. VFR EAST. FRI...VFR/MVFR EARLY WITH SHOWERS POSS WEST...BCMG MVFR/IFR FRI NGT WITH NW WIND GUSTS 20-30 MPH AND RA/SN SHOWERS. SAT...MVFR/IFR WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WEST. VARYING VFR- MVFR CONDS CENTRAL/EAST WITH OCNL -SHSN AND FLURRIES. NW WIND GUSTS 25-35 MPH. SUN...BECOMING VFR...WINDS DECREASING. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD SHORT TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU AVIATION...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
219 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT OVER NORTHWESTERN PA WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE REST OF THE STATE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL CARVE OUT A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS AS IT DIVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...REPLACED BY A RIDGE BUILDING ALONG THE EAST COAST. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/... COLD FRONT PUSHING THRU CENTRAL PA EARLY THIS AM...ACCOMPANIED BY A PERIOD A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS. VEERING UPPER LVL FLOW AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE OVR THE MISS VALLEY WILL CAUSE FRONT TO SLOW THIS MORNING. LATEST NEAR TERM MDL DATA AND UPSTREAM RADAR DATA SUPPORTS A NARROW BAND OF CATEGORICAL POPS EARLY THIS MORNING FROM THE SC MTNS NE INTO THE MIDDLE SUSQ VALLEY. TEMPS COASTING DOWNWARD WEST OF FRONT AND BLEND OF LATEST LAMP AND HRRR DATA SUPPORTS TEMPS BY DAWN RANGING FROM THE M40S OVR THE NW MTNS TO THE U50S ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... ALL MDL DATA PUSHES COLD FRONT EAST OF THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THERMALLY DIRECT CIRCULATION BENEATH UPPER JET ENTRANCE REGION IS RESULTING IN POST-FRONTAL 700-850MB FGEN FORCING IN ALL THE MDLS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN PERSISTENT SHOWERS ACROSS THE SE COUNTIES INTO THIS AFTN. HAVE RAISED POPS TO NEAR 90 PCT ACROSS THIS REGION TODAY...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE 00Z GEFS. BRIGHTENING SKIES SHOULD EVENTUALLY OVERSPREAD THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN COUNTIES BY LATE AFTN. HOWEVER...LAKE EFFECT STRATOCU WILL ALSO BE FORMING IN THE NW...AS CHILLY AIR FLOWS OVER STILL- WARM LAKE ERIE. THE CLOUD COVER AND CAA SHOULD TRANSLATE TO LITTLE WARMING FROM AM LOWS TODAY. CONSALL INDICATES HIGHS FROM THE L50S NW TO L60S OVR THE SUSQ VALLEY. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... MODEL CONSENSUS IS STILL ON TRACK FOR A QUICK MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM DROPPING FROM CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL PA LATE FRIDAY. THIS WILL DELIVER A POTENT SHOT OF COLD AIR FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND PERHAPS THE FIRST MEASURABLE SNOWFALL FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN PA. CERTAINLY SOME STRENGTH AND TIMING ISSUES NEED TO BE RESOLVED WITH THE SUCCESSIVE SHORTWAVES. HOWEVER THE LATEST EC AND THE GFS SUGGESTS THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL BE LATE FRIDAY THRU EARLY SATURDAY. THE NEXT QUESTION IS WILL THE PRECIPITATION BE RAIN OR SNOW. IT CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE A MIX OF BOTH. THE COLDER AIR ON THE BACKSIDE WILL LIKELY CHANGE THE SHRA TO A PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WEST AND NORTH...FOLLOWED BY BLUSTERY AND MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS SATURDAY WITH LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVR THE NW MTNS. LATEST 850 MB TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED A BIT TO -4C TO -8C. SO DEPENDING IF THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES THAT SHOULD DETERMINE HOW MUCH...IF ANY...SNOW FALLS DURING THIS PERIOD. THE EC AND GFS DIVERGE LATE THIS COMING WEEKEND...WITH THE GFS TAKING THE UPPER LEVEL LOW FURTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC BEFORE MOVING IT NORTH...WHERE THE EC DRAGS THE LOW ALONG THE COAST. GIVEN THE CLEAR SKIES...HOWEVER SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE COLD. EITHER WAY...DRY AIR WILL FILTER IN EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING A WARMING TREND WITH FAIR WEATHER. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... 03Z TAFS SENT. SOME ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO TIMING OF THE SHOWERS. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW. GUSTY WINDS HAVE WEAKEN ACROSS THE AREA AS OF 00Z. MAIN CONCERN NOW IS SHOWERS WITH MVFR AND PERHAPS IFR CONDITIONS FOR A BRIEF TIME...MAINLY AT BFD WITH COLD FRONT. PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM...BUT LEFT OUT OF THE BFD TAF FOR NOW. PERHAPS SOME FOG LATE AT LNS. MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN VFR OVERNIGHT AND EARLY WED. EXPECT WINDS TO PICK UP SOME BY LATE WED MORNING...ALONG WITH A BKN CIG...BUT VFR CONDITIONS. OUTLOOK... THUR...MVFR CIGS WEST EARLY...THEN VFR. VFR EAST. FRI...VFR/MVFR EARLY WITH SHOWERS POSS WEST...BCMG MVFR/IFR FRI NGT WITH NW WIND GUSTS 20-30 MPH AND RA/SN SHOWERS. SAT...MVFR/IFR WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WEST. VARYING VFR- MVFR CONDS CENTRAL/EAST WITH OCNL -SHSN AND FLURRIES. NW WIND GUSTS 25-35 MPH. SUN...BECOMING VFR...WINDS DECREASING. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD SHORT TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
339 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST TODAY...WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING. STRATUS IS SLOW TO CLEAR EARLY THIS MORNING AS WE REMAIN MORE MIXED THAN MOST MODELS SHOW. THE RAP SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THINGS...AND THUS FOLLOWED CLOSEST TO IT AND SLOWED DOWN EXIT OF CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING. THE BACK EDGE OF THE STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH EAST AND BY LATE MORNING MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY. WILL BE ANOTHER COOL DAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S OVER SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA TO THE MID AND UPPER 50S WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER. AN UPPER WAVE WILL QUICKLY PUSH ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THUS EXPECTING INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. BEST QG FORCING DOES GO OVER OUR CWA...HOWEVER BEST MOISTURE STAYS TO THE NORTH. THUS THINKING WE MAINLY JUST SEE CLOUDS AND VIRGA...WITH MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION NOT ABLE TO PUSH THROUGH THE DRY LOWER LEVELS. HOWEVER FORCING IS STRONG ENOUGH THAT CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS REACHING THE GROUND...AND THUS EXPANDED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO INCLUDE MOST LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY STAY IN THE 40S MOST OF THE NIGHT...HOWEVER WITH LIGHT WINDS...READINGS IN ANY CLEAR POCKETS WILL DROP INTO THE 30S. AND WITH MORE WIDESPREAD CLEARING EXPECTED LATE THINK MOST AREAS WILL SEE LOWS IN THE 30S. COLD FRONT WILL MAKE IT TO ABOUT INTERSTATE 29 BY 12Z...AND WITH INCREASED MIXING BEHIND THE FRONT...PROBABLY WILL SEE A SLIGHT WARMING AND A BIT OF A NORTHWESTERLY BREEZE DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE WEST. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014 THURSDAY IS HIGHLIGHTED BY A HASTENING OF THE PACE OF THE NEXT SURGE OF COLD AIR ADVECTION. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER WAVE RAPIDLY DEPARTS BUT IN ITS WAKE...IS A STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVING DOWN FROM WESTERN ONTARIO TO NORTHERN MN. COLD HIGH PRESSURE...CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 1035 AND 1040MB FILLS IN ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THEREFORE THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE A DAY SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAD YESTERDAY...BLUSTERY...COOL... AND WHAT COULD BE PLENTY OF COLD AIR ADVECTION STRATUS FOR MANY AREAS OTHER THAN POSSIBLY OUR MO RIVER VALLEY AREAS. THEREFORE NOTCHED UP THE NORTHERLY WINDS AND FOR TEMPERATURES...THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE VALUES HAVE MARKEDLY COOLED THE HIGHS OFF. NOTICED THAT THE AFTERNOON 900-850MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE NOT A WHOLE LOT DIFFERENT THAN WHAT THEY WERE YESTERDAY. SO BLENDED THE VERY CHILLY BIAS CORRECTED GEM GLOBAL AND BIAS CORRECTED MAV INTO THE CONSENSUS GUIDANCE. THIS COOLED HIGHS OFF INTO THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO MID 50S SOUTH. BUT IF THE STRATUS GETS AS INTRUSIVE AS IT WAS ON TUESDAY...THEN EVEN THESE HIGHS ARE PROBABLY A CATEGORY TOO WARM. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT ARE TRICKY...IN THAT THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL CAUSE SOME LINGERING MIXING POTENTIAL EAST OF INTERSTATE 29. IN ADDITION...THERE IS A QUESTION OF HOW QUICKLY THE FORECAST STRATUS WILL EXIT...AT LEAST IN OUR EASTERN ZONES. WOULD NOT BE AT ALL SURPRISED IF THE STRATUS LINGERS LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED... THEREFORE DID NOT GO WITH THE COLDEST GUIDANCE VALUES ON THURSDAY EXCEPT IN OUR FAR WEST. CONSENSUS VALUES LOOKED PRETTY GOOD FOR OUR EASTERN ZONES...BUT HAVE CLOSE TO 20 DEGREES FOR CHAMBERLAIN AND HURON. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY EXHIBIT A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER FLOW WITH STRONG RIDGING IN THE MIDDLE PART OF THE COUNTRY. FRIDAY WILL BE COOL ONCE AGAIN BUT WITH MUCH LESS WIND AS THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. BUT THEN A TIGHT GRADIENT WILL RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH STOUT WINDS OFF THE SURFACE. WINDY SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 35 MPH SHOULD EASILY PREVAIL ON SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES STILL BELOW NORMAL AS THE COOL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE EAST INFLUENCES OUR WEATHER FOR ANOTHER DAY. THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER INDEX WILL LIKELY REACH THE VERY HIGH CATEGORY ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...AND WILL BE CONVEYED IN THE FORTHCOMING HWO. FOR SUNDAY...CONSENSUS TEMPERATURES LOOKED A LITTLE COOL GIVEN THE ECMWF AND GFS 900MB TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF I 29. THEREFORE BLENDED THE MORE MILD BIAS CORRECTED ECMWF VALUES INTO THE MIX TO BUMP THE READINGS UP A CATEGORY OR TWO. THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE A BIT IN HOW THEY HANDLE THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. AT THIS TIME...THE ECMWF LOOKS A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE GFS. BUT AT ANY RATE...DECENT RAIN CHANCES LOOK MINIMAL AS THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE TAKES OVER AND CUTS OFF THE DEEP MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES LOOK UNEVENTFUL AND CLOSE TO NORMAL ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BUT MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE PRETTY BREEZY AGAIN WITH NORTHWEST WINDS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1047 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014 VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 30/06Z. CEILINGS 3.5K TO 5K FEET WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE OVER THE AREA THROUGH 29/15Z. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...CHENARD LONG TERM...MJ AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1142 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014 .AVIATION... VFR CIGS EXIST AT THIS HOUR ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AS THE WEAK FRONT CONTINUES TO CRAWL SOUTH. STILL EXPECTING CIGS TO DROP TO MVFR BY 07Z AT THE I-35 TERMINALS AND BY 10Z AT DRT. CONDITIONS WILL NOT IMPROVE TO VFR UNTIL 19Z TO 21Z ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS THAT ARE CURRENTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE...WILL TURN MORE NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW BUT REMAIN LIGHT (LESS THAN 10 KNOTS). TREADWAY && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 849 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014/ UPDATE... SHOWERS HAVE FAILED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED FRONT ON THE NORTHERN BORDER OF OUR AREA. THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL AS THE LOW- LEVEL JET REACHES IT/S DIURNAL MAXIMUM LATER TONIGHT. THE FORECAST WAS JUST UPDATED THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY TO RE-TREND FROM THE CURRENT CONDITIONS. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST OTHER THAN REMOVAL OF POPS BEFORE 06Z AND A REDUCTION IN CLOUDCOVER THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014/ AVIATION... A WEAK COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY. IT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS OVERNIGHT. WHILE NUMERICAL MODELS AND MODEL CROSS SECTIONS KEEP MOST OF THE AREA VFR THROUGH THE NIGHT...HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS (THE HRRR AND SIMULATED SATELLITE WRF) SUGGEST MVFR CIGS BEGINNING AROUND 05Z AT THE I-35 TERMINALS AND AROUND 10Z AT DRT. HAVE SIDED WITH THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS. SOME DRIZZLE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TOMORROW AFTERNOON BETWEEN 19Z AND 21Z ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT AUS BY 02Z...AND SAT/SSF/DRT BY 05Z. WIND SPEEDS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS. TREADWAY PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014/ SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...THE COLD FRONT HAS SLOWED ITS SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT AT 3 PM STRETCHED FROM JUST SOUTH OF DALLAS THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS...THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY AND INTO VAL VERDE COUNTY. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE SOUTH TONIGHT...REACHING CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. LIGHT WINDS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE SHALLOW FRONT TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE FRONT NOW LOOKS TO SLIP JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS OF THE CWA ENDING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. COOLER ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...POSSIBLY LOWER 80S ACROSS SOUTHERN CWA. LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS WHILE DOWNSTREAM TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL SEND A RE-ENFORCING COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY. MOISTURE IS POOLED ALONG THE RIO GRANDE... AND 12Z GFS/NAM12/CMC ARE ALL INDICATING LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA AHEAD OF THIS FRONT FRIDAY. FOR NOW AM DISCOUNTING ECMWF QPF ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. DRIER AIR DOES FILTER INTO THE REGION FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. COOL AND DRY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE. LOWS SATURDAY MORNING COULD DIP INTO THE MID AND UPPER 40S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND CENTRAL TEXAS...LOW TO MID 50S SOUTHERN AREAS...AND UPPER 50S ALONG THE RIO GRANDE. RETURN FLOW SETS UP LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...WITH CLOUDS RETURNING QUICKLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES. A FEW WEAK STREAMER SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH NOT MENTIONED IN OFFICIAL FORECAST. FORECAST IS BECOMING MORE INTERESTING EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN FURTHER ON MONDAY...AHEAD OF A DEEP TROUGH THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...DESERT SOUTHWEST AND BAJA CALIFORNIA. AGAIN...ISOLATED STREAMER SHOWERS POSSIBLE MONDAY AND MENTIONED IN FORECAST. SOME DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS WITH HOW QUICKLY THE TROUGH MOVES EAST...WITH THE 12Z ECMWF FASTER INTO THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...LEAVING BEHIND LOW CUTT OFF WEST OF BAJA. GFS IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER...WITH TROUGH COMING OUT TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...AND SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE TROUGH NOT CUTTING OFF...MOVING DEEP THROUGH MEXICO AND TEXAS. THE GFS ABSORBS THE NEXT PACIFIC TROPICAL SYSTEM INTO THE TROUGH...WITH DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC TAP OF REMNANT MOISTURE AND ENERGY MOVING RIGHT TROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS TUESDAY...COINCIDING WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT. STARTED AN UPWARD TREND IN THE POPS FOR TUESDAY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS...NOW INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY. SHOULD THE PACIFIC TAP VERIFY...THEN POPS COULD END UP MUCH HIGHER...AND BENEFICIAL QPF AMOUNTS GIVEN THEN HIGH PWATS FOR EARLY NOVEMBER. GIVEN DAY 7 FORECAST...MAY TAKE A FEW MORE DAYS FOR MODEL CONSENSUS TO DEVELOP. STAY TUNED. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 83 64 78 59 82 / 10 20 20 10 10 AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 83 63 78 56 81 / - 20 20 10 10 NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 85 65 79 60 82 / - 20 20 10 10 BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 80 59 75 56 78 / 10 20 10 10 10 DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 78 65 76 64 84 / - 20 20 10 10 GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 81 60 77 56 80 / 10 20 20 10 10 HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 80 65 79 58 84 / - 20 20 10 10 SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 84 64 78 58 82 / - 20 20 10 10 LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 85 64 79 58 80 / - 20 20 10 10 SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 84 65 79 62 82 / - 20 20 10 10 STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 85 67 80 62 83 / - 20 20 10 10 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ MESOSCALE/AVIATION...12 SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...26
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1118 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014 .AVIATION... /6Z TAFS/ VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WITH NORTH WINDS AROUND 10KTS MOST LOCATIONS. THERE ARE SOME PATCHES OF SCT/BKN CIGS AROUND 5000FT FROM WACO NORTHEAST TO TYLER. MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS WEAKENED AND MOVED WELL EAST OF THE AREA. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS BECOMING EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST OF THE AREA. OUTSIDE OF THE SCT/BKN CIGS MENTIONED EARLIER...NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH THE PERIOD. DUNN && .UPDATE... SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPED NEAR THE COLD FRONT LATE AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AT AROUND 10 MPH AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO COULD DEVELOP THIS EVENING. HAVE MADE A QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST THE POPS REMOVING AREAS ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A LAMPASAS TO WACO TO EMORY LINE. HAVE ALSO INCREASED THE POPS A LITTLE FOR THIS EVENING SOUTHEAST OF AN ATHENS TO GROESBECK LINE. 58 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014/ THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTH TEXAS AREA. PATCHES OF LOWER CLOUDS ARE EVIDENT ON SATELLITE...BUT RADAR CURRENTLY ONLY SHOWS WEAK SHOWER ACTIVITY NEAR GILMER IN EAST TEXAS. HRRR STILL SHOWS SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING SO HAVE LEFT LOW POPS IN THAT AREA. MODERATE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S/LOW 80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S/60S THROUGH FRIDAY. THEN THE NEXT SHOT OF REINFORCING COLD AIR PUSHES IN ON FRIDAY. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW LOWS TO DROP INTO THE 40S NORTH AND LOW 50S FAR SOUTH. SATURDAY HIGHS WILL SIT IN THE 60S IN ALL BUT THE SOUTH AND WEST WHERE LOW 70S ARE EXPECTED. IN THE EXTENDED...GFS/ECMWF ADVERTISE A GOOD RAIN EVENT MONDAY/TUESDAY...WITH THE GFS ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. ECMWF CUTS THIS MOISTURE OFF IN MEXICO. HAVE HIGH CHANCE POPS DURING THAT TIME FRAME DUE TO MODEL AGREEMENT...BUT WILL RESERVE JUDGMENT ON THE TROPICAL MOISTURE. IF IT OCCURS...QPF MAY BE MUCH HIGHER THAN IF IT GETS TRAPPED IN MEXICO. 84 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 56 77 53 77 53 / 10 0 0 10 5 WACO, TX 57 77 53 78 55 / 10 10 5 10 5 PARIS, TX 52 74 46 73 49 / 10 5 5 10 5 DENTON, TX 49 76 47 76 49 / 10 0 0 10 5 MCKINNEY, TX 51 76 46 75 50 / 10 5 0 10 5 DALLAS, TX 56 77 55 76 55 / 10 0 0 10 5 TERRELL, TX 55 76 51 76 52 / 10 5 5 10 5 CORSICANA, TX 58 76 52 76 53 / 20 10 5 10 5 TEMPLE, TX 60 77 55 79 55 / 20 20 10 10 5 MINERAL WELLS, TX 51 77 49 77 50 / 5 0 0 10 5 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ Area Forecast Discussion NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 1052 AM CDT Wed Oct 29 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1048 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014 A mostly sunny morning for most of Central Illinois is slowly giving way to developing clouds building in from the north. Cool conditions behind the front as high pressure builds back into the region. Temps a little slow to rise over the area and clouds north of I-74 are going to complicate that a bit more. Have bumped the highs down a degree or so and adjusted the hourly temps... but a major update is not anticipated in this quiet weather pattern. && .SHORT TERM...(Today) ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014 Surface high pressure will begin to build into the state today, but not until this afternoon. This morning, however, a large area of clouds continues to move southeast-east in connection with a mid level trough that is rotating through the Great Lakes region. Satellite trends indicate that some of these clouds will advect into northern parts of the area this morning and then should move east through the day, leaving the CWA later this afternoon. So, this morning, looking at partly sunny skies in the north, roughly north of a Canton to Bloomington line. Satellite also indicates there are some breaks in the clouds, so believe sunshine this morning should help some to burn some of it off. CU rule does have some CU developing, but only in the scattered range. Remainder of the CWA should be mostly sunny to sunny. Despite the sunshine today, cooler temperatures, below normal, have returned to the area. Looking for temperatures in the 50s by this afternoon, which is really close to both the MET and MAV guidance. && .LONG TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday) ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014 Northwest upper level flow will persist into the weekend, helping to keep temperatures below normal, with coldest air from Friday through this weekend. A hard freeze still looks likely Friday night with lows in the upper 20s across much of central/se IL and a freeze watch will likely eventually be needed overnight Friday night into early Saturday morning. Weak high pressure around 1022 mb over the central plains to drift east over IL by overnight and bring fair skies and light winds with cool lows in the mid to upper 30s, with patchy frost overnight from Lincoln eastward into IN. Some high clouds increase over western areas later tonight and get a return se flow to limit frost formation in western IL tonight. A weak disturbance over the Pacific Northwest, is expected to dive se across MO Thursday afternoon, and into the TN river valley by overnight Thu night. This to bring a chance of rain showers to central IL by Thu afternoon and evening and shifting east of I-57 overnight Thu night. The 00Z models, especially NAM model, have increased rain chances and qpf amounts over our CWA with this weather system. Highs Thu in the middle to upper 50s with mildest readings sw areas and se IL. Chances of showers will shift east into IN Friday where strong upper level trof digs over the eastern states. Models have trended stronger with this trof and also windier and colder over IL with more qpf just east of IL over IN/OH/KY. Wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph on Friday and Friday evening along with highs only in the 40s Friday will not make for very nice weather for trick or treaters Friday evening. Stronger Canadian surface high pressure of 1034 mb settling into the Midwest Friday night, will produce good radiational cooling conditions overnight Friday night and a likely hard freeze later Friday night and early Saturday morning. Chilly highs Sat in the mid to upper 40s. Another freeze likely Sat night with lows in the upper 20s eastern IL and lower 30s central and western IL. Highs Sunday in the upper 40s and lower 50s. After a chilly first weekend of November (and a sharp contrast from the warm weekend the last weekend of October), temperatures will moderate a bit during the 1st half of next work week with highs 55-60F Monday-Wednesday. Upper level flow becomes more southwesterly and unsettled over IL early next work week and a frontal boundary to set up from the southern plains ne into the Ohio river valley. This likely to bring widespread rain of a half to 1 inch to the region from Monday into Tuesday with isolated thunderstorms possible south of I-72. The rain showers should diminish to slight chances on Wed as frontal boundary weakens as it sags south of IL. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning) ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014 VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites next 24hrs. An area of clouds around 4kft continues to advect into the area this morning, and will effect all sites today. Based on satellite trends and timing tools, looks like the broken cigs will be at PIA and BMI around start of TAF forecast. Believe these broken cigs will last til this evening, when it will become clear for tonight. Satellite trends and HRRR model cloud forecast looks like the clouds will thin as they continue to move southeast. Therefore, will be going with just scattered clouds for the other three TAF sites, SPI/DEC/CMI; but, will also include a 4hr TEMPO group for broken cigs during the morning hours. Skies will clear at these three sites around 00-02z as well, staying clear the remainder of the TAF period. Winds will be west to northwest today at around 10-15kts, but then become light and variable tonight. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...HJS SHORT TERM...Auten LONG TERM...07 AVIATION...Auten
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
911 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014 .DISCUSSION... 315 AM CDT SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING...THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH WINDS AND CLOUD COVER, LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A STRATOCU DECK SPREADING ACROSS NRN IL...ASSOCIATED WITH A SECONDARY SURGE OF COOLER AIR AROUND THE SWRN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR JAMES BAY. CLEAR SKIES PREVAILED OVER THE CWA THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH AS RADIATIONAL COOLING ALLOWED A NOCTURNAL INVERSION TO FORM...DECOUPLING THE LOWER LEVELS FROM STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. HOWEVER...AS THE WRAPAROUND CLOUD COVER OVERSPREADS THE REGION...WINDS WILL PICK UP ONCE AGAIN...AND PER UPSTREAM OBS. EXPECT THAT THE WEAKER WSWLY WINDS WILL VEER TO MORE WNWLY AND GUST UP TO ARND 25KT. THE STRONGER WINDS AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD ONLY COVER LOCATIONS GENERALLY NORTH OF THE ILLINOIS AND KANKAKEE RIVERS...PER LATEST MODEL RH GUIDANCE AND TIMING OF THE LEADING EDGE OF THE CLOUD DECK...SO THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA SHOULD REMAIN UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHTER WINDS. TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE EVEN LOWER THAN YESTERDAY AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER NWLY FLOW AT THE SFC AND ALOFT...WITH PERSISTENT COLD ADVECTION. HIGHS WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY REACH INTO THE UPPER 40S GENERALLY NORTH OF THE I-88 CORRIDOR WITH LOWER 50S TO THE SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OUT OF THE NRN PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE WRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. THIS SHOULD BRING DECREASING CLOUD COVER AS WELL AS DECREASING WINDS WITH THE DECREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT. BY EARLY THIS EVENING... WINDS SHOULD BECM NEAR CALM. THE CLEARING SKIES AND CALM WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING...AND WITH DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER 30S...TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S AS WELL. EVEN THE CHICAGO URBAN HEAT ISLAND AREA WILL GET QUITE CHILLY...WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 30S. KREIN THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... WHILE THE WEEK BEGAN ON A VERY MILD NOTE...WITH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S MON...THE WEEK CLOSES OUT AS NEARLY THE INVERSE OF HOW IT BEGAN. BROAD MID-LVL TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE BULK OF THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY REGIONS THUR...WITH A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE POISED TO SWEEP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY THUR. GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO SUGGEST WITH THIS FEATURE THAT A WEAK SFC FEATURE WILL DEVELOP NEAR NORTHEAST KS...WITH WEAK ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM SOME LGT PRECIP MAY OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA. THE SFC LOW THEN DEEPENS ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN LATE THUR NGT/EARLY FRI...AS A POTENT CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SLIDE SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS TIGHTENS QUICKLY FRI MORNING...AND WILL PRODUCE BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE MIDDAY FRI. ACCOMPANYING THE STRONG CANADIAN HIGH WILL BE MUCH COLDER AIR...AS TEMPS WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO WARM BEYOND THE LOW TO MID 40S. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A SLUG OF 850MB TEMPS DROPPING TO -6 TO -10 DEG C MIDDAY FRI/EARLY AFTN...WHICH MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPS COOLER IN THE UPR 30S/LOW 40S FRI. THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND TEMPS IN THE LOW 40S...WILL LIKELY CREATE WIND CHILL VALUES AROUND 30-33 DEGREES FRI AFTN. PRECIP AT THIS TIME SHUD REMAIN IN LIQUID FORM FRI...HOWEVER AS COLDER AIR ADVECTS IN FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST FRI LATE AFTN/EARLY EVE...WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW. LAKE EFFECT PRECIP LOOKS FAVORABLE AS WELL...HOWEVER GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS AND REDUCED RESONANCE TIME...THE ONSET WILL LIKELY START CELLULAR. THEN AS WINDS DIMINISH LATE FRI NGT A FEW BANDS MAY TRY TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHWEST IND. TEMPS WILL COOL ENOUGH OVERNIGHT TO CHANGE ALL PRECIP OVER TO SNOW...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS TIME. TEMPS FRI NIGHT OVER LAND WILL LIKELY DIP INTO THE MID/UPR 20S ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE LAKE WHERE SKIES SHUD ERODE EARLIER FRI NGT. FURTHER EAST LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY WARMER. CONFIDENCE...HIGH. SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK... THE WEEKEND WILL START UNSEASONABLY COLD WITH A DEEP 500MB TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS...AND A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE STRETCHING NORTH THROUGH THE PLAINS INTO GREENLAND. BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND THE TROUGH BEGINS TO WEAKEN. SFC RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES SAT WILL SHIFT EAST SUN. GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED THE DEPARTURE OF THE SFC RIDGE SLIGHTLY...WHICH WILL RESULT IN HOW QUICKLY THE SECONDARY TROUGH CAN PUSH INTO THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT A TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE SOUTHWEST CONUS LATE SUN/EARLY MON...WITH A SFC LOW DEVELOPING EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL LIKELY SET THE STAGE FOR A SLOW MODERATION IN TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH PRECIP CHANCES INCREASING MON. CONFIDENCE...HIGH. BEACHLER && .AVIATION... //ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 14Z... * NONE. RODRIGUEZ //DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z... AS THE DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK NEWD THROUGH CANADA...A SECONDARY SURGE OF COOLER AIR AND A BKN-OVC STRATOCU DECK HAS OVERSPREAD THE REGION. THE SECONDARY SURGE OF COOLER AIR AND INCREASED COLD ADVECTION WILL BRING GUSTS TO ARND 25KT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND SPREAD EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...LEADING TO CLEARING SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS. DURG THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...THE HIGH WILL BE RIGHT ON TOP OF THE AREA...AND WINDS SHOULD BECOME LGT/VRBL UNDER CLEAR SKIES... WHICH SHOULD THEN BE THE PREVAILING CONDITION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. KREIN //ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 14Z... * HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL FORECAST ELEMENTS. RODRIGUEZ //OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 12Z... * THURSDAY NIGHT...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA LATE. STRONG NWLY WINDS DEVELOPING LATE. * FRIDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA EARLY SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA/SHSN MIX LATE. STRONG/GUSTY NORTH WINDS. * SATURDAY...VFR. WX NIL. NORTHEAST WINDS. * SUNDAY....VFR. WX NIL. SOUTH WINDS. * MONDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS. * TUESDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA. SOUTHWEST WINDS. KREIN && .MARINE... 230 AM CDT DEEPENING LOW OVER JAMES BAY WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES...AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SLIDES SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL DIMINISH WINDS ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT/THUR MORNING. THEN A WEAK LOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY THUR AND QUICKLY SLIDE EAST TOWARDS LAKE MICHIGAN...BEFORE DEEPENING TO A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE OVER LOWER MICHIGAN THUR NGT/EARLY FRI. THEN THE TIME PERIOD OF GREATEST CONCERN WILL BE FRI WITH A VERY POTENT CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE REGION POISED TO SLIDE SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRI MORNING. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW/HIGH CONTINUES TO BE SUPPORTIVE OF GENERATING GALES TO 40KT AND POSSIBLY 45KT AROUND 9Z FRI MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE...AND LIKELY DEVELOP FURTHER SOUTH AROUND DAYBREAK FRI OR SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK FRI. GUIDANCE HAS REMAINED CONSISTENT WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN NORTH GALES 40-45KTS DEVELOPING FRI...SO HAVE OPTED TO JUST JUMP TO A GALE WARNING RATHER THAN A WATCH. THERE IS A SMALL WINDOW MIDDAY FRI WHERE A FEW STORM FORCE GUSTS COULD OCCUR...BUT THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FOR ANY DURATION OF STORM FORCE WINDS. WITH THE NORTH GALES...AND FOR A DECENT DURATION...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WAVES COULD BE SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH TO PRODUCE THE NEED FOR BEACH HAZARDS ALONG THE INDIANA SHORELINE FRI AS WELL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE LAKE LATE FRI NGT AND STEADILY DIMINISH THE WINDS. WINDS/WAVES WILL FURTHER DIMINISH SAT/SUN AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE LAKE. BEACHLER && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. IN...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 10 AM WEDNESDAY. GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ740-LMZ741- LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ870-LMZ872- LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...7 AM FRIDAY TO 4 AM SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 3 PM WEDNESDAY. GALE WARNING...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-LMZ567- LMZ868...4 AM FRIDAY TO 10 PM FRIDAY. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 643 AM CDT Wed Oct 29 2014 .SHORT TERM...(Today) ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014 Surface high pressure will begin to build into the state today, but not until this afternoon. This morning, however, a large area of clouds continues to move southeast-east in connection with a mid level trough that is rotating through the Great Lakes region. Satellite trends indicate that some of these clouds will advect into northern parts of the area this morning and then should move east through the day, leaving the CWA later this afternoon. So, this morning, looking at partly sunny skies in the north, roughly north of a Canton to Bloomington line. Satellite also indicates there are some breaks in the clouds, so believe sunshine this morning should help some to burn some of it off. CU rule does have some CU developing, but only in the scattered range. Remainder of the CWA should be mostly sunny to sunny. Despite the sunshine today, cooler temperatures, below normal, have returned to the area. Looking for temperatures in the 50s by this afternoon, which is really close to both the MET and MAV guidance. && .LONG TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday) ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014 Northwest upper level flow will persist into the weekend, helping to keep temperatures below normal, with coldest air from Friday through this weekend. A hard freeze still looks likely Friday night with lows in the upper 20s across much of central/se IL and a freeze watch will likely eventually be needed overnight Friday night into early Saturday morning. Weak high pressure around 1022 mb over the central plains to drift east over IL by overnight and bring fair skies and light winds with cool lows in the mid to upper 30s, with patchy frost overnight from Lincoln eastward into IN. Some high clouds increase over western areas later tonight and get a return se flow to limit frost formation in western IL tonight. A weak disturbance over the Pacific Northwest, is expected to dive se across MO Thursday afternoon, and into the TN river valley by overnight Thu night. This to bring a chance of rain showers to central IL by Thu afternoon and evening and shifting east of I-57 overnight Thu night. The 00Z models, especially NAM model, have increased rain chances and qpf amounts over our CWA with this weather system. Highs Thu in the middle to upper 50s with mildest readings sw areas and se IL. Chances of showers will shift east into IN Friday where strong upper level trof digs over the eastern states. Models have trended stronger with this trof and also windier and colder over IL with more qpf just east of IL over IN/OH/KY. Wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph on Friday and Friday evening along with highs only in the 40s Friday will not make for very nice weather for trick or treaters Friday evening. Stronger Canadian surface high pressure of 1034 mb settling into the Midwest Friday night, will produce good radiational cooling conditions overnight Friday night and a likely hard freeze later Friday night and early Saturday morning. Chilly highs Sat in the mid to upper 40s. Another freeze likely Sat night with lows in the upper 20s eastern IL and lower 30s central and western IL. Highs Sunday in the upper 40s and lower 50s. After a chilly first weekend of November (and a sharp contrast from the warm weekend the last weekend of October), temperatures will moderate a bit during the 1st half of next work week with highs 55-60F Monday-Wednesday. Upper level flow becomes more southwesterly and unsettled over IL early next work week and a frontal boundary to set up from the southern plains ne into the Ohio river valley. This likely to bring widespread rain of a half to 1 inch to the region from Monday into Tuesday with isolated thunderstorms possible south of I-72. The rain showers should diminish to slight chances on Wed as frontal boundary weakens as it sags south of IL. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning) ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014 VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites next 24hrs. An area of clouds around 4kft continues to advect into the area this morning, and will effect all sites today. Based on satellite trends and timing tools, looks like the broken cigs will be at PIA and BMI around start of TAF forecast. Believe these broken cigs will last til this evening, when it will become clear for tonight. Satellite trends and HRRR model cloud forecast looks like the clouds will thin as they continue to move southeast. Therefore, will be going with just scattered clouds for the other three TAF sites, SPI/DEC/CMI; but, will also include a 4hr TEMPO group for broken cigs during the morning hours. Skies will clear at these three sites around 00-02z as well, staying clear the remainder of the TAF period. Winds will be west to northwest today at around 10-15kts, but then become light and variable tonight. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Auten LONG TERM...07 AVIATION...Auten
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
524 AM MDT WED OCT 29 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 334 AM MDT WED OCT 29 2014 EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW LARGE SCALE TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH AN UPSTREAM RIDGE EXTENDING NORTH ALONG THE ROCKIES. NW FLOW IS IN PLACE OVER THE CWA BETWEEN THESE FEATURES. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO LINGER OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A WEAK LEE TROUGH BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN COLORADO. RIDGING WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST US THROUGH THURSDAY WITH NW FLOW OVER THE CWA. LEE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN TODAY IN RESPONSE TO CROSS MOUNTAIN FLOW IN THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...WITH HIGHS ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOWER 70S. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NW FLOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. WITH A DEEP DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED. THIS TROUGH WILL KICK A COLD FRONT SOUTH OVER THE CWA TONIGHT WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO SEASONAL VALUES IN THE 60S ON THURSDAY. FLOW ALOFT AMPLIFIES FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND A LARGE SCALE TROUGH BEGINS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WESTERN US. THERE WILL BE A FEW EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WITHIN THE MEAN FLOW...HOWEVER A VERY DRY AIR MASS AND UNFAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL STORM TRACKS WILL LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS FRIDAY AND THE ASSOCIATED BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 50S TO THE CWA (POSSIBLY LOWER IN THE NORTHEAST). THE AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL ALSO SUPPORT DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER COLORADO...AND WITH THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE...TIGHTENING GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL LIMIT DIURNAL COOLING. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 334 AM MDT WED OCT 29 2014 HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING TO THE EAST AND CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE AREA THROUGH MID DAY SUNDAY. ON SATURDAY THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST WILL PRODUCE A STIFF SOUTHERLY WIND. THIS COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE WEAK AND WILL PASS OVER THE FA STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THIS FRONT SO WILL ADD A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS...MOSTLY IN THE NORTHWEST AREA OF THE FA. AFTER THE FRONT PASSES ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGAN TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL CAUSE THE WINDS TO SHIFT TO WEST-NORTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH AND THE TEMPERATURES TO DECREASE TO AT OR BELOW FREEZING EARLY ON MONDAY MORNING. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST STARTS TO MOVE TOWARDS THE EAST MORE OF THE AREA WILL SEE MORE SEASONAL WEATHER THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 524 AM MDT WED OCT 29 2014 VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AROUND 10KT AS LEE TROUGH DEEPENS IN EASTERN COLORADO THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AS A COLD FRONT MOVES OVER BOTH TERMINALS LATER THIS EVENING. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DR LONG TERM...BDW AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
1000 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2014 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... ...Forecast Update... Issued at 745 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2014 The back edge of the clouds is about halfway through the region, but in its wake are a thin layer of low clouds, as evident on satellite fog product, area webcams, and automated observing stations. Have add patchy dense fog to the forecast for the next couple of hours, as the HRRR and NARRE both hint at these clouds sticking around. Also issued a special weather statement highlighting the impact. Issued at 620 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2014 Updated the forecast to reduce precip chances over south central KY as precip is making quick progress eastward out of the area early this morning. Also, added some patchy fog over portions of southwest Indiana and west central KY where clearing has begun and visibilities are dropping at some observation sites. .SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)... Issued at 300 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2014 Early this morning, a shortwave was riding NE along the cold front just to our south and east. This wave will provide another round of light rain showers to south central KY and southern portions of the Bluegrass during the pre-dawn hours. These locations may see up to an additional tenth of an inch of rainfall early this morning. This last wave of rainfall should exit the Lake Cumberland region around or just after sunrise with cooler, drier air pushing in from the NW throughout the day. Skies will become mostly sunny by mid morning with high temps topping out in the upper 50s to lower 60s this afternoon. Tonight sfc high pressure will enter the Ohio Valley with most models progging it to become centered over our region around sunrise. This high will provide light winds, subsidence, and good rad cooling conditions which will result in low temps in the mid to upper 30s Thurs morning. Temps in this range will make at least patchy frost formation possible in sheltered/valley locations. Tonight could be a Frost Advisory candidate especially for southern Indiana and north central Kentucky. Will need to re-evaluate winds, dewpts, and temps this afternoon to determine if frost formation would be widespread enough for a Frost Advisory Thurs morning. Stay tuned! After a cold start Thurs morning, temps should warm into the mid 50s to around 60 Thurs afternoon. Clouds will be on the increase Thurs afternoon as the next weather system approaches for Thurs night. .LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)... Issued at 420 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2014 ...Blast of Cold Air Coming This Weekend with Sub-Freezing Temperatures Likely by Sunday... OK, let`s cut to the chase. Friday evening is what you`re really interested in, since the streets will be full of little goblins and you`ll either be accompanying them or opening your doors for them. Either way, it`s not going to be pleasant. Light showers will be occurring in most areas with temperatures falling through the 40s - if not into the 30s - before the last doorbell is rung. And some of the precipitation falling from those showers will likely be in the form of light snow if you stay out too late. When you add north winds gusting from 15 to 25 mph, well, let`s just say that it`s going to be cold. The extended period will bring us a taste of the season to come as a progressive upper level weather pattern keeps forecasters on their toes. We start out with a series of upper disturbances diving south out of Canada, deepening a trof over the eastern U.S. and dragging the colder air into the Ohio Valley. Showers will first move into the region overnight Thursday, then increase in coverage during the day Friday along with the push of cold air coming in rapidly on north winds as a tight surface gradient sets up between Low pressure over the Appalachians and High pressure over the upper Mississippi Valley. This leads into the aforementioned blustery weather Friday night. Wind chills Friday night will fall into the 20s, but with the gusty winds, actual air temperatures should not fall below freezing Saturday morning. The same won`t be true for Sunday morning though, as the surface High moves in from the upper Mississippi Valley, clearing out skies and dropping winds off to allow for peak radiational cooling by Sunday morning. Temperature by dawn on the day we move the clocks back an hour should be in the upper 20s across the entire area, effectively putting an end to the outdoor growing season. A gradual warmup will occur Sunday into Monday as the High drifts slowly east and return southerly flow sets up. This will set the stage for the next chance for showers from Monday night into Tuesday. These will stay in the form of rain, rather than snow, though, as daytime temperatures moderate back into the upper 60s Monday and Tuesday - up considerably from Saturday`s max temperatures in the 40s. && .AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)... Updated at 645 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2014 SDF/LEX should remain VFR through the TAF period. However, BWG may see some MVFR conditions due to light br for a brief period this morning. Light WSW winds will increase by this afternoon to 8-10 kts primarily from the W behind a departing cold front. Tonight expect a wind shift to the NW as a dry trough swings through the region. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ Update.........AMS/RJS Short Term.....AMS Long Term......JBS Aviation.......AMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
750 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2014 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... ...Forecast Update... Issued at 745 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2014 The back edge of the clouds is about halfway through the region, but in its wake are a thin layer of low clouds, as evident on satellite fog product, area webcams, and automated observing stations. Have add patchy dense fog to the forecast for the next couple of hours, as the HRRR and NARRE both hint at these clouds sticking around. Also issued a special weather statement highlighting the impact. Issued at 620 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2014 Updated the forecast to reduce precip chances over south central KY as precip is making quick progress eastward out of the area early this morning. Also, added some patchy fog over portions of southwest Indiana and west central KY where clearing has begun and visibilities are dropping at some observation sites. .SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)... Issued at 300 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2014 Early this morning, a shortwave was riding NE along the cold front just to our south and east. This wave will provide another round of light rain showers to south central KY and southern portions of the Bluegrass during the pre-dawn hours. These locations may see up to an additional tenth of an inch of rainfall early this morning. This last wave of rainfall should exit the Lake Cumberland region around or just after sunrise with cooler, drier air pushing in from the NW throughout the day. Skies will become mostly sunny by mid morning with high temps topping out in the upper 50s to lower 60s this afternoon. Tonight sfc high pressure will enter the Ohio Valley with most models progging it to become centered over our region around sunrise. This high will provide light winds, subsidence, and good rad cooling conditions which will result in low temps in the mid to upper 30s Thurs morning. Temps in this range will make at least patchy frost formation possible in sheltered/valley locations. Tonight could be a Frost Advisory candidate especially for southern Indiana and north central Kentucky. Will need to re-evaluate winds, dewpts, and temps this afternoon to determine if frost formation would be widespread enough for a Frost Advisory Thurs morning. Stay tuned! After a cold start Thurs morning, temps should warm into the mid 50s to around 60 Thurs afternoon. Clouds will be on the increase Thurs afternoon as the next weather system approaches for Thurs night. .LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)... Issued at 420 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2014 ...Blast of Cold Air Coming This Weekend with Sub-Freezing Temperatures Likely by Sunday... OK, let`s cut to the chase. Friday evening is what you`re really interested in, since the streets will be full of little goblins and you`ll either be accompanying them or opening your doors for them. Either way, it`s not going to be pleasant. Light showers will be occurring in most areas with temperatures falling through the 40s - if not into the 30s - before the last doorbell is rung. And some of the precipitation falling from those showers will likely be in the form of light snow if you stay out too late. When you add north winds gusting from 15 to 25 mph, well, let`s just say that it`s going to be cold. The extended period will bring us a taste of the season to come as a progressive upper level weather pattern keeps forecasters on their toes. We start out with a series of upper disturbances diving south out of Canada, deepening a trof over the eastern U.S. and dragging the colder air into the Ohio Valley. Showers will first move into the region overnight Thursday, then increase in coverage during the day Friday along with the push of cold air coming in rapidly on north winds as a tight surface gradient sets up between Low pressure over the Appalachians and High pressure over the upper Mississippi Valley. This leads into the aforementioned blustery weather Friday night. Wind chills Friday night will fall into the 20s, but with the gusty winds, actual air temperatures should not fall below freezing Saturday morning. The same won`t be true for Sunday morning though, as the surface High moves in from the upper Mississippi Valley, clearing out skies and dropping winds off to allow for peak radiational cooling by Sunday morning. Temperature by dawn on the day we move the clocks ahead an hour should be in the upper 20s across the entire area, effectively putting an end to the outdoor growing season. A gradual warmup will occur Sunday into Monday as the High drifts slowly east and return southerly flow sets up. This will set the stage for the next chance for showers from Monday night into Tuesday. These will stay in the form of rain, rather than snow, though, as daytime temperatures moderate back into the upper 60s Monday and Tuesday - up considerably from Saturday`s max temperatures in the 40s. && .AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)... Updated at 645 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2014 SDF/LEX should remain VFR through the TAF period. However, BWG may see some MVFR conditions due to light br for a brief period this morning. Light WSW winds will increase by this afternoon to 8-10 kts primarily from the W behind a departing cold front. Tonight expect a wind shift to the NW as a dry trough swings through the region. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ Update.........AMS/RJS Short Term.....AMS Long Term......JBS Aviation.......AMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
655 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR THU THROUGH FRI. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 340 AM WEDNESDAY... WATER VAPOR AND 00Z UPPER AIR DATA REVEAL A POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH ALOFT...WHICH INCLUDES SHORTWAVE TROUGHS IN BOTH THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS...FROM SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED AT 07Z JUST WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. ASIDE FROM SOUTHERN STREAM-GENERATED CIRRUS LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER...AND ALONG AND POST(ANA)-FRONTAL SHOWERS...ALSO REMAINED WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. A BLEND OF THE SLOWER ECMWF AND RAP FORECAST SOLUTIONS IS FAVORED GIVEN THAT THE ASSOCIATED COOLER POST-FRONTAL AIR HAS STILL NOT REACHED THE MOUNTAINS...AND THE FLOW ALOFT IS FRONT-PARALLEL/ SOUTHWESTERLY. AS SUCH...MODEST INSOLATION THROUGH THE CIRRUS AND PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER FROM THE WEST WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 70S WEST TO LOWER 80S EAST...WITH EXPECTED FROPA TIMING IN THE NW PIEDMONT BETWEEN 20- 22Z...THE TRIANGLE BETWEEN 22-00Z...AND THE COASTAL PLAIN AND EASTERN SANDHILLS BETWEEN 00-03Z. WHILE THE ONGOING SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS THEY APPROACH AND MOVE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS...REDEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY AS THE DIVERGENT RIGHT ENTRANCE OF A JET STREAK IN THE NORTHERN STREAM SPREADS EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC AND PROVIDES DEEPER/COUPLED ASCENT ATOP THE FRONTAL CIRCULATION THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE COUPLED FORCING...WEAK LAPSE RATES AND ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY WILL OTHERWISE HINDER PRECIPITATION INTENSITY...AND ONLY AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO IS EXPECTED AMIDST AN OTHERWISE BAND OF SHOWERS. THOUGH SOME 4-8 THOUSAND FT CLOUDINESS WILL LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THIS EVENING OWING TO THE ONLY SLOW APPROACH OF THE TROUGH ALOFT...CLEARING WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD EAST OVERNIGHT. CAA-DRIVEN LOWS MOSTLY BETWEEN 45 TO 55 DEGREES. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 310 AM WEDNESDAY... SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND UNDERLYING 1020 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE... BEHIND THE TROUGH ALOFT FORECAST TO MOVE INTO AND AFFECT THE EASTERN US DURING THE NEAR TERM...WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEYS AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES ON THU. THE RESULT WILL BE SUNNY AND COOLER CONDITIONS...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES. FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATES ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE PAC NW THIS MORNING WILL AMPLIFY SOUTHEASTWARD AND INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY FRI MORNING...WHILE A MUCH STRONGER ONE IN A PRONOUNCED EARLY SEASON ARCTIC STREAM AMPLIFIES SOUTH SOUTHEASTWARD FROM CENTRAL CANADA TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES DURING THE SAME TIME. DESPITE THE ASSOCIATED STEADILY FALLING HEIGHTS ALOFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE PAIR OF AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS...PRECEDING DRYNESS/LIMITED DEEP MOISTURE SUGGESTS THE MAIN IMPACT THROUGH FRI MORNING SHOULD BE MERELY AN UPTICK IN MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS AS THE FLOW ALOFT BACKS TO SOUTHWESTERLY THU NIGHT...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES WITHIN A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 40. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 310 AM WEDNESDAY... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA EARLY ON FRIDAY... AHEAD OF STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVING IN TO THE BASE OF A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US. RECENT MODEL TRENDS HAVE SHOWN THIS SHORTWAVE MOVING MUCH FURTHER SOUTHWARD THAN PREVIOUS RUNS... AND INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED MIDLEVEL FLOW... WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW CROSSING THE AREA AND INDUCING COASTAL SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT. THE RESULTING STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING BLUSTERY WINDS SATURDAY. IF THIS SCENARIO PLAYS OUT... WE WILL SEE A COLD AND WET DAY... WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S. HAVE BEGUN TO TREND HIGHS LOWER... AND INCREASED TO CHANCE POPS SATURDAY. AS NOTED BY WPC... THE FORECASTED PATTERN IS QUITE ANOMALOUS... AND THEREFORE CONFIDENCE REMAINS BELOW NORMAL AT THIS TIME. SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW WILL BRING CLEARING CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY... WHICH WILL WORK TO PARTIALLY OFFSET COLD ADVECTION... WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 50S. STRONG AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN TO THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY WILL MOVE DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY... WITH FROST AND POSSIBLY FREEZE POTENTIAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS. THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST ON TUESDAY... BEGINNING A MODERATING TREND IN TEMPERATURES... WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE 60S MONDAY AND TUESDAY. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 645 AM WEDNESDAY... LATEST INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE STRATUS OVER EASTERN SC WILL MAKE LITTLE ADDITIONAL NORTHWESTWARD PROGRESS OWING TO A VEERING OF THE SURFACE WIND TO SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...SUCH THAT THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF FAY THIS MORNING. AS SUCH...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED BAND OF ALONG AND POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS - AND ASSOCIATED IFR-MVFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS - MOVES EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST ONLY AROUND 2-5 HOURS AT ANY ONE LOCATION...LONGEST AT EASTERN SITES. A PERIOD OF VFR CEILINGS BETWEEN 4-8 THOUSAND FT WILL LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS EVEN AFTER THE SHOWERS AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS MOVE EAST...AS THE SLOW APPROACH OF A TROUGH ALOFT DRAWS MOISTURE BACK UP AND OVER THE SURFACE FRONT. OTHERWISE...SW SURFACE WINDS BETWEEN 7-13 KTS...STRONGEST AND OCCASIONALLY GUSTY INTO THE UPPER TEENS KTS AT FAY AND RWI...WILL VEER TO WNW OR NW BEHIND THE FRONT BY THIS EVENING. OUTLOOK: THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG POLAR FRONT AND SUBSEQUENT DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG COASTAL LOW WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF RAIN...AND BLUSTERY NW WINDS...FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MWS NEAR TERM...MWS SHORT TERM...MWS LONG TERM...SEC AVIATION...MWS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
958 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 957 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014 LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA AS OF 15 UTC IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE INTERACTING WITH THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EAST TODAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY BE BOUNDED BY I-94 AND US HIGHWAY 2 BASED UPON RADAR TRENDS...THE 00 UTC WRF-ARW/NMM...06 UTC GFS AND 09 UTC SREF. A FEW FLAKES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR WEST AROUND MIDDAY...OTHERWISE...PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ALL RAIN. UPDATE ISSUED AT 646 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014 ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY SKY GRIDS BASED ON THE CURRENT OBS/TRENDS OF THE STRATUS SHIELD MOVING INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINING WEATHER ELEMENTS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014 TIMING OF THE EXIT OF THE LARGE CLOUD SHIELD OVER THE STATE...THEN CHANCES OF SHOWERS TODAY ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. CURRENTLY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED FROM NORTHERN MANITOBA ACROSS THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS AND INTO NEBRASKA. A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF HUDSON BAY. A LARGE CLOUD SHIELD OF WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW EXTENDED WESTWARD TO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. TO THE WEST...A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDED ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES FROM A LOW OVER ALBERTA SOUTHWARD ACROSS MONTANA AND WYOMING. THE CLOUD DECK CONTINUED TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE HUDSON BAY LOW CONTINUES MOVING NORTHEAST...AND AS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA FROM THE WEST. LATEST SAT PICS INDICATE THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CLOUD DECK WAS NEAR STANLEY...TO MANDAN/BISMARCK...TO NEAR FORT YATES. KEPT THE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. AS SKIES CLEAR...RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPS THAT MAY DROP QUICKLY...CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SHOULD HAVE THESE CONDITIONS IN THOSE FEW HOURS BEFORE/AROUND SUNRISE. THE LATEST HRRR RUNS INDICATE THE CLOUD DECK SHOULD CLEAR THE JAMESTOWN AREA BEFORE NOON. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE LOW LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY FIELD OF THE NAM. FOLLOWING THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVING IN FROM THE WEST IS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO ENTER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BEFORE/AROUND NOON...AND MOVE EAST ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE STATE. EXPECTING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING LATE MORNING IN THE WEST...AND KEPT CHANCES IN FOR ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LINGERING CHANCES IN THE JAMES VALLEY THIS EVENING. TONIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW THE EXITING SURFACE LOW...AND WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY...GOOD COLD ADVECTION WILL BEGIN...AND A LARGE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014 STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE GREAT PLAINS WILL GENERATE DRY CONDITIONS OVER NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST AS COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG A SHORTWAVE TO LIFT SOMEWHERE INTO EASTERN MONTANA/WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE ECMWF/GEM HAVE WEAKENED THE SHORTWAVE AND HAVE NUDGED ITS TRACK A LITTLE FARTHER WEST INTO MONTANA. HOWEVER...THE LATEST GFS IS SLOWER AND STRONGER WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM...PLACING IT OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY. IF THE GFS WERE TO VERIFY...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WOULD BE AN ISSUE OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY. GIVEN THE MODEL TO MODEL AND RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCIES...WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST A MODEL BLEND. GIVEN THE RECENT WEAKENING ECMWF AND GEM TRENDS...WILL NOT GET TOO EXCITED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES SUNDAY-MONDAY. IT IS EXPECTED THAT LATER RUNS OF THE GFS WILL BEGIN TO TREND TOWARDS THE ECMWF AS IT HAS ALL SEASON. NEVERTHELESS...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN FORECAST TUESDAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 957 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014 MVFR STRATUS WILL CLEAR KJMS AROUND 17 UTC. OTHERWISE...A WARM FRONT ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE DAY. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT...WITH VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. A COLD FRONT WILL OVERTAKE THE AREA FROM SOUTHERN CANADA THIS EVENING...WITH MVFR STRATUS IN TRAIL. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...AYD SHORT TERM...JV LONG TERM...TM AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
955 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 955 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014 ENTIRE CWA CONTINUES TO BE OVERCAST AS WRN EDGE OF STRATOCU DECK INCHES ITSELF EASTWARD. WILL GO AHEAD AND KNOCK DAYTIME TEMPS DOWN A DEG OR TWO AS A LATE START TO ANY HEATING IS EXPECTED. NEW NAM KEEPS PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH LOW CURRENTLY OVER SRN SASK IN CNTRL DAKOTAS THROUGH 00Z...SO HAVE REMOVED LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SHEYENNE VALLEY. WILL HOLD OFF ANY PRECIP UNTIL AFT 00Z. WILL READDRESS TEMPS FOR THIS AFTN WITH NEXT UPDATE AS IT IS A BIT EARLY TO TELL IMPACTS ON CLOUDS...BUT 2 DEG COOLER THAN PREV CURVE INDICATED SHOULD BE A DECENT START. UPDATE ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014 BACK EDGE OF CLEARING LINE STILL EVER SO SLOWLY CLEARING EAST- NORTHEAST. STILL NOT PROGGED TO REACH GRAND FORKS AREA TIL VERY LATE TODAY. SO CLOUDY IDEA WAY TO GO. NO ADJUSTMENT TO HIGHS TODAY BUT COULD HAVE TO BE NUDGED DOWN A FEW. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014 UPPER LOW MOVING INTO EASTERN ONTARIO EARLY THIS MORNING. ISSUE TODAY WILL BE CLOUD TRENDS AND THEN CHANCE OF PRECIP WITH NEXT WEAK SHORT WAVE FOR LATER TODAY/THIS. WRAPAROUND STRATOCU FIELD BEHIND UPPER LOW EXTENDS BACK OVER ALL OF SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH DAKOTA AND ALL OF MINNESOTA. BACK EDGE HAS BEEN CLEARING SLOWLY AND IS NEAR A STANLEY TO BISMARCK LINE AND TIMING TOOLS SHOW AT ITS CURRENT RATE IT WILL REACH WRN FCST AREA BY 15Z AND INTO THE RRV BUT PERHAPS NOT AS LATE AS 21-23Z. USING THE SFC RIDGE AXIS AS BACK EDGE OF THE STRATOCU AND LATEST HRRR IT WOULD HAVE CLEARING TRYING TO COME INTO THE VALLEY 18Z-19Z. CLOUDS WILL PUT A DAMPER ON TEMPS. NEXT SHORT WAVE IS PACIFIC MOISTURE IN NATURE AND IS MOVING INTO WESTERN MONTANA. THIS WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE TODAY AND SPREAD THRU ERN ND THIS EVENING AND INTO MINNESOTA TONIGHT. EXPECT A FEW RAIN SHOWERS WITH THIS SYSTEM THOUGH WITH MOISTURE PACIFIC IN NATURE AND MOSTLY MID LEVEL BASED AMOUNTS OF PRECIP WILL BE QUITE LOW...A FEW HUNDREDTHS AT BEST. TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM IS A BIT SLOWER THAN IT SHOWED ON PAST DAYS. BEHIND THIS SHORT WAVE...A FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE NOW WELL NORTH OF YELLOWKNIFE NWT WILL MOVE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AND TOWARD THE MN ARROWHEAD THURSDAY AFTN. EXPECT A FAST MOVING BUT SHARP COLD FRONT TO DROP SOUTH THRU THE AREA THURSDAY ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTH WINDS. MODELS HAVE HAVE TRENDED A BIT COLDER WITH THIS SYSTEM AND ALSO A BIT FARTHER WEST WITH SFC HIGH PLACEMENT. WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS IN THE NORTHEASTERN FCST AREA FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTN. ALSO TRIMMED HIGHS THURSDAY A FEW DEGREES AND UPPED WINDS A BIT HIGHER THAN BLENDED SOLNS DUE TO TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND QUICK SHOT OF STRONG 850 MB COLD ADVECTION. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014 850 MB TEMPS DROP TO -10C BY 00Z FRI AS HIGH SETTLES SOUTH INTO CNTRL ND. EXPECT A CLEAR SKY FOR MOST AREAS WITH COLDEST VALUES AND LESS WIND IN CNTRL-ERN ND. PAST FEW RUNS HAVE SHOWN A BIT COLDER AIRMASS...AND WITH THAT DROPPED LOWS FOR FRI AM A FEW DEGREES...BUT NOT QUITE AS COLD AS SOME MODELS. GENERALLY WENT 15-20F FOR ERN ND AND 20-25 IN MN. FRIDAY WILL BE A CHILLY DAY WITH SUNSHINE WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE 30S. RETURN FLOW SETS UP LATE FRI AFTN IN WRN FCST AND SPREAD EAST FRI NIGHT. ALSO SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS FRI NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. FOR SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY WILL KEEP THINGS QUIET PCPN WISE BUT IT SHOULD BE A LITTLE BREEZY. START TO GET INTO SOUTHWEST FLOW ON SUNDAY AS A 500MB TROUGH DIGS INTO THE ROCKIES. MODELS DIFFER A LITTLE IN HOW TO HANDLE THE ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THIS SYSTEM WITH THE ECMWF/GEM SHOWING TWO WEAK SFC LOWS...ONE OVER WESTERN ND AND THE SECOND OVER EASTERN COLORADO. GFS HAS ONE COMBINED LOW OVER WESTERN NE. GUIDANCE FAVORS THE ECMWF/GEM SOLUTION WHICH WOULD HAVE SOME WEAK SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN FA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NORTHERN LOW. BY MONDAY EACH MODEL DIFFERS QUITE A BIT WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING THE NORTHERN SFC LOW DOMINANT WHILE THE GEM SHOWS THE SOUTHERN ONE MORE SO AND THE GFS IN BETWEEN. THIS TRANSLATES INTO THE ECMWF BYPASSING MOST OF THE FA WITH ANY PCPN...THE GFS RIGHT OVER THE FA AND THE GEM OVER THE SOUTHERN FA. WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THIS WORKS OUT WITH LATER RUNS. BY TUE DRY WEATHER SHOULD RETURN. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014 ISSUE TODAY IS WHEN OR IF LOWER MVFR/IFR CLOUDS CLEAR OUT. BACK EDGE OF CLEARING OF MVFR DECK SLOWLY MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST AND BASED ON TIMING OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS PROGGED TO REACH DVL NR 18Z AND FAR 20Z AND GFK 21Z (IF THEN). THIS TIME PERIOD DOES FOLLOW LATEST HRRR AS WELL. WILL HAVE TO SEE IF ENOUGH SUN HEATING ON TOP OF CLOUD DECK TO ERODE A BIT FASTER BUT CONSIDERING MUCH WEAKER SUN CHANCES ARE GETTING MUCH SLIMMER. OTHER THAN THAT 06Z MODELS LOOKING LIKE A BIT BETTER BET FOR SOME -RA TONIGHT IN THE AREA SO ADDED IT TO TAFS MAINLY THIS EVE AT DVL/FAR/GFK/TVF AND OVERNIGHT AT BJI. WINDS TO TURN NORTH OVERNIGHT IN THE RRV/DVL BASIN. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...SPEICHER SHORT TERM...RIDDLE LONG TERM...GODON/RIDDLE AVIATION...RIDDLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
646 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 646 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014 ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY SKY GRIDS BASED ON THE CURRENT OBS/TRENDS OF THE STRATUS SHIELD MOVING INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINING WEATHER ELEMENTS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014 TIMING OF THE EXIT OF THE LARGE CLOUD SHIELD OVER THE STATE...THEN CHANCES OF SHOWERS TODAY ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. CURRENTLY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED FROM NORTHERN MANITOBA ACROSS THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS AND INTO NEBRASKA. A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF HUDSON BAY. A LARGE CLOUD SHIELD OF WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW EXTENDED WESTWARD TO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. TO THE WEST...A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDED ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES FROM A LOW OVER ALBERTA SOUTHWARD ACROSS MONTANA AND WYOMING. THE CLOUD DECK CONTINUED TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE HUDSON BAY LOW CONTINUES MOVING NORTHEAST...AND AS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA FROM THE WEST. LATEST SAT PICS INDICATE THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CLOUD DECK WAS NEAR STANLEY...TO MANDAN/BISMARCK...TO NEAR FORT YATES. KEPT THE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. AS SKIES CLEAR...RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPS THAT MAY DROP QUICKLY...CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SHOULD HAVE THESE CONDITIONS IN THOSE FEW HOURS BEFORE/AROUND SUNRISE. THE LATEST HRRR RUNS INDICATE THE CLOUD DECK SHOULD CLEAR THE JAMESTOWN AREA BEFORE NOON. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE LOW LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY FIELD OF THE NAM. FOLLOWING THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVING IN FROM THE WEST IS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO ENTER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BEFORE/AROUND NOON...AND MOVE EAST ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE STATE. EXPECTING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING LATE MORNING IN THE WEST...AND KEPT CHANCES IN FOR ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LINGERING CHANCES IN THE JAMES VALLEY THIS EVENING. TONIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW THE EXITING SURFACE LOW...AND WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY...GOOD COLD ADVECTION WILL BEGIN...AND A LARGE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014 STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE GREAT PLAINS WILL GENERATE DRY CONDITIONS OVER NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST AS COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG A SHORTWAVE TO LIFT SOMEWHERE INTO EASTERN MONTANA/WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE ECMWF/GEM HAVE WEAKENED THE SHORTWAVE AND HAVE NUDGED ITS TRACK A LITTLE FARTHER WEST INTO MONTANA. HOWEVER...THE LATEST GFS IS SLOWER AND STRONGER WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM...PLACING IT OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY. IF THE GFS WERE TO VERIFY...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WOULD BE AN ISSUE OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY. GIVEN THE MODEL TO MODEL AND RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCIES...WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST A MODEL BLEND. GIVEN THE RECENT WEAKENING ECMWF AND GEM TRENDS...WILL NOT GET TOO EXCITED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES SUNDAY-MONDAY. IT IS EXPECTED THAT LATER RUNS OF THE GFS WILL BEGIN TO TREND TOWARDS THE ECMWF AS IT HAS ALL SEASON. NEVERTHELESS...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN FORECAST TUESDAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 646 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014 MVFR TO LOW VFR STRATUS HAS CLEARED AT STANLEY...BISMARCK...FORT YATES. CLEARING IS NEAR KMOT AND LINTON. KEPT A MENTION OF MVFR VSBYS IN FOG AT KBIS AND KMOT ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STRATUS. CLEARING AT KJMS AROUND 16Z. SOME SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS TODAY BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH REGARDING MENTION IN TAFS. A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AROUND 01Z-03Z AND SWEEPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE BRINGING MVFR CIGS BEHIND IT. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...TM SHORT TERM...JV LONG TERM...TM AVIATION...JV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
637 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014 BACKEDGE OF CLEARING LINE STILL EVER SO SLOWLY CLEARING EAST- NORTHEAST. STILL NOT PROGGED TO REACH GRAND FORKS AREA TIL VERY LATE TODAY. SO CLOUDY IDEA WAY TO GO. NO ADJUSTMENT TO HIGHS TODAY BUT COULD HAVE TO BE NUDGED DOWN A FEW. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014 UPPER LOW MOVING INTO EASTERN ONTARIO EARLY THIS MORNING. ISSUE TODAY WILL BE CLOUD TRENDS AND THEN CHANCE OF PRECIP WITH NEXT WEAK SHORT WAVE FOR LATER TODAY/THIS. WRAPAROUND STRATOCU FIELD BEHIND UPPER LOW EXTENDS BACK OVER ALL OF SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH DAKOTA AND ALL OF MINNESOTA. BACKEDGE HAS BEEN CLEARING SLOWLY AND IS NEAR A STANLEY TO BISMARCK LINE AND TIMING TOOLS SHOW AT ITS CURRENT RATE IT WILL REACH WRN FCST AREA BY 15Z AND INTO THE RRV BUT PERHAPS NOT AS LATE AS 21-23Z. USING THE SFC RIDGE AXIS AS BACKEDGE OF THE STRATOCU AND LATEST HRRR IT WOULD HAVE CLEARING TRYING TO COME INTO THE VALLEY 18Z-19Z. CLOUDS WILL PUT A DAMPER ON TEMPS. NEXT SHORT WAVE IS PACIFIC MOISTURE IN NATURE AND IS MOVING INTO WESTERN MONTANA. THIS WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE TODAY AND SPREAD THRU ERN ND THIS EVENING AND INTO MINNESOTA TONIGHT. EXPECT A FEW RAIN SHOWERS WITH THIS SYSTEM THOUGH WITH MOISTURE PACIFIC IN NATURE AND MOSTLY MID LEVEL BASED AMOUNTS OF PRECIP WILL BE QUITE LOW...A FEW HUNDREDTHS AT BEST. TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM IS A BIT SLOWER THAN IT SHOWED ON PAST DAYS. BEHIND THIS SHORT WAVE...A FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE NOW WELL NORTH OF YELLOWKNIFE NWT WILL MOVE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AND TOWARD THE MN ARROWHEAD THURSDAY AFTN. EXPECT A FAST MOVING BUT SHARP COLD FRONT TO DROP SOUTH THRU THE AREA THURSDAY ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTH WINDS. MODELS HAVE HAVE TRENDED A BIT COLDER WITH THIS SYSTEM AND ALSO A BIT FARTHER WEST WITH SFC HIGH PLACEMENT. WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS IN THE NORTHEASTERN FCST AREA FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTN. ALSO TRIMMED HIGHS THURSDAY A FEW DEGREES AND UPPED WINDS A BIT HIGHER THAN BLENDED SOLNS DUE TO TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND QUICK SHOT OF STRONG 850 MB COLD ADVECTION. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014 850 MB TEMPS DROP TO -10C BY 00Z FRI AS HIGH SETTLES SOUTH INTO CNTRL ND. EXPECT A CLEAR SKY FOR MOST AREAS WITH COLDEST VALUES AND LESS WIND IN CNTRL-ERN ND. PAST FEW RUNS HAVE SHOWN A BIT COLDER AIRMASS...AND WITH THAT DROPPED LOWS FOR FRI AM A FEW DEGREES...BUT NOT QUITE AS COLD AS SOME MODELS. GENERALLY WENT 15-20F FOR ERN ND AND 20-25 IN MN. FRIDAY WILL BE A CHILLY DAY WITH SUNSHINE WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE 30S. RETURN FLOW SETS UP LATE FRI AFTN IN WRN FCST AND SPREAD EAST FRI NIGHT. ALSO SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS FRI NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. FOR SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY WILL KEEP THINGS QUIET PCPN WISE BUT IT SHOULD BE A LITTLE BREEZY. START TO GET INTO SOUTHWEST FLOW ON SUNDAY AS A 500MB TROUGH DIGS INTO THE ROCKIES. MODELS DIFFER A LITTLE IN HOW TO HANDLE THE ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THIS SYSTEM WITH THE ECMWF/GEM SHOWING TWO WEAK SFC LOWS...ONE OVER WESTERN ND AND THE SECOND OVER EASTERN COLORADO. GFS HAS ONE COMBINED LOW OVER WESTERN NE. GUIDANCE FAVORS THE ECMWF/GEM SOLUTION WHICH WOULD HAVE SOME WEAK SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN FA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NORTHERN LOW. BY MONDAY EACH MODEL DIFFERS QUITE A BIT WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING THE NORTHERN SFC LOW DOMINANT WHILE THE GEM SHOWS THE SOUTHERN ONE MORE SO AND THE GFS IN BETWEEN. THIS TRANSLATES INTO THE ECMWF BYPASSING MOST OF THE FA WITH ANY PCPN...THE GFS RIGHT OVER THE FA AND THE GEM OVER THE SOUTHERN FA. WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THIS WORKS OUT WITH LATER RUNS. BY TUE DRY WEATHER SHOULD RETURN. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014 ISSUE TODAY IS WHEN OR IF LOWER MVFR/IFR CLOUDS CLEAR OUT. BACKEDGE OF CLEARING OF MVFR DECK SLOWLY MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST AND BASED ON TIMING OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS PROGGED TO REACH DVL NR 18Z AND FAR 20Z AND GFK 21Z (IF THEN). THIS TIME PERIOD DOES FOLLOW LATEST HRRR AS WELL. WILL HAVE TO SEE IF ENOUGH SUN HEATING ON TOP OF CLOUD DECK TO ERODE A BIT FASTER BUT CONSIDERING MUCH WEAKER SUN CHANCES ARE GETTING MUCH SLIMMER. OTHER THAN THAT 06Z MODELS LOOKING LIKE A BIT BETTER BET FOR SOME -RA TONIGHT IN THE AREA SO ADDED IT TO TAFS MAINLY THIS EVE AT DVL/FAR/GFK/TVF AND OVERNIGHT AT BJI. WINDS TO TURN NORTH OVERNIGHT IN THE RRV/DVL BASIN. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...RIDDLE SHORT TERM...RIDDLE LONG TERM...GODON/RIDDLE AVIATION...RIDDLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
406 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS... SHOWERS CONCLUDE BEHIND A COLD FRONT PUSHING OFFSHORE TONIGHT. SEASONABLE AND DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS INTO THE END OF THE WEEK UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. A COASTAL STORM WILL LIKELY DELIVER A GLANCING BLOW TO THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...BUT THE OPPORTUNITY FOR A HIGHER IMPACT STILL EXISTS. MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOLLOWS WITH A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND BY NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... 230 PM UPDATE... COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS S NEW ENGLAND WITH SHOWERY WEATHER AND THICKER CLOUDS IN TOW. CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO WARM BENEATH THE THIN VEIL OF MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS. SW-FLOW CONTINUES TO GUST IN EXCESS OF 25 MPH ALONG THE S/SE SHORELINE. MAIN CONCERN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD INTO THIS EVENING IS THE TIMING OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE MAIN DRIVING FORCE THAT BEING THE STRETCHED MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. WITH CONDITIONS WARMING ACROSS SE NEW ENGLAND BENEATH A CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT...ECHO OVERNIGHT FORECASTERS THOUGHTS CONCERNING THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ACROSS SE NEW ENGLAND. NOTHING SEVERE. ASIDE...EXPECT A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER DOWNPOURS TO MARCH ACROSS THE REGION INTO THIS EVENING BENEATH FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER ASCENT. FEEL THE HIGH-RES WRF GUIDANCE AND HRRR HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE PRESENT SITUATION...ALBEIT SLIGHT DIFFERENCES. COULD SEE THE LINE OF SHOWERS BECOME DIFFUSE WITH ITS TRACK TO THE S AND E. SPECULATE THIS TO BE CONSEQUENTIAL OF STRETCHED MID-LEVEL ENERGY AND PERHAPS THE COLD FRONT BECOMING TOO SEPARATED FROM ITS PARENT MID-LEVEL TROUGH. ALSO PERHAPS AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE TOWARDS A BETTER MOIST-INSTABILITY AXIS ACTIVITY ERUPTS THAT USURPS ACTIVITY TO THE W. ALL SORTS OF FACTORS...BUT ASIDE NOT A BIG DEAL BUT JUST A SWEEPING WET-WEATHER MAKER. ALREADY 72-DEGREES HERE AT THE TAUNTON WFO. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE WARMING INTO THE MID-70S FOR S/SE NEW ENGLAND. A BLEND OF THE RAP APPEARS GOOD ENOUGH WITH REGARDS TO 2M TEMPERATURES THOUGH NOT HANDLING THE WARM-FRONT ALL THAT WELL. TONIGHT... MAIN TROUGH AXIS PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. COLD FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE AS CLOUDS AND SHOWERS LINGER REARWARD ACROSS S- AND E-PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND TOWARDS THURSDAY MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. LIKELY BLANKET OF MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS AND WET WEATHER WILL KEEP CONDITIONS MILD TOWARDS SHORES WITH LOWS AROUND THE MID-40S. ELSEWHERE...GRADUAL CLEARING EXPECTED W TO E AS W-WINDS DRIVE COOLER AND DRIER AIR ACROSS THE REGION. COOLEST CONDITIONS N AND W YET WINDS /MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER/ WILL LIKELY LIMIT EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECTING LOWS AROUND THE UPPER-30S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... THURSDAY... HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD E. SUBSIDENCE AND SINKING AIR IN CONTROL OF THE REGIONS WEATHER. WITH A COOLER AIRMASS CONTINUING TO BUILD WITHIN THE LOW-LEVELS /H85 JUST BELOW THE FREEZING MARK/ EXPECT A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY-LAYER ALLOWING FOR DRIER AIR TO MIX- DOWN /DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID-30S/ AND DEVELOPMENT OF A SCATTERED CUMULUS DECK AROUND 5-6 KFT. HIGHS AROUND THE 50S EXPECTED WHICH IS JUST ABOUT NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS. THURSDAY NIGHT... HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. COLD AIRMASS BELOW FREEZING REMAINS ALOFT. A GOOD CASE FOR EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING...THAT IS IF CLOUDS DO NOT BECOME AN ISSUE. CONSIDERING DEWPOINTS AROUND THE MID-30S ON THURSDAY...IT IS POSSIBLE LOCATIONS COULD COOL BELOW THE CROSSOVER THRESHOLD IF THE CONDITIONS ARE RIGHT AND WE ARE ALLOWED TO RADIATE OUT EFFECTIVELY. BUT BENEATH CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH WHICH WEAK IMPULSES WILL GLIDE... THERE IS ALWAYS THAT POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCEMENT OF MID-LEVEL LIFT AND CONVERGENCE YIELDING A BLANKETING CLOUD BASE. IF CONDITIONS REMAIN CLEAR...THERE IS ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO SPECULATE THAT SHALLOW GROUND FOG WILL DEVELOP WHEREVER SOILS ARE SATURATED /I.E. SWAMPY BOGS/. LOWS WOULD BOTTOM DOWN AROUND THE MID-30S...LOW- 30S FOR THOSE AREAS THAT RADIATE. WARMEST CONDITIONS ALONG THE SHORES. BUT WILL GO CONSERVATIVE WITH THIS FORECAST CONSIDERING THE POTENTIAL FOR MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECKS AND HOLD WITH LOWS AROUND THE UPPER-30S. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR FROST / FREEZE HEADLINES MAY BE NECESSARY FOR S/E COASTAL MA AND RI. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIGHLIGHTS... * COOL ON FRIDAY * GLANCING BLOW FAVORED SAT/EARLY SUN BUT HIGHER IMPACT POSSIBLE * BIGGEST CONCERN IS STRONG WINDS LATE SAT/SUN ESP CAPE COD * ACCUMULATING SNOW IS STILL POSSIBLE BUT A RATHER LOW PROBABILITY * MUCH MILDER WEATHER RETURNS BY NEXT TUE AND WED DETAILS... FRIDAY... AN ENLONGATED HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL RESULT IN A RATHER CLOUDY/COOL DAY WITH EASTERLY WINDS. A SPOT SHOWER AND PERHAPS EVEN SOME DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY. HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S ELSEWHERE. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS QUITE LOW OVER THIS TIME. ENSEMBLE SENSITIVITY PLOTS SHOW THE ENERGY RESPONSIBLE FOR DEVELOPING THE EVENTUAL STORM IS STILL NEAR THE ARCTIC CIRCLE. THIS LEAVES PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK/STRENGTH AND IMPACTS ACROSS THE REGION. WITH THAT SAID...CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS A GLANCING BLOW AND NOT A DIRECT HIT FOR OUR REGION. THE BIGGEST CONCERN RIGHT NOW IS FOR STRONG TO PERHAPS DAMAGING WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET. THERE ARE TWO MAIN SHORTWAVES INVOLVED IN STORM FORMATION. INITIALLY...MOST MODELS FORM AN ENLONGATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OR EVEN TWO CENTERS BEFORE CONSOLIDATING INTO ONE STORM. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS HAPPENS TOO LATE FOR A SIGNIFICANT RAIN/SNOW EVENT IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. A BIG CAVEAT IS THAT THIS EVENT IS CURRENTLY PROGGED BETWEEN 72 AND 96 HOUR OUT...WHICH IS QUITE A BIT OF TIME IN THE MODEL WORLD. IF THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE IS WEAKER THAN CURRENTLY DEPICTED...THE STORM WILL INTENSIFY EARLIER AND CLOSER TO THE COAST. WHILE THIS IS A LOWER PROBABILITY AT THIS POINT...ITS CERTAINLY IN THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES. WHAT EVER HAPPENS...WE CAN SAY THAT EASTERN NEW ENGLAND WILL HAVE MORE OF AN IMPACT THAN THE INTERIOR. PTYPE AND TIMING... A LOT OF THIS WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAR WEST THE MAIN PRECIPITATION SHIELD REACHES. INITIALLY...ALL PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN OR JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY. IN FACT...MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN EASTERN NEW ENGLAND...WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS IF THE CURRENT TRACK VERIFIES. IF THE TRACK SHIFTS WEST AND WE END UP GETTING INTO HEAVIER PRECIPITATION SAT NIGHT AND EARLY SUN...DYNAMIC COOLING WOULD CHANGE PTYPE TO SNOW AT LEAST IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN...BASED ON EXPECTED TRACK ACCUMULATING SNOW IS A RATHER LOW PROBABILITY...BUT STILL CAN/T BE RULED OUT. WHAT EVER HAPPENS...MOST PRECIPITATION SHOULD HAVE EXITED THE REGION BY MID MORNING ON SUNDAY. STRONG WINDS... STRONG WINDS ARE THE ONE THING WE ARE FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT WILL DEVELOP. EXCELLENT MIXING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE STORM SHOULD RESULT IN NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH DEVELOPING LATE SAT AND ESPECIALLY SUN AS MIXING INCREASES. ACROSS THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE STORM MAY SEE A PERIOD OF 50 TO 60 MPH WIND GUSTS. WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH OF THE REGION AND PERHAPS HIGH WIND WATCHES/WARNINGS FOR THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET. GIVEN MANY TREES STILL HAVE AT LEAST SOME LEAVES ON THEM...THE RISK FOR TREE DAMAGE AND ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES WILL BE ENHANCED. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... DEEP UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE REGION AND WE ENTER AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND EXPECTED WITH SOME OF THE COASTAL PLAIN POSSIBLY SEEING HIGHS BREAK 60 BY TUE OR WED. MAINLY DRY WEATHER OVER THIS TIME...BUT A SPOT SHOWER OR TWO IS POSSIBLE. && .AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW-END VFR/MVFR WITH LINE OF -RA EXPECTED TO SWEEP THE TERMINALS INTO THIS EVENING AHEAD OF WHICH SW-WINDS PREVAIL GUSTING AROUND 20-25 KTS ALONG THE S/SE SHORELINE. AN ISOLATED TSRA IS POSSIBLE OVER SE-TERMINALS...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PREVAIL IN TAF. TONIGHT...WINDS BACK W BEHIND THE LINE...DIMINISHING. MAINLY VFR. LOW-END VFR/MVFR CIGS WITH -RA LINGER OVER S AND E TERMINALS INTO MIDNIGHT...IMPROVING AFTER AS ACTIVITY PUSHES OFFSHORE. THURSDAY...VFR. LIGHT W-WINDS. SCT CIGS 4-5 KFT ACROSS INTERIOR TERMINALS. THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. LIGHT/VRB WINDS. SKC. SHALLOW PATCHY GROUND FOG POSSIBLE AT PRONE TERMINALS. KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR TO START BUT ONSHORE FLOW MAY RESULT IN MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING FRI AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY FRI NIGHT. A SPOT SHOWER OR TWO IS POSSIBLE. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON UNCERTAINTY OF TRACK/STRENGTH AND TIMING OF COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS VFR TO BE MIXED IN AT TIMES WITH MVFR SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. LOWER CONDITIONS MOST LIKELY AT THE COAST WITH RAIN OR SCATTERED SHOWERS. LOW PROBABILITY FOR A CHANGE TO SNOW AT THE END. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR BY SUNDAY...BUT NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS EXPECTED. STRONGEST WINDS CAPE AND NANTUCKET WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS POSSIBLE. MONDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR. && .MARINE... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WINDS STILL AN ISSUE ALONG THE S/SE COASTLINE WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS AND WILL REMAIN SO AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE WATERS THIS EVENING. WINDS BACK W AND DIMINISH ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS TOWARDS THURSDAY MORNING. SHOULD SEE SEAS GRADUALLY DIMINISH BELOW SMALL-CRAFT THRESHOLDS UNDER LIGHT W-WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MUCH OF THE DAY THURSDAY...AND ONTO THURSDAY NIGHT... LOOKS LIKE GOOD BOATING WEATHER. OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THOUGH MONDAY... ***STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS AND 20 FOOT SEAS POSSIBLE LATE SAT INTO SUNDAY ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLANTIC WATERS*** FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL RESULT IN EASTERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 15 KNOTS. GRADIENT WILL BE WEAK ENOUGH THOUGH TO KEEP WINDS SPEEDS/SEAS WELL BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. HIGH IMPACT MARINE EVENT EXPECTED. WHILE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING OF COASTAL LOW PRESSURE...GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS ACROSS MOST WATERS ARE PRETTY MUCH A SLAM DUNK LATE SAT INTO SUN. IN FACT...DECENT CHANCE IN A PERIOD OF STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS WITH 20 FOOT SEAS ACROSS OUR EASTERN ATLANTIC WATERS. EXACT WIND SPEEDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS WILL DEPEND UPON THE EXACT TRACK/INTENSITY OF COASTAL LOW PRESSURE...BUT APPEARS THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF A HIGH IMPACT MARINE EVENT. MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. NORTHWEST SCA WIND GUSTS AND SEAS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE MUCH OF THE DAY WITH GOOD MIXING IN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES ARE NOT HIGH LATE SAT INTO SUN...BUT THERE IS EVEN A LOW PROBABILITY FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. THE CONCERN IS FOR THE EARLY MORNING HIGH TIDE ON SUNDAY. IF WE END UP REALIZING 20 FOOT SEAS OVER THE OPEN OCEAN AND NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS...THERE COULD BE SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND EROSION. SOME OF THE HOT SPOTS WOULD BE SALISBURY AND PLUM ISLAND...HULL...SCITUATE AND PERHAPS SANDWICH HARBOR AND NANTUCKET HARBOR. AGAIN...IT WILL DEPEND ON EXACT WIND SPEEDS/WAVE HEIGHTS OUT OVER THE OCEAN DURING THE EARLY MORNING SUNDAY HIGH TIDE CYCLE. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. NH...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231>234-250. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ235-237. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ254>256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FRANK/SIPPRELL NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL LONG TERM...FRANK AVIATION...FRANK/SIPPRELL MARINE...FRANK/SIPPRELL TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...FRANK
*** FORECAST DISCUSSION STILL UNDER DEVELOPMENT ***

BIG PICTURE... 29/00Z GUIDANCE SUITE CONTINUES TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF ROOM FOR IMPROVEMENT REGARDING THE DETAILS. THE WEATHER THIS WEEK WILL BE DRIVEN BY A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED...ANOMALOUS PATTERN. THE CORE OF AN OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE WAS ABOUT 1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL. THE CORE OF THE 500 MB LOW WAS NEARLY 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL. THIS MEANS WE NEED TO KEEP THE GUIDANCE DETAILS IN PERSPECTIVE... AS MODELS TYPICALLY DO NOT HANDLE EXTREME EVENTS PERFECTLY. IT IS ENCOURAGING TO SEE THE GUIDANCE CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION THOUGH. WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR A CONSENSUS MEAN SOLUTION TO SMOOTH OVER SOME OF THE MINOR DIFFERENCES. WE EXPECT BETTER AGREEMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS NOW THAT THE ENERGY WHICH WILL PRODUCE THIS COASTAL STORM WILL BE OVER LAND AND BETTER SAMPLED. THE 29/00 ECMWF STILL REMAINS SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST AND QUICKER WITH IT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE. THAT SAID...ITS TRACK IS STILL EAST OF 70W LONGITUDE AS IT PASSES BY OUR REGION. THIS SHOULD MEAN THE GREATEST EFFECTS SHOULD BE FELT TOWARD THE COASTS. THE DAILIES... THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...COOLING ALOFT WITH WEAK RIDGING NEAR THE SURFACE. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE WEATHER DRY INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF FRIDAY. AS A SHORTWAVE DIVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES TROUGH AND TURNS THE UPPER FLOW OVER US MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. MEANWHILE WEAK RIDGING BUILDS TO OUR NORTH AND TURNS OUR WIND EAST OR NORTHEAST. SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...THIS WILL BE THE MAIN PERIOD OF RISK FOR PRECIPITATION DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. UPPER JET FROM CENTRAL CANADA FEEDS AROUND THIS UPPER TROUGH WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION MOVING OVER THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY. THIS SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING. STILL SOME QUESTIONS WITH THE TRACK...WHICH WILL BE A KEY INGREDIENT TO DETERMINING PRECIPITATION TYPE. CONFIDENT THAT THERE WILL BE UNSETTLED WEATHER THIS WEEKEND...WITH GREATEST RISK ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN AND DIMINISHING POPS FARTHER NORTHWEST. WILL REFLECT THIS WITH LIKELY POPS SOUTHEAST GRADING TO CHANCE POPS NORTHWEST. LOWER CONFIDENCE ON PRECIPITATION TYPE. MUCH OF THIS TIME SHOULD BE RAIN. WITH TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO FALL TO FREEZING OR BELOW SATURDAY NIGHT...THE RESULT WILL BE SOME SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. LINGERING CLOUDS BENEATH THE COLD POOL ALOFT...ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY. OTHERWISE FAIR AND DRY WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL BY TUESDAY. && .AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW-END VFR/MVFR WITH LINE OF -RA EXPECTED TO SWEEP THE TERMINALS INTO THIS EVENING AHEAD OF WHICH SW-WINDS PREVAIL GUSTING AROUND 20-25 KTS ALONG THE S/SE SHORELINE. AN ISOLATED TSRA IS POSSIBLE OVER SE-TERMINALS...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PREVAIL IN TAF. TONIGHT...WINDS BACK W BEHIND THE LINE...DIMINISHING. MAINLY VFR. LOW-END VFR/MVFR CIGS WITH -RA LINGER OVER S AND E TERMINALS INTO MIDNIGHT...IMPROVING AFTER AS ACTIVITY PUSHES OFFSHORE. THURSDAY...VFR. LIGHT W-WINDS. SCT CIGS 4-5 KFT ACROSS INTERIOR TERMINALS. THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. LIGHT/VRB WINDS. SKC. SHALLOW PATCHY GROUND FOG POSSIBLE AT PRONE TERMINALS. KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND PRECIPITATION TYPE. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION OCCURRENCE. CIGS/VSBYS LOWERING TO IFR COASTAL PLAIN AND MVFR NORTHWEST. COASTAL STORM PASSES BY LATER SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ESPECIALLY KMHT-KORH-KBAF-KBDL. PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF SUNDAY. NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS WITH GUSTS ALONG THE COAST 25-35 KNOTS SATURDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 KNOTS INLAND AND 30 TO 40 KNOTS ALONG THE COAST. && .MARINE... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WINDS STILL AN ISSUE ALONG THE S/SE COASTLINE WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS AND WILL REMAIN SO AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE WATERS THIS EVENING. WINDS BACK W AND DIMINISH ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS TOWARDS THURSDAY MORNING. SHOULD SEE SEAS GRADUALLY DIMINISH BELOW SMALL-CRAFT THRESHOLDS UNDER LIGHT W-WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MUCH OF THE DAY THURSDAY...AND ONTO THURSDAY NIGHT... LOOKS LIKE GOOD BOATING WEATHER. OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. FRIDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE WATERS. NORTHWEST WINDS THURSDAY BECOME NORTHEAST FRIDAY BUT REMAIN BELOW 20 KNOTS. SEAS GENERALLY LESS THAN 5 FEET. FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...COASTAL LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE CAROLINAS AND MOVES UP THE COAST. MODERATE UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING...WITH THE GENERAL CONSENSUS SOLUTION STAYING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. AT LEAST MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS SATURDAY 25 TO 35 KNOTS SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST 30 TO 40 KNOTS SUNDAY. A GALE WATCH/GALE WARNING MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS WEEKEND. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. NH...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231>234-250. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235- 237. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ254>256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BELK/SIPPRELL NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL LONG TERM...BELK AVIATION...BELK/SIPPRELL MARINE...BELK/SIPPRELL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
124 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. THE FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHICH WILL BRING DRY...SEASONABLE CONDITIONS. A DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM OFF THE CAROLINAS WILL PASS OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN USA EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 130 PM UPDATE... COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS S NEW ENGLAND WITH SHOWERY WEATHER AND THICKER CLOUDS IN TOW. FOG HAS ALL BUT DISSIPATED BENEATH THE THIN VEIL OF MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS AS ITS TRANSPARENCY HAS ALLOWED CONDITIONS TO WARM RESULTING IN THE WARM-FRONT TO PUSH N INTO NH AND ME...AIDED BY SW-FLOW WHICH CONTINUES TO GUST IN EXCESS OF 25 MPH ALONG THE S/SE SHORELINE. MAIN CONCERN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD INTO THIS EVENING IS THE TIMING OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE MAIN DRIVING FORCE THAT BEING THE STRETCHED MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. WITH CONDITIONS WARMING ACROSS SE NEW ENGLAND BENEATH A CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT...ECHO THE OVERNIGHT FORECASTERS THOUGHTS CONCERNING THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED REGION. NOTHING SEVERE. ASIDE...EXPECT A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER DOWNPOURS TO MARCH ACROSS THE REGION INTO THIS EVENING BENEATH FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER ASCENT. FEEL THE HIGH-RES WRF GUIDANCE AND HRRR HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE PRESENT SITUATION...ALBEIT SLIGHT DIFFERENCES. COULD SEE THE LINE OF SHOWERS BECOME DIFFUSE WITH ITS TRACK TO THE S AND E. SPECULATE THIS TO BE CONSEQUENTIAL OF STRETCHED MID-LEVEL ENERGY AND PERHAPS THE COLD FRONT BECOMING TOO SEPARATED FROM ITS PARENT MID-LEVEL TROUGH. ALSO PERHAPS AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE TOWARDS A BETTER MOIST-INSTABILITY AXIS ACTIVITY ERUPTS THAT USURPS ACTIVITY TO THE W. ALL SORTS OF FACTORS...BUT ASIDE NOT A BIG DEAL BUT JUST A SWEEPING WET-WEATHER MAKER. ALREADY 72-DEGREES HERE AT THE TAUNTON WFO. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE WARMING INTO THE MID-70S FOR SE NEW ENGLAND. A BLEND OF THE HRRR/RAP APPEARS SPOT-ON WITH REGARDS TO 2M TEMPERATURES THOUGH NOT HANDLING THE WARM-FRONT ALL THAT WELL...AND HENCE THE HEADACHES WITH THIS MORNINGS FORECAST. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... TONIGHT... THE H5 LONG WAVE TROUGH PUSHES E...AND APPROACHING WESTERN AREAS BY EARLY THURSDAY. SCT SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH MIDNIGHT OR SO ACROSS E MA/RI/NE CT...BUT SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER THAT. H85 TEMPS WILL STEADILY DROP OVERNIGHT...BUT SOME CLOUDS WILL LINGER. BY SUNRISE...H85 TEMPS FALL TO -2C ACROSS WESTERN AREAS TO +2C ACROSS THE CAPE. WHILE NW WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...EXPECT THEM TO STIR ENOUGH NOT TOO ALLOW RADIATIONAL COOLING WHERE SKIES BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY WELL INLAND. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES TO BETWEEN 45 AND 50 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THURSDAY... SURFACE HIGH RIDGE BUILDS NE INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY WHILE THE H5 TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE DURING THURSDAY. MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE AS COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES TO SHIFT ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPS WILL ONLY TOP OFF IN THE 50S...CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS BUT A GOOD 15 DEGREES OR SO LOWER THAN TODAY. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... BIG PICTURE... 29/00Z GUIDANCE SUITE CONTINUES TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF ROOM FOR IMPROVEMENT REGARDING THE DETAILS. THE WEATHER THIS WEEK WILL BE DRIVEN BY A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED...ANOMALOUS PATTERN. THE CORE OF AN OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE WAS ABOUT 1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL. THE CORE OF THE 500 MB LOW WAS NEARLY 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL. THIS MEANS WE NEED TO KEEP THE GUIDANCE DETAILS IN PERSPECTIVE... AS MODELS TYPICALLY DO NOT HANDLE EXTREME EVENTS PERFECTLY. IT IS ENCOURAGING TO SEE THE GUIDANCE CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION THOUGH. WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR A CONSENSUS MEAN SOLUTION TO SMOOTH OVER SOME OF THE MINOR DIFFERENCES. WE EXPECT BETTER AGREEMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS NOW THAT THE ENERGY WHICH WILL PRODUCE THIS COASTAL STORM WILL BE OVER LAND AND BETTER SAMPLED. THE 29/00 ECMWF STILL REMAINS SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST AND QUICKER WITH IT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE. THAT SAID...ITS TRACK IS STILL EAST OF 70W LONGITUDE AS IT PASSES BY OUR REGION. THIS SHOULD MEAN THE GREATEST EFFECTS SHOULD BE FELT TOWARD THE COASTS. THE DAILIES... THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...COOLING ALOFT WITH WEAK RIDGING NEAR THE SURFACE. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE WEATHER DRY INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF FRIDAY. AS A SHORTWAVE DIVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES TROUGH AND TURNS THE UPPER FLOW OVER US MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. MEANWHILE WEAK RIDGING BUILDS TO OUR NORTH AND TURNS OUR WIND EAST OR NORTHEAST. SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...THIS WILL BE THE MAIN PERIOD OF RISK FOR PRECIPITATION DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. UPPER JET FROM CENTRAL CANADA FEEDS AROUND THIS UPPER TROUGH WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION MOVING OVER THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY. THIS SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING. STILL SOME QUESTIONS WITH THE TRACK...WHICH WILL BE A KEY INGREDIENT TO DETERMINING PRECIPITATION TYPE. CONFIDENT THAT THERE WILL BE UNSETTLED WEATHER THIS WEEKEND...WITH GREATEST RISK ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN AND DIMINISHING POPS FARTHER NORTHWEST. WILL REFLECT THIS WITH LIKELY POPS SOUTHEAST GRADING TO CHANCE POPS NORTHWEST. LOWER CONFIDENCE ON PRECIPITATION TYPE. MUCH OF THIS TIME SHOULD BE RAIN. WITH TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO FALL TO FREEZING OR BELOW SATURDAY NIGHT...THE RESULT WILL BE SOME SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. LINGERING CLOUDS BENEATH THE COLD POOL ALOFT...ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY. OTHERWISE FAIR AND DRY WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL BY TUESDAY. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW-END VFR/MVFR WITH LINE OF -RA EXPECTED TO SWEEP THE TERMINALS INTO THIS EVENING AHEAD OF WHICH SW-WINDS PREVAIL GUSTING AROUND 20-25 KTS ALONG THE S/SE SHORELINE. AN ISOLATED TSRA IS POSSIBLE OVER SE-TERMINALS...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PREVAIL IN TAF. TONIGHT...WINDS BACK W BEHIND THE LINE...DIMINISHING. MAINLY VFR. LOW-END VFR/MVFR CIGS WITH -RA LINGER OVER S AND E TERMINALS INTO MIDNIGHT...IMPROVING AFTER AS ACTIVITY PUSHES OFFSHORE. THURSDAY...VFR. LIGHT W-WINDS. SCT CIGS 4-5 KFT ACROSS INTERIOR TERMINALS. THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. LIGHT/VRB WINDS. SKC. SHALLOW PATCHY GROUND FOG POSSIBLE AT PRONE TERMINALS. KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND PRECIPITATION TYPE. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION OCCURRENCE. CIGS/VSBYS LOWERING TO IFR COASTAL PLAIN AND MVFR NORTHWEST. COASTAL STORM PASSES BY LATER SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ESPECIALLY KMHT-KORH-KBAF-KBDL. PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF SUNDAY. NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS WITH GUSTS ALONG THE COAST 25-35 KNOTS SATURDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 KNOTS INLAND AND 30 TO 40 KNOTS ALONG THE COAST. && .MARINE... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. TODAY AND TONIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS AS LOW LEVEL SW JET MOVES ACROSS TODAY. EXPECT GUSTS UP TO AROUND 25 KT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO AROUND 6 FT ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. AS THE FRONT PASSES A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WHICH MAY REDUCE VSBYS. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WINDS SHIFT TO W AND TEND TO DIMINISH TONIGHT...BUT WILL STILL SEE SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 KT EARLY ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS. SEAS WILL LINGER AOA 5 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS...BUT SHOULD SLOWLY SUBSIDE. THURSDAY...LIGHT NW WINDS IN PLACE. LEFTOVER 5 FT SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS EARLY SHOULD SUBSIDE. OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE WATERS. NORTHWEST WINDS THURSDAY BECOME NORTHEAST FRIDAY BUT REMAIN BELOW 20 KNOTS. SEAS GENERALLY LESS THAN 5 FEET. FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...COASTAL LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE CAROLINAS AND MOVES UP THE COAST. MODERATE UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING...WITH THE GENERAL CONSENSUS SOLUTION STAYING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. AT LEAST MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS SATURDAY 25 TO 35 KNOTS SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST 30 TO 40 KNOTS SUNDAY. A GALE WATCH/GALE WARNING MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS WEEKEND. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. NH...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231>234-250. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235- 237. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ254>256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BELK/EVT NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL SHORT TERM...EVT LONG TERM...BELK AVIATION...BELK/SIPPRELL MARINE...BELK/EVT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1113 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014 .DISCUSSION... 315 AM CDT SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING...THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH WINDS AND CLOUD COVER, LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A STRATOCU DECK SPREADING ACROSS NRN IL...ASSOCIATED WITH A SECONDARY SURGE OF COOLER AIR AROUND THE SWRN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR JAMES BAY. CLEAR SKIES PREVAILED OVER THE CWA THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH AS RADIATIONAL COOLING ALLOWED A NOCTURNAL INVERSION TO FORM...DECOUPLING THE LOWER LEVELS FROM STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. HOWEVER...AS THE WRAPAROUND CLOUD COVER OVERSPREADS THE REGION...WINDS WILL PICK UP ONCE AGAIN...AND PER UPSTREAM OBS. EXPECT THAT THE WEAKER WSWLY WINDS WILL VEER TO MORE WNWLY AND GUST UP TO ARND 25KT. THE STRONGER WINDS AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD ONLY COVER LOCATIONS GENERALLY NORTH OF THE ILLINOIS AND KANKAKEE RIVERS...PER LATEST MODEL RH GUIDANCE AND TIMING OF THE LEADING EDGE OF THE CLOUD DECK...SO THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA SHOULD REMAIN UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHTER WINDS. TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE EVEN LOWER THAN YESTERDAY AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER NWLY FLOW AT THE SFC AND ALOFT...WITH PERSISTENT COLD ADVECTION. HIGHS WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY REACH INTO THE UPPER 40S GENERALLY NORTH OF THE I-88 CORRIDOR WITH LOWER 50S TO THE SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OUT OF THE NRN PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE WRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. THIS SHOULD BRING DECREASING CLOUD COVER AS WELL AS DECREASING WINDS WITH THE DECREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT. BY EARLY THIS EVENING... WINDS SHOULD BECM NEAR CALM. THE CLEARING SKIES AND CALM WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING...AND WITH DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER 30S...TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S AS WELL. EVEN THE CHICAGO URBAN HEAT ISLAND AREA WILL GET QUITE CHILLY...WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 30S. KREIN THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... WHILE THE WEEK BEGAN ON A VERY MILD NOTE...WITH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S MON...THE WEEK CLOSES OUT AS NEARLY THE INVERSE OF HOW IT BEGAN. BROAD MID-LVL TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE BULK OF THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY REGIONS THUR...WITH A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE POISED TO SWEEP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY THUR. GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO SUGGEST WITH THIS FEATURE THAT A WEAK SFC FEATURE WILL DEVELOP NEAR NORTHEAST KS...WITH WEAK ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM SOME LGT PRECIP MAY OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA. THE SFC LOW THEN DEEPENS ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN LATE THUR NGT/EARLY FRI...AS A POTENT CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SLIDE SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS TIGHTENS QUICKLY FRI MORNING...AND WILL PRODUCE BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE MIDDAY FRI. ACCOMPANYING THE STRONG CANADIAN HIGH WILL BE MUCH COLDER AIR...AS TEMPS WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO WARM BEYOND THE LOW TO MID 40S. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A SLUG OF 850MB TEMPS DROPPING TO -6 TO -10 DEG C MIDDAY FRI/EARLY AFTN...WHICH MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPS COOLER IN THE UPR 30S/LOW 40S FRI. THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND TEMPS IN THE LOW 40S...WILL LIKELY CREATE WIND CHILL VALUES AROUND 30-33 DEGREES FRI AFTN. PRECIP AT THIS TIME SHUD REMAIN IN LIQUID FORM FRI...HOWEVER AS COLDER AIR ADVECTS IN FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST FRI LATE AFTN/EARLY EVE...WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW. LAKE EFFECT PRECIP LOOKS FAVORABLE AS WELL...HOWEVER GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS AND REDUCED RESONANCE TIME...THE ONSET WILL LIKELY START CELLULAR. THEN AS WINDS DIMINISH LATE FRI NGT A FEW BANDS MAY TRY TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHWEST IND. TEMPS WILL COOL ENOUGH OVERNIGHT TO CHANGE ALL PRECIP OVER TO SNOW...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS TIME. TEMPS FRI NIGHT OVER LAND WILL LIKELY DIP INTO THE MID/UPR 20S ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE LAKE WHERE SKIES SHUD ERODE EARLIER FRI NGT. FURTHER EAST LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY WARMER. CONFIDENCE...HIGH. SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK... THE WEEKEND WILL START UNSEASONABLY COLD WITH A DEEP 500MB TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS...AND A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE STRETCHING NORTH THROUGH THE PLAINS INTO GREENLAND. BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND THE TROUGH BEGINS TO WEAKEN. SFC RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES SAT WILL SHIFT EAST SUN. GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED THE DEPARTURE OF THE SFC RIDGE SLIGHTLY...WHICH WILL RESULT IN HOW QUICKLY THE SECONDARY TROUGH CAN PUSH INTO THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT A TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE SOUTHWEST CONUS LATE SUN/EARLY MON...WITH A SFC LOW DEVELOPING EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL LIKELY SET THE STAGE FOR A SLOW MODERATION IN TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH PRECIP CHANCES INCREASING MON. CONFIDENCE...HIGH. BEACHLER && .AVIATION... //ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z... * NONE. RODRIGUEZ //DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z... AS THE DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK NEWD THROUGH CANADA...A SECONDARY SURGE OF COOLER AIR AND A BKN-OVC STRATOCU DECK HAS OVERSPREAD THE REGION. THE SECONDARY SURGE OF COOLER AIR AND INCREASED COLD ADVECTION WILL BRING GUSTS TO ARND 25KT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND SPREAD EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...LEADING TO CLEARING SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS. DURG THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...THE HIGH WILL BE RIGHT ON TOP OF THE AREA...AND WINDS SHOULD BECOME LGT/VRBL UNDER CLEAR SKIES... WHICH SHOULD THEN BE THE PREVAILING CONDITION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. KREIN //ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z... * HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL FORECAST ELEMENTS. RODRIGUEZ //OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 12Z... * THURSDAY NIGHT...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA LATE. STRONG NWLY WINDS DEVELOPING LATE. * FRIDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA EARLY SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA/SHSN MIX LATE. STRONG/GUSTY NORTH WINDS. * SATURDAY...VFR. WX NIL. NORTHEAST WINDS. * SUNDAY....VFR. WX NIL. SOUTH WINDS. * MONDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS. * TUESDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA. SOUTHWEST WINDS. KREIN && .MARINE... 230 AM CDT DEEPENING LOW OVER JAMES BAY WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES...AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SLIDES SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL DIMINISH WINDS ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT/THUR MORNING. THEN A WEAK LOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY THUR AND QUICKLY SLIDE EAST TOWARDS LAKE MICHIGAN...BEFORE DEEPENING TO A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE OVER LOWER MICHIGAN THUR NGT/EARLY FRI. THEN THE TIME PERIOD OF GREATEST CONCERN WILL BE FRI WITH A VERY POTENT CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE REGION POISED TO SLIDE SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRI MORNING. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW/HIGH CONTINUES TO BE SUPPORTIVE OF GENERATING GALES TO 40KT AND POSSIBLY 45KT AROUND 9Z FRI MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE...AND LIKELY DEVELOP FURTHER SOUTH AROUND DAYBREAK FRI OR SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK FRI. GUIDANCE HAS REMAINED CONSISTENT WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN NORTH GALES 40-45KTS DEVELOPING FRI...SO HAVE OPTED TO JUST JUMP TO A GALE WARNING RATHER THAN A WATCH. THERE IS A SMALL WINDOW MIDDAY FRI WHERE A FEW STORM FORCE GUSTS COULD OCCUR...BUT THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FOR ANY DURATION OF STORM FORCE WINDS. WITH THE NORTH GALES...AND FOR A DECENT DURATION...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WAVES COULD BE SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH TO PRODUCE THE NEED FOR BEACH HAZARDS ALONG THE INDIANA SHORELINE FRI AS WELL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE LAKE LATE FRI NGT AND STEADILY DIMINISH THE WINDS. WINDS/WAVES WILL FURTHER DIMINISH SAT/SUN AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE LAKE. BEACHLER && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. IN...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 3 PM WEDNESDAY. GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ740-LMZ741- LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ870-LMZ872- LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...7 AM FRIDAY TO 4 AM SATURDAY. GALE WARNING...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-LMZ567- LMZ868...4 AM FRIDAY TO 10 PM FRIDAY. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 1052 AM CDT Wed Oct 29 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1048 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014 A mostly sunny morning for most of Central Illinois is slowly giving way to developing clouds building in from the north. Cool conditions behind the front as high pressure builds back into the region. Temps a little slow to rise over the area and clouds north of I-74 are going to complicate that a bit more. Have bumped the highs down a degree or so and adjusted the hourly temps... but a major update is not anticipated in this quiet weather pattern. && .SHORT TERM...(Today) ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014 Surface high pressure will begin to build into the state today, but not until this afternoon. This morning, however, a large area of clouds continues to move southeast-east in connection with a mid level trough that is rotating through the Great Lakes region. Satellite trends indicate that some of these clouds will advect into northern parts of the area this morning and then should move east through the day, leaving the CWA later this afternoon. So, this morning, looking at partly sunny skies in the north, roughly north of a Canton to Bloomington line. Satellite also indicates there are some breaks in the clouds, so believe sunshine this morning should help some to burn some of it off. CU rule does have some CU developing, but only in the scattered range. Remainder of the CWA should be mostly sunny to sunny. Despite the sunshine today, cooler temperatures, below normal, have returned to the area. Looking for temperatures in the 50s by this afternoon, which is really close to both the MET and MAV guidance. && .LONG TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday) ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014 Northwest upper level flow will persist into the weekend, helping to keep temperatures below normal, with coldest air from Friday through this weekend. A hard freeze still looks likely Friday night with lows in the upper 20s across much of central/se IL and a freeze watch will likely eventually be needed overnight Friday night into early Saturday morning. Weak high pressure around 1022 mb over the central plains to drift east over IL by overnight and bring fair skies and light winds with cool lows in the mid to upper 30s, with patchy frost overnight from Lincoln eastward into IN. Some high clouds increase over western areas later tonight and get a return se flow to limit frost formation in western IL tonight. A weak disturbance over the Pacific Northwest, is expected to dive se across MO Thursday afternoon, and into the TN river valley by overnight Thu night. This to bring a chance of rain showers to central IL by Thu afternoon and evening and shifting east of I-57 overnight Thu night. The 00Z models, especially NAM model, have increased rain chances and qpf amounts over our CWA with this weather system. Highs Thu in the middle to upper 50s with mildest readings sw areas and se IL. Chances of showers will shift east into IN Friday where strong upper level trof digs over the eastern states. Models have trended stronger with this trof and also windier and colder over IL with more qpf just east of IL over IN/OH/KY. Wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph on Friday and Friday evening along with highs only in the 40s Friday will not make for very nice weather for trick or treaters Friday evening. Stronger Canadian surface high pressure of 1034 mb settling into the Midwest Friday night, will produce good radiational cooling conditions overnight Friday night and a likely hard freeze later Friday night and early Saturday morning. Chilly highs Sat in the mid to upper 40s. Another freeze likely Sat night with lows in the upper 20s eastern IL and lower 30s central and western IL. Highs Sunday in the upper 40s and lower 50s. After a chilly first weekend of November (and a sharp contrast from the warm weekend the last weekend of October), temperatures will moderate a bit during the 1st half of next work week with highs 55-60F Monday-Wednesday. Upper level flow becomes more southwesterly and unsettled over IL early next work week and a frontal boundary to set up from the southern plains ne into the Ohio river valley. This likely to bring widespread rain of a half to 1 inch to the region from Monday into Tuesday with isolated thunderstorms possible south of I-72. The rain showers should diminish to slight chances on Wed as frontal boundary weakens as it sags south of IL. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning) ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014 VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites next 24hrs. An area of clouds around 4kft continues to advect into the area this morning, and will effect all sites today. Based on satellite trends and timing tools, looks like the broken cigs will be at PIA and BMI around start of TAF forecast. Believe these broken cigs will last til this evening, when it will become clear for tonight. Satellite trends and HRRR model cloud forecast looks like the clouds will thin as they continue to move southeast. Therefore, will be going with just scattered clouds for the other three TAF sites, SPI/DEC/CMI; but, will also include a 4hr TEMPO group for broken cigs during the morning hours. Skies will clear at these three sites around 00-02z as well, staying clear the remainder of the TAF period. Winds will be west to northwest today at around 10-15kts, but then become light and variable tonight. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...HJS SHORT TERM...Auten LONG TERM...07 AVIATION...Auten
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1054 AM MDT WED OCT 29 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 334 AM MDT WED OCT 29 2014 EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW LARGE SCALE TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH AN UPSTREAM RIDGE EXTENDING NORTH ALONG THE ROCKIES. NW FLOW IS IN PLACE OVER THE CWA BETWEEN THESE FEATURES. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO LINGER OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A WEAK LEE TROUGH BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN COLORADO. RIDGING WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST US THROUGH THURSDAY WITH NW FLOW OVER THE CWA. LEE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN TODAY IN RESPONSE TO CROSS MOUNTAIN FLOW IN THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...WITH HIGHS ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOWER 70S. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NW FLOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. WITH A DEEP DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED. THIS TROUGH WILL KICK A COLD FRONT SOUTH OVER THE CWA TONIGHT WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO SEASONAL VALUES IN THE 60S ON THURSDAY. FLOW ALOFT AMPLIFIES FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND A LARGE SCALE TROUGH BEGINS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WESTERN US. THERE WILL BE A FEW EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WITHIN THE MEAN FLOW...HOWEVER A VERY DRY AIR MASS AND UNFAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL STORM TRACKS WILL LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS FRIDAY AND THE ASSOCIATED BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 50S TO THE CWA (POSSIBLY LOWER IN THE NORTHEAST). THE AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL ALSO SUPPORT DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER COLORADO...AND WITH THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE...TIGHTENING GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL LIMIT DIURNAL COOLING. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 334 AM MDT WED OCT 29 2014 HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING TO THE EAST AND CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE AREA THROUGH MID DAY SUNDAY. ON SATURDAY THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST WILL PRODUCE A STIFF SOUTHERLY WIND. THIS COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE WEAK AND WILL PASS OVER THE FA STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THIS FRONT SO WILL ADD A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS...MOSTLY IN THE NORTHWEST AREA OF THE FA. AFTER THE FRONT PASSES ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGAN TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL CAUSE THE WINDS TO SHIFT TO WEST-NORTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH AND THE TEMPERATURES TO DECREASE TO AT OR BELOW FREEZING EARLY ON MONDAY MORNING. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST STARTS TO MOVE TOWARDS THE EAST MORE OF THE AREA WILL SEE MORE SEASONAL WEATHER THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1051 AM MDT WED OCT 29 2014 VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD FOR BOTH KGLD AND KMCK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE WEATHER OVER THE HIGH PLAINS REGION. WINDS WILL SHIFT OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS...BRINGING GUSTY WINDS FOR BOTH TERMINALS AND SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DR LONG TERM...BDW AVIATION...MK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
106 PM EDT Wed Oct 29 2014 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... ...Forecast Update... Issued at 745 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2014 The back edge of the clouds is about halfway through the region, but in its wake are a thin layer of low clouds, as evident on satellite fog product, area webcams, and automated observing stations. Have add patchy dense fog to the forecast for the next couple of hours, as the HRRR and NARRE both hint at these clouds sticking around. Also issued a special weather statement highlighting the impact. Issued at 620 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2014 Updated the forecast to reduce precip chances over south central KY as precip is making quick progress eastward out of the area early this morning. Also, added some patchy fog over portions of southwest Indiana and west central KY where clearing has begun and visibilities are dropping at some observation sites. .SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)... Issued at 300 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2014 Early this morning, a shortwave was riding NE along the cold front just to our south and east. This wave will provide another round of light rain showers to south central KY and southern portions of the Bluegrass during the pre-dawn hours. These locations may see up to an additional tenth of an inch of rainfall early this morning. This last wave of rainfall should exit the Lake Cumberland region around or just after sunrise with cooler, drier air pushing in from the NW throughout the day. Skies will become mostly sunny by mid morning with high temps topping out in the upper 50s to lower 60s this afternoon. Tonight sfc high pressure will enter the Ohio Valley with most models progging it to become centered over our region around sunrise. This high will provide light winds, subsidence, and good rad cooling conditions which will result in low temps in the mid to upper 30s Thurs morning. Temps in this range will make at least patchy frost formation possible in sheltered/valley locations. Tonight could be a Frost Advisory candidate especially for southern Indiana and north central Kentucky. Will need to re-evaluate winds, dewpts, and temps this afternoon to determine if frost formation would be widespread enough for a Frost Advisory Thurs morning. Stay tuned! After a cold start Thurs morning, temps should warm into the mid 50s to around 60 Thurs afternoon. Clouds will be on the increase Thurs afternoon as the next weather system approaches for Thurs night. .LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)... Issued at 420 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2014 ...Blast of Cold Air Coming This Weekend with Sub-Freezing Temperatures Likely by Sunday... OK, let`s cut to the chase. Friday evening is what you`re really interested in, since the streets will be full of little goblins and you`ll either be accompanying them or opening your doors for them. Either way, it`s not going to be pleasant. Light showers will be occurring in most areas with temperatures falling through the 40s - if not into the 30s - before the last doorbell is rung. And some of the precipitation falling from those showers will likely be in the form of light snow if you stay out too late. When you add north winds gusting from 15 to 25 mph, well, let`s just say that it`s going to be cold. The extended period will bring us a taste of the season to come as a progressive upper level weather pattern keeps forecasters on their toes. We start out with a series of upper disturbances diving south out of Canada, deepening a trof over the eastern U.S. and dragging the colder air into the Ohio Valley. Showers will first move into the region overnight Thursday, then increase in coverage during the day Friday along with the push of cold air coming in rapidly on north winds as a tight surface gradient sets up between Low pressure over the Appalachians and High pressure over the upper Mississippi Valley. This leads into the aforementioned blustery weather Friday night. Wind chills Friday night will fall into the 20s, but with the gusty winds, actual air temperatures should not fall below freezing Saturday morning. The same won`t be true for Sunday morning though, as the surface High moves in from the upper Mississippi Valley, clearing out skies and dropping winds off to allow for peak radiational cooling by Sunday morning. Temperature by dawn on the day we move the clocks back an hour should be in the upper 20s across the entire area, effectively putting an end to the outdoor growing season. A gradual warmup will occur Sunday into Monday as the High drifts slowly east and return southerly flow sets up. This will set the stage for the next chance for showers from Monday night into Tuesday. These will stay in the form of rain, rather than snow, though, as daytime temperatures moderate back into the upper 60s Monday and Tuesday - up considerably from Saturday`s max temperatures in the 40s. && .AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)... Updated at 103 PM EDT Wed Oct 29 2014 VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period, although there could be some light fog in prone locations towards Thursday morning. For the remainder of this afternoon, expect westerly winds to turn more WNW and continue around 10 knots with gusts upwards of 15 knots at times. Clouds (around FL035) from the northwest will attempt to push into KSDF and KLEX this evening, but will likely struggle to do so as they mix out late this afternoon. Some guidance is trying to hint at more fog development overnight at KLEX and KBWG. However, drier air is quickly working in and even guidance suggesting fog has morning dewpoint depression upwards of 3 degrees. Therefore, will just hint at fog development with a 6SM group at KLEX and KBWG, but leave any restrictions out for now. Otherwise, Thursday will just feature some increasing high clouds, but winds will remain light with VFR conditions continuing. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ Update.........RJS/AMS Short Term.....AMS Long Term......JBS Aviation.......KJD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
638 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION BY THIS EVENING. COOLER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND...BRINGING EVEN COLDER AIR THE CHANCE OF SOME RAIN AND SNOW. WHILE AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS TO PASS MOSTLY OUT TO SEA...SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 630 PM UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST A BIT THIS EVENING MAINLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE TIMING OF THE BAND OF RAIN MOVING ACROSS THE CWA. THE HRRR HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON IT AND HAVE USED IT/S TIMING. THE BAND SHOULD SPEED UP A BIT AND EXIT THE COAST PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. PREVIOUSLY... SFC COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOOKS TO STRETCH SW ALONG THE ST LAWRENCE VLY AND THEN INTO CENTRAL NY. SHOULD BEGIN TO TRACK MORE QUICKLY TO THE E OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND THE BAND OF SHOWERS WILL SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE CWA THRU LATE THIS AFT AND DURING EARLY EVENING. THE SHRA SHOULD CLEAR ALL BUT THE MID-COAST BY7 AROUND 00Z...AND SHOULD EXIT THERE BY 02Z. WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR OUT ANY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG LINGERING ALONG THE COAST...AND SKIES SHOULD AT LEAST PARTIALLY CLEAR OUT IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS....WITH CLOUDS LINGERING IN THE MTNS. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AFTER A WEAK 500MB RIDGE PASSE4S THRU THE CWA EARLY AM...WHICH COULD PRODUCE A CLUSTER OF MID-HIGH EARLY...SHOULD SEE SFC HIGH BUILD IN FROM THE W AS WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPS ALOFT. WILL SEE UPSLOPE CLOUDS AND DOWNSLOPE CLEARING DURING THE DAY....WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. WINDS DROP OFF FOR A MAINLY CLEAR AND CALM THU NIGHT...SO TEMPS WILL GENERALLY FALL INTO THE 30S. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... MAIN FOCUS OF THE EXTENDED REVOLVES AROUND POWERFUL LOW PRES SYSTEM THAT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND. A POTENT S/WV WILL CARVE OUT A SEASONABLY STRONG TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT WITH DIGGING A -3 TO -5 SD CLOSED LOW THRU THE CAROLINAS SAT. THIS EXITS THE COAST AND FUELS A POWERFUL LOW PRES OVER THE WATERS THAT RACES NEWD. THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS A LEAD S/WV THAT IS FORECAST TO TRIGGER CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE COAST PRIOR TO THE MAIN UPPER TROF ARRIVING OVER EAST COAST. THE RESULT IS A PUSH EWD OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE...WHICH KEEPS THE SECOND SFC LOW FARTHER OUT TO SEA FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE CLOSED NATURE OF THE UPPER LEVELS THIS SFC LOW WILL TRY AND TUCK BACK TOWARDS THE COAST WITH TIME...SO COASTAL ME IS NOT LEFT HIGH AND DRY. INCREASING LONGITUDE WILL MEAN INCREASING UNCERTAINTY REGARDING QPF IN THIS SET UP. PARTS OF NH COULD SEE VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PCPN...WHILE THE PENOBSCOT BAY REGION SEES CLOSE TO AN INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT. ATTM A MULTI MODEL BLEND SEEMS PRUDENT...THOUGH THE INDIVIDUAL PIECES OF GUIDANCE ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH A NEAR MISS. THE RESULTING QPF FORECAST IS AROUND 0.10 INCHES FOR THE CT RIVER VALLEY...INCREASING TO NEAR A HALF INCH AROUND KPWM TO JACKMAN...AND FINALLY 0.75 INCHES NEAR KRKD. EXAMINING TEMP PROFILES OF THE VARIOUS MODELS DOES GIVE SUPPORT TO A WIDESPREAD CHUNK OF THE FORECAST AREA SEEING THE FIRST ACCUMULATING SNFL OF THE SEASON. THE RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRES AND LEAD S/WV HEADING OUT TO SEA WILL HELP TO MITIGATE WAA BRINGING IN ABOVE FREEZING AIR ALOFT. MODEL FORECASTS DO WARM SOME ALOFT...BUT AS 925 MB TEMPS FALL TO NEAR -4 C ALONG THE COAST...THAT SHOULD STAY ALL OR MOSTLY SNOW...ESPECIALLY HEADING INTO SAT NIGHT AND SUN. BASED ON THAT FORECAST ALOFT AND EXPECTED HOURLY TEMPS...THE GRIDS REFLECT 3-5 INCHES OF SNFL POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL ME AND ESPECIALLY THE MIDCOAST. CLOSER TO KPWM LESS THAN AN INCH IS POSSIBLE...WITH A DUSTING TO JUST A FEW FLAKES ELSEWHERE. ALSO OF NOTE ARE THE WIND PROFILES FROM THE VARIOUS FORECAST MODELS. ATTM THE GFS AND CMC ARE THE MOST BULLISH GUIDANCE. BASED ON THE WIND ALOFT AND FORECAST MIXED LAYER...GUSTS GREATER THAN 40 KTS WOULD BE POSSIBLE. OVER THE OUTER WATERS EVEN STRONGER GUSTS IN THE 50-60 KT RANGE WOULD BE POSSIBLE. THE ECMWF IS TEMPERED SLIGHTLY...WITH OVERLAND GUSTS MORE IN THE 35-40 KT RANGE. GIVEN THE DIFFICULTY IN REACHING HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA IN MOST EVENTS THE ECMWF WAS WEIGHTED SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN THE BLEND. EVEN SO THE FORECAST REFLECTS 35-45 MPH GUSTS ALONG THE COAST...WITH NEAR STORM FORCE OVER THE WATERS. THE MAIN POINT IS THAT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM TO AFFECT AT LEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL ROOM FOR THE FORECAST TO CHANGE IN EITHER DIRECTION...INCLUDING FARTHER OUT TO SEA AND LESS PCPN. BEYOND THE WEEKEND...A MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WAS THE PREFERRED FORECAST METHOD. HIGH PRES AND RIDING ALOFT GENERALLY IN CONTROL THRU MIDWEEK. TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND NICELY FROM THE COLDER THAN NORMAL WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PCPN WILL BE THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. && .AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... SHORT TERM...STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT ONCE A COLD FRONT PASSES THRU AROUND 00Z. COULD SEE SOME FOG ADVECT IN FROM THE RIVER AT KLEB. VFR THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THU NIGHT. LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS START THE PERIOD FRI. LOW PRES GATHERS STRENGTH S OF THE AREA ON SAT...WITH CLOUDS SPREADING NWD. MVFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR CIGS/VSBYS MOVE INTO THE AREA. SNFL IS POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA LATE SAT INTO SUN. ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR UNLIKELY OUTSIDE OF CENTRAL ME...BUT IFR VSBYS WOULD BE POSSIBLE IN ANY SNOW. GRADUALLY IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE SUN THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...ALTHOUGH WILL SEE A BRIEF SURGE IN W-NW WINDS OVERNIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT...WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BLO SCA LVLS THRU THU NIGHT. LONG TERM...A DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM IS GOING TO GATHER STRENGTH INTO THE WEEKEND. ATTM A SEASONABLY STRONG LOW PRES IS FORECAST TO PASS THRU OR NEAR THE GULF OF ME. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY ATTM...BUT GALES APPEAR LIKELY WITH STORM FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE. SEAS WILL ALSO CLIMB TO NEAR 20 FT IN THIS SCENARIO. WINDS AND SEAS THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRES TAKES CONTROL OF THE WATERS. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM UPDATE...MLE LONG TERM...LEGRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
620 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A SECOND COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT WITH SOME SHOWERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER THEN SETS UP FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION. A COASTAL STORM WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE REGION BY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... 620 PM UPDATE...SHOWERS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ARE LIFTING NE ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS FOR THE MOST PART LIGHT WITH QPF AMOUNTS OF LESS THAN 0.10" DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND MOSTLY CONFINED TO PARTS OF PISCATAQUIS...PENOBSCOT...AND SOUTHERN AROOSTOOK COUNTIES. AREAS OF FOG MAINLY ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE...WITH THE STRATUS DECK ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE GROUND AT FRENCHVILLE. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE ONGOING FORECAST BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND OBSERVATIONS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... A SECOND COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT W/ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS. FOG STILL HOLDING ON ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY FROM CARIBOU NORTHWARD AND ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN W/THE WARM AIR ALOFT OVER THE COOLER AIR IN THE BLYR. FURTHER S, JUST PATCHY FOG ATTM. RADAR SHOWED A LINE OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE BOUNDARY. THE NAM12 AND RAP WERE DOING WELL W/PLACEMENT OF THE SHOWERS AND DECIDED TO FOLLOW THIS BLEND INTO THE EVENING W/THE SECOND PUSH OF SHOWERS. THE RAIN WILL PUSH OFFSHORE BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO NO MORE THAN 0.25" AND THIS WILL BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST SECTIONS. THE BLYR WILL MIX OUT LATER TONIGHT AS A WNW FLOW SETS UP BEHIND THE FRONT W/SOME PARTIAL CLEARING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST. BEFORE THEN, FOG COULD SET UP FOR A WHILE AND BECOME DENSE BEFORE THE BLYR MIXES OUT. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED BY THE EVENING CREW. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FRONT IS NOT THAT COLD, SO THE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL NOT DROP TOO FAR BELOW 40 ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MAINE, WHILE SOUTH/DOWNEAST WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S. TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE NORMAL RANGE AS COOLER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION. STILL SOME PRETTY GOOD RH FROM 925-850MBS ON THURSDAY TO ALLOW FOR CLOUDS DURING THE DAY LIMITING THE SUNSHINE ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST. DOWNSLOPE WILL AID IN MORE SUN FOR THE DOWNEAST AND COAST. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... A RIDGE AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD IN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS FILTERING IN COOLER AIR. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES DOWNEAST WITH SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH STREAMING NORTH AND EAST AHEAD OF DEVELOPING WAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. EXPECT LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S ACROSS THE NORTH TO THE MID AND UPPER 30S DOWNEAST. FRIDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE QUIET AS A COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM BEGINS TO ORGANIZE OFF TO THE SOUTH. SKIES LOOK TO BE MAINLY CLOUDY IN THE NORTH WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS DOWNEAST. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S NORTH TO THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 DOWNEAST. THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE COMPLEX FOR FRIDAY NIGHT HEADING INTO SATURDAY. A STRONG 500 MB SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTH AND EAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE CAROLINA COAST DURING THIS TIME WITH LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE DEVELOPING OFF THE EAST COAST. FORECAST MODELS ARE STILL STRUGGLING WITH THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM IN TERMS OF TRACK AND TIMING OF THE PRECIP ONSET. EXPECT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP FROM SOUTH TO NORTH EITHER LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. IF THIS PRECIP COMES IN EARLY ENOUGH, IT MAY FALL AS A LITTLE SNOW AWAY FROM THE COAST BEFORE GOING TO RAIN SATURDAY AS TEMPERATURES MODERATE. AS THE LOW DRAWS CLOSER, PRECIP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF BECOMING HEAVIER AND STEADIER BY LATE DAY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT OVER EASTERN AREAS DEPENDING ON THE LOW`S TRACK... && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES SATURDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE NORTHEAST TO NOVA SCOTIA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY BASE ON OPERATIONAL GFS AND MOST GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. OPERATIONAL ECMWF BRINGS THIS SYSTEM CLOSER TO THE MAINE COAST. STILL TO SOON TO MAKE CALL ON EXACT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. EXPECT STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW AND COLDER AIR MASS MONDAY AS INTENSIFING LOW MOVES TO THE NORTH. RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE STATE TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST WEDESDAY. && .AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE INTO THE EVENING W/THE THE NORTHERN TERMINALS HOLDING ON TO IFR WHILE KBGR AND KBHB WILL SEE CONDITIONS GO TO MVFR. MVFR CONDITION EXPECTED TO GO TO VFR LATER TONIGHT OR MORE LIKELY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS WNW WINDS TAKE HOLD. VFR FOR KBGR AND BHB ON THURSDAY WHILE THE NORTHERN TERMINALS COULD SEE TEMPO MVFR ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE DAY. SHORT TO LONG TERM: MAINLY VFR FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO AT LEAST MVFR ARE LIKELY SATURDAY AS RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX MOVES IN....IFR CONDITIONS ALSO EXPECTED SUNDAY. VFR CODNITIONS MONDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. WIND GUSTS COULD HIT 20 KTS LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY ON THE BACKSIDE ON THE FRONT AND COOLER AIR MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS. SEAS WILL REMAIN 3-4 FT INTO THURSDAY. SHORT TO LONG TERM: NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. AS A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS AND MOVES NORTH SATURDAY WINDS AND WAVES WILL INCREASE WITH HIGH END SCA TO EVEN GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY LATE SATURDAY. HOWEVER IT SHOULD BE NOTED THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE STORM WHICH WILL DETERMINE THE MAGNITUDE OF THE WINDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS REACHED... && .CLIMATE...CHECK OUT THE LATEST PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT ON HALLOWEEN WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE YEARS AT CARIBOU AND BANGOR. THE STATEMENT IS AVAILABLE AT NOUS41 KCAR OR AT PWMPNSCAR. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...CB/HEWITT SHORT TERM...FITZSIMMONS LONG TERM...MIGNONE AVIATION...CB/HEWITT/FITZSIMMONS MARINE...CB/HEWITT/FITZSIMMONS CLIMATE...CB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
314 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A SECOND COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT WITH SOME SHOWERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER THEN SETS UP FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION. A COASTAL STORM WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE REGION BY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... A SECOND COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT W/ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS. FOG STILL HOLDING ON ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY FROM CARIBOU NORTHWARD AND ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN W/THE WARM AIR ALOFT OVER THE COOLER AIR IN THE BLYR. FURTHER S, JUST PATCHY FOG ATTM. RADAR SHOWED A LINE OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE BOUNDARY. THE NAM12 AND RAP WERE DOING WELL W/PLACEMENT OF THE SHOWERS AND DECIDED TO FOLLOW THIS BLEND INTO THE EVENING W/THE SECOND PUSH OF SHOWERS. THE RAIN WILL PUSH OFFSHORE BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO NO MORE THAN 0.25" AND THIS WILL BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST SECTIONS. THE BLYR WILL MIX OUT LATER TONIGHT AS A WNW FLOW SETS UP BEHIND THE FRONT W/SOME PARTIAL CLEARING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST. BEFORE THEN, FOG COULD SET UP FOR A WHILE AND BECOME DENSE BEFORE THE BLYR MIXES OUT. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED BY THE EVENING CREW. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FRONT IS NOT THAT COLD, SO THE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL NOT DROP TOO FAR BELOW 40 ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MAINE, WHILE SOUTH/DOWNEAST WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S. TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE NORMAL RANGE AS COOLER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION. STILL SOME PRETTY GOOD RH FROM 925-850MBS ON THURSDAY TO ALLOW FOR CLOUDS DURING THE DAY LIMITING THE SUNSHINE ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST. DOWNSLOPE WILL AID IN MORE SUN FOR THE DOWNEAST AND COAST. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... A RIDGE AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD IN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS FILTERING IN COOLER AIR. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES DOWNEAST WITH SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH STREAMING NORTH AND EAST AHEAD OF DEVELOPING WAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. EXPECT LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S ACROSS THE NORTH TO THE MID AND UPPER 30S DOWNEAST. FRIDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE QUIET AS A COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM BEGINS TO ORGANIZE OFF TO THE SOUTH. SKIES LOOK TO BE MAINLY CLOUDY IN THE NORTH WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS DOWNEAST. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S NORTH TO THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 DOWNEAST. THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE COMPLEX FOR FRIDAY NIGHT HEADING INTO SATURDAY. A STRONG 500 MB SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTH AND EAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE CAROLINA COAST DURING THIS TIME WITH LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE DEVELOPING OFF THE EAST COAST. FORECAST MODELS ARE STILL STRUGGLING WITH THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM IN TERMS OF TRACK AND TIMING OF THE PRECIP ONSET. EXPECT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP FROM SOUTH TO NORTH EITHER LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. IF THIS PRECIP COMES IN EARLY ENOUGH, IT MAY FALL AS A LITTLE SNOW AWAY FROM THE COAST BEFORE GOING TO RAIN SATURDAY AS TEMPERATURES MODERATE. AS THE LOW DRAWS CLOSER, PRECIP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF BECOMING HEAVIER AND STEADIER BY LATE DAY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT OVER EASTERN AREAS DEPENDING ON THE LOW`S TRACK... && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES SATURDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE NORTHEAST TO NOVA SCOTIA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY BASE ON OPERATIONAL GFS AND MOST GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. OPERATIONAL ECMWF BRINGS THIS SYSTEM CLOSER TO THE MAINE COAST. STILL TO SOON TO MAKE CALL ON EXACT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. EXPECT STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW AND COLDER AIR MASS MONDAY AS INTENSIFING LOW MOVES TO THE NORTH. RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE STATE TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST WEDESDAY. && .AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE INTO THE EVENING W/THE THE NORTHERN TERMINALS HOLDING ON TO IFR WHILE KBGR AND KBHB WILL SEE CONDITIONS GO TO MVFR. MVFR CONDITION EXPECTED TO GO TO VFR LATER TONIGHT OR MORE LIKELY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS WNW WINDS TAKE HOLD. VFR FOR KBGR AND BHB ON THURSDAY WHILE THE NORTHERN TERMINALS COULD SEE TEMPO MVFR ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE DAY. SHORT TO LONG TERM: MAINLY VFR FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO AT LEAST MVFR ARE LIKELY SATURDAY AS RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX MOVES IN....IFR CONDITIONS ALSO EXPECTED SUNDAY. VFR CODNITIONS MONDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. WIND GUSTS COULD HIT 20 KTS LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY ON THE BACKSIDE ON THE FRONT AND COOLER AIR MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS. SEAS WILL REMAIN 3-4 FT INTO THURSDAY. SHORT TO LONG TERM: NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. AS A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS AND MOVES NORTH SATURDAY WINDS AND WAVES WILL INCREASE WITH HIGH END SCA TO EVEN GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY LATE SATURDAY. HOWEVER IT SHOULD BE NOTED THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE STORM WHICH WILL DETERMINE THE MAGNITUDE OF THE WINDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS REACHED... && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...HEWITT SHORT TERM...FITZSIMMONS LONG TERM...MIGNONE AVIATION...HEWITT/FITZSIMMONS MARINE...HEWITT/FITZSIMMONS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
308 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014 STRATUS HAS BEEN VERY HESITANT TO BUDGE TODAY AS MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW HAS BEEN SLOW TO GIVE WAY TO A SFC RIDGE THAT WAS SLOWLY WORKING ACROSS WRN MN. THIS HAS KEPT MUCH OF CENTRAL MN IN THE UPPER 30S TODAY...WHICH IS A GOOD 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM IS ALREADY SCREAMING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TODAY. HAVE NOT CHANGED MUCH WITH THE FORECAST TO WHAT WE HAD IN LAST NIGHT AS TIMING STILL LOOKS GOOD...AND REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS CERTAINLY DO NOT INSTILL MUCH CONFIDENCE IN GOING WITH ANYTHING HIGHER THAN A 40 POP TONIGHT. STILL THE BIG ISSUE FOR PRECIP TONIGHT IS THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR THAT IS MOVING IN AHEAD OF THIS WAVE...AS SEEN IN THE 29.12 SOUNDING FROM ABERDEEN THIS MORNING. MOST HI-RES AND DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT SHOW SOME LIGHT PRECIP MOVING INTO WRN MN BETWEEN 3Z AND 6Z TONIGHT...BUT FALLING APART AS IT MOVES EAST AS THE PRIMARY PV ANOMALY WITH THIS WAVE DIVES SOUTH INTO IOWA. WHAT THIS WAVE WILL DO IS SPREAD PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER BETWEEN 6K AND 10K FEET BACK ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THAT COMBINED WITH LIGHT SRLY WINDS OUT AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW/TROUGH WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURE DROPS TONIGHT TO BASICALLY LESS THAN 10 DEGREES FROM TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY OUT THERE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS MEANS WE WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO MIX A FEW SNOWFLAKES IN WITH ANY RAIN THAT CAN MAKE TO THE GROUND NORTH OF I-94 TONIGHT...BUT WITH MINIMAL QPF EXPECTED...WE WILL NOT SEE ANY ACCUMULATIONS EITHER. FOR TOMORROW...THE WARMEST CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE MORNING...AS THE AFTERNOON WILL BE MARKED BY THE DEVELOPMENT OF BREEZY NW WINDS AND CAA. THOUGH THE STRONGEST CAA LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. STILL...THE CAA COMBINED WITH ANOTHER BATCH OF STRATUS WILL HELP HOLD TEMPERATURES STEADY OR EVEN ALLOW THEM TO DROP A DEGREES OR TWO DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL AND WRN MN. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014 LONG RANGE TRENDS CONTINUE ON A COLD NOTE IN THE WAKE OF THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. COULD SEE A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER A PORTION OF THE WISCONSIN CWA INTO OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES/CRITICAL THICKNESS VALUES DROP OFF. THE COLD SURFACE HIGH FOLLOWS WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WITH FRIDAY LOOKING TO BE THE COLDEST FOR THE NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE CWA. SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP SATURDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA. SOME GUSTS OVER 30 MPH OVER THIS REGION OF THE STATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN UP INTO THE NIGHT AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT/SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE DAKOTAS INTO SUNDAY. WARMER AIR WILL MOVE OUT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WITH SOME 50S EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH THE 12Z ECMWF PARTIALLY SPLIT AND TAKING MUCH OF THE MOISTURE SOUTH AND EAST. WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS BOTH MODELS SUGGEST A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH. DOESNT APPEAR TO BE SIGNIFICANT AT THE MOMENT...BUT ENOUGH COLD MAY MAY WORK IN FOR A CHANCE OF MIXED/CHANGE OVER TO SOME WET SNOW...MAINLY INTO WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN MONDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR LONG TERM MODEL TRENDS ON THE OVERALL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014 STRATUS HAS BEEN STUBBORN TO DEPART WITH MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW STILL IN PLACE. HOWEVER...AS THE RIDGE AXIS STARTS TO NUDGE EAST ACROSS SW MN...WE HAVE STARTED TO SEE THE WRN EDGE OF THE CLOUDS SHIELD BREAKUP OVER THE LAST HOUR. THE HRRR HAS HAD A GOOD HANDEL ON THE CLOUDS THIS MORNING...SO FOLLOWED IT TO TREND IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR FROM SW TO NE THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS OVER THE LAST HOUR...THE HRRR...ALONG WITH THESE TAFS ARE TOO SLOW IN CLEARING OUT THESE CLOUDS IF ANYTHING. NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT US IS ALREADY DIVING SE INTO NW NODAK. NAM AND HI-RES MODELS SHOW SHOWERS PUSHING INTO WRN MN...BUT DRYING UP PRETTY QUICK AFTER THAT...SO REMOVED VCSH MENTION FROM ALL BUT AXN. WINDS WILL BE PRETTY LIGHT OVERNIGHT AS THE SFC LOW WORKS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH BLUSTERY NW WINDS DEVELOPING THU MORNING OUT WEST IN ITS WAKE. BESIDE THE RETURN OF NW WINDS...THE NAM/GFS/SREF ALL SHOW A BAND OF MVFR CIGS WORKING IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM AS WELL...THOUGH WE SHOULD NOT SEE MVFR CIGS ARRIVE IN CENTRAL MN UNTIL LATE THU MORNING. KMSP...IF ANYTHING...IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY BE TOO LATE IN THE TAF...THOUGH STILL DO NOT EXPECT THAT TO HAPPEN UNTIL 20Z AT THE EARLIEST. WE MAY SEE A SPRINKLE OR TWO IN THE MORNING AS THE SFC LOW WORKS ACROSS THE FIELD...THOUGH COVERAGE LOOKS PRETTY SPARSE...SO WENT WITH THE DRY TAF. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN MVFR CIGS RETURNING ABOUT 24 HOURS FROM NOW. WE WILL LIKELY SEE THEM CLEAR OUT BEFORE THE END OF THE TAF...ALONG WITH NW WINDS BECOMING STRONGER AND GUSTING...BUT THIS FAR OUT...DID NOT GET TOO QUITE WITH HOURS 27-30 OF THE TAF. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ FRI...VFR. WINDS N 10-15 KTS. SAT...VFR. WINDS SE 10-15 KTS. SUN...VFR. WINDS SSE 10-15 KTS. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...NONE. WI...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...MPG LONG TERM...DWE AVIATION...MPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1254 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 241 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014 MAIN CONCERN IS TEMPS TODAY AS ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER/LATE OCTOBER SUN ANGLE MAY HOLD BACK TEMPS FROM RISING TOO MUCH UNTIL MID/LATE AFTN. CAA WILL REMAIN FOR MOST OF THE MORNING...SO TEMPS MAY ACTUALLY HOLD OR FALL A DEGREE OR TWO BEFORE STARTING TO RISE BY LATE MORNING. LOW TO MID 40S SEEM REASONABLE BASED ON THE ANTICIPATED CLOUDS HOLDING ON...AND TEMPS STILL IN THE 30S. A FAST MOVING SHRTWV THAT WAS NOTED ACROSS NORTHERN WASHINGTON STATE EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT WITH A CHC OF RAIN/SNOW. INITIALLY...DRY AIR MASS WILL CONTROL THE WEATHER DURING THE LATE AFTN/EVENING TIME FRAME. THIS INITIAL DRY AIR MASS MAY ACTUALLY HELP WITH A MIXTURE OF SNOW/RAIN BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL RAIN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. MAX WET BULB TEMPS /1 KM LAYER/ DURING THE EVENING ACROSS EASTERN MN/WESTERN WI ARE COOL ENOUGH THAT IF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS EARLIER...THE MAIN TYPE COULD BE SNOW. HOWEVER...THIS WILL QUICKLY CHANGE BACK TO RAIN AS THE THERMAL PROFILE WARMS AS THE SHRTWV QUICKLY MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. WRF MODELS SIMULATED PRECIPITATION TYPE DOES HAVE A SIMILAR SCENARIO WITH SOME MIXTURE OF RAIN/SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL/EC MN/WC WI DURING THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION. ALTHOUGH PRECIPITATION IS VERY LIKELY ACROSS MPX CWA LATE TONIGHT...INITIAL DRY MASS MAY PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT AMTS. A GENERAL FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF LIQUID WATER IS POSSIBLE WITH MOSTLY TRACE AMTS ACROSS MPX CWA. WILL CONTINUE 20/30/40% POPS AS MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL BE LOW. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 241 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014 A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND HIGHLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN TAKES SHAPE IN THE EXTENDED. THIS WILL LEAD TO A COUPLE PROTOTYPICAL FALL TEMPERATURE SWINGS AND AT LEAST A COUPLE BLUSTERY DAYS. OVERALL...STILL A DRY PATTERN WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR PRECIP UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK AND EVEN THAT DOESN`T LOOK OVERLY IMPRESSIVE FOR RAIN. THE PRECIP EVENT MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION WILL QUICKLY MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY MORNING. THERE IS REALLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT AMONGST THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF IN THE RAPID BUILDING OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. THIS HIGH WILL QUICKLY DROP SOUTH INTO THE DAKOTAS THURSDAY NIGHT AND BRING AN IMPRESSIVE SURGE OF COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS WITH IT. MOMENTUM TRANSFER APPROXIMATIONS FROM THE NAM/GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PEAK WIND GUSTS UP NEAR 30-35KTS IN WESTERN MN AND 25-30KTS ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. THE AIR MASS THAT ARRIVES ON FRIDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST OF THE SEASON THUS FAR WITH MOST OF THE GUIDANCE FORECASTING 850MB TEMPS BETWEEN -7C AND -11C BY FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THE LAST COLD OUTBREAK OCCURRED DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF OCTOBER WHEN MANY LOCATIONS SAW 40S FOR HIGHS...THAT WAS WITH 850MB TEMPS OF ABOUT -4C. IN ADDITION TO THE COLDER AIR MASS...WE ARE NOW APPROACHING NOVEMBER AND HAVE LOST BETWEEN 60-90 MINUTES OF DAYLIGHT SINCE THAT EARLY OCTOBER COLD SNAP...NOT TO MENTION WE ALSO HAVE A LOWER SUN ANGLE. A LOT OF THE FORECAST AREA MIGHT NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 30S FOR HIGHS ON FRIDAY...WHICH WOULD MAKE IT THE COLDEST HALLOWEEN SINCE 2006 WHEN THERE WAS A HIGH OF 36 IN THE TWIN CITIES...A HIGH OF 33 IN ST. CLOUD...AND 38 IN EAU CLAIRE. A BLUSTERY NORTH FLOW WILL DROP WIND CHILLS INTO THE 20S DURING FRIDAY EVENING. THE WEEKEND WILL BRING WARMER TEMPS THAN FRIDAY BUT STILL REMAIN COOL OVERALL. THE COLDEST AIR WILL SLIDE EAST BY FRIDAY NIGHT. MN/WI WILL FIND ITSELF UNDER TRANSIENT RIDGING THIS WEEKEND IN BETWEEN A DEEP TROUGH OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST AND AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE ROCKIES. THIS TROUGH BREAKS OFF A CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA AND SWINGS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MODEL TIMING AND LOCATION ON THIS TROUGH IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR A 150-HR FORECAST. THIS TROUGH IS THE REASON FOR THE CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK - DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE A MAJOR PRECIP EVENT AT THIS POINT. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014 STRATUS HAS BEEN STUBBORN TO DEPART WITH MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW STILL IN PLACE. HOWEVER...AS THE RIDGE AXIS STARTS TO NUDGE EAST ACROSS SW MN...WE HAVE STARTED TO SEE THE WRN EDGE OF THE CLOUDS SHIELD BREAKUP OVER THE LAST HOUR. THE HRRR HAS HAD A GOOD HANDEL ON THE CLOUDS THIS MORNING...SO FOLLOWED IT TO TREND IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR FROM SW TO NE THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS OVER THE LAST HOUR...THE HRRR...ALONG WITH THESE TAFS ARE TOO SLOW IN CLEARING OUT THESE CLOUDS IF ANYTHING. NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT US IS ALREADY DIVING SE INTO NW NODAK. NAM AND HI-RES MODELS SHOW SHOWERS PUSHING INTO WRN MN...BUT DRYING UP PRETTY QUICK AFTER THAT...SO REMOVED VCSH MENTION FROM ALL BUT AXN. WINDS WILL BE PRETTY LIGHT OVERNIGHT AS THE SFC LOW WORKS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH BLUSTERY NW WINDS DEVELOPING THU MORNING OUT WEST IN ITS WAKE. BESIDE THE RETURN OF NW WINDS...THE NAM/GFS/SREF ALL SHOW A BAND OF MVFR CIGS WORKING IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM AS WELL...THOUGH WE SHOULD NOT SEE MVFR CIGS ARRIVE IN CENTRAL MN UNTIL LATE THU MORNING. KMSP...IF ANYTHING...IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY BE TOO LATE IN THE TAF...THOUGH STILL DO NOT EXPECT THAT TO HAPPEN UNTIL 20Z AT THE EARLIEST. WE MAY SEE A SPRINKLE OR TWO IN THE MORNING AS THE SFC LOW WORKS ACROSS THE FIELD...THOUGH COVERAGE LOOKS PRETTY SPARSE...SO WENT WITH THE DRY TAF. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN MVFR CIGS RETURNING ABOUT 24 HOURS FROM NOW. WE WILL LIKELY SEE THEM CLEAR OUT BEFORE THE END OF THE TAF...ALONG WITH NW WINDS BECOMING STRONGER AND GUSTING...BUT THIS FAR OUT...DID NOT GET TOO QUITE WITH HOURS 27-30 OF THE TAF. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ FRI...VFR. WINDS N 10-15 KTS. SAT...VFR. WINDS SE 10-15 KTS. SUN...VFR. WINDS SSE 10-15 KTS. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...NONE. WI...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JLT LONG TERM...CLF AVIATION...MPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
659 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT, BRINGING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES. CLOUDS WILL LINGER EVEN THOUGH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM WEST OF HERE ON FRIDAY AND THEN TRACK WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AND THEN OFFSHORE THE EAST COAST OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN LATE FRIDAY WHICH CHANGES OVER TO A LITTLE BIT OF LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY, NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED, EXCEPT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. CHILLY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY. A WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... AS OF 650 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...RADAR TREND CONTINUE WITH RAINFALL EAST OF CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY. THERE WERE/ARE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NY BUT SATELLITE IMAGERY ALREADY SHOWS SOLID DECK MOVING INTO WESTERN NY AND PROGRESSING. BASICALLY...NO CHANGES TO ON-GOING FORECAST. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 330PM FOLLOWS: MID AFTERNOON UPDATE STILL GOING ON TRACK. JUST MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE NEXT FEW HOURS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS SHOWING LIGHT PRECIPITATION STILL FALLING ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN VERMONT AS THE FRONT EVER SO SLOWLY PUSHES EAST. THE FRONT IS BEST SEEN BY A DEW POINT DROP (UPPER 40S/LOW 50S TO THE UPPER 30S) ALONG WITH A WIND SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST AND WEST. ON THE TEMPERATURE FRONT FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS, SHADED TOWARD THE WARMER GUIDANCE BASED ON THE EXPECTATION THAT CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR, SO LOOK FOR LOTS OF 30S WITH A FEW LOWER 40S. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 130PM FOLLOWS: THE FORECAST STILL CONTINUES TO BE ON TRACK. THE SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN VERMONT ARE CONTINUING TO DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST WITH SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTING IT WILL END UP SLOWING DOWN EVEN FURTHER AND HANGING AROUND TILL EARLY THIS EVENING. SO THE ONLY REAL CHANGE TO THE POPS WAS TO CONTINUE ITS PROGRESSION ALONG BUT KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH THIS EVENING UNTIL AROUND 7PM. THE ONLY OTHER ADDITION TO THE POP FORECAST WAS TO INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK AS THE WINDS CONTINUE TO SHIFT AROUND THE END RESULT WILL BE PARALLEL FLOW TO THE GREAT LAKES WHICH COULD END UP IN SOME WEAK UPSLOPE SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE ADIRONDACKS OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN THAT ISN`T VERY STRONG BUT THE SIGNAL DOES SHOW UP IN THE HRRR AND SOME LOCAL HI-RES MODELS. THE NEXT CONCERN WAS WHETHER WE WOULD END UP CLEARING OUT BUT AS THE MOISTURE AXIS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST THE FLOW WILL END UP SHIFTING ENOUGH FROM THE WEST TO THE SOUTHWEST THAT THERE WILL BE SOME MOISTURE ADVECTION OFF THE GREAT LAKES RESULTING IN CONTINUED CLOUD COVER. EXPECT THAT TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING. I MADE SOME SLIGHT TWEAKS TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST BECAUSE AT THE THIS POINT WITH THE CLOUD COVER SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WERE INDICATING SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION HAD ALREADY BEGUN AND BOTH MT MANSFIELD AND WHITEFACE MT ARE RUNNING IN THE UPPER 30S LOW 40S RIGHT NOW. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 350 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER TOMORROW AS WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER STILL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WITH A LOW-MID LEVEL SOUTHWEST/WEST FLOW THAT SHOULD KEEP BRINGING IN MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THUS NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER. BEST CHANCES FOR MORE SUN WILL BE DOWN IN SOUTHEASTERN VERMONT WITH THE AID OF DOWNSLOPING OFF THE GREENS. KEPT WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES. WITH 925MB TEMPERATURES IN THE 1-3C RANGE, THE MAXIMUM WE COULD SEE WOULD BE THE LOW 50S. CLOUDS WILL PUT A DAMPER ON THAT, AND SO THE GUIDANCE SHOWING 40S TO NEAR 50 SEEMED GOOD. CAN`T RULE OUT A SPRINKLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN, BUT NOT ENOUGH TO PUT INTO THE FORECAST. THURSDAY NIGHT A LITTLE TRICKY ON THE CLOUDS AND HOW COLD IT COULD GET. AGAIN, THINKING MORE CLOUDS THAN CLEAR AND THIS WILL ACT AS A BLANKET. LEANED A LITTLE TOWARD WARMER GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF THAT. HOWEVER IF WE DO GET SOME CLEARING, IT WILL BE CHILLIER THAN I`M CURRENTLY PAINTING. GENERALLY HAVE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE REGION (SOME UPPER 30S CLOSE TO LAKE CHAMPLAIN). FRIDAY THINGS WILL BE CHANGING. THE CLOSELY WATCHED UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY AMPLIFYING AS ENERGY CURRENTLY UP OVER NORTHERN CANADA DIVES INTO THE TROUGH. MODEL TRENDS OF THE PAST FEW DAYS SHOWING THAT THE UPPER TROUGH (AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW) WILL BE DIGGING MORE SOUTH THAN EAST. THUS, LOOKS LIKE THE AREA WILL BE ON THE FRINGE OF ALL THE "EXCITEMENT". STILL CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THICKER CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON, MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER, HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S. HALLOWEEN EVENING AND TRICK OR TREATING TIME: GUIDANCE ALL PRETTY SIMILAR IN SHOWING THAT ALTHOUGH SOME PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD INTO VERMONT BY LATE NIGHT, IT WILL ALL BE ON THE VERY LIGHT SIDE. THE TRENDS OF HAVING THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE TAKE A TRACK FAAAAR SOUTH OF HERE MEAN THAT QPF WILL GENERALLY BE 0.05" OR LESS. AS THE NIGHT GOES ON, THE TEMPERATURES ALOFT DO SLOWLY COOL SUCH THAT FREEZING LEVELS WILL FALL AND BY LATE NIGHT IT SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH THAT A FEW SNOWFLAKES WILL BE SEEN INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. AGAIN, NOT A LOT OF STUFF FALLING FROM THE SKY. PERHAPS A SLUSHY 1/2" AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000FT, ESPECIALLY IN THE `DACKS COME SATURDAY MORNING. BOTTOM LINE, THE GHOULS AND GOBLINS SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET OUT AND AROUND WITHOUT TOO MUCH NEED OF UMBRELLAS -- AT LEAST IT LOOKS THAT WAY AT THIS POINT. WE`LL SEE HOW FUTURE MODEL RUNS TREND. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 402 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPS WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED SAT AND SUN AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST EAST OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK, THEN NORTH TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA. STILL COOL MONDAY BUT DRY UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW. TEMPS RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS A WARM THEN COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. CONFIDENCE INCREASING AS MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT AD CONTINUE TO SHOW DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP UPPER TROF WHICH CLOSES OFF. ALSO FAIR AGREEMENT WITH TRACK OF SFC LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SAT INTO SUNDAY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS OF HOW FAR NORTH AND WEST OF THE LOW THE PRECIPITATION WILL EXTEND AS THE LOW DEEPENS RAPIDLY OVER THE WARM WATERS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND CONVECTION DEVELOPS. THIS IS WHEN THE MODELS USUALLY HAVE THEIR PROBLEMS ESPECIALLY WITH HOW FAR WEST THE LOW WILL BE AND HOW MUCH MOISTURE IS THROWN BACK TOWARD NEW ENGLAND ESPECIALLY LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY. FOR NOW CONTINUING THE IDEA THAT THE OUR AREA WILL ONLY GET LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH MOST AREAS COLD ENOUGH TO SEE A SOME FLAKES ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE MOSTLY SNOW SHOWERS IS EXPECTED WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. IF THE LOW TRACKS A LITTLE FURTHER WEST, PERHAPS EASTERN VT MAY GET IN ON SOME LIGHT BUT STEADIER PRECIPITATION. WE ARE EXPECTING NORTHERLY WINDS TO INCREASE AND BE GUSTY ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. UPPER LEVEL TROF SLOWLY LIFTS OUT OF THE NE CONUS WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL BY TUES CONTINUING INTO WED AS A WARM THEN COLD FRONTS TRAVERSE THE AREA WITH WITH MAINLY A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S SAT AND MONDAY, 30S SUNDAY BUT RECOVERING BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S TUES/WED. LOWS GENERALLY 25 TO 35 BUT WARMING INTO THE 30S BY TUES/WED. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...GENERALLY LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND BETWEEN 02Z AND 12Z THERE MIGHT BE A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BUT VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY. IN ADDITION...CEILINGS WILL LOWER INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AT THIS TIME BEFORE BECOMING VFR AGAIN AFTER 12Z. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT...BUT THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z...BUT SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS. OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH STRATOCUMULUS AND LIGHT NW FLOW. FRI CLOUDS WL INCREASE AND LOWER BY FRIDAY NIGHT. PERIODS OF -SHRA WITH MTN -SHSN FRI NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH MVFR CIGS IN THE VALLEYS AND POTENTIAL IFR VIS/CIGS AT MPV/SLK. BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP SAT INTO SUNDAY WITH MAINLY MVFR ON MONDAY UNDER NW FLOW. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NASH NEAR TERM...NASH/SLW SHORT TERM...NASH LONG TERM...SISSON AVIATION...EVENSON/SISSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
653 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT, BRINGING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES. CLOUDS WILL LINGER EVEN THOUGH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM WEST OF HERE ON FRIDAY AND THEN TRACK WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AND THEN OFFSHORE THE EAST COAST OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN LATE FRIDAY WHICH CHANGES OVER TO A LITTLE BIT OF LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY, NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED, EXCEPT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. CHILLY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY. A WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... AS OF 650 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...RADAR TREND CONTINUE WITH RAINFALL EAST OF CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY. THERE WERE/ARE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NY BUT SATELLITE IMGERY ALREADY SHOWS SOLID DECK MOVING INTO WESTERN NY AND PROGRESSING. BASICALLY...NO CHANGES TO ON-GOING FORECAST. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 330PM FOLLOWS: MID AFTERNOON UPDATE STILL GOING ON TRACK. JUST MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE NEXT FEW HOURS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS SHOWING LIGHT PRECIPITATION STILL FALLING ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN VERMONT AS THE FRONT EVER SO SLOWLY PUSHES EAST. THE FRONT IS BEST SEEN BY A DEWPOINT DROP (UPPER 40S/LOW 50S TO THE UPPER 30S) ALONG WITH A WINDSHIFT TO SOUTHWEST AND WEST. ON THE TEMPERATURE FRONT FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS, SHADED TOWARD THE WARMER GUIDANCE BASED ON THE EXPECTATION THAT CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR, SO LOOK FOR LOTS OF 30S WITH A FEW LOWER 40S. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 130PM FOLLOWS: THE FORECAST STILL CONTINUES TO BE ON TRACK. THE SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN VERMONT ARE CONTINUING TO DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST WITH SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTING IT WILL END UP SLOWING DOWN EVEN FURTHER AND HANGING AROUND TILL EARLY THIS EVENING. SO THE ONLY REAL CHANGE TO THE POPS WAS TO CONTINUE ITS PROGRESSION ALONG BUT KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH THIS EVENING UNTIL AROUND 7PM. THE ONLY OTHER ADDITION TO THE POP FORECAST WAS TO INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK AS THE WINDS CONTINUE TO SHIFT AROUND THE END RESULT WILL BE PARALLEL FLOW TO THE GREAT LAKES WHICH COULD END UP IN SOME WEAK UPSLOPE SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE ADIRONDACKS OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN THAT ISN`T VERY STRONG BUT THE SIGNAL DOES SHOW UP IN THE HRRR AND SOME LOCAL HI-RES MODELS. THE NEXT CONCERN WAS WHETHER WE WOULD END UP CLEARING OUT BUT AS THE MOISTURE AXIS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST THE FLOW WILL END UP SHIFTING ENOUGH FROM THE WEST TO THE SOUTHWEST THAT THERE WILL BE SOME MOISTURE ADVECTION OFF THE GREAT LAKES RESULTING IN CONTINUED CLOUD COVER. EXPECT THAT TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING. I MADE SOME SLIGHT TWEAKS TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST BECAUSE AT THE THIS POINT WITH THE CLOUD COVER SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WERE INDICATING SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION HAD ALREADY BEGUN AND BOTH MT MANSFIELD AND WHITEFACE MT ARE RUNNING IN THE UPPER 30S LOW 40S RIGHT NOW. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 350 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER TOMORROW AS WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER STILL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WITH A LOW-MID LEVEL SOUTHWEST/WEST FLOW THAT SHOULD KEEP BRINGING IN MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THUS NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER. BEST CHANCES FOR MORE SUN WILL BE DOWN IN SOUTHEASTERN VERMONT WITH THE AID OF DOWNSLOPING OFF THE GREENS. KEPT WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES. WITH 925MB TEMPERATURES IN THE 1-3C RANGE, THE MAXIMUM WE COULD SEE WOULD BE THE LOW 50S. CLOUDS WILL PUT A DAMPER ON THAT, AND SO THE GUIDANCE SHOWING 40S TO NEAR 50 SEEMED GOOD. CAN`T RULE OUT A SPRINKLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN, BUT NOT ENOUGH TO PUT INTO THE FORECAST. THURSDAY NIGHT A LITTLE TRICKY ON THE CLOUDS AND HOW COLD IT COULD GET. AGAIN, THINKING MORE CLOUDS THAN CLEAR AND THIS WILL ACT AS A BLANKET. LEANED A LITTLE TOWARD WARMER GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF THAT. HOWEVER IF WE DO GET SOME CLEARING, IT WILL BE CHILLIER THAN I`M CURRENTLY PAINTING. GENERALLY HAVE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE REGION (SOME UPPER 30S CLOSE TO LAKE CHAMPLAIN). FRIDAY THINGS WILL BE CHANGING. THE CLOSELY WATCHED UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY AMPLIFYING AS ENERGY CURRENTLY UP OVER NORTHERN CANADA DIVES INTO THE TROUGH. MODEL TRENDS OF THE PAST FEW DAYS SHOWING THAT THE UPPER TROUGH (AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW) WILL BE DIGGING MORE SOUTH THAN EAST. THUS, LOOKS LIKE THE AREA WILL BE ON THE FRINGE OF ALL THE "EXCITEMENT". STILL CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THICKER CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON, MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER, HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S. HALLOWEEN EVENING AND TRICK OR TREATING TIME: GUIDANCE ALL PRETTY SIMILAR IN SHOWING THAT ALTHOUGH SOME PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD INTO VERMONT BY LATE NIGHT, IT WILL ALL BE ON THE VERY LIGHT SIDE. THE TRENDS OF HAVING THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE TAKE A TRACK FAAAAR SOUTH OF HERE MEAN THAT QPF WILL GENERALLY BE 0.05" OR LESS. AS THE NIGHT GOES ON, THE TEMPERATURES ALOFT DO SLOWLY COOL SUCH THAT FREEZING LEVELS WILL FALL AND BY LATE NIGHT IT SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH THAT A FEW SNOWFLAKES WILL BE SEEN INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. AGAIN, NOT A LOT OF STUFF FALLING FROM THE SKY. PERHAPS A SLUSHY 1/2" AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000FT, ESPECIALLY IN THE `DACKS COME SATURDAY MORNING. BOTTOM LINE, THE GHOULS AND GOBLINS SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET OUT AND AROUND WITHOUT TOO MUCH NEED OF UMBRELLAS -- AT LEAST IT LOOKS THAT WAY AT THIS POINT. WE`LL SEE HOW FUTURE MODEL RUNS TREND. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 402 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPS WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED SAT AND SUN AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST EAST OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK, THEN NORTH TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA. STILL COOL MONDAY BUT DRY UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW. TEMPS RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS A WARM THEN COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. CONFIDENCE INCREASING AS MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT AD CONTINUE TO SHOW DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP UPPER TROF WHICH CLOSES OFF. ALSO FAIR AGREEMENT WITH TRACK OF SFC LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SAT INTO SUNDAY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS OF HOW FAR NORTH AND WEST OF THE LOW THE PRECIPITATION WILL EXTEND AS THE LOW DEEPENS RAPIDLY OVER THE WARM WATERS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND CONVECTION DEVELOPS. THIS IS WHEN THE MODELS USUALLY HAVE THEIR PROBLEMS ESPECIALLY WITH HOW FAR WEST THE LOW WILL BE AND HOW MUCH MOISTURE IS THROWN BACK TOWARD NEW ENGLAND ESPECIALLY LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY. FOR NOW CONTINUING THE IDEA THAT THE OUR AREA WILL ONLY GET LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH MOST AREAS COLD ENOUGH TO SEE A SOME FLAKES ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE MOSTLY SNOW SHOWERS IS EXPECTED WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. IF THE LOW TRACKS A LITTLE FURTHER WEST, PERHAPS EASTERN VT MAY GET IN ON SOME LIGHT BUT STEADIER PRECIPITATION. WE ARE EXPECTING NORTHERLY WINDS TO INCREASE AND BE GUSTY ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. UPPER LEVEL TROF SLOWLY LIFTS OUT OF THE NE CONUS WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL BY TUES CONTINUING INTO WED AS A WARM THEN COLD FRONTS TRAVERSE THE AREA WITH WITH MAINLY A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S SAT AND MONDAY, 30S SUNDAY BUT RECOVERING BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S TUES/WED. LOWS GENERALLY 25 TO 35 BUT WARMING INTO THE 30S BY TUES/WED. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR, HOWEVER LCL MVFR CIGS AT KSLK. A WEAK TROF/COLD FRONT SURFACE AND ALOFT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION BETWEEN 06-12Z AND COULD BRING A SHOWER AT KSLK AROUND 06Z BUT LEFT OUT DUE TO A PROBABILITY OF ABOUT 30% OF MEASURABLE PRECIP. CONSIDERABLE STRATOCUMULUS EXPECTED WITH COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE TROF TOMORROW. SW/W WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS GUST TO 25 KNOTS THOUGH 21Z ESPECIALLY KMSS/KSLK. WINDS GRADUALLY BECOME NW 5 TO 10 KTS TOMORROW. OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY... THU...MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH STRATOCUMULUS AND LIGHT NW FLOW. FRI CLOUDS WL INCREASE AND LOWER BY FRIDAY NIGHT. PERIODS OF -SHRA WITH MTN -SHSN FRI NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH MVFR CIGS IN THE VALLEYS AND POTENTIAL IFR VIS/CIGS AT MPV/SLK. BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP SAT INTO SUNDAY WITH MAINLY MVFR ON MONDAY UNDER NW FLOW. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NASH NEAR TERM...NASH/SLW SHORT TERM...NASH LONG TERM...SISSON AVIATION...SISSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
403 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT, BRINGING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES. CLOUDS WILL LINGER EVEN THOUGH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM WEST OF HERE ON FRIDAY AND THEN TRACK WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AND THEN OFFSHORE THE EAST COAST OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN LATE FRIDAY WHICH CHANGES OVER TO A LITTLE BIT OF LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY, NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED, EXCEPT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. CHILLY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY. A WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... AS OF 350 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...MID AFTERNOON UPDATE STILL GOING ON TRACK. JUST MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE NEXT FEW HOURS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS SHOWING LIGHT PRECIPITATION STILL FALLING ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN VERMONT AS THE FRONT EVER SO SLOWLY PUSHES EAST. THE FRONT IS BEST SEEN BY A DEWPOINT DROP (UPPER 40S/LOW 50S TO THE UPPER 30S) ALONG WITH A WINDSHIFT TO SOUTHWEST AND WEST. ON THE TEMPERATURE FRONT FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS, SHADED TOWARD THE WARMER GUIDANCE BASED ON THE EXPECTATION THAT CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR, SO LOOK FOR LOTS OF 30S WITH A FEW LOWER 40S. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 130PM FOLLOWS: THE FORECAST STILL CONTINUES TO BE ON TRACK. THE SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN VERMONT ARE CONTINUING TO DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST WITH SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTING IT WILL END UP SLOWING DOWN EVEN FURTHER AND HANGING AROUND TILL EARLY THIS EVENING. SO THE ONLY REAL CHANGE TO THE POPS WAS TO CONTINUE ITS PROGRESSION ALONG BUT KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH THIS EVENING UNTIL AROUND 7PM. THE ONLY OTHER ADDITION TO THE POP FORECAST WAS TO INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK AS THE WINDS CONTINUE TO SHIFT AROUND THE END RESULT WILL BE PARALLEL FLOW TO THE GREAT LAKES WHICH COULD END UP IN SOME WEAK UPSLOPE SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE ADIRONDACKS OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN THAT ISN`T VERY STRONG BUT THE SIGNAL DOES SHOW UP IN THE HRRR AND SOME LOCAL HI-RES MODELS. THE NEXT CONCERN WAS WHETHER WE WOULD END UP CLEARING OUT BUT AS THE MOISTURE AXIS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST THE FLOW WILL END UP SHIFTING ENOUGH FROM THE WEST TO THE SOUTHWEST THAT THERE WILL BE SOME MOISTURE ADVECTION OFF THE GREAT LAKES RESULTING IN CONTINUED CLOUD COVER. EXPECT THAT TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING. I MADE SOME SLIGHT TWEAKS TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST BECAUSE AT THE THIS POINT WITH THE CLOUD COVER SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WERE INDICATING SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION HAD ALREADY BEGUN AND BOTH MT MANSFIELD AND WHITEFACE MT ARE RUNNING IN THE UPPER 30S LOW 40S RIGHT NOW. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 350 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER TOMORROW AS WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER STILL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WITH A LOW-MID LEVEL SOUTHWEST/WEST FLOW THAT SHOULD KEEP BRINGING IN MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THUS NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER. BEST CHANCES FOR MORE SUN WILL BE DOWN IN SOUTHEASTERN VERMONT WITH THE AID OF DOWNSLOPING OFF THE GREENS. KEPT WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES. WITH 925MB TEMPERATURES IN THE 1-3C RANGE, THE MAXIMUM WE COULD SEE WOULD BE THE LOW 50S. CLOUDS WILL PUT A DAMPER ON THAT, AND SO THE GUIDANCE SHOWING 40S TO NEAR 50 SEEMED GOOD. CAN`T RULE OUT A SPRINKLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN, BUT NOT ENOUGH TO PUT INTO THE FORECAST. THURSDAY NIGHT A LITTLE TRICKY ON THE CLOUDS AND HOW COLD IT COULD GET. AGAIN, THINKING MORE CLOUDS THAN CLEAR AND THIS WILL ACT AS A BLANKET. LEANED A LITTLE TOWARD WARMER GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF THAT. HOWEVER IF WE DO GET SOME CLEARING, IT WILL BE CHILLIER THAN I`M CURRENTLY PAINTING. GENERALLY HAVE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE REGION (SOME UPPER 30S CLOSE TO LAKE CHAMPLAIN). FRIDAY THINGS WILL BE CHANGING. THE CLOSELY WATCHED UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY AMPLIFYING AS ENERGY CURRENTLY UP OVER NORTHERN CANADA DIVES INTO THE TROUGH. MODEL TRENDS OF THE PAST FEW DAYS SHOWING THAT THE UPPER TROUGH (AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW) WILL BE DIGGING MORE SOUTH THAN EAST. THUS, LOOKS LIKE THE AREA WILL BE ON THE FRINGE OF ALL THE "EXCITEMENT". STILL CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THICKER CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON, MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER, HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S. HALLOWEEN EVENING AND TRICK OR TREATING TIME: GUIDANCE ALL PRETTY SIMILAR IN SHOWING THAT ALTHOUGH SOME PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD INTO VERMONT BY LATE NIGHT, IT WILL ALL BE ON THE VERY LIGHT SIDE. THE TRENDS OF HAVING THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE TAKE A TRACK FAAAAR SOUTH OF HERE MEAN THAT QPF WILL GENERALLY BE 0.05" OR LESS. AS THE NIGHT GOES ON, THE TEMPERATURES ALOFT DO SLOWLY COOL SUCH THAT FREEZING LEVELS WILL FALL AND BY LATE NIGHT IT SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH THAT A FEW SNOWFLAKES WILL BE SEEN INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. AGAIN, NOT A LOT OF STUFF FALLING FROM THE SKY. PERHAPS A SLUSHY 1/2" AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000FT, ESPECIALLY IN THE `DACKS COME SATURDAY MORNING. BOTTOM LINE, THE GHOULS AND GOBLINS SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET OUT AND AROUND WITHOUT TOO MUCH NEED OF UMBRELLAS -- AT LEAST IT LOOKS THAT WAY AT THIS POINT. WE`LL SEE HOW FUTURE MODEL RUNS TREND. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 402 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPS WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED SAT AND SUN AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST EAST OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK, THEN NORTH TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA. STILL COOL MONDAY BUT DRY UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW. TEMPS RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS A WARM THEN COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. CONFIDENCE INCREASING AS MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT AD CONTINUE TO SHOW DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP UPPER TROF WHICH CLOSES OFF. ALSO FAIR AGREEMENT WITH TRACK OF SFC LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SAT INTO SUNDAY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS OF HOW FAR NORTH AND WEST OF THE LOW THE PRECIPITATION WILL EXTEND AS THE LOW DEEPENS RAPIDLY OVER THE WARM WATERS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND CONVECTION DEVELOPS. THIS IS WHEN THE MODELS USUALLY HAVE THEIR PROBLEMS ESPECIALLY WITH HOW FAR WEST THE LOW WILL BE AND HOW MUCH MOISTURE IS THROWN BACK TOWARD NEW ENGLAND ESPECIALLY LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY. FOR NOW CONTINUING THE IDEA THAT THE OUR AREA WILL ONLY GET LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH MOST AREAS COLD ENOUGH TO SEE A SOME FLAKES ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE MOSTLY SNOW SHOWERS IS EXPECTED WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. IF THE LOW TRACKS A LITTLE FURTHER WEST, PERHAPS EASTERN VT MAY GET IN ON SOME LIGHT BUT STEADIER PRECIPITATION. WE ARE EXPECTING NORTHERLY WINDS TO INCREASE AND BE GUSTY ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. UPPER LEVEL TROF SLOWLY LIFTS OUT OF THE NE CONUS WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL BY TUES CONTINUING INTO WED AS A WARM THEN COLD FRONTS TRAVERSE THE AREA WITH WITH MAINLY A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S SAT AND MONDAY, 30S SUNDAY BUT RECOVERING BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S TUES/WED. LOWS GENERALLY 25 TO 35 BUT WARMING INTO THE 30S BY TUES/WED. && .AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR, HOWEVER LCL MVFR CIGS AT KSLK. A WEAK TROF/COLD FRONT SURFACE AND ALOFT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION BETWEEN 06-12Z AND COULD BRING A SHOWER AT KSLK AROUND 06Z BUT LEFT OUT DUE TO A PROBABILITY OF ABOUT 30% OF MEASURABLE PRECIP. CONSIDERABLE STRATOCUMULUS EXPECTED WITH COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE TROF TOMORROW. SW/W WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS GUST TO 25 KNOTS THOUGH 21Z ESPECIALLY KMSS/KSLK. WINDS GRADUALLY BECOME NW 5 TO 10 KTS TOMORROW. OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY... THU...MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH STRATOCUMULUS AND LIGHT NW FLOW. FRI CLOUDS WL INCREASE AND LOWER BY FRIDAY NIGHT. PERIODS OF -SHRA WITH MTN -SHSN FRI NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH MVFR CIGS IN THE VALLEYS AND POTENTIAL IFR VIS/CIGS AT MPV/SLK. BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP SAT INTO SUNDAY WITH MAINLY MVFR ON MONDAY UNDER NW FLOW. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NASH NEAR TERM...NASH SHORT TERM...NASH LONG TERM...SISSON AVIATION...SISSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
401 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT, BRINGING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES. CLOUDS WILL LINGER EVEN THOUGH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM WEST OF HERE ON FRIDAY AND THEN TRACK WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AND THEN OFFSHORE THE EAST COAST OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN LATE FRIDAY WHICH CHANGES OVER TO A LITTLE BIT OF LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY, NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED, EXCEPT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. CHILLY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY. A WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... AS OF 350 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...MID AFTERNOON UPDATE STILL GOING ON TRACK. JUST MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE NEXT FEW HOURS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS SHOWING LIGHT PRECIPITATION STILL FALLING ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN VERMONT AS THE FRONT EVER SO SLOWLY PUSHES EAST. THE FRONT IS BEST SEEN BY A DEWPOINT DROP (UPPER 40S/LOW 50S TO THE UPPER 30S) ALONG WITH A WINDSHIFT TO SOUTHWEST AND WEST. ON THE TEMPERATURE FRONT FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS, SHADED TOWARD THE WARMER GUIDANCE BASED ON THE EXPECTATION THAT CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR, SO LOOK FOR LOTS OF 30S WITH A FEW LOWER 40S. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 130PM FOLLOWS: THE FORECAST STILL CONTINUES TO BE ON TRACK. THE SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN VERMONT ARE CONTINUING TO DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST WITH SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTING IT WILL END UP SLOWING DOWN EVEN FURTHER AND HANGING AROUND TILL EARLY THIS EVENING. SO THE ONLY REAL CHANGE TO THE POPS WAS TO CONTINUE ITS PROGRESSION ALONG BUT KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH THIS EVENING UNTIL AROUND 7PM. THE ONLY OTHER ADDITION TO THE POP FORECAST WAS TO INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK AS THE WINDS CONTINUE TO SHIFT AROUND THE END RESULT WILL BE PARALLEL FLOW TO THE GREAT LAKES WHICH COULD END UP IN SOME WEAK UPSLOPE SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE ADIRONDACKS OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN THAT ISN`T VERY STRONG BUT THE SIGNAL DOES SHOW UP IN THE HRRR AND SOME LOCAL HI-RES MODELS. THE NEXT CONCERN WAS WHETHER WE WOULD END UP CLEARING OUT BUT AS THE MOISTURE AXIS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST THE FLOW WILL END UP SHIFTING ENOUGH FROM THE WEST TO THE SOUTHWEST THAT THERE WILL BE SOME MOISTURE ADVECTION OFF THE GREAT LAKES RESULTING IN CONTINUED CLOUD COVER. EXPECT THAT TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING. I MADE SOME SLIGHT TWEAKS TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST BECAUSE AT THE THIS POINT WITH THE CLOUD COVER SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WERE INDICATING SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION HAD ALREADY BEGUN AND BOTH MT MANSFIELD AND WHITEFACE MT ARE RUNNING IN THE UPPER 30S LOW 40S RIGHT NOW. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 350 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER TOMORROW AS WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER STILL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WITH A LOW-MID LEVEL SOUTHWEST/WEST FLOW THAT SHOULD KEEP BRINGING IN MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THUS NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER. BEST CHANCES FOR MORE SUN WILL BE DOWN IN SOUTHEASTERN VERMONT WITH THE AID OF DOWNSLOPING OFF THE GREENS. KEPT WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES. WITH 925MB TEMPERATURES IN THE 1-3C RANGE, THE MAXIMUM WE COULD SEE WOULD BE THE LOW 50S. CLOUDS WILL PUT A DAMPER ON THAT, AND SO THE GUIDANCE SHOWING 40S TO NEAR 50 SEEMED GOOD. CAN`T RULE OUT A SPRINKLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN, BUT NOT ENOUGH TO PUT INTO THE FORECAST. THURSDAY NIGHT A LITTLE TRICKY ON THE CLOUDS AND HOW COLD IT COULD GET. AGAIN, THINKING MORE CLOUDS THAN CLEAR AND THIS WILL ACT AS A BLANKET. LEANED A LITTLE TOWARD WARMER GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF THAT. HOWEVER IF WE DO GET SOME CLEARING, IT WILL BE CHILLIER THAN I`M CURRENTLY PAINTING. GENERALLY HAVE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE REGION (SOME UPPER 30S CLOSE TO LAKE CHAMPLAIN). FRIDAY THINGS WILL BE CHANGING. THE CLOSELY WATCHED UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY AMPLIFYING AS ENERGY CURRENTLY UP OVER NORTHERN CANADA DIVES INTO THE TROUGH. MODEL TRENDS OF THE PAST FEW DAYS SHOWING THAT THE UPPER TROUGH (AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW) WILL BE DIGGING MORE SOUTH THAN EAST. THUS, LOOKS LIKE THE AREA WILL BE ON THE FRINGE OF ALL THE "EXCITEMENT". STILL CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THICKER CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON, MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER, HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S. HALLOWEEN EVENING AND TRICK OR TREATING TIME: GUIDANCE ALL PRETTY SIMILAR IN SHOWING THAT ALTHOUGH SOME PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD INTO VERMONT BY LATE NIGHT, IT WILL ALL BE ON THE VERY LIGHT SIDE. THE TRENDS OF HAVING THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE TAKE A TRACK FAAAAR SOUTH OF HERE MEAN THAT QPF WILL GENERALLY BE 0.05" OR LESS. AS THE NIGHT GOES ON, THE TEMPERATURES ALOFT DO SLOWLY COOL SUCH THAT FREEZING LEVELS WILL FALL AND BY LATE NIGHT IT SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH THAT A FEW SNOWFLAKES WILL BE SEEN INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. AGAIN, NOT A LOT OF STUFF FALLING FROM THE SKY. PERHAPS A SLUSHY 1/2" AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000FT, ESPECIALLY IN THE `DACKS COME SATURDAY MORNING. BOTTOM LINE, THE GHOULS AND GOBLINS SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET OUT AND AROUND WITHOUT TOO MUCH NEED OF UMBRELLAS -- AT LEAST IT LOOKS THAT WAY AT THIS POINT. WE`LL SEE HOW FUTURE MODEL RUNS TREND. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 415 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...A DEVELOPING FULL LATITUDE MID/UPPER LVL TROF ACRS THE EASTERN CONUS WL RESULT IN MUCH BLW NORMAL TEMPS THIS WEEKEND ACRS OUR CWA...ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THE MTNS. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPMENT OF TROF AND TRACK OF SFC LOW PRES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SAT INTO SUNDAY...BUT STILL FEEL A FEW MORE SHIFTS ARE LIKELY GIVEN TIME PERIOD IS STILL 84 TO 96 HRS AWAY AND S/W DISTURBANCE OF INTEREST IS LOCATED OVER AN AREA WHICH IS POORLY SAMPLED BY UA DATA. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...POTENT 5H VORT DROPS ACRS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...AND HELPS DEVELOP A CLOSED 5H/7H CIRCULATION OVER NW NORTH CAROLINA BY 12Z SAT. THIS TIGHT/SMALL CIRCULATION WL SHIFT EAST ON SATURDAY...AND HELP ENHANCE SFC LOW PRES OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD...OVER THE WARM GULF STREAM WATERS. TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR S/W ENERGY AND CLOSED CIRCULATION TO TRACK FURTHER SOUTH WHILE SFC LOW PRES DEVELOPS FURTHER OFF THE COAST...RESULTING IN LESS OVERALL MOISTURE/QPF ACRS OUR CWA. HOWEVER...GFS/ECMWF STILL SHOWS SOME 850 TO 500MB RH IN TROF AXIS ACRS OUR FA...ALONG WITH DEVELOPING NORTHERLY WINDS. IN ADDITION...PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN -8 AND -10C...MOVING OVER LAKE CHAMPLAIN WATER TEMPS IN THE MID 50S WL RESULT IN SOME LAKE ENHANCED MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY SAT AFTN INTO SUNDAY. WL CONT TO MENTION LIKELY POPS FOR NORTHERN NY ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH INITIAL NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE. WL SPREAD THESE HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY POPS INTO VT MTNS ON SATURDAY...BEFORE TAPERING BACK BY SUNDAY...AS DRIER AIR DEVELOPS. STILL THINKING A DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES WL BE LIKELY OVER THE WEEKEND ACRS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN NY AND VT. ECMWF CONTS TO SHOW SOME SUPPORT FOR SECONDARY 5H VORT CAPTURING SYSTEM SOON ENOUGH AND PULLING MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION INTO THE GULF OF MAINE ON SUNDAY. IF THIS SCENARIO WAS TO HAPPEN...HIGHER POPS WOULD BE NEEDED ACRS CENTRAL/NORTHERN AND EASTERN VT ZNS ON SUNDAY. ALSO...ANY SHIFT TWD THE SNE COAST WOULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANTLY MORE PRECIP ACRS OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN SECTIONS...WHICH WL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY...ESPECIALLY AS SYSTEM WL BECOME BETTER SAMPLED BY UA DATA OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HRS. TEMPS WL BE IN THE U20S TO MID 30S MTNS TO MID 30S TO L40S VALLEYS SAT...WITH ONLY 20S MTNS AND 30S VALLEYS ON SUNDAY. THESE CHILLY TEMPS WL BE ACCOMPANIED BY BRISK NORTH WINDS AT 15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN THE ALIGNED NORTH/SOUTH VALLEYS. EARLY NEXT WEEK...MID/UPPER LVL TROF SLOWLY LIFTS OUT OF THE NE CONUS WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES BY MONDAY. NEXT WEAK SFC COLD FRNT AND NARROW RIBBON OF MID LVL MOISTURE APPROACHES OUR CWA ON TUES...WITH MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS CLIMB BTWN 2C AND 4C BY 12Z TUESDAY...RESULTING IN MOSTLY LIQUID. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED LLVL COLD AIR HANGS TOUGH EAST OF THE GREEN MTNS ON MONDAY/TUESDAY...WITH TEMPS HOLDING IN THE M30S TO L40S...WHILE PARTS OF THE CPV/SLV WARM INTO THE M40S TO L50S ON SOUTHWEST WINDS. QPF WL BE LIGHT WITH SYSTEM ON TUES < 0.25". && .AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR, HOWEVER LCL MVFR CIGS AT KSLK. A WEAK TROF/COLD FRONT SURFACE AND ALOFT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION BETWEEN 06-12Z AND COULD BRING A SHOWER AT KSLK AROUND 06Z BUT LEFT OUT DUE TO A PROBABILITY OF ABOUT 30% OF MEASURABLE PRECIP. CONSIDERABLE STRATOCUMULUS EXPECTED WITH COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE TROF TOMORROW. SW/W WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS GUST TO 25 KNOTS THOUGH 21Z ESPECIALLY KMSS/KSLK. WINDS GRADUALLY BECOME NW 5 TO 10 KTS TOMORROW. OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY... THU...MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH STRATOCUMULUS AND LIGHT NW FLOW. FRI CLOUDS WL INCREASE AND LOWER BY FRIDAY NIGHT. PERIODS OF -SHRA WITH MTN -SHSN FRI NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH MVFR CIGS IN THE VALLEYS AND POTENTIAL IFR VIS/CIGS AT MPV/SLK. BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP SAT INTO SUNDAY WITH MAINLY MVFR ON MONDAY UNDER NW FLOW. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NASH NEAR TERM...NASH/DEAL SHORT TERM...NASH LONG TERM...TABER AVIATION...SISSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
212 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT TODAY. A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RESIDE OVER THE REGION LATER TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING COOLER. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... AS OF 133 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... THE FORECAST STILL CONTINUES TO BE ON TRACK. THE SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN VERMONT ARE CONTINUING TO DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST WITH SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTING IT WILL END UP SLOWING DOWN EVEN FURTHER AND HANGING AROUND TILL EARLY THIS EVENING. SO THE ONLY REAL CHANGE TO THE POPS WAS TO CONTINUE ITS PROGRESSION ALONG BUT KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH THIS EVENING UNTIL AROUND 7PM. THE ONLY OTHER ADDITION TO THE POP FORECAST WAS TO INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK AS THE WINDS CONTINUE TO SHIFT AROUND THE END RESULT WILL BE PARALLEL FLOW TO THE GREAT LAKES WHICH COULD END UP IN SOME WEAK UPSLOPE SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE ADIRONDACKS OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN THAT ISN`T VERY STRONG BUT THE SIGNAL DOES SHOW UP IN THE HRRR AND SOME LOCAL HI-RES MODELS. THE NEXT CONCERN WAS WHETHER WE WOULD END UP CLEARING OUT BUT AS THE MOISTURE AXIS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST THE FLOW WILL END UP SHIFTING ENOUGH FROM THE WEST TO THE SOUTHWEST THAT THERE WILL BE SOME MOISTURE ADVECTION OFF THE GREAT LAKES RESULTING IN CONTINUED CLOUD COVER. EXPECT THAT TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING. I MADE SOME SLIGHT TWEAKS TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST BECAUSE AT THE THIS POINT WITH THE CLOUD COVER SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WERE INDICATING SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION HAD ALREADY BEGUN AND BOTH MT MANSFIELD AND WHITEFACE MT ARE RUNNING IN THE UPPER 30S LOW 40S RIGHT NOW. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 436 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...EXPECTING MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION AND WINDS WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. A SHARP UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY...WITH CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED OVER THE REGION. HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK...MAINLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR RAIN SHOWERS...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 415 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...A DEVELOPING FULL LATITUDE MID/UPPER LVL TROF ACRS THE EASTERN CONUS WL RESULT IN MUCH BLW NORMAL TEMPS THIS WEEKEND ACRS OUR CWA...ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THE MTNS. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPMENT OF TROF AND TRACK OF SFC LOW PRES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SAT INTO SUNDAY...BUT STILL FEEL A FEW MORE SHIFTS ARE LIKELY GIVEN TIME PERIOD IS STILL 84 TO 96 HRS AWAY AND S/W DISTURBANCE OF INTEREST IS LOCATED OVER AN AREA WHICH IS POORLY SAMPLED BY UA DATA. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...POTENT 5H VORT DROPS ACRS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...AND HELPS DEVELOP A CLOSED 5H/7H CIRCULATION OVER NW NORTH CAROLINA BY 12Z SAT. THIS TIGHT/SMALL CIRCULATION WL SHIFT EAST ON SATURDAY...AND HELP ENHANCE SFC LOW PRES OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD...OVER THE WARM GULF STREAM WATERS. TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR S/W ENERGY AND CLOSED CIRCULATION TO TRACK FURTHER SOUTH WHILE SFC LOW PRES DEVELOPS FURTHER OFF THE COAST...RESULTING IN LESS OVERALL MOISTURE/QPF ACRS OUR CWA. HOWEVER...GFS/ECMWF STILL SHOWS SOME 850 TO 500MB RH IN TROF AXIS ACRS OUR FA...ALONG WITH DEVELOPING NORTHERLY WINDS. IN ADDITION...PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN -8 AND -10C...MOVING OVER LAKE CHAMPLAIN WATER TEMPS IN THE MID 50S WL RESULT IN SOME LAKE ENHANCED MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY SAT AFTN INTO SUNDAY. WL CONT TO MENTION LIKELY POPS FOR NORTHERN NY ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH INITIAL NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE. WL SPREAD THESE HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY POPS INTO VT MTNS ON SATURDAY...BEFORE TAPERING BACK BY SUNDAY...AS DRIER AIR DEVELOPS. STILL THINKING A DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES WL BE LIKELY OVER THE WEEKEND ACRS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN NY AND VT. ECMWF CONTS TO SHOW SOME SUPPORT FOR SECONDARY 5H VORT CAPTURING SYSTEM SOON ENOUGH AND PULLING MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION INTO THE GULF OF MAINE ON SUNDAY. IF THIS SCENARIO WAS TO HAPPEN...HIGHER POPS WOULD BE NEEDED ACRS CENTRAL/NORTHERN AND EASTERN VT ZNS ON SUNDAY. ALSO...ANY SHIFT TWD THE SNE COAST WOULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANTLY MORE PRECIP ACRS OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN SECTIONS...WHICH WL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY...ESPECIALLY AS SYSTEM WL BECOME BETTER SAMPLED BY UA DATA OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HRS. TEMPS WL BE IN THE U20S TO MID 30S MTNS TO MID 30S TO L40S VALLEYS SAT...WITH ONLY 20S MTNS AND 30S VALLEYS ON SUNDAY. THESE CHILLY TEMPS WL BE ACCOMPANIED BY BRISK NORTH WINDS AT 15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN THE ALIGNED NORTH/SOUTH VALLEYS. EARLY NEXT WEEK...MID/UPPER LVL TROF SLOWLY LIFTS OUT OF THE NE CONUS WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES BY MONDAY. NEXT WEAK SFC COLD FRNT AND NARROW RIBBON OF MID LVL MOISTURE APPROACHES OUR CWA ON TUES...WITH MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS CLIMB BTWN 2C AND 4C BY 12Z TUESDAY...RESULTING IN MOSTLY LIQUID. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED LLVL COLD AIR HANGS TOUGH EAST OF THE GREEN MTNS ON MONDAY/TUESDAY...WITH TEMPS HOLDING IN THE M30S TO L40S...WHILE PARTS OF THE CPV/SLV WARM INTO THE M40S TO L50S ON SOUTHWEST WINDS. QPF WL BE LIGHT WITH SYSTEM ON TUES < 0.25". && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR, HOWEVER LCL MVFR CIGS AT KSLK. A WEAK TROF/COLD FRONT SURFACE AND ALOFT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION BETWEEN 06-12Z AND COULD BRING A SHOWER AT KSLK AROUND 06Z BUT LEFT OUT DUE TO A PROBABILITY OF ABOUT 30% OF MEASURABLE PRECIP. CONSIDERABLE STRATOCUMULUS EXPECTED WITH COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE TROF TOMORROW. SW/W WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS GUST TO 25 KNOTS THOUGH 21Z ESPECIALLY KMSS/KSLK. WINDS GRADUALLY BECOME NW 5 TO 10 KTS TOMORROW. OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY... THU...MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH STRATOCUMULUS AND LIGHT NW FLOW. FRI CLOUDS WL INCREASE AND LOWER BY FRIDAY NIGHT. PERIODS OF -SHRA WITH MTN -SHSN FRI NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH MVFR CIGS IN THE VALLEYS AND POTENTIAL IFR VIS/CIGS AT MPV/SLK. BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP SAT INTO SUNDAY WITH MAINLY MVFR ON MONDAY UNDER NW FLOW. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WGH NEAR TERM...DEAL SHORT TERM...WGH LONG TERM...TABER AVIATION...SISSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
155 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT TODAY. A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RESIDE OVER THE REGION LATER TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING COOLER. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... AS OF 133 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... THE FORECAST STILL CONTINUES TO BE ON TRACK. THE SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN VERMONT ARE CONTINUING TO DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST WITH SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTING IT WILL END UP SLOWING DOWN EVEN FURTHER AND HANGING AROUND TILL EARLY THIS EVENING. SO THE ONLY REAL CHANGE TO THE POPS WAS TO CONTINUE ITS PROGRESSION ALONG BUT KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH THIS EVENING UNTIL AROUND 7PM. THE ONLY OTHER ADDITION TO THE POP FORECAST WAS TO INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK AS THE WINDS CONTINUE TO SHIFT AROUND THE END RESULT WILL BE PARALLEL FLOW TO THE GREAT LAKES WHICH COULD END UP IN SOME WEAK UPSLOPE SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE ADIRONDACKS OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN THAT ISN`T VERY STRONG BUT THE SIGNAL DOES SHOW UP IN THE HRRR AND SOME LOCAL HI-RES MODELS. THE NEXT CONCERN WAS WHETHER WE WOULD END UP CLEARING OUT BUT AS THE MOISTURE AXIS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST THE FLOW WILL END UP SHIFTING ENOUGH FROM THE WEST TO THE SOUTHWEST THAT THERE WILL BE SOME MOISTURE ADVECTION OFF THE GREAT LAKES RESULTING IN CONTINUED CLOUD COVER. EXPECT THAT TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING. I MADE SOME SLIGHT TWEAKS TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST BECAUSE AT THE THIS POINT WITH THE CLOUD COVER SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WERE INDICATING SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION HAD ALREADY BEGUN AND BOTH MT MANSFIELD AND WHITEFACE MT ARE RUNNING IN THE UPPER 30S LOW 40S RIGHT NOW. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 436 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...EXPECTING MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION AND WINDS WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. A SHARP UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY...WITH CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED OVER THE REGION. HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK...MAINLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR RAIN SHOWERS...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 415 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...A DEVELOPING FULL LATITUDE MID/UPPER LVL TROF ACRS THE EASTERN CONUS WL RESULT IN MUCH BLW NORMAL TEMPS THIS WEEKEND ACRS OUR CWA...ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THE MTNS. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPMENT OF TROF AND TRACK OF SFC LOW PRES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SAT INTO SUNDAY...BUT STILL FEEL A FEW MORE SHIFTS ARE LIKELY GIVEN TIME PERIOD IS STILL 84 TO 96 HRS AWAY AND S/W DISTURBANCE OF INTEREST IS LOCATED OVER AN AREA WHICH IS POORLY SAMPLED BY UA DATA. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...POTENT 5H VORT DROPS ACRS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...AND HELPS DEVELOP A CLOSED 5H/7H CIRCULATION OVER NW NORTH CAROLINA BY 12Z SAT. THIS TIGHT/SMALL CIRCULATION WL SHIFT EAST ON SATURDAY...AND HELP ENHANCE SFC LOW PRES OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD...OVER THE WARM GULF STREAM WATERS. TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR S/W ENERGY AND CLOSED CIRCULATION TO TRACK FURTHER SOUTH WHILE SFC LOW PRES DEVELOPS FURTHER OFF THE COAST...RESULTING IN LESS OVERALL MOISTURE/QPF ACRS OUR CWA. HOWEVER...GFS/ECMWF STILL SHOWS SOME 850 TO 500MB RH IN TROF AXIS ACRS OUR FA...ALONG WITH DEVELOPING NORTHERLY WINDS. IN ADDITION...PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN -8 AND -10C...MOVING OVER LAKE CHAMPLAIN WATER TEMPS IN THE MID 50S WL RESULT IN SOME LAKE ENHANCED MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY SAT AFTN INTO SUNDAY. WL CONT TO MENTION LIKELY POPS FOR NORTHERN NY ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH INITIAL NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE. WL SPREAD THESE HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY POPS INTO VT MTNS ON SATURDAY...BEFORE TAPERING BACK BY SUNDAY...AS DRIER AIR DEVELOPS. STILL THINKING A DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES WL BE LIKELY OVER THE WEEKEND ACRS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN NY AND VT. ECMWF CONTS TO SHOW SOME SUPPORT FOR SECONDARY 5H VORT CAPTURING SYSTEM SOON ENOUGH AND PULLING MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION INTO THE GULF OF MAINE ON SUNDAY. IF THIS SCENARIO WAS TO HAPPEN...HIGHER POPS WOULD BE NEEDED ACRS CENTRAL/NORTHERN AND EASTERN VT ZNS ON SUNDAY. ALSO...ANY SHIFT TWD THE SNE COAST WOULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANTLY MORE PRECIP ACRS OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN SECTIONS...WHICH WL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY...ESPECIALLY AS SYSTEM WL BECOME BETTER SAMPLED BY UA DATA OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HRS. TEMPS WL BE IN THE U20S TO MID 30S MTNS TO MID 30S TO L40S VALLEYS SAT...WITH ONLY 20S MTNS AND 30S VALLEYS ON SUNDAY. THESE CHILLY TEMPS WL BE ACCOMPANIED BY BRISK NORTH WINDS AT 15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN THE ALIGNED NORTH/SOUTH VALLEYS. EARLY NEXT WEEK...MID/UPPER LVL TROF SLOWLY LIFTS OUT OF THE NE CONUS WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES BY MONDAY. NEXT WEAK SFC COLD FRNT AND NARROW RIBBON OF MID LVL MOISTURE APPROACHES OUR CWA ON TUES...WITH MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS CLIMB BTWN 2C AND 4C BY 12Z TUESDAY...RESULTING IN MOSTLY LIQUID. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED LLVL COLD AIR HANGS TOUGH EAST OF THE GREEN MTNS ON MONDAY/TUESDAY...WITH TEMPS HOLDING IN THE M30S TO L40S...WHILE PARTS OF THE CPV/SLV WARM INTO THE M40S TO L50S ON SOUTHWEST WINDS. QPF WL BE LIGHT WITH SYSTEM ON TUES < 0.25". && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...WEAK SFC COLD FRNT AND ASSOCIATED RIBBON OF MOISTURE IS PRODUCING A NARROW BAND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FROM MPV TO RUT THIS MORNING. THIS PRECIP WL BE EAST OF OUR TAF SITES BY 14Z. OTHERWISE...OBS AT PBG/SLK THIS MORNING HAVE INDICATED SOME SHALLOW GROUND FOG WITH BRIEF LIFR CONDITIONS...BUT THIS SHOULD QUICKLY LIFT AS WINDS INCREASE. EXPECTING A BREEZY DAY WITH SOUTHWEST/WEST WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS AND GUSTS BTWN 20 AND 30 KNOTS...ESPECIALLY BTWN 15-21Z TODAY. SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD MIXING AS SFC HEATING OCCURS AND SKIES BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY WITH VFR CONDITION. MOISTURE INCREASES THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT RAIN AND MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY AT SLK AFT 03Z...AS LAKE MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THRU FRIDAY AFTN. CLOUDS WL INCREASE AND LOWER BY FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES OUR TAF SITES. SCATTERED RAIN WITH MTN SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH MVFR CIGS IN THE VALLEYS AND POTENTIAL IFR VIS/CIGS AT MPV/SLK. BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP SAT INTO SUNDAY WITH SCATTERED MTN SNOW SHOWERS AND VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS/MIXED WITH SNOW ON SAT NIGHT. MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS ANTICIPATED. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WGH NEAR TERM...DEAL SHORT TERM...WGH LONG TERM...TABER AVIATION...TABER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
303 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014 CURRENT VIS SATELLITE SHOWS AN AREA OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ROUGHLY ALONG AND ADJACENT TO (ND SIDE) THE RED RIVER VALLEY. MORE CLOUD COVER IS MOVING IN FROM SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND WILL LIKELY FILL THIS IN...HOWEVER NOW HAVE MORE HOPE THAN AT PREV UPDATE THE WESTERN EDGE WILL FURTHER ERODE TO THOSE ZONES ALONG THE VALLEY ON THE MN SIDE. FURTHER EAST...MAY SEE CLOUDS LINGER WELL INTO THE NIGHT IN BELTRAMI/LAKE OF THE WOODS/WADENA COUNTIES. MODELS CONTINUE TO VARY IN PLACEMENT OF PRECIP...WITH ECMWF HAVING THE MOST COVERAGE...THE NAM A SMALLER AREA BASICALLY TARGETING SE ND...THE GEM E CNTRL ND AND THE GFS AN EAST/WEST BAND ORIENTED ACROSS W CNTRL MN. THE HRRR COMP REF PRODUCT TENDS TO BRING PRECIP INTO THE AREAS DEPICTED BY THE GEM/ECMWF (FURTHER NORTH) AND A BLEND OF THESE MODELS IS WHAT I HAVE USED FOR POP GRIDS...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SRN VALLEY. TONIGHT...SFC LOW WILL TRACK ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE INTL BORDER...DROPPING INTO SRN MN BY 12Z TOMORROW MORNING. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE IN THE WAY OF GROUND TRUTH FROM METARS IN ERN MT AND WRN ND...MOST SITES SHOWING 6K CIGS AND NO PRECIP. RADAR AND OB FROM KDIK DOES INDICATE PRECIP REACHING THE SFC AROUND AND SOUTH OF LAKE SAKAKAWEA. THESE ECHOES ARE MOVING NEARLY DUE EAST SO PRECIP MAY STAY SOUTH OF HWY 2 CORRIDOR. WILL ADJUST POP GRIDS PRIOR TO 4 PM FCST ISSUANCE. PRECIP SHOULD ENTER WRN EDGE OF CWA AROUND OR JUST AFTER 00Z AND LIKELY CLEAR ND BY 12Z. TOMORROW...A WEAK WAVE WILL MOVE INTO WRN ONTARIO AS MODEST COLD ADVECTION BRINGS COOLER TEMPS INTO THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA. THIS COULD DRAW ENOUGH COLD AIR IN TO SEE SOME SNOW FLAKES IN BELTRAMI/LAKE OF THE WOODS AND HAVE ADDED MENTION OF SNOW TO THE FCST. WILL NOT HAVE ANY SNOW WOULD LIKELY MELT ON THE WARMER SURFACES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DROP DOWN FROM MANITOBA AND THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA SHOULD CLEAR OUT AND BE DRY. TOMORROW NIGHT...RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OVER FAR EASTERN ZONES ON FRI AND FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED EAST...WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT WITHIN AND WEST OF THE VALLEY. AM GENERALLY TRENDING SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS DUE TO SOME WEAK MIXING CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS DVL BASIN. REGARDLESS COOLER AIR ADVECTED IN DURING THE DAY WILL HELP DROP OVERNIGHT LOWS AT LEAST INTO THE MID 20S...PERHAPS THE TEENS WITH LIGHTER WINDS IN THE FAR EAST. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014 FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS AND BRINGS DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION. MOST SOLAR WILL BE ON SATURDAY AND TEMPS WILL LIKELY CLIMB WELL INTO THE 40S WITH QUITE BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS SETTING UP. SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS TO SHIFT EAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH SHORT WAVE PASSAGE LATE IN THE WEEKEND EARLY NEXT WEEK. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW LIFTS FROM CENTRAL ND INTO CANADA. OVERALL AT THIS POINT PCPN AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT WITH LOW TO OUR NORTH ALTHOUGH COULD SEE A MIX AS COOLER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND FROPA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE CLOSE TO AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 104 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014 DID BEST ATTEMPT WITH CLEARING/OR LIFTING CIGS INTO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST. DVL TO LIFT TO VFR SOON WITH HOPEFULLY GFK/FAR LATE AFTERNOON AND BJI EARLY EVENING. PCPN SO FAR THIS EVENING SPOTTY AND HANDLED WITH VCSH UNTIL WE GET BETTER DEVELOPMENT. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...SPEICHER LONG TERM...SPEICHER/VOELKER AVIATION...VOELKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
103 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 104 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014 THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA IS BEGINNING TO SEE SOME SOLAR BUT THE WESTERN EDGE CONTINUES TO ONLY INCH ITS WAY EASTWARD. DO NOT ANTICIPATE IT ARRIVING INTO VALLEY ENOUGH TO HELP TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE 40S. HAVE LOWERED CLOUDY AREAS BY ANOTHER 3 DEG TODAY...WITH TEMPS IN THE VALLEY RIGHT AROUND 39 OR 40 BY SUNDOWN. BIGGEST CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPS ALONG THE CLOUD FREE LINE EASTWARD TO WHERE THE LINE IS LOCATED AT SUNDOWN. WILL LIKELY NEED TO MAKE CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR EASTERN HALF OF CWA TONIGHT...WILL ADDRESS AT 4 PM UPDATE. UPDATE ISSUED AT 955 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014 ENTIRE CWA CONTINUES TO BE OVERCAST AS WRN EDGE OF STRATOCU DECK INCHES ITSELF EASTWARD. WILL GO AHEAD AND KNOCK DAYTIME TEMPS DOWN A DEG OR TWO AS A LATE START TO ANY HEATING IS EXPECTED. NEW NAM KEEPS PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH LOW CURRENTLY OVER SRN SASK IN CNTRL DAKOTAS THROUGH 00Z...SO HAVE REMOVED LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SHEYENNE VALLEY. WILL HOLD OFF ANY PRECIP UNTIL AFT 00Z. WILL READDRESS TEMPS FOR THIS AFTN WITH NEXT UPDATE AS IT IS A BIT EARLY TO TELL IMPACTS ON CLOUDS...BUT 2 DEG COOLER THAN PREV CURVE INDICATED SHOULD BE A DECENT START. UPDATE ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014 BACK EDGE OF CLEARING LINE STILL EVER SO SLOWLY CLEARING EAST- NORTHEAST. STILL NOT PROGGED TO REACH GRAND FORKS AREA TIL VERY LATE TODAY. SO CLOUDY IDEA WAY TO GO. NO ADJUSTMENT TO HIGHS TODAY BUT COULD HAVE TO BE NUDGED DOWN A FEW. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014 UPPER LOW MOVING INTO EASTERN ONTARIO EARLY THIS MORNING. ISSUE TODAY WILL BE CLOUD TRENDS AND THEN CHANCE OF PRECIP WITH NEXT WEAK SHORT WAVE FOR LATER TODAY/THIS. WRAPAROUND STRATOCU FIELD BEHIND UPPER LOW EXTENDS BACK OVER ALL OF SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH DAKOTA AND ALL OF MINNESOTA. BACK EDGE HAS BEEN CLEARING SLOWLY AND IS NEAR A STANLEY TO BISMARCK LINE AND TIMING TOOLS SHOW AT ITS CURRENT RATE IT WILL REACH WRN FCST AREA BY 15Z AND INTO THE RRV BUT PERHAPS NOT AS LATE AS 21-23Z. USING THE SFC RIDGE AXIS AS BACK EDGE OF THE STRATOCU AND LATEST HRRR IT WOULD HAVE CLEARING TRYING TO COME INTO THE VALLEY 18Z-19Z. CLOUDS WILL PUT A DAMPER ON TEMPS. NEXT SHORT WAVE IS PACIFIC MOISTURE IN NATURE AND IS MOVING INTO WESTERN MONTANA. THIS WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE TODAY AND SPREAD THRU ERN ND THIS EVENING AND INTO MINNESOTA TONIGHT. EXPECT A FEW RAIN SHOWERS WITH THIS SYSTEM THOUGH WITH MOISTURE PACIFIC IN NATURE AND MOSTLY MID LEVEL BASED AMOUNTS OF PRECIP WILL BE QUITE LOW...A FEW HUNDREDTHS AT BEST. TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM IS A BIT SLOWER THAN IT SHOWED ON PAST DAYS. BEHIND THIS SHORT WAVE...A FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE NOW WELL NORTH OF YELLOWKNIFE NWT WILL MOVE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AND TOWARD THE MN ARROWHEAD THURSDAY AFTN. EXPECT A FAST MOVING BUT SHARP COLD FRONT TO DROP SOUTH THRU THE AREA THURSDAY ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTH WINDS. MODELS HAVE HAVE TRENDED A BIT COLDER WITH THIS SYSTEM AND ALSO A BIT FARTHER WEST WITH SFC HIGH PLACEMENT. WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS IN THE NORTHEASTERN FCST AREA FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTN. ALSO TRIMMED HIGHS THURSDAY A FEW DEGREES AND UPPED WINDS A BIT HIGHER THAN BLENDED SOLNS DUE TO TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND QUICK SHOT OF STRONG 850 MB COLD ADVECTION. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014 850 MB TEMPS DROP TO -10C BY 00Z FRI AS HIGH SETTLES SOUTH INTO CNTRL ND. EXPECT A CLEAR SKY FOR MOST AREAS WITH COLDEST VALUES AND LESS WIND IN CNTRL-ERN ND. PAST FEW RUNS HAVE SHOWN A BIT COLDER AIRMASS...AND WITH THAT DROPPED LOWS FOR FRI AM A FEW DEGREES...BUT NOT QUITE AS COLD AS SOME MODELS. GENERALLY WENT 15-20F FOR ERN ND AND 20-25 IN MN. FRIDAY WILL BE A CHILLY DAY WITH SUNSHINE WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE 30S. RETURN FLOW SETS UP LATE FRI AFTN IN WRN FCST AND SPREAD EAST FRI NIGHT. ALSO SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS FRI NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. FOR SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY WILL KEEP THINGS QUIET PCPN WISE BUT IT SHOULD BE A LITTLE BREEZY. START TO GET INTO SOUTHWEST FLOW ON SUNDAY AS A 500MB TROUGH DIGS INTO THE ROCKIES. MODELS DIFFER A LITTLE IN HOW TO HANDLE THE ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THIS SYSTEM WITH THE ECMWF/GEM SHOWING TWO WEAK SFC LOWS...ONE OVER WESTERN ND AND THE SECOND OVER EASTERN COLORADO. GFS HAS ONE COMBINED LOW OVER WESTERN NE. GUIDANCE FAVORS THE ECMWF/GEM SOLUTION WHICH WOULD HAVE SOME WEAK SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN FA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NORTHERN LOW. BY MONDAY EACH MODEL DIFFERS QUITE A BIT WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING THE NORTHERN SFC LOW DOMINANT WHILE THE GEM SHOWS THE SOUTHERN ONE MORE SO AND THE GFS IN BETWEEN. THIS TRANSLATES INTO THE ECMWF BYPASSING MOST OF THE FA WITH ANY PCPN...THE GFS RIGHT OVER THE FA AND THE GEM OVER THE SOUTHERN FA. WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THIS WORKS OUT WITH LATER RUNS. BY TUE DRY WEATHER SHOULD RETURN. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 104 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014 DID BEST ATTEMPT WITH CLEARING/OR LIFTING CIGS INTO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST. DVL TO LIFT TO VFR SOON WITH HOPEFULLY GFK/FAR LATE AFTERNOON AND BJI EARLY EVENING. PCPN SO FAR THIS EVENING SPOTTY AND HANDLED WITH VCSH UNTIL WE GET BETTER DEVELOPMENT. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...SPEICHER SHORT TERM...RIDDLE LONG TERM...GODON/RIDDLE AVIATION...VOELKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1251 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014 AS OF 1730 UTC...THE WARM FRONT WAS JUST CROSSING THROUGH THE HIGHWAY 85 CORRIDOR. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WERE ALONG AND IN TRAIL OF THE WARM FRONT THROUGH GLASGOW IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN EXPECTATIONS FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THE BEST CHANCES BOUNDED BETWEEN I-94 AND HIGHWAY 2. UPDATE ISSUED AT 957 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014 LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA AS OF 15 UTC IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE INTERACTING WITH THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EAST TODAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY BE BOUNDED BY I-94 AND US HIGHWAY 2 BASED UPON RADAR TRENDS...THE 00 UTC WRF-ARW/NMM...06 UTC GFS AND 09 UTC SREF. A FEW FLAKES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR WEST AROUND MIDDAY...OTHERWISE...PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ALL RAIN. UPDATE ISSUED AT 646 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014 ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY SKY GRIDS BASED ON THE CURRENT OBS/TRENDS OF THE STRATUS SHIELD MOVING INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINING WEATHER ELEMENTS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014 TIMING OF THE EXIT OF THE LARGE CLOUD SHIELD OVER THE STATE...THEN CHANCES OF SHOWERS TODAY ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. CURRENTLY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED FROM NORTHERN MANITOBA ACROSS THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS AND INTO NEBRASKA. A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF HUDSON BAY. A LARGE CLOUD SHIELD OF WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW EXTENDED WESTWARD TO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. TO THE WEST...A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDED ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES FROM A LOW OVER ALBERTA SOUTHWARD ACROSS MONTANA AND WYOMING. THE CLOUD DECK CONTINUED TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE HUDSON BAY LOW CONTINUES MOVING NORTHEAST...AND AS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA FROM THE WEST. LATEST SAT PICS INDICATE THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CLOUD DECK WAS NEAR STANLEY...TO MANDAN/BISMARCK...TO NEAR FORT YATES. KEPT THE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. AS SKIES CLEAR...RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPS THAT MAY DROP QUICKLY...CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SHOULD HAVE THESE CONDITIONS IN THOSE FEW HOURS BEFORE/AROUND SUNRISE. THE LATEST HRRR RUNS INDICATE THE CLOUD DECK SHOULD CLEAR THE JAMESTOWN AREA BEFORE NOON. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE LOW LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY FIELD OF THE NAM. FOLLOWING THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVING IN FROM THE WEST IS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO ENTER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BEFORE/AROUND NOON...AND MOVE EAST ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE STATE. EXPECTING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING LATE MORNING IN THE WEST...AND KEPT CHANCES IN FOR ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LINGERING CHANCES IN THE JAMES VALLEY THIS EVENING. TONIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW THE EXITING SURFACE LOW...AND WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY...GOOD COLD ADVECTION WILL BEGIN...AND A LARGE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014 STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE GREAT PLAINS WILL GENERATE DRY CONDITIONS OVER NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST AS COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG A SHORTWAVE TO LIFT SOMEWHERE INTO EASTERN MONTANA/WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE ECMWF/GEM HAVE WEAKENED THE SHORTWAVE AND HAVE NUDGED ITS TRACK A LITTLE FARTHER WEST INTO MONTANA. HOWEVER...THE LATEST GFS IS SLOWER AND STRONGER WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM...PLACING IT OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY. IF THE GFS WERE TO VERIFY...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WOULD BE AN ISSUE OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY. GIVEN THE MODEL TO MODEL AND RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCIES...WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST A MODEL BLEND. GIVEN THE RECENT WEAKENING ECMWF AND GEM TRENDS...WILL NOT GET TOO EXCITED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES SUNDAY-MONDAY. IT IS EXPECTED THAT LATER RUNS OF THE GFS WILL BEGIN TO TREND TOWARDS THE ECMWF AS IT HAS ALL SEASON. NEVERTHELESS...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN FORECAST TUESDAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014 A WARM FRONT ACROSS FAR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE DAY. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT...WITH VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. A COLD FRONT WILL OVERTAKE THE AREA FROM SOUTHERN CANADA THIS EVENING...WITH MVFR STRATUS IN TRAIL THROUGH THURSDAY. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...AYD SHORT TERM...JV LONG TERM...TM AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
420 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND REMAIN FOR THURSDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...ALONG WITH MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND. A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... AREA OF SC ASSOCIATED WITH H5 S/W AND H8 CAA CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE RAP AND HRRR PUSH IT JUST PAST THE OHIO RIVER BEFORE STALLING OUT. AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND H5 RIDGING BUILDS IN AFT 06Z...EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO ERODE FROM THE SW....WITH CLEARING MAKING IT INTO THE CVG TRI-STATE REGION AFTER 06Z. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S TO ALLOW PATCHY FROST TO FOG. WAS TOSSING AROUND THE IDEA OF ISSUING A FROST ADVISORY FOR THE CVG TRI-STATE...BUT THE OFFICES TO WEST WHICH WILL CLEAR OUT SOONER ARE HOLDING OFF...SO DONT WANT TO STAND OUT AND BE METEOROLOGICALLY INCONSISTENT. WILL MENTION PATCHY FROST IN THE SW. ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF...EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO LINGER WHICH WILL PREVENT FROST FROM FORMING. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 30S TONIGHT...WITH THE UPPER 30S IN THE SE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD HELP SCATTER OUT ANY LINGERING SC. HOWEVER ANOTHER H5 S/W DROPPING INTO THE REGION WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS IN FROM THE WEST. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND COLD FRONT WILL WORK TOWARDS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS SFC CONVERGENCE AND LIFT WILL INCREASE...BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS...MAINLY TO THE WESTERN AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT. FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO A DIGGING H5 S/W WHICH CUTS OFF OVER THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY AND DIGS INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS COMPLEX SYSTEM WILL BRING AN INCREASE CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA FOR FRIDAY. ADDED THE MENTION OF THUNDER FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EXTREME SE WHERE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD POSSIBLY HELP CREATE AN ISOLATED BOLT OR THUNDER. AS THE UPPER LOW DROPS S OF THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. 1000-850 CRITICAL THICKNESS DROPS ENOUGH FOR SNOW TO MIX WITH THE RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT. RIGHT NOW...AM NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL MANAGE TO WORK BACK INTO THE 50S TOMORROW AS THE HIGH PASSES OVER. WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW THURSDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP THE LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. ON FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FA. IT IS LOOKING LIKE TEMPERATURES IN THE NW WONT JUMP TOO MUCH BEFORE BEGINNING TO FALL BACK DURING THE AFTN. ELSEWHERE THE DIURNAL TRACE WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL...BUT A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRACE WAS STILL NECESSARY. NLY WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY. UPPED THE GUSTS TO THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30. TEMPERATURES IN SE COULD DROP BELOW FREEZING FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT PCPN SHOULD HAVE ENDING BEFORE THAT OCCURS. IT IS A LITTLE EARLY TO ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH. IN THE E...LINGERING PCPN ALONG WITH THE CLOUDS AND WIND WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE MID 30S. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SATURDAY STARTS OUT WITH THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON ATOP THE OHIO VALLEY. LOW PRESSURE IN THE MID ATLANTIC AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. ARE COMBINING TO CREATE STRONG NORTH WINDS THAT WILL PULL COLD AIR OVER THE REGION...HIGHS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40S AND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD SEE LINGERING SHOWERS MIX WITH SNOW BEFORE THEY END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. SUNDAY MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE COLDER THAN SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE CORE OF THE HIGH SETTLING OVER THE AREA AT 12Z. GUIDANCE WOULD HAVE HAD ME RAISE THE READINGS THAT WERE IN THE 25-28 DEG RANGE FOR THIS TIME FRAME. I WAS HESITANT TO FORECAST A RISE IN TEMPERATURES AND DECIDED TO KEEP THE PREVIOUS COOLER FORECAST IN PLAY FOR ANOTHER DAY. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR AND AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP STARTING TUESDAY WITH A WARMING TREND THAT WILL PUT READINGS MORE TOWARDS NORMAL VALUES...SLIGHTLY WARMER ON OVERNIGHT LOWS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON TUESDAY. MODELS DIVERGE IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM. INITIAL FORECAST HAD THE FRONT CROSS EARLY TUESDAY AND HAVE DRY WEATHER OVER THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY. LATEST EUROPEAN MODEL COMES THROUGH WITH AN ELONGATED NE-SW TROUGH WITH A MID LEVEL STRONG SHORTWAVE RIDING NORTHEAST ALONG IT ON WEDNESDAY. THE FORECAST BLENDED THE TWO WITH AN INITIAL NOD TO THE GFS. FEEL THAT THIS MAY NEED TO LEAN TOWARDS THE WETTER AND MORE DYNAMIC EURO MODEL SOLUTION IN FUTURE FORECASTS. && .AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... STRATOCUMULUS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE TERMINALS EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD. THESE CEILINGS WILL PERSIST WELL AFTER 00Z. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WHEN CLOUDS WILL START TO SCATTER WITH CURRENT THINKING THAT IT WILL BE CLOSER TO 12Z. THIS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT THOUGH AS CLOUD BASES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 3000 FT. SO VFR SHOULD PREVAIL. SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER 00Z AND THEN BECOME LIGHT FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING...THEN MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO THE REMAINDER OF SATURDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HATZOS/SITES NEAR TERM...SITES SHORT TERM...SITES LONG TERM...FRANKS AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEDFORD OR
252 PM PDT WED OCT 29 2014 .SHORT TERM...AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND IS BRINGING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH THIS EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS INTO THE AREA, MAINLY WEST OF THE CASCADES IN OREGON. MODELS HAVE DONE POORLY WITH REPRESENTING THE PRECIPITATION AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT AND THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY ON HOW WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL BE AS THE FRONT LINGERS OVER THE AREA. THEN OVERNIGHT THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH AND A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE COOS AND DOUGLAS COAST AREA. THIS WILL BRING CONTINUED AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO THE COAST AND INLAND, MAINLY INTO INTERIOR DOUGLAS COUNTY. THEN MODELS ARE ON TRACK FOR A FRONT TO SLOWLY APPROACH THE COAST THURSDAY AND SLOWLY PUSHING INLAND LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING BREEZY AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE COAST, SHASTA VALLEY AND SUMMER LAKE AREAS AS WELL AS TO THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE SHASTA AND SUMMER LAKE AREAS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH. BASED ON THE 12Z MODEL RUNS, RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ALONG THE COAST BY THURSDAY EVENING...THEN SLOWLY SPREAD INLAND THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER AREAS FROM THE CASCADES WEST. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH INTO THE CASCADES FRIDAY AFTERNOON THEN EASTWARD FRIDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. THE NAM IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER TO PUSH THE FRONT INLAND AND EAST OF THE CASCADES FRIDAY EVENING THAN THE GFS AND ECMWF AND SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN LINGERING ALONG AREAS JUST WEST OF THE CASCADES DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS FRIDAY. THE MAIN IMPACT OF THE RAIN WILL BE FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES ON HALLOWEEN EVENING, WITH RAIN EXPECTED FROM THE CASCADES EAST IN THE EVENING. WEST OF THE CASCADES, EXPECT RAIN DURING THE DAY FOLLOWED BY SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE AREA DURING THE EVENING AS A COLD TROUGH PUSHES INLAND BEHIND THE FRONT. RAINFALL MAY BE SLOW TO TAPER OFF IN THE EVENING IN WESTERN VALLEYS NEAR THE CASCADES SUCH AS THE ROGUE AND SHASTA VALLEYS. ALSO SOME WEST SIDE AREAS MAY SEE A BRIEF BREAK IN RAIN BEFORE LIGHT SHOWERS BEGIN FRIDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. SHOWER ACTIVITY BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY EVENING AND NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED AND MAINLY LIGHT AND MODELS INDICATE MUCH OF THE ENERGY WITH THIS TROUGH WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF THE AREA THE TROUGH DEEPENS. COOL CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THOUGH WITH ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY FRIDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO 4500 TO 5000 FT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SO EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN PASSES. THE COLD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA SATURDAY WITH SOME CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS. THEN THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST SATURDAY EVENING WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND BRINGING DRYING CONDITIONS WITH CLEARING SKIES. .LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE COLDEST MORNING OF THE SEASON THUS FAR WEST OF THE CASCADES IS EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEPARTS TO THE EAST AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. THIS WILL PRESENT THE OPPORTUNITY FOR FROST OVER SOME OF THE VALLEYS IN NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST OREGON. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT WE ARE WELL PAST THE NORMAL DATE OF THE FIRST KILLING FREEZE IN MANY AREAS...SO THIS SHOULDN`T BE UNEXPECTED. MEDFORD`S NORMAL DATE OF A FIRST FREEZE (TEMPERATURES <= 32F) IS OCTOBER 18TH. RIGHT NOW, WE ARE GOING WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S IN MANY LOCATIONS. A LOT WILL DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND WHETHER FOG CAN FORM IN THE VALLEYS PRIOR TO SUNRISE. WE THINK AREAS NORTH OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE AND THE COAST ARE SAFE SINCE THERE SHOULD STILL BE PLENTY OF CLOUDS. BUT ENOUGH CLEARING MAY OCCUR SOUTH OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE FOR FROST TO FORM. KEEP CHECKING BACK FOR UPDATES. MODELS ARE NOW IN AGREEMENT THAT HEIGHTS RISE SUNDAY WITH MOST AREAS DRYING OUT. THERE IS JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST AND NORTH OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS NEAR 60 OVER THE WEST SIDE AND IN THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 EAST SIDE. THE ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE PACIFIC EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT UNCERTAINTY INCREASES A BIT, ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING OF FEATURES. THE 12Z GFS40 DEPICTS A FAST-MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM WITH PRECIPITATION REACHING THE COAST BY MONDAY MORNING THEN MOVING INLAND TO THE EAST SIDE BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS IS FASTER THAN ITS PREVIOUS RUNS AND WAS A DEVIATION FROM ITS 00Z ENSEMBLES, WHICH WERE SLOWER BRINGING IT ONSHORE. THE 12Z ECMWF MEANWHILE IS ABOUT 12 HOURS SLOWER...WITH PRECIPITATION HOLDING OFF UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT THEN SPREADING INLAND TUESDAY. IT IS NOTABLE THAT THE ECMWF HAS SPED UP FROM PREVIOUS RUNS. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY, THE GOING FORECAST WAS LARGELY UNCHANGED, WHICH KEEPS THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS NORTHWEST SECTIONS WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE OR NIL POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST. EXPECT THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL STALL SOMEWHERE NEAR THE OR/CA BORDER TUESDAY, THEN LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS SHOULD DECREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST. OVERALL, TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS. SPILDE && .AVIATION...FOR THE 29/18Z TAF CYCLE...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTH AND WEST SECTIONS OF THE CWA THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN ALONG WITH A MIX OF MVFR/IFR CIGS AND WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. THE FRONT SHOULD LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA AROUND SUNRISE THURSDAY, SO IFR CIGS WILL LIKELY PREVAIL IN THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS THROUGH LATE MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. EAST OF THE CASCADES AND IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, PATCHY IFR FOG/CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AROUND DAYBREAK THURSDAY, BUT SHOULD BECOME VFR BY MID-MORNING. BREEZY SOUTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP SHASTA VALLEY AND EAST SIDE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SPILDE && .MARINE...UPDATED 230 PM PDT WED 29 OCT 2014...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE WATERS TONIGHT AND SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF IT. THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST WINDS WILL STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT, BUT THE LATEST RUC SHOWS WINDS COULD REACH SMALL CRAFT AROUND 12Z THURSDAY OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN WATERS, BUT SUSPECT IT MAY BE OVERDONE. IN FACT, THE NAM SHOWS A WAVE FORMING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THURSDAY WHICH WOULD LEAD TO LESS WIND. FOR NOW WE`LL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES AND SEE WHAT THE NEXT MODEL RUN SHOWS THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INLAND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE WATERS FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS SOUTHWEST OF THE WATERS SATURDAY. THE MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT SHOWING INCREASING LONG PERIOD SWELL FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT IT WON`T LAST LONG WITH SWELL HEIGHTS DECREASING ON SATURDAY. WEST TO NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. -PETRUCELLI && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...NONE. CA...NONE. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE. $$ CC/MD/MAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
1238 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST TODAY...WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING. STRATUS IS SLOW TO CLEAR EARLY THIS MORNING AS WE REMAIN MORE MIXED THAN MOST MODELS SHOW. THE RAP SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THINGS...AND THUS FOLLOWED CLOSEST TO IT AND SLOWED DOWN EXIT OF CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING. THE BACK EDGE OF THE STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH EAST AND BY LATE MORNING MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY. WILL BE ANOTHER COOL DAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S OVER SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA TO THE MID AND UPPER 50S WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER. AN UPPER WAVE WILL QUICKLY PUSH ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THUS EXPECTING INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. BEST QG FORCING DOES GO OVER OUR CWA...HOWEVER BEST MOISTURE STAYS TO THE NORTH. THUS THINKING WE MAINLY JUST SEE CLOUDS AND VIRGA...WITH MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION NOT ABLE TO PUSH THROUGH THE DRY LOWER LEVELS. HOWEVER FORCING IS STRONG ENOUGH THAT CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS REACHING THE GROUND...AND THUS EXPANDED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO INCLUDE MOST LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY STAY IN THE 40S MOST OF THE NIGHT...HOWEVER WITH LIGHT WINDS...READINGS IN ANY CLEAR POCKETS WILL DROP INTO THE 30S. AND WITH MORE WIDESPREAD CLEARING EXPECTED LATE THINK MOST AREAS WILL SEE LOWS IN THE 30S. COLD FRONT WILL MAKE IT TO ABOUT INTERSTATE 29 BY 12Z...AND WITH INCREASED MIXING BEHIND THE FRONT...PROBABLY WILL SEE A SLIGHT WARMING AND A BIT OF A NORTHWESTERLY BREEZE DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE WEST. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014 THURSDAY IS HIGHLIGHTED BY A HASTENING OF THE PACE OF THE NEXT SURGE OF COLD AIR ADVECTION. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER WAVE RAPIDLY DEPARTS BUT IN ITS WAKE...IS A STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVING DOWN FROM WESTERN ONTARIO TO NORTHERN MN. COLD HIGH PRESSURE...CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 1035 AND 1040MB FILLS IN ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THEREFORE THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE A DAY SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAD YESTERDAY...BLUSTERY...COOL... AND WHAT COULD BE PLENTY OF COLD AIR ADVECTION STRATUS FOR MANY AREAS OTHER THAN POSSIBLY OUR MO RIVER VALLEY AREAS. THEREFORE NOTCHED UP THE NORTHERLY WINDS AND FOR TEMPERATURES...THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE VALUES HAVE MARKEDLY COOLED THE HIGHS OFF. NOTICED THAT THE AFTERNOON 900-850MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE NOT A WHOLE LOT DIFFERENT THAN WHAT THEY WERE YESTERDAY. SO BLENDED THE VERY CHILLY BIAS CORRECTED GEM GLOBAL AND BIAS CORRECTED MAV INTO THE CONSENSUS GUIDANCE. THIS COOLED HIGHS OFF INTO THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO MID 50S SOUTH. BUT IF THE STRATUS GETS AS INTRUSIVE AS IT WAS ON TUESDAY...THEN EVEN THESE HIGHS ARE PROBABLY A CATEGORY TOO WARM. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT ARE TRICKY...IN THAT THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL CAUSE SOME LINGERING MIXING POTENTIAL EAST OF INTERSTATE 29. IN ADDITION...THERE IS A QUESTION OF HOW QUICKLY THE FORECAST STRATUS WILL EXIT...AT LEAST IN OUR EASTERN ZONES. WOULD NOT BE AT ALL SURPRISED IF THE STRATUS LINGERS LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED... THEREFORE DID NOT GO WITH THE COLDEST GUIDANCE VALUES ON THURSDAY EXCEPT IN OUR FAR WEST. CONSENSUS VALUES LOOKED PRETTY GOOD FOR OUR EASTERN ZONES...BUT HAVE CLOSE TO 20 DEGREES FOR CHAMBERLAIN AND HURON. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY EXHIBIT A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER FLOW WITH STRONG RIDGING IN THE MIDDLE PART OF THE COUNTRY. FRIDAY WILL BE COOL ONCE AGAIN BUT WITH MUCH LESS WIND AS THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. BUT THEN A TIGHT GRADIENT WILL RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH STOUT WINDS OFF THE SURFACE. WINDY SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 35 MPH SHOULD EASILY PREVAIL ON SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES STILL BELOW NORMAL AS THE COOL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE EAST INFLUENCES OUR WEATHER FOR ANOTHER DAY. THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER INDEX WILL LIKELY REACH THE VERY HIGH CATEGORY ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...AND WILL BE CONVEYED IN THE FORTHCOMING HWO. FOR SUNDAY...CONSENSUS TEMPERATURES LOOKED A LITTLE COOL GIVEN THE ECMWF AND GFS 900MB TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF I 29. THEREFORE BLENDED THE MORE MILD BIAS CORRECTED ECMWF VALUES INTO THE MIX TO BUMP THE READINGS UP A CATEGORY OR TWO. THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE A BIT IN HOW THEY HANDLE THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. AT THIS TIME...THE ECMWF LOOKS A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE GFS. BUT AT ANY RATE...DECENT RAIN CHANCES LOOK MINIMAL AS THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE TAKES OVER AND CUTS OFF THE DEEP MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES LOOK UNEVENTFUL AND CLOSE TO NORMAL ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BUT MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE PRETTY BREEZY AGAIN WITH NORTHWEST WINDS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014 VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD... BUT LOWER CLOUDS FEATURING MVFR CEILINGS WILL CYCLE SOUTHWARD AFTER 12Z BEHIND COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THERE WILL ALSO BE A DISTURBANCE WITH MID LEVEL VFR CLOUDS WHICH WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 02Z AND 10Z. LIFT FORCING WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO RESULT IN AREAS OF PRECIPITATION...BUT MOST IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALOFT. SINCE WILL BE OPERATIONALLY INSIGNIFICANT...HAVE NOT MENTIONED IN THIS SET OF TAFS. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...CHENARD LONG TERM...MJ AVIATION...CHAPMAN