Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 10/29/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1158 AM MDT MON OCT 27 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 856 AM MDT MON OCT 27 2014
UPDATED THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. REDUCED POPS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS TODAY BASED ON WEBCAMS...OBS...AND LATEST 12Z
GUIDANCE. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWERS TODAY WILL BE OVER THE
SAWATCH RANGE. HAVE LOWERED POPS TO BELOW 10 PERCENT FOR THE SW
MTS AND LOWER ELEVATIONS. E OF THE MTS...HAVE RAISED POPS SLIGHTLY
FOR EL PASO COUNTY...AND ALSO INTRODUCED POPS OVER THE LOWER
ARKANSAS VALLEY THIS EVENING. THERE HAS BEEN GOOD CONSISTENCY OVER
THE PAST COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS AMONG SEVERAL OF THE HIGH RES
MODELS...INCLUDING THE HRRR AND NMM...THAT SCT SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP OVER EL PASO COUNTY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...AND THEN SOME BANDED PRECIP ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE LOWER
ARKANSAS FROM AROUND 00-03Z THIS EVENING. MOISTURE LOOKS
LIMITED...BUT PER SOUNDINGS A SATURATED LAYER FROM ROUGHLY H8 TO
H6 SHOULD DEVELOP IN THIS TIME FRAME...AND SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR
SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY. ROSE
UPDATE ISSUED AT 750 AM MDT MON OCT 27 2014
LOADED IN LATEST OBSERVATIONS. TWEAKED SHORT TERM POP AND SKY
COVER GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 447 AM MDT MON OCT 27 2014
...CENTRAL MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS...COOLER...FREEZE WATCH TONIGHT...
A PACIFIC DISTURBANCE IS TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN COLORADO THIS MORNING. RADAR SHOWS SNOW SHOWERS STREAMING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. WEB CAMS AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS CONFIRM WITH THE FREMONT PASS...MONARCH PASS AND
LEADVILLE CAMS ALL SHOWING SNOW ON THE GROUND AND WET ROADS.
ALSO...THE LEADVILLE ASOS HAS REPORTED LIGHT SNOW AT TIMES.
SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST QUICKLY AND SNOWFALL SHOULD ALREADY BE WINDING
DOWN OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BY MID MORNING. AFTER THAT...SOME
VERY SLIGHT PRECIP CHANCES WILL EXTEND EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT ONLY SPOTTY PRECIP AT
BEST...AND MOSTLY JUST AROUND THE PIKES PEAK REGION. SOME OF THE
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME LIGHT PRECIP DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS THIS EVENING...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT TOO HIGH
IN THIS RIGHT NOW AS IT HAS BEEN INCONSISTENT IN THE MODELS AND THE
AMOUNTS BEING DEPICTED ARE VERY LIGHT. BELIEVE IT IS A MODEL
RESPONSE TO SOME UPPER JET ENERGY MOVING THROUGH DURING THE EVENING
HOURS. WHILE SOME CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO THE JET MOVING
THROUGH...IT WOULD TAKE SOME WORK TO MOISTEN UP THE LOWER LEVELS
ENOUGH TO GET APPRECIABLE PRECIP TO THE SURFACE. SO...MAYBE SOME
LIGHT SPOTTY STUFF...BUT PROBABLY NOTHING TOO WIDESPREAD OR
SIGNIFICANT. AS ALWAYS...HOWEVER...LATER SHIFTS WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR TO SEE HOW THINGS EVOLVE THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY.
ONCE THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT...ATTENTION
WILL TURN TO THE FALLING TEMPERATURES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A FREEZE
ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS...WHERE THERE HAS REALLY NOT
BEEN ONE YET THIS FALL. THE SEVERITY OF THE FREEZE WILL BE
CONTINGENT ON THE AMOUNT OF WIND AND CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE PLAINS
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. IF THERE IS TOO MUCH OF EITHER...NOT SO HARD
OF A FREEZE. HOWEVER...IF THE SKIES CLEAR OUT AND THE WINDS GO
LIGHT...THEN THERE COULD BE A HARD...KILLING...FREEZE. WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE FREEZE WATCH FOR NOW. LATER SHIFTS CAN DECIDE
WHETHER OR NOT TO PULL THE TRIGGER ON A FREEZE WARNING WHEN MORE
DATA COMES IN.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 447 AM MDT MON OCT 27 2014
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...COOL NW FLOW ALOFT SETTLES IN ACROSS THE
REGION FOR TUE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...WITH CLEARING
SKIES EXPECTED. VERY COLD TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE FORECAST AREA
TUE MORNING...BUT ONE WILD CARD WILL BE HOW STRONG WINDS WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE PLAINS IN THE MORNING WHICH WOULD AFFECT TEMPS...SO WILL
MAINTAIN THE FREEZE WATCH AT THIS TIME. AFTER SUCH A COLD
START...MAX TEMPS TUE ARE FORECAST TO ONLY WARM TO AROUND 60F FOR
THE PLAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS. AN UPPER RIDGE THEN BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FOR WED AND THU FOR CONTINUE DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS.
TEMPS WED MORN ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO BE CHILLY...SO ANOTHER
WATCH MAY BE ISSUED THEN.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE
STATE AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH...WHICH WILL SHIFT
THE FLOW ALOFT TO A MORE SW DIRECTION THROUGH THE DAY FRI. THIS WILL
DRAW MOISTURE UP INTO WESTERN COLORADO AND PCPN CHANCES RETURN TO
THE HIGHER TERRAIN BEGINNING AFTER MIDNIGHT FRI NIGHT...AND LASTING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EC AND GFS MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS UPPER
TROUGH WILL ONCE AGAIN FOCUS THE ENERGY MOSTLY ACROSS NORTHERN
CO...SO AT THIS TIME ONLY ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED POPS ARE
WARRANTED FOR THE MTS. THE INCREASING SW FLOW SHOULD HELP TO BOOST
TEMPS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS BACK ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS...WITH MAX
TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE MID 70S FOR THE PLAINS FOR BOTH SAT AND SUN.
MOORE
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM MDT MON OCT 27 2014
MAIN AVN CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS ALONG WITH MVFR
CIGS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE. THIS WILL BE MOST LIKELY AT KOS AFTER
20Z AND LASTING THROUGH 06Z. COULD ALSO SEE A FEW SHOWERS AT KCOS
OR VC KCOS. POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP AT KPUB WILL BE MAXIMIZED FROM
21Z THROUGH 04Z...BUT PROB IS TOO LOW TO MENTION EXPLICITLY IN THE
TAF. CIGS SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER 06Z AND LEAD TO VFR FOR THE
BALANCE OF TUESDAY. ROSE
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
COZ085>089-093>098.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...ROSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
906 AM MDT MON OCT 27 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 856 AM MDT MON OCT 27 2014
UPDATED THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. REDUCED POPS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS TODAY BASED ON WEBCAMS...OBS...AND LATEST 12Z
GUIDANCE. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWERS TODAY WILL BE OVER THE
SAWATCH RANGE. HAVE LOWERED POPS TO BELOW 10 PERCENT FOR THE SW
MTS AND LOWER ELEVATIONS. E OF THE MTS...HAVE RAISED POPS SLIGHTLY
FOR EL PASO COUNTY...AND ALSO INTRODUCED POPS OVER THE LOWER
ARKANSAS VALLEY THIS EVENING. THERE HAS BEEN GOOD CONSISTENCY OVER
THE PAST COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS AMONG SEVERAL OF THE HIGH RES
MODELS...INCLUDING THE HRRR AND NMM...THAT SCT SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP OVER EL PASO COUNTY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...AND THEN SOME BANDED PRECIP ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE LOWER
ARKANSAS FROM AROUND 00-03Z THIS EVENING. MOISTURE LOOKS
LIMITED...BUT PER SOUNDINGS A SATURATED LAYER FROM ROUGHLY H8 TO
H6 SHOULD DEVELOP IN THIS TIME FRAME...AND SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR
SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY. ROSE
UPDATE ISSUED AT 750 AM MDT MON OCT 27 2014
LOADED IN LATEST OBSERVATIONS. TWEAKED SHORT TERM POP AND SKY
COVER GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 447 AM MDT MON OCT 27 2014
...CENTRAL MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS...COOLER...FREEZE WATCH TONIGHT...
A PACIFIC DISTURBANCE IS TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN COLORADO THIS MORNING. RADAR SHOWS SNOW SHOWERS STREAMING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. WEB CAMS AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS CONFIRM WITH THE FREMONT PASS...MONARCH PASS AND
LEADVILLE CAMS ALL SHOWING SNOW ON THE GROUND AND WET ROADS.
ALSO...THE LEADVILLE ASOS HAS REPORTED LIGHT SNOW AT TIMES.
SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST QUICKLY AND SNOWFALL SHOULD ALREADY BE WINDING
DOWN OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BY MID MORNING. AFTER THAT...SOME
VERY SLIGHT PRECIP CHANCES WILL EXTEND EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT ONLY SPOTTY PRECIP AT
BEST...AND MOSTLY JUST AROUND THE PIKES PEAK REGION. SOME OF THE
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME LIGHT PRECIP DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS THIS EVENING...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT TOO HIGH
IN THIS RIGHT NOW AS IT HAS BEEN INCONSISTENT IN THE MODELS AND THE
AMOUNTS BEING DEPICTED ARE VERY LIGHT. BELIEVE IT IS A MODEL
RESPONSE TO SOME UPPER JET ENERGY MOVING THROUGH DURING THE EVENING
HOURS. WHILE SOME CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO THE JET MOVING
THROUGH...IT WOULD TAKE SOME WORK TO MOISTEN UP THE LOWER LEVELS
ENOUGH TO GET APPRECIABLE PRECIP TO THE SURFACE. SO...MAYBE SOME
LIGHT SPOTTY STUFF...BUT PROBABLY NOTHING TOO WIDESPREAD OR
SIGNIFICANT. AS ALWAYS...HOWEVER...LATER SHIFTS WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR TO SEE HOW THINGS EVOLVE THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY.
ONCE THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT...ATTENTION
WILL TURN TO THE FALLING TEMPERATURES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A FREEZE
ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS...WHERE THERE HAS REALLY NOT
BEEN ONE YET THIS FALL. THE SEVERITY OF THE FREEZE WILL BE
CONTINGENT ON THE AMOUNT OF WIND AND CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE PLAINS
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. IF THERE IS TOO MUCH OF EITHER...NOT SO HARD
OF A FREEZE. HOWEVER...IF THE SKIES CLEAR OUT AND THE WINDS GO
LIGHT...THEN THERE COULD BE A HARD...KILLING...FREEZE. WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE FREEZE WATCH FOR NOW. LATER SHIFTS CAN DECIDE
WHETHER OR NOT TO PULL THE TRIGGER ON A FREEZE WARNING WHEN MORE
DATA COMES IN.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 447 AM MDT MON OCT 27 2014
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...COOL NW FLOW ALOFT SETTLES IN ACROSS THE
REGION FOR TUE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...WITH CLEARING
SKIES EXPECTED. VERY COLD TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE FORECAST AREA
TUE MORNING...BUT ONE WILD CARD WILL BE HOW STRONG WINDS WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE PLAINS IN THE MORNING WHICH WOULD AFFECT TEMPS...SO WILL
MAINTAIN THE FREEZE WATCH AT THIS TIME. AFTER SUCH A COLD
START...MAX TEMPS TUE ARE FORECAST TO ONLY WARM TO AROUND 60F FOR
THE PLAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS. AN UPPER RIDGE THEN BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FOR WED AND THU FOR CONTINUE DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS.
TEMPS WED MORN ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO BE CHILLY...SO ANOTHER
WATCH MAY BE ISSUED THEN.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE
STATE AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH...WHICH WILL SHIFT
THE FLOW ALOFT TO A MORE SW DIRECTION THROUGH THE DAY FRI. THIS WILL
DRAW MOISTURE UP INTO WESTERN COLORADO AND PCPN CHANCES RETURN TO
THE HIGHER TERRAIN BEGINNING AFTER MIDNIGHT FRI NIGHT...AND LASTING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EC AND GFS MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS UPPER
TROUGH WILL ONCE AGAIN FOCUS THE ENERGY MOSTLY ACROSS NORTHERN
CO...SO AT THIS TIME ONLY ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED POPS ARE
WARRANTED FOR THE MTS. THE INCREASING SW FLOW SHOULD HELP TO BOOST
TEMPS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS BACK ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS...WITH MAX
TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE MID 70S FOR THE PLAINS FOR BOTH SAT AND SUN.
MOORE
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 447 AM MDT MON OCT 27 2014
SNOW SHOWERS WITH MVFR/IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS OVER THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 THIS MORNING...WITH LESS ACTIVITY SOUTH
OF 50. THIS ACTIVITY WILL START TO TAPER OFF AROUND 15Z...AND
PRETTY MUCH END BY 18Z. ONLY VERY SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FLIGHT AREA. THERE COULD BE A SPOTTY
MVFR/IFR/LIFR CONDITION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
A SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS MADE ITS WAY SOUTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER AT
12Z AND SHOULD BE INTO NEW MEXICO BY 15Z. NO WEATHER ALONG THE
FRONT BUT A WIND SHIFT FROM THE WSW AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO NNE BEHIND
IT...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT.
FRONT HAS ALREADY MOVED THROUGH KCOS AND KPUB AND WILL NOT IMPACT
KALS. ALL 3 TAF SITES SHOULD REMAIN VFR NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE IS A
SMALL POSSIBILITY THAT EITHER KCOS OR KPUB COULD SEE A BRIEF SHOWER
MOVE THROUGH EITHER THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING...BUT THE ODDS
ARE QUITE LOW SO NO MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
COZ085>089-093>098.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...LW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
403 PM EDT MON OCT 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...AS A MILDER AIR
MASS BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BRIEFLY BE ABOVE
NORMAL ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE A COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID WEEK PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT...A RATHER DELIGHTFUL LATE AUTUMN AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE REGION AS AMPLE AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE HAS RESULTED IN
AFTERNOON HIGHS WELL INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60F FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS. CI/CS CLOUD COVER WAS ADVECTING INTO THE REGION AS A
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. NEAR TERM
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THIS WARM FRONT BECOMES INCREASINGLY
MORE ACTIVE OVERNIGHT AS ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOW LEVEL JET FAVOR
CLOUDS NOT ONLY INCREASING BUT THE CHANCE FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION.
THE LATEST HRRR REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS SUGGEST SHOWERS MAY IMPACT
LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF I90 OVERNIGHT. UPSTREAM LIGHTNING
ACTIVITY IS CLOSELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UPSTREAM OF
THE CWFA. SHOWALTER VALUES OVERNIGHT ARE INITIALLY NEAR 0C ACROSS
WESTERN/CENTRAL NY AND THOSE VALUES GRADUALLY FILL AS IT
APPROACHES OUR REGION. AT THIS TIME...WE WILL WITHHOLD THE MENTION
OF THUNDER AS WE MONITOR UPSTREAM TRENDS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AND INCREASING CLOUD
COVER WILL BE A BIT MILDER AS WE WILL TREND A BIT WARMER THAN
GUIDANCE /CLOSER THE THE LAMP/LAV HOURLY GUIDANCE/.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH AS OUR REGION BECOMES
WELL ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR. SHOULD BE A SPLENDID DAY
UNFOLDING AS STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT H850 TEMPS
TO BETWEEN +11C TO +15C. COMBINE THAT WITH SUNSHINE AND
DOWNSLOPING...VALLEY LOCATIONS COULD ONCE AGAIN OBSERVE NEAR OR
JUST A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE 70F WITH 60S ELSEWHERE /AND BASED ON
TEMPS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY AFTERNOON...THIS COULD EASILY BE
OBTAINED/.
TUESDAY NIGHT...AS THE PREVIOUS EXCELLENT AFD...VARIABLE TIMING
REMAINS FROM THE NCEP MODEL GUIDANCE WITH THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A COUPLE RUMBLES OF THUNDER WITH THE COLD FRONT. THERE IS
DECENT LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH THE FRONT AS S/SW LLJ OF 40-50
KTS WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION SOME GULF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE.
LATEST TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE ARE SUGGESTING THE FROPA WILL BE A
BIT SLOWER TO CLEAR THE REGION. UPPER FLOW REMAINS POSITIVELY
TILTED WITH A WEAK SURFACE PERTURBATION/REFLECTING DEVELOPING OVER
CENTRAL NY OVERNIGHT. SO WE WILL SLOW DOWN POPS/WX GRIDS AND KEEP
MOST OF THE NIGHT UNDER SCT-LIKELY POPS. LOWS TEMPS WILL BE A BIT
BALMY IN THE LOWER TO M50S...EXCEPT SOME U40S OVER THE SRN
DACKS.
WEDNESDAY...AS A SLOWER FROPA IS EXPECTED...WE WILL SLOW DOWN THE
EXIT OF THIS FRONT AND KEEP THE MENTION OF POPS/WX FOR THE
EASTERN 1/2 OF THE CWFA IN THE MORNING. MEANWHILE...SLOW ADVECTING
COLDER AIR WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE DAY. AS THIS COOLER AIR MOVES
ACROSS THE WARM WATERS OF THE GREAT LAKES...AMPLE STRATUS WILL
REDEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY. THESE VARIABLES WILL RESULT IN A COOLER
DAY THAN TUESDAYS WITH HIGHS AROUND 60F FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND
50S FOR MOST OTHER LOCATIONS /SOME UPPER 40S FOR THE DACKS/.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT CLEARS THE REGION WITH
STRONGER PUSH COLD ADVECTION DURING THE EVENING HOURS. H850 TEMPS
FALL TO 0C ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES TO -4C NORTH AND WEST OF
ALBANY. THIS WILL TRIGGER SOME ISOLD LAKE EFFECT/INDUCED SHOWERS
OVER THE SRN DACKS...SOME OF WHICH MAY MIX WITH SNOW. SOME LAKE
EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO THE WEST-CENTRAL MOHAWK
VALLEY OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE M30S TO L40S FOR MOST OF THE
REGION.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OFF MAINLY QUIET AND MAINLY AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST TO OUR SOUTH THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE AIR WILL BE COOL ENOUGH AND BREEZY ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST
SOME LAKE ENHANCED PRECIPITATION POSSIBLY COMING OFF LAKE
ONTARIO...MAINLY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY.
TEMPERATURES LOOK WARM ENOUGH FOR ANY PRECIPITATION TO BE MAINLY
RAIN WITH ANY SNOW CONFINED TO THE HIGHEST TERRAIN. ANY
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ON THURSDAY WILL BE LIGHT.
MOST OTHER AREAS SHOULD BE DRY WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE (MORE SUN THE
FURTHER SOUTH ONE GOES). TEMPERATURES WILL SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 50S ALBANY SOUTHWARD...BUT ONLY IN THE 40S TO
AROUND 50 FURTHER NORTH AND ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE MAINLY IN THE 30S...TO AROUND 40
LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION.
BY FRIDAY...AN IMPRESSIVE CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING
FROM OUR WEST AND ALOFT...A NEW TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CONUS.
RIGHT NOW...MOST OF FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH
AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS
DEVELOPING LATE IN THE DAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 50 IN THE VALLEYS...40S HIGHER
TERRAIN.
SHOWERS LOOK TO INCREASE ACROSS OUR REGION FRIDAY AS ENERGY FROM THE
CLIPPER TRANSFORMS INTO AN OCEAN STORM BY EARLY SATURDAY. ALOFT AN
UPPER AIR LOW WILL BE CUTTING TO EAST OUR WELL...WHICH WILL CAPTURE
THE SURFACE STORM TO THE EAST OF CAPE COD.
ALL THE 12Z GUIDANCE HAD THIS SURFACE STORM DEVELOPING TOO FAR EAST
TO BRING A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO OUR REGION. HOWEVER...THERE COULD
BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT...WHEN COMBINED THE DEVELOPING TROUGH
DRIVING ENOUGH COLD AIR INTO THE REGION...TO PRODUCE SOME SNOW
ACROSS REGION SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. IT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE
THAT SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW COULD TAKE PLACE...MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS BUT EVEN VALLEY AREAS COULD SEE A LEAST A
LITTLE.
KEEP IN MIND...THIS STORM IS POTENTIALLY FOUR DAYS OUT...AND IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THIS STORM COULD DEVELOP A LITTLE FURTHER WEST. IT
DEFINITELY BEARS WATCHING AS ANY POSSIBLE EARLY SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION COULD PRODUCE PROBLEMS AS MANY TREES FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION SOUTH STILL HAVE A FAIR AMOUNT OF LEAVES ON THEM.
FOR NOW...CONTINUED WITH 40-50 POPS ACROSS OUR REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH AGAIN THE BEST CHANCES FOR SNOW OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT CHANCES FOR AT LEAST SNOW SHOWERS EXIST
EVERYWHERE BY SATURDAY NIGHT.
STORM OR NOT...IT LOOKS AS IF THE COLDEST AIR MASS SINCE LAST APRIL
WILL BE USHERED IN SATURDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. BY
SUNDAY...THE OCEAN STORM LOOKS TO BE SITUATED NEAR NOVA
SCOTIA...PRODUCING A BRISK WIND FLOW. THERE MIGHT BE SOME LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS...BUT THE FLOW AT POINT LOOKED MORE
NORTHWESTERLY (THAN WESTERLY) THIS WOULD IMPLY ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW
BANDS WOULD BE FRAGMENTED ACROSS MAINLY THE ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK
VALLEY ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...IT WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD THEY TAKE PLACE.
THE ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE ON MONDAY.
LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 30S NORTH AND WEST OF
ALBANY ON SATURDAY...40-45 ALBANY SOUTHWARD. TEMPERATURES WILL DIVE
DOWN INTO THE 20S ACROSS MOST PLACES SATURDAY NIGHT. ON
SUNDAY...HIGHS WILL GENERALLY ONLY BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER
THAN SATURDAY. BY MONDAY...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO MODERATE BACK INTO
THE 40S...TO AROUND 50 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD
COUNTY.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF
PERIOD ENDING 18Z TUESDAY. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TO START THE PERIOD
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. THEN HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. CIGS MAY BRIEFLY LOWER TO AROUND 4000-5000 FT AGL AROUND
12Z TUESDAY...BUT SHOULD RISE RATHER QUICKLY ONCE THE WARM FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BE WEST-NORTHWEST AROUND 3-8 KTS...THEN BECOMING NEAR
CALM TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.
A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH MOST AREAS
SOUTH OF I90 REMAINING DRY. A MILD AND DRY DAY SETTING UP FOR
TUESDAY WITH A SOUTHERLY BREEZE OF 10 TO 18 MPH AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. A COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES.
A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND TONIGHT...BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH ARE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY.
THE RH VALUES WILL RECOVERY OVERNIGHT TO BETWEEN 80 AND 100
PERCENT...THEN DROP INTO THE 40-60 PERCENTILE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK.
RIVERS FLOWS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THE NEXT FEW DAYS DESPITE
THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL WILL BE IN THE
TENTH TO HALF OF AN INCH RANGE.
DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR MOST OF THE HSA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATER FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. SOME THE
PRECIPITATION MAY BE RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW DEPENDING ON THE
EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM/WASULA
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSONVILLE FL
815 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014
.UPDATE...SURFACE HIGH OFF THE EAST COAST WITH RIDGE EXTENDING
ACROSS NE FL THIS EVENING. SOUTH TO SW WINDS WILL INCREASE
TONIGHT RIGHT ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER SO DON`T EXPECT WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG LIKE PREVIOUS NIGHTS. THINK STRATUS WITH PATCHY FOG WILL
BE MORE THE CASE TONIGHT. CLOUDS AHEAD OF SLOWLY APPROACHING COLD
FRONT TO THE NW WILL INCREASE OVER SE GA AND PARTS OF NE FL LATER
TONIGHT...SO EXPECT MOST OF FOG TO BE LOCATED OVER AREAS MAINLY
SOUTH OF I-10. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE ABOUT 5
DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHTS READINGS.
&&
.AVIATION...AREAS OF LATE NIGHT FOG ARE EXPECTED AGAIN...BUT
PERSISTENT WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG CONDITIONS ARE LESS IDEAL
COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT DUE TO PASSING CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY ELEVATED
SSW BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS OF 5-10 MPH. EVENING OBSERVATIONS SHOWED
FEW-SCT LOW CLOUDS BETWEEN 4-6 KFT OVER THE FL PENINSULA AND BOTH
THE HRRR AND NAM MODELS ADVERTISE THESE CLOUDS PERSISTING AND
ROTATING NNE ACROSS NE FL OVERNIGHT AS WISPS OF CIRRUS PASSES OVER
SE GA. DESPITE PASSING FEW-SCT CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION PER THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE COMBINED
WITH NEAR CALM WINDS WILL SUPPORT MVFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT...WITH DEVELOPMENT AROUND 03-04Z BASED ON LAST NIGHTS
FOG TRENDS. ADJUSTED IFR TO LIFR FOG TO ONLY TEMPO PERIODS AT THIS
TIME BETWEEN 08-12Z AGAIN BASED ON LAST NIGHTS FOG TRENDS. BY
13-14Z WED LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BREAK TO VFR CONDITIONS WITH
A THICKER CUMULUS FIELD WED COMPARED TODAY. SSW WINDS WILL BACK
SSE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST WITH THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE MID-
LATE AFTN WED.
&&
.MARINE...WINDS LESS THAN 15 KNOTS WILL BE SE THIS EVENING AND
THEN VEER TO THE SW BY MORNING AS SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT TO THE
NW MOVES INTO THE SE STATES. SEAS WILL BE 1 TO 2 FEET.
RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 58 84 58 76 / 0 10 30 20
SSI 66 81 63 75 / 0 0 20 30
JAX 61 83 62 80 / 0 0 10 30
SGJ 66 81 64 78 / 0 0 10 30
GNV 60 84 60 81 / 0 0 10 30
OCF 61 85 60 82 / 0 0 10 30
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
ZIBURA/ENYEDI/WALKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1011 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014
.DISCUSSION...
850 PM CDT
FOR EVENING UPDATE...
ONLY MINOR CHANGE MADE TO GOING FORECAST THIS EVENING WAS TO SLOW
THE CLEARING OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.
SUB-995 MB SFC LOW LIFTING SLOWLY AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS
ONTARIO THIS EVENING...WITH CYCLONIC WEST-NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW
IN ITS WAKE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. SOME DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER
HAS TEMPORARILY OCCURRED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN IL EARLY THIS
EVENING...THOUGH GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ANOTHER STRONG VORT
DIGGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH A
FAIRLY SOLID AREA OF CLOUD COVER AND EVEN A FEW SPRINKLES NOTED OVER
PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND FAR WESTERN WISCONSIN. WITH
APPROACHING VORT AND EXTENSIVE UPSTREAM CLOUD COVER IN CONTINUED LOW
LEVEL COLD ADVECTION REGIME...WOULD EXPECT THAT CURRENT DEVELOPING
HOLES IN CLOUDS WOULD FILL IN AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.
OTHERWISE...TEMP AND WIND TRENDS OF GOING FORECAST APPEAR REASONABLE
AND HAVE MADE NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES EXCEPT FOR SKY COVER.
RATZER
//PREV DISCUSSION...
300 PM CDT
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL CHARACTERIZE THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH AN
INFLUX OF MUCH COLDER AND WELL BELOW NORMAL AIR ARRIVING
FRIDAY/SATURDAY BEFORE THINGS MODERATE EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE CLOSED
UPPER LOW THAT HELPED PUSH A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING IS NOW CENTERED OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND TRACKING
EASTWARD. RATHER LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGING IS MOVING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. AND CANADIAN ROCKIES WITH A SERIES OF LARGER
SCALE TROUGHS OFF THE WEST COAST. OF NOTE IS A WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE FLOW OVER CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA WHICH WILL CROSS THE AREA AND
SET THE STAGE FOR THE BIG COOL DOWN FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE...BROAD
LOW PRESSURE IS OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WITH THE COLD FRONT THAT
PASSED THIS MORNING NOW WELL TO THE EAST.
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...QUIET WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
SUPPORT A STEADY THOUGH NOT TERRIBLY STRONG WESTERLY WIND WHICH WILL
KEEP TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT BUT DO EXPECT THEM TO FALL INTO THE
UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO
NORTHERN QUEBEC BUT ANOTHER TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY AND
SWING ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. THE BULK OF THE ASCENT AND DEEPER
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WILL PASS NORTH OF THE AREA SO AM ONLY
EXPECTING SOME INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS NORTHERN AREA AND THIS
MAY BE MINIMAL. THE TROUGH WILL INTRODUCE ANOTHER MODEST PUSH OF
COLDER MID LEVEL AIR SO HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLDER THAN TODAY
WITH READINGS FROM AROUND 50 NORTH TO THE MID 50S FAR SOUTH. WINDS
WILL TURN NORTHWESTERLY BUT BECOME FAIRLY LIGHT LATE IN THE DAY.
THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR COLDER TEMPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH 30S
FOR ALL AREAS OUTSIDE THE IMMEDIATE DOWNTOWN AREA. THE WAVE OVER
BRITISH COLUMBIA TODAY WILL MAKE ITS WAY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
BE MIXED WITH REGARD TO PRECIP POTENTIAL THURSDAY BUT A FAIRLY DRY
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE IN PLACE SO DRY CONDITIONS COULD PREVAIL. WILL GO
AHEAD AND CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION FOR MOST AREAS FOR NOW. THE
WAVE WILL BRING A PUSH OF WARMER MID LEVEL AIR AHEAD OF IT SO HIGHS
WILL MODERATE INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE RATHER CONSISTENT ON
A STRONG UPPER TROUGH DIGGING STRAIGHT SOUTH FROM NORTHERN CANADA
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL PUSH A RELATIVELY WEAK SURFACE
LOW SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL BE
DEEPENING WITH TIME. A VERY STRONG CANADIAN HIGH BUILDS INTO THE
MID/UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES BEHIND THE
LOW INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. H85 TEMPS ARE STILL FORECAST TO FALL TO
AROUND -8C WITH SOME GUIDANCE TRENDING A LITTLE COLDER. THIS WILL
RESULT IN MUCH COLDER SURFACE AIR SPREADING IN THROUGH THE DAY
FRIDAY WHICH IF TIMING HOLDS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN FALLING TEMPS
THROUGH THE DAY. WHILE IT IS STILL EARLY FOR SPECIFICS DO HAVE A
FEW CONCERNS THAT WILL BEAR WATCHING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS GIVEN
THE SYNOPTIC SET UP. FIRST IS PRECIP. THE BULK OF SYNOPTIC PRECIP
APPEARS TO REMAIN TO THE EAST OF THE AREA WITH THE UPPER LOW
CENTER REMAINING JUST TO THE EAST WITH THE DEFORMATION AXIS PRECIP
LOOKING SHORT LIVED...THOUGH ENOUGH COLD AIR COULD ARRIVE ALLOWING
FOR A MIX OF PRECIP TYPES. NEXT IS LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL. IT WILL
CERTAINLY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT PROCESSES WITH LAKE-H85
DELTA TS OF 18-19 C. ORGANIZATION OF BANDS LOOKS TO BE THE
CHALLENGE WITH WINDS STEADILY COMING AROUND FROM NORTHWEST TO
NORTH WITH SPEEDS POTENTIALLY BEING VERY STRONG THROUGH THE
UNSTABLE LAYER. IN ADDITION...WITH THE STRONG HIGH BUILDING IN
INVERSION HEIGHTS MAY QUICKLY FALL PUTTING AN END TO ANY
MEANINGFUL PRECIP...ESPECIALLY BY THE TIME A DUE NORTH FETCH
FAVORING STRONG CONVERGENCE OVER THE LAKE SETS UP FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING. LAKE PRECIP TYPE WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN
AND BE DEPENDENT ON LOW LEVEL TEMPS BUT IF PRECIP CAN OCCUR AFTER
DARK FRIDAY THEN IT COULD BE ALL FROZEN. GIVEN THE TIME RANGE AND
THE POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTORS WILL CARRY LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
AREAS NEAR THE LAKE FAVORED BY A NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHEAST WIND.
ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY STRONG WIND GUSTS
ALONG THE LAKESHORE...AS WELL AS LARGE WAVES IMPACTING THE
SHORELINE THANKS TO THE LONG FETCH OF NORTH WIND. AGAIN...TOO
EARLY TO PIN DOWN DETAILS BUT THE ABOVE CONCERNS ARE HIGHLIGHTED
GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC EXPECTATIONS. THINGS QUIET DOWN SATURDAY AS THE
HIGH MOVES IN LEAVING HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S.
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST SUNDAY
WITH A SHARP UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST BRINGING A PUSH
OF WARMER AIR. A LARGE TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE WEST AND GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW THIS SPLITTING WITH A TROUGH TRACKING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND INTO MANITOBA INTO MONDAY. THIS
WILL PUSH THE UPPER RIDGE EAST BUT THE ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW WILL
BRING A COLD FRONT TO THE AREA SOME TIME MONDAY OR TUESDAY. WITH THE
PARENT LOW SO FAR TO THE NORTH THE FRONT MAY SLOW AND STALL NEAR THE
AREA. SUNDAY SHOULD SEE HIGHS MODERATE A BIT WITH HIGHS INTO THE 50S
MONDAY. PRECIP TIMING WILL BE DICTATED BY THE TIMING OF THE EXPECTED
FRONT.
MDB
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 03Z...
* GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WEDNESDAY. CMS
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z...
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE GRADIENT
SLOWLY WEAKENS BETWEEN DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN
ONTARIO AND APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS. SPEEDS MAY
DIP INTO 7-10KT RANGE OVERNIGHT BUT WILL INCREASE AGAIN WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS THE LOW LEVELS BEGIN TO MIX...WITH GUSTS INTO THE MID
TO UPPER TEEN KT RANGE. AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO SPREAD SOUTHEAST
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...GUSTS WILL DIMINISH IN THE AFTERNOON AND
THEN SPEEDS WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH TO 5 KTS OR LESS WEDNESDAY
EVENING.
BKN/OVC 4-6KFT CIGS MAY LOWER INTO THE 3-4KFT RANGE LATER THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT BUT WITH SOME HOLES SHOWING UP OVER SOUTHERN
WI...CONFIDENCE REGARDING HOW PREVAILING BKN CIGS REMAIN OVERNIGHT
IS LOW...BUT SHOULD REMAIN VFR. CMS
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 03Z...
* HIGH FOR WINDS THRU THE PERIOD. CMS
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
* THURSDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. LIGHT WEST WINDS.
* FRIDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. STRONG/GUSTY NORTH WINDS.
* SATURDAY...DRY/VFR. NORTHEAST WINDS.
* SUNDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. SOUTH WINDS.
* MONDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...
345 PM CDT
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARDS
SOUTHEAST ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE COLDER AIR FILTERS ACROSS
THE LAKE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. DESPITE THIS LOW MOVING TOWARDS JAMES
BAY TONIGHT...DO EXPECT A FAIRLY TIGHT SURFACE PATTERN TO REMAIN
OVER THE LAKE. WINDS TO 30 KT WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE ENTIRE
LAKE TONIGHT...WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS REMAINING A POSSIBILITY AS
WELL. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A SMALL WINDOW LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING...CONSISTING OF A COUPLE OF HOURS...WHEN MORE
PREVAILING GALES MIGHT BE OBSERVED. THIS DURATION WILL ONCE AGAIN
BE SHORT...AND WITH GUSTS MORE LIKELY TO BE OBSERVED. SO HAVE NOT
ISSUED ANY GALE HEADLINE FOR THIS EVENING...BUT HAVE CONTINUED
GALE FORCE GUST MENTIONING IN THE GLF. WITH THE LOW FURTHER
DEPARTING TO THE NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING NEAR THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY...DO EXPECT DIMINISHING WINDS ACROSS THE LAKE.
THIS DIMINISHING TREND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY...BEFORE
ATTENTION SHIFTS TOWARDS POSSIBLE STRONG WIND EVENT ON FRIDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY...WHILE
MUCH COLDER AIR AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILD IN BEHIND IT. THIS
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR POTENTIALLY VERY STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS
OVER THE ENTIRE LAKE. THIS SYSTEM WARRANTS CLOSE MONITORING AS
HIGH END GALES ARE APPEARING A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR STORM FORCE WINDS ALSO THERE.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 4 AM
WEDNESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 10 AM
WEDNESDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
859 PM CDT Tue Oct 28 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 855 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014
Weak shortwave seen on the water vapor loop over central Missouri
has brought an increase in high level cloud cover over most of our
area this evening. That feature expected to push to our east after
midnight taking most of the clouds with it. With the cloud cover
over most of the area this evening, temperatures have been a bit
slower to fall off but expect that to change when the cirrus deck
shifts off to our east after midnight. Have made some minor tweeks
to the cloud cover and winds for this evening with the rest of the
forecast looking on target. Will send out an update to address the
minor changes by 910 pm.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014
Cold front has moved well southeast of the region this afternoon
with cooler air filtering into the Midwest. Overnight weather
anticipated to be quiet and cool. Temperatures on the cooler side
of guidance with clearing skies and efficient radiational cooling
through the night. Though the gusts will lessen after
midnight...pressure gradient winds out the of the west will stay up
around 7-10 mph. Additional shortwave diving into the larger trof to
the north bringing some potential low clouds into the northern
portion of the state, but expected to remain scattered in Peoria and
Bloomington and have a negligible impact.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014
Quiet weather expected overall across central and southeast Illinois
for the next few days. However, conditions should trend more active
toward the beginning of the next work week. Temperatures through the
next week will average below normal, a change from the above normal
levels seen for much of October. These cooler than normal
temperatures should be at their coldest late Friday night/early
Saturday morning, likely resulting in the first hard freeze of the
fall locally.
Northwest upper level flow will persist into the weekend, helping to
keep cool conditions in place. A weak disturbance in the flow,
currently over the Pacific Northwest/Southwest Canada, is progged to
arrive around Thursday. The models have been generating a little
rainfall with this disturbance, but the dry airmass it will be
moving through should keep precipitation to a minimum.
A reinforcing shot of cold air will follow Thursday`s disturbance.
This, combined with a chilly Canadian surface high, will produce
good radiational cooling conditions for Friday night and a likely
hard freeze by early Saturday morning.
A progressive ridge will build across the area by late in the
weekend, providing a slight moderation in temperatures. This ridge
will be followed by a wave of Pacific origin, and likely bring more
widespread rain to the region by Monday into Tuesday. The models
differ quite a bit in the details, but there is a hint that the
precipitation threat may linger for a few days as the accompanying
surface front parallels the upper flow and stalls before leaving the
area.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
ISSUED AT 600 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014
VFR conditions are expected thru this forecast period (00z Thu).
Some low VFR cigs skirting just to our north early this evening
with some broken to overcast cirrus moving northeast into parts
of central Illinois. Latest HRRR forecast indicates the stratocu
deck to our north will gradually thin out and dissipate later
this evening to our north while the high level clouds will shift
off to our east late tonight as an upper level trof shifts across
the forecast area. Forecast soundings showing some scattered cumulus
developing by late morning with bases around 3500-4500 feet. Surface
winds will be westerly tonight at 5 to 10 kts and west to northwest
at 10 to 15 kts.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Smith
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...Bak
AVIATION...Smith
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
649 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014
.DISCUSSION...
300 PM CDT
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL CHARACTERIZE THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH AN
INFLUX OF MUCH COLDER AND WELL BELOW NORMAL AIR ARRIVING
FRIDAY/SATURDAY BEFORE THINGS MODERATE EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE CLOSED
UPPER LOW THAT HELPED PUSH A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING IS NOW CENTERED OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND TRACKING
EASTWARD. RATHER LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGING IS MOVING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. AND CANADIAN ROCKIES WITH A SERIES OF LARGER
SCALE TROUGHS OFF THE WEST COAST. OF NOTE IS A WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE FLOW OVER CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA WHICH WILL CROSS THE AREA AND
SET THE STAGE FOR THE BIG COOL DOWN FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE...BROAD
LOW PRESSURE IS OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WITH THE COLD FRONT THAT
PASSED THIS MORNING NOW WELL TO THE EAST.
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...QUIET WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
SUPPORT A STEADY THOUGH NOT TERRIBLY STRONG WESTERLY WIND WHICH WILL
KEEP TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT BUT DO EXPECT THEM TO FALL INTO THE
UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO
NORTHERN QUEBEC BUT ANOTHER TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY AND
SWING ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. THE BULK OF THE ASCENT AND DEEPER
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WILL PASS NORTH OF THE AREA SO AM ONLY
EXPECTING SOME INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS NORTHERN AREA AND THIS
MAY BE MINIMAL. THE TROUGH WILL INTRODUCE ANOTHER MODEST PUSH OF
COLDER MID LEVEL AIR SO HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLDER THAN TODAY
WITH READINGS FROM AROUND 50 NORTH TO THE MID 50S FAR SOUTH. WINDS
WILL TURN NORTHWESTERLY BUT BECOME FAIRLY LIGHT LATE IN THE DAY.
THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR COLDER TEMPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH 30S
FOR ALL AREAS OUTSIDE THE IMMEDIATE DOWNTOWN AREA. THE WAVE OVER
BRITISH COLUMBIA TODAY WILL MAKE ITS WAY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
BE MIXED WITH REGARD TO PRECIP POTENTIAL THURSDAY BUT A FAIRLY DRY
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE IN PLACE SO DRY CONDITIONS COULD PREVAIL. WILL GO
AHEAD AND CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION FOR MOST AREAS FOR NOW. THE
WAVE WILL BRING A PUSH OF WARMER MID LEVEL AIR AHEAD OF IT SO HIGHS
WILL MODERATE INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE RATHER CONSISTENT ON
A STRONG UPPER TROUGH DIGGING STRAIGHT SOUTH FROM NORTHERN CANADA
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL PUSH A RELATIVELY WEAK SURFACE
LOW SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL BE
DEEPENING WITH TIME. A VERY STRONG CANADIAN HIGH BUILDS INTO THE
MID/UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES BEHIND THE
LOW INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. H85 TEMPS ARE STILL FORECAST TO FALL TO
AROUND -8C WITH SOME GUIDANCE TRENDING A LITTLE COLDER. THIS WILL
RESULT IN MUCH COLDER SURFACE AIR SPREADING IN THROUGH THE DAY
FRIDAY WHICH IF TIMING HOLDS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN FALLING TEMPS
THROUGH THE DAY. WHILE IT IS STILL EARLY FOR SPECIFICS DO HAVE A
FEW CONCERNS THAT WILL BEAR WATCHING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS GIVEN
THE SYNOPTIC SET UP. FIRST IS PRECIP. THE BULK OF SYNOPTIC PRECIP
APPEARS TO REMAIN TO THE EAST OF THE AREA WITH THE UPPER LOW
CENTER REMAINING JUST TO THE EAST WITH THE DEFORMATION AXIS PRECIP
LOOKING SHORT LIVED...THOUGH ENOUGH COLD AIR COULD ARRIVE ALLOWING
FOR A MIX OF PRECIP TYPES. NEXT IS LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL. IT WILL
CERTAINLY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT PROCESSES WITH LAKE-H85
DELTA TS OF 18-19 C. ORGANIZATION OF BANDS LOOKS TO BE THE
CHALLENGE WITH WINDS STEADILY COMING AROUND FROM NORTHWEST TO
NORTH WITH SPEEDS POTENTIALLY BEING VERY STRONG THROUGH THE
UNSTABLE LAYER. IN ADDITION...WITH THE STRONG HIGH BUILDING IN
INVERSION HEIGHTS MAY QUICKLY FALL PUTTING AN END TO ANY
MEANINGFUL PRECIP...ESPECIALLY BY THE TIME A DUE NORTH FETCH
FAVORING STRONG CONVERGENCE OVER THE LAKE SETS UP FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING. LAKE PRECIP TYPE WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN
AND BE DEPENDENT ON LOW LEVEL TEMPS BUT IF PRECIP CAN OCCUR AFTER
DARK FRIDAY THEN IT COULD BE ALL FROZEN. GIVEN THE TIME RANGE AND
THE POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTORS WILL CARRY LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
AREAS NEAR THE LAKE FAVORED BY A NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHEAST WIND.
ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY STRONG WIND GUSTS
ALONG THE LAKESHORE...AS WELL AS LARGE WAVES IMPACTING THE
SHORELINE THANKS TO THE LONG FETCH OF NORTH WIND. AGAIN...TOO
EARLY TO PIN DOWN DETAILS BUT THE ABOVE CONCERNS ARE HIGHLIGHTED
GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC EXPECTATIONS. THINGS QUIET DOWN SATURDAY AS THE
HIGH MOVES IN LEAVING HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S.
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST SUNDAY
WITH A SHARP UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST BRINGING A PUSH
OF WARMER AIR. A LARGE TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE WEST AND GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW THIS SPLITTING WITH A TROUGH TRACKING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND INTO MANITOBA INTO MONDAY. THIS
WILL PUSH THE UPPER RIDGE EAST BUT THE ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW WILL
BRING A COLD FRONT TO THE AREA SOME TIME MONDAY OR TUESDAY. WITH THE
PARENT LOW SO FAR TO THE NORTH THE FRONT MAY SLOW AND STALL NEAR THE
AREA. SUNDAY SHOULD SEE HIGHS MODERATE A BIT WITH HIGHS INTO THE 50S
MONDAY. PRECIP TIMING WILL BE DICTATED BY THE TIMING OF THE EXPECTED
FRONT.
MDB
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 00Z...
* GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS THIS EVENING AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY. CMS
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z...
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE GRADIENT
SLOWLY WEAKENS BETWEEN DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN
ONTARIO AND APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS. SPEEDS MAY
DIP INTO 7-10KT RANGE OVERNIGHT BUT WILL INCREASE AGAIN WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS THE LOW LEVELS BEGIN TO MIX...WITH GUSTS INTO THE MID
TO UPPER TEEN KT RANGE. AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO SPREAD SOUTHEAST
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...GUSTS WILL DIMINISH IN THE AFTERNOON AND
THEN SPEEDS WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH TO 5 KTS OR LESS WEDNESDAY
EVENING.
BKN/OVC 4-6KFT CIGS MAY LOWER INTO THE 3-4KFT RANGE LATER THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT BUT WITH SOME HOLES SHOWING UP OVER SOUTHERN
WI...CONFIDENCE REGARDING HOW PREVAILING BKN CIGS REMAIN OVERNIGHT
IS LOW...BUT SHOULD REMAIN VFR. CMS
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 00Z...
* HIGH FOR WINDS THRU THE PERIOD. CMS
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
* THURSDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. LIGHT WEST WINDS.
* FRIDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. STRONG/GUSTY NORTH WINDS.
* SATURDAY...DRY/VFR. NORTHEAST WINDS.
* SUNDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. SOUTH WINDS.
* MONDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...
345 PM CDT
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARDS
SOUTHEAST ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE COLDER AIR FILTERS ACROSS
THE LAKE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. DESPITE THIS LOW MOVING TOWARDS JAMES
BAY TONIGHT...DO EXPECT A FAIRLY TIGHT SURFACE PATTERN TO REMAIN
OVER THE LAKE. WINDS TO 30 KT WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE ENTIRE
LAKE TONIGHT...WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS REMAINING A POSSIBILITY AS
WELL. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A SMALL WINDOW LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING...CONSISTING OF A COUPLE OF HOURS...WHEN MORE
PREVAILING GALES MIGHT BE OBSERVED. THIS DURATION WILL ONCE AGAIN
BE SHORT...AND WITH GUSTS MORE LIKELY TO BE OBSERVED. SO HAVE NOT
ISSUED ANY GALE HEADLINE FOR THIS EVENING...BUT HAVE CONTINUED
GALE FORCE GUST MENTIONING IN THE GLF. WITH THE LOW FURTHER
DEPARTING TO THE NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING NEAR THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY...DO EXPECT DIMINISHING WINDS ACROSS THE LAKE.
THIS DIMINISHING TREND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY...BEFORE
ATTENTION SHIFTS TOWARDS POSSIBLE STRONG WIND EVENT ON FRIDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY...WHILE
MUCH COLDER AIR AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILD IN BEHIND IT. THIS
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR POTENTIALLY VERY STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS
OVER THE ENTIRE LAKE. THIS SYSTEM WARRANTS CLOSE MONITORING AS
HIGH END GALES ARE APPEARING A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR STORM FORCE WINDS ALSO THERE.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 10 AM
WEDNESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 4 AM
WEDNESDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
605 PM CDT Tue Oct 28 2014
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014
Cold front has moved well southeast of the region this afternoon
with cooler air filtering into the Midwest. Overnight weather
anticipated to be quiet and cool. Temperatures on the cooler side
of guidance with clearing skies and efficient radiational cooling
through the night. Though the gusts will lessen after
midnight...pressure gradient winds out the of the west will stay up
around 7-10 mph. Additional shortwave diving into the larger trof to
the north bringing some potential low clouds into the northern
portion of the state, but expected to remain scattered in Peoria and
Bloomington and have a negligible impact.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014
Quiet weather expected overall across central and southeast Illinois
for the next few days. However, conditions should trend more active
toward the beginning of the next work week. Temperatures through the
next week will average below normal, a change from the above normal
levels seen for much of October. These cooler than normal
temperatures should be at their coldest late Friday night/early
Saturday morning, likely resulting in the first hard freeze of the
fall locally.
Northwest upper level flow will persist into the weekend, helping to
keep cool conditions in place. A weak disturbance in the flow,
currently over the Pacific Northwest/Southwest Canada, is progged to
arrive around Thursday. The models have been generating a little
rainfall with this disturbance, but the dry airmass it will be
moving through should keep precipitation to a minimum.
A reinforcing shot of cold air will follow Thursday`s disturbance.
This, combined with a chilly Canadian surface high, will produce
good radiational cooling conditions for Friday night and a likely
hard freeze by early Saturday morning.
A progressive ridge will build across the area by late in the
weekend, providing a slight moderation in temperatures. This ridge
will be followed by a wave of Pacific origin, and likely bring more
widespread rain to the region by Monday into Tuesday. The models
differ quite a bit in the details, but there is a hint that the
precipitation threat may linger for a few days as the accompanying
surface front parallels the upper flow and stalls before leaving the
area.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
ISSUED AT 600 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014
VFR conditions are expected thru this forecast period (00z Thu).
Some low VFR cigs skirting just to our north early this evening
with some broken to overcast cirrus moving northeast into parts
of central Illinois. Latest HRRR forecast indicates the stratocu
deck to our north will gradually thin out and dissipate later
this evening to our north while the high level clouds will shift
off to our east late tonight as an upper level trof shifts across
the forecast area. Forecast soundings showing some scattered cumulus
developing by late morning with bases around 3500-4500 feet. Surface
winds will be westerly tonight at 5 to 10 kts and west to northwest
at 10 to 15 kts.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...Bak
AVIATION...Smith
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
936 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 930 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014
EVENING UPDATE FOR SKY COVER AND OVERNIGHT TEMPS. CLOUD DECK
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA HANGING ON LONGER THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...AND IS BEING MODELED WELL BY THE RAP LOW
LEVEL RH PROGS. THIS MODEL MAINTAINS THE EVENING TREND OF AN
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE CLOUDS...GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80. HAVE ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT TEMPS TO DAMPEN THE
PREVIOUS NORTH TO SOUTH GRADIENT. IF THE OVERCAST DECK IS
MAINTAINED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS
WILL BE NEEDED TO WARM TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTH.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014
CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE STRONG LOW IN SOUTHERN CANADA IS COMBINING
WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION...TO BRING A BRISK FALL DAY...WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES NORTH AND MOSTLY CLEAR SOUTH TO THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES AT 2 PM ARE NEAR 50 NORTH AND NEAR 60 SOUTH. A 15 TO
25 MPH WIND IS MAKING IT FEEL SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014
LOOKING AT VISIBLE SATELLITE...THERE IS A DEFINITE DIURNAL CHARACTER
TO THE STRATUS/STRATOCUMULUS OVER THE SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF IOWA...AND
WE ARE SEEING HOLES WITH DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE DAKOTAS AS WELL.
THIS DIURNAL NATURE OF THE CLOUD DECK OVER HEAD...AND THE ONE
ADVECTING TOWARD THE REGION SHOULD ALLOW FOR SIGNIFICANT CLEARING BY
SUNSET. MODELS SWEEP THE MAIN STRATUS DECK TO TO THE NORTH AWAY FROM
THE CWA BY MIDNIGHT IN ANY CASE...THUS A MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR NIGHT
IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN UP AROUND 8 TO 12 MPH...HIGH
ENOUGH TO KEEP US FROM DROPPING TO THE 20S...BUT NON THE LESS WE
WILL BE QUITE CHILLY...WITH LOWS OF THE LOWER 30S NORTHWEST TO
AROUND 37 SOUTHEAST.
WEDNESDAY...AFTER A CHILLY START...WE WILL HAVE A CHILLY DAY. WHILE
THE CONDITIONS SHOULD NOT BE AS BRISK AS TODAY...A MORNING WINDS
AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH WILL DECREASE TOWARDS AFTERNOON TO AROUND 5 TO
10...RESULTING IN A MUCH MORE PLEASANT DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE QUITE COOL...WITH HIGHS ONLY AROUND 50 NORTH TO MID
50S FAR SOUTH.
ERVIN
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014
FORECAST FOCUS ON MUCH COLDER WEATHER BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
THURSDAY...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE CWA BUT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE
QUITE DRY. THEREFORE...THIS LOOKS TO BE EITHER SPRINKLES OR ISOLATED
LIGHT SHOWERS WITH MAINLY A TRACE EVENT AND WILL MAINTAIN THE 20 POP.
FRIDAY...OPERATIONAL MODELS SIMILAR IN SHOWING A POTENT
TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION NOTED. 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROP TO -9C IN OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES BY 12Z FRIDAY. CAN`T RULE OUT SOME FLURRIES LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A PERIOD OF STRATUS
CLOUDS. COLDER AIR WILL BE USHERED INTO THE CWA ON NORTH WINDS
GUSTING TO 30 TO 35 MPH. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE ONLY
IN THE 40S MAKING FOR A COLD AND WINDY HALLOWEEN.
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SLIDE INTO THE
CWA WITH A WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZE EXPECTED AS WE FLIP THE CALENDAR
TO NOVEMBER. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO
PLUMMET INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S AT MANY LOCATIONS. SOME COLD
DRAINAGE LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY IN THE WAPSI VALLEY MAY DROP TO AROUND
20. WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY THERE WILL BE FULL
SUNSHINE BUT ANOTHER COLD DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AGAIN.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE HIGH SHIFTS WELL TO OUR EAST WITH
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE
MIDWEST WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HOWEVER...LOW
CONFIDENCE THIS FAR OUT IN REGARD TO TIMING/INTENSITY/PLACEMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM. FOR NOW WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE IN THE 50S WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S.
HAASE
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014
LOW VFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO SCATTER OUT THIS EVENING WITH A
WESTERLY WIND REMAINING UP IN THE 7-9 KT RANGE...THEN INCREASING
AROUND 12KT WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RP KINNEY
SYNOPSIS...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...RP KINNEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
252 PM MDT MON OCT 27 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM MDT MON OCT 27 2014
UPPER FLOW WILL BE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SUBSIDENCE WILL PRODUCE
DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FA THROUGH TUESDAY. POPS FOR TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY WILL BE NIL.
RADAR RETURNS ACROSS THE FA TODAY HAVE BEEN VERY LIGHT WITH METARS
REPORTING HIGH CLOUD BASES AND NO PRECIPITATION. THE HRRR SHOWS A
BAND OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER AN AREA IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES
THIS EVENING SO WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SPRINKLES THERE.
THIS IS AN AREA WHERE THERE IS FRONTOGENESIS BUT MOISTURE IS LIMITED.
THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE IF THERE WILL BE A HARD FREEZE TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL DECREASE AND BECOME LIGHT FROM THE WEST ALONG WITH
CLEARING. MOST OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE GIVES LOW TEMPERATURES AROUND
30 IN EASTERN COLORADO WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
REST OF THE FA. THERE IS A LEAST ONE GUIDANCE THAT SHOWS
TEMPERATURES AROUND 29 DEGREES IN EASTERN COLORADO AND WITH THE MET
SHOWING 21 DEGREES FOR LIC, CANNOT RULE OUT A HARD FREEZE IN WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN COLORADO ZONES. PLAN TO UPGRADE THE FREEZE
WATCH TO A WARNING IN EASTERN COLORADO AND THEN GO WITH A FROST
ADVISORY ACROSS THE REST OF THE FA. SEE UPDATED HIGHLIGHTS BELOW.
MAX TEMPERATURES TUESDAY SHOULD WARM TO THE LOWER 60S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM MDT MON OCT 27 2014
FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...QUIET WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE WEEK BEFORE THE NEXT WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH.
MAIN CONCERNS AS IT STANDS RIGHT NOW IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
WINDS ON SATURDAY.
BEGINNING WITH TUESDAY NIGHT...COLD LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
ONCE AGAIN. FOR THIS NIGHT...MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE FROST ONCE
AGAIN BUT LOCATIONS AROUND MCCOOK...OBERLIN AND NORTON MAY
APPROACH FREEZE WARNING CRITERIA...28 DEGREES OR LESS. WITH THE
CURRENT FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES OUT...WILL NOT ISSUE ADDITIONAL
HAZARD HEADLINES BUT THEY MAY BE NEEDED FROM TONIGHTS SHIFT OR
TOMORROWS DAY SHIFT.
FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
TRANSLATES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...LEAVING THE REGION PRECIPITATION-
FREE. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES OVER THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES INTO
THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY...FORCING A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
THROUGH. THIS WILL LEAD TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY.
WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S BEFORE
COOLING OFF THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOW DEWPOINTS SHOULD REMAIN FOR
LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM MCCOOK NEBRASKA TO TRIBUNE
KANSAS...RESULTING IN RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE 15-20 PERCENT RANGE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS ARE FORECAST SO CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS. THE
ONLY QUESTION THAT REMAINS IS HOW ACTIVE WILL WE BE? MODELS ARE
INDICATING A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES
AND EJECTING OVER THE PLAINS BUT DISAGREE ON TIMING/MOVEMENT. WE ARE
GETTING INTO THE SEASON WHERE THESE TYPES OF TROUGHS NEED TO BE
MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER DEVELOPMENT. THE CANADIAN
MODEL DEVELOPS A STRONG MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE SATURDAY OVER NORTHERN
NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA BEFORE HEADING INTO NORTH DAKOTA. THE GFS
INDICATES A SECOND...STRONGER LOBE OF ENERGY MOVING ACROSS OUR
REGION WITH POTENTIAL FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION ON
THE BACK SIDE. THESE TWO SOLUTIONS RAISE THE ALERT FLAG ON A
POTENTIAL SECOND SNOW OF THE YEAR. GLANCING AT THE TEMPERATURES...IT
APPEARS TOO WARM FOR SNOW AT THIS TIME. THE EUROPEAN MODEL INDICATES
A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS WELL...BUT WELL TO THE NORTH...
BEGINNING IN COLORADO/WYOMING BEFORE MOVING NORTH TOWARDS CANADA.
NEEDLESS TO SAY...THIS SYSTEM NEEDS TO BE MONITORED BUT FORECAST
GUIDANCE VARIANCE IS TOO GREAT TO MAKE ANY DEFINITIVE PREDICTIONS ON
WHETHER A LARGER SYSTEM IMPACTS THE TRI-STATE AREA.
ONE THING ALL GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
WINDS SATURDAY. WITH A DEEP LEE TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE AND A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT...A RESULTANT STRENGTHENING
OF THE WIND FIELD IS GUARANTEED. THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS ARE
MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE WINDS AND SHOW POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
GUSTS...POSSIBLY 45-55 MPH. WIND FIELDS AT 1 KM AND 700 MB INDICATE
THERE COULD BE SOME GUSTS EVEN STRONGER BUT WAS NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH
TO PLACE MENTION OF THIS IN PRODUCTS YET.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT MON OCT 27 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KGLD AND KMCK FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. METARS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME BROKEN CLOUDS
AROUND 7KFT THIS AFTERNOON AS DYNAMICS FROM THE UPPER TROUGH MOVE
THROUGH. OTHERWISE CLEARING IS EXPECTED AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT MDT /1 AM CDT/ TONIGHT TO 10 AM MDT
/11 AM CDT/ TUESDAY FOR KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
CO...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM MDT TUESDAY FOR
COZ090>092.
NE...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT MDT /1 AM CDT/ TONIGHT TO 10 AM MDT
/11 AM CDT/ TUESDAY FOR NEZ079>081.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...FS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1151 PM MDT SUN OCT 26 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM MDT SUN OCT 26 2014
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW RIDGE CENTERED
OVER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND TROUGH BUILDING SOUTH INTO THE
WESTERN US. SW FLOW IS IN PLACE OVR THE CENTRAL ROCKIES/NORTHERN
PLAINS WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER OUR CWA. AT THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT IS MOVING OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO
WITH A WARM FRONT OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA. SURFACE TROUGH HAS SHIFTED
EAST WITH LIGHT NW LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS OUR CWA.
PRECIP TONIGHT-MONDAY...GUIDANCE SHOWING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
TONIGHT FROM NW TO SE THROUGH SUNRISE. MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
PASS ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY WITH BETTER FORCING OVER OUR CWA
ALONG THE SOUTHERN AXIS OF THIS TROUGH BETWEEN THE MID-MORNING TO
EARLY AFTERNOON PERIOD. LIMITING FACTOR FOR PRECIPITATION TONIGHT
AND MONDAY CONTINUES TO BE A VERY DRY AIR MASS THAT WILL HAVE TO BE
OVERCOME FOR ANY PRECIPITATION TO REACH THE GROUND. BY MIDDAY MONDAY
SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE A SATURATED LAYER WITHIN 4-8KFT AGL...HOWEVER
THERE IS STILL A DRY LAYER BELOW THIS WITH TD DEPRESSIONS 30-40F.
THERE IS SOME WEAK INSTABILITY WITHIN THIS LAYER...WHICH COULD
SUPPORT A FEW MODERATE SHOWERS...WHICH COULD REACH THE SURFACE AS
MEASURABLE RAINFALL. SEEMS LIKELY WE WILL SEE VIRGA AND MAYBE
SCATTERED SPRINKLES...AND ONLY ISOLATED 0.01-0.05" AMOUNTS OUT OF
THIS EVENT. KEPT NW TO SE TIMING FROM 06Z TONIGHT THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON MONDAY...LIMITING POPS TO 20 BASED ON LIMITED CONFIDENCE
ON MEASURABLE PRECIP.
WIND/RH THIS AFTERNOON-MONDAY...LOW SURFACE TD VALUES ALREADY
ADVECTING EAST HAVE ALLOWED RH VALUES TO DROP TO NEAR 15
PERCENT...HOWEVER WITH WINDS ALREADY BACKING OFF AND STRONGER GUSTS
(20-25KT) LIMITED TO THE FAR NW WHERE IS HIGHER RED FLAG CONDITIONS
ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY. SURFACE TD WILL CONTINUE TO DROP THROUGH
THE DAY MONDAY...HOWEVER WITH COOLING AIR MASS AND HIGHS IN THE
50S/60S RH VALUES WILL NOT DROP TO NECESSARY LEVELS FOR RED FLAG
WARNING. WINDS ON THE OTHER HAND WILL INCREASE AS COLD FRONT DROPS
SOUTH...AND WITH MIXING TO AROUND 800MB WE SHOULD SEE GUSTS 30-40
MPH MONDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. ADVISORY CRITERIA IS NOT
CURRENTLY EXPECTED BASED ON CURRENT GFS/NAM MIXING HEIGHTS/850-775MB
WINDS. IF WE WERE TO MIX TO 700MB MAYBE WE COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS IN
THE 45-48 MPH RANGE...HOWEVER THE WOULD BE MOST LIKELY WITH
VIRGA/LIGHT SHOWERS AND NOT A WIDESPREAD THREAT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM MDT SUN OCT 26 2014
UPPER FLOW WILL BE NORTHWEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THIS TIME.
SUBSIDENCE AND LACK OF MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE FA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DYNAMICS FROM THE EXITING TROUGH SHOULD
BE OUTSIDE OF THE FA BY MONDAY EVENING. POPS WILL BE NIL THROUGH
THIS PART OF THE FORECAST.
FROST POTENTIAL LOOKS GOOD FOR MONDAY NIGHT WITH A HARD FREEZE
POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST
KANSAS...WEST OF HIGHWAY 27. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR FROST
AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT BUT A HARD FREEZE IS NOT EXPECTED SINCE
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS COLD. PLAN ON ISSUING A FREEZE WATCH
FOR LATE MONDAY NIGHT IN COORDINATION WITH BOU AND PUB OFFICES. SEE
DETAILS BELOW.
MIN TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 20S WEST
OF HIGHWAY 27 WITH LOWER TO MID 30S EAST ACROSS THE KANSAS ZONES.
MIN TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE MID 30S. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE LOWER 60S.
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 70S ARE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY.
IN THE EXTENDED...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FA THROUGH SUNDAY AS A RIDGE
BUILDS EAST FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS. BY SUNDAY UPPER FLOW
TURNS SOUTHWEST AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO
THE NORTH PLAINS. SINCE MOISTURE IS TOO FAR NORTH CHANCES ARE VERY
SLIM FOR ANYTHING MEASURABLE IN THE FA. CONSEQUENTLY, POPS WILL BE
NIL SUNDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL WARM TO THE
LOWER 70S BY SUNDAY AS 850 TEMPERATURES WARM TO AROUND 20C. MIN
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S WILL WARM TO THE LOWER 40S BY
SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM MDT SUN OCT 26 2014
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT MCK AND GLD.
WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST AND INCREASE FOLLOWING
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION. EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME GUSTY BETWEEN
08Z- 10Z...INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING...AND CONTINUE THROUGH
23Z- 01Z MONDAY AFTERNOON. ALSO EXPECT A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR
VIRGA TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY...BUT
HAVE NOT INCLUDED THEM IN THE TAF AS THEY WILL NOT BE A PREVAILING
CONDITION.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
KSZ001-013-027.
CO...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
COZ090>092.
NE...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
NEZ079.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...LOCKHART
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
1145 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014
.SYNOPSIS.../ISSUED AT 418 PM/
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN ONTARIO WILL LIFT INTO
NORTHERN QUEBEC TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE LOW WILL DRAW COLDER AIR
INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL BE QUITE
GUSTY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUING WEDNESDAY. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES BY HALLOWEEN
MORNING...SENDING TEMPERATURES PLUNGING AND BRINGING A ROUND OF RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM.../ISSUED AT 418 PM/...TONIGHT
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER WRN
LAKE SUPERIOR WITH A PROMINENT DRY SLOT BRINGING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...DEEP WRAP-
AROUND MOISTURE AND COLDER AIR INTO UPPER MI AND NRN WI WITH 850 MB
TEMPS IN THE -1C TO -3C RANGE WAS MOVING TOWARD THE AREA.
TONIGHT...EXPECT CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY INCREASE INTO THIS
EVENING...PER SATELLITE TRENDS AND MODELS 900-850 MB RH FCST.
AS THE COLDER AIR AND DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVE AFT 06Z WITH 850/700
TEMPS DROPPING TO NEAR -4C/-10C...SCT/NMRS LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS FAVORED BY
UPSLOPE WRLY FLOW. OVER ERN UPPER MI...WITH WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS
FALLING BELOW 1400 FT AGL...A MIX WITH SNOW WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
CLOUDS AND PERSISTENT WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING OFF TOO
FAR WITH MIN READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S INLAND AND LOWER 40S CLOSER
TO THE GREAT LAKES.
WEDNESDAY...PCPN CHANCES PEAK BY MID MORNING WITH COVERAGE
DIMINISHING DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE 700 MB THERMAL TROUGH
DEPARTS ALONG WITH THE MORE FAVORABLE 850/700 MB MOISTURE AND A WEAK
SFC RIDGE BUILDS IN. UNDER CLOUDY SKIES...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY
REACH THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014
...MUCH COLDER WEATHER WITH A POSSIBLE MINOR SNOWFALL TO CLOSE OUT
OCTOBER...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...A RELATIVELY TRANQUIL START TO THE
FORECAST PERIOD IS EXPECTED AS THE AREA SITS UNDER A BENIGN REGION OF
A BROAD MID-LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC. AN INACTIVE
UPPER-LEVEL JET PATTERN COMBINED WITH MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES DO NOT
SUPPORT ANY LARGE-SCALE LIFT THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...LAKE-H8 DELTA TEMPS OF 12 TO 14C WILL SUPPORT A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF LINGERING LAKE EFFECT PRECIP OFF LAKE MI FOR THE NW WIND
BELTS. LOW-LEVEL TEMPS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL RAIN
INITIALLY IN THE EVENING...BUT A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH CONTINUED
LOW-LEVEL CAA AND LOWERING SFC WET BULB TEMPS. THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE
THE SAME...THOUGH ANY SNOW SHOULD TRANSITION BACK TO RAIN FOR ALL
AREAS WITH DAYTIME HEATING. OVERALL...IT WILL JUST BE A CLOUDY DAY
WITH WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 40S.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE WEATHER
WILL BE IN THE WORKS BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG MID-LEVEL
TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE TROUGH
AXIS WILL REACH WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AROUND 03Z FRIDAY AS A SFC LOW
BEGINS DEVELOPING OVER THE CWA. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN HOW
THE MODELS HANDLE THIS DEVELOPMENT. THE ECMWF SHOWS A STRONGER
TROUGH...AND THUS A QUICKER DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW OVER THE STRAITS.
THE MODEL SOLUTIONS DO BEGIN TO CONVERGE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH A
1009 MB LOW JUST NORTH OF LAKE ERIE AND A 1035 MB HIGH ACROSS MN.
VERY STRONG MID-LEVEL Q-VECTOR CONV PAIRED WITH A POTENT UPPER-LEVEL
PV ANOMALY WILL SUPPORT DEEP LIFT ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY MORNING.
CONTINUED STRONG LOW-LEVEL CAA AND MID-LEVEL COOLING WILL BRING
WET-BULB ZERO TEMPS TO UNDER 1KFT AGL BY 09Z FRI ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...AND 12Z FRI NEAR THE SHORES. WITH THAT SAID...ACCUMULATING
SNOW APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS AT LEAST THE HIGH TERRAIN FRIDAY MORNING.
AMPLE LIFT WITHIN THE DGZ WILL SUPPORT DECENT SNOW RATIOS AND
MODERATE SNOWFALL RATES. GIVEN THE TIME OF DAY...SNOWFALL RATES
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME WARMER ROAD SFC TEMPS AND RESULT IN
SOME SLUSH ON LESS TRAVELED ROADS. OVERALL...AROUND AN INCH OF WET
SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH A DUSTING POSSIBLY
REACHING THE SHORELINES.
TO ADD TO THE PRECIP...THE STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING
INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS THOUGH THE DAY. THE GRADIENT FLOW WILL BE
ASSISTED BY A STRONG ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT DUE TO THE DEEPENING LOW
OVER THE AREA. WIDESPREAD 15 TO 25 MPH WINDS LOOK POSSIBLE...WITH
SOME GUIDANCE INDICATING GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35 MPH DURING THE LATE
MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON.
DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL EXIT DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE
TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS LOWER MI. FOCUS TURNS TO
LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL AS H8 TEMPS AROUND -10C PRODUCE DELTA TEMPS OF
AT LEAST 15C. DUE NORTH WINDS THROUGH H8 SHOULD KEEP ALL BUT THE FAR
WEST AND FAR EAST CWA CLEAR OF ANY APPRECIABLE LAKE-EFFECT RAIN/SNOW.
FRIDAY NIGHT THOUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE SFC HIGH OVER MN FRIDAY
WILL REACH THE CWA BY SATURDAY EVENING. AN INFLUX OF MUCH DRIER
LOW-LEVEL AIR WILL CUTOFF LAKE EFFECT PRECIP FRIDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY
NIGHT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE QUITE CHILLY DEPENDING ON HOW QUICK
LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS EXIT THE AREA. AM NOT CONFIDENT ON WIDESPREAD
CLEARING...BUT SOME AREAS SHOULD SEE ENOUGH REDUCTION IN CLOUD COVER
TO ALLOW FOR RAPID COOLING LATE IN THE NIGHT. GIVEN STARTING TEMPS
IN THE 30S ON FRIDAY...SHOULD SEE LOWS WELL INTO THE 20S INLAND.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE SFC
RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE CWA AND A MID-LEVEL RIDGE APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. SATURDAY NIGHT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT...BUT LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL COMMENCE OVERNIGHT WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE SFC RIDGE.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE WORKS OVER THE CWA BY
SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING QUIET CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MAY
BE ENOUGH TO INDUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA...BUT
FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS BY WAY OF A JET AXIS AND H5 TROUGH
AXIS STAY TO THE NORTHWEST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014
AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL WRAP BACK INTO NRN MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY AS A REINFORCING COLD FRONT SWEEPS THRU THE AREA.
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERIODICALLY DROP TO MVFR AS
SCT/NMRS LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS IMPACT NW LWR MICHIGAN TAF
SITES OVERNIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY. W/SW WINDS GUSTING TO 15 TO 25 KTS
OVERNIGHT WILL SHIFT TO THE NW ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
&&
.MARINE.../ISSUED AT 418 PM/
ALTHOUGH PEAK WINDS SHOULD REMAIN JUST SHY OF GALE CRITERIA FOR MOST
AREAS TONIGHT...THOUGH AS IS TYPICAL IN THESE SITUATIONS...A COUPLE
OF GALE GUSTS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE AT TIMES. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE WATERS. THOSE LIGHT WINDS
CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY BUT WITH ANOTHER BURST OF HIGHER WINDS
EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS SOME VERY COLD AIR DROPS INTO
THE REGION.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LHZ345-346-349.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LHZ347-348.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ323-341.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ342-344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ322.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ321.
&&
$$
AVIATION...MR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1257 AM EDT MON OCT 27 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW UPR RDG OVER
CENTRAL NAMERICA BLDG TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LKS BTWN SLOWLY DEPARTING
CLOSED LO OVER SE CANADA AND ANOTHER DEEP TROF OVER THE W. AT THE
SFC...HI PRES RDG AXIS AND DRY AIRMASS SHOWN ON THE 12Z INL/MPX
RAOBS...WHERE 12Z PWAT WAS 0.25-0.30 INCH...ARE PRESSING EWD THRU
THE UPR LKS...BRINGING MOSUNNY SKIES TO UPR MI. SOME SC LINGERS OVER
THE FAR E UNDER LLVL NW FLOW/THERMAL TROF AHEAD OF THE RDG AXIS...
AND SOME CI SPILLING OVER THE UPR RDG AXIS TO THE NE OF H85 WARM FNT
IN THE NRN PLAINS IS MOVING INTO THE W. DEEPENING SFC LO PRES IS
MOVING SLOWLY E THRU THE NRN PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF THE WRN TROF...BUT
OVERALL DRYNESS OF THE AIRMASS IN THE NRN PLAINS HAS PREVENTED ANY
PCPN AND EVEN MUCH CLD COVER SO FAR. 12Z H85 TEMPS WERE AOA 20C IN
THE NCENTRAL PLAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS LO.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUSED ON CLD/PCPN TRENDS
ASSOCIATED WITH APRCHG WARM FNT.
TNGT WL START OFF MAINLY CLEAR WITH JUST SOME SCT HI CLDS...BUT THEN
CLDS WL THICKEN THRU THE NGT WITH DVLPG WAD BTWN HI PRES RDG
DEPARTING TO THE E AND LO PRES MOVING TOWARD LK WINNIPEG AND NE OF
ATTENDANT WARM FNT MOVING NE THRU WI. ALTHOUGH LINGERING LLVL DRY
AIR AND PASSAGE OF SHARPER H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC TO THE NW MAY TEND TO
LIMIT POPS...FCST DEEP ISENTROPIC ASCENT WITH VIGOROUS H85-5
MOISTENING LIFTING PWAT TOWARD ARND AN INCH OR 225 PCT OF NORMAL
OVER THE W BY 12Z MON...BAND OF FCST H85-7 FGEN TO THE NE OF THE H85
WARM FNT AND INCRSG UPR DVGC JUSTIFY BUMPING POPS UP A BIT OVER THE
W HALF LATE. BUT OVERALL INITIAL DRYNESS OF THE AIRMASS WARRANTS A
FCST OF NO HIER THAN HI CHC POPS. MAINTAINED MENTION OF SOME THUNDER
OVER THE W LATER AT NGT...WHEN MID LVL LAPSE RATES ARE FCST TO
STEEPEN AND FCST SDNGS INDICATE MUCAPE UP TO 500 J/KG. THE STEEPER
MID LVL LAPSE RATES FCST ARE REASONABLE GIVEN THE VERY HI H85 TEMPS
OBSVD IN THE PLAINS TODAY. DESPITE THE EXPECTED INCRSG CLDS/MSTR...
DRYNESS OF THE AIRMASS IN PLACE SUGGESTS LOWERING FCST LO TEMPS A
BIT. EXPECT THE LOWEST MIN TEMPS TOWARD THE LO END OF GUIDANCE OVER
THE INTERIOR E...WHERE CLDS WL INCRS LATEST. HOURLY TEMPS FCST WL
SHOW RELATIVELY EARLY MINS WITH RISING READINGS LATER TNGT UNDER THE
INCRSG/THICKENING CLDS.
MON...INCRSD POPS TO LIKELY ON MON MRNG OVER THE E HALF WHERE MODELS
SHOW INCRSG UPR DVGC/BAND OF H85-7 FGEN AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT
COINCIDENT WITH INCRSG PWAT UP TO ABOUT 215 PCT OF NORMAL. MODEL
FCST SDNGS INDICATE MUCAPE 500-1000 J/KG WHEN LIFTING FM ARND H8 ON
MON. GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF THIS ELEVATED INSTABILITY...NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION THERE COULD BE SOME HAIL UNDER ANY STRONGER STORM.
ARRIVAL OF DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC/MID LVL DRYING AND CAPPING W-E IN
THE AFTN FOLLOWING EXIT OF THE UPR DVGC/FGEN BAND WL DIMINISH THE
POPS. TENDED TOWARD THE LO END OF GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS ON MON
GIVEN HI SFC-H85 STABILITY/CLDS N OF SFC WARM FNT. ADDED A MENTION
OF SOME FOG LATE IN THE DAY OVER THE CENTRAL WITH INCRSGLY MOIST
UPSLOPE LLVL SE FLOW UNDER MID LVL DRYING IN ADVANCE OF SLOWLY
APRCHG WARM FNT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014
THE FORECAST FOR MON NIGHT/TUE REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN DUE TO
MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY /AND RESULTING
CYCLOGENESIS/ ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION. THE REAL DIFFERENCES ARE DUE TO THE PLACEMENT OF THE
SHORTWAVE. THE GFS KEEPS THE BEST ENERGY FARTHER N...RESULTING IN
THE DRY SLOT BEING OVER THE CWA MUCH OF MON NIGHT AND TUE. ON THE
OTHER HAND...THE NAM IS MUCH FARTHER S...RESULTING IN A DEEPER SFC
LOW THAT MOVES FROM CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN TO ERN UPPER MI...WHICH
MEAN MORE RAIN. THE ECMWF IS BETWEEN THE NAM AND GFS AND ONLY BRINGS
THE DRY SLOT INTO FAR SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...RESULTING IN A
WETTER FORECAST THAN THE GFS. VERY DIFFICULT TO LEAN TOO FAR ONE WAY
OR ANOTHER AT THIS POINT GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY
AND SFC CYCLOGENESIS...SO WILL GO WITH A CONSENSUS BLEND.
ADDITIONALLY...TUE WILL END UP BEING GUSTY...BUT THE EXTENT OF SUCH
DEPENDS LARGELY ON THE TRACK/STRENGTH OF THE SFC LOW...SO HARD TO
GET TOO SPECIFIC ON EXPECTED GUSTS AT THIS POINT. THE KEWEENAW
SHOULD SEE THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER UPPER MI DUE TO THE FAVORABLE
WLY WINDS DIRECTION.
TUE NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT...THE SYSTEM THAT MOVED THROUGH ON TUE WILL
MOVE INTO NRN QUEBEC BY LATE WED AS A SFC RIDGE MOVES TO THE WRN
CWA. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IMPROVES DURING THIS TIME AS CONDITIONS
TRANSITION TO A MORE FAVORABLE LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED RAIN/SNOW
SETUP...WHICH ENTAILS LESS MODEL VARIABILITY IN THIS CASE. BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NW...BUT WILL START TO BACK TO THE W
/FROM W TO E/ ON WED AFTERNOON AS THE RIDGE MOVES IN. THERE WILL BE
AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE
PREVIOUS SYSTEM INTO WED MORNING...BUT DRIER AIR WILL START TO
BECOME MORE DOMINANT ON WED. AS FOR TEMPS...850MB TEMPS WILL FALL
FROM AROUND -2C AT 00Z WED TO AROUND -6C AT 12Z WED. DURING THE DAY
ON WED...850MB TEMPS WILL FALL A COUPLE OF DEGREES OVER ERN LAKE
SUPERIOR WHILE WARMING A COUPLE OF DEGREES OVER THE WRN LAKE.
OVERALL...LOOKS LIKE A GOOD SETUP FOR LAKE EFFECT RAIN...WITH SNOW
BECOMING MORE LIKELY IN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN LATE TUE NIGHT AND
TO A LESSER EXTENT ON WED. SHOULD SEE A DIMINISHING TREND TO PRECIP
ON WED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WRN CWA. DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE ANY
SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.
STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY FOR LATE IN THE WEEK GIVEN POOR MODEL RUN
TO RUN CONTINUITY AND MODEL DISAGREEMENT...COMBINED WITH THE USUAL
CAVEATS WITH SHORTWAVES 5 DAYS OUT. THE GFS BRINGS THE SHORTWAVE
RIGHT ACROSS THE CWA...WHILE THE ECMWF MOVES THE SHORTWAVE FARTHER
SW. IN ANY CASE...MODELS HAVE SHOWN POOR RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY WITH
THE SHORTWAVE ITSELF...SO SYNOPTIC PRECIP IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.
THANKFULLY...THERE IS HIGHER CONFIDENCE WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW DUE TO
MODEL AGREEMENT ON NNW LOW LEVEL WINDS AND 850MB TEMPS AOB -10C FOR
MUCH OF FRI AND POSSIBLY INTO FRI NIGHT. THE LES SHOULD RAMP UP THU
NIGHT WHEN THE COLDER AIR SURGES INTO THE AREA /DEPENDENT ON
SHORTWAVE TIMING AS WELL/ AND SHOULD DIMINISH FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AS
A SFC RIDGE MAY SHIFT ACROSS THE CWA. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS IN NNW WIND SNOWBELTS EVEN IF THE SHORTWAVE DOES NOT
DIRECTLY IMPACT THE CWA...BUT WOULD BE GREATER IF THE SHORTWAVE DOES
IMPACT THE AREA. SHOULD ALSO BE WINDY FOR AT LEAST A SHORT PERIOD
THU NIGHT INTO FRI /DEPENDING ON THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE
SHORTWAVE/ AS A 1030MB SFC HIGH MOVES FROM THE WNW FAIRLY QUICKLY
BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE. SHOULD SEE A QUICK PERIOD OF GALES FROM THE
EVENT...BUT WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL THINGS BECOME MORE CERTAIN TO
GET TOO SPECIFIC ON WINDS SPEEDS.
SHOULD SEE ANY REMAINING LAKE EFFECT PRECIP DIE OUT/MOVE OUT ON SAT
AS MODELS SHOW THE SFC HIGH SHIFT E OF THE CWA. WILL RUN WITH A
CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...WHICH WILL SHOW A
WARMING TREND AS AN UPPER RIDGE PUSHES IN FROM THE W.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1257 AM EDT MON OCT 27 2014
WELL IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT...SCT-NMRS SHRA WILL
SPREAD INTO THE UPPER LAKES OVERNIGHT. SOME TSTMS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED...BUT POTENTIAL OF TSTMS OCCURRING AT ANY OF THE TERMINALS
CONTINUES TO BE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN FCST. INITIALLY...VFR
CONDITIONS AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW UNDER VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL DELAY
DEVELOPMENT OF LOWER CIGS...BUT AS INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR FLOWS INTO
THE AREA...EXPECT CIGS TO FALL TO MVFR TODAY AND THEN TO IFR THIS
EVENING. SHRA WILL CONTINUE TO BE SCATTERED AROUND THE AREA THRU THE
DAY AND INTO THE EVENING. FINALLY...MAINTAINED MENTION OF LLWS AT
KIWD OVERNIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL JET NOSES INTO WRN UPPER MI BEFORE
DECREASING SOMEWHAT AS IT SHIFTS E.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL LEAD TO DECREASING WINDS
TODAY. AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD WITH WINDS LESS THAN 20 KTS WITH THE
HIGH PRESSURE...SE WINDS INCREASE TO 30 KTS OVER MAINLY EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR ON MONDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. ONCE
THIS LOW MOVES TO THE EAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR ON TUESDAY...WEST WINDS
TO 30 KTS AND POSSIBLY UP TO GALE FORCE OF 35 KTS WILL DEVELOP LATE
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT NORTHWEST AND STAY
UP TO 30 KTS INTO WEDNESDAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING TO LESS
THAN 25 KTS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK...POSSIBLY LEADING TO GALES TO 35
KTS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...TITUS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS DULUTH MN
717 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 717 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014
MAJOR DEEP-LAYER CYCLOGENESIS IS WELL UNDERWAY THIS EVENING TO THE
NORTHEAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR. 500 MB LOW HAS NOW TRANSLATED EAST OF
THE DLH CWA /CENTERED NEAR LAKE NIPIGON AS OF 00Z/..AND BENT-BACK
INVERTED SURFACE TROF THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROWAL REGION OF
THIS CYCLONE IS STARTING TO COLLAPSE TO THE SOUTHEAST. IR
SATELLITE AND CANADIAN RADAR DATA IS NOW INDICATING THAT THE FAR
WESTERN EDGE OF THE LARGE SCALE DEFORMATION ZONE OVER MUCH OF
ONTARIO IS SAGGING SOUTHWARD AT AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH..AND WILL MOVE
SOUTHWARD INTO FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT LIFT/COOLING TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW WITH
THIS PRECIP BAND AS IT AFFECTS AREAS GENERALLY EAST OF THE HIGHWAY
53 CORRIDOR. WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR THINGS RATHER CLOSELY THIS
EVENING..AS THERE IS AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SLUSHY
INCHES OF ACCUMULATION IN A FEW PLACES DURING THE MAX INTENSITY OF
PRECIP..WHCIH SHOULD OCCUR ROUGHLY BETWEEN 8 PM AND 2 AM.
ELSEWHERE FARTHER SOUTH..THERE HAVE BEEN MANY REPORTS OF LIGHT
SNOW MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN FOR SHORT PERIODS OF TIME ACROSS THE
SW TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA. KDLH CC/ZDR DATA SUGGESTS THAT THE
AMBIENT FREEZING LEVEL IS ONLY A FEW HUNDRED FEET AGL..AND IT
APPEARS AS THOUGH ANY SMALL SCALE ENHANCEMENT TO PRECIP RATES IS
SUFFICIENT TO RESULT IN LOCAL DIABATIC COOLING UNDERNEATH SMALL
SCALE HEAVIER SHOWERS TO ALLOW A MIX OR ALL SNOW TO REACH THE
GROUND. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS LOBE
OF RADAR ECHOES TRANSLATES ESEWD. HOWEVER..WITH SURFACE TEMPS IN
THE MID 30S/RELATIVELY WEAK SNOWFALL RATES..AND WARM AMBIENT
GROUND TEMPS..ABOUT ALL THE ACCUMULATION THAT IS EXPECTED IN AREAS
FARTHER SOUTH IS SOME CRUSTING ON VEHICLES AND OTHER ELEVATED AND
EXPOSED SURFACES.
WE HAVE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST TO REFLECT THE
MORE SNOWY SOLUTION ACROSS THE NORTH..ALONG WITH HIGHER POPS AND
SIGHTLY COLDER TEMPS. UPDATES ARE ALREADY AVAILABLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014
TONIGHT...THE LARGE SCALE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP
SFC/MID LVL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL KEEP A CANOPY OF LOW CLOUDS AND
PRECIP OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT. AS MID LVL LOW MIGRATES EAST...THE
SFC TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTH FROM ONTARIO THIS EVENING. PTYPE WILL
TRANSITION TO A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW AND PERHAPS A PERIOD OF WET SNOW.
VERY TOUGH TO DETERMINE POTENTIAL AMOUNTS THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS IS
DUE TO THE MARGINAL BDRY LYR THERMAL PROFILES AND DEPENDENCY OF
DIABATIC COOLING/SNOW PRODUCTION UPON AREAS OF ENHANCED VERTICAL
MOTION. HI-RES PTYPE OUTPUT FROM HRRR IS RATHER SLOW TO MAKE THE
TRANSITION TO FROZEN PRECIP OVERNIGHT. THE NAM12/RUC13 ARE FASTER IN
COOLING THE NEAR SFC LAYER SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT THAT GREAT. GIVEN
THAT SNOW HAS BEEN OCCURRING JUST WEST OF THE REGION DURING THE
DIURNAL WARM PERIOD...WOULD THINK THAT WITH ADVENT OF NOCTURNAL BDRY
LYR COOLING...WE SHOULD SEE THE TRANSITION OCCUR IN MOST OF NE MN
ZONES BY MID/LATE EVENING. SOME LOCATIONS MAY SEE UP TO AN INCH ON
ELEVATED DECKS OR GRASSY SURFACES. THE PROBABILISTIC PRODUCTS FROM
SREF AND NARRE-TL FAVOR THE ARROWHEAD AND THE GOGEBIC RANGE FOR
SOME ACCUMULATION. GUSTY WINDS WILL REMAIN BASED ON BUFKIT MOMENTUM
PROFILES SUPPORTED BY THE PRESENCE OF A FAIRLY LARGE SFC PRESS
GRADIENT OVER THE CWA UNTIL EARLY MORNING.
TOMORROW...GRADUAL CLEARING OCCURS FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE SFC/MID
LVL LOWS SHIFT WELL EAST OF THE REGION. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER DRYING
IS FCST...MAJORITY OF NWP SUGGESTS RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN
A SHALLOW LAYER NEAR 2K TO 3K FT. WILL MAINTAIN A MOSTLY CLOUDY
FCST FOR NOW. PRECIP SHOULD EVENTUALLY DIMINISH EXCEPT OVER ERN
EDGE OF CWA.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014
A WEAK MID LEVEL S/W AND ASSOCIATED INVERTED SFC TROUGH WILL TRACK
EWD THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST WED NIGHT/THUR MORNING AND PRODUCE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW THROUGH THE REGION. A MORE POTENT
UPPER S/W WILL DROP IN FROM THE NORTH AND USHER IN ADDITIONAL HIGHER
CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS THUR AFTERNOON...EVENTUALLY CHANGING OVER
TO ALL SNOW THUR NIGHT AND FRI MORNING. THE TRACK OF THE LOW...FROM
NRN MANITOBA SEWD THROUGH WRN ONTARIO AND INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES
WILL ALLOW THE BULK OF THE PRECIP TO FALL ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE LARGE SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE WILL
OCCUR OVER WRN ONTARIO...CLIPPING THE ARROWHEAD AND IN THROUGH NRN
WI AND EWD INTO THE U.P. OF MICH. A SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE REGION AS THE S/W MOVES THROUGH AND MODIFIES THERMAL
PROFILES ENOUGH TO CHANGE THE RAIN SHOWERS OVER TO SNOW LATE
THURSDAY...AND ESPECIALLY THUR NIGHT/FRI MORNING. COULD SEE AROUND 1
INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATE OVER THE ARROWHEAD...WITH TRACE AMTS AROUND
THE TWIN PORTS. THE AREA EXPECTING TO SEE THE MOST WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE ACROSS THE SNOW BELT REGION OF ASHLAND AND IRON COUNTIES
WHERE LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL ALLOW A QUICK 1-2 INCHES TO FALL DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FAVORABLE NORTH WINDS AND STEEP/MOIST BL LAPSE
RATES WILL ALL CONTRIBUTE TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER SNOW AMTS IN THIS AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN QUICKLY FROM THE WEST ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST DURING THE REST OF THE DAY FRIDAY AND
FURTHER EWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES FRI NIGHT/SAT MORNING. ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THIS HIGH...A SWLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY
ACROSS THE REGION AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE
ROCKIES DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. WILL START TO SEE THE INFLUENCE FROM
THIS NEXT SYSTEM FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN. THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SLIGHTLY EARLY IN THE PERIOD...AND THEN WARM
GRADUALLY THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL TOP
OUT IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER
30S. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL DROP INTO THE 30S...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND SLIGHTLY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS BACK
INTO THE 40S AND LOWS IN THE 30S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 717 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014
WRAP AROUND PRECIP/CLOUDS AND WEAKENING DEFORMATION ZONE BEHIND
DEPARTING CYCLONE WILL ROTATE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE DULUTH TAF
SITES THIS EVENING..WHILE GRADUALLY WEAKENING OVERNIGHT. LIGHT
RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL AFFECT KDLH/KHYR/KBRD FOR THE FIRST
4-6 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. A MORE SUSTAINED BAND OF SNOW
WILL AFFECT KINL THROUGH 07Z..AND MAY SAG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO
AFFECT KHIB. PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY END 06-12Z TIME FRAME AT ALL
TAF SITES..AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY AFTER 12Z AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT WEAKENS. HOWEVER..BKN-OVC MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 33 41 33 43 / 70 20 10 20
INL 31 39 30 40 / 70 20 10 30
BRD 31 43 33 47 / 30 10 10 10
HYR 34 44 32 47 / 50 10 10 30
ASX 35 44 33 47 / 70 30 10 30
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ121-
146>148.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ144-145.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ140>143.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MILLER
SHORT TERM...CANNON
LONG TERM...HUYCK
AVIATION...MILLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
949 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 949 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014
CLOUD CONTINUE TO CLEAR SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST. UPDATED SKY
GRIDS TO KEEP CLOUDS ACROSS THE EAST MOST OF THE NIGHT. WHERE
SKIES HAVE CLEARED IN THE WEST...TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN QUICKLY
INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES HERE.
STILL MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG CENTRAL AS STRATUS CLEARS WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES REMAINING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 649 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014
STRATUS DECK CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
EVENING. THE SOUTHWEST HAS CLEARED WITH NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL
EXPECTED TO CLEAR WEST TO EAST THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. KEPT A MENTION OF
PATCHY FOG ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STRATUS DECK LATER TONIGHT
WITH LIGHT WINDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014
CLOUD TRENDS THROUGH TONIGHT AND A WARMER DAY ON WEDNESDAY HIGHLIGHT
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.
THE RAP AND HRRR HAVE HANDLED THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS WELL THROUGHOUT
TODAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND WILL FOLLOW THEIR MOST RECENT
ITERATIONS FOR CLOUD COVER THROUGH TONIGHT...NAMELY THEIR 18-19 UTC
RUNS. STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY ERODE FAR SOUTHWEST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...NOT CLEARING THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY UNTIL CLOSER TO 12
UTC WEDNESDAY MORNING. DID ADD AREAS OF FOG ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA TONIGHT ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STRATUS WHERE WINDS
BECOME CALM. WILL ALSO CONTINUE THE PATCHY DRIZZLE MENTION
DOWNSTREAM OF LAKE SAKAKAWEA EARLY THIS EVENING WITH STREAMERS
CONTINUING TO COME OFF THE LAKE. RETURN FLOW COMMENCES TONIGHT
ACROSS THE WEST AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA. THIS
FRONT WILL PROPAGATE THROUGH THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 50S...WITH POSSIBLY A
FEW READINGS IN THE 60S ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT...GENERALLY
ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS AREA WIDE AS A WEAK IMPULSE INTERACTS WITH THE
FRONT.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014
A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS A SLOW
MODERATING TREND GETS UNDERWAY...FOLLOWED BY A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. MUCH COLDER AIR CAN BE EXPECTED LATE
IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL. A
HEADLINE MAY BE WARRANTED IN THE FUTURE IF THE SNOW/WINDS MAINTAIN
CONSISTENCY IN FUTURE RUNS.
AN EXITING LOW PRESSURE WEDNESDAY EVENING OVER THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY WILL PROVIDE FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH 06Z
THURSDAY BEFORE ENDING. THEREAFTER...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL
DOMINATE WITH A DRY PATTERN...SHIFTING FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
THURSDAY INTO NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY NIGHT...AND THEN EAST OF NORTH
DAKOTA SATURDAY. THE WARMEST POCKET OF AIR SLIDES THROUGH SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT VIA A SOUTHWEST FLOW...AHEAD OF A SHARP COLD
FRONTAL SYSTEM WHICH PASSES THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY. IN DOING SO...EXPECT A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN AGREEMENT
WITH THE TRACK OF THE UPPER/SURFACE LOW SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...TAKING
IT ON A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TRACK FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND THEN ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA. THE GEM
TAKES A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK...MOVING IT FROM SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA
ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA RESULTING IN
A MORE BROAD/WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EVENT. ALL SOLUTIONS HOWEVER
SHOW STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS.
REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN BLOWING/FALLING SNOW MAY BE THE GREATEST
IMPACT AND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED IN FUTURE RUNS FOR POSSIBLE
HEADLINES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 949 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014
MVFR TO LOW VFR STRATUS HAS CLEARED AT KISN AND KDIK EARLY THIS
EVENING. BACK EDGE WILL SLOWLY ERODE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE NIGHT. SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
LATE TONIGHT ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STRATUS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...TWH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1244 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS...WIND SHIFT WITH COLD FRONT OCCURRED EARLIER THIS
MORNING AT WWR AND GAG. THE FRONT IS MAKING DECENT PROGRESS TO THE
SOUTHEAST...ESPECIALLY IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. CURRENT HRRR WAS
FOLLOWED FOR COLD FRONT TIMING...WHICH MAY BE AN HOUR OR SO SLOW.
WIND SHIFT AT OKC/OUN SHOULD BE AROUND 23-00Z. HIGH CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST WITHIN A 70-100KT FLOW. BEST CHANCE
FOR ELEVATED SHOWERS/STORMS LATER THIS EVENING IN CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA (OKC/OUN TAFS).
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2014/
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS IS BELOW.
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT A BAND/LINE OF -SHRA WILL AFFECT
KOKC AND KOUN 20-22Z...AS WELL AS POSSIBLY KLAW...KPNC...KHBR...
AND KHBR 17-21Z. THUS...ADDED MENTION. GUSTY WINDS MAY OCCUR WITH
-SHRA. TS IS POSSIBLE AS WELL BUT DID NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND BRING A WIND SHIFT FROM THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTH. THIS FRONT WILL REACH
NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AROUND 16Z...THEN NEAR KOKC AND KLAW
00-02Z...AND KSPS 02-05Z.
ADDITIONAL ISO-SCT SHRA/TSRA MAY OCCUR AFTER 00Z EAST OF KEND-
KLTS...BUT DID NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.
MBS
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2014/
DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST CHALLENGE OF THE DAY IS DETERMINING RAIN CHANCES TODAY
AND TONIGHT. HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE RAIN CHANCES FORECAST THROUGH
TONIGHT.
NEAR RECORD HEAT WILL AGAIN OCCUR TODAY SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT...
MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF A CLINTON TO PONCA CITY LINE. USED A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE HIGHS...GENERALLY TOWARDS THE COOLER SIDE NORTH OF THE
FRONT AND WARM SIDE SOUTH OF THE FRONT.
THIS MORNING...INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL OCCUR. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...PERHAPS SLIGHTLY
FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. WENT WITH THE HRRR FOR COLD
FRONT TIMING TODAY.
THIS AFTERNOON...A BAND OR LINE OF HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP NEAR OR JUST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. THE
LATEST TWO RUNS OF THE HRRR INDICATED THIS POTENTIAL. SINCE
FORCING IS RATHER STRONG...THINK THE HRRR SOLUTION SEEMS
REASONABLE...SO ADDED 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCES NEAR CLINTON... TO
OKLAHOMA CITY...TO STILLWATER. IF THIS MATERIALIZES...GUSTY WINDS
AND BRIEF DOWNPOURS WOULD BE POSSIBLE. NOT SURE THIS WILL OCCUR AS
OTHER MODELS GENERALLY DID NOT DEPICT ANY QPF. THERE IS AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE A FEW ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS FROM DAYTIME HEATING...BUT THIS
SEEMS DOUBTFUL AS THE CAP SHOULD HOLD.
TONIGHT...ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP...GENERALLY ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT. THESE WOULD BE CAPABLE OF HAIL...POSSIBLY UP
TO QUARTERS...THOUGH OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL REMAINS LOW...AND
THE HIGHER STORM CHANCES MAY BE ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND POINTS
EAST. KEPT RAIN CHANCES 20 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE EAST OF A ENID TO
ALTUS LINE WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES EAST OF SHAWNEE. ANY RAINFALL
WILL LIKELY REMAIN LIGHT AND SPOTTY...THOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT A EAST WEST BAND OF OVER 0.50 INCH SOMEWHERE NEAR AND
EAST OF I-35. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH AND THROUGH THE
AREA.
TUESDAY...A FEW ELEVATED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY LINGER NEAR THE
RED RIVER EAST OF I-35. OTHERWISE...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA. USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE HIGHS...WHICH WILL
BE SEASONABLE FOR LATE OCTOBER.
TUESDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
ARE EXPECTED. PATCHY FROST MAY DEVELOP IN A FEW RURAL LOCATIONS...
MAINLY IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE
RED RIVER CLOSE TO AND EAST OF I-35.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS. KEPT LOW
CHANCES FOR RAIN OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS ON THURSDAY AS THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE RETURN FOR RAIN
DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE
OUT PATCHY FROST THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING IN RURAL
LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE COOLEST ON FRIDAY. MOISTURE
MAY INCREASE BY SUNDAY.
MBS
CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS THE AREA. HERE ARE
THE RECORDS.
TODAY OCTOBER 27
OKLAHOMA CITY 86 1922
WICHITA FALLS 91 1938
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 52 70 44 73 / 20 0 0 0
HOBART OK 50 71 42 73 / 10 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 56 74 47 75 / 20 0 0 0
GAGE OK 41 68 35 73 / 10 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 46 70 39 72 / 30 0 0 0
DURANT OK 60 72 50 73 / 40 20 10 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
632 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2014
.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS IS BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT A BAND/LINE OF -SHRA WILL AFFECT
KOKC AND KOUN 20-22Z...AS WELL AS POSSIBLY KLAW...KPNC...KHBR...
AND KHBR 17-21Z. THUS...ADDED MENTION. GUSTY WINDS MAY OCCUR WITH
-SHRA. TS IS POSSIBLE AS WELL BUT DID NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND BRING A WIND SHIFT FROM THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTH. THIS FRONT WILL REACH
NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AROUND 16Z...THEN NEAR KOKC AND KLAW
00-02Z...AND KSPS 02-05Z.
ADDITIONAL ISO-SCT SHRA/TSRA MAY OCCUR AFTER 00Z EAST OF KEND-
KLTS...BUT DID NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.
MBS
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2014/
DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST CHALLENGE OF THE DAY IS DETERMINING RAIN CHANCES TODAY
AND TONIGHT. HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE RAIN CHANCES FORECAST THROUGH
TONIGHT.
NEAR RECORD HEAT WILL AGAIN OCCUR TODAY SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT...
MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF A CLINTON TO PONCA CITY LINE. USED A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE HIGHS...GENERALLY TOWARDS THE COOLER SIDE NORTH OF THE
FRONT AND WARM SIDE SOUTH OF THE FRONT.
THIS MORNING...INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL OCCUR. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...PERHAPS SLIGHTLY
FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. WENT WITH THE HRRR FOR COLD
FRONT TIMING TODAY.
THIS AFTERNOON...A BAND OR LINE OF HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP NEAR OR JUST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. THE
LATEST TWO RUNS OF THE HRRR INDICATED THIS POTENTIAL. SINCE
FORCING IS RATHER STRONG...THINK THE HRRR SOLUTION SEEMS
REASONABLE...SO ADDED 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCES NEAR CLINTON... TO
OKLAHOMA CITY...TO STILLWATER. IF THIS MATERIALIZES...GUSTY WINDS
AND BRIEF DOWNPOURS WOULD BE POSSIBLE. NOT SURE THIS WILL OCCUR AS
OTHER MODELS GENERALLY DID NOT DEPICT ANY QPF. THERE IS AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE A FEW ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS FROM DAYTIME HEATING...BUT THIS
SEEMS DOUBTFUL AS THE CAP SHOULD HOLD.
TONIGHT...ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP...GENERALLY ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT. THESE WOULD BE CAPABLE OF HAIL...POSSIBLY UP
TO QUARTERS...THOUGH OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL REMAINS LOW...AND
THE HIGHER STORM CHANCES MAY BE ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND POINTS
EAST. KEPT RAIN CHANCES 20 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE EAST OF A ENID TO
ALTUS LINE WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES EAST OF SHAWNEE. ANY RAINFALL
WILL LIKELY REMAIN LIGHT AND SPOTTY...THOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT A EAST WEST BAND OF OVER 0.50 INCH SOMEWHERE NEAR AND
EAST OF I-35. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH AND THROUGH THE
AREA.
TUESDAY...A FEW ELEVATED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY LINGER NEAR THE
RED RIVER EAST OF I-35. OTHERWISE...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA. USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE HIGHS...WHICH WILL
BE SEASONABLE FOR LATE OCTOBER.
TUESDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
ARE EXPECTED. PATCHY FROST MAY DEVELOP IN A FEW RURAL LOCATIONS...
MAINLY IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE
RED RIVER CLOSE TO AND EAST OF I-35.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS. KEPT LOW
CHANCES FOR RAIN OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS ON THURSDAY AS THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE RETURN FOR RAIN
DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE
OUT PATCHY FROST THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING IN RURAL
LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE COOLEST ON FRIDAY. MOISTURE
MAY INCREASE BY SUNDAY.
MBS
CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS THE AREA. HERE ARE
THE RECORDS.
TODAY OCTOBER 27
OKLAHOMA CITY 86 1922
WICHITA FALLS 91 1938
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 85 52 70 44 / 30 20 0 0
HOBART OK 85 50 71 42 / 20 10 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 90 56 74 47 / 0 20 0 0
GAGE OK 75 41 68 35 / 10 10 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 82 46 70 39 / 20 30 0 0
DURANT OK 84 60 72 50 / 0 40 20 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
03/99/17
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED TO ADD CLIMATE SECTION
NWS NORMAN OK
402 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2014
.DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST CHALLENGE OF THE DAY IS DETERMINING RAIN CHANCES TODAY
AND TONIGHT. HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE RAIN CHANCES FORECAST THROUGH
TONIGHT.
NEAR RECORD HEAT WILL AGAIN OCCUR TODAY SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT...
MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF A CLINTON TO PONCA CITY LINE. USED A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE HIGHS...GENERALLY TOWARDS THE COOLER SIDE NORTH OF THE
FRONT AND WARM SIDE SOUTH OF THE FRONT.
THIS MORNING...INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL OCCUR. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...PERHAPS SLIGHTLY
FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. WENT WITH THE HRRR FOR COLD
FRONT TIMING TODAY.
THIS AFTERNOON...A BAND OR LINE OF HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP NEAR OR JUST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. THE
LATEST TWO RUNS OF THE HRRR INDICATED THIS POTENTIAL. SINCE
FORCING IS RATHER STRONG...THINK THE HRRR SOLUTION SEEMS
REASONABLE...SO ADDED 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCES NEAR CLINTON... TO
OKLAHOMA CITY...TO STILLWATER. IF THIS MATERIALIZES...GUSTY WINDS
AND BRIEF DOWNPOURS WOULD BE POSSIBLE. NOT SURE THIS WILL OCCUR AS
OTHER MODELS GENERALLY DID NOT DEPICT ANY QPF. THERE IS AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE A FEW ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS FROM DAYTIME HEATING...BUT THIS
SEEMS DOUBTFUL AS THE CAP SHOULD HOLD.
TONIGHT...ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP...GENERALLY ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT. THESE WOULD BE CAPABLE OF HAIL...POSSIBLY UP
TO QUARTERS...THOUGH OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL REMAINS LOW...AND
THE HIGHER STORM CHANCES MAY BE ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND POINTS
EAST. KEPT RAIN CHANCES 20 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE EAST OF A ENID TO
ALTUS LINE WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES EAST OF SHAWNEE. ANY RAINFALL
WILL LIKELY REMAIN LIGHT AND SPOTTY...THOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT A EAST WEST BAND OF OVER 0.50 INCH SOMEWHERE NEAR AND
EAST OF I-35. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH AND THROUGH THE
AREA.
TUESDAY...A FEW ELEVATED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY LINGER NEAR THE
RED RIVER EAST OF I-35. OTHERWISE...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA. USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE HIGHS...WHICH WILL
BE SEASONABLE FOR LATE OCTOBER.
TUESDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
ARE EXPECTED. PATCHY FROST MAY DEVELOP IN A FEW RURAL LOCATIONS...
MAINLY IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE
RED RIVER CLOSE TO AND EAST OF I-35.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS. KEPT LOW
CHANCES FOR RAIN OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS ON THURSDAY AS THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE RETURN FOR RAIN
DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE
OUT PATCHY FROST THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING IN RURAL
LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE COOLEST ON FRIDAY. MOISTURE
MAY INCREASE BY SUNDAY.
MBS
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS THE AREA. HERE ARE
THE RECORDS.
TODAY OCTOBER 27
OKLAHOMA CITY 86 1922
WICHITA FALLS 91 1938
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 85 52 70 44 / 30 20 0 0
HOBART OK 85 50 71 42 / 20 10 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 90 56 74 47 / 0 20 0 0
GAGE OK 75 41 68 35 / 10 10 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 82 46 70 39 / 20 30 0 0
DURANT OK 84 60 72 50 / 0 40 20 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
03/17
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
359 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2014
.DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST CHALLENGE OF THE DAY IS DETERMINING RAIN CHANCES TODAY
AND TONIGHT. HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE RAIN CHANCES FORECAST THROUGH
TONIGHT.
NEAR RECORD HEAT WILL AGAIN OCCUR TODAY SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT...
MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF A CLINTON TO PONCA CITY LINE. USED A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE HIGHS...GENERALLY TOWARDS THE COOLER SIDE NORTH OF THE
FRONT AND WARM SIDE SOUTH OF THE FRONT.
THIS MORNING...INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL OCCUR. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...PERHAPS SLIGHTLY
FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. WENT WITH THE HRRR FOR COLD
FRONT TIMING TODAY.
THIS AFTERNOON...A BAND OR LINE OF HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP NEAR OR JUST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. THE
LATEST TWO RUNS OF THE HRRR INDICATED THIS POTENTIAL. SINCE
FORCING IS RATHER STRONG...THINK THE HRRR SOLUTION SEEMS
REASONABLE...SO ADDED 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCES NEAR CLINTON... TO
OKLAHOMA CITY...TO STILLWATER. IF THIS MATERIALIZES...GUSTY WINDS
AND BRIEF DOWNPOURS WOULD BE POSSIBLE. NOT SURE THIS WILL OCCUR AS
OTHER MODELS GENERALLY DID NOT DEPICT ANY QPF. THERE IS AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE A FEW ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS FROM DAYTIME HEATING...BUT THIS
SEEMS DOUBTFUL AS THE CAP SHOULD HOLD.
TONIGHT...ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP...GENERALLY ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT. THESE WOULD BE CAPABLE OF HAIL...POSSIBLY UP
TO QUARTERS...THOUGH OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL REMAINS LOW...AND
THE HIGHER STORM CHANCES MAY BE ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND POINTS
EAST. KEPT RAIN CHANCES 20 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE EAST OF A ENID TO
ALTUS LINE WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES EAST OF SHAWNEE. ANY RAINFALL
WILL LIKELY REMAIN LIGHT AND SPOTTY...THOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT A EAST WEST BAND OF OVER 0.50 INCH SOMEWHERE NEAR AND
EAST OF I-35. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH AND THROUGH THE
AREA.
TUESDAY...A FEW ELEVATED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY LINGER NEAR THE
RED RIVER EAST OF I-35. OTHERWISE...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA. USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE HIGHS...WHICH WILL
BE SEASONABLE FOR LATE OCTOBER.
TUESDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
ARE EXPECTED. PATCHY FROST MAY DEVELOP IN A FEW RURAL LOCATIONS...
MAINLY IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE
RED RIVER CLOSE TO AND EAST OF I-35.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS. KEPT LOW
CHANCES FOR RAIN OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS ON THURSDAY AS THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE RETURN FOR RAIN
DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE
OUT PATCHY FROST THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING IN RURAL
LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE COOLEST ON FRIDAY. MOISTURE
MAY INCREASE BY SUNDAY.
MBS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 85 52 70 44 / 30 20 0 0
HOBART OK 85 50 71 42 / 20 10 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 90 56 74 47 / 0 20 0 0
GAGE OK 75 41 68 35 / 10 10 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 82 46 70 39 / 20 30 0 0
DURANT OK 84 60 72 50 / 0 40 20 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
03/17
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
935 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014
.UPDATE...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM CELINA TO MURFREESBORO AND
WAYNESBORO. NORTH OF THE FRONT...TEMPS WERE IN THE LOW TO MID
50S...WHILE TEMPS REMAINED IN THE LOWER 60S SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY.
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE SCATTERED ALONG THE FRONT.
THE FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH MOST OF THE MID STATE BY
MIDNIGHT...BUT POST FRONTAL SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL LINGER LATE INTO THE NIGHT.
THE FORECAST WAS RECENTLY UPDATED TO RAISE POPS ALL AREAS. RAIN
WILL NOT BE CONSTANT...BUT SHOWERS ARE NUMEROUS ENOUGH THAT
EVERYBODY SHOULD HAVE SOME PERIODS OF MEASURABLE RAIN THROUGH THE
NIGHT. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL END FOR OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES BY
MIDNIGHT. MOST OTHER AREAS WEST OF THE PLATEAU WILL SEE AN END TO
SHOWERS BY 6 AM. TOTAL RAINFALL WILL RANGE FROM AROUND ONE QUARTER
INCH NORTHWEST...TO AROUND THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH FOR THE
SOUTH HALF AND PLATEAU.
TEMPS ARE ON TRACK TO FOR LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S
13
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014/
UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION FORECASTS.
AVIATION...SURFACE COLD FRONT NEAR A LEX-BNA-MEM LINE AT 23Z,
PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OUT AHEAD
OF IT. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BEHIND THE FRONT
WAS PRODUCING A BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM NEAR SDF TO
CKV...DYR AND LIT. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY COMMON
OVERNIGHT AT MID STATE TERMINALS AS THESE TWO AREAS OF
PRECIPITATION MOVE ACROSS THE MID STATE. SURFACE FRONT SHOULD PUSH
EAST OF MIDDLE TN AROUND 10Z, WITH SOME POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS
LINGERING IN THE CSV AREA THROUGH 15Z. EXPECT MVFR TO GIVE WAY TO
VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 05Z AT CKV, AFTER 07Z AT BNA, AND AFTER 13Z
AT CSV.
19
&&
329 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014
.DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT IS JUST TO THE NW OF THE CWA AT THIS TIME. PRECIPITATION
ALONG THE FRONT HAS LOST ORGANIZATION THROUGH THE DAY. SCATTERED
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS THE EXTENT OF THE PRECIP AND IS CONFINED TO THE
WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF OUR COUNTIES FOR NOW. FORCING IS WEAK ALONG
THE BOUNDARY AND THE LATEST HRRR DOES NOT INDICATE MUCH IN THE WAY
OF STRENGTHENING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. SO...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE HRRR
WHICH CONTINUES TO JUST SHOW LIGHT TO MODERATE SCATTERED SHOWER
ACTIVITY FOR TONIGHT. WILL LOWER QPF AMOUNTS IN THE GRIDS AND
GENERALLY UTILIZE 40-60 PERCENT POPS. WILL INCLUDE JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDER. STILL...SOME MINIMAL INSTABILITIES ARE IN
PLACE.
FOLLOWING A FEW RESIDUAL SHOWERS IN THE MORNING ACROSS OUR EASTERN
AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES...WE SHOULD SEE DECREASING CLOUDS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND THIS
LATEST COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL ONLY USHER IN NEAR NORMAL VALUES
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
IN THE EXT FCST...THE WEATHER LOOKS A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING THAN
24 HRS AGO. AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS LOOKING AS THOUGH IT WILL DIVE
SOUTHEAST AND MOVE ACROSS EASTERN TN BY THIS WEEKEND. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO NORTHERLY ON FRIDAY ACROSS TN AND WILL BEGIN TO USHER IN
COOLER TO COLDER TEMPERATURES. HERE IN THE MID STATE...WE WILL BE ON
THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND THERE WILL BE SOME
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ON FRIDAY AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. GFS ACTUALLY
SUPPORTS A FEW FLURRIES FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLATEAU. BUT...GIVEN THAT THIS IS ONLY RUN #1 OF GFS
CONTINUITY...WILL ONLY MENTION COLDER TEMPS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
FURTHERMORE...EURO IS FURTHER EAST WITH THE TRACK AND MOISTURE.
SATURDAY LOOKS RATHER COLD WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE UPPER
40S TO MID 50S WITH AN APPRECIABLE NORTHERLY BREEZE AS WELL.
SO...LOOKING COLD AND BRISK ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE
WARM WEATHER WE HAVE HAD.
OTHERWISE...SFC HIGH WILL BE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY ON SUNDAY MORNING.
MEX IS TRENDING TOWARD COLDER AND A FREEZE POTENTIAL IS CERTAINLY IN
PLACE. FOR NOW...WILL INCLUDE PATCHY/AREAS OF FROST ACROSS THE AREA.
LOOK FOR A WARMING TREND TO OCCUR ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
21
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
849 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014
.UPDATE...
SHOWERS HAVE FAILED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED FRONT ON THE
NORTHERN BORDER OF OUR AREA. THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL AS THE LOW-
LEVEL JET REACHES IT/S DIURNAL MAXIMUM LATER TONIGHT. THE FORECAST
WAS JUST UPDATED THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY TO RE-TREND FROM THE CURRENT
CONDITIONS. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST OTHER THAN REMOVAL OF
POPS BEFORE 06Z AND A REDUCTION IN CLOUDCOVER THROUGH 18Z
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014/
AVIATION...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY. IT
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS OVERNIGHT.
WHILE NUMERICAL MODELS AND MODEL CROSS SECTIONS KEEP MOST OF THE
AREA VFR THROUGH THE NIGHT...HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS (THE HRRR AND
SIMULATED SATELLITE WRF) SUGGEST MVFR CIGS BEGINNING AROUND 05Z AT
THE I-35 TERMINALS AND AROUND 10Z AT DRT. HAVE SIDED WITH THE HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS. SOME DRIZZLE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AFTER THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN TOMORROW AFTERNOON BETWEEN 19Z AND 21Z ACROSS CENTRAL
TEXAS.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. NORTHERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT AUS BY 02Z...AND SAT/SSF/DRT BY 05Z. WIND
SPEEDS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS.
TREADWAY
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...THE COLD FRONT HAS
SLOWED ITS SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT AT 3 PM
STRETCHED FROM JUST SOUTH OF DALLAS THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS...THE
NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY AND INTO VAL VERDE COUNTY. THE FRONT WILL
CONTINUE SOUTH TONIGHT...REACHING CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LIGHT WINDS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT.
ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE SHALLOW FRONT
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE FRONT NOW LOOKS TO SLIP JUST
SOUTH OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS OF THE CWA ENDING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
COOLER ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID
TO UPPER 70S...POSSIBLY LOWER 80S ACROSS SOUTHERN CWA.
LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS
WHILE DOWNSTREAM TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL SEND A RE-ENFORCING COLD FRONT INTO THE
REGION EARLY FRIDAY. MOISTURE IS POOLED ALONG THE RIO GRANDE...
AND 12Z GFS/NAM12/CMC ARE ALL INDICATING LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS ACROSS
THE WESTERN CWA AHEAD OF THIS FRONT FRIDAY. FOR NOW AM DISCOUNTING
ECMWF QPF ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. DRIER AIR DOES FILTER INTO THE REGION FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. COOL AND DRY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE. LOWS SATURDAY
MORNING COULD DIP INTO THE MID AND UPPER 40S ACROSS THE HILL
COUNTRY AND CENTRAL TEXAS...LOW TO MID 50S SOUTHERN AREAS...AND
UPPER 50S ALONG THE RIO GRANDE.
RETURN FLOW SETS UP LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...WITH CLOUDS
RETURNING QUICKLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS AND MODERATING
TEMPERATURES. A FEW WEAK STREAMER SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH NOT MENTIONED IN OFFICIAL FORECAST.
FORECAST IS BECOMING MORE INTERESTING EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN FURTHER ON MONDAY...AHEAD
OF A DEEP TROUGH THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...DESERT
SOUTHWEST AND BAJA CALIFORNIA. AGAIN...ISOLATED STREAMER SHOWERS
POSSIBLE MONDAY AND MENTIONED IN FORECAST. SOME DISCREPANCIES
BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS WITH HOW QUICKLY THE TROUGH MOVES
EAST...WITH THE 12Z ECMWF FASTER INTO THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...LEAVING BEHIND LOW CUTT OFF WEST OF BAJA. GFS IS
SLIGHTLY SLOWER...WITH TROUGH COMING OUT TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT...AND SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE TROUGH NOT CUTTING OFF...MOVING
DEEP THROUGH MEXICO AND TEXAS. THE GFS ABSORBS THE NEXT PACIFIC
TROPICAL SYSTEM INTO THE TROUGH...WITH DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL
PACIFIC TAP OF REMNANT MOISTURE AND ENERGY MOVING RIGHT TROUGH
SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS TUESDAY...COINCIDING WITH A STRONGER COLD
FRONT. STARTED AN UPWARD TREND IN THE POPS FOR TUESDAY ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS...NOW INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY. SHOULD THE
PACIFIC TAP VERIFY...THEN POPS COULD END UP MUCH HIGHER...AND
BENEFICIAL QPF AMOUNTS GIVEN THEN HIGH PWATS FOR EARLY NOVEMBER.
GIVEN DAY 7 FORECAST...MAY TAKE A FEW MORE DAYS FOR MODEL
CONSENSUS TO DEVELOP. STAY TUNED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 64 78 59 82 58 / 20 20 10 10 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 63 78 56 81 53 / 20 20 10 10 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 65 79 60 82 58 / 20 20 10 10 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 59 75 56 78 55 / 20 10 10 10 -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 65 76 64 84 64 / 20 20 10 10 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 60 77 56 80 56 / 20 20 10 10 -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 65 79 58 84 59 / 20 20 10 10 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 64 78 58 82 56 / 20 20 10 10 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 64 79 58 80 55 / 20 20 10 10 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 65 79 62 82 61 / 20 20 10 10 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 67 80 62 83 61 / 20 20 10 10 10
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...12
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...26
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS FORT WORTH TX
656 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014
.UPDATE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPED NEAR THE COLD FRONT LATE AFTERNOON.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AT AROUND 10 MPH AND AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO COULD DEVELOP THIS EVENING. HAVE
MADE A QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST THE POPS REMOVING AREAS ALONG AND
NORTHWEST OF A LAMPASAS TO WACO TO EMORY LINE. HAVE ALSO
INCREASED THE POPS A LITTLE FOR THIS EVENING SOUTHEAST OF AN
ATHENS TO GROESBECK LINE.
58
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 644 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014/
/00Z TAFS/
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH AND IS LOCATED ALONG A LINE FROM
NEAR KILLEEN TO FAIRFIELD AND NORTHEAST TO TYLER. NORTH WINDS
AROUND 10KTS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SCT/BKN040 CIGS CAN BE
EXPECTED. THERE ARE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT BUT
MOST OF THESE ARE SOUTH OF THE WACO AREA SO NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME LINGERING CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE EAST BY MID DAY
WEDNESDAY.
DUNN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014/
THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTH TEXAS
AREA. PATCHES OF LOWER CLOUDS ARE EVIDENT ON SATELLITE...BUT
RADAR CURRENTLY ONLY SHOWS WEAK SHOWER ACTIVITY NEAR GILMER IN
EAST TEXAS. HRRR STILL SHOWS SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHERN
ZONES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING SO HAVE LEFT LOW POPS IN THAT AREA.
MODERATE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S/LOW
80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S/60S THROUGH FRIDAY. THEN THE NEXT SHOT OF
REINFORCING COLD AIR PUSHES IN ON FRIDAY. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW LOWS TO DROP INTO THE 40S
NORTH AND LOW 50S FAR SOUTH. SATURDAY HIGHS WILL SIT IN THE 60S IN
ALL BUT THE SOUTH AND WEST WHERE LOW 70S ARE EXPECTED.
IN THE EXTENDED...GFS/ECMWF ADVERTISE A GOOD RAIN EVENT
MONDAY/TUESDAY...WITH THE GFS ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA. ECMWF CUTS THIS MOISTURE OFF IN MEXICO. HAVE HIGH CHANCE
POPS DURING THAT TIME FRAME DUE TO MODEL AGREEMENT...BUT WILL
RESERVE JUDGMENT ON THE TROPICAL MOISTURE. IF IT OCCURS...QPF
MAY BE MUCH HIGHER THAN IF IT GETS TRAPPED IN MEXICO. 84
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 56 77 53 77 53 / 5 0 0 10 5
WACO, TX 57 77 53 78 55 / 10 10 5 10 5
PARIS, TX 52 74 46 73 49 / 10 5 5 10 5
DENTON, TX 49 76 47 76 49 / 5 0 0 10 5
MCKINNEY, TX 51 76 46 75 50 / 10 5 0 10 5
DALLAS, TX 56 77 55 76 55 / 10 0 0 10 5
TERRELL, TX 55 76 51 76 52 / 10 5 5 10 5
CORSICANA, TX 58 76 52 76 53 / 20 20 5 10 5
TEMPLE, TX 60 77 55 79 55 / 20 20 10 10 5
MINERAL WELLS, TX 51 77 49 77 50 / 5 0 0 10 5
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
91/58
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
644 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014
.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH AND IS LOCATED ALONG A LINE FROM
NEAR KILLEEN TO FAIRFIELD AND NORTHEAST TO TYLER. NORTH WINDS
AROUND 10KTS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SCT/BKN040 CIGS CAN BE
EXPECTED. THERE ARE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT BUT
MOST OF THESE ARE SOUTH OF THE WACO AREA SO NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME LINGERING CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE EAST BY MID DAY
WEDNESDAY.
DUNN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014/
THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTH TEXAS
AREA. PATCHES OF LOWER CLOUDS ARE EVIDENT ON SATELLITE...BUT
RADAR CURRENTLY ONLY SHOWS WEAK SHOWER ACTIVITY NEAR GILMER IN
EAST TEXAS. HRRR STILL SHOWS SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHERN
ZONES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING SO HAVE LEFT LOW POPS IN THAT AREA.
MODERATE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S/LOW
80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S/60S THROUGH FRIDAY. THEN THE NEXT SHOT OF
REINFORCING COLD AIR PUSHES IN ON FRIDAY. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW LOWS TO DROP INTO THE 40S
NORTH AND LOW 50S FAR SOUTH. SATURDAY HIGHS WILL SIT IN THE 60S IN
ALL BUT THE SOUTH AND WEST WHERE LOW 70S ARE EXPECTED.
IN THE EXTENDED...GFS/ECMWF ADVERTISE A GOOD RAIN EVENT
MONDAY/TUESDAY...WITH THE GFS ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA. ECMWF CUTS THIS MOISTURE OFF IN MEXICO. HAVE HIGH CHANCE
POPS DURING THAT TIME FRAME DUE TO MODEL AGREEMENT...BUT WILL
RESERVE JUDGMENT ON THE TROPICAL MOISTURE. IF IT OCCURS...QPF
MAY BE MUCH HIGHER THAN IF IT GETS TRAPPED IN MEXICO. 84
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 56 77 53 77 53 / 10 0 0 10 5
WACO, TX 57 77 53 78 55 / 20 10 5 10 5
PARIS, TX 52 74 46 73 49 / 20 5 5 10 5
DENTON, TX 49 76 47 76 49 / 5 0 0 10 5
MCKINNEY, TX 51 76 46 75 50 / 10 5 0 10 5
DALLAS, TX 56 77 55 76 55 / 10 0 0 10 5
TERRELL, TX 55 76 51 76 52 / 20 5 5 10 5
CORSICANA, TX 58 76 52 76 53 / 30 20 5 10 5
TEMPLE, TX 60 77 55 79 55 / 20 20 10 10 5
MINERAL WELLS, TX 51 77 49 77 50 / 5 0 0 10 5
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
623 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014
.AVIATION...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY. IT
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS OVERNIGHT.
WHILE NUMERICAL MODELS AND MODEL CROSS SECTIONS KEEP MOST OF THE
AREA VFR THROUGH THE NIGHT...HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS (THE HRRR AND
SIMULATED SATELLITE WRF) SUGGEST MVFR CIGS BEGINNING AROUND 05Z AT
THE I-35 TERMINALS AND AROUND 10Z AT DRT. HAVE SIDED WITH THE HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS. SOME DRIZZLE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AFTER THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN TOMORROW AFTERNOON BETWEEN 19Z AND 21Z ACROSS CENTRAL
TEXAS.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. NORTHERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT AUS BY 02Z...AND SAT/SSF/DRT BY 05Z. WIND
SPEEDS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS.
TREADWAY
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...THE COLD FRONT HAS
SLOWED ITS SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT AT 3 PM
STRETCHED FROM JUST SOUTH OF DALLAS THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS...THE
NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY AND INTO VAL VERDE COUNTY. THE FRONT WILL
CONTINUE SOUTH TONIGHT...REACHING CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LIGHT WINDS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT.
ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE SHALLOW FRONT
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE FRONT NOW LOOKS TO SLIP JUST
SOUTH OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS OF THE CWA ENDING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
COOLER ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID
TO UPPER 70S...POSSIBLY LOWER 80S ACROSS SOUTHERN CWA.
LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS
WHILE DOWNSTREAM TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL SEND A RE-ENFORCING COLD FRONT INTO THE
REGION EARLY FRIDAY. MOISTURE IS POOLED ALONG THE RIO GRANDE...
AND 12Z GFS/NAM12/CMC ARE ALL INDICATING LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS ACROSS
THE WESTERN CWA AHEAD OF THIS FRONT FRIDAY. FOR NOW AM DISCOUNTING
ECMWF QPF ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. DRIER AIR DOES FILTER INTO THE REGION FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. COOL AND DRY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE. LOWS SATURDAY
MORNING COULD DIP INTO THE MID AND UPPER 40S ACROSS THE HILL
COUNTRY AND CENTRAL TEXAS...LOW TO MID 50S SOUTHERN AREAS...AND
UPPER 50S ALONG THE RIO GRANDE.
RETURN FLOW SETS UP LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...WITH CLOUDS
RETURNING QUICKLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS AND MODERATING
TEMPERATURES. A FEW WEAK STREAMER SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH NOT MENTIONED IN OFFICIAL FORECAST.
FORECAST IS BECOMING MORE INTERESTING EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN FURTHER ON MONDAY...AHEAD
OF A DEEP TROUGH THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...DESERT
SOUTHWEST AND BAJA CALIFORNIA. AGAIN...ISOLATED STREAMER SHOWERS
POSSIBLE MONDAY AND MENTIONED IN FORECAST. SOME DISCREPANCIES
BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS WITH HOW QUICKLY THE TROUGH MOVES
EAST...WITH THE 12Z ECMWF FASTER INTO THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...LEAVING BEHIND LOW CUTT OFF WEST OF BAJA. GFS IS
SLIGHTLY SLOWER...WITH TROUGH COMING OUT TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT...AND SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE TROUGH NOT CUTTING OFF...MOVING
DEEP THROUGH MEXICO AND TEXAS. THE GFS ABSORBS THE NEXT PACIFIC
TROPICAL SYSTEM INTO THE TROUGH...WITH DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL
PACIFIC TAP OF REMNANT MOISTURE AND ENERGY MOVING RIGHT TROUGH
SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS TUESDAY...COINCIDING WITH A STRONGER COLD
FRONT. STARTED AN UPWARD TREND IN THE POPS FOR TUESDAY ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS...NOW INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY. SHOULD THE
PACIFIC TAP VERIFY...THEN POPS COULD END UP MUCH HIGHER...AND
BENEFICIAL QPF AMOUNTS GIVEN THEN HIGH PWATS FOR EARLY NOVEMBER.
GIVEN DAY 7 FORECAST...MAY TAKE A FEW MORE DAYS FOR MODEL
CONSENSUS TO DEVELOP. STAY TUNED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 84 64 78 59 82 / 10 20 20 10 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 84 63 78 56 81 / - 20 20 10 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 86 65 79 60 82 / - 20 20 10 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 81 59 75 56 78 / 10 20 10 10 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 80 65 76 64 84 / - 20 20 10 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 82 60 77 56 80 / 10 20 20 10 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 85 65 79 58 84 / - 20 20 10 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 85 64 78 58 82 / - 20 20 10 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 85 64 79 58 80 / - 20 20 10 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 86 65 79 62 82 / - 20 20 10 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 86 67 80 62 83 / - 20 20 10 10
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...12
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...26
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00
YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
319 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2014
FOCUS IS ON RAIN THIS MORNING...AND POTENTIAL FOR REDEVELOPMENT
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94 AS WAS
PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. THAT ACTIVITY IS MOVING NORTHEAST...AND
ANTICIPATE DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. BUT A POTENT LONG WAVE TROUGH WITH EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE
ENERGY WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...DRIVING A SURFACE
LOW AND COLD FRONT ACROSS DURING THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL RAIN
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. BUT IT DOES
APPEAR THAT THE TIMING IS SLIGHTLY OFF...WITH THE FRONT ALMOST ALL
THE WAY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE NEW CONVECTION DEVELOPS.
THUS HAVE MAINTAINED THE RAIN CHANCES WITH THE HIGHEST RISK OVER
THE FAR SOUTHEAST PART OF OUR AREA FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. SOME QUESTION TODAY ON CLOUDS AS WELL. A FEW OF THE
MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST DRY AIR ROTATING IN FOR A TIME...LEADING
TO LESS CLOUD COVER AND POTENTIALLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. DID RAISE
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN WHERE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR LATEST.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2014
COOLER AIR DROPPING INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER
TROUGH ON TUESDAY. COULD BE A BIT BREEZY AS WELL WITH GOOD
DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT. WITH THE COOLER AIR REGIME...COULD
SEE SOME INSTABILITY SHOWERS FROM CENTRAL MN INTO NORTHERN WI.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY.
BUT A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
THIS FEATURE HAS BEEN PRESENT IN THE MODELS FOR SEVERAL DAYS
NOW...WITH VARYING DEGREES OF STRENGTH AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE.
PREVIOUS FORECAST TOOK THE RAIN CHANCE OUT...AND HAVE MAINTAINED
THAT CONTINUITY FOR NOW. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS HOWEVER...SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. ANOTHER REINFORCING
SHOT OF COLD AIR ARRIVES TO END THE WEEK AS A SPRAWLING HIGH
PRESSURE AREA DROPS IN FROM CANADA. FRIDAY SHOULD BE A CHILLY FALL
DAY...AND SATURDAY MORNING LOOKS QUITE CRISP. BUT THE UPPER
PATTERN IS REALLY AMPLIFYING BY THIS TIME...AND WITH A DEEPENING
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE MT/WY ROCKIES...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN AND WILL BEGIN A SLOW MODERATION. COULD
BE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE WARM ADVECTION ON SUNDAY...BUT AT
THIS POINT NOT LOOKING LIKE ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT. BRUNT OF THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS TO STAY TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA AT THIS
POINT...SO MINIMAL IMPACT. BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE EVOLUTION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014
27.00Z SOUNDINGS FROM KDVN AND KMPX INDICATED A LOT OF DRY AIR
WAS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING AND DESPITE THE ONGOING
ISENTROPIC LIFT...SATURATION HAS YET TO OCCUR. THE 27.00Z NAM AND
27.03Z RAP NOW SUGGEST THAT IF SATURATION IS GOING TO OCCUR...IT
WILL NOT BE UNTIL AFTER 12Z MONDAY. BASED ON THE CURRENT TRENDS
AND THIS MODEL DATA...HAVE TAKEN OUT THE IFR CONDITIONS FOR BOTH
TAFS ALONG WITH ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION TONIGHT. IF
SATURATION CAN OCCUR MONDAY MORNING...THE NAM WOULD STILL SUGGEST
THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR CEILINGS WITH MAYBE A LITTLE BIT
OF DRIZZLE COULD OCCUR AT KLSE AND JUST MVFR CEILINGS AT KRST. THE
RAP IS NOT AS PESSIMISTIC AND WOULD KEEP THINGS VFR BUT FOR
NOW...WILL MAINTAIN SOME FORECAST CONTINUITY AND SHOW A PERIOD OF
SOME MVFR CEILINGS. ONCE THE SURFACE LOW MOVES PAST THE AREA...THE
WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST WITH THE LIFT THROUGH THE
COLUMN BRIEFLY COMING TO AN END. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE CEILINGS TO
LIFT UP TO VFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. A MID LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TROUGH DOES LOOK TO COME THROUGH DURING THE EVENING AND COULD
HELP TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT RAIN IN THE DEFORMATION AREA ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW AND HAVE INCLUDED A VCSH FOR KLSE MONDAY
EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1150 PM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014
FORECAST FOCUS IS ON THE RAIN CHANCES FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUE...WITH A VARIETY OF WEATHER ELEMENTS PLAYING A ROLL IN WHERE AND
WHEN.
TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT RAMPS UP...WITH A 40 KT 850
MB JET NOSING INTO WESTERN WI BY 06Z...TRANSITIONING NORTHEAST BY
12Z. LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION LEADS ITS PARENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...925-850 MB MAX AROUND 06Z.
SOME NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST RUNNING FRONTOGENETIC RESPONSE ALONG 900
MB...IN THE VICINITY OF THE NOSE OF THE JET AND LOW LEVEL WARM PUSH.
THIS TOO IS MAXED AT 06Z. GFS/NAM MUCAPES SUGGEST 500+ J/KG OF
MUCAPE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT FOR THE LOCAL AREA. THERE WOULD SEEM TO BE
PLENTY OF LIFT AND INSTABILITY TO WARRANT AREAS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...DEPTH OF MOISTURE MIGHT PAINT A DIFFERENT
PICTURE.
LOOKING AT A SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST RUNNING X-SECTION DEPICTS A
SHALLOW INCREASE IN SATURATION TONIGHT...HOLDING UNDER 700 MB UNTIL
YOU WORK INTO NORTHERN/NORTHEAST WI. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS HAVE THIS
SATURATION UNDER AN APPRECIABLE INVERSION...WITH OMEGA CO-LOCATED IN
THE MOISTURE. HOWEVER...THE INSTABILITY IS ABOVE THE INVERSION...AND
THE CLOUD LAYER MIGHT NOT BE ABLE TO TAP THIS SOURCE OF LIFT AS A
RESULT - AT LEAST FOR PARTS OF THE AREA. IN FACT...MOST OF THE
SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE AREA SUGGEST DRIZZLE WOULD BE THE PCPN TYPE.
DEEPER CLOUD LAYER AND GREATER POTENTIAL TO RESOURCE THE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY LIES TO THE NORTHEAST...GENERALLY I-94 AND EAST/NORTH.
THINK THE SCENARIO WILL PLAY OUT WITH A 2-4 HOUR WIND OF A
SHOWER/STORM THREAT...ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET...WITH
GREATER PROBABILITIES OF DRIZZLE POST THE CONVECTIVE BAND. WILL
STICK WITH SHOWER MENTION FOR ALL PCPN CHANCES FOR SIMPLICITY.
THE SYSTEM/S SFC COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY...WITH
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH BUSTING INTO
WESTERN MN BY 00Z. RIBBON OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT RUNS ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT...PARALLEL TO ITS ORIENTATION...WITH UP TO
500 J/KG OF MUCAPE DEVELOPING JUST SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. ANTICIPATE
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT...WITH
THE BEST CHANCES JUST SOUTH/EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA.
TO THE NORTH...SFC LOW CONGEALS INTO ONE MAIN CENTER AS IT LIFTS
INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA. WESTWARD HANGING SFC TROUGH OFF THE LOW LOOKS
TO HOLD ACROSS NORTHERN MN/SOUTHERN CANADA. BITS OF UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY WILL SPIN AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL/TROUGH. EXPECT SOME PCPN
RESPONSE FROM THESE PIECES OF ENERGY AND THE SFC TROUGH. RH FIELDS
HOLD THE DEEPER SATURATION TO THE NORTH...WITH THE DEEPER LIFT.
WHILE THE MOST FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR PCPN WILL LIE NORTH AND THEN
SOUTH WITH THE FRONT...ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY AND WHERE VARIOUS BITS OF
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND WHERE THE SFC FRONT WILL BY AT XX TIME THAT
SMALL CHANCES ARE WARRANTED FOR MOST OF THE AREA MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT
/GREATER SOUTH-NORTH/.
MEANWHILE...ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE INDICATED ON THE 295 F SFC FOR THE
BETTER PART OF MON MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...CO-LOCATED WITH THE LOW
SATURATION. SIGNAL STILL FAVORS DRIZZLE. HAVE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES
IN THE I-94 CORRIDOR AS A RESULT. AGAIN...KEEPING PTYPE AS SHOWERS
FOR SIMPLICITY. THAT SAID...THIS COULD UNFOLD INTO AN AREAS OF
DRIZZLE - LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION - TYPE SCENARIO.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014
GFS/ECMWF/GEM ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SLIDING AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AFTER 06Z FRI.
WHILE TIMING WITH THE VARIOUS MODELS ARE COMPARABLE...THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES WITH HOW FAR WEST THE MAIN PIECE OF ENERGY WILL BE. THE
GEM AND GFS CURRENTLY FAVOR TRACKING THE SHORTWAVE INTO MICH...WHICH
WOULD KEEP THE BULK OF ANY RESULTING PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE 00Z EC WAS A BIT FARTHER WEST...AND THUS BRINGS A
SWATH OF PCPN INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER...12Z CAME IN WITH A SOLUTION
MORE LIKE THE GEM/GFS. MODELS HAVE BOUNCED AROUND A BIT WITHIN
THEMSELVES...NOT LENDING A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN WHETHER THE WEST OR
EASTERN SOLUTION IS BETTER. WILL STICK WITH CONSENSUS SOLUTION FOR
NOW.
COLDER AIR RETURNS MID WEEK AND WILL STICK AROUND INTO THE WEEKEND
AS THE REGION COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
EXPECTING AT OR BELOW NORMALS TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014
27.00Z SOUNDINGS FROM KDVN AND KMPX INDICATED A LOT OF DRY AIR
WAS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING AND DESPITE THE ONGOING
ISENTROPIC LIFT...SATURATION HAS YET TO OCCUR. THE 27.00Z NAM AND
27.03Z RAP NOW SUGGEST THAT IF SATURATION IS GOING TO OCCUR...IT
WILL NOT BE UNTIL AFTER 12Z MONDAY. BASED ON THE CURRENT TRENDS
AND THIS MODEL DATA...HAVE TAKEN OUT THE IFR CONDITIONS FOR BOTH
TAFS ALONG WITH ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION TONIGHT. IF
SATURATION CAN OCCUR MONDAY MORNING...THE NAM WOULD STILL SUGGEST
THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR CEILINGS WITH MAYBE A LITTLE BIT
OF DRIZZLE COULD OCCUR AT KLSE AND JUST MVFR CEILINGS AT KRST. THE
RAP IS NOT AS PESSIMISTIC AND WOULD KEEP THINGS VFR BUT FOR
NOW...WILL MAINTAIN SOME FORECAST CONTINUITY AND SHOW A PERIOD OF
SOME MVFR CEILINGS. ONCE THE SURFACE LOW MOVES PAST THE AREA...THE
WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST WITH THE LIFT THROUGH THE
COLUMN BRIEFLY COMING TO AN END. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE CEILINGS TO
LIFT UP TO VFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. A MID LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TROUGH DOES LOOK TO COME THROUGH DURING THE EVENING AND COULD
HELP TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT RAIN IN THE DEFORMATION AREA ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW AND HAVE INCLUDED A VCSH FOR KLSE MONDAY
EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1158 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014
LATE EVENING UPDATE FOR ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS TO OVERNIGHT TEMPS
AND SKY COVER TRENDS. OVERCAST CLOUD DECK CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD
AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AND MESOSCALE LAYER RH
PROGS SUPPORT THE CLOUDS LINGERING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...AND PERHAPS DROPPING SOUTH OF I-80 A BIT. HAVE ADJUSTED
SKY COVER GRIDS AND TEMPS ACCORDINGLY...WITH LOWEST TEMPS NOW
EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTH...LOW/MID 30S...WITH READINGS AROUND 40
NORTH.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 930 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014
EVENING UPDATE FOR SKY COVER AND OVERNIGHT TEMPS. CLOUD DECK
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA HANGING ON LONGER THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...AND IS BEING MODELED WELL BY THE RAP LOW
LEVEL RH PROGS. THIS MODEL MAINTAINS THE EVENING TREND OF AN
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE CLOUDS...GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80. HAVE ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT TEMPS TO DAMPEN THE
PREVIOUS NORTH TO SOUTH GRADIENT. IF THE OVERCAST DECK IS
MAINTAINED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS
WILL BE NEEDED TO WARM TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTH.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014
CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE STRONG LOW IN SOUTHERN CANADA IS COMBINING
WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION...TO BRING A BRISK FALL DAY...WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES NORTH AND MOSTLY CLEAR SOUTH TO THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES AT 2 PM ARE NEAR 50 NORTH AND NEAR 60 SOUTH. A 15 TO
25 MPH WIND IS MAKING IT FEEL SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014
LOOKING AT VISIBLE SATELLITE...THERE IS A DEFINITE DIURNAL CHARACTER
TO THE STRATUS/STRATOCUMULUS OVER THE SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF IOWA...AND
WE ARE SEEING HOLES WITH DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE DAKOTAS AS WELL.
THIS DIURNAL NATURE OF THE CLOUD DECK OVER HEAD...AND THE ONE
ADVECTING TOWARD THE REGION SHOULD ALLOW FOR SIGNIFICANT CLEARING BY
SUNSET. MODELS SWEEP THE MAIN STRATUS DECK TO TO THE NORTH AWAY FROM
THE CWA BY MIDNIGHT IN ANY CASE...THUS A MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR NIGHT
IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN UP AROUND 8 TO 12 MPH...HIGH
ENOUGH TO KEEP US FROM DROPPING TO THE 20S...BUT NON THE LESS WE
WILL BE QUITE CHILLY...WITH LOWS OF THE LOWER 30S NORTHWEST TO
AROUND 37 SOUTHEAST.
WEDNESDAY...AFTER A CHILLY START...WE WILL HAVE A CHILLY DAY. WHILE
THE CONDITIONS SHOULD NOT BE AS BRISK AS TODAY...A MORNING WINDS
AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH WILL DECREASE TOWARDS AFTERNOON TO AROUND 5 TO
10...RESULTING IN A MUCH MORE PLEASANT DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE QUITE COOL...WITH HIGHS ONLY AROUND 50 NORTH TO MID
50S FAR SOUTH.
ERVIN
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014
FORECAST FOCUS ON MUCH COLDER WEATHER BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
THURSDAY...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE CWA BUT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE
QUITE DRY. THEREFORE...THIS LOOKS TO BE EITHER SPRINKLES OR ISOLATED
LIGHT SHOWERS WITH MAINLY A TRACE EVENT AND WILL MAINTAIN THE 20 POP.
FRIDAY...OPERATIONAL MODELS SIMILAR IN SHOWING A POTENT
TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION NOTED. 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROP TO -9C IN OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES BY 12Z FRIDAY. CAN`T RULE OUT SOME FLURRIES LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A PERIOD OF STRATUS
CLOUDS. COLDER AIR WILL BE USHERED INTO THE CWA ON NORTH WINDS
GUSTING TO 30 TO 35 MPH. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE ONLY
IN THE 40S MAKING FOR A COLD AND WINDY HALLOWEEN.
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SLIDE INTO THE
CWA WITH A WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZE EXPECTED AS WE FLIP THE CALENDAR
TO NOVEMBER. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO
PLUMMET INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S AT MANY LOCATIONS. SOME COLD
DRAINAGE LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY IN THE WAPSI VALLEY MAY DROP TO AROUND
20. WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY THERE WILL BE FULL
SUNSHINE BUT ANOTHER COLD DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AGAIN.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE HIGH SHIFTS WELL TO OUR EAST WITH
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE
MIDWEST WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HOWEVER...LOW
CONFIDENCE THIS FAR OUT IN REGARD TO TIMING/INTENSITY/PLACEMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM. FOR NOW WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE IN THE 50S WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S.
HAASE
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014
06Z TAFS UPDATED TO REFLECT SKY COVER TRENDS WITH SCT-BKN LOW VFR
DECK CONTINUING OVERNIGHT AT KCID/KDBQ AND LIKELY KMLI. EXPECT
SOME CLEARING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RP KINNEY
SYNOPSIS...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...RP KINNEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
334 AM MDT WED OCT 29 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 AM MDT WED OCT 29 2014
EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW LARGE SCALE
TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY WITH AN UPSTREAM RIDGE EXTENDING NORTH ALONG THE
ROCKIES. NW FLOW IS IN PLACE OVER THE CWA BETWEEN THESE FEATURES.
AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO LINGER OVER THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A WEAK LEE TROUGH BEGINNING TO DEVELOP
OVER EASTERN COLORADO.
RIDGING WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST US THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
NW FLOW OVER THE CWA. LEE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN TODAY IN
RESPONSE TO CROSS MOUNTAIN FLOW IN THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...WITH HIGHS
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOWER 70S. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE NW FLOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. WITH A DEEP DRY
AIR MASS IN PLACE PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED. THIS TROUGH WILL
KICK A COLD FRONT SOUTH OVER THE CWA TONIGHT WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO
SEASONAL VALUES IN THE 60S ON THURSDAY.
FLOW ALOFT AMPLIFIES FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS RIDGE SHIFTS EAST
AND A LARGE SCALE TROUGH BEGINS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WESTERN US.
THERE WILL BE A FEW EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WITHIN THE MEAN
FLOW...HOWEVER A VERY DRY AIR MASS AND UNFAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL STORM
TRACKS WILL LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS FRIDAY AND THE
ASSOCIATED BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN THE
50S TO THE CWA (POSSIBLY LOWER IN THE NORTHEAST). THE AMPLIFIED
PATTERN WILL ALSO SUPPORT DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER COLORADO...AND
WITH THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE...TIGHTENING GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT
BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL LIMIT DIURNAL
COOLING.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM MDT WED OCT 29 2014
HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING TO THE EAST AND CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE
AREA THROUGH MID DAY SUNDAY. ON SATURDAY THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT
FROM THE WEST WILL PRODUCE A STIFF SOUTHERLY WIND. THIS COLD FRONT
LOOKS TO BE WEAK AND WILL PASS OVER THE FA STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME INSTABILITY AHEAD
OF THIS FRONT SO WILL ADD A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS...MOSTLY IN
THE NORTHWEST AREA OF THE FA. AFTER THE FRONT PASSES ANOTHER HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGAN TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL CAUSE THE
WINDS TO SHIFT TO WEST-NORTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH AND THE TEMPERATURES
TO DECREASE TO AT OR BELOW FREEZING EARLY ON MONDAY MORNING. AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST STARTS TO MOVE TOWARDS THE EAST MORE OF
THE AREA WILL SEE MORE SEASONAL WEATHER THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1055 PM MDT TUE OCT 28 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT BOTH TAF SITES THRU FORECAST
PERIOD. SKC BEFORE 16Z WED AND AFT 00Z THURSDAY...OTHERWISE FEW060
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS VARIABLE THRU MIDDAY...THEN WSW
5-10KTS.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...BDW
AVIATION...JN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW ORLEANS LA
358 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
.SHORT TERM...
THE START OF THE DAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH PATCHY FOG...
SOME LOCATIONS MAY BE FAIRLY DENSE. OBSERVATIONS ARE GENERALLY
AROUND 1/2 MILE AND UP. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW SLIGHT COOLING IN THE
BOTTOM COOLING IN TH BOTTOM 50MB BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. THIS SHOULD
WEAKEN THE INVERSION SOME AND THINKING IS THAT FOG DENSITY WILL NOT
GET ANY WORSE THAN CURRENT. FOR THIS REASON...WILL HOLD OFF ON DENSE
FOG ADVISORY BUT WILL MONITOR CLOSELY FOR POSSIBLE ISSUANCE.
ONE LAST DAY OF WARM FALL CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY BEFORE
COOLER AIR MASS MOVES IN. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
EAST ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH THE ASSOCIATED
SFC TROUGH AND COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND
LOUISIANA. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE TODAY AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO
THE CWA. REALLY LIKED THE OUTPUT OF THE HRRR THIS MORNING IN TERMS
OF ITS INITIALIZATION AND FCST QPF WITH NOT A WHOLE LOT IN TERMS OF
COVERAGE. MODEL SOUNDINGS AGREE WITH PWAT NEVER REACHING 1.5 INCHES
TODAY. SO HAVE DROPPED POPS ABOUT 5 TO 10 PERCENT TODAY FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST. INSTABILITY WILL BE QUITE LIMITED WHICH WILL KEEP
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO ISOLATED. SVR WEATHER WILL NOT BE AN
ISSUE.
.LONG TERM...
A SECONDARY VORT MAX WILL REALLY DIG THE UPPER TROUGH SOUTH ACROSS
THE SERN CONUS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL SEND A A
REINFORCING STRONGER FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL BE A DRY FRONT
AS MOISTURE DOESNT HAVE TIME TO RETURN BEFORE THE BOUNDARY COMES
THROUGH. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WHICH WILL DROP TEMPS BY A GOOD 10 TO 15 DEGREES FROM
MIDWEEK. EACH MODEL RUN HAS BEEN COMING IN COLDER AND COLDER SO HAVE
FOLLOWED THIS TREND AS WELL. FCST TEMPS SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
SUNDAY ARE FAIRLY CLOSE TO BIAS CORRECTED ECMWF WHICH SEEMS TO BE
THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH COLDNESS OF THE AIR MASS...WITH THE MAV
PLAYING CATCH-UP. THIS SOLUTION BRINGS NIGHTTIME LOWS TO NEAR 40
DEGREES ALONG I-12 AND NORTHWARD FOR THOSE TWO NIGHTS AND HIGHS
SATURDAY 60 TO 65. VERY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL RESULT IN
MODIFYING AIRMASS BY MONDAY WITH TEMPS QUICKLY COMING BACK UP ALMOST
TO CLIMO NORMAL. RAIN CHANCES COULD BE COMING BACK MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
MEFFER
&&
.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS REALLY SLACKING OFF
RIGHT NOW AS FRONT APPROACHES BUT AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TODAY
WINDS WILL QUICKLY VEER AROUND TO THE NORTH. IN ADDITION CAA WILL
HELP INCREASE THE WINDS EARLY THU MORNING WITH SCS CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED. WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 15 KTS UNTIL A REINFORCING
SHOT OF COLD AIR GETS HERE FRI AFTN. AS THIS OCCURS IT WILL LEAD TO
ANOTHER INCREASE IN THE WINDS AND SCY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS FRI AFTN AND PERSIST INTO SAT. /CAB/
&&
.AVIATION...BROAD RANGE OF ISSUES AND STATUSES THIS MORNING.
TERMINALS AROUND THE REGION RANGE FROM LIFR TO VFR STATUS. THIS
MORNING LOW CIGS AND VSBYS WILL IMPACT MOST TERMINALS OFF AN ON BUT
OVERALL BNDRY LAYER WINDS SHOULD MAINLY JUST LEAD TO LOW CIGS. AFTER
SUNRISE CIGS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY RISE BUT WITH THE APPROACH OF A
COLD FRONT WE MAY START TO SEE A FEW SHRA ANS TSRA DEVELOP. OVERALL
RAIN CHANCES ARE FAIRLY LOW AND WILL LIKELY KEEP MENTION OF THEM OUT
OF MOST TAFS...EXCEPTIONS OUR NERN HALF (MCB/ASD/GPT). IN ADDITION
LOOKS FROM WINDS TO VEER AROUND TO THE NW THEN N THIS AFTN BUT NOT
EXPECTING STRONG WINDS. /CAB/
&&
.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
SIGNIFICANCE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 76 50 73 48 / 30 10 10 10
BTR 80 53 75 49 / 30 10 10 10
ASD 81 55 75 45 / 30 10 10 10
MSY 81 61 75 55 / 20 20 10 10
GPT 80 56 75 48 / 30 20 10 10
PQL 81 53 74 43 / 40 20 10 10
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
1238 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 717 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014
MAJOR DEEP-LAYER CYCLOGENESIS IS WELL UNDERWAY THIS EVENING TO THE
NORTHEAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR. 500 MB LOW HAS NOW TRANSLATED EAST OF
THE DLH CWA /CENTERED NEAR LAKE NIPIGON AS OF 00Z/..AND BENT-BACK
INVERTED SURFACE TROF THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROWAL REGION OF
THIS CYCLONE IS STARTING TO COLLAPSE TO THE SOUTHEAST. IR
SATELLITE AND CANADIAN RADAR DATA IS NOW INDICATING THAT THE FAR
WESTERN EDGE OF THE LARGE SCALE DEFORMATION ZONE OVER MUCH OF
ONTARIO IS SAGGING SOUTHWARD AT AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH..AND WILL MOVE
SOUTHWARD INTO FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT LIFT/COOLING TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW WITH
THIS PRECIP BAND AS IT AFFECTS AREAS GENERALLY EAST OF THE HIGHWAY
53 CORRIDOR. WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR THINGS RATHER CLOSELY THIS
EVENING..AS THERE IS AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SLUSHY
INCHES OF ACCUMULATION IN A FEW PLACES DURING THE MAX INTENSITY OF
PRECIP..WHCIH SHOULD OCCUR ROUGHLY BETWEEN 8 PM AND 2 AM.
ELSEWHERE FARTHER SOUTH..THERE HAVE BEEN MANY REPORTS OF LIGHT
SNOW MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN FOR SHORT PERIODS OF TIME ACROSS THE
SW TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA. KDLH CC/ZDR DATA SUGGESTS THAT THE
AMBIENT FREEZING LEVEL IS ONLY A FEW HUNDRED FEET AGL..AND IT
APPEARS AS THOUGH ANY SMALL SCALE ENHANCEMENT TO PRECIP RATES IS
SUFFICIENT TO RESULT IN LOCAL DIABATIC COOLING UNDERNEATH SMALL
SCALE HEAVIER SHOWERS TO ALLOW A MIX OR ALL SNOW TO REACH THE
GROUND. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS LOBE
OF RADAR ECHOES TRANSLATES ESEWD. HOWEVER..WITH SURFACE TEMPS IN
THE MID 30S/RELATIVELY WEAK SNOWFALL RATES..AND WARM AMBIENT
GROUND TEMPS..ABOUT ALL THE ACCUMULATION THAT IS EXPECTED IN AREAS
FARTHER SOUTH IS SOME CRUSTING ON VEHICLES AND OTHER ELEVATED AND
EXPOSED SURFACES.
WE HAVE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST TO REFLECT THE
MORE SNOWY SOLUTION ACROSS THE NORTH..ALONG WITH HIGHER POPS AND
SIGHTLY COLDER TEMPS. UPDATES ARE ALREADY AVAILABLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014
TONIGHT...THE LARGE SCALE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP
SFC/MID LVL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL KEEP A CANOPY OF LOW CLOUDS AND
PRECIP OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT. AS MID LVL LOW MIGRATES EAST...THE
SFC TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTH FROM ONTARIO THIS EVENING. PTYPE WILL
TRANSITION TO A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW AND PERHAPS A PERIOD OF WET SNOW.
VERY TOUGH TO DETERMINE POTENTIAL AMOUNTS THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS IS
DUE TO THE MARGINAL BDRY LYR THERMAL PROFILES AND DEPENDENCY OF
DIABATIC COOLING/SNOW PRODUCTION UPON AREAS OF ENHANCED VERTICAL
MOTION. HI-RES PTYPE OUTPUT FROM HRRR IS RATHER SLOW TO MAKE THE
TRANSITION TO FROZEN PRECIP OVERNIGHT. THE NAM12/RUC13 ARE FASTER IN
COOLING THE NEAR SFC LAYER SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT THAT GREAT. GIVEN
THAT SNOW HAS BEEN OCCURRING JUST WEST OF THE REGION DURING THE
DIURNAL WARM PERIOD...WOULD THINK THAT WITH ADVENT OF NOCTURNAL BDRY
LYR COOLING...WE SHOULD SEE THE TRANSITION OCCUR IN MOST OF NE MN
ZONES BY MID/LATE EVENING. SOME LOCATIONS MAY SEE UP TO AN INCH ON
ELEVATED DECKS OR GRASSY SURFACES. THE PROBABILISTIC PRODUCTS FROM
SREF AND NARRE-TL FAVOR THE ARROWHEAD AND THE GOGEBIC RANGE FOR
SOME ACCUMULATION. GUSTY WINDS WILL REMAIN BASED ON BUFKIT MOMENTUM
PROFILES SUPPORTED BY THE PRESENCE OF A FAIRLY LARGE SFC PRESS
GRADIENT OVER THE CWA UNTIL EARLY MORNING.
TOMORROW...GRADUAL CLEARING OCCURS FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE SFC/MID
LVL LOWS SHIFT WELL EAST OF THE REGION. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER DRYING
IS FCST...MAJORITY OF NWP SUGGESTS RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN
A SHALLOW LAYER NEAR 2K TO 3K FT. WILL MAINTAIN A MOSTLY CLOUDY
FCST FOR NOW. PRECIP SHOULD EVENTUALLY DIMINISH EXCEPT OVER ERN
EDGE OF CWA.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014
A WEAK MID LEVEL S/W AND ASSOCIATED INVERTED SFC TROUGH WILL TRACK
EWD THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST WED NIGHT/THUR MORNING AND PRODUCE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW THROUGH THE REGION. A MORE POTENT
UPPER S/W WILL DROP IN FROM THE NORTH AND USHER IN ADDITIONAL HIGHER
CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS THUR AFTERNOON...EVENTUALLY CHANGING OVER
TO ALL SNOW THUR NIGHT AND FRI MORNING. THE TRACK OF THE LOW...FROM
NRN MANITOBA SEWD THROUGH WRN ONTARIO AND INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES
WILL ALLOW THE BULK OF THE PRECIP TO FALL ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE LARGE SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE WILL
OCCUR OVER WRN ONTARIO...CLIPPING THE ARROWHEAD AND IN THROUGH NRN
WI AND EWD INTO THE U.P. OF MICH. A SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE REGION AS THE S/W MOVES THROUGH AND MODIFIES THERMAL
PROFILES ENOUGH TO CHANGE THE RAIN SHOWERS OVER TO SNOW LATE
THURSDAY...AND ESPECIALLY THUR NIGHT/FRI MORNING. COULD SEE AROUND 1
INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATE OVER THE ARROWHEAD...WITH TRACE AMTS AROUND
THE TWIN PORTS. THE AREA EXPECTING TO SEE THE MOST WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE ACROSS THE SNOW BELT REGION OF ASHLAND AND IRON COUNTIES
WHERE LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL ALLOW A QUICK 1-2 INCHES TO FALL DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FAVORABLE NORTH WINDS AND STEEP/MOIST BL LAPSE
RATES WILL ALL CONTRIBUTE TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER SNOW AMTS IN THIS AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN QUICKLY FROM THE WEST ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST DURING THE REST OF THE DAY FRIDAY AND
FURTHER EWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES FRI NIGHT/SAT MORNING. ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THIS HIGH...A SWLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY
ACROSS THE REGION AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE
ROCKIES DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. WILL START TO SEE THE INFLUENCE FROM
THIS NEXT SYSTEM FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN. THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SLIGHTLY EARLY IN THE PERIOD...AND THEN WARM
GRADUALLY THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL TOP
OUT IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER
30S. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL DROP INTO THE 30S...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND SLIGHTLY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS BACK
INTO THE 40S AND LOWS IN THE 30S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
PRECIPITATION IN THE DECAYING DEFORMATION ZONE ACROSS NE MN HAS
RAPIDLY WEAKENED IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY THIS EVENING..BUT STILL
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS PERIST AND WILL CONTINUE TO
FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT ALONG WITH MVFR/IFR CEILINGS. CLOUDS WILL BE
SLOW TO CLEAR..IF AT ALL ON WEDNESDAY WITH MVFR CEILINGS PERSISTING
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE MAY SPREAD SHOWERS INTO THE
KBRD AREA AFTER 00Z THRUSDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 35 44 27 38 / 10 20 20 0
INL 26 37 22 38 / 10 30 10 0
BRD 32 48 25 38 / 20 20 10 0
HYR 33 47 29 40 / 10 30 30 10
ASX 33 47 30 40 / 10 30 40 20
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR LSZ121-
146>148.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
LSZ144-145.
&&
$$
UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...CANNON
LONG TERM...HUYCK
AVIATION...LE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
343 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR THU THROUGH FRI.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 340 AM WEDNESDAY...
WATER VAPOR AND 00Z UPPER AIR DATA REVEAL A POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH
ALOFT...WHICH INCLUDES SHORTWAVE TROUGHS IN BOTH THE NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAMS...FROM SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY.
MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED AT 07Z JUST
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. ASIDE FROM SOUTHERN STREAM-GENERATED CIRRUS
LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER...AND ALONG AND POST(ANA)-FRONTAL
SHOWERS...ALSO REMAINED WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS.
A BLEND OF THE SLOWER ECMWF AND RAP FORECAST SOLUTIONS IS FAVORED
GIVEN THAT THE ASSOCIATED COOLER POST-FRONTAL AIR HAS STILL NOT
REACHED THE MOUNTAINS...AND THE FLOW ALOFT IS FRONT-PARALLEL/
SOUTHWESTERLY. AS SUCH...MODEST INSOLATION THROUGH THE CIRRUS AND
PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER FROM THE WEST
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 70S WEST TO LOWER 80S
EAST...WITH EXPECTED FROPA TIMING IN THE NW PIEDMONT BETWEEN 18-
21Z...THE TRIANGLE BETWEEN 21-23Z...AND THE COASTAL PLAIN AND
EASTERN SANDHILLS BETWEEN 23-02Z. WHILE THE ONGOING SHOWERS MAY
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS THEY APPROACH AND MOVE EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS...REDEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY AS THE DIVERGENT RIGHT
ENTRANCE OF A JET STREAK IN THE NORTHERN STREAM SPREADS EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL NC AND PROVIDES DEEPER/COUPLED ASCENT ATOP THE FRONTAL
CIRCULATION THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE COUPLED FORCING...WEAK LAPSE
RATES AND ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY WILL OTHERWISE HINDER PRECIPITATION
INTENSITY...AND ONLY AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO IS EXPECTED AMIDST AN
OTHERWISE BAND OF SHOWERS.
THOUGH SOME 4-8 THOUSAND FT CLOUDINESS WILL LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT
THROUGH THIS EVENING OWING TO THE ONLY SLOW APPROACH OF THE TROUGH
ALOFT...CLEARING WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD EAST OVERNIGHT. CAA-DRIVEN
LOWS MOSTLY BETWEEN 45 TO 55 DEGREES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM WEDNESDAY...
SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND UNDERLYING 1020 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...
BEHIND THE TROUGH ALOFT FORECAST TO MOVE INTO AND AFFECT THE EASTERN
US DURING THE NEAR TERM...WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEYS
AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES ON THU. THE RESULT WILL BE SUNNY AND
COOLER CONDITIONS...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE
60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES.
FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATES ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE PAC NW
THIS MORNING WILL AMPLIFY SOUTHEASTWARD AND INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS BY FRI MORNING...WHILE A MUCH STRONGER ONE IN A
PRONOUNCED EARLY SEASON ARCTIC STREAM AMPLIFIES SOUTH SOUTHEASTWARD
FROM CENTRAL CANADA TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES DURING THE SAME TIME.
DESPITE THE ASSOCIATED STEADILY FALLING HEIGHTS ALOFT IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE PAIR OF AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS...PRECEDING
DRYNESS/LIMITED DEEP MOISTURE SUGGESTS THE MAIN IMPACT THROUGH FRI
MORNING SHOULD BE MERELY AN UPTICK IN MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS AS THE
FLOW ALOFT BACKS TO SOUTHWESTERLY THU NIGHT...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 40.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM WEDNESDAY...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA EARLY ON FRIDAY... AHEAD OF
STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVING IN TO THE BASE OF A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
US. RECENT MODEL TRENDS HAVE SHOWN THIS SHORTWAVE MOVING MUCH
FURTHER SOUTHWARD THAN PREVIOUS RUNS... AND INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED
MIDLEVEL FLOW... WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW CROSSING THE AREA AND
INDUCING COASTAL SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT. THE RESULTING STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING BLUSTERY WINDS SATURDAY. IF THIS
SCENARIO PLAYS OUT... WE WILL SEE A COLD AND WET DAY... WITH HIGHS
IN THE 40S. HAVE BEGUN TO TREND HIGHS LOWER... AND INCREASED TO
CHANCE POPS SATURDAY. AS NOTED BY WPC... THE FORECASTED PATTERN IS
QUITE ANOMALOUS... AND THEREFORE CONFIDENCE REMAINS BELOW NORMAL AT
THIS TIME.
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW WILL BRING CLEARING
CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY... WHICH WILL WORK TO PARTIALLY OFFSET COLD
ADVECTION... WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 50S. STRONG AND COLD HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN TO THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY WILL MOVE DIRECTLY
OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY... WITH FROST AND POSSIBLY FREEZE POTENTIAL
SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS. THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST ON
TUESDAY... BEGINNING A MODERATING TREND IN TEMPERATURES... WITH
HIGHS BACK IN THE 60S MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 220 AM WEDNESDAY...
ASIDE FROM A MEDIUM PROBABILITY OF LIFR-IFR STRATUS AT KFAY
BETWEEN 10-14Z...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL A COLD FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED BAND OF ALONG AND POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS - AND
ASSOCIATED IFR-MVFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS -
MOVES EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
SHOWERS AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST ONLY AROUND 3
HOURS AT ANY ONE LOCATION. A PERIOD OF VFR CEILINGS BETWEEN
4-8 THOUSAND FT WILL LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS EVEN AFTER THE SHOWERS
AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS MOVE EAST. OTHERWISE...SW SURFACE WINDS
BETWEEN 7-13 KTS...STRONGEST AND OCCASIONALLY GUSTY INTO THE UPPER
TEENS KTS AT FAY AND RWI...WILL VEER TO WNW OR NW BEHIND THE
FRONT.
OUTLOOK: THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG POLAR FRONT AND SUBSEQUENT
DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG COASTAL LOW WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF
RAIN...AND BLUSTERY NW WINDS...FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...SEC
AVIATION...MWS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
340 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
TIMING OF THE EXIT OF THE LARGE CLOUD SHIELD OVER THE STATE...THEN
CHANCES OF SHOWERS TODAY ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST.
CURRENTLY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED FROM NORTHERN
MANITOBA ACROSS THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS AND INTO NEBRASKA. A LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF HUDSON BAY. A
LARGE CLOUD SHIELD OF WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
EXTENDED WESTWARD TO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. TO THE WEST...A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDED ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES FROM A
LOW OVER ALBERTA SOUTHWARD ACROSS MONTANA AND WYOMING.
THE CLOUD DECK CONTINUED TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE HUDSON
BAY LOW CONTINUES MOVING NORTHEAST...AND AS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
RIDGING MOVES INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA FROM THE WEST. LATEST SAT
PICS INDICATE THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CLOUD DECK WAS NEAR
STANLEY...TO MANDAN/BISMARCK...TO NEAR FORT YATES. KEPT THE MENTION
OF PATCHY FOG IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. AS SKIES CLEAR...RESIDUAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPS THAT MAY DROP
QUICKLY...CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SHOULD HAVE THESE CONDITIONS IN THOSE
FEW HOURS BEFORE/AROUND SUNRISE.
THE LATEST HRRR RUNS INDICATE THE CLOUD DECK SHOULD CLEAR THE
JAMESTOWN AREA BEFORE NOON. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE LOW LEVEL
RELATIVE HUMIDITY FIELD OF THE NAM.
FOLLOWING THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST IS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO ENTER WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA BEFORE/AROUND NOON...AND MOVE EAST ACROSS THE STATE DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE STATE.
EXPECTING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA BEGINNING LATE MORNING IN THE WEST...AND KEPT CHANCES IN FOR
ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
LINGERING CHANCES IN THE JAMES VALLEY THIS EVENING.
TONIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW THE EXITING SURFACE LOW...AND WINDS
WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY...GOOD COLD ADVECTION WILL BEGIN...AND A
LARGE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE GREAT PLAINS WILL
GENERATE DRY CONDITIONS OVER NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST AS COOL CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION.
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG A SHORTWAVE TO LIFT
SOMEWHERE INTO EASTERN MONTANA/WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE ECMWF/GEM HAVE WEAKENED THE
SHORTWAVE AND HAVE NUDGED ITS TRACK A LITTLE FARTHER WEST INTO
MONTANA. HOWEVER...THE LATEST GFS IS SLOWER AND STRONGER WITH THE
PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM...PLACING IT OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
MONDAY. IF THE GFS WERE TO VERIFY...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WOULD BE
AN ISSUE OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY.
GIVEN THE MODEL TO MODEL AND RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCIES...WILL
CONTINUE TO FORECAST A MODEL BLEND. GIVEN THE RECENT WEAKENING
ECMWF AND GEM TRENDS...WILL NOT GET TOO EXCITED FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES SUNDAY-MONDAY. IT IS
EXPECTED THAT LATER RUNS OF THE GFS WILL BEGIN TO TREND TOWARDS
THE ECMWF AS IT HAS ALL SEASON. NEVERTHELESS...WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN FORECAST TUESDAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING
DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1255 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
MVFR TO LOW VFR STRATUS HAS CLEARED AT CROSBY...KISN...KDIK AND GLEN
ULLIN. CLEARING IS NEAR TIOGA AND SHOULD CLEAR AT KBIS AROUND 08Z
AND AT KMOT AROUND 10Z. KEPT MVFR VSBYS IN FOG AT KBIS AND KMOT ON
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STRATUS. CLEARING AT KJMS AROUND 16Z.
SOME SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS TODAY BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH
REGARDING MENTION IN TAFS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...JV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
331 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
UPPER LOW MOVING INTO EASTERN ONTARIO EARLY THIS MORNING. ISSUE
TODAY WILL BE CLOUD TRENDS AND THEN CHANCE OF PRECIP WITH NEXT
WEAK SHORT WAVE FOR LATER TODAY/THIS. WRAPAROUND STRATOCU FIELD
BEHIND UPPER LOW EXTENDS BACK OVER ALL OF SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND
THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH DAKOTA AND ALL OF MINNESOTA. BACKEDGE
HAS BEEN CLEARING SLOWLY AND IS NEAR A STANLEY TO BISMARCK LINE
AND TIMING TOOLS SHOW AT ITS CURRENT RATE IT WILL REACH WRN FCST
AREA BY 15Z AND INTO THE RRV BUT PERHAPS NOT AS LATE AS 21-23Z. USING
THE SFC RIDGE AXIS AS BACKEDGE OF THE STRATOCU AND LATEST HRRR IT
WOULD HAVE CLEARING TRYING TO COME INTO THE VALLEY 18Z-19Z. CLOUDS
WILL PUT A DAMPER ON TEMPS. NEXT SHORT WAVE IS PACIFIC MOISTURE IN
NATURE AND IS MOVING INTO WESTERN MONTANA. THIS WILL MOVE INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE TODAY AND SPREAD THRU ERN ND THIS
EVENING AND INTO MINNESOTA TONIGHT. EXPECT A FEW RAIN SHOWERS WITH
THIS SYSTEM THOUGH WITH MOISTURE PACIFIC IN NATURE AND MOSTLY MID
LEVEL BASED AMOUNTS OF PRECIP WILL BE QUITE LOW...A FEW HUNDREDTHS
AT BEST. TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM IS A BIT SLOWER THAN IT SHOWED ON
PAST DAYS.
BEHIND THIS SHORT WAVE...A FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE NOW WELL NORTH
OF YELLOWKNIFE NWT WILL MOVE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AND TOWARD THE MN
ARROWHEAD THURSDAY AFTN. EXPECT A FAST MOVING BUT SHARP COLD FRONT
TO DROP SOUTH THRU THE AREA THURSDAY ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF GUSTY
NORTH WINDS. MODELS HAVE HAVE TRENDED A BIT COLDER WITH THIS
SYSTEM AND ALSO A BIT FARTHER WEST WITH SFC HIGH PLACEMENT. WILL
KEEP SOME LOW POPS IN THE NORTHEASTERN FCST AREA FOR RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS THURSDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTN. ALSO TRIMMED HIGHS THURSDAY
A FEW DEGREES AND UPPED WINDS A BIT HIGHER THAN BLENDED SOLNS DUE
TO TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND QUICK SHOT OF STRONG 850 MB COLD
ADVECTION.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
850 MB TEMPS DROP TO -10C BY 00Z FRI AS HIGH SETTLES SOUTH INTO
CNTRL ND. EXPECT A CLEAR SKY FOR MOST AREAS WITH COLDEST VALUES
AND LESS WIND IN CNTRL-ERN ND. PAST FEW RUNS HAVE SHOWN A BIT
COLDER AIRMASS...AND WITH THAT DROPPED LOWS FOR FRI AM A FEW
DEGREES...BUT NOT QUITE AS COLD AS SOME MODELS. GENERALLY WENT
15-20F FOR ERN ND AND 20-25 IN MN. FRIDAY WILL BE A CHILLY DAY
WITH SUNSHINE WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE 30S. RETURN FLOW SETS UP LATE
FRI AFTN IN WRN FCST AND SPREAD EAST FRI NIGHT. ALSO SOME INCREASE
IN HIGH CLOUDS FRI NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST.
FOR SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON
SATURDAY WILL KEEP THINGS QUIET PCPN WISE BUT IT SHOULD BE A LITTLE
BREEZY. START TO GET INTO SOUTHWEST FLOW ON SUNDAY AS A 500MB TROUGH
DIGS INTO THE ROCKIES. MODELS DIFFER A LITTLE IN HOW TO HANDLE THE
ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THIS SYSTEM WITH THE ECMWF/GEM SHOWING TWO
WEAK SFC LOWS...ONE OVER WESTERN ND AND THE SECOND OVER EASTERN
COLORADO. GFS HAS ONE COMBINED LOW OVER WESTERN NE. GUIDANCE FAVORS
THE ECMWF/GEM SOLUTION WHICH WOULD HAVE SOME WEAK SHOWERS OVER THE
WESTERN FA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NORTHERN LOW. BY MONDAY
EACH MODEL DIFFERS QUITE A BIT WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING THE NORTHERN
SFC LOW DOMINANT WHILE THE GEM SHOWS THE SOUTHERN ONE MORE SO AND
THE GFS IN BETWEEN. THIS TRANSLATES INTO THE ECMWF BYPASSING MOST OF
THE FA WITH ANY PCPN...THE GFS RIGHT OVER THE FA AND THE GEM OVER
THE SOUTHERN FA. WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THIS WORKS OUT WITH LATER
RUNS. BY TUE DRY WEATHER SHOULD RETURN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014
MVFR CONDITIONS WEST...IFR CONDITIONS EAST WILL PERSIST THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT ON WED. THE CURRENT CLEARING LINE
IN WESTERN ND WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT...REACHING THE
WESTERN AREA AROUND 12Z...THEN INTO THE VALLEY AROUND 18Z. THEN
SOME MID CLOUDS MAY INCREASE LATER WED AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE. WINDS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AND SHIFT TO A SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION WED AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...GODON/RIDDLE
AVIATION...DK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1254 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1255 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED FROM WESTERN MANITOBA
ACROSS THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS AND INTO NEBRASKA. WINDS EAST OF THE
RIDGE WERE NORTHWESTERLY...WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ALONG THE
RIDGE AXIS...AND SOUTHEAST/SOUTH WINDS WEST OF THE RIDGE.
THE CLOUD DECK CONTINUED TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST. LATEST SAT PICS
INDICATE THE EDGE OF THE CLOUD DECK WAS NEAR CROSBY/TIOGA...JUST
EAST OF GLEN ULLIN...TO NEAR MOBRIDGE SD. TEMPERATURES ARE THE
TRICKIEST PORTION OF THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...AS TEMPS HAD DROPPED INTO THE TEENS IN SOME OF THE CLEAR
AREAS OF THE SOUTHWEST. EXPECT THAT WHEN WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY IN
THE WEST...THIS WILL ALLOW ENOUGH MIXING TO RAISE TEMPS THERE OR AT
LEAST KEEP TEMPS FROM CONTINUING TO DROP.
KEPT THE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. AS SKIES
CLEAR...RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
TEMPS THAT MAY DROP QUICKLY...CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SHOULD HAVE THESE
CONDITIONS IN THOSE FEW HOURS BEFORE/AROUND SUNRISE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 949 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014
CLOUD CONTINUE TO CLEAR SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST. UPDATED SKY
GRIDS TO KEEP CLOUDS ACROSS THE EAST MOST OF THE NIGHT. WHERE
SKIES HAVE CLEARED IN THE WEST...TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN QUICKLY
INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES HERE.
STILL MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG CENTRAL AS STRATUS CLEARS WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES REMAINING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 649 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014
STRATUS DECK CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
EVENING. THE SOUTHWEST HAS CLEARED WITH NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL
EXPECTED TO CLEAR WEST TO EAST THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. KEPT A MENTION OF
PATCHY FOG ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STRATUS DECK LATER TONIGHT
WITH LIGHT WINDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014
CLOUD TRENDS THROUGH TONIGHT AND A WARMER DAY ON WEDNESDAY HIGHLIGHT
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.
THE RAP AND HRRR HAVE HANDLED THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS WELL THROUGHOUT
TODAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND WILL FOLLOW THEIR MOST RECENT
ITERATIONS FOR CLOUD COVER THROUGH TONIGHT...NAMELY THEIR 18-19 UTC
RUNS. STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY ERODE FAR SOUTHWEST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...NOT CLEARING THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY UNTIL CLOSER TO 12
UTC WEDNESDAY MORNING. DID ADD AREAS OF FOG ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA TONIGHT ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STRATUS WHERE WINDS
BECOME CALM. WILL ALSO CONTINUE THE PATCHY DRIZZLE MENTION
DOWNSTREAM OF LAKE SAKAKAWEA EARLY THIS EVENING WITH STREAMERS
CONTINUING TO COME OFF THE LAKE. RETURN FLOW COMMENCES TONIGHT
ACROSS THE WEST AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA. THIS
FRONT WILL PROPAGATE THROUGH THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 50S...WITH POSSIBLY A
FEW READINGS IN THE 60S ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT...GENERALLY
ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS AREA WIDE AS A WEAK IMPULSE INTERACTS WITH THE
FRONT.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014
A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS A SLOW
MODERATING TREND GETS UNDERWAY...FOLLOWED BY A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. MUCH COLDER AIR CAN BE EXPECTED LATE
IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL. A
HEADLINE MAY BE WARRANTED IN THE FUTURE IF THE SNOW/WINDS MAINTAIN
CONSISTENCY IN FUTURE RUNS.
AN EXITING LOW PRESSURE WEDNESDAY EVENING OVER THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY WILL PROVIDE FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH 06Z
THURSDAY BEFORE ENDING. THEREAFTER...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL
DOMINATE WITH A DRY PATTERN...SHIFTING FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
THURSDAY INTO NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY NIGHT...AND THEN EAST OF NORTH
DAKOTA SATURDAY. THE WARMEST POCKET OF AIR SLIDES THROUGH SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT VIA A SOUTHWEST FLOW...AHEAD OF A SHARP COLD
FRONTAL SYSTEM WHICH PASSES THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY. IN DOING SO...EXPECT A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN AGREEMENT
WITH THE TRACK OF THE UPPER/SURFACE LOW SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...TAKING
IT ON A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TRACK FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND THEN ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA. THE GEM
TAKES A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK...MOVING IT FROM SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA
ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA RESULTING IN
A MORE BROAD/WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EVENT. ALL SOLUTIONS HOWEVER
SHOW STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS.
REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN BLOWING/FALLING SNOW MAY BE THE GREATEST
IMPACT AND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED IN FUTURE RUNS FOR POSSIBLE
HEADLINES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1255 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
MVFR TO LOW VFR STRATUS HAS CLEARED AT CROSBY...KISN...KDIK AND GLEN
ULLIN. CLEARING IS NEAR TIOGA AND SHOULD CLEAR AT KBIS AROUND 08Z
AND AT KMOT AROUND 10Z. KEPT MVFR VSBYS IN FOG AT KBIS AND KMOT ON
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STRATUS. CLEARING AT KJMS AROUND 16Z.
SOME SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS TODAY BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH
REGARDING MENTION IN TAFS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...JV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
410 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT OVER NORTHWESTERN PA WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE REST
OF THE STATE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. A POTENT
SHORTWAVE WILL CARVE OUT A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS AS
IT DIVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...REPLACED BY A RIDGE
BUILDING ALONG THE EAST COAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
COLD FRONT PUSHING THRU CENTRAL PA EARLY THIS AM...ACCOMPANIED BY
A PERIOD A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS. VEERING UPPER LVL FLOW AHEAD OF
SHORTWAVE OVR THE MISS VALLEY WILL CAUSE FRONT TO SLOW THIS
MORNING. LATEST NEAR TERM MDL DATA AND UPSTREAM RADAR DATA
SUPPORTS A NARROW BAND OF CATEGORICAL POPS EARLY THIS MORNING FROM
THE SC MTNS NE INTO THE MIDDLE SUSQ VALLEY. TEMPS COASTING
DOWNWARD WEST OF FRONT AND BLEND OF LATEST LAMP AND HRRR DATA
SUPPORTS TEMPS BY DAWN RANGING FROM THE M40S OVR THE NW MTNS TO
THE U50S ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
ALL MDL DATA PUSHES COLD FRONT EAST OF THE REGION LATER THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...THERMALLY DIRECT CIRCULATION BENEATH UPPER JET
ENTRANCE REGION IS RESULTING IN POST-FRONTAL 700-850MB FGEN
FORCING IN ALL THE MDLS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN PERSISTENT SHOWERS
ACROSS THE SE COUNTIES INTO THIS AFTN. HAVE RAISED POPS TO NEAR 90
PCT ACROSS THIS REGION TODAY...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE 00Z GEFS.
BRIGHTENING SKIES SHOULD EVENTUALLY OVERSPREAD THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN COUNTIES BY LATE AFTN. HOWEVER...LAKE EFFECT STRATOCU
WILL ALSO BE FORMING IN THE NW...AS CHILLY AIR FLOWS OVER STILL-
WARM LAKE ERIE. THE CLOUD COVER AND CAA SHOULD TRANSLATE TO LITTLE
WARMING FROM AM LOWS TODAY. CONSALL INDICATES HIGHS FROM THE L50S
NW TO L60S OVR THE SUSQ VALLEY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODEL CONSENSUS IS STILL ON TRACK FOR A QUICK MOVING CLIPPER
SYSTEM DROPPING FROM CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES AND ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL PA LATE FRIDAY. THIS WILL
DELIVER A POTENT SHOT OF COLD AIR FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...AND PERHAPS THE FIRST MEASURABLE SNOWFALL FOR PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN PA. CERTAINLY SOME STRENGTH AND TIMING
ISSUES NEED TO BE RESOLVED WITH THE SUCCESSIVE SHORTWAVES. HOWEVER
THE LATEST EC AND THE GFS SUGGESTS THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL
BE LATE FRIDAY THRU EARLY SATURDAY. THE NEXT QUESTION IS WILL THE
PRECIPITATION BE RAIN OR SNOW. IT CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE A MIX OF
BOTH. THE COLDER AIR ON THE BACKSIDE WILL LIKELY CHANGE THE SHRA
TO A PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WEST
AND NORTH...FOLLOWED BY BLUSTERY AND MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS
SATURDAY WITH LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVR
THE NW MTNS. LATEST 850 MB TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED A BIT TO -4C
TO -8C. SO DEPENDING IF THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES THAT SHOULD
DETERMINE HOW MUCH...IF ANY...SNOW FALLS DURING THIS PERIOD. THE
EC AND GFS DIVERGE LATE THIS COMING WEEKEND...WITH THE GFS TAKING
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW FURTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC BEFORE MOVING IT
NORTH...WHERE THE EC DRAGS THE LOW ALONG THE COAST. GIVEN THE
CLEAR SKIES...HOWEVER SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE COLD. EITHER
WAY...DRY AIR WILL FILTER IN EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING A WARMING
TREND WITH FAIR WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SFC COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM KBGM TO KIPT AND KAOO AT 07Z.
THIS FRONT WAS PRECEDED BY AN AREA OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
WITH CLOUD BASES MAINLY AOA 7 KFT AGL...AND VSBYS OF 6SM OR
GREATER.
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE MTNS OF WESTERN PENN
TODAY /FROM KJST NORTH TO KBFD/...THANKS TO OROGRAPHIC LIFT OF A
COOLER/WESTERLY FLOW CONTAINING LIMITED LLVL MOISTURE.
BRIEF...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THROUGH 15Z TODAY
INVOF KMDT AND KLNS AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH ACCOMPANIED
BY SHOWERS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE INTENSITY.
EXPECT WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS TO PICK UP SOME BY LATE THIS
MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL
VALLEYS AND SUSQUEHANNA REGION UNDER A BKN HIGH-BASED STRATO CU
AND ALTO CU CLOUD DECK.
OUTLOOK...
THUR...MVFR CIGS WEST EARLY...THEN VFR. VFR EAST.
FRI...VFR/MVFR EARLY WITH SHOWERS POSS WEST...BCMG MVFR/IFR FRI
NGT WITH NW WIND GUSTS 20-30 MPH AND RA/SN SHOWERS.
SAT...MVFR/IFR WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WEST. VARYING VFR-
MVFR CONDS CENTRAL/EAST WITH OCNL -SHSN AND FLURRIES. NW WIND
GUSTS 25-35 MPH.
SUN...BECOMING VFR...WINDS DECREASING.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
219 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT OVER NORTHWESTERN PA WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE REST
OF THE STATE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. A POTENT
SHORTWAVE WILL CARVE OUT A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS AS
IT DIVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...REPLACED BY A RIDGE
BUILDING ALONG THE EAST COAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
COLD FRONT PUSHING THRU CENTRAL PA EARLY THIS AM...ACCOMPANIED BY
A PERIOD A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS. VEERING UPPER LVL FLOW AHEAD OF
SHORTWAVE OVR THE MISS VALLEY WILL CAUSE FRONT TO SLOW THIS
MORNING. LATEST NEAR TERM MDL DATA AND UPSTREAM RADAR DATA
SUPPORTS A NARROW BAND OF CATEGORICAL POPS EARLY THIS MORNING FROM
THE SC MTNS NE INTO THE MIDDLE SUSQ VALLEY. TEMPS COASTING
DOWNWARD WEST OF FRONT AND BLEND OF LATEST LAMP AND HRRR DATA
SUPPORTS TEMPS BY DAWN RANGING FROM THE M40S OVR THE NW MTNS TO
THE U50S ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
ALL MDL DATA PUSHES COLD FRONT EAST OF THE REGION LATER THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...THERMALLY DIRECT CIRCULATION BENEATH UPPER JET
ENTRANCE REGION IS RESULTING IN POST-FRONTAL 700-850MB FGEN
FORCING IN ALL THE MDLS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN PERSISTENT SHOWERS
ACROSS THE SE COUNTIES INTO THIS AFTN. HAVE RAISED POPS TO NEAR 90
PCT ACROSS THIS REGION TODAY...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE 00Z GEFS.
BRIGHTENING SKIES SHOULD EVENTUALLY OVERSPREAD THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN COUNTIES BY LATE AFTN. HOWEVER...LAKE EFFECT STRATOCU
WILL ALSO BE FORMING IN THE NW...AS CHILLY AIR FLOWS OVER STILL-
WARM LAKE ERIE. THE CLOUD COVER AND CAA SHOULD TRANSLATE TO LITTLE
WARMING FROM AM LOWS TODAY. CONSALL INDICATES HIGHS FROM THE L50S
NW TO L60S OVR THE SUSQ VALLEY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODEL CONSENSUS IS STILL ON TRACK FOR A QUICK MOVING CLIPPER
SYSTEM DROPPING FROM CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES AND ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL PA LATE FRIDAY. THIS WILL
DELIVER A POTENT SHOT OF COLD AIR FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...AND PERHAPS THE FIRST MEASURABLE SNOWFALL FOR PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN PA. CERTAINLY SOME STRENGTH AND TIMING
ISSUES NEED TO BE RESOLVED WITH THE SUCCESSIVE SHORTWAVES. HOWEVER
THE LATEST EC AND THE GFS SUGGESTS THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL
BE LATE FRIDAY THRU EARLY SATURDAY. THE NEXT QUESTION IS WILL THE
PRECIPITATION BE RAIN OR SNOW. IT CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE A MIX OF
BOTH. THE COLDER AIR ON THE BACKSIDE WILL LIKELY CHANGE THE SHRA
TO A PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WEST
AND NORTH...FOLLOWED BY BLUSTERY AND MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS
SATURDAY WITH LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVR
THE NW MTNS. LATEST 850 MB TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED A BIT TO -4C
TO -8C. SO DEPENDING IF THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES THAT SHOULD
DETERMINE HOW MUCH...IF ANY...SNOW FALLS DURING THIS PERIOD. THE
EC AND GFS DIVERGE LATE THIS COMING WEEKEND...WITH THE GFS TAKING
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW FURTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC BEFORE MOVING IT
NORTH...WHERE THE EC DRAGS THE LOW ALONG THE COAST. GIVEN THE
CLEAR SKIES...HOWEVER SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE COLD. EITHER
WAY...DRY AIR WILL FILTER IN EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING A WARMING
TREND WITH FAIR WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
03Z TAFS SENT.
SOME ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO TIMING OF THE SHOWERS.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
GUSTY WINDS HAVE WEAKEN ACROSS THE AREA AS OF 00Z.
MAIN CONCERN NOW IS SHOWERS WITH MVFR AND PERHAPS IFR
CONDITIONS FOR A BRIEF TIME...MAINLY AT BFD WITH COLD
FRONT. PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM...BUT LEFT OUT
OF THE BFD TAF FOR NOW.
PERHAPS SOME FOG LATE AT LNS.
MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN VFR OVERNIGHT AND EARLY WED.
EXPECT WINDS TO PICK UP SOME BY LATE WED MORNING...ALONG
WITH A BKN CIG...BUT VFR CONDITIONS.
OUTLOOK...
THUR...MVFR CIGS WEST EARLY...THEN VFR. VFR EAST.
FRI...VFR/MVFR EARLY WITH SHOWERS POSS WEST...BCMG MVFR/IFR FRI
NGT WITH NW WIND GUSTS 20-30 MPH AND RA/SN SHOWERS.
SAT...MVFR/IFR WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WEST. VARYING VFR-
MVFR CONDS CENTRAL/EAST WITH OCNL -SHSN AND FLURRIES. NW WIND
GUSTS 25-35 MPH.
SUN...BECOMING VFR...WINDS DECREASING.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
339 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST
TODAY...WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING. STRATUS IS SLOW TO
CLEAR EARLY THIS MORNING AS WE REMAIN MORE MIXED THAN MOST MODELS
SHOW. THE RAP SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THINGS...AND THUS
FOLLOWED CLOSEST TO IT AND SLOWED DOWN EXIT OF CLOUD COVER THIS
MORNING. THE BACK EDGE OF THE STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH
EAST AND BY LATE MORNING MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY. WILL
BE ANOTHER COOL DAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S OVER
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA TO THE MID AND UPPER 50S WEST OF THE JAMES
RIVER.
AN UPPER WAVE WILL QUICKLY PUSH ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THUS EXPECTING INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. BEST QG FORCING DOES GO OVER OUR CWA...HOWEVER BEST
MOISTURE STAYS TO THE NORTH. THUS THINKING WE MAINLY JUST SEE CLOUDS
AND VIRGA...WITH MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION NOT ABLE TO PUSH THROUGH
THE DRY LOWER LEVELS. HOWEVER FORCING IS STRONG ENOUGH THAT CAN NOT
RULE OUT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS REACHING THE GROUND...AND THUS EXPANDED
THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO INCLUDE MOST LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER. GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY
STAY IN THE 40S MOST OF THE NIGHT...HOWEVER WITH LIGHT
WINDS...READINGS IN ANY CLEAR POCKETS WILL DROP INTO THE 30S. AND
WITH MORE WIDESPREAD CLEARING EXPECTED LATE THINK MOST AREAS WILL
SEE LOWS IN THE 30S. COLD FRONT WILL MAKE IT TO ABOUT INTERSTATE 29
BY 12Z...AND WITH INCREASED MIXING BEHIND THE FRONT...PROBABLY WILL
SEE A SLIGHT WARMING AND A BIT OF A NORTHWESTERLY BREEZE DEVELOP
LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE WEST.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
THURSDAY IS HIGHLIGHTED BY A HASTENING OF THE PACE OF THE NEXT
SURGE OF COLD AIR ADVECTION. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER WAVE RAPIDLY
DEPARTS BUT IN ITS WAKE...IS A STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVING DOWN FROM
WESTERN ONTARIO TO NORTHERN MN. COLD HIGH PRESSURE...CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 1035 AND 1040MB FILLS IN ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THEREFORE THURSDAY LOOKS
LIKE A DAY SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAD YESTERDAY...BLUSTERY...COOL...
AND WHAT COULD BE PLENTY OF COLD AIR ADVECTION STRATUS FOR MANY
AREAS OTHER THAN POSSIBLY OUR MO RIVER VALLEY AREAS. THEREFORE
NOTCHED UP THE NORTHERLY WINDS AND FOR TEMPERATURES...THE VARIOUS
GUIDANCE VALUES HAVE MARKEDLY COOLED THE HIGHS OFF. NOTICED THAT
THE AFTERNOON 900-850MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE NOT A
WHOLE LOT DIFFERENT THAN WHAT THEY WERE YESTERDAY. SO BLENDED THE
VERY CHILLY BIAS CORRECTED GEM GLOBAL AND BIAS CORRECTED MAV INTO
THE CONSENSUS GUIDANCE. THIS COOLED HIGHS OFF INTO THE UPPER 40S
NORTH TO MID 50S SOUTH. BUT IF THE STRATUS GETS AS INTRUSIVE AS IT
WAS ON TUESDAY...THEN EVEN THESE HIGHS ARE PROBABLY A CATEGORY
TOO WARM.
LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT ARE TRICKY...IN THAT THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA
WILL CAUSE SOME LINGERING MIXING POTENTIAL EAST OF INTERSTATE 29.
IN ADDITION...THERE IS A QUESTION OF HOW QUICKLY THE FORECAST
STRATUS WILL EXIT...AT LEAST IN OUR EASTERN ZONES. WOULD NOT BE AT
ALL SURPRISED IF THE STRATUS LINGERS LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED...
THEREFORE DID NOT GO WITH THE COLDEST GUIDANCE VALUES ON THURSDAY
EXCEPT IN OUR FAR WEST. CONSENSUS VALUES LOOKED PRETTY GOOD FOR
OUR EASTERN ZONES...BUT HAVE CLOSE TO 20 DEGREES FOR CHAMBERLAIN
AND HURON.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY EXHIBIT A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER FLOW WITH
STRONG RIDGING IN THE MIDDLE PART OF THE COUNTRY. FRIDAY WILL BE
COOL ONCE AGAIN BUT WITH MUCH LESS WIND AS THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. BUT THEN A TIGHT GRADIENT WILL RETURN
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH STOUT WINDS OFF THE SURFACE. WINDY
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 35 MPH SHOULD EASILY PREVAIL ON SATURDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES STILL BELOW NORMAL AS THE COOL HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO THE EAST INFLUENCES OUR WEATHER FOR ANOTHER DAY. THE
GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER INDEX WILL LIKELY REACH THE VERY HIGH
CATEGORY ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...AND WILL BE CONVEYED IN
THE FORTHCOMING HWO. FOR SUNDAY...CONSENSUS TEMPERATURES LOOKED A
LITTLE COOL GIVEN THE ECMWF AND GFS 900MB TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND WEST OF I 29. THEREFORE BLENDED THE MORE MILD BIAS
CORRECTED ECMWF VALUES INTO THE MIX TO BUMP THE READINGS UP A
CATEGORY OR TWO.
THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE A BIT IN HOW THEY HANDLE
THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. AT THIS TIME...THE ECMWF LOOKS A LITTLE BETTER THAN
THE GFS. BUT AT ANY RATE...DECENT RAIN CHANCES LOOK MINIMAL AS THE
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE TAKES OVER AND CUTS OFF THE DEEP MOISTURE.
TEMPERATURES LOOK UNEVENTFUL AND CLOSE TO NORMAL ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...BUT MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE PRETTY BREEZY AGAIN WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1047 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014
VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 30/06Z. CEILINGS 3.5K TO 5K FEET WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE OVER THE AREA THROUGH 29/15Z.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CHENARD
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1142 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014
.AVIATION...
VFR CIGS EXIST AT THIS HOUR ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AS THE
WEAK FRONT CONTINUES TO CRAWL SOUTH. STILL EXPECTING CIGS TO DROP
TO MVFR BY 07Z AT THE I-35 TERMINALS AND BY 10Z AT DRT. CONDITIONS
WILL NOT IMPROVE TO VFR UNTIL 19Z TO 21Z ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS
THAT ARE CURRENTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE...WILL TURN MORE NORTHERLY
OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW BUT REMAIN LIGHT (LESS THAN 10 KNOTS).
TREADWAY
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 849 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014/
UPDATE...
SHOWERS HAVE FAILED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED FRONT ON THE
NORTHERN BORDER OF OUR AREA. THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL AS THE LOW-
LEVEL JET REACHES IT/S DIURNAL MAXIMUM LATER TONIGHT. THE FORECAST
WAS JUST UPDATED THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY TO RE-TREND FROM THE CURRENT
CONDITIONS. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST OTHER THAN REMOVAL OF
POPS BEFORE 06Z AND A REDUCTION IN CLOUDCOVER THROUGH 18Z
WEDNESDAY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014/
AVIATION...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY. IT
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS OVERNIGHT.
WHILE NUMERICAL MODELS AND MODEL CROSS SECTIONS KEEP MOST OF THE
AREA VFR THROUGH THE NIGHT...HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS (THE HRRR AND
SIMULATED SATELLITE WRF) SUGGEST MVFR CIGS BEGINNING AROUND 05Z AT
THE I-35 TERMINALS AND AROUND 10Z AT DRT. HAVE SIDED WITH THE HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS. SOME DRIZZLE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AFTER THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN TOMORROW AFTERNOON BETWEEN 19Z AND 21Z ACROSS CENTRAL
TEXAS.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. NORTHERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT AUS BY 02Z...AND SAT/SSF/DRT BY 05Z. WIND
SPEEDS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS.
TREADWAY
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...THE COLD FRONT HAS
SLOWED ITS SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT AT 3 PM
STRETCHED FROM JUST SOUTH OF DALLAS THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS...THE
NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY AND INTO VAL VERDE COUNTY. THE FRONT WILL
CONTINUE SOUTH TONIGHT...REACHING CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LIGHT WINDS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT.
ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE SHALLOW FRONT
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE FRONT NOW LOOKS TO SLIP JUST
SOUTH OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS OF THE CWA ENDING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
COOLER ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID
TO UPPER 70S...POSSIBLY LOWER 80S ACROSS SOUTHERN CWA.
LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS
WHILE DOWNSTREAM TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL SEND A RE-ENFORCING COLD FRONT INTO THE
REGION EARLY FRIDAY. MOISTURE IS POOLED ALONG THE RIO GRANDE...
AND 12Z GFS/NAM12/CMC ARE ALL INDICATING LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS ACROSS
THE WESTERN CWA AHEAD OF THIS FRONT FRIDAY. FOR NOW AM DISCOUNTING
ECMWF QPF ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. DRIER AIR DOES FILTER INTO THE REGION FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. COOL AND DRY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE. LOWS SATURDAY
MORNING COULD DIP INTO THE MID AND UPPER 40S ACROSS THE HILL
COUNTRY AND CENTRAL TEXAS...LOW TO MID 50S SOUTHERN AREAS...AND
UPPER 50S ALONG THE RIO GRANDE.
RETURN FLOW SETS UP LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...WITH CLOUDS
RETURNING QUICKLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS AND MODERATING
TEMPERATURES. A FEW WEAK STREAMER SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH NOT MENTIONED IN OFFICIAL FORECAST.
FORECAST IS BECOMING MORE INTERESTING EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN FURTHER ON MONDAY...AHEAD
OF A DEEP TROUGH THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...DESERT
SOUTHWEST AND BAJA CALIFORNIA. AGAIN...ISOLATED STREAMER SHOWERS
POSSIBLE MONDAY AND MENTIONED IN FORECAST. SOME DISCREPANCIES
BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS WITH HOW QUICKLY THE TROUGH MOVES
EAST...WITH THE 12Z ECMWF FASTER INTO THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...LEAVING BEHIND LOW CUTT OFF WEST OF BAJA. GFS IS
SLIGHTLY SLOWER...WITH TROUGH COMING OUT TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT...AND SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE TROUGH NOT CUTTING OFF...MOVING
DEEP THROUGH MEXICO AND TEXAS. THE GFS ABSORBS THE NEXT PACIFIC
TROPICAL SYSTEM INTO THE TROUGH...WITH DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL
PACIFIC TAP OF REMNANT MOISTURE AND ENERGY MOVING RIGHT TROUGH
SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS TUESDAY...COINCIDING WITH A STRONGER COLD
FRONT. STARTED AN UPWARD TREND IN THE POPS FOR TUESDAY ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS...NOW INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY. SHOULD THE
PACIFIC TAP VERIFY...THEN POPS COULD END UP MUCH HIGHER...AND
BENEFICIAL QPF AMOUNTS GIVEN THEN HIGH PWATS FOR EARLY NOVEMBER.
GIVEN DAY 7 FORECAST...MAY TAKE A FEW MORE DAYS FOR MODEL
CONSENSUS TO DEVELOP. STAY TUNED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 83 64 78 59 82 / 10 20 20 10 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 83 63 78 56 81 / - 20 20 10 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 85 65 79 60 82 / - 20 20 10 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 80 59 75 56 78 / 10 20 10 10 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 78 65 76 64 84 / - 20 20 10 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 81 60 77 56 80 / 10 20 20 10 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 80 65 79 58 84 / - 20 20 10 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 84 64 78 58 82 / - 20 20 10 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 85 64 79 58 80 / - 20 20 10 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 84 65 79 62 82 / - 20 20 10 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 85 67 80 62 83 / - 20 20 10 10
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...12
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...26
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1118 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014
.AVIATION...
/6Z TAFS/
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WITH NORTH WINDS AROUND
10KTS MOST LOCATIONS. THERE ARE SOME PATCHES OF SCT/BKN CIGS
AROUND 5000FT FROM WACO NORTHEAST TO TYLER. MOST OF THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY HAS WEAKENED AND MOVED WELL EAST OF THE AREA. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS BECOMING
EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST OF THE
AREA. OUTSIDE OF THE SCT/BKN CIGS MENTIONED EARLIER...NO
SIGNIFICANT AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
DUNN
&&
.UPDATE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPED NEAR THE COLD FRONT LATE AFTERNOON.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AT AROUND 10 MPH AND AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO COULD DEVELOP THIS EVENING. HAVE
MADE A QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST THE POPS REMOVING AREAS ALONG AND
NORTHWEST OF A LAMPASAS TO WACO TO EMORY LINE. HAVE ALSO
INCREASED THE POPS A LITTLE FOR THIS EVENING SOUTHEAST OF AN
ATHENS TO GROESBECK LINE.
58
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014/
THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTH TEXAS
AREA. PATCHES OF LOWER CLOUDS ARE EVIDENT ON SATELLITE...BUT
RADAR CURRENTLY ONLY SHOWS WEAK SHOWER ACTIVITY NEAR GILMER IN
EAST TEXAS. HRRR STILL SHOWS SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHERN
ZONES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING SO HAVE LEFT LOW POPS IN THAT AREA.
MODERATE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S/LOW
80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S/60S THROUGH FRIDAY. THEN THE NEXT SHOT OF
REINFORCING COLD AIR PUSHES IN ON FRIDAY. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW LOWS TO DROP INTO THE 40S
NORTH AND LOW 50S FAR SOUTH. SATURDAY HIGHS WILL SIT IN THE 60S IN
ALL BUT THE SOUTH AND WEST WHERE LOW 70S ARE EXPECTED.
IN THE EXTENDED...GFS/ECMWF ADVERTISE A GOOD RAIN EVENT
MONDAY/TUESDAY...WITH THE GFS ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA. ECMWF CUTS THIS MOISTURE OFF IN MEXICO. HAVE HIGH CHANCE
POPS DURING THAT TIME FRAME DUE TO MODEL AGREEMENT...BUT WILL
RESERVE JUDGMENT ON THE TROPICAL MOISTURE. IF IT OCCURS...QPF
MAY BE MUCH HIGHER THAN IF IT GETS TRAPPED IN MEXICO. 84
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 56 77 53 77 53 / 10 0 0 10 5
WACO, TX 57 77 53 78 55 / 10 10 5 10 5
PARIS, TX 52 74 46 73 49 / 10 5 5 10 5
DENTON, TX 49 76 47 76 49 / 10 0 0 10 5
MCKINNEY, TX 51 76 46 75 50 / 10 5 0 10 5
DALLAS, TX 56 77 55 76 55 / 10 0 0 10 5
TERRELL, TX 55 76 51 76 52 / 10 5 5 10 5
CORSICANA, TX 58 76 52 76 53 / 20 10 5 10 5
TEMPLE, TX 60 77 55 79 55 / 20 20 10 10 5
MINERAL WELLS, TX 51 77 49 77 50 / 5 0 0 10 5
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1052 AM CDT Wed Oct 29 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1048 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
A mostly sunny morning for most of Central Illinois is slowly
giving way to developing clouds building in from the north. Cool
conditions behind the front as high pressure builds back into the
region. Temps a little slow to rise over the area and clouds north
of I-74 are going to complicate that a bit more. Have bumped the
highs down a degree or so and adjusted the hourly temps... but a
major update is not anticipated in this quiet weather pattern.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
Surface high pressure will begin to build into the state today, but
not until this afternoon. This morning, however, a large area of
clouds continues to move southeast-east in connection with a mid
level trough that is rotating through the Great Lakes region.
Satellite trends indicate that some of these clouds will advect into
northern parts of the area this morning and then should move east
through the day, leaving the CWA later this afternoon. So, this
morning, looking at partly sunny skies in the north, roughly north
of a Canton to Bloomington line. Satellite also indicates there are
some breaks in the clouds, so believe sunshine this morning should
help some to burn some of it off. CU rule does have some CU
developing, but only in the scattered range. Remainder of the CWA
should be mostly sunny to sunny.
Despite the sunshine today, cooler temperatures, below normal, have
returned to the area. Looking for temperatures in the 50s by this
afternoon, which is really close to both the MET and MAV guidance.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
Northwest upper level flow will persist into the weekend, helping to
keep temperatures below normal, with coldest air from Friday through
this weekend. A hard freeze still looks likely Friday night with
lows in the upper 20s across much of central/se IL and a freeze
watch will likely eventually be needed overnight Friday night into
early Saturday morning.
Weak high pressure around 1022 mb over the central plains to drift
east over IL by overnight and bring fair skies and light winds with
cool lows in the mid to upper 30s, with patchy frost overnight from
Lincoln eastward into IN. Some high clouds increase over western areas
later tonight and get a return se flow to limit frost formation in
western IL tonight. A weak disturbance over the Pacific Northwest,
is expected to dive se across MO Thursday afternoon, and into the TN
river valley by overnight Thu night. This to bring a chance of rain
showers to central IL by Thu afternoon and evening and shifting east
of I-57 overnight Thu night. The 00Z models, especially NAM model,
have increased rain chances and qpf amounts over our CWA with this
weather system. Highs Thu in the middle to upper 50s with mildest
readings sw areas and se IL.
Chances of showers will shift east into IN Friday where strong upper
level trof digs over the eastern states. Models have trended
stronger with this trof and also windier and colder over IL with
more qpf just east of IL over IN/OH/KY. Wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph
on Friday and Friday evening along with highs only in the 40s Friday
will not make for very nice weather for trick or treaters Friday
evening. Stronger Canadian surface high pressure of 1034 mb settling
into the Midwest Friday night, will produce good radiational cooling
conditions overnight Friday night and a likely hard freeze later
Friday night and early Saturday morning. Chilly highs Sat in the mid
to upper 40s. Another freeze likely Sat night with lows in the upper
20s eastern IL and lower 30s central and western IL. Highs Sunday in
the upper 40s and lower 50s.
After a chilly first weekend of November (and a sharp contrast from
the warm weekend the last weekend of October), temperatures will
moderate a bit during the 1st half of next work week with highs
55-60F Monday-Wednesday. Upper level flow becomes more southwesterly
and unsettled over IL early next work week and a frontal boundary to
set up from the southern plains ne into the Ohio river valley. This
likely to bring widespread rain of a half to 1 inch to the region
from Monday into Tuesday with isolated thunderstorms possible south
of I-72. The rain showers should diminish to slight chances on Wed
as frontal boundary weakens as it sags south of IL.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites next 24hrs. An area
of clouds around 4kft continues to advect into the area this
morning, and will effect all sites today. Based on satellite
trends and timing tools, looks like the broken cigs will be at PIA
and BMI around start of TAF forecast. Believe these broken cigs
will last til this evening, when it will become clear for tonight.
Satellite trends and HRRR model cloud forecast looks like the
clouds will thin as they continue to move southeast. Therefore,
will be going with just scattered clouds for the other three TAF
sites, SPI/DEC/CMI; but, will also include a 4hr TEMPO group for
broken cigs during the morning hours. Skies will clear at these
three sites around 00-02z as well, staying clear the remainder of
the TAF period. Winds will be west to northwest today at around
10-15kts, but then become light and variable tonight.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HJS
SHORT TERM...Auten
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Auten
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
911 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
.DISCUSSION...
315 AM CDT
SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT
AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING...THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH WINDS AND CLOUD COVER,
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A STRATOCU DECK SPREADING ACROSS NRN
IL...ASSOCIATED WITH A SECONDARY SURGE OF COOLER AIR AROUND THE SWRN
PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR JAMES BAY. CLEAR
SKIES PREVAILED OVER THE CWA THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING ALLOWING
WINDS TO DIMINISH AS RADIATIONAL COOLING ALLOWED A NOCTURNAL
INVERSION TO FORM...DECOUPLING THE LOWER LEVELS FROM STRONGER WINDS
ALOFT. HOWEVER...AS THE WRAPAROUND CLOUD COVER OVERSPREADS THE
REGION...WINDS WILL PICK UP ONCE AGAIN...AND PER UPSTREAM OBS.
EXPECT THAT THE WEAKER WSWLY WINDS WILL VEER TO MORE WNWLY AND GUST
UP TO ARND 25KT. THE STRONGER WINDS AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD ONLY
COVER LOCATIONS GENERALLY NORTH OF THE ILLINOIS AND KANKAKEE
RIVERS...PER LATEST MODEL RH GUIDANCE AND TIMING OF THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE CLOUD DECK...SO THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA SHOULD REMAIN
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHTER WINDS. TEMPERATURES TODAY
SHOULD BE EVEN LOWER THAN YESTERDAY AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER NWLY
FLOW AT THE SFC AND ALOFT...WITH PERSISTENT COLD ADVECTION. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY REACH INTO THE UPPER 40S GENERALLY
NORTH OF THE I-88 CORRIDOR WITH LOWER 50S TO THE SOUTH.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OUT OF THE NRN PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE WRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.
THIS SHOULD BRING DECREASING CLOUD COVER AS WELL AS DECREASING WINDS
WITH THE DECREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT. BY EARLY THIS EVENING...
WINDS SHOULD BECM NEAR CALM. THE CLEARING SKIES AND CALM WINDS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING...AND WITH DEWPOINTS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER 30S...TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP INTO THE
LOWER 30S AS WELL. EVEN THE CHICAGO URBAN HEAT ISLAND AREA WILL GET
QUITE CHILLY...WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 30S.
KREIN
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
WHILE THE WEEK BEGAN ON A VERY MILD NOTE...WITH TEMPERATURES WELL
INTO THE 70S MON...THE WEEK CLOSES OUT AS NEARLY THE INVERSE OF HOW
IT BEGAN. BROAD MID-LVL TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE BULK OF
THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY REGIONS THUR...WITH A SECONDARY
SHORTWAVE POISED TO SWEEP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST/NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY THUR. GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO
SUGGEST WITH THIS FEATURE THAT A WEAK SFC FEATURE WILL DEVELOP NEAR
NORTHEAST KS...WITH WEAK ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM SOME LGT
PRECIP MAY OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA.
THE SFC LOW THEN DEEPENS ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN LATE THUR NGT/EARLY
FRI...AS A POTENT CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SLIDE SOUTH INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS TIGHTENS
QUICKLY FRI MORNING...AND WILL PRODUCE BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE MIDDAY FRI. ACCOMPANYING THE STRONG CANADIAN
HIGH WILL BE MUCH COLDER AIR...AS TEMPS WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO WARM
BEYOND THE LOW TO MID 40S. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A SLUG OF
850MB TEMPS DROPPING TO -6 TO -10 DEG C MIDDAY FRI/EARLY
AFTN...WHICH MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPS COOLER IN THE UPR
30S/LOW 40S FRI. THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND TEMPS IN THE LOW
40S...WILL LIKELY CREATE WIND CHILL VALUES AROUND 30-33 DEGREES FRI
AFTN. PRECIP AT THIS TIME SHUD REMAIN IN LIQUID FORM FRI...HOWEVER
AS COLDER AIR ADVECTS IN FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST FRI LATE
AFTN/EARLY EVE...WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW. LAKE
EFFECT PRECIP LOOKS FAVORABLE AS WELL...HOWEVER GIVEN THE STRONG
WINDS AND REDUCED RESONANCE TIME...THE ONSET WILL LIKELY START
CELLULAR. THEN AS WINDS DIMINISH LATE FRI NGT A FEW BANDS MAY TRY TO
DEVELOP OVER NORTHWEST IND. TEMPS WILL COOL ENOUGH OVERNIGHT TO
CHANGE ALL PRECIP OVER TO SNOW...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATIONS
AT THIS TIME. TEMPS FRI NIGHT OVER LAND WILL LIKELY DIP INTO THE
MID/UPR 20S ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE LAKE WHERE SKIES SHUD
ERODE EARLIER FRI NGT. FURTHER EAST LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS WILL HELP TO
KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY WARMER.
CONFIDENCE...HIGH.
SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...
THE WEEKEND WILL START UNSEASONABLY COLD WITH A DEEP 500MB TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS...AND A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE
STRETCHING NORTH THROUGH THE PLAINS INTO GREENLAND. BY THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND THE TROUGH BEGINS TO WEAKEN. SFC RIDGE OVER THE
GREAT LAKES SAT WILL SHIFT EAST SUN. GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED THE
DEPARTURE OF THE SFC RIDGE SLIGHTLY...WHICH WILL RESULT IN HOW
QUICKLY THE SECONDARY TROUGH CAN PUSH INTO THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT A TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE SOUTHWEST CONUS
LATE SUN/EARLY MON...WITH A SFC LOW DEVELOPING EARLY NEXT WEEK
ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL LIKELY SET THE STAGE FOR A SLOW
MODERATION IN TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH PRECIP CHANCES
INCREASING MON.
CONFIDENCE...HIGH.
BEACHLER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 14Z...
* NONE.
RODRIGUEZ
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
AS THE DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK NEWD THROUGH
CANADA...A SECONDARY SURGE OF COOLER AIR AND A BKN-OVC STRATOCU
DECK HAS OVERSPREAD THE REGION. THE SECONDARY SURGE OF COOLER AIR
AND INCREASED COLD ADVECTION WILL BRING GUSTS TO ARND 25KT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND SPREAD EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...LEADING TO CLEARING
SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS. DURG THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...THE
HIGH WILL BE RIGHT ON TOP OF THE AREA...AND WINDS SHOULD BECOME
LGT/VRBL UNDER CLEAR SKIES... WHICH SHOULD THEN BE THE PREVAILING
CONDITION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
KREIN
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 14Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL FORECAST ELEMENTS.
RODRIGUEZ
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
* THURSDAY NIGHT...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA LATE. STRONG NWLY WINDS
DEVELOPING LATE.
* FRIDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA EARLY SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA/SHSN MIX
LATE. STRONG/GUSTY NORTH WINDS.
* SATURDAY...VFR. WX NIL. NORTHEAST WINDS.
* SUNDAY....VFR. WX NIL. SOUTH WINDS.
* MONDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS.
* TUESDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA. SOUTHWEST WINDS.
KREIN
&&
.MARINE...
230 AM CDT
DEEPENING LOW OVER JAMES BAY WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST AWAY
FROM THE GREAT LAKES...AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SLIDES SOUTHEAST FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE
WILL DIMINISH WINDS ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT/THUR MORNING. THEN
A WEAK LOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY THUR AND
QUICKLY SLIDE EAST TOWARDS LAKE MICHIGAN...BEFORE DEEPENING TO A
STRONGER LOW PRESSURE OVER LOWER MICHIGAN THUR NGT/EARLY FRI.
THEN THE TIME PERIOD OF GREATEST CONCERN WILL BE FRI WITH A VERY
POTENT CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE REGION POISED TO SLIDE SOUTH INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS FRI MORNING. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW/HIGH
CONTINUES TO BE SUPPORTIVE OF GENERATING GALES TO 40KT AND POSSIBLY
45KT AROUND 9Z FRI MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
LAKE...AND LIKELY DEVELOP FURTHER SOUTH AROUND DAYBREAK FRI OR
SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK FRI.
GUIDANCE HAS REMAINED CONSISTENT WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN NORTH GALES
40-45KTS DEVELOPING FRI...SO HAVE OPTED TO JUST JUMP TO A GALE
WARNING RATHER THAN A WATCH. THERE IS A SMALL WINDOW MIDDAY FRI
WHERE A FEW STORM FORCE GUSTS COULD OCCUR...BUT THIS IS A LOW
CONFIDENCE FOR ANY DURATION OF STORM FORCE WINDS. WITH THE NORTH
GALES...AND FOR A DECENT DURATION...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WAVES COULD
BE SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH TO PRODUCE THE NEED FOR BEACH HAZARDS ALONG
THE INDIANA SHORELINE FRI AS WELL.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE LAKE LATE FRI NGT AND
STEADILY DIMINISH THE WINDS. WINDS/WAVES WILL FURTHER DIMINISH
SAT/SUN AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE LAKE.
BEACHLER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 10 AM
WEDNESDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ740-LMZ741-
LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ870-LMZ872-
LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...7 AM FRIDAY TO 4 AM SATURDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 3 PM WEDNESDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-LMZ567-
LMZ868...4 AM FRIDAY TO 10 PM FRIDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
643 AM CDT Wed Oct 29 2014
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
Surface high pressure will begin to build into the state today, but
not until this afternoon. This morning, however, a large area of
clouds continues to move southeast-east in connection with a mid
level trough that is rotating through the Great Lakes region.
Satellite trends indicate that some of these clouds will advect into
northern parts of the area this morning and then should move east
through the day, leaving the CWA later this afternoon. So, this
morning, looking at partly sunny skies in the north, roughly north
of a Canton to Bloomington line. Satellite also indicates there are
some breaks in the clouds, so believe sunshine this morning should
help some to burn some of it off. CU rule does have some CU
developing, but only in the scattered range. Remainder of the CWA
should be mostly sunny to sunny.
Despite the sunshine today, cooler temperatures, below normal, have
returned to the area. Looking for temperatures in the 50s by this
afternoon, which is really close to both the MET and MAV guidance.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
Northwest upper level flow will persist into the weekend, helping to
keep temperatures below normal, with coldest air from Friday through
this weekend. A hard freeze still looks likely Friday night with
lows in the upper 20s across much of central/se IL and a freeze
watch will likely eventually be needed overnight Friday night into
early Saturday morning.
Weak high pressure around 1022 mb over the central plains to drift
east over IL by overnight and bring fair skies and light winds with
cool lows in the mid to upper 30s, with patchy frost overnight from
Lincoln eastward into IN. Some high clouds increase over western areas
later tonight and get a return se flow to limit frost formation in
western IL tonight. A weak disturbance over the Pacific Northwest,
is expected to dive se across MO Thursday afternoon, and into the TN
river valley by overnight Thu night. This to bring a chance of rain
showers to central IL by Thu afternoon and evening and shifting east
of I-57 overnight Thu night. The 00Z models, especially NAM model,
have increased rain chances and qpf amounts over our CWA with this
weather system. Highs Thu in the middle to upper 50s with mildest
readings sw areas and se IL.
Chances of showers will shift east into IN Friday where strong upper
level trof digs over the eastern states. Models have trended
stronger with this trof and also windier and colder over IL with
more qpf just east of IL over IN/OH/KY. Wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph
on Friday and Friday evening along with highs only in the 40s Friday
will not make for very nice weather for trick or treaters Friday
evening. Stronger Canadian surface high pressure of 1034 mb settling
into the Midwest Friday night, will produce good radiational cooling
conditions overnight Friday night and a likely hard freeze later
Friday night and early Saturday morning. Chilly highs Sat in the mid
to upper 40s. Another freeze likely Sat night with lows in the upper
20s eastern IL and lower 30s central and western IL. Highs Sunday in
the upper 40s and lower 50s.
After a chilly first weekend of November (and a sharp contrast from
the warm weekend the last weekend of October), temperatures will
moderate a bit during the 1st half of next work week with highs
55-60F Monday-Wednesday. Upper level flow becomes more southwesterly
and unsettled over IL early next work week and a frontal boundary to
set up from the southern plains ne into the Ohio river valley. This
likely to bring widespread rain of a half to 1 inch to the region
from Monday into Tuesday with isolated thunderstorms possible south
of I-72. The rain showers should diminish to slight chances on Wed
as frontal boundary weakens as it sags south of IL.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites next 24hrs. An area
of clouds around 4kft continues to advect into the area this
morning, and will effect all sites today. Based on satellite
trends and timing tools, looks like the broken cigs will be at PIA
and BMI around start of TAF forecast. Believe these broken cigs
will last til this evening, when it will become clear for tonight.
Satellite trends and HRRR model cloud forecast looks like the
clouds will thin as they continue to move southeast. Therefore,
will be going with just scattered clouds for the other three TAF
sites, SPI/DEC/CMI; but, will also include a 4hr TEMPO group for
broken cigs during the morning hours. Skies will clear at these
three sites around 00-02z as well, staying clear the remainder of
the TAF period. Winds will be west to northwest today at around
10-15kts, but then become light and variable tonight.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Auten
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Auten
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
524 AM MDT WED OCT 29 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 AM MDT WED OCT 29 2014
EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW LARGE SCALE
TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY WITH AN UPSTREAM RIDGE EXTENDING NORTH ALONG THE
ROCKIES. NW FLOW IS IN PLACE OVER THE CWA BETWEEN THESE FEATURES.
AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO LINGER OVER THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A WEAK LEE TROUGH BEGINNING TO DEVELOP
OVER EASTERN COLORADO.
RIDGING WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST US THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
NW FLOW OVER THE CWA. LEE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN TODAY IN
RESPONSE TO CROSS MOUNTAIN FLOW IN THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...WITH HIGHS
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOWER 70S. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE NW FLOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. WITH A DEEP DRY
AIR MASS IN PLACE PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED. THIS TROUGH WILL
KICK A COLD FRONT SOUTH OVER THE CWA TONIGHT WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO
SEASONAL VALUES IN THE 60S ON THURSDAY.
FLOW ALOFT AMPLIFIES FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS RIDGE SHIFTS EAST
AND A LARGE SCALE TROUGH BEGINS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WESTERN US.
THERE WILL BE A FEW EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WITHIN THE MEAN
FLOW...HOWEVER A VERY DRY AIR MASS AND UNFAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL STORM
TRACKS WILL LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS FRIDAY AND THE
ASSOCIATED BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN THE
50S TO THE CWA (POSSIBLY LOWER IN THE NORTHEAST). THE AMPLIFIED
PATTERN WILL ALSO SUPPORT DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER COLORADO...AND
WITH THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE...TIGHTENING GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT
BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL LIMIT DIURNAL
COOLING.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM MDT WED OCT 29 2014
HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING TO THE EAST AND CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE
AREA THROUGH MID DAY SUNDAY. ON SATURDAY THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT
FROM THE WEST WILL PRODUCE A STIFF SOUTHERLY WIND. THIS COLD FRONT
LOOKS TO BE WEAK AND WILL PASS OVER THE FA STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME INSTABILITY AHEAD
OF THIS FRONT SO WILL ADD A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS...MOSTLY IN
THE NORTHWEST AREA OF THE FA. AFTER THE FRONT PASSES ANOTHER HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGAN TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL CAUSE THE
WINDS TO SHIFT TO WEST-NORTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH AND THE TEMPERATURES
TO DECREASE TO AT OR BELOW FREEZING EARLY ON MONDAY MORNING. AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST STARTS TO MOVE TOWARDS THE EAST MORE OF
THE AREA WILL SEE MORE SEASONAL WEATHER THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 524 AM MDT WED OCT 29 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH KGLD
AND KMCK. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AROUND
10KT AS LEE TROUGH DEEPENS IN EASTERN COLORADO THIS MORNING. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AS A COLD FRONT MOVES OVER BOTH
TERMINALS LATER THIS EVENING.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...BDW
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
1000 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2014
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
...Forecast Update...
Issued at 745 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2014
The back edge of the clouds is about halfway through the region, but
in its wake are a thin layer of low clouds, as evident on satellite
fog product, area webcams, and automated observing stations. Have
add patchy dense fog to the forecast for the next couple of hours,
as the HRRR and NARRE both hint at these clouds sticking around.
Also issued a special weather statement highlighting the impact.
Issued at 620 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2014
Updated the forecast to reduce precip chances over south central KY
as precip is making quick progress eastward out of the area early
this morning. Also, added some patchy fog over portions of
southwest Indiana and west central KY where clearing has begun and
visibilities are dropping at some observation sites.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2014
Early this morning, a shortwave was riding NE along the cold front
just to our south and east. This wave will provide another round of
light rain showers to south central KY and southern portions of the
Bluegrass during the pre-dawn hours. These locations may see up to
an additional tenth of an inch of rainfall early this morning.
This last wave of rainfall should exit the Lake Cumberland region
around or just after sunrise with cooler, drier air pushing in
from the NW throughout the day. Skies will become mostly sunny by
mid morning with high temps topping out in the upper 50s to lower
60s this afternoon.
Tonight sfc high pressure will enter the Ohio Valley with most
models progging it to become centered over our region around
sunrise. This high will provide light winds, subsidence, and good
rad cooling conditions which will result in low temps in the mid to
upper 30s Thurs morning. Temps in this range will make at least
patchy frost formation possible in sheltered/valley locations.
Tonight could be a Frost Advisory candidate especially for southern
Indiana and north central Kentucky. Will need to re-evaluate winds,
dewpts, and temps this afternoon to determine if frost formation
would be widespread enough for a Frost Advisory Thurs morning. Stay
tuned!
After a cold start Thurs morning, temps should warm into the mid 50s
to around 60 Thurs afternoon. Clouds will be on the increase Thurs
afternoon as the next weather system approaches for Thurs night.
.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 420 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2014
...Blast of Cold Air Coming This Weekend with Sub-Freezing
Temperatures Likely by Sunday...
OK, let`s cut to the chase. Friday evening is what you`re really
interested in, since the streets will be full of little goblins and
you`ll either be accompanying them or opening your doors for them.
Either way, it`s not going to be pleasant. Light showers will be
occurring in most areas with temperatures falling through the 40s -
if not into the 30s - before the last doorbell is rung. And some of
the precipitation falling from those showers will likely be in the
form of light snow if you stay out too late. When you add north
winds gusting from 15 to 25 mph, well, let`s just say that it`s
going to be cold.
The extended period will bring us a taste of the season to come as a
progressive upper level weather pattern keeps forecasters on their
toes. We start out with a series of upper disturbances diving south
out of Canada, deepening a trof over the eastern U.S. and dragging
the colder air into the Ohio Valley. Showers will first move into
the region overnight Thursday, then increase in coverage during the
day Friday along with the push of cold air coming in rapidly on
north winds as a tight surface gradient sets up between Low pressure
over the Appalachians and High pressure over the upper Mississippi
Valley. This leads into the aforementioned blustery weather Friday
night.
Wind chills Friday night will fall into the 20s, but with the gusty
winds, actual air temperatures should not fall below freezing
Saturday morning. The same won`t be true for Sunday morning though,
as the surface High moves in from the upper Mississippi Valley,
clearing out skies and dropping winds off to allow for peak
radiational cooling by Sunday morning. Temperature by dawn on the
day we move the clocks back an hour should be in the upper 20s
across the entire area, effectively putting an end to the outdoor
growing season.
A gradual warmup will occur Sunday into Monday as the High drifts
slowly east and return southerly flow sets up. This will set the
stage for the next chance for showers from Monday night into
Tuesday. These will stay in the form of rain, rather than snow,
though, as daytime temperatures moderate back into the upper 60s
Monday and Tuesday - up considerably from Saturday`s max
temperatures in the 40s.
&&
.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 645 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2014
SDF/LEX should remain VFR through the TAF period. However, BWG may
see some MVFR conditions due to light br for a brief period this
morning.
Light WSW winds will increase by this afternoon to 8-10 kts
primarily from the W behind a departing cold front. Tonight expect
a wind shift to the NW as a dry trough swings through the region.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Update.........AMS/RJS
Short Term.....AMS
Long Term......JBS
Aviation.......AMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
750 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2014
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
...Forecast Update...
Issued at 745 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2014
The back edge of the clouds is about halfway through the region, but
in its wake are a thin layer of low clouds, as evident on satellite
fog product, area webcams, and automated observing stations. Have
add patchy dense fog to the forecast for the next couple of hours,
as the HRRR and NARRE both hint at these clouds sticking around.
Also issued a special weather statement highlighting the impact.
Issued at 620 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2014
Updated the forecast to reduce precip chances over south central KY
as precip is making quick progress eastward out of the area early
this morning. Also, added some patchy fog over portions of
southwest Indiana and west central KY where clearing has begun and
visibilities are dropping at some observation sites.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2014
Early this morning, a shortwave was riding NE along the cold front
just to our south and east. This wave will provide another round of
light rain showers to south central KY and southern portions of the
Bluegrass during the pre-dawn hours. These locations may see up to
an additional tenth of an inch of rainfall early this morning.
This last wave of rainfall should exit the Lake Cumberland region
around or just after sunrise with cooler, drier air pushing in
from the NW throughout the day. Skies will become mostly sunny by
mid morning with high temps topping out in the upper 50s to lower
60s this afternoon.
Tonight sfc high pressure will enter the Ohio Valley with most
models progging it to become centered over our region around
sunrise. This high will provide light winds, subsidence, and good
rad cooling conditions which will result in low temps in the mid to
upper 30s Thurs morning. Temps in this range will make at least
patchy frost formation possible in sheltered/valley locations.
Tonight could be a Frost Advisory candidate especially for southern
Indiana and north central Kentucky. Will need to re-evaluate winds,
dewpts, and temps this afternoon to determine if frost formation
would be widespread enough for a Frost Advisory Thurs morning. Stay
tuned!
After a cold start Thurs morning, temps should warm into the mid 50s
to around 60 Thurs afternoon. Clouds will be on the increase Thurs
afternoon as the next weather system approaches for Thurs night.
.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 420 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2014
...Blast of Cold Air Coming This Weekend with Sub-Freezing
Temperatures Likely by Sunday...
OK, let`s cut to the chase. Friday evening is what you`re really
interested in, since the streets will be full of little goblins and
you`ll either be accompanying them or opening your doors for them.
Either way, it`s not going to be pleasant. Light showers will be
occurring in most areas with temperatures falling through the 40s -
if not into the 30s - before the last doorbell is rung. And some of
the precipitation falling from those showers will likely be in the
form of light snow if you stay out too late. When you add north
winds gusting from 15 to 25 mph, well, let`s just say that it`s
going to be cold.
The extended period will bring us a taste of the season to come as a
progressive upper level weather pattern keeps forecasters on their
toes. We start out with a series of upper disturbances diving south
out of Canada, deepening a trof over the eastern U.S. and dragging
the colder air into the Ohio Valley. Showers will first move into
the region overnight Thursday, then increase in coverage during the
day Friday along with the push of cold air coming in rapidly on
north winds as a tight surface gradient sets up between Low pressure
over the Appalachians and High pressure over the upper Mississippi
Valley. This leads into the aforementioned blustery weather Friday
night.
Wind chills Friday night will fall into the 20s, but with the gusty
winds, actual air temperatures should not fall below freezing
Saturday morning. The same won`t be true for Sunday morning though,
as the surface High moves in from the upper Mississippi Valley,
clearing out skies and dropping winds off to allow for peak
radiational cooling by Sunday morning. Temperature by dawn on the
day we move the clocks ahead an hour should be in the upper 20s
across the entire area, effectively putting an end to the outdoor
growing season.
A gradual warmup will occur Sunday into Monday as the High drifts
slowly east and return southerly flow sets up. This will set the
stage for the next chance for showers from Monday night into
Tuesday. These will stay in the form of rain, rather than snow,
though, as daytime temperatures moderate back into the upper 60s
Monday and Tuesday - up considerably from Saturday`s max
temperatures in the 40s.
&&
.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 645 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2014
SDF/LEX should remain VFR through the TAF period. However, BWG may
see some MVFR conditions due to light br for a brief period this
morning.
Light WSW winds will increase by this afternoon to 8-10 kts
primarily from the W behind a departing cold front. Tonight expect
a wind shift to the NW as a dry trough swings through the region.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Update.........AMS/RJS
Short Term.....AMS
Long Term......JBS
Aviation.......AMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
655 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR THU THROUGH FRI.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 340 AM WEDNESDAY...
WATER VAPOR AND 00Z UPPER AIR DATA REVEAL A POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH
ALOFT...WHICH INCLUDES SHORTWAVE TROUGHS IN BOTH THE NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAMS...FROM SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY.
MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED AT 07Z JUST
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. ASIDE FROM SOUTHERN STREAM-GENERATED CIRRUS
LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER...AND ALONG AND POST(ANA)-FRONTAL
SHOWERS...ALSO REMAINED WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS.
A BLEND OF THE SLOWER ECMWF AND RAP FORECAST SOLUTIONS IS FAVORED
GIVEN THAT THE ASSOCIATED COOLER POST-FRONTAL AIR HAS STILL NOT
REACHED THE MOUNTAINS...AND THE FLOW ALOFT IS FRONT-PARALLEL/
SOUTHWESTERLY. AS SUCH...MODEST INSOLATION THROUGH THE CIRRUS AND
PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER FROM THE WEST
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 70S WEST TO LOWER 80S
EAST...WITH EXPECTED FROPA TIMING IN THE NW PIEDMONT BETWEEN 20-
22Z...THE TRIANGLE BETWEEN 22-00Z...AND THE COASTAL PLAIN AND
EASTERN SANDHILLS BETWEEN 00-03Z. WHILE THE ONGOING SHOWERS MAY
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS THEY APPROACH AND MOVE EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS...REDEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY AS THE DIVERGENT RIGHT
ENTRANCE OF A JET STREAK IN THE NORTHERN STREAM SPREADS EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL NC AND PROVIDES DEEPER/COUPLED ASCENT ATOP THE FRONTAL
CIRCULATION THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE COUPLED FORCING...WEAK LAPSE
RATES AND ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY WILL OTHERWISE HINDER PRECIPITATION
INTENSITY...AND ONLY AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO IS EXPECTED AMIDST AN
OTHERWISE BAND OF SHOWERS.
THOUGH SOME 4-8 THOUSAND FT CLOUDINESS WILL LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT
THROUGH THIS EVENING OWING TO THE ONLY SLOW APPROACH OF THE TROUGH
ALOFT...CLEARING WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD EAST OVERNIGHT. CAA-DRIVEN
LOWS MOSTLY BETWEEN 45 TO 55 DEGREES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM WEDNESDAY...
SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND UNDERLYING 1020 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...
BEHIND THE TROUGH ALOFT FORECAST TO MOVE INTO AND AFFECT THE EASTERN
US DURING THE NEAR TERM...WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEYS
AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES ON THU. THE RESULT WILL BE SUNNY AND
COOLER CONDITIONS...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE
60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES.
FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATES ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE PAC NW
THIS MORNING WILL AMPLIFY SOUTHEASTWARD AND INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS BY FRI MORNING...WHILE A MUCH STRONGER ONE IN A
PRONOUNCED EARLY SEASON ARCTIC STREAM AMPLIFIES SOUTH SOUTHEASTWARD
FROM CENTRAL CANADA TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES DURING THE SAME TIME.
DESPITE THE ASSOCIATED STEADILY FALLING HEIGHTS ALOFT IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE PAIR OF AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS...PRECEDING
DRYNESS/LIMITED DEEP MOISTURE SUGGESTS THE MAIN IMPACT THROUGH FRI
MORNING SHOULD BE MERELY AN UPTICK IN MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS AS THE
FLOW ALOFT BACKS TO SOUTHWESTERLY THU NIGHT...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 40.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM WEDNESDAY...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA EARLY ON FRIDAY... AHEAD OF
STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVING IN TO THE BASE OF A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
US. RECENT MODEL TRENDS HAVE SHOWN THIS SHORTWAVE MOVING MUCH
FURTHER SOUTHWARD THAN PREVIOUS RUNS... AND INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED
MIDLEVEL FLOW... WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW CROSSING THE AREA AND
INDUCING COASTAL SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT. THE RESULTING STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING BLUSTERY WINDS SATURDAY. IF THIS
SCENARIO PLAYS OUT... WE WILL SEE A COLD AND WET DAY... WITH HIGHS
IN THE 40S. HAVE BEGUN TO TREND HIGHS LOWER... AND INCREASED TO
CHANCE POPS SATURDAY. AS NOTED BY WPC... THE FORECASTED PATTERN IS
QUITE ANOMALOUS... AND THEREFORE CONFIDENCE REMAINS BELOW NORMAL AT
THIS TIME.
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW WILL BRING CLEARING
CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY... WHICH WILL WORK TO PARTIALLY OFFSET COLD
ADVECTION... WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 50S. STRONG AND COLD HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN TO THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY WILL MOVE DIRECTLY
OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY... WITH FROST AND POSSIBLY FREEZE POTENTIAL
SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS. THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST ON
TUESDAY... BEGINNING A MODERATING TREND IN TEMPERATURES... WITH
HIGHS BACK IN THE 60S MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 645 AM WEDNESDAY...
LATEST INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE STRATUS OVER EASTERN SC WILL MAKE
LITTLE ADDITIONAL NORTHWESTWARD PROGRESS OWING TO A VEERING OF THE
SURFACE WIND TO SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...SUCH THAT
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST OF FAY THIS MORNING. AS SUCH...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
UNTIL A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED BAND OF ALONG AND POST-FRONTAL
SHOWERS - AND ASSOCIATED IFR-MVFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS - MOVES EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST
ONLY AROUND 2-5 HOURS AT ANY ONE LOCATION...LONGEST AT EASTERN
SITES. A PERIOD OF VFR CEILINGS BETWEEN 4-8 THOUSAND FT WILL LINGER
FOR A FEW HOURS EVEN AFTER THE SHOWERS AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS MOVE
EAST...AS THE SLOW APPROACH OF A TROUGH ALOFT DRAWS MOISTURE BACK UP
AND OVER THE SURFACE FRONT.
OTHERWISE...SW SURFACE WINDS BETWEEN 7-13 KTS...STRONGEST AND
OCCASIONALLY GUSTY INTO THE UPPER TEENS KTS AT FAY AND RWI...WILL
VEER TO WNW OR NW BEHIND THE FRONT BY THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK: THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG POLAR FRONT AND SUBSEQUENT
DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG COASTAL LOW WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF
RAIN...AND BLUSTERY NW WINDS...FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...SEC
AVIATION...MWS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
958 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 957 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA AS OF 15 UTC
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE INTERACTING WITH
THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EAST TODAY. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY BE BOUNDED BY I-94 AND US
HIGHWAY 2 BASED UPON RADAR TRENDS...THE 00 UTC WRF-ARW/NMM...06
UTC GFS AND 09 UTC SREF. A FEW FLAKES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR
WEST AROUND MIDDAY...OTHERWISE...PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ALL RAIN.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 646 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY SKY GRIDS BASED ON THE
CURRENT OBS/TRENDS OF THE STRATUS SHIELD MOVING INTO EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINING WEATHER ELEMENTS ARE IN GOOD
SHAPE. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
TIMING OF THE EXIT OF THE LARGE CLOUD SHIELD OVER THE STATE...THEN
CHANCES OF SHOWERS TODAY ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST.
CURRENTLY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED FROM NORTHERN
MANITOBA ACROSS THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS AND INTO NEBRASKA. A LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF HUDSON BAY. A
LARGE CLOUD SHIELD OF WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
EXTENDED WESTWARD TO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. TO THE WEST...A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDED ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES FROM A
LOW OVER ALBERTA SOUTHWARD ACROSS MONTANA AND WYOMING.
THE CLOUD DECK CONTINUED TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE HUDSON
BAY LOW CONTINUES MOVING NORTHEAST...AND AS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
RIDGING MOVES INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA FROM THE WEST. LATEST SAT
PICS INDICATE THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CLOUD DECK WAS NEAR
STANLEY...TO MANDAN/BISMARCK...TO NEAR FORT YATES. KEPT THE MENTION
OF PATCHY FOG IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. AS SKIES CLEAR...RESIDUAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPS THAT MAY DROP
QUICKLY...CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SHOULD HAVE THESE CONDITIONS IN THOSE
FEW HOURS BEFORE/AROUND SUNRISE.
THE LATEST HRRR RUNS INDICATE THE CLOUD DECK SHOULD CLEAR THE
JAMESTOWN AREA BEFORE NOON. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE LOW LEVEL
RELATIVE HUMIDITY FIELD OF THE NAM.
FOLLOWING THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST IS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO ENTER WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA BEFORE/AROUND NOON...AND MOVE EAST ACROSS THE STATE DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE STATE.
EXPECTING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA BEGINNING LATE MORNING IN THE WEST...AND KEPT CHANCES IN FOR
ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
LINGERING CHANCES IN THE JAMES VALLEY THIS EVENING.
TONIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW THE EXITING SURFACE LOW...AND WINDS
WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY...GOOD COLD ADVECTION WILL BEGIN...AND A
LARGE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE GREAT PLAINS WILL
GENERATE DRY CONDITIONS OVER NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST AS COOL CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION.
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG A SHORTWAVE TO LIFT
SOMEWHERE INTO EASTERN MONTANA/WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE ECMWF/GEM HAVE WEAKENED THE
SHORTWAVE AND HAVE NUDGED ITS TRACK A LITTLE FARTHER WEST INTO
MONTANA. HOWEVER...THE LATEST GFS IS SLOWER AND STRONGER WITH THE
PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM...PLACING IT OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
MONDAY. IF THE GFS WERE TO VERIFY...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WOULD BE
AN ISSUE OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY.
GIVEN THE MODEL TO MODEL AND RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCIES...WILL
CONTINUE TO FORECAST A MODEL BLEND. GIVEN THE RECENT WEAKENING
ECMWF AND GEM TRENDS...WILL NOT GET TOO EXCITED FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES SUNDAY-MONDAY. IT IS
EXPECTED THAT LATER RUNS OF THE GFS WILL BEGIN TO TREND TOWARDS
THE ECMWF AS IT HAS ALL SEASON. NEVERTHELESS...WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN FORECAST TUESDAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING
DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 957 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
MVFR STRATUS WILL CLEAR KJMS AROUND 17 UTC. OTHERWISE...A WARM
FRONT ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE
DAY. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT...WITH
VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. A COLD FRONT WILL OVERTAKE THE AREA
FROM SOUTHERN CANADA THIS EVENING...WITH MVFR STRATUS IN TRAIL.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
955 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 955 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
ENTIRE CWA CONTINUES TO BE OVERCAST AS WRN EDGE OF STRATOCU DECK
INCHES ITSELF EASTWARD. WILL GO AHEAD AND KNOCK DAYTIME TEMPS DOWN
A DEG OR TWO AS A LATE START TO ANY HEATING IS EXPECTED. NEW NAM
KEEPS PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH LOW CURRENTLY OVER SRN SASK IN CNTRL
DAKOTAS THROUGH 00Z...SO HAVE REMOVED LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
SHEYENNE VALLEY. WILL HOLD OFF ANY PRECIP UNTIL AFT 00Z. WILL
READDRESS TEMPS FOR THIS AFTN WITH NEXT UPDATE AS IT IS A BIT
EARLY TO TELL IMPACTS ON CLOUDS...BUT 2 DEG COOLER THAN PREV CURVE
INDICATED SHOULD BE A DECENT START.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
BACK EDGE OF CLEARING LINE STILL EVER SO SLOWLY CLEARING EAST-
NORTHEAST. STILL NOT PROGGED TO REACH GRAND FORKS AREA TIL VERY
LATE TODAY. SO CLOUDY IDEA WAY TO GO. NO ADJUSTMENT TO HIGHS TODAY
BUT COULD HAVE TO BE NUDGED DOWN A FEW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
UPPER LOW MOVING INTO EASTERN ONTARIO EARLY THIS MORNING. ISSUE
TODAY WILL BE CLOUD TRENDS AND THEN CHANCE OF PRECIP WITH NEXT
WEAK SHORT WAVE FOR LATER TODAY/THIS. WRAPAROUND STRATOCU FIELD
BEHIND UPPER LOW EXTENDS BACK OVER ALL OF SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND
THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH DAKOTA AND ALL OF MINNESOTA. BACK EDGE
HAS BEEN CLEARING SLOWLY AND IS NEAR A STANLEY TO BISMARCK LINE
AND TIMING TOOLS SHOW AT ITS CURRENT RATE IT WILL REACH WRN FCST
AREA BY 15Z AND INTO THE RRV BUT PERHAPS NOT AS LATE AS 21-23Z. USING
THE SFC RIDGE AXIS AS BACK EDGE OF THE STRATOCU AND LATEST HRRR IT
WOULD HAVE CLEARING TRYING TO COME INTO THE VALLEY 18Z-19Z. CLOUDS
WILL PUT A DAMPER ON TEMPS. NEXT SHORT WAVE IS PACIFIC MOISTURE IN
NATURE AND IS MOVING INTO WESTERN MONTANA. THIS WILL MOVE INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE TODAY AND SPREAD THRU ERN ND THIS
EVENING AND INTO MINNESOTA TONIGHT. EXPECT A FEW RAIN SHOWERS WITH
THIS SYSTEM THOUGH WITH MOISTURE PACIFIC IN NATURE AND MOSTLY MID
LEVEL BASED AMOUNTS OF PRECIP WILL BE QUITE LOW...A FEW HUNDREDTHS
AT BEST. TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM IS A BIT SLOWER THAN IT SHOWED ON
PAST DAYS.
BEHIND THIS SHORT WAVE...A FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE NOW WELL NORTH
OF YELLOWKNIFE NWT WILL MOVE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AND TOWARD THE MN
ARROWHEAD THURSDAY AFTN. EXPECT A FAST MOVING BUT SHARP COLD FRONT
TO DROP SOUTH THRU THE AREA THURSDAY ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF GUSTY
NORTH WINDS. MODELS HAVE HAVE TRENDED A BIT COLDER WITH THIS
SYSTEM AND ALSO A BIT FARTHER WEST WITH SFC HIGH PLACEMENT. WILL
KEEP SOME LOW POPS IN THE NORTHEASTERN FCST AREA FOR RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS THURSDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTN. ALSO TRIMMED HIGHS THURSDAY
A FEW DEGREES AND UPPED WINDS A BIT HIGHER THAN BLENDED SOLNS DUE
TO TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND QUICK SHOT OF STRONG 850 MB COLD
ADVECTION.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
850 MB TEMPS DROP TO -10C BY 00Z FRI AS HIGH SETTLES SOUTH INTO
CNTRL ND. EXPECT A CLEAR SKY FOR MOST AREAS WITH COLDEST VALUES
AND LESS WIND IN CNTRL-ERN ND. PAST FEW RUNS HAVE SHOWN A BIT
COLDER AIRMASS...AND WITH THAT DROPPED LOWS FOR FRI AM A FEW
DEGREES...BUT NOT QUITE AS COLD AS SOME MODELS. GENERALLY WENT
15-20F FOR ERN ND AND 20-25 IN MN. FRIDAY WILL BE A CHILLY DAY
WITH SUNSHINE WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE 30S. RETURN FLOW SETS UP LATE
FRI AFTN IN WRN FCST AND SPREAD EAST FRI NIGHT. ALSO SOME INCREASE
IN HIGH CLOUDS FRI NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST.
FOR SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON
SATURDAY WILL KEEP THINGS QUIET PCPN WISE BUT IT SHOULD BE A LITTLE
BREEZY. START TO GET INTO SOUTHWEST FLOW ON SUNDAY AS A 500MB TROUGH
DIGS INTO THE ROCKIES. MODELS DIFFER A LITTLE IN HOW TO HANDLE THE
ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THIS SYSTEM WITH THE ECMWF/GEM SHOWING TWO
WEAK SFC LOWS...ONE OVER WESTERN ND AND THE SECOND OVER EASTERN
COLORADO. GFS HAS ONE COMBINED LOW OVER WESTERN NE. GUIDANCE FAVORS
THE ECMWF/GEM SOLUTION WHICH WOULD HAVE SOME WEAK SHOWERS OVER THE
WESTERN FA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NORTHERN LOW. BY MONDAY
EACH MODEL DIFFERS QUITE A BIT WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING THE NORTHERN
SFC LOW DOMINANT WHILE THE GEM SHOWS THE SOUTHERN ONE MORE SO AND
THE GFS IN BETWEEN. THIS TRANSLATES INTO THE ECMWF BYPASSING MOST OF
THE FA WITH ANY PCPN...THE GFS RIGHT OVER THE FA AND THE GEM OVER
THE SOUTHERN FA. WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THIS WORKS OUT WITH LATER
RUNS. BY TUE DRY WEATHER SHOULD RETURN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
ISSUE TODAY IS WHEN OR IF LOWER MVFR/IFR CLOUDS CLEAR OUT.
BACK EDGE OF CLEARING OF MVFR DECK SLOWLY MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST AND
BASED ON TIMING OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS PROGGED TO REACH DVL NR 18Z
AND FAR 20Z AND GFK 21Z (IF THEN). THIS TIME PERIOD DOES FOLLOW
LATEST HRRR AS WELL. WILL HAVE TO SEE IF ENOUGH SUN HEATING ON TOP
OF CLOUD DECK TO ERODE A BIT FASTER BUT CONSIDERING MUCH WEAKER
SUN CHANCES ARE GETTING MUCH SLIMMER. OTHER THAN THAT 06Z MODELS
LOOKING LIKE A BIT BETTER BET FOR SOME -RA TONIGHT IN THE AREA SO
ADDED IT TO TAFS MAINLY THIS EVE AT DVL/FAR/GFK/TVF AND OVERNIGHT
AT BJI. WINDS TO TURN NORTH OVERNIGHT IN THE RRV/DVL BASIN.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...GODON/RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
646 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 646 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY SKY GRIDS BASED ON THE
CURRENT OBS/TRENDS OF THE STRATUS SHIELD MOVING INTO EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINING WEATHER ELEMENTS ARE IN GOOD
SHAPE. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
TIMING OF THE EXIT OF THE LARGE CLOUD SHIELD OVER THE STATE...THEN
CHANCES OF SHOWERS TODAY ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST.
CURRENTLY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED FROM NORTHERN
MANITOBA ACROSS THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS AND INTO NEBRASKA. A LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF HUDSON BAY. A
LARGE CLOUD SHIELD OF WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
EXTENDED WESTWARD TO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. TO THE WEST...A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDED ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES FROM A
LOW OVER ALBERTA SOUTHWARD ACROSS MONTANA AND WYOMING.
THE CLOUD DECK CONTINUED TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE HUDSON
BAY LOW CONTINUES MOVING NORTHEAST...AND AS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
RIDGING MOVES INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA FROM THE WEST. LATEST SAT
PICS INDICATE THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CLOUD DECK WAS NEAR
STANLEY...TO MANDAN/BISMARCK...TO NEAR FORT YATES. KEPT THE MENTION
OF PATCHY FOG IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. AS SKIES CLEAR...RESIDUAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPS THAT MAY DROP
QUICKLY...CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SHOULD HAVE THESE CONDITIONS IN THOSE
FEW HOURS BEFORE/AROUND SUNRISE.
THE LATEST HRRR RUNS INDICATE THE CLOUD DECK SHOULD CLEAR THE
JAMESTOWN AREA BEFORE NOON. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE LOW LEVEL
RELATIVE HUMIDITY FIELD OF THE NAM.
FOLLOWING THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST IS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO ENTER WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA BEFORE/AROUND NOON...AND MOVE EAST ACROSS THE STATE DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE STATE.
EXPECTING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA BEGINNING LATE MORNING IN THE WEST...AND KEPT CHANCES IN FOR
ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
LINGERING CHANCES IN THE JAMES VALLEY THIS EVENING.
TONIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW THE EXITING SURFACE LOW...AND WINDS
WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY...GOOD COLD ADVECTION WILL BEGIN...AND A
LARGE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE GREAT PLAINS WILL
GENERATE DRY CONDITIONS OVER NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST AS COOL CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION.
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG A SHORTWAVE TO LIFT
SOMEWHERE INTO EASTERN MONTANA/WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE ECMWF/GEM HAVE WEAKENED THE
SHORTWAVE AND HAVE NUDGED ITS TRACK A LITTLE FARTHER WEST INTO
MONTANA. HOWEVER...THE LATEST GFS IS SLOWER AND STRONGER WITH THE
PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM...PLACING IT OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
MONDAY. IF THE GFS WERE TO VERIFY...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WOULD BE
AN ISSUE OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY.
GIVEN THE MODEL TO MODEL AND RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCIES...WILL
CONTINUE TO FORECAST A MODEL BLEND. GIVEN THE RECENT WEAKENING
ECMWF AND GEM TRENDS...WILL NOT GET TOO EXCITED FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES SUNDAY-MONDAY. IT IS
EXPECTED THAT LATER RUNS OF THE GFS WILL BEGIN TO TREND TOWARDS
THE ECMWF AS IT HAS ALL SEASON. NEVERTHELESS...WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN FORECAST TUESDAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING
DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 646 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
MVFR TO LOW VFR STRATUS HAS CLEARED AT STANLEY...BISMARCK...FORT
YATES. CLEARING IS NEAR KMOT AND LINTON. KEPT A MENTION OF MVFR
VSBYS IN FOG AT KBIS AND KMOT ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
STRATUS. CLEARING AT KJMS AROUND 16Z. SOME SLIGHT CHANCES OF
SHOWERS TODAY BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH REGARDING MENTION IN TAFS. A
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AROUND 01Z-03Z AND
SWEEPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE BRINGING MVFR CIGS BEHIND IT.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...JV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
637 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
BACKEDGE OF CLEARING LINE STILL EVER SO SLOWLY CLEARING EAST-
NORTHEAST. STILL NOT PROGGED TO REACH GRAND FORKS AREA TIL VERY
LATE TODAY. SO CLOUDY IDEA WAY TO GO. NO ADJUSTMENT TO HIGHS TODAY
BUT COULD HAVE TO BE NUDGED DOWN A FEW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
UPPER LOW MOVING INTO EASTERN ONTARIO EARLY THIS MORNING. ISSUE
TODAY WILL BE CLOUD TRENDS AND THEN CHANCE OF PRECIP WITH NEXT
WEAK SHORT WAVE FOR LATER TODAY/THIS. WRAPAROUND STRATOCU FIELD
BEHIND UPPER LOW EXTENDS BACK OVER ALL OF SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND
THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH DAKOTA AND ALL OF MINNESOTA. BACKEDGE
HAS BEEN CLEARING SLOWLY AND IS NEAR A STANLEY TO BISMARCK LINE
AND TIMING TOOLS SHOW AT ITS CURRENT RATE IT WILL REACH WRN FCST
AREA BY 15Z AND INTO THE RRV BUT PERHAPS NOT AS LATE AS 21-23Z. USING
THE SFC RIDGE AXIS AS BACKEDGE OF THE STRATOCU AND LATEST HRRR IT
WOULD HAVE CLEARING TRYING TO COME INTO THE VALLEY 18Z-19Z. CLOUDS
WILL PUT A DAMPER ON TEMPS. NEXT SHORT WAVE IS PACIFIC MOISTURE IN
NATURE AND IS MOVING INTO WESTERN MONTANA. THIS WILL MOVE INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE TODAY AND SPREAD THRU ERN ND THIS
EVENING AND INTO MINNESOTA TONIGHT. EXPECT A FEW RAIN SHOWERS WITH
THIS SYSTEM THOUGH WITH MOISTURE PACIFIC IN NATURE AND MOSTLY MID
LEVEL BASED AMOUNTS OF PRECIP WILL BE QUITE LOW...A FEW HUNDREDTHS
AT BEST. TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM IS A BIT SLOWER THAN IT SHOWED ON
PAST DAYS.
BEHIND THIS SHORT WAVE...A FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE NOW WELL NORTH
OF YELLOWKNIFE NWT WILL MOVE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AND TOWARD THE MN
ARROWHEAD THURSDAY AFTN. EXPECT A FAST MOVING BUT SHARP COLD FRONT
TO DROP SOUTH THRU THE AREA THURSDAY ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF GUSTY
NORTH WINDS. MODELS HAVE HAVE TRENDED A BIT COLDER WITH THIS
SYSTEM AND ALSO A BIT FARTHER WEST WITH SFC HIGH PLACEMENT. WILL
KEEP SOME LOW POPS IN THE NORTHEASTERN FCST AREA FOR RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS THURSDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTN. ALSO TRIMMED HIGHS THURSDAY
A FEW DEGREES AND UPPED WINDS A BIT HIGHER THAN BLENDED SOLNS DUE
TO TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND QUICK SHOT OF STRONG 850 MB COLD
ADVECTION.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
850 MB TEMPS DROP TO -10C BY 00Z FRI AS HIGH SETTLES SOUTH INTO
CNTRL ND. EXPECT A CLEAR SKY FOR MOST AREAS WITH COLDEST VALUES
AND LESS WIND IN CNTRL-ERN ND. PAST FEW RUNS HAVE SHOWN A BIT
COLDER AIRMASS...AND WITH THAT DROPPED LOWS FOR FRI AM A FEW
DEGREES...BUT NOT QUITE AS COLD AS SOME MODELS. GENERALLY WENT
15-20F FOR ERN ND AND 20-25 IN MN. FRIDAY WILL BE A CHILLY DAY
WITH SUNSHINE WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE 30S. RETURN FLOW SETS UP LATE
FRI AFTN IN WRN FCST AND SPREAD EAST FRI NIGHT. ALSO SOME INCREASE
IN HIGH CLOUDS FRI NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST.
FOR SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON
SATURDAY WILL KEEP THINGS QUIET PCPN WISE BUT IT SHOULD BE A LITTLE
BREEZY. START TO GET INTO SOUTHWEST FLOW ON SUNDAY AS A 500MB TROUGH
DIGS INTO THE ROCKIES. MODELS DIFFER A LITTLE IN HOW TO HANDLE THE
ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THIS SYSTEM WITH THE ECMWF/GEM SHOWING TWO
WEAK SFC LOWS...ONE OVER WESTERN ND AND THE SECOND OVER EASTERN
COLORADO. GFS HAS ONE COMBINED LOW OVER WESTERN NE. GUIDANCE FAVORS
THE ECMWF/GEM SOLUTION WHICH WOULD HAVE SOME WEAK SHOWERS OVER THE
WESTERN FA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NORTHERN LOW. BY MONDAY
EACH MODEL DIFFERS QUITE A BIT WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING THE NORTHERN
SFC LOW DOMINANT WHILE THE GEM SHOWS THE SOUTHERN ONE MORE SO AND
THE GFS IN BETWEEN. THIS TRANSLATES INTO THE ECMWF BYPASSING MOST OF
THE FA WITH ANY PCPN...THE GFS RIGHT OVER THE FA AND THE GEM OVER
THE SOUTHERN FA. WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THIS WORKS OUT WITH LATER
RUNS. BY TUE DRY WEATHER SHOULD RETURN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
ISSUE TODAY IS WHEN OR IF LOWER MVFR/IFR CLOUDS CLEAR OUT.
BACKEDGE OF CLEARING OF MVFR DECK SLOWLY MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST AND
BASED ON TIMING OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS PROGGED TO REACH DVL NR 18Z
AND FAR 20Z AND GFK 21Z (IF THEN). THIS TIME PERIOD DOES FOLLOW
LATEST HRRR AS WELL. WILL HAVE TO SEE IF ENOUGH SUN HEATING ON TOP
OF CLOUD DECK TO ERODE A BIT FASTER BUT CONSIDERING MUCH WEAKER
SUN CHANCES ARE GETTING MUCH SLIMMER. OTHER THAN THAT 06Z MODELS
LOOKING LIKE A BIT BETTER BET FOR SOME -RA TONIGHT IN THE AREA SO
ADDED IT TO TAFS MAINLY THIS EVE AT DVL/FAR/GFK/TVF AND OVERNIGHT
AT BJI. WINDS TO TURN NORTH OVERNIGHT IN THE RRV/DVL BASIN.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...GODON/RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
406 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS CONCLUDE BEHIND A COLD FRONT PUSHING OFFSHORE TONIGHT.
SEASONABLE AND DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS INTO THE END OF THE WEEK
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. A COASTAL STORM WILL LIKELY DELIVER A GLANCING
BLOW TO THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...BUT THE OPPORTUNITY
FOR A HIGHER IMPACT STILL EXISTS. MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOLLOWS WITH
A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND BY NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
230 PM UPDATE...
COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS S NEW ENGLAND WITH SHOWERY WEATHER AND
THICKER CLOUDS IN TOW. CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO WARM BENEATH THE
THIN VEIL OF MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS. SW-FLOW CONTINUES TO GUST
IN EXCESS OF 25 MPH ALONG THE S/SE SHORELINE.
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD INTO THIS
EVENING IS THE TIMING OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE MAIN DRIVING FORCE
THAT BEING THE STRETCHED MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. WITH CONDITIONS
WARMING ACROSS SE NEW ENGLAND BENEATH A CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT...ECHO OVERNIGHT FORECASTERS THOUGHTS CONCERNING THE
POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ACROSS SE NEW
ENGLAND. NOTHING SEVERE.
ASIDE...EXPECT A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER DOWNPOURS
TO MARCH ACROSS THE REGION INTO THIS EVENING BENEATH FAVORABLE
DEEP-LAYER ASCENT. FEEL THE HIGH-RES WRF GUIDANCE AND HRRR HAVE A
GOOD HANDLE ON THE PRESENT SITUATION...ALBEIT SLIGHT DIFFERENCES.
COULD SEE THE LINE OF SHOWERS BECOME DIFFUSE WITH ITS TRACK TO THE
S AND E. SPECULATE THIS TO BE CONSEQUENTIAL OF STRETCHED MID-LEVEL
ENERGY AND PERHAPS THE COLD FRONT BECOMING TOO SEPARATED FROM ITS
PARENT MID-LEVEL TROUGH. ALSO PERHAPS AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES
OFFSHORE TOWARDS A BETTER MOIST-INSTABILITY AXIS ACTIVITY ERUPTS
THAT USURPS ACTIVITY TO THE W. ALL SORTS OF FACTORS...BUT ASIDE
NOT A BIG DEAL BUT JUST A SWEEPING WET-WEATHER MAKER.
ALREADY 72-DEGREES HERE AT THE TAUNTON WFO. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE WARMING INTO THE MID-70S FOR S/SE NEW ENGLAND. A BLEND
OF THE RAP APPEARS GOOD ENOUGH WITH REGARDS TO 2M TEMPERATURES
THOUGH NOT HANDLING THE WARM-FRONT ALL THAT WELL.
TONIGHT...
MAIN TROUGH AXIS PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. COLD FRONT
PUSHES OFFSHORE AS CLOUDS AND SHOWERS LINGER REARWARD ACROSS S- AND
E-PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND TOWARDS THURSDAY MORNING. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
LIKELY BLANKET OF MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS AND WET WEATHER WILL
KEEP CONDITIONS MILD TOWARDS SHORES WITH LOWS AROUND THE MID-40S.
ELSEWHERE...GRADUAL CLEARING EXPECTED W TO E AS W-WINDS DRIVE COOLER
AND DRIER AIR ACROSS THE REGION. COOLEST CONDITIONS N AND W YET
WINDS /MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER/ WILL LIKELY LIMIT
EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECTING LOWS AROUND THE UPPER-30S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD E. SUBSIDENCE AND SINKING AIR IN
CONTROL OF THE REGIONS WEATHER. WITH A COOLER AIRMASS CONTINUING TO
BUILD WITHIN THE LOW-LEVELS /H85 JUST BELOW THE FREEZING MARK/
EXPECT A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY-LAYER ALLOWING FOR DRIER AIR TO MIX-
DOWN /DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID-30S/ AND DEVELOPMENT OF A SCATTERED
CUMULUS DECK AROUND 5-6 KFT.
HIGHS AROUND THE 50S EXPECTED WHICH IS JUST ABOUT NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.
THURSDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. COLD
AIRMASS BELOW FREEZING REMAINS ALOFT. A GOOD CASE FOR EFFECTIVE
RADIATIONAL COOLING...THAT IS IF CLOUDS DO NOT BECOME AN ISSUE.
CONSIDERING DEWPOINTS AROUND THE MID-30S ON THURSDAY...IT IS
POSSIBLE LOCATIONS COULD COOL BELOW THE CROSSOVER THRESHOLD IF THE
CONDITIONS ARE RIGHT AND WE ARE ALLOWED TO RADIATE OUT EFFECTIVELY.
BUT BENEATH CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH WHICH WEAK IMPULSES WILL GLIDE...
THERE IS ALWAYS THAT POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCEMENT OF MID-LEVEL LIFT AND
CONVERGENCE YIELDING A BLANKETING CLOUD BASE.
IF CONDITIONS REMAIN CLEAR...THERE IS ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO SPECULATE
THAT SHALLOW GROUND FOG WILL DEVELOP WHEREVER SOILS ARE SATURATED
/I.E. SWAMPY BOGS/. LOWS WOULD BOTTOM DOWN AROUND THE MID-30S...LOW-
30S FOR THOSE AREAS THAT RADIATE. WARMEST CONDITIONS ALONG THE
SHORES. BUT WILL GO CONSERVATIVE WITH THIS FORECAST CONSIDERING THE
POTENTIAL FOR MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECKS AND HOLD WITH LOWS AROUND THE
UPPER-30S. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR FROST / FREEZE HEADLINES MAY BE
NECESSARY FOR S/E COASTAL MA AND RI.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* COOL ON FRIDAY
* GLANCING BLOW FAVORED SAT/EARLY SUN BUT HIGHER IMPACT POSSIBLE
* BIGGEST CONCERN IS STRONG WINDS LATE SAT/SUN ESP CAPE COD
* ACCUMULATING SNOW IS STILL POSSIBLE BUT A RATHER LOW PROBABILITY
* MUCH MILDER WEATHER RETURNS BY NEXT TUE AND WED
DETAILS...
FRIDAY...
AN ENLONGATED HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL RESULT
IN A RATHER CLOUDY/COOL DAY WITH EASTERLY WINDS. A SPOT SHOWER AND
PERHAPS EVEN SOME DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST DURING
THE AFTERNOON...BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY. HIGHS WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...TO THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 50S ELSEWHERE.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS QUITE LOW OVER THIS TIME. ENSEMBLE
SENSITIVITY PLOTS SHOW THE ENERGY RESPONSIBLE FOR DEVELOPING THE
EVENTUAL STORM IS STILL NEAR THE ARCTIC CIRCLE. THIS LEAVES PLENTY
OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK/STRENGTH AND IMPACTS ACROSS THE REGION.
WITH THAT SAID...CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS A GLANCING BLOW AND
NOT A DIRECT HIT FOR OUR REGION. THE BIGGEST CONCERN RIGHT NOW IS
FOR STRONG TO PERHAPS DAMAGING WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CAPE
AND NANTUCKET. THERE ARE TWO MAIN SHORTWAVES INVOLVED IN STORM
FORMATION. INITIALLY...MOST MODELS FORM AN ENLONGATED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OR EVEN TWO CENTERS BEFORE CONSOLIDATING INTO ONE STORM.
CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS HAPPENS TOO LATE FOR A SIGNIFICANT
RAIN/SNOW EVENT IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
A BIG CAVEAT IS THAT THIS EVENT IS CURRENTLY PROGGED BETWEEN 72 AND
96 HOUR OUT...WHICH IS QUITE A BIT OF TIME IN THE MODEL WORLD. IF
THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE IS WEAKER THAN CURRENTLY DEPICTED...THE STORM
WILL INTENSIFY EARLIER AND CLOSER TO THE COAST. WHILE THIS IS A
LOWER PROBABILITY AT THIS POINT...ITS CERTAINLY IN THE REALM OF
POSSIBILITIES. WHAT EVER HAPPENS...WE CAN SAY THAT EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND WILL HAVE MORE OF AN IMPACT THAN THE INTERIOR.
PTYPE AND TIMING...
A LOT OF THIS WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAR WEST THE MAIN PRECIPITATION
SHIELD REACHES. INITIALLY...ALL PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM
OF RAIN OR JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY. IN FACT...MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN EASTERN NEW ENGLAND...WITH JUST A FEW
SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS IF THE CURRENT TRACK VERIFIES. IF
THE TRACK SHIFTS WEST AND WE END UP GETTING INTO HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION SAT NIGHT AND EARLY SUN...DYNAMIC COOLING WOULD CHANGE
PTYPE TO SNOW AT LEAST IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN...BASED ON
EXPECTED TRACK ACCUMULATING SNOW IS A RATHER LOW PROBABILITY...BUT
STILL CAN/T BE RULED OUT. WHAT EVER HAPPENS...MOST PRECIPITATION
SHOULD HAVE EXITED THE REGION BY MID MORNING ON SUNDAY.
STRONG WINDS...
STRONG WINDS ARE THE ONE THING WE ARE FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT WILL
DEVELOP. EXCELLENT MIXING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE STORM SHOULD
RESULT IN NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH DEVELOPING
LATE SAT AND ESPECIALLY SUN AS MIXING INCREASES. ACROSS THE CAPE
AND NANTUCKET...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE STORM MAY SEE A PERIOD
OF 50 TO 60 MPH WIND GUSTS. WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH
OF THE REGION AND PERHAPS HIGH WIND WATCHES/WARNINGS FOR THE CAPE
AND NANTUCKET. GIVEN MANY TREES STILL HAVE AT LEAST SOME LEAVES ON
THEM...THE RISK FOR TREE DAMAGE AND ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES WILL BE
ENHANCED.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE REGION AND WE ENTER AN AREA
OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND EXPECTED WITH
SOME OF THE COASTAL PLAIN POSSIBLY SEEING HIGHS BREAK 60 BY TUE OR
WED. MAINLY DRY WEATHER OVER THIS TIME...BUT A SPOT SHOWER OR TWO IS
POSSIBLE.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. LOW-END VFR/MVFR WITH LINE OF -RA EXPECTED TO SWEEP
THE TERMINALS INTO THIS EVENING AHEAD OF WHICH SW-WINDS PREVAIL
GUSTING AROUND 20-25 KTS ALONG THE S/SE SHORELINE. AN ISOLATED
TSRA IS POSSIBLE OVER SE-TERMINALS...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
PREVAIL IN TAF.
TONIGHT...WINDS BACK W BEHIND THE LINE...DIMINISHING. MAINLY VFR.
LOW-END VFR/MVFR CIGS WITH -RA LINGER OVER S AND E TERMINALS INTO
MIDNIGHT...IMPROVING AFTER AS ACTIVITY PUSHES OFFSHORE.
THURSDAY...VFR. LIGHT W-WINDS. SCT CIGS 4-5 KFT ACROSS INTERIOR
TERMINALS.
THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. LIGHT/VRB WINDS. SKC. SHALLOW PATCHY GROUND
FOG POSSIBLE AT PRONE TERMINALS.
KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR TO START BUT
ONSHORE FLOW MAY RESULT IN MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING FRI AFTERNOON AND
ESPECIALLY FRI NIGHT. A SPOT SHOWER OR TWO IS POSSIBLE.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON UNCERTAINTY OF
TRACK/STRENGTH AND TIMING OF COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. MOST
LIKELY SCENARIO IS VFR TO BE MIXED IN AT TIMES WITH MVFR SAT INTO
SAT NIGHT. LOWER CONDITIONS MOST LIKELY AT THE COAST WITH RAIN OR
SCATTERED SHOWERS. LOW PROBABILITY FOR A CHANGE TO SNOW AT THE END.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR BY SUNDAY...BUT NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS EXPECTED. STRONGEST WINDS CAPE AND
NANTUCKET WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS POSSIBLE.
MONDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WINDS STILL AN ISSUE ALONG THE S/SE COASTLINE WITH GUSTS UP TO 25
KTS AND WILL REMAIN SO AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE WATERS THIS EVENING. WINDS BACK W AND DIMINISH ALONG
WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS TOWARDS THURSDAY MORNING. SHOULD SEE
SEAS GRADUALLY DIMINISH BELOW SMALL-CRAFT THRESHOLDS UNDER LIGHT
W-WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. MUCH OF THE DAY THURSDAY...AND ONTO THURSDAY NIGHT...
LOOKS LIKE GOOD BOATING WEATHER.
OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THOUGH MONDAY...
***STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS AND 20 FOOT SEAS POSSIBLE LATE SAT INTO
SUNDAY ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLANTIC WATERS***
FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL RESULT IN
EASTERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 15 KNOTS. GRADIENT WILL BE WEAK ENOUGH
THOUGH TO KEEP WINDS SPEEDS/SEAS WELL BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. HIGH IMPACT MARINE EVENT
EXPECTED. WHILE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING
OF COASTAL LOW PRESSURE...GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS ACROSS
MOST WATERS ARE PRETTY MUCH A SLAM DUNK LATE SAT INTO SUN. IN
FACT...DECENT CHANCE IN A PERIOD OF STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS WITH 20
FOOT SEAS ACROSS OUR EASTERN ATLANTIC WATERS. EXACT WIND SPEEDS AND
WAVE HEIGHTS WILL DEPEND UPON THE EXACT TRACK/INTENSITY OF COASTAL
LOW PRESSURE...BUT APPEARS THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF A HIGH IMPACT
MARINE EVENT.
MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. NORTHWEST SCA WIND GUSTS AND SEAS
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE MUCH OF THE DAY WITH GOOD MIXING IN THE COLD
AIR ADVECTION PATTERN.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES ARE NOT HIGH LATE SAT INTO SUN...BUT THERE
IS EVEN A LOW PROBABILITY FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. THE CONCERN
IS FOR THE EARLY MORNING HIGH TIDE ON SUNDAY. IF WE END UP
REALIZING 20 FOOT SEAS OVER THE OPEN OCEAN AND NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS
OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS...THERE COULD BE SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND
EROSION. SOME OF THE HOT SPOTS WOULD BE SALISBURY AND PLUM
ISLAND...HULL...SCITUATE AND PERHAPS SANDWICH HARBOR AND NANTUCKET
HARBOR. AGAIN...IT WILL DEPEND ON EXACT WIND SPEEDS/WAVE HEIGHTS
OUT OVER THE OCEAN DURING THE EARLY MORNING SUNDAY HIGH TIDE
CYCLE.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ231>234-250.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...FRANK/SIPPRELL
MARINE...FRANK/SIPPRELL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...FRANK
*** FORECAST DISCUSSION STILL UNDER DEVELOPMENT ***
BIG PICTURE...
29/00Z GUIDANCE SUITE CONTINUES TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.
THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF ROOM FOR IMPROVEMENT REGARDING THE
DETAILS. THE WEATHER THIS WEEK WILL BE DRIVEN BY A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED...ANOMALOUS PATTERN. THE CORE OF AN OFFSHORE LOW
PRESSURE WAS ABOUT 1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL. THE
CORE OF THE 500 MB LOW WAS NEARLY 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW
NORMAL.
THIS MEANS WE NEED TO KEEP THE GUIDANCE DETAILS IN PERSPECTIVE...
AS MODELS TYPICALLY DO NOT HANDLE EXTREME EVENTS PERFECTLY. IT IS
ENCOURAGING TO SEE THE GUIDANCE CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION THOUGH.
WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR A CONSENSUS MEAN SOLUTION TO SMOOTH OVER
SOME OF THE MINOR DIFFERENCES. WE EXPECT BETTER AGREEMENT OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS NOW THAT THE ENERGY WHICH WILL PRODUCE THIS COASTAL
STORM WILL BE OVER LAND AND BETTER SAMPLED.
THE 29/00 ECMWF STILL REMAINS SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST AND QUICKER
WITH IT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE. THAT SAID...ITS TRACK IS STILL EAST
OF 70W LONGITUDE AS IT PASSES BY OUR REGION. THIS SHOULD MEAN THE
GREATEST EFFECTS SHOULD BE FELT TOWARD THE COASTS.
THE DAILIES...
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...COOLING ALOFT WITH WEAK RIDGING NEAR
THE SURFACE. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE WEATHER DRY INTO AT LEAST THE
FIRST PART OF FRIDAY. AS A SHORTWAVE DIVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES
TROUGH AND TURNS THE UPPER FLOW OVER US MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.
MEANWHILE WEAK RIDGING BUILDS TO OUR NORTH AND TURNS OUR WIND
EAST OR NORTHEAST.
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...THIS WILL BE THE MAIN PERIOD OF RISK FOR
PRECIPITATION DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. STRONG MID
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE ATLANTIC
COAST. UPPER JET FROM CENTRAL CANADA FEEDS AROUND THIS UPPER
TROUGH WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION MOVING OVER THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY. THIS SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF A COASTAL LOW
DEVELOPING. STILL SOME QUESTIONS WITH THE TRACK...WHICH WILL BE A
KEY INGREDIENT TO DETERMINING PRECIPITATION TYPE.
CONFIDENT THAT THERE WILL BE UNSETTLED WEATHER THIS WEEKEND...WITH
GREATEST RISK ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN AND DIMINISHING POPS
FARTHER NORTHWEST. WILL REFLECT THIS WITH LIKELY POPS SOUTHEAST
GRADING TO CHANCE POPS NORTHWEST. LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
PRECIPITATION TYPE. MUCH OF THIS TIME SHOULD BE RAIN. WITH TEMPERATURES
FORECAST TO FALL TO FREEZING OR BELOW SATURDAY NIGHT...THE RESULT
WILL BE SOME SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.
LINGERING CLOUDS BENEATH THE COLD POOL ALOFT...ESPECIALLY ON
MONDAY. OTHERWISE FAIR AND DRY WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL
BY TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. LOW-END VFR/MVFR WITH LINE OF -RA EXPECTED TO SWEEP
THE TERMINALS INTO THIS EVENING AHEAD OF WHICH SW-WINDS PREVAIL
GUSTING AROUND 20-25 KTS ALONG THE S/SE SHORELINE. AN ISOLATED
TSRA IS POSSIBLE OVER SE-TERMINALS...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
PREVAIL IN TAF.
TONIGHT...WINDS BACK W BEHIND THE LINE...DIMINISHING. MAINLY VFR.
LOW-END VFR/MVFR CIGS WITH -RA LINGER OVER S AND E TERMINALS INTO
MIDNIGHT...IMPROVING AFTER AS ACTIVITY PUSHES OFFSHORE.
THURSDAY...VFR. LIGHT W-WINDS. SCT CIGS 4-5 KFT ACROSS INTERIOR
TERMINALS.
THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. LIGHT/VRB WINDS. SKC. SHALLOW PATCHY GROUND
FOG POSSIBLE AT PRONE TERMINALS.
KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND
PRECIPITATION TYPE. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION
OCCURRENCE. CIGS/VSBYS LOWERING TO IFR COASTAL PLAIN AND MVFR
NORTHWEST. COASTAL STORM PASSES BY LATER SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ESPECIALLY KMHT-KORH-KBAF-KBDL.
PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF SUNDAY. NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS WITH GUSTS
ALONG THE COAST 25-35 KNOTS SATURDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY WITH
GUSTS 25 TO 30 KNOTS INLAND AND 30 TO 40 KNOTS ALONG THE COAST.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WINDS STILL AN ISSUE ALONG THE S/SE COASTLINE WITH GUSTS UP TO 25
KTS AND WILL REMAIN SO AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE WATERS THIS EVENING. WINDS BACK W AND DIMINISH ALONG
WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS TOWARDS THURSDAY MORNING. SHOULD SEE
SEAS GRADUALLY DIMINISH BELOW SMALL-CRAFT THRESHOLDS UNDER LIGHT
W-WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. MUCH OF THE DAY THURSDAY...AND ONTO THURSDAY NIGHT...
LOOKS LIKE GOOD BOATING WEATHER.
OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
FRIDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE WATERS. NORTHWEST
WINDS THURSDAY BECOME NORTHEAST FRIDAY BUT REMAIN BELOW 20 KNOTS.
SEAS GENERALLY LESS THAN 5 FEET.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...COASTAL LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE
CAROLINAS AND MOVES UP THE COAST. MODERATE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
EXACT TRACK AND TIMING...WITH THE GENERAL CONSENSUS SOLUTION
STAYING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. AT LEAST
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS SATURDAY 25 TO 35 KNOTS SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST 30 TO
40 KNOTS SUNDAY. A GALE WATCH/GALE WARNING MAY EVENTUALLY BE
NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ231>234-250.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235-
237.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/SIPPRELL
MARINE...BELK/SIPPRELL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
124 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. THE FRONT
WILL PUSH OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHICH WILL BRING DRY...SEASONABLE
CONDITIONS. A DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM OFF THE CAROLINAS WILL
PASS OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
EASTERN USA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
130 PM UPDATE...
COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS S NEW ENGLAND WITH SHOWERY WEATHER AND
THICKER CLOUDS IN TOW. FOG HAS ALL BUT DISSIPATED BENEATH THE THIN
VEIL OF MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS AS ITS TRANSPARENCY HAS ALLOWED
CONDITIONS TO WARM RESULTING IN THE WARM-FRONT TO PUSH N INTO NH
AND ME...AIDED BY SW-FLOW WHICH CONTINUES TO GUST IN EXCESS OF 25
MPH ALONG THE S/SE SHORELINE.
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD INTO THIS
EVENING IS THE TIMING OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE MAIN DRIVING FORCE
THAT BEING THE STRETCHED MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. WITH CONDITIONS
WARMING ACROSS SE NEW ENGLAND BENEATH A CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT...ECHO THE OVERNIGHT FORECASTERS THOUGHTS CONCERNING
THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ACROSS THE
AFOREMENTIONED REGION. NOTHING SEVERE.
ASIDE...EXPECT A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER DOWNPOURS
TO MARCH ACROSS THE REGION INTO THIS EVENING BENEATH FAVORABLE
DEEP-LAYER ASCENT. FEEL THE HIGH-RES WRF GUIDANCE AND HRRR HAVE A
GOOD HANDLE ON THE PRESENT SITUATION...ALBEIT SLIGHT DIFFERENCES.
COULD SEE THE LINE OF SHOWERS BECOME DIFFUSE WITH ITS TRACK TO THE
S AND E. SPECULATE THIS TO BE CONSEQUENTIAL OF STRETCHED MID-LEVEL
ENERGY AND PERHAPS THE COLD FRONT BECOMING TOO SEPARATED FROM ITS
PARENT MID-LEVEL TROUGH. ALSO PERHAPS AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES
OFFSHORE TOWARDS A BETTER MOIST-INSTABILITY AXIS ACTIVITY ERUPTS
THAT USURPS ACTIVITY TO THE W. ALL SORTS OF FACTORS...BUT ASIDE
NOT A BIG DEAL BUT JUST A SWEEPING WET-WEATHER MAKER.
ALREADY 72-DEGREES HERE AT THE TAUNTON WFO. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE WARMING INTO THE MID-70S FOR SE NEW ENGLAND. A BLEND OF
THE HRRR/RAP APPEARS SPOT-ON WITH REGARDS TO 2M TEMPERATURES
THOUGH NOT HANDLING THE WARM-FRONT ALL THAT WELL...AND HENCE THE
HEADACHES WITH THIS MORNINGS FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...
THE H5 LONG WAVE TROUGH PUSHES E...AND APPROACHING WESTERN AREAS
BY EARLY THURSDAY. SCT SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH MIDNIGHT OR SO
ACROSS E MA/RI/NE CT...BUT SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER THAT. H85 TEMPS
WILL STEADILY DROP OVERNIGHT...BUT SOME CLOUDS WILL LINGER. BY
SUNRISE...H85 TEMPS FALL TO -2C ACROSS WESTERN AREAS TO +2C ACROSS
THE CAPE. WHILE NW WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...EXPECT THEM TO STIR
ENOUGH NOT TOO ALLOW RADIATIONAL COOLING WHERE SKIES BECOME PARTLY
CLOUDY WELL INLAND. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES TO BETWEEN 45 AND 50 ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.
THURSDAY...
SURFACE HIGH RIDGE BUILDS NE INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
DAY WHILE THE H5 TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE DURING THURSDAY. MUCH
COOLER CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE AS COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES
TO SHIFT ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPS WILL ONLY TOP OFF IN THE
50S...CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS BUT A GOOD 15 DEGREES OR SO LOWER
THAN TODAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...
29/00Z GUIDANCE SUITE CONTINUES TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.
THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF ROOM FOR IMPROVEMENT REGARDING THE
DETAILS. THE WEATHER THIS WEEK WILL BE DRIVEN BY A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED...ANOMALOUS PATTERN. THE CORE OF AN OFFSHORE LOW
PRESSURE WAS ABOUT 1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL. THE
CORE OF THE 500 MB LOW WAS NEARLY 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW
NORMAL.
THIS MEANS WE NEED TO KEEP THE GUIDANCE DETAILS IN PERSPECTIVE...
AS MODELS TYPICALLY DO NOT HANDLE EXTREME EVENTS PERFECTLY. IT IS
ENCOURAGING TO SEE THE GUIDANCE CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION THOUGH.
WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR A CONSENSUS MEAN SOLUTION TO SMOOTH OVER
SOME OF THE MINOR DIFFERENCES. WE EXPECT BETTER AGREEMENT OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS NOW THAT THE ENERGY WHICH WILL PRODUCE THIS COASTAL
STORM WILL BE OVER LAND AND BETTER SAMPLED.
THE 29/00 ECMWF STILL REMAINS SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST AND QUICKER
WITH IT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE. THAT SAID...ITS TRACK IS STILL EAST
OF 70W LONGITUDE AS IT PASSES BY OUR REGION. THIS SHOULD MEAN THE
GREATEST EFFECTS SHOULD BE FELT TOWARD THE COASTS.
THE DAILIES...
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...COOLING ALOFT WITH WEAK RIDGING NEAR
THE SURFACE. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE WEATHER DRY INTO AT LEAST THE
FIRST PART OF FRIDAY. AS A SHORTWAVE DIVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES
TROUGH AND TURNS THE UPPER FLOW OVER US MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.
MEANWHILE WEAK RIDGING BUILDS TO OUR NORTH AND TURNS OUR WIND
EAST OR NORTHEAST.
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...THIS WILL BE THE MAIN PERIOD OF RISK FOR
PRECIPITATION DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. STRONG MID
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE ATLANTIC
COAST. UPPER JET FROM CENTRAL CANADA FEEDS AROUND THIS UPPER
TROUGH WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION MOVING OVER THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY. THIS SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF A COASTAL LOW
DEVELOPING. STILL SOME QUESTIONS WITH THE TRACK...WHICH WILL BE A
KEY INGREDIENT TO DETERMINING PRECIPITATION TYPE.
CONFIDENT THAT THERE WILL BE UNSETTLED WEATHER THIS WEEKEND...WITH
GREATEST RISK ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN AND DIMINISHING POPS
FARTHER NORTHWEST. WILL REFLECT THIS WITH LIKELY POPS SOUTHEAST
GRADING TO CHANCE POPS NORTHWEST. LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
PRECIPITATION TYPE. MUCH OF THIS TIME SHOULD BE RAIN. WITH TEMPERATURES
FORECAST TO FALL TO FREEZING OR BELOW SATURDAY NIGHT...THE RESULT
WILL BE SOME SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.
LINGERING CLOUDS BENEATH THE COLD POOL ALOFT...ESPECIALLY ON
MONDAY. OTHERWISE FAIR AND DRY WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL
BY TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. LOW-END VFR/MVFR WITH LINE OF -RA EXPECTED TO SWEEP
THE TERMINALS INTO THIS EVENING AHEAD OF WHICH SW-WINDS PREVAIL
GUSTING AROUND 20-25 KTS ALONG THE S/SE SHORELINE. AN ISOLATED
TSRA IS POSSIBLE OVER SE-TERMINALS...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
PREVAIL IN TAF.
TONIGHT...WINDS BACK W BEHIND THE LINE...DIMINISHING. MAINLY VFR.
LOW-END VFR/MVFR CIGS WITH -RA LINGER OVER S AND E TERMINALS INTO
MIDNIGHT...IMPROVING AFTER AS ACTIVITY PUSHES OFFSHORE.
THURSDAY...VFR. LIGHT W-WINDS. SCT CIGS 4-5 KFT ACROSS INTERIOR
TERMINALS.
THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. LIGHT/VRB WINDS. SKC. SHALLOW PATCHY GROUND
FOG POSSIBLE AT PRONE TERMINALS.
KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND
PRECIPITATION TYPE. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION
OCCURRENCE. CIGS/VSBYS LOWERING TO IFR COASTAL PLAIN AND MVFR
NORTHWEST. COASTAL STORM PASSES BY LATER SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ESPECIALLY KMHT-KORH-KBAF-KBDL.
PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF SUNDAY. NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS WITH GUSTS
ALONG THE COAST 25-35 KNOTS SATURDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY WITH
GUSTS 25 TO 30 KNOTS INLAND AND 30 TO 40 KNOTS ALONG THE COAST.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE ON THE
EASTERN OUTER WATERS AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS AS LOW
LEVEL SW JET MOVES ACROSS TODAY. EXPECT GUSTS UP TO AROUND 25 KT.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO AROUND 6 FT ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. AS THE FRONT PASSES A FEW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE WHICH MAY REDUCE VSBYS. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT
BE RULED OUT.
WINDS SHIFT TO W AND TEND TO DIMINISH TONIGHT...BUT WILL STILL
SEE SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 KT EARLY ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS. SEAS WILL
LINGER AOA 5 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS...BUT SHOULD SLOWLY SUBSIDE.
THURSDAY...LIGHT NW WINDS IN PLACE. LEFTOVER 5 FT SEAS ON THE
OUTER WATERS EARLY SHOULD SUBSIDE.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF
THE WATERS. NORTHWEST WINDS THURSDAY BECOME NORTHEAST FRIDAY BUT
REMAIN BELOW 20 KNOTS. SEAS GENERALLY LESS THAN 5 FEET.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...COASTAL LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE
CAROLINAS AND MOVES UP THE COAST. MODERATE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
EXACT TRACK AND TIMING...WITH THE GENERAL CONSENSUS SOLUTION
STAYING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. AT LEAST
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS SATURDAY 25 TO 35 KNOTS SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST 30 TO
40 KNOTS SUNDAY. A GALE WATCH/GALE WARNING MAY EVENTUALLY BE
NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ231>234-250.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235-
237.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/EVT
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/SIPPRELL
MARINE...BELK/EVT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1113 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
.DISCUSSION...
315 AM CDT
SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT
AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING...THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH WINDS AND CLOUD COVER,
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A STRATOCU DECK SPREADING ACROSS NRN
IL...ASSOCIATED WITH A SECONDARY SURGE OF COOLER AIR AROUND THE SWRN
PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR JAMES BAY. CLEAR
SKIES PREVAILED OVER THE CWA THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING ALLOWING
WINDS TO DIMINISH AS RADIATIONAL COOLING ALLOWED A NOCTURNAL
INVERSION TO FORM...DECOUPLING THE LOWER LEVELS FROM STRONGER WINDS
ALOFT. HOWEVER...AS THE WRAPAROUND CLOUD COVER OVERSPREADS THE
REGION...WINDS WILL PICK UP ONCE AGAIN...AND PER UPSTREAM OBS.
EXPECT THAT THE WEAKER WSWLY WINDS WILL VEER TO MORE WNWLY AND GUST
UP TO ARND 25KT. THE STRONGER WINDS AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD ONLY
COVER LOCATIONS GENERALLY NORTH OF THE ILLINOIS AND KANKAKEE
RIVERS...PER LATEST MODEL RH GUIDANCE AND TIMING OF THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE CLOUD DECK...SO THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA SHOULD REMAIN
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHTER WINDS. TEMPERATURES TODAY
SHOULD BE EVEN LOWER THAN YESTERDAY AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER NWLY
FLOW AT THE SFC AND ALOFT...WITH PERSISTENT COLD ADVECTION. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY REACH INTO THE UPPER 40S GENERALLY
NORTH OF THE I-88 CORRIDOR WITH LOWER 50S TO THE SOUTH.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OUT OF THE NRN PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE WRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.
THIS SHOULD BRING DECREASING CLOUD COVER AS WELL AS DECREASING WINDS
WITH THE DECREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT. BY EARLY THIS EVENING...
WINDS SHOULD BECM NEAR CALM. THE CLEARING SKIES AND CALM WINDS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING...AND WITH DEWPOINTS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER 30S...TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP INTO THE
LOWER 30S AS WELL. EVEN THE CHICAGO URBAN HEAT ISLAND AREA WILL GET
QUITE CHILLY...WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 30S.
KREIN
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
WHILE THE WEEK BEGAN ON A VERY MILD NOTE...WITH TEMPERATURES WELL
INTO THE 70S MON...THE WEEK CLOSES OUT AS NEARLY THE INVERSE OF HOW
IT BEGAN. BROAD MID-LVL TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE BULK OF
THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY REGIONS THUR...WITH A SECONDARY
SHORTWAVE POISED TO SWEEP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST/NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY THUR. GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO
SUGGEST WITH THIS FEATURE THAT A WEAK SFC FEATURE WILL DEVELOP NEAR
NORTHEAST KS...WITH WEAK ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM SOME LGT
PRECIP MAY OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA.
THE SFC LOW THEN DEEPENS ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN LATE THUR NGT/EARLY
FRI...AS A POTENT CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SLIDE SOUTH INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS TIGHTENS
QUICKLY FRI MORNING...AND WILL PRODUCE BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE MIDDAY FRI. ACCOMPANYING THE STRONG CANADIAN
HIGH WILL BE MUCH COLDER AIR...AS TEMPS WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO WARM
BEYOND THE LOW TO MID 40S. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A SLUG OF
850MB TEMPS DROPPING TO -6 TO -10 DEG C MIDDAY FRI/EARLY
AFTN...WHICH MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPS COOLER IN THE UPR
30S/LOW 40S FRI. THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND TEMPS IN THE LOW
40S...WILL LIKELY CREATE WIND CHILL VALUES AROUND 30-33 DEGREES FRI
AFTN. PRECIP AT THIS TIME SHUD REMAIN IN LIQUID FORM FRI...HOWEVER
AS COLDER AIR ADVECTS IN FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST FRI LATE
AFTN/EARLY EVE...WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW. LAKE
EFFECT PRECIP LOOKS FAVORABLE AS WELL...HOWEVER GIVEN THE STRONG
WINDS AND REDUCED RESONANCE TIME...THE ONSET WILL LIKELY START
CELLULAR. THEN AS WINDS DIMINISH LATE FRI NGT A FEW BANDS MAY TRY TO
DEVELOP OVER NORTHWEST IND. TEMPS WILL COOL ENOUGH OVERNIGHT TO
CHANGE ALL PRECIP OVER TO SNOW...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATIONS
AT THIS TIME. TEMPS FRI NIGHT OVER LAND WILL LIKELY DIP INTO THE
MID/UPR 20S ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE LAKE WHERE SKIES SHUD
ERODE EARLIER FRI NGT. FURTHER EAST LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS WILL HELP TO
KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY WARMER.
CONFIDENCE...HIGH.
SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...
THE WEEKEND WILL START UNSEASONABLY COLD WITH A DEEP 500MB TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS...AND A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE
STRETCHING NORTH THROUGH THE PLAINS INTO GREENLAND. BY THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND THE TROUGH BEGINS TO WEAKEN. SFC RIDGE OVER THE
GREAT LAKES SAT WILL SHIFT EAST SUN. GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED THE
DEPARTURE OF THE SFC RIDGE SLIGHTLY...WHICH WILL RESULT IN HOW
QUICKLY THE SECONDARY TROUGH CAN PUSH INTO THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT A TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE SOUTHWEST CONUS
LATE SUN/EARLY MON...WITH A SFC LOW DEVELOPING EARLY NEXT WEEK
ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL LIKELY SET THE STAGE FOR A SLOW
MODERATION IN TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH PRECIP CHANCES
INCREASING MON.
CONFIDENCE...HIGH.
BEACHLER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...
* NONE.
RODRIGUEZ
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
AS THE DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK NEWD THROUGH
CANADA...A SECONDARY SURGE OF COOLER AIR AND A BKN-OVC STRATOCU
DECK HAS OVERSPREAD THE REGION. THE SECONDARY SURGE OF COOLER AIR
AND INCREASED COLD ADVECTION WILL BRING GUSTS TO ARND 25KT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND SPREAD EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...LEADING TO CLEARING
SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS. DURG THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...THE
HIGH WILL BE RIGHT ON TOP OF THE AREA...AND WINDS SHOULD BECOME
LGT/VRBL UNDER CLEAR SKIES... WHICH SHOULD THEN BE THE PREVAILING
CONDITION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
KREIN
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL FORECAST ELEMENTS.
RODRIGUEZ
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
* THURSDAY NIGHT...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA LATE. STRONG NWLY WINDS
DEVELOPING LATE.
* FRIDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA EARLY SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA/SHSN MIX
LATE. STRONG/GUSTY NORTH WINDS.
* SATURDAY...VFR. WX NIL. NORTHEAST WINDS.
* SUNDAY....VFR. WX NIL. SOUTH WINDS.
* MONDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS.
* TUESDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA. SOUTHWEST WINDS.
KREIN
&&
.MARINE...
230 AM CDT
DEEPENING LOW OVER JAMES BAY WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST AWAY
FROM THE GREAT LAKES...AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SLIDES SOUTHEAST FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE
WILL DIMINISH WINDS ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT/THUR MORNING. THEN
A WEAK LOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY THUR AND
QUICKLY SLIDE EAST TOWARDS LAKE MICHIGAN...BEFORE DEEPENING TO A
STRONGER LOW PRESSURE OVER LOWER MICHIGAN THUR NGT/EARLY FRI.
THEN THE TIME PERIOD OF GREATEST CONCERN WILL BE FRI WITH A VERY
POTENT CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE REGION POISED TO SLIDE SOUTH INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS FRI MORNING. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW/HIGH
CONTINUES TO BE SUPPORTIVE OF GENERATING GALES TO 40KT AND POSSIBLY
45KT AROUND 9Z FRI MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
LAKE...AND LIKELY DEVELOP FURTHER SOUTH AROUND DAYBREAK FRI OR
SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK FRI.
GUIDANCE HAS REMAINED CONSISTENT WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN NORTH GALES
40-45KTS DEVELOPING FRI...SO HAVE OPTED TO JUST JUMP TO A GALE
WARNING RATHER THAN A WATCH. THERE IS A SMALL WINDOW MIDDAY FRI
WHERE A FEW STORM FORCE GUSTS COULD OCCUR...BUT THIS IS A LOW
CONFIDENCE FOR ANY DURATION OF STORM FORCE WINDS. WITH THE NORTH
GALES...AND FOR A DECENT DURATION...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WAVES COULD
BE SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH TO PRODUCE THE NEED FOR BEACH HAZARDS ALONG
THE INDIANA SHORELINE FRI AS WELL.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE LAKE LATE FRI NGT AND
STEADILY DIMINISH THE WINDS. WINDS/WAVES WILL FURTHER DIMINISH
SAT/SUN AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE LAKE.
BEACHLER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 3 PM WEDNESDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ740-LMZ741-
LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ870-LMZ872-
LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...7 AM FRIDAY TO 4 AM SATURDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-LMZ567-
LMZ868...4 AM FRIDAY TO 10 PM FRIDAY.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1052 AM CDT Wed Oct 29 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1048 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
A mostly sunny morning for most of Central Illinois is slowly
giving way to developing clouds building in from the north. Cool
conditions behind the front as high pressure builds back into the
region. Temps a little slow to rise over the area and clouds north
of I-74 are going to complicate that a bit more. Have bumped the
highs down a degree or so and adjusted the hourly temps... but a
major update is not anticipated in this quiet weather pattern.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
Surface high pressure will begin to build into the state today, but
not until this afternoon. This morning, however, a large area of
clouds continues to move southeast-east in connection with a mid
level trough that is rotating through the Great Lakes region.
Satellite trends indicate that some of these clouds will advect into
northern parts of the area this morning and then should move east
through the day, leaving the CWA later this afternoon. So, this
morning, looking at partly sunny skies in the north, roughly north
of a Canton to Bloomington line. Satellite also indicates there are
some breaks in the clouds, so believe sunshine this morning should
help some to burn some of it off. CU rule does have some CU
developing, but only in the scattered range. Remainder of the CWA
should be mostly sunny to sunny.
Despite the sunshine today, cooler temperatures, below normal, have
returned to the area. Looking for temperatures in the 50s by this
afternoon, which is really close to both the MET and MAV guidance.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
Northwest upper level flow will persist into the weekend, helping to
keep temperatures below normal, with coldest air from Friday through
this weekend. A hard freeze still looks likely Friday night with
lows in the upper 20s across much of central/se IL and a freeze
watch will likely eventually be needed overnight Friday night into
early Saturday morning.
Weak high pressure around 1022 mb over the central plains to drift
east over IL by overnight and bring fair skies and light winds with
cool lows in the mid to upper 30s, with patchy frost overnight from
Lincoln eastward into IN. Some high clouds increase over western areas
later tonight and get a return se flow to limit frost formation in
western IL tonight. A weak disturbance over the Pacific Northwest,
is expected to dive se across MO Thursday afternoon, and into the TN
river valley by overnight Thu night. This to bring a chance of rain
showers to central IL by Thu afternoon and evening and shifting east
of I-57 overnight Thu night. The 00Z models, especially NAM model,
have increased rain chances and qpf amounts over our CWA with this
weather system. Highs Thu in the middle to upper 50s with mildest
readings sw areas and se IL.
Chances of showers will shift east into IN Friday where strong upper
level trof digs over the eastern states. Models have trended
stronger with this trof and also windier and colder over IL with
more qpf just east of IL over IN/OH/KY. Wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph
on Friday and Friday evening along with highs only in the 40s Friday
will not make for very nice weather for trick or treaters Friday
evening. Stronger Canadian surface high pressure of 1034 mb settling
into the Midwest Friday night, will produce good radiational cooling
conditions overnight Friday night and a likely hard freeze later
Friday night and early Saturday morning. Chilly highs Sat in the mid
to upper 40s. Another freeze likely Sat night with lows in the upper
20s eastern IL and lower 30s central and western IL. Highs Sunday in
the upper 40s and lower 50s.
After a chilly first weekend of November (and a sharp contrast from
the warm weekend the last weekend of October), temperatures will
moderate a bit during the 1st half of next work week with highs
55-60F Monday-Wednesday. Upper level flow becomes more southwesterly
and unsettled over IL early next work week and a frontal boundary to
set up from the southern plains ne into the Ohio river valley. This
likely to bring widespread rain of a half to 1 inch to the region
from Monday into Tuesday with isolated thunderstorms possible south
of I-72. The rain showers should diminish to slight chances on Wed
as frontal boundary weakens as it sags south of IL.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites next 24hrs. An area
of clouds around 4kft continues to advect into the area this
morning, and will effect all sites today. Based on satellite
trends and timing tools, looks like the broken cigs will be at PIA
and BMI around start of TAF forecast. Believe these broken cigs
will last til this evening, when it will become clear for tonight.
Satellite trends and HRRR model cloud forecast looks like the
clouds will thin as they continue to move southeast. Therefore,
will be going with just scattered clouds for the other three TAF
sites, SPI/DEC/CMI; but, will also include a 4hr TEMPO group for
broken cigs during the morning hours. Skies will clear at these
three sites around 00-02z as well, staying clear the remainder of
the TAF period. Winds will be west to northwest today at around
10-15kts, but then become light and variable tonight.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HJS
SHORT TERM...Auten
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Auten
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1054 AM MDT WED OCT 29 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 AM MDT WED OCT 29 2014
EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW LARGE SCALE
TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY WITH AN UPSTREAM RIDGE EXTENDING NORTH ALONG THE
ROCKIES. NW FLOW IS IN PLACE OVER THE CWA BETWEEN THESE FEATURES.
AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO LINGER OVER THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A WEAK LEE TROUGH BEGINNING TO DEVELOP
OVER EASTERN COLORADO.
RIDGING WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST US THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
NW FLOW OVER THE CWA. LEE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN TODAY IN
RESPONSE TO CROSS MOUNTAIN FLOW IN THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...WITH HIGHS
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOWER 70S. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE NW FLOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. WITH A DEEP DRY
AIR MASS IN PLACE PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED. THIS TROUGH WILL
KICK A COLD FRONT SOUTH OVER THE CWA TONIGHT WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO
SEASONAL VALUES IN THE 60S ON THURSDAY.
FLOW ALOFT AMPLIFIES FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS RIDGE SHIFTS EAST
AND A LARGE SCALE TROUGH BEGINS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WESTERN US.
THERE WILL BE A FEW EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WITHIN THE MEAN
FLOW...HOWEVER A VERY DRY AIR MASS AND UNFAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL STORM
TRACKS WILL LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS FRIDAY AND THE
ASSOCIATED BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN THE
50S TO THE CWA (POSSIBLY LOWER IN THE NORTHEAST). THE AMPLIFIED
PATTERN WILL ALSO SUPPORT DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER COLORADO...AND
WITH THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE...TIGHTENING GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT
BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL LIMIT DIURNAL
COOLING.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM MDT WED OCT 29 2014
HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING TO THE EAST AND CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE
AREA THROUGH MID DAY SUNDAY. ON SATURDAY THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT
FROM THE WEST WILL PRODUCE A STIFF SOUTHERLY WIND. THIS COLD FRONT
LOOKS TO BE WEAK AND WILL PASS OVER THE FA STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME INSTABILITY AHEAD
OF THIS FRONT SO WILL ADD A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS...MOSTLY IN
THE NORTHWEST AREA OF THE FA. AFTER THE FRONT PASSES ANOTHER HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGAN TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL CAUSE THE
WINDS TO SHIFT TO WEST-NORTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH AND THE TEMPERATURES
TO DECREASE TO AT OR BELOW FREEZING EARLY ON MONDAY MORNING. AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST STARTS TO MOVE TOWARDS THE EAST MORE OF
THE AREA WILL SEE MORE SEASONAL WEATHER THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1051 AM MDT WED OCT 29 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD FOR BOTH KGLD
AND KMCK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE
WEATHER OVER THE HIGH PLAINS REGION. WINDS WILL SHIFT OVERNIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS...BRINGING GUSTY WINDS FOR
BOTH TERMINALS AND SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...BDW
AVIATION...MK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
106 PM EDT Wed Oct 29 2014
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
...Forecast Update...
Issued at 745 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2014
The back edge of the clouds is about halfway through the region, but
in its wake are a thin layer of low clouds, as evident on satellite
fog product, area webcams, and automated observing stations. Have
add patchy dense fog to the forecast for the next couple of hours,
as the HRRR and NARRE both hint at these clouds sticking around.
Also issued a special weather statement highlighting the impact.
Issued at 620 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2014
Updated the forecast to reduce precip chances over south central KY
as precip is making quick progress eastward out of the area early
this morning. Also, added some patchy fog over portions of
southwest Indiana and west central KY where clearing has begun and
visibilities are dropping at some observation sites.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2014
Early this morning, a shortwave was riding NE along the cold front
just to our south and east. This wave will provide another round of
light rain showers to south central KY and southern portions of the
Bluegrass during the pre-dawn hours. These locations may see up to
an additional tenth of an inch of rainfall early this morning.
This last wave of rainfall should exit the Lake Cumberland region
around or just after sunrise with cooler, drier air pushing in
from the NW throughout the day. Skies will become mostly sunny by
mid morning with high temps topping out in the upper 50s to lower
60s this afternoon.
Tonight sfc high pressure will enter the Ohio Valley with most
models progging it to become centered over our region around
sunrise. This high will provide light winds, subsidence, and good
rad cooling conditions which will result in low temps in the mid to
upper 30s Thurs morning. Temps in this range will make at least
patchy frost formation possible in sheltered/valley locations.
Tonight could be a Frost Advisory candidate especially for southern
Indiana and north central Kentucky. Will need to re-evaluate winds,
dewpts, and temps this afternoon to determine if frost formation
would be widespread enough for a Frost Advisory Thurs morning. Stay
tuned!
After a cold start Thurs morning, temps should warm into the mid 50s
to around 60 Thurs afternoon. Clouds will be on the increase Thurs
afternoon as the next weather system approaches for Thurs night.
.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 420 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2014
...Blast of Cold Air Coming This Weekend with Sub-Freezing
Temperatures Likely by Sunday...
OK, let`s cut to the chase. Friday evening is what you`re really
interested in, since the streets will be full of little goblins and
you`ll either be accompanying them or opening your doors for them.
Either way, it`s not going to be pleasant. Light showers will be
occurring in most areas with temperatures falling through the 40s -
if not into the 30s - before the last doorbell is rung. And some of
the precipitation falling from those showers will likely be in the
form of light snow if you stay out too late. When you add north
winds gusting from 15 to 25 mph, well, let`s just say that it`s
going to be cold.
The extended period will bring us a taste of the season to come as a
progressive upper level weather pattern keeps forecasters on their
toes. We start out with a series of upper disturbances diving south
out of Canada, deepening a trof over the eastern U.S. and dragging
the colder air into the Ohio Valley. Showers will first move into
the region overnight Thursday, then increase in coverage during the
day Friday along with the push of cold air coming in rapidly on
north winds as a tight surface gradient sets up between Low pressure
over the Appalachians and High pressure over the upper Mississippi
Valley. This leads into the aforementioned blustery weather Friday
night.
Wind chills Friday night will fall into the 20s, but with the gusty
winds, actual air temperatures should not fall below freezing
Saturday morning. The same won`t be true for Sunday morning though,
as the surface High moves in from the upper Mississippi Valley,
clearing out skies and dropping winds off to allow for peak
radiational cooling by Sunday morning. Temperature by dawn on the
day we move the clocks back an hour should be in the upper 20s
across the entire area, effectively putting an end to the outdoor
growing season.
A gradual warmup will occur Sunday into Monday as the High drifts
slowly east and return southerly flow sets up. This will set the
stage for the next chance for showers from Monday night into
Tuesday. These will stay in the form of rain, rather than snow,
though, as daytime temperatures moderate back into the upper 60s
Monday and Tuesday - up considerably from Saturday`s max
temperatures in the 40s.
&&
.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 103 PM EDT Wed Oct 29 2014
VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period, although there
could be some light fog in prone locations towards Thursday
morning. For the remainder of this afternoon, expect westerly winds
to turn more WNW and continue around 10 knots with gusts upwards of
15 knots at times. Clouds (around FL035) from the northwest will
attempt to push into KSDF and KLEX this evening, but will likely
struggle to do so as they mix out late this afternoon.
Some guidance is trying to hint at more fog development overnight at
KLEX and KBWG. However, drier air is quickly working in and even
guidance suggesting fog has morning dewpoint depression upwards of 3
degrees. Therefore, will just hint at fog development with a 6SM
group at KLEX and KBWG, but leave any restrictions out for now.
Otherwise, Thursday will just feature some increasing high clouds,
but winds will remain light with VFR conditions continuing.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Update.........RJS/AMS
Short Term.....AMS
Long Term......JBS
Aviation.......KJD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
638 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION BY THIS EVENING. COOLER HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND...BRINGING EVEN COLDER AIR THE CHANCE OF SOME RAIN AND
SNOW. WHILE AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS TO PASS MOSTLY OUT TO SEA...SOME
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 630 PM UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED THE
FORECAST A BIT THIS EVENING MAINLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE TIMING OF THE
BAND OF RAIN MOVING ACROSS THE CWA. THE HRRR HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON IT
AND HAVE USED IT/S TIMING. THE BAND SHOULD SPEED UP A BIT AND EXIT
THE COAST PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
PREVIOUSLY...
SFC COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOOKS TO STRETCH SW ALONG THE ST LAWRENCE
VLY AND THEN INTO CENTRAL NY. SHOULD BEGIN TO TRACK MORE QUICKLY
TO THE E OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND THE BAND OF SHOWERS WILL
SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE CWA THRU LATE THIS AFT AND DURING EARLY
EVENING. THE SHRA SHOULD CLEAR ALL BUT THE MID-COAST BY7 AROUND
00Z...AND SHOULD EXIT THERE BY 02Z.
WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR OUT ANY LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG LINGERING ALONG THE COAST...AND SKIES SHOULD AT LEAST
PARTIALLY CLEAR OUT IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS....WITH CLOUDS LINGERING
IN THE MTNS. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AFTER A WEAK 500MB RIDGE PASSE4S THRU THE CWA EARLY AM...WHICH
COULD PRODUCE A CLUSTER OF MID-HIGH EARLY...SHOULD SEE SFC HIGH
BUILD IN FROM THE W AS WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPS ALOFT. WILL SEE
UPSLOPE CLOUDS AND DOWNSLOPE CLEARING DURING THE DAY....WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. WINDS DROP OFF FOR A MAINLY CLEAR AND
CALM THU NIGHT...SO TEMPS WILL GENERALLY FALL INTO THE 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAIN FOCUS OF THE EXTENDED REVOLVES AROUND POWERFUL LOW PRES
SYSTEM THAT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND.
A POTENT S/WV WILL CARVE OUT A SEASONABLY STRONG TROF OVER THE ERN
CONUS. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT WITH DIGGING A -3 TO -5 SD
CLOSED LOW THRU THE CAROLINAS SAT. THIS EXITS THE COAST AND FUELS
A POWERFUL LOW PRES OVER THE WATERS THAT RACES NEWD. THE FLY IN
THE OINTMENT IS A LEAD S/WV THAT IS FORECAST TO TRIGGER
CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE COAST PRIOR TO THE MAIN UPPER TROF ARRIVING
OVER EAST COAST. THE RESULT IS A PUSH EWD OF THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE...WHICH KEEPS THE SECOND SFC LOW FARTHER OUT TO SEA FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE CLOSED NATURE OF THE UPPER
LEVELS THIS SFC LOW WILL TRY AND TUCK BACK TOWARDS THE COAST WITH
TIME...SO COASTAL ME IS NOT LEFT HIGH AND DRY. INCREASING
LONGITUDE WILL MEAN INCREASING UNCERTAINTY REGARDING QPF IN THIS
SET UP. PARTS OF NH COULD SEE VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
PCPN...WHILE THE PENOBSCOT BAY REGION SEES CLOSE TO AN INCH OF
LIQUID EQUIVALENT.
ATTM A MULTI MODEL BLEND SEEMS PRUDENT...THOUGH THE INDIVIDUAL
PIECES OF GUIDANCE ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH A NEAR MISS. THE
RESULTING QPF FORECAST IS AROUND 0.10 INCHES FOR THE CT RIVER
VALLEY...INCREASING TO NEAR A HALF INCH AROUND KPWM TO
JACKMAN...AND FINALLY 0.75 INCHES NEAR KRKD. EXAMINING TEMP
PROFILES OF THE VARIOUS MODELS DOES GIVE SUPPORT TO A WIDESPREAD
CHUNK OF THE FORECAST AREA SEEING THE FIRST ACCUMULATING SNFL OF
THE SEASON. THE RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRES AND LEAD S/WV HEADING
OUT TO SEA WILL HELP TO MITIGATE WAA BRINGING IN ABOVE FREEZING
AIR ALOFT. MODEL FORECASTS DO WARM SOME ALOFT...BUT AS 925 MB
TEMPS FALL TO NEAR -4 C ALONG THE COAST...THAT SHOULD STAY ALL OR
MOSTLY SNOW...ESPECIALLY HEADING INTO SAT NIGHT AND SUN. BASED ON
THAT FORECAST ALOFT AND EXPECTED HOURLY TEMPS...THE GRIDS REFLECT
3-5 INCHES OF SNFL POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL ME AND ESPECIALLY THE
MIDCOAST. CLOSER TO KPWM LESS THAN AN INCH IS POSSIBLE...WITH A
DUSTING TO JUST A FEW FLAKES ELSEWHERE.
ALSO OF NOTE ARE THE WIND PROFILES FROM THE VARIOUS FORECAST
MODELS. ATTM THE GFS AND CMC ARE THE MOST BULLISH GUIDANCE. BASED
ON THE WIND ALOFT AND FORECAST MIXED LAYER...GUSTS GREATER THAN 40
KTS WOULD BE POSSIBLE. OVER THE OUTER WATERS EVEN STRONGER GUSTS
IN THE 50-60 KT RANGE WOULD BE POSSIBLE. THE ECMWF IS TEMPERED
SLIGHTLY...WITH OVERLAND GUSTS MORE IN THE 35-40 KT RANGE. GIVEN
THE DIFFICULTY IN REACHING HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA IN MOST
EVENTS THE ECMWF WAS WEIGHTED SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN THE BLEND. EVEN
SO THE FORECAST REFLECTS 35-45 MPH GUSTS ALONG THE COAST...WITH
NEAR STORM FORCE OVER THE WATERS.
THE MAIN POINT IS THAT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM
TO AFFECT AT LEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL ROOM FOR THE FORECAST TO CHANGE IN EITHER
DIRECTION...INCLUDING FARTHER OUT TO SEA AND LESS PCPN.
BEYOND THE WEEKEND...A MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WAS THE PREFERRED
FORECAST METHOD. HIGH PRES AND RIDING ALOFT GENERALLY IN CONTROL
THRU MIDWEEK. TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND NICELY FROM THE COLDER THAN
NORMAL WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PCPN WILL BE THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT
ONCE A COLD FRONT PASSES THRU AROUND 00Z. COULD SEE SOME FOG
ADVECT IN FROM THE RIVER AT KLEB. VFR THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THU
NIGHT.
LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS START THE PERIOD FRI. LOW PRES GATHERS
STRENGTH S OF THE AREA ON SAT...WITH CLOUDS SPREADING NWD. MVFR
AND EVENTUALLY IFR CIGS/VSBYS MOVE INTO THE AREA. SNFL IS POSSIBLE
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA LATE SAT INTO SUN. ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR
UNLIKELY OUTSIDE OF CENTRAL ME...BUT IFR VSBYS WOULD BE POSSIBLE
IN ANY SNOW. GRADUALLY IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED LATE SUN THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...ALTHOUGH WILL SEE A BRIEF SURGE IN W-NW WINDS
OVERNIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT...WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BLO SCA
LVLS THRU THU NIGHT.
LONG TERM...A DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM IS GOING TO GATHER STRENGTH
INTO THE WEEKEND. ATTM A SEASONABLY STRONG LOW PRES IS FORECAST TO
PASS THRU OR NEAR THE GULF OF ME. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY
ATTM...BUT GALES APPEAR LIKELY WITH STORM FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE.
SEAS WILL ALSO CLIMB TO NEAR 20 FT IN THIS SCENARIO. WINDS AND
SEAS THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRES
TAKES CONTROL OF THE WATERS.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM UPDATE...MLE
LONG TERM...LEGRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
620 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A SECOND COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT WITH SOME SHOWERS
THROUGH MIDNIGHT. RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER THEN SETS UP FOR
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION. A
COASTAL STORM WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE REGION BY LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
620 PM UPDATE...SHOWERS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ARE LIFTING
NE ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS FOR THE
MOST PART LIGHT WITH QPF AMOUNTS OF LESS THAN 0.10" DURING THE
PAST FEW HOURS...AND MOSTLY CONFINED TO PARTS OF
PISCATAQUIS...PENOBSCOT...AND SOUTHERN AROOSTOOK COUNTIES. AREAS
OF FOG MAINLY ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE...WITH THE STRATUS DECK
ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE GROUND AT FRENCHVILLE. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS
TO THE ONGOING FORECAST BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND
OBSERVATIONS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A SECOND COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
W/ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS. FOG STILL HOLDING ON ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY FROM CARIBOU NORTHWARD AND
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN W/THE WARM AIR ALOFT OVER THE
COOLER AIR IN THE BLYR. FURTHER S, JUST PATCHY FOG ATTM. RADAR
SHOWED A LINE OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
BOUNDARY. THE NAM12 AND RAP WERE DOING WELL W/PLACEMENT OF THE
SHOWERS AND DECIDED TO FOLLOW THIS BLEND INTO THE EVENING W/THE
SECOND PUSH OF SHOWERS. THE RAIN WILL PUSH OFFSHORE BY MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO NO MORE THAN 0.25" AND
THIS WILL BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST
SECTIONS. THE BLYR WILL MIX OUT LATER TONIGHT AS A WNW FLOW SETS
UP BEHIND THE FRONT W/SOME PARTIAL CLEARING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
DOWNEAST. BEFORE THEN, FOG COULD SET UP FOR A WHILE AND BECOME
DENSE BEFORE THE BLYR MIXES OUT. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED BY
THE EVENING CREW.
THE AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FRONT IS NOT THAT COLD, SO THE OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL NOT DROP TOO FAR BELOW 40 ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MAINE,
WHILE SOUTH/DOWNEAST WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S. TEMPERATURES
ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE NORMAL RANGE AS COOLER AIR FILTERS INTO
THE REGION. STILL SOME PRETTY GOOD RH FROM 925-850MBS ON THURSDAY
TO ALLOW FOR CLOUDS DURING THE DAY LIMITING THE SUNSHINE ACROSS
THE NORTH AND WEST. DOWNSLOPE WILL AID IN MORE SUN FOR THE
DOWNEAST AND COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A RIDGE AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD IN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS FILTERING IN COOLER AIR. EXPECT MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES DOWNEAST WITH SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE
NORTH STREAMING NORTH AND EAST AHEAD OF DEVELOPING WAVE OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. EXPECT LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S
ACROSS THE NORTH TO THE MID AND UPPER 30S DOWNEAST.
FRIDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE QUIET AS A COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM
BEGINS TO ORGANIZE OFF TO THE SOUTH. SKIES LOOK TO BE MAINLY
CLOUDY IN THE NORTH WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS DOWNEAST. HIGHS
WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S NORTH TO THE UPPER 40S TO
AROUND 50 DOWNEAST.
THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE COMPLEX FOR FRIDAY NIGHT HEADING INTO
SATURDAY. A STRONG 500 MB SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTH AND EAST FROM
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE CAROLINA COAST DURING THIS TIME
WITH LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE DEVELOPING OFF THE EAST COAST.
FORECAST MODELS ARE STILL STRUGGLING WITH THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF
THIS SYSTEM IN TERMS OF TRACK AND TIMING OF THE PRECIP ONSET.
EXPECT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
EITHER LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. IF THIS
PRECIP COMES IN EARLY ENOUGH, IT MAY FALL AS A LITTLE SNOW AWAY
FROM THE COAST BEFORE GOING TO RAIN SATURDAY AS TEMPERATURES
MODERATE. AS THE LOW DRAWS CLOSER, PRECIP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
OF BECOMING HEAVIER AND STEADIER BY LATE DAY SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT OVER EASTERN AREAS DEPENDING ON THE LOW`S TRACK...
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
SATURDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE NORTHEAST TO NOVA SCOTIA DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY BASE ON OPERATIONAL GFS AND MOST GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.
OPERATIONAL ECMWF BRINGS THIS SYSTEM CLOSER TO THE MAINE COAST.
STILL TO SOON TO MAKE CALL ON EXACT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. EXPECT
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW AND COLDER AIR MASS MONDAY AS INTENSIFING
LOW MOVES TO THE NORTH. RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE STATE
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST WEDESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE INTO THE EVENING W/THE
THE NORTHERN TERMINALS HOLDING ON TO IFR WHILE KBGR AND KBHB WILL
SEE CONDITIONS GO TO MVFR. MVFR CONDITION EXPECTED TO GO TO VFR
LATER TONIGHT OR MORE LIKELY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS WNW WINDS
TAKE HOLD. VFR FOR KBGR AND BHB ON THURSDAY WHILE THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS COULD SEE TEMPO MVFR ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE DAY.
SHORT TO LONG TERM:
MAINLY VFR FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. CONDITIONS
DETERIORATING TO AT LEAST MVFR ARE LIKELY SATURDAY AS RAIN OR A
RAIN/SNOW MIX MOVES IN....IFR CONDITIONS ALSO EXPECTED SUNDAY. VFR
CODNITIONS MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. WIND GUSTS
COULD HIT 20 KTS LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY ON THE BACKSIDE ON
THE FRONT AND COOLER AIR MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS. SEAS WILL
REMAIN 3-4 FT INTO THURSDAY.
SHORT TO LONG TERM:
NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. AS A COASTAL LOW
DEVELOPS AND MOVES NORTH SATURDAY WINDS AND WAVES WILL INCREASE
WITH HIGH END SCA TO EVEN GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY LATE
SATURDAY. HOWEVER IT SHOULD BE NOTED THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE STORM WHICH WILL DETERMINE
THE MAGNITUDE OF THE WINDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS REACHED...
&&
.CLIMATE...CHECK OUT THE LATEST PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT ON
HALLOWEEN WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE YEARS AT CARIBOU AND BANGOR. THE
STATEMENT IS AVAILABLE AT NOUS41 KCAR OR AT PWMPNSCAR.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...CB/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...FITZSIMMONS
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...CB/HEWITT/FITZSIMMONS
MARINE...CB/HEWITT/FITZSIMMONS
CLIMATE...CB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
314 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A SECOND COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT WITH SOME SHOWERS
THROUGH MIDNIGHT. RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER THEN SETS UP FOR
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION. A
COASTAL STORM WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE REGION BY LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SECOND COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
W/ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS. FOG STILL HOLDING ON ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY FROM CARIBOU NORTHWARD AND
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN W/THE WARM AIR ALOFT OVER THE
COOLER AIR IN THE BLYR. FURTHER S, JUST PATCHY FOG ATTM. RADAR
SHOWED A LINE OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
BOUNDARY. THE NAM12 AND RAP WERE DOING WELL W/PLACEMENT OF THE
SHOWERS AND DECIDED TO FOLLOW THIS BLEND INTO THE EVENING W/THE
SECOND PUSH OF SHOWERS. THE RAIN WILL PUSH OFFSHORE BY MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO NO MORE THAN 0.25" AND
THIS WILL BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST
SECTIONS. THE BLYR WILL MIX OUT LATER TONIGHT AS A WNW FLOW SETS
UP BEHIND THE FRONT W/SOME PARTIAL CLEARING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
DOWNEAST. BEFORE THEN, FOG COULD SET UP FOR A WHILE AND BECOME
DENSE BEFORE THE BLYR MIXES OUT. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED BY
THE EVENING CREW.
THE AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FRONT IS NOT THAT COLD, SO THE OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL NOT DROP TOO FAR BELOW 40 ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MAINE,
WHILE SOUTH/DOWNEAST WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S. TEMPERATURES
ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE NORMAL RANGE AS COOLER AIR FILTERS INTO
THE REGION. STILL SOME PRETTY GOOD RH FROM 925-850MBS ON THURSDAY
TO ALLOW FOR CLOUDS DURING THE DAY LIMITING THE SUNSHINE ACROSS
THE NORTH AND WEST. DOWNSLOPE WILL AID IN MORE SUN FOR THE
DOWNEAST AND COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A RIDGE AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD IN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS FILTERING IN COOLER AIR. EXPECT MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES DOWNEAST WITH SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE
NORTH STREAMING NORTH AND EAST AHEAD OF DEVELOPING WAVE OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. EXPECT LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S
ACROSS THE NORTH TO THE MID AND UPPER 30S DOWNEAST.
FRIDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE QUIET AS A COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM
BEGINS TO ORGANIZE OFF TO THE SOUTH. SKIES LOOK TO BE MAINLY
CLOUDY IN THE NORTH WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS DOWNEAST. HIGHS
WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S NORTH TO THE UPPER 40S TO
AROUND 50 DOWNEAST.
THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE COMPLEX FOR FRIDAY NIGHT HEADING INTO
SATURDAY. A STRONG 500 MB SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTH AND EAST FROM
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE CAROLINA COAST DURING THIS TIME
WITH LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE DEVELOPING OFF THE EAST COAST.
FORECAST MODELS ARE STILL STRUGGLING WITH THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF
THIS SYSTEM IN TERMS OF TRACK AND TIMING OF THE PRECIP ONSET.
EXPECT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
EITHER LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. IF THIS
PRECIP COMES IN EARLY ENOUGH, IT MAY FALL AS A LITTLE SNOW AWAY
FROM THE COAST BEFORE GOING TO RAIN SATURDAY AS TEMPERATURES
MODERATE. AS THE LOW DRAWS CLOSER, PRECIP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
OF BECOMING HEAVIER AND STEADIER BY LATE DAY SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT OVER EASTERN AREAS DEPENDING ON THE LOW`S TRACK...
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
SATURDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE NORTHEAST TO NOVA SCOTIA DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY BASE ON OPERATIONAL GFS AND MOST GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.
OPERATIONAL ECMWF BRINGS THIS SYSTEM CLOSER TO THE MAINE COAST.
STILL TO SOON TO MAKE CALL ON EXACT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. EXPECT
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW AND COLDER AIR MASS MONDAY AS INTENSIFING
LOW MOVES TO THE NORTH. RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE STATE
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST WEDESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE INTO THE EVENING W/THE
THE NORTHERN TERMINALS HOLDING ON TO IFR WHILE KBGR AND KBHB WILL
SEE CONDITIONS GO TO MVFR. MVFR CONDITION EXPECTED TO GO TO VFR
LATER TONIGHT OR MORE LIKELY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS WNW WINDS
TAKE HOLD. VFR FOR KBGR AND BHB ON THURSDAY WHILE THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS COULD SEE TEMPO MVFR ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE DAY.
SHORT TO LONG TERM:
MAINLY VFR FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. CONDITIONS
DETERIORATING TO AT LEAST MVFR ARE LIKELY SATURDAY AS RAIN OR A
RAIN/SNOW MIX MOVES IN....IFR CONDITIONS ALSO EXPECTED SUNDAY. VFR
CODNITIONS MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. WIND GUSTS
COULD HIT 20 KTS LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY ON THE BACKSIDE ON
THE FRONT AND COOLER AIR MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS. SEAS WILL
REMAIN 3-4 FT INTO THURSDAY.
SHORT TO LONG TERM:
NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. AS A COASTAL LOW
DEVELOPS AND MOVES NORTH SATURDAY WINDS AND WAVES WILL INCREASE
WITH HIGH END SCA TO EVEN GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY LATE
SATURDAY. HOWEVER IT SHOULD BE NOTED THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE STORM WHICH WILL DETERMINE
THE MAGNITUDE OF THE WINDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS REACHED...
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...FITZSIMMONS
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...HEWITT/FITZSIMMONS
MARINE...HEWITT/FITZSIMMONS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
308 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
STRATUS HAS BEEN VERY HESITANT TO BUDGE TODAY AS MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW
HAS BEEN SLOW TO GIVE WAY TO A SFC RIDGE THAT WAS SLOWLY WORKING
ACROSS WRN MN. THIS HAS KEPT MUCH OF CENTRAL MN IN THE UPPER 30S
TODAY...WHICH IS A GOOD 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM IS ALREADY SCREAMING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
TODAY. HAVE NOT CHANGED MUCH WITH THE FORECAST TO WHAT WE HAD IN
LAST NIGHT AS TIMING STILL LOOKS GOOD...AND REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS
CERTAINLY DO NOT INSTILL MUCH CONFIDENCE IN GOING WITH ANYTHING
HIGHER THAN A 40 POP TONIGHT. STILL THE BIG ISSUE FOR PRECIP TONIGHT
IS THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR THAT IS MOVING IN AHEAD OF THIS WAVE...AS
SEEN IN THE 29.12 SOUNDING FROM ABERDEEN THIS MORNING. MOST HI-RES
AND DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT SHOW SOME LIGHT PRECIP MOVING INTO WRN MN
BETWEEN 3Z AND 6Z TONIGHT...BUT FALLING APART AS IT MOVES EAST AS
THE PRIMARY PV ANOMALY WITH THIS WAVE DIVES SOUTH INTO IOWA.
WHAT THIS WAVE WILL DO IS SPREAD PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER BETWEEN 6K
AND 10K FEET BACK ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THAT COMBINED WITH LIGHT
SRLY WINDS OUT AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW/TROUGH WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURE
DROPS TONIGHT TO BASICALLY LESS THAN 10 DEGREES FROM TEMPERATURES
CURRENTLY OUT THERE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS MEANS WE WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH TO MIX A FEW SNOWFLAKES IN WITH ANY RAIN THAT CAN MAKE TO THE
GROUND NORTH OF I-94 TONIGHT...BUT WITH MINIMAL QPF EXPECTED...WE
WILL NOT SEE ANY ACCUMULATIONS EITHER.
FOR TOMORROW...THE WARMEST CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
MORNING...AS THE AFTERNOON WILL BE MARKED BY THE DEVELOPMENT OF
BREEZY NW WINDS AND CAA. THOUGH THE STRONGEST CAA LOOKS TO HOLD OFF
UNTIL THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. STILL...THE CAA COMBINED
WITH ANOTHER BATCH OF STRATUS WILL HELP HOLD TEMPERATURES STEADY OR
EVEN ALLOW THEM TO DROP A DEGREES OR TWO DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS
CENTRAL AND WRN MN.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
LONG RANGE TRENDS CONTINUE ON A COLD NOTE IN THE WAKE OF THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES TROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. COULD SEE A SMALL
CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER A PORTION OF THE WISCONSIN CWA
INTO OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES/CRITICAL THICKNESS VALUES DROP OFF.
THE COLD SURFACE HIGH FOLLOWS WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES
WITH FRIDAY LOOKING TO BE THE COLDEST FOR THE NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE
CWA.
SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP SATURDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
CWA. SOME GUSTS OVER 30 MPH OVER THIS REGION OF THE STATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN UP INTO THE NIGHT AS THE NEXT COLD
FRONT/SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE DAKOTAS INTO SUNDAY. WARMER AIR
WILL MOVE OUT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WITH SOME 50S EXPECTED SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH
THE 12Z ECMWF PARTIALLY SPLIT AND TAKING MUCH OF THE MOISTURE
SOUTH AND EAST. WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT AS BOTH MODELS SUGGEST A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH.
DOESNT APPEAR TO BE SIGNIFICANT AT THE MOMENT...BUT ENOUGH COLD MAY
MAY WORK IN FOR A CHANCE OF MIXED/CHANGE OVER TO SOME WET
SNOW...MAINLY INTO WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN MONDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR LONG TERM MODEL TRENDS ON THE OVERALL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
STRATUS HAS BEEN STUBBORN TO DEPART WITH MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW STILL
IN PLACE. HOWEVER...AS THE RIDGE AXIS STARTS TO NUDGE EAST ACROSS
SW MN...WE HAVE STARTED TO SEE THE WRN EDGE OF THE CLOUDS SHIELD
BREAKUP OVER THE LAST HOUR. THE HRRR HAS HAD A GOOD HANDEL ON THE
CLOUDS THIS MORNING...SO FOLLOWED IT TO TREND IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR
FROM SW TO NE THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS OVER THE
LAST HOUR...THE HRRR...ALONG WITH THESE TAFS ARE TOO SLOW IN
CLEARING OUT THESE CLOUDS IF ANYTHING. NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT US IS
ALREADY DIVING SE INTO NW NODAK. NAM AND HI-RES MODELS SHOW
SHOWERS PUSHING INTO WRN MN...BUT DRYING UP PRETTY QUICK AFTER
THAT...SO REMOVED VCSH MENTION FROM ALL BUT AXN. WINDS WILL BE
PRETTY LIGHT OVERNIGHT AS THE SFC LOW WORKS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH
BLUSTERY NW WINDS DEVELOPING THU MORNING OUT WEST IN ITS WAKE.
BESIDE THE RETURN OF NW WINDS...THE NAM/GFS/SREF ALL SHOW A BAND
OF MVFR CIGS WORKING IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM AS WELL...THOUGH WE
SHOULD NOT SEE MVFR CIGS ARRIVE IN CENTRAL MN UNTIL LATE THU
MORNING.
KMSP...IF ANYTHING...IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY BE TOO LATE IN THE
TAF...THOUGH STILL DO NOT EXPECT THAT TO HAPPEN UNTIL 20Z AT THE
EARLIEST. WE MAY SEE A SPRINKLE OR TWO IN THE MORNING AS THE SFC
LOW WORKS ACROSS THE FIELD...THOUGH COVERAGE LOOKS PRETTY
SPARSE...SO WENT WITH THE DRY TAF. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN MVFR CIGS
RETURNING ABOUT 24 HOURS FROM NOW. WE WILL LIKELY SEE THEM CLEAR
OUT BEFORE THE END OF THE TAF...ALONG WITH NW WINDS BECOMING
STRONGER AND GUSTING...BUT THIS FAR OUT...DID NOT GET TOO QUITE
WITH HOURS 27-30 OF THE TAF.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WINDS N 10-15 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS SE 10-15 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WINDS SSE 10-15 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...MPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1254 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 241 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
MAIN CONCERN IS TEMPS TODAY AS ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER/LATE OCTOBER
SUN ANGLE MAY HOLD BACK TEMPS FROM RISING TOO MUCH UNTIL MID/LATE
AFTN. CAA WILL REMAIN FOR MOST OF THE MORNING...SO TEMPS MAY
ACTUALLY HOLD OR FALL A DEGREE OR TWO BEFORE STARTING TO RISE BY
LATE MORNING. LOW TO MID 40S SEEM REASONABLE BASED ON THE
ANTICIPATED CLOUDS HOLDING ON...AND TEMPS STILL IN THE 30S.
A FAST MOVING SHRTWV THAT WAS NOTED ACROSS NORTHERN WASHINGTON STATE
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN LATER THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT WITH A CHC OF RAIN/SNOW. INITIALLY...DRY AIR MASS
WILL CONTROL THE WEATHER DURING THE LATE AFTN/EVENING TIME FRAME.
THIS INITIAL DRY AIR MASS MAY ACTUALLY HELP WITH A MIXTURE OF
SNOW/RAIN BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL RAIN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS.
MAX WET BULB TEMPS /1 KM LAYER/ DURING THE EVENING ACROSS
EASTERN MN/WESTERN WI ARE COOL ENOUGH THAT IF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS
EARLIER...THE MAIN TYPE COULD BE SNOW. HOWEVER...THIS WILL QUICKLY
CHANGE BACK TO RAIN AS THE THERMAL PROFILE WARMS AS THE SHRTWV
QUICKLY MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. WRF MODELS SIMULATED
PRECIPITATION TYPE DOES HAVE A SIMILAR SCENARIO WITH SOME MIXTURE OF
RAIN/SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL/EC MN/WC WI DURING THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION.
ALTHOUGH PRECIPITATION IS VERY LIKELY ACROSS MPX CWA LATE
TONIGHT...INITIAL DRY MASS MAY PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT AMTS. A
GENERAL FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF LIQUID WATER IS POSSIBLE WITH
MOSTLY TRACE AMTS ACROSS MPX CWA. WILL CONTINUE 20/30/40% POPS AS
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL BE LOW.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND HIGHLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN TAKES SHAPE IN
THE EXTENDED. THIS WILL LEAD TO A COUPLE PROTOTYPICAL FALL
TEMPERATURE SWINGS AND AT LEAST A COUPLE BLUSTERY DAYS.
OVERALL...STILL A DRY PATTERN WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR PRECIP UNTIL
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND EVEN THAT DOESN`T LOOK OVERLY IMPRESSIVE FOR
RAIN.
THE PRECIP EVENT MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION WILL
QUICKLY MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY MORNING. THERE IS
REALLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT AMONGST THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF IN THE RAPID
BUILDING OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES DURING THE
DAY ON THURSDAY. THIS HIGH WILL QUICKLY DROP SOUTH INTO THE
DAKOTAS THURSDAY NIGHT AND BRING AN IMPRESSIVE SURGE OF COLD AIR
AND STRONG WINDS WITH IT. MOMENTUM TRANSFER APPROXIMATIONS FROM THE
NAM/GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PEAK WIND GUSTS UP NEAR
30-35KTS IN WESTERN MN AND 25-30KTS ACROSS THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. THE AIR MASS
THAT ARRIVES ON FRIDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST OF THE SEASON THUS FAR
WITH MOST OF THE GUIDANCE FORECASTING 850MB TEMPS BETWEEN -7C AND
-11C BY FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THE LAST COLD
OUTBREAK OCCURRED DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF OCTOBER WHEN MANY
LOCATIONS SAW 40S FOR HIGHS...THAT WAS WITH 850MB TEMPS OF ABOUT
-4C. IN ADDITION TO THE COLDER AIR MASS...WE ARE NOW APPROACHING
NOVEMBER AND HAVE LOST BETWEEN 60-90 MINUTES OF DAYLIGHT SINCE
THAT EARLY OCTOBER COLD SNAP...NOT TO MENTION WE ALSO HAVE A LOWER
SUN ANGLE. A LOT OF THE FORECAST AREA MIGHT NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE
30S FOR HIGHS ON FRIDAY...WHICH WOULD MAKE IT THE COLDEST
HALLOWEEN SINCE 2006 WHEN THERE WAS A HIGH OF 36 IN THE TWIN
CITIES...A HIGH OF 33 IN ST. CLOUD...AND 38 IN EAU CLAIRE. A
BLUSTERY NORTH FLOW WILL DROP WIND CHILLS INTO THE 20S DURING
FRIDAY EVENING.
THE WEEKEND WILL BRING WARMER TEMPS THAN FRIDAY BUT STILL REMAIN
COOL OVERALL. THE COLDEST AIR WILL SLIDE EAST BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
MN/WI WILL FIND ITSELF UNDER TRANSIENT RIDGING THIS WEEKEND IN
BETWEEN A DEEP TROUGH OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST AND AN APPROACHING
TROUGH FROM THE ROCKIES. THIS TROUGH BREAKS OFF A CUT-OFF LOW OVER
THE BAJA PENINSULA AND SWINGS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE MODEL TIMING AND LOCATION ON THIS TROUGH IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT FOR A 150-HR FORECAST. THIS TROUGH IS THE REASON FOR
THE CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK - DOESN`T APPEAR
TO BE A MAJOR PRECIP EVENT AT THIS POINT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
STRATUS HAS BEEN STUBBORN TO DEPART WITH MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW STILL
IN PLACE. HOWEVER...AS THE RIDGE AXIS STARTS TO NUDGE EAST ACROSS
SW MN...WE HAVE STARTED TO SEE THE WRN EDGE OF THE CLOUDS SHIELD
BREAKUP OVER THE LAST HOUR. THE HRRR HAS HAD A GOOD HANDEL ON THE
CLOUDS THIS MORNING...SO FOLLOWED IT TO TREND IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR
FROM SW TO NE THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS OVER THE
LAST HOUR...THE HRRR...ALONG WITH THESE TAFS ARE TOO SLOW IN
CLEARING OUT THESE CLOUDS IF ANYTHING. NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT US IS
ALREADY DIVING SE INTO NW NODAK. NAM AND HI-RES MODELS SHOW
SHOWERS PUSHING INTO WRN MN...BUT DRYING UP PRETTY QUICK AFTER
THAT...SO REMOVED VCSH MENTION FROM ALL BUT AXN. WINDS WILL BE
PRETTY LIGHT OVERNIGHT AS THE SFC LOW WORKS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH
BLUSTERY NW WINDS DEVELOPING THU MORNING OUT WEST IN ITS WAKE.
BESIDE THE RETURN OF NW WINDS...THE NAM/GFS/SREF ALL SHOW A BAND
OF MVFR CIGS WORKING IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM AS WELL...THOUGH WE
SHOULD NOT SEE MVFR CIGS ARRIVE IN CENTRAL MN UNTIL LATE THU
MORNING.
KMSP...IF ANYTHING...IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY BE TOO LATE IN THE
TAF...THOUGH STILL DO NOT EXPECT THAT TO HAPPEN UNTIL 20Z AT THE
EARLIEST. WE MAY SEE A SPRINKLE OR TWO IN THE MORNING AS THE SFC
LOW WORKS ACROSS THE FIELD...THOUGH COVERAGE LOOKS PRETTY
SPARSE...SO WENT WITH THE DRY TAF. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN MVFR CIGS
RETURNING ABOUT 24 HOURS FROM NOW. WE WILL LIKELY SEE THEM CLEAR
OUT BEFORE THE END OF THE TAF...ALONG WITH NW WINDS BECOMING
STRONGER AND GUSTING...BUT THIS FAR OUT...DID NOT GET TOO QUITE
WITH HOURS 27-30 OF THE TAF.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WINDS N 10-15 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS SE 10-15 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WINDS SSE 10-15 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...MPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
659 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT, BRINGING IN
COOLER TEMPERATURES. CLOUDS WILL LINGER EVEN THOUGH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM WEST OF HERE ON FRIDAY
AND THEN TRACK WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AND THEN OFFSHORE THE EAST
COAST OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN LATE
FRIDAY WHICH CHANGES OVER TO A LITTLE BIT OF LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY, NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED, EXCEPT ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. CHILLY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY. A WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 650 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...RADAR TREND CONTINUE WITH RAINFALL
EAST OF CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY. THERE WERE/ARE A FEW BREAKS IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NY BUT SATELLITE
IMAGERY ALREADY SHOWS SOLID DECK MOVING INTO WESTERN NY AND
PROGRESSING. BASICALLY...NO CHANGES TO ON-GOING FORECAST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 330PM FOLLOWS: MID AFTERNOON UPDATE
STILL GOING ON TRACK. JUST MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
NEXT FEW HOURS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS SHOWING LIGHT PRECIPITATION
STILL FALLING ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN VERMONT AS THE FRONT EVER SO
SLOWLY PUSHES EAST. THE FRONT IS BEST SEEN BY A DEW POINT DROP
(UPPER 40S/LOW 50S TO THE UPPER 30S) ALONG WITH A WIND SHIFT TO
SOUTHWEST AND WEST.
ON THE TEMPERATURE FRONT FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS, SHADED TOWARD THE
WARMER GUIDANCE BASED ON THE EXPECTATION THAT CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW
TO CLEAR, SO LOOK FOR LOTS OF 30S WITH A FEW LOWER 40S.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 130PM FOLLOWS:
THE FORECAST STILL CONTINUES TO BE ON TRACK. THE SHOWERS OVER
SOUTHERN VERMONT ARE CONTINUING TO DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST
WITH SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTING IT WILL END UP SLOWING DOWN EVEN
FURTHER AND HANGING AROUND TILL EARLY THIS EVENING. SO THE ONLY
REAL CHANGE TO THE POPS WAS TO CONTINUE ITS PROGRESSION ALONG BUT
KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH THIS EVENING UNTIL AROUND 7PM. THE
ONLY OTHER ADDITION TO THE POP FORECAST WAS TO INTRODUCE A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK AS THE WINDS
CONTINUE TO SHIFT AROUND THE END RESULT WILL BE PARALLEL FLOW TO
THE GREAT LAKES WHICH COULD END UP IN SOME WEAK UPSLOPE SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER THE ADIRONDACKS OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN THAT ISN`T
VERY STRONG BUT THE SIGNAL DOES SHOW UP IN THE HRRR AND SOME LOCAL
HI-RES MODELS.
THE NEXT CONCERN WAS WHETHER WE WOULD END UP CLEARING OUT BUT AS
THE MOISTURE AXIS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST
THE FLOW WILL END UP SHIFTING ENOUGH FROM THE WEST TO THE
SOUTHWEST THAT THERE WILL BE SOME MOISTURE ADVECTION OFF THE GREAT
LAKES RESULTING IN CONTINUED CLOUD COVER. EXPECT THAT TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS EVENING AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
I MADE SOME SLIGHT TWEAKS TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST BECAUSE AT
THE THIS POINT WITH THE CLOUD COVER SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
WERE INDICATING SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION HAD ALREADY BEGUN AND
BOTH MT MANSFIELD AND WHITEFACE MT ARE RUNNING IN THE UPPER 30S
LOW 40S RIGHT NOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER TOMORROW AS WEAK
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER STILL
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WITH A LOW-MID LEVEL SOUTHWEST/WEST FLOW THAT
SHOULD KEEP BRINGING IN MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THUS NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER. BEST
CHANCES FOR MORE SUN WILL BE DOWN IN SOUTHEASTERN VERMONT WITH THE
AID OF DOWNSLOPING OFF THE GREENS. KEPT WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE
FOR TEMPERATURES. WITH 925MB TEMPERATURES IN THE 1-3C RANGE, THE
MAXIMUM WE COULD SEE WOULD BE THE LOW 50S. CLOUDS WILL PUT A
DAMPER ON THAT, AND SO THE GUIDANCE SHOWING 40S TO NEAR 50 SEEMED
GOOD. CAN`T RULE OUT A SPRINKLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN, BUT NOT
ENOUGH TO PUT INTO THE FORECAST.
THURSDAY NIGHT A LITTLE TRICKY ON THE CLOUDS AND HOW COLD IT COULD
GET. AGAIN, THINKING MORE CLOUDS THAN CLEAR AND THIS WILL ACT AS A
BLANKET. LEANED A LITTLE TOWARD WARMER GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF THAT.
HOWEVER IF WE DO GET SOME CLEARING, IT WILL BE CHILLIER THAN I`M
CURRENTLY PAINTING. GENERALLY HAVE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE
REGION (SOME UPPER 30S CLOSE TO LAKE CHAMPLAIN).
FRIDAY THINGS WILL BE CHANGING. THE CLOSELY WATCHED UPPER TROUGH
TO OUR WEST WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY AMPLIFYING AS ENERGY CURRENTLY
UP OVER NORTHERN CANADA DIVES INTO THE TROUGH. MODEL TRENDS OF THE
PAST FEW DAYS SHOWING THAT THE UPPER TROUGH (AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW) WILL BE DIGGING MORE SOUTH THAN EAST. THUS, LOOKS
LIKE THE AREA WILL BE ON THE FRINGE OF ALL THE "EXCITEMENT". STILL
CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THICKER CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND SOME
VERY LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON, MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER, HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 40S.
HALLOWEEN EVENING AND TRICK OR TREATING TIME:
GUIDANCE ALL PRETTY SIMILAR IN SHOWING THAT ALTHOUGH SOME
PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD INTO VERMONT BY LATE NIGHT, IT WILL ALL
BE ON THE VERY LIGHT SIDE. THE TRENDS OF HAVING THE MAIN LOW
PRESSURE TAKE A TRACK FAAAAR SOUTH OF HERE MEAN THAT QPF WILL
GENERALLY BE 0.05" OR LESS. AS THE NIGHT GOES ON, THE
TEMPERATURES ALOFT DO SLOWLY COOL SUCH THAT FREEZING LEVELS WILL
FALL AND BY LATE NIGHT IT SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH THAT A FEW
SNOWFLAKES WILL BE SEEN INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. AGAIN, NOT A
LOT OF STUFF FALLING FROM THE SKY. PERHAPS A SLUSHY 1/2" AT
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000FT, ESPECIALLY IN THE `DACKS COME SATURDAY
MORNING. BOTTOM LINE, THE GHOULS AND GOBLINS SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET
OUT AND AROUND WITHOUT TOO MUCH NEED OF UMBRELLAS -- AT LEAST IT
LOOKS THAT WAY AT THIS POINT. WE`LL SEE HOW FUTURE MODEL RUNS
TREND.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 402 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPS WITH A
CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED SAT AND SUN AS A STRONG
LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST EAST OF THE 40N/70W
BENCHMARK, THEN NORTH TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA. STILL COOL MONDAY BUT
DRY UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW. TEMPS RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BY TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS A WARM THEN COLD FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
CONFIDENCE INCREASING AS MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT
AD CONTINUE TO SHOW DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP UPPER TROF WHICH CLOSES
OFF. ALSO FAIR AGREEMENT WITH TRACK OF SFC LOW OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST SAT INTO SUNDAY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE
DETAILS OF HOW FAR NORTH AND WEST OF THE LOW THE PRECIPITATION
WILL EXTEND AS THE LOW DEEPENS RAPIDLY OVER THE WARM WATERS OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND CONVECTION DEVELOPS. THIS IS WHEN THE
MODELS USUALLY HAVE THEIR PROBLEMS ESPECIALLY WITH HOW FAR WEST
THE LOW WILL BE AND HOW MUCH MOISTURE IS THROWN BACK TOWARD NEW
ENGLAND ESPECIALLY LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
FOR NOW CONTINUING THE IDEA THAT THE OUR AREA WILL ONLY GET LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH MOST AREAS COLD ENOUGH TO
SEE A SOME FLAKES ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE MOSTLY
SNOW SHOWERS IS EXPECTED WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. IF THE LOW
TRACKS A LITTLE FURTHER WEST, PERHAPS EASTERN VT MAY GET IN ON
SOME LIGHT BUT STEADIER PRECIPITATION.
WE ARE EXPECTING NORTHERLY WINDS TO INCREASE AND BE GUSTY
ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
UPPER LEVEL TROF SLOWLY LIFTS OUT OF THE NE CONUS WITH TEMPS
RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL BY TUES CONTINUING INTO WED AS A WARM
THEN COLD FRONTS TRAVERSE THE AREA WITH WITH MAINLY A CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.
TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S SAT AND MONDAY,
30S SUNDAY BUT RECOVERING BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S TUES/WED.
LOWS GENERALLY 25 TO 35 BUT WARMING INTO THE 30S BY TUES/WED.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...GENERALLY LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA AND BETWEEN 02Z AND 12Z THERE MIGHT BE A FEW LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS BUT VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY. IN
ADDITION...CEILINGS WILL LOWER INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AT THIS TIME
BEFORE BECOMING VFR AGAIN AFTER 12Z. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT...BUT THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 08Z
AND 12Z...BUT SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS.
OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH STRATOCUMULUS
AND LIGHT NW FLOW. FRI CLOUDS WL INCREASE AND LOWER BY FRIDAY
NIGHT. PERIODS OF -SHRA WITH MTN -SHSN FRI NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH
MVFR CIGS IN THE VALLEYS AND POTENTIAL IFR VIS/CIGS AT MPV/SLK.
BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP SAT INTO SUNDAY WITH MAINLY MVFR ON
MONDAY UNDER NW FLOW.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...NASH/SLW
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...EVENSON/SISSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
653 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT, BRINGING IN
COOLER TEMPERATURES. CLOUDS WILL LINGER EVEN THOUGH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM WEST OF HERE ON FRIDAY
AND THEN TRACK WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AND THEN OFFSHORE THE EAST
COAST OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN LATE
FRIDAY WHICH CHANGES OVER TO A LITTLE BIT OF LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY, NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED, EXCEPT ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. CHILLY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY. A WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 650 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...RADAR TREND CONTINUE WITH RAINFALL
EAST OF CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY. THERE WERE/ARE A FEW BREAKS IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NY BUT SATELLITE
IMGERY ALREADY SHOWS SOLID DECK MOVING INTO WESTERN NY AND
PROGRESSING. BASICALLY...NO CHANGES TO ON-GOING FORECAST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 330PM FOLLOWS: MID AFTERNOON UPDATE
STILL GOING ON TRACK. JUST MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
NEXT FEW HOURS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS SHOWING LIGHT PRECIPITATION
STILL FALLING ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN VERMONT AS THE FRONT EVER SO
SLOWLY PUSHES EAST. THE FRONT IS BEST SEEN BY A DEWPOINT DROP
(UPPER 40S/LOW 50S TO THE UPPER 30S) ALONG WITH A WINDSHIFT TO
SOUTHWEST AND WEST.
ON THE TEMPERATURE FRONT FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS, SHADED TOWARD THE
WARMER GUIDANCE BASED ON THE EXPECTATION THAT CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW
TO CLEAR, SO LOOK FOR LOTS OF 30S WITH A FEW LOWER 40S.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 130PM FOLLOWS:
THE FORECAST STILL CONTINUES TO BE ON TRACK. THE SHOWERS OVER
SOUTHERN VERMONT ARE CONTINUING TO DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST
WITH SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTING IT WILL END UP SLOWING DOWN EVEN
FURTHER AND HANGING AROUND TILL EARLY THIS EVENING. SO THE ONLY
REAL CHANGE TO THE POPS WAS TO CONTINUE ITS PROGRESSION ALONG BUT
KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH THIS EVENING UNTIL AROUND 7PM. THE
ONLY OTHER ADDITION TO THE POP FORECAST WAS TO INTRODUCE A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK AS THE WINDS
CONTINUE TO SHIFT AROUND THE END RESULT WILL BE PARALLEL FLOW TO
THE GREAT LAKES WHICH COULD END UP IN SOME WEAK UPSLOPE SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER THE ADIRONDACKS OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN THAT ISN`T
VERY STRONG BUT THE SIGNAL DOES SHOW UP IN THE HRRR AND SOME LOCAL
HI-RES MODELS.
THE NEXT CONCERN WAS WHETHER WE WOULD END UP CLEARING OUT BUT AS
THE MOISTURE AXIS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST
THE FLOW WILL END UP SHIFTING ENOUGH FROM THE WEST TO THE
SOUTHWEST THAT THERE WILL BE SOME MOISTURE ADVECTION OFF THE GREAT
LAKES RESULTING IN CONTINUED CLOUD COVER. EXPECT THAT TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS EVENING AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
I MADE SOME SLIGHT TWEAKS TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST BECAUSE AT
THE THIS POINT WITH THE CLOUD COVER SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
WERE INDICATING SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION HAD ALREADY BEGUN AND
BOTH MT MANSFIELD AND WHITEFACE MT ARE RUNNING IN THE UPPER 30S
LOW 40S RIGHT NOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER TOMORROW AS WEAK
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER STILL
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WITH A LOW-MID LEVEL SOUTHWEST/WEST FLOW THAT
SHOULD KEEP BRINGING IN MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THUS NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER. BEST
CHANCES FOR MORE SUN WILL BE DOWN IN SOUTHEASTERN VERMONT WITH THE
AID OF DOWNSLOPING OFF THE GREENS. KEPT WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE
FOR TEMPERATURES. WITH 925MB TEMPERATURES IN THE 1-3C RANGE, THE
MAXIMUM WE COULD SEE WOULD BE THE LOW 50S. CLOUDS WILL PUT A
DAMPER ON THAT, AND SO THE GUIDANCE SHOWING 40S TO NEAR 50 SEEMED
GOOD. CAN`T RULE OUT A SPRINKLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN, BUT NOT
ENOUGH TO PUT INTO THE FORECAST.
THURSDAY NIGHT A LITTLE TRICKY ON THE CLOUDS AND HOW COLD IT COULD
GET. AGAIN, THINKING MORE CLOUDS THAN CLEAR AND THIS WILL ACT AS A
BLANKET. LEANED A LITTLE TOWARD WARMER GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF THAT.
HOWEVER IF WE DO GET SOME CLEARING, IT WILL BE CHILLIER THAN I`M
CURRENTLY PAINTING. GENERALLY HAVE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE
REGION (SOME UPPER 30S CLOSE TO LAKE CHAMPLAIN).
FRIDAY THINGS WILL BE CHANGING. THE CLOSELY WATCHED UPPER TROUGH
TO OUR WEST WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY AMPLIFYING AS ENERGY CURRENTLY
UP OVER NORTHERN CANADA DIVES INTO THE TROUGH. MODEL TRENDS OF THE
PAST FEW DAYS SHOWING THAT THE UPPER TROUGH (AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW) WILL BE DIGGING MORE SOUTH THAN EAST. THUS, LOOKS
LIKE THE AREA WILL BE ON THE FRINGE OF ALL THE "EXCITEMENT". STILL
CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THICKER CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND SOME
VERY LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON, MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER, HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 40S.
HALLOWEEN EVENING AND TRICK OR TREATING TIME:
GUIDANCE ALL PRETTY SIMILAR IN SHOWING THAT ALTHOUGH SOME
PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD INTO VERMONT BY LATE NIGHT, IT WILL ALL
BE ON THE VERY LIGHT SIDE. THE TRENDS OF HAVING THE MAIN LOW
PRESSURE TAKE A TRACK FAAAAR SOUTH OF HERE MEAN THAT QPF WILL
GENERALLY BE 0.05" OR LESS. AS THE NIGHT GOES ON, THE
TEMPERATURES ALOFT DO SLOWLY COOL SUCH THAT FREEZING LEVELS WILL
FALL AND BY LATE NIGHT IT SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH THAT A FEW
SNOWFLAKES WILL BE SEEN INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. AGAIN, NOT A
LOT OF STUFF FALLING FROM THE SKY. PERHAPS A SLUSHY 1/2" AT
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000FT, ESPECIALLY IN THE `DACKS COME SATURDAY
MORNING. BOTTOM LINE, THE GHOULS AND GOBLINS SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET
OUT AND AROUND WITHOUT TOO MUCH NEED OF UMBRELLAS -- AT LEAST IT
LOOKS THAT WAY AT THIS POINT. WE`LL SEE HOW FUTURE MODEL RUNS
TREND.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 402 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPS WITH A
CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED SAT AND SUN AS A STRONG
LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST EAST OF THE 40N/70W
BENCHMARK, THEN NORTH TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA. STILL COOL MONDAY BUT
DRY UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW. TEMPS RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BY TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS A WARM THEN COLD FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
CONFIDENCE INCREASING AS MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT
AD CONTINUE TO SHOW DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP UPPER TROF WHICH CLOSES
OFF. ALSO FAIR AGREEMENT WITH TRACK OF SFC LOW OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST SAT INTO SUNDAY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE
DETAILS OF HOW FAR NORTH AND WEST OF THE LOW THE PRECIPITATION
WILL EXTEND AS THE LOW DEEPENS RAPIDLY OVER THE WARM WATERS OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND CONVECTION DEVELOPS. THIS IS WHEN THE
MODELS USUALLY HAVE THEIR PROBLEMS ESPECIALLY WITH HOW FAR WEST
THE LOW WILL BE AND HOW MUCH MOISTURE IS THROWN BACK TOWARD NEW
ENGLAND ESPECIALLY LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
FOR NOW CONTINUING THE IDEA THAT THE OUR AREA WILL ONLY GET LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH MOST AREAS COLD ENOUGH TO
SEE A SOME FLAKES ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE MOSTLY
SNOW SHOWERS IS EXPECTED WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. IF THE LOW
TRACKS A LITTLE FURTHER WEST, PERHAPS EASTERN VT MAY GET IN ON
SOME LIGHT BUT STEADIER PRECIPITATION.
WE ARE EXPECTING NORTHERLY WINDS TO INCREASE AND BE GUSTY
ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
UPPER LEVEL TROF SLOWLY LIFTS OUT OF THE NE CONUS WITH TEMPS
RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL BY TUES CONTINUING INTO WED AS A WARM
THEN COLD FRONTS TRAVERSE THE AREA WITH WITH MAINLY A CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.
TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S SAT AND MONDAY,
30S SUNDAY BUT RECOVERING BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S TUES/WED.
LOWS GENERALLY 25 TO 35 BUT WARMING INTO THE 30S BY TUES/WED.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR, HOWEVER LCL MVFR CIGS AT KSLK.
A WEAK TROF/COLD FRONT SURFACE AND ALOFT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION
BETWEEN 06-12Z AND COULD BRING A SHOWER AT KSLK AROUND 06Z BUT
LEFT OUT DUE TO A PROBABILITY OF ABOUT 30% OF MEASURABLE PRECIP.
CONSIDERABLE STRATOCUMULUS EXPECTED WITH COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE
TROF TOMORROW.
SW/W WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS GUST TO 25 KNOTS THOUGH 21Z ESPECIALLY
KMSS/KSLK. WINDS GRADUALLY BECOME NW 5 TO 10 KTS TOMORROW.
OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
THU...MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH STRATOCUMULUS AND LIGHT NW FLOW. FRI
CLOUDS WL INCREASE AND LOWER BY FRIDAY NIGHT. PERIODS OF -SHRA
WITH MTN -SHSN FRI NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH MVFR CIGS IN THE VALLEYS
AND POTENTIAL IFR VIS/CIGS AT MPV/SLK. BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS
DEVELOP SAT INTO SUNDAY WITH MAINLY MVFR ON MONDAY UNDER NW FLOW.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...NASH/SLW
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...SISSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
403 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT, BRINGING IN
COOLER TEMPERATURES. CLOUDS WILL LINGER EVEN THOUGH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM WEST OF HERE ON FRIDAY
AND THEN TRACK WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AND THEN OFFSHORE THE EAST
COAST OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN LATE
FRIDAY WHICH CHANGES OVER TO A LITTLE BIT OF LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY, NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED, EXCEPT ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. CHILLY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY. A WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...MID AFTERNOON UPDATE STILL GOING ON
TRACK. JUST MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE NEXT FEW HOURS
BASED ON RADAR TRENDS SHOWING LIGHT PRECIPITATION STILL FALLING
ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN VERMONT AS THE FRONT EVER SO SLOWLY PUSHES
EAST. THE FRONT IS BEST SEEN BY A DEWPOINT DROP (UPPER 40S/LOW 50S
TO THE UPPER 30S) ALONG WITH A WINDSHIFT TO SOUTHWEST AND WEST.
ON THE TEMPERATURE FRONT FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS, SHADED TOWARD THE
WARMER GUIDANCE BASED ON THE EXPECTATION THAT CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW
TO CLEAR, SO LOOK FOR LOTS OF 30S WITH A FEW LOWER 40S.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 130PM FOLLOWS:
THE FORECAST STILL CONTINUES TO BE ON TRACK. THE SHOWERS OVER
SOUTHERN VERMONT ARE CONTINUING TO DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST
WITH SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTING IT WILL END UP SLOWING DOWN EVEN
FURTHER AND HANGING AROUND TILL EARLY THIS EVENING. SO THE ONLY
REAL CHANGE TO THE POPS WAS TO CONTINUE ITS PROGRESSION ALONG BUT
KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH THIS EVENING UNTIL AROUND 7PM. THE
ONLY OTHER ADDITION TO THE POP FORECAST WAS TO INTRODUCE A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK AS THE WINDS
CONTINUE TO SHIFT AROUND THE END RESULT WILL BE PARALLEL FLOW TO
THE GREAT LAKES WHICH COULD END UP IN SOME WEAK UPSLOPE SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER THE ADIRONDACKS OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN THAT ISN`T
VERY STRONG BUT THE SIGNAL DOES SHOW UP IN THE HRRR AND SOME LOCAL
HI-RES MODELS.
THE NEXT CONCERN WAS WHETHER WE WOULD END UP CLEARING OUT BUT AS
THE MOISTURE AXIS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST
THE FLOW WILL END UP SHIFTING ENOUGH FROM THE WEST TO THE
SOUTHWEST THAT THERE WILL BE SOME MOISTURE ADVECTION OFF THE GREAT
LAKES RESULTING IN CONTINUED CLOUD COVER. EXPECT THAT TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS EVENING AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
I MADE SOME SLIGHT TWEAKS TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST BECAUSE AT
THE THIS POINT WITH THE CLOUD COVER SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
WERE INDICATING SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION HAD ALREADY BEGUN AND
BOTH MT MANSFIELD AND WHITEFACE MT ARE RUNNING IN THE UPPER 30S
LOW 40S RIGHT NOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER TOMORROW AS WEAK
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER STILL
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WITH A LOW-MID LEVEL SOUTHWEST/WEST FLOW THAT
SHOULD KEEP BRINGING IN MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THUS NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER. BEST
CHANCES FOR MORE SUN WILL BE DOWN IN SOUTHEASTERN VERMONT WITH THE
AID OF DOWNSLOPING OFF THE GREENS. KEPT WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE
FOR TEMPERATURES. WITH 925MB TEMPERATURES IN THE 1-3C RANGE, THE
MAXIMUM WE COULD SEE WOULD BE THE LOW 50S. CLOUDS WILL PUT A
DAMPER ON THAT, AND SO THE GUIDANCE SHOWING 40S TO NEAR 50 SEEMED
GOOD. CAN`T RULE OUT A SPRINKLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN, BUT NOT
ENOUGH TO PUT INTO THE FORECAST.
THURSDAY NIGHT A LITTLE TRICKY ON THE CLOUDS AND HOW COLD IT COULD
GET. AGAIN, THINKING MORE CLOUDS THAN CLEAR AND THIS WILL ACT AS A
BLANKET. LEANED A LITTLE TOWARD WARMER GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF THAT.
HOWEVER IF WE DO GET SOME CLEARING, IT WILL BE CHILLIER THAN I`M
CURRENTLY PAINTING. GENERALLY HAVE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE
REGION (SOME UPPER 30S CLOSE TO LAKE CHAMPLAIN).
FRIDAY THINGS WILL BE CHANGING. THE CLOSELY WATCHED UPPER TROUGH
TO OUR WEST WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY AMPLIFYING AS ENERGY CURRENTLY
UP OVER NORTHERN CANADA DIVES INTO THE TROUGH. MODEL TRENDS OF THE
PAST FEW DAYS SHOWING THAT THE UPPER TROUGH (AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW) WILL BE DIGGING MORE SOUTH THAN EAST. THUS, LOOKS
LIKE THE AREA WILL BE ON THE FRINGE OF ALL THE "EXCITEMENT". STILL
CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THICKER CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND SOME
VERY LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON, MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER, HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 40S.
HALLOWEEN EVENING AND TRICK OR TREATING TIME:
GUIDANCE ALL PRETTY SIMILAR IN SHOWING THAT ALTHOUGH SOME
PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD INTO VERMONT BY LATE NIGHT, IT WILL ALL
BE ON THE VERY LIGHT SIDE. THE TRENDS OF HAVING THE MAIN LOW
PRESSURE TAKE A TRACK FAAAAR SOUTH OF HERE MEAN THAT QPF WILL
GENERALLY BE 0.05" OR LESS. AS THE NIGHT GOES ON, THE
TEMPERATURES ALOFT DO SLOWLY COOL SUCH THAT FREEZING LEVELS WILL
FALL AND BY LATE NIGHT IT SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH THAT A FEW
SNOWFLAKES WILL BE SEEN INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. AGAIN, NOT A
LOT OF STUFF FALLING FROM THE SKY. PERHAPS A SLUSHY 1/2" AT
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000FT, ESPECIALLY IN THE `DACKS COME SATURDAY
MORNING. BOTTOM LINE, THE GHOULS AND GOBLINS SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET
OUT AND AROUND WITHOUT TOO MUCH NEED OF UMBRELLAS -- AT LEAST IT
LOOKS THAT WAY AT THIS POINT. WE`LL SEE HOW FUTURE MODEL RUNS
TREND.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 402 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPS WITH A
CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED SAT AND SUN AS A STRONG
LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST EAST OF THE 40N/70W
BENCHMARK, THEN NORTH TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA. STILL COOL MONDAY BUT
DRY UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW. TEMPS RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BY TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS A WARM THEN COLD FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
CONFIDENCE INCREASING AS MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT
AD CONTINUE TO SHOW DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP UPPER TROF WHICH CLOSES
OFF. ALSO FAIR AGREEMENT WITH TRACK OF SFC LOW OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST SAT INTO SUNDAY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE
DETAILS OF HOW FAR NORTH AND WEST OF THE LOW THE PRECIPITATION
WILL EXTEND AS THE LOW DEEPENS RAPIDLY OVER THE WARM WATERS OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND CONVECTION DEVELOPS. THIS IS WHEN THE
MODELS USUALLY HAVE THEIR PROBLEMS ESPECIALLY WITH HOW FAR WEST
THE LOW WILL BE AND HOW MUCH MOISTURE IS THROWN BACK TOWARD NEW
ENGLAND ESPECIALLY LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
FOR NOW CONTINUING THE IDEA THAT THE OUR AREA WILL ONLY GET LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH MOST AREAS COLD ENOUGH TO
SEE A SOME FLAKES ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE MOSTLY
SNOW SHOWERS IS EXPECTED WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. IF THE LOW
TRACKS A LITTLE FURTHER WEST, PERHAPS EASTERN VT MAY GET IN ON
SOME LIGHT BUT STEADIER PRECIPITATION.
WE ARE EXPECTING NORTHERLY WINDS TO INCREASE AND BE GUSTY
ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
UPPER LEVEL TROF SLOWLY LIFTS OUT OF THE NE CONUS WITH TEMPS
RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL BY TUES CONTINUING INTO WED AS A WARM
THEN COLD FRONTS TRAVERSE THE AREA WITH WITH MAINLY A CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.
TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S SAT AND MONDAY,
30S SUNDAY BUT RECOVERING BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S TUES/WED.
LOWS GENERALLY 25 TO 35 BUT WARMING INTO THE 30S BY TUES/WED.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR, HOWEVER LCL MVFR CIGS AT KSLK.
A WEAK TROF/COLD FRONT SURFACE AND ALOFT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION
BETWEEN 06-12Z AND COULD BRING A SHOWER AT KSLK AROUND 06Z BUT
LEFT OUT DUE TO A PROBABILITY OF ABOUT 30% OF MEASURABLE PRECIP.
CONSIDERABLE STRATOCUMULUS EXPECTED WITH COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE
TROF TOMORROW.
SW/W WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS GUST TO 25 KNOTS THOUGH 21Z ESPECIALLY
KMSS/KSLK. WINDS GRADUALLY BECOME NW 5 TO 10 KTS TOMORROW.
OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
THU...MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH STRATOCUMULUS AND LIGHT NW FLOW. FRI
CLOUDS WL INCREASE AND LOWER BY FRIDAY NIGHT. PERIODS OF -SHRA
WITH MTN -SHSN FRI NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH MVFR CIGS IN THE VALLEYS
AND POTENTIAL IFR VIS/CIGS AT MPV/SLK. BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS
DEVELOP SAT INTO SUNDAY WITH MAINLY MVFR ON MONDAY UNDER NW FLOW.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...SISSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
401 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT, BRINGING IN
COOLER TEMPERATURES. CLOUDS WILL LINGER EVEN THOUGH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM WEST OF HERE ON FRIDAY
AND THEN TRACK WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AND THEN OFFSHORE THE EAST
COAST OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN LATE
FRIDAY WHICH CHANGES OVER TO A LITTLE BIT OF LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY, NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED, EXCEPT ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. CHILLY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY. A WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...MID AFTERNOON UPDATE STILL GOING ON
TRACK. JUST MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE NEXT FEW HOURS
BASED ON RADAR TRENDS SHOWING LIGHT PRECIPITATION STILL FALLING
ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN VERMONT AS THE FRONT EVER SO SLOWLY PUSHES
EAST. THE FRONT IS BEST SEEN BY A DEWPOINT DROP (UPPER 40S/LOW 50S
TO THE UPPER 30S) ALONG WITH A WINDSHIFT TO SOUTHWEST AND WEST.
ON THE TEMPERATURE FRONT FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS, SHADED TOWARD THE
WARMER GUIDANCE BASED ON THE EXPECTATION THAT CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW
TO CLEAR, SO LOOK FOR LOTS OF 30S WITH A FEW LOWER 40S.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 130PM FOLLOWS:
THE FORECAST STILL CONTINUES TO BE ON TRACK. THE SHOWERS OVER
SOUTHERN VERMONT ARE CONTINUING TO DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST
WITH SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTING IT WILL END UP SLOWING DOWN EVEN
FURTHER AND HANGING AROUND TILL EARLY THIS EVENING. SO THE ONLY
REAL CHANGE TO THE POPS WAS TO CONTINUE ITS PROGRESSION ALONG BUT
KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH THIS EVENING UNTIL AROUND 7PM. THE
ONLY OTHER ADDITION TO THE POP FORECAST WAS TO INTRODUCE A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK AS THE WINDS
CONTINUE TO SHIFT AROUND THE END RESULT WILL BE PARALLEL FLOW TO
THE GREAT LAKES WHICH COULD END UP IN SOME WEAK UPSLOPE SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER THE ADIRONDACKS OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN THAT ISN`T
VERY STRONG BUT THE SIGNAL DOES SHOW UP IN THE HRRR AND SOME LOCAL
HI-RES MODELS.
THE NEXT CONCERN WAS WHETHER WE WOULD END UP CLEARING OUT BUT AS
THE MOISTURE AXIS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST
THE FLOW WILL END UP SHIFTING ENOUGH FROM THE WEST TO THE
SOUTHWEST THAT THERE WILL BE SOME MOISTURE ADVECTION OFF THE GREAT
LAKES RESULTING IN CONTINUED CLOUD COVER. EXPECT THAT TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS EVENING AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
I MADE SOME SLIGHT TWEAKS TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST BECAUSE AT
THE THIS POINT WITH THE CLOUD COVER SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
WERE INDICATING SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION HAD ALREADY BEGUN AND
BOTH MT MANSFIELD AND WHITEFACE MT ARE RUNNING IN THE UPPER 30S
LOW 40S RIGHT NOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER TOMORROW AS WEAK
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER STILL
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WITH A LOW-MID LEVEL SOUTHWEST/WEST FLOW THAT
SHOULD KEEP BRINGING IN MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THUS NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER. BEST
CHANCES FOR MORE SUN WILL BE DOWN IN SOUTHEASTERN VERMONT WITH THE
AID OF DOWNSLOPING OFF THE GREENS. KEPT WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE
FOR TEMPERATURES. WITH 925MB TEMPERATURES IN THE 1-3C RANGE, THE
MAXIMUM WE COULD SEE WOULD BE THE LOW 50S. CLOUDS WILL PUT A
DAMPER ON THAT, AND SO THE GUIDANCE SHOWING 40S TO NEAR 50 SEEMED
GOOD. CAN`T RULE OUT A SPRINKLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN, BUT NOT
ENOUGH TO PUT INTO THE FORECAST.
THURSDAY NIGHT A LITTLE TRICKY ON THE CLOUDS AND HOW COLD IT COULD
GET. AGAIN, THINKING MORE CLOUDS THAN CLEAR AND THIS WILL ACT AS A
BLANKET. LEANED A LITTLE TOWARD WARMER GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF THAT.
HOWEVER IF WE DO GET SOME CLEARING, IT WILL BE CHILLIER THAN I`M
CURRENTLY PAINTING. GENERALLY HAVE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE
REGION (SOME UPPER 30S CLOSE TO LAKE CHAMPLAIN).
FRIDAY THINGS WILL BE CHANGING. THE CLOSELY WATCHED UPPER TROUGH
TO OUR WEST WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY AMPLIFYING AS ENERGY CURRENTLY
UP OVER NORTHERN CANADA DIVES INTO THE TROUGH. MODEL TRENDS OF THE
PAST FEW DAYS SHOWING THAT THE UPPER TROUGH (AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW) WILL BE DIGGING MORE SOUTH THAN EAST. THUS, LOOKS
LIKE THE AREA WILL BE ON THE FRINGE OF ALL THE "EXCITEMENT". STILL
CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THICKER CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND SOME
VERY LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON, MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER, HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 40S.
HALLOWEEN EVENING AND TRICK OR TREATING TIME:
GUIDANCE ALL PRETTY SIMILAR IN SHOWING THAT ALTHOUGH SOME
PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD INTO VERMONT BY LATE NIGHT, IT WILL ALL
BE ON THE VERY LIGHT SIDE. THE TRENDS OF HAVING THE MAIN LOW
PRESSURE TAKE A TRACK FAAAAR SOUTH OF HERE MEAN THAT QPF WILL
GENERALLY BE 0.05" OR LESS. AS THE NIGHT GOES ON, THE
TEMPERATURES ALOFT DO SLOWLY COOL SUCH THAT FREEZING LEVELS WILL
FALL AND BY LATE NIGHT IT SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH THAT A FEW
SNOWFLAKES WILL BE SEEN INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. AGAIN, NOT A
LOT OF STUFF FALLING FROM THE SKY. PERHAPS A SLUSHY 1/2" AT
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000FT, ESPECIALLY IN THE `DACKS COME SATURDAY
MORNING. BOTTOM LINE, THE GHOULS AND GOBLINS SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET
OUT AND AROUND WITHOUT TOO MUCH NEED OF UMBRELLAS -- AT LEAST IT
LOOKS THAT WAY AT THIS POINT. WE`LL SEE HOW FUTURE MODEL RUNS
TREND.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...A DEVELOPING FULL LATITUDE MID/UPPER
LVL TROF ACRS THE EASTERN CONUS WL RESULT IN MUCH BLW NORMAL TEMPS
THIS WEEKEND ACRS OUR CWA...ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION IN THE MTNS. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH DEVELOPMENT OF TROF AND TRACK OF SFC LOW PRES OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST SAT INTO SUNDAY...BUT STILL FEEL A FEW MORE SHIFTS
ARE LIKELY GIVEN TIME PERIOD IS STILL 84 TO 96 HRS AWAY AND S/W
DISTURBANCE OF INTEREST IS LOCATED OVER AN AREA WHICH IS POORLY
SAMPLED BY UA DATA.
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...POTENT 5H VORT DROPS ACRS THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES...AND HELPS DEVELOP A CLOSED 5H/7H CIRCULATION OVER NW
NORTH CAROLINA BY 12Z SAT. THIS TIGHT/SMALL CIRCULATION WL SHIFT
EAST ON SATURDAY...AND HELP ENHANCE SFC LOW PRES OFF THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD...OVER THE WARM GULF STREAM WATERS. TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR
S/W ENERGY AND CLOSED CIRCULATION TO TRACK FURTHER SOUTH WHILE SFC
LOW PRES DEVELOPS FURTHER OFF THE COAST...RESULTING IN LESS
OVERALL MOISTURE/QPF ACRS OUR CWA. HOWEVER...GFS/ECMWF STILL SHOWS
SOME 850 TO 500MB RH IN TROF AXIS ACRS OUR FA...ALONG WITH
DEVELOPING NORTHERLY WINDS. IN ADDITION...PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN
-8 AND -10C...MOVING OVER LAKE CHAMPLAIN WATER TEMPS IN THE MID
50S WL RESULT IN SOME LAKE ENHANCED MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY SAT AFTN INTO SUNDAY. WL CONT TO
MENTION LIKELY POPS FOR NORTHERN NY ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH INITIAL
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE. WL SPREAD THESE
HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY POPS INTO VT MTNS ON SATURDAY...BEFORE
TAPERING BACK BY SUNDAY...AS DRIER AIR DEVELOPS. STILL THINKING A
DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES WL BE LIKELY OVER THE WEEKEND ACRS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN NY AND VT.
ECMWF CONTS TO SHOW SOME SUPPORT FOR SECONDARY 5H VORT CAPTURING
SYSTEM SOON ENOUGH AND PULLING MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION INTO THE
GULF OF MAINE ON SUNDAY. IF THIS SCENARIO WAS TO HAPPEN...HIGHER
POPS WOULD BE NEEDED ACRS CENTRAL/NORTHERN AND EASTERN VT ZNS ON
SUNDAY. ALSO...ANY SHIFT TWD THE SNE COAST WOULD RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANTLY MORE PRECIP ACRS OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN
SECTIONS...WHICH WL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY...ESPECIALLY AS
SYSTEM WL BECOME BETTER SAMPLED BY UA DATA OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HRS. TEMPS WL BE IN THE U20S TO MID 30S MTNS TO MID 30S TO L40S
VALLEYS SAT...WITH ONLY 20S MTNS AND 30S VALLEYS ON SUNDAY. THESE
CHILLY TEMPS WL BE ACCOMPANIED BY BRISK NORTH WINDS AT 15 TO 25
MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN THE ALIGNED NORTH/SOUTH VALLEYS.
EARLY NEXT WEEK...MID/UPPER LVL TROF SLOWLY LIFTS OUT OF THE NE
CONUS WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES BY MONDAY. NEXT
WEAK SFC COLD FRNT AND NARROW RIBBON OF MID LVL MOISTURE
APPROACHES OUR CWA ON TUES...WITH MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS. PROGGED 85H
TEMPS CLIMB BTWN 2C AND 4C BY 12Z TUESDAY...RESULTING IN MOSTLY
LIQUID. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED LLVL COLD AIR HANGS TOUGH EAST OF
THE GREEN MTNS ON MONDAY/TUESDAY...WITH TEMPS HOLDING IN THE M30S
TO L40S...WHILE PARTS OF THE CPV/SLV WARM INTO THE M40S TO L50S ON
SOUTHWEST WINDS. QPF WL BE LIGHT WITH SYSTEM ON TUES < 0.25".
&&
.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR, HOWEVER LCL MVFR CIGS AT KSLK.
A WEAK TROF/COLD FRONT SURFACE AND ALOFT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION
BETWEEN 06-12Z AND COULD BRING A SHOWER AT KSLK AROUND 06Z BUT
LEFT OUT DUE TO A PROBABILITY OF ABOUT 30% OF MEASURABLE PRECIP.
CONSIDERABLE STRATOCUMULUS EXPECTED WITH COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE
TROF TOMORROW.
SW/W WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS GUST TO 25 KNOTS THOUGH 21Z ESPECIALLY
KMSS/KSLK. WINDS GRADUALLY BECOME NW 5 TO 10 KTS TOMORROW.
OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
THU...MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH STRATOCUMULUS AND LIGHT NW FLOW. FRI
CLOUDS WL INCREASE AND LOWER BY FRIDAY NIGHT. PERIODS OF -SHRA
WITH MTN -SHSN FRI NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH MVFR CIGS IN THE VALLEYS
AND POTENTIAL IFR VIS/CIGS AT MPV/SLK. BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS
DEVELOP SAT INTO SUNDAY WITH MAINLY MVFR ON MONDAY UNDER NW FLOW.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...NASH/DEAL
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...SISSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
212 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT TODAY. A WEAK AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN RESIDE OVER THE REGION LATER TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES
TRENDING COOLER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 133 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... THE FORECAST STILL CONTINUES TO BE
ON TRACK. THE SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN VERMONT ARE CONTINUING TO
DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST WITH SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTING IT
WILL END UP SLOWING DOWN EVEN FURTHER AND HANGING AROUND TILL
EARLY THIS EVENING. SO THE ONLY REAL CHANGE TO THE POPS WAS TO
CONTINUE ITS PROGRESSION ALONG BUT KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH
THIS EVENING UNTIL AROUND 7PM. THE ONLY OTHER ADDITION TO THE
POP FORECAST WAS TO INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS
OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK AS THE WINDS CONTINUE TO SHIFT AROUND THE
END RESULT WILL BE PARALLEL FLOW TO THE GREAT LAKES WHICH COULD
END UP IN SOME WEAK UPSLOPE SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE ADIRONDACKS
OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN THAT ISN`T VERY STRONG BUT THE SIGNAL
DOES SHOW UP IN THE HRRR AND SOME LOCAL HI-RES MODELS.
THE NEXT CONCERN WAS WHETHER WE WOULD END UP CLEARING OUT BUT AS
THE MOISTURE AXIS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST
THE FLOW WILL END UP SHIFTING ENOUGH FROM THE WEST TO THE
SOUTHWEST THAT THERE WILL BE SOME MOISTURE ADVECTION OFF THE GREAT
LAKES RESULTING IN CONTINUED CLOUD COVER. EXPECT THAT TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS EVENING AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
I MADE SOME SLIGHT TWEAKS TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST BECAUSE AT
THE THIS POINT WITH THE CLOUD COVER SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
WERE INDICATING SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION HAD ALREADY BEGUN AND
BOTH MT MANSFIELD AND WHITEFACE MT ARE RUNNING IN THE UPPER 30S
LOW 40S RIGHT NOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 436 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...EXPECTING MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES TO
LINGER ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS A
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION AND WINDS
WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. A
SHARP UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
ON FRIDAY...WITH CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED OVER THE REGION. HAVE GONE
WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK...MAINLY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR RAIN SHOWERS...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN
SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...A DEVELOPING FULL LATITUDE MID/UPPER
LVL TROF ACRS THE EASTERN CONUS WL RESULT IN MUCH BLW NORMAL TEMPS
THIS WEEKEND ACRS OUR CWA...ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION IN THE MTNS. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH DEVELOPMENT OF TROF AND TRACK OF SFC LOW PRES OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST SAT INTO SUNDAY...BUT STILL FEEL A FEW MORE SHIFTS
ARE LIKELY GIVEN TIME PERIOD IS STILL 84 TO 96 HRS AWAY AND S/W
DISTURBANCE OF INTEREST IS LOCATED OVER AN AREA WHICH IS POORLY
SAMPLED BY UA DATA.
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...POTENT 5H VORT DROPS ACRS THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES...AND HELPS DEVELOP A CLOSED 5H/7H CIRCULATION OVER NW
NORTH CAROLINA BY 12Z SAT. THIS TIGHT/SMALL CIRCULATION WL SHIFT
EAST ON SATURDAY...AND HELP ENHANCE SFC LOW PRES OFF THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD...OVER THE WARM GULF STREAM WATERS. TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR
S/W ENERGY AND CLOSED CIRCULATION TO TRACK FURTHER SOUTH WHILE SFC
LOW PRES DEVELOPS FURTHER OFF THE COAST...RESULTING IN LESS
OVERALL MOISTURE/QPF ACRS OUR CWA. HOWEVER...GFS/ECMWF STILL SHOWS
SOME 850 TO 500MB RH IN TROF AXIS ACRS OUR FA...ALONG WITH
DEVELOPING NORTHERLY WINDS. IN ADDITION...PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN
-8 AND -10C...MOVING OVER LAKE CHAMPLAIN WATER TEMPS IN THE MID
50S WL RESULT IN SOME LAKE ENHANCED MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY SAT AFTN INTO SUNDAY. WL CONT TO
MENTION LIKELY POPS FOR NORTHERN NY ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH INITIAL
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE. WL SPREAD THESE
HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY POPS INTO VT MTNS ON SATURDAY...BEFORE
TAPERING BACK BY SUNDAY...AS DRIER AIR DEVELOPS. STILL THINKING A
DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES WL BE LIKELY OVER THE WEEKEND ACRS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN NY AND VT.
ECMWF CONTS TO SHOW SOME SUPPORT FOR SECONDARY 5H VORT CAPTURING
SYSTEM SOON ENOUGH AND PULLING MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION INTO THE
GULF OF MAINE ON SUNDAY. IF THIS SCENARIO WAS TO HAPPEN...HIGHER
POPS WOULD BE NEEDED ACRS CENTRAL/NORTHERN AND EASTERN VT ZNS ON
SUNDAY. ALSO...ANY SHIFT TWD THE SNE COAST WOULD RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANTLY MORE PRECIP ACRS OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN
SECTIONS...WHICH WL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY...ESPECIALLY AS
SYSTEM WL BECOME BETTER SAMPLED BY UA DATA OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HRS. TEMPS WL BE IN THE U20S TO MID 30S MTNS TO MID 30S TO L40S
VALLEYS SAT...WITH ONLY 20S MTNS AND 30S VALLEYS ON SUNDAY. THESE
CHILLY TEMPS WL BE ACCOMPANIED BY BRISK NORTH WINDS AT 15 TO 25
MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN THE ALIGNED NORTH/SOUTH VALLEYS.
EARLY NEXT WEEK...MID/UPPER LVL TROF SLOWLY LIFTS OUT OF THE NE
CONUS WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES BY MONDAY. NEXT
WEAK SFC COLD FRNT AND NARROW RIBBON OF MID LVL MOISTURE
APPROACHES OUR CWA ON TUES...WITH MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS. PROGGED 85H
TEMPS CLIMB BTWN 2C AND 4C BY 12Z TUESDAY...RESULTING IN MOSTLY
LIQUID. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED LLVL COLD AIR HANGS TOUGH EAST OF
THE GREEN MTNS ON MONDAY/TUESDAY...WITH TEMPS HOLDING IN THE M30S
TO L40S...WHILE PARTS OF THE CPV/SLV WARM INTO THE M40S TO L50S ON
SOUTHWEST WINDS. QPF WL BE LIGHT WITH SYSTEM ON TUES < 0.25".
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR, HOWEVER LCL MVFR CIGS AT KSLK.
A WEAK TROF/COLD FRONT SURFACE AND ALOFT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION
BETWEEN 06-12Z AND COULD BRING A SHOWER AT KSLK AROUND 06Z BUT
LEFT OUT DUE TO A PROBABILITY OF ABOUT 30% OF MEASURABLE PRECIP.
CONSIDERABLE STRATOCUMULUS EXPECTED WITH COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE
TROF TOMORROW.
SW/W WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS GUST TO 25 KNOTS THOUGH 21Z ESPECIALLY
KMSS/KSLK. WINDS GRADUALLY BECOME NW 5 TO 10 KTS TOMORROW.
OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
THU...MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH STRATOCUMULUS AND LIGHT NW FLOW. FRI
CLOUDS WL INCREASE AND LOWER BY FRIDAY NIGHT. PERIODS OF -SHRA
WITH MTN -SHSN FRI NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH MVFR CIGS IN THE VALLEYS
AND POTENTIAL IFR VIS/CIGS AT MPV/SLK. BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS
DEVELOP SAT INTO SUNDAY WITH MAINLY MVFR ON MONDAY UNDER NW FLOW.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...SISSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
155 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT TODAY. A WEAK AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN RESIDE OVER THE REGION LATER TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES
TRENDING COOLER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 133 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... THE FORECAST STILL CONTINUES TO BE
ON TRACK. THE SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN VERMONT ARE CONTINUING TO
DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST WITH SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTING IT
WILL END UP SLOWING DOWN EVEN FURTHER AND HANGING AROUND TILL
EARLY THIS EVENING. SO THE ONLY REAL CHANGE TO THE POPS WAS TO
CONTINUE ITS PROGRESSION ALONG BUT KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH
THIS EVENING UNTIL AROUND 7PM. THE ONLY OTHER ADDITION TO THE
POP FORECAST WAS TO INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS
OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK AS THE WINDS CONTINUE TO SHIFT AROUND THE
END RESULT WILL BE PARALLEL FLOW TO THE GREAT LAKES WHICH COULD
END UP IN SOME WEAK UPSLOPE SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE ADIRONDACKS
OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN THAT ISN`T VERY STRONG BUT THE SIGNAL
DOES SHOW UP IN THE HRRR AND SOME LOCAL HI-RES MODELS.
THE NEXT CONCERN WAS WHETHER WE WOULD END UP CLEARING OUT BUT AS
THE MOISTURE AXIS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST
THE FLOW WILL END UP SHIFTING ENOUGH FROM THE WEST TO THE
SOUTHWEST THAT THERE WILL BE SOME MOISTURE ADVECTION OFF THE GREAT
LAKES RESULTING IN CONTINUED CLOUD COVER. EXPECT THAT TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS EVENING AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
I MADE SOME SLIGHT TWEAKS TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST BECAUSE AT
THE THIS POINT WITH THE CLOUD COVER SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
WERE INDICATING SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION HAD ALREADY BEGUN AND
BOTH MT MANSFIELD AND WHITEFACE MT ARE RUNNING IN THE UPPER 30S
LOW 40S RIGHT NOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 436 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...EXPECTING MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES TO
LINGER ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS A
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION AND WINDS
WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. A
SHARP UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
ON FRIDAY...WITH CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED OVER THE REGION. HAVE GONE
WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK...MAINLY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR RAIN SHOWERS...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN
SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...A DEVELOPING FULL LATITUDE MID/UPPER
LVL TROF ACRS THE EASTERN CONUS WL RESULT IN MUCH BLW NORMAL TEMPS
THIS WEEKEND ACRS OUR CWA...ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION IN THE MTNS. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH DEVELOPMENT OF TROF AND TRACK OF SFC LOW PRES OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST SAT INTO SUNDAY...BUT STILL FEEL A FEW MORE SHIFTS
ARE LIKELY GIVEN TIME PERIOD IS STILL 84 TO 96 HRS AWAY AND S/W
DISTURBANCE OF INTEREST IS LOCATED OVER AN AREA WHICH IS POORLY
SAMPLED BY UA DATA.
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...POTENT 5H VORT DROPS ACRS THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES...AND HELPS DEVELOP A CLOSED 5H/7H CIRCULATION OVER NW
NORTH CAROLINA BY 12Z SAT. THIS TIGHT/SMALL CIRCULATION WL SHIFT
EAST ON SATURDAY...AND HELP ENHANCE SFC LOW PRES OFF THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD...OVER THE WARM GULF STREAM WATERS. TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR
S/W ENERGY AND CLOSED CIRCULATION TO TRACK FURTHER SOUTH WHILE SFC
LOW PRES DEVELOPS FURTHER OFF THE COAST...RESULTING IN LESS
OVERALL MOISTURE/QPF ACRS OUR CWA. HOWEVER...GFS/ECMWF STILL SHOWS
SOME 850 TO 500MB RH IN TROF AXIS ACRS OUR FA...ALONG WITH
DEVELOPING NORTHERLY WINDS. IN ADDITION...PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN
-8 AND -10C...MOVING OVER LAKE CHAMPLAIN WATER TEMPS IN THE MID
50S WL RESULT IN SOME LAKE ENHANCED MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY SAT AFTN INTO SUNDAY. WL CONT TO
MENTION LIKELY POPS FOR NORTHERN NY ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH INITIAL
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE. WL SPREAD THESE
HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY POPS INTO VT MTNS ON SATURDAY...BEFORE
TAPERING BACK BY SUNDAY...AS DRIER AIR DEVELOPS. STILL THINKING A
DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES WL BE LIKELY OVER THE WEEKEND ACRS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN NY AND VT.
ECMWF CONTS TO SHOW SOME SUPPORT FOR SECONDARY 5H VORT CAPTURING
SYSTEM SOON ENOUGH AND PULLING MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION INTO THE
GULF OF MAINE ON SUNDAY. IF THIS SCENARIO WAS TO HAPPEN...HIGHER
POPS WOULD BE NEEDED ACRS CENTRAL/NORTHERN AND EASTERN VT ZNS ON
SUNDAY. ALSO...ANY SHIFT TWD THE SNE COAST WOULD RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANTLY MORE PRECIP ACRS OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN
SECTIONS...WHICH WL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY...ESPECIALLY AS
SYSTEM WL BECOME BETTER SAMPLED BY UA DATA OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HRS. TEMPS WL BE IN THE U20S TO MID 30S MTNS TO MID 30S TO L40S
VALLEYS SAT...WITH ONLY 20S MTNS AND 30S VALLEYS ON SUNDAY. THESE
CHILLY TEMPS WL BE ACCOMPANIED BY BRISK NORTH WINDS AT 15 TO 25
MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN THE ALIGNED NORTH/SOUTH VALLEYS.
EARLY NEXT WEEK...MID/UPPER LVL TROF SLOWLY LIFTS OUT OF THE NE
CONUS WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES BY MONDAY. NEXT
WEAK SFC COLD FRNT AND NARROW RIBBON OF MID LVL MOISTURE
APPROACHES OUR CWA ON TUES...WITH MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS. PROGGED 85H
TEMPS CLIMB BTWN 2C AND 4C BY 12Z TUESDAY...RESULTING IN MOSTLY
LIQUID. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED LLVL COLD AIR HANGS TOUGH EAST OF
THE GREEN MTNS ON MONDAY/TUESDAY...WITH TEMPS HOLDING IN THE M30S
TO L40S...WHILE PARTS OF THE CPV/SLV WARM INTO THE M40S TO L50S ON
SOUTHWEST WINDS. QPF WL BE LIGHT WITH SYSTEM ON TUES < 0.25".
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...WEAK SFC COLD FRNT AND ASSOCIATED RIBBON
OF MOISTURE IS PRODUCING A NARROW BAND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FROM
MPV TO RUT THIS MORNING. THIS PRECIP WL BE EAST OF OUR TAF SITES
BY 14Z. OTHERWISE...OBS AT PBG/SLK THIS MORNING HAVE INDICATED
SOME SHALLOW GROUND FOG WITH BRIEF LIFR CONDITIONS...BUT THIS
SHOULD QUICKLY LIFT AS WINDS INCREASE. EXPECTING A BREEZY DAY WITH
SOUTHWEST/WEST WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS AND GUSTS BTWN 20 AND 30
KNOTS...ESPECIALLY BTWN 15-21Z TODAY. SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD MIXING
AS SFC HEATING OCCURS AND SKIES BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY WITH VFR
CONDITION. MOISTURE INCREASES THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT RAIN AND
MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY AT SLK AFT 03Z...AS LAKE MOISTURE MOVES
INTO THE REGION.
OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
THRU FRIDAY AFTN. CLOUDS WL INCREASE AND LOWER BY FRIDAY NIGHT AS
THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES OUR TAF SITES. SCATTERED RAIN WITH MTN
SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH MVFR CIGS IN THE
VALLEYS AND POTENTIAL IFR VIS/CIGS AT MPV/SLK. BRISK NORTHERLY
WINDS DEVELOP SAT INTO SUNDAY WITH SCATTERED MTN SNOW SHOWERS AND
VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS/MIXED WITH SNOW ON SAT NIGHT. MAINLY MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS ANTICIPATED.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
303 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
CURRENT VIS SATELLITE SHOWS AN AREA OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ROUGHLY
ALONG AND ADJACENT TO (ND SIDE) THE RED RIVER VALLEY. MORE CLOUD
COVER IS MOVING IN FROM SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND WILL
LIKELY FILL THIS IN...HOWEVER NOW HAVE MORE HOPE THAN AT PREV
UPDATE THE WESTERN EDGE WILL FURTHER ERODE TO THOSE ZONES ALONG
THE VALLEY ON THE MN SIDE. FURTHER EAST...MAY SEE CLOUDS LINGER
WELL INTO THE NIGHT IN BELTRAMI/LAKE OF THE WOODS/WADENA COUNTIES.
MODELS CONTINUE TO VARY IN PLACEMENT OF PRECIP...WITH ECMWF HAVING
THE MOST COVERAGE...THE NAM A SMALLER AREA BASICALLY TARGETING SE
ND...THE GEM E CNTRL ND AND THE GFS AN EAST/WEST BAND ORIENTED
ACROSS W CNTRL MN. THE HRRR COMP REF PRODUCT TENDS TO BRING
PRECIP INTO THE AREAS DEPICTED BY THE GEM/ECMWF (FURTHER NORTH)
AND A BLEND OF THESE MODELS IS WHAT I HAVE USED FOR POP
GRIDS...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SRN VALLEY.
TONIGHT...SFC LOW WILL TRACK ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE INTL
BORDER...DROPPING INTO SRN MN BY 12Z TOMORROW MORNING. THERE HAS BEEN
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF GROUND TRUTH FROM METARS IN ERN MT AND WRN
ND...MOST SITES SHOWING 6K CIGS AND NO PRECIP. RADAR AND OB FROM
KDIK DOES INDICATE PRECIP REACHING THE SFC AROUND AND SOUTH OF
LAKE SAKAKAWEA. THESE ECHOES ARE MOVING NEARLY DUE EAST SO PRECIP
MAY STAY SOUTH OF HWY 2 CORRIDOR. WILL ADJUST POP GRIDS PRIOR TO 4
PM FCST ISSUANCE. PRECIP SHOULD ENTER WRN EDGE OF CWA AROUND OR
JUST AFTER 00Z AND LIKELY CLEAR ND BY 12Z.
TOMORROW...A WEAK WAVE WILL MOVE INTO WRN ONTARIO AS MODEST COLD
ADVECTION BRINGS COOLER TEMPS INTO THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE
CWA. THIS COULD DRAW ENOUGH COLD AIR IN TO SEE SOME SNOW FLAKES IN
BELTRAMI/LAKE OF THE WOODS AND HAVE ADDED MENTION OF SNOW TO THE
FCST. WILL NOT HAVE ANY SNOW WOULD LIKELY MELT ON THE WARMER
SURFACES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DROP DOWN FROM MANITOBA AND
THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA SHOULD CLEAR OUT AND BE DRY.
TOMORROW NIGHT...RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OVER FAR EASTERN ZONES ON FRI
AND FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED EAST...WITH RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT WITHIN AND WEST OF THE VALLEY. AM GENERALLY
TRENDING SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS DUE TO
SOME WEAK MIXING CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS DVL BASIN. REGARDLESS COOLER AIR ADVECTED IN DURING THE DAY
WILL HELP DROP OVERNIGHT LOWS AT LEAST INTO THE MID 20S...PERHAPS
THE TEENS WITH LIGHTER WINDS IN THE FAR EAST.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER NORTHERN TIER OF THE
CONUS AND BRINGS DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION. MOST SOLAR WILL BE ON
SATURDAY AND TEMPS WILL LIKELY CLIMB WELL INTO THE 40S WITH QUITE
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS SETTING UP.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS TO SHIFT
EAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH SHORT WAVE PASSAGE LATE IN THE
WEEKEND EARLY NEXT WEEK. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW LIFTS FROM CENTRAL
ND INTO CANADA. OVERALL AT THIS POINT PCPN AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT WITH
LOW TO OUR NORTH ALTHOUGH COULD SEE A MIX AS COOLER AIR MOVES IN
BEHIND FROPA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE CLOSE TO AVERAGE THROUGH
THE PERIOD
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 104 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
DID BEST ATTEMPT WITH CLEARING/OR LIFTING CIGS INTO VFR FROM WEST TO
EAST. DVL TO LIFT TO VFR SOON WITH HOPEFULLY GFK/FAR LATE AFTERNOON
AND BJI EARLY EVENING. PCPN SO FAR THIS EVENING SPOTTY AND HANDLED
WITH VCSH UNTIL WE GET BETTER DEVELOPMENT.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...SPEICHER/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
103 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 104 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA IS BEGINNING TO SEE SOME SOLAR
BUT THE WESTERN EDGE CONTINUES TO ONLY INCH ITS WAY EASTWARD. DO
NOT ANTICIPATE IT ARRIVING INTO VALLEY ENOUGH TO HELP TEMPS CLIMB
INTO THE 40S. HAVE LOWERED CLOUDY AREAS BY ANOTHER 3 DEG
TODAY...WITH TEMPS IN THE VALLEY RIGHT AROUND 39 OR 40 BY SUNDOWN.
BIGGEST CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPS ALONG THE CLOUD FREE LINE EASTWARD
TO WHERE THE LINE IS LOCATED AT SUNDOWN. WILL LIKELY NEED TO MAKE
CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR EASTERN HALF OF CWA TONIGHT...WILL
ADDRESS AT 4 PM UPDATE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 955 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
ENTIRE CWA CONTINUES TO BE OVERCAST AS WRN EDGE OF STRATOCU DECK
INCHES ITSELF EASTWARD. WILL GO AHEAD AND KNOCK DAYTIME TEMPS DOWN
A DEG OR TWO AS A LATE START TO ANY HEATING IS EXPECTED. NEW NAM
KEEPS PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH LOW CURRENTLY OVER SRN SASK IN CNTRL
DAKOTAS THROUGH 00Z...SO HAVE REMOVED LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
SHEYENNE VALLEY. WILL HOLD OFF ANY PRECIP UNTIL AFT 00Z. WILL
READDRESS TEMPS FOR THIS AFTN WITH NEXT UPDATE AS IT IS A BIT
EARLY TO TELL IMPACTS ON CLOUDS...BUT 2 DEG COOLER THAN PREV CURVE
INDICATED SHOULD BE A DECENT START.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
BACK EDGE OF CLEARING LINE STILL EVER SO SLOWLY CLEARING EAST-
NORTHEAST. STILL NOT PROGGED TO REACH GRAND FORKS AREA TIL VERY
LATE TODAY. SO CLOUDY IDEA WAY TO GO. NO ADJUSTMENT TO HIGHS TODAY
BUT COULD HAVE TO BE NUDGED DOWN A FEW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
UPPER LOW MOVING INTO EASTERN ONTARIO EARLY THIS MORNING. ISSUE
TODAY WILL BE CLOUD TRENDS AND THEN CHANCE OF PRECIP WITH NEXT
WEAK SHORT WAVE FOR LATER TODAY/THIS. WRAPAROUND STRATOCU FIELD
BEHIND UPPER LOW EXTENDS BACK OVER ALL OF SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND
THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH DAKOTA AND ALL OF MINNESOTA. BACK EDGE
HAS BEEN CLEARING SLOWLY AND IS NEAR A STANLEY TO BISMARCK LINE
AND TIMING TOOLS SHOW AT ITS CURRENT RATE IT WILL REACH WRN FCST
AREA BY 15Z AND INTO THE RRV BUT PERHAPS NOT AS LATE AS 21-23Z. USING
THE SFC RIDGE AXIS AS BACK EDGE OF THE STRATOCU AND LATEST HRRR IT
WOULD HAVE CLEARING TRYING TO COME INTO THE VALLEY 18Z-19Z. CLOUDS
WILL PUT A DAMPER ON TEMPS. NEXT SHORT WAVE IS PACIFIC MOISTURE IN
NATURE AND IS MOVING INTO WESTERN MONTANA. THIS WILL MOVE INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE TODAY AND SPREAD THRU ERN ND THIS
EVENING AND INTO MINNESOTA TONIGHT. EXPECT A FEW RAIN SHOWERS WITH
THIS SYSTEM THOUGH WITH MOISTURE PACIFIC IN NATURE AND MOSTLY MID
LEVEL BASED AMOUNTS OF PRECIP WILL BE QUITE LOW...A FEW HUNDREDTHS
AT BEST. TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM IS A BIT SLOWER THAN IT SHOWED ON
PAST DAYS.
BEHIND THIS SHORT WAVE...A FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE NOW WELL NORTH
OF YELLOWKNIFE NWT WILL MOVE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AND TOWARD THE MN
ARROWHEAD THURSDAY AFTN. EXPECT A FAST MOVING BUT SHARP COLD FRONT
TO DROP SOUTH THRU THE AREA THURSDAY ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF GUSTY
NORTH WINDS. MODELS HAVE HAVE TRENDED A BIT COLDER WITH THIS
SYSTEM AND ALSO A BIT FARTHER WEST WITH SFC HIGH PLACEMENT. WILL
KEEP SOME LOW POPS IN THE NORTHEASTERN FCST AREA FOR RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS THURSDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTN. ALSO TRIMMED HIGHS THURSDAY
A FEW DEGREES AND UPPED WINDS A BIT HIGHER THAN BLENDED SOLNS DUE
TO TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND QUICK SHOT OF STRONG 850 MB COLD
ADVECTION.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
850 MB TEMPS DROP TO -10C BY 00Z FRI AS HIGH SETTLES SOUTH INTO
CNTRL ND. EXPECT A CLEAR SKY FOR MOST AREAS WITH COLDEST VALUES
AND LESS WIND IN CNTRL-ERN ND. PAST FEW RUNS HAVE SHOWN A BIT
COLDER AIRMASS...AND WITH THAT DROPPED LOWS FOR FRI AM A FEW
DEGREES...BUT NOT QUITE AS COLD AS SOME MODELS. GENERALLY WENT
15-20F FOR ERN ND AND 20-25 IN MN. FRIDAY WILL BE A CHILLY DAY
WITH SUNSHINE WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE 30S. RETURN FLOW SETS UP LATE
FRI AFTN IN WRN FCST AND SPREAD EAST FRI NIGHT. ALSO SOME INCREASE
IN HIGH CLOUDS FRI NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST.
FOR SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON
SATURDAY WILL KEEP THINGS QUIET PCPN WISE BUT IT SHOULD BE A LITTLE
BREEZY. START TO GET INTO SOUTHWEST FLOW ON SUNDAY AS A 500MB TROUGH
DIGS INTO THE ROCKIES. MODELS DIFFER A LITTLE IN HOW TO HANDLE THE
ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THIS SYSTEM WITH THE ECMWF/GEM SHOWING TWO
WEAK SFC LOWS...ONE OVER WESTERN ND AND THE SECOND OVER EASTERN
COLORADO. GFS HAS ONE COMBINED LOW OVER WESTERN NE. GUIDANCE FAVORS
THE ECMWF/GEM SOLUTION WHICH WOULD HAVE SOME WEAK SHOWERS OVER THE
WESTERN FA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NORTHERN LOW. BY MONDAY
EACH MODEL DIFFERS QUITE A BIT WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING THE NORTHERN
SFC LOW DOMINANT WHILE THE GEM SHOWS THE SOUTHERN ONE MORE SO AND
THE GFS IN BETWEEN. THIS TRANSLATES INTO THE ECMWF BYPASSING MOST OF
THE FA WITH ANY PCPN...THE GFS RIGHT OVER THE FA AND THE GEM OVER
THE SOUTHERN FA. WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THIS WORKS OUT WITH LATER
RUNS. BY TUE DRY WEATHER SHOULD RETURN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 104 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
DID BEST ATTEMPT WITH CLEARING/OR LIFTING CIGS INTO VFR FROM WEST TO
EAST. DVL TO LIFT TO VFR SOON WITH HOPEFULLY GFK/FAR LATE AFTERNOON
AND BJI EARLY EVENING. PCPN SO FAR THIS EVENING SPOTTY AND HANDLED
WITH VCSH UNTIL WE GET BETTER DEVELOPMENT.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...GODON/RIDDLE
AVIATION...VOELKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1251 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
AS OF 1730 UTC...THE WARM FRONT WAS JUST CROSSING THROUGH THE
HIGHWAY 85 CORRIDOR. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WERE ALONG AND IN TRAIL OF
THE WARM FRONT THROUGH GLASGOW IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN EXPECTATIONS FOR PRECIPITATION WITH
THE BEST CHANCES BOUNDED BETWEEN I-94 AND HIGHWAY 2.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 957 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA AS OF 15 UTC
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE INTERACTING WITH
THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EAST TODAY. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY BE BOUNDED BY I-94 AND US
HIGHWAY 2 BASED UPON RADAR TRENDS...THE 00 UTC WRF-ARW/NMM...06
UTC GFS AND 09 UTC SREF. A FEW FLAKES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR
WEST AROUND MIDDAY...OTHERWISE...PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ALL RAIN.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 646 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY SKY GRIDS BASED ON THE
CURRENT OBS/TRENDS OF THE STRATUS SHIELD MOVING INTO EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINING WEATHER ELEMENTS ARE IN GOOD
SHAPE. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
TIMING OF THE EXIT OF THE LARGE CLOUD SHIELD OVER THE STATE...THEN
CHANCES OF SHOWERS TODAY ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST.
CURRENTLY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED FROM NORTHERN
MANITOBA ACROSS THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS AND INTO NEBRASKA. A LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF HUDSON BAY. A
LARGE CLOUD SHIELD OF WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
EXTENDED WESTWARD TO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. TO THE WEST...A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDED ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES FROM A
LOW OVER ALBERTA SOUTHWARD ACROSS MONTANA AND WYOMING.
THE CLOUD DECK CONTINUED TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE HUDSON
BAY LOW CONTINUES MOVING NORTHEAST...AND AS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
RIDGING MOVES INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA FROM THE WEST. LATEST SAT
PICS INDICATE THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CLOUD DECK WAS NEAR
STANLEY...TO MANDAN/BISMARCK...TO NEAR FORT YATES. KEPT THE MENTION
OF PATCHY FOG IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. AS SKIES CLEAR...RESIDUAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPS THAT MAY DROP
QUICKLY...CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SHOULD HAVE THESE CONDITIONS IN THOSE
FEW HOURS BEFORE/AROUND SUNRISE.
THE LATEST HRRR RUNS INDICATE THE CLOUD DECK SHOULD CLEAR THE
JAMESTOWN AREA BEFORE NOON. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE LOW LEVEL
RELATIVE HUMIDITY FIELD OF THE NAM.
FOLLOWING THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST IS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO ENTER WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA BEFORE/AROUND NOON...AND MOVE EAST ACROSS THE STATE DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE STATE.
EXPECTING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA BEGINNING LATE MORNING IN THE WEST...AND KEPT CHANCES IN FOR
ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
LINGERING CHANCES IN THE JAMES VALLEY THIS EVENING.
TONIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW THE EXITING SURFACE LOW...AND WINDS
WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY...GOOD COLD ADVECTION WILL BEGIN...AND A
LARGE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE GREAT PLAINS WILL
GENERATE DRY CONDITIONS OVER NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST AS COOL CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION.
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG A SHORTWAVE TO LIFT
SOMEWHERE INTO EASTERN MONTANA/WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE ECMWF/GEM HAVE WEAKENED THE
SHORTWAVE AND HAVE NUDGED ITS TRACK A LITTLE FARTHER WEST INTO
MONTANA. HOWEVER...THE LATEST GFS IS SLOWER AND STRONGER WITH THE
PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM...PLACING IT OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
MONDAY. IF THE GFS WERE TO VERIFY...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WOULD BE
AN ISSUE OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY.
GIVEN THE MODEL TO MODEL AND RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCIES...WILL
CONTINUE TO FORECAST A MODEL BLEND. GIVEN THE RECENT WEAKENING
ECMWF AND GEM TRENDS...WILL NOT GET TOO EXCITED FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES SUNDAY-MONDAY. IT IS
EXPECTED THAT LATER RUNS OF THE GFS WILL BEGIN TO TREND TOWARDS
THE ECMWF AS IT HAS ALL SEASON. NEVERTHELESS...WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN FORECAST TUESDAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING
DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
A WARM FRONT ACROSS FAR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL
MOVE EAST THROUGH THE DAY. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
WITH THIS FRONT...WITH VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. A COLD FRONT
WILL OVERTAKE THE AREA FROM SOUTHERN CANADA THIS EVENING...WITH
MVFR STRATUS IN TRAIL THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
420 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND REMAIN FOR
THURSDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION FRIDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING...ALONG WITH MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS FOR THE
WEEKEND. A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AREA OF SC ASSOCIATED WITH H5 S/W AND H8 CAA CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE RAP AND HRRR PUSH IT JUST PAST
THE OHIO RIVER BEFORE STALLING OUT. AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND H5
RIDGING BUILDS IN AFT 06Z...EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO ERODE FROM THE
SW....WITH CLEARING MAKING IT INTO THE CVG TRI-STATE REGION AFTER
06Z. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 30S TO ALLOW PATCHY FROST TO FOG. WAS TOSSING AROUND THE IDEA
OF ISSUING A FROST ADVISORY FOR THE CVG TRI-STATE...BUT THE
OFFICES TO WEST WHICH WILL CLEAR OUT SOONER ARE HOLDING OFF...SO
DONT WANT TO STAND OUT AND BE METEOROLOGICALLY INCONSISTENT. WILL
MENTION PATCHY FROST IN THE SW. ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF...EXPECT
THE CLOUDS TO LINGER WHICH WILL PREVENT FROST FROM FORMING.
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 30S TONIGHT...WITH THE UPPER 30S
IN THE SE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD HELP SCATTER OUT ANY LINGERING SC. HOWEVER
ANOTHER H5 S/W DROPPING INTO THE REGION WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS IN
FROM THE WEST.
A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND COLD FRONT WILL WORK TOWARDS THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS SFC CONVERGENCE AND LIFT WILL
INCREASE...BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS...MAINLY TO THE
WESTERN AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT.
FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO A DIGGING H5 S/W WHICH CUTS OFF OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY AND DIGS INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS FRIDAY
NIGHT. MODELS ARE PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS
COMPLEX SYSTEM WILL BRING AN INCREASE CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS ON
FRIDAY. INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA FOR FRIDAY.
ADDED THE MENTION OF THUNDER FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EXTREME
SE WHERE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD POSSIBLY HELP CREATE AN
ISOLATED BOLT OR THUNDER.
AS THE UPPER LOW DROPS S OF THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. COLDER AIR
WILL FILTER IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. 1000-850 CRITICAL
THICKNESS DROPS ENOUGH FOR SNOW TO MIX WITH THE RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT.
RIGHT NOW...AM NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL MANAGE TO WORK BACK INTO THE 50S TOMORROW AS THE
HIGH PASSES OVER. WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW THURSDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP THE
LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S.
ON FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE FA. IT IS LOOKING LIKE TEMPERATURES IN THE NW WONT JUMP TOO
MUCH BEFORE BEGINNING TO FALL BACK DURING THE AFTN. ELSEWHERE THE
DIURNAL TRACE WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL...BUT A NON-DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE TRACE WAS STILL NECESSARY.
NLY WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY. UPPED THE GUSTS
TO THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30. TEMPERATURES IN SE COULD DROP BELOW
FREEZING FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT PCPN SHOULD HAVE ENDING BEFORE THAT
OCCURS. IT IS A LITTLE EARLY TO ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH. IN THE
E...LINGERING PCPN ALONG WITH THE CLOUDS AND WIND WILL KEEP LOWS
IN THE MID 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SATURDAY STARTS OUT WITH THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON ATOP THE OHIO
VALLEY. LOW PRESSURE IN THE MID ATLANTIC AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE CENTRAL U.S. ARE COMBINING TO CREATE STRONG NORTH WINDS THAT
WILL PULL COLD AIR OVER THE REGION...HIGHS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE 40S AND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD SEE
LINGERING SHOWERS MIX WITH SNOW BEFORE THEY END FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
SUNDAY MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE COLDER THAN SATURDAY
MORNING WITH THE CORE OF THE HIGH SETTLING OVER THE AREA AT 12Z.
GUIDANCE WOULD HAVE HAD ME RAISE THE READINGS THAT WERE IN THE 25-28
DEG RANGE FOR THIS TIME FRAME. I WAS HESITANT TO FORECAST A RISE IN
TEMPERATURES AND DECIDED TO KEEP THE PREVIOUS COOLER FORECAST IN
PLAY FOR ANOTHER DAY. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR AND AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP STARTING TUESDAY WITH A WARMING TREND
THAT WILL PUT READINGS MORE TOWARDS NORMAL VALUES...SLIGHTLY WARMER
ON OVERNIGHT LOWS.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON TUESDAY. MODELS
DIVERGE IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM. INITIAL FORECAST HAD THE
FRONT CROSS EARLY TUESDAY AND HAVE DRY WEATHER OVER THE NORTHERN
OHIO VALLEY. LATEST EUROPEAN MODEL COMES THROUGH WITH AN ELONGATED
NE-SW TROUGH WITH A MID LEVEL STRONG SHORTWAVE RIDING NORTHEAST
ALONG IT ON WEDNESDAY. THE FORECAST BLENDED THE TWO WITH AN INITIAL
NOD TO THE GFS. FEEL THAT THIS MAY NEED TO LEAN TOWARDS THE WETTER
AND MORE DYNAMIC EURO MODEL SOLUTION IN FUTURE FORECASTS.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
STRATOCUMULUS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE TERMINALS EARLY IN THE TAF
PERIOD. THESE CEILINGS WILL PERSIST WELL AFTER 00Z. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WHEN CLOUDS WILL START TO SCATTER WITH CURRENT THINKING
THAT IT WILL BE CLOSER TO 12Z. THIS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IF ANY
IMPACT THOUGH AS CLOUD BASES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 3000 FT.
SO VFR SHOULD PREVAIL. SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER 00Z AND THEN
BECOME LIGHT FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES IN.
OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY MORNING...THEN MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO THE
REMAINDER OF SATURDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEDFORD OR
252 PM PDT WED OCT 29 2014
.SHORT TERM...AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND IS BRINGING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH THIS EVENING
AND WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS INTO THE AREA, MAINLY WEST OF
THE CASCADES IN OREGON. MODELS HAVE DONE POORLY WITH REPRESENTING
THE PRECIPITATION AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT AND THERE
REMAINS UNCERTAINTY ON HOW WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL BE AS THE FRONT
LINGERS OVER THE AREA. THEN OVERNIGHT THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE
TO LIFT NORTH AND A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE COOS AND
DOUGLAS COAST AREA. THIS WILL BRING CONTINUED AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS TO THE COAST AND INLAND, MAINLY INTO INTERIOR DOUGLAS
COUNTY.
THEN MODELS ARE ON TRACK FOR A FRONT TO SLOWLY APPROACH THE COAST
THURSDAY AND SLOWLY PUSHING INLAND LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING BREEZY AND GUSTY
WINDS TO THE COAST, SHASTA VALLEY AND SUMMER LAKE AREAS AS WELL AS
TO THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. STRONGEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE SHASTA AND SUMMER LAKE AREAS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
40 MPH. BASED ON THE 12Z MODEL RUNS, RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
ALONG THE COAST BY THURSDAY EVENING...THEN SLOWLY SPREAD INLAND
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER AREAS FROM THE
CASCADES WEST. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH INTO THE CASCADES
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THEN EASTWARD FRIDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. THE NAM
IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER TO PUSH THE FRONT INLAND AND EAST OF THE
CASCADES FRIDAY EVENING THAN THE GFS AND ECMWF AND SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR RAIN LINGERING ALONG AREAS JUST WEST OF THE CASCADES
DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS FRIDAY.
THE MAIN IMPACT OF THE RAIN WILL BE FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES ON
HALLOWEEN EVENING, WITH RAIN EXPECTED FROM THE CASCADES EAST IN
THE EVENING. WEST OF THE CASCADES, EXPECT RAIN DURING THE DAY
FOLLOWED BY SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE AREA DURING THE EVENING AS A
COLD TROUGH PUSHES INLAND BEHIND THE FRONT. RAINFALL MAY BE SLOW
TO TAPER OFF IN THE EVENING IN WESTERN VALLEYS NEAR THE CASCADES
SUCH AS THE ROGUE AND SHASTA VALLEYS. ALSO SOME WEST SIDE AREAS
MAY SEE A BRIEF BREAK IN RAIN BEFORE LIGHT SHOWERS BEGIN FRIDAY
EVENING AND NIGHT. SHOWER ACTIVITY BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY EVENING
AND NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED AND MAINLY LIGHT AND MODELS
INDICATE MUCH OF THE ENERGY WITH THIS TROUGH WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF
THE AREA THE TROUGH DEEPENS. COOL CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THOUGH
WITH ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY FRIDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED TO LOWER TO 4500 TO 5000 FT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
SO EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON THE
HIGHER MOUNTAIN PASSES.
THE COLD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA SATURDAY WITH
SOME CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS. THEN THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT
EAST SATURDAY EVENING WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND BRINGING DRYING CONDITIONS
WITH CLEARING SKIES.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE COLDEST MORNING OF THE
SEASON THUS FAR WEST OF THE CASCADES IS EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING AS
THE UPPER TROUGH DEPARTS TO THE EAST AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. THIS WILL PRESENT THE OPPORTUNITY
FOR FROST OVER SOME OF THE VALLEYS IN NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA AND
SOUTHWEST OREGON. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT WE ARE WELL PAST THE
NORMAL DATE OF THE FIRST KILLING FREEZE IN MANY AREAS...SO THIS
SHOULDN`T BE UNEXPECTED. MEDFORD`S NORMAL DATE OF A FIRST FREEZE
(TEMPERATURES <= 32F) IS OCTOBER 18TH. RIGHT NOW, WE ARE GOING WITH
LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S IN MANY LOCATIONS. A LOT WILL DEPEND ON
THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND WHETHER FOG CAN FORM IN THE VALLEYS
PRIOR TO SUNRISE. WE THINK AREAS NORTH OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE AND THE
COAST ARE SAFE SINCE THERE SHOULD STILL BE PLENTY OF CLOUDS. BUT
ENOUGH CLEARING MAY OCCUR SOUTH OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE FOR FROST TO
FORM. KEEP CHECKING BACK FOR UPDATES.
MODELS ARE NOW IN AGREEMENT THAT HEIGHTS RISE SUNDAY WITH MOST AREAS
DRYING OUT. THERE IS JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST
AND NORTH OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS NEAR 60 OVER THE WEST SIDE AND IN
THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 EAST SIDE.
THE ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE PACIFIC EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES A BIT, ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING
OF FEATURES. THE 12Z GFS40 DEPICTS A FAST-MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM WITH
PRECIPITATION REACHING THE COAST BY MONDAY MORNING THEN MOVING
INLAND TO THE EAST SIDE BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS IS FASTER THAN ITS
PREVIOUS RUNS AND WAS A DEVIATION FROM ITS 00Z ENSEMBLES, WHICH WERE
SLOWER BRINGING IT ONSHORE. THE 12Z ECMWF MEANWHILE IS ABOUT 12
HOURS SLOWER...WITH PRECIPITATION HOLDING OFF UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT
THEN SPREADING INLAND TUESDAY. IT IS NOTABLE THAT THE ECMWF HAS SPED
UP FROM PREVIOUS RUNS. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY, THE GOING FORECAST
WAS LARGELY UNCHANGED, WHICH KEEPS THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS NORTHWEST
SECTIONS WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE OR NIL POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST.
EXPECT THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL STALL SOMEWHERE NEAR THE OR/CA BORDER
TUESDAY, THEN LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THIS SHOULD DECREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM SOUTHEAST
TO NORTHWEST. OVERALL, TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE
CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS. SPILDE
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 29/18Z TAF CYCLE...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTH AND WEST SECTIONS OF THE CWA THE REST OF
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN ALONG WITH A MIX OF MVFR/IFR CIGS AND WIDESPREAD
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. THE FRONT SHOULD LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA
AROUND SUNRISE THURSDAY, SO IFR CIGS WILL LIKELY PREVAIL IN THE WEST
SIDE VALLEYS THROUGH LATE MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. EAST OF THE CASCADES AND IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, PATCHY
IFR FOG/CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AROUND DAYBREAK THURSDAY, BUT SHOULD
BECOME VFR BY MID-MORNING. BREEZY SOUTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP SHASTA
VALLEY AND EAST SIDE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SPILDE
&&
.MARINE...UPDATED 230 PM PDT WED 29 OCT 2014...A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE TOWARDS THE WATERS TONIGHT AND SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD
OF IT. THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST WINDS WILL STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT,
BUT THE LATEST RUC SHOWS WINDS COULD REACH SMALL CRAFT AROUND 12Z
THURSDAY OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN WATERS, BUT SUSPECT IT MAY BE
OVERDONE. IN FACT, THE NAM SHOWS A WAVE FORMING ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THURSDAY WHICH WOULD LEAD TO LESS WIND. FOR NOW WE`LL HOLD
OFF ON ANY HEADLINES AND SEE WHAT THE NEXT MODEL RUN SHOWS THIS
EVENING. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INLAND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH WEAK LOW
PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE WATERS FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS
SOUTHWEST OF THE WATERS SATURDAY. THE MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT
SHOWING INCREASING LONG PERIOD SWELL FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT IT WON`T LAST
LONG WITH SWELL HEIGHTS DECREASING ON SATURDAY. WEST TO NORTHWEST
SWELL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. -PETRUCELLI
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
$$
CC/MD/MAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
1238 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST
TODAY...WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING. STRATUS IS SLOW TO
CLEAR EARLY THIS MORNING AS WE REMAIN MORE MIXED THAN MOST MODELS
SHOW. THE RAP SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THINGS...AND THUS
FOLLOWED CLOSEST TO IT AND SLOWED DOWN EXIT OF CLOUD COVER THIS
MORNING. THE BACK EDGE OF THE STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH
EAST AND BY LATE MORNING MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY. WILL
BE ANOTHER COOL DAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S OVER
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA TO THE MID AND UPPER 50S WEST OF THE JAMES
RIVER.
AN UPPER WAVE WILL QUICKLY PUSH ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THUS EXPECTING INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. BEST QG FORCING DOES GO OVER OUR CWA...HOWEVER BEST
MOISTURE STAYS TO THE NORTH. THUS THINKING WE MAINLY JUST SEE CLOUDS
AND VIRGA...WITH MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION NOT ABLE TO PUSH THROUGH
THE DRY LOWER LEVELS. HOWEVER FORCING IS STRONG ENOUGH THAT CAN NOT
RULE OUT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS REACHING THE GROUND...AND THUS EXPANDED
THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO INCLUDE MOST LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER. GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY
STAY IN THE 40S MOST OF THE NIGHT...HOWEVER WITH LIGHT
WINDS...READINGS IN ANY CLEAR POCKETS WILL DROP INTO THE 30S. AND
WITH MORE WIDESPREAD CLEARING EXPECTED LATE THINK MOST AREAS WILL
SEE LOWS IN THE 30S. COLD FRONT WILL MAKE IT TO ABOUT INTERSTATE 29
BY 12Z...AND WITH INCREASED MIXING BEHIND THE FRONT...PROBABLY WILL
SEE A SLIGHT WARMING AND A BIT OF A NORTHWESTERLY BREEZE DEVELOP
LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE WEST.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
THURSDAY IS HIGHLIGHTED BY A HASTENING OF THE PACE OF THE NEXT
SURGE OF COLD AIR ADVECTION. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER WAVE RAPIDLY
DEPARTS BUT IN ITS WAKE...IS A STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVING DOWN FROM
WESTERN ONTARIO TO NORTHERN MN. COLD HIGH PRESSURE...CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 1035 AND 1040MB FILLS IN ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THEREFORE THURSDAY LOOKS
LIKE A DAY SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAD YESTERDAY...BLUSTERY...COOL...
AND WHAT COULD BE PLENTY OF COLD AIR ADVECTION STRATUS FOR MANY
AREAS OTHER THAN POSSIBLY OUR MO RIVER VALLEY AREAS. THEREFORE
NOTCHED UP THE NORTHERLY WINDS AND FOR TEMPERATURES...THE VARIOUS
GUIDANCE VALUES HAVE MARKEDLY COOLED THE HIGHS OFF. NOTICED THAT
THE AFTERNOON 900-850MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE NOT A
WHOLE LOT DIFFERENT THAN WHAT THEY WERE YESTERDAY. SO BLENDED THE
VERY CHILLY BIAS CORRECTED GEM GLOBAL AND BIAS CORRECTED MAV INTO
THE CONSENSUS GUIDANCE. THIS COOLED HIGHS OFF INTO THE UPPER 40S
NORTH TO MID 50S SOUTH. BUT IF THE STRATUS GETS AS INTRUSIVE AS IT
WAS ON TUESDAY...THEN EVEN THESE HIGHS ARE PROBABLY A CATEGORY
TOO WARM.
LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT ARE TRICKY...IN THAT THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA
WILL CAUSE SOME LINGERING MIXING POTENTIAL EAST OF INTERSTATE 29.
IN ADDITION...THERE IS A QUESTION OF HOW QUICKLY THE FORECAST
STRATUS WILL EXIT...AT LEAST IN OUR EASTERN ZONES. WOULD NOT BE AT
ALL SURPRISED IF THE STRATUS LINGERS LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED...
THEREFORE DID NOT GO WITH THE COLDEST GUIDANCE VALUES ON THURSDAY
EXCEPT IN OUR FAR WEST. CONSENSUS VALUES LOOKED PRETTY GOOD FOR
OUR EASTERN ZONES...BUT HAVE CLOSE TO 20 DEGREES FOR CHAMBERLAIN
AND HURON.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY EXHIBIT A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER FLOW WITH
STRONG RIDGING IN THE MIDDLE PART OF THE COUNTRY. FRIDAY WILL BE
COOL ONCE AGAIN BUT WITH MUCH LESS WIND AS THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. BUT THEN A TIGHT GRADIENT WILL RETURN
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH STOUT WINDS OFF THE SURFACE. WINDY
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 35 MPH SHOULD EASILY PREVAIL ON SATURDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES STILL BELOW NORMAL AS THE COOL HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO THE EAST INFLUENCES OUR WEATHER FOR ANOTHER DAY. THE
GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER INDEX WILL LIKELY REACH THE VERY HIGH
CATEGORY ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...AND WILL BE CONVEYED IN
THE FORTHCOMING HWO. FOR SUNDAY...CONSENSUS TEMPERATURES LOOKED A
LITTLE COOL GIVEN THE ECMWF AND GFS 900MB TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND WEST OF I 29. THEREFORE BLENDED THE MORE MILD BIAS
CORRECTED ECMWF VALUES INTO THE MIX TO BUMP THE READINGS UP A
CATEGORY OR TWO.
THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE A BIT IN HOW THEY HANDLE
THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. AT THIS TIME...THE ECMWF LOOKS A LITTLE BETTER THAN
THE GFS. BUT AT ANY RATE...DECENT RAIN CHANCES LOOK MINIMAL AS THE
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE TAKES OVER AND CUTS OFF THE DEEP MOISTURE.
TEMPERATURES LOOK UNEVENTFUL AND CLOSE TO NORMAL ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...BUT MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE PRETTY BREEZY AGAIN WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD...
BUT LOWER CLOUDS FEATURING MVFR CEILINGS WILL CYCLE SOUTHWARD
AFTER 12Z BEHIND COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THERE WILL ALSO BE A
DISTURBANCE WITH MID LEVEL VFR CLOUDS WHICH WILL PASS ACROSS
THE AREA BETWEEN 02Z AND 10Z. LIFT FORCING WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH
TO RESULT IN AREAS OF PRECIPITATION...BUT MOST IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ALOFT. SINCE WILL BE OPERATIONALLY INSIGNIFICANT...HAVE NOT
MENTIONED IN THIS SET OF TAFS.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CHENARD
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...CHAPMAN