Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 10/28/14


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RENO NV
1049 PM PDT SAT OCT 25 2014 .UPDATE... WINDS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE AROUND THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THE LATEST CHECK OF THE LAKE TAHOE BUOYS SHOWED WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE. GIVEN THESE DECREASING WINDS WE WILL ALLOW THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 11 PM. ELSEWHERE GUSTY WINDS TO NEAR 35 MPH ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN THE MORE WIND PRONE LOCATIONS EAST OF THE SIERRA LATE THIS EVENING. THESE WILL WILL DECREASE AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT. 20 && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 755 PM PDT SAT OCT 25 2014/ UPDATE... UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING INTO CA NOW. THE SFC FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH MOST OF THE REGION AND WE HAVE GOTTEN INTO THE COLDER AIR. WITH THE FRONT TO EAST MOST OF OUR STRONGEST WINDS HAVE DECREASED BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. A PLUME OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS STILL CREATING SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER NRN CA. UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES FROM THE TAHOE BASIN NORTHWARD IS HELPING DEVELOP HEAVIER PCPN IN SOME SPOTS BUT IT IS NOT WIDESPREAD. UNDER THE HEAVIEST PCPN SNOW LEVELS ARE LIKELY TO DROP TO AROUND 6500 FEET LATER TONIGHT WITH AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE AT THE HIGHER PASSES FROM ECHO SUMMIT NORTH. WITH THE DECREASE IN WINDS HAVE OPTED TO CANCEL THE WIND ADVISORIES EARLY...EXCEPT THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR TAHOE. THERE THE BUOYS ARE STARTING TO INCREASE AGAIN. THIS WILL RUN THROUGH 11 PM. FOR PYRAMID LAKE THE OBSERVATION AT ANAHO ISLAND STILL SHOWS GUSTS CLOSE TO 50 MPH...BUT THE LAKE IS CLOSED AFTER SUNSET SO WILL NOT ISSUE A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A FEW WIND PRONE AREAS WITH GUSTS TOPPING 45 MPH FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT THESE WILL BE VERY ISOLATED IN NATURE. RH VALUES ARE INCREASING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS WELL. ALTHOUGH WIND GUSTS IN SOME AREAS MAY CONTINUE ABOVE 30 MPH...THE STRONGEST GUSTS HAVE PASSED AND THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY WILL SPELL AN END TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THEREFORE...THE RED FLAG WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 8 PM. 20 PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 PM PDT SAT OCT 25 2014/ SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INLAND TONIGHT, BRINGING GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH LIGHT RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. COOLER CONDITIONS WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED EARLY SUNDAY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. MILD AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN NEXT WEEK, WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES BY NEXT WEEKEND. SHORT TERM... COLD FRONTAL PRECIPITATION BAND HAS MOVED INTO WESTERN NEVADA AND THE EASTERN SIERRA AROUND LAKE TAHOE AND ALPINE COUNTY. THE PRECIPITATION HAS FALLEN APART AS PROGGED BY MODELS NORTH OF RENO. HOWEVER, PRECIPITATION HELD TOGETHER BETTER THAN EXPECTED FOR RENO SOUTH TO MINDEN MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 395. NEAR THE CREST WEST OF LAKE TAHOE THE PRECIPITATION WAS HEAVY ENOUGH TO BRIEFLY DRIVE SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO BETWEEN 6500 AND 7000 FEET AND CAUSE SLUSHY ACCUMULATIONS ON INTERSTATE 80 (THAT HAS SINCE MELTED). OUTSIDE OF THE BRIEF LOWERING, SNOW LEVELS ARE RUNNING BETWEEN ABOUT 7500 AND 8500 FEET. AS SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR ALOFT FILTERS IN WITH THIS SYSTEM`S TROUGH AXIS TONIGHT AND PRECIPITATION TURNS SHOWERY SNOW LEVELS WILL SLOWLY FALL TO AS LOW AS 6000-6500 FEET ALTHOUGH MOST PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF BY THEN. IN ANY CASE, BURSTS OF SNOW SHOWERS COULD CERTAINLY CAUSE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS AND SLICK ROADS AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS FROM TAHOE NORTH OVERNIGHT. WIND-WISE, SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH WERE WIDESPREAD TODAY. WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO FALL OFF BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BUT ARE STILL HOWLING OUT IN THE BASIN AND RANGE WITH STRONG WEST WINDS DRIVING A LARGE AREA OF DUST OFF THE CARSON SINK (EASTERN PERSHING/CHURCHILL COUNTIES). FOR TONIGHT, THERE IS ONE MORE DISTURBANCE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH. AT THIS TIME, IT IS FIRING UP NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND EVEN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA. THIS IMPULSE WILL MOVE THROUGH FAR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS EVENING AND FIRE UP ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS FOR NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA, MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. THIS COULD BRING LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE 6500-7000 FEET. ELSEWHERE, RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN A BIT GUSTY FOR MANY AREAS THIS EVENING BEFORE DYING OFF CONSIDERABLY FOR VALLEYS AS A WEAK SURFACE HIGH BUILD IN. SUNDAY MORNING A FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS MAY LINGER WELL NORTH OF I-80 BEFORE AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO SLOWLY BUILD OVERHEAD THROUGH MONDAY. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A BIT BELOW AVERAGE AS A COOL SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE GREAT BASIN. SNYDER LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION AT THE BEGINNING ON THE LONG TERM ON TUESDAY. RATHER QUIET WEATHER OVERALL TUESDAY-THURSDAY. ONE EXCEPTION IS POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT WARM ADVECTION PRECIP NORTH OF SUSANVILLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A FILAMENT OF MOISTURE BREAKING OFF A MORE SIGNIFICANT ATMOSPHERIC RIVER OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THIS PRECIP IS ONLY MEDIUM - MAINLY DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN HOW FAR SOUTH THE MOISTURE PLUME WILL GET. MAIN INTEREST IN THE LONG TERM IS INCREASING LIKELIHOOD OF AN APPRECIABLE TROF MOVING INTO CA/NV FRIDAY-SATURDAY. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ECMWF/GFS BUT OVERALL THE BIG PICTURE PATTERN IS SIMILAR, LEADING TO MEDIUM FORECAST CONFIDENCE WHICH AT THIS LEAD TIME ISN`T BAD. NAEFS ANOMALY CHARTS ALSO PICKING UP ON THIS TROUGH WHICH HELPS INCREASE CONFIDENCE IN THE PATTERN VERIFYING. OVERALL CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE MINIMAL. CHANCE OF RAIN FRIDAY-SATURDAY WITH SNOW LEVELS FALLING FROM 10KFT TO 6-7KFT. QPF/TIMING ARE THE MAIN UNCERTAINTIES: ECMWF LIGHTER QPF BUT FASTER WHILE GFS HAS SOME PERIODS OF HEAVY PRECIP IN THE SIERRA BUT IT`S SLOWER. NO REASON TO FAVOR ONE OUTCOME OVER THE OTHER RIGHT NOW. STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY GIVEN SFC GRADIENT AND 700MB FLOW 40-55 KTS DEPICTED IN THE GFS; TO A LESSER EXTENT IN THE ECMWF. CS AVIATION... NOT EXACTLY THE MOST PLEASANT DAY FOR FLYING WITH STRONG WINDS AND SHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGH MID-EVENING. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE TAFS IS MEDIUM. WINDS HAVE BEEN SOMEWHAT ERRATIC AROUND RNO/CXP WITH PRECIP SPILLING OVER AND SWITCHING WIND DIRECTION AT SFC TO W/NW. S/SW WINDS IN FOOTHILLS YIELDING LLWS WHICH HAS BEEN REPORTED BY RECENT ARRIVALS INTO RNO. NOT SURE HOW LONG THIS WESTERLY WIND WILL LAST SO HAVE USED TEMPO IN TAF. THE NEXT UNCERTAINTY IS POTENTIAL FOR MOUNTAIN WAVE AND DOWNSLOPE WIND ENHANCEMENTS AT RNO/CXP FROM 23Z-03Z AS WINDS ALOFT TURN MORE W/SW. IF THIS HAPPENS WINDS AT THE SURFACE WOULD TURN MORE SSE BUT JUST OFF THE SURFACE STRONG SW WINDS OF 50KTS WOULD RESULT IN APPRECIABLE LLWS CONTINUING AT RNO/CXP. HRRR SHOWING THIS SIGNATURE CLEARLY IN LATEST RUNS. OVERALL THE PROBABILITY OF THIS SCENARIO PANNING OUT IS ABOUT 50-60% SO HAVE INCLUDED IN THE 18Z TAFS. OTHERWISE MAIN ISSUE IS PRECIP IN THE SIERRA AND IN FAR WESTERN NEVADA WEST OF HWY 395. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR GUIDANCE - BETWEEN NOW AND 03Z IS OPTIMAL TIME FOR COLD FRONTAL RAIN TO IMPACT AIRFIELDS INCLUDING TRK/TVL/BRIDGEPORT. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION IS A GIVEN IN THE SIERRA AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT DAYBREAK SUNDAY IN THE COOLER POST FRONTAL AIRMASS. IF SKIES CLEAR ENOUGH FOG IS POSSIBLE AT TRK LATE TONIGHT SINCE THEY DID GET A BURST OF RAIN THIS AFTERNOON. CS FIRE WEATHER... STRONG WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES IN. INCREASING MOISTURE OVER THE SIERRA AND ALONG THE SIERRA FRONT HAVE HELPED TO INCREASE THE HUMIDITY IN THE RENO-CARSON CITY-MINDEN AREAS. THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE WESTERN NEVADA SIERRA FRONT WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 3PM THIS AFTERNOON. FURTHER EAST, DRIER CONDITIONS AND STRONG WINDS WILL KEEP THE RED FLAG WARNING IN PLACE THROUGH 8PM THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH WESTERN NEVADA THIS EVENING WITH DIMINISHING WINDS, GOOD RECOVERY AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. HOON && .REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NV...NONE. CA...NONE. && $$ FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT... HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
1118 AM MDT SUN OCT 26 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1118 AM MDT SUN OCT 26 2014 NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WE WILL BE WAITING FOR THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE STATE TO INCREASE AS ADVERTISED BY THE MODELS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS CURRENTLY OVER NORTHEASTERN NEVADA AND HEADING OUR WAY. LIGHTNING DETECTION HAS NOT RECORDED ANY THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SINCE 5 AM THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...SINCE THERE WAS SOME LIGHTNING OVERNIGHT...WILL LEAVE THE MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW. THE IDEA OF MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT ALSO SEEMS APPROPRIATE...AS THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING RAPIDLY ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT ) ISSUED AT 330 AM MDT SUN OCT 26 2014 THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO INCOMING TROF OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING MOUNTAIN TOP FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST THIS MORNING. OBSERVATIONS ALREADY SHOWING AN INCREASE IN WINDS...AND 88D SHOWING WIND SIGNATURE DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN BOULDER COUNTY. CROSS SECTIONS FROM NAM/RAP SHOW STRONGEST WINDS BETWEEN 12Z-15Z WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAIN PASSES AND WIND PRONE EAST SLOPES. CURRENTLY STRONGEST WINDS ARE OVER MOUNTAIN PASSES WITH SPEEDS IN THE 40-50 MPH RANGE. EXPECT SOME OF THESE STRONGER WINDS TO EXPAND AND INCREASE DOWN THE FOOTHILLS AS DECENT STABLE LAYER DEVELOPS IN THE 750-700MB LAYER AFTER 12Z. WINDS WILL DECREASE BY AFTERNOON WITH DISSIPATION OF STABLE LAYER. INITIAL MOISTURE WITH THIS UPCOMING SYSTEM IS RATHER DRY WITH MOST OF THE MOISTURE IS IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. EXPECT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME INSTABILITY AND A BIT BETTER MOISTURE WITH THE JET AND AS TROF APPROACHES. SEEING QUITE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER NORTHERN UTAH ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN THE COOL DOWN THIS AFTERNOON WITH READINGS IN THE 70S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS. NO RECORD TEMPS EXPECTED TODAY. BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE TONIGHT OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH SOME WEAK QG UPWARD FORCING AS TROF AXIS NEARS LATER TONIGHT. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS STILL LOOK TO BE IN THE 2-5 INCH RANGE...HIGHEST IN ZONE 31. PRECIP CHANCES MORE IFFY OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS AS MODELS ARE QUITE VARIED ON MOISTURE AVAILABILITY. GFS IS THE WETTEST AND NAM IS THE DRIEST. BEST CHANCES APPEAR TO BE OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS WITH THE BEST UPWARD FORCING AND MOISTURE ARE OVERLAYED. THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO LATER TONIGHT AS WIND SHIFT NORTH AND NORTHEAST. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 223 AM MDT SUN OCT 26 2014 THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE MONDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD...AND SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. AFTER LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES ALOFT AS WELL AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS...LOWERED THE MAX TEMPERATURES OVER THE PLAINS BY A FEW DEGREES. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY...WHICH WILL ACTUALLY BE BACK DOWN NEAR OR JUST BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. DOWNWARD QG VERTICAL VELOCITY WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY HOWEVER BEING UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET WILL HELP A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN COLORADO THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...CROSS SECTIONS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE AIRMASS DRYING OUT QUICKLY THROUGH THE DAY. WESTERLY MOUNTAIN TOP FLOW TRANSITIONING TO NORTHWEST AS THE TROUGH PASSES WILL HELP WRING OUT ANY REMAINING MOISTURE OVER THE MOUNTAINS. COULD SEE ANOTHER INCH OR TWO AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH LOWER AMOUNTS AT ELEVATIONS DOWN TO ABOUT 6500 FEET. THE SYSTEM WILL EXIT QUICKLY WITH SKIES CLEARING IN THE EVENING. THE CONCERN THAT NIGHT IS FOR NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES HOWEVER...SEEMS AS THOUGH A 700 MB LEE TROUGH MAY FORM AS WELL AS SOME HIGHER CLOUDS MOVING IN AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS MAY HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM COOLING TOO MUCH...INCREASED TEMPERATURES OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND NEAR THE FOOTHILLS AND URBAN CORRIDOR SLIGHTLY. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH MODEL TRENDS FOR A NEED FOR A HIGHLIGHT. TUESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL FEATURE AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL..ALTHOUGH A RIPPLE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING IN COOLER AIR FOR THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER BIG WARM UP. DOUBT WE`LL SEE A RETURN OF 80+ DEGREE DAYS FOR THE PLAINS. LONG TERM MODELS SEEM TO WANT TO BRING IN THE NEXT SYSTEM SOMETIME ON NEXT SUNDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 1118 AM MDT SUN OCT 26 2014 WINDS AT KDEN HAVE GONE TO A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST COMPONENT WITH SOME GUSTS AT TIMES. SEEMS TO BE RELATED TO A SURGE COMING OFF THE PALMER DIVIDE. THIS SHOULD LAST FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO...THEN RETURN TO LIGHTER WESTERLIES AS CROSS SECTIONS SHOW DEEP...LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE NAM AND RAP KEEP THE DENVER AREA DRY OVERNIGHT...PROBABLY DUE TO WESTERLY...DOWNSLOPING FLOW OVERCOMING THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FAST MOVING UPPER DISTURBANCE. MAIN EMPHASIS IN THE TAF PRODUCT WILL BE TRYING TO DEFINE DETAILS IN THE WINDS. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...DANKERS SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN LONG TERM...KRIEDERMAN AVIATION...DANKERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
725 PM EDT MON OCT 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...AS A MILDER AIR MASS BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BRIEFLY BE ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE A COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID WEEK PERIOD. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 730 PM EDT...A QUIET COOL EVENING AS A FEW HIGH CLOUDS...THE RESULT OF WARM AIR ADVECTION...WERE STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION. THE AREA WAS UNDER A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WITH LITTLE OR NO WIND. THEREFORE...TEMPERATURES WERE DROPPING QUICKLY BACK INTO THE 40S IN MOST AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 40 EVERYWHERE. WE EXPECT RADIATIONAL COOLING THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT. THEN...AS HIGH CLOUDS THICKEN AND THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE...A SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL KICK IN (AT LEAST THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS). TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN STEADY FROM THIS POINT ON...OR MIGHT ACTUALLY RISE A COUPLE OF DEGREES BEFORE THE SUN DOES. THERE WAS A MULTI-CONVECTIVE SYSTEM ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. HOWEVER...THE STRONGEST ISENTROPIC LIFT (DRIVEN BY WARM AIR ADVECTION AND AN UPPER LEVEL JET MAX) WAS MOVING NORTH OF OUR REGION. WE BELIEVE ANY REAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACITIVITY SHOULD STAY TO OUR NORTH. THE LATEST RUC ACTUALLY INDICATED SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY MIGHT SKIM OUR NORTHERN AREAS AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY. FOR NOW...NOT ENOUGH REASON TO TINKER WITH TUESAY/S FORECAST. THEREFORE FOR THIS UPDATE...VERY LITTLE TO UPDATE. SHOWALTER VALUES OVERNIGHT ARE INITIALLY NEAR 0C ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL NY AND THOSE VALUES GRADUALLY FILL AS IT APPROACHES OUR REGION. AT THIS TIME...WE WILL CONTINUE TO WITHHOLD THE MENTION OF THUNDER AS WE MONITOR UPSTREAM TRENDS. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... TUESDAY...WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH AS OUR REGION BECOMES WELL ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR. SHOULD BE A SPLENDID DAY UNFOLDING AS STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT H850 TEMPS TO BETWEEN +11C TO +15C. COMBINE THAT WITH SUNSHINE AND DOWNSLOPING...VALLEY LOCATIONS COULD ONCE AGAIN OBSERVE NEAR OR JUST A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE 70F WITH 60S ELSEWHERE /AND BASED ON TEMPS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY AFTERNOON...THIS COULD EASILY BE OBTAINED/. TUESDAY NIGHT...AS THE PREVIOUS EXCELLENT AFD...VARIABLE TIMING REMAINS FROM THE NCEP MODEL GUIDANCE WITH THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A COUPLE RUMBLES OF THUNDER WITH THE COLD FRONT. THERE IS DECENT LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH THE FRONT AS S/SW LLJ OF 40-50 KTS WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION SOME GULF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. LATEST TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE ARE SUGGESTING THE FROPA WILL BE A BIT SLOWER TO CLEAR THE REGION. UPPER FLOW REMAINS POSITIVELY TILTED WITH A WEAK SURFACE PERTURBATION/REFLECTING DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL NY OVERNIGHT. SO WE WILL SLOW DOWN POPS/WX GRIDS AND KEEP MOST OF THE NIGHT UNDER SCT-LIKELY POPS. LOWS TEMPS WILL BE A BIT BALMY IN THE LOWER TO M50S...EXCEPT SOME U40S OVER THE SRN DACKS. WEDNESDAY...AS A SLOWER FROPA IS EXPECTED...WE WILL SLOW DOWN THE EXIT OF THIS FRONT AND KEEP THE MENTION OF POPS/WX FOR THE EASTERN 1/2 OF THE CWFA IN THE MORNING. MEANWHILE...SLOW ADVECTING COLDER AIR WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE DAY. AS THIS COOLER AIR MOVES ACROSS THE WARM WATERS OF THE GREAT LAKES...AMPLE STRATUS WILL REDEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY. THESE VARIABLES WILL RESULT IN A COOLER DAY THAN TUESDAYS WITH HIGHS AROUND 60F FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND 50S FOR MOST OTHER LOCATIONS /SOME UPPER 40S FOR THE DACKS/. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT CLEARS THE REGION WITH STRONGER PUSH COLD ADVECTION DURING THE EVENING HOURS. H850 TEMPS FALL TO 0C ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES TO -4C NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. THIS WILL TRIGGER SOME ISOLD LAKE EFFECT/INDUCED SHOWERS OVER THE SRN DACKS...SOME OF WHICH MAY MIX WITH SNOW. SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO THE WEST-CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE M30S TO L40S FOR MOST OF THE REGION. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OFF MAINLY QUIET AND MAINLY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST TO OUR SOUTH THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THE AIR WILL BE COOL ENOUGH AND BREEZY ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST SOME LAKE ENHANCED PRECIPITATION POSSIBLY COMING OFF LAKE ONTARIO...MAINLY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY. TEMPERATURES LOOK WARM ENOUGH FOR ANY PRECIPITATION TO BE MAINLY RAIN WITH ANY SNOW CONFINED TO THE HIGHEST TERRAIN. ANY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ON THURSDAY WILL BE LIGHT. MOST OTHER AREAS SHOULD BE DRY WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE (MORE SUN THE FURTHER SOUTH ONE GOES). TEMPERATURES WILL SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S ALBANY SOUTHWARD...BUT ONLY IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50 FURTHER NORTH AND ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE MAINLY IN THE 30S...TO AROUND 40 LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION. BY FRIDAY...AN IMPRESSIVE CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING FROM OUR WEST AND ALOFT...A NEW TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS. RIGHT NOW...MOST OF FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING LATE IN THE DAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 50 IN THE VALLEYS...40S HIGHER TERRAIN. SHOWERS LOOK TO INCREASE ACROSS OUR REGION FRIDAY AS ENERGY FROM THE CLIPPER TRANSFORMS INTO AN OCEAN STORM BY EARLY SATURDAY. ALOFT AN UPPER AIR LOW WILL BE CUTTING TO EAST OUR WELL...WHICH WILL CAPTURE THE SURFACE STORM TO THE EAST OF CAPE COD. ALL THE 12Z GUIDANCE HAD THIS SURFACE STORM DEVELOPING TOO FAR EAST TO BRING A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO OUR REGION. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT...WHEN COMBINED THE DEVELOPING TROUGH DRIVING ENOUGH COLD AIR INTO THE REGION...TO PRODUCE SOME SNOW ACROSS REGION SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. IT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THAT SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW COULD TAKE PLACE...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS BUT EVEN VALLEY AREAS COULD SEE A LEAST A LITTLE. KEEP IN MIND...THIS STORM IS POTENTIALLY FOUR DAYS OUT...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS STORM COULD DEVELOP A LITTLE FURTHER WEST. IT DEFINITELY BEARS WATCHING AS ANY POSSIBLE EARLY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION COULD PRODUCE PROBLEMS AS MANY TREES FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH STILL HAVE A FAIR AMOUNT OF LEAVES ON THEM. FOR NOW...CONTINUED WITH 40-50 POPS ACROSS OUR REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH AGAIN THE BEST CHANCES FOR SNOW OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT CHANCES FOR AT LEAST SNOW SHOWERS EXIST EVERYWHERE BY SATURDAY NIGHT. STORM OR NOT...IT LOOKS AS IF THE COLDEST AIR MASS SINCE LAST APRIL WILL BE USHERED IN SATURDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY...THE OCEAN STORM LOOKS TO BE SITUATED NEAR NOVA SCOTIA...PRODUCING A BRISK WIND FLOW. THERE MIGHT BE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS...BUT THE FLOW AT POINT LOOKED MORE NORTHWESTERLY (THAN WESTERLY) THIS WOULD IMPLY ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS WOULD BE FRAGMENTED ACROSS MAINLY THE ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...IT WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD THEY TAKE PLACE. THE ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE ON MONDAY. LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 30S NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY ON SATURDAY...40-45 ALBANY SOUTHWARD. TEMPERATURES WILL DIVE DOWN INTO THE 20S ACROSS MOST PLACES SATURDAY NIGHT. ON SUNDAY...HIGHS WILL GENERALLY ONLY BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER THAN SATURDAY. BY MONDAY...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO MODERATE BACK INTO THE 40S...TO AROUND 50 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD COUNTY. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... NO AVIATION WEATHER RELATED PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREDOMINATING THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH CLOUDS...ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION...AND EVENTUALLY A LIGHT SOUTHERLY BREEZE SHOULD PRECLUDE THE FORMATION OF ANY FOG AT OUR TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE THAT SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT 10KTS BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING...WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20KTS POSSIBLE (NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAF SINCE FOR THE MOST PART THESE GUSTS DO NOT LOOK THAT PERSISTENT). TUESDAY WILL FEATURE SOME MID TO HIGH MAINLY SCT CLOUDS. OUTLOOK... TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA. WEDNESDAY: OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN. SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN. && .FIRE WEATHER... NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH MOST AREAS SOUTH OF I90 REMAINING DRY. A MILD AND DRY DAY SETTING UP FOR TUESDAY WITH A SOUTHERLY BREEZE OF 10 TO 18 MPH AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND TONIGHT...BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH ARE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY. THE RH VALUES WILL RECOVERY OVERNIGHT TO BETWEEN 80 AND 100 PERCENT...THEN DROP INTO THE 40-60 PERCENTILE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. && .HYDROLOGY... NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK. RIVERS FLOWS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THE NEXT FEW DAYS DESPITE THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL WILL BE IN THE TENTH TO HALF OF AN INCH RANGE. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR MOST OF THE HSA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATER FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. SOME THE PRECIPITATION MAY BE RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. MA...NONE. VT...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/BGM/WASULA NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA LONG TERM...HWJIV AVIATION...HWJIV FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
745 PM EDT MON OCT 27 2014 .UPDATE (REST OF TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)... 23Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS. NORTHERN STREAM FLOW ARRIVES OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST OVER TOP AN EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE...AND THEN DIVES QUICKLY SOUTHWARD INTO A LONGWAVE TROUGH EJECTING EASTWARD FROM THE INTER-MOUTAIN WEST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY. THE FLOW THEN RIDGES BACK UP OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION. THE FLORIDA PENINSULA RESIDES WITHIN THE BASE OF THIS EASTERN CONUS RIDGE UNDER A CONTINUED VERY DRY ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. THE DRYESS IN THE MIDDLE/UPPER LEVELS IS CLEARLY EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY...AND THE LOW LEVEL DRYNESS IS VERY APPARENT TAKING A QUICK GLANCE AT THE DATA COMING BACK FROM THE 28/00Z KTBW SOUNDING PROFILE. MARKED DRYING WAS SAMPLED AT THE TOP OF THE MIXING LAYER AROUND 850MB WITH LARGE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS FROM THERE ON UP. THE DRY COLUMN AND COMPLETE LACK OF SYNOPTIC SUPPORT FOR LIFT WILL KEEP OUR SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR INTO THE MORNING HOURS OF TUESDAY. REST OF TONIGHT WILL BE VERY QUIET IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER... WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. A COMBINATION OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND THE VERY DRY ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO GET COOL OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES BY DAWN WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S TO THE NORTH OF I-4...AND IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FURTHER SOUTH. ANOTHER VERY PLEASANT DAY ON TAP FOR TUESDAY. STACKED RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE DAY...EVEN THOUGH THE UPPER RIDGE CENTER BEGINS TO DRIFT TO THE EAST OF THE PENINSULA. 590DM H5 HEIGHTS ARE PRETTY DECENT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...SO WOULD ANTICIPATE ANOTHER ABOVE AVERAGE DAY IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES. AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD EASILY REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK SEA-BREEZE DEVELOPING BY MID AFTERNOON ALONG THE COAST WILL DROP TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES AT THE BEACHES. SOME ATLANTIC MOISTURE RETURN ABOVE THE SURFACE SHOULD ALLOW FOR A FEW MORE IN THE WAY OF CUMULUS CLOUDS FOR THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THIS MOISTURE RETURN IS VERY SHALLOW AND SO ANY CUMULUS WILL HAVE VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF VERTICAL GROWTH. HAVE A GREAT MONDAY NIGHT AND ENJOY THE CONTINUED DRY WEATHER FOR YOUR TUESDAY! && .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR FOG IS A POSSIBILITY LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY FOR KLAL...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION BR IN THE FORECAST FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. && .MARINE... HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WELL OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL KEEP CLEAR DRY AIR OVER THE WATERS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WINDS WILL REMAIN EASTERLY WITH SEA BREEZES LATE IN THE DAY. BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AND BACK WINDS TO THE NORTH AND BRING IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. NO HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 66 85 68 84 / 0 0 10 10 FMY 65 86 67 86 / 0 0 10 20 GIF 62 85 65 85 / 0 0 10 10 SRQ 63 85 67 84 / 0 0 10 10 BKV 52 86 59 86 / 0 0 10 10 SPG 69 84 71 84 / 0 0 10 10 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GULF WATERS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...05/CARLISLE LONG TERM...18/FLEMING MARINE...007/DOUGHERTY DECISION SUPPORT...09/RUDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
714 PM EDT MON OCT 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 114 PM EDT MON OCT 27 2014 UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR WILL BE OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...WITH DRIER AND COOLER AIR FUNNELING BACK IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. && .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 714 PM EDT MON OCT 27 2014 SUBTLE BAND OF ENHANCED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS CURRENTLY TOUCHING OFF A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE HELP OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES. LOWER LEVELS ARE STILL RELATIVELY DRY AND QPF AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN LIGHT BUT DID EXPAND AND PUSH UP THE TIMING OF POPS FOR THE EARLY OVERNIGHT PERIOD IN LIGHT OF LATEST RADAR IMAGERY AND CG LIGHTNING REPORTS. STILL EXPECT PRECIP TO EXPAND IN OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES LATER TONIGHT AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES SO NO MAJOR CHANGES AFTER 06Z...AN IDEA SUPPORTED BY LATEST HRRR AND RAP GUIDANCE. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 309 PM EDT MON OCT 27 2014 REASONABLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT FOR TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND PCPN CHANCES. WATER VAPOR THIS AFTERNOON CLEARLY SHOWS PARENT LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MS VALLEY REGION STREAMING NORTHEAST TOWARD OUR AREA. MAIN SHORT WAVE RIDING AROUND BASE OF UPPER LOW AND SHOULD MOVE THROUGH HERE LATER TONIGHT. INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION THROUGH THE EVENING WITH INITIAL WEAK LEAD SHORT WAVE AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET TO 50 KNOTS MAY AID IN A FEW SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA EARLY THIS EVENING. HIRES GUIDANCE ALL SHOWING THIS DEVELOPMENT WHILE AFTERNOON RADAR MOSAIC INDEED SHOWS SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ALREADY BEGINNING OVER EASTERN MO INTO WESTERN IL. WILL ACCOUNT FOR THIS WITH A LOW TO MODERATE POP FROM 00Z THROUGH 06Z THEN RAMPING UP POPS AFTER 06Z...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN AREAS AS MAIN SHORT WAVE APPROACHES. EXPECT BURGEONING AREA OF PCPN UPSTREAM THIS EVENING WITH BEST FORCING AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE WHICH SHOULD THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE GIVEN MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS BUT NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER. COULD SEE A FEW ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH STRONGEST UPDRAFTS GIVEN LOW LEVEL JET. SPEED OF SYSTEM AND DISTANCE CURRENTLY BETWEEN PARENT LOW AND MOISTURE FEED SUPPORT STRONG DRY SLOT MOVING IN TUESDAY QUICKLY ENDING PCPN FROM WEST TO EAST. MODEL DEPICTIONS SHOW STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING WITH SKY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY. A BIT CONCERNED ABOUT STRATOCUMULUS FILLING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION ALOFT BUT NOT READY TO GO AGAINST SUBSIDENCE AND PRIOR TRENDS AT THIS TIME. LOWS TONIGHT LIKELY TO REMAIN IN THE 60S MOST AREAS WITH CLOUD COVER AND WINDS. TEMPS NOT EXPECTED TO DO MUCH ON TUESDAY WITH MORNING COLD FRONT PASSAGE. COLDER AIR INITIALLY SLOW TO INFILTRATE...LIKELY BEING OFFSET BY CLEARING AND DIURNAL SUN IN EARLY AFTERNOON. SHOULD SEE TEMPS FALL MORE RAPIDLY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS SUN BEGINS TO SET AND COLD WEDGE DEEPENS OVER THE AREA...ESPECIALLY IF MORE CLOUD COVER DEVELOPS. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S EXPECTED SOMEWHERE IN THE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. && .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 309 PM EDT MON OCT 27 2014 PERIOD WILL START ON THE QUIET SIDE WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW HOLDS ACROSS THE REGION. MODEST WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL TRY TO NOSE IN THURS INTO THURS NIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG PIECE OF ENERGY WHICH WILL BREAK OFF FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN CANADA. FOLLOWING THE FAR SUPERIOR ECMWF OF THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS IN THESE MORE ENERGIZED PATTERN A BRIEF BUT POTENT SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS BOTH WITH PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT AND IN ITS WAKE WITH FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. AT THIS POINT...BULK OF THE COLDEST AIR WILL BYPASS THE FORECAST AREA BUT THAT BEING SAID 850 MB TEMPS WILL STILL DROP INTO THE -6 TO -8 C RANGE AT 850 MB. ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE. WITH THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR COMING IN AND 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES DROPPING BELOW 1300 M...THE CONCERN IS RAISED FOR A BIT OF WET SNOW BEING MIXED IN FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS SHOW BELOW FREEZING TEMPS THROUGH 925 MB...BUT SFC TEMPS SUGGEST READINGS AROUND 40. A MENTION OF SNOW MAY NOT HURT IN FAR NE AREAS BUT HOLDING OFF FOR NOW WITH BEST TIME FRAME OCCURRING AS BEST PRECIP CHANCES ARE DEPARTING. AS MENTIONED...COLD AIR WILL BE SHORT AS DEEP UPPER LOW PIVOTS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH A CONTINUED BUT MORE RELAXED NW FLOW IN TERMS OF COLD AIR ALOFT ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO BEGIN TO MODERATE BACK TOWARDS NORMAL BY MONDAY AS WARM FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION. ECMWF SUGGESTS SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ON THE NOSE OF INCREASING THETA E BUT WITH AMOUNT OF DRY AIR STILL IN PLACE WILL BE SOMEWHAT CONSERVATIVE AND KEEP TONED DOWN ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN AREAS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 714 PM EDT MON OCT 27 2014 SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GRADUALLY EXPANDING THIS EVENING ALONG SUBTLE BAND OF ENHANCED ISENTROPIC ASCENT/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE LED TO SCT THUNDERSTORMS DESPITE DRY LOW LEVELS AND HIGH CLOUD BASES. LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN AT KFWA THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING WITH LIMITED VIS/CEILING REDUCTION SEEN IN PRECIP SO FAR. DETERIORATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT AT BOTH TERMINALS AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. WILL HOLD ABOVE FUEL ALTERNATE FOR NOW BUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW END MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. QUICK IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CATEGORY EXPECTED BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING AS DRY SLOT OVERSPREADS THE REGION. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. MI...NONE. OH...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ043-046. && $$ UPDATE...AGD SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL/LASHLEY SHORT TERM...LASHLEY LONG TERM...FISHER AVIATION...AGD VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
831 PM MDT MON OCT 27 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 831 PM MDT MON OCT 27 2014 UPDATE ISSUED TO REMOVE MENTION OF ANY PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. LATEST RADAR IMAGE STILL SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW --RW AS CLD COVER STILL LINGERS OVER GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA SO WILL KEEP IN FOR NEXT COUPLE HOURS. NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME TO OVERNIGHT LOWS AS AWAITING CLOUDS TO BREAK UP. THE BIG DROP OFF IN WINDS PLUS A SHIFT IN DIRECTION OUT WEST MAY AID IN ALLOWING TEMPS TO DROP AS SKIES CLR OUT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TO SEE IF ANY CHANGES NEED TO BE MADE TO CURRENT ADVISORY/WARNING. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 252 PM MDT MON OCT 27 2014 UPPER FLOW WILL BE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SUBSIDENCE WILL PRODUCE DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FA THROUGH TUESDAY. POPS FOR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WILL BE NIL. RADAR RETURNS ACROSS THE FA TODAY HAVE BEEN VERY LIGHT WITH METARS REPORTING HIGH CLOUD BASES AND NO PRECIPITATION. THE HRRR SHOWS A BAND OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER AN AREA IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES THIS EVENING SO WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SPRINKLES THERE. THIS IS AN AREA WHERE THERE IS FRONTOGENESIS BUT MOISTURE IS LIMITED. THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE IF THERE WILL BE A HARD FREEZE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL DECREASE AND BECOME LIGHT FROM THE WEST ALONG WITH CLEARING. MOST OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE GIVES LOW TEMPERATURES AROUND 30 IN EASTERN COLORADO WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REST OF THE FA. THERE IS A LEAST ONE GUIDANCE THAT SHOWS TEMPERATURES AROUND 29 DEGREES IN EASTERN COLORADO AND WITH THE MET SHOWING 21 DEGREES FOR LIC, CANNOT RULE OUT A HARD FREEZE IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN COLORADO ZONES. PLAN TO UPGRADE THE FREEZE WATCH TO A WARNING IN EASTERN COLORADO AND THEN GO WITH A FROST ADVISORY ACROSS THE REST OF THE FA. SEE UPDATED HIGHLIGHTS BELOW. MAX TEMPERATURES TUESDAY SHOULD WARM TO THE LOWER 60S. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 252 PM MDT MON OCT 27 2014 FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...QUIET WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE WEEK BEFORE THE NEXT WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. MAIN CONCERNS AS IT STANDS RIGHT NOW IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS ON SATURDAY. BEGINNING WITH TUESDAY NIGHT...COLD LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN. FOR THIS NIGHT...MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE FROST ONCE AGAIN BUT LOCATIONS AROUND MCCOOK...OBERLIN AND NORTON MAY APPROACH FREEZE WARNING CRITERIA...28 DEGREES OR LESS. WITH THE CURRENT FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES OUT...WILL NOT ISSUE ADDITIONAL HAZARD HEADLINES BUT THEY MAY BE NEEDED FROM TONIGHTS SHIFT OR TOMORROWS DAY SHIFT. FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRANSLATES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...LEAVING THE REGION PRECIPITATION- FREE. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES OVER THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES INTO THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY...FORCING A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH. THIS WILL LEAD TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY. WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S BEFORE COOLING OFF THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOW DEWPOINTS SHOULD REMAIN FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM MCCOOK NEBRASKA TO TRIBUNE KANSAS...RESULTING IN RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE 15-20 PERCENT RANGE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS ARE FORECAST SO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS. THE ONLY QUESTION THAT REMAINS IS HOW ACTIVE WILL WE BE? MODELS ARE INDICATING A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND EJECTING OVER THE PLAINS BUT DISAGREE ON TIMING/MOVEMENT. WE ARE GETTING INTO THE SEASON WHERE THESE TYPES OF TROUGHS NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER DEVELOPMENT. THE CANADIAN MODEL DEVELOPS A STRONG MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE SATURDAY OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA BEFORE HEADING INTO NORTH DAKOTA. THE GFS INDICATES A SECOND...STRONGER LOBE OF ENERGY MOVING ACROSS OUR REGION WITH POTENTIAL FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION ON THE BACK SIDE. THESE TWO SOLUTIONS RAISE THE ALERT FLAG ON A POTENTIAL SECOND SNOW OF THE YEAR. GLANCING AT THE TEMPERATURES...IT APPEARS TOO WARM FOR SNOW AT THIS TIME. THE EUROPEAN MODEL INDICATES A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS WELL...BUT WELL TO THE NORTH... BEGINNING IN COLORADO/WYOMING BEFORE MOVING NORTH TOWARDS CANADA. NEEDLESS TO SAY...THIS SYSTEM NEEDS TO BE MONITORED BUT FORECAST GUIDANCE VARIANCE IS TOO GREAT TO MAKE ANY DEFINITIVE PREDICTIONS ON WHETHER A LARGER SYSTEM IMPACTS THE TRI-STATE AREA. ONE THING ALL GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS SATURDAY. WITH A DEEP LEE TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT...A RESULTANT STRENGTHENING OF THE WIND FIELD IS GUARANTEED. THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE WINDS AND SHOW POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTS...POSSIBLY 45-55 MPH. WIND FIELDS AT 1 KM AND 700 MB INDICATE THERE COULD BE SOME GUSTS EVEN STRONGER BUT WAS NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PLACE MENTION OF THIS IN PRODUCTS YET. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 527 PM MDT MON OCT 27 2014 MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH SKC TO SCT-BKN100-150. SOME --RW/VCSH POSSIBLE THRU 02Z TUESDAY. STRONG NW FLOW 15-25KTS DIMINISHING TO 5-10KTS BY 04Z AND SHIFTING TO WNW. BY 13Z-14Z TUESDAY WINDS MORE NW 5-15KTS. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT MDT /1 AM CDT/ TONIGHT TO 10 AM MDT /11 AM CDT/ TUESDAY FOR KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042. CO...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM MDT TUESDAY FOR COZ090>092. NE...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT MDT /1 AM CDT/ TONIGHT TO 10 AM MDT /11 AM CDT/ TUESDAY FOR NEZ079>081. && $$ UPDATE...JN SHORT TERM...FS LONG TERM...RRH AVIATION...JN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
527 PM MDT MON OCT 27 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 527 PM MDT MON OCT 27 2014 UPDATE ISSUED TO ADD IN MENTION OF SPRINKLES TO NW ZONES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE CLEARING OUT. CLOUD COVER FROM BOUNDARY OVER THE CWA CONTINUES TO SLOWLY ERODE FROM THE WEST- NORTHWEST. CAN NOT RULE OUT CWA SEEING A FEW SPRINKLES DESPITE HIGH CLOUD COVER/LOW RH VALUES. AS THE TRI STATE REGION CLEARS OUT THE WEATHER CONCERN GOING INTO THE OVER NIGHT HOURS WILL BE THE POTENTIAL DROP IN TEMPERATURES. WNW WINDS WILL BE FACTOR IN DETERMINING OVERNIGHT LOWS. WILL MONITOR BOTH UNTIL NEXT UPDATE AND MAY HAVE TO MAKE CHANGES IN OVERNIGHT LOWS. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 252 PM MDT MON OCT 27 2014 UPPER FLOW WILL BE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SUBSIDENCE WILL PRODUCE DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FA THROUGH TUESDAY. POPS FOR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WILL BE NIL. RADAR RETURNS ACROSS THE FA TODAY HAVE BEEN VERY LIGHT WITH METARS REPORTING HIGH CLOUD BASES AND NO PRECIPITATION. THE HRRR SHOWS A BAND OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER AN AREA IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES THIS EVENING SO WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SPRINKLES THERE. THIS IS AN AREA WHERE THERE IS FRONTOGENESIS BUT MOISTURE IS LIMITED. THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE IF THERE WILL BE A HARD FREEZE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL DECREASE AND BECOME LIGHT FROM THE WEST ALONG WITH CLEARING. MOST OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE GIVES LOW TEMPERATURES AROUND 30 IN EASTERN COLORADO WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REST OF THE FA. THERE IS A LEAST ONE GUIDANCE THAT SHOWS TEMPERATURES AROUND 29 DEGREES IN EASTERN COLORADO AND WITH THE MET SHOWING 21 DEGREES FOR LIC, CANNOT RULE OUT A HARD FREEZE IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN COLORADO ZONES. PLAN TO UPGRADE THE FREEZE WATCH TO A WARNING IN EASTERN COLORADO AND THEN GO WITH A FROST ADVISORY ACROSS THE REST OF THE FA. SEE UPDATED HIGHLIGHTS BELOW. MAX TEMPERATURES TUESDAY SHOULD WARM TO THE LOWER 60S. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 252 PM MDT MON OCT 27 2014 FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...QUIET WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE WEEK BEFORE THE NEXT WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. MAIN CONCERNS AS IT STANDS RIGHT NOW IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS ON SATURDAY. BEGINNING WITH TUESDAY NIGHT...COLD LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN. FOR THIS NIGHT...MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE FROST ONCE AGAIN BUT LOCATIONS AROUND MCCOOK...OBERLIN AND NORTON MAY APPROACH FREEZE WARNING CRITERIA...28 DEGREES OR LESS. WITH THE CURRENT FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES OUT...WILL NOT ISSUE ADDITIONAL HAZARD HEADLINES BUT THEY MAY BE NEEDED FROM TONIGHTS SHIFT OR TOMORROWS DAY SHIFT. FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRANSLATES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...LEAVING THE REGION PRECIPITATION- FREE. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES OVER THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES INTO THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY...FORCING A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH. THIS WILL LEAD TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY. WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S BEFORE COOLING OFF THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOW DEWPOINTS SHOULD REMAIN FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM MCCOOK NEBRASKA TO TRIBUNE KANSAS...RESULTING IN RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE 15-20 PERCENT RANGE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS ARE FORECAST SO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS. THE ONLY QUESTION THAT REMAINS IS HOW ACTIVE WILL WE BE? MODELS ARE INDICATING A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND EJECTING OVER THE PLAINS BUT DISAGREE ON TIMING/MOVEMENT. WE ARE GETTING INTO THE SEASON WHERE THESE TYPES OF TROUGHS NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER DEVELOPMENT. THE CANADIAN MODEL DEVELOPS A STRONG MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE SATURDAY OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA BEFORE HEADING INTO NORTH DAKOTA. THE GFS INDICATES A SECOND...STRONGER LOBE OF ENERGY MOVING ACROSS OUR REGION WITH POTENTIAL FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION ON THE BACK SIDE. THESE TWO SOLUTIONS RAISE THE ALERT FLAG ON A POTENTIAL SECOND SNOW OF THE YEAR. GLANCING AT THE TEMPERATURES...IT APPEARS TOO WARM FOR SNOW AT THIS TIME. THE EUROPEAN MODEL INDICATES A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS WELL...BUT WELL TO THE NORTH... BEGINNING IN COLORADO/WYOMING BEFORE MOVING NORTH TOWARDS CANADA. NEEDLESS TO SAY...THIS SYSTEM NEEDS TO BE MONITORED BUT FORECAST GUIDANCE VARIANCE IS TOO GREAT TO MAKE ANY DEFINITIVE PREDICTIONS ON WHETHER A LARGER SYSTEM IMPACTS THE TRI-STATE AREA. ONE THING ALL GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS SATURDAY. WITH A DEEP LEE TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT...A RESULTANT STRENGTHENING OF THE WIND FIELD IS GUARANTEED. THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE WINDS AND SHOW POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTS...POSSIBLY 45-55 MPH. WIND FIELDS AT 1 KM AND 700 MB INDICATE THERE COULD BE SOME GUSTS EVEN STRONGER BUT WAS NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PLACE MENTION OF THIS IN PRODUCTS YET. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 527 PM MDT MON OCT 27 2014 MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH SKC TO SCT-BKN100-150. SOME --RW/VCSH POSSIBLE THRU 02Z TUESDAY. STRONG NW FLOW 15-25KTS DIMINISHING TO 5-10KTS BY 04Z AND SHIFTING TO WNW. BY 13Z-14Z TUESDAY WINDS MORE NW 5-15KTS. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT MDT /1 AM CDT/ TONIGHT TO 10 AM MDT /11 AM CDT/ TUESDAY FOR KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042. CO...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM MDT TUESDAY FOR COZ090>092. NE...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT MDT /1 AM CDT/ TONIGHT TO 10 AM MDT /11 AM CDT/ TUESDAY FOR NEZ079>081. && $$ UPDATE...JN SHORT TERM...FS LONG TERM...RRH AVIATION...JN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
213 PM MDT SUN OCT 26 2014 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 205 PM MDT SUN OCT 26 2014 EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW RIDGE CENTERED OVER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND TROUGH BUILDING SOUTH INTO THE WESTERN US. SW FLOW IS IN PLACE OVR THE CENTRAL ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER OUR CWA. AT THE SURFACE COLD FRONT IS MOVING OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO WITH A WARM FRONT OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA. SURFACE TROUGH HAS SHIFTED EAST WITH LIGHT NW LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS OUR CWA. PRECIP TONIGHT-MONDAY...GUIDANCE SHOWING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT FROM NW TO SE THROUGH SUNRISE. MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY WITH BETTER FORCING OVER OUR CWA ALONG THE SOUTHERN AXIS OF THIS TROUGH BETWEEN THE MID-MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON PERIOD. LIMITING FACTOR FOR PRECIPITATION TONIGHT AND MONDAY CONTINUES TO BE A VERY DRY AIR MASS THAT WILL HAVE TO BE OVERCOME FOR ANY PRECIPITATION TO REACH THE GROUND. BY MIDDAY MONDAY SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE A SATURATED LAYER WITHIN 4-8KFT AGL...HOWEVER THERE IS STILL A DRY LAYER BELOW THIS WITH TD DEPRESSIONS 30-40F. THERE IS SOME WEAK INSTABILITY WITHIN THIS LAYER...WHICH COULD SUPPORT A FEW MODERATE SHOWERS...WHICH COULD REACH THE SURFACE AS MEASURABLE RAINFALL. SEEMS LIKELY WE WILL SEE VIRGA AND MAYBE SCATTERED SPRINKLES...AND ONLY ISOLATED 0.01-0.05" AMOUNTS OUT OF THIS EVENT. KEPT NW TO SE TIMING FROM 06Z TONIGHT THROUGH MID AFTERNOON MONDAY...LIMITING POPS TO 20 BASED ON LIMITED CONFIDENCE ON MEASURABLE PRECIP. WIND/RH THIS AFTERNOON-MONDAY...LOW SURFACE TD VALUES ALREADY ADVECTING EAST HAVE ALLOWED RH VALUES TO DROP TO NEAR 15 PERCENT...HOWEVER WITH WINDS ALREADY BACKING OFF AND STRONGER GUSTS (20-25KT) LIMITED TO THE FAR NW WHERE IS HIGHER RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY. SURFACE TD WILL CONTINUE TO DROP THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...HOWEVER WITH COOLING AIR MASS AND HIGHS IN THE 50S/60S RH VALUES WILL NOT DROP TO NECESSARY LEVELS FOR RED FLAG WARNING. WINDS ON THE OTHER HAND WILL INCREASE AS COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH...AND WITH MIXING TO AROUND 800MB WE SHOULD SEE GUSTS 30-40 MPH MONDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. ADVISORY CRITERIA IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED BASED ON CURRENT GFS/NAM MIXING HEIGHTS/850-775MB WINDS. IF WE WERE TO MIX TO 700MB MAYBE WE COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS IN THE 45-48 MPH RANGE...HOWEVER THE WOULD BE MOST LIKELY WITH VIRGA/LIGHT SHOWERS AND NOT A WIDESPREAD THREAT. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 205 PM MDT SUN OCT 26 2014 UPPER FLOW WILL BE NORTHWEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THIS TIME. SUBSIDENCE AND LACK OF MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DYNAMICS FROM THE EXITING TROUGH SHOULD BE OUTSIDE OF THE FA BY MONDAY EVENING. POPS WILL BE NIL THROUGH THIS PART OF THE FORECAST. FROST POTENTIAL LOOKS GOOD FOR MONDAY NIGHT WITH A HARD FREEZE POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST KANSAS...WEST OF HIGHWAY 27. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR FROST AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT BUT A HARD FREEZE IS NOT EXPECTED SINCE TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS COLD. PLAN ON ISSUING A FREEZE WATCH FOR LATE MONDAY NIGHT IN COORDINATION WITH BOU AND PUB OFFICES. SEE DETAILS BELOW. MIN TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 20S WEST OF HIGHWAY 27 WITH LOWER TO MID 30S EAST ACROSS THE KANSAS ZONES. MIN TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE MID 30S. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE LOWER 60S. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 70S ARE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY. IN THE EXTENDED...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)... DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FA THROUGH SUNDAY AS A RIDGE BUILDS EAST FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS. BY SUNDAY UPPER FLOW TURNS SOUTHWEST AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTH PLAINS. SINCE MOISTURE IS TOO FAR NORTH CHANCES ARE VERY SLIM FOR ANYTHING MEASURABLE IN THE FA. CONSEQUENTLY, POPS WILL BE NIL SUNDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL WARM TO THE LOWER 70S BY SUNDAY AS 850 TEMPERATURES WARM TO AROUND 20C. MIN TEMPERATURES IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S WILL WARM TO THE LOWER 40S BY SATURDAY NIGHT. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1122 AM MDT SUN OCT 26 2014 VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK TERMINALS. GUSTY NW WINDS AROUND 20KT AT BOTH TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME LIGHT AROUND SUNRISE AS MIXING DECREASES. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR VIRGA TO BOTH TERMINALS MONDAY...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE IS TOO LOW TO ADD VCSH AT THIS TIME. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER BOTH TERMINALS BY 12Z WITH INCREASING WINDS BEHIND THIS. GUSTS OUT OF THE NORTH BY MID MORNING MONDAY WILL BE AROUND 30KT AT BOTH TERMINALS...AND A FEW STRONGER GUSTS CANT BE RULED OUT. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR KSZ001-013-027. CO...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR COZ090>092. NE...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR NEZ079. && $$ SHORT TERM...DR LONG TERM...FS AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1122 AM MDT SUN OCT 26 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 811 AM MDT SUN OCT 26 2014 EXTENDED AREA AND EXP OF DENSE FOG BASED ON CURRENT COVERAGE REFLECTED ON VIS/FOG SATELLITE PRODUCTS...SURFACE OBS...AND LOCAL SPOTTERS. RAP SEEMS TO HAVE GOOD HANDLE ON CURRENT FOG COVERAGE/TIMING. FOG/STRATUS IS LIMITED TO JUST NORTH OF STATIONARY FRONT...AND WITH DAYTIME MIXING INCREASING AND SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT SHIFTING EAST THIS FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE WITHIN TIME RANGE REFLECTED BY RAP (ROUGHLY THROUGH 16/17Z). UPDATE ISSUED AT 541 AM MDT SUN OCT 26 2014 DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS HITCHCOCK AND RED WILLOW COUNTIES OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO. WEB CAMS ACROSS HITCHCOCK COUNTY AND THE MCCOOK AIRPORT ALL INDICATE VISIBILITIES AROUND 1/4 MILE OR LESS. THEREFORE HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THESE TWO COUNTIES FOR THE NEXT 3 HOURS. DENSE FOG IS LIKELY SPREADING INTO THE COUNTIES TO THE WEST AND SOUTH BUT AM THINKING THE COVERAGE IS NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY. VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING AS THE WEAK FRONT MOVES EASTWARD BRINGING DRIER AIR WITH IT. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 301 AM MDT SUN OCT 26 2014 LATEST SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. TO THE WEST AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS MOVING ONTO THE WEST COAST. BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND THE RIDGE AREAS OF CLOUDS WERE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK FRONT WAS LOCATED ALONG THE KS/NE BORDER THEN TURNED SOUTHWEST OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS NEAR COLBY...EXTENDING INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS. EAST OF THE FRONT SOUTHEAST WINDS WERE ADVECTING HIGHER DEW POINTS TO THE NORTH. AS A RESULT EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP EAST OF THE FRONT DURING THE MORNING. TODAY EXPECT THE FOG TO PERSIST THROUGH MID MORNING THEN BEGIN TO DISSIPATE FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE WEAK FRONT MOVES EASTWARD. THE LOWEST VISIBILITIES WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE KS/NE BORDER WHERE SURFACE WINDS WILL CONVERGE AND DEW POINTS WILL BE HIGHEST. MEANWHILE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA TODAY FOLLOWING THE WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. DUE TO THE DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE AM NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN SOME CLOUD COVER WITH THE FRONT/UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSAGE. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE NEAR RECORD VALUES. TONIGHT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WEST HALF OF THE AREA...REMAINING STATIONARY THROUGH THE NIGHT. OVERNIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. WITH THE CONTINUED DRY ENVIRONMENT AM NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE THAN SOME CLOUDS FROM THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH PRIOR TO THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH. LATER ON MOISTURE AND LIFT INCREASE OVERNIGHT OVER THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH BUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. TOWARD SUNRISE 700-500MB FRONTOGENESIS DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE AREA AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS. WITH MOISTURE CONTINUING TO INCREASE AND THETA-E LAPSE RATES NEAR ZERO...WILL PLACE A MENTION OF RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST PART OF THE AREA. SOUNDINGS DO NOT LOOK TOO GREAT FOR ANY RAINFALL ACTUALLY REACHING THE GROUND DUE TO A DRY LAYER BELOW ROUGHLY 700MB AND THE 100MB DEEP SATURATED LAYER AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS...BUT CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT ANY RAINFALL. BY SUNRISE THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE AREA BRINGING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN BEHIND IT. MONDAY MORNING THE BEST INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LINKED WITH THE BAND OF 700-500MB FRONTOGENESIS MOVING SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL WILL BE IN THE MORNING OVER THE WEST WHERE THE FRONTOGENESIS WILL BE STRONGEST. THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR RAINFALL WILL AGAIN BE THE DRY LAYER PRESENT BELOW ROUGHLY 700MB AND THE FAIRLY SHALLOW DEPTH OF THE SATURATED LAYER AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AND THE TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST FURTHER AWAY FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...THE 700-500MB FRONTOGENESIS WEAKENS CAUSING THE LIFT TO WEAKEN. IN ADDITION THETA- E LAPSE RATES WILL BECOME MORE STABLE FURTHER HINDERING RAINFALL DEVELOPMENT. AS A RESULT WILL HAVE RAINFALL CHANCES DECLINING THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. DURING THE LATE MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE...WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH BY NOON. THE WIND WILL GRADUALLY DECLINE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS AN 850MB RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. MONDAY EVENING SOME WEAK 700-500MB FRONTOGENESIS WILL BE OVER THE FAR SOUTH/EAST PART OF THE AREA PRIOR TO THE TROUGH AXIS MOVING THROUGH. WILL KEEP MINIMAL RAINFALL CHANCES GOING JUST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS WITH RAINFALL ENDING ONCE THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. LATER IN THE EVENING AND THROUGH SUNRISE LOWS WILL FALL TO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S ACROSS THE AREA. AS A RESULT PATCHY TO WIDESPREAD FROST WILL DEVELOP...WITH SOME LOCATIONS WEST OF HIGHWAY 27 POSSIBLY HAVING A HARD FREEZE. AT THIS TIME LOCATIONS THAT WILL HAVE A HARD FREEZE ARE FAIRLY ISOLATED...BUT THIS MAY CHANGE WITH LATER DATA. TUESDAY DRY CONDITIONS RETURN BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AS A RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. DURING THE NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN COOL TO THE LOW TO MID 30S...ALLOWING PATCHY TO AREAS OF FROST TO DEVELOP BY SUNRISE. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 115 AM MDT SUN OCT 26 2014 WEDNESDAY...SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS BEFORE EXITING THE AREA BY SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. 850MB TEMPERATURES WARM ABOUT 9F FROM TUESDAYS VALUES SUPPORTING HIGHS AROUND 70/LOW 70S ACROSS THE AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S WEST TO LOW 40S EAST. THURSDAY...HIGH AMPLIFIED RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY TOWARD THE AREA REACHING THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LOWERING 850MB TEMPERATURES ABOUT 9F ACROSS THE AREA SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. SFC RIDGE AXIS HOLDS FIRM ACROSS THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE FURTHER WEST LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS TO THE SOUTHEAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S BUT COULD SEE SLIGHTLY COLDER READINGS ACROSS THE EAST WHERE PROXIMITY TO SFC HIGH AND LIGHT WINDS LASTS LONGER WHEN COMPARED TO AREAS FURTHER WEST. HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE RIDGE AXIS APPROACHES. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. FRIDAY...GFS/ECMWF IS BETTER AGREEMENT THIS MORNING WITH TIMING OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WHICH IS NOW FORECAST TO BE OVER THE AREA BY DAYS END AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. AS THE SFC HIGH SLOWLY MOVES EAST AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES. STRONGEST SOUTHEAST WINDS GENERALLY ALONG/WEST OF THE COLORADO/KANSAS BORDER WHERE GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 30 MPH RANGE POSSIBLE. GFS SHOWING 850MB TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO THURSDAYS VALUES WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWING SOME COOLER AIR ACROSS THE AREA. BLENDING THE TWO GIVES HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S (EAST TO WEST). LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. SATURDAY...LARGE UPPER TROUGH JUST COMING ASHORE ACROSS THE WEST IN THE MORNING NEARLY REACHES THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING PUTTING THE FORECAST AREA UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. STRONGER SFC WINDS MIGRATE TO THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AS SFC TROUGH MOVES INTO EASTERN COLORADO. PLENTIFUL DRY AIR CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. 850MB TEMPERATURES WARM QUITE SIGNIFICANTLY AND WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S PER GFS SOLUTION...THE ECMWF QUITE A BIT COOLER SO WILL GO WITH CURRENT FORECAST OF LOW TO MID 60S FOR NOW. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1122 AM MDT SUN OCT 26 2014 VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK TERMINALS. GUSTY NW WINDS AROUND 20KT AT BOTH TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME LIGHT AROUND SUNRISE AS MIXING DECREASES. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR VIRGA TO BOTH TERMINALS MONDAY...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE IS TOO LOW TO ADD VCSH AT THIS TIME. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER BOTH TERMINALS BY 12Z WITH INCREASING WINDS BEHIND THIS. GUSTS OUT OF THE NORTH BY MID MORNING MONDAY WILL BE AROUND 30KT AT BOTH TERMINALS...AND A FEW STRONGER GUSTS CANT BE RULED OUT. && .FIRE WEATHER... ISSUED AT 301 AM MDT SUN OCT 26 2014 THIS AFTERNOON NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO NEAR 30 MPH EAST OF THE COLORADO BORDER AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL FALL TO NEAR 15 PERCENT. CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE THE WINDS WILL BE DECLINING AS THE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FALL. AT THIS POINT WILL NOT BE ISSUING ANY HIGHLIGHTS FOR FIRE WEATHER DUE TO NO OVERLAP OF THE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WITH BREEZY WINDS. MONDAY AFTERNOON NORTH WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 40 MPH AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL FALL TO AROUND 20 PERCENT WEST OF HIGHWAY 27. CURRENTLY RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO FALL BELOW 15 PERCENT...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THIS IN CASE HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE REACHED. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...DR SHORT TERM...JTL LONG TERM...99 AVIATION...DR FIRE WEATHER...JTL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
814 AM MDT SUN OCT 26 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 811 AM MDT SUN OCT 26 2014 EXTENDED AREA AND EXP OF DENSE FOG BASED ON CURRENT COVERAGE REFLECTED ON VIS/FOG SATELLITE PRODUCTS...SURFACE OBS...AND LOCAL SPOTTERS. RAP SEEMS TO HAVE GOOD HANDLE ON CURRENT FOG COVERAGE/TIMING. FOG/STRATUS IS LIMITED TO JUST NORTH OF STATIONARY FRONT...AND WITH DAYTIME MIXING INCREASING AND SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT SHIFTING EAST THIS FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE WITHIN TIME RANGE REFLECTED BY RAP (ROUGHLY THROUGH 16/17Z). UPDATE ISSUED AT 541 AM MDT SUN OCT 26 2014 DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS HITCHCOCK AND RED WILLOW COUNTIES OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO. WEB CAMS ACROSS HITCHCOCK COUNTY AND THE MCCOOK AIRPORT ALL INDICATE VISIBILITIES AROUND 1/4 MILE OR LESS. THEREFORE HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THESE TWO COUNTIES FOR THE NEXT 3 HOURS. DENSE FOG IS LIKELY SPREADING INTO THE COUNTIES TO THE WEST AND SOUTH BUT AM THINKING THE COVERAGE IS NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY. VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING AS THE WEAK FRONT MOVES EASTWARD BRINGING DRIER AIR WITH IT. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 301 AM MDT SUN OCT 26 2014 LATEST SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. TO THE WEST AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS MOVING ONTO THE WEST COAST. BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND THE RIDGE AREAS OF CLOUDS WERE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK FRONT WAS LOCATED ALONG THE KS/NE BORDER THEN TURNED SOUTHWEST OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS NEAR COLBY...EXTENDING INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS. EAST OF THE FRONT SOUTHEAST WINDS WERE ADVECTING HIGHER DEW POINTS TO THE NORTH. AS A RESULT EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP EAST OF THE FRONT DURING THE MORNING. TODAY EXPECT THE FOG TO PERSIST THROUGH MID MORNING THEN BEGIN TO DISSIPATE FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE WEAK FRONT MOVES EASTWARD. THE LOWEST VISIBILITIES WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE KS/NE BORDER WHERE SURFACE WINDS WILL CONVERGE AND DEW POINTS WILL BE HIGHEST. MEANWHILE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA TODAY FOLLOWING THE WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. DUE TO THE DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE AM NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN SOME CLOUD COVER WITH THE FRONT/UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSAGE. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE NEAR RECORD VALUES. TONIGHT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WEST HALF OF THE AREA...REMAINING STATIONARY THROUGH THE NIGHT. OVERNIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. WITH THE CONTINUED DRY ENVIRONMENT AM NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE THAN SOME CLOUDS FROM THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH PRIOR TO THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH. LATER ON MOISTURE AND LIFT INCREASE OVERNIGHT OVER THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH BUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. TOWARD SUNRISE 700-500MB FRONTOGENESIS DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE AREA AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS. WITH MOISTURE CONTINUING TO INCREASE AND THETA-E LAPSE RATES NEAR ZERO...WILL PLACE A MENTION OF RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST PART OF THE AREA. SOUNDINGS DO NOT LOOK TOO GREAT FOR ANY RAINFALL ACTUALLY REACHING THE GROUND DUE TO A DRY LAYER BELOW ROUGHLY 700MB AND THE 100MB DEEP SATURATED LAYER AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS...BUT CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT ANY RAINFALL. BY SUNRISE THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE AREA BRINGING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN BEHIND IT. MONDAY MORNING THE BEST INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LINKED WITH THE BAND OF 700-500MB FRONTOGENESIS MOVING SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL WILL BE IN THE MORNING OVER THE WEST WHERE THE FRONTOGENESIS WILL BE STRONGEST. THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR RAINFALL WILL AGAIN BE THE DRY LAYER PRESENT BELOW ROUGHLY 700MB AND THE FAIRLY SHALLOW DEPTH OF THE SATURATED LAYER AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AND THE TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST FURTHER AWAY FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...THE 700-500MB FRONTOGENESIS WEAKENS CAUSING THE LIFT TO WEAKEN. IN ADDITION THETA- E LAPSE RATES WILL BECOME MORE STABLE FURTHER HINDERING RAINFALL DEVELOPMENT. AS A RESULT WILL HAVE RAINFALL CHANCES DECLINING THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. DURING THE LATE MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE...WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH BY NOON. THE WIND WILL GRADUALLY DECLINE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS AN 850MB RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. MONDAY EVENING SOME WEAK 700-500MB FRONTOGENESIS WILL BE OVER THE FAR SOUTH/EAST PART OF THE AREA PRIOR TO THE TROUGH AXIS MOVING THROUGH. WILL KEEP MINIMAL RAINFALL CHANCES GOING JUST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS WITH RAINFALL ENDING ONCE THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. LATER IN THE EVENING AND THROUGH SUNRISE LOWS WILL FALL TO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S ACROSS THE AREA. AS A RESULT PATCHY TO WIDESPREAD FROST WILL DEVELOP...WITH SOME LOCATIONS WEST OF HIGHWAY 27 POSSIBLY HAVING A HARD FREEZE. AT THIS TIME LOCATIONS THAT WILL HAVE A HARD FREEZE ARE FAIRLY ISOLATED...BUT THIS MAY CHANGE WITH LATER DATA. TUESDAY DRY CONDITIONS RETURN BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AS A RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. DURING THE NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN COOL TO THE LOW TO MID 30S...ALLOWING PATCHY TO AREAS OF FROST TO DEVELOP BY SUNRISE. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 115 AM MDT SUN OCT 26 2014 WEDNESDAY...SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS BEFORE EXITING THE AREA BY SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. 850MB TEMPERATURES WARM ABOUT 9F FROM TUESDAYS VALUES SUPPORTING HIGHS AROUND 70/LOW 70S ACROSS THE AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S WEST TO LOW 40S EAST. THURSDAY...HIGH AMPLIFIED RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY TOWARD THE AREA REACHING THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LOWERING 850MB TEMPERATURES ABOUT 9F ACROSS THE AREA SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. SFC RIDGE AXIS HOLDS FIRM ACROSS THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE FURTHER WEST LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS TO THE SOUTHEAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S BUT COULD SEE SLIGHTLY COLDER READINGS ACROSS THE EAST WHERE PROXIMITY TO SFC HIGH AND LIGHT WINDS LASTS LONGER WHEN COMPARED TO AREAS FURTHER WEST. HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE RIDGE AXIS APPROACHES. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. FRIDAY...GFS/ECMWF IS BETTER AGREEMENT THIS MORNING WITH TIMING OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WHICH IS NOW FORECAST TO BE OVER THE AREA BY DAYS END AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. AS THE SFC HIGH SLOWLY MOVES EAST AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES. STRONGEST SOUTHEAST WINDS GENERALLY ALONG/WEST OF THE COLORADO/KANSAS BORDER WHERE GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 30 MPH RANGE POSSIBLE. GFS SHOWING 850MB TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO THURSDAYS VALUES WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWING SOME COOLER AIR ACROSS THE AREA. BLENDING THE TWO GIVES HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S (EAST TO WEST). LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. SATURDAY...LARGE UPPER TROUGH JUST COMING ASHORE ACROSS THE WEST IN THE MORNING NEARLY REACHES THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING PUTTING THE FORECAST AREA UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. STRONGER SFC WINDS MIGRATE TO THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AS SFC TROUGH MOVES INTO EASTERN COLORADO. PLENTIFUL DRY AIR CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. 850MB TEMPERATURES WARM QUITE SIGNIFICANTLY AND WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S PER GFS SOLUTION...THE ECMWF QUITE A BIT COOLER SO WILL GO WITH CURRENT FORECAST OF LOW TO MID 60S FOR NOW. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 546 AM MDT SUN OCT 26 2014 LIFR TO VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 12Z TAFS. VERY LOW VIS IS BEING REPORTED AT KMCK IN THE FOG. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE IMPROVING AS A WEAK FRONT BRINGS DRIER AIR IN FROM THE WEST. ONCE THE DRIER AIR MOVES IN CONDITIONS SHOULD QUICKLY IMPROVE. MAIN CHALLENGE IS WHEN WILL CONDITIONS START TO IMPROVE. OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE DURING THE LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS WILL DECLINE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON...BECOMING LIGHT BY THE EARLY EVENING. && .FIRE WEATHER... ISSUED AT 301 AM MDT SUN OCT 26 2014 THIS AFTERNOON NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO NEAR 30 MPH EAST OF THE COLORADO BORDER AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL FALL TO NEAR 15 PERCENT. CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE THE WINDS WILL BE DECLINING AS THE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FALL. AT THIS POINT WILL NOT BE ISSUING ANY HIGHLIGHTS FOR FIRE WEATHER DUE TO NO OVERLAP OF THE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WITH BREEZY WINDS. MONDAY AFTERNOON NORTH WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 40 MPH AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL FALL TO AROUND 20 PERCENT WEST OF HIGHWAY 27. CURRENTLY RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO FALL BELOW 15 PERCENT...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THIS IN CASE HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE REACHED. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR KSZ002-003. CO...NONE. NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MDT /NOON CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR NEZ079>081. && $$ UPDATE...DR SHORT TERM...JTL LONG TERM...99 AVIATION...JTL FIRE WEATHER...JTL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
115 AM MDT SUN OCT 26 2014 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 1253 PM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014 LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW LARGE SCALE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...EXTENDING NORTH INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS IN PLACE OVER SE COLORADO AND NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A STALLED FRONT IS BISECTING OUR CWA...EXTENDING FROM NE COLORADO TO CENTRAL KANSAS (ROUGHLY ALONG A KAKO-KGLD- KHYS LINE). WITH STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE AND MAIN STORM TRACK WELL NORTH OF THE CWA...PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AGAIN SUNDAY AND POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG TONIGHT. REGARDING DENSE FOG...NAM/RUC/HRRR RH AND VIS FIELDS CONTINUE TO SHOW POSSIBILITY OF DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT NORTH OF THE QUASI- STATIONARY FRONT. SREF PROBABILITIES ARE ALSO SHOWING THIS. LOCATION OF FRONT AND MOISTURE POOLING ALONG/NORTH OF THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY BE CRITICAL TO DENSE FOG LOCATION...IN ADDITION NEAR INVERSION LAYER WINDS 10-20KT MAY ALLOW FOR ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP VIS HIGHER UNTIL LOW LEVELS COMPLETELY DECOUPLE AROUND SUNRISE. THERE IS ALSO INDICATION FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS AND CURRENT GFS THAT FRONT WILL BE FURTHER NORTH AND EAST WHICH WOULD ALLOW LOWER TD VALUES TO ADVECT EASTWARD WITH SHIFT IN LOW LEVEL FLOW. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN FOG DEVELOPMENT...BUT LOCATION IS ENOUGH OF A QUESTION TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUANCE OF ADVISORY DURING DAYTIME UPDATE PACKAGE. TEMP FORECAST SUNDAY IS ALSO COMPLICATED BY POSITION OF QUASI- STATIONARY FRONT WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER TEMPS ALOFT NORTH OF THIS FRONT. ANY LINGERING STRATUS/FOG WOULD ALSO THROW A WRENCH INTO THINGS...ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTHEAST. OVERALL I THINK TEMPS WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TODAY...WITH SLIGHTLY "COOLER" TEMPS NORTH OF THE FRONT JUST LIKE TODAY. EITHER WAY TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER 80S FOR MOST PARTS OF THE CWA SUNDAY...AND IF FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW COULD SUPPORT RECORD HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 115 AM MDT SUN OCT 26 2014 WEDNESDAY...SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS BEFORE EXITING THE AREA BY SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. 850MB TEMPERATURES WARM ABOUT 9F FROM TUESDAYS VALUES SUPPORTING HIGHS AROUND 70/LOW 70S ACROSS THE AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S WEST TO LOW 40S EAST. THURSDAY...HIGH AMPLIFIED RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY TOWARD THE AREA REACHING THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LOWERING 850MB TEMPERATURES ABOUT 9F ACROSS THE AREA SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. SFC RIDGE AXIS HOLDS FIRM ACROSS THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE FURTHER WEST LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS TO THE SOUTHEAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S BUT COULD SEE SLIGHTLY COLDER READINGS ACROSS THE EAST WHERE PROXIMITY TO SFC HIGH AND LIGHT WINDS LASTS LONGER WHEN COMPARED TO AREAS FURTHER WEST. HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE RIDGE AXIS APPROACHES. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. FRIDAY...GFS/ECMWF IS BETTER AGREEMENT THIS MORNING WITH TIMING OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WHICH IS NOW FORECAST TO BE OVER THE AREA BY DAYS END AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. AS THE SFC HIGH SLOWLY MOVES EAST AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES. STRONGEST SOUTHEAST WINDS GENERALLY ALONG/WEST OF THE COLORADO/KANSAS BORDER WHERE GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 30 MPH RANGE POSSIBLE. GFS SHOWING 850MB TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO THURSDAYS VALUES WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWING SOME COOLER AIR ACROSS THE AREA. BLENDING THE TWO GIVES HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S (EAST TO WEST). LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. SATURDAY...LARGE UPPER TROUGH JUST COMING ASHORE ACROSS THE WEST IN THE MORNING NEARLY REACHES THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING PUTTING THE FORECAST AREA UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. STRONGER SFC WINDS MIGRATE TO THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AS SFC TROUGH MOVES INTO EASTERN COLORADO. PLENTIFUL DRY AIR CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. 850MB TEMPERATURES WARM QUITE SIGNIFICANTLY AND WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S PER GFS SOLUTION...THE ECWMF QUITE A BIT COOLER SO WILL GO WITH CURRENT FORECAST OF LOW TO MID 60S FOR NOW. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1106 PM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014 VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT GLD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN AS VFR AT MCK AND TURN LIFR BETWEEN 11Z-14Z AS LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WITH COOLING TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 50S PRODUCE FOG AND LOW CEILINGS. CONDITIONS SHOULD RAPIDLY IMPROVE BACK TO VFR AFTER 14Z AS NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE AND DRYER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA AS TEMPERATURES ALSO INCREASE. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DR LONG TERM...99 AVIATION...LOCKHART
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1114 PM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 1253 PM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014 LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW LARGE SCALE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...EXTENDING NORTH INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS IN PLACE OVER SE COLORADO AND NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A STALLED FRONT IS BISECTING OUR CWA...EXTENDING FROM NE COLORADO TO CENTRAL KANSAS (ROUGHLY ALONG A KAKO-KGLD- KHYS LINE). WITH STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE AND MAIN STORM TRACK WELL NORTH OF THE CWA...PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AGAIN SUNDAY AND POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG TONIGHT. REGARDING DENSE FOG...NAM/RUC/HRRR RH AND VIS FIELDS CONTINUE TO SHOW POSSIBILITY OF DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT NORTH OF THE QUASI- STATIONARY FRONT. SREF PROBABILITIES ARE ALSO SHOWING THIS. LOCATION OF FRONT AND MOISTURE POOLING ALONG/NORTH OF THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY BE CRITICAL TO DENSE FOG LOCATION...IN ADDITION NEAR INVERSION LAYER WINDS 10-20KT MAY ALLOW FOR ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP VIS HIGHER UNTIL LOW LEVELS COMPLETELY DECOUPLE AROUND SUNRISE. THERE IS ALSO INDICATION FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS AND CURRENT GFS THAT FRONT WILL BE FURTHER NORTH AND EAST WHICH WOULD ALLOW LOWER TD VALUES TO ADVECT EASTWARD WITH SHIFT IN LOW LEVEL FLOW. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN FOG DEVELOPMENT...BUT LOCATION IS ENOUGH OF A QUESTION TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUANCE OF ADVISORY DURING DAYTIME UPDATE PACKAGE. TEMP FORECAST SUNDAY IS ALSO COMPLICATED BY POSITION OF QUASI- STATIONARY FRONT WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER TEMPS ALOFT NORTH OF THIS FRONT. ANY LINGERING STRATUS/FOG WOULD ALSO THROW A WRENCH INTO THINGS...ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTHEAST. OVERALL I THINK TEMPS WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TODAY...WITH SLIGHTLY "COOLER" TEMPS NORTH OF THE FRONT JUST LIKE TODAY. EITHER WAY TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER 80S FOR MOST PARTS OF THE CWA SUNDAY...AND IF FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW COULD SUPPORT RECORD HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 206 PM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014 UPPER FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AHEAD OF A TROUGH THAT MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST MONDAY NIGHT WITH NORTHWEST FLOW FOLLOWING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER TROUGH THAT COMES THROUGH HAS GOOD DYNAMICS BUT MOISTURE IS LACKING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE DRY LOW LEVELS WITH MARGINAL SATURATION AT MID LEVELS. ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION INTO MONDAY EVENING DUE TO THE TROUGH STILL OVER THE AREA, THE GFS AND NAM TAKE THE BEST MOISTURE EAST OF THE FA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MAY BE OPTIMISTIC BUT WILL KEEP THEM GOING. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO THE WINDY CATEGORY MONDAY WITH GUSTS FROM 25 TO 35KTS. WIND SPEEDS COULD INCREASE TO LOW END ADVISORY LEVELS. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT MONDAY NIGHT AND WITH CLOUDS CLEARING AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 20S, WIDESPREAD FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN COLORADO. TEMPERATURES MAY GET COLD ENOUGH FOR A HARD FREEZE IN EASTERN COLORADO. FOR NOW WILL KEEP FROST IN THE GRIDS AND MONITOR THE HARD FREEZE POTENTIAL. SUBSIDENCE FOLLOWS THE EXITING TROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FA SO POPS WILL BE NIL. MAX TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN EASTERN COLORADO TO THE LOWER/MID 60S IN THE EASTERN FA. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 40S SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN COOL TO THE LOWER TO MID 30S MONDAY NIGHT. IN THE EXTENDED...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)... NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE THAT WILL BUILD INTO THE ROCKIES THURSDAY AND INTO THE PLAINS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP POPS NIL THROUGH THIS PERIOD. MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THIS PART OF THE FORECAST WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S WEDNESDAY COOLING TO THE LOWER 60S THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD COOL TO THE MID 30S. SOME FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY TO THE MID AND UPPER 30S WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1106 PM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014 VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT GLD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN AS VFR AT MCK AND TURN LIFR BETWEEN 11Z-14Z AS LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WITH COOLING TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 50S PRODUCE FOG AND LOW CEILINGS. CONDITIONS SHOULD RAPIDLY IMPROVE BACK TO VFR AFTER 14Z AS NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE AND DRYER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA AS TEMPERATURES ALSO INCREASE. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DR LONG TERM...FS AVIATION...LOCKHART
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
207 PM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 207 PM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014 FORECAST IS ON TRACK THIS AFTERNOON. SUNNY SKIES AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE HELPING TO CREATE NEAR IDEAL OPPORTUNITIES TO GET OUTDOORS AND EXPERIENCE PERFECT AUTUMN LIKE WEATHER. UPDATED HOURLY GRIDS TO BRING THEM IN LINE WITH HOURLY OBSERVATIONS. NO OTHER ADJUSTMENTS ATTM. UPDATE ISSUED AT 1143 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014 UPDATED THE FORECAST PACKAGE TO REMOVE THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY. TWEAKED HOURLY GRIDS WHILE AT IT TO MATCH UP WITH MOST CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 1018 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014 QUICK UPDATE TO EXTEND THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY THIS MORNING. LOW AUTUMN SUN ANGLE HAS ALLOWED DENSE FOG TO LINGER LONGER THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED. UPDATED HOURLY GRIDS FOR LATEST TRENDS AS WELL. TRIED TO REFLECT THE LOWER RISE IN TEMPS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS FOR THOSE AREAS EXPERIENCING FOG AS WELL. UPDATE ISSUED AT 725 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014 THE DENSE FOG APPEARS TO BE RATHER STEADY STATE ACROSS THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY. BELIEVE THIS IS STILL ON TRACK TO BREAK UP AFTER 14Z. BASICALLY THIS UPDATE WAS MAINLY TO FINE TUNE THE TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT GRIDS BASED ON THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014 06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK COLD FRONT ON ITS WAY THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY. MUCH DRIER AIR IS FOUND JUST TO THE NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY AND TANTALIZINGLY CLOSE. HOWEVER...TO THE SOUTH HIGHER MOISTURE IS FOUND AND WITH THE CLEAR SKIES THIS IS RESULTING IN AREAS OF FOG THAT HAS BECOME LOCALLY DENSE. WILL BE GOING WITH A DENSE FOG ADVISORY EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH 14Z PER HRRR/GLAMP GUIDANCE. A RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT HAS DEVELOPED AGAIN TONIGHT WITH MANY LOW SPOTS RUNNING IN THE UPPER 40S WHILE RIDGES ARE HOLDING IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S. THE APPROACHING FRONT IS KEEPING THINGS A BIT MORE STIRRED IN THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA SO THE DIFFERENCES ARE SMALLER TO THE NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY. MEANWHILE...WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN THE VALLEYS WITH SOME NORTHWEST BREEZES NOTED IN NORTHERN PARTS OF EAST KENTUCKY. THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL TAKE A TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA ALLOWING THE FAST FLOW TO REBOUND OVER THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND AND START THE NEW WEEK. THUS...A MODERATELY STRONG RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER EAST KENTUCKY DURING THE DAY MONDAY WHILE THE NEXT TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH ITS ENERGY ZIPPING NORTHEAST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. AT LEAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM... THE RIDGE WILL KEEP THIS ENERGY AT BAY AND WELL AWAY FROM EASTERN KENTUCKY. GIVEN THE MODEL SIMILARITIES...HAVE GONE WITH A GENERAL BLEND OF THE MODELS WITH AN EMPHASIS ON THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM12 AND HRRR FOR WX DETAILS. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE AREAS OF DENSE FOG OVER THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA BURNING OFF BY MID MORNING...LEAVING BEHIND SUNNY SKIES THAT WILL HELP GIVE US ANOTHER WARM DAY. FOR TONIGHT...MILDER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...BUT THERE SHOULD BE LESS IN THE WAY OF FOG THOUGH...MORE LIMITED TO JUST THE DEEPER VALLEYS...WITH ANOTHER HEALTHY RIDGE AND VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT DEVELOPING. MONDAY WILL BE A VERY WARM DAY AS THE FRONT MOVES BACK NORTH THROUGH THE AREA AS A WARM ONE AND JUST SOME EXTRA CLOUDS. FOR MONDAY WE CAN EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR RECORD LEVELS ALONG WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AND SOUTHWEST WINDS. FOR THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS...USED THE CONSSHORT...AND ITS BC VERSION... AS A STARTING POINT THROUGH THE FIRST 18 TO 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST FOLLOWED BY THE SUPERBLEND. DID MAKE SOME CHANGES TO BETTER REFLECT THE RIDGE AND VALLEY DIFFERENCES ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AGAIN TONIGHT. POPS THOROUGH THE PERIOD REMAINS LOW...IN LINE WITH THE VALUES FROM THE MOS GUIDANCE. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014 MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT FOR TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...AND REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST FROM FRIDAY ONWARD INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THUS...HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST REMAINS FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. TO START THE PERIOD...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE PUSHING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH A SURFACE LOW TRACKING ACROSS MICHIGAN. THIS WILL FORCE A SURFACE COLD FRONT EASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON TUESDAY. AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH SHELTERED VALLEYS EXPECTED TO DECOUPLE...WE SHOULD SEE A GOOD RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT MONDAY NIGHT WITH VALLEYS POSSIBLY STILL REACHING THE 40S AND RIDGES CLOSER TO 60. ECMWF HAS MOVED TOWARDS THE FASTER GFS WITH THE FRONTAL TIMING...SO IT NOW LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH CLOUDS INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY. WENT WITH A STRONG GRADIENT IN POPS FROM EAST TO WEST AS IT NOW LOOKS LIKE RAIN SHOULD MAKE IT WELL INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY BY 00Z TUESDAY. PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST. GIVEN THE MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND THE INCREASED MODEL AGREEMENT...HAVE OPTED TO INCREASE POPS TO CATEGORICAL. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON TUESDAY...SO A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE FASTER TREND PUTTING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH CLEARING WE WILL SEE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY AS THIS WILL PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE ON WHERE HIGHS END UP IN THE AFTERNOON. MORE CLOUDS MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST MAY REFLECT. HOWEVER...OPTING TO SIDE WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER A BIT. REGARDLESS...IT WILL STILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER THAN THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...KEEPING THE WEATHER QUIET THROUGH THIS PERIOD. BY FRIDAY...MODEL DIFFERENCES BECOME TOO GREAT TO DISCERN HOW THINGS WILL UNFOLD. IT DOES LOOK LIKE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTHEAST AND BRING SUBSTANTIALLY COLDER AIR INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY FOR NEXT WEEKEND. HAVE OPTED TO STAY WELL BELOW GUIDANCE NEXT WEEKEND. IT LOOKS LIKE MOST SCENARIOS HAS THE AREA LOCKED IN A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUD COVER UNDERNEATH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...AT LEAST THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY. THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF NOW ARE BOTH FAVORABLE FOR A HARD FREEZE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS IS OUTSIDE OF THE HWO PERIOD...SO FOR NOW WILL JUST PLAN TO GO WITH SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY MORNING. ALSO...OPTING TO GO WITH SOME LOW POPS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. THE LATEST ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD SUPPORT SOME SNOW ON THE HIGH TERRAIN SATURDAY MORNING. LOOKS LIKE A CHILLY WEEKEND FOR HALLOWEEN FESTIVITIES. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 207 PM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014 IN GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SME MAY BE THE EXCEPTION...EXPERIENCING A FEW HOURS OF MVFR MIST OR LIGHT FOG THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS MONDAY. SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS THE AREA. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE HAS ALSO HELPED TO MIX DOWN SOME DRIER AIR THIS AFTERNOON FOR VERY PLEASANT CONDITIONS. BUT CHANGES ARE ON THE HORIZON. RETURN FLOW WILL BE DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT TO USHER IN A WARMER...MORE MOIST AIR MASS FROM THE SOUTH. AS A RESULT WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY WITH TIME AND INCREASE TO AROUND 5-8 KTS BY MONDAY AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS TO OUR WEST. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...RAY SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...KAS AVIATION...RAY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
120 PM EDT Sun Oct 26 2014 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... ...Forecast Update... Issued at 1114 AM EDT Sun Oct 26 2014 Area webcams and surface observations have shown improvement in visibilities over the past hour. Have allowed the Dense Fog Advisory to expire at 11 AM. A few lingering patches of fog will persist through midday, but overall conditions have improved enough to let the headline go. Otherwise, a pleasant and sunny day is in store. .SHORT TERM (Now through Monday)... Issued at 310 AM EDT Sun Oct 25 2014 ...Dense Fog This Morning...Near Record Warmth Monday... The near term forecast focus has been on locally dense fog that has developed across southern Kentucky this morning thanks to light/variable surface winds and a relatively moist air mass. Dewpoints range from the middle to upper 50s ahead of a weak surface boundary that lies to the north. Until this boundary pushes through the area later this morning, conditions will be ideal for radiation fog. The HRRR model has been capturing the fog very well and shows it lingering through mid morning before burning off. As such, a dense fog advisory has been issued for the southern part of the forecast area through mid morning to account for the expected impacts due to locally 1/4 mile visibilities or less. Once morning fog burns off, plan on a very pleasant day as high pressure will be the dominant weather feature. Sunny skies, light winds and above normal temperatures will be the rule. Compared to yesterday, highs will be a few degrees lower, thanks to some cooler air aloft that will work in from the northeast. Highs should still top out around 70 across the northeast forecast area to middle 70s in the southwest. The upper level pattern will then transition from zonal to southwesterly, paving the way for near record warmth for much of the Ohio River valley Monday. 26.00z model guidance remains very consistent with past model cycles showing that as a strong shortwave trough advances across the northern Plains, the ensuing southwesterly flow will bring a surge of +16 to +17C 850 mb air across the region. Soundings show mixing up to around 850 mb, so this supports highs in the lower to middle 80s. With near full sunshine, kept forecast highs on the warm side of guidance. 26.00z 850 mb temperature standardized anomalies vary from +2 to nearly +2.5 SD, which increases confidence in approaching records for Monday. It will also be a breezy day with winds gusting to 30 mph at times across much of the area. Below are the records for Monday and Monday night. Record Max Oct 27 Record Warm Low Oct 28 Louisville 84 (1940) 64 (1991 and 1984) Lexington 87 (1940) 64 (1984) Bowling Green 87 (1919) 65 (1984) Frankfort 89 (1940) 61 (1899) .LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)... Issued at 315 AM EDT Sun Oct 26 2014 After a warm and breezy night Monday night with lows generally in the 58-63 degree range, a cold front will advance into the region on Tuesday. Widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms will accompany the front, with just about everybody standing a chance at getting some rain. The front will be losing some of its punch as it enters the Ohio Valley and the best dynamics will be to our north across IN/OH, but we`ll still have a chance at some thunder here coincident with a narrow band of surface based instability around mid day. High temperatures should be in the 70s with winds gusting to around 20 or 25 mph (maybe some higher gusts in thunderstorms). Tuesday night the front will push off to the east and our showers will taper off from northwest to southeast. There could still be a few left over rumbles of thunder in the Lake Cumberland region during the evening hours. General rainfall totals are progged in the quarter to half inch range, though amounts will vary with the convective nature of the precipitation. Overnight lows behind the front will be in the 40s. During the remainder of the week several waves will pass overhead in progressive WNW flow, but a lack of deep moisture for these waves to work with will lead to a mostly dry forecast for now. Daily highs will decrease from around 60 on Wednesday to around 50 (probably 40s in the Blue Grass) on Saturday as Canadian high pressure dives SSE right into the Ohio Valley by the weekend. Morning lows on Saturday should be around the freezing mark, and below freezing Saturday night. && .AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)... Updated at 120 PM EDT Sun Oct 26 2014 VFR conditions will prevail the remainder of this afternoon and evening with light and variable winds as surface high pressure slides across the region. Tricky forecast for the overnight period as a warm front lifts back north across the area. Expect to see deteriorating conditions after Midnight at BWG as most likely scenario will be low stratus. Data suggest ceilings could go down around minimums. Some data suggests fog, however think that stronger low level jetting will be more conducive to low stratus than fog. Also a bit concerned about low level wind shear potential at the interface of the warm front where nearly calm surface winds will be below a veering and strengthening low level jet around 30 knots. At this point, think it will be too marginal, however will continue to monitor with future forecasts. SDF can expect the low stratus to begin sometime in the pre-dawn hours, generally aroun 4 AM EDT, with LEX a couple hours later. Conditions will scatter out by late morning and early afternoon, with a strong SW gradient taking over. Gusts to 30 mph will be possible. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ Update.........BJS Short Term.....ZBT Long Term......13 Aviation.......BJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1143 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1143 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014 UPDATED THE FORECAST PACKAGE TO REMOVE THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY. TWEAKED HOURLY GRIDS WHILE AT IT TO MATCH UP WITH MOST CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 1018 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014 QUICK UPDATE TO EXTEND THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY THIS MORNING. LOW AUTUMN SUN ANGLE HAS ALLOWED DENSE FOG TO LINGER LONGER THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED. UPDATED HOURLY GRIDS FOR LATEST TRENDS AS WELL. TRIED TO REFLECT THE LOWER RISE IN TEMPS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS FOR THOSE AREAS EXPERIENCING FOG AS WELL. UPDATE ISSUED AT 725 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014 THE DENSE FOG APPEARS TO BE RATHER STEADY STATE ACROSS THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY. BELIEVE THIS IS STILL ON TRACK TO BREAK UP AFTER 14Z. BASICALLY THIS UPDATE WAS MAINLY TO FINE TUNE THE TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT GRIDS BASED ON THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014 06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK COLD FRONT ON ITS WAY THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY. MUCH DRIER AIR IS FOUND JUST TO THE NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY AND TANTALIZINGLY CLOSE. HOWEVER...TO THE SOUTH HIGHER MOISTURE IS FOUND AND WITH THE CLEAR SKIES THIS IS RESULTING IN AREAS OF FOG THAT HAS BECOME LOCALLY DENSE. WILL BE GOING WITH A DENSE FOG ADVISORY EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH 14Z PER HRRR/GLAMP GUIDANCE. A RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT HAS DEVELOPED AGAIN TONIGHT WITH MANY LOW SPOTS RUNNING IN THE UPPER 40S WHILE RIDGES ARE HOLDING IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S. THE APPROACHING FRONT IS KEEPING THINGS A BIT MORE STIRRED IN THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA SO THE DIFFERENCES ARE SMALLER TO THE NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY. MEANWHILE...WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN THE VALLEYS WITH SOME NORTHWEST BREEZES NOTED IN NORTHERN PARTS OF EAST KENTUCKY. THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL TAKE A TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA ALLOWING THE FAST FLOW TO REBOUND OVER THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND AND START THE NEW WEEK. THUS...A MODERATELY STRONG RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER EAST KENTUCKY DURING THE DAY MONDAY WHILE THE NEXT TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH ITS ENERGY ZIPPING NORTHEAST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. AT LEAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM... THE RIDGE WILL KEEP THIS ENERGY AT BAY AND WELL AWAY FROM EASTERN KENTUCKY. GIVEN THE MODEL SIMILARITIES...HAVE GONE WITH A GENERAL BLEND OF THE MODELS WITH AN EMPHASIS ON THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM12 AND HRRR FOR WX DETAILS. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE AREAS OF DENSE FOG OVER THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA BURNING OFF BY MID MORNING...LEAVING BEHIND SUNNY SKIES THAT WILL HELP GIVE US ANOTHER WARM DAY. FOR TONIGHT...MILDER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...BUT THERE SHOULD BE LESS IN THE WAY OF FOG THOUGH...MORE LIMITED TO JUST THE DEEPER VALLEYS...WITH ANOTHER HEALTHY RIDGE AND VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT DEVELOPING. MONDAY WILL BE A VERY WARM DAY AS THE FRONT MOVES BACK NORTH THROUGH THE AREA AS A WARM ONE AND JUST SOME EXTRA CLOUDS. FOR MONDAY WE CAN EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR RECORD LEVELS ALONG WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AND SOUTHWEST WINDS. FOR THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS...USED THE CONSSHORT...AND ITS BC VERSION... AS A STARTING POINT THROUGH THE FIRST 18 TO 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST FOLLOWED BY THE SUPERBLEND. DID MAKE SOME CHANGES TO BETTER REFLECT THE RIDGE AND VALLEY DIFFERENCES ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AGAIN TONIGHT. POPS THOROUGH THE PERIOD REMAINS LOW...IN LINE WITH THE VALUES FROM THE MOS GUIDANCE. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014 MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT FOR TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...AND REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST FROM FRIDAY ONWARD INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THUS...HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST REMAINS FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. TO START THE PERIOD...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE PUSHING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH A SURFACE LOW TRACKING ACROSS MICHIGAN. THIS WILL FORCE A SURFACE COLD FRONT EASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON TUESDAY. AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH SHELTERED VALLEYS EXPECTED TO DECOUPLE...WE SHOULD SEE A GOOD RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT MONDAY NIGHT WITH VALLEYS POSSIBLY STILL REACHING THE 40S AND RIDGES CLOSER TO 60. ECMWF HAS MOVED TOWARDS THE FASTER GFS WITH THE FRONTAL TIMING...SO IT NOW LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH CLOUDS INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY. WENT WITH A STRONG GRADIENT IN POPS FROM EAST TO WEST AS IT NOW LOOKS LIKE RAIN SHOULD MAKE IT WELL INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY BY 00Z TUESDAY. PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST. GIVEN THE MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND THE INCREASED MODEL AGREEMENT...HAVE OPTED TO INCREASE POPS TO CATEGORICAL. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON TUESDAY...SO A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE FASTER TREND PUTTING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH CLEARING WE WILL SEE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY AS THIS WILL PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE ON WHERE HIGHS END UP IN THE AFTERNOON. MORE CLOUDS MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST MAY REFLECT. HOWEVER...OPTING TO SIDE WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER A BIT. REGARDLESS...IT WILL STILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER THAN THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...KEEPING THE WEATHER QUIET THROUGH THIS PERIOD. BY FRIDAY...MODEL DIFFERENCES BECOME TOO GREAT TO DISCERN HOW THINGS WILL UNFOLD. IT DOES LOOK LIKE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTHEAST AND BRING SUBSTANTIALLY COLDER AIR INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY FOR NEXT WEEKEND. HAVE OPTED TO STAY WELL BELOW GUIDANCE NEXT WEEKEND. IT LOOKS LIKE MOST SCENARIOS HAS THE AREA LOCKED IN A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUD COVER UNDERNEATH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...AT LEAST THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY. THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF NOW ARE BOTH FAVORABLE FOR A HARD FREEZE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS IS OUTSIDE OF THE HWO PERIOD...SO FOR NOW WILL JUST PLAN TO GO WITH SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY MORNING. ALSO...OPTING TO GO WITH SOME LOW POPS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. THE LATEST ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD SUPPORT SOME SNOW ON THE HIGH TERRAIN SATURDAY MORNING. LOOKS LIKE A CHILLY WEEKEND FOR HALLOWEEN FESTIVITIES. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 740 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014 DENSE FOG AS ENGULFED THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY TAF SITES WITH VLIFR CONDITIONS. THESE SHOULD START TO IMPROVE AFTER 14Z. FOR THIS HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO DURING THE TRANSITION TO VFR. ONCE THE FOG BURNS OFF...EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT GENERALLY FROM THE NORTHWEST. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...RAY SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...KAS AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
1114 AM EDT Sun Oct 26 2014 ...Forecast Update... Issued at 1114 AM EDT Sun Oct 26 2014 Area webcams and surface observations have shown improvement in visibilities over the past hour. Have allowed the Dense Fog Advisory to expire at 11 AM. A few lingering patches of fog will persist through midday, but overall conditions have improved enough to let the headline go. Otherwise, a pleasant and sunny day is in store. .SHORT TERM (Now through Monday)... Issued at 310 AM EDT Sun Oct 25 2014 ...Dense Fog This Morning...Near Record Warmth Monday... The near term forecast focus has been on locally dense fog that has developed across southern Kentucky this morning thanks to light/variable surface winds and a relatively moist air mass. Dewpoints range from the middle to upper 50s ahead of a weak surface boundary that lies to the north. Until this boundary pushes through the area later this morning, conditions will be ideal for radiation fog. The HRRR model has been capturing the fog very well and shows it lingering through mid morning before burning off. As such, a dense fog advisory has been issued for the southern part of the forecast area through mid morning to account for the expected impacts due to locally 1/4 mile visibilities or less. Once morning fog burns off, plan on a very pleasant day as high pressure will be the dominant weather feature. Sunny skies, light winds and above normal temperatures will be the rule. Compared to yesterday, highs will be a few degrees lower, thanks to some cooler air aloft that will work in from the northeast. Highs should still top out around 70 across the northeast forecast area to middle 70s in the southwest. The upper level pattern will then transition from zonal to southwesterly, paving the way for near record warmth for much of the Ohio River valley Monday. 26.00z model guidance remains very consistent with past model cycles showing that as a strong shortwave trough advances across the northern Plains, the ensuing southwesterly flow will bring a surge of +16 to +17C 850 mb air across the region. Soundings show mixing up to around 850 mb, so this supports highs in the lower to middle 80s. With near full sunshine, kept forecast highs on the warm side of guidance. 26.00z 850 mb temperature standardized anomalies vary from +2 to nearly +2.5 SD, which increases confidence in approaching records for Monday. It will also be a breezy day with winds gusting to 30 mph at times across much of the area. Below are the records for Monday and Monday night. Record Max Oct 27 Record Warm Low Oct 28 Louisville 84 (1940) 64 (1991 and 1984) Lexington 87 (1940) 64 (1984) Bowling Green 87 (1919) 65 (1984) Frankfort 89 (1940) 61 (1899) .LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)... Issued at 315 AM EDT Sun Oct 26 2014 After a warm and breezy night Monday night with lows generally in the 58-63 degree range, a cold front will advance into the region on Tuesday. Widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms will accompany the front, with just about everybody standing a chance at getting some rain. The front will be losing some of its punch as it enters the Ohio Valley and the best dynamics will be to our north across IN/OH, but we`ll still have a chance at some thunder here coincident with a narrow band of surface based instability around mid day. High temperatures should be in the 70s with winds gusting to around 20 or 25 mph (maybe some higher gusts in thunderstorms). Tuesday night the front will push off to the east and our showers will taper off from northwest to southeast. There could still be a few left over rumbles of thunder in the Lake Cumberland region during the evening hours. General rainfall totals are progged in the quarter to half inch range, though amounts will vary with the convective nature of the precipitation. Overnight lows behind the front will be in the 40s. During the remainder of the week several waves will pass overhead in progressive WNW flow, but a lack of deep moisture for these waves to work with will lead to a mostly dry forecast for now. Daily highs will decrease from around 60 on Wednesday to around 50 (probably 40s in the Blue Grass) on Saturday as Canadian high pressure dives SSE right into the Ohio Valley by the weekend. Morning lows on Saturday should be around the freezing mark, and below freezing Saturday night. && .AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)... Updated at 620 AM EDT Sun Oct 26 2014 1/4sm fog will continue to impact BWG through around 13z this morning, then slowly erode as drier air finally makes its way south. High pressure and light/variable winds will then be the rule for the afternoon, providing VFR conditions to all TAF sites. Late tonight, numerical guidance is once again suggesting that BWG will go down in fog but with an increasing southwesterly flow /20 kts at 500 feet/ feel the setup is not as favorable for fog. Another plausible scenario, which is reflected in some of the forecast models, is that the low stratus currently across western TN and southwest KY will not fully mix out today and then advect toward BWG later tonight with the southwest wind push. Not very confident in this scenario either but brought in a scattered MVFR cloud deck at BWG to suggest the possibility. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ Update.........BJS Short Term.....ZBT Long Term......13 Aviation.......ZBT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1018 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1018 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014 QUICK UPDATE TO EXTEND THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY THIS MORNING. LOW AUTUMN SUN ANGLE HAS ALLOWED DENSE FOG TO LINGER LONGER THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED. UPDATED HOURLY GRIDS FOR LATEST TRENDS AS WELL. TRIED TO REFLECT THE LOWER RISE IN TEMPS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS FOR THOSE AREAS EXPERIENCING FOG AS WELL. UPDATE ISSUED AT 725 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014 THE DENSE FOG APPEARS TO BE RATHER STEADY STATE ACROSS THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY. BELIEVE THIS IS STILL ON TRACK TO BREAK UP AFTER 14Z. BASICALLY THIS UPDATE WAS MAINLY TO FINE TUNE THE TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT GRIDS BASED ON THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014 06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK COLD FRONT ON ITS WAY THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY. MUCH DRIER AIR IS FOUND JUST TO THE NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY AND TANTALIZINGLY CLOSE. HOWEVER...TO THE SOUTH HIGHER MOISTURE IS FOUND AND WITH THE CLEAR SKIES THIS IS RESULTING IN AREAS OF FOG THAT HAS BECOME LOCALLY DENSE. WILL BE GOING WITH A DENSE FOG ADVISORY EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH 14Z PER HRRR/GLAMP GUIDANCE. A RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT HAS DEVELOPED AGAIN TONIGHT WITH MANY LOW SPOTS RUNNING IN THE UPPER 40S WHILE RIDGES ARE HOLDING IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S. THE APPROACHING FRONT IS KEEPING THINGS A BIT MORE STIRRED IN THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA SO THE DIFFERENCES ARE SMALLER TO THE NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY. MEANWHILE...WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN THE VALLEYS WITH SOME NORTHWEST BREEZES NOTED IN NORTHERN PARTS OF EAST KENTUCKY. THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL TAKE A TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA ALLOWING THE FAST FLOW TO REBOUND OVER THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND AND START THE NEW WEEK. THUS...A MODERATELY STRONG RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER EAST KENTUCKY DURING THE DAY MONDAY WHILE THE NEXT TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH ITS ENERGY ZIPPING NORTHEAST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. AT LEAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM... THE RIDGE WILL KEEP THIS ENERGY AT BAY AND WELL AWAY FROM EASTERN KENTUCKY. GIVEN THE MODEL SIMILARITIES...HAVE GONE WITH A GENERAL BLEND OF THE MODELS WITH AN EMPHASIS ON THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM12 AND HRRR FOR WX DETAILS. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE AREAS OF DENSE FOG OVER THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA BURNING OFF BY MID MORNING...LEAVING BEHIND SUNNY SKIES THAT WILL HELP GIVE US ANOTHER WARM DAY. FOR TONIGHT...MILDER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...BUT THERE SHOULD BE LESS IN THE WAY OF FOG THOUGH...MORE LIMITED TO JUST THE DEEPER VALLEYS...WITH ANOTHER HEALTHY RIDGE AND VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT DEVELOPING. MONDAY WILL BE A VERY WARM DAY AS THE FRONT MOVES BACK NORTH THROUGH THE AREA AS A WARM ONE AND JUST SOME EXTRA CLOUDS. FOR MONDAY WE CAN EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR RECORD LEVELS ALONG WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AND SOUTHWEST WINDS. FOR THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS...USED THE CONSSHORT...AND ITS BC VERSION... AS A STARTING POINT THROUGH THE FIRST 18 TO 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST FOLLOWED BY THE SUPERBLEND. DID MAKE SOME CHANGES TO BETTER REFLECT THE RIDGE AND VALLEY DIFFERENCES ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AGAIN TONIGHT. POPS THOROUGH THE PERIOD REMAINS LOW...IN LINE WITH THE VALUES FROM THE MOS GUIDANCE. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014 MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT FOR TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...AND REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST FROM FRIDAY ONWARD INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THUS...HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST REMAINS FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. TO START THE PERIOD...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE PUSHING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH A SURFACE LOW TRACKING ACROSS MICHIGAN. THIS WILL FORCE A SURFACE COLD FRONT EASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON TUESDAY. AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH SHELTERED VALLEYS EXPECTED TO DECOUPLE...WE SHOULD SEE A GOOD RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT MONDAY NIGHT WITH VALLEYS POSSIBLY STILL REACHING THE 40S AND RIDGES CLOSER TO 60. ECMWF HAS MOVED TOWARDS THE FASTER GFS WITH THE FRONTAL TIMING...SO IT NOW LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH CLOUDS INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY. WENT WITH A STRONG GRADIENT IN POPS FROM EAST TO WEST AS IT NOW LOOKS LIKE RAIN SHOULD MAKE IT WELL INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY BY 00Z TUESDAY. PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST. GIVEN THE MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND THE INCREASED MODEL AGREEMENT...HAVE OPTED TO INCREASE POPS TO CATEGORICAL. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON TUESDAY...SO A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE FASTER TREND PUTTING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH CLEARING WE WILL SEE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY AS THIS WILL PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE ON WHERE HIGHS END UP IN THE AFTERNOON. MORE CLOUDS MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST MAY REFLECT. HOWEVER...OPTING TO SIDE WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER A BIT. REGARDLESS...IT WILL STILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER THAN THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...KEEPING THE WEATHER QUIET THROUGH THIS PERIOD. BY FRIDAY...MODEL DIFFERENCES BECOME TOO GREAT TO DISCERN HOW THINGS WILL UNFOLD. IT DOES LOOK LIKE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTHEAST AND BRING SUBSTANTIALLY COLDER AIR INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY FOR NEXT WEEKEND. HAVE OPTED TO STAY WELL BELOW GUIDANCE NEXT WEEKEND. IT LOOKS LIKE MOST SCENARIOS HAS THE AREA LOCKED IN A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUD COVER UNDERNEATH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...AT LEAST THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY. THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF NOW ARE BOTH FAVORABLE FOR A HARD FREEZE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS IS OUTSIDE OF THE HWO PERIOD...SO FOR NOW WILL JUST PLAN TO GO WITH SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY MORNING. ALSO...OPTING TO GO WITH SOME LOW POPS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. THE LATEST ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD SUPPORT SOME SNOW ON THE HIGH TERRAIN SATURDAY MORNING. LOOKS LIKE A CHILLY WEEKEND FOR HALLOWEEN FESTIVITIES. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 740 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014 DENSE FOG AS ENGULFED THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY TAF SITES WITH VLIFR CONDITIONS. THESE SHOULD START TO IMPROVE AFTER 14Z. FOR THIS HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO DURING THE TRANSITION TO VFR. ONCE THE FOG BURNS OFF...EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT GENERALLY FROM THE NORTHWEST. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR KYZ068-069- 079-080-083>088-116-117. && $$ UPDATE...RAY SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...KAS AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
740 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 725 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014 THE DENSE FOG APPEARS TO BE RATHER STEADY STATE ACROSS THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY. BELIEVE THIS IS STILL ON TRACK TO BREAK UP AFTER 14Z. BASICALLY THIS UPDATE WAS MAINLY TO FINE TUNE THE TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT GRIDS BASED ON THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014 06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK COLD FRONT ON ITS WAY THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY. MUCH DRIER AIR IS FOUND JUST TO THE NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY AND TANTALIZINGLY CLOSE. HOWEVER...TO THE SOUTH HIGHER MOISTURE IS FOUND AND WITH THE CLEAR SKIES THIS IS RESULTING IN AREAS OF FOG THAT HAS BECOME LOCALLY DENSE. WILL BE GOING WITH A DENSE FOG ADVISORY EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH 14Z PER HRRR/GLAMP GUIDANCE. A RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT HAS DEVELOPED AGAIN TONIGHT WITH MANY LOW SPOTS RUNNING IN THE UPPER 40S WHILE RIDGES ARE HOLDING IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S. THE APPROACHING FRONT IS KEEPING THINGS A BIT MORE STIRRED IN THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA SO THE DIFFERENCES ARE SMALLER TO THE NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY. MEANWHILE...WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN THE VALLEYS WITH SOME NORTHWEST BREEZES NOTED IN NORTHERN PARTS OF EAST KENTUCKY. THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL TAKE A TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA ALLOWING THE FAST FLOW TO REBOUND OVER THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND AND START THE NEW WEEK. THUS...A MODERATELY STRONG RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER EAST KENTUCKY DURING THE DAY MONDAY WHILE THE NEXT TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH ITS ENERGY ZIPPING NORTHEAST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. AT LEAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM... THE RIDGE WILL KEEP THIS ENERGY AT BAY AND WELL AWAY FROM EASTERN KENTUCKY. GIVEN THE MODEL SIMILARITIES...HAVE GONE WITH A GENERAL BLEND OF THE MODELS WITH AN EMPHASIS ON THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM12 AND HRRR FOR WX DETAILS. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE AREAS OF DENSE FOG OVER THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA BURNING OFF BY MID MORNING...LEAVING BEHIND SUNNY SKIES THAT WILL HELP GIVE US ANOTHER WARM DAY. FOR TONIGHT...MILDER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...BUT THERE SHOULD BE LESS IN THE WAY OF FOG THOUGH...MORE LIMITED TO JUST THE DEEPER VALLEYS...WITH ANOTHER HEALTHY RIDGE AND VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT DEVELOPING. MONDAY WILL BE A VERY WARM DAY AS THE FRONT MOVES BACK NORTH THROUGH THE AREA AS A WARM ONE AND JUST SOME EXTRA CLOUDS. FOR MONDAY WE CAN EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR RECORD LEVELS ALONG WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AND SOUTHWEST WINDS. FOR THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS...USED THE CONSSHORT...AND ITS BC VERSION... AS A STARTING POINT THROUGH THE FIRST 18 TO 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST FOLLOWED BY THE SUPERBLEND. DID MAKE SOME CHANGES TO BETTER REFLECT THE RIDGE AND VALLEY DIFFERENCES ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AGAIN TONIGHT. POPS THOROUGH THE PERIOD REMAINS LOW...IN LINE WITH THE VALUES FROM THE MOS GUIDANCE. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014 MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT FOR TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...AND REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST FROM FRIDAY ONWARD INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THUS...HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST REMAINS FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. TO START THE PERIOD...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE PUSHING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH A SURFACE LOW TRACKING ACROSS MICHIGAN. THIS WILL FORCE A SURFACE COLD FRONT EASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON TUESDAY. AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH SHELTERED VALLEYS EXPECTED TO DECOUPLE...WE SHOULD SEE A GOOD RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT MONDAY NIGHT WITH VALLEYS POSSIBLY STILL REACHING THE 40S AND RIDGES CLOSER TO 60. ECMWF HAS MOVED TOWARDS THE FASTER GFS WITH THE FRONTAL TIMING...SO IT NOW LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH CLOUDS INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY. WENT WITH A STRONG GRADIENT IN POPS FROM EAST TO WEST AS IT NOW LOOKS LIKE RAIN SHOULD MAKE IT WELL INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY BY 00Z TUESDAY. PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST. GIVEN THE MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND THE INCREASED MODEL AGREEMENT...HAVE OPTED TO INCREASE POPS TO CATEGORICAL. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON TUESDAY...SO A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE FASTER TREND PUTTING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH CLEARING WE WILL SEE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY AS THIS WILL PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE ON WHERE HIGHS END UP IN THE AFTERNOON. MORE CLOUDS MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST MAY REFLECT. HOWEVER...OPTING TO SIDE WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER A BIT. REGARDLESS...IT WILL STILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER THAN THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...KEEPING THE WEATHER QUIET THROUGH THIS PERIOD. BY FRIDAY...MODEL DIFFERENCES BECOME TOO GREAT TO DISCERN HOW THINGS WILL UNFOLD. IT DOES LOOK LIKE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTHEAST AND BRING SUBSTANTIALLY COLDER AIR INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY FOR NEXT WEEKEND. HAVE OPTED TO STAY WELL BELOW GUIDANCE NEXT WEEKEND. IT LOOKS LIKE MOST SCENARIOS HAS THE AREA LOCKED IN A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUD COVER UNDERNEATH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...AT LEAST THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY. THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF NOW ARE BOTH FAVORABLE FOR A HARD FREEZE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS IS OUTSIDE OF THE HWO PERIOD...SO FOR NOW WILL JUST PLAN TO GO WITH SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY MORNING. ALSO...OPTING TO GO WITH SOME LOW POPS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. THE LATEST ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD SUPPORT SOME SNOW ON THE HIGH TERRAIN SATURDAY MORNING. LOOKS LIKE A CHILLY WEEKEND FOR HALLOWEEN FESTIVITIES. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 740 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014 DENSE FOG AS ENGULFED THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY TAF SITES WITH VLIFR CONDITIONS. THESE SHOULD START TO IMPROVE AFTER 14Z. FOR THIS HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO DURING THE TRANSITION TO VFR. ONCE THE FOG BURNS OFF...EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT GENERALLY FROM THE NORTHWEST. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR KYZ068-069- 079-080-083>088-116-117. && $$ UPDATE...GREIF SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...KAS AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
638 AM EDT Sun Oct 26 2014 ...Updated Aviation and Forecast Discussions... ...Forecast Update... Issued at 635 AM EDT Sun Oct 26 2014 No major changes to forecast in the near term regarding dense fog advisory. Observations continue to show that visibilities remain less than 1/4 mile across the southern tier of the forecast area. The drier air mass is slowly working its way south, which will help to improve conditions. Based on the latest timing, it will take a couple more hours, so the dense fog advisory still looks good through 9 AM EDT. .SHORT TERM (Now through Monday)... Issued at 310 AM EDT Sun Oct 25 2014 ...Dense Fog This Morning...Near Record Warmth Monday... The near term forecast focus has been on locally dense fog that has developed across southern Kentucky this morning thanks to light/variable surface winds and a relatively moist air mass. Dewpoints range from the middle to upper 50s ahead of a weak surface boundary that lies to the north. Until this boundary pushes through the area later this morning, conditions will be ideal for radiation fog. The HRRR model has been capturing the fog very well and shows it lingering through mid morning before burning off. As such, a dense fog advisory has been issued for the southern part of the forecast area through mid morning to account for the expected impacts due to locally 1/4 mile visibilities or less. Once morning fog burns off, plan on a very pleasant day as high pressure will be the dominant weather feature. Sunny skies, light winds and above normal temperatures will be the rule. Compared to yesterday, highs will be a few degrees lower, thanks to some cooler air aloft that will work in from the northeast. Highs should still top out around 70 across the northeast forecast area to middle 70s in the southwest. The upper level pattern will then transition from zonal to southwesterly, paving the way for near record warmth for much of the Ohio River valley Monday. 26.00z model guidance remains very consistent with past model cycles showing that as a strong shortwave trough advances across the northern Plains, the ensuing southwesterly flow will bring a surge of +16 to +17C 850 mb air across the region. Soundings show mixing up to around 850 mb, so this supports highs in the lower to middle 80s. With near full sunshine, kept forecast highs on the warm side of guidance. 26.00z 850 mb temperature standardized anomalies vary from +2 to nearly +2.5 SD, which increases confidence in approaching records for Monday. It will also be a breezy day with winds gusting to 30 mph at times across much of the area. Below are the records for Monday and Monday night. Record Max Oct 27 Record Warm Low Oct 28 Louisville 84 (1940) 64 (1991 and 1984) Lexington 87 (1940) 64 (1984) Bowling Green 87 (1919) 65 (1984) Frankfort 89 (1940) 61 (1899) .LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)... Issued at 315 AM EDT Sun Oct 26 2014 After a warm and breezy night Monday night with lows generally in the 58-63 degree range, a cold front will advance into the region on Tuesday. Widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms will accompany the front, with just about everybody standing a chance at getting some rain. The front will be losing some of its punch as it enters the Ohio Valley and the best dynamics will be to our north across IN/OH, but we`ll still have a chance at some thunder here coincident with a narrow band of surface based instability around mid day. High temperatures should be in the 70s with winds gusting to around 20 or 25 mph (maybe some higher gusts in thunderstorms). Tuesday night the front will push off to the east and our showers will taper off from northwest to southeast. There could still be a few left over rumbles of thunder in the Lake Cumberland region during the evening hours. General rainfall totals are progged in the quarter to half inch range, though amounts will vary with the convective nature of the precipitation. Overnight lows behind the front will be in the 40s. During the remainder of the week several waves will pass overhead in progressive WNW flow, but a lack of deep moisture for these waves to work with will lead to a mostly dry forecast for now. Daily highs will decrease from around 60 on Wednesday to around 50 (probably 40s in the Blue Grass) on Saturday as Canadian high pressure dives SSE right into the Ohio Valley by the weekend. Morning lows on Saturday should be around the freezing mark, and below freezing Saturday night. && .AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)... Updated at 620 AM EDT Sun Oct 26 2014 1/4sm fog will continue to impact BWG through around 13z this morning, then slowly erode as drier air finally makes its way south. High pressure and light/variable winds will then be the rule for the afternoon, providing VFR conditions to all TAF sites. Late tonight, numerical guidance is once again suggesting that BWG will go down in fog but with an increasing southwesterly flow /20 kts at 500 feet/ feel the setup is not as favorable for fog. Another plausible scenario, which is reflected in some of the forecast models, is that the low stratus currently across western TN and southwest KY will not fully mix out today and then advect toward BWG later tonight with the southwest wind push. Not very confident in this scenario either but a MVFR cloud deck may happen at BWG after 06z tonight. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 10 AM EDT /9 AM CDT/ this morning FOR KYZ026-027-061>067-070>078-081-082. IN...NONE. && $$ Update.........ZBT Short Term.....ZBT Long Term......13 Aviation.......ZBT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
338 AM EDT Sun Oct 26 2014 .SHORT TERM (Now through Monday)... Issued at 310 AM EDT Sun Oct 25 2014 ...Dense Fog This Morning...Near Record Warmth Monday... The near term forecast focus has been on dense fog that has developed across southern into central Kentucky this morning thanks to light/variable surface winds and a relatively moist air mass characterized by dewpoints in the middle to upper 50s. This is all ahead of a weak surface boundary that lies to the north. Until this boundary pushes through the area later this morning, conditions will remain ideal for radiation fog. The HRRR model has been capturing the fog very well and shows it lingering through mid morning before burning off. As such, a dense fog advisory has been issued for the southern part of the forecast area through mid morning to account for the expected impacts due to locally 1/4 mile visibilities or less. Once morning fog burns off, plan on a very pleasant day as high pressure will be the dominant weather feature. Sunny skies, light winds and above normal temperatures will be the rule. Compared to yesterday, highs will be a few degrees lower, thanks to cooler air aloft that will work in from the northeast. Highs should still top out around 70 across the northeast forecast area to middle 70s in the southwest. The upper level pattern will then transition from zonal to southwesterly, paving the way for near record warmth for much of the Ohio River valley Monday. 26.00z model guidance remains very consistent with past model cycles showing that as a strong shortwave trough advances across the northern Plains, the ensuing southwesterly flow will bring a surge of +16 to +17C 850 mb air across the region. Soundings show mixing up to around 850 mb, so this supports highs in the lower to middle 80s. With near full sunshine, kept forecast highs on the warm side of guidance. 26.00z 850 mb temperature standardized anomalies vary from +2 to nearly +2.5 SD, which increases confidence in approaching records for Monday. It will also be a breezy day with winds gusting to 30 mph at times across much of the area. Below are the records for Monday and Monday night. Record Max Oct 27 Record Warm Low Oct 28 Louisville 84 (1940) 64 (1991 and 1984) Lexington 87 (1940) 64 (1984) Bowling Green 87 (1919) 65 (1984) Frankfort 89 (1940) 61 (1899) .LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)... Issued at 315 AM EDT Sun Oct 26 2014 After a warm and breezy night Monday night with lows generally in the 58-63 degree range, a cold front will advance into the region on Tuesday. Widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms will accompany the front, with just about everybody standing a chance at getting some rain. The front will be losing some of its punch as it enters the Ohio Valley and the best dynamics will be to our north across MI/IN/OH, but we`ll still have a chance at some thunder here coincident with a narrow band of surface based instability around mid day. High temperatures should be in the 70s with winds gusting to around 20 or 25 mph. Tuesday night the front will push off to the east and our showers will taper off from northwest to southeast. There could still be a few left over rumbles of thunder in the Lake Cumberland region during the evening hours. General rainfall totals are progged in the quarter to half inch range, though amounts will vary with the convective nature of the precipitation. Overnight lows behind the front will be in the 40s. During the remainder of the week several waves will pass overhead in progressive WNW flow, but a lack of deep moisture for these waves to work with will lead to a mostly dry forecast for now. Daily highs will decrease from around 60 on Wednesday to around 50 (probably 40s in the Blue Grass) on Saturday as Canadian high pressure dives SSE right into the Ohio Valley by the weekend. Morning lows on Saturday should be around the freezing mark, and below freezing Saturday night. && .AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)... Updated at 110 AM EDT Sun Oct 26 2014 Main aviation concern is fog development in the very near term at BWG and to some degree at LEX. Higher low-level moisture pool ahead of a boundary that lies across southern Indiana combined with light/variable surface winds has resulted in MVFR fog at BWG and surrounding sites. Although latest forecast guidance does not suggest a long period of IFR conditions to develop at BWG, soundings show favorable light surface winds and near surface saturation to linger through the early morning hours. However, just off the surface /950 mb/ winds remain elevated overnight and this may limit dense fog formation. For now, will continue tempo period of IFR for early this morning at BWG but confidence is not very high. At LEX, patchy MVFR fog remains a possibility while VFR conditions will prevail at SDF. Otherwise, once morning fog burns off, weak high pressure and drier air will work into the region so plan on sunny skies and light/variable winds for the TAF sites. By late in the period, winds will begin to take on a southerly flow but remain less than 5 kts. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 10 AM EDT /9 AM CDT/ this morning FOR KYZ026-027-061>067-070>078-081-082. IN...NONE. && $$ Short Term........ZBT Long Term.........13 Aviation..........ZBT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
320 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014 06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK COLD FRONT ON ITS WAY THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY. MUCH DRIER AIR IS FOUND JUST TO THE NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY AND TANTALIZINGLY CLOSE. HOWEVER...TO THE SOUTH HIGHER MOISTURE IS FOUND AND WITH THE CLEAR SKIES THIS IS RESULTING IN AREAS OF FOG THAT HAS BECOME LOCALLY DENSE. WILL BE GOING WITH A DENSE FOG ADVISORY EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH 14Z PER HRRR/GLAMP GUIDANCE. A RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT HAS DEVELOPED AGAIN TONIGHT WITH MANY LOW SPOTS RUNNING IN THE UPPER 40S WHILE RIDGES ARE HOLDING IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S. THE APPROACHING FRONT IS KEEPING THINGS A BIT MORE STIRRED IN THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA SO THE DIFFERENCES ARE SMALLER TO THE NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY. MEANWHILE...WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN THE VALLEYS WITH SOME NORTHWEST BREEZES NOTED IN NORTHERN PARTS OF EAST KENTUCKY. THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL TAKE A TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA ALLOWING THE FAST FLOW TO REBOUND OVER THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND AND START THE NEW WEEK. THUS...A MODERATELY STRONG RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER EAST KENTUCKY DURING THE DAY MONDAY WHILE THE NEXT TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH ITS ENERGY ZIPPING NORTHEAST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. AT LEAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM... THE RIDGE WILL KEEP THIS ENERGY AT BAY AND WELL AWAY FROM EASTERN KENTUCKY. GIVEN THE MODEL SIMILARITIES...HAVE GONE WITH A GENERAL BLEND OF THE MODELS WITH AN EMPHASIS ON THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM12 AND HRRR FOR WX DETAILS. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE AREAS OF DENSE FOG OVER THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA BURNING OFF BY MID MORNING...LEAVING BEHIND SUNNY SKIES THAT WILL HELP GIVE US ANOTHER WARM DAY. FOR TONIGHT...MILDER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...BUT THERE SHOULD BE LESS IN THE WAY OF FOG THOUGH...MORE LIMITED TO JUST THE DEEPER VALLEYS...WITH ANOTHER HEALTHY RIDGE AND VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT DEVELOPING. MONDAY WILL BE A VERY WARM DAY AS THE FRONT MOVES BACK NORTH THROUGH THE AREA AS A WARM ONE AND JUST SOME EXTRA CLOUDS. FOR MONDAY WE CAN EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR RECORD LEVELS ALONG WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AND SOUTHWEST WINDS. FOR THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS...USED THE CONSSHORT...AND ITS BC VERSION... AS A STARTING POINT THROUGH THE FIRST 18 TO 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST FOLLOWED BY THE SUPERBLEND. DID MAKE SOME CHANGES TO BETTER REFLECT THE RIDGE AND VALLEY DIFFERENCES ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AGAIN TONIGHT. POPS THOROUGH THE PERIOD REMAINS LOW...IN LINE WITH THE VALUES FROM THE MOS GUIDANCE. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014 MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT FOR TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...AND REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST FROM FRIDAY ONWARD INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THUS...HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST REMAINS FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. TO START THE PERIOD...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE PUSHING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH A SURFACE LOW TRACKING ACROSS MICHIGAN. THIS WILL FORCE A SURFACE COLD FRONT EASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON TUESDAY. AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH SHELTERED VALLEYS EXPECTED TO DECOUPLE...WE SHOULD SEE A GOOD RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT MONDAY NIGHT WITH VALLEYS POSSIBLY STILL REACHING THE 40S AND RIDGES CLOSER TO 60. ECMWF HAS MOVED TOWARDS THE FASTER GFS WITH THE FRONTAL TIMING...SO IT NOW LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH CLOUDS INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY. WENT WITH A STRONG GRADIENT IN POPS FROM EAST TO WEST AS IT NOW LOOKS LIKE RAIN SHOULD MAKE IT WELL INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY BY 00Z TUESDAY. PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST. GIVEN THE MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND THE INCREASED MODEL AGREEMENT...HAVE OPTED TO INCREASE POPS TO CATEGORICAL. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON TUESDAY...SO A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE FASTER TREND PUTTING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH CLEARING WE WILL SEE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY AS THIS WILL PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE ON WHERE HIGHS END UP IN THE AFTERNOON. MORE CLOUDS MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST MAY REFLECT. HOWEVER...OPTING TO SIDE WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER A BIT. REGARDLESS...IT WILL STILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER THAN THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...KEEPING THE WEATHER QUIET THROUGH THIS PERIOD. BY FRIDAY...MODEL DIFFERENCES BECOME TOO GREAT TO DISCERN HOW THINGS WILL UNFOLD. IT DOES LOOK LIKE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTHEAST AND BRING SUBSTANTIALLY COLDER AIR INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY FOR NEXT WEEKEND. HAVE OPTED TO STAY WELL BELOW GUIDANCE NEXT WEEKEND. IT LOOKS LIKE MOST SCENARIOS HAS THE AREA LOCKED IN A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUD COVER UNDERNEATH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...AT LEAST THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY. THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF NOW ARE BOTH FAVORABLE FOR A HARD FREEZE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS IS OUTSIDE OF THE HWO PERIOD...SO FOR NOW WILL JUST PLAN TO GO WITH SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY MORNING. ALSO...OPTING TO GO WITH SOME LOW POPS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. THE LATEST ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD SUPPORT SOME SNOW ON THE HIGH TERRAIN SATURDAY MORNING. LOOKS LIKE A CHILLY WEEKEND FOR HALLOWEEN FESTIVITIES. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014 WITH THE CLEAR SKIES ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT... EXPECT THE SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG TO FORM IN THE VALLEYS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND LINGER PAST SUNRISE. SOME OF THE VALLEYS WILL BE DOWN TO VLIFR. FOR THE TAF STATIONS...ONLY EXPECT SOME MVFR VSBY NEAR DAWN AT LOZ...VFR FOR JKL AND SJS...AND AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF IFR OR LOWER FOR SME WHERE THE FOG HAS SET IN EARLY. ONCE THE FOG BURNS OFF...LATER THIS MORNING EXPECT CLEAR SKIES. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...KAS AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
402 PM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014 12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW UPR RDG OVER CENTRAL NAMERICA BLDG TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LKS BTWN SLOWLY DEPARTING CLOSED LO OVER SE CANADA AND ANOTHER DEEP TROF OVER THE W. AT THE SFC...HI PRES RDG AXIS AND DRY AIRMASS SHOWN ON THE 12Z INL/MPX RAOBS...WHERE 12Z PWAT WAS 0.25-0.30 INCH...ARE PRESSING EWD THRU THE UPR LKS...BRINGING MOSUNNY SKIES TO UPR MI. SOME SC LINGERS OVER THE FAR E UNDER LLVL NW FLOW/THERMAL TROF AHEAD OF THE RDG AXIS... AND SOME CI SPILLING OVER THE UPR RDG AXIS TO THE NE OF H85 WARM FNT IN THE NRN PLAINS IS MOVING INTO THE W. DEEPENING SFC LO PRES IS MOVING SLOWLY E THRU THE NRN PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF THE WRN TROF...BUT OVERALL DRYNESS OF THE AIRMASS IN THE NRN PLAINS HAS PREVENTED ANY PCPN AND EVEN MUCH CLD COVER SO FAR. 12Z H85 TEMPS WERE AOA 20C IN THE NCENTRAL PLAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS LO. MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUSED ON CLD/PCPN TRENDS ASSOCIATED WITH APRCHG WARM FNT. TNGT WL START OFF MAINLY CLEAR WITH JUST SOME SCT HI CLDS...BUT THEN CLDS WL THICKEN THRU THE NGT WITH DVLPG WAD BTWN HI PRES RDG DEPARTING TO THE E AND LO PRES MOVING TOWARD LK WINNIPEG AND NE OF ATTENDANT WARM FNT MOVING NE THRU WI. ALTHOUGH LINGERING LLVL DRY AIR AND PASSAGE OF SHARPER H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC TO THE NW MAY TEND TO LIMIT POPS...FCST DEEP ISENTROPIC ASCENT WITH VIGOROUS H85-5 MOISTENING LIFTING PWAT TOWARD ARND AN INCH OR 225 PCT OF NORMAL OVER THE W BY 12Z MON...BAND OF FCST H85-7 FGEN TO THE NE OF THE H85 WARM FNT AND INCRSG UPR DVGC JUSTIFY BUMPING POPS UP A BIT OVER THE W HALF LATE. BUT OVERALL INITIAL DRYNESS OF THE AIRMASS WARRANTS A FCST OF NO HIER THAN HI CHC POPS. MAINTAINED MENTION OF SOME THUNDER OVER THE W LATER AT NGT...WHEN MID LVL LAPSE RATES ARE FCST TO STEEPEN AND FCST SDNGS INDICATE MUCAPE UP TO 500 J/KG. THE STEEPER MID LVL LAPSE RATES FCST ARE REASONABLE GIVEN THE VERY HI H85 TEMPS OBSVD IN THE PLAINS TODAY. DESPITE THE EXPECTED INCRSG CLDS/MSTR... DRYNESS OF THE AIRMASS IN PLACE SUGGESTS LOWERING FCST LO TEMPS A BIT. EXPECT THE LOWEST MIN TEMPS TOWARD THE LO END OF GUIDANCE OVER THE INTERIOR E...WHERE CLDS WL INCRS LATEST. HOURLY TEMPS FCST WL SHOW RELATIVELY EARLY MINS WITH RISING READINGS LATER TNGT UNDER THE INCRSG/THICKENING CLDS. MON...INCRSD POPS TO LIKELY ON MON MRNG OVER THE E HALF WHERE MODELS SHOW INCRSG UPR DVGC/BAND OF H85-7 FGEN AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT COINCIDENT WITH INCRSG PWAT UP TO ABOUT 215 PCT OF NORMAL. MODEL FCST SDNGS INDICATE MUCAPE 500-1000 J/KG WHEN LIFTING FM ARND H8 ON MON. GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF THIS ELEVATED INSTABILITY...NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THERE COULD BE SOME HAIL UNDER ANY STRONGER STORM. ARRIVAL OF DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC/MID LVL DRYING AND CAPPING W-E IN THE AFTN FOLLOWING EXIT OF THE UPR DVGC/FGEN BAND WL DIMINISH THE POPS. TENDED TOWARD THE LO END OF GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS ON MON GIVEN HI SFC-H85 STABILITY/CLDS N OF SFC WARM FNT. ADDED A MENTION OF SOME FOG LATE IN THE DAY OVER THE CENTRAL WITH INCRSGLY MOIST UPSLOPE LLVL SE FLOW UNDER MID LVL DRYING IN ADVANCE OF SLOWLY APRCHG WARM FNT. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014 THE FORECAST FOR MON NIGHT/TUE REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN DUE TO MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY /AND RESULTING CYCLOGENESIS/ ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. THE REAL DIFFERENCES ARE DUE TO THE PLACEMENT OF THE SHORTWAVE. THE GFS KEEPS THE BEST ENERGY FARTHER N...RESULTING IN THE DRY SLOT BEING OVER THE CWA MUCH OF MON NIGHT AND TUE. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE NAM IS MUCH FARTHER S...RESULTING IN A DEEPER SFC LOW THAT MOVES FROM CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN TO ERN UPPER MI...WHICH MEAN MORE RAIN. THE ECMWF IS BETWEEN THE NAM AND GFS AND ONLY BRINGS THE DRY SLOT INTO FAR SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...RESULTING IN A WETTER FORECAST THAN THE GFS. VERY DIFFICULT TO LEAN TOO FAR ONE WAY OR ANOTHER AT THIS POINT GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND SFC CYCLOGENESIS...SO WILL GO WITH A CONSENSUS BLEND. ADDITIONALLY...TUE WILL END UP BEING GUSTY...BUT THE EXTENT OF SUCH DEPENDS LARGELY ON THE TRACK/STRENGTH OF THE SFC LOW...SO HARD TO GET TOO SPECIFIC ON EXPECTED GUSTS AT THIS POINT. THE KEWEENAW SHOULD SEE THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER UPPER MI DUE TO THE FAVORABLE WLY WINDS DIRECTION. TUE NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT...THE SYSTEM THAT MOVED THROUGH ON TUE WILL MOVE INTO NRN QUEBEC BY LATE WED AS A SFC RIDGE MOVES TO THE WRN CWA. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IMPROVES DURING THIS TIME AS CONDITIONS TRANSITION TO A MORE FAVORABLE LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED RAIN/SNOW SETUP...WHICH ENTAILS LESS MODEL VARIABILITY IN THIS CASE. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NW...BUT WILL START TO BACK TO THE W /FROM W TO E/ ON WED AFTERNOON AS THE RIDGE MOVES IN. THERE WILL BE AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM INTO WED MORNING...BUT DRIER AIR WILL START TO BECOME MORE DOMINANT ON WED. AS FOR TEMPS...850MB TEMPS WILL FALL FROM AROUND -2C AT 00Z WED TO AROUND -6C AT 12Z WED. DURING THE DAY ON WED...850MB TEMPS WILL FALL A COUPLE OF DEGREES OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR WHILE WARMING A COUPLE OF DEGREES OVER THE WRN LAKE. OVERALL...LOOKS LIKE A GOOD SETUP FOR LAKE EFFECT RAIN...WITH SNOW BECOMING MORE LIKELY IN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN LATE TUE NIGHT AND TO A LESSER EXTENT ON WED. SHOULD SEE A DIMINISHING TREND TO PRECIP ON WED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WRN CWA. DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY FOR LATE IN THE WEEK GIVEN POOR MODEL RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY AND MODEL DISAGREEMENT...COMBINED WITH THE USUAL CAVEATS WITH SHORTWAVES 5 DAYS OUT. THE GFS BRINGS THE SHORTWAVE RIGHT ACROSS THE CWA...WHILE THE ECMWF MOVES THE SHORTWAVE FARTHER SW. IN ANY CASE...MODELS HAVE SHOWN POOR RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY WITH THE SHORTWAVE ITSELF...SO SYNOPTIC PRECIP IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THANKFULLY...THERE IS HIGHER CONFIDENCE WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW DUE TO MODEL AGREEMENT ON NNW LOW LEVEL WINDS AND 850MB TEMPS AOB -10C FOR MUCH OF FRI AND POSSIBLY INTO FRI NIGHT. THE LES SHOULD RAMP UP THU NIGHT WHEN THE COLDER AIR SURGES INTO THE AREA /DEPENDENT ON SHORTWAVE TIMING AS WELL/ AND SHOULD DIMINISH FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AS A SFC RIDGE MAY SHIFT ACROSS THE CWA. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS IN NNW WIND SNOWBELTS EVEN IF THE SHORTWAVE DOES NOT DIRECTLY IMPACT THE CWA...BUT WOULD BE GREATER IF THE SHORTWAVE DOES IMPACT THE AREA. SHOULD ALSO BE WINDY FOR AT LEAST A SHORT PERIOD THU NIGHT INTO FRI /DEPENDING ON THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE/ AS A 1030MB SFC HIGH MOVES FROM THE WNW FAIRLY QUICKLY BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE. SHOULD SEE A QUICK PERIOD OF GALES FROM THE EVENT...BUT WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL THINGS BECOME MORE CERTAIN TO GET TOO SPECIFIC ON WINDS SPEEDS. SHOULD SEE ANY REMAINING LAKE EFFECT PRECIP DIE OUT/MOVE OUT ON SAT AS MODELS SHOW THE SFC HIGH SHIFT E OF THE CWA. WILL RUN WITH A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...WHICH WILL SHOW A WARMING TREND AS AN UPPER RIDGE PUSHES IN FROM THE W. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 121 PM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014 ALTHOUGH HIER CLDS WL BE ON THE INCRS LATER THIS AFTN/THIS EVNG IN ADVANCE OF AN APRCHG WARM FNT...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WITH DRYNESS OF LLVL AIRMASS SHOWN ON LOCAL 12Z RAOBS. BUT AS THE INCRSG SSE WIND AHEAD OF THE WARM FNT DRAWS MORE MSTR INTO THE UPR LKS...SOME -SHRA WL DVLP LATE TNGT. CLD BASES WL LOWER...BUT LINGERING NEAR SFC DRY LYR SHOULD MAINTAIN A VFR CIG. RETAINED MENTION OF MARGINAL LLWS AT IWD WITH CLOSER APRCH OF THE WARM FNT/INVRN AND EXPECTED STRONGER LLJ AT THAT LOCATION. AFTER 12Z MON...THE LLVLS WL MOISTEN SUFFICIENTLY TO WARRANT FCST MVFR CIGS. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014 HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL LEAD TO DECREASING WINDS TODAY. AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD WITH WINDS LESS THAN 20 KTS WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE...SE WINDS INCREASE TO 30 KTS OVER MAINLY EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR ON MONDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. ONCE THIS LOW MOVES TO THE EAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR ON TUESDAY...WEST WINDS TO 30 KTS AND POSSIBLY UP TO GALE FORCE OF 35 KTS WILL DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT NORTHWEST AND STAY UP TO 30 KTS INTO WEDNESDAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 25 KTS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK...POSSIBLY LEADING TO GALES TO 35 KTS. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KC LONG TERM...TITUS AVIATION...KC MARINE...TITUS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
116 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014 12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW WNW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE UPR GREAT LKS BTWN UPR RDG EXTENDING FM TEXAS THRU THE ROCKIES AND DEEPENING UPR TROF NEAR HUDSON BAY ENHANCED BY STRONG SHRTWV DIGGING THRU NW ONTARIO THAT IS ACCOMPANIED BY 12HR H5 HGT FALLS UP TO 130M. TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BTWN ASSOCIATED LO PRES NEAR JAMES BAY AND HI PRES IN THE NRN PLAINS IS ALLOWING FOR GUSTY WNW WINDS OVER UPR MI EARLY THIS AFTN. THE 12Z INL RAOB SHOWED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS AT 3-4K FT AGL...AND SFC WIND GUSTS HAVE REACHED AOA 40 MPH OVER MUCH OF THE CWA WITH DAYTIME HEATING ALLOWING THE MIXING OF THOSE HIER WINDS TO THE SFC. THE AIRMASS STREAMING INTO UPR MI IS A DRY ONE... SO THERE HAVE ONLY BEEN SOME SCT DIURNAL CU/SC. BUT MORE SC IS NOTED OVER ONTARIO CLOSER TO CORE OF COLDER AIR AT H85. LOOKING WELL UPSTREAM...THERE IS A POTENT SHRTWV APRCHG THE PAC NW. MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED ON WINDS INTO THIS EVNG AND THEN ON TEMPS FOR SUN. LATE TDAY/TNGT...WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING AND SLOW BUT STEADY APRCH OF SFC HI PRES RDG FM THE W/DIMINISHING H925 WINDS... THE GUSTY WNW WINDS THAT LINGER THRU THE AFTN WL DIMINISH. HIER WAVES WHIPPED UP BY THE STRONG WINDS THIS AFTN AND IMPACTING AREAS FM ONTONAGON THRU COPPER HARBOR AND E OF MARQUETTE MAY CAUSE SOME MINOR BEACH EROSION ALONG THE LK SUP SHORE. SKIES SHOULD BE MOCLR... BUT AS THE FLOW VEERS A BIT MORE TO THE NW OVER THE E AND ADVECTS SOMEWHAT COLDER H85 AIR INTO THAT AREA...SOME OF THE BKN SC IN ONTARIO MAY MOVE INTO THE ERN CWA. THIS CAD WL ALSO MAINTAIN GUSTY WINDS OVER THE E FOR A BIT LONGER. A STEADY NW WIND THRU THE NGT WL LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP DROP EVEN WHERE SKIES ARE CLR. EXPECT THE LOWEST MIN TEMPS OVER THE INTERIOR W...WHERE WINDS WL BECOME LIGHTER TOWARD DAYBREAK WITH THE CLOSER APRCH OF SFC HI PRES RDG. SUN...HI PRES RDG CROSSING UPR MI WL BRING A MAINLY SUNNY DAY... EXCEPT FOR SOME SCT DAYTIME CU OVER THE E CLOSER TO SLOWLY DEPARTING H85 THERMAL TROF. STEADY NW WINDS OVER THE E IN THE MRNG WL DIMINISH WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE RDG. WITH H85 TEMPS REBOUNDING TO 10C OVER THE W BY 00Z MON...MAX TEMPS SHOULD RISE INTO THE 50S AND PERHAPS TOUCH 60 OVER THE W WHERE DVLPG SE FLOW WL DOWNSLOPE. MORE PERSISTENT NW FLOW OFF THE CHILLY WATERS OF LK SUP WL KEEP THE E COOLEST...AND TEMPS THERE NEAR LK SUP MAY BE HARD PRESSED TO REACH 50. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014 A 500MB RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE CWA AT 00Z MON...BUT WILL MOVE E BY 12Z MON AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NRN PLAINS ACCOMPANIED BY A BROAD SFC LOW ACROSS MN. EXPECT SHOWERS /AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS/ ASSOCIATED WITH WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THE LOW TO MOVE ACROSS THE WRN CWA SUN NIGHT IN MON MORNING...THEN ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA MON MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN SHIFT ACROSS THE CWA TUE INTO TUE NIGHT...WITH INTENSIFICATION OF THE BROAD SFC LOW OCCURRING. EXACTLY WHEN/WHERE THE BEST CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS IS UNCERTAIN DUE TO MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH. DESPITE LACKING EXACT DETAILS...THE PRECIP FORECAST REMAINS SOMEWHAT MORE CERTAIN. RAIN SHOWERS /AGAIN WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS/ SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE MON EVENING THROUGH MON NIGHT...BUT THE DRY SLOT WILL LEAD TO A DRIER FORECAST FOR TUE MORNING. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND COOLER NWLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO LAKE ENHANCED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS LATE TUE INTO THU AS 850MB TEMPS FALL AS LOW AS -5C...ALTHOUGH A DIMINISHING TREND IN SHOWER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TIME. MON AND TUE WILL SEE HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S...BUT WED WILL ONLY SEE HIGHS REACH THE LOW TO MID 40S. WED NIGHT AND THU MORNING LOOK DRY FOR THE MOST PART AS A SFC RIDGE SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA...BUT CLOUDS WILL COVER THE AREA DUE TO AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS WELL AS FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. POOR RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY FROM THE MODELS DOES NOT LEND MUCH CONFIDENCE FOR THU THROUGH NEXT SAT AS THEY POINT TO A DEEPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...BRINGING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AOB -10C. AS MENTIONED MODELS VARY FROM RUN TO RUN AND DISAGREE WITH EACH OTHER ON ALL BUT THE VERY GENERAL PATTERN...AND EVEN AT THAT THE TIMING OF WHEN AND FOR HOW LONG THE COLD AIR MOVES OVERHEAD IS NOT AGREED ON. WILL HAVE CHANCES OF LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT. FOR SAT...MODELS WANT TO BRING A SFC HIGH INTO THE AREA BUT WITH CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY. WILL KEEP POPS GOING INTO SAT FOR LAKE EFFECT...BUT JUST SLIGHT CHANCE FOR NOW. HIGH TEMPS ON FRI MAY NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 30S IN MANY LOCATIONS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 116 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014 UNDER A DRY AIR MASS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS FCST PERIOD. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX AS SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE APPROACHES...ARRIVING OVER THE AREA DURING THE MID AND LATE AFTN HRS. PRES GRADIENT WILL QUICKLY TIGHTEN TONIGHT. WITH LOW-LEVEL JET RAMPING UP OVER NOCTURNAL INVERSION...LLWS MAY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED IN LATER FCSTS. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014 AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY WEST TO EAST OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO...SW TO W GALES OVER 35 KTS ARE EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING...MAINLY CENTRAL AND EAST LAKE SUPERIOR. NW WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KTS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING IN WAKE OF THE LOW AND BEFORE SFC RIDGE CROSSES THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD WITH WINDS LESS THAN 20 KTS WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE...SE WINDS INCREASE TO 30 KTS OVER MAINLY EAST LAKE SUPERIOR ON MONDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. ONCE THIS LOW MOVES TO THE EAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR ON TUESDAY...WEST WINDS TO 30 KTS AND POSSIBLY UP TO GALE FORCE OF 35 KTS WILL DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT NORTHWEST AND STAY UP TO 30 KTS INTO WEDNESDAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 25 KTS BY THURSDAY. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR LSZ251-267. GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR LSZ250-265- 266. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KC LONG TERM...TITUS AVIATION...07 MARINE...TITUS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON MS
903 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014 .UPDATE... HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOWLY BUILDING TO THE E TONIGHT AND WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASING AHEAD OF THE DEEP SCALE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS...WINDS ARE STILL IN THE 7-12MPH RANGE IN THE ARKLAMISS DELTA. 00Z KJAN AND REGIONAL SOUNDING SHOWS SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS...WHICH WILL AID IN SOME INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. HRRR INDICATES LOW VISIBILITIES WITH FOG REACHING INTO CENTRAL/W MS AND NE LA TONIGHT. LOW STRATUS IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO THE STRONGER LOW LEVEL FLOW...ESPECIALLY IN THE DELTA...BUT DUE TO ADVECTION OF HIGHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...INCREASED FOG POTENTIAL INTO CENTRAL/W MS AFTER 09Z AND EXTENDED IT UNTIL 15Z. LOWS ALONG AND W OF I-55 WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER DUE TO STRONGER WINDS WHILE AREAS IN THE E/SE WILL BE COOLER IN THE UPPER 50S DUE TO LIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT. FOR FORECAST ELEMENTS...MOVED PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG FURTHER TO THE NW BUT KEPT OUT OF THE FAR NW DELTA MAINLY BETWEEN 09-15Z. BUMPED UP LOWS A DEGREE IN CENTRAL/NW MS. ADJUSTED SKY/TEMP/DEWPOINT GRIDS TO CURRENT TRENDS. REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. /DC/ && .AVIATION...GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE MORE OMINOUS WITH IFR/LIFR STRATUS/ FOG SPREADING NORTH AFTER ~08Z ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE GREATER FOG THREAT IS EXPECTED IN THE HBG/PIB TO JAN-MEI AREA WITH A GREATER LIKELIHOOD FOR STRATUS DECK THE GLH/GWO AREA WHERE MIXING WILL BE GREATER. IN ANY CASE...FOG/STRATUS WILL BURN OFF BY MORNING AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH AFTERNOON/EVENING... EXCEPT IN THE GLH/GWO/GTR CORRIDOR WHERE AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL INCREASE TSRA CHANCES. /EC/ && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014/ SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS UPPER TROUGHING DEEPENS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLANES WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS ARKANSAS BY TUESDAY MORNING. WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT EXPECT STRATUS TO FORM OVER MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND WITH SURFACE RIDGING HOLDING ON IN THE SOUTHEAST....PATCHY AREAS OF FOG ARE LIKELY OVER THESE AREAS. ON TUESDAY...THE BULK OF THE FORCING WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE DELTA BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS SUGGEST ENOUGH MOISTURE WITH PWATS AROUND 1.6-1.8 INCHES AND INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE DELTA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE GFS/ECMWF SUGGEST THAT THE BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH PRIMARILY SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING TO FORM ALONG THE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE NIGHT. EXPECT THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO REMAIN SUB-SEVERE...BUT A STRONG STORM OR TWO WITH HEAVY RAINFALL CANNOT BE RULED OUT TUESDAY EVENING IN THE DELTA. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT ANAFRONTAL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE EAST/SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE ENDING OVER THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH COOLER/DRIER CONDITIONS. EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE 40S FOR MOST OF THE AREA. DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SO WILL ATTACH THE APPLICABLE PORTIONS OF THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION BELOW. /15/ PREVIOUS LONG TERM...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE OF SIGNIFICANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR CWA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING AND DEEPEN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH TO OUR EAST. THE SHORTWAVE WILL HAVE VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. THE DRY WEATHER OVER OUR CWA THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY. A SECOND STRONGER 1029MB SURFACE HIGH WILL DROP OUT OF CANADA AND ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A DRY NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW OVER OUR AREA THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST. RIDGING ALOFT WILL MOVE EAST OVER OUR REGION SATURDAY AS WELL. THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL SHIFT EAST OF OUR CWA SUNDAY WHILE THE SURFACE HIGH BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC SEABOARD. THE RESULTING RETURN FLOW BENEATH INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY INCREASE MOISTURE TO OUR CWA. A WARMING TREND WILL ACCOMPANY THE MOISTURE INCREASE IN MONDAY. THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN DRY BUT LOW RAIN CHANCES CREEP BECK INTO THE FORECAST MONDAY. /22/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... JACKSON 59 80 61 76 / 3 13 44 30 MERIDIAN 57 82 61 76 / 3 7 37 41 VICKSBURG 58 80 58 76 / 3 22 49 21 HATTIESBURG 60 84 62 80 / 8 9 20 33 NATCHEZ 62 81 61 76 / 3 16 33 19 GREENVILLE 61 79 57 72 / 7 41 70 18 GREENWOOD 61 79 56 74 / 3 30 69 28 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...NONE. LA...NONE. AR...NONE. && $$ DC/EC/15/22
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS SPRINGFIELD MO
732 PM CDT Mon Oct 27 2014 .MESOSCALE DISCUSSION... Issued at 732 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014 Cold front is making steady progress into the area from the west. Have been seeing signs of convective development during the past hour...mainly behind the front. 00z KSGF sounding still shows a rather pronounced elevated mixed layer. This cap will likely prohibit warm sector thunderstorm development tonight, with nearly all activity along/behind the incoming boundary. Looking at recent RUC and NAM runs, there is currently a cap even behind the front. This cap should quickly weaken over the next few hours and we should see an expansion of showers and scattered storms. Elevated CAPE from around 800mb level is around 400 J/kg, becoming uncapped along/behind the front after 03z. MUCAPE in the 500-1000 J/kg range is expected, supporting a low end risk for a few stronger storms across the far southwest portion of the outlook area. A rogue storm producing quarter sized hail cannot be ruled out. Overall, however, small hail will be the main game to be had with this activity. && .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday) Issued at 215 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014 An upper level low was currently moving into the Great Lakes region this afternoon. Associated surface front is located from a low over northeast Iowa across northwest Missouri...northeast Kansas into central Oklahoma. Widely scattered showers and a few thunderstorms have begun to develop along and behind the front as the airmass is being lifted isentropically. Front should approach the CWA after 00z and be all the way through by 12z. Expect the rain area to increase in coverage through the evening hours. Some of the stronger cells over the southwest portion could produce some one inch hail this evening per the SPC discussion. Rain should diminish from northwest to southeast throughout the day on Tuesday. Temperatures on Tuesday should be about 10-15 degrees cooler than today...but closer to seasonal normals. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday) Issued at 215 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014 Once the upper level low makes its way through the Great Lakes region...an upper level ridge will reestablish itself over the Rockies. An upper level impulse moving along the ridge will bring some cloudiness on Thursday along with a secondary surge of Canadian air. Temperatures will be slightly below normal Friday and Saturday. Will need to monitor the possibility for some patchy frost over central and south central Missouri on Saturday morning as lows dip into the mid 30s. As the upper level ridge approaches the area this weekend...a return to more seasonal temperatures will occur. The next upper level system and associated cold front will approach the area Sunday into Monday bringing the next chance of rain to the region. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening) Issued at 601 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014 The main issue for pilots flying in and out of the Missouri Ozarks region will be a front moving through later this evening and overnight. A broken line of showers and convection will develop late this evening along that front as it advances eastward through the night. Have mostly VFR conditions through the next 24 hours with a small window of possible MVFR visibilities when the line of showers and storms move over area airports. This is handled by TEMPO groups this evening. Gusty winds will relax this evening and shift to north-northwesterly with the passage of the front tonight. Skies will clear by early Tuesday morning. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ MESOSCALE...Gagan SHORT TERM...Gaede LONG TERM...Gaede AVIATION...Griffin
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1253 PM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014 UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS MORNING. LEE SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WITH A WARM WARM EXTENDING EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI. SOME 4500` STRATOCU HAD DEVELOPED IN NORTHWEST MISSOURI...AND THIS MOIST AXIS WILL BE EAST OF OUR AREA. MAIN CONCERN HAS BEEN LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTHWEST AND WHETHER ANY STRATUS AND/OR FOG WOULD DEVELOP WITHIN AN AREA OF STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. NO CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS YET...AND LATEST RAP MODEL WOULD SUGGEST THAT NOTHING WILL DEVELOP. HRRR SUGGESTS THAT DEVELOPMENT MAY HOLD OFF FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS...DEVELOPING IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND THEN EXTEND SOUTHEAST INTO WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI. THAT STILL SEEMS LIKELY...BUT WILL BE BACKING OFF PREVIOUS FORECAST OF EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS...FOG AND EVEN DRIZZLE IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. BELIEVE THE FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY...BUT NOT SURE IT WILL MAKE ALL THE WAY THROUGH. THUS...WILL KEEP LOWER 70S IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...BUT WILL WARM TO THE MID 70S ALONG THE I80 CORRIDOR AND FEEL OPTIMISTIC WE CAN STILL REACH THE LOWER 80S IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. RECORD AT KLNK TODAY IS 86...DON`T THINK WE`LL MAKE THAT AND SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES SHORT. SURFACE DEWPOINTS SHOULD RISE INTO THE 50S AND EVEN LOWER 60S IN SOUTHEAST NE/SOUTHWEST IA TODAY ALSO GIVING US A BRIEF RETURN TO SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID CONDITIONS THAN WE`VE HAD RECENTLY. UPPER TROUGH PUSHING ONTO THE WEST COAST MOVES THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND ONTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY...WHICH DRAGS THE SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE AREA AS A COLD FRONT. PRECIP SHOULD STAY WEST/NORTHWEST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH WEAKENING WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND DEWPOINTS REMAINING ELEVATED...WLD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP ALONG/EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER OVERNIGHT AS WELL. COLD FRONT ARRIVES MONDAY WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY. THE REAL COOL AIR LAGS BEHIND THE FRONT UNTIL TUESDAY. STILL LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY AS WELL...WHICH COULD LINGER ACROSS WESTERN IOWA MONDAY EVENING. COOLER TEMPS PREVAIL FOR TUESDAY WITH BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH MID TO UPPER 50S...WHICH WOULD FINALLY BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014 THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS QUIET...WITH NORMAL OR JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW TEMPS. THERE STILL IS A VERY WEAK WAVE THAT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE REGION. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN HINTING AT A SMALL SPRINKLE CHANCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT PROBABLY NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO MENTION YET. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY COULD BE WELL BELOW NORMAL... BUT RECOVERY BACK TO NEAR NORMAL OR EVEN ABOVE IS POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY. && .AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014 VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECETED UNTIL 0800Z. AFTER 0800Z...A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CREATE MVFR CONDITIONS WITH RAIN AT KOFK AND IFR CONDITIONS WITH FOG AND RAIN AT KLNK. WINDS WILL SWITCH FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST AS COLDF FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 0800Z. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DEWALD LONG TERM...DEWALD AVIATION...SMITH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
637 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014 UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS MORNING. LEE SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WITH A WARM WARM EXTENDING EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI. SOME 4500` STRATOCU HAD DEVELOPED IN NORTHWEST MISSOURI...AND THIS MOIST AXIS WILL BE EAST OF OUR AREA. MAIN CONCERN HAS BEEN LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTHWEST AND WHETHER ANY STRATUS AND/OR FOG WOULD DEVELOP WITHIN AN AREA OF STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. NO CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS YET...AND LATEST RAP MODEL WOULD SUGGEST THAT NOTHING WILL DEVELOP. HRRR SUGGESTS THAT DEVELOPMENT MAY HOLD OFF FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS...DEVELOPING IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND THEN EXTEND SOUTHEAST INTO WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI. THAT STILL SEEMS LIKELY...BUT WILL BE BACKING OFF PREVIOUS FORECAST OF EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS...FOG AND EVEN DRIZZLE IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. BELIEVE THE FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY...BUT NOT SURE IT WILL MAKE ALL THE WAY THROUGH. THUS...WILL KEEP LOWER 70S IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...BUT WILL WARM TO THE MID 70S ALONG THE I80 CORRIDOR AND FEEL OPTIMISTIC WE CAN STILL REACH THE LOWER 80S IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. RECORD AT KLNK TODAY IS 86...DON`T THINK WE`LL MAKE THAT AND SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES SHORT. SURFACE DEWPOINTS SHOULD RISE INTO THE 50S AND EVEN LOWER 60S IN SOUTHEAST NE/SOUTHWEST IA TODAY ALSO GIVING US A BRIEF RETURN TO SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID CONDITIONS THAN WE`VE HAD RECENTLY. UPPER TROUGH PUSHING ONTO THE WEST COAST MOVES THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND ONTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY...WHICH DRAGS THE SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE AREA AS A COLD FRONT. PRECIP SHOULD STAY WEST/NORTHWEST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH WEAKENING WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND DEWPOINTS REMAINING ELEVATED...WLD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP ALONG/EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER OVERNIGHT AS WELL. COLD FRONT ARRIVES MONDAY WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY. THE REAL COOL AIR LAGS BEHIND THE FRONT UNTIL TUESDAY. STILL LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY AS WELL...WHICH COULD LINGER ACROSS WESTERN IOWA MONDAY EVENING. COOLER TEMPS PREVAIL FOR TUESDAY WITH BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH MID TO UPPER 50S...WHICH WOULD FINALLY BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014 THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS QUIET...WITH NORMAL OR JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW TEMPS. THERE STILL IS A VERY WEAK WAVE THAT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE REGION. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN HINTING AT A SMALL SPRINKLE CHANCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT PROBABLY NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO MENTION YET. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY COULD BE WELL BELOW NORMAL... BUT RECOVERY BACK TO NEAR NORMAL OR EVEN ABOVE IS POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY. && .AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014 VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS STILL LIKELY THROUGH A COUPLE MORE HOURS AT KOMA/KLNK BEFORE THE LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT SWITCHING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DEWALD LONG TERM...DEWALD AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
347 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014 MAIN CONCERN WILL BE CHANCE OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS THROUGH ABOUT NOON TODAY. STARTING WITH THE BIG PICTURE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR PLOTS SHOW ONE CLOSED LOW OVER QUEBEC AND THE NORTHEAST CONUS...WITH RIDING OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY AND THEN ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. DECENT HEIGHT FALLS WITH THE UPSTREAM TROUGH WITH A 500 MB 12 HOUR CHANGE OF 40 METERS OVER THE EASTERN ROCKIES AND 80 TO 100 METERS ACROSS IDAHO. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE AT 1 AM LOCAL TIME...HIGH PRESSURE WAS SLIDING SOUTHEAST AND WAS OVER SOUTHERN MN/NORTHERN IOWA. LOW PRESSURE WAS SITUATED OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO WITH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. HIGHER DEWPOINTS WERE POOLING ALONG AND EAST OF THE BOUNDARY WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S OVER EASTERN KANSAS. CLOSER TO HOME DEWPOINTS RANGED FROM THE UPPER 30S IN THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR CWA TO THE MID 50S IN OUR SOUTHERN CWA. THE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM WITH A PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN. WE SHOULD REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH ADVANCING EAST AND IT IS EXPECTED TO STRETCH FROM EASTERN MONTANA TO WESTERN COLORADO BY SUNRISE MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP OUR AREA DRY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE BIGGER CONCERN THEN IS WILL WE SEE ANY FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT JUST PRIOR TO SUNRISE AND WILL IT PERSIST FOR PART OF THE DAY? AS OF 1 AM LOCAL TIME...THE WINDS ACROSS THE CWA REMAIN EASTERLY AND A BIT STRONGER THAN ONE WOULD WANT TO SEE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN INDICATING THE WINDS SHOULD TURN MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AS THE COLORADO SURFACE LOW ADVANCES CLOSER TO OUR CWA. THIS WOULD HELP ADVECT THE HIGHER SURFACE MOISTURE FROM KANSAS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE QUESTION THEN IS IF THIS OCCURS EARLY ENOUGH BEFORE SUNRISE TO AID IN LOW CLOUD AND FOG DEVELOPMENT...OR IS IT AFTER THE SUN HAS RISEN ENOUGH THAT WE HEAT UP IN THE LOWER LEVELS THUS LIMITING FOG/LOW CLOUDS. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR BOTH MODEL TRENDS AND REALITY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE DECIDING. IN ADDITION TO CAUSING EARLY MORNING VISIBILITY ISSUES...AND LINGERING CLOUDS/FOG WOULD ALSO AFFECT THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR TODAY. AFTER WATCHING THINGS PLAY OUT OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...DECIDED TO BACK OFF ON FOG WORDING. WILL LEAVE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG IN FOR NOW BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE LOWER VISIBILITIES. DO NOT EXPECT ANY MAJOR FOG ISSUES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT SINCE THE WINDS SHOULD SWITCH TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW PASSES THROUGH...THUS SHUNTING THE HIGHER MOISTURE EAST. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014 MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...SHOWING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION AS A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTH FROM LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE MT/CAN BORDER SLIDES EAST...AND BROAD HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER THE ERN CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT BEING PUSHED SOUTH BY THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO HAVE MADE ITS WAY THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA BY SUNRISE MONDAY. DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON MONDAY...THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST THOUGH THE PLAINS...BUT OUTSIDE OF A SMALL CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW NOT A WHOLE HECK OF A LOT GOING ON ACROSS THE CWA. KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING ACROSS PRIMARILY THE NWRN HALF OF THE CWA...BUT SOME MODELS SUGGEST WE WOULD BE LUCKY TO SEE SPRINKLES. WILL SEE HOW UPCOMING RUNS TREND. ONCE THIS SYSTEM PASSES EAST OF THE CWA...THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD THROUGH SATURDAY CONTINUES TO BE A DRY ONE. MORE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BUILDS INTO THE AREA TUE/WED AS THE TROUGH AXIS KEEPS MOVING EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST REGIONS...AMPLIFYING AS WE GET INTO THE LATER PORTIONS OF THE PERIOD...WITH RIDGING BUILDING NORTH THROUGH THE ROCKIES AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WORKING ITS WAY TOWARD THE WEST COAST. MODELS IN SHOWING NO NOTABLE SYSTEMS BRINGING PRECIP TO THE CWA...BUT DO SHOW DISTURBANCES SLIDING TO THE N/NE OF THE CWA...BRINGING REINFORCING SHOTS OF COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA. LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES...COLD AIR ADVECTION ON MONDAY IS FORECAST TO RESULT IN HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S IN THE NW TO NEAR 70 IN THE SE...AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY NW WINDS THANKS TO A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT AND INCREASED MIXING POTENTIAL. SPEEDS OF 2O TO 25 MPH AND GUSTS OVER 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. THAT COOLER AIRMASS STICKS AROUND AS WE GET INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN OVER THE AREA. TUES IS A TOUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S...WITH WED/THURS IN THE 60S. FOR FRI/SAT...ANOTHER COOL FRONT PASSING THROUGH LOOKS TO DROP TEMPS BACK A BIT AGAIN...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD 50S CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014 PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE THE CHANCE OF FOG/STRATUS FORMATION BETWEEN THE 09 AND 15Z TIME FRAME. A WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER EASTERN COLORADO IS SLATED TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST WHICH WOULD SWITCH THE WINDS FROM EASTERLY TO SSE. THIS IN TURN WOULD BRING FETCH OF HIGHER LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS INTO THE TERMINAL AREAS. THE MAIN QUESTION IS WHETHER THIS WILL OCCUR BEFORE THE SUN RISES AND HEATING TAKES PLACE. APPEARS IT WILL BE A CLOSE CALL. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE SREF AND HRRR MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE EXTENT OF THE FOG/STRATUS AND MOS GUIDANCE NOT SHOWING ANY VSBY/CIG ISSUES AT ALL. WILL DO THE SAME WITH THE FORECAST IN TERMS OF BACKING OFF THE TREND FOR LIFR CONDITIONS BUT WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR GOING. CONFIDENCE NOT REAL HIGH AND WILL CLOSELY MONITOR THE REST OF THE SHIFT. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...EWALD LONG TERM...ADP AVIATION...EWALD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
309 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014 UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS MORNING. LEE SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WITH A WARM WARM EXTENDING EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI. SOME 4500` STRATOCU HAD DEVELOPED IN NORTHWEST MISSOURI...AND THIS MOIST AXIS WILL BE EAST OF OUR AREA. MAIN CONCERN HAS BEEN LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTHWEST AND WHETHER ANY STRATUS AND/OR FOG WOULD DEVELOP WITHIN AN AREA OF STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. NO CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS YET...AND LATEST RAP MODEL WOULD SUGGEST THAT NOTHING WILL DEVELOP. HRRR SUGGESTS THAT DEVELOPMENT MAY HOLD OFF FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS...DEVELOPING IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND THEN EXTEND SOUTHEAST INTO WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI. THAT STILL SEEMS LIKELY...BUT WILL BE BACKING OFF PREVIOUS FORECAST OF EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS...FOG AND EVEN DRIZZLE IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. BELIEVE THE FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY...BUT NOT SURE IT WILL MAKE ALL THE WAY THROUGH. THUS...WILL KEEP LOWER 70S IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...BUT WILL WARM TO THE MID 70S ALONG THE I80 CORRIDOR AND FEEL OPTIMISTIC WE CAN STILL REACH THE LOWER 80S IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. RECORD AT KLNK TODAY IS 86...DON`T THINK WE`LL MAKE THAT AND SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES SHORT. SURFACE DEWPOINTS SHOULD RISE INTO THE 50S AND EVEN LOWER 60S IN SOUTHEAST NE/SOUTHWEST IA TODAY ALSO GIVING US A BRIEF RETURN TO SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID CONDITIONS THAN WE`VE HAD RECENTLY. UPPER TROUGH PUSHING ONTO THE WEST COAST MOVES THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND ONTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY...WHICH DRAGS THE SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE AREA AS A COLD FRONT. PRECIP SHOULD STAY WEST/NORTHWEST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH WEAKENING WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND DEWPOINTS REMAINING ELEVATED...WOWITH HIGHS IN THE ULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP ALONG/EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER OVERNIGHT AS WELL. COLD FRONT ARRIVES MONDAY WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY. THE REAL COOL AIR LAGS BEHIND THE FRONT UNTIL TUESDAY. STILL LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY AS WELL...WHICH COULD LINGER ACROSS WESTERN IOWA MONDAY EVENING. COOLER TEMPS PREVAIL FOR TUESDAY WITH BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH MID TO UPPER 50S...WHICH WOULD FINALLY BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014 THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS QUIET...WITH NORMAL OR JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW TEMPS. THERE STILL IS A VERY WEAK WAVE THAT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE REGION. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN HINTING AT A SMALL SPRINKLE CHANCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT PROBABLY NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO MENTION YET. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY COULD BE WELL BELOW NORMAL... BUT RECOVERY BACK TO NEAR NORMAL OR EVEN ABOVE IS POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY. && .AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014 STILL EXPECT CLOUDS TO BE ON THE INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AND INTO MID MORNING SUNDAY. CEILINGS MAY DROP INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AND THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME FOG. MOST LIKELY AREA FOR FOG WITH VSBY UNDER 3 MILES IS KLNK...WHICH MAY SEE AN IFR CEILING BRIEFLY TOO. AS WINDS ALOFT INCREASE AT AROUND 1000 FEET...SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND LAST INTO SUNDAY MORNING. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DEWALD LONG TERM...DEWALD AVIATION...MILLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1225 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 454 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014 UPDATED THE FOG FORECAST TO INCLUDE THE POSSIBILITY OF VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS DOWN TO AROUND ONE HALF MILE DUE TO FAVORABLE FOG FORMATION CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT. THE WIND WILL SHIFT FROM EASTERLY TO SOUTHEAST AND MOISTURE POOLING ACROSS KANSAS WILL LIFT NORTH INTO OUR NEBRASKA ZONES. NUMEROUS FORECAST MODELS ARE INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG...THE SREF IN PARTICULAR WITH THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF MORE WIDESPREAD FOG OVER NEBRASKA ZONES. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH YET FOR A FOG ADVISORY AT THIS POINT IN TIME...BUT CAN NOT RULE THAT OUT LATER TONIGHT DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS BEGIN TO UNFOLD. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014 SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS HAVE CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA THANKS TO AN UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES TO THE EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE SOUTH. DEW POINT TEMPERATURES IN KANSAS ARE IN THE 50S AND THE MOIST AIR WILL BE ADVECTING INTO THE AREA. WITH THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES EXPECT THERE COULD BE SOME FOG FORMING. THE NAM AND GFS BOTH HAVE AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE SREF HAS HIGH PROBABILITIES OF VISIBILITY LESS THAN A MILE. THE LATEST COUPLE OF RUNS HAVE HAD SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT AREAS...BUT ARE ALL IN THE SAME VICINITY OF MAINLY IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. HAVE KEPT AREAS OF FOG IN FOR LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR HOW LOW THE VISIBILITY WILL GET TONIGHT. THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO THE MORNING. THE FOG WILL DIMINISH BY MID MORNING AND THE CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014 BIG STORY IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE THE RETURN OF MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. THERE WILL ALSO BE A LOW END CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD UNDER A SOMEWHAT ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. THERE IS A WAVE OFF TO THE NORTHWEST...WHICH WILL BEGIN EJECT OVER INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS COME MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A COLD FRONT COMING THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...IT WILL BE A RATHER BREEZY...WITH SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS AROUND 25 TO 30 MPH FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST. ALTHOUGH DYNAMICALLY A DECENT SETUP WITH THE SHORTWAVE PASSAGE...THE ATMOSPHERE IS RATHER DRY DURING THIS TIME AND LACKS INSTABILITY...SO CONFIDENCE TO SEE ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT IS RATHER LOW. A COUPLE MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME QPF AROUND THE LOCAL AREA...BUT THE LACK OF MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE IS REALLY THE KEY...AND AT THIS CURRENT TIME WOULD BE SURPRISED TO SEE MORE THAN A LIGHT SHOWER TO PERHAPS ONLY SPRINKLES. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR DRY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...WE WILL HAVE MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST FOR THE LONG TERM. THIS WEEKEND MAY BE THE LAST TIME WE HAVE TEMPERATURES NEAR 80 DEGREES UNTIL NEXT YEAR...SO EVERYONE SHOULD GET OUT AND ENJOY THE NICE WEATHER. WE ARE LOOKING AT TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 50S/60S THROUGH SATURDAY FOR HIGHS. SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE TRI-CITES COULD SEE TEMPERATURES REACH THE LOWER 70S FOR HIGHS MONDAY BEFORE THE COLD FRONT PASSES. OTHERWISE...EXPECTED TEMPERATURES TO BE CLOSER TO NORMAL...WHICH IS BASICALLY THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S FOR HIGHS...WHILE LOWS GENERALLY RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S THIS TIME OF YEAR. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014 PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE THE CHANCE OF FOG/STRATUS FORMATION BETWEEN THE 09 AND 15Z TIME FRAME. A WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER EASTERN COLORADO IS SLATED TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST WHICH WOULD SWITCH THE WINDS FROM EASTERLY TO SSE. THIS IN TURN WOULD BRING FETCH OF HIGHER LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS INTO THE TERMINAL AREAS. THE MAIN QUESTION IS WHETHER THIS WILL OCCUR BEFORE THE SUN RISES AND HEATING TAKES PLACE. APPEARS IT WILL BE A CLOSE CALL. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE SREF AND HRRR MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE EXTENT OF THE FOG/STRATUS AND MOS GUIDANCE NOT SHOWING ANY VSBY/CIG ISSUES AT ALL. WILL DO THE SAME WITH THE FORECAST IN TERMS OF BACKING OFF THE TREND FOR LIFR CONDITIONS BUT WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR GOING. CONFIDENCE NOT REAL HIGH AND WILL CLOSELY MONITOR THE REST OF THE SHIFT. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...WESELY SHORT TERM...JCB LONG TERM...GUERRERO AVIATION...EWALD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1145 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014 SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE THE RETURN OF DEEPER MOISTURE TONIGHT AND LOW CLOUDS/FOG DEVELOPMENT. SEASONABLY STRONG 130-150KT UPPER LEVEL JETS WERE LOCATED OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. THESE FEATURES WERE ASSOCIATED WITH THE H5 TROF OFF THE WEST COAST AND ATTENDANT 130M+ HEIGHT FALLS. IN ADDITION...THERE WAS A NEGATIVELY TILTED H5 TROF NORTH OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. A BROAD H5 RIDGE WAS SITUATED OVER THE ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. AT H85...THE THERMAL RIDGE WAS OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILED ACROSS THE REGION WITH SUNSHINE AND MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S/80S. RECORDS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90...SO WELL BELOW THOSE LEVELS. WE HAD SOME DENSE FOG THAT DEVELOPED FROM ILLINOIS INTO MISSOURI...AND SPREAD INTO SOUTHERN IOWA AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...WHERE THE SURFACE DEWPOINTS WERE HIGH AHEAD OF THE DRIER AIR. AT 20Z...SURFACE DEWPOINTS VARIED FROM THE LOWER 30S IN THE NORTH NEAR THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER TO THE MID 50S JUST SOUTH OF BEATRICE. TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL INFLUENCE THE AREA WITH DRY AIR. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AND H85 WINDS SHOULD BE AROUND 25 TO 35KTS. THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS DO NOT GO OUT FAR ENOUGH ON SUNDAY. THE NAM/SREF ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAN THE GFS. THE RAP IS SIMILIAR TO THE NAM AND IS STRONGER WITH THE FORCING. AS THE SURFACE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH...THERE WILL BE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DEEPER MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS THAT WILL FAVOR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. DO MENTION AREAS OF FOG IN THE SOUTHWEST AND PATCHY FOG INTO THE CENTRAL ZONES/ THERE MAY BE SOME SPRINKLES OR DRIZZLE AND DEPENDING ON HOW LONG THE LOW CLOUDS HANG ON...WOULD AFFECT TEMPERATURES. THE MIXING FROM OMAHA NORTH AND NORTHEAST IS MORE QUESTIONABLE...THUS HAVE HIGHS 70 TO 75 WITH WARMER 75 TO 80 DEGREE TEMPS IN THE SOUTH FOR SUNDAY. A COOL FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND THERE MAY BE SOME POST FRONTAL SHOWERS MONDAY. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 60S AND 70S. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014 THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS GENERALLY DRY. A WEAK FRONT PASSES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED. THE EC DOES BRING THE RIDGING EAST...HOWEVER THE GFS IS SLOWER WITH THIS...THUS THE COOLER HIGHS IN THE 50S FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY COMPARED TO THE 60S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. && .AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014 STILL EXPECT CLOUDS TO BE ON THE INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AND INTO MID MORNING SUNDAY. CEILINGS MAY DROP INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AND THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME FOG. MOST LIKELY AREA FOR FOG WITH VSBY UNDER 3 MILES IS KLNK...WHICH MAY SEE AN IFR CEILING BRIEFLY TOO. AS WINDS ALOFT INCREASE AT AROUND 1000 FEET...SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND LAST INTO SUNDAY MORNING. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...ZAPOTOCNY LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY AVIATION...MILLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
308 PM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM DAYTIME TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 110 PM SUNDAY...STILL CRYSTAL CAROLINA BLUE SKIES THIS AFTERNOON AND A NONDESCRIPT COLD FRONT NORTH OF THE REGION WILL PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WILL ONLY A WEAK WIND SHIFT NOTED. WITH THE THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THE HRRR 12 UTC IS SHOWING A SEA-BREEZE DEVELOPING BUT REMAINING TRAPPED NEAR THE COAST MAINLY FROM CAROLINA BEACH SOUTHWARD. OVERNIGHT...WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVERHEAD...NO CLOUD COVER...AND LIGHT WINDS THE REGION WILL HAVE AN EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT. MINIMUM 2-METER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE MIDDLE 40S TO NEAR 50 OVERNIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST MONDAY WITH SURFACE WINDS VEERING FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON...THEN COMING AROUND TO THE SOUTH ON TUESDAY. SEVERAL DAYS OF PERFECTLY CLEAR SKIES MAY EVENTUALLY COME TO AN END WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS SOME THIN CIRRUS SPREADS IN AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH. THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE MUCH-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO AS HIGH AS +16C...ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR LATE OCTOBER AND LIKELY TO PUSH DAYTIME HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 80S INLAND FROM THE COAST BOTH DAYS. NEAR THE BEACHES A COOLER ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE RELATIVELY COOL OCEAN WATERS SHOULD HOLD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S. VERY DRY AIR UNDER THE HEART OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE MONDAY WILL GET ENTRAINED INTO THE DAYTIME MIXED LAYER WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS CRASHING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S...LOWEST ACROSS SE NORTH CAROLINA. THIS WILL CREATE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE. FORTUNATELY LIGHT WINDS UNDER THE HIGH WILL PRECLUDE THE FIRE WEATHER RISK FROM BECOMING TOO EXTREME. MOISTURE RETURNING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE DEPARTING HIGH WILL PUSH DEWPOINTS INTO THE 50S AND EVENTUALLY NEAR 60 TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...THE LONG TERM IS SHAPING UP TO OFFER TWO OR THREE DIFFERENT AIRMASSES. WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE ONE LAST DAY OF UNSEASONABLE WARMTH AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT AND BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BE LOSING GROUND. CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST ON WEDNESDAY WHICH MAY TEMPER THE WARMTH OVER WESTERN ZONES BUT MOST PLACES SHOULD STILL EXCEED 80 DEGREES. RAIN CHANCES THEN FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR THE FRONT, NOW FORECAST TO ARRIVE EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY. THE SECOND AIRMASS DESCRIBED IN THE FIST LINE WILL THEN BE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION AS THE FRONT SITS JUST OFF THE COAST AND WAITS TO GET KICKED BY THE MAIN ENERGY MOVING INTO THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO CLIMO THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. ITS TOUGH TO SAY WHETHER OR NOT SOME SMALL POPS ARE WARRANTED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST DURING THIS PART OF THE SETUP. BY SATURDAY THIS ENERGY ALOFT CAPTURES THE RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND. THE ENTIRE SYSTEM CUTS OFF AND THE COLD AIR ADVECTION SCREAMS INTO THE CAROLINAS. IT`S STILL TOO EARLY TO SAY JUST HOW SUPERLATIVE THIS COLD AIR ADVECTION BECOMES. THE GFS PUSHES 850MB TEMPS DOWN TO 1.5-4C (NORTH TO SOUTH) ACROSS THE REGION. THE ECMWF IS NOW WEAKER THAN ITS PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS BUT STILL PUSHES THE UNWELCOME 850MB 0C LINE SOUTH OF THE NC/SC STATE BORDER. OUR CURRENT CHILLY SUNDAY FORECAST OF HIGHS JUST 60-65 APPEAR ON TRACK AT THIS TIME. WILL LOWER SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS HOWEVER TO SHOW MID TO UPPER 30S AREA-WIDE. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 18Z...VFR/CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THIS TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE/DRYER AIR BUILDS INTO THE TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BE W-NW AROUND 10 KT AT ALL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. COULD BE ISOLATED GUSTS TO 20KT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS...BUT THE GENERAL TREND WILL BE FOR OVERALL WIND SPEEDS TO DECREASE AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME LGT/VRBL BY THIS EVENING...THEN PERSISTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXCEPT FOR A CHANCE OF COASTAL MVFR/INLAND IFR CONDITIONS IN EARLY MORNING FOG TUES/WED/THURS MORNINGS...VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS WED EVENING THROUGH THURS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT BECOMES STALLED JUST OFF THE COAST. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 110 PM SUNDAY...THE WINDS HAVE BACKED TO THE WEST AHEAD OF A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT. CURRENTLY THE BUOYS ARE SHOWING WEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS...AND THE ONLY IMPACT OF THE FRONT WILL BE TO VEER THE WINDS TO THE NORTH OVERNIGHT. THE WINDS SPEEDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE 10 KNOTS WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. SEAS ARE RUNNING BETWEEN 1 AND 2.5 FEET THIS AFTERNOON AND THEY ARE EXPECTED TO SETTLE OUT TO 0.5 TO 2.0 FEET OVERNIGHT. SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS MONDAY MORNING...THEN OFFSHORE MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LEAD TO VEERING WIND DIRECTIONS AND LIGHT WIND SPEEDS MONDAY... WITH SOUTH WINDS INCREASING TO 10-12 KT BY TUESDAY EVENING. THE LIGHT WIND SPEEDS AND LACK OF ANY CONSIDERABLE SWELL MEANS COMBINED SEAS WILL AVERAGE ONLY 1-2 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...WEDNESDAY TO BRING THE LAST DAY OF QUIET WEATHER WITH HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE AND A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS BOUNDARY WILL PUSH INTO AND THROUGH THE WATERS THURSDAY MORNING WITH AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT BUT A LESS DRAMATIC INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS OFTEN ACCOMPANIED BY SUCH BOUNDARIES. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD AND A COLD SURGE OF HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS IS STILL GOING TO BE FORTHCOMING...BUT IT MAY END UP WAITING TIL THE END OF THE PERIOD OR JUST BEYOND. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRA NEAR TERM...DRH SHORT TERM...TRA LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...MRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
111 PM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK COLD FRONT OR WIND SHIFT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD TONIGHT. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 110 PM SUNDAY...STILL CRYSTAL CAROLINA BLUE SKIES THIS AFTERNOON AND A NONDESCRIPT COLD FRONT NORTH OF THE REGION WILL PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WILL ONLY A WEAK WIND SHIFT NOTED. WITH THE THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THE HRRR 12 UTC IS SHOWING A SEA-BREEZE DEVELOPING BUT REMAINING TRAPPED NEAR THE COAST MAINLY FROM CAROLINA BEACH SOUTHWARD. OVERNIGHT...WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVERHEAD...NO CLOUD COVER...AND LIGHT WINDS THE REGION WILL HAVE AN EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT. MINIMUM 2-METER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE MIDDLE 40S TO NEAR 50 OVERNIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...GORGEOUS WEATHER TO CONTINUE THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...WITH CONDITIONS MORE APPROPRIATE FOR LATE SUMMER THAN MID-FALL ANTICIPATED. SURFACE HIGH OVERHEAD MONDAY MORNING WILL MOVE TO A POSITION EAST OF BERMUDA ON TUESDAY...CREATING A SUMMER-LIKE BERMUDA RIDGE TYPE SETUP. THIS SURFACE HIGH IS DRIVEN BY A STRENGTHENING RIDGE ALOFT...WHICH WILL ALSO MOVE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT MAINTAIN ANOMALOUSLY WARM THICKNESSES LOCALLY. THE RAISED HEIGHTS COMBINED WITH WARM RETURN FLOW WILL DRIVE TEMPS TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WIDESPREAD 80 DEGREE READINGS ARE EXPECTED AWAY FROM THE COAST ON MONDAY...WITH EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS FORECAST FOR TUESDAY WHEN RECORD HIGHS MAY BE APPROACHED (86 AT FLORENCE). TEMPS NEAR THE COAST WILL BE MUCH COOLER THANKS TO WHAT WILL LIKELY BECOME A STRONG SEA BREEZE AS LAND/OCEAN TEMP DIFFERENCES EXCEED 10 DEGREES. MINS WILL ALSO BE QUITE WARM BOTH NIGHTS...LOW/MID 50S MONDAY NIGHT...AND EVEN A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THAT TUESDAY NIGHT. NO PRECIP THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND EVEN CLOUD COVER WILL BE MINIMAL AT WORST. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...ENJOY THE WARMTH ON WEDNESDAY...BECAUSE THE SUMMER LIKE WEATHER WILL COME TO AN ABRUPT HALT THURSDAY. UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE AWAY ON WEDNESDAY...TO BE REPLACED BY A LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. TWO DISTINCT SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH...THE FIRST ON THURSDAY...THE SECOND LATE FRIDAY. THE FIRST ONE THURSDAY...WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH IS NOW PROGGED TO BE A BIT FASTER THANKS TO A LESS AMPLIFIED /FASTER/ MID-LEVEL FLOW. FRONT WILL CROSS THURSDAY MORNING...AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. OVERALL QPF STILL APPEARS TO BE RATHER LIMITED THANKS TO...AS THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER NOTED...ONLY A "THIN RIBBON" OF MOISTURE AND WEAK THETA-E RIDGING. STILL...CHC POP FOR THURSDAY WILL REMAIN. THIS FRONT WILL STALL JUST OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE SECOND SHORTWAVE DIVES INTO THE TROUGH. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS INTO WHETHER ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL PERSIST FRIDAY TO KEEP SHOWERS LOCALLY...BUT THE FRONT IN THE VICINITY COMBINED WITH SOME FORCING AS THE SECOND SHORTWAVE MOVES OVERHEAD...WILL AT LEAST PROVIDE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTN...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. THERE SHOULD BE RAPID DRYING BEHIND THIS SECOND IMPULSE AS IT DRIVES THE FRONT WELL FROM THE COAST...AND HALLOWEEN FESTIVITIES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY...BUT COOL. THEREAFTER A BIG COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED AS STRONG NEGATIVE ANOMALIES DEVELOP ALOFT DRIVING INTENSE COLD ADVECTION ACROSS THE EAST. THE FACT THAT IT WILL BE SO WARM EARLIER IN THE WEEK WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COLDER. EXTENDED MOS IS ALREADY 5-10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO NORMS...A SURE SIGNAL OF THE VERY COLD AIR ANTICIPATED. THE 25/12Z ECMWF SURE IS INTERESTING...BUT IS DISREGARDED ATTM FOR ITS EXTREME (AND NEW) BEHAVIOR. THUS THE UPCOMING WEEKEND LOOKS COLD AND DRY. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 18Z...VFR/CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THIS TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE/DRYER AIR BUILDS INTO THE TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BE W-NW AROUND 10 KT AT ALL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. COULD BE ISOLATED GUSTS TO 20KT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS...BUT THE GENERAL TREND WILL BE FOR OVERALL WIND SPEEDS TO DECREASE AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME LGT/VRBL BY THIS EVENING...THEN PERSISTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXCEPT FOR A CHANCE OF COASTAL MVFR/INLAND IFR CONDITIONS IN EARLY MORNING FOG TUES/WED/THURS MORNINGS...VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS WED EVENING THROUGH THURS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT BECOMES STALLED JUST OFF THE COAST. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 110 PM SUNDAY...THE WINDS HAVE BACKED TO THE WEST AHEAD OF A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT. CURRENTLY THE BUOYS ARE SHOWING WEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS...AND THE ONLY IMPACT OF THE FRONT WILL BE TO VEER THE WINDS TO THE NORTH OVERNIGHT. THE WINDS SPEEDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE 10 KNOTS WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. SEAS ARE RUNNING BETWEEN 1 AND 2.5 FEET THIS AFTERNOON AND THEY ARE EXPECTED TO SETTLE OUT TO 0.5 TO 2.0 FEET OVERNIGHT. SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE NEARLY OVERHEAD DURING MONDAY...BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY...AND THEN MOVING WELL EAST OF THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS CREATES A VERY WEAK GRADIENT MONDAY WITH VARIABLE WINDS...ALTHOUGH A PRONOUNCED SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED WITH SE WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WITHIN THE NEAR-SHORE WATERS. ELSEWHERE...WINDS WILL BE AROUND 5 KTS...VEERING FROM NE TO SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY. AS RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS TUESDAY...WINDS WILL RISE TO 10 KTS ACROSS ALL THE WATERS...WITH A SW DIRECTION PREDOMINANT. THESE LIGHT WINDS WILL KEEP WAVE HEIGHTS LOW...1-2 FT MONDAY...BECOMING 2-3 FT ONLY VERY LATE TUESDAY. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...COLD FRONT CROSSING THE WATERS EARLY THURSDAY CREATES TWO DISTINCT REGIMES IN THE EXTENDED. IN THE PRE-FRONTAL AIRMASS ON WEDNESDAY...SW WINDS WILL BE 10-15 KTS...CREATING 2-3 FT SEAS. FRONT WILL CROSS FROM NW TO SE EARLY THURSDAY...WITH A DECREASE IN SPEED AND A QUICK SHIFT TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION. THESE NORTH WINDS OF AROUND 10 KTS WILL PERSIST THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH WAVE HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE AROUND 2 FT ON THURSDAY...A CONFUSED SPECTRUM JUST BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED AS NORTHERLY WINDS ENVELOP THE WATERS. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...HAWKINS SHORT TERM...JDW LONG TERM...JDW AVIATION...MRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
950 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL MIGRATE OVERHEAD THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AND WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFFSHORE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...APPROACHING RECORD HIGHS TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND STALL JUST OFF THE COAST THURSDAY. AFTER A PROLONGED DRY SPELL...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL MID WEEK...POSSIBLY LINGERING AT THE COAST INTO FRIDAY. MUCH COLDER AIR IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 950 AM SUNDAY...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING CLEAR SKIES...AND THE 12 UTC UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING VERY DRY AIR ABOVE THE SURFACE THE MORNING. WITH THE THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THE HRRR 12 UTC IS SHOWING A SEA-BREEZE DEVELOPING BUT REMAINING NEAR/TRAPPED NEAR THE COAST MAINLY FROM CAROLINA BEACH SOUTHWARD. THE DRY AIR TODAY AND THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVING TOWARD THE AREA WILL ALLOW THE 2-METER TEMPERATURES TO WARM QUICKLY INTO THE UPPER 70S OVER SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND THE LOWER 80S OVER NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA. WITH THE SEA-BREEZE TRAPPED NEAR THE COAST TEMPERATURES AT THE IMMEDIATE BEACHES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM ONLY IN THE MIDDLE 70S. OVERNIGHT...WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVERHEAD...NO CLOUD COVE...AND LIGHT WINDS AN EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT IS IN ORDER. MINIMUM 2-METER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S RIGHT AROUND SUNRISE. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...GORGEOUS WEATHER TO CONTINUE THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...WITH CONDITIONS MORE APPROPRIATE FOR LATE SUMMER THAN MID-FALL ANTICIPATED. SURFACE HIGH OVERHEAD MONDAY MORNING WILL MOVE TO A POSITION EAST OF BERMUDA ON TUESDAY...CREATING A SUMMER-LIKE BERMUDA RIDGE TYPE SETUP. THIS SURFACE HIGH IS DRIVEN BY A STRENGTHENING RIDGE ALOFT...WHICH WILL ALSO MOVE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT MAINTAIN ANOMALOUSLY WARM THICKNESSES LOCALLY. THE RAISED HEIGHTS COMBINED WITH WARM RETURN FLOW WILL DRIVE TEMPS TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WIDESPREAD 80 DEGREE READINGS ARE EXPECTED AWAY FROM THE COAST ON MONDAY...WITH EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS FORECAST FOR TUESDAY WHEN RECORD HIGHS MAY BE APPROACHED (86 AT FLORENCE). TEMPS NEAR THE COAST WILL BE MUCH COOLER THANKS TO WHAT WILL LIKELY BECOME A STRONG SEA BREEZE AS LAND/OCEAN TEMP DIFFERENCES EXCEED 10 DEGREES. MINS WILL ALSO BE QUITE WARM BOTH NIGHTS...LOW/MID 50S MONDAY NIGHT...AND EVEN A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THAT TUESDAY NIGHT. NO PRECIP THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND EVEN CLOUD COVER WILL BE MINIMAL AT WORST. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...ENJOY THE WARMTH ON WEDNESDAY...BECAUSE THE SUMMER LIKE WEATHER WILL COME TO AN ABRUPT HALT THURSDAY. UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE AWAY ON WEDNESDAY...TO BE REPLACED BY A LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. TWO DISTINCT SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH...THE FIRST ON THURSDAY...THE SECOND LATE FRIDAY. THE FIRST ONE THURSDAY...WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH IS NOW PROGGED TO BE A BIT FASTER THANKS TO A LESS AMPLIFIED /FASTER/ MID-LEVEL FLOW. FRONT WILL CROSS THURSDAY MORNING...AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. OVERALL QPF STILL APPEARS TO BE RATHER LIMITED THANKS TO...AS THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER NOTED...ONLY A "THIN RIBBON" OF MOISTURE AND WEAK THETA-E RIDGING. STILL...CHC POP FOR THURSDAY WILL REMAIN. THIS FRONT WILL STALL JUST OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE SECOND SHORTWAVE DIVES INTO THE TROUGH. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS INTO WHETHER ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL PERSIST FRIDAY TO KEEP SHOWERS LOCALLY...BUT THE FRONT IN THE VICINITY COMBINED WITH SOME FORCING AS THE SECOND SHORTWAVE MOVES OVERHEAD...WILL AT LEAST PROVIDE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTN...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. THERE SHOULD BE RAPID DRYING BEHIND THIS SECOND IMPULSE AS IT DRIVES THE FRONT WELL FROM THE COAST...AND HALLOWEEN FESTIVITIES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY...BUT COOL. THEREAFTER A BIG COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED AS STRONG NEGATIVE ANOMALIES DEVELOP ALOFT DRIVING INTENSE COLD ADVECTION ACROSS THE EAST. THE FACT THAT IT WILL BE SO WARM EARLIER IN THE WEEK WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COLDER. EXTENDED MOS IS ALREADY 5-10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO NORMS...A SURE SIGNAL OF THE VERY COLD AIR ANTICIPATED. THE 25/12Z ECMWF SURE IS INTERESTING...BUT IS DISREGARDED ATTM FOR ITS EXTREME (AND NEW) BEHAVIOR. THUS THE UPCOMING WEEKEND LOOKS COLD AND DRY. && .AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 12Z...VFR EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THIS TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE/DRYER AIR BUILDS INTO THE TERMINALS. CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED... BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRAY SC THROUGH NOON. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WSW-WNW EARLY...BECOMING NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KT AT ALL TERMINALS 14-15Z AS THE INVERSION BREAKS. COULD BE A FEW GUSTS TO 20KT THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT THE GENERAL TREND IS FOR WIND SPEEDS TO DECREASE. EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME LGT/VRBL BY THIS EVENING. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT STALLS OFF THE COAST. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 950 AM SUNDAY...THE NORTHWEST WINDS ARE DECREASING THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT SHIFTS OVERHEAD. THE BUOY ARE CURRENTLY FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH 10 TO 15 KNOTS STILL BLOWING AT 20 MILES OFF THE COAST. SEAS ARE RUNNING AROUND 2 TO 3 FEET. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE WATERS WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AND SEAS WILL SETTLE OUT AT 2 FEET OVER LESS OVERNIGHT. SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE NEARLY OVERHEAD DURING MONDAY...BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY...AND THEN MOVING WELL EAST OF THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS CREATES A VERY WEAK GRADIENT MONDAY WITH VARIABLE WINDS...ALTHOUGH A PRONOUNCED SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED WITH SE WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WITHIN THE NEAR-SHORE WATERS. ELSEWHERE...WINDS WILL BE AROUND 5 KTS...VEERING FROM NE TO SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY. AS RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS TUESDAY...WINDS WILL RISE TO 10 KTS ACROSS ALL THE WATERS...WITH A SW DIRECTION PREDOMINANT. THESE LIGHT WINDS WILL KEEP WAVE HEIGHTS LOW...1-2 FT MONDAY...BECOMING 2-3 FT ONLY VERY LATE TUESDAY. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...COLD FRONT CROSSING THE WATERS EARLY THURSDAY CREATES TWO DISTINCT REGIMES IN THE EXTENDED. IN THE PRE-FRONTAL AIRMASS ON WEDNESDAY...SW WINDS WILL BE 10-15 KTS...CREATING 2-3 FT SEAS. FRONT WILL CROSS FROM NW TO SE EARLY THURSDAY...WITH A DECREASE IN SPEED AND A QUICK SHIFT TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION. THESE NORTH WINDS OF AROUND 10 KTS WILL PERSIST THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH WAVE HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE AROUND 2 FT ON THURSDAY...A CONFUSED SPECTRUM JUST BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED AS NORTHERLY WINDS ENVELOP THE WATERS. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...HAWKINS SHORT TERM...JDW LONG TERM...JDW AVIATION...MRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
950 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014 .DISCUSSION... COLD FRONT AT 230Z..FROM FAR NORTHEAST CORNER OK TO SC OK. RADAR OVER SMALL CORNER OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA UNIMPRESSIVE AT THIS TIME...JUST SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS. ONLY A COUPLE LIGHTNING STRIKES ALL EVENING NORTHEAST OK. LATEST WRF/HRRR DRIER THAN EARLIER RUNS. MODESTLY REDUCED POP FOR REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THUNDER THREAT NEGLIGIBLE. GW && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014/ DISCUSSION... THE 00Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW. AVIATION... CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM. A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY INTO NORTHEAST OK AND WILL CONTINUE TO THE SOUTHEAST THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD. POST FRONTAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE EXPTD OVER IN NW AR. BASED ON THIS THINKING...VCTS WILL BE USED FOR THE ERN OK SITES AND TEMPO GROUPS WILL BE USED FOR THE NW AR SITES...WITH THE TIMING BASED ON THE LATEST DATA FROM THE RUC13 AND HRRR MODELS. LACY PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014/ DISCUSSION... AFTER A BREEZY AND WARM START TO THE WORK WEEK...A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER PATTERN WILL DEVELOP FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. FIRST...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING...TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. LIMITED INSTABILITY WILL LESSEN THE CHANCE FOR ANY OF THE STORMS TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE...HOWEVER A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SMALL HAIL...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING...AS THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION SHIFTS TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL QUICKLY FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS NORTH...AS THE FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE SOUTH CONTINUING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST. THE FRONT WILL FINALLY SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING...LEAVING COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER BURST OF COOLER AIR FOR LATE IN THE WEEK. LOOKING AHEAD...ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 54 72 44 72 / 30 10 0 0 FSM 61 71 46 71 / 50 40 20 10 MLC 57 72 46 73 / 40 20 10 0 BVO 50 71 39 71 / 20 10 0 0 FYV 54 69 40 68 / 50 20 10 0 BYV 55 68 42 67 / 60 20 10 10 MKO 56 72 44 72 / 50 20 0 0 MIO 52 69 42 69 / 50 10 0 0 F10 56 71 47 72 / 30 10 0 0 HHW 63 71 51 73 / 20 40 20 10 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...NONE. AR...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...21 LONG TERM....21
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
626 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014 .DISCUSSION... THE 00Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW. && .AVIATION... CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM. A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY INTO NORTHEAST OK AND WILL CONTINUE TO THE SOUTHEAST THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD. POST FRONTAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE EXPTD OVER IN NW AR. BASED ON THIS THINKING...VCTS WILL BE USED FOR THE ERN OK SITES AND TEMPO GROUPS WILL BE USED FOR THE NW AR SITES...WITH THE TIMING BASED ON THE LATEST DATA FROM THE RUC13 AND HRRR MODELS. LACY && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014/ DISCUSSION... AFTER A BREEZY AND WARM START TO THE WORK WEEK...A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER PATTERN WILL DEVELOP FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. FIRST...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING...TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. LIMITED INSTABILITY WILL LESSEN THE CHANCE FOR ANY OF THE STORMS TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE...HOWEVER A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SMALL HAIL...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING...AS THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION SHIFTS TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL QUICKLY FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS NORTH...AS THE FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE SOUTH CONTINUING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST. THE FRONT WILL FINALLY SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING...LEAVING COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER BURST OF COOLER AIR FOR LATE IN THE WEEK. LOOKING AHEAD...ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 54 72 44 72 / 50 10 0 0 FSM 61 71 46 71 / 60 40 20 10 MLC 57 72 46 73 / 40 20 10 0 BVO 50 71 39 71 / 50 10 0 0 FYV 54 69 40 68 / 60 20 10 0 BYV 55 68 42 67 / 60 20 10 10 MKO 56 72 44 72 / 60 20 0 0 MIO 52 69 42 69 / 60 10 0 0 F10 56 71 47 72 / 50 10 0 0 HHW 63 71 51 73 / 40 40 20 10 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...NONE. AR...NONE. && $$ AVIATION...30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
1150 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014 .AVIATION... CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM. MVFR/IFR SHALLOW FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPING SITES KBVO KXNA KFYV KFSM OVERNIGHT. FOG LIFTING BY 14Z ALL LOCATIONS AS SOUTH WINDS INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE. VFR...BREEZY REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD, && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 842 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014/ DISCUSSION... AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS THIS EVENING IS GRADUALLY GETTING SUPPRESSED...AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST INTO THE NORTHWEST CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...A STATIONARY FRONT LIES ACROSS NORTHERN KS OVER INTO CENTRAL MO. TO THE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 60S. HIGHER THAN NORMAL MOISTURE NEAR THE GROUND COMBINED WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW FOG TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS. THE LATEST GUIDANCE FROM THE HRRR AND NAM IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH OUR FORECAST...AND THE ONLY TWEAK MADE WAS TO INTRODUCE FOG SOONER ACROSS PORTIONS OF FAR EASTERN OK WHERE A REPORT OF FOG HAS BEEN RECEIVED. INCREASING MID LEVEL FLOW OVER THE ROCKPILE DUE TO THE FLATTENING OF THE RIDGE MENTIONED EARLIER WILL PRODUCE A STRONG LEE TROUGH AT THE SURFACE OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON SUNDAY. AS A RESULT...LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME QUITE BREEZY ON SUNDAY OUT OF THE SOUTH BY AFTERNOON...IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE ACROSS NORTHEAST OK. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AND FULL INSOLATION WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB A BIT HIGHER THAN TODAY...WITH READINGS NEAR 90 ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST OK. HARD TO BELIEVE THIS IS OCCURRING IN LATE OCTOBER. A DOSE OF REALITY IS COMING NEXT WEEK HOWEVER. LACY PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 639 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014/ AVIATION... CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM. FOG LIKELY DEVELOPING AT SITES KBVO/KFYV/KXNA/KFSM AFTER 07Z. POTENTIAL IFR FOG/STRATUS...ESPECIALLY KFSM 09Z-14Z. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS...GENERALLY SKC. BRISK SOUTHERLY WIND DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WITH GUST TO 20-25KT. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014/ DISCUSSION... IT IS LATE OCTOBER BUT THAT FACT IS NOT READILY APPARENT BY THE CURRENT TEMPERATURES OR THE FORECAST TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. NEAR RECORD HEAT PREVAILS TODAY...WITH AT LEAST A COUPLE OF SITES LIKELY TO BE WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF RECORD HIGHS TOMORROW. PATCHY DENSE FOG COULD BECOME AN ISSUE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW...WITH THE BIGGEST PROBLEMS LIKELY TO AGAIN BE IN FAR EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS ALONG THE ARKANSAS RIVER...AND POSSIBLY IN THE CANEY RIVER VALLEY NEAR BARTLESVILLE AS WELL. NAM HANDLED THIS MORNINGS FOG THE BEST...AND ITS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES LOOK SIMILAR TOMORROW MORNING. CROSS OVER TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAVORABLE FOR THE DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT AGAIN. MUCH LIKE TODAY...THE FOG SHOULD BE GONE BY MID TO LATE MORNING AND PROVIDE LITTLE HINDRANCE TO THE WARM UP. HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN TODAYS IN MOST SPOTS...DESPITE THE FLATTENING OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A STRONGER SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND AHEAD OF A SLOWLY APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD MORE THAN BALANCE THAT OUT. THE FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO ENTER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY MIDDAY MONDAY...WHICH WILL PLACE THE PREFRONTAL WARM NOSE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY ON MONDAY DUE TO A COUPLE OF FACTORS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA BY THE AFTERNOON...AND THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED MORNING LOW CLOUDS IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. IN ADDITION...A COOLER AIRMASS OVER THE GULF COAST THIS MORNING WILL MIGRATE INTO EASTERN PARTS OF THE REGION ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH IN THE SOUTHEASTERN UNTIED STATES. THIS COOLER AIRMASS WILL OFFSET...AT LEAST TO SOME EXTENT...PREFRONTAL WARMING EFFECTS. DESPITE THESE COMPLICATIONS...CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT THERE WILL BE A ZONE ACROSS AT LEAST EASTERN OKLAHOMA WHERE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE GUIDANCE VALUES. RIGHT NOW...IT APPEARS THAT WILL BE SOMEWHERE FROM INTERSTATE 44 SOUTHWARD TO ABOUT MCALESTER AND WILBURTON. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AND THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PLAINS. THUNDER POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO LOOK MINIMAL BUT NON ZERO. THE FRONT SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY...BRINGING AN END TO THE RAIN. MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THIS FRONT AND PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES APPEAR IN THE OFFING FOR NEXT WEEKEND...AS MERIDIONAL FLOW DEVELOPS IN THE PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO A DEEP UPPER TROUGH IN THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE UNITED STATES. IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT WE MAY SEE THE FIRST FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES OF THE SEASON SOMETIME NEXT WEEKEND IF EXPECTATIONS DO NOT CHANGE IN THE NEXT WEEK. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 62 90 65 84 / 0 0 0 10 FSM 59 88 60 83 / 0 0 0 10 MLC 63 88 64 86 / 0 0 0 10 BVO 56 90 61 82 / 0 0 0 10 FYV 57 86 60 79 / 0 0 0 10 BYV 59 84 62 80 / 0 0 0 10 MKO 60 89 62 85 / 0 0 0 10 MIO 60 87 64 83 / 0 0 0 10 F10 62 88 64 86 / 0 0 0 10 HHW 61 87 60 83 / 0 0 0 10 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...NONE. AR...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...12 LONG TERM....12 AVIATION...21
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
1231 PM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014 ONE MORE DAY OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. GRADIENT INCREASES SO IT WILL BE A BREEZY DAY THOUGH...WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 30 MPH. THIS WIND COMBINED WITH LOW HUMIDITY...WILL RESULT IN VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND ADJACENT NORTHWEST IOWA. FEEL LIKE RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL GENERALLY STAY HIGH ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY RED FLAG CRITERIA. STILL UNCERTAINTY ON STRATUS DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING. LOW LEVELS REMAIN QUITE DRY...HOWEVER MODELS SHOW A NARROW CORRIDOR OF MOISTENING AROUND 850 MB. NAM AND GFS SATURATE THIS LEVEL...RESULTING IN A CORRIDOR OF STRATUS MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA. RAP AND HRRR STAY SHORT OF SATURATING THEY LAYER...AND THUS KEEP IT SUNNY. AT THIS TIME NO REAL WAY TO TELL WHICH IS CORRECT...SO WILL GO WITH A COMPROMISE AND MONITOR TRENDS OVER THE COMING HOURS. GIVEN THE LOWER SURFACE DEWPOINTS THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST...CONFIDENCE IS HOWEVER GROWING THAT DIURNALLY DRIVEN STRATOCU GENERATION IS UNLIKELY. THUS THINKING ANY STRATUS THAT DOES FORM WILL QUICKLY SHIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES RETURNING IN ITS WAKE. SO OVERALL...EXPECTING MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS TODAY OVER THE CWA. GIVEN THIS...AND WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT...WILL CONTINUE ON THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE...UPPER 60S SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA TO MID AND UPPER 70S ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER AND WEST OF THE JAMES. COLD FRONT WILL WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH WINDS TURNING NORTHERLY BEHIND IT. ANOTHER SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND WORRIED WE COULD SEE STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AFTER SUNSET EAST OF INTERSTATE 29. ALSO STARTING TO THINK WE MAY SEE FOG FORMATION ON THE EDGE OF THIS STRATUS...WHERE THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS WILL RESULT IN LIGHT SURFACE WINDS...AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP TOWARDS THE RELATIVELY HIGH DEWPOINT VALUES WE WILL HAVE. THUS ADDED SOME FOG INTO THE GRIDS FOR NORTHWEST IOWA AND ADJACENT SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. COULD POTENTIALLY BE A BIT FURTHER WEST TO...SO SOMETHING TO WATCH. FORCING INCREASES TONIGHT AS A WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THINK WE COULD BEGIN TO SEE SHOWERS DEVELOP ALONG THE ELEVATED FRONT BY 12Z ACROSS OUR SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA ZONES...SO WENT AHEAD AND ADDED SOME POPS INTO THAT REGION. SHOULD GENERALLY BE A MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014 COULD VERY WELL BE SOME LINGERING FOG IN NORTHWEST IA THROUGH MID MORNING MONDAY...BEHIND WHAT MAY BE DEPARTING STRATUS PLACING THAT AREA IN A FAVORABLE ZONE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. OTHERWISE MONDAY IS HIGHLIGHTED BY OUR WELL ADVERTISED MID AND UPPER WAVE PASSING ACROSS THIS AREA. THE WAVE IS OPEN AND NOT REAL ORGANIZED...AT LEAST WITH THE JET DYNAMICS AND UPPER QG FORCING. THE NAM IS MOST BULLISH WITH THE MOISTURE DEPTH FROM 850-500MB THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE A LITTLE LESS SO...AND ALSO QUICKER WITH THE WAVE PASSAGE WHICH LOOKS PREFERABLE TO THE SLOWER NAM. WITH THE WAVE OPEN NOT SURE WHAT WOULD HANG IT UP AS PER THE NAM SOLUTION. BUT ONE THING THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON IS SHOWING THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW AND MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SLOPED QUITE STRONGLY...WITH THE 850MB FRONTOGENESIS FAVORING NORTHWEST IA WHERE LIMITED MOISTURE EXISTS AT THAT LEVEL. BUT FURTHER NORTH...THE 700-600MB FRONTOGENESIS TAKES OVER AND THIS IS WHERE THE HIGHEST POPS ARE PLACED. STILL...WITH THE SKITTISHNESS OF THE OVERALL DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE PROFILE...KEPT POPS MAINLY ONLY IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR LIGHT RAINFALL. SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AND WILL BECOME QUITE BREEZY BY AFTERNOON. IN OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES...THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER INDEX STAYS JUST INSIDE THE HIGH CATEGORY...AS MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES LOOK A BIT TOO HIGH...AND WIND SPEEDS A LITTLE TOO LOW TO WARRANT A VERY HIGH INDEX AT THIS TIME. CONCERNING TEMPERATURES...COMPARED TO WHAT WE HAVE BEEN HAVING LATELY...COOLER AIR WILL BE ADVECTING IN GIVING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...WHICH IS STILL A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. BUT THIS WILL CHANGE ON TUESDAY...AS COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES TO POUR IN THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT ALONG A SECOND WAVE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE PARENT UPPER TROUGH. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ONLY LOOK TO BE GENERALLY IN THE RANGE OF 50 TO 55 DEGREES. AND WITH STOUT NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH...WITH POTENTIALLY HIGHER GUSTS...THAT WILL ADD AN EXTRA CHILL TO THE AIR. IN ADDITION...ALL OF THE VARIOUS DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE SHOWING A LOT OF MOISTURE IN THE 850-800MB LAYER...GENERALLY BISECTING THE FORECAST AREA FROM NEAR HURON...TO SIOUX FALLS AND STORM LAKE IOWA. ANYTHING ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF THAT LINE WILL LIKELY BE CONSIDERABLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE DAY...WITH INCREASINGLY SUNNY CONDITIONS HEADING TOWARD OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES. THE FIRE DANGER ONCE AGAIN WILL BE ELEVATED IN THE HIGH CATEGORY... BUT RIGHT NOW HUMIDITY VALUES LOOK TOO HIGH TO PLACE THE INDEX IN THE VERY HIGH CATEGORY. FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH WINDS DECREASING DRAMATICALLY AND CLEARING SKIES...LOWS WILL LIKELY BE ON THE COOL SIDE OF MANY OF THE GUIDANCE VALUES. BECAUSE OF THIS...CHOSE TO GO WITH THE BIAS CORRECTED RAW VALUES WHICH GAVE THE COOLEST LOW TEMPERATURES OF AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING. FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE FORECAST STILL LOOKS DRY AND COOL. THE DETERMINISTIC GFS AND ECMWF FOR THE MOST PART ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH SATURDAY WHICH MAKES THE FORECAST EASIER. THERE IS ONE WEAK WAVE WHICH MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANOTHER STRONGER AND COLD SHORT WAVE DIVES DOWN THE FLOW THURSDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH THIS SECOND FEATURE AND LIKELY BETTER AS THE GFS LOOKS TOO WASHED OUT WITH THE WAVE. THEREFORE CONTINUED TO BLEND SOME OF THE COOLER ECMWF VALUES INTO THE CONSENSUS TEMPERATURES FOR LATE THIS WEEK. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014 VFR THROUGH 27/06Z. A FEW SURFACE GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL 26/22Z. 27/06Z-18Z VFR WILL CONTINUE NORTHWEST OF A SUX/MWM LINE WITH SLOWLY LOWERING CEILINGS AND DEVELOPING SCATTERED -SHRA...WHILE CEILINGS LOWER TO 1-3K FEET ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE SUX/MWM LINE. AREAS OF VISIBILITY 3-5SM IN LIGHT FOG/BR WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA 27/09Z-15Z. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...CHENARD LONG TERM...MJ AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
649 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014 ONE MORE DAY OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. GRADIENT INCREASES SO IT WILL BE A BREEZY DAY THOUGH...WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 30 MPH. THIS WIND COMBINED WITH LOW HUMIDITY...WILL RESULT IN VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND ADJACENT NORTHWEST IOWA. FEEL LIKE RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL GENERALLY STAY HIGH ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY RED FLAG CRITERIA. STILL UNCERTAINTY ON STRATUS DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING. LOW LEVELS REMAIN QUITE DRY...HOWEVER MODELS SHOW A NARROW CORRIDOR OF MOISTENING AROUND 850 MB. NAM AND GFS SATURATE THIS LEVEL...RESULTING IN A CORRIDOR OF STRATUS MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA. RAP AND HRRR STAY SHORT OF SATURATING THEY LAYER...AND THUS KEEP IT SUNNY. AT THIS TIME NO REAL WAY TO TELL WHICH IS CORRECT...SO WILL GO WITH A COMPROMISE AND MONITOR TRENDS OVER THE COMING HOURS. GIVEN THE LOWER SURFACE DEWPOINTS THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST...CONFIDENCE IS HOWEVER GROWING THAT DIURNALLY DRIVEN STRATOCU GENERATION IS UNLIKELY. THUS THINKING ANY STRATUS THAT DOES FORM WILL QUICKLY SHIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES RETURNING IN ITS WAKE. SO OVERALL...EXPECTING MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS TODAY OVER THE CWA. GIVEN THIS...AND WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT...WILL CONTINUE ON THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE...UPPER 60S SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA TO MID AND UPPER 70S ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER AND WEST OF THE JAMES. COLD FRONT WILL WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH WINDS TURNING NORTHERLY BEHIND IT. ANOTHER SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND WORRIED WE COULD SEE STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AFTER SUNSET EAST OF INTERSTATE 29. ALSO STARTING TO THINK WE MAY SEE FOG FORMATION ON THE EDGE OF THIS STRATUS...WHERE THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS WILL RESULT IN LIGHT SURFACE WINDS...AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP TOWARDS THE RELATIVELY HIGH DEWPOINT VALUES WE WILL HAVE. THUS ADDED SOME FOG INTO THE GRIDS FOR NORTHWEST IOWA AND ADJACENT SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. COULD POTENTIALLY BE A BIT FURTHER WEST TO...SO SOMETHING TO WATCH. FORCING INCREASES TONIGHT AS A WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THINK WE COULD BEGIN TO SEE SHOWERS DEVELOP ALONG THE ELEVATED FRONT BY 12Z ACROSS OUR SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA ZONES...SO WENT AHEAD AND ADDED SOME POPS INTO THAT REGION. SHOULD GENERALLY BE A MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014 COULD VERY WELL BE SOME LINGERING FOG IN NORTHWEST IA THROUGH MID MORNING MONDAY...BEHIND WHAT MAY BE DEPARTING STRATUS PLACING THAT AREA IN A FAVORABLE ZONE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. OTHERWISE MONDAY IS HIGHLIGHTED BY OUR WELL ADVERTISED MID AND UPPER WAVE PASSING ACROSS THIS AREA. THE WAVE IS OPEN AND NOT REAL ORGANIZED...AT LEAST WITH THE JET DYNAMICS AND UPPER QG FORCING. THE NAM IS MOST BULLISH WITH THE MOISTURE DEPTH FROM 850-500MB THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE A LITTLE LESS SO...AND ALSO QUICKER WITH THE WAVE PASSAGE WHICH LOOKS PREFERABLE TO THE SLOWER NAM. WITH THE WAVE OPEN NOT SURE WHAT WOULD HANG IT UP AS PER THE NAM SOLUTION. BUT ONE THING THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON IS SHOWING THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW AND MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SLOPED QUITE STRONGLY...WITH THE 850MB FRONTOGENESIS FAVORING NORTHWEST IA WHERE LIMITED MOISTURE EXISTS AT THAT LEVEL. BUT FURTHER NORTH...THE 700-600MB FRONTOGENESIS TAKES OVER AND THIS IS WHERE THE HIGHEST POPS ARE PLACED. STILL...WITH THE SKITTISHNESS OF THE OVERALL DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE PROFILE...KEPT POPS MAINLY ONLY IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR LIGHT RAINFALL. SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AND WILL BECOME QUITE BREEZY BY AFTERNOON. IN OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES...THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER INDEX STAYS JUST INSIDE THE HIGH CATEGORY...AS MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES LOOK A BIT TOO HIGH...AND WIND SPEEDS A LITTLE TOO LOW TO WARRANT A VERY HIGH INDEX AT THIS TIME. CONCERNING TEMPERATURES...COMPARED TO WHAT WE HAVE BEEN HAVING LATELY...COOLER AIR WILL BE ADVECTING IN GIVING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...WHICH IS STILL A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. BUT THIS WILL CHANGE ON TUESDAY...AS COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES TO POUR IN THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT ALONG A SECOND WAVE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE PARENT UPPER TROUGH. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ONLY LOOK TO BE GENERALLY IN THE RANGE OF 50 TO 55 DEGREES. AND WITH STOUT NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH...WITH POTENTIALLY HIGHER GUSTS...THAT WILL ADD AN EXTRA CHILL TO THE AIR. IN ADDITION...ALL OF THE VARIOUS DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE SHOWING A LOT OF MOISTURE IN THE 850-800MB LAYER...GENERALLY BISECTING THE FORECAST AREA FROM NEAR HURON...TO SIOUX FALLS AND STORM LAKE IOWA. ANYTHING ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF THAT LINE WILL LIKELY BE CONSIDERABLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE DAY...WITH INCREASINGLY SUNNY CONDITIONS HEADING TOWARD OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES. THE FIRE DANGER ONCE AGAIN WILL BE ELEVATED IN THE HIGH CATEGORY... BUT RIGHT NOW HUMIDITY VALUES LOOK TOO HIGH TO PLACE THE INDEX IN THE VERY HIGH CATEGORY. FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH WINDS DECREASING DRAMATICALLY AND CLEARING SKIES...LOWS WILL LIKELY BE ON THE COOL SIDE OF MANY OF THE GUIDANCE VALUES. BECAUSE OF THIS...CHOSE TO GO WITH THE BIAS CORRECTED RAW VALUES WHICH GAVE THE COOLEST LOW TEMPERATURES OF AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING. FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE FORECAST STILL LOOKS DRY AND COOL. THE DETERMINISTIC GFS AND ECMWF FOR THE MOST PART ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH SATURDAY WHICH MAKES THE FORECAST EASIER. THERE IS ONE WEAK WAVE WHICH MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANOTHER STRONGER AND COLD SHORT WAVE DIVES DOWN THE FLOW THURSDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH THIS SECOND FEATURE AND LIKELY BETTER AS THE GFS LOOKS TOO WASHED OUT WITH THE WAVE. THEREFORE CONTINUED TO BLEND SOME OF THE COOLER ECMWF VALUES INTO THE CONSENSUS TEMPERATURES FOR LATE THIS WEEK. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014 CONFIDENCE IN MVFR STRATUS THIS MORNING IS DECREASING. STILL LOOKS LIKE WE COULD SEE A SWATH OF STRATUS THAT DEVELOPS THIS MORNING AROUND 2500 FEET...BUT EVEN IF THIS DOES FORM IT SHOULD BE PRETTY PROGRESSIVE AND QUICKLY MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE TAF SITES. THUS MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD END UP VFR...ALTHOUGH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTING UP TO AROUND 25 KTS. COULD SEE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT EAST OF INTERSTATE 29. FOR NOW THINK THAT IF THIS DOES FORM IT SHOULD STAY EAST OF THE TAF SITES...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...CHENARD LONG TERM...MJ AVIATION...CHENARD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
416 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014 ONE MORE DAY OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. GRADIENT INCREASES SO IT WILL BE A BREEZY DAY THOUGH...WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 30 MPH. THIS WIND COMBINED WITH LOW HUMIDITY...WILL RESULT IN VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND ADJACENT NORTHWEST IOWA. FEEL LIKE RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL GENERALLY STAY HIGH ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY RED FLAG CRITERIA. STILL UNCERTAINTY ON STRATUS DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING. LOW LEVELS REMAIN QUITE DRY...HOWEVER MODELS SHOW A NARROW CORRIDOR OF MOISTENING AROUND 850 MB. NAM AND GFS SATURATE THIS LEVEL...RESULTING IN A CORRIDOR OF STRATUS MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA. RAP AND HRRR STAY SHORT OF SATURATING THEY LAYER...AND THUS KEEP IT SUNNY. AT THIS TIME NO REAL WAY TO TELL WHICH IS CORRECT...SO WILL GO WITH A COMPROMISE AND MONITOR TRENDS OVER THE COMING HOURS. GIVEN THE LOWER SURFACE DEWPOINTS THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST...CONFIDENCE IS HOWEVER GROWING THAT DIURNALLY DRIVEN STRATOCU GENERATION IS UNLIKELY. THUS THINKING ANY STRATUS THAT DOES FORM WILL QUICKLY SHIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES RETURNING IN ITS WAKE. SO OVERALL...EXPECTING MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS TODAY OVER THE CWA. GIVEN THIS...AND WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT...WILL CONTINUE ON THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE...UPPER 60S SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA TO MID AND UPPER 70S ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER AND WEST OF THE JAMES. COLD FRONT WILL WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH WINDS TURNING NORTHERLY BEHIND IT. ANOTHER SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND WORRIED WE COULD SEE STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AFTER SUNSET EAST OF INTERSTATE 29. ALSO STARTING TO THINK WE MAY SEE FOG FORMATION ON THE EDGE OF THIS STRATUS...WHERE THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS WILL RESULT IN LIGHT SURFACE WINDS...AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP TOWARDS THE RELATIVELY HIGH DEWPOINT VALUES WE WILL HAVE. THUS ADDED SOME FOG INTO THE GRIDS FOR NORTHWEST IOWA AND ADJACENT SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. COULD POTENTIALLY BE A BIT FURTHER WEST TO...SO SOMETHING TO WATCH. FORCING INCREASES TONIGHT AS A WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THINK WE COULD BEGIN TO SEE SHOWERS DEVELOP ALONG THE ELEVATED FRONT BY 12Z ACROSS OUR SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA ZONES...SO WENT AHEAD AND ADDED SOME POPS INTO THAT REGION. SHOULD GENERALLY BE A MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014 COULD VERY WELL BE SOME LINGERING FOG IN NORTHWEST IA THROUGH MID MORNING MONDAY...BEHIND WHAT MAY BE DEPARTING STRATUS PLACING THAT AREA IN A FAVORABLE ZONE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. OTHERWISE MONDAY IS HIGHLIGHTED BY OUR WELL ADVERTISED MID AND UPPER WAVE PASSING ACROSS THIS AREA. THE WAVE IS OPEN AND NOT REAL ORGANIZED...AT LEAST WITH THE JET DYNAMICS AND UPPER QG FORCING. THE NAM IS MOST BULLISH WITH THE MOISTURE DEPTH FROM 850-500MB THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE A LITTLE LESS SO...AND ALSO QUICKER WITH THE WAVE PASSAGE WHICH LOOKS PREFERABLE TO THE SLOWER NAM. WITH THE WAVE OPEN NOT SURE WHAT WOULD HANG IT UP AS PER THE NAM SOLUTION. BUT ONE THING THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON IS SHOWING THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW AND MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SLOPED QUITE STRONGLY...WITH THE 850MB FRONTOGENESIS FAVORING NORTHWEST IA WHERE LIMITED MOISTURE EXISTS AT THAT LEVEL. BUT FURTHER NORTH...THE 700-600MB FRONTOGENESIS TAKES OVER AND THIS IS WHERE THE HIGHEST POPS ARE PLACED. STILL...WITH THE SKITTISHNESS OF THE OVERALL DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE PROFILE...KEPT POPS MAINLY ONLY IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR LIGHT RAINFALL. SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AND WILL BECOME QUITE BREEZY BY AFTERNOON. IN OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES...THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER INDEX STAYS JUST INSIDE THE HIGH CATEGORY...AS MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES LOOK A BIT TOO HIGH...AND WIND SPEEDS A LITTLE TOO LOW TO WARRANT A VERY HIGH INDEX AT THIS TIME. CONCERNING TEMPERATURES...COMPARED TO WHAT WE HAVE BEEN HAVING LATELY...COOLER AIR WILL BE ADVECTING IN GIVING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...WHICH IS STILL A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. BUT THIS WILL CHANGE ON TUESDAY...AS COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES TO POUR IN THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT ALONG A SECOND WAVE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE PARENT UPPER TROUGH. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ONLY LOOK TO BE GENERALLY IN THE RANGE OF 50 TO 55 DEGREES. AND WITH STOUT NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH...WITH POTENTIALLY HIGHER GUSTS...THAT WILL ADD AN EXTRA CHILL TO THE AIR. IN ADDITION...ALL OF THE VARIOUS DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE SHOWING A LOT OF MOISTURE IN THE 850-800MB LAYER...GENERALLY BISECTING THE FORECAST AREA FROM NEAR HURON...TO SIOUX FALLS AND STORM LAKE IOWA. ANYTHING ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF THAT LINE WILL LIKELY BE CONSIDERABLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE DAY...WITH INCREASINGLY SUNNY CONDITIONS HEADING TOWARD OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES. THE FIRE DANGER ONCE AGAIN WILL BE ELEVATED IN THE HIGH CATEGORY... BUT RIGHT NOW HUMIDITY VALUES LOOK TOO HIGH TO PLACE THE INDEX IN THE VERY HIGH CATEGORY. FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH WINDS DECREASING DRAMATICALLY AND CLEARING SKIES...LOWS WILL LIKELY BE ON THE COOL SIDE OF MANY OF THE GUIDANCE VALUES. BECAUSE OF THIS...CHOSE TO GO WITH THE BIAS CORRECTED RAW VALUES WHICH GAVE THE COOLEST LOW TEMPERATURES OF AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING. FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE FORECAST STILL LOOKS DRY AND COOL. THE DETERMINISTIC GFS AND ECMWF FOR THE MOST PART ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH SATURDAY WHICH MAKES THE FORECAST EASIER. THERE IS ONE WEAK WAVE WHICH MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANOTHER STRONGER AND COLD SHORT WAVE DIVES DOWN THE FLOW THURSDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH THIS SECOND FEATURE AND LIKELY BETTER AS THE GFS LOOKS TOO WASHED OUT WITH THE WAVE. THEREFORE CONTINUED TO BLEND SOME OF THE COOLER ECMWF VALUES INTO THE CONSENSUS TEMPERATURES FOR LATE THIS WEEK. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1041 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014 VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z/26. SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA WITH MARGINAL LOW LEVEL JET AT KHON. FURTHER EAST THE LOW LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER....SO DID NOT INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST. MVFR STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NEBRASKA AND LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA INTO MINNESOTA AND IOWA. HAVE INCLUDED SOME LOWER CEILINGS AT BOTH KFSD AND KSUX. QUESTIONS REMAINS AS TO WHETHER THE CEILING WILL MIX OUT...OR WILL HANG TOUGH THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS SUNDAY NIGHT. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...CHENARD LONG TERM...MJ AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1155 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014 .AVIATION... VFR THRU THE EVNG HOURS. LLVL MOISTURE IS BEGINNING TO RETURN BACK TO THE REGION & WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT AGAIN TONIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT & MON MORNING. HELD OFF ON THIS ATTM AND JUST ADVERTISED SCT 1000-2000 FT DECKS...BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THINGS AND AMEND IF NECESSARILY. ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS AREAWIDE TOWARD MID MORNING. TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO INCREASE SRLY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. 47 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 945 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014/ HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS MORNING. THE PATCHY FOG WHICH HAD BEEN OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS WAS DISSIPATING AS OF 9 AM. THIS WAS ON PAR WITH THE NAMBUFR AND RUC13 MODEL SOUNDING FORECASTS. WILL ISSUE AN UPDATE TO TAKE OUT THE FOG MENTION. 40 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 86 62 86 66 85 / 0 0 10 10 10 HOUSTON (IAH) 86 63 85 67 85 / 0 0 10 10 20 GALVESTON (GLS) 80 71 81 74 81 / 0 0 10 10 20 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
945 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014 .DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS MORNING. THE PATCHY FOG WHICH HAD BEEN OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS WAS DISSIPATING AS OF 9 AM. THIS WAS ON PAR WITH THE NAMBUFR AND RUC13 MODEL SOUNDING FORECASTS. WILL ISSUE AN UPDATE TO TAKE OUT THE FOG MENTION. 40 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 658 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014/ UPDATE... FOG IN THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES GETTING THICKER AND FEW SITES REPORTING VISBY OF 1/2 MILE OR LESS. HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10 TO BELTWAY 8 AND WEST OF I-45. THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BETWEEN 8 AND 9 AM. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 639 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014/ DISCUSSION... PLEASE SEE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. AVIATION... MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS THIS PERIOD CENTER AROUND FOG THIS MORNING AND THE POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS MONDAY MORNING. PATCHY FOG AS OF 11Z IS RESULTING IN TEMPO CATEGORY REDUCTIONS AT KCXO...KSGR...AND KLBX. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND AMEND AS NECESSARY...BUT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATE SURFACE HEATING TO DISSIPATE FOG BY 14Z. OTHERWISE... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS MORNING WILL STRENGTHEN TO NEAR 10 KTS BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS LEE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS DEEPENS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND MODEL RH FIELDS INDICATE A POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS TOMORROW MORNING FOR TAF SITES MAINLY NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10 COURTESY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION OFF THE GULF. WILL NOT INTRODUCE ANY CATEGORY CHANGES AT THIS TIME /DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE AND OCCURRENCE AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD/...BUT LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO INTRODUCE MVFR CIGS. 14 PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014/ DISCUSSION... SO FAR THIS MORNING MAINLY JUST PATCHY FOG OVER THE SOUTHWEST AREAS...GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10-WEST OF I-45. STILL A FEW MORE HOURS TO RADIATE DOWN AND GIVEN THE LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW OF THE LAST FEW HOURS THE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S EXPECT THE FOG TO GET A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD BUT ANY DENSE FOG SHOULD BE VERY PATCHY AND SHALLOW BUT RURAL AREAS WILL LIKELY HAVE FOG. TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY WITH A SLOW INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS AS SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED WITH THE EASTWARD RETREAT OF THE SURFACE RIDGING. A FEW CU WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHWEST AREAS WITH FULL SUN ELSEWHERE. THE UPPER RIDGING ACROSS TX WILL FLATTEN AND SHIFT EAST INTO FLORIDA MONDAY WITH AN UNUSUALLY STRONG RIDGE FORMING NW OF HAWAII. DOWNSTREAM THE TROUGH DROPS DOWN THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH MOISTURE AND SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING MONDAY (MAYBE EVEN BREEZY IN THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON HOURS). THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES EAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT LOSES STEAM AS IT DROPS OUT OF NETX INTO SETX. RAIN CHANCES DO INCREASE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH A 20-40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. VERY LOW CAPE ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTS SOME GARDEN VARIETY THUNDERSTORMS WITH SLOW MOVING STORMS THE FAVORED TYPE BUT HEAVY RAIN SEEMS UNLIKELY GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING AND LOW PW VALUES. UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES EARLY THURSDAY TAPPING INTO A CANADIAN AIRMASS THAT RACES SOUTH AND REINFORCES THE SAGGY PACIFIC COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD BE REACHING THE COAST THURSDAY EVENING...FOLLOWED BY THE CANADIAN AIRMASS ON HALLOWEEN. RAIN CHANCES PLUMMET THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE SUBSIDENCE RAMPS UP AND LL FOCUS SHIFT OUT INTO THE GULF. HALLOWEEN SHOULD BE DRY/COOL WITH NORTHERLY FLOW. THE GHOULS AND GOBLINS SHOULD HAVE A WONDERFUL EVENING AS TEMPERATURES FALL FROM THE MID 70S AROUND 4-5PM TO LOWER 60S BY 8-9PM WITH A HALF MOON AND CLEAR SKIES. GFS AND ECMWF DO START TO PAINT AN INTERESTING PATTERN DEVELOPING AROUND 240 HOURS AND BEYOND WITH A DEEP TROUGH TO THE WEST AND VERY JUICY TROPICAL TAP FEEDING OFF OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE PACIFIC THAT GETS CAUGHT UP AND PULLED ACROSS MEXICO TOWARD SETX/CNTX/STX...PERHAPS A HEAVY RAIN EVENING IN THE MAKING. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS PATTERNS EVOLUTION IN THE COMING WEEK. 45 MARINE... LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY AS SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS FROM LEE TROUGH ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. WINDS/SEAS WILL INCREASE ACCORDINGLY... WITH WINDS NEAR 15 KTS POSSIBLE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS STARTING LATE TONIGHT. GIVEN BORDERLINE CONDITIONS...LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO INCLUDE CAUTION STATEMENTS /PRIMARILY FOR MONDAY NIGHT/. BY MID-WEEK... WINDS/SEAS WILL FALL AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM. A WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY AS THIS SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS. FRONT LOOKS TO STALL ALONG THE COAST...BEFORE RECEIVING A SECONDARY PUSH OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY. MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE FRONT/S WAKE WILL PROBABLY REQUIRE ADVISORY FLAGS INTO THE 1ST PART OF THE WEEKEND. ONSHORE FLOW LOOKS TO RESUME BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. 14 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 86 62 86 66 85 / 0 0 10 10 10 HOUSTON (IAH) 86 63 85 67 85 / 0 0 10 10 20 GALVESTON (GLS) 80 71 81 74 81 / 0 0 10 10 20 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...40 AVIATION/MARINE...47
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1225 AM CDT Sun Oct 26 2014 .DISCUSSION... Please see the 06Z aviation discussion below. && .AVIATION... VFR flight conditions with generally light winds will prevail through the forecast period across all TAF sites. The only change of note to the going TAFs was to remove the mention of MVFR fog at KHOB Sunday morning, as recent guidance indicates the potential for fog development to be very low. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 916 PM CDT Sat Oct 25 2014/ DISCUSSION... Satellite imagery shows another clear night over West Texas and SE NM, w/sfc obs showing a little more return flow than 24 hours ago. Latest NAM develops a 30+kt LLJ overnight. this, and the fact that very little fog developed last night, fog development looks doubtful overnight. The HRRR agrees. However, forecast soundings suggest temps can be lowered a couple of degrees. We`ll do a quick update for this, and adjust other parameters as necessary. Updates out shortly. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 148 PM CDT Sat Oct 25 2014/ DISCUSSION... Areal coverage of fog was less this morning than yesterday, with only a couple of observation sites reporting dense fog this morning, and satellite imagery verifying very sparse coverage overall. An upper ridge over the region will keep well above normal temperatures going this afternoon and Sunday. Further drying of the boundary layer, and more pointedly the ground, in addition to the warmer afternoon temperatures taking longer to cool to surface dewpoints overnight will likely continue the trend of less fog the next couple of mornings. The next couple of days temperatures will approach, if not eclipse, record levels as the ua ridge over the region flattens due to an ua trough traversing the western/central ConUS. The record high temperature for Midland International Airport is 90 degrees for today, the 25th, but also the 26th and 27th in 2011, 1950 and 1988 respectively. Although record highs are not looking likely this afternoon, a surface trough developing south into the area Sunday, and the associated low level thermal ridge, could allow temps to warm near record levels. On Monday, increasing southwesterly flow aloft will aid and abet southwest to west downslope, surface winds, which could also promote temperatures warming to near, or above, record levels. The only caveat Monday will be some increase in high clouds tempering readings a little. Southwest winds will increase the most in the Guadalupe Mountains Monday, but at this time it does not appear mid level winds will be strong enough for high winds there. A fairly significant cool down is expected Tuesday as a cold front drops south into the region in the wake of the mentioned ua trough. Subsequent shifts will have to monitor whether a high gap wind event will be possible in Guadalupe Pass behind the front. High temperatures will end up 2 to 5 degrees below normal Tuesday afternoon, especially north of Interstate 10. In addition, temperatures could cool into the upper 50s over southeast New Mexico and the northern Permian Basin late Tuesday afternoon. Seasonal temperatures will prevail areawide Wednesday before a gradual warming trend sets in Thursday and beyond. Just how much it warms late next week will depend on how aggressively an ua ridge builds eastward over the region, and will likely split the difference between more/less aggressive model offerings. As far as rain chances, showers and thunderstorms could affect the Lower Trans Pecos, westward into the Davis Mountains and Big Bend region Tuesday to Thursday. Since the amplitude of the passing ua troughs are not progged to be very deep, and the quality of moisture over the region is not progged to be very good, will leave the extended forecast dry for now. && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...NONE. TX...NONE. && $$ 84 Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: http://facebook.com/NWSMidland http://twitter.com/NWSMidland Check us out on the internet at: http://weather.gov/midland
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
545 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE FIRST WIDESPREAD FROST OF THE SEASON SO FAR MAY OCCUR THIS WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... THERE HAS BEEN AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE OFFSHORE HIGH. THIS MOISTURE PLUS NOCTURNAL COOLING WITH DRY AIR ALOFT HAS HELPED CAUSE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IN THE EASTERN MIDLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING AND WE HAVE POSTED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THAT SECTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE HRRR DISPLAYS THE FOG SPREADING WESTWARD AND INTO MUCH OF THE REMAINING FORECAST AREA BEFORE 900 AM. WE MAY NEED TO EXPAND THE ADVISORY WESTWARD. HOWEVER...DEW POINT TEMPERATURES ARE LOWER IN THE WEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AND SATELLITE TRENDS HAVE INDICATED LITTLE DEVELOPMENT WESTWARD AND INTO THIS DRIER AIR. THE MOISTURE IS SHALLOW. HEATING AND MIXING SHOULD DISSIPATE THE FOG LATER THIS MORNING. THE HRRR SHOWS FOG DIMINISHING BETWEEN 1000 AM AND 1100 AM. IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH PLENTY OF AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. WE USED THE WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BASED ON RECENT VERIFICATION. EXPECT READINGS JUST SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN YESTERDAY BASED ON THE INCREASED MOISTURE AND WEAK H85 COLD ADVECTION. THE DRY WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH THE RIDGING REMAINING DOMINATE. NOCTURNAL COOLING AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY SUPPORT AREAS OF FOG AGAIN BUT THE FOG MAY BE LIMITED BY AN INCREASE IN BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. IT MAY BE MORE STRATUS THAN FOG BECAUSE OF THIS WIND. LEANED TOWARD THE MORE CONSISTENT MAV MOS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST TONIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... THE NAM AND GFS DISPLAY THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WEDNESDAY. THE NAM AND GFS MOS HAVE CHANCE POPS AND THIS APPEARS REASONABLE. SATELLITE TRENDS AND THE MODELS INDICATE THE STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL LIFT WILL STAY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALSO EXPECT THE H85 FLOW WILL TURN WESTERLY WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT LIMITING MOISTURE. THE NAM DISPLAYS SURFACE-BASED LI/S -2 TO -3 WEDNESDAY. THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE IS LOW BECAUSE OF THE WEAK INSTABILITY AND FORCING. THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE JUST LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS. USED THE WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BECAUSE WE SHOULD BE JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. MIXING BEHIND THE FRONT SUPPORTS THE WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL FEATURE A COOLING TREND TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND POSSIBLY OUR FIRST WIDESPREAD FROST OF THE FALL SEASON SATURDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD. DRYING IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT SHOULD OCCUR THURSDAY. THE MODELS SHOW A REINFORCING COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THIS FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE ORIGINATING IN CENTRAL CANADA WILL DOMINATE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAVE LOWS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT. FROST MAY OCCUR DURING THESE NIGHTS. && .AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... EARLY MORNING FOG AND STRATUS UNTIL AROUND 14Z. LATEST 11U-3.9U IR SHOWING LOW CLOUDS/FOG SPREADING FROM THE LOWCOUNTRY INTO THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE AN INCREASED FOG THREAT EARLY THIS MORNING. THINK ALL TAF SITES WILL BE AFFECTED...WITH LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT AGS AND OGB...AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AT CAE/CUB/DNL. AFTER MORNING FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUDINESS DISSIPATES...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN BY 14Z. . HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIP TO OUR EAST AND A SW WIND EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. FEW TO SCT CU POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. .EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE LATE TUE NT/EARLY WED MORNING. A FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE WED/WED NT PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS. && .CLIMATE... DAILY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE NOT ESTABLISHED MONDAY. DAILY RECORD HIGHS FOR TUESDAY 10/28 ARE: CAE...90/1984 AGS...89/1984 && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ016-022- 029-031-036>038-041. GA...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
234 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE FIRST WIDESPREAD FROST OF THE SEASON SO FAR MAY OCCUR THIS WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... THERE HAS BEEN AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE OFFSHORE HIGH. THIS MOISTURE PLUS NOCTURNAL COOLING WITH DRY AIR ALOFT HAS HELPED CAUSE DENSE FOG IN THE EASTERN MIDLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE HRRR DISPLAYS THE FOG SPREADING WESTWARD TO NEAR A COLUMBIA TO AUGUSTA LINE LATER THIS MORNING. WE HAVE POSTED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE EASTERN MIDLANDS. THE ADVISORY MAY BE EXPANDED WESTWARD LATER THIS MORNING. THE MOISTURE IS SHALLOW. HEATING AND MIXING SHOULD DISSIPATE THE FOG LATER THIS MORNING. THE HRRR SHOWS FOG DIMINISHING BETWEEN 1000 AM AND 1100 AM. IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH PLENTY OF AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. WE USED THE WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BASED ON RECENT VERIFICATION. EXPECT READINGS JUST SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN YESTERDAY BASED ON THE INCREASED MOISTURE AND WEAK H85 COLD ADVECTION. THE DRY WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH THE RIDGING REMAINING DOMINATE. NOCTURNAL COOLING AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY SUPPORT AREAS OF FOG AGAIN BUT THE FOG MAY BE LIMITED BY AN INCREASE IN BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. IT MAY BE MORE STRATUS THAN FOG BECAUSE OF THIS WIND. LEANED TOWARD THE MORE CONSISTENT MAV MOS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST TONIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... THE NAM AND GFS DISPLAY THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WEDNESDAY. THE NAM AND GFS MOS HAVE CHANCE POPS AND THIS APPEARS REASONABLE. SATELLITE TRENDS AND THE MODELS INDICATE THE STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL LIFT WILL STAY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALSO EXPECT THE H85 FLOW WILL TURN WESTERLY WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT LIMITING MOISTURE. THE NAM DISPLAYS SURFACE-BASED LI/S -2 TO -3 WEDNESDAY. THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE IS LOW BECAUSE OF THE WEAK INSTABILITY AND FORCING. THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE JUST LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS. USED THE WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BECAUSE WE SHOULD BE JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. MIXING BEHIND THE FRONT SUPPORTS THE WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL FEATURE A COOLING TREND TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND POSSIBLY OUR FIRST WIDESPREAD FROST OF THE FALL SEASON SATURDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD. DRYING IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT SHOULD OCCUR THURSDAY. THE MODELS SHOW A REINFORCING COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THIS FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE ORIGINATING IN CENTRAL CANADA WILL DOMINATE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAVE LOWS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT. FROST MAY OCCUR DURING THESE NIGHTS. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG AND STRATUS EXPECTED. LATEST 11U-3.9U IR SHOWING LOW CLOUDS/FOG SPREADING FROM THE LOWCOUNTRY INTO THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. AFTER MORNING FOG OR LOW CLOUDINESS DISSIPATES...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIP TO OUR EAST AND A SW WIND EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. FEW TO SCT CU POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. .EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE LATE TUE NT/EARLY WED MORNING. A FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE WED/WED NT PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS. && .CLIMATE... DAILY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE NOT ESTABLISHED MONDAY. DAILY RECORD HIGHS FOR TUESDAY 10/28 ARE: CAE...90/1984 AGS...89/1984 && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ016-022- 029-031-036>038-041. GA...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
1250 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 1250 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014 A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TO THE AREA THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR FUNNELING BACK IN THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL GENERALLY HOLD IN THE 60S...WITH LOWS TONIGHT FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE LOW 40S. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL FEATURE DRY CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S EACH DAY. && .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 714 PM EDT MON OCT 27 2014 SUBTLE BAND OF ENHANCED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS CURRENTLY TOUCHING OFF A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE HELP OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES. LOWER LEVELS ARE STILL RELATIVELY DRY AND QPF AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN LIGHT BUT DID EXPAND AND PUSH UP THE TIMING OF POPS FOR THE EARLY OVERNIGHT PERIOD IN LIGHT OF LATEST RADAR IMAGERY AND CG LIGHTNING REPORTS. STILL EXPECT PRECIP TO EXPAND IN OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES LATER TONIGHT AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES SO NO MAJOR CHANGES AFTER 06Z...AN IDEA SUPPORTED BY LATEST HRRR AND RAP GUIDANCE. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 309 PM EDT MON OCT 27 2014 REASONABLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT FOR TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND PCPN CHANCES. WATER VAPOR THIS AFTERNOON CLEARLY SHOWS PARENT LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MS VALLEY REGION STREAMING NORTHEAST TOWARD OUR AREA. MAIN SHORT WAVE RIDING AROUND BASE OF UPPER LOW AND SHOULD MOVE THROUGH HERE LATER TONIGHT. INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION THROUGH THE EVENING WITH INITIAL WEAK LEAD SHORT WAVE AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET TO 50 KNOTS MAY AID IN A FEW SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA EARLY THIS EVENING. HIRES GUIDANCE ALL SHOWING THIS DEVELOPMENT WHILE AFTERNOON RADAR MOSAIC INDEED SHOWS SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ALREADY BEGINNING OVER EASTERN MO INTO WESTERN IL. WILL ACCOUNT FOR THIS WITH A LOW TO MODERATE POP FROM 00Z THROUGH 06Z THEN RAMPING UP POPS AFTER 06Z...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN AREAS AS MAIN SHORT WAVE APPROACHES. EXPECT BURGEONING AREA OF PCPN UPSTREAM THIS EVENING WITH BEST FORCING AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE WHICH SHOULD THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE GIVEN MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS BUT NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER. COULD SEE A FEW ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH STRONGEST UPDRAFTS GIVEN LOW LEVEL JET. SPEED OF SYSTEM AND DISTANCE CURRENTLY BETWEEN PARENT LOW AND MOISTURE FEED SUPPORT STRONG DRY SLOT MOVING IN TUESDAY QUICKLY ENDING PCPN FROM WEST TO EAST. MODEL DEPICTIONS SHOW STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING WITH SKY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY. A BIT CONCERNED ABOUT STRATOCUMULUS FILLING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION ALOFT BUT NOT READY TO GO AGAINST SUBSIDENCE AND PRIOR TRENDS AT THIS TIME. LOWS TONIGHT LIKELY TO REMAIN IN THE 60S MOST AREAS WITH CLOUD COVER AND WINDS. TEMPS NOT EXPECTED TO DO MUCH ON TUESDAY WITH MORNING COLD FRONT PASSAGE. COLDER AIR INITIALLY SLOW TO INFILTRATE...LIKELY BEING OFFSET BY CLEARING AND DIURNAL SUN IN EARLY AFTERNOON. SHOULD SEE TEMPS FALL MORE RAPIDLY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS SUN BEGINS TO SET AND COLD WEDGE DEEPENS OVER THE AREA...ESPECIALLY IF MORE CLOUD COVER DEVELOPS. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S EXPECTED SOMEWHERE IN THE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. && .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 309 PM EDT MON OCT 27 2014 PERIOD WILL START ON THE QUIET SIDE WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW HOLDS ACROSS THE REGION. MODEST WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL TRY TO NOSE IN THURS INTO THURS NIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG PIECE OF ENERGY WHICH WILL BREAK OFF FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN CANADA. FOLLOWING THE FAR SUPERIOR ECMWF OF THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS IN THESE MORE ENERGIZED PATTERN A BRIEF BUT POTENT SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS BOTH WITH PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT AND IN ITS WAKE WITH FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. AT THIS POINT...BULK OF THE COLDEST AIR WILL BYPASS THE FORECAST AREA BUT THAT BEING SAID 850 MB TEMPS WILL STILL DROP INTO THE -6 TO -8 C RANGE AT 850 MB. ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE. WITH THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR COMING IN AND 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES DROPPING BELOW 1300 M...THE CONCERN IS RAISED FOR A BIT OF WET SNOW BEING MIXED IN FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS SHOW BELOW FREEZING TEMPS THROUGH 925 MB...BUT SFC TEMPS SUGGEST READINGS AROUND 40. A MENTION OF SNOW MAY NOT HURT IN FAR NE AREAS BUT HOLDING OFF FOR NOW WITH BEST TIME FRAME OCCURRING AS BEST PRECIP CHANCES ARE DEPARTING. AS MENTIONED...COLD AIR WILL BE SHORT AS DEEP UPPER LOW PIVOTS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH A CONTINUED BUT MORE RELAXED NW FLOW IN TERMS OF COLD AIR ALOFT ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO BEGIN TO MODERATE BACK TOWARDS NORMAL BY MONDAY AS WARM FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION. ECMWF SUGGESTS SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ON THE NOSE OF INCREASING THETA E BUT WITH AMOUNT OF DRY AIR STILL IN PLACE WILL BE SOMEWHAT CONSERVATIVE AND KEEP TONED DOWN ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN AREAS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1250 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014 WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL SPREAD INTO KSBN AFTER 08-09Z AND KFWA BY 10-11Z ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS/VIS REMAINS POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE/RAIN...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR. MAINTAINED VCTS GIVEN MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. A QUICK IMPROVEMENT TO DRY/VFR IS EXPECTED MID-LATE MORNING AT KSBN AND EARLY AFTERNOON AT KFWA AS SYSTEM DRY SLOT OVERSPREADS THE REGION. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. MI...NONE. OH...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ043-046. && $$ UPDATE...AGD SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL SHORT TERM...LASHLEY LONG TERM...FISHER AVIATION...STEINWEDEL VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
318 AM CDT Tue Oct 28 2014 .SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight) Issued at 228 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014 Recent water vapor satellite imagery depicts a strong upper wave rotating through the main upper trough across northern Kansas. A few bands of mainly weak radar returns have passed through much of the local area in recent hours via rather strong upper level frontogenesis, but quite dry low levels limiting this to very light amounts (if any) reaching the ground. NAM and RAP indicate both forcing and moisture aloft diminishing through sunrise and these processes seem to be underway per latest IR and radar trends. Surface high pressure was building into the central High Plains with temps there around the freezing mark under mainly clear skies and light winds. It appears radar-produced low-level winds are being impacted by bird migration with speeds likely 10-20kt too high. Cold air advection becomes rather modest today, but much cooler air than recent days will keep highs in the lower to mid 60s in decent mixing. There should be a second round of high cloud in the morning to early afternoon, but the late afternoon and nighttime hours should be clear as the surface high comes into the Central Plains. Expect some modification of the upstream airmass today, where local temps have been well above normal for several days. Lows will be kept above freezing, with slightly lower values likely in protected areas. Have boosted frost wording but rather dry airmass and the very warm ground may keep widespread frost in check. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 228 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014 A cool start expected for Wednesday with morning frost possible across much of the forecast area. Temperatures still should make it to lower to middle 60s as southerly winds slowly move into the area from the west on the back side of the surface high. Some amplified mixing and southerly flow comes through with the clipper along and just to our north early Thursday, bringing mixed overnight low temperatures in the 40s. Despite cooler air moving driving southward into the northern and central plains for Thursday, our area is on the leading edge of the colder air and should mix to another day in the 60s before the colder temperatures make it southward. Again incoming high pressure and northerly winds through the night Thursday night into Friday look to keep lows from tanking too far, but do have lows in the 30s north to near 40 south. Sunshine should help get temperatures into the 50s for Friday afternoon. The surface high moves into the upper Midwest late Friday into early Saturday, and keeps push of colder air over eastern Kansas with lows forecast in the 30s. Another quick return of an upper ridge and southerly surface winds should bring highs back into the 50s for Saturday. How the next round of upper trofs moves out of the Rockies for Sunday into Monday varies within the extended models. Could see some warm air advection showers early Sunday but chances too low for mention this early. Both EC and GFS suggest better chances for rain come later Sunday into Monday and will keep grids as such, but smaller scale and progressive nature of the waves will likely change timing and probabilities as forecast draws closer. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Tuesday Night) Issued at 1120 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014 VFR prevails as northwesterly winds back to the west and weaken through 17Z. BKN cloud cover gradually exits east as influence from surface high pressure spreads eastward. Another passing upper wave increase westerly winds to near 10 kts during the afternoon with SCT high clouds in place. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...65 LONG TERM...67 AVIATION...Bowen
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1047 PM MDT MON OCT 27 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1047 PM MDT MON OCT 27 2014 UPDATE TO ZONE FORECAST TO REMOVE ANY MENTION OF SPRINKLES OVER SOUTHERN ZONES...AND TO ADJUST TEMPS BASED ON LATEST HOURLIES. CLOUD COVER FINALLY GIVING WAY TO CLEAR SKIES OVER THE AREA...WHICH IS ALLOWING TEMPS TO DROP BY SEVERAL DEGREES IN MANY LOCALES. HAVE OPTED NOT TO PUT ANY FURTHER AREAS IN FREEZE WARNING OVERNIGHT OTHER THAN CURRENT COLORADO ZONES. TEMPS ARE DROPPING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S...BUT WITH WESTERLY FLOW STILL OVER AREA NW KANSAS ZONES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE HARD FREEZE NUMBERS. REST OF FORECAST IS ON TRACK. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 252 PM MDT MON OCT 27 2014 UPPER FLOW WILL BE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SUBSIDENCE WILL PRODUCE DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FA THROUGH TUESDAY. POPS FOR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WILL BE NIL. RADAR RETURNS ACROSS THE FA TODAY HAVE BEEN VERY LIGHT WITH METARS REPORTING HIGH CLOUD BASES AND NO PRECIPITATION. THE HRRR SHOWS A BAND OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER AN AREA IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES THIS EVENING SO WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SPRINKLES THERE. THIS IS AN AREA WHERE THERE IS FRONTOGENESIS BUT MOISTURE IS LIMITED. THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE IF THERE WILL BE A HARD FREEZE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL DECREASE AND BECOME LIGHT FROM THE WEST ALONG WITH CLEARING. MOST OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE GIVES LOW TEMPERATURES AROUND 30 IN EASTERN COLORADO WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REST OF THE FA. THERE IS A LEAST ONE GUIDANCE THAT SHOWS TEMPERATURES AROUND 29 DEGREES IN EASTERN COLORADO AND WITH THE MET SHOWING 21 DEGREES FOR LIC, CANNOT RULE OUT A HARD FREEZE IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN COLORADO ZONES. PLAN TO UPGRADE THE FREEZE WATCH TO A WARNING IN EASTERN COLORADO AND THEN GO WITH A FROST ADVISORY ACROSS THE REST OF THE FA. SEE UPDATED HIGHLIGHTS BELOW. MAX TEMPERATURES TUESDAY SHOULD WARM TO THE LOWER 60S. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 252 PM MDT MON OCT 27 2014 FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...QUIET WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE WEEK BEFORE THE NEXT WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. MAIN CONCERNS AS IT STANDS RIGHT NOW IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS ON SATURDAY. BEGINNING WITH TUESDAY NIGHT...COLD LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN. FOR THIS NIGHT...MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE FROST ONCE AGAIN BUT LOCATIONS AROUND MCCOOK...OBERLIN AND NORTON MAY APPROACH FREEZE WARNING CRITERIA...28 DEGREES OR LESS. WITH THE CURRENT FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES OUT...WILL NOT ISSUE ADDITIONAL HAZARD HEADLINES BUT THEY MAY BE NEEDED FROM TONIGHTS SHIFT OR TOMORROWS DAY SHIFT. FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRANSLATES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...LEAVING THE REGION PRECIPITATION- FREE. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES OVER THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES INTO THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY...FORCING A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH. THIS WILL LEAD TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY. WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S BEFORE COOLING OFF THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOW DEWPOINTS SHOULD REMAIN FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM MCCOOK NEBRASKA TO TRIBUNE KANSAS...RESULTING IN RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE 15-20 PERCENT RANGE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS ARE FORECAST SO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS. THE ONLY QUESTION THAT REMAINS IS HOW ACTIVE WILL WE BE? MODELS ARE INDICATING A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND EJECTING OVER THE PLAINS BUT DISAGREE ON TIMING/MOVEMENT. WE ARE GETTING INTO THE SEASON WHERE THESE TYPES OF TROUGHS NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER DEVELOPMENT. THE CANADIAN MODEL DEVELOPS A STRONG MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE SATURDAY OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA BEFORE HEADING INTO NORTH DAKOTA. THE GFS INDICATES A SECOND...STRONGER LOBE OF ENERGY MOVING ACROSS OUR REGION WITH POTENTIAL FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION ON THE BACK SIDE. THESE TWO SOLUTIONS RAISE THE ALERT FLAG ON A POTENTIAL SECOND SNOW OF THE YEAR. GLANCING AT THE TEMPERATURES...IT APPEARS TOO WARM FOR SNOW AT THIS TIME. THE EUROPEAN MODEL INDICATES A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS WELL...BUT WELL TO THE NORTH... BEGINNING IN COLORADO/WYOMING BEFORE MOVING NORTH TOWARDS CANADA. NEEDLESS TO SAY...THIS SYSTEM NEEDS TO BE MONITORED BUT FORECAST GUIDANCE VARIANCE IS TOO GREAT TO MAKE ANY DEFINITIVE PREDICTIONS ON WHETHER A LARGER SYSTEM IMPACTS THE TRI-STATE AREA. ONE THING ALL GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS SATURDAY. WITH A DEEP LEE TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT...A RESULTANT STRENGTHENING OF THE WIND FIELD IS GUARANTEED. THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE WINDS AND SHOW POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTS...POSSIBLY 45-55 MPH. WIND FIELDS AT 1 KM AND 700 MB INDICATE THERE COULD BE SOME GUSTS EVEN STRONGER BUT WAS NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PLACE MENTION OF THIS IN PRODUCTS YET. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1047 PM MDT MON OCT 27 2014 VFR CONDITIONS FOR BOTH TAF SITES. SKC BEFORE 13Z-14Z TUESDAY AND AFT 00Z WEDNESDAY...OTHERWISE SCT100-150. WINDS WNW 5-10KTS BECOMING WSW AROUND 5 KTS BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM MDT /11 AM CDT/ TUESDAY FOR KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042. CO...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM MDT TUESDAY FOR COZ090>092. NE...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM MDT /11 AM CDT/ TUESDAY FOR NEZ079>081. && $$ UPDATE...JN SHORT TERM...FS LONG TERM...RRH AVIATION...JN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
355 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014 AT 330 AM...RAIN CONTINUED TO PUSH NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD REGION BUT THE OVERALL TREND HAS BEEN TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. MUCH OF THE REGION WAS NOW IN A DRY SLOT WRAPPING INTO THE DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...WHICH IS CURRENTLY STILL IN TRANSITION FROM HAVING THE TWO UPPER LEVEL LOWS PHASE INTO ONE. RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS THE DAY WEARS ON...STARTING IN NORTH CENTRAL MN AND THEN SPREADING SOUTH AND EASTWARD THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE CWA. THE 4 KM NMM WRF SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY AS WELL AS THE HRRR ALL SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO. WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TODAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT A POSSIBLE MIX IN THE FAR NORTH FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA INTO TONIGHT. NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION BUT COULD SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION ON GRASSY AREAS NORTH. PRECIPITATION SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE TONIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER DEVELOPING ON WEDNESDAY BUT ALSO THINK THE LOW CLOUDS WILL BE FAIRLY PERSISTENT AND WIDESPREAD. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014 A SUBTLE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND TUESDAY EVENING...WHILE A SHORTWAVE AND LOW WILL PASS JUST TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE NORTHLAND. THIS SHORTWAVE AND TROUGH COULD BRING LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE FAR SW FORECAST AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY WITH A LARGE SURFACE HIGH FOLLOWING IN ITS WAKE. THE COOL NORTHERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN CLOUDY WEATHER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING WITH CHANCES OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS NEAR THE GOGEBIC RANGE COULD RESULT IN UP TO A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOWFALL. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHLAND FRIDAY. HALLOWEEN LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE ONE OF THE COLDEST DAYS THIS FALL SO FAR...BUT IT SHOULD BE SUNNY WITH LIGHT WINDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S OVER THE NORTH TO NEAR 40 DEGREES OVER THE SOUTH. THERE WILL BE A WARMING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND AS SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING SURFACE HIGH AND A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE WESTERN UNITED STATES SHIFTS IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. THERE ARE LOW CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1221 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014 LOW PRESSURE CONTINUED TO CAUSE AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND AND THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE LOW LIFTS TOWARD EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z TUESDAY. IFR/MVFR CEILINGS WERE BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS LATE THIS EVENING AND WE EXPECT THOSE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD WHERE CONDITIONS IMPROVE...BUT AS THE WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS STRENGTHEN...MORE MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL OCCUR. WE EXPECT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TAF SITES TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOVING IN TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN OR ALL SNOW OCCUR OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA LATER TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY EVENING. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 44 33 41 33 / 70 60 10 10 INL 41 30 38 30 / 70 70 10 10 BRD 44 33 44 33 / 40 20 0 10 HYR 48 35 45 32 / 60 50 10 10 ASX 49 37 44 33 / 70 60 10 10 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...NONE. WI...NONE. LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ121-145>148. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ143-144. && $$ SHORT TERM...DAP LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI AVIATION...MELDE/GROCHOCINSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS WILMINGTON NC
444 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS INTO EARLY THURSDAY...ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. A SECOND AND STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING THE FIRST TRULY COLD AIR OF THE SEASON FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE ILM CWA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE COASTAL COUNTIES FROM CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD...REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 9 AM. LATEST SFC OBS TRENDS LATEST IR 11-3.9 MICRON CHANNEL SATELLITE IMAGERY TRENDS...AND THE LATEST HRRR MODEL PROJECTIONS...ALL INDICATE THE CURRENT DENSE FOG ACROSS THE FA CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND SHOULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD PRIOR TO DAYBREAK TUESDAY. THE DENSE FOG IS QUITE SHALLOW IN THE VERTICAL AND SHOULD ALL DISSIPATE BY 1300Z. A FULL DAYS WORTH OF INSOLATION IS IN STORE FOR THE FA AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS PUSHES OFF THE CAROLINA COASTS TODAY. WITH 500MB HEIGHTS PROGGED IN THE 580S AND CORRESPONDING 1K-5H THICKNESSES IN THE 570S...WIDESPREAD 80S FOR HIGHS TODAY IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. A SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR BY MIDDAY WITH SOME INLAND PENETRATION THIS AFTN...THUS LIMITING THE 80 DEGREE HIGHS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL BE A DIFFERENT STORY WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT SW WINDS AND MIXING IN THE LOW LEVELS LIMITED...MAX TEMPS COULD APPROACH RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY. FLORENCE RECORD IS 86 SET IN 1991. NORTH MYRTLE BEACH RECORD IS 83 SET IN 1991...COULD BE REACHED IF THE SEA BREEZE IS DELAYED. WILMINGTON RECORD IS 87 SET IN 1984...WILL LIKELY FALL SHORT. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS PROGGED TO MOVE FURTHER EAST AND OFFSHORE FROM THE CAROLINA COASTS TONIGHT...ALLOWING AN INCREASING SW WINDS TO SET UP ALOFT. MODELS HINT AT A 25 TO 30 KT LOW LEVEL JET TO SET UP ACROSS THE FA AFTER MIDNIGHT. NAMBUFR HOURLY SOUNDINGS ILLUSTRATE THIS LOW LEVEL JET AND ALSO THE LIMITED MOISTURE FROM THE SFC UP TO THIS LOW LEVEL JET HEIGHT. AS A RESULT...SFC FOG IF ANY WILL BE PATCHY AND AT A MINIMUM. HOWEVER...A LOW STRATUS CLOUD DECK REMAINS POSSIBLE AND THUS WILL NOT GO COMPLETELY CLEAR FOR SKY CONDITIONS. WILL LIKELY SEE CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOP ALONG AND OVER THE GULF STREAM LATE TONIGHT...WITH ANY ISOLATED NOCTURNAL SHRA REMAINING OFFSHORE. FOR TONIGHT...KEPT MINS CLOSER TO THE HIGHER END OF THE AVBL MODEL MOS GUIDANCE...AND EVEN A FEW DEGREES HIER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST DUE TO ACTIVE ONSHORE SSW-SW WINDS HAVING CROSSED SSTS STILL IN THE 70S. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...ONE LAST WARM DAY WEDNESDAY BEFORE A MAJOR PATTERN SHIFT OCCURS ACROSS THE EAST. HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL ONCE AGAIN COMBINE WITH RAISED THICKNESSES BENEATH AN UPPER RIDGE TO DRIVE WARM ADVECTION AND CAUSE MAX TEMPS TO SOAR INTO THE 80S. RECORD HIGHS WILL BE APPROACHED...ESPECIALLY INLAND SINCE COOLER OCEAN TEMPS WILL KEEP HIGHS AT THE COAST LOWER...BUT A WARM DAY EVERYWHERE IS EXPECTED. THIS WILL BE THE LAST OF THE WARMTH FOR SOME TIME HOWEVER. COLD FRONT RACES EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CROSSING OFFSHORE BY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS IS PUSHED BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND ALTHOUGH THE FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY AND PWATS RISE ONLY MARGINALLY...SOME QPF IS EXPECTED WITHIN SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT. WHILE THE RAIN IS NEEDED LOCALLY...THE FORECAST LOW QPF WILL BE ONLY MARGINALLY BENEFICIAL. STILL...THE FRONT SIGNALS A SIGNIFICANT AIR-MASS CHANGE AND TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL STALL JUST OFFSHORE AS A SECOND SHORTWAVE DIVES INTO THE DEVELOPING FULL-LATITUDE TROUGH...AND THIS WILL KEEP AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY...PRIMARILY NEAR THE COAST. IT WILL NOT BE A WASH OUT BY ANY STRETCH...BUT SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED. MINS WED NIGHT AHEAD OF/ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL BE IN THE MID 50S...FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL EXIST ON HALLOWEEN...BUT THE REAL STORY OF THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE FIRST TRULY COLD AIR OF THE SEASON. LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST WILL REASSERT ITSELF AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE ON FRIDAY IS QUITE POTENT...AND ALTHOUGH IT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA...ENOUGH FORCING ALOFT COMBINED WITH SOME SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT BENEATH IT MAY CREATE SOME SHOWERS FOR HALLOWEEN NIGHT. COLUMN BECOMES INCREASINGLY SATURATED FRIDAY EVE AND OVERNIGHT...BUT MOISTURE IS CONFINED BELOW 600MB AND PWATS STAY RATHER LOW. EXPECT MORE CLOUDS THAN SHOWERS...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT QPF FOR HALLOWEEN FESTIVITIES. MORE IMPRESSIVELY HOWEVER...WILL BE THE COLD ADVECTION THAT DEVELOPS BEHIND THIS FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THIS FEATURE BRINGS COLD AIR WITH IT...AS EVIDENCED BY 925MB TEMPS DROPPING 8-10C DURING EARLY SATURDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL DROP TEMPS TO NEAR JANUARY-LEVELS...WITH HIGHS AND LOWS EXPECTED TO BE 10+ DEGREES BELOW CLIMO...THE FIRST COLD OUTBREAK OF THE YEAR. LOWS SUNDAY MORNING ARE FORECAST TO BE THE COLDEST OF THE STRETCH...WHEN MANY LOCATIONS WITHIN THE CWA SHOULD DROP BELOW 40 DEGREES...ALTHOUGH MONDAY MORNING MAY BE EQUALLY COLD AS RADIATIONAL COOLING BECOMES MORE SIGNIFICANT THANKS TO LIGHTER WINDS. SOIL TEMPERATURES ARE STILL QUITE WARM...AND THE WINDS SUNDAY MORNING SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY FROST LOCALLY. HOWEVER...AS WINDS EASE AND SOIL TEMPS DROP WITH THE UPCOMING COLD AIR...FROST IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY MONDAY MORNING. HIGHS FOR THE WKND WILL STRUGGLE TO EVEN REACH 60. ON MONDAY THE CORE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE...SO WHILE TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE BEGINNING OF NOVEMBER...THEY WILL WARM SEVERAL DEGREES FROM WHAT IS ANTICIPATED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. && .AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 06Z...CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS HAVE ALLOWED PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE CWA...PRIMARILY AT THE SOUTHERN COASTAL TERMINALS. VSBYS ACROSS THE ILM SC TERMINALS HAVE DROPPED TO DENSE FOG AND EXPECT THAT TO REMAIN THE CASE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PRE-DAWN TUE HOURS. LOOKING AT DENSE FOG TO FINALLY OVERTAKE KLBT PRIOR TO DAYBREAK TUE...WITH KILM POSSIBLY TO REMAIN DENSE FOG FREE. LATEST HRRR MODEL ILLUSTRATES ALL TERMINALS TO EXPERIENCE VSBY AT OR BELOW 1/2 MILE EARLY THIS AM...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KILM. WILL FOLLOW THE HRRR OUTPUT THIS AM GIVEN ITS OVERALL PERFORMANCE WITH IDENTIFYING THE FOG DEVELOPMENT AND ITS PROGRESSION FROM LAST EVENING. THE FG/BR SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY BETWEEN 12Z AND 1330Z...WITH VFR PREVAILING AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. WITH THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING OFFSHORE...CALM WINDS EARLY AM WILL BECOME SW AROUND 5 KT. EXPECT THE DIURNALLY INDUCED SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP WITH WINDS BACKING TO SSE-SSW AOB 10 KT AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS FOR THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVENING. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. CHANCE OF EARLY MORNING IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WED AM. SHOWERS/MVFR POSSIBLE LATE WED/EARLY THU AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE CAROLINAS. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 400 AM TUESDAY...CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH TO PUSH FURTHER EAST AND OFFSHORE FROM THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE SFC PRESSURE PATTERN AND RELAXED GRADIENT WILL YIELD A SSW-SW WIND AROUND 10 KT TODAY...AND MAINLY SW INCREASING TO 10-15 KT WITH FEW WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT TONIGHT. FOR THE NEAR SHORE WATERS...THE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTN WILL BACK WINDS TO SSE-S AT 10 TO POSSIBLY 15 KT THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVENING. THE OVERALL INCREASING SYNOPTIC WINDS AND GUSTS TONIGHT WILL BE THE RESULT OF A LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY JET AND A SLIGHTLY TIGHTENED SFC PG. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE 1 TO 2 FT TODAY...AND BUILD TO NEAR OR AROUND 3 FT TONIGHT. THIS IS IN LINE WITH WAVEWATCH3 AND LOCALLY PRODUCED SWAN NUMBERS. DOMINANT PERIODS WILL BE 8 TO 9 SECONDS TODAY WITH AN EASTERLY GROUND SWELL PREVAILING...AND DROP TO 3 TO 5 SECONDS NEARSHORE THIS AFTN...AND FOR ALL WATERS TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING SW WIND DRIVEN WAVES. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE DRIVES RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SW WINDS OF 10-15 KTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS CAUSING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW...AND THEN NORTH...BY THURSDAY MORNING WITH SPEEDS STILL AT 10-15 KTS. THESE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST ON THURSDAY...BUT INCREASE SLOWLY LATE IN THE PERIOD. SEAS WED/THU WILL BE PRIMARILY WIND-WAVE DRIVEN...WITH A SW WIND CHOP PRODUCING 2-3 FT SEAS WEDNESDAY. AFTER A BRIEF DECREASE IN WAVE AMPLITUDES BEHIND THE FRONT...A NORTHERLY WIND WAVE WILL AMPLIFY DURING THURSDAY...CAUSING SEAS TO RISE TO 2-4 FT LATE. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...N/NW WINDS FRIDAY WILL BE CONSISTENTLY 10-15 KTS...AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN FROM THE NORTH AND A COLD FRONT STALLS OFFSHORE. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT...AND THIS WILL PRODUCE VERY GUSTY WINDS BEHIND IT...AND N/NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB ABOVE 25 KTS MUCH OF SATURDAY...AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS LIKELY. SEAS FRIDAY WILL BE 2-4 FT...WITH THE HIGHEST WAVES CONFINED NEAR THE 20NM BOUNDARY...BUT WILL RISE SIGNIFICANTLY ON SATURDAY TO 4-6 FT. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ017-023- 024-032-033-039-053>056. NC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ087-096- 099-109-110. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDW NEAR TERM...DCH SHORT TERM...JDW LONG TERM...JDW AVIATION...DCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
427 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS INTO EARLY THURSDAY...ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. A SECOND AND STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING THE FIRST TRULY COLD AIR OF THE SEASON FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE ILM CWA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE COASTAL COUNTIES FROM CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD...REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 9 AM. LATEST SFC OBS TRENDS ...LATEST IR 11-3.9 MICRON CHANNEL SATELLITE IMAGERY TRENDS...AND THE LATEST HRRR MODEL PROJECTIONS...ALL INDICATE THE CURRENT DENSE FOG ACROSS THE FA CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND SHOULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD PRIOR TO DAYBREAK TUESDAY. THE DENSE FOG IS QUITE SHALLOW IN THE VERTICAL AND SHOULD ALL DISSIPATE BY 1300Z. A FULL DAYS WORTH OF INSOLATION IS IN STORE FOR THE FA AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS PUSHES OFF THE CAROLINA COASTS TODAY. WITH 500MB HEIGHTS PROGGED IN THE 580S AND CORRESPONDING 1K-5H THICKNESSES IN THE 570S...WIDESPREAD 80S FOR HIGHS TODAY IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. A SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR BY MIDDAY WITH SOME INLAND PENETRATION THIS AFTN...THUS LIMITING THE 80 DEGREE HIGHS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL BE A DIFFERENT STORY WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT SW WINDS AND MIXING IN THE LOW LEVELS LIMITED...MAX TEMPS COULD APPROACH RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY. FLORENCE RECORD IS 86 SET IN 1991. NORTH MYRTLE BEACH RECORD IS 83 SET IN 1991...COULD BE REACHED IF THE SEA BREEZE IS DELAYED. WILMINGTON RECORD IS 87 SET IN 1984...WILL LIKELY FALL SHORT. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS TO MOVE FURTHER EAST AND OFFSHORE FROM THE CAROLINA COASTS...ALLOWING AN INCREASING SW WINDS TO SET UP ALOFT. MODELS HINT AT A 25 TO 30 KT LOW LEVEL JET TO SET UP ACROSS THE FA AFTER MIDNIGHT. NAMBUFR HOURLY SOUNDINGS ILLUSTRATE THIS LOW LEVEL JET AND ALSO THE LIMITED MOISTURE FROM THE SFC UP TO THIS LOW LEVEL JET HEIGHT. AS A RESULT...SFC FOG IF ANY WILL BE PATCHY AND AT A MINIMUM. HOWEVER...A LOW STRATUS CLOUD DECK REMAINS POSSIBLE AND THUS WILL NOT GO COMPLETELY CLEAR FOR SKY CONDITIONS. WILL LIKELY SEE CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOP ALONG AND OVER THE GULF STREAM LATE TONIGHT...WITH ANY ISOLATED NOCTURNAL SHRA REMAINING OFFSHORE. FOR TONIGHT...KEPT MINS CLOSER TO THE HIGHER END OF THE AVBL MODEL MOS GUIDANCE...AND EVEN A FEW DEGREES HIER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST DUE TO ACTIVE ONSHORE SSW-SW WINDS HAVING CROSSED SSTS STILL IN THE 70S. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...ONE LAST WARM DAY WEDNESDAY BEFORE A MAJOR PATTERN SHIFT OCCURS ACROSS THE EAST. HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL ONCE AGAIN COMBINE WITH RAISED THICKNESSES BENEATH AN UPPER RIDGE TO DRIVE WARM ADVECTION AND CAUSE MAX TEMPS TO SOAR INTO THE 80S. RECORD HIGHS WILL BE APPROACHED...ESPECIALLY INLAND SINCE COOLER OCEAN TEMPS WILL KEEP HIGHS AT THE COAST LOWER...BUT A WARM DAY EVERYWHERE IS EXPECTED. THIS WILL BE THE LAST OF THE WARMTH FOR SOME TIME HOWEVER. COLD FRONT RACES EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CROSSING OFFSHORE BY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS IS PUSHED BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND ALTHOUGH THE FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY AND PWATS RISE ONLY MARGINALLY...SOME QPF IS EXPECTED WITHIN SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT. WHILE THE RAIN IS NEEDED LOCALLY...THE FORECAST LOW QPF WILL BE ONLY MARGINALLY BENEFICIAL. STILL...THE FRONT SIGNALS A SIGNIFICANT AIR-MASS CHANGE AND TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL STALL JUST OFFSHORE AS A SECOND SHORTWAVE DIVES INTO THE DEVELOPING FULL-LATITUDE TROUGH...AND THIS WILL KEEP AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY...PRIMARILY NEAR THE COAST. IT WILL NOT BE A WASH OUT BY ANY STRETCH...BUT SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED. MINS WED NIGHT AHEAD OF/ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL BE IN THE MID 50S...FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL EXIST ON HALLOWEEN...BUT THE REAL STORY OF THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE FIRST TRULY COLD AIR OF THE SEASON. LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST WILL REASSERT ITSELF AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE ON FRIDAY IS QUITE POTENT...AND ALTHOUGH IT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA...ENOUGH FORCING ALOFT COMBINED WITH SOME SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT BENEATH IT MAY CREATE SOME SHOWERS FOR HALLOWEEN NIGHT. COLUMN BECOMES INCREASINGLY SATURATED FRIDAY EVE AND OVERNIGHT...BUT MOISTURE IS CONFINED BELOW 600MB AND PWATS STAY RATHER LOW. EXPECT MORE CLOUDS THAN SHOWERS...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT QPF FOR HALLOWEEN FESTIVITIES. MORE IMPRESSIVELY HOWEVER...WILL BE THE COLD ADVECTION THAT DEVELOPS BEHIND THIS FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THIS FEATURE BRINGS COLD AIR WITH IT...AS EVIDENCED BY 925MB TEMPS DROPPING 8-10C DURING EARLY SATURDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL DROP TEMPS TO NEAR JANUARY-LEVELS...WITH HIGHS AND LOWS EXPECTED TO BE 10+ DEGREES BELOW CLIMO...THE FIRST COLD OUTBREAK OF THE YEAR. LOWS SUNDAY MORNING ARE FORECAST TO BE THE COLDEST OF THE STRETCH...WHEN MANY LOCATIONS WITHIN THE CWA SHOULD DROP BELOW 40 DEGREES...ALTHOUGH MONDAY MORNING MAY BE EQUALLY COLD AS RADIATIONAL COOLING BECOMES MORE SIGNIFICANT THANKS TO LIGHTER WINDS. SOIL TEMPERATURES ARE STILL QUITE WARM...AND THE WINDS SUNDAY MORNING SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY FROST LOCALLY. HOWEVER...AS WINDS EASE AND SOIL TEMPS DROP WITH THE UPCOMING COLD AIR...FROST IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY MONDAY MORNING. HIGHS FOR THE WKND WILL STRUGGLE TO EVEN REACH 60. ON MONDAY THE CORE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE...SO WHILE TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE BEGINNING OF NOVEMBER...THEY WILL WARM SEVERAL DEGREES FROM WHAT IS ANTICIPATED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. && .AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 06Z...CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS HAVE ALLOWED PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE CWA...PRIMARILY AT THE SOUTHERN COASTAL TERMINALS. VSBYS ACROSS THE ILM SC TERMINALS HAVE DROPPED TO DENSE FOG AND EXPECT THAT TO REMAIN THE CASE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PRE-DAWN TUE HOURS. LOOKING AT DENSE FOG TO FINALLY OVERTAKE KLBT PRIOR TO DAYBREAK TUE...WITH KILM POSSIBLY TO REMAIN DENSE FOG FREE. LATEST HRRR MODEL ILLUSTRATES ALL TERMINALS TO EXPERIENCE VSBY AT OR BELOW 1/2 MILE EARLY THIS AM...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KILM. WILL FOLLOW THE HRRR OUTPUT THIS AM GIVEN ITS OVERALL PERFORMANCE WITH IDENTIFYING THE FOG DEVELOPMENT AND ITS PROGRESSION FROM LAST EVENING. THE FG/BR SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY BETWEEN 12Z AND 1330Z...WITH VFR PREVAILING AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. WITH THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING OFFSHORE...CALM WINDS EARLY AM WILL BECOME SW AROUND 5 KT. EXPECT THE DIURNALLY INDUCED SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP WITH WINDS BACKING TO SSE-SSW AOB 10 KT AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS FOR THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVENING. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. CHANCE OF EARLY MORNING IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WED AM. SHOWERS/MVFR POSSIBLE LATE WED/EARLY THU AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE CAROLINAS. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 10:45 PM MONDAY...LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE WITH SEAS OF UNDER 2 FT PREVAIL OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE THIS EVENING. EXPECT THESE BENIGN CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS: HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA IS MOVING OUT TO SEA THIS AFTERNOON. EASTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE HIGH THIS EVENING WILL COME AROUND TO THE SOUTH LATE...BUT WITH LITTLE INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS. THE STRONGEST WINDS OF THE NEXT 12 HOURS ARE PROBABLY OCCURRING NOW WITH THE SEABREEZE CIRCULATION ENHANCING THE SYNOPTIC FLOW. COMBINED SEAS ARE ONLY 1-2 FEET IN A COMBINATION OF A TINY WIND CHOP AND TWO SMALL 10 SECOND SWELL COMPONENTS. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE DRIVES RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SW WINDS OF 10-15 KTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS CAUSING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW...AND THEN NORTH...BY THURSDAY MORNING WITH SPEEDS STILL AT 10-15 KTS. THESE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST ON THURSDAY...BUT INCREASE SLOWLY LATE IN THE PERIOD. SEAS WED/THU WILL BE PRIMARILY WIND-WAVE DRIVEN...WITH A SW WIND CHOP PRODUCING 2-3 FT SEAS WEDNESDAY. AFTER A BRIEF DECREASE IN WAVE AMPLITUDES BEHIND THE FRONT...A NORTHERLY WIND WAVE WILL AMPLIFY DURING THURSDAY...CAUSING SEAS TO RISE TO 2-4 FT LATE. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...N/NW WINDS FRIDAY WILL BE CONSISTENTLY 10-15 KTS...AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN FROM THE NORTH AND A COLD FRONT STALLS OFFSHORE. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT...AND THIS WILL PRODUCE VERY GUSTY WINDS BEHIND IT...AND N/NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB ABOVE 25 KTS MUCH OF SATURDAY...AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS LIKELY. SEAS FRIDAY WILL BE 2-4 FT...WITH THE HIGHEST WAVES CONFINED NEAR THE 20NM BOUNDARY...BUT WILL RISE SIGNIFICANTLY ON SATURDAY TO 4-6 FT. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ017-023- 024-032-033-039-053>056. NC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ087-096- 099-109-110. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDW NEAR TERM...DCH SHORT TERM...JDW LONG TERM...JDW AVIATION...DCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
346 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS INTO EARLY THURSDAY...ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. A SECOND AND STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING THE FIRST TRULY COLD AIR OF THE SEASON FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 110 AM TUESDAY...ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE ILM CWA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE COASTAL COUNTIES FROM CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD. LATEST SFC OBS TRENDS...IR SATELLITE IMAGERY TRENDS PARTICULARLY THE 11-3.9 MICRON CHANNEL...AND THE LATEST HRRR MODEL VSBY PROJECTION...ALL INDICATE THE CURRENT PATCHY DENSE FOG ACROSS THE FA TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD DURING THE PRE-DAWN TUESDAY HOURS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.......................... AS OF 10:45 PM MONDAY...WHILE WE ARE STILL EXPECTING SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT...IT HAS BEEN SLOW TO FORM AND AT THIS POINT DO NOT EXPECT TO ISSUE ANY ADVISORIES FOR REDUCED VISIBILITIES. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS. OTHERWISE...STILL EXPECTING A COOL AND DRY OVERNIGHT PERIOD. FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWS: HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WILL STEADILY PROGRESS EASTWARD AND OFFSHORE TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD OCCUR ABOUT THE TIME THE SUN SETS. LIGHT WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS AND A DRY ATMOSPHERE SHOULD ALLOW A STRONG RADIATIONAL INVERSION TO DEVELOP. DESPITE DEWPOINTS PLUNGING INTO THE 30S ACROSS PORTIONS OF SE NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON...A SHALLOW LAYER OF FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE HAS HUNG OUT ACROSS COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN HERE AT 3 PM DEWPOINTS ARE AROUND 60 IN THE GEORGETOWN VICINITY...WITH MID TO UPPER 50S ALONG THE GRAND STRAND BEACHES. THESE HIGHER DEWPOINTS SHOULD ADVECT NORTHWESTWARD THIS EVENING IN THE VEERING FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING HIGH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS MOISTURE LAYER SHOULD ONLY BE ABOUT 500-700 FEET THICK ACROSS THE WILMINGTON AREA OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD INCREASE TO AROUND 1200-1500 FT DEPTH ACROSS FLORENCE AND THE PEE DEE REGION. THIS IS PROBABLY THICK ENOUGH TO DEVELOP FOG AND SOME LOW STRATUS INLAND LATE TONIGHT. USING THE NAM 975 MB RH GRID AS A GUIDE...I AM FORECASTING THE BEST CHANCES FOR FOG FROM GEORGETOWN AND MYRTLE BEACH NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS MARION AND FLORENCE INTO HARTSVILLE AND BENNETTSVILLE OVERNIGHT. DESPITE SIMILAR LOW TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS WILMINGTON AND BURGAW THE VERTICAL EXTENT OF MOISTURE HERE MAY BE INSUFFICIENT FOR MORE THAN SPOTTY AND SHALLOW GROUND FOG. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO LOW TEMPERATURE FORECASTS...STILL ANTICIPATED TO RANGE FROM 50-55...COOLEST FROM LAKE WACCAMAW TO BURGAW...AND WARMEST ALONG THE SC BEACHES. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...ONE LAST WARM DAY WEDNESDAY BEFORE A MAJOR PATTERN SHIFT OCCURS ACROSS THE EAST. HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL ONCE AGAIN COMBINE WITH RAISED THICKNESSES BENEATH AN UPPER RIDGE TO DRIVE WARM ADVECTION AND CAUSE MAX TEMPS TO SOAR INTO THE 80S. RECORD HIGHS WILL BE APPROACHED...ESPECIALLY INLAND SINCE COOLER OCEAN TEMPS WILL KEEP HIGHS AT THE COAST LOWER...BUT A WARM DAY EVERYWHERE IS EXPECTED. THIS WILL BE THE LAST OF THE WARMTH FOR SOME TIME HOWEVER. COLD FRONT RACES EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CROSSING OFFSHORE BY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS IS PUSHED BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND ALTHOUGH THE FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY AND PWATS RISE ONLY MARGINALLY...SOME QPF IS EXPECTED WITHIN SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT. WHILE THE RAIN IS NEEDED LOCALLY...THE FORECAST LOW QPF WILL BE ONLY MARGINALLY BENEFICIAL. STILL...THE FRONT SIGNALS A SIGNIFICANT AIR-MASS CHANGE AND TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL STALL JUST OFFSHORE AS A SECOND SHORTWAVE DIVES INTO THE DEVELOPING FULL-LATITUDE TROUGH...AND THIS WILL KEEP AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY...PRIMARILY NEAR THE COAST. IT WILL NOT BE A WASH OUT BY ANY STRETCH...BUT SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED. MINS WED NIGHT AHEAD OF/ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL BE IN THE MID 50S...FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL EXIST ON HALLOWEEN...BUT THE REAL STORY OF THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE FIRST TRULY COLD AIR OF THE SEASON. LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST WILL REASSERT ITSELF AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE ON FRIDAY IS QUITE POTENT...AND ALTHOUGH IT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA...ENOUGH FORCING ALOFT COMBINED WITH SOME SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT BENEATH IT MAY CREATE SOME SHOWERS FOR HALLOWEEN NIGHT. COLUMN BECOMES INCREASINGLY SATURATED FRIDAY EVE AND OVERNIGHT...BUT MOISTURE IS CONFINED BELOW 600MB AND PWATS STAY RATHER LOW. EXPECT MORE CLOUDS THAN SHOWERS...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT QPF FOR HALLOWEEN FESTIVITIES. MORE IMPRESSIVELY HOWEVER...WILL BE THE COLD ADVECTION THAT DEVELOPS BEHIND THIS FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THIS FEATURE BRINGS COLD AIR WITH IT...AS EVIDENCED BY 925MB TEMPS DROPPING 8-10C DURING EARLY SATURDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL DROP TEMPS TO NEAR JANUARY-LEVELS...WITH HIGHS AND LOWS EXPECTED TO BE 10+ DEGREES BELOW CLIMO...THE FIRST COLD OUTBREAK OF THE YEAR. LOWS SUNDAY MORNING ARE FORECAST TO BE THE COLDEST OF THE STRETCH...WHEN MANY LOCATIONS WITHIN THE CWA SHOULD DROP BELOW 40 DEGREES...ALTHOUGH MONDAY MORNING MAY BE EQUALLY COLD AS RADIATIONAL COOLING BECOMES MORE SIGNIFICANT THANKS TO LIGHTER WINDS. SOIL TEMPERATURES ARE STILL QUITE WARM...AND THE WINDS SUNDAY MORNING SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY FROST LOCALLY. HOWEVER...AS WINDS EASE AND SOIL TEMPS DROP WITH THE UPCOMING COLD AIR...FROST IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY MONDAY MORNING. HIGHS FOR THE WKND WILL STRUGGLE TO EVEN REACH 60. ON MONDAY THE CORE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE...SO WHILE TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE BEGINNING OF NOVEMBER...THEY WILL WARM SEVERAL DEGREES FROM WHAT IS ANTICIPATED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. && .AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 06Z...CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS HAVE ALLOWED PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE CWA...PRIMARILY AT THE SOUTHERN COASTAL TERMINALS. VSBYS ACROSS THE ILM SC TERMINALS HAVE DROPPED TO DENSE FOG AND EXPECT THAT TO REMAIN THE CASE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PRE-DAWN TUE HOURS. LOOKING AT DENSE FOG TO FINALLY OVERTAKE KLBT PRIOR TO DAYBREAK TUE...WITH KILM POSSIBLY TO REMAIN DENSE FOG FREE. LATEST HRRR MODEL ILLUSTRATES ALL TERMINALS TO EXPERIENCE VSBY AT OR BELOW 1/2 MILE EARLY THIS AM...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KILM. WILL FOLLOW THE HRRR OUTPUT THIS AM GIVEN ITS OVERALL PERFORMANCE WITH IDENTIFYING THE FOG DEVELOPMENT AND ITS PROGRESSION FROM LAST EVENING. THE FG/BR SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY BETWEEN 12Z AND 1330Z...WITH VFR PREVAILING AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. WITH THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING OFFSHORE...CALM WINDS EARLY AM WILL BECOME SW AROUND 5 KT. EXPECT THE DIURNALLY INDUCED SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP WITH WINDS BACKING TO SSE-SSW AOB 10 KT AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS FOR THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVENING. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. CHANCE OF EARLY MORNING IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WED AM. SHOWERS/MVFR POSSIBLE LATE WED/EARLY THU AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE CAROLINAS. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 10:45 PM MONDAY...LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE WITH SEAS OF UNDER 2 FT PREVAIL OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE THIS EVENING. EXPECT THESE BENIGN CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS: HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA IS MOVING OUT TO SEA THIS AFTERNOON. EASTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE HIGH THIS EVENING WILL COME AROUND TO THE SOUTH LATE...BUT WITH LITTLE INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS. THE STRONGEST WINDS OF THE NEXT 12 HOURS ARE PROBABLY OCCURRING NOW WITH THE SEABREEZE CIRCULATION ENHANCING THE SYNOPTIC FLOW. COMBINED SEAS ARE ONLY 1-2 FEET IN A COMBINATION OF A TINY WIND CHOP AND TWO SMALL 10 SECOND SWELL COMPONENTS. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE DRIVES RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SW WINDS OF 10-15 KTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS CAUSING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW...AND THEN NORTH...BY THURSDAY MORNING WITH SPEEDS STILL AT 10-15 KTS. THESE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST ON THURSDAY...BUT INCREASE SLOWLY LATE IN THE PERIOD. SEAS WED/THU WILL BE PRIMARILY WIND-WAVE DRIVEN...WITH A SW WIND CHOP PRODUCING 2-3 FT SEAS WEDNESDAY. AFTER A BRIEF DECREASE IN WAVE AMPLITUDES BEHIND THE FRONT...A NORTHERLY WIND WAVE WILL AMPLIFY DURING THURSDAY...CAUSING SEAS TO RISE TO 2-4 FT LATE. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...N/NW WINDS FRIDAY WILL BE CONSISTENTLY 10-15 KTS...AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN FROM THE NORTH AND A COLD FRONT STALLS OFFSHORE. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT...AND THIS WILL PRODUCE VERY GUSTY WINDS BEHIND IT...AND N/NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB ABOVE 25 KTS MUCH OF SATURDAY...AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS LIKELY. SEAS FRIDAY WILL BE 2-4 FT...WITH THE HIGHEST WAVES CONFINED NEAR THE 20NM BOUNDARY...BUT WILL RISE SIGNIFICANTLY ON SATURDAY TO 4-6 FT. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ017-023- 024-032-033-039-053>056. NC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ087-096- 099-109-110. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDW NEAR TERM...DCH SHORT TERM...JDW LONG TERM...JDW AVIATION...DCH MARINE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
340 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS INTO EARLY THURSDAY...ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. A SECOND AND STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING THE FIRST TRULY COLD AIR OF THE SEASON FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 110 AM TUESDAY...ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE ILM CWA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE COASTAL COUNTIES FROM CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD. LATEST SFC OBS TRENDS...IR SATELLITE IMAGERY TRENDS PARTICULARLY THE 11-3.9 MICRON CHANNEL...AND THE LATEST HRRR MODEL VSBY PROJECTION...ALL INDICATE THE CURRENT PATCHY DENSE FOG ACROSS THE FA TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD DURING THE PRE-DAWN TUESDAY HOURS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.................................. AS OF 10:45 PM MONDAY...WHILE WE ARE STILL EXPECTING SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT...IT HAS BEEN SLOW TO FORM AND AT THIS POINT DO NOT EXPECT TO ISSUE ANY ADVISORIES FOR REDUCED VISIBILITIES. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS. OTHERWISE...STILL EXPECTING A COOL AND DRY OVERNIGHT PERIOD. FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWS: HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WILL STEADILY PROGRESS EASTWARD AND OFFSHORE TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD OCCUR ABOUT THE TIME THE SUN SETS. LIGHT WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS AND A DRY ATMOSPHERE SHOULD ALLOW A STRONG RADIATIONAL INVERSION TO DEVELOP. DESPITE DEWPOINTS PLUNGING INTO THE 30S ACROSS PORTIONS OF SE NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON...A SHALLOW LAYER OF FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE HAS HUNG OUT ACROSS COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN HERE AT 3 PM DEWPOINTS ARE AROUND 60 IN THE GEORGETOWN VICINITY...WITH MID TO UPPER 50S ALONG THE GRAND STRAND BEACHES. THESE HIGHER DEWPOINTS SHOULD ADVECT NORTHWESTWARD THIS EVENING IN THE VEERING FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING HIGH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS MOISTURE LAYER SHOULD ONLY BE ABOUT 500-700 FEET THICK ACROSS THE WILMINGTON AREA OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD INCREASE TO AROUND 1200-1500 FT DEPTH ACROSS FLORENCE AND THE PEE DEE REGION. THIS IS PROBABLY THICK ENOUGH TO DEVELOP FOG AND SOME LOW STRATUS INLAND LATE TONIGHT. USING THE NAM 975 MB RH GRID AS A GUIDE...I AM FORECASTING THE BEST CHANCES FOR FOG FROM GEORGETOWN AND MYRTLE BEACH NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS MARION AND FLORENCE INTO HARTSVILLE AND BENNETTSVILLE OVERNIGHT. DESPITE SIMILAR LOW TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS WILMINGTON AND BURGAW THE VERTICAL EXTENT OF MOISTURE HERE MAY BE INSUFFICIENT FOR MORE THAN SPOTTY AND SHALLOW GROUND FOG. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO LOW TEMPERATURE FORECASTS...STILL ANTICIPATED TO RANGE FROM 50-55...COOLEST FROM LAKE WACCAMAW TO BURGAW...AND WARMEST ALONG THE SC BEACHES. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...ONE LAST WARM DAY WEDNESDAY BEFORE A MAJOR PATTERN SHIFT OCCURS ACROSS THE EAST. HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL ONCE AGAIN COMBINE WITH RAISED THICKNESSES BENEATH AN UPPER RIDGE TO DRIVE WARM ADVECTION AND CAUSE MAX TEMPS TO SOAR INTO THE 80S. RECORD HIGHS WILL BE APPROACHED...ESPECIALLY INLAND SINCE COOLER OCEAN TEMPS WILL KEEP HIGHS AT THE COAST LOWER...BUT A WARM DAY EVERYWHERE IS EXPECTED. THIS WILL BE THE LAST OF THE WARMTH FOR SOME TIME HOWEVER. COLD FRONT RACES EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CROSSING OFFSHORE BY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS IS PUSHED BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND ALTHOUGH THE FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY AND PWATS RISE ONLY MARGINALLY...SOME QPF IS EXPECTED WITHIN SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT. WHILE THE RAIN IS NEEDED LOCALLY...THE FORECAST LOW QPF WILL BE ONLY MARGINALLY BENEFICIAL. STILL...THE FRONT SIGNALS A SIGNIFICANT AIR-MASS CHANGE AND TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL STALL JUST OFFSHORE AS A SECOND SHORTWAVE DIVES INTO THE DEVELOPING FULL-LATITUDE TROUGH...AND THIS WILL KEEP AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY...PRIMARILY NEAR THE COAST. IT WILL NOT BE A WASH OUT BY ANY STRETCH...BUT SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED. MINS WED NIGHT AHEAD OF/ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL BE IN THE MID 50S...FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL EXIST ON HALLOWEEN...BUT THE REAL STORY OF THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE FIRST TRULY COLD AIR OF THE SEASON. LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST WILL REASSERT ITSELF AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE ON FRIDAY IS QUITE POTENT...AND ALTHOUGH IT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA...ENOUGH FORCING ALOFT COMBINED WITH SOME SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT BENEATH IT MAY CREATE SOME SHOWERS FOR HALLOWEEN NIGHT. COLUMN BECOMES INCREASINGLY SATURATED FRIDAY EVE AND OVERNIGHT...BUT MOISTURE IS CONFINED BELOW 600MB AND PWATS STAY RATHER LOW. EXPECT MORE CLOUDS THAN SHOWERS...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT QPF FOR HALLOWEEN FESTIVITIES. MORE IMPRESSIVELY HOWEVER...WILL BE THE COLD ADVECTION THAT DEVELOPS BEHIND THIS FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THIS FEATURE BRINGS COLD AIR WITH IT...AS EVIDENCED BY 925MB TEMPS DROPPING 8-10C DURING EARLY SATURDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL DROP TEMPS TO NEAR JANUARY-LEVELS...WITH HIGHS AND LOWS EXPECTED TO BE 10+ DEGREES BELOW CLIMO...THE FIRST COLD OUTBREAK OF THE YEAR. LOWS SUNDAY MORNING ARE FORECAST TO BE THE COLDEST OF THE STRETCH...WHEN MANY LOCATIONS WITHIN THE CWA SHOULD DROP BELOW 40 DEGREES. HIGHS FOR THE WKND WILL STRUGGLE TO EVEN REACH 60. ON MONDAY THE CORE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE...SO WHILE TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE BEGINNING OF NOVEMBER...THEY WILL WARM SEVERAL DEGREES FROM WHAT IS ANTICIPATED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. && .AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 06Z...CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS HAVE ALLOWED PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE CWA...PRIMARILY AT THE SOUTHERN COASTAL TERMINALS. VSBYS ACROSS THE ILM SC TERMINALS HAVE DROPPED TO DENSE FOG AND EXPECT THAT TO REMAIN THE CASE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PRE-DAWN TUE HOURS. LOOKING AT DENSE FOG TO FINALLY OVERTAKE KLBT PRIOR TO DAYBREAK TUE...WITH KILM POSSIBLY TO REMAIN DENSE FOG FREE. LATEST HRRR MODEL ILLUSTRATES ALL TERMINALS TO EXPERIENCE VSBY AT OR BELOW 1/2 MILE EARLY THIS AM...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KILM. WILL FOLLOW THE HRRR OUTPUT THIS AM GIVEN ITS OVERALL PERFORMANCE WITH IDENTIFYING THE FOG DEVELOPMENT AND ITS PROGRESSION FROM LAST EVENING. THE FG/BR SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY BETWEEN 12Z AND 1330Z...WITH VFR PREVAILING AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. WITH THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING OFFSHORE...CALM WINDS EARLY AM WILL BECOME SW AROUND 5 KT. EXPECT THE DIURNALLY INDUCED SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP WITH WINDS BACKING TO SSE-SSW AOB 10 KT AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS FOR THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVENING. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. CHANCE OF EARLY MORNING IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WED AM. SHOWERS/MVFR POSSIBLE LATE WED/EARLY THU AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE CAROLINAS. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 10:45 PM MONDAY...LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE WITH SEAS OF UNDER 2 FT PREVAIL OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE THIS EVENING. EXPECT THESE BENIGN CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS: HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA IS MOVING OUT TO SEA THIS AFTERNOON. EASTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE HIGH THIS EVENING WILL COME AROUND TO THE SOUTH LATE...BUT WITH LITTLE INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS. THE STRONGEST WINDS OF THE NEXT 12 HOURS ARE PROBABLY OCCURRING NOW WITH THE SEABREEZE CIRCULATION ENHANCING THE SYNOPTIC FLOW. COMBINED SEAS ARE ONLY 1-2 FEET IN A COMBINATION OF A TINY WIND CHOP AND TWO SMALL 10 SECOND SWELL COMPONENTS. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE DRIVES RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SW WINDS OF 10-15 KTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS CAUSING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW...AND THEN NORTH...BY THURSDAY MORNING WITH SPEEDS STILL AT 10-15 KTS. THESE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST ON THURSDAY...BUT INCREASE SLOWLY LATE IN THE PERIOD. SEAS WED/THU WILL BE PRIMARILY WIND-WAVE DRIVEN...WITH A SW WIND CHOP PRODUCING 2-3 FT SEAS WEDNESDAY. AFTER A BRIEF DECREASE IN WAVE AMPLITUDES BEHIND THE FRONT...A NORTHERLY WIND WAVE WILL AMPLIFY DURING THURSDAY...CAUSING SEAS TO RISE TO 2-4 FT LATE. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...N/NW WINDS FRIDAY WILL BE CONSISTENTLY 10-15 KTS...AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN FROM THE NORTH AND A COLD FRONT STALLS OFFSHORE. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT...AND THIS WILL PRODUCE VERY GUSTY WINDS BEHIND IT...AND N/NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB ABOVE 25 KTS MUCH OF SATURDAY...AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS LIKELY. SEAS FRIDAY WILL BE 2-4 FT...WITH THE HIGHEST WAVES CONFINED NEAR THE 20NM BOUNDARY...BUT WILL RISE SIGNIFICANTLY ON SATURDAY TO 4-6 FT. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ017-023- 024-032-033-039-053>056. NC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ087-096- 099-109-110. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDW NEAR TERM...DCH/REK SHORT TERM...JDW LONG TERM...JDW AVIATION...DCH/BJR MARINE...DCH/REK/JDW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
215 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... FAIR AND MILD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO MID-WEEK BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS COOLING AND A FEW SHOWERS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. A SECONDARY AND STRONGER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN TO WELL BELOW NORMAL THIS WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 110 AM TUESDAY...ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE ILM CWA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE COASTAL COUNTIES FROM CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD. LATEST SFC OBS TRENDS...IR SATELLITE IMAGERY TRENDS PARTICULARLY THE 11-3.9 MICRON CHANNEL...AND THE LATEST HRRR MODEL VSBY PROJECTION...ALL INDICATE THE CURRENT PATCHY DENSE FOG ACROSS THE FA TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD DURING THE PRE-DAWN TUESDAY HOURS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION............................................. AS OF 10:45 PM MONDAY...WHILE WE ARE STILL EXPECTING SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT...IT HAS BEEN SLOW TO FORM AND AT THIS POINT DO NOT EXPECT TO ISSUE ANY ADVISORIES FOR REDUCED VISIBILITIES. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS. OTHERWISE...STILL EXPECTING A COOL AND DRY OVERNIGHT PERIOD. FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWS: HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WILL STEADILY PROGRESS EASTWARD AND OFFSHORE TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD OCCUR ABOUT THE TIME THE SUN SETS. LIGHT WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS AND A DRY ATMOSPHERE SHOULD ALLOW A STRONG RADIATIONAL INVERSION TO DEVELOP. DESPITE DEWPOINTS PLUNGING INTO THE 30S ACROSS PORTIONS OF SE NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON...A SHALLOW LAYER OF FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE HAS HUNG OUT ACROSS COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN HERE AT 3 PM DEWPOINTS ARE AROUND 60 IN THE GEORGETOWN VICINITY...WITH MID TO UPPER 50S ALONG THE GRAND STRAND BEACHES. THESE HIGHER DEWPOINTS SHOULD ADVECT NORTHWESTWARD THIS EVENING IN THE VEERING FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING HIGH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS MOISTURE LAYER SHOULD ONLY BE ABOUT 500-700 FEET THICK ACROSS THE WILMINGTON AREA OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD INCREASE TO AROUND 1200-1500 FT DEPTH ACROSS FLORENCE AND THE PEE DEE REGION. THIS IS PROBABLY THICK ENOUGH TO DEVELOP FOG AND SOME LOW STRATUS INLAND LATE TONIGHT. USING THE NAM 975 MB RH GRID AS A GUIDE...I AM FORECASTING THE BEST CHANCES FOR FOG FROM GEORGETOWN AND MYRTLE BEACH NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS MARION AND FLORENCE INTO HARTSVILLE AND BENNETTSVILLE OVERNIGHT. DESPITE SIMILAR LOW TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS WILMINGTON AND BURGAW THE VERTICAL EXTENT OF MOISTURE HERE MAY BE INSUFFICIENT FOR MORE THAN SPOTTY AND SHALLOW GROUND FOG. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO LOW TEMPERATURE FORECASTS...STILL ANTICIPATED TO RANGE FROM 50-55...COOLEST FROM LAKE WACCAMAW TO BURGAW...AND WARMEST ALONG THE SC BEACHES. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...MAIN WEATHER HEADLINE/STORY THIS PERIOD IS A A LEGITIMATE SHOT AT BREAKING A FEW RECORD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES. LOCATION TUE OCT 28 WED OCT 29 WILMINGTON 87/1984 82/1984 FLORENCE 86/1991 84/1974 N. MYRTLE BEACH 83/1991 83/1991 APPEARS BASED ON THE DATA THE BEST SHOT AT MAKING HISTORY WILL BE WEDNESDAY WHICH STILL PLACES US IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. TIME HEIGHT PLOTS OF RH IMPLY WE MAY SEE PLENTY SUNSHINE WEDNESDAY TO HELP THE CAUSE WITH CLOUDS INCREASING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. RIGHT NOW A CONSENSUS OF MODEL TIMING SUGGESTS THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED S AND E OF THE AREA DAYBREAK THURSDAY...WITH NORTH WINDS ALREADY IN PLACE AT FIRST LIGHT. HAVE RETAINED SLIGHT CHC/CHC SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND VERY EARLY THURSDAY AS FRONT PASSES THROUGH. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...THE FRONT WILL BE THROUGH BY THE START OF THE PERIOD BUT THE COLD ADVECTION WILL BE DELAYED. THURSDAY WILL BE FAIRLY CLOUDY TO START BUT DRY AIR WILL BE ADVECTING IN AND THE AFTERNOON SHOULD END UP QUITE SEASONABLE. THE FRONT WILL LINGER OFF THE COAST ON FRIDAY WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RELOADS BUT IT APPEARS TO BE FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO BRING MUCH CLOUD COVER AND ANOTHER SEASONABLE AFTERNOON SHOULD BE ON TAP. THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AT WHICH TIME THE COLD ADVECTION INTO THE CAROLINAS SHOULD BEGIN IN EARNEST. SATURDAY STILL LIKELY OFFERS A BREEZY AFTERNOON WHERE TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE TO EXCEED 60...EXCEPT FOR SOUTHERN ZONES AS THE THERMAL TROUGH ENDS UP RIGHT OVERHEAD AND THERE MAY BE A N TO S GRADIENT IN HIGHS. THIS THERMAL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD MEAN THAT RADIATION COOLING IS FAVORED SATURDAY NIGHT BUT ALSO THAT THERE MAY BE SOME RECOVERY BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 06Z...CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS HAVE ALLOWED PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE CWA...PRIMARILY AT THE SOUTHERN COASTAL TERMINALS. VSBYS ACROSS THE ILM SC TERMINALS HAVE DROPPED TO DENSE FOG AND EXPECT THAT TO REMAIN THE CASE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PRE-DAWN TUE HOURS. LOOKING AT DENSE FOG TO FINALLY OVERTAKE KLBT PRIOR TO DAYBREAK TUE...WITH KILM POSSIBLY TO REMAIN DENSE FOG FREE. LATEST HRRR MODEL ILLUSTRATES ALL TERMINALS TO EXPERIENCE VSBY AT OR BELOW 1/2 MILE EARLY THIS AM....WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KILM. WILL FOLLOW THE HRRR OUTPUT THIS AM GIVEN ITS OVERALL PERFORMANCE WITH IDENTIFYING THE FOG DEVELOPMENT AND ITS PROGRESSION FROM LAST EVENING. THE FG/BR SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY BETWEEN 12Z AND 1330Z...WITH VFR PREVAILING AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. WITH THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING OFFSHORE...CALM WINDS EARLY AM WILL BECOME SW AROUND 5 KT. EXPECT THE DIURNALLY INDUCED SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP WITH WINDS BACKING TO SSE-SSW AOB 10 KT AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS FOR THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVENING. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. CHANCE OF EARLY MORNING IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WED AM. SHOWERS/MVFR POSSIBLE LATE WED/EARLY THU AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE CAROLINAS. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 10:45 PM MONDAY...LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE WITH SEAS OF UNDER 2 FT PREVAIL OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE THIS EVENING. EXPECT THESE BENIGN CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS: HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA IS MOVING OUT TO SEA THIS AFTERNOON. EASTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE HIGH THIS EVENING WILL COME AROUND TO THE SOUTH LATE...BUT WITH LITTLE INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS. THE STRONGEST WINDS OF THE NEXT 12 HOURS ARE PROBABLY OCCURRING NOW WITH THE SEABREEZE CIRCULATION ENHANCING THE SYNOPTIC FLOW. COMBINED SEAS ARE ONLY 1-2 FEET IN A COMBINATION OF A TINY WIND CHOP AND TWO SMALL 10 SECOND SWELL COMPONENTS. SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...S-SW WINDS THIS PERIOD...AND GRADUALLY INCREASING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL CROSS THE WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE PRESSURE FIELD SURROUNDING THIS FRONT DOES NOT APPEAR STRONGLY CONTRASTED THUS NO ADVISORIES ARE ANTICIPATED AS WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KT THROUGH PASSAGE. WE MAY SEE GUSTS TO 20 KT HOWEVER AND SEAS UP TO 4 FEET WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT. AN ADVISORY HOWEVER MAY BE NEEDED THU. THE SEA SPECTRUM WILL FEATURE 1-1.5 FT SE WAVES EVERY 8-9 SECONDS...AND S WAVES 1-2 FT EVERY 3-5 SECONDS TIED IN WITH LOCAL WINDS. WE CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TSTM WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER THE WATERS AS THE COLD FRONT TRAVELS THROUGH. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...POST-FRONTAL NORTHERLY WINDS TAKE OVER ON THURSDAY. THE NORMAL COLD SURGE-INDUCED INCREASE IN WINDS IS EXPECTED BUT ITS ONSET WILL BE QUITE GRADUAL AT FIRST. THIS WILL BE MORE REALIZED HEADING INTO FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS WELL OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND THE GRADIENT INCREASES LOCALLY. ONCE THE UPPER TROUGH ENERGY SWINGS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AN EVEN FURTHER INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED. WNA GUIDANCE APPEARS QUITE UNDERDONE ON THE RESULTING SEAS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SEEMS POSSIBLE. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ017-023- 024-032-033-039-053>056. NC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ087-096- 099-109-110. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MJC NEAR TERM...DCH/REK SHORT TERM...MJC LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...DCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
415 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...AND AN END OF THE WARM TEMPERATURES. COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH EVEN COLDER CONDITIONS BEHIND ANOTHER COLD FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT WRAPS NORTHEAST AROUND A LARGE MID-LEVEL TROUGH. TRAILING FROM THIS SURFACE LOW IS A LENGTHY COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY EXTENDING THROUGH CHICAGO...ST LOUIS...AND JUST NORTH OF DALLAS. ALTHOUGH THERE IS A MARKED CHANGE IN AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT...THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS IT MOVES EAST. IN FACT...THE WIND SHIFT WILL BECOME LESS DRASTIC WITH TIME...WITH THE EVENTUAL CHANGE IN DIRECTION OVER THE ILN CWA ONLY EXPECTED TO BE SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT IS WEAKENING...AND CONVERGENCE IS SOMEWHAT MODEST...THERE REMAINS STRONG MODEL AGREEMENT THAT RAIN WILL FALL ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TODAY. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...HOWEVER...MAY BE QUITE LIGHT IN SOME PLACES. RECENT HRRR RUNS SUGGEST THAT THE COVERAGE WILL BE THAT OF BROKEN BANDS OF PRECIPITATION. THIS CREATED A CHALLENGE WITH THE POPS...AS THERE MAY BE SOME DRY SPOTS MIXED WITHIN THE AREA OF RAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SINCE MEASURABLE RAIN IS EXPECTED EVERYWHERE...POPS ARE AT 100 PERCENT...BUT QPF AMOUNTS ARE LIGHT. A FAIRLY POTENT LOW-LEVEL JET IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER THE ILN FORECAST AREA...WITH THE KILN VWP SHOWING WINDS OF OVER 50 KNOTS JUST 2000 FEET ABOVE THE GROUND. OCCASIONAL GUSTS ARE REACHING THE SURFACE...AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY AS THE ATMOSPHERE MIXES AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A FEW GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE WARM AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...THE STRONGEST WINDS JUST ALOFT WILL ACTUALLY ALREADY BE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE MORNING. BY LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON...WEAK INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. A MODEL COMPROMISE WOULD SUGGEST AROUND 500 J/KG OF MIXED LAYER CAPE...BUT IN A NARROW PROFILE LIMITED BY RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE LAPSE RATES. SPC SREF PROBABILITIES INDICATE ZERO CHANCE OF CAPE > 1000 J/KG...AND AROUND 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF EVEN GETTING TO 500 J/KG. THUNDER IS EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED AND EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BANDS OF PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THOUGH OBVIOUSLY BECOMING A LITTLE MORE LIKELY AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. ATMOSPHERIC WIND SHEAR IS MARGINALLY IMPRESSIVE IN TERMS OF NUMBERS (45 KNOTS 0-6KM / 30 KNOTS 0-3KM)...BUT NOT IMPRESSIVE AT ALL IN TERMS OF ORIENTATION (UNIDIRECTIONAL AND MOSTLY PARALLEL TO THE FRONT). THIS ADDS UP TO JUST A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...AND LIMITED TO JUST THE NORTHEAST KENTUCKY / SCIOTO VALLEY REGIONS. SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS UNLIKELY...BUT IF STORMS DO DEVELOP IN THIS REGION (AS HRRR/WRF-NMM PROJECTIONS INDICATE)...FORWARD PROPAGATING LINE SEGMENTS COULD PRODUCE STRONG WINDS. WITH THE FRONT COMING INTO THE AREA...IT IS NO SURPRISE THAT THE MAX TEMPERATURE GRID WILL USE A SIGNIFICANT GRADIENT. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN THE MORNING SIGNIFICANTLY AND ANOMALOUSLY WARM...ABOUT AS WARM AS EVER OBSERVED DURING AN OVERNIGHT PERIOD IN LATE OCTOBER. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES (UPPER 70S) ARE EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA...WHERE WARM ADVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE FRONT FOR SEVERAL HOURS. MAX TEMPS MAY VERY WELL BE SET DURING THE MORNING IN THE NORTHWESTERN CWA...WHERE THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLIEST IN THE DAY. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... PRECIPITATION SHOULD END QUICKLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AS A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. MIN TEMPS WERE LOWERED A FEW DEGREES FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEASTERN CWA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE WEST OF THE AREA...INFLUENCING THE WEATHER ENOUGH TO KEEP CONDITIONS DRY. HOWEVER...THE CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING...ESPECIALLY WITH OCCASIONAL CLOUDS (ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE GREAT LAKES). WITH CALMING WINDS ON THURSDAY MORNING...FROST IS LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY...EVEN THOUGH THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT CLOUDS COULD BE BUILDING IN BY MORNING. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN DECREASED A COUPLE DEGREES HERE AS WELL. THE NEXT BIG CHANGE IN AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE ON FRIDAY...AND IT WILL AGAIN BE A CHANGE IN THE COOLER DIRECTION. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A STRONGER SHORT WAVE WILL ROTATE DOWN ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND PIVOT THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE STRONGEST FORCING WILL GENERALLY REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AND EAST...WE SHOULD STILL AT LEAST SEE SOME SOME SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH THE DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS ABOUT THE NORTHEAST HALF OF OUR FA. STRONG CA WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE...PUSHING DOWN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS LATER IN THE DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA. IT LOOKS LIKE THE COLDEST AIR WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL ONCE THE DEEPER MOISTURE HAS SHIFTED OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND THE COBB METHOD ARE BOTH SUGGESTING THAT THE LOWER LEVELS WILL REMAIN WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP PCPN ALL LIQUID THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THAT BEING SAID...IF THE SHOWERS BECOME A BIT CONVECTIVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...SUPPOSE A FEW WET SNOW FLAKES COULD MIX IN LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST. IN CONTINUED CAA...EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR OUR FIRST WIDESPREAD FREEZE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING DOWN INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING WELL BELOW NORMAL. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES ARE ONLY SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ON SATURDAY. WILL NOT GO QUITE THAT COLD AT THIS POINT BUT WILL NUDGE DOWN HIGHS A BIT...GENERALLY INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S. MODELS ARE A LITTLE FASTER NOW SHIFTING THE HIGH OFF TO THE EAST SO IT MAY BE CENTERED JUST OFF TO OUR EAST BY SUNDAY MORNING. WE SHOULD STILL HAVE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THOUGH AND LIGHT WINDS...SO WOULD EXPECT SATURDAY NIGHT TO BE OUR COLDEST NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD THEN SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST AND WE GET INTO RETURN FLOW. && .AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A STRONG 925 MB-850 MB LOW LEVEL JET EXISTS OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING WELL IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST. BELIEVE NON CONVECTIVE LLWS WILL NOT BE MET (RESULTING IN +20 KT/-20 KT GAIN OR LOSS OF AIRSPEED) FOR VARIOUS REASONS. THERE IS ENOUGH SUSTAINED WIND...LOCAL GUSTINESS...AT THE SURFACE TO INDICATE SOME MIXING NEAR THE SURFACE. ALSO...MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE WIND SPEED INCREASE IS GRADUAL ENOUGH...AND THE WIND DIRECTION CHANGE SMALL ENOUGH TO PREVENT TRUE LLWS. THUS... ANY TURBULENCE WILL MOST LIKELY BE ATTRIBUTED TO MECHANICAL TURBULENCE DUE TO INCREASING WIND FLOW WITH HEIGHT. FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH THE REGION. THIS FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT. LOOKING AT MANY MODEL SOLUTIONS...IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE APPROXIMATELY A 4 HOUR WINDOW OF PCPN AT ALL TAF SITES. THINK WE WILL SEE AT LEAST SOME MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES WITH SHOWERS. THREAT OF THUNDER IS LOW ENOUGH TO JUST MENTION AS VCTS AT THIS TIME. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHTLY HIGHER THREAT NEAR THE EASTERN TAF SITES OF KCMH/KLCK WHERE THE LATER ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR A LITTLE BIT MORE DIURNAL INSTABILITY. GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND SHIFT TO THE WEST AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION AS WELL...ALLOWING VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN RATHER QUICKLY. FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS THE FRONT CONTINUES EAST/SOUTHEAST...JUST SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED. .OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HATZOS NEAR TERM...HATZOS SHORT TERM...HATZOS LONG TERM...JGL AVIATION...HICKMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
1123 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014 .DISCUSSION... THE 06Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW... && .AVIATION... CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN REASONING FROM THE 00Z FORECAST. SCT SHRA/TSRA BEHIND A COLD FROPA MAY AFFECT THE TERMINALS THRU THE NIGHT. IF A STORM MOVES OVER A TERMINAL...EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS FOR A TIME. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD EXIT THE REGION BY AROUND 12Z TUESDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS THINGS CLEAR OUT ON TUESDAY. LACY && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 950 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014/ DISCUSSION... COLD FRONT AT 230Z..FROM FAR NORTHEAST CORNER OK TO SC OK. RADAR OVER SMALL CORNER OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA UNIMPRESSIVE AT THIS TIME...JUST SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS. ONLY A COUPLE LIGHTNING STRIKES ALL EVENING NORTHEAST OK. LATEST WRF/HRRR DRIER THAN EARLIER RUNS. MODESTLY REDUCED POP FOR REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THUNDER THREAT NEGLIGIBLE. GW PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014/ DISCUSSION... THE 00Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW. AVIATION... CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM. A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY INTO NORTHEAST OK AND WILL CONTINUE TO THE SOUTHEAST THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD. POST FRONTAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE EXPTD OVER IN NW AR. BASED ON THIS THINKING...VCTS WILL BE USED FOR THE ERN OK SITES AND TEMPO GROUPS WILL BE USED FOR THE NW AR SITES...WITH THE TIMING BASED ON THE LATEST DATA FROM THE RUC13 AND HRRR MODELS. LACY PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014/ DISCUSSION... AFTER A BREEZY AND WARM START TO THE WORK WEEK...A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER PATTERN WILL DEVELOP FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. FIRST...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING...TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. LIMITED INSTABILITY WILL LESSEN THE CHANCE FOR ANY OF THE STORMS TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE...HOWEVER A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SMALL HAIL...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING...AS THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION SHIFTS TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL QUICKLY FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS NORTH...AS THE FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE SOUTH CONTINUING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST. THE FRONT WILL FINALLY SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING...LEAVING COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER BURST OF COOLER AIR FOR LATE IN THE WEEK. LOOKING AHEAD...ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 54 72 44 72 / 50 10 0 0 FSM 61 71 46 71 / 50 40 20 10 MLC 57 72 46 73 / 40 20 10 0 BVO 50 71 39 71 / 40 10 0 0 FYV 54 69 40 68 / 60 20 10 0 BYV 55 68 42 67 / 60 20 10 10 MKO 56 72 44 72 / 50 20 0 0 MIO 52 69 42 69 / 60 10 0 0 F10 56 71 47 72 / 40 10 0 0 HHW 63 71 51 73 / 20 40 20 10 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...NONE. AR...NONE. && $$ AVIATION...30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
728 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE FIRST WIDESPREAD FROST OF THE SEASON SO FAR MAY OCCUR THIS WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... THERE HAS BEEN AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE OFFSHORE HIGH. THIS MOISTURE PLUS NOCTURNAL COOLING WITH DRY AIR ALOFT HAS HELPED CAUSE DENSE FOG MAINLY IN THE EAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE HRRR DISPLAYS THE FOG SPREADING WESTWARD AND INTO MUCH OF THE REMAINING FORECAST AREA BEFORE 900 AM. WE HAVE POSTED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. WE MAY NEED TO EXPAND THE ADVISORY INTO THE WEST SECTION. HOWEVER...DEW POINT TEMPERATURES ARE LOWER IN THE WEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AND SATELLITE TRENDS HAVE INDICATED LITTLE DEVELOPMENT WESTWARD AND INTO THIS DRIER AIR. THE MOISTURE IS SHALLOW. HEATING AND MIXING SHOULD DISSIPATE THE FOG LATER THIS MORNING. THE HRRR SHOWS FOG DIMINISHING BETWEEN 1000 AM AND 1100 AM. IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH PLENTY OF AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. WE USED THE WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BASED ON RECENT VERIFICATION. EXPECT READINGS JUST SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN YESTERDAY BASED ON THE INCREASED MOISTURE AND WEAK H85 COLD ADVECTION. THE DRY WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH THE RIDGING REMAINING DOMINATE. NOCTURNAL COOLING AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY SUPPORT AREAS OF FOG AGAIN BUT THE FOG MAY BE LIMITED BY AN INCREASE IN BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. IT MAY BE MORE STRATUS THAN FOG BECAUSE OF THIS WIND. LEANED TOWARD THE MORE CONSISTENT MAV MOS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST TONIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... THE NAM AND GFS DISPLAY THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WEDNESDAY. THE NAM AND GFS MOS HAVE CHANCE POPS AND THIS APPEARS REASONABLE. SATELLITE TRENDS AND THE MODELS INDICATE THE STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL LIFT WILL STAY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALSO EXPECT THE H85 FLOW WILL TURN WESTERLY WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT LIMITING MOISTURE. THE NAM DISPLAYS SURFACE-BASED LI/S -2 TO -3 WEDNESDAY. THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE IS LOW BECAUSE OF THE WEAK INSTABILITY AND FORCING. THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE JUST LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS. USED THE WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BECAUSE WE SHOULD BE JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. MIXING BEHIND THE FRONT SUPPORTS THE WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL FEATURE A COOLING TREND TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND POSSIBLY OUR FIRST WIDESPREAD FROST OF THE FALL SEASON SATURDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD. DRYING IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT SHOULD OCCUR THURSDAY. THE MODELS SHOW A REINFORCING COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THIS FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE ORIGINATING IN CENTRAL CANADA WILL DOMINATE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAVE LOWS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT. FROST MAY OCCUR DURING THESE NIGHTS. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... EARLY MORNING FOG AND STRATUS UNTIL AROUND 14Z. LATEST 11U-3.9U IR SHOWING LOW CLOUDS/FOG SPREADING FROM THE LOWCOUNTRY INTO THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE AN INCREASED FOG THREAT EARLY THIS MORNING. THINK ALL TAF SITES WILL BE AFFECTED...WITH LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT CAE...AGS AND OGB...AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AT CUB/DNL. AFTER MORNING FOG AND LOW CLOUDINESS DISSIPATES...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN BY 14Z. . HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIP TO OUR EAST AND A SW WIND EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. FEW TO SCT CU POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. .EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE LATE TUE NT/EARLY WED MORNING. A FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE WED/WED NT PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS. && .CLIMATE... DAILY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE NOT ESTABLISHED MONDAY. DAILY RECORD HIGHS FOR TUESDAY 10/28 ARE: CAE...90/1984 AGS...89/1984 && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ015-016- 022-027>031-035>038-041. GA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR GAZ065-077. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
628 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE FIRST WIDESPREAD FROST OF THE SEASON SO FAR MAY OCCUR THIS WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... THERE HAS BEEN AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE OFFSHORE HIGH. THIS MOISTURE PLUS NOCTURNAL COOLING WITH DRY AIR ALOFT HAS HELPED CAUSE DENSE FOG MAINLY IN THE EAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE HRRR DISPLAYS THE FOG SPREADING WESTWARD AND INTO MUCH OF THE REMAINING FORECAST AREA BEFORE 900 AM. WE HAVE POSTED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. WE MAY NEED TO EXPAND THE ADVISORY INTO THE WEST SECTION. HOWEVER...DEW POINT TEMPERATURES ARE LOWER IN THE WEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AND SATELLITE TRENDS HAVE INDICATED LITTLE DEVELOPMENT WESTWARD AND INTO THIS DRIER AIR. THE MOISTURE IS SHALLOW. HEATING AND MIXING SHOULD DISSIPATE THE FOG LATER THIS MORNING. THE HRRR SHOWS FOG DIMINISHING BETWEEN 1000 AM AND 1100 AM. IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH PLENTY OF AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. WE USED THE WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BASED ON RECENT VERIFICATION. EXPECT READINGS JUST SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN YESTERDAY BASED ON THE INCREASED MOISTURE AND WEAK H85 COLD ADVECTION. THE DRY WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH THE RIDGING REMAINING DOMINATE. NOCTURNAL COOLING AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY SUPPORT AREAS OF FOG AGAIN BUT THE FOG MAY BE LIMITED BY AN INCREASE IN BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. IT MAY BE MORE STRATUS THAN FOG BECAUSE OF THIS WIND. LEANED TOWARD THE MORE CONSISTENT MAV MOS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST TONIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... THE NAM AND GFS DISPLAY THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WEDNESDAY. THE NAM AND GFS MOS HAVE CHANCE POPS AND THIS APPEARS REASONABLE. SATELLITE TRENDS AND THE MODELS INDICATE THE STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL LIFT WILL STAY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALSO EXPECT THE H85 FLOW WILL TURN WESTERLY WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT LIMITING MOISTURE. THE NAM DISPLAYS SURFACE-BASED LI/S -2 TO -3 WEDNESDAY. THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE IS LOW BECAUSE OF THE WEAK INSTABILITY AND FORCING. THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE JUST LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS. USED THE WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BECAUSE WE SHOULD BE JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. MIXING BEHIND THE FRONT SUPPORTS THE WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL FEATURE A COOLING TREND TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND POSSIBLY OUR FIRST WIDESPREAD FROST OF THE FALL SEASON SATURDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD. DRYING IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT SHOULD OCCUR THURSDAY. THE MODELS SHOW A REINFORCING COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THIS FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE ORIGINATING IN CENTRAL CANADA WILL DOMINATE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAVE LOWS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT. FROST MAY OCCUR DURING THESE NIGHTS. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... EARLY MORNING FOG AND STRATUS UNTIL AROUND 14Z. LATEST 11U-3.9U IR SHOWING LOW CLOUDS/FOG SPREADING FROM THE LOWCOUNTRY INTO THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE AN INCREASED FOG THREAT EARLY THIS MORNING. THINK ALL TAF SITES WILL BE AFFECTED...WITH LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT AGS AND OGB...AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AT CAE/CUB/DNL. AFTER MORNING FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUDINESS DISSIPATES...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN BY 14Z. . HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIP TO OUR EAST AND A SW WIND EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. FEW TO SCT CU POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. .EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE LATE TUE NT/EARLY WED MORNING. A FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE WED/WED NT PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS. && .CLIMATE... DAILY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE NOT ESTABLISHED MONDAY. DAILY RECORD HIGHS FOR TUESDAY 10/28 ARE: CAE...90/1984 AGS...89/1984 && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ015-016- 022-027>031-035>038-041. GA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR GAZ065-077. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
621 AM CDT Tue Oct 28 2014 ...Update to aviation forecast discussion... .SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight) Issued at 228 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014 Recent water vapor satellite imagery depicts a strong upper wave rotating through the main upper trough across northern Kansas. A few bands of mainly weak radar returns have passed through much of the local area in recent hours via rather strong upper level frontogenesis, but quite dry low levels limiting this to very light amounts (if any) reaching the ground. NAM and RAP indicate both forcing and moisture aloft diminishing through sunrise and these processes seem to be underway per latest IR and radar trends. Surface high pressure was building into the central High Plains with temps there around the freezing mark under mainly clear skies and light winds. It appears radar-produced low-level winds are being impacted by bird migration with speeds likely 10-20kt too high. Cold air advection becomes rather modest today, but much cooler air than recent days will keep highs in the lower to mid 60s in decent mixing. There should be a second round of high cloud in the morning to early afternoon, but the late afternoon and nighttime hours should be clear as the surface high comes into the Central Plains. Expect some modification of the upstream airmass today, where local temps have been well above normal for several days. Lows will be kept above freezing, with slightly lower values likely in protected areas. Have boosted frost wording but rather dry airmass and the very warm ground may keep widespread frost in check. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 228 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014 A cool start expected for Wednesday with morning frost possible across much of the forecast area. Temperatures still should make it to lower to middle 60s as southerly winds slowly move into the area from the west on the back side of the surface high. Some amplified mixing and southerly flow comes through with the clipper along and just to our north early Thursday, bringing mixed overnight low temperatures in the 40s. Despite cooler air moving driving southward into the northern and central plains for Thursday, our area is on the leading edge of the colder air and should mix to another day in the 60s before the colder temperatures make it southward. Again incoming high pressure and northerly winds through the night Thursday night into Friday look to keep lows from tanking too far, but do have lows in the 30s north to near 40 south. Sunshine should help get temperatures into the 50s for Friday afternoon. The surface high moves into the upper Midwest late Friday into early Saturday, and keeps push of colder air over eastern Kansas with lows forecast in the 30s. Another quick return of an upper ridge and southerly surface winds should bring highs back into the 50s for Saturday. How the next round of upper trofs moves out of the Rockies for Sunday into Monday varies within the extended models. Could see some warm air advection showers early Sunday but chances too low for mention this early. Both EC and GFS suggest better chances for rain come later Sunday into Monday and will keep grids as such, but smaller scale and progressive nature of the waves will likely change timing and probabilities as forecast draws closer. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Wednesday Morning) Issued at 621 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014 VFR conditions expected as dry high pressure builds in. Modest northwest winds will dominate, with weaker winds for much of the latter half of the forecast. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...65 LONG TERM...67 AVIATION...65
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS DULUTH MN
641 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 641 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014 UPDATED FOR THE NEW 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014 AT 330 AM...RAIN CONTINUED TO PUSH NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD REGION BUT THE OVERALL TREND HAS BEEN TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. MUCH OF THE REGION WAS NOW IN A DRY SLOT WRAPPING INTO THE DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...WHICH IS CURRENTLY STILL IN TRANSITION FROM HAVING THE TWO UPPER LEVEL LOWS PHASE INTO ONE. RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS THE DAY WEARS ON...STARTING IN NORTH CENTRAL MN AND THEN SPREADING SOUTH AND EASTWARD THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE CWA. THE 4 KM NMM WRF SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY AS WELL AS THE HRRR ALL SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO. WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TODAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT A POSSIBLE MIX IN THE FAR NORTH FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA INTO TONIGHT. NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION BUT COULD SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION ON GRASSY AREAS NORTH. PRECIPITATION SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE TONIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER DEVELOPING ON WEDNESDAY BUT ALSO THINK THE LOW CLOUDS WILL BE FAIRLY PERSISTENT AND WIDESPREAD. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014 A SUBTLE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND TUESDAY EVENING...WHILE A SHORTWAVE AND LOW WILL PASS JUST TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE NORTHLAND. THIS SHORTWAVE AND TROUGH COULD BRING LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE FAR SW FORECAST AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY WITH A LARGE SURFACE HIGH FOLLOWING IN ITS WAKE. THE COOL NORTHERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN CLOUDY WEATHER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING WITH CHANCES OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS NEAR THE GOGEBIC RANGE COULD RESULT IN UP TO A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOWFALL. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHLAND FRIDAY. HALLOWEEN LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE ONE OF THE COLDEST DAYS THIS FALL SO FAR...BUT IT SHOULD BE SUNNY WITH LIGHT WINDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S OVER THE NORTH TO NEAR 40 DEGREES OVER THE SOUTH. THERE WILL BE A WARMING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND AS SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING SURFACE HIGH AND A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE WESTERN UNITED STATES SHIFTS IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. THERE ARE LOW CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 641 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014 A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL LIFT INTO NE ONTARIO TODAY. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS OVER NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE COULD BE BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CIGS AND/OR VSBYS FROM -RA OR -RASN. GUSTY W TO WNW WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 44 33 41 33 / 70 60 10 10 INL 41 30 38 30 / 70 70 10 10 BRD 44 33 44 33 / 40 20 0 10 HYR 48 35 45 32 / 60 50 10 10 ASX 49 37 44 33 / 70 60 10 10 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...NONE. WI...NONE. LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ121-145>148. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ143-144. && $$ SHORT TERM...DAP LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1004 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS INTO EARLY THURSDAY...ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. A SECOND AND STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING THE FIRST TRULY COLD AIR OF THE SEASON FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 10 AM TUESDAY...DENSE FOG HAS DISSIPATED ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA SO THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 10 AM EDT. LINGERING LOW STRATUS ASSOCIATED WITH DISSIPATING FOG SHOULD BE GONE WITHIN THE NEXT 2 HOURS. SKIES WILL AGAIN REMAIN CLOUD FREE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT KEEPING MID LEVELS VERY DRY. ONLY MINIMAL CHANGES REQUIRED FOR MORNING UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS: AS OF 615 AM TUESDAY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO REMAIN IN EFFECT THRU 9AM FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE ILM CWA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE COASTAL COUNTIES FROM CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD. LATEST SFC OBS TRENDS...LATEST IR 11-3.9 MICRON CHANNEL SATELLITE IMAGERY TRENDS AND THE LATEST HRRR MODEL PROJECTIONS...ALL INDICATE THE AREAS TO WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG ACROSS THE FA TO CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK. THE FOG IS QUITE SHALLOW VIA VARIOUS MODEL SOUNDING DATA IN THE VERTICAL...AND SHOULD ALL DISSIPATE BY 1300Z. A FULL DAYS WORTH OF INSOLATION IS IN STORE FOR THE FA AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS PUSHES OFF THE CAROLINA COASTS DURING TODAY. WITH 500MB HEIGHTS PROGGED IN THE 580S AND CORRESPONDING 1K-5H THICKNESSES IN THE 570S...WIDESPREAD 80S FOR MAX TEMPS TODAY ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. A SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR BY MIDDAY WITH SOME INLAND PENETRATION THIS AFTN...THUS LIMITING THE 80+ DEGREE HIGHS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. INLAND WILL BE A DIFFERENT STORY WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT SW WINDS WITH MIXING IN THE LOW LEVELS LIMITED...MAX TEMPS COULD APPROACH RECORD HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON. RECORD HIGHS TODAY...TUESDAY OCT 28 2014... FLORENCE RECORD IS 86 SET IN 1991. NORTH MYRTLE BEACH RECORD IS 83 SET IN 1991...COULD BE REACHED IF THE SEA BREEZE IS DELAYED. WILMINGTON RECORD IS 87 SET IN 1984...WILL LIKELY FALL SHORT. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS PROGGED TO MOVE FURTHER EAST AND OFFSHORE FROM THE CAROLINA COASTS TONIGHT...ALLOWING INCREASING SW WINDS TO SET UP ALOFT. MODELS HINT AT A 25 TO 30 KT LOW LEVEL JET TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. NAMBUFR HOURLY SOUNDINGS ILLUSTRATE THIS JET AND ALSO THE LIMITED MOISTURE FROM THE SFC UP TO THE BASE OF THIS LOW LEVEL JET. AS A RESULT...SFC FOG FORMATION...IF ANY...WILL BE PATCHY AND AT A MINIMUM. HOWEVER...A LOW STRATUS CLOUD DECK REMAINS POSSIBLE AND THEREFORE WILL NOT GO COMPLETELY CLEAR FOR SKY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. UPSTREAM THIN CI WILL LIKELY SPREAD OVERHEAD...MAINLY ACROSS THE ILM NC COUNTIES. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOP OVER THE GULF STREAM LATE TONIGHT...WITH ANY ISOLATED NOCTURNAL SHRA REMAINING OFFSHORE. FOR TONIGHT...KEPT MINS CLOSER TO THE HIGHER END OF THE AVBL MODEL MOS GUIDANCE...AND WENT EVEN A FEW DEGREES HIER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST DUE TO ACTIVE ONSHORE SSW- SW WINDS HAVING CROSSED SSTS STILL IN THE 70S. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...ONE LAST WARM DAY WEDNESDAY BEFORE A MAJOR PATTERN SHIFT OCCURS ACROSS THE EAST. HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL ONCE AGAIN COMBINE WITH RAISED THICKNESSES BENEATH AN UPPER RIDGE TO DRIVE WARM ADVECTION AND CAUSE MAX TEMPS TO SOAR INTO THE 80S. RECORD HIGHS WILL BE APPROACHED...ESPECIALLY INLAND SINCE COOLER OCEAN TEMPS WILL KEEP HIGHS AT THE COAST LOWER...BUT A WARM DAY EVERYWHERE IS EXPECTED. THIS WILL BE THE LAST OF THE WARMTH FOR SOME TIME HOWEVER. COLD FRONT RACES EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CROSSING OFFSHORE BY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS IS PUSHED BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND ALTHOUGH THE FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY AND PWATS RISE ONLY MARGINALLY...SOME QPF IS EXPECTED WITHIN SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT. WHILE THE RAIN IS NEEDED LOCALLY...THE FORECAST LOW QPF WILL BE ONLY MARGINALLY BENEFICIAL. STILL...THE FRONT SIGNALS A SIGNIFICANT AIR-MASS CHANGE AND TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL STALL JUST OFFSHORE AS A SECOND SHORTWAVE DIVES INTO THE DEVELOPING FULL-LATITUDE TROUGH...AND THIS WILL KEEP AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY...PRIMARILY NEAR THE COAST. IT WILL NOT BE A WASH OUT BY ANY STRETCH...BUT SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED. MINS WED NIGHT AHEAD OF/ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL BE IN THE MID 50S...FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL EXIST ON HALLOWEEN...BUT THE REAL STORY OF THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE FIRST TRULY COLD AIR OF THE SEASON. LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST WILL REASSERT ITSELF AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE ON FRIDAY IS QUITE POTENT...AND ALTHOUGH IT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA...ENOUGH FORCING ALOFT COMBINED WITH SOME SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT BENEATH IT MAY CREATE SOME SHOWERS FOR HALLOWEEN NIGHT. COLUMN BECOMES INCREASINGLY SATURATED FRIDAY EVE AND OVERNIGHT...BUT MOISTURE IS CONFINED BELOW 600MB AND PWATS STAY RATHER LOW. EXPECT MORE CLOUDS THAN SHOWERS...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT QPF FOR HALLOWEEN FESTIVITIES. MORE IMPRESSIVELY HOWEVER...WILL BE THE COLD ADVECTION THAT DEVELOPS BEHIND THIS FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THIS FEATURE BRINGS COLD AIR WITH IT...AS EVIDENCED BY 925MB TEMPS DROPPING 8-10C DURING EARLY SATURDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL DROP TEMPS TO NEAR JANUARY-LEVELS...WITH HIGHS AND LOWS EXPECTED TO BE 10+ DEGREES BELOW CLIMO...THE FIRST COLD OUTBREAK OF THE YEAR. LOWS SUNDAY MORNING ARE FORECAST TO BE THE COLDEST OF THE STRETCH...WHEN MANY LOCATIONS WITHIN THE CWA SHOULD DROP BELOW 40 DEGREES...ALTHOUGH MONDAY MORNING MAY BE EQUALLY COLD AS RADIATIONAL COOLING BECOMES MORE SIGNIFICANT THANKS TO LIGHTER WINDS. SOIL TEMPERATURES ARE STILL QUITE WARM...AND THE WINDS SUNDAY MORNING SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY FROST LOCALLY. HOWEVER...AS WINDS EASE AND SOIL TEMPS DROP WITH THE UPCOMING COLD AIR...FROST IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY MONDAY MORNING. HIGHS FOR THE WKND WILL STRUGGLE TO EVEN REACH 60. ON MONDAY THE CORE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE...SO WHILE TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE BEGINNING OF NOVEMBER...THEY WILL WARM SEVERAL DEGREES FROM WHAT IS ANTICIPATED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. && .AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 12Z...WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG WILL AFFECT THE MYRTLES AND THE INLAND TERMINALS THROUGH 13Z...IMPROVING TO VFR BY 14Z. ILM IS UP AT THIS TIME...BUT COULD HAVE BRIEF FOG/STRATUS AS A LITTLE MIXING BEGINS. HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL GIVE US SOUTHWEST FLOW TODAY...WITH A SLIGHT BACKING TO SOUTH NEAR THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...FOG WILL LIKELY RETURN WITH FAVORABLE MOISTURE PROFILES ONCE AGAIN. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. CHANCE OF EARLY MORNING IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WED AM. SHOWERS/MVFR POSSIBLE LATE WED/EARLY THU AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE CAROLINAS. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 9 AM TUESDAY...LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH OFF THE COAST DRIFTS FARTHER EAST. SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10 TO 15 KT BUT ISOLATED HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST ONCE THE SEA BREEZE SETS UP. SEAS WILL RUN 1 TO 2 FT TODAY. MINIMAL CHANGES TO FORECAST REQUIRED FOR MORNING UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS: AS OF 630 AM TUESDAY...CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH TO PUSH FURTHER EAST AND OFFSHORE FROM THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE SFC PRESSURE PATTERN AND RELAXED GRADIENT WILL YIELD A SSW-SW WIND AROUND 10 KT TODAY...AND MAINLY SW INCREASING TO 10-15 KT WITH FEW GUSTS UP TO 20 KT LATE TONIGHT. FOR THE NEAR SHORE WATERS...THE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTN WILL BACK WINDS TO SSE-S AT 10 TO POSSIBLY 15 KT INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE OVERALL INCREASING SYNOPTIC WINDS AND GUSTS TONIGHT WILL BE THE RESULT OF A LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY JET AND A SLIGHTLY TIGHTENED SFC PG. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN 1 TO 2 FT TODAY...AND BUILD TO NEAR OR AROUND 3 FT TONIGHT. THIS IS IN LINE WITH WAVEWATCH3 AND LOCALLY PRODUCED SWAN NUMBERS. DOMINANT PERIODS WILL RANGE 8 TO 9 SECONDS TODAY WITH AN EASTERLY GROUND SWELL PREVAILING. DOMINANT PERIODS WILL DROP TO 3 TO 5 SECONDS NEARSHORE THIS AFTN...AND FOR ALL WATERS TONIGHT. THIS IN RESPONSE TO THE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTN...FOLLOWED BY INCREASING SW WIND DRIVEN WAVES ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE DRIVES RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SW WINDS OF 10-15 KTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS CAUSING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW...AND THEN NORTH...BY THURSDAY MORNING WITH SPEEDS STILL AT 10-15 KTS. THESE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST ON THURSDAY...BUT INCREASE SLOWLY LATE IN THE PERIOD. SEAS WED/THU WILL BE PRIMARILY WIND-WAVE DRIVEN...WITH A SW WIND CHOP PRODUCING 2-3 FT SEAS WEDNESDAY. AFTER A BRIEF DECREASE IN WAVE AMPLITUDES BEHIND THE FRONT...A NORTHERLY WIND WAVE WILL AMPLIFY DURING THURSDAY...CAUSING SEAS TO RISE TO 2-4 FT LATE. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...N/NW WINDS FRIDAY WILL BE CONSISTENTLY 10-15 KTS...AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN FROM THE NORTH AND A COLD FRONT STALLS OFFSHORE. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT...AND THIS WILL PRODUCE VERY GUSTY WINDS BEHIND IT...AND N/NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB ABOVE 25 KTS MUCH OF SATURDAY...AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS LIKELY. SEAS FRIDAY WILL BE 2-4 FT...WITH THE HIGHEST WAVES CONFINED NEAR THE 20NM BOUNDARY...BUT WILL RISE SIGNIFICANTLY ON SATURDAY TO 4-6 FT. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDW NEAR TERM...DCH SHORT TERM...JDW LONG TERM...JDW AVIATION...43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
921 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS INTO EARLY THURSDAY...ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. A SECOND AND STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING THE FIRST TRULY COLD AIR OF THE SEASON FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 9 AM TUESDAY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST FOG WILL HANG AROUND IN MOST AREAS FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO...THUS THE DFA HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH 10 AM. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS SHALLOW SO ONCE MIXING DEVELOPS THE FOG SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE. SKIES WILL AGAIN REMAIN CLOUD FREE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT KEEPING MID LEVELS VERY DRY. ONLY MINIMAL CHANGES REQUIRED FOR MORNING UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS: AS OF 615 AM TUESDAY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO REMAIN IN EFFECT THRU 9AM FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE ILM CWA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE COASTAL COUNTIES FROM CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD. LATEST SFC OBS TRENDS...LATEST IR 11-3.9 MICRON CHANNEL SATELLITE IMAGERY TRENDS AND THE LATEST HRRR MODEL PROJECTIONS...ALL INDICATE THE AREAS TO WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG ACROSS THE FA TO CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK. THE FOG IS QUITE SHALLOW VIA VARIOUS MODEL SOUNDING DATA IN THE VERTICAL...AND SHOULD ALL DISSIPATE BY 1300Z. A FULL DAYS WORTH OF INSOLATION IS IN STORE FOR THE FA AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS PUSHES OFF THE CAROLINA COASTS DURING TODAY. WITH 500MB HEIGHTS PROGGED IN THE 580S AND CORRESPONDING 1K-5H THICKNESSES IN THE 570S...WIDESPREAD 80S FOR MAX TEMPS TODAY ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. A SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR BY MIDDAY WITH SOME INLAND PENETRATION THIS AFTN...THUS LIMITING THE 80+ DEGREE HIGHS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. INLAND WILL BE A DIFFERENT STORY WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT SW WINDS WITH MIXING IN THE LOW LEVELS LIMITED...MAX TEMPS COULD APPROACH RECORD HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON. RECORD HIGHS TODAY...TUESDAY OCT 28 2014... FLORENCE RECORD IS 86 SET IN 1991. NORTH MYRTLE BEACH RECORD IS 83 SET IN 1991...COULD BE REACHED IF THE SEA BREEZE IS DELAYED. WILMINGTON RECORD IS 87 SET IN 1984...WILL LIKELY FALL SHORT. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS PROGGED TO MOVE FURTHER EAST AND OFFSHORE FROM THE CAROLINA COASTS TONIGHT...ALLOWING INCREASING SW WINDS TO SET UP ALOFT. MODELS HINT AT A 25 TO 30 KT LOW LEVEL JET TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. NAMBUFR HOURLY SOUNDINGS ILLUSTRATE THIS JET AND ALSO THE LIMITED MOISTURE FROM THE SFC UP TO THE BASE OF THIS LOW LEVEL JET. AS A RESULT...SFC FOG FORMATION...IF ANY...WILL BE PATCHY AND AT A MINIMUM. HOWEVER...A LOW STRATUS CLOUD DECK REMAINS POSSIBLE AND THEREFORE WILL NOT GO COMPLETELY CLEAR FOR SKY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. UPSTREAM THIN CI WILL LIKELY SPREAD OVERHEAD...MAINLY ACROSS THE ILM NC COUNTIES. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOP OVER THE GULF STREAM LATE TONIGHT...WITH ANY ISOLATED NOCTURNAL SHRA REMAINING OFFSHORE. FOR TONIGHT...KEPT MINS CLOSER TO THE HIGHER END OF THE AVBL MODEL MOS GUIDANCE...AND WENT EVEN A FEW DEGREES HIER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST DUE TO ACTIVE ONSHORE SSW- SW WINDS HAVING CROSSED SSTS STILL IN THE 70S. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...ONE LAST WARM DAY WEDNESDAY BEFORE A MAJOR PATTERN SHIFT OCCURS ACROSS THE EAST. HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL ONCE AGAIN COMBINE WITH RAISED THICKNESSES BENEATH AN UPPER RIDGE TO DRIVE WARM ADVECTION AND CAUSE MAX TEMPS TO SOAR INTO THE 80S. RECORD HIGHS WILL BE APPROACHED...ESPECIALLY INLAND SINCE COOLER OCEAN TEMPS WILL KEEP HIGHS AT THE COAST LOWER...BUT A WARM DAY EVERYWHERE IS EXPECTED. THIS WILL BE THE LAST OF THE WARMTH FOR SOME TIME HOWEVER. COLD FRONT RACES EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CROSSING OFFSHORE BY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS IS PUSHED BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND ALTHOUGH THE FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY AND PWATS RISE ONLY MARGINALLY...SOME QPF IS EXPECTED WITHIN SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT. WHILE THE RAIN IS NEEDED LOCALLY...THE FORECAST LOW QPF WILL BE ONLY MARGINALLY BENEFICIAL. STILL...THE FRONT SIGNALS A SIGNIFICANT AIR-MASS CHANGE AND TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL STALL JUST OFFSHORE AS A SECOND SHORTWAVE DIVES INTO THE DEVELOPING FULL-LATITUDE TROUGH...AND THIS WILL KEEP AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY...PRIMARILY NEAR THE COAST. IT WILL NOT BE A WASH OUT BY ANY STRETCH...BUT SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED. MINS WED NIGHT AHEAD OF/ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL BE IN THE MID 50S...FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL EXIST ON HALLOWEEN...BUT THE REAL STORY OF THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE FIRST TRULY COLD AIR OF THE SEASON. LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST WILL REASSERT ITSELF AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE ON FRIDAY IS QUITE POTENT...AND ALTHOUGH IT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA...ENOUGH FORCING ALOFT COMBINED WITH SOME SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT BENEATH IT MAY CREATE SOME SHOWERS FOR HALLOWEEN NIGHT. COLUMN BECOMES INCREASINGLY SATURATED FRIDAY EVE AND OVERNIGHT...BUT MOISTURE IS CONFINED BELOW 600MB AND PWATS STAY RATHER LOW. EXPECT MORE CLOUDS THAN SHOWERS...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT QPF FOR HALLOWEEN FESTIVITIES. MORE IMPRESSIVELY HOWEVER...WILL BE THE COLD ADVECTION THAT DEVELOPS BEHIND THIS FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THIS FEATURE BRINGS COLD AIR WITH IT...AS EVIDENCED BY 925MB TEMPS DROPPING 8-10C DURING EARLY SATURDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL DROP TEMPS TO NEAR JANUARY-LEVELS...WITH HIGHS AND LOWS EXPECTED TO BE 10+ DEGREES BELOW CLIMO...THE FIRST COLD OUTBREAK OF THE YEAR. LOWS SUNDAY MORNING ARE FORECAST TO BE THE COLDEST OF THE STRETCH...WHEN MANY LOCATIONS WITHIN THE CWA SHOULD DROP BELOW 40 DEGREES...ALTHOUGH MONDAY MORNING MAY BE EQUALLY COLD AS RADIATIONAL COOLING BECOMES MORE SIGNIFICANT THANKS TO LIGHTER WINDS. SOIL TEMPERATURES ARE STILL QUITE WARM...AND THE WINDS SUNDAY MORNING SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY FROST LOCALLY. HOWEVER...AS WINDS EASE AND SOIL TEMPS DROP WITH THE UPCOMING COLD AIR...FROST IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY MONDAY MORNING. HIGHS FOR THE WKND WILL STRUGGLE TO EVEN REACH 60. ON MONDAY THE CORE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE...SO WHILE TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE BEGINNING OF NOVEMBER...THEY WILL WARM SEVERAL DEGREES FROM WHAT IS ANTICIPATED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. && .AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 12Z...WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG WILL AFFECT THE MYRTLES AND THE INLAND TERMINALS THROUGH 13Z...IMPROVING TO VFR BY 14Z. ILM IS UP AT THIS TIME...BUT COULD HAVE BRIEF FOG/STRATUS AS A LITTLE MIXING BEGINS. HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL GIVE US SOUTHWEST FLOW TODAY...WITH A SLIGHT BACKING TO SOUTH NEAR THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...FOG WILL LIKELY RETURN WITH FAVORABLE MOISTURE PROFILES ONCE AGAIN. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. CHANCE OF EARLY MORNING IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WED AM. SHOWERS/MVFR POSSIBLE LATE WED/EARLY THU AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE CAROLINAS. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 9 AM TUESDAY...LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH OFF THE COAST DRIFTS FARTHER EAST. SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10 TO 15 KT BUT ISOLATED HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST ONCE THE SEA BREEZE SETS UP. SEAS WILL RUN 1 TO 2 FT TODAY. MINIMAL CHANGES TO FORECAST REQUIRED FOR MORNING UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS: AS OF 630 AM TUESDAY...CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH TO PUSH FURTHER EAST AND OFFSHORE FROM THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE SFC PRESSURE PATTERN AND RELAXED GRADIENT WILL YIELD A SSW-SW WIND AROUND 10 KT TODAY...AND MAINLY SW INCREASING TO 10-15 KT WITH FEW GUSTS UP TO 20 KT LATE TONIGHT. FOR THE NEAR SHORE WATERS...THE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTN WILL BACK WINDS TO SSE-S AT 10 TO POSSIBLY 15 KT INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE OVERALL INCREASING SYNOPTIC WINDS AND GUSTS TONIGHT WILL BE THE RESULT OF A LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY JET AND A SLIGHTLY TIGHTENED SFC PG. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN 1 TO 2 FT TODAY...AND BUILD TO NEAR OR AROUND 3 FT TONIGHT. THIS IS IN LINE WITH WAVEWATCH3 AND LOCALLY PRODUCED SWAN NUMBERS. DOMINANT PERIODS WILL RANGE 8 TO 9 SECONDS TODAY WITH AN EASTERLY GROUND SWELL PREVAILING. DOMINANT PERIODS WILL DROP TO 3 TO 5 SECONDS NEARSHORE THIS AFTN...AND FOR ALL WATERS TONIGHT. THIS IN RESPONSE TO THE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTN...FOLLOWED BY INCREASING SW WIND DRIVEN WAVES ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE DRIVES RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SW WINDS OF 10-15 KTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS CAUSING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW...AND THEN NORTH...BY THURSDAY MORNING WITH SPEEDS STILL AT 10-15 KTS. THESE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST ON THURSDAY...BUT INCREASE SLOWLY LATE IN THE PERIOD. SEAS WED/THU WILL BE PRIMARILY WIND-WAVE DRIVEN...WITH A SW WIND CHOP PRODUCING 2-3 FT SEAS WEDNESDAY. AFTER A BRIEF DECREASE IN WAVE AMPLITUDES BEHIND THE FRONT...A NORTHERLY WIND WAVE WILL AMPLIFY DURING THURSDAY...CAUSING SEAS TO RISE TO 2-4 FT LATE. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...N/NW WINDS FRIDAY WILL BE CONSISTENTLY 10-15 KTS...AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN FROM THE NORTH AND A COLD FRONT STALLS OFFSHORE. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT...AND THIS WILL PRODUCE VERY GUSTY WINDS BEHIND IT...AND N/NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB ABOVE 25 KTS MUCH OF SATURDAY...AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS LIKELY. SEAS FRIDAY WILL BE 2-4 FT...WITH THE HIGHEST WAVES CONFINED NEAR THE 20NM BOUNDARY...BUT WILL RISE SIGNIFICANTLY ON SATURDAY TO 4-6 FT. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ017-023- 024-032-033-039-053>056. NC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ087-096- 099-109-110. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDW NEAR TERM...DCH SHORT TERM...JDW LONG TERM...JDW AVIATION...43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
648 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS INTO EARLY THURSDAY...ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. A SECOND AND STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING THE FIRST TRULY COLD AIR OF THE SEASON FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 615 AM TUESDAY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO REMAIN IN EFFECT THRU 9AM FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE ILM CWA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE COASTAL COUNTIES FROM CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD. LATEST SFC OBS TRENDS...LATEST IR 11-3.9 MICRON CHANNEL SATELLITE IMAGERY TRENDS AND THE LATEST HRRR MODEL PROJECTIONS...ALL INDICATE THE AREAS TO WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG ACROSS THE FA TO CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK. THE FOG IS QUITE SHALLOW VIA VARIOUS MODEL SOUNDING DATA IN THE VERTICAL...AND SHOULD ALL DISSIPATE BY 1300Z. A FULL DAYS WORTH OF INSOLATION IS IN STORE FOR THE FA AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS PUSHES OFF THE CAROLINA COASTS DURING TODAY. WITH 500MB HEIGHTS PROGGED IN THE 580S AND CORRESPONDING 1K-5H THICKNESSES IN THE 570S...WIDESPREAD 80S FOR MAX TEMPS TODAY ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. A SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR BY MIDDAY WITH SOME INLAND PENETRATION THIS AFTN...THUS LIMITING THE 80+ DEGREE HIGHS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. INLAND WILL BE A DIFFERENT STORY WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT SW WINDS WITH MIXING IN THE LOW LEVELS LIMITED...MAX TEMPS COULD APPROACH RECORD HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON. RECORD HIGHS TODAY...TUESDAY OCT 28 2014... FLORENCE RECORD IS 86 SET IN 1991. NORTH MYRTLE BEACH RECORD IS 83 SET IN 1991...COULD BE REACHED IF THE SEA BREEZE IS DELAYED. WILMINGTON RECORD IS 87 SET IN 1984...WILL LIKELY FALL SHORT. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS PROGGED TO MOVE FURTHER EAST AND OFFSHORE FROM THE CAROLINA COASTS TONIGHT...ALLOWING INCREASING SW WINDS TO SET UP ALOFT. MODELS HINT AT A 25 TO 30 KT LOW LEVEL JET TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. NAMBUFR HOURLY SOUNDINGS ILLUSTRATE THIS JET AND ALSO THE LIMITED MOISTURE FROM THE SFC UP TO THE BASE OF THIS LOW LEVEL JET. AS A RESULT...SFC FOG FORMATION...IF ANY...WILL BE PATCHY AND AT A MINIMUM. HOWEVER...A LOW STRATUS CLOUD DECK REMAINS POSSIBLE AND THEREFORE WILL NOT GO COMPLETELY CLEAR FOR SKY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. UPSTREAM THIN CI WILL LIKELY SPREAD OVERHEAD...MAINLY ACROSS THE ILM NC COUNTIES. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOP OVER THE GULF STREAM LATE TONIGHT...WITH ANY ISOLATED NOCTURNAL SHRA REMAINING OFFSHORE. FOR TONIGHT...KEPT MINS CLOSER TO THE HIGHER END OF THE AVBL MODEL MOS GUIDANCE...AND WENT EVEN A FEW DEGREES HIER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST DUE TO ACTIVE ONSHORE SSW- SW WINDS HAVING CROSSED SSTS STILL IN THE 70S. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...ONE LAST WARM DAY WEDNESDAY BEFORE A MAJOR PATTERN SHIFT OCCURS ACROSS THE EAST. HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL ONCE AGAIN COMBINE WITH RAISED THICKNESSES BENEATH AN UPPER RIDGE TO DRIVE WARM ADVECTION AND CAUSE MAX TEMPS TO SOAR INTO THE 80S. RECORD HIGHS WILL BE APPROACHED...ESPECIALLY INLAND SINCE COOLER OCEAN TEMPS WILL KEEP HIGHS AT THE COAST LOWER...BUT A WARM DAY EVERYWHERE IS EXPECTED. THIS WILL BE THE LAST OF THE WARMTH FOR SOME TIME HOWEVER. COLD FRONT RACES EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CROSSING OFFSHORE BY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS IS PUSHED BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND ALTHOUGH THE FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY AND PWATS RISE ONLY MARGINALLY...SOME QPF IS EXPECTED WITHIN SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT. WHILE THE RAIN IS NEEDED LOCALLY...THE FORECAST LOW QPF WILL BE ONLY MARGINALLY BENEFICIAL. STILL...THE FRONT SIGNALS A SIGNIFICANT AIR-MASS CHANGE AND TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL STALL JUST OFFSHORE AS A SECOND SHORTWAVE DIVES INTO THE DEVELOPING FULL-LATITUDE TROUGH...AND THIS WILL KEEP AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY...PRIMARILY NEAR THE COAST. IT WILL NOT BE A WASH OUT BY ANY STRETCH...BUT SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED. MINS WED NIGHT AHEAD OF/ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL BE IN THE MID 50S...FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL EXIST ON HALLOWEEN...BUT THE REAL STORY OF THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE FIRST TRULY COLD AIR OF THE SEASON. LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST WILL REASSERT ITSELF AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE ON FRIDAY IS QUITE POTENT...AND ALTHOUGH IT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA...ENOUGH FORCING ALOFT COMBINED WITH SOME SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT BENEATH IT MAY CREATE SOME SHOWERS FOR HALLOWEEN NIGHT. COLUMN BECOMES INCREASINGLY SATURATED FRIDAY EVE AND OVERNIGHT...BUT MOISTURE IS CONFINED BELOW 600MB AND PWATS STAY RATHER LOW. EXPECT MORE CLOUDS THAN SHOWERS...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT QPF FOR HALLOWEEN FESTIVITIES. MORE IMPRESSIVELY HOWEVER...WILL BE THE COLD ADVECTION THAT DEVELOPS BEHIND THIS FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THIS FEATURE BRINGS COLD AIR WITH IT...AS EVIDENCED BY 925MB TEMPS DROPPING 8-10C DURING EARLY SATURDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL DROP TEMPS TO NEAR JANUARY-LEVELS...WITH HIGHS AND LOWS EXPECTED TO BE 10+ DEGREES BELOW CLIMO...THE FIRST COLD OUTBREAK OF THE YEAR. LOWS SUNDAY MORNING ARE FORECAST TO BE THE COLDEST OF THE STRETCH...WHEN MANY LOCATIONS WITHIN THE CWA SHOULD DROP BELOW 40 DEGREES...ALTHOUGH MONDAY MORNING MAY BE EQUALLY COLD AS RADIATIONAL COOLING BECOMES MORE SIGNIFICANT THANKS TO LIGHTER WINDS. SOIL TEMPERATURES ARE STILL QUITE WARM...AND THE WINDS SUNDAY MORNING SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY FROST LOCALLY. HOWEVER...AS WINDS EASE AND SOIL TEMPS DROP WITH THE UPCOMING COLD AIR...FROST IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY MONDAY MORNING. HIGHS FOR THE WKND WILL STRUGGLE TO EVEN REACH 60. ON MONDAY THE CORE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE...SO WHILE TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE BEGINNING OF NOVEMBER...THEY WILL WARM SEVERAL DEGREES FROM WHAT IS ANTICIPATED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 12Z...WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG WILL AFFECT THE MYRTLES AND THE INLAND TERMINALS THROUGH 13Z...IMPROVING TO VFR BY 14Z. ILM IS UP AT THIS TIME...BUT COULD HAVE BRIEF FOG/STRATUS AS A LITTLE MIXING BEGINS. HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL GIVE US SOUTHWEST FLOW TODAY...WITH A SLIGHT BACKING TO SOUTH NEAR THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...FOG WILL LIKELY RETURN WITH FAVORABLE MOISTURE PROFILES ONCE AGAIN. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. CHANCE OF EARLY MORNING IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WED AM. SHOWERS/MVFR POSSIBLE LATE WED/EARLY THU AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE CAROLINAS. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 630 AM TUESDAY...CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH TO PUSH FURTHER EAST AND OFFSHORE FROM THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE SFC PRESSURE PATTERN AND RELAXED GRADIENT WILL YIELD A SSW-SW WIND AROUND 10 KT TODAY...AND MAINLY SW INCREASING TO 10-15 KT WITH FEW GUSTS UP TO 20 KT LATE TONIGHT. FOR THE NEAR SHORE WATERS...THE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTN WILL BACK WINDS TO SSE-S AT 10 TO POSSIBLY 15 KT INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE OVERALL INCREASING SYNOPTIC WINDS AND GUSTS TONIGHT WILL BE THE RESULT OF A LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY JET AND A SLIGHTLY TIGHTENED SFC PG. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN 1 TO 2 FT TODAY...AND BUILD TO NEAR OR AROUND 3 FT TONIGHT. THIS IS IN LINE WITH WAVEWATCH3 AND LOCALLY PRODUCED SWAN NUMBERS. DOMINANT PERIODS WILL RANGE 8 TO 9 SECONDS TODAY WITH AN EASTERLY GROUND SWELL PREVAILING. DOMINANT PERIODS WILL DROP TO 3 TO 5 SECONDS NEARSHORE THIS AFTN...AND FOR ALL WATERS TONIGHT. THIS IN RESPONSE TO THE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTN...FOLLOWED BY INCREASING SW WIND DRIVEN WAVES ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE DRIVES RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SW WINDS OF 10-15 KTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS CAUSING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW...AND THEN NORTH...BY THURSDAY MORNING WITH SPEEDS STILL AT 10-15 KTS. THESE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST ON THURSDAY...BUT INCREASE SLOWLY LATE IN THE PERIOD. SEAS WED/THU WILL BE PRIMARILY WIND-WAVE DRIVEN...WITH A SW WIND CHOP PRODUCING 2-3 FT SEAS WEDNESDAY. AFTER A BRIEF DECREASE IN WAVE AMPLITUDES BEHIND THE FRONT...A NORTHERLY WIND WAVE WILL AMPLIFY DURING THURSDAY...CAUSING SEAS TO RISE TO 2-4 FT LATE. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...N/NW WINDS FRIDAY WILL BE CONSISTENTLY 10-15 KTS...AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN FROM THE NORTH AND A COLD FRONT STALLS OFFSHORE. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT...AND THIS WILL PRODUCE VERY GUSTY WINDS BEHIND IT...AND N/NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB ABOVE 25 KTS MUCH OF SATURDAY...AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS LIKELY. SEAS FRIDAY WILL BE 2-4 FT...WITH THE HIGHEST WAVES CONFINED NEAR THE 20NM BOUNDARY...BUT WILL RISE SIGNIFICANTLY ON SATURDAY TO 4-6 FT. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ017-023- 024-032-033-039-053>056. NC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ087-096- 099-109-110. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDW NEAR TERM...DCH SHORT TERM...JDW LONG TERM...JDW AVIATION...43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
639 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS INTO EARLY THURSDAY...ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. A SECOND AND STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING THE FIRST TRULY COLD AIR OF THE SEASON FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 615 AM TUESDAY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO REMAIN IN EFFECT THRU 9AM FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE ILM CWA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE COASTAL COUNTIES FROM CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD. LATEST SFC OBS TRENDS...LATEST IR 11-3.9 MICRON CHANNEL SATELLITE IMAGERY TRENDS AND THE LATEST HRRR MODEL PROJECTIONS...ALL INDICATE THE AREAS TO WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG ACROSS THE FA TO CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK. THE FOG IS QUITE SHALLOW VIA VARIOUS MODEL SOUNDING DATA IN THE VERTICAL...AND SHOULD ALL DISSIPATE BY 1300Z. A FULL DAYS WORTH OF INSOLATION IS IN STORE FOR THE FA AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS PUSHES OFF THE CAROLINA COASTS DURING TODAY. WITH 500MB HEIGHTS PROGGED IN THE 580S AND CORRESPONDING 1K-5H THICKNESSES IN THE 570S...WIDESPREAD 80S FOR MAX TEMPS TODAY ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. A SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR BY MIDDAY WITH SOME INLAND PENETRATION THIS AFTN...THUS LIMITING THE 80+ DEGREE HIGHS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. INLAND WILL BE A DIFFERENT STORY WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT SW WINDS WITH MIXING IN THE LOW LEVELS LIMITED...MAX TEMPS COULD APPROACH RECORD HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON. RECORD HIGHS TODAY...TUESDAY OCT 28 2014... FLORENCE RECORD IS 86 SET IN 1991. NORTH MYRTLE BEACH RECORD IS 83 SET IN 1991...COULD BE REACHED IF THE SEA BREEZE IS DELAYED. WILMINGTON RECORD IS 87 SET IN 1984...WILL LIKELY FALL SHORT. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS PROGGED TO MOVE FURTHER EAST AND OFFSHORE FROM THE CAROLINA COASTS TONIGHT...ALLOWING INCREASING SW WINDS TO SET UP ALOFT. MODELS HINT AT A 25 TO 30 KT LOW LEVEL JET TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. NAMBUFR HOURLY SOUNDINGS ILLUSTRATE THIS JET AND ALSO THE LIMITED MOISTURE FROM THE SFC UP TO THE BASE OF THIS LOW LEVEL JET. AS A RESULT...SFC FOG FORMATION...IF ANY...WILL BE PATCHY AND AT A MINIMUM. HOWEVER...A LOW STRATUS CLOUD DECK REMAINS POSSIBLE AND THEREFORE WILL NOT GO COMPLETELY CLEAR FOR SKY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. UPSTREAM THIN CI WILL LIKELY SPREAD OVERHEAD...MAINLY ACROSS THE ILM NC COUNTIES. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOP OVER THE GULF STREAM LATE TONIGHT...WITH ANY ISOLATED NOCTURNAL SHRA REMAINING OFFSHORE. FOR TONIGHT...KEPT MINS CLOSER TO THE HIGHER END OF THE AVBL MODEL MOS GUIDANCE...AND WENT EVEN A FEW DEGREES HIER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST DUE TO ACTIVE ONSHORE SSW- SW WINDS HAVING CROSSED SSTS STILL IN THE 70S. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...ONE LAST WARM DAY WEDNESDAY BEFORE A MAJOR PATTERN SHIFT OCCURS ACROSS THE EAST. HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL ONCE AGAIN COMBINE WITH RAISED THICKNESSES BENEATH AN UPPER RIDGE TO DRIVE WARM ADVECTION AND CAUSE MAX TEMPS TO SOAR INTO THE 80S. RECORD HIGHS WILL BE APPROACHED...ESPECIALLY INLAND SINCE COOLER OCEAN TEMPS WILL KEEP HIGHS AT THE COAST LOWER...BUT A WARM DAY EVERYWHERE IS EXPECTED. THIS WILL BE THE LAST OF THE WARMTH FOR SOME TIME HOWEVER. COLD FRONT RACES EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CROSSING OFFSHORE BY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS IS PUSHED BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND ALTHOUGH THE FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY AND PWATS RISE ONLY MARGINALLY...SOME QPF IS EXPECTED WITHIN SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT. WHILE THE RAIN IS NEEDED LOCALLY...THE FORECAST LOW QPF WILL BE ONLY MARGINALLY BENEFICIAL. STILL...THE FRONT SIGNALS A SIGNIFICANT AIR-MASS CHANGE AND TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL STALL JUST OFFSHORE AS A SECOND SHORTWAVE DIVES INTO THE DEVELOPING FULL-LATITUDE TROUGH...AND THIS WILL KEEP AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY...PRIMARILY NEAR THE COAST. IT WILL NOT BE A WASH OUT BY ANY STRETCH...BUT SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED. MINS WED NIGHT AHEAD OF/ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL BE IN THE MID 50S...FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL EXIST ON HALLOWEEN...BUT THE REAL STORY OF THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE FIRST TRULY COLD AIR OF THE SEASON. LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST WILL REASSERT ITSELF AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE ON FRIDAY IS QUITE POTENT...AND ALTHOUGH IT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA...ENOUGH FORCING ALOFT COMBINED WITH SOME SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT BENEATH IT MAY CREATE SOME SHOWERS FOR HALLOWEEN NIGHT. COLUMN BECOMES INCREASINGLY SATURATED FRIDAY EVE AND OVERNIGHT...BUT MOISTURE IS CONFINED BELOW 600MB AND PWATS STAY RATHER LOW. EXPECT MORE CLOUDS THAN SHOWERS...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT QPF FOR HALLOWEEN FESTIVITIES. MORE IMPRESSIVELY HOWEVER...WILL BE THE COLD ADVECTION THAT DEVELOPS BEHIND THIS FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THIS FEATURE BRINGS COLD AIR WITH IT...AS EVIDENCED BY 925MB TEMPS DROPPING 8-10C DURING EARLY SATURDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL DROP TEMPS TO NEAR JANUARY-LEVELS...WITH HIGHS AND LOWS EXPECTED TO BE 10+ DEGREES BELOW CLIMO...THE FIRST COLD OUTBREAK OF THE YEAR. LOWS SUNDAY MORNING ARE FORECAST TO BE THE COLDEST OF THE STRETCH...WHEN MANY LOCATIONS WITHIN THE CWA SHOULD DROP BELOW 40 DEGREES...ALTHOUGH MONDAY MORNING MAY BE EQUALLY COLD AS RADIATIONAL COOLING BECOMES MORE SIGNIFICANT THANKS TO LIGHTER WINDS. SOIL TEMPERATURES ARE STILL QUITE WARM...AND THE WINDS SUNDAY MORNING SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY FROST LOCALLY. HOWEVER...AS WINDS EASE AND SOIL TEMPS DROP WITH THE UPCOMING COLD AIR...FROST IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY MONDAY MORNING. HIGHS FOR THE WKND WILL STRUGGLE TO EVEN REACH 60. ON MONDAY THE CORE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE...SO WHILE TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE BEGINNING OF NOVEMBER...THEY WILL WARM SEVERAL DEGREES FROM WHAT IS ANTICIPATED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. && .AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 06Z...CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS HAVE ALLOWED PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE CWA...PRIMARILY AT THE SOUTHERN COASTAL TERMINALS. VSBYS ACROSS THE ILM SC TERMINALS HAVE DROPPED TO DENSE FOG AND EXPECT THAT TO REMAIN THE CASE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PRE-DAWN TUE HOURS. LOOKING AT DENSE FOG TO FINALLY OVERTAKE KLBT PRIOR TO DAYBREAK TUE...WITH KILM POSSIBLY TO REMAIN DENSE FOG FREE. LATEST HRRR MODEL ILLUSTRATES ALL TERMINALS TO EXPERIENCE VSBY AT OR BELOW 1/2 MILE EARLY THIS AM...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KILM. WILL FOLLOW THE HRRR OUTPUT THIS AM GIVEN ITS OVERALL PERFORMANCE WITH IDENTIFYING THE FOG DEVELOPMENT AND ITS PROGRESSION FROM LAST EVENING. THE FG/BR SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY BETWEEN 12Z AND 1330Z...WITH VFR PREVAILING AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. WITH THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING OFFSHORE...CALM WINDS EARLY AM WILL BECOME SW AROUND 5 KT. EXPECT THE DIURNALLY INDUCED SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP WITH WINDS BACKING TO SSE-SSW AOB 10 KT AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS FOR THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVENING. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. CHANCE OF EARLY MORNING IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WED AM. SHOWERS/MVFR POSSIBLE LATE WED/EARLY THU AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE CAROLINAS. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 630 AM TUESDAY...CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH TO PUSH FURTHER EAST AND OFFSHORE FROM THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE SFC PRESSURE PATTERN AND RELAXED GRADIENT WILL YIELD A SSW-SW WIND AROUND 10 KT TODAY...AND MAINLY SW INCREASING TO 10-15 KT WITH FEW GUSTS UP TO 20 KT LATE TONIGHT. FOR THE NEAR SHORE WATERS...THE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTN WILL BACK WINDS TO SSE-S AT 10 TO POSSIBLY 15 KT INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE OVERALL INCREASING SYNOPTIC WINDS AND GUSTS TONIGHT WILL BE THE RESULT OF A LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY JET AND A SLIGHTLY TIGHTENED SFC PG. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN 1 TO 2 FT TODAY...AND BUILD TO NEAR OR AROUND 3 FT TONIGHT. THIS IS IN LINE WITH WAVEWATCH3 AND LOCALLY PRODUCED SWAN NUMBERS. DOMINANT PERIODS WILL RANGE 8 TO 9 SECONDS TODAY WITH AN EASTERLY GROUND SWELL PREVAILING. DOMINANT PERIODS WILL DROP TO 3 TO 5 SECONDS NEARSHORE THIS AFTN...AND FOR ALL WATERS TONIGHT. THIS IN RESPONSE TO THE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTN...FOLLOWED BY INCREASING SW WIND DRIVEN WAVES ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE DRIVES RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SW WINDS OF 10-15 KTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS CAUSING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW...AND THEN NORTH...BY THURSDAY MORNING WITH SPEEDS STILL AT 10-15 KTS. THESE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST ON THURSDAY...BUT INCREASE SLOWLY LATE IN THE PERIOD. SEAS WED/THU WILL BE PRIMARILY WIND-WAVE DRIVEN...WITH A SW WIND CHOP PRODUCING 2-3 FT SEAS WEDNESDAY. AFTER A BRIEF DECREASE IN WAVE AMPLITUDES BEHIND THE FRONT...A NORTHERLY WIND WAVE WILL AMPLIFY DURING THURSDAY...CAUSING SEAS TO RISE TO 2-4 FT LATE. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...N/NW WINDS FRIDAY WILL BE CONSISTENTLY 10-15 KTS...AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN FROM THE NORTH AND A COLD FRONT STALLS OFFSHORE. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT...AND THIS WILL PRODUCE VERY GUSTY WINDS BEHIND IT...AND N/NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB ABOVE 25 KTS MUCH OF SATURDAY...AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS LIKELY. SEAS FRIDAY WILL BE 2-4 FT...WITH THE HIGHEST WAVES CONFINED NEAR THE 20NM BOUNDARY...BUT WILL RISE SIGNIFICANTLY ON SATURDAY TO 4-6 FT. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ017-023- 024-032-033-039-053>056. NC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ087-096- 099-109-110. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDW NEAR TERM...DCH SHORT TERM...JDW LONG TERM...JDW AVIATION...DCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
916 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...AND AN END OF THE WARM TEMPERATURES. COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH EVEN COLDER CONDITIONS BEHIND ANOTHER COLD FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS ACROSS INDIANA WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY HAS ALREADY GOTTEN IN WESTERN COUNTIES BUT WITH A WEAKENING TREND. MOST PLACES SHOULD STILL GET MEASURABLE RAIN ALTHOUGH IT MAY NOT BE MUCH ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-70. LITTLE INSTABILITY AT THIS POINT BUT HAVE ALLOW FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE SPED UP TIMING OF PRECIPITATION BY SEVERAL HOURS FOLLOWING TRENDS IN RECENT HRRR AND RAP RUNS. SO IT APPEARS THAT BULK OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY AROUND 20Z. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE LAGGING THIS ACTIVITY BY SEVERAL HOURS AND THERE WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY OF STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT BEFORE IT EXITS THE REGION LATE TODAY. APPEARS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE MUCH BEYOND CURRENT VALUES IN THE WEST WITH THICKER CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION MOVING IN. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT READINGS COULD DROP A FEW DEGREES AND THEN REBOUND BETWEEN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ENDING AND THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH. STILL A CHANCE FOR EASTERN SITES TO WARM A LITTLE INTO MIDDAY DESPITE A GOOD DEAL OF MID TO HIGH CLOUD COVER. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. MIN TEMPS WERE LOWERED A FEW DEGREES FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEASTERN CWA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE WEST OF THE AREA...INFLUENCING THE WEATHER ENOUGH TO KEEP CONDITIONS DRY. HOWEVER...THE CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING...ESPECIALLY WITH OCCASIONAL CLOUDS (ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE GREAT LAKES). WITH CALMING WINDS ON THURSDAY MORNING...FROST IS LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY...EVEN THOUGH THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT CLOUDS COULD BE BUILDING IN BY MORNING. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN DECREASED A COUPLE DEGREES HERE AS WELL. THE NEXT BIG CHANGE IN AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE ON FRIDAY...AND IT WILL AGAIN BE A CHANGE IN THE COOLER DIRECTION. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A STRONGER SHORT WAVE WILL ROTATE DOWN ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND PIVOT THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE STRONGEST FORCING WILL GENERALLY REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AND EAST...WE SHOULD STILL AT LEAST SEE SOME SOME SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH THE DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS ABOUT THE NORTHEAST HALF OF OUR FA. STRONG CA WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE...PUSHING DOWN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS LATER IN THE DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA. IT LOOKS LIKE THE COLDEST AIR WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL ONCE THE DEEPER MOISTURE HAS SHIFTED OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND THE COBB METHOD ARE BOTH SUGGESTING THAT THE LOWER LEVELS WILL REMAIN WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP PCPN ALL LIQUID THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THAT BEING SAID...IF THE SHOWERS BECOME A BIT CONVECTIVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...SUPPOSE A FEW WET SNOW FLAKES COULD MIX IN LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST. IN CONTINUED CAA...EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR OUR FIRST WIDESPREAD FREEZE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING DOWN INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING WELL BELOW NORMAL. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES ARE ONLY SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ON SATURDAY. WILL NOT GO QUITE THAT COLD AT THIS POINT BUT WILL NUDGE DOWN HIGHS A BIT...GENERALLY INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S. MODELS ARE A LITTLE FASTER NOW SHIFTING THE HIGH OFF TO THE EAST SO IT MAY BE CENTERED JUST OFF TO OUR EAST BY SUNDAY MORNING. WE SHOULD STILL HAVE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THOUGH AND LIGHT WINDS...SO WOULD EXPECT SATURDAY NIGHT TO BE OUR COLDEST NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD THEN SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST AND WE GET INTO RETURN FLOW. && .AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH THE REGION. THIS FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT. LOOKING AT MANY MODEL SOLUTIONS...IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE APPROXIMATELY A 4 HOUR WINDOW OF PCPN AT ALL TAF SITES. THINK WE WILL SEE AT LEAST SOME MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES WITH SHOWERS. THREAT OF THUNDER IS LOW ENOUGH TO JUST MENTION AS VCTS AT THIS TIME. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHTLY HIGHER THREAT NEAR THE EASTERN TAF SITES OF KCMH/KLCK WHERE THE LATER ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR A LITTLE BIT MORE DIURNAL INSTABILITY. GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND SHIFT TO THE WEST AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION AS WELL...ALLOWING VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN RATHER QUICKLY. FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS THE FRONT CONTINUES EAST/SOUTHEAST...JUST SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED. ON WEDNESDAY...ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL ROTATE EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGION. SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED WITH INCREASING STRATOCUMULUS/CUMULUS CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. .OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HATZOS NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM...HATZOS LONG TERM...JGL AVIATION...HICKMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
655 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...AND AN END OF THE WARM TEMPERATURES. COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH EVEN COLDER CONDITIONS BEHIND ANOTHER COLD FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT WRAPS NORTHEAST AROUND A LARGE MID-LEVEL TROUGH. TRAILING FROM THIS SURFACE LOW IS A LENGTHY COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY EXTENDING THROUGH CHICAGO...ST LOUIS...AND JUST NORTH OF DALLAS. ALTHOUGH THERE IS A MARKED CHANGE IN AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT...THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS IT MOVES EAST. IN FACT...THE WIND SHIFT WILL BECOME LESS DRASTIC WITH TIME...WITH THE EVENTUAL CHANGE IN DIRECTION OVER THE ILN CWA ONLY EXPECTED TO BE SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT IS WEAKENING...AND CONVERGENCE IS SOMEWHAT MODEST...THERE REMAINS STRONG MODEL AGREEMENT THAT RAIN WILL FALL ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TODAY. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...HOWEVER...MAY BE QUITE LIGHT IN SOME PLACES. RECENT HRRR RUNS SUGGEST THAT THE COVERAGE WILL BE THAT OF BROKEN BANDS OF PRECIPITATION. THIS CREATED A CHALLENGE WITH THE POPS...AS THERE MAY BE SOME DRY SPOTS MIXED WITHIN THE AREA OF RAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SINCE MEASURABLE RAIN IS EXPECTED EVERYWHERE...POPS ARE AT 100 PERCENT...BUT QPF AMOUNTS ARE LIGHT. A FAIRLY POTENT LOW-LEVEL JET IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER THE ILN FORECAST AREA...WITH THE KILN VWP SHOWING WINDS OF OVER 50 KNOTS JUST 2000 FEET ABOVE THE GROUND. OCCASIONAL GUSTS ARE REACHING THE SURFACE...AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY AS THE ATMOSPHERE MIXES AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A FEW GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE WARM AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...THE STRONGEST WINDS JUST ALOFT WILL ACTUALLY ALREADY BE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE MORNING. BY LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON...WEAK INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. A MODEL COMPROMISE WOULD SUGGEST AROUND 500 J/KG OF MIXED LAYER CAPE...BUT IN A NARROW PROFILE LIMITED BY RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE LAPSE RATES. SPC SREF PROBABILITIES INDICATE ZERO CHANCE OF CAPE > 1000 J/KG...AND AROUND 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF EVEN GETTING TO 500 J/KG. THUNDER IS EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED AND EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BANDS OF PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THOUGH OBVIOUSLY BECOMING A LITTLE MORE LIKELY AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. ATMOSPHERIC WIND SHEAR IS MARGINALLY IMPRESSIVE IN TERMS OF NUMBERS (45 KNOTS 0-6KM / 30 KNOTS 0-3KM)...BUT NOT IMPRESSIVE AT ALL IN TERMS OF ORIENTATION (UNIDIRECTIONAL AND MOSTLY PARALLEL TO THE FRONT). THIS ADDS UP TO JUST A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...AND LIMITED TO JUST THE NORTHEAST KENTUCKY / SCIOTO VALLEY REGIONS. SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS UNLIKELY...BUT IF STORMS DO DEVELOP IN THIS REGION (AS HRRR/WRF-NMM PROJECTIONS INDICATE)...FORWARD PROPAGATING LINE SEGMENTS COULD PRODUCE STRONG WINDS. WITH THE FRONT COMING INTO THE AREA...IT IS NO SURPRISE THAT THE MAX TEMPERATURE GRID WILL USE A SIGNIFICANT GRADIENT. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN THE MORNING SIGNIFICANTLY AND ANOMALOUSLY WARM...ABOUT AS WARM AS EVER OBSERVED DURING AN OVERNIGHT PERIOD IN LATE OCTOBER. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES (UPPER 70S) ARE EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA...WHERE WARM ADVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE FRONT FOR SEVERAL HOURS. MAX TEMPS MAY VERY WELL BE SET DURING THE MORNING IN THE NORTHWESTERN CWA...WHERE THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLIEST IN THE DAY. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... PRECIPITATION SHOULD END QUICKLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AS A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. MIN TEMPS WERE LOWERED A FEW DEGREES FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEASTERN CWA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE WEST OF THE AREA...INFLUENCING THE WEATHER ENOUGH TO KEEP CONDITIONS DRY. HOWEVER...THE CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING...ESPECIALLY WITH OCCASIONAL CLOUDS (ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE GREAT LAKES). WITH CALMING WINDS ON THURSDAY MORNING...FROST IS LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY...EVEN THOUGH THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT CLOUDS COULD BE BUILDING IN BY MORNING. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN DECREASED A COUPLE DEGREES HERE AS WELL. THE NEXT BIG CHANGE IN AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE ON FRIDAY...AND IT WILL AGAIN BE A CHANGE IN THE COOLER DIRECTION. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A STRONGER SHORT WAVE WILL ROTATE DOWN ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND PIVOT THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE STRONGEST FORCING WILL GENERALLY REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AND EAST...WE SHOULD STILL AT LEAST SEE SOME SOME SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH THE DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS ABOUT THE NORTHEAST HALF OF OUR FA. STRONG CA WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE...PUSHING DOWN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS LATER IN THE DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA. IT LOOKS LIKE THE COLDEST AIR WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL ONCE THE DEEPER MOISTURE HAS SHIFTED OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND THE COBB METHOD ARE BOTH SUGGESTING THAT THE LOWER LEVELS WILL REMAIN WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP PCPN ALL LIQUID THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THAT BEING SAID...IF THE SHOWERS BECOME A BIT CONVECTIVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...SUPPOSE A FEW WET SNOW FLAKES COULD MIX IN LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST. IN CONTINUED CAA...EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR OUR FIRST WIDESPREAD FREEZE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING DOWN INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING WELL BELOW NORMAL. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES ARE ONLY SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ON SATURDAY. WILL NOT GO QUITE THAT COLD AT THIS POINT BUT WILL NUDGE DOWN HIGHS A BIT...GENERALLY INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S. MODELS ARE A LITTLE FASTER NOW SHIFTING THE HIGH OFF TO THE EAST SO IT MAY BE CENTERED JUST OFF TO OUR EAST BY SUNDAY MORNING. WE SHOULD STILL HAVE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THOUGH AND LIGHT WINDS...SO WOULD EXPECT SATURDAY NIGHT TO BE OUR COLDEST NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD THEN SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST AND WE GET INTO RETURN FLOW. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH THE REGION. THIS FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT. LOOKING AT MANY MODEL SOLUTIONS...IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE APPROXIMATELY A 4 HOUR WINDOW OF PCPN AT ALL TAF SITES. THINK WE WILL SEE AT LEAST SOME MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES WITH SHOWERS. THREAT OF THUNDER IS LOW ENOUGH TO JUST MENTION AS VCTS AT THIS TIME. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHTLY HIGHER THREAT NEAR THE EASTERN TAF SITES OF KCMH/KLCK WHERE THE LATER ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR A LITTLE BIT MORE DIURNAL INSTABILITY. GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND SHIFT TO THE WEST AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION AS WELL...ALLOWING VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN RATHER QUICKLY. FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS THE FRONT CONTINUES EAST/SOUTHEAST...JUST SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED. ON WEDNESDAY...ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL ROTATE EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGION. SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED WITH INCREASING STRATOCUMULUS/CUMULUS CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. .OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HATZOS NEAR TERM...HATZOS SHORT TERM...HATZOS LONG TERM...JGL AVIATION...HICKMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
1223 PM CDT Tue Oct 28 2014 ...Update to aviation forecast discussion... .SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight) Issued at 228 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014 Recent water vapor satellite imagery depicts a strong upper wave rotating through the main upper trough across northern Kansas. A few bands of mainly weak radar returns have passed through much of the local area in recent hours via rather strong upper level frontogenesis, but quite dry low levels limiting this to very light amounts (if any) reaching the ground. NAM and RAP indicate both forcing and moisture aloft diminishing through sunrise and these processes seem to be underway per latest IR and radar trends. Surface high pressure was building into the central High Plains with temps there around the freezing mark under mainly clear skies and light winds. It appears radar-produced low-level winds are being impacted by bird migration with speeds likely 10-20kt too high. Cold air advection becomes rather modest today, but much cooler air than recent days will keep highs in the lower to mid 60s in decent mixing. There should be a second round of high cloud in the morning to early afternoon, but the late afternoon and nighttime hours should be clear as the surface high comes into the Central Plains. Expect some modification of the upstream airmass today, where local temps have been well above normal for several days. Lows will be kept above freezing, with slightly lower values likely in protected areas. Have boosted frost wording but rather dry airmass and the very warm ground may keep widespread frost in check. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 228 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014 A cool start expected for Wednesday with morning frost possible across much of the forecast area. Temperatures still should make it to lower to middle 60s as southerly winds slowly move into the area from the west on the back side of the surface high. Some amplified mixing and southerly flow comes through with the clipper along and just to our north early Thursday, bringing mixed overnight low temperatures in the 40s. Despite cooler air moving driving southward into the northern and central plains for Thursday, our area is on the leading edge of the colder air and should mix to another day in the 60s before the colder temperatures make it southward. Again incoming high pressure and northerly winds through the night Thursday night into Friday look to keep lows from tanking too far, but do have lows in the 30s north to near 40 south. Sunshine should help get temperatures into the 50s for Friday afternoon. The surface high moves into the upper Midwest late Friday into early Saturday, and keeps push of colder air over eastern Kansas with lows forecast in the 30s. Another quick return of an upper ridge and southerly surface winds should bring highs back into the 50s for Saturday. How the next round of upper trofs moves out of the Rockies for Sunday into Monday varies within the extended models. Could see some warm air advection showers early Sunday but chances too low for mention this early. Both EC and GFS suggest better chances for rain come later Sunday into Monday and will keep grids as such, but smaller scale and progressive nature of the waves will likely change timing and probabilities as forecast draws closer. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon) Issued at 1223 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014 VFR conditions are expected through the period. Winds will remain light from the northwest under 10 kts, becoming light and variable as high pressure slowly builds into eastern Kansas. Soundings are not favorable for fog development given dry low levels. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...65 LONG TERM...67 AVIATION...53
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
700 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS.../ISSUED AT 418 PM/ STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN ONTARIO WILL LIFT INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE LOW WILL DRAW COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL BE QUITE GUSTY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUING WEDNESDAY. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES BY HALLOWEEN MORNING...SENDING TEMPERATURES PLUNGING AND BRINGING A ROUND OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. && .SHORT TERM.../ISSUED AT 418 PM/...TONIGHT WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH A PROMINENT DRY SLOT BRINGING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...DEEP WRAP- AROUND MOISTURE AND COLDER AIR INTO UPPER MI AND NRN WI WITH 850 MB TEMPS IN THE -1C TO -3C RANGE WAS MOVING TOWARD THE AREA. TONIGHT...EXPECT CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY INCREASE INTO THIS EVENING...PER SATELLITE TRENDS AND MODELS 900-850 MB RH FCST. AS THE COLDER AIR AND DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVE AFT 06Z WITH 850/700 TEMPS DROPPING TO NEAR -4C/-10C...SCT/NMRS LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS FAVORED BY UPSLOPE WRLY FLOW. OVER ERN UPPER MI...WITH WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS FALLING BELOW 1400 FT AGL...A MIX WITH SNOW WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. CLOUDS AND PERSISTENT WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING OFF TOO FAR WITH MIN READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S INLAND AND LOWER 40S CLOSER TO THE GREAT LAKES. WEDNESDAY...PCPN CHANCES PEAK BY MID MORNING WITH COVERAGE DIMINISHING DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE 700 MB THERMAL TROUGH DEPARTS ALONG WITH THE MORE FAVORABLE 850/700 MB MOISTURE AND A WEAK SFC RIDGE BUILDS IN. UNDER CLOUDY SKIES...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY REACH THE MID TO UPPER 40S. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 352 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014 ...MUCH COLDER WEATHER WITH A POSSIBLE MINOR SNOWFALL TO CLOSE OUT OCTOBER... WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...A RELATIVELY TRANQUIL START TO THE FORECAST PERIOD IS EXPECTED AS THE AREA SITS UNDER A BENIGN REGION OF A BROAD MID-LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC. AN INACTIVE UPPER-LEVEL JET PATTERN COMBINED WITH MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES DO NOT SUPPORT ANY LARGE-SCALE LIFT THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...LAKE-H8 DELTA TEMPS OF 12 TO 14C WILL SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LINGERING LAKE EFFECT PRECIP OFF LAKE MI FOR THE NW WIND BELTS. LOW-LEVEL TEMPS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL RAIN INITIALLY IN THE EVENING...BUT A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL CAA AND LOWERING SFC WET BULB TEMPS. THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE SAME...THOUGH ANY SNOW SHOULD TRANSITION BACK TO RAIN FOR ALL AREAS WITH DAYTIME HEATING. OVERALL...IT WILL JUST BE A CLOUDY DAY WITH WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 40S. THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE WEATHER WILL BE IN THE WORKS BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG MID-LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL REACH WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AROUND 03Z FRIDAY AS A SFC LOW BEGINS DEVELOPING OVER THE CWA. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN HOW THE MODELS HANDLE THIS DEVELOPMENT. THE ECMWF SHOWS A STRONGER TROUGH...AND THUS A QUICKER DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW OVER THE STRAITS. THE MODEL SOLUTIONS DO BEGIN TO CONVERGE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH A 1009 MB LOW JUST NORTH OF LAKE ERIE AND A 1035 MB HIGH ACROSS MN. VERY STRONG MID-LEVEL Q-VECTOR CONV PAIRED WITH A POTENT UPPER-LEVEL PV ANOMALY WILL SUPPORT DEEP LIFT ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY MORNING. CONTINUED STRONG LOW-LEVEL CAA AND MID-LEVEL COOLING WILL BRING WET-BULB ZERO TEMPS TO UNDER 1KFT AGL BY 09Z FRI ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND 12Z FRI NEAR THE SHORES. WITH THAT SAID...ACCUMULATING SNOW APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS AT LEAST THE HIGH TERRAIN FRIDAY MORNING. AMPLE LIFT WITHIN THE DGZ WILL SUPPORT DECENT SNOW RATIOS AND MODERATE SNOWFALL RATES. GIVEN THE TIME OF DAY...SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME WARMER ROAD SFC TEMPS AND RESULT IN SOME SLUSH ON LESS TRAVELED ROADS. OVERALL...AROUND AN INCH OF WET SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH A DUSTING POSSIBLY REACHING THE SHORELINES. TO ADD TO THE PRECIP...THE STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS THOUGH THE DAY. THE GRADIENT FLOW WILL BE ASSISTED BY A STRONG ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT DUE TO THE DEEPENING LOW OVER THE AREA. WIDESPREAD 15 TO 25 MPH WINDS LOOK POSSIBLE...WITH SOME GUIDANCE INDICATING GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35 MPH DURING THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL EXIT DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS LOWER MI. FOCUS TURNS TO LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL AS H8 TEMPS AROUND -10C PRODUCE DELTA TEMPS OF AT LEAST 15C. DUE NORTH WINDS THROUGH H8 SHOULD KEEP ALL BUT THE FAR WEST AND FAR EAST CWA CLEAR OF ANY APPRECIABLE LAKE-EFFECT RAIN/SNOW. FRIDAY NIGHT THOUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE SFC HIGH OVER MN FRIDAY WILL REACH THE CWA BY SATURDAY EVENING. AN INFLUX OF MUCH DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR WILL CUTOFF LAKE EFFECT PRECIP FRIDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY NIGHT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE QUITE CHILLY DEPENDING ON HOW QUICK LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS EXIT THE AREA. AM NOT CONFIDENT ON WIDESPREAD CLEARING...BUT SOME AREAS SHOULD SEE ENOUGH REDUCTION IN CLOUD COVER TO ALLOW FOR RAPID COOLING LATE IN THE NIGHT. GIVEN STARTING TEMPS IN THE 30S ON FRIDAY...SHOULD SEE LOWS WELL INTO THE 20S INLAND. IMPROVING CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE SFC RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE CWA AND A MID-LEVEL RIDGE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. SATURDAY NIGHT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE ANOTHER COLD NIGHT...BUT LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL COMMENCE OVERNIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SFC RIDGE. SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE WORKS OVER THE CWA BY SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING QUIET CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MAY BE ENOUGH TO INDUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA...BUT FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS BY WAY OF A JET AXIS AND H5 TROUGH AXIS STAY TO THE NORTHWEST. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 700 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014 AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL WRAP BACK INTO NRN MICHIGAN TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS A REINFORCING COLD FRONT SWEEPS THRU THE AREA. PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERIODICALLY DROP TO MVFR AS SCT/NMRS LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS IMPACT NW LWR MICHIGAN TAF SITES TONIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY. SW WINDS GUSTING TO 15 TO 25 KTS TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TO THE NW ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. && .MARINE.../ISSUED AT 418 PM/ ALTHOUGH PEAK WINDS SHOULD REMAIN JUST SHY OF GALE CRITERIA FOR MOST AREAS TONIGHT...THOUGH AS IS TYPICAL IN THESE SITUATIONS...A COUPLE OF GALE GUSTS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE AT TIMES. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE WATERS. THOSE LIGHT WINDS CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY BUT WITH ANOTHER BURST OF HIGHER WINDS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS SOME VERY COLD AIR DROPS INTO THE REGION. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LHZ345-346-349. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LHZ347-348. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ323-341. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ342-344>346. LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ322. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ321. && $$ AVIATION...MR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 420 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS.../ISSUED AT 418 PM/ STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN ONTARIO WILL LIFT INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE LOW WILL DRAW COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL BE QUITE GUSTY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUING WEDNESDAY. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES BY HALLOWEEN MORNING...SENDING TEMPERATURES PLUNGING AND BRINGING A ROUND OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. && .SHORT TERM.../ISSUED AT 418 PM/...TONIGHT WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH A PROMINENT DRY SLOT BRINGING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...DEEP WRAP- AROUND MOISTURE AND COLDER AIR INTO UPPER MI AND NRN WI WITH 850 MB TEMPS IN THE -1C TO -3C RANGE WAS MOVING TOWARD THE AREA. TONIGHT...EXPECT CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY INCREASE INTO THIS EVENING...PER SATELLITE TRENDS AND MODELS 900-850 MB RH FCST. AS THE COLDER AIR AND DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVE AFT 06Z WITH 850/700 TEMPS DROPPING TO NEAR -4C/-10C...SCT/NMRS LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...ESEPCIALLY FOR LOCATIONS FAVORED BY UPSLOPE WRLY FLOW. OVER ERN UPPER MI...WITH WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS FALLING BELOW 1400 FT AGL...A MIX WITH SNOW WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. CLOUDS AND PERSISTENT WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING OFF TOO FAR WITH MIN READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S INLAND AND LOWER 40S CLOSER TO THE GREAT LAKES. WEDNESDAY...PCPN CHANCES PEAK BY MID MORNING WITH COVERAGE DIMINISHING DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE 700 MB THERMAL TROUGH DEPARTS ALONG WITH THE MORE FAVORABLE 850/700 MB MOISTURE AND A WEAK SFC RIDGE BUILDS IN. UNDER CLOUDY SKIES...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY REACH THE MID TO UPPER 40S. && .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 352 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014 ...MUCH COLDER WEATHER WITH A POSSIBLE MINOR SNOWFALL TO CLOSE OUT OCTOBER... WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...A RELATIVELY TRANQUIL START TO THE FORECAST PERIOD IS EXPECTED AS THE AREA SITS UNDER A BENIGN REGION OF A BROAD MID-LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC. AN INACTIVE UPPER-LEVEL JET PATTERN COMBINED WITH MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES DO NOT SUPPORT ANY LARGE-SCALE LIFT THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...LAKE-H8 DELTA TEMPS OF 12 TO 14C WILL SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LINGERING LAKE EFFECT PRECIP OFF LAKE MI FOR THE NW WIND BELTS. LOW-LEVEL TEMPS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL RAIN INITIALLY IN THE EVENING...BUT A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL CAA AND LOWERING SFC WET BULB TEMPS. THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE SAME...THOUGH ANY SNOW SHOULD TRANSITION BACK TO RAIN FOR ALL AREAS WITH DAYTIME HEATING. OVERALL...IT WILL JUST BE A CLOUDY DAY WITH WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 40S. THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE WEATHER WILL BE IN THE WORKS BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG MID-LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL REACH WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AROUND 03Z FRIDAY AS A SFC LOW BEGINS DEVELOPING OVER THE CWA. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN HOW THE MODELS HANDLE THIS DEVELOPMENT. THE ECMWF SHOWS A STRONGER TROUGH...AND THUS A QUICKER DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW OVER THE STRAITS. THE MODEL SOLUTIONS DO BEGIN TO CONVERGE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH A 1009 MB LOW JUST NORTH OF LAKE ERIE AND A 1035 MB HIGH ACROSS MN. VERY STRONG MID-LEVEL Q-VECTOR CONV PAIRED WITH A POTENT UPPER-LEVEL PV ANOMALY WILL SUPPORT DEEP LIFT ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY MORNING. CONTINUED STRONG LOW-LEVEL CAA AND MID-LEVEL COOLING WILL BRING WET-BULB ZERO TEMPS TO UNDER 1KFT AGL BY 09Z FRI ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND 12Z FRI NEAR THE SHORES. WITH THAT SAID...ACCUMULATING SNOW APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS AT LEAST THE HIGH TERRAIN FRIDAY MORNING. AMPLE LIFT WITHIN THE DGZ WILL SUPPORT DECENT SNOW RATIOS AND MODERATE SNOWFALL RATES. GIVEN THE TIME OF DAY...SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME WARMER ROAD SFC TEMPS AND RESULT IN SOME SLUSH ON LESS TRAVELED ROADS. OVERALL...AROUND AN INCH OF WET SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH A DUSTING POSSIBLY REACHING THE SHORELINES. TO ADD TO THE PRECIP...THE STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS THOUGH THE DAY. THE GRADIENT FLOW WILL BE ASSISTED BY A STRONG ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT DUE TO THE DEEPENING LOW OVER THE AREA. WIDESPREAD 15 TO 25 MPH WINDS LOOK POSSIBLE...WITH SOME GUIDANCE INDICATING GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35 MPH DURING THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL EXIT DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS LOWER MI. FOCUS TURNS TO LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL AS H8 TEMPS AROUND -10C PRODUCE DELTA TEMPS OF AT LEAST 15C. DUE NORTH WINDS THROUGH H8 SHOULD KEEP ALL BUT THE FAR WEST AND FAR EAST CWA CLEAR OF ANY APPRECIABLE LAKE-EFFECT RAIN/SNOW. FRIDAY NIGHT THOUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE SFC HIGH OVER MN FRIDAY WILL REACH THE CWA BY SATURDAY EVENING. AN INFLUX OF MUCH DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR WILL CUTOFF LAKE EFFECT PRECIP FRIDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY NIGHT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE QUITE CHILLY DEPENDING ON HOW QUICK LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS EXIT THE AREA. AM NOT CONFIDENT ON WIDESPREAD CLEARING...BUT SOME AREAS SHOULD SEE ENOUGH REDUCTION IN CLOUD COVER TO ALLOW FOR RAPID COOLING LATE IN THE NIGHT. GIVEN STARTING TEMPS IN THE 30S ON FRIDAY...SHOULD SEE LOWS WELL INTO THE 20S INLAND. IMPROVING CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE SFC RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE CWA AND A MID-LEVEL RIDGE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. SATURDAY NIGHT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE ANOTHER COLD NIGHT...BUT LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL COMMENCE OVERNIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SFC RIDGE. SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE WORKS OVER THE CWA BY SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING QUIET CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MAY BE ENOUGH TO INDUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA...BUT FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS BY WAY OF A JET AXIS AND H5 TROUGH AXIS STAY TO THE NORTHWEST. && .MARINE.../ISSUED AT 418 PM/ ALTHOUGH PEAK WINDS SHOULD REMAIN JUST SHY OF GALE CRITERIA FOR MOST AREAS TONIGHT...THOUGH AS IS TYPICAL IN THESE SITUATIONS...A COUPLE OF GALE GUSTS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE AT TIMES. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE WATERS. THOSE LIGHT WINDS CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY BUT WITH ANOTHER BURST OF HIGHER WINDS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS SOME VERY COLD AIR DROPS INTO THE REGION. && .AVIATION.../ISSUED AT 142 PM/...VALID FOR 18Z TAFS SOME LINGERING MVFR CIGS AT PLN ARE EXPECTED TO GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS BY MID AFTERNOON AS DRY ADVECTION AND MIXING HELPS CLEAR OUT THE LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TIL LATER TONIGHT WHEN CONTINUING COLD AIR ADVECTION RESULTS IN ENOUGH OVERLAKE INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT MVFR CIGS AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF LAKE EFFECT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. EXPECT WRLY WIND GUSTS INTO THE 20-25KT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AIDED BY INCREASING SFC HEATING/MIXING. WINDS MAY STILL A BIT GUSTY AT TIMES THROUGH THE NIGHT DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LHZ345-346-349. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LHZ347-348. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ323-341. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ342-344>346. LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ322. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ321. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
349 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT329 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014 THE SFC LOW HAS MOVED EAST OF REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE MID LVL CENTER OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. INTENSITY OF UPPER LOW AND POSITIONING OF THIS FEATURE HAS ALLOWED A WELL DEFINED LOW LVL TROUGH TO EXIST FROM THE SFC LOW WEST INTO SERN MANITOBA.THE DEEPLY CYCLONIC AND RELATIVELY SATURATED NATURE OF THE REGIONAL ATMOSPHERE HAS PRODUCED EXTENSIVE OVERCAST WITH A FAIRLY WIDE AREA OF PRECIPITATION. PTYPES REMAIN LIQUID OVER THE CWA AT THIS TIME HOWEVER A MIX OF RASN...OR EVEN ALL SNOW...EXISTS JUST ALONG THE BORDER OF THE WRN CWA. SUSPECT SOME WET SNOW IS OCCURRING IN WRN KOOCH COUNTY. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014 TONIGHT...THE LARGE SCALE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP SFC/MID LVL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL KEEP A CANOPY OF LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIP OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT. AS MID LVL LOW MIGRATES EAST...THE SFC TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTH FROM ONTARIO THIS EVENING. PTYPE WILL TRANSITION TO A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW AND PERHAPS A PERIOD OF WET SNOW. VERY TOUGH TO DETERMINE POTENTIAL AMOUNTS THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS IS DUE TO THE MARGINAL BDRY LYR THERMAL PROFILES AND DEPENDENCY OF DIABATIC COOLING/SNOW PRODUCTION UPON AREAS OF ENHANCED VERTICAL MOTION. HI-RES PTYPE OUTPUT FROM HRRR IS RATHER SLOW TO MAKE THE TRANSITION TO FROZEN PRECIP OVERNIGHT. THE NAM12/RUC13 ARE FASTER IN COOLING THE NEAR SFC LAYER SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT THAT GREAT. GIVEN THAT SNOW HAS BEEN OCCURRING JUST WEST OF THE REGION DURING THE DIURNAL WARM PERIOD...WOULD THINK THAT WITH ADVENT OF NOCTURNAL BDRY LYR COOLING...WE SHOULD SEE THE TRANSITION OCCUR IN MOST OF NE MN ZONES BY MID/LATE EVENING. SOME LOCATIONS MAY SEE UP TO AN INCH ON ELEVATED DECKS OR GRASSY SURFACES. THE PROBABILISTIC PRODUCTS FROM SREF AND NARRE-TL FAVOR THE ARROWHEAD AND THE GOGEBIC RANGE FOR SOME ACCUMULATION. GUSTY WINDS WILL REMAIN BASED ON BUFKIT MOMENTUM PROFILES SUPPORTED BY THE PRESENCE OF A FAIRLY LARGE SFC PRESS GRADIENT OVER THE CWA UNTIL EARLY MORNING. TOMORROW...GRADUAL CLEARING OCCURS FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE SFC/MID LVL LOWS SHIFT WELL EAST OF THE REGION. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER DRYING IS FCST...MAJORITY OF NWP SUGGESTS RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN A SHALLOW LAYER NEAR 2K TO 3K FT. WILL MAINTAIN A MOSTLY CLOUDY FCST FOR NOW. PRECIP SHOULD EVENTUALLY DIMINISH EXCEPT OVER ERN EDGE OF CWA. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014 A WEAK MID LEVEL S/W AND ASSOCIATED INVERTED SFC TROUGH WILL TRACK EWD THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST WED NIGHT/THUR MORNING AND PRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW THROUGH THE REGION. A MORE POTENT UPPER S/W WILL DROP IN FROM THE NORTH AND USHER IN ADDITIONAL HIGHER CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS THUR AFTERNOON...EVENTUALLY CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW THUR NIGHT AND FRI MORNING. THE TRACK OF THE LOW...FROM NRN MANITOBA SEWD THROUGH WRN ONTARIO AND INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES WILL ALLOW THE BULK OF THE PRECIP TO FALL ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE LARGE SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE WILL OCCUR OVER WRN ONTARIO...CLIPPING THE ARROWHEAD AND IN THROUGH NRN WI AND EWD INTO THE U.P. OF MICH. A SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION AS THE S/W MOVES THROUGH AND MODIFIES THERMAL PROFILES ENOUGH TO CHANGE THE RAIN SHOWERS OVER TO SNOW LATE THURSDAY...AND ESPECIALLY THUR NIGHT/FRI MORNING. COULD SEE AROUND 1 INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATE OVER THE ARROWHEAD...WITH TRACE AMTS AROUND THE TWIN PORTS. THE AREA EXPECTING TO SEE THE MOST WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ACROSS THE SNOW BELT REGION OF ASHLAND AND IRON COUNTIES WHERE LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL ALLOW A QUICK 1-2 INCHES TO FALL DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FAVORABLE NORTH WINDS AND STEEP/MOIST BL LAPSE RATES WILL ALL CONTRIBUTE TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER SNOW AMTS IN THIS AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN QUICKLY FROM THE WEST ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST DURING THE REST OF THE DAY FRIDAY AND FURTHER EWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES FRI NIGHT/SAT MORNING. ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS HIGH...A SWLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE REGION AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE ROCKIES DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. WILL START TO SEE THE INFLUENCE FROM THIS NEXT SYSTEM FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN. THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SLIGHTLY EARLY IN THE PERIOD...AND THEN WARM GRADUALLY THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL DROP INTO THE 30S...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND SLIGHTLY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 40S AND LOWS IN THE 30S. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014 AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHEASTERN ONTARIO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THIS PERIOD. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS THE LOW SLOWLY PULLS EASTWARD. POCKETS OF RAIN OR DRIZZLE WILL AFFECT THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. AREAS OF DEEPER SATURATION AND COOLER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL RESULT IN A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AT TIMES AT HIB AND INL. A CHANGE TO ALL SNOW IS MOST LIKELY AT INL...RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS AS THE SNOW MOVES THROUGH. CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION TIMING AND TYPE DECREASES AFTER 22Z...NECESSITATING IN SWITCH BACK TO PREVAILING VCSH. COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO POUR INTO THE REGION AS PRECIPITATION ENDS TONIGHT...RESULTING IN CIGS LOWERING INTO IFR CATEGORIES OVERNIGHT. THERE SEEMS TO BE SUFFICIENT MIXING TO MAINTAIN WIND GUSTS AT ALL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT...WITH WINDS EASING WEDNESDAY MORNING. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 33 41 33 43 / 60 10 10 20 INL 31 39 30 40 / 70 10 10 30 BRD 31 43 33 47 / 20 0 10 10 HYR 34 44 32 47 / 50 10 10 30 ASX 35 44 33 47 / 60 10 10 30 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...NONE. WI...NONE. LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ121- 146>148. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ144-145. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ140>143. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CANNON SHORT TERM...CANNON LONG TERM...HUYCK AVIATION...HUYCK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS DULUTH MN
1259 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014 SEE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW... UPDATE ISSUED AT 1114 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014 BASIC FCST SCENARIO REMAINS LEGITIMATE ALTHOUGH SOME NUANCES EXIST WITHIN THE LOW LVL THERMAL PROFILES AND RESULTING PTYPE. PRECIP HAS MIXED/CHANGED TO SNOW AT KFGN/KROX/KRRT AND UPSTREAM INTO ADJACENT SERN MANITOBA/WRN ONTARIO. THIS APPEARS TO BE CO LOCATED WITH SRN EDGE OF ENHANCED COLOR CURVE IN LATEST IMAGERY. CONCERN IS THAT MORE EXTENSIVE SNOWFALL MAY MATERIALIZE OVER NWRN/WRN CWA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOWEVER GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN MDL SNDGS AND DIURNAL IMPACT ON PTYPE...AM NOT READY TO PUSH MUCH MORE SIG ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL YET. WILL MONITOR REPORTS NW OF CWA NEXT FEW HRS. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014 AT 330 AM...RAIN CONTINUED TO PUSH NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD REGION BUT THE OVERALL TREND HAS BEEN TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. MUCH OF THE REGION WAS NOW IN A DRY SLOT WRAPPING INTO THE DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...WHICH IS CURRENTLY STILL IN TRANSITION FROM HAVING THE TWO UPPER LEVEL LOWS PHASE INTO ONE. RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS THE DAY WEARS ON...STARTING IN NORTH CENTRAL MN AND THEN SPREADING SOUTH AND EASTWARD THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE CWA. THE 4 KM NMM WRF SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY AS WELL AS THE HRRR ALL SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO. WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TODAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT A POSSIBLE MIX IN THE FAR NORTH FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA INTO TONIGHT. NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION BUT COULD SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION ON GRASSY AREAS NORTH. PRECIPITATION SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE TONIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER DEVELOPING ON WEDNESDAY BUT ALSO THINK THE LOW CLOUDS WILL BE FAIRLY PERSISTENT AND WIDESPREAD. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014 A SUBTLE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND TUESDAY EVENING...WHILE A SHORTWAVE AND LOW WILL PASS JUST TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE NORTHLAND. THIS SHORTWAVE AND TROUGH COULD BRING LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE FAR SW FORECAST AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY WITH A LARGE SURFACE HIGH FOLLOWING IN ITS WAKE. THE COOL NORTHERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN CLOUDY WEATHER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING WITH CHANCES OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS NEAR THE GOGEBIC RANGE COULD RESULT IN UP TO A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOWFALL. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHLAND FRIDAY. HALLOWEEN LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE ONE OF THE COLDEST DAYS THIS FALL SO FAR...BUT IT SHOULD BE SUNNY WITH LIGHT WINDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S OVER THE NORTH TO NEAR 40 DEGREES OVER THE SOUTH. THERE WILL BE A WARMING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND AS SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING SURFACE HIGH AND A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE WESTERN UNITED STATES SHIFTS IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. THERE ARE LOW CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014 AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHEASTERN ONTARIO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THIS PERIOD. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS THE LOW SLOWLY PULLS EASTWARD. POCKETS OF RAIN OR DRIZZLE WILL AFFECT THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. AREAS OF DEEPER SATURATION AND COOLER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL RESULT IN A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AT TIMES AT HIB AND INL. A CHANGE TO ALL SNOW IS MOST LIKELY AT INL...RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS AS THE SNOW MOVES THROUGH. CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION TIMING AND TYPE DECREASES AFTER 22Z...NECESSITATING IN SWITCH BACK TO PREVAILING VCSH. COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO POUR INTO THE REGION AS PRECIPITATION ENDS TONIGHT...RESULTING IN CIGS LOWERING INTO IFR CATEGORIES OVERNIGHT. THERE SEEMS TO BE SUFFICIENT MIXING TO MAINTAIN WIND GUSTS AT ALL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT...WITH WINDS EASING WEDNESDAY MORNING. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 44 33 41 33 / 70 60 10 10 INL 41 31 39 30 / 70 70 10 10 BRD 44 31 43 33 / 40 20 0 10 HYR 48 34 44 32 / 60 50 10 10 ASX 49 35 44 33 / 70 60 10 10 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...NONE. WI...NONE. LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ121- 146>148. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ144-145. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ140>143. && $$ UPDATE...CANNON SHORT TERM...DAP LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI AVIATION...HUYCK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS DULUTH MN
1123 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1114 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014 BASIC FCST SCENARIO REMAINS LEGITIMATE ALTHOUGH SOME NUANCES EXIST WITHIN THE LOW LVL THERMAL PROFILES AND RESULTING PTYPE. PRECIP HAS MIXED/CHANGED TO SNOW AT KFGN/KROX/KRRT AND UPSTREAM INTO ADJACENT SERN MANITOBA/WRN ONTARIO. THIS APPEARS TO BE CO LOCATED WITH SRN EDGE OF ENHANCED COLOR CURVE IN LATEST IMAGERY. CONCERN IS THAT MORE EXTENSIVE SNOWFALL MAY MATERIALIZE OVER NWRN/WRN CWA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOWEVER GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN MDL SNDGS AND DIURNAL IMPACT ON PTYPE...AM NOT READY TO PUSH MUCH MORE SIG ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL YET. WILL MONITOR REPORTS NW OF CWA NEXT FEW HRS. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014 AT 330 AM...RAIN CONTINUED TO PUSH NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD REGION BUT THE OVERALL TREND HAS BEEN TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. MUCH OF THE REGION WAS NOW IN A DRY SLOT WRAPPING INTO THE DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...WHICH IS CURRENTLY STILL IN TRANSITION FROM HAVING THE TWO UPPER LEVEL LOWS PHASE INTO ONE. RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS THE DAY WEARS ON...STARTING IN NORTH CENTRAL MN AND THEN SPREADING SOUTH AND EASTWARD THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE CWA. THE 4 KM NMM WRF SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY AS WELL AS THE HRRR ALL SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO. WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TODAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT A POSSIBLE MIX IN THE FAR NORTH FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA INTO TONIGHT. NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION BUT COULD SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION ON GRASSY AREAS NORTH. PRECIPITATION SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE TONIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER DEVELOPING ON WEDNESDAY BUT ALSO THINK THE LOW CLOUDS WILL BE FAIRLY PERSISTENT AND WIDESPREAD. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014 A SUBTLE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND TUESDAY EVENING...WHILE A SHORTWAVE AND LOW WILL PASS JUST TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE NORTHLAND. THIS SHORTWAVE AND TROUGH COULD BRING LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE FAR SW FORECAST AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY WITH A LARGE SURFACE HIGH FOLLOWING IN ITS WAKE. THE COOL NORTHERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN CLOUDY WEATHER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING WITH CHANCES OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS NEAR THE GOGEBIC RANGE COULD RESULT IN UP TO A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOWFALL. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHLAND FRIDAY. HALLOWEEN LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE ONE OF THE COLDEST DAYS THIS FALL SO FAR...BUT IT SHOULD BE SUNNY WITH LIGHT WINDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S OVER THE NORTH TO NEAR 40 DEGREES OVER THE SOUTH. THERE WILL BE A WARMING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND AS SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING SURFACE HIGH AND A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE WESTERN UNITED STATES SHIFTS IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. THERE ARE LOW CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 641 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014 A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL LIFT INTO NE ONTARIO TODAY. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS OVER NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE COULD BE BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CIGS AND/OR VSBYS FROM -RA OR -RASN. GUSTY W TO WNW WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 44 33 41 33 / 70 60 10 10 INL 41 31 39 30 / 70 70 10 10 BRD 44 31 43 33 / 40 20 0 10 HYR 48 34 44 32 / 60 50 10 10 ASX 49 35 44 33 / 70 60 10 10 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...NONE. WI...NONE. LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ121- 146>148. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ144-145. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ140>143. && $$ UPDATE...CANNON SHORT TERM...DAP LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
318 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014 CLOUD TRENDS THROUGH TONIGHT AND A WARMER DAY ON WEDNESDAY HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. THE RAP AND HRRR HAVE HANDLED THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS WELL THROUGHOUT TODAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND WILL FOLLOW THEIR MOST RECENT ITERATIONS FOR CLOUD COVER THROUGH TONIGHT...NAMELY THEIR 18-19 UTC RUNS. STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY ERODE FAR SOUTHWEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON...NOT CLEARING THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY UNTIL CLOSER TO 12 UTC WEDNESDAY MORNING. DID ADD AREAS OF FOG ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STRATUS WHERE WINDS BECOME CALM. WILL ALSO CONTINUE THE PATCHY DRIZZLE MENTION DOWNSTREAM OF LAKE SAKAKAWEA EARLY THIS EVENING WITH STREAMERS CONTINUING TO COME OFF THE LAKE. RETURN FLOW COMMENCES TONIGHT ACROSS THE WEST AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA. THIS FRONT WILL PROPAGATE THROUGH THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 50S...WITH POSSIBLY A FEW READINGS IN THE 60S ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT...GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AREA WIDE AS A WEAK IMPULSE INTERACTS WITH THE FRONT. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014 A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS A SLOW MODERATING TREND GETS UNDERWAY...FOLLOWED BY A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. MUCH COLDER AIR CAN BE EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SNOWSHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL. A HEADLINE MAY BE WARRANTED IN THE FUTURE IF THE SNOW/WINDS MAINTAIN CONSISTENCY IN FUTURE RUNS. AN EXITING LOW PRESSURE WEDNESDAY EVENING OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WILL PROVIDE FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY BEFORE ENDING. THEREAFTER...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DOMINATE WITH A DRY PATTERN...SHIFTING FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THURSDAY INTO NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY NIGHT...AND THEN EAST OF NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY. THE WARMEST POCKET OF AIR SLIDES THROUGH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT VIA A SOUTHWEST FLOW...AHEAD OF A SHARP COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM WHICH PASSES THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. IN DOING SO...EXPECT A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE UPPER/SURFACE LOW SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...TAKING IT ON A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TRACK FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND THEN ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA. THE GEM TAKES A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK...MOVING IT FROM SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA RESULTING IN A MORE BROAD/WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EVENT. ALL SOLUTIONS HOWEVER SHOW STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW SUNDAY INTO MONDAY IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN AREA OF SNOWSHOWERS. REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN BLOWING/FALLING SNOW MAY BE THE GREATEST IMPACT AND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED IN FUTURE RUNS FOR POSSIBLE HEADLINES. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014 MVFR STRATUS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE EVENING...SLOWLY ERODING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STRATUS. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS WILL CONTINUE CENTRAL THIS AFTERNOON WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FLURRIES. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...AYD LONG TERM...KS AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
329 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014 .DISCUSSION... COLD FRONT IS JUST TO THE NW OF THE CWA AT THIS TIME. PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONT HAS LOST ORGANIZATION THROUGH THE DAY. SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS THE EXTENT OF THE PRECIP AND IS CONFINED TO THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF OUR COUNTIES FOR NOW. FORCING IS WEAK ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND THE LATEST HRRR DOES NOT INDICATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF STRENGTHENING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. SO...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE HRRR WHICH CONTINUES TO JUST SHOW LIGHT TO MODERATE SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR TONIGHT. WILL LOWER QPF AMOUNTS IN THE GRIDS AND GENERALLY UTILIZE 40-60 PERCENT POPS. WILL INCLUDE JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER. STILL...SOME MINIMAL INSTABILITIES ARE IN PLACE. FOLLOWING A FEW RESIDUAL SHOWERS IN THE MORNING ACROSS OUR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES...WE SHOULD SEE DECREASING CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND THIS LATEST COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL ONLY USHER IN NEAR NORMAL VALUES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. IN THE EXT FCST...THE WEATHER LOOKS A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING THAN 24 HRS AGO. AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS LOOKING AS THOUGH IT WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST AND MOVE ACROSS EASTERN TN BY THIS WEEKEND. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHERLY ON FRIDAY ACROSS TN AND WILL BEGIN TO USHER IN COOLER TO COLDER TEMPERATURES. HERE IN THE MID STATE...WE WILL BE ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND THERE WILL BE SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ON FRIDAY AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. GFS ACTUALLY SUPPORTS A FEW FLURRIES FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLATEAU. BUT...GIVEN THAT THIS IS ONLY RUN #1 OF GFS CONTINUITY...WILL ONLY MENTION COLDER TEMPS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. FURTHERMORE...EURO IS FURTHER EAST WITH THE TRACK AND MOISTURE. SATURDAY LOOKS RATHER COLD WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S WITH AN APPRECIABLE NORTHERLY BREEZE AS WELL. SO...LOOKING COLD AND BRISK ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE WARM WEATHER WE HAVE HAD. OTHERWISE...SFC HIGH WILL BE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY ON SUNDAY MORNING. MEX IS TRENDING TOWARD COLDER AND A FREEZE POTENTIAL IS CERTAINLY IN PLACE. FOR NOW...WILL INCLUDE PATCHY/AREAS OF FROST ACROSS THE AREA. LOOK FOR A WARMING TREND TO OCCUR ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... NASHVILLE 50 67 39 63 / 40 10 0 0 CLARKSVILLE 46 66 37 62 / 40 05 0 0 CROSSVILLE 50 62 37 58 / 60 20 0 0 COLUMBIA 51 68 39 65 / 50 10 0 0 LAWRENCEBURG 51 68 39 65 / 60 20 0 0 WAVERLY 47 67 38 63 / 40 10 0 0 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 21
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
311 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014 .DISCUSSION... THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTH TEXAS AREA. PATCHES OF LOWER CLOUDS ARE EVIDENT ON SATELLITE...BUT RADAR CURRENTLY ONLY SHOWS WEAK SHOWER ACTIVITY NEAR GILMER IN EAST TEXAS. HRRR STILL SHOWS SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING SO HAVE LEFT LOW POPS IN THAT AREA. MODERATE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S/LOW 80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S/60S THROUGH FRIDAY. THEN THE NEXT SHOT OF REINFORCING COLD AIR PUSHES IN ON FRIDAY. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW LOWS TO DROP INTO THE 40S NORTH AND LOW 50S FAR SOUTH. SATURDAY HIGHS WILL SIT IN THE 60S IN ALL BUT THE SOUTH AND WEST WHERE LOW 70S ARE EXPECTED. IN THE EXTENDED...GFS/ECMWF ADVERTISE A GOOD RAIN EVENT MONDAY/TUESDAY...WITH THE GFS ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. ECMWF CUTS THIS MOISTURE OFF IN MEXICO. HAVE HIGH CHANCE POPS DURING THAT TIME FRAME DUE TO MODEL AGREEMENT...BUT WILL RESERVE JUDGMENT ON THE TROPICAL MOISTURE. IF IT OCCURS...QPF MAY BE MUCH HIGHER THAN IF IT GETS TRAPPED IN MEXICO. 84 && .AVIATION... /ISSUED 1251 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014/ POST-FRONTAL LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SCATTER OUT ACROSS THE METROPLEX SITE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR MIXES DOWN. TEMPORARY MVFR CEILINGS ARE STILL LIKELY AT ALL METRO TERMINALS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AT ALL NORTH TEXAS TAF SITES AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. A NORTH WIND WILL PREVAIL BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AT SPEEDS BETWEEN 7 AND 13 KNOTS. WACO SHOULD SEE A WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTH/NORTHWEST BY 20Z. 79 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 56 77 53 77 53 / 10 0 0 10 5 WACO, TX 57 77 53 78 55 / 20 10 5 10 5 PARIS, TX 52 74 46 73 49 / 20 5 5 10 5 DENTON, TX 49 76 47 76 49 / 5 0 0 10 5 MCKINNEY, TX 51 76 46 75 50 / 10 5 0 10 5 DALLAS, TX 56 77 55 76 55 / 10 0 0 10 5 TERRELL, TX 55 76 51 76 52 / 20 5 5 10 5 CORSICANA, TX 58 76 52 76 53 / 30 20 5 10 5 TEMPLE, TX 60 77 55 79 55 / 20 20 10 10 5 MINERAL WELLS, TX 51 77 49 77 50 / 5 0 0 10 5 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$