Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 10/28/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RENO NV
1049 PM PDT SAT OCT 25 2014
.UPDATE...
WINDS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE AROUND THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.
THE LATEST CHECK OF THE LAKE TAHOE BUOYS SHOWED WINDS IN THE 10 TO
15 MPH RANGE. GIVEN THESE DECREASING WINDS WE WILL ALLOW THE LAKE
WIND ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 11 PM. ELSEWHERE GUSTY WINDS TO NEAR 35
MPH ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN THE MORE WIND PRONE LOCATIONS EAST OF
THE SIERRA LATE THIS EVENING. THESE WILL WILL DECREASE AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT.
20
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 755 PM PDT SAT OCT 25 2014/
UPDATE...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING INTO CA NOW. THE SFC FRONT HAS PASSED
THROUGH MOST OF THE REGION AND WE HAVE GOTTEN INTO THE COLDER AIR.
WITH THE FRONT TO EAST MOST OF OUR STRONGEST WINDS HAVE DECREASED
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. A PLUME OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE UPPER
TROUGH IS STILL CREATING SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER
NRN CA. UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES FROM THE TAHOE BASIN
NORTHWARD IS HELPING DEVELOP HEAVIER PCPN IN SOME SPOTS BUT IT IS
NOT WIDESPREAD. UNDER THE HEAVIEST PCPN SNOW LEVELS ARE LIKELY TO
DROP TO AROUND 6500 FEET LATER TONIGHT WITH AN INCH OR TWO OF
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE AT THE HIGHER PASSES FROM ECHO SUMMIT
NORTH.
WITH THE DECREASE IN WINDS HAVE OPTED TO CANCEL THE WIND
ADVISORIES EARLY...EXCEPT THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR TAHOE. THERE
THE BUOYS ARE STARTING TO INCREASE AGAIN. THIS WILL RUN THROUGH 11
PM. FOR PYRAMID LAKE THE OBSERVATION AT ANAHO ISLAND STILL SHOWS
GUSTS CLOSE TO 50 MPH...BUT THE LAKE IS CLOSED AFTER SUNSET SO
WILL NOT ISSUE A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS. THERE WILL LIKELY BE
A FEW WIND PRONE AREAS WITH GUSTS TOPPING 45 MPH FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...BUT THESE WILL BE VERY ISOLATED IN NATURE.
RH VALUES ARE INCREASING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS WELL. ALTHOUGH
WIND GUSTS IN SOME AREAS MAY CONTINUE ABOVE 30 MPH...THE STRONGEST
GUSTS HAVE PASSED AND THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY WILL SPELL AN END
TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THEREFORE...THE RED FLAG WILL
BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 8 PM. 20
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 PM PDT SAT OCT 25 2014/
SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INLAND TONIGHT, BRINGING GUSTY WINDS ALONG
WITH LIGHT RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. COOLER CONDITIONS WITH A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED EARLY SUNDAY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.
MILD AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN NEXT WEEK, WITH A CHANCE OF
RAIN AND SNOW WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES BY NEXT WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM...
COLD FRONTAL PRECIPITATION BAND HAS MOVED INTO WESTERN NEVADA AND
THE EASTERN SIERRA AROUND LAKE TAHOE AND ALPINE COUNTY. THE
PRECIPITATION HAS FALLEN APART AS PROGGED BY MODELS NORTH OF RENO.
HOWEVER, PRECIPITATION HELD TOGETHER BETTER THAN EXPECTED FOR RENO
SOUTH TO MINDEN MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 395. NEAR THE
CREST WEST OF LAKE TAHOE THE PRECIPITATION WAS HEAVY ENOUGH TO
BRIEFLY DRIVE SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO BETWEEN 6500 AND 7000 FEET AND
CAUSE SLUSHY ACCUMULATIONS ON INTERSTATE 80 (THAT HAS SINCE MELTED).
OUTSIDE OF THE BRIEF LOWERING, SNOW LEVELS ARE RUNNING BETWEEN
ABOUT 7500 AND 8500 FEET. AS SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR ALOFT FILTERS IN
WITH THIS SYSTEM`S TROUGH AXIS TONIGHT AND PRECIPITATION TURNS
SHOWERY SNOW LEVELS WILL SLOWLY FALL TO AS LOW AS 6000-6500 FEET
ALTHOUGH MOST PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF BY THEN. IN ANY CASE,
BURSTS OF SNOW SHOWERS COULD CERTAINLY CAUSE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
AND SLICK ROADS AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS FROM TAHOE NORTH OVERNIGHT.
WIND-WISE, SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO BETWEEN 40
AND 60 MPH WERE WIDESPREAD TODAY. WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO FALL OFF
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BUT ARE STILL HOWLING OUT IN THE BASIN AND
RANGE WITH STRONG WEST WINDS DRIVING A LARGE AREA OF DUST OFF THE
CARSON SINK (EASTERN PERSHING/CHURCHILL COUNTIES).
FOR TONIGHT, THERE IS ONE MORE DISTURBANCE ROUNDING THE BASE OF
THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH. AT THIS TIME, IT IS FIRING UP NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND EVEN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA.
THIS IMPULSE WILL MOVE THROUGH FAR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS
EVENING AND FIRE UP ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS FOR NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA
AND WESTERN NEVADA, MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. THIS COULD
BRING LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE 6500-7000 FEET. ELSEWHERE,
RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT. WINDS
WILL REMAIN A BIT GUSTY FOR MANY AREAS THIS EVENING BEFORE DYING
OFF CONSIDERABLY FOR VALLEYS AS A WEAK SURFACE HIGH BUILD IN.
SUNDAY MORNING A FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS MAY LINGER WELL NORTH OF
I-80 BEFORE AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO SLOWLY BUILD OVERHEAD THROUGH
MONDAY. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A BIT BELOW AVERAGE AS
A COOL SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE GREAT BASIN. SNYDER
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION AT THE BEGINNING ON THE LONG TERM
ON TUESDAY. RATHER QUIET WEATHER OVERALL TUESDAY-THURSDAY. ONE
EXCEPTION IS POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT WARM ADVECTION PRECIP NORTH OF
SUSANVILLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
FILAMENT OF MOISTURE BREAKING OFF A MORE SIGNIFICANT ATMOSPHERIC
RIVER OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THIS
PRECIP IS ONLY MEDIUM - MAINLY DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN HOW FAR
SOUTH THE MOISTURE PLUME WILL GET.
MAIN INTEREST IN THE LONG TERM IS INCREASING LIKELIHOOD OF AN
APPRECIABLE TROF MOVING INTO CA/NV FRIDAY-SATURDAY. THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ECMWF/GFS BUT OVERALL THE BIG PICTURE
PATTERN IS SIMILAR, LEADING TO MEDIUM FORECAST CONFIDENCE WHICH AT
THIS LEAD TIME ISN`T BAD. NAEFS ANOMALY CHARTS ALSO PICKING UP ON
THIS TROUGH WHICH HELPS INCREASE CONFIDENCE IN THE PATTERN
VERIFYING. OVERALL CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE MINIMAL. CHANCE OF
RAIN FRIDAY-SATURDAY WITH SNOW LEVELS FALLING FROM 10KFT TO 6-7KFT.
QPF/TIMING ARE THE MAIN UNCERTAINTIES: ECMWF LIGHTER QPF BUT FASTER
WHILE GFS HAS SOME PERIODS OF HEAVY PRECIP IN THE SIERRA BUT IT`S
SLOWER. NO REASON TO FAVOR ONE OUTCOME OVER THE OTHER RIGHT NOW.
STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY GIVEN
SFC GRADIENT AND 700MB FLOW 40-55 KTS DEPICTED IN THE GFS; TO A
LESSER EXTENT IN THE ECMWF. CS
AVIATION...
NOT EXACTLY THE MOST PLEASANT DAY FOR FLYING WITH STRONG WINDS AND
SHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGH MID-EVENING. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE
TAFS IS MEDIUM.
WINDS HAVE BEEN SOMEWHAT ERRATIC AROUND RNO/CXP WITH PRECIP SPILLING
OVER AND SWITCHING WIND DIRECTION AT SFC TO W/NW. S/SW WINDS IN
FOOTHILLS YIELDING LLWS WHICH HAS BEEN REPORTED BY RECENT ARRIVALS
INTO RNO. NOT SURE HOW LONG THIS WESTERLY WIND WILL LAST SO HAVE
USED TEMPO IN TAF. THE NEXT UNCERTAINTY IS POTENTIAL FOR MOUNTAIN
WAVE AND DOWNSLOPE WIND ENHANCEMENTS AT RNO/CXP FROM 23Z-03Z AS
WINDS ALOFT TURN MORE W/SW. IF THIS HAPPENS WINDS AT THE SURFACE
WOULD TURN MORE SSE BUT JUST OFF THE SURFACE STRONG SW WINDS OF
50KTS WOULD RESULT IN APPRECIABLE LLWS CONTINUING AT RNO/CXP. HRRR
SHOWING THIS SIGNATURE CLEARLY IN LATEST RUNS. OVERALL THE
PROBABILITY OF THIS SCENARIO PANNING OUT IS ABOUT 50-60% SO HAVE
INCLUDED IN THE 18Z TAFS.
OTHERWISE MAIN ISSUE IS PRECIP IN THE SIERRA AND IN FAR WESTERN
NEVADA WEST OF HWY 395. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR GUIDANCE -
BETWEEN NOW AND 03Z IS OPTIMAL TIME FOR COLD FRONTAL RAIN TO IMPACT
AIRFIELDS INCLUDING TRK/TVL/BRIDGEPORT. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION IS A
GIVEN IN THE SIERRA AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT DAYBREAK SUNDAY
IN THE COOLER POST FRONTAL AIRMASS. IF SKIES CLEAR ENOUGH FOG IS
POSSIBLE AT TRK LATE TONIGHT SINCE THEY DID GET A BURST OF RAIN THIS
AFTERNOON. CS
FIRE WEATHER...
STRONG WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES IN. INCREASING MOISTURE OVER THE SIERRA AND ALONG THE
SIERRA FRONT HAVE HELPED TO INCREASE THE HUMIDITY IN THE RENO-CARSON
CITY-MINDEN AREAS. THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE WESTERN NEVADA
SIERRA FRONT WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 3PM THIS AFTERNOON.
FURTHER EAST, DRIER CONDITIONS AND STRONG WINDS WILL KEEP THE RED
FLAG WARNING IN PLACE THROUGH 8PM THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH WESTERN NEVADA THIS EVENING WITH
DIMINISHING WINDS, GOOD RECOVERY AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.
HOON
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
1118 AM MDT SUN OCT 26 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1118 AM MDT SUN OCT 26 2014
NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WE WILL BE WAITING FOR
THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE STATE TO INCREASE AS
ADVERTISED BY THE MODELS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS CURRENTLY OVER NORTHEASTERN NEVADA AND
HEADING OUR WAY. LIGHTNING DETECTION HAS NOT RECORDED ANY
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SINCE 5 AM THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...SINCE THERE WAS SOME LIGHTNING OVERNIGHT...WILL
LEAVE THE MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR
NOW. THE IDEA OF MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT
ALSO SEEMS APPROPRIATE...AS THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING RAPIDLY
ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 330 AM MDT SUN OCT 26 2014
THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO INCOMING TROF OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THIS
WILL RESULT IN INCREASING MOUNTAIN TOP FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST
AND WEST THIS MORNING. OBSERVATIONS ALREADY SHOWING AN INCREASE IN
WINDS...AND 88D SHOWING WIND SIGNATURE DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN
BOULDER COUNTY. CROSS SECTIONS FROM NAM/RAP SHOW STRONGEST WINDS
BETWEEN 12Z-15Z WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAIN
PASSES AND WIND PRONE EAST SLOPES. CURRENTLY STRONGEST WINDS ARE
OVER MOUNTAIN PASSES WITH SPEEDS IN THE 40-50 MPH RANGE. EXPECT
SOME OF THESE STRONGER WINDS TO EXPAND AND INCREASE DOWN THE
FOOTHILLS AS DECENT STABLE LAYER DEVELOPS IN THE 750-700MB LAYER
AFTER 12Z. WINDS WILL DECREASE BY AFTERNOON WITH DISSIPATION OF
STABLE LAYER.
INITIAL MOISTURE WITH THIS UPCOMING SYSTEM IS RATHER DRY WITH MOST
OF THE MOISTURE IS IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. EXPECT SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME INSTABILITY
AND A BIT BETTER MOISTURE WITH THE JET AND AS TROF APPROACHES.
SEEING QUITE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER NORTHERN UTAH ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN THE COOL DOWN
THIS AFTERNOON WITH READINGS IN THE 70S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS.
NO RECORD TEMPS EXPECTED TODAY.
BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE TONIGHT OVER THE MOUNTAINS
WITH SOME WEAK QG UPWARD FORCING AS TROF AXIS NEARS LATER TONIGHT.
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS STILL LOOK TO BE IN THE 2-5 INCH RANGE...HIGHEST
IN ZONE 31. PRECIP CHANCES MORE IFFY OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS AS
MODELS ARE QUITE VARIED ON MOISTURE AVAILABILITY. GFS IS THE
WETTEST AND NAM IS THE DRIEST. BEST CHANCES APPEAR TO BE OVER THE
FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS WITH THE BEST UPWARD FORCING AND MOISTURE ARE
OVERLAYED. THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO
LATER TONIGHT AS WIND SHIFT NORTH AND NORTHEAST.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 AM MDT SUN OCT 26 2014
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE MONDAY
MORNING AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD...AND SHOULD BE EAST OF
THE AREA BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. AFTER LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES
ALOFT AS WELL AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS...LOWERED THE MAX TEMPERATURES
OVER THE PLAINS BY A FEW DEGREES. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
ABOUT 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY...WHICH WILL ACTUALLY BE BACK
DOWN NEAR OR JUST BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. DOWNWARD
QG VERTICAL VELOCITY WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY HOWEVER
BEING UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET WILL HELP A FEW
SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN COLORADO THROUGH THE DAY.
HOWEVER...CROSS SECTIONS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE AIRMASS
DRYING OUT QUICKLY THROUGH THE DAY. WESTERLY MOUNTAIN TOP FLOW
TRANSITIONING TO NORTHWEST AS THE TROUGH PASSES WILL HELP WRING
OUT ANY REMAINING MOISTURE OVER THE MOUNTAINS. COULD SEE ANOTHER
INCH OR TWO AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH LOWER AMOUNTS AT ELEVATIONS
DOWN TO ABOUT 6500 FEET. THE SYSTEM WILL EXIT QUICKLY WITH SKIES
CLEARING IN THE EVENING. THE CONCERN THAT NIGHT IS FOR NEAR OR
BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES HOWEVER...SEEMS AS THOUGH A 700 MB LEE
TROUGH MAY FORM AS WELL AS SOME HIGHER CLOUDS MOVING IN AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THIS MAY HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM COOLING TOO
MUCH...INCREASED TEMPERATURES OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND NEAR THE
FOOTHILLS AND URBAN CORRIDOR SLIGHTLY. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH
MODEL TRENDS FOR A NEED FOR A HIGHLIGHT.
TUESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL FEATURE AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING
IN FROM THE WEST WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR MOST OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL..ALTHOUGH A RIPPLE LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING IN COOLER AIR FOR THURSDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER BIG WARM UP. DOUBT WE`LL SEE A RETURN OF 80+ DEGREE DAYS
FOR THE PLAINS. LONG TERM MODELS SEEM TO WANT TO BRING IN THE NEXT
SYSTEM SOMETIME ON NEXT SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1118 AM MDT SUN OCT 26 2014
WINDS AT KDEN HAVE GONE TO A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST COMPONENT WITH SOME
GUSTS AT TIMES. SEEMS TO BE RELATED TO A SURGE COMING OFF THE
PALMER DIVIDE. THIS SHOULD LAST FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO...THEN
RETURN TO LIGHTER WESTERLIES AS CROSS SECTIONS SHOW DEEP...LIGHT
WESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE NAM
AND RAP KEEP THE DENVER AREA DRY OVERNIGHT...PROBABLY DUE TO
WESTERLY...DOWNSLOPING FLOW OVERCOMING THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FAST MOVING UPPER DISTURBANCE. MAIN EMPHASIS IN THE TAF
PRODUCT WILL BE TRYING TO DEFINE DETAILS IN THE WINDS.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DANKERS
SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM...KRIEDERMAN
AVIATION...DANKERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
725 PM EDT MON OCT 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...AS A MILDER AIR
MASS BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BRIEFLY BE ABOVE
NORMAL ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE A COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID WEEK PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM EDT...A QUIET COOL EVENING AS A FEW HIGH CLOUDS...THE
RESULT OF WARM AIR ADVECTION...WERE STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION. THE
AREA WAS UNDER A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WITH LITTLE OR NO WIND.
THEREFORE...TEMPERATURES WERE DROPPING QUICKLY BACK INTO THE 40S IN
MOST AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 40
EVERYWHERE.
WE EXPECT RADIATIONAL COOLING THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT. THEN...AS HIGH
CLOUDS THICKEN AND THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE...A SOUTHERLY
BREEZE WILL KICK IN (AT LEAST THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS). TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY REMAIN STEADY FROM THIS POINT ON...OR MIGHT ACTUALLY
RISE A COUPLE OF DEGREES BEFORE THE SUN DOES.
THERE WAS A MULTI-CONVECTIVE SYSTEM ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA.
HOWEVER...THE STRONGEST ISENTROPIC LIFT (DRIVEN BY WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND AN UPPER LEVEL JET MAX) WAS MOVING NORTH OF OUR
REGION. WE BELIEVE ANY REAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACITIVITY SHOULD
STAY TO OUR NORTH. THE LATEST RUC ACTUALLY INDICATED SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY MIGHT SKIM OUR NORTHERN AREAS AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY. FOR
NOW...NOT ENOUGH REASON TO TINKER WITH TUESAY/S FORECAST.
THEREFORE FOR THIS UPDATE...VERY LITTLE TO UPDATE.
SHOWALTER VALUES OVERNIGHT ARE INITIALLY NEAR 0C ACROSS
WESTERN/CENTRAL NY AND THOSE VALUES GRADUALLY FILL AS IT APPROACHES
OUR REGION. AT THIS TIME...WE WILL CONTINUE TO WITHHOLD THE MENTION
OF THUNDER AS WE MONITOR UPSTREAM TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH AS OUR REGION BECOMES
WELL ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR. SHOULD BE A SPLENDID DAY
UNFOLDING AS STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT H850 TEMPS
TO BETWEEN +11C TO +15C. COMBINE THAT WITH SUNSHINE AND
DOWNSLOPING...VALLEY LOCATIONS COULD ONCE AGAIN OBSERVE NEAR OR
JUST A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE 70F WITH 60S ELSEWHERE /AND BASED ON
TEMPS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY AFTERNOON...THIS COULD EASILY BE
OBTAINED/.
TUESDAY NIGHT...AS THE PREVIOUS EXCELLENT AFD...VARIABLE TIMING
REMAINS FROM THE NCEP MODEL GUIDANCE WITH THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A COUPLE RUMBLES OF THUNDER WITH THE COLD FRONT. THERE IS
DECENT LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH THE FRONT AS S/SW LLJ OF 40-50
KTS WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION SOME GULF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE.
LATEST TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE ARE SUGGESTING THE FROPA WILL BE A
BIT SLOWER TO CLEAR THE REGION. UPPER FLOW REMAINS POSITIVELY
TILTED WITH A WEAK SURFACE PERTURBATION/REFLECTING DEVELOPING OVER
CENTRAL NY OVERNIGHT. SO WE WILL SLOW DOWN POPS/WX GRIDS AND KEEP
MOST OF THE NIGHT UNDER SCT-LIKELY POPS. LOWS TEMPS WILL BE A BIT
BALMY IN THE LOWER TO M50S...EXCEPT SOME U40S OVER THE SRN
DACKS.
WEDNESDAY...AS A SLOWER FROPA IS EXPECTED...WE WILL SLOW DOWN THE
EXIT OF THIS FRONT AND KEEP THE MENTION OF POPS/WX FOR THE
EASTERN 1/2 OF THE CWFA IN THE MORNING. MEANWHILE...SLOW ADVECTING
COLDER AIR WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE DAY. AS THIS COOLER AIR MOVES
ACROSS THE WARM WATERS OF THE GREAT LAKES...AMPLE STRATUS WILL
REDEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY. THESE VARIABLES WILL RESULT IN A COOLER
DAY THAN TUESDAYS WITH HIGHS AROUND 60F FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND
50S FOR MOST OTHER LOCATIONS /SOME UPPER 40S FOR THE DACKS/.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT CLEARS THE REGION WITH
STRONGER PUSH COLD ADVECTION DURING THE EVENING HOURS. H850 TEMPS
FALL TO 0C ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES TO -4C NORTH AND WEST OF
ALBANY. THIS WILL TRIGGER SOME ISOLD LAKE EFFECT/INDUCED SHOWERS
OVER THE SRN DACKS...SOME OF WHICH MAY MIX WITH SNOW. SOME LAKE
EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO THE WEST-CENTRAL MOHAWK
VALLEY OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE M30S TO L40S FOR MOST OF THE
REGION.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OFF MAINLY QUIET AND MAINLY AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST TO OUR SOUTH THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE AIR WILL BE COOL ENOUGH AND BREEZY ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST
SOME LAKE ENHANCED PRECIPITATION POSSIBLY COMING OFF LAKE
ONTARIO...MAINLY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY.
TEMPERATURES LOOK WARM ENOUGH FOR ANY PRECIPITATION TO BE MAINLY
RAIN WITH ANY SNOW CONFINED TO THE HIGHEST TERRAIN. ANY
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ON THURSDAY WILL BE LIGHT.
MOST OTHER AREAS SHOULD BE DRY WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE (MORE SUN THE
FURTHER SOUTH ONE GOES). TEMPERATURES WILL SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 50S ALBANY SOUTHWARD...BUT ONLY IN THE 40S TO
AROUND 50 FURTHER NORTH AND ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE MAINLY IN THE 30S...TO AROUND 40
LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION.
BY FRIDAY...AN IMPRESSIVE CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING
FROM OUR WEST AND ALOFT...A NEW TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CONUS.
RIGHT NOW...MOST OF FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH
AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS
DEVELOPING LATE IN THE DAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 50 IN THE VALLEYS...40S HIGHER
TERRAIN.
SHOWERS LOOK TO INCREASE ACROSS OUR REGION FRIDAY AS ENERGY FROM THE
CLIPPER TRANSFORMS INTO AN OCEAN STORM BY EARLY SATURDAY. ALOFT AN
UPPER AIR LOW WILL BE CUTTING TO EAST OUR WELL...WHICH WILL CAPTURE
THE SURFACE STORM TO THE EAST OF CAPE COD.
ALL THE 12Z GUIDANCE HAD THIS SURFACE STORM DEVELOPING TOO FAR EAST
TO BRING A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO OUR REGION. HOWEVER...THERE COULD
BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT...WHEN COMBINED THE DEVELOPING TROUGH
DRIVING ENOUGH COLD AIR INTO THE REGION...TO PRODUCE SOME SNOW
ACROSS REGION SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. IT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE
THAT SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW COULD TAKE PLACE...MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS BUT EVEN VALLEY AREAS COULD SEE A LEAST A
LITTLE.
KEEP IN MIND...THIS STORM IS POTENTIALLY FOUR DAYS OUT...AND IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THIS STORM COULD DEVELOP A LITTLE FURTHER WEST. IT
DEFINITELY BEARS WATCHING AS ANY POSSIBLE EARLY SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION COULD PRODUCE PROBLEMS AS MANY TREES FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION SOUTH STILL HAVE A FAIR AMOUNT OF LEAVES ON THEM.
FOR NOW...CONTINUED WITH 40-50 POPS ACROSS OUR REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH AGAIN THE BEST CHANCES FOR SNOW OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT CHANCES FOR AT LEAST SNOW SHOWERS EXIST
EVERYWHERE BY SATURDAY NIGHT.
STORM OR NOT...IT LOOKS AS IF THE COLDEST AIR MASS SINCE LAST APRIL
WILL BE USHERED IN SATURDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. BY
SUNDAY...THE OCEAN STORM LOOKS TO BE SITUATED NEAR NOVA
SCOTIA...PRODUCING A BRISK WIND FLOW. THERE MIGHT BE SOME LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS...BUT THE FLOW AT POINT LOOKED MORE
NORTHWESTERLY (THAN WESTERLY) THIS WOULD IMPLY ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW
BANDS WOULD BE FRAGMENTED ACROSS MAINLY THE ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK
VALLEY ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...IT WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD THEY TAKE PLACE.
THE ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE ON MONDAY.
LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 30S NORTH AND WEST OF
ALBANY ON SATURDAY...40-45 ALBANY SOUTHWARD. TEMPERATURES WILL DIVE
DOWN INTO THE 20S ACROSS MOST PLACES SATURDAY NIGHT. ON
SUNDAY...HIGHS WILL GENERALLY ONLY BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER
THAN SATURDAY. BY MONDAY...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO MODERATE BACK INTO
THE 40S...TO AROUND 50 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD
COUNTY.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO AVIATION WEATHER RELATED PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PREDOMINATING THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
HIGH CLOUDS...ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION...AND EVENTUALLY A
LIGHT SOUTHERLY BREEZE SHOULD PRECLUDE THE FORMATION OF ANY FOG AT
OUR TAF SITES OVERNIGHT.
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE THAT SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL INCREASE
TO ABOUT 10KTS BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING...WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20KTS
POSSIBLE (NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAF SINCE FOR THE MOST PART THESE GUSTS
DO NOT LOOK THAT PERSISTENT). TUESDAY WILL FEATURE SOME MID TO HIGH
MAINLY SCT CLOUDS.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.
A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH MOST AREAS
SOUTH OF I90 REMAINING DRY. A MILD AND DRY DAY SETTING UP FOR
TUESDAY WITH A SOUTHERLY BREEZE OF 10 TO 18 MPH AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. A COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES.
A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND TONIGHT...BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH ARE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY.
THE RH VALUES WILL RECOVERY OVERNIGHT TO BETWEEN 80 AND 100
PERCENT...THEN DROP INTO THE 40-60 PERCENTILE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK.
RIVERS FLOWS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THE NEXT FEW DAYS DESPITE
THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL WILL BE IN THE
TENTH TO HALF OF AN INCH RANGE.
DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR MOST OF THE HSA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATER FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. SOME THE
PRECIPITATION MAY BE RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW DEPENDING ON THE
EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/BGM/WASULA
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
745 PM EDT MON OCT 27 2014
.UPDATE (REST OF TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
23Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS. NORTHERN STREAM FLOW ARRIVES OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST OVER TOP AN EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE...AND THEN DIVES
QUICKLY SOUTHWARD INTO A LONGWAVE TROUGH EJECTING EASTWARD FROM THE
INTER-MOUTAIN WEST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY. THE FLOW
THEN RIDGES BACK UP OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION. THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA RESIDES WITHIN THE BASE OF THIS EASTERN CONUS
RIDGE UNDER A CONTINUED VERY DRY ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. THE DRYESS IN
THE MIDDLE/UPPER LEVELS IS CLEARLY EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY...AND THE
LOW LEVEL DRYNESS IS VERY APPARENT TAKING A QUICK GLANCE AT THE DATA
COMING BACK FROM THE 28/00Z KTBW SOUNDING PROFILE. MARKED DRYING WAS
SAMPLED AT THE TOP OF THE MIXING LAYER AROUND 850MB WITH LARGE
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS FROM THERE ON UP. THE DRY COLUMN AND COMPLETE
LACK OF SYNOPTIC SUPPORT FOR LIFT WILL KEEP OUR SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR
INTO THE MORNING HOURS OF TUESDAY.
REST OF TONIGHT WILL BE VERY QUIET IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER...
WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. A COMBINATION OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
AND THE VERY DRY ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO GET
COOL OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES BY DAWN WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
50S TO THE NORTH OF I-4...AND IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FURTHER
SOUTH.
ANOTHER VERY PLEASANT DAY ON TAP FOR TUESDAY. STACKED RIDGING WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE DAY...EVEN THOUGH THE
UPPER RIDGE CENTER BEGINS TO DRIFT TO THE EAST OF THE PENINSULA.
590DM H5 HEIGHTS ARE PRETTY DECENT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...SO WOULD
ANTICIPATE ANOTHER ABOVE AVERAGE DAY IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES.
AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD EASILY REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S ACROSS
THE REGION. A WEAK SEA-BREEZE DEVELOPING BY MID AFTERNOON ALONG THE
COAST WILL DROP TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES AT THE BEACHES. SOME
ATLANTIC MOISTURE RETURN ABOVE THE SURFACE SHOULD ALLOW FOR A FEW
MORE IN THE WAY OF CUMULUS CLOUDS FOR THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THIS
MOISTURE RETURN IS VERY SHALLOW AND SO ANY CUMULUS WILL HAVE VERY
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF VERTICAL GROWTH. HAVE A GREAT MONDAY NIGHT AND
ENJOY THE CONTINUED DRY WEATHER FOR YOUR TUESDAY!
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR FOG IS A POSSIBILITY LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY FOR
KLAL...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION BR IN THE FORECAST FOR THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WELL OFF
THE CAROLINA COAST WILL KEEP CLEAR DRY AIR OVER THE WATERS FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WINDS WILL REMAIN EASTERLY WITH SEA
BREEZES LATE IN THE DAY. BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AND BACK WINDS TO THE NORTH AND BRING IN A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. NO HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 66 85 68 84 / 0 0 10 10
FMY 65 86 67 86 / 0 0 10 20
GIF 62 85 65 85 / 0 0 10 10
SRQ 63 85 67 84 / 0 0 10 10
BKV 52 86 59 86 / 0 0 10 10
SPG 69 84 71 84 / 0 0 10 10
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...05/CARLISLE
LONG TERM...18/FLEMING
MARINE...007/DOUGHERTY
DECISION SUPPORT...09/RUDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
714 PM EDT MON OCT 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 114 PM EDT MON OCT 27 2014
UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR WILL BE OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING
SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH DRIER AND COOLER AIR FUNNELING BACK IN FOR THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 714 PM EDT MON OCT 27 2014
SUBTLE BAND OF ENHANCED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT
IS CURRENTLY TOUCHING OFF A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE AREA WITH THE HELP OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES. LOWER LEVELS
ARE STILL RELATIVELY DRY AND QPF AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN LIGHT BUT DID
EXPAND AND PUSH UP THE TIMING OF POPS FOR THE EARLY OVERNIGHT
PERIOD IN LIGHT OF LATEST RADAR IMAGERY AND CG LIGHTNING REPORTS.
STILL EXPECT PRECIP TO EXPAND IN OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES LATER
TONIGHT AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES SO NO MAJOR CHANGES AFTER
06Z...AN IDEA SUPPORTED BY LATEST HRRR AND RAP GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM EDT MON OCT 27 2014
REASONABLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT FOR TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND PCPN CHANCES. WATER VAPOR THIS
AFTERNOON CLEARLY SHOWS PARENT LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH
PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MS VALLEY
REGION STREAMING NORTHEAST TOWARD OUR AREA. MAIN SHORT WAVE RIDING
AROUND BASE OF UPPER LOW AND SHOULD MOVE THROUGH HERE LATER
TONIGHT. INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION THROUGH THE EVENING WITH
INITIAL WEAK LEAD SHORT WAVE AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET TO 50
KNOTS MAY AID IN A FEW SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN HALF
OF THE CWA EARLY THIS EVENING. HIRES GUIDANCE ALL SHOWING THIS
DEVELOPMENT WHILE AFTERNOON RADAR MOSAIC INDEED SHOWS SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT ALREADY BEGINNING OVER EASTERN MO INTO WESTERN IL.
WILL ACCOUNT FOR THIS WITH A LOW TO MODERATE POP FROM 00Z THROUGH
06Z THEN RAMPING UP POPS AFTER 06Z...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN AREAS
AS MAIN SHORT WAVE APPROACHES. EXPECT BURGEONING AREA OF PCPN
UPSTREAM THIS EVENING WITH BEST FORCING AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE WHICH
SHOULD THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE GIVEN MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS
BUT NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER. COULD SEE A FEW ISOLATED STRONG
WIND GUSTS WITH STRONGEST UPDRAFTS GIVEN LOW LEVEL JET.
SPEED OF SYSTEM AND DISTANCE CURRENTLY BETWEEN PARENT LOW AND
MOISTURE FEED SUPPORT STRONG DRY SLOT MOVING IN TUESDAY QUICKLY
ENDING PCPN FROM WEST TO EAST. MODEL DEPICTIONS SHOW STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING WITH SKY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BECOME MOSTLY
SUNNY. A BIT CONCERNED ABOUT STRATOCUMULUS FILLING IN DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION ALOFT BUT NOT READY TO GO AGAINST
SUBSIDENCE AND PRIOR TRENDS AT THIS TIME.
LOWS TONIGHT LIKELY TO REMAIN IN THE 60S MOST AREAS WITH CLOUD COVER
AND WINDS. TEMPS NOT EXPECTED TO DO MUCH ON TUESDAY WITH MORNING
COLD FRONT PASSAGE. COLDER AIR INITIALLY SLOW TO INFILTRATE...LIKELY
BEING OFFSET BY CLEARING AND DIURNAL SUN IN EARLY AFTERNOON. SHOULD
SEE TEMPS FALL MORE RAPIDLY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS SUN BEGINS TO
SET AND COLD WEDGE DEEPENS OVER THE AREA...ESPECIALLY IF MORE CLOUD
COVER DEVELOPS. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S EXPECTED SOMEWHERE IN
THE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
&&
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM EDT MON OCT 27 2014
PERIOD WILL START ON THE QUIET SIDE WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW HOLDS ACROSS THE
REGION. MODEST WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL TRY TO NOSE IN THURS INTO
THURS NIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG PIECE OF ENERGY WHICH WILL BREAK OFF
FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN CANADA. FOLLOWING THE FAR SUPERIOR
ECMWF OF THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS IN THESE MORE ENERGIZED PATTERN A
BRIEF BUT POTENT SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
WITH MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS
BOTH WITH PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT AND IN ITS WAKE WITH
FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. AT THIS POINT...BULK OF THE COLDEST AIR WILL
BYPASS THE FORECAST AREA BUT THAT BEING SAID 850 MB TEMPS WILL STILL
DROP INTO THE -6 TO -8 C RANGE AT 850 MB. ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THE
SYSTEM SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE. WITH THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR
COMING IN AND 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES DROPPING BELOW 1300 M...THE
CONCERN IS RAISED FOR A BIT OF WET SNOW BEING MIXED IN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS SHOW BELOW FREEZING TEMPS THROUGH 925 MB...BUT
SFC TEMPS SUGGEST READINGS AROUND 40. A MENTION OF SNOW MAY NOT HURT
IN FAR NE AREAS BUT HOLDING OFF FOR NOW WITH BEST TIME FRAME
OCCURRING AS BEST PRECIP CHANCES ARE DEPARTING.
AS MENTIONED...COLD AIR WILL BE SHORT AS DEEP UPPER LOW PIVOTS OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH A CONTINUED BUT MORE RELAXED NW FLOW IN
TERMS OF COLD AIR ALOFT ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO BEGIN TO MODERATE BACK
TOWARDS NORMAL BY MONDAY AS WARM FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE TOWARDS THE
REGION. ECMWF SUGGESTS SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ON THE NOSE OF
INCREASING THETA E BUT WITH AMOUNT OF DRY AIR STILL IN PLACE WILL BE
SOMEWHAT CONSERVATIVE AND KEEP TONED DOWN ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN
AREAS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 714 PM EDT MON OCT 27 2014
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GRADUALLY EXPANDING THIS EVENING ALONG
SUBTLE BAND OF ENHANCED ISENTROPIC ASCENT/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.
STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE LED TO SCT THUNDERSTORMS DESPITE
DRY LOW LEVELS AND HIGH CLOUD BASES. LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN
AVIATION CONCERN AT KFWA THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING WITH LIMITED
VIS/CEILING REDUCTION SEEN IN PRECIP SO FAR. DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT AT BOTH TERMINALS AS COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA. WILL HOLD ABOVE FUEL ALTERNATE FOR NOW BUT A
BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW END MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BY EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. QUICK IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CATEGORY EXPECTED BY
LATE TUESDAY MORNING AS DRY SLOT OVERSPREADS THE REGION.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AGD
SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL/LASHLEY
SHORT TERM...LASHLEY
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...AGD
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
831 PM MDT MON OCT 27 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 831 PM MDT MON OCT 27 2014
UPDATE ISSUED TO REMOVE MENTION OF ANY PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH
OF THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. LATEST RADAR IMAGE STILL
SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW --RW AS CLD COVER STILL LINGERS
OVER GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA SO WILL KEEP IN FOR NEXT COUPLE
HOURS. NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME TO OVERNIGHT LOWS AS AWAITING
CLOUDS TO BREAK UP. THE BIG DROP OFF IN WINDS PLUS A SHIFT IN
DIRECTION OUT WEST MAY AID IN ALLOWING TEMPS TO DROP AS SKIES CLR
OUT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TO SEE IF ANY CHANGES NEED TO BE
MADE TO CURRENT ADVISORY/WARNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM MDT MON OCT 27 2014
UPPER FLOW WILL BE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SUBSIDENCE WILL PRODUCE
DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FA THROUGH TUESDAY. POPS FOR TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY WILL BE NIL.
RADAR RETURNS ACROSS THE FA TODAY HAVE BEEN VERY LIGHT WITH METARS
REPORTING HIGH CLOUD BASES AND NO PRECIPITATION. THE HRRR SHOWS A
BAND OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER AN AREA IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES
THIS EVENING SO WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SPRINKLES THERE.
THIS IS AN AREA WHERE THERE IS FRONTOGENESIS BUT MOISTURE IS LIMITED.
THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE IF THERE WILL BE A HARD FREEZE TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL DECREASE AND BECOME LIGHT FROM THE WEST ALONG WITH
CLEARING. MOST OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE GIVES LOW TEMPERATURES AROUND
30 IN EASTERN COLORADO WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
REST OF THE FA. THERE IS A LEAST ONE GUIDANCE THAT SHOWS
TEMPERATURES AROUND 29 DEGREES IN EASTERN COLORADO AND WITH THE MET
SHOWING 21 DEGREES FOR LIC, CANNOT RULE OUT A HARD FREEZE IN WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN COLORADO ZONES. PLAN TO UPGRADE THE FREEZE
WATCH TO A WARNING IN EASTERN COLORADO AND THEN GO WITH A FROST
ADVISORY ACROSS THE REST OF THE FA. SEE UPDATED HIGHLIGHTS BELOW.
MAX TEMPERATURES TUESDAY SHOULD WARM TO THE LOWER 60S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM MDT MON OCT 27 2014
FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...QUIET WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE WEEK BEFORE THE NEXT WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH.
MAIN CONCERNS AS IT STANDS RIGHT NOW IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
WINDS ON SATURDAY.
BEGINNING WITH TUESDAY NIGHT...COLD LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
ONCE AGAIN. FOR THIS NIGHT...MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE FROST ONCE
AGAIN BUT LOCATIONS AROUND MCCOOK...OBERLIN AND NORTON MAY
APPROACH FREEZE WARNING CRITERIA...28 DEGREES OR LESS. WITH THE
CURRENT FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES OUT...WILL NOT ISSUE ADDITIONAL
HAZARD HEADLINES BUT THEY MAY BE NEEDED FROM TONIGHTS SHIFT OR
TOMORROWS DAY SHIFT.
FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
TRANSLATES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...LEAVING THE REGION PRECIPITATION-
FREE. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES OVER THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES INTO
THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY...FORCING A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
THROUGH. THIS WILL LEAD TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY.
WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S BEFORE
COOLING OFF THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOW DEWPOINTS SHOULD REMAIN FOR
LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM MCCOOK NEBRASKA TO TRIBUNE
KANSAS...RESULTING IN RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE 15-20 PERCENT RANGE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS ARE FORECAST SO CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS. THE
ONLY QUESTION THAT REMAINS IS HOW ACTIVE WILL WE BE? MODELS ARE
INDICATING A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES
AND EJECTING OVER THE PLAINS BUT DISAGREE ON TIMING/MOVEMENT. WE ARE
GETTING INTO THE SEASON WHERE THESE TYPES OF TROUGHS NEED TO BE
MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER DEVELOPMENT. THE CANADIAN
MODEL DEVELOPS A STRONG MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE SATURDAY OVER NORTHERN
NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA BEFORE HEADING INTO NORTH DAKOTA. THE GFS
INDICATES A SECOND...STRONGER LOBE OF ENERGY MOVING ACROSS OUR
REGION WITH POTENTIAL FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION ON
THE BACK SIDE. THESE TWO SOLUTIONS RAISE THE ALERT FLAG ON A
POTENTIAL SECOND SNOW OF THE YEAR. GLANCING AT THE TEMPERATURES...IT
APPEARS TOO WARM FOR SNOW AT THIS TIME. THE EUROPEAN MODEL INDICATES
A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS WELL...BUT WELL TO THE NORTH...
BEGINNING IN COLORADO/WYOMING BEFORE MOVING NORTH TOWARDS CANADA.
NEEDLESS TO SAY...THIS SYSTEM NEEDS TO BE MONITORED BUT FORECAST
GUIDANCE VARIANCE IS TOO GREAT TO MAKE ANY DEFINITIVE PREDICTIONS ON
WHETHER A LARGER SYSTEM IMPACTS THE TRI-STATE AREA.
ONE THING ALL GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
WINDS SATURDAY. WITH A DEEP LEE TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE AND A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT...A RESULTANT STRENGTHENING
OF THE WIND FIELD IS GUARANTEED. THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS ARE
MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE WINDS AND SHOW POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
GUSTS...POSSIBLY 45-55 MPH. WIND FIELDS AT 1 KM AND 700 MB INDICATE
THERE COULD BE SOME GUSTS EVEN STRONGER BUT WAS NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH
TO PLACE MENTION OF THIS IN PRODUCTS YET.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 527 PM MDT MON OCT 27 2014
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH SKC TO SCT-BKN100-150. SOME --RW/VCSH
POSSIBLE THRU 02Z TUESDAY. STRONG NW FLOW 15-25KTS DIMINISHING TO
5-10KTS BY 04Z AND SHIFTING TO WNW. BY 13Z-14Z TUESDAY WINDS MORE
NW 5-15KTS.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT MDT /1 AM CDT/ TONIGHT TO 10 AM MDT
/11 AM CDT/ TUESDAY FOR KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
CO...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM MDT TUESDAY FOR
COZ090>092.
NE...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT MDT /1 AM CDT/ TONIGHT TO 10 AM MDT
/11 AM CDT/ TUESDAY FOR NEZ079>081.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...JN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
527 PM MDT MON OCT 27 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 527 PM MDT MON OCT 27 2014
UPDATE ISSUED TO ADD IN MENTION OF SPRINKLES TO NW ZONES FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE CLEARING OUT. CLOUD COVER FROM
BOUNDARY OVER THE CWA CONTINUES TO SLOWLY ERODE FROM THE WEST-
NORTHWEST. CAN NOT RULE OUT CWA SEEING A FEW SPRINKLES DESPITE
HIGH CLOUD COVER/LOW RH VALUES. AS THE TRI STATE REGION CLEARS OUT
THE WEATHER CONCERN GOING INTO THE OVER NIGHT HOURS WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL DROP IN TEMPERATURES. WNW WINDS WILL BE FACTOR IN
DETERMINING OVERNIGHT LOWS. WILL MONITOR BOTH UNTIL NEXT UPDATE
AND MAY HAVE TO MAKE CHANGES IN OVERNIGHT LOWS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM MDT MON OCT 27 2014
UPPER FLOW WILL BE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SUBSIDENCE WILL PRODUCE
DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FA THROUGH TUESDAY. POPS FOR TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY WILL BE NIL.
RADAR RETURNS ACROSS THE FA TODAY HAVE BEEN VERY LIGHT WITH METARS
REPORTING HIGH CLOUD BASES AND NO PRECIPITATION. THE HRRR SHOWS A
BAND OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER AN AREA IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES
THIS EVENING SO WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SPRINKLES THERE.
THIS IS AN AREA WHERE THERE IS FRONTOGENESIS BUT MOISTURE IS LIMITED.
THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE IF THERE WILL BE A HARD FREEZE TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL DECREASE AND BECOME LIGHT FROM THE WEST ALONG WITH
CLEARING. MOST OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE GIVES LOW TEMPERATURES AROUND
30 IN EASTERN COLORADO WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
REST OF THE FA. THERE IS A LEAST ONE GUIDANCE THAT SHOWS
TEMPERATURES AROUND 29 DEGREES IN EASTERN COLORADO AND WITH THE MET
SHOWING 21 DEGREES FOR LIC, CANNOT RULE OUT A HARD FREEZE IN WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN COLORADO ZONES. PLAN TO UPGRADE THE FREEZE
WATCH TO A WARNING IN EASTERN COLORADO AND THEN GO WITH A FROST
ADVISORY ACROSS THE REST OF THE FA. SEE UPDATED HIGHLIGHTS BELOW.
MAX TEMPERATURES TUESDAY SHOULD WARM TO THE LOWER 60S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM MDT MON OCT 27 2014
FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...QUIET WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE WEEK BEFORE THE NEXT WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH.
MAIN CONCERNS AS IT STANDS RIGHT NOW IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
WINDS ON SATURDAY.
BEGINNING WITH TUESDAY NIGHT...COLD LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
ONCE AGAIN. FOR THIS NIGHT...MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE FROST ONCE
AGAIN BUT LOCATIONS AROUND MCCOOK...OBERLIN AND NORTON MAY
APPROACH FREEZE WARNING CRITERIA...28 DEGREES OR LESS. WITH THE
CURRENT FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES OUT...WILL NOT ISSUE ADDITIONAL
HAZARD HEADLINES BUT THEY MAY BE NEEDED FROM TONIGHTS SHIFT OR
TOMORROWS DAY SHIFT.
FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
TRANSLATES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...LEAVING THE REGION PRECIPITATION-
FREE. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES OVER THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES INTO
THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY...FORCING A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
THROUGH. THIS WILL LEAD TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY.
WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S BEFORE
COOLING OFF THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOW DEWPOINTS SHOULD REMAIN FOR
LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM MCCOOK NEBRASKA TO TRIBUNE
KANSAS...RESULTING IN RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE 15-20 PERCENT RANGE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS ARE FORECAST SO CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS. THE
ONLY QUESTION THAT REMAINS IS HOW ACTIVE WILL WE BE? MODELS ARE
INDICATING A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES
AND EJECTING OVER THE PLAINS BUT DISAGREE ON TIMING/MOVEMENT. WE ARE
GETTING INTO THE SEASON WHERE THESE TYPES OF TROUGHS NEED TO BE
MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER DEVELOPMENT. THE CANADIAN
MODEL DEVELOPS A STRONG MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE SATURDAY OVER NORTHERN
NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA BEFORE HEADING INTO NORTH DAKOTA. THE GFS
INDICATES A SECOND...STRONGER LOBE OF ENERGY MOVING ACROSS OUR
REGION WITH POTENTIAL FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION ON
THE BACK SIDE. THESE TWO SOLUTIONS RAISE THE ALERT FLAG ON A
POTENTIAL SECOND SNOW OF THE YEAR. GLANCING AT THE TEMPERATURES...IT
APPEARS TOO WARM FOR SNOW AT THIS TIME. THE EUROPEAN MODEL INDICATES
A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS WELL...BUT WELL TO THE NORTH...
BEGINNING IN COLORADO/WYOMING BEFORE MOVING NORTH TOWARDS CANADA.
NEEDLESS TO SAY...THIS SYSTEM NEEDS TO BE MONITORED BUT FORECAST
GUIDANCE VARIANCE IS TOO GREAT TO MAKE ANY DEFINITIVE PREDICTIONS ON
WHETHER A LARGER SYSTEM IMPACTS THE TRI-STATE AREA.
ONE THING ALL GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
WINDS SATURDAY. WITH A DEEP LEE TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE AND A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT...A RESULTANT STRENGTHENING
OF THE WIND FIELD IS GUARANTEED. THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS ARE
MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE WINDS AND SHOW POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
GUSTS...POSSIBLY 45-55 MPH. WIND FIELDS AT 1 KM AND 700 MB INDICATE
THERE COULD BE SOME GUSTS EVEN STRONGER BUT WAS NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH
TO PLACE MENTION OF THIS IN PRODUCTS YET.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 527 PM MDT MON OCT 27 2014
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH SKC TO SCT-BKN100-150. SOME --RW/VCSH
POSSIBLE THRU 02Z TUESDAY. STRONG NW FLOW 15-25KTS DIMINISHING TO
5-10KTS BY 04Z AND SHIFTING TO WNW. BY 13Z-14Z TUESDAY WINDS MORE
NW 5-15KTS.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT MDT /1 AM CDT/ TONIGHT TO 10 AM MDT
/11 AM CDT/ TUESDAY FOR KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
CO...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM MDT TUESDAY FOR
COZ090>092.
NE...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT MDT /1 AM CDT/ TONIGHT TO 10 AM MDT
/11 AM CDT/ TUESDAY FOR NEZ079>081.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...JN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
213 PM MDT SUN OCT 26 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM MDT SUN OCT 26 2014
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW RIDGE CENTERED
OVER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND TROUGH BUILDING SOUTH INTO THE
WESTERN US. SW FLOW IS IN PLACE OVR THE CENTRAL ROCKIES/NORTHERN
PLAINS WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER OUR CWA. AT THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT IS MOVING OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO
WITH A WARM FRONT OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA. SURFACE TROUGH HAS SHIFTED
EAST WITH LIGHT NW LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS OUR CWA.
PRECIP TONIGHT-MONDAY...GUIDANCE SHOWING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
TONIGHT FROM NW TO SE THROUGH SUNRISE. MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
PASS ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY WITH BETTER FORCING OVER OUR CWA
ALONG THE SOUTHERN AXIS OF THIS TROUGH BETWEEN THE MID-MORNING TO
EARLY AFTERNOON PERIOD. LIMITING FACTOR FOR PRECIPITATION TONIGHT
AND MONDAY CONTINUES TO BE A VERY DRY AIR MASS THAT WILL HAVE TO BE
OVERCOME FOR ANY PRECIPITATION TO REACH THE GROUND. BY MIDDAY MONDAY
SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE A SATURATED LAYER WITHIN 4-8KFT AGL...HOWEVER
THERE IS STILL A DRY LAYER BELOW THIS WITH TD DEPRESSIONS 30-40F.
THERE IS SOME WEAK INSTABILITY WITHIN THIS LAYER...WHICH COULD
SUPPORT A FEW MODERATE SHOWERS...WHICH COULD REACH THE SURFACE AS
MEASURABLE RAINFALL. SEEMS LIKELY WE WILL SEE VIRGA AND MAYBE
SCATTERED SPRINKLES...AND ONLY ISOLATED 0.01-0.05" AMOUNTS OUT OF
THIS EVENT. KEPT NW TO SE TIMING FROM 06Z TONIGHT THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON MONDAY...LIMITING POPS TO 20 BASED ON LIMITED CONFIDENCE
ON MEASURABLE PRECIP.
WIND/RH THIS AFTERNOON-MONDAY...LOW SURFACE TD VALUES ALREADY
ADVECTING EAST HAVE ALLOWED RH VALUES TO DROP TO NEAR 15
PERCENT...HOWEVER WITH WINDS ALREADY BACKING OFF AND STRONGER GUSTS
(20-25KT) LIMITED TO THE FAR NW WHERE IS HIGHER RED FLAG CONDITIONS
ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY. SURFACE TD WILL CONTINUE TO DROP THROUGH
THE DAY MONDAY...HOWEVER WITH COOLING AIR MASS AND HIGHS IN THE
50S/60S RH VALUES WILL NOT DROP TO NECESSARY LEVELS FOR RED FLAG
WARNING. WINDS ON THE OTHER HAND WILL INCREASE AS COLD FRONT DROPS
SOUTH...AND WITH MIXING TO AROUND 800MB WE SHOULD SEE GUSTS 30-40
MPH MONDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. ADVISORY CRITERIA IS NOT
CURRENTLY EXPECTED BASED ON CURRENT GFS/NAM MIXING HEIGHTS/850-775MB
WINDS. IF WE WERE TO MIX TO 700MB MAYBE WE COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS IN
THE 45-48 MPH RANGE...HOWEVER THE WOULD BE MOST LIKELY WITH
VIRGA/LIGHT SHOWERS AND NOT A WIDESPREAD THREAT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM MDT SUN OCT 26 2014
UPPER FLOW WILL BE NORTHWEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THIS TIME.
SUBSIDENCE AND LACK OF MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE FA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DYNAMICS FROM THE EXITING TROUGH SHOULD
BE OUTSIDE OF THE FA BY MONDAY EVENING. POPS WILL BE NIL THROUGH
THIS PART OF THE FORECAST.
FROST POTENTIAL LOOKS GOOD FOR MONDAY NIGHT WITH A HARD FREEZE
POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST
KANSAS...WEST OF HIGHWAY 27. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR FROST
AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT BUT A HARD FREEZE IS NOT EXPECTED SINCE
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS COLD. PLAN ON ISSUING A FREEZE WATCH
FOR LATE MONDAY NIGHT IN COORDINATION WITH BOU AND PUB OFFICES. SEE
DETAILS BELOW.
MIN TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 20S WEST
OF HIGHWAY 27 WITH LOWER TO MID 30S EAST ACROSS THE KANSAS ZONES.
MIN TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE MID 30S. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE LOWER 60S.
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 70S ARE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY.
IN THE EXTENDED...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FA THROUGH SUNDAY AS A RIDGE
BUILDS EAST FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS. BY SUNDAY UPPER FLOW
TURNS SOUTHWEST AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO
THE NORTH PLAINS. SINCE MOISTURE IS TOO FAR NORTH CHANCES ARE VERY
SLIM FOR ANYTHING MEASURABLE IN THE FA. CONSEQUENTLY, POPS WILL BE
NIL SUNDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL WARM TO THE
LOWER 70S BY SUNDAY AS 850 TEMPERATURES WARM TO AROUND 20C. MIN
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S WILL WARM TO THE LOWER 40S BY
SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1122 AM MDT SUN OCT 26 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK
TERMINALS. GUSTY NW WINDS AROUND 20KT AT BOTH TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BECOME LIGHT AROUND SUNRISE AS MIXING DECREASES. AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR VIRGA TO
BOTH TERMINALS MONDAY...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE IS TOO LOW
TO ADD VCSH AT THIS TIME. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER BOTH TERMINALS BY 12Z WITH INCREASING WINDS
BEHIND THIS. GUSTS OUT OF THE NORTH BY MID MORNING MONDAY WILL BE
AROUND 30KT AT BOTH TERMINALS...AND A FEW STRONGER GUSTS CANT BE
RULED OUT.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
KSZ001-013-027.
CO...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
COZ090>092.
NE...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
NEZ079.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1122 AM MDT SUN OCT 26 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 811 AM MDT SUN OCT 26 2014
EXTENDED AREA AND EXP OF DENSE FOG BASED ON CURRENT COVERAGE
REFLECTED ON VIS/FOG SATELLITE PRODUCTS...SURFACE OBS...AND LOCAL
SPOTTERS. RAP SEEMS TO HAVE GOOD HANDLE ON CURRENT FOG
COVERAGE/TIMING. FOG/STRATUS IS LIMITED TO JUST NORTH OF
STATIONARY FRONT...AND WITH DAYTIME MIXING INCREASING AND SURFACE
TROUGH/FRONT SHIFTING EAST THIS FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE WITHIN TIME
RANGE REFLECTED BY RAP (ROUGHLY THROUGH 16/17Z).
UPDATE ISSUED AT 541 AM MDT SUN OCT 26 2014
DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS HITCHCOCK AND RED WILLOW COUNTIES
OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO. WEB CAMS ACROSS HITCHCOCK COUNTY AND THE
MCCOOK AIRPORT ALL INDICATE VISIBILITIES AROUND 1/4 MILE OR LESS.
THEREFORE HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THESE TWO COUNTIES
FOR THE NEXT 3 HOURS. DENSE FOG IS LIKELY SPREADING INTO THE
COUNTIES TO THE WEST AND SOUTH BUT AM THINKING THE COVERAGE IS NOT
ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY. VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE FROM WEST
TO EAST THIS MORNING AS THE WEAK FRONT MOVES EASTWARD BRINGING DRIER
AIR WITH IT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 AM MDT SUN OCT 26 2014
LATEST SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. TO THE WEST AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WAS MOVING ONTO THE WEST COAST. BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND
THE RIDGE AREAS OF CLOUDS WERE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. AT
THE SURFACE A WEAK FRONT WAS LOCATED ALONG THE KS/NE BORDER THEN
TURNED SOUTHWEST OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS NEAR COLBY...EXTENDING INTO
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. EAST OF THE FRONT SOUTHEAST WINDS WERE ADVECTING
HIGHER DEW POINTS TO THE NORTH. AS A RESULT EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP
EAST OF THE FRONT DURING THE MORNING.
TODAY EXPECT THE FOG TO PERSIST THROUGH MID MORNING THEN BEGIN TO
DISSIPATE FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE WEAK FRONT MOVES EASTWARD. THE
LOWEST VISIBILITIES WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE KS/NE BORDER
WHERE SURFACE WINDS WILL CONVERGE AND DEW POINTS WILL BE HIGHEST.
MEANWHILE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
AREA TODAY FOLLOWING THE WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. DUE TO THE DRY
AIR MASS IN PLACE AM NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN SOME CLOUD COVER WITH
THE FRONT/UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSAGE. HIGHS TODAY WILL
BE NEAR RECORD VALUES.
TONIGHT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
WEST HALF OF THE AREA...REMAINING STATIONARY THROUGH THE NIGHT.
OVERNIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. WITH THE
CONTINUED DRY ENVIRONMENT AM NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE THAN SOME
CLOUDS FROM THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH PRIOR TO THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH.
LATER ON MOISTURE AND LIFT INCREASE OVERNIGHT OVER THE NORTHWEST
PART OF THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH BUT AHEAD OF
THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. TOWARD
SUNRISE 700-500MB FRONTOGENESIS DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHWEST PART OF
THE AREA AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS. WITH MOISTURE CONTINUING TO
INCREASE AND THETA-E LAPSE RATES NEAR ZERO...WILL PLACE A MENTION OF
RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST PART OF THE AREA.
SOUNDINGS DO NOT LOOK TOO GREAT FOR ANY RAINFALL ACTUALLY REACHING
THE GROUND DUE TO A DRY LAYER BELOW ROUGHLY 700MB AND THE 100MB DEEP
SATURATED LAYER AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS...BUT CANNOT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT ANY RAINFALL. BY SUNRISE THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF
THE AREA BRINGING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN BEHIND IT.
MONDAY MORNING THE BEST INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LINKED
WITH THE BAND OF 700-500MB FRONTOGENESIS MOVING SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF
THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL WILL
BE IN THE MORNING OVER THE WEST WHERE THE FRONTOGENESIS WILL BE
STRONGEST. THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR RAINFALL WILL AGAIN BE THE DRY
LAYER PRESENT BELOW ROUGHLY 700MB AND THE FAIRLY SHALLOW DEPTH OF
THE SATURATED LAYER AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES
AND THE TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST FURTHER AWAY FROM
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...THE 700-500MB
FRONTOGENESIS WEAKENS CAUSING THE LIFT TO WEAKEN. IN ADDITION THETA-
E LAPSE RATES WILL BECOME MORE STABLE FURTHER HINDERING RAINFALL
DEVELOPMENT. AS A RESULT WILL HAVE RAINFALL CHANCES DECLINING
THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON NORTH WINDS WILL
INCREASE...WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH BY NOON. THE WIND WILL GRADUALLY
DECLINE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS AN 850MB RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST.
MONDAY EVENING SOME WEAK 700-500MB FRONTOGENESIS WILL BE OVER THE
FAR SOUTH/EAST PART OF THE AREA PRIOR TO THE TROUGH AXIS MOVING
THROUGH. WILL KEEP MINIMAL RAINFALL CHANCES GOING JUST AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH AXIS WITH RAINFALL ENDING ONCE THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST
OF THE AREA. LATER IN THE EVENING AND THROUGH SUNRISE LOWS WILL
FALL TO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S ACROSS THE AREA. AS A RESULT
PATCHY TO WIDESPREAD FROST WILL DEVELOP...WITH SOME LOCATIONS WEST
OF HIGHWAY 27 POSSIBLY HAVING A HARD FREEZE. AT THIS TIME
LOCATIONS THAT WILL HAVE A HARD FREEZE ARE FAIRLY ISOLATED...BUT
THIS MAY CHANGE WITH LATER DATA.
TUESDAY DRY CONDITIONS RETURN BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AS
A RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. DURING THE NIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN COOL TO THE LOW TO MID 30S...ALLOWING PATCHY
TO AREAS OF FROST TO DEVELOP BY SUNRISE.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 115 AM MDT SUN OCT 26 2014
WEDNESDAY...SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS BEFORE EXITING
THE AREA BY SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.
850MB TEMPERATURES WARM ABOUT 9F FROM TUESDAYS VALUES SUPPORTING
HIGHS AROUND 70/LOW 70S ACROSS THE AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
30S WEST TO LOW 40S EAST.
THURSDAY...HIGH AMPLIFIED RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY TOWARD THE
AREA REACHING THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING. COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH LOWERING 850MB TEMPERATURES ABOUT 9F ACROSS THE
AREA SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. SFC RIDGE AXIS HOLDS
FIRM ACROSS THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE FURTHER WEST LOW LEVEL
FLOW VEERS TO THE SOUTHEAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S
BUT COULD SEE SLIGHTLY COLDER READINGS ACROSS THE EAST WHERE
PROXIMITY TO SFC HIGH AND LIGHT WINDS LASTS LONGER WHEN COMPARED TO
AREAS FURTHER WEST. HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
RIDGE AXIS APPROACHES. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.
FRIDAY...GFS/ECMWF IS BETTER AGREEMENT THIS MORNING WITH TIMING OF
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WHICH IS NOW FORECAST TO BE OVER THE AREA BY
DAYS END AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. AS THE SFC HIGH SLOWLY MOVES EAST
AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES. STRONGEST SOUTHEAST WINDS GENERALLY ALONG/WEST OF THE
COLORADO/KANSAS BORDER WHERE GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 30 MPH RANGE
POSSIBLE. GFS SHOWING 850MB TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO THURSDAYS VALUES
WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWING SOME COOLER AIR ACROSS THE AREA. BLENDING
THE TWO GIVES HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S (EAST TO WEST). LOWS
IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.
SATURDAY...LARGE UPPER TROUGH JUST COMING ASHORE ACROSS THE WEST IN
THE MORNING NEARLY REACHES THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY SUNRISE SUNDAY
MORNING PUTTING THE FORECAST AREA UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
STRONGER SFC WINDS MIGRATE TO THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA DURING
THE AFTERNOON AS SFC TROUGH MOVES INTO EASTERN COLORADO. PLENTIFUL
DRY AIR CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.
850MB TEMPERATURES WARM QUITE SIGNIFICANTLY AND WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S PER GFS SOLUTION...THE ECMWF QUITE A BIT COOLER
SO WILL GO WITH CURRENT FORECAST OF LOW TO MID 60S FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1122 AM MDT SUN OCT 26 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK
TERMINALS. GUSTY NW WINDS AROUND 20KT AT BOTH TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BECOME LIGHT AROUND SUNRISE AS MIXING DECREASES. AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR VIRGA TO
BOTH TERMINALS MONDAY...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE IS TOO LOW
TO ADD VCSH AT THIS TIME. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER BOTH TERMINALS BY 12Z WITH INCREASING WINDS
BEHIND THIS. GUSTS OUT OF THE NORTH BY MID MORNING MONDAY WILL BE
AROUND 30KT AT BOTH TERMINALS...AND A FEW STRONGER GUSTS CANT BE
RULED OUT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 301 AM MDT SUN OCT 26 2014
THIS AFTERNOON NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO NEAR 30 MPH EAST OF
THE COLORADO BORDER AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL FALL TO NEAR 15
PERCENT. CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE THE WINDS WILL BE DECLINING AS THE
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FALL. AT THIS POINT WILL NOT BE ISSUING ANY
HIGHLIGHTS FOR FIRE WEATHER DUE TO NO OVERLAP OF THE LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WITH BREEZY WINDS.
MONDAY AFTERNOON NORTH WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 40 MPH AND RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL FALL TO AROUND 20 PERCENT WEST OF HIGHWAY 27.
CURRENTLY RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO FALL BELOW
15 PERCENT...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THIS IN CASE HAZARDOUS
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE REACHED.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DR
SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...DR
FIRE WEATHER...JTL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
814 AM MDT SUN OCT 26 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 811 AM MDT SUN OCT 26 2014
EXTENDED AREA AND EXP OF DENSE FOG BASED ON CURRENT COVERAGE
REFLECTED ON VIS/FOG SATELLITE PRODUCTS...SURFACE OBS...AND LOCAL
SPOTTERS. RAP SEEMS TO HAVE GOOD HANDLE ON CURRENT FOG
COVERAGE/TIMING. FOG/STRATUS IS LIMITED TO JUST NORTH OF
STATIONARY FRONT...AND WITH DAYTIME MIXING INCREASING AND SURFACE
TROUGH/FRONT SHIFTING EAST THIS FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE WITHIN TIME
RANGE REFLECTED BY RAP (ROUGHLY THROUGH 16/17Z).
UPDATE ISSUED AT 541 AM MDT SUN OCT 26 2014
DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS HITCHCOCK AND RED WILLOW COUNTIES
OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO. WEB CAMS ACROSS HITCHCOCK COUNTY AND THE
MCCOOK AIRPORT ALL INDICATE VISIBILITIES AROUND 1/4 MILE OR LESS.
THEREFORE HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THESE TWO COUNTIES
FOR THE NEXT 3 HOURS. DENSE FOG IS LIKELY SPREADING INTO THE
COUNTIES TO THE WEST AND SOUTH BUT AM THINKING THE COVERAGE IS NOT
ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY. VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE FROM WEST
TO EAST THIS MORNING AS THE WEAK FRONT MOVES EASTWARD BRINGING DRIER
AIR WITH IT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 AM MDT SUN OCT 26 2014
LATEST SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. TO THE WEST AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WAS MOVING ONTO THE WEST COAST. BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND
THE RIDGE AREAS OF CLOUDS WERE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. AT
THE SURFACE A WEAK FRONT WAS LOCATED ALONG THE KS/NE BORDER THEN
TURNED SOUTHWEST OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS NEAR COLBY...EXTENDING INTO
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. EAST OF THE FRONT SOUTHEAST WINDS WERE ADVECTING
HIGHER DEW POINTS TO THE NORTH. AS A RESULT EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP
EAST OF THE FRONT DURING THE MORNING.
TODAY EXPECT THE FOG TO PERSIST THROUGH MID MORNING THEN BEGIN TO
DISSIPATE FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE WEAK FRONT MOVES EASTWARD. THE
LOWEST VISIBILITIES WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE KS/NE BORDER
WHERE SURFACE WINDS WILL CONVERGE AND DEW POINTS WILL BE HIGHEST.
MEANWHILE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
AREA TODAY FOLLOWING THE WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. DUE TO THE DRY
AIR MASS IN PLACE AM NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN SOME CLOUD COVER WITH
THE FRONT/UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSAGE. HIGHS TODAY WILL
BE NEAR RECORD VALUES.
TONIGHT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
WEST HALF OF THE AREA...REMAINING STATIONARY THROUGH THE NIGHT.
OVERNIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. WITH THE
CONTINUED DRY ENVIRONMENT AM NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE THAN SOME
CLOUDS FROM THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH PRIOR TO THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH.
LATER ON MOISTURE AND LIFT INCREASE OVERNIGHT OVER THE NORTHWEST
PART OF THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH BUT AHEAD OF
THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. TOWARD
SUNRISE 700-500MB FRONTOGENESIS DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHWEST PART OF
THE AREA AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS. WITH MOISTURE CONTINUING TO
INCREASE AND THETA-E LAPSE RATES NEAR ZERO...WILL PLACE A MENTION OF
RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST PART OF THE AREA.
SOUNDINGS DO NOT LOOK TOO GREAT FOR ANY RAINFALL ACTUALLY REACHING
THE GROUND DUE TO A DRY LAYER BELOW ROUGHLY 700MB AND THE 100MB DEEP
SATURATED LAYER AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS...BUT CANNOT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT ANY RAINFALL. BY SUNRISE THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF
THE AREA BRINGING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN BEHIND IT.
MONDAY MORNING THE BEST INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LINKED
WITH THE BAND OF 700-500MB FRONTOGENESIS MOVING SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF
THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL WILL
BE IN THE MORNING OVER THE WEST WHERE THE FRONTOGENESIS WILL BE
STRONGEST. THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR RAINFALL WILL AGAIN BE THE DRY
LAYER PRESENT BELOW ROUGHLY 700MB AND THE FAIRLY SHALLOW DEPTH OF
THE SATURATED LAYER AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES
AND THE TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST FURTHER AWAY FROM
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...THE 700-500MB
FRONTOGENESIS WEAKENS CAUSING THE LIFT TO WEAKEN. IN ADDITION THETA-
E LAPSE RATES WILL BECOME MORE STABLE FURTHER HINDERING RAINFALL
DEVELOPMENT. AS A RESULT WILL HAVE RAINFALL CHANCES DECLINING
THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON NORTH WINDS WILL
INCREASE...WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH BY NOON. THE WIND WILL GRADUALLY
DECLINE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS AN 850MB RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST.
MONDAY EVENING SOME WEAK 700-500MB FRONTOGENESIS WILL BE OVER THE
FAR SOUTH/EAST PART OF THE AREA PRIOR TO THE TROUGH AXIS MOVING
THROUGH. WILL KEEP MINIMAL RAINFALL CHANCES GOING JUST AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH AXIS WITH RAINFALL ENDING ONCE THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST
OF THE AREA. LATER IN THE EVENING AND THROUGH SUNRISE LOWS WILL
FALL TO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S ACROSS THE AREA. AS A RESULT
PATCHY TO WIDESPREAD FROST WILL DEVELOP...WITH SOME LOCATIONS WEST
OF HIGHWAY 27 POSSIBLY HAVING A HARD FREEZE. AT THIS TIME
LOCATIONS THAT WILL HAVE A HARD FREEZE ARE FAIRLY ISOLATED...BUT
THIS MAY CHANGE WITH LATER DATA.
TUESDAY DRY CONDITIONS RETURN BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AS
A RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. DURING THE NIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN COOL TO THE LOW TO MID 30S...ALLOWING PATCHY
TO AREAS OF FROST TO DEVELOP BY SUNRISE.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 115 AM MDT SUN OCT 26 2014
WEDNESDAY...SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS BEFORE EXITING
THE AREA BY SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.
850MB TEMPERATURES WARM ABOUT 9F FROM TUESDAYS VALUES SUPPORTING
HIGHS AROUND 70/LOW 70S ACROSS THE AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
30S WEST TO LOW 40S EAST.
THURSDAY...HIGH AMPLIFIED RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY TOWARD THE
AREA REACHING THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING. COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH LOWERING 850MB TEMPERATURES ABOUT 9F ACROSS THE
AREA SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. SFC RIDGE AXIS HOLDS
FIRM ACROSS THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE FURTHER WEST LOW LEVEL
FLOW VEERS TO THE SOUTHEAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S
BUT COULD SEE SLIGHTLY COLDER READINGS ACROSS THE EAST WHERE
PROXIMITY TO SFC HIGH AND LIGHT WINDS LASTS LONGER WHEN COMPARED TO
AREAS FURTHER WEST. HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
RIDGE AXIS APPROACHES. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.
FRIDAY...GFS/ECMWF IS BETTER AGREEMENT THIS MORNING WITH TIMING OF
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WHICH IS NOW FORECAST TO BE OVER THE AREA BY
DAYS END AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. AS THE SFC HIGH SLOWLY MOVES EAST
AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES. STRONGEST SOUTHEAST WINDS GENERALLY ALONG/WEST OF THE
COLORADO/KANSAS BORDER WHERE GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 30 MPH RANGE
POSSIBLE. GFS SHOWING 850MB TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO THURSDAYS VALUES
WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWING SOME COOLER AIR ACROSS THE AREA. BLENDING
THE TWO GIVES HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S (EAST TO WEST). LOWS
IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.
SATURDAY...LARGE UPPER TROUGH JUST COMING ASHORE ACROSS THE WEST IN
THE MORNING NEARLY REACHES THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY SUNRISE SUNDAY
MORNING PUTTING THE FORECAST AREA UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
STRONGER SFC WINDS MIGRATE TO THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA DURING
THE AFTERNOON AS SFC TROUGH MOVES INTO EASTERN COLORADO. PLENTIFUL
DRY AIR CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.
850MB TEMPERATURES WARM QUITE SIGNIFICANTLY AND WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S PER GFS SOLUTION...THE ECMWF QUITE A BIT COOLER
SO WILL GO WITH CURRENT FORECAST OF LOW TO MID 60S FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 546 AM MDT SUN OCT 26 2014
LIFR TO VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 12Z TAFS. VERY LOW VIS IS
BEING REPORTED AT KMCK IN THE FOG. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE IMPROVING AS A WEAK FRONT BRINGS
DRIER AIR IN FROM THE WEST. ONCE THE DRIER AIR MOVES IN CONDITIONS
SHOULD QUICKLY IMPROVE. MAIN CHALLENGE IS WHEN WILL CONDITIONS
START TO IMPROVE.
OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS
WILL DECLINE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON...BECOMING LIGHT BY THE
EARLY EVENING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 301 AM MDT SUN OCT 26 2014
THIS AFTERNOON NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO NEAR 30 MPH EAST OF
THE COLORADO BORDER AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL FALL TO NEAR 15
PERCENT. CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE THE WINDS WILL BE DECLINING AS THE
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FALL. AT THIS POINT WILL NOT BE ISSUING ANY
HIGHLIGHTS FOR FIRE WEATHER DUE TO NO OVERLAP OF THE LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WITH BREEZY WINDS.
MONDAY AFTERNOON NORTH WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 40 MPH AND RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL FALL TO AROUND 20 PERCENT WEST OF HIGHWAY 27.
CURRENTLY RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO FALL BELOW
15 PERCENT...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THIS IN CASE HAZARDOUS FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE REACHED.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR KSZ002-003.
CO...NONE.
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MDT /NOON CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
NEZ079>081.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DR
SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...JTL
FIRE WEATHER...JTL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
115 AM MDT SUN OCT 26 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW LARGE SCALE RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...EXTENDING NORTH INTO THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS IN PLACE OVER SE
COLORADO AND NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. A STALLED FRONT IS BISECTING OUR CWA...EXTENDING
FROM NE COLORADO TO CENTRAL KANSAS (ROUGHLY ALONG A KAKO-KGLD-
KHYS LINE).
WITH STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE AND MAIN STORM TRACK WELL NORTH OF THE
CWA...PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AGAIN
SUNDAY AND POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG TONIGHT.
REGARDING DENSE FOG...NAM/RUC/HRRR RH AND VIS FIELDS CONTINUE TO
SHOW POSSIBILITY OF DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT NORTH OF THE QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT. SREF PROBABILITIES ARE ALSO SHOWING THIS.
LOCATION OF FRONT AND MOISTURE POOLING ALONG/NORTH OF THIS FEATURE
WILL LIKELY BE CRITICAL TO DENSE FOG LOCATION...IN ADDITION NEAR
INVERSION LAYER WINDS 10-20KT MAY ALLOW FOR ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP
VIS HIGHER UNTIL LOW LEVELS COMPLETELY DECOUPLE AROUND SUNRISE.
THERE IS ALSO INDICATION FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS AND CURRENT
GFS THAT FRONT WILL BE FURTHER NORTH AND EAST WHICH WOULD ALLOW
LOWER TD VALUES TO ADVECT EASTWARD WITH SHIFT IN LOW LEVEL FLOW.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN FOG DEVELOPMENT...BUT LOCATION IS ENOUGH OF
A QUESTION TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUANCE OF ADVISORY DURING DAYTIME
UPDATE PACKAGE.
TEMP FORECAST SUNDAY IS ALSO COMPLICATED BY POSITION OF QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER TEMPS ALOFT NORTH OF THIS
FRONT. ANY LINGERING STRATUS/FOG WOULD ALSO THROW A WRENCH INTO
THINGS...ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTHEAST. OVERALL I THINK TEMPS WILL
BE VERY SIMILAR TODAY...WITH SLIGHTLY "COOLER" TEMPS NORTH OF THE
FRONT JUST LIKE TODAY. EITHER WAY TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
LOWER 80S FOR MOST PARTS OF THE CWA SUNDAY...AND IF FRONT LIFTS
NORTHEAST WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW COULD SUPPORT RECORD HIGHS IN
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 115 AM MDT SUN OCT 26 2014
WEDNESDAY...SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS BEFORE EXITING
THE AREA BY SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.
850MB TEMPERATURES WARM ABOUT 9F FROM TUESDAYS VALUES SUPPORTING
HIGHS AROUND 70/LOW 70S ACROSS THE AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
30S WEST TO LOW 40S EAST.
THURSDAY...HIGH AMPLIFIED RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY TOWARD THE
AREA REACHING THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING. COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH LOWERING 850MB TEMPERATURES ABOUT 9F ACROSS THE
AREA SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. SFC RIDGE AXIS HOLDS
FIRM ACROSS THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE FURTHER WEST LOW LEVEL
FLOW VEERS TO THE SOUTHEAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S
BUT COULD SEE SLIGHTLY COLDER READINGS ACROSS THE EAST WHERE
PROXIMITY TO SFC HIGH AND LIGHT WINDS LASTS LONGER WHEN COMPARED TO
AREAS FURTHER WEST. HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
RIDGE AXIS APPROACHES. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.
FRIDAY...GFS/ECMWF IS BETTER AGREEMENT THIS MORNING WITH TIMING OF
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WHICH IS NOW FORECAST TO BE OVER THE AREA BY
DAYS END AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. AS THE SFC HIGH SLOWLY MOVES EAST
AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES. STRONGEST SOUTHEAST WINDS GENERALLY ALONG/WEST OF THE
COLORADO/KANSAS BORDER WHERE GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 30 MPH RANGE
POSSIBLE. GFS SHOWING 850MB TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO THURSDAYS VALUES
WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWING SOME COOLER AIR ACROSS THE AREA. BLENDING
THE TWO GIVES HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S (EAST TO WEST). LOWS
IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.
SATURDAY...LARGE UPPER TROUGH JUST COMING ASHORE ACROSS THE WEST IN
THE MORNING NEARLY REACHES THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY SUNRISE SUNDAY
MORNING PUTTING THE FORECAST AREA UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
STRONGER SFC WINDS MIGRATE TO THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA DURING
THE AFTERNOON AS SFC TROUGH MOVES INTO EASTERN COLORADO. PLENTIFUL
DRY AIR CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.
850MB TEMPERATURES WARM QUITE SIGNIFICANTLY AND WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S PER GFS SOLUTION...THE ECWMF QUITE A BIT COOLER SO
WILL GO WITH CURRENT FORECAST OF LOW TO MID 60S FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1106 PM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT GLD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN AS VFR AT MCK AND TURN LIFR BETWEEN 11Z-14Z
AS LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WITH COOLING TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 50S PRODUCE FOG AND LOW CEILINGS.
CONDITIONS SHOULD RAPIDLY IMPROVE BACK TO VFR AFTER 14Z AS
NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE AND DRYER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA AS
TEMPERATURES ALSO INCREASE.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...LOCKHART
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1114 PM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW LARGE SCALE RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...EXTENDING NORTH INTO THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS IN PLACE OVER SE
COLORADO AND NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. A STALLED FRONT IS BISECTING OUR CWA...EXTENDING
FROM NE COLORADO TO CENTRAL KANSAS (ROUGHLY ALONG A KAKO-KGLD-
KHYS LINE).
WITH STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE AND MAIN STORM TRACK WELL NORTH OF THE
CWA...PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AGAIN
SUNDAY AND POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG TONIGHT.
REGARDING DENSE FOG...NAM/RUC/HRRR RH AND VIS FIELDS CONTINUE TO
SHOW POSSIBILITY OF DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT NORTH OF THE QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT. SREF PROBABILITIES ARE ALSO SHOWING THIS.
LOCATION OF FRONT AND MOISTURE POOLING ALONG/NORTH OF THIS FEATURE
WILL LIKELY BE CRITICAL TO DENSE FOG LOCATION...IN ADDITION NEAR
INVERSION LAYER WINDS 10-20KT MAY ALLOW FOR ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP
VIS HIGHER UNTIL LOW LEVELS COMPLETELY DECOUPLE AROUND SUNRISE.
THERE IS ALSO INDICATION FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS AND CURRENT
GFS THAT FRONT WILL BE FURTHER NORTH AND EAST WHICH WOULD ALLOW
LOWER TD VALUES TO ADVECT EASTWARD WITH SHIFT IN LOW LEVEL FLOW.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN FOG DEVELOPMENT...BUT LOCATION IS ENOUGH OF
A QUESTION TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUANCE OF ADVISORY DURING DAYTIME
UPDATE PACKAGE.
TEMP FORECAST SUNDAY IS ALSO COMPLICATED BY POSITION OF QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER TEMPS ALOFT NORTH OF THIS
FRONT. ANY LINGERING STRATUS/FOG WOULD ALSO THROW A WRENCH INTO
THINGS...ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTHEAST. OVERALL I THINK TEMPS WILL
BE VERY SIMILAR TODAY...WITH SLIGHTLY "COOLER" TEMPS NORTH OF THE
FRONT JUST LIKE TODAY. EITHER WAY TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
LOWER 80S FOR MOST PARTS OF THE CWA SUNDAY...AND IF FRONT LIFTS
NORTHEAST WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW COULD SUPPORT RECORD HIGHS IN
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 PM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014
UPPER FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AHEAD OF A
TROUGH THAT MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST MONDAY NIGHT WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW FOLLOWING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE TROUGH
WILL BE OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT.
THE UPPER TROUGH THAT COMES THROUGH HAS GOOD DYNAMICS BUT MOISTURE
IS LACKING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE DRY LOW LEVELS WITH
MARGINAL SATURATION AT MID LEVELS. ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION INTO MONDAY EVENING DUE TO THE TROUGH STILL
OVER THE AREA, THE GFS AND NAM TAKE THE BEST MOISTURE EAST OF THE FA
BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MAY BE OPTIMISTIC BUT WILL
KEEP THEM GOING. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO THE WINDY CATEGORY MONDAY
WITH GUSTS FROM 25 TO 35KTS. WIND SPEEDS COULD INCREASE TO LOW END
ADVISORY LEVELS. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT MONDAY NIGHT AND WITH
CLOUDS CLEARING AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 20S, WIDESPREAD FROST
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN COLORADO. TEMPERATURES MAY GET COLD
ENOUGH FOR A HARD FREEZE IN EASTERN COLORADO. FOR NOW WILL KEEP
FROST IN THE GRIDS AND MONITOR THE HARD FREEZE POTENTIAL.
SUBSIDENCE FOLLOWS THE EXITING TROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FA SO POPS WILL BE NIL.
MAX TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN
EASTERN COLORADO TO THE LOWER/MID 60S IN THE EASTERN FA. MIN
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 40S SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN COOL TO
THE LOWER TO MID 30S MONDAY NIGHT.
IN THE EXTENDED...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY
A RIDGE THAT WILL BUILD INTO THE ROCKIES THURSDAY AND INTO THE
PLAINS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP POPS NIL THROUGH
THIS PERIOD.
MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THIS PART OF THE
FORECAST WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S WEDNESDAY COOLING
TO THE LOWER 60S THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD COOL TO THE MID 30S. SOME FROST WILL BE
POSSIBLE AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
SLIGHTLY TO THE MID AND UPPER 30S WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1106 PM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT GLD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN AS VFR AT MCK AND TURN LIFR BETWEEN 11Z-14Z
AS LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WITH COOLING TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 50S PRODUCE FOG AND LOW CEILINGS.
CONDITIONS SHOULD RAPIDLY IMPROVE BACK TO VFR AFTER 14Z AS
NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE AND DRYER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA AS
TEMPERATURES ALSO INCREASE.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...LOCKHART
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
207 PM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 207 PM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014
FORECAST IS ON TRACK THIS AFTERNOON. SUNNY SKIES AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES ARE HELPING TO CREATE NEAR IDEAL OPPORTUNITIES TO GET
OUTDOORS AND EXPERIENCE PERFECT AUTUMN LIKE WEATHER. UPDATED HOURLY
GRIDS TO BRING THEM IN LINE WITH HOURLY OBSERVATIONS. NO OTHER
ADJUSTMENTS ATTM.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1143 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014
UPDATED THE FORECAST PACKAGE TO REMOVE THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY.
TWEAKED HOURLY GRIDS WHILE AT IT TO MATCH UP WITH MOST CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1018 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014
QUICK UPDATE TO EXTEND THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY THIS MORNING. LOW
AUTUMN SUN ANGLE HAS ALLOWED DENSE FOG TO LINGER LONGER THAN
ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED. UPDATED HOURLY GRIDS FOR LATEST TRENDS AS
WELL. TRIED TO REFLECT THE LOWER RISE IN TEMPS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS FOR THOSE AREAS EXPERIENCING FOG AS WELL.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 725 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014
THE DENSE FOG APPEARS TO BE RATHER STEADY STATE ACROSS THE
CUMBERLAND VALLEY. BELIEVE THIS IS STILL ON TRACK TO BREAK UP AFTER
14Z. BASICALLY THIS UPDATE WAS MAINLY TO FINE TUNE THE TEMPERATURE
AND DEW POINT GRIDS BASED ON THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE
BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014
06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK COLD FRONT ON ITS WAY THROUGH EASTERN
KENTUCKY. MUCH DRIER AIR IS FOUND JUST TO THE NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY
AND TANTALIZINGLY CLOSE. HOWEVER...TO THE SOUTH HIGHER MOISTURE IS
FOUND AND WITH THE CLEAR SKIES THIS IS RESULTING IN AREAS OF FOG THAT
HAS BECOME LOCALLY DENSE. WILL BE GOING WITH A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH 14Z PER HRRR/GLAMP GUIDANCE. A RIDGE TO
VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT HAS DEVELOPED AGAIN TONIGHT WITH MANY
LOW SPOTS RUNNING IN THE UPPER 40S WHILE RIDGES ARE HOLDING IN THE
MID AND UPPER 50S. THE APPROACHING FRONT IS KEEPING THINGS A BIT MORE
STIRRED IN THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA SO THE DIFFERENCES ARE
SMALLER TO THE NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY. MEANWHILE...WINDS ARE
GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN THE VALLEYS WITH SOME NORTHWEST
BREEZES NOTED IN NORTHERN PARTS OF EAST KENTUCKY.
THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL TAKE A TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST AWAY
FROM THE AREA ALLOWING THE FAST FLOW TO REBOUND OVER THE TENNESSEE
AND OHIO VALLEYS TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND AND START THE NEW WEEK.
THUS...A MODERATELY STRONG RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER EAST KENTUCKY DURING
THE DAY MONDAY WHILE THE NEXT TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WITH ITS ENERGY ZIPPING NORTHEAST OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. AT LEAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...
THE RIDGE WILL KEEP THIS ENERGY AT BAY AND WELL AWAY FROM EASTERN
KENTUCKY. GIVEN THE MODEL SIMILARITIES...HAVE GONE WITH A GENERAL
BLEND OF THE MODELS WITH AN EMPHASIS ON THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM12
AND HRRR FOR WX DETAILS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE AREAS OF DENSE FOG OVER THE SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE CWA BURNING OFF BY MID MORNING...LEAVING BEHIND SUNNY
SKIES THAT WILL HELP GIVE US ANOTHER WARM DAY. FOR TONIGHT...MILDER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...BUT THERE SHOULD BE LESS IN THE WAY OF FOG
THOUGH...MORE LIMITED TO JUST THE DEEPER VALLEYS...WITH ANOTHER
HEALTHY RIDGE AND VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT DEVELOPING. MONDAY WILL BE
A VERY WARM DAY AS THE FRONT MOVES BACK NORTH THROUGH THE AREA AS A
WARM ONE AND JUST SOME EXTRA CLOUDS. FOR MONDAY WE CAN EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES NEAR RECORD LEVELS ALONG WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE
AND SOUTHWEST WINDS.
FOR THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS...USED THE CONSSHORT...AND ITS BC VERSION...
AS A STARTING POINT THROUGH THE FIRST 18 TO 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST
FOLLOWED BY THE SUPERBLEND. DID MAKE SOME CHANGES TO BETTER REFLECT
THE RIDGE AND VALLEY DIFFERENCES ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA AGAIN TONIGHT. POPS THOROUGH THE PERIOD REMAINS LOW...IN LINE
WITH THE VALUES FROM THE MOS GUIDANCE.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014
MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT FOR
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...AND REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST FROM FRIDAY ONWARD INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THUS...HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST REMAINS FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.
TO START THE PERIOD...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE PUSHING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH A SURFACE LOW TRACKING ACROSS MICHIGAN.
THIS WILL FORCE A SURFACE COLD FRONT EASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY ON TUESDAY. AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH SHELTERED
VALLEYS EXPECTED TO DECOUPLE...WE SHOULD SEE A GOOD RIDGE/VALLEY
SPLIT MONDAY NIGHT WITH VALLEYS POSSIBLY STILL REACHING THE 40S AND
RIDGES CLOSER TO 60. ECMWF HAS MOVED TOWARDS THE FASTER GFS WITH THE
FRONTAL TIMING...SO IT NOW LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
EASTERN KENTUCKY BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH CLOUDS INCREASING THROUGH
THE DAY. WENT WITH A STRONG GRADIENT IN POPS FROM EAST TO WEST AS IT
NOW LOOKS LIKE RAIN SHOULD MAKE IT WELL INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY BY 00Z
TUESDAY. PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST. GIVEN THE MOISTURE AND
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND THE INCREASED MODEL AGREEMENT...HAVE
OPTED TO INCREASE POPS TO CATEGORICAL. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME
WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON TUESDAY...SO A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE FASTER TREND
PUTTING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.
STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH CLEARING WE WILL SEE IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY AS THIS WILL PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE ON
WHERE HIGHS END UP IN THE AFTERNOON. MORE CLOUDS MAY KEEP
TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST MAY REFLECT.
HOWEVER...OPTING TO SIDE WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS...ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER A BIT. REGARDLESS...IT WILL STILL BE
SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER THAN THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...KEEPING THE WEATHER QUIET THROUGH THIS PERIOD. BY
FRIDAY...MODEL DIFFERENCES BECOME TOO GREAT TO DISCERN HOW THINGS
WILL UNFOLD. IT DOES LOOK LIKE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST AND BRING SUBSTANTIALLY COLDER AIR INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY
FOR NEXT WEEKEND. HAVE OPTED TO STAY WELL BELOW GUIDANCE NEXT
WEEKEND. IT LOOKS LIKE MOST SCENARIOS HAS THE AREA LOCKED IN A GOOD
DEAL OF CLOUD COVER UNDERNEATH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...AT LEAST
THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY. THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF NOW ARE BOTH
FAVORABLE FOR A HARD FREEZE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING.
THIS IS OUTSIDE OF THE HWO PERIOD...SO FOR NOW WILL JUST PLAN TO GO
WITH SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY MORNING.
ALSO...OPTING TO GO WITH SOME LOW POPS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY. THE LATEST ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD SUPPORT SOME SNOW ON THE
HIGH TERRAIN SATURDAY MORNING. LOOKS LIKE A CHILLY WEEKEND FOR
HALLOWEEN FESTIVITIES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 207 PM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014
IN GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SME MAY BE THE EXCEPTION...EXPERIENCING A FEW HOURS OF MVFR MIST OR
LIGHT FOG THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS MONDAY. SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS
THE AREA. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE HAS ALSO HELPED TO MIX DOWN SOME DRIER
AIR THIS AFTERNOON FOR VERY PLEASANT CONDITIONS. BUT CHANGES ARE ON
THE HORIZON. RETURN FLOW WILL BE DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT TO USHER IN A
WARMER...MORE MOIST AIR MASS FROM THE SOUTH. AS A RESULT WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY WITH TIME AND INCREASE TO AROUND 5-8 KTS BY
MONDAY AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS TO OUR WEST.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RAY
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...RAY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
120 PM EDT Sun Oct 26 2014
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1114 AM EDT Sun Oct 26 2014
Area webcams and surface observations have shown improvement in
visibilities over the past hour. Have allowed the Dense Fog Advisory
to expire at 11 AM. A few lingering patches of fog will persist
through midday, but overall conditions have improved enough to let
the headline go.
Otherwise, a pleasant and sunny day is in store.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday)...
Issued at 310 AM EDT Sun Oct 25 2014
...Dense Fog This Morning...Near Record Warmth Monday...
The near term forecast focus has been on locally dense fog that has
developed across southern Kentucky this morning thanks to
light/variable surface winds and a relatively moist air mass.
Dewpoints range from the middle to upper 50s ahead of a weak surface
boundary that lies to the north. Until this boundary pushes through
the area later this morning, conditions will be ideal for radiation
fog. The HRRR model has been capturing the fog very well and shows
it lingering through mid morning before burning off. As such, a
dense fog advisory has been issued for the southern part of the
forecast area through mid morning to account for the expected
impacts due to locally 1/4 mile visibilities or less.
Once morning fog burns off, plan on a very pleasant day as high
pressure will be the dominant weather feature. Sunny skies, light
winds and above normal temperatures will be the rule. Compared to
yesterday, highs will be a few degrees lower, thanks to some cooler
air aloft that will work in from the northeast. Highs should still
top out around 70 across the northeast forecast area to middle 70s
in the southwest.
The upper level pattern will then transition from zonal to
southwesterly, paving the way for near record warmth for much of the
Ohio River valley Monday. 26.00z model guidance remains very
consistent with past model cycles showing that as a strong shortwave
trough advances across the northern Plains, the ensuing
southwesterly flow will bring a surge of +16 to +17C 850 mb air
across the region. Soundings show mixing up to around 850 mb, so
this supports highs in the lower to middle 80s. With near full
sunshine, kept forecast highs on the warm side of guidance. 26.00z
850 mb temperature standardized anomalies vary from +2 to nearly
+2.5 SD, which increases confidence in approaching records for
Monday. It will also be a breezy day with winds gusting to 30 mph at
times across much of the area.
Below are the records for Monday and Monday night.
Record Max Oct 27 Record Warm Low Oct 28
Louisville 84 (1940) 64 (1991 and 1984)
Lexington 87 (1940) 64 (1984)
Bowling Green 87 (1919) 65 (1984)
Frankfort 89 (1940) 61 (1899)
.LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)...
Issued at 315 AM EDT Sun Oct 26 2014
After a warm and breezy night Monday night with lows generally in
the 58-63 degree range, a cold front will advance into the region on
Tuesday. Widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms will
accompany the front, with just about everybody standing a chance at
getting some rain. The front will be losing some of its punch as it
enters the Ohio Valley and the best dynamics will be to our north
across IN/OH, but we`ll still have a chance at some thunder here
coincident with a narrow band of surface based instability around
mid day. High temperatures should be in the 70s with winds gusting
to around 20 or 25 mph (maybe some higher gusts in thunderstorms).
Tuesday night the front will push off to the east and our showers
will taper off from northwest to southeast. There could still be a
few left over rumbles of thunder in the Lake Cumberland region
during the evening hours. General rainfall totals are progged in
the quarter to half inch range, though amounts will vary with the
convective nature of the precipitation. Overnight lows behind the
front will be in the 40s.
During the remainder of the week several waves will pass overhead in
progressive WNW flow, but a lack of deep moisture for these waves to
work with will lead to a mostly dry forecast for now. Daily highs
will decrease from around 60 on Wednesday to around 50 (probably 40s
in the Blue Grass) on Saturday as Canadian high pressure dives SSE
right into the Ohio Valley by the weekend. Morning lows on Saturday
should be around the freezing mark, and below freezing Saturday
night.
&&
.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 120 PM EDT Sun Oct 26 2014
VFR conditions will prevail the remainder of this afternoon and
evening with light and variable winds as surface high pressure
slides across the region.
Tricky forecast for the overnight period as a warm front lifts back
north across the area. Expect to see deteriorating conditions after
Midnight at BWG as most likely scenario will be low stratus. Data
suggest ceilings could go down around minimums. Some data suggests
fog, however think that stronger low level jetting will be more
conducive to low stratus than fog. Also a bit concerned about low
level wind shear potential at the interface of the warm front where
nearly calm surface winds will be below a veering and strengthening
low level jet around 30 knots. At this point, think it will be too
marginal, however will continue to monitor with future forecasts.
SDF can expect the low stratus to begin sometime in the pre-dawn
hours, generally aroun 4 AM EDT, with LEX a couple hours later.
Conditions will scatter out by late morning and early afternoon,
with a strong SW gradient taking over. Gusts to 30 mph will be
possible.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Update.........BJS
Short Term.....ZBT
Long Term......13
Aviation.......BJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1143 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1143 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014
UPDATED THE FORECAST PACKAGE TO REMOVE THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY.
TWEAKED HOURLY GRIDS WHILE AT IT TO MATCH UP WITH MOST CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1018 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014
QUICK UPDATE TO EXTEND THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY THIS MORNING. LOW
AUTUMN SUN ANGLE HAS ALLOWED DENSE FOG TO LINGER LONGER THAN
ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED. UPDATED HOURLY GRIDS FOR LATEST TRENDS AS
WELL. TRIED TO REFLECT THE LOWER RISE IN TEMPS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS FOR THOSE AREAS EXPERIENCING FOG AS WELL.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 725 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014
THE DENSE FOG APPEARS TO BE RATHER STEADY STATE ACROSS THE
CUMBERLAND VALLEY. BELIEVE THIS IS STILL ON TRACK TO BREAK UP AFTER
14Z. BASICALLY THIS UPDATE WAS MAINLY TO FINE TUNE THE TEMPERATURE
AND DEW POINT GRIDS BASED ON THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE
BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014
06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK COLD FRONT ON ITS WAY THROUGH EASTERN
KENTUCKY. MUCH DRIER AIR IS FOUND JUST TO THE NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY
AND TANTALIZINGLY CLOSE. HOWEVER...TO THE SOUTH HIGHER MOISTURE IS
FOUND AND WITH THE CLEAR SKIES THIS IS RESULTING IN AREAS OF FOG THAT
HAS BECOME LOCALLY DENSE. WILL BE GOING WITH A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH 14Z PER HRRR/GLAMP GUIDANCE. A RIDGE TO
VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT HAS DEVELOPED AGAIN TONIGHT WITH MANY
LOW SPOTS RUNNING IN THE UPPER 40S WHILE RIDGES ARE HOLDING IN THE
MID AND UPPER 50S. THE APPROACHING FRONT IS KEEPING THINGS A BIT MORE
STIRRED IN THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA SO THE DIFFERENCES ARE
SMALLER TO THE NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY. MEANWHILE...WINDS ARE
GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN THE VALLEYS WITH SOME NORTHWEST
BREEZES NOTED IN NORTHERN PARTS OF EAST KENTUCKY.
THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL TAKE A TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST AWAY
FROM THE AREA ALLOWING THE FAST FLOW TO REBOUND OVER THE TENNESSEE
AND OHIO VALLEYS TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND AND START THE NEW WEEK.
THUS...A MODERATELY STRONG RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER EAST KENTUCKY DURING
THE DAY MONDAY WHILE THE NEXT TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WITH ITS ENERGY ZIPPING NORTHEAST OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. AT LEAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...
THE RIDGE WILL KEEP THIS ENERGY AT BAY AND WELL AWAY FROM EASTERN
KENTUCKY. GIVEN THE MODEL SIMILARITIES...HAVE GONE WITH A GENERAL
BLEND OF THE MODELS WITH AN EMPHASIS ON THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM12
AND HRRR FOR WX DETAILS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE AREAS OF DENSE FOG OVER THE SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE CWA BURNING OFF BY MID MORNING...LEAVING BEHIND SUNNY
SKIES THAT WILL HELP GIVE US ANOTHER WARM DAY. FOR TONIGHT...MILDER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...BUT THERE SHOULD BE LESS IN THE WAY OF FOG
THOUGH...MORE LIMITED TO JUST THE DEEPER VALLEYS...WITH ANOTHER
HEALTHY RIDGE AND VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT DEVELOPING. MONDAY WILL BE
A VERY WARM DAY AS THE FRONT MOVES BACK NORTH THROUGH THE AREA AS A
WARM ONE AND JUST SOME EXTRA CLOUDS. FOR MONDAY WE CAN EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES NEAR RECORD LEVELS ALONG WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE
AND SOUTHWEST WINDS.
FOR THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS...USED THE CONSSHORT...AND ITS BC VERSION...
AS A STARTING POINT THROUGH THE FIRST 18 TO 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST
FOLLOWED BY THE SUPERBLEND. DID MAKE SOME CHANGES TO BETTER REFLECT
THE RIDGE AND VALLEY DIFFERENCES ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA AGAIN TONIGHT. POPS THOROUGH THE PERIOD REMAINS LOW...IN LINE
WITH THE VALUES FROM THE MOS GUIDANCE.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014
MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT FOR
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...AND REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST FROM FRIDAY ONWARD INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THUS...HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST REMAINS FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.
TO START THE PERIOD...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE PUSHING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH A SURFACE LOW TRACKING ACROSS MICHIGAN.
THIS WILL FORCE A SURFACE COLD FRONT EASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY ON TUESDAY. AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH SHELTERED
VALLEYS EXPECTED TO DECOUPLE...WE SHOULD SEE A GOOD RIDGE/VALLEY
SPLIT MONDAY NIGHT WITH VALLEYS POSSIBLY STILL REACHING THE 40S AND
RIDGES CLOSER TO 60. ECMWF HAS MOVED TOWARDS THE FASTER GFS WITH THE
FRONTAL TIMING...SO IT NOW LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
EASTERN KENTUCKY BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH CLOUDS INCREASING THROUGH
THE DAY. WENT WITH A STRONG GRADIENT IN POPS FROM EAST TO WEST AS IT
NOW LOOKS LIKE RAIN SHOULD MAKE IT WELL INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY BY 00Z
TUESDAY. PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST. GIVEN THE MOISTURE AND
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND THE INCREASED MODEL AGREEMENT...HAVE
OPTED TO INCREASE POPS TO CATEGORICAL. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME
WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON TUESDAY...SO A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE FASTER TREND
PUTTING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.
STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH CLEARING WE WILL SEE IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY AS THIS WILL PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE ON
WHERE HIGHS END UP IN THE AFTERNOON. MORE CLOUDS MAY KEEP
TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST MAY REFLECT.
HOWEVER...OPTING TO SIDE WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS...ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER A BIT. REGARDLESS...IT WILL STILL BE
SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER THAN THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...KEEPING THE WEATHER QUIET THROUGH THIS PERIOD. BY
FRIDAY...MODEL DIFFERENCES BECOME TOO GREAT TO DISCERN HOW THINGS
WILL UNFOLD. IT DOES LOOK LIKE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST AND BRING SUBSTANTIALLY COLDER AIR INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY
FOR NEXT WEEKEND. HAVE OPTED TO STAY WELL BELOW GUIDANCE NEXT
WEEKEND. IT LOOKS LIKE MOST SCENARIOS HAS THE AREA LOCKED IN A GOOD
DEAL OF CLOUD COVER UNDERNEATH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...AT LEAST
THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY. THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF NOW ARE BOTH
FAVORABLE FOR A HARD FREEZE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING.
THIS IS OUTSIDE OF THE HWO PERIOD...SO FOR NOW WILL JUST PLAN TO GO
WITH SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY MORNING.
ALSO...OPTING TO GO WITH SOME LOW POPS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY. THE LATEST ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD SUPPORT SOME SNOW ON THE
HIGH TERRAIN SATURDAY MORNING. LOOKS LIKE A CHILLY WEEKEND FOR
HALLOWEEN FESTIVITIES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 740 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014
DENSE FOG AS ENGULFED THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY TAF SITES WITH VLIFR
CONDITIONS. THESE SHOULD START TO IMPROVE AFTER 14Z. FOR THIS HAVE
INCLUDED A TEMPO DURING THE TRANSITION TO VFR. ONCE THE FOG BURNS
OFF...EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT GENERALLY FROM THE NORTHWEST.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RAY
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
1114 AM EDT Sun Oct 26 2014
...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1114 AM EDT Sun Oct 26 2014
Area webcams and surface observations have shown improvement in
visibilities over the past hour. Have allowed the Dense Fog Advisory
to expire at 11 AM. A few lingering patches of fog will persist
through midday, but overall conditions have improved enough to let
the headline go.
Otherwise, a pleasant and sunny day is in store.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday)...
Issued at 310 AM EDT Sun Oct 25 2014
...Dense Fog This Morning...Near Record Warmth Monday...
The near term forecast focus has been on locally dense fog that has
developed across southern Kentucky this morning thanks to
light/variable surface winds and a relatively moist air mass.
Dewpoints range from the middle to upper 50s ahead of a weak surface
boundary that lies to the north. Until this boundary pushes through
the area later this morning, conditions will be ideal for radiation
fog. The HRRR model has been capturing the fog very well and shows
it lingering through mid morning before burning off. As such, a
dense fog advisory has been issued for the southern part of the
forecast area through mid morning to account for the expected
impacts due to locally 1/4 mile visibilities or less.
Once morning fog burns off, plan on a very pleasant day as high
pressure will be the dominant weather feature. Sunny skies, light
winds and above normal temperatures will be the rule. Compared to
yesterday, highs will be a few degrees lower, thanks to some cooler
air aloft that will work in from the northeast. Highs should still
top out around 70 across the northeast forecast area to middle 70s
in the southwest.
The upper level pattern will then transition from zonal to
southwesterly, paving the way for near record warmth for much of the
Ohio River valley Monday. 26.00z model guidance remains very
consistent with past model cycles showing that as a strong shortwave
trough advances across the northern Plains, the ensuing
southwesterly flow will bring a surge of +16 to +17C 850 mb air
across the region. Soundings show mixing up to around 850 mb, so
this supports highs in the lower to middle 80s. With near full
sunshine, kept forecast highs on the warm side of guidance. 26.00z
850 mb temperature standardized anomalies vary from +2 to nearly
+2.5 SD, which increases confidence in approaching records for
Monday. It will also be a breezy day with winds gusting to 30 mph at
times across much of the area.
Below are the records for Monday and Monday night.
Record Max Oct 27 Record Warm Low Oct 28
Louisville 84 (1940) 64 (1991 and 1984)
Lexington 87 (1940) 64 (1984)
Bowling Green 87 (1919) 65 (1984)
Frankfort 89 (1940) 61 (1899)
.LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)...
Issued at 315 AM EDT Sun Oct 26 2014
After a warm and breezy night Monday night with lows generally in
the 58-63 degree range, a cold front will advance into the region on
Tuesday. Widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms will
accompany the front, with just about everybody standing a chance at
getting some rain. The front will be losing some of its punch as it
enters the Ohio Valley and the best dynamics will be to our north
across IN/OH, but we`ll still have a chance at some thunder here
coincident with a narrow band of surface based instability around
mid day. High temperatures should be in the 70s with winds gusting
to around 20 or 25 mph (maybe some higher gusts in thunderstorms).
Tuesday night the front will push off to the east and our showers
will taper off from northwest to southeast. There could still be a
few left over rumbles of thunder in the Lake Cumberland region
during the evening hours. General rainfall totals are progged in
the quarter to half inch range, though amounts will vary with the
convective nature of the precipitation. Overnight lows behind the
front will be in the 40s.
During the remainder of the week several waves will pass overhead in
progressive WNW flow, but a lack of deep moisture for these waves to
work with will lead to a mostly dry forecast for now. Daily highs
will decrease from around 60 on Wednesday to around 50 (probably 40s
in the Blue Grass) on Saturday as Canadian high pressure dives SSE
right into the Ohio Valley by the weekend. Morning lows on Saturday
should be around the freezing mark, and below freezing Saturday
night.
&&
.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 620 AM EDT Sun Oct 26 2014
1/4sm fog will continue to impact BWG through around 13z this
morning, then slowly erode as drier air finally makes its way south.
High pressure and light/variable winds will then be the rule for the
afternoon, providing VFR conditions to all TAF sites. Late tonight,
numerical guidance is once again suggesting that BWG will go down in
fog but with an increasing southwesterly flow /20 kts at 500 feet/
feel the setup is not as favorable for fog. Another plausible
scenario, which is reflected in some of the forecast models, is that
the low stratus currently across western TN and southwest KY will
not fully mix out today and then advect toward BWG later tonight
with the southwest wind push. Not very confident in this scenario
either but brought in a scattered MVFR cloud deck at BWG to suggest
the possibility.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Update.........BJS
Short Term.....ZBT
Long Term......13
Aviation.......ZBT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1018 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1018 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014
QUICK UPDATE TO EXTEND THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY THIS MORNING. LOW
AUTUMN SUN ANGLE HAS ALLOWED DENSE FOG TO LINGER LONGER THAN
ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED. UPDATED HOURLY GRIDS FOR LATEST TRENDS AS
WELL. TRIED TO REFLECT THE LOWER RISE IN TEMPS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS FOR THOSE AREAS EXPERIENCING FOG AS WELL.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 725 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014
THE DENSE FOG APPEARS TO BE RATHER STEADY STATE ACROSS THE
CUMBERLAND VALLEY. BELIEVE THIS IS STILL ON TRACK TO BREAK UP AFTER
14Z. BASICALLY THIS UPDATE WAS MAINLY TO FINE TUNE THE TEMPERATURE
AND DEW POINT GRIDS BASED ON THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE
BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014
06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK COLD FRONT ON ITS WAY THROUGH EASTERN
KENTUCKY. MUCH DRIER AIR IS FOUND JUST TO THE NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY
AND TANTALIZINGLY CLOSE. HOWEVER...TO THE SOUTH HIGHER MOISTURE IS
FOUND AND WITH THE CLEAR SKIES THIS IS RESULTING IN AREAS OF FOG THAT
HAS BECOME LOCALLY DENSE. WILL BE GOING WITH A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH 14Z PER HRRR/GLAMP GUIDANCE. A RIDGE TO
VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT HAS DEVELOPED AGAIN TONIGHT WITH MANY
LOW SPOTS RUNNING IN THE UPPER 40S WHILE RIDGES ARE HOLDING IN THE
MID AND UPPER 50S. THE APPROACHING FRONT IS KEEPING THINGS A BIT MORE
STIRRED IN THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA SO THE DIFFERENCES ARE
SMALLER TO THE NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY. MEANWHILE...WINDS ARE
GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN THE VALLEYS WITH SOME NORTHWEST
BREEZES NOTED IN NORTHERN PARTS OF EAST KENTUCKY.
THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL TAKE A TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST AWAY
FROM THE AREA ALLOWING THE FAST FLOW TO REBOUND OVER THE TENNESSEE
AND OHIO VALLEYS TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND AND START THE NEW WEEK.
THUS...A MODERATELY STRONG RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER EAST KENTUCKY DURING
THE DAY MONDAY WHILE THE NEXT TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WITH ITS ENERGY ZIPPING NORTHEAST OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. AT LEAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...
THE RIDGE WILL KEEP THIS ENERGY AT BAY AND WELL AWAY FROM EASTERN
KENTUCKY. GIVEN THE MODEL SIMILARITIES...HAVE GONE WITH A GENERAL
BLEND OF THE MODELS WITH AN EMPHASIS ON THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM12
AND HRRR FOR WX DETAILS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE AREAS OF DENSE FOG OVER THE SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE CWA BURNING OFF BY MID MORNING...LEAVING BEHIND SUNNY
SKIES THAT WILL HELP GIVE US ANOTHER WARM DAY. FOR TONIGHT...MILDER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...BUT THERE SHOULD BE LESS IN THE WAY OF FOG
THOUGH...MORE LIMITED TO JUST THE DEEPER VALLEYS...WITH ANOTHER
HEALTHY RIDGE AND VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT DEVELOPING. MONDAY WILL BE
A VERY WARM DAY AS THE FRONT MOVES BACK NORTH THROUGH THE AREA AS A
WARM ONE AND JUST SOME EXTRA CLOUDS. FOR MONDAY WE CAN EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES NEAR RECORD LEVELS ALONG WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE
AND SOUTHWEST WINDS.
FOR THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS...USED THE CONSSHORT...AND ITS BC VERSION...
AS A STARTING POINT THROUGH THE FIRST 18 TO 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST
FOLLOWED BY THE SUPERBLEND. DID MAKE SOME CHANGES TO BETTER REFLECT
THE RIDGE AND VALLEY DIFFERENCES ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA AGAIN TONIGHT. POPS THOROUGH THE PERIOD REMAINS LOW...IN LINE
WITH THE VALUES FROM THE MOS GUIDANCE.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014
MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT FOR
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...AND REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST FROM FRIDAY ONWARD INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THUS...HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST REMAINS FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.
TO START THE PERIOD...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE PUSHING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH A SURFACE LOW TRACKING ACROSS MICHIGAN.
THIS WILL FORCE A SURFACE COLD FRONT EASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY ON TUESDAY. AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH SHELTERED
VALLEYS EXPECTED TO DECOUPLE...WE SHOULD SEE A GOOD RIDGE/VALLEY
SPLIT MONDAY NIGHT WITH VALLEYS POSSIBLY STILL REACHING THE 40S AND
RIDGES CLOSER TO 60. ECMWF HAS MOVED TOWARDS THE FASTER GFS WITH THE
FRONTAL TIMING...SO IT NOW LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
EASTERN KENTUCKY BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH CLOUDS INCREASING THROUGH
THE DAY. WENT WITH A STRONG GRADIENT IN POPS FROM EAST TO WEST AS IT
NOW LOOKS LIKE RAIN SHOULD MAKE IT WELL INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY BY 00Z
TUESDAY. PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST. GIVEN THE MOISTURE AND
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND THE INCREASED MODEL AGREEMENT...HAVE
OPTED TO INCREASE POPS TO CATEGORICAL. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME
WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON TUESDAY...SO A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE FASTER TREND
PUTTING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.
STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH CLEARING WE WILL SEE IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY AS THIS WILL PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE ON
WHERE HIGHS END UP IN THE AFTERNOON. MORE CLOUDS MAY KEEP
TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST MAY REFLECT.
HOWEVER...OPTING TO SIDE WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS...ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER A BIT. REGARDLESS...IT WILL STILL BE
SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER THAN THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...KEEPING THE WEATHER QUIET THROUGH THIS PERIOD. BY
FRIDAY...MODEL DIFFERENCES BECOME TOO GREAT TO DISCERN HOW THINGS
WILL UNFOLD. IT DOES LOOK LIKE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST AND BRING SUBSTANTIALLY COLDER AIR INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY
FOR NEXT WEEKEND. HAVE OPTED TO STAY WELL BELOW GUIDANCE NEXT
WEEKEND. IT LOOKS LIKE MOST SCENARIOS HAS THE AREA LOCKED IN A GOOD
DEAL OF CLOUD COVER UNDERNEATH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...AT LEAST
THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY. THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF NOW ARE BOTH
FAVORABLE FOR A HARD FREEZE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING.
THIS IS OUTSIDE OF THE HWO PERIOD...SO FOR NOW WILL JUST PLAN TO GO
WITH SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY MORNING.
ALSO...OPTING TO GO WITH SOME LOW POPS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY. THE LATEST ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD SUPPORT SOME SNOW ON THE
HIGH TERRAIN SATURDAY MORNING. LOOKS LIKE A CHILLY WEEKEND FOR
HALLOWEEN FESTIVITIES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 740 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014
DENSE FOG AS ENGULFED THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY TAF SITES WITH VLIFR
CONDITIONS. THESE SHOULD START TO IMPROVE AFTER 14Z. FOR THIS HAVE
INCLUDED A TEMPO DURING THE TRANSITION TO VFR. ONCE THE FOG BURNS
OFF...EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT GENERALLY FROM THE NORTHWEST.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR KYZ068-069-
079-080-083>088-116-117.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RAY
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
740 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 725 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014
THE DENSE FOG APPEARS TO BE RATHER STEADY STATE ACROSS THE
CUMBERLAND VALLEY. BELIEVE THIS IS STILL ON TRACK TO BREAK UP AFTER
14Z. BASICALLY THIS UPDATE WAS MAINLY TO FINE TUNE THE TEMPERATURE
AND DEWPOINT GRIDS BASED ON THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE
BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014
06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK COLD FRONT ON ITS WAY THROUGH EASTERN
KENTUCKY. MUCH DRIER AIR IS FOUND JUST TO THE NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY
AND TANTALIZINGLY CLOSE. HOWEVER...TO THE SOUTH HIGHER MOISTURE IS
FOUND AND WITH THE CLEAR SKIES THIS IS RESULTING IN AREAS OF FOG THAT
HAS BECOME LOCALLY DENSE. WILL BE GOING WITH A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH 14Z PER HRRR/GLAMP GUIDANCE. A RIDGE TO
VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT HAS DEVELOPED AGAIN TONIGHT WITH MANY
LOW SPOTS RUNNING IN THE UPPER 40S WHILE RIDGES ARE HOLDING IN THE
MID AND UPPER 50S. THE APPROACHING FRONT IS KEEPING THINGS A BIT MORE
STIRRED IN THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA SO THE DIFFERENCES ARE
SMALLER TO THE NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY. MEANWHILE...WINDS ARE
GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN THE VALLEYS WITH SOME NORTHWEST
BREEZES NOTED IN NORTHERN PARTS OF EAST KENTUCKY.
THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL TAKE A TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST AWAY
FROM THE AREA ALLOWING THE FAST FLOW TO REBOUND OVER THE TENNESSEE
AND OHIO VALLEYS TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND AND START THE NEW WEEK.
THUS...A MODERATELY STRONG RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER EAST KENTUCKY DURING
THE DAY MONDAY WHILE THE NEXT TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WITH ITS ENERGY ZIPPING NORTHEAST OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. AT LEAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...
THE RIDGE WILL KEEP THIS ENERGY AT BAY AND WELL AWAY FROM EASTERN
KENTUCKY. GIVEN THE MODEL SIMILARITIES...HAVE GONE WITH A GENERAL
BLEND OF THE MODELS WITH AN EMPHASIS ON THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM12
AND HRRR FOR WX DETAILS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE AREAS OF DENSE FOG OVER THE SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE CWA BURNING OFF BY MID MORNING...LEAVING BEHIND SUNNY
SKIES THAT WILL HELP GIVE US ANOTHER WARM DAY. FOR TONIGHT...MILDER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...BUT THERE SHOULD BE LESS IN THE WAY OF FOG
THOUGH...MORE LIMITED TO JUST THE DEEPER VALLEYS...WITH ANOTHER
HEALTHY RIDGE AND VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT DEVELOPING. MONDAY WILL BE
A VERY WARM DAY AS THE FRONT MOVES BACK NORTH THROUGH THE AREA AS A
WARM ONE AND JUST SOME EXTRA CLOUDS. FOR MONDAY WE CAN EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES NEAR RECORD LEVELS ALONG WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE
AND SOUTHWEST WINDS.
FOR THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS...USED THE CONSSHORT...AND ITS BC VERSION...
AS A STARTING POINT THROUGH THE FIRST 18 TO 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST
FOLLOWED BY THE SUPERBLEND. DID MAKE SOME CHANGES TO BETTER REFLECT
THE RIDGE AND VALLEY DIFFERENCES ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA AGAIN TONIGHT. POPS THOROUGH THE PERIOD REMAINS LOW...IN LINE
WITH THE VALUES FROM THE MOS GUIDANCE.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014
MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT FOR
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...AND REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST FROM FRIDAY ONWARD INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THUS...HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST REMAINS FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.
TO START THE PERIOD...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE PUSHING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH A SURFACE LOW TRACKING ACROSS MICHIGAN.
THIS WILL FORCE A SURFACE COLD FRONT EASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY ON TUESDAY. AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH SHELTERED
VALLEYS EXPECTED TO DECOUPLE...WE SHOULD SEE A GOOD RIDGE/VALLEY
SPLIT MONDAY NIGHT WITH VALLEYS POSSIBLY STILL REACHING THE 40S AND
RIDGES CLOSER TO 60. ECMWF HAS MOVED TOWARDS THE FASTER GFS WITH THE
FRONTAL TIMING...SO IT NOW LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
EASTERN KENTUCKY BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH CLOUDS INCREASING THROUGH
THE DAY. WENT WITH A STRONG GRADIENT IN POPS FROM EAST TO WEST AS IT
NOW LOOKS LIKE RAIN SHOULD MAKE IT WELL INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY BY 00Z
TUESDAY. PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST. GIVEN THE MOISTURE AND
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND THE INCREASED MODEL AGREEMENT...HAVE
OPTED TO INCREASE POPS TO CATEGORICAL. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME
WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON TUESDAY...SO A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE FASTER TREND
PUTTING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.
STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH CLEARING WE WILL SEE IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY AS THIS WILL PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE ON
WHERE HIGHS END UP IN THE AFTERNOON. MORE CLOUDS MAY KEEP
TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST MAY REFLECT.
HOWEVER...OPTING TO SIDE WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS...ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER A BIT. REGARDLESS...IT WILL STILL BE
SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER THAN THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...KEEPING THE WEATHER QUIET THROUGH THIS PERIOD. BY
FRIDAY...MODEL DIFFERENCES BECOME TOO GREAT TO DISCERN HOW THINGS
WILL UNFOLD. IT DOES LOOK LIKE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST AND BRING SUBSTANTIALLY COLDER AIR INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY
FOR NEXT WEEKEND. HAVE OPTED TO STAY WELL BELOW GUIDANCE NEXT
WEEKEND. IT LOOKS LIKE MOST SCENARIOS HAS THE AREA LOCKED IN A GOOD
DEAL OF CLOUD COVER UNDERNEATH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...AT LEAST
THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY. THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF NOW ARE BOTH
FAVORABLE FOR A HARD FREEZE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING.
THIS IS OUTSIDE OF THE HWO PERIOD...SO FOR NOW WILL JUST PLAN TO GO
WITH SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY MORNING.
ALSO...OPTING TO GO WITH SOME LOW POPS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY. THE LATEST ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD SUPPORT SOME SNOW ON THE
HIGH TERRAIN SATURDAY MORNING. LOOKS LIKE A CHILLY WEEKEND FOR
HALLOWEEN FESTIVITIES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 740 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014
DENSE FOG AS ENGULFED THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY TAF SITES WITH VLIFR
CONDITIONS. THESE SHOULD START TO IMPROVE AFTER 14Z. FOR THIS HAVE
INCLUDED A TEMPO DURING THE TRANSITION TO VFR. ONCE THE FOG BURNS
OFF...EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT GENERALLY FROM THE NORTHWEST.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR KYZ068-069-
079-080-083>088-116-117.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
638 AM EDT Sun Oct 26 2014
...Updated Aviation and Forecast Discussions...
...Forecast Update...
Issued at 635 AM EDT Sun Oct 26 2014
No major changes to forecast in the near term regarding dense fog
advisory. Observations continue to show that visibilities remain
less than 1/4 mile across the southern tier of the forecast area.
The drier air mass is slowly working its way south, which will help
to improve conditions. Based on the latest timing, it will take a
couple more hours, so the dense fog advisory still looks good
through 9 AM EDT.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday)...
Issued at 310 AM EDT Sun Oct 25 2014
...Dense Fog This Morning...Near Record Warmth Monday...
The near term forecast focus has been on locally dense fog that has
developed across southern Kentucky this morning thanks to
light/variable surface winds and a relatively moist air mass.
Dewpoints range from the middle to upper 50s ahead of a weak surface
boundary that lies to the north. Until this boundary pushes through
the area later this morning, conditions will be ideal for radiation
fog. The HRRR model has been capturing the fog very well and shows
it lingering through mid morning before burning off. As such, a
dense fog advisory has been issued for the southern part of the
forecast area through mid morning to account for the expected
impacts due to locally 1/4 mile visibilities or less.
Once morning fog burns off, plan on a very pleasant day as high
pressure will be the dominant weather feature. Sunny skies, light
winds and above normal temperatures will be the rule. Compared to
yesterday, highs will be a few degrees lower, thanks to some cooler
air aloft that will work in from the northeast. Highs should still
top out around 70 across the northeast forecast area to middle 70s
in the southwest.
The upper level pattern will then transition from zonal to
southwesterly, paving the way for near record warmth for much of the
Ohio River valley Monday. 26.00z model guidance remains very
consistent with past model cycles showing that as a strong shortwave
trough advances across the northern Plains, the ensuing
southwesterly flow will bring a surge of +16 to +17C 850 mb air
across the region. Soundings show mixing up to around 850 mb, so
this supports highs in the lower to middle 80s. With near full
sunshine, kept forecast highs on the warm side of guidance. 26.00z
850 mb temperature standardized anomalies vary from +2 to nearly
+2.5 SD, which increases confidence in approaching records for
Monday. It will also be a breezy day with winds gusting to 30 mph at
times across much of the area.
Below are the records for Monday and Monday night.
Record Max Oct 27 Record Warm Low Oct 28
Louisville 84 (1940) 64 (1991 and 1984)
Lexington 87 (1940) 64 (1984)
Bowling Green 87 (1919) 65 (1984)
Frankfort 89 (1940) 61 (1899)
.LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)...
Issued at 315 AM EDT Sun Oct 26 2014
After a warm and breezy night Monday night with lows generally in
the 58-63 degree range, a cold front will advance into the region on
Tuesday. Widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms will
accompany the front, with just about everybody standing a chance at
getting some rain. The front will be losing some of its punch as it
enters the Ohio Valley and the best dynamics will be to our north
across IN/OH, but we`ll still have a chance at some thunder here
coincident with a narrow band of surface based instability around
mid day. High temperatures should be in the 70s with winds gusting
to around 20 or 25 mph (maybe some higher gusts in thunderstorms).
Tuesday night the front will push off to the east and our showers
will taper off from northwest to southeast. There could still be a
few left over rumbles of thunder in the Lake Cumberland region
during the evening hours. General rainfall totals are progged in
the quarter to half inch range, though amounts will vary with the
convective nature of the precipitation. Overnight lows behind the
front will be in the 40s.
During the remainder of the week several waves will pass overhead in
progressive WNW flow, but a lack of deep moisture for these waves to
work with will lead to a mostly dry forecast for now. Daily highs
will decrease from around 60 on Wednesday to around 50 (probably 40s
in the Blue Grass) on Saturday as Canadian high pressure dives SSE
right into the Ohio Valley by the weekend. Morning lows on Saturday
should be around the freezing mark, and below freezing Saturday
night.
&&
.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 620 AM EDT Sun Oct 26 2014
1/4sm fog will continue to impact BWG through around 13z this
morning, then slowly erode as drier air finally makes its way south.
High pressure and light/variable winds will then be the rule for the
afternoon, providing VFR conditions to all TAF sites. Late tonight,
numerical guidance is once again suggesting that BWG will go down in
fog but with an increasing southwesterly flow /20 kts at 500 feet/
feel the setup is not as favorable for fog. Another plausible
scenario, which is reflected in some of the forecast models, is that
the low stratus currently across western TN and southwest KY will
not fully mix out today and then advect toward BWG later tonight
with the southwest wind push. Not very confident in this scenario
either but a MVFR cloud deck may happen at BWG after 06z tonight.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 10 AM EDT /9 AM CDT/ this morning FOR
KYZ026-027-061>067-070>078-081-082.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Update.........ZBT
Short Term.....ZBT
Long Term......13
Aviation.......ZBT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
338 AM EDT Sun Oct 26 2014
.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday)...
Issued at 310 AM EDT Sun Oct 25 2014
...Dense Fog This Morning...Near Record Warmth Monday...
The near term forecast focus has been on dense fog that has
developed across southern into central Kentucky this morning
thanks to light/variable surface winds and a relatively moist air
mass characterized by dewpoints in the middle to upper 50s. This
is all ahead of a weak surface boundary that lies to the north. Until
this boundary pushes through the area later this morning,
conditions will remain ideal for radiation fog. The HRRR model
has been capturing the fog very well and shows it lingering
through mid morning before burning off. As such, a dense fog
advisory has been issued for the southern part of the forecast area
through mid morning to account for the expected impacts due to
locally 1/4 mile visibilities or less.
Once morning fog burns off, plan on a very pleasant day as high
pressure will be the dominant weather feature. Sunny skies, light
winds and above normal temperatures will be the rule. Compared to
yesterday, highs will be a few degrees lower, thanks to cooler
air aloft that will work in from the northeast. Highs should still
top out around 70 across the northeast forecast area to middle 70s
in the southwest.
The upper level pattern will then transition from zonal to
southwesterly, paving the way for near record warmth for much of the
Ohio River valley Monday. 26.00z model guidance remains very
consistent with past model cycles showing that as a strong shortwave
trough advances across the northern Plains, the ensuing
southwesterly flow will bring a surge of +16 to +17C 850 mb air
across the region. Soundings show mixing up to around 850 mb, so
this supports highs in the lower to middle 80s. With near full
sunshine, kept forecast highs on the warm side of guidance. 26.00z
850 mb temperature standardized anomalies vary from +2 to nearly
+2.5 SD, which increases confidence in approaching records for
Monday. It will also be a breezy day with winds gusting to 30 mph at
times across much of the area.
Below are the records for Monday and Monday night.
Record Max Oct 27 Record Warm Low Oct 28
Louisville 84 (1940) 64 (1991 and 1984)
Lexington 87 (1940) 64 (1984)
Bowling Green 87 (1919) 65 (1984)
Frankfort 89 (1940) 61 (1899)
.LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)...
Issued at 315 AM EDT Sun Oct 26 2014
After a warm and breezy night Monday night with lows generally in
the 58-63 degree range, a cold front will advance into the region on
Tuesday. Widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms will
accompany the front, with just about everybody standing a chance at
getting some rain. The front will be losing some of its punch as it
enters the Ohio Valley and the best dynamics will be to our north
across MI/IN/OH, but we`ll still have a chance at some thunder here
coincident with a narrow band of surface based instability around
mid day. High temperatures should be in the 70s with winds gusting
to around 20 or 25 mph.
Tuesday night the front will push off to the east and our showers
will taper off from northwest to southeast. There could still be a
few left over rumbles of thunder in the Lake Cumberland region
during the evening hours. General rainfall totals are progged in
the quarter to half inch range, though amounts will vary with the
convective nature of the precipitation. Overnight lows behind the
front will be in the 40s.
During the remainder of the week several waves will pass overhead in
progressive WNW flow, but a lack of deep moisture for these waves to
work with will lead to a mostly dry forecast for now. Daily highs
will decrease from around 60 on Wednesday to around 50 (probably 40s
in the Blue Grass) on Saturday as Canadian high pressure dives SSE
right into the Ohio Valley by the weekend. Morning lows on Saturday
should be around the freezing mark, and below freezing Saturday
night.
&&
.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 110 AM EDT Sun Oct 26 2014
Main aviation concern is fog development in the very near term at
BWG and to some degree at LEX. Higher low-level moisture pool ahead
of a boundary that lies across southern Indiana combined with
light/variable surface winds has resulted in MVFR fog at BWG and
surrounding sites. Although latest forecast guidance does not
suggest a long period of IFR conditions to develop at BWG, soundings
show favorable light surface winds and near surface saturation to
linger through the early morning hours. However, just off the
surface /950 mb/ winds remain elevated overnight and this may limit
dense fog formation. For now, will continue tempo period of IFR for
early this morning at BWG but confidence is not very high. At LEX,
patchy MVFR fog remains a possibility while VFR conditions will
prevail at SDF.
Otherwise, once morning fog burns off, weak high pressure and drier
air will work into the region so plan on sunny skies and
light/variable winds for the TAF sites. By late in the period, winds
will begin to take on a southerly flow but remain less than 5 kts.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 10 AM EDT /9 AM CDT/ this morning FOR
KYZ026-027-061>067-070>078-081-082.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Short Term........ZBT
Long Term.........13
Aviation..........ZBT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
320 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014
06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK COLD FRONT ON ITS WAY THROUGH EASTERN
KENTUCKY. MUCH DRIER AIR IS FOUND JUST TO THE NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY
AND TANTALIZINGLY CLOSE. HOWEVER...TO THE SOUTH HIGHER MOISTURE IS
FOUND AND WITH THE CLEAR SKIES THIS IS RESULTING IN AREAS OF FOG THAT
HAS BECOME LOCALLY DENSE. WILL BE GOING WITH A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH 14Z PER HRRR/GLAMP GUIDANCE. A RIDGE TO
VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT HAS DEVELOPED AGAIN TONIGHT WITH MANY
LOW SPOTS RUNNING IN THE UPPER 40S WHILE RIDGES ARE HOLDING IN THE
MID AND UPPER 50S. THE APPROACHING FRONT IS KEEPING THINGS A BIT MORE
STIRRED IN THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA SO THE DIFFERENCES ARE
SMALLER TO THE NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY. MEANWHILE...WINDS ARE
GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN THE VALLEYS WITH SOME NORTHWEST
BREEZES NOTED IN NORTHERN PARTS OF EAST KENTUCKY.
THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL TAKE A TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST AWAY
FROM THE AREA ALLOWING THE FAST FLOW TO REBOUND OVER THE TENNESSEE
AND OHIO VALLEYS TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND AND START THE NEW WEEK.
THUS...A MODERATELY STRONG RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER EAST KENTUCKY DURING
THE DAY MONDAY WHILE THE NEXT TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WITH ITS ENERGY ZIPPING NORTHEAST OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. AT LEAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...
THE RIDGE WILL KEEP THIS ENERGY AT BAY AND WELL AWAY FROM EASTERN
KENTUCKY. GIVEN THE MODEL SIMILARITIES...HAVE GONE WITH A GENERAL
BLEND OF THE MODELS WITH AN EMPHASIS ON THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM12
AND HRRR FOR WX DETAILS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE AREAS OF DENSE FOG OVER THE SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE CWA BURNING OFF BY MID MORNING...LEAVING BEHIND SUNNY
SKIES THAT WILL HELP GIVE US ANOTHER WARM DAY. FOR TONIGHT...MILDER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...BUT THERE SHOULD BE LESS IN THE WAY OF FOG
THOUGH...MORE LIMITED TO JUST THE DEEPER VALLEYS...WITH ANOTHER
HEALTHY RIDGE AND VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT DEVELOPING. MONDAY WILL BE
A VERY WARM DAY AS THE FRONT MOVES BACK NORTH THROUGH THE AREA AS A
WARM ONE AND JUST SOME EXTRA CLOUDS. FOR MONDAY WE CAN EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES NEAR RECORD LEVELS ALONG WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE
AND SOUTHWEST WINDS.
FOR THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS...USED THE CONSSHORT...AND ITS BC VERSION...
AS A STARTING POINT THROUGH THE FIRST 18 TO 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST
FOLLOWED BY THE SUPERBLEND. DID MAKE SOME CHANGES TO BETTER REFLECT
THE RIDGE AND VALLEY DIFFERENCES ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA AGAIN TONIGHT. POPS THOROUGH THE PERIOD REMAINS LOW...IN LINE
WITH THE VALUES FROM THE MOS GUIDANCE.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014
MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT FOR
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...AND REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST FROM FRIDAY ONWARD INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THUS...HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST REMAINS FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.
TO START THE PERIOD...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE PUSHING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH A SURFACE LOW TRACKING ACROSS MICHIGAN.
THIS WILL FORCE A SURFACE COLD FRONT EASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY ON TUESDAY. AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH SHELTERED
VALLEYS EXPECTED TO DECOUPLE...WE SHOULD SEE A GOOD RIDGE/VALLEY
SPLIT MONDAY NIGHT WITH VALLEYS POSSIBLY STILL REACHING THE 40S AND
RIDGES CLOSER TO 60. ECMWF HAS MOVED TOWARDS THE FASTER GFS WITH THE
FRONTAL TIMING...SO IT NOW LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
EASTERN KENTUCKY BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH CLOUDS INCREASING THROUGH
THE DAY. WENT WITH A STRONG GRADIENT IN POPS FROM EAST TO WEST AS IT
NOW LOOKS LIKE RAIN SHOULD MAKE IT WELL INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY BY 00Z
TUESDAY. PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST. GIVEN THE MOISTURE AND
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND THE INCREASED MODEL AGREEMENT...HAVE
OPTED TO INCREASE POPS TO CATEGORICAL. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME
WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON TUESDAY...SO A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE FASTER TREND
PUTTING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.
STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH CLEARING WE WILL SEE IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY AS THIS WILL PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE ON
WHERE HIGHS END UP IN THE AFTERNOON. MORE CLOUDS MAY KEEP
TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST MAY REFLECT.
HOWEVER...OPTING TO SIDE WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS...ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER A BIT. REGARDLESS...IT WILL STILL BE
SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER THAN THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...KEEPING THE WEATHER QUIET THROUGH THIS PERIOD. BY
FRIDAY...MODEL DIFFERENCES BECOME TOO GREAT TO DISCERN HOW THINGS
WILL UNFOLD. IT DOES LOOK LIKE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST AND BRING SUBSTANTIALLY COLDER AIR INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY
FOR NEXT WEEKEND. HAVE OPTED TO STAY WELL BELOW GUIDANCE NEXT
WEEKEND. IT LOOKS LIKE MOST SCENARIOS HAS THE AREA LOCKED IN A GOOD
DEAL OF CLOUD COVER UNDERNEATH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...AT LEAST
THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY. THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF NOW ARE BOTH
FAVORABLE FOR A HARD FREEZE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING.
THIS IS OUTSIDE OF THE HWO PERIOD...SO FOR NOW WILL JUST PLAN TO GO
WITH SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY MORNING.
ALSO...OPTING TO GO WITH SOME LOW POPS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY. THE LATEST ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD SUPPORT SOME SNOW ON THE
HIGH TERRAIN SATURDAY MORNING. LOOKS LIKE A CHILLY WEEKEND FOR
HALLOWEEN FESTIVITIES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014
WITH THE CLEAR SKIES ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT...
EXPECT THE SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG TO FORM IN THE VALLEYS OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS AND LINGER PAST SUNRISE. SOME OF THE VALLEYS WILL BE DOWN
TO VLIFR. FOR THE TAF STATIONS...ONLY EXPECT SOME MVFR VSBY NEAR
DAWN AT LOZ...VFR FOR JKL AND SJS...AND AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF IFR OR
LOWER FOR SME WHERE THE FOG HAS SET IN EARLY. ONCE THE FOG BURNS
OFF...LATER THIS MORNING EXPECT CLEAR SKIES. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
402 PM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW UPR RDG OVER
CENTRAL NAMERICA BLDG TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LKS BTWN SLOWLY DEPARTING
CLOSED LO OVER SE CANADA AND ANOTHER DEEP TROF OVER THE W. AT THE
SFC...HI PRES RDG AXIS AND DRY AIRMASS SHOWN ON THE 12Z INL/MPX
RAOBS...WHERE 12Z PWAT WAS 0.25-0.30 INCH...ARE PRESSING EWD THRU
THE UPR LKS...BRINGING MOSUNNY SKIES TO UPR MI. SOME SC LINGERS OVER
THE FAR E UNDER LLVL NW FLOW/THERMAL TROF AHEAD OF THE RDG AXIS...
AND SOME CI SPILLING OVER THE UPR RDG AXIS TO THE NE OF H85 WARM FNT
IN THE NRN PLAINS IS MOVING INTO THE W. DEEPENING SFC LO PRES IS
MOVING SLOWLY E THRU THE NRN PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF THE WRN TROF...BUT
OVERALL DRYNESS OF THE AIRMASS IN THE NRN PLAINS HAS PREVENTED ANY
PCPN AND EVEN MUCH CLD COVER SO FAR. 12Z H85 TEMPS WERE AOA 20C IN
THE NCENTRAL PLAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS LO.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUSED ON CLD/PCPN TRENDS
ASSOCIATED WITH APRCHG WARM FNT.
TNGT WL START OFF MAINLY CLEAR WITH JUST SOME SCT HI CLDS...BUT THEN
CLDS WL THICKEN THRU THE NGT WITH DVLPG WAD BTWN HI PRES RDG
DEPARTING TO THE E AND LO PRES MOVING TOWARD LK WINNIPEG AND NE OF
ATTENDANT WARM FNT MOVING NE THRU WI. ALTHOUGH LINGERING LLVL DRY
AIR AND PASSAGE OF SHARPER H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC TO THE NW MAY TEND TO
LIMIT POPS...FCST DEEP ISENTROPIC ASCENT WITH VIGOROUS H85-5
MOISTENING LIFTING PWAT TOWARD ARND AN INCH OR 225 PCT OF NORMAL
OVER THE W BY 12Z MON...BAND OF FCST H85-7 FGEN TO THE NE OF THE H85
WARM FNT AND INCRSG UPR DVGC JUSTIFY BUMPING POPS UP A BIT OVER THE
W HALF LATE. BUT OVERALL INITIAL DRYNESS OF THE AIRMASS WARRANTS A
FCST OF NO HIER THAN HI CHC POPS. MAINTAINED MENTION OF SOME THUNDER
OVER THE W LATER AT NGT...WHEN MID LVL LAPSE RATES ARE FCST TO
STEEPEN AND FCST SDNGS INDICATE MUCAPE UP TO 500 J/KG. THE STEEPER
MID LVL LAPSE RATES FCST ARE REASONABLE GIVEN THE VERY HI H85 TEMPS
OBSVD IN THE PLAINS TODAY. DESPITE THE EXPECTED INCRSG CLDS/MSTR...
DRYNESS OF THE AIRMASS IN PLACE SUGGESTS LOWERING FCST LO TEMPS A
BIT. EXPECT THE LOWEST MIN TEMPS TOWARD THE LO END OF GUIDANCE OVER
THE INTERIOR E...WHERE CLDS WL INCRS LATEST. HOURLY TEMPS FCST WL
SHOW RELATIVELY EARLY MINS WITH RISING READINGS LATER TNGT UNDER THE
INCRSG/THICKENING CLDS.
MON...INCRSD POPS TO LIKELY ON MON MRNG OVER THE E HALF WHERE MODELS
SHOW INCRSG UPR DVGC/BAND OF H85-7 FGEN AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT
COINCIDENT WITH INCRSG PWAT UP TO ABOUT 215 PCT OF NORMAL. MODEL
FCST SDNGS INDICATE MUCAPE 500-1000 J/KG WHEN LIFTING FM ARND H8 ON
MON. GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF THIS ELEVATED INSTABILITY...NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION THERE COULD BE SOME HAIL UNDER ANY STRONGER STORM.
ARRIVAL OF DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC/MID LVL DRYING AND CAPPING W-E IN
THE AFTN FOLLOWING EXIT OF THE UPR DVGC/FGEN BAND WL DIMINISH THE
POPS. TENDED TOWARD THE LO END OF GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS ON MON
GIVEN HI SFC-H85 STABILITY/CLDS N OF SFC WARM FNT. ADDED A MENTION
OF SOME FOG LATE IN THE DAY OVER THE CENTRAL WITH INCRSGLY MOIST
UPSLOPE LLVL SE FLOW UNDER MID LVL DRYING IN ADVANCE OF SLOWLY
APRCHG WARM FNT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014
THE FORECAST FOR MON NIGHT/TUE REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN DUE TO
MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY /AND RESULTING
CYCLOGENESIS/ ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION. THE REAL DIFFERENCES ARE DUE TO THE PLACEMENT OF THE
SHORTWAVE. THE GFS KEEPS THE BEST ENERGY FARTHER N...RESULTING IN
THE DRY SLOT BEING OVER THE CWA MUCH OF MON NIGHT AND TUE. ON THE
OTHER HAND...THE NAM IS MUCH FARTHER S...RESULTING IN A DEEPER SFC
LOW THAT MOVES FROM CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN TO ERN UPPER MI...WHICH
MEAN MORE RAIN. THE ECMWF IS BETWEEN THE NAM AND GFS AND ONLY BRINGS
THE DRY SLOT INTO FAR SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...RESULTING IN A
WETTER FORECAST THAN THE GFS. VERY DIFFICULT TO LEAN TOO FAR ONE WAY
OR ANOTHER AT THIS POINT GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY
AND SFC CYCLOGENESIS...SO WILL GO WITH A CONSENSUS BLEND.
ADDITIONALLY...TUE WILL END UP BEING GUSTY...BUT THE EXTENT OF SUCH
DEPENDS LARGELY ON THE TRACK/STRENGTH OF THE SFC LOW...SO HARD TO
GET TOO SPECIFIC ON EXPECTED GUSTS AT THIS POINT. THE KEWEENAW
SHOULD SEE THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER UPPER MI DUE TO THE FAVORABLE
WLY WINDS DIRECTION.
TUE NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT...THE SYSTEM THAT MOVED THROUGH ON TUE WILL
MOVE INTO NRN QUEBEC BY LATE WED AS A SFC RIDGE MOVES TO THE WRN
CWA. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IMPROVES DURING THIS TIME AS CONDITIONS
TRANSITION TO A MORE FAVORABLE LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED RAIN/SNOW
SETUP...WHICH ENTAILS LESS MODEL VARIABILITY IN THIS CASE. BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NW...BUT WILL START TO BACK TO THE W
/FROM W TO E/ ON WED AFTERNOON AS THE RIDGE MOVES IN. THERE WILL BE
AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE
PREVIOUS SYSTEM INTO WED MORNING...BUT DRIER AIR WILL START TO
BECOME MORE DOMINANT ON WED. AS FOR TEMPS...850MB TEMPS WILL FALL
FROM AROUND -2C AT 00Z WED TO AROUND -6C AT 12Z WED. DURING THE DAY
ON WED...850MB TEMPS WILL FALL A COUPLE OF DEGREES OVER ERN LAKE
SUPERIOR WHILE WARMING A COUPLE OF DEGREES OVER THE WRN LAKE.
OVERALL...LOOKS LIKE A GOOD SETUP FOR LAKE EFFECT RAIN...WITH SNOW
BECOMING MORE LIKELY IN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN LATE TUE NIGHT AND
TO A LESSER EXTENT ON WED. SHOULD SEE A DIMINISHING TREND TO PRECIP
ON WED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WRN CWA. DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE ANY
SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.
STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY FOR LATE IN THE WEEK GIVEN POOR MODEL RUN
TO RUN CONTINUITY AND MODEL DISAGREEMENT...COMBINED WITH THE USUAL
CAVEATS WITH SHORTWAVES 5 DAYS OUT. THE GFS BRINGS THE SHORTWAVE
RIGHT ACROSS THE CWA...WHILE THE ECMWF MOVES THE SHORTWAVE FARTHER
SW. IN ANY CASE...MODELS HAVE SHOWN POOR RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY WITH
THE SHORTWAVE ITSELF...SO SYNOPTIC PRECIP IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.
THANKFULLY...THERE IS HIGHER CONFIDENCE WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW DUE TO
MODEL AGREEMENT ON NNW LOW LEVEL WINDS AND 850MB TEMPS AOB -10C FOR
MUCH OF FRI AND POSSIBLY INTO FRI NIGHT. THE LES SHOULD RAMP UP THU
NIGHT WHEN THE COLDER AIR SURGES INTO THE AREA /DEPENDENT ON
SHORTWAVE TIMING AS WELL/ AND SHOULD DIMINISH FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AS
A SFC RIDGE MAY SHIFT ACROSS THE CWA. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS IN NNW WIND SNOWBELTS EVEN IF THE SHORTWAVE DOES NOT
DIRECTLY IMPACT THE CWA...BUT WOULD BE GREATER IF THE SHORTWAVE DOES
IMPACT THE AREA. SHOULD ALSO BE WINDY FOR AT LEAST A SHORT PERIOD
THU NIGHT INTO FRI /DEPENDING ON THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE
SHORTWAVE/ AS A 1030MB SFC HIGH MOVES FROM THE WNW FAIRLY QUICKLY
BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE. SHOULD SEE A QUICK PERIOD OF GALES FROM THE
EVENT...BUT WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL THINGS BECOME MORE CERTAIN TO
GET TOO SPECIFIC ON WINDS SPEEDS.
SHOULD SEE ANY REMAINING LAKE EFFECT PRECIP DIE OUT/MOVE OUT ON SAT
AS MODELS SHOW THE SFC HIGH SHIFT E OF THE CWA. WILL RUN WITH A
CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...WHICH WILL SHOW A
WARMING TREND AS AN UPPER RIDGE PUSHES IN FROM THE W.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 121 PM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014
ALTHOUGH HIER CLDS WL BE ON THE INCRS LATER THIS AFTN/THIS EVNG IN
ADVANCE OF AN APRCHG WARM FNT...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
WITH DRYNESS OF LLVL AIRMASS SHOWN ON LOCAL 12Z RAOBS. BUT AS THE
INCRSG SSE WIND AHEAD OF THE WARM FNT DRAWS MORE MSTR INTO THE UPR
LKS...SOME -SHRA WL DVLP LATE TNGT. CLD BASES WL LOWER...BUT
LINGERING NEAR SFC DRY LYR SHOULD MAINTAIN A VFR CIG. RETAINED
MENTION OF MARGINAL LLWS AT IWD WITH CLOSER APRCH OF THE WARM
FNT/INVRN AND EXPECTED STRONGER LLJ AT THAT LOCATION. AFTER 12Z
MON...THE LLVLS WL MOISTEN SUFFICIENTLY TO WARRANT FCST MVFR CIGS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL LEAD TO DECREASING WINDS
TODAY. AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD WITH WINDS LESS THAN 20 KTS WITH THE
HIGH PRESSURE...SE WINDS INCREASE TO 30 KTS OVER MAINLY EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR ON MONDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. ONCE
THIS LOW MOVES TO THE EAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR ON TUESDAY...WEST WINDS
TO 30 KTS AND POSSIBLY UP TO GALE FORCE OF 35 KTS WILL DEVELOP LATE
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT NORTHWEST AND STAY
UP TO 30 KTS INTO WEDNESDAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING TO LESS
THAN 25 KTS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK...POSSIBLY LEADING TO GALES TO 35
KTS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...TITUS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
116 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW WNW FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE UPR GREAT LKS BTWN UPR RDG EXTENDING FM TEXAS THRU THE
ROCKIES AND DEEPENING UPR TROF NEAR HUDSON BAY ENHANCED BY STRONG
SHRTWV DIGGING THRU NW ONTARIO THAT IS ACCOMPANIED BY 12HR H5 HGT
FALLS UP TO 130M. TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BTWN ASSOCIATED LO PRES NEAR
JAMES BAY AND HI PRES IN THE NRN PLAINS IS ALLOWING FOR GUSTY WNW
WINDS OVER UPR MI EARLY THIS AFTN. THE 12Z INL RAOB SHOWED WINDS
NEAR 40 KTS AT 3-4K FT AGL...AND SFC WIND GUSTS HAVE REACHED AOA 40
MPH OVER MUCH OF THE CWA WITH DAYTIME HEATING ALLOWING THE MIXING OF
THOSE HIER WINDS TO THE SFC. THE AIRMASS STREAMING INTO UPR MI IS A
DRY ONE... SO THERE HAVE ONLY BEEN SOME SCT DIURNAL CU/SC. BUT MORE
SC IS NOTED OVER ONTARIO CLOSER TO CORE OF COLDER AIR AT H85. LOOKING
WELL UPSTREAM...THERE IS A POTENT SHRTWV APRCHG THE PAC NW.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED ON WINDS INTO THIS
EVNG AND THEN ON TEMPS FOR SUN.
LATE TDAY/TNGT...WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING AND SLOW BUT
STEADY APRCH OF SFC HI PRES RDG FM THE W/DIMINISHING H925 WINDS...
THE GUSTY WNW WINDS THAT LINGER THRU THE AFTN WL DIMINISH. HIER
WAVES WHIPPED UP BY THE STRONG WINDS THIS AFTN AND IMPACTING AREAS
FM ONTONAGON THRU COPPER HARBOR AND E OF MARQUETTE MAY CAUSE SOME
MINOR BEACH EROSION ALONG THE LK SUP SHORE. SKIES SHOULD BE MOCLR...
BUT AS THE FLOW VEERS A BIT MORE TO THE NW OVER THE E AND ADVECTS
SOMEWHAT COLDER H85 AIR INTO THAT AREA...SOME OF THE BKN SC IN
ONTARIO MAY MOVE INTO THE ERN CWA. THIS CAD WL ALSO MAINTAIN GUSTY
WINDS OVER THE E FOR A BIT LONGER. A STEADY NW WIND THRU THE NGT WL
LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP DROP EVEN WHERE SKIES ARE CLR. EXPECT THE
LOWEST MIN TEMPS OVER THE INTERIOR W...WHERE WINDS WL BECOME LIGHTER
TOWARD DAYBREAK WITH THE CLOSER APRCH OF SFC HI PRES RDG.
SUN...HI PRES RDG CROSSING UPR MI WL BRING A MAINLY SUNNY DAY...
EXCEPT FOR SOME SCT DAYTIME CU OVER THE E CLOSER TO SLOWLY DEPARTING
H85 THERMAL TROF. STEADY NW WINDS OVER THE E IN THE MRNG WL DIMINISH
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE RDG. WITH H85 TEMPS REBOUNDING TO 10C OVER
THE W BY 00Z MON...MAX TEMPS SHOULD RISE INTO THE 50S AND PERHAPS
TOUCH 60 OVER THE W WHERE DVLPG SE FLOW WL DOWNSLOPE. MORE
PERSISTENT NW FLOW OFF THE CHILLY WATERS OF LK SUP WL KEEP THE E
COOLEST...AND TEMPS THERE NEAR LK SUP MAY BE HARD PRESSED TO REACH
50.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014
A 500MB RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE CWA AT 00Z MON...BUT WILL MOVE E BY
12Z MON AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NRN PLAINS ACCOMPANIED BY
A BROAD SFC LOW ACROSS MN. EXPECT SHOWERS /AND POSSIBLY SOME
THUNDERSTORMS/ ASSOCIATED WITH WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THE
LOW TO MOVE ACROSS THE WRN CWA SUN NIGHT IN MON MORNING...THEN
ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA MON MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL THEN SHIFT ACROSS THE CWA TUE INTO TUE NIGHT...WITH
INTENSIFICATION OF THE BROAD SFC LOW OCCURRING. EXACTLY WHEN/WHERE
THE BEST CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS IS UNCERTAIN DUE TO MODEL DISAGREEMENT
ON MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH. DESPITE
LACKING EXACT DETAILS...THE PRECIP FORECAST REMAINS SOMEWHAT MORE
CERTAIN. RAIN SHOWERS /AGAIN WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS/ SHOULD
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE MON EVENING THROUGH MON NIGHT...BUT THE
DRY SLOT WILL LEAD TO A DRIER FORECAST FOR TUE MORNING. WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE AND COOLER NWLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO LAKE ENHANCED RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS LATE TUE INTO THU AS 850MB TEMPS FALL AS LOW AS
-5C...ALTHOUGH A DIMINISHING TREND IN SHOWER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS TIME. MON AND TUE WILL SEE HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S
TO MID 50S...BUT WED WILL ONLY SEE HIGHS REACH THE LOW TO MID 40S.
WED NIGHT AND THU MORNING LOOK DRY FOR THE MOST PART AS A SFC RIDGE
SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA...BUT CLOUDS WILL COVER THE AREA DUE TO AMPLE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS WELL AS FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR.
POOR RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY FROM THE MODELS DOES NOT LEND MUCH
CONFIDENCE FOR THU THROUGH NEXT SAT AS THEY POINT TO A DEEPER TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...BRINGING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AOB
-10C. AS MENTIONED MODELS VARY FROM RUN TO RUN AND DISAGREE WITH
EACH OTHER ON ALL BUT THE VERY GENERAL PATTERN...AND EVEN AT THAT
THE TIMING OF WHEN AND FOR HOW LONG THE COLD AIR MOVES OVERHEAD IS
NOT AGREED ON. WILL HAVE CHANCES OF LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW THU
NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT. FOR SAT...MODELS WANT TO BRING A SFC HIGH INTO
THE AREA BUT WITH CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY. WILL KEEP POPS GOING INTO
SAT FOR LAKE EFFECT...BUT JUST SLIGHT CHANCE FOR NOW. HIGH TEMPS ON
FRI MAY NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 30S IN MANY LOCATIONS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 116 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014
UNDER A DRY AIR MASS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW
THRU THIS FCST PERIOD. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX AS SFC HIGH PRES
RIDGE APPROACHES...ARRIVING OVER THE AREA DURING THE MID AND LATE
AFTN HRS. PRES GRADIENT WILL QUICKLY TIGHTEN TONIGHT. WITH LOW-LEVEL
JET RAMPING UP OVER NOCTURNAL INVERSION...LLWS MAY NEED TO BE
CONSIDERED IN LATER FCSTS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014
AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY WEST TO EAST OVER
NORTHERN ONTARIO...SW TO W GALES OVER 35 KTS ARE EXPECTED INTO
THIS EVENING...MAINLY CENTRAL AND EAST LAKE SUPERIOR. NW WINDS OF 20
TO 30 KTS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING IN WAKE OF THE LOW AND
BEFORE SFC RIDGE CROSSES THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. AFTER A BRIEF
PERIOD WITH WINDS LESS THAN 20 KTS WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE...SE WINDS
INCREASE TO 30 KTS OVER MAINLY EAST LAKE SUPERIOR ON MONDAY AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. ONCE THIS LOW MOVES TO THE EAST
OF LAKE SUPERIOR ON TUESDAY...WEST WINDS TO 30 KTS AND POSSIBLY UP
TO GALE FORCE OF 35 KTS WILL DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT NORTHWEST AND STAY UP TO 30 KTS INTO
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 25 KTS BY
THURSDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR LSZ251-267.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR LSZ250-265-
266.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...TITUS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON MS
903 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014
.UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOWLY BUILDING TO THE E TONIGHT AND WITH THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASING AHEAD OF THE DEEP SCALE TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS...WINDS ARE STILL IN THE 7-12MPH RANGE IN THE
ARKLAMISS DELTA. 00Z KJAN AND REGIONAL SOUNDING SHOWS SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS...WHICH WILL AID IN SOME INCREASING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. HRRR INDICATES LOW
VISIBILITIES WITH FOG REACHING INTO CENTRAL/W MS AND NE LA TONIGHT.
LOW STRATUS IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO
THE STRONGER LOW LEVEL FLOW...ESPECIALLY IN THE DELTA...BUT DUE TO
ADVECTION OF HIGHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...INCREASED FOG
POTENTIAL INTO CENTRAL/W MS AFTER 09Z AND EXTENDED IT UNTIL 15Z.
LOWS ALONG AND W OF I-55 WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER DUE TO STRONGER
WINDS WHILE AREAS IN THE E/SE WILL BE COOLER IN THE UPPER 50S DUE TO
LIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT. FOR FORECAST ELEMENTS...MOVED
PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG FURTHER TO THE NW BUT KEPT OUT OF THE FAR NW
DELTA MAINLY BETWEEN 09-15Z. BUMPED UP LOWS A DEGREE IN CENTRAL/NW
MS. ADJUSTED SKY/TEMP/DEWPOINT GRIDS TO CURRENT TRENDS. REST OF THE
FORECAST IS ON TRACK. /DC/
&&
.AVIATION...GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE MORE OMINOUS WITH IFR/LIFR STRATUS/
FOG SPREADING NORTH AFTER ~08Z ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE
GREATER FOG THREAT IS EXPECTED IN THE HBG/PIB TO JAN-MEI AREA WITH A
GREATER LIKELIHOOD FOR STRATUS DECK THE GLH/GWO AREA WHERE MIXING
WILL BE GREATER. IN ANY CASE...FOG/STRATUS WILL BURN OFF BY MORNING
AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH AFTERNOON/EVENING...
EXCEPT IN THE GLH/GWO/GTR CORRIDOR WHERE AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL
INCREASE TSRA CHANCES. /EC/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS UPPER TROUGHING DEEPENS
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLANES WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS ARKANSAS
BY TUESDAY MORNING. WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT EXPECT STRATUS TO FORM OVER MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT
AND WITH SURFACE RIDGING HOLDING ON IN THE SOUTHEAST....PATCHY AREAS
OF FOG ARE LIKELY OVER THESE AREAS.
ON TUESDAY...THE BULK OF THE FORCING WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT THE COLD
FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE DELTA BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
MODELS SUGGEST ENOUGH MOISTURE WITH PWATS AROUND 1.6-1.8 INCHES AND
INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE DELTA TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE GFS/ECMWF SUGGEST THAT THE BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH PRIMARILY SHOWERS AND
SOME THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING TO FORM ALONG THE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE
NIGHT. EXPECT THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO REMAIN SUB-SEVERE...BUT A
STRONG STORM OR TWO WITH HEAVY RAINFALL CANNOT BE RULED OUT TUESDAY
EVENING IN THE DELTA.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT ANAFRONTAL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM
WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE EAST/SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE ENDING OVER THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH COOLER/DRIER CONDITIONS. EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL
INTO THE 40S FOR MOST OF THE AREA. DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST PAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SO WILL ATTACH THE APPLICABLE
PORTIONS OF THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION BELOW. /15/
PREVIOUS LONG TERM...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE OF SIGNIFICANCE WILL MOVE
ACROSS OUR CWA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING AND DEEPEN THE LONG WAVE
TROUGH TO OUR EAST. THE SHORTWAVE WILL HAVE VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO
WORK WITH. THE DRY WEATHER OVER OUR CWA THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE
FRIDAY. A SECOND STRONGER 1029MB SURFACE HIGH WILL DROP OUT OF CANADA
AND ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
FRIDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A DRY NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW OVER OUR
AREA THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST. RIDGING ALOFT WILL
MOVE EAST OVER OUR REGION SATURDAY AS WELL. THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL
SHIFT EAST OF OUR CWA SUNDAY WHILE THE SURFACE HIGH BECOMES CENTERED
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC SEABOARD. THE RESULTING RETURN FLOW BENEATH
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY INCREASE
MOISTURE TO OUR CWA. A WARMING TREND WILL ACCOMPANY THE MOISTURE
INCREASE IN MONDAY. THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN DRY BUT LOW RAIN CHANCES
CREEP BECK INTO THE FORECAST MONDAY. /22/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 59 80 61 76 / 3 13 44 30
MERIDIAN 57 82 61 76 / 3 7 37 41
VICKSBURG 58 80 58 76 / 3 22 49 21
HATTIESBURG 60 84 62 80 / 8 9 20 33
NATCHEZ 62 81 61 76 / 3 16 33 19
GREENVILLE 61 79 57 72 / 7 41 70 18
GREENWOOD 61 79 56 74 / 3 30 69 28
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
DC/EC/15/22
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS SPRINGFIELD MO
732 PM CDT Mon Oct 27 2014
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 732 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014
Cold front is making steady progress into the area from the west.
Have been seeing signs of convective development during the past
hour...mainly behind the front. 00z KSGF sounding still shows a
rather pronounced elevated mixed layer. This cap will likely
prohibit warm sector thunderstorm development tonight, with
nearly all activity along/behind the incoming boundary.
Looking at recent RUC and NAM runs, there is currently a cap even
behind the front. This cap should quickly weaken over the next
few hours and we should see an expansion of showers and scattered
storms. Elevated CAPE from around 800mb level is around 400 J/kg,
becoming uncapped along/behind the front after 03z. MUCAPE in the
500-1000 J/kg range is expected, supporting a low end risk for a
few stronger storms across the far southwest portion of the
outlook area. A rogue storm producing quarter sized hail cannot be
ruled out. Overall, however, small hail will be the main game to
be had with this activity.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014
An upper level low was currently moving into the Great Lakes
region this afternoon. Associated surface front is located from a
low over northeast Iowa across northwest Missouri...northeast
Kansas into central Oklahoma. Widely scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms have begun to develop along and behind the front as
the airmass is being lifted isentropically.
Front should approach the CWA after 00z and be all the way through
by 12z. Expect the rain area to increase in coverage through the
evening hours. Some of the stronger cells over the southwest
portion could produce some one inch hail this evening per the SPC
discussion.
Rain should diminish from northwest to southeast throughout the
day on Tuesday. Temperatures on Tuesday should be about 10-15
degrees cooler than today...but closer to seasonal normals.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014
Once the upper level low makes its way through the Great Lakes
region...an upper level ridge will reestablish itself over the
Rockies. An upper level impulse moving along the ridge will bring
some cloudiness on Thursday along with a secondary surge of
Canadian air. Temperatures will be slightly below normal Friday
and Saturday. Will need to monitor the possibility for some
patchy frost over central and south central Missouri on Saturday
morning as lows dip into the mid 30s.
As the upper level ridge approaches the area this weekend...a return
to more seasonal temperatures will occur. The next upper level
system and associated cold front will approach the area Sunday into
Monday bringing the next chance of rain to the region.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 601 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014
The main issue for pilots flying in and out of the Missouri Ozarks
region will be a front moving through later this evening and
overnight. A broken line of showers and convection will develop
late this evening along that front as it advances eastward through
the night. Have mostly VFR conditions through the next 24 hours
with a small window of possible MVFR visibilities when the line of
showers and storms move over area airports. This is handled by
TEMPO groups this evening. Gusty winds will relax this evening and
shift to north-northwesterly with the passage of the front
tonight. Skies will clear by early Tuesday morning.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE...Gagan
SHORT TERM...Gaede
LONG TERM...Gaede
AVIATION...Griffin
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1253 PM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014
UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS
MORNING. LEE SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WITH A WARM
WARM EXTENDING EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS INTO CENTRAL
MISSOURI. SOME 4500` STRATOCU HAD DEVELOPED IN NORTHWEST
MISSOURI...AND THIS MOIST AXIS WILL BE EAST OF OUR AREA. MAIN
CONCERN HAS BEEN LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTHWEST AND
WHETHER ANY STRATUS AND/OR FOG WOULD DEVELOP WITHIN AN AREA OF
STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. NO CLOUDS HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS YET...AND LATEST RAP MODEL
WOULD SUGGEST THAT NOTHING WILL DEVELOP. HRRR SUGGESTS THAT
DEVELOPMENT MAY HOLD OFF FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS...DEVELOPING IN
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND THEN EXTEND SOUTHEAST INTO WEST CENTRAL
MISSOURI. THAT STILL SEEMS LIKELY...BUT WILL BE BACKING OFF
PREVIOUS FORECAST OF EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS...FOG AND EVEN DRIZZLE
IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. BELIEVE THE FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE AREA
THROUGH THE DAY...BUT NOT SURE IT WILL MAKE ALL THE WAY THROUGH.
THUS...WILL KEEP LOWER 70S IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...BUT WILL WARM
TO THE MID 70S ALONG THE I80 CORRIDOR AND FEEL OPTIMISTIC WE CAN
STILL REACH THE LOWER 80S IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. RECORD AT KLNK
TODAY IS 86...DON`T THINK WE`LL MAKE THAT AND SHOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES SHORT. SURFACE DEWPOINTS SHOULD RISE INTO THE 50S AND EVEN
LOWER 60S IN SOUTHEAST NE/SOUTHWEST IA TODAY ALSO GIVING US A
BRIEF RETURN TO SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID CONDITIONS THAN WE`VE HAD
RECENTLY.
UPPER TROUGH PUSHING ONTO THE WEST COAST MOVES THROUGH THE ROCKIES
AND ONTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY...WHICH DRAGS THE SURFACE
TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE AREA AS A COLD
FRONT. PRECIP SHOULD STAY WEST/NORTHWEST OF THE AREA TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...WITH WEAKENING WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND DEWPOINTS
REMAINING ELEVATED...WLD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME PATCHY FOG
DEVELOP ALONG/EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER OVERNIGHT AS WELL.
COLD FRONT ARRIVES MONDAY WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASING
THROUGH THE DAY. THE REAL COOL AIR LAGS BEHIND THE FRONT UNTIL
TUESDAY. STILL LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY AS WELL...WHICH COULD LINGER ACROSS
WESTERN IOWA MONDAY EVENING.
COOLER TEMPS PREVAIL FOR TUESDAY WITH BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
WITH MID TO UPPER 50S...WHICH WOULD FINALLY BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014
THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS QUIET...WITH NORMAL OR JUST SLIGHTLY
BELOW TEMPS. THERE STILL IS A VERY WEAK WAVE THAT MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE REMAIN
JUST NORTH OF THE REGION. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN HINTING AT A SMALL
SPRINKLE CHANCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT PROBABLY NOT STRONG ENOUGH
TO MENTION YET. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY COULD BE WELL BELOW NORMAL...
BUT RECOVERY BACK TO NEAR NORMAL OR EVEN ABOVE IS POSSIBLE BY
SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECETED UNTIL 0800Z. AFTER 0800Z...A COLD
FRONT PASSING THROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CREATE MVFR CONDITIONS WITH
RAIN AT KOFK AND IFR CONDITIONS WITH FOG AND RAIN AT KLNK. WINDS
WILL SWITCH FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST AS COLDF FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 0800Z.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...SMITH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
637 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014
UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS
MORNING. LEE SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WITH A WARM
WARM EXTENDING EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS INTO CENTRAL
MISSOURI. SOME 4500` STRATOCU HAD DEVELOPED IN NORTHWEST
MISSOURI...AND THIS MOIST AXIS WILL BE EAST OF OUR AREA. MAIN
CONCERN HAS BEEN LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTHWEST AND
WHETHER ANY STRATUS AND/OR FOG WOULD DEVELOP WITHIN AN AREA OF
STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. NO CLOUDS HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS YET...AND LATEST RAP MODEL
WOULD SUGGEST THAT NOTHING WILL DEVELOP. HRRR SUGGESTS THAT
DEVELOPMENT MAY HOLD OFF FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS...DEVELOPING IN
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND THEN EXTEND SOUTHEAST INTO WEST CENTRAL
MISSOURI. THAT STILL SEEMS LIKELY...BUT WILL BE BACKING OFF
PREVIOUS FORECAST OF EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS...FOG AND EVEN DRIZZLE
IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. BELIEVE THE FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE AREA
THROUGH THE DAY...BUT NOT SURE IT WILL MAKE ALL THE WAY THROUGH.
THUS...WILL KEEP LOWER 70S IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...BUT WILL WARM
TO THE MID 70S ALONG THE I80 CORRIDOR AND FEEL OPTIMISTIC WE CAN
STILL REACH THE LOWER 80S IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. RECORD AT KLNK
TODAY IS 86...DON`T THINK WE`LL MAKE THAT AND SHOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES SHORT. SURFACE DEWPOINTS SHOULD RISE INTO THE 50S AND EVEN
LOWER 60S IN SOUTHEAST NE/SOUTHWEST IA TODAY ALSO GIVING US A
BRIEF RETURN TO SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID CONDITIONS THAN WE`VE HAD
RECENTLY.
UPPER TROUGH PUSHING ONTO THE WEST COAST MOVES THROUGH THE ROCKIES
AND ONTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY...WHICH DRAGS THE SURFACE
TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE AREA AS A COLD
FRONT. PRECIP SHOULD STAY WEST/NORTHWEST OF THE AREA TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...WITH WEAKENING WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND DEWPOINTS
REMAINING ELEVATED...WLD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME PATCHY FOG
DEVELOP ALONG/EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER OVERNIGHT AS WELL.
COLD FRONT ARRIVES MONDAY WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASING
THROUGH THE DAY. THE REAL COOL AIR LAGS BEHIND THE FRONT UNTIL
TUESDAY. STILL LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY AS WELL...WHICH COULD LINGER ACROSS
WESTERN IOWA MONDAY EVENING.
COOLER TEMPS PREVAIL FOR TUESDAY WITH BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
WITH MID TO UPPER 50S...WHICH WOULD FINALLY BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014
THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS QUIET...WITH NORMAL OR JUST SLIGHTLY
BELOW TEMPS. THERE STILL IS A VERY WEAK WAVE THAT MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE REMAIN
JUST NORTH OF THE REGION. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN HINTING AT A SMALL
SPRINKLE CHANCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT PROBABLY NOT STRONG ENOUGH
TO MENTION YET. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY COULD BE WELL BELOW NORMAL...
BUT RECOVERY BACK TO NEAR NORMAL OR EVEN ABOVE IS POSSIBLE BY
SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME LOW-LEVEL
WIND SHEAR IS STILL LIKELY THROUGH A COUPLE MORE HOURS AT
KOMA/KLNK BEFORE THE LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA TONIGHT SWITCHING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST ALONG WITH
AN INCREASE IN SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
347 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE CHANCE OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS THROUGH ABOUT
NOON TODAY.
STARTING WITH THE BIG PICTURE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR
PLOTS SHOW ONE CLOSED LOW OVER QUEBEC AND THE NORTHEAST CONUS...WITH
RIDING OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY AND THEN ANOTHER TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. DECENT HEIGHT FALLS WITH THE
UPSTREAM TROUGH WITH A 500 MB 12 HOUR CHANGE OF 40 METERS OVER THE
EASTERN ROCKIES AND 80 TO 100 METERS ACROSS IDAHO. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE AT 1 AM LOCAL TIME...HIGH PRESSURE WAS SLIDING SOUTHEAST AND
WAS OVER SOUTHERN MN/NORTHERN IOWA. LOW PRESSURE WAS SITUATED OVER
SOUTHEAST COLORADO WITH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS. HIGHER DEWPOINTS WERE POOLING ALONG AND EAST OF THE
BOUNDARY WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S OVER EASTERN
KANSAS. CLOSER TO HOME DEWPOINTS RANGED FROM THE UPPER 30S IN THE
NORTHERN PART OF OUR CWA TO THE MID 50S IN OUR SOUTHERN CWA.
THE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM WITH A
PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN. WE SHOULD REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE UPPER RIDGE TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH ADVANCING
EAST AND IT IS EXPECTED TO STRETCH FROM EASTERN MONTANA TO WESTERN
COLORADO BY SUNRISE MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP OUR AREA DRY OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE BIGGER CONCERN THEN IS WILL WE SEE ANY FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT
JUST PRIOR TO SUNRISE AND WILL IT PERSIST FOR PART OF THE DAY? AS OF
1 AM LOCAL TIME...THE WINDS ACROSS THE CWA REMAIN EASTERLY AND A BIT
STRONGER THAN ONE WOULD WANT TO SEE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. THE MODELS
HAVE BEEN INDICATING THE WINDS SHOULD TURN MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AS THE
COLORADO SURFACE LOW ADVANCES CLOSER TO OUR CWA. THIS WOULD HELP
ADVECT THE HIGHER SURFACE MOISTURE FROM KANSAS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. THE QUESTION THEN IS IF THIS OCCURS EARLY ENOUGH BEFORE
SUNRISE TO AID IN LOW CLOUD AND FOG DEVELOPMENT...OR IS IT AFTER THE
SUN HAS RISEN ENOUGH THAT WE HEAT UP IN THE LOWER LEVELS THUS
LIMITING FOG/LOW CLOUDS. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR BOTH
MODEL TRENDS AND REALITY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE DECIDING. IN
ADDITION TO CAUSING EARLY MORNING VISIBILITY ISSUES...AND LINGERING
CLOUDS/FOG WOULD ALSO AFFECT THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR TODAY.
AFTER WATCHING THINGS PLAY OUT OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...DECIDED TO
BACK OFF ON FOG WORDING. WILL LEAVE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG IN FOR
NOW BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE LOWER VISIBILITIES.
DO NOT EXPECT ANY MAJOR FOG ISSUES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT SINCE THE WINDS
SHOULD SWITCH TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW PASSES
THROUGH...THUS SHUNTING THE HIGHER MOISTURE EAST.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014
MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...SHOWING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION AS A
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTH FROM LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE MT/CAN BORDER
SLIDES EAST...AND BROAD HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER THE ERN CONUS. AT
THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT BEING PUSHED SOUTH BY THIS DISTURBANCE IS
EXPECTED TO HAVE MADE ITS WAY THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA BY
SUNRISE MONDAY. DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON MONDAY...THIS UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST THOUGH THE
PLAINS...BUT OUTSIDE OF A SMALL CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS...MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW NOT A WHOLE HECK OF A LOT GOING ON ACROSS THE CWA.
KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING ACROSS PRIMARILY THE NWRN HALF OF
THE CWA...BUT SOME MODELS SUGGEST WE WOULD BE LUCKY TO SEE
SPRINKLES. WILL SEE HOW UPCOMING RUNS TREND.
ONCE THIS SYSTEM PASSES EAST OF THE CWA...THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD THROUGH SATURDAY CONTINUES TO BE A DRY ONE. MORE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BUILDS INTO THE AREA TUE/WED AS THE TROUGH AXIS
KEEPS MOVING EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST
REGIONS...AMPLIFYING AS WE GET INTO THE LATER PORTIONS OF THE
PERIOD...WITH RIDGING BUILDING NORTH THROUGH THE ROCKIES AHEAD OF
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WORKING ITS WAY TOWARD THE WEST COAST.
MODELS IN SHOWING NO NOTABLE SYSTEMS BRINGING PRECIP TO THE
CWA...BUT DO SHOW DISTURBANCES SLIDING TO THE N/NE OF THE
CWA...BRINGING REINFORCING SHOTS OF COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA.
LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES...COLD AIR ADVECTION ON MONDAY IS FORECAST
TO RESULT IN HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S IN THE NW TO NEAR 70
IN THE SE...AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY NW WINDS THANKS TO A
TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT AND INCREASED MIXING POTENTIAL. SPEEDS
OF 2O TO 25 MPH AND GUSTS OVER 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. THAT COOLER
AIRMASS STICKS AROUND AS WE GET INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK AS
SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN OVER THE AREA. TUES IS A TOUCH COOLER
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S...WITH WED/THURS IN THE 60S.
FOR FRI/SAT...ANOTHER COOL FRONT PASSING THROUGH LOOKS TO DROP TEMPS
BACK A BIT AGAIN...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD 50S CURRENTLY IN THE
FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE THE CHANCE OF FOG/STRATUS
FORMATION BETWEEN THE 09 AND 15Z TIME FRAME. A WEAK SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER EASTERN COLORADO IS SLATED TO MOVE SLOWLY
EAST WHICH WOULD SWITCH THE WINDS FROM EASTERLY TO SSE. THIS IN
TURN WOULD BRING FETCH OF HIGHER LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS INTO THE
TERMINAL AREAS. THE MAIN QUESTION IS WHETHER THIS WILL OCCUR
BEFORE THE SUN RISES AND HEATING TAKES PLACE. APPEARS IT WILL BE A
CLOSE CALL. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE SREF AND HRRR MODELS HAVE
BACKED OFF ON THE EXTENT OF THE FOG/STRATUS AND MOS GUIDANCE NOT
SHOWING ANY VSBY/CIG ISSUES AT ALL. WILL DO THE SAME WITH THE
FORECAST IN TERMS OF BACKING OFF THE TREND FOR LIFR CONDITIONS BUT
WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR GOING. CONFIDENCE NOT REAL HIGH AND
WILL CLOSELY MONITOR THE REST OF THE SHIFT.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...EWALD
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...EWALD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
309 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014
UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS
MORNING. LEE SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WITH A WARM
WARM EXTENDING EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS INTO CENTRAL
MISSOURI. SOME 4500` STRATOCU HAD DEVELOPED IN NORTHWEST
MISSOURI...AND THIS MOIST AXIS WILL BE EAST OF OUR AREA. MAIN
CONCERN HAS BEEN LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTHWEST AND
WHETHER ANY STRATUS AND/OR FOG WOULD DEVELOP WITHIN AN AREA OF
STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. NO CLOUDS HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS YET...AND LATEST RAP MODEL
WOULD SUGGEST THAT NOTHING WILL DEVELOP. HRRR SUGGESTS THAT
DEVELOPMENT MAY HOLD OFF FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS...DEVELOPING IN
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND THEN EXTEND SOUTHEAST INTO WEST CENTRAL
MISSOURI. THAT STILL SEEMS LIKELY...BUT WILL BE BACKING OFF
PREVIOUS FORECAST OF EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS...FOG AND EVEN DRIZZLE
IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. BELIEVE THE FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE AREA
THROUGH THE DAY...BUT NOT SURE IT WILL MAKE ALL THE WAY THROUGH.
THUS...WILL KEEP LOWER 70S IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...BUT WILL WARM
TO THE MID 70S ALONG THE I80 CORRIDOR AND FEEL OPTIMISTIC WE CAN
STILL REACH THE LOWER 80S IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. RECORD AT KLNK
TODAY IS 86...DON`T THINK WE`LL MAKE THAT AND SHOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES SHORT. SURFACE DEWPOINTS SHOULD RISE INTO THE 50S AND EVEN
LOWER 60S IN SOUTHEAST NE/SOUTHWEST IA TODAY ALSO GIVING US A
BRIEF RETURN TO SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID CONDITIONS THAN WE`VE HAD
RECENTLY.
UPPER TROUGH PUSHING ONTO THE WEST COAST MOVES THROUGH THE ROCKIES
AND ONTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY...WHICH DRAGS THE SURFACE
TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE AREA AS A COLD
FRONT. PRECIP SHOULD STAY WEST/NORTHWEST OF THE AREA TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...WITH WEAKENING WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND DEWPOINTS
REMAINING ELEVATED...WOWITH HIGHS IN THE ULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP ALONG/EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER
OVERNIGHT AS WELL.
COLD FRONT ARRIVES MONDAY WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASING
THROUGH THE DAY. THE REAL COOL AIR LAGS BEHIND THE FRONT UNTIL
TUESDAY. STILL LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY AS WELL...WHICH COULD LINGER ACROSS
WESTERN IOWA MONDAY EVENING.
COOLER TEMPS PREVAIL FOR TUESDAY WITH BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
WITH MID TO UPPER 50S...WHICH WOULD FINALLY BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014
THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS QUIET...WITH NORMAL OR JUST SLIGHTLY
BELOW TEMPS. THERE STILL IS A VERY WEAK WAVE THAT MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE REMAIN
JUST NORTH OF THE REGION. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN HINTING AT A SMALL
SPRINKLE CHANCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT PROBABLY NOT STRONG ENOUGH
TO MENTION YET. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY COULD BE WELL BELOW NORMAL...
BUT RECOVERY BACK TO NEAR NORMAL OR EVEN ABOVE IS POSSIBLE BY
SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014
STILL EXPECT CLOUDS TO BE ON THE INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AND INTO
MID MORNING SUNDAY. CEILINGS MAY DROP INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AND
THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME FOG. MOST LIKELY AREA FOR FOG WITH VSBY
UNDER 3 MILES IS KLNK...WHICH MAY SEE AN IFR CEILING BRIEFLY TOO.
AS WINDS ALOFT INCREASE AT AROUND 1000 FEET...SOME LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND LAST INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...MILLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1225 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 454 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014
UPDATED THE FOG FORECAST TO INCLUDE THE POSSIBILITY OF VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS DOWN TO AROUND ONE HALF MILE DUE TO FAVORABLE FOG
FORMATION CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT. THE WIND WILL SHIFT FROM
EASTERLY TO SOUTHEAST AND MOISTURE POOLING ACROSS KANSAS WILL LIFT
NORTH INTO OUR NEBRASKA ZONES. NUMEROUS FORECAST MODELS ARE
INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG...THE SREF IN PARTICULAR WITH
THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF MORE WIDESPREAD FOG OVER NEBRASKA ZONES.
NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH YET FOR A FOG ADVISORY AT THIS POINT IN
TIME...BUT CAN NOT RULE THAT OUT LATER TONIGHT DEPENDING ON HOW
THINGS BEGIN TO UNFOLD.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014
SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS HAVE CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA
THANKS TO AN UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.
AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES TO THE EAST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE SOUTH.
DEW POINT TEMPERATURES IN KANSAS ARE IN THE 50S AND THE MOIST AIR
WILL BE ADVECTING INTO THE AREA. WITH THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR
SKIES EXPECT THERE COULD BE SOME FOG FORMING. THE NAM AND GFS BOTH
HAVE AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE SREF HAS HIGH
PROBABILITIES OF VISIBILITY LESS THAN A MILE. THE LATEST COUPLE OF
RUNS HAVE HAD SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT AREAS...BUT ARE ALL IN THE SAME
VICINITY OF MAINLY IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. HAVE KEPT AREAS OF FOG
IN FOR LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR HOW
LOW THE VISIBILITY WILL GET TONIGHT.
THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO THE MORNING. THE FOG WILL
DIMINISH BY MID MORNING AND THE CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014
BIG STORY IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE THE RETURN OF MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. THERE WILL ALSO BE A LOW END CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
WE BEGIN THE PERIOD UNDER A SOMEWHAT ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. THERE
IS A WAVE OFF TO THE NORTHWEST...WHICH WILL BEGIN EJECT OVER INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS COME MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A COLD FRONT
COMING THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...IT WILL BE A RATHER BREEZY...WITH SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
AROUND 25 TO 30 MPH FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST. ALTHOUGH
DYNAMICALLY A DECENT SETUP WITH THE SHORTWAVE PASSAGE...THE
ATMOSPHERE IS RATHER DRY DURING THIS TIME AND LACKS INSTABILITY...SO
CONFIDENCE TO SEE ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT
IS RATHER LOW. A COUPLE MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME QPF AROUND THE
LOCAL AREA...BUT THE LACK OF MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE IS REALLY
THE KEY...AND AT THIS CURRENT TIME WOULD BE SURPRISED TO SEE MORE
THAN A LIGHT SHOWER TO PERHAPS ONLY SPRINKLES. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED.
AS MENTIONED EARLIER...WE WILL HAVE MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN
THE FORECAST FOR THE LONG TERM. THIS WEEKEND MAY BE THE LAST TIME WE
HAVE TEMPERATURES NEAR 80 DEGREES UNTIL NEXT YEAR...SO EVERYONE
SHOULD GET OUT AND ENJOY THE NICE WEATHER. WE ARE LOOKING AT TEMPS
MOSTLY IN THE 50S/60S THROUGH SATURDAY FOR HIGHS. SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF
THE TRI-CITES COULD SEE TEMPERATURES REACH THE LOWER 70S FOR HIGHS
MONDAY BEFORE THE COLD FRONT PASSES. OTHERWISE...EXPECTED
TEMPERATURES TO BE CLOSER TO NORMAL...WHICH IS BASICALLY THE UPPER
50S AND LOWER 60S FOR HIGHS...WHILE LOWS GENERALLY RANGE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 30S THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE THE CHANCE OF FOG/STRATUS
FORMATION BETWEEN THE 09 AND 15Z TIME FRAME. A WEAK SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER EASTERN COLORADO IS SLATED TO MOVE SLOWLY
EAST WHICH WOULD SWITCH THE WINDS FROM EASTERLY TO SSE. THIS IN
TURN WOULD BRING FETCH OF HIGHER LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS INTO THE
TERMINAL AREAS. THE MAIN QUESTION IS WHETHER THIS WILL OCCUR
BEFORE THE SUN RISES AND HEATING TAKES PLACE. APPEARS IT WILL BE A
CLOSE CALL. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE SREF AND HRRR MODELS HAVE
BACKED OFF ON THE EXTENT OF THE FOG/STRATUS AND MOS GUIDANCE NOT
SHOWING ANY VSBY/CIG ISSUES AT ALL. WILL DO THE SAME WITH THE
FORECAST IN TERMS OF BACKING OFF THE TREND FOR LIFR CONDITIONS BUT
WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR GOING. CONFIDENCE NOT REAL HIGH AND
WILL CLOSELY MONITOR THE REST OF THE SHIFT.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WESELY
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...GUERRERO
AVIATION...EWALD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1145 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014
SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE THE RETURN OF DEEPER MOISTURE
TONIGHT AND LOW CLOUDS/FOG DEVELOPMENT.
SEASONABLY STRONG 130-150KT UPPER LEVEL JETS WERE LOCATED OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. THESE FEATURES WERE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE H5 TROF OFF THE WEST COAST AND ATTENDANT 130M+
HEIGHT FALLS. IN ADDITION...THERE WAS A NEGATIVELY TILTED H5 TROF
NORTH OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. A BROAD H5 RIDGE WAS SITUATED OVER
THE ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. AT H85...THE THERMAL
RIDGE WAS OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE DEEP MOISTURE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILED ACROSS THE REGION WITH SUNSHINE AND MUCH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S/80S. RECORDS FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR ARE IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90...SO WELL BELOW THOSE
LEVELS.
WE HAD SOME DENSE FOG THAT DEVELOPED FROM ILLINOIS INTO
MISSOURI...AND SPREAD INTO SOUTHERN IOWA AND SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA...WHERE THE SURFACE DEWPOINTS WERE HIGH AHEAD OF THE
DRIER AIR.
AT 20Z...SURFACE DEWPOINTS VARIED FROM THE LOWER 30S IN THE NORTH
NEAR THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER TO THE MID 50S JUST SOUTH OF
BEATRICE. TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
INFLUENCE THE AREA WITH DRY AIR. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST
TO INCREASE AND H85 WINDS SHOULD BE AROUND 25 TO 35KTS. THE HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS DO NOT GO OUT FAR ENOUGH ON SUNDAY. THE
NAM/SREF ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAN THE
GFS. THE RAP IS SIMILIAR TO THE NAM AND IS STRONGER WITH THE
FORCING.
AS THE SURFACE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH...THERE WILL BE
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DEEPER MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS THAT WILL
FAVOR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. DO MENTION AREAS OF FOG IN THE
SOUTHWEST AND PATCHY FOG INTO THE CENTRAL ZONES/ THERE MAY BE SOME
SPRINKLES OR DRIZZLE AND DEPENDING ON HOW LONG THE LOW CLOUDS HANG
ON...WOULD AFFECT TEMPERATURES. THE MIXING FROM OMAHA NORTH AND
NORTHEAST IS MORE QUESTIONABLE...THUS HAVE HIGHS 70 TO 75 WITH
WARMER 75 TO 80 DEGREE TEMPS IN THE SOUTH FOR SUNDAY.
A COOL FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND THERE MAY BE SOME POST
FRONTAL SHOWERS MONDAY. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 60S AND 70S. BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014
THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS GENERALLY DRY. A WEAK FRONT PASSES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES FOR THE REST
OF THE EXTENDED. THE EC DOES BRING THE RIDGING EAST...HOWEVER THE
GFS IS SLOWER WITH THIS...THUS THE COOLER HIGHS IN THE 50S FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY COMPARED TO THE 60S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014
STILL EXPECT CLOUDS TO BE ON THE INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AND INTO
MID MORNING SUNDAY. CEILINGS MAY DROP INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AND
THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME FOG. MOST LIKELY AREA FOR FOG WITH VSBY
UNDER 3 MILES IS KLNK...WHICH MAY SEE AN IFR CEILING BRIEFLY TOO.
AS WINDS ALOFT INCREASE AT AROUND 1000 FEET...SOME LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND LAST INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
AVIATION...MILLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
308 PM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
UNSEASONABLY WARM DAYTIME TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND AS
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 110 PM SUNDAY...STILL CRYSTAL CAROLINA BLUE SKIES THIS
AFTERNOON AND A NONDESCRIPT COLD FRONT NORTH OF THE REGION WILL
PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WILL ONLY A WEAK WIND SHIFT NOTED.
WITH THE THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THE HRRR 12 UTC IS SHOWING A
SEA-BREEZE DEVELOPING BUT REMAINING TRAPPED NEAR THE COAST MAINLY
FROM CAROLINA BEACH SOUTHWARD.
OVERNIGHT...WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVERHEAD...NO CLOUD
COVER...AND LIGHT WINDS THE REGION WILL HAVE AN EXCELLENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT. MINIMUM 2-METER TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH THE MIDDLE 40S TO NEAR 50 OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST MONDAY WITH SURFACE WINDS VEERING FROM NORTHEAST
TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON...THEN COMING AROUND TO THE
SOUTH ON TUESDAY. SEVERAL DAYS OF PERFECTLY CLEAR SKIES MAY
EVENTUALLY COME TO AN END WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS SOME THIN CIRRUS
SPREADS IN AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH. THE BIGGER STORY WILL
BE MUCH-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEK. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO AS HIGH AS +16C...ABOVE THE
90TH PERCENTILE FOR LATE OCTOBER AND LIKELY TO PUSH DAYTIME HIGHS
INTO THE LOWER 80S INLAND FROM THE COAST BOTH DAYS. NEAR THE
BEACHES A COOLER ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE RELATIVELY COOL OCEAN
WATERS SHOULD HOLD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S.
VERY DRY AIR UNDER THE HEART OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE MONDAY WILL
GET ENTRAINED INTO THE DAYTIME MIXED LAYER WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS
CRASHING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S...LOWEST ACROSS SE NORTH
CAROLINA. THIS WILL CREATE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE 20-30
PERCENT RANGE. FORTUNATELY LIGHT WINDS UNDER THE HIGH WILL
PRECLUDE THE FIRE WEATHER RISK FROM BECOMING TOO EXTREME.
MOISTURE RETURNING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE DEPARTING
HIGH WILL PUSH DEWPOINTS INTO THE 50S AND EVENTUALLY NEAR 60
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...THE LONG TERM IS SHAPING UP TO OFFER TWO OR
THREE DIFFERENT AIRMASSES. WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE ONE LAST DAY OF
UNSEASONABLE WARMTH AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT AND BERMUDA HIGH
PRESSURE THAT WILL BE LOSING GROUND. CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING FROM
WEST TO EAST ON WEDNESDAY WHICH MAY TEMPER THE WARMTH OVER WESTERN
ZONES BUT MOST PLACES SHOULD STILL EXCEED 80 DEGREES. RAIN CHANCES
THEN FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR THE FRONT, NOW FORECAST TO
ARRIVE EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY. THE SECOND AIRMASS DESCRIBED IN THE
FIST LINE WILL THEN BE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION AS THE FRONT SITS
JUST OFF THE COAST AND WAITS TO GET KICKED BY THE MAIN ENERGY MOVING
INTO THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO
CLIMO THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. ITS TOUGH TO SAY WHETHER OR NOT SOME
SMALL POPS ARE WARRANTED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST DURING THIS PART
OF THE SETUP. BY SATURDAY THIS ENERGY ALOFT CAPTURES THE RAPIDLY
DEEPENING LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND. THE ENTIRE SYSTEM CUTS OFF AND THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION SCREAMS INTO THE CAROLINAS. IT`S STILL TOO EARLY
TO SAY JUST HOW SUPERLATIVE THIS COLD AIR ADVECTION BECOMES. THE
GFS PUSHES 850MB TEMPS DOWN TO 1.5-4C (NORTH TO SOUTH) ACROSS THE
REGION. THE ECMWF IS NOW WEAKER THAN ITS PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS BUT
STILL PUSHES THE UNWELCOME 850MB 0C LINE SOUTH OF THE NC/SC STATE
BORDER. OUR CURRENT CHILLY SUNDAY FORECAST OF HIGHS JUST 60-65
APPEAR ON TRACK AT THIS TIME. WILL LOWER SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS HOWEVER
TO SHOW MID TO UPPER 30S AREA-WIDE.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...VFR/CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THIS TAF
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE/DRYER AIR BUILDS INTO THE TERMINALS. WINDS
WILL BE W-NW AROUND 10 KT AT ALL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. COULD BE
ISOLATED GUSTS TO 20KT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS...BUT THE GENERAL TREND WILL BE FOR OVERALL WIND SPEEDS TO
DECREASE AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME
LGT/VRBL BY THIS EVENING...THEN PERSISTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXCEPT FOR A CHANCE OF COASTAL MVFR/INLAND IFR
CONDITIONS IN EARLY MORNING FOG TUES/WED/THURS MORNINGS...VFR WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS WED EVENING THROUGH
THURS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT BECOMES STALLED JUST OFF THE COAST.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 110 PM SUNDAY...THE WINDS HAVE BACKED TO THE WEST AHEAD OF A
VERY WEAK COLD FRONT. CURRENTLY THE BUOYS ARE SHOWING WEST WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS...AND THE ONLY IMPACT OF THE FRONT WILL BE TO
VEER THE WINDS TO THE NORTH OVERNIGHT. THE WINDS SPEEDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE 10 KNOTS WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. SEAS ARE RUNNING
BETWEEN 1 AND 2.5 FEET THIS AFTERNOON AND THEY ARE EXPECTED TO
SETTLE OUT TO 0.5 TO 2.0 FEET OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS MONDAY MORNING...THEN OFFSHORE MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
LEAD TO VEERING WIND DIRECTIONS AND LIGHT WIND SPEEDS MONDAY...
WITH SOUTH WINDS INCREASING TO 10-12 KT BY TUESDAY EVENING. THE
LIGHT WIND SPEEDS AND LACK OF ANY CONSIDERABLE SWELL MEANS
COMBINED SEAS WILL AVERAGE ONLY 1-2 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...WEDNESDAY TO BRING THE LAST DAY OF QUIET WEATHER
WITH HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE AND A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS BOUNDARY WILL PUSH INTO AND THROUGH THE
WATERS THURSDAY MORNING WITH AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT BUT A LESS
DRAMATIC INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS OFTEN ACCOMPANIED BY SUCH
BOUNDARIES. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD
AND A COLD SURGE OF HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS IS STILL GOING TO BE
FORTHCOMING...BUT IT MAY END UP WAITING TIL THE END OF THE PERIOD OR
JUST BEYOND.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TRA
NEAR TERM...DRH
SHORT TERM...TRA
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
111 PM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT OR WIND SHIFT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD TONIGHT. THE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 110 PM SUNDAY...STILL CRYSTAL CAROLINA BLUE SKIES THIS
AFTERNOON AND A NONDESCRIPT COLD FRONT NORTH OF THE REGION WILL
PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WILL ONLY A WEAK WIND SHIFT NOTED.
WITH THE THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THE HRRR 12 UTC IS SHOWING A
SEA-BREEZE DEVELOPING BUT REMAINING TRAPPED NEAR THE COAST MAINLY
FROM CAROLINA BEACH SOUTHWARD.
OVERNIGHT...WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVERHEAD...NO CLOUD
COVER...AND LIGHT WINDS THE REGION WILL HAVE AN EXCELLENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT. MINIMUM 2-METER TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH THE MIDDLE 40S TO NEAR 50 OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...GORGEOUS WEATHER TO CONTINUE THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK...WITH CONDITIONS MORE APPROPRIATE FOR LATE SUMMER THAN
MID-FALL ANTICIPATED. SURFACE HIGH OVERHEAD MONDAY MORNING WILL MOVE
TO A POSITION EAST OF BERMUDA ON TUESDAY...CREATING A SUMMER-LIKE
BERMUDA RIDGE TYPE SETUP. THIS SURFACE HIGH IS DRIVEN BY A
STRENGTHENING RIDGE ALOFT...WHICH WILL ALSO MOVE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH
THE PERIOD...BUT MAINTAIN ANOMALOUSLY WARM THICKNESSES LOCALLY. THE
RAISED HEIGHTS COMBINED WITH WARM RETURN FLOW WILL DRIVE TEMPS TO
WELL ABOVE NORMAL BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WIDESPREAD 80 DEGREE
READINGS ARE EXPECTED AWAY FROM THE COAST ON MONDAY...WITH EVEN
WARMER MAX TEMPS FORECAST FOR TUESDAY WHEN RECORD HIGHS MAY BE
APPROACHED (86 AT FLORENCE). TEMPS NEAR THE COAST WILL BE MUCH
COOLER THANKS TO WHAT WILL LIKELY BECOME A STRONG SEA BREEZE AS
LAND/OCEAN TEMP DIFFERENCES EXCEED 10 DEGREES. MINS WILL ALSO BE
QUITE WARM BOTH NIGHTS...LOW/MID 50S MONDAY NIGHT...AND EVEN A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN THAT TUESDAY NIGHT. NO PRECIP THROUGH THE
PERIOD...AND EVEN CLOUD COVER WILL BE MINIMAL AT WORST.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...ENJOY THE WARMTH ON WEDNESDAY...BECAUSE THE
SUMMER LIKE WEATHER WILL COME TO AN ABRUPT HALT THURSDAY.
UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE AWAY ON WEDNESDAY...TO BE REPLACED BY A
LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. TWO
DISTINCT SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE BASE OF THIS
TROUGH...THE FIRST ON THURSDAY...THE SECOND LATE FRIDAY. THE FIRST
ONE THURSDAY...WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH IS
NOW PROGGED TO BE A BIT FASTER THANKS TO A LESS AMPLIFIED /FASTER/
MID-LEVEL FLOW. FRONT WILL CROSS THURSDAY MORNING...AND WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. OVERALL QPF STILL APPEARS TO
BE RATHER LIMITED THANKS TO...AS THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER
NOTED...ONLY A "THIN RIBBON" OF MOISTURE AND WEAK THETA-E RIDGING.
STILL...CHC POP FOR THURSDAY WILL REMAIN.
THIS FRONT WILL STALL JUST OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS
THE SECOND SHORTWAVE DIVES INTO THE TROUGH. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
INTO WHETHER ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL PERSIST FRIDAY TO KEEP SHOWERS
LOCALLY...BUT THE FRONT IN THE VICINITY COMBINED WITH SOME FORCING
AS THE SECOND SHORTWAVE MOVES OVERHEAD...WILL AT LEAST PROVIDE A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTN...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COAST. THERE SHOULD BE RAPID DRYING BEHIND THIS SECOND IMPULSE AS IT
DRIVES THE FRONT WELL FROM THE COAST...AND HALLOWEEN FESTIVITIES
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY...BUT COOL.
THEREAFTER A BIG COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED AS STRONG NEGATIVE ANOMALIES
DEVELOP ALOFT DRIVING INTENSE COLD ADVECTION ACROSS THE EAST. THE
FACT THAT IT WILL BE SO WARM EARLIER IN THE WEEK WILL MAKE IT FEEL
EVEN COLDER. EXTENDED MOS IS ALREADY 5-10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO
NORMS...A SURE SIGNAL OF THE VERY COLD AIR ANTICIPATED. THE 25/12Z
ECMWF SURE IS INTERESTING...BUT IS DISREGARDED ATTM FOR ITS
EXTREME (AND NEW) BEHAVIOR. THUS THE UPCOMING WEEKEND LOOKS COLD
AND DRY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...VFR/CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THIS TAF
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE/DRYER AIR BUILDS INTO THE TERMINALS. WINDS
WILL BE W-NW AROUND 10 KT AT ALL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. COULD BE
ISOLATED GUSTS TO 20KT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS...BUT THE GENERAL TREND WILL BE FOR OVERALL WIND SPEEDS TO
DECREASE AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME
LGT/VRBL BY THIS EVENING...THEN PERSISTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXCEPT FOR A CHANCE OF COASTAL MVFR/INLAND IFR
CONDITIONS IN EARLY MORNING FOG TUES/WED/THURS MORNINGS...VFR WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS WED EVENING THROUGH
THURS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT BECOMES STALLED JUST OFF THE COAST.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 110 PM SUNDAY...THE WINDS HAVE BACKED TO THE WEST AHEAD OF A
VERY WEAK COLD FRONT. CURRENTLY THE BUOYS ARE SHOWING WEST WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS...AND THE ONLY IMPACT OF THE FRONT WILL BE TO
VEER THE WINDS TO THE NORTH OVERNIGHT. THE WINDS SPEEDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE 10 KNOTS WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. SEAS ARE RUNNING
BETWEEN 1 AND 2.5 FEET THIS AFTERNOON AND THEY ARE EXPECTED TO
SETTLE OUT TO 0.5 TO 2.0 FEET OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM
SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE NEARLY OVERHEAD DURING
MONDAY...BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY...AND THEN MOVING WELL
EAST OF THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS CREATES A VERY WEAK GRADIENT
MONDAY WITH VARIABLE WINDS...ALTHOUGH A PRONOUNCED SEA BREEZE IS
EXPECTED WITH SE WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WITHIN THE NEAR-SHORE WATERS.
ELSEWHERE...WINDS WILL BE AROUND 5 KTS...VEERING FROM NE TO SOUTH
THROUGH THE DAY. AS RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS TUESDAY...WINDS WILL RISE
TO 10 KTS ACROSS ALL THE WATERS...WITH A SW DIRECTION PREDOMINANT.
THESE LIGHT WINDS WILL KEEP WAVE HEIGHTS LOW...1-2 FT
MONDAY...BECOMING 2-3 FT ONLY VERY LATE TUESDAY.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...COLD FRONT CROSSING THE WATERS EARLY THURSDAY
CREATES TWO DISTINCT REGIMES IN THE EXTENDED. IN THE PRE-FRONTAL
AIRMASS ON WEDNESDAY...SW WINDS WILL BE 10-15 KTS...CREATING 2-3 FT
SEAS. FRONT WILL CROSS FROM NW TO SE EARLY THURSDAY...WITH A
DECREASE IN SPEED AND A QUICK SHIFT TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION. THESE
NORTH WINDS OF AROUND 10 KTS WILL PERSIST THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. ALTHOUGH WAVE HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE AROUND 2 FT ON
THURSDAY...A CONFUSED SPECTRUM JUST BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS
EXPECTED AS NORTHERLY WINDS ENVELOP THE WATERS.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HAWKINS
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...MRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
950 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MIGRATE OVERHEAD THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AND
WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFFSHORE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...APPROACHING RECORD HIGHS TUESDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND STALL JUST OFF THE
COAST THURSDAY. AFTER A PROLONGED DRY SPELL...THERE IS A CHANCE
FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL MID WEEK...POSSIBLY LINGERING AT THE COAST
INTO FRIDAY. MUCH COLDER AIR IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE AREA NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 950 AM SUNDAY...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING CLEAR
SKIES...AND THE 12 UTC UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING VERY DRY
AIR ABOVE THE SURFACE THE MORNING.
WITH THE THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THE HRRR 12 UTC IS SHOWING A
SEA-BREEZE DEVELOPING BUT REMAINING NEAR/TRAPPED NEAR THE COAST MAINLY
FROM CAROLINA BEACH SOUTHWARD.
THE DRY AIR TODAY AND THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVING TOWARD THE
AREA WILL ALLOW THE 2-METER TEMPERATURES TO WARM QUICKLY INTO THE
UPPER 70S OVER SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND THE LOWER 80S OVER
NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA. WITH THE SEA-BREEZE TRAPPED NEAR THE
COAST TEMPERATURES AT THE IMMEDIATE BEACHES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM
ONLY IN THE MIDDLE 70S.
OVERNIGHT...WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVERHEAD...NO CLOUD
COVE...AND LIGHT WINDS AN EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT IS
IN ORDER. MINIMUM 2-METER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S RIGHT AROUND SUNRISE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...GORGEOUS WEATHER TO CONTINUE THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK...WITH CONDITIONS MORE APPROPRIATE FOR LATE SUMMER THAN
MID-FALL ANTICIPATED. SURFACE HIGH OVERHEAD MONDAY MORNING WILL MOVE
TO A POSITION EAST OF BERMUDA ON TUESDAY...CREATING A SUMMER-LIKE
BERMUDA RIDGE TYPE SETUP. THIS SURFACE HIGH IS DRIVEN BY A
STRENGTHENING RIDGE ALOFT...WHICH WILL ALSO MOVE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH
THE PERIOD...BUT MAINTAIN ANOMALOUSLY WARM THICKNESSES LOCALLY. THE
RAISED HEIGHTS COMBINED WITH WARM RETURN FLOW WILL DRIVE TEMPS TO
WELL ABOVE NORMAL BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WIDESPREAD 80 DEGREE
READINGS ARE EXPECTED AWAY FROM THE COAST ON MONDAY...WITH EVEN
WARMER MAX TEMPS FORECAST FOR TUESDAY WHEN RECORD HIGHS MAY BE
APPROACHED (86 AT FLORENCE). TEMPS NEAR THE COAST WILL BE MUCH
COOLER THANKS TO WHAT WILL LIKELY BECOME A STRONG SEA BREEZE AS
LAND/OCEAN TEMP DIFFERENCES EXCEED 10 DEGREES. MINS WILL ALSO BE
QUITE WARM BOTH NIGHTS...LOW/MID 50S MONDAY NIGHT...AND EVEN A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN THAT TUESDAY NIGHT. NO PRECIP THROUGH THE
PERIOD...AND EVEN CLOUD COVER WILL BE MINIMAL AT WORST.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...ENJOY THE WARMTH ON WEDNESDAY...BECAUSE THE
SUMMER LIKE WEATHER WILL COME TO AN ABRUPT HALT THURSDAY.
UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE AWAY ON WEDNESDAY...TO BE REPLACED BY A
LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. TWO
DISTINCT SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE BASE OF THIS
TROUGH...THE FIRST ON THURSDAY...THE SECOND LATE FRIDAY. THE FIRST
ONE THURSDAY...WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH IS
NOW PROGGED TO BE A BIT FASTER THANKS TO A LESS AMPLIFIED /FASTER/
MID-LEVEL FLOW. FRONT WILL CROSS THURSDAY MORNING...AND WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. OVERALL QPF STILL APPEARS TO
BE RATHER LIMITED THANKS TO...AS THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER
NOTED...ONLY A "THIN RIBBON" OF MOISTURE AND WEAK THETA-E RIDGING.
STILL...CHC POP FOR THURSDAY WILL REMAIN.
THIS FRONT WILL STALL JUST OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS
THE SECOND SHORTWAVE DIVES INTO THE TROUGH. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
INTO WHETHER ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL PERSIST FRIDAY TO KEEP SHOWERS
LOCALLY...BUT THE FRONT IN THE VICINITY COMBINED WITH SOME FORCING
AS THE SECOND SHORTWAVE MOVES OVERHEAD...WILL AT LEAST PROVIDE A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTN...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COAST. THERE SHOULD BE RAPID DRYING BEHIND THIS SECOND IMPULSE AS IT
DRIVES THE FRONT WELL FROM THE COAST...AND HALLOWEEN FESTIVITIES
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY...BUT COOL.
THEREAFTER A BIG COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED AS STRONG NEGATIVE ANOMALIES
DEVELOP ALOFT DRIVING INTENSE COLD ADVECTION ACROSS THE EAST. THE
FACT THAT IT WILL BE SO WARM EARLIER IN THE WEEK WILL MAKE IT FEEL
EVEN COLDER. EXTENDED MOS IS ALREADY 5-10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO
NORMS...A SURE SIGNAL OF THE VERY COLD AIR ANTICIPATED. THE 25/12Z
ECMWF SURE IS INTERESTING...BUT IS DISREGARDED ATTM FOR ITS
EXTREME (AND NEW) BEHAVIOR. THUS THE UPCOMING WEEKEND LOOKS COLD
AND DRY.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...VFR EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THIS TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE/DRYER AIR BUILDS INTO THE TERMINALS. CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED...
BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRAY SC THROUGH NOON. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT WSW-WNW EARLY...BECOMING NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KT AT ALL
TERMINALS 14-15Z AS THE INVERSION BREAKS. COULD BE A FEW GUSTS TO
20KT THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT THE GENERAL TREND IS FOR WIND
SPEEDS TO DECREASE. EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME LGT/VRBL BY THIS
EVENING.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT STALLS OFF THE COAST.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 950 AM SUNDAY...THE NORTHWEST WINDS ARE DECREASING THIS
MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT SHIFTS OVERHEAD. THE BUOY ARE
CURRENTLY FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH 10 TO 15
KNOTS STILL BLOWING AT 20 MILES OFF THE COAST. SEAS ARE RUNNING
AROUND 2 TO 3 FEET. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST TO MOVE OVER
THE WATERS WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AND SEAS WILL SETTLE OUT
AT 2 FEET OVER LESS OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE NEARLY OVERHEAD DURING
MONDAY...BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY...AND THEN MOVING WELL
EAST OF THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS CREATES A VERY WEAK GRADIENT
MONDAY WITH VARIABLE WINDS...ALTHOUGH A PRONOUNCED SEA BREEZE IS
EXPECTED WITH SE WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WITHIN THE NEAR-SHORE WATERS.
ELSEWHERE...WINDS WILL BE AROUND 5 KTS...VEERING FROM NE TO SOUTH
THROUGH THE DAY. AS RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS TUESDAY...WINDS WILL RISE
TO 10 KTS ACROSS ALL THE WATERS...WITH A SW DIRECTION PREDOMINANT.
THESE LIGHT WINDS WILL KEEP WAVE HEIGHTS LOW...1-2 FT
MONDAY...BECOMING 2-3 FT ONLY VERY LATE TUESDAY.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...COLD FRONT CROSSING THE WATERS EARLY THURSDAY
CREATES TWO DISTINCT REGIMES IN THE EXTENDED. IN THE PRE-FRONTAL
AIRMASS ON WEDNESDAY...SW WINDS WILL BE 10-15 KTS...CREATING 2-3 FT
SEAS. FRONT WILL CROSS FROM NW TO SE EARLY THURSDAY...WITH A
DECREASE IN SPEED AND A QUICK SHIFT TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION. THESE
NORTH WINDS OF AROUND 10 KTS WILL PERSIST THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. ALTHOUGH WAVE HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE AROUND 2 FT ON
THURSDAY...A CONFUSED SPECTRUM JUST BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS
EXPECTED AS NORTHERLY WINDS ENVELOP THE WATERS.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HAWKINS
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...MRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
950 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014
.DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT AT 230Z..FROM FAR NORTHEAST CORNER OK TO SC OK.
RADAR OVER SMALL CORNER OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA UNIMPRESSIVE
AT THIS TIME...JUST SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS. ONLY A COUPLE
LIGHTNING STRIKES ALL EVENING NORTHEAST OK.
LATEST WRF/HRRR DRIER THAN EARLIER RUNS. MODESTLY REDUCED
POP FOR REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THUNDER THREAT NEGLIGIBLE.
GW
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014/
DISCUSSION...
THE 00Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.
AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY INTO NORTHEAST OK AND
WILL CONTINUE TO THE SOUTHEAST THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD. POST
FRONTAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...WITH THE
BEST COVERAGE EXPTD OVER IN NW AR. BASED ON THIS THINKING...VCTS
WILL BE USED FOR THE ERN OK SITES AND TEMPO GROUPS WILL BE USED
FOR THE NW AR SITES...WITH THE TIMING BASED ON THE LATEST DATA
FROM THE RUC13 AND HRRR MODELS.
LACY
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014/
DISCUSSION...
AFTER A BREEZY AND WARM START TO THE WORK WEEK...A MUCH COOLER AND
DRIER WEATHER PATTERN WILL DEVELOP FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
FIRST...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA THIS
EVENING...TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MAINLY
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. LIMITED INSTABILITY WILL LESSEN THE
CHANCE FOR ANY OF THE STORMS TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE...HOWEVER
A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SMALL
HAIL...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING...AS THE
FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION SHIFTS TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST. BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL QUICKLY FILTER INTO
THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS NORTH...AS THE FRONT STALLS
ACROSS THE SOUTH CONTINUING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE
FAR SOUTHEAST. THE FRONT WILL FINALLY SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING...LEAVING COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER BURST
OF COOLER AIR FOR LATE IN THE WEEK. LOOKING AHEAD...ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SECOND ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 54 72 44 72 / 30 10 0 0
FSM 61 71 46 71 / 50 40 20 10
MLC 57 72 46 73 / 40 20 10 0
BVO 50 71 39 71 / 20 10 0 0
FYV 54 69 40 68 / 50 20 10 0
BYV 55 68 42 67 / 60 20 10 10
MKO 56 72 44 72 / 50 20 0 0
MIO 52 69 42 69 / 50 10 0 0
F10 56 71 47 72 / 30 10 0 0
HHW 63 71 51 73 / 20 40 20 10
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
626 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014
.DISCUSSION...
THE 00Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY INTO NORTHEAST OK AND
WILL CONTINUE TO THE SOUTHEAST THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD. POST
FRONTAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...WITH THE
BEST COVERAGE EXPTD OVER IN NW AR. BASED ON THIS THINKING...VCTS
WILL BE USED FOR THE ERN OK SITES AND TEMPO GROUPS WILL BE USED
FOR THE NW AR SITES...WITH THE TIMING BASED ON THE LATEST DATA
FROM THE RUC13 AND HRRR MODELS.
LACY
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014/
DISCUSSION...
AFTER A BREEZY AND WARM START TO THE WORK WEEK...A MUCH COOLER AND
DRIER WEATHER PATTERN WILL DEVELOP FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
FIRST...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA THIS
EVENING...TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MAINLY
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. LIMITED INSTABILITY WILL LESSEN THE
CHANCE FOR ANY OF THE STORMS TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE...HOWEVER
A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SMALL
HAIL...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING...AS THE
FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION SHIFTS TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST. BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL QUICKLY FILTER INTO
THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS NORTH...AS THE FRONT STALLS
ACROSS THE SOUTH CONTINUING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE
FAR SOUTHEAST. THE FRONT WILL FINALLY SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING...LEAVING COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER BURST
OF COOLER AIR FOR LATE IN THE WEEK. LOOKING AHEAD...ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SECOND ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 54 72 44 72 / 50 10 0 0
FSM 61 71 46 71 / 60 40 20 10
MLC 57 72 46 73 / 40 20 10 0
BVO 50 71 39 71 / 50 10 0 0
FYV 54 69 40 68 / 60 20 10 0
BYV 55 68 42 67 / 60 20 10 10
MKO 56 72 44 72 / 60 20 0 0
MIO 52 69 42 69 / 60 10 0 0
F10 56 71 47 72 / 50 10 0 0
HHW 63 71 51 73 / 40 40 20 10
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
1150 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
MVFR/IFR SHALLOW FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPING SITES KBVO KXNA KFYV
KFSM OVERNIGHT. FOG LIFTING BY 14Z ALL LOCATIONS AS SOUTH WINDS
INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE. VFR...BREEZY REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD,
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 842 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014/
DISCUSSION...
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS THIS
EVENING IS GRADUALLY GETTING SUPPRESSED...AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES EAST INTO THE NORTHWEST CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...A
STATIONARY FRONT LIES ACROSS NORTHERN KS OVER INTO CENTRAL MO. TO
THE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 60S. HIGHER THAN
NORMAL MOISTURE NEAR THE GROUND COMBINED WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL ALLOW FOG TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS. THE LATEST
GUIDANCE FROM THE HRRR AND NAM IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH OUR
FORECAST...AND THE ONLY TWEAK MADE WAS TO INTRODUCE FOG SOONER
ACROSS PORTIONS OF FAR EASTERN OK WHERE A REPORT OF FOG HAS BEEN
RECEIVED.
INCREASING MID LEVEL FLOW OVER THE ROCKPILE DUE TO THE FLATTENING
OF THE RIDGE MENTIONED EARLIER WILL PRODUCE A STRONG LEE TROUGH
AT THE SURFACE OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON SUNDAY. AS A
RESULT...LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME QUITE BREEZY ON SUNDAY
OUT OF THE SOUTH BY AFTERNOON...IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE ACROSS
NORTHEAST OK. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AND FULL INSOLATION WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB A BIT HIGHER THAN TODAY...WITH READINGS NEAR
90 ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST OK. HARD TO BELIEVE THIS IS OCCURRING
IN LATE OCTOBER. A DOSE OF REALITY IS COMING NEXT WEEK HOWEVER.
LACY
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 639 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014/
AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FOG LIKELY DEVELOPING AT SITES KBVO/KFYV/KXNA/KFSM AFTER
07Z. POTENTIAL IFR FOG/STRATUS...ESPECIALLY KFSM 09Z-14Z.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS...GENERALLY SKC. BRISK SOUTHERLY
WIND DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WITH GUST TO 20-25KT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014/
DISCUSSION...
IT IS LATE OCTOBER BUT THAT FACT IS NOT READILY APPARENT BY THE
CURRENT TEMPERATURES OR THE FORECAST TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. NEAR RECORD HEAT PREVAILS TODAY...WITH AT LEAST A
COUPLE OF SITES LIKELY TO BE WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF RECORD
HIGHS TOMORROW.
PATCHY DENSE FOG COULD BECOME AN ISSUE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY TOMORROW...WITH THE BIGGEST PROBLEMS LIKELY TO AGAIN BE IN
FAR EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS ALONG THE
ARKANSAS RIVER...AND POSSIBLY IN THE CANEY RIVER VALLEY NEAR
BARTLESVILLE AS WELL. NAM HANDLED THIS MORNINGS FOG THE BEST...AND
ITS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES LOOK SIMILAR TOMORROW MORNING.
CROSS OVER TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAVORABLE FOR THE DENSE FOG
DEVELOPMENT AGAIN. MUCH LIKE TODAY...THE FOG SHOULD BE GONE BY MID
TO LATE MORNING AND PROVIDE LITTLE HINDRANCE TO THE WARM UP. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN TODAYS
IN MOST SPOTS...DESPITE THE FLATTENING OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. A STRONGER SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND AHEAD OF A
SLOWLY APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD MORE THAN BALANCE THAT OUT.
THE FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO ENTER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY
MIDDAY MONDAY...WHICH WILL PLACE THE PREFRONTAL WARM NOSE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE TRICKY ON MONDAY DUE TO A COUPLE OF FACTORS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA BY THE
AFTERNOON...AND THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED MORNING
LOW CLOUDS IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. IN ADDITION...A COOLER AIRMASS
OVER THE GULF COAST THIS MORNING WILL MIGRATE INTO EASTERN PARTS
OF THE REGION ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNTIED STATES. THIS COOLER AIRMASS WILL OFFSET...AT
LEAST TO SOME EXTENT...PREFRONTAL WARMING EFFECTS. DESPITE THESE
COMPLICATIONS...CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT THERE WILL BE A
ZONE ACROSS AT LEAST EASTERN OKLAHOMA WHERE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
ABOVE GUIDANCE VALUES. RIGHT NOW...IT APPEARS THAT WILL BE
SOMEWHERE FROM INTERSTATE 44 SOUTHWARD TO ABOUT MCALESTER AND
WILBURTON.
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY AS THE
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AND THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PLAINS.
THUNDER POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO LOOK MINIMAL BUT NON ZERO. THE
FRONT SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY...BRINGING AN END
TO THE RAIN.
MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THIS FRONT AND
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK. WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES APPEAR IN THE OFFING FOR NEXT WEEKEND...AS MERIDIONAL
FLOW DEVELOPS IN THE PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO A DEEP UPPER TROUGH IN
THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE UNITED STATES. IT IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION THAT WE MAY SEE THE FIRST FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES OF THE
SEASON SOMETIME NEXT WEEKEND IF EXPECTATIONS DO NOT CHANGE IN THE
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 62 90 65 84 / 0 0 0 10
FSM 59 88 60 83 / 0 0 0 10
MLC 63 88 64 86 / 0 0 0 10
BVO 56 90 61 82 / 0 0 0 10
FYV 57 86 60 79 / 0 0 0 10
BYV 59 84 62 80 / 0 0 0 10
MKO 60 89 62 85 / 0 0 0 10
MIO 60 87 64 83 / 0 0 0 10
F10 62 88 64 86 / 0 0 0 10
HHW 61 87 60 83 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...21
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
1231 PM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014
ONE MORE DAY OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION. GRADIENT INCREASES SO IT WILL BE A BREEZY DAY THOUGH...WITH
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 30 MPH. THIS WIND COMBINED
WITH LOW HUMIDITY...WILL RESULT IN VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND ADJACENT NORTHWEST IOWA. FEEL
LIKE RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL GENERALLY STAY HIGH ENOUGH TO PREVENT
ANY RED FLAG CRITERIA.
STILL UNCERTAINTY ON STRATUS DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING. LOW LEVELS
REMAIN QUITE DRY...HOWEVER MODELS SHOW A NARROW CORRIDOR OF
MOISTENING AROUND 850 MB. NAM AND GFS SATURATE THIS
LEVEL...RESULTING IN A CORRIDOR OF STRATUS MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE CWA. RAP AND HRRR STAY SHORT OF SATURATING THEY LAYER...AND THUS
KEEP IT SUNNY. AT THIS TIME NO REAL WAY TO TELL WHICH IS
CORRECT...SO WILL GO WITH A COMPROMISE AND MONITOR TRENDS OVER THE
COMING HOURS. GIVEN THE LOWER SURFACE DEWPOINTS THAN ORIGINALLY
FORECAST...CONFIDENCE IS HOWEVER GROWING THAT DIURNALLY DRIVEN
STRATOCU GENERATION IS UNLIKELY. THUS THINKING ANY STRATUS THAT DOES
FORM WILL QUICKLY SHIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES RETURNING IN ITS WAKE. SO
OVERALL...EXPECTING MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS TODAY OVER THE CWA. GIVEN
THIS...AND WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT...WILL CONTINUE ON THE WARMER
SIDE OF GUIDANCE...UPPER 60S SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA TO MID AND UPPER
70S ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER AND WEST OF THE JAMES.
COLD FRONT WILL WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH WINDS
TURNING NORTHERLY BEHIND IT. ANOTHER SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND WORRIED WE COULD SEE STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT AFTER SUNSET EAST OF INTERSTATE 29. ALSO STARTING TO
THINK WE MAY SEE FOG FORMATION ON THE EDGE OF THIS STRATUS...WHERE
THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS WILL RESULT IN LIGHT SURFACE WINDS...AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP TOWARDS THE
RELATIVELY HIGH DEWPOINT VALUES WE WILL HAVE. THUS ADDED SOME FOG
INTO THE GRIDS FOR NORTHWEST IOWA AND ADJACENT SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.
COULD POTENTIALLY BE A BIT FURTHER WEST TO...SO SOMETHING TO WATCH.
FORCING INCREASES TONIGHT AS A WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THINK
WE COULD BEGIN TO SEE SHOWERS DEVELOP ALONG THE ELEVATED FRONT BY
12Z ACROSS OUR SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA ZONES...SO WENT AHEAD AND
ADDED SOME POPS INTO THAT REGION. SHOULD GENERALLY BE A MILD NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014
COULD VERY WELL BE SOME LINGERING FOG IN NORTHWEST IA THROUGH
MID MORNING MONDAY...BEHIND WHAT MAY BE DEPARTING STRATUS PLACING
THAT AREA IN A FAVORABLE ZONE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. OTHERWISE MONDAY
IS HIGHLIGHTED BY OUR WELL ADVERTISED MID AND UPPER WAVE PASSING
ACROSS THIS AREA. THE WAVE IS OPEN AND NOT REAL ORGANIZED...AT LEAST
WITH THE JET DYNAMICS AND UPPER QG FORCING. THE NAM IS MOST BULLISH
WITH THE MOISTURE DEPTH FROM 850-500MB THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA. THE
GFS AND ECMWF ARE A LITTLE LESS SO...AND ALSO QUICKER WITH THE WAVE
PASSAGE WHICH LOOKS PREFERABLE TO THE SLOWER NAM. WITH THE WAVE OPEN
NOT SURE WHAT WOULD HANG IT UP AS PER THE NAM SOLUTION. BUT ONE
THING THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON IS SHOWING THE PLACEMENT
OF THE LOW AND MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
SLOPED QUITE STRONGLY...WITH THE 850MB FRONTOGENESIS FAVORING
NORTHWEST IA WHERE LIMITED MOISTURE EXISTS AT THAT LEVEL. BUT
FURTHER NORTH...THE 700-600MB FRONTOGENESIS TAKES OVER AND THIS IS
WHERE THE HIGHEST POPS ARE PLACED. STILL...WITH THE SKITTISHNESS OF
THE OVERALL DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE PROFILE...KEPT POPS MAINLY ONLY IN
THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR LIGHT RAINFALL. SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY AND WILL BECOME QUITE BREEZY BY AFTERNOON. IN OUR FAR
WESTERN ZONES...THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER INDEX STAYS JUST INSIDE
THE HIGH CATEGORY...AS MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES LOOK A BIT TOO
HIGH...AND WIND SPEEDS A LITTLE TOO LOW TO WARRANT A VERY HIGH INDEX
AT THIS TIME. CONCERNING TEMPERATURES...COMPARED TO WHAT WE HAVE
BEEN HAVING LATELY...COOLER AIR WILL BE ADVECTING IN GIVING HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...WHICH IS STILL A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.
BUT THIS WILL CHANGE ON TUESDAY...AS COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES TO
POUR IN THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT ALONG A SECOND WAVE ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE PARENT UPPER TROUGH. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ONLY LOOK TO BE GENERALLY
IN THE RANGE OF 50 TO 55 DEGREES. AND WITH STOUT NORTHWEST WINDS OF
20 TO 30 MPH...WITH POTENTIALLY HIGHER GUSTS...THAT WILL ADD AN
EXTRA CHILL TO THE AIR. IN ADDITION...ALL OF THE VARIOUS
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE SHOWING A LOT OF MOISTURE IN THE 850-800MB
LAYER...GENERALLY BISECTING THE FORECAST AREA FROM NEAR HURON...TO
SIOUX FALLS AND STORM LAKE IOWA. ANYTHING ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF
THAT LINE WILL LIKELY BE CONSIDERABLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE DAY...WITH
INCREASINGLY SUNNY CONDITIONS HEADING TOWARD OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES.
THE FIRE DANGER ONCE AGAIN WILL BE ELEVATED IN THE HIGH CATEGORY...
BUT RIGHT NOW HUMIDITY VALUES LOOK TOO HIGH TO PLACE THE INDEX IN
THE VERY HIGH CATEGORY. FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH WINDS DECREASING
DRAMATICALLY AND CLEARING SKIES...LOWS WILL LIKELY BE ON THE COOL
SIDE OF MANY OF THE GUIDANCE VALUES. BECAUSE OF THIS...CHOSE TO GO
WITH THE BIAS CORRECTED RAW VALUES WHICH GAVE THE COOLEST LOW
TEMPERATURES OF AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING.
FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE FORECAST STILL LOOKS DRY AND
COOL. THE DETERMINISTIC GFS AND ECMWF FOR THE MOST PART ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH SATURDAY WHICH MAKES THE FORECAST EASIER. THERE IS
ONE WEAK WAVE WHICH MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ANOTHER STRONGER AND COLD SHORT WAVE DIVES DOWN THE FLOW THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH THIS SECOND FEATURE AND LIKELY
BETTER AS THE GFS LOOKS TOO WASHED OUT WITH THE WAVE. THEREFORE
CONTINUED TO BLEND SOME OF THE COOLER ECMWF VALUES INTO THE
CONSENSUS TEMPERATURES FOR LATE THIS WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014
VFR THROUGH 27/06Z. A FEW SURFACE GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS NORTHERN PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL 26/22Z. 27/06Z-18Z VFR WILL CONTINUE
NORTHWEST OF A SUX/MWM LINE WITH SLOWLY LOWERING CEILINGS AND
DEVELOPING SCATTERED -SHRA...WHILE CEILINGS LOWER TO 1-3K FEET
ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE SUX/MWM LINE. AREAS OF VISIBILITY 3-5SM
IN LIGHT FOG/BR WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA 27/09Z-15Z.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CHENARD
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
649 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014
ONE MORE DAY OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION. GRADIENT INCREASES SO IT WILL BE A BREEZY DAY THOUGH...WITH
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 30 MPH. THIS WIND COMBINED
WITH LOW HUMIDITY...WILL RESULT IN VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND ADJACENT NORTHWEST IOWA. FEEL
LIKE RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL GENERALLY STAY HIGH ENOUGH TO PREVENT
ANY RED FLAG CRITERIA.
STILL UNCERTAINTY ON STRATUS DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING. LOW LEVELS
REMAIN QUITE DRY...HOWEVER MODELS SHOW A NARROW CORRIDOR OF
MOISTENING AROUND 850 MB. NAM AND GFS SATURATE THIS
LEVEL...RESULTING IN A CORRIDOR OF STRATUS MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE CWA. RAP AND HRRR STAY SHORT OF SATURATING THEY LAYER...AND THUS
KEEP IT SUNNY. AT THIS TIME NO REAL WAY TO TELL WHICH IS
CORRECT...SO WILL GO WITH A COMPROMISE AND MONITOR TRENDS OVER THE
COMING HOURS. GIVEN THE LOWER SURFACE DEWPOINTS THAN ORIGINALLY
FORECAST...CONFIDENCE IS HOWEVER GROWING THAT DIURNALLY DRIVEN
STRATOCU GENERATION IS UNLIKELY. THUS THINKING ANY STRATUS THAT DOES
FORM WILL QUICKLY SHIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES RETURNING IN ITS WAKE. SO
OVERALL...EXPECTING MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS TODAY OVER THE CWA. GIVEN
THIS...AND WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT...WILL CONTINUE ON THE WARMER
SIDE OF GUIDANCE...UPPER 60S SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA TO MID AND UPPER
70S ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER AND WEST OF THE JAMES.
COLD FRONT WILL WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH WINDS
TURNING NORTHERLY BEHIND IT. ANOTHER SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND WORRIED WE COULD SEE STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT AFTER SUNSET EAST OF INTERSTATE 29. ALSO STARTING TO
THINK WE MAY SEE FOG FORMATION ON THE EDGE OF THIS STRATUS...WHERE
THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS WILL RESULT IN LIGHT SURFACE WINDS...AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP TOWARDS THE
RELATIVELY HIGH DEWPOINT VALUES WE WILL HAVE. THUS ADDED SOME FOG
INTO THE GRIDS FOR NORTHWEST IOWA AND ADJACENT SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.
COULD POTENTIALLY BE A BIT FURTHER WEST TO...SO SOMETHING TO WATCH.
FORCING INCREASES TONIGHT AS A WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THINK
WE COULD BEGIN TO SEE SHOWERS DEVELOP ALONG THE ELEVATED FRONT BY
12Z ACROSS OUR SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA ZONES...SO WENT AHEAD AND
ADDED SOME POPS INTO THAT REGION. SHOULD GENERALLY BE A MILD NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014
COULD VERY WELL BE SOME LINGERING FOG IN NORTHWEST IA THROUGH
MID MORNING MONDAY...BEHIND WHAT MAY BE DEPARTING STRATUS PLACING
THAT AREA IN A FAVORABLE ZONE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. OTHERWISE MONDAY
IS HIGHLIGHTED BY OUR WELL ADVERTISED MID AND UPPER WAVE PASSING
ACROSS THIS AREA. THE WAVE IS OPEN AND NOT REAL ORGANIZED...AT LEAST
WITH THE JET DYNAMICS AND UPPER QG FORCING. THE NAM IS MOST BULLISH
WITH THE MOISTURE DEPTH FROM 850-500MB THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA. THE
GFS AND ECMWF ARE A LITTLE LESS SO...AND ALSO QUICKER WITH THE WAVE
PASSAGE WHICH LOOKS PREFERABLE TO THE SLOWER NAM. WITH THE WAVE OPEN
NOT SURE WHAT WOULD HANG IT UP AS PER THE NAM SOLUTION. BUT ONE
THING THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON IS SHOWING THE PLACEMENT
OF THE LOW AND MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
SLOPED QUITE STRONGLY...WITH THE 850MB FRONTOGENESIS FAVORING
NORTHWEST IA WHERE LIMITED MOISTURE EXISTS AT THAT LEVEL. BUT
FURTHER NORTH...THE 700-600MB FRONTOGENESIS TAKES OVER AND THIS IS
WHERE THE HIGHEST POPS ARE PLACED. STILL...WITH THE SKITTISHNESS OF
THE OVERALL DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE PROFILE...KEPT POPS MAINLY ONLY IN
THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR LIGHT RAINFALL. SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY AND WILL BECOME QUITE BREEZY BY AFTERNOON. IN OUR FAR
WESTERN ZONES...THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER INDEX STAYS JUST INSIDE
THE HIGH CATEGORY...AS MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES LOOK A BIT TOO
HIGH...AND WIND SPEEDS A LITTLE TOO LOW TO WARRANT A VERY HIGH INDEX
AT THIS TIME. CONCERNING TEMPERATURES...COMPARED TO WHAT WE HAVE
BEEN HAVING LATELY...COOLER AIR WILL BE ADVECTING IN GIVING HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...WHICH IS STILL A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.
BUT THIS WILL CHANGE ON TUESDAY...AS COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES TO
POUR IN THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT ALONG A SECOND WAVE ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE PARENT UPPER TROUGH. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ONLY LOOK TO BE GENERALLY
IN THE RANGE OF 50 TO 55 DEGREES. AND WITH STOUT NORTHWEST WINDS OF
20 TO 30 MPH...WITH POTENTIALLY HIGHER GUSTS...THAT WILL ADD AN
EXTRA CHILL TO THE AIR. IN ADDITION...ALL OF THE VARIOUS
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE SHOWING A LOT OF MOISTURE IN THE 850-800MB
LAYER...GENERALLY BISECTING THE FORECAST AREA FROM NEAR HURON...TO
SIOUX FALLS AND STORM LAKE IOWA. ANYTHING ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF
THAT LINE WILL LIKELY BE CONSIDERABLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE DAY...WITH
INCREASINGLY SUNNY CONDITIONS HEADING TOWARD OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES.
THE FIRE DANGER ONCE AGAIN WILL BE ELEVATED IN THE HIGH CATEGORY...
BUT RIGHT NOW HUMIDITY VALUES LOOK TOO HIGH TO PLACE THE INDEX IN
THE VERY HIGH CATEGORY. FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH WINDS DECREASING
DRAMATICALLY AND CLEARING SKIES...LOWS WILL LIKELY BE ON THE COOL
SIDE OF MANY OF THE GUIDANCE VALUES. BECAUSE OF THIS...CHOSE TO GO
WITH THE BIAS CORRECTED RAW VALUES WHICH GAVE THE COOLEST LOW
TEMPERATURES OF AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING.
FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE FORECAST STILL LOOKS DRY AND
COOL. THE DETERMINISTIC GFS AND ECMWF FOR THE MOST PART ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH SATURDAY WHICH MAKES THE FORECAST EASIER. THERE IS
ONE WEAK WAVE WHICH MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ANOTHER STRONGER AND COLD SHORT WAVE DIVES DOWN THE FLOW THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH THIS SECOND FEATURE AND LIKELY
BETTER AS THE GFS LOOKS TOO WASHED OUT WITH THE WAVE. THEREFORE
CONTINUED TO BLEND SOME OF THE COOLER ECMWF VALUES INTO THE
CONSENSUS TEMPERATURES FOR LATE THIS WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014
CONFIDENCE IN MVFR STRATUS THIS MORNING IS DECREASING. STILL LOOKS
LIKE WE COULD SEE A SWATH OF STRATUS THAT DEVELOPS THIS MORNING
AROUND 2500 FEET...BUT EVEN IF THIS DOES FORM IT SHOULD BE PRETTY
PROGRESSIVE AND QUICKLY MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE TAF SITES. THUS
MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD END UP VFR...ALTHOUGH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
WILL BE GUSTING UP TO AROUND 25 KTS. COULD SEE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
STRATUS AND FOG AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT EAST OF INTERSTATE
29. FOR NOW THINK THAT IF THIS DOES FORM IT SHOULD STAY EAST OF
THE TAF SITES...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CHENARD
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...CHENARD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
416 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014
ONE MORE DAY OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION. GRADIENT INCREASES SO IT WILL BE A BREEZY DAY THOUGH...WITH
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 30 MPH. THIS WIND COMBINED
WITH LOW HUMIDITY...WILL RESULT IN VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND ADJACENT NORTHWEST IOWA. FEEL
LIKE RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL GENERALLY STAY HIGH ENOUGH TO PREVENT
ANY RED FLAG CRITERIA.
STILL UNCERTAINTY ON STRATUS DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING. LOW LEVELS
REMAIN QUITE DRY...HOWEVER MODELS SHOW A NARROW CORRIDOR OF
MOISTENING AROUND 850 MB. NAM AND GFS SATURATE THIS
LEVEL...RESULTING IN A CORRIDOR OF STRATUS MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE CWA. RAP AND HRRR STAY SHORT OF SATURATING THEY LAYER...AND THUS
KEEP IT SUNNY. AT THIS TIME NO REAL WAY TO TELL WHICH IS
CORRECT...SO WILL GO WITH A COMPROMISE AND MONITOR TRENDS OVER THE
COMING HOURS. GIVEN THE LOWER SURFACE DEWPOINTS THAN ORIGINALLY
FORECAST...CONFIDENCE IS HOWEVER GROWING THAT DIURNALLY DRIVEN
STRATOCU GENERATION IS UNLIKELY. THUS THINKING ANY STRATUS THAT DOES
FORM WILL QUICKLY SHIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES RETURNING IN ITS WAKE. SO
OVERALL...EXPECTING MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS TODAY OVER THE CWA. GIVEN
THIS...AND WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT...WILL CONTINUE ON THE WARMER
SIDE OF GUIDANCE...UPPER 60S SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA TO MID AND UPPER
70S ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER AND WEST OF THE JAMES.
COLD FRONT WILL WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH WINDS
TURNING NORTHERLY BEHIND IT. ANOTHER SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND WORRIED WE COULD SEE STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT AFTER SUNSET EAST OF INTERSTATE 29. ALSO STARTING TO
THINK WE MAY SEE FOG FORMATION ON THE EDGE OF THIS STRATUS...WHERE
THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS WILL RESULT IN LIGHT SURFACE WINDS...AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP TOWARDS THE
RELATIVELY HIGH DEWPOINT VALUES WE WILL HAVE. THUS ADDED SOME FOG
INTO THE GRIDS FOR NORTHWEST IOWA AND ADJACENT SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.
COULD POTENTIALLY BE A BIT FURTHER WEST TO...SO SOMETHING TO WATCH.
FORCING INCREASES TONIGHT AS A WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THINK
WE COULD BEGIN TO SEE SHOWERS DEVELOP ALONG THE ELEVATED FRONT BY
12Z ACROSS OUR SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA ZONES...SO WENT AHEAD AND
ADDED SOME POPS INTO THAT REGION. SHOULD GENERALLY BE A MILD NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014
COULD VERY WELL BE SOME LINGERING FOG IN NORTHWEST IA THROUGH
MID MORNING MONDAY...BEHIND WHAT MAY BE DEPARTING STRATUS PLACING
THAT AREA IN A FAVORABLE ZONE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. OTHERWISE MONDAY
IS HIGHLIGHTED BY OUR WELL ADVERTISED MID AND UPPER WAVE PASSING
ACROSS THIS AREA. THE WAVE IS OPEN AND NOT REAL ORGANIZED...AT LEAST
WITH THE JET DYNAMICS AND UPPER QG FORCING. THE NAM IS MOST BULLISH
WITH THE MOISTURE DEPTH FROM 850-500MB THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA. THE
GFS AND ECMWF ARE A LITTLE LESS SO...AND ALSO QUICKER WITH THE WAVE
PASSAGE WHICH LOOKS PREFERABLE TO THE SLOWER NAM. WITH THE WAVE OPEN
NOT SURE WHAT WOULD HANG IT UP AS PER THE NAM SOLUTION. BUT ONE
THING THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON IS SHOWING THE PLACEMENT
OF THE LOW AND MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
SLOPED QUITE STRONGLY...WITH THE 850MB FRONTOGENESIS FAVORING
NORTHWEST IA WHERE LIMITED MOISTURE EXISTS AT THAT LEVEL. BUT
FURTHER NORTH...THE 700-600MB FRONTOGENESIS TAKES OVER AND THIS IS
WHERE THE HIGHEST POPS ARE PLACED. STILL...WITH THE SKITTISHNESS OF
THE OVERALL DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE PROFILE...KEPT POPS MAINLY ONLY IN
THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR LIGHT RAINFALL. SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY AND WILL BECOME QUITE BREEZY BY AFTERNOON. IN OUR FAR
WESTERN ZONES...THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER INDEX STAYS JUST INSIDE
THE HIGH CATEGORY...AS MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES LOOK A BIT TOO
HIGH...AND WIND SPEEDS A LITTLE TOO LOW TO WARRANT A VERY HIGH INDEX
AT THIS TIME. CONCERNING TEMPERATURES...COMPARED TO WHAT WE HAVE
BEEN HAVING LATELY...COOLER AIR WILL BE ADVECTING IN GIVING HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...WHICH IS STILL A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.
BUT THIS WILL CHANGE ON TUESDAY...AS COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES TO
POUR IN THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT ALONG A SECOND WAVE ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE PARENT UPPER TROUGH. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ONLY LOOK TO BE GENERALLY
IN THE RANGE OF 50 TO 55 DEGREES. AND WITH STOUT NORTHWEST WINDS OF
20 TO 30 MPH...WITH POTENTIALLY HIGHER GUSTS...THAT WILL ADD AN
EXTRA CHILL TO THE AIR. IN ADDITION...ALL OF THE VARIOUS
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE SHOWING A LOT OF MOISTURE IN THE 850-800MB
LAYER...GENERALLY BISECTING THE FORECAST AREA FROM NEAR HURON...TO
SIOUX FALLS AND STORM LAKE IOWA. ANYTHING ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF
THAT LINE WILL LIKELY BE CONSIDERABLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE DAY...WITH
INCREASINGLY SUNNY CONDITIONS HEADING TOWARD OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES.
THE FIRE DANGER ONCE AGAIN WILL BE ELEVATED IN THE HIGH CATEGORY...
BUT RIGHT NOW HUMIDITY VALUES LOOK TOO HIGH TO PLACE THE INDEX IN
THE VERY HIGH CATEGORY. FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH WINDS DECREASING
DRAMATICALLY AND CLEARING SKIES...LOWS WILL LIKELY BE ON THE COOL
SIDE OF MANY OF THE GUIDANCE VALUES. BECAUSE OF THIS...CHOSE TO GO
WITH THE BIAS CORRECTED RAW VALUES WHICH GAVE THE COOLEST LOW
TEMPERATURES OF AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING.
FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE FORECAST STILL LOOKS DRY AND
COOL. THE DETERMINISTIC GFS AND ECMWF FOR THE MOST PART ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH SATURDAY WHICH MAKES THE FORECAST EASIER. THERE IS
ONE WEAK WAVE WHICH MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ANOTHER STRONGER AND COLD SHORT WAVE DIVES DOWN THE FLOW THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH THIS SECOND FEATURE AND LIKELY
BETTER AS THE GFS LOOKS TOO WASHED OUT WITH THE WAVE. THEREFORE
CONTINUED TO BLEND SOME OF THE COOLER ECMWF VALUES INTO THE
CONSENSUS TEMPERATURES FOR LATE THIS WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1041 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z/26. SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING
ACROSS THE AREA WITH MARGINAL LOW LEVEL JET AT KHON. FURTHER EAST
THE LOW LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER....SO DID NOT
INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST. MVFR STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS NEBRASKA AND LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA
INTO MINNESOTA AND IOWA. HAVE INCLUDED SOME LOWER CEILINGS AT BOTH
KFSD AND KSUX. QUESTIONS REMAINS AS TO WHETHER THE CEILING WILL
MIX OUT...OR WILL HANG TOUGH THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CHENARD
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1155 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014
.AVIATION...
VFR THRU THE EVNG HOURS. LLVL MOISTURE IS BEGINNING TO RETURN BACK
TO THE REGION & WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT
AGAIN TONIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT & MON MORNING. HELD OFF ON THIS
ATTM AND JUST ADVERTISED SCT 1000-2000 FT DECKS...BUT LATER SHIFTS
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THINGS AND AMEND IF NECESSARILY.
ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS AREAWIDE TOWARD MID MORNING. TIGHTENING
PRES GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO INCREASE SRLY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY. 47
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 945 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014/
HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
THIS MORNING. THE PATCHY FOG WHICH HAD BEEN OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS WAS DISSIPATING AS OF 9 AM. THIS WAS ON PAR WITH
THE NAMBUFR AND RUC13 MODEL SOUNDING FORECASTS.
WILL ISSUE AN UPDATE TO TAKE OUT THE FOG MENTION. 40
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 86 62 86 66 85 / 0 0 10 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 86 63 85 67 85 / 0 0 10 10 20
GALVESTON (GLS) 80 71 81 74 81 / 0 0 10 10 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
945 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014
.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
THIS MORNING. THE PATCHY FOG WHICH HAD BEEN OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS WAS DISSIPATING AS OF 9 AM. THIS WAS ON PAR WITH
THE NAMBUFR AND RUC13 MODEL SOUNDING FORECASTS.
WILL ISSUE AN UPDATE TO TAKE OUT THE FOG MENTION.
40
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 658 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014/
UPDATE...
FOG IN THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES GETTING THICKER AND FEW SITES
REPORTING VISBY OF 1/2 MILE OR LESS. HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR THE AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10 TO
BELTWAY 8 AND WEST OF I-45. THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BETWEEN 8 AND
9 AM.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 639 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014/
DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...
MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS THIS PERIOD CENTER AROUND FOG THIS MORNING
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS MONDAY MORNING.
PATCHY FOG AS OF 11Z IS RESULTING IN TEMPO CATEGORY REDUCTIONS AT
KCXO...KSGR...AND KLBX. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND AMEND AS
NECESSARY...BUT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATE SURFACE HEATING TO DISSIPATE
FOG BY 14Z. OTHERWISE... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS MORNING WILL
STRENGTHEN TO NEAR 10 KTS BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS LEE SURFACE TROUGH
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS DEEPENS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND MODEL RH
FIELDS INDICATE A POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS TOMORROW MORNING FOR
TAF SITES MAINLY NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10 COURTESY LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION OFF THE GULF. WILL NOT INTRODUCE ANY
CATEGORY CHANGES AT THIS TIME /DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE AND
OCCURRENCE AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD/...BUT LATER SHIFTS
MAY NEED TO INTRODUCE MVFR CIGS.
14
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014/
DISCUSSION...
SO FAR THIS MORNING MAINLY JUST PATCHY FOG OVER THE SOUTHWEST
AREAS...GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10-WEST OF I-45. STILL A
FEW MORE HOURS TO RADIATE DOWN AND GIVEN THE LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW
OF THE LAST FEW HOURS THE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S EXPECT THE FOG
TO GET A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD BUT ANY DENSE FOG SHOULD BE VERY
PATCHY AND SHALLOW BUT RURAL AREAS WILL LIKELY HAVE FOG.
TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY WITH A SLOW INCREASE IN
DEWPOINTS AS SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED WITH THE EASTWARD
RETREAT OF THE SURFACE RIDGING. A FEW CU WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP
OVER THE SOUTHWEST AREAS WITH FULL SUN ELSEWHERE. THE UPPER
RIDGING ACROSS TX WILL FLATTEN AND SHIFT EAST INTO FLORIDA MONDAY
WITH AN UNUSUALLY STRONG RIDGE FORMING NW OF HAWAII. DOWNSTREAM
THE TROUGH DROPS DOWN THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH MOISTURE AND
SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING MONDAY (MAYBE EVEN BREEZY IN THE LATE
MORNING/AFTERNOON HOURS). THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES EAST TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT LOSES STEAM AS IT
DROPS OUT OF NETX INTO SETX. RAIN CHANCES DO INCREASE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH A 20-40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. VERY LOW CAPE ENVIRONMENT
SUPPORTS SOME GARDEN VARIETY THUNDERSTORMS WITH SLOW MOVING STORMS
THE FAVORED TYPE BUT HEAVY RAIN SEEMS UNLIKELY GIVEN THE WEAK
FORCING AND LOW PW VALUES. UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES EARLY THURSDAY
TAPPING INTO A CANADIAN AIRMASS THAT RACES SOUTH AND REINFORCES
THE SAGGY PACIFIC COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD BE REACHING THE COAST
THURSDAY EVENING...FOLLOWED BY THE CANADIAN AIRMASS ON HALLOWEEN.
RAIN CHANCES PLUMMET THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE SUBSIDENCE RAMPS UP AND
LL FOCUS SHIFT OUT INTO THE GULF. HALLOWEEN SHOULD BE DRY/COOL
WITH NORTHERLY FLOW. THE GHOULS AND GOBLINS SHOULD HAVE A
WONDERFUL EVENING AS TEMPERATURES FALL FROM THE MID 70S AROUND
4-5PM TO LOWER 60S BY 8-9PM WITH A HALF MOON AND CLEAR SKIES.
GFS AND ECMWF DO START TO PAINT AN INTERESTING PATTERN DEVELOPING
AROUND 240 HOURS AND BEYOND WITH A DEEP TROUGH TO THE WEST AND
VERY JUICY TROPICAL TAP FEEDING OFF OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE
PACIFIC THAT GETS CAUGHT UP AND PULLED ACROSS MEXICO TOWARD
SETX/CNTX/STX...PERHAPS A HEAVY RAIN EVENING IN THE MAKING. WILL
HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS PATTERNS EVOLUTION IN THE COMING WEEK.
45
MARINE...
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY
AS SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS FROM LEE TROUGH ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE. WINDS/SEAS WILL INCREASE ACCORDINGLY... WITH WINDS NEAR
15 KTS POSSIBLE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS STARTING LATE TONIGHT. GIVEN
BORDERLINE CONDITIONS...LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO INCLUDE CAUTION
STATEMENTS /PRIMARILY FOR MONDAY NIGHT/. BY MID-WEEK... WINDS/SEAS
WILL FALL AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM. A WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY AS THIS SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT
PLAINS. FRONT LOOKS TO STALL ALONG THE COAST...BEFORE RECEIVING A
SECONDARY PUSH OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY. MODERATE TO STRONG
OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE FRONT/S WAKE WILL PROBABLY REQUIRE ADVISORY
FLAGS INTO THE 1ST PART OF THE WEEKEND. ONSHORE FLOW LOOKS TO RESUME
BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.
14
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 86 62 86 66 85 / 0 0 10 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 86 63 85 67 85 / 0 0 10 10 20
GALVESTON (GLS) 80 71 81 74 81 / 0 0 10 10 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...47
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1225 AM CDT Sun Oct 26 2014
.DISCUSSION...
Please see the 06Z aviation discussion below.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR flight conditions with generally light winds will prevail through
the forecast period across all TAF sites. The only change of note
to the going TAFs was to remove the mention of MVFR fog at KHOB
Sunday morning, as recent guidance indicates the potential for fog
development to be very low.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 916 PM CDT Sat Oct 25 2014/
DISCUSSION...
Satellite imagery shows another clear night over West Texas and SE
NM, w/sfc obs showing a little more return flow than 24 hours ago.
Latest NAM develops a 30+kt LLJ overnight. this, and the fact that
very little fog developed last night, fog development looks
doubtful overnight. The HRRR agrees. However, forecast soundings
suggest temps can be lowered a couple of degrees. We`ll do a quick
update for this, and adjust other parameters as necessary. Updates
out shortly.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 148 PM CDT Sat Oct 25 2014/
DISCUSSION...
Areal coverage of fog was less this morning than yesterday, with
only a couple of observation sites reporting dense fog this morning,
and satellite imagery verifying very sparse coverage overall. An
upper ridge over the region will keep well above normal temperatures
going this afternoon and Sunday. Further drying of the boundary
layer, and more pointedly the ground, in addition to the warmer
afternoon temperatures taking longer to cool to surface dewpoints
overnight will likely continue the trend of less fog the next couple
of mornings.
The next couple of days temperatures will approach, if not eclipse,
record levels as the ua ridge over the region flattens due to an ua
trough traversing the western/central ConUS. The record high
temperature for Midland International Airport is 90 degrees for
today, the 25th, but also the 26th and 27th in 2011, 1950 and 1988
respectively. Although record highs are not looking likely this
afternoon, a surface trough developing south into the area Sunday,
and the associated low level thermal ridge, could allow temps to
warm near record levels. On Monday, increasing southwesterly flow
aloft will aid and abet southwest to west downslope, surface winds,
which could also promote temperatures warming to near, or above,
record levels. The only caveat Monday will be some increase in high
clouds tempering readings a little. Southwest winds will increase
the most in the Guadalupe Mountains Monday, but at this time it does
not appear mid level winds will be strong enough for high winds
there.
A fairly significant cool down is expected Tuesday as a cold front
drops south into the region in the wake of the mentioned ua trough.
Subsequent shifts will have to monitor whether a high gap wind event
will be possible in Guadalupe Pass behind the front. High
temperatures will end up 2 to 5 degrees below normal Tuesday
afternoon, especially north of Interstate 10. In addition,
temperatures could cool into the upper 50s over southeast New Mexico
and the northern Permian Basin late Tuesday afternoon. Seasonal
temperatures will prevail areawide Wednesday before a gradual
warming trend sets in Thursday and beyond. Just how much it warms
late next week will depend on how aggressively an ua ridge builds
eastward over the region, and will likely split the difference
between more/less aggressive model offerings. As far as rain
chances, showers and thunderstorms could affect the Lower Trans
Pecos, westward into the Davis Mountains and Big Bend region Tuesday
to Thursday. Since the amplitude of the passing ua troughs are not
progged to be very deep, and the quality of moisture over the region
is not progged to be very good, will leave the extended forecast dry
for now.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
84
Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
http://facebook.com/NWSMidland
http://twitter.com/NWSMidland
Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
545 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINGING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA
BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE FIRST WIDESPREAD FROST
OF THE SEASON SO FAR MAY OCCUR THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THERE HAS BEEN AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE OFFSHORE HIGH. THIS MOISTURE PLUS
NOCTURNAL COOLING WITH DRY AIR ALOFT HAS HELPED CAUSE WIDESPREAD DENSE
FOG IN THE EASTERN MIDLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING AND WE HAVE POSTED
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THAT SECTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
HRRR DISPLAYS THE FOG SPREADING WESTWARD AND INTO MUCH OF THE
REMAINING FORECAST AREA BEFORE 900 AM. WE MAY NEED TO EXPAND THE
ADVISORY WESTWARD. HOWEVER...DEW POINT TEMPERATURES ARE LOWER IN
THE WEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AND SATELLITE TRENDS HAVE
INDICATED LITTLE DEVELOPMENT WESTWARD AND INTO THIS DRIER AIR.
THE MOISTURE IS SHALLOW. HEATING AND MIXING SHOULD DISSIPATE THE
FOG LATER THIS MORNING. THE HRRR SHOWS FOG DIMINISHING BETWEEN
1000 AM AND 1100 AM.
IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH PLENTY OF AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. WE
USED THE WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BASED ON RECENT VERIFICATION.
EXPECT READINGS JUST SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN YESTERDAY BASED ON THE
INCREASED MOISTURE AND WEAK H85 COLD ADVECTION.
THE DRY WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH THE RIDGING REMAINING
DOMINATE. NOCTURNAL COOLING AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY SUPPORT AREAS
OF FOG AGAIN BUT THE FOG MAY BE LIMITED BY AN INCREASE IN
BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. IT MAY BE MORE
STRATUS THAN FOG BECAUSE OF THIS WIND. LEANED TOWARD THE MORE
CONSISTENT MAV MOS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE NAM AND GFS DISPLAY THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WEDNESDAY. THE NAM AND GFS
MOS HAVE CHANCE POPS AND THIS APPEARS REASONABLE. SATELLITE TRENDS
AND THE MODELS INDICATE THE STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL LIFT WILL STAY
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALSO EXPECT THE H85 FLOW WILL TURN
WESTERLY WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT LIMITING MOISTURE. THE NAM
DISPLAYS SURFACE-BASED LI/S -2 TO -3 WEDNESDAY. THE THUNDERSTORM
CHANCE IS LOW BECAUSE OF THE WEAK INSTABILITY AND FORCING. THE NAM
AND GFS INDICATE JUST LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS. USED THE WARMER
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BECAUSE WE SHOULD BE JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. MIXING BEHIND THE FRONT SUPPORTS THE
WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL FEATURE A COOLING TREND TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND POSSIBLY OUR FIRST WIDESPREAD FROST OF THE FALL
SEASON SATURDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THIS
PERIOD.
DRYING IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT SHOULD OCCUR THURSDAY. THE
MODELS SHOW A REINFORCING COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THIS FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE ORIGINATING IN CENTRAL
CANADA WILL DOMINATE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND
EKD MOS HAVE LOWS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. FROST MAY OCCUR DURING THESE NIGHTS.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EARLY MORNING FOG AND STRATUS UNTIL AROUND 14Z.
LATEST 11U-3.9U IR SHOWING LOW CLOUDS/FOG SPREADING FROM THE
LOWCOUNTRY INTO THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE AN INCREASED FOG THREAT EARLY
THIS MORNING. THINK ALL TAF SITES WILL BE AFFECTED...WITH LIFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT AGS AND OGB...AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AT
CAE/CUB/DNL.
AFTER MORNING FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUDINESS DISSIPATES...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO RETURN BY 14Z. . HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIP TO OUR EAST
AND A SW WIND EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. FEW TO SCT CU POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON.
.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE LATE TUE NT/EARLY WED MORNING. A FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH LATE WED/WED NT PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...AND
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
DAILY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE NOT ESTABLISHED MONDAY.
DAILY RECORD HIGHS FOR TUESDAY 10/28 ARE:
CAE...90/1984
AGS...89/1984
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ016-022-
029-031-036>038-041.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
234 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINGING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA
BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE FIRST WIDESPREAD FROST
OF THE SEASON SO FAR MAY OCCUR THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THERE HAS BEEN AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE OFFSHORE HIGH. THIS MOISTURE PLUS
NOCTURNAL COOLING WITH DRY AIR ALOFT HAS HELPED CAUSE DENSE FOG IN
THE EASTERN MIDLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE HRRR DISPLAYS THE FOG
SPREADING WESTWARD TO NEAR A COLUMBIA TO AUGUSTA LINE LATER THIS
MORNING. WE HAVE POSTED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE EASTERN
MIDLANDS. THE ADVISORY MAY BE EXPANDED WESTWARD LATER THIS MORNING.
THE MOISTURE IS SHALLOW. HEATING AND MIXING SHOULD DISSIPATE THE
FOG LATER THIS MORNING. THE HRRR SHOWS FOG DIMINISHING BETWEEN
1000 AM AND 1100 AM.
IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH PLENTY OF AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. WE
USED THE WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BASED ON RECENT VERIFICATION.
EXPECT READINGS JUST SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN YESTERDAY BASED ON THE
INCREASED MOISTURE AND WEAK H85 COLD ADVECTION.
THE DRY WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH THE RIDGING REMAINING
DOMINATE. NOCTURNAL COOLING AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY SUPPORT AREAS
OF FOG AGAIN BUT THE FOG MAY BE LIMITED BY AN INCREASE IN
BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. IT MAY BE MORE
STRATUS THAN FOG BECAUSE OF THIS WIND. LEANED TOWARD THE MORE
CONSISTENT MAV MOS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE NAM AND GFS DISPLAY THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WEDNESDAY. THE NAM AND GFS
MOS HAVE CHANCE POPS AND THIS APPEARS REASONABLE. SATELLITE TRENDS
AND THE MODELS INDICATE THE STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL LIFT WILL STAY
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALSO EXPECT THE H85 FLOW WILL TURN
WESTERLY WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT LIMITING MOISTURE. THE NAM
DISPLAYS SURFACE-BASED LI/S -2 TO -3 WEDNESDAY. THE THUNDERSTORM
CHANCE IS LOW BECAUSE OF THE WEAK INSTABILITY AND FORCING. THE NAM
AND GFS INDICATE JUST LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS. USED THE WARMER
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BECAUSE WE SHOULD BE JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. MIXING BEHIND THE FRONT SUPPORTS THE
WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL FEATURE A COOLING TREND TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND POSSIBLY OUR FIRST WIDESPREAD FROST OF THE FALL
SEASON SATURDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THIS
PERIOD.
DRYING IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT SHOULD OCCUR THURSDAY. THE
MODELS SHOW A REINFORCING COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THIS FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE ORIGINATING IN CENTRAL
CANADA WILL DOMINATE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND
EKD MOS HAVE LOWS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. FROST MAY OCCUR DURING THESE NIGHTS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG AND STRATUS EXPECTED.
LATEST 11U-3.9U IR SHOWING LOW CLOUDS/FOG SPREADING FROM THE
LOWCOUNTRY INTO THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
AFTER MORNING FOG OR LOW CLOUDINESS DISSIPATES...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIP TO OUR EAST AND A SW WIND
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. FEW TO SCT CU POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.
.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE LATE TUE NT/EARLY WED MORNING. A FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH LATE WED/WED NT PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...AND
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
DAILY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE NOT ESTABLISHED MONDAY.
DAILY RECORD HIGHS FOR TUESDAY 10/28 ARE:
CAE...90/1984
AGS...89/1984
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ016-022-
029-031-036>038-041.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
1250 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1250 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
TO THE AREA THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH COOLER
AND DRIER AIR FUNNELING BACK IN THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL GENERALLY HOLD IN THE 60S...WITH LOWS
TONIGHT FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE LOW 40S. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WILL FEATURE DRY CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOW TO MID
50S EACH DAY.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 714 PM EDT MON OCT 27 2014
SUBTLE BAND OF ENHANCED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT
IS CURRENTLY TOUCHING OFF A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE AREA WITH THE HELP OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES. LOWER LEVELS
ARE STILL RELATIVELY DRY AND QPF AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN LIGHT BUT DID
EXPAND AND PUSH UP THE TIMING OF POPS FOR THE EARLY OVERNIGHT
PERIOD IN LIGHT OF LATEST RADAR IMAGERY AND CG LIGHTNING REPORTS.
STILL EXPECT PRECIP TO EXPAND IN OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES LATER
TONIGHT AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES SO NO MAJOR CHANGES AFTER
06Z...AN IDEA SUPPORTED BY LATEST HRRR AND RAP GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM EDT MON OCT 27 2014
REASONABLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT FOR TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND PCPN CHANCES. WATER VAPOR THIS
AFTERNOON CLEARLY SHOWS PARENT LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH
PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MS VALLEY
REGION STREAMING NORTHEAST TOWARD OUR AREA. MAIN SHORT WAVE RIDING
AROUND BASE OF UPPER LOW AND SHOULD MOVE THROUGH HERE LATER
TONIGHT. INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION THROUGH THE EVENING WITH
INITIAL WEAK LEAD SHORT WAVE AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET TO 50
KNOTS MAY AID IN A FEW SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN HALF
OF THE CWA EARLY THIS EVENING. HIRES GUIDANCE ALL SHOWING THIS
DEVELOPMENT WHILE AFTERNOON RADAR MOSAIC INDEED SHOWS SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT ALREADY BEGINNING OVER EASTERN MO INTO WESTERN IL.
WILL ACCOUNT FOR THIS WITH A LOW TO MODERATE POP FROM 00Z THROUGH
06Z THEN RAMPING UP POPS AFTER 06Z...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN AREAS
AS MAIN SHORT WAVE APPROACHES. EXPECT BURGEONING AREA OF PCPN
UPSTREAM THIS EVENING WITH BEST FORCING AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE WHICH
SHOULD THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE GIVEN MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS
BUT NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER. COULD SEE A FEW ISOLATED STRONG
WIND GUSTS WITH STRONGEST UPDRAFTS GIVEN LOW LEVEL JET.
SPEED OF SYSTEM AND DISTANCE CURRENTLY BETWEEN PARENT LOW AND
MOISTURE FEED SUPPORT STRONG DRY SLOT MOVING IN TUESDAY QUICKLY
ENDING PCPN FROM WEST TO EAST. MODEL DEPICTIONS SHOW STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING WITH SKY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BECOME MOSTLY
SUNNY. A BIT CONCERNED ABOUT STRATOCUMULUS FILLING IN DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION ALOFT BUT NOT READY TO GO AGAINST
SUBSIDENCE AND PRIOR TRENDS AT THIS TIME.
LOWS TONIGHT LIKELY TO REMAIN IN THE 60S MOST AREAS WITH CLOUD COVER
AND WINDS. TEMPS NOT EXPECTED TO DO MUCH ON TUESDAY WITH MORNING
COLD FRONT PASSAGE. COLDER AIR INITIALLY SLOW TO INFILTRATE...LIKELY
BEING OFFSET BY CLEARING AND DIURNAL SUN IN EARLY AFTERNOON. SHOULD
SEE TEMPS FALL MORE RAPIDLY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS SUN BEGINS TO
SET AND COLD WEDGE DEEPENS OVER THE AREA...ESPECIALLY IF MORE CLOUD
COVER DEVELOPS. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S EXPECTED SOMEWHERE IN
THE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
&&
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM EDT MON OCT 27 2014
PERIOD WILL START ON THE QUIET SIDE WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW HOLDS ACROSS THE
REGION. MODEST WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL TRY TO NOSE IN THURS INTO
THURS NIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG PIECE OF ENERGY WHICH WILL BREAK OFF
FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN CANADA. FOLLOWING THE FAR SUPERIOR
ECMWF OF THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS IN THESE MORE ENERGIZED PATTERN A
BRIEF BUT POTENT SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
WITH MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS
BOTH WITH PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT AND IN ITS WAKE WITH
FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. AT THIS POINT...BULK OF THE COLDEST AIR WILL
BYPASS THE FORECAST AREA BUT THAT BEING SAID 850 MB TEMPS WILL STILL
DROP INTO THE -6 TO -8 C RANGE AT 850 MB. ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THE
SYSTEM SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE. WITH THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR
COMING IN AND 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES DROPPING BELOW 1300 M...THE
CONCERN IS RAISED FOR A BIT OF WET SNOW BEING MIXED IN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS SHOW BELOW FREEZING TEMPS THROUGH 925 MB...BUT
SFC TEMPS SUGGEST READINGS AROUND 40. A MENTION OF SNOW MAY NOT HURT
IN FAR NE AREAS BUT HOLDING OFF FOR NOW WITH BEST TIME FRAME
OCCURRING AS BEST PRECIP CHANCES ARE DEPARTING.
AS MENTIONED...COLD AIR WILL BE SHORT AS DEEP UPPER LOW PIVOTS OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH A CONTINUED BUT MORE RELAXED NW FLOW IN
TERMS OF COLD AIR ALOFT ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO BEGIN TO MODERATE BACK
TOWARDS NORMAL BY MONDAY AS WARM FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE TOWARDS THE
REGION. ECMWF SUGGESTS SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ON THE NOSE OF
INCREASING THETA E BUT WITH AMOUNT OF DRY AIR STILL IN PLACE WILL BE
SOMEWHAT CONSERVATIVE AND KEEP TONED DOWN ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN
AREAS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL SPREAD INTO KSBN AFTER 08-09Z AND KFWA BY
10-11Z ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. A PERIOD OF MVFR
CIGS/VIS REMAINS POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE/RAIN...OTHERWISE
MAINLY VFR. MAINTAINED VCTS GIVEN MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. A
QUICK IMPROVEMENT TO DRY/VFR IS EXPECTED MID-LATE MORNING AT KSBN
AND EARLY AFTERNOON AT KFWA AS SYSTEM DRY SLOT OVERSPREADS THE
REGION.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AGD
SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...LASHLEY
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
318 AM CDT Tue Oct 28 2014
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 228 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014
Recent water vapor satellite imagery depicts a strong upper wave
rotating through the main upper trough across northern Kansas. A few
bands of mainly weak radar returns have passed through much of the
local area in recent hours via rather strong upper level
frontogenesis, but quite dry low levels limiting this to very light
amounts (if any) reaching the ground. NAM and RAP indicate both
forcing and moisture aloft diminishing through sunrise and these
processes seem to be underway per latest IR and radar trends.
Surface high pressure was building into the central High Plains with
temps there around the freezing mark under mainly clear skies and
light winds. It appears radar-produced low-level winds are being
impacted by bird migration with speeds likely 10-20kt too high.
Cold air advection becomes rather modest today, but much cooler air
than recent days will keep highs in the lower to mid 60s in decent
mixing. There should be a second round of high cloud in the morning
to early afternoon, but the late afternoon and nighttime hours
should be clear as the surface high comes into the Central Plains.
Expect some modification of the upstream airmass today, where local
temps have been well above normal for several days. Lows will be
kept above freezing, with slightly lower values likely in protected
areas. Have boosted frost wording but rather dry airmass and the
very warm ground may keep widespread frost in check.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 228 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014
A cool start expected for Wednesday with morning frost possible
across much of the forecast area. Temperatures still should make
it to lower to middle 60s as southerly winds slowly move into the
area from the west on the back side of the surface high. Some
amplified mixing and southerly flow comes through with the clipper
along and just to our north early Thursday, bringing mixed
overnight low temperatures in the 40s. Despite cooler air moving
driving southward into the northern and central plains for
Thursday, our area is on the leading edge of the colder air and
should mix to another day in the 60s before the colder
temperatures make it southward.
Again incoming high pressure and northerly winds through the night
Thursday night into Friday look to keep lows from tanking too far,
but do have lows in the 30s north to near 40 south. Sunshine
should help get temperatures into the 50s for Friday afternoon.
The surface high moves into the upper Midwest late Friday into
early Saturday, and keeps push of colder air over eastern Kansas
with lows forecast in the 30s. Another quick return of an upper
ridge and southerly surface winds should bring highs back into the
50s for Saturday.
How the next round of upper trofs moves out of the Rockies for
Sunday into Monday varies within the extended models. Could see
some warm air advection showers early Sunday but chances too low
for mention this early. Both EC and GFS suggest better chances for
rain come later Sunday into Monday and will keep grids as such,
but smaller scale and progressive nature of the waves will likely
change timing and probabilities as forecast draws closer.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1120 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014
VFR prevails as northwesterly winds back to the west and weaken
through 17Z. BKN cloud cover gradually exits east as influence from
surface high pressure spreads eastward. Another passing upper wave
increase westerly winds to near 10 kts during the afternoon with
SCT high clouds in place.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...Bowen
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1047 PM MDT MON OCT 27 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1047 PM MDT MON OCT 27 2014
UPDATE TO ZONE FORECAST TO REMOVE ANY MENTION OF SPRINKLES OVER
SOUTHERN ZONES...AND TO ADJUST TEMPS BASED ON LATEST HOURLIES.
CLOUD COVER FINALLY GIVING WAY TO CLEAR SKIES OVER THE
AREA...WHICH IS ALLOWING TEMPS TO DROP BY SEVERAL DEGREES IN MANY
LOCALES. HAVE OPTED NOT TO PUT ANY FURTHER AREAS IN FREEZE WARNING
OVERNIGHT OTHER THAN CURRENT COLORADO ZONES. TEMPS ARE DROPPING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S...BUT WITH WESTERLY FLOW STILL OVER
AREA NW KANSAS ZONES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE HARD FREEZE NUMBERS. REST
OF FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM MDT MON OCT 27 2014
UPPER FLOW WILL BE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SUBSIDENCE WILL PRODUCE
DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FA THROUGH TUESDAY. POPS FOR TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY WILL BE NIL.
RADAR RETURNS ACROSS THE FA TODAY HAVE BEEN VERY LIGHT WITH METARS
REPORTING HIGH CLOUD BASES AND NO PRECIPITATION. THE HRRR SHOWS A
BAND OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER AN AREA IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES
THIS EVENING SO WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SPRINKLES THERE.
THIS IS AN AREA WHERE THERE IS FRONTOGENESIS BUT MOISTURE IS LIMITED.
THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE IF THERE WILL BE A HARD FREEZE TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL DECREASE AND BECOME LIGHT FROM THE WEST ALONG WITH
CLEARING. MOST OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE GIVES LOW TEMPERATURES AROUND
30 IN EASTERN COLORADO WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
REST OF THE FA. THERE IS A LEAST ONE GUIDANCE THAT SHOWS
TEMPERATURES AROUND 29 DEGREES IN EASTERN COLORADO AND WITH THE MET
SHOWING 21 DEGREES FOR LIC, CANNOT RULE OUT A HARD FREEZE IN WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN COLORADO ZONES. PLAN TO UPGRADE THE FREEZE
WATCH TO A WARNING IN EASTERN COLORADO AND THEN GO WITH A FROST
ADVISORY ACROSS THE REST OF THE FA. SEE UPDATED HIGHLIGHTS BELOW.
MAX TEMPERATURES TUESDAY SHOULD WARM TO THE LOWER 60S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM MDT MON OCT 27 2014
FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...QUIET WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE WEEK BEFORE THE NEXT WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH.
MAIN CONCERNS AS IT STANDS RIGHT NOW IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
WINDS ON SATURDAY.
BEGINNING WITH TUESDAY NIGHT...COLD LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
ONCE AGAIN. FOR THIS NIGHT...MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE FROST ONCE
AGAIN BUT LOCATIONS AROUND MCCOOK...OBERLIN AND NORTON MAY
APPROACH FREEZE WARNING CRITERIA...28 DEGREES OR LESS. WITH THE
CURRENT FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES OUT...WILL NOT ISSUE ADDITIONAL
HAZARD HEADLINES BUT THEY MAY BE NEEDED FROM TONIGHTS SHIFT OR
TOMORROWS DAY SHIFT.
FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
TRANSLATES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...LEAVING THE REGION PRECIPITATION-
FREE. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES OVER THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES INTO
THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY...FORCING A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
THROUGH. THIS WILL LEAD TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY.
WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S BEFORE
COOLING OFF THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOW DEWPOINTS SHOULD REMAIN FOR
LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM MCCOOK NEBRASKA TO TRIBUNE
KANSAS...RESULTING IN RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE 15-20 PERCENT RANGE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS ARE FORECAST SO CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS. THE
ONLY QUESTION THAT REMAINS IS HOW ACTIVE WILL WE BE? MODELS ARE
INDICATING A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES
AND EJECTING OVER THE PLAINS BUT DISAGREE ON TIMING/MOVEMENT. WE ARE
GETTING INTO THE SEASON WHERE THESE TYPES OF TROUGHS NEED TO BE
MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER DEVELOPMENT. THE CANADIAN
MODEL DEVELOPS A STRONG MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE SATURDAY OVER NORTHERN
NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA BEFORE HEADING INTO NORTH DAKOTA. THE GFS
INDICATES A SECOND...STRONGER LOBE OF ENERGY MOVING ACROSS OUR
REGION WITH POTENTIAL FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION ON
THE BACK SIDE. THESE TWO SOLUTIONS RAISE THE ALERT FLAG ON A
POTENTIAL SECOND SNOW OF THE YEAR. GLANCING AT THE TEMPERATURES...IT
APPEARS TOO WARM FOR SNOW AT THIS TIME. THE EUROPEAN MODEL INDICATES
A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS WELL...BUT WELL TO THE NORTH...
BEGINNING IN COLORADO/WYOMING BEFORE MOVING NORTH TOWARDS CANADA.
NEEDLESS TO SAY...THIS SYSTEM NEEDS TO BE MONITORED BUT FORECAST
GUIDANCE VARIANCE IS TOO GREAT TO MAKE ANY DEFINITIVE PREDICTIONS ON
WHETHER A LARGER SYSTEM IMPACTS THE TRI-STATE AREA.
ONE THING ALL GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
WINDS SATURDAY. WITH A DEEP LEE TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE AND A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT...A RESULTANT STRENGTHENING
OF THE WIND FIELD IS GUARANTEED. THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS ARE
MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE WINDS AND SHOW POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
GUSTS...POSSIBLY 45-55 MPH. WIND FIELDS AT 1 KM AND 700 MB INDICATE
THERE COULD BE SOME GUSTS EVEN STRONGER BUT WAS NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH
TO PLACE MENTION OF THIS IN PRODUCTS YET.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1047 PM MDT MON OCT 27 2014
VFR CONDITIONS FOR BOTH TAF SITES. SKC BEFORE 13Z-14Z TUESDAY AND
AFT 00Z WEDNESDAY...OTHERWISE SCT100-150. WINDS WNW 5-10KTS
BECOMING WSW AROUND 5 KTS BY 00Z WEDNESDAY.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM MDT /11 AM CDT/ TUESDAY FOR
KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
CO...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM MDT TUESDAY FOR COZ090>092.
NE...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM MDT /11 AM CDT/ TUESDAY FOR
NEZ079>081.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...JN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
355 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014
AT 330 AM...RAIN CONTINUED TO PUSH NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
ARROWHEAD REGION BUT THE OVERALL TREND HAS BEEN TO DIMINISH IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. MUCH OF THE REGION WAS NOW IN A DRY SLOT
WRAPPING INTO THE DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WERE
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S.
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE DEVELOPING
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...WHICH IS CURRENTLY STILL IN
TRANSITION FROM HAVING THE TWO UPPER LEVEL LOWS PHASE INTO ONE.
RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS
THE DAY WEARS ON...STARTING IN NORTH CENTRAL MN AND THEN SPREADING
SOUTH AND EASTWARD THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE CWA. THE 4 KM NMM WRF
SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY AS WELL AS THE HRRR ALL SUPPORT THIS
SCENARIO. WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH TODAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT A POSSIBLE MIX IN THE FAR
NORTH FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
CWA INTO TONIGHT. NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION
BUT COULD SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION ON GRASSY AREAS NORTH.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE TONIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY
ON WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER DEVELOPING
ON WEDNESDAY BUT ALSO THINK THE LOW CLOUDS WILL BE FAIRLY
PERSISTENT AND WIDESPREAD.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014
A SUBTLE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND
TUESDAY EVENING...WHILE A SHORTWAVE AND LOW WILL PASS JUST TO THE
WEST AND SOUTH OF THE NORTHLAND. THIS SHORTWAVE AND TROUGH COULD
BRING LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE FAR SW FORECAST AREA.
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY WITH A
LARGE SURFACE HIGH FOLLOWING IN ITS WAKE. THE COOL NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL RESULT IN CLOUDY WEATHER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING WITH
CHANCES OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS NEAR THE
GOGEBIC RANGE COULD RESULT IN UP TO A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOWFALL.
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHLAND FRIDAY. HALLOWEEN
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE ONE OF THE COLDEST DAYS THIS FALL SO FAR...BUT
IT SHOULD BE SUNNY WITH LIGHT WINDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 30S OVER THE NORTH TO NEAR 40 DEGREES OVER THE SOUTH.
THERE WILL BE A WARMING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING SURFACE HIGH AND A MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IN THE WESTERN UNITED STATES SHIFTS IN THE CENTRAL PART
OF THE COUNTRY. THERE ARE LOW CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1221 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUED TO CAUSE AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OVER PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHLAND AND THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE
LOW LIFTS TOWARD EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z TUESDAY. IFR/MVFR
CEILINGS WERE BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS LATE THIS EVENING AND WE
EXPECT THOSE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. THERE MAY BE A
PERIOD WHERE CONDITIONS IMPROVE...BUT AS THE WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS
STRENGTHEN...MORE MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL OCCUR. WE EXPECT MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS FOR ALL TAF SITES TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT.
COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOVING IN TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. A
MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN OR ALL SNOW OCCUR OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA
LATER TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY EVENING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 44 33 41 33 / 70 60 10 10
INL 41 30 38 30 / 70 70 10 10
BRD 44 33 44 33 / 40 20 0 10
HYR 48 35 45 32 / 60 50 10 10
ASX 49 37 44 33 / 70 60 10 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 AM CDT
WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ121-145>148.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR LSZ143-144.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...MELDE/GROCHOCINSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS WILMINGTON NC
444 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS INTO EARLY
THURSDAY...ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. A SECOND AND
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING
THE FIRST TRULY COLD AIR OF THE SEASON FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
ILM CWA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE COASTAL COUNTIES FROM CAPE FEAR
NORTHWARD...REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 9 AM. LATEST SFC OBS TRENDS
LATEST IR 11-3.9 MICRON CHANNEL SATELLITE IMAGERY TRENDS...AND
THE LATEST HRRR MODEL PROJECTIONS...ALL INDICATE THE CURRENT DENSE
FOG ACROSS THE FA CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND SHOULD BE
MORE WIDESPREAD PRIOR TO DAYBREAK TUESDAY. THE DENSE FOG IS QUITE
SHALLOW IN THE VERTICAL AND SHOULD ALL DISSIPATE BY 1300Z.
A FULL DAYS WORTH OF INSOLATION IS IN STORE FOR THE FA AS THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS PUSHES OFF THE CAROLINA COASTS TODAY. WITH 500MB
HEIGHTS PROGGED IN THE 580S AND CORRESPONDING 1K-5H THICKNESSES IN
THE 570S...WIDESPREAD 80S FOR HIGHS TODAY IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. A SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR BY MIDDAY WITH SOME
INLAND PENETRATION THIS AFTN...THUS LIMITING THE 80 DEGREE HIGHS
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL BE
A DIFFERENT STORY WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT SW WINDS AND MIXING IN
THE LOW LEVELS LIMITED...MAX TEMPS COULD APPROACH RECORD HIGHS FOR
TODAY.
FLORENCE RECORD IS 86 SET IN 1991.
NORTH MYRTLE BEACH RECORD IS 83 SET IN 1991...COULD BE REACHED IF
THE SEA BREEZE IS DELAYED.
WILMINGTON RECORD IS 87 SET IN 1984...WILL LIKELY FALL SHORT.
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS PROGGED TO MOVE FURTHER EAST AND OFFSHORE
FROM THE CAROLINA COASTS TONIGHT...ALLOWING AN INCREASING SW
WINDS TO SET UP ALOFT. MODELS HINT AT A 25 TO 30 KT LOW LEVEL JET
TO SET UP ACROSS THE FA AFTER MIDNIGHT. NAMBUFR HOURLY SOUNDINGS
ILLUSTRATE THIS LOW LEVEL JET AND ALSO THE LIMITED MOISTURE FROM
THE SFC UP TO THIS LOW LEVEL JET HEIGHT. AS A RESULT...SFC FOG IF
ANY WILL BE PATCHY AND AT A MINIMUM. HOWEVER...A LOW STRATUS CLOUD
DECK REMAINS POSSIBLE AND THUS WILL NOT GO COMPLETELY CLEAR FOR
SKY CONDITIONS. WILL LIKELY SEE CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOP ALONG AND
OVER THE GULF STREAM LATE TONIGHT...WITH ANY ISOLATED NOCTURNAL
SHRA REMAINING OFFSHORE. FOR TONIGHT...KEPT MINS CLOSER TO THE
HIGHER END OF THE AVBL MODEL MOS GUIDANCE...AND EVEN A FEW DEGREES
HIER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST DUE TO ACTIVE ONSHORE SSW-SW WINDS
HAVING CROSSED SSTS STILL IN THE 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...ONE LAST WARM DAY WEDNESDAY BEFORE A MAJOR
PATTERN SHIFT OCCURS ACROSS THE EAST. HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL
ONCE AGAIN COMBINE WITH RAISED THICKNESSES BENEATH AN UPPER RIDGE TO
DRIVE WARM ADVECTION AND CAUSE MAX TEMPS TO SOAR INTO THE 80S.
RECORD HIGHS WILL BE APPROACHED...ESPECIALLY INLAND SINCE COOLER
OCEAN TEMPS WILL KEEP HIGHS AT THE COAST LOWER...BUT A WARM DAY
EVERYWHERE IS EXPECTED. THIS WILL BE THE LAST OF THE WARMTH FOR
SOME TIME HOWEVER.
COLD FRONT RACES EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CROSSING OFFSHORE BY
THURSDAY MORNING. THIS IS PUSHED BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND
ALTHOUGH THE FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY AND PWATS RISE ONLY
MARGINALLY...SOME QPF IS EXPECTED WITHIN SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT.
WHILE THE RAIN IS NEEDED LOCALLY...THE FORECAST LOW QPF WILL BE ONLY
MARGINALLY BENEFICIAL. STILL...THE FRONT SIGNALS A SIGNIFICANT
AIR-MASS CHANGE AND TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES COOLER
THAN THE HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL STALL JUST OFFSHORE AS
A SECOND SHORTWAVE DIVES INTO THE DEVELOPING FULL-LATITUDE
TROUGH...AND THIS WILL KEEP AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH
MUCH OF THURSDAY...PRIMARILY NEAR THE COAST. IT WILL NOT BE A WASH
OUT BY ANY STRETCH...BUT SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED.
MINS WED NIGHT AHEAD OF/ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL BE IN THE MID
50S...FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND
THE FRONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL EXIST ON
HALLOWEEN...BUT THE REAL STORY OF THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE FIRST
TRULY COLD AIR OF THE SEASON.
LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST WILL REASSERT ITSELF AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE ON
FRIDAY IS QUITE POTENT...AND ALTHOUGH IT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK JUST
NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA...ENOUGH FORCING ALOFT COMBINED WITH SOME
SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT BENEATH IT MAY CREATE SOME
SHOWERS FOR HALLOWEEN NIGHT. COLUMN BECOMES INCREASINGLY SATURATED
FRIDAY EVE AND OVERNIGHT...BUT MOISTURE IS CONFINED BELOW 600MB AND
PWATS STAY RATHER LOW. EXPECT MORE CLOUDS THAN SHOWERS...BUT CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME LIGHT QPF FOR HALLOWEEN FESTIVITIES.
MORE IMPRESSIVELY HOWEVER...WILL BE THE COLD ADVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS BEHIND THIS FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN BEHIND THIS FEATURE BRINGS COLD AIR WITH IT...AS
EVIDENCED BY 925MB TEMPS DROPPING 8-10C DURING EARLY SATURDAY.
THIS COMBINED WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL DROP TEMPS TO NEAR
JANUARY-LEVELS...WITH HIGHS AND LOWS EXPECTED TO BE 10+ DEGREES
BELOW CLIMO...THE FIRST COLD OUTBREAK OF THE YEAR. LOWS SUNDAY
MORNING ARE FORECAST TO BE THE COLDEST OF THE STRETCH...WHEN MANY
LOCATIONS WITHIN THE CWA SHOULD DROP BELOW 40 DEGREES...ALTHOUGH
MONDAY MORNING MAY BE EQUALLY COLD AS RADIATIONAL COOLING BECOMES
MORE SIGNIFICANT THANKS TO LIGHTER WINDS. SOIL TEMPERATURES ARE
STILL QUITE WARM...AND THE WINDS SUNDAY MORNING SHOULD PRECLUDE
ANY FROST LOCALLY. HOWEVER...AS WINDS EASE AND SOIL TEMPS DROP
WITH THE UPCOMING COLD AIR...FROST IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY
MONDAY MORNING. HIGHS FOR THE WKND WILL STRUGGLE TO EVEN REACH 60.
ON MONDAY THE CORE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE...SO
WHILE TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE BEGINNING OF
NOVEMBER...THEY WILL WARM SEVERAL DEGREES FROM WHAT IS ANTICIPATED
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS HAVE ALLOWED PATCHY TO
AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE CWA...PRIMARILY AT THE SOUTHERN
COASTAL TERMINALS. VSBYS ACROSS THE ILM SC TERMINALS HAVE DROPPED
TO DENSE FOG AND EXPECT THAT TO REMAIN THE CASE FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE PRE-DAWN TUE HOURS. LOOKING AT DENSE FOG TO FINALLY
OVERTAKE KLBT PRIOR TO DAYBREAK TUE...WITH KILM POSSIBLY TO REMAIN
DENSE FOG FREE. LATEST HRRR MODEL ILLUSTRATES ALL TERMINALS TO
EXPERIENCE VSBY AT OR BELOW 1/2 MILE EARLY THIS AM...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF KILM. WILL FOLLOW THE HRRR OUTPUT THIS AM GIVEN ITS
OVERALL PERFORMANCE WITH IDENTIFYING THE FOG DEVELOPMENT AND ITS
PROGRESSION FROM LAST EVENING. THE FG/BR SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY
BETWEEN 12Z AND 1330Z...WITH VFR PREVAILING AT ALL TERMINALS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. WITH THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHING OFFSHORE...CALM WINDS EARLY AM WILL BECOME SW AROUND 5 KT.
EXPECT THE DIURNALLY INDUCED SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP WITH WINDS
BACKING TO SSE-SSW AOB 10 KT AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS FOR THIS
AFTN AND EARLY EVENING.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
CHANCE OF EARLY MORNING IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WED AM. SHOWERS/MVFR
POSSIBLE LATE WED/EARLY THU AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM TUESDAY...CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH TO PUSH FURTHER EAST
AND OFFSHORE FROM THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE SFC
PRESSURE PATTERN AND RELAXED GRADIENT WILL YIELD A SSW-SW WIND
AROUND 10 KT TODAY...AND MAINLY SW INCREASING TO 10-15 KT WITH FEW
WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT TONIGHT. FOR THE NEAR SHORE WATERS...THE SEA
BREEZE THIS AFTN WILL BACK WINDS TO SSE-S AT 10 TO POSSIBLY 15 KT
THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVENING. THE OVERALL INCREASING SYNOPTIC WINDS
AND GUSTS TONIGHT WILL BE THE RESULT OF A LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY
JET AND A SLIGHTLY TIGHTENED SFC PG. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE
1 TO 2 FT TODAY...AND BUILD TO NEAR OR AROUND 3 FT TONIGHT.
THIS IS IN LINE WITH WAVEWATCH3 AND LOCALLY PRODUCED SWAN NUMBERS.
DOMINANT PERIODS WILL BE 8 TO 9 SECONDS TODAY WITH AN EASTERLY
GROUND SWELL PREVAILING...AND DROP TO 3 TO 5 SECONDS NEARSHORE THIS
AFTN...AND FOR ALL WATERS TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING SW WIND
DRIVEN WAVES.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE DRIVES RETURN FLOW
ACROSS THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SW WINDS OF 10-15 KTS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE WATERS CAUSING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW...AND THEN
NORTH...BY THURSDAY MORNING WITH SPEEDS STILL AT 10-15 KTS. THESE
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST ON THURSDAY...BUT INCREASE SLOWLY
LATE IN THE PERIOD. SEAS WED/THU WILL BE PRIMARILY WIND-WAVE
DRIVEN...WITH A SW WIND CHOP PRODUCING 2-3 FT SEAS WEDNESDAY.
AFTER A BRIEF DECREASE IN WAVE AMPLITUDES BEHIND THE FRONT...A
NORTHERLY WIND WAVE WILL AMPLIFY DURING THURSDAY...CAUSING SEAS TO
RISE TO 2-4 FT LATE.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...N/NW WINDS FRIDAY WILL BE CONSISTENTLY 10-15
KTS...AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN FROM THE NORTH AND A COLD FRONT
STALLS OFFSHORE. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND THIS WILL PRODUCE VERY GUSTY WINDS BEHIND IT...AND N/NW
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB ABOVE 25 KTS MUCH OF SATURDAY...AND A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS LIKELY. SEAS FRIDAY WILL BE 2-4 FT...WITH
THE HIGHEST WAVES CONFINED NEAR THE 20NM BOUNDARY...BUT WILL RISE
SIGNIFICANTLY ON SATURDAY TO 4-6 FT.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ017-023-
024-032-033-039-053>056.
NC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ087-096-
099-109-110.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
427 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS INTO EARLY
THURSDAY...ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. A SECOND AND
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING
THE FIRST TRULY COLD AIR OF THE SEASON FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
ILM CWA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE COASTAL COUNTIES FROM CAPE FEAR
NORTHWARD...REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 9 AM. LATEST SFC OBS TRENDS
...LATEST IR 11-3.9 MICRON CHANNEL SATELLITE IMAGERY TRENDS...AND
THE LATEST HRRR MODEL PROJECTIONS...ALL INDICATE THE CURRENT
DENSE FOG ACROSS THE FA CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
SHOULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD PRIOR TO DAYBREAK TUESDAY. THE DENSE FOG
IS QUITE SHALLOW IN THE VERTICAL AND SHOULD ALL DISSIPATE BY
1300Z.
A FULL DAYS WORTH OF INSOLATION IS IN STORE FOR THE FA AS THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS PUSHES OFF THE CAROLINA COASTS TODAY. WITH 500MB
HEIGHTS PROGGED IN THE 580S AND CORRESPONDING 1K-5H THICKNESSES IN
THE 570S...WIDESPREAD 80S FOR HIGHS TODAY IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. A SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR BY MIDDAY WITH SOME
INLAND PENETRATION THIS AFTN...THUS LIMITING THE 80 DEGREE HIGHS
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL BE A
DIFFERENT STORY WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT SW WINDS AND MIXING IN THE
LOW LEVELS LIMITED...MAX TEMPS COULD APPROACH RECORD HIGHS FOR
TODAY.
FLORENCE RECORD IS 86 SET IN 1991.
NORTH MYRTLE BEACH RECORD IS 83 SET IN 1991...COULD BE REACHED IF
THE SEA BREEZE IS DELAYED.
WILMINGTON RECORD IS 87 SET IN 1984...WILL LIKELY FALL SHORT.
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS TO MOVE FURTHER EAST AND OFFSHORE FROM THE
CAROLINA COASTS...ALLOWING AN INCREASING SW WINDS TO SET UP ALOFT.
MODELS HINT AT A 25 TO 30 KT LOW LEVEL JET TO SET UP ACROSS THE
FA AFTER MIDNIGHT. NAMBUFR HOURLY SOUNDINGS ILLUSTRATE THIS LOW
LEVEL JET AND ALSO THE LIMITED MOISTURE FROM THE SFC UP TO THIS
LOW LEVEL JET HEIGHT. AS A RESULT...SFC FOG IF ANY WILL BE PATCHY
AND AT A MINIMUM. HOWEVER...A LOW STRATUS CLOUD DECK REMAINS
POSSIBLE AND THUS WILL NOT GO COMPLETELY CLEAR FOR SKY CONDITIONS.
WILL LIKELY SEE CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOP ALONG AND OVER THE GULF
STREAM LATE TONIGHT...WITH ANY ISOLATED NOCTURNAL SHRA REMAINING
OFFSHORE. FOR TONIGHT...KEPT MINS CLOSER TO THE HIGHER END OF THE
AVBL MODEL MOS GUIDANCE...AND EVEN A FEW DEGREES HIER ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST DUE TO ACTIVE ONSHORE SSW-SW WINDS HAVING CROSSED
SSTS STILL IN THE 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...ONE LAST WARM DAY WEDNESDAY BEFORE A MAJOR
PATTERN SHIFT OCCURS ACROSS THE EAST. HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL
ONCE AGAIN COMBINE WITH RAISED THICKNESSES BENEATH AN UPPER RIDGE TO
DRIVE WARM ADVECTION AND CAUSE MAX TEMPS TO SOAR INTO THE 80S.
RECORD HIGHS WILL BE APPROACHED...ESPECIALLY INLAND SINCE COOLER
OCEAN TEMPS WILL KEEP HIGHS AT THE COAST LOWER...BUT A WARM DAY
EVERYWHERE IS EXPECTED. THIS WILL BE THE LAST OF THE WARMTH FOR SOME
TIME HOWEVER.
COLD FRONT RACES EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CROSSING OFFSHORE BY
THURSDAY MORNING. THIS IS PUSHED BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND
ALTHOUGH THE FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY AND PWATS RISE ONLY
MARGINALLY...SOME QPF IS EXPECTED WITHIN SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT.
WHILE THE RAIN IS NEEDED LOCALLY...THE FORECAST LOW QPF WILL BE ONLY
MARGINALLY BENEFICIAL. STILL...THE FRONT SIGNALS A SIGNIFICANT
AIR-MASS CHANGE AND TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES COOLER
THAN THE HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL STALL JUST OFFSHORE AS
A SECOND SHORTWAVE DIVES INTO THE DEVELOPING FULL-LATITUDE
TROUGH...AND THIS WILL KEEP AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH
MUCH OF THURSDAY...PRIMARILY NEAR THE COAST. IT WILL NOT BE A WASH
OUT BY ANY STRETCH...BUT SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED.
MINS WED NIGHT AHEAD OF/ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL BE IN THE MID
50S...FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND
THE FRONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL EXIST ON
HALLOWEEN...BUT THE REAL STORY OF THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE FIRST
TRULY COLD AIR OF THE SEASON.
LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST WILL REASSERT ITSELF AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE ON
FRIDAY IS QUITE POTENT...AND ALTHOUGH IT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK JUST
NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA...ENOUGH FORCING ALOFT COMBINED WITH SOME
SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT BENEATH IT MAY CREATE SOME
SHOWERS FOR HALLOWEEN NIGHT. COLUMN BECOMES INCREASINGLY SATURATED
FRIDAY EVE AND OVERNIGHT...BUT MOISTURE IS CONFINED BELOW 600MB AND
PWATS STAY RATHER LOW. EXPECT MORE CLOUDS THAN SHOWERS...BUT CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME LIGHT QPF FOR HALLOWEEN FESTIVITIES.
MORE IMPRESSIVELY HOWEVER...WILL BE THE COLD ADVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS BEHIND THIS FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN BEHIND THIS FEATURE BRINGS COLD AIR WITH IT...AS
EVIDENCED BY 925MB TEMPS DROPPING 8-10C DURING EARLY SATURDAY.
THIS COMBINED WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL DROP TEMPS TO NEAR
JANUARY-LEVELS...WITH HIGHS AND LOWS EXPECTED TO BE 10+ DEGREES
BELOW CLIMO...THE FIRST COLD OUTBREAK OF THE YEAR. LOWS SUNDAY
MORNING ARE FORECAST TO BE THE COLDEST OF THE STRETCH...WHEN MANY
LOCATIONS WITHIN THE CWA SHOULD DROP BELOW 40 DEGREES...ALTHOUGH
MONDAY MORNING MAY BE EQUALLY COLD AS RADIATIONAL COOLING BECOMES
MORE SIGNIFICANT THANKS TO LIGHTER WINDS. SOIL TEMPERATURES ARE
STILL QUITE WARM...AND THE WINDS SUNDAY MORNING SHOULD PRECLUDE
ANY FROST LOCALLY. HOWEVER...AS WINDS EASE AND SOIL TEMPS DROP
WITH THE UPCOMING COLD AIR...FROST IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY
MONDAY MORNING. HIGHS FOR THE WKND WILL STRUGGLE TO EVEN REACH 60.
ON MONDAY THE CORE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE...SO
WHILE TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE BEGINNING OF
NOVEMBER...THEY WILL WARM SEVERAL DEGREES FROM WHAT IS ANTICIPATED
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS HAVE ALLOWED PATCHY TO
AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE CWA...PRIMARILY AT THE SOUTHERN
COASTAL TERMINALS. VSBYS ACROSS THE ILM SC TERMINALS HAVE DROPPED
TO DENSE FOG AND EXPECT THAT TO REMAIN THE CASE FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE PRE-DAWN TUE HOURS. LOOKING AT DENSE FOG TO FINALLY
OVERTAKE KLBT PRIOR TO DAYBREAK TUE...WITH KILM POSSIBLY TO REMAIN
DENSE FOG FREE. LATEST HRRR MODEL ILLUSTRATES ALL TERMINALS TO
EXPERIENCE VSBY AT OR BELOW 1/2 MILE EARLY THIS AM...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF KILM. WILL FOLLOW THE HRRR OUTPUT THIS AM GIVEN ITS
OVERALL PERFORMANCE WITH IDENTIFYING THE FOG DEVELOPMENT AND ITS
PROGRESSION FROM LAST EVENING. THE FG/BR SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY
BETWEEN 12Z AND 1330Z...WITH VFR PREVAILING AT ALL TERMINALS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. WITH THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHING OFFSHORE...CALM WINDS EARLY AM WILL BECOME SW AROUND 5 KT.
EXPECT THE DIURNALLY INDUCED SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP WITH WINDS
BACKING TO SSE-SSW AOB 10 KT AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS FOR THIS
AFTN AND EARLY EVENING.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
CHANCE OF EARLY MORNING IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WED AM. SHOWERS/MVFR
POSSIBLE LATE WED/EARLY THU AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10:45 PM MONDAY...LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE WITH
SEAS OF UNDER 2 FT PREVAIL OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE THIS
EVENING. EXPECT THESE BENIGN CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. NO
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:
HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA IS MOVING OUT TO SEA
THIS AFTERNOON. EASTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE HIGH THIS EVENING WILL
COME AROUND TO THE SOUTH LATE...BUT WITH LITTLE INCREASE IN WIND
SPEEDS. THE STRONGEST WINDS OF THE NEXT 12 HOURS ARE PROBABLY
OCCURRING NOW WITH THE SEABREEZE CIRCULATION ENHANCING THE
SYNOPTIC FLOW. COMBINED SEAS ARE ONLY 1-2 FEET IN A COMBINATION OF
A TINY WIND CHOP AND TWO SMALL 10 SECOND SWELL COMPONENTS.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE DRIVES RETURN FLOW
ACROSS THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SW WINDS OF 10-15 KTS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE WATERS CAUSING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW...AND THEN
NORTH...BY THURSDAY MORNING WITH SPEEDS STILL AT 10-15 KTS. THESE
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST ON THURSDAY...BUT INCREASE SLOWLY
LATE IN THE PERIOD. SEAS WED/THU WILL BE PRIMARILY WIND-WAVE
DRIVEN...WITH A SW WIND CHOP PRODUCING 2-3 FT SEAS WEDNESDAY.
AFTER A BRIEF DECREASE IN WAVE AMPLITUDES BEHIND THE FRONT...A
NORTHERLY WIND WAVE WILL AMPLIFY DURING THURSDAY...CAUSING SEAS TO
RISE TO 2-4 FT LATE.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...N/NW WINDS FRIDAY WILL BE CONSISTENTLY 10-15
KTS...AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN FROM THE NORTH AND A COLD FRONT
STALLS OFFSHORE. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND THIS WILL PRODUCE VERY GUSTY WINDS BEHIND IT...AND N/NW
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB ABOVE 25 KTS MUCH OF SATURDAY...AND A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS LIKELY. SEAS FRIDAY WILL BE 2-4 FT...WITH
THE HIGHEST WAVES CONFINED NEAR THE 20NM BOUNDARY...BUT WILL RISE
SIGNIFICANTLY ON SATURDAY TO 4-6 FT.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ017-023-
024-032-033-039-053>056.
NC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ087-096-
099-109-110.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
346 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS INTO EARLY
THURSDAY...ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. A SECOND AND
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING
THE FIRST TRULY COLD AIR OF THE SEASON FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 110 AM TUESDAY...ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE ILM CWA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE COASTAL
COUNTIES FROM CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD. LATEST SFC OBS TRENDS...IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY TRENDS PARTICULARLY THE 11-3.9 MICRON
CHANNEL...AND THE LATEST HRRR MODEL VSBY PROJECTION...ALL INDICATE
THE CURRENT PATCHY DENSE FOG ACROSS THE FA TO BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD DURING THE PRE-DAWN TUESDAY HOURS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION..........................
AS OF 10:45 PM MONDAY...WHILE WE ARE STILL EXPECTING SOME FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT...IT HAS BEEN SLOW TO FORM AND AT THIS POINT
DO NOT EXPECT TO ISSUE ANY ADVISORIES FOR REDUCED VISIBILITIES.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS. OTHERWISE...STILL EXPECTING A
COOL AND DRY OVERNIGHT PERIOD. FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWS:
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WILL STEADILY
PROGRESS EASTWARD AND OFFSHORE TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD OCCUR ABOUT
THE TIME THE SUN SETS. LIGHT WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS AND A DRY
ATMOSPHERE SHOULD ALLOW A STRONG RADIATIONAL INVERSION TO DEVELOP.
DESPITE DEWPOINTS PLUNGING INTO THE 30S ACROSS PORTIONS OF SE
NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON...A SHALLOW LAYER OF FAIRLY
IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE HAS HUNG OUT ACROSS COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA
THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN HERE AT 3 PM DEWPOINTS ARE AROUND 60 IN THE
GEORGETOWN VICINITY...WITH MID TO UPPER 50S ALONG THE GRAND STRAND
BEACHES. THESE HIGHER DEWPOINTS SHOULD ADVECT NORTHWESTWARD THIS
EVENING IN THE VEERING FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING HIGH. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS MOISTURE LAYER SHOULD ONLY BE ABOUT 500-700
FEET THICK ACROSS THE WILMINGTON AREA OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD
INCREASE TO AROUND 1200-1500 FT DEPTH ACROSS FLORENCE AND THE PEE
DEE REGION. THIS IS PROBABLY THICK ENOUGH TO DEVELOP FOG AND SOME
LOW STRATUS INLAND LATE TONIGHT. USING THE NAM 975 MB RH GRID AS A
GUIDE...I AM FORECASTING THE BEST CHANCES FOR FOG FROM GEORGETOWN
AND MYRTLE BEACH NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS MARION AND FLORENCE INTO
HARTSVILLE AND BENNETTSVILLE OVERNIGHT. DESPITE SIMILAR LOW
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS WILMINGTON AND BURGAW THE VERTICAL
EXTENT OF MOISTURE HERE MAY BE INSUFFICIENT FOR MORE THAN SPOTTY
AND SHALLOW GROUND FOG.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO LOW TEMPERATURE
FORECASTS...STILL ANTICIPATED TO RANGE FROM 50-55...COOLEST FROM
LAKE WACCAMAW TO BURGAW...AND WARMEST ALONG THE SC BEACHES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...ONE LAST WARM DAY WEDNESDAY BEFORE A MAJOR
PATTERN SHIFT OCCURS ACROSS THE EAST. HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL
ONCE AGAIN COMBINE WITH RAISED THICKNESSES BENEATH AN UPPER RIDGE TO
DRIVE WARM ADVECTION AND CAUSE MAX TEMPS TO SOAR INTO THE 80S.
RECORD HIGHS WILL BE APPROACHED...ESPECIALLY INLAND SINCE COOLER
OCEAN TEMPS WILL KEEP HIGHS AT THE COAST LOWER...BUT A WARM DAY
EVERYWHERE IS EXPECTED. THIS WILL BE THE LAST OF THE WARMTH FOR SOME
TIME HOWEVER.
COLD FRONT RACES EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CROSSING OFFSHORE BY
THURSDAY MORNING. THIS IS PUSHED BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND
ALTHOUGH THE FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY AND PWATS RISE ONLY
MARGINALLY...SOME QPF IS EXPECTED WITHIN SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT.
WHILE THE RAIN IS NEEDED LOCALLY...THE FORECAST LOW QPF WILL BE ONLY
MARGINALLY BENEFICIAL. STILL...THE FRONT SIGNALS A SIGNIFICANT
AIR-MASS CHANGE AND TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES COOLER
THAN THE HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL STALL JUST OFFSHORE AS
A SECOND SHORTWAVE DIVES INTO THE DEVELOPING FULL-LATITUDE
TROUGH...AND THIS WILL KEEP AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH
MUCH OF THURSDAY...PRIMARILY NEAR THE COAST. IT WILL NOT BE A WASH
OUT BY ANY STRETCH...BUT SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED.
MINS WED NIGHT AHEAD OF/ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL BE IN THE MID
50S...FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND
THE FRONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL EXIST ON
HALLOWEEN...BUT THE REAL STORY OF THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE FIRST
TRULY COLD AIR OF THE SEASON.
LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST WILL REASSERT ITSELF AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE ON
FRIDAY IS QUITE POTENT...AND ALTHOUGH IT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK JUST
NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA...ENOUGH FORCING ALOFT COMBINED WITH SOME
SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT BENEATH IT MAY CREATE SOME
SHOWERS FOR HALLOWEEN NIGHT. COLUMN BECOMES INCREASINGLY SATURATED
FRIDAY EVE AND OVERNIGHT...BUT MOISTURE IS CONFINED BELOW 600MB AND
PWATS STAY RATHER LOW. EXPECT MORE CLOUDS THAN SHOWERS...BUT CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME LIGHT QPF FOR HALLOWEEN FESTIVITIES.
MORE IMPRESSIVELY HOWEVER...WILL BE THE COLD ADVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS BEHIND THIS FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN BEHIND THIS FEATURE BRINGS COLD AIR WITH IT...AS
EVIDENCED BY 925MB TEMPS DROPPING 8-10C DURING EARLY SATURDAY.
THIS COMBINED WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL DROP TEMPS TO NEAR
JANUARY-LEVELS...WITH HIGHS AND LOWS EXPECTED TO BE 10+ DEGREES
BELOW CLIMO...THE FIRST COLD OUTBREAK OF THE YEAR. LOWS SUNDAY
MORNING ARE FORECAST TO BE THE COLDEST OF THE STRETCH...WHEN MANY
LOCATIONS WITHIN THE CWA SHOULD DROP BELOW 40 DEGREES...ALTHOUGH
MONDAY MORNING MAY BE EQUALLY COLD AS RADIATIONAL COOLING BECOMES
MORE SIGNIFICANT THANKS TO LIGHTER WINDS. SOIL TEMPERATURES ARE
STILL QUITE WARM...AND THE WINDS SUNDAY MORNING SHOULD PRECLUDE
ANY FROST LOCALLY. HOWEVER...AS WINDS EASE AND SOIL TEMPS DROP
WITH THE UPCOMING COLD AIR...FROST IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY
MONDAY MORNING. HIGHS FOR THE WKND WILL STRUGGLE TO EVEN REACH 60.
ON MONDAY THE CORE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE...SO
WHILE TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE BEGINNING OF
NOVEMBER...THEY WILL WARM SEVERAL DEGREES FROM WHAT IS ANTICIPATED
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS HAVE ALLOWED PATCHY TO
AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE CWA...PRIMARILY AT THE SOUTHERN
COASTAL TERMINALS. VSBYS ACROSS THE ILM SC TERMINALS HAVE DROPPED
TO DENSE FOG AND EXPECT THAT TO REMAIN THE CASE FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE PRE-DAWN TUE HOURS. LOOKING AT DENSE FOG TO FINALLY
OVERTAKE KLBT PRIOR TO DAYBREAK TUE...WITH KILM POSSIBLY TO REMAIN
DENSE FOG FREE. LATEST HRRR MODEL ILLUSTRATES ALL TERMINALS TO
EXPERIENCE VSBY AT OR BELOW 1/2 MILE EARLY THIS AM...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF KILM. WILL FOLLOW THE HRRR OUTPUT THIS AM GIVEN ITS
OVERALL PERFORMANCE WITH IDENTIFYING THE FOG DEVELOPMENT AND ITS
PROGRESSION FROM LAST EVENING. THE FG/BR SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY
BETWEEN 12Z AND 1330Z...WITH VFR PREVAILING AT ALL TERMINALS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. WITH THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHING OFFSHORE...CALM WINDS EARLY AM WILL BECOME SW AROUND 5 KT.
EXPECT THE DIURNALLY INDUCED SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP WITH WINDS
BACKING TO SSE-SSW AOB 10 KT AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS FOR THIS
AFTN AND EARLY EVENING.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
CHANCE OF EARLY MORNING IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WED AM. SHOWERS/MVFR
POSSIBLE LATE WED/EARLY THU AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10:45 PM MONDAY...LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE WITH
SEAS OF UNDER 2 FT PREVAIL OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE THIS
EVENING. EXPECT THESE BENIGN CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. NO
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:
HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA IS MOVING OUT TO SEA
THIS AFTERNOON. EASTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE HIGH THIS EVENING WILL
COME AROUND TO THE SOUTH LATE...BUT WITH LITTLE INCREASE IN WIND
SPEEDS. THE STRONGEST WINDS OF THE NEXT 12 HOURS ARE PROBABLY
OCCURRING NOW WITH THE SEABREEZE CIRCULATION ENHANCING THE
SYNOPTIC FLOW. COMBINED SEAS ARE ONLY 1-2 FEET IN A COMBINATION OF
A TINY WIND CHOP AND TWO SMALL 10 SECOND SWELL COMPONENTS.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE DRIVES RETURN FLOW
ACROSS THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SW WINDS OF 10-15 KTS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE WATERS CAUSING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW...AND THEN
NORTH...BY THURSDAY MORNING WITH SPEEDS STILL AT 10-15 KTS. THESE
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST ON THURSDAY...BUT INCREASE SLOWLY
LATE IN THE PERIOD. SEAS WED/THU WILL BE PRIMARILY WIND-WAVE
DRIVEN...WITH A SW WIND CHOP PRODUCING 2-3 FT SEAS WEDNESDAY.
AFTER A BRIEF DECREASE IN WAVE AMPLITUDES BEHIND THE FRONT...A
NORTHERLY WIND WAVE WILL AMPLIFY DURING THURSDAY...CAUSING SEAS TO
RISE TO 2-4 FT LATE.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...N/NW WINDS FRIDAY WILL BE CONSISTENTLY 10-15
KTS...AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN FROM THE NORTH AND A COLD FRONT
STALLS OFFSHORE. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND THIS WILL PRODUCE VERY GUSTY WINDS BEHIND IT...AND N/NW
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB ABOVE 25 KTS MUCH OF SATURDAY...AND A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS LIKELY. SEAS FRIDAY WILL BE 2-4 FT...WITH
THE HIGHEST WAVES CONFINED NEAR THE 20NM BOUNDARY...BUT WILL RISE
SIGNIFICANTLY ON SATURDAY TO 4-6 FT.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ017-023-
024-032-033-039-053>056.
NC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ087-096-
099-109-110.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
340 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS INTO EARLY
THURSDAY...ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. A SECOND AND
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING
THE FIRST TRULY COLD AIR OF THE SEASON FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 110 AM TUESDAY...ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE ILM CWA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE COASTAL
COUNTIES FROM CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD. LATEST SFC OBS TRENDS...IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY TRENDS PARTICULARLY THE 11-3.9 MICRON
CHANNEL...AND THE LATEST HRRR MODEL VSBY PROJECTION...ALL INDICATE
THE CURRENT PATCHY DENSE FOG ACROSS THE FA TO BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD DURING THE PRE-DAWN TUESDAY HOURS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION..................................
AS OF 10:45 PM MONDAY...WHILE WE ARE STILL EXPECTING SOME FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT...IT HAS BEEN SLOW TO FORM AND AT THIS POINT
DO NOT EXPECT TO ISSUE ANY ADVISORIES FOR REDUCED VISIBILITIES.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS. OTHERWISE...STILL EXPECTING A
COOL AND DRY OVERNIGHT PERIOD. FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWS:
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WILL STEADILY
PROGRESS EASTWARD AND OFFSHORE TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD OCCUR ABOUT
THE TIME THE SUN SETS. LIGHT WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS AND A DRY
ATMOSPHERE SHOULD ALLOW A STRONG RADIATIONAL INVERSION TO DEVELOP.
DESPITE DEWPOINTS PLUNGING INTO THE 30S ACROSS PORTIONS OF SE
NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON...A SHALLOW LAYER OF FAIRLY
IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE HAS HUNG OUT ACROSS COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA
THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN HERE AT 3 PM DEWPOINTS ARE AROUND 60 IN THE
GEORGETOWN VICINITY...WITH MID TO UPPER 50S ALONG THE GRAND STRAND
BEACHES. THESE HIGHER DEWPOINTS SHOULD ADVECT NORTHWESTWARD THIS
EVENING IN THE VEERING FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING HIGH. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS MOISTURE LAYER SHOULD ONLY BE ABOUT 500-700
FEET THICK ACROSS THE WILMINGTON AREA OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD
INCREASE TO AROUND 1200-1500 FT DEPTH ACROSS FLORENCE AND THE PEE
DEE REGION. THIS IS PROBABLY THICK ENOUGH TO DEVELOP FOG AND SOME
LOW STRATUS INLAND LATE TONIGHT. USING THE NAM 975 MB RH GRID AS A
GUIDE...I AM FORECASTING THE BEST CHANCES FOR FOG FROM GEORGETOWN
AND MYRTLE BEACH NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS MARION AND FLORENCE INTO
HARTSVILLE AND BENNETTSVILLE OVERNIGHT. DESPITE SIMILAR LOW
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS WILMINGTON AND BURGAW THE VERTICAL
EXTENT OF MOISTURE HERE MAY BE INSUFFICIENT FOR MORE THAN SPOTTY
AND SHALLOW GROUND FOG.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO LOW TEMPERATURE
FORECASTS...STILL ANTICIPATED TO RANGE FROM 50-55...COOLEST FROM
LAKE WACCAMAW TO BURGAW...AND WARMEST ALONG THE SC BEACHES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...ONE LAST WARM DAY WEDNESDAY BEFORE A MAJOR
PATTERN SHIFT OCCURS ACROSS THE EAST. HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL
ONCE AGAIN COMBINE WITH RAISED THICKNESSES BENEATH AN UPPER RIDGE TO
DRIVE WARM ADVECTION AND CAUSE MAX TEMPS TO SOAR INTO THE 80S.
RECORD HIGHS WILL BE APPROACHED...ESPECIALLY INLAND SINCE COOLER
OCEAN TEMPS WILL KEEP HIGHS AT THE COAST LOWER...BUT A WARM DAY
EVERYWHERE IS EXPECTED. THIS WILL BE THE LAST OF THE WARMTH FOR SOME
TIME HOWEVER.
COLD FRONT RACES EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CROSSING OFFSHORE BY
THURSDAY MORNING. THIS IS PUSHED BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND
ALTHOUGH THE FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY AND PWATS RISE ONLY
MARGINALLY...SOME QPF IS EXPECTED WITHIN SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT.
WHILE THE RAIN IS NEEDED LOCALLY...THE FORECAST LOW QPF WILL BE ONLY
MARGINALLY BENEFICIAL. STILL...THE FRONT SIGNALS A SIGNIFICANT
AIR-MASS CHANGE AND TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES COOLER
THAN THE HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL STALL JUST OFFSHORE AS
A SECOND SHORTWAVE DIVES INTO THE DEVELOPING FULL-LATITUDE
TROUGH...AND THIS WILL KEEP AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH
MUCH OF THURSDAY...PRIMARILY NEAR THE COAST. IT WILL NOT BE A WASH
OUT BY ANY STRETCH...BUT SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED.
MINS WED NIGHT AHEAD OF/ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL BE IN THE MID
50S...FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND
THE FRONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL EXIST ON
HALLOWEEN...BUT THE REAL STORY OF THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE FIRST
TRULY COLD AIR OF THE SEASON.
LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST WILL REASSERT ITSELF AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE ON
FRIDAY IS QUITE POTENT...AND ALTHOUGH IT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK JUST
NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA...ENOUGH FORCING ALOFT COMBINED WITH SOME
SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT BENEATH IT MAY CREATE SOME
SHOWERS FOR HALLOWEEN NIGHT. COLUMN BECOMES INCREASINGLY SATURATED
FRIDAY EVE AND OVERNIGHT...BUT MOISTURE IS CONFINED BELOW 600MB AND
PWATS STAY RATHER LOW. EXPECT MORE CLOUDS THAN SHOWERS...BUT CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME LIGHT QPF FOR HALLOWEEN FESTIVITIES. MORE IMPRESSIVELY
HOWEVER...WILL BE THE COLD ADVECTION THAT DEVELOPS BEHIND THIS FRONT
FRIDAY NIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THIS FEATURE
BRINGS COLD AIR WITH IT...AS EVIDENCED BY 925MB TEMPS DROPPING 8-10C
DURING EARLY SATURDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL
DROP TEMPS TO NEAR JANUARY-LEVELS...WITH HIGHS AND LOWS EXPECTED TO
BE 10+ DEGREES BELOW CLIMO...THE FIRST COLD OUTBREAK OF THE YEAR.
LOWS SUNDAY MORNING ARE FORECAST TO BE THE COLDEST OF THE
STRETCH...WHEN MANY LOCATIONS WITHIN THE CWA SHOULD DROP BELOW 40
DEGREES. HIGHS FOR THE WKND WILL STRUGGLE TO EVEN REACH 60. ON
MONDAY THE CORE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE...SO WHILE
TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE BEGINNING OF NOVEMBER...THEY
WILL WARM SEVERAL DEGREES FROM WHAT IS ANTICIPATED SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS HAVE ALLOWED PATCHY TO
AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE CWA...PRIMARILY AT THE SOUTHERN
COASTAL TERMINALS. VSBYS ACROSS THE ILM SC TERMINALS HAVE DROPPED
TO DENSE FOG AND EXPECT THAT TO REMAIN THE CASE FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE PRE-DAWN TUE HOURS. LOOKING AT DENSE FOG TO FINALLY
OVERTAKE KLBT PRIOR TO DAYBREAK TUE...WITH KILM POSSIBLY TO REMAIN
DENSE FOG FREE. LATEST HRRR MODEL ILLUSTRATES ALL TERMINALS TO
EXPERIENCE VSBY AT OR BELOW 1/2 MILE EARLY THIS AM...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF KILM. WILL FOLLOW THE HRRR OUTPUT THIS AM GIVEN ITS
OVERALL PERFORMANCE WITH IDENTIFYING THE FOG DEVELOPMENT AND ITS
PROGRESSION FROM LAST EVENING. THE FG/BR SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY
BETWEEN 12Z AND 1330Z...WITH VFR PREVAILING AT ALL TERMINALS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. WITH THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHING OFFSHORE...CALM WINDS EARLY AM WILL BECOME SW AROUND 5 KT.
EXPECT THE DIURNALLY INDUCED SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP WITH WINDS
BACKING TO SSE-SSW AOB 10 KT AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS FOR THIS
AFTN AND EARLY EVENING.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
CHANCE OF EARLY MORNING IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WED AM. SHOWERS/MVFR
POSSIBLE LATE WED/EARLY THU AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10:45 PM MONDAY...LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE WITH
SEAS OF UNDER 2 FT PREVAIL OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE THIS
EVENING. EXPECT THESE BENIGN CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. NO
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:
HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA IS MOVING OUT TO SEA
THIS AFTERNOON. EASTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE HIGH THIS EVENING WILL
COME AROUND TO THE SOUTH LATE...BUT WITH LITTLE INCREASE IN WIND
SPEEDS. THE STRONGEST WINDS OF THE NEXT 12 HOURS ARE PROBABLY
OCCURRING NOW WITH THE SEABREEZE CIRCULATION ENHANCING THE
SYNOPTIC FLOW. COMBINED SEAS ARE ONLY 1-2 FEET IN A COMBINATION OF
A TINY WIND CHOP AND TWO SMALL 10 SECOND SWELL COMPONENTS.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE DRIVES RETURN FLOW
ACROSS THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SW WINDS OF 10-15 KTS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE WATERS CAUSING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW...AND THEN
NORTH...BY THURSDAY MORNING WITH SPEEDS STILL AT 10-15 KTS. THESE
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST ON THURSDAY...BUT INCREASE SLOWLY
LATE IN THE PERIOD. SEAS WED/THU WILL BE PRIMARILY WIND-WAVE
DRIVEN...WITH A SW WIND CHOP PRODUCING 2-3 FT SEAS WEDNESDAY.
AFTER A BRIEF DECREASE IN WAVE AMPLITUDES BEHIND THE FRONT...A
NORTHERLY WIND WAVE WILL AMPLIFY DURING THURSDAY...CAUSING SEAS TO
RISE TO 2-4 FT LATE.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...N/NW WINDS FRIDAY WILL BE CONSISTENTLY 10-15
KTS...AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN FROM THE NORTH AND A COLD FRONT
STALLS OFFSHORE. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND THIS WILL PRODUCE VERY GUSTY WINDS BEHIND IT...AND N/NW
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB ABOVE 25 KTS MUCH OF SATURDAY...AND A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS LIKELY. SEAS FRIDAY WILL BE 2-4 FT...WITH
THE HIGHEST WAVES CONFINED NEAR THE 20NM BOUNDARY...BUT WILL RISE
SIGNIFICANTLY ON SATURDAY TO 4-6 FT.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ017-023-
024-032-033-039-053>056.
NC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ087-096-
099-109-110.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...DCH/REK
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DCH/BJR
MARINE...DCH/REK/JDW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
215 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
FAIR AND MILD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO MID-WEEK BEFORE A COLD
FRONT BRINGS COOLING AND A FEW SHOWERS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY. A SECONDARY AND STRONGER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN TO WELL BELOW NORMAL
THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 110 AM TUESDAY...ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE ILM CWA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE COASTAL
COUNTIES FROM CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD. LATEST SFC OBS TRENDS...IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY TRENDS PARTICULARLY THE 11-3.9 MICRON
CHANNEL...AND THE LATEST HRRR MODEL VSBY PROJECTION...ALL INDICATE
THE CURRENT PATCHY DENSE FOG ACROSS THE FA TO BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD DURING THE PRE-DAWN TUESDAY HOURS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.............................................
AS OF 10:45 PM MONDAY...WHILE WE ARE STILL EXPECTING SOME FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT...IT HAS BEEN SLOW TO FORM AND AT THIS POINT
DO NOT EXPECT TO ISSUE ANY ADVISORIES FOR REDUCED VISIBILITIES.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS. OTHERWISE...STILL EXPECTING A
COOL AND DRY OVERNIGHT PERIOD. FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWS:
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WILL STEADILY
PROGRESS EASTWARD AND OFFSHORE TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD OCCUR ABOUT
THE TIME THE SUN SETS. LIGHT WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS AND A DRY
ATMOSPHERE SHOULD ALLOW A STRONG RADIATIONAL INVERSION TO DEVELOP.
DESPITE DEWPOINTS PLUNGING INTO THE 30S ACROSS PORTIONS OF SE
NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON...A SHALLOW LAYER OF FAIRLY
IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE HAS HUNG OUT ACROSS COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA
THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN HERE AT 3 PM DEWPOINTS ARE AROUND 60 IN THE
GEORGETOWN VICINITY...WITH MID TO UPPER 50S ALONG THE GRAND STRAND
BEACHES. THESE HIGHER DEWPOINTS SHOULD ADVECT NORTHWESTWARD THIS
EVENING IN THE VEERING FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING HIGH. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS MOISTURE LAYER SHOULD ONLY BE ABOUT 500-700
FEET THICK ACROSS THE WILMINGTON AREA OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD
INCREASE TO AROUND 1200-1500 FT DEPTH ACROSS FLORENCE AND THE PEE
DEE REGION. THIS IS PROBABLY THICK ENOUGH TO DEVELOP FOG AND SOME
LOW STRATUS INLAND LATE TONIGHT. USING THE NAM 975 MB RH GRID AS A
GUIDE...I AM FORECASTING THE BEST CHANCES FOR FOG FROM GEORGETOWN
AND MYRTLE BEACH NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS MARION AND FLORENCE INTO
HARTSVILLE AND BENNETTSVILLE OVERNIGHT. DESPITE SIMILAR LOW
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS WILMINGTON AND BURGAW THE VERTICAL
EXTENT OF MOISTURE HERE MAY BE INSUFFICIENT FOR MORE THAN SPOTTY
AND SHALLOW GROUND FOG.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO LOW TEMPERATURE
FORECASTS...STILL ANTICIPATED TO RANGE FROM 50-55...COOLEST FROM
LAKE WACCAMAW TO BURGAW...AND WARMEST ALONG THE SC BEACHES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...MAIN WEATHER HEADLINE/STORY THIS PERIOD IS A
A LEGITIMATE SHOT AT BREAKING A FEW RECORD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES.
LOCATION TUE OCT 28 WED OCT 29
WILMINGTON 87/1984 82/1984
FLORENCE 86/1991 84/1974
N. MYRTLE BEACH 83/1991 83/1991
APPEARS BASED ON THE DATA THE BEST SHOT AT MAKING HISTORY WILL BE
WEDNESDAY WHICH STILL PLACES US IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. TIME HEIGHT PLOTS OF RH IMPLY WE MAY SEE
PLENTY SUNSHINE WEDNESDAY TO HELP THE CAUSE WITH CLOUDS INCREASING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. RIGHT
NOW A CONSENSUS OF MODEL TIMING SUGGESTS THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE
PUSHED S AND E OF THE AREA DAYBREAK THURSDAY...WITH NORTH WINDS
ALREADY IN PLACE AT FIRST LIGHT.
HAVE RETAINED SLIGHT CHC/CHC SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND VERY EARLY
THURSDAY AS FRONT PASSES THROUGH.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...THE FRONT WILL BE THROUGH BY THE START OF THE
PERIOD BUT THE COLD ADVECTION WILL BE DELAYED. THURSDAY WILL BE
FAIRLY CLOUDY TO START BUT DRY AIR WILL BE ADVECTING IN AND THE
AFTERNOON SHOULD END UP QUITE SEASONABLE. THE FRONT WILL LINGER
OFF THE COAST ON FRIDAY WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RELOADS BUT
IT APPEARS TO BE FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO BRING MUCH CLOUD COVER AND
ANOTHER SEASONABLE AFTERNOON SHOULD BE ON TAP. THE MAIN TROUGH
AXIS SWINGS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AT WHICH TIME THE COLD ADVECTION
INTO THE CAROLINAS SHOULD BEGIN IN EARNEST. SATURDAY STILL LIKELY
OFFERS A BREEZY AFTERNOON WHERE TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE TO EXCEED
60...EXCEPT FOR SOUTHERN ZONES AS THE THERMAL TROUGH ENDS UP RIGHT
OVERHEAD AND THERE MAY BE A N TO S GRADIENT IN HIGHS. THIS THERMAL
TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD MEAN THAT
RADIATION COOLING IS FAVORED SATURDAY NIGHT BUT ALSO THAT THERE
MAY BE SOME RECOVERY BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS HAVE ALLOWED PATCHY TO
AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE CWA...PRIMARILY AT THE SOUTHERN
COASTAL TERMINALS. VSBYS ACROSS THE ILM SC TERMINALS HAVE DROPPED
TO DENSE FOG AND EXPECT THAT TO REMAIN THE CASE FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE PRE-DAWN TUE HOURS. LOOKING AT DENSE FOG TO FINALLY
OVERTAKE KLBT PRIOR TO DAYBREAK TUE...WITH KILM POSSIBLY TO REMAIN
DENSE FOG FREE. LATEST HRRR MODEL ILLUSTRATES ALL TERMINALS TO
EXPERIENCE VSBY AT OR BELOW 1/2 MILE EARLY THIS AM....WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF KILM. WILL FOLLOW THE HRRR OUTPUT THIS AM GIVEN ITS
OVERALL PERFORMANCE WITH IDENTIFYING THE FOG DEVELOPMENT AND ITS
PROGRESSION FROM LAST EVENING. THE FG/BR SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY
BETWEEN 12Z AND 1330Z...WITH VFR PREVAILING AT ALL TERMINALS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. WITH THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHING OFFSHORE...CALM WINDS EARLY AM WILL BECOME SW AROUND 5 KT.
EXPECT THE DIURNALLY INDUCED SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP WITH WINDS
BACKING TO SSE-SSW AOB 10 KT AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS FOR THIS
AFTN AND EARLY EVENING.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
CHANCE OF EARLY MORNING IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WED AM. SHOWERS/MVFR
POSSIBLE LATE WED/EARLY THU AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10:45 PM MONDAY...LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE WITH
SEAS OF UNDER 2 FT PREVAIL OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE THIS
EVENING. EXPECT THESE BENIGN CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. NO
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:
HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA IS MOVING OUT TO SEA
THIS AFTERNOON. EASTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE HIGH THIS EVENING WILL
COME AROUND TO THE SOUTH LATE...BUT WITH LITTLE INCREASE IN WIND
SPEEDS. THE STRONGEST WINDS OF THE NEXT 12 HOURS ARE PROBABLY
OCCURRING NOW WITH THE SEABREEZE CIRCULATION ENHANCING THE
SYNOPTIC FLOW. COMBINED SEAS ARE ONLY 1-2 FEET IN A COMBINATION OF
A TINY WIND CHOP AND TWO SMALL 10 SECOND SWELL COMPONENTS.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...S-SW WINDS THIS PERIOD...AND GRADUALLY
INCREASING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL CROSS THE
WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE PRESSURE FIELD SURROUNDING THIS
FRONT DOES NOT APPEAR STRONGLY CONTRASTED THUS NO ADVISORIES ARE
ANTICIPATED AS WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KT THROUGH
PASSAGE. WE MAY SEE GUSTS TO 20 KT HOWEVER AND SEAS UP TO 4 FEET
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT. AN ADVISORY HOWEVER MAY
BE NEEDED THU. THE SEA SPECTRUM WILL FEATURE 1-1.5 FT SE WAVES
EVERY 8-9 SECONDS...AND S WAVES 1-2 FT EVERY 3-5 SECONDS TIED IN
WITH LOCAL WINDS. WE CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TSTM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT OVER THE WATERS AS THE COLD FRONT TRAVELS THROUGH.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...POST-FRONTAL NORTHERLY WINDS TAKE OVER ON
THURSDAY. THE NORMAL COLD SURGE-INDUCED INCREASE IN WINDS IS
EXPECTED BUT ITS ONSET WILL BE QUITE GRADUAL AT FIRST. THIS WILL
BE MORE REALIZED HEADING INTO FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS WELL
OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND THE GRADIENT INCREASES LOCALLY.
ONCE THE UPPER TROUGH ENERGY SWINGS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AN EVEN
FURTHER INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED. WNA GUIDANCE APPEARS
QUITE UNDERDONE ON THE RESULTING SEAS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
SEEMS POSSIBLE.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ017-023-
024-032-033-039-053>056.
NC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ087-096-
099-109-110.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...DCH/REK
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
415 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...AND AN END OF THE WARM TEMPERATURES. COOLER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH EVEN
COLDER CONDITIONS BEHIND ANOTHER COLD FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NORTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN. THIS LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT WRAPS NORTHEAST AROUND A
LARGE MID-LEVEL TROUGH. TRAILING FROM THIS SURFACE LOW IS A
LENGTHY COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY EXTENDING THROUGH CHICAGO...ST
LOUIS...AND JUST NORTH OF DALLAS. ALTHOUGH THERE IS A MARKED
CHANGE IN AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT...THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS IT MOVES EAST. IN FACT...THE WIND SHIFT WILL
BECOME LESS DRASTIC WITH TIME...WITH THE EVENTUAL CHANGE IN
DIRECTION OVER THE ILN CWA ONLY EXPECTED TO BE SOUTHWESTERLY TO
WESTERLY. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT IS WEAKENING...AND CONVERGENCE IS
SOMEWHAT MODEST...THERE REMAINS STRONG MODEL AGREEMENT THAT
RAIN WILL FALL ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...HOWEVER...MAY BE QUITE LIGHT IN SOME
PLACES. RECENT HRRR RUNS SUGGEST THAT THE COVERAGE WILL BE THAT OF
BROKEN BANDS OF PRECIPITATION. THIS CREATED A CHALLENGE WITH THE
POPS...AS THERE MAY BE SOME DRY SPOTS MIXED WITHIN THE AREA OF
RAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SINCE MEASURABLE RAIN IS EXPECTED
EVERYWHERE...POPS ARE AT 100 PERCENT...BUT QPF AMOUNTS ARE LIGHT.
A FAIRLY POTENT LOW-LEVEL JET IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER THE ILN
FORECAST AREA...WITH THE KILN VWP SHOWING WINDS OF OVER 50 KNOTS
JUST 2000 FEET ABOVE THE GROUND. OCCASIONAL GUSTS ARE REACHING THE
SURFACE...AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY AS THE ATMOSPHERE MIXES
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A FEW GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS MAY BE
POSSIBLE IN THE WARM AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...THE
STRONGEST WINDS JUST ALOFT WILL ACTUALLY ALREADY BE MOVING OUT OF
THE AREA BY LATE MORNING. BY LATE MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON...WEAK INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. A MODEL COMPROMISE WOULD SUGGEST AROUND
500 J/KG OF MIXED LAYER CAPE...BUT IN A NARROW PROFILE LIMITED BY
RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE LAPSE RATES. SPC SREF PROBABILITIES INDICATE
ZERO CHANCE OF CAPE > 1000 J/KG...AND AROUND 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF
EVEN GETTING TO 500 J/KG. THUNDER IS EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED AND
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BANDS OF PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THOUGH OBVIOUSLY BECOMING A LITTLE MORE LIKELY AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. ATMOSPHERIC WIND SHEAR IS MARGINALLY IMPRESSIVE IN
TERMS OF NUMBERS (45 KNOTS 0-6KM / 30 KNOTS 0-3KM)...BUT NOT
IMPRESSIVE AT ALL IN TERMS OF ORIENTATION (UNIDIRECTIONAL AND
MOSTLY PARALLEL TO THE FRONT). THIS ADDS UP TO JUST A VERY SMALL
CHANCE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...AND LIMITED TO JUST THE NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY / SCIOTO VALLEY REGIONS. SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS
UNLIKELY...BUT IF STORMS DO DEVELOP IN THIS REGION (AS
HRRR/WRF-NMM PROJECTIONS INDICATE)...FORWARD PROPAGATING LINE
SEGMENTS COULD PRODUCE STRONG WINDS.
WITH THE FRONT COMING INTO THE AREA...IT IS NO SURPRISE THAT THE
MAX TEMPERATURE GRID WILL USE A SIGNIFICANT GRADIENT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BEGIN THE MORNING SIGNIFICANTLY AND ANOMALOUSLY WARM...ABOUT
AS WARM AS EVER OBSERVED DURING AN OVERNIGHT PERIOD IN LATE
OCTOBER. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES (UPPER 70S) ARE EXPECTED IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN CWA...WHERE WARM ADVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT FOR SEVERAL HOURS. MAX TEMPS MAY VERY WELL BE SET DURING
THE MORNING IN THE NORTHWESTERN CWA...WHERE THE FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH EARLIEST IN THE DAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
PRECIPITATION SHOULD END QUICKLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AS A
COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. MIN TEMPS
WERE LOWERED A FEW DEGREES FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN
THE NORTHEASTERN CWA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE WEST
OF THE AREA...INFLUENCING THE WEATHER ENOUGH TO KEEP CONDITIONS
DRY. HOWEVER...THE CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM WARMING...ESPECIALLY WITH OCCASIONAL CLOUDS (ESPECIALLY
CLOSER TO THE GREAT LAKES). WITH CALMING WINDS ON THURSDAY
MORNING...FROST IS LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY...EVEN THOUGH THERE
IS SOME CONCERN THAT CLOUDS COULD BE BUILDING IN BY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN DECREASED A COUPLE DEGREES HERE AS WELL.
THE NEXT BIG CHANGE IN AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE ON
FRIDAY...AND IT WILL AGAIN BE A CHANGE IN THE COOLER DIRECTION.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A STRONGER SHORT WAVE WILL ROTATE DOWN ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES AND PIVOT THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. WHILE THE STRONGEST FORCING WILL GENERALLY REMAIN TO OUR
NORTH AND EAST...WE SHOULD STILL AT LEAST SEE SOME SOME SCATTERED
SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH THE DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS ABOUT THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF OUR FA. STRONG CA WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE SHORT
WAVE...PUSHING DOWN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS LATER IN
THE DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA. IT LOOKS
LIKE THE COLDEST AIR WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL ONCE THE DEEPER
MOISTURE HAS SHIFTED OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY EVENING. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND THE COBB METHOD ARE BOTH SUGGESTING THAT THE LOWER
LEVELS WILL REMAIN WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP PCPN ALL LIQUID THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THAT BEING SAID...IF THE SHOWERS BECOME A BIT
CONVECTIVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...SUPPOSE A FEW WET SNOW FLAKES
COULD MIX IN LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST. IN CONTINUED
CAA...EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR OUR FIRST WIDESPREAD FREEZE FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING DOWN INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING
WELL BELOW NORMAL. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES ARE ONLY SUPPORTING HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ON SATURDAY. WILL NOT GO QUITE THAT
COLD AT THIS POINT BUT WILL NUDGE DOWN HIGHS A BIT...GENERALLY INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 40S. MODELS ARE A LITTLE FASTER NOW SHIFTING THE
HIGH OFF TO THE EAST SO IT MAY BE CENTERED JUST OFF TO OUR EAST BY
SUNDAY MORNING. WE SHOULD STILL HAVE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THOUGH AND
LIGHT WINDS...SO WOULD EXPECT SATURDAY NIGHT TO BE OUR COLDEST NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD THEN
SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH PUSHES
OFF TO THE EAST AND WE GET INTO RETURN FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A STRONG 925 MB-850 MB LOW LEVEL JET EXISTS OVER THE REGION THIS
MORNING WELL IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST.
BELIEVE NON CONVECTIVE LLWS WILL NOT BE MET (RESULTING IN +20
KT/-20 KT GAIN OR LOSS OF AIRSPEED) FOR VARIOUS REASONS. THERE IS
ENOUGH SUSTAINED WIND...LOCAL GUSTINESS...AT THE SURFACE TO
INDICATE SOME MIXING NEAR THE SURFACE. ALSO...MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THAT THE WIND SPEED INCREASE IS GRADUAL ENOUGH...AND THE
WIND DIRECTION CHANGE SMALL ENOUGH TO PREVENT TRUE LLWS. THUS...
ANY TURBULENCE WILL MOST LIKELY BE ATTRIBUTED TO MECHANICAL
TURBULENCE DUE TO INCREASING WIND FLOW WITH HEIGHT.
FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST WILL PUSH EAST
THROUGH THE REGION. THIS FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT. LOOKING AT MANY MODEL
SOLUTIONS...IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE APPROXIMATELY A 4 HOUR
WINDOW OF PCPN AT ALL TAF SITES. THINK WE WILL SEE AT LEAST SOME
MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES WITH SHOWERS. THREAT OF THUNDER IS LOW
ENOUGH TO JUST MENTION AS VCTS AT THIS TIME. THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THREAT NEAR THE EASTERN TAF SITES OF KCMH/KLCK
WHERE THE LATER ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR A LITTLE BIT
MORE DIURNAL INSTABILITY. GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
DIMINISH AND SHIFT TO THE WEST AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. MUCH
DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION AS WELL...ALLOWING VFR
CONDITIONS TO RETURN RATHER QUICKLY. FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS
THE FRONT CONTINUES EAST/SOUTHEAST...JUST SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED.
.OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...HICKMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
1123 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014
.DISCUSSION...
THE 06Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW...
&&
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN REASONING FROM THE 00Z FORECAST. SCT SHRA/TSRA
BEHIND A COLD FROPA MAY AFFECT THE TERMINALS THRU THE NIGHT. IF A
STORM MOVES OVER A TERMINAL...EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS FOR A TIME.
THE ACTIVITY SHOULD EXIT THE REGION BY AROUND 12Z TUESDAY
MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS THINGS CLEAR OUT ON
TUESDAY.
LACY
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 950 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014/
DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT AT 230Z..FROM FAR NORTHEAST CORNER OK TO SC OK.
RADAR OVER SMALL CORNER OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA UNIMPRESSIVE
AT THIS TIME...JUST SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS. ONLY A COUPLE
LIGHTNING STRIKES ALL EVENING NORTHEAST OK.
LATEST WRF/HRRR DRIER THAN EARLIER RUNS. MODESTLY REDUCED
POP FOR REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THUNDER THREAT NEGLIGIBLE.
GW
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014/
DISCUSSION...
THE 00Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.
AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY INTO NORTHEAST OK AND
WILL CONTINUE TO THE SOUTHEAST THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD. POST
FRONTAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...WITH THE
BEST COVERAGE EXPTD OVER IN NW AR. BASED ON THIS THINKING...VCTS
WILL BE USED FOR THE ERN OK SITES AND TEMPO GROUPS WILL BE USED
FOR THE NW AR SITES...WITH THE TIMING BASED ON THE LATEST DATA
FROM THE RUC13 AND HRRR MODELS.
LACY
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014/
DISCUSSION...
AFTER A BREEZY AND WARM START TO THE WORK WEEK...A MUCH COOLER AND
DRIER WEATHER PATTERN WILL DEVELOP FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
FIRST...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA THIS
EVENING...TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MAINLY
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. LIMITED INSTABILITY WILL LESSEN THE
CHANCE FOR ANY OF THE STORMS TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE...HOWEVER
A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SMALL
HAIL...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING...AS THE
FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION SHIFTS TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST. BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL QUICKLY FILTER INTO
THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS NORTH...AS THE FRONT STALLS
ACROSS THE SOUTH CONTINUING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE
FAR SOUTHEAST. THE FRONT WILL FINALLY SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING...LEAVING COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER BURST
OF COOLER AIR FOR LATE IN THE WEEK. LOOKING AHEAD...ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SECOND ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 54 72 44 72 / 50 10 0 0
FSM 61 71 46 71 / 50 40 20 10
MLC 57 72 46 73 / 40 20 10 0
BVO 50 71 39 71 / 40 10 0 0
FYV 54 69 40 68 / 60 20 10 0
BYV 55 68 42 67 / 60 20 10 10
MKO 56 72 44 72 / 50 20 0 0
MIO 52 69 42 69 / 60 10 0 0
F10 56 71 47 72 / 40 10 0 0
HHW 63 71 51 73 / 20 40 20 10
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
728 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINGING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA
BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE FIRST WIDESPREAD FROST
OF THE SEASON SO FAR MAY OCCUR THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THERE HAS BEEN AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE OFFSHORE HIGH. THIS MOISTURE PLUS
NOCTURNAL COOLING WITH DRY AIR ALOFT HAS HELPED CAUSE DENSE FOG
MAINLY IN THE EAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE HRRR DISPLAYS
THE FOG SPREADING WESTWARD AND INTO MUCH OF THE REMAINING FORECAST
AREA BEFORE 900 AM. WE HAVE POSTED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE
EASTERN AND CENTRAL PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. WE MAY NEED TO
EXPAND THE ADVISORY INTO THE WEST SECTION. HOWEVER...DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES ARE LOWER IN THE WEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
SATELLITE TRENDS HAVE INDICATED LITTLE DEVELOPMENT WESTWARD AND
INTO THIS DRIER AIR.
THE MOISTURE IS SHALLOW. HEATING AND MIXING SHOULD DISSIPATE THE
FOG LATER THIS MORNING. THE HRRR SHOWS FOG DIMINISHING BETWEEN
1000 AM AND 1100 AM.
IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH PLENTY OF AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. WE
USED THE WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BASED ON RECENT VERIFICATION.
EXPECT READINGS JUST SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN YESTERDAY BASED ON THE
INCREASED MOISTURE AND WEAK H85 COLD ADVECTION.
THE DRY WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH THE RIDGING REMAINING
DOMINATE. NOCTURNAL COOLING AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY SUPPORT AREAS
OF FOG AGAIN BUT THE FOG MAY BE LIMITED BY AN INCREASE IN
BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. IT MAY BE MORE
STRATUS THAN FOG BECAUSE OF THIS WIND. LEANED TOWARD THE MORE
CONSISTENT MAV MOS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE NAM AND GFS DISPLAY THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WEDNESDAY. THE NAM AND GFS
MOS HAVE CHANCE POPS AND THIS APPEARS REASONABLE. SATELLITE TRENDS
AND THE MODELS INDICATE THE STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL LIFT WILL STAY
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALSO EXPECT THE H85 FLOW WILL TURN
WESTERLY WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT LIMITING MOISTURE. THE NAM
DISPLAYS SURFACE-BASED LI/S -2 TO -3 WEDNESDAY. THE THUNDERSTORM
CHANCE IS LOW BECAUSE OF THE WEAK INSTABILITY AND FORCING. THE NAM
AND GFS INDICATE JUST LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS. USED THE WARMER
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BECAUSE WE SHOULD BE JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. MIXING BEHIND THE FRONT SUPPORTS THE
WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL FEATURE A COOLING TREND TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND POSSIBLY OUR FIRST WIDESPREAD FROST OF THE FALL
SEASON SATURDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THIS
PERIOD.
DRYING IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT SHOULD OCCUR THURSDAY. THE
MODELS SHOW A REINFORCING COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THIS FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE ORIGINATING IN CENTRAL
CANADA WILL DOMINATE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND
EKD MOS HAVE LOWS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. FROST MAY OCCUR DURING THESE NIGHTS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EARLY MORNING FOG AND STRATUS UNTIL AROUND 14Z.
LATEST 11U-3.9U IR SHOWING LOW CLOUDS/FOG SPREADING FROM THE
LOWCOUNTRY INTO THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE AN INCREASED FOG THREAT EARLY
THIS MORNING. THINK ALL TAF SITES WILL BE AFFECTED...WITH LIFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT CAE...AGS AND OGB...AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AT
CUB/DNL.
AFTER MORNING FOG AND LOW CLOUDINESS DISSIPATES...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO RETURN BY 14Z. . HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIP TO OUR EAST
AND A SW WIND EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. FEW TO SCT CU POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON.
.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE LATE TUE NT/EARLY WED MORNING. A FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH LATE WED/WED NT PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...AND
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
DAILY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE NOT ESTABLISHED MONDAY.
DAILY RECORD HIGHS FOR TUESDAY 10/28 ARE:
CAE...90/1984
AGS...89/1984
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ015-016-
022-027>031-035>038-041.
GA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR GAZ065-077.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
628 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINGING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA
BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE FIRST WIDESPREAD FROST
OF THE SEASON SO FAR MAY OCCUR THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THERE HAS BEEN AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE OFFSHORE HIGH. THIS MOISTURE PLUS
NOCTURNAL COOLING WITH DRY AIR ALOFT HAS HELPED CAUSE DENSE FOG
MAINLY IN THE EAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE HRRR DISPLAYS
THE FOG SPREADING WESTWARD AND INTO MUCH OF THE REMAINING FORECAST
AREA BEFORE 900 AM. WE HAVE POSTED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE
EASTERN AND CENTRAL PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. WE MAY NEED TO
EXPAND THE ADVISORY INTO THE WEST SECTION. HOWEVER...DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES ARE LOWER IN THE WEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
SATELLITE TRENDS HAVE INDICATED LITTLE DEVELOPMENT WESTWARD AND
INTO THIS DRIER AIR.
THE MOISTURE IS SHALLOW. HEATING AND MIXING SHOULD DISSIPATE THE
FOG LATER THIS MORNING. THE HRRR SHOWS FOG DIMINISHING BETWEEN
1000 AM AND 1100 AM.
IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH PLENTY OF AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. WE
USED THE WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BASED ON RECENT VERIFICATION.
EXPECT READINGS JUST SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN YESTERDAY BASED ON THE
INCREASED MOISTURE AND WEAK H85 COLD ADVECTION.
THE DRY WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH THE RIDGING REMAINING
DOMINATE. NOCTURNAL COOLING AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY SUPPORT AREAS
OF FOG AGAIN BUT THE FOG MAY BE LIMITED BY AN INCREASE IN
BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. IT MAY BE MORE
STRATUS THAN FOG BECAUSE OF THIS WIND. LEANED TOWARD THE MORE
CONSISTENT MAV MOS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE NAM AND GFS DISPLAY THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WEDNESDAY. THE NAM AND GFS
MOS HAVE CHANCE POPS AND THIS APPEARS REASONABLE. SATELLITE TRENDS
AND THE MODELS INDICATE THE STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL LIFT WILL STAY
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALSO EXPECT THE H85 FLOW WILL TURN
WESTERLY WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT LIMITING MOISTURE. THE NAM
DISPLAYS SURFACE-BASED LI/S -2 TO -3 WEDNESDAY. THE THUNDERSTORM
CHANCE IS LOW BECAUSE OF THE WEAK INSTABILITY AND FORCING. THE NAM
AND GFS INDICATE JUST LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS. USED THE WARMER
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BECAUSE WE SHOULD BE JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. MIXING BEHIND THE FRONT SUPPORTS THE
WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL FEATURE A COOLING TREND TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND POSSIBLY OUR FIRST WIDESPREAD FROST OF THE FALL
SEASON SATURDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THIS
PERIOD.
DRYING IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT SHOULD OCCUR THURSDAY. THE
MODELS SHOW A REINFORCING COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THIS FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE ORIGINATING IN CENTRAL
CANADA WILL DOMINATE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND
EKD MOS HAVE LOWS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. FROST MAY OCCUR DURING THESE NIGHTS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EARLY MORNING FOG AND STRATUS UNTIL AROUND 14Z.
LATEST 11U-3.9U IR SHOWING LOW CLOUDS/FOG SPREADING FROM THE
LOWCOUNTRY INTO THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE AN INCREASED FOG THREAT EARLY
THIS MORNING. THINK ALL TAF SITES WILL BE AFFECTED...WITH LIFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT AGS AND OGB...AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AT
CAE/CUB/DNL.
AFTER MORNING FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUDINESS DISSIPATES...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO RETURN BY 14Z. . HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIP TO OUR EAST
AND A SW WIND EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. FEW TO SCT CU POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON.
.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE LATE TUE NT/EARLY WED MORNING. A FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH LATE WED/WED NT PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...AND
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
DAILY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE NOT ESTABLISHED MONDAY.
DAILY RECORD HIGHS FOR TUESDAY 10/28 ARE:
CAE...90/1984
AGS...89/1984
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ015-016-
022-027>031-035>038-041.
GA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR GAZ065-077.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
621 AM CDT Tue Oct 28 2014
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 228 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014
Recent water vapor satellite imagery depicts a strong upper wave
rotating through the main upper trough across northern Kansas. A few
bands of mainly weak radar returns have passed through much of the
local area in recent hours via rather strong upper level
frontogenesis, but quite dry low levels limiting this to very light
amounts (if any) reaching the ground. NAM and RAP indicate both
forcing and moisture aloft diminishing through sunrise and these
processes seem to be underway per latest IR and radar trends.
Surface high pressure was building into the central High Plains with
temps there around the freezing mark under mainly clear skies and
light winds. It appears radar-produced low-level winds are being
impacted by bird migration with speeds likely 10-20kt too high.
Cold air advection becomes rather modest today, but much cooler air
than recent days will keep highs in the lower to mid 60s in decent
mixing. There should be a second round of high cloud in the morning
to early afternoon, but the late afternoon and nighttime hours
should be clear as the surface high comes into the Central Plains.
Expect some modification of the upstream airmass today, where local
temps have been well above normal for several days. Lows will be
kept above freezing, with slightly lower values likely in protected
areas. Have boosted frost wording but rather dry airmass and the
very warm ground may keep widespread frost in check.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 228 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014
A cool start expected for Wednesday with morning frost possible
across much of the forecast area. Temperatures still should make
it to lower to middle 60s as southerly winds slowly move into the
area from the west on the back side of the surface high. Some
amplified mixing and southerly flow comes through with the clipper
along and just to our north early Thursday, bringing mixed
overnight low temperatures in the 40s. Despite cooler air moving
driving southward into the northern and central plains for
Thursday, our area is on the leading edge of the colder air and
should mix to another day in the 60s before the colder
temperatures make it southward.
Again incoming high pressure and northerly winds through the night
Thursday night into Friday look to keep lows from tanking too far,
but do have lows in the 30s north to near 40 south. Sunshine
should help get temperatures into the 50s for Friday afternoon.
The surface high moves into the upper Midwest late Friday into
early Saturday, and keeps push of colder air over eastern Kansas
with lows forecast in the 30s. Another quick return of an upper
ridge and southerly surface winds should bring highs back into the
50s for Saturday.
How the next round of upper trofs moves out of the Rockies for
Sunday into Monday varies within the extended models. Could see
some warm air advection showers early Sunday but chances too low
for mention this early. Both EC and GFS suggest better chances for
rain come later Sunday into Monday and will keep grids as such,
but smaller scale and progressive nature of the waves will likely
change timing and probabilities as forecast draws closer.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 621 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014
VFR conditions expected as dry high pressure builds in. Modest
northwest winds will dominate, with weaker winds for much of the
latter half of the forecast.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...65
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS DULUTH MN
641 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 641 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014
UPDATED FOR THE NEW 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014
AT 330 AM...RAIN CONTINUED TO PUSH NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
ARROWHEAD REGION BUT THE OVERALL TREND HAS BEEN TO DIMINISH IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. MUCH OF THE REGION WAS NOW IN A DRY SLOT
WRAPPING INTO THE DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WERE
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S.
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE DEVELOPING
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...WHICH IS CURRENTLY STILL IN
TRANSITION FROM HAVING THE TWO UPPER LEVEL LOWS PHASE INTO ONE.
RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS
THE DAY WEARS ON...STARTING IN NORTH CENTRAL MN AND THEN SPREADING
SOUTH AND EASTWARD THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE CWA. THE 4 KM NMM WRF
SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY AS WELL AS THE HRRR ALL SUPPORT THIS
SCENARIO. WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH TODAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT A POSSIBLE MIX IN THE FAR
NORTH FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
CWA INTO TONIGHT. NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION
BUT COULD SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION ON GRASSY AREAS NORTH.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE TONIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY
ON WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER DEVELOPING
ON WEDNESDAY BUT ALSO THINK THE LOW CLOUDS WILL BE FAIRLY
PERSISTENT AND WIDESPREAD.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014
A SUBTLE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND
TUESDAY EVENING...WHILE A SHORTWAVE AND LOW WILL PASS JUST TO THE
WEST AND SOUTH OF THE NORTHLAND. THIS SHORTWAVE AND TROUGH COULD
BRING LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE FAR SW FORECAST AREA.
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY WITH A
LARGE SURFACE HIGH FOLLOWING IN ITS WAKE. THE COOL NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL RESULT IN CLOUDY WEATHER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING WITH
CHANCES OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS NEAR THE
GOGEBIC RANGE COULD RESULT IN UP TO A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOWFALL.
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHLAND FRIDAY. HALLOWEEN
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE ONE OF THE COLDEST DAYS THIS FALL SO FAR...BUT
IT SHOULD BE SUNNY WITH LIGHT WINDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 30S OVER THE NORTH TO NEAR 40 DEGREES OVER THE SOUTH.
THERE WILL BE A WARMING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING SURFACE HIGH AND A MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IN THE WESTERN UNITED STATES SHIFTS IN THE CENTRAL PART
OF THE COUNTRY. THERE ARE LOW CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 641 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL LIFT INTO NE
ONTARIO TODAY. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS OVER
NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE COULD BE
BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CIGS AND/OR VSBYS FROM -RA OR -RASN. GUSTY W
TO WNW WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 44 33 41 33 / 70 60 10 10
INL 41 30 38 30 / 70 70 10 10
BRD 44 33 44 33 / 40 20 0 10
HYR 48 35 45 32 / 60 50 10 10
ASX 49 37 44 33 / 70 60 10 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 AM CDT
WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ121-145>148.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR LSZ143-144.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1004 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS INTO EARLY
THURSDAY...ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. A SECOND AND
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING
THE FIRST TRULY COLD AIR OF THE SEASON FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 AM TUESDAY...DENSE FOG HAS DISSIPATED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA SO THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT
10 AM EDT. LINGERING LOW STRATUS ASSOCIATED WITH DISSIPATING FOG
SHOULD BE GONE WITHIN THE NEXT 2 HOURS. SKIES WILL AGAIN REMAIN
CLOUD FREE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT KEEPING MID LEVELS
VERY DRY. ONLY MINIMAL CHANGES REQUIRED FOR MORNING UPDATE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:
AS OF 615 AM TUESDAY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO REMAIN IN EFFECT
THRU 9AM FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE ILM CWA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE COASTAL COUNTIES FROM CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD. LATEST SFC OBS
TRENDS...LATEST IR 11-3.9 MICRON CHANNEL SATELLITE IMAGERY
TRENDS AND THE LATEST HRRR MODEL PROJECTIONS...ALL INDICATE THE
AREAS TO WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG ACROSS THE FA TO CONTINUE THROUGH
DAYBREAK. THE FOG IS QUITE SHALLOW VIA VARIOUS MODEL SOUNDING
DATA IN THE VERTICAL...AND SHOULD ALL DISSIPATE BY 1300Z.
A FULL DAYS WORTH OF INSOLATION IS IN STORE FOR THE FA AS THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS PUSHES OFF THE CAROLINA COASTS DURING TODAY.
WITH 500MB HEIGHTS PROGGED IN THE 580S AND CORRESPONDING 1K-5H
THICKNESSES IN THE 570S...WIDESPREAD 80S FOR MAX TEMPS TODAY ARE
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. A SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR BY
MIDDAY WITH SOME INLAND PENETRATION THIS AFTN...THUS LIMITING THE
80+ DEGREE HIGHS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. INLAND WILL BE A
DIFFERENT STORY WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT SW WINDS WITH MIXING IN THE
LOW LEVELS LIMITED...MAX TEMPS COULD APPROACH RECORD HIGHS THIS
AFTERNOON.
RECORD HIGHS TODAY...TUESDAY OCT 28 2014...
FLORENCE RECORD IS 86 SET IN 1991.
NORTH MYRTLE BEACH RECORD IS 83 SET IN 1991...COULD BE REACHED IF
THE SEA BREEZE IS DELAYED.
WILMINGTON RECORD IS 87 SET IN 1984...WILL LIKELY FALL SHORT.
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS PROGGED TO MOVE FURTHER EAST AND OFFSHORE
FROM THE CAROLINA COASTS TONIGHT...ALLOWING INCREASING SW WINDS
TO SET UP ALOFT. MODELS HINT AT A 25 TO 30 KT LOW LEVEL JET TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE FA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. NAMBUFR HOURLY
SOUNDINGS ILLUSTRATE THIS JET AND ALSO THE LIMITED MOISTURE FROM
THE SFC UP TO THE BASE OF THIS LOW LEVEL JET. AS A RESULT...SFC
FOG FORMATION...IF ANY...WILL BE PATCHY AND AT A MINIMUM.
HOWEVER...A LOW STRATUS CLOUD DECK REMAINS POSSIBLE AND THEREFORE
WILL NOT GO COMPLETELY CLEAR FOR SKY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
UPSTREAM THIN CI WILL LIKELY SPREAD OVERHEAD...MAINLY ACROSS THE
ILM NC COUNTIES. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOP
OVER THE GULF STREAM LATE TONIGHT...WITH ANY ISOLATED NOCTURNAL
SHRA REMAINING OFFSHORE. FOR TONIGHT...KEPT MINS CLOSER TO THE
HIGHER END OF THE AVBL MODEL MOS GUIDANCE...AND WENT EVEN A FEW
DEGREES HIER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST DUE TO ACTIVE ONSHORE SSW-
SW WINDS HAVING CROSSED SSTS STILL IN THE 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...ONE LAST WARM DAY WEDNESDAY BEFORE A MAJOR
PATTERN SHIFT OCCURS ACROSS THE EAST. HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL
ONCE AGAIN COMBINE WITH RAISED THICKNESSES BENEATH AN UPPER RIDGE
TO DRIVE WARM ADVECTION AND CAUSE MAX TEMPS TO SOAR INTO THE 80S.
RECORD HIGHS WILL BE APPROACHED...ESPECIALLY INLAND SINCE COOLER
OCEAN TEMPS WILL KEEP HIGHS AT THE COAST LOWER...BUT A WARM DAY
EVERYWHERE IS EXPECTED. THIS WILL BE THE LAST OF THE WARMTH FOR
SOME TIME HOWEVER.
COLD FRONT RACES EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CROSSING OFFSHORE BY
THURSDAY MORNING. THIS IS PUSHED BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND
ALTHOUGH THE FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY AND PWATS RISE ONLY
MARGINALLY...SOME QPF IS EXPECTED WITHIN SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT.
WHILE THE RAIN IS NEEDED LOCALLY...THE FORECAST LOW QPF WILL BE
ONLY MARGINALLY BENEFICIAL. STILL...THE FRONT SIGNALS A
SIGNIFICANT AIR-MASS CHANGE AND TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL BE 10-15
DEGREES COOLER THAN THE HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL STALL
JUST OFFSHORE AS A SECOND SHORTWAVE DIVES INTO THE DEVELOPING
FULL-LATITUDE TROUGH...AND THIS WILL KEEP AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY...PRIMARILY NEAR THE COAST. IT
WILL NOT BE A WASH OUT BY ANY STRETCH...BUT SIGNIFICANT CLOUD
COVER IS EXPECTED.
MINS WED NIGHT AHEAD OF/ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL BE IN THE MID
50S...FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 THURSDAY NIGHT
BEHIND THE FRONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL EXIST ON
HALLOWEEN...BUT THE REAL STORY OF THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE FIRST
TRULY COLD AIR OF THE SEASON.
LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST WILL REASSERT ITSELF AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE ON
FRIDAY IS QUITE POTENT...AND ALTHOUGH IT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK JUST
NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA...ENOUGH FORCING ALOFT COMBINED WITH SOME
SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT BENEATH IT MAY CREATE SOME
SHOWERS FOR HALLOWEEN NIGHT. COLUMN BECOMES INCREASINGLY SATURATED
FRIDAY EVE AND OVERNIGHT...BUT MOISTURE IS CONFINED BELOW 600MB AND
PWATS STAY RATHER LOW. EXPECT MORE CLOUDS THAN SHOWERS...BUT CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME LIGHT QPF FOR HALLOWEEN FESTIVITIES.
MORE IMPRESSIVELY HOWEVER...WILL BE THE COLD ADVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS BEHIND THIS FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN BEHIND THIS FEATURE BRINGS COLD AIR WITH IT...AS
EVIDENCED BY 925MB TEMPS DROPPING 8-10C DURING EARLY SATURDAY.
THIS COMBINED WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL DROP TEMPS TO NEAR
JANUARY-LEVELS...WITH HIGHS AND LOWS EXPECTED TO BE 10+ DEGREES
BELOW CLIMO...THE FIRST COLD OUTBREAK OF THE YEAR. LOWS SUNDAY
MORNING ARE FORECAST TO BE THE COLDEST OF THE STRETCH...WHEN MANY
LOCATIONS WITHIN THE CWA SHOULD DROP BELOW 40 DEGREES...ALTHOUGH
MONDAY MORNING MAY BE EQUALLY COLD AS RADIATIONAL COOLING BECOMES
MORE SIGNIFICANT THANKS TO LIGHTER WINDS. SOIL TEMPERATURES ARE
STILL QUITE WARM...AND THE WINDS SUNDAY MORNING SHOULD PRECLUDE
ANY FROST LOCALLY. HOWEVER...AS WINDS EASE AND SOIL TEMPS DROP
WITH THE UPCOMING COLD AIR...FROST IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY
MONDAY MORNING. HIGHS FOR THE WKND WILL STRUGGLE TO EVEN REACH 60.
ON MONDAY THE CORE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE...SO
WHILE TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE BEGINNING OF
NOVEMBER...THEY WILL WARM SEVERAL DEGREES FROM WHAT IS ANTICIPATED
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG WILL AFFECT THE MYRTLES AND THE
INLAND TERMINALS THROUGH 13Z...IMPROVING TO VFR BY 14Z. ILM IS UP AT
THIS TIME...BUT COULD HAVE BRIEF FOG/STRATUS AS A LITTLE MIXING
BEGINS. HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL GIVE US SOUTHWEST FLOW
TODAY...WITH A SLIGHT BACKING TO SOUTH NEAR THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...FOG WILL LIKELY RETURN WITH FAVORABLE MOISTURE
PROFILES ONCE AGAIN.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
CHANCE OF EARLY MORNING IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WED AM. SHOWERS/MVFR
POSSIBLE LATE WED/EARLY THU AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 9 AM TUESDAY...LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TODAY AS
SURFACE HIGH OFF THE COAST DRIFTS FARTHER EAST. SPEEDS WILL
GENERALLY BE 10 TO 15 KT BUT ISOLATED HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST ONCE THE SEA BREEZE SETS UP.
SEAS WILL RUN 1 TO 2 FT TODAY. MINIMAL CHANGES TO FORECAST
REQUIRED FOR MORNING UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:
AS OF 630 AM TUESDAY...CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH TO PUSH FURTHER EAST
AND OFFSHORE FROM THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE SFC
PRESSURE PATTERN AND RELAXED GRADIENT WILL YIELD A SSW-SW WIND
AROUND 10 KT TODAY...AND MAINLY SW INCREASING TO 10-15 KT WITH FEW
GUSTS UP TO 20 KT LATE TONIGHT. FOR THE NEAR SHORE WATERS...THE
SEA BREEZE THIS AFTN WILL BACK WINDS TO SSE-S AT 10 TO POSSIBLY 15
KT INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE OVERALL INCREASING SYNOPTIC WINDS AND
GUSTS TONIGHT WILL BE THE RESULT OF A LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY JET
AND A SLIGHTLY TIGHTENED SFC PG. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN 1 TO 2 FT
TODAY...AND BUILD TO NEAR OR AROUND 3 FT TONIGHT. THIS IS IN LINE
WITH WAVEWATCH3 AND LOCALLY PRODUCED SWAN NUMBERS. DOMINANT PERIODS
WILL RANGE 8 TO 9 SECONDS TODAY WITH AN EASTERLY GROUND SWELL
PREVAILING. DOMINANT PERIODS WILL DROP TO 3 TO 5 SECONDS NEARSHORE
THIS AFTN...AND FOR ALL WATERS TONIGHT. THIS IN RESPONSE TO THE SEA
BREEZE THIS AFTN...FOLLOWED BY INCREASING SW WIND DRIVEN WAVES
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE DRIVES RETURN FLOW
ACROSS THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SW WINDS OF 10-15 KTS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE WATERS CAUSING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW...AND THEN
NORTH...BY THURSDAY MORNING WITH SPEEDS STILL AT 10-15 KTS. THESE
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST ON THURSDAY...BUT INCREASE SLOWLY
LATE IN THE PERIOD. SEAS WED/THU WILL BE PRIMARILY WIND-WAVE
DRIVEN...WITH A SW WIND CHOP PRODUCING 2-3 FT SEAS WEDNESDAY.
AFTER A BRIEF DECREASE IN WAVE AMPLITUDES BEHIND THE FRONT...A
NORTHERLY WIND WAVE WILL AMPLIFY DURING THURSDAY...CAUSING SEAS TO
RISE TO 2-4 FT LATE.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...N/NW WINDS FRIDAY WILL BE CONSISTENTLY 10-15
KTS...AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN FROM THE NORTH AND A COLD FRONT
STALLS OFFSHORE. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND THIS WILL PRODUCE VERY GUSTY WINDS BEHIND IT...AND N/NW
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB ABOVE 25 KTS MUCH OF SATURDAY...AND A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS LIKELY. SEAS FRIDAY WILL BE 2-4 FT...WITH
THE HIGHEST WAVES CONFINED NEAR THE 20NM BOUNDARY...BUT WILL RISE
SIGNIFICANTLY ON SATURDAY TO 4-6 FT.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
921 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS INTO EARLY
THURSDAY...ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. A SECOND AND
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING
THE FIRST TRULY COLD AIR OF THE SEASON FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 9 AM TUESDAY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST FOG WILL HANG
AROUND IN MOST AREAS FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO...THUS THE DFA HAS
BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH 10 AM. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS SHALLOW SO ONCE
MIXING DEVELOPS THE FOG SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE. SKIES WILL AGAIN
REMAIN CLOUD FREE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT KEEPING MID
LEVELS VERY DRY. ONLY MINIMAL CHANGES REQUIRED FOR MORNING UPDATE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:
AS OF 615 AM TUESDAY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO REMAIN IN EFFECT
THRU 9AM FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE ILM CWA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE COASTAL COUNTIES FROM CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD. LATEST SFC OBS
TRENDS...LATEST IR 11-3.9 MICRON CHANNEL SATELLITE IMAGERY
TRENDS AND THE LATEST HRRR MODEL PROJECTIONS...ALL INDICATE THE
AREAS TO WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG ACROSS THE FA TO CONTINUE THROUGH
DAYBREAK. THE FOG IS QUITE SHALLOW VIA VARIOUS MODEL SOUNDING
DATA IN THE VERTICAL...AND SHOULD ALL DISSIPATE BY 1300Z.
A FULL DAYS WORTH OF INSOLATION IS IN STORE FOR THE FA AS THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS PUSHES OFF THE CAROLINA COASTS DURING TODAY.
WITH 500MB HEIGHTS PROGGED IN THE 580S AND CORRESPONDING 1K-5H
THICKNESSES IN THE 570S...WIDESPREAD 80S FOR MAX TEMPS TODAY ARE
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. A SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR BY
MIDDAY WITH SOME INLAND PENETRATION THIS AFTN...THUS LIMITING THE
80+ DEGREE HIGHS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. INLAND WILL BE A
DIFFERENT STORY WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT SW WINDS WITH MIXING IN THE
LOW LEVELS LIMITED...MAX TEMPS COULD APPROACH RECORD HIGHS THIS
AFTERNOON.
RECORD HIGHS TODAY...TUESDAY OCT 28 2014...
FLORENCE RECORD IS 86 SET IN 1991.
NORTH MYRTLE BEACH RECORD IS 83 SET IN 1991...COULD BE REACHED IF
THE SEA BREEZE IS DELAYED.
WILMINGTON RECORD IS 87 SET IN 1984...WILL LIKELY FALL SHORT.
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS PROGGED TO MOVE FURTHER EAST AND OFFSHORE
FROM THE CAROLINA COASTS TONIGHT...ALLOWING INCREASING SW WINDS
TO SET UP ALOFT. MODELS HINT AT A 25 TO 30 KT LOW LEVEL JET TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE FA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. NAMBUFR HOURLY
SOUNDINGS ILLUSTRATE THIS JET AND ALSO THE LIMITED MOISTURE FROM
THE SFC UP TO THE BASE OF THIS LOW LEVEL JET. AS A RESULT...SFC
FOG FORMATION...IF ANY...WILL BE PATCHY AND AT A MINIMUM.
HOWEVER...A LOW STRATUS CLOUD DECK REMAINS POSSIBLE AND THEREFORE
WILL NOT GO COMPLETELY CLEAR FOR SKY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
UPSTREAM THIN CI WILL LIKELY SPREAD OVERHEAD...MAINLY ACROSS THE
ILM NC COUNTIES. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOP
OVER THE GULF STREAM LATE TONIGHT...WITH ANY ISOLATED NOCTURNAL
SHRA REMAINING OFFSHORE. FOR TONIGHT...KEPT MINS CLOSER TO THE
HIGHER END OF THE AVBL MODEL MOS GUIDANCE...AND WENT EVEN A FEW
DEGREES HIER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST DUE TO ACTIVE ONSHORE SSW-
SW WINDS HAVING CROSSED SSTS STILL IN THE 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...ONE LAST WARM DAY WEDNESDAY BEFORE A MAJOR
PATTERN SHIFT OCCURS ACROSS THE EAST. HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL
ONCE AGAIN COMBINE WITH RAISED THICKNESSES BENEATH AN UPPER RIDGE
TO DRIVE WARM ADVECTION AND CAUSE MAX TEMPS TO SOAR INTO THE 80S.
RECORD HIGHS WILL BE APPROACHED...ESPECIALLY INLAND SINCE COOLER
OCEAN TEMPS WILL KEEP HIGHS AT THE COAST LOWER...BUT A WARM DAY
EVERYWHERE IS EXPECTED. THIS WILL BE THE LAST OF THE WARMTH FOR
SOME TIME HOWEVER.
COLD FRONT RACES EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CROSSING OFFSHORE BY
THURSDAY MORNING. THIS IS PUSHED BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND
ALTHOUGH THE FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY AND PWATS RISE ONLY
MARGINALLY...SOME QPF IS EXPECTED WITHIN SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT.
WHILE THE RAIN IS NEEDED LOCALLY...THE FORECAST LOW QPF WILL BE
ONLY MARGINALLY BENEFICIAL. STILL...THE FRONT SIGNALS A
SIGNIFICANT AIR-MASS CHANGE AND TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL BE 10-15
DEGREES COOLER THAN THE HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL STALL
JUST OFFSHORE AS A SECOND SHORTWAVE DIVES INTO THE DEVELOPING
FULL-LATITUDE TROUGH...AND THIS WILL KEEP AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY...PRIMARILY NEAR THE COAST. IT
WILL NOT BE A WASH OUT BY ANY STRETCH...BUT SIGNIFICANT CLOUD
COVER IS EXPECTED.
MINS WED NIGHT AHEAD OF/ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL BE IN THE MID
50S...FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 THURSDAY NIGHT
BEHIND THE FRONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL EXIST ON
HALLOWEEN...BUT THE REAL STORY OF THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE FIRST
TRULY COLD AIR OF THE SEASON.
LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST WILL REASSERT ITSELF AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE ON
FRIDAY IS QUITE POTENT...AND ALTHOUGH IT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK JUST
NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA...ENOUGH FORCING ALOFT COMBINED WITH SOME
SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT BENEATH IT MAY CREATE SOME
SHOWERS FOR HALLOWEEN NIGHT. COLUMN BECOMES INCREASINGLY SATURATED
FRIDAY EVE AND OVERNIGHT...BUT MOISTURE IS CONFINED BELOW 600MB AND
PWATS STAY RATHER LOW. EXPECT MORE CLOUDS THAN SHOWERS...BUT CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME LIGHT QPF FOR HALLOWEEN FESTIVITIES.
MORE IMPRESSIVELY HOWEVER...WILL BE THE COLD ADVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS BEHIND THIS FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN BEHIND THIS FEATURE BRINGS COLD AIR WITH IT...AS
EVIDENCED BY 925MB TEMPS DROPPING 8-10C DURING EARLY SATURDAY.
THIS COMBINED WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL DROP TEMPS TO NEAR
JANUARY-LEVELS...WITH HIGHS AND LOWS EXPECTED TO BE 10+ DEGREES
BELOW CLIMO...THE FIRST COLD OUTBREAK OF THE YEAR. LOWS SUNDAY
MORNING ARE FORECAST TO BE THE COLDEST OF THE STRETCH...WHEN MANY
LOCATIONS WITHIN THE CWA SHOULD DROP BELOW 40 DEGREES...ALTHOUGH
MONDAY MORNING MAY BE EQUALLY COLD AS RADIATIONAL COOLING BECOMES
MORE SIGNIFICANT THANKS TO LIGHTER WINDS. SOIL TEMPERATURES ARE
STILL QUITE WARM...AND THE WINDS SUNDAY MORNING SHOULD PRECLUDE
ANY FROST LOCALLY. HOWEVER...AS WINDS EASE AND SOIL TEMPS DROP
WITH THE UPCOMING COLD AIR...FROST IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY
MONDAY MORNING. HIGHS FOR THE WKND WILL STRUGGLE TO EVEN REACH 60.
ON MONDAY THE CORE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE...SO
WHILE TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE BEGINNING OF
NOVEMBER...THEY WILL WARM SEVERAL DEGREES FROM WHAT IS ANTICIPATED
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG WILL AFFECT THE MYRTLES AND THE
INLAND TERMINALS THROUGH 13Z...IMPROVING TO VFR BY 14Z. ILM IS UP AT
THIS TIME...BUT COULD HAVE BRIEF FOG/STRATUS AS A LITTLE MIXING
BEGINS. HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL GIVE US SOUTHWEST FLOW
TODAY...WITH A SLIGHT BACKING TO SOUTH NEAR THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...FOG WILL LIKELY RETURN WITH FAVORABLE MOISTURE
PROFILES ONCE AGAIN.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
CHANCE OF EARLY MORNING IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WED AM. SHOWERS/MVFR
POSSIBLE LATE WED/EARLY THU AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 9 AM TUESDAY...LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TODAY AS
SURFACE HIGH OFF THE COAST DRIFTS FARTHER EAST. SPEEDS WILL
GENERALLY BE 10 TO 15 KT BUT ISOLATED HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST ONCE THE SEA BREEZE SETS UP.
SEAS WILL RUN 1 TO 2 FT TODAY. MINIMAL CHANGES TO FORECAST
REQUIRED FOR MORNING UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:
AS OF 630 AM TUESDAY...CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH TO PUSH FURTHER EAST
AND OFFSHORE FROM THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE SFC
PRESSURE PATTERN AND RELAXED GRADIENT WILL YIELD A SSW-SW WIND
AROUND 10 KT TODAY...AND MAINLY SW INCREASING TO 10-15 KT WITH FEW
GUSTS UP TO 20 KT LATE TONIGHT. FOR THE NEAR SHORE WATERS...THE
SEA BREEZE THIS AFTN WILL BACK WINDS TO SSE-S AT 10 TO POSSIBLY 15
KT INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE OVERALL INCREASING SYNOPTIC WINDS AND
GUSTS TONIGHT WILL BE THE RESULT OF A LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY JET
AND A SLIGHTLY TIGHTENED SFC PG. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN 1 TO 2 FT
TODAY...AND BUILD TO NEAR OR AROUND 3 FT TONIGHT. THIS IS IN LINE
WITH WAVEWATCH3 AND LOCALLY PRODUCED SWAN NUMBERS. DOMINANT PERIODS
WILL RANGE 8 TO 9 SECONDS TODAY WITH AN EASTERLY GROUND SWELL
PREVAILING. DOMINANT PERIODS WILL DROP TO 3 TO 5 SECONDS NEARSHORE
THIS AFTN...AND FOR ALL WATERS TONIGHT. THIS IN RESPONSE TO THE SEA
BREEZE THIS AFTN...FOLLOWED BY INCREASING SW WIND DRIVEN WAVES
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE DRIVES RETURN FLOW
ACROSS THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SW WINDS OF 10-15 KTS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE WATERS CAUSING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW...AND THEN
NORTH...BY THURSDAY MORNING WITH SPEEDS STILL AT 10-15 KTS. THESE
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST ON THURSDAY...BUT INCREASE SLOWLY
LATE IN THE PERIOD. SEAS WED/THU WILL BE PRIMARILY WIND-WAVE
DRIVEN...WITH A SW WIND CHOP PRODUCING 2-3 FT SEAS WEDNESDAY.
AFTER A BRIEF DECREASE IN WAVE AMPLITUDES BEHIND THE FRONT...A
NORTHERLY WIND WAVE WILL AMPLIFY DURING THURSDAY...CAUSING SEAS TO
RISE TO 2-4 FT LATE.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...N/NW WINDS FRIDAY WILL BE CONSISTENTLY 10-15
KTS...AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN FROM THE NORTH AND A COLD FRONT
STALLS OFFSHORE. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND THIS WILL PRODUCE VERY GUSTY WINDS BEHIND IT...AND N/NW
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB ABOVE 25 KTS MUCH OF SATURDAY...AND A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS LIKELY. SEAS FRIDAY WILL BE 2-4 FT...WITH
THE HIGHEST WAVES CONFINED NEAR THE 20NM BOUNDARY...BUT WILL RISE
SIGNIFICANTLY ON SATURDAY TO 4-6 FT.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ017-023-
024-032-033-039-053>056.
NC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ087-096-
099-109-110.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
648 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS INTO EARLY
THURSDAY...ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. A SECOND AND
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING
THE FIRST TRULY COLD AIR OF THE SEASON FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 615 AM TUESDAY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO REMAIN IN EFFECT
THRU 9AM FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE ILM CWA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE COASTAL COUNTIES FROM CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD. LATEST SFC OBS
TRENDS...LATEST IR 11-3.9 MICRON CHANNEL SATELLITE IMAGERY
TRENDS AND THE LATEST HRRR MODEL PROJECTIONS...ALL INDICATE THE
AREAS TO WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG ACROSS THE FA TO CONTINUE THROUGH
DAYBREAK. THE FOG IS QUITE SHALLOW VIA VARIOUS MODEL SOUNDING
DATA IN THE VERTICAL...AND SHOULD ALL DISSIPATE BY 1300Z.
A FULL DAYS WORTH OF INSOLATION IS IN STORE FOR THE FA AS THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS PUSHES OFF THE CAROLINA COASTS DURING TODAY.
WITH 500MB HEIGHTS PROGGED IN THE 580S AND CORRESPONDING 1K-5H
THICKNESSES IN THE 570S...WIDESPREAD 80S FOR MAX TEMPS TODAY ARE
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. A SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR BY
MIDDAY WITH SOME INLAND PENETRATION THIS AFTN...THUS LIMITING THE
80+ DEGREE HIGHS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. INLAND WILL BE A
DIFFERENT STORY WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT SW WINDS WITH MIXING IN THE
LOW LEVELS LIMITED...MAX TEMPS COULD APPROACH RECORD HIGHS THIS
AFTERNOON.
RECORD HIGHS TODAY...TUESDAY OCT 28 2014...
FLORENCE RECORD IS 86 SET IN 1991.
NORTH MYRTLE BEACH RECORD IS 83 SET IN 1991...COULD BE REACHED IF
THE SEA BREEZE IS DELAYED.
WILMINGTON RECORD IS 87 SET IN 1984...WILL LIKELY FALL SHORT.
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS PROGGED TO MOVE FURTHER EAST AND OFFSHORE
FROM THE CAROLINA COASTS TONIGHT...ALLOWING INCREASING SW WINDS
TO SET UP ALOFT. MODELS HINT AT A 25 TO 30 KT LOW LEVEL JET TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE FA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. NAMBUFR HOURLY
SOUNDINGS ILLUSTRATE THIS JET AND ALSO THE LIMITED MOISTURE FROM
THE SFC UP TO THE BASE OF THIS LOW LEVEL JET. AS A RESULT...SFC
FOG FORMATION...IF ANY...WILL BE PATCHY AND AT A MINIMUM.
HOWEVER...A LOW STRATUS CLOUD DECK REMAINS POSSIBLE AND THEREFORE
WILL NOT GO COMPLETELY CLEAR FOR SKY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
UPSTREAM THIN CI WILL LIKELY SPREAD OVERHEAD...MAINLY ACROSS THE
ILM NC COUNTIES. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOP
OVER THE GULF STREAM LATE TONIGHT...WITH ANY ISOLATED NOCTURNAL
SHRA REMAINING OFFSHORE. FOR TONIGHT...KEPT MINS CLOSER TO THE
HIGHER END OF THE AVBL MODEL MOS GUIDANCE...AND WENT EVEN A FEW
DEGREES HIER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST DUE TO ACTIVE ONSHORE SSW-
SW WINDS HAVING CROSSED SSTS STILL IN THE 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...ONE LAST WARM DAY WEDNESDAY BEFORE A MAJOR
PATTERN SHIFT OCCURS ACROSS THE EAST. HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL
ONCE AGAIN COMBINE WITH RAISED THICKNESSES BENEATH AN UPPER RIDGE
TO DRIVE WARM ADVECTION AND CAUSE MAX TEMPS TO SOAR INTO THE 80S.
RECORD HIGHS WILL BE APPROACHED...ESPECIALLY INLAND SINCE COOLER
OCEAN TEMPS WILL KEEP HIGHS AT THE COAST LOWER...BUT A WARM DAY
EVERYWHERE IS EXPECTED. THIS WILL BE THE LAST OF THE WARMTH FOR
SOME TIME HOWEVER.
COLD FRONT RACES EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CROSSING OFFSHORE BY
THURSDAY MORNING. THIS IS PUSHED BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND
ALTHOUGH THE FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY AND PWATS RISE ONLY
MARGINALLY...SOME QPF IS EXPECTED WITHIN SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT.
WHILE THE RAIN IS NEEDED LOCALLY...THE FORECAST LOW QPF WILL BE
ONLY MARGINALLY BENEFICIAL. STILL...THE FRONT SIGNALS A
SIGNIFICANT AIR-MASS CHANGE AND TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL BE 10-15
DEGREES COOLER THAN THE HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL STALL
JUST OFFSHORE AS A SECOND SHORTWAVE DIVES INTO THE DEVELOPING
FULL-LATITUDE TROUGH...AND THIS WILL KEEP AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY...PRIMARILY NEAR THE COAST. IT
WILL NOT BE A WASH OUT BY ANY STRETCH...BUT SIGNIFICANT CLOUD
COVER IS EXPECTED.
MINS WED NIGHT AHEAD OF/ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL BE IN THE MID
50S...FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 THURSDAY NIGHT
BEHIND THE FRONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL EXIST ON
HALLOWEEN...BUT THE REAL STORY OF THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE FIRST
TRULY COLD AIR OF THE SEASON.
LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST WILL REASSERT ITSELF AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE ON
FRIDAY IS QUITE POTENT...AND ALTHOUGH IT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK JUST
NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA...ENOUGH FORCING ALOFT COMBINED WITH SOME
SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT BENEATH IT MAY CREATE SOME
SHOWERS FOR HALLOWEEN NIGHT. COLUMN BECOMES INCREASINGLY SATURATED
FRIDAY EVE AND OVERNIGHT...BUT MOISTURE IS CONFINED BELOW 600MB AND
PWATS STAY RATHER LOW. EXPECT MORE CLOUDS THAN SHOWERS...BUT CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME LIGHT QPF FOR HALLOWEEN FESTIVITIES.
MORE IMPRESSIVELY HOWEVER...WILL BE THE COLD ADVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS BEHIND THIS FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN BEHIND THIS FEATURE BRINGS COLD AIR WITH IT...AS
EVIDENCED BY 925MB TEMPS DROPPING 8-10C DURING EARLY SATURDAY.
THIS COMBINED WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL DROP TEMPS TO NEAR
JANUARY-LEVELS...WITH HIGHS AND LOWS EXPECTED TO BE 10+ DEGREES
BELOW CLIMO...THE FIRST COLD OUTBREAK OF THE YEAR. LOWS SUNDAY
MORNING ARE FORECAST TO BE THE COLDEST OF THE STRETCH...WHEN MANY
LOCATIONS WITHIN THE CWA SHOULD DROP BELOW 40 DEGREES...ALTHOUGH
MONDAY MORNING MAY BE EQUALLY COLD AS RADIATIONAL COOLING BECOMES
MORE SIGNIFICANT THANKS TO LIGHTER WINDS. SOIL TEMPERATURES ARE
STILL QUITE WARM...AND THE WINDS SUNDAY MORNING SHOULD PRECLUDE
ANY FROST LOCALLY. HOWEVER...AS WINDS EASE AND SOIL TEMPS DROP
WITH THE UPCOMING COLD AIR...FROST IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY
MONDAY MORNING. HIGHS FOR THE WKND WILL STRUGGLE TO EVEN REACH 60.
ON MONDAY THE CORE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE...SO
WHILE TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE BEGINNING OF
NOVEMBER...THEY WILL WARM SEVERAL DEGREES FROM WHAT IS ANTICIPATED
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG WILL AFFECT THE MYRTLES AND THE
INLAND TERMINALS THROUGH 13Z...IMPROVING TO VFR BY 14Z. ILM IS UP AT
THIS TIME...BUT COULD HAVE BRIEF FOG/STRATUS AS A LITTLE MIXING
BEGINS. HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL GIVE US SOUTHWEST FLOW
TODAY...WITH A SLIGHT BACKING TO SOUTH NEAR THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...FOG WILL LIKELY RETURN WITH FAVORABLE MOISTURE
PROFILES ONCE AGAIN.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
CHANCE OF EARLY MORNING IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WED AM. SHOWERS/MVFR
POSSIBLE LATE WED/EARLY THU AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM TUESDAY...CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH TO PUSH FURTHER EAST
AND OFFSHORE FROM THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE SFC
PRESSURE PATTERN AND RELAXED GRADIENT WILL YIELD A SSW-SW WIND
AROUND 10 KT TODAY...AND MAINLY SW INCREASING TO 10-15 KT WITH FEW
GUSTS UP TO 20 KT LATE TONIGHT. FOR THE NEAR SHORE WATERS...THE
SEA BREEZE THIS AFTN WILL BACK WINDS TO SSE-S AT 10 TO POSSIBLY 15
KT INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE OVERALL INCREASING SYNOPTIC WINDS AND
GUSTS TONIGHT WILL BE THE RESULT OF A LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY JET
AND A SLIGHTLY TIGHTENED SFC PG. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN 1 TO 2 FT
TODAY...AND BUILD TO NEAR OR AROUND 3 FT TONIGHT. THIS IS IN LINE
WITH WAVEWATCH3 AND LOCALLY PRODUCED SWAN NUMBERS. DOMINANT PERIODS
WILL RANGE 8 TO 9 SECONDS TODAY WITH AN EASTERLY GROUND SWELL
PREVAILING. DOMINANT PERIODS WILL DROP TO 3 TO 5 SECONDS NEARSHORE
THIS AFTN...AND FOR ALL WATERS TONIGHT. THIS IN RESPONSE TO THE SEA
BREEZE THIS AFTN...FOLLOWED BY INCREASING SW WIND DRIVEN WAVES
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE DRIVES RETURN FLOW
ACROSS THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SW WINDS OF 10-15 KTS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE WATERS CAUSING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW...AND THEN
NORTH...BY THURSDAY MORNING WITH SPEEDS STILL AT 10-15 KTS. THESE
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST ON THURSDAY...BUT INCREASE SLOWLY
LATE IN THE PERIOD. SEAS WED/THU WILL BE PRIMARILY WIND-WAVE
DRIVEN...WITH A SW WIND CHOP PRODUCING 2-3 FT SEAS WEDNESDAY.
AFTER A BRIEF DECREASE IN WAVE AMPLITUDES BEHIND THE FRONT...A
NORTHERLY WIND WAVE WILL AMPLIFY DURING THURSDAY...CAUSING SEAS TO
RISE TO 2-4 FT LATE.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...N/NW WINDS FRIDAY WILL BE CONSISTENTLY 10-15
KTS...AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN FROM THE NORTH AND A COLD FRONT
STALLS OFFSHORE. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND THIS WILL PRODUCE VERY GUSTY WINDS BEHIND IT...AND N/NW
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB ABOVE 25 KTS MUCH OF SATURDAY...AND A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS LIKELY. SEAS FRIDAY WILL BE 2-4 FT...WITH
THE HIGHEST WAVES CONFINED NEAR THE 20NM BOUNDARY...BUT WILL RISE
SIGNIFICANTLY ON SATURDAY TO 4-6 FT.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ017-023-
024-032-033-039-053>056.
NC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ087-096-
099-109-110.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
639 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS INTO EARLY
THURSDAY...ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. A SECOND AND
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING
THE FIRST TRULY COLD AIR OF THE SEASON FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 615 AM TUESDAY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO REMAIN IN EFFECT
THRU 9AM FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE ILM CWA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE COASTAL COUNTIES FROM CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD. LATEST SFC OBS
TRENDS...LATEST IR 11-3.9 MICRON CHANNEL SATELLITE IMAGERY
TRENDS AND THE LATEST HRRR MODEL PROJECTIONS...ALL INDICATE THE
AREAS TO WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG ACROSS THE FA TO CONTINUE THROUGH
DAYBREAK. THE FOG IS QUITE SHALLOW VIA VARIOUS MODEL SOUNDING
DATA IN THE VERTICAL...AND SHOULD ALL DISSIPATE BY 1300Z.
A FULL DAYS WORTH OF INSOLATION IS IN STORE FOR THE FA AS THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS PUSHES OFF THE CAROLINA COASTS DURING TODAY.
WITH 500MB HEIGHTS PROGGED IN THE 580S AND CORRESPONDING 1K-5H
THICKNESSES IN THE 570S...WIDESPREAD 80S FOR MAX TEMPS TODAY ARE
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. A SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR BY
MIDDAY WITH SOME INLAND PENETRATION THIS AFTN...THUS LIMITING THE
80+ DEGREE HIGHS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. INLAND WILL BE A
DIFFERENT STORY WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT SW WINDS WITH MIXING IN THE
LOW LEVELS LIMITED...MAX TEMPS COULD APPROACH RECORD HIGHS THIS
AFTERNOON.
RECORD HIGHS TODAY...TUESDAY OCT 28 2014...
FLORENCE RECORD IS 86 SET IN 1991.
NORTH MYRTLE BEACH RECORD IS 83 SET IN 1991...COULD BE REACHED IF
THE SEA BREEZE IS DELAYED.
WILMINGTON RECORD IS 87 SET IN 1984...WILL LIKELY FALL SHORT.
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS PROGGED TO MOVE FURTHER EAST AND OFFSHORE
FROM THE CAROLINA COASTS TONIGHT...ALLOWING INCREASING SW WINDS
TO SET UP ALOFT. MODELS HINT AT A 25 TO 30 KT LOW LEVEL JET TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE FA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. NAMBUFR HOURLY
SOUNDINGS ILLUSTRATE THIS JET AND ALSO THE LIMITED MOISTURE FROM
THE SFC UP TO THE BASE OF THIS LOW LEVEL JET. AS A RESULT...SFC
FOG FORMATION...IF ANY...WILL BE PATCHY AND AT A MINIMUM.
HOWEVER...A LOW STRATUS CLOUD DECK REMAINS POSSIBLE AND THEREFORE
WILL NOT GO COMPLETELY CLEAR FOR SKY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
UPSTREAM THIN CI WILL LIKELY SPREAD OVERHEAD...MAINLY ACROSS THE
ILM NC COUNTIES. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOP
OVER THE GULF STREAM LATE TONIGHT...WITH ANY ISOLATED NOCTURNAL
SHRA REMAINING OFFSHORE. FOR TONIGHT...KEPT MINS CLOSER TO THE
HIGHER END OF THE AVBL MODEL MOS GUIDANCE...AND WENT EVEN A FEW
DEGREES HIER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST DUE TO ACTIVE ONSHORE SSW-
SW WINDS HAVING CROSSED SSTS STILL IN THE 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...ONE LAST WARM DAY WEDNESDAY BEFORE A MAJOR
PATTERN SHIFT OCCURS ACROSS THE EAST. HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL
ONCE AGAIN COMBINE WITH RAISED THICKNESSES BENEATH AN UPPER RIDGE
TO DRIVE WARM ADVECTION AND CAUSE MAX TEMPS TO SOAR INTO THE 80S.
RECORD HIGHS WILL BE APPROACHED...ESPECIALLY INLAND SINCE COOLER
OCEAN TEMPS WILL KEEP HIGHS AT THE COAST LOWER...BUT A WARM DAY
EVERYWHERE IS EXPECTED. THIS WILL BE THE LAST OF THE WARMTH FOR
SOME TIME HOWEVER.
COLD FRONT RACES EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CROSSING OFFSHORE BY
THURSDAY MORNING. THIS IS PUSHED BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND
ALTHOUGH THE FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY AND PWATS RISE ONLY
MARGINALLY...SOME QPF IS EXPECTED WITHIN SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT.
WHILE THE RAIN IS NEEDED LOCALLY...THE FORECAST LOW QPF WILL BE
ONLY MARGINALLY BENEFICIAL. STILL...THE FRONT SIGNALS A
SIGNIFICANT AIR-MASS CHANGE AND TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL BE 10-15
DEGREES COOLER THAN THE HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL STALL
JUST OFFSHORE AS A SECOND SHORTWAVE DIVES INTO THE DEVELOPING
FULL-LATITUDE TROUGH...AND THIS WILL KEEP AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY...PRIMARILY NEAR THE COAST. IT
WILL NOT BE A WASH OUT BY ANY STRETCH...BUT SIGNIFICANT CLOUD
COVER IS EXPECTED.
MINS WED NIGHT AHEAD OF/ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL BE IN THE MID
50S...FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 THURSDAY NIGHT
BEHIND THE FRONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL EXIST ON
HALLOWEEN...BUT THE REAL STORY OF THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE FIRST
TRULY COLD AIR OF THE SEASON.
LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST WILL REASSERT ITSELF AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE ON
FRIDAY IS QUITE POTENT...AND ALTHOUGH IT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK JUST
NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA...ENOUGH FORCING ALOFT COMBINED WITH SOME
SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT BENEATH IT MAY CREATE SOME
SHOWERS FOR HALLOWEEN NIGHT. COLUMN BECOMES INCREASINGLY SATURATED
FRIDAY EVE AND OVERNIGHT...BUT MOISTURE IS CONFINED BELOW 600MB AND
PWATS STAY RATHER LOW. EXPECT MORE CLOUDS THAN SHOWERS...BUT CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME LIGHT QPF FOR HALLOWEEN FESTIVITIES.
MORE IMPRESSIVELY HOWEVER...WILL BE THE COLD ADVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS BEHIND THIS FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN BEHIND THIS FEATURE BRINGS COLD AIR WITH IT...AS
EVIDENCED BY 925MB TEMPS DROPPING 8-10C DURING EARLY SATURDAY.
THIS COMBINED WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL DROP TEMPS TO NEAR
JANUARY-LEVELS...WITH HIGHS AND LOWS EXPECTED TO BE 10+ DEGREES
BELOW CLIMO...THE FIRST COLD OUTBREAK OF THE YEAR. LOWS SUNDAY
MORNING ARE FORECAST TO BE THE COLDEST OF THE STRETCH...WHEN MANY
LOCATIONS WITHIN THE CWA SHOULD DROP BELOW 40 DEGREES...ALTHOUGH
MONDAY MORNING MAY BE EQUALLY COLD AS RADIATIONAL COOLING BECOMES
MORE SIGNIFICANT THANKS TO LIGHTER WINDS. SOIL TEMPERATURES ARE
STILL QUITE WARM...AND THE WINDS SUNDAY MORNING SHOULD PRECLUDE
ANY FROST LOCALLY. HOWEVER...AS WINDS EASE AND SOIL TEMPS DROP
WITH THE UPCOMING COLD AIR...FROST IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY
MONDAY MORNING. HIGHS FOR THE WKND WILL STRUGGLE TO EVEN REACH 60.
ON MONDAY THE CORE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE...SO
WHILE TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE BEGINNING OF
NOVEMBER...THEY WILL WARM SEVERAL DEGREES FROM WHAT IS ANTICIPATED
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS HAVE ALLOWED PATCHY TO
AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE CWA...PRIMARILY AT THE SOUTHERN
COASTAL TERMINALS. VSBYS ACROSS THE ILM SC TERMINALS HAVE DROPPED
TO DENSE FOG AND EXPECT THAT TO REMAIN THE CASE FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE PRE-DAWN TUE HOURS. LOOKING AT DENSE FOG TO FINALLY
OVERTAKE KLBT PRIOR TO DAYBREAK TUE...WITH KILM POSSIBLY TO REMAIN
DENSE FOG FREE. LATEST HRRR MODEL ILLUSTRATES ALL TERMINALS TO
EXPERIENCE VSBY AT OR BELOW 1/2 MILE EARLY THIS AM...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF KILM. WILL FOLLOW THE HRRR OUTPUT THIS AM GIVEN ITS
OVERALL PERFORMANCE WITH IDENTIFYING THE FOG DEVELOPMENT AND ITS
PROGRESSION FROM LAST EVENING. THE FG/BR SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY
BETWEEN 12Z AND 1330Z...WITH VFR PREVAILING AT ALL TERMINALS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. WITH THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHING OFFSHORE...CALM WINDS EARLY AM WILL BECOME SW AROUND 5 KT.
EXPECT THE DIURNALLY INDUCED SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP WITH WINDS
BACKING TO SSE-SSW AOB 10 KT AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS FOR THIS
AFTN AND EARLY EVENING.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
CHANCE OF EARLY MORNING IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WED AM. SHOWERS/MVFR
POSSIBLE LATE WED/EARLY THU AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM TUESDAY...CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH TO PUSH FURTHER EAST
AND OFFSHORE FROM THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE SFC
PRESSURE PATTERN AND RELAXED GRADIENT WILL YIELD A SSW-SW WIND
AROUND 10 KT TODAY...AND MAINLY SW INCREASING TO 10-15 KT WITH FEW
GUSTS UP TO 20 KT LATE TONIGHT. FOR THE NEAR SHORE WATERS...THE
SEA BREEZE THIS AFTN WILL BACK WINDS TO SSE-S AT 10 TO POSSIBLY 15
KT INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE OVERALL INCREASING SYNOPTIC WINDS AND
GUSTS TONIGHT WILL BE THE RESULT OF A LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY JET
AND A SLIGHTLY TIGHTENED SFC PG. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN 1 TO 2 FT
TODAY...AND BUILD TO NEAR OR AROUND 3 FT TONIGHT. THIS IS IN LINE
WITH WAVEWATCH3 AND LOCALLY PRODUCED SWAN NUMBERS. DOMINANT PERIODS
WILL RANGE 8 TO 9 SECONDS TODAY WITH AN EASTERLY GROUND SWELL
PREVAILING. DOMINANT PERIODS WILL DROP TO 3 TO 5 SECONDS NEARSHORE
THIS AFTN...AND FOR ALL WATERS TONIGHT. THIS IN RESPONSE TO THE SEA
BREEZE THIS AFTN...FOLLOWED BY INCREASING SW WIND DRIVEN WAVES
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE DRIVES RETURN FLOW
ACROSS THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SW WINDS OF 10-15 KTS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE WATERS CAUSING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW...AND THEN
NORTH...BY THURSDAY MORNING WITH SPEEDS STILL AT 10-15 KTS. THESE
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST ON THURSDAY...BUT INCREASE SLOWLY
LATE IN THE PERIOD. SEAS WED/THU WILL BE PRIMARILY WIND-WAVE
DRIVEN...WITH A SW WIND CHOP PRODUCING 2-3 FT SEAS WEDNESDAY.
AFTER A BRIEF DECREASE IN WAVE AMPLITUDES BEHIND THE FRONT...A
NORTHERLY WIND WAVE WILL AMPLIFY DURING THURSDAY...CAUSING SEAS TO
RISE TO 2-4 FT LATE.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...N/NW WINDS FRIDAY WILL BE CONSISTENTLY 10-15
KTS...AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN FROM THE NORTH AND A COLD FRONT
STALLS OFFSHORE. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND THIS WILL PRODUCE VERY GUSTY WINDS BEHIND IT...AND N/NW
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB ABOVE 25 KTS MUCH OF SATURDAY...AND A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS LIKELY. SEAS FRIDAY WILL BE 2-4 FT...WITH
THE HIGHEST WAVES CONFINED NEAR THE 20NM BOUNDARY...BUT WILL RISE
SIGNIFICANTLY ON SATURDAY TO 4-6 FT.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ017-023-
024-032-033-039-053>056.
NC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ087-096-
099-109-110.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
916 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...AND AN END OF THE WARM TEMPERATURES. COOLER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH EVEN
COLDER CONDITIONS BEHIND ANOTHER COLD FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS ACROSS INDIANA WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY HAS ALREADY GOTTEN IN WESTERN
COUNTIES BUT WITH A WEAKENING TREND. MOST PLACES SHOULD STILL GET
MEASURABLE RAIN ALTHOUGH IT MAY NOT BE MUCH ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
I-70. LITTLE INSTABILITY AT THIS POINT BUT HAVE ALLOW FOR SOME
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE SPED UP TIMING OF PRECIPITATION
BY SEVERAL HOURS FOLLOWING TRENDS IN RECENT HRRR AND RAP RUNS. SO
IT APPEARS THAT BULK OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY AROUND 20Z. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE LAGGING THIS ACTIVITY
BY SEVERAL HOURS AND THERE WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY OF STORMS
DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT BEFORE IT EXITS THE REGION LATE TODAY.
APPEARS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE MUCH BEYOND CURRENT VALUES
IN THE WEST WITH THICKER CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION MOVING IN.
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT READINGS COULD DROP A FEW DEGREES AND THEN
REBOUND BETWEEN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ENDING AND THE COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH. STILL A CHANCE FOR EASTERN SITES TO WARM A LITTLE
INTO MIDDAY DESPITE A GOOD DEAL OF MID TO HIGH CLOUD COVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT.
MIN TEMPS WERE LOWERED A FEW DEGREES FOR WEDNESDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEASTERN CWA. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE WEST OF THE AREA...INFLUENCING THE
WEATHER ENOUGH TO KEEP CONDITIONS DRY. HOWEVER...THE CONTINUED
COLD ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING...ESPECIALLY
WITH OCCASIONAL CLOUDS (ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE GREAT LAKES).
WITH CALMING WINDS ON THURSDAY MORNING...FROST IS LOOKING
INCREASINGLY LIKELY...EVEN THOUGH THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT
CLOUDS COULD BE BUILDING IN BY MORNING. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN
DECREASED A COUPLE DEGREES HERE AS WELL.
THE NEXT BIG CHANGE IN AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE ON
FRIDAY...AND IT WILL AGAIN BE A CHANGE IN THE COOLER DIRECTION.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A STRONGER SHORT WAVE WILL ROTATE DOWN ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES AND PIVOT THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. WHILE THE STRONGEST FORCING WILL GENERALLY REMAIN TO OUR
NORTH AND EAST...WE SHOULD STILL AT LEAST SEE SOME SOME SCATTERED
SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH THE DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS ABOUT THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF OUR FA. STRONG CA WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE SHORT
WAVE...PUSHING DOWN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS LATER IN
THE DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA. IT LOOKS
LIKE THE COLDEST AIR WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL ONCE THE DEEPER
MOISTURE HAS SHIFTED OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY EVENING. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND THE COBB METHOD ARE BOTH SUGGESTING THAT THE LOWER
LEVELS WILL REMAIN WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP PCPN ALL LIQUID THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THAT BEING SAID...IF THE SHOWERS BECOME A BIT
CONVECTIVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...SUPPOSE A FEW WET SNOW FLAKES
COULD MIX IN LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST. IN CONTINUED
CAA...EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR OUR FIRST WIDESPREAD FREEZE FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING DOWN INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING
WELL BELOW NORMAL. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES ARE ONLY SUPPORTING HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ON SATURDAY. WILL NOT GO QUITE THAT
COLD AT THIS POINT BUT WILL NUDGE DOWN HIGHS A BIT...GENERALLY INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 40S. MODELS ARE A LITTLE FASTER NOW SHIFTING THE
HIGH OFF TO THE EAST SO IT MAY BE CENTERED JUST OFF TO OUR EAST BY
SUNDAY MORNING. WE SHOULD STILL HAVE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THOUGH AND
LIGHT WINDS...SO WOULD EXPECT SATURDAY NIGHT TO BE OUR COLDEST NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD THEN
SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH PUSHES
OFF TO THE EAST AND WE GET INTO RETURN FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST WILL PUSH EAST
THROUGH THE REGION. THIS FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT. LOOKING AT MANY MODEL
SOLUTIONS...IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE APPROXIMATELY A 4 HOUR
WINDOW OF PCPN AT ALL TAF SITES. THINK WE WILL SEE AT LEAST SOME
MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES WITH SHOWERS. THREAT OF THUNDER IS LOW
ENOUGH TO JUST MENTION AS VCTS AT THIS TIME. THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THREAT NEAR THE EASTERN TAF SITES OF KCMH/KLCK
WHERE THE LATER ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR A LITTLE BIT
MORE DIURNAL INSTABILITY. GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
DIMINISH AND SHIFT TO THE WEST AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. MUCH
DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION AS WELL...ALLOWING VFR
CONDITIONS TO RETURN RATHER QUICKLY. FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS
THE FRONT CONTINUES EAST/SOUTHEAST...JUST SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED.
ON WEDNESDAY...ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL ROTATE
EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGION. SOME
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED WITH INCREASING STRATOCUMULUS/CUMULUS
CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY.
.OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...HICKMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
655 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...AND AN END OF THE WARM TEMPERATURES. COOLER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH EVEN
COLDER CONDITIONS BEHIND ANOTHER COLD FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NORTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN. THIS LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT WRAPS NORTHEAST AROUND A
LARGE MID-LEVEL TROUGH. TRAILING FROM THIS SURFACE LOW IS A
LENGTHY COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY EXTENDING THROUGH CHICAGO...ST
LOUIS...AND JUST NORTH OF DALLAS. ALTHOUGH THERE IS A MARKED
CHANGE IN AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT...THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS IT MOVES EAST. IN FACT...THE WIND SHIFT WILL
BECOME LESS DRASTIC WITH TIME...WITH THE EVENTUAL CHANGE IN
DIRECTION OVER THE ILN CWA ONLY EXPECTED TO BE SOUTHWESTERLY TO
WESTERLY. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT IS WEAKENING...AND CONVERGENCE IS
SOMEWHAT MODEST...THERE REMAINS STRONG MODEL AGREEMENT THAT
RAIN WILL FALL ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...HOWEVER...MAY BE QUITE LIGHT IN SOME
PLACES. RECENT HRRR RUNS SUGGEST THAT THE COVERAGE WILL BE THAT OF
BROKEN BANDS OF PRECIPITATION. THIS CREATED A CHALLENGE WITH THE
POPS...AS THERE MAY BE SOME DRY SPOTS MIXED WITHIN THE AREA OF
RAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SINCE MEASURABLE RAIN IS EXPECTED
EVERYWHERE...POPS ARE AT 100 PERCENT...BUT QPF AMOUNTS ARE LIGHT.
A FAIRLY POTENT LOW-LEVEL JET IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER THE ILN
FORECAST AREA...WITH THE KILN VWP SHOWING WINDS OF OVER 50 KNOTS
JUST 2000 FEET ABOVE THE GROUND. OCCASIONAL GUSTS ARE REACHING THE
SURFACE...AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY AS THE ATMOSPHERE MIXES
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A FEW GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS MAY BE
POSSIBLE IN THE WARM AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...THE
STRONGEST WINDS JUST ALOFT WILL ACTUALLY ALREADY BE MOVING OUT OF
THE AREA BY LATE MORNING. BY LATE MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON...WEAK INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. A MODEL COMPROMISE WOULD SUGGEST AROUND
500 J/KG OF MIXED LAYER CAPE...BUT IN A NARROW PROFILE LIMITED BY
RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE LAPSE RATES. SPC SREF PROBABILITIES INDICATE
ZERO CHANCE OF CAPE > 1000 J/KG...AND AROUND 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF
EVEN GETTING TO 500 J/KG. THUNDER IS EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED AND
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BANDS OF PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THOUGH OBVIOUSLY BECOMING A LITTLE MORE LIKELY AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. ATMOSPHERIC WIND SHEAR IS MARGINALLY IMPRESSIVE IN
TERMS OF NUMBERS (45 KNOTS 0-6KM / 30 KNOTS 0-3KM)...BUT NOT
IMPRESSIVE AT ALL IN TERMS OF ORIENTATION (UNIDIRECTIONAL AND
MOSTLY PARALLEL TO THE FRONT). THIS ADDS UP TO JUST A VERY SMALL
CHANCE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...AND LIMITED TO JUST THE NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY / SCIOTO VALLEY REGIONS. SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS
UNLIKELY...BUT IF STORMS DO DEVELOP IN THIS REGION (AS
HRRR/WRF-NMM PROJECTIONS INDICATE)...FORWARD PROPAGATING LINE
SEGMENTS COULD PRODUCE STRONG WINDS.
WITH THE FRONT COMING INTO THE AREA...IT IS NO SURPRISE THAT THE
MAX TEMPERATURE GRID WILL USE A SIGNIFICANT GRADIENT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BEGIN THE MORNING SIGNIFICANTLY AND ANOMALOUSLY WARM...ABOUT
AS WARM AS EVER OBSERVED DURING AN OVERNIGHT PERIOD IN LATE
OCTOBER. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES (UPPER 70S) ARE EXPECTED IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN CWA...WHERE WARM ADVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT FOR SEVERAL HOURS. MAX TEMPS MAY VERY WELL BE SET DURING
THE MORNING IN THE NORTHWESTERN CWA...WHERE THE FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH EARLIEST IN THE DAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
PRECIPITATION SHOULD END QUICKLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AS A
COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. MIN TEMPS
WERE LOWERED A FEW DEGREES FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN
THE NORTHEASTERN CWA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE WEST
OF THE AREA...INFLUENCING THE WEATHER ENOUGH TO KEEP CONDITIONS
DRY. HOWEVER...THE CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM WARMING...ESPECIALLY WITH OCCASIONAL CLOUDS (ESPECIALLY
CLOSER TO THE GREAT LAKES). WITH CALMING WINDS ON THURSDAY
MORNING...FROST IS LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY...EVEN THOUGH THERE
IS SOME CONCERN THAT CLOUDS COULD BE BUILDING IN BY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN DECREASED A COUPLE DEGREES HERE AS WELL.
THE NEXT BIG CHANGE IN AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE ON
FRIDAY...AND IT WILL AGAIN BE A CHANGE IN THE COOLER DIRECTION.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A STRONGER SHORT WAVE WILL ROTATE DOWN ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES AND PIVOT THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. WHILE THE STRONGEST FORCING WILL GENERALLY REMAIN TO OUR
NORTH AND EAST...WE SHOULD STILL AT LEAST SEE SOME SOME SCATTERED
SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH THE DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS ABOUT THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF OUR FA. STRONG CA WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE SHORT
WAVE...PUSHING DOWN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS LATER IN
THE DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA. IT LOOKS
LIKE THE COLDEST AIR WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL ONCE THE DEEPER
MOISTURE HAS SHIFTED OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY EVENING. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND THE COBB METHOD ARE BOTH SUGGESTING THAT THE LOWER
LEVELS WILL REMAIN WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP PCPN ALL LIQUID THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THAT BEING SAID...IF THE SHOWERS BECOME A BIT
CONVECTIVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...SUPPOSE A FEW WET SNOW FLAKES
COULD MIX IN LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST. IN CONTINUED
CAA...EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR OUR FIRST WIDESPREAD FREEZE FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING DOWN INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING
WELL BELOW NORMAL. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES ARE ONLY SUPPORTING HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ON SATURDAY. WILL NOT GO QUITE THAT
COLD AT THIS POINT BUT WILL NUDGE DOWN HIGHS A BIT...GENERALLY INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 40S. MODELS ARE A LITTLE FASTER NOW SHIFTING THE
HIGH OFF TO THE EAST SO IT MAY BE CENTERED JUST OFF TO OUR EAST BY
SUNDAY MORNING. WE SHOULD STILL HAVE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THOUGH AND
LIGHT WINDS...SO WOULD EXPECT SATURDAY NIGHT TO BE OUR COLDEST NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD THEN
SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH PUSHES
OFF TO THE EAST AND WE GET INTO RETURN FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST WILL PUSH EAST
THROUGH THE REGION. THIS FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT. LOOKING AT MANY MODEL
SOLUTIONS...IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE APPROXIMATELY A 4 HOUR
WINDOW OF PCPN AT ALL TAF SITES. THINK WE WILL SEE AT LEAST SOME
MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES WITH SHOWERS. THREAT OF THUNDER IS LOW
ENOUGH TO JUST MENTION AS VCTS AT THIS TIME. THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THREAT NEAR THE EASTERN TAF SITES OF KCMH/KLCK
WHERE THE LATER ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR A LITTLE BIT
MORE DIURNAL INSTABILITY. GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
DIMINISH AND SHIFT TO THE WEST AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. MUCH
DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION AS WELL...ALLOWING VFR
CONDITIONS TO RETURN RATHER QUICKLY. FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS
THE FRONT CONTINUES EAST/SOUTHEAST...JUST SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED.
ON WEDNESDAY...ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL ROTATE
EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGION. SOME
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED WITH INCREASING STRATOCUMULUS/CUMULUS
CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY.
.OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...HICKMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
1223 PM CDT Tue Oct 28 2014
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 228 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014
Recent water vapor satellite imagery depicts a strong upper wave
rotating through the main upper trough across northern Kansas. A few
bands of mainly weak radar returns have passed through much of the
local area in recent hours via rather strong upper level
frontogenesis, but quite dry low levels limiting this to very light
amounts (if any) reaching the ground. NAM and RAP indicate both
forcing and moisture aloft diminishing through sunrise and these
processes seem to be underway per latest IR and radar trends.
Surface high pressure was building into the central High Plains with
temps there around the freezing mark under mainly clear skies and
light winds. It appears radar-produced low-level winds are being
impacted by bird migration with speeds likely 10-20kt too high.
Cold air advection becomes rather modest today, but much cooler air
than recent days will keep highs in the lower to mid 60s in decent
mixing. There should be a second round of high cloud in the morning
to early afternoon, but the late afternoon and nighttime hours
should be clear as the surface high comes into the Central Plains.
Expect some modification of the upstream airmass today, where local
temps have been well above normal for several days. Lows will be
kept above freezing, with slightly lower values likely in protected
areas. Have boosted frost wording but rather dry airmass and the
very warm ground may keep widespread frost in check.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 228 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014
A cool start expected for Wednesday with morning frost possible
across much of the forecast area. Temperatures still should make
it to lower to middle 60s as southerly winds slowly move into the
area from the west on the back side of the surface high. Some
amplified mixing and southerly flow comes through with the clipper
along and just to our north early Thursday, bringing mixed
overnight low temperatures in the 40s. Despite cooler air moving
driving southward into the northern and central plains for
Thursday, our area is on the leading edge of the colder air and
should mix to another day in the 60s before the colder
temperatures make it southward.
Again incoming high pressure and northerly winds through the night
Thursday night into Friday look to keep lows from tanking too far,
but do have lows in the 30s north to near 40 south. Sunshine
should help get temperatures into the 50s for Friday afternoon.
The surface high moves into the upper Midwest late Friday into
early Saturday, and keeps push of colder air over eastern Kansas
with lows forecast in the 30s. Another quick return of an upper
ridge and southerly surface winds should bring highs back into the
50s for Saturday.
How the next round of upper trofs moves out of the Rockies for
Sunday into Monday varies within the extended models. Could see
some warm air advection showers early Sunday but chances too low
for mention this early. Both EC and GFS suggest better chances for
rain come later Sunday into Monday and will keep grids as such,
but smaller scale and progressive nature of the waves will likely
change timing and probabilities as forecast draws closer.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014
VFR conditions are expected through the period. Winds will remain
light from the northwest under 10 kts, becoming light and variable
as high pressure slowly builds into eastern Kansas. Soundings are
not favorable for fog development given dry low levels.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...53
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
700 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014
.SYNOPSIS.../ISSUED AT 418 PM/
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN ONTARIO WILL LIFT INTO
NORTHERN QUEBEC TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE LOW WILL DRAW COLDER AIR
INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL BE QUITE
GUSTY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUING WEDNESDAY. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES BY HALLOWEEN
MORNING...SENDING TEMPERATURES PLUNGING AND BRINGING A ROUND OF RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM.../ISSUED AT 418 PM/...TONIGHT
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER WRN
LAKE SUPERIOR WITH A PROMINENT DRY SLOT BRINGING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...DEEP WRAP-
AROUND MOISTURE AND COLDER AIR INTO UPPER MI AND NRN WI WITH 850 MB
TEMPS IN THE -1C TO -3C RANGE WAS MOVING TOWARD THE AREA.
TONIGHT...EXPECT CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY INCREASE INTO THIS
EVENING...PER SATELLITE TRENDS AND MODELS 900-850 MB RH FCST.
AS THE COLDER AIR AND DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVE AFT 06Z WITH 850/700
TEMPS DROPPING TO NEAR -4C/-10C...SCT/NMRS LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS FAVORED BY
UPSLOPE WRLY FLOW. OVER ERN UPPER MI...WITH WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS
FALLING BELOW 1400 FT AGL...A MIX WITH SNOW WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
CLOUDS AND PERSISTENT WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING OFF TOO
FAR WITH MIN READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S INLAND AND LOWER 40S CLOSER
TO THE GREAT LAKES.
WEDNESDAY...PCPN CHANCES PEAK BY MID MORNING WITH COVERAGE
DIMINISHING DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE 700 MB THERMAL TROUGH
DEPARTS ALONG WITH THE MORE FAVORABLE 850/700 MB MOISTURE AND A WEAK
SFC RIDGE BUILDS IN. UNDER CLOUDY SKIES...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY
REACH THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014
...MUCH COLDER WEATHER WITH A POSSIBLE MINOR SNOWFALL TO CLOSE OUT
OCTOBER...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...A RELATIVELY TRANQUIL START TO THE
FORECAST PERIOD IS EXPECTED AS THE AREA SITS UNDER A BENIGN REGION OF
A BROAD MID-LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC. AN INACTIVE
UPPER-LEVEL JET PATTERN COMBINED WITH MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES DO NOT
SUPPORT ANY LARGE-SCALE LIFT THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...LAKE-H8 DELTA TEMPS OF 12 TO 14C WILL SUPPORT A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF LINGERING LAKE EFFECT PRECIP OFF LAKE MI FOR THE NW WIND
BELTS. LOW-LEVEL TEMPS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL RAIN
INITIALLY IN THE EVENING...BUT A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH CONTINUED
LOW-LEVEL CAA AND LOWERING SFC WET BULB TEMPS. THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE
THE SAME...THOUGH ANY SNOW SHOULD TRANSITION BACK TO RAIN FOR ALL
AREAS WITH DAYTIME HEATING. OVERALL...IT WILL JUST BE A CLOUDY DAY
WITH WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 40S.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE WEATHER
WILL BE IN THE WORKS BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG MID-LEVEL
TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE TROUGH
AXIS WILL REACH WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AROUND 03Z FRIDAY AS A SFC LOW
BEGINS DEVELOPING OVER THE CWA. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN HOW
THE MODELS HANDLE THIS DEVELOPMENT. THE ECMWF SHOWS A STRONGER
TROUGH...AND THUS A QUICKER DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW OVER THE STRAITS.
THE MODEL SOLUTIONS DO BEGIN TO CONVERGE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH A
1009 MB LOW JUST NORTH OF LAKE ERIE AND A 1035 MB HIGH ACROSS MN.
VERY STRONG MID-LEVEL Q-VECTOR CONV PAIRED WITH A POTENT UPPER-LEVEL
PV ANOMALY WILL SUPPORT DEEP LIFT ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY MORNING.
CONTINUED STRONG LOW-LEVEL CAA AND MID-LEVEL COOLING WILL BRING
WET-BULB ZERO TEMPS TO UNDER 1KFT AGL BY 09Z FRI ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...AND 12Z FRI NEAR THE SHORES. WITH THAT SAID...ACCUMULATING
SNOW APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS AT LEAST THE HIGH TERRAIN FRIDAY MORNING.
AMPLE LIFT WITHIN THE DGZ WILL SUPPORT DECENT SNOW RATIOS AND
MODERATE SNOWFALL RATES. GIVEN THE TIME OF DAY...SNOWFALL RATES
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME WARMER ROAD SFC TEMPS AND RESULT IN
SOME SLUSH ON LESS TRAVELED ROADS. OVERALL...AROUND AN INCH OF WET
SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH A DUSTING POSSIBLY
REACHING THE SHORELINES.
TO ADD TO THE PRECIP...THE STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING
INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS THOUGH THE DAY. THE GRADIENT FLOW WILL BE
ASSISTED BY A STRONG ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT DUE TO THE DEEPENING LOW
OVER THE AREA. WIDESPREAD 15 TO 25 MPH WINDS LOOK POSSIBLE...WITH
SOME GUIDANCE INDICATING GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35 MPH DURING THE LATE
MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON.
DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL EXIT DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE
TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS LOWER MI. FOCUS TURNS TO
LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL AS H8 TEMPS AROUND -10C PRODUCE DELTA TEMPS OF
AT LEAST 15C. DUE NORTH WINDS THROUGH H8 SHOULD KEEP ALL BUT THE FAR
WEST AND FAR EAST CWA CLEAR OF ANY APPRECIABLE LAKE-EFFECT RAIN/SNOW.
FRIDAY NIGHT THOUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE SFC HIGH OVER MN FRIDAY
WILL REACH THE CWA BY SATURDAY EVENING. AN INFLUX OF MUCH DRIER
LOW-LEVEL AIR WILL CUTOFF LAKE EFFECT PRECIP FRIDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY
NIGHT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE QUITE CHILLY DEPENDING ON HOW QUICK
LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS EXIT THE AREA. AM NOT CONFIDENT ON WIDESPREAD
CLEARING...BUT SOME AREAS SHOULD SEE ENOUGH REDUCTION IN CLOUD COVER
TO ALLOW FOR RAPID COOLING LATE IN THE NIGHT. GIVEN STARTING TEMPS
IN THE 30S ON FRIDAY...SHOULD SEE LOWS WELL INTO THE 20S INLAND.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE SFC
RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE CWA AND A MID-LEVEL RIDGE APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. SATURDAY NIGHT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT...BUT LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL COMMENCE OVERNIGHT WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE SFC RIDGE.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE WORKS OVER THE CWA BY
SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING QUIET CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MAY
BE ENOUGH TO INDUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA...BUT
FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS BY WAY OF A JET AXIS AND H5 TROUGH
AXIS STAY TO THE NORTHWEST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014
AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL WRAP BACK INTO NRN MICHIGAN TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY AS A REINFORCING COLD FRONT SWEEPS THRU THE AREA.
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERIODICALLY DROP TO MVFR AS
SCT/NMRS LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS IMPACT NW LWR MICHIGAN TAF
SITES TONIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY. SW WINDS GUSTING TO 15 TO 25 KTS
TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TO THE NW ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
&&
.MARINE.../ISSUED AT 418 PM/
ALTHOUGH PEAK WINDS SHOULD REMAIN JUST SHY OF GALE CRITERIA FOR MOST
AREAS TONIGHT...THOUGH AS IS TYPICAL IN THESE SITUATIONS...A COUPLE
OF GALE GUSTS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE AT TIMES. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE WATERS. THOSE LIGHT WINDS
CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY BUT WITH ANOTHER BURST OF HIGHER WINDS
EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS SOME VERY COLD AIR DROPS INTO
THE REGION.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LHZ345-346-349.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LHZ347-348.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ323-341.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ342-344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ322.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ321.
&&
$$
AVIATION...MR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
420 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014
.SYNOPSIS.../ISSUED AT 418 PM/
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN ONTARIO WILL LIFT INTO
NORTHERN QUEBEC TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE LOW WILL DRAW COLDER AIR
INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL BE QUITE
GUSTY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUING WEDNESDAY. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES BY HALLOWEEN
MORNING...SENDING TEMPERATURES PLUNGING AND BRINGING A ROUND OF RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM.../ISSUED AT 418 PM/...TONIGHT
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER WRN
LAKE SUPERIOR WITH A PROMINENT DRY SLOT BRINGING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...DEEP WRAP-
AROUND MOISTURE AND COLDER AIR INTO UPPER MI AND NRN WI WITH 850 MB
TEMPS IN THE -1C TO -3C RANGE WAS MOVING TOWARD THE AREA.
TONIGHT...EXPECT CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY INCREASE INTO THIS
EVENING...PER SATELLITE TRENDS AND MODELS 900-850 MB RH FCST.
AS THE COLDER AIR AND DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVE AFT 06Z WITH 850/700
TEMPS DROPPING TO NEAR -4C/-10C...SCT/NMRS LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...ESEPCIALLY FOR LOCATIONS FAVORED BY
UPSLOPE WRLY FLOW. OVER ERN UPPER MI...WITH WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS
FALLING BELOW 1400 FT AGL...A MIX WITH SNOW WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
CLOUDS AND PERSISTENT WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING OFF TOO
FAR WITH MIN READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S INLAND AND LOWER 40S CLOSER
TO THE GREAT LAKES.
WEDNESDAY...PCPN CHANCES PEAK BY MID MORNING WITH COVERAGE
DIMINISHING DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE 700 MB THERMAL TROUGH
DEPARTS ALONG WITH THE MORE FAVORABLE 850/700 MB MOISTURE AND A WEAK
SFC RIDGE BUILDS IN. UNDER CLOUDY SKIES...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY
REACH THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014
...MUCH COLDER WEATHER WITH A POSSIBLE MINOR SNOWFALL TO CLOSE OUT
OCTOBER...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...A RELATIVELY TRANQUIL START TO THE
FORECAST PERIOD IS EXPECTED AS THE AREA SITS UNDER A BENIGN REGION OF
A BROAD MID-LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC. AN INACTIVE
UPPER-LEVEL JET PATTERN COMBINED WITH MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES DO NOT
SUPPORT ANY LARGE-SCALE LIFT THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...LAKE-H8 DELTA TEMPS OF 12 TO 14C WILL SUPPORT A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF LINGERING LAKE EFFECT PRECIP OFF LAKE MI FOR THE NW WIND
BELTS. LOW-LEVEL TEMPS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL RAIN
INITIALLY IN THE EVENING...BUT A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH CONTINUED
LOW-LEVEL CAA AND LOWERING SFC WET BULB TEMPS. THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE
THE SAME...THOUGH ANY SNOW SHOULD TRANSITION BACK TO RAIN FOR ALL
AREAS WITH DAYTIME HEATING. OVERALL...IT WILL JUST BE A CLOUDY DAY
WITH WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 40S.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE WEATHER
WILL BE IN THE WORKS BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG MID-LEVEL
TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE TROUGH
AXIS WILL REACH WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AROUND 03Z FRIDAY AS A SFC LOW
BEGINS DEVELOPING OVER THE CWA. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN HOW
THE MODELS HANDLE THIS DEVELOPMENT. THE ECMWF SHOWS A STRONGER
TROUGH...AND THUS A QUICKER DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW OVER THE STRAITS.
THE MODEL SOLUTIONS DO BEGIN TO CONVERGE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH A
1009 MB LOW JUST NORTH OF LAKE ERIE AND A 1035 MB HIGH ACROSS MN.
VERY STRONG MID-LEVEL Q-VECTOR CONV PAIRED WITH A POTENT UPPER-LEVEL
PV ANOMALY WILL SUPPORT DEEP LIFT ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY MORNING.
CONTINUED STRONG LOW-LEVEL CAA AND MID-LEVEL COOLING WILL BRING
WET-BULB ZERO TEMPS TO UNDER 1KFT AGL BY 09Z FRI ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...AND 12Z FRI NEAR THE SHORES. WITH THAT SAID...ACCUMULATING
SNOW APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS AT LEAST THE HIGH TERRAIN FRIDAY MORNING.
AMPLE LIFT WITHIN THE DGZ WILL SUPPORT DECENT SNOW RATIOS AND
MODERATE SNOWFALL RATES. GIVEN THE TIME OF DAY...SNOWFALL RATES
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME WARMER ROAD SFC TEMPS AND RESULT IN
SOME SLUSH ON LESS TRAVELED ROADS. OVERALL...AROUND AN INCH OF WET
SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH A DUSTING POSSIBLY
REACHING THE SHORELINES.
TO ADD TO THE PRECIP...THE STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING
INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS THOUGH THE DAY. THE GRADIENT FLOW WILL BE
ASSISTED BY A STRONG ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT DUE TO THE DEEPENING LOW
OVER THE AREA. WIDESPREAD 15 TO 25 MPH WINDS LOOK POSSIBLE...WITH
SOME GUIDANCE INDICATING GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35 MPH DURING THE LATE
MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON.
DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL EXIT DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE
TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS LOWER MI. FOCUS TURNS TO
LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL AS H8 TEMPS AROUND -10C PRODUCE DELTA TEMPS OF
AT LEAST 15C. DUE NORTH WINDS THROUGH H8 SHOULD KEEP ALL BUT THE FAR
WEST AND FAR EAST CWA CLEAR OF ANY APPRECIABLE LAKE-EFFECT RAIN/SNOW.
FRIDAY NIGHT THOUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE SFC HIGH OVER MN FRIDAY
WILL REACH THE CWA BY SATURDAY EVENING. AN INFLUX OF MUCH DRIER
LOW-LEVEL AIR WILL CUTOFF LAKE EFFECT PRECIP FRIDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY
NIGHT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE QUITE CHILLY DEPENDING ON HOW QUICK
LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS EXIT THE AREA. AM NOT CONFIDENT ON WIDESPREAD
CLEARING...BUT SOME AREAS SHOULD SEE ENOUGH REDUCTION IN CLOUD COVER
TO ALLOW FOR RAPID COOLING LATE IN THE NIGHT. GIVEN STARTING TEMPS
IN THE 30S ON FRIDAY...SHOULD SEE LOWS WELL INTO THE 20S INLAND.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE SFC
RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE CWA AND A MID-LEVEL RIDGE APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. SATURDAY NIGHT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT...BUT LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL COMMENCE OVERNIGHT WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE SFC RIDGE.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE WORKS OVER THE CWA BY
SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING QUIET CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MAY
BE ENOUGH TO INDUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA...BUT
FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS BY WAY OF A JET AXIS AND H5 TROUGH
AXIS STAY TO THE NORTHWEST.
&&
.MARINE.../ISSUED AT 418 PM/
ALTHOUGH PEAK WINDS SHOULD REMAIN JUST SHY OF GALE CRITERIA FOR MOST
AREAS TONIGHT...THOUGH AS IS TYPICAL IN THESE SITUATIONS...A COUPLE
OF GALE GUSTS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE AT TIMES. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE WATERS. THOSE LIGHT WINDS
CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY BUT WITH ANOTHER BURST OF HIGHER WINDS
EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS SOME VERY COLD AIR DROPS INTO
THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION.../ISSUED AT 142 PM/...VALID FOR 18Z TAFS
SOME LINGERING MVFR CIGS AT PLN ARE EXPECTED TO GIVE WAY TO VFR
CONDITIONS BY MID AFTERNOON AS DRY ADVECTION AND MIXING HELPS CLEAR
OUT THE LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TIL LATER TONIGHT WHEN CONTINUING COLD AIR
ADVECTION RESULTS IN ENOUGH OVERLAKE INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT MVFR CIGS
AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF LAKE EFFECT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.
EXPECT WRLY WIND GUSTS INTO THE 20-25KT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AIDED
BY INCREASING SFC HEATING/MIXING. WINDS MAY STILL A BIT GUSTY AT
TIMES THROUGH THE NIGHT DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN ALONG THE LAKE
MICHIGAN SHORE.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LHZ345-346-349.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LHZ347-348.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ323-341.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ342-344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ322.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ321.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
349 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT329 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014
THE SFC LOW HAS MOVED EAST OF REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE MID LVL
CENTER OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. INTENSITY OF UPPER LOW AND
POSITIONING OF THIS FEATURE HAS ALLOWED A WELL DEFINED LOW LVL
TROUGH TO EXIST FROM THE SFC LOW WEST INTO SERN MANITOBA.THE DEEPLY
CYCLONIC AND RELATIVELY SATURATED NATURE OF THE REGIONAL ATMOSPHERE
HAS PRODUCED EXTENSIVE OVERCAST WITH A FAIRLY WIDE AREA OF
PRECIPITATION. PTYPES REMAIN LIQUID OVER THE CWA AT THIS TIME
HOWEVER A MIX OF RASN...OR EVEN ALL SNOW...EXISTS JUST ALONG THE
BORDER OF THE WRN CWA. SUSPECT SOME WET SNOW IS OCCURRING IN WRN
KOOCH COUNTY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014
TONIGHT...THE LARGE SCALE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP
SFC/MID LVL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL KEEP A CANOPY OF LOW CLOUDS AND
PRECIP OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT. AS MID LVL LOW MIGRATES EAST...THE
SFC TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTH FROM ONTARIO THIS EVENING. PTYPE WILL
TRANSITION TO A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW AND PERHAPS A PERIOD OF WET SNOW.
VERY TOUGH TO DETERMINE POTENTIAL AMOUNTS THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS IS
DUE TO THE MARGINAL BDRY LYR THERMAL PROFILES AND DEPENDENCY OF
DIABATIC COOLING/SNOW PRODUCTION UPON AREAS OF ENHANCED VERTICAL
MOTION. HI-RES PTYPE OUTPUT FROM HRRR IS RATHER SLOW TO MAKE THE
TRANSITION TO FROZEN PRECIP OVERNIGHT. THE NAM12/RUC13 ARE FASTER IN
COOLING THE NEAR SFC LAYER SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT THAT GREAT. GIVEN
THAT SNOW HAS BEEN OCCURRING JUST WEST OF THE REGION DURING THE
DIURNAL WARM PERIOD...WOULD THINK THAT WITH ADVENT OF NOCTURNAL BDRY
LYR COOLING...WE SHOULD SEE THE TRANSITION OCCUR IN MOST OF NE MN
ZONES BY MID/LATE EVENING. SOME LOCATIONS MAY SEE UP TO AN INCH ON
ELEVATED DECKS OR GRASSY SURFACES. THE PROBABILISTIC PRODUCTS FROM
SREF AND NARRE-TL FAVOR THE ARROWHEAD AND THE GOGEBIC RANGE FOR
SOME ACCUMULATION. GUSTY WINDS WILL REMAIN BASED ON BUFKIT MOMENTUM
PROFILES SUPPORTED BY THE PRESENCE OF A FAIRLY LARGE SFC PRESS
GRADIENT OVER THE CWA UNTIL EARLY MORNING.
TOMORROW...GRADUAL CLEARING OCCURS FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE SFC/MID
LVL LOWS SHIFT WELL EAST OF THE REGION. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER DRYING
IS FCST...MAJORITY OF NWP SUGGESTS RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN
A SHALLOW LAYER NEAR 2K TO 3K FT. WILL MAINTAIN A MOSTLY CLOUDY
FCST FOR NOW. PRECIP SHOULD EVENTUALLY DIMINISH EXCEPT OVER ERN
EDGE OF CWA.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014
A WEAK MID LEVEL S/W AND ASSOCIATED INVERTED SFC TROUGH WILL TRACK
EWD THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST WED NIGHT/THUR MORNING AND PRODUCE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW THROUGH THE REGION. A MORE POTENT
UPPER S/W WILL DROP IN FROM THE NORTH AND USHER IN ADDITIONAL HIGHER
CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS THUR AFTERNOON...EVENTUALLY CHANGING OVER
TO ALL SNOW THUR NIGHT AND FRI MORNING. THE TRACK OF THE LOW...FROM
NRN MANITOBA SEWD THROUGH WRN ONTARIO AND INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES
WILL ALLOW THE BULK OF THE PRECIP TO FALL ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE LARGE SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE WILL
OCCUR OVER WRN ONTARIO...CLIPPING THE ARROWHEAD AND IN THROUGH NRN
WI AND EWD INTO THE U.P. OF MICH. A SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE REGION AS THE S/W MOVES THROUGH AND MODIFIES THERMAL
PROFILES ENOUGH TO CHANGE THE RAIN SHOWERS OVER TO SNOW LATE
THURSDAY...AND ESPECIALLY THUR NIGHT/FRI MORNING. COULD SEE AROUND 1
INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATE OVER THE ARROWHEAD...WITH TRACE AMTS AROUND
THE TWIN PORTS. THE AREA EXPECTING TO SEE THE MOST WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE ACROSS THE SNOW BELT REGION OF ASHLAND AND IRON COUNTIES
WHERE LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL ALLOW A QUICK 1-2 INCHES TO FALL DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FAVORABLE NORTH WINDS AND STEEP/MOIST BL LAPSE
RATES WILL ALL CONTRIBUTE TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER SNOW AMTS IN THIS AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN QUICKLY FROM THE WEST ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST DURING THE REST OF THE DAY FRIDAY AND
FURTHER EWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES FRI NIGHT/SAT MORNING. ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THIS HIGH...A SWLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY
ACROSS THE REGION AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE
ROCKIES DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. WILL START TO SEE THE INFLUENCE FROM
THIS NEXT SYSTEM FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN. THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SLIGHTLY EARLY IN THE PERIOD...AND THEN WARM
GRADUALLY THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL TOP
OUT IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER
30S. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL DROP INTO THE 30S...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND SLIGHTLY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS BACK
INTO THE 40S AND LOWS IN THE 30S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHEASTERN ONTARIO EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE
REGION THROUGH THIS PERIOD. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS THE LOW SLOWLY PULLS
EASTWARD. POCKETS OF RAIN OR DRIZZLE WILL AFFECT THE TERMINALS
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. AREAS OF DEEPER SATURATION AND COOLER
AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL RESULT IN A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR
A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AT TIMES AT HIB AND INL. A CHANGE TO ALL
SNOW IS MOST LIKELY AT INL...RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS
AS THE SNOW MOVES THROUGH. CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION TIMING AND
TYPE DECREASES AFTER 22Z...NECESSITATING IN SWITCH BACK TO
PREVAILING VCSH.
COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO POUR INTO THE REGION AS PRECIPITATION
ENDS TONIGHT...RESULTING IN CIGS LOWERING INTO IFR CATEGORIES
OVERNIGHT. THERE SEEMS TO BE SUFFICIENT MIXING TO MAINTAIN WIND
GUSTS AT ALL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT...WITH WINDS EASING WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 33 41 33 43 / 60 10 10 20
INL 31 39 30 40 / 70 10 10 30
BRD 31 43 33 47 / 20 0 10 10
HYR 34 44 32 47 / 50 10 10 30
ASX 35 44 33 47 / 60 10 10 30
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ121-
146>148.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ144-145.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ140>143.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CANNON
SHORT TERM...CANNON
LONG TERM...HUYCK
AVIATION...HUYCK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS DULUTH MN
1259 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014
SEE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1114 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014
BASIC FCST SCENARIO REMAINS LEGITIMATE ALTHOUGH SOME NUANCES
EXIST WITHIN THE LOW LVL THERMAL PROFILES AND RESULTING PTYPE.
PRECIP HAS MIXED/CHANGED TO SNOW AT KFGN/KROX/KRRT AND UPSTREAM
INTO ADJACENT SERN MANITOBA/WRN ONTARIO. THIS APPEARS TO BE CO LOCATED
WITH SRN EDGE OF ENHANCED COLOR CURVE IN LATEST IMAGERY. CONCERN
IS THAT MORE EXTENSIVE SNOWFALL MAY MATERIALIZE OVER NWRN/WRN CWA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOWEVER GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN MDL SNDGS AND
DIURNAL IMPACT ON PTYPE...AM NOT READY TO PUSH MUCH MORE SIG
ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL YET. WILL MONITOR REPORTS NW OF CWA NEXT
FEW HRS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014
AT 330 AM...RAIN CONTINUED TO PUSH NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
ARROWHEAD REGION BUT THE OVERALL TREND HAS BEEN TO DIMINISH IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. MUCH OF THE REGION WAS NOW IN A DRY SLOT
WRAPPING INTO THE DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WERE
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S.
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE DEVELOPING
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...WHICH IS CURRENTLY STILL IN
TRANSITION FROM HAVING THE TWO UPPER LEVEL LOWS PHASE INTO ONE.
RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS
THE DAY WEARS ON...STARTING IN NORTH CENTRAL MN AND THEN SPREADING
SOUTH AND EASTWARD THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE CWA. THE 4 KM NMM WRF
SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY AS WELL AS THE HRRR ALL SUPPORT THIS
SCENARIO. WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH TODAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT A POSSIBLE MIX IN THE FAR
NORTH FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
CWA INTO TONIGHT. NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION
BUT COULD SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION ON GRASSY AREAS NORTH.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE TONIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY
ON WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER DEVELOPING
ON WEDNESDAY BUT ALSO THINK THE LOW CLOUDS WILL BE FAIRLY
PERSISTENT AND WIDESPREAD.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014
A SUBTLE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND
TUESDAY EVENING...WHILE A SHORTWAVE AND LOW WILL PASS JUST TO THE
WEST AND SOUTH OF THE NORTHLAND. THIS SHORTWAVE AND TROUGH COULD
BRING LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE FAR SW FORECAST AREA.
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY WITH A
LARGE SURFACE HIGH FOLLOWING IN ITS WAKE. THE COOL NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL RESULT IN CLOUDY WEATHER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING WITH
CHANCES OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS NEAR THE
GOGEBIC RANGE COULD RESULT IN UP TO A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOWFALL.
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHLAND FRIDAY. HALLOWEEN
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE ONE OF THE COLDEST DAYS THIS FALL SO FAR...BUT
IT SHOULD BE SUNNY WITH LIGHT WINDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 30S OVER THE NORTH TO NEAR 40 DEGREES OVER THE SOUTH.
THERE WILL BE A WARMING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING SURFACE HIGH AND A MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IN THE WESTERN UNITED STATES SHIFTS IN THE CENTRAL PART
OF THE COUNTRY. THERE ARE LOW CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHEASTERN ONTARIO EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE
REGION THROUGH THIS PERIOD. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS THE LOW SLOWLY PULLS
EASTWARD. POCKETS OF RAIN OR DRIZZLE WILL AFFECT THE TERMINALS
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. AREAS OF DEEPER SATURATION AND COOLER
AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL RESULT IN A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR
A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AT TIMES AT HIB AND INL. A CHANGE TO ALL
SNOW IS MOST LIKELY AT INL...RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS
AS THE SNOW MOVES THROUGH. CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION TIMING AND
TYPE DECREASES AFTER 22Z...NECESSITATING IN SWITCH BACK TO
PREVAILING VCSH.
COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO POUR INTO THE REGION AS PRECIPITATION
ENDS TONIGHT...RESULTING IN CIGS LOWERING INTO IFR CATEGORIES
OVERNIGHT. THERE SEEMS TO BE SUFFICIENT MIXING TO MAINTAIN WIND
GUSTS AT ALL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT...WITH WINDS EASING WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 44 33 41 33 / 70 60 10 10
INL 41 31 39 30 / 70 70 10 10
BRD 44 31 43 33 / 40 20 0 10
HYR 48 34 44 32 / 60 50 10 10
ASX 49 35 44 33 / 70 60 10 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ121-
146>148.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ144-145.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ140>143.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CANNON
SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...HUYCK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS DULUTH MN
1123 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1114 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014
BASIC FCST SCENARIO REMAINS LEGITIMATE ALTHOUGH SOME NUANCES
EXIST WITHIN THE LOW LVL THERMAL PROFILES AND RESULTING PTYPE.
PRECIP HAS MIXED/CHANGED TO SNOW AT KFGN/KROX/KRRT AND UPSTREAM
INTO ADJACENT SERN MANITOBA/WRN ONTARIO. THIS APPEARS TO BE CO LOCATED
WITH SRN EDGE OF ENHANCED COLOR CURVE IN LATEST IMAGERY. CONCERN
IS THAT MORE EXTENSIVE SNOWFALL MAY MATERIALIZE OVER NWRN/WRN CWA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOWEVER GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN MDL SNDGS AND
DIURNAL IMPACT ON PTYPE...AM NOT READY TO PUSH MUCH MORE SIG
ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL YET. WILL MONITOR REPORTS NW OF CWA NEXT
FEW HRS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014
AT 330 AM...RAIN CONTINUED TO PUSH NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
ARROWHEAD REGION BUT THE OVERALL TREND HAS BEEN TO DIMINISH IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. MUCH OF THE REGION WAS NOW IN A DRY SLOT
WRAPPING INTO THE DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WERE
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S.
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE DEVELOPING
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...WHICH IS CURRENTLY STILL IN
TRANSITION FROM HAVING THE TWO UPPER LEVEL LOWS PHASE INTO ONE.
RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS
THE DAY WEARS ON...STARTING IN NORTH CENTRAL MN AND THEN SPREADING
SOUTH AND EASTWARD THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE CWA. THE 4 KM NMM WRF
SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY AS WELL AS THE HRRR ALL SUPPORT THIS
SCENARIO. WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH TODAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT A POSSIBLE MIX IN THE FAR
NORTH FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
CWA INTO TONIGHT. NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION
BUT COULD SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION ON GRASSY AREAS NORTH.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE TONIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY
ON WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER DEVELOPING
ON WEDNESDAY BUT ALSO THINK THE LOW CLOUDS WILL BE FAIRLY
PERSISTENT AND WIDESPREAD.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014
A SUBTLE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND
TUESDAY EVENING...WHILE A SHORTWAVE AND LOW WILL PASS JUST TO THE
WEST AND SOUTH OF THE NORTHLAND. THIS SHORTWAVE AND TROUGH COULD
BRING LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE FAR SW FORECAST AREA.
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY WITH A
LARGE SURFACE HIGH FOLLOWING IN ITS WAKE. THE COOL NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL RESULT IN CLOUDY WEATHER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING WITH
CHANCES OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS NEAR THE
GOGEBIC RANGE COULD RESULT IN UP TO A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOWFALL.
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHLAND FRIDAY. HALLOWEEN
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE ONE OF THE COLDEST DAYS THIS FALL SO FAR...BUT
IT SHOULD BE SUNNY WITH LIGHT WINDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 30S OVER THE NORTH TO NEAR 40 DEGREES OVER THE SOUTH.
THERE WILL BE A WARMING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING SURFACE HIGH AND A MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IN THE WESTERN UNITED STATES SHIFTS IN THE CENTRAL PART
OF THE COUNTRY. THERE ARE LOW CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 641 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL LIFT INTO NE
ONTARIO TODAY. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS OVER
NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE COULD BE
BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CIGS AND/OR VSBYS FROM -RA OR -RASN. GUSTY W
TO WNW WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 44 33 41 33 / 70 60 10 10
INL 41 31 39 30 / 70 70 10 10
BRD 44 31 43 33 / 40 20 0 10
HYR 48 34 44 32 / 60 50 10 10
ASX 49 35 44 33 / 70 60 10 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ121-
146>148.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ144-145.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ140>143.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CANNON
SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
318 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014
CLOUD TRENDS THROUGH TONIGHT AND A WARMER DAY ON WEDNESDAY HIGHLIGHT
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.
THE RAP AND HRRR HAVE HANDLED THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS WELL THROUGHOUT
TODAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND WILL FOLLOW THEIR MOST RECENT
ITERATIONS FOR CLOUD COVER THROUGH TONIGHT...NAMELY THEIR 18-19 UTC
RUNS. STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY ERODE FAR SOUTHWEST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...NOT CLEARING THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY UNTIL CLOSER TO 12
UTC WEDNESDAY MORNING. DID ADD AREAS OF FOG ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA TONIGHT ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STRATUS WHERE WINDS
BECOME CALM. WILL ALSO CONTINUE THE PATCHY DRIZZLE MENTION
DOWNSTREAM OF LAKE SAKAKAWEA EARLY THIS EVENING WITH STREAMERS
CONTINUING TO COME OFF THE LAKE. RETURN FLOW COMMENCES TONIGHT
ACROSS THE WEST AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA. THIS
FRONT WILL PROPAGATE THROUGH THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 50S...WITH POSSIBLY A
FEW READINGS IN THE 60S ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT...GENERALLY
ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS AREA WIDE AS A WEAK IMPULSE INTERACTS WITH THE
FRONT.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014
A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS A SLOW
MODERATING TREND GETS UNDERWAY...FOLLOWED BY A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. MUCH COLDER AIR CAN BE EXPECTED LATE
IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SNOWSHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL. A
HEADLINE MAY BE WARRANTED IN THE FUTURE IF THE SNOW/WINDS MAINTAIN
CONSISTENCY IN FUTURE RUNS.
AN EXITING LOW PRESSURE WEDNESDAY EVENING OVER THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY WILL PROVIDE FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH 06Z
THURSDAY BEFORE ENDING. THEREAFTER...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL
DOMINATE WITH A DRY PATTERN...SHIFTING FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
THURSDAY INTO NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY NIGHT...AND THEN EAST OF NORTH
DAKOTA SATURDAY. THE WARMEST POCKET OF AIR SLIDES THROUGH SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT VIA A SOUTHWEST FLOW...AHEAD OF A SHARP COLD
FRONTAL SYSTEM WHICH PASSES THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY. IN DOING SO...EXPECT A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN AGREEMENT
WITH THE TRACK OF THE UPPER/SURFACE LOW SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...TAKING
IT ON A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TRACK FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND THEN ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA. THE GEM
TAKES A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK...MOVING IT FROM SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA
ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA RESULTING IN
A MORE BROAD/WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EVENT. ALL SOLUTIONS HOWEVER
SHOW STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN AREA OF SNOWSHOWERS.
REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN BLOWING/FALLING SNOW MAY BE THE GREATEST
IMPACT AND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED IN FUTURE RUNS FOR POSSIBLE
HEADLINES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014
MVFR STRATUS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
NEARLY ALL OF NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE EVENING...SLOWLY ERODING FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
STRATUS. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS WILL CONTINUE CENTRAL
THIS AFTERNOON WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FLURRIES.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
329 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014
.DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT IS JUST TO THE NW OF THE CWA AT THIS TIME. PRECIPITATION
ALONG THE FRONT HAS LOST ORGANIZATION THROUGH THE DAY. SCATTERED
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS THE EXTENT OF THE PRECIP AND IS CONFINED TO THE
WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF OUR COUNTIES FOR NOW. FORCING IS WEAK ALONG
THE BOUNDARY AND THE LATEST HRRR DOES NOT INDICATE MUCH IN THE WAY
OF STRENGTHENING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. SO...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE HRRR
WHICH CONTINUES TO JUST SHOW LIGHT TO MODERATE SCATTERED SHOWER
ACTIVITY FOR TONIGHT. WILL LOWER QPF AMOUNTS IN THE GRIDS AND
GENERALLY UTILIZE 40-60 PERCENT POPS. WILL INCLUDE JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDER. STILL...SOME MINIMAL INSTABILITIES ARE IN
PLACE.
FOLLOWING A FEW RESIDUAL SHOWERS IN THE MORNING ACROSS OUR EASTERN
AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES...WE SHOULD SEE DECREASING CLOUDS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND THIS
LATEST COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL ONLY USHER IN NEAR NORMAL VALUES
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
IN THE EXT FCST...THE WEATHER LOOKS A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING THAN
24 HRS AGO. AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS LOOKING AS THOUGH IT WILL DIVE
SOUTHEAST AND MOVE ACROSS EASTERN TN BY THIS WEEKEND. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO NORTHERLY ON FRIDAY ACROSS TN AND WILL BEGIN TO USHER IN
COOLER TO COLDER TEMPERATURES. HERE IN THE MID STATE...WE WILL BE ON
THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND THERE WILL BE SOME
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ON FRIDAY AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. GFS ACTUALLY
SUPPORTS A FEW FLURRIES FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLATEAU. BUT...GIVEN THAT THIS IS ONLY RUN #1 OF GFS
CONTINUITY...WILL ONLY MENTION COLDER TEMPS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
FURTHERMORE...EURO IS FURTHER EAST WITH THE TRACK AND MOISTURE.
SATURDAY LOOKS RATHER COLD WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE UPPER
40S TO MID 50S WITH AN APPRECIABLE NORTHERLY BREEZE AS WELL.
SO...LOOKING COLD AND BRISK ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE
WARM WEATHER WE HAVE HAD.
OTHERWISE...SFC HIGH WILL BE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY ON SUNDAY MORNING.
MEX IS TRENDING TOWARD COLDER AND A FREEZE POTENTIAL IS CERTAINLY IN
PLACE. FOR NOW...WILL INCLUDE PATCHY/AREAS OF FROST ACROSS THE AREA.
LOOK FOR A WARMING TREND TO OCCUR ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 50 67 39 63 / 40 10 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 46 66 37 62 / 40 05 0 0
CROSSVILLE 50 62 37 58 / 60 20 0 0
COLUMBIA 51 68 39 65 / 50 10 0 0
LAWRENCEBURG 51 68 39 65 / 60 20 0 0
WAVERLY 47 67 38 63 / 40 10 0 0
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
21
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
311 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014
.DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTH TEXAS
AREA. PATCHES OF LOWER CLOUDS ARE EVIDENT ON SATELLITE...BUT
RADAR CURRENTLY ONLY SHOWS WEAK SHOWER ACTIVITY NEAR GILMER IN
EAST TEXAS. HRRR STILL SHOWS SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHERN
ZONES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING SO HAVE LEFT LOW POPS IN THAT AREA.
MODERATE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S/LOW
80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S/60S THROUGH FRIDAY. THEN THE NEXT SHOT OF
REINFORCING COLD AIR PUSHES IN ON FRIDAY. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW LOWS TO DROP INTO THE 40S
NORTH AND LOW 50S FAR SOUTH. SATURDAY HIGHS WILL SIT IN THE 60S IN
ALL BUT THE SOUTH AND WEST WHERE LOW 70S ARE EXPECTED.
IN THE EXTENDED...GFS/ECMWF ADVERTISE A GOOD RAIN EVENT
MONDAY/TUESDAY...WITH THE GFS ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA. ECMWF CUTS THIS MOISTURE OFF IN MEXICO. HAVE HIGH CHANCE
POPS DURING THAT TIME FRAME DUE TO MODEL AGREEMENT...BUT WILL
RESERVE JUDGMENT ON THE TROPICAL MOISTURE. IF IT OCCURS...QPF
MAY BE MUCH HIGHER THAN IF IT GETS TRAPPED IN MEXICO. 84
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1251 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014/
POST-FRONTAL LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SCATTER OUT ACROSS THE
METROPLEX SITE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR MIXES DOWN.
TEMPORARY MVFR CEILINGS ARE STILL LIKELY AT ALL METRO TERMINALS
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AT ALL NORTH TEXAS TAF SITES
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION.
A NORTH WIND WILL PREVAIL BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AT SPEEDS BETWEEN
7 AND 13 KNOTS. WACO SHOULD SEE A WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTH/NORTHWEST BY 20Z. 79
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 56 77 53 77 53 / 10 0 0 10 5
WACO, TX 57 77 53 78 55 / 20 10 5 10 5
PARIS, TX 52 74 46 73 49 / 20 5 5 10 5
DENTON, TX 49 76 47 76 49 / 5 0 0 10 5
MCKINNEY, TX 51 76 46 75 50 / 10 5 0 10 5
DALLAS, TX 56 77 55 76 55 / 10 0 0 10 5
TERRELL, TX 55 76 51 76 52 / 20 5 5 10 5
CORSICANA, TX 58 76 52 76 53 / 30 20 5 10 5
TEMPLE, TX 60 77 55 79 55 / 20 20 10 10 5
MINERAL WELLS, TX 51 77 49 77 50 / 5 0 0 10 5
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$