Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 10/27/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RENO NV
309 PM PDT SAT OCT 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INLAND TONIGHT, BRINGING GUSTY WINDS ALONG
WITH LIGHT RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. COOLER CONDITIONS WITH A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED EARLY SUNDAY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.
MILD AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN NEXT WEEK, WITH A CHANCE OF
RAIN AND SNOW WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES BY NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
COLD FRONTAL PRECIPITATION BAND HAS MOVED INTO WESTERN NEVADA AND
THE EASTERN SIERRA AROUND LAKE TAHOE AND ALPINE COUNTY. THE
PRECIPITATION HAS FALLEN APART AS PROGGED BY MODELS NORTH OF RENO.
HOWEVER, PRECIPITATION HELD TOGETHER BETTER THAN EXPECTED FOR RENO
SOUTH TO MINDEN MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 395. NEAR THE
CREST WEST OF LAKE TAHOE THE PRECIPITATION WAS HEAVY ENOUGH TO
BRIEFLY DRIVE SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO BETWEEN 6500 AND 7000 FEET AND
CAUSE SLUSHY ACCUMULATIONS ON INTERSTATE 80 (THAT HAS SINCE MELTED).
OUTSIDE OF THE BRIEF LOWERING, SNOW LEVELS ARE RUNNING BETWEEN
ABOUT 7500 AND 8500 FEET. AS SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR ALOFT FILTERS IN
WITH THIS SYSTEM`S TROUGH AXIS TONIGHT AND PRECIPITATION TURNS
SHOWERY SNOW LEVELS WILL SLOWLY FALL TO AS LOW AS 6000-6500 FEET
ALTHOUGH MOST PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF BY THEN. IN ANY CASE,
BURSTS OF SNOW SHOWERS COULD CERTAINLY CAUSE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
AND SLICK ROADS AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS FROM TAHOE NORTH OVERNIGHT.
WIND-WISE, SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO BETWEEN 40
AND 60 MPH WERE WIDESPREAD TODAY. WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO FALL OFF
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BUT ARE STILL HOWLING OUT IN THE BASIN AND
RANGE WITH STRONG WEST WINDS DRIVING A LARGE AREA OF DUST OFF THE
CARSON SINK (EASTERN PERSHING/CHURCHILL COUNTIES).
FOR TONIGHT, THERE IS ONE MORE DISTURBANCE ROUNDING THE BASE OF
THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH. AT THIS TIME, IT IS FIRING UP NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND EVEN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA.
THIS IMPULSE WILL MOVE THROUGH FAR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS
EVENING AND FIRE UP ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS FOR NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA
AND WESTERN NEVADA, MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. THIS COULD
BRING LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE 6500-7000 FEET. ELSEWHERE,
RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT. WINDS
WILL REMAIN A BIT GUSTY FOR MANY AREAS THIS EVENING BEFORE DYING
OFF CONSIDERABLY FOR VALLEYS AS A WEAK SURFACE HIGH BUILD IN.
SUNDAY MORNING A FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS MAY LINGER WELL NORTH OF
I-80 BEFORE AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO SLOWLY BUILD OVERHEAD THROUGH
MONDAY. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A BIT BELOW AVERAGE AS
A COOL SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE GREAT BASIN. SNYDER
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION AT THE BEGINNING ON THE LONG TERM
ON TUESDAY. RATHER QUIET WEATHER OVERALL TUESDAY-THURSDAY. ONE
EXCEPTION IS POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT WARM ADVECTION PRECIP NORTH OF
SUSANVILLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
FILAMENT OF MOISTURE BREAKING OFF A MORE SIGNIFICANT ATMOSPHERIC
RIVER OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THIS
PRECIP IS ONLY MEDIUM - MAINLY DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN HOW FAR
SOUTH THE MOISTURE PLUME WILL GET.
MAIN INTEREST IN THE LONG TERM IS INCREASING LIKELIHOOD OF AN
APPRECIABLE TROF MOVING INTO CA/NV FRIDAY-SATURDAY. THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ECMWF/GFS BUT OVERALL THE BIG PICTURE
PATTERN IS SIMILAR, LEADING TO MEDIUM FORECAST CONFIDENCE WHICH AT
THIS LEAD TIME ISN`T BAD. NAEFS ANOMALY CHARTS ALSO PICKING UP ON
THIS TROUGH WHICH HELPS INCREASE CONFIDENCE IN THE PATTERN
VERIFYING. OVERALL CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE MINIMAL. CHANCE OF
RAIN FRIDAY-SATURDAY WITH SNOW LEVELS FALLING FROM 10KFT TO 6-7KFT.
QPF/TIMING ARE THE MAIN UNCERTAINTIES: ECMWF LIGHTER QPF BUT FASTER
WHILE GFS HAS SOME PERIODS OF HEAVY PRECIP IN THE SIERRA BUT IT`S
SLOWER. NO REASON TO FAVOR ONE OUTCOME OVER THE OTHER RIGHT NOW.
STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY GIVEN
SFC GRADIENT AND 700MB FLOW 40-55 KTS DEPICTED IN THE GFS; TO A
LESSER EXTENT IN THE ECMWF. CS
&&
.AVIATION...
NOT EXACTLY THE MOST PLEASANT DAY FOR FLYING WITH STRONG WINDS AND
SHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGH MID-EVENING. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE
TAFS IS MEDIUM.
WINDS HAVE BEEN SOMEWHAT ERRATIC AROUND RNO/CXP WITH PRECIP SPILLING
OVER AND SWITCHING WIND DIRECTION AT SFC TO W/NW. S/SW WINDS IN
FOOTHILLS YIELDING LLWS WHICH HAS BEEN REPORTED BY RECENT ARRIVALS
INTO RNO. NOT SURE HOW LONG THIS WESTERLY WIND WILL LAST SO HAVE
USED TEMPO IN TAF. THE NEXT UNCERTAINTY IS POTENTIAL FOR MOUNTAIN
WAVE AND DOWNSLOPE WIND ENHANCEMENTS AT RNO/CXP FROM 23Z-03Z AS
WINDS ALOFT TURN MORE W/SW. IF THIS HAPPENS WINDS AT THE SURFACE
WOULD TURN MORE SSE BUT JUST OFF THE SURFACE STRONG SW WINDS OF
50KTS WOULD RESULT IN APPRECIABLE LLWS CONTINUING AT RNO/CXP. HRRR
SHOWING THIS SIGNATURE CLEARLY IN LATEST RUNS. OVERALL THE
PROBABILITY OF THIS SCENARIO PANNING OUT IS ABOUT 50-60% SO HAVE
INCLUDED IN THE 18Z TAFS.
OTHERWISE MAIN ISSUE IS PRECIP IN THE SIERRA AND IN FAR WESTERN
NEVADA WEST OF HWY 395. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR GUIDANCE -
BETWEEN NOW AND 03Z IS OPTIMAL TIME FOR COLD FRONTAL RAIN TO IMPACT
AIRFIELDS INCLUDING TRK/TVL/BRIDGEPORT. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION IS A
GIVEN IN THE SIERRA AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT DAYBREAK SUNDAY
IN THE COOLER POST FRONTAL AIRMASS. IF SKIES CLEAR ENOUGH FOG IS
POSSIBLE AT TRK LATE TONIGHT SINCE THEY DID GET A BURST OF RAIN THIS
AFTERNOON. CS
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
STRONG WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES IN. INCREASING MOISTURE OVER THE SIERRA AND ALONG THE
SIERRA FRONT HAVE HELPED TO INCREASE THE HUMIDITY IN THE RENO-CARSON
CITY-MINDEN AREAS. THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE WESTERN NEVADA
SIERRA FRONT WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 3PM THIS AFTERNOON.
FURTHER EAST, DRIER CONDITIONS AND STRONG WINDS WILL KEEP THE RED
FLAG WARNING IN PLACE THROUGH 8PM THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH WESTERN NEVADA THIS EVENING WITH
DIMINISHING WINDS, GOOD RECOVERY AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.
HOON
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING NVZ003-005.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR LAKE TAHOE
IN NVZ002.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING NVZ453-459.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING NVZ001-004.
CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING CAZ070-071.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING CAZ073.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR LAKE TAHOE
IN CAZ072.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
200 PM PDT SAT OCT 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASED CLOUDS ALONG WITH A
COOLING TREND AND STRONG WINDS TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INLAND BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BRINGING A RETURN TO WARMER
CONDITIONS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER TROUGH MOVED OVER CALIFORNIA THIS
MORNING...BRINGING BREEZY CONDITIONS TO MUCH OF THE AREA AND RAIN
TO MAINLY MERCED AND FRESNO COUNTIES. A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY
DRAPED ACROSS THE WESTERN EDGE OF MERCED COUNTY AND IS FORECAST
TO MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT BREEZY SOUTH WINDS WERE PRESENT...WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 15 AND
20 MPH COMMON THROUGH THE VALLEY. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME
WEST TO NORTHWEST AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 15 AND
30 MPH ACROSS THE VALLEY. AS FORECAST...THE LINE OF RAIN MOVING
INTO MERCED COUNTY DISSIPATED QUITE SIGNIFICANTLY...BUT NOT
BEFORE DROPPING A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. SAN LUIS DAM REPORTED
0.02" WHILE GUSTINE IN MERCED COUNTY AND THE PANOCHE ROAD RAWS IN
FRESNO COUNTY EACH PICKED UP 0.01"
THIS RAIN IS FORECAST TO BE SPOTTY AT BEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS...WITH MUCH OF THE FOCUS OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY. THE HRRR AND HIGH RES ARW AND WELL
AS HIGH RES NMM ARE ALL IN AGREEMENT THAT THE VALLEY COULD SEE
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FROM FRESNO COUNTY NORTHWARD THROUGH
APPROXIMATELY 5 PM PDT...WHILE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA NEVADA INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.
BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
OUT OF THE AREA...WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT...RESULTING IN UPSLOPE CLOUDINESS IN KERN COUNTY. THE HIGH
RES MODELS PICK UP ON THIS WELL...INDICATING A FEW HUNDREDTH OF
DRIZZLE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
AFTER SUNDAY MORNING...UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW IS FORECAST TO
PREVAIL OVER THE REGION...AIDING IN THE COOLING TREND OVER THE
REGION. SUNDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE VALLEY WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 70S...WHILE ON MONDAY TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL ANOTHER FEW DEGREES TO THE LOW 70S. MONDAY`S TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF OCTOBER.
OTHERWISE...A SUBTLE WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON TUESDAY AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA INTO THURSDAY. BY
WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM ONCE AGAIN INTO THE
80S.
QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE END OF THE
WEEK...AS THE ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST IS INDICATING ANOTHER SHOT OF
RAIN FOR THE AREA BEGINNING AS EARLY AS FRIDAY...CONTINUING INTO
THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE MEASURE OF PREDICTABILITY WITH THE
ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST IS STILL VERY LOW...SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE
REMAINS VERY LOW AT THIS TIME. REGARDLESS...WE WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND FOR FRESNO COUNTY NORTHWARD.
&&
.AVIATION...
STRONG WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 KNOTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
NEVADA CREST AT TIMES THRU 06Z SUNDAY. ALSO...LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS
IN CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SIERRA THRU 06Z. AREAS OF
MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS IN UPSLOPE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ACROSS
VALLEY FACING SLOPES FROM 06Z THRU 18Z SUN. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.
&&
.CERTAINTY...
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS LOW.
THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORDS
SITE DATE HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR
KFAT 10-25 91:1966 61:1998 62:1982 36:1971
KFAT 10-26 89:2003 57:2004 58:1927 35:1939
KFAT 10-27 89:2003 58:1896 61:1987 35:1970
KBFL 10-25 94:1917 62:1939 66:1982 35:1899
KBFL 10-26 92:2003 58:1996 61:1959 35:1939
KBFL 10-27 99:1906 56:2004 64:1987 34:1919
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...RILEY
AVN/FW...BSO
SYNOPSIS...MOLINA
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1053 AM PDT SAT OCT 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A PACIFIC STORM WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA TODAY
BEFORE LIFTING QUICKLY NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD
GRADUALLY DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED RAIN BANDS... COOLER UNSTABLE AIR WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AS WELL...ESPECIALLY FROM THE SANTA
CRUZ MOUNTAINS NORTHWARD. DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
SUNDAY WITH A WARMING TREND BEGINNING MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
REBUILDS ALONG THE COAST.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 08:35 AM PDT SATURDAY...FINE TUNING DETAILS IN
THE FORECAST FOR TODAY AND THIS EVENING. FRONTAL BAND IS
PROGRESSING EASTWARD AND HAS MARCHED INTO EAST BAY AND EXTENDS
SOUTH INTO MONTEREY COUNTY. GOOD BREAK IN PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH SF BAY LOOKING FOR A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER BEFORE
COOLER MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS MOVES ONSHORE. BACKED OFF
PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER SOMEWHAT THIS MORNING CENTRAL AND
NORTH BAY.
BROAD BRUSHED MUCH OF AREA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EVEN
NUMEROUS SHOWERS NORTH BAY THIS AFTERNOON AS BREAKS IN CLOUDS AND
SOLAR HEATING WORK ON THE MOIST DESTABILIZING AIR MASS. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CARDS AS WELL FROM ABOUT SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS
NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE OF ANY THREAT OF THUNDER
INTO THE BAY AREA WOULD BE MID AFTERNOON THRU EARLY EVENING. NORTH BAY
COULD EASILY SEE THUNDER ANYTIME THIS AFTERNOON. WOULD NOT RULE
OUT SMALL HAIL WITH SOME OF THE STORMS GIVEN RELATIVELY HIGH CAPE
VALUES. NAM FORECAST SOUNDING FOR STS THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS CAPES
OVER 500J WHICH IS PRETTY IMPRESSIVE FOR THIS AREA...BUT HELICITY
IS MUCH LOWER THAN WAS FORECAST YESTERDAY. WIND SHEAR STILL PRETTY
STRONG...BUT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR BREAKS DOWN ABOUT THE TIME
CONVECTION GETS GOING.
WIND ADVISORY IS MARGINAL GIVEN CURRENT WIND SPEEDS AND TREND IN
WIND WILL BE DOWNWARD THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN POTENTIAL IMPACTS WITH
DROUGHT STRESSED TREES AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT WINDS FOR SOME TIME
NOW...WILL LEAVE THE ADVISORY RIDE FOR NOW WITH GUSTS OVER 35 MPH
STILL LIKELY IN ELEVATED TERRAIN.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 02:28 AM PDT SATURDAY...THE FORECAST
FOCUS TODAY IS ON RAIN CHANCES AND PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS
AND ANY SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
AS OF 09Z...A LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 40N/130W IS WELL EVIDENT
ON IR SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD TODAY...AND INTO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON BY 00Z SUN.
CURRENT RADAR SHOWS AN INITIAL BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS MOVING INTO
THE COASTAL NORTH BAY PRESENTLY. MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO BE
FOR LIGHT RAIN TO PUSH QUICKLY THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING.
TIMING IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT FROM PREVIOUS RUNS WHICH INDICATES
THAT SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE IMMEDIATE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
BY 12Z AND THE MONTEREY BAY AREA AROUND 15Z. HRRR INDICATES JUST A
QUICK SHOT...ABOUT 3-5 HOURS...OF LIGHT RAIN WITH RAPID MOVING
FRONTAL BANDS. AFTER THESE BANDS CLEAR THERE WILL BE A FEW HOURS
OF DRY WEATHER AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES WITH COLD ADVECTION
NOTED. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE BASIC INGREDIENTS NEEDED FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER
THE NORTH BAY. AN ANALYSIS OF FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWED A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH SOME SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY.
THE PROFILE REMAINS MOIST ENOUGH TO SUPPORT CONVECTION AS WELL.
THERE WILL BE A VIGOROUS WIND FIELD WITH 0-6KM SHEAR IN EXCESS OF
30KTS AND NOTED LOW LEVEL SHEAR AS WELL. IN ADDITION...A JET
STREAK WILL PASS THROUGH NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND LEAVE THE NORTH
BAY IN THE FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THE
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED HOWEVER NOTING
500 MB HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE AT THAT LEVEL.
THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT LIFT AND INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT SCATTERED
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE NORTH BAY
ESPECIALLY...WITH ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE EVEN AS FAR SOUTH AS
THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS. AGREE WITH SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK OF MARGINAL
SEVERE THREAT IN THE NORTH BAY...AND THEIR FORECAST OF POTENTIAL
LOW TOPPED SUPERCELL STRUCTURE IS REASONABLE GIVEN LOW FREEZING
HEIGHTS AND AMPLE SHEAR. NOTED FAVORABLE HODOGRAPH AS WELL TO
SUPPORT THIS FORECAST. LOW FREEZING HEIGHT WILL SUPPORT SMALL HAIL
POTENTIAL. SHEAR BECOMES MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL AFTER 21Z...AND NOTED
STORM MOTION WILL BE QUICK FROM THE SOUTHWEST. 0-6KM MEAN WIND OF
35-40KTS BY 21Z TO ALSO INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS IN
STORMS.
OTHER FACTOR OF NOTE TODAY IS WIND ADVISORY WHICH HAS BEEN
EXTENDED A FEW HOURS IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN. MARGINAL EVENT WILL
HAVE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GREATER IMPACT GIVEN THAT IT IS THE FIRST
WIND OF THE SEASON...AND DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE PRODUCED MORE DEAD
OR DYING TREES AND VEGETATION THIS YEAR. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH OR HIGHER IN THE HIGH TERRAIN AND COAST. CURRENT
GUSTS ALREADY NEAR 50 MPH IN SOME AREAS SO THIS LOOKS REASONABLE.
HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO RISE OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW EXITS THE AREA.
SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT AND DRYING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA AND
PRODUCE WARMING TEMPERATURES. BUT COOL NIGHTTIME LOWS EXPECTED IN
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE WARMING TREND. LIKELY TO SEE MANY
UPPER 30S IN THE FAVORED COOL INTERIOR VALLEYS. ESPECIALLY IN THE
NORTH BAY AND ALSO INTERIOR MONTEREY COUNTY.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 4:45 AM PDT SATURDAY...A PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CONTINUES TO PUSH INLAND THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT RAIN IMPACTING
THE MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS. FURTHER NORTH...RAIN SHOWERS ARE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH INLAND THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE NORTH BAY TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS
WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON AND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
IN WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES DIMINISH
THROUGH THE LATE EVENING.
VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING BENEATH SHOWER ACTIVITY. WIND SPEEDS WILL LIKELY
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOME MORE WESTERLY THROUGH THE
EVENING. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING BENEATH SHOWER ACTIVITY. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AFTER 21Z WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WESTERLY WIND SPEEDS.
WINDS BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT WITH PATCHY STRATUS POSSIBLE...YET
WILL KEEP SCT CLOUDS AT THIS TIME. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 09:10 AM PDT SATURDAY...A STRONG SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE OREGON COAST WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD TODAY...RESULTING IN STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH AND SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN WAKE OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE REGION TODAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...WIND ADVISORY...NORTH BAY COAST AND MOUNTAINS
WIND ADVISORY...SAN MATEO AND SANTA CRUZ COUNTY COASTS
WIND ADVISORY...SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS
SCA...SF BAY SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 3 PM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 PM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 PM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 PM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 PM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 PM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM 2 PM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM FROM 2 PM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM FROM 2 PM
GLW...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 2 PM
GLW...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM UNTIL 2 PM
GLW...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM UNTIL 2 PM
SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: KBB
AVIATION/MARINE: RGASS
VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RENO NV
1045 AM PDT SAT OCT 25 2014
.AVIATION UPDATE...
NOT EXACTLY THE MOST PLEASANT DAY FOR FLYING WITH STRONG GRADIENT
WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH MID-EVENING. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE
TAFS IS MEDIUM TO HIGH. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS POTENTIAL FOR
MOUNTAIN WAVE AND DOWNSLOPE WIND ENHANCEMENTS AT RNO/CXP FROM
23Z-03Z AS WINDS ALOFT TURN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. IF THIS HAPPENS
WINDS AT THE SURFACE WOULD TURN MORE SSE BUT JUST OFF THE SURFACE
STRONG SW WINDS OF 50KTS WOULD RESULT IN APPRECIABLE LLWS AT
RNO/CXP. HRRR SHOWING THIS SIGNATURE CLEARLY IN LATEST RUNS. OVERALL
THE PROBABILITY OF THIS SCENARIO PANNING OUT IS ABOUT 60% SO HAVE
INCLUDED IN THE 18Z TAFS. CS
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE WEST COAST WILL MOVE INLAND TODAY, BRINGING
A PERIOD OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH LIGHT RAIN AND MOUNTAIN
SNOW. COOLER CONDITIONS WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
EARLY SUNDAY WITH MILDER AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A COLD-FRONTAL RAIN BAND ALONG THE NORTHERN
CA COAST THIS MORNING, MOVING EAST AS EXPECTED. AS SUCH, THE
FORECAST IS ON TRACK FOR THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE EAST OF THE
SIERRA BY NOON AND INTO EASTERN NV THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG SOUTH
WIND GUSTS ARE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS SIERRA RIDGES AND HAVE
ALREADY SURFACED IN SOME SIERRA VALLEYS. ELSEWHERE. A SUDDEN ONSET
OF STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL SURFACE EARLY THIS MORNING AS SHALLOW
MORNING INVERSIONS QUICKLY MIX OUT. COMMUNITIES SHOULD PREPARE
FOR GUSTS 40-55 MPH TODAY, AND UP TO 65 MPH OR HIGHER FOR WIND
PRONE LOCATIONS. THESE WINDS WILL CREATE A TRAVEL HAZARD FOR HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES, HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS ON TAHOE AND
PYRAMID LAKES, AND LOW VISIBILITIES DUE TO BLOWING DUST IN THE NV
BASIN AND RANGE. WIND ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT TODAY FOR EASTERN
SIERRA AND WESTERN NV ZONES.
COMPUTER MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE FRONTAL PRECIPITATION BAND
FALLING APART AS IT MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN SIERRA AND WESTERN
NV. HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED, BUT THE FRONTAL BAND
WILL BRING A PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION TO SIERRA VALLEYS, BUT WITH
PRECIPITATION RATES DROPPING OFF QUICKLY EAST OF THE CREST. STORM
TOTALS THROUGH TONIGHT COULD REACH AROUND 0.75 INCHES NEAR THE
CREST IN PLUMAS AND LASSEN COUNTIES BUT WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY
WITH LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED IN WESTERN NV VALLEYS.
SNOW LEVELS CURRENTLY AT 8000-9000 FEET WILL LOWER TO 7000-7500
FEET TONIGHT. HOWEVER, BY THE TIME SNOW LEVELS DROP BELOW 8000 FEET
TONIGHT, MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE DIMINISHED BUT AN
INCH OR TWO OF SNOW MAY ACCUMULATE NEAR THE NORTHERN SIERRA CREST.
SUNDAY MORNING WILL BRING A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS GENERALLY
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 AS THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH, WITH
DRIER MORE STABLE AIR ALOFT MOVING IN FOR AN END TO ANY SHOWERS
BY AFTERNOON. IF SKIES REMAIN CLEAR SUNDAY NIGHT (HIGH CLOUDS IN
SOME MODELS), WE COULD FINALLY SEE A WIDESPREAD FREEZE WHICH
WOULD INCLUDE THE LOWER VALLEYS. JCM
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
SOME CHANGES ARE EVIDENT IN THE GUIDANCE THIS MORNING FOR NEXT WEEK,
BUT THEY ARE NOT HUGE CHANGES. THE ONE NOTICEABLE THING THIS MORNING
IS BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TROUGH FOR LATE WEEK/NEXT WEEKEND. A FEW
MINOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE BASED ON THE LATEST THINKING.
FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES HAVE TRENDED NORTH
WITH THE JET OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THEY NOW SHOW A LIMITED
EFFECT FROM THE TRAILING FRONT NEAR THE OREGON BORDER. WINDS ALOFT
ARE WEAKER THIS MORNING AND THE THREAT FOR PRECIP HAS ALSO BEEN
REDUCED AMONGST THE MODELS. SINCE THIS TREND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
AMONGST THE MODELS, TRIMMED BACK POPS FURTHER NORTH TO NEAR THE
OREGON BORDER.
AS FOR LATE WEEK, THE MODELS ARE COMING INTO A COMPROMISE SOLUTION
FROM THE 00Z FRIDAY EC/GFS SOLUTIONS. THE EC HAS SPED UP THIS
MORNING AND THE GFS SLOWED DOWN. THE EC ENSEMBLE IS ALSO SHOWING
CONSIDERABLY LESS SPREAD THIS MORNING WITH THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY NOW
IN THE DEPTH OF THE TROUGH FOR LATE WEEK AND NOT AS MUCH IN THE
TIMING. BOTH MODELS HAVE A DECENT RIDGE THURSDAY THAT MOVES EAST
SLOWLY FRIDAY. THE GFS BRINGS THE NEXT TROUGH IN FRIDAY NIGHT WHILE
THE EC WAITS UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT. THE EC ENSEMBLE REPRESENTS A GOOD
COMPROMISE SO HELD OFF ANY CHANCE POPS UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY.
WHILE THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY, IT IS LESS THAN
YESTERDAY AND CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR THE 7-8 DAY PERIOD.
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES, THEY WILL RISE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE
BY MIDWEEK WITH HIGHS NEAR 70 IN WESTERN NEVADA AND LOW 60S IN
SIERRA VALLEYS. TEMPS WILL COOL FOR NEXT WEEKEND AS THE TROUGH MOVES
IN.
&&
.AVIATION...
WINDS ALOFT CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT. FOR MAIN TERMINALS IN SIERRA/EXTREME WESTERN NEVADA,
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE THROUGH 21Z WITH PEAK GUSTS NEAR 40 KTS.
LLWS IS LIKELY WITH MTN WAVE TURBULENCE DURING THIS TIME AS WELL.
FURTHER EAST NEAR HIGHWAY 95, PEAK WINDS TO BE FROM 18-00Z.
OTHER CONCERN WILL BE PRECIP WHICH WILL START IN WESTERN LASSEN
COUNTY BY 18Z AND HIT THE TAHOE BASIN AROUND 21Z. MAIN BAND WILL
ONLY LAST 2-3 HRS WITH MVFR CIGS/VIS LIKELY AND LCL IFR CONDS IN THE
SIERRA. FOR WRN NEVADA, EXPECT MAINLY VFR IN ISOLD/SCT -SHRA AT BEST.
OCNL -SHRA TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT MAINLY NORTH OF
KTRK/KRNO WITH LCL MVFR CIGS IN THE SIERRA.
DRY WEATHER RETURNS AFTER 12Z SUNDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHTER
WINDS, PRIMARILY WNW WITH PEAK GUSTS 20 KTS. WALLMANN
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT ON THE RIDGES AND MID SLOPES.
RH RECOVERY HAS BEEN POOR SO FAR WITH MANY LOCATIONS STILL IN THE
TEENS ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-80. AS THE COLD
FRONT NEARS, WINDS WILL INCREASE FURTHER WITH PEAK GUSTS TO 55 MPH
FROM THE S-SW ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA. RH WILL BE LOWEST SOUTH OF I-80
WITH MINIMUMS 10-20%. THE RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS ON TRACK.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE SIERRA FRONT
(ZONE 450) AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. RH WILL ALSO INCREASE
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT. WINDS WILL NOT WEAKEN UNTIL AFTER 00Z
FOR THE HIGHWAY 95 CORRIDOR FURTHER EAST AS THE FRONT WILL TAKE
LONGER TO GET THERE. BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT, EXPECT GOOD RH
RECOVERY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. WALLMANN
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING
NVZ003-005.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR LAKE TAHOE
IN NVZ002.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING
NVZ453-459.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING
NVZ001-004.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM PDT THIS
AFTERNOON NVZ450.
CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING
CAZ070-071.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING
CAZ073.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR LAKE TAHOE
IN CAZ072.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
920 AM PDT SAT OCT 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A PACIFIC STORM WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA TODAY
BEFORE LIFTING QUICKLY NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD
GRADUALLY DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED RAIN BANDS... COOLER UNSTABLE AIR WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AS WELL...ESPECIALLY FROM THE SANTA
CRUZ MOUNTAINS NORTHWARD. DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
SUNDAY WITH A WARMING TREND BEGINNING MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
REBUILDS ALONG THE COAST.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 08:35 AM PDT SATURDAY...FINE TUNING DETAILS IN
THE FORECAST FOR TODAY AND THIS EVENING. FRONTAL BAND IS
PROGRESSING EASTWARD AND HAS MARCHED INTO EAST BAY AND EXTENDS
SOUTH INTO MONTEREY COUNTY. GOOD BREAK IN PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH SF BAY LOOKING FOR A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER BEFORE
COOLER MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS MOVES ONSHORE. BACKED OFF
PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER SOMEWHAT THIS MORNING CENTRAL AND
NORTH BAY.
BROAD BRUSHED MUCH OF AREA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EVEN
NUMEROUS SHOWERS NORTH BAY THIS AFTERNOON AS BREAKS IN CLOUDS AND
SOLAR HEATING WORK ON THE MOIST DESTABILIZING AIRMASS. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CARDS AS WELL FROM ABOUT SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS
NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE OF ANY THREAT OF THUNDER
INTO THE BAY AREA WOULD BE MID AFTERNOON THRU EARLY EVENING. NORTH BAY
COULD EASILY SEE THUNDER ANYTIME THIS AFTERNOON. WOULD NOT RULE
OUT SMALL HAIL WITH SOME OF THE STORMS GIVEN RELATIVELY HIGH CAPE
VALUES. NAM FORECAST SOUNDING FOR STS THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS CAPES
OVER 500J WHICH IS PRETTY IMPRESSIVE FOR THIS AREA...BUT HELICITY
IS MUCH LOWER THAN WAS FORECAST YESTERDAY. WIND SHEAR STILL PRETTY
STRONG...BUT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR BREAKS DOWN ABOUT THE TIME
CONVECTION GETS GOING.
WIND ADVISORY IS MARGINAL GIVEN CURRENT WIND SPEEDS AND TREND IN
WIND WILL BE DOWNWARD THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN POTENTIAL IMPACTS WITH
DROUGHT STRESSED TREES AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT WINDS FOR SOME TIME
NOW...WILL LEAVE THE ADVISORY RIDE FOR NOW WITH GUSTS OVER 35 MPH
STILL LIKELY IN ELEVATED TERRAIN.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 02:28 AM PDT SATURDAY...
THE FORECAST FOCUS TODAY IS ON RAIN CHANCES AND PROBABILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS AND ANY SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
AS OF 09Z...A LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 40N/130W IS WELL EVIDENT
ON IR SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD TODAY...AND INTO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON BY 00Z SUN.
CURRENT RADAR SHOWS AN INITIAL BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS MOVING INTO
THE COASTAL NORTH BAY PRESENTLY. MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO BE
FOR LIGHT RAIN TO PUSH QUICKLY THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING.
TIMING IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT FROM PREVIOUS RUNS WHICH INDICATES
THAT SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE IMMEDIATE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
BY 12Z AND THE MONTEREY BAY AREA AROUND 15Z. HRRR INDICATES JUST A
QUICK SHOT...ABOUT 3-5 HOURS...OF LIGHT RAIN WITH RAPID MOVING
FRONTAL BANDS. AFTER THESE BANDS CLEAR THERE WILL BE A FEW HOURS
OF DRY WEATHER AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES WITH COLD ADVECTION
NOTED. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE BASIC INGREDIENTS NEEDED FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER
THE NORTH BAY. AN ANALYSIS OF FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWED A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH SOME SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY.
THE PROFILE REMAINS MOIST ENOUGH TO SUPPORT CONVECTION AS WELL.
THERE WILL BE A VIGOROUS WIND FIELD WITH 0-6KM SHEAR IN EXCESS OF
30KTS AND NOTED LOW LEVEL SHEAR AS WELL. IN ADDITION...A JET
STREAK WILL PASS THROUGH NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND LEAVE THE NORTH
BAY IN THE FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THE
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED HOWEVER NOTING
500 MB HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE AT THAT LEVEL.
THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT LIFT AND INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT SCATTERED
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE NORTH BAY
ESPECIALLY...WITH ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE EVEN AS FAR SOUTH AS
THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS. AGREE WITH SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK OF MARGINAL
SEVERE THREAT IN THE NORTH BAY...AND THEIR FORECAST OF POTENTIAL
LOW TOPPED SUPERCELL STRUCTURE IS REASONABLE GIVEN LOW FREEZING
HEIGHTS AND AMPLE SHEAR. NOTED FAVORABLE HODOGRAPH AS WELL TO
SUPPORT THIS FORECAST. LOW FREEZING HEIGHT WILL SUPPORT SMALL HAIL
POTENTIAL. SHEAR BECOMES MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL AFTER 21Z...AND NOTED
STORM MOTION WILL BE QUICK FROM THE SOUTHWEST. 0-6KM MEAN WIND OF
35-40KTS BY 21Z TO ALSO INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS IN
STORMS.
OTHER FACTOR OF NOTE TODAY IS WIND ADVISORY WHICH HAS BEEN
EXTENDED A FEW HOURS IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN. MARGINAL EVENT WILL
HAVE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GREATER IMPACT GIVEN THAT IT IS THE FIRST
WIND OF THE SEASON...AND DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE PRODUCED MORE DEAD
OR DYING TREES AND VEGETATION THIS YEAR. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH OR HIGHER IN THE HIGH TERRAIN AND COAST. CURRENT
GUSTS ALREADY NEAR 50 MPH IN SOME AREAS SO THIS LOOKS REASONABLE.
HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO RISE OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW EXITS THE AREA.
SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT AND DRYING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA AND
PRODUCE WARMING TEMPERATURES. BUT COOL NIGHTTIME LOWS EXPECTED IN
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE WARMING TREND. LIKELY TO SEE MANY
UPPER 30S IN THE FAVORED COOL INTERIOR VALLEYS. ESPECIALLY IN THE
NORTH BAY AND ALSO INTERIOR MONTEREY COUNTY.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 4:45 AM PDT SATURDAY...RAIN AND MVFR CIGS MOVING
INTO THE AREA WITH STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS BLOWING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED IN THE SFO BAY AREA AROUND 16Z
WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL KEEP A THREAT OF SHOWERS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN STS. WINDS
WILL SWITCH TO THE WEST AFTER 02Z IN MOST AREAS.
VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR THROUGH 21Z. LIGHT RAIN TURNING TO SHOWERS
AFTER 16Z. CIGS RISING INTO VFR RANGE AFTER 21Z. SHOWERS ENDING
WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST AFTER 02Z.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...CIGS COULD LOWER TO MVFR RANGE AFTER
14Z AS RAIN SHOWERS MOVE INTO THE MRY BAY AREA. STRONGEST
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE IN THE SALINAS VALLEYS WITH WINDS TO 20
KT. WINDS EXPECTED TO SWITCH TO SOUTHWESTERLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 09:10 AM PDT SATURDAY...A STRONG SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE OREGON COAST WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD TODAY...RESULTING IN STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH AND SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN WAKE OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE REGION TODAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...WIND ADVISORY...NORTH BAY COAST AND MOUNTAINS
WIND ADVISORY...SAN MATEO AND SANTA CRUZ COUNTY COASTS
WIND ADVISORY...SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS
SCA...SF BAY SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 3 PM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 PM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 PM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 PM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 PM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 PM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM 2 PM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM FROM 2 PM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM FROM 2 PM
GLW...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 2 PM
GLW...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM UNTIL 2 PM
GLW...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM UNTIL 2 PM
SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: KBB
AVIATION/MARINE: RGASS
VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
442 AM PDT SAT OCT 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A PACIFIC STORM WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA ON
SATURDAY BEFORE LIFTING QUICKLY NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA BY
SUNDAY MORNING. IT WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND BECOME LOCALLY STRONG
AND GUSTY NEAR THE COAST AND IN THE HILLS SATURDAY MORNING. AT THE SAME
TIME...RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. THE FRONT WILL
PASS THROUGH QUICKLY ON SATURDAY MORNING...BUT COOLER UNSTABLE AIR
WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO MUCH OF THE AREA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AS
WELL...ESPECIALLY FROM THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS NORTHWARD. DRIER
AND COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH A WARMING TREND
BEGINNING MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS ALONG THE COAST.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 02:28 AM PDT SATURDAY...
THE FORECAST FOCUS TODAY IS ON RAIN CHANCES AND PROBABILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS AND ANY SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
AS OF 09Z...A LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 40N/130W IS WELL EVIDENT
ON IR SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD TODAY...AND INTO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON BY 00Z SUN.
CURRENT RADAR SHOWS AN INITIAL BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS MOVING INTO
THE COASTAL NORTH BAY PRESENTLY. MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO BE
FOR LIGHT RAIN TO PUSH QUICKLY THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING.
TIMING IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT FROM PREVIOUS RUNS WHICH INDICATES
THAT SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE IMMEDIATE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
BY 12Z AND THE MONTEREY BAY AREA AROUND 15Z. HRRR INDICATES JUST A
QUICK SHOT...ABOUT 3-5 HOURS...OF LIGHT RAIN WITH RAPID MOVING
FRONTAL BANDS. AFTER THESE BANDS CLEAR THERE WILL BE A FEW HOURS
OF DRY WEATHER AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES WITH COLD ADVECTION
NOTED. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE BASIC INGREDIENTS NEEDED FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER
THE NORTH BAY. AN ANALYSIS OF FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWED A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH SOME SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY.
THE PROFILE REMAINS MOIST ENOUGH TO SUPPORT CONVECTION AS WELL.
THERE WILL BE A VIGOROUS WIND FIELD WITH 0-6KM SHEAR IN EXCESS OF
30KTS AND NOTED LOW LEVEL SHEAR AS WELL. IN ADDITION...A JET
STREAK WILL PASS THROUGH NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND LEAVE THE NORTH
BAY IN THE FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THE
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED HOWEVER NOTING
500 MB HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE AT THAT LEVEL.
THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT LIFT AND INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT SCATTERED
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE NORTH BAY
ESPECIALLY...WITH ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE EVEN AS FAR SOUTH AS
THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS. AGREE WITH SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK OF MARGINAL
SEVERE THREAT IN THE NORTH BAY...AND THEIR FORECAST OF POTENTIAL
LOW TOPPED SUPERCELL STRUCTURE IS REASONABLE GIVEN LOW FREEZING
HEIGHTS AND AMPLE SHEAR. NOTED FAVORABLE HODOGRAPH AS WELL TO
SUPPORT THIS FORECAST. LOW FREEZING HEIGHT WILL SUPPORT SMALL HAIL
POTENTIAL. SHEAR BECOMES MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL AFTER 21Z...AND NOTED
STORM MOTION WILL BE QUICK FROM THE SOUTHWEST. 0-6KM MEAN WIND OF
35-40KTS BY 21Z TO ALSO INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS IN
STORMS.
OTHER FACTOR OF NOTE TODAY IS WIND ADVISORY WHICH HAS BEEN
EXTENDED A FEW HOURS IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN. MARGINAL EVENT WILL
HAVE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GREATER IMPACT GIVEN THAT IT IS THE FIRST
WIND OF THE SEASON...AND DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE PRODUCED MORE DEAD
OR DYING TREES AND VEGETATION THIS YEAR. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH OR HIGHER IN THE HIGH TERRAIN AND COAST. CURRENT
GUSTS ALREADY NEAR 50 MPH IN SOME AREAS SO THIS LOOKS REASONABLE.
HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO RISE OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW EXITS THE AREA.
SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT AND DRYING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA AND
PRODUCE WARMING TEMPERATURES. BUT COOL NIGHTTIME LOWS EXPECTED IN
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE WARMING TREND. LIKELY TO SEE MANY
UPPER 30S IN THE FAVORED COOL INTERIOR VALLEYS. ESPECIALLY IN THE
NORTH BAY AND ALSO INTERIOR MONTEREY COUNTY.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 4:45 AM PDT SATURDAY...RAIN AND MVFR CIGS MOVING
INTO THE AREA WITH STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS BLOWING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED IN THE SFO BAY AREA AROUND 16Z
WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL KEEP A THREAT OF SHOWERS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN STS. WINDS
WILL SWITCH TO THE WEST AFTER 02Z IN MOST AREAS.
VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR THROUGH 21Z. LIGHT RAIN TURNING TO SHOWERS
AFTER 16Z. CIGS RISING INTO VFR RANGE AFTER 21Z. SHOWERS ENDING
WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST AFTER 02Z.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...CIGS COULD LOWER TO MVFR RANGE AFTER
14Z AS RAIN SHOWERS MOVE INTO THE MRY BAY AREA. STRONGEST
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE IN THE SALINAS VALLEYS WITH WINDS TO 20
KT. WINDS EXPECTED TO SWITCH TO SOUTHWESTERLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 02:28 AM PDT SATURDAY...LOW PRESSURE SITUATED WEST
OF CAPE MENDOCINO WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN TONIGHT RESULTING IN
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. GALE FORCE WINDS
WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS WITH STRONG
SMALL CRAFT WINDS DEVELOPING ELSEWHERE. A LINE OF RAIN AND SHOWERS
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE NORTH OF THE GOLDEN GATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL EASE AND SHOWERS WILL END BY SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...WIND ADVISORY...NORTH BAY COAST AND MOUNTAINS
WIND ADVISORY...SAN MATEO AND SANTA CRUZ COUNTY COASTS
WIND ADVISORY...SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS
SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 3 PM
SCA...SF BAY SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 3 PM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 PM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 PM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 PM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 PM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 PM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM FROM 2 PM
GLW...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 2 PM
GLW...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM UNTIL 2 PM
GLW...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM UNTIL 2 PM
SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: JOHNSON
AVIATION/MARINE: W PI
VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
256 AM PDT SAT OCT 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A PACIFIC STORM WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA ON
SATURDAY BEFORE LIFTING QUICKLY NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA BY
SUNDAY MORNING. IT WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND BECOME LOCALLY STRONG
AND GUSTY NEAR THE COAST AND IN THE HILLS SATURDAY MORNING. AT THE SAME
TIME...RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. THE FRONT WILL
PASS THROUGH QUICKLY ON SATURDAY MORNING...BUT COOLER UNSTABLE AIR
WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO MUCH OF THE AREA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AS
WELL...ESPECIALLY FROM THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS NORTHWARD. DRIER
AND COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH A WARMING TREND
BEGINNING MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS ALONG THE COAST.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 02:28 AM PDT SATURDAY...
THE FORECAST FOCUS TODAY IS ON RAIN CHANCES AND PROBABILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS AND ANY SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
AS OF 09Z...A LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 40N/130W IS WELL EVIDENT
ON IR SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD TODAY...AND INTO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON BY 00Z SUN.
CURRENT RADAR SHOWS AN INITIAL BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS MOVING INTO
THE COASTAL NORTH BAY PRESENTLY. MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO BE
FOR LIGHT RAIN TO PUSH QUICKLY THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING.
TIMING IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT FROM PREVIOUS RUNS WHICH INDICATES
THAT SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE IMMEDIATE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
BY 12Z AND THE MONTEREY BAY AREA AROUND 15Z. HRRR INDICATES JUST A
QUICK SHOT...ABOUT 3-5 HOURS...OF LIGHT RAIN WITH RAPID MOVING
FRONTAL BANDS. AFTER THESE BANDS CLEAR THERE WILL BE A FEW HOURS
OF DRY WEATHER AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES WITH COLD ADVECTION
NOTED. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE BASIC INGREDIENTS NEEDED FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER
THE NORTH BAY. AN ANALYSIS OF FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWED A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH SOME SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY.
THE PROFILE REMAINS MOIST ENOUGH TO SUPPORT CONVECTION AS WELL.
THERE WILL BE A VIGOROUS WIND FIELD WITH 0-6KM SHEAR IN EXCESS OF
30KTS AND NOTED LOW LEVEL SHEAR AS WELL. IN ADDITION...A JET
STREAK WILL PASS THROUGH NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND LEAVE THE NORTH
BAY IN THE FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THE
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED HOWEVER NOTING
500 MB HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE AT THAT LEVEL.
THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT LIFT AND INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT SCATTERED
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE NORTH BAY
ESPECIALLY...WITH ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE EVEN AS FAR SOUTH AS
THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS. AGREE WITH SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK OF MARGINAL
SEVERE THREAT IN THE NORTH BAY...AND THEIR FORECAST OF POTENTIAL
LOW TOPPED SUPERCELL STRUCTURE IS REASONABLE GIVEN LOW FREEZING
HEIGHTS AND AMPLE SHEAR. NOTED FAVORABLE HODOGRAPH AS WELL TO
SUPPORT THIS FORECAST. LOW FREEZING HEIGHT WILL SUPPORT SMALL HAIL
POTENTIAL. SHEAR BECOMES MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL AFTER 21Z...AND NOTED
STORM MOTION WILL BE QUICK FROM THE SOUTHWEST. 0-6KM MEAN WIND OF
35-40KTS BY 21Z TO ALSO INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS IN
STORMS.
OTHER FACTOR OF NOTE TODAY IS WIND ADVISORY WHICH HAS BEEN
EXTENDED A FEW HOURS IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN. MARGINAL EVENT WILL
HAVE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GREATER IMPACT GIVEN THAT IT IS THE FIRST
WIND OF THE SEASON...AND DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE PRODUCED MORE DEAD
OR DYING TREES AND VEGETATION THIS YEAR. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH OR HIGHER IN THE HIGH TERRAIN AND COAST. CURRENT
GUSTS ALREADY NEAR 50 MPH IN SOME AREAS SO THIS LOOKS REASONABLE.
HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO RISE OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW EXITS THE AREA.
SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT AND DRYING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA AND
PRODUCE WARMING TEMPERATURES. BUT COOL NIGHTTIME LOWS EXPECTED IN
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE WARMING TREND. LIKELY TO SEE MANY
UPPER 30S IN THE FAVORED COOL INTERIOR VALLEYS. ESPECIALLY IN THE
NORTH BAY AND ALSO INTERIOR MONTEREY COUNTY.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 10:51 PM PDT FRIDAY...FOR 06Z TAFS. AN
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
SITUATED OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL BRING INCREASING
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT AND WET RUNWAYS BY MORNING. T-STORMS
REMAIN A CONCERT FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. LIGHT
SOUTH WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHEASTERLY AND STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT. -RA
EXPECTED AROUND 11Z TONIGHT. BY SATURDAY MORNING MODERATE AND
GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS AND WET RUNWAYS WILL IMPACT THE MORNING
TRAFFIC. WINDS EXPECTED TO VEER SOUTHWESTERLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT.
-SHRA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND 12Z-15Z SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY
MORNING SOUTHEAST WINDS AND WET RUNWAYS WILL IMPACT AREA
TERMINALS. WINDS EXPECTED TO VEER SOUTHWESTERLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 02:28 AM PDT SATURDAY...LOW PRESSURE SITUATED WEST
OF CAPE MENDOCINO WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN TONIGHT RESULTING IN
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. GALE FORCE WINDS
WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS WITH STRONG
SMALL CRAFT WINDS DEVELOPING ELSEWHERE. A LINE OF RAIN AND SHOWERS
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE NORTH OF THE GOLDEN GATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL EASE AND SHOWERS WILL END BY SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...WIND ADVISORY...NORTH BAY COAST AND MOUNTAINS
WIND ADVISORY...SAN MATEO AND SANTA CRUZ COUNTY COASTS
WIND ADVISORY...SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS
SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 3 PM
SCA...SF BAY SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 3 PM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 PM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 PM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 PM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM FROM 2 PM
GLW...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 2 PM
GLW...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM UNTIL 2 PM
GLW...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM UNTIL 2 PM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 PM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 PM
SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: JOHNSON
AVIATION/MARINE: W PI
VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
620 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND MAY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHOWERS. COOL AND BLUSTERY WEATHER WILL
FOLLOW ON SUNDAY WITH THE CHANCE OF A SPOT SHOWER. DRY WEATHER
PREVAILS EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH A WARMING TREND BY WEDNESDAY. A
COLD FRONT MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS LATE WEDNESDAY. COOLER AIR
FOLLOWS BEHIND THE FRONT FOR LATER IN THE WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MAY BRING WET WEATHER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...BEFORE COLDER AIR ARRIVES FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
620 PM UPDATE...
RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS BAND OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT MOVING E
FROM NY STATE. HRRR HAS AN EXCELLENT HANDLE ON THIS ACTIVITY AND
BRINGS IT THROUGH MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY TONIGHT...
STARTING IN WEST AROUND 8 PM AND CLOSER TO 11 PM IN E. ALL OF THIS
PUSHES OFFSHORE BY 2 OR 3 AM.
ADJUSTED POPS TO REFLECT THIS THINKING. HRRR DOES SHOW MOST OF
THIS STAYING ALONG AND N OF ROUTE 2 CORRIDOR AS DISCUSSED
EARLIER...WHILE ACTIVITY ALONG SOUTHERN EDGE SHOULD TEND TO
DISSIPATE SOMEWHAT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...ONLY
A FEW HUNDRETHS AT MOST.
BEHIND FRONT...DECENT COLD ADVECTION GETS UNDERWAY ON INCREASING
W/NW WINDS. LOWS IN 40S TO NEAR 50 LOOK GOOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER AHEAD FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. SEE A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WHICH MAY
TRIGGER A FEW DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS ON SUNDAY. BIGGEST QUESTION
IS THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE...BUT SOUNDINGS SHOW THERE IS JUST ENOUGH.
ASIDE FROM A FEW SHOWERS...ANTICIPATE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WHICH WILL
LIMIT DIURNAL HEATING. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH
60 IN MANY LOCATIONS. SUNDAY WILL ALSO SEE STRONG GUSTY WESTERLY
WINDS OF 20-30 MPH DUE TO STEEP LAPSE RATES AND THE STRONG CAA STILL
ALOFT. WENT A FEW MPH HIGHER THEN GUIDANCE AT IT SEEMS THAT MODELS
ARE UNDERDOING THE GUST POTENTIAL WITHIN THE PATTERN. APPEARS THAT
THE GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE ON TRACK...ESP ON WHAT IS OCCURRING
RIGHT NOW.
WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIE DOWN OVERNIGHT BUT STILL REMAIN A TAD GUSTY.
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST. TEMPS MAY DROP TO THE LOW 40S AS GUSTY WINDS
WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* DRY MON/TUE WITH WARMING TREND
* MILD WED WITH FEW AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS
* A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY BY END OF WEEK BUT TURNING COLDER NEXT WEEKEND
DETAILS...
MON AND TUE...
RIDGING BUILDS OVER NORTHEAST IN ADVANCE OF UPPER LOW LIFTING ACROSS
UPPER GREAT LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY OVER MID ATLANTIC STATES
WILL MAINTAIN DRY BUT BRISK W/NW FLOW MON WHICH DIMINISHES AND
BECOMES MORE S/SW TUE AS HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE. HIGHS STAY IN 50S MON
BUT SHOULD REACH LOW-MID 60S TUE WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE
BASED UPON MODEL 2M TEMPS.
WED...
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING UNSEASONABLY MILD SW FLOW TO
REGION. DESPITE FACT 12Z MODELS BRING FRONT INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
DURING MORNING AND MOVE IT OFFSHORE WED EVENING....MOISTURE IS
LIMITED AND DYNAMICS ARE RATHER WEAK ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
THEREFORE ONLY EXPECTING SOME CLOUDINESS AND PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS.
THIS SHOULD STILL ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH 60S IF NOT 70 ACROSS PARTS OF
EASTERN MA SINCE COOL AIR LAGS WELL BEHIND FRONT.
THU...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM OH VALLEY TO MID ATLANTIC COAST. DRIER NW
FLOW PREVAILS WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN 50S.
FRI AND SAT...
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES DRAMATICALLY AS MODELS STRUGGLE WITH
DEVELOPMENT OF BROAD EASTERN US TROUGH/CLOSED LOW FROM COMBINATION
OF PACIFIC ENERGY AND UPPER LOW E OF HUDSON BAY. 12Z ECMWF IS MUCH
FARTHER S ACROSS CAROLINAS AND DEEPER WITH ITS UPPER LOW BY NEXT
WEEKEND...AS COMPARED TO 12Z GFS WHICH TAKES UPPER LOW ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS HAS IMPLICATIONS ON HOW EVERYTHING PLAYS
OUT FRI INTO SAT WITH ECMWF PAINTING A MUCH WETTER SCENARIO THAN GFS
WHICH SHOWS MORE PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM EXITING NEW ENGLAND SAT. FOR NOW
WE WILL USE BLEND OF MODELS TO IRON OUT DIFFERENCES WHICH GIVES
CHANCE POPS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...BUT WE MAY NEED TO EXTEND MENTION
OF PRECIP INTO SAT SHOULD ECMWF SOLUTION BECOME MORE LIKELY. DOES
LOOK LIKE SHOT OF COLDER AIR ARRIVES NEXT WEEKEND EITHER WAY.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...VFR. BAND OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND 00Z-06Z AND MAY BRING BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS...MAINLY
ACROSS N MA AND SW NH. MAY SEE A FEW GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS TOWARD
DAYBREAK NEAR COAST.
TOMORROW...COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE IN THE MORNING BUT LOTS OF
POST FRONTAL CLOUDS IN THE BKN040 CATEGORY. LOW RISK OF A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. WEST WINDS WILL GUSTS 20-30 KT IN
THE AFTERNOON.
TOMORROW NIGHT...VFR. A FEW GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE.
KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
SHOWERS 03Z-06Z SUN BUT MORE LIKELY CONDITIONS STAY VFR.
KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MON AND TUE...VFR.
WED...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCT SHOWERS.
THU...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...
COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE WATERS 06Z-12Z WITH WNW WINDS
INCREASING TO 20-30 KT. SOUTHERN WATERS WILL SEE OCCASIONAL WNW
GALES...SO HAVE HOISTED A GALE WARNING. A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
POSSIBLE NORTHERN MA WATERS.
SUNDAY...
WNW WINDS REMAIN STRONG AT 20-30KT. ANTICIPATE WNW GALES ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN WATERS BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HAVE EXTENDED THE GALE
WARNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE GUSTS. LOW RISK OF A FEW LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE GOOD VSBY.
SUNDAY NIGHT...
WNW GALES WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE BUT GUSTS OF 30 KTS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT IN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN. OTHERWISE
GOOD VSBYS AND DRY WEATHER.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MONDAY...HIGH PRES OVER MID ATLC WILL KEEP W/NW WINDS NEAR SCA EARLY
BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH DURING AFTERNOON. SEAS NEAR 5 FT ON OUTER
WATERS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AS WELL.
TUESDAY...HIGH PRES MOVES OFF MID ATLC COAST RESULTING S/SW FLOW
ACROSS WATERS BUT WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA.
WEDNESDAY...INCREASING SW FLOW AHEAD OF COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM
GREAT LAKES. WINDS AND SEAS MAY REACH SCA...MAINLY ON OPEN S COASTAL
WATERS...BEFORE FRONT BRINGS WIND SHIFT TO NW DURING EVENING.
NOTHING MORE THAN FEW SHOWERS EXPECTED WITH FRONT.
THURSDAY...HIGH PRES BUILDS FROM OH VALLEY TO MID ATLC COAST...
BRINGING DIMINISHING NW WINDS AND SEAS.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
ANZ232>235-237-254>256.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ230-231-236-
250-251.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN/JWD
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN/JWD
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...JWD
AVIATION...DUNTEN/JWD
MARINE...DUNTEN/JWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
422 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY RAIN
SHOWERS. IN ITS WAKE...A BRISK AND COOLER DAY IS EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS EXPECTED. DRIER AND WARMER
CONDITIONS RETURN ON MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE
REGION. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ARRIVES LATER TUESDAY EVENING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT...SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA ARE
UNDER A GREAT DEAL OF SUNSHINE AS TEMPERATURES HAVE RESPONDED
NICELY...WELL INTO THE 60S FOR THE VALLEY LOCATIONS AND UPPER 50S
FOR THE TERRAIN. FOR THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST
AREA...CLOUDS HAVE QUICKLY INCREASED AS REGIONAL RADARS SHOW AN
APPROXIMATELY 100 MILE WIDE BAND OF SCT-BKN SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM
THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY INTO THE TUG HILL AND EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO. AS A POWERFUL UPPER JET /OVER 150KTS/ DIVES THROUGH
THE CENTRAL LAKES REGION AND LEFT EXIT REGION DYNAMICS INTO
EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NE...EXPECTATION IS FOR THESE SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE EXPANDING INTO THIS EVENING. LATEST HRRR REFLECTIVITY
FORECAST POINT TOWARD THIS INITIAL BAND OF SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION WITH ANOTHER BATCH DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF
THIS INITIAL ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY BE DUE TO THE
UPPER SHORT WAVE FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS UPSTATE NY.
FURTHERMORE...AS H850 TEMPS DROP BACK TO OR BELOW 0C...LAKE EFFECT
ENHANCEMENTS WILL LIKELY AID IN THESE SHOWERS AS WELL. LOOKING
CLOSER AT THUNDER POTENTIAL...EARLIER TODAY WE DID OBSERVE A
COUPLE OF CG/S JUST NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. SHOWALTER VALUES AT
THAT TIME WERE BETWEEN POSITIVE 1-2C. AT THIS TIME...WE WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER ACROSS
THE DACKS REGION WHERE LAPSE RATES WILL BE A LITTLE STEEPER AND
ENHANCED LIFT FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER JET ORIENTATION.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL VARY DUE TO CLOUD COVERAGE AS THERE WILL BE
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...HOWEVER...WIND MAGNITUDES WILL LIKELY REMAIN
ELEVATED. GUIDANCE NUMBERS A TAD WARMER AS WE WILL BLEND MOS WITH
PREVIOUS MIN TEMP GRIDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY...AS MENTIONED IN THE EXCELLENT PREVIOUS FORECAST
DISCUSSION...THE POTENT UPPER JET CORE WILL BE OVER THE REGION AS
STRONG H500 SHORT WAVE DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS UPSTATE NY. THIS
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ADDITIONAL CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION WITH THE BEST CONCENTRATION OF THOSE SHOWERS INTO THE
TERRAIN /ESPECIALLY DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO/. H850 TEMPS PLUNGE
BACK TO BELOW 0C WITH FAIRLY STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
FURTHERMORE...WIND MAGNITUDES NEAR THE MIXING LAYER HEIGHTS NEAR
H875 SUGGEST WE WILL EFFECTIVELY TAP INTO 30KT WINDS. SO A RATHER
BRISK DAY IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH THOSE SHOWERS. DUE TO THE
CLOUDS...SHOWERS AND BRISK WINDS...TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 50S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND
40S ELSEWHERE.
SUNDAY NIGHT...DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION WITH
AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SOME SHOWERS WILL LINGER...MAINLY ACROSS
THE TERRAIN...AND AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS...SOME WET SNOW IS
POSSIBLE TO MIX IN ACROSS THE TERRAIN. CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO
BREAK UP FURTHER INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT WHICH WILL
SLOWLY SPREAD NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT. CLOUD BE RATHER CHILLY NIGHT
WITH MAINLY 30S FOR THE REGION /NEAR 40F FOR ALONG THE HUDSON/MOHAWK
RIVER BASINS/.
MONDAY...MODERATING THERMAL COLUMNS WILL BE UNDERWAY AS SURFACE
RIDGE AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT SHOULD IMPROVE OUR SKY CONDITION
FURTHER. SURFACE TEMPERATURE RESPONSE SHOULD ALLOW VALLEY
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60F FOR MID HUDSON
VALLEY LOCATIONS AND UPR 40S FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
MONDAY NIGHT...MODEL SUITE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A PASSAGE OF
A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. ISENTROPIC LIFT
INCREASES WITH THE BEST LOWERING OF THE CPD/S MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF ALBANY. IN THESE LOCATIONS...WE WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...A GENERAL INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVERAGE AS OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAIN MAINLY INTO THE 40S UNDER
INCREASING WARM ADVECTION.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE A RELATIVELY WARM DAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT...EXPECTED TO AFFECT OUR REGION TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY. SO...INTERVALS OF CLOUDS AND SUN TUESDAY WITH HIGHS
WELL INTO THE 60S.
UPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRACKS INTO THE REGION FROM
THE GREAT LAKES AND CANADA...WITH SHOWERS AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE
COLD FRONT...THEN COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE
MID 50S NORTH TO MID 60S SOUTH. TRAILING UPPER ENERGY DIVES SOUTH
OUT OF CANADA THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...POTENTIALLY BECOMING QUITE
A DYNAMIC UPPER CUT OFF LOW. HOWEVER...THE VARIOUS SETS OF GUIDANCE
SUGGEST VERY DIFFERENT TRACKS...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN POTENTIAL OBSERVED WEATHER IN OUR REGION.
FOR NOW THE RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES SEEMS TO BE TRACKING RIGHT OVER
THE INTERIOR NORTHEASTERN U.S. OR THROUGH THE CAROLINAS/VIRGINIA...
OR ANYWHERE IN BETWEEN. AS THE UPPER ENERGY DIVES SOUTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...WHEREVER IT ENDS UP...HOWEVER STRONG OR WEAK IT IS...AND
WHATEVER THE TIMING EVENTUALLY IS...GENERALLY MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN
WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL. MIDLEVEL AND HIGH CLOUDS DEVELOP
AND THICKEN AS MOISTURE IS INCREASINGLY DRAWN NORTHWARD INTO THE
DEVELOPING UPPER ENERGY...AND STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY UPPER JET
ENERGY.
SO...WITH SUCH A HUGE SPREAD IN GUIDANCE OUT IN THE 6-7 DAY TIME
FRAME...JUST GOING WITH BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES AND
PROBABILITIES FOR SHOWERS INCREASING TO CHANCE BY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY LINGERING INTO SATURDAY. SOME
POSSIBLE SNOW SHOWERS IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGHS
THURSDAY IN THE MID 40S NORTH TO MID TO UPPER 50S SOUTH. HIGHS
FRIDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S NORTH AND AROUND 50 TO LOWER 50S
SOUTH. BY SATURDAY...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO MID TO UPPER
40S SOUTH.
WILL KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR NEXT WEEKEND TO SEE IF SOMETHING
SIGNIFICANT DOES DEVELOP OR IF LIMITED UPSTREAM DATA THIS FAR OUT
CAUSED GUIDANCE TO CREATE A PHANTOM THAT MAY DISAPPEAR AS WE GET
CLOSER. THERE IS STILL QUITE A RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BROKEN SKIES WILL BECOME OVERCAST THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. CLOUD BASES GENERALLY VFR BUT MVFR AT OUR HIGHER ELEVATION
TAF SITE KPSF.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWER COVERAGE EXPECTED FROM THIS
EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS COLD FRONT AND THEN AN UPPER LEVEL
COLD POOL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. GIGS TEMPO IFR IN RAIN SHOWERS
ALTHOUGH KPSF MAY SEE BRIEF IFR.
WINDS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE WINDS
WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST WITH PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT TONIGHT AND INCREASE IN SPEED WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS ON SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-TUE: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE NIGHT-WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS DUE TO THE WET WEATHER OVER THE PAST 3 TO 4 DAYS.
A COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL IMPACT THE
REGION WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. BRISK AND
COOL CONDITIONS FOR EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND ARE
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. WEST TO NORTHWEST OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME
GUSTS IN THE 30 TO 35 MPH RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THE RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...BEFORE
SLOWLY FALLING TO 50 TO 70 PERCENT ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
RIVERS FLOWS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAINLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING INTO SUNDAY WITH
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN
INCH. SOME CONTROLLED DAM RELEASES WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACTS
IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM ON RIVER POINTS.
DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...WHICH WILL ALLOW LEVELS TO RECEDE FURTHER.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
200 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH BRISK AND COOL CONDITIONS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 150 PM...CLOUDS HAVE THINNED OUT ACROSS THE REGION AT THE
PRESENT TIME...HOWEVER...REGIONAL RADAR UPSTREAM DOES REVEAL A
BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS APPROACHING LAKE ONTARIO. IN FACT...RECENT
NLDN DETECTED ONE CG WITHIN THE PAST HOUR. PER HRRR AND CURRENT
EXTRAPOLATION OF UPSTREAM ACTIVITY...WE WILL HOLD BACK POPS/WX FOR
ANOTHER COUPLE MORE HOURS AND LEAVE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES INTO
PORTIONS OF THE DACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY.
OTHERWISE...TEMPS LOOK ON TARGET WITH ONLY MINOR UPDATES TO HOURLY
GRIDS PER OBSERVATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE BEST CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IMPACTS THE FCST AREA WITH ENOUGH QG LIFT GENERATED
FOR ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS OVER MOST OF THE REGION...AND NUMEROUS
SHOWERS OVER THE WRN DACKS/WRN MOHAWK VALLEY AS SOME LAKE MOISTURE
IS UTILIZED. AS THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION MENTIONED...THE LOW AND
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN ACROSS THE REGION WITH SMALL AMOUNTS
OF INSTABILITY /100-300 J/KG/. THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
GENERALLY IN THE 6.5-7.5C/KM RANGE ON THE NAM/GFS. A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER MAY BE POSSIBLE FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND WEST
WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE GENERAL THUNDER FCST BY SPC IN THE NEW DAY
1. THE BEST JET DYNAMICS SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 40S WITH SOME U30S OVER THE SRN DACKS...SRN GREENS
AND ERN CATSKILLS.
SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...THE POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT ACROSS
THE REGION. BY 18Z SUN...THE CLOSED H500 CIRCULATION WILL BE NEAR
NRN ME AND NEW BRUNSWICK. INSTABILITY SHOWERS WILL
OCCUR...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ONTARIO. A STRONG COLD ADVECTION REGIME WILL IMPACT ERN NY AND
WRN NEW ENGLAND WITH THE STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. H850 WINDS
INCREASE TO 35-45 KTS. DECENT MOMENTUM TRANSFER WILL FAVOR BRISK
CONDITIONS WITH W TO NW WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS IN
THE 30 TO 35 MPH RANGE. MAX TEMPS WILL RUN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO M50S IN THE VALLEYS...AND M40S
TO NEAR 50F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. THE WINDS WILL ONLY SLIGHTLY
DECREASE OVERNIGHT...SINCE A NOTICEABLE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
SET UP OVER THE AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST OF NEW BRUNSWICK TOWARDS
LABRADOR. ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. LOWS WILL BE CHILLY IN THE 30S IN MOST
LOCATIONS WITH SOME U30S TO L40S IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND CT RIVER VALLEY.
MON-MON NIGHT...MODERATING TREND FOR TEMPS AS SFC HIGH RIDGES IN
FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...AND H500 ANTICYCLONE BUILDS IN FROM
ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO OPEN THE WEEK IN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME.
H850 TEMPS SURGE BACK TO +6C TO +11C BY 00Z/TUE ACCORDING TO THE
GFS WITH TEMPS TRENDING ABOVE NORMAL BY TUE. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
INCREASE MON NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS OVER THE WRN DACKS
LATE. LOWS WILL BE MILDER IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S IN MOST
LOCATIONS...EXCEPT SOME MID AND U30S OVER SRN VT...THE
BERKSHIRES...SRN DACKS AND PARTS OF THE ERN CATSKILLS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT AMPLIFYING THE
LONGWAVE PATTERN AS WE HEAD THROUGH NEXT WEEK. RIDGING OVER THE
REGION SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST TUESDAY WITH A TROUGH RETURNING. THIS
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO GET REINFORCED LATE IN THE WEEK. DIFFERENCES
IN THE GUIDANCE GROW AS THEY DEAL WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY DIVING
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA AND ITS IMPACTS ON THE LONGWAVE
PATTERN AND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW/SYSTEM.
MILD DAY EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY WITH BROAD/DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
REGION AS RIDGING SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND TROUGH/LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACH. HIGHS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
THE LOW PASSES WELL TO OUR NORTH AND WEST WITH ITS TRAILING COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
ACCOMPANIED BY SOME SHOWERS. WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE BIT COOLER
HOWEVER TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL BY 5 TO
10 DEGREES. THE COLD FRONT MOVES GRADUALLY OFF TO OUR EAST...HOWEVER
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL NEED TO SWING THROUGH.
A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AS WE HEAD INTO
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. HIGHER PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN
ON THURSDAY WITH THE FLOW ALOFT FLAT AS THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN
SHORT WAVES. HEIGHTS EXPECTED TO BEGIN FALLING THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS RETURNING ON FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BROKEN SKIES WILL BECOME OVERCAST THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. CLOUD BASES GENERALLY VFR BUT MVFR AT OUR HIGHER ELEVATION
TAF SITE KPSF.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWER COVERAGE EXPECTED FROM THIS
EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS COLD FRONT AND THEN AN UPPER LEVEL
COLD POOL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. GIGS TEMPO IFR IN RAIN SHOWERS
ALTHOUGH KPSF MAY SEE BRIEF IFR.
WINDS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE WINDS
WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST WITH PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT TONIGHT AND INCREASE IN SPEED WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS ON SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-TUE: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE NIGHT-WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS DUE TO THE WET WEATHER OVER THE PAST 3 TO 4 DAYS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH THIS
MORNING. A COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH
FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH BRISK AND COOL CONDITIONS FOR EASTERN NEW
YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. WEST TO NORTHWEST OF 10 TO 20 MPH
WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 30 TO 35 MPH RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 45 TO 70 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
INCREASE TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...BEFORE FALLING TO 50 TO 70
PERCENT ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
RIVERS FLOWS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAINLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY WITH
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN
INCH. SOME CONTROLLED DAM RELEASES WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACTS
IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM ON RIVER POINTS.
DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL ALLOW LEVELS TO RECEDE FURTHER.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/WASULA
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
149 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A SHORTWAVE DIGGING ACROSS
THE EASTERN GULF AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE
DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
OVER THE TEXAS GULF COAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH IN THE EVENING...WITH A DRAINAGE FLOW OVERNIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 903 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014/
..DRYING OUT WITH A RETURN TO SUNSHINE THIS WEEKEND...
UPDATE...A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST BUT THEY
ARE LIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE TO FADE AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE
IN FROM THE WEST. THE MIAMI SOUNDING SHOWS THAT THE PWAT HAS
FALLEN TO 1.64 INCHES AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
MAX RAINFALL AMOUNT TODAY WAS REGISTERED JUST EAST OF DOWNTOWN
HOMESTEAD...WITH A MESONET SITE REGISTERING 5.11 INCHES. SOME
MINOR STREET FLOODING WAS REPORTED IN SE MIAMI-DADE COUNTY TODAY,
BUT THE HEAVIEST RAIN STAYED JUST OFF THE COAST TO PREVENT MORE
SERIOUS FLOODING FROM OCCURRING.
A NICE WEEKEND IS IN STORE AHEAD WITH A RETURN TO SUNSHINE!
/GREGORIA
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 732 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014/
AVIATION...
BACK EDGE OF BKN/OVC CLOUDS BETWEEN 3000 AND 5000 FT ASSOCIATED
WITH LOW PRES OVER WRN BAHAMAS IS CURRENTLY CLOSE TO THE EAST
COAST TERMINAL SITES AND SHOULD CLEAR THE COAST BETWEEN 03Z-05Z.
CONDITIONS REMAINING VFR DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS.
FEW/SCT CLOUDS 3000-4000 FT EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY. WINDS THIS
EVENING NE 15-20 KT BECOMING MORE N TOWARDS DAYBREAK AND
CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY. /MOLLEDA
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014/
DISCUSSION...
THE MAJOR SYNOPTIC FEATURES INFLUENCING THE REGION INCLUDE AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH BUILDING INTO THE EASTERN GULF...A SURFACE LOW EXTENDING
ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS AND
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS. WITH STRONG
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION...OVER-RUNNING ACROSS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO GENERATE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND SOUTH FLORIDA...WITH MOST OF THE SHOWERS
CONCENTRATED ACROSS BISCAYNE BAY AND SOUTHEAST MIAMI DADE COUNTY.
THE GENERAL CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE IS FOR A DRYING TREND OVER
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF MID TO UPPER
LEVEL DRIER AIR STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE REGION...THE BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE STRAITS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD AND HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINNING TO BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEAST SHOULD ALL
CONTRIBUTE TO THE DRYING TREND. THE GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE
LATEST HRRR RUN...SEEMED A LITTLE TOO FAST IN THE DRYING TREND AND
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE SOUTHEAST
PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA IS INDICATED IN THE FORECAST THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT. BUT BY 12Z SATURDAY ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
INDICATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS WITH NO SHOWERS FOR
THE PENINSULA.
THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR THE ATLANTIC COAST BEACHES HAS BEEN
EXTENDED THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY WITH HAZARDOUS SEAS ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z
SATURDAY AND COULD LINGER A BIT LONGER...MAY HAVE TO ADJUST THE
RIP CURRENT RISK WITH UPDATED FORECAST AND CONDITIONS ON
SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE AND STABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
PREVAIL SATURDAY THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH MAINLY
CLIMATOLOGICAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS IS THROUGH
12Z SATURDAY. FOR THE GULF WATERS...THE SCA IS MAINLY FOR WINDS
ABOVE 20 KNOTS...IN THE 20 TO 22 KNOT RANGE...AND MAINLY IN THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE OFF SHORE WATERS AND THE NEAR SHORE WATERS
WEST OF MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE
WIND FORECAST...BUT REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 20 KNOTS ARE OBSERVED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA
KEYS AND WEST OF KEY WEST.
FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS...REGIONAL WINDS IN EXCESS OF 20 KNOTS ARE NOTED
THE ATLANTIC WATERS...INCLUDING BISCAYNE BAY. IN ADDITION SEAS
ABOVE ADVISORY LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO STAY ABOVE ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z SATURDAY AND FORECAST TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE
THEREAFTER.
AS CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 81 68 81 70 / 10 10 0 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 81 70 82 73 / 10 10 10 10
MIAMI 82 68 83 71 / 10 0 10 10
NAPLES 81 64 83 66 / 10 0 0 10
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR FLZ173.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR FLZ168-172-
173.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ630-650-
651-670-671.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ630.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....13/SI
AVIATION...84/AK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1043 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014
.DISCUSSION...
314 AM CDT
SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING...THE INITIAL
CONCERNS WILL BE CLOUD COVER...AND IMPACTS ON VISIBILITY. A WEAK
MID LEVEL IMPULSE THAT TRACKED ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY EVENING
BROUGHT SOME SCT SPRINKLES. AS THE MID AND HIGH CLOUD PUSHES AWAY
FROM THE AREA...FOG AND LOW STRATUS ARE BLOOMING. NWRN IL AND ERN
IA HAVE ALREADY SEEN DENSE FOG AND LOW STRATUS FORM...AND IN THE
MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 50S...EXPECT THAT
THE AREA OF FOG/STRATUS SHOULD INCREASE...THOUGH THE LOWEST
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-39 CORRIDOR. EAST OF
I-39...ANY DENSE FOG SHOULD BE LIMITED TO SHELTERED...LOW-LYING
AREAS.
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE
AREA...WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS WHILE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ALSO BUILDS OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THE UPPER RIDGING WILL SET UP A SUBSIDENCE PATTERN
ACROSS THE AREA...LEADING TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. LOW PRESSURE
MOVING THROUGH SERN CANADA...COMBINED WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE PLAINS WILL SET UP A GENERALLY NWLY GRADIENT ACROSS NRN IL/IN.
DAYTIME WARMING SHOULD ALLOW ANY RESIDUAL FOG/STRATUS TO DISSIPATE
BY LATE MORNING...WHILE THE AMPLE SUNSHINE AND LARGER SCALE
SUBSIDENCE SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY RISE INTO THE LOWER
70S ACROSS THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WHILE LOCATION CLOSER TO
THE WI BORDER WILL BE A BIT COOLER...BUT STILL SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER
THAN NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. STEADY NWLY WINDS AT THE
SFC AND ALOFT SHOULD PREVENT ANY KIND OF LAKE BREEZE FROM FORMING
AND THE WARMER AIR SHOULD COVER THE AREA UP TO THE LAKEFRONT. WHILE
DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE 50S FOR THE MORNING HOURS...DEEP MIXING
SHOULD DRAW MUCH DRIER AIR TO THE SFC...WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO
THE UPPER 30S FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SO...OVERALL...SATURDAY IS
SHAPING UP TO A VERY PLEASANT DAY...WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE MIDWEST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WHILE THE
UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY PROGRESSES AS WELL. WITH A DRIER AIRMASS IN
PLACE TONIGHT...THE CHANCES FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG AND STRATUS IS
UNLIKELY...THROUGH THE CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND LOWER DEWPOINTS
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RADIATE DOWN INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S. THE CHICAGO AREA URBAN HEAT ISLAND SHOULD REMAIN A
LITTLE WARMER...WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 40S.
KREIN
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN RELATIVELY CONSISTENT IN THE MEDIUM TERM FEATURING
MID-LVL RIDGING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION WITH A SFC
RIDGE PROVIDING ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND DRY CONDS FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER THIS RIDGE WILL ONLY BE TEMPORARY AS THE
MID-LVL HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL AND A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW BEGINS TO SETUP
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. FORTUNATELY IT REMAINS LIKELY THAT MON WILL
REMAIN DRY...WITH VERY MILD TEMPS EXPECTED. THE SFC RIDGE WILL BE
SHIFTING EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT SHOULD CONTINUE TO KEEP
CLOUDS TO A MINIMUM AND PRECIP WEST OF THE AREA. THE COMBINATION OF
THIS AND AN ANOMALOUS THERMAL RIDGE WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO SOAR INTO
THE MID/UPR 70S...WITH A FEW 80 DEGREE READINGS IN THE SOUTHERN CWFA
MON AFTN.
BROAD SFC TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SLOWLY
CONSOLIDATE AS THIS FEATURE NEARS THE GREAT LAKES MON EVE. THERE IS
A SMALL CHANCE THAT A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD SKIRT THE
NORTHERN CWFA MON AFTN...BUT EXPECT THE BULK OF THE PRECIP TO OCCUR
POST SUNSET. MID-LVL TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TUE MORNING...AS THE SFC LOW DEEPENS ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN. HAVE
HELD ONTO THE MENTION OF THUNDER INTO TUE MORNING...AS IT APPEARS
SOME INSTABILITY/FORCING WILL CONTINUE. MON NGT TEMPS WILL LIKELY
NOT FALL MUCH...PRODUCING A MILD OVERNIGHT. THEN FOR TUE WITH
CONTINUED CLOUD COVER/PRECIP...EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN IN THE UPR
50S/LOW 60S. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE FROPA TUE...TEMPS COULD
BEGIN TO FALL TUE AFTN INTO THE LOW 50S.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK IT APPEARS THE PATTERN WILL BE
TRANSITIONING TOWARDS A COOLER AND SOMEWHAT ACTIVE SETUP. ENSEMBLES
CONTINUE TO PROG MID-LVL RIDGING DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS...ALLOWING BROAD TROUGHING DOWNSTREAM FOR THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WED/THUR. THEN FRI THE 500MB RIDGE MAY BEGIN TO FURTHER
AMPLIFY AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO APPROACH THE PAC-NW AND
RIDGING REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC. TROUGHING WILL LINGER
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRI. TEMPS WILL TREND BACK TOWARDS
SEASONAL...WITH PERHAPS FRI BEING SUB-SEASONAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPR
40S/LOW 50S. PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED
TIMEFRAME.
BEACHLER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...
* GUSTY NW WINDS WITH GUSTS 20-24 KT.
JEE
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
A WEAK SFC TROUGH AND MID LEVEL IMPULSE HAVE PASSED EAST OF THE
REGION...CLEARING OUT THE MID AND HIGH CLOUD. RESIDUAL MOISTURE
HAS ALLOWED FOG AND LOW STRATUS TO DEVELOP...DROPPING CIGS/VIS
INTO IFR RANGES...WITH THE LOWEST CONDITIONS OVER THE RFD AREA
WHICH CLEARED FIRST. THE STRATUS AND FOG WILL BURN OFF BY ARND 14Z
AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION. THE MAIN ISSUE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY WILL BE WINDS. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE
WEAK SFC TROUGH...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE NRN PLAINS WILL
SET UP A STRENGTHENING WNWLY-NWLY GRADIENT OVER THE AREA. WITH
AMPLE MIXING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WINDS SHOULD BECOME MORE
GUSTY...WITH GUSTS TO OR SLIGHTLY IN EXCESS OF 20KT THROUGH SUNSET.
KREIN
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL FORECAST ELEMENTS.
JEE
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
MONDAY...VFR/WX NIL BY DAY...SHRA/TSRA LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT. BREEZY
SOUTH WINDS.
TUESDAY...CHC SHRA/TSRA EARLY. MVFR POSSIBLE EARLY. WEST WINDS.
WEDNESDAY...VFR/WX NIL. WEST WINDS DAYTIME...BECMG SLY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
THURSDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA DAYTIME. VFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS
VEERING TO NLY BY EARLY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
FRIDAY...VFR/WX NIL. NORTH WINDS.
KREIN
&&
.MARINE...
229 AM CDT
LOW PRESSURE OVER JAMES BAY ALONG WITH A SFC RIDGE CENTERED OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS HAS CREATED A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE TWO SYSTEMS...WHICH IS POSITIONED OVER THE LAKE. THIS HAS
RESULTED IN BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER THE LAKE WITH SPEEDS
GENERALLY BETWEEN 20-25KT. ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE
THE GUSTS MAY NEAR 30 KT THIS MORNING. AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST ACROSS THE LAKE...WIND WILL TURN
WEST/NORTHWEST AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUN. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE LAKE SUN...THEN CONTINUE TO
SLIDE EAST BY LATE SUN NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW ONLY A TEMPORARY
LULL IN THE WINDS...BEFORE WINDS TURN SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AND BEGIN TO
INCREASE. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE IS POISED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST
TOWARDS LAKE MICHIGAN MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUE. THIS LOW WILL THEN
DEEPEN TUE AFTERNOON AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN.
THIS COULD PRODUCE A PERIOD OF WEST GALES TUE NGT/EARLY WED...THEN
ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE WESTERN LAKES
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
BEACHLER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745...4 PM SATURDAY TO
10 AM SUNDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 5 PM SATURDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
915 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 915 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014
Dense fog has once again developed across west-central Illinois
this morning, with 14z/9am obs showing visibilities of 1/4 mile or
less along/northwest of a Jacksonville to Bloomington line. Weak
cold front is approaching the I-55 corridor: however, the drier
airmass lags well behind the boundary across central/northern
Iowa. Dry advection will eventually help erode the northern edge
of the fog area, while the rising sun will help get rid of the fog
as well. With dry air only slowly trickling in, think fog will
stick around until mid to late morning, much like what happened
yesterday morning. As a result, have extended the Dense Fog
Advisory until midday. Have also expanded it southeastward to
include Bloomington-Normal and Jacksonville. Once drier air
arrives and sun angle gets higher, fog/low clouds will rapidly
dissipate between 16z and 17z, followed by sunny skies for the
balance of the day. Further east, mostly sunny conditions will
prevail for the entire day across east-central and southeast
Illinois. High temperatures will climb well into the 70s across
the board. Forecast update has already been issued.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014
Main concern in the short term will be the dense fog again early
this morning, mainly in the northwestern parts of the CWA. Unlike
last night, the dense fog has not developed yet in the CWA and is
still located along and west of the Mississippi River. However, HRRR
model still forecast dense fog to move into the area. So will
continue the dense fog advisory as is, and will not extend in time or
area. Fog will be in areas east of the Illinois river, but not
dense. After the fog dissipates this morning, mostly clear skies
will be the rule for the area. Should be lots of sunshine to allow
temps to rise into the lower to middle 70s by this afternoon, which
is well above normal for the later part of October. Northwest winds
will only bring in a drier airmass for the day and beyond.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014
1020 mb high pressure over over the northern High Plains, near the
eastern MT and western Dakotas border, to settle into IL by
sunrise Sunday and weaken a bit to 1018 mb, then drift into
eastern KY by sunset Sunday. This will continue fair weather
through Sunday night. 850 mb temps cool to 12-14C tonight into
Sunday morning before rising back up to 14-16C by sunset Sunday.
Lows mostly in the middle 40s tonight (fog limited overnight
tonight over central IL with drier air advecting in). Highs
Sunday mostly 70-75F, except upper 60s to near 70F from I-74
northeast.
Strong low pressure of 1000 mb to eject ne from western KS Sunday
evening into Lake MI Monday night and bring a cold front east across
IL overnight Monday night and across the Wabash river valley in
eastern IL Tue morning. Breezy ssw winds Monday ahead of this storm
system to bring in warm air with highs approaching 80F. Have a
slight chance of showers and thunderstorms late Monday afternoon
far NW CWA by Galesburg. Best chances of showers and isolated
thunderstorms spread east across IL during Monday night (mainly
after midnight Monday night in eastern IL) and Tue morning, then
diminish Tue afternoon from the west. Highs Tue range from lower 60s
from I-55 nw to upper 60s to around 70F from I-70 se. Temperatures
steady or slowly falling Tue afternoon behind the cold front. Slight
chance of showers early Tue evening near the Wabash river, otherwise
dry weather returns Tue night through Wed night as another high
pressure system settles over IL by Wed afternoon. Near normal highs
Wed/Thu in the upper 50s/lower 60s.
A weak northern stream short wave to dive se into upper level trof
over the eastern states and bring another cold front into IL by Thu
afternoon/evening. Have just slight chance of showers Thu due to
limited moisture. ECMWF model shows strong cutoff upper level low
near IL on Halloween along with showers, but other models like GFS
are drier. Models due agree that even colder air arrives on
Halloween with highs in the lower 50s central IL and mid 50s se of
I-70, while low temperatures near freezing next Friday night over
central IL and mid 30s in southeast IL.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014
Difficult part of the forecast will be dense fog and lower IFR
clouds this morning and what time it will dissipate. HRRR keeps
the lower vis along the IL river and to the northwest. So, PIA
will be the only site effected by dense fog. However, other sites
will also have some light fog during the first 2-3hrs of the
morning. IFR and MVFR clouds are also advecting into the area from
the northwest and will effect the other sites early this morning,
before the sunshine burns them off. HRRR is keeps lower clouds in
the area til later this morning. Not sure if I agree with this
forecast, so have skies scattering out and then clearing at all
sites between 15 and 17z. Then clear skies will prevail for
remainder of TAF period, as high pressure builds into the area
with lower dewpoints and northwest winds at 5-10kts.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY until Noon CDT today FOR ILZ027>031-036>038-
040-041-047>050.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Barnes
SHORT TERM...Auten
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Auten
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
651 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014
.DISCUSSION...
314 AM CDT
SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING...THE INITIAL
CONCERNS WILL BE CLOUD COVER...AND IMPACTS ON VISIBILITY. A WEAK
MID LEVEL IMPULSE THAT TRACKED ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY EVENING
BROUGHT SOME SCT SPRINKLES. AS THE MID AND HIGH CLOUD PUSHES AWAY
FROM THE AREA...FOG AND LOW STRATUS ARE BLOOMING. NWRN IL AND ERN
IA HAVE ALREADY SEEN DENSE FOG AND LOW STRATUS FORM...AND IN THE
MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 50S...EXPECT THAT
THE AREA OF FOG/STRATUS SHOULD INCREASE...THOUGH THE LOWEST
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-39 CORRIDOR. EAST OF
I-39...ANY DENSE FOG SHOULD BE LIMITED TO SHELTERED...LOW-LYING
AREAS.
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE
AREA...WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS WHILE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ALSO BUILDS OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THE UPPER RIDGING WILL SET UP A SUBSIDENCE PATTERN
ACROSS THE AREA...LEADING TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. LOW PRESSURE
MOVING THROUGH SERN CANADA...COMBINED WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE PLAINS WILL SET UP A GENERALLY NWLY GRADIENT ACROSS NRN IL/IN.
DAYTIME WARMING SHOULD ALLOW ANY RESIDUAL FOG/STRATUS TO DISSIPATE
BY LATE MORNING...WHILE THE AMPLE SUNSHINE AND LARGER SCALE
SUBSIDENCE SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY RISE INTO THE LOWER
70S ACROSS THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WHILE LOCATION CLOSER TO
THE WI BORDER WILL BE A BIT COOLER...BUT STILL SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER
THAN NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. STEADY NWLY WINDS AT THE
SFC AND ALOFT SHOULD PREVENT ANY KIND OF LAKE BREEZE FROM FORMING
AND THE WARMER AIR SHOULD COVER THE AREA UP TO THE LAKEFRONT. WHILE
DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE 50S FOR THE MORNING HOURS...DEEP MIXING
SHOULD DRAW MUCH DRIER AIR TO THE SFC...WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO
THE UPPER 30S FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SO...OVERALL...SATURDAY IS
SHAPING UP TO A VERY PLEASANT DAY...WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE MIDWEST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WHILE THE
UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY PROGRESSES AS WELL. WITH A DRIER AIRMASS IN
PLACE TONIGHT...THE CHANCES FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG AND STRATUS IS
UNLIKELY...THROUGH THE CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND LOWER DEWPOINTS
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RADIATE DOWN INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S. THE CHICAGO AREA URBAN HEAT ISLAND SHOULD REMAIN A
LITTLE WARMER...WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 40S.
KREIN
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN RELATIVELY CONSISTENT IN THE MEDIUM TERM FEATURING
MID-LVL RIDGING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION WITH A SFC
RIDGE PROVIDING ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND DRY CONDS FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER THIS RIDGE WILL ONLY BE TEMPORARY AS THE
MID-LVL HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL AND A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW BEGINS TO SETUP
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. FORTUNATELY IT REMAINS LIKELY THAT MON WILL
REMAIN DRY...WITH VERY MILD TEMPS EXPECTED. THE SFC RIDGE WILL BE
SHIFTING EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT SHOULD CONTINUE TO KEEP
CLOUDS TO A MINIMUM AND PRECIP WEST OF THE AREA. THE COMBINATION OF
THIS AND AN ANOMALOUS THERMAL RIDGE WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO SOAR INTO
THE MID/UPR 70S...WITH A FEW 80 DEGREE READINGS IN THE SOUTHERN CWFA
MON AFTN.
BROAD SFC TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SLOWLY
CONSOLIDATE AS THIS FEATURE NEARS THE GREAT LAKES MON EVE. THERE IS
A SMALL CHANCE THAT A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD SKIRT THE
NORTHERN CWFA MON AFTN...BUT EXPECT THE BULK OF THE PRECIP TO OCCUR
POST SUNSET. MID-LVL TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TUE MORNING...AS THE SFC LOW DEEPENS ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN. HAVE
HELD ONTO THE MENTION OF THUNDER INTO TUE MORNING...AS IT APPEARS
SOME INSTABILITY/FORCING WILL CONTINUE. MON NGT TEMPS WILL LIKELY
NOT FALL MUCH...PRODUCING A MILD OVERNIGHT. THEN FOR TUE WITH
CONTINUED CLOUD COVER/PRECIP...EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN IN THE UPR
50S/LOW 60S. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE FROPA TUE...TEMPS COULD
BEGIN TO FALL TUE AFTN INTO THE LOW 50S.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK IT APPEARS THE PATTERN WILL BE
TRANSITIONING TOWARDS A COOLER AND SOMEWHAT ACTIVE SETUP. ENSEMBLES
CONTINUE TO PROG MID-LVL RIDGING DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS...ALLOWING BROAD TROUGHING DOWNSTREAM FOR THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WED/THUR. THEN FRI THE 500MB RIDGE MAY BEGIN TO FURTHER
AMPLIFY AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO APPROACH THE PAC-NW AND
RIDGING REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC. TROUGHING WILL LINGER
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRI. TEMPS WILL TREND BACK TOWARDS
SEASONAL...WITH PERHAPS FRI BEING SUB-SEASONAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPR
40S/LOW 50S. PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED
TIMEFRAME.
BEACHLER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 12Z...
* IFR CIGS/MVFR VIS THIS MORNING.
* BREEZY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS...WITH GUSTS TO ARND 20KT.
KREIN
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
A WEAK SFC TROUGH AND MID LEVEL IMPULSE HAVE PASSED EAST OF THE
REGION...CLEARING OUT THE MID AND HIGH CLOUD. RESIDUAL MOISTURE
HAS ALLOWED FOG AND LOW STRATUS TO DEVELOP...DROPPING CIGS/VIS
INTO IFR RANGES...WITH THE LOWEST CONDITIONS OVER THE RFD AREA
WHICH CLEARED FIRST. THE STRATUS AND FOG WILL BURN OFF BY ARND 14Z
AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION. THE MAIN ISSUE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY WILL BE WINDS. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE
WEAK SFC TROUGH...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE NRN PLAINS WILL
SET UP A STRENGTHENING WNWLY-NWLY GRADIENT OVER THE AREA. WITH
AMPLE MIXING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WINDS SHOULD BECOME MORE
GUSTY...WITH GUSTS TO OR SLIGHTLY IN EXCESS OF 20KT THROUGH SUNSET.
KREIN
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 12Z...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF CIGS/VIS IMPROVING TO VFR.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE WIND TRENDS WITH WNWLY-NWLY WINDS GUSTING TO
ARND 20KT.
KREIN
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
MONDAY...VFR/WX NIL BY DAY...SHRA/TSRA LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT. BREEZY
SOUTH WINDS.
TUESDAY...CHC SHRA/TSRA EARLY. MVFR POSSIBLE EARLY. WEST WINDS.
WEDNESDAY...VFR/WX NIL. WEST WINDS DAYTIME...BECMG SLY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
THURSDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA DAYTIME. VFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS
VEERING TO NLY BY EARLY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
FRIDAY...VFR/WX NIL. NORTH WINDS.
KREIN
&&
.MARINE...
229 AM CDT
LOW PRESSURE OVER JAMES BAY ALONG WITH A SFC RIDGE CENTERED OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS HAS CREATED A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE TWO SYSTEMS...WHICH IS POSITIONED OVER THE LAKE. THIS HAS
RESULTED IN BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER THE LAKE WITH SPEEDS
GENERALLY BETWEEN 20-25KT. ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE
THE GUSTS MAY NEAR 30 KT THIS MORNING. AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST ACROSS THE LAKE...WIND WILL TURN
WEST/NORTHWEST AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUN. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE LAKE SUN...THEN CONTINUE TO
SLIDE EAST BY LATE SUN NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW ONLY A TEMPORARY
LULL IN THE WINDS...BEFORE WINDS TURN SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AND BEGIN TO
INCREASE. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE IS POISED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST
TOWARDS LAKE MICHIGAN MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUE. THIS LOW WILL THEN
DEEPEN TUE AFTERNOON AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN.
THIS COULD PRODUCE A PERIOD OF WEST GALES TUE NGT/EARLY WED...THEN
ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE WESTERN LAKES
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
BEACHLER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
638 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2014
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014
Main concern in the short term will be the dense fog again early
this morning, mainly in the northwestern parts of the CWA. Unlike
last night, the dense fog has not developed yet in the CWA and is
still located along and west of the Mississippi River. However, HRRR
model still forecast dense fog to move into the area. So will
continue the dense fog advisory as is, and will not extend in time or
area. Fog will be in areas east of the Illinois river, but not
dense. After the fog dissipates this morning, mostly clear skies
will be the rule for the area. Should be lots of sunshine to allow
temps to rise into the lower to middle 70s by this afternoon, which
is well above normal for the later part of October. Northwest winds
will only bring in a drier airmass for the day and beyond.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014
1020 mb high pressure over over the northern High Plains, near the
eastern MT and western Dakotas border, to settle into IL by
sunrise Sunday and weaken a bit to 1018 mb, then drift into
eastern KY by sunset Sunday. This will continue fair weather
through Sunday night. 850 mb temps cool to 12-14C tonight into
Sunday morning before rising back up to 14-16C by sunset Sunday.
Lows mostly in the middle 40s tonight (fog limited overnight
tonight over central IL with drier air advecting in). Highs
Sunday mostly 70-75F, except upper 60s to near 70F from I-74
northeast.
Strong low pressure of 1000 mb to eject ne from western KS Sunday
evening into Lake MI Monday night and bring a cold front east across
IL overnight Monday night and across the Wabash river valley in
eastern IL Tue morning. Breezy ssw winds Monday ahead of this storm
system to bring in warm air with highs approaching 80F. Have a
slight chance of showers and thunderstorms late Monday afternoon
far NW CWA by Galesburg. Best chances of showers and isolated
thunderstorms spread east across IL during Monday night (mainly
after midnight Monday night in eastern IL) and Tue morning, then
diminish Tue afternoon from the west. Highs Tue range from lower 60s
from I-55 nw to upper 60s to around 70F from I-70 se. Temperatures
steady or slowly falling Tue afternoon behind the cold front. Slight
chance of showers early Tue evening near the Wabash river, otherwise
dry weather returns Tue night through Wed night as another high
pressure system settles over IL by Wed afternoon. Near normal highs
Wed/Thu in the upper 50s/lower 60s.
A weak northern stream short wave to dive se into upper level trof
over the eastern states and bring another cold front into IL by Thu
afternoon/evening. Have just slight chance of showers Thu due to
limited moisture. ECMWF model shows strong cutoff upper level low
near IL on Halloween along with showers, but other models like GFS
are drier. Models due agree that even colder air arrives on
Halloween with highs in the lower 50s central IL and mid 50s se of
I-70, while low temperatures near freezing next Friday night over
central IL and mid 30s in southeast IL.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014
Difficult part of the forecast will be dense fog and lower IFR
clouds this morning and what time it will dissipate. HRRR keeps
the lower vis along the IL river and to the northwest. So, PIA
will be the only site effected by dense fog. However, other sites
will also have some light fog during the first 2-3hrs of the
morning. IFR and MVFR clouds are also advecting into the area from
the northwest and will effect the other sites early this morning,
before the sunshine burns them off. HRRR is keeps lower clouds in
the area til later this morning. Not sure if I agree with this
forecast, so have skies scattering out and then clearing at all
sites between 15 and 17z. Then clear skies will prevail for
remainder of TAF period, as high pressure builds into the area
with lower dewpoints and northwest winds at 5-10kts.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 9 AM CDT this morning FOR ILZ027>029-
036-040.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Auten
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Auten
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1258 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014
.DISCUSSION...
947 PM CDT
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH THIS EVENING. MOST AREAS WILL
REMAIN DRY...AND EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE INTO NW INDIANA AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AND EAST OF THE AREA SHORTLY THEREAFTER.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT SOME FOG TO REFORM AGAIN TONIGHT...WITH WESTERN
AREAS FAVORED DUE TO A THINNING AND LOWERING OF CLOUDS.
KMD
//PREV DISCUSSION...
304 PM CDT
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...
BROAD SURFACE HIGH STRETCHES FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON WHILE
LOW PRESSURE LIES OVER ONTARIO WITH A COLD FRONT STRETCHING INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. A NARROW RIBBON OF MOISTURE IS ANALYZED OUT AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT WITH 60 DEGREE DEWPOINTS STRETCHING NORTH INTO
NORTHERN IOWA THIS AFTERNOON...AND JUST OFF THE DECK A CORRIDOR OF
LOW/MID LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION IS DRIVING AT LEAST A FEW VERY WEAK
RADAR RETURNS OVER FAR SE MN AND NE IA. RAP/HRRR GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS
AREA PERSISTING ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS THIS EVENING WITH THE
CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS. GIVEN THE VERY SPARSE COVERAGE SO FAR
UPSTREAM AND THE DRY SOUNDINGS/LIMITED DURATION OF FORCING...NOT
BITING OFF ON PRECIP MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...BUT WILL
MAINTAIN SOME LOW END SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SINCE THERE ARE SOME
INGREDIENTS IN PLACE.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
WEAK FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY ON SATURDAY WITH DRY AIR
FILTERING BACK INTO THE REGION AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
AREA AND SUBSIDENCE SETS IN OVERHEAD. EXPECT DEW POINTS TO MIX OUT
NICELY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS
WHERE DEW POINTS MAY DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S. THE DRY
CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A NICE RESPONSE FROM DIABATIC HEATING
WHICH WILL RESULT IN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER TOMORROW.
MEANWHILE...SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
SATURDAY DIRECTLY OVERHEAD EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WHICH WILL ALLOW
FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING SUNDAY MORNING WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO
THE 30S IN OUTLYING AREAS AND SOME OF THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS.
ELSEWHERE EXPECT LOW 40S WITH DOWNTOWN CHICAGO STAYING PROPPED UP IN
THE MID 40S. TEMPERATURES MAY BE A BIT TRICKY SUNDAY WITH WARM
ADVECTION ALOFT INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
SURFACE HIGH. A COOL STARTING POINT AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE DAY WILL KEEP HIGHS ONLY INTO THE 60S SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUCKLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DIGS FROM THE PAC NW INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. BROAD SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL SHIFT EAST TOWARDS THE MIDWEST
EARLY MONDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASING OUT AHEAD AND A CORRIDOR
OF MODERATE TO STRONG MID LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION LIFTING ACROSS THE
LOCAL FORECAST AREA ON THE NOSE OF A 40KT OR SO LOW LEVEL JET.
COLUMN IS FAIRLY DRY OUT AHEAD OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE BUT A NARROW
LAYER OF SATURATION COULD TAP INTO SOME MODEST INSTABILITY ROOTED
BETWEEN H7-H9. THIS DOES POINT TO SOME CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
THOUGH CHANCES ARE BETTER TO OUR NORTH WHERE THE MUCAPE ALIGNS
BETTER WITH THE FORCING FROM THE LOW LEVEL JET. EXPECT LOWERING
CLOUDS IN THE PREDAWN HOURS AS THE SURFACE WARM FRONT APPROACHES.
THE MID LEVELS DRY OUT AGAIN AND THE MOISTURE IS FAIRLY SHALLOW SO
ANY ADDITIONAL PRECIP EARLY ON MONDAY MAY JUST BE DRIZZLE. SURFACE
WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA MID MORNING MONDAY AND EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS ONCE IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH LOW CLOUD COVER EVENTUALLY
SCATTERING. H85 TEMPS WARM TO 15-16C WITH 17C BEING THE 99TH
PERCENTILE OF UPPER AIR CLIMO FOR THE END OF OCTOBER. SURFACE HIGHS
WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL...POSSIBLY PUSHING 20F ABOVE
NORMAL...THOUGH THE RECORD HIGH SHOULD BE SAFE. LEANED HEAVILY ON
EC/ECBC FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS MONDAY FORECASTING MID 70S...WITH UPPER
70S SOUTH OF I-80. THE WARMER CONDITIONS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
STRONGER WINDS HOWEVER WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 20 TO 25 MPH AND
POSSIBLY 30 MPH AT TIMES.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
MODELS ARE INDICATING A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO
DEVELOP OVER THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A COLD FRONT SWEEPING
ACROSS THE ARE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY BRINGING CHANCES FOR
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE LOW REALLY BEGINS TO DEEPEN IN EARNEST
AS IT LIFTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO CANADA TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH DRIVING POLAR AIR SOUTH INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES
AND A COLD POLAR HIGH GRAZING THE LOCAL AREA LATE NEXT WEEK. DETAILS
STILL MURKY THIS FAR OUT BUT DOES APPEAR WE COULD BE IN FOR A BIG
COOL DOWN LATE NEXT WEEK IN TIME FOR HALLOWEEN IF CURRENT GFS/ECMWF
RUNS PAN OUT.
DEUBELBEISS
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* MVFR CIGS LIKELY OVERNIGHT...IFR CIGS A POSSIBILITY.
* MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.
* IMPROVING CIG/VIS SATURDAY MORNING.
* BREEZY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS...WITH GUSTS TO ARND 20KT.
KREIN
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
A WEAK SFC TROUGH AND MID LEVEL IMPULSE WILL CROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES JET CIRRUS AND SOME
MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVER THE AREA...BUT THE HIGHER LEVEL CLOUD IS
PUSHING EAST OF THE REGION...AND LOCATIONS THAT HAVE LOST THE
HIGHER LEVEL CLOUD COVER ARE ALREADY SEEING LOWERING STRATUS AND
FOG. ANTICIPATE THAT CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER WITH THE WRN
TERMINALS...RFD/DPA LOWERING FIRST AND THEN ORD/MDW/GYY A LITTLE
LATER. STILL HAVE SOME CONCERNS FOR IFR CIGS DEVELOPING...WITH
HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN IFR CONDITIONS AT RFD/DPA...BUT HAVE ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN IFR CIGS AT ORD/MDW/GYY TO AT LEAST INCLUDE IN A
TEMPO GROUP. THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR LIFR CIGS/VIS...ESPECIALLY
AT RFD...WHICH WILL HAVE THE LONGEST PERIOD OF TIME WITHOUT THE
HIGHER LEVEL CLOUD. ALSO...AS THE WEAK SFC TROUGH AXIS CROSSES THE
AREA...WINDS DECREASING TO BLW 5KT COULD ALSO HELP WITH DENSER FOG
DEVELOPMENT AWAY FROM THE CHICAGO AREA URBAN HEAT ISLAND.
WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE EXPECTED...CONDITIONS SHOULD QUICKLY IMPROVE
AFTER SUNRISE AND THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY SHOULD SEE VFR
CONDITIONS. THE MAIN ISSUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WILL BE
WINDS. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE WEAK SFC TROUGH...HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE NRN PLAINS WILL SET UP A STRENGTHENING
WNWLY-NWLY GRADIENT OVER THE AREA. WITH AMPLE MIXING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WINDS SHOULD BECOME MORE GUSTY...WITH GUSTS TO ARND
20KT THROUGH SUNSET.
KREIN
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS LOWERING TO MVFR OVERNIGHT. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE IN IFR CIGS DEVELOPING.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN MVFR VIS OVERNIGHT.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AND WNWLY-NWLY WINDS
SATURDAY...WITH GUSTS TO ARND 20KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
KREIN
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
SUNDAY...VFR. SLGT CHC SHRA/TSRA SUNDAY NIGHT. SE WINDS.
MONDAY...VFR BY DAY...SHRA/TSRA LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT. BREEZY
SOUTH WINDS.
TUESDAY...CHC SHRA/TSRA. MVFR POSSIBLE. SOUTHWEST-WEST WINDS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS.
RATZER
&&
.MARINE...
228 PM CDT
HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOWLY PUSHING EAST WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER
THE LAKE. A WEAK LAKE BREEZE HAS TURNED WINDS ONSHORE OVER LAKE
COUNTY IL. SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO 20-25 KT THIS EVENING WITH
OCNL 30 KT GUSTS PSBL OVER THE NORTH HALF OF THE LAKE OVERNIGHT.
WINDS TURN W 20-25 KT BEHIND THE FRONT AND SLOWLY BECOME NW SATURDAY
NIGHT. POINTS NORTH OF WILMETTE HARBOR MAY SEE OCNL GUSTS TO 25 KT
TOMORROW...BUT THINKING SUSTAINED SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE
MET. WINDS DIMINISH AS A HIGH MOVES OVER THE LAKE SUNDAY. WINDS
BECOME SOUTH BEHIND THE LOW AND THEN TURN SE AND INCREASE TO 20-25
KT AS THE NEXT LOW APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF
VARIABILITY IN THE STRENGTH AND PATH OF THE NEXT LOW SO CONFIDENCE
IS LOW IN THE EXACT WIND SPEEDS. ONE MODEL DOES FEATURE WESTERLY
GALES ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT DO NOT HAVE
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO GO THAT HIGH IN THE FORECAST JUST YET. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN MID NEXT WEEK AND WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISH WEDNESDAY.
STILL THINKING THERE IS A MARGINAL CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
TO BE MET MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON
HEADLINES FOR NOW.
JEE
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1150 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014
Dense fog advisory issued for areas west of the Illinois River. As
a shortwave trough moves off to the southeast late tonight,
clearing skies should allow good radiational cooling to resume in
a slightly moister air mass, bringing a good scenario for fog
formation. Observations of very low visibilities in fog over
eastern Iowa indicate west central Illinois should develop dense
fog overnight as the clearing sets in. Later updates may be
needed to adjust for fog coverage.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014
19z/2pm satellite imagery shows low clouds that persisted for much
of the day across west-central Illinois have finally dissipated,
with just one small patch remaining from south of Lincoln to near
Taylorville. Based on satellite trends, this patch will dissipate
over the next hour or so as well, leading to mostly clear skies late
this afternoon into the early evening. Main short-term forecast
concern will be the potential re-development of low clouds/fog
tonight as a weak trough of low pressure moves through the area.
While the overall depth of the atmosphere will be very dry, a
shallow surface-based moist layer will remain in place. With no
deep-layer moisture to work with, precip is not expected to develop
along the trough despite the NAM hinting at some overnight. As winds
become light/variable and cloud cover associated with the passing
trough begins to clear from northwest to southeast after midnight,
fog will begin to develop. HRRR is showing widespread fog once
again forming across central/eastern Iowa, then spreading into the
Illinois River Valley toward dawn. As a result, will carry areas of
fog along/west of the Illinois River, with patchy fog as far east as
Champaign/Danville. Due to cloud cover and light southerly winds,
low temperatures will be quite a bit warmer than in recent nights,
with readings remaining in the lower to middle 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Friday)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014
Saturday will start off with some morning fog, mainly N of I-70. The
fog should burn off around mid-morning, as a cold front pushes east
across IL. Some cooler air associated with the front will be mainly
confined to northern IL, with our 850mb temps still remaining the
12-14C range in the post-frontal airmass. Dry-adiabatic warming of
that layer to the surface, coupled with some sunshine should help
push high temps into the low 70s N of I-74 with upper 70s S of
I-70. NW winds will still develop behind the front, so a brief
chill may be added to the air at times.
Mid level warming will develop Saturday night into Sunday, as 850mb
temps climb toward +16C. That warm layer will linger into Monday.
Southerly winds will develop Sunday afternoon once the surface ridge
axis moves east of IL, so highs should once again climb into the 70s
across the board. On Monday, a few 80 degree readings will possible
on Monday across southwest and southeast portions of the forecast
area, which would be nearly 20 degrees above normal for late
October. Record highs for Monday are in the mid 80s and currently
appear safe.
A long wave trough is forecast to move across the northern
Plains on Monday night, with cold front progressing across IL
Tuesday morning and early afternoon. The ECMWF indicates a more
dynamic system developing in the western Great Lakes on Tuesday,
while the GFS remains a bit more progressive and less strong with
the frontal passage in our area of IL. We did maintain widespread
chance PoPs Monday night, as moisture pooling and lift still appear
to be sufficient a band of rain to affect central IL. We continued
the likely PoPs in SE Illinois for Tuesday, but chances should
diminish Tue afternoon as the main forcing for precip departs into
Indiana, and dry air quickly filters into the area aloft.
A significant cool down is agreed upon by the GFS and ECMWF for
Tuesday and Tuesday night, as 850mb temps plummet to 0 to -3C by
midday Wednesday. That will bring temps back below normal for highs
Wed, with upper 50s north of I-74, with low 60s south near
Jacksonville to Lawrenceville.
Another cold front is indicated for Thursday, with better agreement
on timing of the front between the GFS and ECMWF. Confidence is
increasing that a band of light rain showers may accompany that
front. So low chances for rain was added to the Thurs forecast,
mainly from the Illinois river to I-55.
The GFS is a about 4-5 degrees colder than the ECMWF behind the
front, with 850mb readings in the -2 to -4C range Friday afternoon.
We will continue with the cooling trend for late week. Some freezing
temps could develop for Friday night N of I-74 if the GFS scenario
pans out.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014
Mainly VFR conditions continue across central/SE Illinois late
this evening as a shortwave trough and weak cold front moves
across the region, bringing cigs just above 3 kft AGL. This
feature will move off to the east overnight, then clearing of the
cloud cover will allow fog to develop overnight. Given a similar
air mass to last night and winds expected to become light/variable
in the vicinity of the trough, vsbys between 1 and 3 miles
included for most central Illinois TAF locations, with LIFR
category included for KPIA. Gradual clearing with winds NW 8-10
kts expected after 14Z.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY from 3 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday FOR ILZ027>029-
036-040.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Onton
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Shimon
AVIATION...Onton
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
642 PM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014
WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM SERN NEBRASKA INTO SRN IL WILL LIFT
NORTH TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTH CENTRAL KS MOVES INTO IA
BY 12Z. THETA-E ADVECTION HAS PUSHED TO HE FAR NORTHEAST PART OF
THE CWA. DEW POINTS WILL CLIMB THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE FRONT
LIFTS NORTH. MOISTURE AXIS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT WILL
SPREAD NORTH WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. INTRODUCED
SOME PATCHY FOG OVER THE NERN HALF OF THE CWA WITH WINDS
DIMINISHING OVER NIGHT AND DEW POINTS TO REACH TEMPS EVENTUALLY.
DENSE FOG IS NOT LIKELY WITH ENOUGH MIXING IN PLACE...BUT ENOUGH
TO ADD A MENTION.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. MID-LATITUDE TROF
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S. WILL AFFECT THE CWA THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING. SFC COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO ALREADY BE INTO THE NWRN CWA
BY 12Z MONDAY...AND CONTINUING TO MOVE SOUTHEAST...WITH THE SFC
WARM FRONT TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CWA. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE LEVELS
WILL BE RELATIVELY HIGH...AND THE COLUMNAR MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
INVOF THE BOUNDARY. SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL BE PRESENT ESPECIALLY IN
THE AFTERNOON. HAVE KEPT CHC TO SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR SHRA GOING
ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG. DRIZZLE MAY OCCUR IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
FOG OUTSIDE ANY AREAS OF SHRA. BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN WILL OCCUR
INVOF THE SFC BOUNDARY AS WELL AS BEHIND IT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CWA...IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE POLAR JET. ISOLD TSRA IS POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA ON MONDAY AFTN
WITH MUCAPE VALUES OF AT LEAST 200-300 J/KG.
BRIEF RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM UPON ITS EXIT...BUT
HEIGHTS BEGIN FALLING AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE CWA AS
THE NEXT IMPULSE DIVES SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA. ECMWF IS DEEPER
THAN THE GFS WITH THIS FEATURE. HAVE REMOVED POPS FROM THE FCST
DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS CONFIDENCE IN MEASURABLE PCPN HAS
DECREASED. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS BEEN TRENDING DRIER VS YESTERDAY.
HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON SUNDAY. RETURN FLOW IN WAA
REGIME ON BACK SIDE OF DEPARTING SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT
SHRA.
&&
.AVIATION...27/00Z
ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014
RELATIVELY QUIET AVIATION-WISE OVERNIGHT AS FRONT ADVANCES INTO
THE STATE. WILL SEE PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS WITH ONLY CIRRUS
CEILINGS OVERHEAD. THERE WILL BE A DECREASE IN CEILING HEIGHT
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE BOUNDARY LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
BUT MOST INDICATION VIA SOUNDINGS AND RAP OUTPUT SUGGEST VFR
CEILINGS PERSISTING. SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH STATE ON MONDAY BUT
LIMITED MOISTURE WILL KEEP RAINFALL QUITE ISOLATED AND HAVE
FOREGONE MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS POINT. SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT ADVANCES ACRS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MS OCT 14
LONG TERM...ZOGG
AVIATION...COGIL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
553 PM MDT SUN OCT 26 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM MDT SUN OCT 26 2014
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW RIDGE CENTERED
OVER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND TROUGH BUILDING SOUTH INTO THE
WESTERN US. SW FLOW IS IN PLACE OVR THE CENTRAL ROCKIES/NORTHERN
PLAINS WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER OUR CWA. AT THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT IS MOVING OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO
WITH A WARM FRONT OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA. SURFACE TROUGH HAS SHIFTED
EAST WITH LIGHT NW LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS OUR CWA.
PRECIP TONIGHT-MONDAY...GUIDANCE SHOWING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
TONIGHT FROM NW TO SE THROUGH SUNRISE. MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
PASS ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY WITH BETTER FORCING OVER OUR CWA
ALONG THE SOUTHERN AXIS OF THIS TROUGH BETWEEN THE MID-MORNING TO
EARLY AFTERNOON PERIOD. LIMITING FACTOR FOR PRECIPITATION TONIGHT
AND MONDAY CONTINUES TO BE A VERY DRY AIR MASS THAT WILL HAVE TO BE
OVERCOME FOR ANY PRECIPITATION TO REACH THE GROUND. BY MIDDAY MONDAY
SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE A SATURATED LAYER WITHIN 4-8KFT AGL...HOWEVER
THERE IS STILL A DRY LAYER BELOW THIS WITH TD DEPRESSIONS 30-40F.
THERE IS SOME WEAK INSTABILITY WITHIN THIS LAYER...WHICH COULD
SUPPORT A FEW MODERATE SHOWERS...WHICH COULD REACH THE SURFACE AS
MEASURABLE RAINFALL. SEEMS LIKELY WE WILL SEE VIRGA AND MAYBE
SCATTERED SPRINKLES...AND ONLY ISOLATED 0.01-0.05" AMOUNTS OUT OF
THIS EVENT. KEPT NW TO SE TIMING FROM 06Z TONIGHT THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON MONDAY...LIMITING POPS TO 20 BASED ON LIMITED CONFIDENCE
ON MEASURABLE PRECIP.
WIND/RH THIS AFTERNOON-MONDAY...LOW SURFACE TD VALUES ALREADY
ADVECTING EAST HAVE ALLOWED RH VALUES TO DROP TO NEAR 15
PERCENT...HOWEVER WITH WINDS ALREADY BACKING OFF AND STRONGER GUSTS
(20-25KT) LIMITED TO THE FAR NW WHERE IS HIGHER RED FLAG CONDITIONS
ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY. SURFACE TD WILL CONTINUE TO DROP THROUGH
THE DAY MONDAY...HOWEVER WITH COOLING AIR MASS AND HIGHS IN THE
50S/60S RH VALUES WILL NOT DROP TO NECESSARY LEVELS FOR RED FLAG
WARNING. WINDS ON THE OTHER HAND WILL INCREASE AS COLD FRONT DROPS
SOUTH...AND WITH MIXING TO AROUND 800MB WE SHOULD SEE GUSTS 30-40
MPH MONDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. ADVISORY CRITERIA IS NOT
CURRENTLY EXPECTED BASED ON CURRENT GFS/NAM MIXING HEIGHTS/850-775MB
WINDS. IF WE WERE TO MIX TO 700MB MAYBE WE COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS IN
THE 45-48 MPH RANGE...HOWEVER THE WOULD BE MOST LIKELY WITH
VIRGA/LIGHT SHOWERS AND NOT A WIDESPREAD THREAT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM MDT SUN OCT 26 2014
UPPER FLOW WILL BE NORTHWEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THIS TIME.
SUBSIDENCE AND LACK OF MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE FA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DYNAMICS FROM THE EXITING TROUGH SHOULD
BE OUTSIDE OF THE FA BY MONDAY EVENING. POPS WILL BE NIL THROUGH
THIS PART OF THE FORECAST.
FROST POTENTIAL LOOKS GOOD FOR MONDAY NIGHT WITH A HARD FREEZE
POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST
KANSAS...WEST OF HIGHWAY 27. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR FROST
AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT BUT A HARD FREEZE IS NOT EXPECTED SINCE
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS COLD. PLAN ON ISSUING A FREEZE WATCH
FOR LATE MONDAY NIGHT IN COORDINATION WITH BOU AND PUB OFFICES. SEE
DETAILS BELOW.
MIN TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 20S WEST
OF HIGHWAY 27 WITH LOWER TO MID 30S EAST ACROSS THE KANSAS ZONES.
MIN TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE MID 30S. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE LOWER 60S.
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 70S ARE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY.
IN THE EXTENDED...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FA THROUGH SUNDAY AS A RIDGE
BUILDS EAST FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS. BY SUNDAY UPPER FLOW
TURNS SOUTHWEST AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO
THE NORTH PLAINS. SINCE MOISTURE IS TOO FAR NORTH CHANCES ARE VERY
SLIM FOR ANYTHING MEASURABLE IN THE FA. CONSEQUENTLY, POPS WILL BE
NIL SUNDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL WARM TO THE
LOWER 70S BY SUNDAY AS 850 TEMPERATURES WARM TO AROUND 20C. MIN
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S WILL WARM TO THE LOWER 40S BY
SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 548 PM MDT SUN OCT 26 2014
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT MCK AND GLD.
LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 12-14Z
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT AFTER 06Z. ISOLATED
SPRINKLES TO VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION BETWEEN 12Z-22Z...BUT
DO NOT EXPECT THEM TO BE A PREVAILING CONDITION AND HAVE LEFT THEM
OUT OF THE MCK AND GLD TAFS.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
KSZ001-013-027.
CO...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
COZ090>092.
NE...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
NEZ079.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...LOCKHART
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
208 PM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW LARGE SCALE RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...EXTENDING NORTH INTO THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS IN PLACE OVER SE
COLORADO AND NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. A STALLED FRONT IS BISECTING OUR CWA...EXTENDING
FROM NE COLORADO TO CENTRAL KANSAS (ROUGHLY ALONG A KAKO-KGLD-
KHYS LINE).
WITH STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE AND MAIN STORM TRACK WELL NORTH OF THE
CWA...PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AGAIN
SUNDAY AND POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG TONIGHT.
REGARDING DENSE FOG...NAM/RUC/HRRR RH AND VIS FIELDS CONTINUE TO
SHOW POSSIBILITY OF DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT NORTH OF THE QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT. SREF PROBABILITIES ARE ALSO SHOWING THIS.
LOCATION OF FRONT AND MOISTURE POOLING ALONG/NORTH OF THIS FEATURE
WILL LIKELY BE CRITICAL TO DENSE FOG LOCATION...IN ADDITION NEAR
INVERSION LAYER WINDS 10-20KT MAY ALLOW FOR ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP
VIS HIGHER UNTIL LOW LEVELS COMPLETELY DECOUPLE AROUND SUNRISE.
THERE IS ALSO INDICATION FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS AND CURRENT
GFS THAT FRONT WILL BE FURTHER NORTH AND EAST WHICH WOULD ALLOW
LOWER TD VALUES TO ADVECT EASTWARD WITH SHIFT IN LOW LEVEL FLOW.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN FOG DEVELOPMENT...BUT LOCATION IS ENOUGH OF
A QUESTION TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUANCE OF ADVISORY DURING DAYTIME
UPDATE PACKAGE.
TEMP FORECAST SUNDAY IS ALSO COMPLICATED BY POSITION OF QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER TEMPS ALOFT NORTH OF THIS
FRONT. ANY LINGERING STRATUS/FOG WOULD ALSO THROW A WRENCH INTO
THINGS...ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTHEAST. OVERALL I THINK TEMPS WILL
BE VERY SIMILAR TODAY...WITH SLIGHTLY "COOLER" TEMPS NORTH OF THE
FRONT JUST LIKE TODAY. EITHER WAY TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
LOWER 80S FOR MOST PARTS OF THE CWA SUNDAY...AND IF FRONT LIFTS
NORTHEAST WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW COULD SUPPORT RECORD HIGHS IN
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 PM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014
UPPER FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AHEAD OF A
TROUGH THAT MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST MONDAY NIGHT WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW FOLLOWING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE TROUGH
WILL BE OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT.
THE UPPER TROUGH THAT COMES THROUGH HAS GOOD DYNAMICS BUT MOISTURE
IS LACKING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE DRY LOW LEVELS WITH
MARGINAL SATURATION AT MID LEVELS. ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION INTO MONDAY EVENING DUE TO THE TROUGH STILL
OVER THE AREA, THE GFS AND NAM TAKE THE BEST MOISTURE EAST OF THE FA
BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MAY BE OPTIMISTIC BUT WILL
KEEP THEM GOING. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO THE WINDY CATEGORY MONDAY
WITH GUSTS FROM 25 TO 35KTS. WIND SPEEDS COULD INCREASE TO LOW END
ADVISORY LEVELS. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT MONDAY NIGHT AND WITH
CLOUDS CLEARING AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 20S, WIDESPREAD FROST
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN COLORADO. TEMPERATURES MAY GET COLD
ENOUGH FOR A HARD FREEZE IN EASTERN COLORADO. FOR NOW WILL KEEP
FROST IN THE GRIDS AND MONITOR THE HARD FREEZE POTENTIAL.
SUBSIDENCE FOLLOWS THE EXITING TROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FA SO POPS WILL BE NIL.
MAX TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN
EASTERN COLORADO TO THE LOWER/MID 60S IN THE EASTERN FA. MIN
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 40S SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN COOL TO
THE LOWER TO MID 30S MONDAY NIGHT.
IN THE EXTENDED...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY
A RIDGE THAT WILL BUILD INTO THE ROCKIES THURSDAY AND INTO THE
PLAINS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP POPS NIL THROUGH
THIS PERIOD.
MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THIS PART OF THE
FORECAST WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S WEDNESDAY COOLING
TO THE LOWER 60S THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD COOL TO THE MID 30S. SOME FROST WILL BE
POSSIBLE AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
SLIGHTLY TO THE MID AND UPPER 30S WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1121 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. A FEW WIND GUSTS 18-20KT WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KGLD THIS
AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 12KT AT BOTH
KGLD/KMCK.
FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHCENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA LATE TONIGHT (GENERALLY AFTER 08-09Z) ALONG AND NORTH OF
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. BEST MOISTURE POOLING WILL BE NEAR
KMCK WHERE NAM/SREF/RUC CONTINUE TO SHOW DENSE FOG/LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT. INITIALLY MIXING MAY KEEP VIS HIGHER AND MAINLY LOW
STRATUS...HOWEVER AS LOW LEVELS STABILIZE AND MIXING DIMINISHES I
EXPECT VIS TO DROP SIGNIFICANTLY BY SUNRISE. FOG MAY REACH AS FAR
WEST AS KGLD...HOWEVER AT THIS POINT GUIDANCE IS KEEPING VFR
CONDITIONS IN PLACE AT KGLD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. I INTRODUCED
LIFR GROUP BY 12Z AT KMCK BASED ON CURRENT CONFIDENCE.
GRADIENT BEGINS TO INCREASE SUNDAY AS LEE TROUGH DEEPENS WITH
GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING AT GLD. AS THE WINDS SHIFT TO MORE OF A
WESTERLY DIRECTION LOWER TD VALUES TO ADVECT EAST WHICH COMBINED
WITH SOLAR HEATING SHOULD HELP DIMINISH FOG.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
237 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014
...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 106 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014
A LARGE RIDGE OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
CENTRAL U.S. TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH LOTS OF CLEAR SKIES AND WARM
TEMPERATURES.
850MB TEMPS WARM TO AROUND 22 CELSIUS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AND
AFTERNOON MIXING SHOULD BRING HIGHS TO NEAR RECORDS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL
DEEPEN WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY
UPSLOPE AT 10 TO 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS UPSLOPE COMPONENT
WILL HOLD HIGHS BACK A BIT FROM YESTERDAYS HIGHS. RECORDS RUN FROM
88 AT DODGE CITY, 91 AT GARDEN CITY, AND 90 AT MEDICINE LODGE.
WILL GO WITH AROUND 85 AT DODGE, TO 86 AT GARDEN, AND 87 AT
MEDICINE LODGE. SOME STRATUS/FOG MAY FORM NEAR MEDICINE LODGE TO
PRATT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DEWPOINTS AROUND 60, BUT HRRR SHOWS
JUST EAST OF THERE.
TONIGHT THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY WITH
THE UPPER FLOW BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS WILL PUSH THE SURFACE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INTO WESTERN KANSAS LATE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTHERLY AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH CLEAR SKIES. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE MILD AND RANGE FROM UPPER 40S AROUND GARDEN CITY TO THE MID
50S AT DODGE CITY, AND UPPER 50S AT MEDICINE LODGE. THE COOLER TEMPS
IN THE WEST DUE TO THE LIGHTER WINDS NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS DURING THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK WHICH WILL IN TURN PUSH A
SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY MONDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE I-70 CORRIDOR MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING,
WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED MONDAY BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT MAKING IT
FEEL COOLER THAN IT ACTUALLY IS. SKIES THEN BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR ON
TUESDAY WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT ARE PROGGED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS TO UPPER 50S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. HIGHS
MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 60S ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS TO MID 70S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
ARE ANTICIPATED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS TO MID 40S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. HIGHS TUESDAY ARE
THEN EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S BEHIND THE FRONT.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS THEN PROGGED TO BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND SUPPRESSING ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FROM DEVELOPING OVER
WESTERN KANSAS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE DOWN THROUGH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEK PUSHING ANOTHER COLD FRONT AT
THE SURFACE THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS. HIGHS
THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S WITH LOWS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014
YOU CAN EXPECT SEVERE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 25 HOURS AT KDDC AND
KGCK TAF SITES. HARDLY ANY CLOUDS, LIGHT WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE
SOUTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS, AND NO VISIBILITY ISSUES. AT THE
KHYS SITE, THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT FOG TOWARDS SUNRISE
SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 54 87 53 71 / 0 0 0 10
GCK 49 86 49 68 / 0 0 0 20
EHA 53 85 52 68 / 0 0 0 10
LBL 53 87 53 70 / 0 0 0 10
HYS 52 82 52 67 / 0 0 0 10
P28 59 89 60 76 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KRUSE
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...BURKE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1253 PM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW LARGE SCALE RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...EXTENDING NORTH INTO THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS IN PLACE OVER SE
COLORADO AND NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. A STALLED FRONT IS BISECTING OUR CWA...EXTENDING
FROM NE COLORADO TO CENTRAL KANSAS (ROUGHLY ALONG A KAKO-KGLD-
KHYS LINE).
WITH STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE AND MAIN STORM TRACK WELL NORTH OF THE
CWA...PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AGAIN
SUNDAY AND POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG TONIGHT.
REGARDING DENSE FOG...NAM/RUC/HRRR RH AND VIS FIELDS CONTINUE TO
SHOW POSSIBILITY OF DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT NORTH OF THE QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT. SREF PROBABILITIES ARE ALSO SHOWING THIS.
LOCATION OF FRONT AND MOISTURE POOLING ALONG/NORTH OF THIS FEATURE
WILL LIKELY BE CRITICAL TO DENSE FOG LOCATION...IN ADDITION NEAR
INVERSION LAYER WINDS 10-20KT MAY ALLOW FOR ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP
VIS HIGHER UNTIL LOW LEVELS COMPLETELY DECOUPLE AROUND SUNRISE.
THERE IS ALSO INDICATION FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS AND CURRENT
GFS THAT FRONT WILL BE FURTHER NORTH AND EAST WHICH WOULD ALLOW
LOWER TD VALUES TO ADVECT EASTWARD WITH SHIFT IN LOW LEVEL FLOW.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN FOG DEVELOPMENT...BUT LOCATION IS ENOUGH OF
A QUESTION TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUANCE OF ADVISORY DURING DAYTIME
UPDATE PACKAGE.
TEMP FORECAST SUNDAY IS ALSO COMPLICATED BY POSITION OF QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER TEMPS ALOFT NORTH OF THIS
FRONT. ANY LINGERING STRATUS/FOG WOULD ALSO THROW A WRENCH INTO
THINGS...ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTHEAST. OVERALL I THINK TEMPS WILL
BE VERY SIMILAR TODAY...WITH SLIGHTLY "COOLER" TEMPS NORTH OF THE
FRONT JUST LIKE TODAY. EITHER WAY TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
LOWER 80S FOR MOST PARTS OF THE CWA SUNDAY...AND IF FRONT LIFTS
NORTHEAST WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW COULD SUPPORT RECORD HIGHS IN
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014
TUESDAY...FORECAST AREA UNDER SOME NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH SOME
WEAK/BROAD UPPER RIDGING WEST OF THE DIVIDE AND BROAD TROUGH ACROSS
THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. 850 TEMPERATURES SUPPORT CURRENT
FORECAST OF MID 50S TO MID 60S (WEST TO EAST) WHICH IS A DEGREE OR
TWO BELOW NORMAL. CONCERN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT IS FROST POTENTIAL.
GUIDANCE AND CURRENT FORECAST OF LOW TO MID 30S FOR MOST OF THE AREA
SEEMS REASONABLE...SOME CONCERN THAT THE SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10
MPH THAT DEVELOP AS SFC HIGH MOVES SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA AND
WARM AIR ALOFT MOVING IN FROM THE WEST COULD BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT
TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TO CURRENT VALUES...THEY MAY BE A LITTLE
"LESS COLD". WONT CHANGE THINGS UP TOO MUCH FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS
AT THIS TIME.
WEDNESDAY...MID AND A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM MID
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING...EXITING THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. NO
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. 850MB TEMPERATURES WARM ABOUT 13F FROM
TUESDAYS READINGS SUPPORTING AROUND 70/LOW 70S ACROSS THE AREA. LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S WEST TO LOW 40S EAST. FROST AGAIN
POSSIBLE FOR SOME. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.
THURSDAY...UPPER RIDGING STARTS TO MOVE TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE
WEST. THIS WOULD TYPICALLY SUPPORT WARMING 850MB TEMPERATURES AND
AFTERNOON HIGHS BUT A COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHEAST
LOWERING 850MB TEMPERATURES TO VALUES SUPPORTIVE OF LOW TO MID
60S...RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR THE END OF OCTOBER. SFC RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDS INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT ALLOWING LOWS TO DROP INTO THE
LOW TO MID 30S. SOME FROST IS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN. NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED.
FRIDAY...GFS/ECMWF IS SOME DISAGREEMENT AS TO HOW MUCH UPPER RIDGING
MOVES INTO THE AREA WHICH IMPACTS LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS AND
TEMPERATURE FORECAST BOTH HIGH AND LOW. IF ONE WHERE TO BLEND THE
TWO 850MB TEMP FIELDS HIGHS WOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
WHICH ISNT TOO FAR OFF FROM CURRENT FORECAST (LOW 60S). NO
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1121 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. A FEW WIND GUSTS 18-20KT WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KGLD THIS
AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 12KT AT BOTH
KGLD/KMCK.
FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHCENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA LATE TONIGHT (GENERALLY AFTER 08-09Z) ALONG AND NORTH OF
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. BEST MOISTURE POOLING WILL BE NEAR
KMCK WHERE NAM/SREF/RUC CONTINUE TO SHOW DENSE FOG/LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT. INITIALLY MIXING MAY KEEP VIS HIGHER AND MAINLY LOW
STRATUS...HOWEVER AS LOW LEVELS STABILIZE AND MIXING DIMINISHES I
EXPECT VIS TO DROP SIGNIFICANTLY BY SUNRISE. FOG MAY REACH AS FAR
WEST AS KGLD...HOWEVER AT THIS POINT GUIDANCE IS KEEPING VFR
CONDITIONS IN PLACE AT KGLD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. I INTRODUCED
LIFR GROUP BY 12Z AT KMCK BASED ON CURRENT CONFIDENCE.
GRADIENT BEGINS TO INCREASE SUNDAY AS LEE TROUGH DEEPENS WITH
GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING AT GLD. AS THE WINDS SHIFT TO MORE OF A
WESTERLY DIRECTION LOWER TD VALUES TO ADVECT EAST WHICH COMBINED
WITH SOLAR HEATING SHOULD HELP DIMINISH FOG.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...DDT
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1213 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014
...UPDATED FOR THE AVIATION FORECAST...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 106 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014
A LARGE RIDGE OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
CENTRAL U.S. TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH LOTS OF CLEAR SKIES AND WARM
TEMPERATURES.
850MB TEMPS WARM TO AROUND 22 CELSIUS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AND
AFTERNOON MIXING SHOULD BRING HIGHS TO NEAR RECORDS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL
DEEPEN WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY
UPSLOPE AT 10 TO 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS UPSLOPE COMPONENT
WILL HOLD HIGHS BACK A BIT FROM YESTERDAYS HIGHS. RECORDS RUN FROM
88 AT DODGE CITY, 91 AT GARDEN CITY, AND 90 AT MEDICINE LODGE.
WILL GO WITH AROUND 85 AT DODGE, TO 86 AT GARDEN, AND 87 AT
MEDICINE LODGE. SOME STRATUS/FOG MAY FORM NEAR MEDICINE LODGE TO
PRATT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DEWPOINTS AROUND 60, BUT HRRR SHOWS
JUST EAST OF THERE.
TONIGHT THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY WITH
THE UPPER FLOW BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS WILL PUSH THE SURFACE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INTO WESTERN KANSAS LATE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTHERLY AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH CLEAR SKIES. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE MILD AND RANGE FROM UPPER 40S AROUND GARDEN CITY TO THE MID
50S AT DODGE CITY, AND UPPER 50S AT MEDICINE LODGE. THE COOLER TEMPS
IN THE WEST DUE TO THE LIGHTER WINDS NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014
ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH DEEP
MIXING OF WARM AND DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AIR EXPECTED. SURFACE WINDS
WILL BECOME WESTERLY WITH THE DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT HELPING WITH THE
WARMING. BY THE FIRST OF THE WEEK A PACIFIC ORIGIN COLD FRONT
WILL BE MOVING ACROSS MY CWA AS A STRONG S/WV THROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ALTHOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED, THERE SHOULD BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
FROM THE PASSING TROUGH (WITH THE PACIFIC ORIGINS). IF ALL PANS
OUT AS EXPECTED, THERE SHOULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF ACCENT WITH
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC JET LOCATED SOMEWHERE
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO GET AT LEAST VIRGA SHOWERS
OR SPRINKLES. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH AND DECREASING CLOUD
COVER, DRYING AIR AND DECREASING WINDS, THE MIN TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY SHOULD FALL BACK TO AT LEAST SEASONAL VALUES.
FOR THE BALANCE OF THE WEEK THERE SHOULD BE A TRANSITORY UPPER
RIDGE MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS SO THAT DRY WEATHER AND
TYPICAL LATE OCTOBER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014
YOU CAN EXPECT SEVERE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 25 HOURS AT KDDC AND
KGCK TAF SITES. HARDLY ANY CLOUDS, LIGHT WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE
SOUTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS, AND NO VISIBILITY ISSUES. AT THE
KHYS SITE, THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT FOG TOWARDS SUNRISE
SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 87 54 87 52 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 87 49 86 49 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 87 53 85 51 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 88 53 87 53 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 84 52 82 53 / 0 0 0 0
P28 87 59 89 59 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KRUSE
LONG TERM...HUTTON
AVIATION...BURKE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
649 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014
...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 106 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014
A LARGE RIDGE OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
CENTRAL U.S. TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH LOTS OF CLEAR SKIES AND WARM
TEMPERATURES.
850MB TEMPS WARM TO AROUND 22 CELSIUS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AND
AFTERNOON MIXING SHOULD BRING HIGHS TO NEAR RECORDS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL
DEEPEN WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY
UPSLOPE AT 10 TO 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS UPSLOPE COMPONENT
WILL HOLD HIGHS BACK A BIT FROM YESTERDAYS HIGHS. RECORDS RUN FROM
88 AT DODGE CITY, 91 AT GARDEN CITY, AND 90 AT MEDICINE LODGE.
WILL GO WITH AROUND 85 AT DODGE, TO 86 AT GARDEN, AND 87 AT
MEDICINE LODGE. SOME STRATUS/FOG MAY FORM NEAR MEDICINE LODGE TO
PRATT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DEWPOINTS AROUND 60, BUT HRRR SHOWS
JUST EAST OF THERE.
TONIGHT THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY WITH
THE UPPER FLOW BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS WILL PUSH THE SURFACE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INTO WESTERN KANSAS LATE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTHERLY AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH CLEAR SKIES. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE MILD AND RANGE FROM UPPER 40S AROUND GARDEN CITY TO THE MID
50S AT DODGE CITY, AND UPPER 50S AT MEDICINE LODGE. THE COOLER TEMPS
IN THE WEST DUE TO THE LIGHTER WINDS NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014
ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH DEEP
MIXING OF WARM AND DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AIR EXPECTED. SURFACE WINDS
WILL BECOME WESTERLY WITH THE DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT HELPING WITH THE
WARMING. BY THE FIRST OF THE WEEK A PACIFIC ORIGIN COLD FRONT
WILL BE MOVING ACROSS MY CWA AS A STRONG S/WV THROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ALTHOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED, THERE SHOULD BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
FROM THE PASSING TROUGH (WITH THE PACIFIC ORIGINS). IF ALL PANS
OUT AS EXPECTED, THERE SHOULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF ACCENT WITH
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC JET LOCATED SOMEWHERE
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO GET AT LEAST VIRGA SHOWERS
OR SPRINKLES. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH AND DECREASING CLOUD
COVER, DRYING AIR AND DECREASING WINDS, THE MIN TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY SHOULD FALL BACK TO AT LEAST SEASONAL VALUES.
FOR THE BALANCE OF THE WEEK THERE SHOULD BE A TRANSITORY UPPER
RIDGE MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS SO THAT DRY WEATHER AND
TYPICAL LATE OCTOBER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014
STRATUS AND FOG WILL BE CREEPING UP INTO THE PRATT AND MEDICINE
LODGE AREAS BEFORE SUNRISE BUT THEN SHOULD QUICKLY BURN OFF BY
MID-MORNING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 85 54 87 52 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 86 49 86 49 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 85 53 85 51 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 86 53 87 53 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 82 52 82 53 / 0 0 0 0
P28 87 59 89 59 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KRUSE
LONG TERM...HUTTON
AVIATION...HUTTON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
314 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014
...UPDATED FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 106 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014
A LARGE RIDGE OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
CENTRAL U.S. TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH LOTS OF CLEAR SKIES AND WARM
TEMPERATURES.
850MB TEMPS WARM TO AROUND 22 CELSIUS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AND
AFTERNOON MIXING SHOULD BRING HIGHS TO NEAR RECORDS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL
DEEPEN WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY
UPSLOPE AT 10 TO 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS UPSLOPE COMPONENT
WILL HOLD HIGHS BACK A BIT FROM YESTERDAYS HIGHS. RECORDS RUN FROM
88 AT DODGE CITY, 91 AT GARDEN CITY, AND 90 AT MEDICINE LODGE.
WILL GO WITH AROUND 85 AT DODGE, TO 86 AT GARDEN, AND 87 AT
MEDICINE LODGE. SOME STRATUS/FOG MAY FORM NEAR MEDICINE LODGE TO
PRATT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DEWPOINTS AROUND 60, BUT HRRR SHOWS
JUST EAST OF THERE.
TONIGHT THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY WITH
THE UPPER FLOW BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS WILL PUSH THE SURFACE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INTO WESTERN KANSAS LATE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTHERLY AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH CLEAR SKIES. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE MILD AND RANGE FROM UPPER 40S AROUND GARDEN CITY TO THE MID
50S AT DODGE CITY, AND UPPER 50S AT MEDICINE LODGE. THE COOLER TEMPS
IN THE WEST DUE TO THE LIGHTER WINDS NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014
ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH DEEP
MIXING OF WARM AND DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AIR EXPECTED. SURFACE WINDS
WILL BECOME WESTERLY WITH THE DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT HELPING WITH THE
WARMING. BY THE FIRST OF THE WEEK A PACIFIC ORIGIN COLD FRONT
WILL BE MOVING ACROSS MY CWA AS A STRONG S/WV THROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ALTHOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED, THERE SHOULD BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
FROM THE PASSING TROUGH (WITH THE PACIFIC ORIGINS). IF ALL PANS
OUT AS EXPECTED, THERE SHOULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF ACCENT WITH
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC JET LOCATED SOMEWHERE
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO GET AT LEAST VIRGA SHOWERS
OR SPRINKLES. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH AND DECREASING CLOUD
COVER, DRYING AIR AND DECREASING WINDS, THE MIN TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY SHOULD FALL BACK TO AT LEAST SEASONAL VALUES.
FOR THE BALANCE OF THE WEEK THERE SHOULD BE A TRANSITORY UPPER
RIDGE MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS SO THAT DRY WEATHER AND
TYPICAL LATE OCTOBER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY 10-16KT AFTER 18Z AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS IN EASTERN COLORADO. TONIGHT THE
WINDS DECREASE TO AROUND 10KT WITH DECOUPLING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 85 54 87 52 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 86 49 86 49 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 85 53 85 51 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 86 53 87 53 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 82 52 82 53 / 0 0 0 0
P28 87 59 89 59 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KRUSE
LONG TERM...HUTTON
AVIATION...KRUSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
109 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014
...UPDATED FOR SHORT TERM...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 106 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014
A LARGE RIDGE OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
CENTRAL U.S. TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH LOTS OF CLEAR SKIES AND WARM
TEMPERATURES.
850MB TEMPS WARM TO AROUND 22 CELSIUS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AND
AFTERNOON MIXING SHOULD BRING HIGHS TO NEAR RECORDS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL
DEEPEN WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY
UPSLOPE AT 10 TO 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS UPSLOPE COMPONENT
WILL HOLD HIGHS BACK A BIT FROM YESTERDAYS HIGHS. RECORDS RUN FROM
88 AT DODGE CITY, 91 AT GARDEN CITY, AND 90 AT MEDICINE LODGE.
WILL GO WITH AROUND 85 AT DODGE, TO 86 AT GARDEN, AND 87 AT
MEDICINE LODGE. SOME STRATUS/FOG MAY FORM NEAR MEDICINE LODGE TO
PRATT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DEWPOINTS AROUND 60, BUT HRRR SHOWS
JUST EAST OF THERE.
TONIGHT THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY WITH
THE UPPER FLOW BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS WILL PUSH THE SURFACE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INTO WESTERN KANSAS LATE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTHERLY AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH CLEAR SKIES. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE MILD AND RANGE FROM UPPER 40S AROUND GARDEN CITY TO THE MID
50S AT DODGE CITY, AND UPPER 50S AT MEDICINE LODGE. THE COOLER TEMPS
IN THE WEST DUE TO THE LIGHTER WINDS NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014
THE ANOMALOUSLY WARM STRETCH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE WEEKEND.
UPPER 80S APPEAR LIKELY, APPROACHING RECORD HIGHS (89F IS THE RECORD
HIGH AT DODGE CITY SUNDAY). THIS WILL BE THE LAST DAY, THOUGH, AS
THE TIMING OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL BE EARLY ENOUGH IN THE DAY TO
OFFSET WARMING FROM DIRECT INSOLATION. THE COOLER ECMWF WAS FOLLOWED
GIVEN THE EXPECTED STRONGER INITIAL COLD ADVECTION. LATE MONDAY
NIGHT, WE WILL MAINTAIN SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE 700MB
FRONT, HOWEVER THE MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AT 700MB AND THE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE MOVING QUICKLY EAST TO OUR NORTH. THE
LATEST ECMWF SUGGESTS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE MOVING SOUTHEAST
IN THE BROADER NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN LATE WEDNESDAY AND INTO
THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING BACK UP INTO
THE MID-UPPER 70S, WHICH IS REFLECTED ALREADY IN THE FORECAST.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKELY PREVAIL LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE
UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL BE DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS ARIZONA.
LIGHT WINDS AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S ARE LIKELY WITH A
NEAR-ZERO CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION MID TO LATE WEEK AS THE POLAR JET
STREAM SHIFTS WELL BACK TO THE NORTH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY 10-16KT AFTER 18Z AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS IN EASTERN COLORADO. TONIGHT THE
WINDS DECREASE TO AROUND 10KT WITH DECOUPLING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 85 54 88 54 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 86 49 86 49 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 85 53 84 49 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 86 53 87 51 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 82 52 83 51 / 0 0 0 0
P28 87 59 90 62 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KRUSE
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...KRUSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1105 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 151 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014
WITH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS THE DRY AND MILD PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS...STALLING OUT JUST NORTH/NORTHEAST OF THE CWA TOMORROW.
TODAY...MOSTLY SUNNY AND RECORD-BREAKING WARMTH. AS OF THE EARLY
AFTERNOON AT LEAST ONE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE HAS BEEN TIED AND A
FEW OTHERS ARE A FEW DEGREES SHY OF RECORD VALUES. RAP ANALYSIS
DEPICTS 850MB TEMPS ON THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE...AND MORNING
TEMPS ROSE ACCORDINGLY. SOME EARLY CLOUD COVER ALONG/EAST OF HIGHWAY
83 LIMITED HEATING THIS MORNING...BUT UNDER NEAR-FULL SUNSHINE EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON TEMPS ARE NEAR FORECAST VALUES. DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN
MARKEDLY DRIER THAN MOST ALL GUIDANCE EXCEPT FOR THE HRRR WHICH HAS
BEEN DEPICTING WHAT SEEMED THIS MORNING TO BE A VERY AGGRESSIVE DROP
IN DEW POINTS...IN THE 20S F ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. WINDS ARE
LIGHT /LESS THAN 10MPH/ SO THANKFULLY FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
NOT A CONCERN TODAY.
TONIGHT...CLOUDS CLEAR OUT BUT WARM AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE. LOW
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID/UPPER 40S...ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION. WITH DRY AIR MOVING
IN FOG IS OF NO CONCERN.
TOMORROW...SATURDAY...ANOTHER DRY AND MILD DAY. TEMPS WILL NOT BE AS
HOT AS FRIDAY AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT...850MB TEMPS IN THE LOW 20S C LEADING TO HIGHS WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AT 10-15
KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS. RECORD HIGHS MAY BE BROKEN...SEE CLIMATE
SECTION FOR DETAILS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014
NAM/SREF ARE SHOWING MOISTURE RETURN EAST OF SURFACE TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN PART OF THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WHICH
COULD LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT. NAM/SREF ARE SHOWING REDUCED VIS IN
THESE AREAS...SO I INTRODUCED PATCHY FOG MENTION OVER THE
NORTHEAST PART OF CWA.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN DECENT AGREEMENT AT LEAST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK ON THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WITH RIDGE KEEPING
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE SUNDAY...AND
A QUICK MOVING POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT.
JUST LIKE IN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...LIFT IS DECENT...HOWEVER
MOISTURE IS NOT IMPRESSIVE AND I CONSIDERED ONLY HAVING MENTION OF
SPRINKLES AND NO MEASURABLE PRECIP. THERE IS STILL A WEAK PRECIP
SIGNAL ON MOST GUIDANCE...AND I COULDNT RULE OUT A FEW LOCATIONS
GETTING A FEW HUNDREDTHS SO I LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN PLACE
MONDAY-MONDAY EVENING. AS THE SURFACE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE CWA
AND SURFACE GRADIENT INCREASES WE COULD SEE WINDY CONDITIONS
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. I TRENDED WINDS UP A LITTLE
MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT AM STILL A LITTLE LOWER THAN WHAT NAM ML
WINDS WOULD INDICATE.
SKIES SHOULD RAPIDLY CLEAR MONDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASING
WINDS...AND LOW TD VALUES IN THE 20S. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND FROST CHANCES APPEAR TO BE INCREASING. I
KEPT FORECAST IN THE 30-36F RANGE...HOWEVER I COULD SEE A FEW COLD
SPOTS DROPPING TO 28F.
PATTERN SHIFTS TO A BRIEF WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW BEFORE RIDGE
AMPLIFIES OVER THE WESTERN US...RESULTING IN NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW
OVER THE PLAINS. GUIDANCE GENERALLY SHOWING A SIMILAR
PATTERN...THOUGH THERE ARE SMALLER VARIANCES LIKELY A RESULT OF
WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES. A VERY DRY AIR MASS IS ADVERTISED...SO
EVEN IF WE DO SE DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW I DO NOT
ANTICIPATE PRECIP AND ONLY PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. TEMPS WILL TEND TO
BE JUST BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS AROUND 60F MONDAY-FRIDAY...WITH
WESTERLY FLOW SUPPORTING SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE UPPER 60S/NEAR 70
ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1102 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014
A SURFACE LEE TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE THROUGH THE DAY
ON SATURDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES FROM THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITH CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH GLD AND MCK.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL TURN SOUTHEAST BETWEEN
10-15KTS BY 19Z WITH GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AT
GLD FOLLOWED BY DECREASING WINDS AFTER 23Z AT BOTH GLD AND MCK.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...LOCKHART
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
548 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A SLIGHT COOL DOWN FOR SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM WELL
ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
BRING RAIN AND A RETURN TO COLDER TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY WORKING THROUGH THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH JUST A FEW
CLOUDS MANAGING TO BE GENERATED AHEAD OF IT. A DEARTH OF LAYER
MOISTURE IS EVIDENT WITH IT...AND GIVEN FAIRLY STRONG BOUNDARY
LAYER DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AHEAD OF IT...EVEN THE LIFT ALONG THE
FRONT WILL BE INSUFFICIENT TO GENERATE ANY RAIN SHOWERS AS IT
PASSES. THAT SAID...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG MIXING
AHEAD...ALONG..AND BEHIND THE FRONT ARE EVIDENT...AND GIVEN STRONG
MOMENTUM IN THE LOWEST 5 KFT OF THE OVERNIGHT MODEL SOUNDINGS...IT
WOULD SEEM SOME WIND GUSTS WILL BE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF TONIGHT.
THE BIGGEST RAMIFICATION OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BEYOND THE WIND
WILL LIKELY BE THE FALL IN DEWPOINTS. UPSTREAM DEWPOINT VALUES ARE
RUNNING INTO THE 20S AND 30S...DOWN FROM THE LOWER 50S OVER THE
REGION NOW. WHILE NEITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT IS MOIST...IT IS QUITE
CERTAIN THAT VERY DRY AIR IS ON ITS WAY IN. AS A RESULT...SKIES
WERE CLEARED OUT RAPIDLY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND WILL
LIKELY REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. FRIES
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL BRING FLOW WITH A SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT...ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURE TO RISE ABOVE NORMAL. NEARLY
ALL LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE 70S ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN
ADVANCING COLD FRONT. HAVE SPED UP ARRIVAL TIME OF PRECIP...AND HAVE
NOW BROUGHT IN A CHANCE OF RAIN EVERYWHERE BY LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. 12Z GFS AND NAM BOTH SHOW SMALL AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY IN
ZANESVILLE SOUNDING...AND HAVE ALSO ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER
FOR PORTIONS OF OHIO.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL RACE ACROSS REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND HAVE GONE
WITH LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS WITH FRO PA AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE STRETCHED ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. BY FRIDAY DEEPENING
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING
SHOWERS BACK TO THE REGION FOLLOWED BY MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS FOR
THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL MID EVENING BEFORE
DECOUPLING AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN HOW SOON WINDS WILL LESSEN AT THE SURFACE BUT FOR
NOW REFLECT THIS OCCURRING SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AT MOST
LOCATIONS. IF WINDS DECOUPLE EARLIER...LOW LEVEL IND SHEAR WILL
BE A CONCERN AS LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW 40KTS AT 1KFT AGL BY MID
EVENING. REMOVED MVFR CIGS FROM 18Z TAFS AS MUCH DRIER AIR WILL BE
MOVING IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. MODELS ARE ALL IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW A LARGE ENOUGH MARGIN BETWEEN TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT
PROFILES DESPITE THE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT.
OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
738 PM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW UPR RDG OVER
CENTRAL NAMERICA BLDG TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LKS BTWN SLOWLY DEPARTING
CLOSED LO OVER SE CANADA AND ANOTHER DEEP TROF OVER THE W. AT THE
SFC...HI PRES RDG AXIS AND DRY AIRMASS SHOWN ON THE 12Z INL/MPX
RAOBS...WHERE 12Z PWAT WAS 0.25-0.30 INCH...ARE PRESSING EWD THRU
THE UPR LKS...BRINGING MOSUNNY SKIES TO UPR MI. SOME SC LINGERS OVER
THE FAR E UNDER LLVL NW FLOW/THERMAL TROF AHEAD OF THE RDG AXIS...
AND SOME CI SPILLING OVER THE UPR RDG AXIS TO THE NE OF H85 WARM FNT
IN THE NRN PLAINS IS MOVING INTO THE W. DEEPENING SFC LO PRES IS
MOVING SLOWLY E THRU THE NRN PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF THE WRN TROF...BUT
OVERALL DRYNESS OF THE AIRMASS IN THE NRN PLAINS HAS PREVENTED ANY
PCPN AND EVEN MUCH CLD COVER SO FAR. 12Z H85 TEMPS WERE AOA 20C IN
THE NCENTRAL PLAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS LO.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUSED ON CLD/PCPN TRENDS
ASSOCIATED WITH APRCHG WARM FNT.
TNGT WL START OFF MAINLY CLEAR WITH JUST SOME SCT HI CLDS...BUT THEN
CLDS WL THICKEN THRU THE NGT WITH DVLPG WAD BTWN HI PRES RDG
DEPARTING TO THE E AND LO PRES MOVING TOWARD LK WINNIPEG AND NE OF
ATTENDANT WARM FNT MOVING NE THRU WI. ALTHOUGH LINGERING LLVL DRY
AIR AND PASSAGE OF SHARPER H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC TO THE NW MAY TEND TO
LIMIT POPS...FCST DEEP ISENTROPIC ASCENT WITH VIGOROUS H85-5
MOISTENING LIFTING PWAT TOWARD ARND AN INCH OR 225 PCT OF NORMAL
OVER THE W BY 12Z MON...BAND OF FCST H85-7 FGEN TO THE NE OF THE H85
WARM FNT AND INCRSG UPR DVGC JUSTIFY BUMPING POPS UP A BIT OVER THE
W HALF LATE. BUT OVERALL INITIAL DRYNESS OF THE AIRMASS WARRANTS A
FCST OF NO HIER THAN HI CHC POPS. MAINTAINED MENTION OF SOME THUNDER
OVER THE W LATER AT NGT...WHEN MID LVL LAPSE RATES ARE FCST TO
STEEPEN AND FCST SDNGS INDICATE MUCAPE UP TO 500 J/KG. THE STEEPER
MID LVL LAPSE RATES FCST ARE REASONABLE GIVEN THE VERY HI H85 TEMPS
OBSVD IN THE PLAINS TODAY. DESPITE THE EXPECTED INCRSG CLDS/MSTR...
DRYNESS OF THE AIRMASS IN PLACE SUGGESTS LOWERING FCST LO TEMPS A
BIT. EXPECT THE LOWEST MIN TEMPS TOWARD THE LO END OF GUIDANCE OVER
THE INTERIOR E...WHERE CLDS WL INCRS LATEST. HOURLY TEMPS FCST WL
SHOW RELATIVELY EARLY MINS WITH RISING READINGS LATER TNGT UNDER THE
INCRSG/THICKENING CLDS.
MON...INCRSD POPS TO LIKELY ON MON MRNG OVER THE E HALF WHERE MODELS
SHOW INCRSG UPR DVGC/BAND OF H85-7 FGEN AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT
COINCIDENT WITH INCRSG PWAT UP TO ABOUT 215 PCT OF NORMAL. MODEL
FCST SDNGS INDICATE MUCAPE 500-1000 J/KG WHEN LIFTING FM ARND H8 ON
MON. GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF THIS ELEVATED INSTABILITY...NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION THERE COULD BE SOME HAIL UNDER ANY STRONGER STORM.
ARRIVAL OF DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC/MID LVL DRYING AND CAPPING W-E IN
THE AFTN FOLLOWING EXIT OF THE UPR DVGC/FGEN BAND WL DIMINISH THE
POPS. TENDED TOWARD THE LO END OF GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS ON MON
GIVEN HI SFC-H85 STABILITY/CLDS N OF SFC WARM FNT. ADDED A MENTION
OF SOME FOG LATE IN THE DAY OVER THE CENTRAL WITH INCRSGLY MOIST
UPSLOPE LLVL SE FLOW UNDER MID LVL DRYING IN ADVANCE OF SLOWLY
APRCHG WARM FNT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014
THE FORECAST FOR MON NIGHT/TUE REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN DUE TO
MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY /AND RESULTING
CYCLOGENESIS/ ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION. THE REAL DIFFERENCES ARE DUE TO THE PLACEMENT OF THE
SHORTWAVE. THE GFS KEEPS THE BEST ENERGY FARTHER N...RESULTING IN
THE DRY SLOT BEING OVER THE CWA MUCH OF MON NIGHT AND TUE. ON THE
OTHER HAND...THE NAM IS MUCH FARTHER S...RESULTING IN A DEEPER SFC
LOW THAT MOVES FROM CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN TO ERN UPPER MI...WHICH
MEAN MORE RAIN. THE ECMWF IS BETWEEN THE NAM AND GFS AND ONLY BRINGS
THE DRY SLOT INTO FAR SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...RESULTING IN A
WETTER FORECAST THAN THE GFS. VERY DIFFICULT TO LEAN TOO FAR ONE WAY
OR ANOTHER AT THIS POINT GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY
AND SFC CYCLOGENESIS...SO WILL GO WITH A CONSENSUS BLEND.
ADDITIONALLY...TUE WILL END UP BEING GUSTY...BUT THE EXTENT OF SUCH
DEPENDS LARGELY ON THE TRACK/STRENGTH OF THE SFC LOW...SO HARD TO
GET TOO SPECIFIC ON EXPECTED GUSTS AT THIS POINT. THE KEWEENAW
SHOULD SEE THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER UPPER MI DUE TO THE FAVORABLE
WLY WINDS DIRECTION.
TUE NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT...THE SYSTEM THAT MOVED THROUGH ON TUE WILL
MOVE INTO NRN QUEBEC BY LATE WED AS A SFC RIDGE MOVES TO THE WRN
CWA. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IMPROVES DURING THIS TIME AS CONDITIONS
TRANSITION TO A MORE FAVORABLE LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED RAIN/SNOW
SETUP...WHICH ENTAILS LESS MODEL VARIABILITY IN THIS CASE. BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NW...BUT WILL START TO BACK TO THE W
/FROM W TO E/ ON WED AFTERNOON AS THE RIDGE MOVES IN. THERE WILL BE
AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE
PREVIOUS SYSTEM INTO WED MORNING...BUT DRIER AIR WILL START TO
BECOME MORE DOMINANT ON WED. AS FOR TEMPS...850MB TEMPS WILL FALL
FROM AROUND -2C AT 00Z WED TO AROUND -6C AT 12Z WED. DURING THE DAY
ON WED...850MB TEMPS WILL FALL A COUPLE OF DEGREES OVER ERN LAKE
SUPERIOR WHILE WARMING A COUPLE OF DEGREES OVER THE WRN LAKE.
OVERALL...LOOKS LIKE A GOOD SETUP FOR LAKE EFFECT RAIN...WITH SNOW
BECOMING MORE LIKELY IN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN LATE TUE NIGHT AND
TO A LESSER EXTENT ON WED. SHOULD SEE A DIMINISHING TREND TO PRECIP
ON WED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WRN CWA. DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE ANY
SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.
STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY FOR LATE IN THE WEEK GIVEN POOR MODEL RUN
TO RUN CONTINUITY AND MODEL DISAGREEMENT...COMBINED WITH THE USUAL
CAVEATS WITH SHORTWAVES 5 DAYS OUT. THE GFS BRINGS THE SHORTWAVE
RIGHT ACROSS THE CWA...WHILE THE ECMWF MOVES THE SHORTWAVE FARTHER
SW. IN ANY CASE...MODELS HAVE SHOWN POOR RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY WITH
THE SHORTWAVE ITSELF...SO SYNOPTIC PRECIP IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.
THANKFULLY...THERE IS HIGHER CONFIDENCE WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW DUE TO
MODEL AGREEMENT ON NNW LOW LEVEL WINDS AND 850MB TEMPS AOB -10C FOR
MUCH OF FRI AND POSSIBLY INTO FRI NIGHT. THE LES SHOULD RAMP UP THU
NIGHT WHEN THE COLDER AIR SURGES INTO THE AREA /DEPENDENT ON
SHORTWAVE TIMING AS WELL/ AND SHOULD DIMINISH FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AS
A SFC RIDGE MAY SHIFT ACROSS THE CWA. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS IN NNW WIND SNOWBELTS EVEN IF THE SHORTWAVE DOES NOT
DIRECTLY IMPACT THE CWA...BUT WOULD BE GREATER IF THE SHORTWAVE DOES
IMPACT THE AREA. SHOULD ALSO BE WINDY FOR AT LEAST A SHORT PERIOD
THU NIGHT INTO FRI /DEPENDING ON THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE
SHORTWAVE/ AS A 1030MB SFC HIGH MOVES FROM THE WNW FAIRLY QUICKLY
BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE. SHOULD SEE A QUICK PERIOD OF GALES FROM THE
EVENT...BUT WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL THINGS BECOME MORE CERTAIN TO
GET TOO SPECIFIC ON WINDS SPEEDS.
SHOULD SEE ANY REMAINING LAKE EFFECT PRECIP DIE OUT/MOVE OUT ON SAT
AS MODELS SHOW THE SFC HIGH SHIFT E OF THE CWA. WILL RUN WITH A
CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...WHICH WILL SHOW A
WARMING TREND AS AN UPPER RIDGE PUSHES IN FROM THE W.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 738 PM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014
WELL IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT...SCT-NMRS SHRA WILL
DEVELOP AND SPREAD INTO THE UPPER LAKES TONIGHT. SOME TSTMS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED...BUT POTENTIAL OF TSTMS OCCURRING AT ANY OF THE TERMINALS
IS TOO LOW RIGHT NOW TO INCLUDE IN FCST. INITIALLY...VFR CONDITIONS
UNDER VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL DELAY DEVELOPMENT OF LOWER CIGS...BUT
AS INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR FLOWS INTO THE AREA...EXPECT CIGS TO FALL
TO MVFR MON MORNING. FAVORABLE UPSLOPE WIND AT KCMX/KSAW WILL LEAD
TO FURTHER REDUCTION TO IFR IN THE MID TO LATE AFTN. SHRA WILL
CONTINUE TO BE SCATTERED AROUND THE AREA THRU THE DAY MON.
FINALLY...CONTINUED TO INCLUDE LLWS AT KIWD AS LOW-LEVEL JET NOSES
INTO WRN UPPER MI BEFORE DECREASING SOMEWHAT AS IT SHIFTS E.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL LEAD TO DECREASING WINDS
TODAY. AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD WITH WINDS LESS THAN 20 KTS WITH THE
HIGH PRESSURE...SE WINDS INCREASE TO 30 KTS OVER MAINLY EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR ON MONDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. ONCE
THIS LOW MOVES TO THE EAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR ON TUESDAY...WEST WINDS
TO 30 KTS AND POSSIBLY UP TO GALE FORCE OF 35 KTS WILL DEVELOP LATE
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT NORTHWEST AND STAY
UP TO 30 KTS INTO WEDNESDAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING TO LESS
THAN 25 KTS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK...POSSIBLY LEADING TO GALES TO 35
KTS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...TITUS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
346 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW WNW FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE UPR GREAT LKS BTWN UPR RDG EXTENDING FM TEXAS THRU THE
ROCKIES AND DEEPENING UPR TROF NEAR HUDSON BAY ENHANCED BY STRONG
SHRTWV DIGGING THRU NW ONTARIO THAT IS ACCOMPANIED BY 12HR H5 HGT
FALLS UP TO 130M. TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BTWN ASSOCIATED LO PRES NEAR
JAMES BAY AND HI PRES IN THE NRN PLAINS IS ALLOWING FOR GUSTY WNW
WINDS OVER UPR MI EARLY THIS AFTN. THE 12Z INL RAOB SHOWED WINDS
NEAR 40 KTS AT 3-4K FT AGL...AND SFC WIND GUSTS HAVE REACHED AOA 40
MPH OVER MUCH OF THE CWA WITH DAYTIME HEATING ALLOWING THE MIXING OF
THOSE HIER WINDS TO THE SFC. THE AIRMASS STREAMING INTO UPR MI IS A
DRY ONE... SO THERE HAVE ONLY BEEN SOME SCT DIURNAL CU/SC. BUT MORE
SC IS NOTED OVER ONTARIO CLOSER TO CORE OF COLDER AIR AT H85. LOOKING
WELL UPSTREAM...THERE IS A POTENT SHRTWV APRCHG THE PAC NW.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED ON WINDS INTO THIS
EVNG AND THEN ON TEMPS FOR SUN.
LATE TDAY/TNGT...WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING AND SLOW BUT
STEADY APRCH OF SFC HI PRES RDG FM THE W/DIMINISHING H925 WINDS...
THE GUSTY WNW WINDS THAT LINGER THRU THE AFTN WL DIMINISH. HIER
WAVES WHIPPED UP BY THE STRONG WINDS THIS AFTN AND IMPACTING AREAS
FM ONTONAGON THRU COPPER HARBOR AND E OF MARQUETTE MAY CAUSE SOME
MINOR BEACH EROSION ALONG THE LK SUP SHORE. SKIES SHOULD BE MOCLR...
BUT AS THE FLOW VEERS A BIT MORE TO THE NW OVER THE E AND ADVECTS
SOMEWHAT COLDER H85 AIR INTO THAT AREA...SOME OF THE BKN SC IN
ONTARIO MAY MOVE INTO THE ERN CWA. THIS CAD WL ALSO MAINTAIN GUSTY
WINDS OVER THE E FOR A BIT LONGER. A STEADY NW WIND THRU THE NGT WL
LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP DROP EVEN WHERE SKIES ARE CLR. EXPECT THE
LOWEST MIN TEMPS OVER THE INTERIOR W...WHERE WINDS WL BECOME LIGHTER
TOWARD DAYBREAK WITH THE CLOSER APRCH OF SFC HI PRES RDG.
SUN...HI PRES RDG CROSSING UPR MI WL BRING A MAINLY SUNNY DAY...
EXCEPT FOR SOME SCT DAYTIME CU OVER THE E CLOSER TO SLOWLY DEPARTING
H85 THERMAL TROF. STEADY NW WINDS OVER THE E IN THE MRNG WL DIMINISH
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE RDG. WITH H85 TEMPS REBOUNDING TO 10C OVER
THE W BY 00Z MON...MAX TEMPS SHOULD RISE INTO THE 50S AND PERHAPS
TOUCH 60 OVER THE W WHERE DVLPG SE FLOW WL DOWNSLOPE. MORE
PERSISTENT NW FLOW OFF THE CHILLY WATERS OF LK SUP WL KEEP THE E
COOLEST...AND TEMPS THERE NEAR LK SUP MAY BE HARD PRESSED TO REACH
50.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014
A 500MB RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE CWA AT 00Z MON...BUT WILL MOVE E BY
12Z MON AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NRN PLAINS ACCOMPANIED BY
A BROAD SFC LOW ACROSS MN. EXPECT SHOWERS /AND POSSIBLY SOME
THUNDERSTORMS/ ASSOCIATED WITH WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THE
LOW TO MOVE ACROSS THE WRN CWA SUN NIGHT IN MON MORNING...THEN
ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA MON MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL THEN SHIFT ACROSS THE CWA TUE INTO TUE NIGHT...WITH
INTENSIFICATION OF THE BROAD SFC LOW OCCURRING. EXACTLY WHEN/WHERE
THE BEST CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS IS UNCERTAIN DUE TO MODEL DISAGREEMENT
ON MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH. DESPITE
LACKING EXACT DETAILS...THE PRECIP FORECAST REMAINS SOMEWHAT MORE
CERTAIN. RAIN SHOWERS /AGAIN WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS/ SHOULD
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE MON EVENING THROUGH MON NIGHT...BUT THE
DRY SLOT WILL LEAD TO A DRIER FORECAST FOR TUE MORNING. WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE AND COOLER NWLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO LAKE ENHANCED RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS LATE TUE INTO THU AS 850MB TEMPS FALL AS LOW AS
-5C...ALTHOUGH A DIMINISHING TREND IN SHOWER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS TIME. MON AND TUE WILL SEE HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S
TO MID 50S...BUT WED WILL ONLY SEE HIGHS REACH THE LOW TO MID 40S.
WED NIGHT AND THU MORNING LOOK DRY FOR THE MOST PART AS A SFC RIDGE
SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA...BUT CLOUDS WILL COVER THE AREA DUE TO AMPLE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS WELL AS FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR.
POOR RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY FROM THE MODELS DOES NOT LEND MUCH
CONFIDENCE FOR THU THROUGH NEXT SAT AS THEY POINT TO A DEEPER TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...BRINGING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AOB
-10C. AS MENTIONED MODELS VARY FROM RUN TO RUN AND DISAGREE WITH
EACH OTHER ON ALL BUT THE VERY GENERAL PATTERN...AND EVEN AT THAT
THE TIMING OF WHEN AND FOR HOW LONG THE COLD AIR MOVES OVERHEAD IS
NOT AGREED ON. WILL HAVE CHANCES OF LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW THU
NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT. FOR SAT...MODELS WANT TO BRING A SFC HIGH INTO
THE AREA BUT WITH CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY. WILL KEEP POPS GOING INTO
SAT FOR LAKE EFFECT...BUT JUST SLIGHT CHANCE FOR NOW. HIGH TEMPS ON
FRI MAY NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 30S IN MANY LOCATIONS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 123 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014
EXPECT GUSTY WNW WINDS IN THE 30-40KT RANGE THIS AFTN UNDER SHARP
PRES GRADIENT BTWN HI PRES IN THE NRN PLAINS AND LO PRES NEAR JAMES
BAY TO DIMINISH A BIT TOWARD SUNSET WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING/
MIXING. THE STRONGEST WINDS WL OCCUR AT THE MORE EXPOSED CMX
LOCATION. THE WINDS WL DIMINISH FURTHER LATER TNGT/SUN MRNG WITH
CLOSER APRCH OF SFC HI PRES FM THE PLAINS/WEAKENING GRADIENT. VFR
CONDITIONS WL BE THE RULE AS THE INCOMING AIRMASS IS DRY.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014
AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY WEST TO EAST OVER
NORTHERN ONTARIO...SW TO W GALES OVER 35 KTS ARE EXPECTED INTO
THIS EVENING...MAINLY CENTRAL AND EAST LAKE SUPERIOR. NW WINDS OF 20
TO 30 KTS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING IN WAKE OF THE LOW AND
BEFORE SFC RIDGE CROSSES THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. AFTER A BRIEF
PERIOD WITH WINDS LESS THAN 20 KTS WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE...SE WINDS
INCREASE TO 30 KTS OVER MAINLY EAST LAKE SUPERIOR ON MONDAY AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. ONCE THIS LOW MOVES TO THE EAST
OF LAKE SUPERIOR ON TUESDAY...WEST WINDS TO 30 KTS AND POSSIBLY UP
TO GALE FORCE OF 35 KTS WILL DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT NORTHWEST AND STAY UP TO 30 KTS INTO
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 25 KTS BY
THURSDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LSZ251-267.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LSZ250-265-266.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...TITUS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
344 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014
SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE THE RETURN OF DEEPER
MOISTURE TONIGHT AND LOW CLOUDS/FOG DEVELOPMENT.
SEASONABLY STRONG 130-150KT UPPER LEVEL JETS WERE LOCATED OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. THESE FEATURES WERE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE H5 TROF OFF THE WEST COAST AND ATTENDANT 130M+
HEIGHT FALLS. IN ADDITION...THERE WAS A NEGATIVELY TILTED H5 TROF
NORTH OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. A BROAD H5 RIDGE WAS SITUATED OVER
THE ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. AT H85...THE THERMAL
RIDGE WAS OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE DEEP MOISTURE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILED ACROSS THE REGION WITH SUNSHINE AND MUCH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S/80S. RECORDS FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR ARE IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90...SO WELL BELOW THOSE
LEVELS.
WE HAD SOME DENSE FOG THAT DEVELOPED FROM ILLINOIS INTO
MISSOURI...AND SPREAD INTO SOUTHERN IOWA AND SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA...WHERE THE SURFACE DEWPOINTS WERE HIGH AHEAD OF THE
DRIER AIR.
AT 20Z...SURFACE DEWPOINTS VARIED FROM THE LOWER 30S IN THE NORTH
NEAR THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER TO THE MID 50S JUST SOUTH OF
BEATRICE. TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
INFLUENCE THE AREA WITH DRY AIR. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST
TO INCREASE AND H85 WINDS SHOULD BE AROUND 25 TO 35KTS. THE HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS DO NOT GO OUT FAR ENOUGH ON SUNDAY. THE
NAM/SREF ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAN THE
GFS. THE RAP IS SIMILIAR TO THE NAM AND IS STRONGER WITH THE
FORCING.
AS THE SURFACE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH...THERE WILL BE
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DEEPER MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS THAT WILL
FAVOR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. DO MENTION AREAS OF FOG IN THE
SOUTHWEST AND PATCHY FOG INTO THE CENTRAL ZONES/ THERE MAY BE SOME
SPRINKLES OR DRIZZLE AND DEPENDING ON HOW LONG THE LOW CLOUDS HANG
ON...WOULD AFFECT TEMPERATURES. THE MIXING FROM OMAHA NORTH AND
NORTHEAST IS MORE QUESTIONABLE...THUS HAVE HIGHS 70 TO 75 WITH
WARMER 75 TO 80 DEGREE TEMPS IN THE SOUTH FOR SUNDAY.
A COOL FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND THERE MAY BE SOME POST
FRONTAL SHOWERS MONDAY. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 60S AND 70S. BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014
THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS GENERALLY DRY. A WEAK FRONT PASSES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES FOR THE REST
OF THE EXTENDED. THE EC DOES BRING THE RIDGING EAST...HOWEVER THE
GFS IS SLOWER WITH THIS...THUS THE COOLER HIGHS IN THE 50S FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY COMPARED TO THE 60S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH FOG MAY OCCUR AFTER 10Z AT KLNK AS WARM AIR AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION OCCURS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN
NEBRASKA. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS ALSO LIKELY AT KOMA AFTER
26/1300Z.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
AVIATION...SMITH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
739 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY
WITH SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE AND MILDER TEMPERATURES. UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY WILL THEN DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION FROM CANADA TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY WITH A RENEWED THREAT OF SHOWERS AND HIGHER SUMMIT SNOW
SHOWERS. PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNING BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH GENERALLY DRY
WEATHER AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 721 AM EDT SATURDAY...MODEST ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER
THROUGH THE DAY BASED OFF LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS AND RAP 850 MB
RH PROGS. THIS WOULD SUGGEST MID CLOUDS CURRENTLY ACROSS
CENTRAL/WESTERN NY WILL OVERSPREAD OUR AREA A LITTLE FASTER THAN
PRIOR INDICATIONS. STILL LOOKING AT A FEW HOURS OF PARTIAL SUN
HOWEVER. HAVE A GREAT DAY. PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
PRIOR DISCUSSION...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TODAY AS DEFAULT SHORTWAVE RIDGING
SKIRTS QUICKLY THROUGH AND EAST OF THE REGION. THUS AT LEAST SOME
PARTIAL SUNSHINE THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS
UNDER LIGHT SOUTH WINDS. 925 MB THERMAL PROFILES AT 18 UTC AVERAGE
7 TO 10C OR SO...SO ADDING THE TYPICAL 7-8C FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS
DURING THE AUTUMNAL (OR VERNAL) SEASONAL PERIOD SUPPORTS HIGHS
RANGING FROM 55 TO 60 ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY. BY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING RATHER VIGOROUS
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING QUICKLY SOUTHEAST TOWARD
THE AREA WITH FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE PVA AND HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT. THUS
RUNNING IDEA OF INCREASING CLOUDS AND CHANCES OF SHOWERS STILL
APPEARS ON TRACK BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR NRN NY
COUNTIES...AND TOWARD EARLY EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN VT. THREAT
OF SHOWERS LOWER ACROSS SOUTHERN VT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SATURDAY...BY TONIGHT SCT/NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE AS SHORTWAVE AND UPPER ENERGY DROPS INTO THE REGION...ESP
ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTH. AS FLOW TRENDS WEST/NORTHWESTERLY ALOFT
LATER TONIGHT...FREEZING LEVELS WILL DROP TO AROUND 3000 FT OR SO
WITH PCPN MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO SNOW AT THE SUMMIT LEVEL OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW. LOWS FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S BELOW THE 2000
FT LEVEL. BEING OF CONTINENTAL ORIGIN...SYSTEM WILL HAVE ONLY
MODEST MOISTURE TO WORK WITH HOWEVER SO NOT LOOKING AT ANYTHING
PARTICULARLY HEAVY.
BY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH CYCLONIC WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT AND PLENTY OF CLOUDS. FLOW WILL BECOME BLOCKED OVER TIME SUCH
THAT SHOWER COVERAGE WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY CONFINED TO THE
NORTHERN MTNS WHERE SOME LIGHT ADDL SNOWFALL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
ABOVE 2500 FT OR SO. HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 7 TO 12 DEGREES
COOLER THAN TODAY...OR GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40.
BY MONDAY STILL GOOD CONSISTENCY AMONG THIS MORNING`S GLOBAL
SOLUTIONS IN SHOWING MODERATELY AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE RIDGING TO BEGIN
PUSHING EAST FROM THE CENTRAL STATES WITH RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND
DIMINISHING NORTHWESTERLY SFC FLOW. STILL SOME LINGERING/VRB
CLOUDS...ESP NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA WHERE A BRIEF
SPRINKLE WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE FIRST HALF THE DAY ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DRY ELSEWHERE. HIGHS A BLEND OF AVBL GUIDANCE
SUPPORTING VALUES FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S...OR WITHIN 2 DEG OF
LATE OCTOBER SEASONAL NORMS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 403 AM EDT SATURDAY...OVERALL IDEA FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD
REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING WITH THE
LATEST GFS AND ECMWF COMING INTO GOOD AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THE
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN.
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST SHIFTS OFFSHORE
AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS UPSTREAM OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES INCREASES SOUTHERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH 1000-500MB THICKNESSES RISING TO AROUND
565DM TUESDAY AFTERNOON. 850MB TEMPS RISE TO NEAR +11C SUPPORTING
HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S UNDER PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES. AS THE SURFACE LOW SHIFTS NORTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO
EAST OF JAMES BAY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...IT
INTENSIFIES AND A THERMALLY STRONG BUT MOISTURE LACKING COLD FRONT
TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION. UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH THE EXACT
TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY WITH ECMWF STILL A LITTLE BIT SLOWER THAN
THE GFS. BASED ON THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT BELIEVE THE ECMWF IS ON THE RIGHT PATH SO HAVE LEANED IN
THAT DIRECTIONS OFFERING A FROPA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF
WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS AND TEMPS FALLING SHARPLY THROUGH
THE DAY UNDER STRONG CAA.
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY
DRY WITH ZONAL TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT AS ANOTHER
UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. WE`LL RETURN TO MORE FALL-
LIKE TEMPS WITH THE 540DM THICKNESS LINE WELL SOUTH OF THE BTV
CWA AND DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S AND 50S AND LOWS IN THE 20S
AND 30S. THERE`S SOME UNCERTAINTY ON PRECIP PROBS FOR HALLOWEEN AT
THIS TIME AS THE GFS AND ECMWF HANDLE SAID TROUGH DIFFERENTLY.
HAVE TRENDED DRY FOR NOW...BUT THE JURY IS STILL OUT.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES WITH SOME SCT CIRRUS
THIS MORNING WILL TREND TOWARDS A BKN-OVC VFR DECK THIS AFTERNOON
AS A COLD FRONT SWINGS INTO THE REGION. KSLK IS CURRENTLY UNDER A
DENSE LIFR STRATUS DECK...WHICH WILL SLOWLY ERODE THROUGH THE NEXT
2 HOURS...LIFTING INTO A VFR DECK. A SHORT 1-3HR PERIOD OF
SHOWERS ACCOMPANIES THE FRONT AS IT MOVES WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
CWA...BUT EXPECT VSBY TO REMAIN VFR MAYBE BRIEFLY MVFR. CIGS WILL
LOWER AREA-WIDE TO MVFR DURING PRECIP AND BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
WINDS SHIFTING FROM THE SOUTH TO WEST- SOUTHWEST AFTER 00Z.
OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
12Z SUNDAY - 12Z MONDAY...A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR ASSOCIATED WITH A
SECOND ROUND OF VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
BEHIND AN EXITING FRONT ON NORTHWEST FLOW.
12Z MONDAY - 06Z WEDNESDAY...VFR UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.
06Z WEDNESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...VFR WITH SOME AREAS OF MVFR IN
RAIN SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
721 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY
WITH SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE AND MILDER TEMPERATURES. UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY WILL THEN DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION FROM CANADA TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY WITH A RENEWED THREAT OF SHOWERS AND HIGHER SUMMIT SNOW
SHOWERS. PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNING BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH GENERALLY DRY
WEATHER AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 721 AM EDT SATURDAY...MODEST ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER
THROUGH THE DAY BASED OFF LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS AND RAP 850 MB
RH PROGS. THIS WOULD SUGGEST MID CLOUDS CURRENTLY ACROSS
CENTRAL/WESTERN NY WILL OVERSPREAD OUR AREA A LITTLE FASTER THAN
PRIOR INDICATIONS. STILL LOOKING AT A FEW HOURS OF PARTIAL SUN
HOWEVER. HAVE A GREAT DAY. PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
PRIOR DISCUSSION...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TODAY AS DEFAULT SHORTWAVE RIDGING
SKIRTS QUICKLY THROUGH AND EAST OF THE REGION. THUS AT LEAST SOME
PARTIAL SUNSHINE THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS
UNDER LIGHT SOUTH WINDS. 925 MB THERMAL PROFILES AT 18 UTC AVERAGE
7 TO 10C OR SO...SO ADDING THE TYPICAL 7-8C FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS
DURING THE AUTUMNAL (OR VERNAL) SEASONAL PERIOD SUPPORTS HIGHS
RANGING FROM 55 TO 60 ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY. BY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING RATHER VIGOROUS
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING QUICKLY SOUTHEAST TOWARD
THE AREA WITH FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE PVA AND HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT. THUS
RUNNING IDEA OF INCREASING CLOUDS AND CHANCES OF SHOWERS STILL
APPEARS ON TRACK BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR NRN NY
COUNTIES...AND TOWARD EARLY EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN VT. THREAT
OF SHOWERS LOWER ACROSS SOUTHERN VT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SATURDAY...BY TONIGHT SCT/NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE AS SHORTWAVE AND UPPER ENERGY DROPS INTO THE REGION...ESP
ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTH. AS FLOW TRENDS WEST/NORTHWESTERLY ALOFT
LATER TONIGHT...FREEZING LEVELS WILL DROP TO AROUND 3000 FT OR SO
WITH PCPN MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO SNOW AT THE SUMMIT LEVEL OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW. LOWS FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S BELOW THE 2000
FT LEVEL. BEING OF CONTINENTAL ORIGIN...SYSTEM WILL HAVE ONLY
MODEST MOISTURE TO WORK WITH HOWEVER SO NOT LOOKING AT ANYTHING
PARTICULARLY HEAVY.
BY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH CYCLONIC WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT AND PLENTY OF CLOUDS. FLOW WILL BECOME BLOCKED OVER TIME SUCH
THAT SHOWER COVERAGE WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY CONFINED TO THE
NORTHERN MTNS WHERE SOME LIGHT ADDL SNOWFALL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
ABOVE 2500 FT OR SO. HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 7 TO 12 DEGREES
COOLER THAN TODAY...OR GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40.
BY MONDAY STILL GOOD CONSISTENCY AMONG THIS MORNING`S GLOBAL
SOLUTIONS IN SHOWING MODERATELY AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE RIDGING TO BEGIN
PUSHING EAST FROM THE CENTRAL STATES WITH RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND
DIMINISHING NORTHWESTERLY SFC FLOW. STILL SOME LINGERING/VRB
CLOUDS...ESP NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA WHERE A BRIEF
SPRINKLE WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE FIRST HALF THE DAY ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DRY ELSEWHERE. HIGHS A BLEND OF AVBL GUIDANCE
SUPPORTING VALUES FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S...OR WITHIN 2 DEG OF
LATE OCTOBER SEASONAL NORMS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 403 AM EDT SATURDAY...OVERALL IDEA FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD
REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING WITH THE
LATEST GFS AND ECMWF COMING INTO GOOD AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THE
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN.
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST SHIFTS OFFSHORE
AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS UPSTREAM OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES INCREASES SOUTHERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH 1000-500MB THICKNESSES RISING TO AROUND
565DM TUESDAY AFTERNOON. 850MB TEMPS RISE TO NEAR +11C SUPPORTING
HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S UNDER PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES. AS THE SURFACE LOW SHIFTS NORTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO
EAST OF JAMES BAY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...IT
INTENSIFIES AND A THERMALLY STRONG BUT MOISTURE LACKING COLD FRONT
TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION. UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH THE EXACT
TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY WITH ECMWF STILL A LITTLE BIT SLOWER THAN
THE GFS. BASED ON THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT BELIEVE THE ECMWF IS ON THE RIGHT PATH SO HAVE LEANED IN
THAT DIRECTIONS OFFERING A FROPA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF
WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS AND TEMPS FALLING SHARPLY THROUGH
THE DAY UNDER STRONG CAA.
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY
DRY WITH ZONAL TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT AS ANOTHER
UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. WE`LL RETURN TO MORE FALL-
LIKE TEMPS WITH THE 540DM THICKNESS LINE WELL SOUTH OF THE BTV
CWA AND DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S AND 50S AND LOWS IN THE 20S
AND 30S. THERE`S SOME UNCERTAINTY ON PRECIP PROBS FOR HALLOWEEN AT
THIS TIME AS THE GFS AND ECMWF HANDLE SAID TROUGH DIFFERENTLY.
HAVE TRENDED DRY FOR NOW...BUT THE JURY IS STILL OUT.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS UNDER SOME FEW-SCT CIRRUS WITH
IFR FOG AT KMPV/KSLK THROUGH 11-12Z. LOOKING UPSTREAM...MVFR CIGS
ARE PROGRESSING EASTWARD AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SWING
THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THESE CIGS TO SHIFT INTO
NORTHERN NEW YORK AFTER 14Z...BUT BREAK UP COMING INTO VERMONT
WHERE VFR WILL PREVAIL. A SHORT 3-HR PERIOD OF SHOWERS ACCOMPANIES
THE FRONT AS IT MOVES WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CWA...BUT EXPECT
VSBY TO REMAIN VFR MAYBE BRIEFLY MVFR. CIGS WILL LOWER AREA-WIDE
TO MVFR BEHIND THE FRONT WITH WINDS SHIFTING FROM THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST AFTER 00Z.
OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
06Z SUNDAY - 12Z MONDAY...A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR ASSOCIATED WITH A
SECOND ROUND OF VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
BEHIND AN EXITING FRONT ON NORTHWEST FLOW.
12Z MONDAY - 06Z WEDNESDAY...VFR UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.
06Z WEDNESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...VFR WITH SOME AREAS OF MVFR IN
RAIN SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
721 PM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
UNSEASONABLY WARM DAYTIME TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND AS
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 110 PM SUNDAY...STILL CRYSTAL CAROLINA BLUE SKIES THIS
AFTERNOON AND A NONDESCRIPT COLD FRONT NORTH OF THE REGION WILL
PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WILL ONLY A WEAK WIND SHIFT NOTED.
WITH THE THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THE HRRR 12 UTC IS SHOWING A
SEA-BREEZE DEVELOPING BUT REMAINING TRAPPED NEAR THE COAST MAINLY
FROM CAROLINA BEACH SOUTHWARD.
OVERNIGHT...WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVERHEAD...NO CLOUD
COVER...AND LIGHT WINDS THE REGION WILL HAVE AN EXCELLENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT. MINIMUM 2-METER TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH THE MIDDLE 40S TO NEAR 50 OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST MONDAY WITH SURFACE WINDS VEERING FROM NORTHEAST
TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON...THEN COMING AROUND TO THE
SOUTH ON TUESDAY. SEVERAL DAYS OF PERFECTLY CLEAR SKIES MAY
EVENTUALLY COME TO AN END WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS SOME THIN CIRRUS
SPREADS IN AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH. THE BIGGER STORY WILL
BE MUCH-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEK. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO AS HIGH AS +16C...ABOVE THE
90TH PERCENTILE FOR LATE OCTOBER AND LIKELY TO PUSH DAYTIME HIGHS
INTO THE LOWER 80S INLAND FROM THE COAST BOTH DAYS. NEAR THE
BEACHES A COOLER ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE RELATIVELY COOL OCEAN
WATERS SHOULD HOLD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S.
VERY DRY AIR UNDER THE HEART OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE MONDAY WILL
GET ENTRAINED INTO THE DAYTIME MIXED LAYER WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS
CRASHING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S...LOWEST ACROSS SE NORTH
CAROLINA. THIS WILL CREATE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE 20-30
PERCENT RANGE. FORTUNATELY LIGHT WINDS UNDER THE HIGH WILL
PRECLUDE THE FIRE WEATHER RISK FROM BECOMING TOO EXTREME.
MOISTURE RETURNING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE DEPARTING
HIGH WILL PUSH DEWPOINTS INTO THE 50S AND EVENTUALLY NEAR 60
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...THE LONG TERM IS SHAPING UP TO OFFER TWO OR
THREE DIFFERENT AIRMASSES. WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE ONE LAST DAY OF
UNSEASONABLE WARMTH AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT AND BERMUDA HIGH
PRESSURE THAT WILL BE LOSING GROUND. CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING FROM
WEST TO EAST ON WEDNESDAY WHICH MAY TEMPER THE WARMTH OVER WESTERN
ZONES BUT MOST PLACES SHOULD STILL EXCEED 80 DEGREES. RAIN CHANCES
THEN FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR THE FRONT, NOW FORECAST TO
ARRIVE EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY. THE SECOND AIRMASS DESCRIBED IN THE
FIST LINE WILL THEN BE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION AS THE FRONT SITS
JUST OFF THE COAST AND WAITS TO GET KICKED BY THE MAIN ENERGY MOVING
INTO THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO
CLIMO THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. ITS TOUGH TO SAY WHETHER OR NOT SOME
SMALL POPS ARE WARRANTED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST DURING THIS PART
OF THE SETUP. BY SATURDAY THIS ENERGY ALOFT CAPTURES THE RAPIDLY
DEEPENING LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND. THE ENTIRE SYSTEM CUTS OFF AND THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION SCREAMS INTO THE CAROLINAS. IT`S STILL TOO EARLY
TO SAY JUST HOW SUPERLATIVE THIS COLD AIR ADVECTION BECOMES. THE
GFS PUSHES 850MB TEMPS DOWN TO 1.5-4C (NORTH TO SOUTH) ACROSS THE
REGION. THE ECMWF IS NOW WEAKER THAN ITS PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS BUT
STILL PUSHES THE UNWELCOME 850MB 0C LINE SOUTH OF THE NC/SC STATE
BORDER. OUR CURRENT CHILLY SUNDAY FORECAST OF HIGHS JUST 60-65
APPEAR ON TRACK AT THIS TIME. WILL LOWER SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS HOWEVER
TO SHOW MID TO UPPER 30S AREA-WIDE.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...VFR WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE VALID
PERIOD. EXPECT CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE CAROLINAS. NO FOG ISSUES OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE
EXTREMELY DRY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES. AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OFF THE COAST BY MIDDAY MON...LIGHT/VRBL WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST
AOB 8 KT...HIGHEST AT KMYR/KCRE.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF EARLY MORNING MVFR/TEMPO IFR VSBYS TUE
THROUGH THU. SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE WED UNTIL EARLY FRI AS A COLD
FRONT STALLS OFF THE COAST. OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 110 PM SUNDAY...THE WINDS HAVE BACKED TO THE WEST AHEAD OF A
VERY WEAK COLD FRONT. CURRENTLY THE BUOYS ARE SHOWING WEST WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS...AND THE ONLY IMPACT OF THE FRONT WILL BE TO
VEER THE WINDS TO THE NORTH OVERNIGHT. THE WINDS SPEEDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE 10 KNOTS WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. SEAS ARE RUNNING
BETWEEN 1 AND 2.5 FEET THIS AFTERNOON AND THEY ARE EXPECTED TO
SETTLE OUT TO 0.5 TO 2.0 FEET OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS MONDAY MORNING...THEN OFFSHORE MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
LEAD TO VEERING WIND DIRECTIONS AND LIGHT WIND SPEEDS MONDAY...
WITH SOUTH WINDS INCREASING TO 10-12 KT BY TUESDAY EVENING. THE
LIGHT WIND SPEEDS AND LACK OF ANY CONSIDERABLE SWELL MEANS
COMBINED SEAS WILL AVERAGE ONLY 1-2 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...WEDNESDAY TO BRING THE LAST DAY OF QUIET WEATHER
WITH HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE AND A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS BOUNDARY WILL PUSH INTO AND THROUGH THE
WATERS THURSDAY MORNING WITH AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT BUT A LESS
DRAMATIC INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS OFTEN ACCOMPANIED BY SUCH
BOUNDARIES. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD
AND A COLD SURGE OF HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS IS STILL GOING TO BE
FORTHCOMING...BUT IT MAY END UP WAITING TIL THE END OF THE PERIOD OR
JUST BEYOND.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TRA
NEAR TERM...DRH
SHORT TERM...TRA
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...BJR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1128 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND THEN
SHIFT OFFSHORE. THIS WILL RESULT IN PROGRESSIVELY WARMER
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT LATE IN THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK
TO SEASONABLE LEVELS IF NOT BELOW NORMAL. THE ONLY CHANCE FOR
MEASURABLE RAINFALL WILL BE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1130 AM SATURDAY...ALOFT VERY DRY AIR HAS MOVED IN THE
REGION WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS BETWEEN 0.3 TO 0.4 INCH RANGE
WHICH IS WELL BELOW THE CLIMATOLOGICAL 25TH PERCENTILE VALUE AT
CHS AND GSO.
AT THE SURFACE A WEAK SEA BREEZE IS PROJECTED BY THE 13 UTC RUN OF
THE HRRR MAINLY SOUTH OF WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH AND EXTENDING TO THE
SOUTH SANTEE RIVER. THE SEA BREEZE IS ONLY EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND
10 TO 15 MILES BEFORE SUNSET.
WITH THE DRY AIR IN PLACE EXPECT THE HIGHS TODAY TO REBOUND
QUICKLY WITH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 70S EXCEPT FOR LOW
70S AT THE BEACHES WHICH ARE IMPACTED BY THE SEA BREEZE.
NOCTURNAL JETTING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS WINDS ABOVE
THE BOUNDARY LAYER INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT AND THIS WILL PREVENT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG. THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...
COINCIDENT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPSTREAM UPPER LEVEL FEATURE...
WILL ALLOW WINDS TO VEER FROM WSW TO W AND NW LATE TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...BEAUTIFUL WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED DURING
THIS PERIOD. MID- LEVEL FLOW WILL GRADUALLY FLATTEN DURING
SUNDAY...THEN EVOLVE TO A LONGWAVE RIDGE MONDAY WITH THE MID-LEVEL
HIGH CENTER MOVING TO JUST OFF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA. MOST OF
THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WHICH IS TYPICALLY
DRYING...AND WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH A SURFACE HIGH MOVING
OVERHEAD TO CREATE DRY AND PRETTY MUCH CLOUDLESS CONDITIONS. IN
ADDITION...AS THICKNESSES RISE AND HIGH PRESSURE SCOOTS
OFFSHORE...HIGH TEMPS WILL CLIMB TOWARDS 80 BOTH DAYS...WHICH IS
5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE DRY COLUMN AND WEAK GRADIENT WILL
ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AT NIGHT HOWEVER...SO LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL DROP TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS AROUND 50...WITH
MONDAY NIGHT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THANKS TO
DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...VERY WARM AND SUNNY THE FIRST HALF OF THE
EXTENDED...BUT A BIG AIR MASS CHANGE WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT
LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS FRONT MAY CAUSE SOME SHOWERS FOR HALLOWEEN.
500MB RIDGE ANCHORED OFF THE ATLANTIC FLORIDA COAST WILL EXTEND
NORTH THROUGH THE FULL LATITUDE OF THE CONUS...PRODUCING SW FLOW
ALOFT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND DRIVING HIGH THICKNESSES INTO THE
CAROLINAS. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST
THROUGH MID-WEEK AS WELL...AS A COLD FRONT DISPLACES IT FROM THE
WEST. TUE/WED WILL BOTH BE QUITE WARM...WITH HIGHS LIKELY REACHING
THE LOW 80S BOTH AFTNS...AND LOWS FALLING ONLY TO THE MID 50S/NEAR
60. ALTHOUGH MOIST ADVECTION WILL INCREASE TUE/WED...MID-LEVELS
REMAIN TOO DRY FOR ANY PRECIP.
STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES THURSDAY...AND MAY LINGER ACROSS THE
AREA ON FRIDAY THANKS TO AN AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGH DIVING
THROUGH THE MS VLY. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY INTO THE TIMING
OF THIS FEATURE...AS WELL AS ITS INTENSITY...BUT LATE THURSDAY INTO
EARLY FRIDAY DOES APPEAR TO SUPPORT A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
WILL RAISE POP TO LOW-CHC AS FORECAST PROFILES CONTINUE TO BECOME
MORE SATURATED...MATCHING THE EXTENDED MOS P-NUMBERS. AS THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH DRIFTS EAST ON FRIDAY...IT WILL CAUSE THE FRONT TO
STALL...OR MOVE VERY SLOWLY...SUCH THAT IT WILL BE A RACE TO SEE
IF THE DRY AIR CAN WORK BACK IN BEFORE HALLOWEEN EVENING
FESTIVITIES. ATTM IT LOOKS GOOD FOR HALLOWEEN...BUT THIS WILL HAVE
TO BE MONITORED SINCE THE TROUGH AXIS HANGING BACK TO THE WEST
COULD KEEP THE FRONT OVERHEAD THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
REGARDLESS OF WHERE THE FRONT IS ON FRIDAY...TEMPS WILL BE MUCH
COOLER...LIKELY FALLING TO BELOW CLIMO BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...DUE TO THE RATHER SHALLOW NATURE OF THE PATCHY GROUND
FOG THAT IS OCCURRING...FULL SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW FOR A RAPID
BURN-OFF AND VFR CONDITIONS BY 13Z. VFR IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
LIGHT N-NW WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY AFTER
MIDDAY...AOB 8 KT. KCRE/KMYR MAY SEE S-SW WINDS BY 17Z. JUST SCT
CIRRUS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. TOWARDS THIS EVENING SOME SCT MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THE FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT...WITH ONLY SCT LOW/MID CLOUDS AND A
WIND-SHIFT TO THE NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1130 AM SATURDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS AT 10 KNOTS ARE OCCURRING
LATE THIS MORNING OVER THE COAST WATERS. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO BACK TO THE WEST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN TO THE
SOUTHWEST AS A SEA- BREEZE DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON. PASSAGE OF A
SURFACE TROUGH WILL VEER WINDS BACK TO THE NW LATE TONIGHT.
NOCTURNAL JETTING WILL INCREASE WIND SPEEDS FROM 10 KT OR LESS
TODAY TO 10 TO 15 KT OVERNIGHT. ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OUTERMOST
WATERS...SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS MAY REACH 20 KT FOR A TIME
OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL BE 2 FT OR LESS INTO THIS EVE...BUILDING UP
TO 3 TO 4 FT OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY W/NW WINDS
EARLY SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE WATERS WILL PRODUCE
PRIMARILY LIGHT SPEEDS WITH DIRECTIONS VARYING THROUGH NEARLY THE
ENTIRE COMPASS. W/NW WINDS THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF SUNDAY WILL REACH
15 KTS BEHIND A WEAK FRONT MOVING AWAY FROM THE WATERS...BUT
THEREAFTER THE GRADIENT WILL EASE DUE TO THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
OVERHEAD. WINDS SPEEDS DROP TO 5-10 KTS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
SHORT TERM...AND THE DIRECTION WILL VEER FROM NW SUNDAY AFTN...TO NE
BY MONDAY MORNING...AND THEN FINALLY SW BY MONDAY NIGHT. HIGHEST
WAVE AMPLITUDES OCCUR EARLY SUNDAY WITH THE STRONGER WINDS...BUT
WILL STILL BE ONLY 2-3 FT THANKS TO THE OFFSHORE COMPONENT OF THE
WIND. SUNDAY EVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT EXPECT 1-2 FT SEAS...WITH
SEVERAL LOW-AMPLITUDE WAVE GROUPS COMPRISING THE SPECTRUM.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE AND AWAY FROM
THE COAST THROUGH MID-WEEK WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THIS PERIOD.
RETURN FLOW AROUND THIS HIGH KEEPS WINDS FROM THE SW TUE AND
WED...WITH THE RELATIVELY WEAK GRADIENT DRIVING WINDS ONLY TO AROUND
10 KTS. VERY LATE WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND A WIND
SHIFT TO THE NE MAY OCCUR BEFORE DAYBREAK THURSDAY...BUT SOME
UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS. ALTHOUGH THE FLOW WILL BE PERSISTENT FROM
THE SW...THE LIGHT SPEEDS WILL KEEP SEAS AT 1-3 FT BOTH DAYS EVEN AS
A SE GROUND SWELL AMPLIFIES.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HAWKINS/RJD
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...MRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
945 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND THEN
SHIFT OFFSHORE. THIS WILL RESULT IN PROGRESSIVELY WARMER
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT LATE IN THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK
TO SEASONABLE LEVELS IF NOT BELOW NORMAL. THE ONLY CHANCE FOR
MEASURABLE RAINFALL WILL BE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 AM SATURDAY...ALOFT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS SHIFTED OFF
THE COAST AND VERY DRY AIR HAS MOVED IN THE REGION WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATERS BETWEEN 0.3 TO 0.4 INCH RANGE WHICH IS WELL
BELOW THE CLIMATOLOGICAL 25TH PERCENTILE VALUE AT CHS AND GSO.
AT THE SURFACE A WEAK SEA BREEZE IS PROJECTED BY THE 11 UTC RUN
OF THE HRRR MAINLY BETWEEN WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH AND THE SOUTH SANTEE
RIVER. THE SEA BREEZE IS ONLY EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND 10 TO 15
MILES BEFORE SUNSET.
WITH THE DRY AIR IN PLACE EXPECT THE HIGHS TODAY TO REBOUND
QUICKLY WITH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 70S EXCEPT FOR LOW
70S AT THE BEACHES WHICH ARE IMPACTED BY THE SEA BREEZE.
NOCTURNAL JETTING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS WINDS ABOVE
THE BOUNDARY LAYER INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT AND THIS WILL PREVENT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG. THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...
COINCIDENT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPSTREAM UPPER LEVEL FEATURE...
WILL ALLOW WINDS TO VEER FROM WSW TO W AND NW LATE TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...BEAUTIFUL WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED DURING
THIS PERIOD. MID- LEVEL FLOW WILL GRADUALLY FLATTEN DURING
SUNDAY...THEN EVOLVE TO A LONGWAVE RIDGE MONDAY WITH THE MID-LEVEL
HIGH CENTER MOVING TO JUST OFF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA. MOST OF
THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WHICH IS TYPICALLY
DRYING...AND WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH A SURFACE HIGH MOVING
OVERHEAD TO CREATE DRY AND PRETTY MUCH CLOUDLESS CONDITIONS. IN
ADDITION...AS THICKNESSES RISE AND HIGH PRESSURE SCOOTS
OFFSHORE...HIGH TEMPS WILL CLIMB TOWARDS 80 BOTH DAYS...WHICH IS
5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE DRY COLUMN AND WEAK GRADIENT WILL
ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AT NIGHT HOWEVER...SO LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL DROP TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS AROUND 50...WITH
MONDAY NIGHT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THANKS TO
DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...VERY WARM AND SUNNY THE FIRST HALF OF THE
EXTENDED...BUT A BIG AIR MASS CHANGE WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT
LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS FRONT MAY CAUSE SOME SHOWERS FOR HALLOWEEN.
500MB RIDGE ANCHORED OFF THE ATLANTIC FLORIDA COAST WILL EXTEND
NORTH THROUGH THE FULL LATITUDE OF THE CONUS...PRODUCING SW FLOW
ALOFT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND DRIVING HIGH THICKNESSES INTO THE
CAROLINAS. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST
THROUGH MID-WEEK AS WELL...AS A COLD FRONT DISPLACES IT FROM THE
WEST. TUE/WED WILL BOTH BE QUITE WARM...WITH HIGHS LIKELY REACHING
THE LOW 80S BOTH AFTNS...AND LOWS FALLING ONLY TO THE MID 50S/NEAR
60. ALTHOUGH MOIST ADVECTION WILL INCREASE TUE/WED...MID-LEVELS
REMAIN TOO DRY FOR ANY PRECIP.
STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES THURSDAY...AND MAY LINGER ACROSS THE
AREA ON FRIDAY THANKS TO AN AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGH DIVING
THROUGH THE MS VLY. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY INTO THE TIMING
OF THIS FEATURE...AS WELL AS ITS INTENSITY...BUT LATE THURSDAY INTO
EARLY FRIDAY DOES APPEAR TO SUPPORT A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
WILL RAISE POP TO LOW-CHC AS FORECAST PROFILES CONTINUE TO BECOME
MORE SATURATED...MATCHING THE EXTENDED MOS P-NUMBERS. AS THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH DRIFTS EAST ON FRIDAY...IT WILL CAUSE THE FRONT TO
STALL...OR MOVE VERY SLOWLY...SUCH THAT IT WILL BE A RACE TO SEE
IF THE DRY AIR CAN WORK BACK IN BEFORE HALLOWEEN EVENING
FESTIVITIES. ATTM IT LOOKS GOOD FOR HALLOWEEN...BUT THIS WILL HAVE
TO BE MONITORED SINCE THE TROUGH AXIS HANGING BACK TO THE WEST
COULD KEEP THE FRONT OVERHEAD THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
REGARDLESS OF WHERE THE FRONT IS ON FRIDAY...TEMPS WILL BE MUCH
COOLER...LIKELY FALLING TO BELOW CLIMO BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...DUE TO THE RATHER SHALLOW NATURE OF THE PATCHY GROUND
FOG THAT IS OCCURRING...FULL SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW FOR A RAPID
BURN-OFF AND VFR CONDITIONS BY 13Z. VFR IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
LIGHT N-NW WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY AFTER
MIDDAY...AOB 8 KT. KCRE/KMYR MAY SEE S-SW WINDS BY 17Z. JUST SCT
CIRRUS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. TOWARDS THIS EVENING SOME SCT MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THE FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT...WITH ONLY SCT LOW/MID CLOUDS AND A
WIND-SHIFT TO THE NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 AM SATURDAY...WEST TO NORTH WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS ARE
OCCURRING THIS MORNING OVER THE COAST WATERS. THESE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BACK TO THE WEST LATER THIS MORNING AND THEN TO THE
SOUTHWEST AS A SEA-BREEZE DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON. PASSAGE OF A
SURFACE TROUGH WILL VEER WINDS BACK TO THE NW LATE TONIGHT.
NOCTURNAL JETTING WILL INCREASE WIND SPEEDS FROM 10 KT OR LESS
TODAY TO 10 TO 15 KT OVERNIGHT. ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OUTERMOST
WATERS...SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS MAY REACH 20 KT FOR A TIME
OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL BE 2 FT OR LESS INTO THIS EVE...BUILDING UP
TO 3 TO 4 FT OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY W/NW WINDS
EARLY SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE WATERS WILL PRODUCE
PRIMARILY LIGHT SPEEDS WITH DIRECTIONS VARYING THROUGH NEARLY THE
ENTIRE COMPASS. W/NW WINDS THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF SUNDAY WILL REACH
15 KTS BEHIND A WEAK FRONT MOVING AWAY FROM THE WATERS...BUT
THEREAFTER THE GRADIENT WILL EASE DUE TO THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
OVERHEAD. WINDS SPEEDS DROP TO 5-10 KTS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
SHORT TERM...AND THE DIRECTION WILL VEER FROM NW SUNDAY AFTN...TO NE
BY MONDAY MORNING...AND THEN FINALLY SW BY MONDAY NIGHT. HIGHEST
WAVE AMPLITUDES OCCUR EARLY SUNDAY WITH THE STRONGER WINDS...BUT
WILL STILL BE ONLY 2-3 FT THANKS TO THE OFFSHORE COMPONENT OF THE
WIND. SUNDAY EVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT EXPECT 1-2 FT SEAS...WITH
SEVERAL LOW-AMPLITUDE WAVE GROUPS COMPRISING THE SPECTRUM.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE AND AWAY FROM
THE COAST THROUGH MID-WEEK WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THIS PERIOD.
RETURN FLOW AROUND THIS HIGH KEEPS WINDS FROM THE SW TUE AND
WED...WITH THE RELATIVELY WEAK GRADIENT DRIVING WINDS ONLY TO AROUND
10 KTS. VERY LATE WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND A WIND
SHIFT TO THE NE MAY OCCUR BEFORE DAYBREAK THURSDAY...BUT SOME
UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS. ALTHOUGH THE FLOW WILL BE PERSISTENT FROM
THE SW...THE LIGHT SPEEDS WILL KEEP SEAS AT 1-3 FT BOTH DAYS EVEN AS
A SE GROUND SWELL AMPLIFIES.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HAWKINS/RJD
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...MRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND OR
306 PM PDT SAT OCT 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING NORTHEASTWARD INTO
WESTERN WASHINGTON WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
A SHOWERY AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA TONIGHT AND LAST INTO
SUNDAY. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN TO THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH ADDITIONAL WET PERIODS LIKELY TOWARDS THE END
OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...BUOY 89 AND BUOY 29 HAVE BOTTOMED OUT IN THE 983 TO
984 MB RANGE AS A LOW PRESSURE MOVED BETWEEN THEM. THIS LOW PRESSURE
IS CURRENTLY ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR GRAYS HARBOR WASHINGTON.
PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE BEGINNING TO OPEN UP ACROSS THE REGION WITH
WIDESPREAD 50 TO 65 MPH WINDS ACTIVELY OCCURRING ACROSS OUR COASTAL
COMMUNITIES WITH UP TO 80 TO 90 MPH WIND GUSTS REPORTED AT THE MOST
EXPOSED BEACHES AND HEADLANDS. WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 55 MPH
HAVE BEEN REPORTED ACROSS THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY IN THE LAST TWO
HOURS.
THERE HAVE BEEN A NUMBER OF REPORTS OF POWER LINES AND TREES DOWN
ACROSS THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN
WHETHER OR NOT 60 MPH GUSTS WILL SURFACE...BUT GIVEN THE IMPACTS OF
CURRENT WINDS...WILL KEEP HIGH WIND WARNINGS GOING EVEN IF CRITERIA
BY PURE WIND SPEEDS IS NOT MET. WITH THAT SAID...SOUTH TO NORTH
PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE QUICKLY INCREASING AND ARE CURRENTLY 20MB
BETWEEN KBOK-KAST...15MB BETWEEN KMFR-KAST...AND 4MB BETWEEN
KEUG-KPDX. RAP GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE KEUG-KPDX GRADIENT WILL INCREASE
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS TO NEAR 10MB. WHEN COMBINED WITH A
DESTABILIZING LOWER ATMOSPHERE...THIS SHOULD HELP HIGHER WINDS ALOFT
SURFACE ACROSS THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
EXPECT BREEZY WEATHER FOR THE REGION WELL INTO THIS EVENING...BUT THE
HIGHEST WINDS SHOULD BE OVER BETWEEN 5 PM AND 7 PM FOR THE WILLAMETTE
VALLEY.
IN ADDITION...THE BENT BACK OCCLUSION MAY BRING A STRONG WEST TO
NORTHWEST SURGE OF WINDS TO THE SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST...WILLAPA
HILLS AND LOWER COLUMBIA RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING SO HIGH WIND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR A FEW HOURS LONGER IN
THESE LOCATIONS VERSUS LOCATIONS FARTHER SOUTH.
VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE REST OF THE
FORECAST DUE TO THE FOCUS ON THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM. MUCH COOLER
AND SHOWERY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY...LIKELY BRINGING 1 TO
3 INCHES OF SNOW TO THE HIGH COUNTRY ABOVE 4500 TO 5000
FEET...PERHAPS A BIT HIGHER ABOVE 6000 FT. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN
THE WET WEATHER MONDAY...A FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN TO
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY LESS
WITH THIS SYSTEM THAN WITH THE CURRENT SYSTEM...AND THE FRONT
APPEARS AS THOUGH IT WILL BE TRANSIENT ENOUGH THAT FLOOD CONCERNS
WITH THIS SYSTEM APPEAR MINIMAL. /NEUMAN
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE THIS WEEK. SHORTWAVES IN THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING THE CHANCE FOR RAIN
ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THERE
WILL BE A COUPLE WEAK FRONTS...ONE WHICH MOVES ONSHORE TUESDAY AND A
SECOND THAT MOVES ONSHORE LATE THIS WEEK. THESE WILL BRING THE BEST
CHANCE FOR MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS...WITH MAINLY LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED
INTERMITTENTLY BEHIND THE FIRST FRONT ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE
SECOND FRONT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE AROUND FRIDAY. -MCCOY
&&
.AVIATION...A DEEP LOW PRES IS ABOUT 50 MILES OFF THE OREGON
COAST WILL PUSH INLAND OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON BY 5 PM TODAY.
STRONG S TO SW WINDS THROUGH 03Z. MOSTLY VFR...BUT WILL HAVE
POCKETS OF MVFR UNDER SHOWERS. EXPECT ISOLATED TSTMS...MAINLY FROM
COAST RANGE AND WESTWARD. CONDITIONS RELAX AFTER 03Z...WITH
WIDESPREAD LOW VFR AND MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING. MOSTLY VFR...BUT WILL HAVE OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS AT TIMES.
GUSTY S WINDS WITH GUSTS 35 TO 45 KT CONTINUE UNTIL 02Z...THEN
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY RELAX. ROCKEY.
&&
.MARINE...A 983 MB LOW ABOUT 50 MILES WEST OF ASTORIA WILL MOVE
ONSHORE JUST NORTH OF WILLAPA BAY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. STORM
WARNING IN EFFECT...WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. WINDS WILL DROP OFF AFTER
6 PM...WITH GALES THROUGH EVENING. WINDS EASE FURTHER OVERNIGHT.
WIND GENERATED SEAS HAVE BUILD RAPIDLY. SEAS PEAKED AT 30 FT AT
BUOY 50 AROUND NOON...AND ARE STILL 25 TO 30 FT ON OREGON WATERS
WITH SEAS 20 TO 25 FT FURTHER N. AS WINDS DROP OFF...SEAS WILL
RELAX. SEAS LIKELY TO DROP BACK TO AROUND 15 FT AROUND MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT...AND DOWN A BIT FURTHER FOR SUN.ROCKEY.
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM TODAY FOR WILLAMETTE VALLEY.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM TODAY FOR LOWER COLUMBIA.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 PM TODAY FOR ALL OF THE COAST
AND COAST RANGE.
WA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM TODAY FOR CLARK COUNTY.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR I-5
CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY...THE WILLAPA HILLS AND
THE SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST.
PZ...STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM TODAY ON ALL COASTAL WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR CONDITIONS
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
$$
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND OR
910 AM PDT SAT OCT 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL MOVE N UP THE OREGON COAST TODAY
THEN MOVE INLAND OVER SW WA TOWARDS PUGET SOUND THIS EVENING
BRINGING WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW THE LOW TURNING THE FLOW ONSHORE TONIGHT
AND SUN AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS. WEAK HIGH PRES WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUN NIGHT...THEN ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
MOVE IN MON AND TUE AS A LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVES INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA.
&&
.MORNING UPDATE...THE MAIN CHANGE THIS MORNING WAS TO EXPAND HIGH
WIND WARNING COVERAGE INTO THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST RANGE...WILLAPA
HILLS AND THE ENTIRE WILLAMETTE VALLEY...AND MOVE UP THE STARTING
TIME OF EXISTING HIGH WIND WARNINGS ALONG THE OREGON COAST.
A LOW PRESSURE SOMEWHERE IN THE UPPER 980S MB RANGE IS SLIDING NORTH
NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST WHERE IT IS APPROXIMATELY
75 TO 100 MILES OFFSHORE. WINDS HAVE BEEN BLASTING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
OREGON COAST AND HIGHER LOCATIONS ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHWEST OREGON. A
NUMBER OF STATIONS IN THIS GENERAL REGION HAVE REPORTED GUSTS BETWEEN
60 AND 100 MPH SO FAR. WHILE SOME OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THE
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY FILL FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...THE RAP
ACTUALLY HOLDS THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW PRESSURE STEADY FOR THE NEXT
6 TO 8 HOURS...EVEN DEEPENING IT SLIGHTLY TO 987MB BEFORE IT MAKES
LANDFALL SOMEWHERE AROUND PACIFIC OR GRAYS HARBOR COUNTIES IN
WASHINGTON THIS AFTERNOON. THE RAP ALSO PEAKS THE KPDX TO KEUG
PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND 10 MB AND IS JUST OVER 20 MB BETWEEN KAST
AND KBOK THIS AFTERNOON. THE RAP ALSO SUGGESTS A 3 HOUR PRESSURE
RISE OF GREATER THAN 9 MB PUSHING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COUPLED WITH AN
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS NORTHWEST OREGON
TODAY...HIGH WINDS ALOFT SHOULD HAVE AN EASIER TIME MIXING DOWN TO
THE SURFACE.
WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH FOR CENTRAL OREGON COASTAL COMMUNITIES AND 75 TO
80 MPH GUSTS ALONG BEACHES AND HEADLANDS SHOULD BEGIN SHORTLY AS THE
LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHWESTWARD OF THESE LOCATIONS. WINDS WILL BE
SLOWER TO START ALONG THE NORTH OREGON COAST...BUT SHOULD BEGIN
AROUND MIDDAY. FURTHER INLAND ACROSS THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY...WIND
GUSTS OF 40 TO 55 MPH APPEAR LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 60
MPH CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. THE HIGHEST WINDS APPEAR MOST LIKELY TO
IMPACT THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY BETWEEN 1 PM AND 5 PM. IT WILL CERTAINLY
REMAIN BREEZY AFTER THIS TIME FRAME...BUT THAT IS THE TIME OF
HIGHEST CONCERN RIGHT NOW. GIVEN FOLIAGE...THE GROUND IS RELATIVELY
SATURATED...AND THE AFOREMENTIONED METEOROLOGICAL FACTORS...OPTED TO
ISSUE A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR ALL THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY WHERE POWER
OUTAGES AND DOWN TREE POTENTIAL APPEARS HIGHER THAN WE HAVE SEEN IN
QUITE SOME TIME DESPITE SOME UNCERTAINTY IN EXACT WIND SPEEDS.
GIVEN THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW REMAINS UNCERTAIN...WILL KEEP THE
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT GOING FOR THE SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST...AND
THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE LOWER COLUMBIA INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR ZONES.
HOWEVER...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL CERTAINLY EXISTS FOR THESE ZONES THIS
AFTERNOON SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS AND MODEL DATA IN
CASE WARNINGS APPEAR NECESSARY FOR THESE LOCATIONS.
THE MENTION OF THUNDER WAS ALSO EXPANDED INTO INTERIOR LOCATIONS FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL MONITOR RADAR CLOSELY FOR ANY
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS THAT WARRANT SHORT FUSED WARNINGS. /NEUMAN
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
.SHORT TERM...SURFACE LOW WAS SEEN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY NEAR 40N
129W AT 08Z MOVING NE. BUOY 46002 SHOWED A PRES OF 990 MB N OF THE
LOW...SUGGESTING A CENTRAL PRES AT LEAST A FEW MB BELOW 990. OVERALL
PREFER THE ECMWF FOR PLACEMENT AND PRES...ALTHOUGH MODELS HAVE COME
AROUND TO A MUCH MORE COHESIVE PICTURE OF LOW. A SOUTHERLY JET ALONG
THE E SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH SUGGESTS A TURN TO THE N FOR THE LOW
TODAY...WHICH MODELS NOW UNIFORMLY BRING UP JUST OFF THE OREGON
COAST TODAY WHILE BEGINNING TO FILL. THERE IS A LITTLE SPREAD IN
WHERE THE MODELS BRING THE LOW INLAND...BUT CONSENSUS SEEMS TO
SUGGEST THE LOW MAKING LANDFALL ON THE S WA COAST BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z
TODAY BEFORE HEADING TOWARDS THE S PUGET SOUND AREA. WITH SURFACE
PRES GRADIENTS GENERALLY DEPICTED AROUND 14 TO 16 MB DOWN THE OREGON
COAST AS THE LOW MOVES INLAND...WILL POST HIGH WIND WARNINGS FOR THE
CENTRAL AND N OREGON COAST AND THE N OREGON COAST RANGE. S WA COAST
IS A LITTLE IFFY BASED ON THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE EXACT TRACK OF THE
LOW. WITH THE BEST GUESS FOR THE LOW MOVING INLAND OVER PACIFIC
COUNTY WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WARNINGS FOR THE S WA COAST AND WILLAPA
HILLS...ALTHOUGH IT MAY ULTIMATELY REQUIRE A WARNING LATER TODAY. A
THE TRACK OF THE LOW EXPECTED ACROSS THE S SOUND SUGGESTS WINDY
CONDITIONS EXTENDING INTO THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND I-5 CORRIDOR
LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. MODELS INDICATING ABOUT A 6 MB PRES
GRADIENT BETWEEN KEUG AND KPDX AS THE LOW PASSES BY TO THE
N..PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH FOR A HIGH WIND WARNING BUT GUSTS TO 50 MPH
NONETHELESS. OVERALL THE PEAK WINDS TODAY AND THIS EVENING EXPECTED
TO BE RELATIVELY QUICK TO PASS AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH QUICKLY AND
COLD FRONT FOLLOWS QUICKLY.
LIGHTING INDICATED ON LIGHTNING DETECTION NETWORKS TO THE N OF THE
LOW EARLY THIS MORNING OFFSHORE. WILL ADD A MENTION OF THUNDER TO
THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY AS THE LOW LIFTS N...AND INCLUDE A SLIGHT
CHANCE IN SW WA LATE TODAY. WITH THE WARM FRONT ALREADY N AND THE
LOW PASSING BY TO THE N...RAINFALL IS NOT A COMPLETE GIMMIE
TODAY...ESP POINTS FURTHER INLAND. BETTER POPS WILL COME TONIGHT IN
THE WESTERLY ONSHORE FLOW FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT AS THE COLDER AIR
ALOFT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH DESTABILIZES THE ATMOSPHERE AND
OROGRAPHICS ADD LIFT TO THE WINDWARD MOUNTAINS. THE COOLER AIR
FOLLOWING THE FRONT EXPECTED TO DROP SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO AROUND 4500
FT BY SUN MORNING...IN TIME TO EXPECT AT LEAST A FEW INCHES OF SNOW
FOR THE PASSES IN THE OROGRAPHIC SHOWERS.
A WEAK RIDGE SUN NIGHT WILL BRING A SLOW END TO THE SHOWERS AS WELL
AS SOME COOLER TEMPS. THE NEXT SYSTEM THOUGH...THIS ONE TRACKING E
ACROSS THE N PACIFIC TOWARDS BC...WILL BRING THE NEXT THREAT OF RAIN
TO THE N PART OF THE FORECAST AREA MON IN AN AREA OF MOIST WARM AIR
ADVECTION.
.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. THE LONG TERM
STARTS OUT WET WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA
MON NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM CONTAINS THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ANA...THAT
SKIRTED HAWAII LAST WEEK. MODELS MAY BE UNDER DOING THE POTENTIAL
WITH THIS ONE. A STRONG JET STREAM WILL REMAIN DIRECTED AT WA AND
NRN OREGON THROUGH TUE NIGHT. MODELS SHOW LARGE VARIATIONS BEGINNING
WED...BUT EXPECT THE ACTIVE PATTERN TO CONTINUE. THE ECMWF AND GFS
SHOW A TREND TOWARD DRIER CONDITIONS LATE NEXT WEEK AS A DEEP LOW IN
THE GULF OF ALASKA AMPLIFIES THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. WEISHAAR
&&
.AVIATION...LOW PRES OFF THE OREGON COAST WILL PUSH NE TODAY AND
THEN INLAND OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON LATER THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG S
TO SW WINDS ALOFT TODAY...WITH GUSTY S TO SW WINDS DOWN TO GROUND
THROUGH 03Z. STRONGEST WINDS 20Z TO 01Z. MOSTLY VFR...BUT WILL
HAVE POCKETS OF MVFR UNDER SHOWERS. EXPECT ISOLATED TSTMS...MAINLY
FROM COAST RANGE AND WESTWARD. CONDITIONS RELAX AFTER 03Z...WITH
CONSIDERABLE LOW VFR AND MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL INCREASE THIS AM...
AND CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. MOSTLY VFR...BUT WILL HAVE
OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS AT TIMES. WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHERLY AND GUSTY
AFTER 17Z...WITH STRONGEST WINDS BETWEEN 21Z AND 02Z WHEN GUSTS
MAY REACH 40 KT AT TIMES. ROCKEY.
&&
.MARINE...A 985 MB LOW IS NOW ABOUT 200 MILES WEST OF NORTH
BEND AND IS MOVING THE NORTHEAST. LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE
JUST NORTH OF WILLAPA BAY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SOLID SOUTHERLY
GALES ON THE WATERS TODAY. STRONGEST WINDS IN 2 TO 5 PM PERIOD AT
WHICH TIME MAY HAVE BRIEF COASTAL JET DEVELOPMENT. WINDS WILL TURN
WEST TO SOUTHWEST AND EASE THIS EVENING.
SEAS GENERALLY 10 TO 12 FT THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD BUILD QUICKLY
LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. BUOY OFF PORT ORFORD NOW AT
27 FT...SO GIVE MORE CONFIDENCE IN BOOSTING WAVE HEIGHTS ON OREGON
COASTAL WATERS FOR TODAY. WILL SEE PEAK OUT NEAR 20 FT FROM ABOUT
TILLAMOOK SOUTHWARD...AND 15 TO 18 FT FURTHER TO THE N. SEAS WILL
SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AS WINDS DROP. ROCKEY.
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM TODAY FOR WILLAMETTE VALLEY.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 PM TODAY FOR ALL OF THE COAST AND
COAST RANGE.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM TODAY
FOR LOWER COLUMBIA.
WA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM TODAY FOR CLARK COUNTY.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM TODAY FOR WILLAPA HILLS.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM TODAY FOR I-5
CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY.
PZ...GALE WARNING TODAY ON ALL CENTRAL OREGON COASTAL WATERS...
OR FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE AND OUT 60 NM.
GALE WARNING TODAY AND THIS EVENING ON S WASH/N ORE
COASTAL WATERS...OR FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO CASCADE HEAD
AND OUT 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR
CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
&&
$$
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1230 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2014
.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.
&&
.AVIATION...
Main decision for tonight is whether there will be IFR fog again
this morning. Surface data indicates that dwpnts are lower (T/Td
spreads are greater) and there is less dew now than at this time
last night. HRRR model does show high RH/s toward 12Z, but not as
impressive as last nights. NAM BUFR soundings are more supportive
of IFR CIGS around 003FT, possibly as early as 10Z. As such have
opted to play the CIG card moreso than FG. Mstr will burn of quickly
before 15Z with winds on the light side.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
http://facebook.com/NWSMidland
http://twitter.com/NWSMidland
Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland
FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)
YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
609 PM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014
FORECAST FOCUS IS ON THE RAIN CHANCES FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUE...WITH A VARIETY OF WEATHER ELEMENTS PLAYING A ROLL IN WHERE AND
WHEN.
TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT RAMPS UP...WITH A 40 KT 850
MB JET NOSING INTO WESTERN WI BY 06Z...TRANSITIONING NORTHEAST BY
12Z. LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION LEADS ITS PARENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...925-850 MB MAX AROUND 06Z.
SOME NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST RUNNING FRONTOGENETIC RESPONSE ALONG 900
MB...IN THE VICINITY OF THE NOSE OF THE JET AND LOW LEVEL WARM PUSH.
THIS TOO IS MAXED AT 06Z. GFS/NAM MUCAPES SUGGEST 500+ J/KG OF
MUCAPE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT FOR THE LOCAL AREA. THERE WOULD SEEM TO BE
PLENTY OF LIFT AND INSTABILITY TO WARRANT AREAS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...DEPTH OF MOISTURE MIGHT PAINT A DIFFERENT
PICTURE.
LOOKING AT A SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST RUNNING X-SECTION DEPICTS A
SHALLOW INCREASE IN SATURATION TONIGHT...HOLDING UNDER 700 MB UNTIL
YOU WORK INTO NORTHERN/NORTHEAST WI. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS HAVE THIS
SATURATION UNDER AN APPRECIABLE INVERSION...WITH OMEGA CO-LOCATED IN
THE MOISTURE. HOWEVER...THE INSTABILITY IS ABOVE THE INVERSION...AND
THE CLOUD LAYER MIGHT NOT BE ABLE TO TAP THIS SOURCE OF LIFT AS A
RESULT - AT LEAST FOR PARTS OF THE AREA. IN FACT...MOST OF THE
SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE AREA SUGGEST DRIZZLE WOULD BE THE PCPN TYPE.
DEEPER CLOUD LAYER AND GREATER POTENTIAL TO RESOURCE THE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY LIES TO THE NORTHEAST...GENERALLY I-94 AND EAST/NORTH.
THINK THE SCENARIO WILL PLAY OUT WITH A 2-4 HOUR WIND OF A
SHOWER/STORM THREAT...ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET...WITH
GREATER PROBABILITIES OF DRIZZLE POST THE CONVECTIVE BAND. WILL
STICK WITH SHOWER MENTION FOR ALL PCPN CHANCES FOR SIMPLICITY.
THE SYSTEM/S SFC COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY...WITH
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH BUSTING INTO
WESTERN MN BY 00Z. RIBBON OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT RUNS ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT...PARALLEL TO ITS ORIENTATION...WITH UP TO
500 J/KG OF MUCAPE DEVELOPING JUST SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. ANTICIPATE
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT...WITH
THE BEST CHANCES JUST SOUTH/EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA.
TO THE NORTH...SFC LOW CONGEALS INTO ONE MAIN CENTER AS IT LIFTS
INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA. WESTWARD HANGING SFC TROUGH OFF THE LOW LOOKS
TO HOLD ACROSS NORTHERN MN/SOUTHERN CANADA. BITS OF UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY WILL SPIN AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL/TROUGH. EXPECT SOME PCPN
RESPONSE FROM THESE PIECES OF ENERGY AND THE SFC TROUGH. RH FIELDS
HOLD THE DEEPER SATURATION TO THE NORTH...WITH THE DEEPER LIFT.
WHILE THE MOST FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR PCPN WILL LIE NORTH AND THEN
SOUTH WITH THE FRONT...ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY AND WHERE VARIOUS BITS OF
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND WHERE THE SFC FRONT WILL BY AT XX TIME THAT
SMALL CHANCES ARE WARRANTED FOR MOST OF THE AREA MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT
/GREATER SOUTH-NORTH/.
MEANWHILE...ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE INDICATED ON THE 295 F SFC FOR THE
BETTER PART OF MON MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...CO-LOCATED WITH THE LOW
SATURATION. SIGNAL STILL FAVORS DRIZZLE. HAVE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES
IN THE I-94 CORRIDOR AS A RESULT. AGAIN...KEEPING PTYPE AS SHOWERS
FOR SIMPLICITY. THAT SAID...THIS COULD UNFOLD INTO AN AREAS OF
DRIZZLE - LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION - TYPE SCENARIO.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014
GFS/ECMWF/GEM ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SLIDING AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AFTER 06Z FRI.
WHILE TIMING WITH THE VARIOUS MODELS ARE COMPARABLE...THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES WITH HOW FAR WEST THE MAIN PIECE OF ENERGY WILL BE. THE
GEM AND GFS CURRENTLY FAVOR TRACKING THE SHORTWAVE INTO MICH...WHICH
WOULD KEEP THE BULK OF ANY RESULTING PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE 00Z EC WAS A BIT FARTHER WEST...AND THUS BRINGS A
SWATH OF PCPN INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER...12Z CAME IN WITH A SOLUTION
MORE LIKE THE GEM/GFS. MODELS HAVE BOUNCED AROUND A BIT WITHIN
THEMSELVES...NOT LENDING A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN WHETHER THE WEST OR
EASTERN SOLUTION IS BETTER. WILL STICK WITH CONSENSUS SOLUTION FOR
NOW.
COLDER AIR RETURNS MID WEEK AND WILL STICK AROUND INTO THE WEEKEND
AS THE REGION COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
EXPECTING AT OR BELOW NORMALS TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 609 PM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014
LEADING EDGE OF THE ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE HAS RESULTED IN SOME VFR
CEILINGS DEVELOPING WITH SOME SHOWERS/STORMS OVER WESTERN
WISCONSIN. EXPECT THAT THESE SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
REMAIN EAST OF THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING AS THE ISENTROPIC UP
GLIDE CONTINUES TO ADVANCE NORTHEAST. THE FORCING WILL INCREASE
OVERNIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS SHORT
WAVE TROUGH...BUT AGAIN EXPECT THAT MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
OVER WISCONSIN WHERE THE BETTER ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE WILL RESIDE.
THE 26.20Z HRRR SUGGESTS SOME OF THESE SHOWERS COULD BE CLOSE TO
KLSE SO WILL INCLUDE A VCSH STARTING AROUND 06Z. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SOME PRECIPITATION MAY COME LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
AS A SURFACE LOW APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH. IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW...THERE SHOULD BE 1 TO 2 UBAR/S OF
UP GLIDE ON THE 300K SURFACE. WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW...EXPECT TO SEE THE CEILINGS RAPIDLY COME
DOWN TO MVFR AND THEN IFR WITH SOME DRIZZLE AS WELL. THE VERTICAL
MOTION LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE STRONGER AND LAST LONGER AT KLSE SO
HAVE GONE WITH CATEGORICAL DRIZZLE. KRST MAY SEE SOME DRIZZLE AS
WELL...BUT A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAINTY THERE DUE TO WEAKER LIFT
SIGNAL. THE WINDS SHOULD COME AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST IN THE
AFTERNOON ONCE THE SURFACE LOW GOES BY AND THIS WILL SHUT OFF THE
LIFT TO END THE DRIZZLE AND ALLOW THE CEILINGS TO GO BACK UP TO
MVFR OR VFR.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
325 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 217 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014
DISSIPATION OF FOG AND CLOUD TRENDS THE PRIMARY FOCUS TODAY.
BEYOND THIS ATTENTION TURNS TO TEMPERATURES.
07Z NEPHANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.
AHEAD OF IT...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG CONTINUE...WHILE TO THE WEST OF
IT BETTER MIXING WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AND DRIER AIR ARE RAPIDLY
CLEARING SKIES. ONLY CAVEAT TO THIS IS BAND OF MID CLOUD REACHING
FROM MT/ND DOWN INTO SD/MN. THIS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS
MORNING.
COLD ADVECTION WILL OFFSET AMPLE SUNSHINE TODAY...WITH HIGHS
TOPPING OUT FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014
LONG WAVE RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND...SHIFTS EAST
AS A SIGNIFICANT TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY ALONG THE CONUS WEST
COAST MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST TO START
THE WEEK. INITIAL SURGE OF WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
SHOULD HELP FUEL SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL MN
INTO WI SUNDAY NIGHT. BEST CHANCES LOOK TO LIE ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE I-94 CORRIDOR. A BRIEF DRY PERIOD LOOKS LIKELY MONDAY MORNING
AS THE MAIN WARM ADVECTION WING MOVES NORTH. BUT THE COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP IN LATER MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
BE QUITE MILD IN THE WARM SECTOR...WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOWER
70S ACROSS IA AND SOUTHERN WI.
TROUGH SHIFTS EAST TUESDAY WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
ALSO MOVING THROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK TO NEAR OR EVEN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TO COMPLETE THE WEEK. IN FACT...ANOTHER
REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD AIR LOOKS TO INVADE BY FRIDAY...WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014
THE DRIER AIR FROM THE WEST HAS FINALLY BEGUN TO WORK INTO THE
AREA AS THE DEW POINT HAS DROPPED DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S AT BOTH
KTOB AND KAUM. IN RESPONSE TO THIS...THE VISIBILITY HAS COME UP TO
MVFR AT KTOB BUT HAS BEEN SLOW TO BEGIN IMPROVING ELSEWHERE. THE
25.03Z RAP AND 25.00Z NAM CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE WIND SHIFT AND
DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO KRST BY 06Z...BUT THIS SEEMS OPTIMISTIC
AND WILL HOLD ONTO THE DENSE FOG A LITTLE LONGER BEFORE FINALLY
ALLOWING THE WIND SHIFT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF VFR CONDITIONS TO
OCCUR AROUND 08Z. KLSE MAY NOT SEE MUCH OF A VISIBILITY
RESTRICTION DUE TO THE LACK OF ANY CLEARING SO EXPECT THE MVFR TO
IFR CEILINGS TO REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL ABOUT 10Z OR SO...FOLLOWED
BY VFR CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FOR THE REMAINDER
OF SATURDAY WITH LITTLE OR NO CLOUD COVER. THE NAM STILL INDICATES
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE MIXED LAYER.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
235 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 217 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014
DISSIPATION OF FOG AND CLOUD TRENDS THE PRIMARY FOCUS TODAY.
BEYOND THIS ATTENTION TURNS TO TEMPERATURES.
07Z NEPHANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.
AHEAD OF IT...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG CONTINUE...WHILE TO THE WEST OF
IT BETTER MIXING WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AND DRIER AIR ARE RAPIDLY
CLEARING SKIES. ONLY CAVEAT TO THIS IS BAND OF MID CLOUD REACHING
FROM MT/ND DOWN INTO SD/MN. THIS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS
MORNING.
COLD ADVECTION WILL OFFSET AMPLE SUNSHINE TODAY...WITH HIGHS
TOPPING OUT FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014
LONG WAVE RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND...SHIFTS EAST
AS A SIGNIFICANT TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY ALONG THE CONUS WEST
COAST MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST TO START
THE WEEK. INITIAL SURGE OF WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
SHOULD HELP FUEL SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL MN
INTO WI SUNDAY NIGHT. BEST CHANCES LOOK TO LIE ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE I-94 CORRIDOR. A BRIEF DRY PERIOD LOOKS LIKELY MONDAY MORNING
AS THE MAIN WARM ADVECTION WING MOVES NORTH. BUT THE COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP IN LATER MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
BE QUITE MILD IN THE WARM SECTOR...WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOWER
70S ACROSS IA AND SOUTHERN WI.
TROUGH SHIFTS EAST TUESDAY WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
ALSO MOVING THROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK TO NEAR OR EVEN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TO COMPLETE THE WEEK. IN FACT...ANOTHER
REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD AIR LOOKS TO INVADE BY FRIDAY...WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014
THE DRIER AIR FROM THE WEST HAS FINALLY BEGUN TO WORK INTO THE
AREA AS THE DEW POINT HAS DROPPED DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S AT BOTH
KTOB AND KAUM. IN RESPONSE TO THIS...THE VISIBILITY HAS COME UP TO
MVFR AT KTOB BUT HAS BEEN SLOW TO BEGIN IMPROVING ELSEWHERE. THE
25.03Z RAP AND 25.00Z NAM CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE WIND SHIFT AND
DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO KRST BY 06Z...BUT THIS SEEMS OPTIMISTIC
AND WILL HOLD ONTO THE DENSE FOG A LITTLE LONGER BEFORE FINALLY
ALLOWING THE WIND SHIFT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF VFR CONDITIONS TO
OCCUR AROUND 08Z. KLSE MAY NOT SEE MUCH OF A VISIBILITY
RESTRICTION DUE TO THE LACK OF ANY CLEARING SO EXPECT THE MVFR TO
IFR CEILINGS TO REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL ABOUT 10Z OR SO...FOLLOWED
BY VFR CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FOR THE REMAINDER
OF SATURDAY WITH LITTLE OR NO CLOUD COVER. THE NAM STILL INDICATES
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE MIXED LAYER.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR WIZ032.
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR MNZ079-
086>088-094>096.
IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1157 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 912 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014
DENSE FOG HAS FORMED ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA AGAIN THIS EVENING.
NOT EXPECTING THIS TO LAST THROUGH THE ENTIRE NIGHT AS A SURFACE
TROUGH IS SLOWLY APPROACHING THE WESTERN AREA. ONCE THIS COMES
IN...THE WINDS WILL GO AROUND TO THE WEST WITH DRIER AIR COMING IN
AS WELL. UNTIL THIS HAPPENS THOUGH...THE VISIBILITY WILL BE DOWN
TO A QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES. UNCERTAIN ON HOW FAR EAST TO
BRING THE ADVISORY AS THE 25.00Z HRRR DOES NOT SUGGEST THE LOW
VISIBILITIES WILL LAST VERY LONG FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...LOW CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG/DZ THIS
EVENING...TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD.
18Z DATA ANALYSIS HAD A SFC TROUGH/FRONT ACROSS WESTERN MN/WESTERN
IA...MAKING STEADY PROGRESS EAST. VERY MOIST LOW LEVEL AIRMASS IN
PLACE AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH/FRONT. FOG PERSISTING ACROSS MUCH OF
WI/IA HOWEVER VSBYS WERE SLOWLY IMPROVING. SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW/
WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE TROUGH SPREADING LOW CLOUDS/FOG FROM
CENTRAL IA BACK INTO THE FCST AREA. WV IMAGERY SHOWED ONE SHORTWAVE
DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO IL AND A MORE VIGOROUS ONE MOVING EAST NEAR
LK WINNIPEG.
NO MAJOR PROBLEMS NOTED WITH 24.12Z MODEL INITIALIZATIONS. GFS A
LITTLE HIGH WITH SFC DEW POINTS ACROSS IA/SOUTHERN MN BUT NOT OFF AS
MUCH AS IT TYPICALLY IS. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS THE SHORTWAVE
NEAR LK WINNIPEG EARLY THIS AFTERNOON TRACKS MAINLY NORTH OF LK
SUPERIOR TONIGHT THEN AS THE BULK OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKS
INTO QUEBEC BY LATE SAT. STRONGER HGT RISES STILL PROGGED SAT NIGHT
WITH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS TO THE MN/DAKOTAS BORDER BY 12Z SUN.
MODEL TREND TONIGHT THRU SAT NIGHT FAVORS FASTER OF EARLIER RUNS
WITH FEATURES AND MORE NORTHERLY WITH THE SHORTWAVE TRACK. SHORT-
TERM FCST CONFIDENCE IS GOOD THIS CYCLE.
IN THE SHORT TERM...MOIST LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE SFC-
850MB TROUGH CONTINUES ACROSS THE FCST AREA INTO THIS EVENING...WITH
LOWER STRATUS CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG PERSISTING. BY MIDNIGHT THE
SHORTWAVE TRACKING NORTH OF LK SUPERIOR PUSHES THE SFC-850MB TROUGH/
FRONT SOUTH/EAST OF THE FCST AREA. INCREASING NORTHWEST FLOW/COLD
ADVECTION/SUBSIDENCE/DRYING IN THIS LAYER SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA
BEHIND THIS TROUGH/FRONT DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS. TRENDED CLOUDS AND ANY PATCHY FOG/DZ DOWN/OUT DURING THE
EVENING INTO EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. GRADIENT NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONT TO KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER STIRRED LATE TONIGHT AND LOWS
ONCE AGAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL. A DEEP...DRY AIRMASS AND BROAD DEEP
LAYERED SUBSIDENCE SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA FOR SAT/SAT NIGHT AS HGTS
ALOFT SLOWLY RISE AND CAN HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION. 925MB TEMPS IN THE +9C TO +13C RANGE SAT AFTERNOON EVEN WITH
THE LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION. MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL SHOWING MIXING TO
AROUND 900MB SAT AFTERNOON...WITH 20-25KTS OF WIND IN THE TOP OF
THE MIXED LAYER. RAISED SAT AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS IN THE FCST GRIDS.
SFC RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SAT NIGHT...FOR DECOUPLED WINDS
AND STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER THE DEEP DRY AIRMASS/MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. AFTER SAT HIGHS 4F TO 8F ABOVE NORMAL...LOWS SAT NIGHT
LOOKING TO DIP TO NEAR/BELOW NORMAL. USED A BLEND OF THE NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE LOWS/HIGHS FOR TONIGHT THRU SAT NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014
FORECAST CONCERNS FOR SUNDAY THRU MON NIGHT...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES SUN
NIGHT THRU MON NIGHT...TEMPERATURES.
24.12Z MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SUN AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AND TROUGHING DIGS INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
ROCKIES. RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA SUN NIGHT AS THE TROUGH
PROGRESSES THRU THE ROCKIES...WITH THE AREA UNDER INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. TREND SUN/SUN NIGHT IS LESS DIGGING OF THE
TROUGH THRU THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. TIGHTER CONSENSUS MON AS THE TROUGH
LIFTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS. TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH
THE TROUGH MON NIGHT AS IT LIFTS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST....BUT
THESE SMALLER THAN THE EARLIER RUNS. TREND MON/MON NIGHT IS TOWARD
A COMPROMISE ON STRENGTH/TIMING OF EARLIER RUNS. FCST CONFIDENCE
FOR SUN THRU MON NIGHT IS AVERAGE TO GOOD THIS CYCLE.
SFC-850MB LOW/TROUGH WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES
MOVES QUICKLY INTO CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS SUN. INCREASING SOUTHEAST
TO SOUTHWEST MDT/STRONG WARM ADVECTION FLOW BETWEEN THIS TROUGH AND
THE RETREATING SFC HIGH/RIDGE AXIS SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION.
QUESTION IS HOW QUICKLY DOES THE INCREASING MOISTURE ARRIVE. 925-
700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT SPREADS INTO THE FCST AREA SUN AFTERNOON
BUT INITIALLY A VERY DRY AIRMASS TO SATURATE AS IT DOES. 925-850MB
MOISTENS WEST OF THE MS RIVER SUN AFTERNOON WHILE MORE 850-700MB
SATURATION OCCURS EAST OF THE MS RIVER. BULK OF WARM ADVECTION
INITIALLY GOES INTO WARMING WITH SOME INCREASE OF UPWARD MOTION
INDICATED LATE SUN AFTERNOON. MAY YET NEED A SMALL -SHRA CHANCE LATE
SUN AFTERNOON BUT LEFT IT DRY FOR NOW. LIFT CONTINUES TO INCREASE
SUN NIGHT AS THE SFC-850MB TROUGH/FRONT APPROACH AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT
AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH SPREADS INTO THE REGION. MODELS NOW
INDICATING SOMEWHAT LESS MOISTURE TO ADVECT INTO/OVER THE AREA SUN
NIGHT...MAINLY BELOW 800MB WITH RATHER DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE
800- 500MB LAYER. STRONGEST FORCING/LIFT PROGGED OVER THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FCST AREA...NORTHEAST OF A WARM FRONT
ADVANCING ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS DO STILL PROG AT LEAST 250-500
J/KG OF MUCAPE ACROSS THE AREA SUN NIGHT. 20-50 PERCENT
SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA CHANCES PER THE MODEL CONSENSUS...HIGHEST
ALONG/NORTHEAST OF I-94 STILL LOOK GOOD SUN NIGHT. MOISTURE NOW
PROGGED TO DECREASE ACROSS THE AREA AS THE 925-700MB TROUGH PASSES
AND THE FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY IN THAT LAYER. GIVEN THE SFC
LOW/FRONTS IN THE AREA AND AREA AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH...AND SOME WEAK MUCAPE OVER THE AREA... CONTINUED A SMALL
-SHRA/TSRA CHANCE MON. MONDAY COULD END UP MORE SUN THAN CLOUD
UNDER THE MID LEVEL DRY PUNCH...WITH 925MB TEMPS SUPPORTING HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 60S-MID 70S ACROSS THE AREA. STRONGER MID/UPPER LEVEL
FORCING/DIVERGENCE/LIFT SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA MON NIGHT AS THE
MID LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS INTO THE REGION. DEEPER SATURATION TO
700MB INDICATED ALONG WITH SOME WEAK MUCAPE. SHRA CHANCES IN THE
30-50 PERCENT RANGE WITH ISOLATED TSRA REASONABLE. MODEL/ENSEMBLE
CONSENSUS HAS HIGHS/LOWS FOR SUN THRU MON NIGHT WELL TRENDED FOR
NOW.
FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.../DAYS 4 TO 7/...
FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...LINGERING -SHRA TUE...SHRA CHANCES
WITH NEXT SYSTEM WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT...TEMPERATURES.
24.00Z/24.12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS IN DECENT AGREEMENT TUE FOR
THE MAIN TROUGH/SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST. REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR HGTS TO FALL ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WED WITH THE NEXT TROUGH/SHORTWAVE ENERGY...THEN FOR
THIS TROUGH/ENERGY TO MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THU AND RIDGING
TO BUILD INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS FRI. GIVEN REASONABLE BETWEEN
MODEL AND RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY...CONFIDENCE IN THE DAY 4-7
PERIOD IS AVERAGE TO GOOD THIS CYCLE.
BY TUE...MODELS HAVE THE SFC LOW WITH THE TROUGH OVER LK SUPERIOR...
THE SFC-850MB TROUGH/COLD FRONT WELL EAST OF THE AREA AND LOW LEVEL
COLD ADVECTION SPREADING ACROSS MN/IA/WI. APPEARS ANY LINGERING
-SHRA CHANCES TUE ARE NOW IN THE MORNING AND OVER THE NORTHEAST END
OF THE FCST AREA. MORE SEASONABLE AIRMASS SPREADS IN TUE WITH 925MB
TEMPS BY 00Z WED IN THE +3C TO +7C RANGE. SOME LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION RETURNS WED AS THE NEXT LOW ADVANCES INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THIS NEXT LOW/TROUGH
APPEARS LIMITED BUT WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH/SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO
DROP ACROSS THE REGION...SMALL -SHRA CHANCE WED NIGHT/THU PER THE
MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS OKAY FOR NOW. SMALL LINGERING PRECIP
CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST END OF THE FCST AREA THU NIGHT...WHEN
COLUMN WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT PRECIP TYPE AS -RA/-SN OR
-SN. COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
ON TRACK TO BUILD IN TO END THE WEEK. FOR NOW...A CHILLY BUT DRY
EVENING IS IN STORE FOR THE TRICK-OR-TREATERS. MODEL/ENSEMBLE
CONSENSUS OF THE HIGHS/LOWS FOR TUE THRU FRI APPEARS WELL TRENDED
AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014
THE DRIER AIR FROM THE WEST HAS FINALLY BEGUN TO WORK INTO THE
AREA AS THE DEW POINT HAS DROPPED DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S AT BOTH
KTOB AND KAUM. IN RESPONSE TO THIS...THE VISIBILITY HAS COME UP TO
MVFR AT KTOB BUT HAS BEEN SLOW TO BEGIN IMPROVING ELSEWHERE. THE
25.03Z RAP AND 25.00Z NAM CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE WIND SHIFT AND
DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO KRST BY 06Z...BUT THIS SEEMS OPTIMISTIC
AND WILL HOLD ONTO THE DENSE FOG A LITTLE LONGER BEFORE FINALLY
ALLOWING THE WIND SHIFT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF VFR CONDITIONS TO
OCCUR AROUND 08Z. KLSE MAY NOT SEE MUCH OF A VISIBILITY
RESTRICTION DUE TO THE LACK OF ANY CLEARING SO EXPECT THE MVFR TO
IFR CEILINGS TO REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL ABOUT 10Z OR SO...FOLLOWED
BY VFR CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FOR THE REMAINDER
OF SATURDAY WITH LITTLE OR NO CLOUD COVER. THE NAM STILL INDICATES
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE MIXED LAYER.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR WIZ032.
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR MNZ079-086>088-
094>096.
IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR IAZ008>011-018-
019-029-030.
&&
$$
UPDATE...04
SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1151 PM MDT SUN OCT 26 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM MDT SUN OCT 26 2014
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW RIDGE CENTERED
OVER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND TROUGH BUILDING SOUTH INTO THE
WESTERN US. SW FLOW IS IN PLACE OVR THE CENTRAL ROCKIES/NORTHERN
PLAINS WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER OUR CWA. AT THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT IS MOVING OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO
WITH A WARM FRONT OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA. SURFACE TROUGH HAS SHIFTED
EAST WITH LIGHT NW LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS OUR CWA.
PRECIP TONIGHT-MONDAY...GUIDANCE SHOWING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
TONIGHT FROM NW TO SE THROUGH SUNRISE. MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
PASS ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY WITH BETTER FORCING OVER OUR CWA
ALONG THE SOUTHERN AXIS OF THIS TROUGH BETWEEN THE MID-MORNING TO
EARLY AFTERNOON PERIOD. LIMITING FACTOR FOR PRECIPITATION TONIGHT
AND MONDAY CONTINUES TO BE A VERY DRY AIR MASS THAT WILL HAVE TO BE
OVERCOME FOR ANY PRECIPITATION TO REACH THE GROUND. BY MIDDAY MONDAY
SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE A SATURATED LAYER WITHIN 4-8KFT AGL...HOWEVER
THERE IS STILL A DRY LAYER BELOW THIS WITH TD DEPRESSIONS 30-40F.
THERE IS SOME WEAK INSTABILITY WITHIN THIS LAYER...WHICH COULD
SUPPORT A FEW MODERATE SHOWERS...WHICH COULD REACH THE SURFACE AS
MEASURABLE RAINFALL. SEEMS LIKELY WE WILL SEE VIRGA AND MAYBE
SCATTERED SPRINKLES...AND ONLY ISOLATED 0.01-0.05" AMOUNTS OUT OF
THIS EVENT. KEPT NW TO SE TIMING FROM 06Z TONIGHT THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON MONDAY...LIMITING POPS TO 20 BASED ON LIMITED CONFIDENCE
ON MEASURABLE PRECIP.
WIND/RH THIS AFTERNOON-MONDAY...LOW SURFACE TD VALUES ALREADY
ADVECTING EAST HAVE ALLOWED RH VALUES TO DROP TO NEAR 15
PERCENT...HOWEVER WITH WINDS ALREADY BACKING OFF AND STRONGER GUSTS
(20-25KT) LIMITED TO THE FAR NW WHERE IS HIGHER RED FLAG CONDITIONS
ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY. SURFACE TD WILL CONTINUE TO DROP THROUGH
THE DAY MONDAY...HOWEVER WITH COOLING AIR MASS AND HIGHS IN THE
50S/60S RH VALUES WILL NOT DROP TO NECESSARY LEVELS FOR RED FLAG
WARNING. WINDS ON THE OTHER HAND WILL INCREASE AS COLD FRONT DROPS
SOUTH...AND WITH MIXING TO AROUND 800MB WE SHOULD SEE GUSTS 30-40
MPH MONDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. ADVISORY CRITERIA IS NOT
CURRENTLY EXPECTED BASED ON CURRENT GFS/NAM MIXING HEIGHTS/850-775MB
WINDS. IF WE WERE TO MIX TO 700MB MAYBE WE COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS IN
THE 45-48 MPH RANGE...HOWEVER THE WOULD BE MOST LIKELY WITH
VIRGA/LIGHT SHOWERS AND NOT A WIDESPREAD THREAT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM MDT SUN OCT 26 2014
UPPER FLOW WILL BE NORTHWEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THIS TIME.
SUBSIDENCE AND LACK OF MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE FA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DYNAMICS FROM THE EXITING TROUGH SHOULD
BE OUTSIDE OF THE FA BY MONDAY EVENING. POPS WILL BE NIL THROUGH
THIS PART OF THE FORECAST.
FROST POTENTIAL LOOKS GOOD FOR MONDAY NIGHT WITH A HARD FREEZE
POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST
KANSAS...WEST OF HIGHWAY 27. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR FROST
AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT BUT A HARD FREEZE IS NOT EXPECTED SINCE
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS COLD. PLAN ON ISSUING A FREEZE WATCH
FOR LATE MONDAY NIGHT IN COORDINATION WITH BOU AND PUB OFFICES. SEE
DETAILS BELOW.
MIN TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 20S WEST
OF HIGHWAY 27 WITH LOWER TO MID 30S EAST ACROSS THE KANSAS ZONES.
MIN TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE MID 30S. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE LOWER 60S.
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 70S ARE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY.
IN THE EXTENDED...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FA THROUGH SUNDAY AS A RIDGE
BUILDS EAST FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS. BY SUNDAY UPPER FLOW
TURNS SOUTHWEST AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO
THE NORTH PLAINS. SINCE MOISTURE IS TOO FAR NORTH CHANCES ARE VERY
SLIM FOR ANYTHING MEASURABLE IN THE FA. CONSEQUENTLY, POPS WILL BE
NIL SUNDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL WARM TO THE
LOWER 70S BY SUNDAY AS 850 TEMPERATURES WARM TO AROUND 20C. MIN
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S WILL WARM TO THE LOWER 40S BY
SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM MDT SUN OCT 26 2014
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT MCK AND GLD.
WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST AND INCREASE FOLLOWING
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION. EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME GUSTY BETWEEN
08Z- 10Z...INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING...AND CONTINUE THROUGH
23Z- 01Z MONDAY AFTERNOON. ALSO EXPECT A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR
VIRGA TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY...BUT
HAVE NOT INCLUDED THEM IN THE TAF AS THEY WILL NOT BE A PREVAILING
CONDITION.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
KSZ001-013-027.
CO...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
COZ090>092.
NE...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
NEZ079.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...LOCKHART
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1257 AM EDT MON OCT 27 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW UPR RDG OVER
CENTRAL NAMERICA BLDG TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LKS BTWN SLOWLY DEPARTING
CLOSED LO OVER SE CANADA AND ANOTHER DEEP TROF OVER THE W. AT THE
SFC...HI PRES RDG AXIS AND DRY AIRMASS SHOWN ON THE 12Z INL/MPX
RAOBS...WHERE 12Z PWAT WAS 0.25-0.30 INCH...ARE PRESSING EWD THRU
THE UPR LKS...BRINGING MOSUNNY SKIES TO UPR MI. SOME SC LINGERS OVER
THE FAR E UNDER LLVL NW FLOW/THERMAL TROF AHEAD OF THE RDG AXIS...
AND SOME CI SPILLING OVER THE UPR RDG AXIS TO THE NE OF H85 WARM FNT
IN THE NRN PLAINS IS MOVING INTO THE W. DEEPENING SFC LO PRES IS
MOVING SLOWLY E THRU THE NRN PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF THE WRN TROF...BUT
OVERALL DRYNESS OF THE AIRMASS IN THE NRN PLAINS HAS PREVENTED ANY
PCPN AND EVEN MUCH CLD COVER SO FAR. 12Z H85 TEMPS WERE AOA 20C IN
THE NCENTRAL PLAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS LO.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUSED ON CLD/PCPN TRENDS
ASSOCIATED WITH APRCHG WARM FNT.
TNGT WL START OFF MAINLY CLEAR WITH JUST SOME SCT HI CLDS...BUT THEN
CLDS WL THICKEN THRU THE NGT WITH DVLPG WAD BTWN HI PRES RDG
DEPARTING TO THE E AND LO PRES MOVING TOWARD LK WINNIPEG AND NE OF
ATTENDANT WARM FNT MOVING NE THRU WI. ALTHOUGH LINGERING LLVL DRY
AIR AND PASSAGE OF SHARPER H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC TO THE NW MAY TEND TO
LIMIT POPS...FCST DEEP ISENTROPIC ASCENT WITH VIGOROUS H85-5
MOISTENING LIFTING PWAT TOWARD ARND AN INCH OR 225 PCT OF NORMAL
OVER THE W BY 12Z MON...BAND OF FCST H85-7 FGEN TO THE NE OF THE H85
WARM FNT AND INCRSG UPR DVGC JUSTIFY BUMPING POPS UP A BIT OVER THE
W HALF LATE. BUT OVERALL INITIAL DRYNESS OF THE AIRMASS WARRANTS A
FCST OF NO HIER THAN HI CHC POPS. MAINTAINED MENTION OF SOME THUNDER
OVER THE W LATER AT NGT...WHEN MID LVL LAPSE RATES ARE FCST TO
STEEPEN AND FCST SDNGS INDICATE MUCAPE UP TO 500 J/KG. THE STEEPER
MID LVL LAPSE RATES FCST ARE REASONABLE GIVEN THE VERY HI H85 TEMPS
OBSVD IN THE PLAINS TODAY. DESPITE THE EXPECTED INCRSG CLDS/MSTR...
DRYNESS OF THE AIRMASS IN PLACE SUGGESTS LOWERING FCST LO TEMPS A
BIT. EXPECT THE LOWEST MIN TEMPS TOWARD THE LO END OF GUIDANCE OVER
THE INTERIOR E...WHERE CLDS WL INCRS LATEST. HOURLY TEMPS FCST WL
SHOW RELATIVELY EARLY MINS WITH RISING READINGS LATER TNGT UNDER THE
INCRSG/THICKENING CLDS.
MON...INCRSD POPS TO LIKELY ON MON MRNG OVER THE E HALF WHERE MODELS
SHOW INCRSG UPR DVGC/BAND OF H85-7 FGEN AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT
COINCIDENT WITH INCRSG PWAT UP TO ABOUT 215 PCT OF NORMAL. MODEL
FCST SDNGS INDICATE MUCAPE 500-1000 J/KG WHEN LIFTING FM ARND H8 ON
MON. GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF THIS ELEVATED INSTABILITY...NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION THERE COULD BE SOME HAIL UNDER ANY STRONGER STORM.
ARRIVAL OF DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC/MID LVL DRYING AND CAPPING W-E IN
THE AFTN FOLLOWING EXIT OF THE UPR DVGC/FGEN BAND WL DIMINISH THE
POPS. TENDED TOWARD THE LO END OF GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS ON MON
GIVEN HI SFC-H85 STABILITY/CLDS N OF SFC WARM FNT. ADDED A MENTION
OF SOME FOG LATE IN THE DAY OVER THE CENTRAL WITH INCRSGLY MOIST
UPSLOPE LLVL SE FLOW UNDER MID LVL DRYING IN ADVANCE OF SLOWLY
APRCHG WARM FNT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014
THE FORECAST FOR MON NIGHT/TUE REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN DUE TO
MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY /AND RESULTING
CYCLOGENESIS/ ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION. THE REAL DIFFERENCES ARE DUE TO THE PLACEMENT OF THE
SHORTWAVE. THE GFS KEEPS THE BEST ENERGY FARTHER N...RESULTING IN
THE DRY SLOT BEING OVER THE CWA MUCH OF MON NIGHT AND TUE. ON THE
OTHER HAND...THE NAM IS MUCH FARTHER S...RESULTING IN A DEEPER SFC
LOW THAT MOVES FROM CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN TO ERN UPPER MI...WHICH
MEAN MORE RAIN. THE ECMWF IS BETWEEN THE NAM AND GFS AND ONLY BRINGS
THE DRY SLOT INTO FAR SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...RESULTING IN A
WETTER FORECAST THAN THE GFS. VERY DIFFICULT TO LEAN TOO FAR ONE WAY
OR ANOTHER AT THIS POINT GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY
AND SFC CYCLOGENESIS...SO WILL GO WITH A CONSENSUS BLEND.
ADDITIONALLY...TUE WILL END UP BEING GUSTY...BUT THE EXTENT OF SUCH
DEPENDS LARGELY ON THE TRACK/STRENGTH OF THE SFC LOW...SO HARD TO
GET TOO SPECIFIC ON EXPECTED GUSTS AT THIS POINT. THE KEWEENAW
SHOULD SEE THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER UPPER MI DUE TO THE FAVORABLE
WLY WINDS DIRECTION.
TUE NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT...THE SYSTEM THAT MOVED THROUGH ON TUE WILL
MOVE INTO NRN QUEBEC BY LATE WED AS A SFC RIDGE MOVES TO THE WRN
CWA. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IMPROVES DURING THIS TIME AS CONDITIONS
TRANSITION TO A MORE FAVORABLE LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED RAIN/SNOW
SETUP...WHICH ENTAILS LESS MODEL VARIABILITY IN THIS CASE. BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NW...BUT WILL START TO BACK TO THE W
/FROM W TO E/ ON WED AFTERNOON AS THE RIDGE MOVES IN. THERE WILL BE
AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE
PREVIOUS SYSTEM INTO WED MORNING...BUT DRIER AIR WILL START TO
BECOME MORE DOMINANT ON WED. AS FOR TEMPS...850MB TEMPS WILL FALL
FROM AROUND -2C AT 00Z WED TO AROUND -6C AT 12Z WED. DURING THE DAY
ON WED...850MB TEMPS WILL FALL A COUPLE OF DEGREES OVER ERN LAKE
SUPERIOR WHILE WARMING A COUPLE OF DEGREES OVER THE WRN LAKE.
OVERALL...LOOKS LIKE A GOOD SETUP FOR LAKE EFFECT RAIN...WITH SNOW
BECOMING MORE LIKELY IN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN LATE TUE NIGHT AND
TO A LESSER EXTENT ON WED. SHOULD SEE A DIMINISHING TREND TO PRECIP
ON WED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WRN CWA. DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE ANY
SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.
STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY FOR LATE IN THE WEEK GIVEN POOR MODEL RUN
TO RUN CONTINUITY AND MODEL DISAGREEMENT...COMBINED WITH THE USUAL
CAVEATS WITH SHORTWAVES 5 DAYS OUT. THE GFS BRINGS THE SHORTWAVE
RIGHT ACROSS THE CWA...WHILE THE ECMWF MOVES THE SHORTWAVE FARTHER
SW. IN ANY CASE...MODELS HAVE SHOWN POOR RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY WITH
THE SHORTWAVE ITSELF...SO SYNOPTIC PRECIP IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.
THANKFULLY...THERE IS HIGHER CONFIDENCE WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW DUE TO
MODEL AGREEMENT ON NNW LOW LEVEL WINDS AND 850MB TEMPS AOB -10C FOR
MUCH OF FRI AND POSSIBLY INTO FRI NIGHT. THE LES SHOULD RAMP UP THU
NIGHT WHEN THE COLDER AIR SURGES INTO THE AREA /DEPENDENT ON
SHORTWAVE TIMING AS WELL/ AND SHOULD DIMINISH FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AS
A SFC RIDGE MAY SHIFT ACROSS THE CWA. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS IN NNW WIND SNOWBELTS EVEN IF THE SHORTWAVE DOES NOT
DIRECTLY IMPACT THE CWA...BUT WOULD BE GREATER IF THE SHORTWAVE DOES
IMPACT THE AREA. SHOULD ALSO BE WINDY FOR AT LEAST A SHORT PERIOD
THU NIGHT INTO FRI /DEPENDING ON THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE
SHORTWAVE/ AS A 1030MB SFC HIGH MOVES FROM THE WNW FAIRLY QUICKLY
BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE. SHOULD SEE A QUICK PERIOD OF GALES FROM THE
EVENT...BUT WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL THINGS BECOME MORE CERTAIN TO
GET TOO SPECIFIC ON WINDS SPEEDS.
SHOULD SEE ANY REMAINING LAKE EFFECT PRECIP DIE OUT/MOVE OUT ON SAT
AS MODELS SHOW THE SFC HIGH SHIFT E OF THE CWA. WILL RUN WITH A
CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...WHICH WILL SHOW A
WARMING TREND AS AN UPPER RIDGE PUSHES IN FROM THE W.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1257 AM EDT MON OCT 27 2014
WELL IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT...SCT-NMRS SHRA WILL
SPREAD INTO THE UPPER LAKES OVERNIGHT. SOME TSTMS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED...BUT POTENTIAL OF TSTMS OCCURRING AT ANY OF THE TERMINALS
CONTINUES TO BE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN FCST. INITIALLY...VFR
CONDITIONS AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW UNDER VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL DELAY
DEVELOPMENT OF LOWER CIGS...BUT AS INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR FLOWS INTO
THE AREA...EXPECT CIGS TO FALL TO MVFR TODAY AND THEN TO IFR THIS
EVENING. SHRA WILL CONTINUE TO BE SCATTERED AROUND THE AREA THRU THE
DAY AND INTO THE EVENING. FINALLY...MAINTAINED MENTION OF LLWS AT
KIWD OVERNIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL JET NOSES INTO WRN UPPER MI BEFORE
DECREASING SOMEWHAT AS IT SHIFTS E.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL LEAD TO DECREASING WINDS
TODAY. AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD WITH WINDS LESS THAN 20 KTS WITH THE
HIGH PRESSURE...SE WINDS INCREASE TO 30 KTS OVER MAINLY EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR ON MONDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. ONCE
THIS LOW MOVES TO THE EAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR ON TUESDAY...WEST WINDS
TO 30 KTS AND POSSIBLY UP TO GALE FORCE OF 35 KTS WILL DEVELOP LATE
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT NORTHWEST AND STAY
UP TO 30 KTS INTO WEDNESDAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING TO LESS
THAN 25 KTS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK...POSSIBLY LEADING TO GALES TO 35
KTS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...TITUS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED TO ADD CLIMATE SECTION
NWS NORMAN OK
402 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2014
.DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST CHALLENGE OF THE DAY IS DETERMINING RAIN CHANCES TODAY
AND TONIGHT. HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE RAIN CHANCES FORECAST THROUGH
TONIGHT.
NEAR RECORD HEAT WILL AGAIN OCCUR TODAY SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT...
MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF A CLINTON TO PONCA CITY LINE. USED A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE HIGHS...GENERALLY TOWARDS THE COOLER SIDE NORTH OF THE
FRONT AND WARM SIDE SOUTH OF THE FRONT.
THIS MORNING...INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL OCCUR. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...PERHAPS SLIGHTLY
FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. WENT WITH THE HRRR FOR COLD
FRONT TIMING TODAY.
THIS AFTERNOON...A BAND OR LINE OF HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP NEAR OR JUST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. THE
LATEST TWO RUNS OF THE HRRR INDICATED THIS POTENTIAL. SINCE
FORCING IS RATHER STRONG...THINK THE HRRR SOLUTION SEEMS
REASONABLE...SO ADDED 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCES NEAR CLINTON... TO
OKLAHOMA CITY...TO STILLWATER. IF THIS MATERIALIZES...GUSTY WINDS
AND BRIEF DOWNPOURS WOULD BE POSSIBLE. NOT SURE THIS WILL OCCUR AS
OTHER MODELS GENERALLY DID NOT DEPICT ANY QPF. THERE IS AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE A FEW ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS FROM DAYTIME HEATING...BUT THIS
SEEMS DOUBTFUL AS THE CAP SHOULD HOLD.
TONIGHT...ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP...GENERALLY ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT. THESE WOULD BE CAPABLE OF HAIL...POSSIBLY UP
TO QUARTERS...THOUGH OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL REMAINS LOW...AND
THE HIGHER STORM CHANCES MAY BE ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND POINTS
EAST. KEPT RAIN CHANCES 20 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE EAST OF A ENID TO
ALTUS LINE WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES EAST OF SHAWNEE. ANY RAINFALL
WILL LIKELY REMAIN LIGHT AND SPOTTY...THOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT A EAST WEST BAND OF OVER 0.50 INCH SOMEWHERE NEAR AND
EAST OF I-35. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH AND THROUGH THE
AREA.
TUESDAY...A FEW ELEVATED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY LINGER NEAR THE
RED RIVER EAST OF I-35. OTHERWISE...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA. USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE HIGHS...WHICH WILL
BE SEASONABLE FOR LATE OCTOBER.
TUESDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
ARE EXPECTED. PATCHY FROST MAY DEVELOP IN A FEW RURAL LOCATIONS...
MAINLY IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE
RED RIVER CLOSE TO AND EAST OF I-35.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS. KEPT LOW
CHANCES FOR RAIN OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS ON THURSDAY AS THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE RETURN FOR RAIN
DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE
OUT PATCHY FROST THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING IN RURAL
LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE COOLEST ON FRIDAY. MOISTURE
MAY INCREASE BY SUNDAY.
MBS
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS THE AREA. HERE ARE
THE RECORDS.
TODAY OCTOBER 27
OKLAHOMA CITY 86 1922
WICHITA FALLS 91 1938
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 85 52 70 44 / 30 20 0 0
HOBART OK 85 50 71 42 / 20 10 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 90 56 74 47 / 0 20 0 0
GAGE OK 75 41 68 35 / 10 10 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 82 46 70 39 / 20 30 0 0
DURANT OK 84 60 72 50 / 0 40 20 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
03/17
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
359 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2014
.DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST CHALLENGE OF THE DAY IS DETERMINING RAIN CHANCES TODAY
AND TONIGHT. HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE RAIN CHANCES FORECAST THROUGH
TONIGHT.
NEAR RECORD HEAT WILL AGAIN OCCUR TODAY SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT...
MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF A CLINTON TO PONCA CITY LINE. USED A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE HIGHS...GENERALLY TOWARDS THE COOLER SIDE NORTH OF THE
FRONT AND WARM SIDE SOUTH OF THE FRONT.
THIS MORNING...INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL OCCUR. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...PERHAPS SLIGHTLY
FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. WENT WITH THE HRRR FOR COLD
FRONT TIMING TODAY.
THIS AFTERNOON...A BAND OR LINE OF HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP NEAR OR JUST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. THE
LATEST TWO RUNS OF THE HRRR INDICATED THIS POTENTIAL. SINCE
FORCING IS RATHER STRONG...THINK THE HRRR SOLUTION SEEMS
REASONABLE...SO ADDED 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCES NEAR CLINTON... TO
OKLAHOMA CITY...TO STILLWATER. IF THIS MATERIALIZES...GUSTY WINDS
AND BRIEF DOWNPOURS WOULD BE POSSIBLE. NOT SURE THIS WILL OCCUR AS
OTHER MODELS GENERALLY DID NOT DEPICT ANY QPF. THERE IS AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE A FEW ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS FROM DAYTIME HEATING...BUT THIS
SEEMS DOUBTFUL AS THE CAP SHOULD HOLD.
TONIGHT...ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP...GENERALLY ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT. THESE WOULD BE CAPABLE OF HAIL...POSSIBLY UP
TO QUARTERS...THOUGH OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL REMAINS LOW...AND
THE HIGHER STORM CHANCES MAY BE ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND POINTS
EAST. KEPT RAIN CHANCES 20 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE EAST OF A ENID TO
ALTUS LINE WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES EAST OF SHAWNEE. ANY RAINFALL
WILL LIKELY REMAIN LIGHT AND SPOTTY...THOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT A EAST WEST BAND OF OVER 0.50 INCH SOMEWHERE NEAR AND
EAST OF I-35. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH AND THROUGH THE
AREA.
TUESDAY...A FEW ELEVATED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY LINGER NEAR THE
RED RIVER EAST OF I-35. OTHERWISE...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA. USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE HIGHS...WHICH WILL
BE SEASONABLE FOR LATE OCTOBER.
TUESDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
ARE EXPECTED. PATCHY FROST MAY DEVELOP IN A FEW RURAL LOCATIONS...
MAINLY IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE
RED RIVER CLOSE TO AND EAST OF I-35.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS. KEPT LOW
CHANCES FOR RAIN OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS ON THURSDAY AS THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE RETURN FOR RAIN
DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE
OUT PATCHY FROST THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING IN RURAL
LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE COOLEST ON FRIDAY. MOISTURE
MAY INCREASE BY SUNDAY.
MBS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 85 52 70 44 / 30 20 0 0
HOBART OK 85 50 71 42 / 20 10 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 90 56 74 47 / 0 20 0 0
GAGE OK 75 41 68 35 / 10 10 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 82 46 70 39 / 20 30 0 0
DURANT OK 84 60 72 50 / 0 40 20 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
03/17
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
319 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2014
FOCUS IS ON RAIN THIS MORNING...AND POTENTIAL FOR REDEVELOPMENT
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94 AS WAS
PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. THAT ACTIVITY IS MOVING NORTHEAST...AND
ANTICIPATE DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. BUT A POTENT LONG WAVE TROUGH WITH EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE
ENERGY WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...DRIVING A SURFACE
LOW AND COLD FRONT ACROSS DURING THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL RAIN
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. BUT IT DOES
APPEAR THAT THE TIMING IS SLIGHTLY OFF...WITH THE FRONT ALMOST ALL
THE WAY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE NEW CONVECTION DEVELOPS.
THUS HAVE MAINTAINED THE RAIN CHANCES WITH THE HIGHEST RISK OVER
THE FAR SOUTHEAST PART OF OUR AREA FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. SOME QUESTION TODAY ON CLOUDS AS WELL. A FEW OF THE
MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST DRY AIR ROTATING IN FOR A TIME...LEADING
TO LESS CLOUD COVER AND POTENTIALLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. DID RAISE
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN WHERE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR LATEST.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2014
COOLER AIR DROPPING INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER
TROUGH ON TUESDAY. COULD BE A BIT BREEZY AS WELL WITH GOOD
DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT. WITH THE COOLER AIR REGIME...COULD
SEE SOME INSTABILITY SHOWERS FROM CENTRAL MN INTO NORTHERN WI.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY.
BUT A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
THIS FEATURE HAS BEEN PRESENT IN THE MODELS FOR SEVERAL DAYS
NOW...WITH VARYING DEGREES OF STRENGTH AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE.
PREVIOUS FORECAST TOOK THE RAIN CHANCE OUT...AND HAVE MAINTAINED
THAT CONTINUITY FOR NOW. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS HOWEVER...SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. ANOTHER REINFORCING
SHOT OF COLD AIR ARRIVES TO END THE WEEK AS A SPRAWLING HIGH
PRESSURE AREA DROPS IN FROM CANADA. FRIDAY SHOULD BE A CHILLY FALL
DAY...AND SATURDAY MORNING LOOKS QUITE CRISP. BUT THE UPPER
PATTERN IS REALLY AMPLIFYING BY THIS TIME...AND WITH A DEEPENING
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE MT/WY ROCKIES...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN AND WILL BEGIN A SLOW MODERATION. COULD
BE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE WARM ADVECTION ON SUNDAY...BUT AT
THIS POINT NOT LOOKING LIKE ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT. BRUNT OF THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS TO STAY TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA AT THIS
POINT...SO MINIMAL IMPACT. BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE EVOLUTION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014
27.00Z SOUNDINGS FROM KDVN AND KMPX INDICATED A LOT OF DRY AIR
WAS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING AND DESPITE THE ONGOING
ISENTROPIC LIFT...SATURATION HAS YET TO OCCUR. THE 27.00Z NAM AND
27.03Z RAP NOW SUGGEST THAT IF SATURATION IS GOING TO OCCUR...IT
WILL NOT BE UNTIL AFTER 12Z MONDAY. BASED ON THE CURRENT TRENDS
AND THIS MODEL DATA...HAVE TAKEN OUT THE IFR CONDITIONS FOR BOTH
TAFS ALONG WITH ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION TONIGHT. IF
SATURATION CAN OCCUR MONDAY MORNING...THE NAM WOULD STILL SUGGEST
THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR CEILINGS WITH MAYBE A LITTLE BIT
OF DRIZZLE COULD OCCUR AT KLSE AND JUST MVFR CEILINGS AT KRST. THE
RAP IS NOT AS PESSIMISTIC AND WOULD KEEP THINGS VFR BUT FOR
NOW...WILL MAINTAIN SOME FORECAST CONTINUITY AND SHOW A PERIOD OF
SOME MVFR CEILINGS. ONCE THE SURFACE LOW MOVES PAST THE AREA...THE
WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST WITH THE LIFT THROUGH THE
COLUMN BRIEFLY COMING TO AN END. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE CEILINGS TO
LIFT UP TO VFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. A MID LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TROUGH DOES LOOK TO COME THROUGH DURING THE EVENING AND COULD
HELP TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT RAIN IN THE DEFORMATION AREA ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW AND HAVE INCLUDED A VCSH FOR KLSE MONDAY
EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1150 PM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014
FORECAST FOCUS IS ON THE RAIN CHANCES FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUE...WITH A VARIETY OF WEATHER ELEMENTS PLAYING A ROLL IN WHERE AND
WHEN.
TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT RAMPS UP...WITH A 40 KT 850
MB JET NOSING INTO WESTERN WI BY 06Z...TRANSITIONING NORTHEAST BY
12Z. LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION LEADS ITS PARENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...925-850 MB MAX AROUND 06Z.
SOME NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST RUNNING FRONTOGENETIC RESPONSE ALONG 900
MB...IN THE VICINITY OF THE NOSE OF THE JET AND LOW LEVEL WARM PUSH.
THIS TOO IS MAXED AT 06Z. GFS/NAM MUCAPES SUGGEST 500+ J/KG OF
MUCAPE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT FOR THE LOCAL AREA. THERE WOULD SEEM TO BE
PLENTY OF LIFT AND INSTABILITY TO WARRANT AREAS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...DEPTH OF MOISTURE MIGHT PAINT A DIFFERENT
PICTURE.
LOOKING AT A SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST RUNNING X-SECTION DEPICTS A
SHALLOW INCREASE IN SATURATION TONIGHT...HOLDING UNDER 700 MB UNTIL
YOU WORK INTO NORTHERN/NORTHEAST WI. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS HAVE THIS
SATURATION UNDER AN APPRECIABLE INVERSION...WITH OMEGA CO-LOCATED IN
THE MOISTURE. HOWEVER...THE INSTABILITY IS ABOVE THE INVERSION...AND
THE CLOUD LAYER MIGHT NOT BE ABLE TO TAP THIS SOURCE OF LIFT AS A
RESULT - AT LEAST FOR PARTS OF THE AREA. IN FACT...MOST OF THE
SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE AREA SUGGEST DRIZZLE WOULD BE THE PCPN TYPE.
DEEPER CLOUD LAYER AND GREATER POTENTIAL TO RESOURCE THE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY LIES TO THE NORTHEAST...GENERALLY I-94 AND EAST/NORTH.
THINK THE SCENARIO WILL PLAY OUT WITH A 2-4 HOUR WIND OF A
SHOWER/STORM THREAT...ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET...WITH
GREATER PROBABILITIES OF DRIZZLE POST THE CONVECTIVE BAND. WILL
STICK WITH SHOWER MENTION FOR ALL PCPN CHANCES FOR SIMPLICITY.
THE SYSTEM/S SFC COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY...WITH
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH BUSTING INTO
WESTERN MN BY 00Z. RIBBON OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT RUNS ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT...PARALLEL TO ITS ORIENTATION...WITH UP TO
500 J/KG OF MUCAPE DEVELOPING JUST SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. ANTICIPATE
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT...WITH
THE BEST CHANCES JUST SOUTH/EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA.
TO THE NORTH...SFC LOW CONGEALS INTO ONE MAIN CENTER AS IT LIFTS
INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA. WESTWARD HANGING SFC TROUGH OFF THE LOW LOOKS
TO HOLD ACROSS NORTHERN MN/SOUTHERN CANADA. BITS OF UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY WILL SPIN AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL/TROUGH. EXPECT SOME PCPN
RESPONSE FROM THESE PIECES OF ENERGY AND THE SFC TROUGH. RH FIELDS
HOLD THE DEEPER SATURATION TO THE NORTH...WITH THE DEEPER LIFT.
WHILE THE MOST FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR PCPN WILL LIE NORTH AND THEN
SOUTH WITH THE FRONT...ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY AND WHERE VARIOUS BITS OF
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND WHERE THE SFC FRONT WILL BY AT XX TIME THAT
SMALL CHANCES ARE WARRANTED FOR MOST OF THE AREA MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT
/GREATER SOUTH-NORTH/.
MEANWHILE...ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE INDICATED ON THE 295 F SFC FOR THE
BETTER PART OF MON MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...CO-LOCATED WITH THE LOW
SATURATION. SIGNAL STILL FAVORS DRIZZLE. HAVE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES
IN THE I-94 CORRIDOR AS A RESULT. AGAIN...KEEPING PTYPE AS SHOWERS
FOR SIMPLICITY. THAT SAID...THIS COULD UNFOLD INTO AN AREAS OF
DRIZZLE - LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION - TYPE SCENARIO.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014
GFS/ECMWF/GEM ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SLIDING AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AFTER 06Z FRI.
WHILE TIMING WITH THE VARIOUS MODELS ARE COMPARABLE...THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES WITH HOW FAR WEST THE MAIN PIECE OF ENERGY WILL BE. THE
GEM AND GFS CURRENTLY FAVOR TRACKING THE SHORTWAVE INTO MICH...WHICH
WOULD KEEP THE BULK OF ANY RESULTING PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE 00Z EC WAS A BIT FARTHER WEST...AND THUS BRINGS A
SWATH OF PCPN INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER...12Z CAME IN WITH A SOLUTION
MORE LIKE THE GEM/GFS. MODELS HAVE BOUNCED AROUND A BIT WITHIN
THEMSELVES...NOT LENDING A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN WHETHER THE WEST OR
EASTERN SOLUTION IS BETTER. WILL STICK WITH CONSENSUS SOLUTION FOR
NOW.
COLDER AIR RETURNS MID WEEK AND WILL STICK AROUND INTO THE WEEKEND
AS THE REGION COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
EXPECTING AT OR BELOW NORMALS TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014
27.00Z SOUNDINGS FROM KDVN AND KMPX INDICATED A LOT OF DRY AIR
WAS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING AND DESPITE THE ONGOING
ISENTROPIC LIFT...SATURATION HAS YET TO OCCUR. THE 27.00Z NAM AND
27.03Z RAP NOW SUGGEST THAT IF SATURATION IS GOING TO OCCUR...IT
WILL NOT BE UNTIL AFTER 12Z MONDAY. BASED ON THE CURRENT TRENDS
AND THIS MODEL DATA...HAVE TAKEN OUT THE IFR CONDITIONS FOR BOTH
TAFS ALONG WITH ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION TONIGHT. IF
SATURATION CAN OCCUR MONDAY MORNING...THE NAM WOULD STILL SUGGEST
THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR CEILINGS WITH MAYBE A LITTLE BIT
OF DRIZZLE COULD OCCUR AT KLSE AND JUST MVFR CEILINGS AT KRST. THE
RAP IS NOT AS PESSIMISTIC AND WOULD KEEP THINGS VFR BUT FOR
NOW...WILL MAINTAIN SOME FORECAST CONTINUITY AND SHOW A PERIOD OF
SOME MVFR CEILINGS. ONCE THE SURFACE LOW MOVES PAST THE AREA...THE
WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST WITH THE LIFT THROUGH THE
COLUMN BRIEFLY COMING TO AN END. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE CEILINGS TO
LIFT UP TO VFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. A MID LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TROUGH DOES LOOK TO COME THROUGH DURING THE EVENING AND COULD
HELP TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT RAIN IN THE DEFORMATION AREA ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW AND HAVE INCLUDED A VCSH FOR KLSE MONDAY
EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
906 AM MDT MON OCT 27 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 856 AM MDT MON OCT 27 2014
UPDATED THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. REDUCED POPS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS TODAY BASED ON WEBCAMS...OBS...AND LATEST 12Z
GUIDANCE. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWERS TODAY WILL BE OVER THE
SAWATCH RANGE. HAVE LOWERED POPS TO BELOW 10 PERCENT FOR THE SW
MTS AND LOWER ELEVATIONS. E OF THE MTS...HAVE RAISED POPS SLIGHTLY
FOR EL PASO COUNTY...AND ALSO INTRODUCED POPS OVER THE LOWER
ARKANSAS VALLEY THIS EVENING. THERE HAS BEEN GOOD CONSISTENCY OVER
THE PAST COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS AMONG SEVERAL OF THE HIGH RES
MODELS...INCLUDING THE HRRR AND NMM...THAT SCT SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP OVER EL PASO COUNTY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...AND THEN SOME BANDED PRECIP ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE LOWER
ARKANSAS FROM AROUND 00-03Z THIS EVENING. MOISTURE LOOKS
LIMITED...BUT PER SOUNDINGS A SATURATED LAYER FROM ROUGHLY H8 TO
H6 SHOULD DEVELOP IN THIS TIME FRAME...AND SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR
SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY. ROSE
UPDATE ISSUED AT 750 AM MDT MON OCT 27 2014
LOADED IN LATEST OBSERVATIONS. TWEAKED SHORT TERM POP AND SKY
COVER GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 447 AM MDT MON OCT 27 2014
...CENTRAL MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS...COOLER...FREEZE WATCH TONIGHT...
A PACIFIC DISTURBANCE IS TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN COLORADO THIS MORNING. RADAR SHOWS SNOW SHOWERS STREAMING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. WEB CAMS AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS CONFIRM WITH THE FREMONT PASS...MONARCH PASS AND
LEADVILLE CAMS ALL SHOWING SNOW ON THE GROUND AND WET ROADS.
ALSO...THE LEADVILLE ASOS HAS REPORTED LIGHT SNOW AT TIMES.
SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST QUICKLY AND SNOWFALL SHOULD ALREADY BE WINDING
DOWN OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BY MID MORNING. AFTER THAT...SOME
VERY SLIGHT PRECIP CHANCES WILL EXTEND EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT ONLY SPOTTY PRECIP AT
BEST...AND MOSTLY JUST AROUND THE PIKES PEAK REGION. SOME OF THE
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME LIGHT PRECIP DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS THIS EVENING...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT TOO HIGH
IN THIS RIGHT NOW AS IT HAS BEEN INCONSISTENT IN THE MODELS AND THE
AMOUNTS BEING DEPICTED ARE VERY LIGHT. BELIEVE IT IS A MODEL
RESPONSE TO SOME UPPER JET ENERGY MOVING THROUGH DURING THE EVENING
HOURS. WHILE SOME CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO THE JET MOVING
THROUGH...IT WOULD TAKE SOME WORK TO MOISTEN UP THE LOWER LEVELS
ENOUGH TO GET APPRECIABLE PRECIP TO THE SURFACE. SO...MAYBE SOME
LIGHT SPOTTY STUFF...BUT PROBABLY NOTHING TOO WIDESPREAD OR
SIGNIFICANT. AS ALWAYS...HOWEVER...LATER SHIFTS WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR TO SEE HOW THINGS EVOLVE THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY.
ONCE THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT...ATTENTION
WILL TURN TO THE FALLING TEMPERATURES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A FREEZE
ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS...WHERE THERE HAS REALLY NOT
BEEN ONE YET THIS FALL. THE SEVERITY OF THE FREEZE WILL BE
CONTINGENT ON THE AMOUNT OF WIND AND CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE PLAINS
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. IF THERE IS TOO MUCH OF EITHER...NOT SO HARD
OF A FREEZE. HOWEVER...IF THE SKIES CLEAR OUT AND THE WINDS GO
LIGHT...THEN THERE COULD BE A HARD...KILLING...FREEZE. WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE FREEZE WATCH FOR NOW. LATER SHIFTS CAN DECIDE
WHETHER OR NOT TO PULL THE TRIGGER ON A FREEZE WARNING WHEN MORE
DATA COMES IN.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 447 AM MDT MON OCT 27 2014
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...COOL NW FLOW ALOFT SETTLES IN ACROSS THE
REGION FOR TUE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...WITH CLEARING
SKIES EXPECTED. VERY COLD TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE FORECAST AREA
TUE MORNING...BUT ONE WILD CARD WILL BE HOW STRONG WINDS WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE PLAINS IN THE MORNING WHICH WOULD AFFECT TEMPS...SO WILL
MAINTAIN THE FREEZE WATCH AT THIS TIME. AFTER SUCH A COLD
START...MAX TEMPS TUE ARE FORECAST TO ONLY WARM TO AROUND 60F FOR
THE PLAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS. AN UPPER RIDGE THEN BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FOR WED AND THU FOR CONTINUE DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS.
TEMPS WED MORN ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO BE CHILLY...SO ANOTHER
WATCH MAY BE ISSUED THEN.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE
STATE AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH...WHICH WILL SHIFT
THE FLOW ALOFT TO A MORE SW DIRECTION THROUGH THE DAY FRI. THIS WILL
DRAW MOISTURE UP INTO WESTERN COLORADO AND PCPN CHANCES RETURN TO
THE HIGHER TERRAIN BEGINNING AFTER MIDNIGHT FRI NIGHT...AND LASTING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EC AND GFS MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS UPPER
TROUGH WILL ONCE AGAIN FOCUS THE ENERGY MOSTLY ACROSS NORTHERN
CO...SO AT THIS TIME ONLY ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED POPS ARE
WARRANTED FOR THE MTS. THE INCREASING SW FLOW SHOULD HELP TO BOOST
TEMPS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS BACK ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS...WITH MAX
TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE MID 70S FOR THE PLAINS FOR BOTH SAT AND SUN.
MOORE
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 447 AM MDT MON OCT 27 2014
SNOW SHOWERS WITH MVFR/IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS OVER THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 THIS MORNING...WITH LESS ACTIVITY SOUTH
OF 50. THIS ACTIVITY WILL START TO TAPER OFF AROUND 15Z...AND
PRETTY MUCH END BY 18Z. ONLY VERY SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FLIGHT AREA. THERE COULD BE A SPOTTY
MVFR/IFR/LIFR CONDITION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
A SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS MADE ITS WAY SOUTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER AT
12Z AND SHOULD BE INTO NEW MEXICO BY 15Z. NO WEATHER ALONG THE
FRONT BUT A WIND SHIFT FROM THE WSW AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO NNE BEHIND
IT...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT.
FRONT HAS ALREADY MOVED THROUGH KCOS AND KPUB AND WILL NOT IMPACT
KALS. ALL 3 TAF SITES SHOULD REMAIN VFR NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE IS A
SMALL POSSIBILITY THAT EITHER KCOS OR KPUB COULD SEE A BRIEF SHOWER
MOVE THROUGH EITHER THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING...BUT THE ODDS
ARE QUITE LOW SO NO MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
COZ085>089-093>098.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...LW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
632 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2014
.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS IS BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT A BAND/LINE OF -SHRA WILL AFFECT
KOKC AND KOUN 20-22Z...AS WELL AS POSSIBLY KLAW...KPNC...KHBR...
AND KHBR 17-21Z. THUS...ADDED MENTION. GUSTY WINDS MAY OCCUR WITH
-SHRA. TS IS POSSIBLE AS WELL BUT DID NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND BRING A WIND SHIFT FROM THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTH. THIS FRONT WILL REACH
NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AROUND 16Z...THEN NEAR KOKC AND KLAW
00-02Z...AND KSPS 02-05Z.
ADDITIONAL ISO-SCT SHRA/TSRA MAY OCCUR AFTER 00Z EAST OF KEND-
KLTS...BUT DID NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.
MBS
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2014/
DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST CHALLENGE OF THE DAY IS DETERMINING RAIN CHANCES TODAY
AND TONIGHT. HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE RAIN CHANCES FORECAST THROUGH
TONIGHT.
NEAR RECORD HEAT WILL AGAIN OCCUR TODAY SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT...
MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF A CLINTON TO PONCA CITY LINE. USED A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE HIGHS...GENERALLY TOWARDS THE COOLER SIDE NORTH OF THE
FRONT AND WARM SIDE SOUTH OF THE FRONT.
THIS MORNING...INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL OCCUR. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...PERHAPS SLIGHTLY
FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. WENT WITH THE HRRR FOR COLD
FRONT TIMING TODAY.
THIS AFTERNOON...A BAND OR LINE OF HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP NEAR OR JUST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. THE
LATEST TWO RUNS OF THE HRRR INDICATED THIS POTENTIAL. SINCE
FORCING IS RATHER STRONG...THINK THE HRRR SOLUTION SEEMS
REASONABLE...SO ADDED 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCES NEAR CLINTON... TO
OKLAHOMA CITY...TO STILLWATER. IF THIS MATERIALIZES...GUSTY WINDS
AND BRIEF DOWNPOURS WOULD BE POSSIBLE. NOT SURE THIS WILL OCCUR AS
OTHER MODELS GENERALLY DID NOT DEPICT ANY QPF. THERE IS AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE A FEW ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS FROM DAYTIME HEATING...BUT THIS
SEEMS DOUBTFUL AS THE CAP SHOULD HOLD.
TONIGHT...ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP...GENERALLY ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT. THESE WOULD BE CAPABLE OF HAIL...POSSIBLY UP
TO QUARTERS...THOUGH OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL REMAINS LOW...AND
THE HIGHER STORM CHANCES MAY BE ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND POINTS
EAST. KEPT RAIN CHANCES 20 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE EAST OF A ENID TO
ALTUS LINE WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES EAST OF SHAWNEE. ANY RAINFALL
WILL LIKELY REMAIN LIGHT AND SPOTTY...THOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT A EAST WEST BAND OF OVER 0.50 INCH SOMEWHERE NEAR AND
EAST OF I-35. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH AND THROUGH THE
AREA.
TUESDAY...A FEW ELEVATED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY LINGER NEAR THE
RED RIVER EAST OF I-35. OTHERWISE...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA. USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE HIGHS...WHICH WILL
BE SEASONABLE FOR LATE OCTOBER.
TUESDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
ARE EXPECTED. PATCHY FROST MAY DEVELOP IN A FEW RURAL LOCATIONS...
MAINLY IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE
RED RIVER CLOSE TO AND EAST OF I-35.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS. KEPT LOW
CHANCES FOR RAIN OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS ON THURSDAY AS THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE RETURN FOR RAIN
DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE
OUT PATCHY FROST THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING IN RURAL
LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE COOLEST ON FRIDAY. MOISTURE
MAY INCREASE BY SUNDAY.
MBS
CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS THE AREA. HERE ARE
THE RECORDS.
TODAY OCTOBER 27
OKLAHOMA CITY 86 1922
WICHITA FALLS 91 1938
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 85 52 70 44 / 30 20 0 0
HOBART OK 85 50 71 42 / 20 10 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 90 56 74 47 / 0 20 0 0
GAGE OK 75 41 68 35 / 10 10 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 82 46 70 39 / 20 30 0 0
DURANT OK 84 60 72 50 / 0 40 20 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
03/99/17
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1158 AM MDT MON OCT 27 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 856 AM MDT MON OCT 27 2014
UPDATED THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. REDUCED POPS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS TODAY BASED ON WEBCAMS...OBS...AND LATEST 12Z
GUIDANCE. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWERS TODAY WILL BE OVER THE
SAWATCH RANGE. HAVE LOWERED POPS TO BELOW 10 PERCENT FOR THE SW
MTS AND LOWER ELEVATIONS. E OF THE MTS...HAVE RAISED POPS SLIGHTLY
FOR EL PASO COUNTY...AND ALSO INTRODUCED POPS OVER THE LOWER
ARKANSAS VALLEY THIS EVENING. THERE HAS BEEN GOOD CONSISTENCY OVER
THE PAST COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS AMONG SEVERAL OF THE HIGH RES
MODELS...INCLUDING THE HRRR AND NMM...THAT SCT SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP OVER EL PASO COUNTY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...AND THEN SOME BANDED PRECIP ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE LOWER
ARKANSAS FROM AROUND 00-03Z THIS EVENING. MOISTURE LOOKS
LIMITED...BUT PER SOUNDINGS A SATURATED LAYER FROM ROUGHLY H8 TO
H6 SHOULD DEVELOP IN THIS TIME FRAME...AND SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR
SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY. ROSE
UPDATE ISSUED AT 750 AM MDT MON OCT 27 2014
LOADED IN LATEST OBSERVATIONS. TWEAKED SHORT TERM POP AND SKY
COVER GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 447 AM MDT MON OCT 27 2014
...CENTRAL MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS...COOLER...FREEZE WATCH TONIGHT...
A PACIFIC DISTURBANCE IS TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN COLORADO THIS MORNING. RADAR SHOWS SNOW SHOWERS STREAMING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. WEB CAMS AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS CONFIRM WITH THE FREMONT PASS...MONARCH PASS AND
LEADVILLE CAMS ALL SHOWING SNOW ON THE GROUND AND WET ROADS.
ALSO...THE LEADVILLE ASOS HAS REPORTED LIGHT SNOW AT TIMES.
SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST QUICKLY AND SNOWFALL SHOULD ALREADY BE WINDING
DOWN OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BY MID MORNING. AFTER THAT...SOME
VERY SLIGHT PRECIP CHANCES WILL EXTEND EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT ONLY SPOTTY PRECIP AT
BEST...AND MOSTLY JUST AROUND THE PIKES PEAK REGION. SOME OF THE
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME LIGHT PRECIP DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS THIS EVENING...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT TOO HIGH
IN THIS RIGHT NOW AS IT HAS BEEN INCONSISTENT IN THE MODELS AND THE
AMOUNTS BEING DEPICTED ARE VERY LIGHT. BELIEVE IT IS A MODEL
RESPONSE TO SOME UPPER JET ENERGY MOVING THROUGH DURING THE EVENING
HOURS. WHILE SOME CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO THE JET MOVING
THROUGH...IT WOULD TAKE SOME WORK TO MOISTEN UP THE LOWER LEVELS
ENOUGH TO GET APPRECIABLE PRECIP TO THE SURFACE. SO...MAYBE SOME
LIGHT SPOTTY STUFF...BUT PROBABLY NOTHING TOO WIDESPREAD OR
SIGNIFICANT. AS ALWAYS...HOWEVER...LATER SHIFTS WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR TO SEE HOW THINGS EVOLVE THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY.
ONCE THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT...ATTENTION
WILL TURN TO THE FALLING TEMPERATURES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A FREEZE
ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS...WHERE THERE HAS REALLY NOT
BEEN ONE YET THIS FALL. THE SEVERITY OF THE FREEZE WILL BE
CONTINGENT ON THE AMOUNT OF WIND AND CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE PLAINS
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. IF THERE IS TOO MUCH OF EITHER...NOT SO HARD
OF A FREEZE. HOWEVER...IF THE SKIES CLEAR OUT AND THE WINDS GO
LIGHT...THEN THERE COULD BE A HARD...KILLING...FREEZE. WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE FREEZE WATCH FOR NOW. LATER SHIFTS CAN DECIDE
WHETHER OR NOT TO PULL THE TRIGGER ON A FREEZE WARNING WHEN MORE
DATA COMES IN.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 447 AM MDT MON OCT 27 2014
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...COOL NW FLOW ALOFT SETTLES IN ACROSS THE
REGION FOR TUE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...WITH CLEARING
SKIES EXPECTED. VERY COLD TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE FORECAST AREA
TUE MORNING...BUT ONE WILD CARD WILL BE HOW STRONG WINDS WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE PLAINS IN THE MORNING WHICH WOULD AFFECT TEMPS...SO WILL
MAINTAIN THE FREEZE WATCH AT THIS TIME. AFTER SUCH A COLD
START...MAX TEMPS TUE ARE FORECAST TO ONLY WARM TO AROUND 60F FOR
THE PLAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS. AN UPPER RIDGE THEN BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FOR WED AND THU FOR CONTINUE DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS.
TEMPS WED MORN ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO BE CHILLY...SO ANOTHER
WATCH MAY BE ISSUED THEN.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE
STATE AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH...WHICH WILL SHIFT
THE FLOW ALOFT TO A MORE SW DIRECTION THROUGH THE DAY FRI. THIS WILL
DRAW MOISTURE UP INTO WESTERN COLORADO AND PCPN CHANCES RETURN TO
THE HIGHER TERRAIN BEGINNING AFTER MIDNIGHT FRI NIGHT...AND LASTING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EC AND GFS MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS UPPER
TROUGH WILL ONCE AGAIN FOCUS THE ENERGY MOSTLY ACROSS NORTHERN
CO...SO AT THIS TIME ONLY ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED POPS ARE
WARRANTED FOR THE MTS. THE INCREASING SW FLOW SHOULD HELP TO BOOST
TEMPS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS BACK ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS...WITH MAX
TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE MID 70S FOR THE PLAINS FOR BOTH SAT AND SUN.
MOORE
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM MDT MON OCT 27 2014
MAIN AVN CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS ALONG WITH MVFR
CIGS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE. THIS WILL BE MOST LIKELY AT KOS AFTER
20Z AND LASTING THROUGH 06Z. COULD ALSO SEE A FEW SHOWERS AT KCOS
OR VC KCOS. POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP AT KPUB WILL BE MAXIMIZED FROM
21Z THROUGH 04Z...BUT PROB IS TOO LOW TO MENTION EXPLICITLY IN THE
TAF. CIGS SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER 06Z AND LEAD TO VFR FOR THE
BALANCE OF TUESDAY. ROSE
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
COZ085>089-093>098.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...ROSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
403 PM EDT MON OCT 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...AS A MILDER AIR
MASS BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BRIEFLY BE ABOVE
NORMAL ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE A COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID WEEK PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT...A RATHER DELIGHTFUL LATE AUTUMN AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE REGION AS AMPLE AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE HAS RESULTED IN
AFTERNOON HIGHS WELL INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60F FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS. CI/CS CLOUD COVER WAS ADVECTING INTO THE REGION AS A
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. NEAR TERM
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THIS WARM FRONT BECOMES INCREASINGLY
MORE ACTIVE OVERNIGHT AS ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOW LEVEL JET FAVOR
CLOUDS NOT ONLY INCREASING BUT THE CHANCE FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION.
THE LATEST HRRR REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS SUGGEST SHOWERS MAY IMPACT
LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF I90 OVERNIGHT. UPSTREAM LIGHTNING
ACTIVITY IS CLOSELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UPSTREAM OF
THE CWFA. SHOWALTER VALUES OVERNIGHT ARE INITIALLY NEAR 0C ACROSS
WESTERN/CENTRAL NY AND THOSE VALUES GRADUALLY FILL AS IT
APPROACHES OUR REGION. AT THIS TIME...WE WILL WITHHOLD THE MENTION
OF THUNDER AS WE MONITOR UPSTREAM TRENDS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AND INCREASING CLOUD
COVER WILL BE A BIT MILDER AS WE WILL TREND A BIT WARMER THAN
GUIDANCE /CLOSER THE THE LAMP/LAV HOURLY GUIDANCE/.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH AS OUR REGION BECOMES
WELL ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR. SHOULD BE A SPLENDID DAY
UNFOLDING AS STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT H850 TEMPS
TO BETWEEN +11C TO +15C. COMBINE THAT WITH SUNSHINE AND
DOWNSLOPING...VALLEY LOCATIONS COULD ONCE AGAIN OBSERVE NEAR OR
JUST A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE 70F WITH 60S ELSEWHERE /AND BASED ON
TEMPS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY AFTERNOON...THIS COULD EASILY BE
OBTAINED/.
TUESDAY NIGHT...AS THE PREVIOUS EXCELLENT AFD...VARIABLE TIMING
REMAINS FROM THE NCEP MODEL GUIDANCE WITH THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A COUPLE RUMBLES OF THUNDER WITH THE COLD FRONT. THERE IS
DECENT LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH THE FRONT AS S/SW LLJ OF 40-50
KTS WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION SOME GULF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE.
LATEST TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE ARE SUGGESTING THE FROPA WILL BE A
BIT SLOWER TO CLEAR THE REGION. UPPER FLOW REMAINS POSITIVELY
TILTED WITH A WEAK SURFACE PERTURBATION/REFLECTING DEVELOPING OVER
CENTRAL NY OVERNIGHT. SO WE WILL SLOW DOWN POPS/WX GRIDS AND KEEP
MOST OF THE NIGHT UNDER SCT-LIKELY POPS. LOWS TEMPS WILL BE A BIT
BALMY IN THE LOWER TO M50S...EXCEPT SOME U40S OVER THE SRN
DACKS.
WEDNESDAY...AS A SLOWER FROPA IS EXPECTED...WE WILL SLOW DOWN THE
EXIT OF THIS FRONT AND KEEP THE MENTION OF POPS/WX FOR THE
EASTERN 1/2 OF THE CWFA IN THE MORNING. MEANWHILE...SLOW ADVECTING
COLDER AIR WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE DAY. AS THIS COOLER AIR MOVES
ACROSS THE WARM WATERS OF THE GREAT LAKES...AMPLE STRATUS WILL
REDEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY. THESE VARIABLES WILL RESULT IN A COOLER
DAY THAN TUESDAYS WITH HIGHS AROUND 60F FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND
50S FOR MOST OTHER LOCATIONS /SOME UPPER 40S FOR THE DACKS/.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT CLEARS THE REGION WITH
STRONGER PUSH COLD ADVECTION DURING THE EVENING HOURS. H850 TEMPS
FALL TO 0C ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES TO -4C NORTH AND WEST OF
ALBANY. THIS WILL TRIGGER SOME ISOLD LAKE EFFECT/INDUCED SHOWERS
OVER THE SRN DACKS...SOME OF WHICH MAY MIX WITH SNOW. SOME LAKE
EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO THE WEST-CENTRAL MOHAWK
VALLEY OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE M30S TO L40S FOR MOST OF THE
REGION.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OFF MAINLY QUIET AND MAINLY AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST TO OUR SOUTH THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE AIR WILL BE COOL ENOUGH AND BREEZY ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST
SOME LAKE ENHANCED PRECIPITATION POSSIBLY COMING OFF LAKE
ONTARIO...MAINLY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY.
TEMPERATURES LOOK WARM ENOUGH FOR ANY PRECIPITATION TO BE MAINLY
RAIN WITH ANY SNOW CONFINED TO THE HIGHEST TERRAIN. ANY
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ON THURSDAY WILL BE LIGHT.
MOST OTHER AREAS SHOULD BE DRY WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE (MORE SUN THE
FURTHER SOUTH ONE GOES). TEMPERATURES WILL SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 50S ALBANY SOUTHWARD...BUT ONLY IN THE 40S TO
AROUND 50 FURTHER NORTH AND ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE MAINLY IN THE 30S...TO AROUND 40
LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION.
BY FRIDAY...AN IMPRESSIVE CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING
FROM OUR WEST AND ALOFT...A NEW TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CONUS.
RIGHT NOW...MOST OF FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH
AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS
DEVELOPING LATE IN THE DAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 50 IN THE VALLEYS...40S HIGHER
TERRAIN.
SHOWERS LOOK TO INCREASE ACROSS OUR REGION FRIDAY AS ENERGY FROM THE
CLIPPER TRANSFORMS INTO AN OCEAN STORM BY EARLY SATURDAY. ALOFT AN
UPPER AIR LOW WILL BE CUTTING TO EAST OUR WELL...WHICH WILL CAPTURE
THE SURFACE STORM TO THE EAST OF CAPE COD.
ALL THE 12Z GUIDANCE HAD THIS SURFACE STORM DEVELOPING TOO FAR EAST
TO BRING A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO OUR REGION. HOWEVER...THERE COULD
BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT...WHEN COMBINED THE DEVELOPING TROUGH
DRIVING ENOUGH COLD AIR INTO THE REGION...TO PRODUCE SOME SNOW
ACROSS REGION SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. IT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE
THAT SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW COULD TAKE PLACE...MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS BUT EVEN VALLEY AREAS COULD SEE A LEAST A
LITTLE.
KEEP IN MIND...THIS STORM IS POTENTIALLY FOUR DAYS OUT...AND IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THIS STORM COULD DEVELOP A LITTLE FURTHER WEST. IT
DEFINITELY BEARS WATCHING AS ANY POSSIBLE EARLY SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION COULD PRODUCE PROBLEMS AS MANY TREES FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION SOUTH STILL HAVE A FAIR AMOUNT OF LEAVES ON THEM.
FOR NOW...CONTINUED WITH 40-50 POPS ACROSS OUR REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH AGAIN THE BEST CHANCES FOR SNOW OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT CHANCES FOR AT LEAST SNOW SHOWERS EXIST
EVERYWHERE BY SATURDAY NIGHT.
STORM OR NOT...IT LOOKS AS IF THE COLDEST AIR MASS SINCE LAST APRIL
WILL BE USHERED IN SATURDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. BY
SUNDAY...THE OCEAN STORM LOOKS TO BE SITUATED NEAR NOVA
SCOTIA...PRODUCING A BRISK WIND FLOW. THERE MIGHT BE SOME LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS...BUT THE FLOW AT POINT LOOKED MORE
NORTHWESTERLY (THAN WESTERLY) THIS WOULD IMPLY ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW
BANDS WOULD BE FRAGMENTED ACROSS MAINLY THE ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK
VALLEY ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...IT WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD THEY TAKE PLACE.
THE ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE ON MONDAY.
LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 30S NORTH AND WEST OF
ALBANY ON SATURDAY...40-45 ALBANY SOUTHWARD. TEMPERATURES WILL DIVE
DOWN INTO THE 20S ACROSS MOST PLACES SATURDAY NIGHT. ON
SUNDAY...HIGHS WILL GENERALLY ONLY BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER
THAN SATURDAY. BY MONDAY...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO MODERATE BACK INTO
THE 40S...TO AROUND 50 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD
COUNTY.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF
PERIOD ENDING 18Z TUESDAY. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TO START THE PERIOD
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. THEN HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. CIGS MAY BRIEFLY LOWER TO AROUND 4000-5000 FT AGL AROUND
12Z TUESDAY...BUT SHOULD RISE RATHER QUICKLY ONCE THE WARM FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BE WEST-NORTHWEST AROUND 3-8 KTS...THEN BECOMING NEAR
CALM TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.
A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH MOST AREAS
SOUTH OF I90 REMAINING DRY. A MILD AND DRY DAY SETTING UP FOR
TUESDAY WITH A SOUTHERLY BREEZE OF 10 TO 18 MPH AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. A COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES.
A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND TONIGHT...BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH ARE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY.
THE RH VALUES WILL RECOVERY OVERNIGHT TO BETWEEN 80 AND 100
PERCENT...THEN DROP INTO THE 40-60 PERCENTILE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK.
RIVERS FLOWS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THE NEXT FEW DAYS DESPITE
THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL WILL BE IN THE
TENTH TO HALF OF AN INCH RANGE.
DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR MOST OF THE HSA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATER FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. SOME THE
PRECIPITATION MAY BE RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW DEPENDING ON THE
EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM/WASULA
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
252 PM MDT MON OCT 27 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM MDT MON OCT 27 2014
UPPER FLOW WILL BE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SUBSIDENCE WILL PRODUCE
DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FA THROUGH TUESDAY. POPS FOR TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY WILL BE NIL.
RADAR RETURNS ACROSS THE FA TODAY HAVE BEEN VERY LIGHT WITH METARS
REPORTING HIGH CLOUD BASES AND NO PRECIPITATION. THE HRRR SHOWS A
BAND OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER AN AREA IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES
THIS EVENING SO WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SPRINKLES THERE.
THIS IS AN AREA WHERE THERE IS FRONTOGENESIS BUT MOISTURE IS LIMITED.
THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE IF THERE WILL BE A HARD FREEZE TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL DECREASE AND BECOME LIGHT FROM THE WEST ALONG WITH
CLEARING. MOST OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE GIVES LOW TEMPERATURES AROUND
30 IN EASTERN COLORADO WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
REST OF THE FA. THERE IS A LEAST ONE GUIDANCE THAT SHOWS
TEMPERATURES AROUND 29 DEGREES IN EASTERN COLORADO AND WITH THE MET
SHOWING 21 DEGREES FOR LIC, CANNOT RULE OUT A HARD FREEZE IN WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN COLORADO ZONES. PLAN TO UPGRADE THE FREEZE
WATCH TO A WARNING IN EASTERN COLORADO AND THEN GO WITH A FROST
ADVISORY ACROSS THE REST OF THE FA. SEE UPDATED HIGHLIGHTS BELOW.
MAX TEMPERATURES TUESDAY SHOULD WARM TO THE LOWER 60S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM MDT MON OCT 27 2014
FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...QUIET WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE WEEK BEFORE THE NEXT WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH.
MAIN CONCERNS AS IT STANDS RIGHT NOW IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
WINDS ON SATURDAY.
BEGINNING WITH TUESDAY NIGHT...COLD LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
ONCE AGAIN. FOR THIS NIGHT...MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE FROST ONCE
AGAIN BUT LOCATIONS AROUND MCCOOK...OBERLIN AND NORTON MAY
APPROACH FREEZE WARNING CRITERIA...28 DEGREES OR LESS. WITH THE
CURRENT FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES OUT...WILL NOT ISSUE ADDITIONAL
HAZARD HEADLINES BUT THEY MAY BE NEEDED FROM TONIGHTS SHIFT OR
TOMORROWS DAY SHIFT.
FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
TRANSLATES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...LEAVING THE REGION PRECIPITATION-
FREE. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES OVER THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES INTO
THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY...FORCING A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
THROUGH. THIS WILL LEAD TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY.
WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S BEFORE
COOLING OFF THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOW DEWPOINTS SHOULD REMAIN FOR
LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM MCCOOK NEBRASKA TO TRIBUNE
KANSAS...RESULTING IN RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE 15-20 PERCENT RANGE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS ARE FORECAST SO CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS. THE
ONLY QUESTION THAT REMAINS IS HOW ACTIVE WILL WE BE? MODELS ARE
INDICATING A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES
AND EJECTING OVER THE PLAINS BUT DISAGREE ON TIMING/MOVEMENT. WE ARE
GETTING INTO THE SEASON WHERE THESE TYPES OF TROUGHS NEED TO BE
MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER DEVELOPMENT. THE CANADIAN
MODEL DEVELOPS A STRONG MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE SATURDAY OVER NORTHERN
NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA BEFORE HEADING INTO NORTH DAKOTA. THE GFS
INDICATES A SECOND...STRONGER LOBE OF ENERGY MOVING ACROSS OUR
REGION WITH POTENTIAL FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION ON
THE BACK SIDE. THESE TWO SOLUTIONS RAISE THE ALERT FLAG ON A
POTENTIAL SECOND SNOW OF THE YEAR. GLANCING AT THE TEMPERATURES...IT
APPEARS TOO WARM FOR SNOW AT THIS TIME. THE EUROPEAN MODEL INDICATES
A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS WELL...BUT WELL TO THE NORTH...
BEGINNING IN COLORADO/WYOMING BEFORE MOVING NORTH TOWARDS CANADA.
NEEDLESS TO SAY...THIS SYSTEM NEEDS TO BE MONITORED BUT FORECAST
GUIDANCE VARIANCE IS TOO GREAT TO MAKE ANY DEFINITIVE PREDICTIONS ON
WHETHER A LARGER SYSTEM IMPACTS THE TRI-STATE AREA.
ONE THING ALL GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
WINDS SATURDAY. WITH A DEEP LEE TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE AND A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT...A RESULTANT STRENGTHENING
OF THE WIND FIELD IS GUARANTEED. THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS ARE
MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE WINDS AND SHOW POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
GUSTS...POSSIBLY 45-55 MPH. WIND FIELDS AT 1 KM AND 700 MB INDICATE
THERE COULD BE SOME GUSTS EVEN STRONGER BUT WAS NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH
TO PLACE MENTION OF THIS IN PRODUCTS YET.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT MON OCT 27 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KGLD AND KMCK FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. METARS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME BROKEN CLOUDS
AROUND 7KFT THIS AFTERNOON AS DYNAMICS FROM THE UPPER TROUGH MOVE
THROUGH. OTHERWISE CLEARING IS EXPECTED AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT MDT /1 AM CDT/ TONIGHT TO 10 AM MDT
/11 AM CDT/ TUESDAY FOR KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
CO...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM MDT TUESDAY FOR
COZ090>092.
NE...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT MDT /1 AM CDT/ TONIGHT TO 10 AM MDT
/11 AM CDT/ TUESDAY FOR NEZ079>081.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...FS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1244 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS...WIND SHIFT WITH COLD FRONT OCCURRED EARLIER THIS
MORNING AT WWR AND GAG. THE FRONT IS MAKING DECENT PROGRESS TO THE
SOUTHEAST...ESPECIALLY IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. CURRENT HRRR WAS
FOLLOWED FOR COLD FRONT TIMING...WHICH MAY BE AN HOUR OR SO SLOW.
WIND SHIFT AT OKC/OUN SHOULD BE AROUND 23-00Z. HIGH CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST WITHIN A 70-100KT FLOW. BEST CHANCE
FOR ELEVATED SHOWERS/STORMS LATER THIS EVENING IN CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA (OKC/OUN TAFS).
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2014/
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS IS BELOW.
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT A BAND/LINE OF -SHRA WILL AFFECT
KOKC AND KOUN 20-22Z...AS WELL AS POSSIBLY KLAW...KPNC...KHBR...
AND KHBR 17-21Z. THUS...ADDED MENTION. GUSTY WINDS MAY OCCUR WITH
-SHRA. TS IS POSSIBLE AS WELL BUT DID NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND BRING A WIND SHIFT FROM THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTH. THIS FRONT WILL REACH
NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AROUND 16Z...THEN NEAR KOKC AND KLAW
00-02Z...AND KSPS 02-05Z.
ADDITIONAL ISO-SCT SHRA/TSRA MAY OCCUR AFTER 00Z EAST OF KEND-
KLTS...BUT DID NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.
MBS
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2014/
DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST CHALLENGE OF THE DAY IS DETERMINING RAIN CHANCES TODAY
AND TONIGHT. HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE RAIN CHANCES FORECAST THROUGH
TONIGHT.
NEAR RECORD HEAT WILL AGAIN OCCUR TODAY SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT...
MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF A CLINTON TO PONCA CITY LINE. USED A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE HIGHS...GENERALLY TOWARDS THE COOLER SIDE NORTH OF THE
FRONT AND WARM SIDE SOUTH OF THE FRONT.
THIS MORNING...INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL OCCUR. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...PERHAPS SLIGHTLY
FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. WENT WITH THE HRRR FOR COLD
FRONT TIMING TODAY.
THIS AFTERNOON...A BAND OR LINE OF HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP NEAR OR JUST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. THE
LATEST TWO RUNS OF THE HRRR INDICATED THIS POTENTIAL. SINCE
FORCING IS RATHER STRONG...THINK THE HRRR SOLUTION SEEMS
REASONABLE...SO ADDED 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCES NEAR CLINTON... TO
OKLAHOMA CITY...TO STILLWATER. IF THIS MATERIALIZES...GUSTY WINDS
AND BRIEF DOWNPOURS WOULD BE POSSIBLE. NOT SURE THIS WILL OCCUR AS
OTHER MODELS GENERALLY DID NOT DEPICT ANY QPF. THERE IS AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE A FEW ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS FROM DAYTIME HEATING...BUT THIS
SEEMS DOUBTFUL AS THE CAP SHOULD HOLD.
TONIGHT...ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP...GENERALLY ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT. THESE WOULD BE CAPABLE OF HAIL...POSSIBLY UP
TO QUARTERS...THOUGH OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL REMAINS LOW...AND
THE HIGHER STORM CHANCES MAY BE ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND POINTS
EAST. KEPT RAIN CHANCES 20 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE EAST OF A ENID TO
ALTUS LINE WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES EAST OF SHAWNEE. ANY RAINFALL
WILL LIKELY REMAIN LIGHT AND SPOTTY...THOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT A EAST WEST BAND OF OVER 0.50 INCH SOMEWHERE NEAR AND
EAST OF I-35. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH AND THROUGH THE
AREA.
TUESDAY...A FEW ELEVATED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY LINGER NEAR THE
RED RIVER EAST OF I-35. OTHERWISE...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA. USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE HIGHS...WHICH WILL
BE SEASONABLE FOR LATE OCTOBER.
TUESDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
ARE EXPECTED. PATCHY FROST MAY DEVELOP IN A FEW RURAL LOCATIONS...
MAINLY IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE
RED RIVER CLOSE TO AND EAST OF I-35.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS. KEPT LOW
CHANCES FOR RAIN OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS ON THURSDAY AS THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE RETURN FOR RAIN
DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE
OUT PATCHY FROST THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING IN RURAL
LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE COOLEST ON FRIDAY. MOISTURE
MAY INCREASE BY SUNDAY.
MBS
CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS THE AREA. HERE ARE
THE RECORDS.
TODAY OCTOBER 27
OKLAHOMA CITY 86 1922
WICHITA FALLS 91 1938
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 52 70 44 73 / 20 0 0 0
HOBART OK 50 71 42 73 / 10 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 56 74 47 75 / 20 0 0 0
GAGE OK 41 68 35 73 / 10 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 46 70 39 72 / 30 0 0 0
DURANT OK 60 72 50 73 / 40 20 10 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$