Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 10/26/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
305 AM MST FRI OCT 24 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS NORTHEASTWARD...WITH NEAR-RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE TODAY
AND SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. A COOLING TREND IS THEN
EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
INLAND INTO THE GREAT BASIN...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK TO NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS. A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED
BY WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES REESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
WESTERN STATES.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
LATEST RAP ANALYSIS PLACES THE MID-UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE NEAR
PHOENIX WITH HIGH CLOUDS DISPLACED WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION.
A WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
AS THE RIDGE BUILDS NORTHWARD WHILE SLIDING EASTWARD. PHOENIX RECORD
HIGH OF 96 DEGREES IS IN JEOPARDY TODAY...THOUGH THE DAILY RECORD OF
105 DEGREES IN YUMA IS WELL OUT OF REACH.
SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY BETWEEN THE RIDGE IN
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND A PACIFIC TROUGH MOVING INTO THE GREAT
BASIN. MODELS ARE ALSO INDICATING AN INNOCUOUS UPPER LOW WILL BE
PULLED NORTHWARD INTO AZ. MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE AN
INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL MOISTURE. GFS IVT IS STRONG ENOUGH TO SUGGEST
SOME POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED CLOUDS AND SPRINKLES MAINLY LATE IN THE
DAY...THOUGH THE CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN REMAINS NEGLIGIBLE. NET
DECREASE IN HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES COMBINED WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER
WILL RESULT IN COOLING THROUGH THE COLUMN...EXCEPT BELOW 900 MB
WHERE THE WELL-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST. LATEST
FORECAST OF 95 DEGREES IN PHOENIX REPRESENTS A SLIGHT DECREASE FROM
24 HOURS AGO...THOUGH IT IS CONCEIVABLE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN
REACH THE RECORD OF 96 DEGREES FOR THE DAY.
DISCERNIBLE COOLING TREND WILL BEGIN SUNDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE ROCKIES. COOLEST DAY WILL LIKELY BE
MONDAY AS A SOUTHERN STREAM PACIFIC TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE
REGION. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY DROP TO NEAR OR EVEN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
WARMING TREND IS LIKELY BEGINNING TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. DISTINCT
DIFFERENCE IN THE OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF IS APPARENT BY MIDWEEK
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. LATEST ECMWF IS FAVORED GIVEN ITS STRONG
PERFORMANCE OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS AND RELATIVELY LOW ENSEMBLE
SPREAD. CONSEQUENTLY...FORECAST TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN INCREASED
OWING TO ANOTHER ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES.
POPS REMAIN NIL THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL KEEP SKIES MAINLY CLEAR
AT ALL THE TAF SITES THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS TO REMAIN ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...MAINLY AOB 6 KTS...GENERALLY FOLLOWING THE USUAL DIURNAL
TRENDS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
DATE PHOENIX
---- -------
FRI OCT 24 96 IN 2007
SAT OCT 25 96 IN 1990
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH INCREASED DAYTIME WINDS ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVES
OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL TAKE PLACE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 20 MPH...WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER RIDGES AND UPPER SLOPES.
LIGHTER WINDS WILL THEN PREVAIL MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS SLOWLY OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL GENERALLY RANGE IN THE TEENS ACROSS
THE LOWER DESERTS EACH DAY...WITH HIGHER VALUES IN THE
MOUNTAINS...FOLLOWED BY GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERY AREA-WIDE.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
CLIMATE...MO/HIRSCH
AVIATION...PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...PERCHA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RENO NV
755 PM PDT SAT OCT 25 2014
.UPDATE...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING INTO CA NOW. THE SFC FRONT HAS PASSED
THROUGH MOST OF THE REGION AND WE HAVE GOTTEN INTO THE COLDER AIR.
WITH THE FRONT TO EAST MOST OF OUR STRONGEST WINDS HAVE DECREASED
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. A PLUME OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE UPPER
TROUGH IS STILL CREATING SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER
NRN CA. UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES FROM THE TAHOE BASIN
NORTHWARD IS HELPING DEVELOP HEAVIER PCPN IN SOME SPOTS BUT IT IS
NOT WIDESPREAD. UNDER THE HEAVIEST PCPN SNOW LEVELS ARE LIKELY TO
DROP TO AROUND 6500 FEET LATER TONIGHT WITH AN INCH OR TWO OF
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE AT THE HIGHER PASSES FROM ECHO SUMMIT
NORTH.
WITH THE DECREASE IN WINDS HAVE OPTED TO CANCEL THE WIND
ADVISORIES EARLY...EXCEPT THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR TAHOE. THERE
THE BUOYS ARE STARTING TO INCREASE AGAIN. THIS WILL RUN THROUGH 11
PM. FOR PYRAMID LAKE THE OBSERVATION AT ANAHO ISLAND STILL SHOWS
GUSTS CLOSE TO 50 MPH...BUT THE LAKE IS CLOSED AFTER SUNSET SO
WILL NOT ISSUE A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS. THERE WILL LIKELY BE
A FEW WIND PRONE AREAS WITH GUSTS TOPPING 45 MPH FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...BUT THESE WILL BE VERY ISOLATED IN NATURE.
RH VALUES ARE INCREASING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS WELL. ALTHOUGH
WIND GUSTS IN SOME AREAS MAY CONTINUE ABOVE 30 MPH...THE STRONGEST
GUSTS HAVE PASSED AND THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY WILL SPELL AN END
TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THEREFORE...THE RED FLAG WILL
BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 8 PM. 20
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 PM PDT SAT OCT 25 2014/
SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INLAND TONIGHT, BRINGING GUSTY WINDS ALONG
WITH LIGHT RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. COOLER CONDITIONS WITH A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED EARLY SUNDAY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.
MILD AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN NEXT WEEK, WITH A CHANCE OF
RAIN AND SNOW WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES BY NEXT WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM...
COLD FRONTAL PRECIPITATION BAND HAS MOVED INTO WESTERN NEVADA AND
THE EASTERN SIERRA AROUND LAKE TAHOE AND ALPINE COUNTY. THE
PRECIPITATION HAS FALLEN APART AS PROGGED BY MODELS NORTH OF RENO.
HOWEVER, PRECIPITATION HELD TOGETHER BETTER THAN EXPECTED FOR RENO
SOUTH TO MINDEN MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 395. NEAR THE
CREST WEST OF LAKE TAHOE THE PRECIPITATION WAS HEAVY ENOUGH TO
BRIEFLY DRIVE SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO BETWEEN 6500 AND 7000 FEET AND
CAUSE SLUSHY ACCUMULATIONS ON INTERSTATE 80 (THAT HAS SINCE MELTED).
OUTSIDE OF THE BRIEF LOWERING, SNOW LEVELS ARE RUNNING BETWEEN
ABOUT 7500 AND 8500 FEET. AS SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR ALOFT FILTERS IN
WITH THIS SYSTEM`S TROUGH AXIS TONIGHT AND PRECIPITATION TURNS
SHOWERY SNOW LEVELS WILL SLOWLY FALL TO AS LOW AS 6000-6500 FEET
ALTHOUGH MOST PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF BY THEN. IN ANY CASE,
BURSTS OF SNOW SHOWERS COULD CERTAINLY CAUSE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
AND SLICK ROADS AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS FROM TAHOE NORTH OVERNIGHT.
WIND-WISE, SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO BETWEEN 40
AND 60 MPH WERE WIDESPREAD TODAY. WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO FALL OFF
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BUT ARE STILL HOWLING OUT IN THE BASIN AND
RANGE WITH STRONG WEST WINDS DRIVING A LARGE AREA OF DUST OFF THE
CARSON SINK (EASTERN PERSHING/CHURCHILL COUNTIES).
FOR TONIGHT, THERE IS ONE MORE DISTURBANCE ROUNDING THE BASE OF
THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH. AT THIS TIME, IT IS FIRING UP NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND EVEN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA.
THIS IMPULSE WILL MOVE THROUGH FAR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS
EVENING AND FIRE UP ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS FOR NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA
AND WESTERN NEVADA, MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. THIS COULD
BRING LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE 6500-7000 FEET. ELSEWHERE,
RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT. WINDS
WILL REMAIN A BIT GUSTY FOR MANY AREAS THIS EVENING BEFORE DYING
OFF CONSIDERABLY FOR VALLEYS AS A WEAK SURFACE HIGH BUILD IN.
SUNDAY MORNING A FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS MAY LINGER WELL NORTH OF
I-80 BEFORE AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO SLOWLY BUILD OVERHEAD THROUGH
MONDAY. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A BIT BELOW AVERAGE AS
A COOL SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE GREAT BASIN. SNYDER
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION AT THE BEGINNING ON THE LONG TERM
ON TUESDAY. RATHER QUIET WEATHER OVERALL TUESDAY-THURSDAY. ONE
EXCEPTION IS POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT WARM ADVECTION PRECIP NORTH OF
SUSANVILLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
FILAMENT OF MOISTURE BREAKING OFF A MORE SIGNIFICANT ATMOSPHERIC
RIVER OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THIS
PRECIP IS ONLY MEDIUM - MAINLY DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN HOW FAR
SOUTH THE MOISTURE PLUME WILL GET.
MAIN INTEREST IN THE LONG TERM IS INCREASING LIKELIHOOD OF AN
APPRECIABLE TROF MOVING INTO CA/NV FRIDAY-SATURDAY. THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ECMWF/GFS BUT OVERALL THE BIG PICTURE
PATTERN IS SIMILAR, LEADING TO MEDIUM FORECAST CONFIDENCE WHICH AT
THIS LEAD TIME ISN`T BAD. NAEFS ANOMALY CHARTS ALSO PICKING UP ON
THIS TROUGH WHICH HELPS INCREASE CONFIDENCE IN THE PATTERN
VERIFYING. OVERALL CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE MINIMAL. CHANCE OF
RAIN FRIDAY-SATURDAY WITH SNOW LEVELS FALLING FROM 10KFT TO 6-7KFT.
QPF/TIMING ARE THE MAIN UNCERTAINTIES: ECMWF LIGHTER QPF BUT FASTER
WHILE GFS HAS SOME PERIODS OF HEAVY PRECIP IN THE SIERRA BUT IT`S
SLOWER. NO REASON TO FAVOR ONE OUTCOME OVER THE OTHER RIGHT NOW.
STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY GIVEN
SFC GRADIENT AND 700MB FLOW 40-55 KTS DEPICTED IN THE GFS; TO A
LESSER EXTENT IN THE ECMWF. CS
AVIATION...
NOT EXACTLY THE MOST PLEASANT DAY FOR FLYING WITH STRONG WINDS AND
SHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGH MID-EVENING. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE
TAFS IS MEDIUM.
WINDS HAVE BEEN SOMEWHAT ERRATIC AROUND RNO/CXP WITH PRECIP SPILLING
OVER AND SWITCHING WIND DIRECTION AT SFC TO W/NW. S/SW WINDS IN
FOOTHILLS YIELDING LLWS WHICH HAS BEEN REPORTED BY RECENT ARRIVALS
INTO RNO. NOT SURE HOW LONG THIS WESTERLY WIND WILL LAST SO HAVE
USED TEMPO IN TAF. THE NEXT UNCERTAINTY IS POTENTIAL FOR MOUNTAIN
WAVE AND DOWNSLOPE WIND ENHANCEMENTS AT RNO/CXP FROM 23Z-03Z AS
WINDS ALOFT TURN MORE W/SW. IF THIS HAPPENS WINDS AT THE SURFACE
WOULD TURN MORE SSE BUT JUST OFF THE SURFACE STRONG SW WINDS OF
50KTS WOULD RESULT IN APPRECIABLE LLWS CONTINUING AT RNO/CXP. HRRR
SHOWING THIS SIGNATURE CLEARLY IN LATEST RUNS. OVERALL THE
PROBABILITY OF THIS SCENARIO PANNING OUT IS ABOUT 50-60% SO HAVE
INCLUDED IN THE 18Z TAFS.
OTHERWISE MAIN ISSUE IS PRECIP IN THE SIERRA AND IN FAR WESTERN
NEVADA WEST OF HWY 395. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR GUIDANCE -
BETWEEN NOW AND 03Z IS OPTIMAL TIME FOR COLD FRONTAL RAIN TO IMPACT
AIRFIELDS INCLUDING TRK/TVL/BRIDGEPORT. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION IS A
GIVEN IN THE SIERRA AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT DAYBREAK SUNDAY
IN THE COOLER POST FRONTAL AIRMASS. IF SKIES CLEAR ENOUGH FOG IS
POSSIBLE AT TRK LATE TONIGHT SINCE THEY DID GET A BURST OF RAIN THIS
AFTERNOON. CS
FIRE WEATHER...
STRONG WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES IN. INCREASING MOISTURE OVER THE SIERRA AND ALONG THE
SIERRA FRONT HAVE HELPED TO INCREASE THE HUMIDITY IN THE RENO-CARSON
CITY-MINDEN AREAS. THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE WESTERN NEVADA
SIERRA FRONT WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 3PM THIS AFTERNOON.
FURTHER EAST, DRIER CONDITIONS AND STRONG WINDS WILL KEEP THE RED
FLAG WARNING IN PLACE THROUGH 8PM THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH WESTERN NEVADA THIS EVENING WITH
DIMINISHING WINDS, GOOD RECOVERY AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.
HOON
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR LAKE TAHOE
IN NVZ002.
CA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR LAKE TAHOE
IN CAZ072.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
956 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND MAY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHOWERS. COOL AND BLUSTERY WEATHER WILL
FOLLOW SUNDAY WITH THE CHANCE OF A BRIEF AFTERNOON SHOWER. DRY
WEATHER PREVAILS EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH A WARMING TREND BY
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS LATE WEDNESDAY.
COOLER AIR FOLLOWS BEHIND THE FRONT FOR LATER IN THE WEEK. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY BRING WET WEATHER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...BEFORE COLDER AIR ARRIVES FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...
AREA OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE TROUGH
IS FAIRLY DISORGANIZED WITH A FEW BROKEN LINES OF SHOWERS OVER
WESTERN AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND INTO EASTERN NY. LATEST RUNS OF
HRRR AND RAP13 HAS TRENDED WEAKER WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY. THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE AS BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT AND DEEPER MOISTURE TRACKS
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THUS EXPECT AREAL COVERAGE TO BE
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED. THEREFORE WILL LOWER POPS TO CHANCE
CATEGORY TO REFLECT THIS THINKING. HENCE...BY NO MEANS A
WASHOUT...JUST THE RISK OF A BRIEF LIGHT RAIN SHOWER AS ACITIVITY
IS FALLING FROM A MID DECK OF CLOUDS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH NEW AREA
OF CONVECTION THAT HAS DEVELOPED OVER LAKE ONTARIO. HRRR AND RAP13
BRING THAT ACTIVITY IN A WEAKEN STATE INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
BEHIND FRONT...DECENT COLD ADVECTION GETS UNDERWAY ON INCREASING
W/NW WINDS. LOWS IN 40S TO NEAR 50 LOOK GOOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER AHEAD FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. SEE A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WHICH MAY
TRIGGER A FEW DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS ON SUNDAY. BIGGEST QUESTION
IS THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE...BUT SOUNDINGS SHOW THERE IS JUST ENOUGH.
ASIDE FROM A FEW SHOWERS...ANTICIPATE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WHICH WILL
LIMIT DIURNAL HEATING. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH
60 IN MANY LOCATIONS. SUNDAY WILL ALSO SEE STRONG GUSTY WESTERLY
WINDS OF 20-30 MPH DUE TO STEEP LAPSE RATES AND THE STRONG CAA STILL
ALOFT. WENT A FEW MPH HIGHER THEN GUIDANCE AT IT SEEMS THAT MODELS
ARE UNDERDOING THE GUST POTENTIAL WITHIN THE PATTERN. APPEARS THAT
THE GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE ON TRACK...ESP ON WHAT IS OCCURRING
RIGHT NOW.
WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIE DOWN OVERNIGHT BUT STILL REMAIN A TAD GUSTY.
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST. TEMPS MAY DROP TO THE LOW 40S AS GUSTY WINDS
WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* DRY MON/TUE WITH WARMING TREND
* MILD WED WITH FEW AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS
* A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY BY END OF WEEK BUT TURNING COLDER NEXT WEEKEND
DETAILS...
MON AND TUE...
RIDGING BUILDS OVER NORTHEAST IN ADVANCE OF UPPER LOW LIFTING ACROSS
UPPER GREAT LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY OVER MID ATLANTIC STATES
WILL MAINTAIN DRY BUT BRISK W/NW FLOW MON WHICH DIMINISHES AND
BECOMES MORE S/SW TUE AS HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE. HIGHS STAY IN 50S MON
BUT SHOULD REACH LOW-MID 60S TUE WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE
BASED UPON MODEL 2M TEMPS.
WED...
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING UNSEASONABLY MILD SW FLOW TO
REGION. DESPITE FACT 12Z MODELS BRING FRONT INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
DURING MORNING AND MOVE IT OFFSHORE WED EVENING....MOISTURE IS
LIMITED AND DYNAMICS ARE RATHER WEAK ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
THEREFORE ONLY EXPECTING SOME CLOUDINESS AND PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS.
THIS SHOULD STILL ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH 60S IF NOT 70 ACROSS PARTS OF
EASTERN MA SINCE COOL AIR LAGS WELL BEHIND FRONT.
THU...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM OH VALLEY TO MID ATLANTIC COAST. DRIER NW
FLOW PREVAILS WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN 50S.
FRI AND SAT...
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES DRAMATICALLY AS MODELS STRUGGLE WITH
DEVELOPMENT OF BROAD EASTERN US TROUGH/CLOSED LOW FROM COMBINATION
OF PACIFIC ENERGY AND UPPER LOW E OF HUDSON BAY. 12Z ECMWF IS MUCH
FARTHER S ACROSS CAROLINAS AND DEEPER WITH ITS UPPER LOW BY NEXT
WEEKEND...AS COMPARED TO 12Z GFS WHICH TAKES UPPER LOW ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS HAS IMPLICATIONS ON HOW EVERYTHING PLAYS
OUT FRI INTO SAT WITH ECMWF PAINTING A MUCH WETTER SCENARIO THAN GFS
WHICH SHOWS MORE PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM EXITING NEW ENGLAND SAT. FOR NOW
WE WILL USE BLEND OF MODELS TO IRON OUT DIFFERENCES WHICH GIVES
CHANCE POPS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...BUT WE MAY NEED TO EXTEND MENTION
OF PRECIP INTO SAT SHOULD ECMWF SOLUTION BECOME MORE LIKELY. DOES
LOOK LIKE SHOT OF COLDER AIR ARRIVES NEXT WEEKEND EITHER WAY.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
10 PM UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM 00Z TAFS.
-------------------------------------------------------------
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...VFR. BAND OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND 00Z-06Z AND MAY BRING BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS...MAINLY
ACROSS N MA AND SW NH. MAY SEE A FEW GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS TOWARD
DAYBREAK NEAR COAST.
TOMORROW...COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE IN THE MORNING BUT LOTS OF
POST FRONTAL CLOUDS IN THE BKN040 CATEGORY. LOW RISK OF A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. WEST WINDS WILL GUSTS 20-30 KT IN
THE AFTERNOON.
TOMORROW NIGHT...VFR. A FEW GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE.
KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
SHOWERS 03Z-06Z SUN BUT MORE LIKELY CONDITIONS STAY VFR.
KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MON AND TUE...VFR.
WED...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCT SHOWERS.
THU...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... HIGH CONFIDENCE.
10 PM UPDATE...
WINDS BEGINNING TO INCREASE ALONG THE SOUTH COASTAL WATERS.
PREVIOUS FORECAST A BIT TOO QUICK WITH THE ONSET OF THESE STRONGER
WINDS. OTHERWISE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
------------------------------------------------------------------
TONIGHT...
COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE WATERS 06Z-12Z WITH WNW WINDS
INCREASING TO 20-30 KT. SOUTHERN WATERS WILL SEE OCCASIONAL WNW
GALES...SO HAVE HOISTED A GALE WARNING. A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
POSSIBLE NORTHERN MA WATERS.
SUNDAY...
WNW WINDS REMAIN STRONG AT 20-30KT. ANTICIPATE WNW GALES ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN WATERS BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HAVE EXTENDED THE GALE
WARNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE GUSTS. LOW RISK OF A FEW LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE GOOD VSBY.
SUNDAY NIGHT...
WNW GALES WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE BUT GUSTS OF 30 KTS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT IN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN. OTHERWISE
GOOD VSBYS AND DRY WEATHER.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MONDAY...HIGH PRES OVER MID ATLC WILL KEEP W/NW WINDS NEAR SCA EARLY
BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH DURING AFTERNOON. SEAS NEAR 5 FT ON OUTER
WATERS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AS WELL.
TUESDAY...HIGH PRES MOVES OFF MID ATLC COAST RESULTING S/SW FLOW
ACROSS WATERS BUT WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA.
WEDNESDAY...INCREASING SW FLOW AHEAD OF COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM
GREAT LAKES. WINDS AND SEAS MAY REACH SCA...MAINLY ON OPEN S COASTAL
WATERS...BEFORE FRONT BRINGS WIND SHIFT TO NW DURING EVENING.
NOTHING MORE THAN FEW SHOWERS EXPECTED WITH FRONT.
THURSDAY...HIGH PRES BUILDS FROM OH VALLEY TO MID ATLC COAST...
BRINGING DIMINISHING NW WINDS AND SEAS.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ232>235-237-254>256.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ230-231-236-
250-251.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN/JWD
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/DUNTEN/JWD
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...JWD
AVIATION...NOCERA/DUNTEN/JWD
MARINE...NOCERA/DUNTEN/JWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
723 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY RAIN
SHOWERS. IN ITS WAKE...A BRISK AND COOLER DAY IS EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS EXPECTED. DRIER AND WARMER
CONDITIONS RETURN ON MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE
REGION. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ARRIVES LATER TUESDAY EVENING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
TRACKING THE BAND OF SHOWERS...EVEN A POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS TO THE LAKE GEORGE AREA
THIS EVENING. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST BASED ON THE
MOVEMENT OF THE BAND OF RAIN. NOTHING DEVELOPING UPSTREAM NEAR THE
UPPER ENERGY NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES AND NOT DEVELOPING OFF LAKE
ONTARIO BUT SOME NEW SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP OFF THE GREAT LAKES AND
AFFECT THE REGION TOWARD SUNRISE AND INTO THE MORNING.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION DESCRIBES SOME OF THE KEY FEATURES THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND IS BELOW...
AS A POWERFUL UPPER JET /OVER 150KTS/ DIVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL
LAKES REGION AND LEFT EXIT REGION DYNAMICS INTO EASTERN NY AND
WESTERN NE...EXPECTATION IS FOR THESE SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
EXPANDING INTO THIS EVENING. LATEST HRRR REFLECTIVITY FORECAST
POINT TOWARD THIS INITIAL BAND OF SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS MOST OF
THE REGION WITH ANOTHER BATCH DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THIS
INITIAL ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY BE DUE TO THE UPPER
SHORT WAVE FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS UPSTATE NY.
FURTHERMORE...AS H850 TEMPS DROP BACK TO OR BELOW 0C...LAKE EFFECT
ENHANCEMENTS WILL LIKELY AID IN THESE SHOWERS AS WELL. LOOKING
CLOSER AT THUNDER POTENTIAL...EARLIER TODAY WE DID OBSERVE A
COUPLE OF CG/S JUST NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. SHOWALTER VALUES AT
THAT TIME WERE BETWEEN POSITIVE 1-2C. AT THIS TIME...WE WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER ACROSS
THE DACKS REGION WHERE LAPSE RATES WILL BE A LITTLE STEEPER AND
ENHANCED LIFT FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER JET ORIENTATION.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL VARY DUE TO CLOUD COVERAGE AS THERE WILL BE
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...HOWEVER...WIND MAGNITUDES WILL LIKELY REMAIN
ELEVATED. GUIDANCE NUMBERS A TAD WARMER AS WE WILL BLEND MOS WITH
PREVIOUS MIN TEMP GRIDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY...AS MENTIONED IN THE EXCELLENT PREVIOUS FORECAST
DISCUSSION...THE POTENT UPPER JET CORE WILL BE OVER THE REGION AS
STRONG H500 SHORT WAVE DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS UPSTATE NY. THIS
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ADDITIONAL CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION WITH THE BEST CONCENTRATION OF THOSE SHOWERS INTO THE
TERRAIN /ESPECIALLY DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO/. H850 TEMPS PLUNGE
BACK TO BELOW 0C WITH FAIRLY STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
FURTHERMORE...WIND MAGNITUDES NEAR THE MIXING LAYER HEIGHTS NEAR
H875 SUGGEST WE WILL EFFECTIVELY TAP INTO 30KT WINDS. SO A RATHER
BRISK DAY IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH THOSE SHOWERS. DUE TO THE
CLOUDS...SHOWERS AND BRISK WINDS...TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 50S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND
40S ELSEWHERE.
SUNDAY NIGHT...DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION WITH
AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SOME SHOWERS WILL LINGER...MAINLY ACROSS
THE TERRAIN...AND AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS...SOME WET SNOW IS
POSSIBLE TO MIX IN ACROSS THE TERRAIN. CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO
BREAK UP FURTHER INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT WHICH WILL
SLOWLY SPREAD NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT. CLOUD BE RATHER CHILLY NIGHT
WITH MAINLY 30S FOR THE REGION /NEAR 40F FOR ALONG THE HUDSON/MOHAWK
RIVER BASINS/.
MONDAY...MODERATING THERMAL COLUMNS WILL BE UNDERWAY AS SURFACE
RIDGE AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT SHOULD IMPROVE OUR SKY CONDITION
FURTHER. SURFACE TEMPERATURE RESPONSE SHOULD ALLOW VALLEY
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60F FOR MID HUDSON
VALLEY LOCATIONS AND UPR 40S FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
MONDAY NIGHT...MODEL SUITE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A PASSAGE OF
A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. ISENTROPIC LIFT
INCREASES WITH THE BEST LOWERING OF THE CPD/S MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF ALBANY. IN THESE LOCATIONS...WE WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...A GENERAL INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVERAGE AS OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAIN MAINLY INTO THE 40S UNDER
INCREASING WARM ADVECTION.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE A RELATIVELY WARM DAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT...EXPECTED TO AFFECT OUR REGION TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY. SO...INTERVALS OF CLOUDS AND SUN TUESDAY WITH HIGHS
WELL INTO THE 60S.
UPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRACKS INTO THE REGION FROM
THE GREAT LAKES AND CANADA...WITH SHOWERS AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE
COLD FRONT...THEN COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE
MID 50S NORTH TO MID 60S SOUTH. TRAILING UPPER ENERGY DIVES SOUTH
OUT OF CANADA THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...POTENTIALLY BECOMING QUITE
A DYNAMIC UPPER CUT OFF LOW. HOWEVER...THE VARIOUS SETS OF GUIDANCE
SUGGEST VERY DIFFERENT TRACKS...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN POTENTIAL OBSERVED WEATHER IN OUR REGION.
FOR NOW THE RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES SEEMS TO BE TRACKING RIGHT OVER
THE INTERIOR NORTHEASTERN U.S. OR THROUGH THE CAROLINAS/VIRGINIA...
OR ANYWHERE IN BETWEEN. AS THE UPPER ENERGY DIVES SOUTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...WHEREVER IT ENDS UP...HOWEVER STRONG OR WEAK IT IS...AND
WHATEVER THE TIMING EVENTUALLY IS...GENERALLY MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN
WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL. MIDLEVEL AND HIGH CLOUDS DEVELOP
AND THICKEN AS MOISTURE IS INCREASINGLY DRAWN NORTHWARD INTO THE
DEVELOPING UPPER ENERGY...AND STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY UPPER JET
ENERGY.
SO...WITH SUCH A HUGE SPREAD IN GUIDANCE OUT IN THE 6-7 DAY TIME
FRAME...JUST GOING WITH BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES AND
PROBABILITIES FOR SHOWERS INCREASING TO CHANCE BY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY LINGERING INTO SATURDAY. SOME
POSSIBLE SNOW SHOWERS IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGHS
THURSDAY IN THE MID 40S NORTH TO MID TO UPPER 50S SOUTH. HIGHS
FRIDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S NORTH AND AROUND 50 TO LOWER 50S
SOUTH. BY SATURDAY...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO MID TO UPPER
40S SOUTH.
WILL KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR NEXT WEEKEND TO SEE IF SOMETHING
SIGNIFICANT DOES DEVELOP OR IF LIMITED UPSTREAM DATA THIS FAR OUT
CAUSED GUIDANCE TO CREATE A PHANTOM THAT MAY DISAPPEAR AS WE GET
CLOSER. THERE IS STILL QUITE A RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MOSTLY VFR ACROSS THE REGION OUTSIDE OF A BAND OF SHOWERS THAT WILL
AFFECT KGFL...KALB AND KPSF THROUGH ABOUT 01Z-02Z...WHERE SOME
VERY BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS COULD OCCUR. ONCE THIS
BAND OF SHOWERS EXITS...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY
AND A BROKEN CEILING ABOVE 3000 FEET SHOULD PREVAIL...EXCEPT
AROUND KPSF WHERE THE CEILING COULD LOWER TO AROUND 3000 FEET.
AFTER SUNRISE...ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD
AFFECT THE AREA...SO WITH SUCH LOW COVERAGE...VCSH BETWEEN
SUNRISE AND 16Z-18Z. CEILINGS SHOULD STILL BE MAINLY VFR OUTSIDE
OF ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS.
WINDS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS EVENING. THE WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO
THE WEST AND NORTHWEST WITH PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT AND
INCREASE IN SPEED WITH GUSTS TO 20 TO 25 KT ON SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-TUE: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE NIGHT-WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS DUE TO THE WET WEATHER OVER THE PAST 3 TO 4 DAYS.
A COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL IMPACT THE
REGION WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. BRISK AND
COOL CONDITIONS FOR EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND ARE
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. WEST TO NORTHWEST OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME
GUSTS IN THE 30 TO 35 MPH RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THE RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...BEFORE
SLOWLY FALLING TO 50 TO 70 PERCENT ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
RIVERS FLOWS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAINLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING INTO SUNDAY WITH
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN
INCH. SOME CONTROLLED DAM RELEASES WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACTS
IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM ON RIVER POINTS.
DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...WHICH WILL ALLOW LEVELS TO RECEDE FURTHER.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM/NAS
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
325 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014
.DISCUSSION...
THE MAJOR SYNOPTIC FEATURES INFLUENCING THE REGION INCLUDE AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH BUILDING INTO THE EASTERN GULF...A SURFACE LOW EXTENDING
ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS AND
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS. WITH STRONG
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION...OVER-RUNNING ACROSS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO GENERATE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND SOUTH FLORIDA...WITH MOST OF THE SHOWERS
CONCENTRATED ACROSS BISCAYNE BAY AND SOUTHEAST MIAMI DADE COUNTY.
THE GENERAL CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE IS FOR A DRYING TREND OVER
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF MID TO UPPER
LEVEL DRIER AIR STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE REGION...THE BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE STRAITS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD AND HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINNING TO BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEAST SHOULD ALL
CONTRIBUTE TO THE DRYING TREND. THE GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE
LATEST HRRR RUN...SEEMED A LITTLE TOO FAST IN THE DRYING TREND AND
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE SOUTHEAST
PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA IS INDICATED IN THE FORECAST THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT. BUT BY 12Z SATURDAY ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
INDICATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS WITH NO SHOWERS FOR
THE PENINSULA.
THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR THE ATLANTIC COAST BEACHES HAS BEEN
EXTENDED THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY WITH HAZARDOUS SEAS ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z
SATURDAY AND COULD LINGER A BIT LONGER...MAY HAVE TO ADJUST THE
RIP CURRENT RISK WITH UPDATED FORECAST AND CONDITIONS ON
SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE AND STABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
PREVAIL SATURDAY THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH MAINLY
CLIMATOLOGICAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
&&
.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS IS THROUGH
12Z SATURDAY. FOR THE GULF WATERS...THE SCA IS MAINLY FOR WINDS
ABOVE 20 KNOTS...IN THE 20 TO 22 KNOT RANGE...AND MAINLY IN THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE OFF SHORE WATERS AND THE NEAR SHORE WATERS
WEST OF MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE
WIND FORECAST...BUT REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 20 KNOTS ARE OBSERVED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA
KEYS AND WEST OF KEY WEST.
FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS...REGIONAL WINDS IN EXCESS OF 20 KNOTS ARE NOTED
THE ATLANTIC WATERS...INCLUDING BISCAYNE BAY. IN ADDITION SEAS
ABOVE ADVISORY LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO STAY ABOVE ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z SATURDAY AND FORECAST TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE
THEREAFTER.
AS CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 71 81 68 81 / 20 10 10 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 73 81 70 82 / 40 10 10 10
MIAMI 72 82 68 83 / 50 10 0 10
NAPLES 65 81 64 83 / 10 10 0 0
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR FLZ173.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR FLZ168-172-
173.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ630-650-651-
670-671.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR AMZ630.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR GMZ656-657-676.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...59/RM
LONG TERM....60/BD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
203 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014
.AVIATION...
HEAVIER RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE
FLORIDA STRAITS CONTINUE TO PULL TO THE SOUTH AND AWAY FROM THE
EAST COAST SITES. REMOVED SHRA MENTION FROM ALL SITES EXCEPT FOR
KTMB FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO PUSH TO THE
NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE TRENDS
SHOW THE DRY AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND IT. VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
AWAY FROM ANY LINGERING SHRAS. NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD THEN TURN
MORE TO THE NORTH LATER THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1022 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014/
UPDATE...
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS LATE THIS MORNING. A FEW AREAS OF
SHOWERS ROTATING COUNTER-CLOCKWISE AROUND THE LOW CONTINUE TO
SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MIAMI-DADE COUNTY. TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THUS FAR ARE RANGING FROM JUST UNDER ONE INCH
ACROSS PORTIONS OF DOWNTOWN MIAMI TO OVER AN INCH ACROSS BISCAYNE
BAY. INTERMITTENT LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS
THESE AREAS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ACTIVITY SHOULD THEN BEGIN
TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS THE LOW PUSHES FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST
TAKING THE MAIN SHIELD OF RAIN WITH IT. UPDATED
POP...WEATHER...AND QPF GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST RADAR AND
SHORT TERM GUIDANCE TRENDS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014/
DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR AND RAP ANALYSIS FROM EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWED DEEP
MOISTURE MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS CUBA...THE FLORIDA STRAITS...AND
SOUTH FLORIDA. MUCH DRIER AIR WAS LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND
THE GULF OF MEXICO. A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE PENINSULA. AN AREA OF CONVECTION WAS LOCATED
ACROSS THE BAHAMAS SOUTHWARD TO CENTRAL CUBA AND MOVING OFF TO THE
EAST AND NORTHEAST. 850MB FLOW WAS 20-25 KNOTS ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND KEYS...AND THESE STRONGER
WINDS WERE MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND MIAMI-
DADE COUNTY. THIS WEAK JET WILL PROMOTE HIGHER RAINFALL EFFICIENCY.
RAINFALL COVERAGE WAS INCREASING ACROSS THE KEYS AND LOCAL ATLANTIC
WATERS...AND A BAND OF SHOWERS WAS MOVING INTO MIAMI-DADE COUNTY.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS BAND.
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN TIP OF
CUBA. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WILL DIG SOUTH
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL DEEPEN THE FRONTAL WAVE AS IT MOVES INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE AS THE REGION REMAINS TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. SOME
WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKE PLACE TODAY...BUT CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN
SOUTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE KEYS AND FLORIDA STRAITS. SO LEFT OUT
MENTION OF THUNDER. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE BOUNDARY...BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OVER
MIAMI-DADE AND SOUTHEAST BROWARD COUNTIES. A SHARP POP GRADIENT WILL
EXIST AGAIN TODAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS GLADES COUNTY
SOUTHWEST TO NAPLES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 80 TO THE MID 80S.
THE GFS IS THE STRONGEST AMONG THE MODEL GUIDANCE WITH THE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE AND HAS SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KNOTS OVER THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE DROPS TO AROUND 1000MB. THE
OTHER AVAILABLE GUIDANCE IS LOWER...WITH WINDS IN THE 25-30 KNOT
RANGE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT. THERE IS NO COLD AIR
ADVECTION...SO WILL NOT GO WITH A GALE AT THIS TIME. FOR THE AREAS
ALONG THE EAST COAST...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS
AS HIGH AS 35 MPH MID/LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT BEFORE
SUBSIDING. THIS IS JUST BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.
RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS AND INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC
AND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST GULF AND SOUTH
FLORIDA. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW...WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE 50S
TO LOW 60S. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF ON SATURDAY WILL BUILD EASTWARD
TO NORTH OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY...AND WINDS WILL VEER TO THE
NORTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...WITH EASTERLY FLOW AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL SLOWLY RISE BACK INTO THE
MID 70S FOR THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS DUE TO THE ONSHORE FLOW.
HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE IN THE MID 80S.
MARINE...
A FRONTAL WAVE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY ACROSS DEEP
SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-30 KNOTS ACROSS THE
REGIONAL WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE GULF STREAM TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND INTO THE BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND THEN
INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THIS EVENING AND ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS
ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION ON
SUNDAY AND ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 70 82 69 82 / 20 10 10 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 73 82 71 83 / 40 10 10 10
MIAMI 71 82 69 83 / 50 10 0 10
NAPLES 66 82 65 82 / 10 10 0 0
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR FLZ173.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-
173.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ630-650-651-
670-671.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ630.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ656-657-
676.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
1022 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014
.UPDATE...
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS LATE THIS MORNING. A FEW AREAS OF
SHOWERS ROTATING COUNTER-CLOCKWISE AROUND THE LOW CONTINUE TO
SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MIAMI-DADE COUNTY. TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THUS FAR ARE RANGING FROM JUST UNDER ONE INCH
ACROSS PORTIONS OF DOWNTOWN MIAMI TO OVER AN INCH ACROSS BISCAYNE
BAY. INTERMITTENT LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS
THESE AREAS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ACTIVITY SHOULD THEN BEGIN
TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS THE LOW PUSHES FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST
TAKING THE MAIN SHIELD OF RAIN WITH IT. UPDATED
POP...WEATHER...AND QPF GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST RADAR AND
SHORT TERM GUIDANCE TRENDS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 807 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014/
AVIATION...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ENTERING THE FLORIDA STRAITS WILL CONTINUE
TO PUSH TO THE NORTHEAST AND INTO THE BAHAMAN ISLANDS BY TONIGHT.
AS IT DOES...BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SLIDE BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AND
TOWARD THE EAST COAST SITES THIS MORNING. ACTIVITY APPEARS TO
WEAKEN AS IT PUSHES ONSHORE LEAVING ONLY SHRAS EXPECTED FOR EAST
COAST TAF SITES THIS MORNING TRANSITIONING TO VCSH INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD AS THE LOW DEEPENS AS IT PUSHES TO THE NORTHEAST.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014/
DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR AND RAP ANALYSIS FROM EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWED DEEP
MOISTURE MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS CUBA...THE FLORIDA STRAITS...AND
SOUTH FLORIDA. MUCH DRIER AIR WAS LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND
THE GULF OF MEXICO. A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE PENINSULA. AN AREA OF CONVECTION WAS LOCATED
ACROSS THE BAHAMAS SOUTHWARD TO CENTRAL CUBA AND MOVING OFF TO THE
EAST AND NORTHEAST. 850MB FLOW WAS 20-25 KNOTS ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND KEYS...AND THESE STRONGER
WINDS WERE MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND MIAMI-
DADE COUNTY. THIS WEAK JET WILL PROMOTE HIGHER RAINFALL EFFICIENCY.
RAINFALL COVERAGE WAS INCREASING ACROSS THE KEYS AND LOCAL ATLANTIC
WATERS...AND A BAND OF SHOWERS WAS MOVING INTO MIAMI-DADE COUNTY.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS BAND.
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN TIP OF
CUBA. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WILL DIG SOUTH
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL DEEPEN THE FRONTAL WAVE AS IT MOVES INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE AS THE REGION REMAINS TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. SOME
WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKE PLACE TODAY...BUT CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN
SOUTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE KEYS AND FLORIDA STRAITS. SO LEFT OUT
MENTION OF THUNDER. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE BOUNDARY...BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OVER
MIAMI-DADE AND SOUTHEAST BROWARD COUNTIES. A SHARP POP GRADIENT WILL
EXIST AGAIN TODAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS GLADES COUNTY
SOUTHWEST TO NAPLES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 80 TO THE MID 80S.
THE GFS IS THE STRONGEST AMONG THE MODEL GUIDANCE WITH THE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE AND HAS SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KNOTS OVER THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE DROPS TO AROUND 1000MB. THE
OTHER AVAILABLE GUIDANCE IS LOWER...WITH WINDS IN THE 25-30 KNOT
RANGE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT. THERE IS NO COLD AIR
ADVECTION...SO WILL NOT GO WITH A GALE AT THIS TIME. FOR THE AREAS
ALONG THE EAST COAST...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS
AS HIGH AS 35 MPH MID/LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT BEFORE
SUBSIDING. THIS IS JUST BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.
RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS AND INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC
AND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST GULF AND SOUTH
FLORIDA. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW...WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE 50S
TO LOW 60S. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF ON SATURDAY WILL BUILD EASTWARD
TO NORTH OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY...AND WINDS WILL VEER TO THE
NORTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...WITH EASTERLY FLOW AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL SLOWLY RISE BACK INTO THE
MID 70S FOR THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS DUE TO THE ONSHORE FLOW.
HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE IN THE MID 80S.
MARINE...
A FRONTAL WAVE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY ACROSS DEEP
SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-30 KNOTS ACROSS THE
REGIONAL WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE GULF STREAM TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND INTO THE BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND THEN
INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THIS EVENING AND ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS
ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION ON
SUNDAY AND ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 80 70 82 69 / 40 20 10 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 80 73 82 71 / 60 30 10 0
MIAMI 80 71 82 69 / 70 30 10 0
NAPLES 85 66 82 65 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR FLZ173.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-
173.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ630-650-651-
670-671.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ630.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ656-657-
676.
&&
$$
UPDATE...10/CD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
807 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014
.AVIATION...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ENTERING THE FLORIDA STRAITS WILL CONTINUE
TO PUSH TO THE NORTHEAST AND INTO THE BAHAMAN ISLANDS BY TONIGHT.
AS IT DOES...BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SLIDE BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AND
TOWARD THE EAST COAST SITES THIS MORNING. ACTIVITY APPEARS TO
WEAKEN AS IT PUSHES ONSHORE LEAVING ONLY SHRAS EXPECTED FOR EAST
COAST TAF SITES THIS MORNING TRANSITIONING TO VCSH INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD AS THE LOW DEEPENS AS IT PUSHES TO THE NORTHEAST.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014/
DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR AND RAP ANALYSIS FROM EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWED DEEP
MOISTURE MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS CUBA...THE FLORIDA STRAITS...AND
SOUTH FLORIDA. MUCH DRIER AIR WAS LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND
THE GULF OF MEXICO. A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE PENINSULA. AN AREA OF CONVECTION WAS LOCATED
ACROSS THE BAHAMAS SOUTHWARD TO CENTRAL CUBA AND MOVING OFF TO THE
EAST AND NORTHEAST. 850MB FLOW WAS 20-25 KNOTS ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND KEYS...AND THESE STRONGER
WINDS WERE MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND MIAMI-
DADE COUNTY. THIS WEAK JET WILL PROMOTE HIGHER RAINFALL EFFICIENCY.
RAINFALL COVERAGE WAS INCREASING ACROSS THE KEYS AND LOCAL ATLANTIC
WATERS...AND A BAND OF SHOWERS WAS MOVING INTO MIAMI-DADE COUNTY.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS BAND.
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN TIP OF
CUBA. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WILL DIG SOUTH
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL DEEPEN THE FRONTAL WAVE AS IT MOVES INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE AS THE REGION REMAINS TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. SOME
WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKE PLACE TODAY...BUT CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN
SOUTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE KEYS AND FLORIDA STRAITS. SO LEFT OUT
MENTION OF THUNDER. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE BOUNDARY...BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OVER
MIAMI-DADE AND SOUTHEAST BROWARD COUNTIES. A SHARP POP GRADIENT WILL
EXIST AGAIN TODAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS GLADES COUNTY
SOUTHWEST TO NAPLES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 80 TO THE MID 80S.
THE GFS IS THE STRONGEST AMONG THE MODEL GUIDANCE WITH THE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE AND HAS SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KNOTS OVER THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE DROPS TO AROUND 1000MB. THE
OTHER AVAILABLE GUIDANCE IS LOWER...WITH WINDS IN THE 25-30 KNOT
RANGE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT. THERE IS NO COLD AIR
ADVECTION...SO WILL NOT GO WITH A GALE AT THIS TIME. FOR THE AREAS
ALONG THE EAST COAST...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS
AS HIGH AS 35 MPH MID/LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT BEFORE
SUBSIDING. THIS IS JUST BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.
RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS AND INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC
AND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST GULF AND SOUTH
FLORIDA. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW...WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE 50S
TO LOW 60S. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF ON SATURDAY WILL BUILD EASTWARD
TO NORTH OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY...AND WINDS WILL VEER TO THE
NORTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...WITH EASTERLY FLOW AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL SLOWLY RISE BACK INTO THE
MID 70S FOR THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS DUE TO THE ONSHORE FLOW.
HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE IN THE MID 80S.
MARINE...
A FRONTAL WAVE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY ACROSS DEEP
SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-30 KNOTS ACROSS THE
REGIONAL WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE GULF STREAM TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND INTO THE BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND THEN
INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THIS EVENING AND ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS
ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION ON
SUNDAY AND ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 80 70 82 69 / 50 20 10 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 80 73 82 71 / 80 30 10 0
MIAMI 80 71 82 69 / 90 30 10 0
NAPLES 85 66 82 65 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR FLZ173.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ630-650-651-
670-671.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR AMZ630.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ656-657-
676.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....84/AK
AVIATION...10/CD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
349 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014
.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR AND RAP ANALYSIS FROM EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWED DEEP
MOISTURE MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS CUBA...THE FLORIDA STRAITS...AND
SOUTH FLORIDA. MUCH DRIER AIR WAS LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND
THE GULF OF MEXICO. A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE PENINSULA. AN AREA OF CONVECTION WAS LOCATED
ACROSS THE BAHAMAS SOUTHWARD TO CENTRAL CUBA AND MOVING OFF TO THE
EAST AND NORTHEAST. 850MB FLOW WAS 20-25 KNOTS ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND KEYS...AND THESE STRONGER
WINDS WERE MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND MIAMI-
DADE COUNTY. THIS WEAK JET WILL PROMOTE HIGHER RAINFALL EFFICIENCY.
RAINFALL COVERAGE WAS INCREASING ACROSS THE KEYS AND LOCAL ATLANTIC
WATERS...AND A BAND OF SHOWERS WAS MOVING INTO MIAMI-DADE COUNTY.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS BAND.
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN TIP OF
CUBA. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WILL DIG SOUTH
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL DEEPEN THE FRONTAL WAVE AS IT MOVES INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE AS THE REGION REMAINS TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. SOME
WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKE PLACE TODAY...BUT CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN
SOUTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE KEYS AND FLORIDA STRAITS. SO LEFT OUT
MENTION OF THUNDER. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE BOUNDARY...BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OVER
MIAMI-DADE AND SOUTHEAST BROWARD COUNTIES. A SHARP POP GRADIENT WILL
EXIST AGAIN TODAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS GLADES COUNTY
SOUTHWEST TO NAPLES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 80 TO THE MID 80S.
THE GFS IS THE STRONGEST AMONG THE MODEL GUIDANCE WITH THE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE AND HAS SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KNOTS OVER THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE DROPS TO AROUND 1000MB. THE
OTHER AVAILABLE GUIDANCE IS LOWER...WITH WINDS IN THE 25-30 KNOT
RANGE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT. THERE IS NO COLD AIR
ADVECTION...SO WILL NOT GO WITH A GALE AT THIS TIME. FOR THE AREAS
ALONG THE EAST COAST...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS
AS HIGH AS 35 MPH MID/LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT BEFORE
SUBSIDING. THIS IS JUST BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.
RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS AND INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC
AND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST GULF AND SOUTH
FLORIDA. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW...WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE 50S
TO LOW 60S. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF ON SATURDAY WILL BUILD EASTWARD
TO NORTH OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY...AND WINDS WILL VEER TO THE
NORTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...WITH EASTERLY FLOW AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL SLOWLY RISE BACK INTO THE
MID 70S FOR THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS DUE TO THE ONSHORE FLOW.
HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE IN THE MID 80S.
&&
.AVIATION... A LOW, DEVELOPING OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS, WILL BRING
RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS TO SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE
LOW IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE MORNING, THE BEGIN TO MOVE
AWAY FROM THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, WINDS LOOK TO BE THE
STRONGEST THIS EVENING, WHEN GUSTS LOOK TO BE AROUND 30KTS OUT OF
THE NORTHEAST. THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON, HEAVY
RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS COULD BRING BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS
TO SOUTH FLORIDA AT ANY GIVEN TIME. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY
OF THE TIMING, AND THE SHORT DURATION OF THE EXPECTED IFR
OCCURRENCE, HAVE KEPT THE MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
&&
.MARINE...
A FRONTAL WAVE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY ACROSS DEEP
SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-30 KNOTS ACROSS THE
REGIONAL WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE GULF STREAM TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND INTO THE BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND THEN
INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THIS EVENING AND ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS
ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION ON
SUNDAY AND ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 80 70 82 69 / 50 20 10 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 80 73 82 71 / 80 30 10 0
MIAMI 80 71 82 69 / 90 30 10 0
NAPLES 85 66 82 65 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR FLZ173.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ630-650-651-
670-671.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR AMZ630.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ656-657-
676.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....84/AK
AVIATION...13/SI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
507 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014
.DISCUSSION...
304 PM CDT
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...
BROAD SURFACE HIGH STRETCHES FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON WHILE
LOW PRESSURE LIES OVER ONTARIO WITH A COLD FRONT STRETCHING INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. A NARROW RIBBON OF MOISTURE IS ANALYZED OUT AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT WITH 60 DEGREE DEWPOINTS STRETCHING NORTH INTO
NORTHERN IOWA THIS AFTERNOON...AND JUST OFF THE DECK A CORRIDOR OF
LOW/MID LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION IS DRIVING AT LEAST A FEW VERY WEAK
RADAR RETURNS OVER FAR SE MN AND NE IA. RAP/HRRR GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS
AREA PERSISTING ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS THIS EVENING WITH THE
CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS. GIVEN THE VERY SPARSE COVERAGE SO FAR
UPSTREAM AND THE DRY SOUNDINGS/LIMITED DURATION OF FORCING...NOT
BITING OFF ON PRECIP MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...BUT WILL
MAINTAIN SOME LOW END SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SINCE THERE ARE SOME
INGREDIENTS IN PLACE.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
WEAK FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY ON SATURDAY WITH DRY AIR
FILTERING BACK INTO THE REGION AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
AREA AND SUBSIDENCE SETS IN OVERHEAD. EXPECT DEW POINTS TO MIX OUT
NICELY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS
WHERE DEW POINTS MAY DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S. THE DRY
CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A NICE RESPONSE FROM DIABATIC HEATING
WHICH WILL RESULT IN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER TOMORROW.
MEANWHILE...SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
SATURDAY DIRECTLY OVERHEAD EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WHICH WILL ALLOW
FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING SUNDAY MORNING WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO
THE 30S IN OUTLYING AREAS AND SOME OF THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS.
ELSEWHERE EXPECT LOW 40S WITH DOWNTOWN CHICAGO STAYING PROPPED UP IN
THE MID 40S. TEMPERATURES MAY BE A BIT TRICKY SUNDAY WITH WARM
ADVECTION ALOFT INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
SURFACE HIGH. A COOL STARTING POINT AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE DAY WILL KEEP HIGHS ONLY INTO THE 60S SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUCKLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DIGS FROM THE PAC NW INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. BROAD SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL SHIFT EAST TOWARDS THE MIDWEST
EARLY MONDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASING OUT AHEAD AND A CORRIDOR
OF MODERATE TO STRONG MID LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION LIFTING ACROSS THE
LOCAL FORECAST AREA ON THE NOSE OF A 40KT OR SO LOW LEVEL JET.
COLUMN IS FAIRLY DRY OUT AHEAD OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE BUT A NARROW
LAYER OF SATURATION COULD TAP INTO SOME MODEST INSTABILITY ROOTED
BETWEEN H7-H9. THIS DOES POINT TO SOME CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
THOUGH CHANCES ARE BETTER TO OUR NORTH WHERE THE MUCAPE ALIGNS
BETTER WITH THE FORCING FROM THE LOW LEVEL JET. EXPECT LOWERING
CLOUDS IN THE PREDAWN HOURS AS THE SURFACE WARM FRONT APPROACHES.
THE MID LEVELS DRY OUT AGAIN AND THE MOISTURE IS FAIRLY SHALLOW SO
ANY ADDITIONAL PRECIP EARLY ON MONDAY MAY JUST BE DRIZZLE. SURFACE
WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA MID MORNING MONDAY AND EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS ONCE IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH LOW CLOUD COVER EVENTUALLY
SCATTERING. H85 TEMPS WARM TO 15-16C WITH 17C BEING THE 99TH
PERCENTILE OF UPPER AIR CLIMO FOR THE END OF OCTOBER. SURFACE HIGHS
WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL...POSSIBLY PUSHING 20F ABOVE
NORMAL...THOUGH THE RECORD HIGH SHOULD BE SAFE. LEANED HEAVILY ON
EC/ECBC FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS MONDAY FORECASTING MID 70S...WITH UPPER
70S SOUTH OF I-80. THE WARMER CONDITIONS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
STRONGER WINDS HOWEVER WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 20 TO 25 MPH AND
POSSIBLY 30 MPH AT TIMES.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
MODELS ARE INDICATING A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO
DEVELOP OVER THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A COLD FRONT SWEEPING
ACROSS THE ARE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY BRINGING CHANCES FOR
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE LOW REALLY BEGINS TO DEEPEN IN EARNEST
AS IT LIFTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO CANADA TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH DRIVING POLAR AIR SOUTH INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES
AND A COLD POLAR HIGH GRAZING THE LOCAL AREA LATE NEXT WEEK. DETAILS
STILL MURKY THIS FAR OUT BUT DOES APPEAR WE COULD BE IN FOR A BIG
COOL DOWN LATE NEXT WEEK IN TIME FOR HALLOWEEN IF CURRENT GFS/ECMWF
RUNS PAN OUT.
DEUBELBEISS
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 22Z...
* CIGS LOWER THIS EVENING...MVFR POSSIBLE AFTER 03-04Z.
* MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE TONIGHT.
* SLIGHT CHANCE -SHRA LATE THIS EVENING.
MDB/RATZER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 22Z...
LAKE BREEZE REMAINS LIMITED TO IMMEDIATE COOK COUNTY SHORELINE AND
PARTS OF EASTERN LAKE COUNTY IL AT 22Z...AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
A FACTOR FOR CHICAGO TERMINALS AS WINDS BACK SOUTHWEST. OTHERWISE...
AN AREA OF MVFR/IFR CLOUDINESS OVER EASTERN IA/SOUTHWEST WI
CONTINUES TO BE MONITORED AS IT MOVES EAST. EXTRAPOLATION OF SATELLITE
IMAGES INDICATES ARRIVAL AFTER 01Z FOR RFD AND AFTER 03-04Z FOR
CHICAGO TERMINALS.
RATZER
FROM 18Z...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION CONTINUES TO PROVIDE LIGHT WINDS
WHICH HAVE BEEN VARIABLE BETWEEN SOUTH AND WEST. WILL SEE A
STEADIER SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST DIRECTION DEVELOP INTO THE EVENING AS
THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD. FEW-SCT MVFR CLOUDS LINGER ACROSS
NORTHWEST INDIANA WITH MOST AREAS VFR. LOW CIGS/VSBY REMAIN ACROSS
RFD BUT IS QUICKLY ERODING NORTHWESTWARD SO EXPECT VFR AT RFD BY
19Z OR SO.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WHICH WILL BRING
LOWERING CLOUD COVER. EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TO AT LEAST LOW END VFR
WITH MVFR POSSIBLE GOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE BUT SHOULD BE BRIEF AND SPOTTY IN COVERAGE. CIGS MAY
FURTHER LOWER TO LOWER END MVFR OVERNIGHT BUT AM NOT HIGHLY
CONFIDENT IN THIS OCCURRING. MAY ALSO SEE VSBY LOWER TO MVFR ACROSS
MOST AREAS AS WELL. AM A LITTLE MORE CONCERNED ABOUT IFR POTENTIAL
AT RFD GIVEN HIGHER RESIDUAL MOISTURE THANKS TO THE STRATUS/FOG
HANGING ON SO LONG TODAY. MAY NEED TO CARRY LOWER CONDITIONS WITH
LATER UPDATES. WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY SATURDAY MORNING AS
DRIER AIR WORKS IN. THIS WILL ERODE ANY LOW CIGS/VSBY ALLOWING FOR
VFR TO PREVAIL BY MID/LATE MORNING IF NOT SOONER.
MDB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 22Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS LOWERING TO LOWER END VFR THIS
EVENING...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN MVFR VSBY TONIGHT.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THREAT FOR -SHRA IS LOW LATE THIS EVENING.
MDB/RATZER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR. WX NIL.
SUNDAY...VFR. WX NIL.
MONDAY...VFR. WX NIL.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...CHANCE SHRA/SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT...SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR. WX NIL.
KREIN
&&
.MARINE...
228 PM CDT
HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOWLY PUSHING EAST WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER
THE LAKE. A WEAK LAKE BREEZE HAS TURNED WINDS ONSHORE OVER LAKE
COUNTY IL. SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO 20-25 KT THIS EVENING WITH
OCNL 30 KT GUSTS PSBL OVER THE NORTH HALF OF THE LAKE OVERNIGHT.
WINDS TURN W 20-25 KT BEHIND THE FRONT AND SLOWLY BECOME NW SATURDAY
NIGHT. POINTS NORTH OF WILMETTE HARBOR MAY SEE OCNL GUSTS TO 25 KT
TOMORROW...BUT THINKING SUSTAINED SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE
MET. WINDS DIMINISH AS A HIGH MOVES OVER THE LAKE SUNDAY. WINDS
BECOME SOUTH BEHIND THE LOW AND THEN TURN SE AND INCREASE TO 20-25
KT AS THE NEXT LOW APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF
VARIABILITY IN THE STRENGTH AND PATH OF THE NEXT LOW SO CONFIDENCE
IS LOW IN THE EXACT WIND SPEEDS. ONE MODEL DOES FEATURE WESTERLY
GALES ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT DO NOT HAVE
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO GO THAT HIGH IN THE FORECAST JUST YET. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN MID NEXT WEEK AND WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISH WEDNESDAY.
STILL THINKING THERE IS A MARGINAL CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
TO BE MET MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON
HEADLINES FOR NOW.
JEE
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
311 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014
19z/2pm satellite imagery shows low clouds that persisted for much
of the day across west-central Illinois have finally dissipated,
with just one small patch remaining from south of Lincoln to near
Taylorville. Based on satellite trends, this patch will dissipate
over the next hour or so as well, leading to mostly clear skies late
this afternoon into the early evening. Main short-term forecast
concern will be the potential re-development of low clouds/fog
tonight as a weak trough of low pressure moves through the area.
While the overall depth of the atmosphere will be very dry, a
shallow surface-based moist layer will remain in place. With no
deep-layer moisture to work with, precip is not expected to develop
along the trough despite the NAM hinting at some overnight. As winds
become light/variable and cloud cover associated with the passing
trough begins to clear from northwest to southeast after midnight,
fog will begin to develop. HRRR is showing widespread fog once
again forming across central/eastern Iowa, then spreading into the
Illinois River Valley toward dawn. As a result, will carry areas of
fog along/west of the Illinois River, with patchy fog as far east as
Champaign/Danville. Due to cloud cover and light southerly winds,
low temperatures will be quite a bit warmer than in recent nights,
with readings remaining in the lower to middle 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Friday)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014
Saturday will start off with some morning fog, mainly N of I-70. The
fog should burn off around mid-morning, as a cold front pushes east
across IL. Some cooler air associated with the front will be mainly
confined to northern IL, with our 850mb temps still remaining the
12-14C range in the post-frontal airmass. Dry-adiabatic warming of
that layer to the surface, coupled with some sunshine should help
push high temps into the low 70s N of I-74 with upper 70s S of
I-70. NW winds will still develop behind the front, so a brief
chill may be added to the air at times.
Mid level warming will develop Saturday night into Sunday, as 850mb
temps climb toward +16C. That warm layer will linger into Monday.
Southerly winds will develop Sunday afternoon once the surface ridge
axis moves east of IL, so highs should once again climb into the 70s
across the board. On Monday, a few 80 degree readings will possible
on Monday across southwest and southeast portions of the forecast
area, which would be nearly 20 degrees above normal for late
October. Record highs for Monday are in the mid 80s and currently
appear safe.
A long wave trough is forecast to move across the northern
Plains on Monday night, with cold front progressing across IL
Tuesday morning and early afternoon. The ECMWF indicates a more
dynamic system developing in the western Great Lakes on Tuesday,
while the GFS remains a bit more progressive and less strong with
the frontal passage in our area of IL. We did maintain widespread
chance PoPs Monday night, as moisture pooling and lift still appear
to be sufficient a band of rain to affect central IL. We continued
the likely PoPs in SE Illinois for Tuesday, but chances should
diminish Tue afternoon as the main forcing for precip departs into
Indiana, and dry air quickly filters into the area aloft.
A significant cool down is agreed upon by the GFS and ECMWF for
Tuesday and Tuesday night, as 850mb temps plummet to 0 to -3C by
midday Wednesday. That will bring temps back below normal for highs
Wed, with upper 50s north of I-74, with low 60s south near
Jacksonville to Lawrenceville.
Another cold front is indicated for Thursday, with better agreement
on timing of the front between the GFS and ECMWF. Confidence is
increasing that a band of light rain showers may accompany that
front. So low chances for rain was added to the Thurs forecast,
mainly from the Illinois river to I-55.
The GFS is a about 4-5 degrees colder than the ECMWF behind the
front, with 850mb readings in the -2 to -4C range Friday afternoon.
We will continue with the cooling trend for late week. Some freezing
temps could develop for Friday night N of I-74 if the GFS scenario
pans out.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014
Low clouds are rapidly dissipating across the area early this
afternoon, with 1730z visible satellite imagery showing one
persistent band from KGBG to KTAZ. Based on satellite trends,
will hold on to IFR ceilings at KSPI for one more hour before
clearing things out by 19z. Once these clouds dissipate, only
FEW-SCT diurnal Cu and high/thin cirrus will be noted for the
balance of the day. Main aviation question will be how low
ceilings will go tonight as trough axis approaches from the
northwest. NAM forecast soundings and latest HRRR both suggest at
least MVFR ceilings spreading in from the NW between 02z and 05z.
This band of low clouds will begin clearing out after midnight,
which will likely lead to fog development toward dawn. Given a
similar airmass to last night and winds expected to become
light/variable in the vicinity of the trough, have reduced visbys
to between 1 and 3 miles at the terminals. Once the trough passes,
winds will veer to the W/NW and any low clouds/fog will clear out
by Saturday morning.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Shimon
AVIATION...Barnes
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
259 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014
.DISCUSSION...
326 AM CDT
SHORT TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING...THE INITIAL
CONCERN WILL BE CLOUD COVER...AND IMPACTS ON VISIBILITY. FOLLOWING
THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK SFC TROUGH/PACIFIC-SOURCED WEAK COLD
FRONT...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE HAS BUILT ACROSS THE REGION. A LOW
STRATUS DECK HAS BEEN IN PLACE FOLLOWING THE FROPA...BUT THE STRATUS
DECK IS ERODING IN PLACES...AND WITH CALM TO LGT/VRBL WINDS IN
PLACE...THE CLEARING LOCATIONS ARE EXPERIENCING RAPID FOG
DEVELOPMENT. THE FOG IS INITIALLY MOSTLY IMPACTING NWRN IL...ARND
THE ROCKFORD AREA...BUT AS THE STRATUS CONTINUES TO
DISSIPATE...ADDITIONAL FOG MAY DEVELOP...BUT ANY DENSE FOG SHOULD BE
LIMITED TO NORTH CENTRAL AND NWRN IL...AWAY FROM THE CHICAGO METRO
AREA. EXCEPT FOR LOCATIONS THAT CLEAR OUT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
GENERALLY BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S...EXCEPT FOR SOME
ISOLATED...SHELTERED LOW LYING AREAS...WHICH COULD RADIATE DOWN INTO
THE UPPER 40S.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF FRIDAY...THE WARMING TREND SHOULD CONTINUE AS
UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE
WESTERN PLAINS. THE MORNING STRATUS AND STRATOCU SHOULD DISSIPATE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...BUT TOTAL SUNSHINE WILL BE LIMITED AS A
THICK CIRRUS LAYER AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
JET STREAM DIVES OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE
MIDWEST. THE SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE IS ALSO INDICATING SOME SHORTWAVE
ENERGY OVERTOPPING THE RIDGE THIS EVENING...WITH SOME GUIDANCE
INDICATING A LITTLE QPF. HAVE A HARD TIME INTRODUCING ANY
MENTIONABLE POPS WITH THIS SYSTEM AS MOISTURE PROFILE FORECASTS ALSO
INDICATE LITTLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. HOWEVER...SOME OF THE HIGH RES
SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IS SHOWING SOME INCREASE RH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
UNDER INCREASINGLY SWLY FLOW...BUT AS FLOW OFF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
WILL BE LIMITED BY HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE CNTRL
APPALACHIANS THROUGH ERN TX...FEEL THAT THIS INCREASED RH COULD BE
MORE INDICATIVE OF SOME FOG POTENTIAL RATHER THAN PCPN POTENTIAL.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...UNDER INCREASING LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND
BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT...EXPECT THAT TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY WILL
LIKELY BE AROUND 5 DEGREES HIGHER THAN THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MIDDLE 60S. FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN MILD WITH DEWPOINTS
INCREASING INTO LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S THROUGH FRIDAY AND INTO FRIDAY
EVENING...SO OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY MORNING SHOULD BE UNSEASONABLY
MILD...AND ONLY DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.
KREIN
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
500MB TROUGH AXIS WILL BE PIVOTING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...WITH A TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING SOUTH AND
EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY MORNING.
MID-LVL HEIGHTS WILL STEADILY RISE AS THE RIDGE PARKED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS PUSHES EAST...BRINGING MILDER AIR TO THE REGION SAT
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPR 60S. THE FAR SOUTHERN CWFA COULD TOUCH 70
DEG SAT. TEMPS SUN ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER AS THE FLOW
BEGINS TO TRANSITION BRIEFLY INTO A QUASI-ZONAL SETUP. HOWEVER THIS
DOES NOT LOOK TO REMAIN VERY LONG...AS RIDGING RETURNS FOR MON AND
TEMPS SHUD QUICKLY WARM INTO THE 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. A WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT ACROSS THE AREA EARLY MON...AS SOUTHERLY
FLOW STRENGTHENS. EXPECT MUCH OF THE DAY MON TO REMAIN DRY...HOWEVER
LATE AFTN/EVE A DEVELOPING LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS MAY HELP TO
GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATE MON.
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE
RIDGING OVERHEAD WILL SHIFT EAST...WITH FLOW TRYING TO FLATTEN.
SUGGESTING THAT A SEMI-ZONAL SETUP MAY DEVELOP BY WED...WHICH WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. TEMPS SHUD RETURN TO
MORE SEASONAL CONDS TUE/WED.
BEACHLER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...
* CIGS LOWER THIS EVENING...MVFR POSSIBLE.
* MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE TONIGHT.
* SLIGHT CHANCE -SHRA LATE THIS EVENING.
MDB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 20Z...
IFR HAS CLEARED RFD AND SHOULD STAY AWAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY HAS DEVELOPED CLOSE TO THE LAKESHORE AND HAS
MADE INLAND PROGRESS ACROSS LAKE COUNTY ILLINOIS. EXPECT THIS TO
REMAIN EAST OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE
EXPECT LIGHT WINDS WITH A VARIABLE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST DIRECTION.
FROM 18Z...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION CONTINUES TO PROVIDE LIGHT WINDS
WHICH HAVE BEEN VARIABLE BETWEEN SOUTH AND WEST. WILL SEE A
STEADIER SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST DIRECTION DEVELOP INTO THE EVENING AS
THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD. FEW-SCT MVFR CLOUDS LINGER ACROSS
NORTHWEST INDIANA WITH MOST AREAS VFR. LOW CIGS/VSBY REMAIN ACROSS
RFD BUT IS QUICKLY ERODING NORTHWESTWARD SO EXPECT VFR AT RFD BY
19Z OR SO.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WHICH WILL BRING
LOWERING CLOUD COVER. EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TO AT LEAST LOW END VFR
WITH MVFR POSSIBLE GOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE BUT SHOULD BE BRIEF AND SPOTTY IN COVERAGE. CIGS MAY
FURTHER LOWER TO LOWER END MVFR OVERNIGHT BUT AM NOT HIGHLY
CONFIDENT IN THIS OCCURRING. MAY ALSO SEE VSBY LOWER TO MVFR ACROSS
MOST AREAS AS WELL. AM A LITTLE MORE CONCERNED ABOUT IFR POTENTIAL
AT RFD GIVEN HIGHER RESIDUAL MOISTURE THANKS TO THE STRATUS/FOG
HANGING ON SO LONG TODAY. MAY NEED TO CARRY LOWER CONDITIONS WITH
LATER UPDATES. WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY SATURDAY MORNING AS
DRIER AIR WORKS IN. THIS WILL ERODE ANY LOW CIGS/VSBY ALLOWING FOR
VFR TO PREVAIL BY MID/LATE MORNING IF NOT SOONER.
MDB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS LOWERING TO LOWER END VFR THIS
EVENING...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN MVFR VSBY TONIGHT.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THREAT FOR -SHRA IS LOW LATE THIS EVENING.
MDB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR. WX NIL.
SUNDAY...VFR. WX NIL.
MONDAY...VFR. WX NIL.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...CHANCE SHRA/SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT...SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR. WX NIL.
KREIN
&&
.MARINE...
228 PM CDT
HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOWLY PUSHING EAST WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER
THE LAKE. A WEAK LAKE BREEZE HAS TURNED WINDS ONSHORE OVER LAKE
COUNTY IL. SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO 20-25 KT THIS EVENING WITH
OCNL 30 KT GUSTS PSBL OVER THE NORTH HALF OF THE LAKE OVERNIGHT.
WINDS TURN W 20-25 KT BEHIND THE FRONT AND SLOWLY BECOME NW SATURDAY
NIGHT. POINTS NORTH OF WILMETTE HARBOR MAY SEE OCNL GUSTS TO 25 KT
TOMORROW...BUT THINKING SUSTAINED SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE
MET. WINDS DIMINISH AS A HIGH MOVES OVER THE LAKE SUNDAY. WINDS
BECOME SOUTH BEHIND THE LOW AND THEN TURN SE AND INCREASE TO 20-25
KT AS THE NEXT LOW APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF
VARIABILITY IN THE STRENGTH AND PATH OF THE NEXT LOW SO CONFIDENCE
IS LOW IN THE EXACT WIND SPEEDS. ONE MODEL DOES FEATURE WESTERLY
GALES ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT DO NOT HAVE
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO GO THAT HIGH IN THE FORECAST JUST YET. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN MID NEXT WEEK AND WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISH WEDNESDAY.
STILL THINKING THERE IS A MARGINAL CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
TO BE MET MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON
HEADLINES FOR NOW.
JEE
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
250 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014
19z/2pm satellite imagery shows low clouds that persisted for much
of the day across west-central Illinois have finally dissipated,
with just one small patch remaining from south of Lincoln to near
Taylorville. Based on satellite trends, this patch will dissipate
over the next hour or so as well, leading to mostly clear skies late
this afternoon into the early evening. Main short-term forecast
concern will be the potential re-development of low clouds/fog
tonight as a weak trough of low pressure moves through the area.
While the overall depth of the atmosphere will be very dry, a
shallow surface-based moist layer will remain in place. With no
deep-layer moisture to work with, precip is not expected to develop
along the trough despite the NAM hinting at some overnight. As winds
become light/variable and cloud cover associated with the passing
trough begins to clear from northwest to southeast after midnight,
fog will begin to develop. HRRR is showing widespread fog once
again forming across central/eastern Iowa, then spreading into the
Illinois River Valley toward dawn. As a result, will carry areas of
fog along/west of the Illinois River, with patchy fog as far east as
Champaign/Danville. Due to cloud cover and light southerly winds,
low temperatures will be quite a bit warmer than in recent nights,
with readings remaining in the lower to middle 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Friday)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014
Saturday will start off with some morning fog, mainly N of I-70. The
fog should burn off around mid-morning, as a cold front pushes east
across IL. Some cooler air associated with the front will be mainly
confined to northern IL, with our 850mb temps still remaining the
12-14C range in the post-frontal airmass. Dry-adiabatic warming of
that layer to the surface, coupled with some sunshine should help
push high temps into the low 70s N of I-74 with upper 70s S of
I-70. NW winds will still develop behind the front, so a brief
chill may be added to the air at times.
Mid level warming will develop Saturday night into Sunday, as 850mb
temps climb toward +16C. That warm layer will linger into Monday.
Southerly winds will develop Sunday afternoon once the surface ridge
axis moves east of IL, so highs should once again climb into the 70s
across the board. On Monday, a few 80 degree readings will possible
on Monday across southwest and southeast portions of the forecast
area, which would be nearly 20 degrees above normal for late
October. Record highs for Monday are in the mid 80s and currently
appear safe.
A long wave trough is forecast to move across the northern
Plains on Monday night, with cold front progressing across IL
Tuesday morning and early afternoon. The ECMWF indicates a more
dynamic system developing in the western Great Lakes on Tuesday,
while the GFS remains a bit more progressive and less strong with
the frontal passage in our area of IL. We did maintain widespread
chance PoPs Monday night, as moisture pooling and lift still appear
to be sufficient a band of rain to affect central IL. We continued
the likely PoPs in SE Illinois for Tuesday, but chances should
diminish Tue afternoon as the main forcing for precip departs into
Indiana, and dry air quickly filters into the area aloft.
A significant cool down is agreed upon by the GFS and ECMWF for
Tuesday and Tuesday night, as 850mb temps plummet to 0 to -3C by
midday Wednesday. That will bring temps back below normal for highs
Wed, with upper 50s north of I-74, with low 60s south near
Jacksonville to Lawrenceville.
Another cold front is indicated for Thursday, with better agreement
on timing of the front between the GFS and ECMWF. Confidence is
increasing that a band of light rain showers may accompany that
front. So low chances for rain was added to the Thurs forecast,
mainly from the Illinois river to I-55.
The GFS is a about 4-5 degrees colder and the ECMWF behind the
front, with 850mb readings in the -2 to -4C range Friday afternoon.
We will continue with the cooling trend for late week. Some freezing
temps could develop for Friday night N of I-74 if the GFS scenario
pans out.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014
Low clouds are rapidly dissipating across the area early this
afternoon, with 1730z visible satellite imagery showing one
persistent band from KGBG to KTAZ. Based on satellite trends,
will hold on to IFR ceilings at KSPI for one more hour before
clearing things out by 19z. Once these clouds dissipate, only
FEW-SCT diurnal Cu and high/thin cirrus will be noted for the
balance of the day. Main aviation question will be how low
ceilings will go tonight as trough axis approaches from the
northwest. NAM forecast soundings and latest HRRR both suggest at
least MVFR ceilings spreading in from the NW between 02z and 05z.
This band of low clouds will begin clearing out after midnight,
which will likely lead to fog development toward dawn. Given a
similar airmass to last night and winds expected to become
light/variable in the vicinity of the trough, have reduced visbys
to between 1 and 3 miles at the terminals. Once the trough passes,
winds will veer to the W/NW and any low clouds/fog will clear out
by Saturday morning.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Shimon
AVIATION...Barnes
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
229 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014
.DISCUSSION...
326 AM CDT
SHORT TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING...THE INITIAL
CONCERN WILL BE CLOUD COVER...AND IMPACTS ON VISIBILITY. FOLLOWING
THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK SFC TROUGH/PACIFIC-SOURCED WEAK COLD
FRONT...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE HAS BUILT ACROSS THE REGION. A LOW
STRATUS DECK HAS BEEN IN PLACE FOLLOWING THE FROPA...BUT THE STRATUS
DECK IS ERODING IN PLACES...AND WITH CALM TO LGT/VRBL WINDS IN
PLACE...THE CLEARING LOCATIONS ARE EXPERIENCING RAPID FOG
DEVELOPMENT. THE FOG IS INITIALLY MOSTLY IMPACTING NWRN IL...ARND
THE ROCKFORD AREA...BUT AS THE STRATUS CONTINUES TO
DISSIPATE...ADDITIONAL FOG MAY DEVELOP...BUT ANY DENSE FOG SHOULD BE
LIMITED TO NORTH CENTRAL AND NWRN IL...AWAY FROM THE CHICAGO METRO
AREA. EXCEPT FOR LOCATIONS THAT CLEAR OUT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
GENERALLY BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S...EXCEPT FOR SOME
ISOLATED...SHELTERED LOW LYING AREAS...WHICH COULD RADIATE DOWN INTO
THE UPPER 40S.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF FRIDAY...THE WARMING TREND SHOULD CONTINUE AS
UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE
WESTERN PLAINS. THE MORNING STRATUS AND STRATOCU SHOULD DISSIPATE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...BUT TOTAL SUNSHINE WILL BE LIMITED AS A
THICK CIRRUS LAYER AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
JET STREAM DIVES OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE
MIDWEST. THE SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE IS ALSO INDICATING SOME SHORTWAVE
ENERGY OVERTOPPING THE RIDGE THIS EVENING...WITH SOME GUIDANCE
INDICATING A LITTLE QPF. HAVE A HARD TIME INTRODUCING ANY
MENTIONABLE POPS WITH THIS SYSTEM AS MOISTURE PROFILE FORECASTS ALSO
INDICATE LITTLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. HOWEVER...SOME OF THE HIGH RES
SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IS SHOWING SOME INCREASE RH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
UNDER INCREASINGLY SWLY FLOW...BUT AS FLOW OFF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
WILL BE LIMITED BY HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE CNTRL
APPALACHIANS THROUGH ERN TX...FEEL THAT THIS INCREASED RH COULD BE
MORE INDICATIVE OF SOME FOG POTENTIAL RATHER THAN PCPN POTENTIAL.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...UNDER INCREASING LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND
BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT...EXPECT THAT TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY WILL
LIKELY BE AROUND 5 DEGREES HIGHER THAN THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MIDDLE 60S. FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN MILD WITH DEWPOINTS
INCREASING INTO LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S THROUGH FRIDAY AND INTO FRIDAY
EVENING...SO OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY MORNING SHOULD BE UNSEASONABLY
MILD...AND ONLY DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.
KREIN
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
500MB TROUGH AXIS WILL BE PIVOTING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...WITH A TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING SOUTH AND
EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY MORNING.
MID-LVL HEIGHTS WILL STEADILY RISE AS THE RIDGE PARKED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS PUSHES EAST...BRINGING MILDER AIR TO THE REGION SAT
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPR 60S. THE FAR SOUTHERN CWFA COULD TOUCH 70
DEG SAT. TEMPS SUN ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER AS THE FLOW
BEGINS TO TRANSITION BRIEFLY INTO A QUASI-ZONAL SETUP. HOWEVER THIS
DOES NOT LOOK TO REMAIN VERY LONG...AS RIDGING RETURNS FOR MON AND
TEMPS SHUD QUICKLY WARM INTO THE 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. A WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT ACROSS THE AREA EARLY MON...AS SOUTHERLY
FLOW STRENGTHENS. EXPECT MUCH OF THE DAY MON TO REMAIN DRY...HOWEVER
LATE AFTN/EVE A DEVELOPING LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS MAY HELP TO
GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATE MON.
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE
RIDGING OVERHEAD WILL SHIFT EAST...WITH FLOW TRYING TO FLATTEN.
SUGGESTING THAT A SEMI-ZONAL SETUP MAY DEVELOP BY WED...WHICH WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. TEMPS SHUD RETURN TO
MORE SEASONAL CONDS TUE/WED.
BEACHLER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* CIGS LOWER THIS EVENING...MVFR POSSIBLE.
* MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE TONIGHT.
* SLIGHT CHANCE -SHRA LATE THIS EVENING.
MDB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION CONTINUES TO PROVIDE LIGHT WINDS
WHICH HAVE BEEN VARIABLE BETWEEN SOUTH AND WEST. WILL SEE A
STEADIER SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST DIRECTION DEVELOP INTO THE EVENING AS
THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD. FEW-SCT MVFR CLOUDS LINGER ACROSS
NORTHWEST INDIANA WITH MOST AREAS VFR. LOW CIGS/VSBY REMAIN ACROSS
RFD BUT IS QUICKLY ERODING NORTHWESTWARD SO EXPECT VFR AT RFD BY
19Z OR SO.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WHICH WILL BRING
LOWERING CLOUD COVER. EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TO AT LEAST LOW END VFR
WITH MVFR POSSIBLE GOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE BUT SHOULD BE BRIEF AND SPOTTY IN COVERAGE. CIGS MAY
FURTHER LOWER TO LOWER END MVFR OVERNIGHT BUT AM NOT HIGHLY
CONFIDENT IN THIS OCCURRING. MAY ALSO SEE VSBY LOWER TO MVFR ACROSS
MOST AREAS AS WELL. AM A LITTLE MORE CONCERNED ABOUT IFR POTENTIAL
AT RFD GIVEN HIGHER RESIDUAL MOISTURE THANKS TO THE STRATUS/FOG
HANGING ON SO LONG TODAY. MAY NEED TO CARRY LOWER CONDITIONS WITH
LATER UPDATES. WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY SATURDAY MORNING AS
DRIER AIR WORKS IN. THIS WILL ERODE ANY LOW CIGS/VSBY ALLOWING FOR
VFR TO PREVAIL BY MID/LATE MORNING IF NOT SOONER.
MDB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS LOWERING TO LOWER END VFR THIS
EVENING...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN MVFR VSBY TONIGHT.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THREAT FOR -SHRA IS LOW LATE THIS EVENING.
MDB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR. WX NIL.
SUNDAY...VFR. WX NIL.
MONDAY...VFR. WX NIL.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...CHANCE SHRA/SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT...SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR. WX NIL.
KREIN
&&
.MARINE...
228 PM CDT
HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOWLY PUSHING EAST WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER
THE LAKE. A WEAK LAKE BREEZE HAS TURNED WINDS ONSHORE OVER LAKE
COUNTY IL. SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO 20-25 KT THIS EVENING WITH
OCNL 30 KT GUSTS PSBL OVER THE NORTH HALF OF THE LAKE OVERNIGHT.
WINDS TURN W 20-25 KT BEHIND THE FRONT AND SLOWLY BECOME NW SATURDAY
NIGHT. POINTS NORTH OF WILMETTE HARBOR MAY SEE OCNL GUSTS TO 25 KT
TOMORROW...BUT THINKING SUSTAINED SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE
MET. WINDS DIMINISH AS A HIGH MOVES OVER THE LAKE SUNDAY. WINDS
BECOME SOUTH BEHIND THE LOW AND THEN TURN SE AND INCREASE TO 20-25
KT AS THE NEXT LOW APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF
VARIABILITY IN THE STRENGTH AND PATH OF THE NEXT LOW SO CONFIDENCE
IS LOW IN THE EXACT WIND SPEEDS. ONE MODEL DOES FEATURE WESTERLY
GALES ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT DO NOT HAVE
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO GO THAT HIGH IN THE FORECAST JUST YET. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN MID NEXT WEEK AND WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISH WEDNESDAY.
STILL THINKING THERE IS A MARGINAL CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
TO BE MET MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON
HEADLINES FOR NOW.
JEE
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1257 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1043 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014
Low clouds and fog continue to blanket west-central Illinois this
morning, mainly along/west of a Peoria to Taylorville line. A
Dense Fog Advisory remains in effect for this area through noon.
So far, very little erosion of the low cloud cover has been noted
on visible satellite imagery, although the process will likely
begin within the next hour or two, as it did yesterday across
Iowa. HRRR shows this as well, with skies becoming partly sunny
across all but the far northwest KILX CWA by mid-afternoon. If
trends continue, eastern Iowa/northwest Illinois may remain cloudy
for the entire day. Further east, southerly winds and at least
partial sunshine will help boost afternoon highs into the middle
to upper 60s across central Illinois. Forecast update has already
been issued.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 235 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014
A weak short wave continues to move through the eastern parts of the
CWA this morning, but this should be out of the state by time the
new forecast is issued, or shortly after. The main concern this
morning is the development and advection of stratus clouds and fog
early this morning. Dense fog is present across most of eastern Iowa
this morning and the HRRR model advects this into the area for this
morning. This will keep lots of clouds in the area for this morning,
and could affect max temps for this afternoon, depending on how
quickly the clouds dissipate. Models have it diminishing during
the late morning hours. And with winds becoming southerly by
afternoon, believe some dissipation of the clouds will happen. So
will have less clouds during the afternoon. However, afternoon
high temps may not be as high as first forecast, so have decreased
max temps 1-2 degrees from previous forecast. MAV guidance is
higher than MET by several degrees, so took a compromise between
the two due to cloud cover issues.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 235 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014
Main forecast issue this weekend and into Monday involves
temperatures. Latest model runs for Saturday have been warmer, as
main core of cooler air associated with a frontal boundary track
more across the Great Lakes region. Have bumped up Saturday highs by
a couple degrees. 850 mb warm front progged to lift through the area
late Saturday night and early Sunday, with +16C temperatures
spreading across central Illinois Sunday afternoon, lingering into
Monday. Have also raised highs several degrees both Sunday and
Monday, with a few 80 degree readings possible on Monday across
southwest and southeast portions of the forecast area. Record highs
for Monday are in the mid 80s and currently appear safe.
Split upper flow early next week focuses the deeper part of the next
wave along the northern stream. Model guidance is fairly uniform
with rain chances Monday night through about midday Tuesday, and
pretty much has the forecast area dry by sunset as a high pressure
ridge quickly builds into the mid-Mississippi Valley. However, the
guidance diverges later in the week. The ECMWF persists in a rather
broad trough along the Mississippi River midday Thursday, but now
significantly ramps up rain chances along the associated surface
front. The GFS has a weaker, more progressive wave with little
precipitation. Have leaned more toward the progressive solution for
now. The ECMWF also persists in developing a large closed low over
the Great Lakes late week, which would pump significantly cooler air
into Illinois. Meanwhile, the GFS builds a ridge eastward, with much
warmer air (850 mb temperatures range from -5C to +8C between the
two models). However, this particular aspect is just beyond the
current forecast range, but will need to be addressed with the
afternoon forecast issuance.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014
Low clouds are rapidly dissipating across the area early this
afternoon, with 1730z visible satellite imagery showing one
persistent band from KGBG to KTAZ. Based on satellite trends,
will hold on to IFR ceilings at KSPI for one more hour before
clearing things out by 19z. Once these clouds dissipate, only
FEW-SCT diurnal Cu and high/thin cirrus will be noted for the
balance of the day. Main aviation question will be how low
ceilings will go tonight as trough axis approaches from the
northwest. NAM forecast soundings and latest HRRR both suggest at
least MVFR ceilings spreading in from the NW between 02z and 05z.
This band of low clouds will begin clearing out after midnight,
which will likely lead to fog development toward dawn. Given a
similar airmass to last night and winds expected to become
light/variable in the vicinity of the trough, have reduced visbys
to between 1 and 3 miles at the terminals. Once the trough passes,
winds will veer to the W/NW and any low clouds/fog will clear out
by Saturday morning.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Barnes
SHORT TERM...Auten
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Barnes
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1112 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014
.DISCUSSION...
326 AM CDT
SHORT TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING...THE INITIAL
CONCERN WILL BE CLOUD COVER...AND IMPACTS ON VISIBILITY. FOLLOWING
THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK SFC TROUGH/PACIFIC-SOURCED WEAK COLD
FRONT...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE HAS BUILT ACROSS THE REGION. A LOW
STRATUS DECK HAS BEEN IN PLACE FOLLOWING THE FROPA...BUT THE STRATUS
DECK IS ERODING IN PLACES...AND WITH CALM TO LGT/VRBL WINDS IN
PLACE...THE CLEARING LOCATIONS ARE EXPERIENCING RAPID FOG
DEVELOPMENT. THE FOG IS INITIALLY MOSTLY IMPACTING NWRN IL...ARND
THE ROCKFORD AREA...BUT AS THE STRATUS CONTINUES TO
DISSIPATE...ADDITIONAL FOG MAY DEVELOP...BUT ANY DENSE FOG SHOULD BE
LIMITED TO NORTH CENTRAL AND NWRN IL...AWAY FROM THE CHICAGO METRO
AREA. EXCEPT FOR LOCATIONS THAT CLEAR OUT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
GENERALLY BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S...EXCEPT FOR SOME
ISOLATED...SHELTERED LOW LYING AREAS...WHICH COULD RADIATE DOWN INTO
THE UPPER 40S.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF FRIDAY...THE WARMING TREND SHOULD CONTINUE AS
UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE
WESTERN PLAINS. THE MORNING STRATUS AND STRATOCU SHOULD DISSIPATE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...BUT TOTAL SUNSHINE WILL BE LIMITED AS A
THICK CIRRUS LAYER AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
JET STREAM DIVES OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE
MIDWEST. THE SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE IS ALSO INDICATING SOME SHORTWAVE
ENERGY OVERTOPPING THE RIDGE THIS EVENING...WITH SOME GUIDANCE
INDICATING A LITTLE QPF. HAVE A HARD TIME INTRODUCING ANY
MENTIONABLE POPS WITH THIS SYSTEM AS MOISTURE PROFILE FORECASTS ALSO
INDICATE LITTLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. HOWEVER...SOME OF THE HIGH RES
SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IS SHOWING SOME INCREASE RH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
UNDER INCREASINGLY SWLY FLOW...BUT AS FLOW OFF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
WILL BE LIMITED BY HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE CNTRL
APPALACHIANS THROUGH ERN TX...FEEL THAT THIS INCREASED RH COULD BE
MORE INDICATIVE OF SOME FOG POTENTIAL RATHER THAN PCPN POTENTIAL.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...UNDER INCREASING LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND
BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT...EXPECT THAT TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY WILL
LIKELY BE AROUND 5 DEGREES HIGHER THAN THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MIDDLE 60S. FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN MILD WITH DEWPOINTS
INCREASING INTO LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S THROUGH FRIDAY AND INTO FRIDAY
EVENING...SO OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY MORNING SHOULD BE UNSEASONABLY
MILD...AND ONLY DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.
KREIN
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
500MB TROUGH AXIS WILL BE PIVOTING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...WITH A TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING SOUTH AND
EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY MORNING.
MID-LVL HEIGHTS WILL STEADILY RISE AS THE RIDGE PARKED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS PUSHES EAST...BRINGING MILDER AIR TO THE REGION SAT
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPR 60S. THE FAR SOUTHERN CWFA COULD TOUCH 70
DEG SAT. TEMPS SUN ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER AS THE FLOW
BEGINS TO TRANSITION BRIEFLY INTO A QUASI-ZONAL SETUP. HOWEVER THIS
DOES NOT LOOK TO REMAIN VERY LONG...AS RIDGING RETURNS FOR MON AND
TEMPS SHUD QUICKLY WARM INTO THE 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. A WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT ACROSS THE AREA EARLY MON...AS SOUTHERLY
FLOW STRENGTHENS. EXPECT MUCH OF THE DAY MON TO REMAIN DRY...HOWEVER
LATE AFTN/EVE A DEVELOPING LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS MAY HELP TO
GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATE MON.
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE
RIDGING OVERHEAD WILL SHIFT EAST...WITH FLOW TRYING TO FLATTEN.
SUGGESTING THAT A SEMI-ZONAL SETUP MAY DEVELOP BY WED...WHICH WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. TEMPS SHUD RETURN TO
MORE SEASONAL CONDS TUE/WED.
BEACHLER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...
* PATCH OF MVFR 025-030 CIGS EXPECTED TO SCATTER/CLEAR AT MDW BY
17Z.
* MVFR CIGS/VSBY LIKELY AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. IFR CIGS/VSBY POSSIBLE.
MDB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 16Z...
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO ERODE FROM PWK TO DPA TO JOT TO PIA AND POINTS
EAST WITH A LARGE GAP IN COVERAGE HAVING DEVELOPED. A PATCH OF
025-030 STRATUS IS LINGERING FROM MDW TO GYY BUT EXPECT SCATTERING
AT MDW SOON WITH A PERIOD OF BKN SKIES AT GYY PRIOR TO 18Z.
OTHERWISE...EXPANSIVE AREA OF LIFR AND LOWER CIGS/VSBY REMAINS
PERSISTENT TO THE WEST. THE EASTERN FLANK OF THIS HAS SHOWN SOME
VERY SLOW DRIFT TO THE EAST SO AM A LITTLE CONCERNED THAT CLOUDS
COULD FILL IN A BIT AGAIN AT DPA SO WILL KEEP SCATTERED MENTION
THERE BUT THE LONGER IT TAKES FOR ANY CLOUDS TO ARRIVE THERE THE
HIGHER THEY WOULD LIKELY BE THANKS TO SOME WARMING IN THE
MEANTIME. OTHERWISE HAVE FURTHER SLOWED IMPROVEMENT AT RFD AND MAY
STILL BE A BIT FAST...ESPECIALLY SINCE FAIRLY DENSE CIRRUS IS
MOVING IN OVERHEAD. OTHERWISE LIGHT AND VARIABLE SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED.
MDB
FROM 12Z...
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK SFC TROUGH...HOWEVER...AN AREA OF
STRATUS FILTERED IN BEHIND THE WEAK BOUNDARY. LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE STRATUS IS BREAKING UP OVER NRN IL AND
IN LOCATIONS THAT HAD SEEN SOME PCPN YESTERDAY...MAINLY ARND THE
RFD AREA...SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS FORMED...THOUGH OF THE TAF
SITES...ONLY RFD HAS OBSERVED THE DENSE FOG. BASED ON THE LATEST
HIGH RES MODEL GUIDANCE AND SATELLITE TRENDS...ANTICIPATE THAT
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR OVER THE AREA BY LATE MORNING.
ANOTHER SFC TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS TO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL BECOME SSWLY
THOUGH THE DAY...THOUGH WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT...WIND
SPEEDS SHOULD BE LESS THAN 10KT THROUGH THE DAY. FOR THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS...A MODEST MID LEVEL IMPULSE IS EXPECTED TO CROSS
THE AREA INVOF THE WI/IL BORDER. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THIS
SYSTEM COULD TRIGGER SOME ISOLD/SCT -SHRA...BUT CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING AND COVERAGE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE PCPN IN THE TAFS AT THIS
TIME. CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAT MORE FOG SHOULD DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...PER THE LATEST HIGH RES MODEL RH
TIME SECTIONS...SO HAVE INTRODUCED IFR VIS FOR LATE THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. SOME GUIDANCE IS POINTING TOWARD THE POSSIBILITY OF
VIS DROPPING TO 1/4SM...BUT GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED...DO NOT HAVE HIGH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO DROP VIS LOWER
THAN 1SM FOR NOW.
KREIN
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS SCATTERING/CLEARING MDW BY AROUND
17Z.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIG TRENDS LATE TONIGHT.
* LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN VSBY TRENDS LATE TONIGHT.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS.
MDB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR. WX NIL.
SUNDAY...VFR. WX NIL.
MONDAY...VFR. WX NIL.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...CHANCE SHRA/SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT...SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR. WX NIL.
KREIN
&&
.MARINE...
215 AM CDT
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM WESTERN QUEBEC
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. THIS RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST OF THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...MEANWHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA
CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST TOWARDS HUDSON BAY SATURDAY. THE GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...THEN SLOWLY TURN
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY. AS THE LOW NEARS HUDSON BAY ON SATURDAY...A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL TRAIL AND SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN. THIS WILL RESULT IN WINDS TURNING WEST/NORTHWEST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. COOLER AIR WILL FLOW ACROSS THE LAKE
ALONG WITH A TIGHTENING GRADIENT...RESULTING IN INCREASING WINDS
NEARING 30KT AT TIMES. THEN ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
QUICKLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST/NORTHERN PLAINS
SUNDAY...STEADILY DIMINISHING THE GRADIENT. ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...THEN APPROACH LAKE MICHIGAN CLOSER TO MID-WEEK. THIS WILL
BRING WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH OCCASIONALLY WINDS GUSTING
TO 30KT.
BEACHLER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1043 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1043 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014
Low clouds and fog continue to blanket west-central Illinois this
morning, mainly along/west of a Peoria to Taylorville line. A
Dense Fog Advisory remains in effect for this area through noon.
So far, very little erosion of the low cloud cover has been noted
on visible satellite imagery, although the process will likely
begin within the next hour or two, as it did yesterday across
Iowa. HRRR shows this as well, with skies becoming partly sunny
across all but the far northwest KILX CWA by mid-afternoon. If
trends continue, eastern Iowa/northwest Illinois may remain cloudy
for the entire day. Further east, southerly winds and at least
partial sunshine will help boost afternoon highs into the middle
to upper 60s across central Illinois. Forecast update has already
been issued.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 235 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014
A weak short wave continues to move through the eastern parts of the
CWA this morning, but this should be out of the state by time the
new forecast is issued, or shortly after. The main concern this
morning is the development and advection of stratus clouds and fog
early this morning. Dense fog is present across most of eastern Iowa
this morning and the HRRR model advects this into the area for this
morning. This will keep lots of clouds in the area for this morning,
and could affect max temps for this afternoon, depending on how
quickly the clouds dissipate. Models have it diminishing during
the late morning hours. And with winds becoming southerly by
afternoon, believe some dissipation of the clouds will happen. So
will have less clouds during the afternoon. However, afternoon
high temps may not be as high as first forecast, so have decreased
max temps 1-2 degrees from previous forecast. MAV guidance is
higher than MET by several degrees, so took a compromise between
the two due to cloud cover issues.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 235 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014
Main forecast issue this weekend and into Monday involves
temperatures. Latest model runs for Saturday have been warmer, as
main core of cooler air associated with a frontal boundary track
more across the Great Lakes region. Have bumped up Saturday highs by
a couple degrees. 850 mb warm front progged to lift through the area
late Saturday night and early Sunday, with +16C temperatures
spreading across central Illinois Sunday afternoon, lingering into
Monday. Have also raised highs several degrees both Sunday and
Monday, with a few 80 degree readings possible on Monday across
southwest and southeast portions of the forecast area. Record highs
for Monday are in the mid 80s and currently appear safe.
Split upper flow early next week focuses the deeper part of the next
wave along the northern stream. Model guidance is fairly uniform
with rain chances Monday night through about midday Tuesday, and
pretty much has the forecast area dry by sunset as a high pressure
ridge quickly builds into the mid-Mississippi Valley. However, the
guidance diverges later in the week. The ECMWF persists in a rather
broad trough along the Mississippi River midday Thursday, but now
significantly ramps up rain chances along the associated surface
front. The GFS has a weaker, more progressive wave with little
precipitation. Have leaned more toward the progressive solution for
now. The ECMWF also persists in developing a large closed low over
the Great Lakes late week, which would pump significantly cooler air
into Illinois. Meanwhile, the GFS builds a ridge eastward, with much
warmer air (850 mb temperatures range from -5C to +8C between the
two models). However, this particular aspect is just beyond the
current forecast range, but will need to be addressed with the
afternoon forecast issuance.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
ISSUED AT 644 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014
Complicated forecast for the first 6hrs with some of the TAFs this
morning. An area of stratus and very low vis is slowly moving east
into the area and is already effecting SPI, and should effect PIA
in next couple of hours. Question is how far east will this area
of IFR/LIFR conditions get...will it effect BMI/DEC and CMI.
Believe it will effect DEC and BMI some, but not as much as SPI
and PIA. Conditions should improve this morning, around 16z at PIA
and SPI, but still remain lower MVFR for the rest of the morning.
HRRR model brings some of the lower cigs into BMI and DEC, but not
as long. So going to be a little bit more optimistic at these
sites this morning and just have IFR cigs for this morning at DEC
and lower MVFR at BMI. CMI will have just a TEMPO group for cigs
around 1kft this morning. Conditions should be VFR this afternoon,
but models bring more MVFR cigs back into the area this evening
and continue into the overnight hours. Winds will be light and
variable this morning, but then become more south-southwest for
the rest of the TAF period. Speeds this afternoon will be around
5-10kts.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY until Noon CDT today FOR ILZ027>031-036-037-
040-041-047>051.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Barnes
SHORT TERM...Auten
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Auten
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
659 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014
.DISCUSSION...
326 AM CDT
SHORT TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING...THE INITIAL
CONCERN WILL BE CLOUD COVER...AND IMPACTS ON VISIBILITY. FOLLOWING
THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK SFC TROUGH/PACIFIC-SOURCED WEAK COLD
FRONT...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE HAS BUILT ACROSS THE REGION. A LOW
STRATUS DECK HAS BEEN IN PLACE FOLLOWING THE FROPA...BUT THE STRATUS
DECK IS ERODING IN PLACES...AND WITH CALM TO LGT/VRBL WINDS IN
PLACE...THE CLEARING LOCATIONS ARE EXPERIENCING RAPID FOG
DEVELOPMENT. THE FOG IS INITIALLY MOSTLY IMPACTING NWRN IL...ARND
THE ROCKFORD AREA...BUT AS THE STRATUS CONTINUES TO
DISSIPATE...ADDITIONAL FOG MAY DEVELOP...BUT ANY DENSE FOG SHOULD BE
LIMITED TO NORTH CENTRAL AND NWRN IL...AWAY FROM THE CHICAGO METRO
AREA. EXCEPT FOR LOCATIONS THAT CLEAR OUT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
GENERALLY BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S...EXCEPT FOR SOME
ISOLATED...SHELTERED LOW LYING AREAS...WHICH COULD RADIATE DOWN INTO
THE UPPER 40S.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF FRIDAY...THE WARMING TREND SHOULD CONTINUE AS
UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE
WESTERN PLAINS. THE MORNING STRATUS AND STRATOCU SHOULD DISSIPATE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...BUT TOTAL SUNSHINE WILL BE LIMITED AS A
THICK CIRRUS LAYER AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
JET STREAM DIVES OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE
MIDWEST. THE SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE IS ALSO INDICATING SOME SHORTWAVE
ENERGY OVERTOPPING THE RIDGE THIS EVENING...WITH SOME GUIDANCE
INDICATING A LITTLE QPF. HAVE A HARD TIME INTRODUCING ANY
MENTIONABLE POPS WITH THIS SYSTEM AS MOISTURE PROFILE FORECASTS ALSO
INDICATE LITTLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. HOWEVER...SOME OF THE HIGH RES
SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IS SHOWING SOME INCREASE RH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
UNDER INCREASINGLY SWLY FLOW...BUT AS FLOW OFF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
WILL BE LIMITED BY HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE CNTRL
APPALACHIANS THROUGH ERN TX...FEEL THAT THIS INCREASED RH COULD BE
MORE INDICATIVE OF SOME FOG POTENTIAL RATHER THAN PCPN POTENTIAL.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...UNDER INCREASING LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND
BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT...EXPECT THAT TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY WILL
LIKELY BE AROUND 5 DEGREES HIGHER THAN THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MIDDLE 60S. FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN MILD WITH DEWPOINTS
INCREASING INTO LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S THROUGH FRIDAY AND INTO FRIDAY
EVENING...SO OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY MORNING SHOULD BE UNSEASONABLY
MILD...AND ONLY DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.
KREIN
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
500MB TROUGH AXIS WILL BE PIVOTING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...WITH A TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING SOUTH AND
EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY MORNING.
MID-LVL HEIGHTS WILL STEADILY RISE AS THE RIDGE PARKED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS PUSHES EAST...BRINGING MILDER AIR TO THE REGION SAT
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPR 60S. THE FAR SOUTHERN CWFA COULD TOUCH 70
DEG SAT. TEMPS SUN ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER AS THE FLOW
BEGINS TO TRANSITION BRIEFLY INTO A QUASI-ZONAL SETUP. HOWEVER THIS
DOES NOT LOOK TO REMAIN VERY LONG...AS RIDGING RETURNS FOR MON AND
TEMPS SHUD QUICKLY WARM INTO THE 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. A WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT ACROSS THE AREA EARLY MON...AS SOUTHERLY
FLOW STRENGTHENS. EXPECT MUCH OF THE DAY MON TO REMAIN DRY...HOWEVER
LATE AFTN/EVE A DEVELOPING LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS MAY HELP TO
GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATE MON.
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE
RIDGING OVERHEAD WILL SHIFT EAST...WITH FLOW TRYING TO FLATTEN.
SUGGESTING THAT A SEMI-ZONAL SETUP MAY DEVELOP BY WED...WHICH WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. TEMPS SHUD RETURN TO
MORE SEASONAL CONDS TUE/WED.
BEACHLER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 12Z...
* MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE MORNING.
* MVFR CIGS/VIS LIKELY AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. IFR CIGS/VIS POSSIBLE.
KREIN
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK SFC TROUGH...HOWEVER...AN AREA OF
STRATUS FILTERED IN BEHIND THE WEAK BOUNDARY. LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE STRATUS IS BREAKING UP OVER NRN IL AND
IN LOCATIONS THAT HAD SEEN SOME PCPN YESTERDAY...MAINLY ARND THE
RFD AREA...SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS FORMED...THOUGH OF THE TAF
SITES...ONLY RFD HAS OBSERVED THE DENSE FOG. BASED ON THE LATEST
HIGH RES MODEL GUIDANCE AND SATELLITE TRENDS...ANTICIPTE THAT
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR OVER THE AREA BY LATE MORNING.
ANOTHER SFC TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS TO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL BECOME SSWLY
THOUGH THE DAY...THOUGH WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT...WIND
SPEEDS SHOULD BE LESS THAN 10KT THROUGH THE DAY. FOR THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS...A MODEST MID LEVEL IMPULSE IS EXPECTED TO CROSS
THE AREA INVOF THE WI/IL BORDER. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THIS
SYSTEM COULD TRIGGER SOME ISOLD/SCT -SHRA...BUT CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING AND COVERAGE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE PCPN IN THE TAFS AT THIS
TIME. CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAT MORE FOG SHOULD DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...PER THE LATEST HIGH RES MODEL RH
TIMESECTIONS...SO HAVE INTRODUCED IFR VIS FOR LATE THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. SOME GUIDANCE IS POINTING TOWARD THE POSSIBILITY OF
VIS DROPPING TO 1/4SM...BUT GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED...DO NOT HAVE HIGH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO DROP VIS LOWER
THAN 1SM FOR NOW.
KREIN
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 12Z...
* MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIG TRENDS THIS MORNING.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIG TRENDS LATE TONIGHT.
* LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN VIS TRENDS LATE TONIGHT.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS.
KREIN
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR. WX NIL.
SUNDAY...VFR. WX NIL.
MONDAY...VFR. WX NIL.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...CHANCE SHRA/SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT...SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR. WX NIL.
KREIN
&&
.MARINE...
215 AM CDT
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM WESTERN QUEBEC
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. THIS RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST OF THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...MEANWHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA
CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST TOWARDS HUDSON BAY SATURDAY. THE GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...THEN SLOWLY TURN
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY. AS THE LOW NEARS HUDSON BAY ON SATURDAY...A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL TRAIL AND SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN. THIS WILL RESULT IN WINDS TURNING WEST/NORTHWEST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. COOLER AIR WILL FLOW ACROSS THE LAKE
ALONG WITH A TIGHTENING GRADIENT...RESULTING IN INCREASING WINDS
NEARING 30KT AT TIMES. THEN ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
QUICKLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST/NORTHERN PLAINS
SUNDAY...STEADILY DIMINISHING THE GRADIENT. ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...THEN APPROACH LAKE MICHIGAN CLOSER TO MID-WEEK. THIS WILL
BRING WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH OCCASIONALLY WINDS GUSTING
TO 30KT.
BEACHLER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
644 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 235 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014
A weak short wave continues to move through the eastern parts of the
CWA this morning, but this should be out of the state by time the
new forecast is issued, or shortly after. The main concern this
morning is the development and advection of stratus clouds and fog
early this morning. Dense fog is present across most of eastern Iowa
this morning and the HRRR model advects this into the area for this
morning. This will keep lots of clouds in the area for this morning,
and could affect max temps for this afternoon, depending on how
quickly the clouds dissipate. Models have it diminishing during
the late morning hours. And with winds becoming southerly by
afternoon, believe some dissipation of the clouds will happen. So
will have less clouds during the afternoon. However, afternoon
high temps may not be as high as first forecast, so have decreased
max temps 1-2 degrees from previous forecast. MAV guidance is
higher than MET by several degrees, so took a compromise between
the two due to cloud cover issues.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 235 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014
Main forecast issue this weekend and into Monday involves
temperatures. Latest model runs for Saturday have been warmer, as
main core of cooler air associated with a frontal boundary track
more across the Great Lakes region. Have bumped up Saturday highs by
a couple degrees. 850 mb warm front progged to lift through the area
late Saturday night and early Sunday, with +16C temperatures
spreading across central Illinois Sunday afternoon, lingering into
Monday. Have also raised highs several degrees both Sunday and
Monday, with a few 80 degree readings possible on Monday across
southwest and southeast portions of the forecast area. Record highs
for Monday are in the mid 80s and currently appear safe.
Split upper flow early next week focuses the deeper part of the next
wave along the northern stream. Model guidance is fairly uniform
with rain chances Monday night through about midday Tuesday, and
pretty much has the forecast area dry by sunset as a high pressure
ridge quickly builds into the mid-Mississippi Valley. However, the
guidance diverges later in the week. The ECMWF persists in a rather
broad trough along the Mississippi River midday Thursday, but now
significantly ramps up rain chances along the associated surface
front. The GFS has a weaker, more progressive wave with little
precipitation. Have leaned more toward the progressive solution for
now. The ECMWF also persists in developing a large closed low over
the Great Lakes late week, which would pump significantly cooler air
into Illinois. Meanwhile, the GFS builds a ridge eastward, with much
warmer air (850 mb temperatures range from -5C to +8C between the
two models). However, this particular aspect is just beyond the
current forecast range, but will need to be addressed with the
afternoon forecast issuance.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
ISSUED AT 644 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014
Complicated forecast for the first 6hrs with some of the TAFs this
morning. An area of stratus and very low vis is slowly moving east
into the area and is already effecting SPI, and should effect PIA
in next couple of hours. Question is how far east will this area
of IFR/LIFR conditions get...will it effect BMI/DEC and CMI.
Believe it will effect DEC and BMI some, but not as much as SPI
and PIA. Conditions should improve this morning, around 16z at PIA
and SPI, but still remain lower MVFR for the rest of the morning.
HRRR model brings some of the lower cigs into BMI and DEC, but not
as long. So going to be a little bit more optimistic at these
sites this morning and just have IFR cigs for this morning at DEC
and lower MVFR at BMI. CMI will have just a TEMPO group for cigs
around 1kft this morning. Conditions should be VFR this afternoon,
but models bring more MVFR cigs back into the area this evening
and continue into the overnight hours. Winds will be light and
variable this morning, but then become more south-southwest for
the rest of the TAF period. Speeds this afternoon will be around
5-10kts.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Auten
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Auten
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
327 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014
.DISCUSSION...
326 AM CDT
SHORT TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING...THE INITIAL
CONCERN WILL BE CLOUD COVER...AND IMPACTS ON VISIBILITY. FOLLOWING
THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK SFC TROUGH/PACIFIC-SOURCED WEAK COLD
FRONT...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE HAS BUILT ACROSS THE REGION. A LOW
STRATUS DECK HAS BEEN IN PLACE FOLLOWING THE FROPA...BUT THE STRATUS
DECK IS ERODING IN PLACES...AND WITH CALM TO LGT/VRBL WINDS IN
PLACE...THE CLEARING LOCATIONS ARE EXPERIENCING RAPID FOG
DEVELOPMENT. THE FOG IS INITIALLY MOSTLY IMPACTING NWRN IL...ARND
THE ROCKFORD AREA...BUT AS THE STRATUS CONTINUES TO
DISSIPATE...ADDITIONAL FOG MAY DEVELOP...BUT ANY DENSE FOG SHOULD BE
LIMITED TO NORTH CENTRAL AND NWRN IL...AWAY FROM THE CHICAGO METRO
AREA. EXCEPT FOR LOCATIONS THAT CLEAR OUT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
GENERALLY BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S...EXCEPT FOR SOME
ISOLATED...SHELTERED LOW LYING AREAS...WHICH COULD RADIATE DOWN INTO
THE UPPER 40S.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF FRIDAY...THE WARMING TREND SHOULD CONTINUE AS
UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE
WESTERN PLAINS. THE MORNING STRATUS AND STRATOCU SHOULD DISSIPATE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...BUT TOTAL SUNSHINE WILL BE LIMITED AS A
THICK CIRRUS LAYER AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
JET STREAM DIVES OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE
MIDWEST. THE SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE IS ALSO INDICATING SOME SHORTWAVE
ENERGY OVERTOPPING THE RIDGE THIS EVENING...WITH SOME GUIDANCE
INDICATING A LITTLE QPF. HAVE A HARD TIME INTRODUCING ANY
MENTIONABLE POPS WITH THIS SYSTEM AS MOISTURE PROFILE FORECASTS ALSO
INDICATE LITTLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. HOWEVER...SOME OF THE HIGH RES
SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IS SHOWING SOME INCREASE RH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
UNDER INCREASINGLY SWLY FLOW...BUT AS FLOW OFF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
WILL BE LIMITED BY HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE CNTRL
APPALACHIANS THROUGH ERN TX...FEEL THAT THIS INCREASED RH COULD BE
MORE INDICATIVE OF SOME FOG POTENTIAL RATHER THAN PCPN POTENTIAL.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...UNDER INCREASING LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND
BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT...EXPECT THAT TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY WILL
LIKELY BE AROUND 5 DEGREES HIGHER THAN THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MIDDLE 60S. FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN MILD WITH DEWPOINTS
INCREASING INTO LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S THROUGH FRIDAY AND INTO FRIDAY
EVENING...SO OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY MORNING SHOULD BE UNSEASONABLY
MILD...AND ONLY DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.
KREIN
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
500MB TROUGH AXIS WILL BE PIVOTING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...WITH A TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING SOUTH AND
EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY MORNING.
MID-LVL HEIGHTS WILL STEADILY RISE AS THE RIDGE PARKED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS PUSHES EAST...BRINGING MILDER AIR TO THE REGION SAT
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPR 60S. THE FAR SOUTHERN CWFA COULD TOUCH 70
DEG SAT. TEMPS SUN ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER AS THE FLOW
BEGINS TO TRANSITION BRIEFLY INTO A QUASI-ZONAL SETUP. HOWEVER THIS
DOES NOT LOOK TO REMAIN VERY LONG...AS RIDGING RETURNS FOR MON AND
TEMPS SHUD QUICKLY WARM INTO THE 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. A WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT ACROSS THE AREA EARLY MON...AS SOUTHERLY
FLOW STRENGTHENS. EXPECT MUCH OF THE DAY MON TO REMAIN DRY...HOWEVER
LATE AFTN/EVE A DEVELOPING LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS MAY HELP TO
GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATE MON.
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE
RIDGING OVERHEAD WILL SHIFT EAST...WITH FLOW TRYING TO FLATTEN.
SUGGESTING THAT A SEMI-ZONAL SETUP MAY DEVELOP BY WED...WHICH WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. TEMPS SHUD RETURN TO
MORE SEASONAL CONDS TUE/WED.
BEACHLER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* MVFR CIGS/VIS DURG THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS. CHANCE
CIGS COULD DROP TO IFR LEVELS.
KREIN
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK SFC TROUGH...ANY RESIDUAL PCPN
REMAINS ISOLD AND SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOLE
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND AS HIGH CLOUD PUSHES AWAY...A BAND
OF STRATUS CAN BE SEEN IN THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY. AS A
NOCTURNAL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LOWERS OVERNIGHT...CLOUD BASES
SHOULD GRADUALLY LOWER TO LOWER END MVFR LEVELS. THERE IS A CHANCE
FOR SOME PATCHY IFR CIGS DURG THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...ESPECIALLY
OVER NWRN IL WHERE SOME RAIN FELL EARLIER...WHICH WOULD MOST
LIKELY AFFECT RFD AND POSSIBLY DPA. AS WINDS BECM LGT/VRBL
OVERNIGHT...VIS SHOULD DROP TO 3-5SM DURG THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...AND IF THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STRATUS DECK CAN ERODE OVER
NWRN IL BEFORE SUNRISE...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR RFD TO DROP INTO
IFR OR EVEN LIFR VIS LEVELS. HOWEVER...THAT WOULD BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE CIG TRENDS.
THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY...ANOTHER SFC TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS
THE CNTRL PLAINS TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY EARLY EVENING.
WINDS WILL BECOME SSWLY THOUGH THE DAY...THOUGH WITH A WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT...WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BE LESS THAN 10KT THROUGH
THE DAY. FOR THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...SOME OF THE MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING THAT THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT PCPN WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE NEXT SFC TROUGH. HOWEVER...SINCE FORCING WITH THIS TROUGH AXIS
LOOKS TO BE RATHER WEAK...CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO ADD PCPN TO THE
TAFS AT THIS TIME.
KREIN
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIG/VIS TRENDS OVERNIGHT.
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN SPECIFIC TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR FRIDAY.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL FORECAST ELEMENTS THROUGH THE DAY ON
FRIDAY.
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE CHANCES FOR PCPN FRIDAY EVENING.
KREIN
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
* FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY DRY. MVFR/FOG POSSIBLE.
* SATURDAY...DRY/VFR. GUSTY WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS.
* SUNDAY...DRY/VFR. SOUTHEAST WINDS.
* MONDAY...DRY/VFR. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS.
* TUESDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA. STRONG/GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS.
* WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS.
KMD
&&
.MARINE...
215 AM CDT
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM WESTERN QUEBEC
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. THIS RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST OF THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...MEANWHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA
CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST TOWARDS HUDSON BAY SATURDAY. THE GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...THEN SLOWLY TURN
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY. AS THE LOW NEARS HUDSON BAY ON SATURDAY...A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL TRAIL AND SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN. THIS WILL RESULT IN WINDS TURNING WEST/NORTHWEST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. COOLER AIR WILL FLOW ACROSS THE LAKE
ALONG WITH A TIGHTENING GRADIENT...RESULTING IN INCREASING WINDS
NEARING 30KT AT TIMES. THEN ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
QUICKLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST/NORTHERN PLAINS
SUNDAY...STEADILY DIMINISHING THE GRADIENT. ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...THEN APPROACH LAKE MICHIGAN CLOSER TO MID-WEEK. THIS WILL
BRING WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH OCCASIONALLY WINDS GUSTING
TO 30KT.
BEACHLER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
236 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 235 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014
A weak short wave continues to move through the eastern parts of the
CWA this morning, but this should be out of the state by time the
new forecast is issued, or shortly after. The main concern this
morning is the development and advection of stratus clouds and fog
early this morning. Dense fog is present across most of eastern Iowa
this morning and the HRRR model advects this into the area for this
morning. This will keep lots of clouds in the area for this morning,
and could affect max temps for this afternoon, depending on how
quickly the clouds dissipate. Models have it diminishing during
the late morning hours. And with winds becoming southerly by
afternoon, believe some dissipation of the clouds will happen. So
will have less clouds during the afternoon. However, afternoon
high temps may not be as high as first forecast, so have decreased
max temps 1-2 degrees from previous forecast. MAV guidance is
higher than MET by several degrees, so took a compromise between
the two due to cloud cover issues.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 235 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014
Main forecast issue this weekend and into Monday involves
temperatures. Latest model runs for Saturday have been warmer, as
main core of cooler air associated with a frontal boundary track
more across the Great Lakes region. Have bumped up Saturday highs by
a couple degrees. 850 mb warm front progged to lift through the area
late Saturday night and early Sunday, with +16C temperatures
spreading across central Illinois Sunday afternoon, lingering into
Monday. Have also raised highs several degrees both Sunday and
Monday, with a few 80 degree readings possible on Monday across
southwest and southeast portions of the forecast area. Record highs
for Monday are in the mid 80s and currently appear safe.
Split upper flow early next week focuses the deeper part of the next
wave along the northern stream. Model guidance is fairly uniform
with rain chances Monday night through about midday Tuesday, and
pretty much has the forecast area dry by sunset as a high pressure
ridge quickly builds into the mid-Mississippi Valley. However, the
guidance diverges later in the week. The ECMWF persists in a rather
broad trough along the Mississippi River midday Thursday, but now
significantly ramps up rain chances along the associated surface
front. The GFS has a weaker, more progressive wave with little
precipitation. Have leaned more toward the progressive solution for
now. The ECMWF also persists in developing a large closed low over
the Great Lakes late week, which would pump significantly cooler air
into Illinois. Meanwhile, the GFS builds a ridge eastward, with much
warmer air (850 mb temperatures range from -5C to +8C between the
two models). However, this particular aspect is just beyond the
current forecast range, but will need to be addressed with the
afternoon forecast issuance.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014
A trailing shortwave feature will produce a few additional
showers over east central IL until 9-12Z, but otherwise mid- and
upper-level clearing overnight will allow areas of fog and low
cloud to continue, especially west of the Illinois River.
Potential IFR or worse vsby/cigs expected, however potential for
dense fog is mainly west of central IL TAF sites. Daytime heating
expected to dissipate fog around 15Z Friday leaving cloud cover
SCT-BKN025 through afternoon. Another weak disturbance will bring
additional potential for MVFR ceilings after 00Z Saturday.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Auten
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Onton
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1249 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014
.DISCUSSION...
903 PM CDT
THE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE TO DISSIPATE POPS AT A QUICKER
RATE...HOLD ONTO MORE CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND ADD
DENSE MENTION TO THE FOG WORDING OVER NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS.
THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT HAD BEEN APPROACHING STEADILY TOWARD THE
AREA THE PAST 24 HOURS HAS DIMINISHED GREATLY SINCE MID-
AFTERNOON...LOSING MUCH OF ITS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. FORCING FOR
RAIN SHOWERS HAS ALSO BEEN DIMINISHING WITH MORE LIMITED MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE WITHIN THE AREA OF ASCENT...SO SHOWERS HAVE QUICKLY
BEEN WANING. THE SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS SURVIVING SHOULD CONTINUE
SLOWLY EAST WITH A GRADUAL FADE INTO OVERNIGHT.
WITH THE HIGHER DEW POINT PLUME OF UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S BROUGHT
UP TO EASTERN IA AND NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL IL BY THE
TROUGH...CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE FOR FOG. ONE THING AGAINST FOG
DEVELOPMENT IS EXISTING CLOUDS WHICH AS SEEN ON THE 00Z DVN RAOB
ARE FAIRLY DEEP /SEVERAL THOUSAND FEET SATURATED LAYER/. THIS AREA
LOOKS TO SLOW ITS MOVEMENT EAST OVER THE CWA THUS NOT ALLOWING
MUCH CLEARING FOR NORTHEAST IL AND NORTHWEST IN...INCLUDING
CHICAGO. MORE PROBLEMATIC WILL BE POSSIBLY SOME CLEARING OF THIS
CLOUD LAYER IN NORTH CENTRAL IL LATE ALLOWING FOR NEARBY VERY LOW
STRATUS AND SOME FOG ALREADY BEING OBSERVED TO JUST EXPAND IN AND
WORSEN THROUGH DAYBREAK. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND HIGH-RES GUIDANCE
FIELDS HAVE TRENDED THIS ROUTE IN THE GENERAL ROCKFORD AND DIXON
AREAS. HAVE BUMPED UP FOG WORDING THERE AND COULD SEE A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY BEING NEEDED DEPENDING ON HOW AGGRESSIVE THE LOWERING IS.
AGAIN FURTHER EASTWARD TOWARD CHICAGO EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO LIMIT
ANY FOG THAT GRADUALLY DEVELOPS FROM GETTING TOO BAD.
HAVE BUMPED UP MINS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER WITH THE CLOUDS
EXPECTED TO HANG ON A GOOD PART OF THE NIGHT IN MOST PLACES.
MTF
//PREV DISCUSSION...
327 PM CDT
AFTERNOON GOES VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH
PROPAGATING THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH A WEAK
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE REFLECTION OVER EAST CENTRAL IOWA. AS EXPECTED
THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD/INTO THIS SYSTEM IS RATHER SPARSE...
WITH A FAIRLY NARROW RIBBON OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST IL AND SOUTHERN WI. HIGH-RES
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THIS EVENING...THOUGH WITH
COVERAGE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT LIMITED AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN WITH LOSS OF DEFINITION OF
THE SURFACE WAVE AND LOW PRESSURE TROUGH. IN ADDITION TO THE
EXTENSIVE MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL LIKELY OBSCURE PARTIAL SOLAR ECLIPSE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...LOWER CLOUDS ALSO EXPECTED AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AXIS ARRIVES. SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA WHERE LIGHT WINDS AND 45-50 DEGREE
SURFACE DEW POINT TEMPS WILL RESULT IN HIGH LOW LEVEL RH...THOUGH
CLEARING SKIES WILL BE MORE LIKELY WEST OF THE CWA WHERE SIGNIFICANT
DENSE FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. AT LEAST CLOUD COVER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL KEEP TEMPS A
LITTLE MILDER OVERNIGHT.
SHORT-WAVE WILL MOVE QUICKLY SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH MODEST HEIGHT RISES AND A SUBTLE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA. ANOTHER TRAILING SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER
THE ROCKIES IS PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS MISSOURI AND
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ILLINOIS FRIDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WHICH MAY
KEEP A LITTLE CLOUD COVER AROUND. OTHERWISE...DOMINANT WEATHER
FEATURE BECOMES A BROAD UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER WEST TEXAS WHICH
COVERS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS INTO THE WEEKEND. A STRONG 150+ KT
UPPER JET FLATTENS THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AS IT RIDES ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER FRIDAY...THOUGH THE MAIN AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE
REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. A
COLD FRONT DOES TRAIL INTO THE REGION HOWEVER...MOVING ACROSS THE
CWA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SOME GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE SOME VERY
SPOTTY/VERY LIGHT QPF WITH FROPA DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS SATURDAY
ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE MUCH LESS IMPRESSIVE WITH PRECIP THAN WITH
CURRENT WAVE...WITH SREF POPS LESS THAN 20 PERCENT. COLD FRONT
COMPLETES THE TRANSIT OF THE CWA SATURDAY MORNING...THOUGH PACIFIC
NATURE OF THE FRONT PRODUCES ONLY MODEST COOLING AS IT SHIFTS WINDS
TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY. LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROGS AND
POTENTIAL FOR A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE SUPPORT TEMPS IN THE 65-AROUND
70 RANGE DESPITE THE SLIGHT COOL ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT...AS
UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO AMPLIFY AND DEVELOP INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY SUNDAY AS
LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES ASHORE IN THE WEST...WITH A LARGE
LEE TROUGH DEVELOPING EAST OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. LOW
PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH A WARM FRONT
LIFTING ACROSS IA-IL SUNDAY NIGHT. SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF
THE WARM FRONT...IN ADDITION TO CLOUD DEVELOPMENT NORTH OF THE WARM
FRONT LOOK TO TEMPER WARM-UP ONLY SLIGHTLY...WITH 60-66 FOR HIGHS
WITH COOLEST AIR ALONG THE IL LAKE SHORE. SOME POTENTIAL FOR
ELEVATED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT
SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN IL.
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE CWA MONDAY...WITH BREEZY/WARM AND MORE
HUMID AIR IN THE WARM SECTOR SUPPORTING TEMPS IN THE 70S AREA-WIDE.
ECMWF/GFS AND GEM ALL INDICATE VERY LITTLE PRECIP IN THE WARM SECTOR
WITH THE MAIN FOCUS ALONG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST. RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THUS INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS
THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST THROUGH THE REGION.
BREEZY AND COOLER CONDITIONS THEN RETURN AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY TO
THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SOME DIFFERENCES REMAIN
WITH THE HANDLING OF THE LOW DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK...THOUGH THIS
MAINLY AFFECTS HOW QUICKLY WE DRY OUT ON TUESDAY. OTHERWISE GUIDANCE
IS ACTUALLY QUITE REASONABLE IN AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
RATZER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* MVFR CIGS/VIS DURG THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS. CHANCE
CIGS COULD DROP TO IFR LEVELS.
KREIN
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK SFC TROUGH...ANY RESIDUAL PCPN
REMAINS ISOLD AND SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOLE
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND AS HIGH CLOUD PUSHES AWAY...A BAND
OF STRATUS CAN BE SEEN IN THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY. AS A
NOCTURNAL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LOWERS OVERNIGHT...CLOUD BASES
SHOULD GRADUALLY LOWER TO LOWER END MVFR LEVELS. THERE IS A CHANCE
FOR SOME PATCHY IFR CIGS DURG THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...ESPECIALLY
OVER NWRN IL WHERE SOME RAIN FELL EARLIER...WHICH WOULD MOST
LIKELY AFFECT RFD AND POSSIBLY DPA. AS WINDS BECM LGT/VRBL
OVERNIGHT...VIS SHOULD DROP TO 3-5SM DURG THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...AND IF THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STRATUS DECK CAN ERODE OVER
NWRN IL BEFORE SUNRISE...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR RFD TO DROP INTO
IFR OR EVEN LIFR VIS LEVELS. HOWEVER...THAT WOULD BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE CIG TRENDS.
THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY...ANOTHER SFC TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS
THE CNTRL PLAINS TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY EARLY EVENING.
WINDS WILL BECOME SSWLY THOUGH THE DAY...THOUGH WITH A WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT...WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BE LESS THAN 10KT THROUGH
THE DAY. FOR THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...SOME OF THE MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING THAT THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT PCPN WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE NEXT SFC TROUGH. HOWEVER...SINCE FORCING WITH THIS TROUGH AXIS
LOOKS TO BE RATHER WEAK...CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO ADD PCPN TO THE
TAFS AT THIS TIME.
KREIN
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIG/VIS TRENDS OVERNIGHT.
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN SPECIFIC TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR FRIDAY.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL FORECAST ELEMENTS THROUGH THE DAY ON
FRIDAY.
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE CHANCES FOR PCPN FRIDAY EVENING.
KREIN
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
* FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY DRY. MVFR/FOG POSSIBLE.
* SATURDAY...DRY/VFR. GUSTY WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS.
* SUNDAY...DRY/VFR. SOUTHEAST WINDS.
* MONDAY...DRY/VFR. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS.
* TUESDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA. STRONG/GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS.
* WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS.
KMD
&&
.MARINE...
244 PM CDT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
EAST ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES RESULTING IN GENERALLY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE LAKE. THIS LOW WILL MOVE OVER JAMES BAY
SATURDAY DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN AND TURNING
WINDS TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST. THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT IS SLOW
TO TRICKLE IN AND THE AIRMASS IS SHALLOW...SO WHILE THERE ARE
GALES JUST OFF THE DECK...IT DOESNT APPEAR THAT THEY WOULD MIX
DOWN TO THE LAKE SURFACE AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL PEAK
OCCASIONALLY TO 30 KT SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN SHOULD
TREND DOWN THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK
OVER THE REGION. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO LIFT
ACROSS THE REGION AROUND MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK AND WILL ONCE AGAIN
BRING MODERATE WINDS TO LAKE MICHIGAN.
BMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1141 PM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 841 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014
The upper level trough axis of weak storm system is crossing
Illinois this evening with isolated light showers and virga
detected by radar just ahead of the axis over central Illinois.
Behind the trough axis, mid-level clouds can be seen on satellite
rapidly dissipating over western Illinois, however low clouds
continue. Any additional clearing will likely be replaced by fog
formation overnight. The system will continue to move east, with
any showers likely to end by early morning eastward to the IL/IN
state line, after little or no rainfall accumulation. Patchy fog
is included in overnight forecast from near the Illinois River
westward. Low temperatures should reach the mid to upper 40s at
most locations. Current forecast is still on track with these
features and only updates have been to convert slight chance PoPs
to isolated showers.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014
19z/2pm surface analysis shows weak cold front/trough axis extending
from Minnesota to northern Kansas. Band of clouds and light showers
accompanies this feature from Missouri northeastward into Wisconsin,
although showers have been struggling to spread eastward into the
very dry airmass across Illinois. Forecast soundings suggest
continued top-down moistening this afternoon and evening as 500mb
trough approaches from the west. Despite decent lift ahead of the
trough, dry airmass will be the main mitigating factor for
widespread precip development. Will therefore continue to feature
just slight chance PoPs this evening across all locations north of
the I-70 corridor and across the N/NE KILX CWA overnight. Rainfall
totals will be quite light, amounting to little more than a couple
hundredths of an inch at best. Due to the clouds, overnight lows
will be quite a but warmer than in recent nights, with readings
remaining in the middle to upper 40s. Skies may temporarily clear
along/west of the Illinois River late tonight: however, with light
winds and plenty of surface-based moisture in place, think fog
and/or low clouds will develop toward dawn. Have therefore included
patchy fog mention across the W/NW overnight. HRRR suggests
widespread fog and lowest visbys will develop further west
along/west of the Mississippi River.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014
Initial forecast challenge will be how quickly the low level
moisture/clouds are able to clear out during the day Friday as
forecast soundings not looking very optimistic, at least thru
the morning hours. However, we do see some drying taking place
in the lower levels of the atmosphere in the wake of the shortwave
by late morning/early afternoon. Will keep the clouds and mention
of early morning fog in for a few hours after sunrise and then
forecast a gradual decrease in clouds from northwest to southeast
during the day. Models continue to bring a weak cold front into
our area late Friday night into Saturday with very little moisture
to work, with so will continue with the dry forecast later Friday
night thru Saturday morning. After that, some very nice weather in
store for the area thru Monday evening as upper level ridging
builds across the center of the country in response to a rather
deep trof pushing across the western U.S.
Models in decent agreement with respect to the magnitude of the
trof forecast to push across our area on Tuesday and the timing
of the cold frontal passage and rain chances ahead of it starting
late Monday night with likely POPs most areas on Tuesday. Before
the rain moves in though, some pleasantly warm weather is in store
for the region this weekend with summer-like temperatures on Monday
thanks to a gusty south to southwest wind. Despite the weak cold
frontal passage on Saturday, temperatures on Sunday will only cool
about 5 degrees most areas, but rise well into the 70s on Monday
afternoon with low 80s possible in the southeast. Rain chances will
increase ahead of the low pressure system late Monday night in the
west and over all of our area on Tuesday as the front sweeps across
the area. Strong dynamics aloft with 0-6km shear values of 40-50
kts and models indicating surface dew points climbing to around 60
just ahead of the front. Will have to monitor for the possibility
for strong to severe storms Tuesday afternoon if the models continue
with the slowing trend with the frontal passage.
Rain chances start to decrease from west to east Tuesday evening in the
wake of the storm system with dry weather expected for the remainder
of the period. Temperatures will cool back closer to where they should
be for the end of October.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014
A trailing shortwave feature will produce a few additional
showers over east central IL until 9-12Z, but otherwise mid- and
upper-level clearing overnight will allow areas of fog and low
cloud to continue, especially west of the Illinois River.
Potential IFR or worse vsby/cigs expected, however potential for
dense fog is mainly west of central IL TAF sites. Daytime heating
expected to dissipate fog around 15Z Friday leaving cloud cover
sct-bkn025 through afternoon. Another weak disturbance will bring
additional potential for MVFR ceilings after 00Z Saturday.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Onton
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...Onton
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
559 PM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW LARGE SCALE RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...EXTENDING NORTH INTO THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS IN PLACE OVER SE
COLORADO AND NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. A STALLED FRONT IS BISECTING OUR CWA...EXTENDING
FROM NE COLORADO TO CENTRAL KANSAS (ROUGHLY ALONG A KAKO-KGLD-
KHYS LINE).
WITH STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE AND MAIN STORM TRACK WELL NORTH OF THE
CWA...PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AGAIN
SUNDAY AND POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG TONIGHT.
REGARDING DENSE FOG...NAM/RUC/HRRR RH AND VIS FIELDS CONTINUE TO
SHOW POSSIBILITY OF DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT NORTH OF THE QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT. SREF PROBABILITIES ARE ALSO SHOWING THIS.
LOCATION OF FRONT AND MOISTURE POOLING ALONG/NORTH OF THIS FEATURE
WILL LIKELY BE CRITICAL TO DENSE FOG LOCATION...IN ADDITION NEAR
INVERSION LAYER WINDS 10-20KT MAY ALLOW FOR ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP
VIS HIGHER UNTIL LOW LEVELS COMPLETELY DECOUPLE AROUND SUNRISE.
THERE IS ALSO INDICATION FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS AND CURRENT
GFS THAT FRONT WILL BE FURTHER NORTH AND EAST WHICH WOULD ALLOW
LOWER TD VALUES TO ADVECT EASTWARD WITH SHIFT IN LOW LEVEL FLOW.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN FOG DEVELOPMENT...BUT LOCATION IS ENOUGH OF
A QUESTION TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUANCE OF ADVISORY DURING DAYTIME
UPDATE PACKAGE.
TEMP FORECAST SUNDAY IS ALSO COMPLICATED BY POSITION OF QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER TEMPS ALOFT NORTH OF THIS
FRONT. ANY LINGERING STRATUS/FOG WOULD ALSO THROW A WRENCH INTO
THINGS...ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTHEAST. OVERALL I THINK TEMPS WILL
BE VERY SIMILAR TODAY...WITH SLIGHTLY "COOLER" TEMPS NORTH OF THE
FRONT JUST LIKE TODAY. EITHER WAY TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
LOWER 80S FOR MOST PARTS OF THE CWA SUNDAY...AND IF FRONT LIFTS
NORTHEAST WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW COULD SUPPORT RECORD HIGHS IN
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 PM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014
UPPER FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AHEAD OF A
TROUGH THAT MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST MONDAY NIGHT WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW FOLLOWING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE TROUGH
WILL BE OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT.
THE UPPER TROUGH THAT COMES THROUGH HAS GOOD DYNAMICS BUT MOISTURE
IS LACKING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE DRY LOW LEVELS WITH
MARGINAL SATURATION AT MID LEVELS. ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION INTO MONDAY EVENING DUE TO THE TROUGH STILL
OVER THE AREA, THE GFS AND NAM TAKE THE BEST MOISTURE EAST OF THE FA
BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MAY BE OPTIMISTIC BUT WILL
KEEP THEM GOING. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO THE WINDY CATEGORY MONDAY
WITH GUSTS FROM 25 TO 35KTS. WIND SPEEDS COULD INCREASE TO LOW END
ADVISORY LEVELS. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT MONDAY NIGHT AND WITH
CLOUDS CLEARING AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 20S, WIDESPREAD FROST
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN COLORADO. TEMPERATURES MAY GET COLD
ENOUGH FOR A HARD FREEZE IN EASTERN COLORADO. FOR NOW WILL KEEP
FROST IN THE GRIDS AND MONITOR THE HARD FREEZE POTENTIAL.
SUBSIDENCE FOLLOWS THE EXITING TROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FA SO POPS WILL BE NIL.
MAX TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN
EASTERN COLORADO TO THE LOWER/MID 60S IN THE EASTERN FA. MIN
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 40S SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN COOL TO
THE LOWER TO MID 30S MONDAY NIGHT.
IN THE EXTENDED...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY
A RIDGE THAT WILL BUILD INTO THE ROCKIES THURSDAY AND INTO THE
PLAINS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP POPS NIL THROUGH
THIS PERIOD.
MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THIS PART OF THE
FORECAST WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S WEDNESDAY COOLING
TO THE LOWER 60S THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD COOL TO THE MID 30S. SOME FROST WILL BE
POSSIBLE AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
SLIGHTLY TO THE MID AND UPPER 30S WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 553 PM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT GLD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH
ONLY A FEW HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED AFTER 14Z.
MCK WILL START OUT VFR AND TRANSITION TO IFR AFTER 09Z WITH LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG DEVELOPING AS WINDS GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND THE
BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO SATURATE WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING
THE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S. EXPECT A DROP TO
LIFR AND OCCASIONALLY VLIFR BETWEEN ABOUT 11Z-14Z WITH A QUICK
TRANSITION BACK TO VFR BY 15Z AS WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO THE
NORTHWEST AND WIND SPEEDS INCREASE TO AROUND 10KTS.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...LOCKHART
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
218 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 151 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014
WITH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS THE DRY AND MILD PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS...STALLING OUT JUST NORTH/NORTHEAST OF THE CWA TOMORROW.
TODAY...MOSTLY SUNNY AND RECORD-BREAKING WARMTH. AS OF THE EARLY
AFTERNOON AT LEAST ONE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE HAS BEEN TIED AND A
FEW OTHERS ARE A FEW DEGREES SHY OF RECORD VALUES. RAP ANALYSIS
DEPICTS 850MB TEMPS ON THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE...AND MORNING
TEMPS ROSE ACCORDINGLY. SOME EARLY CLOUD COVER ALONG/EAST OF HIGHWAY
83 LIMITED HEATING THIS MORNING...BUT UNDER NEAR-FULL SUNSHINE EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON TEMPS ARE NEAR FORECAST VALUES. DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN
MARKEDLY DRIER THAN MOST ALL GUIDANCE EXCEPT FOR THE HRRR WHICH HAS
BEEN DEPICTING WHAT SEEMED THIS MORNING TO BE A VERY AGGRESSIVE DROP
IN DEW POINTS...IN THE 20S F ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. WINDS ARE
LIGHT /LESS THAN 10MPH/ SO THANKFULLY FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
NOT A CONCERN TODAY.
TONIGHT...CLOUDS CLEAR OUT BUT WARM AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE. LOW
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID/UPPER 40S...ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION. WITH DRY AIR MOVING
IN FOG IS OF NO CONCERN.
TOMORROW...SATURDAY...ANOTHER DRY AND MILD DAY. TEMPS WILL NOT BE AS
HOT AS FRIDAY AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT...850MB TEMPS IN THE LOW 20S C LEADING TO HIGHS WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AT 10-15
KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS. RECORD HIGHS MAY BE BROKEN...SEE CLIMATE
SECTION FOR DETAILS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014
NAM/SREF ARE SHOWING MOISTURE RETURN EAST OF SURFACE TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN PART OF THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WHICH
COULD LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT. NAM/SREF ARE SHOWING REDUCED VIS IN
THESE AREAS...SO I INTRODUCED PATCHY FOG MENTION OVER THE
NORTHEAST PART OF CWA.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN DECENT AGREEMENT AT LEAST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK ON THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WITH RIDGE KEEPING
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE SUNDAY...AND
A QUICK MOVING POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT.
JUST LIKE IN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...LIFT IS DECENT...HOWEVER
MOISTURE IS NOT IMPRESSIVE AND I CONSIDERED ONLY HAVING MENTION OF
SPRINKLES AND NO MEASURABLE PRECIP. THERE IS STILL A WEAK PRECIP
SIGNAL ON MOST GUIDANCE...AND I COULDNT RULE OUT A FEW LOCATIONS
GETTING A FEW HUNDREDTHS SO I LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN PLACE
MONDAY-MONDAY EVENING. AS THE SURFACE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE CWA
AND SURFACE GRADIENT INCREASES WE COULD SEE WINDY CONDITIONS
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. I TRENDED WINDS UP A LITTLE
MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT AM STILL A LITTLE LOWER THAN WHAT NAM ML
WINDS WOULD INDICATE.
SKIES SHOULD RAPIDLY CLEAR MONDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASING
WINDS...AND LOW TD VALUES IN THE 20S. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND FROST CHANCES APPEAR TO BE INCREASING. I
KEPT FORECAST IN THE 30-36F RANGE...HOWEVER I COULD SEE A FEW COLD
SPOTS DROPPING TO 28F.
PATTERN SHIFTS TO A BRIEF WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW BEFORE RIDGE
AMPLIFIES OVER THE WESTERN US...RESULTING IN NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW
OVER THE PLAINS. GUIDANCE GENERALLY SHOWING A SIMILAR
PATTERN...THOUGH THERE ARE SMALLER VARIANCES LIKELY A RESULT OF
WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES. A VERY DRY AIR MASS IS ADVERTISED...SO
EVEN IF WE DO SE DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW I DO NOT
ANTICIPATE PRECIP AND ONLY PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. TEMPS WILL TEND TO
BE JUST BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS AROUND 60F MONDAY-FRIDAY...WITH
WESTERLY FLOW SUPPORTING SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE UPPER 60S/NEAR 70
ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1128 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014
BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN THIS WEEKEND WILL MEAN VFR CONDITIONS AT
MCK AND GLD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT
LESS THAN 10 KTS. A SCATTERED HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD DECK /APPROX 25KFT
AGL OR HIGHER/ WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SKIES
BECOMING CLEAR TONIGHT.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...JJM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
153 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 151 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014
WITH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS THE DRY AND MILD PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS...STALLING OUT JUST NORTH/NORTHEAST OF THE CWA TOMORROW.
TODAY...MOSTLY SUNNY AND RECORD-BREAKING WARMTH. AS OF THE EARLY
AFTERNOON AT LEAST ONE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE HAS BEEN TIED AND A
FEW OTHERS ARE A FEW DEGREES SHY OF RECORD VALUES. RAP ANALYSIS
DEPICTS 850MB TEMPS ON THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE...AND MORNING
TEMPS ROSE ACCORDINGLY. SOME EARLY CLOUD COVER ALONG/EAST OF HIGHWAY
83 LIMITED HEATING THIS MORNING...BUT UNDER NEAR-FULL SUNSHINE EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON TEMPS ARE NEAR FORECAST VALUES. DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN
MARKEDLY DRIER THAN MOST ALL GUIDANCE EXCEPT FOR THE HRRR WHICH HAS
BEEN DEPICTING WHAT SEEMED THIS MORNING TO BE A VERY AGGRESSIVE DROP
IN DEW POINTS...IN THE 20S F ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. WINDS ARE
LIGHT /LESS THAN 10MPH/ SO THANKFULLY FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
NOT A CONCERN TODAY.
TONIGHT...CLOUDS CLEAR OUT BUT WARM AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE. LOW
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID/UPPER 40S...ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION. WITH DRY AIR MOVING
IN FOG IS OF NO CONCERN.
TOMORROW...SATURDAY...ANOTHER DRY AND MILD DAY. TEMPS WILL NOT BE AS
HOT AS FRIDAY AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT...850MB TEMPS IN THE LOW 20S C LEADING TO HIGHS WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AT 10-15
KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS. RECORD HIGHS MAY BE BROKEN...SEE CLIMATE
SECTION FOR DETAILS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 116 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014
INITIAL AND ONLY CONCERN IS THE LOW CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY
AND MONDAY EVENING. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE
SPEED AND AMPLITUDE OF THE SYSTEM TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.
ECMWF HAS DEFINITELY BACKED OFF ITS MUCH DEEPER/STRONGER SYSTEM.
THERE WILL BE SOME DECENT MID AND UPPER LEVEL LIFT AS IT MOVES
THROUGH. HOWEVER...THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SYSTEM. SO THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS GIVEN TO ME BY THE
CRH_INIT ARE REASONABLE AND MADE NO CHANGES TO THEM.
MODELS DIFFERENCES INCREASE FROM TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY
WITH WHERE THEY PUT THE DEVELOPING RIDGE. NO MATTER WHICH MODEL
YOU USE...DRY WESTERLY FLOW OR RIDGING WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. MODELS STILL SHOWING COLD ENOUGH
TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT THAT FROST WILL LIKELY
FORM. SO KEPT THE PATCHY FROST THAT INHERITED. ALSO MADE NO
CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1128 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014
BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN THIS WEEKEND WILL MEAN VFR CONDITIONS AT
MCK AND GLD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT
LESS THAN 10 KTS. A SCATTERED HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD DECK /APPROX 25KFT
AGL OR HIGHER/ WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SKIES
BECOMING CLEAR TONIGHT.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE IN JEOPARDY OF BEING TIED OR BROKEN AT
THE FOLLOWING LOCATION SATURDAY OCTOBER 25:
BURLINGTON CO....84 IN 1963
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...JJM
CLIMATE...99/JJM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
1024 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM CENTRAL CANADA OVERNIGHT
AND CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES
WILL BUILD TOWARD THE REGION ON MONDAY THEN MOVE EAST ON TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
1000 PM UPDATE: THE TMG OF SHWRS WAS MOVED UP BY ABOUT AN HR BASED
ON LATEST HRRR MODEL OUTPUT AND LATEST RADAR REF TRENDS. OTHERWISE...
FCST LOWS HAS TO BE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD OVR E CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA
BASED ON 9 PM OBSVD TEMPS ALREADY LOWER THAN THE PREV FCST LOWS BY
A COUPLE OF DEG. WITH THICKER CLD CVR XPCTD TO ARRIVE WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF SHWRS...WE BELIEVE TEMPS SHOULD LVL OFF LATE TNGT AND
MAYBE EVEN RISE A FEW DEG BY DAYBREAK...SO THE FCST LOWS ARE NOT
MUCH LOWER THAN RECENTLY OBSVD...AND POSTED AT 2 AM.
ORGNL DISC: A COLD CORE LOW CONTINUES ITS TRACK EAST INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THE LOW WILL BE
SOUTH OF NEWFOUNDLAND AS IT CONTINUES TO FILL AND SLOWLY MOVE TO
THE EAST. A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER MAINE...AS A
NEW LOW WITH ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVES SOUTH FROM HUDSON BAY TO
JAMES BAY. THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF/GEM ALL ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
MINOR DIFFERENCE IN POSITION AND CENTRAL PRESSURE. AROUND MIDNIGHT
THE FRONT WILL PUSH INTO WRN MAINE. THE LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH TO SRN
QUEBEC. BY SUNDAY MORNING THE LOW WILL BE OVER WRN MAINE...AND BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE LOW WILL BECOME CUT OFF BY THE
JET...AND BEGIN TO BECOME COLD CORE.
LOADED A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF/GEM/NAM THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR
MAX/MIN TEMPS...HRLY T/DP/WND/SKY/POP. LOADED HPCQPF...ADDED 15
PERCENT TO WNDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT OVER WATER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER THE DOMINANCE
OF A VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER LOW IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS
WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND A FEW SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S NORTH AND LOWER 40S FOR BANGOR
AND DOWN EAST.. THE STRENGTH OF A LOBE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER
LOW WILL BEAR WATCHING AS THERE IS SLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE CROWN OF MAINE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THIS
TIME...THIS DISTURBANCE DOES NOT APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH AND BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPERATURES LOOK TOO WARM FOR SNOW SHOWERS. THE NORTHWEST
FLOW AND WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT WITH A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS...MOSTLY TOWARDS THE ALLAGASH.
HIGHS WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 40S NORTH WHILE BANGOR AND DOWN
EAST SHOULD SEE READINGS IN THE LOW 50S. CLEARING WILL MOVE VERY
SLOWLY INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...FINALLY REACHING THE NORTHEAST
CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY MORNING. THE CLEARING COULD
PRODUCE SOME CHILLY TUESDAY MORNING READINGS IN THE UPPER 20S IN
THE ALLAGASH AND PARTS OF PISCATAQUIS COUNTY. A NARROW RIDGE
BUILDS TUESDAY BUT RESIDUAL STRATOCUMULUS AND WARM FRONTAL
CLOUDINESS IS LIKELY TO PREVENT MUCH SUNSHINE. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 40S NORTH AND LOW TO MID 50S SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ON TUESDAY NIGHT...EXPECT WARM FRONTAL CLOUDINESS TO CONTINUE WITH
RAIN BREAKING OUT LATER IN THE NIGHT. PRECIPITATION IS MOST
LIKELY TOWARDS AROOSTOOK COUNTY. AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH PERIODS OF RAIN AND RELATIVELY
MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60F. THE FRONT WILL
EXIT THE AREA BY EVENING. A SECONDARY...BUT DRY COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THURSDAY. COLD AIR WILL ADVECT IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. UNCERTAINTY
BUILDS TOWARDS NEXT FRIDAY NIGHT SATURDAY REGARDING THE EVOLUTION
AND TRACK OF LOW PRESSURE. AN UPPER LEVEL CUT-OFF SEEMS DESTINED
TO FORM IN THE EASTERN US...BUT WHETHER IS FORMS IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN US OR EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION REMAINS IN QUESTION. THE
AIR ALOFT COULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW...OR A MIX.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS FOR FVE...CAR...PQI...AND HUL. IN WRAP AROUND PCPN
EARLY...A BRIEF PERIOD THIS EVENING CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MVFR
BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS FOR BGR AND BHB THIS EVENING BECOMING MVFR AROUND
MIDNIGHT...A FEW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE AROUND THE AREA...HOWEVER
PCPN SHOULD MAINLY BE ACROSS N AND CNTRL MAINE THROUGH THE MORNING
HRS.
SHORT TERM: ALL SITES WILL BE MOSTLY MVFR SUNDAY NIGHT. BGR AND
BHB WILL BECOME VFR MONDAY MORNING...BUT SITES NORTH OF HUL REMAIN
MVFR INTO TUESDAY MORNING. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
AT ALL SITES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. VFR RETURNS FOR
ALL SITES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA CRITERIA TONIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS WILL
BEGIN TO BUILD AFTER MIDNIGHT AN SCA IS IN EFFECT FROM 8AM
TOMORROW THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
SHORT TERM: AN SCA WILL REMAIN IN PLACE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
A NEW SCA IS POSSIBLE FOR WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM SUNDAY TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...MCW
AVIATION...VJN/MCW
MARINE...VJN/MCW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
133 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
TO NOVA SCOTIA THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN...HEAVY AT
TIMES ACROSS ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE
REGION. THIS LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
115 AM UPDATE: 05Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED LOW PRES SE OF CAPE COD
STARTING TO MOVE SLOWLY NE. SATELLITE WV IMAGERY CONFIRMS THIS TO
BE THE CASE AS THE LOW IS SHOWING SIGNS OF OPENING. RADAR LOOP
SHOWED A LARGE AREA OF RAIN MOVING W W/SOME POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN
EMBEDDED. 24 HR TOTALS RANGE FROM 2.0 TO 2.5 INCHES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND DOWNEAST INCLUDING THE COAST. LESS AMOUNTS
AS ONE TRAVELS NORTHWARD W/<1" OF RAINFALL. THE HRRR 3KM
MESOSCALE MODEL WAS DOING WELL W/THE PLACEMENT OF THE RAINFALL PER
THE RADAR AS WAS THE 00Z RUN OF THE CANADIAN GEM. THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL HAS NOW SHIFTED AWAY FROM THE COAST. ADJUSTED THE POPS TO
REFLECT 2 AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER AND
DOWN THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS INTO EASTERN MAINE. HRLY
TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED TO MATCH THE CURRENT CONDITIONS.
A LOW SLOWLY TRACKING ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE WILL INFLUENCE THE
WEATHER FOR THE AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
SATELLITE...AND MODEL DATA SUPPORT A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW THAT
IS BECOMING COLD CORE. AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THE
GFS/NAM/GEM/ECMWF ALL PLACE THE LOW JUST SE OF CAPE COD...WITH THE
OCCLUDED FRONT WRAPPED AROUND THE CENTER EXTENDING NORTH INTO
CENTRAL MAINE. ALL MEMBERS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE HEAVIEST QPF
FALLING ACROSS THE DOWNEAST COAST...AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST. BY
TOMORROW MORNING THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT.
TAKING THE LOW ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE...EAST OF CAPE COD...SOUTH
OF EASTPORT. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE LOW TRACK EAST TO A
POSITION SOUTHEAST OF YARMOUTH ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA. THE REMNANTS OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT REMAIN OVER NRN
MAINE...CLEARING BEGINS ACROSS SW AND WRN MAINE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
LOOK FOR RAIN TO FINALLY TAPER OFF FRIDAY EVENING AS THE SYSTEM
KICKS OUT TO THE EAST. A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER INTO SATURDAY
MORNING MAINLY OVER FAR NORTHEAST MAINE. DRY DAY IN STORE FOR
SATURDAY. HOWEVER, ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BE HOT ON ITS HEELS. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE FAIRLY MINOR, WITH SHOWERS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND TAPERING OFF SUNDAY EVENING. EXPECT LESS
THAN A HALF INCH OF RAIN WITH THE SYSTEM, WITH THE HIGHER TOTALS
LIKELY BEING OVER NORTHERN MAINE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SEASONABLY COOL AND DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY, THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN MONDAY NIGHT. THEN WARMER
TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. NEXT SYSTEM POISED TO IMPACT US
LATE WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A FAST HITTING COLD FRONT
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. A QUICK PERIOD OF SHOWERS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY COOLER, DRIER WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MODELS ARE
IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR PREVAILING CONDITIONS ACROSS MAINE THROUGH TONIGHT. SLOW
IMPROVEMENTS LATE IN THE PERIOD FOR BGR AND BHB.
SHORT TERM: LINGERING MVFR FRIDAY NIGHT PRIMARILY FAR EASTERN
MAINE. VFR EVERYWHERE BY MIDDAY SATURDAY, THEN MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING MAINLY FOR NORTHERN MAINE
AS A WEAK SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: GALE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 1 AM. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
SUBSIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT. AN SCA WILL BE REQUIRED AFTER 1 AM.
SHORT TERM: NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS FRIDAY EVENING WILL
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. WEST WINDS THEN INCREASE BACK UP TO NEAR
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS OF 25 KNOTS SUNDAY. SEAS WILL BE 3 TO 5 FEET FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
830 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A SLIGHT COOL DOWN FOR SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM WELL
ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
BRING RAIN AND A RETURN TO COLDER TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S ARE NOW COMING INTO A GOOD CHUNK OF THE
NORTHWESTERN HALF OF OHIO...AND POISED TO PUSH INTO OUR AREA
OVERNIGHT. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE REPLACED BY FAIRLY BRISK
OVERNIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS...WHICH WILL USHER IN SOMEWHAT
COLDER...BUT MUCH DRIER AIR THROUGH MORNING. INCREASED TURBULENT
MIXING SHOULD KEEP DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS UP OVERNIGHT AND A LACK OF
LAYER RH SHOULD ALLOW FOR CLEARING TO BE ALL ENCOMPASSING IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. AS SUCH...CLEAR SKIES WITH NO FOG WILL BE THE RULE
BY SUN RISE.
CLEAR SKIES WITH STRONG DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY. A HANDFUL OF FAIR WEATHER/FLAT CUMULUS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE MID-LEVEL COLD POOL DRIFTS FROM UPSTATE NEW YORK
INTO NEW ENGLAND. FRIES
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL BRING FLOW WITH A SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT...ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURE TO RISE ABOVE NORMAL. NEARLY
ALL LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE 70S ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN
ADVANCING COLD FRONT. HAVE SPED UP ARRIVAL TIME OF PRECIP...AND HAVE
NOW BROUGHT IN A CHANCE OF RAIN EVERYWHERE BY LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. 12Z GFS AND NAM BOTH SHOW SMALL AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY IN
ZANESVILLE SOUNDING...AND HAVE ALSO ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER
FOR PORTIONS OF OHIO.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL RACE ACROSS REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND HAVE GONE
WITH LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS WITH FRO PA AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE STRETCHED ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. BY FRIDAY DEEPENING
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING
SHOWERS BACK TO THE REGION FOLLOWED BY MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS FOR
THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL MID EVENING BEFORE
DECOUPLING AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN HOW SOON WINDS WILL LESSEN AT THE SURFACE BUT FOR
NOW REFLECT THIS OCCURRING SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AT MOST
LOCATIONS. IF WINDS DECOUPLE EARLIER...LOW LEVEL IND SHEAR WILL
BE A CONCERN AS LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW 40KTS AT 1KFT AGL BY MID
EVENING. REMOVED MVFR CIGS FROM 18Z TAFS AS MUCH DRIER AIR WILL BE
MOVING IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. MODELS ARE ALL IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW A LARGE ENOUGH MARGIN BETWEEN TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT
PROFILES DESPITE THE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT.
OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
742 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW WNW FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE UPR GREAT LKS BTWN UPR RDG EXTENDING FM TEXAS THRU THE
ROCKIES AND DEEPENING UPR TROF NEAR HUDSON BAY ENHANCED BY STRONG
SHRTWV DIGGING THRU NW ONTARIO THAT IS ACCOMPANIED BY 12HR H5 HGT
FALLS UP TO 130M. TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BTWN ASSOCIATED LO PRES NEAR
JAMES BAY AND HI PRES IN THE NRN PLAINS IS ALLOWING FOR GUSTY WNW
WINDS OVER UPR MI EARLY THIS AFTN. THE 12Z INL RAOB SHOWED WINDS
NEAR 40 KTS AT 3-4K FT AGL...AND SFC WIND GUSTS HAVE REACHED AOA 40
MPH OVER MUCH OF THE CWA WITH DAYTIME HEATING ALLOWING THE MIXING OF
THOSE HIER WINDS TO THE SFC. THE AIRMASS STREAMING INTO UPR MI IS A
DRY ONE... SO THERE HAVE ONLY BEEN SOME SCT DIURNAL CU/SC. BUT MORE
SC IS NOTED OVER ONTARIO CLOSER TO CORE OF COLDER AIR AT H85. LOOKING
WELL UPSTREAM...THERE IS A POTENT SHRTWV APRCHG THE PAC NW.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED ON WINDS INTO THIS
EVNG AND THEN ON TEMPS FOR SUN.
LATE TDAY/TNGT...WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING AND SLOW BUT
STEADY APRCH OF SFC HI PRES RDG FM THE W/DIMINISHING H925 WINDS...
THE GUSTY WNW WINDS THAT LINGER THRU THE AFTN WL DIMINISH. HIER
WAVES WHIPPED UP BY THE STRONG WINDS THIS AFTN AND IMPACTING AREAS
FM ONTONAGON THRU COPPER HARBOR AND E OF MARQUETTE MAY CAUSE SOME
MINOR BEACH EROSION ALONG THE LK SUP SHORE. SKIES SHOULD BE MOCLR...
BUT AS THE FLOW VEERS A BIT MORE TO THE NW OVER THE E AND ADVECTS
SOMEWHAT COLDER H85 AIR INTO THAT AREA...SOME OF THE BKN SC IN
ONTARIO MAY MOVE INTO THE ERN CWA. THIS CAD WL ALSO MAINTAIN GUSTY
WINDS OVER THE E FOR A BIT LONGER. A STEADY NW WIND THRU THE NGT WL
LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP DROP EVEN WHERE SKIES ARE CLR. EXPECT THE
LOWEST MIN TEMPS OVER THE INTERIOR W...WHERE WINDS WL BECOME LIGHTER
TOWARD DAYBREAK WITH THE CLOSER APRCH OF SFC HI PRES RDG.
SUN...HI PRES RDG CROSSING UPR MI WL BRING A MAINLY SUNNY DAY...
EXCEPT FOR SOME SCT DAYTIME CU OVER THE E CLOSER TO SLOWLY DEPARTING
H85 THERMAL TROF. STEADY NW WINDS OVER THE E IN THE MRNG WL DIMINISH
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE RDG. WITH H85 TEMPS REBOUNDING TO 10C OVER
THE W BY 00Z MON...MAX TEMPS SHOULD RISE INTO THE 50S AND PERHAPS
TOUCH 60 OVER THE W WHERE DVLPG SE FLOW WL DOWNSLOPE. MORE
PERSISTENT NW FLOW OFF THE CHILLY WATERS OF LK SUP WL KEEP THE E
COOLEST...AND TEMPS THERE NEAR LK SUP MAY BE HARD PRESSED TO REACH
50.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014
A 500MB RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE CWA AT 00Z MON...BUT WILL MOVE E BY
12Z MON AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NRN PLAINS ACCOMPANIED BY
A BROAD SFC LOW ACROSS MN. EXPECT SHOWERS /AND POSSIBLY SOME
THUNDERSTORMS/ ASSOCIATED WITH WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THE
LOW TO MOVE ACROSS THE WRN CWA SUN NIGHT IN MON MORNING...THEN
ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA MON MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL THEN SHIFT ACROSS THE CWA TUE INTO TUE NIGHT...WITH
INTENSIFICATION OF THE BROAD SFC LOW OCCURRING. EXACTLY WHEN/WHERE
THE BEST CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS IS UNCERTAIN DUE TO MODEL DISAGREEMENT
ON MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH. DESPITE
LACKING EXACT DETAILS...THE PRECIP FORECAST REMAINS SOMEWHAT MORE
CERTAIN. RAIN SHOWERS /AGAIN WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS/ SHOULD
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE MON EVENING THROUGH MON NIGHT...BUT THE
DRY SLOT WILL LEAD TO A DRIER FORECAST FOR TUE MORNING. WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE AND COOLER NWLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO LAKE ENHANCED RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS LATE TUE INTO THU AS 850MB TEMPS FALL AS LOW AS
-5C...ALTHOUGH A DIMINISHING TREND IN SHOWER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS TIME. MON AND TUE WILL SEE HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S
TO MID 50S...BUT WED WILL ONLY SEE HIGHS REACH THE LOW TO MID 40S.
WED NIGHT AND THU MORNING LOOK DRY FOR THE MOST PART AS A SFC RIDGE
SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA...BUT CLOUDS WILL COVER THE AREA DUE TO AMPLE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS WELL AS FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR.
POOR RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY FROM THE MODELS DOES NOT LEND MUCH
CONFIDENCE FOR THU THROUGH NEXT SAT AS THEY POINT TO A DEEPER TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...BRINGING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AOB
-10C. AS MENTIONED MODELS VARY FROM RUN TO RUN AND DISAGREE WITH
EACH OTHER ON ALL BUT THE VERY GENERAL PATTERN...AND EVEN AT THAT
THE TIMING OF WHEN AND FOR HOW LONG THE COLD AIR MOVES OVERHEAD IS
NOT AGREED ON. WILL HAVE CHANCES OF LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW THU
NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT. FOR SAT...MODELS WANT TO BRING A SFC HIGH INTO
THE AREA BUT WITH CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY. WILL KEEP POPS GOING INTO
SAT FOR LAKE EFFECT...BUT JUST SLIGHT CHANCE FOR NOW. HIGH TEMPS ON
FRI MAY NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 30S IN MANY LOCATIONS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 740 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014
UNDER A DRY AIR MASS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW
THRU THIS FCST PERIOD. GUSTY WNW WINDS INTO THE 20-30KT RANGE WILL
DIMINISH DURING THE NIGHT AS AIR MASS BECOMES MORE STABLE AND AS
PRES GRADIENT BEGINS TO RELAX WITH APPROACH OF SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE
FROM THE W. RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE MID AND LATE
AFTN HRS ON SUNDAY...PROVIDING A PERIOD OF LIGHT WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014
AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY WEST TO EAST OVER
NORTHERN ONTARIO...SW TO W GALES OVER 35 KTS ARE EXPECTED INTO
THIS EVENING...MAINLY CENTRAL AND EAST LAKE SUPERIOR. NW WINDS OF 20
TO 30 KTS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING IN WAKE OF THE LOW AND
BEFORE SFC RIDGE CROSSES THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. AFTER A BRIEF
PERIOD WITH WINDS LESS THAN 20 KTS WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE...SE WINDS
INCREASE TO 30 KTS OVER MAINLY EAST LAKE SUPERIOR ON MONDAY AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. ONCE THIS LOW MOVES TO THE EAST
OF LAKE SUPERIOR ON TUESDAY...WEST WINDS TO 30 KTS AND POSSIBLY UP
TO GALE FORCE OF 35 KTS WILL DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT NORTHWEST AND STAY UP TO 30 KTS INTO
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 25 KTS BY
THURSDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LSZ251-267.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LSZ250-265-266.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...TITUS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
327 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO/MARINE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014
A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BRING
MORE CLOUDS IN TONIGHT AND A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES AFTER A BRIEF
PERIOD OF CLEARING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. CLOUDS WILL
MOVE OUT DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY AND MILD TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN.
THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER WILL START TO MAKE ITS WAY IN ON SUNDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY ON MONDAY. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE STORMS WILL MOVE IN SUNDAY
NIGHT AS ANOTHER SURGE OF WARM AIR MOVES UP INTO THE AREA. MORE RAIN
WILL MOVE IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014
NO MAJOR WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE
FCST. CLOUD TRENDS AND THE THREAT OF RAIN TONIGHT WILL BE THE FIRST
FOCUS...THEN TRANSITIONING TO SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE STORMS FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT.
WE ARE STILL EXPECTING A BRIEF WINDOW OF PARTIAL CLEARING TO TAKE
PLACE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE AREA. RESIDUAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THE WEAKENING FRONT HAS HELD OVER THE AREA
THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MORE BREAKS ARE OPENING UP...AND WE
EXPECT THESE TO EXPAND AS THE LOW CLOUDS DISSIPATE AND MOVE OUT.
WE HAVE ADDED A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES TO THE FCST FOR TONIGHT AND
EARLY SAT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. CLOUDS WILL MOVE BACK IN
OVERNIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS THE
MO RIVER AS OF 19Z. THERE IS LESS IN THE WAY OF UPPER SUPPORT WITH
THIS NEXT FRONT COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT/S FRONT. SHORT WAVE ENERGY
AND UPPER JET SUPPORT BOTH STAY WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. WEAK LL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE WORKING ON A MORE MOIST ATMOSPHERE
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. WE DO NOT EXPECT MEASURABLE PCPN TONIGHT OR
SAT MORNING.
THE FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AROUND 12Z SAT...AND
SHOULD EXIT THE CWFA BY ABOUT 20Z OR SO. SHORTLY BEHIND THE
FRONT...THE LOWER CLOUD COVER SHOULD CLEAR OUT AND TEMPS SHOULD
SNEAK INTO THE 60S AS BEST CAA DOES NOT TAKE PLACE UNTIL SAT NIGHT.
WE EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THEN THROUGH SUN EVENING.
RAIN CHANCES WILL MOVE BACK IN ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE CWFA LATE
ON SUN NIGHT. THE STRONG SYSTEM OFF OF THE PACIFIC NW TODAY WILL
OPEN UP A BIT AND TRANSLATE ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS BY
SUN NIGHT. THIS WILL HELP TO STRENGTHEN A WARM FRONT TO OUR SW AND
DRIVE IT IN HERE LATE SUN NIGHT. A DECENT SURGE OF WARMTH AND
MOISTURE ALOFT WILL HELP TO DEVELOP SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW. THUNDER
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ELEVATED LI/S GOING NEGATIVE OVER THE AREA.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014
THIS PERIOD IS ONE OF SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM THE START OF THE
FORECAST ON MONDAY TO THE END OF THE FORECAST ON HALLOWEEN. A STRONG
PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THEN WE GET A GOOD SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE
SYSTEM FOR WEDNESDAY ONLY TO HAVE A DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM WAVE
BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR AN EVEN STRONGER COLD FRONT IN THE THURSDAY
TO FRIDAY TIME FRAME.
THE REMNANTS OF EXTRATROPICAL LOW ASSOCIATED WITH CURRENT PACIFIC
TROPICAL STORM ANA NOW LOCATED WELL NW OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS
MERGES WITH THE PACIFIC SYSTEM MOVING ON SHORE FROM THE GULF OF
ALASKA. TYPICALLY THE MODELS UNDERPLAY THESE SORTS OF SYSTEMS SO I
WOULD IMAGINE WHAT WE WILL ACTUALLY SEE WILL BE STRONGER AND SLOWER
THEN THE MODELS CURRENTLY SHOW. THAT FAVORS THE LOWER ECMWF SO I
HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY. ALSO THERE IS
DECENT INSTABILITY (850 LI NEGATIVE) AND THE LOW LEVEL JET OF 40
KNOTS AT 12Z NEAR SBN INCREASES TO NEAR 50 KNOTS BY DTW BY TUESDAY
EVENING. WHEN WE ADD THE ENTRANCE REGION TO A 100 KNOT 300 MB JET TO
THE PICTURE AND NEAR NEGATIVE TILT UPPER TROUGH... I HAVE TO BELIEVE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MORE THAN POSSIBLE TUESDAY. I PUT LIKELY POPS FOR
THIS.
THAT SYSTEM TAPS SOME COLD AIR SO WE WOULD GET SOME LAKE EFFECT
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY. THE REAL ISSUE IS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. HERE WE
HAVE 130 TO 140 KNOT JET DIVING INTO THE ALREADY CREATED EASTERN
TROUGH. HOW THIS PLAYS OUT DEPEND ON WHAT HAPPENS TO THE UPSTREAM
SYSTEM OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. GIVEN THE MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL
WATERS OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN ALASKA AND WEST OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA... I AM THINKING THAT SYSTEM WILL BE FARTHER WEST AND
DEEPER SO THE UPSTREAM RIDGE WILL BE BIGGER AND THERE WILL BE MORE
DIGGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD BE THE COLDEST WEATHER BY FAR FOR THIS SEASON SO
FAR. I DID NOT PUT SNOW IN THE GRIDS YET BUT DO NOT BE SURPRISED IF
SNOW STARTS SHOWING UP THE GRIDS FOR HALLOWEEN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014
THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY LATE AFTERNOON ONLY TO
REDEVELOP BY MIDNIGHT OR SO.
THE PRIMARY ISSUE IS WHAT HAPPENS TO THE IFR CIGS NORTH AND WEST
OF MKG (OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN...LAKE MICHIGAN... AND NORTHWEST
LOWER MICHIGAN) OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LOOKING AT THE VISIBLE
SATELLITE LOOPS IT SEEMS THE CLEARING IS WORKING NORTHWARD OVER
THE PAST FEW HOURS. THAT TREND GOES ALONG WITH BOTH THE RAP AND NAM
950 TO 850 MB RH FORECAST WHICH ALSO SHOWS CLEARING OF LOW CLOUDS.
BY LATE AFTERNOON MOST LOCATIONS. SO THAT IS WHAT I DID WITH THE
TAF FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
THE NEXT ISSUE IS FOG/STRATUS TONIGHT. THE NAMDNG5...WHICH I HAVE
NOTED DOES VERY NICELY WITH FORECASTING FOG AND FOR THAT MATTER
SO DOES THE RAP13...BOTH SHOW NEARLY THE ENTIRE CWA GOING DOWN IN
FOG BY 09Z. THE PROBLEM THERE THOUGH IS THERE IS 15 TO 20 KNOTS OF
WIND IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THAT WOULD SUGGEST TO ME A STRATUS
DECK IS MORE LIKELY. SO MY TAFS SHOW CLEARING BY LATE AFTERNOON
THEN I BRING THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS BACK LATE TONIGHT. FOR THE MOST
PART THE LOW CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO MIX OUT SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014
WE CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON THE POTENTIAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EVENT FOR
LATE SAT AND SAT NIGHT. SW WINDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE TONIGHT AND
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF SAT. WINDS WILL INCREASE UP TO ABOUT 20
KNOTS BY THEN IN THE FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT COMING THROUGH. WE
WILL SEE A BETTER CHC OF ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON SAT AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT AS COOLER AIR MOVES IN. IT IS LOOKING LIKELY
WE WILL SEE WINDS AND WAVES HIT CRITERIA THROUGH SAT NIGHT BEFORE
COMING DOWN ON SUN.
IT LOOKS LIKE WINDS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN ON MON AND REMAIN UP
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. ADVISORIES WILL BE LIKELY AT
THAT TIME ALSO.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014
NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK. RIVER LEVELS
ARE STARTING OUT AROUND AVERAGE WITH THE RECENT DRY WEATHER WE HAVE
HAD. WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY MEASURABLE PCPN UNTIL AT LEAST SUN
NIGHT.
THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OF PERIODS OF RAIN NEXT WEEK. EACH OF THESE
RAIN EVENTS LOOK TO BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE WITH ONLY A QUARTER TO
HALF AN INCH OF RAIN WITH EACH EVENT. THESE AMOUNTS SPREAD OUT OVER
THE WEEK WILL NOT CAUSE ANY MAJOR RISES ON THE AREA RIVERS.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...WDM
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...NJJ
MARINE...NJJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
209 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014
FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH DRY
WEATHER CURRENTLY FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING...BUT IT SHOULD PASS THROUGH
DRY. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TOPPING OUT AROUND 60 DEGREES EACH DAY. NORMAL HIGHS FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BRING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH WARM AIR. HIGHS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WILL PUSH TOWARDS 70 DEGREES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014
NO REAL CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM WITH DRY WEATHER FORECAST THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE CLOUDS.
WIDESPREAD STRATUS AND STRATOCUMULUS LOCATED UPSTREAM WILL MOVE INTO
LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY AND SHOULD PROVIDE A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY. THERE
IS SOME INDICATION THAT THE CLOUDS MAY BE TRYING TO EXIT THE EASTERN
CWA LATE IN THE DAY WITH CLEARING IN THE WEST...BUT THINKING WE WILL
LIKELY HANG ON TO CLOUDS MUCH OF THE DAY.
CLEARING WILL OCCUR TONIGHT FOR A TIME...BEFORE MOISTURE STREAMS
BACK IN AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. SO...IN
GENERAL A PARTLY CLOUDY NIGHT...BUT WE SHOULD TURN MOSTLY CLOUDY IN
MOST AREAS BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY.
THE FRONT ON SATURDAY STILL LOOKS TO TRAVERSE THE AREA DRY. MOISTURE
IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE IN THE 1000-700MB LAYER AND MOST OF THE
DYNAMICS REMAIN TO THE NORTH. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER WAVE IS LOCATED
IN THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WITH LITTLE IF ANY VERTICAL MOTION DOWN
OUR WAY. CLOUDS SHOULD BE THE MAIN IMPACT WITH THIS SYSTEM.
THE CLOUDS WILL EXIT THE EAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH CLEARING
TAKING PLACE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES INTO THE AREA FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014
THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED INTO VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. MUCH WARMER AIR ARRIVES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
LONG TERM AS A LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE ROCKIES.
THIS PUMPS THE WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION. A WARM
FRONT SHOULD COME THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. ALL THE MODELS SHOW SOME
CONVECTION NORTH OF THE FRONT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-96. I INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY OVER THE NORTHERN CWA
WITH THIS FRONT. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON H8 TEMPS SURGE TO +14C WHICH
SHOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS OF 65 TO 70 ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...
POSSIBLY HIGHER...DEPENDENT ON IF ANY SUN COMES THROUGH BEHIND THE
FRONT.
THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED QUICKER WITH A COLD FRONT THAT APPEARS TO
COME THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING NOW. WE SHOULD SEE A LINE OF SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. THEN...IF THE TIMING VERIFIES WE
SHOULD SEE FALLING TEMPS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS H8 TEMPS CRASH. IN
FACT THE MODELS HAVE ALSO TRENDED COLDER BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH H8
TEMPS PLUNGING TO AROUND -1C BY TUESDAY NIGHT. HAVE LOW POPS FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT IF THE COLDER TREND CONTINUES WE MAY NEED TO
INCREASE POPS AS SOME LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS COULD BE POSSIBLE THEN.
THE MID WEEK PERIOD LOOKS MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL AS THE LONG
WAVE UPPER TROUGH EXITS AND ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 210 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014
THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY LATE AFTERNOON ONLY TO
REDEVELOP BY MIDNIGHT OR SO.
THE PRIMARY ISSUE IS WHAT HAPPENS TO THE IFR CIGS NORTH AND WEST
OF MKG (OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN...LAKE MICHIGAN... AND NORTHWEST
LOWER MICHIGAN) OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LOOKING AT THE VISIBLE
SATELLITE LOOPS IT SEEMS THE CLEARING IS WORKING NORTHWARD OVER
THE PAST FEW HOURS. THAT TREND GOES ALONG WITH BOTH THE RAP AND NAM
950 TO 850 MB RH FORECAST WHICH ALSO SHOWS CLEARING OF LOW CLOUDS.
BY LATE AFTERNOON MOST LOCATIONS. SO THAT IS WHAT I DID WITH THE
TAF FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
THE NEXT ISSUE IS FOG/STRATUS TONIGHT. THE NAMDNG5...WHICH I HAVE
NOTED DOES VERY NICELY WITH FORECASTING FOG AND FOR THAT MATTER
SO DOES THE RAP13...BOTH SHOW NEARLY THE ENTIRE CWA GOING DOWN IN
FOG BY 09Z. THE PROBLEM THERE THOUGH IS THERE IS 15 TO 20 KNOTS OF
WIND IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THAT WOULD SUGGEST TO ME A STRATUS
DECK IS MORE LIKELY. SO MY TAFS SHOW CLEARING BY LATE AFTERNOON
THEN I BRING THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS BACK LATE TONIGHT. FOR THE MOST
PART THE LOW CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO MIX OUT SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW TODAY WILL KEEP WAVE HEIGHTS IN CHECK. SOUTH
WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT BUT SHOULD
STAY JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE NEXT TIME FRAME
OF CONCERN WILL BE SATURDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT WHERE WEST AND
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL LIKELY RAMP INTO THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE. WAVES
SHOULD BUILD INTO THE 3 TO 6 FOOT RANGE. AT THIS POINT WILL HOLD OFF
ON A PERIOD 3 SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. ONE WILL LIKELY BE NEED THOUGH.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014
HYDRO CONCERNS ARE LIMITED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH LOW RIVER
LEVELS AND NO PRECIPITATION FORECAST. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SOLID RAIN
COMES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRAVERSES THE AREA. PWAT VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 1.25 INCHES WHICH
IS ABOVE THE 75 PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE AMOUNT OF RAIN
EXPECTED THOUGH SHOULD BE ABLE TO BE ABSORBED WITHOUT ISSUE GIVEN
LOW FLOWS.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...DUKE
MARINE...DUKE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
628 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014
SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE THE RETURN OF DEEPER
MOISTURE TONIGHT AND LOW CLOUDS/FOG DEVELOPMENT.
SEASONABLY STRONG 130-150KT UPPER LEVEL JETS WERE LOCATED OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. THESE FEATURES WERE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE H5 TROF OFF THE WEST COAST AND ATTENDANT 130M+
HEIGHT FALLS. IN ADDITION...THERE WAS A NEGATIVELY TILTED H5 TROF
NORTH OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. A BROAD H5 RIDGE WAS SITUATED OVER
THE ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. AT H85...THE THERMAL
RIDGE WAS OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE DEEP MOISTURE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILED ACROSS THE REGION WITH SUNSHINE AND MUCH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S/80S. RECORDS FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR ARE IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90...SO WELL BELOW THOSE
LEVELS.
WE HAD SOME DENSE FOG THAT DEVELOPED FROM ILLINOIS INTO
MISSOURI...AND SPREAD INTO SOUTHERN IOWA AND SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA...WHERE THE SURFACE DEWPOINTS WERE HIGH AHEAD OF THE
DRIER AIR.
AT 20Z...SURFACE DEWPOINTS VARIED FROM THE LOWER 30S IN THE NORTH
NEAR THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER TO THE MID 50S JUST SOUTH OF
BEATRICE. TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
INFLUENCE THE AREA WITH DRY AIR. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST
TO INCREASE AND H85 WINDS SHOULD BE AROUND 25 TO 35KTS. THE HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS DO NOT GO OUT FAR ENOUGH ON SUNDAY. THE
NAM/SREF ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAN THE
GFS. THE RAP IS SIMILIAR TO THE NAM AND IS STRONGER WITH THE
FORCING.
AS THE SURFACE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH...THERE WILL BE
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DEEPER MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS THAT WILL
FAVOR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. DO MENTION AREAS OF FOG IN THE
SOUTHWEST AND PATCHY FOG INTO THE CENTRAL ZONES/ THERE MAY BE SOME
SPRINKLES OR DRIZZLE AND DEPENDING ON HOW LONG THE LOW CLOUDS HANG
ON...WOULD AFFECT TEMPERATURES. THE MIXING FROM OMAHA NORTH AND
NORTHEAST IS MORE QUESTIONABLE...THUS HAVE HIGHS 70 TO 75 WITH
WARMER 75 TO 80 DEGREE TEMPS IN THE SOUTH FOR SUNDAY.
A COOL FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND THERE MAY BE SOME POST
FRONTAL SHOWERS MONDAY. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 60S AND 70S. BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014
THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS GENERALLY DRY. A WEAK FRONT PASSES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES FOR THE REST
OF THE EXTENDED. THE EC DOES BRING THE RIDGING EAST...HOWEVER THE
GFS IS SLOWER WITH THIS...THUS THE COOLER HIGHS IN THE 50S FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY COMPARED TO THE 60S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATER TONIGHT. CEILINGS MAY DROP
INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AND THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME FOG. MOST LIKELY
AREA FOR FOG WITH VSBY UNDER 3 MILES IS KLNK. AS WINDS ALOFT
INCREASE AT AROUND 1000 FEET...SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND LAST INTO MID MORNING SUNDAY.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
AVIATION...MILLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1143 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A PATCH OF LIFR
CIGS/VSBYS DEVELOPING ALONG THE PECOS RIVER VALLEY IN THE VICINITY
OF KROW BY 09Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY...THERE MAY BE MORE
HIGH CLOUD COVER THAN INDICATED IN TAFS. IF MORE CIRRUS
EXISTS...CHANCES OF FOG DEVELOPING IN THE MORENO VALLEY
OVERNIGHT...NEAR KAXX...IS EVEN LOWER. THUS...CONFIDENCE REMAINS
QUITE LOW THAT FOG WILL DEVELOP IN THIS AREA.
34
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...919 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014...
.UPDATE...
WILL ADD LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG FOR THE PECOS RIVER VALLEY FROM
FORT SUMNER ON SOUTH AND FOR MOST OF ROOSEVELT COUNTY FOR LATER
TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. BASED THIS ON LATEST HRRR MODEL
RUN SUGGESTING MVR AND LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA, ALSO
ONLY 4 DEGREE TEMPERATURE...DEWPOINT SPREAD CURRENTLY. ZONES OUT
SHORTLY. CHJ
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...310 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY PATTERN THROUGH THE NEARLY THE NEXT WEEK AND A HALF...EXCEPTING
ONLY THE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY PERIOD WHEN SOME FORECAST
MODELS INDICATE RATHER LOW CHANCE AND LOW QPF PRECIPITATION ACROSS
SOME PORTION OF NORTH NEW MEXICO AS 2 OR 3 SHORT WAVES RACE EAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WITHIN A BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH. THESE
WAVES WILL ALSO RESULT IN SOME BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS
MAINLY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND SOME DEGREE...AHEM...OF TEMPERATURE
DROP. NEARER TERM AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THEN PASSES EAST OF THE
STATE EXPECT SOME NEAR RECORD TO RECORD AFTERNOON WARMTH...MAINLY
EAST.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
TRANQUIL WX PATTERN FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT 10 DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT BUILDS INTO NM TONIGHT AND FRI...THEN PASSES TO EAST OF THE
STATE SAT AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH CONTAINING SOME SHORT WAVES NEARS.
WITH MOISTURE GETTING EVER MORE SHALLOW EAST OF CENTRAL MTN CHAIN
AS DRY INTRUSION TAKES ITS SWEET TIME SCOURING OUT SAID MOISTURE...
FOG SHOULD BE LESS OF A PROBLEM LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
FRI...COMPARED TO EARLY TODAY...THOUGH WOULD NOT RULE OUT SOME
VERY LOCALIZED FOG PATCHES SE PLAINS AND MORENO VALLEY. OF LITTLE
OVERALL SIGNIFICANT WILL BE A BIT OF HIGH CLOUDINESS WHICH MAY
CROSS NM LATER TONIGHT INTO AT LEAST FRI MORN.
IMPOSING UPPER RIDGE WILL BE DIRECTLY OVER THE STATE FRI WITH H5
PRESSURE HEIGHTS REACHING AT SUMMER LIKE LEVELS. RESULT WILL BE
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WITH ABOVE AVERAGE AFTN TEMPS AREAWIDE AND
AT LEAST A FEW RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGHS...NAMELY IN NE THIRD OR
SO OF THE STATE. FOR THE MOST PART STAYED ON LOW SIDE OF...OR A
BIT BELOW...GUIDANCE AS IT IS LATE OCTOBER AND ALSO LOOKING AT NOT
MUCH OF A WARMING DOWNSLOPE FACTOR. SAT SHOULD BE A NEAR REPEAT
PERFORMANCE TEMPERATURE WISE. MORE HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO FILTER
IN FROM THE W AND SW BETWEEN LATE SAT AND SUN.
AS WINDS ALOFT STRENGTHEN WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH SUN THE
LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS AND STRENGTHENS AS WELL THUS...THE
STRONGER DOWNSLOPING BREEZES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
NORMAL IN THE EAST...A BIT LESS SO WEST. SOME FURTHER STRENGTHENING
GRADIENT AND WINDS ALOFT WILL GIVE WAY TO A TROUGH PASSAGE MON.
FORECAST MODELS ARE IN BETTER THOUGH NOT PERFECT AGREEMENT ON
STRENGTH AND TIMING OF UPPER TROUGH AS IT CROSSES THE STATE.
CANADIAN AND ECMWF ARE SOMEWHAT MORE BULLISH THAN THE GFS ON
RELATIVELY LOW QPF POPS ACROSS NORTH THIRD TO HALF OF NM SUN TO
MON...BUT HAVE KEPT POPS LOWER THAN WHAT THE FORMER TWO MODELS
IMPLY.
43
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER...NOT EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK.
MODELS...IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON NEXT
WEEK...WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN PATTERN TIMING AND FEATURE PLACEMENT
EMERGING FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD. RIDGE CORE SQUARELY OVER NEW MEXICO
WILL PLAY AGAINST INBOUND WEST COAST TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE
EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA TO PACIFIC WATERS WELL OFF THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA COAST. TROUGH WILL DIG TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SWING
ASHORE ON SATURDAY AS RIDGE CORE NUDGES EASTWARD TO THE HEART OF
TEXAS. TROUGH BASE WILL SHEAR EASTWARD RAPIDLY ACROSS NEW MEXICO
WITH TRAILING WAVE SWEEPING INTO WESTERN NEW MEXICO MONDAY MORNING
AND INTO TEXAS BY MONDAY NIGHT. FLOW WILL GRADUALLY SHEAR NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE TROUGH HEADING INTO MIDWEEK. MODELS DIVERGING FROM
WEDNESDAY ONWARD...WITH EUROPEAN COLLEAGUES AT ECMWF BACKING FLOW
ALOFT TO ZONAL ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN TO SOUTHWEST BY THE WEEKEND AS
NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO THE LAKE
TAHOE REGION OF NORTHWEST NEVADA...AND RIDGE CORE BUILDS OVER EAST
TEXAS. PATTERN LEAVES NEW MEXICO IN STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT FROM MIDWEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. DOMESTIC GFS SOLUTION...IN
CONTRAST...DIGS TROUGH RAPIDLY OUT OF OTHERWISE ZONAL FLOW FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS STATES TO THE TEXAS BIG BEND COUNTRY ON
WEDNESDAY...AND ACCELERATES THIS FEATURE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY FRIDAY MORNING...LEAVING NEW MEXICO
UNDER WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...AND FINALLY UNDER A DOMINATING
RIDGE CORE BY THE WEEKEND. ECMWF SOLUTION SEEMS A SMOOTHER AND
EASIER TRANSITION OUT OF MIDWEEK AGREEMENT...WITH GFS SOLUTION
REQUIRING SOME SHARPER AMPLIFICATIONS UP AND DOWNSTREAM IN ORDER TO
GET THE DESIRED EFFECT OVER NEW MEXICO. WILL TILT FORECAST THINKING
TOWARD ECMWF PLAN PENDING BETTER FORECAST AGREEMENT FOR THE LAST
HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.
OVERNIGHT...STEADY TEMPERATURE REGIME OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS.
FOG WILL DEVELOP MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF A RUIDOSO TO TUCUMCARI
LINE OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS.
FOR FRIDAY...RIDGE CORE REMAINING SQUARELY OVER NEW MEXICO...AS DOME
OF HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OVER THE FOUR CORNERS. WARMING TREND
CONTINUING...WITH 10 TO 20 DEGREE WARM EXCURSIONS ABOVE NORMAL OVER
THE EAST AND NORTHEAST. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL RUN IN THE UPPER
TEENS PCT OVER THE NORTH...AND IN THE 20S PCT OVER THE
SOUTH....REFLECTIVE OF A DRYING IN CONCERT WITH THE WARMING.
VENTILATION DEGRADED IN THE WEST...AND ONLY MARGINALLY BETTER IN THE
EAST. FAIR TO GOOD HUMIDITY RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT...WITH EXCELLENT
RECOVERIES OVER THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS UNDER FOGGY CONDITIONS FRIDAY
NIGHT.
FOR SATURDAY...STEADY TEMPERATURES RUNNING 10 TO 20 DEGREES WARMER
THAN NORMAL FOR ANOTHER DAY WITH HUMIDITIES REMAINING IN THE TEENS
NORTH AND 20S SOUTH. VENTILATION IMPROVING TO GOOD TO VERY GOOD
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY WITH SOME INCREASES IN TRANSPORT WINDS AS
RIDGE CORE SLIDES EASTWARD INTO THE HEART OF TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST
WIND SPEEDS PICK UP OVER NEW MEXICO BEHIND THE RIDGE CORE. GENERALLY
LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
FOR SUNDAY...APPROACHING TROUGH WILL SHEAR ACROSS NEW MEXICO WITH
DRAMATIC UP TICK IN WIND SPEEDS ALOFT...AND QUICK TURBULENCE PICKING
UP IN THE FLOW. COOLER PUSH INTO THE NORTH AND WEST WILL WALK THESE
TEMPERATURES BACK FROM RECORD VALUES...WITH LESS CHANGE IN ANOTHER
WARM DAY OVER THE EAST AND SOUTH. PATTERN WILL BRING BOOSTS TO
HUMIDITIES WITH ASSOCIATED MOISTURE BOOST...WITH MOST SPOTS
BOTTOMING IN THE 20S AND UPPER TEENS PCT SUNDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FROM THE
ARIZONA LINE TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...AND ACROSS THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. VENTILATION QUALITY WILL ENJOY ANOTHER BOOST AND
END UP IN THE EXCELLENT CATEGORY WITH STRONG TRANSPORT WINDS AND
CONTINUED ELEVATED MIXING HEIGHTS. TURBULENCE IN FLOW OVERHEAD
SUNDAY NIGHT COMBINED WITH MOISTURE MAY HELP SUPPORT SOME NORTHERN
MOUNTAIN OVERNIGHT SHOWERS...AND SOME SNOW OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY
NEAR THE COLORADO LINE. EXCELLENT HUMIDITY RECOVERIES OVER THE NORTH
AND WEST...WITH GOOD RECOVERY OVER THE SOUTH AND EAST.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SPOTTY SHOWER COVERAGE OVER THE
NORTHERN HIGH COUNTRY MONDAY NIGHT SHIFTING TO THE EAST TUESDAY
BEFORE ENDING TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS PAIR OF SHORTWAVES WORKS THROUGH
RAPIDLY UNDER THE BASE OF A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S.
COOLING TREND TO START THE WEEK WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID
WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW NORMAL BY TUESDAY AND
RECOVERING SLOWLY BACK TOWARD NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY. HUMIDITIES
REMAINING IN THE 20S AND TEENS PCT...WITH DRYING TRENDS SHIFTING OUT
OF THE EAST AND INTO THE WEST THROUGH MIDWEEK. GUSTY FLOW OVERHEAD
WILL SUPPORT GUSTY SURFACE WINDS OVER THE EASTERN FOOTHILLS OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SPEEDS DROPPED OFF
RAPIDLY ON TUESDAY AS COOL PUSH INVADES EASTERN NEW MEXICO FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES AS THE DYNAMIC ACTION ALOFT BARRELS INTO
TEXAS. LOW LEVEL WIND DIRECTIONS SWINGING AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH SOME AFTERNOON BREEZES OVER THE EASTERN FOOTHILLS
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
SHY
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
842 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014
.DISCUSSION...
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS THIS
EVENING IS GRADUALLY GETTING SUPPRESSED...AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES EAST INTO THE NORTHWEST CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...A
STATIONARY FRONT LIES ACROSS NORTHERN KS OVER INTO CENTRAL MO. TO
THE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 60S. HIGHER THAN
NORMAL MOISTURE NEAR THE GROUND COMBINED WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL ALLOW FOG TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS. THE LATEST
GUIDANCE FROM THE HRRR AND NAM IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH OUR
FORECAST...AND THE ONLY TWEAK MADE WAS TO INTRODUCE FOG SOONER
ACROSS PORTIONS OF FAR EASTERN OK WHERE A REPORT OF FOG HAS BEEN
RECEIVED.
INCREASING MID LEVEL FLOW OVER THE ROCKPILE DUE TO THE FLATTENING
OF THE RIDGE MENTIONED EARLIER WILL PRODUCE A STRONG LEE TROUGH
AT THE SURFACE OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON SUNDAY. AS A
RESULT...LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME QUITE BREEZY ON SUNDAY
OUT OF THE SOUTH BY AFTERNOON...IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE ACROSS
NORTHEAST OK. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AND FULL INSOLATION WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB A BIT HIGHER THAN TODAY...WITH READINGS NEAR
90 ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST OK. HARD TO BELIEVE THIS IS OCCURRING
IN LATE OCTOBER. A DOSE OF REALITY IS COMING NEXT WEEK HOWEVER.
LACY
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 639 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014/
AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FOG LIKELY DEVELOPING AT SITES KBVO/KFYV/KXNA/KFSM AFTER
07Z. POTENTIAL IFR FOG/STRATUS...ESPECIALLY KFSM 09Z-14Z.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS...GENERALLY SKC. BRISK SOUTHERLY
WIND DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WITH GUST TO 20-25KT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014/
DISCUSSION...
IT IS LATE OCTOBER BUT THAT FACT IS NOT READILY APPARENT BY THE
CURRENT TEMPERATURES OR THE FORECAST TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. NEAR RECORD HEAT PREVAILS TODAY...WITH AT LEAST A
COUPLE OF SITES LIKELY TO BE WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF RECORD
HIGHS TOMORROW.
PATCHY DENSE FOG COULD BECOME AN ISSUE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY TOMORROW...WITH THE BIGGEST PROBLEMS LIKELY TO AGAIN BE IN
FAR EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS ALONG THE
ARKANSAS RIVER...AND POSSIBLY IN THE CANEY RIVER VALLEY NEAR
BARTLESVILLE AS WELL. NAM HANDLED THIS MORNINGS FOG THE BEST...AND
ITS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES LOOK SIMILAR TOMORROW MORNING.
CROSS OVER TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAVORABLE FOR THE DENSE FOG
DEVELOPMENT AGAIN. MUCH LIKE TODAY...THE FOG SHOULD BE GONE BY MID
TO LATE MORNING AND PROVIDE LITTLE HINDRANCE TO THE WARM UP. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN TODAYS
IN MOST SPOTS...DESPITE THE FLATTENING OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. A STRONGER SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND AHEAD OF A
SLOWLY APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD MORE THAN BALANCE THAT OUT.
THE FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO ENTER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY
MIDDAY MONDAY...WHICH WILL PLACE THE PREFRONTAL WARM NOSE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE TRICKY ON MONDAY DUE TO A COUPLE OF FACTORS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA BY THE
AFTERNOON...AND THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED MORNING
LOW CLOUDS IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. IN ADDITION...A COOLER AIRMASS
OVER THE GULF COAST THIS MORNING WILL MIGRATE INTO EASTERN PARTS
OF THE REGION ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNTIED STATES. THIS COOLER AIRMASS WILL OFFSET...AT
LEAST TO SOME EXTENT...PREFRONTAL WARMING EFFECTS. DESPITE THESE
COMPLICATIONS...CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT THERE WILL BE A
ZONE ACROSS AT LEAST EASTERN OKLAHOMA WHERE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
ABOVE GUIDANCE VALUES. RIGHT NOW...IT APPEARS THAT WILL BE
SOMEWHERE FROM INTERSTATE 44 SOUTHWARD TO ABOUT MCALESTER AND
WILBURTON.
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY AS THE
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AND THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PLAINS.
THUNDER POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO LOOK MINIMAL BUT NON ZERO. THE
FRONT SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY...BRINGING AN END
TO THE RAIN.
MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THIS FRONT AND
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK. WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES APPEAR IN THE OFFING FOR NEXT WEEKEND...AS MERIDIONAL
FLOW DEVELOPS IN THE PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO A DEEP UPPER TROUGH IN
THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE UNITED STATES. IT IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION THAT WE MAY SEE THE FIRST FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES OF THE
SEASON SOMETIME NEXT WEEKEND IF EXPECTATIONS DO NOT CHANGE IN THE
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 62 90 65 84 / 0 0 0 10
FSM 59 88 60 83 / 0 0 0 10
MLC 63 88 64 86 / 0 0 0 10
BVO 56 90 61 82 / 0 0 0 10
FYV 57 86 60 79 / 0 0 0 10
BYV 59 84 62 80 / 0 0 0 10
MKO 60 89 62 85 / 0 0 0 10
MIO 60 87 64 83 / 0 0 0 10
F10 62 88 64 86 / 0 0 0 10
HHW 61 87 60 83 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
LONG TERM....30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPPDATE
NWS PORTLAND OR
547 PM PDT SAT OCT 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING NORTHEASTWARD INTO
WESTERN WASHINGTON WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
A SHOWERY AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA TONIGHT AND LAST INTO
SUNDAY. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN TO THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH ADDITIONAL WET PERIODS LIKELY TOWARDS THE END
OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
UPDATED HEADLINES
.SHORT TERM...BUOY 89 AND BUOY 29 HAVE BOTTOMED OUT IN THE 983 TO
984 MB RANGE AS A LOW PRESSURE MOVED BETWEEN THEM. THIS LOW PRESSURE
IS CURRENTLY ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR GRAYS HARBOR WASHINGTON.
PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE BEGINNING TO OPEN UP ACROSS THE REGION WITH
WIDESPREAD 50 TO 65 MPH WINDS ACTIVELY OCCURRING ACROSS OUR COASTAL
COMMUNITIES WITH UP TO 80 TO 90 MPH WIND GUSTS REPORTED AT THE MOST
EXPOSED BEACHES AND HEADLANDS. WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 55 MPH
HAVE BEEN REPORTED ACROSS THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY IN THE LAST TWO
HOURS.
THERE HAVE BEEN A NUMBER OF REPORTS OF POWER LINES AND TREES DOWN
ACROSS THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN
WHETHER OR NOT 60 MPH GUSTS WILL SURFACE...BUT GIVEN THE IMPACTS OF
CURRENT WINDS...WILL KEEP HIGH WIND WARNINGS GOING EVEN IF CRITERIA
BY PURE WIND SPEEDS IS NOT MET. WITH THAT SAID...SOUTH TO NORTH
PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE QUICKLY INCREASING AND ARE CURRENTLY 20MB
BETWEEN KBOK-KAST...15MB BETWEEN KMFR-KAST...AND 4MB BETWEEN
KEUG-KPDX. RAP GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE KEUG-KPDX GRADIENT WILL INCREASE
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS TO NEAR 10MB. WHEN COMBINED WITH A
DESTABILIZING LOWER ATMOSPHERE...THIS SHOULD HELP HIGHER WINDS ALOFT
SURFACE ACROSS THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
EXPECT BREEZY WEATHER FOR THE REGION WELL INTO THIS EVENING...BUT THE
HIGHEST WINDS SHOULD BE OVER BETWEEN 5 PM AND 7 PM FOR THE WILLAMETTE
VALLEY.
IN ADDITION...THE BENT BACK OCCLUSION MAY BRING A STRONG WEST TO
NORTHWEST SURGE OF WINDS TO THE SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST...WILLAPA
HILLS AND LOWER COLUMBIA RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING SO HIGH WIND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR A FEW HOURS LONGER IN
THESE LOCATIONS VERSUS LOCATIONS FARTHER SOUTH.
VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE REST OF THE
FORECAST DUE TO THE FOCUS ON THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM. MUCH COOLER
AND SHOWERY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY...LIKELY BRINGING 1 TO
3 INCHES OF SNOW TO THE HIGH COUNTRY ABOVE 4500 TO 5000
FEET...PERHAPS A BIT HIGHER ABOVE 6000 FT. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN
THE WET WEATHER MONDAY...A FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN TO
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY LESS
WITH THIS SYSTEM THAN WITH THE CURRENT SYSTEM...AND THE FRONT
APPEARS AS THOUGH IT WILL BE TRANSIENT ENOUGH THAT FLOOD CONCERNS
WITH THIS SYSTEM APPEAR MINIMAL. /NEUMAN
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE THIS WEEK. SHORTWAVES IN THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING THE CHANCE FOR RAIN
ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THERE
WILL BE A COUPLE WEAK FRONTS...ONE WHICH MOVES ONSHORE TUESDAY AND A
SECOND THAT MOVES ONSHORE LATE THIS WEEK. THESE WILL BRING THE BEST
CHANCE FOR MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS...WITH MAINLY LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED
INTERMITTENTLY BEHIND THE FIRST FRONT ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE
SECOND FRONT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE AROUND FRIDAY. -MCCOY
&&
.AVIATION...A DEEP LOW PRES IS ABOUT 50 MILES OFF THE OREGON
COAST WILL PUSH INLAND OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON BY 5 PM TODAY.
STRONG S TO SW WINDS THROUGH 03Z. MOSTLY VFR...BUT WILL HAVE
POCKETS OF MVFR UNDER SHOWERS. EXPECT ISOLATED TSTMS...MAINLY FROM
COAST RANGE AND WESTWARD. CONDITIONS RELAX AFTER 03Z...WITH
WIDESPREAD LOW VFR AND MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING. MOSTLY VFR...BUT WILL HAVE OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS AT TIMES.
GUSTY S WINDS WITH GUSTS 35 TO 45 KT CONTINUE UNTIL 02Z...THEN
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY RELAX. ROCKEY.
&&
.MARINE...A 983 MB LOW ABOUT 50 MILES WEST OF ASTORIA WILL MOVE
ONSHORE JUST NORTH OF WILLAPA BAY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. STORM
WARNING IN EFFECT...WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. WINDS WILL DROP OFF AFTER
6 PM...WITH GALES THROUGH EVENING. WINDS EASE FURTHER OVERNIGHT.
WIND GENERATED SEAS HAVE BUILD RAPIDLY. SEAS PEAKED AT 30 FT AT
BUOY 50 AROUND NOON...AND ARE STILL 25 TO 30 FT ON OREGON WATERS
WITH SEAS 20 TO 25 FT FURTHER N. AS WINDS DROP OFF...SEAS WILL
RELAX. SEAS LIKELY TO DROP BACK TO AROUND 15 FT AROUND MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT...AND DOWN A BIT FURTHER FOR SUN.ROCKEY.
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM TODAY FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL
WILLAMETTE VALLEY...AND NORTH COAST RANGE.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM TODAY FOR LOWER COLUMBIA.
WA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM TODAY FOR CLARK COUNTY.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR I-5
CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY...THE WILLAPA HILLS AND
THE SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST.
PZ...STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM TODAY ON ALL COASTAL WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR CONDITIONS
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
$$
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
1139 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1138 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014
FOG HAS DISSIPATED AT MID MORNING AS EXPECTED...AND NOW WILL BE
DEALING WITH A QUIET AND MILD DAY. PROBLEM IS THE EXTENT OF CIRRUS
ACROSS THE AREA. DO EXPECT THIS TO THIN GOING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...BUT GIVEN THE WEAK FLOW BELOW IMPRESSIVE INVERSION ON
THE KABR 12Z RAOB...WILL PERHAPS BE A STRUGGLE TO WARM QUITE AS
MUCH AS EXPECTED. LOOKS LIKE TEMPS WILL START TO COME UP FAIRLY
QUICKLY INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...AT WHICH TIME A BIT
STRONGER WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND WILL DEVELOP...AND WARMING RATES
WILL SLOW CONSIDERABLY. COULD STILL SEE A FEW READINGS TOWARD THE
UPPER 70S IN LOWER BRULE LOCATIONS...BUT MOSTLY LOWER TO A FEW MID
70S EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014
UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...CENTERED
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN PLAINS...EXTENDING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WESTERN PLAINS. THIS WILL HELP TO GIVE EXTREMELY MILD
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR TODAY...BUT LOOKS TO BE SHORT OF
RECORDS AS THEY ARE STILL IN THE 80S.
BUT FIRST...PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY HAVE TO CONTEND WITH
MORNING FOG AGAIN. THE ORGANIZED AREA OF DENSE FOG IS TO THE EAST OF
OUR FORECAST AREA...WITH SOME INDICATIONS PER THE HRRR AND RAP13
THAT THIS FOG MAY BACK INTO OUR EXTREME EASTERN ZONES AROUND SUNRISE
WHEN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW DECREASES. THEREFORE KEPT AREAS OF FOG GOING
IN THAT AREA AROUND SPENCER AND STORM LAKE IA. ELSEWHERE DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE ARE CREEPING UP...ADVECTING NORTHWARD
FROM NEB. IN ADDITION...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS MOVING SLOWLY
EASTWARD...CURRENTLY BETWEEN CHAMBERLAIN AND THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
AS IT MOVES EASTWARD...THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE
IN THE PRE DAWN HOURS ALONG THE I 29 CORRIDOR AND EAST CENTRAL SD.
SURFACE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE ALREADY GETTING SMALL IN EAST
CENTRAL SD...WHERE AGAIN THE HRRR AND RAP13 DEVELOP FOG BY
SUNRISE...THEN DRAIN SOME OF IT SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD PIPESTONE AND
LUVERNE MN ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE BUFFALO RIDGE. ACCOUNTED FOR
THIS POSSIBILITY IN THE FORECAST BY ADDING AN AREAS OF FOG MENTION
FOR OUR EAST CENTRAL SD ZONES. OTHERWISE ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT SHOULD
ABATE BY AROUND 15Z OR SLIGHTLY LATER...LEAVING SOME CIRRUS IN PLACE
FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. BUT HIGHS LOOK VERY MILD...WITH THE RAW
BIAS CORRECTED VALUES LOOKING THE BEST IN GIVING READINGS WELL INTO
THE 70S. WINDS AS THEY SHIFT TO THE WEST OR NORTHWEST WILL ALSO NOT
BECOME VERY STRONG AT ALL...SO LOOKS LIKE A VERY PLEASANT AFTERNOON.
NOT A LOT GOING ON TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. GENERALLY
LOOKING AT LOWS ABOUT 40 TO 45 UNDER LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014
STILL LOOKS LIKE A PLEASANT WEEKEND ACROSS THE REGION WITH UPPER
RIDGING BUILDING IN. TEMPERATURES ALOFT COOL A BIT BEHIND TODAYS
FRONT...BUT SHOULD STILL SEE 60S AND 70S BOTH DAYS. BASED ON LATEST
GUIDANCE...DID BUMP HIGHS UP A TAD BOTH DAYS. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
SUNDAY...AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. COULD BE ENOUGH TO GET
SOME LOW STRATUS TO DEVELOP...WHICH IF IT DOES...COULD HOLD
TEMPERATURES DOWN. SO WILL STAY CONSERVATIVE ON HIGHS SUNDAY...BUT
IF IT STAYS SUNNY WILL LIKELY END UP WARMER THAN CURRENT FORECAST.
SHOULD STAY DRY THROUGH SUNDAY...AS DESPITE SOME FORCING...MID
LEVELS REMAIN QUITE DRY. LOOKING AT LOWS IN THE 40S SATURDAY NIGHT
AND CLOSER TO 50 SUNDAY NIGHT AS WE STAY MORE MIXED.
MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON EVOLUTION OF THE TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. BEST FORCING COMES POST
FRONTAL...AND LOOKS LIKE THE TROUGH WILL STAY POSITIVELY TITLED AS IT
SWINGS ACROSS. THUS FORCING AND MOISTURE NOT ALL THAT GREAT. STILL
LOOKS LIKE WE COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...BUT
NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT. WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
COLDER TEMPERATURES MOVING IN ALOFT...MONDAY WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE
50S AND 60S...WARMEST IN NORTHWEST IOWA.
COLDER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE TROUGH...WITH TUESDAY LIKELY THE
COOLEST DAY. WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN WHAT WE HAVE BEEN
SEEING...WITH LOW TO MID 50S EXPECTED. ALTHOUGH THESE VALUES ARE
ONLY SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE. SHOULD BE BREEZY ON TUESDAY AS
WELL...WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING AROUND 30 MPH. MODELS
DIVERGE MID WEEK...DUE TO DIFFERENCES ON STRENGTH OF OUR NEXT
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE. SO FOR NOW WILL STAY WITH CONSENSUS VALUES
FOR HIGHS...GIVING MID 50S. AT THIS TIME DOES NOT LOOK LIKE WE SEE
ANY GREAT RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHTS...WITH HIGH PRESSURE NEVER
SETTLING OVERHEAD. THUS DESPITE THE COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT...AS
OF NOW JUST GOING WITH LOWS IN THE 30S TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. NOT SEEING ANY GREAT PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH
THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS OF NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1138 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z SAT.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CHAPMAN
SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...CHENARD
AVIATION...CHAPMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
629 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014
UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...CENTERED
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN PLAINS...EXTENDING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WESTERN PLAINS. THIS WILL HELP TO GIVE EXTREMELY MILD
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR TODAY...BUT LOOKS TO BE SHORT OF
RECORDS AS THEY ARE STILL IN THE 80S.
BUT FIRST...PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY HAVE TO CONTEND WITH
MORNING FOG AGAIN. THE ORGANIZED AREA OF DENSE FOG IS TO THE EAST OF
OUR FORECAST AREA...WITH SOME INDICATIONS PER THE HRRR AND RAP13
THAT THIS FOG MAY BACK INTO OUR EXTREME EASTERN ZONES AROUND SUNRISE
WHEN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW DECREASES. THEREFORE KEPT AREAS OF FOG GOING
IN THAT AREA AROUND SPENCER AND STORM LAKE IA. ELSEWHERE DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE ARE CREEPING UP...ADVECTING NORTHWARD
FROM NEB. IN ADDITION...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS MOVING SLOWLY
EASTWARD...CURRENTLY BETWEEN CHAMBERLAIN AND THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
AS IT MOVES EASTWARD...THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE
IN THE PRE DAWN HOURS ALONG THE I 29 CORRIDOR AND EAST CENTRAL SD.
SURFACE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE ALREADY GETTING SMALL IN EAST
CENTRAL SD...WHERE AGAIN THE HRRR AND RAP13 DEVELOP FOG BY
SUNRISE...THEN DRAIN SOME OF IT SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD PIPESTONE AND
LUVERNE MN ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE BUFFALO RIDGE. ACCOUNTED FOR
THIS POSSIBILITY IN THE FORECAST BY ADDING AN AREAS OF FOG MENTION
FOR OUR EAST CENTRAL SD ZONES. OTHERWISE ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT SHOULD
ABATE BY AROUND 15Z OR SLIGHTLY LATER...LEAVING SOME CIRRUS IN PLACE
FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. BUT HIGHS LOOK VERY MILD...WITH THE RAW
BIAS CORRECTED VALUES LOOKING THE BEST IN GIVING READINGS WELL INTO
THE 70S. WINDS AS THEY SHIFT TO THE WEST OR NORTHWEST WILL ALSO NOT
BECOME VERY STRONG AT ALL...SO LOOKS LIKE A VERY PLEASANT AFTERNOON.
NOT A LOT GOING ON TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. GENERALLY
LOOKING AT LOWS ABOUT 40 TO 45 UNDER LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014
STILL LOOKS LIKE A PLEASANT WEEKEND ACROSS THE REGION WITH UPPER
RIDGING BUILDING IN. TEMPERATURES ALOFT COOL A BIT BEHIND TODAYS
FRONT...BUT SHOULD STILL SEE 60S AND 70S BOTH DAYS. BASED ON LATEST
GUIDANCE...DID BUMP HIGHS UP A TAD BOTH DAYS. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
SUNDAY...AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. COULD BE ENOUGH TO GET
SOME LOW STRATUS TO DEVELOP...WHICH IF IT DOES...COULD HOLD
TEMPERATURES DOWN. SO WILL STAY CONSERVATIVE ON HIGHS SUNDAY...BUT
IF IT STAYS SUNNY WILL LIKELY END UP WARMER THAN CURRENT FORECAST.
SHOULD STAY DRY THROUGH SUNDAY...AS DESPITE SOME FORCING...MID
LEVELS REMAIN QUITE DRY. LOOKING AT LOWS IN THE 40S SATURDAY NIGHT
AND CLOSER TO 50 SUNDAY NIGHT AS WE STAY MORE MIXED.
MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON EVOLUTION OF THE TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. BEST FORCING COMES POST
FRONTAL...AND LOOKS LIKE THE TROUGH WILL STAY POSITIVELY TITLED AS IT
SWINGS ACROSS. THUS FORCING AND MOISTURE NOT ALL THAT GREAT. STILL
LOOKS LIKE WE COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...BUT
NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT. WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
COLDER TEMPERATURES MOVING IN ALOFT...MONDAY WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE
50S AND 60S...WARMEST IN NORTHWEST IOWA.
COLDER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE TROUGH...WITH TUESDAY LIKELY THE
COOLEST DAY. WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN WHAT WE HAVE BEEN
SEEING...WITH LOW TO MID 50S EXPECTED. ALTHOUGH THESE VALUES ARE
ONLY SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE. SHOULD BE BREEZY ON TUESDAY AS
WELL...WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING AROUND 30 MPH. MODELS
DIVERGE MID WEEK...DUE TO DIFFERENCES ON STRENGTH OF OUR NEXT
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE. SO FOR NOW WILL STAY WITH CONSENSUS VALUES
FOR HIGHS...GIVING MID 50S. AT THIS TIME DOES NOT LOOK LIKE WE SEE
ANY GREAT RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHTS...WITH HIGH PRESSURE NEVER
SETTLING OVERHEAD. THUS DESPITE THE COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT...AS
OF NOW JUST GOING WITH LOWS IN THE 30S TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. NOT SEEING ANY GREAT PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH
THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS OF NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014
AVIATION WILL BE QUITE A CHALLENGE UNTIL MID MORNING. A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AT THIS TIME
HAVING PROGRESSED TO JUST EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. AREAS OF
FOG HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR THE AXIS OF THIS TROUGH...BUT IT IS
CERTAINLY NOT CONSISTENT...AND WORSE...THE THICK CIRRUS IS
OBSCURING THE FOG ON THE IR SATELLITE. CURRENT THOUGHTS ARE THAT
KHON SHOULD IMPROVE RATHER RAPIDLY AS THEIR SURFACE WINDS HAVE
GONE WESTERLY BEHIND THE TROUGH...AND IN FACT HAVE VERY RECENTLY
GONE UP TO 5SM ALREADY. SO MAY HAVE TO AMEND THEM AT 12Z TO GO A
BIT MORE OPTIMISTIC. KFSD IS PROBABLY THE MOST PROBLEMATIC
TAF...AS THE SURFACE TROUGH ENCROACHES IN ON THE SITE...FOGGY
CONDITIONS COULD GET QUITE CLOSE IN THE EARLY AND MID MORNING. SO
IT WILL NEED MONITORED CLOSELY. KSUX IS WARMING UP...HELPING TO
WIDEN THEIR SURFACE DEW POINT DEPRESSION...SO IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
FOG MAY NOT BE A SERIOUS ISSUE THERE. BUT AGAIN...THEY TOO WILL
NEED CLOSE MONITORING UNTIL MID MORNING AS THE TROUGH AXIS
APPROACHES AT THAT SITE ALSO. OTHERWISE AM EXPECTING MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS FROM MID TO LATE MORNING ONWARD...LASTING THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...CHENARD
AVIATION...MJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
258 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014
UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...CENTERED
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN PLAINS...EXTENDING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WESTERN PLAINS. THIS WILL HELP TO GIVE EXTREMELY MILD
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR TODAY...BUT LOOKS TO BE SHORT OF
RECORDS AS THEY ARE STILL IN THE 80S.
BUT FIRST...PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY HAVE TO CONTEND WITH
MORNING FOG AGAIN. THE ORGANIZED AREA OF DENSE FOG IS TO THE EAST OF
OUR FORECAST AREA...WITH SOME INDICATIONS PER THE HRRR AND RAP13
THAT THIS FOG MAY BACK INTO OUR EXTREME EASTERN ZONES AROUND SUNRISE
WHEN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW DECREASES. THEREFORE KEPT AREAS OF FOG GOING
IN THAT AREA AROUND SPENCER AND STORM LAKE IA. ELSEWHERE DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE ARE CREEPING UP...ADVECTING NORTHWARD
FROM NEB. IN ADDITION...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS MOVING SLOWLY
EASTWARD...CURRENTLY BETWEEN CHAMBERLAIN AND THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
AS IT MOVES EASTWARD...THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE
IN THE PRE DAWN HOURS ALONG THE I 29 CORRIDOR AND EAST CENTRAL SD.
SURFACE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE ALREADY GETTING SMALL IN EAST
CENTRAL SD...WHERE AGAIN THE HRRR AND RAP13 DEVELOP FOG BY
SUNRISE...THEN DRAIN SOME OF IT SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD PIPESTONE AND
LUVERNE MN ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE BUFFALO RIDGE. ACCOUNTED FOR
THIS POSSIBILITY IN THE FORECAST BY ADDING AN AREAS OF FOG MENTION
FOR OUR EAST CENTRAL SD ZONES. OTHERWISE ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT SHOULD
ABATE BY AROUND 15Z OR SLIGHTLY LATER...LEAVING SOME CIRRUS IN PLACE
FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. BUT HIGHS LOOK VERY MILD...WITH THE RAW
BIAS CORRECTED VALUES LOOKING THE BEST IN GIVING READINGS WELL INTO
THE 70S. WINDS AS THEY SHIFT TO THE WEST OR NORTHWEST WILL ALSO NOT
BECOME VERY STRONG AT ALL...SO LOOKS LIKE A VERY PLEASANT AFTERNOON.
NOT A LOT GOING ON TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. GENERALLY
LOOKING AT LOWS ABOUT 40 TO 45 UNDER LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014
STILL LOOKS LIKE A PLEASANT WEEKEND ACROSS THE REGION WITH UPPER
RIDGING BUILDING IN. TEMPERATURES ALOFT COOL A BIT BEHIND TODAYS
FRONT...BUT SHOULD STILL SEE 60S AND 70S BOTH DAYS. BASED ON LATEST
GUIDANCE...DID BUMP HIGHS UP A TAD BOTH DAYS. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
SUNDAY...AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. COULD BE ENOUGH TO GET
SOME LOW STRATUS TO DEVELOP...WHICH IF IT DOES...COULD HOLD
TEMPERATURES DOWN. SO WILL STAY CONSERVATIVE ON HIGHS SUNDAY...BUT
IF IT STAYS SUNNY WILL LIKELY END UP WARMER THAN CURRENT FORECAST.
SHOULD STAY DRY THROUGH SUNDAY...AS DESPITE SOME FORCING...MID
LEVELS REMAIN QUITE DRY. LOOKING AT LOWS IN THE 40S SATURDAY NIGHT
AND CLOSER TO 50 SUNDAY NIGHT AS WE STAY MORE MIXED.
MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON EVOLUTION OF THE TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. BEST FORCING COMES POST
FRONTAL...AND LOOKS LIKE THE TROUGH WILL STAY POSITIVELY TITLED AS IT
SWINGS ACROSS. THUS FORCING AND MOISTURE NOT ALL THAT GREAT. STILL
LOOKS LIKE WE COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...BUT
NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT. WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
COLDER TEMPERATURES MOVING IN ALOFT...MONDAY WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE
50S AND 60S...WARMEST IN NORTHWEST IOWA.
COLDER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE TROUGH...WITH TUESDAY LIKELY THE
COOLEST DAY. WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN WHAT WE HAVE BEEN
SEEING...WITH LOW TO MID 50S EXPECTED. ALTHOUGH THESE VALUES ARE
ONLY SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE. SHOULD BE BREEZY ON TUESDAY AS
WELL...WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING AROUND 30 MPH. MODELS
DIVERGE MID WEEK...DUE TO DIFFERENCES ON STRENGTH OF OUR NEXT
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE. SO FOR NOW WILL STAY WITH CONSENSUS VALUES
FOR HIGHS...GIVING MID 50S. AT THIS TIME DOES NOT LOOK LIKE WE SEE
ANY GREAT RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHTS...WITH HIGH PRESSURE NEVER
SETTLING OVERHEAD. THUS DESPITE THE COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT...AS
OF NOW JUST GOING WITH LOWS IN THE 30S TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. NOT SEEING ANY GREAT PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH
THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS OF NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1031 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014
UNCERTAINTY REMAIN IN REGARDS TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS/FOG
LATE TONIGHT AND INTO DAYBREAK. CIRRUS REMAINS RATHER THICK ACROSS
THE AREA...HOLDING TEMPERATURES UP. HOWEVER...AS BREAKS
DEVELOP...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TOWARDS THE ELEVATED CROSSOVER
TEMPERATURE IN THE 46-47 DEGREE RANGE. A WEAK SFC LOW OVER
CENTRAL SD MAY ALSO ADVECT SHALLOW BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION...AND PRIOR TO A WEAK FRONT MOVING
THROUGH AROUND DAYBREAK...POTENTIAL CONTINUES FOR FOG/STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN LOWER CONFIDENCE ON COVERAGE OF LIFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS...WILL ONLY USE A TEMPO GROUP FOR FSD.
THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT DRIER AIR SHOULD FILTER QUICKLY INTO THE
AREA AFTER DAYBREAK AND SHOULD ALLOW SKIES TO SCOUR RATHER
QUICKLY. VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS LIKELY THROUGH
FRIDAY.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...CHENARD
AVIATION...DUX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
916 PM CDT Sat Oct 25 2014
.DISCUSSION...
Satellite imagery shows another clear night over West Texas and SE
NM, w/sfc obs showing a little more return flow than 24 hours ago.
Latest NAM develops a 30+kt LLJ overnight. this, and the fact that
very little fog developed last night, fog development looks
doubtful overnight. The HRRR agrees. However, forecast soundings
suggest temps can be lowered a couple of degrees. We`ll do a quick
update for this, and adjust other parameters as necessary. Updates
out shortly.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 148 PM CDT Sat Oct 25 2014/
DISCUSSION...
Areal coverage of fog was less this morning than yesterday, with
only a couple of observation sites reporting dense fog this morning,
and satellite imagery verifying very sparse coverage overall. An
upper ridge over the region will keep well above normal temperatures
going this afternoon and Sunday. Further drying of the boundary
layer, and more pointedly the ground, in addition to the warmer
afternoon temperatures taking longer to cool to surface dewpoints
overnight will likely continue the trend of less fog the next couple
of mornings.
The next couple of days temperatures will approach, if not eclipse,
record levels as the ua ridge over the region flattens due to an ua
trough traversing the western/central ConUS. The record high
temperature for Midland International Airport is 90 degrees for
today, the 25th, but also the 26th and 27th in 2011, 1950 and 1988
respectively. Although record highs are not looking likely this
afternoon, a surface trough developing south into the area Sunday,
and the associated low level thermal ridge, could allow temps to
warm near record levels. On Monday, increasing southwesterly flow
aloft will aid and abet southwest to west downslope, surface winds,
which could also promote temperatures warming to near, or above,
record levels. The only caveat Monday will be some increase in high
clouds tempering readings a little. Southwest winds will increase
the most in the Guadalupe Mountains Monday, but at this time it does
not appear mid level winds will be strong enough for high winds
there.
A fairly significant cool down is expected Tuesday as a cold front
drops south into the region in the wake of the mentioned ua trough.
Subsequent shifts will have to monitor whether a high gap wind event
will be possible in Guadalupe Pass behind the front. High
temperatures will end up 2 to 5 degrees below normal Tuesday
afternoon, especially north of Interstate 10. In addition,
temperatures could cool into the upper 50s over southeast New Mexico
and the northern Permian Basin late Tuesday afternoon. Seasonal
temperatures will prevail areawide Wednesday before a gradual
warming trend sets in Thursday and beyond. Just how much it warms
late next week will depend on how aggressively an ua ridge builds
eastward over the region, and will likely split the difference
between more/less aggressive model offerings. As far as rain
chances, showers and thunderstorms could affect the Lower Trans
Pecos, westward into the Davis Mountains and Big Bend region Tuesday
to Thursday. Since the amplitude of the passing ua troughs are not
progged to be very deep, and the quality of moisture over the region
is not progged to be very good, will leave the extended forecast dry
for now.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 55 88 59 88 / 0 0 0 0
BIG SPRING TX 58 89 62 90 / 0 0 0 10
CARLSBAD NM 53 89 56 89 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN TX 60 87 62 89 / 0 0 10 10
FORT STOCKTON TX 59 90 61 90 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS TX 62 85 59 83 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS NM 53 87 55 85 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA TX 44 80 47 81 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 57 89 61 90 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA TX 57 88 62 89 / 0 0 0 0
WINK TX 55 90 61 90 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
12/44
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1200 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014
.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.
&&
.AVIATION...
Main concern for the night/early morning is potential for areas of
dense fog. High resolution models NAM BUFR and HRRR rh progs are
supportive of dense fog in a strip from PEQ to INK to HOB and
another area across the SE PB and Lower Trans Pecos. For now have
included 1/4-3/4SM at all but FST/CNM and mainly between 10Z-15Z.
Otherwise winds are light and of little consequence.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
1147 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014
.AVIATION...
ALTHOUGH COMPUTER MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH FOG DEVELOPING IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS FOG WILL LIKELY RETURN EARLY FRIDAY MORNING TO
BOTH TAF SITES. HOWEVER THE DEGREE OF REDUCTION IN VISBYS IS
UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE POOR CONFIDENCE IN MODELS. THE ABUNDANT AMOUNT
OF MOISTURE SUGGESTS THAT VISBYS COULD DROP TO VLIFR AGAIN BY
DAYBREAK. LOW CIGS AND VISBYS WOULD LIKELY PERSIST FOR SEVERAL
HOURS AFTER SUNRISE SIMILAR TO THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/
SHORT TERM...
UPPER RIDGING GRADUALLY SPREADING IN FROM OUR WEST WILL MAINTAIN
QUIET WEATHER OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. STILL CONTENDING WITH DAMP
SURFACE CONDITIONS...HOWEVER...WHICH WILL CREATE SOME FOG
OPPORTUNITY TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF WINDOW
FOR SHALLOW RADIATION FOG DEVELOPMENT FROM NORTH-CENTRAL INTO
CENTRAL AREAS LATER THIS EVENING INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE WEAK BUT STILL SLIGHTLY CONVERGENT. HRRR
SOLUTIONS THE PAST FEW HOURS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT SHOWING SOME
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT FOG AT LEAST...THOUGH WE DO NOT SEE INDICATIONS
IN THE LATEST RAP OR WRF/NAM RUNS. STILL...HRRR HAS DONE A VERY GOOD
JOB TODAY TO THIS POINT AND WE WILL FOLLOW ITS LEAD. LATER IN THE
NIGHT THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD VEER ACROSS NORTH-NORTHWESTERN AREAS
WITH DIVERGENT TREND AND LESS RISK OF FOG AT THAT TIME. BETTER FOG
SIGNAL LATER TONIGHT RUNS FROM THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE
ROLLING PLAINS...AND MAINLY THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS WHERE WE
HAVE INDICATED AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. THIS WOULD HOLD BIGGEST RISK FOR SIGNIFICANT RESTRICTIONS
AS WELL AND HAVE INDICATED SUCH IN THE HAZARDOUS OUTLOOK. OTHERWISE
STRATUS BY MID TO LATE MORNING FRIDAY SHOULD BE GONE OR DISSOLVING
RAPIDLY AND A WARM DAY WILL LEAD INTO THE WEEKEND WITH LITTLE
DISAGREEMENT FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS. RMCQUEEN
LONG TERM...
UPPER RIDGING WILL KICK OFF THE EXTENDED AND PROVIDE A PERIOD OF
WARM AND DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RUN 10-15 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 80S THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
FEW LOWER 90S COULD EVEN MIX IN OFF THE CAPROCK. BREEZY SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL MATERIALIZE BY LATE WEEKEND AS A LARGE
WESTERN TROUGH BEGINS TO MAKE EASTWARD PROGRESS AND SURFACE
TROUGHING DEEPENS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. MONDAY WILL BRING
ANOTHER WARM DAY AS BREEZY DOWNSLOPING WINDS CONTINUE...BUT THE
APPROACHING MEAN WESTERN TROUGH WILL PROVIDE MODEST DEEP LAYER
COOLING WHICH SHOULD KNOCK SEVERAL DEGREES OFF THE HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON THE CAPROCK. AN INITIAL TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST TO PASS MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIKELY TRACKING OUT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SHORTWAVE...BUT IT CURRENTLY
APPEARS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE TOO LIMITED TO SUPPORT ANY
MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION CHANCES...THOUGH A ROGUE SPRINKLE OR VIRGA
SHOWER MAY BE POSSIBLE. THE ONE EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN ZONES...WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE MAY BE CLOSER BY...BUT EVEN
HERE THE PROSPECTS FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION DOES NOT LOOK VERY
GOOD AND WE HAVE MAINTAINED POPS NEAR 10 PERCENT.
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW THE INITIAL TROUGH PASSAGE AND USHER IN
AN AIR MASS OF PACIFIC ORIGIN MONDAY NIGHT. MORE SEASONABLE LATE
OCTOBER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
SETTING THE STAGE FOR MORE PLEASANT FALL WEATHER WITH MILD DAYS AND
COOL NIGHTS. ANOTHER PASSING UPPER LEVEL WAVE COULD SUPPLY A SECOND
WEAK COLD FRONT BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY...KEEPING
TEMPERATURES NEAR LATE OCTOBER NORMALS. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE
MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 51 84 50 84 50 / 0 0 0 0 0
TULIA 53 85 52 86 53 / 0 0 0 0 0
PLAINVIEW 54 84 53 85 53 / 0 0 0 0 0
LEVELLAND 55 84 51 84 51 / 0 0 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 55 84 55 85 55 / 0 0 0 0 0
DENVER CITY 56 83 52 83 52 / 0 0 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 56 84 52 83 53 / 0 0 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 59 89 57 92 56 / 0 0 0 0 0
SPUR 58 86 55 86 54 / 0 0 0 0 0
ASPERMONT 59 86 57 88 56 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
01
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
616 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014
THE LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A LOW LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING. BEHIND
THE TROUGH...RUC SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A LOWERING INVERSION WITH PLENTY
OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THIS INVERSION.
WIDESPREAD STRATUS AND FOG ARE SHOWING NO SIGNS OF BREAKING UP...AND
ARE EXPANDING WESTWARD INTO MINNESOTA. CURRENT VSBYS ARE LOCALLY
DENSE OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN...BUT MOST OF THE
VSBYS IN THIS AREA ARE BETWEEN 1/2 AND 1 1/2 SM. VSBYS FARTHER EAST
ARE BEHAVING BUT SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOWERING AS TEMPS CONTINUE TO
COOL TONIGHT. IN GENERAL THOUGH...VSBYS SEEM TO BE SLOWLY FALLING
SO WILL CONTINUE THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY EVEN THOUGH CRITERIA IS
TECHNICALLY NOT BEING MET. LOOKING UPSTREAM...A LARGE AREA OF
CIRRUS IS PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A
WEAK TROUGH IS POSITIONED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BUT IS INACTIVE AT
THE MOMENT. FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE FOG TRENDS FOLLOWED BY
CLOUDS/TEMPS.
TODAY...THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST INTO
MICHIGAN THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE...WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS AND FOG
WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH THE MORNING COMMUTE. CIRRUS...BROUGHT IN
BY A BEEFY 120KT JET STREAK WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING...AND LIKELY SLOW THE DISSIPATION OF THE STRATUS/FOG
DESPITE ITS SHALLOW NATURE. THINKING IT MAY TAKE UNTIL EARLY
AFTERNOON FOR THE STRATUS/FOG TO MIX OUT OVER CENTRAL AND
NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN WHERE CIRRUS WILL BE THICKER THAN FARTHER
EAST. ONCE IT BURNS OFF THOUGH...SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF FILTERED
SUNSHINE THROUGH THE CIRRUS. THERE WILL BE A WEAK LOW LEVEL TROUGH
THAT WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH
WILL BRING SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND 5KFT. SATURATION DEPTH IS VERY
SHALLOW...SO THINK THERE IS LITTLE CHANCE OF PRECIP. MIXING HEIGHTS
LOOK SHALLOW ONCE AGAIN SO USED A COMBO OF THE ECMWF AND CONS BLENDS
WHICH DROPPED HIGHS A DEGREE.
TONIGHT...THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN THIS EVENING. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SCT CLOUDS
WITH THIS TROUGH BUT THEN SHOULD SEE CLEARING ONCE THE TROUGH EXITS
OVERNIGHT. PROGGED SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT MOISTURE WILL AGAIN GET
TRAPPED BENEATH THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. BUT UNLIKE THIS
MORNING...WILL HAVE A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE. THIS WILL
MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP BUT COULD LEAD TO THE
GENERATION OF A LOW STRATUS DECK. CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW IF THIS
WILL OCCUR AND WILL PASS CONCERNS ON TO THE NEXT SHIFT. LOWS MAINLY
IN THE 40S.
SATURDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE LAKE SUPERIOR WILL
SEND A COOL FRONT ACROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE PERIOD. WEAK COLD
ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE THE ENTIRE DAY BUT SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
FROM THE WEST WHERE THE AIR IS STILL RELATIVELY MILD. THOUGH IT
WILL BE WINDY...TEMPS SHOULD STILL RISE INTO THE MID 50S NORTH TO
LOW 60S SOUTH WITH SUNNY SKIES.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014
MAIN FCST CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE THE SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
BEGINNING OF THIS FCST PERIOD LOOKS FAIRLY STRAIGHT FORWARD.
MODELS CONSISTENT IN SHOWING AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVER
THE STATE...WITH CLEAR SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES. DECREASED MIN
TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO AS MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARDS LOWER
TEMPS...AND CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHTER WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY DROP.
CONTINUED QUIET WEATHER ON SUNDAY QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL PUT THE AREA IN SOUTHERLY FLOW...WHICH
MEANS WARMING TEMPERATURES BUT INCREASING CLOUDS. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES HIGH TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...WITH
SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS WAA RAMPS UP
AND MOISTURE INCREASES. STILL SHOULD BE A NICE DAY.
THINGS START BECOMING MORE ACTIVE BEGINNING SUNDAY EVENING. A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA AFTER 00Z MONDAY...WHICH WILL
BRING PCPN TO THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. KEPT
THE GENERAL CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AS MODELS DISAGREE
WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND MODELS HAVE GENERAL LIGHT PCPN
OVERSPREADING THE AREA...WITH THE HEAVIEST QPF ARRIVING AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
MODELS BEGIN TO DISAGREE AFTER THAT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THEN INTENSIFIES OVER THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES REGION. GENERAL MODEL TRENDS WOULD HAVE SPOTTY LIGHT
PCPN CONTINUING ON MONDAY BEFORE THE SYSTEM STRENGTHENS IN
RESPONSE TO A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWEEPING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN CONUS. AFTER THE DAY ON MONDAY...MODELS HAVING
DIFFICULTIES WITH THE EXACT TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM.
LEANED TOWARDS THE ECMWF FOR THIS FCST AS IT SEEMED TO BE A GOOD
COMPROMISE BETWEEN ALL THE MODELS. IN ADDITION... THE 00Z ECMWF
PICKED UP ON THE FASTER MODEL TRENDS THAT HAVE BEEN NOTED ON MANY
OF THE OTHER MODELS. EITHER WAY...PCPN SHOULD INTENSIFY STARTING
MONDAY NIGHT AS FORCING INCREASES. IN ADDITION...KEPT THE
ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE FCST AS SOME ELEVATED CAPE IS NOTED ON THE
GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...AND THEN RAPID
INTENSIFICATION SHOULD RESULT IN SOME THUNDER MONDAY NIGHT.
RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE ON TUESDAY BEFORE THE LOW FINALLY IS SWEPT
AWAY WITH THE EXITING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE REST
OF THE FORECAST LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY AS A SURFACE
RIDGE AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MAKE THEIR WAY INTO THE REGION.
EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 TO 10F WARMER THAN NORMAL
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN BACK TO NEAR NORMAL HIGHS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 616 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014
WIDESPREAD LOW CIGS AND FOG WILL BE SLOW TO BURN OFF THIS MORNING AS
A RESULT OF CIRRUS SLOWING DOWN THE DIURNAL WARMING CURVE. BUT
ANTICIPATE SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER AROUND 15Z TO POSSIBLY
VFR BY MIDDAY. SOME CONCERN THAT BKN MVFR CIGS COULD LINGER UNTIL
MID-AFTERNOON THOUGH. A WEAK LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING AN AREA OF
3-5KFT CLOUDS TO THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
THEN ONCE THIS TROUGH DEPARTS...MODELS ARE SUGGESTING LOW STRATUS
AND/OR FOG COULD REFORM LATE TONIGHT. THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE
MORE MIXY SO THINK THAT THE PROBABILITY OF DENSE FOG IS LOW...BUT
THE FORMATION OF LOW STRATUS IS A BETTER BET. WILL LET THE NEXT
SHIFT ANALYZE FURTHER BEFORE ADDING IFR CIGS.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ005-010-
018-030-035-036-045.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......ALLEN
AVIATION.......MPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
325 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 244 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014
FOG AND CLOUDS THE INITIAL CONCERN TODAY...THEN SMALL RAIN
CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 07Z NEPHANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE FOG ENHANCEMENT IMAGERY SHOWING EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUD
AND DENSE FOG SHROUDING THE FORECAST AREA. THIS THANKS TO THE
RAIN AND CLOUD COVER YESTERDAY. MEANWHILE A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WAS APPROACHING FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS WHICH WILL PASS THIS
AFTERNOON. WARM ADVECTION AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT SUGGESTED BY
MODELS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH SEVERAL OF THE SHORT TERM
MESOSCALE MODEL SOLUTIONS PAINTING SOME VERY LIGHT QPF ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA. PLENTY OF CHALLENGES TO CONTEND WITH.
FIRST...LOCAL STUDIES AND USE OF GOES-R CLOUD THICKNESS PRODUCT
SUGGEST THAT THE LOW CLOUD WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT TO MIX OUT.
COMBINE THAT WITH THE ADDED WARM ADVECTION AND MOISTURE
TRANSPORT...AS WELL AS MORE CLOUD COVER ALOFT TO LIMIT THE INFLUX
OF SUNSHINE TO HELP MIX AND ERODE THE BOUNDARY LAYER INVERSION...
OUR FEELING IS THAT THE AREA WILL STAY CLOUDY THROUGH THE DAY. DO
ANTICIPATE THAT THE DENSE FOG WILL LIFT...BUT WE MAY NEED TO
EXTEND THE ADVISORY BEYOND THE 10 AM EXPIRATION TIME IN SOME
AREAS.
WITH SHORT WAVE APPROACHING...WEAK Q-G SIGNAL SEEN IN THE LOWER
LAYERS. WHILE THE FORCING IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED...THERE IS ENOUGH
THAT WARRANTS INCLUSION OF LOW CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...MAINLY SOUTH OF I-90. THANKS
FOR THE COORDINATION MKX/DVN/DMX.
FOR TONIGHT...DO ANTICIPATE SOME CLEARING...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION REMAINS IN PLACE. FEEL THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR SOME AREAS OF FOG AGAIN. COULD BE SOME PATCHY AREAS
OF DENSE FOG...BUT DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN AT THIS TIME. WILL ALLOW
DAY SHIFT TO GET A BETTER GRASP ON POTENTIAL BASED ON WHAT
TRANSPIRES WITH RESPECT TO CLOUD/FOG/RAIN TODAY.
TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO BE SURPRESSED TODAY THANKS TO ALL OF THE
ABOVE...SO HAVE UNDERCUT PREVIOUS FORECAST AND EVEN GUIDANCE.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON SATURDAY...AND WILL BE CENTERED
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD SUNDAY MORNING. THUS A DRY AND MAINLY CLEAR
PERIOD IS ANTICIPATED. SOUTHERLY WINDS CRANK UP ON SUNDAY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT LONG WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM SASK/MT REGION.
WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH WILL
LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF CLOUD AND SOME SHOWERS. SOME QUESTION
ON HOW QUICKLY THE DEEPER SATURATION WILL TAKE PLACE FOR SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY NIGHT. BEST CHANCES DO APPEAR TO LIE ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR...BUT SPREAD OUT THE RAIN CHANCES TO
ACCOUNT FOR POSSIBLE EARLIER SATURATION. BRIEF DRY PERIOD AS
THE MAIN WARM ADVECTION WING MOVES NORTH. BUT THE COLD FRONT WILL
FOLLOW MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN LIKELY TO BE
MONDAY NIGHT...AND EVEN SOME SUPPORT FOR THUNDER. TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO BE QUITE MILD...ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY.
MAIN TROUGH PASSES ON TUESDAY...WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND COLD
ADVECTION LEADING TO POTENTIAL FOR MORE LIGHT SHOWERS. HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD PROVIDE FOR MAINLY DRY AND TRANQUIL WEATHER FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014
THE FOG HAS SETTLED IN AT BOTH TAF SITES WITH IFR CONDITIONS. THE
VISIBILITY HAS YET TO COME DOWN TO IFR AT KLSE AS THE VALLEY SEEMS
TO BE PROTECTING IT SOME...AS IT IS AT OTHER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY AIRPORTS. HOWEVER...BELIEVE THIS IS ONLY TEMPORARY AND WILL
CONTINUE THE TREND OF BRINGING THE VISIBILITY DOWN TO 1/4SM FOR
THE OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE TREND IN THE RAP THIS
EVENING HAS NOT BEEN AS QUICK TO DISSIPATE THE FOG AS THE
AFTERNOON RUNS SO HAVE HELD ON TO THE LOW VISIBILITIES THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE MORNING WITH THE LOW CEILINGS DISSIPATING DURING THE
LAST HALF OF THE MORNING. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A MID LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH COMING ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH
MIXED SIGNALS WHETHER THIS WILL PRODUCE A MVFR CEILING OR NOT. THE
24.00Z NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AND HAS MVFR
CEILINGS DEVELOPING EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THE 24.02Z RAP AND
24.00Z GFS HAVE ALSO TRENDED THIS WAY WHILE THE 23.21Z SREF MEAN
REMAINS DRIER. MIXED SIGNALS IN THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE AS WELL
WITH THE GFS BASED MOS AND LAMP GUIDANCE NOT SHOWING ANYTHING FOR
THE AFTERNOON WHILE THE NAM BASED MOS HAS THE MVFR CEILINGS. FOR
NOW...WILL CONTINUE WITH JUST SHOWING SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS AS
CONFIDENCE IN THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM REMAINS LOW.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ017-029-
032>034-041>044-053>055-061.
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ079-
086>088-094>096.
IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR IAZ008>011-
018-019-029-030.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...04
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014
THE LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A LOW LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING. BEHIND
THE TROUGH...RUC SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A LOWERING INVERSION WITH PLENTY
OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THIS INVERSION.
WIDESPREAD STRATUS AND FOG ARE SHOWING NO SIGNS OF BREAKING UP...AND
ARE EXPANDING WESTWARD INTO MINNESOTA. CURRENT VSBYS ARE LOCALLY
DENSE OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN...BUT MOST OF THE
VSBYS IN THIS AREA ARE BETWEEN 1/2 AND 1 1/2 SM. VSBYS FARTHER EAST
ARE BEHAVING BUT SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOWERING AS TEMPS CONTINUE TO
COOL TONIGHT. IN GENERAL THOUGH...VSBYS SEEM TO BE SLOWLY FALLING
SO WILL CONTINUE THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY EVEN THOUGH CRITERIA IS
TECHNICALLY NOT BEING MET. LOOKING UPSTREAM...A LARGE AREA OF
CIRRUS IS PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A
WEAK TROUGH IS POSITIONED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BUT IS INACTIVE AT
THE MOMENT. FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE FOG TRENDS FOLLOWED BY
CLOUDS/TEMPS.
TODAY...THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST INTO
MICHIGAN THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE...WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS AND FOG
WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH THE MORNING COMMUTE. CIRRUS...BROUGHT IN
BY A BEEFY 120KT JET STREAK WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING...AND LIKELY SLOW THE DISSIPATION OF THE STRATUS/FOG
DESPITE ITS SHALLOW NATURE. THINKING IT MAY TAKE UNTIL EARLY
AFTERNOON FOR THE STRATUS/FOG TO MIX OUT OVER CENTRAL AND
NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN WHERE CIRRUS WILL BE THICKER THAN FARTHER
EAST. ONCE IT BURNS OFF THOUGH...SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF FILTERED
SUNSHINE THROUGH THE CIRRUS. THERE WILL BE A WEAK LOW LEVEL TROUGH
THAT WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH
WILL BRING SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND 5KFT. SATURATION DEPTH IS VERY
SHALLOW...SO THINK THERE IS LITTLE CHANCE OF PRECIP. MIXING HEIGHTS
LOOK SHALLOW ONCE AGAIN SO USED A COMBO OF THE ECMWF AND CONS BLENDS
WHICH DROPPED HIGHS A DEGREE.
TONIGHT...THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN THIS EVENING. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SCT CLOUDS
WITH THIS TROUGH BUT THEN SHOULD SEE CLEARING ONCE THE TROUGH EXITS
OVERNIGHT. PROGGED SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT MOISTURE WILL AGAIN GET
TRAPPED BENEATH THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. BUT UNLIKE THIS
MORNING...WILL HAVE A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE. THIS WILL
MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP BUT COULD LEAD TO THE
GENERATION OF A LOW STRATUS DECK. CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW IF THIS
WILL OCCUR AND WILL PASS CONCERNS ON TO THE NEXT SHIFT. LOWS MAINLY
IN THE 40S.
SATURDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE LAKE SUPERIOR WILL
SEND A COOL FRONT ACROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE PERIOD. WEAK COLD
ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE THE ENTIRE DAY BUT SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
FROM THE WEST WHERE THE AIR IS STILL RELATIVELY MILD. THOUGH IT
WILL BE WINDY...TEMPS SHOULD STILL RISE INTO THE MID 50S NORTH TO
LOW 60S SOUTH WITH SUNNY SKIES.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014
MAIN FCST CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE THE SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
BEGINNING OF THIS FCST PERIOD LOOKS FAIRLY STRAIGHT FORWARD.
MODELS CONSISTENT IN SHOWING AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVER
THE STATE...WITH CLEAR SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES. DECREASED MIN
TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO AS MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARDS LOWER
TEMPS...AND CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHTER WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY DROP.
CONTINUED QUIET WEATHER ON SUNDAY QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL PUT THE AREA IN SOUTHERLY FLOW...WHICH
MEANS WARMING TEMPERATURES BUT INCREASING CLOUDS. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES HIGH TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...WITH
SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS WAA RAMPS UP
AND MOISTURE INCREASES. STILL SHOULD BE A NICE DAY.
THINGS START BECOMING MORE ACTIVE BEGINNING SUNDAY EVENING. A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA AFTER 00Z MONDAY...WHICH WILL
BRING PCPN TO THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. KEPT
THE GENERAL CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AS MODELS DISAGREE
WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND MODELS HAVE GENERAL LIGHT PCPN
OVERSPREADING THE AREA...WITH THE HEAVIEST QPF ARRIVING AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
MODELS BEGIN TO DISAGREE AFTER THAT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THEN INTENSIFIES OVER THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES REGION. GENERAL MODEL TRENDS WOULD HAVE SPOTTY LIGHT
PCPN CONTINUING ON MONDAY BEFORE THE SYSTEM STRENGTHENS IN
RESPONSE TO A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWEEPING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN CONUS. AFTER THE DAY ON MONDAY...MODELS HAVING
DIFFICULTIES WITH THE EXACT TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM.
LEANED TOWARDS THE ECMWF FOR THIS FCST AS IT SEEMED TO BE A GOOD
COMPROMISE BETWEEN ALL THE MODELS. IN ADDITION... THE 00Z ECMWF
PICKED UP ON THE FASTER MODEL TRENDS THAT HAVE BEEN NOTED ON MANY
OF THE OTHER MODELS. EITHER WAY...PCPN SHOULD INTENSIFY STARTING
MONDAY NIGHT AS FORCING INCREASES. IN ADDITION...KEPT THE
ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE FCST AS SOME ELEVATED CAPE IS NOTED ON THE
GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...AND THEN RAPID
INTENSIFICATION SHOULD RESULT IN SOME THUNDER MONDAY NIGHT.
RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE ON TUESDAY BEFORE THE LOW FINALLY IS SWEPT
AWAY WITH THE EXITING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE REST
OF THE FORECAST LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY AS A SURFACE
RIDGE AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MAKE THEIR WAY INTO THE REGION.
EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 TO 10F WARMER THAN NORMAL
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN BACK TO NEAR NORMAL HIGHS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1009 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014
LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AS
RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA.
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG WITH VSBYS 1/4 MILE OR LESS WILL IMPACT
MAINLY CENTRAL AND NORTHCENTRAL WISCONSIN WITH MORE PATCHY DENSE
FOG ELSEWHERE.
CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 15Z FRIDAY.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ005-010-
018-030-035-036-045.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......ALLEN
AVIATION.......ESB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1139 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 922 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014
THE FOG CONTINUES TO EXPAND ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH SOME
LOCATIONS ALREADY REPORTING DENSE FOG. EXPECT THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE WITH WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG POSSIBLE BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
THUS...PLAN TO MOVE THE START TIME OF THE ADVISORY UP TO THE
CURRENT TIME. SHOULD BE SLOW GOING FRIDAY MORNING COMMUTE WITH
VISIBILITIES OF A QUARTER MILE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...FOG LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRI
MORNING...TEMPERATURES/CLOUDS THRU THE PERIOD.
DATA ANALYSIS AT 18Z HAD THE BAND OF SHRA CONTINUING TO MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE WEST EDGE NEAR A KMDZ-KVOK-KOVS LINE. WV
IMAGERY SHOWED THE RATHER VIGOROUS MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE/TROUGH MOVING
STEADILY EAST ACROSS THE REGION. VIS IMAGERY SHOWED THE CLEARING
BEHIND THE TROUGH WAS SLOWER TO MOVE EAST...WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE/
IFR CLOUD DECKS TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION NEAR 900MB. EARLY
AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 40S IN THE SHRA OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN
WI...TO THE UPPER 50S-MID 60S IN THE SUNSHINE OVER SOUTHWEST MN.
23.12Z MODELS INITIALIZED WELL...EVEN GFS WITH ITS SFC DEWPOINTS
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/NORTHERN PLAINS. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH QUICKLY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND
SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN. CONSISTENT SIGNAL FOR A WEAK SHORTWAVE
FROM THE WEST TO WORK THRU THE SHORTWAVE RIDGING ACROSS REGION LATE
TONIGHT/FRI MORNING. MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT ON A SHORTWAVE/TOUGH
TO DROP TOWARD/ACROSS LK SUPERIOR FRI NIGHT. TREND FOR TONIGHT THRU
FRI NIGHT GENERALLY FAVORS A COMPROMISE OF THE EARLIER RUNS. SHORT
TERM FCST CONFIDENCE IS GOOD THIS CYCLE.
IN THE SHORT TERM...POST TROUGH DECREASE OF CLOUDS/CLEARING EXPECTED
TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE RIDGING/RISING HGTS
BUILD IN. RAIN/CLOUDS TODAY KEEPING T/TD SPREADS ON THE LOW SIDE
OVER THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS PLUS THE DECREASE OF CLOUDS
TONIGHT AND GRADIENT WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT ACROSS MOST OF
THE FCST AREA SETS THE STAGE FOR AREAS TO WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG
LATER TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. CONTINUED STRONG SIGNAL AMONG SREF
MEMBERS FOR VSBYS BELOW 1SM OVER THE EAST 2/3 OF THE FCST AREA
CENTERED ON 12Z FRI MORNING. BASED ON WHAT HAPPENED WITH DENSE FOG
ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL MN...EASTERN SD/NEB...WESTERN IA THIS MORNING...
UPON COORD WITH NEIGHBORS WILL ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE
ENTIRE FCST AREA FROM 06Z-15Z FRI.
MODEST ROUND OF LOWER LEVEL WARM ADVECTION/MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD
OF A SFC-700MB TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA FRI. THE MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FRI MORNING WHILE THE MAIN 925-
850MB MOISTURE INCREASE SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA FRI AFTERNOON/
EVENING. NAM INSISTS ON PRODUCING SOME LIGHT QPF ACROSS THE
SOUTH/WEST PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING BUT
THIS LOOKS OVERDONE DUE TO 1/ THE SHALLOWNESS OF THE MOISTURE 2/
MOISTURE IS UNDER AN INVERSION NEAR 850MB AND 3/ THE SHORTWAVE IS
WELL SOUTH/EAST OF THE AREA BY 00Z SAT. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
PATCHY -DZ BUT MOISTURE LOOKS EVEN TOO SHALLOW FOR THIS AND LEFT
FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING DRY. SOME INCREASE OF LOWER STRATO-CU CLOUDS
EXPECTED FOR FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING...IMPACTING TEMPERATURES. MIXED
925MB TEMPS FRI AFTERNOON WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID 60S-LOW
70S...BUT WITH POTENTIAL FOR THE LOWER AFTERNOON CLOUDS WILL LEAVE
FRI HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 60S. LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES
FRI EVENING...AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH/COLD FRONT WITH THE
LK SUPERIOR SHORTWAVE. 925MB TEMPS PEAK IN THE +13C TO +18C RANGE
AROUND 06Z SAT WITH THE STRONGER LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION ARRIVING
AROUND 12Z SAT. FRONT COMES THRU DRY FRI NIGHT AS 925-700MB LAYER
IS DRY. GIVEN BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS FOR MIXING FRI NIGHT BOTH AHEAD
OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT...FRI NIGHT LOWS CONTINUE TO LOOK QUITE
MILD FOR LATE OCT. USED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE LOWS/HIGHS FOR
TONIGHT THRU SAT NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOR SATURDAY THRU SUNDAY NIGHT...SHRA/TSRA
CHANCES SUN NIGHT...TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD.
23.12Z MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SAT THRU SUN AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PASSES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES EARLY SAT THEN HGTS OVER THE
REGION SLOWLY RISE LATER SAT THRU SUN. GOOD MODEL CONSISTENCY FOR
THE LONGWAVE RIDGE AXIS TO BE NEAR THE MS RIVER AT 00Z MON AND
LONGWAVE TROUGHING TO BE OVER THE ROCKIES. TREND AT 00Z MON FAVORS
SLOWER OF THE EARLIER MODEL RUNS. RIDGE AXIS QUICKLY MOVES EAST
SUN NIGHT WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BY 12Z MON AS THE
ROCKIES TROUGH BEGINS TO EJECT INTO THE PLAINS. FCST CONFIDENCE
FOR SAT THRU SUN NIGHT IS ON THE GOOD SIDE.
SAT THRU SUN DOMINATED BY CAN SFC HIGH PRESSURE. DRY NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA SAT/SAT NIGHT. LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
CONTINUES SAT BUT 925MB TEMPS IN +9C TO +13C AT 00Z SUN. UNDER
SUNNY SKIES...SAT HIGHS STILL LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S-MID 60S
EVEN WITH THE COLD ADVECTION. 925MB WINDS IN THE 25KT RANGE SAT
WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING MIXING TO 900MB SAT AFTERNOON...FOR
BRISK/BREEZY/GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. SFC RIDGE AXIS SLIDES ACROSS
THE AREA SAT NIGHT. WINDS DECOUPLE AND UNDER CLEAR SKIES STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING/LARGE DIURNAL SWING EXPECTED SAT NIGHT. SFC-
850MB RIDGE AXIS QUICKLY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA SUN WITH A RETURN
OF SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH LOW LEVEL FLOW/WARM ADVECTION. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN BEGINS TO SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST END OF THE
FCST AREA LATE SUN. INITIALLY A VERY DRY SFC-500MB AIRMASS TO
MOISTEN UP. THE MOISTURE/THETA-E AXIS AND STRONGER LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION REMAIN WEST/SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA THRU 00Z MON. LEFT
SUNDAY DRY FOR NOW BUT MAY YET NEED A SMALL -SHRA CHANCE ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST END OF THE FCST AREA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. LEAD
ROUND OF STRONGER/DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT/THETA-E
CONVERGENCE AND WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE PLAINS TROUGH/LOW
SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA SUN NIGHT. IMPROVING CONSENSUS FOR A WARM
FRONT AHEAD OF THE LOW IN THE PLAINS TO BE LIFTING ACROSS IA SUN
NIGHT...PROVIDING AN ADDED FOCUS/ISENTROPIC LIFTING MECHANISM
NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY. 250-500+ J/KG OF MUCAPE PROGGED IN THE
AIRMASS BEING LIFTED OVER THE WARM FRONT SUN NIGHT. CONSENSUS RAIN
CHANCES IN THE 20-50 PERCENT RANGE LOOK GOOD SUN NIGHT...AND
CONTINUED THE MENTION OF TSRA. GENERALLY STAYED WITH A BLEND OF
THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HIGHS/LOWS FOR SAT THRU SUN NIGHT.
FOR MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.../DAYS 4 TO 7/...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES MON/MON
NIGHT...SHRA CHANCES TUE/TUE NIGHT...TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD.
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS OF 23.00Z/23.12Z IN GOOD AGREEMENT MON AS
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PLAINS. REASONABLE AGREEMENT
AMONG MODELS TUE AS THE TROUGH/MAIN ENERGY LIFTS INTO THE MID/UPPER
MS VALLEY. TREND MON/TUE FAVORS A COMPROMISE OF THE EARLIER RUNS ON
TIMING/STRENGTH OF THIS TROUGH. RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN
ECMWF/GFS ON WED WITH BROAD TROUGHING OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL/EASTERN
NOAM AND SOME FORM OF RIDGING OVER THE US/CAN ROCKIES. DIFFERENCES
BY THU...MAINLY WITH PROGRESSIVENESS OF A NORTHWEST FLOW SHORTWAVE
INTO THE REGION...WHICH IS NOT UNUSUAL AT DAY 7. 23.12Z ECMWF/GFS IN
BETTER AGREEMENT THU THAN THEIR 23.00Z RUNS WERE. ECMWF OFFERS THE
BETTER RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY WED/THU. FCST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE TO
GOOD MON-WED THEN AVERAGE ON THU.
MOIST AIRMASS WITH UP TO 250-500 J/KG MUCAPE PROGGED OVER THE AREA
MON/MON NIGHT. THIS AHEAD THE SFC-MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
PLAINS AND LIFTING TOWARD THE REGION. PLENTY OF DETAIL DIFFERENCES
WITH THE STRENGTH/LOCATION OF THE SFC LOW/STRONGER FORCING LIFTING
TOWARD/ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AT THE DAY 4 TIME-FRAME BUT THE 20-
50 PERCENT SHRA/TSRA CHANCES PER THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS QUITE
REASONABLE FOR NOW. BY TUE THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE SFC-700MB LOW
AND MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTING ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A
DEFORMATION BAND OF MOISTURE/FORCING TO ROTATE ACROSS THE AREA.
AGAIN PLENTY OF DETAIL DIFFERENCES OUT IN DAY 5 BUT 25-50 PERCENT
SHRA CHANCES PER THE CONSENSUS GOOD AT THIS TIME. SFC THRU MID LEVEL
SYSTEM TO LIFT OUT TUE NIGHT...WITH DIMINISHING -SHRA CHANCES.
COOLER AIRMASS/WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN ITS
WAKE FOR WHAT SHOULD BE A DRY DAY WED. TIMING DIFFERENCES BY THU
IMPACT POTENTIAL -SHRA CHANCES SPREADING BACK INTO THE FCST AREA.
GIVEN LESSER CONFIDENCE OUT ON DAY 7...STAYED WITH THE MODEL/
ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS. GIVEN ALL THE LOWER LEVEL DETAIL DIFFERENCES IN
DAYS 4-7...THE BLEND OF THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HIGHS/LOWS
FOR MON-THU LOOK WELL TRENDED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014
THE FOG HAS SETTLED IN AT BOTH TAF SITES WITH IFR CONDITIONS. THE
VISIBILITY HAS YET TO COME DOWN TO IFR AT KLSE AS THE VALLEY SEEMS
TO BE PROTECTING IT SOME...AS IT IS AT OTHER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY AIRPORTS. HOWEVER...BELIEVE THIS IS ONLY TEMPORARY AND WILL
CONTINUE THE TREND OF BRINGING THE VISIBILITY DOWN TO 1/4SM FOR
THE OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE TREND IN THE RAP THIS
EVENING HAS NOT BEEN AS QUICK TO DISSIPATE THE FOG AS THE
AFTERNOON RUNS SO HAVE HELD ON TO THE LOW VISIBILITIES THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE MORNING WITH THE LOW CEILINGS DISSIPATING DURING THE
LAST HALF OF THE MORNING. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A MID LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH COMING ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH
MIXED SIGNALS WHETHER THIS WILL PRODUCE A MVFR CEILING OR NOT. THE
24.00Z NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AND HAS MVFR
CEILINGS DEVELOPING EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THE 24.02Z RAP AND
24.00Z GFS HAVE ALSO TRENDED THIS WAY WHILE THE 23.21Z SREF MEAN
REMAINS DRIER. MIXED SIGNALS IN THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE AS WELL
WITH THE GFS BASED MOS AND LAMP GUIDANCE NOT SHOWING ANYTHING FOR
THE AFTERNOON WHILE THE NAM BASED MOS HAS THE MVFR CEILINGS. FOR
NOW...WILL CONTINUE WITH JUST SHOWING SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS AS
CONFIDENCE IN THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM REMAINS LOW.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR WIZ017-029-032>034-
041>044-053>055-061.
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR MNZ079-086>088-
094>096.
IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR IAZ008>011-018-019-
029-030.
&&
$$
UPDATE...04
SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1059 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014
DRY AND MILD WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST ALL OF THE
SHORT TERM (TNGT THRU SAT MRNG). THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO
SLOWLY BUILDING HEIGHTS AND A DOMINANT LARGE-SCALE RIDGE ACROSS
THE CNTRL CONUS. THE MAIN ITEMS OF INTEREST WILL BE GUSTY
SOUTHWEST-WEST WINDS AND RELATIVELY WARM WEATHER.
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGES AND RAP MODEL ANALYSES INDICATED A
150-KT 300-MB JET CROSSING OVER THE PACIFIC NW WITH CONSIDERABLE
MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF THE NWRN CONUS. ALTHOUGH A
THICK PATCH OF CIRRUS MOVED ACROSS THE CWA EARLIER TODAY...THE WATER
VAPOR TRAJECTORY SUGGESTS THE BULK OF THE CIRRUS WILL REMAIN NW OF
THE CWA...ESPECIALLY LATE TNGT AND FRI AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS.
UNTIL THEN...EXPECT SOME PERIODIC DENSE CIRRUS PATCHES AS THE JET
INTERACTS WITH THE MOUNTAINS. BUFKIT TIME-SECTIONS FOR KCYS SUPPORT
THIS AS WELL.
GUSTY SOUTHWEST-WINDS WILL OCCUR ESPECIALLY NEAR RIDGE TOPS TNGT AS
700-MB FLOW IS 30-45 KT FROM THE WEST WITH WEAK COLD-ADVECTION THAT
WILL PROMOTE MIXING. LOOKS TO BE JUST BELOW HIGH WIND WRNG CRITERIA
BUT IT DOES BEAR WATCHING. ALTHOUGH GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO
FRIDAY THEY SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT MUTED AS 700-MB WIND SPEEDS DECREASE
BY 5-10 KT AND THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS.
GIVEN THE UPPER RIDGE AND 700-MB TEMPS OF 7-10C ACROSS THE CWA THE
TEMPS WILL BE 15-20F ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM...AND
APPROACHING RECORD LEVELS ON FRIDAY. THE RH ALSO WILL DROP TO NEAR
15 PERCENT ACROSS THE SERN WY PLAINS ON FRI AFTN. FRI NGT WILL AGAIN
BE QUITE MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014
UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY AS
RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST OF THE CWA DURING THE DAY. HIGHS WILL
BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA DURING THE DAY.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE
SHIFTS FURTHER EAST...ALLOWING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD
FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON
SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR AND WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE...WITH CHANCES SPREADING OVER THE REST OF THE CWA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AS COLDER AIR PUSHES IN SUNDAY NIGHT...SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY OVER AT
LEAST THE SOUTH CENTRAL WY MOUNTAINS.
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A WARMUP POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK.
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014
AVIATION IMPACTS WILL BE MINIMAL THROUGH THE UPCOMING PERIOD WITH
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING. THERE WILL BE A SCT-BKN200 CLOUD LAYER
MOVING OVERHEAD TONIGHT...BUT THIS TOO SHOULD LESSEN BY MIDDAY
FRIDAY. WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING
AIRFIELDS 15-16Z ON FRIDAY WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 KNOTS EXPECTED.
WINDS WILL RELAX AROUND SUNSET.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014
CONTINUED WARM AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS. EXPECT AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES TO FALL
INTO THE MID TO UPPER TEENS EACH AFTERNOON. FORTUNATELY...FUELS
ARE REPORTED AS GREEN FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING WHERE THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. SO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
SHOULD BE MINIMAL. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN CONSIDERABLY FROM
LATE SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY
TRACKS THROUGH THE ROCKIES.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BUNKERS/WFOUNR
LONG TERM...WFOUNR
AVIATION...CAH
FIRE WEATHER...WFOUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RENO NV
1049 PM PDT SAT OCT 25 2014
.UPDATE...
WINDS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE AROUND THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.
THE LATEST CHECK OF THE LAKE TAHOE BUOYS SHOWED WINDS IN THE 10 TO
15 MPH RANGE. GIVEN THESE DECREASING WINDS WE WILL ALLOW THE LAKE
WIND ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 11 PM. ELSEWHERE GUSTY WINDS TO NEAR 35
MPH ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN THE MORE WIND PRONE LOCATIONS EAST OF
THE SIERRA LATE THIS EVENING. THESE WILL WILL DECREASE AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT.
20
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 755 PM PDT SAT OCT 25 2014/
UPDATE...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING INTO CA NOW. THE SFC FRONT HAS PASSED
THROUGH MOST OF THE REGION AND WE HAVE GOTTEN INTO THE COLDER AIR.
WITH THE FRONT TO EAST MOST OF OUR STRONGEST WINDS HAVE DECREASED
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. A PLUME OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE UPPER
TROUGH IS STILL CREATING SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER
NRN CA. UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES FROM THE TAHOE BASIN
NORTHWARD IS HELPING DEVELOP HEAVIER PCPN IN SOME SPOTS BUT IT IS
NOT WIDESPREAD. UNDER THE HEAVIEST PCPN SNOW LEVELS ARE LIKELY TO
DROP TO AROUND 6500 FEET LATER TONIGHT WITH AN INCH OR TWO OF
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE AT THE HIGHER PASSES FROM ECHO SUMMIT
NORTH.
WITH THE DECREASE IN WINDS HAVE OPTED TO CANCEL THE WIND
ADVISORIES EARLY...EXCEPT THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR TAHOE. THERE
THE BUOYS ARE STARTING TO INCREASE AGAIN. THIS WILL RUN THROUGH 11
PM. FOR PYRAMID LAKE THE OBSERVATION AT ANAHO ISLAND STILL SHOWS
GUSTS CLOSE TO 50 MPH...BUT THE LAKE IS CLOSED AFTER SUNSET SO
WILL NOT ISSUE A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS. THERE WILL LIKELY BE
A FEW WIND PRONE AREAS WITH GUSTS TOPPING 45 MPH FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...BUT THESE WILL BE VERY ISOLATED IN NATURE.
RH VALUES ARE INCREASING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS WELL. ALTHOUGH
WIND GUSTS IN SOME AREAS MAY CONTINUE ABOVE 30 MPH...THE STRONGEST
GUSTS HAVE PASSED AND THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY WILL SPELL AN END
TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THEREFORE...THE RED FLAG WILL
BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 8 PM. 20
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 PM PDT SAT OCT 25 2014/
SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INLAND TONIGHT, BRINGING GUSTY WINDS ALONG
WITH LIGHT RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. COOLER CONDITIONS WITH A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED EARLY SUNDAY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.
MILD AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN NEXT WEEK, WITH A CHANCE OF
RAIN AND SNOW WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES BY NEXT WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM...
COLD FRONTAL PRECIPITATION BAND HAS MOVED INTO WESTERN NEVADA AND
THE EASTERN SIERRA AROUND LAKE TAHOE AND ALPINE COUNTY. THE
PRECIPITATION HAS FALLEN APART AS PROGGED BY MODELS NORTH OF RENO.
HOWEVER, PRECIPITATION HELD TOGETHER BETTER THAN EXPECTED FOR RENO
SOUTH TO MINDEN MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 395. NEAR THE
CREST WEST OF LAKE TAHOE THE PRECIPITATION WAS HEAVY ENOUGH TO
BRIEFLY DRIVE SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO BETWEEN 6500 AND 7000 FEET AND
CAUSE SLUSHY ACCUMULATIONS ON INTERSTATE 80 (THAT HAS SINCE MELTED).
OUTSIDE OF THE BRIEF LOWERING, SNOW LEVELS ARE RUNNING BETWEEN
ABOUT 7500 AND 8500 FEET. AS SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR ALOFT FILTERS IN
WITH THIS SYSTEM`S TROUGH AXIS TONIGHT AND PRECIPITATION TURNS
SHOWERY SNOW LEVELS WILL SLOWLY FALL TO AS LOW AS 6000-6500 FEET
ALTHOUGH MOST PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF BY THEN. IN ANY CASE,
BURSTS OF SNOW SHOWERS COULD CERTAINLY CAUSE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
AND SLICK ROADS AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS FROM TAHOE NORTH OVERNIGHT.
WIND-WISE, SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO BETWEEN 40
AND 60 MPH WERE WIDESPREAD TODAY. WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO FALL OFF
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BUT ARE STILL HOWLING OUT IN THE BASIN AND
RANGE WITH STRONG WEST WINDS DRIVING A LARGE AREA OF DUST OFF THE
CARSON SINK (EASTERN PERSHING/CHURCHILL COUNTIES).
FOR TONIGHT, THERE IS ONE MORE DISTURBANCE ROUNDING THE BASE OF
THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH. AT THIS TIME, IT IS FIRING UP NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND EVEN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA.
THIS IMPULSE WILL MOVE THROUGH FAR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS
EVENING AND FIRE UP ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS FOR NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA
AND WESTERN NEVADA, MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. THIS COULD
BRING LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE 6500-7000 FEET. ELSEWHERE,
RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT. WINDS
WILL REMAIN A BIT GUSTY FOR MANY AREAS THIS EVENING BEFORE DYING
OFF CONSIDERABLY FOR VALLEYS AS A WEAK SURFACE HIGH BUILD IN.
SUNDAY MORNING A FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS MAY LINGER WELL NORTH OF
I-80 BEFORE AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO SLOWLY BUILD OVERHEAD THROUGH
MONDAY. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A BIT BELOW AVERAGE AS
A COOL SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE GREAT BASIN. SNYDER
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION AT THE BEGINNING ON THE LONG TERM
ON TUESDAY. RATHER QUIET WEATHER OVERALL TUESDAY-THURSDAY. ONE
EXCEPTION IS POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT WARM ADVECTION PRECIP NORTH OF
SUSANVILLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
FILAMENT OF MOISTURE BREAKING OFF A MORE SIGNIFICANT ATMOSPHERIC
RIVER OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THIS
PRECIP IS ONLY MEDIUM - MAINLY DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN HOW FAR
SOUTH THE MOISTURE PLUME WILL GET.
MAIN INTEREST IN THE LONG TERM IS INCREASING LIKELIHOOD OF AN
APPRECIABLE TROF MOVING INTO CA/NV FRIDAY-SATURDAY. THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ECMWF/GFS BUT OVERALL THE BIG PICTURE
PATTERN IS SIMILAR, LEADING TO MEDIUM FORECAST CONFIDENCE WHICH AT
THIS LEAD TIME ISN`T BAD. NAEFS ANOMALY CHARTS ALSO PICKING UP ON
THIS TROUGH WHICH HELPS INCREASE CONFIDENCE IN THE PATTERN
VERIFYING. OVERALL CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE MINIMAL. CHANCE OF
RAIN FRIDAY-SATURDAY WITH SNOW LEVELS FALLING FROM 10KFT TO 6-7KFT.
QPF/TIMING ARE THE MAIN UNCERTAINTIES: ECMWF LIGHTER QPF BUT FASTER
WHILE GFS HAS SOME PERIODS OF HEAVY PRECIP IN THE SIERRA BUT IT`S
SLOWER. NO REASON TO FAVOR ONE OUTCOME OVER THE OTHER RIGHT NOW.
STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY GIVEN
SFC GRADIENT AND 700MB FLOW 40-55 KTS DEPICTED IN THE GFS; TO A
LESSER EXTENT IN THE ECMWF. CS
AVIATION...
NOT EXACTLY THE MOST PLEASANT DAY FOR FLYING WITH STRONG WINDS AND
SHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGH MID-EVENING. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE
TAFS IS MEDIUM.
WINDS HAVE BEEN SOMEWHAT ERRATIC AROUND RNO/CXP WITH PRECIP SPILLING
OVER AND SWITCHING WIND DIRECTION AT SFC TO W/NW. S/SW WINDS IN
FOOTHILLS YIELDING LLWS WHICH HAS BEEN REPORTED BY RECENT ARRIVALS
INTO RNO. NOT SURE HOW LONG THIS WESTERLY WIND WILL LAST SO HAVE
USED TEMPO IN TAF. THE NEXT UNCERTAINTY IS POTENTIAL FOR MOUNTAIN
WAVE AND DOWNSLOPE WIND ENHANCEMENTS AT RNO/CXP FROM 23Z-03Z AS
WINDS ALOFT TURN MORE W/SW. IF THIS HAPPENS WINDS AT THE SURFACE
WOULD TURN MORE SSE BUT JUST OFF THE SURFACE STRONG SW WINDS OF
50KTS WOULD RESULT IN APPRECIABLE LLWS CONTINUING AT RNO/CXP. HRRR
SHOWING THIS SIGNATURE CLEARLY IN LATEST RUNS. OVERALL THE
PROBABILITY OF THIS SCENARIO PANNING OUT IS ABOUT 50-60% SO HAVE
INCLUDED IN THE 18Z TAFS.
OTHERWISE MAIN ISSUE IS PRECIP IN THE SIERRA AND IN FAR WESTERN
NEVADA WEST OF HWY 395. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR GUIDANCE -
BETWEEN NOW AND 03Z IS OPTIMAL TIME FOR COLD FRONTAL RAIN TO IMPACT
AIRFIELDS INCLUDING TRK/TVL/BRIDGEPORT. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION IS A
GIVEN IN THE SIERRA AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT DAYBREAK SUNDAY
IN THE COOLER POST FRONTAL AIRMASS. IF SKIES CLEAR ENOUGH FOG IS
POSSIBLE AT TRK LATE TONIGHT SINCE THEY DID GET A BURST OF RAIN THIS
AFTERNOON. CS
FIRE WEATHER...
STRONG WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES IN. INCREASING MOISTURE OVER THE SIERRA AND ALONG THE
SIERRA FRONT HAVE HELPED TO INCREASE THE HUMIDITY IN THE RENO-CARSON
CITY-MINDEN AREAS. THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE WESTERN NEVADA
SIERRA FRONT WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 3PM THIS AFTERNOON.
FURTHER EAST, DRIER CONDITIONS AND STRONG WINDS WILL KEEP THE RED
FLAG WARNING IN PLACE THROUGH 8PM THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH WESTERN NEVADA THIS EVENING WITH
DIMINISHING WINDS, GOOD RECOVERY AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.
HOON
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
115 AM MDT SUN OCT 26 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW LARGE SCALE RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...EXTENDING NORTH INTO THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS IN PLACE OVER SE
COLORADO AND NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. A STALLED FRONT IS BISECTING OUR CWA...EXTENDING
FROM NE COLORADO TO CENTRAL KANSAS (ROUGHLY ALONG A KAKO-KGLD-
KHYS LINE).
WITH STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE AND MAIN STORM TRACK WELL NORTH OF THE
CWA...PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AGAIN
SUNDAY AND POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG TONIGHT.
REGARDING DENSE FOG...NAM/RUC/HRRR RH AND VIS FIELDS CONTINUE TO
SHOW POSSIBILITY OF DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT NORTH OF THE QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT. SREF PROBABILITIES ARE ALSO SHOWING THIS.
LOCATION OF FRONT AND MOISTURE POOLING ALONG/NORTH OF THIS FEATURE
WILL LIKELY BE CRITICAL TO DENSE FOG LOCATION...IN ADDITION NEAR
INVERSION LAYER WINDS 10-20KT MAY ALLOW FOR ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP
VIS HIGHER UNTIL LOW LEVELS COMPLETELY DECOUPLE AROUND SUNRISE.
THERE IS ALSO INDICATION FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS AND CURRENT
GFS THAT FRONT WILL BE FURTHER NORTH AND EAST WHICH WOULD ALLOW
LOWER TD VALUES TO ADVECT EASTWARD WITH SHIFT IN LOW LEVEL FLOW.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN FOG DEVELOPMENT...BUT LOCATION IS ENOUGH OF
A QUESTION TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUANCE OF ADVISORY DURING DAYTIME
UPDATE PACKAGE.
TEMP FORECAST SUNDAY IS ALSO COMPLICATED BY POSITION OF QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER TEMPS ALOFT NORTH OF THIS
FRONT. ANY LINGERING STRATUS/FOG WOULD ALSO THROW A WRENCH INTO
THINGS...ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTHEAST. OVERALL I THINK TEMPS WILL
BE VERY SIMILAR TODAY...WITH SLIGHTLY "COOLER" TEMPS NORTH OF THE
FRONT JUST LIKE TODAY. EITHER WAY TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
LOWER 80S FOR MOST PARTS OF THE CWA SUNDAY...AND IF FRONT LIFTS
NORTHEAST WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW COULD SUPPORT RECORD HIGHS IN
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 115 AM MDT SUN OCT 26 2014
WEDNESDAY...SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS BEFORE EXITING
THE AREA BY SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.
850MB TEMPERATURES WARM ABOUT 9F FROM TUESDAYS VALUES SUPPORTING
HIGHS AROUND 70/LOW 70S ACROSS THE AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
30S WEST TO LOW 40S EAST.
THURSDAY...HIGH AMPLIFIED RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY TOWARD THE
AREA REACHING THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING. COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH LOWERING 850MB TEMPERATURES ABOUT 9F ACROSS THE
AREA SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. SFC RIDGE AXIS HOLDS
FIRM ACROSS THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE FURTHER WEST LOW LEVEL
FLOW VEERS TO THE SOUTHEAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S
BUT COULD SEE SLIGHTLY COLDER READINGS ACROSS THE EAST WHERE
PROXIMITY TO SFC HIGH AND LIGHT WINDS LASTS LONGER WHEN COMPARED TO
AREAS FURTHER WEST. HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
RIDGE AXIS APPROACHES. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.
FRIDAY...GFS/ECMWF IS BETTER AGREEMENT THIS MORNING WITH TIMING OF
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WHICH IS NOW FORECAST TO BE OVER THE AREA BY
DAYS END AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. AS THE SFC HIGH SLOWLY MOVES EAST
AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES. STRONGEST SOUTHEAST WINDS GENERALLY ALONG/WEST OF THE
COLORADO/KANSAS BORDER WHERE GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 30 MPH RANGE
POSSIBLE. GFS SHOWING 850MB TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO THURSDAYS VALUES
WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWING SOME COOLER AIR ACROSS THE AREA. BLENDING
THE TWO GIVES HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S (EAST TO WEST). LOWS
IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.
SATURDAY...LARGE UPPER TROUGH JUST COMING ASHORE ACROSS THE WEST IN
THE MORNING NEARLY REACHES THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY SUNRISE SUNDAY
MORNING PUTTING THE FORECAST AREA UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
STRONGER SFC WINDS MIGRATE TO THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA DURING
THE AFTERNOON AS SFC TROUGH MOVES INTO EASTERN COLORADO. PLENTIFUL
DRY AIR CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.
850MB TEMPERATURES WARM QUITE SIGNIFICANTLY AND WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S PER GFS SOLUTION...THE ECWMF QUITE A BIT COOLER SO
WILL GO WITH CURRENT FORECAST OF LOW TO MID 60S FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1106 PM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT GLD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN AS VFR AT MCK AND TURN LIFR BETWEEN 11Z-14Z
AS LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WITH COOLING TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 50S PRODUCE FOG AND LOW CEILINGS.
CONDITIONS SHOULD RAPIDLY IMPROVE BACK TO VFR AFTER 14Z AS
NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE AND DRYER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA AS
TEMPERATURES ALSO INCREASE.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...LOCKHART
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1114 PM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW LARGE SCALE RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...EXTENDING NORTH INTO THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS IN PLACE OVER SE
COLORADO AND NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. A STALLED FRONT IS BISECTING OUR CWA...EXTENDING
FROM NE COLORADO TO CENTRAL KANSAS (ROUGHLY ALONG A KAKO-KGLD-
KHYS LINE).
WITH STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE AND MAIN STORM TRACK WELL NORTH OF THE
CWA...PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AGAIN
SUNDAY AND POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG TONIGHT.
REGARDING DENSE FOG...NAM/RUC/HRRR RH AND VIS FIELDS CONTINUE TO
SHOW POSSIBILITY OF DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT NORTH OF THE QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT. SREF PROBABILITIES ARE ALSO SHOWING THIS.
LOCATION OF FRONT AND MOISTURE POOLING ALONG/NORTH OF THIS FEATURE
WILL LIKELY BE CRITICAL TO DENSE FOG LOCATION...IN ADDITION NEAR
INVERSION LAYER WINDS 10-20KT MAY ALLOW FOR ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP
VIS HIGHER UNTIL LOW LEVELS COMPLETELY DECOUPLE AROUND SUNRISE.
THERE IS ALSO INDICATION FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS AND CURRENT
GFS THAT FRONT WILL BE FURTHER NORTH AND EAST WHICH WOULD ALLOW
LOWER TD VALUES TO ADVECT EASTWARD WITH SHIFT IN LOW LEVEL FLOW.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN FOG DEVELOPMENT...BUT LOCATION IS ENOUGH OF
A QUESTION TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUANCE OF ADVISORY DURING DAYTIME
UPDATE PACKAGE.
TEMP FORECAST SUNDAY IS ALSO COMPLICATED BY POSITION OF QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER TEMPS ALOFT NORTH OF THIS
FRONT. ANY LINGERING STRATUS/FOG WOULD ALSO THROW A WRENCH INTO
THINGS...ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTHEAST. OVERALL I THINK TEMPS WILL
BE VERY SIMILAR TODAY...WITH SLIGHTLY "COOLER" TEMPS NORTH OF THE
FRONT JUST LIKE TODAY. EITHER WAY TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
LOWER 80S FOR MOST PARTS OF THE CWA SUNDAY...AND IF FRONT LIFTS
NORTHEAST WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW COULD SUPPORT RECORD HIGHS IN
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 PM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014
UPPER FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AHEAD OF A
TROUGH THAT MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST MONDAY NIGHT WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW FOLLOWING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE TROUGH
WILL BE OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT.
THE UPPER TROUGH THAT COMES THROUGH HAS GOOD DYNAMICS BUT MOISTURE
IS LACKING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE DRY LOW LEVELS WITH
MARGINAL SATURATION AT MID LEVELS. ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION INTO MONDAY EVENING DUE TO THE TROUGH STILL
OVER THE AREA, THE GFS AND NAM TAKE THE BEST MOISTURE EAST OF THE FA
BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MAY BE OPTIMISTIC BUT WILL
KEEP THEM GOING. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO THE WINDY CATEGORY MONDAY
WITH GUSTS FROM 25 TO 35KTS. WIND SPEEDS COULD INCREASE TO LOW END
ADVISORY LEVELS. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT MONDAY NIGHT AND WITH
CLOUDS CLEARING AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 20S, WIDESPREAD FROST
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN COLORADO. TEMPERATURES MAY GET COLD
ENOUGH FOR A HARD FREEZE IN EASTERN COLORADO. FOR NOW WILL KEEP
FROST IN THE GRIDS AND MONITOR THE HARD FREEZE POTENTIAL.
SUBSIDENCE FOLLOWS THE EXITING TROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FA SO POPS WILL BE NIL.
MAX TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN
EASTERN COLORADO TO THE LOWER/MID 60S IN THE EASTERN FA. MIN
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 40S SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN COOL TO
THE LOWER TO MID 30S MONDAY NIGHT.
IN THE EXTENDED...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY
A RIDGE THAT WILL BUILD INTO THE ROCKIES THURSDAY AND INTO THE
PLAINS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP POPS NIL THROUGH
THIS PERIOD.
MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THIS PART OF THE
FORECAST WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S WEDNESDAY COOLING
TO THE LOWER 60S THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD COOL TO THE MID 30S. SOME FROST WILL BE
POSSIBLE AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
SLIGHTLY TO THE MID AND UPPER 30S WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1106 PM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT GLD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN AS VFR AT MCK AND TURN LIFR BETWEEN 11Z-14Z
AS LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WITH COOLING TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 50S PRODUCE FOG AND LOW CEILINGS.
CONDITIONS SHOULD RAPIDLY IMPROVE BACK TO VFR AFTER 14Z AS
NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE AND DRYER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA AS
TEMPERATURES ALSO INCREASE.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...LOCKHART
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
338 AM EDT Sun Oct 26 2014
.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday)...
Issued at 310 AM EDT Sun Oct 25 2014
...Dense Fog This Morning...Near Record Warmth Monday...
The near term forecast focus has been on dense fog that has
developed across southern into central Kentucky this morning
thanks to light/variable surface winds and a relatively moist air
mass characterized by dewpoints in the middle to upper 50s. This
is all ahead of a weak surface boundary that lies to the north. Until
this boundary pushes through the area later this morning,
conditions will remain ideal for radiation fog. The HRRR model
has been capturing the fog very well and shows it lingering
through mid morning before burning off. As such, a dense fog
advisory has been issued for the southern part of the forecast area
through mid morning to account for the expected impacts due to
locally 1/4 mile visibilities or less.
Once morning fog burns off, plan on a very pleasant day as high
pressure will be the dominant weather feature. Sunny skies, light
winds and above normal temperatures will be the rule. Compared to
yesterday, highs will be a few degrees lower, thanks to cooler
air aloft that will work in from the northeast. Highs should still
top out around 70 across the northeast forecast area to middle 70s
in the southwest.
The upper level pattern will then transition from zonal to
southwesterly, paving the way for near record warmth for much of the
Ohio River valley Monday. 26.00z model guidance remains very
consistent with past model cycles showing that as a strong shortwave
trough advances across the northern Plains, the ensuing
southwesterly flow will bring a surge of +16 to +17C 850 mb air
across the region. Soundings show mixing up to around 850 mb, so
this supports highs in the lower to middle 80s. With near full
sunshine, kept forecast highs on the warm side of guidance. 26.00z
850 mb temperature standardized anomalies vary from +2 to nearly
+2.5 SD, which increases confidence in approaching records for
Monday. It will also be a breezy day with winds gusting to 30 mph at
times across much of the area.
Below are the records for Monday and Monday night.
Record Max Oct 27 Record Warm Low Oct 28
Louisville 84 (1940) 64 (1991 and 1984)
Lexington 87 (1940) 64 (1984)
Bowling Green 87 (1919) 65 (1984)
Frankfort 89 (1940) 61 (1899)
.LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)...
Issued at 315 AM EDT Sun Oct 26 2014
After a warm and breezy night Monday night with lows generally in
the 58-63 degree range, a cold front will advance into the region on
Tuesday. Widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms will
accompany the front, with just about everybody standing a chance at
getting some rain. The front will be losing some of its punch as it
enters the Ohio Valley and the best dynamics will be to our north
across MI/IN/OH, but we`ll still have a chance at some thunder here
coincident with a narrow band of surface based instability around
mid day. High temperatures should be in the 70s with winds gusting
to around 20 or 25 mph.
Tuesday night the front will push off to the east and our showers
will taper off from northwest to southeast. There could still be a
few left over rumbles of thunder in the Lake Cumberland region
during the evening hours. General rainfall totals are progged in
the quarter to half inch range, though amounts will vary with the
convective nature of the precipitation. Overnight lows behind the
front will be in the 40s.
During the remainder of the week several waves will pass overhead in
progressive WNW flow, but a lack of deep moisture for these waves to
work with will lead to a mostly dry forecast for now. Daily highs
will decrease from around 60 on Wednesday to around 50 (probably 40s
in the Blue Grass) on Saturday as Canadian high pressure dives SSE
right into the Ohio Valley by the weekend. Morning lows on Saturday
should be around the freezing mark, and below freezing Saturday
night.
&&
.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 110 AM EDT Sun Oct 26 2014
Main aviation concern is fog development in the very near term at
BWG and to some degree at LEX. Higher low-level moisture pool ahead
of a boundary that lies across southern Indiana combined with
light/variable surface winds has resulted in MVFR fog at BWG and
surrounding sites. Although latest forecast guidance does not
suggest a long period of IFR conditions to develop at BWG, soundings
show favorable light surface winds and near surface saturation to
linger through the early morning hours. However, just off the
surface /950 mb/ winds remain elevated overnight and this may limit
dense fog formation. For now, will continue tempo period of IFR for
early this morning at BWG but confidence is not very high. At LEX,
patchy MVFR fog remains a possibility while VFR conditions will
prevail at SDF.
Otherwise, once morning fog burns off, weak high pressure and drier
air will work into the region so plan on sunny skies and
light/variable winds for the TAF sites. By late in the period, winds
will begin to take on a southerly flow but remain less than 5 kts.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 10 AM EDT /9 AM CDT/ this morning FOR
KYZ026-027-061>067-070>078-081-082.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Short Term........ZBT
Long Term.........13
Aviation..........ZBT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
320 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014
06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK COLD FRONT ON ITS WAY THROUGH EASTERN
KENTUCKY. MUCH DRIER AIR IS FOUND JUST TO THE NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY
AND TANTALIZINGLY CLOSE. HOWEVER...TO THE SOUTH HIGHER MOISTURE IS
FOUND AND WITH THE CLEAR SKIES THIS IS RESULTING IN AREAS OF FOG THAT
HAS BECOME LOCALLY DENSE. WILL BE GOING WITH A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH 14Z PER HRRR/GLAMP GUIDANCE. A RIDGE TO
VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT HAS DEVELOPED AGAIN TONIGHT WITH MANY
LOW SPOTS RUNNING IN THE UPPER 40S WHILE RIDGES ARE HOLDING IN THE
MID AND UPPER 50S. THE APPROACHING FRONT IS KEEPING THINGS A BIT MORE
STIRRED IN THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA SO THE DIFFERENCES ARE
SMALLER TO THE NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY. MEANWHILE...WINDS ARE
GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN THE VALLEYS WITH SOME NORTHWEST
BREEZES NOTED IN NORTHERN PARTS OF EAST KENTUCKY.
THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL TAKE A TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST AWAY
FROM THE AREA ALLOWING THE FAST FLOW TO REBOUND OVER THE TENNESSEE
AND OHIO VALLEYS TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND AND START THE NEW WEEK.
THUS...A MODERATELY STRONG RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER EAST KENTUCKY DURING
THE DAY MONDAY WHILE THE NEXT TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WITH ITS ENERGY ZIPPING NORTHEAST OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. AT LEAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...
THE RIDGE WILL KEEP THIS ENERGY AT BAY AND WELL AWAY FROM EASTERN
KENTUCKY. GIVEN THE MODEL SIMILARITIES...HAVE GONE WITH A GENERAL
BLEND OF THE MODELS WITH AN EMPHASIS ON THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM12
AND HRRR FOR WX DETAILS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE AREAS OF DENSE FOG OVER THE SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE CWA BURNING OFF BY MID MORNING...LEAVING BEHIND SUNNY
SKIES THAT WILL HELP GIVE US ANOTHER WARM DAY. FOR TONIGHT...MILDER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...BUT THERE SHOULD BE LESS IN THE WAY OF FOG
THOUGH...MORE LIMITED TO JUST THE DEEPER VALLEYS...WITH ANOTHER
HEALTHY RIDGE AND VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT DEVELOPING. MONDAY WILL BE
A VERY WARM DAY AS THE FRONT MOVES BACK NORTH THROUGH THE AREA AS A
WARM ONE AND JUST SOME EXTRA CLOUDS. FOR MONDAY WE CAN EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES NEAR RECORD LEVELS ALONG WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE
AND SOUTHWEST WINDS.
FOR THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS...USED THE CONSSHORT...AND ITS BC VERSION...
AS A STARTING POINT THROUGH THE FIRST 18 TO 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST
FOLLOWED BY THE SUPERBLEND. DID MAKE SOME CHANGES TO BETTER REFLECT
THE RIDGE AND VALLEY DIFFERENCES ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA AGAIN TONIGHT. POPS THOROUGH THE PERIOD REMAINS LOW...IN LINE
WITH THE VALUES FROM THE MOS GUIDANCE.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014
MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT FOR
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...AND REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST FROM FRIDAY ONWARD INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THUS...HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST REMAINS FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.
TO START THE PERIOD...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE PUSHING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH A SURFACE LOW TRACKING ACROSS MICHIGAN.
THIS WILL FORCE A SURFACE COLD FRONT EASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY ON TUESDAY. AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH SHELTERED
VALLEYS EXPECTED TO DECOUPLE...WE SHOULD SEE A GOOD RIDGE/VALLEY
SPLIT MONDAY NIGHT WITH VALLEYS POSSIBLY STILL REACHING THE 40S AND
RIDGES CLOSER TO 60. ECMWF HAS MOVED TOWARDS THE FASTER GFS WITH THE
FRONTAL TIMING...SO IT NOW LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
EASTERN KENTUCKY BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH CLOUDS INCREASING THROUGH
THE DAY. WENT WITH A STRONG GRADIENT IN POPS FROM EAST TO WEST AS IT
NOW LOOKS LIKE RAIN SHOULD MAKE IT WELL INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY BY 00Z
TUESDAY. PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST. GIVEN THE MOISTURE AND
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND THE INCREASED MODEL AGREEMENT...HAVE
OPTED TO INCREASE POPS TO CATEGORICAL. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME
WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON TUESDAY...SO A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE FASTER TREND
PUTTING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.
STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH CLEARING WE WILL SEE IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY AS THIS WILL PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE ON
WHERE HIGHS END UP IN THE AFTERNOON. MORE CLOUDS MAY KEEP
TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST MAY REFLECT.
HOWEVER...OPTING TO SIDE WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS...ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER A BIT. REGARDLESS...IT WILL STILL BE
SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER THAN THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...KEEPING THE WEATHER QUIET THROUGH THIS PERIOD. BY
FRIDAY...MODEL DIFFERENCES BECOME TOO GREAT TO DISCERN HOW THINGS
WILL UNFOLD. IT DOES LOOK LIKE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST AND BRING SUBSTANTIALLY COLDER AIR INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY
FOR NEXT WEEKEND. HAVE OPTED TO STAY WELL BELOW GUIDANCE NEXT
WEEKEND. IT LOOKS LIKE MOST SCENARIOS HAS THE AREA LOCKED IN A GOOD
DEAL OF CLOUD COVER UNDERNEATH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...AT LEAST
THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY. THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF NOW ARE BOTH
FAVORABLE FOR A HARD FREEZE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING.
THIS IS OUTSIDE OF THE HWO PERIOD...SO FOR NOW WILL JUST PLAN TO GO
WITH SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY MORNING.
ALSO...OPTING TO GO WITH SOME LOW POPS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY. THE LATEST ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD SUPPORT SOME SNOW ON THE
HIGH TERRAIN SATURDAY MORNING. LOOKS LIKE A CHILLY WEEKEND FOR
HALLOWEEN FESTIVITIES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014
WITH THE CLEAR SKIES ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT...
EXPECT THE SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG TO FORM IN THE VALLEYS OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS AND LINGER PAST SUNRISE. SOME OF THE VALLEYS WILL BE DOWN
TO VLIFR. FOR THE TAF STATIONS...ONLY EXPECT SOME MVFR VSBY NEAR
DAWN AT LOZ...VFR FOR JKL AND SJS...AND AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF IFR OR
LOWER FOR SME WHERE THE FOG HAS SET IN EARLY. ONCE THE FOG BURNS
OFF...LATER THIS MORNING EXPECT CLEAR SKIES. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
116 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW WNW FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE UPR GREAT LKS BTWN UPR RDG EXTENDING FM TEXAS THRU THE
ROCKIES AND DEEPENING UPR TROF NEAR HUDSON BAY ENHANCED BY STRONG
SHRTWV DIGGING THRU NW ONTARIO THAT IS ACCOMPANIED BY 12HR H5 HGT
FALLS UP TO 130M. TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BTWN ASSOCIATED LO PRES NEAR
JAMES BAY AND HI PRES IN THE NRN PLAINS IS ALLOWING FOR GUSTY WNW
WINDS OVER UPR MI EARLY THIS AFTN. THE 12Z INL RAOB SHOWED WINDS
NEAR 40 KTS AT 3-4K FT AGL...AND SFC WIND GUSTS HAVE REACHED AOA 40
MPH OVER MUCH OF THE CWA WITH DAYTIME HEATING ALLOWING THE MIXING OF
THOSE HIER WINDS TO THE SFC. THE AIRMASS STREAMING INTO UPR MI IS A
DRY ONE... SO THERE HAVE ONLY BEEN SOME SCT DIURNAL CU/SC. BUT MORE
SC IS NOTED OVER ONTARIO CLOSER TO CORE OF COLDER AIR AT H85. LOOKING
WELL UPSTREAM...THERE IS A POTENT SHRTWV APRCHG THE PAC NW.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED ON WINDS INTO THIS
EVNG AND THEN ON TEMPS FOR SUN.
LATE TDAY/TNGT...WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING AND SLOW BUT
STEADY APRCH OF SFC HI PRES RDG FM THE W/DIMINISHING H925 WINDS...
THE GUSTY WNW WINDS THAT LINGER THRU THE AFTN WL DIMINISH. HIER
WAVES WHIPPED UP BY THE STRONG WINDS THIS AFTN AND IMPACTING AREAS
FM ONTONAGON THRU COPPER HARBOR AND E OF MARQUETTE MAY CAUSE SOME
MINOR BEACH EROSION ALONG THE LK SUP SHORE. SKIES SHOULD BE MOCLR...
BUT AS THE FLOW VEERS A BIT MORE TO THE NW OVER THE E AND ADVECTS
SOMEWHAT COLDER H85 AIR INTO THAT AREA...SOME OF THE BKN SC IN
ONTARIO MAY MOVE INTO THE ERN CWA. THIS CAD WL ALSO MAINTAIN GUSTY
WINDS OVER THE E FOR A BIT LONGER. A STEADY NW WIND THRU THE NGT WL
LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP DROP EVEN WHERE SKIES ARE CLR. EXPECT THE
LOWEST MIN TEMPS OVER THE INTERIOR W...WHERE WINDS WL BECOME LIGHTER
TOWARD DAYBREAK WITH THE CLOSER APRCH OF SFC HI PRES RDG.
SUN...HI PRES RDG CROSSING UPR MI WL BRING A MAINLY SUNNY DAY...
EXCEPT FOR SOME SCT DAYTIME CU OVER THE E CLOSER TO SLOWLY DEPARTING
H85 THERMAL TROF. STEADY NW WINDS OVER THE E IN THE MRNG WL DIMINISH
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE RDG. WITH H85 TEMPS REBOUNDING TO 10C OVER
THE W BY 00Z MON...MAX TEMPS SHOULD RISE INTO THE 50S AND PERHAPS
TOUCH 60 OVER THE W WHERE DVLPG SE FLOW WL DOWNSLOPE. MORE
PERSISTENT NW FLOW OFF THE CHILLY WATERS OF LK SUP WL KEEP THE E
COOLEST...AND TEMPS THERE NEAR LK SUP MAY BE HARD PRESSED TO REACH
50.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014
A 500MB RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE CWA AT 00Z MON...BUT WILL MOVE E BY
12Z MON AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NRN PLAINS ACCOMPANIED BY
A BROAD SFC LOW ACROSS MN. EXPECT SHOWERS /AND POSSIBLY SOME
THUNDERSTORMS/ ASSOCIATED WITH WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THE
LOW TO MOVE ACROSS THE WRN CWA SUN NIGHT IN MON MORNING...THEN
ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA MON MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL THEN SHIFT ACROSS THE CWA TUE INTO TUE NIGHT...WITH
INTENSIFICATION OF THE BROAD SFC LOW OCCURRING. EXACTLY WHEN/WHERE
THE BEST CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS IS UNCERTAIN DUE TO MODEL DISAGREEMENT
ON MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH. DESPITE
LACKING EXACT DETAILS...THE PRECIP FORECAST REMAINS SOMEWHAT MORE
CERTAIN. RAIN SHOWERS /AGAIN WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS/ SHOULD
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE MON EVENING THROUGH MON NIGHT...BUT THE
DRY SLOT WILL LEAD TO A DRIER FORECAST FOR TUE MORNING. WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE AND COOLER NWLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO LAKE ENHANCED RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS LATE TUE INTO THU AS 850MB TEMPS FALL AS LOW AS
-5C...ALTHOUGH A DIMINISHING TREND IN SHOWER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS TIME. MON AND TUE WILL SEE HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S
TO MID 50S...BUT WED WILL ONLY SEE HIGHS REACH THE LOW TO MID 40S.
WED NIGHT AND THU MORNING LOOK DRY FOR THE MOST PART AS A SFC RIDGE
SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA...BUT CLOUDS WILL COVER THE AREA DUE TO AMPLE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS WELL AS FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR.
POOR RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY FROM THE MODELS DOES NOT LEND MUCH
CONFIDENCE FOR THU THROUGH NEXT SAT AS THEY POINT TO A DEEPER TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...BRINGING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AOB
-10C. AS MENTIONED MODELS VARY FROM RUN TO RUN AND DISAGREE WITH
EACH OTHER ON ALL BUT THE VERY GENERAL PATTERN...AND EVEN AT THAT
THE TIMING OF WHEN AND FOR HOW LONG THE COLD AIR MOVES OVERHEAD IS
NOT AGREED ON. WILL HAVE CHANCES OF LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW THU
NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT. FOR SAT...MODELS WANT TO BRING A SFC HIGH INTO
THE AREA BUT WITH CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY. WILL KEEP POPS GOING INTO
SAT FOR LAKE EFFECT...BUT JUST SLIGHT CHANCE FOR NOW. HIGH TEMPS ON
FRI MAY NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 30S IN MANY LOCATIONS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 116 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014
UNDER A DRY AIR MASS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW
THRU THIS FCST PERIOD. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX AS SFC HIGH PRES
RIDGE APPROACHES...ARRIVING OVER THE AREA DURING THE MID AND LATE
AFTN HRS. PRES GRADIENT WILL QUICKLY TIGHTEN TONIGHT. WITH LOW-LEVEL
JET RAMPING UP OVER NOCTURNAL INVERSION...LLWS MAY NEED TO BE
CONSIDERED IN LATER FCSTS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014
AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY WEST TO EAST OVER
NORTHERN ONTARIO...SW TO W GALES OVER 35 KTS ARE EXPECTED INTO
THIS EVENING...MAINLY CENTRAL AND EAST LAKE SUPERIOR. NW WINDS OF 20
TO 30 KTS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING IN WAKE OF THE LOW AND
BEFORE SFC RIDGE CROSSES THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. AFTER A BRIEF
PERIOD WITH WINDS LESS THAN 20 KTS WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE...SE WINDS
INCREASE TO 30 KTS OVER MAINLY EAST LAKE SUPERIOR ON MONDAY AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. ONCE THIS LOW MOVES TO THE EAST
OF LAKE SUPERIOR ON TUESDAY...WEST WINDS TO 30 KTS AND POSSIBLY UP
TO GALE FORCE OF 35 KTS WILL DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT NORTHWEST AND STAY UP TO 30 KTS INTO
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 25 KTS BY
THURSDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR LSZ251-267.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR LSZ250-265-
266.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...TITUS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
347 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE CHANCE OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS THROUGH ABOUT
NOON TODAY.
STARTING WITH THE BIG PICTURE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR
PLOTS SHOW ONE CLOSED LOW OVER QUEBEC AND THE NORTHEAST CONUS...WITH
RIDING OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY AND THEN ANOTHER TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. DECENT HEIGHT FALLS WITH THE
UPSTREAM TROUGH WITH A 500 MB 12 HOUR CHANGE OF 40 METERS OVER THE
EASTERN ROCKIES AND 80 TO 100 METERS ACROSS IDAHO. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE AT 1 AM LOCAL TIME...HIGH PRESSURE WAS SLIDING SOUTHEAST AND
WAS OVER SOUTHERN MN/NORTHERN IOWA. LOW PRESSURE WAS SITUATED OVER
SOUTHEAST COLORADO WITH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS. HIGHER DEWPOINTS WERE POOLING ALONG AND EAST OF THE
BOUNDARY WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S OVER EASTERN
KANSAS. CLOSER TO HOME DEWPOINTS RANGED FROM THE UPPER 30S IN THE
NORTHERN PART OF OUR CWA TO THE MID 50S IN OUR SOUTHERN CWA.
THE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM WITH A
PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN. WE SHOULD REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE UPPER RIDGE TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH ADVANCING
EAST AND IT IS EXPECTED TO STRETCH FROM EASTERN MONTANA TO WESTERN
COLORADO BY SUNRISE MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP OUR AREA DRY OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE BIGGER CONCERN THEN IS WILL WE SEE ANY FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT
JUST PRIOR TO SUNRISE AND WILL IT PERSIST FOR PART OF THE DAY? AS OF
1 AM LOCAL TIME...THE WINDS ACROSS THE CWA REMAIN EASTERLY AND A BIT
STRONGER THAN ONE WOULD WANT TO SEE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. THE MODELS
HAVE BEEN INDICATING THE WINDS SHOULD TURN MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AS THE
COLORADO SURFACE LOW ADVANCES CLOSER TO OUR CWA. THIS WOULD HELP
ADVECT THE HIGHER SURFACE MOISTURE FROM KANSAS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. THE QUESTION THEN IS IF THIS OCCURS EARLY ENOUGH BEFORE
SUNRISE TO AID IN LOW CLOUD AND FOG DEVELOPMENT...OR IS IT AFTER THE
SUN HAS RISEN ENOUGH THAT WE HEAT UP IN THE LOWER LEVELS THUS
LIMITING FOG/LOW CLOUDS. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR BOTH
MODEL TRENDS AND REALITY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE DECIDING. IN
ADDITION TO CAUSING EARLY MORNING VISIBILITY ISSUES...AND LINGERING
CLOUDS/FOG WOULD ALSO AFFECT THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR TODAY.
AFTER WATCHING THINGS PLAY OUT OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...DECIDED TO
BACK OFF ON FOG WORDING. WILL LEAVE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG IN FOR
NOW BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE LOWER VISIBILITIES.
DO NOT EXPECT ANY MAJOR FOG ISSUES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT SINCE THE WINDS
SHOULD SWITCH TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW PASSES
THROUGH...THUS SHUNTING THE HIGHER MOISTURE EAST.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014
MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...SHOWING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION AS A
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTH FROM LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE MT/CAN BORDER
SLIDES EAST...AND BROAD HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER THE ERN CONUS. AT
THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT BEING PUSHED SOUTH BY THIS DISTURBANCE IS
EXPECTED TO HAVE MADE ITS WAY THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA BY
SUNRISE MONDAY. DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON MONDAY...THIS UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST THOUGH THE
PLAINS...BUT OUTSIDE OF A SMALL CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS...MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW NOT A WHOLE HECK OF A LOT GOING ON ACROSS THE CWA.
KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING ACROSS PRIMARILY THE NWRN HALF OF
THE CWA...BUT SOME MODELS SUGGEST WE WOULD BE LUCKY TO SEE
SPRINKLES. WILL SEE HOW UPCOMING RUNS TREND.
ONCE THIS SYSTEM PASSES EAST OF THE CWA...THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD THROUGH SATURDAY CONTINUES TO BE A DRY ONE. MORE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BUILDS INTO THE AREA TUE/WED AS THE TROUGH AXIS
KEEPS MOVING EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST
REGIONS...AMPLIFYING AS WE GET INTO THE LATER PORTIONS OF THE
PERIOD...WITH RIDGING BUILDING NORTH THROUGH THE ROCKIES AHEAD OF
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WORKING ITS WAY TOWARD THE WEST COAST.
MODELS IN SHOWING NO NOTABLE SYSTEMS BRINGING PRECIP TO THE
CWA...BUT DO SHOW DISTURBANCES SLIDING TO THE N/NE OF THE
CWA...BRINGING REINFORCING SHOTS OF COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA.
LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES...COLD AIR ADVECTION ON MONDAY IS FORECAST
TO RESULT IN HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S IN THE NW TO NEAR 70
IN THE SE...AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY NW WINDS THANKS TO A
TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT AND INCREASED MIXING POTENTIAL. SPEEDS
OF 2O TO 25 MPH AND GUSTS OVER 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. THAT COOLER
AIRMASS STICKS AROUND AS WE GET INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK AS
SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN OVER THE AREA. TUES IS A TOUCH COOLER
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S...WITH WED/THURS IN THE 60S.
FOR FRI/SAT...ANOTHER COOL FRONT PASSING THROUGH LOOKS TO DROP TEMPS
BACK A BIT AGAIN...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD 50S CURRENTLY IN THE
FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE THE CHANCE OF FOG/STRATUS
FORMATION BETWEEN THE 09 AND 15Z TIME FRAME. A WEAK SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER EASTERN COLORADO IS SLATED TO MOVE SLOWLY
EAST WHICH WOULD SWITCH THE WINDS FROM EASTERLY TO SSE. THIS IN
TURN WOULD BRING FETCH OF HIGHER LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS INTO THE
TERMINAL AREAS. THE MAIN QUESTION IS WHETHER THIS WILL OCCUR
BEFORE THE SUN RISES AND HEATING TAKES PLACE. APPEARS IT WILL BE A
CLOSE CALL. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE SREF AND HRRR MODELS HAVE
BACKED OFF ON THE EXTENT OF THE FOG/STRATUS AND MOS GUIDANCE NOT
SHOWING ANY VSBY/CIG ISSUES AT ALL. WILL DO THE SAME WITH THE
FORECAST IN TERMS OF BACKING OFF THE TREND FOR LIFR CONDITIONS BUT
WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR GOING. CONFIDENCE NOT REAL HIGH AND
WILL CLOSELY MONITOR THE REST OF THE SHIFT.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...EWALD
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...EWALD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
309 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014
UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS
MORNING. LEE SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WITH A WARM
WARM EXTENDING EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS INTO CENTRAL
MISSOURI. SOME 4500` STRATOCU HAD DEVELOPED IN NORTHWEST
MISSOURI...AND THIS MOIST AXIS WILL BE EAST OF OUR AREA. MAIN
CONCERN HAS BEEN LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTHWEST AND
WHETHER ANY STRATUS AND/OR FOG WOULD DEVELOP WITHIN AN AREA OF
STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. NO CLOUDS HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS YET...AND LATEST RAP MODEL
WOULD SUGGEST THAT NOTHING WILL DEVELOP. HRRR SUGGESTS THAT
DEVELOPMENT MAY HOLD OFF FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS...DEVELOPING IN
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND THEN EXTEND SOUTHEAST INTO WEST CENTRAL
MISSOURI. THAT STILL SEEMS LIKELY...BUT WILL BE BACKING OFF
PREVIOUS FORECAST OF EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS...FOG AND EVEN DRIZZLE
IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. BELIEVE THE FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE AREA
THROUGH THE DAY...BUT NOT SURE IT WILL MAKE ALL THE WAY THROUGH.
THUS...WILL KEEP LOWER 70S IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...BUT WILL WARM
TO THE MID 70S ALONG THE I80 CORRIDOR AND FEEL OPTIMISTIC WE CAN
STILL REACH THE LOWER 80S IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. RECORD AT KLNK
TODAY IS 86...DON`T THINK WE`LL MAKE THAT AND SHOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES SHORT. SURFACE DEWPOINTS SHOULD RISE INTO THE 50S AND EVEN
LOWER 60S IN SOUTHEAST NE/SOUTHWEST IA TODAY ALSO GIVING US A
BRIEF RETURN TO SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID CONDITIONS THAN WE`VE HAD
RECENTLY.
UPPER TROUGH PUSHING ONTO THE WEST COAST MOVES THROUGH THE ROCKIES
AND ONTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY...WHICH DRAGS THE SURFACE
TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE AREA AS A COLD
FRONT. PRECIP SHOULD STAY WEST/NORTHWEST OF THE AREA TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...WITH WEAKENING WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND DEWPOINTS
REMAINING ELEVATED...WOWITH HIGHS IN THE ULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP ALONG/EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER
OVERNIGHT AS WELL.
COLD FRONT ARRIVES MONDAY WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASING
THROUGH THE DAY. THE REAL COOL AIR LAGS BEHIND THE FRONT UNTIL
TUESDAY. STILL LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY AS WELL...WHICH COULD LINGER ACROSS
WESTERN IOWA MONDAY EVENING.
COOLER TEMPS PREVAIL FOR TUESDAY WITH BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
WITH MID TO UPPER 50S...WHICH WOULD FINALLY BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014
THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS QUIET...WITH NORMAL OR JUST SLIGHTLY
BELOW TEMPS. THERE STILL IS A VERY WEAK WAVE THAT MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE REMAIN
JUST NORTH OF THE REGION. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN HINTING AT A SMALL
SPRINKLE CHANCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT PROBABLY NOT STRONG ENOUGH
TO MENTION YET. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY COULD BE WELL BELOW NORMAL...
BUT RECOVERY BACK TO NEAR NORMAL OR EVEN ABOVE IS POSSIBLE BY
SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014
STILL EXPECT CLOUDS TO BE ON THE INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AND INTO
MID MORNING SUNDAY. CEILINGS MAY DROP INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AND
THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME FOG. MOST LIKELY AREA FOR FOG WITH VSBY
UNDER 3 MILES IS KLNK...WHICH MAY SEE AN IFR CEILING BRIEFLY TOO.
AS WINDS ALOFT INCREASE AT AROUND 1000 FEET...SOME LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND LAST INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...MILLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1225 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 454 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014
UPDATED THE FOG FORECAST TO INCLUDE THE POSSIBILITY OF VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS DOWN TO AROUND ONE HALF MILE DUE TO FAVORABLE FOG
FORMATION CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT. THE WIND WILL SHIFT FROM
EASTERLY TO SOUTHEAST AND MOISTURE POOLING ACROSS KANSAS WILL LIFT
NORTH INTO OUR NEBRASKA ZONES. NUMEROUS FORECAST MODELS ARE
INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG...THE SREF IN PARTICULAR WITH
THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF MORE WIDESPREAD FOG OVER NEBRASKA ZONES.
NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH YET FOR A FOG ADVISORY AT THIS POINT IN
TIME...BUT CAN NOT RULE THAT OUT LATER TONIGHT DEPENDING ON HOW
THINGS BEGIN TO UNFOLD.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014
SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS HAVE CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA
THANKS TO AN UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.
AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES TO THE EAST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE SOUTH.
DEW POINT TEMPERATURES IN KANSAS ARE IN THE 50S AND THE MOIST AIR
WILL BE ADVECTING INTO THE AREA. WITH THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR
SKIES EXPECT THERE COULD BE SOME FOG FORMING. THE NAM AND GFS BOTH
HAVE AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE SREF HAS HIGH
PROBABILITIES OF VISIBILITY LESS THAN A MILE. THE LATEST COUPLE OF
RUNS HAVE HAD SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT AREAS...BUT ARE ALL IN THE SAME
VICINITY OF MAINLY IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. HAVE KEPT AREAS OF FOG
IN FOR LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR HOW
LOW THE VISIBILITY WILL GET TONIGHT.
THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO THE MORNING. THE FOG WILL
DIMINISH BY MID MORNING AND THE CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014
BIG STORY IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE THE RETURN OF MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. THERE WILL ALSO BE A LOW END CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
WE BEGIN THE PERIOD UNDER A SOMEWHAT ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. THERE
IS A WAVE OFF TO THE NORTHWEST...WHICH WILL BEGIN EJECT OVER INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS COME MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A COLD FRONT
COMING THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...IT WILL BE A RATHER BREEZY...WITH SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
AROUND 25 TO 30 MPH FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST. ALTHOUGH
DYNAMICALLY A DECENT SETUP WITH THE SHORTWAVE PASSAGE...THE
ATMOSPHERE IS RATHER DRY DURING THIS TIME AND LACKS INSTABILITY...SO
CONFIDENCE TO SEE ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT
IS RATHER LOW. A COUPLE MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME QPF AROUND THE
LOCAL AREA...BUT THE LACK OF MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE IS REALLY
THE KEY...AND AT THIS CURRENT TIME WOULD BE SURPRISED TO SEE MORE
THAN A LIGHT SHOWER TO PERHAPS ONLY SPRINKLES. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED.
AS MENTIONED EARLIER...WE WILL HAVE MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN
THE FORECAST FOR THE LONG TERM. THIS WEEKEND MAY BE THE LAST TIME WE
HAVE TEMPERATURES NEAR 80 DEGREES UNTIL NEXT YEAR...SO EVERYONE
SHOULD GET OUT AND ENJOY THE NICE WEATHER. WE ARE LOOKING AT TEMPS
MOSTLY IN THE 50S/60S THROUGH SATURDAY FOR HIGHS. SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF
THE TRI-CITES COULD SEE TEMPERATURES REACH THE LOWER 70S FOR HIGHS
MONDAY BEFORE THE COLD FRONT PASSES. OTHERWISE...EXPECTED
TEMPERATURES TO BE CLOSER TO NORMAL...WHICH IS BASICALLY THE UPPER
50S AND LOWER 60S FOR HIGHS...WHILE LOWS GENERALLY RANGE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 30S THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE THE CHANCE OF FOG/STRATUS
FORMATION BETWEEN THE 09 AND 15Z TIME FRAME. A WEAK SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER EASTERN COLORADO IS SLATED TO MOVE SLOWLY
EAST WHICH WOULD SWITCH THE WINDS FROM EASTERLY TO SSE. THIS IN
TURN WOULD BRING FETCH OF HIGHER LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS INTO THE
TERMINAL AREAS. THE MAIN QUESTION IS WHETHER THIS WILL OCCUR
BEFORE THE SUN RISES AND HEATING TAKES PLACE. APPEARS IT WILL BE A
CLOSE CALL. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE SREF AND HRRR MODELS HAVE
BACKED OFF ON THE EXTENT OF THE FOG/STRATUS AND MOS GUIDANCE NOT
SHOWING ANY VSBY/CIG ISSUES AT ALL. WILL DO THE SAME WITH THE
FORECAST IN TERMS OF BACKING OFF THE TREND FOR LIFR CONDITIONS BUT
WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR GOING. CONFIDENCE NOT REAL HIGH AND
WILL CLOSELY MONITOR THE REST OF THE SHIFT.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WESELY
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...GUERRERO
AVIATION...EWALD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1145 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014
SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE THE RETURN OF DEEPER MOISTURE
TONIGHT AND LOW CLOUDS/FOG DEVELOPMENT.
SEASONABLY STRONG 130-150KT UPPER LEVEL JETS WERE LOCATED OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. THESE FEATURES WERE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE H5 TROF OFF THE WEST COAST AND ATTENDANT 130M+
HEIGHT FALLS. IN ADDITION...THERE WAS A NEGATIVELY TILTED H5 TROF
NORTH OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. A BROAD H5 RIDGE WAS SITUATED OVER
THE ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. AT H85...THE THERMAL
RIDGE WAS OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE DEEP MOISTURE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILED ACROSS THE REGION WITH SUNSHINE AND MUCH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S/80S. RECORDS FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR ARE IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90...SO WELL BELOW THOSE
LEVELS.
WE HAD SOME DENSE FOG THAT DEVELOPED FROM ILLINOIS INTO
MISSOURI...AND SPREAD INTO SOUTHERN IOWA AND SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA...WHERE THE SURFACE DEWPOINTS WERE HIGH AHEAD OF THE
DRIER AIR.
AT 20Z...SURFACE DEWPOINTS VARIED FROM THE LOWER 30S IN THE NORTH
NEAR THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER TO THE MID 50S JUST SOUTH OF
BEATRICE. TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
INFLUENCE THE AREA WITH DRY AIR. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST
TO INCREASE AND H85 WINDS SHOULD BE AROUND 25 TO 35KTS. THE HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS DO NOT GO OUT FAR ENOUGH ON SUNDAY. THE
NAM/SREF ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAN THE
GFS. THE RAP IS SIMILIAR TO THE NAM AND IS STRONGER WITH THE
FORCING.
AS THE SURFACE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH...THERE WILL BE
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DEEPER MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS THAT WILL
FAVOR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. DO MENTION AREAS OF FOG IN THE
SOUTHWEST AND PATCHY FOG INTO THE CENTRAL ZONES/ THERE MAY BE SOME
SPRINKLES OR DRIZZLE AND DEPENDING ON HOW LONG THE LOW CLOUDS HANG
ON...WOULD AFFECT TEMPERATURES. THE MIXING FROM OMAHA NORTH AND
NORTHEAST IS MORE QUESTIONABLE...THUS HAVE HIGHS 70 TO 75 WITH
WARMER 75 TO 80 DEGREE TEMPS IN THE SOUTH FOR SUNDAY.
A COOL FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND THERE MAY BE SOME POST
FRONTAL SHOWERS MONDAY. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 60S AND 70S. BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014
THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS GENERALLY DRY. A WEAK FRONT PASSES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES FOR THE REST
OF THE EXTENDED. THE EC DOES BRING THE RIDGING EAST...HOWEVER THE
GFS IS SLOWER WITH THIS...THUS THE COOLER HIGHS IN THE 50S FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY COMPARED TO THE 60S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014
STILL EXPECT CLOUDS TO BE ON THE INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AND INTO
MID MORNING SUNDAY. CEILINGS MAY DROP INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AND
THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME FOG. MOST LIKELY AREA FOR FOG WITH VSBY
UNDER 3 MILES IS KLNK...WHICH MAY SEE AN IFR CEILING BRIEFLY TOO.
AS WINDS ALOFT INCREASE AT AROUND 1000 FEET...SOME LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND LAST INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
AVIATION...MILLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
1150 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
MVFR/IFR SHALLOW FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPING SITES KBVO KXNA KFYV
KFSM OVERNIGHT. FOG LIFTING BY 14Z ALL LOCATIONS AS SOUTH WINDS
INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE. VFR...BREEZY REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD,
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 842 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014/
DISCUSSION...
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS THIS
EVENING IS GRADUALLY GETTING SUPPRESSED...AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES EAST INTO THE NORTHWEST CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...A
STATIONARY FRONT LIES ACROSS NORTHERN KS OVER INTO CENTRAL MO. TO
THE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 60S. HIGHER THAN
NORMAL MOISTURE NEAR THE GROUND COMBINED WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL ALLOW FOG TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS. THE LATEST
GUIDANCE FROM THE HRRR AND NAM IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH OUR
FORECAST...AND THE ONLY TWEAK MADE WAS TO INTRODUCE FOG SOONER
ACROSS PORTIONS OF FAR EASTERN OK WHERE A REPORT OF FOG HAS BEEN
RECEIVED.
INCREASING MID LEVEL FLOW OVER THE ROCKPILE DUE TO THE FLATTENING
OF THE RIDGE MENTIONED EARLIER WILL PRODUCE A STRONG LEE TROUGH
AT THE SURFACE OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON SUNDAY. AS A
RESULT...LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME QUITE BREEZY ON SUNDAY
OUT OF THE SOUTH BY AFTERNOON...IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE ACROSS
NORTHEAST OK. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AND FULL INSOLATION WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB A BIT HIGHER THAN TODAY...WITH READINGS NEAR
90 ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST OK. HARD TO BELIEVE THIS IS OCCURRING
IN LATE OCTOBER. A DOSE OF REALITY IS COMING NEXT WEEK HOWEVER.
LACY
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 639 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014/
AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FOG LIKELY DEVELOPING AT SITES KBVO/KFYV/KXNA/KFSM AFTER
07Z. POTENTIAL IFR FOG/STRATUS...ESPECIALLY KFSM 09Z-14Z.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS...GENERALLY SKC. BRISK SOUTHERLY
WIND DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WITH GUST TO 20-25KT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014/
DISCUSSION...
IT IS LATE OCTOBER BUT THAT FACT IS NOT READILY APPARENT BY THE
CURRENT TEMPERATURES OR THE FORECAST TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. NEAR RECORD HEAT PREVAILS TODAY...WITH AT LEAST A
COUPLE OF SITES LIKELY TO BE WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF RECORD
HIGHS TOMORROW.
PATCHY DENSE FOG COULD BECOME AN ISSUE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY TOMORROW...WITH THE BIGGEST PROBLEMS LIKELY TO AGAIN BE IN
FAR EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS ALONG THE
ARKANSAS RIVER...AND POSSIBLY IN THE CANEY RIVER VALLEY NEAR
BARTLESVILLE AS WELL. NAM HANDLED THIS MORNINGS FOG THE BEST...AND
ITS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES LOOK SIMILAR TOMORROW MORNING.
CROSS OVER TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAVORABLE FOR THE DENSE FOG
DEVELOPMENT AGAIN. MUCH LIKE TODAY...THE FOG SHOULD BE GONE BY MID
TO LATE MORNING AND PROVIDE LITTLE HINDRANCE TO THE WARM UP. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN TODAYS
IN MOST SPOTS...DESPITE THE FLATTENING OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. A STRONGER SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND AHEAD OF A
SLOWLY APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD MORE THAN BALANCE THAT OUT.
THE FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO ENTER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY
MIDDAY MONDAY...WHICH WILL PLACE THE PREFRONTAL WARM NOSE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE TRICKY ON MONDAY DUE TO A COUPLE OF FACTORS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA BY THE
AFTERNOON...AND THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED MORNING
LOW CLOUDS IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. IN ADDITION...A COOLER AIRMASS
OVER THE GULF COAST THIS MORNING WILL MIGRATE INTO EASTERN PARTS
OF THE REGION ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNTIED STATES. THIS COOLER AIRMASS WILL OFFSET...AT
LEAST TO SOME EXTENT...PREFRONTAL WARMING EFFECTS. DESPITE THESE
COMPLICATIONS...CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT THERE WILL BE A
ZONE ACROSS AT LEAST EASTERN OKLAHOMA WHERE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
ABOVE GUIDANCE VALUES. RIGHT NOW...IT APPEARS THAT WILL BE
SOMEWHERE FROM INTERSTATE 44 SOUTHWARD TO ABOUT MCALESTER AND
WILBURTON.
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY AS THE
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AND THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PLAINS.
THUNDER POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO LOOK MINIMAL BUT NON ZERO. THE
FRONT SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY...BRINGING AN END
TO THE RAIN.
MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THIS FRONT AND
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK. WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES APPEAR IN THE OFFING FOR NEXT WEEKEND...AS MERIDIONAL
FLOW DEVELOPS IN THE PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO A DEEP UPPER TROUGH IN
THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE UNITED STATES. IT IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION THAT WE MAY SEE THE FIRST FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES OF THE
SEASON SOMETIME NEXT WEEKEND IF EXPECTATIONS DO NOT CHANGE IN THE
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 62 90 65 84 / 0 0 0 10
FSM 59 88 60 83 / 0 0 0 10
MLC 63 88 64 86 / 0 0 0 10
BVO 56 90 61 82 / 0 0 0 10
FYV 57 86 60 79 / 0 0 0 10
BYV 59 84 62 80 / 0 0 0 10
MKO 60 89 62 85 / 0 0 0 10
MIO 60 87 64 83 / 0 0 0 10
F10 62 88 64 86 / 0 0 0 10
HHW 61 87 60 83 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...21
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
416 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014
ONE MORE DAY OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION. GRADIENT INCREASES SO IT WILL BE A BREEZY DAY THOUGH...WITH
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 30 MPH. THIS WIND COMBINED
WITH LOW HUMIDITY...WILL RESULT IN VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND ADJACENT NORTHWEST IOWA. FEEL
LIKE RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL GENERALLY STAY HIGH ENOUGH TO PREVENT
ANY RED FLAG CRITERIA.
STILL UNCERTAINTY ON STRATUS DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING. LOW LEVELS
REMAIN QUITE DRY...HOWEVER MODELS SHOW A NARROW CORRIDOR OF
MOISTENING AROUND 850 MB. NAM AND GFS SATURATE THIS
LEVEL...RESULTING IN A CORRIDOR OF STRATUS MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE CWA. RAP AND HRRR STAY SHORT OF SATURATING THEY LAYER...AND THUS
KEEP IT SUNNY. AT THIS TIME NO REAL WAY TO TELL WHICH IS
CORRECT...SO WILL GO WITH A COMPROMISE AND MONITOR TRENDS OVER THE
COMING HOURS. GIVEN THE LOWER SURFACE DEWPOINTS THAN ORIGINALLY
FORECAST...CONFIDENCE IS HOWEVER GROWING THAT DIURNALLY DRIVEN
STRATOCU GENERATION IS UNLIKELY. THUS THINKING ANY STRATUS THAT DOES
FORM WILL QUICKLY SHIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES RETURNING IN ITS WAKE. SO
OVERALL...EXPECTING MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS TODAY OVER THE CWA. GIVEN
THIS...AND WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT...WILL CONTINUE ON THE WARMER
SIDE OF GUIDANCE...UPPER 60S SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA TO MID AND UPPER
70S ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER AND WEST OF THE JAMES.
COLD FRONT WILL WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH WINDS
TURNING NORTHERLY BEHIND IT. ANOTHER SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND WORRIED WE COULD SEE STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT AFTER SUNSET EAST OF INTERSTATE 29. ALSO STARTING TO
THINK WE MAY SEE FOG FORMATION ON THE EDGE OF THIS STRATUS...WHERE
THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS WILL RESULT IN LIGHT SURFACE WINDS...AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP TOWARDS THE
RELATIVELY HIGH DEWPOINT VALUES WE WILL HAVE. THUS ADDED SOME FOG
INTO THE GRIDS FOR NORTHWEST IOWA AND ADJACENT SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.
COULD POTENTIALLY BE A BIT FURTHER WEST TO...SO SOMETHING TO WATCH.
FORCING INCREASES TONIGHT AS A WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THINK
WE COULD BEGIN TO SEE SHOWERS DEVELOP ALONG THE ELEVATED FRONT BY
12Z ACROSS OUR SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA ZONES...SO WENT AHEAD AND
ADDED SOME POPS INTO THAT REGION. SHOULD GENERALLY BE A MILD NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014
COULD VERY WELL BE SOME LINGERING FOG IN NORTHWEST IA THROUGH
MID MORNING MONDAY...BEHIND WHAT MAY BE DEPARTING STRATUS PLACING
THAT AREA IN A FAVORABLE ZONE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. OTHERWISE MONDAY
IS HIGHLIGHTED BY OUR WELL ADVERTISED MID AND UPPER WAVE PASSING
ACROSS THIS AREA. THE WAVE IS OPEN AND NOT REAL ORGANIZED...AT LEAST
WITH THE JET DYNAMICS AND UPPER QG FORCING. THE NAM IS MOST BULLISH
WITH THE MOISTURE DEPTH FROM 850-500MB THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA. THE
GFS AND ECMWF ARE A LITTLE LESS SO...AND ALSO QUICKER WITH THE WAVE
PASSAGE WHICH LOOKS PREFERABLE TO THE SLOWER NAM. WITH THE WAVE OPEN
NOT SURE WHAT WOULD HANG IT UP AS PER THE NAM SOLUTION. BUT ONE
THING THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON IS SHOWING THE PLACEMENT
OF THE LOW AND MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
SLOPED QUITE STRONGLY...WITH THE 850MB FRONTOGENESIS FAVORING
NORTHWEST IA WHERE LIMITED MOISTURE EXISTS AT THAT LEVEL. BUT
FURTHER NORTH...THE 700-600MB FRONTOGENESIS TAKES OVER AND THIS IS
WHERE THE HIGHEST POPS ARE PLACED. STILL...WITH THE SKITTISHNESS OF
THE OVERALL DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE PROFILE...KEPT POPS MAINLY ONLY IN
THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR LIGHT RAINFALL. SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY AND WILL BECOME QUITE BREEZY BY AFTERNOON. IN OUR FAR
WESTERN ZONES...THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER INDEX STAYS JUST INSIDE
THE HIGH CATEGORY...AS MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES LOOK A BIT TOO
HIGH...AND WIND SPEEDS A LITTLE TOO LOW TO WARRANT A VERY HIGH INDEX
AT THIS TIME. CONCERNING TEMPERATURES...COMPARED TO WHAT WE HAVE
BEEN HAVING LATELY...COOLER AIR WILL BE ADVECTING IN GIVING HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...WHICH IS STILL A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.
BUT THIS WILL CHANGE ON TUESDAY...AS COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES TO
POUR IN THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT ALONG A SECOND WAVE ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE PARENT UPPER TROUGH. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ONLY LOOK TO BE GENERALLY
IN THE RANGE OF 50 TO 55 DEGREES. AND WITH STOUT NORTHWEST WINDS OF
20 TO 30 MPH...WITH POTENTIALLY HIGHER GUSTS...THAT WILL ADD AN
EXTRA CHILL TO THE AIR. IN ADDITION...ALL OF THE VARIOUS
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE SHOWING A LOT OF MOISTURE IN THE 850-800MB
LAYER...GENERALLY BISECTING THE FORECAST AREA FROM NEAR HURON...TO
SIOUX FALLS AND STORM LAKE IOWA. ANYTHING ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF
THAT LINE WILL LIKELY BE CONSIDERABLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE DAY...WITH
INCREASINGLY SUNNY CONDITIONS HEADING TOWARD OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES.
THE FIRE DANGER ONCE AGAIN WILL BE ELEVATED IN THE HIGH CATEGORY...
BUT RIGHT NOW HUMIDITY VALUES LOOK TOO HIGH TO PLACE THE INDEX IN
THE VERY HIGH CATEGORY. FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH WINDS DECREASING
DRAMATICALLY AND CLEARING SKIES...LOWS WILL LIKELY BE ON THE COOL
SIDE OF MANY OF THE GUIDANCE VALUES. BECAUSE OF THIS...CHOSE TO GO
WITH THE BIAS CORRECTED RAW VALUES WHICH GAVE THE COOLEST LOW
TEMPERATURES OF AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING.
FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE FORECAST STILL LOOKS DRY AND
COOL. THE DETERMINISTIC GFS AND ECMWF FOR THE MOST PART ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH SATURDAY WHICH MAKES THE FORECAST EASIER. THERE IS
ONE WEAK WAVE WHICH MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ANOTHER STRONGER AND COLD SHORT WAVE DIVES DOWN THE FLOW THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH THIS SECOND FEATURE AND LIKELY
BETTER AS THE GFS LOOKS TOO WASHED OUT WITH THE WAVE. THEREFORE
CONTINUED TO BLEND SOME OF THE COOLER ECMWF VALUES INTO THE
CONSENSUS TEMPERATURES FOR LATE THIS WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1041 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z/26. SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING
ACROSS THE AREA WITH MARGINAL LOW LEVEL JET AT KHON. FURTHER EAST
THE LOW LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER....SO DID NOT
INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST. MVFR STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS NEBRASKA AND LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA
INTO MINNESOTA AND IOWA. HAVE INCLUDED SOME LOWER CEILINGS AT BOTH
KFSD AND KSUX. QUESTIONS REMAINS AS TO WHETHER THE CEILING WILL
MIX OUT...OR WILL HANG TOUGH THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CHENARD
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1225 AM CDT Sun Oct 26 2014
.DISCUSSION...
Please see the 06Z aviation discussion below.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR flight conditions with generally light winds will prevail through
the forecast period across all TAF sites. The only change of note
to the going TAFs was to remove the mention of MVFR fog at KHOB
Sunday morning, as recent guidance indicates the potential for fog
development to be very low.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 916 PM CDT Sat Oct 25 2014/
DISCUSSION...
Satellite imagery shows another clear night over West Texas and SE
NM, w/sfc obs showing a little more return flow than 24 hours ago.
Latest NAM develops a 30+kt LLJ overnight. this, and the fact that
very little fog developed last night, fog development looks
doubtful overnight. The HRRR agrees. However, forecast soundings
suggest temps can be lowered a couple of degrees. We`ll do a quick
update for this, and adjust other parameters as necessary. Updates
out shortly.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 148 PM CDT Sat Oct 25 2014/
DISCUSSION...
Areal coverage of fog was less this morning than yesterday, with
only a couple of observation sites reporting dense fog this morning,
and satellite imagery verifying very sparse coverage overall. An
upper ridge over the region will keep well above normal temperatures
going this afternoon and Sunday. Further drying of the boundary
layer, and more pointedly the ground, in addition to the warmer
afternoon temperatures taking longer to cool to surface dewpoints
overnight will likely continue the trend of less fog the next couple
of mornings.
The next couple of days temperatures will approach, if not eclipse,
record levels as the ua ridge over the region flattens due to an ua
trough traversing the western/central ConUS. The record high
temperature for Midland International Airport is 90 degrees for
today, the 25th, but also the 26th and 27th in 2011, 1950 and 1988
respectively. Although record highs are not looking likely this
afternoon, a surface trough developing south into the area Sunday,
and the associated low level thermal ridge, could allow temps to
warm near record levels. On Monday, increasing southwesterly flow
aloft will aid and abet southwest to west downslope, surface winds,
which could also promote temperatures warming to near, or above,
record levels. The only caveat Monday will be some increase in high
clouds tempering readings a little. Southwest winds will increase
the most in the Guadalupe Mountains Monday, but at this time it does
not appear mid level winds will be strong enough for high winds
there.
A fairly significant cool down is expected Tuesday as a cold front
drops south into the region in the wake of the mentioned ua trough.
Subsequent shifts will have to monitor whether a high gap wind event
will be possible in Guadalupe Pass behind the front. High
temperatures will end up 2 to 5 degrees below normal Tuesday
afternoon, especially north of Interstate 10. In addition,
temperatures could cool into the upper 50s over southeast New Mexico
and the northern Permian Basin late Tuesday afternoon. Seasonal
temperatures will prevail areawide Wednesday before a gradual
warming trend sets in Thursday and beyond. Just how much it warms
late next week will depend on how aggressively an ua ridge builds
eastward over the region, and will likely split the difference
between more/less aggressive model offerings. As far as rain
chances, showers and thunderstorms could affect the Lower Trans
Pecos, westward into the Davis Mountains and Big Bend region Tuesday
to Thursday. Since the amplitude of the passing ua troughs are not
progged to be very deep, and the quality of moisture over the region
is not progged to be very good, will leave the extended forecast dry
for now.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
84
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
814 AM MDT SUN OCT 26 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 811 AM MDT SUN OCT 26 2014
EXTENDED AREA AND EXP OF DENSE FOG BASED ON CURRENT COVERAGE
REFLECTED ON VIS/FOG SATELLITE PRODUCTS...SURFACE OBS...AND LOCAL
SPOTTERS. RAP SEEMS TO HAVE GOOD HANDLE ON CURRENT FOG
COVERAGE/TIMING. FOG/STRATUS IS LIMITED TO JUST NORTH OF
STATIONARY FRONT...AND WITH DAYTIME MIXING INCREASING AND SURFACE
TROUGH/FRONT SHIFTING EAST THIS FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE WITHIN TIME
RANGE REFLECTED BY RAP (ROUGHLY THROUGH 16/17Z).
UPDATE ISSUED AT 541 AM MDT SUN OCT 26 2014
DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS HITCHCOCK AND RED WILLOW COUNTIES
OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO. WEB CAMS ACROSS HITCHCOCK COUNTY AND THE
MCCOOK AIRPORT ALL INDICATE VISIBILITIES AROUND 1/4 MILE OR LESS.
THEREFORE HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THESE TWO COUNTIES
FOR THE NEXT 3 HOURS. DENSE FOG IS LIKELY SPREADING INTO THE
COUNTIES TO THE WEST AND SOUTH BUT AM THINKING THE COVERAGE IS NOT
ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY. VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE FROM WEST
TO EAST THIS MORNING AS THE WEAK FRONT MOVES EASTWARD BRINGING DRIER
AIR WITH IT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 AM MDT SUN OCT 26 2014
LATEST SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. TO THE WEST AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WAS MOVING ONTO THE WEST COAST. BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND
THE RIDGE AREAS OF CLOUDS WERE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. AT
THE SURFACE A WEAK FRONT WAS LOCATED ALONG THE KS/NE BORDER THEN
TURNED SOUTHWEST OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS NEAR COLBY...EXTENDING INTO
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. EAST OF THE FRONT SOUTHEAST WINDS WERE ADVECTING
HIGHER DEW POINTS TO THE NORTH. AS A RESULT EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP
EAST OF THE FRONT DURING THE MORNING.
TODAY EXPECT THE FOG TO PERSIST THROUGH MID MORNING THEN BEGIN TO
DISSIPATE FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE WEAK FRONT MOVES EASTWARD. THE
LOWEST VISIBILITIES WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE KS/NE BORDER
WHERE SURFACE WINDS WILL CONVERGE AND DEW POINTS WILL BE HIGHEST.
MEANWHILE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
AREA TODAY FOLLOWING THE WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. DUE TO THE DRY
AIR MASS IN PLACE AM NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN SOME CLOUD COVER WITH
THE FRONT/UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSAGE. HIGHS TODAY WILL
BE NEAR RECORD VALUES.
TONIGHT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
WEST HALF OF THE AREA...REMAINING STATIONARY THROUGH THE NIGHT.
OVERNIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. WITH THE
CONTINUED DRY ENVIRONMENT AM NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE THAN SOME
CLOUDS FROM THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH PRIOR TO THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH.
LATER ON MOISTURE AND LIFT INCREASE OVERNIGHT OVER THE NORTHWEST
PART OF THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH BUT AHEAD OF
THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. TOWARD
SUNRISE 700-500MB FRONTOGENESIS DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHWEST PART OF
THE AREA AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS. WITH MOISTURE CONTINUING TO
INCREASE AND THETA-E LAPSE RATES NEAR ZERO...WILL PLACE A MENTION OF
RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST PART OF THE AREA.
SOUNDINGS DO NOT LOOK TOO GREAT FOR ANY RAINFALL ACTUALLY REACHING
THE GROUND DUE TO A DRY LAYER BELOW ROUGHLY 700MB AND THE 100MB DEEP
SATURATED LAYER AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS...BUT CANNOT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT ANY RAINFALL. BY SUNRISE THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF
THE AREA BRINGING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN BEHIND IT.
MONDAY MORNING THE BEST INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LINKED
WITH THE BAND OF 700-500MB FRONTOGENESIS MOVING SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF
THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL WILL
BE IN THE MORNING OVER THE WEST WHERE THE FRONTOGENESIS WILL BE
STRONGEST. THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR RAINFALL WILL AGAIN BE THE DRY
LAYER PRESENT BELOW ROUGHLY 700MB AND THE FAIRLY SHALLOW DEPTH OF
THE SATURATED LAYER AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES
AND THE TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST FURTHER AWAY FROM
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...THE 700-500MB
FRONTOGENESIS WEAKENS CAUSING THE LIFT TO WEAKEN. IN ADDITION THETA-
E LAPSE RATES WILL BECOME MORE STABLE FURTHER HINDERING RAINFALL
DEVELOPMENT. AS A RESULT WILL HAVE RAINFALL CHANCES DECLINING
THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON NORTH WINDS WILL
INCREASE...WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH BY NOON. THE WIND WILL GRADUALLY
DECLINE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS AN 850MB RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST.
MONDAY EVENING SOME WEAK 700-500MB FRONTOGENESIS WILL BE OVER THE
FAR SOUTH/EAST PART OF THE AREA PRIOR TO THE TROUGH AXIS MOVING
THROUGH. WILL KEEP MINIMAL RAINFALL CHANCES GOING JUST AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH AXIS WITH RAINFALL ENDING ONCE THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST
OF THE AREA. LATER IN THE EVENING AND THROUGH SUNRISE LOWS WILL
FALL TO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S ACROSS THE AREA. AS A RESULT
PATCHY TO WIDESPREAD FROST WILL DEVELOP...WITH SOME LOCATIONS WEST
OF HIGHWAY 27 POSSIBLY HAVING A HARD FREEZE. AT THIS TIME
LOCATIONS THAT WILL HAVE A HARD FREEZE ARE FAIRLY ISOLATED...BUT
THIS MAY CHANGE WITH LATER DATA.
TUESDAY DRY CONDITIONS RETURN BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AS
A RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. DURING THE NIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN COOL TO THE LOW TO MID 30S...ALLOWING PATCHY
TO AREAS OF FROST TO DEVELOP BY SUNRISE.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 115 AM MDT SUN OCT 26 2014
WEDNESDAY...SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS BEFORE EXITING
THE AREA BY SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.
850MB TEMPERATURES WARM ABOUT 9F FROM TUESDAYS VALUES SUPPORTING
HIGHS AROUND 70/LOW 70S ACROSS THE AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
30S WEST TO LOW 40S EAST.
THURSDAY...HIGH AMPLIFIED RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY TOWARD THE
AREA REACHING THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING. COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH LOWERING 850MB TEMPERATURES ABOUT 9F ACROSS THE
AREA SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. SFC RIDGE AXIS HOLDS
FIRM ACROSS THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE FURTHER WEST LOW LEVEL
FLOW VEERS TO THE SOUTHEAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S
BUT COULD SEE SLIGHTLY COLDER READINGS ACROSS THE EAST WHERE
PROXIMITY TO SFC HIGH AND LIGHT WINDS LASTS LONGER WHEN COMPARED TO
AREAS FURTHER WEST. HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
RIDGE AXIS APPROACHES. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.
FRIDAY...GFS/ECMWF IS BETTER AGREEMENT THIS MORNING WITH TIMING OF
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WHICH IS NOW FORECAST TO BE OVER THE AREA BY
DAYS END AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. AS THE SFC HIGH SLOWLY MOVES EAST
AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES. STRONGEST SOUTHEAST WINDS GENERALLY ALONG/WEST OF THE
COLORADO/KANSAS BORDER WHERE GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 30 MPH RANGE
POSSIBLE. GFS SHOWING 850MB TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO THURSDAYS VALUES
WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWING SOME COOLER AIR ACROSS THE AREA. BLENDING
THE TWO GIVES HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S (EAST TO WEST). LOWS
IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.
SATURDAY...LARGE UPPER TROUGH JUST COMING ASHORE ACROSS THE WEST IN
THE MORNING NEARLY REACHES THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY SUNRISE SUNDAY
MORNING PUTTING THE FORECAST AREA UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
STRONGER SFC WINDS MIGRATE TO THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA DURING
THE AFTERNOON AS SFC TROUGH MOVES INTO EASTERN COLORADO. PLENTIFUL
DRY AIR CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.
850MB TEMPERATURES WARM QUITE SIGNIFICANTLY AND WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S PER GFS SOLUTION...THE ECMWF QUITE A BIT COOLER
SO WILL GO WITH CURRENT FORECAST OF LOW TO MID 60S FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 546 AM MDT SUN OCT 26 2014
LIFR TO VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 12Z TAFS. VERY LOW VIS IS
BEING REPORTED AT KMCK IN THE FOG. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE IMPROVING AS A WEAK FRONT BRINGS
DRIER AIR IN FROM THE WEST. ONCE THE DRIER AIR MOVES IN CONDITIONS
SHOULD QUICKLY IMPROVE. MAIN CHALLENGE IS WHEN WILL CONDITIONS
START TO IMPROVE.
OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS
WILL DECLINE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON...BECOMING LIGHT BY THE
EARLY EVENING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 301 AM MDT SUN OCT 26 2014
THIS AFTERNOON NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO NEAR 30 MPH EAST OF
THE COLORADO BORDER AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL FALL TO NEAR 15
PERCENT. CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE THE WINDS WILL BE DECLINING AS THE
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FALL. AT THIS POINT WILL NOT BE ISSUING ANY
HIGHLIGHTS FOR FIRE WEATHER DUE TO NO OVERLAP OF THE LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WITH BREEZY WINDS.
MONDAY AFTERNOON NORTH WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 40 MPH AND RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL FALL TO AROUND 20 PERCENT WEST OF HIGHWAY 27.
CURRENTLY RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO FALL BELOW
15 PERCENT...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THIS IN CASE HAZARDOUS FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE REACHED.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR KSZ002-003.
CO...NONE.
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MDT /NOON CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
NEZ079>081.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DR
SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...JTL
FIRE WEATHER...JTL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1143 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1143 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014
UPDATED THE FORECAST PACKAGE TO REMOVE THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY.
TWEAKED HOURLY GRIDS WHILE AT IT TO MATCH UP WITH MOST CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1018 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014
QUICK UPDATE TO EXTEND THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY THIS MORNING. LOW
AUTUMN SUN ANGLE HAS ALLOWED DENSE FOG TO LINGER LONGER THAN
ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED. UPDATED HOURLY GRIDS FOR LATEST TRENDS AS
WELL. TRIED TO REFLECT THE LOWER RISE IN TEMPS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS FOR THOSE AREAS EXPERIENCING FOG AS WELL.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 725 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014
THE DENSE FOG APPEARS TO BE RATHER STEADY STATE ACROSS THE
CUMBERLAND VALLEY. BELIEVE THIS IS STILL ON TRACK TO BREAK UP AFTER
14Z. BASICALLY THIS UPDATE WAS MAINLY TO FINE TUNE THE TEMPERATURE
AND DEW POINT GRIDS BASED ON THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE
BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014
06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK COLD FRONT ON ITS WAY THROUGH EASTERN
KENTUCKY. MUCH DRIER AIR IS FOUND JUST TO THE NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY
AND TANTALIZINGLY CLOSE. HOWEVER...TO THE SOUTH HIGHER MOISTURE IS
FOUND AND WITH THE CLEAR SKIES THIS IS RESULTING IN AREAS OF FOG THAT
HAS BECOME LOCALLY DENSE. WILL BE GOING WITH A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH 14Z PER HRRR/GLAMP GUIDANCE. A RIDGE TO
VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT HAS DEVELOPED AGAIN TONIGHT WITH MANY
LOW SPOTS RUNNING IN THE UPPER 40S WHILE RIDGES ARE HOLDING IN THE
MID AND UPPER 50S. THE APPROACHING FRONT IS KEEPING THINGS A BIT MORE
STIRRED IN THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA SO THE DIFFERENCES ARE
SMALLER TO THE NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY. MEANWHILE...WINDS ARE
GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN THE VALLEYS WITH SOME NORTHWEST
BREEZES NOTED IN NORTHERN PARTS OF EAST KENTUCKY.
THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL TAKE A TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST AWAY
FROM THE AREA ALLOWING THE FAST FLOW TO REBOUND OVER THE TENNESSEE
AND OHIO VALLEYS TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND AND START THE NEW WEEK.
THUS...A MODERATELY STRONG RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER EAST KENTUCKY DURING
THE DAY MONDAY WHILE THE NEXT TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WITH ITS ENERGY ZIPPING NORTHEAST OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. AT LEAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...
THE RIDGE WILL KEEP THIS ENERGY AT BAY AND WELL AWAY FROM EASTERN
KENTUCKY. GIVEN THE MODEL SIMILARITIES...HAVE GONE WITH A GENERAL
BLEND OF THE MODELS WITH AN EMPHASIS ON THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM12
AND HRRR FOR WX DETAILS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE AREAS OF DENSE FOG OVER THE SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE CWA BURNING OFF BY MID MORNING...LEAVING BEHIND SUNNY
SKIES THAT WILL HELP GIVE US ANOTHER WARM DAY. FOR TONIGHT...MILDER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...BUT THERE SHOULD BE LESS IN THE WAY OF FOG
THOUGH...MORE LIMITED TO JUST THE DEEPER VALLEYS...WITH ANOTHER
HEALTHY RIDGE AND VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT DEVELOPING. MONDAY WILL BE
A VERY WARM DAY AS THE FRONT MOVES BACK NORTH THROUGH THE AREA AS A
WARM ONE AND JUST SOME EXTRA CLOUDS. FOR MONDAY WE CAN EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES NEAR RECORD LEVELS ALONG WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE
AND SOUTHWEST WINDS.
FOR THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS...USED THE CONSSHORT...AND ITS BC VERSION...
AS A STARTING POINT THROUGH THE FIRST 18 TO 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST
FOLLOWED BY THE SUPERBLEND. DID MAKE SOME CHANGES TO BETTER REFLECT
THE RIDGE AND VALLEY DIFFERENCES ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA AGAIN TONIGHT. POPS THOROUGH THE PERIOD REMAINS LOW...IN LINE
WITH THE VALUES FROM THE MOS GUIDANCE.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014
MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT FOR
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...AND REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST FROM FRIDAY ONWARD INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THUS...HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST REMAINS FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.
TO START THE PERIOD...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE PUSHING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH A SURFACE LOW TRACKING ACROSS MICHIGAN.
THIS WILL FORCE A SURFACE COLD FRONT EASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY ON TUESDAY. AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH SHELTERED
VALLEYS EXPECTED TO DECOUPLE...WE SHOULD SEE A GOOD RIDGE/VALLEY
SPLIT MONDAY NIGHT WITH VALLEYS POSSIBLY STILL REACHING THE 40S AND
RIDGES CLOSER TO 60. ECMWF HAS MOVED TOWARDS THE FASTER GFS WITH THE
FRONTAL TIMING...SO IT NOW LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
EASTERN KENTUCKY BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH CLOUDS INCREASING THROUGH
THE DAY. WENT WITH A STRONG GRADIENT IN POPS FROM EAST TO WEST AS IT
NOW LOOKS LIKE RAIN SHOULD MAKE IT WELL INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY BY 00Z
TUESDAY. PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST. GIVEN THE MOISTURE AND
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND THE INCREASED MODEL AGREEMENT...HAVE
OPTED TO INCREASE POPS TO CATEGORICAL. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME
WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON TUESDAY...SO A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE FASTER TREND
PUTTING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.
STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH CLEARING WE WILL SEE IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY AS THIS WILL PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE ON
WHERE HIGHS END UP IN THE AFTERNOON. MORE CLOUDS MAY KEEP
TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST MAY REFLECT.
HOWEVER...OPTING TO SIDE WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS...ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER A BIT. REGARDLESS...IT WILL STILL BE
SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER THAN THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...KEEPING THE WEATHER QUIET THROUGH THIS PERIOD. BY
FRIDAY...MODEL DIFFERENCES BECOME TOO GREAT TO DISCERN HOW THINGS
WILL UNFOLD. IT DOES LOOK LIKE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST AND BRING SUBSTANTIALLY COLDER AIR INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY
FOR NEXT WEEKEND. HAVE OPTED TO STAY WELL BELOW GUIDANCE NEXT
WEEKEND. IT LOOKS LIKE MOST SCENARIOS HAS THE AREA LOCKED IN A GOOD
DEAL OF CLOUD COVER UNDERNEATH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...AT LEAST
THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY. THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF NOW ARE BOTH
FAVORABLE FOR A HARD FREEZE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING.
THIS IS OUTSIDE OF THE HWO PERIOD...SO FOR NOW WILL JUST PLAN TO GO
WITH SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY MORNING.
ALSO...OPTING TO GO WITH SOME LOW POPS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY. THE LATEST ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD SUPPORT SOME SNOW ON THE
HIGH TERRAIN SATURDAY MORNING. LOOKS LIKE A CHILLY WEEKEND FOR
HALLOWEEN FESTIVITIES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 740 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014
DENSE FOG AS ENGULFED THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY TAF SITES WITH VLIFR
CONDITIONS. THESE SHOULD START TO IMPROVE AFTER 14Z. FOR THIS HAVE
INCLUDED A TEMPO DURING THE TRANSITION TO VFR. ONCE THE FOG BURNS
OFF...EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT GENERALLY FROM THE NORTHWEST.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RAY
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
1114 AM EDT Sun Oct 26 2014
...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1114 AM EDT Sun Oct 26 2014
Area webcams and surface observations have shown improvement in
visibilities over the past hour. Have allowed the Dense Fog Advisory
to expire at 11 AM. A few lingering patches of fog will persist
through midday, but overall conditions have improved enough to let
the headline go.
Otherwise, a pleasant and sunny day is in store.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday)...
Issued at 310 AM EDT Sun Oct 25 2014
...Dense Fog This Morning...Near Record Warmth Monday...
The near term forecast focus has been on locally dense fog that has
developed across southern Kentucky this morning thanks to
light/variable surface winds and a relatively moist air mass.
Dewpoints range from the middle to upper 50s ahead of a weak surface
boundary that lies to the north. Until this boundary pushes through
the area later this morning, conditions will be ideal for radiation
fog. The HRRR model has been capturing the fog very well and shows
it lingering through mid morning before burning off. As such, a
dense fog advisory has been issued for the southern part of the
forecast area through mid morning to account for the expected
impacts due to locally 1/4 mile visibilities or less.
Once morning fog burns off, plan on a very pleasant day as high
pressure will be the dominant weather feature. Sunny skies, light
winds and above normal temperatures will be the rule. Compared to
yesterday, highs will be a few degrees lower, thanks to some cooler
air aloft that will work in from the northeast. Highs should still
top out around 70 across the northeast forecast area to middle 70s
in the southwest.
The upper level pattern will then transition from zonal to
southwesterly, paving the way for near record warmth for much of the
Ohio River valley Monday. 26.00z model guidance remains very
consistent with past model cycles showing that as a strong shortwave
trough advances across the northern Plains, the ensuing
southwesterly flow will bring a surge of +16 to +17C 850 mb air
across the region. Soundings show mixing up to around 850 mb, so
this supports highs in the lower to middle 80s. With near full
sunshine, kept forecast highs on the warm side of guidance. 26.00z
850 mb temperature standardized anomalies vary from +2 to nearly
+2.5 SD, which increases confidence in approaching records for
Monday. It will also be a breezy day with winds gusting to 30 mph at
times across much of the area.
Below are the records for Monday and Monday night.
Record Max Oct 27 Record Warm Low Oct 28
Louisville 84 (1940) 64 (1991 and 1984)
Lexington 87 (1940) 64 (1984)
Bowling Green 87 (1919) 65 (1984)
Frankfort 89 (1940) 61 (1899)
.LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)...
Issued at 315 AM EDT Sun Oct 26 2014
After a warm and breezy night Monday night with lows generally in
the 58-63 degree range, a cold front will advance into the region on
Tuesday. Widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms will
accompany the front, with just about everybody standing a chance at
getting some rain. The front will be losing some of its punch as it
enters the Ohio Valley and the best dynamics will be to our north
across IN/OH, but we`ll still have a chance at some thunder here
coincident with a narrow band of surface based instability around
mid day. High temperatures should be in the 70s with winds gusting
to around 20 or 25 mph (maybe some higher gusts in thunderstorms).
Tuesday night the front will push off to the east and our showers
will taper off from northwest to southeast. There could still be a
few left over rumbles of thunder in the Lake Cumberland region
during the evening hours. General rainfall totals are progged in
the quarter to half inch range, though amounts will vary with the
convective nature of the precipitation. Overnight lows behind the
front will be in the 40s.
During the remainder of the week several waves will pass overhead in
progressive WNW flow, but a lack of deep moisture for these waves to
work with will lead to a mostly dry forecast for now. Daily highs
will decrease from around 60 on Wednesday to around 50 (probably 40s
in the Blue Grass) on Saturday as Canadian high pressure dives SSE
right into the Ohio Valley by the weekend. Morning lows on Saturday
should be around the freezing mark, and below freezing Saturday
night.
&&
.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 620 AM EDT Sun Oct 26 2014
1/4sm fog will continue to impact BWG through around 13z this
morning, then slowly erode as drier air finally makes its way south.
High pressure and light/variable winds will then be the rule for the
afternoon, providing VFR conditions to all TAF sites. Late tonight,
numerical guidance is once again suggesting that BWG will go down in
fog but with an increasing southwesterly flow /20 kts at 500 feet/
feel the setup is not as favorable for fog. Another plausible
scenario, which is reflected in some of the forecast models, is that
the low stratus currently across western TN and southwest KY will
not fully mix out today and then advect toward BWG later tonight
with the southwest wind push. Not very confident in this scenario
either but brought in a scattered MVFR cloud deck at BWG to suggest
the possibility.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Update.........BJS
Short Term.....ZBT
Long Term......13
Aviation.......ZBT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1018 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1018 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014
QUICK UPDATE TO EXTEND THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY THIS MORNING. LOW
AUTUMN SUN ANGLE HAS ALLOWED DENSE FOG TO LINGER LONGER THAN
ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED. UPDATED HOURLY GRIDS FOR LATEST TRENDS AS
WELL. TRIED TO REFLECT THE LOWER RISE IN TEMPS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS FOR THOSE AREAS EXPERIENCING FOG AS WELL.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 725 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014
THE DENSE FOG APPEARS TO BE RATHER STEADY STATE ACROSS THE
CUMBERLAND VALLEY. BELIEVE THIS IS STILL ON TRACK TO BREAK UP AFTER
14Z. BASICALLY THIS UPDATE WAS MAINLY TO FINE TUNE THE TEMPERATURE
AND DEW POINT GRIDS BASED ON THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE
BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014
06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK COLD FRONT ON ITS WAY THROUGH EASTERN
KENTUCKY. MUCH DRIER AIR IS FOUND JUST TO THE NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY
AND TANTALIZINGLY CLOSE. HOWEVER...TO THE SOUTH HIGHER MOISTURE IS
FOUND AND WITH THE CLEAR SKIES THIS IS RESULTING IN AREAS OF FOG THAT
HAS BECOME LOCALLY DENSE. WILL BE GOING WITH A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH 14Z PER HRRR/GLAMP GUIDANCE. A RIDGE TO
VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT HAS DEVELOPED AGAIN TONIGHT WITH MANY
LOW SPOTS RUNNING IN THE UPPER 40S WHILE RIDGES ARE HOLDING IN THE
MID AND UPPER 50S. THE APPROACHING FRONT IS KEEPING THINGS A BIT MORE
STIRRED IN THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA SO THE DIFFERENCES ARE
SMALLER TO THE NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY. MEANWHILE...WINDS ARE
GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN THE VALLEYS WITH SOME NORTHWEST
BREEZES NOTED IN NORTHERN PARTS OF EAST KENTUCKY.
THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL TAKE A TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST AWAY
FROM THE AREA ALLOWING THE FAST FLOW TO REBOUND OVER THE TENNESSEE
AND OHIO VALLEYS TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND AND START THE NEW WEEK.
THUS...A MODERATELY STRONG RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER EAST KENTUCKY DURING
THE DAY MONDAY WHILE THE NEXT TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WITH ITS ENERGY ZIPPING NORTHEAST OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. AT LEAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...
THE RIDGE WILL KEEP THIS ENERGY AT BAY AND WELL AWAY FROM EASTERN
KENTUCKY. GIVEN THE MODEL SIMILARITIES...HAVE GONE WITH A GENERAL
BLEND OF THE MODELS WITH AN EMPHASIS ON THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM12
AND HRRR FOR WX DETAILS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE AREAS OF DENSE FOG OVER THE SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE CWA BURNING OFF BY MID MORNING...LEAVING BEHIND SUNNY
SKIES THAT WILL HELP GIVE US ANOTHER WARM DAY. FOR TONIGHT...MILDER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...BUT THERE SHOULD BE LESS IN THE WAY OF FOG
THOUGH...MORE LIMITED TO JUST THE DEEPER VALLEYS...WITH ANOTHER
HEALTHY RIDGE AND VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT DEVELOPING. MONDAY WILL BE
A VERY WARM DAY AS THE FRONT MOVES BACK NORTH THROUGH THE AREA AS A
WARM ONE AND JUST SOME EXTRA CLOUDS. FOR MONDAY WE CAN EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES NEAR RECORD LEVELS ALONG WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE
AND SOUTHWEST WINDS.
FOR THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS...USED THE CONSSHORT...AND ITS BC VERSION...
AS A STARTING POINT THROUGH THE FIRST 18 TO 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST
FOLLOWED BY THE SUPERBLEND. DID MAKE SOME CHANGES TO BETTER REFLECT
THE RIDGE AND VALLEY DIFFERENCES ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA AGAIN TONIGHT. POPS THOROUGH THE PERIOD REMAINS LOW...IN LINE
WITH THE VALUES FROM THE MOS GUIDANCE.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014
MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT FOR
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...AND REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST FROM FRIDAY ONWARD INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THUS...HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST REMAINS FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.
TO START THE PERIOD...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE PUSHING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH A SURFACE LOW TRACKING ACROSS MICHIGAN.
THIS WILL FORCE A SURFACE COLD FRONT EASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY ON TUESDAY. AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH SHELTERED
VALLEYS EXPECTED TO DECOUPLE...WE SHOULD SEE A GOOD RIDGE/VALLEY
SPLIT MONDAY NIGHT WITH VALLEYS POSSIBLY STILL REACHING THE 40S AND
RIDGES CLOSER TO 60. ECMWF HAS MOVED TOWARDS THE FASTER GFS WITH THE
FRONTAL TIMING...SO IT NOW LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
EASTERN KENTUCKY BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH CLOUDS INCREASING THROUGH
THE DAY. WENT WITH A STRONG GRADIENT IN POPS FROM EAST TO WEST AS IT
NOW LOOKS LIKE RAIN SHOULD MAKE IT WELL INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY BY 00Z
TUESDAY. PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST. GIVEN THE MOISTURE AND
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND THE INCREASED MODEL AGREEMENT...HAVE
OPTED TO INCREASE POPS TO CATEGORICAL. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME
WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON TUESDAY...SO A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE FASTER TREND
PUTTING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.
STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH CLEARING WE WILL SEE IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY AS THIS WILL PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE ON
WHERE HIGHS END UP IN THE AFTERNOON. MORE CLOUDS MAY KEEP
TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST MAY REFLECT.
HOWEVER...OPTING TO SIDE WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS...ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER A BIT. REGARDLESS...IT WILL STILL BE
SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER THAN THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...KEEPING THE WEATHER QUIET THROUGH THIS PERIOD. BY
FRIDAY...MODEL DIFFERENCES BECOME TOO GREAT TO DISCERN HOW THINGS
WILL UNFOLD. IT DOES LOOK LIKE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST AND BRING SUBSTANTIALLY COLDER AIR INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY
FOR NEXT WEEKEND. HAVE OPTED TO STAY WELL BELOW GUIDANCE NEXT
WEEKEND. IT LOOKS LIKE MOST SCENARIOS HAS THE AREA LOCKED IN A GOOD
DEAL OF CLOUD COVER UNDERNEATH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...AT LEAST
THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY. THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF NOW ARE BOTH
FAVORABLE FOR A HARD FREEZE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING.
THIS IS OUTSIDE OF THE HWO PERIOD...SO FOR NOW WILL JUST PLAN TO GO
WITH SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY MORNING.
ALSO...OPTING TO GO WITH SOME LOW POPS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY. THE LATEST ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD SUPPORT SOME SNOW ON THE
HIGH TERRAIN SATURDAY MORNING. LOOKS LIKE A CHILLY WEEKEND FOR
HALLOWEEN FESTIVITIES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 740 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014
DENSE FOG AS ENGULFED THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY TAF SITES WITH VLIFR
CONDITIONS. THESE SHOULD START TO IMPROVE AFTER 14Z. FOR THIS HAVE
INCLUDED A TEMPO DURING THE TRANSITION TO VFR. ONCE THE FOG BURNS
OFF...EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT GENERALLY FROM THE NORTHWEST.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR KYZ068-069-
079-080-083>088-116-117.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RAY
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
740 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 725 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014
THE DENSE FOG APPEARS TO BE RATHER STEADY STATE ACROSS THE
CUMBERLAND VALLEY. BELIEVE THIS IS STILL ON TRACK TO BREAK UP AFTER
14Z. BASICALLY THIS UPDATE WAS MAINLY TO FINE TUNE THE TEMPERATURE
AND DEWPOINT GRIDS BASED ON THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE
BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014
06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK COLD FRONT ON ITS WAY THROUGH EASTERN
KENTUCKY. MUCH DRIER AIR IS FOUND JUST TO THE NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY
AND TANTALIZINGLY CLOSE. HOWEVER...TO THE SOUTH HIGHER MOISTURE IS
FOUND AND WITH THE CLEAR SKIES THIS IS RESULTING IN AREAS OF FOG THAT
HAS BECOME LOCALLY DENSE. WILL BE GOING WITH A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH 14Z PER HRRR/GLAMP GUIDANCE. A RIDGE TO
VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT HAS DEVELOPED AGAIN TONIGHT WITH MANY
LOW SPOTS RUNNING IN THE UPPER 40S WHILE RIDGES ARE HOLDING IN THE
MID AND UPPER 50S. THE APPROACHING FRONT IS KEEPING THINGS A BIT MORE
STIRRED IN THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA SO THE DIFFERENCES ARE
SMALLER TO THE NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY. MEANWHILE...WINDS ARE
GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN THE VALLEYS WITH SOME NORTHWEST
BREEZES NOTED IN NORTHERN PARTS OF EAST KENTUCKY.
THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL TAKE A TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST AWAY
FROM THE AREA ALLOWING THE FAST FLOW TO REBOUND OVER THE TENNESSEE
AND OHIO VALLEYS TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND AND START THE NEW WEEK.
THUS...A MODERATELY STRONG RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER EAST KENTUCKY DURING
THE DAY MONDAY WHILE THE NEXT TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WITH ITS ENERGY ZIPPING NORTHEAST OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. AT LEAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...
THE RIDGE WILL KEEP THIS ENERGY AT BAY AND WELL AWAY FROM EASTERN
KENTUCKY. GIVEN THE MODEL SIMILARITIES...HAVE GONE WITH A GENERAL
BLEND OF THE MODELS WITH AN EMPHASIS ON THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM12
AND HRRR FOR WX DETAILS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE AREAS OF DENSE FOG OVER THE SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE CWA BURNING OFF BY MID MORNING...LEAVING BEHIND SUNNY
SKIES THAT WILL HELP GIVE US ANOTHER WARM DAY. FOR TONIGHT...MILDER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...BUT THERE SHOULD BE LESS IN THE WAY OF FOG
THOUGH...MORE LIMITED TO JUST THE DEEPER VALLEYS...WITH ANOTHER
HEALTHY RIDGE AND VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT DEVELOPING. MONDAY WILL BE
A VERY WARM DAY AS THE FRONT MOVES BACK NORTH THROUGH THE AREA AS A
WARM ONE AND JUST SOME EXTRA CLOUDS. FOR MONDAY WE CAN EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES NEAR RECORD LEVELS ALONG WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE
AND SOUTHWEST WINDS.
FOR THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS...USED THE CONSSHORT...AND ITS BC VERSION...
AS A STARTING POINT THROUGH THE FIRST 18 TO 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST
FOLLOWED BY THE SUPERBLEND. DID MAKE SOME CHANGES TO BETTER REFLECT
THE RIDGE AND VALLEY DIFFERENCES ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA AGAIN TONIGHT. POPS THOROUGH THE PERIOD REMAINS LOW...IN LINE
WITH THE VALUES FROM THE MOS GUIDANCE.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014
MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT FOR
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...AND REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST FROM FRIDAY ONWARD INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THUS...HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST REMAINS FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.
TO START THE PERIOD...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE PUSHING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH A SURFACE LOW TRACKING ACROSS MICHIGAN.
THIS WILL FORCE A SURFACE COLD FRONT EASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY ON TUESDAY. AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH SHELTERED
VALLEYS EXPECTED TO DECOUPLE...WE SHOULD SEE A GOOD RIDGE/VALLEY
SPLIT MONDAY NIGHT WITH VALLEYS POSSIBLY STILL REACHING THE 40S AND
RIDGES CLOSER TO 60. ECMWF HAS MOVED TOWARDS THE FASTER GFS WITH THE
FRONTAL TIMING...SO IT NOW LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
EASTERN KENTUCKY BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH CLOUDS INCREASING THROUGH
THE DAY. WENT WITH A STRONG GRADIENT IN POPS FROM EAST TO WEST AS IT
NOW LOOKS LIKE RAIN SHOULD MAKE IT WELL INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY BY 00Z
TUESDAY. PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST. GIVEN THE MOISTURE AND
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND THE INCREASED MODEL AGREEMENT...HAVE
OPTED TO INCREASE POPS TO CATEGORICAL. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME
WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON TUESDAY...SO A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE FASTER TREND
PUTTING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.
STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH CLEARING WE WILL SEE IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY AS THIS WILL PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE ON
WHERE HIGHS END UP IN THE AFTERNOON. MORE CLOUDS MAY KEEP
TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST MAY REFLECT.
HOWEVER...OPTING TO SIDE WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS...ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER A BIT. REGARDLESS...IT WILL STILL BE
SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER THAN THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...KEEPING THE WEATHER QUIET THROUGH THIS PERIOD. BY
FRIDAY...MODEL DIFFERENCES BECOME TOO GREAT TO DISCERN HOW THINGS
WILL UNFOLD. IT DOES LOOK LIKE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST AND BRING SUBSTANTIALLY COLDER AIR INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY
FOR NEXT WEEKEND. HAVE OPTED TO STAY WELL BELOW GUIDANCE NEXT
WEEKEND. IT LOOKS LIKE MOST SCENARIOS HAS THE AREA LOCKED IN A GOOD
DEAL OF CLOUD COVER UNDERNEATH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...AT LEAST
THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY. THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF NOW ARE BOTH
FAVORABLE FOR A HARD FREEZE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING.
THIS IS OUTSIDE OF THE HWO PERIOD...SO FOR NOW WILL JUST PLAN TO GO
WITH SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY MORNING.
ALSO...OPTING TO GO WITH SOME LOW POPS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY. THE LATEST ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD SUPPORT SOME SNOW ON THE
HIGH TERRAIN SATURDAY MORNING. LOOKS LIKE A CHILLY WEEKEND FOR
HALLOWEEN FESTIVITIES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 740 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014
DENSE FOG AS ENGULFED THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY TAF SITES WITH VLIFR
CONDITIONS. THESE SHOULD START TO IMPROVE AFTER 14Z. FOR THIS HAVE
INCLUDED A TEMPO DURING THE TRANSITION TO VFR. ONCE THE FOG BURNS
OFF...EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT GENERALLY FROM THE NORTHWEST.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR KYZ068-069-
079-080-083>088-116-117.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
638 AM EDT Sun Oct 26 2014
...Updated Aviation and Forecast Discussions...
...Forecast Update...
Issued at 635 AM EDT Sun Oct 26 2014
No major changes to forecast in the near term regarding dense fog
advisory. Observations continue to show that visibilities remain
less than 1/4 mile across the southern tier of the forecast area.
The drier air mass is slowly working its way south, which will help
to improve conditions. Based on the latest timing, it will take a
couple more hours, so the dense fog advisory still looks good
through 9 AM EDT.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday)...
Issued at 310 AM EDT Sun Oct 25 2014
...Dense Fog This Morning...Near Record Warmth Monday...
The near term forecast focus has been on locally dense fog that has
developed across southern Kentucky this morning thanks to
light/variable surface winds and a relatively moist air mass.
Dewpoints range from the middle to upper 50s ahead of a weak surface
boundary that lies to the north. Until this boundary pushes through
the area later this morning, conditions will be ideal for radiation
fog. The HRRR model has been capturing the fog very well and shows
it lingering through mid morning before burning off. As such, a
dense fog advisory has been issued for the southern part of the
forecast area through mid morning to account for the expected
impacts due to locally 1/4 mile visibilities or less.
Once morning fog burns off, plan on a very pleasant day as high
pressure will be the dominant weather feature. Sunny skies, light
winds and above normal temperatures will be the rule. Compared to
yesterday, highs will be a few degrees lower, thanks to some cooler
air aloft that will work in from the northeast. Highs should still
top out around 70 across the northeast forecast area to middle 70s
in the southwest.
The upper level pattern will then transition from zonal to
southwesterly, paving the way for near record warmth for much of the
Ohio River valley Monday. 26.00z model guidance remains very
consistent with past model cycles showing that as a strong shortwave
trough advances across the northern Plains, the ensuing
southwesterly flow will bring a surge of +16 to +17C 850 mb air
across the region. Soundings show mixing up to around 850 mb, so
this supports highs in the lower to middle 80s. With near full
sunshine, kept forecast highs on the warm side of guidance. 26.00z
850 mb temperature standardized anomalies vary from +2 to nearly
+2.5 SD, which increases confidence in approaching records for
Monday. It will also be a breezy day with winds gusting to 30 mph at
times across much of the area.
Below are the records for Monday and Monday night.
Record Max Oct 27 Record Warm Low Oct 28
Louisville 84 (1940) 64 (1991 and 1984)
Lexington 87 (1940) 64 (1984)
Bowling Green 87 (1919) 65 (1984)
Frankfort 89 (1940) 61 (1899)
.LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)...
Issued at 315 AM EDT Sun Oct 26 2014
After a warm and breezy night Monday night with lows generally in
the 58-63 degree range, a cold front will advance into the region on
Tuesday. Widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms will
accompany the front, with just about everybody standing a chance at
getting some rain. The front will be losing some of its punch as it
enters the Ohio Valley and the best dynamics will be to our north
across IN/OH, but we`ll still have a chance at some thunder here
coincident with a narrow band of surface based instability around
mid day. High temperatures should be in the 70s with winds gusting
to around 20 or 25 mph (maybe some higher gusts in thunderstorms).
Tuesday night the front will push off to the east and our showers
will taper off from northwest to southeast. There could still be a
few left over rumbles of thunder in the Lake Cumberland region
during the evening hours. General rainfall totals are progged in
the quarter to half inch range, though amounts will vary with the
convective nature of the precipitation. Overnight lows behind the
front will be in the 40s.
During the remainder of the week several waves will pass overhead in
progressive WNW flow, but a lack of deep moisture for these waves to
work with will lead to a mostly dry forecast for now. Daily highs
will decrease from around 60 on Wednesday to around 50 (probably 40s
in the Blue Grass) on Saturday as Canadian high pressure dives SSE
right into the Ohio Valley by the weekend. Morning lows on Saturday
should be around the freezing mark, and below freezing Saturday
night.
&&
.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 620 AM EDT Sun Oct 26 2014
1/4sm fog will continue to impact BWG through around 13z this
morning, then slowly erode as drier air finally makes its way south.
High pressure and light/variable winds will then be the rule for the
afternoon, providing VFR conditions to all TAF sites. Late tonight,
numerical guidance is once again suggesting that BWG will go down in
fog but with an increasing southwesterly flow /20 kts at 500 feet/
feel the setup is not as favorable for fog. Another plausible
scenario, which is reflected in some of the forecast models, is that
the low stratus currently across western TN and southwest KY will
not fully mix out today and then advect toward BWG later tonight
with the southwest wind push. Not very confident in this scenario
either but a MVFR cloud deck may happen at BWG after 06z tonight.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 10 AM EDT /9 AM CDT/ this morning FOR
KYZ026-027-061>067-070>078-081-082.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Update.........ZBT
Short Term.....ZBT
Long Term......13
Aviation.......ZBT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
637 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014
UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS
MORNING. LEE SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WITH A WARM
WARM EXTENDING EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS INTO CENTRAL
MISSOURI. SOME 4500` STRATOCU HAD DEVELOPED IN NORTHWEST
MISSOURI...AND THIS MOIST AXIS WILL BE EAST OF OUR AREA. MAIN
CONCERN HAS BEEN LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTHWEST AND
WHETHER ANY STRATUS AND/OR FOG WOULD DEVELOP WITHIN AN AREA OF
STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. NO CLOUDS HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS YET...AND LATEST RAP MODEL
WOULD SUGGEST THAT NOTHING WILL DEVELOP. HRRR SUGGESTS THAT
DEVELOPMENT MAY HOLD OFF FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS...DEVELOPING IN
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND THEN EXTEND SOUTHEAST INTO WEST CENTRAL
MISSOURI. THAT STILL SEEMS LIKELY...BUT WILL BE BACKING OFF
PREVIOUS FORECAST OF EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS...FOG AND EVEN DRIZZLE
IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. BELIEVE THE FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE AREA
THROUGH THE DAY...BUT NOT SURE IT WILL MAKE ALL THE WAY THROUGH.
THUS...WILL KEEP LOWER 70S IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...BUT WILL WARM
TO THE MID 70S ALONG THE I80 CORRIDOR AND FEEL OPTIMISTIC WE CAN
STILL REACH THE LOWER 80S IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. RECORD AT KLNK
TODAY IS 86...DON`T THINK WE`LL MAKE THAT AND SHOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES SHORT. SURFACE DEWPOINTS SHOULD RISE INTO THE 50S AND EVEN
LOWER 60S IN SOUTHEAST NE/SOUTHWEST IA TODAY ALSO GIVING US A
BRIEF RETURN TO SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID CONDITIONS THAN WE`VE HAD
RECENTLY.
UPPER TROUGH PUSHING ONTO THE WEST COAST MOVES THROUGH THE ROCKIES
AND ONTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY...WHICH DRAGS THE SURFACE
TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE AREA AS A COLD
FRONT. PRECIP SHOULD STAY WEST/NORTHWEST OF THE AREA TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...WITH WEAKENING WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND DEWPOINTS
REMAINING ELEVATED...WLD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME PATCHY FOG
DEVELOP ALONG/EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER OVERNIGHT AS WELL.
COLD FRONT ARRIVES MONDAY WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASING
THROUGH THE DAY. THE REAL COOL AIR LAGS BEHIND THE FRONT UNTIL
TUESDAY. STILL LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY AS WELL...WHICH COULD LINGER ACROSS
WESTERN IOWA MONDAY EVENING.
COOLER TEMPS PREVAIL FOR TUESDAY WITH BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
WITH MID TO UPPER 50S...WHICH WOULD FINALLY BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014
THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS QUIET...WITH NORMAL OR JUST SLIGHTLY
BELOW TEMPS. THERE STILL IS A VERY WEAK WAVE THAT MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE REMAIN
JUST NORTH OF THE REGION. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN HINTING AT A SMALL
SPRINKLE CHANCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT PROBABLY NOT STRONG ENOUGH
TO MENTION YET. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY COULD BE WELL BELOW NORMAL...
BUT RECOVERY BACK TO NEAR NORMAL OR EVEN ABOVE IS POSSIBLE BY
SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME LOW-LEVEL
WIND SHEAR IS STILL LIKELY THROUGH A COUPLE MORE HOURS AT
KOMA/KLNK BEFORE THE LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA TONIGHT SWITCHING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST ALONG WITH
AN INCREASE IN SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
950 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MIGRATE OVERHEAD THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AND
WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFFSHORE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...APPROACHING RECORD HIGHS TUESDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND STALL JUST OFF THE
COAST THURSDAY. AFTER A PROLONGED DRY SPELL...THERE IS A CHANCE
FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL MID WEEK...POSSIBLY LINGERING AT THE COAST
INTO FRIDAY. MUCH COLDER AIR IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE AREA NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 950 AM SUNDAY...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING CLEAR
SKIES...AND THE 12 UTC UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING VERY DRY
AIR ABOVE THE SURFACE THE MORNING.
WITH THE THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THE HRRR 12 UTC IS SHOWING A
SEA-BREEZE DEVELOPING BUT REMAINING NEAR/TRAPPED NEAR THE COAST MAINLY
FROM CAROLINA BEACH SOUTHWARD.
THE DRY AIR TODAY AND THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVING TOWARD THE
AREA WILL ALLOW THE 2-METER TEMPERATURES TO WARM QUICKLY INTO THE
UPPER 70S OVER SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND THE LOWER 80S OVER
NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA. WITH THE SEA-BREEZE TRAPPED NEAR THE
COAST TEMPERATURES AT THE IMMEDIATE BEACHES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM
ONLY IN THE MIDDLE 70S.
OVERNIGHT...WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVERHEAD...NO CLOUD
COVE...AND LIGHT WINDS AN EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT IS
IN ORDER. MINIMUM 2-METER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S RIGHT AROUND SUNRISE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...GORGEOUS WEATHER TO CONTINUE THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK...WITH CONDITIONS MORE APPROPRIATE FOR LATE SUMMER THAN
MID-FALL ANTICIPATED. SURFACE HIGH OVERHEAD MONDAY MORNING WILL MOVE
TO A POSITION EAST OF BERMUDA ON TUESDAY...CREATING A SUMMER-LIKE
BERMUDA RIDGE TYPE SETUP. THIS SURFACE HIGH IS DRIVEN BY A
STRENGTHENING RIDGE ALOFT...WHICH WILL ALSO MOVE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH
THE PERIOD...BUT MAINTAIN ANOMALOUSLY WARM THICKNESSES LOCALLY. THE
RAISED HEIGHTS COMBINED WITH WARM RETURN FLOW WILL DRIVE TEMPS TO
WELL ABOVE NORMAL BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WIDESPREAD 80 DEGREE
READINGS ARE EXPECTED AWAY FROM THE COAST ON MONDAY...WITH EVEN
WARMER MAX TEMPS FORECAST FOR TUESDAY WHEN RECORD HIGHS MAY BE
APPROACHED (86 AT FLORENCE). TEMPS NEAR THE COAST WILL BE MUCH
COOLER THANKS TO WHAT WILL LIKELY BECOME A STRONG SEA BREEZE AS
LAND/OCEAN TEMP DIFFERENCES EXCEED 10 DEGREES. MINS WILL ALSO BE
QUITE WARM BOTH NIGHTS...LOW/MID 50S MONDAY NIGHT...AND EVEN A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN THAT TUESDAY NIGHT. NO PRECIP THROUGH THE
PERIOD...AND EVEN CLOUD COVER WILL BE MINIMAL AT WORST.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...ENJOY THE WARMTH ON WEDNESDAY...BECAUSE THE
SUMMER LIKE WEATHER WILL COME TO AN ABRUPT HALT THURSDAY.
UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE AWAY ON WEDNESDAY...TO BE REPLACED BY A
LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. TWO
DISTINCT SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE BASE OF THIS
TROUGH...THE FIRST ON THURSDAY...THE SECOND LATE FRIDAY. THE FIRST
ONE THURSDAY...WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH IS
NOW PROGGED TO BE A BIT FASTER THANKS TO A LESS AMPLIFIED /FASTER/
MID-LEVEL FLOW. FRONT WILL CROSS THURSDAY MORNING...AND WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. OVERALL QPF STILL APPEARS TO
BE RATHER LIMITED THANKS TO...AS THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER
NOTED...ONLY A "THIN RIBBON" OF MOISTURE AND WEAK THETA-E RIDGING.
STILL...CHC POP FOR THURSDAY WILL REMAIN.
THIS FRONT WILL STALL JUST OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS
THE SECOND SHORTWAVE DIVES INTO THE TROUGH. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
INTO WHETHER ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL PERSIST FRIDAY TO KEEP SHOWERS
LOCALLY...BUT THE FRONT IN THE VICINITY COMBINED WITH SOME FORCING
AS THE SECOND SHORTWAVE MOVES OVERHEAD...WILL AT LEAST PROVIDE A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTN...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COAST. THERE SHOULD BE RAPID DRYING BEHIND THIS SECOND IMPULSE AS IT
DRIVES THE FRONT WELL FROM THE COAST...AND HALLOWEEN FESTIVITIES
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY...BUT COOL.
THEREAFTER A BIG COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED AS STRONG NEGATIVE ANOMALIES
DEVELOP ALOFT DRIVING INTENSE COLD ADVECTION ACROSS THE EAST. THE
FACT THAT IT WILL BE SO WARM EARLIER IN THE WEEK WILL MAKE IT FEEL
EVEN COLDER. EXTENDED MOS IS ALREADY 5-10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO
NORMS...A SURE SIGNAL OF THE VERY COLD AIR ANTICIPATED. THE 25/12Z
ECMWF SURE IS INTERESTING...BUT IS DISREGARDED ATTM FOR ITS
EXTREME (AND NEW) BEHAVIOR. THUS THE UPCOMING WEEKEND LOOKS COLD
AND DRY.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...VFR EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THIS TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE/DRYER AIR BUILDS INTO THE TERMINALS. CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED...
BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRAY SC THROUGH NOON. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT WSW-WNW EARLY...BECOMING NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KT AT ALL
TERMINALS 14-15Z AS THE INVERSION BREAKS. COULD BE A FEW GUSTS TO
20KT THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT THE GENERAL TREND IS FOR WIND
SPEEDS TO DECREASE. EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME LGT/VRBL BY THIS
EVENING.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT STALLS OFF THE COAST.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 950 AM SUNDAY...THE NORTHWEST WINDS ARE DECREASING THIS
MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT SHIFTS OVERHEAD. THE BUOY ARE
CURRENTLY FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH 10 TO 15
KNOTS STILL BLOWING AT 20 MILES OFF THE COAST. SEAS ARE RUNNING
AROUND 2 TO 3 FEET. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST TO MOVE OVER
THE WATERS WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AND SEAS WILL SETTLE OUT
AT 2 FEET OVER LESS OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE NEARLY OVERHEAD DURING
MONDAY...BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY...AND THEN MOVING WELL
EAST OF THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS CREATES A VERY WEAK GRADIENT
MONDAY WITH VARIABLE WINDS...ALTHOUGH A PRONOUNCED SEA BREEZE IS
EXPECTED WITH SE WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WITHIN THE NEAR-SHORE WATERS.
ELSEWHERE...WINDS WILL BE AROUND 5 KTS...VEERING FROM NE TO SOUTH
THROUGH THE DAY. AS RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS TUESDAY...WINDS WILL RISE
TO 10 KTS ACROSS ALL THE WATERS...WITH A SW DIRECTION PREDOMINANT.
THESE LIGHT WINDS WILL KEEP WAVE HEIGHTS LOW...1-2 FT
MONDAY...BECOMING 2-3 FT ONLY VERY LATE TUESDAY.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...COLD FRONT CROSSING THE WATERS EARLY THURSDAY
CREATES TWO DISTINCT REGIMES IN THE EXTENDED. IN THE PRE-FRONTAL
AIRMASS ON WEDNESDAY...SW WINDS WILL BE 10-15 KTS...CREATING 2-3 FT
SEAS. FRONT WILL CROSS FROM NW TO SE EARLY THURSDAY...WITH A
DECREASE IN SPEED AND A QUICK SHIFT TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION. THESE
NORTH WINDS OF AROUND 10 KTS WILL PERSIST THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. ALTHOUGH WAVE HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE AROUND 2 FT ON
THURSDAY...A CONFUSED SPECTRUM JUST BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS
EXPECTED AS NORTHERLY WINDS ENVELOP THE WATERS.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HAWKINS
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...MRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
649 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014
ONE MORE DAY OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION. GRADIENT INCREASES SO IT WILL BE A BREEZY DAY THOUGH...WITH
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 30 MPH. THIS WIND COMBINED
WITH LOW HUMIDITY...WILL RESULT IN VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND ADJACENT NORTHWEST IOWA. FEEL
LIKE RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL GENERALLY STAY HIGH ENOUGH TO PREVENT
ANY RED FLAG CRITERIA.
STILL UNCERTAINTY ON STRATUS DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING. LOW LEVELS
REMAIN QUITE DRY...HOWEVER MODELS SHOW A NARROW CORRIDOR OF
MOISTENING AROUND 850 MB. NAM AND GFS SATURATE THIS
LEVEL...RESULTING IN A CORRIDOR OF STRATUS MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE CWA. RAP AND HRRR STAY SHORT OF SATURATING THEY LAYER...AND THUS
KEEP IT SUNNY. AT THIS TIME NO REAL WAY TO TELL WHICH IS
CORRECT...SO WILL GO WITH A COMPROMISE AND MONITOR TRENDS OVER THE
COMING HOURS. GIVEN THE LOWER SURFACE DEWPOINTS THAN ORIGINALLY
FORECAST...CONFIDENCE IS HOWEVER GROWING THAT DIURNALLY DRIVEN
STRATOCU GENERATION IS UNLIKELY. THUS THINKING ANY STRATUS THAT DOES
FORM WILL QUICKLY SHIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES RETURNING IN ITS WAKE. SO
OVERALL...EXPECTING MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS TODAY OVER THE CWA. GIVEN
THIS...AND WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT...WILL CONTINUE ON THE WARMER
SIDE OF GUIDANCE...UPPER 60S SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA TO MID AND UPPER
70S ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER AND WEST OF THE JAMES.
COLD FRONT WILL WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH WINDS
TURNING NORTHERLY BEHIND IT. ANOTHER SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND WORRIED WE COULD SEE STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT AFTER SUNSET EAST OF INTERSTATE 29. ALSO STARTING TO
THINK WE MAY SEE FOG FORMATION ON THE EDGE OF THIS STRATUS...WHERE
THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS WILL RESULT IN LIGHT SURFACE WINDS...AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP TOWARDS THE
RELATIVELY HIGH DEWPOINT VALUES WE WILL HAVE. THUS ADDED SOME FOG
INTO THE GRIDS FOR NORTHWEST IOWA AND ADJACENT SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.
COULD POTENTIALLY BE A BIT FURTHER WEST TO...SO SOMETHING TO WATCH.
FORCING INCREASES TONIGHT AS A WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THINK
WE COULD BEGIN TO SEE SHOWERS DEVELOP ALONG THE ELEVATED FRONT BY
12Z ACROSS OUR SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA ZONES...SO WENT AHEAD AND
ADDED SOME POPS INTO THAT REGION. SHOULD GENERALLY BE A MILD NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014
COULD VERY WELL BE SOME LINGERING FOG IN NORTHWEST IA THROUGH
MID MORNING MONDAY...BEHIND WHAT MAY BE DEPARTING STRATUS PLACING
THAT AREA IN A FAVORABLE ZONE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. OTHERWISE MONDAY
IS HIGHLIGHTED BY OUR WELL ADVERTISED MID AND UPPER WAVE PASSING
ACROSS THIS AREA. THE WAVE IS OPEN AND NOT REAL ORGANIZED...AT LEAST
WITH THE JET DYNAMICS AND UPPER QG FORCING. THE NAM IS MOST BULLISH
WITH THE MOISTURE DEPTH FROM 850-500MB THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA. THE
GFS AND ECMWF ARE A LITTLE LESS SO...AND ALSO QUICKER WITH THE WAVE
PASSAGE WHICH LOOKS PREFERABLE TO THE SLOWER NAM. WITH THE WAVE OPEN
NOT SURE WHAT WOULD HANG IT UP AS PER THE NAM SOLUTION. BUT ONE
THING THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON IS SHOWING THE PLACEMENT
OF THE LOW AND MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
SLOPED QUITE STRONGLY...WITH THE 850MB FRONTOGENESIS FAVORING
NORTHWEST IA WHERE LIMITED MOISTURE EXISTS AT THAT LEVEL. BUT
FURTHER NORTH...THE 700-600MB FRONTOGENESIS TAKES OVER AND THIS IS
WHERE THE HIGHEST POPS ARE PLACED. STILL...WITH THE SKITTISHNESS OF
THE OVERALL DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE PROFILE...KEPT POPS MAINLY ONLY IN
THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR LIGHT RAINFALL. SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY AND WILL BECOME QUITE BREEZY BY AFTERNOON. IN OUR FAR
WESTERN ZONES...THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER INDEX STAYS JUST INSIDE
THE HIGH CATEGORY...AS MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES LOOK A BIT TOO
HIGH...AND WIND SPEEDS A LITTLE TOO LOW TO WARRANT A VERY HIGH INDEX
AT THIS TIME. CONCERNING TEMPERATURES...COMPARED TO WHAT WE HAVE
BEEN HAVING LATELY...COOLER AIR WILL BE ADVECTING IN GIVING HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...WHICH IS STILL A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.
BUT THIS WILL CHANGE ON TUESDAY...AS COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES TO
POUR IN THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT ALONG A SECOND WAVE ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE PARENT UPPER TROUGH. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ONLY LOOK TO BE GENERALLY
IN THE RANGE OF 50 TO 55 DEGREES. AND WITH STOUT NORTHWEST WINDS OF
20 TO 30 MPH...WITH POTENTIALLY HIGHER GUSTS...THAT WILL ADD AN
EXTRA CHILL TO THE AIR. IN ADDITION...ALL OF THE VARIOUS
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE SHOWING A LOT OF MOISTURE IN THE 850-800MB
LAYER...GENERALLY BISECTING THE FORECAST AREA FROM NEAR HURON...TO
SIOUX FALLS AND STORM LAKE IOWA. ANYTHING ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF
THAT LINE WILL LIKELY BE CONSIDERABLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE DAY...WITH
INCREASINGLY SUNNY CONDITIONS HEADING TOWARD OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES.
THE FIRE DANGER ONCE AGAIN WILL BE ELEVATED IN THE HIGH CATEGORY...
BUT RIGHT NOW HUMIDITY VALUES LOOK TOO HIGH TO PLACE THE INDEX IN
THE VERY HIGH CATEGORY. FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH WINDS DECREASING
DRAMATICALLY AND CLEARING SKIES...LOWS WILL LIKELY BE ON THE COOL
SIDE OF MANY OF THE GUIDANCE VALUES. BECAUSE OF THIS...CHOSE TO GO
WITH THE BIAS CORRECTED RAW VALUES WHICH GAVE THE COOLEST LOW
TEMPERATURES OF AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING.
FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE FORECAST STILL LOOKS DRY AND
COOL. THE DETERMINISTIC GFS AND ECMWF FOR THE MOST PART ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH SATURDAY WHICH MAKES THE FORECAST EASIER. THERE IS
ONE WEAK WAVE WHICH MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ANOTHER STRONGER AND COLD SHORT WAVE DIVES DOWN THE FLOW THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH THIS SECOND FEATURE AND LIKELY
BETTER AS THE GFS LOOKS TOO WASHED OUT WITH THE WAVE. THEREFORE
CONTINUED TO BLEND SOME OF THE COOLER ECMWF VALUES INTO THE
CONSENSUS TEMPERATURES FOR LATE THIS WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014
CONFIDENCE IN MVFR STRATUS THIS MORNING IS DECREASING. STILL LOOKS
LIKE WE COULD SEE A SWATH OF STRATUS THAT DEVELOPS THIS MORNING
AROUND 2500 FEET...BUT EVEN IF THIS DOES FORM IT SHOULD BE PRETTY
PROGRESSIVE AND QUICKLY MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE TAF SITES. THUS
MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD END UP VFR...ALTHOUGH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
WILL BE GUSTING UP TO AROUND 25 KTS. COULD SEE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
STRATUS AND FOG AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT EAST OF INTERSTATE
29. FOR NOW THINK THAT IF THIS DOES FORM IT SHOULD STAY EAST OF
THE TAF SITES...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CHENARD
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...CHENARD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
945 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014
.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
THIS MORNING. THE PATCHY FOG WHICH HAD BEEN OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS WAS DISSIPATING AS OF 9 AM. THIS WAS ON PAR WITH
THE NAMBUFR AND RUC13 MODEL SOUNDING FORECASTS.
WILL ISSUE AN UPDATE TO TAKE OUT THE FOG MENTION.
40
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 658 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014/
UPDATE...
FOG IN THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES GETTING THICKER AND FEW SITES
REPORTING VISBY OF 1/2 MILE OR LESS. HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR THE AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10 TO
BELTWAY 8 AND WEST OF I-45. THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BETWEEN 8 AND
9 AM.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 639 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014/
DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...
MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS THIS PERIOD CENTER AROUND FOG THIS MORNING
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS MONDAY MORNING.
PATCHY FOG AS OF 11Z IS RESULTING IN TEMPO CATEGORY REDUCTIONS AT
KCXO...KSGR...AND KLBX. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND AMEND AS
NECESSARY...BUT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATE SURFACE HEATING TO DISSIPATE
FOG BY 14Z. OTHERWISE... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS MORNING WILL
STRENGTHEN TO NEAR 10 KTS BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS LEE SURFACE TROUGH
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS DEEPENS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND MODEL RH
FIELDS INDICATE A POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS TOMORROW MORNING FOR
TAF SITES MAINLY NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10 COURTESY LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION OFF THE GULF. WILL NOT INTRODUCE ANY
CATEGORY CHANGES AT THIS TIME /DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE AND
OCCURRENCE AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD/...BUT LATER SHIFTS
MAY NEED TO INTRODUCE MVFR CIGS.
14
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014/
DISCUSSION...
SO FAR THIS MORNING MAINLY JUST PATCHY FOG OVER THE SOUTHWEST
AREAS...GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10-WEST OF I-45. STILL A
FEW MORE HOURS TO RADIATE DOWN AND GIVEN THE LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW
OF THE LAST FEW HOURS THE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S EXPECT THE FOG
TO GET A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD BUT ANY DENSE FOG SHOULD BE VERY
PATCHY AND SHALLOW BUT RURAL AREAS WILL LIKELY HAVE FOG.
TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY WITH A SLOW INCREASE IN
DEWPOINTS AS SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED WITH THE EASTWARD
RETREAT OF THE SURFACE RIDGING. A FEW CU WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP
OVER THE SOUTHWEST AREAS WITH FULL SUN ELSEWHERE. THE UPPER
RIDGING ACROSS TX WILL FLATTEN AND SHIFT EAST INTO FLORIDA MONDAY
WITH AN UNUSUALLY STRONG RIDGE FORMING NW OF HAWAII. DOWNSTREAM
THE TROUGH DROPS DOWN THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH MOISTURE AND
SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING MONDAY (MAYBE EVEN BREEZY IN THE LATE
MORNING/AFTERNOON HOURS). THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES EAST TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT LOSES STEAM AS IT
DROPS OUT OF NETX INTO SETX. RAIN CHANCES DO INCREASE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH A 20-40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. VERY LOW CAPE ENVIRONMENT
SUPPORTS SOME GARDEN VARIETY THUNDERSTORMS WITH SLOW MOVING STORMS
THE FAVORED TYPE BUT HEAVY RAIN SEEMS UNLIKELY GIVEN THE WEAK
FORCING AND LOW PW VALUES. UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES EARLY THURSDAY
TAPPING INTO A CANADIAN AIRMASS THAT RACES SOUTH AND REINFORCES
THE SAGGY PACIFIC COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD BE REACHING THE COAST
THURSDAY EVENING...FOLLOWED BY THE CANADIAN AIRMASS ON HALLOWEEN.
RAIN CHANCES PLUMMET THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE SUBSIDENCE RAMPS UP AND
LL FOCUS SHIFT OUT INTO THE GULF. HALLOWEEN SHOULD BE DRY/COOL
WITH NORTHERLY FLOW. THE GHOULS AND GOBLINS SHOULD HAVE A
WONDERFUL EVENING AS TEMPERATURES FALL FROM THE MID 70S AROUND
4-5PM TO LOWER 60S BY 8-9PM WITH A HALF MOON AND CLEAR SKIES.
GFS AND ECMWF DO START TO PAINT AN INTERESTING PATTERN DEVELOPING
AROUND 240 HOURS AND BEYOND WITH A DEEP TROUGH TO THE WEST AND
VERY JUICY TROPICAL TAP FEEDING OFF OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE
PACIFIC THAT GETS CAUGHT UP AND PULLED ACROSS MEXICO TOWARD
SETX/CNTX/STX...PERHAPS A HEAVY RAIN EVENING IN THE MAKING. WILL
HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS PATTERNS EVOLUTION IN THE COMING WEEK.
45
MARINE...
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY
AS SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS FROM LEE TROUGH ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE. WINDS/SEAS WILL INCREASE ACCORDINGLY... WITH WINDS NEAR
15 KTS POSSIBLE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS STARTING LATE TONIGHT. GIVEN
BORDERLINE CONDITIONS...LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO INCLUDE CAUTION
STATEMENTS /PRIMARILY FOR MONDAY NIGHT/. BY MID-WEEK... WINDS/SEAS
WILL FALL AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM. A WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY AS THIS SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT
PLAINS. FRONT LOOKS TO STALL ALONG THE COAST...BEFORE RECEIVING A
SECONDARY PUSH OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY. MODERATE TO STRONG
OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE FRONT/S WAKE WILL PROBABLY REQUIRE ADVISORY
FLAGS INTO THE 1ST PART OF THE WEEKEND. ONSHORE FLOW LOOKS TO RESUME
BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.
14
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 86 62 86 66 85 / 0 0 10 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 86 63 85 67 85 / 0 0 10 10 20
GALVESTON (GLS) 80 71 81 74 81 / 0 0 10 10 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...47
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
1118 AM MDT SUN OCT 26 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1118 AM MDT SUN OCT 26 2014
NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WE WILL BE WAITING FOR
THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE STATE TO INCREASE AS
ADVERTISED BY THE MODELS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS CURRENTLY OVER NORTHEASTERN NEVADA AND
HEADING OUR WAY. LIGHTNING DETECTION HAS NOT RECORDED ANY
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SINCE 5 AM THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...SINCE THERE WAS SOME LIGHTNING OVERNIGHT...WILL
LEAVE THE MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR
NOW. THE IDEA OF MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT
ALSO SEEMS APPROPRIATE...AS THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING RAPIDLY
ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 330 AM MDT SUN OCT 26 2014
THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO INCOMING TROF OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THIS
WILL RESULT IN INCREASING MOUNTAIN TOP FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST
AND WEST THIS MORNING. OBSERVATIONS ALREADY SHOWING AN INCREASE IN
WINDS...AND 88D SHOWING WIND SIGNATURE DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN
BOULDER COUNTY. CROSS SECTIONS FROM NAM/RAP SHOW STRONGEST WINDS
BETWEEN 12Z-15Z WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAIN
PASSES AND WIND PRONE EAST SLOPES. CURRENTLY STRONGEST WINDS ARE
OVER MOUNTAIN PASSES WITH SPEEDS IN THE 40-50 MPH RANGE. EXPECT
SOME OF THESE STRONGER WINDS TO EXPAND AND INCREASE DOWN THE
FOOTHILLS AS DECENT STABLE LAYER DEVELOPS IN THE 750-700MB LAYER
AFTER 12Z. WINDS WILL DECREASE BY AFTERNOON WITH DISSIPATION OF
STABLE LAYER.
INITIAL MOISTURE WITH THIS UPCOMING SYSTEM IS RATHER DRY WITH MOST
OF THE MOISTURE IS IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. EXPECT SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME INSTABILITY
AND A BIT BETTER MOISTURE WITH THE JET AND AS TROF APPROACHES.
SEEING QUITE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER NORTHERN UTAH ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN THE COOL DOWN
THIS AFTERNOON WITH READINGS IN THE 70S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS.
NO RECORD TEMPS EXPECTED TODAY.
BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE TONIGHT OVER THE MOUNTAINS
WITH SOME WEAK QG UPWARD FORCING AS TROF AXIS NEARS LATER TONIGHT.
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS STILL LOOK TO BE IN THE 2-5 INCH RANGE...HIGHEST
IN ZONE 31. PRECIP CHANCES MORE IFFY OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS AS
MODELS ARE QUITE VARIED ON MOISTURE AVAILABILITY. GFS IS THE
WETTEST AND NAM IS THE DRIEST. BEST CHANCES APPEAR TO BE OVER THE
FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS WITH THE BEST UPWARD FORCING AND MOISTURE ARE
OVERLAYED. THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO
LATER TONIGHT AS WIND SHIFT NORTH AND NORTHEAST.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 AM MDT SUN OCT 26 2014
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE MONDAY
MORNING AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD...AND SHOULD BE EAST OF
THE AREA BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. AFTER LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES
ALOFT AS WELL AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS...LOWERED THE MAX TEMPERATURES
OVER THE PLAINS BY A FEW DEGREES. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
ABOUT 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY...WHICH WILL ACTUALLY BE BACK
DOWN NEAR OR JUST BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. DOWNWARD
QG VERTICAL VELOCITY WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY HOWEVER
BEING UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET WILL HELP A FEW
SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN COLORADO THROUGH THE DAY.
HOWEVER...CROSS SECTIONS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE AIRMASS
DRYING OUT QUICKLY THROUGH THE DAY. WESTERLY MOUNTAIN TOP FLOW
TRANSITIONING TO NORTHWEST AS THE TROUGH PASSES WILL HELP WRING
OUT ANY REMAINING MOISTURE OVER THE MOUNTAINS. COULD SEE ANOTHER
INCH OR TWO AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH LOWER AMOUNTS AT ELEVATIONS
DOWN TO ABOUT 6500 FEET. THE SYSTEM WILL EXIT QUICKLY WITH SKIES
CLEARING IN THE EVENING. THE CONCERN THAT NIGHT IS FOR NEAR OR
BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES HOWEVER...SEEMS AS THOUGH A 700 MB LEE
TROUGH MAY FORM AS WELL AS SOME HIGHER CLOUDS MOVING IN AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THIS MAY HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM COOLING TOO
MUCH...INCREASED TEMPERATURES OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND NEAR THE
FOOTHILLS AND URBAN CORRIDOR SLIGHTLY. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH
MODEL TRENDS FOR A NEED FOR A HIGHLIGHT.
TUESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL FEATURE AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING
IN FROM THE WEST WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR MOST OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL..ALTHOUGH A RIPPLE LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING IN COOLER AIR FOR THURSDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER BIG WARM UP. DOUBT WE`LL SEE A RETURN OF 80+ DEGREE DAYS
FOR THE PLAINS. LONG TERM MODELS SEEM TO WANT TO BRING IN THE NEXT
SYSTEM SOMETIME ON NEXT SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1118 AM MDT SUN OCT 26 2014
WINDS AT KDEN HAVE GONE TO A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST COMPONENT WITH SOME
GUSTS AT TIMES. SEEMS TO BE RELATED TO A SURGE COMING OFF THE
PALMER DIVIDE. THIS SHOULD LAST FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO...THEN
RETURN TO LIGHTER WESTERLIES AS CROSS SECTIONS SHOW DEEP...LIGHT
WESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE NAM
AND RAP KEEP THE DENVER AREA DRY OVERNIGHT...PROBABLY DUE TO
WESTERLY...DOWNSLOPING FLOW OVERCOMING THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FAST MOVING UPPER DISTURBANCE. MAIN EMPHASIS IN THE TAF
PRODUCT WILL BE TRYING TO DEFINE DETAILS IN THE WINDS.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DANKERS
SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM...KRIEDERMAN
AVIATION...DANKERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
213 PM MDT SUN OCT 26 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM MDT SUN OCT 26 2014
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW RIDGE CENTERED
OVER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND TROUGH BUILDING SOUTH INTO THE
WESTERN US. SW FLOW IS IN PLACE OVR THE CENTRAL ROCKIES/NORTHERN
PLAINS WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER OUR CWA. AT THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT IS MOVING OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO
WITH A WARM FRONT OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA. SURFACE TROUGH HAS SHIFTED
EAST WITH LIGHT NW LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS OUR CWA.
PRECIP TONIGHT-MONDAY...GUIDANCE SHOWING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
TONIGHT FROM NW TO SE THROUGH SUNRISE. MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
PASS ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY WITH BETTER FORCING OVER OUR CWA
ALONG THE SOUTHERN AXIS OF THIS TROUGH BETWEEN THE MID-MORNING TO
EARLY AFTERNOON PERIOD. LIMITING FACTOR FOR PRECIPITATION TONIGHT
AND MONDAY CONTINUES TO BE A VERY DRY AIR MASS THAT WILL HAVE TO BE
OVERCOME FOR ANY PRECIPITATION TO REACH THE GROUND. BY MIDDAY MONDAY
SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE A SATURATED LAYER WITHIN 4-8KFT AGL...HOWEVER
THERE IS STILL A DRY LAYER BELOW THIS WITH TD DEPRESSIONS 30-40F.
THERE IS SOME WEAK INSTABILITY WITHIN THIS LAYER...WHICH COULD
SUPPORT A FEW MODERATE SHOWERS...WHICH COULD REACH THE SURFACE AS
MEASURABLE RAINFALL. SEEMS LIKELY WE WILL SEE VIRGA AND MAYBE
SCATTERED SPRINKLES...AND ONLY ISOLATED 0.01-0.05" AMOUNTS OUT OF
THIS EVENT. KEPT NW TO SE TIMING FROM 06Z TONIGHT THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON MONDAY...LIMITING POPS TO 20 BASED ON LIMITED CONFIDENCE
ON MEASURABLE PRECIP.
WIND/RH THIS AFTERNOON-MONDAY...LOW SURFACE TD VALUES ALREADY
ADVECTING EAST HAVE ALLOWED RH VALUES TO DROP TO NEAR 15
PERCENT...HOWEVER WITH WINDS ALREADY BACKING OFF AND STRONGER GUSTS
(20-25KT) LIMITED TO THE FAR NW WHERE IS HIGHER RED FLAG CONDITIONS
ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY. SURFACE TD WILL CONTINUE TO DROP THROUGH
THE DAY MONDAY...HOWEVER WITH COOLING AIR MASS AND HIGHS IN THE
50S/60S RH VALUES WILL NOT DROP TO NECESSARY LEVELS FOR RED FLAG
WARNING. WINDS ON THE OTHER HAND WILL INCREASE AS COLD FRONT DROPS
SOUTH...AND WITH MIXING TO AROUND 800MB WE SHOULD SEE GUSTS 30-40
MPH MONDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. ADVISORY CRITERIA IS NOT
CURRENTLY EXPECTED BASED ON CURRENT GFS/NAM MIXING HEIGHTS/850-775MB
WINDS. IF WE WERE TO MIX TO 700MB MAYBE WE COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS IN
THE 45-48 MPH RANGE...HOWEVER THE WOULD BE MOST LIKELY WITH
VIRGA/LIGHT SHOWERS AND NOT A WIDESPREAD THREAT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM MDT SUN OCT 26 2014
UPPER FLOW WILL BE NORTHWEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THIS TIME.
SUBSIDENCE AND LACK OF MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE FA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DYNAMICS FROM THE EXITING TROUGH SHOULD
BE OUTSIDE OF THE FA BY MONDAY EVENING. POPS WILL BE NIL THROUGH
THIS PART OF THE FORECAST.
FROST POTENTIAL LOOKS GOOD FOR MONDAY NIGHT WITH A HARD FREEZE
POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST
KANSAS...WEST OF HIGHWAY 27. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR FROST
AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT BUT A HARD FREEZE IS NOT EXPECTED SINCE
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS COLD. PLAN ON ISSUING A FREEZE WATCH
FOR LATE MONDAY NIGHT IN COORDINATION WITH BOU AND PUB OFFICES. SEE
DETAILS BELOW.
MIN TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 20S WEST
OF HIGHWAY 27 WITH LOWER TO MID 30S EAST ACROSS THE KANSAS ZONES.
MIN TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE MID 30S. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE LOWER 60S.
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 70S ARE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY.
IN THE EXTENDED...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FA THROUGH SUNDAY AS A RIDGE
BUILDS EAST FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS. BY SUNDAY UPPER FLOW
TURNS SOUTHWEST AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO
THE NORTH PLAINS. SINCE MOISTURE IS TOO FAR NORTH CHANCES ARE VERY
SLIM FOR ANYTHING MEASURABLE IN THE FA. CONSEQUENTLY, POPS WILL BE
NIL SUNDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL WARM TO THE
LOWER 70S BY SUNDAY AS 850 TEMPERATURES WARM TO AROUND 20C. MIN
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S WILL WARM TO THE LOWER 40S BY
SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1122 AM MDT SUN OCT 26 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK
TERMINALS. GUSTY NW WINDS AROUND 20KT AT BOTH TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BECOME LIGHT AROUND SUNRISE AS MIXING DECREASES. AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR VIRGA TO
BOTH TERMINALS MONDAY...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE IS TOO LOW
TO ADD VCSH AT THIS TIME. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER BOTH TERMINALS BY 12Z WITH INCREASING WINDS
BEHIND THIS. GUSTS OUT OF THE NORTH BY MID MORNING MONDAY WILL BE
AROUND 30KT AT BOTH TERMINALS...AND A FEW STRONGER GUSTS CANT BE
RULED OUT.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
KSZ001-013-027.
CO...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
COZ090>092.
NE...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
NEZ079.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1122 AM MDT SUN OCT 26 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 811 AM MDT SUN OCT 26 2014
EXTENDED AREA AND EXP OF DENSE FOG BASED ON CURRENT COVERAGE
REFLECTED ON VIS/FOG SATELLITE PRODUCTS...SURFACE OBS...AND LOCAL
SPOTTERS. RAP SEEMS TO HAVE GOOD HANDLE ON CURRENT FOG
COVERAGE/TIMING. FOG/STRATUS IS LIMITED TO JUST NORTH OF
STATIONARY FRONT...AND WITH DAYTIME MIXING INCREASING AND SURFACE
TROUGH/FRONT SHIFTING EAST THIS FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE WITHIN TIME
RANGE REFLECTED BY RAP (ROUGHLY THROUGH 16/17Z).
UPDATE ISSUED AT 541 AM MDT SUN OCT 26 2014
DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS HITCHCOCK AND RED WILLOW COUNTIES
OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO. WEB CAMS ACROSS HITCHCOCK COUNTY AND THE
MCCOOK AIRPORT ALL INDICATE VISIBILITIES AROUND 1/4 MILE OR LESS.
THEREFORE HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THESE TWO COUNTIES
FOR THE NEXT 3 HOURS. DENSE FOG IS LIKELY SPREADING INTO THE
COUNTIES TO THE WEST AND SOUTH BUT AM THINKING THE COVERAGE IS NOT
ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY. VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE FROM WEST
TO EAST THIS MORNING AS THE WEAK FRONT MOVES EASTWARD BRINGING DRIER
AIR WITH IT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 AM MDT SUN OCT 26 2014
LATEST SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. TO THE WEST AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WAS MOVING ONTO THE WEST COAST. BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND
THE RIDGE AREAS OF CLOUDS WERE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. AT
THE SURFACE A WEAK FRONT WAS LOCATED ALONG THE KS/NE BORDER THEN
TURNED SOUTHWEST OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS NEAR COLBY...EXTENDING INTO
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. EAST OF THE FRONT SOUTHEAST WINDS WERE ADVECTING
HIGHER DEW POINTS TO THE NORTH. AS A RESULT EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP
EAST OF THE FRONT DURING THE MORNING.
TODAY EXPECT THE FOG TO PERSIST THROUGH MID MORNING THEN BEGIN TO
DISSIPATE FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE WEAK FRONT MOVES EASTWARD. THE
LOWEST VISIBILITIES WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE KS/NE BORDER
WHERE SURFACE WINDS WILL CONVERGE AND DEW POINTS WILL BE HIGHEST.
MEANWHILE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
AREA TODAY FOLLOWING THE WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. DUE TO THE DRY
AIR MASS IN PLACE AM NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN SOME CLOUD COVER WITH
THE FRONT/UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSAGE. HIGHS TODAY WILL
BE NEAR RECORD VALUES.
TONIGHT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
WEST HALF OF THE AREA...REMAINING STATIONARY THROUGH THE NIGHT.
OVERNIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. WITH THE
CONTINUED DRY ENVIRONMENT AM NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE THAN SOME
CLOUDS FROM THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH PRIOR TO THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH.
LATER ON MOISTURE AND LIFT INCREASE OVERNIGHT OVER THE NORTHWEST
PART OF THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH BUT AHEAD OF
THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. TOWARD
SUNRISE 700-500MB FRONTOGENESIS DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHWEST PART OF
THE AREA AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS. WITH MOISTURE CONTINUING TO
INCREASE AND THETA-E LAPSE RATES NEAR ZERO...WILL PLACE A MENTION OF
RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST PART OF THE AREA.
SOUNDINGS DO NOT LOOK TOO GREAT FOR ANY RAINFALL ACTUALLY REACHING
THE GROUND DUE TO A DRY LAYER BELOW ROUGHLY 700MB AND THE 100MB DEEP
SATURATED LAYER AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS...BUT CANNOT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT ANY RAINFALL. BY SUNRISE THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF
THE AREA BRINGING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN BEHIND IT.
MONDAY MORNING THE BEST INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LINKED
WITH THE BAND OF 700-500MB FRONTOGENESIS MOVING SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF
THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL WILL
BE IN THE MORNING OVER THE WEST WHERE THE FRONTOGENESIS WILL BE
STRONGEST. THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR RAINFALL WILL AGAIN BE THE DRY
LAYER PRESENT BELOW ROUGHLY 700MB AND THE FAIRLY SHALLOW DEPTH OF
THE SATURATED LAYER AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES
AND THE TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST FURTHER AWAY FROM
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...THE 700-500MB
FRONTOGENESIS WEAKENS CAUSING THE LIFT TO WEAKEN. IN ADDITION THETA-
E LAPSE RATES WILL BECOME MORE STABLE FURTHER HINDERING RAINFALL
DEVELOPMENT. AS A RESULT WILL HAVE RAINFALL CHANCES DECLINING
THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON NORTH WINDS WILL
INCREASE...WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH BY NOON. THE WIND WILL GRADUALLY
DECLINE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS AN 850MB RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST.
MONDAY EVENING SOME WEAK 700-500MB FRONTOGENESIS WILL BE OVER THE
FAR SOUTH/EAST PART OF THE AREA PRIOR TO THE TROUGH AXIS MOVING
THROUGH. WILL KEEP MINIMAL RAINFALL CHANCES GOING JUST AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH AXIS WITH RAINFALL ENDING ONCE THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST
OF THE AREA. LATER IN THE EVENING AND THROUGH SUNRISE LOWS WILL
FALL TO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S ACROSS THE AREA. AS A RESULT
PATCHY TO WIDESPREAD FROST WILL DEVELOP...WITH SOME LOCATIONS WEST
OF HIGHWAY 27 POSSIBLY HAVING A HARD FREEZE. AT THIS TIME
LOCATIONS THAT WILL HAVE A HARD FREEZE ARE FAIRLY ISOLATED...BUT
THIS MAY CHANGE WITH LATER DATA.
TUESDAY DRY CONDITIONS RETURN BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AS
A RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. DURING THE NIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN COOL TO THE LOW TO MID 30S...ALLOWING PATCHY
TO AREAS OF FROST TO DEVELOP BY SUNRISE.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 115 AM MDT SUN OCT 26 2014
WEDNESDAY...SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS BEFORE EXITING
THE AREA BY SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.
850MB TEMPERATURES WARM ABOUT 9F FROM TUESDAYS VALUES SUPPORTING
HIGHS AROUND 70/LOW 70S ACROSS THE AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
30S WEST TO LOW 40S EAST.
THURSDAY...HIGH AMPLIFIED RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY TOWARD THE
AREA REACHING THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING. COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH LOWERING 850MB TEMPERATURES ABOUT 9F ACROSS THE
AREA SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. SFC RIDGE AXIS HOLDS
FIRM ACROSS THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE FURTHER WEST LOW LEVEL
FLOW VEERS TO THE SOUTHEAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S
BUT COULD SEE SLIGHTLY COLDER READINGS ACROSS THE EAST WHERE
PROXIMITY TO SFC HIGH AND LIGHT WINDS LASTS LONGER WHEN COMPARED TO
AREAS FURTHER WEST. HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
RIDGE AXIS APPROACHES. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.
FRIDAY...GFS/ECMWF IS BETTER AGREEMENT THIS MORNING WITH TIMING OF
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WHICH IS NOW FORECAST TO BE OVER THE AREA BY
DAYS END AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. AS THE SFC HIGH SLOWLY MOVES EAST
AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES. STRONGEST SOUTHEAST WINDS GENERALLY ALONG/WEST OF THE
COLORADO/KANSAS BORDER WHERE GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 30 MPH RANGE
POSSIBLE. GFS SHOWING 850MB TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO THURSDAYS VALUES
WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWING SOME COOLER AIR ACROSS THE AREA. BLENDING
THE TWO GIVES HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S (EAST TO WEST). LOWS
IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.
SATURDAY...LARGE UPPER TROUGH JUST COMING ASHORE ACROSS THE WEST IN
THE MORNING NEARLY REACHES THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY SUNRISE SUNDAY
MORNING PUTTING THE FORECAST AREA UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
STRONGER SFC WINDS MIGRATE TO THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA DURING
THE AFTERNOON AS SFC TROUGH MOVES INTO EASTERN COLORADO. PLENTIFUL
DRY AIR CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.
850MB TEMPERATURES WARM QUITE SIGNIFICANTLY AND WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S PER GFS SOLUTION...THE ECMWF QUITE A BIT COOLER
SO WILL GO WITH CURRENT FORECAST OF LOW TO MID 60S FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1122 AM MDT SUN OCT 26 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK
TERMINALS. GUSTY NW WINDS AROUND 20KT AT BOTH TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BECOME LIGHT AROUND SUNRISE AS MIXING DECREASES. AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR VIRGA TO
BOTH TERMINALS MONDAY...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE IS TOO LOW
TO ADD VCSH AT THIS TIME. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER BOTH TERMINALS BY 12Z WITH INCREASING WINDS
BEHIND THIS. GUSTS OUT OF THE NORTH BY MID MORNING MONDAY WILL BE
AROUND 30KT AT BOTH TERMINALS...AND A FEW STRONGER GUSTS CANT BE
RULED OUT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 301 AM MDT SUN OCT 26 2014
THIS AFTERNOON NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO NEAR 30 MPH EAST OF
THE COLORADO BORDER AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL FALL TO NEAR 15
PERCENT. CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE THE WINDS WILL BE DECLINING AS THE
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FALL. AT THIS POINT WILL NOT BE ISSUING ANY
HIGHLIGHTS FOR FIRE WEATHER DUE TO NO OVERLAP OF THE LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WITH BREEZY WINDS.
MONDAY AFTERNOON NORTH WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 40 MPH AND RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL FALL TO AROUND 20 PERCENT WEST OF HIGHWAY 27.
CURRENTLY RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO FALL BELOW
15 PERCENT...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THIS IN CASE HAZARDOUS
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE REACHED.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DR
SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...DR
FIRE WEATHER...JTL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
207 PM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 207 PM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014
FORECAST IS ON TRACK THIS AFTERNOON. SUNNY SKIES AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES ARE HELPING TO CREATE NEAR IDEAL OPPORTUNITIES TO GET
OUTDOORS AND EXPERIENCE PERFECT AUTUMN LIKE WEATHER. UPDATED HOURLY
GRIDS TO BRING THEM IN LINE WITH HOURLY OBSERVATIONS. NO OTHER
ADJUSTMENTS ATTM.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1143 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014
UPDATED THE FORECAST PACKAGE TO REMOVE THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY.
TWEAKED HOURLY GRIDS WHILE AT IT TO MATCH UP WITH MOST CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1018 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014
QUICK UPDATE TO EXTEND THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY THIS MORNING. LOW
AUTUMN SUN ANGLE HAS ALLOWED DENSE FOG TO LINGER LONGER THAN
ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED. UPDATED HOURLY GRIDS FOR LATEST TRENDS AS
WELL. TRIED TO REFLECT THE LOWER RISE IN TEMPS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS FOR THOSE AREAS EXPERIENCING FOG AS WELL.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 725 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014
THE DENSE FOG APPEARS TO BE RATHER STEADY STATE ACROSS THE
CUMBERLAND VALLEY. BELIEVE THIS IS STILL ON TRACK TO BREAK UP AFTER
14Z. BASICALLY THIS UPDATE WAS MAINLY TO FINE TUNE THE TEMPERATURE
AND DEW POINT GRIDS BASED ON THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE
BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014
06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK COLD FRONT ON ITS WAY THROUGH EASTERN
KENTUCKY. MUCH DRIER AIR IS FOUND JUST TO THE NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY
AND TANTALIZINGLY CLOSE. HOWEVER...TO THE SOUTH HIGHER MOISTURE IS
FOUND AND WITH THE CLEAR SKIES THIS IS RESULTING IN AREAS OF FOG THAT
HAS BECOME LOCALLY DENSE. WILL BE GOING WITH A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH 14Z PER HRRR/GLAMP GUIDANCE. A RIDGE TO
VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT HAS DEVELOPED AGAIN TONIGHT WITH MANY
LOW SPOTS RUNNING IN THE UPPER 40S WHILE RIDGES ARE HOLDING IN THE
MID AND UPPER 50S. THE APPROACHING FRONT IS KEEPING THINGS A BIT MORE
STIRRED IN THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA SO THE DIFFERENCES ARE
SMALLER TO THE NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY. MEANWHILE...WINDS ARE
GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN THE VALLEYS WITH SOME NORTHWEST
BREEZES NOTED IN NORTHERN PARTS OF EAST KENTUCKY.
THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL TAKE A TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST AWAY
FROM THE AREA ALLOWING THE FAST FLOW TO REBOUND OVER THE TENNESSEE
AND OHIO VALLEYS TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND AND START THE NEW WEEK.
THUS...A MODERATELY STRONG RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER EAST KENTUCKY DURING
THE DAY MONDAY WHILE THE NEXT TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WITH ITS ENERGY ZIPPING NORTHEAST OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. AT LEAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...
THE RIDGE WILL KEEP THIS ENERGY AT BAY AND WELL AWAY FROM EASTERN
KENTUCKY. GIVEN THE MODEL SIMILARITIES...HAVE GONE WITH A GENERAL
BLEND OF THE MODELS WITH AN EMPHASIS ON THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM12
AND HRRR FOR WX DETAILS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE AREAS OF DENSE FOG OVER THE SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE CWA BURNING OFF BY MID MORNING...LEAVING BEHIND SUNNY
SKIES THAT WILL HELP GIVE US ANOTHER WARM DAY. FOR TONIGHT...MILDER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...BUT THERE SHOULD BE LESS IN THE WAY OF FOG
THOUGH...MORE LIMITED TO JUST THE DEEPER VALLEYS...WITH ANOTHER
HEALTHY RIDGE AND VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT DEVELOPING. MONDAY WILL BE
A VERY WARM DAY AS THE FRONT MOVES BACK NORTH THROUGH THE AREA AS A
WARM ONE AND JUST SOME EXTRA CLOUDS. FOR MONDAY WE CAN EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES NEAR RECORD LEVELS ALONG WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE
AND SOUTHWEST WINDS.
FOR THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS...USED THE CONSSHORT...AND ITS BC VERSION...
AS A STARTING POINT THROUGH THE FIRST 18 TO 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST
FOLLOWED BY THE SUPERBLEND. DID MAKE SOME CHANGES TO BETTER REFLECT
THE RIDGE AND VALLEY DIFFERENCES ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA AGAIN TONIGHT. POPS THOROUGH THE PERIOD REMAINS LOW...IN LINE
WITH THE VALUES FROM THE MOS GUIDANCE.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014
MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT FOR
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...AND REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST FROM FRIDAY ONWARD INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THUS...HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST REMAINS FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.
TO START THE PERIOD...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE PUSHING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH A SURFACE LOW TRACKING ACROSS MICHIGAN.
THIS WILL FORCE A SURFACE COLD FRONT EASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY ON TUESDAY. AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH SHELTERED
VALLEYS EXPECTED TO DECOUPLE...WE SHOULD SEE A GOOD RIDGE/VALLEY
SPLIT MONDAY NIGHT WITH VALLEYS POSSIBLY STILL REACHING THE 40S AND
RIDGES CLOSER TO 60. ECMWF HAS MOVED TOWARDS THE FASTER GFS WITH THE
FRONTAL TIMING...SO IT NOW LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
EASTERN KENTUCKY BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH CLOUDS INCREASING THROUGH
THE DAY. WENT WITH A STRONG GRADIENT IN POPS FROM EAST TO WEST AS IT
NOW LOOKS LIKE RAIN SHOULD MAKE IT WELL INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY BY 00Z
TUESDAY. PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST. GIVEN THE MOISTURE AND
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND THE INCREASED MODEL AGREEMENT...HAVE
OPTED TO INCREASE POPS TO CATEGORICAL. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME
WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON TUESDAY...SO A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE FASTER TREND
PUTTING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.
STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH CLEARING WE WILL SEE IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY AS THIS WILL PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE ON
WHERE HIGHS END UP IN THE AFTERNOON. MORE CLOUDS MAY KEEP
TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST MAY REFLECT.
HOWEVER...OPTING TO SIDE WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS...ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER A BIT. REGARDLESS...IT WILL STILL BE
SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER THAN THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...KEEPING THE WEATHER QUIET THROUGH THIS PERIOD. BY
FRIDAY...MODEL DIFFERENCES BECOME TOO GREAT TO DISCERN HOW THINGS
WILL UNFOLD. IT DOES LOOK LIKE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST AND BRING SUBSTANTIALLY COLDER AIR INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY
FOR NEXT WEEKEND. HAVE OPTED TO STAY WELL BELOW GUIDANCE NEXT
WEEKEND. IT LOOKS LIKE MOST SCENARIOS HAS THE AREA LOCKED IN A GOOD
DEAL OF CLOUD COVER UNDERNEATH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...AT LEAST
THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY. THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF NOW ARE BOTH
FAVORABLE FOR A HARD FREEZE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING.
THIS IS OUTSIDE OF THE HWO PERIOD...SO FOR NOW WILL JUST PLAN TO GO
WITH SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY MORNING.
ALSO...OPTING TO GO WITH SOME LOW POPS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY. THE LATEST ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD SUPPORT SOME SNOW ON THE
HIGH TERRAIN SATURDAY MORNING. LOOKS LIKE A CHILLY WEEKEND FOR
HALLOWEEN FESTIVITIES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 207 PM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014
IN GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SME MAY BE THE EXCEPTION...EXPERIENCING A FEW HOURS OF MVFR MIST OR
LIGHT FOG THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS MONDAY. SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS
THE AREA. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE HAS ALSO HELPED TO MIX DOWN SOME DRIER
AIR THIS AFTERNOON FOR VERY PLEASANT CONDITIONS. BUT CHANGES ARE ON
THE HORIZON. RETURN FLOW WILL BE DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT TO USHER IN A
WARMER...MORE MOIST AIR MASS FROM THE SOUTH. AS A RESULT WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY WITH TIME AND INCREASE TO AROUND 5-8 KTS BY
MONDAY AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS TO OUR WEST.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RAY
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...RAY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
120 PM EDT Sun Oct 26 2014
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1114 AM EDT Sun Oct 26 2014
Area webcams and surface observations have shown improvement in
visibilities over the past hour. Have allowed the Dense Fog Advisory
to expire at 11 AM. A few lingering patches of fog will persist
through midday, but overall conditions have improved enough to let
the headline go.
Otherwise, a pleasant and sunny day is in store.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday)...
Issued at 310 AM EDT Sun Oct 25 2014
...Dense Fog This Morning...Near Record Warmth Monday...
The near term forecast focus has been on locally dense fog that has
developed across southern Kentucky this morning thanks to
light/variable surface winds and a relatively moist air mass.
Dewpoints range from the middle to upper 50s ahead of a weak surface
boundary that lies to the north. Until this boundary pushes through
the area later this morning, conditions will be ideal for radiation
fog. The HRRR model has been capturing the fog very well and shows
it lingering through mid morning before burning off. As such, a
dense fog advisory has been issued for the southern part of the
forecast area through mid morning to account for the expected
impacts due to locally 1/4 mile visibilities or less.
Once morning fog burns off, plan on a very pleasant day as high
pressure will be the dominant weather feature. Sunny skies, light
winds and above normal temperatures will be the rule. Compared to
yesterday, highs will be a few degrees lower, thanks to some cooler
air aloft that will work in from the northeast. Highs should still
top out around 70 across the northeast forecast area to middle 70s
in the southwest.
The upper level pattern will then transition from zonal to
southwesterly, paving the way for near record warmth for much of the
Ohio River valley Monday. 26.00z model guidance remains very
consistent with past model cycles showing that as a strong shortwave
trough advances across the northern Plains, the ensuing
southwesterly flow will bring a surge of +16 to +17C 850 mb air
across the region. Soundings show mixing up to around 850 mb, so
this supports highs in the lower to middle 80s. With near full
sunshine, kept forecast highs on the warm side of guidance. 26.00z
850 mb temperature standardized anomalies vary from +2 to nearly
+2.5 SD, which increases confidence in approaching records for
Monday. It will also be a breezy day with winds gusting to 30 mph at
times across much of the area.
Below are the records for Monday and Monday night.
Record Max Oct 27 Record Warm Low Oct 28
Louisville 84 (1940) 64 (1991 and 1984)
Lexington 87 (1940) 64 (1984)
Bowling Green 87 (1919) 65 (1984)
Frankfort 89 (1940) 61 (1899)
.LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)...
Issued at 315 AM EDT Sun Oct 26 2014
After a warm and breezy night Monday night with lows generally in
the 58-63 degree range, a cold front will advance into the region on
Tuesday. Widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms will
accompany the front, with just about everybody standing a chance at
getting some rain. The front will be losing some of its punch as it
enters the Ohio Valley and the best dynamics will be to our north
across IN/OH, but we`ll still have a chance at some thunder here
coincident with a narrow band of surface based instability around
mid day. High temperatures should be in the 70s with winds gusting
to around 20 or 25 mph (maybe some higher gusts in thunderstorms).
Tuesday night the front will push off to the east and our showers
will taper off from northwest to southeast. There could still be a
few left over rumbles of thunder in the Lake Cumberland region
during the evening hours. General rainfall totals are progged in
the quarter to half inch range, though amounts will vary with the
convective nature of the precipitation. Overnight lows behind the
front will be in the 40s.
During the remainder of the week several waves will pass overhead in
progressive WNW flow, but a lack of deep moisture for these waves to
work with will lead to a mostly dry forecast for now. Daily highs
will decrease from around 60 on Wednesday to around 50 (probably 40s
in the Blue Grass) on Saturday as Canadian high pressure dives SSE
right into the Ohio Valley by the weekend. Morning lows on Saturday
should be around the freezing mark, and below freezing Saturday
night.
&&
.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 120 PM EDT Sun Oct 26 2014
VFR conditions will prevail the remainder of this afternoon and
evening with light and variable winds as surface high pressure
slides across the region.
Tricky forecast for the overnight period as a warm front lifts back
north across the area. Expect to see deteriorating conditions after
Midnight at BWG as most likely scenario will be low stratus. Data
suggest ceilings could go down around minimums. Some data suggests
fog, however think that stronger low level jetting will be more
conducive to low stratus than fog. Also a bit concerned about low
level wind shear potential at the interface of the warm front where
nearly calm surface winds will be below a veering and strengthening
low level jet around 30 knots. At this point, think it will be too
marginal, however will continue to monitor with future forecasts.
SDF can expect the low stratus to begin sometime in the pre-dawn
hours, generally aroun 4 AM EDT, with LEX a couple hours later.
Conditions will scatter out by late morning and early afternoon,
with a strong SW gradient taking over. Gusts to 30 mph will be
possible.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Update.........BJS
Short Term.....ZBT
Long Term......13
Aviation.......BJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
402 PM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW UPR RDG OVER
CENTRAL NAMERICA BLDG TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LKS BTWN SLOWLY DEPARTING
CLOSED LO OVER SE CANADA AND ANOTHER DEEP TROF OVER THE W. AT THE
SFC...HI PRES RDG AXIS AND DRY AIRMASS SHOWN ON THE 12Z INL/MPX
RAOBS...WHERE 12Z PWAT WAS 0.25-0.30 INCH...ARE PRESSING EWD THRU
THE UPR LKS...BRINGING MOSUNNY SKIES TO UPR MI. SOME SC LINGERS OVER
THE FAR E UNDER LLVL NW FLOW/THERMAL TROF AHEAD OF THE RDG AXIS...
AND SOME CI SPILLING OVER THE UPR RDG AXIS TO THE NE OF H85 WARM FNT
IN THE NRN PLAINS IS MOVING INTO THE W. DEEPENING SFC LO PRES IS
MOVING SLOWLY E THRU THE NRN PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF THE WRN TROF...BUT
OVERALL DRYNESS OF THE AIRMASS IN THE NRN PLAINS HAS PREVENTED ANY
PCPN AND EVEN MUCH CLD COVER SO FAR. 12Z H85 TEMPS WERE AOA 20C IN
THE NCENTRAL PLAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS LO.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUSED ON CLD/PCPN TRENDS
ASSOCIATED WITH APRCHG WARM FNT.
TNGT WL START OFF MAINLY CLEAR WITH JUST SOME SCT HI CLDS...BUT THEN
CLDS WL THICKEN THRU THE NGT WITH DVLPG WAD BTWN HI PRES RDG
DEPARTING TO THE E AND LO PRES MOVING TOWARD LK WINNIPEG AND NE OF
ATTENDANT WARM FNT MOVING NE THRU WI. ALTHOUGH LINGERING LLVL DRY
AIR AND PASSAGE OF SHARPER H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC TO THE NW MAY TEND TO
LIMIT POPS...FCST DEEP ISENTROPIC ASCENT WITH VIGOROUS H85-5
MOISTENING LIFTING PWAT TOWARD ARND AN INCH OR 225 PCT OF NORMAL
OVER THE W BY 12Z MON...BAND OF FCST H85-7 FGEN TO THE NE OF THE H85
WARM FNT AND INCRSG UPR DVGC JUSTIFY BUMPING POPS UP A BIT OVER THE
W HALF LATE. BUT OVERALL INITIAL DRYNESS OF THE AIRMASS WARRANTS A
FCST OF NO HIER THAN HI CHC POPS. MAINTAINED MENTION OF SOME THUNDER
OVER THE W LATER AT NGT...WHEN MID LVL LAPSE RATES ARE FCST TO
STEEPEN AND FCST SDNGS INDICATE MUCAPE UP TO 500 J/KG. THE STEEPER
MID LVL LAPSE RATES FCST ARE REASONABLE GIVEN THE VERY HI H85 TEMPS
OBSVD IN THE PLAINS TODAY. DESPITE THE EXPECTED INCRSG CLDS/MSTR...
DRYNESS OF THE AIRMASS IN PLACE SUGGESTS LOWERING FCST LO TEMPS A
BIT. EXPECT THE LOWEST MIN TEMPS TOWARD THE LO END OF GUIDANCE OVER
THE INTERIOR E...WHERE CLDS WL INCRS LATEST. HOURLY TEMPS FCST WL
SHOW RELATIVELY EARLY MINS WITH RISING READINGS LATER TNGT UNDER THE
INCRSG/THICKENING CLDS.
MON...INCRSD POPS TO LIKELY ON MON MRNG OVER THE E HALF WHERE MODELS
SHOW INCRSG UPR DVGC/BAND OF H85-7 FGEN AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT
COINCIDENT WITH INCRSG PWAT UP TO ABOUT 215 PCT OF NORMAL. MODEL
FCST SDNGS INDICATE MUCAPE 500-1000 J/KG WHEN LIFTING FM ARND H8 ON
MON. GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF THIS ELEVATED INSTABILITY...NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION THERE COULD BE SOME HAIL UNDER ANY STRONGER STORM.
ARRIVAL OF DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC/MID LVL DRYING AND CAPPING W-E IN
THE AFTN FOLLOWING EXIT OF THE UPR DVGC/FGEN BAND WL DIMINISH THE
POPS. TENDED TOWARD THE LO END OF GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS ON MON
GIVEN HI SFC-H85 STABILITY/CLDS N OF SFC WARM FNT. ADDED A MENTION
OF SOME FOG LATE IN THE DAY OVER THE CENTRAL WITH INCRSGLY MOIST
UPSLOPE LLVL SE FLOW UNDER MID LVL DRYING IN ADVANCE OF SLOWLY
APRCHG WARM FNT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014
THE FORECAST FOR MON NIGHT/TUE REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN DUE TO
MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY /AND RESULTING
CYCLOGENESIS/ ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION. THE REAL DIFFERENCES ARE DUE TO THE PLACEMENT OF THE
SHORTWAVE. THE GFS KEEPS THE BEST ENERGY FARTHER N...RESULTING IN
THE DRY SLOT BEING OVER THE CWA MUCH OF MON NIGHT AND TUE. ON THE
OTHER HAND...THE NAM IS MUCH FARTHER S...RESULTING IN A DEEPER SFC
LOW THAT MOVES FROM CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN TO ERN UPPER MI...WHICH
MEAN MORE RAIN. THE ECMWF IS BETWEEN THE NAM AND GFS AND ONLY BRINGS
THE DRY SLOT INTO FAR SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...RESULTING IN A
WETTER FORECAST THAN THE GFS. VERY DIFFICULT TO LEAN TOO FAR ONE WAY
OR ANOTHER AT THIS POINT GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY
AND SFC CYCLOGENESIS...SO WILL GO WITH A CONSENSUS BLEND.
ADDITIONALLY...TUE WILL END UP BEING GUSTY...BUT THE EXTENT OF SUCH
DEPENDS LARGELY ON THE TRACK/STRENGTH OF THE SFC LOW...SO HARD TO
GET TOO SPECIFIC ON EXPECTED GUSTS AT THIS POINT. THE KEWEENAW
SHOULD SEE THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER UPPER MI DUE TO THE FAVORABLE
WLY WINDS DIRECTION.
TUE NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT...THE SYSTEM THAT MOVED THROUGH ON TUE WILL
MOVE INTO NRN QUEBEC BY LATE WED AS A SFC RIDGE MOVES TO THE WRN
CWA. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IMPROVES DURING THIS TIME AS CONDITIONS
TRANSITION TO A MORE FAVORABLE LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED RAIN/SNOW
SETUP...WHICH ENTAILS LESS MODEL VARIABILITY IN THIS CASE. BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NW...BUT WILL START TO BACK TO THE W
/FROM W TO E/ ON WED AFTERNOON AS THE RIDGE MOVES IN. THERE WILL BE
AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE
PREVIOUS SYSTEM INTO WED MORNING...BUT DRIER AIR WILL START TO
BECOME MORE DOMINANT ON WED. AS FOR TEMPS...850MB TEMPS WILL FALL
FROM AROUND -2C AT 00Z WED TO AROUND -6C AT 12Z WED. DURING THE DAY
ON WED...850MB TEMPS WILL FALL A COUPLE OF DEGREES OVER ERN LAKE
SUPERIOR WHILE WARMING A COUPLE OF DEGREES OVER THE WRN LAKE.
OVERALL...LOOKS LIKE A GOOD SETUP FOR LAKE EFFECT RAIN...WITH SNOW
BECOMING MORE LIKELY IN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN LATE TUE NIGHT AND
TO A LESSER EXTENT ON WED. SHOULD SEE A DIMINISHING TREND TO PRECIP
ON WED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WRN CWA. DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE ANY
SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.
STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY FOR LATE IN THE WEEK GIVEN POOR MODEL RUN
TO RUN CONTINUITY AND MODEL DISAGREEMENT...COMBINED WITH THE USUAL
CAVEATS WITH SHORTWAVES 5 DAYS OUT. THE GFS BRINGS THE SHORTWAVE
RIGHT ACROSS THE CWA...WHILE THE ECMWF MOVES THE SHORTWAVE FARTHER
SW. IN ANY CASE...MODELS HAVE SHOWN POOR RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY WITH
THE SHORTWAVE ITSELF...SO SYNOPTIC PRECIP IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.
THANKFULLY...THERE IS HIGHER CONFIDENCE WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW DUE TO
MODEL AGREEMENT ON NNW LOW LEVEL WINDS AND 850MB TEMPS AOB -10C FOR
MUCH OF FRI AND POSSIBLY INTO FRI NIGHT. THE LES SHOULD RAMP UP THU
NIGHT WHEN THE COLDER AIR SURGES INTO THE AREA /DEPENDENT ON
SHORTWAVE TIMING AS WELL/ AND SHOULD DIMINISH FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AS
A SFC RIDGE MAY SHIFT ACROSS THE CWA. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS IN NNW WIND SNOWBELTS EVEN IF THE SHORTWAVE DOES NOT
DIRECTLY IMPACT THE CWA...BUT WOULD BE GREATER IF THE SHORTWAVE DOES
IMPACT THE AREA. SHOULD ALSO BE WINDY FOR AT LEAST A SHORT PERIOD
THU NIGHT INTO FRI /DEPENDING ON THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE
SHORTWAVE/ AS A 1030MB SFC HIGH MOVES FROM THE WNW FAIRLY QUICKLY
BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE. SHOULD SEE A QUICK PERIOD OF GALES FROM THE
EVENT...BUT WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL THINGS BECOME MORE CERTAIN TO
GET TOO SPECIFIC ON WINDS SPEEDS.
SHOULD SEE ANY REMAINING LAKE EFFECT PRECIP DIE OUT/MOVE OUT ON SAT
AS MODELS SHOW THE SFC HIGH SHIFT E OF THE CWA. WILL RUN WITH A
CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...WHICH WILL SHOW A
WARMING TREND AS AN UPPER RIDGE PUSHES IN FROM THE W.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 121 PM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014
ALTHOUGH HIER CLDS WL BE ON THE INCRS LATER THIS AFTN/THIS EVNG IN
ADVANCE OF AN APRCHG WARM FNT...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
WITH DRYNESS OF LLVL AIRMASS SHOWN ON LOCAL 12Z RAOBS. BUT AS THE
INCRSG SSE WIND AHEAD OF THE WARM FNT DRAWS MORE MSTR INTO THE UPR
LKS...SOME -SHRA WL DVLP LATE TNGT. CLD BASES WL LOWER...BUT
LINGERING NEAR SFC DRY LYR SHOULD MAINTAIN A VFR CIG. RETAINED
MENTION OF MARGINAL LLWS AT IWD WITH CLOSER APRCH OF THE WARM
FNT/INVRN AND EXPECTED STRONGER LLJ AT THAT LOCATION. AFTER 12Z
MON...THE LLVLS WL MOISTEN SUFFICIENTLY TO WARRANT FCST MVFR CIGS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL LEAD TO DECREASING WINDS
TODAY. AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD WITH WINDS LESS THAN 20 KTS WITH THE
HIGH PRESSURE...SE WINDS INCREASE TO 30 KTS OVER MAINLY EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR ON MONDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. ONCE
THIS LOW MOVES TO THE EAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR ON TUESDAY...WEST WINDS
TO 30 KTS AND POSSIBLY UP TO GALE FORCE OF 35 KTS WILL DEVELOP LATE
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT NORTHWEST AND STAY
UP TO 30 KTS INTO WEDNESDAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING TO LESS
THAN 25 KTS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK...POSSIBLY LEADING TO GALES TO 35
KTS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...TITUS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1253 PM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014
UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS
MORNING. LEE SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WITH A WARM
WARM EXTENDING EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS INTO CENTRAL
MISSOURI. SOME 4500` STRATOCU HAD DEVELOPED IN NORTHWEST
MISSOURI...AND THIS MOIST AXIS WILL BE EAST OF OUR AREA. MAIN
CONCERN HAS BEEN LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTHWEST AND
WHETHER ANY STRATUS AND/OR FOG WOULD DEVELOP WITHIN AN AREA OF
STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. NO CLOUDS HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS YET...AND LATEST RAP MODEL
WOULD SUGGEST THAT NOTHING WILL DEVELOP. HRRR SUGGESTS THAT
DEVELOPMENT MAY HOLD OFF FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS...DEVELOPING IN
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND THEN EXTEND SOUTHEAST INTO WEST CENTRAL
MISSOURI. THAT STILL SEEMS LIKELY...BUT WILL BE BACKING OFF
PREVIOUS FORECAST OF EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS...FOG AND EVEN DRIZZLE
IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. BELIEVE THE FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE AREA
THROUGH THE DAY...BUT NOT SURE IT WILL MAKE ALL THE WAY THROUGH.
THUS...WILL KEEP LOWER 70S IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...BUT WILL WARM
TO THE MID 70S ALONG THE I80 CORRIDOR AND FEEL OPTIMISTIC WE CAN
STILL REACH THE LOWER 80S IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. RECORD AT KLNK
TODAY IS 86...DON`T THINK WE`LL MAKE THAT AND SHOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES SHORT. SURFACE DEWPOINTS SHOULD RISE INTO THE 50S AND EVEN
LOWER 60S IN SOUTHEAST NE/SOUTHWEST IA TODAY ALSO GIVING US A
BRIEF RETURN TO SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID CONDITIONS THAN WE`VE HAD
RECENTLY.
UPPER TROUGH PUSHING ONTO THE WEST COAST MOVES THROUGH THE ROCKIES
AND ONTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY...WHICH DRAGS THE SURFACE
TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE AREA AS A COLD
FRONT. PRECIP SHOULD STAY WEST/NORTHWEST OF THE AREA TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...WITH WEAKENING WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND DEWPOINTS
REMAINING ELEVATED...WLD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME PATCHY FOG
DEVELOP ALONG/EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER OVERNIGHT AS WELL.
COLD FRONT ARRIVES MONDAY WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASING
THROUGH THE DAY. THE REAL COOL AIR LAGS BEHIND THE FRONT UNTIL
TUESDAY. STILL LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY AS WELL...WHICH COULD LINGER ACROSS
WESTERN IOWA MONDAY EVENING.
COOLER TEMPS PREVAIL FOR TUESDAY WITH BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
WITH MID TO UPPER 50S...WHICH WOULD FINALLY BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014
THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS QUIET...WITH NORMAL OR JUST SLIGHTLY
BELOW TEMPS. THERE STILL IS A VERY WEAK WAVE THAT MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE REMAIN
JUST NORTH OF THE REGION. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN HINTING AT A SMALL
SPRINKLE CHANCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT PROBABLY NOT STRONG ENOUGH
TO MENTION YET. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY COULD BE WELL BELOW NORMAL...
BUT RECOVERY BACK TO NEAR NORMAL OR EVEN ABOVE IS POSSIBLE BY
SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECETED UNTIL 0800Z. AFTER 0800Z...A COLD
FRONT PASSING THROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CREATE MVFR CONDITIONS WITH
RAIN AT KOFK AND IFR CONDITIONS WITH FOG AND RAIN AT KLNK. WINDS
WILL SWITCH FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST AS COLDF FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 0800Z.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...SMITH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
308 PM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
UNSEASONABLY WARM DAYTIME TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND AS
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 110 PM SUNDAY...STILL CRYSTAL CAROLINA BLUE SKIES THIS
AFTERNOON AND A NONDESCRIPT COLD FRONT NORTH OF THE REGION WILL
PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WILL ONLY A WEAK WIND SHIFT NOTED.
WITH THE THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THE HRRR 12 UTC IS SHOWING A
SEA-BREEZE DEVELOPING BUT REMAINING TRAPPED NEAR THE COAST MAINLY
FROM CAROLINA BEACH SOUTHWARD.
OVERNIGHT...WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVERHEAD...NO CLOUD
COVER...AND LIGHT WINDS THE REGION WILL HAVE AN EXCELLENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT. MINIMUM 2-METER TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH THE MIDDLE 40S TO NEAR 50 OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST MONDAY WITH SURFACE WINDS VEERING FROM NORTHEAST
TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON...THEN COMING AROUND TO THE
SOUTH ON TUESDAY. SEVERAL DAYS OF PERFECTLY CLEAR SKIES MAY
EVENTUALLY COME TO AN END WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS SOME THIN CIRRUS
SPREADS IN AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH. THE BIGGER STORY WILL
BE MUCH-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEK. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO AS HIGH AS +16C...ABOVE THE
90TH PERCENTILE FOR LATE OCTOBER AND LIKELY TO PUSH DAYTIME HIGHS
INTO THE LOWER 80S INLAND FROM THE COAST BOTH DAYS. NEAR THE
BEACHES A COOLER ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE RELATIVELY COOL OCEAN
WATERS SHOULD HOLD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S.
VERY DRY AIR UNDER THE HEART OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE MONDAY WILL
GET ENTRAINED INTO THE DAYTIME MIXED LAYER WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS
CRASHING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S...LOWEST ACROSS SE NORTH
CAROLINA. THIS WILL CREATE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE 20-30
PERCENT RANGE. FORTUNATELY LIGHT WINDS UNDER THE HIGH WILL
PRECLUDE THE FIRE WEATHER RISK FROM BECOMING TOO EXTREME.
MOISTURE RETURNING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE DEPARTING
HIGH WILL PUSH DEWPOINTS INTO THE 50S AND EVENTUALLY NEAR 60
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...THE LONG TERM IS SHAPING UP TO OFFER TWO OR
THREE DIFFERENT AIRMASSES. WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE ONE LAST DAY OF
UNSEASONABLE WARMTH AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT AND BERMUDA HIGH
PRESSURE THAT WILL BE LOSING GROUND. CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING FROM
WEST TO EAST ON WEDNESDAY WHICH MAY TEMPER THE WARMTH OVER WESTERN
ZONES BUT MOST PLACES SHOULD STILL EXCEED 80 DEGREES. RAIN CHANCES
THEN FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR THE FRONT, NOW FORECAST TO
ARRIVE EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY. THE SECOND AIRMASS DESCRIBED IN THE
FIST LINE WILL THEN BE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION AS THE FRONT SITS
JUST OFF THE COAST AND WAITS TO GET KICKED BY THE MAIN ENERGY MOVING
INTO THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO
CLIMO THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. ITS TOUGH TO SAY WHETHER OR NOT SOME
SMALL POPS ARE WARRANTED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST DURING THIS PART
OF THE SETUP. BY SATURDAY THIS ENERGY ALOFT CAPTURES THE RAPIDLY
DEEPENING LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND. THE ENTIRE SYSTEM CUTS OFF AND THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION SCREAMS INTO THE CAROLINAS. IT`S STILL TOO EARLY
TO SAY JUST HOW SUPERLATIVE THIS COLD AIR ADVECTION BECOMES. THE
GFS PUSHES 850MB TEMPS DOWN TO 1.5-4C (NORTH TO SOUTH) ACROSS THE
REGION. THE ECMWF IS NOW WEAKER THAN ITS PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS BUT
STILL PUSHES THE UNWELCOME 850MB 0C LINE SOUTH OF THE NC/SC STATE
BORDER. OUR CURRENT CHILLY SUNDAY FORECAST OF HIGHS JUST 60-65
APPEAR ON TRACK AT THIS TIME. WILL LOWER SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS HOWEVER
TO SHOW MID TO UPPER 30S AREA-WIDE.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...VFR/CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THIS TAF
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE/DRYER AIR BUILDS INTO THE TERMINALS. WINDS
WILL BE W-NW AROUND 10 KT AT ALL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. COULD BE
ISOLATED GUSTS TO 20KT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS...BUT THE GENERAL TREND WILL BE FOR OVERALL WIND SPEEDS TO
DECREASE AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME
LGT/VRBL BY THIS EVENING...THEN PERSISTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXCEPT FOR A CHANCE OF COASTAL MVFR/INLAND IFR
CONDITIONS IN EARLY MORNING FOG TUES/WED/THURS MORNINGS...VFR WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS WED EVENING THROUGH
THURS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT BECOMES STALLED JUST OFF THE COAST.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 110 PM SUNDAY...THE WINDS HAVE BACKED TO THE WEST AHEAD OF A
VERY WEAK COLD FRONT. CURRENTLY THE BUOYS ARE SHOWING WEST WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS...AND THE ONLY IMPACT OF THE FRONT WILL BE TO
VEER THE WINDS TO THE NORTH OVERNIGHT. THE WINDS SPEEDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE 10 KNOTS WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. SEAS ARE RUNNING
BETWEEN 1 AND 2.5 FEET THIS AFTERNOON AND THEY ARE EXPECTED TO
SETTLE OUT TO 0.5 TO 2.0 FEET OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS MONDAY MORNING...THEN OFFSHORE MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
LEAD TO VEERING WIND DIRECTIONS AND LIGHT WIND SPEEDS MONDAY...
WITH SOUTH WINDS INCREASING TO 10-12 KT BY TUESDAY EVENING. THE
LIGHT WIND SPEEDS AND LACK OF ANY CONSIDERABLE SWELL MEANS
COMBINED SEAS WILL AVERAGE ONLY 1-2 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...WEDNESDAY TO BRING THE LAST DAY OF QUIET WEATHER
WITH HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE AND A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS BOUNDARY WILL PUSH INTO AND THROUGH THE
WATERS THURSDAY MORNING WITH AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT BUT A LESS
DRAMATIC INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS OFTEN ACCOMPANIED BY SUCH
BOUNDARIES. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD
AND A COLD SURGE OF HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS IS STILL GOING TO BE
FORTHCOMING...BUT IT MAY END UP WAITING TIL THE END OF THE PERIOD OR
JUST BEYOND.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TRA
NEAR TERM...DRH
SHORT TERM...TRA
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
111 PM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT OR WIND SHIFT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD TONIGHT. THE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 110 PM SUNDAY...STILL CRYSTAL CAROLINA BLUE SKIES THIS
AFTERNOON AND A NONDESCRIPT COLD FRONT NORTH OF THE REGION WILL
PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WILL ONLY A WEAK WIND SHIFT NOTED.
WITH THE THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THE HRRR 12 UTC IS SHOWING A
SEA-BREEZE DEVELOPING BUT REMAINING TRAPPED NEAR THE COAST MAINLY
FROM CAROLINA BEACH SOUTHWARD.
OVERNIGHT...WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVERHEAD...NO CLOUD
COVER...AND LIGHT WINDS THE REGION WILL HAVE AN EXCELLENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT. MINIMUM 2-METER TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH THE MIDDLE 40S TO NEAR 50 OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...GORGEOUS WEATHER TO CONTINUE THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK...WITH CONDITIONS MORE APPROPRIATE FOR LATE SUMMER THAN
MID-FALL ANTICIPATED. SURFACE HIGH OVERHEAD MONDAY MORNING WILL MOVE
TO A POSITION EAST OF BERMUDA ON TUESDAY...CREATING A SUMMER-LIKE
BERMUDA RIDGE TYPE SETUP. THIS SURFACE HIGH IS DRIVEN BY A
STRENGTHENING RIDGE ALOFT...WHICH WILL ALSO MOVE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH
THE PERIOD...BUT MAINTAIN ANOMALOUSLY WARM THICKNESSES LOCALLY. THE
RAISED HEIGHTS COMBINED WITH WARM RETURN FLOW WILL DRIVE TEMPS TO
WELL ABOVE NORMAL BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WIDESPREAD 80 DEGREE
READINGS ARE EXPECTED AWAY FROM THE COAST ON MONDAY...WITH EVEN
WARMER MAX TEMPS FORECAST FOR TUESDAY WHEN RECORD HIGHS MAY BE
APPROACHED (86 AT FLORENCE). TEMPS NEAR THE COAST WILL BE MUCH
COOLER THANKS TO WHAT WILL LIKELY BECOME A STRONG SEA BREEZE AS
LAND/OCEAN TEMP DIFFERENCES EXCEED 10 DEGREES. MINS WILL ALSO BE
QUITE WARM BOTH NIGHTS...LOW/MID 50S MONDAY NIGHT...AND EVEN A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN THAT TUESDAY NIGHT. NO PRECIP THROUGH THE
PERIOD...AND EVEN CLOUD COVER WILL BE MINIMAL AT WORST.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...ENJOY THE WARMTH ON WEDNESDAY...BECAUSE THE
SUMMER LIKE WEATHER WILL COME TO AN ABRUPT HALT THURSDAY.
UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE AWAY ON WEDNESDAY...TO BE REPLACED BY A
LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. TWO
DISTINCT SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE BASE OF THIS
TROUGH...THE FIRST ON THURSDAY...THE SECOND LATE FRIDAY. THE FIRST
ONE THURSDAY...WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH IS
NOW PROGGED TO BE A BIT FASTER THANKS TO A LESS AMPLIFIED /FASTER/
MID-LEVEL FLOW. FRONT WILL CROSS THURSDAY MORNING...AND WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. OVERALL QPF STILL APPEARS TO
BE RATHER LIMITED THANKS TO...AS THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER
NOTED...ONLY A "THIN RIBBON" OF MOISTURE AND WEAK THETA-E RIDGING.
STILL...CHC POP FOR THURSDAY WILL REMAIN.
THIS FRONT WILL STALL JUST OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS
THE SECOND SHORTWAVE DIVES INTO THE TROUGH. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
INTO WHETHER ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL PERSIST FRIDAY TO KEEP SHOWERS
LOCALLY...BUT THE FRONT IN THE VICINITY COMBINED WITH SOME FORCING
AS THE SECOND SHORTWAVE MOVES OVERHEAD...WILL AT LEAST PROVIDE A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTN...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COAST. THERE SHOULD BE RAPID DRYING BEHIND THIS SECOND IMPULSE AS IT
DRIVES THE FRONT WELL FROM THE COAST...AND HALLOWEEN FESTIVITIES
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY...BUT COOL.
THEREAFTER A BIG COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED AS STRONG NEGATIVE ANOMALIES
DEVELOP ALOFT DRIVING INTENSE COLD ADVECTION ACROSS THE EAST. THE
FACT THAT IT WILL BE SO WARM EARLIER IN THE WEEK WILL MAKE IT FEEL
EVEN COLDER. EXTENDED MOS IS ALREADY 5-10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO
NORMS...A SURE SIGNAL OF THE VERY COLD AIR ANTICIPATED. THE 25/12Z
ECMWF SURE IS INTERESTING...BUT IS DISREGARDED ATTM FOR ITS
EXTREME (AND NEW) BEHAVIOR. THUS THE UPCOMING WEEKEND LOOKS COLD
AND DRY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...VFR/CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THIS TAF
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE/DRYER AIR BUILDS INTO THE TERMINALS. WINDS
WILL BE W-NW AROUND 10 KT AT ALL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. COULD BE
ISOLATED GUSTS TO 20KT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS...BUT THE GENERAL TREND WILL BE FOR OVERALL WIND SPEEDS TO
DECREASE AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME
LGT/VRBL BY THIS EVENING...THEN PERSISTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXCEPT FOR A CHANCE OF COASTAL MVFR/INLAND IFR
CONDITIONS IN EARLY MORNING FOG TUES/WED/THURS MORNINGS...VFR WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS WED EVENING THROUGH
THURS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT BECOMES STALLED JUST OFF THE COAST.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 110 PM SUNDAY...THE WINDS HAVE BACKED TO THE WEST AHEAD OF A
VERY WEAK COLD FRONT. CURRENTLY THE BUOYS ARE SHOWING WEST WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS...AND THE ONLY IMPACT OF THE FRONT WILL BE TO
VEER THE WINDS TO THE NORTH OVERNIGHT. THE WINDS SPEEDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE 10 KNOTS WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. SEAS ARE RUNNING
BETWEEN 1 AND 2.5 FEET THIS AFTERNOON AND THEY ARE EXPECTED TO
SETTLE OUT TO 0.5 TO 2.0 FEET OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM
SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE NEARLY OVERHEAD DURING
MONDAY...BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY...AND THEN MOVING WELL
EAST OF THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS CREATES A VERY WEAK GRADIENT
MONDAY WITH VARIABLE WINDS...ALTHOUGH A PRONOUNCED SEA BREEZE IS
EXPECTED WITH SE WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WITHIN THE NEAR-SHORE WATERS.
ELSEWHERE...WINDS WILL BE AROUND 5 KTS...VEERING FROM NE TO SOUTH
THROUGH THE DAY. AS RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS TUESDAY...WINDS WILL RISE
TO 10 KTS ACROSS ALL THE WATERS...WITH A SW DIRECTION PREDOMINANT.
THESE LIGHT WINDS WILL KEEP WAVE HEIGHTS LOW...1-2 FT
MONDAY...BECOMING 2-3 FT ONLY VERY LATE TUESDAY.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...COLD FRONT CROSSING THE WATERS EARLY THURSDAY
CREATES TWO DISTINCT REGIMES IN THE EXTENDED. IN THE PRE-FRONTAL
AIRMASS ON WEDNESDAY...SW WINDS WILL BE 10-15 KTS...CREATING 2-3 FT
SEAS. FRONT WILL CROSS FROM NW TO SE EARLY THURSDAY...WITH A
DECREASE IN SPEED AND A QUICK SHIFT TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION. THESE
NORTH WINDS OF AROUND 10 KTS WILL PERSIST THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. ALTHOUGH WAVE HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE AROUND 2 FT ON
THURSDAY...A CONFUSED SPECTRUM JUST BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS
EXPECTED AS NORTHERLY WINDS ENVELOP THE WATERS.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HAWKINS
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...MRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
1231 PM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014
ONE MORE DAY OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION. GRADIENT INCREASES SO IT WILL BE A BREEZY DAY THOUGH...WITH
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 30 MPH. THIS WIND COMBINED
WITH LOW HUMIDITY...WILL RESULT IN VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND ADJACENT NORTHWEST IOWA. FEEL
LIKE RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL GENERALLY STAY HIGH ENOUGH TO PREVENT
ANY RED FLAG CRITERIA.
STILL UNCERTAINTY ON STRATUS DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING. LOW LEVELS
REMAIN QUITE DRY...HOWEVER MODELS SHOW A NARROW CORRIDOR OF
MOISTENING AROUND 850 MB. NAM AND GFS SATURATE THIS
LEVEL...RESULTING IN A CORRIDOR OF STRATUS MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE CWA. RAP AND HRRR STAY SHORT OF SATURATING THEY LAYER...AND THUS
KEEP IT SUNNY. AT THIS TIME NO REAL WAY TO TELL WHICH IS
CORRECT...SO WILL GO WITH A COMPROMISE AND MONITOR TRENDS OVER THE
COMING HOURS. GIVEN THE LOWER SURFACE DEWPOINTS THAN ORIGINALLY
FORECAST...CONFIDENCE IS HOWEVER GROWING THAT DIURNALLY DRIVEN
STRATOCU GENERATION IS UNLIKELY. THUS THINKING ANY STRATUS THAT DOES
FORM WILL QUICKLY SHIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES RETURNING IN ITS WAKE. SO
OVERALL...EXPECTING MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS TODAY OVER THE CWA. GIVEN
THIS...AND WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT...WILL CONTINUE ON THE WARMER
SIDE OF GUIDANCE...UPPER 60S SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA TO MID AND UPPER
70S ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER AND WEST OF THE JAMES.
COLD FRONT WILL WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH WINDS
TURNING NORTHERLY BEHIND IT. ANOTHER SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND WORRIED WE COULD SEE STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT AFTER SUNSET EAST OF INTERSTATE 29. ALSO STARTING TO
THINK WE MAY SEE FOG FORMATION ON THE EDGE OF THIS STRATUS...WHERE
THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS WILL RESULT IN LIGHT SURFACE WINDS...AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP TOWARDS THE
RELATIVELY HIGH DEWPOINT VALUES WE WILL HAVE. THUS ADDED SOME FOG
INTO THE GRIDS FOR NORTHWEST IOWA AND ADJACENT SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.
COULD POTENTIALLY BE A BIT FURTHER WEST TO...SO SOMETHING TO WATCH.
FORCING INCREASES TONIGHT AS A WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THINK
WE COULD BEGIN TO SEE SHOWERS DEVELOP ALONG THE ELEVATED FRONT BY
12Z ACROSS OUR SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA ZONES...SO WENT AHEAD AND
ADDED SOME POPS INTO THAT REGION. SHOULD GENERALLY BE A MILD NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014
COULD VERY WELL BE SOME LINGERING FOG IN NORTHWEST IA THROUGH
MID MORNING MONDAY...BEHIND WHAT MAY BE DEPARTING STRATUS PLACING
THAT AREA IN A FAVORABLE ZONE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. OTHERWISE MONDAY
IS HIGHLIGHTED BY OUR WELL ADVERTISED MID AND UPPER WAVE PASSING
ACROSS THIS AREA. THE WAVE IS OPEN AND NOT REAL ORGANIZED...AT LEAST
WITH THE JET DYNAMICS AND UPPER QG FORCING. THE NAM IS MOST BULLISH
WITH THE MOISTURE DEPTH FROM 850-500MB THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA. THE
GFS AND ECMWF ARE A LITTLE LESS SO...AND ALSO QUICKER WITH THE WAVE
PASSAGE WHICH LOOKS PREFERABLE TO THE SLOWER NAM. WITH THE WAVE OPEN
NOT SURE WHAT WOULD HANG IT UP AS PER THE NAM SOLUTION. BUT ONE
THING THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON IS SHOWING THE PLACEMENT
OF THE LOW AND MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
SLOPED QUITE STRONGLY...WITH THE 850MB FRONTOGENESIS FAVORING
NORTHWEST IA WHERE LIMITED MOISTURE EXISTS AT THAT LEVEL. BUT
FURTHER NORTH...THE 700-600MB FRONTOGENESIS TAKES OVER AND THIS IS
WHERE THE HIGHEST POPS ARE PLACED. STILL...WITH THE SKITTISHNESS OF
THE OVERALL DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE PROFILE...KEPT POPS MAINLY ONLY IN
THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR LIGHT RAINFALL. SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY AND WILL BECOME QUITE BREEZY BY AFTERNOON. IN OUR FAR
WESTERN ZONES...THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER INDEX STAYS JUST INSIDE
THE HIGH CATEGORY...AS MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES LOOK A BIT TOO
HIGH...AND WIND SPEEDS A LITTLE TOO LOW TO WARRANT A VERY HIGH INDEX
AT THIS TIME. CONCERNING TEMPERATURES...COMPARED TO WHAT WE HAVE
BEEN HAVING LATELY...COOLER AIR WILL BE ADVECTING IN GIVING HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...WHICH IS STILL A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.
BUT THIS WILL CHANGE ON TUESDAY...AS COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES TO
POUR IN THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT ALONG A SECOND WAVE ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE PARENT UPPER TROUGH. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ONLY LOOK TO BE GENERALLY
IN THE RANGE OF 50 TO 55 DEGREES. AND WITH STOUT NORTHWEST WINDS OF
20 TO 30 MPH...WITH POTENTIALLY HIGHER GUSTS...THAT WILL ADD AN
EXTRA CHILL TO THE AIR. IN ADDITION...ALL OF THE VARIOUS
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE SHOWING A LOT OF MOISTURE IN THE 850-800MB
LAYER...GENERALLY BISECTING THE FORECAST AREA FROM NEAR HURON...TO
SIOUX FALLS AND STORM LAKE IOWA. ANYTHING ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF
THAT LINE WILL LIKELY BE CONSIDERABLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE DAY...WITH
INCREASINGLY SUNNY CONDITIONS HEADING TOWARD OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES.
THE FIRE DANGER ONCE AGAIN WILL BE ELEVATED IN THE HIGH CATEGORY...
BUT RIGHT NOW HUMIDITY VALUES LOOK TOO HIGH TO PLACE THE INDEX IN
THE VERY HIGH CATEGORY. FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH WINDS DECREASING
DRAMATICALLY AND CLEARING SKIES...LOWS WILL LIKELY BE ON THE COOL
SIDE OF MANY OF THE GUIDANCE VALUES. BECAUSE OF THIS...CHOSE TO GO
WITH THE BIAS CORRECTED RAW VALUES WHICH GAVE THE COOLEST LOW
TEMPERATURES OF AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING.
FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE FORECAST STILL LOOKS DRY AND
COOL. THE DETERMINISTIC GFS AND ECMWF FOR THE MOST PART ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH SATURDAY WHICH MAKES THE FORECAST EASIER. THERE IS
ONE WEAK WAVE WHICH MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ANOTHER STRONGER AND COLD SHORT WAVE DIVES DOWN THE FLOW THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH THIS SECOND FEATURE AND LIKELY
BETTER AS THE GFS LOOKS TOO WASHED OUT WITH THE WAVE. THEREFORE
CONTINUED TO BLEND SOME OF THE COOLER ECMWF VALUES INTO THE
CONSENSUS TEMPERATURES FOR LATE THIS WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014
VFR THROUGH 27/06Z. A FEW SURFACE GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS NORTHERN PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL 26/22Z. 27/06Z-18Z VFR WILL CONTINUE
NORTHWEST OF A SUX/MWM LINE WITH SLOWLY LOWERING CEILINGS AND
DEVELOPING SCATTERED -SHRA...WHILE CEILINGS LOWER TO 1-3K FEET
ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE SUX/MWM LINE. AREAS OF VISIBILITY 3-5SM
IN LIGHT FOG/BR WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA 27/09Z-15Z.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CHENARD
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1155 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014
.AVIATION...
VFR THRU THE EVNG HOURS. LLVL MOISTURE IS BEGINNING TO RETURN BACK
TO THE REGION & WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT
AGAIN TONIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT & MON MORNING. HELD OFF ON THIS
ATTM AND JUST ADVERTISED SCT 1000-2000 FT DECKS...BUT LATER SHIFTS
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THINGS AND AMEND IF NECESSARILY.
ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS AREAWIDE TOWARD MID MORNING. TIGHTENING
PRES GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO INCREASE SRLY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY. 47
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 945 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014/
HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
THIS MORNING. THE PATCHY FOG WHICH HAD BEEN OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS WAS DISSIPATING AS OF 9 AM. THIS WAS ON PAR WITH
THE NAMBUFR AND RUC13 MODEL SOUNDING FORECASTS.
WILL ISSUE AN UPDATE TO TAKE OUT THE FOG MENTION. 40
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 86 62 86 66 85 / 0 0 10 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 86 63 85 67 85 / 0 0 10 10 20
GALVESTON (GLS) 80 71 81 74 81 / 0 0 10 10 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$