Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 10/25/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1101 AM PDT THU OCT 23 2014
.SYNOPSIS...THE WEAK TAIL END OF AN APPROACHING PACIFIC WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING SOME LIGHT RAINFALL TO THE NORTHERNMOST
PORTIONS OF OUR DISTRICT TODAY...OTHERWISE MILD CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND MILD...BUT THEN A
SOMEWHAT WETTER SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN ON SATURDAY AND SPREAD RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA. AFTER A FEW RESIDUAL SHOWERS ON
SUNDAY...DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE PROJECTED
INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:21 AM PDT THURSDAY...A DEEP MOISTURE PLUME
CONTINUES TO IMPACT NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING WITH JUST
ABOUT ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION OCCURRING NORTH OF THE REGION.
LOOKING AT THE LATEST HRRR AND OTHER MODEL OUTPUT...HAVE BACKED
OFF ON PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTH BAY AND KEPT ONLY A CHANCE TO
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN NORTH OF THE GOLDEN GATE. FURTHER SOUTH...WE
CAN EXPECT WARMER TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WITH PLENTY OF HIGH
CLOUDS STREAMING OVER OUR NORTHERN AREAS. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:09 AM PDT THURSDAY...MAINLY HIGH
CLOUDS ARE STREAMING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA AT
THIS TIME...AS THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF A SYSTEM NOW AFFECTING THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST MOVES THROUGH. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ECHOES
ARE MAINLY REMAINING NORTH OF SONOMA AND NAPA COUNTIES AT THIS
TIME AND NO APPRECIABLE RAINFALL HAS YET BEEN PICKED UP BY
AUTOMATED GAUGES. EXPECT THE RAIN LINE TO SAG INTO THE NORTH BAY
TODAY BUT NOT MUCH RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS WEAK SYSTEM.
AFTER THIS WEAK SYSTEM MOVES TO THE EAST...A STRONGER SYSTEM IS
PROGGED TO AFFECT MORE OF THE DISTRICT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES EXTENDING AS FAR SOUTH AS WELL INTO
MONTEREY COUNTY BY MIDDAY SATURDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO ONE
INCH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH BAY...WITH MUCH
LESS FROM THE BAY AREA SOUTH. AS THE UPPER LOW CENTER MOVES
ACROSS...ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND COLDER AIR ALOFT FOR A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH BAY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS TO TAPER OFF ON SUNDAY THEN DRIER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. THERE CONTINUES TO
BE LARGE DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REGARDING
RAIN CHANCES NEXT WEEK. THUS HAVE LEFT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE NORTH FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BUT DRY ELSEWHERE. LOW
CONFIDENCE.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 10:50 AM PDT THURSDAY...LARGE AREA OF MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE BAY AREA AS
A LOW MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. CURRENT EXPECTATIONS ARE
THAT THE RAIN WILL NOT MAKE IT TO ANY TERMINALS SO HAVE NOT
MENTIONED ANY RAIN IN THE TAFS. LOWER CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT ESPECIALLY TOWARDS THE 12Z FRI TIME FRAME. THESE LOWER
CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE REMAINING TAF PERIOD.
VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS WITH JUST MID AND HIGH CLOUDS.
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE REDUCED CEILINGS AFTER
07Z. THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. LOW-
MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL DAY WITH
JUST SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING IN. MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP
AFTER 06Z AND WORSEN AROUND 13Z FRI AND PERIST THROUGH END OF TAF
PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 10:51 AM PDT THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WHILE LOW PRESSURE IS OFF
VANCOUVER ISLAND. THIS IS BRINGING LIGHT WINDS TO THE AREA WITH
STRONGER WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN WATERS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEEPENS OFF THE OREGON COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTER THE LOW MOVES INLAND.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...NONE.
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: JOHNSON
VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
931 AM PDT THU OCT 23 2014
.SYNOPSIS...THE WEAK TAIL END OF AN APPROACHING PACIFIC WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING SOME LIGHT RAINFALL TO THE NORTHERNMOST
PORTIONS OF OUR DISTRICT TODAY...OTHERWISE MILD CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND MILD...BUT THEN A
SOMEWHAT WETTER SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN ON SATURDAY AND SPREAD RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA. AFTER A FEW RESIDUAL SHOWERS ON
SUNDAY...DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE PROJECTED
INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:21 AM PDT THURSDAY...A DEEP MOISTURE PLUME
CONTINUES TO IMPACT NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING WITH JUST
ABOUT ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION OCCURRING NORTH OF THE REGION.
LOOKING AT THE LATEST HRRR AND OTHER MODEL OUTPUT...HAVE BACKED
OFF ON PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTH BAY AND KEPT ONLY A CHANCE TO
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN NORTH OF THE GOLDEN GATE. FURTHER SOUTH...WE
CAN EXPECT WARMER TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WITH PLENTY OF HIGH
CLOUDS STREAMING OVER OUR NORTHERN AREAS. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:09 AM PDT THURSDAY...MAINLY HIGH
CLOUDS ARE STREAMING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA AT
THIS TIME...AS THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF A SYSTEM NOW AFFECTING THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST MOVES THROUGH. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ECHOES
ARE MAINLY REMAINING NORTH OF SONOMA AND NAPA COUNTIES AT THIS
TIME AND NO APPRECIABLE RAINFALL HAS YET BEEN PICKED UP BY
AUTOMATED GAUGES. EXPECT THE RAIN LINE TO SAG INTO THE NORTH BAY
TODAY BUT NOT MUCH RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS WEAK SYSTEM.
AFTER THIS WEAK SYSTEM MOVES TO THE EAST...A STRONGER SYSTEM IS
PROGGED TO AFFECT MORE OF THE DISTRICT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES EXTENDING AS FAR SOUTH AS WELL INTO
MONTEREY COUNTY BY MIDDAY SATURDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO ONE
INCH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH BAY...WITH MUCH
LESS FROM THE BAY AREA SOUTH. AS THE UPPER LOW CENTER MOVES
ACROSS...ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND COLDER AIR ALOFT FOR A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH BAY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS TO TAPER OFF ON SUNDAY THEN DRIER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. THERE CONTINUES TO
BE LARGE DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REGARDING
RAIN CHANCES NEXT WEEK. THUS HAVE LEFT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE NORTH FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BUT DRY ELSEWHERE. LOW
CONFIDENCE.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 4:30 AM PDT THURSDAY...SATELLITE IMAGE SUGGESTS
AREAS OF STRATUS ALONG THE COASTAL HILLS OF THE SFO EXTENDING INTO
SFO AND OAK AS WELL AS THE NORTH BAY VALLEYS. THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL
ALLOW FOR SLOWER CLEARING OF THE STRATUS AND THEREFORE BURN-OFF
TIME IS NOT UNTIL 18-19Z DESPITE THE PATCHY NATURE OF THE STRATUS.
VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...NO STRATUS REPORTED IN THE MRY BAY
AREA THIS MORNING. BELIEVE THERE MAY BE AN OFFSHORE DRAINAGE WIND
THAT IS KEEPING THE COASTAL STRATUS OUT OF THE BAY. FT ORD
PROFILER SUPPORTS THIS. THEREFORE FORECAST HAS BEEN CHANGED TO VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE DAY.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 3:05 AM PDT THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WHILE LOW PRESSURE IS OFF
VANCOUVER ISLAND. THIS IS BRINGING LIGHT WINDS TO THE AREA WITH
STRONGER WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN WATERS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEEPENS OFF THE OREGON COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTER THE LOW MOVES INLAND.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...NONE.
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: W PI
VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
135 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM CENTERED SOUTH OF CAPE COD...WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF RAINFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY PULL
AWAY FROM THE REGION AND MOVE OUT TO SEA ON FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL
FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 127 PM EDT...A STACKED COASTAL STORM CONTINUES TO SIT AND
SPIN JUST SOUTH OF EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. A BAND OF STEADY RAIN HAS
MOVED WESTWARD INTO THE WEST-CENTRAL ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK AND
SCHOHARIE VALLEYS...AND EASTERN CATSKILLS. OUR LOCAL HIRESWRF AND
THE 3KM HRRR SHOW THIS BAND CONTINUING TO MOVE WESTWARD AND WEAKEN
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FURTHER EAST...THERE MAY BE A FEW
LINGERING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT THE BULK OF
THE RAIN FOR THIS AFTN HAS ENDED FOR THE HUDSON VALLEY ON
EASTWARD. HAVE LOWERED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST RADAR
TRENDS...BUT WILL KEEP POPS AT LEAST CHC IN ALL AREAS...SINCE A
FEW LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE DUE TO
THE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE.
WITH THE CLOUDS...PERIODS OF RAIN AND PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS
AT THE SURFACE...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE MUCH MOST HIGH TEMPS
REMAINING BETWEEN 45-50...WITH POSSIBLY SOME LOWER 50S IN PORTIONS
OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS IN LITCHFIELD CO. IT
IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY REMAIN IN THE
LOWER/MID 40S THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL START TO PULL AWAY FROM THE COAST
TONIGHT AND FARTHER OUT TO SEA. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE LARGE
GEOGRAPHIC SCOPE OF THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION WE WILL STILL BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME...WITH PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. SO OVERCAST CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY LIGHT RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF BY
FRIDAY MORNING. WILL MENTION LIKELY POPS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EVENING...TAPERING TO CHANCE AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS THE LOW TRACKS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST. AS THE FLOW REGIME
STARTS TO TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY FRIDAY MORNING...SOME UPSLOPE
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST AND
WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY.
WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LOOSEN ITS GRIP ON THE REGION
FRIDAY...THE FLOW WILL STILL BE MAINLY CYCLONIC WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WRAPPING BACK AROUND THE LOW. SO WE ARE EXPECTING PLENTY OF
CLOUDS DESPITE CHANCES FOR RAIN DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHANCE BY
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...IT WILL BE A SEASONABLY COOL DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THURSDAY. A FEW BREAKS OF
SUN MAY BE POSSIBLE TOWARDS SUNSET SOUTH AND WEST OF ALBANY.
SKIES EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CLEAR FRIDAY NIGHT...AS A SMALL SURFACE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS DUE TO LESS CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER... THE
NEXT SYSTEM WILL ALREADY BE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY
EARLY SATURDAY...AS A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
STRONG UPPER JET APPROACHES. SO SATURDAY SHOULD START OUT WITH SOME
SUNSHINE...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT LATE IN THE DAY. WITH ENOUGH SUNSHINE...HIGH TEMPS
COULD REACH THE LOWER 60S IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER
SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL AFFECT THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
LATEST MODEL RUNS TRACK THESE SYSTEMS FURTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS...WHICH RESULTS IN LESS PCPN ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ON
SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THIS SYSTEM WILL MAINLY PRODUCE
PCPN ACROSS NORTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...WITH LITTLE IF ANY PCPN
ACROSS SOUTHEAST AREAS AND MOST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. HAVE FORECAST
LIKELY POPS OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT...DECREASING TO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. ON SUNDAY POPS WILL RANGE FROM
HIGH CHANCE LEVELS OVER THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO SLIGHT CHANCE
OR DRY CONDITIONS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL STILL BE MILD WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S. FOLLOWING THE TROF PASSAGE...IT WILL TURN BLUSTERY WITH
SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN NORMAL TEMPS ON SUNDAY...HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO
BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER TO
START THE NEW WORK WEEK. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30 TO 40
DEGREE RANGE. HIGHS MONDAY 50 TO 60. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID
30S TO LOWER 40S. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S.
DURING TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WED AFTN AND EVENING. MOST OF
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY...BUT POPS ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO BETWEEN
20 AND 40 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
40S. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED SOUTH OF CAPE COD WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
PROVIDING A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ALTHOUGH THE MAIN BAND OF LIGHT-MODERATE RAIN WILL SHIFT WEST OF
THE TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS...LINGERING AREAS OF LIGHTER
RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL PERSIST WELL INTO TONIGHT. THIS...COMBINED
WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKING SLIGHTLY MORE INTO THE NORTH AND
DECREASING THE AMT OF DOWNSLOPING OFF THE SOUTHERN GREENS AND
BERKSHIRES...SHOULD ALLOW FOR MVFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY...WITH SOME POSSIBILITY OF OCCASIONAL IFR...ESP AT
KALB AND KPSF.
MVFR CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 15Z/FRI...ESP AT
KGFL/KALB AND KPOU.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY NORTHERLY AT ALL THE TAF SITES AT 8
TO 12 KTS...WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF
PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM CENTERED SOUTH OF CAPE COD...WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF RAINFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY PULL
AWAY FROM THE REGION AND MOVE OUT TO SEA ON FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL
FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL ONLY BE 70 PERCENT OR GREATER
TODAY. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED BE BETWEEN 90 AND 100
PERCENT. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF AROUND 50 TO 65
PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS TODAY WILL BE NORTHERLY AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS
NEAR 20 MPH. WINDS TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15
MPH...INCREASING TO AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH ON FRIDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
PERIODS OF RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. THE RAIN WILL FALL MODERATE TO BRIEFLY
HEAVY IN INTENSITY AT TIMES. THROUGH TONIGHT...ABOUT AN ADDITIONAL
INCH OF RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY UP TO TWO INCHES
ACROSS THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS IN
SOUTHERN VERMONT...THE BERKSHIRES AND TACONICS. DUE TO RECENT DRY
WEATHER...THIS RAINFALL IS RATHER BENEFICIAL TO THE REGION. THERE
WILL BE SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO RIVER
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. THERE MAY BE SOME PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS OR FIELDS...OR IN POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS...BUT
THE IMPACT SHOULD BE RATHER MINIMAL.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/JPV
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/JPV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
127 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM CENTERED SOUTH OF CAPE COD...WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF RAINFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY PULL
AWAY FROM THE REGION AND MOVE OUT TO SEA ON FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL
FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 127 PM EDT...A STACKED COASTAL STORM CONTINUES TO SIT AND
SPIN JUST SOUTH OF EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. A BAND OF STEADY RAIN HAS
MOVED WESTWARD INTO THE WEST-CENTRAL ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK AND
SCHOHARIE VALLEYS...AND EASTERN CATSKILLS. OUR LOCAL HIRESWRF AND
THE 3KM HRRR SHOW THIS BAND CONTINUING TO MOVE WESTWARD AND WEAKEN
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FURTHER EAST...THERE MAY BE A FEW
LINGERING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT THE BULK OF
THE RAIN FOR THIS AFTN HAS ENDED FOR THE HUDSON VALLEY ON
EASTWARD. HAVE LOWERED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST RADAR
TRENDS...BUT WILL KEEP POPS AT LEAST CHC IN ALL AREAS...SINCE A
FEW LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE DUE TO
THE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE.
WITH THE CLOUDS...PERIODS OF RAIN AND PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS
AT THE SURFACE...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE MUCH MOST HIGH TEMPS
REMAINING BETWEEN 45-50...WITH POSSIBLY SOME LOWER 50S IN PORTIONS
OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS IN LITCHFIELD CO. IT
IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY REMAIN IN THE
LOWER/MID 40S THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL START TO PULL AWAY FROM THE COAST
TONIGHT AND FARTHER OUT TO SEA. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE LARGE
GEOGRAPHIC SCOPE OF THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION WE WILL STILL BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME...WITH PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. SO OVERCAST CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY LIGHT RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF BY
FRIDAY MORNING. WILL MENTION LIKELY POPS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EVENING...TAPERING TO CHANCE AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS THE LOW TRACKS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST. AS THE FLOW REGIME
STARTS TO TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY FRIDAY MORNING...SOME UPSLOPE
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST AND
WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY.
WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LOOSEN ITS GRIP ON THE REGION
FRIDAY...THE FLOW WILL STILL BE MAINLY CYCLONIC WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WRAPPING BACK AROUND THE LOW. SO WE ARE EXPECTING PLENTY OF
CLOUDS DESPITE CHANCES FOR RAIN DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHANCE BY
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...IT WILL BE A SEASONABLY COOL DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THURSDAY. A FEW BREAKS OF
SUN MAY BE POSSIBLE TOWARDS SUNSET SOUTH AND WEST OF ALBANY.
SKIES EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CLEAR FRIDAY NIGHT...AS A SMALL SURFACE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS DUE TO LESS CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER... THE
NEXT SYSTEM WILL ALREADY BE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY
EARLY SATURDAY...AS A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
STRONG UPPER JET APPROACHES. SO SATURDAY SHOULD START OUT WITH SOME
SUNSHINE...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT LATE IN THE DAY. WITH ENOUGH SUNSHINE...HIGH TEMPS
COULD REACH THE LOWER 60S IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER
SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL AFFECT THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
LATEST MODEL RUNS TRACK THESE SYSTEMS FURTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS...WHICH RESULTS IN LESS PCPN ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ON
SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THIS SYSTEM WILL MAINLY PRODUCE
PCPN ACROSS NORTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...WITH LITTLE IF ANY PCPN
ACROSS SOUTHEAST AREAS AND MOST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. HAVE FORECAST
LIKELY POPS OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT...DECREASING TO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. ON SUNDAY POPS WILL RANGE FROM
HIGH CHANCE LEVELS OVER THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO SLIGHT CHANCE
OR DRY CONDITIONS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL STILL BE MILD WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S. FOLLOWING THE TROF PASSAGE...IT WILL TURN BLUSTERY WITH
SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN NORMAL TEMPS ON SUNDAY...HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO
BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER TO
START THE NEW WORK WEEK. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30 TO 40
DEGREE RANGE. HIGHS MONDAY 50 TO 60. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID
30S TO LOWER 40S. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S.
DURING TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WED AFTN AND EVENING. MOST OF
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY...BUT POPS ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO BETWEEN
20 AND 40 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
40S. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF NEW JERSEY WILL
TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
PROVIDING A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AS OF 700 AM...WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF
TAF SITES...BUT CIGS/VSBYS MAINLY IN THE MVFR TO OCCASIONAL VFR
RANGE. THE RAIN AND MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE TAF
SITES THROUGH THE MORNING. ALTHOUGH THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH IFR
CONDITIONS REPORTED DURING THE NIGHT...HAVE INCLUDE SOME TEMPO
GROUPS FOR IFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH 14Z AT KALB/KPSF WHERE IT
APPEARS THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL DURING THIS PERIOD.
DURING THE AFTERNOON...KPOU WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR AS THE
RAIN TAPERS TO -SHRA. ELSEWHERE...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING...THEN IMPROVE TO VFR AT KALB AND KGFL AFTER MIDNIGHT.
AT KPSF...VSBYS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR TONIGHT...BUT CIGS WILL REMAIN
MVFR.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AT ALL THE TAF SITES AT 8 TO 12
KTS...WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM CENTERED SOUTH OF CAPE COD...WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF RAINFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY PULL
AWAY FROM THE REGION AND MOVE OUT TO SEA ON FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL
FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL ONLY BE 70 PERCENT OR GREATER
TODAY. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED BE BETWEEN 90 AND 100
PERCENT. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF AROUND 50 TO 65
PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS TODAY WILL BE NORTHERLY AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS
NEAR 20 MPH. WINDS TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15
MPH...INCREASING TO AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH ON FRIDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
PERIODS OF RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. THE RAIN WILL FALL MODERATE TO BRIEFLY
HEAVY IN INTENSITY AT TIMES. THROUGH TONIGHT...ABOUT AN ADDITIONAL
INCH OF RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY UP TO TWO INCHES
ACROSS THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS IN
SOUTHERN VERMONT...THE BERKSHIRES AND TACONICS. DUE TO RECENT DRY
WEATHER...THIS RAINFALL IS RATHER BENEFICIAL TO THE REGION. THERE
WILL BE SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO RIVER
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. THERE MAY BE SOME PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS OR FIELDS...OR IN POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS...BUT
THE IMPACT SHOULD BE RATHER MINIMAL.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/JPV
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...KL/GJM
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/JPV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1044 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM CENTERED SOUTH OF CAPE COD...WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF RAINFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY PULL
AWAY FROM THE REGION AND MOVE OUT TO SEA ON FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL
FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1045 AM EDT...BANDS OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN
CONTINUE TO MOVE FROM EAST TO WEST AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
OF A SPRAWLING VERTICALLY STACKED COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. STRONG EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE
LOW LEVELS RESULTING IN A CONVEYOR-BELT OF MOISTURE FROM THE
ATLANTIC. CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS RESULTING IN MODERATE TO BRIEFLY
HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD. SOME
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS AND OTHER POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS IS
LIKELY. THE PERSISTENT RAINFALL ACROSS SOME E-SLOPES OF THE
SOUTHERN GREENS AND BERKSHIRES HAS LED TO SOME TOTALS REACHING
2.5-3 INCHES...WITH PERHAPS AN ADDITIONAL 0.5-1 INCH ADDITIONAL
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS MAY PRODUCE SOME MINOR...LOCALIZED
FLOODING...PARTICULARLY IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. SEE HYDRO
DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS.
THE CHALLENGING ASPECT HAS BEEN A RATHER SHARP GRADIENT TO THE RAIN
SHIELD...WHICH HAS ALLOWED AREAS SUCH AS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND
MOHAWK VALLEY TO REMAIN GENERALLY RAIN-FREE THROUGH 1030 AM. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION LOWER POPS IN THESE AREAS UNTIL NOON WHEN AT
LEAST SOME RAIN SHOULD FINALLY REACH MUCH OF THIS AREA. LOCATIONS
FROM AROUND ROUTE 28 NEAR OLD FORGE NORTHWARD MAY NOT RECEIVE ANY
MEASURABLE RAIN THOUGH...SO WILL GENERALLY MENTION CHANCE TO LOW
LIKELY POPS.
BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AS WELL AS OUTPUT FROM HI RES MODELS SUCH AS
THE HRRR AND LOCAL WRF...THESE BANDS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
THE REGION WITH VARYING INTENSITY INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE
WEAKENING LATE IN THE DAY AS THE LOW STARTS TO FINALLY TRACK
EASTWARD. LIGHTER RAIN WILL STILL BE LIKELY THIS EVENING FOR MANY
LOCATIONS...BUT THE INTENSITY SHOULD WANE AS WE LOSE THE
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS. WITH THE CLOUDS...RAIN AND PERSISTENT
NORTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE MUCH
MOST HIGH TEMPS REMAINING BETWEEN 45-50...WITH POSSIBLY SOME LOWER
50S IN PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS IN
LITCHFIELD CO. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY
REMAIN IN THE LOWER/MID 40S THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL START TO PULL AWAY FROM THE COAST
TONIGHT AND FARTHER OUT TO SEA. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE LARGE
GEOGRAPHIC SCOPE OF THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION WE WILL STILL BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME...WITH PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. SO OVERCAST CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY LIGHT RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF BY
FRIDAY MORNING. WILL MENTION LIKELY POPS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EVENING...TAPERING TO CHANCE AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS THE LOW TRACKS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST. AS THE FLOW REGIME
STARTS TO TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY FRIDAY MORNING...SOME UPSLOPE
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST AND
WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY.
WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LOOSEN ITS GRIP ON THE REGION
FRIDAY...THE FLOW WILL STILL BE MAINLY CYCLONIC WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WRAPPING BACK AROUND THE LOW. SO WE ARE EXPECTING PLENTY OF
CLOUDS DESPITE CHANCES FOR RAIN DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHANCE BY
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...IT WILL BE A SEASONABLY COOL DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THURSDAY. A FEW BREAKS OF
SUN MAY BE POSSIBLE TOWARDS SUNSET SOUTH AND WEST OF ALBANY.
SKIES EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CLEAR FRIDAY NIGHT...AS A SMALL SURFACE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS DUE TO LESS CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER... THE
NEXT SYSTEM WILL ALREADY BE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY
EARLY SATURDAY...AS A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
STRONG UPPER JET APPROACHES. SO SATURDAY SHOULD START OUT WITH SOME
SUNSHINE...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT LATE IN THE DAY. WITH ENOUGH SUNSHINE...HIGH TEMPS
COULD REACH THE LOWER 60S IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER
SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL AFFECT THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
LATEST MODEL RUNS TRACK THESE SYSTEMS FURTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS...WHICH RESULTS IN LESS PCPN ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ON
SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THIS SYSTEM WILL MAINLY PRODUCE
PCPN ACROSS NORTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...WITH LITTLE IF ANY PCPN
ACROSS SOUTHEAST AREAS AND MOST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. HAVE FORECAST
LIKELY POPS OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT...DECREASING TO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. ON SUNDAY POPS WILL RANGE FROM
HIGH CHANCE LEVELS OVER THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO SLIGHT CHANCE
OR DRY CONDITIONS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL STILL BE MILD WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S. FOLLOWING THE TROF PASSAGE...IT WILL TURN BLUSTERY WITH
SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN NORMAL TEMPS ON SUNDAY...HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO
BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER TO
START THE NEW WORK WEEK. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30 TO 40
DEGREE RANGE. HIGHS MONDAY 50 TO 60. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID
30S TO LOWER 40S. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S.
DURING TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WED AFTN AND EVENING. MOST OF
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY...BUT POPS ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO BETWEEN
20 AND 40 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
40S. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF NEW JERSEY WILL
TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
PROVIDING A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AS OF 700 AM...WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF
TAF SITES...BUT CIGS/VSBYS MAINLY IN THE MVFR TO OCCASIONAL VFR
RANGE. THE RAIN AND MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE TAF
SITES THROUGH THE MORNING. ALTHOUGH THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH IFR
CONDITIONS REPORTED DURING THE NIGHT...HAVE INCLUDE SOME TEMPO
GROUPS FOR IFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH 14Z AT KALB/KPSF WHERE IT
APPEARS THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL DURING THIS PERIOD.
DURING THE AFTERNOON...KPOU WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR AS THE
RAIN TAPERS TO -SHRA. ELSEWHERE...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING...THEN IMPROVE TO VFR AT KALB AND KGFL AFTER MIDNIGHT.
AT KPSF...VSBYS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR TONIGHT...BUT CIGS WILL REMAIN
MVFR.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AT ALL THE TAF SITES AT 8 TO 12
KTS...WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM CENTERED SOUTH OF CAPE COD...WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF RAINFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY PULL
AWAY FROM THE REGION AND MOVE OUT TO SEA ON FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL
FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL ONLY BE 70 PERCENT OR GREATER
TODAY. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED BE BETWEEN 90 AND 100
PERCENT. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF AROUND 50 TO 65
PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS TODAY WILL BE NORTHERLY AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS
NEAR 20 MPH. WINDS TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15
MPH...INCREASING TO AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH ON FRIDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
PERIODS OF RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. THE RAIN WILL FALL MODERATE TO BRIEFLY
HEAVY IN INTENSITY AT TIMES. THROUGH TONIGHT...ABOUT AN ADDITIONAL
INCH OF RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY UP TO TWO INCHES
ACROSS THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS IN
SOUTHERN VERMONT...THE BERKSHIRES AND TACONICS. DUE TO RECENT DRY
WEATHER...THIS RAINFALL IS RATHER BENEFICIAL TO THE REGION. THERE
WILL BE SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO RIVER
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. THERE MAY BE SOME PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS OR FIELDS...OR IN POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS...BUT
THE IMPACT SHOULD BE RATHER MINIMAL.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/JPV
NEAR TERM...KL/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...KL/GJM
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/JPV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
731 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM CENTERED SOUTH OF CAPE COD...WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF RAINFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY PULL
AWAY FROM THE REGION AND MOVE OUT TO SEA ON FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL
FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 645 AM EDT...BANDS OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN
CONTINUE TO MOVE FROM EAST TO WEST AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
OF A SPRAWLING VERTICALLY STACKED COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. STRONG EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE
LOW LEVELS RESULTING IN A CONVEYOR-BELT OF MOISTURE FROM THE
ATLANTIC. CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS RESULTING IN MODERATE TO BRIEFLY
HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD. SOME
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS AND OTHER POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS IS
LIKELY...BUT SHOULD NOT POSE ANY SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS. REFER
TO HYDRO SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.
THE CHALLENGING ASPECT HAS BEEN A RATHER SHARP GRADIENT TO THE RAIN
SHIED...WHICH HAS ALLOWED AREAS SUCH AS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND
MOHAWK VALLEY TO REMAIN GENERALLY RAIN-FREE AS OF 645 AM. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION LOWER POPS IN THESE AREAS UNTIL LATER THIS
MORNING WHEN AT LEAST SOME RAIN WILL IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY REACH
MUCH OF THIS AREA. LOCATIONS FROM AROUND ROUTE 28 NEAR OLD FORGE
NORTHWARD MAY NOT RECEIVE ANY MEASURABLE RAIN THOUGH...SO WILL
GENERALLY MENTION CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY POPS.
BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AS WELL AS OUTPUT FROM HI RES MODELS SUCH AS
THE HRRR AND LOCAL WRF...THESE BANDS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
THE REGION WITH VARYING INTENSITY INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE
WEAKENING LATE IN THE DAY AS THE LOW STARTS TO FINALLY TRACK
EASTWARD. LIGHTER RAIN WILL STILL BE LIKELY THIS EVENING FOR MANY
LOCATIONS...BUT THE INTENSITY SHOULD WANE AS WE LOSE THE
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS. WITH THE CLOUDS...RAIN AND PERSISTENT
NORTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE MUCH
TODAY WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL START TO PULL AWAY FROM THE COAST
TONIGHT AND FARTHER OUT TO SEA. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE LARGE
GEOGRAPHIC SCOPE OF THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION WE WILL STILL BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME...WITH PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. SO OVERCAST CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY LIGHT RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF BY
FRIDAY MORNING. WILL MENTION LIKELY POPS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EVENING...TAPERING TO CHANCE AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS THE LOW TRACKS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST. AS THE FLOW REGIME
STARTS TO TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY FRIDAY MORNING...SOME UPSLOPE
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST AND
WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY.
WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LOOSEN ITS GRIP ON THE REGION
FRIDAY...THE FLOW WILL STILL BE MAINLY CYCLONIC WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WRAPPING BACK AROUND THE LOW. SO WE ARE EXPECTING PLENTY OF
CLOUDS DESPITE CHANCES FOR RAIN DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHANCE BY
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...IT WILL BE A SEASONABLY COOL DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THURSDAY. A FEW BREAKS OF
SUN MAY BE POSSIBLE TOWARDS SUNSET SOUTH AND WEST OF ALBANY.
SKIES EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CLEAR FRIDAY NIGHT...AS A SMALL SURFACE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS DUE TO LESS CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER... THE
NEXT SYSTEM WILL ALREADY BE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY
EARLY SATURDAY...AS A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
STRONG UPPER JET APPROACHES. SO SATURDAY SHOULD START OUT WITH SOME
SUNSHINE...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT LATE IN THE DAY. WITH ENOUGH SUNSHINE...HIGH TEMPS
COULD REACH THE LOWER 60S IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER
SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL AFFECT THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
LATEST MODEL RUNS TRACK THESE SYSTEMS FURTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS...WHICH RESULTS IN LESS PCPN ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ON
SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THIS SYSTEM WILL MAINLY PRODUCE
PCPN ACROSS NORTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...WITH LITTLE IF ANY PCPN
ACROSS SOUTHEAST AREAS AND MOST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. HAVE FORECAST
LIKELY POPS OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT...DECREASING TO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. ON SUNDAY POPS WILL RANGE FROM
HIGH CHANCE LEVELS OVER THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO SLIGHT CHANCE
OR DRY CONDITIONS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL STILL BE MILD WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S. FOLLOWING THE TROF PASSAGE...IT WILL TURN BLUSTERY WITH
SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN NORMAL TEMPS ON SUNDAY...HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO
BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER TO
START THE NEW WORK WEEK. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30 TO 40
DEGREE RANGE. HIGHS MONDAY 50 TO 60. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID
30S TO LOWER 40S. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S.
DURING TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WED AFTN AND EVENING. MOST OF
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY...BUT POPS ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO BETWEEN
20 AND 40 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
40S. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF NEW JERSEY WILL
TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
PROVIDING A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AS OF 700 AM...WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF
TAF SITES...BUT CIGS/VSBYS MAINLY IN THE MVFR TO OCCASIONAL VFR
RANGE. THE RAIN AND MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE TAF
SITES THROUGH THE MORNING. ALTHOUGH THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH IFR
CONDITIONS REPORTED DURING THE NIGHT...HAVE INCLUDE SOME TEMPO
GROUPS FOR IFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH 14Z AT KALB/KPSF WHERE IT
APPEARS THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL DURING THIS PERIOD.
DURING THE AFTERNOON...KPOU WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR AS THE
RAIN TAPERS TO -SHRA. ELSEWHERE...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING...THEN IMPROVE TO VFR AT KALB AND KGFL AFTER MIDNIGHT.
AT KPSF...VSBYS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR TONIGHT...BUT CIGS WILL REMAIN
MVFR.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AT ALL THE TAF SITES AT 8 TO 12
KTS...WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM CENTERED SOUTH OF CAPE COD...WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF RAINFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY PULL
AWAY FROM THE REGION AND MOVE OUT TO SEA ON FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL
FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL ONLY BE 70 PERCENT OR GREATER
TODAY. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED BE BETWEEN 90 AND 100
PERCENT. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF AROUND 50 TO 65
PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS TODAY WILL BE NORTHERLY AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS
NEAR 20 MPH. WINDS TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15
MPH...INCREASING TO AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH ON FRIDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
PERIODS OF RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. THE RAIN WILL FALL MODERATE TO BRIEFLY
HEAVY IN INTENSITY AT TIMES. THROUGH TONIGHT...ABOUT AN ADDITIONAL
INCH OF RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY UP TO TWO INCHES
ACROSS THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS IN
SOUTHERN VERMONT...THE BERKSHIRES AND TACONICS. DUE TO RECENT DRY
WEATHER...THIS RAINFALL IS RATHER BENEFICIAL TO THE REGION. THERE
WILL BE SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO RIVER
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. THERE MAY BE SOME PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS OR FIELDS...OR IN POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS...BUT
THE IMPACT SHOULD BE RATHER MINIMAL.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...KL/GJM
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/JPV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
646 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM CENTERED SOUTH OF CAPE COD...WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF RAINFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY PULL
AWAY FROM THE REGION AND MOVE OUT TO SEA ON FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL
FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 645 AM EDT...BANDS OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN
CONTINUE TO MOVE FROM EAST TO WEST AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
OF A SPRAWLING VERTICALLY STACKED COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. STRONG EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE
LOW LEVELS RESULTING IN A CONVEYOR-BELT OF MOISTURE FROM THE
ATLANTIC. CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS RESULTING IN MODERATE TO BRIEFLY
HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD. SOME
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS AND OTHER POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS IS
LIKELY...BUT SHOULD NOT POSE ANY SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS. REFER
TO HYDRO SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.
THE CHALLENGING ASPECT HAS BEEN A RATHER SHARP GRADIENT TO THE RAIN
SHIED...WHICH HAS ALLOWED AREAS SUCH AS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND
MOHAWK VALLEY TO REMAIN GENERALLY RAIN-FREE AS OF 645 AM. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION LOWER POPS IN THESE AREAS UNTIL LATER THIS
MORNING WHEN AT LEAST SOME RAIN WILL IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY REACH
MUCH OF THIS AREA. LOCATIONS FROM AROUND ROUTE 28 NEAR OLD FORGE
NORTHWARD MAY NOT RECEIVE ANY MEASURABLE RAIN THOUGH...SO WILL
GENERALLY MENTION CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY POPS.
BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AS WELL AS OUTPUT FROM HI RES MODELS SUCH AS
THE HRRR AND LOCAL WRF...THESE BANDS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
THE REGION WITH VARYING INTENSITY INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE
WEAKENING LATE IN THE DAY AS THE LOW STARTS TO FINALLY TRACK
EASTWARD. LIGHTER RAIN WILL STILL BE LIKELY THIS EVENING FOR MANY
LOCATIONS...BUT THE INTENSITY SHOULD WANE AS WE LOSE THE
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS. WITH THE CLOUDS...RAIN AND PERSISTENT
NORTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE MUCH
TODAY WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL START TO PULL AWAY FROM THE COAST
TONIGHT AND FARTHER OUT TO SEA. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE LARGE
GEOGRAPHIC SCOPE OF THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION WE WILL STILL BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME...WITH PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. SO OVERCAST CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY LIGHT RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF BY
FRIDAY MORNING. WILL MENTION LIKELY POPS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EVENING...TAPERING TO CHANCE AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS THE LOW TRACKS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST. AS THE FLOW REGIME
STARTS TO TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY FRIDAY MORNING...SOME UPSLOPE
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST AND
WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY.
WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LOOSEN ITS GRIP ON THE REGION
FRIDAY...THE FLOW WILL STILL BE MAINLY CYCLONIC WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WRAPPING BACK AROUND THE LOW. SO WE ARE EXPECTING PLENTY OF
CLOUDS DESPITE CHANCES FOR RAIN DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHANCE BY
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...IT WILL BE A SEASONABLY COOL DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THURSDAY. A FEW BREAKS OF
SUN MAY BE POSSIBLE TOWARDS SUNSET SOUTH AND WEST OF ALBANY.
SKIES EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CLEAR FRIDAY NIGHT...AS A SMALL SURFACE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS DUE TO LESS CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER... THE
NEXT SYSTEM WILL ALREADY BE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY
EARLY SATURDAY...AS A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
STRONG UPPER JET APPROACHES. SO SATURDAY SHOULD START OUT WITH SOME
SUNSHINE...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT LATE IN THE DAY. WITH ENOUGH SUNSHINE...HIGH TEMPS
COULD REACH THE LOWER 60S IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER
SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL AFFECT THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
LATEST MODEL RUNS TRACK THESE SYSTEMS FURTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS...WHICH RESULTS IN LESS PCPN ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ON
SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THIS SYSTEM WILL MAINLY PRODUCE
PCPN ACROSS NORTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...WITH LITTLE IF ANY PCPN
ACROSS SOUTHEAST AREAS AND MOST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. HAVE FORECAST
LIKELY POPS OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT...DECREASING TO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. ON SUNDAY POPS WILL RANGE FROM
HIGH CHANCE LEVELS OVER THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO SLIGHT CHANCE
OR DRY CONDITIONS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL STILL BE MILD WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S. FOLLOWING THE TROF PASSAGE...IT WILL TURN BLUSTERY WITH
SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN NORMAL TEMPS ON SUNDAY...HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO
BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER TO
START THE NEW WORK WEEK. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30 TO 40
DEGREE RANGE. HIGHS MONDAY 50 TO 60. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID
30S TO LOWER 40S. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S.
DURING TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WED AFTN AND EVENING. MOST OF
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY...BUT POPS ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO BETWEEN
20 AND 40 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
40S. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF THE DELMARVA
WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
PROVIDING A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
AS OF 130 AM...PRIMARY RAINFALL BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE UPPER LOW
IS NOW ORIENTED EAST TO WEST AND WAS AFFECTING THE KALB/KPSF TAF
SITES. THE BAND HAD ALREADY SHIFTED NORTH OF THE KPOU TAF SITE AND
HAD NOT YET REACHED THE KGFL TAF SITE. THIS BAND IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY SHIFT NORTHWARD AND BECOME ORIENTED MORE NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...EXPECT MVFR TO
OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS AT THE KALB/KPSF TAF SITES THROUGH AROUND
16Z/17Z...THEN MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING
AT 00Z FRIDAY.
AT KPOU...EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF
PERIOD...POSSIBLY BECOMING VFR AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW
SHIFTS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST.
AT KGFL...VFR VSBYS/MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 08Z...THEN
DETERIORATE TO MVFR TO OCCASIONALLY IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 08Z AS THE
RAIN BAND SHIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE KGFL AREA. DURING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AT ALL THE TAF SITES AT 10 TO 14
KTS...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM CENTERED SOUTH OF CAPE COD...WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF RAINFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY PULL
AWAY FROM THE REGION AND MOVE OUT TO SEA ON FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL
FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL ONLY BE 70 PERCENT OR GREATER
TODAY. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED BE BETWEEN 90 AND 100
PERCENT. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF AROUND 50 TO 65
PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS TODAY WILL BE NORTHERLY AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS
NEAR 20 MPH. WINDS TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15
MPH...INCREASING TO AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH ON FRIDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
PERIODS OF RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. THE RAIN WILL FALL MODERATE TO BRIEFLY
HEAVY IN INTENSITY AT TIMES. THROUGH TONIGHT...ABOUT AN ADDITIONAL
INCH OF RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY UP TO TWO INCHES
ACROSS THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS IN
SOUTHERN VERMONT...THE BERKSHIRES AND TACONICS. DUE TO RECENT DRY
WEATHER...THIS RAINFALL IS RATHER BENEFICIAL TO THE REGION. THERE
WILL BE SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO RIVER
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. THERE MAY BE SOME PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS OR FIELDS...OR IN POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS...BUT
THE IMPACT SHOULD BE RATHER MINIMAL.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/JPV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
431 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM CENTERED SOUTH OF CAPE COD...WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF RAINFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY PULL
AWAY FROM THE REGION AND MOVE OUT TO SEA ON FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL
FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT...BANDS OF RAIN MOVING FROM EAST TO WEST CONTINUE
TO PINWHEEL AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SPRAWLING VERTICALLY
STACKED COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.
STRONG EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS RESULTING IN A
CONVEYOR-BELT OF MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC. CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS
RESULTING IN MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE REGION...ESPECIALLY FOR THE TACONICS...NORTHERN
BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. SOME PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS AND
OTHER POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS IS LIKELY...BUT SHOULD NOT POSE ANY
SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS. REFER TO HYDRO SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.
THE CHALLENGING ASPECT HAS BEEN A RATHER SHARP GRADIENT TO THE RAIN
SHIED...WHICH HAS ALLOWED AREAS SUCH AS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND
MOHAWK VALLEY TO REMAIN GENERALLY RAIN-FREE AS OF 4 AM. WILL LOWER
POPS IN THESE AREAS UNTIL LATER THIS MORNING WHEN AT LEAST SOME RAIN
WILL IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY REACH MUCH OF THIS AREA. LOCATIONS FROM
AROUND ROUTE 28 NEAR OLD FORGE NORTHWARD MAY NOT RECEIVE ANY
MEASURABLE RAIN THOUGH...SO WILL GENERALLY MENTION CHANCE POPS.
BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AS WELL AS OUTPUT FROM HI RES MODELS SUCH AS
THE HRRR AND LOCAL WRF...THESE BANDS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
THE REGION WITH VARYING INTENSITY INTO THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE
WEAKENING LATE IN THE DAY AS THE LOW STARTS TO FINALLY TRACK
EASTWARD. LIGHTER RAIN WILL STILL BE LIKELY THIS EVENING FOR MANY
LOCATIONS...BUT THE INTENSITY SHOULD WANE AS WE LOSE THE CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS. WITH THE CLOUDS...RAIN AND PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS AT
THE SURFACE...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE MUCH TODAY WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL START TO PULL AWAY FROM THE COAST
TONIGHT AND FARTHER OUT TO SEA. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE LARGE
GEOGRAPHIC SCOPE OF THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION WE WILL STILL BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME...WITH PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. SO OVERCAST CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY LIGHT RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF BY
FRIDAY MORNING. WILL MENTION LIKELY POPS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EVENING...TAPERING TO CHANCE AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS THE LOW TRACKS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST. AS THE FLOW REGIME
STARTS TO TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY FRIDAY MORNING...SOME UPSLOPE
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST AND
WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY.
WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LOOSEN ITS GRIP ON THE REGION
FRIDAY...THE FLOW WILL STILL BE MAINLY CYCLONIC WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WRAPPING BACK AROUND THE LOW. SO WE ARE EXPECTING PLENTY OF
CLOUDS DESPITE CHANCES FOR RAIN DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHANCE BY
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...IT WILL BE A SEASONABLY COOL DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THURSDAY. A FEW BREAKS OF
SUN MAY BE POSSIBLE TOWARDS SUNSET SOUTH AND WEST OF ALBANY.
SKIES EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CLEAR FRIDAY NIGHT...AS A SMALL SURFACE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS DUE TO LESS CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER... THE
NEXT SYSTEM WILL ALREADY BE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY
EARLY SATURDAY...AS A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
STRONG UPPER JET APPROACHES. SO SATURDAY SHOULD START OUT WITH SOME
SUNSHINE...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT LATE IN THE DAY. WITH ENOUGH SUNSHINE...HIGH TEMPS
COULD REACH THE LOWER 60S IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER
SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL AFFECT THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
LATEST MODEL RUNS TRACK THESE SYSTEMS FURTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS...WHICH RESULTS IN LESS PCPN ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ON
SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THIS SYSTEM WILL MAINLY PRODUCE
PCPN ACROSS NORTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...WITH LITTLE IF ANY PCPN
ACROSS SOUTHEAST AREAS AND MOST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. HAVE FORECAST
LIKELY POPS OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT...DECREASING TO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. ON SUNDAY POPS WILL RANGE FROM
HIGH CHANCE LEVELS OVER THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO SLIGHT CHANCE
OR DRY CONDITIONS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL STILL BE MILD WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S. FOLLOWING THE TROF PASSAGE...IT WILL TURN BLUSTERY WITH
SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN NORMAL TEMPS ON SUNDAY...HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO
BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER TO
START THE NEW WORK WEEK. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30 TO 40
DEGREE RANGE. HIGHS MONDAY 50 TO 60. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID
30S TO LOWER 40S. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S.
DURING TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WED AFTN AND EVENING. MOST OF
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY...BUT POPS ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO BETWEEN
20 AND 40 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
40S. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF THE DELMARVA
WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
PROVIDING A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
AS OF 130 AM...PRIMARY RAINFALL BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE UPPER LOW
IS NOW ORIENTED EAST TO WEST AND WAS AFFECTING THE KALB/KPSF TAF
SITES. THE BAND HAD ALREADY SHIFTED NORTH OF THE KPOU TAF SITE AND
HAD NOT YET REACHED THE KGFL TAF SITE. THIS BAND IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY SHIFT NORTHWARD AND BECOME ORIENTED MORE NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...EXPECT MVFR TO
OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS AT THE KALB/KPSF TAF SITES THROUGH AROUND
16Z/17Z...THEN MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING
AT 00Z FRIDAY.
AT KPOU...EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF
PERIOD...POSSIBLY BECOMING VFR AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW
SHIFTS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST.
AT KGFL...VFR VSBYS/MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 08Z...THEN
DETERIORATE TO MVFR TO OCCASIONALLY IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 08Z AS THE
RAIN BAND SHIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE KGFL AREA. DURING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AT ALL THE TAF SITES AT 10 TO 14
KTS...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM CENTERED SOUTH OF CAPE COD...WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF RAINFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY PULL
AWAY FROM THE REGION AND MOVE OUT TO SEA ON FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL
FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL ONLY BE 70 PERCENT OR GREATER
TODAY. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED BE BETWEEN 90 AND 100
PERCENT. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF AROUND 50 TO 65
PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS TODAY WILL BE NORTHERLY AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS
NEAR 20 MPH. WINDS TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15
MPH...INCREASING TO AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH ON FRIDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
PERIODS OF RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. THE RAIN WILL FALL MODERATE TO BRIEFLY
HEAVY IN INTENSITY AT TIMES. THROUGH TONIGHT...ABOUT AN ADDITIONAL
INCH OF RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY UP TO TWO INCHES
ACROSS THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS IN
SOUTHERN VERMONT...THE BERKSHIRES AND TACONICS. DUE TO RECENT DRY
WEATHER...THIS RAINFALL IS RATHER BENEFICIAL TO THE REGION. THERE
WILL BE SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO RIVER
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. THERE MAY BE SOME PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS OR FIELDS...OR IN POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS...BUT
THE IMPACT SHOULD BE RATHER MINIMAL.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/JPV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
414 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM CENTERED SOUTH OF CAPE COD...WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF RAINFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY PULL
AWAY FROM THE REGION AND MOVE OUT TO SEA ON FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL
FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT...BANDS OF RAIN MOVING FROM EAST TO WEST CONTINUE
TO PINWHEEL AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SPRAWLING VERTICALLY
STACKED COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.
STRONG EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS RESULTING IN A
CONVEYOR-BELT OF MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC. CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS
RESULTING IN MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE REGION...ESPECIALLY FOR THE TACONICS...NORTHERN
BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. SOME PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS AND
OTHER POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS IS LIKELY...BUT SHOULD NOT POSE ANY
SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS. REFER TO HYDRO SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.
THE CHALLENGING ASPECT HAS BEEN A RATHER SHARP GRADIENT TO THE RAIN
SHIED...WHICH HAS ALLOWED AREAS SUCH AS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND
MOHAWK VALLEY TO REMAIN GENERALLY RAIN-FREE AS OF 4 AM. WILL LOWER
POPS IN THESE AREAS UNTIL LATER THIS MORNING WHEN AT LEAST SOME RAIN
WILL IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY REACH MUCH OF THIS AREA. LOCATIONS FROM
AROUND ROUTE 28 NEAR OLD FORGE NORTHWARD MAY NOT RECEIVE ANY
MEASURABLE RAIN THOUGH...SO WILL GENERALLY MENTION CHANCE POPS.
BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AS WELL AS OUTPUT FROM HI RES MODELS SUCH AS
THE HRRR AND LOCAL WRF...THESE BANDS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
THE REGION WITH VARYING INTENSITY INTO THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE
WEAKENING LATE IN THE DAY AS THE LOW STARTS TO FINALLY TRACK
EASTWARD. LIGHTER RAIN WILL STILL BE LIKELY THIS EVENING FOR MANY
LOCATIONS...BUT THE INTENSITY SHOULD WANE AS WE LOSE THE CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS. WITH THE CLOUDS...RAIN AND PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS AT
THE SURFACE...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE MUCH TODAY WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL START TO PULL AWAY FROM THE COAST
TONIGHT AND FARTHER OUT TO SEA. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE LARGE
GEOGRAPHIC SCOPE OF THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION WE WILL STILL BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME...WITH PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. SO OVERCAST CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY LIGHT RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF BY
FRIDAY MORNING. WILL MENTION LIKELY POPS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EVENING...TAPERING TO CHANCE AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS THE LOW TRACKS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST. AS THE FLOW REGIME
STARTS TO TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY FRIDAY MORNING...SOME UPSLOPE
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST AND
WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY.
WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LOOSEN ITS GRIP ON THE REGION
FRIDAY...THE FLOW WILL STILL BE MAINLY CYCLONIC WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WRAPPING BACK AROUND THE LOW. SO WE ARE EXPECTING PLENTY OF
CLOUDS DESPITE CHANCES FOR RAIN DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHANCE BY
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...IT WILL BE A SEASONABLY COOL DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THURSDAY. A FEW BREAKS OF
SUN MAY BE POSSIBLE TOWARDS SUNSET SOUTH AND WEST OF ALBANY.
SKIES EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CLEAR FRIDAY NIGHT...AS A SMALL SURFACE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS DUE TO LESS CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER... THE
NEXT SYSTEM WILL ALREADY BE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY
EARLY SATURDAY...AS A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
STRONG UPPER JET APPROACHES. SO SATURDAY SHOULD START OUT WITH SOME
SUNSHINE...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT LATE IN THE DAY. WITH ENOUGH SUNSHINE...HIGH TEMPS
COULD REACH THE LOWER 60S IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY INITIALLY UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS DURING THE WEEKEND BEFORE IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR THE
START OF NEXT WEEK.
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE COASTAL LOW AND DEEP
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXITING NORTHEAST TO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...WITH THE FORECAST AREA UNDERNEATH A NORTHWEST FLOW
REGIME. A POTENT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL QUICKLY DIVE
SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN CANADA IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW SATURDAY AND
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST
OF THE CAPITAL REGION TO FAVORABLE UPSLOPE AREAS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. ENOUGH FORCING LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE TO MENTION WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION. SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO THE DAY SUNDAY AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND FOR THE START OF
NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHTS
RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION. DRY WEATHER AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY ALONG WITH SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS POTENTIALLY REACHING 70 ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY.
LONG TERM GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE HANDLING THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT THAT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE
COUNTRY AND MOVE EAST DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTION OF NEXT
WEEK. HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES...WITH THE 12Z GFS BEING
SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER THAN THE 12Z ECMWF DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF SLOWS THE FRONTAL
PROGRESSION AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THE WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE MID-HUDSON
VALLEY...BEFORE WARMING FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK INTO THE MID 50S
TO MID 60S ACROSS THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF THE DELMARVA
WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
PROVIDING A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
AS OF 130 AM...PRIMARY RAINFALL BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE UPPER LOW
IS NOW ORIENTED EAST TO WEST AND WAS AFFECTING THE KALB/KPSF TAF
SITES. THE BAND HAD ALREADY SHIFTED NORTH OF THE KPOU TAF SITE AND
HAD NOT YET REACHED THE KGFL TAF SITE. THIS BAND IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY SHIFT NORTHWARD AND BECOME ORIENTED MORE NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...EXPECT MVFR TO
OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS AT THE KALB/KPSF TAF SITES THROUGH AROUND
16Z/17Z...THEN MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING
AT 00Z FRIDAY.
AT KPOU...EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF
PERIOD...POSSIBLY BECOMING VFR AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW
SHIFTS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST.
AT KGFL...VFR VSBYS/MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 08Z...THEN
DETERIORATE TO MVFR TO OCCASIONALLY IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 08Z AS THE
RAIN BAND SHIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE KGFL AREA. DURING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AT ALL THE TAF SITES AT 10 TO 14
KTS...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM CENTERED SOUTH OF CAPE COD...WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF RAINFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY PULL
AWAY FROM THE REGION AND MOVE OUT TO SEA ON FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL
FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL ONLY BE 70 PERCENT OR GREATER
TODAY. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED BE BETWEEN 90 AND 100
PERCENT. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF AROUND 50 TO 65
PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS TODAY WILL BE NORTHERLY AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS
NEAR 20 MPH. WINDS TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15
MPH...INCREASING TO AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH ON FRIDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
PERIODS OF RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. THE RAIN WILL FALL MODERATE TO BRIEFLY
HEAVY IN INTENSITY AT TIMES. THROUGH TONIGHT...ABOUT AN ADDITIONAL
INCH OF RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY UP TO TWO INCHES
ACROSS THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS IN
SOUTHERN VERMONT...THE BERKSHIRES AND TACONICS. DUE TO RECENT DRY
WEATHER...THIS RAINFALL IS RATHER BENEFICIAL TO THE REGION. THERE
WILL BE SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO RIVER
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. THERE MAY BE SOME PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS OR FIELDS...OR IN POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS...BUT
THE IMPACT SHOULD BE RATHER MINIMAL.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/JPV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
903 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014
...DRYING OUT WITH A RETURN TO SUNSHINE THIS WEEKEND...
.UPDATE...A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST BUT THEY
ARE LIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE TO FADE AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE
IN FROM THE WEST. THE MIAMI SOUNDING SHOWS THAT THE PWAT HAS
FALLEN TO 1.64 INCHES AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
MAX RAINFALL AMOUNT TODAY WAS REGISTERED JUST EAST OF DOWNTOWN
HOMESTEAD...WITH A MESONET SITE REGISTERING 5.11 INCHES. SOME
MINOR STREET FLOODING WAS REPORTED IN SE MIAMI-DADE COUNTY TODAY,
BUT THE HEAVIEST RAIN STAYED JUST OFF THE COAST TO PREVENT MORE
SERIOUS FLOODING FROM OCCURRING.
A NICE WEEKEND IS IN STORE AHEAD WITH A RETURN TO SUNSHINE!
/GREGORIA
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 732 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014/
AVIATION...
BACK EDGE OF BKN/OVC CLOUDS BETWEEN 3000 AND 5000 FT ASSOCIATED
WITH LOW PRES OVER WRN BAHAMAS IS CURRENTLY CLOSE TO THE EAST
COAST TERMINAL SITES AND SHOULD CLEAR THE COAST BETWEEN 03Z-05Z.
CONDITIONS REMAINING VFR DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS.
FEW/SCT CLOUDS 3000-4000 FT EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY. WINDS THIS
EVENING NE 15-20 KT BECOMING MORE N TOWARDS DAYBREAK AND
CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY. /MOLLEDA
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014/
DISCUSSION...
THE MAJOR SYNOPTIC FEATURES INFLUENCING THE REGION INCLUDE AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH BUILDING INTO THE EASTERN GULF...A SURFACE LOW EXTENDING
ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS AND
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS. WITH STRONG
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION...OVER-RUNNING ACROSS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO GENERATE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND SOUTH FLORIDA...WITH MOST OF THE SHOWERS
CONCENTRATED ACROSS BISCAYNE BAY AND SOUTHEAST MIAMI DADE COUNTY.
THE GENERAL CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE IS FOR A DRYING TREND OVER
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF MID TO UPPER
LEVEL DRIER AIR STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE REGION...THE BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE STRAITS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD AND HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINNING TO BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEAST SHOULD ALL
CONTRIBUTE TO THE DRYING TREND. THE GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE
LATEST HRRR RUN...SEEMED A LITTLE TOO FAST IN THE DRYING TREND AND
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE SOUTHEAST
PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA IS INDICATED IN THE FORECAST THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT. BUT BY 12Z SATURDAY ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
INDICATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS WITH NO SHOWERS FOR
THE PENINSULA.
THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR THE ATLANTIC COAST BEACHES HAS BEEN
EXTENDED THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY WITH HAZARDOUS SEAS ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z
SATURDAY AND COULD LINGER A BIT LONGER...MAY HAVE TO ADJUST THE
RIP CURRENT RISK WITH UPDATED FORECAST AND CONDITIONS ON
SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE AND STABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
PREVAIL SATURDAY THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH MAINLY
CLIMATOLOGICAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS IS THROUGH
12Z SATURDAY. FOR THE GULF WATERS...THE SCA IS MAINLY FOR WINDS
ABOVE 20 KNOTS...IN THE 20 TO 22 KNOT RANGE...AND MAINLY IN THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE OFF SHORE WATERS AND THE NEAR SHORE WATERS
WEST OF MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE
WIND FORECAST...BUT REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 20 KNOTS ARE OBSERVED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA
KEYS AND WEST OF KEY WEST.
FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS...REGIONAL WINDS IN EXCESS OF 20 KNOTS ARE NOTED
THE ATLANTIC WATERS...INCLUDING BISCAYNE BAY. IN ADDITION SEAS
ABOVE ADVISORY LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO STAY ABOVE ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z SATURDAY AND FORECAST TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE
THEREAFTER.
AS CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 71 81 68 81 / 10 10 10 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 73 81 70 82 / 20 10 10 10
MIAMI 72 82 68 83 / 20 10 0 10
NAPLES 65 81 64 83 / 10 10 0 0
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR FLZ173.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR FLZ168-172-173.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ630-650-651-
670-671.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ630.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR GMZ656-657-676.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
851 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014
.DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE FLORIDA STRAITS WILL CONTINUE
EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE BAHAMAS INTO TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW
N/NE WINDS TO BECOME N/NW AND DECREASE ACROSS THE REGION. JUST
ABOVE THE SFC LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN N/NE AND WILL CONTINUE
TO TRANSPORT MARINE STRATOCU ONTO THE COAST WITH SKIES RANGING
FROM PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT. WHILE FARTHER INLAND SKIES
WILL ALTERNATE BETWEEN MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. DESPITE
LOCAL WRF AND HRRR WANTING TO GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT NOT SEEING ANY EVIDENCE ON RADAR OF LIGHT
PRECIP WITH THIS LOWER CLOUD DECK. ALSO MOS POPS REMAIN QUITE LOW
SO WILL THEREFORE KEEP RAIN CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST TONIGHT.
TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S OVER MUCH OF THE
INTERIOR AND VOLUSIA COAST. SCATTERED CLOUDS AND LOW LEVEL ONSHORE
WINDS SOUTH OF THE CAPE SHOULD KEEP MIN TEMPS FROM FALLING LOWER
THAN THE LOW/MID 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS. CIGS FROM ONSHORE
MOVING MARINE STRATOCU FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE 3KFT.
&&
.MARINE...WINDS AT SETTLEMENT POINT STILL NEAR 20 KNOTS AND NAM
GUIDANCE INDICATING SOME INCREASE IN N/NE WINDS POSSIBLE OVER THE
SRN WATERS INTO TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES E/NE OVER THE
BAHAMAS. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SEAS UP TO 7 FEET...
MAINLY OVER THE GULF STREAM WATERS OF THE TREASURE COAST. WILL
THEREFORE CONTINUE SCA HEADLINES FOR THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF
SEBASTIAN INLET OVERNIGHT. FARTHER NORTH...N/NE WINDS UP TO 10-15
KNOTS EXPECTED WITH SEAS UP TO 3-5 FEET.
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.
&&
$$
WEITLICH/PENDERGRAST
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
732 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014
.AVIATION...
BACK EDGE OF BKN/OVC CLOUDS BETWEEN 3000 AND 5000 FT ASSOCIATED
WITH LOW PRES OVER WRN BAHAMAS IS CURRENTLY CLOSE TO THE EAST
COAST TERMINAL SITES AND SHOULD CLEAR THE COAST BETWEEN 03Z-05Z.
CONDITIONS REMAINING VFR DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS.
FEW/SCT CLOUDS 3000-4000 FT EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY. WINDS THIS
EVENING NE 15-20 KT BECOMING MORE N TOWARDS DAYBREAK AND
CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY. /MOLLEDA
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014/
DISCUSSION...
THE MAJOR SYNOPTIC FEATURES INFLUENCING THE REGION INCLUDE AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH BUILDING INTO THE EASTERN GULF...A SURFACE LOW EXTENDING
ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS AND
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS. WITH STRONG
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION...OVER-RUNNING ACROSS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO GENERATE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND SOUTH FLORIDA...WITH MOST OF THE SHOWERS
CONCENTRATED ACROSS BISCAYNE BAY AND SOUTHEAST MIAMI DADE COUNTY.
THE GENERAL CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE IS FOR A DRYING TREND OVER
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF MID TO UPPER
LEVEL DRIER AIR STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE REGION...THE BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE STRAITS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD AND HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINNING TO BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEAST SHOULD ALL
CONTRIBUTE TO THE DRYING TREND. THE GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE
LATEST HRRR RUN...SEEMED A LITTLE TOO FAST IN THE DRYING TREND AND
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE SOUTHEAST
PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA IS INDICATED IN THE FORECAST THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT. BUT BY 12Z SATURDAY ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
INDICATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS WITH NO SHOWERS FOR
THE PENINSULA.
THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR THE ATLANTIC COAST BEACHES HAS BEEN
EXTENDED THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY WITH HAZARDOUS SEAS ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z
SATURDAY AND COULD LINGER A BIT LONGER...MAY HAVE TO ADJUST THE
RIP CURRENT RISK WITH UPDATED FORECAST AND CONDITIONS ON
SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE AND STABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
PREVAIL SATURDAY THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH MAINLY
CLIMATOLOGICAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS IS THROUGH
12Z SATURDAY. FOR THE GULF WATERS...THE SCA IS MAINLY FOR WINDS
ABOVE 20 KNOTS...IN THE 20 TO 22 KNOT RANGE...AND MAINLY IN THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE OFF SHORE WATERS AND THE NEAR SHORE WATERS
WEST OF MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE
WIND FORECAST...BUT REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 20 KNOTS ARE OBSERVED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA
KEYS AND WEST OF KEY WEST.
FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS...REGIONAL WINDS IN EXCESS OF 20 KNOTS ARE NOTED
THE ATLANTIC WATERS...INCLUDING BISCAYNE BAY. IN ADDITION SEAS
ABOVE ADVISORY LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO STAY ABOVE ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z SATURDAY AND FORECAST TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE
THEREAFTER.
AS CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 71 81 68 81 / 10 10 10 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 73 81 70 82 / 20 10 10 10
MIAMI 72 82 68 83 / 20 10 0 10
NAPLES 65 81 64 83 / 10 10 0 0
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR FLZ173.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR FLZ168-172-
173.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ630-650-651-
670-671.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR AMZ630.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR GMZ656-657-676.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...57/DG
LONG TERM....57/DG
AVIATION.....59/MOLLEDA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
954 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014
.DISCUSSION...
947 PM CDT
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH THIS EVENING. MOST AREAS WILL
REMAIN DRY...AND EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE INTO NW INDIANA AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AND EAST OF THE AREA SHORTLY THEREAFTER.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT SOME FOG TO REFORM AGAIN TONIGHT...WITH WESTERN
AREAS FAVORED DUE TO A THINNING AND LOWERING OF CLOUDS.
KMD
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
304 PM CDT
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...
BROAD SURFACE HIGH STRETCHES FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON WHILE
LOW PRESSURE LIES OVER ONTARIO WITH A COLD FRONT STRETCHING INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. A NARROW RIBBON OF MOISTURE IS ANALYZED OUT AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT WITH 60 DEGREE DEWPOINTS STRETCHING NORTH INTO
NORTHERN IOWA THIS AFTERNOON...AND JUST OFF THE DECK A CORRIDOR OF
LOW/MID LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION IS DRIVING AT LEAST A FEW VERY WEAK
RADAR RETURNS OVER FAR SE MN AND NE IA. RAP/HRRR GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS
AREA PERSISTING ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS THIS EVENING WITH THE
CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS. GIVEN THE VERY SPARSE COVERAGE SO FAR
UPSTREAM AND THE DRY SOUNDINGS/LIMITED DURATION OF FORCING...NOT
BITING OFF ON PRECIP MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...BUT WILL
MAINTAIN SOME LOW END SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SINCE THERE ARE SOME
INGREDIENTS IN PLACE.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
WEAK FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY ON SATURDAY WITH DRY AIR
FILTERING BACK INTO THE REGION AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
AREA AND SUBSIDENCE SETS IN OVERHEAD. EXPECT DEW POINTS TO MIX OUT
NICELY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS
WHERE DEW POINTS MAY DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S. THE DRY
CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A NICE RESPONSE FROM DIABATIC HEATING
WHICH WILL RESULT IN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER TOMORROW.
MEANWHILE...SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
SATURDAY DIRECTLY OVERHEAD EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WHICH WILL ALLOW
FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING SUNDAY MORNING WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO
THE 30S IN OUTLYING AREAS AND SOME OF THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS.
ELSEWHERE EXPECT LOW 40S WITH DOWNTOWN CHICAGO STAYING PROPPED UP IN
THE MID 40S. TEMPERATURES MAY BE A BIT TRICKY SUNDAY WITH WARM
ADVECTION ALOFT INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
SURFACE HIGH. A COOL STARTING POINT AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE DAY WILL KEEP HIGHS ONLY INTO THE 60S SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUCKLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DIGS FROM THE PAC NW INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. BROAD SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL SHIFT EAST TOWARDS THE MIDWEST
EARLY MONDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASING OUT AHEAD AND A CORRIDOR
OF MODERATE TO STRONG MID LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION LIFTING ACROSS THE
LOCAL FORECAST AREA ON THE NOSE OF A 40KT OR SO LOW LEVEL JET.
COLUMN IS FAIRLY DRY OUT AHEAD OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE BUT A NARROW
LAYER OF SATURATION COULD TAP INTO SOME MODEST INSTABILITY ROOTED
BETWEEN H7-H9. THIS DOES POINT TO SOME CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
THOUGH CHANCES ARE BETTER TO OUR NORTH WHERE THE MUCAPE ALIGNS
BETTER WITH THE FORCING FROM THE LOW LEVEL JET. EXPECT LOWERING
CLOUDS IN THE PREDAWN HOURS AS THE SURFACE WARM FRONT APPROACHES.
THE MID LEVELS DRY OUT AGAIN AND THE MOISTURE IS FAIRLY SHALLOW SO
ANY ADDITIONAL PRECIP EARLY ON MONDAY MAY JUST BE DRIZZLE. SURFACE
WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA MID MORNING MONDAY AND EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS ONCE IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH LOW CLOUD COVER EVENTUALLY
SCATTERING. H85 TEMPS WARM TO 15-16C WITH 17C BEING THE 99TH
PERCENTILE OF UPPER AIR CLIMO FOR THE END OF OCTOBER. SURFACE HIGHS
WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL...POSSIBLY PUSHING 20F ABOVE
NORMAL...THOUGH THE RECORD HIGH SHOULD BE SAFE. LEANED HEAVILY ON
EC/ECBC FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS MONDAY FORECASTING MID 70S...WITH UPPER
70S SOUTH OF I-80. THE WARMER CONDITIONS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
STRONGER WINDS HOWEVER WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 20 TO 25 MPH AND
POSSIBLY 30 MPH AT TIMES.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
MODELS ARE INDICATING A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO
DEVELOP OVER THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A COLD FRONT SWEEPING
ACROSS THE ARE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY BRINGING CHANCES FOR
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE LOW REALLY BEGINS TO DEEPEN IN EARNEST
AS IT LIFTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO CANADA TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH DRIVING POLAR AIR SOUTH INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES
AND A COLD POLAR HIGH GRAZING THE LOCAL AREA LATE NEXT WEEK. DETAILS
STILL MURKY THIS FAR OUT BUT DOES APPEAR WE COULD BE IN FOR A BIG
COOL DOWN LATE NEXT WEEK IN TIME FOR HALLOWEEN IF CURRENT GFS/ECMWF
RUNS PAN OUT.
DEUBELBEISS
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 00Z...
* LOWERING CIGS LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT...MVFR PROBABLE WITH
IFR/LIFR A LOW POSSIBILITY.
* MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.
* SLIGHT CHANCE OF -SHRA LATE THIS EVENING.
* IMPROVING CIG/VIS SATURDAY MORNING WITH BREEZY WEST-NORTHWEST
WINDS.
RATZER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z...
SUBTLE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAVE WAS OVER EASTERN IOWA EARLY THIS
EVENING...AND WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. AN
AREA OF IFR/LIFR CIGS AND FOG WAS LOCATED JUST AHEAD OF THIS WAVE
ACROSS EASTERN IOWA/SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...AND IS EXPECTED TO
ADVANCE INTO PARTS OF SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN AND WESTERN ILLINOIS
OVERNIGHT...AS LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TO ADVECT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE WAVE. A FASTER MOVING COLD FRONT WITH
A STRONG PUSH OF DRIER AIR WILL OVERTAKE THE WEAKER WAVE
OVERNIGHT. A FEW SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING AS
AN ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ENHANCES LIFT...THOUGH THESE
SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT AND FAIRLY ISOLATED.
LOW END VFR AND MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD EAST AS FAR AS
THE CHICAGO TERMINALS DURING THE LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS...
THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT THE LOWER IFR/LIFR CIGS OVER IOWA
WILL MAKE IT THIS FAR EAST AS THE LOW LEVEL MOIST AXIS GETS
PINCHED OFF BY THE FASTER COLD FRONT. THE SECOND FRONT WILL CLEAR
THE TERMINALS SATURDAY MORNING...WITH MUCH DRIER AIR SCOURING OUT
ANY LOW CLOUDS THAT DO FORM OVERNIGHT.
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT THIS EVENING WILL SHIFT TO
THE WEST WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE PRE-DAWN SATURDAY. WEST-
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KT WILL BECOME BREEZY WITH GUSTS NEAR 20
KT LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
RATZER
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 00Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE CIGS LOWERING TO LOWER END VFR LATER THIS
EVENING...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT. LOW
CONFIDENCE IN CIGS IFR/LIFR DEVELOPING.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT -SHRA COVERAGE WILL BE LOW LATE THIS
EVENING.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AND WEST WINDS SATURDAY.
RATZER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
SUNDAY...VFR. SLGT CHC SHRA/TSRA SUNDAY NIGHT. SE WINDS.
MONDAY...VFR BY DAY...SHRA/TSRA LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT. BREEZY
SOUTH WINDS.
TUESDAY...CHC SHRA/TSRA. MVFR POSSIBLE. SOUTHWEST-WEST WINDS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS.
RATZER
&&
.MARINE...
228 PM CDT
HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOWLY PUSHING EAST WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER
THE LAKE. A WEAK LAKE BREEZE HAS TURNED WINDS ONSHORE OVER LAKE
COUNTY IL. SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO 20-25 KT THIS EVENING WITH
OCNL 30 KT GUSTS PSBL OVER THE NORTH HALF OF THE LAKE OVERNIGHT.
WINDS TURN W 20-25 KT BEHIND THE FRONT AND SLOWLY BECOME NW SATURDAY
NIGHT. POINTS NORTH OF WILMETTE HARBOR MAY SEE OCNL GUSTS TO 25 KT
TOMORROW...BUT THINKING SUSTAINED SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE
MET. WINDS DIMINISH AS A HIGH MOVES OVER THE LAKE SUNDAY. WINDS
BECOME SOUTH BEHIND THE LOW AND THEN TURN SE AND INCREASE TO 20-25
KT AS THE NEXT LOW APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF
VARIABILITY IN THE STRENGTH AND PATH OF THE NEXT LOW SO CONFIDENCE
IS LOW IN THE EXACT WIND SPEEDS. ONE MODEL DOES FEATURE WESTERLY
GALES ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT DO NOT HAVE
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO GO THAT HIGH IN THE FORECAST JUST YET. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN MID NEXT WEEK AND WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISH WEDNESDAY.
STILL THINKING THERE IS A MARGINAL CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
TO BE MET MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON
HEADLINES FOR NOW.
JEE
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
859 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 859 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014
A shortwave trough is moving southeastward into central Illinois
this evening bringing back low cloudiness from about Lincoln
northwestward...to spread southeast over the next few hours. This
should prevent temperatures from falling much further for a while
tonight, but otherwise little impact as precipitation detection by
radar or surface observations is almost absent as it moves into
the area. Once this feature moves off to the southeast late
tonight, clearing skies should allow good radiational cooling to
resume in a slightly moister air mass, bringing a good scenario
for fog formation overnight. Current forecasts are in good shape
with the cloud cover initially and subsequent fog development.
Later updates may be needed to adjust for fog coverage and
thickness. Have made minor adjustments for low temperatures with
evening update.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014
19z/2pm satellite imagery shows low clouds that persisted for much
of the day across west-central Illinois have finally dissipated,
with just one small patch remaining from south of Lincoln to near
Taylorville. Based on satellite trends, this patch will dissipate
over the next hour or so as well, leading to mostly clear skies late
this afternoon into the early evening. Main short-term forecast
concern will be the potential re-development of low clouds/fog
tonight as a weak trough of low pressure moves through the area.
While the overall depth of the atmosphere will be very dry, a
shallow surface-based moist layer will remain in place. With no
deep-layer moisture to work with, precip is not expected to develop
along the trough despite the NAM hinting at some overnight. As winds
become light/variable and cloud cover associated with the passing
trough begins to clear from northwest to southeast after midnight,
fog will begin to develop. HRRR is showing widespread fog once
again forming across central/eastern Iowa, then spreading into the
Illinois River Valley toward dawn. As a result, will carry areas of
fog along/west of the Illinois River, with patchy fog as far east as
Champaign/Danville. Due to cloud cover and light southerly winds,
low temperatures will be quite a bit warmer than in recent nights,
with readings remaining in the lower to middle 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Friday)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014
Saturday will start off with some morning fog, mainly N of I-70. The
fog should burn off around mid-morning, as a cold front pushes east
across IL. Some cooler air associated with the front will be mainly
confined to northern IL, with our 850mb temps still remaining the
12-14C range in the post-frontal airmass. Dry-adiabatic warming of
that layer to the surface, coupled with some sunshine should help
push high temps into the low 70s N of I-74 with upper 70s S of
I-70. NW winds will still develop behind the front, so a brief
chill may be added to the air at times.
Mid level warming will develop Saturday night into Sunday, as 850mb
temps climb toward +16C. That warm layer will linger into Monday.
Southerly winds will develop Sunday afternoon once the surface ridge
axis moves east of IL, so highs should once again climb into the 70s
across the board. On Monday, a few 80 degree readings will possible
on Monday across southwest and southeast portions of the forecast
area, which would be nearly 20 degrees above normal for late
October. Record highs for Monday are in the mid 80s and currently
appear safe.
A long wave trough is forecast to move across the northern
Plains on Monday night, with cold front progressing across IL
Tuesday morning and early afternoon. The ECMWF indicates a more
dynamic system developing in the western Great Lakes on Tuesday,
while the GFS remains a bit more progressive and less strong with
the frontal passage in our area of IL. We did maintain widespread
chance PoPs Monday night, as moisture pooling and lift still appear
to be sufficient a band of rain to affect central IL. We continued
the likely PoPs in SE Illinois for Tuesday, but chances should
diminish Tue afternoon as the main forcing for precip departs into
Indiana, and dry air quickly filters into the area aloft.
A significant cool down is agreed upon by the GFS and ECMWF for
Tuesday and Tuesday night, as 850mb temps plummet to 0 to -3C by
midday Wednesday. That will bring temps back below normal for highs
Wed, with upper 50s north of I-74, with low 60s south near
Jacksonville to Lawrenceville.
Another cold front is indicated for Thursday, with better agreement
on timing of the front between the GFS and ECMWF. Confidence is
increasing that a band of light rain showers may accompany that
front. So low chances for rain was added to the Thurs forecast,
mainly from the Illinois river to I-55.
The GFS is a about 4-5 degrees colder than the ECMWF behind the
front, with 850mb readings in the -2 to -4C range Friday afternoon.
We will continue with the cooling trend for late week. Some freezing
temps could develop for Friday night N of I-74 if the GFS scenario
pans out.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
ISSUED AT 638 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014
VFR conditions are in place across central/SE Illinois this
evening. A shortwave trough and weak cold front approaching from
the northwest is likely to bring a few hours of MVFR ceilings in
the late evening until early morning. Once this feature passes
through, clearing of the cloud cover will allow fog to develop
toward dawn. Given a similar air mass to last night and winds
expected to become light/variable in the vicinity of the trough,
have reduced vsbys to between 1 and 3 miles at the central
Illinois TAF locations, although some potential exists for
visibilities to drop into LIFR category or worse, mainly for KPIA.
Gradual clearing with winds NW 8-10 kts expected after 14Z.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Onton
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Shimon
AVIATION...Onton
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
652 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014
.DISCUSSION...
304 PM CDT
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...
BROAD SURFACE HIGH STRETCHES FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON WHILE
LOW PRESSURE LIES OVER ONTARIO WITH A COLD FRONT STRETCHING INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. A NARROW RIBBON OF MOISTURE IS ANALYZED OUT AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT WITH 60 DEGREE DEWPOINTS STRETCHING NORTH INTO
NORTHERN IOWA THIS AFTERNOON...AND JUST OFF THE DECK A CORRIDOR OF
LOW/MID LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION IS DRIVING AT LEAST A FEW VERY WEAK
RADAR RETURNS OVER FAR SE MN AND NE IA. RAP/HRRR GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS
AREA PERSISTING ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS THIS EVENING WITH THE
CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS. GIVEN THE VERY SPARSE COVERAGE SO FAR
UPSTREAM AND THE DRY SOUNDINGS/LIMITED DURATION OF FORCING...NOT
BITING OFF ON PRECIP MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...BUT WILL
MAINTAIN SOME LOW END SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SINCE THERE ARE SOME
INGREDIENTS IN PLACE.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
WEAK FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY ON SATURDAY WITH DRY AIR
FILTERING BACK INTO THE REGION AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
AREA AND SUBSIDENCE SETS IN OVERHEAD. EXPECT DEW POINTS TO MIX OUT
NICELY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS
WHERE DEW POINTS MAY DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S. THE DRY
CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A NICE RESPONSE FROM DIABATIC HEATING
WHICH WILL RESULT IN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER TOMORROW.
MEANWHILE...SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
SATURDAY DIRECTLY OVERHEAD EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WHICH WILL ALLOW
FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING SUNDAY MORNING WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO
THE 30S IN OUTLYING AREAS AND SOME OF THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS.
ELSEWHERE EXPECT LOW 40S WITH DOWNTOWN CHICAGO STAYING PROPPED UP IN
THE MID 40S. TEMPERATURES MAY BE A BIT TRICKY SUNDAY WITH WARM
ADVECTION ALOFT INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
SURFACE HIGH. A COOL STARTING POINT AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE DAY WILL KEEP HIGHS ONLY INTO THE 60S SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUCKLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DIGS FROM THE PAC NW INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. BROAD SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL SHIFT EAST TOWARDS THE MIDWEST
EARLY MONDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASING OUT AHEAD AND A CORRIDOR
OF MODERATE TO STRONG MID LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION LIFTING ACROSS THE
LOCAL FORECAST AREA ON THE NOSE OF A 40KT OR SO LOW LEVEL JET.
COLUMN IS FAIRLY DRY OUT AHEAD OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE BUT A NARROW
LAYER OF SATURATION COULD TAP INTO SOME MODEST INSTABILITY ROOTED
BETWEEN H7-H9. THIS DOES POINT TO SOME CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
THOUGH CHANCES ARE BETTER TO OUR NORTH WHERE THE MUCAPE ALIGNS
BETTER WITH THE FORCING FROM THE LOW LEVEL JET. EXPECT LOWERING
CLOUDS IN THE PREDAWN HOURS AS THE SURFACE WARM FRONT APPROACHES.
THE MID LEVELS DRY OUT AGAIN AND THE MOISTURE IS FAIRLY SHALLOW SO
ANY ADDITIONAL PRECIP EARLY ON MONDAY MAY JUST BE DRIZZLE. SURFACE
WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA MID MORNING MONDAY AND EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS ONCE IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH LOW CLOUD COVER EVENTUALLY
SCATTERING. H85 TEMPS WARM TO 15-16C WITH 17C BEING THE 99TH
PERCENTILE OF UPPER AIR CLIMO FOR THE END OF OCTOBER. SURFACE HIGHS
WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL...POSSIBLY PUSHING 20F ABOVE
NORMAL...THOUGH THE RECORD HIGH SHOULD BE SAFE. LEANED HEAVILY ON
EC/ECBC FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS MONDAY FORECASTING MID 70S...WITH UPPER
70S SOUTH OF I-80. THE WARMER CONDITIONS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
STRONGER WINDS HOWEVER WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 20 TO 25 MPH AND
POSSIBLY 30 MPH AT TIMES.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
MODELS ARE INDICATING A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO
DEVELOP OVER THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A COLD FRONT SWEEPING
ACROSS THE ARE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY BRINGING CHANCES FOR
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE LOW REALLY BEGINS TO DEEPEN IN EARNEST
AS IT LIFTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO CANADA TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH DRIVING POLAR AIR SOUTH INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES
AND A COLD POLAR HIGH GRAZING THE LOCAL AREA LATE NEXT WEEK. DETAILS
STILL MURKY THIS FAR OUT BUT DOES APPEAR WE COULD BE IN FOR A BIG
COOL DOWN LATE NEXT WEEK IN TIME FOR HALLOWEEN IF CURRENT GFS/ECMWF
RUNS PAN OUT.
DEUBELBEISS
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 00Z...
* LOWERING CIGS LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT...MVFR PROBABLE WITH
IFR/LIFR A LOW POSSIBILITY.
* MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.
* SLIGHT CHANCE OF -SHRA LATE THIS EVENING.
* IMPROVING CIG/VIS SATURDAY MORNING WITH BREEZY WEST-NORTHWEST
WINDS.
RATZER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z...
SUBTLE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAVE WAS OVER EASTERN IOWA EARLY THIS
EVENING...AND WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. AN
AREA OF IFR/LIFR CIGS AND FOG WAS LOCATED JUST AHEAD OF THIS WAVE
ACROSS EASTERN IOWA/SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...AND IS EXPECTED TO
ADVANCE INTO PARTS OF SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN AND WESTERN ILLINOIS
OVERNIGHT...AS LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TO ADVECT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE WAVE. A FASTER MOVING COLD FRONT WITH
A STRONG PUSH OF DRIER AIR WILL OVERTAKE THE WEAKER WAVE
OVERNIGHT. A FEW SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING AS
AN ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ENHANCES LIFT...THOUGH THESE
SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT AND FAIRLY ISOLATED.
LOW END VFR AND MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD EAST AS FAR AS
THE CHICAGO TERMINALS DURING THE LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS...
THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT THE LOWER IFR/LIFR CIGS OVER IOWA
WILL MAKE IT THIS FAR EAST AS THE LOW LEVEL MOIST AXIS GETS
PINCHED OFF BY THE FASTER COLD FRONT. THE SECOND FRONT WILL CLEAR
THE TERMINALS SATURDAY MORNING...WITH MUCH DRIER AIR SCOURING OUT
ANY LOW CLOUDS THAT DO FORM OVERNIGHT.
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT THIS EVENING WILL SHIFT TO
THE WEST WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE PRE-DAWN SATURDAY. WEST-
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KT WILL BECOME BREEZY WITH GUSTS NEAR 20
KT LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
RATZER
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 00Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE CIGS LOWERING TO LOWER END VFR LATER THIS
EVENING...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT. LOW
CONFIDENCE IN CIGS IFR/LIFR DEVELOPING.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT -SHRA COVERAGE WILL BE LOW LATE THIS
EVENING.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AND WEST WINDS SATURDAY.
RATZER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
SUNDAY...VFR. SLGT CHC SHRA/TSRA SUNDAY NIGHT. SE WINDS.
MONDAY...VFR BY DAY...SHRA/TSRA LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT. BREEZY
SOUTH WINDS.
TUESDAY...CHC SHRA/TSRA. MVFR POSSIBLE. SOUTHWEST-WEST WINDS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS.
RATZER
&&
.MARINE...
228 PM CDT
HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOWLY PUSHING EAST WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER
THE LAKE. A WEAK LAKE BREEZE HAS TURNED WINDS ONSHORE OVER LAKE
COUNTY IL. SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO 20-25 KT THIS EVENING WITH
OCNL 30 KT GUSTS PSBL OVER THE NORTH HALF OF THE LAKE OVERNIGHT.
WINDS TURN W 20-25 KT BEHIND THE FRONT AND SLOWLY BECOME NW SATURDAY
NIGHT. POINTS NORTH OF WILMETTE HARBOR MAY SEE OCNL GUSTS TO 25 KT
TOMORROW...BUT THINKING SUSTAINED SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE
MET. WINDS DIMINISH AS A HIGH MOVES OVER THE LAKE SUNDAY. WINDS
BECOME SOUTH BEHIND THE LOW AND THEN TURN SE AND INCREASE TO 20-25
KT AS THE NEXT LOW APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF
VARIABILITY IN THE STRENGTH AND PATH OF THE NEXT LOW SO CONFIDENCE
IS LOW IN THE EXACT WIND SPEEDS. ONE MODEL DOES FEATURE WESTERLY
GALES ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT DO NOT HAVE
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO GO THAT HIGH IN THE FORECAST JUST YET. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN MID NEXT WEEK AND WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISH WEDNESDAY.
STILL THINKING THERE IS A MARGINAL CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
TO BE MET MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON
HEADLINES FOR NOW.
JEE
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
638 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014
19z/2pm satellite imagery shows low clouds that persisted for much
of the day across west-central Illinois have finally dissipated,
with just one small patch remaining from south of Lincoln to near
Taylorville. Based on satellite trends, this patch will dissipate
over the next hour or so as well, leading to mostly clear skies late
this afternoon into the early evening. Main short-term forecast
concern will be the potential re-development of low clouds/fog
tonight as a weak trough of low pressure moves through the area.
While the overall depth of the atmosphere will be very dry, a
shallow surface-based moist layer will remain in place. With no
deep-layer moisture to work with, precip is not expected to develop
along the trough despite the NAM hinting at some overnight. As winds
become light/variable and cloud cover associated with the passing
trough begins to clear from northwest to southeast after midnight,
fog will begin to develop. HRRR is showing widespread fog once
again forming across central/eastern Iowa, then spreading into the
Illinois River Valley toward dawn. As a result, will carry areas of
fog along/west of the Illinois River, with patchy fog as far east as
Champaign/Danville. Due to cloud cover and light southerly winds,
low temperatures will be quite a bit warmer than in recent nights,
with readings remaining in the lower to middle 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Friday)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014
Saturday will start off with some morning fog, mainly N of I-70. The
fog should burn off around mid-morning, as a cold front pushes east
across IL. Some cooler air associated with the front will be mainly
confined to northern IL, with our 850mb temps still remaining the
12-14C range in the post-frontal airmass. Dry-adiabatic warming of
that layer to the surface, coupled with some sunshine should help
push high temps into the low 70s N of I-74 with upper 70s S of
I-70. NW winds will still develop behind the front, so a brief
chill may be added to the air at times.
Mid level warming will develop Saturday night into Sunday, as 850mb
temps climb toward +16C. That warm layer will linger into Monday.
Southerly winds will develop Sunday afternoon once the surface ridge
axis moves east of IL, so highs should once again climb into the 70s
across the board. On Monday, a few 80 degree readings will possible
on Monday across southwest and southeast portions of the forecast
area, which would be nearly 20 degrees above normal for late
October. Record highs for Monday are in the mid 80s and currently
appear safe.
A long wave trough is forecast to move across the northern
Plains on Monday night, with cold front progressing across IL
Tuesday morning and early afternoon. The ECMWF indicates a more
dynamic system developing in the western Great Lakes on Tuesday,
while the GFS remains a bit more progressive and less strong with
the frontal passage in our area of IL. We did maintain widespread
chance PoPs Monday night, as moisture pooling and lift still appear
to be sufficient a band of rain to affect central IL. We continued
the likely PoPs in SE Illinois for Tuesday, but chances should
diminish Tue afternoon as the main forcing for precip departs into
Indiana, and dry air quickly filters into the area aloft.
A significant cool down is agreed upon by the GFS and ECMWF for
Tuesday and Tuesday night, as 850mb temps plummet to 0 to -3C by
midday Wednesday. That will bring temps back below normal for highs
Wed, with upper 50s north of I-74, with low 60s south near
Jacksonville to Lawrenceville.
Another cold front is indicated for Thursday, with better agreement
on timing of the front between the GFS and ECMWF. Confidence is
increasing that a band of light rain showers may accompany that
front. So low chances for rain was added to the Thurs forecast,
mainly from the Illinois river to I-55.
The GFS is a about 4-5 degrees colder than the ECMWF behind the
front, with 850mb readings in the -2 to -4C range Friday afternoon.
We will continue with the cooling trend for late week. Some freezing
temps could develop for Friday night N of I-74 if the GFS scenario
pans out.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
ISSUED AT 638 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014
VFR conditions are in place across central/SE Illinois this
evening. A shortwave trough and weak cold front approaching from
the northwest is likely to bring a few hours of MVFR ceilings in
the late evening until early morning. Once this feature passes
through, clearing of the cloud cover will allow fog to develop
toward dawn. Given a similar air mass to last night and winds
expected to become light/variable in the vicinity of the trough,
have reduced vsbys to between 1 and 3 miles at the central
Illinois TAF locations, although some potential exists for
visibilities to drop into LIFR category or worse, mainly for KPIA.
Gradual clearing with winds NW 8-10 kts expected after 14Z.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Shimon
AVIATION...Onton
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
327 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014
.DISCUSSION...
327 PM CDT
AFTERNOON GOES VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH
PROPAGATING THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH A WEAK
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE REFLECTION OVER EAST CENTRAL IOWA. AS EXPECTED
THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD/INTO THIS SYSTEM IS RATHER SPARSE...
WITH A FAIRLY NARROW RIBBON OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST IL AND SOUTHERN WI. HIGH-RES
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THIS EVENING...THOUGH WITH
COVERAGE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT LIMITED AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN WITH LOSS OF DEFINITION OF
THE SURFACE WAVE AND LOW PRESSURE TROUGH. IN ADDITION TO THE
EXTENSIVE MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL LIKELY OBSCURE PARTIAL SOLAR ECLIPSE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...LOWER CLOUDS ALSO EXPECTED AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AXIS ARRIVES. SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA WHERE LIGHT WINDS AND 45-50 DEGREE
SURFACE DEW POINT TEMPS WILL RESULT IN HIGH LOW LEVEL RH...THOUGH
CLEARING SKIES WILL BE MORE LIKELY WEST OF THE CWA WHERE SIGNIFICANT
DENSE FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. AT LEAST CLOUD COVER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL KEEP TEMPS A
LITTLE MILDER OVERNIGHT.
SHORT-WAVE WILL MOVE QUICKLY SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH MODEST HEIGHT RISES AND A SUBTLE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA. ANOTHER TRAILING SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER
THE ROCKIES IS PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS MISSOURI AND
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ILLINOIS FRIDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WHICH MAY
KEEP A LITTLE CLOUD COVER AROUND. OTHERWISE...DOMINANT WEATHER
FEATURE BECOMES A BROAD UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER WEST TEXAS WHICH
COVERS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS INTO THE WEEKEND. A STRONG 150+ KT
UPPER JET FLATTENS THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AS IT RIDES ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER FRIDAY...THOUGH THE MAIN AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE
REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. A
COLD FRONT DOES TRAIL INTO THE REGION HOWEVER...MOVING ACROSS THE
CWA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SOME GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE SOME VERY
SPOTTY/VERY LIGHT QPF WITH FROPA DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS SATURDAY
ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE MUCH LESS IMPRESSIVE WITH PRECIP THAN WITH
CURRENT WAVE...WITH SREF POPS LESS THAN 20 PERCENT. COLD FRONT
COMPLETES THE TRANSIT OF THE CWA SATURDAY MORNING...THOUGH PACIFIC
NATURE OF THE FRONT PRODUCES ONLY MODEST COOLING AS IT SHIFTS WINDS
TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY. LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROGS AND
POTENTIAL FOR A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE SUPPORT TEMPS IN THE 65-AROUND
70 RANGE DESPITE THE SLIGHT COOL ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT...AS
UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO AMPLIFY AND DEVELOP INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY SUNDAY AS
LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES ASHORE IN THE WEST...WITH A LARGE
LEE TROUGH DEVELOPING EAST OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. LOW
PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH A WARM FRONT
LIFTING ACROSS IA-IL SUNDAY NIGHT. SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF
THE WARM FRONT...IN ADDITION TO CLOUD DEVELOPMENT NORTH OF THE WARM
FRONT LOOK TO TEMPER WARM-UP ONLY SLIGHTLY...WITH 60-66 FOR HIGHS
WITH COOLEST AIR ALONG THE IL LAKE SHORE. SOME POTENTIAL FOR
ELEVATED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT
SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN IL.
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE CWA MONDAY...WITH BREEZY/WARM AND MORE
HUMID AIR IN THE WARM SECTOR SUPPORTING TEMPS IN THE 70S AREA-WIDE.
ECMWF/GFS AND GEM ALL INDICATE VERY LITTLE PRECIP IN THE WARM SECTOR
WITH THE MAIN FOCUS ALONG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST. RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THUS INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS
THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST THROUGH THE REGION.
BREEZY AND COOLER CONDITIONS THEN RETURN AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY TO
THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SOME DIFFERENCES REMAIN
WITH THE HANDLING OF THE LOW DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK...THOUGH THIS
MAINLY AFFECTS HOW QUICKLY WE DRY OUT ON TUESDAY. OTHERWISE GUIDANCE
IS ACTUALLY QUITE REASONABLE IN AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
RATZER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...
* SW WINDS GUSTING TO ARND 17KT THIS AFTN.
* SCATTERED -SHRA THIS EVENING.
* MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AFTER THE SHOWERS...IFR PSBL.
JEE
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WITH A LINE OF
SHOWERS EXTENDING INTO NORTHWEST IL. THE BAND OF SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE EAST AND EXPECTING IT TO REMAIN RAGGED WITH HIT OR MISS
SHOWERS. RFD HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING AN ORGANIZED SHOWER
THIS AFTN. THE EASTERN TERMINALS WILL MOST LIKELY SEE SCATTERED
SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE THIS EVENING.
UPSTREAM OBS INDICATE THAT CIGS WILL FALL TO MVFR OR LOWER BEHIND
THE SHOWERS. HAVE THE MOST CONFIDENCE IN THE RFD TAF WITH IFR
CIGS. HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN FOG AT RFD AND MEDIUM IN 1/4SM.
CLOUDS SHOULD LAST LONGER OVER THE EASTERN TERMINALS SO KEPT CIGS
IN THE MVFR RANGE WITH FOG ONLY AT DPA. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO
VFR QUICKLY TOMORROW AS THE CLOUDS SHIFT EAST. LIGHT WINDS
OVERNIGHT BECOME SW BTWN 5 AND 8 KT.
JEE
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE AND OCCURRENCE OF -SHRA...MEDIUM-
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS AND TIMING...LOW CONFIDENCE IN
HOW LOW THE CIGS WILL BE.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS.
JEE
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
* FRIDAY NIGHT...DRY. MVFR/FOG POSSIBLE.
* SATURDAY...DRY/VFR. GUSTY WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS.
* SUNDAY...DRY/VFR. WEST WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST.
* MONDAY...DRY/VFR. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS.
* TUESDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA. STRONG/GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS.
* WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA. WEST WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...
244 PM CDT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
EAST ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES RESULTING IN GENERALLY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE LAKE. THIS LOW WILL MOVE OVER JAMES BAY
SATURDAY DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN AND TURNING
WINDS TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST. THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT IS SLOW
TO TRICKLE IN AND THE AIRMASS IS SHALLOW...SO WHILE THERE ARE
GALES JUST OFF THE DECK...IT DOESNT APPEAR THAT THEY WOULD MIX
DOWN TO THE LAKE SURFACE AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL PEAK
OCCASIONALLY TO 30 KT SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN SHOULD
TREND DOWN THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK
OVER THE REGION. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO LIFT
ACROSS THE REGION AROUND MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK AND WILL ONCE AGAIN
BRING MODERATE WINDS TO LAKE MICHIGAN.
BMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
257 PM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014
19z/2pm surface analysis shows weak cold front/trough axis extending
from Minnesota to northern Kansas. Band of clouds and light showers
accompanies this feature from Missouri northeastward into Wisconsin,
although showers have been struggling to spread eastward into the
very dry airmass across Illinois. Forecast soundings suggest
continued top-down moistening this afternoon and evening as 500mb
trough approaches from the west. Despite decent lift ahead of the
trough, dry airmass will be the main mitigating factor for
widespread precip development. Will therefore continue to feature
just slight chance PoPs this evening across all locations north of
the I-70 corridor and across the N/NE KILX CWA overnight. Rainfall
totals will be quite light, amounting to little more than a couple
hundredths of an inch at best. Due to the clouds, overnight lows
will be quite a but warmer than in recent nights, with readings
remaining in the middle to upper 40s. Skies may temporarily clear
along/west of the Illinois River late tonight: however, with light
winds and plenty of surface-based moisture in place, think fog
and/or low clouds will develop toward dawn. Have therefore included
patchy fog mention across the W/NW overnight. HRRR suggests
widespread fog and lowest visbys will develop further west
along/west of the Mississippi River.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014
Initial forecast challenge will be how quickly the low level
moisture/clouds are able to clear out during the day Friday as
forecast soundings not looking very optimistic, at least thru
the morning hours. However, we do see some drying taking place
in the lower levels of the atmosphere in the wake of the shortwave
by late morning/early afternoon. Will keep the clouds and mention
of early morning fog in for a few hours after sunrise and then
forecast a gradual decrease in clouds from northwest to southeast
during the day. Models continue to bring a weak cold front into
our area late Friday night into Saturday with very little moisture
to work, with so will continue with the dry forecast later Friday
night thru Saturday morning. After that, some very nice weather in
store for the area thru Monday evening as upper level ridging
builds across the center of the country in response to a rather
deep trof pushing across the western U.S.
Models in decent agreement with respect to the magnitude of the
trof forecast to push across our area on Tuesday and the timing
of the cold frontal passage and rain chances ahead of it starting
late Monday night with likely POPs most areas on Tuesday. Before
the rain moves in though, some pleasantly warm weather is in store
for the region this weekend with summer-like temperatures on Monday
thanks to a gusty south to southwest wind. Despite the weak cold
frontal passage on Saturday, temperatures on Sunday will only cool
about 5 degrees most areas, but rise well into the 70s on Monday
afternoon with low 80s possible in the southeast. Rain chances will
increase ahead of the low pressure system late Monday night in the
west and over all of our area on Tuesday as the front sweeps across
the area. Strong dynamics aloft with 0-6km shear values of 40-50
kts and models indicating surface dew points climbing to around 60
just ahead of the front. Will have to monitor for the possibility
for strong to severe storms Tuesday afternoon if the models continue
with the slowing trend with the frontal passage.
Rain chances start to decrease from west to east Tuesday evening in the
wake of the storm system with dry weather expected for the remainder
of the period. Temperatures will cool back closer to where they should
be for the end of October.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014
Mid/high clouds continue to spread eastward across central
Illinois early this afternoon, while MVFR ceilings remain further
west along/behind a trough axis extending from eastern Iowa into
northern Missouri. As this feature moves slowly eastward, clouds
will lower later this afternoon into the evening and a few light
showers will be possible. HRRR guidance suggests low clouds will
stay west of the central Illinois terminals until this evening,
with MVFR ceilings arriving at KPIA by 01z then further east to
KCMI by 08z. Based on 12z NAM forecast soundings and latest HRRR,
think clearing late tonight into Friday morning will be much
slower than previously expected. While skies may temporarily clear
along/west of the Illinois late tonight, light winds/ample low-level
moisture will lead to fog and low cloud re-development. End result
will be overcast conditions until mid-morning Friday at the earliest.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...Barnes
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
246 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014
.DISCUSSION...
303 AM CDT
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM CENTRAL QUEBEC SOUTHWEST
THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. EARLY THIS MORNING THIS
RIDGE HAS BEEN ABLE TO KEEP CLOUD COVER DISPLACED WEST OF THE
REGION. BASED ON LATEST SFC OBS THE PRESSURE FALLS ARE NOT VERY
LARGE...WHICH COULD BE AN INDICATOR THAT LATER TODAY THE ABILITY FOR
THE ATMOSPHERE TO PRODUCE ABUNDANT MOISTURE/PRECIP MAY BE
DIMINISHED. IR IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS A MOIST CHANNEL THAT
EXTENDS FROM THE CANADIAN BORDER OF THE UPPER MIDWEST...SOUTH TO
THE MEXICO BORDER/WESTERN GULF. THE PROGRESSION TO THE EAST HAS BEEN
VERY SLOW...AND LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT AS THIS
FEATURE PUSHES EAST IT WILL ENCOUNTER MUCH DRIER AIR AND DIMINISH
THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF PRECIP.
WITH THE LGT WINDS AND MINIMAL CLOUD COVER EARLY THIS MORNING...SOME
LOCATIONS ARE BEGINNING TO SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP...MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHWEST INDIANA. TEMPS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO RADIATE INTO THE MID
30S...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR WESTERN CWFA WHERE A THIN
CIRRUS DECK HAS ARRIVED AND HELD TEMPS IN THE UPR 30S/NEAR 40.
AS THE MOIST CHANNEL SLOWLY SLIDES EAST TODAY...EXPECT A STEADY
THICKENING TO THE CLOUD COVER. WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHERLY WITH SOME
BETTER MIXING DEVELOPING AND PERHAPS BRINGING WINDS UP TO 10-20MPH
BY LATE AFTN. GUIDANCE HAS BECOME MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH PRECIP
COVERAGE/INTENSITY LATER TODAY...AND AS A RESULT HAVE BACKED OFF ON
POPS ALONG WITH QUANTITY OF PRECIP. THE NEAR SFC ENVIRONMENT STILL
LOOKS TO REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY...ALTHOUGH SOME MOISTENING WILL
OCCUR. EXPECT THE BEST PRECIP COVERAGE TO OCCUR FURTHER
NORTH...HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF LGT RAIN ACROSS ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY EVE. TROUGH AXIS WILL BE SLIDING
EAST ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL WISC BY 3Z. TEMPS TODAY WILL WARM INTO THE
50S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...AND SOUTH OF I-80 A FEW 60S.
FOR TONIGHT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH...AND DEPARTING
PRECIP/CLOUD COVER...THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT PATCHY FOG WILL
DEVELOP. UPSTREAM THIS HAS ALREADY BEEN NOTED...AND EXPECT THIS
SIMILAR SETUP TO OCCUR OVER A PORTION OF THE CWFA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
BUT WILL HINGE UPON HOW QUICKLY CLOUDS WILL DEPART. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID/UPR 40S.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A WEAK LOBE OF VORTICITY IS PROGGED TO SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...ARRIVING OVER THE FORECAST AREA FRI AFTN/EVE. LOCAL ARW8KM
GUIDANCE AND NAM SUGGEST SOME LGT PRECIP MAY DEVELOP WITH THIS
SYSTEM...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH TO THE COVERAGE AT THIS TIME. HAVE
OPTED TO HOLD ONTO THE DRY FORECAST...BUT MAY NEED TO ADJUST POPS
SLIGHTLY TO REFLECT A FEW SPRINKLES/LGT RAIN SHOWERS. THEN BY EARLY
SAT MORNING ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW BUILDS INTO THE REGION AND DRIES THE
ATMOSPHERE OUT. SFC RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THRU SUN...THEN THE
MID-LVL RIDGE OVERHEAD FLATTENS AND THE FLOW BECOMES QUASI-ZONAL FOR
LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPS FRI-SUN WILL BE SLOWLY MODERATING...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO
PERHAPS A FEW LOW 70S FRI/SAT. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE
ACROSS THE REGION SUN AND COULD BRING TEMPS BACK INTO THE UPR
50S/LOW 60S.
MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...
ENSEMBLES ARE SHOWING THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH PUSHING EAST BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK...HELPING TO SETUP THE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODIC CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MON/TUE TIMEFRAME.
TEMPS MON SHUD REBOUND WITH A SOUTHWEST FLOW AND PUSH INTO THE UPR
60S/LOW 70S. THEN INCREASED CLOUD COVER TUE/WED WILL KEEP TEMPS IN
THE UPR 50S TO LOW 60S.
BEACHLER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...
* SW WINDS GUSTING TO ARND 17KT THIS AFTN.
* SCATTERED -SHRA THIS EVENING.
* MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AFTER THE SHOWERS...IFR PSBL.
JEE
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WITH A LINE OF
SHOWERS EXTENDING INTO NORTHWEST IL. THE BAND OF SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE EAST AND EXPECTING IT TO REMAIN RAGGED WITH HIT OR MISS
SHOWERS. RFD HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING AN ORGANIZED SHOWER
THIS AFTN. THE EASTERN TERMINALS WILL MOST LIKELY SEE SCATTERED
SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE THIS EVENING.
UPSTREAM OBS INDICATE THAT CIGS WILL FALL TO MVFR OR LOWER BEHIND
THE SHOWERS. HAVE THE MOST CONFIDENCE IN THE RFD TAF WITH IFR
CIGS. HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN FOG AT RFD AND MEDIUM IN 1/4SM.
CLOUDS SHOULD LAST LONGER OVER THE EASTERN TERMINALS SO KEPT CIGS
IN THE MVFR RANGE WITH FOG ONLY AT DPA. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO
VFR QUICKLY TOMORROW AS THE CLOUDS SHIFT EAST. LIGHT WINDS
OVERNIGHT BECOME SW BTWN 5 AND 8 KT.
JEE
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE AND OCCURRENCE OF -SHRA...MEDIUM-
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS AND TIMING...LOW CONFIDENCE IN
HOW LOW THE CIGS WILL BE.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS.
JEE
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
* FRIDAY NIGHT...DRY. MVFR/FOG POSSIBLE.
* SATURDAY...DRY/VFR. GUSTY WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS.
* SUNDAY...DRY/VFR. WEST WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST.
* MONDAY...DRY/VFR. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS.
* TUESDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA. STRONG/GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS.
* WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA. WEST WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...
244 PM CDT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
EAST ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES RESULTING IN GENERALLY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE LAKE. THIS LOW WILL MOVE OVER JAMES BAY
SATURDAY DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN AND TURNING
WINDS TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST. THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT IS SLOW
TO TRICKLE IN AND THE AIRMASS IS SHALLOW...SO WHILE THERE ARE
GALES JUST OFF THE DECK...IT DOESNT APPEAR THAT THEY WOULD MIX
DOWN TO THE LAKE SURFACE AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL PEAK
OCCASIONALLY TO 30 KT SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN SHOULD
TREND DOWN THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK
OVER THE REGION. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO LIFT
ACROSS THE REGION AROUND MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK AND WILL ONCE AGAIN
BRING MODERATE WINDS TO LAKE MICHIGAN.
BMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1255 PM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1042 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014
Morning surface analysis shows weak frontal boundary across the
Plains, accompanied by a band of clouds and light showers from
Missouri northeastward into western Wisconsin. Airmass ahead of
this system is very dry, as shown by the 12z KILX upper air
sounding. As a result, precip will have a difficult time
spreading/developing eastward. Latest radar trends continue to
show a decrease in precip areal coverage across northern/central
Missouri, so have updated PoPs to slow the eastward progression of
the rain chances. Will continue to carry just slight chance PoPs
west of I-57 this afternoon. Further east, precip will hold off
until evening. Rainfall amounts will be quite light, only
amounting to a couple hundredths of an inch at best.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014
Main concern for today revolves around how much (if any) rainfall is
expected, as well as how soon it will arrive. Line of showers
upstream along a decaying cold front currently extends from the
upper Midwest into the central Plains. The front and driving upper
wave have not been making very quick progress to the east due to the
blocking upper low along the east coast and the weakening ridge
overhead it is trying to push into. This scenario should continue to
slow the arrival of the upstream front, as well as support its
continued weakening. With this thinking in mind, supported by a
strong consensus of the models, have removed all PoPs from this
morning, and limited them to slight chance for the afternoon across
northern 1/2 of forecast area (southern 1/2 of forecast area stays
dry). The slower arrival of the clouds and minimal precipitation
threat with this system should also allow temperatures to warm a bit
more than previously expected, with most locations able to make it
into the 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014
Shower threat to diminish quickly this evening as the wave passes,
as forecast soundings near Champaign only show a moist layer about
2000 feet thick and quickly eroding from the top down. However,
clouds will be slower to exit as a weak wave moves in behind the
initial one.
Dry frontal passage expected Friday night, as what little
precipitation is shown by the models stays to our north. The cooler
air lags behind this front some distance, so highs 70-75 are still
anticipated for Saturday. While Sunday briefly cools off with the
arrival of a fast moving high, the warming trend kicks in again
early next week.
Main focus for rain in the longer term remains with a broad trough
that will be emerging from the Rockies Monday evening. Latest ECMWF
run is coming more in line with the GFS solution, with better
phasing of this trough in the northern/southern streams. However,
the GFS is a tad faster, spreading rain in most areas late Monday
night while the ECMWF is more during the day Tuesday. Both models
quickly end the rain from northwest to southeast Tuesday night.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014
Mid/high clouds continue to spread eastward across central
Illinois early this afternoon, while MVFR ceilings remain further
west along/behind a trough axis extending from eastern Iowa into
northern Missouri. As this feature moves slowly eastward, clouds
will lower later this afternoon into the evening and a few light
showers will be possible. HRRR guidance suggests low clouds will
stay west of the central Illinois terminals until this evening,
with MVFR ceilings arriving at KPIA by 01z then further east to
KCMI by 08z. Based on 12z NAM forecast soundings and latest HRRR,
think clearing late tonight into Friday morning will be much
slower than previously expected. While skies may temporarily clear
along/west of the Illinois late tonight, light winds/ample low-level
moisture will lead to fog and low cloud re-development. End result
will be overcast conditions until mid-morning Friday at the earliest.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Barnes
SHORT TERM...Bak
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Barnes
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
146 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE CLEAR OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF
MICHIGAN AND INDIANA. CLOUDS OVER EASTERN AREAS WILL SLOWLY ERODE
THIS EVENING LEAVING BEHIND PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL REACH THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014
DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA AND RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER
CONDITIONS...A FEW WEATHER ISSUES DO PERSIST WITH RESPECT TO CLOUD
COVER AND TEMPERATURES TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY TELLS THE STORY WITH STRATUS DECK STILL
LINGERING OVER EASTERN HALF OF FORECAST AREA AS OF 18Z. SOME SLOW
EROSION HAS BEEN NOTED OVER WESTERN EDGE AND SOME CLEARING
APPROACHING FROM NORTHEAST PER LIGHT NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL WINDS.
MODELS REMAIN RATHER PERSISTENT THAT AREA OF STRATUS WILL CONTINUE
TO THIN AND DISSIPATE THIS EVENING PER HRRR RH AND TOTAL CLOUD COVER
PLOTS ALONG WITH LATEST RAP13 RH FIELDS IN THE 900-850MB LAYERS.
CONCERN THOUGH LIES WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH
A RATHER STOUT LOW LEVEL INVERSION. 925-850MB THERMAL RIDGE REMAINS
OVER EASTERN IL AND WESTERN IN THROUGH THE NIGHT ALONG WITH 500MB
RIDGE AXIS. TYPICALLY STRATUS EROSION DOES NOT OCCUR UNTIL PASSAGE
OF THESE FEATURES. HOWEVER...SOUNDINGS SHOW A VERY DRY AIRMASS
SITTING ATOP VERY THIN LAYER OF CLOUDS AND INCREASING SUBSIDENCE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY CONTINUE TO ERODE THE CLOUD DECK
AS ADVERTISED. HAVE CONTINUED TO SLOW THE EROSION IN THE SKY COVER
GRIDS BUT DID KEEP THE OPTIMISTIC ATTITUDE IN ORDER TO MATCH
SURROUNDING SITES FOR A MORE CONSISTENT LOOKING FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES TO BE IMPACTED SIGNIFICANTLY IF THESE CLOUDS DO HOLD ON
THROUGH THE NIGHT. FOR NOW STAYED WITH PERSISTENCE AND OPTIMISTIC
FORECAST WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE LOWER AND MID 30S. PREVIOUS
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN THE BEST PERFORMING GUIDANCE OVER THE LAST
WEEK...15 DAYS AND 30 DAYS SO WILL RIDE WITH THAT. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW A VERY MOIST SHALLOW LAYER NEAR SURFACE UNDER
STRONG INVERSION WITH VERY DRY AIR ALOFT AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH A
DEEP COLUMN. THIS USUALLY AN IDEAL SETUP FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT SO
ADDED PATCHY FOG TO GRIDS.
EXPECT THURSDAY TO REMAIN DRY AHEAD OF NEXT WEAK SHORT WAVE WITH
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS IN THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. RAWBLEND
GUIDANCE PERFORMING BEST WITH MID TO UPPER 50S EXPECTED FOR HIGHS.
&&
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT WAS LAGGING BEHIND LOWER LEVELS...WITH QUESTIONABLE
SATURATION THROUGH THE CLOUD LAYER. REFINED THE TIMING OF THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS GIVEN THE LATEST MODEL EXPECTATIONS. VERY LITTLE
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM GIVEN LIMITED SATURATION...
WEAK LIFT AND LACK OF MOISTURE. A BACK DOOR TYPE OF FRONT SHOULD
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND BECOME STATIONARY NEAR OR OVER
THE FORECAST AREA. KEPT THE FORECAST DRY GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE AND
LIMITED LOW LEVEL FORCING ALONG THE FRONT. LOWERED HIGHS SUNDAY INTO
THE 50S NORTHEAST OF THE FRONT. THERE WAS MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. FAVOR THE GFS WHICH HAS
BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY THAN THE ECMWF WITH THE BEST CHANCE
FOR RAIN ABOUT TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 141 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014
STRATOCU DECK HAS DISSIPATED ACROSS THE AREA. THE CLEARING
COMBINED WITH MOIST CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
SET THE STAGE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY AROND KFWA WHICH
HASN`T HAD A CHANCE TO MIX OUT ALL THE MOISTURE FROM RECENT RAINS
DUE TO CLOUDS. HAVE HELD WITH MVFR FOR NOW AT BOTH SITES...BUT
CAN`T RULE OUT SOME WIDELY VARIABLE VSBYS AT KFWA THAT COULD
IMPINGE ON IFR. WHILE THIS MAY OCCUR...ANY FOG SHOULD BE SHALLOW.
SKIES WILL CLEAR WITH VFR CONDITIONS THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS TOWARDS
00Z/FRI WITH A CHANCE FOR A FEW SPRINKLES OR A LIGHT SHOWER AT
KSBN. NOT WORTHY OF ANY MENTION AT THIS POINT.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...LASHLEY
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...FISHER
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
1200 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014
MAIN CONCERN REMAINS THE ARRIVAL OF THE RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A
PRONOUNCED RIBBON OF THETAE ADVECTION WITH A RETREATING WARM
FRONT NOW ENTERING NORTHEAST IOWA. RIDGE ALOFT IS WEAKENING THE
BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISO THUNDER MOVING EAST ACROSS THE AREA WHILE
ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS IS DEVELOPING WEST OF THE FIRST LINE AND
MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARD CENTRAL/NORTHERN IOWA AT 07Z. FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT...THUNDER WILL GRAD DIMINISH AND SOME
PATCHY FOG WILL FORM WEST WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING OVER THE AREA
GENERALLY EAST OF I35 AFTER 12Z AND EXITING THE AREA ABOUT 18Z
TODAY. BOTH THE HRRR AND THE NMM ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE
MAIN AREA OF RAIN OVER THE EAST AFT 12Z AND EXITING EAST BY MIDDAY
AND CURRENT TRENDS SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO. AS CLOUDS DEPART... MILD
AIR BEHIND THE BOUNDARY SHOULD WARM QUICKLY WITH HIGHS REACHING
THE LOWER 70S WEST TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S EAST. BUFR SOUNDINGS
INDICATE SOME CU EARLY ON IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT MAINLY SUNNY BY
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014
THE MAIN ISSUE OF THE EXTENDED WAS WITH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND...AND WITH PRECIP CHANCES LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER ECMWF/GFS/SREF FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...THEN CLOSER TO THE ECMWF SUNDAY THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK.
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...NICE WARM DAY ANTICIPATED FOR FRIDAY WITH
GOOD WAA AHEAD OF NEXT WEAK SHORTWAVE SET TO MOVE ACROSS THE
STATE DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS LOOKS TO MAINLY BRING A WESTERLY
WIND SHIFT LATE IN THE DAY. TWEAKED MAX TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO
WITH GOOD MIXING AND SOUTHWEST FLOW. 850MB TEMPS RISE INTO THE
+14C TO +18C RANGE BY 18Z FRIDAY. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH SOME WEAK CAA...BUT STILL LOOKS TO BE ABOVE
NORMAL FOR MAX TEMPERATURES.
THE 850MB RIDGE MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING
ALLOWING FOR SOME STRONG RETURN FLOW INTO THE STATE. THE CAVEAT IS
CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH SOME DECENT THETA-E ADVECTION MOVING
ACROSS THE STATE. THIS SHOULD HELP BALANCE OUT THE WAA...AND ONLY
WENT SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN GUIDANCE IN THE SOUTHWEST FOR HIGHS
SUNDAY. THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE SHOW SOME BROAD ISENTROPIC LIFT BY
THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING SUNDAY AND MAY SPAWN SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN THE
WARM SECTOR MONDAY AND REMAINS CAPPED OFF. THUS...WENT COMPLETELY
DRY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY
MONDAY. THE COLD FRONT AND TROUGH MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH THE ECMWF A BIT STRONGER AND DEEPER WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHILE THE GFS IS STRONGER WITH THE SURFACE
LOW. REGARDLESS...MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR NEXT SIGNIFICANT PRECIP. MUCH COLDER TUESDAY AND
EVEN INTO THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH THE REGION REMAINING IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
&&
.AVIATION...23/18Z
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014
IFR/MVFR CIGS BEGINNING TO BREAK UP AND CLEAR OUT OF THE
AREA...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST
TO NORTHWEST BRIEFLY THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE SHIFTING BACK TO THE
SOUTH TONIGHT.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...PODRAZIK
AVIATION...BEERENDS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
640 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014
MAIN CONCERN REMAINS THE ARRIVAL OF THE RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A
PRONOUNCED RIBBON OF THETAE ADVECTION WITH A RETREATING WARM
FRONT NOW ENTERING NORTHEAST IOWA. RIDGE ALOFT IS WEAKENING THE
BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISO THUNDER MOVING EAST ACROSS THE AREA WHILE
ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS IS DEVELOPING WEST OF THE FIRST LINE AND
MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARD CENTRAL/NORTHERN IOWA AT 07Z. FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT...THUNDER WILL GRAD DIMINISH AND SOME
PATCHY FOG WILL FORM WEST WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING OVER THE AREA
GENERALLY EAST OF I35 AFTER 12Z AND EXITING THE AREA ABOUT 18Z
TODAY. BOTH THE HRRR AND THE NMM ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE
MAIN AREA OF RAIN OVER THE EAST AFT 12Z AND EXITING EAST BY MIDDAY
AND CURRENT TRENDS SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO. AS CLOUDS DEPART... MILD
AIR BEHIND THE BOUNDARY SHOULD WARM QUICKLY WITH HIGHS REACHING
THE LOWER 70S WEST TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S EAST. BUFR SOUNDINGS
INDICATE SOME CU EARLY ON IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT MAINLY SUNNY BY
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014
THE MAIN ISSUE OF THE EXTENDED WAS WITH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND...AND WITH PRECIP CHANCES LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER ECMWF/GFS/SREF FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...THEN CLOSER TO THE ECMWF SUNDAY THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK.
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...NICE WARM DAY ANTICIPATED FOR FRIDAY WITH
GOOD WAA AHEAD OF NEXT WEAK SHORTWAVE SET TO MOVE ACROSS THE
STATE DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS LOOKS TO MAINLY BRING A WESTERLY
WIND SHIFT LATE IN THE DAY. TWEAKED MAX TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO
WITH GOOD MIXING AND SOUTHWEST FLOW. 850MB TEMPS RISE INTO THE
+14C TO +18C RANGE BY 18Z FRIDAY. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH SOME WEAK CAA...BUT STILL LOOKS TO BE ABOVE
NORMAL FOR MAX TEMPERATURES.
THE 850MB RIDGE MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING
ALLOWING FOR SOME STRONG RETURN FLOW INTO THE STATE. THE CAVEAT IS
CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH SOME DECENT THETA-E ADVECTION MOVING
ACROSS THE STATE. THIS SHOULD HELP BALANCE OUT THE WAA...AND ONLY
WENT SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN GUIDANCE IN THE SOUTHWEST FOR HIGHS
SUNDAY. THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE SHOW SOME BROAD ISENTROPIC LIFT BY
THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING SUNDAY AND MAY SPAWN SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN THE
WARM SECTOR MONDAY AND REMAINS CAPPED OFF. THUS...WENT COMPLETELY
DRY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY
MONDAY. THE COLD FRONT AND TROUGH MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH THE ECMWF A BIT STRONGER AND DEEPER WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHILE THE GFS IS STRONGER WITH THE SURFACE
LOW. REGARDLESS...MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR NEXT SIGNIFICANT PRECIP. MUCH COLDER TUESDAY AND
EVEN INTO THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH THE REGION REMAINING IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
&&
.AVIATION...23/12Z
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014
SHOWERS AND ISO THUNDER EXITING TO THE EAST PRIOR TO 15Z. IFR CIGS
AND LOW VSBY HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA WEST OF I35 AND WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH 15-17Z...LONGEST EAST.
DAYTIME HEATING WILL HELP ERODE THE FOG/LOW ST THOUGH IT WILL TAKE
A FEW HOURS MORE TIME. REMAINDER OF FCST WILL BE PLEASANT WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AFT 20Z. /REV
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...PODRAZIK
AVIATION...REV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
300 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014
MAIN CONCERN REMAINS THE ARRIVAL OF THE RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A
PRONOUNCED RIBBON OF THETAE ADVECTION WITH A RETREATING WARM
FRONT NOW ENTERING NORTHEAST IOWA. RIDGE ALOFT IS WEAKENING THE
BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISO THUNDER MOVING EAST ACROSS THE AREA WHILE
ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS IS DEVELOPING WEST OF THE FIRST LINE AND
MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARD CENTRAL/NORTHERN IOWA AT 07Z. FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT...THUNDER WILL GRAD DIMINISH AND SOME
PATCHY FOG WILL FORM WEST WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING OVER THE AREA
GENERALLY EAST OF I35 AFTER 12Z AND EXITING THE AREA ABOUT 18Z
TODAY. BOTH THE HRRR AND THE NMM ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE
MAIN AREA OF RAIN OVER THE EAST AFT 12Z AND EXITING EAST BY MIDDAY
AND CURRENT TRENDS SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO. AS CLOUDS DEPART... MILD
AIR BEHIND THE BOUNDARY SHOULD WARM QUICKLY WITH HIGHS REACHING
THE LOWER 70S WEST TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S EAST. BUFR SOUNDINGS
INDICATE SOME CU EARLY ON IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT MAINLY SUNNY BY
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014
THE MAIN ISSUE OF THE EXTENDED WAS WITH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND...AND WITH PRECIP CHANCES LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER ECMWF/GFS/SREF FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...THEN CLOSER TO THE ECMWF SUNDAY THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK.
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...NICE WARM DAY ANTICIPATED FOR FRIDAY WITH
GOOD WAA AHEAD OF NEXT WEAK SHORTWAVE SET TO MOVE ACROSS THE
STATE DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS LOOKS TO MAINLY BRING A WESTERLY
WIND SHIFT LATE IN THE DAY. TWEAKED MAX TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO
WITH GOOD MIXING AND SOUTHWEST FLOW. 850MB TEMPS RISE INTO THE
+14C TO +18C RANGE BY 18Z FRIDAY. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH SOME WEAK CAA...BUT STILL LOOKS TO BE ABOVE
NORMAL FOR MAX TEMPERATURES.
THE 850MB RIDGE MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING
ALLOWING FOR SOME STRONG RETURN FLOW INTO THE STATE. THE CAVEAT IS
CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH SOME DECENT THETA-E ADVECTION MOVING
ACROSS THE STATE. THIS SHOULD HELP BALANCE OUT THE WAA...AND ONLY
WENT SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN GUIDANCE IN THE SOUTHWEST FOR HIGHS
SUNDAY. THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE SHOW SOME BROAD ISENTROPIC LIFT BY
THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING SUNDAY AND MAY SPAWN SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN THE
WARM SECTOR MONDAY AND REMAINS CAPPED OFF. THUS...WENT COMPLETELY
DRY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY
MONDAY. THE COLD FRONT AND TROUGH MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH THE ECMWF A BIT STRONGER AND DEEPER WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHILE THE GFS IS STRONGER WITH THE SURFACE
LOW. REGARDLESS...MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR NEXT SIGNIFICANT PRECIP. MUCH COLDER TUESDAY AND
EVEN INTO THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH THE REGION REMAINING IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
&&
.AVIATION...23/06Z
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014
PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE HOW MUCH TO DEGRADE CONDITIONS WITH
PASSAGE OF 5-8 HOUR PERIOD OF WEAK CONVECTION. OBS ARE SOMEWHAT
VARIABLE AT THE MOMENT UPSTREAM...VFR TO IFR...SO PLAYED A MIDDLE
GROUND WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CIGS MAY
OCCUR AFTER PRECIP ENDS WEST. THIS PERIOD SHOULD THEN BE FOLLOWED
BY VFR AND CLEARING INTO MIDDAY AND THE AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE A
FEW PERIODS OF THUNDER WITH THE PRECIP...BUT HAVE OMITTED WORDING
FOR NOW AND WILL PLAY THE SHORT TERM TRENDS FOR UPDATES RATHER
THAN BLANKET TS FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...PODRAZIK
AVIATION...SMALL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
549 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 151 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014
WITH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS THE DRY AND MILD PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS...STALLING OUT JUST NORTH/NORTHEAST OF THE CWA TOMORROW.
TODAY...MOSTLY SUNNY AND RECORD-BREAKING WARMTH. AS OF THE EARLY
AFTERNOON AT LEAST ONE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE HAS BEEN TIED AND A
FEW OTHERS ARE A FEW DEGREES SHY OF RECORD VALUES. RAP ANALYSIS
DEPICTS 850MB TEMPS ON THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE...AND MORNING
TEMPS ROSE ACCORDINGLY. SOME EARLY CLOUD COVER ALONG/EAST OF HIGHWAY
83 LIMITED HEATING THIS MORNING...BUT UNDER NEAR-FULL SUNSHINE EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON TEMPS ARE NEAR FORECAST VALUES. DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN
MARKEDLY DRIER THAN MOST ALL GUIDANCE EXCEPT FOR THE HRRR WHICH HAS
BEEN DEPICTING WHAT SEEMED THIS MORNING TO BE A VERY AGGRESSIVE DROP
IN DEW POINTS...IN THE 20S F ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. WINDS ARE
LIGHT /LESS THAN 10MPH/ SO THANKFULLY FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
NOT A CONCERN TODAY.
TONIGHT...CLOUDS CLEAR OUT BUT WARM AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE. LOW
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID/UPPER 40S...ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION. WITH DRY AIR MOVING
IN FOG IS OF NO CONCERN.
TOMORROW...SATURDAY...ANOTHER DRY AND MILD DAY. TEMPS WILL NOT BE AS
HOT AS FRIDAY AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT...850MB TEMPS IN THE LOW 20S C LEADING TO HIGHS WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AT 10-15
KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS. RECORD HIGHS MAY BE BROKEN...SEE CLIMATE
SECTION FOR DETAILS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014
NAM/SREF ARE SHOWING MOISTURE RETURN EAST OF SURFACE TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN PART OF THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WHICH
COULD LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT. NAM/SREF ARE SHOWING REDUCED VIS IN
THESE AREAS...SO I INTRODUCED PATCHY FOG MENTION OVER THE
NORTHEAST PART OF CWA.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN DECENT AGREEMENT AT LEAST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK ON THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WITH RIDGE KEEPING
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE SUNDAY...AND
A QUICK MOVING POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT.
JUST LIKE IN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...LIFT IS DECENT...HOWEVER
MOISTURE IS NOT IMPRESSIVE AND I CONSIDERED ONLY HAVING MENTION OF
SPRINKLES AND NO MEASURABLE PRECIP. THERE IS STILL A WEAK PRECIP
SIGNAL ON MOST GUIDANCE...AND I COULDNT RULE OUT A FEW LOCATIONS
GETTING A FEW HUNDREDTHS SO I LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN PLACE
MONDAY-MONDAY EVENING. AS THE SURFACE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE CWA
AND SURFACE GRADIENT INCREASES WE COULD SEE WINDY CONDITIONS
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. I TRENDED WINDS UP A LITTLE
MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT AM STILL A LITTLE LOWER THAN WHAT NAM ML
WINDS WOULD INDICATE.
SKIES SHOULD RAPIDLY CLEAR MONDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASING
WINDS...AND LOW TD VALUES IN THE 20S. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND FROST CHANCES APPEAR TO BE INCREASING. I
KEPT FORECAST IN THE 30-36F RANGE...HOWEVER I COULD SEE A FEW COLD
SPOTS DROPPING TO 28F.
PATTERN SHIFTS TO A BRIEF WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW BEFORE RIDGE
AMPLIFIES OVER THE WESTERN US...RESULTING IN NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW
OVER THE PLAINS. GUIDANCE GENERALLY SHOWING A SIMILAR
PATTERN...THOUGH THERE ARE SMALLER VARIANCES LIKELY A RESULT OF
WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES. A VERY DRY AIR MASS IS ADVERTISED...SO
EVEN IF WE DO SE DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW I DO NOT
ANTICIPATE PRECIP AND ONLY PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. TEMPS WILL TEND TO
BE JUST BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS AROUND 60F MONDAY-FRIDAY...WITH
WESTERLY FLOW SUPPORTING SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE UPPER 60S/NEAR 70
ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 544 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. LIGHT NORTHWEST TO WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
THROUGH ABOUT 16Z SATURDAY MORNING. BY 19Z WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
TURN SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 10-15KTS AS A SURFACE LEE TROUGH DEEPENS
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES FROM THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...LOCKHART
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1135 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 642 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014
DENSE FOG CONTINUES TO MAKE SLOW PROGRESS TOWARD THE WEST AND IS
NOW FURTHER WEST THAN ANY MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING.
SO EXPANDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY ONE ROW OF COUNTIES FURTHER
WEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014
TODAY-TONIGHT...UPPER HIGH CURRENTLY CENTERED JUST SOUTHWEST OF
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AREA WILL EXPAND AND
STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO BY 12Z FRIDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S.
AS FOR THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY...WILL EXTEND IT A FEW MORE HOURS TIL
16Z AS THE RUC IS HOLDING ONTO IT A BIT LONGER THEN PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED.
FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...UPPER HIGH AND RIDGE SLIDE SLOWLY INTO
WEST/SOUTHWEST TEXAS BY 12Z SATURDAY. SOME CIRRUS EXPECTED FRIDAY
MORNING BEFORE EXITING EAST AND OUT OF THE AREA BY THE END OF THE
DAY. CLEAR SKY EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN
THE MID 80S...EXCEPTION ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF FAR EASTERN
COLORADO WHERE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S EXPECTED. LOWS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S.
RECORD/NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE FOR A FEW
LOCATIONS...SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.
SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...UPPER HIGH SLIDES SOUTHEAST INTO
SOUTHERN TEXAS BY 12Z SUNDAY AS UPPER FLOW SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHWEST
AS LARGE PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM MOVES ASHORE. CLOUDINESS WILL BE
CONFINED TO POSSIBLY A FEW AFTERNOON CUMULUS CLOUDS...OTHERWISE
CLEAR. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE COOLER AS SFC WINDS
TURN TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST WITH 75 TO 80 ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
INTERSTATE...LOW 80S TO THE SOUTH. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S
TO AROUND 50.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1249 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014
MAIN CONCERNS ARE THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES AT
THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. STILL A LOT OF SPREAD BETWEEN THE
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE OUTPUT WITH SIMILAR TRENDS FROM
YESTERDAY. THE NEW ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE SLOWEST AND MOST
AMPLIFIED WITH UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING AND MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION IN THE SUNDAY TO MONDAY NIGHT PERIOD. THE CANADIAN IS THE
FASTEST WITH THE GFS IN THE MIDDLE.
WITH THE SLOWER ARRIVAL AND DRIER AIR MASS IN PLACE...SUNDAY NIGHT
IS LOOKING DRY AND LIKE WHAT THE CRH_INIT GAVE ME. BULK OF THE
TROUGH/ASSOCIATED LIFT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.
MODELS DIFFER ON PLACEMENT OF THE JET LIFT BUT THEY EITHER HAVE A
RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OR LEFT FRONT QUADRANT MOVING THROUGH DURING
THE DAY. EVEN THOUGH THE MODELS VARY IN THE SPEED THEY ARE MOVING
THE SYSTEM THROUGH...THEY IN GENERAL ARE A LITTLE SLOWER.
AS A RESULT OF THAT AND THE LIFT BEING STRONGER...RAINFALL LOOKS
LIKE IT LASTS INTO AT LEAST THE EVENING. SO LIKE THE LINGERING
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THE INIT GAVE ME AND WILL KEEP. BIG DIFFERENCES
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD AND BECAUSE OF THAT AND
GENERAL PATTERN SUPPORTING DRY CONDITIONS...KEPT THE DRY POPS THE
INIT GAVE ME.
SECONDARY PROBLEM WILL BE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY
FOLLOWED BY THE LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS. SAME
GENERAL PATTERN IN PLACE FOR SUNDAY WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
HOWEVER...MODEL OUTPUT IS NOW MORE CONSISTENT IN BACKING SOME KIND
OF BOUNDARY INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND THEN
LIFTING IT OUT SUNDAY. HOWEVER IT DOES LOOK LIKE THAT FRONT STAYS
OVER A PORTION OF THE AREA SO A BIG GRADIENT IN TEMPERATURE COULD
OCCUR THIS DAY AND THE FORECAST PROBLEMATIC. SO DECIDED TO NOT
TOUCH THOSE MAXES.
MODELS IN MORE AGREEMENT ON THE COOLER MAXES FOR MONDAY WITH THE
GFS/ECMWF IN BETTER WITH THE CANADIAN MUCH COLDER. FORECAST MAXES
LOOK REASONABLE BUT IT IS DEFINITELY POSSIBLE THAT MAXES COULD BE
EVEN COLDER THAN WHAT WILL BE IN THERE. FOR MONDAY NIGHT...SLOWER
DEPARTURE OF THE SYSTEM WILL KEEP CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE NIGHT AT THE VERY LEAST. DEFINITELY COULD SEE FROST WITH
THE NORTHWEST PORTION HAVE THE BEST SHOT FOR THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE JUST AS COLD OR COLDER
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WILL ALSO HAVE TO BE WATCHED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1127 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT GLD AND MCK.
CLEAR SKIES WITH JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS /15-20KFT AGL/ THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE
LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS. AT THIS POINT
FOG/STRATUS IS NOT EXPECTED TOMORROW MORNING...BUT GIVEN
PERSISTENCEOF DENSE FOG THIS MORNING AND LITTLE CHANGE IN
OVERALL AIRMASS FROM THIS MORNING TO TOMORROW MORNING ANOTHER
FOG/STRATUS EVENT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. HOWEVER HAVE LEANED
AGAINST INCLUDING ANY FOG/STRATUS IN THE FORECAST DUE TO LITTLE
SUPPORTING GUIDANCE AND THINKING THAT THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS
TODAY SHOULD ADVECT SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA...ENOUGH TO
PREVENT FOG/STRATUS FROM DEVELOPING.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE IN JEOPARDY OF BEING TIED OR BROKEN
AT THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS FRIDAY OCTOBER 24:
BURLINGTON....84 IN 1952
COLBY.........87 IN 2003
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR KSZ003-004-
014>016-028-029-042.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...JJM
CLIMATE...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
644 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 642 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014
DENSE FOG CONTINUES TO MAKE SLOW PROGRESS TOWARD THE WEST AND IS
NOW FURTHER WEST THAN ANY MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING.
SO EXPANDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY ONE ROW OF COUNTIES FURTHER
WEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014
TODAY-TONIGHT...UPPER HIGH CURRENTLY CENTERED JUST SOUTHWEST OF
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AREA WILL EXPAND AND
STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO BY 12Z FRIDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S.
AS FOR THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY...WILL EXTEND IT A FEW MORE HOURS TIL
16Z AS THE RUC IS HOLDING ONTO IT A BIT LONGER THEN PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED.
FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...UPPER HIGH AND RIDGE SLIDE SLOWLY INTO
WEST/SOUTHWEST TEXAS BY 12Z SATURDAY. SOME CIRRUS EXPECTED FRIDAY
MORNING BEFORE EXITING EAST AND OUT OF THE AREA BY THE END OF THE
DAY. CLEAR SKY EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN
THE MID 80S...EXCEPTION ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF FAR EASTERN
COLORADO WHERE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S EXPECTED. LOWS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S.
RECORD/NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE FOR A FEW
LOCATIONS...SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.
SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...UPPER HIGH SLIDES SOUTHEAST INTO
SOUTHERN TEXAS BY 12Z SUNDAY AS UPPER FLOW SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHWEST
AS LARGE PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM MOVES ASHORE. CLOUDINESS WILL BE
CONFINED TO POSSIBLY A FEW AFTERNOON CUMULUS CLOUDS...OTHERWISE
CLEAR. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE COOLER AS SFC WINDS
TURN TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST WITH 75 TO 80 ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
INTERSTATE...LOW 80S TO THE SOUTH. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S
TO AROUND 50.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1249 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014
MAIN CONCERNS ARE THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES AT
THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. STILL A LOT OF SPREAD BETWEEN THE
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE OUTPUT WITH SIMILAR TRENDS FROM
YESTERDAY. THE NEW ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE SLOWEST AND MOST
AMPLIFIED WITH UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING AND MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION IN THE SUNDAY TO MONDAY NIGHT PERIOD. THE CANADIAN IS THE
FASTEST WITH THE GFS IN THE MIDDLE.
WITH THE SLOWER ARRIVAL AND DRIER AIR MASS IN PLACE...SUNDAY NIGHT
IS LOOKING DRY AND LIKE WHAT THE CRH_INIT GAVE ME. BULK OF THE
TROUGH/ASSOCIATED LIFT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.
MODELS DIFFER ON PLACEMENT OF THE JET LIFT BUT THEY EITHER HAVE A
RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OR LEFT FRONT QUADRANT MOVING THROUGH DURING
THE DAY. EVEN THOUGH THE MODELS VARY IN THE SPEED THEY ARE MOVING
THE SYSTEM THROUGH...THEY IN GENERAL ARE A LITTLE SLOWER.
AS A RESULT OF THAT AND THE LIFT BEING STRONGER...RAINFALL LOOKS
LIKE IT LASTS INTO AT LEAST THE EVENING. SO LIKE THE LINGERING
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THE INIT GAVE ME AND WILL KEEP. BIG DIFFERENCES
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD AND BECAUSE OF THAT AND
GENERAL PATTERN SUPPORTING DRY CONDITIONS...KEPT THE DRY POPS THE
INIT GAVE ME.
SECONDARY PROBLEM WILL BE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY
FOLLOWED BY THE LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS. SAME
GENERAL PATTERN IN PLACE FOR SUNDAY WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
HOWEVER...MODEL OUTPUT IS NOW MORE CONSISTENT IN BACKING SOME KIND
OF BOUNDARY INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND THEN
LIFTING IT OUT SUNDAY. HOWEVER IT DOES LOOK LIKE THAT FRONT STAYS
OVER A PORTION OF THE AREA SO A BIG GRADIENT IN TEMPERATURE COULD
OCCUR THIS DAY AND THE FORECAST PROBLEMATIC. SO DECIDED TO NOT
TOUCH THOSE MAXES.
MODELS IN MORE AGREEMENT ON THE COOLER MAXES FOR MONDAY WITH THE
GFS/ECMWF IN BETTER WITH THE CANADIAN MUCH COLDER. FORECAST MAXES
LOOK REASONABLE BUT IT IS DEFINITELY POSSIBLE THAT MAXES COULD BE
EVEN COLDER THAN WHAT WILL BE IN THERE. FOR MONDAY NIGHT...SLOWER
DEPARTURE OF THE SYSTEM WILL KEEP CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE NIGHT AT THE VERY LEAST. DEFINITELY COULD SEE FROST WITH
THE NORTHWEST PORTION HAVE THE BEST SHOT FOR THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE JUST AS COLD OR COLDER
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WILL ALSO HAVE TO BE WATCHED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014
KGLD...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. MAY SEE SOME AFTERNOON CU THIS
MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AND SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT.
LIGHT WIND AT TAF ISSUANCE EXPECTED TO BACK TO THE SOUTH/SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST AROUND 10KTS BY 18Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT
BEFORE VEERING TO THE WEST NEAR 10KTS TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD.
KMCK...MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AT TAF ISSUANCE WITH IFR/VLIFR
CONDITIONS JUST EAST OR ON TOP OF THE TERMINAL FROM TAF ISSUANCE
THROUGH 14Z BEFORE BECOMING VFR THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF
PERIOD. WILL NEED TO WATCH THE 08Z-12Z TIMEFRAME FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF IFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS AS LOW LEVEL AIRMASS CURRENTLY
OVER THE TERMINAL REDEVELOPS DESPITE SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 5-10KTS.
LIGHT WEST WIND AT TAF ISSUANCE EXPECTED TO BACK TO THE SOUTH AT
SIMILAR SPEEDS BY 18Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH 03Z BEFORE VEERING TO
THE SOUTHWEST THEN WEST FROM 04Z THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF
PERIOD.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE IN JEOPARDY OF BEING TIED OR BROKEN
AT THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS FRIDAY OCTOBER 24:
BURLINGTON....84 IN 1952
COLBY.........87 IN 2003
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ002>004-
014>016-028-029-042.
CO...NONE.
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ080-081.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...99
CLIMATE...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
300 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014
TODAY-TONIGHT...UPPER HIGH CURRENTLY CENTERED JUST SOUTHWEST OF
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AREA WILL EXPAND AND
STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO BY 12Z FRIDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S.
AS FOR THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY...WILL EXTEND IT A FEW MORE HOURS TIL
16Z AS THE RUC IS HOLDING ONTO IT A BIT LONGER THEN PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED.
FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...UPPER HIGH AND RIDGE SLIDE SLOWLY INTO
WEST/SOUTHWEST TEXAS BY 12Z SATURDAY. SOME CIRRUS EXPECTED FRIDAY
MORNING BEFORE EXITING EAST AND OUT OF THE AREA BY THE END OF THE
DAY. CLEAR SKY EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN
THE MID 80S...EXCEPTION ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF FAR EASTERN
COLORADO WHERE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S EXPECTED. LOWS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S.
RECORD/NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE FOR A FEW
LOCATIONS...SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.
SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...UPPER HIGH SLIDES SOUTHEAST INTO
SOUTHERN TEXAS BY 12Z SUNDAY AS UPPER FLOW SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHWEST
AS LARGE PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM MOVES ASHORE. CLOUDINESS WILL BE
CONFINED TO POSSIBLY A FEW AFTERNOON CUMULUS CLOUDS...OTHERWISE
CLEAR. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE COOLER AS SFC WINDS
TURN TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST WITH 75 TO 80 ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
INTERSTATE...LOW 80S TO THE SOUTH. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S
TO AROUND 50.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1249 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014
MAIN CONCERNS ARE THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES AT
THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. STILL A LOT OF SPREAD BETWEEN THE
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE OUTPUT WITH SIMILAR TRENDS FROM
YESTERDAY. THE NEW ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE SLOWEST AND MOST
AMPLIFIED WITH UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING AND MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION IN THE SUNDAY TO MONDAY NIGHT PERIOD. THE CANADIAN IS THE
FASTEST WITH THE GFS IN THE MIDDLE.
WITH THE SLOWER ARRIVAL AND DRIER AIR MASS IN PLACE...SUNDAY NIGHT
IS LOOKING DRY AND LIKE WHAT THE CRH_INIT GAVE ME. BULK OF THE
TROUGH/ASSOCIATED LIFT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.
MODELS DIFFER ON PLACEMENT OF THE JET LIFT BUT THEY EITHER HAVE A
RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OR LEFT FRONT QUADRANT MOVING THROUGH DURING
THE DAY. EVEN THOUGH THE MODELS VARY IN THE SPEED THEY ARE MOVING
THE SYSTEM THROUGH...THEY IN GENERAL ARE A LITTLE SLOWER.
AS A RESULT OF THAT AND THE LIFT BEING STRONGER...RAINFALL LOOKS
LIKE IT LASTS INTO AT LEAST THE EVENING. SO LIKE THE LINGERING
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THE INIT GAVE ME AND WILL KEEP. BIG DIFFERENCES
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD AND BECAUSE OF THAT AND
GENERAL PATTERN SUPPORTING DRY CONDITIONS...KEPT THE DRY POPS THE
INIT GAVE ME.
SECONDARY PROBLEM WILL BE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY
FOLLOWED BY THE LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS. SAME
GENERAL PATTERN IN PLACE FOR SUNDAY WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
HOWEVER...MODEL OUTPUT IS NOW MORE CONSISTENT IN BACKING SOME KIND
OF BOUNDARY INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND THEN
LIFTING IT OUT SUNDAY. HOWEVER IT DOES LOOK LIKE THAT FRONT STAYS
OVER A PORTION OF THE AREA SO A BIG GRADIENT IN TEMPERATURE COULD
OCCUR THIS DAY AND THE FORECAST PROBLEMATIC. SO DECIDED TO NOT
TOUCH THOSE MAXES.
MODELS IN MORE AGREEMENT ON THE COOLER MAXES FOR MONDAY WITH THE
GFS/ECMWF IN BETTER WITH THE CANADIAN MUCH COLDER. FORECAST MAXES
LOOK REASONABLE BUT IT IS DEFINITELY POSSIBLE THAT MAXES COULD BE
EVEN COLDER THAN WHAT WILL BE IN THERE. FOR MONDAY NIGHT...SLOWER
DEPARTURE OF THE SYSTEM WILL KEEP CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE NIGHT AT THE VERY LEAST. DEFINITELY COULD SEE FROST WITH
THE NORTHWEST PORTION HAVE THE BEST SHOT FOR THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE JUST AS COLD OR COLDER
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WILL ALSO HAVE TO BE WATCHED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014
KGLD...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. MAY SEE SOME AFTERNOON CU THIS
MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AND SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT.
LIGHT WIND AT TAF ISSUANCE EXPECTED TO BACK TO THE SOUTH/SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST AROUND 10KTS BY 18Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT
BEFORE VEERING TO THE WEST NEAR 10KTS TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD.
KMCK...MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AT TAF ISSUANCE WITH IFR/VLIFR
CONDITIONS JUST EAST OR ON TOP OF THE TERMINAL FROM TAF ISSUANCE
THROUGH 14Z BEFORE BECOMING VFR THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF
PERIOD. WILL NEED TO WATCH THE 08Z-12Z TIMEFRAME FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF IFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS AS LOW LEVEL AIRMASS CURRENTLY
OVER THE TERMINAL REDEVELOPS DESPITE SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 5-10KTS.
LIGHT WEST WIND AT TAF ISSUANCE EXPECTED TO BACK TO THE SOUTH AT
SIMILAR SPEEDS BY 18Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH 03Z BEFORE VEERING TO
THE SOUTHWEST THEN WEST FROM 04Z THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF
PERIOD.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE IN JEOPARDY OF BEING TIED OR BROKEN
AT THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS FRIDAY OCTOBER 24:
BURLINGTON....84 IN 1952
COLBY.........87 IN 2003
&&
$$
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ003-004-
015-016-029.
CO...NONE.
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ081.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...99
CLIMATE...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
610 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
TO NOVA SCOTIA THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN...HEAVY AT
TIMES ACROSS ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE
REGION. THIS LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
540 PM UPDATE: FCST 6 HRLY QPF FOR TNGT THRU FRI WAS RE-DONE WITH
POPS BASED ON THIS QPF DISTRIBUTION RE-CALCULATED...RESULTING IN
AREAS WE XPCT SIG RNFL (WHICH IS THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE FA)
HAVING 100 PERCENT POPS FCST THRU THESE PTNS OF THESE PDS. WE ALSO
INTRODUCED ISOLD THUNDER TO DOWNEAST AREAS INTO THIS EVE BASED ON
SAT IMAGERY AND LGTNG DETECTION SHOWING SPORADIC LGTNG STRIKES MOVG
TOWARD DOWNEAST ME FROM THE GULF OF ME. WHATS LEFT OF ELEVATED
CAPE SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATE TNGT...BUT WE WILL MONITOR THIS IN
CASE WE NEED TO XTND THIS MENTION LATER INTO THE NGT. THE LATEST
RUN OF THE HRRR MODEL OUTPUT SHOWS THE POTENTIAL OF FAIRLY INTENSE
RN BANDING MOVG NW FROM THE BAY OF FUNDY LATER THIS EVE...THEN
SLOWLY MOVG NWRD INTO CNTRL AND SRN PTNS OF NE ME LATER OVRNGT.
SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS DIFFER AS TO HOW MUCH INTENSITY WILL BE LEFT
TO THIS BAND BY ERLY FRI MORN...WITH THE 12Z ECMWF AND SPCLY 12
AND 18Z GFS DTMNSTC MODEL RUNS MUCH HEAVIER WITH QPF THEN
CORRESPONDING NAM...SREF AND EVEN TWICE THE GFS ENSM QPF OVRNGT
INTO FRI. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES AND SPREAD OF THESE SOLUTIONS...
WE TRIED TO TAKE A MIDDLE GROUND BETWEEN THESE TWO CAMPS OF MODEL
QPF SOLUTIONS FOR NOW. OTHERWISE...WE UPDATED FCST HRLY TEMPS
THRU THE OVRNGT TO UN- MODIFIED FCST LOWS FOR ERLY FRI MORN BASED
ON TRENDS SEEN FROM 5 PM OBSVD TEMPS FROM THE PREV FCST OF HRLY
TEMPS AT THIS HR.
ORGNL DISC: A LOW SLOWLY TRACKING ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE WILL
INFLUENCE THE WEATHER FOR THE AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE SATELLITE...AND MODEL DATA SUPPORT A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW
THAT IS BECOMING COLD CORE. AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THE
GFS/NAM/GEM/ECMWF ALL PLACE THE LOW JUST SE OF CAPE COD...WITH THE
OCCLUDED FRONT WRAPPED AROUND THE CENTER EXTENDING NORTH INTO
CENTRAL MAINE. ALL MEMBER CONTINUE TO SHOW THE HEAVIEST QPF
FALLING ACROSS THE DOWNEAST COAST...AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST. BY
TOMORROW MORNING THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT.
TAKING THE LOW ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE...EAST OF CAPE COD...SOUTH
OF EASTPORT. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE LOW TRACK EAST TO A
POSITION SOUTHEAST OF YARMOUTH ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA. THE REMNANTS OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT REMAIN OVER NRN
MAINE...CLEARING BEGINS ACROSS SW AND WRN MAINE.
LOADED A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF/GEM/NAM THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR
MAX/MIN TEMPS...HRLY T/DP/WND/SKY/POP. LOADED 80 PERCENT HPCQPF...ADDED
15 PERCENT TO WNDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT OVER WATER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOOK FOR RAIN TO FINALLY TAPER OFF FRIDAY EVENING AS THE SYSTEM
KICKS OUT TO THE EAST. A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER INTO SATURDAY
MORNING MAINLY OVER FAR NORTHEAST MAINE. DRY DAY IN STORE FOR
SATURDAY. HOWEVER, ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BE HOT ON ITS HEELS. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE FAIRLY MINOR, WITH SHOWERS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND TAPERING OFF SUNDAY EVENING. EXPECT LESS
THAN A HALF INCH OF RAIN WITH THE SYSTEM, WITH THE HIGHER TOTALS
LIKELY BEING OVER NORTHERN MAINE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SEASONABLY COOL AND DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY, THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN MONDAY NIGHT. THEN WARMER
TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. NEXT SYSTEM POISED TO IMPACT US
LATE WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A FAST HITTING COLD FRONT
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. A QUICK PERIOD OF SHOWERS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY COOLER, DRIER WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MODELS ARE
IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR PREVAILING CONDITIONS ACROSS MAINE THROUGH TONIGHT. SLOW
IMPROVEMENTS LATE IN THE PERIOD FOR BGR AND BHB.
SHORT TERM: LINGERING MVFR FRIDAY NIGHT PRIMARILY FAR EASTERN
MAINE. VFR EVERYWHERE BY MIDDAY SATURDAY, THEN MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING MAINLY FOR NORTHERN MAINE
AS A WEAK SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: GALE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 1 AM. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
SUBSIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT. AN SCA WILL BE REQUIRED AFTER 1 AM.
SHORT TERM: NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS FRIDAY EVENING WILL
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. WEST WINDS THEN INCREASE BACK UP TO NEAR
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS OF 25 KNOTS SUNDAY. SEAS WILL BE 3 TO 5 FEET FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE BEEN REPORTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
DOWNEAST AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST MAINE. AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 1.5
INCHES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO FALL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AT
THIS TIME THERE HAVE BEEN NO REPORTS OF ANY FLOODING ISSUES ACROSS
THE AFFECTED AREA. THIS COMBINED WITH THE AMOUNT AND DURATION OF
THE ADDITIONAL PRECIP THE FLOOD WATCH WAS CANCELLED.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...FOISY
AVIATION...VJN/FOISY
MARINE...VJN/FOISY
HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
1243 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL INTENSIFY AS IT
SLOWLY MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES ACROSS ESPECIALLY CENTRAL
AND DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE REGION. THIS LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE
OPEN ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY ONLY TO BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER LOW
CROSSING THE REGION FROM CENTRAL CANADA ON SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
12:30 AM UPDATE...UPPER RIDGE IS HOLDING STRONG ATTM PER THE
LATEST SATELLITE WV IMAGERY AND 00Z UPPER AIR W/RAIN BEING HELD AT
BAY ACROSS THE NORTH. RAINFALL IS SPLIT PER THE LATEST RADAR LOOP
SHOWING ONE AREA CONFINED TO EASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY AND THE
OTHER ACROSS THE HOULTON AND MILLINOCKET AREA AND OVER WESTERN
NEW BRUNSWICK. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED ENHANCED CLOUDS ACROSS
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN MAINE AS WELL AS OFFSHORE. THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL IS ASSOCIATED W/THE ENHANCED CLOUDS PER THE LATEST
REGIONAL RADAR LOOP. THE HRRR & CANADIAN GEM WERE DOING WELL
W/THE LATEST SETUP. THEREFORE, DECIDED TO SCALE BACK THE QPF FROM
00-06Z AND ADJUST THE POPS STAYING W/20-40% ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER AND LEANED W/80+% POPS FOR THE HOULTON AND MILLINOCKET REGION AND
ACROSS EASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY THROUGH 09Z AND STEADIER RAIN
WILL SLOWLY FILL IN ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AND CENTRAL MAINE BY 12Z.
HRLY TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED TO FIT THE CURRENT SITUATION
SHOWING UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST AND MID
TO UPPER 40S DOWNEAST TO THE COAST.
A 1004 MB LOW CURRENTLY LIES JUST OFF THE DELMARVA COAST. THIS
SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY NORTHWARD TONIGHT AND THURSDAY, GRADUALLY
DEEPENING AS IT DOES SO. BANDS OF RAIN SPINNING AROUND THIS LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT INTO MAINE THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER,
WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING WEDGED JUST TO OUR NORTH, THE
PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE A HARD TIME MAKING NORTHWARD PROGRESS.
WIDESPREAD STEADY RAIN WILL BE THE RULE FOR THE REGION FOR THE
DAY THURSDAY. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL AND
ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA. IN PARTICULAR, AN AREA
OF HEAVY RAIN LOOKS TO SET UP ACROSS SOUTHERN MAINE EARLY THURSDAY
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A MOISTURE PLUME AND DEFORMATION BAND. THIS
BAND WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY, FOCUSING IN ON THE
FAVORED EAST-FACING UPSLOPE REGIONS OF CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST MAINE.
THEREFORE, THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THESE LOCATIONS
TOMORROW THROUGH FRIDAY. SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR MORE
INFORMATION.
THE OTHER CONCERN FOR THE NEAR TERM PERIOD IS GUSTY WINDS. A 50-55KT
JET WILL SET UP OVER COASTAL MAINE AT 925 MB LATER TODAY AND REMAIN
INTO THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE EVENTUALLY LIFTING OUT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. SOME OF THIS JET COULD WELL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE,
ESPECIALLY IN ANY HEAVIER RAIN BANDS, RESULTING IN GUSTS OF 40-45
MPH. HAVE THEREFORE ALLOWED THE WIND ADVISORY TO REMAIN FOR COASTAL
HANCOCK AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH SLOWLY LIFTING THE DEFORMATION
RN BAND FROM DOWNEAST THRU ALL OF NRN PTNS OF THE FA THU NGT THRU
FRI...SUBSEQUENTLY WE WENT WITH HIGHER 6 HRLY RNFL TOTALS WITH
THE BAND TRAVERSING ACROSS THE N...PARTICULARLY ON FRI. THIS
RESULTED IN A NET INCREASE OF A HLF INCH OF STM TOTAL RNFL OVR
THIS PTN OF THE FA COMPARED TO YSTDY`S AFTN UPDATE. FOR NOW...WE
DID NOT GO QUITE AS HEAVY AS TDY`S 12Z OPNL GFS MODEL IMPLIES...
WHICH APPEARS OVERZEALOUS WHEN COMPARING TO 09Z SREF...12Z GFS ESM
AND WPC FCSTS...SO WE SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THESE TWO
MODEL CAMPS. OTHERWISE...RN WILL TAPER TO SHWRS FROM S TO N
ACROSS THE FA FRI AFTN INTO FRI NGT. SAT WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED AS
WHAT`S LEFT OF THE LLVL MOISTURE FIELD WITH THE WRN PERIPHERY OF
THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW AFFECTS THE REGION. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR AVG
FOR DYTM HIGHS AND ABV AVG FOR NGT LOWS AS WOULD BE XPCTD WITH A
MARITIME REDUCED DIURNAL/NOCTURNAL TEMP RANGE REGIME.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WITH LITTLE OR NO BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS...ANOTHER STRONG S/WV FROM
CNTRL CAN WILL TAKE OVR WHERE THE MID ATLC UPPER LOW LEAVES OFF
SAT NGT. UNLIKE THIS CURRENT SYSTEM...THIS NEW SYSTEM FROM CNTRL
CAN WILL NOT HAVE AS MUCH ATLC MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...SO 6 HRLY
QPFS WILL BE LIGHTER SAT NGT THRU SUN NGT...THE TM THE DEVELOPING
UPPER LOW WILL TAKE TO CROSS OUR FA. HIGHEST POPS...IN THE LIKELY
RANGE ARE WEIGHTED ACROSS THE N SAT NGT INTO SUN MORN. THIS SYSTEM
WILL ALSO IMPORT COLDER AIR ALF OVR THE REGION SPCLY SUN NGT AND
ERLY MON MORN WHEN THE UPPER LOW IS DEPARTING...MEANING RN SHWRS
COULD MIX WITH OR CHG TO WET SN SHWRS MSLY OVR NRN HIER TRRN LCTNS
AT THIS TM BEFORE COMPLETELY ENDING BY MON AFTN. BOTH HI TEMPS AND
LOW TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER SUN THRU MON.
CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN IMPROVING MON AFTN...WITH CLRG SKIES MON
NGT. UNDER PTLY TO MSLY SUNNY SKIES...HI TEMPS SHOULD BE WARMER ON
TUE. AFTWRDS...THE 12Z OPNL GFS AND ECMWF MODELS DVRGNG WITH THEIR
SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE TMG OF THE NEXT S/WV AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
SYSTEM APCHG FROM THE GREAT LKS DURING THE MID WEEK...WITH THE
ECMWF BEING ABT 12 TO 24 HRS SLOWER. CONSENSUS MODEL BLEND POPS
SUGGEST CHC SHWR POPS FOR WED...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HI REGARDING
THIS TMG. LOWS TEMPS TUE NGT AND HI TEMPS WED SHOULD BE MILD...BUT
NOT LOOKING AS WARM AS IT DID FOR THESE DAYS AS COMPARED TO YSTDY`S
GUIDANCE ATTM.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY WORSEN THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WIDESPREAD RAIN MOVES INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER,
THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS OF KBGR AND KBHB HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF
DROPPING TO IFR CONDITIONS, MAINLY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN AT THESE TWO
LOCATIONS, WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KT POSSIBLE.
SHORT TO LONG TERM: IFR CLG AND RN/SHWR CONDITIONS XPCTD ACROSS
THE REGION FRI...IMPROVING TO MVFR OVR DOWNEAST SITES FRI NGT AND
THEN ALL SITES ON SAT. MVFR CONDITIONS CONT ON SUN...WITH POSSIBLE
IFR OVR NRN TAF SITES SUN NGT. CONDITIONS IMPROVE ON MON TO VFR
DOWNEAST SITES AND MVFR NRN TAF SITES.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF OUR
WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN GUSTING WELL INTO
THE 40-45 KT RANGE. SEAS ARE GENERALLY HAVE BEEN 11 TO 13 FT, WITH
SOME SWELLS REACHING NEARLY 14 FT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST.
COASTAL FLOODING DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AN ISSUE DUE TO THE
PRIMARY WAVE DIRECTION. ALSO, THE HIGH TIDES ARE NOT THE HIGHEST
OF THE LUNAR MONTH. A CALL TO BOTH HANCOCK AND WASHINGTON
COUNTIES REVEALED NO OVERWASH PROBLEMS AT THIS TIME. IN ADDITION,
OUR LOCAL WAVE RUNUP MODEL DOES NOT INDICATE THAT THERE WILL BE
ANY SPLASH OVER. HOWEVER, LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE
EYE ON WIND AND WAVE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
SHORT TO LONG TERM: THE GLW THAT BEGINS ERLY IN THE SHORT TERM
WILL NEED TO BE REPLACED BY A TRANSITIONAL SCA FOR WINDS AND SPCLY
WVS...SPCLY FOR OUTER WATERS THU NGT INTO FRI...WITH ALL WATERS
BLO SCA CRITERIA BY FRI NGT. WINDS AND WVS WILL REMAIN BLO OR NEAR
MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS SAT THRU MON.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE, A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 3 TO 5
INCHES ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST MAINE, THIS WILL BE A MULTI-DAY
ACCUMULATION. MAINSTEM RIVERS ARE CURRENTLY NEAR NORMAL FLOWS, AND
ALL OF THE THE NERFC`S ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE KEEPS THESE WATERWAYS
BELOW FLOOD STAGE THROUGH THE EVENT. HOWEVER, SMALL STREAMS COULD
VERY WELL REACH BANKFULL. ALSO, AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE COULD
EXPERIENCE MINOR FLOODING, ESPECIALLY SINCE STORM DRAINS WILL
LIKELY BE CLOGGED BY LEAVES AND OTHER DEBRIS. THEREFORE, THE FLOOD
WATCH HAS BEEN CONTINUED FOR HANCOCK, WASHINGTON, AND CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PENOBSCOT AND PISCATAQUIS COUNTIES.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
FOR MEZ010-011-015>017-029>032.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
121 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014
THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY QUIET BY OCTOBER STANDARDS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER TODAY
WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE. TONIGHT A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL PROVIDE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.
SKIES WILL TURN PARTLY SUNNY ON FRIDAY WITH A COLD FRONT SET TO MOVE
THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. AT THIS POINT IT
LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH DRY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES THE REST OF THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 50S TO
AROUND 60.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1019 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014
WE HAVE ALLOWED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO COME TO AN END ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA. THERE ARE A FEW OBSERVATIONS AT THE AIRPORTS
STILL INDICATING VSBYS AROUND 1/4SM...HOWEVER CONDITIONS ARE
GENERALLY IMPROVING QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA. AN EXAMPLE IS KGRR
STILL REPORTING 3/4SM AT 1416Z...HOWEVER CONDITIONS AROUND MOST OF THE
AIRPORT HAVE IMPROVED MUCH MORE AT THE SAME TIME.
WE WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FCST FOR THE DAY TODAY. MOST OF THE LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS COMING IN
AFTER 00Z ACROSS THE LAKESHORE. WITH THE CURRENT MOVEMENT OF THE
RAIN SHOWERS IN WI MOVING MORE NORTH THAN EAST...IT WILL TAKE A
WHILE FOR PCPN TO MAKE IT TO THE AREA. ALSO...A DRY ATMOSPHERE IN
PLACE WILL ERODE THE PCPN AS IT TRIES TO MOVE TOWARD THE AREA..
UPDATE ISSUED AT 544 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014
HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
THROUGH 1000 AM. FOG HAS EXPANDED QUITE A BIT IN THE LAST HALF
HOUR WITH STRATUS BEGINNING TO SHOW UP IN THE FOG SATELLITE
PRODUCT WHICH IS INDICATIVE OF A MORE WIDESPREAD FOG. HAVE QUARTER
MILE VISIBILITIES IN ALL AREAS NOW AND IT WILL LIKELY EXPAND TO
AREAS NOT CURRENTLY SEEING IT. A LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW IS IN PLACE
IN THE LOWEST 50MB/S PER THE RUC13 AND THIS SHOULD ADVECT IT EVEN
TO THE LAKESHORE AREAS WITH TIME. WE STILL HAVE ABOUT 2.5 HOURS
BEFORE SUNRISE...SO IT SHOULD EXPAND AND BECOME MORE DENSE. NPWGRR
IS ALREADY OUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014
LIMITED CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM BUT THE FOCUS WAS ON EXTENT OF
FOG THIS MORNING...CHANCE FOR RAIN TONIGHT AND SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN
CHANCES SATURDAY MORNING.
AS FOR THE FOG...THINK WE ARE LOOKING AT PATCHY RADIATIONAL GROUND
FOG THIS MORNING. SEVERAL SITES ARE CURRENTLY AT A QUARTER OF A MILE
VISIBILITY SO WE WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON WHETHER OR NOT IT EXPANDS
AND BECOMES WORTHY OF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY. FOG SATELLITE PRODUCT IS
BEGINNING TO SHOW HINTS AT STRATUS FORMING.
REGARDING RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT...IT LOOKS ABOUT THE SAME AS THE LAST
FEW NIGHTS...30/40 PCT CHANCE ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST DURING THE
EVENING. A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY SEEN IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER
THE DAKOTAS MOVES THROUGH OUT REGION TONIGHT. SOME WEAK MOISTURE
TRANSPORT OCCURS AT 850MB/S ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH. FEEL
THE BEST CHANCES WILL OCCUR EARLY ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY
131...BECOMING ISOLATED OVERNIGHT AND ENDING.
ANOTHER BRIEF SHOT AT SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN MAY COME LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT TRAVERSES THE AREA. THE
MAIN UPPER SUPPORT WITH THIS FRONT IS WELL NORTH OF SOUTHWEST
LOWER...BUT THERE IS A PUSH OF SOME MOISTURE INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTH. THE ECMWF IS PAINTING SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIP ALONG THE LAKE
MICHIGAN SHORE SATURDAY MORNING. KEPT THE FORECAST DRY AT THIS POINT
AS NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH WE WILL SEE ANYTHING.
OTHERWISE...QUIET TODAY OUTSIDE OF SOME MORNING FOG. WE SHOULD
BECOME AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE
PEELS OFF TO THE EAST.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014
THE UPPER LOW MOVES TO EASTERN CANADA TO START THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
THIS WILL ALLOW UPPER AND SURFACE RIDGING TO BUILD OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THE CHILLY TEMPS WILL MOVE OUT OF THE REGION AS THIS
OCCURS WITH SOLID WARM ADVECTION BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE LATTER PART
OF THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY...BUT WE SHOULD SEE WARM
ADVECTION CLOUDS ARRIVE ON THE HEELS OF THIS WARMUP SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOULD MOVE IN MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT. THE
VIGOROUS SYSTEM THAT WAS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR THIS MORNING OFF THE
BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST SHOULD MOVE OVER THE ROCKIES AND HELP PUMP
WARM AND MOIST GULF AIR INTO THE REGION. THERE IS POOR AGREEMENT IN
THE MODELS ON THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM INTO MID WEEK BUT IT APPEARS
A COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT. SO THE RAIN
CHANCES SHOULD PEAK IN THIS TIME FRAME. ADDED THUNDER TO THE
FORECAST FOR TUESDAY GIVEN THE HIGHER TEMPS/DEWPOINTS EXPECTED WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT. IT SHOULD TURN COLDER AGAIN ONCE THE
FRONT PASSES WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 50S BY WED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 121 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014
THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS HAVE FINALLY MIXED OUT AND ALL TAF SITES
ARE VFR. I EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL INTO THE LATE NIGHT
HOURS. AFTER MIDNIGHT A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY COMES THROUGH
SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN AND BRINGS IN AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS AND REDUCED
VISIBILITIES WITH IT. WHILE THERE IS CURRENTLY A RAIN AREA WITH
THIS SYSTEM... I AM THINKING THE RAIN AREA WILL LARGELY DISSIPATE
BEFORE REACHING THE SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN TAF SITES. I DID PUT VCSH
AT MKG SINCE IT WOULD SEEM THAT WOULD BE THE MOSTLY LIKELY
LOCATION TO SEE ANY PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SYSTEM. ONCE THE LOW
CLOUDS MOVE IN THEY WILL BE SLOW TO LEAVE SO I ALLOWED THE LOW
CEILING AND VISIBILITIES TO PERSIST THROUGH 18Z TOMORROW.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014
NO MARINE CONCERNS TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING
EAST ALLOWING FOR LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW TO TAKE HOLD. THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR WINDS AND WAVES BECOMING AN ISSUE WILL BE FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION. SATURDAY
ESPECIALLY...20-30 KNOT NORTHWEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED WHICH WILL
BOOST WAVE HEIGHTS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014
STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY HYDRO ISSUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. VERY
LIMITED RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. THE FIRST CHANCE FOR RAIN
WILL BE TONIGHT...BUT NOT EXPECTED TOTALS MORE THAN 0.05 ANYWHERE.
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RIVER LEVELS
REMAIN LOW AT THE PRESENT TIME.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...NJJ
SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...DUKE
MARINE...DUKE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1019 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014
THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY QUIET BY OCTOBER STANDARDS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER TODAY
WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE. TONIGHT A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL PROVIDE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.
SKIES WILL TURN PARTLY SUNNY ON FRIDAY WITH A COLD FRONT SET TO MOVE
THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. AT THIS POINT IT
LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH DRY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES THE REST OF THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 50S TO
AROUND 60.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1019 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014
WE HAVE ALLOWED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO COME TO AN END ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA. THERE ARE A FEW OBSERVATIONS AT THE AIRPORTS
STILL INDICATING VSBYS AROUND 1/4SM...HOWEVER CONDITIONS ARE
GENERALLY IMPROVING QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA. AN EXAMPLE IS KGRR
STILL REPORTING 3/4SM AT 1416Z...HOWEVER CONDITIONS AROUND MOST OF THE
AIRPORT HAVE IMPROVED MUCH MORE AT THE SAME TIME.
WE WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FCST FOR THE DAY TODAY. MOST OF THE LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS COMING IN
AFTER 00Z ACROSS THE LAKESHORE. WITH THE CURRENT MOVEMENT OF THE
RAIN SHOWERS IN WI MOVING MORE NORTH THAN EAST...IT WILL TAKE A
WHILE FOR PCPN TO MAKE IT TO THE AREA. ALSO...A DRY ATMOSPHERE IN
PLACE WILL ERODE THE PCPN AS IT TRIES TO MOVE TOWARD THE AREA..
UPDATE ISSUED AT 544 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014
HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
THROUGH 1000 AM. FOG HAS EXPANDED QUITE A BIT IN THE LAST HALF
HOUR WITH STRATUS BEGINNING TO SHOW UP IN THE FOG SATELLITE
PRODUCT WHICH IS INDICATIVE OF A MORE WIDESPREAD FOG. HAVE QUARTER
MILE VISIBILITIES IN ALL AREAS NOW AND IT WILL LIKELY EXPAND TO
AREAS NOT CURRENTLY SEEING IT. A LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW IS IN PLACE
IN THE LOWEST 50MB/S PER THE RUC13 AND THIS SHOULD ADVECT IT EVEN
TO THE LAKESHORE AREAS WITH TIME. WE STILL HAVE ABOUT 2.5 HOURS
BEFORE SUNRISE...SO IT SHOULD EXPAND AND BECOME MORE DENSE. NPWGRR
IS ALREADY OUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014
LIMITED CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM BUT THE FOCUS WAS ON EXTENT OF
FOG THIS MORNING...CHANCE FOR RAIN TONIGHT AND SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN
CHANCES SATURDAY MORNING.
AS FOR THE FOG...THINK WE ARE LOOKING AT PATCHY RADIATIONAL GROUND
FOG THIS MORNING. SEVERAL SITES ARE CURRENTLY AT A QUARTER OF A MILE
VISIBILITY SO WE WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON WHETHER OR NOT IT EXPANDS
AND BECOMES WORTHY OF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY. FOG SATELLITE PRODUCT IS
BEGINNING TO SHOW HINTS AT STRATUS FORMING.
REGARDING RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT...IT LOOKS ABOUT THE SAME AS THE LAST
FEW NIGHTS...30/40 PCT CHANCE ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST DURING THE
EVENING. A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY SEEN IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER
THE DAKOTAS MOVES THROUGH OUT REGION TONIGHT. SOME WEAK MOISTURE
TRANSPORT OCCURS AT 850MB/S ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH. FEEL
THE BEST CHANCES WILL OCCUR EARLY ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY
131...BECOMING ISOLATED OVERNIGHT AND ENDING.
ANOTHER BRIEF SHOT AT SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN MAY COME LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT TRAVERSES THE AREA. THE
MAIN UPPER SUPPORT WITH THIS FRONT IS WELL NORTH OF SOUTHWEST
LOWER...BUT THERE IS A PUSH OF SOME MOISTURE INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTH. THE ECMWF IS PAINTING SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIP ALONG THE LAKE
MICHIGAN SHORE SATURDAY MORNING. KEPT THE FORECAST DRY AT THIS POINT
AS NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH WE WILL SEE ANYTHING.
OTHERWISE...QUIET TODAY OUTSIDE OF SOME MORNING FOG. WE SHOULD
BECOME AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE
PEELS OFF TO THE EAST.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014
THE UPPER LOW MOVES TO EASTERN CANADA TO START THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
THIS WILL ALLOW UPPER AND SURFACE RIDGING TO BUILD OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THE CHILLY TEMPS WILL MOVE OUT OF THE REGION AS THIS
OCCURS WITH SOLID WARM ADVECTION BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE LATTER PART
OF THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY...BUT WE SHOULD SEE WARM
ADVECTION CLOUDS ARRIVE ON THE HEELS OF THIS WARMUP SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOULD MOVE IN MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT. THE
VIGOROUS SYSTEM THAT WAS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR THIS MORNING OFF THE
BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST SHOULD MOVE OVER THE ROCKIES AND HELP PUMP
WARM AND MOIST GULF AIR INTO THE REGION. THERE IS POOR AGREEMENT IN
THE MODELS ON THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM INTO MID WEEK BUT IT APPEARS
A COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT. SO THE RAIN
CHANCES SHOULD PEAK IN THIS TIME FRAME. ADDED THUNDER TO THE
FORECAST FOR TUESDAY GIVEN THE HIGHER TEMPS/DEWPOINTS EXPECTED WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT. IT SHOULD TURN COLDER AGAIN ONCE THE
FRONT PASSES WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 50S BY WED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 734 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014
DENSE FOG IS FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH
LIFR CONDITIONS PREVALENT. THE FOG AND STRATUS WILL LINGER INTO
THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE LIFTING BETWEEN 14Z AND 16Z. HIGH
CLOUDS WILL SPREAD IN DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT VFR WEATHER IS
FORECAST. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS
CLOUDS LOWER TO BASES AROUND 5000FT AFTER DARK. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
WILL SPREAD IN THIS EVENING AS WELL. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL TRY TO
SETTLE IN TONIGHT AS CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LOWER WITH TIME.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014
NO MARINE CONCERNS TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING
EAST ALLOWING FOR LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW TO TAKE HOLD. THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR WINDS AND WAVES BECOMING AN ISSUE WILL BE FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION. SATURDAY
ESPECIALLY...20-30 KNOT NORTHWEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED WHICH WILL
BOOST WAVE HEIGHTS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014
STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY HYDRO ISSUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. VERY
LIMITED RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. THE FIRST CHANCE FOR RAIN
WILL BE TONIGHT...BUT NOT EXPECTED TOTALS MORE THAN 0.05 ANYWHERE.
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RIVER LEVELS
REMAIN LOW AT THE PRESENT TIME.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...NJJ
SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...DUKE
MARINE...DUKE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
735 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014
THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY QUIET BY OCTOBER STANDARDS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER TODAY
WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE. TONIGHT A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL PROVIDE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.
SKIES WILL TURN PARTLY SUNNY ON FRIDAY WITH A COLD FRONT SET TO MOVE
THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. AT THIS POINT IT
LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH DRY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES THE REST OF THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 50S TO
AROUND 60.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 544 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014
HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
THROUGH 1000 AM. FOG HAS EXPANDED QUITE A BIT IN THE LAST HALF
HOUR WITH STRATUS BEGINNING TO SHOW UP IN THE FOG SATELLITE
PRODUCT WHICH IS INDICATIVE OF A MORE WIDESPREAD FOG. HAVE QUARTER
MILE VISIBILITIES IN ALL AREAS NOW AND IT WILL LIKELY EXPAND TO
AREAS NOT CURRENTLY SEEING IT. A LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW IS IN PLACE
IN THE LOWEST 50MB/S PER THE RUC13 AND THIS SHOULD ADVECT IT EVEN
TO THE LAKESHORE AREAS WITH TIME. WE STILL HAVE ABOUT 2.5 HOURS
BEFORE SUNRISE...SO IT SHOULD EXPAND AND BECOME MORE DENSE. NPWGRR
IS ALREADY OUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014
LIMITED CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM BUT THE FOCUS WAS ON EXTENT OF
FOG THIS MORNING...CHANCE FOR RAIN TONIGHT AND SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN
CHANCES SATURDAY MORNING.
AS FOR THE FOG...THINK WE ARE LOOKING AT PATCHY RADIATIONAL GROUND
FOG THIS MORNING. SEVERAL SITES ARE CURRENTLY AT A QUARTER OF A MILE
VISIBILITY SO WE WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON WHETHER OR NOT IT EXPANDS
AND BECOMES WORTHY OF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY. FOG SATELLITE PRODUCT IS
BEGINNING TO SHOW HINTS AT STRATUS FORMING.
REGARDING RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT...IT LOOKS ABOUT THE SAME AS THE LAST
FEW NIGHTS...30/40 PCT CHANCE ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST DURING THE
EVENING. A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY SEEN IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER
THE DAKOTAS MOVES THROUGH OUT REGION TONIGHT. SOME WEAK MOISTURE
TRANSPORT OCCURS AT 850MB/S ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH. FEEL
THE BEST CHANCES WILL OCCUR EARLY ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY
131...BECOMING ISOLATED OVERNIGHT AND ENDING.
ANOTHER BRIEF SHOT AT SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN MAY COME LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT TRAVERSES THE AREA. THE
MAIN UPPER SUPPORT WITH THIS FRONT IS WELL NORTH OF SOUTHWEST
LOWER...BUT THERE IS A PUSH OF SOME MOISTURE INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTH. THE ECMWF IS PAINTING SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIP ALONG THE LAKE
MICHIGAN SHORE SATURDAY MORNING. KEPT THE FORECAST DRY AT THIS POINT
AS NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH WE WILL SEE ANYTHING.
OTHERWISE...QUIET TODAY OUTSIDE OF SOME MORNING FOG. WE SHOULD
BECOME AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE
PEELS OFF TO THE EAST.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014
THE UPPER LOW MOVES TO EASTERN CANADA TO START THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
THIS WILL ALLOW UPPER AND SURFACE RIDGING TO BUILD OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THE CHILLY TEMPS WILL MOVE OUT OF THE REGION AS THIS
OCCURS WITH SOLID WARM ADVECTION BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE LATTER PART
OF THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY...BUT WE SHOULD SEE WARM
ADVECTION CLOUDS ARRIVE ON THE HEELS OF THIS WARMUP SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOULD MOVE IN MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT. THE
VIGOROUS SYSTEM THAT WAS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR THIS MORNING OFF THE
BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST SHOULD MOVE OVER THE ROCKIES AND HELP PUMP
WARM AND MOIST GULF AIR INTO THE REGION. THERE IS POOR AGREEMENT IN
THE MODELS ON THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM INTO MID WEEK BUT IT APPEARS
A COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT. SO THE RAIN
CHANCES SHOULD PEAK IN THIS TIME FRAME. ADDED THUNDER TO THE
FORECAST FOR TUESDAY GIVEN THE HIGHER TEMPS/DEWPOINTS EXPECTED WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT. IT SHOULD TURN COLDER AGAIN ONCE THE
FRONT PASSES WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 50S BY WED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 734 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014
DENSE FOG IS FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH
LIFR CONDITIONS PREVALENT. THE FOG AND STRATUS WILL LINGER INTO
THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE LIFTING BETWEEN 14Z AND 16Z. HIGH
CLOUDS WILL SPREAD IN DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT VFR WEATHER IS
FORECAST. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS
CLOUDS LOWER TO BASES AROUND 5000FT AFTER DARK. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
WILL SPREAD IN THIS EVENING AS WELL. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL TRY TO
SETTLE IN TONIGHT AS CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LOWER WITH TIME.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014
NO MARINE CONCERNS TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING
EAST ALLOWING FOR LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW TO TAKE HOLD. THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR WINDS AND WAVES BECOMING AN ISSUE WILL BE FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION. SATURDAY
ESPECIALLY...20-30 KNOT NORTHWEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED WHICH WILL
BOOST WAVE HEIGHTS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014
STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY HYDRO ISSUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. VERY
LIMITED RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. THE FIRST CHANCE FOR RAIN
WILL BE TONIGHT...BUT NOT EXPECTED TOTALS MORE THAN 0.05 ANYWHERE.
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RIVER LEVELS
REMAIN LOW AT THE PRESENT TIME.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ037>040-
043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DUKE
SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...DUKE
MARINE...DUKE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
545 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014
THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY QUIET BY OCTOBER STANDARDS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER TODAY
WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE. TONIGHT A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL PROVIDE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.
SKIES WILL TURN PARTLY SUNNY ON FRIDAY WITH A COLD FRONT SET TO MOVE
THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. AT THIS POINT IT
LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH DRY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES THE REST OF THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 50S TO
AROUND 60.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 544 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014
HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
THROUGH 1000 AM. FOG HAS EXPANDED QUITE A BIT IN THE LAST HALF
HOUR WITH STRATUS BEGINNING TO SHOW UP IN THE FOG SATELLITE
PRODUCT WHICH IS INDICATIVE OF A MORE WIDESPREAD FOG. HAVE QUARTER
MILE VISIBILITIES IN ALL AREAS NOW AND IT WILL LIKELY EXPAND TO
AREAS NOT CURRENTLY SEEING IT. A LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW IS IN PLACE
IN THE LOWEST 50MB/S PER THE RUC13 AND THIS SHOULD ADVECT IT EVEN
TO THE LAKESHORE AREAS WITH TIME. WE STILL HAVE ABOUT 2.5 HOURS
BEFORE SUNRISE...SO IT SHOULD EXPAND AND BECOME MORE DENSE. NPWGRR
IS ALREADY OUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014
LIMITED CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM BUT THE FOCUS WAS ON EXTENT OF
FOG THIS MORNING...CHANCE FOR RAIN TONIGHT AND SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN
CHANCES SATURDAY MORNING.
AS FOR THE FOG...THINK WE ARE LOOKING AT PATCHY RADIATIONAL GROUND
FOG THIS MORNING. SEVERAL SITES ARE CURRENTLY AT A QUARTER OF A MILE
VISIBILITY SO WE WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON WHETHER OR NOT IT EXPANDS
AND BECOMES WORTHY OF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY. FOG SATELLITE PRODUCT IS
BEGINNING TO SHOW HINTS AT STRATUS FORMING.
REGARDING RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT...IT LOOKS ABOUT THE SAME AS THE LAST
FEW NIGHTS...30/40 PCT CHANCE ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST DURING THE
EVENING. A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY SEEN IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER
THE DAKOTAS MOVES THROUGH OUT REGION TONIGHT. SOME WEAK MOISTURE
TRANSPORT OCCURS AT 850MB/S ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH. FEEL
THE BEST CHANCES WILL OCCUR EARLY ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY
131...BECOMING ISOLATED OVERNIGHT AND ENDING.
ANOTHER BRIEF SHOT AT SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN MAY COME LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT TRAVERSES THE AREA. THE
MAIN UPPER SUPPORT WITH THIS FRONT IS WELL NORTH OF SOUTHWEST
LOWER...BUT THERE IS A PUSH OF SOME MOISTURE INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTH. THE ECMWF IS PAINTING SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIP ALONG THE LAKE
MICHIGAN SHORE SATURDAY MORNING. KEPT THE FORECAST DRY AT THIS POINT
AS NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH WE WILL SEE ANYTHING.
OTHERWISE...QUIET TODAY OUTSIDE OF SOME MORNING FOG. WE SHOULD
BECOME AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE
PEELS OFF TO THE EAST.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014
THE UPPER LOW MOVES TO EASTERN CANADA TO START THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
THIS WILL ALLOW UPPER AND SURFACE RIDGING TO BUILD OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THE CHILLY TEMPS WILL MOVE OUT OF THE REGION AS THIS
OCCURS WITH SOLID WARM ADVECTION BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE LATTER PART
OF THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY...BUT WE SHOULD SEE WARM
ADVECTION CLOUDS ARRIVE ON THE HEELS OF THIS WARMUP SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOULD MOVE IN MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT. THE
VIGOROUS SYSTEM THAT WAS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR THIS MORNING OFF THE
BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST SHOULD MOVE OVER THE ROCKIES AND HELP PUMP
WARM AND MOIST GULF AIR INTO THE REGION. THERE IS POOR AGREEMENT IN
THE MODELS ON THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM INTO MID WEEK BUT IT APPEARS
A COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT. SO THE RAIN
CHANCES SHOULD PEAK IN THIS TIME FRAME. ADDED THUNDER TO THE
FORECAST FOR TUESDAY GIVEN THE HIGHER TEMPS/DEWPOINTS EXPECTED WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT. IT SHOULD TURN COLDER AGAIN ONCE THE
FRONT PASSES WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 50S BY WED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 117 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014
A WIDE MIX OF CONDITIONS WAS ACROSS THE REGION AS OF 05Z...FROM VFR
TO IFR. SKIES WERE MAINLY CLEAR...BUT THERE WERE PATCHES OF
STRATUS AROUND. ONE PATCH WAS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL LOWER...NEAR
Y70...WITH ANOTHER PATCH OVER NW OH. BOTH AREAS WERE MOVING SLOWLY
WEST. THERE WAS ALSO PATCHES OF FOG AROUND WHICH SHOULD EXPAND
SOMEWHAT.
TRENDED THE TAFS MAINLY MVFR...BUT EXPECT THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME
IFR AROUND THROUGH SUNRISE. AFTER 13Z EXPECT THE FOG AND STRATUS
TO DISSIPATE.
BY LATE THIS EVENING A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. SOME SHOWERS WILL
MOVE IN...ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MVFR FOR WESTERN TAF SITES.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014
NO MARINE CONCERNS TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING
EAST ALLOWING FOR LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW TO TAKE HOLD. THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR WINDS AND WAVES BECOMING AN ISSUE WILL BE FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION. SATURDAY
ESPECIALLY...20-30 KNOT NORTHWEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED WHICH WILL
BOOST WAVE HEIGHTS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014
STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY HYDRO ISSUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. VERY
LIMITED RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. THE FIRST CHANCE FOR RAIN
WILL BE TONIGHT...BUT NOT EXPECTED TOTALS MORE THAN 0.05 ANYWHERE.
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RIVER LEVELS
REMAIN LOW AT THE PRESENT TIME.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ037>040-
043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DUKE
SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...JK
HYDROLOGY...DUKE
MARINE...DUKE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
333 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER RIDGE FROM THE THE
SRN MS VALLEY THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES AND AN UPSTREAM TROUGH
FROM SASK INTO THE WRN PLAINS. AT THE SFC...SRLY FLOW WAS INCREASING
THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY WRN UPPER MI AS THE SFC RIDGE SHIFTS OFF
TO THE EAST INTO LOWER MI. VIS LOOP SHOWED SOME PATCHY MID CLOUDS
STREAMING INTO SW UPPER MI WITH CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REST OF THE
CWA.
TONIGHT AND WED...MDLS WERE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT BRINGING THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH INTO TO WRN MN BY 12Z/THU AND WRN UPPER MI BY 00Z/FRI.
EVEN THROUGH THERE MAY SEVERAL SEPARATE SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE
TROUGH...THE MODELS HAVE ALSO TRENDED TOWARD BRINGING ONE OF THE
STRONGER SHRTWVS TOWARD THE CWA. THE MODERATE 700-300MB QVECTOR CONV
ALONG WITH SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE INFLOW (PWAT REACHES AOA 1.0 INCH OR
220 PCT OF NORMAL)WILL BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LIKELY POPS THROUGH THE
AREA BY THU AFTERNOON. THE PCPN MAY BE DELAYED AT THE ONSET AS THE
SFC-800 MB DRY LAYER PERSISTS UNTIL THE STRONGER DYNAMICS ARRIVE
INTO W UPPER MI LATE TONIGHT AND CENTRL UPPER MI BY AROUND 18Z.
RELATIVELY LIGHT QPF OF 0.2 INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED GIVEN THE
MODEST DYNAMICS AND PROGRESSIVE PATTERN.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014
NAM SHOWS A 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SW 12Z FRI WITH A SHORTWAVE
OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. THIS SHORTWAVE HEADS EAST AND AFFECTS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES FRI NIGHT WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE PLAINS
SAT NIGHT. NAM BRINGS IN SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE FRI
NIGHT WITH SOME LIMITED MOISTURE WHICH MOVES OUT SAT MORNING. LOOKS
LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PCPN WILL STILL BE WELL NORTH AND EAST OF
THE AREA AND KEPT IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE ERN CWA AS THE AREA
GETS BRUSHED BY THIS SHORTWAVE. ON SATURDAY...WILL BE QUITE GUSTY
FOR WINDS.
IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. WITH A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS AND A TROUGH IN THE
PACIFIC NW 12Z SUN. THIS RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z
MON WITH TROUGHING MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES. THE TROUGH MOVES INTO
THE PLAINS 12Z TUE AND LINGERS INTO WED. THE ECMWF IS MORE AMPLIFIED
WITH THIS TROUGH THAN THE GFS IS AND SEEMS TO BE KEEPING A SOUTHERN
STREAM AND NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES SEPARATE. GFS IS MUCH WEAKER
WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE. WITH THE TROUGH IN THE AREA AND
A FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...CHANCES FOR PCPN LOOK GOOD WITH
TEMPERATURES GOING FROM ABOVE NORMAL AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
EXTENDED TO NEAR NORMAL AT THE END OF THE FORECAST. WILL BE DRY ON
SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014
A WEAKENING DISTURBANCE AND FRONT WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHRA
INTO UPPER MI THRU THU. INITIALLY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE
AT KIWD/KCMX...BUT AS THE BAND OF MOISTURE AND SHRA ALONG/AHEAD OF
FRONT CONTINUES TO SHIFT E...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO FALL TO MVFR THIS
MORNING/EARLY AFTN...BEGINNING FIRST AT KIWD. NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION THAT A PERIOD OF IFR COULD OCCUR AROUND THE TIME PCPN ENDS.
AT KSAW...COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER AND UPSLOPE SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS LED
TO DEVELOPMENT OF LIFR CONDITIONS. LIFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE UNTIL MID MORNING WHEN A BREAK OUT TO VFR SHOULD OCCUR.
MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY RETURN LATE IN THE DAY AT KSAW AS WEAKENING
FRONT AND SHRA APPROACH. ON ANOTHER NOTE...WITH LOW LEVEL JET NOSING
INTO FAR WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN LLWS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AT
KIWD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 410 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014
SRLY WINDS WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE DEPARTS THE AREA AND A TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WIND GUSTS
DURING THIS TIME SHOULD STAY AOB 20KTS. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ON FRIDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT SWEEPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
ON FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO
30KTS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION FOR SUNDAY AND DIMINISH WINDS BELOW 20KTS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
122 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER RIDGE FROM THE THE
SRN MS VALLEY THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES AND AN UPSTREAM TROUGH
FROM SASK INTO THE WRN PLAINS. AT THE SFC...SRLY FLOW WAS INCREASING
THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY WRN UPPER MI AS THE SFC RIDGE SHIFTS OFF
TO THE EAST INTO LOWER MI. VIS LOOP SHOWED SOME PATCHY MID CLOUDS
STREAMING INTO SW UPPER MI WITH CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REST OF THE
CWA.
TONIGHT AND WED...MDLS WERE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT BRINGING THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH INTO TO WRN MN BY 12Z/THU AND WRN UPPER MI BY 00Z/FRI.
EVEN THROUGH THERE MAY SEVERAL SEPARATE SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE
TROUGH...THE MODELS HAVE ALSO TRENDED TOWARD BRINGING ONE OF THE
STRONGER SHRTWVS TOWARD THE CWA. THE MODERATE 700-300MB QVECTOR CONV
ALONG WITH SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE INFLOW (PWAT REACHES AOA 1.0 INCH OR
220 PCT OF NORMAL)WILL BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LIKELY POPS THROUGH THE
AREA BY THU AFTERNOON. THE PCPN MAY BE DELAYED AT THE ONSET AS THE
SFC-800 MB DRY LAYER PERSISTS UNTIL THE STRONGER DYNAMICS ARRIVE
INTO W UPPER MI LATE TONIGHT AND CENTRL UPPER MI BY AROUND 18Z.
RELATIVELY LIGHT QPF OF 0.2 INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED GIVEN THE
MODEST DYNAMICS AND PROGRESSIVE PATTERN.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014
GIVEN THE SIGNIFICANT LOSS OF THE SATELLITE INGEST INTO THE
NUMERICAL MODELS /WITH NESDIS SATELLITE COMMS ISSUES CAUSING MISSING
OR OLD IMAGES ON WEB PAGES/...UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FCST SOLUTIONS
MAY BE HIGHER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS PERIOD. THIS HAS BEEN THE CASE
SINCE THE 22/00Z RUNS. AT THIS TIME...THERE IS NO DETAILS ON WHEN
THE ISSUE WILL BE FIXED.
EXPECT LINGERING SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT THE E PROGRESSION OF
ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN WILL BE LIMITED. A SFC RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER E
LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH LAKE HURON THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. WITH LIGHT
S WINDS AND 850MB TEMPS RISING TO 8-11C...HIGHS ON FRIDAY COULD BE
IN THE LOW 60S OVER THE W HALF OF THE CWA.
THE NEXT SFC LOW OVER OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL CROSS MANITOBA ON FRIDAY...AND N-CENTRAL ONTARIO FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL NEAR THE NE PORTIONS
OF THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT.
AS THE SFC HIGH WILL QUICKLY PUSH IN FROM THE N PLAINS AND MID MS
VALLEY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...AS THE LOW EXITS INTO ONTARIO AND THE
NEW ENGLAND STATES. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. THE
MAIN WEATHER FEATURE WILL BE INCREASING WNW WINDS ON SATURDAY...WITH
GUSTS NEARING 25-35MPH /STRONGEST NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AND ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN/. INCREASED WINDS A BIT EARLIER THAN OUR PREVIOUS
FCST FOR SATURDAY.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN AT THE SFC. FCST MODELS ARE STILL CONSISTENT WITH
AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM S CENTRAL CANADA
THROUGH THE S PLAINS STATES AT 12Z MONDAY TO CROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BEFORE EXITING INTO ONTARIO.
WHETHER OR NOT A SFC TROUGH LINGERS BEHIND THE LOW INTO WEDNESDAY IS
STILL IN QUESTION...LEADING TO A LOW CONFIDENCE FCST STILL FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON ON. NEXT WEDNESDAY IS A COMPLETE TOSS UP...WITH
850MB TEMPS OFF THE 12Z RUNS RANGING FROM -5C TO 3C. WILL ADD A
SMALL MENTION OF SNOW SHOWERS IN N-NW FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. THERE
MAY NOT BE ENOUGH PRECIP IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT...AS A SECONDARY
LOW WRAPS NEARS FROM THE MID MS VALLEY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014
A WEAKENING DISTURBANCE AND FRONT WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHRA
INTO UPPER MI THRU THU. INITIALLY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE
AT KIWD/KCMX...BUT AS THE BAND OF MOISTURE AND SHRA ALONG/AHEAD OF
FRONT CONTINUES TO SHIFT E...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO FALL TO MVFR THIS
MORNING/EARLY AFTN...BEGINNING FIRST AT KIWD. NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION THAT A PERIOD OF IFR COULD OCCUR AROUND THE TIME PCPN ENDS.
AT KSAW...COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER AND UPSLOPE SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS LED
TO DEVELOPMENT OF LIFR CONDITIONS. LIFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE UNTIL MID MORNING WHEN A BREAK OUT TO VFR SHOULD OCCUR.
MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY RETURN LATE IN THE DAY AT KSAW AS WEAKENING
FRONT AND SHRA APPROACH. ON ANOTHER NOTE...WITH LOW LEVEL JET NOSING
INTO FAR WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN LLWS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AT
KIWD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 410 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014
SRLY WINDS WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE DEPARTS THE AREA AND A TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WIND GUSTS
DURING THIS TIME SHOULD STAY AOB 20KTS. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ON FRIDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT SWEEPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
ON FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO
30KTS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION FOR SUNDAY AND DIMINISH WINDS BELOW 20KTS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1212 PM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 402 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014
Early morning satellite and radar imagery show a notable trough
crossing the Plains of Canada and the United States while an
associated weak surface front which has yet to make it into our
forecast area. Pre-frontal lift has shifted into eastern Kansas and
northwest Missouri overnight bringing a progressive line of showers
to the region. Short range hi-res models like the HRRR and RUC point
at the current round of showers progressing slowly east this morning
along with the trough, but with the better upper level kinematics of
the trough shifting to our northeast, and weak to non-existent
surface convergence with the front, there wont be much to keep
storms going through the day. As a result, expect early morning
stormy activity to persist past sunrise but that it will likely fade
away during the afternoon hours. Only concern for the afternoon
hours is if the low clouds hold strong, providing an environment for
drizzle. Current model soundings do not look to support drizzle, so
have left it out for now. Otherwise, temperatures behind this system
are not particularly cool as highs in the 60s and 70s still look
possible across the region today.
After the trough moves through today a broad ridge will quickly move
in and dominate the weather for Friday and through the weekend. This
will result in a rebound in temperatures with our already above
normal readings continuing their run through the weekend. In fact,
expect some areas across the Missouri-Kansas border region may see
afternoon highs top out around 80 degrees over the weekend.
Next chance at stormy weather will arrive early next week, Monday
into Tuesday as a trough swings out of the mountainous west through
the Plains. Current model solutions advertise another round of
storms moving through Monday night through Tuesday. Also, with the
returning storms will come some more seasonally normal temperatures
as our highs in the 70s will retreat back into the 60s. However,
overnight low look to only range as low as the 40s, so it looks like
any frost or freeze issue might be at least another week away.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1201 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014
Cloud cover will remain in place throughout the forecast period with
a break or two expected Thursday evening. Expecting MVFR conditions
to continue with gradual improvement behind the cold front as it
slides eastward. Favorable conditions will present a chance of minor fog
development for all terminals overnight.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...Welsh
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
602 AM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 402 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014
Early morning satellite and radar imagery show a notable trough
crossing the Plains of Canada and the United States while an
associated weak surface front which has yet to make it into our
forecast area. Pre-frontal lift has shifted into eastern Kansas and
northwest Missouri overnight bringing a progressive line of showers
to the region. Short range hi-res models like the HRRR and RUC point
at the current round of showers progressing slowly east this morning
along with the trough, but with the better upper level kinematics of
the trough shifting to our northeast, and weak to non-existent
surface convergence with the front, there wont be much to keep
storms going through the day. As a result, expect early morning
stormy activity to persist past sunrise but that it will likely fade
away during the afternoon hours. Only concern for the afternoon
hours is if the low clouds hold strong, providing an environment for
drizzle. Current model soundings do not look to support drizzle, so
have left it out for now. Otherwise, temperatures behind this system
are not particularly cool as highs in the 60s and 70s still look
possible across the region today.
After the trough moves through today a broad ridge will quickly move
in and dominate the weather for Friday and through the weekend. This
will result in a rebound in temperatures with our already above
normal readings continuing their run through the weekend. In fact,
expect some areas across the Missouri-Kansas border region may see
afternoon highs top out around 80 degrees over the weekend.
Next chance at stormy weather will arrive early next week, Monday
into Tuesday as a trough swings out of the mountainous west through
the Plains. Current model solutions advertise another round of
storms moving through Monday night through Tuesday. Also, with the
returning storms will come some more seasonally normal temperatures
as our highs in the 70s will retreat back into the 60s. However,
overnight low look to only range as low as the 40s, so it looks like
any frost or freeze issue might be at least another week away.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 559 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014
Showers moved into the terminals early this morning and will persist
in and around the Kansas City sites for a few hours past sunrise.
KSTJ will likely not see any more stormy activity given current radar
trends. Otherwise, have pushed ceilings down a little based on CIGS
heights noted across eastern Kansas. Expect clouds to lift and begin
scattering out this afternoon allowing VFR conditions to prevail for
the rest of the TAF period.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...Cutter
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
402 AM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 402 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014
Early morning satellite and radar imagery show a notable trough
crossing the Plains of Canada and the United States while an
associated weak surface front which has yet to make it into our
forecast area. Prefrontal lift has shifted into eastern Kansas and
northwest Missouri overnight bringing a progressive line of showers
to the region. Short range hi-res models like the HRRR and RUC point
at the current round of showers progressing slowly east this morning
along with the trough, but with the better upper level kinematics of
the trough shifting to our northeast, and weak to non-existent
surface convergence with the front, there wont be much to keep
storms going through the day. As a result, expect early morning
stormy activity to persist past sunrise but that it will likely fade
away during the afternoon hours. Only concern for the afternoon
hours is if the low clouds hold strong, providing an environment for
drizzle. Current model soundings do not look to support drizzle, so
have left it out for now. Otherwise, temperatures behind this system
are not particularly cool as highs in the 60s and 70s still look
possible across the region today.
After the trough moves through today a broad ridge will quickly move
in and dominate the weather for Friday and through the weekend. This
will result in a rebound in temperatures with our already above
normal readings continuing their run through the weekend. In fact,
expect some areas across the Missouri-Kansas border region may see
afternoon highs top out around 80 degrees over the weekend.
Next chance at stormy weather will arrive early next week, Monday
into Tuesday as a trough swings out of the mountainous west through
the Plains. Current model solutions advertise another round of
storms moving through Monday night through Tuesday. Also, with the
returning storms will come some more seasonally normal temperatures
as our highs in the 70s will retreat back into the 60s. However,
overnight low look to only range as low as the 40s, so it looks like
any frost or freeze issue might be at least another week away.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1145 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
Line of showers are approaching the KS/MO border but the timing of
arrival at the TAF sites have been pushed back slightly again with
this update (~07Z for MCI/MKC, a bit sooner for IXD/STJ). While VFR
conditions are anticipated to prevail throughout much of this
forecast period, could see some drops to MVFR with any heavier
showers that may traverse the terminals. However, this activity is
still expected to generally remain on the lighter side. Winds will be
at their strongest overnight through the morning hours on Thursday,
backing off as the clouds and precip clear in the afternoon hours.
Southerly to southwesterly winds will dominate.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...LG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1152 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 353 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
Late this afternoon an elongated area of showers and isolated
thunderstorms extends from the Dakotas southward into north central
Kansas and further south scattered into central Texas. This
activity is associated with an upper trough propagating through the
northern Plains along with a secondary vorticity maximum in the
southern stream moving into western Oklahoma. Short range models
such as the HRRR and local WRF seemed to be doing a good job with
the timing of the precipitation into the forecast area. Still
expecting rain to spread into the area first in northwest Missouri
later this evening, then gradually across the rest of the forecast
area after midnight.
Upper features and weak surface boundary gradually exit the area
tomorrow bringing an end to the precipitation from west to east. A
few of the model time sections try to hold on to some cloud cover
during the day tomorrow especially over northeast Missouri, however
still anticipating seeing improving conditions in the afternoon
particularly over eastern Kansas and western Missouri.
Air mass behind the surface boundary moving through on Thursday not
significantly different than air mass currently over region so if
clouds can clear would still expect temperatures to rebound to above
seasonal values tomorrow. Significant warming of the lower and
middle layers of the atmosphere is forecast for Thursday night and
Friday. 850hPa temperatures approach +18C by 00Z Saturday in eastern
Kansas and western Missouri and as a result surface temperatures
should warm into the middle and upper 70s on Friday.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 353 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
A very pleasant weekend in store as a broad upper level ridge builds
into the country`s mid-section. This puts the CWA under northwest
flow aloft and surface winds shifting around from more northerly at
the start of the weekend to southeasterly by Sunday. With 850mb
temperatures progged to be in the mid teens, and thermal ridge axis
across the CWA Saturday afternoon, wouldn`t be surprised to see a
few locations reach 80 degrees by mid-afternoon. The upper level
ridge will shift eastward and over the area by Sunday, and allow for
another beautiful fall day with highs reaching the low 80s. However,
these reminiscent summerish days won`t last long given an
approaching trough that will bring another chance for rain and a few
thunderstorms. Southerly winds will help advect higher dewpoints
into the region Sunday and Monday increasing instability across the
region. With 500-1000 J/kg of CAPE forecast, cannot rule out a
rumble or two Monday afternoon ahead of the approaching trough.
Long-range models refuse to come to an agreement on the timing and
southern extent this trough will take. The EC takes a more aggressive
and slower approach by deepening the low as it moves across NM and
the TX panhandle. The GFS is less aggressive and keeps the main
trough across the Northern Plains with flow becoming more zonal by
Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1145 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
Line of showers are approaching the KS/MO border but the timing of
arrival at the TAF sites have been pushed back slightly again with
this update (~07Z for MCI/MKC, a bit sooner for IXD/STJ). While VFR
conditions are anticipated to prevail throughout much of this
forecast period, could see some drops to MVFR with any heavier
showers that may traverse the terminals. However, this activity is
still expected to generally remain on the lighter side. Winds will be
at their strongest overnight through the morning hours on Thursday,
backing off as the clouds and precip clear in the afternoon hours.
Southerly to southwesterly winds will dominate.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Mitchell
LONG TERM...PMM
AVIATION...lg
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1132 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014
H5 ANALYSIS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS A FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN
ACROSS CANADA AND THE CONUS. CLOSED LOW PRESSURE WAS NOTED OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH A SECOND LOW OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA.
IN BETWEEN...LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER SRN MANITOBA WITH A
TROUGH EXTENDING SWD INTO THE DAKOTAS AND NEBRASKA. SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO LIFT EAST AND WERE IMPACTING FAR SOUTHEASTERN
NEBRASKA AS OF 3 AM CDT. BEHIND THIS AREA OF EXITING
PRECIPITATION...AREAS OF FOG HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWESTERN...CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. VISBYS WERE GENERALLY UNDER ONE MILE WITH QUARTER MILE
VISBYS REPORTED AT NORTH PLATTE AND ORD. VISBYS HAVE BEEN
FLUCTUATING AROUND 1/2SM AT ONEILL AND BROKEN BOW. BASED ON ROAD
CAMS AND SFC VISBYS...DECIDED TO HOIST A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR
THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING...FOR LOCATIONS
ROUGHLY EAST OF A LINE FROM MAYWOOD...TO NORTH PLATTE...TO
ONEILL. TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 AM CDT...RANGED FROM 36 AT OGALLALA
TO 44 AT NORTH PLATTE.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014
FOG IS FINALLY LIFTING...WITH VIS SAT...SFC OBS AND WEB CAMERAS
SHOWING IMPROVING VISIBILITIES/CONDITIONS. THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY
HAS EXPIRED FOR ALL AND SHOULD ONLY SEE AN INCREASE OF SOME HIGH
CLOUDS SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL HELP
PUSH TEMPS INTO THE 70S FOR THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS
TEMPERATURES. FOR THIS MORNING...BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR AND NAM
SOLNS...FOG SHOULD BURN OFF FROM WEST TO EAST BY LATE MORNING.
DENSE FOG SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT BY MID MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE
THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 10 AM CDT. FOR THE REMAINDER OF
TODAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE DAKOTAS AND
NEBRASKA...WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL
ALLOW LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING TO BUILD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND
NORTHERN NEBRASKA TODAY. SPREAD BETWEEN THE MET AND MAV HIGHS FOR
THIS AFTERNOON IS FAIRLY MINIMAL...WITH THE MAV RUNNING 3 TO 10
DEGREES WARMER COMPARED TO THE MET GUIDANCE. FOR THE
FCST...TRENDED HIGHS TOWARD THE COOLER MET GUIDANCE. THIS IS DUE
TO FOG AND EXPECTED CLOUDINESS...ESPECIALLY IN THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CWA THIS MORNING. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 60S IN THE EAST...TO THE UPPER 70S IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST.
FOR TONIGHT...ZONAL FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS...WHILE AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT AS THE TROUGH TRACKS EAST...EFFECTIVELY ENDING ANY
THREAT IN THE CWA FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG TONIGHT. CLEAR SKIES
AND WESTERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW LOWS TO DROP INTO THE 40S
TONIGHT...WITH THE COOLEST READINGS IN THE WEST WHERE DRIER AIR
EXISTS. LIKE HIGHS TODAY...THE MAV GUIDANCE IS WARMER ON THE LOWS
TONIGHT COMPARED TO THE MET GUIDANCE. BASED ON THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS...THE GUIDANCE LOWS HAVE BEEN TOO WARM COMPARED ACTUALITY.
WITH THIS IN MIND AND GIVEN THE DRY CONDS IN PLACE...OPTED FOR
THE COOLER MET GUIDANCE LOWS FOR TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE UNITED STATES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FRIDAY
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A VERY WARM DAY...AS A SURFACE TROUGH
MAKES ITS WAY EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE MORNING. A
FAVORABLE WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WIND BEHIND THE FRONT WILL HELP TO
ENHANCE THE WARMING...AS WARM AIR ALOFT /H850MB TEMPS OF 20 TO
23C/ IS EASILY MIXED TO THE SURFACE. HIGHS APPEAR THEY WILL AT
LEAST TOP OUT IN THE MID 70S...WITH PERHAPS LOWER 80S ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING JUST A BIT OF
COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT HIGHS OF 70 TO 75
DEGREES STILL ARE EXPECTED BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
A CHANGE TO MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK. A LONG
WAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS EAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...WITH AN ASSOCIATED VIGOROUS PACIFIC COLD FRONT
USHERING IN COOLER AIR...AND LOWERING HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE
MID 50S AND LOWER 60S. MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WILL PROGRESS EAST
TO WEST ACROSS THE AREA AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA.
MOISTURE/HUMIDITY IN BOTH THE LOWER AND MID/UPPER LEVELS DOESN/T
LOOK THAT GREAT...SO DESPITE DECENT LIFT AS THE FGEN BAND CROSSES
THE AREA...THE LACK OF MOISTURE WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION...AND
WILL ONLY INCREASE POPS A BIT INTO THE LOW CHANCE CATEGORY AT
THIS TIME.
MODELS DIFFER BEYOND TUESDAY...WITH THE GFS BECOMING MORE
AMPLIFIED AND ALLOWS COLDER CANADIAN AIR TO SPILL SOUTH INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF BUILDS ANOTHER LARGE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH A WARMING TREND. THE
ENSEMBLE MEAN SEEMS TO BE SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN...SO AT THIS POINT
A NEAR CLIMATOLOGY FORECAST SEEMS MOST REASONABLE BEYOND TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GOOD MIXING TODAY
ALONG WITH A WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND TONIGHT SHOULD KEEP
FOG FROM DEVELOPING TONIGHT AS MOISTURE WILL NOT GET TRAPPED IN
THE BL. ALL MOS GUIDANCE AND MODELS SUPPORT ONLY SOME PASSING
HIGH CLOUDS.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MASEK
SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...CLB
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...MASEK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
631 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014
H5 ANALYSIS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS A FAIRLY
ACTIVE PATTERN ACROSS CANADA AND THE CONUS. CLOSED LOW PRESSURE WAS
NOTED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH A SECOND LOW OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA. IN BETWEEN...LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER SRN MANITOBA WITH
A TROUGH EXTENDING SWD INTO THE DAKOTAS AND NEBRASKA. SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO LIFT EAST AND WERE IMPACTING FAR SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA
AS OF 3 AM CDT. BEHIND THIS AREA OF EXITING PRECIPITATION...AREAS OF
FOG HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN...CENTRAL AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. VISBYS WERE GENERALLY
UNDER ONE MILE WITH QUARTER MILE VISBYS REPORTED AT NORTH PLATTE AND
ORD. VISBYS HAVE BEEN FLUCTUATING AROUND 1/2SM AT ONEILL AND BROKEN
BOW. BASED ON ROAD CAMS AND SFC VISBYS...DECIDED TO HOIST A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING...FOR
LOCATIONS ROUGHLY EAST OF A LINE FROM MAYWOOD...TO NORTH PLATTE...TO
ONEILL. TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 AM CDT...RANGED FROM 36 AT OGALLALA TO
44 AT NORTH PLATTE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE MAIN
FORECAST CHALLENGE IS TEMPERATURES. FOR THIS MORNING...BASED ON THE
LATEST HRRR AND NAM SOLNS...FOG SHOULD BURN OFF FROM WEST TO EAST BY
LATE MORNING. DENSE FOG SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT BY MID MORNING AND WILL
CONTINUE THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 10 AM CDT. FOR THE REMAINDER
OF TODAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE DAKOTAS AND
NEBRASKA...WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL
ALLOW LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING TO BUILD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND NORTHERN
NEBRASKA TODAY. SPREAD BETWEEN THE MET AND MAV HIGHS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON IS FAIRLY MINIMAL...WITH THE MAV RUNNING 3 TO 10 DEGREES
WARMER COMPARED TO THE MET GUIDANCE. FOR THE FCST...TRENDED HIGHS
TOWARD THE COOLER MET GUIDANCE. THIS IS DUE TO FOG AND EXPECTED
CLOUDINESS...ESPECIALLY IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA THIS MORNING.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S IN THE EAST...TO THE
UPPER 70S IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST. FOR TONIGHT...ZONAL FLOW WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...WHILE AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. WESTERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS THE TROUGH TRACKS EAST...EFFECTIVELY ENDING ANY
THREAT IN THE CWA FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG TONIGHT. CLEAR SKIES
AND WESTERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW LOWS TO DROP INTO THE 40S
TONIGHT...WITH THE COOLEST READINGS IN THE WEST WHERE DRIER AIR
EXISTS. LIKE HIGHS TODAY...THE MAV GUIDANCE IS WARMER ON THE LOWS
TONIGHT COMPARED TO THE MET GUIDANCE. BASED ON THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS...THE GUIDANCE LOWS HAVE BEEN TOO WARM COMPARED ACTUALITY. WITH
THIS IN MIND AND GIVEN THE DRY CONDS IN PLACE...OPTED FOR THE COOLER
MET GUIDANCE LOWS FOR TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE UNITED STATES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FRIDAY
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A VERY WARM DAY...AS A SURFACE TROUGH
MAKES ITS WAY EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE MORNING. A
FAVORABLE WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WIND BEHIND THE FRONT WILL HELP TO
ENHANCE THE WARMING...AS WARM AIR ALOFT /H850MB TEMPS OF 20 TO
23C/ IS EASILY MIXED TO THE SURFACE. HIGHS APPEAR THEY WILL AT
LEAST TOP OUT IN THE MID 70S...WITH PERHAPS LOWER 80S ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING JUST A BIT OF
COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT HIGHS OF 70 TO 75
DEGREES STILL ARE EXPECTED BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
A CHANGE TO MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK. A LONG
WAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS EAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...WITH AN ASSOCIATED VIGOROUS PACIFIC COLD FRONT
USHERING IN COOLER AIR...AND LOWERING HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE
MID 50S AND LOWER 60S. MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WILL PROGRESS EAST
TO WEST ACROSS THE AREA AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA.
MOISTURE/HUMIDITY IN BOTH THE LOWER AND MID/UPPER LEVELS DOESN/T
LOOK THAT GREAT...SO DESPITE DECENT LIFT AS THE FGEN BAND CROSSES
THE AREA...THE LACK OF MOISTURE WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION...AND
WILL ONLY INCREASE POPS A BIT INTO THE LOW CHANCE CATEGORY AT THIS
TIME.
MODELS DIFFER BEYOND TUESDAY...WITH THE GFS BECOMING MORE
AMPLIFIED AND ALLOWS COLDER CANADIAN AIR TO SPILL SOUTH INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF BUILDS ANOTHER LARGE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH A WARMING TREND. THE
ENSEMBLE MEAN SEEMS TO BE SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN...SO AT THIS POINT
A NEAR CLIMATOLOGY FORECAST SEEMS MOST REASONABLE BEYOND TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014
FOR THE KLBF TERMINAL...EXPECT PATCHY FOG IN THE VICINITY OF THE
KLBF TERMINAL THROUGH 14Z WITH CLEAR SKIES AND UNLIMITED
VISIBILITY THEREAFTER. VISBYS WITH FOG...WILL BE
VARIABLE...RANGING FROM 1/2SM TO 2SM. FOR THE KVTN
TERMINAL...EXPECT CLEAR SKIES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SOME
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS AON 25000 FT AGL POSSIBLE TONIGHT.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ010-
027>029-038-059-071.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...CLB
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...CLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
354 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014
H5 ANALYSIS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS A FAIRLY
ACTIVE PATTERN ACROSS CANADA AND THE CONUS. CLOSED LOW PRESSURE WAS
NOTED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH A SECOND LOW OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA. IN BETWEEN...LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER SRN MANITOBA WITH
A TROUGH EXTENDING SWD INTO THE DAKOTAS AND NEBRASKA. SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO LIFT EAST AND WERE IMPACTING FAR SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA
AS OF 3 AM CDT. BEHIND THIS AREA OF EXITING PRECIPITATION...AREAS OF
FOG HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN...CENTRAL AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. VISBYS WERE GENERALLY
UNDER ONE MILE WITH QUARTER MILE VISBYS REPORTED AT NORTH PLATTE AND
ORD. VISBYS HAVE BEEN FLUCTUATING AROUND 1/2SM AT ONEILL AND BROKEN
BOW. BASED ON ROAD CAMS AND SFC VISBYS...DECIDED TO HOIST A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING...FOR
LOCATIONS ROUGHLY EAST OF A LINE FROM MAYWOOD...TO NORTH PLATTE...TO
ONEILL. TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 AM CDT...RANGED FROM 36 AT OGALLALA TO
44 AT NORTH PLATTE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE MAIN
FORECAST CHALLENGE IS TEMPERATURES. FOR THIS MORNING...BASED ON THE
LATEST HRRR AND NAM SOLNS...FOG SHOULD BURN OFF FROM WEST TO EAST BY
LATE MORNING. DENSE FOG SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT BY MID MORNING AND WILL
CONTINUE THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 10 AM CDT. FOR THE REMAINDER
OF TODAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE DAKOTAS AND
NEBRASKA...WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL
ALLOW LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING TO BUILD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND NORTHERN
NEBRASKA TODAY. SPREAD BETWEEN THE MET AND MAV HIGHS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON IS FAIRLY MINIMAL...WITH THE MAV RUNNING 3 TO 10 DEGREES
WARMER COMPARED TO THE MET GUIDANCE. FOR THE FCST...TRENDED HIGHS
TOWARD THE COOLER MET GUIDANCE. THIS IS DUE TO FOG AND EXPECTED
CLOUDINESS...ESPECIALLY IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA THIS MORNING.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S IN THE EAST...TO THE
UPPER 70S IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST. FOR TONIGHT...ZONAL FLOW WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...WHILE AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. WESTERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS THE TROUGH TRACKS EAST...EFFECTIVELY ENDING ANY
THREAT IN THE CWA FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG TONIGHT. CLEAR SKIES
AND WESTERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW LOWS TO DROP INTO THE 40S
TONIGHT...WITH THE COOLEST READINGS IN THE WEST WHERE DRIER AIR
EXISTS. LIKE HIGHS TODAY...THE MAV GUIDANCE IS WARMER ON THE LOWS
TONIGHT COMPARED TO THE MET GUIDANCE. BASED ON THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS...THE GUIDANCE LOWS HAVE BEEN TOO WARM COMPARED ACTUALITY. WITH
THIS IN MIND AND GIVEN THE DRY CONDS IN PLACE...OPTED FOR THE COOLER
MET GUIDANCE LOWS FOR TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE UNITED STATES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FRIDAY
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A VERY WARM DAY...AS A SURFACE TROUGH
MAKES ITS WAY EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE MORNING. A
FAVORABLE WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WIND BEHIND THE FRONT WILL HELP TO
ENHANCE THE WARMING...AS WARM AIR ALOFT /H850MB TEMPS OF 20 TO
23C/ IS EASILY MIXED TO THE SURFACE. HIGHS APPEAR THEY WILL AT
LEAST TOP OUT IN THE MID 70S...WITH PERHAPS LOWER 80S ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING JUST A BIT OF
COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT HIGHS OF 70 TO 75
DEGREES STILL ARE EXPECTED BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
A CHANGE TO MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK. A LONG
WAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS EAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...WITH AN ASSOCIATED VIGOROUS PACIFIC COLD FRONT
USHERING IN COOLER AIR...AND LOWERING HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE
MID 50S AND LOWER 60S. MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WILL PROGRESS EAST
TO WEST ACROSS THE AREA AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA.
MOISTURE/HUMIDITY IN BOTH THE LOWER AND MID/UPPER LEVELS DOESN/T
LOOK THAT GREAT...SO DESPITE DECENT LIFT AS THE FGEN BAND CROSSES
THE AREA...THE LACK OF MOISTURE WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION...AND
WILL ONLY INCREASE POPS A BIT INTO THE LOW CHANCE CATEGORY AT THIS
TIME.
MODELS DIFFER BEYOND TUESDAY...WITH THE GFS BECOMING MORE
AMPLIFIED AND ALLOWS COLDER CANADIAN AIR TO SPILL SOUTH INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF BUILDS ANOTHER LARGE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH A WARMING TREND. THE
ENSEMBLE MEAN SEEMS TO BE SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN...SO AT THIS POINT
A NEAR CLIMATOLOGY FORECAST SEEMS MOST REASONABLE BEYOND TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014
AREAS OF FOG WERE DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA AND CENTRAL
NEBRASKA EARLY THIS MORNING. VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO
AROUND A HALF MILE AT TIMES ALONG RIVER VALLEYS AND GENERALLY EAST
OF A NORTH PLATTE KLBF TO VALENTINE KVTN. HAVE INCLUDED FOG IN KLBF
TAF SITE ALONG THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY. SOME IFR CEILINGS ARE
POSSIBLE FROM KBBW TO KONL. LIGHT WINDS OVER NIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG
DISSIPATING EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ010-
027>029-038-059-071.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...CLB
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...CLB
PROVIDE MORE DETAIL ON THE MAIN FORECAST DISCUSSION LATER THIS
MORNING...BUT THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT ENOUGH EVIDENCE EXISTED FROM
A COMBINATION OF CURRENT OBS AND SHORT-TERM VISIBILITY MODEL PROGS
FROM THE RAP13/HRRR TO SUPPORT EXPANDING SEVERAL MORE COUNTIES
ONTO THE ORIGINAL DENSE FOG ADVISORY ISSUED BACK AT 950 PM. AS A
RESULT...ONLY 4 COUNTIES IN NORTH CENTRAL KS AND 3 COUNTIES ALONG
HWY 81 IN THE FAR EASTERN NEB CWA REMAIN VOID OF A FORMAL FOG
HEADLINE AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL BE KEEPING OUT A CLOSE EYE FOR
POSSIBLE FURTHER EXPANSION. IN ADDITION...TACKED 1 MORE HOUR ONTO
THE ADVISORY TO RUN IT THROUGH 10 AM...AND IT/S CERTAINLY POSSIBLE
THIS MIGHT NOT BE LONG ENOUGH IN SOME PLACES.
THE BOTTOM LINE...FOLKS WITHIN MUCH OF THE CWA NEED TO BE PREPARED
FOR A FOGGY MORNING COMMUTE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1005 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
KUEX INDICATES THE RAIN HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA FOR
THE MOST PART. THAT SAID...SHOWER ACTIVITY PERSISTS OVER PORTIONS
OF JEWELL AND MITCHELL COUNTIES IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AT THIS
HOUR...BUT THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AS IT ALSO MOVES
EAST OF THE AREA.
BY FAR THE BIGGEST CONCERN IS THE EXPANDING FOG ACROSS THE AREA.
MULTIPLE SITES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...GENERALLY WEST OF
HIGHWAY 281...HAVE DROPPED TO AROUND 1/4SM OR LOWER. RAINFALL FROM
EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH A LIGHT SURFACE WIND AND
PLENTY OF RADIATIONAL COOLING ONCE THE CLOUDS CLEAR...SHOULD
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT AND GIVEN THIS...WENT
AHEAD WITH A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 281. IT REMAINS POSSIBLE THIS
ADVISORY WILL NEED TO BE EXPANDED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...BUT THE CURRENT ADVISORY REFLECTS THE CURRENT DEVELOPMENT
OF FOG.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CUTTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING EAST
AS WELL. A SOLID LINE/AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS
MARCHING ACROSS THE CWA...BUT THE TIME FRAME IS LIMITED FOR
PRECIPITATION AS FLOW REMAINS QUITE PROGRESSIVE...HELPING THE COLD
FRONT TO CONTINUE TO SWEEP EAST. SOME SOLUTIONS...SUCH AS THE NAM
AND HRRR...INDICATE AN AREA OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWERS TO
DEVELOP THIS EVENING BEHIND THE CURRENT BAND/BANDS OF RAIN. THIS
WILL DELAY THE EXIT OF PRECIPITATION IN OUR EAST/SOUTHEAST A
BIT...AND COULD LINGER UNTIL ABOUT MIDNIGHT OR SO IN OUR EAST
SOUTHEAST.
A BIG CONCERN IS FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT. BOTH THE SREF AND RAP
INDICATE THAT AT LEAST SOME OF THE CWA IS IN FOR SOME FOG...AS THE
SKY CLEARS AND WIND BECOMES LIGHT BEHIND THE WAVE/COLD FRONT. WITH
MOST AREAS GETTING A DECENT SHOT OF RAIN TODAY...I HAVE DECIDED TO
HIT THE FOG WORDING QUITE A BIT HARDER...WITH AREAS OF FOG AND
PATCHY DENSE FOG WITH VISIBILITY OF HALF MILE OR LESS. WE WILL NEED
TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE HRRR VISIBILITY LATER THIS EVENING. IF THIS
NUMERICAL MODEL HITS THE FOG FAIRLY HARD AS WELL...WE MAY NEED A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY TONIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING.
BEHIND THE TROUGH/COLD FRONT THURSDAY...AIR BEHIND THE FRONT IS
MILD...BUT I DID LOWER THEM A BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...BASED
ON BCCONSRAW...WHICH I TEND TO LIKE THE DAY AFTER A COLD FRONT
PASSAGE.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
ALOFT: THE MEAN RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE CNTRL USA THRU SUN...
UNTIL THE TROF OVER THE E PAC MOVES ONSHORE. THIS TROF WILL MOVE
THRU HERE MON AND WILL BE THE NEXT POTENTIAL WX MAKER. LOW-AMPLITUDE
WNW FLOW ARRIVE IN ITS WAKE TUE-WED.
SURFACE: LOW PRES WILL BE HEADING E ACROSS CANADA. ITS ASSOCIATED
COOL FRONT WILL SLIP THRU HERE FRI NIGHT WITH NRN PLAINS HIGH PRES
BUILDING IN SAT. MEANWHILE THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING ONSHORE IN
THE W. A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FCST ISSUE HERE /SEE BELOW/. THE COOL FRONT
WILL MOVE THRU SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING WITH COOL HIGH PRES TO
FOLLOW TUE-WED.
THE DAILY DETAILS...
FRI: WARM SECTOR. WONDERFULLY WARM WITHIN THE THERMAL RIDGE. THE
WARMEST DAY OF THIS FCST. NO RECORDS THREATENED...BUT AFTERNOON
TEMPS WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF THEM.
SAT: NOT AS WARM...BUT STILL A SOLID 10F WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR LATE
OCT. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN TEMPS. GEM/EC/GFS/NAM 2M TEMPS ARE
SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER THAN MEX MOS /BY 10F/. AND WITH NO ESSENTIALLY
NO CLOUD COVER EXPECTED PER VERTICAL CROSS SECTIONS...AM NOT SURE
WHY. SO THE DIFF WAS SPLIT INCORPORATING THE PREVIOUS FCST WITH A
BIAS CORRECTION WHICH DID NUDGE TEMPS DOWN A LITTLE. ANYWAY YOU
SLICE IT...LIGHT WINDS AND STILL VERY NICE.
SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING: WE MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO MENTION A
CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS AS THE EC/GFS ARE INDICATING A POTENTIAL
INSTABILITY BURST AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT /K-INDEX 30 AND SHOWALTER
INDEX -1/ AS HIGHER 850 MB DEWPOINTS ADVECT BACK IN FROM THE S.
FOR WHAT IT/S WORTH 06Z/12Z GFS ARE OUTPUTTING SOME DRIBBLES OF
LIGHT QPF.
SUN: WE MAY HAVE PROBLEMS WITH TEMPS. THERE COULD BE A LINGERING
BATCH OF MULTI-LAYERED CLOUD COVER. THE POCKETS OF COOLER 850 MB
TEMPS ARE THE HINT. BELIEVE WE MAY BE TOO WARM. MULTI-MODEL 2M TEMPS
SUGGEST WE MAY BE TOO WARM BY AT LEAST 5F.
SUN NIGHT: COOL FRONTAL PASSAGE AND PROBABLY DRY. SOUNDINGS SHOW A
CAP.
MON: BREEZY AND COOLER IN COLD AIR ADVECTION. POSSIBLY A POST-
FRONTAL SHWR OR TWO. TEMPS RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL.
TUE: EVEN COOLER. TEMPS PROBABLY 5F BELOW NORMAL.
ANOTHER POTENTIAL FCST SNAG TUE IS THE 00Z/12Z EC HAVE A MUCH
SHARPER/SHORTER WAVELENGTH TO THE UPPER TROF MOVING THRU. THEY
DIFFER ON LOCATION BUT THIS SUGGESTS A LOW COULD FORM ON THE FRONT S
AND E OF THE FCST AREA.
WED: DRY WITH TEMP RECOVERY TO NEAR NORMAL POSSIBLE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014
NEEDLESS TO SAY...BY FAR THE PRIMARY AVIATION ISSUE IS THE ONGOING
DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE FOG WITHIN THE AREA RESULTING IN LIFR/VLIFR
VISIBILITY AND CEILING. THERE IS INCREASING EVIDENCE THAT THESE
VERY POOR CONDITIONS MAY BE VERY SLOW TO IMPROVE EVEN WELL PAST
SUNRISE THIS MORNING...AND HAVE AIMED THINGS ON A MORE PESSIMISTIC
NOTE WITH LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH 16Z...AND EVEN
THEN AT LEAST AN MVFR CEILING HANGING TOUGH INTO AT LEAST THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BEYOND MID-
MORNING IS ADMITTEDLY RATHER LOW. SURFACE BREEZES SHOULD NOT BE
MUCH OF AN ISSUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A LIGHT/VARIABLE REGIME
THIS MORNING EVENTUALLY BECOMING MORE ESTABLISHED FROM THE SOUTH
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...BUT AT SUSTAINED SPEEDS LARGELY
BELOW 10KT.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ039>041-
046>049-060>063-072>076-082>086.
KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ005-017.
&&
$$
UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1139 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MOST AREAS ACROSS WESTERN...CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST ZONES THROUGH PERIOD. HOWEVER...AREAS OF FOG WILL
EXPAND IN COVERAGE DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.
LOW CLOUDS ALREADY IN PLACE ALONG THE EXTREME EASTERN BORDER
INCLUDING KCVN AND WILL EXPAND TO THE NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH BUT TAFS CURRENTLY CARRY
TEMPO MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES STARTING 09Z AT KROW AND 11Z AT
KTCC. LOCAL FOG OR FREEZING FOG POSSIBLE NORTH CENTRAL VALLEY
LOCATIONS INCLUDING KAXX...THE ESTANCIA VALLEY INCLUDING KCQC...
AND VALLEY LOCATIONS WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS. LOW CLOUDS TO
CLEAR BY AROUND 17Z WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND VFR ALL ZONES THEREAFTER.
05
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...315 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OVER NEW
MEXICO OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...BRINGING SPECTACULAR WEATHER
TO THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH A FEW NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COOLER
BY SUNDAY AND WINDS WILL TREND STRONGER AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST OF
THE STATE. COOLER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY
AS A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RACES THROUGH THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
THE LATEST RADAR SHOWS JUST A COUPLE VERY LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING
SOUTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN TO THE PLAINS. 20Z LAPS DATA
INDICATES ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT A FEW STORMS HOWEVER A
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ALOFT IS ACTING TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION BELOW
550MB. THE 18Z NAM12 AND HRRR INDICATE THE BULK OF ANY STORMS WILL
FOCUS OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS AND AROUND SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTY.
OTHERWISE...WHAT FEW CLOUDS EXIST ACROSS CENTRAL/WESTERN NM WILL
DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE EAST WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS HOLDING STRONG.
WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE BENEATH A STRENGTHENING RIDGE ALOFT WILL
FAVOR AREAS OF FOG WITHIN THE PECOS AND ESTANCIA VALLEYS...AS WELL
AS ALONG THE CAPROCK.
THURSDAY WILL FEATURE WARMING TEMPERATURES AS 700MB VALUES RISE
TO NEAR +10C. THIS IS NEAR THE 95TH PERCENTILE FOR LATE OCTOBER.
THE H5 RIDGE THEN CRESTS OVER NM AT 591DM AND DELIVERS A REALLY
SPECTACULAR FRIDAY. 700MB TEMPS PEAK OUT NEAR +12C WHICH IS +2
STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE CLIMO. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR RECORD ACROSS THE
EAST WITH LOTS OF MID 80S. ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS TO STAY
IN PLACE AND LEE TROUGHING REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK SO NOT REALLY
EXPECTING RECORDS. BY SATURDAY THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND WINDS
BEGIN INCREASING IN THE EAST. HIGHS CERTAINLY MAY NEAR 90F IN THE
AREA AROUND TUCUMCARI. ELSEWHERE...IT WILL REMAIN SUNNY AND WARM.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT FROM MODELS WHICH
INDICATES FAST ZONAL FLOW OVER NM. THIS WILL FAVOR CONTINUED WARM
TEMPS OVER THE EAST WITH KATABATIC FLOW. SOME MOUNTAIN WAVE WIND
DRIVEN CIRCULATION MAY CREATE LOCALLY STRONG WINDS ON THE EAST
SLOPES BOTH DAYS. 700MB COLD ADVECTION IN THE WEST WILL COOL HIGHS
DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES. THE DGEX AND ECMWF DO SHOW ENOUGH MID/UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTS FOR A COUPLE HIGH TERRAIN
SHOWERS.
GUYER
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WE WILL BEGIN A DRYING TREND LATE TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOOK
FOR WARMING DAYTIME HIGHS...UP AND DOWN VENTILATION RATES...AND A
DOWNTREND IN HUMIDITY VALUES WITH BREEZY WESTERLIES.
VERY SPOTTY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ALONG THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN BUT WILL DIMINISH DOWNSLOPE TOWARD THE EASTERN PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THE EARLY EVENING. VERY LITTLE WETTING
RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM SPOTTY STORMS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND WILL SHIFT EASTWARD BY FRIDAY
BRINGING US WARMER DAYTIME HIGHS 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...
FOLLOWING A DOWNTREND IN HUMIDITY VALUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
VENTILATION WILL BE POOR ON FRIDAY BUT RATES LOOK TO IMPROVE OVER
THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS EAST. HAINES VALUES WILL
ALSO TREND UPWARD...WITH 5S EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN.
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY AND MONDAY ALONG AND
EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN BECAUSE OF AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES. COULD SEE MARGINALLY
CRITICAL WIND SPEEDS WEST CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY CENTRAL HIGHLANDS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOON...HUMIDITIES LOOK TO STAY A LITTLE ABOVE
CRITICAL CRITERIA AT THIS TIME. A COOLING TREND OF HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH THE STATE.
MODELS DIFFER LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY ABOUT WETTING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. GFS IS DRIER WITH ZONAL FLOW OVER THE STATE WHILE ECMWF IS
BULLISH ON PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST AS A REMAINING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXITS THE STATE.
32/43
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
336 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL BRING
PERIODS OF RAIN AND SHOWERS TO THE REGION TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FROM THE ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD. SHOWERS TAPER
OFF ON FRIDAY...BUT RETURN BY LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH THE PASSAGE OF ADDITIONAL ENERGY. DRIER AND MILDER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 136 PM EDT THURSDAY...FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON FORECAST
REFRESH, DID A FEW MINOR TWEAKS BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. FIRST ON
THE PRECIPITATION FRONT, RADAR SHOWING A PRETTY SOLID AREA OF RAIN
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF VERMONT, AND LOOKING UPSTREAM
IT APPEARS THIS RAIN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
IF NOT MUCH OF THE EVENING. DID FOLLOW THE HRRR MODEL GUIDANCE
WHICH SUGGESTS THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING, WITH A
BRIEF LULL LATE EVENING, BEFORE ANOTHER SOLID BATCH OF RAIN COMES
IN JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. STILL HASN`T BEEN MUCH OUT TOWARD THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY, AND STILL QUESTIONABLE HOW MUCH OF THE RAIN WILL
ACTUALLY GET THERE WITH DRIER LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW IN PLACE.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE NEXT 6 HOURS SHOULD EASILY AVERAGE 1/4"
ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT, IF NOT A BIT MORE. SOME MESONET IN THE
HEAVIER RAIN HAVE REPORTED UP TO 1/3" IN AN HOUR. STILL, TOTALS
WON`T BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO PROBLEMS.
MADE SOME TWEAKS ALSO TO TEMPERATURES BASED ON CURRENT
TEMPERATURES (WHICH SHOULD BE PRETTY MUCH IT FOR HIGHS). FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA IT WILL BE A GREAT DAY TO STAY INDOORS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT THURSDAY...BY TONIGHT TODAY`S SLUG OF MOISTURE
GRADUALLY LOSES ITS IMPETUS AS PARENT UPPER DYNAMICS PULL STEADILY
ENE AND AWAY FROM THE REGION. STILL LOOKING AT DAMP/WET CONDS FROM
THE ERN SLOPES OF THE DACKS EAST INTO VT...BUT PCPN CHARACTER
SHOULD TREND LIGHTER AND LESSEN IN OVERALL COVERAGE AS THE NIGHT
WEARS ON. OUTSIDE SOME EVENING SHOWERS...SLV SHOULD TREND MAINLY
DRY FROM MIDNIGHT ONWARD. LOWS SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING...UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S UNDER CONTINUED CLOUDY/NORTHERLY FLOW AND NEUTRAL
ADVECTIVE REGIME.
BY FRIDAY...SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION. HIGHEST COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS NC/NE VT WHERE SOME ADDL LIGHT TOTALS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. TRENDING MAINLY DRY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WESTWARD.
WITH LINGERING CLOUDS AND CONTINUED NORTHERLY FLOW DID OPT TO LEAN
ON THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE IN REGARD TO TEMPS...HOLDING MAX
VALUES IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN MOST SPOTS...PERHAPS MID 50S
IN THE SLV WHERE SOME AFTERNOON PARTIAL SUN WILL BE POSSIBLE.
AFOREMENTIONED WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS PESKY CLOUDS SLOWLY THIN OVER TIME. LINGERING
SHOWERS END NORTHEAST WITH LOW TEMPS A TAD COOLER...MID 30S TO LOWER
40S.
ON SATURDAY MODELS REMAIN IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT SUGGESTING
ADDITIONAL AND RATHER ROBUST NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DROP
QUICKLY SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH A
RENEWED THREAT OF SHOWERS. GIVEN TIMING OF THE FEATURE HIGHEST
POPS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH
FLOW TURNING SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AND A MODESTLY MIXED
PBL...HIGHS WILL BE SOMEWHAT WARMER FOR MOST SPOTS...MAINLY 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 336 PM EDT THURSDAY...COLDER AIR TO WORK INTO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY...SO EXPECTING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS AND
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS
AND GREEN MOUNTAINS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH MAINLY FAIR AND DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED. EXPECTING FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE FROM
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT REAMINS OVER THE REGION. ON WEDNESDAY...A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS TO THE REGION. WILL KEEP IN SOME LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
THURSDAY AS COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF CAPE
COD THROUGH THE PERIOD...BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN AND IFR/MVFR
CEILINGS TO THE REGION THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY. NORTHERLY SURFACE WIND
GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD...MAINLY IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY THROUGH MOST OF
THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
18Z FRIDAY-00Z SATURDAY...MVFR/VFR CEILINGS AS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA.
00Z SATURDAY-18Z SATURDAY...VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.
18Z SATURDAY-00Z MONDAY...VFR TRENDING TO AREAS OF MVFR IN VALLEY
RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT
BRINGS COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION.
00Z MONDAY-00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 405 AM EDT THURSDAY...LATEST ANALYSIS SUGGESTS PCPN TOTALS
FROM CURRENT SYSTEM WILL BE LIGHTER THAN PRIOR INDICATIONS SO NO
HYDROLOGICAL CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED FOR AREA RIVERS. 3-DAY TOTALS
ENDING FRIDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 0.75 TO 1.5
INCHES FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
TOTALS TO NEAR 2 INCHES POSSIBLE ALONG EASTWARD FACING SLOPES OF
THE GREEN MTNS. FURTHER WEST TOTALS SHOULD AVERAGE FROM 0.25 TO
0.75 INCHES IN THE ADIRONDACKS...AND LESS THAN 0.25 INCHES IN THE
SLV.
&&
.MARINE...
AS OF 405 AM EDT THURSDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE OPEN LAKE WATERS INTO THIS EVENING
BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THUS A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT WITH THIS PACKAGE. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL CREATE CHOPPY TO LOCALLY ROUGH WATERS TODAY WITH
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS AVERAGING IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE.
CONVERGENCE OF WINDS AND WAVES DUE TO TOPOGRAPHICAL EFFECTS WILL
MAKE CONDITIONS ROUGHER ON THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO NEAR GALE FORCE POSSIBLE. CAUTION IS THUS
ADVISED TO THOSE PLANNING TO OPERATE SMALL CRAFT ON THE LAKE TODAY
INTO THIS EVENING.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH
HYDROLOGY...JMG
MARINE...JMG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
211 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL BRING
PERIODS OF RAIN AND SHOWERS TO THE REGION TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FROM THE ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD. SHOWERS TAPER
OFF ON FRIDAY...BUT RETURN BY LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH THE PASSAGE OF ADDITIONAL ENERGY. DRIER AND MILDER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 136 PM EDT THURSDAY...FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON FORECAST
REFRESH, DID A FEW MINOR TWEAKS BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. FIRST ON
THE PRECIPITATION FRONT, RADAR SHOWING A PRETTY SOLID AREA OF RAIN
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF VERMONT, AND LOOKING UPSTREAM
IT APPEARS THIS RAIN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
IF NOT MUCH OF THE EVENING. DID FOLLOW THE HRRR MODEL GUIDANCE
WHICH SUGGESTS THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING, WITH A
BRIEF LULL LATE EVENING, BEFORE ANOTHER SOLID BATCH OF RAIN COMES
IN JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. STILL HASN`T BEEN MUCH OUT TOWARD THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY, AND STILL QUESTIONABLE HOW MUCH OF THE RAIN WILL
ACTUALLY GET THERE WITH DRIER LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW IN PLACE.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE NEXT 6 HOURS SHOULD EASILY AVERAGE 1/4"
ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT, IF NOT A BIT MORE. SOME MESONET IN THE
HEAVIER RAIN HAVE REPORTED UP TO 1/3" IN AN HOUR. STILL, TOTALS
WON`T BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO PROBLEMS.
MADE SOME TWEAKS ALSO TO TEMPERATURES BASED ON CURRENT
TEMPERATURES (WHICH SHOULD BE PRETTY MUCH IT FOR HIGHS). FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA IT WILL BE A GREAT DAY TO STAY INDOORS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT THURSDAY...BY TONIGHT TODAY`S SLUG OF MOISTURE
GRADUALLY LOSES ITS IMPETUS AS PARENT UPPER DYNAMICS PULL STEADILY
ENE AND AWAY FROM THE REGION. STILL LOOKING AT DAMP/WET CONDS FROM
THE ERN SLOPES OF THE DACKS EAST INTO VT...BUT PCPN CHARACTER
SHOULD TREND LIGHTER AND LESSEN IN OVERALL COVERAGE AS THE NIGHT
WEARS ON. OUTSIDE SOME EVENING SHOWERS...SLV SHOULD TREND MAINLY
DRY FROM MIDNIGHT ONWARD. LOWS SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING...UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S UNDER CONTINUED CLOUDY/NORTHERLY FLOW AND NEUTRAL
ADVECTIVE REGIME.
BY FRIDAY...SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION. HIGHEST COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS NC/NE VT WHERE SOME ADDL LIGHT TOTALS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. TRENDING MAINLY DRY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WESTWARD.
WITH LINGERING CLOUDS AND CONTINUED NORTHERLY FLOW DID OPT TO LEAN
ON THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE IN REGARD TO TEMPS...HOLDING MAX
VALUES IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN MOST SPOTS...PERHAPS MID 50S
IN THE SLV WHERE SOME AFTERNOON PARTIAL SUN WILL BE POSSIBLE.
AFOREMENTIONED WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS PESKY CLOUDS SLOWLY THIN OVER TIME. LINGERING
SHOWERS END NORTHEAST WITH LOW TEMPS A TAD COOLER...MID 30S TO LOWER
40S.
ON SATURDAY MODELS REMAIN IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT SUGGESTING
ADDITIONAL AND RATHER ROBUST NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DROP
QUICKLY SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH A
RENEWED THREAT OF SHOWERS. GIVEN TIMING OF THE FEATURE HIGHEST
POPS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH
FLOW TURNING SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AND A MODESTLY MIXED
PBL...HIGHS WILL BE SOMEWHAT WARMER FOR MOST SPOTS...MAINLY 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 354 AM EDT THURSDAY...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE
NORTH COUNTRY FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS A CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL LOW TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM JAMES BAY INTO THE NORTHEAST
SATURDAY NIGHT. POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY OUT AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL DEVELOP SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT...TRANSITIONING TO VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOW/MID LEVEL FLOWING TURNING TO
THE NORTHWEST AND STRONG CAA MOVING IN POST FROPA. TEMPS AT THE
SUMMITS AREN`T INCREDIBLY COLD...SO LIKELY ONLY GOING TO SEE A
DUSTING TO MAYBE A COUPLE OF INCHES UP THERE.
WE`LL STILL BE UNDER MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW TO BEGIN THE WORK
WEEK MONDAY SO EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS TO BE AROUND AND
POSSIBLY A FEW ISOLATED MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. A BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR A
NICE WARMING TREND AS WE GO INTO MID-WEEK. WHILE HIGHS MONDAY WILL
BE VERY SEASONAL IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S...WE`LL SEE TEMPS
RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY OUR NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES
THOUGH AT THIS TIME MODELS PREDICT THE LOW CENTER PASSING WELL TO
OUR NORTH WITH ONLY A WEAK RIBBON OF MOISTURE ALONG THE TRAILING
COLD FRONT TRACKING INTO THE NORTHEAST. DOESN`T REALLY LOOK ALL
THAT THREATENING FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN RIGHT NOW...BUT STRONG
CAA BEHIND TO FRONT WILL BRING OUR TEMPS RIGHT BACK BELOW NORMAL
LEVELS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF CAPE
COD THROUGH THE PERIOD...BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN AND IFR/MVFR
CEILINGS TO THE REGION THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY. NORTHERLY SURFACE WIND
GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD...MAINLY IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY THROUGH MOST OF
THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
18Z FRIDAY-00Z SATURDAY...MVFR/VFR CEILINGS AS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA.
00Z SATURDAY-18Z SATURDAY...VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.
18Z SATURDAY-00Z MONDAY...VFR TRENDING TO AREAS OF MVFR IN VALLEY
RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT
BRINGS COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION.
00Z MONDAY-00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 405 AM EDT THURSDAY...LATEST ANALYSIS SUGGESTS PCPN TOTALS
FROM CURRENT SYSTEM WILL BE LIGHTER THAN PRIOR INDICATIONS SO NO
HYDROLOGICAL CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED FOR AREA RIVERS. 3-DAY TOTALS
ENDING FRIDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 0.75 TO 1.5
INCHES FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
TOTALS TO NEAR 2 INCHES POSSIBLE ALONG EASTWARD FACING SLOPES OF
THE GREEN MTNS. FURTHER WEST TOTALS SHOULD AVERAGE FROM 0.25 TO
0.75 INCHES IN THE ADIRONDACKS...AND LESS THAN 0.25 INCHES IN THE
SLV.
&&
.MARINE...
AS OF 405 AM EDT THURSDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE OPEN LAKE WATERS INTO THIS EVENING
BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THUS A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT WITH THIS PACKAGE. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL CREATE CHOPPY TO LOCALLY ROUGH WATERS TODAY WITH
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS AVERAGING IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE.
CONVERGENCE OF WINDS AND WAVES DUE TO TOPOGRAPHICAL EFFECTS WILL
MAKE CONDITIONS ROUGHER ON THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO NEAR GALE FORCE POSSIBLE. CAUTION IS THUS
ADVISED TO THOSE PLANNING TO OPERATE SMALL CRAFT ON THE LAKE TODAY
INTO THIS EVENING.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...WGH
HYDROLOGY...JMG
MARINE...JMG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
143 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL BRING
PERIODS OF RAIN AND SHOWERS TO THE REGION TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FROM THE ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD. SHOWERS TAPER
OFF ON FRIDAY...BUT RETURN BY LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH THE PASSAGE OF ADDITIONAL ENERGY. DRIER AND MILDER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 136 PM EDT THURSDAY...FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON FORECAST
REFRESH, DID A FEW MINOR TWEAKS BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. FIRST ON
THE PRECIPITATION FRONT, RADAR SHOWING A PRETTY SOLID AREA OF RAIN
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF VERMONT, AND LOOKING UPSTREAM
IT APPEARS THIS RAIN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
IF NOT MUCH OF THE EVENING. DID FOLLOW THE HRRR MODEL GUIDANCE
WHICH SUGGESTS THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING, WITH A
BRIEF LULL LATE EVENING, BEFORE ANOTHER SOLID BATCH OF RAIN COMES
IN JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. STILL HASN`T BEEN MUCH OUT TOWARD THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY, AND STILL QUESTIONABLE HOW MUCH OF THE RAIN WILL
ACTUALLY GET THERE WITH DRIER LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW IN PLACE.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE NEXT 6 HOURS SHOULD EASILY AVERAGE 1/4"
ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT, IF NOT A BIT MORE. SOME MESONET IN THE
HEAVIER RAIN HAVE REPORTED UP TO 1/3" IN AN HOUR. STILL, TOTALS
WON`T BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO PROBLEMS.
MADE SOME TWEAKS ALSO TO TEMPERATURES BASED ON CURRENT
TEMPERATURES (WHICH SHOULD BE PRETTY MUCH IT FOR HIGHS). FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA IT WILL BE A GREAT DAY TO STAY INDOORS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT THURSDAY...BY TONIGHT TODAY`S SLUG OF MOISTURE
GRADUALLY LOSES ITS IMPETUS AS PARENT UPPER DYNAMICS PULL STEADILY
ENE AND AWAY FROM THE REGION. STILL LOOKING AT DAMP/WET CONDS FROM
THE ERN SLOPES OF THE DACKS EAST INTO VT...BUT PCPN CHARACTER
SHOULD TREND LIGHTER AND LESSEN IN OVERALL COVERAGE AS THE NIGHT
WEARS ON. OUTSIDE SOME EVENING SHOWERS...SLV SHOULD TREND MAINLY
DRY FROM MIDNIGHT ONWARD. LOWS SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING...UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S UNDER CONTINUED CLOUDY/NORTHERLY FLOW AND NEUTRAL
ADVECTIVE REGIME.
BY FRIDAY...SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION. HIGHEST COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS NC/NE VT WHERE SOME ADDL LIGHT TOTALS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. TRENDING MAINLY DRY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WESTWARD.
WITH LINGERING CLOUDS AND CONTINUED NORTHERLY FLOW DID OPT TO LEAN
ON THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE IN REGARD TO TEMPS...HOLDING MAX
VALUES IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN MOST SPOTS...PERHAPS MID 50S
IN THE SLV WHERE SOME AFTERNOON PARTIAL SUN WILL BE POSSIBLE.
AFOREMENTIONED WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS PESKY CLOUDS SLOWLY THIN OVER TIME. LINGERING
SHOWERS END NORTHEAST WITH LOW TEMPS A TAD COOLER...MID 30S TO LOWER
40S.
ON SATURDAY MODELS REMAIN IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT SUGGESTING
ADDITIONAL AND RATHER ROBUST NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DROP
QUICKLY SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH A
RENEWED THREAT OF SHOWERS. GIVEN TIMING OF THE FEATURE HIGHEST
POPS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH
FLOW TURNING SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AND A MODESTLY MIXED
PBL...HIGHS WILL BE SOMEWHAT WARMER FOR MOST SPOTS...MAINLY 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 354 AM EDT THURSDAY...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE
NORTH COUNTRY FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS A CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL LOW TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM JAMES BAY INTO THE NORTHEAST
SATURDAY NIGHT. POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY OUT AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL DEVELOP SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT...TRANSITIONING TO VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOW/MID LEVEL FLOWING TURNING TO
THE NORTHWEST AND STRONG CAA MOVING IN POST FROPA. TEMPS AT THE
SUMMITS AREN`T INCREDIBLY COLD...SO LIKELY ONLY GOING TO SEE A
DUSTING TO MAYBE A COUPLE OF INCHES UP THERE.
WE`LL STILL BE UNDER MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW TO BEGIN THE WORK
WEEK MONDAY SO EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS TO BE AROUND AND
POSSIBLY A FEW ISOLATED MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. A BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR A
NICE WARMING TREND AS WE GO INTO MID-WEEK. WHILE HIGHS MONDAY WILL
BE VERY SEASONAL IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S...WE`LL SEE TEMPS
RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY OUR NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES
THOUGH AT THIS TIME MODELS PREDICT THE LOW CENTER PASSING WELL TO
OUR NORTH WITH ONLY A WEAK RIBBON OF MOISTURE ALONG THE TRAILING
COLD FRONT TRACKING INTO THE NORTHEAST. DOESN`T REALLY LOOK ALL
THAT THREATENING FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN RIGHT NOW...BUT STRONG
CAA BEHIND TO FRONT WILL BRING OUR TEMPS RIGHT BACK BELOW NORMAL
LEVELS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
WILL BRING DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO THE AREA WITH
PREVAILING MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE PERIOD. RAIN MOVES IN MID-
MORNING WITH SOME MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE...THOUGH UPSTREAM OBS ONLY
SUPPORT VFR VSBY. EXCEPTION ON THE RAIN WILL BE KMSS WHICH WILL
LIKELY REMAIN DRY...BUT WILL STILL SEE MVFR CIGS MOVE IN BY MID-
MORNING. WINDS WILL MAINLY BE NORTHERLY AT 8-12KTS THRU THE PERIOD
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25KTS AT TIMES.
OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
12Z THU - 12Z FRI...MVFR/IFR LIKELY AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS SLOWLY
NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.
12Z FRI - 12Z SAT...MVFR TRENDING TO VFR UNDER BRIEF HIGH
PRESSURE.
12Z SAT - 00Z TUE...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR IN VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AS COLD LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 405 AM EDT THURSDAY...LATEST ANALYSIS SUGGESTS PCPN TOTALS
FROM CURRENT SYSTEM WILL BE LIGHTER THAN PRIOR INDICATIONS SO NO
HYDROLOGICAL CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED FOR AREA RIVERS. 3-DAY TOTALS
ENDING FRIDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 0.75 TO 1.5
INCHES FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
TOTALS TO NEAR 2 INCHES POSSIBLE ALONG EASTWARD FACING SLOPES OF
THE GREEN MTNS. FURTHER WEST TOTALS SHOULD AVERAGE FROM 0.25 TO
0.75 INCHES IN THE ADIRONDACKS...AND LESS THAN 0.25 INCHES IN THE
SLV.
&&
.MARINE...
AS OF 405 AM EDT THURSDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE OPEN LAKE WATERS INTO THIS EVENING
BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THUS A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT WITH THIS PACKAGE. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL CREATE CHOPPY TO LOCALLY ROUGH WATERS TODAY WITH
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS AVERAGING IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE.
CONVERGENCE OF WINDS AND WAVES DUE TO TOPOGRAPHICAL EFFECTS WILL
MAKE CONDITIONS ROUGHER ON THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO NEAR GALE FORCE POSSIBLE. CAUTION IS THUS
ADVISED TO THOSE PLANNING TO OPERATE SMALL CRAFT ON THE LAKE TODAY
INTO THIS EVENING.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
HYDROLOGY...JMG
MARINE...JMG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
405 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014
EARLIER FOG/STRATUS GONE BY NOON ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA...AND WIDESPREAD SUNSHINE HAS BEEN THE RULE OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...BAND OF CIRRUS WORKING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE RUSHMORE STATE...AND REMAINS TO BE SEEN IF THAT WILL BE
THICK ENOUGH IN SPOTS TO IMPAIR VIEWING OF THE PARTIAL SOLAR ECLIPSE
LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA. VERY DRY AIR HAS MIXED
DOWN FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS...BUT AREAS TO THE SOUTH TOWARD SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA YET HAVE A BIT OF STRATUS TO REMOVE...AND
TRAJECTORY OF HIGHER LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS TO DEAL WITH. INVERSION
TONIGHT WILL BE IN PLACE AS TEMPS CONTINUE TO WARM ALOFT...AND
SHOULD PROVIDE AN EFFECTIVE CONDUIT TO TRANSPORT THIS
MOISTURE NORTHWARD. LIKELY WILL SEE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG AGAIN TONIGHT. NAM AND RAP ARE QUITE INDICATIVE OF THE
POTENTIAL...WITH SREF PROBABILITIES GARNERING ATTENTION IN THE 09Z-
12Z WINDOW. HOWEVER...A BIT MORE WIND...DAY OF DRYING...AND SOME
HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDINESS GIVES THIS A BIT MORE STRATUS OVER FOG LOOK
FOR THE LATTER OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING. TRAJECTORY OF FLOW WOULD
FAVOR MAINLY EAST/SOUTHEAST HALF TO TWO THIRDS OF CWA. WIND SHIFT
MOVES INTO THE JAMES VALLEY EARLY MORNING...AND THIS INCREASE IN
WESTERLY COMPONENT WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD ENOUGH TO HELP ERODE LOWER
CLOUDS FAIRLY EFFECTIVELY...IF THE WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW OFF SURFACE
IS NOT ENOUGH TO SPEED ALONG ON ITS OWN.
AFTER REMOVAL OF THE LOWER CLOUDS/FOG...FRIDAY WILL SHAPE UP TO BE A
VERY NICE FALL DAY. WINDS PICKING UP A WESTERLY COMPONENT WILL FAVOR
MIXING...AND HAVE ASSUMED THAT THE LACK OF GREATER MIXING DEPTH IN
THE MODELS IS IN ERROR.
WILL HAVE AN INCREASE IN HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS AS STRONG WAVE MOVES
NORTH OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY...BUT SHOULD STILL MAINTAIN A
MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY BALANCE TO THE DAY. THIS COULD IMPACT
WARMING BY A COUPLE DEGREES...BUT OVERALL WILL SEE 70S ACROSS THE
AREA...AND WILL SEE IF ENOUGH MIXING IN PLAY TO BRING SOME READINGS
AROUND 80 WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014
PLEASANT WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
FILTER INTO THE REGION WILL COOLER UPPER LEVEL FLOW IN PLACE. WHILE
WINDS ON SATURDAY WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS...WINDS
TURN SOUTHEASTERLY AND BECOME BREEZY ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS BOTH
DAYS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70.
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SUNDAY NIGHT
AND NOSES INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON MONDAY.
INTIAL SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD MAINLY
RESULT IN SOME INCREASED CLOUDS...BUT OTHERWISE REMAIN DRY FOR THE
FORECAST AREA WITH VERY DRY LOW LEVELS. MAIN WAVE ARRIVES MONDAY
NIGHT. MODEL TIMING IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR THE ONSET...BUT THE
LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM IS LESS CERTAIN. THE GFS IN
PARTICULAR DEVELOPS A MUCH STRONGER NEGATIVELY TILTED WAVE THAT
BECOMES CUT OFF AND LIFTS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. WITH A SLOWER
AND STRONGER SOLUTION...THE GFS HOLDS ONTO PRECIPITATION IN OUR
FORECAST AREA LONGEST. THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN LOOK TO BE MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT...BUT LEFT SOME ISOLATED MENTION MAINLY ACROSS OUR
EASTERN TWO THIRDS ON TUESDAY WITH THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE TIMING.
WITH CLOUDS..RAIN SHOWERS AND COOLER AIR ALOFT
ARRIVING...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AS WELL. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED
IN 50S ON TUESDAY WITH A VERY BRISK NORTHWEST WIND.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE DRY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
KEEPING TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 104 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014
EARLIER WIDESPREAD VLIFR CONDITIONS EAST OF THE JAMES VALLEY HAVE
NOW ALL DISSIPATED...BUT ODDS ARE TILTING IN THE FAVOR OF
REDEVELOPMENT OF LIFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT IN MUCH THE SAME AREA.
WITH INVERSION REMAINING STRONG OVERNIGHT...SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
WILL KEEP MOISTURE INCREASING BENEATH THIS FEATURE FOR KFSD/KSUX
AREAS. LATTER HALF NIGHT LIKELY TO SEE STRATUS AREA EXPAND IN WEAK
LOW LEVEL WIND MAX REGION. LOOKS TO BE MORE OF A STRATUS EVENT
OVER A DENSE FOG EVENT...SO GRADUALLY WORK TOWARD AN MVFR VISIBILITY
LEADING INTO A LONGER PERIOD OF LIFR CEILINGS/IFR VISIBILITY.
ANOTHER WIND SHIFT TO MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT WILL PUSH ACROSS
THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE MORNING...AND FAIRLY SHALLOW
THERMODYNAMIC STRUCTURE SHOULD HELP TO FLUSH OUT A BIT MORE
EFFICIENTLY THE FOLLOWING MORNING.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CHAPMAN
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CHAPMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
310 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014
.SHORT TERM...
UPPER RIDGING GRADUALLY SPREADING IN FROM OUR WEST WILL MAINTAIN
QUIET WEATHER OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. STILL CONTENDING WITH DAMP
SURFACE CONDITIONS...HOWEVER...WHICH WILL CREATE SOME FOG
OPPORTUNITY TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF WINDOW
FOR SHALLOW RADIATION FOG DEVELOPMENT FROM NORTH-CENTRAL INTO
CENTRAL AREAS LATER THIS EVENING INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE WEAK BUT STILL SLIGHTLY CONVERGENT. HRRR
SOLUTIONS THE PAST FEW HOURS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT SHOWING SOME
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT FOG AT LEAST...THOUGH WE DO NOT SEE INDICATIONS
IN THE LATEST RAP OR WRF/NAM RUNS. STILL...HRRR HAS DONE A VERY GOOD
JOB TODAY TO THIS POINT AND WE WILL FOLLOW ITS LEAD. LATER IN THE
NIGHT THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD VEER ACROSS NORTH-NORTHWESTERN AREAS
WITH DIVERGENT TREND AND LESS RISK OF FOG AT THAT TIME. BETTER FOG
SIGNAL LATER TONIGHT RUNS FROM THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE
ROLLING PLAINS...AND MAINLY THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS WHERE WE
HAVE INDICATED AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. THIS WOULD HOLD BIGGEST RISK FOR SIGNIFICANT RESTRICTIONS
AS WELL AND HAVE INDICATED SUCH IN THE HAZARDOUS OUTLOOK. OTHERWISE
STRATUS BY MID TO LATE MORNING FRIDAY SHOULD BE GONE OR DISSOLVING
RAPIDLY AND A WARM DAY WILL LEAD INTO THE WEEKEND WITH LITTLE
DISAGREEMENT FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS. RMCQUEEN
&&
.LONG TERM...
UPPER RIDGING WILL KICK OFF THE EXTENDED AND PROVIDE A PERIOD OF
WARM AND DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RUN 10-15 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 80S THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
FEW LOWER 90S COULD EVEN MIX IN OFF THE CAPROCK. BREEZY SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL MATERIALIZE BY LATE WEEKEND AS A LARGE
WESTERN TROUGH BEGINS TO MAKE EASTWARD PROGRESS AND SURFACE
TROUGHING DEEPENS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. MONDAY WILL BRING
ANOTHER WARM DAY AS BREEZY DOWNSLOPING WINDS CONTINUE...BUT THE
APPROACHING MEAN WESTERN TROUGH WILL PROVIDE MODEST DEEP LAYER
COOLING WHICH SHOULD KNOCK SEVERAL DEGREES OFF THE HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON THE CAPROCK. AN INITIAL TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST TO PASS MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIKELY TRACKING OUT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SHORTWAVE...BUT IT CURRENTLY
APPEARS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE TOO LIMITED TO SUPPORT ANY
MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION CHANCES...THOUGH A ROGUE SPRINKLE OR VIRGA
SHOWER MAY BE POSSIBLE. THE ONE EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN ZONES...WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE MAY BE CLOSER BY...BUT EVEN
HERE THE PROSPECTS FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION DOES NOT LOOK VERY
GOOD AND WE HAVE MAINTAINED POPS NEAR 10 PERCENT.
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW THE INITIAL TROUGH PASSAGE AND USHER IN
AN AIR MASS OF PACIFIC ORIGIN MONDAY NIGHT. MORE SEASONABLE LATE
OCTOBER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
SETTING THE STAGE FOR MORE PLEASANT FALL WEATHER WITH MILD DAYS AND
COOL NIGHTS. ANOTHER PASSING UPPER LEVEL WAVE COULD SUPPLY A SECOND
WEAK COLD FRONT BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY...KEEPING
TEMPERATURES NEAR LATE OCTOBER NORMALS. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE
MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 51 84 50 84 50 / 0 0 0 0 0
TULIA 53 85 52 86 53 / 0 0 0 0 0
PLAINVIEW 54 84 53 85 53 / 0 0 0 0 0
LEVELLAND 55 84 51 84 51 / 0 0 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 55 84 55 85 55 / 0 0 0 0 0
DENVER CITY 56 83 52 83 52 / 0 0 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 56 84 52 83 53 / 0 0 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 59 89 57 92 56 / 0 0 0 0 0
SPUR 58 86 55 86 54 / 0 0 0 0 0
ASPERMONT 59 86 57 88 56 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
05/23
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
119 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014
.DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS AND GENERALLY LGT NE/E WIND
EXPECTED DRG THE TAF PERIOD. BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITIES MAY OCCUR DRG
THE 10-14Z THURSDAY PERIOD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 854 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/
DISCUSSION...JUST A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE
FIRST PERIOD GRIDS. WEAK ECHOES OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS WITH
UPPER JET PROBABLY WILL NOT REACH THE GROUND. HOWEVER...ONLY HAVE
20 POPS GOING AND HRRR IS SHOWING SOME WEAK ECHOES NEAR THE AREA
TONIGHT SO WILL NOT REMOVE. ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER A BIT SINCE MOST
CLOUDS ARE EITHER WEST OF NORTH OF AREA. LEFT REMAINDER OF
FORECAST ALONE FOR NOW...AS OVERALL CONDITIONS SHOULD BE QUIET.
PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED. MAY NEED TO TONE THE WINDS DOWN FOR THE
COASTAL WATER FORECAST SINCE MOST AREAS ARE LESS THAN 15 KNOTS AT
THIS TIME.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/
DISCUSSION...FOR 00Z TAFS.
AVIATION...
OTHER THAN PSBLY SOME BRIEF MVFR FOG AT THE INLAND SITES LATE
TONIGHT VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. MID
LEVEL MSTR WILL INCRS AHEAD OF A WEAK DISTURBANCE RESULTING IN
SOME CLOUDS IN THE 10-15K FOOT LAYER.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...PER THE GOES
SOUNDER IMAGERY...MOISTURE AXIS REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE RIO
GRANDE THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH NO PRECIP IS CURRENTLY
FALLING...WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHC ALONG THE RIO GRANDE THROUGH
TONIGHT DUE TO AN APPROACHING UPPER JET AND SHORT WAVE ALONG WITH
INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. ONLY HAVE 5-10 POPS THE
REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM AS THE WEAKENING UPPER DISTURBANCE
SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION AND DRIER AIR FILTERS FARTHER W AND S
ACROSS S TX. ONLY WEATHER BEYOND TODAY MAY BE SOME LIGHT PATCHY
FOG THU MORNING BUT WITH VISIBILITIES AT 4SM OR BETTER...SO DO NOT
HAVE FOG IN THE FCST FOR TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG MAY BE MORE OF AN
ISSUE THU NIGHT/FRI MORNING WITH MUCH DRIER MID AND UPPER LEVELS
ACROSS THE REGION. DUE TO THE DRIER AIRMASS...SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED FOR THU WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MIN
TEMPS. A GENERALLY WEAK TO MOD EAST WIND ACROSS S TX THIS
AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT BECOMING VRB...BUT GENERALLY NE.
THEN A REPEAT IS EXPECTED ON THU AND THU NIGHT. OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS...A MODERATE E TO NE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT THEN WEAKEN
THROUGH THU AND THU NIGHT. A MOD RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...HOWEVER IF WINDS DIMINISH AS
EXPECTED...THE RIP CURRENT RISK MAY BE LOWER ON THU.
LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD
LARGE UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER THE STATE...BRINGING NORTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT AND DRIER CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO
ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH LIGHT WINDS OVER LAND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
UPPER LVL RIDGE BEGINS FLATTENING SUNDAY EVENING AS UPPER LVL TROUGH
AXIS STARTS DIGGING DOWN FROM THE ROCKIES AND SENDING A COLD FRONT
DOWN INTO TEXAS. MODELS STILL DIVERGING ON TIMING AND LOCATION
BEFORE BOUNDARY WASHES OUT. THIS RUN OF THE ECMWF MORE SWIFTLY
BRINGS THE FRONT THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS JUST AT THE END OF THE PERIOD
WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE FRONT STALLED AND THEN WASHING OUT IN
NORTHERN TEXAS. ALSO...THE GFS IS NO LONGER SHOWING THE SPORADIC
STRONG LOW/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMING OVER THE GULF AS IT WAS TRYING
TO SPIN UP IN THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS...RATHER KEEPING A WEAK/BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF...CLOSER TO THE ECMWF. FOR THE TIME
KEPT POPS OUT OF THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT MAY NEED TO ADD
ISOLATED CHANCE AT LEAST FOR THE DAY 8 PERIOD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
ZONES BASED ON TIMING AND POSITION OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT GETS
CLOSER IN TIME.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 84 64 84 63 86 / 10 10 10 0 0
VICTORIA 85 59 86 60 88 / 10 10 10 0 0
LAREDO 86 66 88 65 88 / 10 10 10 0 0
ALICE 86 62 87 62 88 / 10 10 10 0 0
ROCKPORT 82 67 83 66 83 / 10 10 10 0 0
COTULLA 86 63 89 63 90 / 10 10 10 0 0
KINGSVILLE 86 64 86 62 86 / 10 10 10 0 0
NAVY CORPUS 83 69 82 68 83 / 10 10 10 0 0
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
WC/87...AVIATION
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
912 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 912 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014
DENSE FOG HAS FORMED ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA AGAIN THIS EVENING.
NOT EXPECTING THIS TO LAST THROUGH THE ENTIRE NIGHT AS A SURFACE
TROUGH IS SLOWLY APPROACHING THE WESTERN AREA. ONCE THIS COMES
IN...THE WINDS WILL GO AROUND TO THE WEST WITH DRIER AIR COMING IN
AS WELL. UNTIL THIS HAPPENS THOUGH...THE VISIBILITY WILL BE DOWN
TO A QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES. UNCERTAIN ON HOW FAR EAST TO
BRING THE ADVISORY AS THE 25.00Z HRRR DOES NOT SUGGEST THE LOW
VISIBILITIES WILL LAST VERY LONG FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...LOW CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG/DZ THIS
EVENING...TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD.
18Z DATA ANALYSIS HAD A SFC TROUGH/FRONT ACROSS WESTERN MN/WESTERN
IA...MAKING STEADY PROGRESS EAST. VERY MOIST LOW LEVEL AIRMASS IN
PLACE AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH/FRONT. FOG PERSISTING ACROSS MUCH OF
WI/IA HOWEVER VSBYS WERE SLOWLY IMPROVING. SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW/
WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE TROUGH SPREADING LOW CLOUDS/FOG FROM
CENTRAL IA BACK INTO THE FCST AREA. WV IMAGERY SHOWED ONE SHORTWAVE
DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO IL AND A MORE VIGOROUS ONE MOVING EAST NEAR
LK WINNIPEG.
NO MAJOR PROBLEMS NOTED WITH 24.12Z MODEL INITIALIZATIONS. GFS A
LITTLE HIGH WITH SFC DEW POINTS ACROSS IA/SOUTHERN MN BUT NOT OFF AS
MUCH AS IT TYPICALLY IS. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS THE SHORTWAVE
NEAR LK WINNIPEG EARLY THIS AFTERNOON TRACKS MAINLY NORTH OF LK
SUPERIOR TONIGHT THEN AS THE BULK OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKS
INTO QUEBEC BY LATE SAT. STRONGER HGT RISES STILL PROGGED SAT NIGHT
WITH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS TO THE MN/DAKOTAS BORDER BY 12Z SUN.
MODEL TREND TONIGHT THRU SAT NIGHT FAVORS FASTER OF EARLIER RUNS
WITH FEATURES AND MORE NORTHERLY WITH THE SHORTWAVE TRACK. SHORT-
TERM FCST CONFIDENCE IS GOOD THIS CYCLE.
IN THE SHORT TERM...MOIST LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE SFC-
850MB TROUGH CONTINUES ACROSS THE FCST AREA INTO THIS EVENING...WITH
LOWER STRATUS CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG PERSISTING. BY MIDNIGHT THE
SHORTWAVE TRACKING NORTH OF LK SUPERIOR PUSHES THE SFC-850MB TROUGH/
FRONT SOUTH/EAST OF THE FCST AREA. INCREASING NORTHWEST FLOW/COLD
ADVECTION/SUBSIDENCE/DRYING IN THIS LAYER SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA
BEHIND THIS TROUGH/FRONT DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS. TRENDED CLOUDS AND ANY PATCHY FOG/DZ DOWN/OUT DURING THE
EVENING INTO EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. GRADIENT NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONT TO KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER STIRRED LATE TONIGHT AND LOWS
ONCE AGAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL. A DEEP...DRY AIRMASS AND BROAD DEEP
LAYERED SUBSIDENCE SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA FOR SAT/SAT NIGHT AS HGTS
ALOFT SLOWLY RISE AND CAN HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION. 925MB TEMPS IN THE +9C TO +13C RANGE SAT AFTERNOON EVEN WITH
THE LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION. MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL SHOWING MIXING TO
AROUND 900MB SAT AFTERNOON...WITH 20-25KTS OF WIND IN THE TOP OF
THE MIXED LAYER. RAISED SAT AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS IN THE FCST GRIDS.
SFC RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SAT NIGHT...FOR DECOUPLED WINDS
AND STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER THE DEEP DRY AIRMASS/MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. AFTER SAT HIGHS 4F TO 8F ABOVE NORMAL...LOWS SAT NIGHT
LOOKING TO DIP TO NEAR/BELOW NORMAL. USED A BLEND OF THE NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE LOWS/HIGHS FOR TONIGHT THRU SAT NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014
FORECAST CONCERNS FOR SUNDAY THRU MON NIGHT...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES SUN
NIGHT THRU MON NIGHT...TEMPERATURES.
24.12Z MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SUN AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AND TROUGHING DIGS INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
ROCKIES. RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA SUN NIGHT AS THE TROUGH
PROGRESSES THRU THE ROCKIES...WITH THE AREA UNDER INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. TREND SUN/SUN NIGHT IS LESS DIGGING OF THE
TROUGH THRU THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. TIGHTER CONSENSUS MON AS THE TROUGH
LIFTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS. TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH
THE TROUGH MON NIGHT AS IT LIFTS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST....BUT
THESE SMALLER THAN THE EARLIER RUNS. TREND MON/MON NIGHT IS TOWARD
A COMPROMISE ON STRENGTH/TIMING OF EARLIER RUNS. FCST CONFIDENCE
FOR SUN THRU MON NIGHT IS AVERAGE TO GOOD THIS CYCLE.
SFC-850MB LOW/TROUGH WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES
MOVES QUICKLY INTO CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS SUN. INCREASING SOUTHEAST
TO SOUTHWEST MDT/STRONG WARM ADVECTION FLOW BETWEEN THIS TROUGH AND
THE RETREATING SFC HIGH/RIDGE AXIS SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION.
QUESTION IS HOW QUICKLY DOES THE INCREASING MOISTURE ARRIVE. 925-
700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT SPREADS INTO THE FCST AREA SUN AFTERNOON
BUT INITIALLY A VERY DRY AIRMASS TO SATURATE AS IT DOES. 925-850MB
MOISTENS WEST OF THE MS RIVER SUN AFTERNOON WHILE MORE 850-700MB
SATURATION OCCURS EAST OF THE MS RIVER. BULK OF WARM ADVECTION
INITIALLY GOES INTO WARMING WITH SOME INCREASE OF UPWARD MOTION
INDICATED LATE SUN AFTERNOON. MAY YET NEED A SMALL -SHRA CHANCE LATE
SUN AFTERNOON BUT LEFT IT DRY FOR NOW. LIFT CONTINUES TO INCREASE
SUN NIGHT AS THE SFC-850MB TROUGH/FRONT APPROACH AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT
AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH SPREADS INTO THE REGION. MODELS NOW
INDICATING SOMEWHAT LESS MOISTURE TO ADVECT INTO/OVER THE AREA SUN
NIGHT...MAINLY BELOW 800MB WITH RATHER DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE
800- 500MB LAYER. STRONGEST FORCING/LIFT PROGGED OVER THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FCST AREA...NORTHEAST OF A WARM FRONT
ADVANCING ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS DO STILL PROG AT LEAST 250-500
J/KG OF MUCAPE ACROSS THE AREA SUN NIGHT. 20-50 PERCENT
SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA CHANCES PER THE MODEL CONSENSUS...HIGHEST
ALONG/NORTHEAST OF I-94 STILL LOOK GOOD SUN NIGHT. MOISTURE NOW
PROGGED TO DECREASE ACROSS THE AREA AS THE 925-700MB TROUGH PASSES
AND THE FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY IN THAT LAYER. GIVEN THE SFC
LOW/FRONTS IN THE AREA AND AREA AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH...AND SOME WEAK MUCAPE OVER THE AREA... CONTINUED A SMALL
-SHRA/TSRA CHANCE MON. MONDAY COULD END UP MORE SUN THAN CLOUD
UNDER THE MID LEVEL DRY PUNCH...WITH 925MB TEMPS SUPPORTING HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 60S-MID 70S ACROSS THE AREA. STRONGER MID/UPPER LEVEL
FORCING/DIVERGENCE/LIFT SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA MON NIGHT AS THE
MID LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS INTO THE REGION. DEEPER SATURATION TO
700MB INDICATED ALONG WITH SOME WEAK MUCAPE. SHRA CHANCES IN THE
30-50 PERCENT RANGE WITH ISOLATED TSRA REASONABLE. MODEL/ENSEMBLE
CONSENSUS HAS HIGHS/LOWS FOR SUN THRU MON NIGHT WELL TRENDED FOR
NOW.
FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.../DAYS 4 TO 7/...
FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...LINGERING -SHRA TUE...SHRA CHANCES
WITH NEXT SYSTEM WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT...TEMPERATURES.
24.00Z/24.12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS IN DECENT AGREEMENT TUE FOR
THE MAIN TROUGH/SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST. REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR HGTS TO FALL ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WED WITH THE NEXT TROUGH/SHORTWAVE ENERGY...THEN FOR
THIS TROUGH/ENERGY TO MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THU AND RIDGING
TO BUILD INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS FRI. GIVEN REASONABLE BETWEEN
MODEL AND RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY...CONFIDENCE IN THE DAY 4-7
PERIOD IS AVERAGE TO GOOD THIS CYCLE.
BY TUE...MODELS HAVE THE SFC LOW WITH THE TROUGH OVER LK SUPERIOR...
THE SFC-850MB TROUGH/COLD FRONT WELL EAST OF THE AREA AND LOW LEVEL
COLD ADVECTION SPREADING ACROSS MN/IA/WI. APPEARS ANY LINGERING
-SHRA CHANCES TUE ARE NOW IN THE MORNING AND OVER THE NORTHEAST END
OF THE FCST AREA. MORE SEASONABLE AIRMASS SPREADS IN TUE WITH 925MB
TEMPS BY 00Z WED IN THE +3C TO +7C RANGE. SOME LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION RETURNS WED AS THE NEXT LOW ADVANCES INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THIS NEXT LOW/TROUGH
APPEARS LIMITED BUT WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH/SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO
DROP ACROSS THE REGION...SMALL -SHRA CHANCE WED NIGHT/THU PER THE
MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS OKAY FOR NOW. SMALL LINGERING PRECIP
CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST END OF THE FCST AREA THU NIGHT...WHEN
COLUMN WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT PRECIP TYPE AS -RA/-SN OR
-SN. COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
ON TRACK TO BUILD IN TO END THE WEEK. FOR NOW...A CHILLY BUT DRY
EVENING IS IN STORE FOR THE TRICK-OR-TREATERS. MODEL/ENSEMBLE
CONSENSUS OF THE HIGHS/LOWS FOR TUE THRU FRI APPEARS WELL TRENDED
AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 615 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014
THE LOWER CLOUDS WITH MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND BASED ON OBSERVATION TRENDS AND THE 24.20Z
RAP...EXPECTING THAT THESE WILL HAVE MOVE OUT OF KRST BY 00Z AND
SHOULD THEN CLEAR KLSE BY 02Z OR SO. THE RAP SUGGESTS SHORTLY
AFTER THE LOW CLOUDS CLEAR OUT THAT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SURFACE SATURATION TO OCCUR WITH THE SOME FOG. FOR NOW HAVE OPTED
TO NOT INCLUDE THIS IN THE FORECAST AS THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF
CIRRUS OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING SO RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE GOOD AND THERE SHOULD ALSO BE A GOOD WEST
TO NORTHWEST WIND OF 20 KNOTS OR GREATER JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE TO
HELP KEEP THINGS MIXED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE IN
OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR
THE OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THE 24.18Z NAM SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
ENOUGH WIND IN THE MIXED LAYER FOR SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS
LATE SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR WIZ032.
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR MNZ079-086>088-
094>096.
IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR IAZ008>011-018-
019-029-030.
&&
$$
UPDATE...04
SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
615 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...LOW CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG/DZ THIS
EVENING...TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD.
18Z DATA ANALYSIS HAD A SFC TROUGH/FRONT ACROSS WESTERN MN/WESTERN
IA...MAKING STEADY PROGRESS EAST. VERY MOIST LOW LEVEL AIRMASS IN
PLACE AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH/FRONT. FOG PERSISTING ACROSS MUCH OF
WI/IA HOWEVER VSBYS WERE SLOWLY IMPROVING. SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW/
WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE TROUGH SPREADING LOW CLOUDS/FOG FROM
CENTRAL IA BACK INTO THE FCST AREA. WV IMAGERY SHOWED ONE SHORTWAVE
DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO IL AND A MORE VIGOROUS ONE MOVING EAST NEAR
LK WINNIPEG.
NO MAJOR PROBLEMS NOTED WITH 24.12Z MODEL INITIALIZATIONS. GFS A
LITTLE HIGH WITH SFC DEW POINTS ACROSS IA/SOUTHERN MN BUT NOT OFF AS
MUCH AS IT TYPICALLY IS. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS THE SHORTWAVE
NEAR LK WINNIPEG EARLY THIS AFTERNOON TRACKS MAINLY NORTH OF LK
SUPERIOR TONIGHT THEN AS THE BULK OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKS
INTO QUEBEC BY LATE SAT. STRONGER HGT RISES STILL PROGGED SAT NIGHT
WITH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS TO THE MN/DAKOTAS BORDER BY 12Z SUN.
MODEL TREND TONIGHT THRU SAT NIGHT FAVORS FASTER OF EARLIER RUNS
WITH FEATURES AND MORE NORTHERLY WITH THE SHORTWAVE TRACK. SHORT-
TERM FCST CONFIDENCE IS GOOD THIS CYCLE.
IN THE SHORT TERM...MOIST LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE SFC-
850MB TROUGH CONTINUES ACROSS THE FCST AREA INTO THIS EVENING...WITH
LOWER STRATUS CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG PERSISTING. BY MIDNIGHT THE
SHORTWAVE TRACKING NORTH OF LK SUPERIOR PUSHES THE SFC-850MB TROUGH/
FRONT SOUTH/EAST OF THE FCST AREA. INCREASING NORTHWEST FLOW/COLD
ADVECTION/SUBSIDENCE/DRYING IN THIS LAYER SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA
BEHIND THIS TROUGH/FRONT DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS. TRENDED CLOUDS AND ANY PATCHY FOG/DZ DOWN/OUT DURING THE
EVENING INTO EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. GRADIENT NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONT TO KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER STIRRED LATE TONIGHT AND LOWS
ONCE AGAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL. A DEEP...DRY AIRMASS AND BROAD DEEP
LAYERED SUBSIDENCE SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA FOR SAT/SAT NIGHT AS HGTS
ALOFT SLOWLY RISE AND CAN HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION. 925MB TEMPS IN THE +9C TO +13C RANGE SAT AFTERNOON EVEN WITH
THE LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION. MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL SHOWING MIXING TO
AROUND 900MB SAT AFTERNOON...WITH 20-25KTS OF WIND IN THE TOP OF
THE MIXED LAYER. RAISED SAT AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS IN THE FCST GRIDS.
SFC RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SAT NIGHT...FOR DECOUPLED WINDS
AND STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER THE DEEP DRY AIRMASS/MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. AFTER SAT HIGHS 4F TO 8F ABOVE NORMAL...LOWS SAT NIGHT
LOOKING TO DIP TO NEAR/BELOW NORMAL. USED A BLEND OF THE NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE LOWS/HIGHS FOR TONIGHT THRU SAT NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014
FORECAST CONCERNS FOR SUNDAY THRU MON NIGHT...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES SUN
NIGHT THRU MON NIGHT...TEMPERATURES.
24.12Z MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SUN AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AND TROUGHING DIGS INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
ROCKIES. RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA SUN NIGHT AS THE TROUGH
PROGRESSES THRU THE ROCKIES...WITH THE AREA UNDER INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. TREND SUN/SUN NIGHT IS LESS DIGGING OF THE
TROUGH THRU THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. TIGHTER CONSENSUS MON AS THE TROUGH
LIFTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS. TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH
THE TROUGH MON NIGHT AS IT LIFTS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST....BUT
THESE SMALLER THAN THE EARLIER RUNS. TREND MON/MON NIGHT IS TOWARD
A COMPROMISE ON STRENGTH/TIMING OF EARLIER RUNS. FCST CONFIDENCE
FOR SUN THRU MON NIGHT IS AVERAGE TO GOOD THIS CYCLE.
SFC-850MB LOW/TROUGH WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES
MOVES QUICKLY INTO CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS SUN. INCREASING SOUTHEAST
TO SOUTHWEST MDT/STRONG WARM ADVECTION FLOW BETWEEN THIS TROUGH AND
THE RETREATING SFC HIGH/RIDGE AXIS SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION.
QUESTION IS HOW QUICKLY DOES THE INCREASING MOISTURE ARRIVE. 925-
700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT SPREADS INTO THE FCST AREA SUN AFTERNOON
BUT INITIALLY A VERY DRY AIRMASS TO SATURATE AS IT DOES. 925-850MB
MOISTENS WEST OF THE MS RIVER SUN AFTERNOON WHILE MORE 850-700MB
SATURATION OCCURS EAST OF THE MS RIVER. BULK OF WARM ADVECTION
INITIALLY GOES INTO WARMING WITH SOME INCREASE OF UPWARD MOTION
INDICATED LATE SUN AFTERNOON. MAY YET NEED A SMALL -SHRA CHANCE LATE
SUN AFTERNOON BUT LEFT IT DRY FOR NOW. LIFT CONTINUES TO INCREASE
SUN NIGHT AS THE SFC-850MB TROUGH/FRONT APPROACH AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT
AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH SPREADS INTO THE REGION. MODELS NOW
INDICATING SOMEWHAT LESS MOISTURE TO ADVECT INTO/OVER THE AREA SUN
NIGHT...MAINLY BELOW 800MB WITH RATHER DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE
800- 500MB LAYER. STRONGEST FORCING/LIFT PROGGED OVER THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FCST AREA...NORTHEAST OF A WARM FRONT
ADVANCING ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS DO STILL PROG AT LEAST 250-500
J/KG OF MUCAPE ACROSS THE AREA SUN NIGHT. 20-50 PERCENT
SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA CHANCES PER THE MODEL CONSENSUS...HIGHEST
ALONG/NORTHEAST OF I-94 STILL LOOK GOOD SUN NIGHT. MOISTURE NOW
PROGGED TO DECREASE ACROSS THE AREA AS THE 925-700MB TROUGH PASSES
AND THE FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY IN THAT LAYER. GIVEN THE SFC
LOW/FRONTS IN THE AREA AND AREA AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH...AND SOME WEAK MUCAPE OVER THE AREA... CONTINUED A SMALL
-SHRA/TSRA CHANCE MON. MONDAY COULD END UP MORE SUN THAN CLOUD
UNDER THE MID LEVEL DRY PUNCH...WITH 925MB TEMPS SUPPORTING HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 60S-MID 70S ACROSS THE AREA. STRONGER MID/UPPER LEVEL
FORCING/DIVERGENCE/LIFT SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA MON NIGHT AS THE
MID LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS INTO THE REGION. DEEPER SATURATION TO
700MB INDICATED ALONG WITH SOME WEAK MUCAPE. SHRA CHANCES IN THE
30-50 PERCENT RANGE WITH ISOLATED TSRA REASONABLE. MODEL/ENSEMBLE
CONSENSUS HAS HIGHS/LOWS FOR SUN THRU MON NIGHT WELL TRENDED FOR
NOW.
FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.../DAYS 4 TO 7/...
FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...LINGERING -SHRA TUE...SHRA CHANCES
WITH NEXT SYSTEM WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT...TEMPERATURES.
24.00Z/24.12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS IN DECENT AGREEMENT TUE FOR
THE MAIN TROUGH/SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST. REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR HGTS TO FALL ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WED WITH THE NEXT TROUGH/SHORTWAVE ENERGY...THEN FOR
THIS TROUGH/ENERGY TO MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THU AND RIDGING
TO BUILD INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS FRI. GIVEN REASONABLE BETWEEN
MODEL AND RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY...CONFIDENCE IN THE DAY 4-7
PERIOD IS AVERAGE TO GOOD THIS CYCLE.
BY TUE...MODELS HAVE THE SFC LOW WITH THE TROUGH OVER LK SUPERIOR...
THE SFC-850MB TROUGH/COLD FRONT WELL EAST OF THE AREA AND LOW LEVEL
COLD ADVECTION SPREADING ACROSS MN/IA/WI. APPEARS ANY LINGERING
-SHRA CHANCES TUE ARE NOW IN THE MORNING AND OVER THE NORTHEAST END
OF THE FCST AREA. MORE SEASONABLE AIRMASS SPREADS IN TUE WITH 925MB
TEMPS BY 00Z WED IN THE +3C TO +7C RANGE. SOME LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION RETURNS WED AS THE NEXT LOW ADVANCES INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THIS NEXT LOW/TROUGH
APPEARS LIMITED BUT WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH/SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO
DROP ACROSS THE REGION...SMALL -SHRA CHANCE WED NIGHT/THU PER THE
MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS OKAY FOR NOW. SMALL LINGERING PRECIP
CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST END OF THE FCST AREA THU NIGHT...WHEN
COLUMN WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT PRECIP TYPE AS -RA/-SN OR
-SN. COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
ON TRACK TO BUILD IN TO END THE WEEK. FOR NOW...A CHILLY BUT DRY
EVENING IS IN STORE FOR THE TRICK-OR-TREATERS. MODEL/ENSEMBLE
CONSENSUS OF THE HIGHS/LOWS FOR TUE THRU FRI APPEARS WELL TRENDED
AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 615 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014
THE LOWER CLOUDS WITH MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND BASED ON OBSERVATION TRENDS AND THE 24.20Z
RAP...EXPECTING THAT THESE WILL HAVE MOVE OUT OF KRST BY 00Z AND
SHOULD THEN CLEAR KLSE BY 02Z OR SO. THE RAP SUGGESTS SHORTLY
AFTER THE LOW CLOUDS CLEAR OUT THAT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SURFACE SATURATION TO OCCUR WITH THE SOME FOG. FOR NOW HAVE OPTED
TO NOT INCLUDE THIS IN THE FORECAST AS THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF
CIRRUS OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING SO RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE GOOD AND THERE SHOULD ALSO BE A GOOD WEST
TO NORTHWEST WIND OF 20 KNOTS OR GREATER JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE TO
HELP KEEP THINGS MIXED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE IN
OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR
THE OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THE 24.18Z NAM SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
ENOUGH WIND IN THE MIXED LAYER FOR SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS
LATE SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
602 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...FOG LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRI
MORNING...TEMPERATURES/CLOUDS THRU THE PERIOD.
DATA ANALYSIS AT 18Z HAD THE BAND OF SHRA CONTINUING TO MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE WEST EDGE NEAR A KMDZ-KVOK-KOVS LINE. WV
IMAGERY SHOWED THE RATHER VIGOROUS MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE/TROUGH MOVING
STEADILY EAST ACROSS THE REGION. VIS IMAGERY SHOWED THE CLEARING
BEHIND THE TROUGH WAS SLOWER TO MOVE EAST...WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE/
IFR CLOUD DECKS TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION NEAR 900MB. EARLY
AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 40S IN THE SHRA OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN
WI...TO THE UPPER 50S-MID 60S IN THE SUNSHINE OVER SOUTHWEST MN.
23.12Z MODELS INITIALIZED WELL...EVEN GFS WITH ITS SFC DEWPOINTS
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/NORTHERN PLAINS. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH QUICKLY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND
SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN. CONSISTENT SIGNAL FOR A WEAK SHORTWAVE
FROM THE WEST TO WORK THRU THE SHORTWAVE RIDGING ACROSS REGION LATE
TONIGHT/FRI MORNING. MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT ON A SHORTWAVE/TOUGH
TO DROP TOWARD/ACROSS LK SUPERIOR FRI NIGHT. TREND FOR TONIGHT THRU
FRI NIGHT GENERALLY FAVORS A COMPROMISE OF THE EARLIER RUNS. SHORT
TERM FCST CONFIDENCE IS GOOD THIS CYCLE.
IN THE SHORT TERM...POST TROUGH DECREASE OF CLOUDS/CLEARING EXPECTED
TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE RIDGING/RISING HGTS
BUILD IN. RAIN/CLOUDS TODAY KEEPING T/TD SPREADS ON THE LOW SIDE
OVER THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS PLUS THE DECREASE OF CLOUDS
TONIGHT AND GRADIENT WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT ACROSS MOST OF
THE FCST AREA SETS THE STAGE FOR AREAS TO WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG
LATER TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. CONTINUED STRONG SIGNAL AMONG SREF
MEMBERS FOR VSBYS BELOW 1SM OVER THE EAST 2/3 OF THE FCST AREA
CENTERED ON 12Z FRI MORNING. BASED ON WHAT HAPPENED WITH DENSE FOG
ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL MN...EASTERN SD/NEB...WESTERN IA THIS MORNING...
UPON COORD WITH NEIGHBORS WILL ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE
ENTIRE FCST AREA FROM 06Z-15Z FRI.
MODEST ROUND OF LOWER LEVEL WARM ADVECTION/MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD
OF A SFC-700MB TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA FRI. THE MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FRI MORNING WHILE THE MAIN 925-
850MB MOISTURE INCREASE SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA FRI AFTERNOON/
EVENING. NAM INSISTS ON PRODUCING SOME LIGHT QPF ACROSS THE
SOUTH/WEST PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING BUT
THIS LOOKS OVERDONE DUE TO 1/ THE SHALLOWNESS OF THE MOISTURE 2/
MOISTURE IS UNDER AN INVERSION NEAR 850MB AND 3/ THE SHORTWAVE IS
WELL SOUTH/EAST OF THE AREA BY 00Z SAT. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
PATCHY -DZ BUT MOISTURE LOOKS EVEN TOO SHALLOW FOR THIS AND LEFT
FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING DRY. SOME INCREASE OF LOWER STRATO-CU CLOUDS
EXPECTED FOR FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING...IMPACTING TEMPERATURES. MIXED
925MB TEMPS FRI AFTERNOON WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID 60S-LOW
70S...BUT WITH POTENTIAL FOR THE LOWER AFTERNOON CLOUDS WILL LEAVE
FRI HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 60S. LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES
FRI EVENING...AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH/COLD FRONT WITH THE
LK SUPERIOR SHORTWAVE. 925MB TEMPS PEAK IN THE +13C TO +18C RANGE
AROUND 06Z SAT WITH THE STRONGER LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION ARRIVING
AROUND 12Z SAT. FRONT COMES THRU DRY FRI NIGHT AS 925-700MB LAYER
IS DRY. GIVEN BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS FOR MIXING FRI NIGHT BOTH AHEAD
OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT...FRI NIGHT LOWS CONTINUE TO LOOK QUITE
MILD FOR LATE OCT. USED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE LOWS/HIGHS FOR
TONIGHT THRU SAT NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOR SATURDAY THRU SUNDAY NIGHT...SHRA/TSRA
CHANCES SUN NIGHT...TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD.
23.12Z MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SAT THRU SUN AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PASSES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES EARLY SAT THEN HGTS OVER THE
REGION SLOWLY RISE LATER SAT THRU SUN. GOOD MODEL CONSISTENCY FOR
THE LONGWAVE RIDGE AXIS TO BE NEAR THE MS RIVER AT 00Z MON AND
LONGWAVE TROUGHING TO BE OVER THE ROCKIES. TREND AT 00Z MON FAVORS
SLOWER OF THE EARLIER MODEL RUNS. RIDGE AXIS QUICKLY MOVES EAST
SUN NIGHT WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BY 12Z MON AS THE
ROCKIES TROUGH BEGINS TO EJECT INTO THE PLAINS. FCST CONFIDENCE
FOR SAT THRU SUN NIGHT IS ON THE GOOD SIDE.
SAT THRU SUN DOMINATED BY CAN SFC HIGH PRESSURE. DRY NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA SAT/SAT NIGHT. LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
CONTINUES SAT BUT 925MB TEMPS IN +9C TO +13C AT 00Z SUN. UNDER
SUNNY SKIES...SAT HIGHS STILL LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S-MID 60S
EVEN WITH THE COLD ADVECTION. 925MB WINDS IN THE 25KT RANGE SAT
WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING MIXING TO 900MB SAT AFTERNOON...FOR
BRISK/BREEZY/GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. SFC RIDGE AXIS SLIDES ACROSS
THE AREA SAT NIGHT. WINDS DECOUPLE AND UNDER CLEAR SKIES STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING/LARGE DIURNAL SWING EXPECTED SAT NIGHT. SFC-
850MB RIDGE AXIS QUICKLY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA SUN WITH A RETURN
OF SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH LOW LEVEL FLOW/WARM ADVECTION. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN BEGINS TO SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST END OF THE
FCST AREA LATE SUN. INITIALLY A VERY DRY SFC-500MB AIRMASS TO
MOISTEN UP. THE MOISTURE/THETA-E AXIS AND STRONGER LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION REMAIN WEST/SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA THRU 00Z MON. LEFT
SUNDAY DRY FOR NOW BUT MAY YET NEED A SMALL -SHRA CHANCE ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST END OF THE FCST AREA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. LEAD
ROUND OF STRONGER/DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT/THETA-E
CONVERGENCE AND WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE PLAINS TROUGH/LOW
SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA SUN NIGHT. IMPROVING CONSENSUS FOR A WARM
FRONT AHEAD OF THE LOW IN THE PLAINS TO BE LIFTING ACROSS IA SUN
NIGHT...PROVIDING AN ADDED FOCUS/ISENTROPIC LIFTING MECHANISM
NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY. 250-500+ J/KG OF MUCAPE PROGGED IN THE
AIRMASS BEING LIFTED OVER THE WARM FRONT SUN NIGHT. CONSENSUS RAIN
CHANCES IN THE 20-50 PERCENT RANGE LOOK GOOD SUN NIGHT...AND
CONTINUED THE MENTION OF TSRA. GENERALLY STAYED WITH A BLEND OF
THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HIGHS/LOWS FOR SAT THRU SUN NIGHT.
FOR MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.../DAYS 4 TO 7/...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES MON/MON
NIGHT...SHRA CHANCES TUE/TUE NIGHT...TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD.
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS OF 23.00Z/23.12Z IN GOOD AGREEMENT MON AS
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PLAINS. REASONABLE AGREEMENT
AMONG MODELS TUE AS THE TROUGH/MAIN ENERGY LIFTS INTO THE MID/UPPER
MS VALLEY. TREND MON/TUE FAVORS A COMPROMISE OF THE EARLIER RUNS ON
TIMING/STRENGTH OF THIS TROUGH. RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN
ECMWF/GFS ON WED WITH BROAD TROUGHING OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL/EASTERN
NOAM AND SOME FORM OF RIDGING OVER THE US/CAN ROCKIES. DIFFERENCES
BY THU...MAINLY WITH PROGRESSIVENESS OF A NORTHWEST FLOW SHORTWAVE
INTO THE REGION...WHICH IS NOT UNUSUAL AT DAY 7. 23.12Z ECMWF/GFS IN
BETTER AGREEMENT THU THAN THEIR 23.00Z RUNS WERE. ECMWF OFFERS THE
BETTER RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY WED/THU. FCST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE TO
GOOD MON-WED THEN AVERAGE ON THU.
MOIST AIRMASS WITH UP TO 250-500 J/KG MUCAPE PROGGED OVER THE AREA
MON/MON NIGHT. THIS AHEAD THE SFC-MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
PLAINS AND LIFTING TOWARD THE REGION. PLENTY OF DETAIL DIFFERENCES
WITH THE STRENGTH/LOCATION OF THE SFC LOW/STRONGER FORCING LIFTING
TOWARD/ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AT THE DAY 4 TIME-FRAME BUT THE 20-
50 PERCENT SHRA/TSRA CHANCES PER THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS QUITE
REASONABLE FOR NOW. BY TUE THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE SFC-700MB LOW
AND MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTING ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A
DEFORMATION BAND OF MOISTURE/FORCING TO ROTATE ACROSS THE AREA.
AGAIN PLENTY OF DETAIL DIFFERENCES OUT IN DAY 5 BUT 25-50 PERCENT
SHRA CHANCES PER THE CONSENSUS GOOD AT THIS TIME. SFC THRU MID LEVEL
SYSTEM TO LIFT OUT TUE NIGHT...WITH DIMINISHING -SHRA CHANCES.
COOLER AIRMASS/WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN ITS
WAKE FOR WHAT SHOULD BE A DRY DAY WED. TIMING DIFFERENCES BY THU
IMPACT POTENTIAL -SHRA CHANCES SPREADING BACK INTO THE FCST AREA.
GIVEN LESSER CONFIDENCE OUT ON DAY 7...STAYED WITH THE MODEL/
ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS. GIVEN ALL THE LOWER LEVEL DETAIL DIFFERENCES IN
DAYS 4-7...THE BLEND OF THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HIGHS/LOWS
FOR MON-THU LOOK WELL TRENDED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 602 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014
WHILE THE CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED OUT OF KRST...THE BACK EDGE HAS YET
TO REACH KLSE. GIVEN THE CURRENT MOVEMENT OF THE CLOUDS...KLSE MAY
NOT CLEAR OUT UNTIL 02Z OR SO AND EXPECT THE IFR CEILINGS WITH
MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITIES TO CONTINUE UNTIL THE CLEARING ARRIVES.
ONCE THE CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED OUT...IT SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR
DENSE FOG TO FORM OVERNIGHT. PLENTY OF MOISTURE IS IN PLACE FROM
THE RAIN AND WITH LIGHT WINDS AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS...EXPECT TO SEE MVFR VISIBILITIES REDEVELOP AT BOTH
SITES BY 06Z AND THEN GO DOWN TO IFR BY 08Z WITH A VISIBILITY AS
LOW AS 1/4SM. THE 23.20Z RAP SUGGESTS CONDITIONS WILL START TO
IMPROVE AT KRST SHORTLY AFTER 12Z AS DRYING ALOFT DEVELOPS ALONG
WITH AN INCREASE IN THE SURFACE WINDS TO BREAK UP THE FOG. THESE
CONDITIONS MAY NOT DEVELOP OVER KLSE UNTIL MID MORNING SO HAVE
MAINTAINED THE IFR CONDITIONS UNTIL 15Z. BOTH SITES THEN GO TO VFR
CONDITIONS BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. THE 23.18Z NAM
INDICATES THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR CEILINGS REDEVELOPING FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN A ZONE OF 1-3
UBAR/S OF UP GLIDE ON THE 300K ISENTROPIC SURFACE. IT RAPIDLY
INCREASES THE MOISTURE OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH...BUT DOES SO WITHOUT THE AID OF ANY MOISTURE ADVECTION
INTO THE AREA. THE 23.12Z GFS DOES NOT SHOW THIS RAPID MOISTURE
INCREASE AND FOR NOW HAVE JUST OPTED TO SHOW SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS
WITH THIS FEATURE.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR WIZ017-029-
032>034-041>044-053>055-061.
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR MNZ079-
086>088-094>096.
IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR IAZ008>011-
018-019-029-030.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1226 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014
THE LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE DAKOTAS PUSHING AN OCCLUDED FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AHEAD OF THE FEATURES...A CHANNEL OF DEEP
MOISTURE IS EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN MEXICO INTO MINNESOTA AND
WESTERN WISCONSIN. A FEW SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE LEADING
EDGE OF THIS MOISTURE CHANNEL FROM IRONWOOD TO LA CROSSE.
HOWEVER...THE MAIN BAND OF BROKEN RAIN SHOWERS IS MOVING EAST OVER
EASTERN MINNESOTA. CLEAR SKIES RESUME BEHIND THE OCCLUDED FRONT OVER
THE DAKOTAS. THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE TIMING OF RAIN
CHANCES AS THE SHORTWAVE AND OCCLUDED FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY.
TODAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL PUSH A DECAYING
OCCLUDED FRONT EAST ACROSS THE STATE. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND
FRONT...WILL SEE DECENT MOISTURE WITHIN THE THETAE AXIS SPREAD EAST
WITH PWATS UPWARDS OF AN INCH. BUT FORCING AND INSTABILITY ARE ONLY
MODEST SO ALTHOUGH MOST PLACES WILL SEE LIGHT RAIN...AMOUNTS SHOULD
ONLY REACH A TENTH OR TWO. ADJUSTED THE TIMING OF THE BAND OF RAIN
ACROSS THE AREA SLIGHTLY SLOWER BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE. AMPLE
DRY AIR SHOULD KEEP AREAS ALONG THE BAY AND FOX VALLEY DRY THROUGH
THE MORNING THEN SHOULD SEE THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES ARRIVE BETWEEN
18-21Z. TEMPS WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO REACH INTO THE MIDDLE 50S
ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN BEFORE THE RAIN ARRIVES...BUT TEMPS WILL
LIKELY STRUGGLE TO REACH 50 OVER NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN SINCE RAIN
WILL ARRIVE DURING THE MORNING.
TONIGHT...WHATS LEFT OF THE LIGHT RAIN WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF
EXITING EASTERN WISCONSIN EARLY IN THE EVENING AND THINK RAIN
CHANCES WILL HAVE MOSTLY EXITED THE LAKE SHORE BY 03Z. PLENTY OF
DRY AIR ALOFT WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE...AND INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE WILL LOWER THE INVERSION. PROGGED SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BECOME TRAPPED BELOW THIS INVERSION AS SKIES
CLEAR OVERNIGHT. LOOKING UPSTREAM...VISIBILITIES ARE FALLING RIGHT
BEHIND THE CLOUD LINE OVER NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS SUPPORTS
A DECENT SETUP FOR FOG LATE TONIGHT AND WILL ADD TO THE FORECAST
EVERYWHERE. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S.
FRIDAY...ONCE ANY MORNING FOG BURNS OFF...SHOULD SEE A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE UNTIL THE AFTERNOON WHEN A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. SHOULD SEE CLOUDS INCREASE THERE...BUT MOSTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
PUSH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014
NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW FORECAST BY THE MODELS FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. MILDER THAN USUAL WEATHER EXPECTED AS
THE SURFACE HIGH MOVING IN IS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INSTEAD OF
FROM CANADA. UPPER FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUES UNTIL AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE FIRST ROUND OF PRECIPITATION MAY ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY
AS A WARM FRONT AS A WARM FRONT FORMS AND MOVES NORTH FROM
ILLINOIS. LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND CONVERGENCE SHOULD GENERATE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST
ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THE LOW INTENSIFIES AND LIFTS TO THE
NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH.
COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
A BIG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPS SOUTH FROM CANADA.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014
RAIN MOVING ACROSS STATE AND WILL EXIT WEST TO EAST BEGINNING
AROUND 19Z IN CENTRAL WISC...AND OUT OF EASTERN WISC BY ABOUT
01Z. CONSIDERABLE AREA OF CLOUDS BELOW 1000 FT BEHIND THE RAIN
AREA ALONG WITH VSBYS OF 2 TO 4 MILES IN FOG. LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS
EXPECTED TO LINGER OR EXPAND TONIGHT WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING
AROUND 14Z FRIDAY.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......JKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1113 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014
.UPDATE...
AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA...IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LEAD 500 MB VORTICITY
MAXIMUM. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
THE MAIN 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS DRIVING THE SECOND AREA OF
RAIN SHOWERS IN NORTHEAST IOWA. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
EAST INTO THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND THROUGH THE AREA
THIS EVENING. THUS...THE AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS TIME.
THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH OF THIS WILL HANG ON IN THE
FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES...AS DRY AIR IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE
AMOUNT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY. HRRR AND MOST OTHER MESOSCALE MODELS
CONTINUE TO PUSH THE RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THAT AREA.
WILL CONTINUE HIGH POPS IN THE WEST AND NORTH THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING...WITH POPS TRENDING LOWER TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST. CLOUDS
AND RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD LIMIT HIGHS TO THE MID 50S IN MOST AREAS.
&&
.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...
AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO
PUSH EAST THROUGH TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON...ENDING BY EARLY TO
MID EVENING IN THE EAST. MAY SEE SOME MVFR CEILINGS AS WELL.
SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL REACH THE
EASTERN SITES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WITH DRY
AIR IN PLACE. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION PREVAILING SHOWERS FOR NOW
BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH TRENDS. SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY
EVENING...WITH AN OCCASIONAL GUST TO AROUND 15 KNOTS.
FOG WITH CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES DOWN TO ALTERNATE MINIMUMS MAY
DEVELOP AND LINGER THROUGH THE REST OF TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...AS LOW LEVELS REMAIN MOIST WITH LIGHT WINDS. SOME
UNCERTAINTY HERE BUT WILL TREND IN THAT DIRECTION IN TAFS. LIGHT
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY...WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN
CUMULUS CLOUDS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/
TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
DIDN/T NEED TO CHANCE MUCH FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. DECENT MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TODAY WITH A
WEAKENING LOW LEVEL REFLECTION AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. A BAND OF SLOW
MOVING LIGHT SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH...LASTING ABOUT 4-6 HOURS.
LOOKS LIKE THINGS MAY HAVE SLOWED DOWN BY AN HOUR OR TWO. THE
HIGHEST POPS WILL REMAIN WEST OF MADISON AND THEN GRADUALLY LOWER
THEM AS THE SHOWERS MOVE EAST. THE OVERALL WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM
WITH TIME SHOULD BRING MAINLY CHCY POPS TO THE SOUTHEAST BY MID
AFTERNOON.
THE PRECIP MAY LINGERING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE EARLY
EVENING...OTHERWISE QUIET WEATHER RETURNS FOR TONIGHT WITH SLOW
CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST.
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
500 MILLIBAR RIDGING EXPANDS ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE
NAM AND TO A LESSER DEGREE...THE GFS AND ECMWF...SHOW A WEAKENING
VORTICITY AXIS MOVING THROUGH THIS DEVELOPING NORTHWEST
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. IN THE LOW LEVELS THERE IS A SURFACE TROUGH
THAT APPROACHES LATER FRIDAY AND MOVES ACROSS SRN WI FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE NAM HAS BEEN THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN GENERATING LIGHT QPF.
MEANWHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE HINTED AT SOME LIGHT QPF AS WELL
BUT VERY MINIMAL COVERAGE AND MOSTLY TO OUR SOUTH. THE NAM AND GFS
BUFKIT SHOWS MAINLY HIGH BASED AC WITH SOUNDINGS MOISTENING UP
CONSIDERABLY AOB 5K FEET FRIDAY NIGHT SUGGESTING AT LEAST THE
POTENTIAL FOR DRIZZLE. PER COLLAB WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES WILL
KEEP FORECAST DRY BUT NUDGE SILENT POPS UP JUST A SMIDGE.
SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW. VORT MAX/SHORTWAVE TREKS
FROM LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THE EASTERN LAKES WITH ANY INFLUENCE OF
THIS FEATURE REMAINING TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST. WEAK SHOT OF
CAA WITH SURFACE/850 WINDS FAIRLY GUSTY WITH TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT. SURFACE HIGH MOVES INTO WRN IA BY 00Z. 925 TEMPS DROP
FROM THE TEENS CELSIUS AT THE OUTSET BACK INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.
SO STILL LOOKING AT LOW TO MID 60S FOR HIGHS.
SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
500 MILLIBAR HEIGHTS RISE AS PLAINS UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS TOWARDS
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST FROM WI
AND IL INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. RETURN FLOW SLOW TO GET GOING WITH
WARMER 925 TEMPS TO OUR SOUTHWEST ACROSS IA...SO AIRMASS
MODIFICATION NOT GREAT. MOST GUIDANCE NUMBERS SUPPORTING MID 50S
TO LOW 60S FOR HIGHS.
SUNDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST WITH UPPER FLOW BECOMING MORE
SOUTHWEST. WITH CYCLOGENESIS GETTING UNDERWAY IN THE PLAINS...850
LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES TOWARDS SRN WI WITH DECENT 850 MOISTURE
PUSH. MINIMAL ELEVATED CAPE SHOWN IN THE SOUNDINGS....THOUGH WITH
DECENT THETA-E ADVECTION AND FORCING FROM LLJ WILL GO AHEAD AND
MENTION THUNDER.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
ECMWF AND GFS BRING WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIRMASS INTO THE AREA
WITH A POTENTIAL LULL IN PRECIP AFTER INITIAL WAA EVENT MOVES
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB DEEP INTO THE
60S...POTENTIALLY HIGHER WITH SOME SUNSHINE. PRIMARY LOW LIFTS
NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH BOTH MODELS
SHOWING THE LOW TRACKING THROUGH WI. AT SOME POINT WILL PROBABLY
NEED TO BOOST POPS FOR THIS PERIOD AS SOME CONSENSUS STARTING TO
TAKE SHAPE.
WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
GFS HAS A FAIRLY BENIGN NW LOW LEVEL FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTED LOW TO THE NORTHEAST. MEANWHILE THE 12Z ECMWF HAD
DEVELOPED A SECONDARY LOW TO OUR SOUTH AND BROUGHT A SLUG OF
PRECIP IN HERE AS THE LOW TRACKED TO OUR SOUTHEAST. 00Z ECMWF HAS
COMPLETELY CONVERTED TO THE GFS IDEA OF A MORE PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM
WITH FRONTAL PRECIP SHIFTING WELL EAST AND NO SECONDARY
DEVELOPMENT WHATSOEVER. IN FACT SUPERBLEND IS SHOWING POPS FOR
THIS PERIOD AND IF THIS CONSENSUS PERSISTS POPS MAY BE EVENTUALLY
REMOVED WITH SURFACE HIGH FROM BOTH 00Z RUNS TAKING HOLD.
AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS TO THE TAF SITES TODAY. THE
SHOWERS SHOULD ONLY LAST ABOUT 4 TO 6 HOURS...REACHING KMSN BY MID
TO LATE MORNING AND KMKE/KUES/KENW BY EARLY AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS
ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE SHOWERS AS THE LOW LEVELS MOISTEN
UP AND WINDS REMAIN VERY LIGHT. CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE SLOWLY FROM
WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THAT TREND...GIVEN
THE OVERNIGHT TIMING AND CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS...IS RATHER LOW.
MARINE...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD DEVELOP ON SATURDAY AND
LINGER INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE WELL NORTHEAST
OF THE REGION...AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
BRISK WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE LIKELY DURING THIS TIME...WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
HIGH WAVES SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE OPEN WATERS...DUE TO THE OFFSHORE
NATURE OF THE WINDS.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WOOD
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...COLLAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
622 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014
THE LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE DAKOTAS PUSHING AN OCCLUDED FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AHEAD OF THE FEATURES...A CHANNEL OF DEEP
MOISTURE IS EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN MEXICO INTO MINNESOTA AND
WESTERN WISCONSIN. A FEW SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE LEADING
EDGE OF THIS MOISTURE CHANNEL FROM IRONWOOD TO LA CROSSE.
HOWEVER...THE MAIN BAND OF BROKEN RAIN SHOWERS IS MOVING EAST OVER
EASTERN MINNESOTA. CLEAR SKIES RESUME BEHIND THE OCCLUDED FRONT OVER
THE DAKOTAS. THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE TIMING OF RAIN
CHANCES AS THE SHORTWAVE AND OCCLUDED FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY.
TODAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL PUSH A DECAYING
OCCLUDED FRONT EAST ACROSS THE STATE. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND
FRONT...WILL SEE DECENT MOISTURE WITHIN THE THETAE AXIS SPREAD EAST
WITH PWATS UPWARDS OF AN INCH. BUT FORCING AND INSTABILITY ARE ONLY
MODEST SO ALTHOUGH MOST PLACES WILL SEE LIGHT RAIN...AMOUNTS SHOULD
ONLY REACH A TENTH OR TWO. ADJUSTED THE TIMING OF THE BAND OF RAIN
ACROSS THE AREA SLIGHTLY SLOWER BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE. AMPLE
DRY AIR SHOULD KEEP AREAS ALONG THE BAY AND FOX VALLEY DRY THROUGH
THE MORNING THEN SHOULD SEE THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES ARRIVE BETWEEN
18-21Z. TEMPS WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO REACH INTO THE MIDDLE 50S
ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN BEFORE THE RAIN ARRIVES...BUT TEMPS WILL
LIKELY STRUGGLE TO REACH 50 OVER NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN SINCE RAIN
WILL ARRIVE DURING THE MORNING.
TONIGHT...WHATS LEFT OF THE LIGHT RAIN WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF
EXITING EASTERN WISCONSIN EARLY IN THE EVENING AND THINK RAIN
CHANCES WILL HAVE MOSTLY EXITED THE LAKE SHORE BY 03Z. PLENTY OF
DRY AIR ALOFT WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE...AND INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE WILL LOWER THE INVERSION. PROGGED SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BECOME TRAPPED BELOW THIS INVERSION AS SKIES
CLEAR OVERNIGHT. LOOKING UPSTREAM...VISIBILITIES ARE FALLING RIGHT
BEHIND THE CLOUD LINE OVER NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS SUPPORTS
A DECENT SETUP FOR FOG LATE TONIGHT AND WILL ADD TO THE FORECAST
EVERYWHERE. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S.
FRIDAY...ONCE ANY MORNING FOG BURNS OFF...SHOULD SEE A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE UNTIL THE AFTERNOON WHEN A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. SHOULD SEE CLOUDS INCREASE THERE...BUT MOSTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
PUSH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014
NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW FORECAST BY THE MODELS FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. MILDER THAN USUAL WEATHER EXPECTED AS
THE SURFACE HIGH MOVING IN IS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INSTEAD OF
FROM CANADA. UPPER FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUES UNTIL AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE FIRST ROUND OF PRECIPITATION MAY ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY
AS A WARM FRONT AS A WARM FRONT FORMS AND MOVES NORTH FROM
ILLINOIS. LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND CONVERGENCE SHOULD GENERATE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST
ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THE LOW INTENSIFIES AND LIFTS TO THE
NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH.
COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
A BIG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPS SOUTH FROM CANADA.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 622 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014
AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE STATE AND WILL BRING A
BROKEN BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE REGION BEFORE EXITING EASTERN
WISCONSIN EARLY THIS EVENING. EXPECT CIGS TO GRADUALLY FALL TO MVFR
OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY MIDDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT.
DURING THE EVENING...MVFR TO IFR CIGS MAY PERSIST ESPECIALLY OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF WISCONSIN AS THE FRONT PASSES OVER THE AREA. RESIDUAL
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS MAY ALSO ALLOW FOR SOME
AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP DURING THE EVENING AS WELL. THE FOG MAY
BECOME LOCALLY DENSE OVERNIGHT.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......MPC
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014
THE LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE DAKOTAS PUSHING AN OCCLUDED FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AHEAD OF THE FEATURES...A CHANNEL OF DEEP
MOISTURE IS EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN MEXICO INTO MINNESOTA AND
WESTERN WISCONSIN. A FEW SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE LEADING
EDGE OF THIS MOISTURE CHANNEL FROM IRONWOOD TO LA CROSSE.
HOWEVER...THE MAIN BAND OF BROKEN RAIN SHOWERS IS MOVING EAST OVER
EASTERN MINNESOTA. CLEAR SKIES RESUME BEHIND THE OCCLUDED FRONT OVER
THE DAKOTAS. THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE TIMING OF RAIN
CHANCES AS THE SHORTWAVE AND OCCLUDED FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY.
TODAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL PUSH A DECAYING
OCCLUDED FRONT EAST ACROSS THE STATE. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND
FRONT...WILL SEE DECENT MOISTURE WITHIN THE THETAE AXIS SPREAD EAST
WITH PWATS UPWARDS OF AN INCH. BUT FORCING AND INSTABILITY ARE ONLY
MODEST SO ALTHOUGH MOST PLACES WILL SEE LIGHT RAIN...AMOUNTS SHOULD
ONLY REACH A TENTH OR TWO. ADJUSTED THE TIMING OF THE BAND OF RAIN
ACROSS THE AREA SLIGHTLY SLOWER BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE. AMPLE
DRY AIR SHOULD KEEP AREAS ALONG THE BAY AND FOX VALLEY DRY THROUGH
THE MORNING THEN SHOULD SEE THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES ARRIVE BETWEEN
18-21Z. TEMPS WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO REACH INTO THE MIDDLE 50S
ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN BEFORE THE RAIN ARRIVES...BUT TEMPS WILL
LIKELY STRUGGLE TO REACH 50 OVER NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN SINCE RAIN
WILL ARRIVE DURING THE MORNING.
TONIGHT...WHATS LEFT OF THE LIGHT RAIN WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF
EXITING EASTERN WISCONSIN EARLY IN THE EVENING AND THINK RAIN
CHANCES WILL HAVE MOSTLY EXITED THE LAKE SHORE BY 03Z. PLENTY OF
DRY AIR ALOFT WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE...AND INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE WILL LOWER THE INVERSION. PROGGED SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BECOME TRAPPED BELOW THIS INVERSION AS SKIES
CLEAR OVERNIGHT. LOOKING UPSTREAM...VISIBILITIES ARE FALLING RIGHT
BEHIND THE CLOUD LINE OVER NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS SUPPORTS
A DECENT SETUP FOR FOG LATE TONIGHT AND WILL ADD TO THE FORECAST
EVERYWHERE. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S.
FRIDAY...ONCE ANY MORNING FOG BURNS OFF...SHOULD SEE A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE UNTIL THE AFTERNOON WHEN A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. SHOULD SEE CLOUDS INCREASE THERE...BUT MOSTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
PUSH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014
NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW FORECAST BY THE MODELS FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. MILDER THAN USUAL WEATHER EXPECTED AS
THE SURFACE HIGH MOVING IN IS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INSTEAD OF
FROM CANADA. UPPER FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUES UNTIL AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE FIRST ROUND OF PRECIPITATION MAY ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY
AS A WARM FRONT AS A WARM FRONT FORMS AND MOVES NORTH FROM
ILLINOIS. LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND CONVERGENCE SHOULD GENERATE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST
ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THE LOW INTENSIFIES AND LIFTS TO THE
NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH.
COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
A BIG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPS SOUTH FROM CANADA.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1054 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. COULD BE SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG
AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER FAR EASTERN WISCONSIN WHERE SKIES WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR THOUGH ABOUT 08Z.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING WESTERN
WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT WITH A BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS TOWARD DAYBREAK
THURSDAY. SHOWERS FORECAST TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE DAY...THEN EXIT EASTERN WISCONSIN EARLY THURSDAY
EVENING. EXPECT CIGS TO GRADUALLY FALL TO MVFR TOWARD MIDDAY
THURSDAY AS SHOWERS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. DURING THE EVENING
MVFR TO IFR CIGS MAY PERSIST ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
WISCONSIN AS UPPER TROUGH PASSES OVER THE AREA. RESIDUAL BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS MAY ALSO ALLOW FOR SOME AREAS OF
FOG DURING THE EVENING AS WELL.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......ESB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
355 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014
FOR TODAY...A THE 23.00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A SHORT
WAVE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. HOWEVER AS IT DOES...THE
900 TO 800 MB FRONTOGENESIS WEAKENS AND THE 850 MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE THIS MORNING. DUE TO
THIS...KEPT THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES FOR THIS MORNING...AND THEN
DRY IT OUT QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT
DRY AIR WILL MOVE QUICKLY INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM. AS THIS OCCURS...SKIES WILL QUICKLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO
EAST. THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW THE PARTIAL SOLAR ECLIPSE TO BE
VISIBLE FOR SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND WESTERN
WISCONSIN. MEANWHILE IN CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN...THERE
ARE STILL QUESTIONS ON WHETHER THESE AREAS WILL CLEAR OUT IN TIME.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014
FROM FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING...THE 23.00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND EAST THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. THE NAM HAS THE STRONGEST WAVE AND GENERATES LIGHT RAIN
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. THE GEM GENERATES RAIN
ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN ON FRIDAY EVENING. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF
AND GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW LIMITED MOISTURE SO THEY ARE DRY. SINCE THE
ECMWF USUALLY PERFORMS THE BEST IN THIS TIME FRAME...KEPT THE
FORECAST DRY.
ON SATURDAY...850 MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO 6 TO 8C IN THE WAKE OF A
CANADIAN COLD FRONT. THESE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO COOL WITH
EACH PROGRESSIVE MODEL RUN...THUS LOWERED THE TEMPERATURES A
COUPLE MORE OF DEGREES...AND THIS MAY NOT BE ENOUGH YET. IN
ADDITION TO LOWERING TEMPERATURES...SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT A VERY DRY
AIR MASS WILL BE MOVING SOUTHWEST INTO THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE DEW POINT MIX DOWN TOOL SUGGESTS THAT THEY WILL
FALL INTO 25 TO 35 DEGREE RANGE. THIS IS ABOUT 5 TO 8 DEGREES
LOWER THAN THE MOS GUIDANCE. SINCE THE MOS TYPICALLY DOES NOT DO
WELL IN THESE SITUATIONS...WENT WITH THE LOWER DEW POINTS.
FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY MORNING...THE MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW A SERIES OF NEGATIVE TILTED SHORT WAVES MOVING OUT AHEAD
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS LONG WAVE TROUGH. THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT THAT A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THE AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT.
STRONG 300K ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS ALONG AND IN THE ADVANCE OF
THIS FRONT. PRESSURE CONDENSATION DEFICITS DROP TO LESS THAN 10 MB
ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE GFS AND GEM
GENERATE SHOWERS AS SOON AS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN IT CONTINUES
INTO MONDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF HAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON DRY
AND INTRODUCES SHOWERS CHANCES FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WITH
THIS BEING THE FIRST TIME THAT IT HAS SHOWED KEPT SUNDAY AFTERNOONDRY
AND THEN KEPT THE SHOWER CHANCES GOING FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. ALSO WITH GFS MOST UNSTABLE CAPES RUNNING BETWEEN 500 AND
1000 J/KG...KEPT AN ISOLATED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE 1 TO 7 KM SHEAR CLIMBS
ABOVE 50 KNOTS ON SUNDAY NIGHT...SO MAY HAVE TO WATCH THESE STORMS
CLOSELY FOR THE POTENTIAL OF HAIL APPROACHING QUARTERS.
FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THE LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST
INTO THE REGION. AT THE SAME TIME...A SURFACE LOW WILL BE MOVING
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. WHILE THE 0-3 KM MOST UNSTABLE CAPES
CLIMB TO AROUND 500 J/KG...THE 0-6 KM SHEAR IS LESS THAN
40 KNOTS...SO NOT CONCERNED ABOUT ANY SEVERE WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
CONFIDENCE ON HOW THE REST OF TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING IS
GOING TO PLAY OUT IS NOT VERY HIGH. THE SHOWERS TO THE WEST WITH
THE FRONT HAVE BECOME SCATTERED...WHICH HAS BEEN HANDLED QUITE
NICELY BY THE HRRR THIS EVENING. THE 23.02Z HRRR CONTINUES THIS
TREND THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING OF
MOVING THE SHOWERS STEADILY EAST BUT KEEPING THEM SCATTERED AS
OPPOSED TO THE 23.00Z NAM WHICH CONTINUES TO INSIST ON AN
INCREASING COVERAGE TREND DESPITE IT SHOWING A DECREASE IN THE
ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE AND FRONTOGENESIS WITH THE FRONT. HAVE TRENDED
TOWARD THE HRRR AND HAVE GONE WITH SOME SHOWERS BUT FOR THE MOST
PART NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS TO OCCUR.
WHAT THE CEILINGS WILL DO IS ANOTHER CONCERN. VFR CEILINGS ARE
PREDOMINANT ACROSS MINNESOTA WITH SOME MVFR CONDITIONS MIXED IN.
ALL THE MODELS STILL INSIST THAT THESE WILL GO DOWN TO IFR
OVERNIGHT BUT HAVE DOUBTS ABOUT THIS IF THERE WILL BE LESS SHOWERS
AROUND TO HELP MOISTURE THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND
HAVE OPTED TO ONLY GO DOWN TO MVFR. THESE CEILINGS SHOULD HANG ON
THROUGH THE MORNING AND THEN SCATTER OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1141 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SHRA CHANCES TONIGHT/THU...
TEMPERATURES.
18Z DATA ANALYSIS HAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER MI WITH RIDGING TO AR. LOW
PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN MAN WITH A TROUGH/FRONT SOUTH TO
THE KS/CO BORDER. THE HIGH WAS HOLDING CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF
WI/IL/EASTERN IA WHILE CLOUDS WERE INCREASING ACROSS MN/WESTERN IA
AHEAD OF A RATHER STRONG TROUGH/SHORTWAVE ENERGY SEEN IN WV IMAGERY
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS/NEB. SHRA/TSRA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
GENERALLY ALONG/BEHIND THE SFC-850MB TROUGH/FRONT IN THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS TO CENTRAL NEB.
22.12Z MODELS INITIALIZED WELL...EXCEPT GFS WITH ITS 3-5F HIGH BIAS
ON SFC DEW POINTS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/NORTHERN PLAINS. SOLUTIONS
TRENDING TOWARD A TIGHTER CONSENSUS AS THE PLAINS TROUGH AXIS MOVES
INTO WESTERN IA/MN 12Z THU...INTO EASTERN WI BY 00Z FRI THEN INTO MI
AND OH VALLEY BY 12Z FRI. LATEST TIGHTER CONSENSUS FAVORS FASTER OF
THE EARLIER RUNS WITH THE APPROACH/PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH TONIGHT
THRU THU NIGHT. SHORT-TERM FCST CONFIDENCE IS GOOD THIS CYCLE.
FOR THE SHORT TERM...BULK OF THE 500-300MB PV ADVECTION WITH THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE ENERGY/TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE WEST HALF OF
THE FCST AREA LATER TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE EAST HALF THU MORNING.
THIS WITH MDT LOWER LEVEL THERMO-DYNAMIC FORCING/ISENTROPIC LIFT
WITH/AHEAD OF THE SFC-700MB TROUGH...PW VALUES OF 1 TO 1.25
INCHES AND 85-100 PERCENT SATURATION IN THE 850-500MB LAYER.
PRESENT TIMING HAS THE STRONGEST/DEEPEST LIFT/MOISTURE MOVING
ACROSS KRST AROUND 09Z... KLSE AROUND 12Z AND KVOK AROUND 15Z.
USED THIS TO TIME 85-95 PERCENT SHRA CHANCES EAST ACROSS THE FCST
AREA...MAINLY BETWEEN 06Z AND 18Z. NAM/GFS SHOWING WEAK MUCAPE OF
UP TO 150 J/KG WHEN LIFTING 850MB PARCELS THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ADDED AN ISOLATED -TSRA MENTION BETWEEN ROUGHLY
07Z-15Z WHEN THE STRONGEST/DEEPEST OF THE LIFT PASSES. MOST
PRECIP AMOUNTS TONIGHT/EARLY THU CONTINUE TO TREND ON THE LIGHT
SIDE WITH WEAKENING 925-700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT/THETA-E
CONVERGENCE AS THE TROUGH PASSES.
WITH THE TREND TOWARD FASTER...SUBSIDENCE/DRYING AT AND ABOVE 925MB
BEHIND THE SFC-500MB TROUGH SPREADS INTO THE FCST AREA THU
AFTERNOON. LOCATIONS ALONG/WEST OF THE MS RIVER ONCE AGAIN HAVE A
CHANCE OF SEEING THE PARTIAL SOLAR ECLIPSE LATE THU AFTERNOON. WITH
ANOTHER WEAK SFC-500MB TROUGH/SHORTWAVE INTO MN/IA BY 12Z FRI...ANY
COOLING BEHIND THE THU MORNING TROUGH IS WEAK/SHORT LIVED. 925MB
TEMPS IN THE +12C TO +15C RANGE AT 12Z FRI...UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW/
WARM ADVECTION ALOFT. USED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE LOWS/HIGHS FOR
TONIGHT/THU THEN TRENDED TOWARD WARMER OF GUIDANCE LOWS FOR THU
NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
FORECAST CONCERNS FOR FRI THRU SAT NIGHT...TEMPERATURES THRU THE
PERIOD.
22.12Z MODELS CONVERGING ON A TIGHTER CONSENSUS FRI/FRI NIGHT...AS
ONE WEAK SHORTWAVE SLIDES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST FRI AND A SECOND
STRONGER WAVE DROPS TOWARD/ACROSS LK SUPERIOR FRI NIGHT. TREND IS
STRONGER WITH THE FRI NIGHT WAVE. GOOD CONSENSUS FOR THIS WAVE TO
CONTINUE QUICKLY EAST SAT AND FOR RIDGING/RISING HGTS TO BUILD
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE REGION SAT NIGHT. WITH THE GOOD
MODEL CONSENSUS THRU SAT NIGHT...FCST CONFIDENCE IN THIS PERIOD IS
GOOD THIS CYCLE.
WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION FRI HAS A MODEST SFC-700MB
TROUGH WITH IT. AHEAD OF THIS ROUGH IS A ROUND OF LOWER LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION AND MOISTURE INCREASE. FORCING/LIFT ALOFT IS WEAK AND THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING RATHER QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA. THE MOISTURE
INCREASE IS PROGGED MAINLY IN THE 925-850MB LAYER. WILL LEAVE ANY
MENTION OF -SHRA OUT OF THE GRIDS ON FRI BUT DID INCREASE THE CLOUD
COVER MUCH OF FRI INTO FRI EVENING AS THE MOISTURE AXIS PASSES.
925MB TEMPS IN THE +13C TO +17C RANGE FRI AFTERNOON. FULLY REALIZED
THESE 925MB TEMPS WOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S
ON FRI. GIVEN THE LOWER STRATO-CU CLOUD POTENTIAL...TRENDED HIGHS
MORE IN THE LOW-MID 60S FOR NOW. WAVE DROPPING ACROSS LK SUPERIOR
FRI NIGHT SENDS A ROUND OF SUBSIDENCE/ DRYING AND STRONGER LOW LEVEL
COLD ADVECTION ACROSS MN/IA/WI FRI NIGHT/SAT. WARMEST 925MB AIRMASS
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FRI EVENING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. EVEN WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...LOWS FRI NIGHT TO BE ON THE MILD SIDE WITH
SOME WINDS FOR BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AHEAD OF/BEHIND THE FRONT. SAT/
SAT NIGHT CONTINUE DRY/QUIET AS CAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. 925MB
TEMPS STILL IN THE +8C TO +12C RANGE SAT AFTERNOON...FOR ABOVE
NORMAL HIGHS. SFC RIDGE AXIS IS OVER THE AREA SAT NIGHT...WITH CLEAR
SKIES/LIGHT WINDS FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. MODEL/ENSEMBLE
CONSENSUS OF THE HIGHS/LOWS FOR FRI THRU SAT NIGHT LOOK GOOD...
THOUGH DID RAISE FRI NIGHT LOWS DEGREE OR 2 ABOVE THESE VALUES.
FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.../DAYS 4 TO 7/...
FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES LATE SUN INTO
TUE... TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD.
22.00Z AND 22.12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SUNDAY FOR
RIDGING ALOFT TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...AHEAD OF STRONGER/LONGWAVE
TROUGHING MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES. IMPROVING CONSENSUS AS THE
ROCKIES TROUGH/ENERGY MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS MON.
TREND SUN/MON LEANS TOWARD THE SLOWER THE EARLIER RUNS WITH THE
ROCKIES/PLAINS TROUGH. MODELS HAVE THE PATTERN REMAINING PROGRESSIVE
TUE...BUT PLENTY OF DETAIL DIFFERENCES AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
MID/UPPER MS VALLEY. STILL A BETTER/SLOW CONSENSUS THAN THE PREVIOUS
RUNS ON TUE. CONSIDERABLE MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE FLOW ACROSS
NOAM BY WED...WITH RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY ON THE LOW SIDE BY DAY 7.
FCST CONFIDENCE ABOVE AVERAGE SUN/MON THEN BELOW AVERAGE BY WED.
HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION SUN...SLIDING EAST OF
THE REGION SUN NIGHT. INCREASING WARM ADVECTION AND 850-700MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT SPREADING ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL MN/IA SUN
AFTERNOON THEN INCREASE ACROSS MN/IA/WI SUN NIGHT. INITIALLY A
RATHER DEEP DRY AIRMASS OVER THE AREA SUN...WITH MAINLY INCREASING
MID CLOUDS. PW VALUES INCREASE TO AN INCH OR MORE SUN NIGHT. THIS
WITH SOME MUCAPE OF 200 TO 500 J/KG IN THE INFLOW AIRMASS SUN
NIGHT...THEN MUCAPE OF 200 TO 500+ J/KG OVER THE AREA MON/MON NIGHT.
MOISTURE/LIFT CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA MON INTO TUE...BUT
DIFFERENCE WITH TIMING/TRACK OF LOWER LEVEL FEATURES AND STRONGER
FORCING BY MON...THEN WITH TIMING OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
PASSAGE TUE. DID ADD AN ISOLATED TSRA MENTION FOR SUN NIGHT THRU MON
NIGHT GIVEN THE CAPE AND WHAT SHOULD BE AT LEAST BROAD FORCING FOR
ASCENT OVER THE REGION. LINGERING -SHRA CHANCE TUE WITH THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH STILL IN THE REGION. TUE NIGHT/WED SHOULD BE A DRY/
COOLER PERIOD IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING TROUGH AND RISING HGTS OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST...HOWEVER MODELS AT ODDS WITH THE TIMING OF ONE
TROUGH EXITING AND THE NEXT ONE APPROACHING. WILL LEAVE THE MODEL/
ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS AS IS FOR TUE/WED.
SUN/MON CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD A SEASONABLY MILD PERIOD WITH 925MB
TEMPS IN THE +7C TO +11C RANGE AT 00Z MON AND +8C TO +15C RANGE AT
18Z MON...1 TO 1.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. CLOUDS/SHRA
LIKELY TO IMPACT HIGHS MON BUT BOTH SUN/MON SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION SPREADS ACROSS FOR
MON NIGHT/TUE... BUT TEMPS FOR TUE/WED LOOK TO ONLY TREND BACK
TOWARD LATE OCT NORMALS. MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS OF HIGHS/LOWS FOR
SUN THRU WED HAS THIS WELL TRENDED FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
CONFIDENCE ON HOW THE REST OF TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING IS
GOING TO PLAY OUT IS NOT VERY HIGH. THE SHOWERS TO THE WEST WITH
THE FRONT HAVE BECOME SCATTERED...WHICH HAS BEEN HANDLED QUITE
NICELY BY THE HRRR THIS EVENING. THE 23.02Z HRRR CONTINUES THIS
TREND THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING OF
MOVING THE SHOWERS STEADILY EAST BUT KEEPING THEM SCATTERED AS
OPPOSED TO THE 23.00Z NAM WHICH CONTINUES TO INSIST ON AN
INCREASING COVERAGE TREND DESPITE IT SHOWING A DECREASE IN THE
ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE AND FRONTOGENESIS WITH THE FRONT. HAVE TRENDED
TOWARD THE HRRR AND HAVE GONE WITH SOME SHOWERS BUT FOR THE MOST
PART NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS TO OCCUR.
WHAT THE CEILINGS WILL DO IS ANOTHER CONCERN. VFR CEILINGS ARE
PREDOMINANT ACROSS MINNESOTA WITH SOME MVFR CONDITIONS MIXED IN.
ALL THE MODELS STILL INSIST THAT THESE WILL GO DOWN TO IFR
OVERNIGHT BUT HAVE DOUBTS ABOUT THIS IF THERE WILL BE LESS SHOWERS
AROUND TO HELP MOISTURE THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND
HAVE OPTED TO ONLY GO DOWN TO MVFR. THESE CEILINGS SHOULD HANG ON
THROUGH THE MORNING AND THEN SCATTER OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
250 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014
DRY AND MILD WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST ALL OF THE
SHORT TERM (TNGT THRU SAT MRNG). THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO
SLOWLY BUILDING HEIGHTS AND A DOMINANT LARGE-SCALE RIDGE ACROSS
THE CNTRL CONUS. THE MAIN ITEMS OF INTEREST WILL BE GUSTY
SOUTHWEST-WEST WINDS AND RELATIVELY WARM WEATHER.
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGES AND RAP MODEL ANALYSES INDICATED A
150-KT 300-MB JET CROSSING OVER THE PACIFIC NW WITH CONSIDERABLE
MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF THE NWRN CONUS. ALTHOUGH A
THICK PATCH OF CIRRUS MOVED ACROSS THE CWA EARLIER TODAY...THE WATER
VAPOR TRAJECTORY SUGGESTS THE BULK OF THE CIRRUS WILL REMAIN NW OF
THE CWA...ESPECIALLY LATE TNGT AND FRI AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS.
UNTIL THEN...EXPECT SOME PERIODIC DENSE CIRRUS PATCHES AS THE JET
INTERACTS WITH THE MOUNTAINS. BUFKIT TIME-SECTIONS FOR KCYS SUPPORT
THIS AS WELL.
GUSTY SOUTHWEST-WINDS WILL OCCUR ESPECIALLY NEAR RIDGE TOPS TNGT AS
700-MB FLOW IS 30-45 KT FROM THE WEST WITH WEAK COLD-ADVECTION THAT
WILL PROMOTE MIXING. LOOKS TO BE JUST BELOW HIGH WIND WRNG CRITERIA
BUT IT DOES BEAR WATCHING. ALTHOUGH GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO
FRIDAY THEY SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT MUTED AS 700-MB WIND SPEEDS DECREASE
BY 5-10 KT AND THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS.
GIVEN THE UPPER RIDGE AND 700-MB TEMPS OF 7-10C ACROSS THE CWA THE
TEMPS WILL BE 15-20F ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM...AND
APPROACHING RECORD LEVELS ON FRIDAY. THE RH ALSO WILL DROP TO NEAR
15 PERCENT ACROSS THE SERN WY PLAINS ON FRI AFTN. FRI NGT WILL AGAIN
BE QUITE MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014
UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY AS
RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST OF THE CWA DURING THE DAY. HIGHS WILL
BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA DURING THE DAY.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE
SHIFTS FURTHER EAST...ALLOWING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD
FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON
SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR AND WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE...WITH CHANCES SPREADING OVER THE REST OF THE CWA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AS COLDER AIR PUSHES IN SUNDAY NIGHT...SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY OVER AT
LEAST THE SOUTH CENTRAL WY MOUNTAINS.
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A WARMUP POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK.
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1126 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
TONIGHT. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON OVER
MUCH OF SOUTHEAST WY...WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 25 AND 35 KNOTS
EXPECTED.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014
CONTINUED WARM AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS. EXPECT AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES TO FALL
INTO THE MID TO UPPER TEENS EACH AFTERNOON. FORTUNATELY...FUELS
ARE REPORTED AS GREEN FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING WHERE THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. SO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
SHOULD BE MINIMAL. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN CONSIDERABLY FROM
LATE SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY
TRACKS THROUGH THE ROCKIES.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BUNKERS/WFOUNR
LONG TERM...WFOUNR
AVIATION...WFOUNR
FIRE WEATHER...WFOUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
256 AM PDT SAT OCT 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A PACIFIC STORM WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA ON
SATURDAY BEFORE LIFTING QUICKLY NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA BY
SUNDAY MORNING. IT WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND BECOME LOCALLY STRONG
AND GUSTY NEAR THE COAST AND IN THE HILLS SATURDAY MORNING. AT THE SAME
TIME...RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. THE FRONT WILL
PASS THROUGH QUICKLY ON SATURDAY MORNING...BUT COOLER UNSTABLE AIR
WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO MUCH OF THE AREA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AS
WELL...ESPECIALLY FROM THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS NORTHWARD. DRIER
AND COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH A WARMING TREND
BEGINNING MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS ALONG THE COAST.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 02:28 AM PDT SATURDAY...
THE FORECAST FOCUS TODAY IS ON RAIN CHANCES AND PROBABILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS AND ANY SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
AS OF 09Z...A LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 40N/130W IS WELL EVIDENT
ON IR SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD TODAY...AND INTO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON BY 00Z SUN.
CURRENT RADAR SHOWS AN INITIAL BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS MOVING INTO
THE COASTAL NORTH BAY PRESENTLY. MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO BE
FOR LIGHT RAIN TO PUSH QUICKLY THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING.
TIMING IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT FROM PREVIOUS RUNS WHICH INDICATES
THAT SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE IMMEDIATE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
BY 12Z AND THE MONTEREY BAY AREA AROUND 15Z. HRRR INDICATES JUST A
QUICK SHOT...ABOUT 3-5 HOURS...OF LIGHT RAIN WITH RAPID MOVING
FRONTAL BANDS. AFTER THESE BANDS CLEAR THERE WILL BE A FEW HOURS
OF DRY WEATHER AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES WITH COLD ADVECTION
NOTED. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE BASIC INGREDIENTS NEEDED FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER
THE NORTH BAY. AN ANALYSIS OF FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWED A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH SOME SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY.
THE PROFILE REMAINS MOIST ENOUGH TO SUPPORT CONVECTION AS WELL.
THERE WILL BE A VIGOROUS WIND FIELD WITH 0-6KM SHEAR IN EXCESS OF
30KTS AND NOTED LOW LEVEL SHEAR AS WELL. IN ADDITION...A JET
STREAK WILL PASS THROUGH NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND LEAVE THE NORTH
BAY IN THE FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THE
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED HOWEVER NOTING
500 MB HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE AT THAT LEVEL.
THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT LIFT AND INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT SCATTERED
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE NORTH BAY
ESPECIALLY...WITH ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE EVEN AS FAR SOUTH AS
THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS. AGREE WITH SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK OF MARGINAL
SEVERE THREAT IN THE NORTH BAY...AND THEIR FORECAST OF POTENTIAL
LOW TOPPED SUPERCELL STRUCTURE IS REASONABLE GIVEN LOW FREEZING
HEIGHTS AND AMPLE SHEAR. NOTED FAVORABLE HODOGRAPH AS WELL TO
SUPPORT THIS FORECAST. LOW FREEZING HEIGHT WILL SUPPORT SMALL HAIL
POTENTIAL. SHEAR BECOMES MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL AFTER 21Z...AND NOTED
STORM MOTION WILL BE QUICK FROM THE SOUTHWEST. 0-6KM MEAN WIND OF
35-40KTS BY 21Z TO ALSO INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS IN
STORMS.
OTHER FACTOR OF NOTE TODAY IS WIND ADVISORY WHICH HAS BEEN
EXTENDED A FEW HOURS IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN. MARGINAL EVENT WILL
HAVE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GREATER IMPACT GIVEN THAT IT IS THE FIRST
WIND OF THE SEASON...AND DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE PRODUCED MORE DEAD
OR DYING TREES AND VEGETATION THIS YEAR. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH OR HIGHER IN THE HIGH TERRAIN AND COAST. CURRENT
GUSTS ALREADY NEAR 50 MPH IN SOME AREAS SO THIS LOOKS REASONABLE.
HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO RISE OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW EXITS THE AREA.
SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT AND DRYING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA AND
PRODUCE WARMING TEMPERATURES. BUT COOL NIGHTTIME LOWS EXPECTED IN
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE WARMING TREND. LIKELY TO SEE MANY
UPPER 30S IN THE FAVORED COOL INTERIOR VALLEYS. ESPECIALLY IN THE
NORTH BAY AND ALSO INTERIOR MONTEREY COUNTY.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 10:51 PM PDT FRIDAY...FOR 06Z TAFS. AN
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
SITUATED OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL BRING INCREASING
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT AND WET RUNWAYS BY MORNING. T-STORMS
REMAIN A CONCERT FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. LIGHT
SOUTH WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHEASTERLY AND STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT. -RA
EXPECTED AROUND 11Z TONIGHT. BY SATURDAY MORNING MODERATE AND
GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS AND WET RUNWAYS WILL IMPACT THE MORNING
TRAFFIC. WINDS EXPECTED TO VEER SOUTHWESTERLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT.
-SHRA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND 12Z-15Z SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY
MORNING SOUTHEAST WINDS AND WET RUNWAYS WILL IMPACT AREA
TERMINALS. WINDS EXPECTED TO VEER SOUTHWESTERLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 02:28 AM PDT SATURDAY...LOW PRESSURE SITUATED WEST
OF CAPE MENDOCINO WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN TONIGHT RESULTING IN
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. GALE FORCE WINDS
WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS WITH STRONG
SMALL CRAFT WINDS DEVELOPING ELSEWHERE. A LINE OF RAIN AND SHOWERS
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE NORTH OF THE GOLDEN GATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL EASE AND SHOWERS WILL END BY SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...WIND ADVISORY...NORTH BAY COAST AND MOUNTAINS
WIND ADVISORY...SAN MATEO AND SANTA CRUZ COUNTY COASTS
WIND ADVISORY...SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS
SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 3 PM
SCA...SF BAY SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 3 PM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 PM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 PM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 PM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM FROM 2 PM
GLW...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 2 PM
GLW...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM UNTIL 2 PM
GLW...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM UNTIL 2 PM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 PM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 PM
SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: JOHNSON
AVIATION/MARINE: W PI
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
149 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A SHORTWAVE DIGGING ACROSS
THE EASTERN GULF AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE
DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
OVER THE TEXAS GULF COAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH IN THE EVENING...WITH A DRAINAGE FLOW OVERNIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 903 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014/
..DRYING OUT WITH A RETURN TO SUNSHINE THIS WEEKEND...
UPDATE...A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST BUT THEY
ARE LIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE TO FADE AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE
IN FROM THE WEST. THE MIAMI SOUNDING SHOWS THAT THE PWAT HAS
FALLEN TO 1.64 INCHES AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
MAX RAINFALL AMOUNT TODAY WAS REGISTERED JUST EAST OF DOWNTOWN
HOMESTEAD...WITH A MESONET SITE REGISTERING 5.11 INCHES. SOME
MINOR STREET FLOODING WAS REPORTED IN SE MIAMI-DADE COUNTY TODAY,
BUT THE HEAVIEST RAIN STAYED JUST OFF THE COAST TO PREVENT MORE
SERIOUS FLOODING FROM OCCURRING.
A NICE WEEKEND IS IN STORE AHEAD WITH A RETURN TO SUNSHINE!
/GREGORIA
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 732 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014/
AVIATION...
BACK EDGE OF BKN/OVC CLOUDS BETWEEN 3000 AND 5000 FT ASSOCIATED
WITH LOW PRES OVER WRN BAHAMAS IS CURRENTLY CLOSE TO THE EAST
COAST TERMINAL SITES AND SHOULD CLEAR THE COAST BETWEEN 03Z-05Z.
CONDITIONS REMAINING VFR DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS.
FEW/SCT CLOUDS 3000-4000 FT EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY. WINDS THIS
EVENING NE 15-20 KT BECOMING MORE N TOWARDS DAYBREAK AND
CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY. /MOLLEDA
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014/
DISCUSSION...
THE MAJOR SYNOPTIC FEATURES INFLUENCING THE REGION INCLUDE AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH BUILDING INTO THE EASTERN GULF...A SURFACE LOW EXTENDING
ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS AND
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS. WITH STRONG
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION...OVER-RUNNING ACROSS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO GENERATE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND SOUTH FLORIDA...WITH MOST OF THE SHOWERS
CONCENTRATED ACROSS BISCAYNE BAY AND SOUTHEAST MIAMI DADE COUNTY.
THE GENERAL CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE IS FOR A DRYING TREND OVER
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF MID TO UPPER
LEVEL DRIER AIR STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE REGION...THE BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE STRAITS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD AND HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINNING TO BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEAST SHOULD ALL
CONTRIBUTE TO THE DRYING TREND. THE GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE
LATEST HRRR RUN...SEEMED A LITTLE TOO FAST IN THE DRYING TREND AND
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE SOUTHEAST
PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA IS INDICATED IN THE FORECAST THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT. BUT BY 12Z SATURDAY ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
INDICATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS WITH NO SHOWERS FOR
THE PENINSULA.
THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR THE ATLANTIC COAST BEACHES HAS BEEN
EXTENDED THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY WITH HAZARDOUS SEAS ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z
SATURDAY AND COULD LINGER A BIT LONGER...MAY HAVE TO ADJUST THE
RIP CURRENT RISK WITH UPDATED FORECAST AND CONDITIONS ON
SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE AND STABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
PREVAIL SATURDAY THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH MAINLY
CLIMATOLOGICAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS IS THROUGH
12Z SATURDAY. FOR THE GULF WATERS...THE SCA IS MAINLY FOR WINDS
ABOVE 20 KNOTS...IN THE 20 TO 22 KNOT RANGE...AND MAINLY IN THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE OFF SHORE WATERS AND THE NEAR SHORE WATERS
WEST OF MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE
WIND FORECAST...BUT REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 20 KNOTS ARE OBSERVED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA
KEYS AND WEST OF KEY WEST.
FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS...REGIONAL WINDS IN EXCESS OF 20 KNOTS ARE NOTED
THE ATLANTIC WATERS...INCLUDING BISCAYNE BAY. IN ADDITION SEAS
ABOVE ADVISORY LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO STAY ABOVE ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z SATURDAY AND FORECAST TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE
THEREAFTER.
AS CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 81 68 81 70 / 10 10 0 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 81 70 82 73 / 10 10 10 10
MIAMI 82 68 83 71 / 10 0 10 10
NAPLES 81 64 83 66 / 10 0 0 10
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR FLZ173.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR FLZ168-172-
173.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ630-650-
651-670-671.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ630.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....13/SI
AVIATION...84/AK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1258 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014
.DISCUSSION...
947 PM CDT
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH THIS EVENING. MOST AREAS WILL
REMAIN DRY...AND EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE INTO NW INDIANA AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AND EAST OF THE AREA SHORTLY THEREAFTER.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT SOME FOG TO REFORM AGAIN TONIGHT...WITH WESTERN
AREAS FAVORED DUE TO A THINNING AND LOWERING OF CLOUDS.
KMD
//PREV DISCUSSION...
304 PM CDT
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...
BROAD SURFACE HIGH STRETCHES FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON WHILE
LOW PRESSURE LIES OVER ONTARIO WITH A COLD FRONT STRETCHING INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. A NARROW RIBBON OF MOISTURE IS ANALYZED OUT AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT WITH 60 DEGREE DEWPOINTS STRETCHING NORTH INTO
NORTHERN IOWA THIS AFTERNOON...AND JUST OFF THE DECK A CORRIDOR OF
LOW/MID LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION IS DRIVING AT LEAST A FEW VERY WEAK
RADAR RETURNS OVER FAR SE MN AND NE IA. RAP/HRRR GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS
AREA PERSISTING ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS THIS EVENING WITH THE
CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS. GIVEN THE VERY SPARSE COVERAGE SO FAR
UPSTREAM AND THE DRY SOUNDINGS/LIMITED DURATION OF FORCING...NOT
BITING OFF ON PRECIP MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...BUT WILL
MAINTAIN SOME LOW END SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SINCE THERE ARE SOME
INGREDIENTS IN PLACE.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
WEAK FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY ON SATURDAY WITH DRY AIR
FILTERING BACK INTO THE REGION AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
AREA AND SUBSIDENCE SETS IN OVERHEAD. EXPECT DEW POINTS TO MIX OUT
NICELY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS
WHERE DEW POINTS MAY DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S. THE DRY
CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A NICE RESPONSE FROM DIABATIC HEATING
WHICH WILL RESULT IN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER TOMORROW.
MEANWHILE...SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
SATURDAY DIRECTLY OVERHEAD EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WHICH WILL ALLOW
FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING SUNDAY MORNING WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO
THE 30S IN OUTLYING AREAS AND SOME OF THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS.
ELSEWHERE EXPECT LOW 40S WITH DOWNTOWN CHICAGO STAYING PROPPED UP IN
THE MID 40S. TEMPERATURES MAY BE A BIT TRICKY SUNDAY WITH WARM
ADVECTION ALOFT INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
SURFACE HIGH. A COOL STARTING POINT AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE DAY WILL KEEP HIGHS ONLY INTO THE 60S SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUCKLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DIGS FROM THE PAC NW INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. BROAD SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL SHIFT EAST TOWARDS THE MIDWEST
EARLY MONDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASING OUT AHEAD AND A CORRIDOR
OF MODERATE TO STRONG MID LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION LIFTING ACROSS THE
LOCAL FORECAST AREA ON THE NOSE OF A 40KT OR SO LOW LEVEL JET.
COLUMN IS FAIRLY DRY OUT AHEAD OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE BUT A NARROW
LAYER OF SATURATION COULD TAP INTO SOME MODEST INSTABILITY ROOTED
BETWEEN H7-H9. THIS DOES POINT TO SOME CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
THOUGH CHANCES ARE BETTER TO OUR NORTH WHERE THE MUCAPE ALIGNS
BETTER WITH THE FORCING FROM THE LOW LEVEL JET. EXPECT LOWERING
CLOUDS IN THE PREDAWN HOURS AS THE SURFACE WARM FRONT APPROACHES.
THE MID LEVELS DRY OUT AGAIN AND THE MOISTURE IS FAIRLY SHALLOW SO
ANY ADDITIONAL PRECIP EARLY ON MONDAY MAY JUST BE DRIZZLE. SURFACE
WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA MID MORNING MONDAY AND EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS ONCE IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH LOW CLOUD COVER EVENTUALLY
SCATTERING. H85 TEMPS WARM TO 15-16C WITH 17C BEING THE 99TH
PERCENTILE OF UPPER AIR CLIMO FOR THE END OF OCTOBER. SURFACE HIGHS
WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL...POSSIBLY PUSHING 20F ABOVE
NORMAL...THOUGH THE RECORD HIGH SHOULD BE SAFE. LEANED HEAVILY ON
EC/ECBC FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS MONDAY FORECASTING MID 70S...WITH UPPER
70S SOUTH OF I-80. THE WARMER CONDITIONS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
STRONGER WINDS HOWEVER WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 20 TO 25 MPH AND
POSSIBLY 30 MPH AT TIMES.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
MODELS ARE INDICATING A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO
DEVELOP OVER THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A COLD FRONT SWEEPING
ACROSS THE ARE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY BRINGING CHANCES FOR
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE LOW REALLY BEGINS TO DEEPEN IN EARNEST
AS IT LIFTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO CANADA TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH DRIVING POLAR AIR SOUTH INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES
AND A COLD POLAR HIGH GRAZING THE LOCAL AREA LATE NEXT WEEK. DETAILS
STILL MURKY THIS FAR OUT BUT DOES APPEAR WE COULD BE IN FOR A BIG
COOL DOWN LATE NEXT WEEK IN TIME FOR HALLOWEEN IF CURRENT GFS/ECMWF
RUNS PAN OUT.
DEUBELBEISS
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* MVFR CIGS LIKELY OVERNIGHT...IFR CIGS A POSSIBILITY.
* MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.
* IMPROVING CIG/VIS SATURDAY MORNING.
* BREEZY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS...WITH GUSTS TO ARND 20KT.
KREIN
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
A WEAK SFC TROUGH AND MID LEVEL IMPULSE WILL CROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES JET CIRRUS AND SOME
MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVER THE AREA...BUT THE HIGHER LEVEL CLOUD IS
PUSHING EAST OF THE REGION...AND LOCATIONS THAT HAVE LOST THE
HIGHER LEVEL CLOUD COVER ARE ALREADY SEEING LOWERING STRATUS AND
FOG. ANTICIPATE THAT CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER WITH THE WRN
TERMINALS...RFD/DPA LOWERING FIRST AND THEN ORD/MDW/GYY A LITTLE
LATER. STILL HAVE SOME CONCERNS FOR IFR CIGS DEVELOPING...WITH
HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN IFR CONDITIONS AT RFD/DPA...BUT HAVE ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN IFR CIGS AT ORD/MDW/GYY TO AT LEAST INCLUDE IN A
TEMPO GROUP. THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR LIFR CIGS/VIS...ESPECIALLY
AT RFD...WHICH WILL HAVE THE LONGEST PERIOD OF TIME WITHOUT THE
HIGHER LEVEL CLOUD. ALSO...AS THE WEAK SFC TROUGH AXIS CROSSES THE
AREA...WINDS DECREASING TO BLW 5KT COULD ALSO HELP WITH DENSER FOG
DEVELOPMENT AWAY FROM THE CHICAGO AREA URBAN HEAT ISLAND.
WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE EXPECTED...CONDITIONS SHOULD QUICKLY IMPROVE
AFTER SUNRISE AND THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY SHOULD SEE VFR
CONDITIONS. THE MAIN ISSUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WILL BE
WINDS. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE WEAK SFC TROUGH...HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE NRN PLAINS WILL SET UP A STRENGTHENING
WNWLY-NWLY GRADIENT OVER THE AREA. WITH AMPLE MIXING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WINDS SHOULD BECOME MORE GUSTY...WITH GUSTS TO ARND
20KT THROUGH SUNSET.
KREIN
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS LOWERING TO MVFR OVERNIGHT. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE IN IFR CIGS DEVELOPING.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN MVFR VIS OVERNIGHT.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AND WNWLY-NWLY WINDS
SATURDAY...WITH GUSTS TO ARND 20KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
KREIN
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
SUNDAY...VFR. SLGT CHC SHRA/TSRA SUNDAY NIGHT. SE WINDS.
MONDAY...VFR BY DAY...SHRA/TSRA LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT. BREEZY
SOUTH WINDS.
TUESDAY...CHC SHRA/TSRA. MVFR POSSIBLE. SOUTHWEST-WEST WINDS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS.
RATZER
&&
.MARINE...
228 PM CDT
HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOWLY PUSHING EAST WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER
THE LAKE. A WEAK LAKE BREEZE HAS TURNED WINDS ONSHORE OVER LAKE
COUNTY IL. SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO 20-25 KT THIS EVENING WITH
OCNL 30 KT GUSTS PSBL OVER THE NORTH HALF OF THE LAKE OVERNIGHT.
WINDS TURN W 20-25 KT BEHIND THE FRONT AND SLOWLY BECOME NW SATURDAY
NIGHT. POINTS NORTH OF WILMETTE HARBOR MAY SEE OCNL GUSTS TO 25 KT
TOMORROW...BUT THINKING SUSTAINED SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE
MET. WINDS DIMINISH AS A HIGH MOVES OVER THE LAKE SUNDAY. WINDS
BECOME SOUTH BEHIND THE LOW AND THEN TURN SE AND INCREASE TO 20-25
KT AS THE NEXT LOW APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF
VARIABILITY IN THE STRENGTH AND PATH OF THE NEXT LOW SO CONFIDENCE
IS LOW IN THE EXACT WIND SPEEDS. ONE MODEL DOES FEATURE WESTERLY
GALES ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT DO NOT HAVE
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO GO THAT HIGH IN THE FORECAST JUST YET. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN MID NEXT WEEK AND WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISH WEDNESDAY.
STILL THINKING THERE IS A MARGINAL CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
TO BE MET MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON
HEADLINES FOR NOW.
JEE
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1150 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014
Dense fog advisory issued for areas west of the Illinois River. As
a shortwave trough moves off to the southeast late tonight,
clearing skies should allow good radiational cooling to resume in
a slightly moister air mass, bringing a good scenario for fog
formation. Observations of very low visibilities in fog over
eastern Iowa indicate west central Illinois should develop dense
fog overnight as the clearing sets in. Later updates may be
needed to adjust for fog coverage.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014
19z/2pm satellite imagery shows low clouds that persisted for much
of the day across west-central Illinois have finally dissipated,
with just one small patch remaining from south of Lincoln to near
Taylorville. Based on satellite trends, this patch will dissipate
over the next hour or so as well, leading to mostly clear skies late
this afternoon into the early evening. Main short-term forecast
concern will be the potential re-development of low clouds/fog
tonight as a weak trough of low pressure moves through the area.
While the overall depth of the atmosphere will be very dry, a
shallow surface-based moist layer will remain in place. With no
deep-layer moisture to work with, precip is not expected to develop
along the trough despite the NAM hinting at some overnight. As winds
become light/variable and cloud cover associated with the passing
trough begins to clear from northwest to southeast after midnight,
fog will begin to develop. HRRR is showing widespread fog once
again forming across central/eastern Iowa, then spreading into the
Illinois River Valley toward dawn. As a result, will carry areas of
fog along/west of the Illinois River, with patchy fog as far east as
Champaign/Danville. Due to cloud cover and light southerly winds,
low temperatures will be quite a bit warmer than in recent nights,
with readings remaining in the lower to middle 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Friday)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014
Saturday will start off with some morning fog, mainly N of I-70. The
fog should burn off around mid-morning, as a cold front pushes east
across IL. Some cooler air associated with the front will be mainly
confined to northern IL, with our 850mb temps still remaining the
12-14C range in the post-frontal airmass. Dry-adiabatic warming of
that layer to the surface, coupled with some sunshine should help
push high temps into the low 70s N of I-74 with upper 70s S of
I-70. NW winds will still develop behind the front, so a brief
chill may be added to the air at times.
Mid level warming will develop Saturday night into Sunday, as 850mb
temps climb toward +16C. That warm layer will linger into Monday.
Southerly winds will develop Sunday afternoon once the surface ridge
axis moves east of IL, so highs should once again climb into the 70s
across the board. On Monday, a few 80 degree readings will possible
on Monday across southwest and southeast portions of the forecast
area, which would be nearly 20 degrees above normal for late
October. Record highs for Monday are in the mid 80s and currently
appear safe.
A long wave trough is forecast to move across the northern
Plains on Monday night, with cold front progressing across IL
Tuesday morning and early afternoon. The ECMWF indicates a more
dynamic system developing in the western Great Lakes on Tuesday,
while the GFS remains a bit more progressive and less strong with
the frontal passage in our area of IL. We did maintain widespread
chance PoPs Monday night, as moisture pooling and lift still appear
to be sufficient a band of rain to affect central IL. We continued
the likely PoPs in SE Illinois for Tuesday, but chances should
diminish Tue afternoon as the main forcing for precip departs into
Indiana, and dry air quickly filters into the area aloft.
A significant cool down is agreed upon by the GFS and ECMWF for
Tuesday and Tuesday night, as 850mb temps plummet to 0 to -3C by
midday Wednesday. That will bring temps back below normal for highs
Wed, with upper 50s north of I-74, with low 60s south near
Jacksonville to Lawrenceville.
Another cold front is indicated for Thursday, with better agreement
on timing of the front between the GFS and ECMWF. Confidence is
increasing that a band of light rain showers may accompany that
front. So low chances for rain was added to the Thurs forecast,
mainly from the Illinois river to I-55.
The GFS is a about 4-5 degrees colder than the ECMWF behind the
front, with 850mb readings in the -2 to -4C range Friday afternoon.
We will continue with the cooling trend for late week. Some freezing
temps could develop for Friday night N of I-74 if the GFS scenario
pans out.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014
Mainly VFR conditions continue across central/SE Illinois late
this evening as a shortwave trough and weak cold front moves
across the region, bringing cigs just above 3 kft AGL. This
feature will move off to the east overnight, then clearing of the
cloud cover will allow fog to develop overnight. Given a similar
air mass to last night and winds expected to become light/variable
in the vicinity of the trough, vsbys between 1 and 3 miles
included for most central Illinois TAF locations, with LIFR
category included for KPIA. Gradual clearing with winds NW 8-10
kts expected after 14Z.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY from 3 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday FOR ILZ027>029-
036-040.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Onton
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Shimon
AVIATION...Onton
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
314 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014
...UPDATED FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 106 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014
A LARGE RIDGE OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
CENTRAL U.S. TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH LOTS OF CLEAR SKIES AND WARM
TEMPERATURES.
850MB TEMPS WARM TO AROUND 22 CELSIUS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AND
AFTERNOON MIXING SHOULD BRING HIGHS TO NEAR RECORDS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL
DEEPEN WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY
UPSLOPE AT 10 TO 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS UPSLOPE COMPONENT
WILL HOLD HIGHS BACK A BIT FROM YESTERDAYS HIGHS. RECORDS RUN FROM
88 AT DODGE CITY, 91 AT GARDEN CITY, AND 90 AT MEDICINE LODGE.
WILL GO WITH AROUND 85 AT DODGE, TO 86 AT GARDEN, AND 87 AT
MEDICINE LODGE. SOME STRATUS/FOG MAY FORM NEAR MEDICINE LODGE TO
PRATT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DEWPOINTS AROUND 60, BUT HRRR SHOWS
JUST EAST OF THERE.
TONIGHT THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY WITH
THE UPPER FLOW BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS WILL PUSH THE SURFACE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INTO WESTERN KANSAS LATE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTHERLY AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH CLEAR SKIES. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE MILD AND RANGE FROM UPPER 40S AROUND GARDEN CITY TO THE MID
50S AT DODGE CITY, AND UPPER 50S AT MEDICINE LODGE. THE COOLER TEMPS
IN THE WEST DUE TO THE LIGHTER WINDS NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014
ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH DEEP
MIXING OF WARM AND DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AIR EXPECTED. SURFACE WINDS
WILL BECOME WESTERLY WITH THE DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT HELPING WITH THE
WARMING. BY THE FIRST OF THE WEEK A PACIFIC ORIGIN COLD FRONT
WILL BE MOVING ACROSS MY CWA AS A STRONG S/WV THROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ALTHOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED, THERE SHOULD BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
FROM THE PASSING TROUGH (WITH THE PACIFIC ORIGINS). IF ALL PANS
OUT AS EXPECTED, THERE SHOULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF ACCENT WITH
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC JET LOCATED SOMEWHERE
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO GET AT LEAST VIRGA SHOWERS
OR SPRINKLES. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH AND DECREASING CLOUD
COVER, DRYING AIR AND DECREASING WINDS, THE MIN TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY SHOULD FALL BACK TO AT LEAST SEASONAL VALUES.
FOR THE BALANCE OF THE WEEK THERE SHOULD BE A TRANSITORY UPPER
RIDGE MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS SO THAT DRY WEATHER AND
TYPICAL LATE OCTOBER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY 10-16KT AFTER 18Z AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS IN EASTERN COLORADO. TONIGHT THE
WINDS DECREASE TO AROUND 10KT WITH DECOUPLING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 85 54 87 52 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 86 49 86 49 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 85 53 85 51 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 86 53 87 53 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 82 52 82 53 / 0 0 0 0
P28 87 59 89 59 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KRUSE
LONG TERM...HUTTON
AVIATION...KRUSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
109 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014
...UPDATED FOR SHORT TERM...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 106 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014
A LARGE RIDGE OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
CENTRAL U.S. TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH LOTS OF CLEAR SKIES AND WARM
TEMPERATURES.
850MB TEMPS WARM TO AROUND 22 CELSIUS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AND
AFTERNOON MIXING SHOULD BRING HIGHS TO NEAR RECORDS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL
DEEPEN WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY
UPSLOPE AT 10 TO 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS UPSLOPE COMPONENT
WILL HOLD HIGHS BACK A BIT FROM YESTERDAYS HIGHS. RECORDS RUN FROM
88 AT DODGE CITY, 91 AT GARDEN CITY, AND 90 AT MEDICINE LODGE.
WILL GO WITH AROUND 85 AT DODGE, TO 86 AT GARDEN, AND 87 AT
MEDICINE LODGE. SOME STRATUS/FOG MAY FORM NEAR MEDICINE LODGE TO
PRATT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DEWPOINTS AROUND 60, BUT HRRR SHOWS
JUST EAST OF THERE.
TONIGHT THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY WITH
THE UPPER FLOW BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS WILL PUSH THE SURFACE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INTO WESTERN KANSAS LATE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTHERLY AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH CLEAR SKIES. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE MILD AND RANGE FROM UPPER 40S AROUND GARDEN CITY TO THE MID
50S AT DODGE CITY, AND UPPER 50S AT MEDICINE LODGE. THE COOLER TEMPS
IN THE WEST DUE TO THE LIGHTER WINDS NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014
THE ANOMALOUSLY WARM STRETCH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE WEEKEND.
UPPER 80S APPEAR LIKELY, APPROACHING RECORD HIGHS (89F IS THE RECORD
HIGH AT DODGE CITY SUNDAY). THIS WILL BE THE LAST DAY, THOUGH, AS
THE TIMING OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL BE EARLY ENOUGH IN THE DAY TO
OFFSET WARMING FROM DIRECT INSOLATION. THE COOLER ECMWF WAS FOLLOWED
GIVEN THE EXPECTED STRONGER INITIAL COLD ADVECTION. LATE MONDAY
NIGHT, WE WILL MAINTAIN SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE 700MB
FRONT, HOWEVER THE MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AT 700MB AND THE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE MOVING QUICKLY EAST TO OUR NORTH. THE
LATEST ECMWF SUGGESTS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE MOVING SOUTHEAST
IN THE BROADER NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN LATE WEDNESDAY AND INTO
THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING BACK UP INTO
THE MID-UPPER 70S, WHICH IS REFLECTED ALREADY IN THE FORECAST.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKELY PREVAIL LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE
UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL BE DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS ARIZONA.
LIGHT WINDS AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S ARE LIKELY WITH A
NEAR-ZERO CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION MID TO LATE WEEK AS THE POLAR JET
STREAM SHIFTS WELL BACK TO THE NORTH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY 10-16KT AFTER 18Z AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS IN EASTERN COLORADO. TONIGHT THE
WINDS DECREASE TO AROUND 10KT WITH DECOUPLING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 85 54 88 54 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 86 49 86 49 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 85 53 84 49 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 86 53 87 51 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 82 52 83 51 / 0 0 0 0
P28 87 59 90 62 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KRUSE
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...KRUSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1105 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 151 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014
WITH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS THE DRY AND MILD PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS...STALLING OUT JUST NORTH/NORTHEAST OF THE CWA TOMORROW.
TODAY...MOSTLY SUNNY AND RECORD-BREAKING WARMTH. AS OF THE EARLY
AFTERNOON AT LEAST ONE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE HAS BEEN TIED AND A
FEW OTHERS ARE A FEW DEGREES SHY OF RECORD VALUES. RAP ANALYSIS
DEPICTS 850MB TEMPS ON THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE...AND MORNING
TEMPS ROSE ACCORDINGLY. SOME EARLY CLOUD COVER ALONG/EAST OF HIGHWAY
83 LIMITED HEATING THIS MORNING...BUT UNDER NEAR-FULL SUNSHINE EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON TEMPS ARE NEAR FORECAST VALUES. DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN
MARKEDLY DRIER THAN MOST ALL GUIDANCE EXCEPT FOR THE HRRR WHICH HAS
BEEN DEPICTING WHAT SEEMED THIS MORNING TO BE A VERY AGGRESSIVE DROP
IN DEW POINTS...IN THE 20S F ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. WINDS ARE
LIGHT /LESS THAN 10MPH/ SO THANKFULLY FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
NOT A CONCERN TODAY.
TONIGHT...CLOUDS CLEAR OUT BUT WARM AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE. LOW
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID/UPPER 40S...ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION. WITH DRY AIR MOVING
IN FOG IS OF NO CONCERN.
TOMORROW...SATURDAY...ANOTHER DRY AND MILD DAY. TEMPS WILL NOT BE AS
HOT AS FRIDAY AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT...850MB TEMPS IN THE LOW 20S C LEADING TO HIGHS WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AT 10-15
KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS. RECORD HIGHS MAY BE BROKEN...SEE CLIMATE
SECTION FOR DETAILS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014
NAM/SREF ARE SHOWING MOISTURE RETURN EAST OF SURFACE TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN PART OF THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WHICH
COULD LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT. NAM/SREF ARE SHOWING REDUCED VIS IN
THESE AREAS...SO I INTRODUCED PATCHY FOG MENTION OVER THE
NORTHEAST PART OF CWA.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN DECENT AGREEMENT AT LEAST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK ON THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WITH RIDGE KEEPING
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE SUNDAY...AND
A QUICK MOVING POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT.
JUST LIKE IN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...LIFT IS DECENT...HOWEVER
MOISTURE IS NOT IMPRESSIVE AND I CONSIDERED ONLY HAVING MENTION OF
SPRINKLES AND NO MEASURABLE PRECIP. THERE IS STILL A WEAK PRECIP
SIGNAL ON MOST GUIDANCE...AND I COULDNT RULE OUT A FEW LOCATIONS
GETTING A FEW HUNDREDTHS SO I LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN PLACE
MONDAY-MONDAY EVENING. AS THE SURFACE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE CWA
AND SURFACE GRADIENT INCREASES WE COULD SEE WINDY CONDITIONS
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. I TRENDED WINDS UP A LITTLE
MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT AM STILL A LITTLE LOWER THAN WHAT NAM ML
WINDS WOULD INDICATE.
SKIES SHOULD RAPIDLY CLEAR MONDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASING
WINDS...AND LOW TD VALUES IN THE 20S. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND FROST CHANCES APPEAR TO BE INCREASING. I
KEPT FORECAST IN THE 30-36F RANGE...HOWEVER I COULD SEE A FEW COLD
SPOTS DROPPING TO 28F.
PATTERN SHIFTS TO A BRIEF WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW BEFORE RIDGE
AMPLIFIES OVER THE WESTERN US...RESULTING IN NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW
OVER THE PLAINS. GUIDANCE GENERALLY SHOWING A SIMILAR
PATTERN...THOUGH THERE ARE SMALLER VARIANCES LIKELY A RESULT OF
WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES. A VERY DRY AIR MASS IS ADVERTISED...SO
EVEN IF WE DO SE DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW I DO NOT
ANTICIPATE PRECIP AND ONLY PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. TEMPS WILL TEND TO
BE JUST BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS AROUND 60F MONDAY-FRIDAY...WITH
WESTERLY FLOW SUPPORTING SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE UPPER 60S/NEAR 70
ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1102 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014
A SURFACE LEE TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE THROUGH THE DAY
ON SATURDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES FROM THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITH CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH GLD AND MCK.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL TURN SOUTHEAST BETWEEN
10-15KTS BY 19Z WITH GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AT
GLD FOLLOWED BY DECREASING WINDS AFTER 23Z AT BOTH GLD AND MCK.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...LOCKHART
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1230 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2014
.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.
&&
.AVIATION...
Main decision for tonight is whether there will be IFR fog again
this morning. Surface data indicates that dwpnts are lower (T/Td
spreads are greater) and there is less dew now than at this time
last night. HRRR model does show high RH/s toward 12Z, but not as
impressive as last nights. NAM BUFR soundings are more supportive
of IFR CIGS around 003FT, possibly as early as 10Z. As such have
opted to play the CIG card moreso than FG. Mstr will burn of quickly
before 15Z with winds on the light side.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
325 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 217 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014
DISSIPATION OF FOG AND CLOUD TRENDS THE PRIMARY FOCUS TODAY.
BEYOND THIS ATTENTION TURNS TO TEMPERATURES.
07Z NEPHANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.
AHEAD OF IT...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG CONTINUE...WHILE TO THE WEST OF
IT BETTER MIXING WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AND DRIER AIR ARE RAPIDLY
CLEARING SKIES. ONLY CAVEAT TO THIS IS BAND OF MID CLOUD REACHING
FROM MT/ND DOWN INTO SD/MN. THIS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS
MORNING.
COLD ADVECTION WILL OFFSET AMPLE SUNSHINE TODAY...WITH HIGHS
TOPPING OUT FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014
LONG WAVE RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND...SHIFTS EAST
AS A SIGNIFICANT TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY ALONG THE CONUS WEST
COAST MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST TO START
THE WEEK. INITIAL SURGE OF WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
SHOULD HELP FUEL SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL MN
INTO WI SUNDAY NIGHT. BEST CHANCES LOOK TO LIE ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE I-94 CORRIDOR. A BRIEF DRY PERIOD LOOKS LIKELY MONDAY MORNING
AS THE MAIN WARM ADVECTION WING MOVES NORTH. BUT THE COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP IN LATER MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
BE QUITE MILD IN THE WARM SECTOR...WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOWER
70S ACROSS IA AND SOUTHERN WI.
TROUGH SHIFTS EAST TUESDAY WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
ALSO MOVING THROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK TO NEAR OR EVEN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TO COMPLETE THE WEEK. IN FACT...ANOTHER
REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD AIR LOOKS TO INVADE BY FRIDAY...WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014
THE DRIER AIR FROM THE WEST HAS FINALLY BEGUN TO WORK INTO THE
AREA AS THE DEW POINT HAS DROPPED DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S AT BOTH
KTOB AND KAUM. IN RESPONSE TO THIS...THE VISIBILITY HAS COME UP TO
MVFR AT KTOB BUT HAS BEEN SLOW TO BEGIN IMPROVING ELSEWHERE. THE
25.03Z RAP AND 25.00Z NAM CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE WIND SHIFT AND
DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO KRST BY 06Z...BUT THIS SEEMS OPTIMISTIC
AND WILL HOLD ONTO THE DENSE FOG A LITTLE LONGER BEFORE FINALLY
ALLOWING THE WIND SHIFT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF VFR CONDITIONS TO
OCCUR AROUND 08Z. KLSE MAY NOT SEE MUCH OF A VISIBILITY
RESTRICTION DUE TO THE LACK OF ANY CLEARING SO EXPECT THE MVFR TO
IFR CEILINGS TO REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL ABOUT 10Z OR SO...FOLLOWED
BY VFR CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FOR THE REMAINDER
OF SATURDAY WITH LITTLE OR NO CLOUD COVER. THE NAM STILL INDICATES
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE MIXED LAYER.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
235 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 217 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014
DISSIPATION OF FOG AND CLOUD TRENDS THE PRIMARY FOCUS TODAY.
BEYOND THIS ATTENTION TURNS TO TEMPERATURES.
07Z NEPHANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.
AHEAD OF IT...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG CONTINUE...WHILE TO THE WEST OF
IT BETTER MIXING WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AND DRIER AIR ARE RAPIDLY
CLEARING SKIES. ONLY CAVEAT TO THIS IS BAND OF MID CLOUD REACHING
FROM MT/ND DOWN INTO SD/MN. THIS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS
MORNING.
COLD ADVECTION WILL OFFSET AMPLE SUNSHINE TODAY...WITH HIGHS
TOPPING OUT FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014
LONG WAVE RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND...SHIFTS EAST
AS A SIGNIFICANT TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY ALONG THE CONUS WEST
COAST MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST TO START
THE WEEK. INITIAL SURGE OF WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
SHOULD HELP FUEL SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL MN
INTO WI SUNDAY NIGHT. BEST CHANCES LOOK TO LIE ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE I-94 CORRIDOR. A BRIEF DRY PERIOD LOOKS LIKELY MONDAY MORNING
AS THE MAIN WARM ADVECTION WING MOVES NORTH. BUT THE COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP IN LATER MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
BE QUITE MILD IN THE WARM SECTOR...WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOWER
70S ACROSS IA AND SOUTHERN WI.
TROUGH SHIFTS EAST TUESDAY WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
ALSO MOVING THROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK TO NEAR OR EVEN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TO COMPLETE THE WEEK. IN FACT...ANOTHER
REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD AIR LOOKS TO INVADE BY FRIDAY...WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014
THE DRIER AIR FROM THE WEST HAS FINALLY BEGUN TO WORK INTO THE
AREA AS THE DEW POINT HAS DROPPED DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S AT BOTH
KTOB AND KAUM. IN RESPONSE TO THIS...THE VISIBILITY HAS COME UP TO
MVFR AT KTOB BUT HAS BEEN SLOW TO BEGIN IMPROVING ELSEWHERE. THE
25.03Z RAP AND 25.00Z NAM CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE WIND SHIFT AND
DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO KRST BY 06Z...BUT THIS SEEMS OPTIMISTIC
AND WILL HOLD ONTO THE DENSE FOG A LITTLE LONGER BEFORE FINALLY
ALLOWING THE WIND SHIFT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF VFR CONDITIONS TO
OCCUR AROUND 08Z. KLSE MAY NOT SEE MUCH OF A VISIBILITY
RESTRICTION DUE TO THE LACK OF ANY CLEARING SO EXPECT THE MVFR TO
IFR CEILINGS TO REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL ABOUT 10Z OR SO...FOLLOWED
BY VFR CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FOR THE REMAINDER
OF SATURDAY WITH LITTLE OR NO CLOUD COVER. THE NAM STILL INDICATES
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE MIXED LAYER.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR WIZ032.
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR MNZ079-
086>088-094>096.
IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1157 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 912 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014
DENSE FOG HAS FORMED ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA AGAIN THIS EVENING.
NOT EXPECTING THIS TO LAST THROUGH THE ENTIRE NIGHT AS A SURFACE
TROUGH IS SLOWLY APPROACHING THE WESTERN AREA. ONCE THIS COMES
IN...THE WINDS WILL GO AROUND TO THE WEST WITH DRIER AIR COMING IN
AS WELL. UNTIL THIS HAPPENS THOUGH...THE VISIBILITY WILL BE DOWN
TO A QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES. UNCERTAIN ON HOW FAR EAST TO
BRING THE ADVISORY AS THE 25.00Z HRRR DOES NOT SUGGEST THE LOW
VISIBILITIES WILL LAST VERY LONG FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...LOW CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG/DZ THIS
EVENING...TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD.
18Z DATA ANALYSIS HAD A SFC TROUGH/FRONT ACROSS WESTERN MN/WESTERN
IA...MAKING STEADY PROGRESS EAST. VERY MOIST LOW LEVEL AIRMASS IN
PLACE AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH/FRONT. FOG PERSISTING ACROSS MUCH OF
WI/IA HOWEVER VSBYS WERE SLOWLY IMPROVING. SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW/
WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE TROUGH SPREADING LOW CLOUDS/FOG FROM
CENTRAL IA BACK INTO THE FCST AREA. WV IMAGERY SHOWED ONE SHORTWAVE
DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO IL AND A MORE VIGOROUS ONE MOVING EAST NEAR
LK WINNIPEG.
NO MAJOR PROBLEMS NOTED WITH 24.12Z MODEL INITIALIZATIONS. GFS A
LITTLE HIGH WITH SFC DEW POINTS ACROSS IA/SOUTHERN MN BUT NOT OFF AS
MUCH AS IT TYPICALLY IS. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS THE SHORTWAVE
NEAR LK WINNIPEG EARLY THIS AFTERNOON TRACKS MAINLY NORTH OF LK
SUPERIOR TONIGHT THEN AS THE BULK OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKS
INTO QUEBEC BY LATE SAT. STRONGER HGT RISES STILL PROGGED SAT NIGHT
WITH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS TO THE MN/DAKOTAS BORDER BY 12Z SUN.
MODEL TREND TONIGHT THRU SAT NIGHT FAVORS FASTER OF EARLIER RUNS
WITH FEATURES AND MORE NORTHERLY WITH THE SHORTWAVE TRACK. SHORT-
TERM FCST CONFIDENCE IS GOOD THIS CYCLE.
IN THE SHORT TERM...MOIST LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE SFC-
850MB TROUGH CONTINUES ACROSS THE FCST AREA INTO THIS EVENING...WITH
LOWER STRATUS CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG PERSISTING. BY MIDNIGHT THE
SHORTWAVE TRACKING NORTH OF LK SUPERIOR PUSHES THE SFC-850MB TROUGH/
FRONT SOUTH/EAST OF THE FCST AREA. INCREASING NORTHWEST FLOW/COLD
ADVECTION/SUBSIDENCE/DRYING IN THIS LAYER SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA
BEHIND THIS TROUGH/FRONT DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS. TRENDED CLOUDS AND ANY PATCHY FOG/DZ DOWN/OUT DURING THE
EVENING INTO EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. GRADIENT NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONT TO KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER STIRRED LATE TONIGHT AND LOWS
ONCE AGAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL. A DEEP...DRY AIRMASS AND BROAD DEEP
LAYERED SUBSIDENCE SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA FOR SAT/SAT NIGHT AS HGTS
ALOFT SLOWLY RISE AND CAN HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION. 925MB TEMPS IN THE +9C TO +13C RANGE SAT AFTERNOON EVEN WITH
THE LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION. MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL SHOWING MIXING TO
AROUND 900MB SAT AFTERNOON...WITH 20-25KTS OF WIND IN THE TOP OF
THE MIXED LAYER. RAISED SAT AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS IN THE FCST GRIDS.
SFC RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SAT NIGHT...FOR DECOUPLED WINDS
AND STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER THE DEEP DRY AIRMASS/MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. AFTER SAT HIGHS 4F TO 8F ABOVE NORMAL...LOWS SAT NIGHT
LOOKING TO DIP TO NEAR/BELOW NORMAL. USED A BLEND OF THE NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE LOWS/HIGHS FOR TONIGHT THRU SAT NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014
FORECAST CONCERNS FOR SUNDAY THRU MON NIGHT...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES SUN
NIGHT THRU MON NIGHT...TEMPERATURES.
24.12Z MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SUN AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AND TROUGHING DIGS INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
ROCKIES. RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA SUN NIGHT AS THE TROUGH
PROGRESSES THRU THE ROCKIES...WITH THE AREA UNDER INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. TREND SUN/SUN NIGHT IS LESS DIGGING OF THE
TROUGH THRU THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. TIGHTER CONSENSUS MON AS THE TROUGH
LIFTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS. TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH
THE TROUGH MON NIGHT AS IT LIFTS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST....BUT
THESE SMALLER THAN THE EARLIER RUNS. TREND MON/MON NIGHT IS TOWARD
A COMPROMISE ON STRENGTH/TIMING OF EARLIER RUNS. FCST CONFIDENCE
FOR SUN THRU MON NIGHT IS AVERAGE TO GOOD THIS CYCLE.
SFC-850MB LOW/TROUGH WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES
MOVES QUICKLY INTO CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS SUN. INCREASING SOUTHEAST
TO SOUTHWEST MDT/STRONG WARM ADVECTION FLOW BETWEEN THIS TROUGH AND
THE RETREATING SFC HIGH/RIDGE AXIS SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION.
QUESTION IS HOW QUICKLY DOES THE INCREASING MOISTURE ARRIVE. 925-
700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT SPREADS INTO THE FCST AREA SUN AFTERNOON
BUT INITIALLY A VERY DRY AIRMASS TO SATURATE AS IT DOES. 925-850MB
MOISTENS WEST OF THE MS RIVER SUN AFTERNOON WHILE MORE 850-700MB
SATURATION OCCURS EAST OF THE MS RIVER. BULK OF WARM ADVECTION
INITIALLY GOES INTO WARMING WITH SOME INCREASE OF UPWARD MOTION
INDICATED LATE SUN AFTERNOON. MAY YET NEED A SMALL -SHRA CHANCE LATE
SUN AFTERNOON BUT LEFT IT DRY FOR NOW. LIFT CONTINUES TO INCREASE
SUN NIGHT AS THE SFC-850MB TROUGH/FRONT APPROACH AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT
AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH SPREADS INTO THE REGION. MODELS NOW
INDICATING SOMEWHAT LESS MOISTURE TO ADVECT INTO/OVER THE AREA SUN
NIGHT...MAINLY BELOW 800MB WITH RATHER DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE
800- 500MB LAYER. STRONGEST FORCING/LIFT PROGGED OVER THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FCST AREA...NORTHEAST OF A WARM FRONT
ADVANCING ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS DO STILL PROG AT LEAST 250-500
J/KG OF MUCAPE ACROSS THE AREA SUN NIGHT. 20-50 PERCENT
SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA CHANCES PER THE MODEL CONSENSUS...HIGHEST
ALONG/NORTHEAST OF I-94 STILL LOOK GOOD SUN NIGHT. MOISTURE NOW
PROGGED TO DECREASE ACROSS THE AREA AS THE 925-700MB TROUGH PASSES
AND THE FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY IN THAT LAYER. GIVEN THE SFC
LOW/FRONTS IN THE AREA AND AREA AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH...AND SOME WEAK MUCAPE OVER THE AREA... CONTINUED A SMALL
-SHRA/TSRA CHANCE MON. MONDAY COULD END UP MORE SUN THAN CLOUD
UNDER THE MID LEVEL DRY PUNCH...WITH 925MB TEMPS SUPPORTING HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 60S-MID 70S ACROSS THE AREA. STRONGER MID/UPPER LEVEL
FORCING/DIVERGENCE/LIFT SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA MON NIGHT AS THE
MID LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS INTO THE REGION. DEEPER SATURATION TO
700MB INDICATED ALONG WITH SOME WEAK MUCAPE. SHRA CHANCES IN THE
30-50 PERCENT RANGE WITH ISOLATED TSRA REASONABLE. MODEL/ENSEMBLE
CONSENSUS HAS HIGHS/LOWS FOR SUN THRU MON NIGHT WELL TRENDED FOR
NOW.
FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.../DAYS 4 TO 7/...
FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...LINGERING -SHRA TUE...SHRA CHANCES
WITH NEXT SYSTEM WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT...TEMPERATURES.
24.00Z/24.12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS IN DECENT AGREEMENT TUE FOR
THE MAIN TROUGH/SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST. REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR HGTS TO FALL ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WED WITH THE NEXT TROUGH/SHORTWAVE ENERGY...THEN FOR
THIS TROUGH/ENERGY TO MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THU AND RIDGING
TO BUILD INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS FRI. GIVEN REASONABLE BETWEEN
MODEL AND RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY...CONFIDENCE IN THE DAY 4-7
PERIOD IS AVERAGE TO GOOD THIS CYCLE.
BY TUE...MODELS HAVE THE SFC LOW WITH THE TROUGH OVER LK SUPERIOR...
THE SFC-850MB TROUGH/COLD FRONT WELL EAST OF THE AREA AND LOW LEVEL
COLD ADVECTION SPREADING ACROSS MN/IA/WI. APPEARS ANY LINGERING
-SHRA CHANCES TUE ARE NOW IN THE MORNING AND OVER THE NORTHEAST END
OF THE FCST AREA. MORE SEASONABLE AIRMASS SPREADS IN TUE WITH 925MB
TEMPS BY 00Z WED IN THE +3C TO +7C RANGE. SOME LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION RETURNS WED AS THE NEXT LOW ADVANCES INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THIS NEXT LOW/TROUGH
APPEARS LIMITED BUT WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH/SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO
DROP ACROSS THE REGION...SMALL -SHRA CHANCE WED NIGHT/THU PER THE
MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS OKAY FOR NOW. SMALL LINGERING PRECIP
CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST END OF THE FCST AREA THU NIGHT...WHEN
COLUMN WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT PRECIP TYPE AS -RA/-SN OR
-SN. COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
ON TRACK TO BUILD IN TO END THE WEEK. FOR NOW...A CHILLY BUT DRY
EVENING IS IN STORE FOR THE TRICK-OR-TREATERS. MODEL/ENSEMBLE
CONSENSUS OF THE HIGHS/LOWS FOR TUE THRU FRI APPEARS WELL TRENDED
AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014
THE DRIER AIR FROM THE WEST HAS FINALLY BEGUN TO WORK INTO THE
AREA AS THE DEW POINT HAS DROPPED DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S AT BOTH
KTOB AND KAUM. IN RESPONSE TO THIS...THE VISIBILITY HAS COME UP TO
MVFR AT KTOB BUT HAS BEEN SLOW TO BEGIN IMPROVING ELSEWHERE. THE
25.03Z RAP AND 25.00Z NAM CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE WIND SHIFT AND
DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO KRST BY 06Z...BUT THIS SEEMS OPTIMISTIC
AND WILL HOLD ONTO THE DENSE FOG A LITTLE LONGER BEFORE FINALLY
ALLOWING THE WIND SHIFT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF VFR CONDITIONS TO
OCCUR AROUND 08Z. KLSE MAY NOT SEE MUCH OF A VISIBILITY
RESTRICTION DUE TO THE LACK OF ANY CLEARING SO EXPECT THE MVFR TO
IFR CEILINGS TO REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL ABOUT 10Z OR SO...FOLLOWED
BY VFR CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FOR THE REMAINDER
OF SATURDAY WITH LITTLE OR NO CLOUD COVER. THE NAM STILL INDICATES
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE MIXED LAYER.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR WIZ032.
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR MNZ079-086>088-
094>096.
IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR IAZ008>011-018-
019-029-030.
&&
$$
UPDATE...04
SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
442 AM PDT SAT OCT 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A PACIFIC STORM WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA ON
SATURDAY BEFORE LIFTING QUICKLY NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA BY
SUNDAY MORNING. IT WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND BECOME LOCALLY STRONG
AND GUSTY NEAR THE COAST AND IN THE HILLS SATURDAY MORNING. AT THE SAME
TIME...RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. THE FRONT WILL
PASS THROUGH QUICKLY ON SATURDAY MORNING...BUT COOLER UNSTABLE AIR
WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO MUCH OF THE AREA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AS
WELL...ESPECIALLY FROM THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS NORTHWARD. DRIER
AND COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH A WARMING TREND
BEGINNING MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS ALONG THE COAST.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 02:28 AM PDT SATURDAY...
THE FORECAST FOCUS TODAY IS ON RAIN CHANCES AND PROBABILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS AND ANY SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
AS OF 09Z...A LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 40N/130W IS WELL EVIDENT
ON IR SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD TODAY...AND INTO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON BY 00Z SUN.
CURRENT RADAR SHOWS AN INITIAL BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS MOVING INTO
THE COASTAL NORTH BAY PRESENTLY. MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO BE
FOR LIGHT RAIN TO PUSH QUICKLY THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING.
TIMING IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT FROM PREVIOUS RUNS WHICH INDICATES
THAT SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE IMMEDIATE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
BY 12Z AND THE MONTEREY BAY AREA AROUND 15Z. HRRR INDICATES JUST A
QUICK SHOT...ABOUT 3-5 HOURS...OF LIGHT RAIN WITH RAPID MOVING
FRONTAL BANDS. AFTER THESE BANDS CLEAR THERE WILL BE A FEW HOURS
OF DRY WEATHER AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES WITH COLD ADVECTION
NOTED. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE BASIC INGREDIENTS NEEDED FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER
THE NORTH BAY. AN ANALYSIS OF FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWED A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH SOME SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY.
THE PROFILE REMAINS MOIST ENOUGH TO SUPPORT CONVECTION AS WELL.
THERE WILL BE A VIGOROUS WIND FIELD WITH 0-6KM SHEAR IN EXCESS OF
30KTS AND NOTED LOW LEVEL SHEAR AS WELL. IN ADDITION...A JET
STREAK WILL PASS THROUGH NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND LEAVE THE NORTH
BAY IN THE FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THE
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED HOWEVER NOTING
500 MB HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE AT THAT LEVEL.
THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT LIFT AND INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT SCATTERED
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE NORTH BAY
ESPECIALLY...WITH ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE EVEN AS FAR SOUTH AS
THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS. AGREE WITH SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK OF MARGINAL
SEVERE THREAT IN THE NORTH BAY...AND THEIR FORECAST OF POTENTIAL
LOW TOPPED SUPERCELL STRUCTURE IS REASONABLE GIVEN LOW FREEZING
HEIGHTS AND AMPLE SHEAR. NOTED FAVORABLE HODOGRAPH AS WELL TO
SUPPORT THIS FORECAST. LOW FREEZING HEIGHT WILL SUPPORT SMALL HAIL
POTENTIAL. SHEAR BECOMES MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL AFTER 21Z...AND NOTED
STORM MOTION WILL BE QUICK FROM THE SOUTHWEST. 0-6KM MEAN WIND OF
35-40KTS BY 21Z TO ALSO INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS IN
STORMS.
OTHER FACTOR OF NOTE TODAY IS WIND ADVISORY WHICH HAS BEEN
EXTENDED A FEW HOURS IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN. MARGINAL EVENT WILL
HAVE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GREATER IMPACT GIVEN THAT IT IS THE FIRST
WIND OF THE SEASON...AND DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE PRODUCED MORE DEAD
OR DYING TREES AND VEGETATION THIS YEAR. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH OR HIGHER IN THE HIGH TERRAIN AND COAST. CURRENT
GUSTS ALREADY NEAR 50 MPH IN SOME AREAS SO THIS LOOKS REASONABLE.
HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO RISE OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW EXITS THE AREA.
SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT AND DRYING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA AND
PRODUCE WARMING TEMPERATURES. BUT COOL NIGHTTIME LOWS EXPECTED IN
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE WARMING TREND. LIKELY TO SEE MANY
UPPER 30S IN THE FAVORED COOL INTERIOR VALLEYS. ESPECIALLY IN THE
NORTH BAY AND ALSO INTERIOR MONTEREY COUNTY.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 4:45 AM PDT SATURDAY...RAIN AND MVFR CIGS MOVING
INTO THE AREA WITH STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS BLOWING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED IN THE SFO BAY AREA AROUND 16Z
WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL KEEP A THREAT OF SHOWERS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN STS. WINDS
WILL SWITCH TO THE WEST AFTER 02Z IN MOST AREAS.
VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR THROUGH 21Z. LIGHT RAIN TURNING TO SHOWERS
AFTER 16Z. CIGS RISING INTO VFR RANGE AFTER 21Z. SHOWERS ENDING
WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST AFTER 02Z.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...CIGS COULD LOWER TO MVFR RANGE AFTER
14Z AS RAIN SHOWERS MOVE INTO THE MRY BAY AREA. STRONGEST
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE IN THE SALINAS VALLEYS WITH WINDS TO 20
KT. WINDS EXPECTED TO SWITCH TO SOUTHWESTERLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 02:28 AM PDT SATURDAY...LOW PRESSURE SITUATED WEST
OF CAPE MENDOCINO WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN TONIGHT RESULTING IN
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. GALE FORCE WINDS
WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS WITH STRONG
SMALL CRAFT WINDS DEVELOPING ELSEWHERE. A LINE OF RAIN AND SHOWERS
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE NORTH OF THE GOLDEN GATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL EASE AND SHOWERS WILL END BY SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...WIND ADVISORY...NORTH BAY COAST AND MOUNTAINS
WIND ADVISORY...SAN MATEO AND SANTA CRUZ COUNTY COASTS
WIND ADVISORY...SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS
SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 3 PM
SCA...SF BAY SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 3 PM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 PM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 PM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 PM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 PM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 PM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM FROM 2 PM
GLW...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 2 PM
GLW...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM UNTIL 2 PM
GLW...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM UNTIL 2 PM
SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: JOHNSON
AVIATION/MARINE: W PI
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1043 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014
.DISCUSSION...
314 AM CDT
SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING...THE INITIAL
CONCERNS WILL BE CLOUD COVER...AND IMPACTS ON VISIBILITY. A WEAK
MID LEVEL IMPULSE THAT TRACKED ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY EVENING
BROUGHT SOME SCT SPRINKLES. AS THE MID AND HIGH CLOUD PUSHES AWAY
FROM THE AREA...FOG AND LOW STRATUS ARE BLOOMING. NWRN IL AND ERN
IA HAVE ALREADY SEEN DENSE FOG AND LOW STRATUS FORM...AND IN THE
MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 50S...EXPECT THAT
THE AREA OF FOG/STRATUS SHOULD INCREASE...THOUGH THE LOWEST
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-39 CORRIDOR. EAST OF
I-39...ANY DENSE FOG SHOULD BE LIMITED TO SHELTERED...LOW-LYING
AREAS.
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE
AREA...WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS WHILE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ALSO BUILDS OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THE UPPER RIDGING WILL SET UP A SUBSIDENCE PATTERN
ACROSS THE AREA...LEADING TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. LOW PRESSURE
MOVING THROUGH SERN CANADA...COMBINED WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE PLAINS WILL SET UP A GENERALLY NWLY GRADIENT ACROSS NRN IL/IN.
DAYTIME WARMING SHOULD ALLOW ANY RESIDUAL FOG/STRATUS TO DISSIPATE
BY LATE MORNING...WHILE THE AMPLE SUNSHINE AND LARGER SCALE
SUBSIDENCE SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY RISE INTO THE LOWER
70S ACROSS THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WHILE LOCATION CLOSER TO
THE WI BORDER WILL BE A BIT COOLER...BUT STILL SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER
THAN NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. STEADY NWLY WINDS AT THE
SFC AND ALOFT SHOULD PREVENT ANY KIND OF LAKE BREEZE FROM FORMING
AND THE WARMER AIR SHOULD COVER THE AREA UP TO THE LAKEFRONT. WHILE
DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE 50S FOR THE MORNING HOURS...DEEP MIXING
SHOULD DRAW MUCH DRIER AIR TO THE SFC...WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO
THE UPPER 30S FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SO...OVERALL...SATURDAY IS
SHAPING UP TO A VERY PLEASANT DAY...WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE MIDWEST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WHILE THE
UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY PROGRESSES AS WELL. WITH A DRIER AIRMASS IN
PLACE TONIGHT...THE CHANCES FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG AND STRATUS IS
UNLIKELY...THROUGH THE CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND LOWER DEWPOINTS
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RADIATE DOWN INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S. THE CHICAGO AREA URBAN HEAT ISLAND SHOULD REMAIN A
LITTLE WARMER...WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 40S.
KREIN
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN RELATIVELY CONSISTENT IN THE MEDIUM TERM FEATURING
MID-LVL RIDGING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION WITH A SFC
RIDGE PROVIDING ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND DRY CONDS FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER THIS RIDGE WILL ONLY BE TEMPORARY AS THE
MID-LVL HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL AND A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW BEGINS TO SETUP
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. FORTUNATELY IT REMAINS LIKELY THAT MON WILL
REMAIN DRY...WITH VERY MILD TEMPS EXPECTED. THE SFC RIDGE WILL BE
SHIFTING EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT SHOULD CONTINUE TO KEEP
CLOUDS TO A MINIMUM AND PRECIP WEST OF THE AREA. THE COMBINATION OF
THIS AND AN ANOMALOUS THERMAL RIDGE WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO SOAR INTO
THE MID/UPR 70S...WITH A FEW 80 DEGREE READINGS IN THE SOUTHERN CWFA
MON AFTN.
BROAD SFC TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SLOWLY
CONSOLIDATE AS THIS FEATURE NEARS THE GREAT LAKES MON EVE. THERE IS
A SMALL CHANCE THAT A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD SKIRT THE
NORTHERN CWFA MON AFTN...BUT EXPECT THE BULK OF THE PRECIP TO OCCUR
POST SUNSET. MID-LVL TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TUE MORNING...AS THE SFC LOW DEEPENS ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN. HAVE
HELD ONTO THE MENTION OF THUNDER INTO TUE MORNING...AS IT APPEARS
SOME INSTABILITY/FORCING WILL CONTINUE. MON NGT TEMPS WILL LIKELY
NOT FALL MUCH...PRODUCING A MILD OVERNIGHT. THEN FOR TUE WITH
CONTINUED CLOUD COVER/PRECIP...EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN IN THE UPR
50S/LOW 60S. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE FROPA TUE...TEMPS COULD
BEGIN TO FALL TUE AFTN INTO THE LOW 50S.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK IT APPEARS THE PATTERN WILL BE
TRANSITIONING TOWARDS A COOLER AND SOMEWHAT ACTIVE SETUP. ENSEMBLES
CONTINUE TO PROG MID-LVL RIDGING DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS...ALLOWING BROAD TROUGHING DOWNSTREAM FOR THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WED/THUR. THEN FRI THE 500MB RIDGE MAY BEGIN TO FURTHER
AMPLIFY AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO APPROACH THE PAC-NW AND
RIDGING REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC. TROUGHING WILL LINGER
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRI. TEMPS WILL TREND BACK TOWARDS
SEASONAL...WITH PERHAPS FRI BEING SUB-SEASONAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPR
40S/LOW 50S. PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED
TIMEFRAME.
BEACHLER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...
* GUSTY NW WINDS WITH GUSTS 20-24 KT.
JEE
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
A WEAK SFC TROUGH AND MID LEVEL IMPULSE HAVE PASSED EAST OF THE
REGION...CLEARING OUT THE MID AND HIGH CLOUD. RESIDUAL MOISTURE
HAS ALLOWED FOG AND LOW STRATUS TO DEVELOP...DROPPING CIGS/VIS
INTO IFR RANGES...WITH THE LOWEST CONDITIONS OVER THE RFD AREA
WHICH CLEARED FIRST. THE STRATUS AND FOG WILL BURN OFF BY ARND 14Z
AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION. THE MAIN ISSUE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY WILL BE WINDS. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE
WEAK SFC TROUGH...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE NRN PLAINS WILL
SET UP A STRENGTHENING WNWLY-NWLY GRADIENT OVER THE AREA. WITH
AMPLE MIXING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WINDS SHOULD BECOME MORE
GUSTY...WITH GUSTS TO OR SLIGHTLY IN EXCESS OF 20KT THROUGH SUNSET.
KREIN
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL FORECAST ELEMENTS.
JEE
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
MONDAY...VFR/WX NIL BY DAY...SHRA/TSRA LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT. BREEZY
SOUTH WINDS.
TUESDAY...CHC SHRA/TSRA EARLY. MVFR POSSIBLE EARLY. WEST WINDS.
WEDNESDAY...VFR/WX NIL. WEST WINDS DAYTIME...BECMG SLY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
THURSDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA DAYTIME. VFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS
VEERING TO NLY BY EARLY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
FRIDAY...VFR/WX NIL. NORTH WINDS.
KREIN
&&
.MARINE...
229 AM CDT
LOW PRESSURE OVER JAMES BAY ALONG WITH A SFC RIDGE CENTERED OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS HAS CREATED A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE TWO SYSTEMS...WHICH IS POSITIONED OVER THE LAKE. THIS HAS
RESULTED IN BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER THE LAKE WITH SPEEDS
GENERALLY BETWEEN 20-25KT. ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE
THE GUSTS MAY NEAR 30 KT THIS MORNING. AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST ACROSS THE LAKE...WIND WILL TURN
WEST/NORTHWEST AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUN. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE LAKE SUN...THEN CONTINUE TO
SLIDE EAST BY LATE SUN NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW ONLY A TEMPORARY
LULL IN THE WINDS...BEFORE WINDS TURN SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AND BEGIN TO
INCREASE. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE IS POISED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST
TOWARDS LAKE MICHIGAN MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUE. THIS LOW WILL THEN
DEEPEN TUE AFTERNOON AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN.
THIS COULD PRODUCE A PERIOD OF WEST GALES TUE NGT/EARLY WED...THEN
ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE WESTERN LAKES
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
BEACHLER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745...4 PM SATURDAY TO
10 AM SUNDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 5 PM SATURDAY.
&&
$$
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[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
915 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 915 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014
Dense fog has once again developed across west-central Illinois
this morning, with 14z/9am obs showing visibilities of 1/4 mile or
less along/northwest of a Jacksonville to Bloomington line. Weak
cold front is approaching the I-55 corridor: however, the drier
airmass lags well behind the boundary across central/northern
Iowa. Dry advection will eventually help erode the northern edge
of the fog area, while the rising sun will help get rid of the fog
as well. With dry air only slowly trickling in, think fog will
stick around until mid to late morning, much like what happened
yesterday morning. As a result, have extended the Dense Fog
Advisory until midday. Have also expanded it southeastward to
include Bloomington-Normal and Jacksonville. Once drier air
arrives and sun angle gets higher, fog/low clouds will rapidly
dissipate between 16z and 17z, followed by sunny skies for the
balance of the day. Further east, mostly sunny conditions will
prevail for the entire day across east-central and southeast
Illinois. High temperatures will climb well into the 70s across
the board. Forecast update has already been issued.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014
Main concern in the short term will be the dense fog again early
this morning, mainly in the northwestern parts of the CWA. Unlike
last night, the dense fog has not developed yet in the CWA and is
still located along and west of the Mississippi River. However, HRRR
model still forecast dense fog to move into the area. So will
continue the dense fog advisory as is, and will not extend in time or
area. Fog will be in areas east of the Illinois river, but not
dense. After the fog dissipates this morning, mostly clear skies
will be the rule for the area. Should be lots of sunshine to allow
temps to rise into the lower to middle 70s by this afternoon, which
is well above normal for the later part of October. Northwest winds
will only bring in a drier airmass for the day and beyond.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014
1020 mb high pressure over over the northern High Plains, near the
eastern MT and western Dakotas border, to settle into IL by
sunrise Sunday and weaken a bit to 1018 mb, then drift into
eastern KY by sunset Sunday. This will continue fair weather
through Sunday night. 850 mb temps cool to 12-14C tonight into
Sunday morning before rising back up to 14-16C by sunset Sunday.
Lows mostly in the middle 40s tonight (fog limited overnight
tonight over central IL with drier air advecting in). Highs
Sunday mostly 70-75F, except upper 60s to near 70F from I-74
northeast.
Strong low pressure of 1000 mb to eject ne from western KS Sunday
evening into Lake MI Monday night and bring a cold front east across
IL overnight Monday night and across the Wabash river valley in
eastern IL Tue morning. Breezy ssw winds Monday ahead of this storm
system to bring in warm air with highs approaching 80F. Have a
slight chance of showers and thunderstorms late Monday afternoon
far NW CWA by Galesburg. Best chances of showers and isolated
thunderstorms spread east across IL during Monday night (mainly
after midnight Monday night in eastern IL) and Tue morning, then
diminish Tue afternoon from the west. Highs Tue range from lower 60s
from I-55 nw to upper 60s to around 70F from I-70 se. Temperatures
steady or slowly falling Tue afternoon behind the cold front. Slight
chance of showers early Tue evening near the Wabash river, otherwise
dry weather returns Tue night through Wed night as another high
pressure system settles over IL by Wed afternoon. Near normal highs
Wed/Thu in the upper 50s/lower 60s.
A weak northern stream short wave to dive se into upper level trof
over the eastern states and bring another cold front into IL by Thu
afternoon/evening. Have just slight chance of showers Thu due to
limited moisture. ECMWF model shows strong cutoff upper level low
near IL on Halloween along with showers, but other models like GFS
are drier. Models due agree that even colder air arrives on
Halloween with highs in the lower 50s central IL and mid 50s se of
I-70, while low temperatures near freezing next Friday night over
central IL and mid 30s in southeast IL.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014
Difficult part of the forecast will be dense fog and lower IFR
clouds this morning and what time it will dissipate. HRRR keeps
the lower vis along the IL river and to the northwest. So, PIA
will be the only site effected by dense fog. However, other sites
will also have some light fog during the first 2-3hrs of the
morning. IFR and MVFR clouds are also advecting into the area from
the northwest and will effect the other sites early this morning,
before the sunshine burns them off. HRRR is keeps lower clouds in
the area til later this morning. Not sure if I agree with this
forecast, so have skies scattering out and then clearing at all
sites between 15 and 17z. Then clear skies will prevail for
remainder of TAF period, as high pressure builds into the area
with lower dewpoints and northwest winds at 5-10kts.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY until Noon CDT today FOR ILZ027>031-036>038-
040-041-047>050.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Barnes
SHORT TERM...Auten
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Auten
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
651 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014
.DISCUSSION...
314 AM CDT
SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING...THE INITIAL
CONCERNS WILL BE CLOUD COVER...AND IMPACTS ON VISIBILITY. A WEAK
MID LEVEL IMPULSE THAT TRACKED ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY EVENING
BROUGHT SOME SCT SPRINKLES. AS THE MID AND HIGH CLOUD PUSHES AWAY
FROM THE AREA...FOG AND LOW STRATUS ARE BLOOMING. NWRN IL AND ERN
IA HAVE ALREADY SEEN DENSE FOG AND LOW STRATUS FORM...AND IN THE
MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 50S...EXPECT THAT
THE AREA OF FOG/STRATUS SHOULD INCREASE...THOUGH THE LOWEST
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-39 CORRIDOR. EAST OF
I-39...ANY DENSE FOG SHOULD BE LIMITED TO SHELTERED...LOW-LYING
AREAS.
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE
AREA...WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS WHILE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ALSO BUILDS OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THE UPPER RIDGING WILL SET UP A SUBSIDENCE PATTERN
ACROSS THE AREA...LEADING TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. LOW PRESSURE
MOVING THROUGH SERN CANADA...COMBINED WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE PLAINS WILL SET UP A GENERALLY NWLY GRADIENT ACROSS NRN IL/IN.
DAYTIME WARMING SHOULD ALLOW ANY RESIDUAL FOG/STRATUS TO DISSIPATE
BY LATE MORNING...WHILE THE AMPLE SUNSHINE AND LARGER SCALE
SUBSIDENCE SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY RISE INTO THE LOWER
70S ACROSS THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WHILE LOCATION CLOSER TO
THE WI BORDER WILL BE A BIT COOLER...BUT STILL SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER
THAN NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. STEADY NWLY WINDS AT THE
SFC AND ALOFT SHOULD PREVENT ANY KIND OF LAKE BREEZE FROM FORMING
AND THE WARMER AIR SHOULD COVER THE AREA UP TO THE LAKEFRONT. WHILE
DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE 50S FOR THE MORNING HOURS...DEEP MIXING
SHOULD DRAW MUCH DRIER AIR TO THE SFC...WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO
THE UPPER 30S FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SO...OVERALL...SATURDAY IS
SHAPING UP TO A VERY PLEASANT DAY...WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE MIDWEST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WHILE THE
UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY PROGRESSES AS WELL. WITH A DRIER AIRMASS IN
PLACE TONIGHT...THE CHANCES FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG AND STRATUS IS
UNLIKELY...THROUGH THE CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND LOWER DEWPOINTS
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RADIATE DOWN INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S. THE CHICAGO AREA URBAN HEAT ISLAND SHOULD REMAIN A
LITTLE WARMER...WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 40S.
KREIN
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN RELATIVELY CONSISTENT IN THE MEDIUM TERM FEATURING
MID-LVL RIDGING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION WITH A SFC
RIDGE PROVIDING ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND DRY CONDS FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER THIS RIDGE WILL ONLY BE TEMPORARY AS THE
MID-LVL HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL AND A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW BEGINS TO SETUP
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. FORTUNATELY IT REMAINS LIKELY THAT MON WILL
REMAIN DRY...WITH VERY MILD TEMPS EXPECTED. THE SFC RIDGE WILL BE
SHIFTING EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT SHOULD CONTINUE TO KEEP
CLOUDS TO A MINIMUM AND PRECIP WEST OF THE AREA. THE COMBINATION OF
THIS AND AN ANOMALOUS THERMAL RIDGE WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO SOAR INTO
THE MID/UPR 70S...WITH A FEW 80 DEGREE READINGS IN THE SOUTHERN CWFA
MON AFTN.
BROAD SFC TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SLOWLY
CONSOLIDATE AS THIS FEATURE NEARS THE GREAT LAKES MON EVE. THERE IS
A SMALL CHANCE THAT A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD SKIRT THE
NORTHERN CWFA MON AFTN...BUT EXPECT THE BULK OF THE PRECIP TO OCCUR
POST SUNSET. MID-LVL TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TUE MORNING...AS THE SFC LOW DEEPENS ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN. HAVE
HELD ONTO THE MENTION OF THUNDER INTO TUE MORNING...AS IT APPEARS
SOME INSTABILITY/FORCING WILL CONTINUE. MON NGT TEMPS WILL LIKELY
NOT FALL MUCH...PRODUCING A MILD OVERNIGHT. THEN FOR TUE WITH
CONTINUED CLOUD COVER/PRECIP...EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN IN THE UPR
50S/LOW 60S. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE FROPA TUE...TEMPS COULD
BEGIN TO FALL TUE AFTN INTO THE LOW 50S.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK IT APPEARS THE PATTERN WILL BE
TRANSITIONING TOWARDS A COOLER AND SOMEWHAT ACTIVE SETUP. ENSEMBLES
CONTINUE TO PROG MID-LVL RIDGING DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS...ALLOWING BROAD TROUGHING DOWNSTREAM FOR THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WED/THUR. THEN FRI THE 500MB RIDGE MAY BEGIN TO FURTHER
AMPLIFY AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO APPROACH THE PAC-NW AND
RIDGING REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC. TROUGHING WILL LINGER
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRI. TEMPS WILL TREND BACK TOWARDS
SEASONAL...WITH PERHAPS FRI BEING SUB-SEASONAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPR
40S/LOW 50S. PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED
TIMEFRAME.
BEACHLER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 12Z...
* IFR CIGS/MVFR VIS THIS MORNING.
* BREEZY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS...WITH GUSTS TO ARND 20KT.
KREIN
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
A WEAK SFC TROUGH AND MID LEVEL IMPULSE HAVE PASSED EAST OF THE
REGION...CLEARING OUT THE MID AND HIGH CLOUD. RESIDUAL MOISTURE
HAS ALLOWED FOG AND LOW STRATUS TO DEVELOP...DROPPING CIGS/VIS
INTO IFR RANGES...WITH THE LOWEST CONDITIONS OVER THE RFD AREA
WHICH CLEARED FIRST. THE STRATUS AND FOG WILL BURN OFF BY ARND 14Z
AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION. THE MAIN ISSUE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY WILL BE WINDS. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE
WEAK SFC TROUGH...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE NRN PLAINS WILL
SET UP A STRENGTHENING WNWLY-NWLY GRADIENT OVER THE AREA. WITH
AMPLE MIXING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WINDS SHOULD BECOME MORE
GUSTY...WITH GUSTS TO OR SLIGHTLY IN EXCESS OF 20KT THROUGH SUNSET.
KREIN
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 12Z...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF CIGS/VIS IMPROVING TO VFR.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE WIND TRENDS WITH WNWLY-NWLY WINDS GUSTING TO
ARND 20KT.
KREIN
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
MONDAY...VFR/WX NIL BY DAY...SHRA/TSRA LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT. BREEZY
SOUTH WINDS.
TUESDAY...CHC SHRA/TSRA EARLY. MVFR POSSIBLE EARLY. WEST WINDS.
WEDNESDAY...VFR/WX NIL. WEST WINDS DAYTIME...BECMG SLY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
THURSDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA DAYTIME. VFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS
VEERING TO NLY BY EARLY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
FRIDAY...VFR/WX NIL. NORTH WINDS.
KREIN
&&
.MARINE...
229 AM CDT
LOW PRESSURE OVER JAMES BAY ALONG WITH A SFC RIDGE CENTERED OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS HAS CREATED A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE TWO SYSTEMS...WHICH IS POSITIONED OVER THE LAKE. THIS HAS
RESULTED IN BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER THE LAKE WITH SPEEDS
GENERALLY BETWEEN 20-25KT. ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE
THE GUSTS MAY NEAR 30 KT THIS MORNING. AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST ACROSS THE LAKE...WIND WILL TURN
WEST/NORTHWEST AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUN. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE LAKE SUN...THEN CONTINUE TO
SLIDE EAST BY LATE SUN NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW ONLY A TEMPORARY
LULL IN THE WINDS...BEFORE WINDS TURN SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AND BEGIN TO
INCREASE. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE IS POISED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST
TOWARDS LAKE MICHIGAN MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUE. THIS LOW WILL THEN
DEEPEN TUE AFTERNOON AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN.
THIS COULD PRODUCE A PERIOD OF WEST GALES TUE NGT/EARLY WED...THEN
ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE WESTERN LAKES
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
BEACHLER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
638 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2014
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014
Main concern in the short term will be the dense fog again early
this morning, mainly in the northwestern parts of the CWA. Unlike
last night, the dense fog has not developed yet in the CWA and is
still located along and west of the Mississippi River. However, HRRR
model still forecast dense fog to move into the area. So will
continue the dense fog advisory as is, and will not extend in time or
area. Fog will be in areas east of the Illinois river, but not
dense. After the fog dissipates this morning, mostly clear skies
will be the rule for the area. Should be lots of sunshine to allow
temps to rise into the lower to middle 70s by this afternoon, which
is well above normal for the later part of October. Northwest winds
will only bring in a drier airmass for the day and beyond.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014
1020 mb high pressure over over the northern High Plains, near the
eastern MT and western Dakotas border, to settle into IL by
sunrise Sunday and weaken a bit to 1018 mb, then drift into
eastern KY by sunset Sunday. This will continue fair weather
through Sunday night. 850 mb temps cool to 12-14C tonight into
Sunday morning before rising back up to 14-16C by sunset Sunday.
Lows mostly in the middle 40s tonight (fog limited overnight
tonight over central IL with drier air advecting in). Highs
Sunday mostly 70-75F, except upper 60s to near 70F from I-74
northeast.
Strong low pressure of 1000 mb to eject ne from western KS Sunday
evening into Lake MI Monday night and bring a cold front east across
IL overnight Monday night and across the Wabash river valley in
eastern IL Tue morning. Breezy ssw winds Monday ahead of this storm
system to bring in warm air with highs approaching 80F. Have a
slight chance of showers and thunderstorms late Monday afternoon
far NW CWA by Galesburg. Best chances of showers and isolated
thunderstorms spread east across IL during Monday night (mainly
after midnight Monday night in eastern IL) and Tue morning, then
diminish Tue afternoon from the west. Highs Tue range from lower 60s
from I-55 nw to upper 60s to around 70F from I-70 se. Temperatures
steady or slowly falling Tue afternoon behind the cold front. Slight
chance of showers early Tue evening near the Wabash river, otherwise
dry weather returns Tue night through Wed night as another high
pressure system settles over IL by Wed afternoon. Near normal highs
Wed/Thu in the upper 50s/lower 60s.
A weak northern stream short wave to dive se into upper level trof
over the eastern states and bring another cold front into IL by Thu
afternoon/evening. Have just slight chance of showers Thu due to
limited moisture. ECMWF model shows strong cutoff upper level low
near IL on Halloween along with showers, but other models like GFS
are drier. Models due agree that even colder air arrives on
Halloween with highs in the lower 50s central IL and mid 50s se of
I-70, while low temperatures near freezing next Friday night over
central IL and mid 30s in southeast IL.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014
Difficult part of the forecast will be dense fog and lower IFR
clouds this morning and what time it will dissipate. HRRR keeps
the lower vis along the IL river and to the northwest. So, PIA
will be the only site effected by dense fog. However, other sites
will also have some light fog during the first 2-3hrs of the
morning. IFR and MVFR clouds are also advecting into the area from
the northwest and will effect the other sites early this morning,
before the sunshine burns them off. HRRR is keeps lower clouds in
the area til later this morning. Not sure if I agree with this
forecast, so have skies scattering out and then clearing at all
sites between 15 and 17z. Then clear skies will prevail for
remainder of TAF period, as high pressure builds into the area
with lower dewpoints and northwest winds at 5-10kts.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 9 AM CDT this morning FOR ILZ027>029-
036-040.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Auten
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Auten
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
649 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014
...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 106 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014
A LARGE RIDGE OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
CENTRAL U.S. TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH LOTS OF CLEAR SKIES AND WARM
TEMPERATURES.
850MB TEMPS WARM TO AROUND 22 CELSIUS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AND
AFTERNOON MIXING SHOULD BRING HIGHS TO NEAR RECORDS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL
DEEPEN WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY
UPSLOPE AT 10 TO 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS UPSLOPE COMPONENT
WILL HOLD HIGHS BACK A BIT FROM YESTERDAYS HIGHS. RECORDS RUN FROM
88 AT DODGE CITY, 91 AT GARDEN CITY, AND 90 AT MEDICINE LODGE.
WILL GO WITH AROUND 85 AT DODGE, TO 86 AT GARDEN, AND 87 AT
MEDICINE LODGE. SOME STRATUS/FOG MAY FORM NEAR MEDICINE LODGE TO
PRATT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DEWPOINTS AROUND 60, BUT HRRR SHOWS
JUST EAST OF THERE.
TONIGHT THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY WITH
THE UPPER FLOW BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS WILL PUSH THE SURFACE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INTO WESTERN KANSAS LATE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTHERLY AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH CLEAR SKIES. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE MILD AND RANGE FROM UPPER 40S AROUND GARDEN CITY TO THE MID
50S AT DODGE CITY, AND UPPER 50S AT MEDICINE LODGE. THE COOLER TEMPS
IN THE WEST DUE TO THE LIGHTER WINDS NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014
ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH DEEP
MIXING OF WARM AND DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AIR EXPECTED. SURFACE WINDS
WILL BECOME WESTERLY WITH THE DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT HELPING WITH THE
WARMING. BY THE FIRST OF THE WEEK A PACIFIC ORIGIN COLD FRONT
WILL BE MOVING ACROSS MY CWA AS A STRONG S/WV THROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ALTHOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED, THERE SHOULD BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
FROM THE PASSING TROUGH (WITH THE PACIFIC ORIGINS). IF ALL PANS
OUT AS EXPECTED, THERE SHOULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF ACCENT WITH
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC JET LOCATED SOMEWHERE
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO GET AT LEAST VIRGA SHOWERS
OR SPRINKLES. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH AND DECREASING CLOUD
COVER, DRYING AIR AND DECREASING WINDS, THE MIN TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY SHOULD FALL BACK TO AT LEAST SEASONAL VALUES.
FOR THE BALANCE OF THE WEEK THERE SHOULD BE A TRANSITORY UPPER
RIDGE MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS SO THAT DRY WEATHER AND
TYPICAL LATE OCTOBER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014
STRATUS AND FOG WILL BE CREEPING UP INTO THE PRATT AND MEDICINE
LODGE AREAS BEFORE SUNRISE BUT THEN SHOULD QUICKLY BURN OFF BY
MID-MORNING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 85 54 87 52 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 86 49 86 49 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 85 53 85 51 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 86 53 87 53 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 82 52 82 53 / 0 0 0 0
P28 87 59 89 59 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KRUSE
LONG TERM...HUTTON
AVIATION...HUTTON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
739 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY
WITH SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE AND MILDER TEMPERATURES. UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY WILL THEN DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION FROM CANADA TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY WITH A RENEWED THREAT OF SHOWERS AND HIGHER SUMMIT SNOW
SHOWERS. PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNING BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH GENERALLY DRY
WEATHER AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 721 AM EDT SATURDAY...MODEST ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER
THROUGH THE DAY BASED OFF LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS AND RAP 850 MB
RH PROGS. THIS WOULD SUGGEST MID CLOUDS CURRENTLY ACROSS
CENTRAL/WESTERN NY WILL OVERSPREAD OUR AREA A LITTLE FASTER THAN
PRIOR INDICATIONS. STILL LOOKING AT A FEW HOURS OF PARTIAL SUN
HOWEVER. HAVE A GREAT DAY. PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
PRIOR DISCUSSION...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TODAY AS DEFAULT SHORTWAVE RIDGING
SKIRTS QUICKLY THROUGH AND EAST OF THE REGION. THUS AT LEAST SOME
PARTIAL SUNSHINE THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS
UNDER LIGHT SOUTH WINDS. 925 MB THERMAL PROFILES AT 18 UTC AVERAGE
7 TO 10C OR SO...SO ADDING THE TYPICAL 7-8C FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS
DURING THE AUTUMNAL (OR VERNAL) SEASONAL PERIOD SUPPORTS HIGHS
RANGING FROM 55 TO 60 ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY. BY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING RATHER VIGOROUS
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING QUICKLY SOUTHEAST TOWARD
THE AREA WITH FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE PVA AND HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT. THUS
RUNNING IDEA OF INCREASING CLOUDS AND CHANCES OF SHOWERS STILL
APPEARS ON TRACK BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR NRN NY
COUNTIES...AND TOWARD EARLY EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN VT. THREAT
OF SHOWERS LOWER ACROSS SOUTHERN VT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SATURDAY...BY TONIGHT SCT/NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE AS SHORTWAVE AND UPPER ENERGY DROPS INTO THE REGION...ESP
ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTH. AS FLOW TRENDS WEST/NORTHWESTERLY ALOFT
LATER TONIGHT...FREEZING LEVELS WILL DROP TO AROUND 3000 FT OR SO
WITH PCPN MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO SNOW AT THE SUMMIT LEVEL OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW. LOWS FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S BELOW THE 2000
FT LEVEL. BEING OF CONTINENTAL ORIGIN...SYSTEM WILL HAVE ONLY
MODEST MOISTURE TO WORK WITH HOWEVER SO NOT LOOKING AT ANYTHING
PARTICULARLY HEAVY.
BY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH CYCLONIC WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT AND PLENTY OF CLOUDS. FLOW WILL BECOME BLOCKED OVER TIME SUCH
THAT SHOWER COVERAGE WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY CONFINED TO THE
NORTHERN MTNS WHERE SOME LIGHT ADDL SNOWFALL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
ABOVE 2500 FT OR SO. HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 7 TO 12 DEGREES
COOLER THAN TODAY...OR GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40.
BY MONDAY STILL GOOD CONSISTENCY AMONG THIS MORNING`S GLOBAL
SOLUTIONS IN SHOWING MODERATELY AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE RIDGING TO BEGIN
PUSHING EAST FROM THE CENTRAL STATES WITH RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND
DIMINISHING NORTHWESTERLY SFC FLOW. STILL SOME LINGERING/VRB
CLOUDS...ESP NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA WHERE A BRIEF
SPRINKLE WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE FIRST HALF THE DAY ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DRY ELSEWHERE. HIGHS A BLEND OF AVBL GUIDANCE
SUPPORTING VALUES FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S...OR WITHIN 2 DEG OF
LATE OCTOBER SEASONAL NORMS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 403 AM EDT SATURDAY...OVERALL IDEA FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD
REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING WITH THE
LATEST GFS AND ECMWF COMING INTO GOOD AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THE
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN.
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST SHIFTS OFFSHORE
AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS UPSTREAM OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES INCREASES SOUTHERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH 1000-500MB THICKNESSES RISING TO AROUND
565DM TUESDAY AFTERNOON. 850MB TEMPS RISE TO NEAR +11C SUPPORTING
HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S UNDER PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES. AS THE SURFACE LOW SHIFTS NORTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO
EAST OF JAMES BAY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...IT
INTENSIFIES AND A THERMALLY STRONG BUT MOISTURE LACKING COLD FRONT
TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION. UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH THE EXACT
TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY WITH ECMWF STILL A LITTLE BIT SLOWER THAN
THE GFS. BASED ON THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT BELIEVE THE ECMWF IS ON THE RIGHT PATH SO HAVE LEANED IN
THAT DIRECTIONS OFFERING A FROPA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF
WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS AND TEMPS FALLING SHARPLY THROUGH
THE DAY UNDER STRONG CAA.
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY
DRY WITH ZONAL TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT AS ANOTHER
UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. WE`LL RETURN TO MORE FALL-
LIKE TEMPS WITH THE 540DM THICKNESS LINE WELL SOUTH OF THE BTV
CWA AND DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S AND 50S AND LOWS IN THE 20S
AND 30S. THERE`S SOME UNCERTAINTY ON PRECIP PROBS FOR HALLOWEEN AT
THIS TIME AS THE GFS AND ECMWF HANDLE SAID TROUGH DIFFERENTLY.
HAVE TRENDED DRY FOR NOW...BUT THE JURY IS STILL OUT.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES WITH SOME SCT CIRRUS
THIS MORNING WILL TREND TOWARDS A BKN-OVC VFR DECK THIS AFTERNOON
AS A COLD FRONT SWINGS INTO THE REGION. KSLK IS CURRENTLY UNDER A
DENSE LIFR STRATUS DECK...WHICH WILL SLOWLY ERODE THROUGH THE NEXT
2 HOURS...LIFTING INTO A VFR DECK. A SHORT 1-3HR PERIOD OF
SHOWERS ACCOMPANIES THE FRONT AS IT MOVES WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
CWA...BUT EXPECT VSBY TO REMAIN VFR MAYBE BRIEFLY MVFR. CIGS WILL
LOWER AREA-WIDE TO MVFR DURING PRECIP AND BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
WINDS SHIFTING FROM THE SOUTH TO WEST- SOUTHWEST AFTER 00Z.
OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
12Z SUNDAY - 12Z MONDAY...A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR ASSOCIATED WITH A
SECOND ROUND OF VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
BEHIND AN EXITING FRONT ON NORTHWEST FLOW.
12Z MONDAY - 06Z WEDNESDAY...VFR UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.
06Z WEDNESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...VFR WITH SOME AREAS OF MVFR IN
RAIN SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
721 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY
WITH SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE AND MILDER TEMPERATURES. UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY WILL THEN DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION FROM CANADA TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY WITH A RENEWED THREAT OF SHOWERS AND HIGHER SUMMIT SNOW
SHOWERS. PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNING BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH GENERALLY DRY
WEATHER AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 721 AM EDT SATURDAY...MODEST ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER
THROUGH THE DAY BASED OFF LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS AND RAP 850 MB
RH PROGS. THIS WOULD SUGGEST MID CLOUDS CURRENTLY ACROSS
CENTRAL/WESTERN NY WILL OVERSPREAD OUR AREA A LITTLE FASTER THAN
PRIOR INDICATIONS. STILL LOOKING AT A FEW HOURS OF PARTIAL SUN
HOWEVER. HAVE A GREAT DAY. PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
PRIOR DISCUSSION...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TODAY AS DEFAULT SHORTWAVE RIDGING
SKIRTS QUICKLY THROUGH AND EAST OF THE REGION. THUS AT LEAST SOME
PARTIAL SUNSHINE THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS
UNDER LIGHT SOUTH WINDS. 925 MB THERMAL PROFILES AT 18 UTC AVERAGE
7 TO 10C OR SO...SO ADDING THE TYPICAL 7-8C FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS
DURING THE AUTUMNAL (OR VERNAL) SEASONAL PERIOD SUPPORTS HIGHS
RANGING FROM 55 TO 60 ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY. BY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING RATHER VIGOROUS
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING QUICKLY SOUTHEAST TOWARD
THE AREA WITH FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE PVA AND HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT. THUS
RUNNING IDEA OF INCREASING CLOUDS AND CHANCES OF SHOWERS STILL
APPEARS ON TRACK BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR NRN NY
COUNTIES...AND TOWARD EARLY EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN VT. THREAT
OF SHOWERS LOWER ACROSS SOUTHERN VT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SATURDAY...BY TONIGHT SCT/NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE AS SHORTWAVE AND UPPER ENERGY DROPS INTO THE REGION...ESP
ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTH. AS FLOW TRENDS WEST/NORTHWESTERLY ALOFT
LATER TONIGHT...FREEZING LEVELS WILL DROP TO AROUND 3000 FT OR SO
WITH PCPN MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO SNOW AT THE SUMMIT LEVEL OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW. LOWS FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S BELOW THE 2000
FT LEVEL. BEING OF CONTINENTAL ORIGIN...SYSTEM WILL HAVE ONLY
MODEST MOISTURE TO WORK WITH HOWEVER SO NOT LOOKING AT ANYTHING
PARTICULARLY HEAVY.
BY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH CYCLONIC WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT AND PLENTY OF CLOUDS. FLOW WILL BECOME BLOCKED OVER TIME SUCH
THAT SHOWER COVERAGE WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY CONFINED TO THE
NORTHERN MTNS WHERE SOME LIGHT ADDL SNOWFALL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
ABOVE 2500 FT OR SO. HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 7 TO 12 DEGREES
COOLER THAN TODAY...OR GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40.
BY MONDAY STILL GOOD CONSISTENCY AMONG THIS MORNING`S GLOBAL
SOLUTIONS IN SHOWING MODERATELY AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE RIDGING TO BEGIN
PUSHING EAST FROM THE CENTRAL STATES WITH RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND
DIMINISHING NORTHWESTERLY SFC FLOW. STILL SOME LINGERING/VRB
CLOUDS...ESP NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA WHERE A BRIEF
SPRINKLE WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE FIRST HALF THE DAY ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DRY ELSEWHERE. HIGHS A BLEND OF AVBL GUIDANCE
SUPPORTING VALUES FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S...OR WITHIN 2 DEG OF
LATE OCTOBER SEASONAL NORMS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 403 AM EDT SATURDAY...OVERALL IDEA FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD
REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING WITH THE
LATEST GFS AND ECMWF COMING INTO GOOD AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THE
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN.
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST SHIFTS OFFSHORE
AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS UPSTREAM OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES INCREASES SOUTHERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH 1000-500MB THICKNESSES RISING TO AROUND
565DM TUESDAY AFTERNOON. 850MB TEMPS RISE TO NEAR +11C SUPPORTING
HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S UNDER PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES. AS THE SURFACE LOW SHIFTS NORTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO
EAST OF JAMES BAY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...IT
INTENSIFIES AND A THERMALLY STRONG BUT MOISTURE LACKING COLD FRONT
TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION. UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH THE EXACT
TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY WITH ECMWF STILL A LITTLE BIT SLOWER THAN
THE GFS. BASED ON THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT BELIEVE THE ECMWF IS ON THE RIGHT PATH SO HAVE LEANED IN
THAT DIRECTIONS OFFERING A FROPA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF
WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS AND TEMPS FALLING SHARPLY THROUGH
THE DAY UNDER STRONG CAA.
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY
DRY WITH ZONAL TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT AS ANOTHER
UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. WE`LL RETURN TO MORE FALL-
LIKE TEMPS WITH THE 540DM THICKNESS LINE WELL SOUTH OF THE BTV
CWA AND DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S AND 50S AND LOWS IN THE 20S
AND 30S. THERE`S SOME UNCERTAINTY ON PRECIP PROBS FOR HALLOWEEN AT
THIS TIME AS THE GFS AND ECMWF HANDLE SAID TROUGH DIFFERENTLY.
HAVE TRENDED DRY FOR NOW...BUT THE JURY IS STILL OUT.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS UNDER SOME FEW-SCT CIRRUS WITH
IFR FOG AT KMPV/KSLK THROUGH 11-12Z. LOOKING UPSTREAM...MVFR CIGS
ARE PROGRESSING EASTWARD AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SWING
THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THESE CIGS TO SHIFT INTO
NORTHERN NEW YORK AFTER 14Z...BUT BREAK UP COMING INTO VERMONT
WHERE VFR WILL PREVAIL. A SHORT 3-HR PERIOD OF SHOWERS ACCOMPANIES
THE FRONT AS IT MOVES WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CWA...BUT EXPECT
VSBY TO REMAIN VFR MAYBE BRIEFLY MVFR. CIGS WILL LOWER AREA-WIDE
TO MVFR BEHIND THE FRONT WITH WINDS SHIFTING FROM THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST AFTER 00Z.
OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
06Z SUNDAY - 12Z MONDAY...A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR ASSOCIATED WITH A
SECOND ROUND OF VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
BEHIND AN EXITING FRONT ON NORTHWEST FLOW.
12Z MONDAY - 06Z WEDNESDAY...VFR UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.
06Z WEDNESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...VFR WITH SOME AREAS OF MVFR IN
RAIN SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1128 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND THEN
SHIFT OFFSHORE. THIS WILL RESULT IN PROGRESSIVELY WARMER
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT LATE IN THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK
TO SEASONABLE LEVELS IF NOT BELOW NORMAL. THE ONLY CHANCE FOR
MEASURABLE RAINFALL WILL BE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1130 AM SATURDAY...ALOFT VERY DRY AIR HAS MOVED IN THE
REGION WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS BETWEEN 0.3 TO 0.4 INCH RANGE
WHICH IS WELL BELOW THE CLIMATOLOGICAL 25TH PERCENTILE VALUE AT
CHS AND GSO.
AT THE SURFACE A WEAK SEA BREEZE IS PROJECTED BY THE 13 UTC RUN OF
THE HRRR MAINLY SOUTH OF WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH AND EXTENDING TO THE
SOUTH SANTEE RIVER. THE SEA BREEZE IS ONLY EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND
10 TO 15 MILES BEFORE SUNSET.
WITH THE DRY AIR IN PLACE EXPECT THE HIGHS TODAY TO REBOUND
QUICKLY WITH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 70S EXCEPT FOR LOW
70S AT THE BEACHES WHICH ARE IMPACTED BY THE SEA BREEZE.
NOCTURNAL JETTING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS WINDS ABOVE
THE BOUNDARY LAYER INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT AND THIS WILL PREVENT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG. THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...
COINCIDENT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPSTREAM UPPER LEVEL FEATURE...
WILL ALLOW WINDS TO VEER FROM WSW TO W AND NW LATE TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...BEAUTIFUL WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED DURING
THIS PERIOD. MID- LEVEL FLOW WILL GRADUALLY FLATTEN DURING
SUNDAY...THEN EVOLVE TO A LONGWAVE RIDGE MONDAY WITH THE MID-LEVEL
HIGH CENTER MOVING TO JUST OFF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA. MOST OF
THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WHICH IS TYPICALLY
DRYING...AND WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH A SURFACE HIGH MOVING
OVERHEAD TO CREATE DRY AND PRETTY MUCH CLOUDLESS CONDITIONS. IN
ADDITION...AS THICKNESSES RISE AND HIGH PRESSURE SCOOTS
OFFSHORE...HIGH TEMPS WILL CLIMB TOWARDS 80 BOTH DAYS...WHICH IS
5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE DRY COLUMN AND WEAK GRADIENT WILL
ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AT NIGHT HOWEVER...SO LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL DROP TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS AROUND 50...WITH
MONDAY NIGHT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THANKS TO
DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...VERY WARM AND SUNNY THE FIRST HALF OF THE
EXTENDED...BUT A BIG AIR MASS CHANGE WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT
LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS FRONT MAY CAUSE SOME SHOWERS FOR HALLOWEEN.
500MB RIDGE ANCHORED OFF THE ATLANTIC FLORIDA COAST WILL EXTEND
NORTH THROUGH THE FULL LATITUDE OF THE CONUS...PRODUCING SW FLOW
ALOFT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND DRIVING HIGH THICKNESSES INTO THE
CAROLINAS. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST
THROUGH MID-WEEK AS WELL...AS A COLD FRONT DISPLACES IT FROM THE
WEST. TUE/WED WILL BOTH BE QUITE WARM...WITH HIGHS LIKELY REACHING
THE LOW 80S BOTH AFTNS...AND LOWS FALLING ONLY TO THE MID 50S/NEAR
60. ALTHOUGH MOIST ADVECTION WILL INCREASE TUE/WED...MID-LEVELS
REMAIN TOO DRY FOR ANY PRECIP.
STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES THURSDAY...AND MAY LINGER ACROSS THE
AREA ON FRIDAY THANKS TO AN AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGH DIVING
THROUGH THE MS VLY. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY INTO THE TIMING
OF THIS FEATURE...AS WELL AS ITS INTENSITY...BUT LATE THURSDAY INTO
EARLY FRIDAY DOES APPEAR TO SUPPORT A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
WILL RAISE POP TO LOW-CHC AS FORECAST PROFILES CONTINUE TO BECOME
MORE SATURATED...MATCHING THE EXTENDED MOS P-NUMBERS. AS THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH DRIFTS EAST ON FRIDAY...IT WILL CAUSE THE FRONT TO
STALL...OR MOVE VERY SLOWLY...SUCH THAT IT WILL BE A RACE TO SEE
IF THE DRY AIR CAN WORK BACK IN BEFORE HALLOWEEN EVENING
FESTIVITIES. ATTM IT LOOKS GOOD FOR HALLOWEEN...BUT THIS WILL HAVE
TO BE MONITORED SINCE THE TROUGH AXIS HANGING BACK TO THE WEST
COULD KEEP THE FRONT OVERHEAD THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
REGARDLESS OF WHERE THE FRONT IS ON FRIDAY...TEMPS WILL BE MUCH
COOLER...LIKELY FALLING TO BELOW CLIMO BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...DUE TO THE RATHER SHALLOW NATURE OF THE PATCHY GROUND
FOG THAT IS OCCURRING...FULL SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW FOR A RAPID
BURN-OFF AND VFR CONDITIONS BY 13Z. VFR IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
LIGHT N-NW WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY AFTER
MIDDAY...AOB 8 KT. KCRE/KMYR MAY SEE S-SW WINDS BY 17Z. JUST SCT
CIRRUS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. TOWARDS THIS EVENING SOME SCT MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THE FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT...WITH ONLY SCT LOW/MID CLOUDS AND A
WIND-SHIFT TO THE NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1130 AM SATURDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS AT 10 KNOTS ARE OCCURRING
LATE THIS MORNING OVER THE COAST WATERS. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO BACK TO THE WEST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN TO THE
SOUTHWEST AS A SEA- BREEZE DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON. PASSAGE OF A
SURFACE TROUGH WILL VEER WINDS BACK TO THE NW LATE TONIGHT.
NOCTURNAL JETTING WILL INCREASE WIND SPEEDS FROM 10 KT OR LESS
TODAY TO 10 TO 15 KT OVERNIGHT. ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OUTERMOST
WATERS...SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS MAY REACH 20 KT FOR A TIME
OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL BE 2 FT OR LESS INTO THIS EVE...BUILDING UP
TO 3 TO 4 FT OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY W/NW WINDS
EARLY SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE WATERS WILL PRODUCE
PRIMARILY LIGHT SPEEDS WITH DIRECTIONS VARYING THROUGH NEARLY THE
ENTIRE COMPASS. W/NW WINDS THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF SUNDAY WILL REACH
15 KTS BEHIND A WEAK FRONT MOVING AWAY FROM THE WATERS...BUT
THEREAFTER THE GRADIENT WILL EASE DUE TO THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
OVERHEAD. WINDS SPEEDS DROP TO 5-10 KTS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
SHORT TERM...AND THE DIRECTION WILL VEER FROM NW SUNDAY AFTN...TO NE
BY MONDAY MORNING...AND THEN FINALLY SW BY MONDAY NIGHT. HIGHEST
WAVE AMPLITUDES OCCUR EARLY SUNDAY WITH THE STRONGER WINDS...BUT
WILL STILL BE ONLY 2-3 FT THANKS TO THE OFFSHORE COMPONENT OF THE
WIND. SUNDAY EVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT EXPECT 1-2 FT SEAS...WITH
SEVERAL LOW-AMPLITUDE WAVE GROUPS COMPRISING THE SPECTRUM.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE AND AWAY FROM
THE COAST THROUGH MID-WEEK WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THIS PERIOD.
RETURN FLOW AROUND THIS HIGH KEEPS WINDS FROM THE SW TUE AND
WED...WITH THE RELATIVELY WEAK GRADIENT DRIVING WINDS ONLY TO AROUND
10 KTS. VERY LATE WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND A WIND
SHIFT TO THE NE MAY OCCUR BEFORE DAYBREAK THURSDAY...BUT SOME
UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS. ALTHOUGH THE FLOW WILL BE PERSISTENT FROM
THE SW...THE LIGHT SPEEDS WILL KEEP SEAS AT 1-3 FT BOTH DAYS EVEN AS
A SE GROUND SWELL AMPLIFIES.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HAWKINS/RJD
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...MRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
945 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND THEN
SHIFT OFFSHORE. THIS WILL RESULT IN PROGRESSIVELY WARMER
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT LATE IN THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK
TO SEASONABLE LEVELS IF NOT BELOW NORMAL. THE ONLY CHANCE FOR
MEASURABLE RAINFALL WILL BE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 AM SATURDAY...ALOFT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS SHIFTED OFF
THE COAST AND VERY DRY AIR HAS MOVED IN THE REGION WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATERS BETWEEN 0.3 TO 0.4 INCH RANGE WHICH IS WELL
BELOW THE CLIMATOLOGICAL 25TH PERCENTILE VALUE AT CHS AND GSO.
AT THE SURFACE A WEAK SEA BREEZE IS PROJECTED BY THE 11 UTC RUN
OF THE HRRR MAINLY BETWEEN WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH AND THE SOUTH SANTEE
RIVER. THE SEA BREEZE IS ONLY EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND 10 TO 15
MILES BEFORE SUNSET.
WITH THE DRY AIR IN PLACE EXPECT THE HIGHS TODAY TO REBOUND
QUICKLY WITH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 70S EXCEPT FOR LOW
70S AT THE BEACHES WHICH ARE IMPACTED BY THE SEA BREEZE.
NOCTURNAL JETTING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS WINDS ABOVE
THE BOUNDARY LAYER INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT AND THIS WILL PREVENT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG. THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...
COINCIDENT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPSTREAM UPPER LEVEL FEATURE...
WILL ALLOW WINDS TO VEER FROM WSW TO W AND NW LATE TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...BEAUTIFUL WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED DURING
THIS PERIOD. MID- LEVEL FLOW WILL GRADUALLY FLATTEN DURING
SUNDAY...THEN EVOLVE TO A LONGWAVE RIDGE MONDAY WITH THE MID-LEVEL
HIGH CENTER MOVING TO JUST OFF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA. MOST OF
THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WHICH IS TYPICALLY
DRYING...AND WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH A SURFACE HIGH MOVING
OVERHEAD TO CREATE DRY AND PRETTY MUCH CLOUDLESS CONDITIONS. IN
ADDITION...AS THICKNESSES RISE AND HIGH PRESSURE SCOOTS
OFFSHORE...HIGH TEMPS WILL CLIMB TOWARDS 80 BOTH DAYS...WHICH IS
5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE DRY COLUMN AND WEAK GRADIENT WILL
ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AT NIGHT HOWEVER...SO LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL DROP TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS AROUND 50...WITH
MONDAY NIGHT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THANKS TO
DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...VERY WARM AND SUNNY THE FIRST HALF OF THE
EXTENDED...BUT A BIG AIR MASS CHANGE WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT
LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS FRONT MAY CAUSE SOME SHOWERS FOR HALLOWEEN.
500MB RIDGE ANCHORED OFF THE ATLANTIC FLORIDA COAST WILL EXTEND
NORTH THROUGH THE FULL LATITUDE OF THE CONUS...PRODUCING SW FLOW
ALOFT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND DRIVING HIGH THICKNESSES INTO THE
CAROLINAS. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST
THROUGH MID-WEEK AS WELL...AS A COLD FRONT DISPLACES IT FROM THE
WEST. TUE/WED WILL BOTH BE QUITE WARM...WITH HIGHS LIKELY REACHING
THE LOW 80S BOTH AFTNS...AND LOWS FALLING ONLY TO THE MID 50S/NEAR
60. ALTHOUGH MOIST ADVECTION WILL INCREASE TUE/WED...MID-LEVELS
REMAIN TOO DRY FOR ANY PRECIP.
STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES THURSDAY...AND MAY LINGER ACROSS THE
AREA ON FRIDAY THANKS TO AN AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGH DIVING
THROUGH THE MS VLY. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY INTO THE TIMING
OF THIS FEATURE...AS WELL AS ITS INTENSITY...BUT LATE THURSDAY INTO
EARLY FRIDAY DOES APPEAR TO SUPPORT A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
WILL RAISE POP TO LOW-CHC AS FORECAST PROFILES CONTINUE TO BECOME
MORE SATURATED...MATCHING THE EXTENDED MOS P-NUMBERS. AS THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH DRIFTS EAST ON FRIDAY...IT WILL CAUSE THE FRONT TO
STALL...OR MOVE VERY SLOWLY...SUCH THAT IT WILL BE A RACE TO SEE
IF THE DRY AIR CAN WORK BACK IN BEFORE HALLOWEEN EVENING
FESTIVITIES. ATTM IT LOOKS GOOD FOR HALLOWEEN...BUT THIS WILL HAVE
TO BE MONITORED SINCE THE TROUGH AXIS HANGING BACK TO THE WEST
COULD KEEP THE FRONT OVERHEAD THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
REGARDLESS OF WHERE THE FRONT IS ON FRIDAY...TEMPS WILL BE MUCH
COOLER...LIKELY FALLING TO BELOW CLIMO BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...DUE TO THE RATHER SHALLOW NATURE OF THE PATCHY GROUND
FOG THAT IS OCCURRING...FULL SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW FOR A RAPID
BURN-OFF AND VFR CONDITIONS BY 13Z. VFR IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
LIGHT N-NW WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY AFTER
MIDDAY...AOB 8 KT. KCRE/KMYR MAY SEE S-SW WINDS BY 17Z. JUST SCT
CIRRUS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. TOWARDS THIS EVENING SOME SCT MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THE FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT...WITH ONLY SCT LOW/MID CLOUDS AND A
WIND-SHIFT TO THE NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 AM SATURDAY...WEST TO NORTH WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS ARE
OCCURRING THIS MORNING OVER THE COAST WATERS. THESE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BACK TO THE WEST LATER THIS MORNING AND THEN TO THE
SOUTHWEST AS A SEA-BREEZE DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON. PASSAGE OF A
SURFACE TROUGH WILL VEER WINDS BACK TO THE NW LATE TONIGHT.
NOCTURNAL JETTING WILL INCREASE WIND SPEEDS FROM 10 KT OR LESS
TODAY TO 10 TO 15 KT OVERNIGHT. ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OUTERMOST
WATERS...SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS MAY REACH 20 KT FOR A TIME
OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL BE 2 FT OR LESS INTO THIS EVE...BUILDING UP
TO 3 TO 4 FT OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY W/NW WINDS
EARLY SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE WATERS WILL PRODUCE
PRIMARILY LIGHT SPEEDS WITH DIRECTIONS VARYING THROUGH NEARLY THE
ENTIRE COMPASS. W/NW WINDS THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF SUNDAY WILL REACH
15 KTS BEHIND A WEAK FRONT MOVING AWAY FROM THE WATERS...BUT
THEREAFTER THE GRADIENT WILL EASE DUE TO THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
OVERHEAD. WINDS SPEEDS DROP TO 5-10 KTS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
SHORT TERM...AND THE DIRECTION WILL VEER FROM NW SUNDAY AFTN...TO NE
BY MONDAY MORNING...AND THEN FINALLY SW BY MONDAY NIGHT. HIGHEST
WAVE AMPLITUDES OCCUR EARLY SUNDAY WITH THE STRONGER WINDS...BUT
WILL STILL BE ONLY 2-3 FT THANKS TO THE OFFSHORE COMPONENT OF THE
WIND. SUNDAY EVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT EXPECT 1-2 FT SEAS...WITH
SEVERAL LOW-AMPLITUDE WAVE GROUPS COMPRISING THE SPECTRUM.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE AND AWAY FROM
THE COAST THROUGH MID-WEEK WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THIS PERIOD.
RETURN FLOW AROUND THIS HIGH KEEPS WINDS FROM THE SW TUE AND
WED...WITH THE RELATIVELY WEAK GRADIENT DRIVING WINDS ONLY TO AROUND
10 KTS. VERY LATE WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND A WIND
SHIFT TO THE NE MAY OCCUR BEFORE DAYBREAK THURSDAY...BUT SOME
UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS. ALTHOUGH THE FLOW WILL BE PERSISTENT FROM
THE SW...THE LIGHT SPEEDS WILL KEEP SEAS AT 1-3 FT BOTH DAYS EVEN AS
A SE GROUND SWELL AMPLIFIES.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HAWKINS/RJD
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...MRR
FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RENO NV
309 PM PDT SAT OCT 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INLAND TONIGHT, BRINGING GUSTY WINDS ALONG
WITH LIGHT RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. COOLER CONDITIONS WITH A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED EARLY SUNDAY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.
MILD AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN NEXT WEEK, WITH A CHANCE OF
RAIN AND SNOW WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES BY NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
COLD FRONTAL PRECIPITATION BAND HAS MOVED INTO WESTERN NEVADA AND
THE EASTERN SIERRA AROUND LAKE TAHOE AND ALPINE COUNTY. THE
PRECIPITATION HAS FALLEN APART AS PROGGED BY MODELS NORTH OF RENO.
HOWEVER, PRECIPITATION HELD TOGETHER BETTER THAN EXPECTED FOR RENO
SOUTH TO MINDEN MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 395. NEAR THE
CREST WEST OF LAKE TAHOE THE PRECIPITATION WAS HEAVY ENOUGH TO
BRIEFLY DRIVE SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO BETWEEN 6500 AND 7000 FEET AND
CAUSE SLUSHY ACCUMULATIONS ON INTERSTATE 80 (THAT HAS SINCE MELTED).
OUTSIDE OF THE BRIEF LOWERING, SNOW LEVELS ARE RUNNING BETWEEN
ABOUT 7500 AND 8500 FEET. AS SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR ALOFT FILTERS IN
WITH THIS SYSTEM`S TROUGH AXIS TONIGHT AND PRECIPITATION TURNS
SHOWERY SNOW LEVELS WILL SLOWLY FALL TO AS LOW AS 6000-6500 FEET
ALTHOUGH MOST PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF BY THEN. IN ANY CASE,
BURSTS OF SNOW SHOWERS COULD CERTAINLY CAUSE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
AND SLICK ROADS AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS FROM TAHOE NORTH OVERNIGHT.
WIND-WISE, SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO BETWEEN 40
AND 60 MPH WERE WIDESPREAD TODAY. WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO FALL OFF
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BUT ARE STILL HOWLING OUT IN THE BASIN AND
RANGE WITH STRONG WEST WINDS DRIVING A LARGE AREA OF DUST OFF THE
CARSON SINK (EASTERN PERSHING/CHURCHILL COUNTIES).
FOR TONIGHT, THERE IS ONE MORE DISTURBANCE ROUNDING THE BASE OF
THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH. AT THIS TIME, IT IS FIRING UP NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND EVEN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA.
THIS IMPULSE WILL MOVE THROUGH FAR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS
EVENING AND FIRE UP ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS FOR NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA
AND WESTERN NEVADA, MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. THIS COULD
BRING LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE 6500-7000 FEET. ELSEWHERE,
RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT. WINDS
WILL REMAIN A BIT GUSTY FOR MANY AREAS THIS EVENING BEFORE DYING
OFF CONSIDERABLY FOR VALLEYS AS A WEAK SURFACE HIGH BUILD IN.
SUNDAY MORNING A FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS MAY LINGER WELL NORTH OF
I-80 BEFORE AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO SLOWLY BUILD OVERHEAD THROUGH
MONDAY. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A BIT BELOW AVERAGE AS
A COOL SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE GREAT BASIN. SNYDER
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION AT THE BEGINNING ON THE LONG TERM
ON TUESDAY. RATHER QUIET WEATHER OVERALL TUESDAY-THURSDAY. ONE
EXCEPTION IS POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT WARM ADVECTION PRECIP NORTH OF
SUSANVILLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
FILAMENT OF MOISTURE BREAKING OFF A MORE SIGNIFICANT ATMOSPHERIC
RIVER OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THIS
PRECIP IS ONLY MEDIUM - MAINLY DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN HOW FAR
SOUTH THE MOISTURE PLUME WILL GET.
MAIN INTEREST IN THE LONG TERM IS INCREASING LIKELIHOOD OF AN
APPRECIABLE TROF MOVING INTO CA/NV FRIDAY-SATURDAY. THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ECMWF/GFS BUT OVERALL THE BIG PICTURE
PATTERN IS SIMILAR, LEADING TO MEDIUM FORECAST CONFIDENCE WHICH AT
THIS LEAD TIME ISN`T BAD. NAEFS ANOMALY CHARTS ALSO PICKING UP ON
THIS TROUGH WHICH HELPS INCREASE CONFIDENCE IN THE PATTERN
VERIFYING. OVERALL CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE MINIMAL. CHANCE OF
RAIN FRIDAY-SATURDAY WITH SNOW LEVELS FALLING FROM 10KFT TO 6-7KFT.
QPF/TIMING ARE THE MAIN UNCERTAINTIES: ECMWF LIGHTER QPF BUT FASTER
WHILE GFS HAS SOME PERIODS OF HEAVY PRECIP IN THE SIERRA BUT IT`S
SLOWER. NO REASON TO FAVOR ONE OUTCOME OVER THE OTHER RIGHT NOW.
STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY GIVEN
SFC GRADIENT AND 700MB FLOW 40-55 KTS DEPICTED IN THE GFS; TO A
LESSER EXTENT IN THE ECMWF. CS
&&
.AVIATION...
NOT EXACTLY THE MOST PLEASANT DAY FOR FLYING WITH STRONG WINDS AND
SHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGH MID-EVENING. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE
TAFS IS MEDIUM.
WINDS HAVE BEEN SOMEWHAT ERRATIC AROUND RNO/CXP WITH PRECIP SPILLING
OVER AND SWITCHING WIND DIRECTION AT SFC TO W/NW. S/SW WINDS IN
FOOTHILLS YIELDING LLWS WHICH HAS BEEN REPORTED BY RECENT ARRIVALS
INTO RNO. NOT SURE HOW LONG THIS WESTERLY WIND WILL LAST SO HAVE
USED TEMPO IN TAF. THE NEXT UNCERTAINTY IS POTENTIAL FOR MOUNTAIN
WAVE AND DOWNSLOPE WIND ENHANCEMENTS AT RNO/CXP FROM 23Z-03Z AS
WINDS ALOFT TURN MORE W/SW. IF THIS HAPPENS WINDS AT THE SURFACE
WOULD TURN MORE SSE BUT JUST OFF THE SURFACE STRONG SW WINDS OF
50KTS WOULD RESULT IN APPRECIABLE LLWS CONTINUING AT RNO/CXP. HRRR
SHOWING THIS SIGNATURE CLEARLY IN LATEST RUNS. OVERALL THE
PROBABILITY OF THIS SCENARIO PANNING OUT IS ABOUT 50-60% SO HAVE
INCLUDED IN THE 18Z TAFS.
OTHERWISE MAIN ISSUE IS PRECIP IN THE SIERRA AND IN FAR WESTERN
NEVADA WEST OF HWY 395. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR GUIDANCE -
BETWEEN NOW AND 03Z IS OPTIMAL TIME FOR COLD FRONTAL RAIN TO IMPACT
AIRFIELDS INCLUDING TRK/TVL/BRIDGEPORT. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION IS A
GIVEN IN THE SIERRA AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT DAYBREAK SUNDAY
IN THE COOLER POST FRONTAL AIRMASS. IF SKIES CLEAR ENOUGH FOG IS
POSSIBLE AT TRK LATE TONIGHT SINCE THEY DID GET A BURST OF RAIN THIS
AFTERNOON. CS
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
STRONG WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES IN. INCREASING MOISTURE OVER THE SIERRA AND ALONG THE
SIERRA FRONT HAVE HELPED TO INCREASE THE HUMIDITY IN THE RENO-CARSON
CITY-MINDEN AREAS. THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE WESTERN NEVADA
SIERRA FRONT WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 3PM THIS AFTERNOON.
FURTHER EAST, DRIER CONDITIONS AND STRONG WINDS WILL KEEP THE RED
FLAG WARNING IN PLACE THROUGH 8PM THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH WESTERN NEVADA THIS EVENING WITH
DIMINISHING WINDS, GOOD RECOVERY AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.
HOON
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING NVZ003-005.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR LAKE TAHOE
IN NVZ002.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING NVZ453-459.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING NVZ001-004.
CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING CAZ070-071.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING CAZ073.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR LAKE TAHOE
IN CAZ072.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
200 PM PDT SAT OCT 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASED CLOUDS ALONG WITH A
COOLING TREND AND STRONG WINDS TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INLAND BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BRINGING A RETURN TO WARMER
CONDITIONS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER TROUGH MOVED OVER CALIFORNIA THIS
MORNING...BRINGING BREEZY CONDITIONS TO MUCH OF THE AREA AND RAIN
TO MAINLY MERCED AND FRESNO COUNTIES. A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY
DRAPED ACROSS THE WESTERN EDGE OF MERCED COUNTY AND IS FORECAST
TO MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT BREEZY SOUTH WINDS WERE PRESENT...WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 15 AND
20 MPH COMMON THROUGH THE VALLEY. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME
WEST TO NORTHWEST AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 15 AND
30 MPH ACROSS THE VALLEY. AS FORECAST...THE LINE OF RAIN MOVING
INTO MERCED COUNTY DISSIPATED QUITE SIGNIFICANTLY...BUT NOT
BEFORE DROPPING A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. SAN LUIS DAM REPORTED
0.02" WHILE GUSTINE IN MERCED COUNTY AND THE PANOCHE ROAD RAWS IN
FRESNO COUNTY EACH PICKED UP 0.01"
THIS RAIN IS FORECAST TO BE SPOTTY AT BEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS...WITH MUCH OF THE FOCUS OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY. THE HRRR AND HIGH RES ARW AND WELL
AS HIGH RES NMM ARE ALL IN AGREEMENT THAT THE VALLEY COULD SEE
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FROM FRESNO COUNTY NORTHWARD THROUGH
APPROXIMATELY 5 PM PDT...WHILE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA NEVADA INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.
BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
OUT OF THE AREA...WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT...RESULTING IN UPSLOPE CLOUDINESS IN KERN COUNTY. THE HIGH
RES MODELS PICK UP ON THIS WELL...INDICATING A FEW HUNDREDTH OF
DRIZZLE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
AFTER SUNDAY MORNING...UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW IS FORECAST TO
PREVAIL OVER THE REGION...AIDING IN THE COOLING TREND OVER THE
REGION. SUNDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE VALLEY WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 70S...WHILE ON MONDAY TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL ANOTHER FEW DEGREES TO THE LOW 70S. MONDAY`S TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF OCTOBER.
OTHERWISE...A SUBTLE WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON TUESDAY AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA INTO THURSDAY. BY
WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM ONCE AGAIN INTO THE
80S.
QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE END OF THE
WEEK...AS THE ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST IS INDICATING ANOTHER SHOT OF
RAIN FOR THE AREA BEGINNING AS EARLY AS FRIDAY...CONTINUING INTO
THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE MEASURE OF PREDICTABILITY WITH THE
ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST IS STILL VERY LOW...SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE
REMAINS VERY LOW AT THIS TIME. REGARDLESS...WE WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND FOR FRESNO COUNTY NORTHWARD.
&&
.AVIATION...
STRONG WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 KNOTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
NEVADA CREST AT TIMES THRU 06Z SUNDAY. ALSO...LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS
IN CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SIERRA THRU 06Z. AREAS OF
MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS IN UPSLOPE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ACROSS
VALLEY FACING SLOPES FROM 06Z THRU 18Z SUN. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.
&&
.CERTAINTY...
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS LOW.
THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORDS
SITE DATE HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR
KFAT 10-25 91:1966 61:1998 62:1982 36:1971
KFAT 10-26 89:2003 57:2004 58:1927 35:1939
KFAT 10-27 89:2003 58:1896 61:1987 35:1970
KBFL 10-25 94:1917 62:1939 66:1982 35:1899
KBFL 10-26 92:2003 58:1996 61:1959 35:1939
KBFL 10-27 99:1906 56:2004 64:1987 34:1919
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...RILEY
AVN/FW...BSO
SYNOPSIS...MOLINA
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1053 AM PDT SAT OCT 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A PACIFIC STORM WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA TODAY
BEFORE LIFTING QUICKLY NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD
GRADUALLY DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED RAIN BANDS... COOLER UNSTABLE AIR WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AS WELL...ESPECIALLY FROM THE SANTA
CRUZ MOUNTAINS NORTHWARD. DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
SUNDAY WITH A WARMING TREND BEGINNING MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
REBUILDS ALONG THE COAST.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 08:35 AM PDT SATURDAY...FINE TUNING DETAILS IN
THE FORECAST FOR TODAY AND THIS EVENING. FRONTAL BAND IS
PROGRESSING EASTWARD AND HAS MARCHED INTO EAST BAY AND EXTENDS
SOUTH INTO MONTEREY COUNTY. GOOD BREAK IN PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH SF BAY LOOKING FOR A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER BEFORE
COOLER MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS MOVES ONSHORE. BACKED OFF
PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER SOMEWHAT THIS MORNING CENTRAL AND
NORTH BAY.
BROAD BRUSHED MUCH OF AREA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EVEN
NUMEROUS SHOWERS NORTH BAY THIS AFTERNOON AS BREAKS IN CLOUDS AND
SOLAR HEATING WORK ON THE MOIST DESTABILIZING AIR MASS. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CARDS AS WELL FROM ABOUT SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS
NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE OF ANY THREAT OF THUNDER
INTO THE BAY AREA WOULD BE MID AFTERNOON THRU EARLY EVENING. NORTH BAY
COULD EASILY SEE THUNDER ANYTIME THIS AFTERNOON. WOULD NOT RULE
OUT SMALL HAIL WITH SOME OF THE STORMS GIVEN RELATIVELY HIGH CAPE
VALUES. NAM FORECAST SOUNDING FOR STS THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS CAPES
OVER 500J WHICH IS PRETTY IMPRESSIVE FOR THIS AREA...BUT HELICITY
IS MUCH LOWER THAN WAS FORECAST YESTERDAY. WIND SHEAR STILL PRETTY
STRONG...BUT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR BREAKS DOWN ABOUT THE TIME
CONVECTION GETS GOING.
WIND ADVISORY IS MARGINAL GIVEN CURRENT WIND SPEEDS AND TREND IN
WIND WILL BE DOWNWARD THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN POTENTIAL IMPACTS WITH
DROUGHT STRESSED TREES AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT WINDS FOR SOME TIME
NOW...WILL LEAVE THE ADVISORY RIDE FOR NOW WITH GUSTS OVER 35 MPH
STILL LIKELY IN ELEVATED TERRAIN.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 02:28 AM PDT SATURDAY...THE FORECAST
FOCUS TODAY IS ON RAIN CHANCES AND PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS
AND ANY SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
AS OF 09Z...A LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 40N/130W IS WELL EVIDENT
ON IR SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD TODAY...AND INTO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON BY 00Z SUN.
CURRENT RADAR SHOWS AN INITIAL BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS MOVING INTO
THE COASTAL NORTH BAY PRESENTLY. MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO BE
FOR LIGHT RAIN TO PUSH QUICKLY THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING.
TIMING IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT FROM PREVIOUS RUNS WHICH INDICATES
THAT SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE IMMEDIATE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
BY 12Z AND THE MONTEREY BAY AREA AROUND 15Z. HRRR INDICATES JUST A
QUICK SHOT...ABOUT 3-5 HOURS...OF LIGHT RAIN WITH RAPID MOVING
FRONTAL BANDS. AFTER THESE BANDS CLEAR THERE WILL BE A FEW HOURS
OF DRY WEATHER AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES WITH COLD ADVECTION
NOTED. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE BASIC INGREDIENTS NEEDED FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER
THE NORTH BAY. AN ANALYSIS OF FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWED A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH SOME SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY.
THE PROFILE REMAINS MOIST ENOUGH TO SUPPORT CONVECTION AS WELL.
THERE WILL BE A VIGOROUS WIND FIELD WITH 0-6KM SHEAR IN EXCESS OF
30KTS AND NOTED LOW LEVEL SHEAR AS WELL. IN ADDITION...A JET
STREAK WILL PASS THROUGH NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND LEAVE THE NORTH
BAY IN THE FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THE
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED HOWEVER NOTING
500 MB HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE AT THAT LEVEL.
THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT LIFT AND INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT SCATTERED
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE NORTH BAY
ESPECIALLY...WITH ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE EVEN AS FAR SOUTH AS
THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS. AGREE WITH SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK OF MARGINAL
SEVERE THREAT IN THE NORTH BAY...AND THEIR FORECAST OF POTENTIAL
LOW TOPPED SUPERCELL STRUCTURE IS REASONABLE GIVEN LOW FREEZING
HEIGHTS AND AMPLE SHEAR. NOTED FAVORABLE HODOGRAPH AS WELL TO
SUPPORT THIS FORECAST. LOW FREEZING HEIGHT WILL SUPPORT SMALL HAIL
POTENTIAL. SHEAR BECOMES MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL AFTER 21Z...AND NOTED
STORM MOTION WILL BE QUICK FROM THE SOUTHWEST. 0-6KM MEAN WIND OF
35-40KTS BY 21Z TO ALSO INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS IN
STORMS.
OTHER FACTOR OF NOTE TODAY IS WIND ADVISORY WHICH HAS BEEN
EXTENDED A FEW HOURS IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN. MARGINAL EVENT WILL
HAVE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GREATER IMPACT GIVEN THAT IT IS THE FIRST
WIND OF THE SEASON...AND DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE PRODUCED MORE DEAD
OR DYING TREES AND VEGETATION THIS YEAR. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH OR HIGHER IN THE HIGH TERRAIN AND COAST. CURRENT
GUSTS ALREADY NEAR 50 MPH IN SOME AREAS SO THIS LOOKS REASONABLE.
HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO RISE OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW EXITS THE AREA.
SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT AND DRYING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA AND
PRODUCE WARMING TEMPERATURES. BUT COOL NIGHTTIME LOWS EXPECTED IN
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE WARMING TREND. LIKELY TO SEE MANY
UPPER 30S IN THE FAVORED COOL INTERIOR VALLEYS. ESPECIALLY IN THE
NORTH BAY AND ALSO INTERIOR MONTEREY COUNTY.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 4:45 AM PDT SATURDAY...A PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CONTINUES TO PUSH INLAND THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT RAIN IMPACTING
THE MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS. FURTHER NORTH...RAIN SHOWERS ARE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH INLAND THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE NORTH BAY TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS
WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON AND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
IN WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES DIMINISH
THROUGH THE LATE EVENING.
VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING BENEATH SHOWER ACTIVITY. WIND SPEEDS WILL LIKELY
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOME MORE WESTERLY THROUGH THE
EVENING. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING BENEATH SHOWER ACTIVITY. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AFTER 21Z WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WESTERLY WIND SPEEDS.
WINDS BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT WITH PATCHY STRATUS POSSIBLE...YET
WILL KEEP SCT CLOUDS AT THIS TIME. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 09:10 AM PDT SATURDAY...A STRONG SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE OREGON COAST WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD TODAY...RESULTING IN STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH AND SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN WAKE OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE REGION TODAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...WIND ADVISORY...NORTH BAY COAST AND MOUNTAINS
WIND ADVISORY...SAN MATEO AND SANTA CRUZ COUNTY COASTS
WIND ADVISORY...SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS
SCA...SF BAY SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 3 PM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 PM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 PM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 PM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 PM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 PM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM 2 PM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM FROM 2 PM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM FROM 2 PM
GLW...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 2 PM
GLW...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM UNTIL 2 PM
GLW...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM UNTIL 2 PM
SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: KBB
AVIATION/MARINE: RGASS
VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RENO NV
1045 AM PDT SAT OCT 25 2014
.AVIATION UPDATE...
NOT EXACTLY THE MOST PLEASANT DAY FOR FLYING WITH STRONG GRADIENT
WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH MID-EVENING. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE
TAFS IS MEDIUM TO HIGH. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS POTENTIAL FOR
MOUNTAIN WAVE AND DOWNSLOPE WIND ENHANCEMENTS AT RNO/CXP FROM
23Z-03Z AS WINDS ALOFT TURN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. IF THIS HAPPENS
WINDS AT THE SURFACE WOULD TURN MORE SSE BUT JUST OFF THE SURFACE
STRONG SW WINDS OF 50KTS WOULD RESULT IN APPRECIABLE LLWS AT
RNO/CXP. HRRR SHOWING THIS SIGNATURE CLEARLY IN LATEST RUNS. OVERALL
THE PROBABILITY OF THIS SCENARIO PANNING OUT IS ABOUT 60% SO HAVE
INCLUDED IN THE 18Z TAFS. CS
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE WEST COAST WILL MOVE INLAND TODAY, BRINGING
A PERIOD OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH LIGHT RAIN AND MOUNTAIN
SNOW. COOLER CONDITIONS WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
EARLY SUNDAY WITH MILDER AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A COLD-FRONTAL RAIN BAND ALONG THE NORTHERN
CA COAST THIS MORNING, MOVING EAST AS EXPECTED. AS SUCH, THE
FORECAST IS ON TRACK FOR THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE EAST OF THE
SIERRA BY NOON AND INTO EASTERN NV THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG SOUTH
WIND GUSTS ARE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS SIERRA RIDGES AND HAVE
ALREADY SURFACED IN SOME SIERRA VALLEYS. ELSEWHERE. A SUDDEN ONSET
OF STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL SURFACE EARLY THIS MORNING AS SHALLOW
MORNING INVERSIONS QUICKLY MIX OUT. COMMUNITIES SHOULD PREPARE
FOR GUSTS 40-55 MPH TODAY, AND UP TO 65 MPH OR HIGHER FOR WIND
PRONE LOCATIONS. THESE WINDS WILL CREATE A TRAVEL HAZARD FOR HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES, HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS ON TAHOE AND
PYRAMID LAKES, AND LOW VISIBILITIES DUE TO BLOWING DUST IN THE NV
BASIN AND RANGE. WIND ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT TODAY FOR EASTERN
SIERRA AND WESTERN NV ZONES.
COMPUTER MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE FRONTAL PRECIPITATION BAND
FALLING APART AS IT MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN SIERRA AND WESTERN
NV. HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED, BUT THE FRONTAL BAND
WILL BRING A PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION TO SIERRA VALLEYS, BUT WITH
PRECIPITATION RATES DROPPING OFF QUICKLY EAST OF THE CREST. STORM
TOTALS THROUGH TONIGHT COULD REACH AROUND 0.75 INCHES NEAR THE
CREST IN PLUMAS AND LASSEN COUNTIES BUT WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY
WITH LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED IN WESTERN NV VALLEYS.
SNOW LEVELS CURRENTLY AT 8000-9000 FEET WILL LOWER TO 7000-7500
FEET TONIGHT. HOWEVER, BY THE TIME SNOW LEVELS DROP BELOW 8000 FEET
TONIGHT, MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE DIMINISHED BUT AN
INCH OR TWO OF SNOW MAY ACCUMULATE NEAR THE NORTHERN SIERRA CREST.
SUNDAY MORNING WILL BRING A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS GENERALLY
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 AS THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH, WITH
DRIER MORE STABLE AIR ALOFT MOVING IN FOR AN END TO ANY SHOWERS
BY AFTERNOON. IF SKIES REMAIN CLEAR SUNDAY NIGHT (HIGH CLOUDS IN
SOME MODELS), WE COULD FINALLY SEE A WIDESPREAD FREEZE WHICH
WOULD INCLUDE THE LOWER VALLEYS. JCM
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
SOME CHANGES ARE EVIDENT IN THE GUIDANCE THIS MORNING FOR NEXT WEEK,
BUT THEY ARE NOT HUGE CHANGES. THE ONE NOTICEABLE THING THIS MORNING
IS BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TROUGH FOR LATE WEEK/NEXT WEEKEND. A FEW
MINOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE BASED ON THE LATEST THINKING.
FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES HAVE TRENDED NORTH
WITH THE JET OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THEY NOW SHOW A LIMITED
EFFECT FROM THE TRAILING FRONT NEAR THE OREGON BORDER. WINDS ALOFT
ARE WEAKER THIS MORNING AND THE THREAT FOR PRECIP HAS ALSO BEEN
REDUCED AMONGST THE MODELS. SINCE THIS TREND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
AMONGST THE MODELS, TRIMMED BACK POPS FURTHER NORTH TO NEAR THE
OREGON BORDER.
AS FOR LATE WEEK, THE MODELS ARE COMING INTO A COMPROMISE SOLUTION
FROM THE 00Z FRIDAY EC/GFS SOLUTIONS. THE EC HAS SPED UP THIS
MORNING AND THE GFS SLOWED DOWN. THE EC ENSEMBLE IS ALSO SHOWING
CONSIDERABLY LESS SPREAD THIS MORNING WITH THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY NOW
IN THE DEPTH OF THE TROUGH FOR LATE WEEK AND NOT AS MUCH IN THE
TIMING. BOTH MODELS HAVE A DECENT RIDGE THURSDAY THAT MOVES EAST
SLOWLY FRIDAY. THE GFS BRINGS THE NEXT TROUGH IN FRIDAY NIGHT WHILE
THE EC WAITS UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT. THE EC ENSEMBLE REPRESENTS A GOOD
COMPROMISE SO HELD OFF ANY CHANCE POPS UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY.
WHILE THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY, IT IS LESS THAN
YESTERDAY AND CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR THE 7-8 DAY PERIOD.
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES, THEY WILL RISE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE
BY MIDWEEK WITH HIGHS NEAR 70 IN WESTERN NEVADA AND LOW 60S IN
SIERRA VALLEYS. TEMPS WILL COOL FOR NEXT WEEKEND AS THE TROUGH MOVES
IN.
&&
.AVIATION...
WINDS ALOFT CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT. FOR MAIN TERMINALS IN SIERRA/EXTREME WESTERN NEVADA,
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE THROUGH 21Z WITH PEAK GUSTS NEAR 40 KTS.
LLWS IS LIKELY WITH MTN WAVE TURBULENCE DURING THIS TIME AS WELL.
FURTHER EAST NEAR HIGHWAY 95, PEAK WINDS TO BE FROM 18-00Z.
OTHER CONCERN WILL BE PRECIP WHICH WILL START IN WESTERN LASSEN
COUNTY BY 18Z AND HIT THE TAHOE BASIN AROUND 21Z. MAIN BAND WILL
ONLY LAST 2-3 HRS WITH MVFR CIGS/VIS LIKELY AND LCL IFR CONDS IN THE
SIERRA. FOR WRN NEVADA, EXPECT MAINLY VFR IN ISOLD/SCT -SHRA AT BEST.
OCNL -SHRA TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT MAINLY NORTH OF
KTRK/KRNO WITH LCL MVFR CIGS IN THE SIERRA.
DRY WEATHER RETURNS AFTER 12Z SUNDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHTER
WINDS, PRIMARILY WNW WITH PEAK GUSTS 20 KTS. WALLMANN
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT ON THE RIDGES AND MID SLOPES.
RH RECOVERY HAS BEEN POOR SO FAR WITH MANY LOCATIONS STILL IN THE
TEENS ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-80. AS THE COLD
FRONT NEARS, WINDS WILL INCREASE FURTHER WITH PEAK GUSTS TO 55 MPH
FROM THE S-SW ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA. RH WILL BE LOWEST SOUTH OF I-80
WITH MINIMUMS 10-20%. THE RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS ON TRACK.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE SIERRA FRONT
(ZONE 450) AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. RH WILL ALSO INCREASE
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT. WINDS WILL NOT WEAKEN UNTIL AFTER 00Z
FOR THE HIGHWAY 95 CORRIDOR FURTHER EAST AS THE FRONT WILL TAKE
LONGER TO GET THERE. BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT, EXPECT GOOD RH
RECOVERY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. WALLMANN
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING
NVZ003-005.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR LAKE TAHOE
IN NVZ002.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING
NVZ453-459.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING
NVZ001-004.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM PDT THIS
AFTERNOON NVZ450.
CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING
CAZ070-071.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING
CAZ073.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR LAKE TAHOE
IN CAZ072.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
920 AM PDT SAT OCT 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A PACIFIC STORM WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA TODAY
BEFORE LIFTING QUICKLY NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD
GRADUALLY DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED RAIN BANDS... COOLER UNSTABLE AIR WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AS WELL...ESPECIALLY FROM THE SANTA
CRUZ MOUNTAINS NORTHWARD. DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
SUNDAY WITH A WARMING TREND BEGINNING MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
REBUILDS ALONG THE COAST.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 08:35 AM PDT SATURDAY...FINE TUNING DETAILS IN
THE FORECAST FOR TODAY AND THIS EVENING. FRONTAL BAND IS
PROGRESSING EASTWARD AND HAS MARCHED INTO EAST BAY AND EXTENDS
SOUTH INTO MONTEREY COUNTY. GOOD BREAK IN PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH SF BAY LOOKING FOR A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER BEFORE
COOLER MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS MOVES ONSHORE. BACKED OFF
PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER SOMEWHAT THIS MORNING CENTRAL AND
NORTH BAY.
BROAD BRUSHED MUCH OF AREA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EVEN
NUMEROUS SHOWERS NORTH BAY THIS AFTERNOON AS BREAKS IN CLOUDS AND
SOLAR HEATING WORK ON THE MOIST DESTABILIZING AIRMASS. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CARDS AS WELL FROM ABOUT SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS
NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE OF ANY THREAT OF THUNDER
INTO THE BAY AREA WOULD BE MID AFTERNOON THRU EARLY EVENING. NORTH BAY
COULD EASILY SEE THUNDER ANYTIME THIS AFTERNOON. WOULD NOT RULE
OUT SMALL HAIL WITH SOME OF THE STORMS GIVEN RELATIVELY HIGH CAPE
VALUES. NAM FORECAST SOUNDING FOR STS THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS CAPES
OVER 500J WHICH IS PRETTY IMPRESSIVE FOR THIS AREA...BUT HELICITY
IS MUCH LOWER THAN WAS FORECAST YESTERDAY. WIND SHEAR STILL PRETTY
STRONG...BUT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR BREAKS DOWN ABOUT THE TIME
CONVECTION GETS GOING.
WIND ADVISORY IS MARGINAL GIVEN CURRENT WIND SPEEDS AND TREND IN
WIND WILL BE DOWNWARD THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN POTENTIAL IMPACTS WITH
DROUGHT STRESSED TREES AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT WINDS FOR SOME TIME
NOW...WILL LEAVE THE ADVISORY RIDE FOR NOW WITH GUSTS OVER 35 MPH
STILL LIKELY IN ELEVATED TERRAIN.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 02:28 AM PDT SATURDAY...
THE FORECAST FOCUS TODAY IS ON RAIN CHANCES AND PROBABILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS AND ANY SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
AS OF 09Z...A LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 40N/130W IS WELL EVIDENT
ON IR SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD TODAY...AND INTO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON BY 00Z SUN.
CURRENT RADAR SHOWS AN INITIAL BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS MOVING INTO
THE COASTAL NORTH BAY PRESENTLY. MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO BE
FOR LIGHT RAIN TO PUSH QUICKLY THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING.
TIMING IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT FROM PREVIOUS RUNS WHICH INDICATES
THAT SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE IMMEDIATE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
BY 12Z AND THE MONTEREY BAY AREA AROUND 15Z. HRRR INDICATES JUST A
QUICK SHOT...ABOUT 3-5 HOURS...OF LIGHT RAIN WITH RAPID MOVING
FRONTAL BANDS. AFTER THESE BANDS CLEAR THERE WILL BE A FEW HOURS
OF DRY WEATHER AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES WITH COLD ADVECTION
NOTED. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE BASIC INGREDIENTS NEEDED FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER
THE NORTH BAY. AN ANALYSIS OF FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWED A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH SOME SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY.
THE PROFILE REMAINS MOIST ENOUGH TO SUPPORT CONVECTION AS WELL.
THERE WILL BE A VIGOROUS WIND FIELD WITH 0-6KM SHEAR IN EXCESS OF
30KTS AND NOTED LOW LEVEL SHEAR AS WELL. IN ADDITION...A JET
STREAK WILL PASS THROUGH NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND LEAVE THE NORTH
BAY IN THE FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THE
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED HOWEVER NOTING
500 MB HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE AT THAT LEVEL.
THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT LIFT AND INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT SCATTERED
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE NORTH BAY
ESPECIALLY...WITH ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE EVEN AS FAR SOUTH AS
THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS. AGREE WITH SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK OF MARGINAL
SEVERE THREAT IN THE NORTH BAY...AND THEIR FORECAST OF POTENTIAL
LOW TOPPED SUPERCELL STRUCTURE IS REASONABLE GIVEN LOW FREEZING
HEIGHTS AND AMPLE SHEAR. NOTED FAVORABLE HODOGRAPH AS WELL TO
SUPPORT THIS FORECAST. LOW FREEZING HEIGHT WILL SUPPORT SMALL HAIL
POTENTIAL. SHEAR BECOMES MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL AFTER 21Z...AND NOTED
STORM MOTION WILL BE QUICK FROM THE SOUTHWEST. 0-6KM MEAN WIND OF
35-40KTS BY 21Z TO ALSO INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS IN
STORMS.
OTHER FACTOR OF NOTE TODAY IS WIND ADVISORY WHICH HAS BEEN
EXTENDED A FEW HOURS IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN. MARGINAL EVENT WILL
HAVE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GREATER IMPACT GIVEN THAT IT IS THE FIRST
WIND OF THE SEASON...AND DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE PRODUCED MORE DEAD
OR DYING TREES AND VEGETATION THIS YEAR. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH OR HIGHER IN THE HIGH TERRAIN AND COAST. CURRENT
GUSTS ALREADY NEAR 50 MPH IN SOME AREAS SO THIS LOOKS REASONABLE.
HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO RISE OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW EXITS THE AREA.
SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT AND DRYING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA AND
PRODUCE WARMING TEMPERATURES. BUT COOL NIGHTTIME LOWS EXPECTED IN
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE WARMING TREND. LIKELY TO SEE MANY
UPPER 30S IN THE FAVORED COOL INTERIOR VALLEYS. ESPECIALLY IN THE
NORTH BAY AND ALSO INTERIOR MONTEREY COUNTY.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 4:45 AM PDT SATURDAY...RAIN AND MVFR CIGS MOVING
INTO THE AREA WITH STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS BLOWING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED IN THE SFO BAY AREA AROUND 16Z
WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL KEEP A THREAT OF SHOWERS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN STS. WINDS
WILL SWITCH TO THE WEST AFTER 02Z IN MOST AREAS.
VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR THROUGH 21Z. LIGHT RAIN TURNING TO SHOWERS
AFTER 16Z. CIGS RISING INTO VFR RANGE AFTER 21Z. SHOWERS ENDING
WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST AFTER 02Z.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...CIGS COULD LOWER TO MVFR RANGE AFTER
14Z AS RAIN SHOWERS MOVE INTO THE MRY BAY AREA. STRONGEST
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE IN THE SALINAS VALLEYS WITH WINDS TO 20
KT. WINDS EXPECTED TO SWITCH TO SOUTHWESTERLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 09:10 AM PDT SATURDAY...A STRONG SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE OREGON COAST WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD TODAY...RESULTING IN STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH AND SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN WAKE OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE REGION TODAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...WIND ADVISORY...NORTH BAY COAST AND MOUNTAINS
WIND ADVISORY...SAN MATEO AND SANTA CRUZ COUNTY COASTS
WIND ADVISORY...SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS
SCA...SF BAY SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 3 PM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 PM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 PM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 PM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 PM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 PM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM 2 PM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM FROM 2 PM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM FROM 2 PM
GLW...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 2 PM
GLW...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM UNTIL 2 PM
GLW...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM UNTIL 2 PM
SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: KBB
AVIATION/MARINE: RGASS
VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
620 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND MAY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHOWERS. COOL AND BLUSTERY WEATHER WILL
FOLLOW ON SUNDAY WITH THE CHANCE OF A SPOT SHOWER. DRY WEATHER
PREVAILS EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH A WARMING TREND BY WEDNESDAY. A
COLD FRONT MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS LATE WEDNESDAY. COOLER AIR
FOLLOWS BEHIND THE FRONT FOR LATER IN THE WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MAY BRING WET WEATHER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...BEFORE COLDER AIR ARRIVES FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
620 PM UPDATE...
RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS BAND OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT MOVING E
FROM NY STATE. HRRR HAS AN EXCELLENT HANDLE ON THIS ACTIVITY AND
BRINGS IT THROUGH MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY TONIGHT...
STARTING IN WEST AROUND 8 PM AND CLOSER TO 11 PM IN E. ALL OF THIS
PUSHES OFFSHORE BY 2 OR 3 AM.
ADJUSTED POPS TO REFLECT THIS THINKING. HRRR DOES SHOW MOST OF
THIS STAYING ALONG AND N OF ROUTE 2 CORRIDOR AS DISCUSSED
EARLIER...WHILE ACTIVITY ALONG SOUTHERN EDGE SHOULD TEND TO
DISSIPATE SOMEWHAT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...ONLY
A FEW HUNDRETHS AT MOST.
BEHIND FRONT...DECENT COLD ADVECTION GETS UNDERWAY ON INCREASING
W/NW WINDS. LOWS IN 40S TO NEAR 50 LOOK GOOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER AHEAD FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. SEE A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WHICH MAY
TRIGGER A FEW DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS ON SUNDAY. BIGGEST QUESTION
IS THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE...BUT SOUNDINGS SHOW THERE IS JUST ENOUGH.
ASIDE FROM A FEW SHOWERS...ANTICIPATE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WHICH WILL
LIMIT DIURNAL HEATING. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH
60 IN MANY LOCATIONS. SUNDAY WILL ALSO SEE STRONG GUSTY WESTERLY
WINDS OF 20-30 MPH DUE TO STEEP LAPSE RATES AND THE STRONG CAA STILL
ALOFT. WENT A FEW MPH HIGHER THEN GUIDANCE AT IT SEEMS THAT MODELS
ARE UNDERDOING THE GUST POTENTIAL WITHIN THE PATTERN. APPEARS THAT
THE GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE ON TRACK...ESP ON WHAT IS OCCURRING
RIGHT NOW.
WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIE DOWN OVERNIGHT BUT STILL REMAIN A TAD GUSTY.
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST. TEMPS MAY DROP TO THE LOW 40S AS GUSTY WINDS
WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* DRY MON/TUE WITH WARMING TREND
* MILD WED WITH FEW AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS
* A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY BY END OF WEEK BUT TURNING COLDER NEXT WEEKEND
DETAILS...
MON AND TUE...
RIDGING BUILDS OVER NORTHEAST IN ADVANCE OF UPPER LOW LIFTING ACROSS
UPPER GREAT LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY OVER MID ATLANTIC STATES
WILL MAINTAIN DRY BUT BRISK W/NW FLOW MON WHICH DIMINISHES AND
BECOMES MORE S/SW TUE AS HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE. HIGHS STAY IN 50S MON
BUT SHOULD REACH LOW-MID 60S TUE WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE
BASED UPON MODEL 2M TEMPS.
WED...
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING UNSEASONABLY MILD SW FLOW TO
REGION. DESPITE FACT 12Z MODELS BRING FRONT INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
DURING MORNING AND MOVE IT OFFSHORE WED EVENING....MOISTURE IS
LIMITED AND DYNAMICS ARE RATHER WEAK ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
THEREFORE ONLY EXPECTING SOME CLOUDINESS AND PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS.
THIS SHOULD STILL ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH 60S IF NOT 70 ACROSS PARTS OF
EASTERN MA SINCE COOL AIR LAGS WELL BEHIND FRONT.
THU...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM OH VALLEY TO MID ATLANTIC COAST. DRIER NW
FLOW PREVAILS WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN 50S.
FRI AND SAT...
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES DRAMATICALLY AS MODELS STRUGGLE WITH
DEVELOPMENT OF BROAD EASTERN US TROUGH/CLOSED LOW FROM COMBINATION
OF PACIFIC ENERGY AND UPPER LOW E OF HUDSON BAY. 12Z ECMWF IS MUCH
FARTHER S ACROSS CAROLINAS AND DEEPER WITH ITS UPPER LOW BY NEXT
WEEKEND...AS COMPARED TO 12Z GFS WHICH TAKES UPPER LOW ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS HAS IMPLICATIONS ON HOW EVERYTHING PLAYS
OUT FRI INTO SAT WITH ECMWF PAINTING A MUCH WETTER SCENARIO THAN GFS
WHICH SHOWS MORE PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM EXITING NEW ENGLAND SAT. FOR NOW
WE WILL USE BLEND OF MODELS TO IRON OUT DIFFERENCES WHICH GIVES
CHANCE POPS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...BUT WE MAY NEED TO EXTEND MENTION
OF PRECIP INTO SAT SHOULD ECMWF SOLUTION BECOME MORE LIKELY. DOES
LOOK LIKE SHOT OF COLDER AIR ARRIVES NEXT WEEKEND EITHER WAY.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...VFR. BAND OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND 00Z-06Z AND MAY BRING BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS...MAINLY
ACROSS N MA AND SW NH. MAY SEE A FEW GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS TOWARD
DAYBREAK NEAR COAST.
TOMORROW...COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE IN THE MORNING BUT LOTS OF
POST FRONTAL CLOUDS IN THE BKN040 CATEGORY. LOW RISK OF A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. WEST WINDS WILL GUSTS 20-30 KT IN
THE AFTERNOON.
TOMORROW NIGHT...VFR. A FEW GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE.
KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
SHOWERS 03Z-06Z SUN BUT MORE LIKELY CONDITIONS STAY VFR.
KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MON AND TUE...VFR.
WED...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCT SHOWERS.
THU...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...
COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE WATERS 06Z-12Z WITH WNW WINDS
INCREASING TO 20-30 KT. SOUTHERN WATERS WILL SEE OCCASIONAL WNW
GALES...SO HAVE HOISTED A GALE WARNING. A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
POSSIBLE NORTHERN MA WATERS.
SUNDAY...
WNW WINDS REMAIN STRONG AT 20-30KT. ANTICIPATE WNW GALES ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN WATERS BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HAVE EXTENDED THE GALE
WARNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE GUSTS. LOW RISK OF A FEW LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE GOOD VSBY.
SUNDAY NIGHT...
WNW GALES WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE BUT GUSTS OF 30 KTS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT IN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN. OTHERWISE
GOOD VSBYS AND DRY WEATHER.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MONDAY...HIGH PRES OVER MID ATLC WILL KEEP W/NW WINDS NEAR SCA EARLY
BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH DURING AFTERNOON. SEAS NEAR 5 FT ON OUTER
WATERS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AS WELL.
TUESDAY...HIGH PRES MOVES OFF MID ATLC COAST RESULTING S/SW FLOW
ACROSS WATERS BUT WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA.
WEDNESDAY...INCREASING SW FLOW AHEAD OF COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM
GREAT LAKES. WINDS AND SEAS MAY REACH SCA...MAINLY ON OPEN S COASTAL
WATERS...BEFORE FRONT BRINGS WIND SHIFT TO NW DURING EVENING.
NOTHING MORE THAN FEW SHOWERS EXPECTED WITH FRONT.
THURSDAY...HIGH PRES BUILDS FROM OH VALLEY TO MID ATLC COAST...
BRINGING DIMINISHING NW WINDS AND SEAS.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
ANZ232>235-237-254>256.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ230-231-236-
250-251.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN/JWD
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN/JWD
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...JWD
AVIATION...DUNTEN/JWD
MARINE...DUNTEN/JWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
422 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY RAIN
SHOWERS. IN ITS WAKE...A BRISK AND COOLER DAY IS EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS EXPECTED. DRIER AND WARMER
CONDITIONS RETURN ON MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE
REGION. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ARRIVES LATER TUESDAY EVENING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT...SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA ARE
UNDER A GREAT DEAL OF SUNSHINE AS TEMPERATURES HAVE RESPONDED
NICELY...WELL INTO THE 60S FOR THE VALLEY LOCATIONS AND UPPER 50S
FOR THE TERRAIN. FOR THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST
AREA...CLOUDS HAVE QUICKLY INCREASED AS REGIONAL RADARS SHOW AN
APPROXIMATELY 100 MILE WIDE BAND OF SCT-BKN SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM
THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY INTO THE TUG HILL AND EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO. AS A POWERFUL UPPER JET /OVER 150KTS/ DIVES THROUGH
THE CENTRAL LAKES REGION AND LEFT EXIT REGION DYNAMICS INTO
EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NE...EXPECTATION IS FOR THESE SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE EXPANDING INTO THIS EVENING. LATEST HRRR REFLECTIVITY
FORECAST POINT TOWARD THIS INITIAL BAND OF SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION WITH ANOTHER BATCH DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF
THIS INITIAL ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY BE DUE TO THE
UPPER SHORT WAVE FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS UPSTATE NY.
FURTHERMORE...AS H850 TEMPS DROP BACK TO OR BELOW 0C...LAKE EFFECT
ENHANCEMENTS WILL LIKELY AID IN THESE SHOWERS AS WELL. LOOKING
CLOSER AT THUNDER POTENTIAL...EARLIER TODAY WE DID OBSERVE A
COUPLE OF CG/S JUST NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. SHOWALTER VALUES AT
THAT TIME WERE BETWEEN POSITIVE 1-2C. AT THIS TIME...WE WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER ACROSS
THE DACKS REGION WHERE LAPSE RATES WILL BE A LITTLE STEEPER AND
ENHANCED LIFT FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER JET ORIENTATION.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL VARY DUE TO CLOUD COVERAGE AS THERE WILL BE
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...HOWEVER...WIND MAGNITUDES WILL LIKELY REMAIN
ELEVATED. GUIDANCE NUMBERS A TAD WARMER AS WE WILL BLEND MOS WITH
PREVIOUS MIN TEMP GRIDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY...AS MENTIONED IN THE EXCELLENT PREVIOUS FORECAST
DISCUSSION...THE POTENT UPPER JET CORE WILL BE OVER THE REGION AS
STRONG H500 SHORT WAVE DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS UPSTATE NY. THIS
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ADDITIONAL CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION WITH THE BEST CONCENTRATION OF THOSE SHOWERS INTO THE
TERRAIN /ESPECIALLY DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO/. H850 TEMPS PLUNGE
BACK TO BELOW 0C WITH FAIRLY STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
FURTHERMORE...WIND MAGNITUDES NEAR THE MIXING LAYER HEIGHTS NEAR
H875 SUGGEST WE WILL EFFECTIVELY TAP INTO 30KT WINDS. SO A RATHER
BRISK DAY IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH THOSE SHOWERS. DUE TO THE
CLOUDS...SHOWERS AND BRISK WINDS...TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 50S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND
40S ELSEWHERE.
SUNDAY NIGHT...DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION WITH
AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SOME SHOWERS WILL LINGER...MAINLY ACROSS
THE TERRAIN...AND AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS...SOME WET SNOW IS
POSSIBLE TO MIX IN ACROSS THE TERRAIN. CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO
BREAK UP FURTHER INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT WHICH WILL
SLOWLY SPREAD NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT. CLOUD BE RATHER CHILLY NIGHT
WITH MAINLY 30S FOR THE REGION /NEAR 40F FOR ALONG THE HUDSON/MOHAWK
RIVER BASINS/.
MONDAY...MODERATING THERMAL COLUMNS WILL BE UNDERWAY AS SURFACE
RIDGE AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT SHOULD IMPROVE OUR SKY CONDITION
FURTHER. SURFACE TEMPERATURE RESPONSE SHOULD ALLOW VALLEY
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60F FOR MID HUDSON
VALLEY LOCATIONS AND UPR 40S FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
MONDAY NIGHT...MODEL SUITE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A PASSAGE OF
A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. ISENTROPIC LIFT
INCREASES WITH THE BEST LOWERING OF THE CPD/S MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF ALBANY. IN THESE LOCATIONS...WE WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...A GENERAL INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVERAGE AS OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAIN MAINLY INTO THE 40S UNDER
INCREASING WARM ADVECTION.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE A RELATIVELY WARM DAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT...EXPECTED TO AFFECT OUR REGION TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY. SO...INTERVALS OF CLOUDS AND SUN TUESDAY WITH HIGHS
WELL INTO THE 60S.
UPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRACKS INTO THE REGION FROM
THE GREAT LAKES AND CANADA...WITH SHOWERS AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE
COLD FRONT...THEN COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE
MID 50S NORTH TO MID 60S SOUTH. TRAILING UPPER ENERGY DIVES SOUTH
OUT OF CANADA THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...POTENTIALLY BECOMING QUITE
A DYNAMIC UPPER CUT OFF LOW. HOWEVER...THE VARIOUS SETS OF GUIDANCE
SUGGEST VERY DIFFERENT TRACKS...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN POTENTIAL OBSERVED WEATHER IN OUR REGION.
FOR NOW THE RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES SEEMS TO BE TRACKING RIGHT OVER
THE INTERIOR NORTHEASTERN U.S. OR THROUGH THE CAROLINAS/VIRGINIA...
OR ANYWHERE IN BETWEEN. AS THE UPPER ENERGY DIVES SOUTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...WHEREVER IT ENDS UP...HOWEVER STRONG OR WEAK IT IS...AND
WHATEVER THE TIMING EVENTUALLY IS...GENERALLY MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN
WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL. MIDLEVEL AND HIGH CLOUDS DEVELOP
AND THICKEN AS MOISTURE IS INCREASINGLY DRAWN NORTHWARD INTO THE
DEVELOPING UPPER ENERGY...AND STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY UPPER JET
ENERGY.
SO...WITH SUCH A HUGE SPREAD IN GUIDANCE OUT IN THE 6-7 DAY TIME
FRAME...JUST GOING WITH BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES AND
PROBABILITIES FOR SHOWERS INCREASING TO CHANCE BY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY LINGERING INTO SATURDAY. SOME
POSSIBLE SNOW SHOWERS IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGHS
THURSDAY IN THE MID 40S NORTH TO MID TO UPPER 50S SOUTH. HIGHS
FRIDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S NORTH AND AROUND 50 TO LOWER 50S
SOUTH. BY SATURDAY...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO MID TO UPPER
40S SOUTH.
WILL KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR NEXT WEEKEND TO SEE IF SOMETHING
SIGNIFICANT DOES DEVELOP OR IF LIMITED UPSTREAM DATA THIS FAR OUT
CAUSED GUIDANCE TO CREATE A PHANTOM THAT MAY DISAPPEAR AS WE GET
CLOSER. THERE IS STILL QUITE A RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BROKEN SKIES WILL BECOME OVERCAST THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. CLOUD BASES GENERALLY VFR BUT MVFR AT OUR HIGHER ELEVATION
TAF SITE KPSF.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWER COVERAGE EXPECTED FROM THIS
EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS COLD FRONT AND THEN AN UPPER LEVEL
COLD POOL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. GIGS TEMPO IFR IN RAIN SHOWERS
ALTHOUGH KPSF MAY SEE BRIEF IFR.
WINDS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE WINDS
WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST WITH PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT TONIGHT AND INCREASE IN SPEED WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS ON SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-TUE: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE NIGHT-WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS DUE TO THE WET WEATHER OVER THE PAST 3 TO 4 DAYS.
A COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL IMPACT THE
REGION WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. BRISK AND
COOL CONDITIONS FOR EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND ARE
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. WEST TO NORTHWEST OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME
GUSTS IN THE 30 TO 35 MPH RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THE RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...BEFORE
SLOWLY FALLING TO 50 TO 70 PERCENT ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
RIVERS FLOWS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAINLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING INTO SUNDAY WITH
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN
INCH. SOME CONTROLLED DAM RELEASES WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACTS
IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM ON RIVER POINTS.
DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...WHICH WILL ALLOW LEVELS TO RECEDE FURTHER.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
200 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH BRISK AND COOL CONDITIONS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 150 PM...CLOUDS HAVE THINNED OUT ACROSS THE REGION AT THE
PRESENT TIME...HOWEVER...REGIONAL RADAR UPSTREAM DOES REVEAL A
BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS APPROACHING LAKE ONTARIO. IN FACT...RECENT
NLDN DETECTED ONE CG WITHIN THE PAST HOUR. PER HRRR AND CURRENT
EXTRAPOLATION OF UPSTREAM ACTIVITY...WE WILL HOLD BACK POPS/WX FOR
ANOTHER COUPLE MORE HOURS AND LEAVE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES INTO
PORTIONS OF THE DACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY.
OTHERWISE...TEMPS LOOK ON TARGET WITH ONLY MINOR UPDATES TO HOURLY
GRIDS PER OBSERVATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE BEST CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IMPACTS THE FCST AREA WITH ENOUGH QG LIFT GENERATED
FOR ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS OVER MOST OF THE REGION...AND NUMEROUS
SHOWERS OVER THE WRN DACKS/WRN MOHAWK VALLEY AS SOME LAKE MOISTURE
IS UTILIZED. AS THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION MENTIONED...THE LOW AND
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN ACROSS THE REGION WITH SMALL AMOUNTS
OF INSTABILITY /100-300 J/KG/. THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
GENERALLY IN THE 6.5-7.5C/KM RANGE ON THE NAM/GFS. A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER MAY BE POSSIBLE FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND WEST
WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE GENERAL THUNDER FCST BY SPC IN THE NEW DAY
1. THE BEST JET DYNAMICS SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 40S WITH SOME U30S OVER THE SRN DACKS...SRN GREENS
AND ERN CATSKILLS.
SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...THE POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT ACROSS
THE REGION. BY 18Z SUN...THE CLOSED H500 CIRCULATION WILL BE NEAR
NRN ME AND NEW BRUNSWICK. INSTABILITY SHOWERS WILL
OCCUR...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ONTARIO. A STRONG COLD ADVECTION REGIME WILL IMPACT ERN NY AND
WRN NEW ENGLAND WITH THE STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. H850 WINDS
INCREASE TO 35-45 KTS. DECENT MOMENTUM TRANSFER WILL FAVOR BRISK
CONDITIONS WITH W TO NW WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS IN
THE 30 TO 35 MPH RANGE. MAX TEMPS WILL RUN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO M50S IN THE VALLEYS...AND M40S
TO NEAR 50F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. THE WINDS WILL ONLY SLIGHTLY
DECREASE OVERNIGHT...SINCE A NOTICEABLE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
SET UP OVER THE AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST OF NEW BRUNSWICK TOWARDS
LABRADOR. ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. LOWS WILL BE CHILLY IN THE 30S IN MOST
LOCATIONS WITH SOME U30S TO L40S IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND CT RIVER VALLEY.
MON-MON NIGHT...MODERATING TREND FOR TEMPS AS SFC HIGH RIDGES IN
FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...AND H500 ANTICYCLONE BUILDS IN FROM
ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO OPEN THE WEEK IN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME.
H850 TEMPS SURGE BACK TO +6C TO +11C BY 00Z/TUE ACCORDING TO THE
GFS WITH TEMPS TRENDING ABOVE NORMAL BY TUE. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
INCREASE MON NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS OVER THE WRN DACKS
LATE. LOWS WILL BE MILDER IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S IN MOST
LOCATIONS...EXCEPT SOME MID AND U30S OVER SRN VT...THE
BERKSHIRES...SRN DACKS AND PARTS OF THE ERN CATSKILLS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT AMPLIFYING THE
LONGWAVE PATTERN AS WE HEAD THROUGH NEXT WEEK. RIDGING OVER THE
REGION SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST TUESDAY WITH A TROUGH RETURNING. THIS
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO GET REINFORCED LATE IN THE WEEK. DIFFERENCES
IN THE GUIDANCE GROW AS THEY DEAL WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY DIVING
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA AND ITS IMPACTS ON THE LONGWAVE
PATTERN AND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW/SYSTEM.
MILD DAY EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY WITH BROAD/DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
REGION AS RIDGING SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND TROUGH/LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACH. HIGHS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
THE LOW PASSES WELL TO OUR NORTH AND WEST WITH ITS TRAILING COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
ACCOMPANIED BY SOME SHOWERS. WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE BIT COOLER
HOWEVER TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL BY 5 TO
10 DEGREES. THE COLD FRONT MOVES GRADUALLY OFF TO OUR EAST...HOWEVER
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL NEED TO SWING THROUGH.
A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AS WE HEAD INTO
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. HIGHER PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN
ON THURSDAY WITH THE FLOW ALOFT FLAT AS THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN
SHORT WAVES. HEIGHTS EXPECTED TO BEGIN FALLING THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS RETURNING ON FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BROKEN SKIES WILL BECOME OVERCAST THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. CLOUD BASES GENERALLY VFR BUT MVFR AT OUR HIGHER ELEVATION
TAF SITE KPSF.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWER COVERAGE EXPECTED FROM THIS
EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS COLD FRONT AND THEN AN UPPER LEVEL
COLD POOL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. GIGS TEMPO IFR IN RAIN SHOWERS
ALTHOUGH KPSF MAY SEE BRIEF IFR.
WINDS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE WINDS
WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST WITH PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT TONIGHT AND INCREASE IN SPEED WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS ON SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-TUE: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE NIGHT-WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS DUE TO THE WET WEATHER OVER THE PAST 3 TO 4 DAYS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH THIS
MORNING. A COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH
FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH BRISK AND COOL CONDITIONS FOR EASTERN NEW
YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. WEST TO NORTHWEST OF 10 TO 20 MPH
WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 30 TO 35 MPH RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 45 TO 70 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
INCREASE TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...BEFORE FALLING TO 50 TO 70
PERCENT ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
RIVERS FLOWS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAINLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY WITH
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN
INCH. SOME CONTROLLED DAM RELEASES WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACTS
IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM ON RIVER POINTS.
DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL ALLOW LEVELS TO RECEDE FURTHER.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/WASULA
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
208 PM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW LARGE SCALE RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...EXTENDING NORTH INTO THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS IN PLACE OVER SE
COLORADO AND NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. A STALLED FRONT IS BISECTING OUR CWA...EXTENDING
FROM NE COLORADO TO CENTRAL KANSAS (ROUGHLY ALONG A KAKO-KGLD-
KHYS LINE).
WITH STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE AND MAIN STORM TRACK WELL NORTH OF THE
CWA...PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AGAIN
SUNDAY AND POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG TONIGHT.
REGARDING DENSE FOG...NAM/RUC/HRRR RH AND VIS FIELDS CONTINUE TO
SHOW POSSIBILITY OF DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT NORTH OF THE QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT. SREF PROBABILITIES ARE ALSO SHOWING THIS.
LOCATION OF FRONT AND MOISTURE POOLING ALONG/NORTH OF THIS FEATURE
WILL LIKELY BE CRITICAL TO DENSE FOG LOCATION...IN ADDITION NEAR
INVERSION LAYER WINDS 10-20KT MAY ALLOW FOR ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP
VIS HIGHER UNTIL LOW LEVELS COMPLETELY DECOUPLE AROUND SUNRISE.
THERE IS ALSO INDICATION FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS AND CURRENT
GFS THAT FRONT WILL BE FURTHER NORTH AND EAST WHICH WOULD ALLOW
LOWER TD VALUES TO ADVECT EASTWARD WITH SHIFT IN LOW LEVEL FLOW.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN FOG DEVELOPMENT...BUT LOCATION IS ENOUGH OF
A QUESTION TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUANCE OF ADVISORY DURING DAYTIME
UPDATE PACKAGE.
TEMP FORECAST SUNDAY IS ALSO COMPLICATED BY POSITION OF QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER TEMPS ALOFT NORTH OF THIS
FRONT. ANY LINGERING STRATUS/FOG WOULD ALSO THROW A WRENCH INTO
THINGS...ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTHEAST. OVERALL I THINK TEMPS WILL
BE VERY SIMILAR TODAY...WITH SLIGHTLY "COOLER" TEMPS NORTH OF THE
FRONT JUST LIKE TODAY. EITHER WAY TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
LOWER 80S FOR MOST PARTS OF THE CWA SUNDAY...AND IF FRONT LIFTS
NORTHEAST WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW COULD SUPPORT RECORD HIGHS IN
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 PM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014
UPPER FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AHEAD OF A
TROUGH THAT MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST MONDAY NIGHT WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW FOLLOWING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE TROUGH
WILL BE OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT.
THE UPPER TROUGH THAT COMES THROUGH HAS GOOD DYNAMICS BUT MOISTURE
IS LACKING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE DRY LOW LEVELS WITH
MARGINAL SATURATION AT MID LEVELS. ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION INTO MONDAY EVENING DUE TO THE TROUGH STILL
OVER THE AREA, THE GFS AND NAM TAKE THE BEST MOISTURE EAST OF THE FA
BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MAY BE OPTIMISTIC BUT WILL
KEEP THEM GOING. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO THE WINDY CATEGORY MONDAY
WITH GUSTS FROM 25 TO 35KTS. WIND SPEEDS COULD INCREASE TO LOW END
ADVISORY LEVELS. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT MONDAY NIGHT AND WITH
CLOUDS CLEARING AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 20S, WIDESPREAD FROST
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN COLORADO. TEMPERATURES MAY GET COLD
ENOUGH FOR A HARD FREEZE IN EASTERN COLORADO. FOR NOW WILL KEEP
FROST IN THE GRIDS AND MONITOR THE HARD FREEZE POTENTIAL.
SUBSIDENCE FOLLOWS THE EXITING TROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FA SO POPS WILL BE NIL.
MAX TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN
EASTERN COLORADO TO THE LOWER/MID 60S IN THE EASTERN FA. MIN
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 40S SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN COOL TO
THE LOWER TO MID 30S MONDAY NIGHT.
IN THE EXTENDED...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY
A RIDGE THAT WILL BUILD INTO THE ROCKIES THURSDAY AND INTO THE
PLAINS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP POPS NIL THROUGH
THIS PERIOD.
MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THIS PART OF THE
FORECAST WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S WEDNESDAY COOLING
TO THE LOWER 60S THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD COOL TO THE MID 30S. SOME FROST WILL BE
POSSIBLE AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
SLIGHTLY TO THE MID AND UPPER 30S WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1121 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. A FEW WIND GUSTS 18-20KT WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KGLD THIS
AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 12KT AT BOTH
KGLD/KMCK.
FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHCENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA LATE TONIGHT (GENERALLY AFTER 08-09Z) ALONG AND NORTH OF
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. BEST MOISTURE POOLING WILL BE NEAR
KMCK WHERE NAM/SREF/RUC CONTINUE TO SHOW DENSE FOG/LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT. INITIALLY MIXING MAY KEEP VIS HIGHER AND MAINLY LOW
STRATUS...HOWEVER AS LOW LEVELS STABILIZE AND MIXING DIMINISHES I
EXPECT VIS TO DROP SIGNIFICANTLY BY SUNRISE. FOG MAY REACH AS FAR
WEST AS KGLD...HOWEVER AT THIS POINT GUIDANCE IS KEEPING VFR
CONDITIONS IN PLACE AT KGLD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. I INTRODUCED
LIFR GROUP BY 12Z AT KMCK BASED ON CURRENT CONFIDENCE.
GRADIENT BEGINS TO INCREASE SUNDAY AS LEE TROUGH DEEPENS WITH
GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING AT GLD. AS THE WINDS SHIFT TO MORE OF A
WESTERLY DIRECTION LOWER TD VALUES TO ADVECT EAST WHICH COMBINED
WITH SOLAR HEATING SHOULD HELP DIMINISH FOG.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
237 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014
...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 106 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014
A LARGE RIDGE OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
CENTRAL U.S. TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH LOTS OF CLEAR SKIES AND WARM
TEMPERATURES.
850MB TEMPS WARM TO AROUND 22 CELSIUS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AND
AFTERNOON MIXING SHOULD BRING HIGHS TO NEAR RECORDS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL
DEEPEN WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY
UPSLOPE AT 10 TO 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS UPSLOPE COMPONENT
WILL HOLD HIGHS BACK A BIT FROM YESTERDAYS HIGHS. RECORDS RUN FROM
88 AT DODGE CITY, 91 AT GARDEN CITY, AND 90 AT MEDICINE LODGE.
WILL GO WITH AROUND 85 AT DODGE, TO 86 AT GARDEN, AND 87 AT
MEDICINE LODGE. SOME STRATUS/FOG MAY FORM NEAR MEDICINE LODGE TO
PRATT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DEWPOINTS AROUND 60, BUT HRRR SHOWS
JUST EAST OF THERE.
TONIGHT THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY WITH
THE UPPER FLOW BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS WILL PUSH THE SURFACE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INTO WESTERN KANSAS LATE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTHERLY AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH CLEAR SKIES. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE MILD AND RANGE FROM UPPER 40S AROUND GARDEN CITY TO THE MID
50S AT DODGE CITY, AND UPPER 50S AT MEDICINE LODGE. THE COOLER TEMPS
IN THE WEST DUE TO THE LIGHTER WINDS NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS DURING THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK WHICH WILL IN TURN PUSH A
SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY MONDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE I-70 CORRIDOR MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING,
WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED MONDAY BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT MAKING IT
FEEL COOLER THAN IT ACTUALLY IS. SKIES THEN BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR ON
TUESDAY WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT ARE PROGGED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS TO UPPER 50S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. HIGHS
MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 60S ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS TO MID 70S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
ARE ANTICIPATED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS TO MID 40S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. HIGHS TUESDAY ARE
THEN EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S BEHIND THE FRONT.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS THEN PROGGED TO BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND SUPPRESSING ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FROM DEVELOPING OVER
WESTERN KANSAS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE DOWN THROUGH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEK PUSHING ANOTHER COLD FRONT AT
THE SURFACE THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS. HIGHS
THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S WITH LOWS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014
YOU CAN EXPECT SEVERE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 25 HOURS AT KDDC AND
KGCK TAF SITES. HARDLY ANY CLOUDS, LIGHT WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE
SOUTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS, AND NO VISIBILITY ISSUES. AT THE
KHYS SITE, THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT FOG TOWARDS SUNRISE
SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 54 87 53 71 / 0 0 0 10
GCK 49 86 49 68 / 0 0 0 20
EHA 53 85 52 68 / 0 0 0 10
LBL 53 87 53 70 / 0 0 0 10
HYS 52 82 52 67 / 0 0 0 10
P28 59 89 60 76 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KRUSE
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...BURKE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1253 PM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW LARGE SCALE RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...EXTENDING NORTH INTO THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS IN PLACE OVER SE
COLORADO AND NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. A STALLED FRONT IS BISECTING OUR CWA...EXTENDING
FROM NE COLORADO TO CENTRAL KANSAS (ROUGHLY ALONG A KAKO-KGLD-
KHYS LINE).
WITH STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE AND MAIN STORM TRACK WELL NORTH OF THE
CWA...PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AGAIN
SUNDAY AND POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG TONIGHT.
REGARDING DENSE FOG...NAM/RUC/HRRR RH AND VIS FIELDS CONTINUE TO
SHOW POSSIBILITY OF DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT NORTH OF THE QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT. SREF PROBABILITIES ARE ALSO SHOWING THIS.
LOCATION OF FRONT AND MOISTURE POOLING ALONG/NORTH OF THIS FEATURE
WILL LIKELY BE CRITICAL TO DENSE FOG LOCATION...IN ADDITION NEAR
INVERSION LAYER WINDS 10-20KT MAY ALLOW FOR ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP
VIS HIGHER UNTIL LOW LEVELS COMPLETELY DECOUPLE AROUND SUNRISE.
THERE IS ALSO INDICATION FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS AND CURRENT
GFS THAT FRONT WILL BE FURTHER NORTH AND EAST WHICH WOULD ALLOW
LOWER TD VALUES TO ADVECT EASTWARD WITH SHIFT IN LOW LEVEL FLOW.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN FOG DEVELOPMENT...BUT LOCATION IS ENOUGH OF
A QUESTION TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUANCE OF ADVISORY DURING DAYTIME
UPDATE PACKAGE.
TEMP FORECAST SUNDAY IS ALSO COMPLICATED BY POSITION OF QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER TEMPS ALOFT NORTH OF THIS
FRONT. ANY LINGERING STRATUS/FOG WOULD ALSO THROW A WRENCH INTO
THINGS...ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTHEAST. OVERALL I THINK TEMPS WILL
BE VERY SIMILAR TODAY...WITH SLIGHTLY "COOLER" TEMPS NORTH OF THE
FRONT JUST LIKE TODAY. EITHER WAY TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
LOWER 80S FOR MOST PARTS OF THE CWA SUNDAY...AND IF FRONT LIFTS
NORTHEAST WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW COULD SUPPORT RECORD HIGHS IN
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014
TUESDAY...FORECAST AREA UNDER SOME NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH SOME
WEAK/BROAD UPPER RIDGING WEST OF THE DIVIDE AND BROAD TROUGH ACROSS
THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. 850 TEMPERATURES SUPPORT CURRENT
FORECAST OF MID 50S TO MID 60S (WEST TO EAST) WHICH IS A DEGREE OR
TWO BELOW NORMAL. CONCERN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT IS FROST POTENTIAL.
GUIDANCE AND CURRENT FORECAST OF LOW TO MID 30S FOR MOST OF THE AREA
SEEMS REASONABLE...SOME CONCERN THAT THE SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10
MPH THAT DEVELOP AS SFC HIGH MOVES SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA AND
WARM AIR ALOFT MOVING IN FROM THE WEST COULD BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT
TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TO CURRENT VALUES...THEY MAY BE A LITTLE
"LESS COLD". WONT CHANGE THINGS UP TOO MUCH FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS
AT THIS TIME.
WEDNESDAY...MID AND A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM MID
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING...EXITING THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. NO
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. 850MB TEMPERATURES WARM ABOUT 13F FROM
TUESDAYS READINGS SUPPORTING AROUND 70/LOW 70S ACROSS THE AREA. LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S WEST TO LOW 40S EAST. FROST AGAIN
POSSIBLE FOR SOME. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.
THURSDAY...UPPER RIDGING STARTS TO MOVE TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE
WEST. THIS WOULD TYPICALLY SUPPORT WARMING 850MB TEMPERATURES AND
AFTERNOON HIGHS BUT A COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHEAST
LOWERING 850MB TEMPERATURES TO VALUES SUPPORTIVE OF LOW TO MID
60S...RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR THE END OF OCTOBER. SFC RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDS INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT ALLOWING LOWS TO DROP INTO THE
LOW TO MID 30S. SOME FROST IS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN. NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED.
FRIDAY...GFS/ECMWF IS SOME DISAGREEMENT AS TO HOW MUCH UPPER RIDGING
MOVES INTO THE AREA WHICH IMPACTS LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS AND
TEMPERATURE FORECAST BOTH HIGH AND LOW. IF ONE WHERE TO BLEND THE
TWO 850MB TEMP FIELDS HIGHS WOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
WHICH ISNT TOO FAR OFF FROM CURRENT FORECAST (LOW 60S). NO
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1121 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. A FEW WIND GUSTS 18-20KT WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KGLD THIS
AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 12KT AT BOTH
KGLD/KMCK.
FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHCENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA LATE TONIGHT (GENERALLY AFTER 08-09Z) ALONG AND NORTH OF
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. BEST MOISTURE POOLING WILL BE NEAR
KMCK WHERE NAM/SREF/RUC CONTINUE TO SHOW DENSE FOG/LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT. INITIALLY MIXING MAY KEEP VIS HIGHER AND MAINLY LOW
STRATUS...HOWEVER AS LOW LEVELS STABILIZE AND MIXING DIMINISHES I
EXPECT VIS TO DROP SIGNIFICANTLY BY SUNRISE. FOG MAY REACH AS FAR
WEST AS KGLD...HOWEVER AT THIS POINT GUIDANCE IS KEEPING VFR
CONDITIONS IN PLACE AT KGLD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. I INTRODUCED
LIFR GROUP BY 12Z AT KMCK BASED ON CURRENT CONFIDENCE.
GRADIENT BEGINS TO INCREASE SUNDAY AS LEE TROUGH DEEPENS WITH
GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING AT GLD. AS THE WINDS SHIFT TO MORE OF A
WESTERLY DIRECTION LOWER TD VALUES TO ADVECT EAST WHICH COMBINED
WITH SOLAR HEATING SHOULD HELP DIMINISH FOG.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...DDT
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1213 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014
...UPDATED FOR THE AVIATION FORECAST...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 106 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014
A LARGE RIDGE OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
CENTRAL U.S. TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH LOTS OF CLEAR SKIES AND WARM
TEMPERATURES.
850MB TEMPS WARM TO AROUND 22 CELSIUS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AND
AFTERNOON MIXING SHOULD BRING HIGHS TO NEAR RECORDS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL
DEEPEN WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY
UPSLOPE AT 10 TO 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS UPSLOPE COMPONENT
WILL HOLD HIGHS BACK A BIT FROM YESTERDAYS HIGHS. RECORDS RUN FROM
88 AT DODGE CITY, 91 AT GARDEN CITY, AND 90 AT MEDICINE LODGE.
WILL GO WITH AROUND 85 AT DODGE, TO 86 AT GARDEN, AND 87 AT
MEDICINE LODGE. SOME STRATUS/FOG MAY FORM NEAR MEDICINE LODGE TO
PRATT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DEWPOINTS AROUND 60, BUT HRRR SHOWS
JUST EAST OF THERE.
TONIGHT THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY WITH
THE UPPER FLOW BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS WILL PUSH THE SURFACE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INTO WESTERN KANSAS LATE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTHERLY AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH CLEAR SKIES. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE MILD AND RANGE FROM UPPER 40S AROUND GARDEN CITY TO THE MID
50S AT DODGE CITY, AND UPPER 50S AT MEDICINE LODGE. THE COOLER TEMPS
IN THE WEST DUE TO THE LIGHTER WINDS NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014
ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH DEEP
MIXING OF WARM AND DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AIR EXPECTED. SURFACE WINDS
WILL BECOME WESTERLY WITH THE DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT HELPING WITH THE
WARMING. BY THE FIRST OF THE WEEK A PACIFIC ORIGIN COLD FRONT
WILL BE MOVING ACROSS MY CWA AS A STRONG S/WV THROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ALTHOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED, THERE SHOULD BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
FROM THE PASSING TROUGH (WITH THE PACIFIC ORIGINS). IF ALL PANS
OUT AS EXPECTED, THERE SHOULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF ACCENT WITH
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC JET LOCATED SOMEWHERE
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO GET AT LEAST VIRGA SHOWERS
OR SPRINKLES. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH AND DECREASING CLOUD
COVER, DRYING AIR AND DECREASING WINDS, THE MIN TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY SHOULD FALL BACK TO AT LEAST SEASONAL VALUES.
FOR THE BALANCE OF THE WEEK THERE SHOULD BE A TRANSITORY UPPER
RIDGE MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS SO THAT DRY WEATHER AND
TYPICAL LATE OCTOBER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014
YOU CAN EXPECT SEVERE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 25 HOURS AT KDDC AND
KGCK TAF SITES. HARDLY ANY CLOUDS, LIGHT WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE
SOUTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS, AND NO VISIBILITY ISSUES. AT THE
KHYS SITE, THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT FOG TOWARDS SUNRISE
SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 87 54 87 52 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 87 49 86 49 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 87 53 85 51 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 88 53 87 53 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 84 52 82 53 / 0 0 0 0
P28 87 59 89 59 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KRUSE
LONG TERM...HUTTON
AVIATION...BURKE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
548 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A SLIGHT COOL DOWN FOR SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM WELL
ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
BRING RAIN AND A RETURN TO COLDER TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY WORKING THROUGH THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH JUST A FEW
CLOUDS MANAGING TO BE GENERATED AHEAD OF IT. A DEARTH OF LAYER
MOISTURE IS EVIDENT WITH IT...AND GIVEN FAIRLY STRONG BOUNDARY
LAYER DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AHEAD OF IT...EVEN THE LIFT ALONG THE
FRONT WILL BE INSUFFICIENT TO GENERATE ANY RAIN SHOWERS AS IT
PASSES. THAT SAID...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG MIXING
AHEAD...ALONG..AND BEHIND THE FRONT ARE EVIDENT...AND GIVEN STRONG
MOMENTUM IN THE LOWEST 5 KFT OF THE OVERNIGHT MODEL SOUNDINGS...IT
WOULD SEEM SOME WIND GUSTS WILL BE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF TONIGHT.
THE BIGGEST RAMIFICATION OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BEYOND THE WIND
WILL LIKELY BE THE FALL IN DEWPOINTS. UPSTREAM DEWPOINT VALUES ARE
RUNNING INTO THE 20S AND 30S...DOWN FROM THE LOWER 50S OVER THE
REGION NOW. WHILE NEITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT IS MOIST...IT IS QUITE
CERTAIN THAT VERY DRY AIR IS ON ITS WAY IN. AS A RESULT...SKIES
WERE CLEARED OUT RAPIDLY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND WILL
LIKELY REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. FRIES
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL BRING FLOW WITH A SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT...ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURE TO RISE ABOVE NORMAL. NEARLY
ALL LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE 70S ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN
ADVANCING COLD FRONT. HAVE SPED UP ARRIVAL TIME OF PRECIP...AND HAVE
NOW BROUGHT IN A CHANCE OF RAIN EVERYWHERE BY LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. 12Z GFS AND NAM BOTH SHOW SMALL AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY IN
ZANESVILLE SOUNDING...AND HAVE ALSO ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER
FOR PORTIONS OF OHIO.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL RACE ACROSS REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND HAVE GONE
WITH LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS WITH FRO PA AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE STRETCHED ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. BY FRIDAY DEEPENING
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING
SHOWERS BACK TO THE REGION FOLLOWED BY MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS FOR
THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL MID EVENING BEFORE
DECOUPLING AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN HOW SOON WINDS WILL LESSEN AT THE SURFACE BUT FOR
NOW REFLECT THIS OCCURRING SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AT MOST
LOCATIONS. IF WINDS DECOUPLE EARLIER...LOW LEVEL IND SHEAR WILL
BE A CONCERN AS LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW 40KTS AT 1KFT AGL BY MID
EVENING. REMOVED MVFR CIGS FROM 18Z TAFS AS MUCH DRIER AIR WILL BE
MOVING IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. MODELS ARE ALL IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW A LARGE ENOUGH MARGIN BETWEEN TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT
PROFILES DESPITE THE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT.
OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
346 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW WNW FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE UPR GREAT LKS BTWN UPR RDG EXTENDING FM TEXAS THRU THE
ROCKIES AND DEEPENING UPR TROF NEAR HUDSON BAY ENHANCED BY STRONG
SHRTWV DIGGING THRU NW ONTARIO THAT IS ACCOMPANIED BY 12HR H5 HGT
FALLS UP TO 130M. TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BTWN ASSOCIATED LO PRES NEAR
JAMES BAY AND HI PRES IN THE NRN PLAINS IS ALLOWING FOR GUSTY WNW
WINDS OVER UPR MI EARLY THIS AFTN. THE 12Z INL RAOB SHOWED WINDS
NEAR 40 KTS AT 3-4K FT AGL...AND SFC WIND GUSTS HAVE REACHED AOA 40
MPH OVER MUCH OF THE CWA WITH DAYTIME HEATING ALLOWING THE MIXING OF
THOSE HIER WINDS TO THE SFC. THE AIRMASS STREAMING INTO UPR MI IS A
DRY ONE... SO THERE HAVE ONLY BEEN SOME SCT DIURNAL CU/SC. BUT MORE
SC IS NOTED OVER ONTARIO CLOSER TO CORE OF COLDER AIR AT H85. LOOKING
WELL UPSTREAM...THERE IS A POTENT SHRTWV APRCHG THE PAC NW.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED ON WINDS INTO THIS
EVNG AND THEN ON TEMPS FOR SUN.
LATE TDAY/TNGT...WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING AND SLOW BUT
STEADY APRCH OF SFC HI PRES RDG FM THE W/DIMINISHING H925 WINDS...
THE GUSTY WNW WINDS THAT LINGER THRU THE AFTN WL DIMINISH. HIER
WAVES WHIPPED UP BY THE STRONG WINDS THIS AFTN AND IMPACTING AREAS
FM ONTONAGON THRU COPPER HARBOR AND E OF MARQUETTE MAY CAUSE SOME
MINOR BEACH EROSION ALONG THE LK SUP SHORE. SKIES SHOULD BE MOCLR...
BUT AS THE FLOW VEERS A BIT MORE TO THE NW OVER THE E AND ADVECTS
SOMEWHAT COLDER H85 AIR INTO THAT AREA...SOME OF THE BKN SC IN
ONTARIO MAY MOVE INTO THE ERN CWA. THIS CAD WL ALSO MAINTAIN GUSTY
WINDS OVER THE E FOR A BIT LONGER. A STEADY NW WIND THRU THE NGT WL
LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP DROP EVEN WHERE SKIES ARE CLR. EXPECT THE
LOWEST MIN TEMPS OVER THE INTERIOR W...WHERE WINDS WL BECOME LIGHTER
TOWARD DAYBREAK WITH THE CLOSER APRCH OF SFC HI PRES RDG.
SUN...HI PRES RDG CROSSING UPR MI WL BRING A MAINLY SUNNY DAY...
EXCEPT FOR SOME SCT DAYTIME CU OVER THE E CLOSER TO SLOWLY DEPARTING
H85 THERMAL TROF. STEADY NW WINDS OVER THE E IN THE MRNG WL DIMINISH
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE RDG. WITH H85 TEMPS REBOUNDING TO 10C OVER
THE W BY 00Z MON...MAX TEMPS SHOULD RISE INTO THE 50S AND PERHAPS
TOUCH 60 OVER THE W WHERE DVLPG SE FLOW WL DOWNSLOPE. MORE
PERSISTENT NW FLOW OFF THE CHILLY WATERS OF LK SUP WL KEEP THE E
COOLEST...AND TEMPS THERE NEAR LK SUP MAY BE HARD PRESSED TO REACH
50.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014
A 500MB RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE CWA AT 00Z MON...BUT WILL MOVE E BY
12Z MON AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NRN PLAINS ACCOMPANIED BY
A BROAD SFC LOW ACROSS MN. EXPECT SHOWERS /AND POSSIBLY SOME
THUNDERSTORMS/ ASSOCIATED WITH WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THE
LOW TO MOVE ACROSS THE WRN CWA SUN NIGHT IN MON MORNING...THEN
ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA MON MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL THEN SHIFT ACROSS THE CWA TUE INTO TUE NIGHT...WITH
INTENSIFICATION OF THE BROAD SFC LOW OCCURRING. EXACTLY WHEN/WHERE
THE BEST CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS IS UNCERTAIN DUE TO MODEL DISAGREEMENT
ON MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH. DESPITE
LACKING EXACT DETAILS...THE PRECIP FORECAST REMAINS SOMEWHAT MORE
CERTAIN. RAIN SHOWERS /AGAIN WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS/ SHOULD
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE MON EVENING THROUGH MON NIGHT...BUT THE
DRY SLOT WILL LEAD TO A DRIER FORECAST FOR TUE MORNING. WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE AND COOLER NWLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO LAKE ENHANCED RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS LATE TUE INTO THU AS 850MB TEMPS FALL AS LOW AS
-5C...ALTHOUGH A DIMINISHING TREND IN SHOWER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS TIME. MON AND TUE WILL SEE HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S
TO MID 50S...BUT WED WILL ONLY SEE HIGHS REACH THE LOW TO MID 40S.
WED NIGHT AND THU MORNING LOOK DRY FOR THE MOST PART AS A SFC RIDGE
SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA...BUT CLOUDS WILL COVER THE AREA DUE TO AMPLE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS WELL AS FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR.
POOR RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY FROM THE MODELS DOES NOT LEND MUCH
CONFIDENCE FOR THU THROUGH NEXT SAT AS THEY POINT TO A DEEPER TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...BRINGING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AOB
-10C. AS MENTIONED MODELS VARY FROM RUN TO RUN AND DISAGREE WITH
EACH OTHER ON ALL BUT THE VERY GENERAL PATTERN...AND EVEN AT THAT
THE TIMING OF WHEN AND FOR HOW LONG THE COLD AIR MOVES OVERHEAD IS
NOT AGREED ON. WILL HAVE CHANCES OF LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW THU
NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT. FOR SAT...MODELS WANT TO BRING A SFC HIGH INTO
THE AREA BUT WITH CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY. WILL KEEP POPS GOING INTO
SAT FOR LAKE EFFECT...BUT JUST SLIGHT CHANCE FOR NOW. HIGH TEMPS ON
FRI MAY NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 30S IN MANY LOCATIONS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 123 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014
EXPECT GUSTY WNW WINDS IN THE 30-40KT RANGE THIS AFTN UNDER SHARP
PRES GRADIENT BTWN HI PRES IN THE NRN PLAINS AND LO PRES NEAR JAMES
BAY TO DIMINISH A BIT TOWARD SUNSET WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING/
MIXING. THE STRONGEST WINDS WL OCCUR AT THE MORE EXPOSED CMX
LOCATION. THE WINDS WL DIMINISH FURTHER LATER TNGT/SUN MRNG WITH
CLOSER APRCH OF SFC HI PRES FM THE PLAINS/WEAKENING GRADIENT. VFR
CONDITIONS WL BE THE RULE AS THE INCOMING AIRMASS IS DRY.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014
AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY WEST TO EAST OVER
NORTHERN ONTARIO...SW TO W GALES OVER 35 KTS ARE EXPECTED INTO
THIS EVENING...MAINLY CENTRAL AND EAST LAKE SUPERIOR. NW WINDS OF 20
TO 30 KTS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING IN WAKE OF THE LOW AND
BEFORE SFC RIDGE CROSSES THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. AFTER A BRIEF
PERIOD WITH WINDS LESS THAN 20 KTS WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE...SE WINDS
INCREASE TO 30 KTS OVER MAINLY EAST LAKE SUPERIOR ON MONDAY AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. ONCE THIS LOW MOVES TO THE EAST
OF LAKE SUPERIOR ON TUESDAY...WEST WINDS TO 30 KTS AND POSSIBLY UP
TO GALE FORCE OF 35 KTS WILL DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT NORTHWEST AND STAY UP TO 30 KTS INTO
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 25 KTS BY
THURSDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LSZ251-267.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LSZ250-265-266.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...TITUS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
344 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014
SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE THE RETURN OF DEEPER
MOISTURE TONIGHT AND LOW CLOUDS/FOG DEVELOPMENT.
SEASONABLY STRONG 130-150KT UPPER LEVEL JETS WERE LOCATED OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. THESE FEATURES WERE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE H5 TROF OFF THE WEST COAST AND ATTENDANT 130M+
HEIGHT FALLS. IN ADDITION...THERE WAS A NEGATIVELY TILTED H5 TROF
NORTH OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. A BROAD H5 RIDGE WAS SITUATED OVER
THE ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. AT H85...THE THERMAL
RIDGE WAS OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE DEEP MOISTURE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILED ACROSS THE REGION WITH SUNSHINE AND MUCH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S/80S. RECORDS FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR ARE IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90...SO WELL BELOW THOSE
LEVELS.
WE HAD SOME DENSE FOG THAT DEVELOPED FROM ILLINOIS INTO
MISSOURI...AND SPREAD INTO SOUTHERN IOWA AND SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA...WHERE THE SURFACE DEWPOINTS WERE HIGH AHEAD OF THE
DRIER AIR.
AT 20Z...SURFACE DEWPOINTS VARIED FROM THE LOWER 30S IN THE NORTH
NEAR THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER TO THE MID 50S JUST SOUTH OF
BEATRICE. TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
INFLUENCE THE AREA WITH DRY AIR. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST
TO INCREASE AND H85 WINDS SHOULD BE AROUND 25 TO 35KTS. THE HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS DO NOT GO OUT FAR ENOUGH ON SUNDAY. THE
NAM/SREF ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAN THE
GFS. THE RAP IS SIMILIAR TO THE NAM AND IS STRONGER WITH THE
FORCING.
AS THE SURFACE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH...THERE WILL BE
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DEEPER MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS THAT WILL
FAVOR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. DO MENTION AREAS OF FOG IN THE
SOUTHWEST AND PATCHY FOG INTO THE CENTRAL ZONES/ THERE MAY BE SOME
SPRINKLES OR DRIZZLE AND DEPENDING ON HOW LONG THE LOW CLOUDS HANG
ON...WOULD AFFECT TEMPERATURES. THE MIXING FROM OMAHA NORTH AND
NORTHEAST IS MORE QUESTIONABLE...THUS HAVE HIGHS 70 TO 75 WITH
WARMER 75 TO 80 DEGREE TEMPS IN THE SOUTH FOR SUNDAY.
A COOL FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND THERE MAY BE SOME POST
FRONTAL SHOWERS MONDAY. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 60S AND 70S. BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014
THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS GENERALLY DRY. A WEAK FRONT PASSES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES FOR THE REST
OF THE EXTENDED. THE EC DOES BRING THE RIDGING EAST...HOWEVER THE
GFS IS SLOWER WITH THIS...THUS THE COOLER HIGHS IN THE 50S FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY COMPARED TO THE 60S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH FOG MAY OCCUR AFTER 10Z AT KLNK AS WARM AIR AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION OCCURS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN
NEBRASKA. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS ALSO LIKELY AT KOMA AFTER
26/1300Z.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
AVIATION...SMITH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND OR
306 PM PDT SAT OCT 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING NORTHEASTWARD INTO
WESTERN WASHINGTON WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
A SHOWERY AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA TONIGHT AND LAST INTO
SUNDAY. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN TO THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH ADDITIONAL WET PERIODS LIKELY TOWARDS THE END
OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...BUOY 89 AND BUOY 29 HAVE BOTTOMED OUT IN THE 983 TO
984 MB RANGE AS A LOW PRESSURE MOVED BETWEEN THEM. THIS LOW PRESSURE
IS CURRENTLY ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR GRAYS HARBOR WASHINGTON.
PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE BEGINNING TO OPEN UP ACROSS THE REGION WITH
WIDESPREAD 50 TO 65 MPH WINDS ACTIVELY OCCURRING ACROSS OUR COASTAL
COMMUNITIES WITH UP TO 80 TO 90 MPH WIND GUSTS REPORTED AT THE MOST
EXPOSED BEACHES AND HEADLANDS. WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 55 MPH
HAVE BEEN REPORTED ACROSS THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY IN THE LAST TWO
HOURS.
THERE HAVE BEEN A NUMBER OF REPORTS OF POWER LINES AND TREES DOWN
ACROSS THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN
WHETHER OR NOT 60 MPH GUSTS WILL SURFACE...BUT GIVEN THE IMPACTS OF
CURRENT WINDS...WILL KEEP HIGH WIND WARNINGS GOING EVEN IF CRITERIA
BY PURE WIND SPEEDS IS NOT MET. WITH THAT SAID...SOUTH TO NORTH
PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE QUICKLY INCREASING AND ARE CURRENTLY 20MB
BETWEEN KBOK-KAST...15MB BETWEEN KMFR-KAST...AND 4MB BETWEEN
KEUG-KPDX. RAP GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE KEUG-KPDX GRADIENT WILL INCREASE
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS TO NEAR 10MB. WHEN COMBINED WITH A
DESTABILIZING LOWER ATMOSPHERE...THIS SHOULD HELP HIGHER WINDS ALOFT
SURFACE ACROSS THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
EXPECT BREEZY WEATHER FOR THE REGION WELL INTO THIS EVENING...BUT THE
HIGHEST WINDS SHOULD BE OVER BETWEEN 5 PM AND 7 PM FOR THE WILLAMETTE
VALLEY.
IN ADDITION...THE BENT BACK OCCLUSION MAY BRING A STRONG WEST TO
NORTHWEST SURGE OF WINDS TO THE SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST...WILLAPA
HILLS AND LOWER COLUMBIA RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING SO HIGH WIND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR A FEW HOURS LONGER IN
THESE LOCATIONS VERSUS LOCATIONS FARTHER SOUTH.
VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE REST OF THE
FORECAST DUE TO THE FOCUS ON THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM. MUCH COOLER
AND SHOWERY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY...LIKELY BRINGING 1 TO
3 INCHES OF SNOW TO THE HIGH COUNTRY ABOVE 4500 TO 5000
FEET...PERHAPS A BIT HIGHER ABOVE 6000 FT. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN
THE WET WEATHER MONDAY...A FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN TO
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY LESS
WITH THIS SYSTEM THAN WITH THE CURRENT SYSTEM...AND THE FRONT
APPEARS AS THOUGH IT WILL BE TRANSIENT ENOUGH THAT FLOOD CONCERNS
WITH THIS SYSTEM APPEAR MINIMAL. /NEUMAN
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE THIS WEEK. SHORTWAVES IN THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING THE CHANCE FOR RAIN
ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THERE
WILL BE A COUPLE WEAK FRONTS...ONE WHICH MOVES ONSHORE TUESDAY AND A
SECOND THAT MOVES ONSHORE LATE THIS WEEK. THESE WILL BRING THE BEST
CHANCE FOR MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS...WITH MAINLY LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED
INTERMITTENTLY BEHIND THE FIRST FRONT ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE
SECOND FRONT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE AROUND FRIDAY. -MCCOY
&&
.AVIATION...A DEEP LOW PRES IS ABOUT 50 MILES OFF THE OREGON
COAST WILL PUSH INLAND OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON BY 5 PM TODAY.
STRONG S TO SW WINDS THROUGH 03Z. MOSTLY VFR...BUT WILL HAVE
POCKETS OF MVFR UNDER SHOWERS. EXPECT ISOLATED TSTMS...MAINLY FROM
COAST RANGE AND WESTWARD. CONDITIONS RELAX AFTER 03Z...WITH
WIDESPREAD LOW VFR AND MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING. MOSTLY VFR...BUT WILL HAVE OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS AT TIMES.
GUSTY S WINDS WITH GUSTS 35 TO 45 KT CONTINUE UNTIL 02Z...THEN
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY RELAX. ROCKEY.
&&
.MARINE...A 983 MB LOW ABOUT 50 MILES WEST OF ASTORIA WILL MOVE
ONSHORE JUST NORTH OF WILLAPA BAY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. STORM
WARNING IN EFFECT...WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. WINDS WILL DROP OFF AFTER
6 PM...WITH GALES THROUGH EVENING. WINDS EASE FURTHER OVERNIGHT.
WIND GENERATED SEAS HAVE BUILD RAPIDLY. SEAS PEAKED AT 30 FT AT
BUOY 50 AROUND NOON...AND ARE STILL 25 TO 30 FT ON OREGON WATERS
WITH SEAS 20 TO 25 FT FURTHER N. AS WINDS DROP OFF...SEAS WILL
RELAX. SEAS LIKELY TO DROP BACK TO AROUND 15 FT AROUND MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT...AND DOWN A BIT FURTHER FOR SUN.ROCKEY.
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM TODAY FOR WILLAMETTE VALLEY.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM TODAY FOR LOWER COLUMBIA.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 PM TODAY FOR ALL OF THE COAST
AND COAST RANGE.
WA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM TODAY FOR CLARK COUNTY.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR I-5
CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY...THE WILLAPA HILLS AND
THE SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST.
PZ...STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM TODAY ON ALL COASTAL WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR CONDITIONS
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
$$
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND OR
910 AM PDT SAT OCT 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL MOVE N UP THE OREGON COAST TODAY
THEN MOVE INLAND OVER SW WA TOWARDS PUGET SOUND THIS EVENING
BRINGING WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW THE LOW TURNING THE FLOW ONSHORE TONIGHT
AND SUN AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS. WEAK HIGH PRES WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUN NIGHT...THEN ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
MOVE IN MON AND TUE AS A LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVES INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA.
&&
.MORNING UPDATE...THE MAIN CHANGE THIS MORNING WAS TO EXPAND HIGH
WIND WARNING COVERAGE INTO THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST RANGE...WILLAPA
HILLS AND THE ENTIRE WILLAMETTE VALLEY...AND MOVE UP THE STARTING
TIME OF EXISTING HIGH WIND WARNINGS ALONG THE OREGON COAST.
A LOW PRESSURE SOMEWHERE IN THE UPPER 980S MB RANGE IS SLIDING NORTH
NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST WHERE IT IS APPROXIMATELY
75 TO 100 MILES OFFSHORE. WINDS HAVE BEEN BLASTING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
OREGON COAST AND HIGHER LOCATIONS ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHWEST OREGON. A
NUMBER OF STATIONS IN THIS GENERAL REGION HAVE REPORTED GUSTS BETWEEN
60 AND 100 MPH SO FAR. WHILE SOME OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THE
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY FILL FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...THE RAP
ACTUALLY HOLDS THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW PRESSURE STEADY FOR THE NEXT
6 TO 8 HOURS...EVEN DEEPENING IT SLIGHTLY TO 987MB BEFORE IT MAKES
LANDFALL SOMEWHERE AROUND PACIFIC OR GRAYS HARBOR COUNTIES IN
WASHINGTON THIS AFTERNOON. THE RAP ALSO PEAKS THE KPDX TO KEUG
PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND 10 MB AND IS JUST OVER 20 MB BETWEEN KAST
AND KBOK THIS AFTERNOON. THE RAP ALSO SUGGESTS A 3 HOUR PRESSURE
RISE OF GREATER THAN 9 MB PUSHING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COUPLED WITH AN
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS NORTHWEST OREGON
TODAY...HIGH WINDS ALOFT SHOULD HAVE AN EASIER TIME MIXING DOWN TO
THE SURFACE.
WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH FOR CENTRAL OREGON COASTAL COMMUNITIES AND 75 TO
80 MPH GUSTS ALONG BEACHES AND HEADLANDS SHOULD BEGIN SHORTLY AS THE
LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHWESTWARD OF THESE LOCATIONS. WINDS WILL BE
SLOWER TO START ALONG THE NORTH OREGON COAST...BUT SHOULD BEGIN
AROUND MIDDAY. FURTHER INLAND ACROSS THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY...WIND
GUSTS OF 40 TO 55 MPH APPEAR LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 60
MPH CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. THE HIGHEST WINDS APPEAR MOST LIKELY TO
IMPACT THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY BETWEEN 1 PM AND 5 PM. IT WILL CERTAINLY
REMAIN BREEZY AFTER THIS TIME FRAME...BUT THAT IS THE TIME OF
HIGHEST CONCERN RIGHT NOW. GIVEN FOLIAGE...THE GROUND IS RELATIVELY
SATURATED...AND THE AFOREMENTIONED METEOROLOGICAL FACTORS...OPTED TO
ISSUE A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR ALL THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY WHERE POWER
OUTAGES AND DOWN TREE POTENTIAL APPEARS HIGHER THAN WE HAVE SEEN IN
QUITE SOME TIME DESPITE SOME UNCERTAINTY IN EXACT WIND SPEEDS.
GIVEN THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW REMAINS UNCERTAIN...WILL KEEP THE
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT GOING FOR THE SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST...AND
THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE LOWER COLUMBIA INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR ZONES.
HOWEVER...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL CERTAINLY EXISTS FOR THESE ZONES THIS
AFTERNOON SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS AND MODEL DATA IN
CASE WARNINGS APPEAR NECESSARY FOR THESE LOCATIONS.
THE MENTION OF THUNDER WAS ALSO EXPANDED INTO INTERIOR LOCATIONS FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL MONITOR RADAR CLOSELY FOR ANY
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS THAT WARRANT SHORT FUSED WARNINGS. /NEUMAN
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
.SHORT TERM...SURFACE LOW WAS SEEN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY NEAR 40N
129W AT 08Z MOVING NE. BUOY 46002 SHOWED A PRES OF 990 MB N OF THE
LOW...SUGGESTING A CENTRAL PRES AT LEAST A FEW MB BELOW 990. OVERALL
PREFER THE ECMWF FOR PLACEMENT AND PRES...ALTHOUGH MODELS HAVE COME
AROUND TO A MUCH MORE COHESIVE PICTURE OF LOW. A SOUTHERLY JET ALONG
THE E SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH SUGGESTS A TURN TO THE N FOR THE LOW
TODAY...WHICH MODELS NOW UNIFORMLY BRING UP JUST OFF THE OREGON
COAST TODAY WHILE BEGINNING TO FILL. THERE IS A LITTLE SPREAD IN
WHERE THE MODELS BRING THE LOW INLAND...BUT CONSENSUS SEEMS TO
SUGGEST THE LOW MAKING LANDFALL ON THE S WA COAST BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z
TODAY BEFORE HEADING TOWARDS THE S PUGET SOUND AREA. WITH SURFACE
PRES GRADIENTS GENERALLY DEPICTED AROUND 14 TO 16 MB DOWN THE OREGON
COAST AS THE LOW MOVES INLAND...WILL POST HIGH WIND WARNINGS FOR THE
CENTRAL AND N OREGON COAST AND THE N OREGON COAST RANGE. S WA COAST
IS A LITTLE IFFY BASED ON THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE EXACT TRACK OF THE
LOW. WITH THE BEST GUESS FOR THE LOW MOVING INLAND OVER PACIFIC
COUNTY WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WARNINGS FOR THE S WA COAST AND WILLAPA
HILLS...ALTHOUGH IT MAY ULTIMATELY REQUIRE A WARNING LATER TODAY. A
THE TRACK OF THE LOW EXPECTED ACROSS THE S SOUND SUGGESTS WINDY
CONDITIONS EXTENDING INTO THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND I-5 CORRIDOR
LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. MODELS INDICATING ABOUT A 6 MB PRES
GRADIENT BETWEEN KEUG AND KPDX AS THE LOW PASSES BY TO THE
N..PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH FOR A HIGH WIND WARNING BUT GUSTS TO 50 MPH
NONETHELESS. OVERALL THE PEAK WINDS TODAY AND THIS EVENING EXPECTED
TO BE RELATIVELY QUICK TO PASS AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH QUICKLY AND
COLD FRONT FOLLOWS QUICKLY.
LIGHTING INDICATED ON LIGHTNING DETECTION NETWORKS TO THE N OF THE
LOW EARLY THIS MORNING OFFSHORE. WILL ADD A MENTION OF THUNDER TO
THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY AS THE LOW LIFTS N...AND INCLUDE A SLIGHT
CHANCE IN SW WA LATE TODAY. WITH THE WARM FRONT ALREADY N AND THE
LOW PASSING BY TO THE N...RAINFALL IS NOT A COMPLETE GIMMIE
TODAY...ESP POINTS FURTHER INLAND. BETTER POPS WILL COME TONIGHT IN
THE WESTERLY ONSHORE FLOW FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT AS THE COLDER AIR
ALOFT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH DESTABILIZES THE ATMOSPHERE AND
OROGRAPHICS ADD LIFT TO THE WINDWARD MOUNTAINS. THE COOLER AIR
FOLLOWING THE FRONT EXPECTED TO DROP SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO AROUND 4500
FT BY SUN MORNING...IN TIME TO EXPECT AT LEAST A FEW INCHES OF SNOW
FOR THE PASSES IN THE OROGRAPHIC SHOWERS.
A WEAK RIDGE SUN NIGHT WILL BRING A SLOW END TO THE SHOWERS AS WELL
AS SOME COOLER TEMPS. THE NEXT SYSTEM THOUGH...THIS ONE TRACKING E
ACROSS THE N PACIFIC TOWARDS BC...WILL BRING THE NEXT THREAT OF RAIN
TO THE N PART OF THE FORECAST AREA MON IN AN AREA OF MOIST WARM AIR
ADVECTION.
.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. THE LONG TERM
STARTS OUT WET WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA
MON NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM CONTAINS THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ANA...THAT
SKIRTED HAWAII LAST WEEK. MODELS MAY BE UNDER DOING THE POTENTIAL
WITH THIS ONE. A STRONG JET STREAM WILL REMAIN DIRECTED AT WA AND
NRN OREGON THROUGH TUE NIGHT. MODELS SHOW LARGE VARIATIONS BEGINNING
WED...BUT EXPECT THE ACTIVE PATTERN TO CONTINUE. THE ECMWF AND GFS
SHOW A TREND TOWARD DRIER CONDITIONS LATE NEXT WEEK AS A DEEP LOW IN
THE GULF OF ALASKA AMPLIFIES THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. WEISHAAR
&&
.AVIATION...LOW PRES OFF THE OREGON COAST WILL PUSH NE TODAY AND
THEN INLAND OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON LATER THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG S
TO SW WINDS ALOFT TODAY...WITH GUSTY S TO SW WINDS DOWN TO GROUND
THROUGH 03Z. STRONGEST WINDS 20Z TO 01Z. MOSTLY VFR...BUT WILL
HAVE POCKETS OF MVFR UNDER SHOWERS. EXPECT ISOLATED TSTMS...MAINLY
FROM COAST RANGE AND WESTWARD. CONDITIONS RELAX AFTER 03Z...WITH
CONSIDERABLE LOW VFR AND MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL INCREASE THIS AM...
AND CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. MOSTLY VFR...BUT WILL HAVE
OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS AT TIMES. WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHERLY AND GUSTY
AFTER 17Z...WITH STRONGEST WINDS BETWEEN 21Z AND 02Z WHEN GUSTS
MAY REACH 40 KT AT TIMES. ROCKEY.
&&
.MARINE...A 985 MB LOW IS NOW ABOUT 200 MILES WEST OF NORTH
BEND AND IS MOVING THE NORTHEAST. LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE
JUST NORTH OF WILLAPA BAY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SOLID SOUTHERLY
GALES ON THE WATERS TODAY. STRONGEST WINDS IN 2 TO 5 PM PERIOD AT
WHICH TIME MAY HAVE BRIEF COASTAL JET DEVELOPMENT. WINDS WILL TURN
WEST TO SOUTHWEST AND EASE THIS EVENING.
SEAS GENERALLY 10 TO 12 FT THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD BUILD QUICKLY
LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. BUOY OFF PORT ORFORD NOW AT
27 FT...SO GIVE MORE CONFIDENCE IN BOOSTING WAVE HEIGHTS ON OREGON
COASTAL WATERS FOR TODAY. WILL SEE PEAK OUT NEAR 20 FT FROM ABOUT
TILLAMOOK SOUTHWARD...AND 15 TO 18 FT FURTHER TO THE N. SEAS WILL
SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AS WINDS DROP. ROCKEY.
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM TODAY FOR WILLAMETTE VALLEY.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 PM TODAY FOR ALL OF THE COAST AND
COAST RANGE.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM TODAY
FOR LOWER COLUMBIA.
WA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM TODAY FOR CLARK COUNTY.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM TODAY FOR WILLAPA HILLS.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM TODAY FOR I-5
CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY.
PZ...GALE WARNING TODAY ON ALL CENTRAL OREGON COASTAL WATERS...
OR FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE AND OUT 60 NM.
GALE WARNING TODAY AND THIS EVENING ON S WASH/N ORE
COASTAL WATERS...OR FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO CASCADE HEAD
AND OUT 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR
CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
&&
$$
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&