Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 10/24/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
1000 AM MST WED OCT 22 2014
.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS WITH MUCH
WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY. NEAR RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.
DRY CONDITIONS WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL THEN OCCUR EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS SE AZ THIS MORNING EXCEPT
FOR A FEW CUMULOFORM CLOUDS OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. 22/12Z KTWC
SOUNDING TOTAL PRECIP WATER VALUE WAS 0.69 INCH...A DECREASE OF
NEARLY 0.10 INCH VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO. THE SOUNDING YIELDED A
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT...WITH LIFTED INDEX OF MINUS 1 AND
UNMODIFIED SBCAPE OF 682 J/KG. LIGHT TO MODERATE NWLY/NLY FLOW
PREVAILED ABOVE 700 MB.
MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDED FROM NERN NEW MEXICO SWWD ACROSS THE
BOOTHEEL OF NEW MEXICO...AND CONTINUED SWWD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF
CALIFORNIA AT THIS TIME. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WAS CENTERED
WELL WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA SPUR NEAR 25N/130W. THE MID-LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE WELL SE OF THE AREA BY TONIGHT. 22/12Z NAM/GFS
DEPICTS JUST ENOUGH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE TO SUPPORT SOME CUMULOFORM
CLOUDS MOSTLY ACROSS ERN SECTIONS LATER TODAY. 22/14Z RUC HRRR
DEPICTED PRECIP-FREE CONDITIONS TO OCCUR TODAY...WITH ANY PRECIP
ECHOES OF CONSEQUENCE TO BE EAST OF THIS FORECAST AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL THEN AMPLIFY OVER THE SWRN CONUS THUR-FRI.
THE UPPER HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA SAT IN RESPONSE TO A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH ENTERING THE WEST COAST. INCREASING HEIGHTS/
THICKNESSES WILL SUPPORT A STRONG WARMING TREND UNDER GENERALLY
CLEAR SKIES...AND RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR SOME LOCALES
THUR-SAT. THE INHERITED OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR TUCSON DEPICTS 94
DEGS F FOR FRI/SAT. THE LATEST DATE FOR 95 DEGS F RECORDED AT THE
TUCSON INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT IS OCTOBER 26, 1934 AND 2001.
THE UPPER HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA SAT IN RESPONSE TO A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH ENTERING THE WEST COAST. HAVE NOTED THAT THE 22/12Z
GFS DEPICTED A SOMEWHAT SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
TO OCCUR SAT ASSOCIATED WITH SWLY FLOW ALOFT. HAVE ALSO NOTED THAT
THE GFS PRODUCED A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF QPF/S JUST WEST AND NORTH OF
THIS FORECAST AREA. WILL ADDRESS THE NOTION OF INTRODUCING SOME
SPRINKLES WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE FOR SAT.
THEREAFTER...22/12Z GFS AND 21/00Z ECMWF WERE SIMILAR WITH DEPICTING
THE WEST COAST TROUGH TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE SWRN CONUS SUN. THE
MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL THEN MOVE EWD INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS
PLAINS MON...AND INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION TUE. THE
MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS TROUGH WILL BE SOME INCREASE IN WLY/SWLY WINDS
SUN FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPS MON.
AS NOTED ABOVE...A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR TODAY THRU FRI FOLLOWED
BY NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN DAYTIME TEMPS SAT. HIGH TEMPS FRI-SAT
WILL GENERALLY BE ABOUT 10 DEGS F ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER...SOME
LOCALES MAY EXPERIENCE EVEN WARMER TEMPS. COOLER TEMPS ASSOCIATED
WITH DECREASING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES WILL THEN OCCUR SUN FOLLOWED BY
AN ADDITIONAL 5-8 DEGS F OR SO OF COOLING MON. EXPECT AN ADDITIONAL
2-5 DEGS F OF COOLING TO OCCUR TUE.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 23/18Z.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL START TO BUILD OVER SOUTHEAST ARIZONA TODAY
AND CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH FRIDAY. EXPECT A FEW TO SCATTERED
CUMULUS CLOUDS AROUND 8-12K FT AGL MAINLY NEAR THE MOUNTAINS EAST OF
KTUS TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES WITH SURFACE WIND GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10 KTS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RESULT IN DRY
CONDITIONS WITH A WARMING TREND THROUGH SATURDAY. SOME COOLING WILL
THEN OCCUR SUNDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA.
THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING SOME GUSTY WEST WINDS SUNDAY FOLLOWED
BY GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE UPPER GILA VALLEY. EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
TRENDING CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
FRANCIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
612 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH PERIODS OF
RAINFALL. THE STEADIEST RAIN LOOKS TO OCCUR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME SUN ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 610 PM EDT...BOTH A SFC LOW AND A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
SITUATED JUST OFF THE DELMARVA REGION. THIS SYSTEM IS SLOWLY
DRIFTING TOWARDS THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND
THIS SYSTEM IS BRINGING PLENTY OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE UP AND AROUND
THE UPPER LOW AND INTO NEW ENGLAND. SOME SHOWERS HAVE MOVED FROM
EAST TO WEST ACROSS OUR AREA LATE THIS AFTN...AND THIS LOOKS TO
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WELL. 850 HPA
EASTERLY WIND ANOMALIES REACH 3-5 STD ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE
TONIGHT...SHOWING AN IMPRESSIVE PUSH OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM AN EASTERLY DIRECTION. BOTH OUR
LOCAL HIRESWRF AND THE 3KM HRRR SHOW THE SHOWERS EVOLVING INTO A
STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL BY LATE TONIGHT. SFC WINDS WILL
BE OUT OF THE NORTH AT AROUND 10 MPH...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS IN
THE HUDSON VALLEY...AS AIR IS FUNNELED DOWN BETWEEN THE TERRAIN.
RAINFALL WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT IN INTENSITY...ALTHOUGH A FEW
BRIEF PERIODS OF MORE MODERATE RAINFALL CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
WITH CLOUDY AND DANK CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...TEMPS WON/T DROP OFF
TOO MUCH FROM THEIR CURRENT READINGS. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO
MAINLY BE IN THE 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ON THURSDAY...THE STACKED LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE FROM JUST
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND TO SOUTH OF CAPE COD. THE CYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF CLOUDS
ACROSS OUR AREA. PERIODS OF STEADY RAINFALL EARLY IN THE DAY WILL
TURN INTO SHOWERS TOWARDS EVENING. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOL
DUE TO THE CLOUDS/RAIN...WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S...WARMEST IN SOUTHERN AREAS.
THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...AS THE LOW SLOWLY LIFTS TOWARDS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AND WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM. THE
STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
TOWARDS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT THERE STILL WILL BE SOME
SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME. IT LOOKS TO REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY AS
WELL...AS THERE WILL BE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. LOWS
ON THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...AND HIGHS
ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.
CLOUDS MAY FINALLY START TO BREAK UP ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN
AREAS. MIN TEMPS ON FRI NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY INITIALLY UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS DURING THE WEEKEND BEFORE IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR THE
START OF NEXT WEEK.
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE COASTAL LOW AND DEEP
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXITING NORTHEAST TO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...WITH THE FORECAST AREA UNDERNEATH A NORTHWEST FLOW
REGIME. A POTENT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL QUICKLY DIVE
SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN CANADA IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW SATURDAY AND
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST
OF THE CAPITAL REGION TO FAVORABLE UPSLOPE AREAS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. ENOUGH FORCING LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE TO MENTION WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION. SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO THE DAY SUNDAY AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND FOR THE START OF
NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHTS
RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION. DRY WEATHER AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY ALONG WITH SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS POTENTIALLY REACHING 70 ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY.
LONG TERM GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE HANDLING THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT THAT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE
COUNTRY AND MOVE EAST DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTION OF NEXT
WEEK. HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES...WITH THE 12Z GFS BEING
SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER THAN THE 12Z ECMWF DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF SLOWS THE FRONTAL
PROGRESSION AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THE WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE MID-HUDSON
VALLEY...BEFORE WARMING FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK INTO THE MID 50S
TO MID 60S ACROSS THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SPRAWLING COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF THE
DELMARVA WILL PROVIDE A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
AS WE GO THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...ALL TAF SITES WILL EXPERIENCE VCSH
TO AT TIMES -RA CONDITIONS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY BEGINS TO
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE...ESPECIALLY
AS WE GO PAST 00Z THURSDAY. AT THE BEGINNING OF THE TAF
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FOR KALB/KPOU/KGFL ALONG THE HUDSON
VALLEY...NORTHERLY WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 20 KNOTS. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE
TO NEAR 10 KNOTS AS WE GO INTO THE OVERNIGHT. AS WE GO PAST 06Z
THURSDAY...SOME OF THE SAME AREAS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY COULD
EXPERIENCE LOW CEILINGS AND MORE PERSISTENT RAINFALL WITH IFR
CONDITIONS. IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
PAST 12Z WITH LOW CEILINGS BEING THE MAIN IMPACT. NORTHERLY WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW AFTER 12Z TO THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD FOR ALL TAF SITES
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS DUE TO A SLOW MOVING COASTAL LOW. PERIODS OF RAINFALL WILL
OCCUR AS WELL...ESP TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. AS A RESULT...RH VALUES
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED...MAINLY OVER 70 PERCENT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 5 TO 15 MPH OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
PERIODS OF RAINFALL WILL OCCUR THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. THE RAIN MAY BRIEFLY FALL MODERATE
IN INTENSITY AT TIMES. THROUGH FRIDAY...ABOUT AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF
RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY UP TO TWO INCHES ACROSS THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS IN SOUTHERN VERMONT.
DUE TO RECENT DRY WEATHER...THIS RAINFALL IS RATHER BENEFICIAL TO
THE REGION. THERE MAY BE SOME RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO
RIVER FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. THERE MAY BE SOME
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS OR FIELDS...OR IN POOR DRAINAGE
LOCATIONS...BUT THIS SHOULD BE RATHER MINIMAL IN IMPACT.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...LFM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
400 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH PERIODS OF
RAINFALL. THE STEADIEST RAIN LOOKS TO OCCUR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME SUN ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT...BOTH A SFC LOW AND A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
SITUATED JUST OFF THE VIRGINA CAPES/DELMARVA. THIS SYSTEM IS
SLOWLY DRIFTING TOWARDS THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. THE CYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND THIS SYSTEM IS BRINGING PLENTY OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE UP AND
AROUND THE UPPER LOW AND INTO NEW ENGLAND. SOME SHOWERS HAVE MOVED
FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS OUR AREA LATE THIS AFTN...AND THIS LOOKS
TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WELL. 850 HPA
EASTERLY WIND ANOMALIES REACH 3-5 STD ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE TONIGHT...SHOWING
AN IMPRESSIVE PUSH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM AN
EASTERLY DIRECTION. BOTH OUR LOCAL HIRESWRF AND THE 3KM HRRR SHOW
THE SHOWERS EVOLVING INTO A STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL BY
LATE TONIGHT. SFC WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH AT AROUND 10
MPH...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...AS AIR IS
FUNNELED DOWN BETWEEN THE TERRAIN. RAINFALL WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT IN INTENSITY...ALTHOUGH A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF MORE MODERATE
RAINFALL CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
WITH CLOUDY AND DANK CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...TEMPS WON/T DROP OFF
TOO MUCH FROM THEIR CURRENT READINGS. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO
MAINLY BE IN THE 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ON THURSDAY...THE STACKED LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE FROM JUST
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND TO SOUTH OF CAPE COD. THE CYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF CLOUDS
ACROSS OUR AREA. PERIODS OF STEADY RAINFALL EARLY IN THE DAY WILL
TURN INTO SHOWERS TOWARDS EVENING. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOL
DUE TO THE CLOUDS/RAIN...WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S...WARMEST IN SOUTHERN AREAS.
THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...AS THE LOW SLOWLY LIFTS TOWARDS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AND WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM. THE
STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
TOWARDS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT THERE STILL WILL BE SOME
SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME. IT LOOKS TO REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY AS
WELL...AS THERE WILL BE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. LOWS
ON THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...AND HIGHS
ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.
CLOUDS MAY FINALLY START TO BREAK UP ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN
AREAS. MIN TEMPS ON FRI NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY INITIALLY UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS DURING THE WEEKEND BEFORE IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR THE
START OF NEXT WEEK.
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE COASTAL LOW AND DEEP
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXITING NORTHEAST TO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...WITH THE FORECAST AREA UNDERNEATH A NORTHWEST FLOW
REGIME. A POTENT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL QUICKLY DIVE
SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN CANADA IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW SATURDAY AND
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST
OF THE CAPITAL REGION TO FAVORABLE UPSLOPE AREAS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. ENOUGH FORCING LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE TO MENTION WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION. SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO THE DAY SUNDAY AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND FOR THE START OF
NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHTS
RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION. DRY WEATHER AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY ALONG WITH SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS POTENTIALLY REACHING 70 ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY.
LONG TERM GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE HANDLING THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT THAT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE
COUNTRY AND MOVE EAST DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTION OF NEXT
WEEK. HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES...WITH THE 12Z GFS BEING
SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER THAN THE 12Z ECMWF DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF SLOWS THE FRONTAL
PROGRESSION AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THE WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE MID-HUDSON
VALLEY...BEFORE WARMING FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK INTO THE MID 50S
TO MID 60S ACROSS THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SPRAWLING COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF THE
DELMARVA WILL PROVIDE A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
AS WE GO THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...ALL TAF SITES WILL EXPERIENCE VCSH
TO AT TIMES -RA CONDITIONS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY BEGINS TO
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE...ESPECIALLY
AS WE GO PAST 00Z THURSDAY. AT THE BEGINNING OF THE TAF
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FOR KALB/KPOU/KGFL ALONG THE HUDSON
VALLEY...NORTHERLY WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 20 KNOTS. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE
TO NEAR 10 KNOTS AS WE GO INTO THE OVERNIGHT. AS WE GO PAST 06Z
THURSDAY...SOME OF THE SAME AREAS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY COULD
EXPERIENCE LOW CEILINGS AND MORE PERSISTENT RAINFALL WITH IFR
CONDITIONS. IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
PAST 12Z WITH LOW CEILINGS BEING THE MAIN IMPACT. NORTHERLY WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW AFTER 12Z TO THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD FOR ALL TAF SITES
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS DUE TO A SLOW MOVING COASTAL LOW. PERIODS OF RAINFALL WILL
OCCUR AS WELL...ESP TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. AS A RESULT...RH VALUES
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED...MAINLY OVER 70 PERCENT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 5 TO 15 MPH OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
PERIODS OF RAINFALL WILL OCCUR THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. THE RAIN MAY BRIEFLY FALL MODERATE
IN INTENSITY AT TIMES. THROUGH FRIDAY...ABOUT AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF
RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY UP TO TWO INCHES ACROSS THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS IN SOUTHERN VERMONT.
DUE TO RECENT DRY WEATHER...THIS RAINFALL IS RATHER BENEFICIAL TO
THE REGION. THERE MAY BE SOME RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO
RIVER FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. THERE MAY BE SOME
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS OR FIELDS...OR IN POOR DRAINAGE
LOCATIONS...BUT THIS SHOULD BE RATHER MINIMAL IN IMPACT.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...LFM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MELBOURNE FL
1050 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014
.DISCUSSION...
.UPDATE NR 3...QUITE A DEW POINT SPREAD FROM THE MID/UPPER 50S IN
THE COUNTIES JUST NORTH OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE UPPER 60S AND
LOW 70S MARTIN PALM BEACH COUNTIES. WEST PALM BEACH TWDR SHOWING
LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP FALLING OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES WHILE THE
06Z GFS MAV MOS POPS LOOK TOO HIGH GIVEN THE DRY AIR ADVECTING DOWN
THE PENINSULA THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS. THE LATEST RUC13 RUN WAS
INDICATING THAT THE DRIER AIR SHOULD REACH SAINT LUCIE AND NORTH
OKEECHOBEE LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD TEND TO LIMIT ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIP TO OKEECHOBEE...SAINT LUCIE AND MARTIN COUNTIES THIS
AFTERNOON. UP STREAM VORTICITY MAXES AND THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF
AN EXITING 250MB JET MAX WILL KEEP SKIES CONSIDERABLE TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. LOW LEVEL WINDS SHIFTING FROM THE
NORTH TO THE NORTHEAST WILL BRING A MOIST BUT MORE STABLE MARINE AIR
MASS ASHORE NORTH OF VERO BEACH WHERE AFTERNOON POPS ARE LESS THAN
15 PERCENT...PRECIP NOT FORECAST.
.UPDATE NR 2...REMOVE FOG FROM APPLICABLE ZONES. ANOTHER UPDATE NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION TO POSSIBLY REMOVE PRECIP FROM INDIAN RIVER
OKEECHOBEE SAINT LUCIE AND MARTIN COUNTIES IF DRY AIR MOVES DOWN
THAT FAR.
.UPDATE...SENT SOME UPDATES TO ZFP AND GRIDS THIS MORNING TO ADD
PATCHY FOG MENTION. SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED FROM
MELBOURNE TO THE TREASURE COAST IN INDIAN RIVER AND SAINT LUCIE
COUNTIES...IN THE PREFRONTAL AIRMASS THAT STILL HAS FAIRLY HIGH
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE. BOUNDARY LAYER DRYING AND SOME MORNING SUN
SHOULD ALLOW THE FOG TO BURN OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER 9 AM AS LOW
LVL FLOW BECOMES NW/N INTO MID MORNING.
TODAY...CLOSED MID LAYER LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD OFF THE MID
ATLC TODAY WITH A TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE SFC LOW
OFFSHORE PUSHING SOUTHWARD THROUGH NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS
MORNING AND TOWARD THE SRN TREASURE COAST AND OKEECHOBEE COUNTY THIS
AFTERNOON. LOW LVL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT AND SOME WANING LIFT
FROM A DEPARTING UPPER LVL JET SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO AGAIN SPARK
SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS FAR SRN PORTIONS OF E CENTRAL FL THIS
AFTERNOON WHERE PWATS WILL REMAIN FROM 1.7 TO 1.8 INCHES ACROSS FAR
SRN SECTIONS. WILL KEEP CENTRAL/NRN SECTIONS DRY WITH CONSIDERABLE
UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS INTO THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THE CIRRUS BAND STARTS
TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO
15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 ALONG THE VOLUSIA COUNTY
COAST TO THE MID 80S ACROSS THE SRN INTERIOR.
TONIGHT...MODELS INDICATE SFC BOUNDARY SHOULD SLIP SOUTH OF MARTIN
COUNTY THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT LINGERING MOISTURE ACROSS FAR SRN
SECTIONS INTO THE EVENING WILL SUPPORT 20-30 PCT CHANCE FOR SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SRN SECTIONS INTO THE EVENING HOURS...AND
SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS MARTIN COUNTY THROUGH THE NIGHT. CENTRAL AND
NRN SECTIONS SHOULD SEE CLEARING AS UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS THAT HAS BEEN
OVER THE AREA FOR AWHILE SHIFTS SLOWLY TO THE SE. LOWS WILL DROP
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S NORTH 65-70 ACROSS S CSTL SECTIONS.
THU-THU NIGHT...A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE
NORTHEAST U.S. COAST SLOWLY PULLS AWAY NORTHEASTWARD WHILE RATHER
FLAT ZONAL FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. BROAD
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE ARKLATECH
REGION. A FRESH NORTHEAST WIND FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL BE FELT
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS DRIER
CONDITIONS SOUTHWARD SO HAVE PULLED POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES FOR THIS PERIOD AS DEEPEST MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH TIGHT
GRADIENT REMAINS STYMIED OVER THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA.
HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND
60 DEGREES NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR TO THE LOW/MID 60S FURTHER
SOUTH OVER THE INTERIOR...EXCEPT MID/UPPER 60S COCOA BEACH SOUTH
THROUGH THE TREASURE COAST.
FRI-FRI NIGHT...AN UPPER IMPULSE WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. AND FLORIDA PENINSULA OVER THIS PERIOD. ENERGY WILL
ALSO TRAVERSE THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA FROM THE SOUTHWEST RIDING
NORTHEAST ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE THERE.
THERE WILL REMAIN A FINE LINE OF DEEPER LEVEL MOISTURE SOUTHWARD AND
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW STILL WITH EXACT PLACEMENT/STRENGTH OF
FEATURES TO GO ALONG WITH TIMING. WILL CONTINUE A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE TREASURE COAST AND SOUTHERN OKEECHOBEE
COUNTY WITH 20 PERCENT POPS FURTHER NORTHWARD TOWARDS
MELBOURNE...BUT JUST SOUTH OF KISSIMMEE.
SAT-TUE...THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED IMPULSE WILL CONTINUE ITS
SOUTHWARD DIVE SOUTH AND EAST AWAY FROM EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA ON SAT.
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND FLOW ALOFT FOLLOWS SAT-SUN UNTIL A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE PARKS ACROSS THE AREA MON-TUE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
SLOW TO BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH THE CENTER HAVING PULLED OFF OF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY TUE. A LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE COMPONENT
OF WIND IS FORECAST THROUGH THIS TIME. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF WANT TO
BRING A DISTURBANCE OUT OF THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN TO NEAR WEST CUBA
BY THE END OF THIS PERIOD WITH THE GFS MUCH STRONGER WITH THIS
FEATURE.
SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY LINGER AROUND THE TREASURE COAST ON
SAT WITH DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING ON SUN. WITH DEEPER ONSHORE FLOW
RETURNING EARLY NEXT WEEK WE MAY SEE INCREASING CHANCES FOR
DEVELOPING COASTAL SHOWERS MON-TUE TIMEFRAME. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
LOWER 80S WITH 60S FOR LOWS...EXCEPT COOLER LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR WHICH MAY REALIZE UPPER 50S.
&&
.AVIATION...
UPATE...VFR WITH SCT AOA FL120 NORTH TERMINALS AND BKN-OVC AOA FL120
SOUTHERN TAF SITES. TEMPO MVFR IN/NEAR ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS VERO BEACH SOUTH.
PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION
SOME SCT-BKN STRATUS AND PATCHY IFR FOG IS DEVELOPING FROM
KSFB-KMCO. SCT-BKN LOW CLOUDS WILL CONT TO DVLP ACROSS NRN INTERIOR
AREAS THRU 11Z. SFC FRONT PUSHING SOUTH AND DEVELOPING DRIER
NORTHERLY FLOW SHOULD ALLOW STRATUS/BR TO DISSIPATE FAIRLY SOON
AFTER SUNRISE. AS SFC FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF KMLB THIS AFTERNOON THERE
WILL BE A CHC FOR SHRA/TSRA FROM KFPR-KSUA. INCLUDED VCSH AT
KFPR/KSUA THIS AFTN FOR NOW. MAY NEED TO ADD TSRA TO FCST WITH LATER
UPDTS.
&&
.MARINE...
CURRENT-THIS AFTERNOON...BUOYS RECORDING NORTHWEST WINDS NORTH OF
THE CAPE AND WEST NORTHWEST WINDS CAPE TO FORT PIERCE INLET WHERE
THE FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH. STILL SOUTHWEST SOUTH OF FORT PIERCE
INLET BUT IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST IN THE
AFTERNOON PROVIDED THE FRONT MOVES FAR ENOUGH SOUTH. BUOY/CMAN WINS
10 TO 12 KNOTS MAX OUT TO 120NM/BUOY 41010. FORECASTING A NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WIND INCREASE LATE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN
THE PENINSULA AND COASTAL WATERS.
UPDATED WINDS AND RE RUNNING A SHORT SWAN WAVE FORECAST FOR THE
AFTERNOON TO SEE IF THERE IS ENOUGH OF A DIFFERENCE TO CHANGE WAVE
HEIGHTS FOR THE AFTERNOON.
PREVIOUS MARINE DISCUSSION
SFC FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE NRN WATERS THIS MORNING AND SRN
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15
KNOTS OFFSHORE WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 4-5 FT AND HIGHER IN THE GULF
STREAM. WILL RAISE SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES FOR LATE
AFTN AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE OFFSHORE GULF STREAM WATERS.
THU-THU NIGHT...NE WINDS 10-15 KTS...PERHAPS SLIGHTLY HIGHER AWAY
FROM THE COAST SOUTH OF VERO BEACH. SEAS 2-3 FT NEAR SHORE AND 3-4
FT GULF STREAM/OFFSHORE.
FRI-FRI NIGHT...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE SOUTHERN FL PENINSULA/FL STRAITS AND HIGH PRESSURE TRYING
TO NOSE IN FROM THE NORTH. STILL MAINLY NE WINDS APPROACHING 15 KTS
AWAY FROM THE COAST BUT FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 15-20 KTS SOUTH FROM
THE CAPE DURING THE DAY THRU FRI EVENING. CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS MAY
BE NECESSARY HERE. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD TO 4-5 FT SOUTH OF FT.
PIERCE DURING THE DAY AND PERHAPS 5-6 FT FRI NIGHT GULF STREAM/WELL
OFFSHORE FROM SEBASTIAN INLET SOUTHWARD.
SAT-SUN...THE PREVIOUS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN
PENINSULA WILL GRADUALLY PULL AWAY WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN THE
N/NE WINDS. SEAS WILL ALSO SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD FROM THE WEST.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MIN RHS WILL DROP TO 35-40 PCT OVER THE NRN INTERIOR TODAY WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. NO HEADLINES NEEDED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 79 58 78 59 / 0 0 0 0
MCO 84 61 81 61 / 0 0 0 10
MLB 82 64 79 66 / 10 10 10 10
VRB 83 67 81 68 / 20 10 10 10
LEE 83 58 81 58 / 0 0 0 0
SFB 83 60 81 60 / 0 0 0 0
ORL 84 62 82 62 / 0 0 0 0
FPR 83 68 80 68 / 30 20 10 10
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
FORECASTS...WIMMER
IMPACT WX...BLOTTMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
939 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK.
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER OR NEAR THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
TEMPERATURES ARE FALLING QUICKLY UNDER IDEAL RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...THIS IS LIKELY TO END SOON AS FAIRLY THICK
CIRRUS IS QUICKLY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF A POTENT
SHORTWAVE. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW WARMER
OVERNIGHT LOWS WHICH HAS BEEN A TREND FOR SEVERAL RUNS NOW...SO
OUR LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. IT
WILL STILL BE A RATHER COOL NIGHT WITH LOWS FROM THE MID-UPPER 40S
INLAND WITH LOWER-MID 50S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...BUT IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THESE VALUES ARE STILL ABOUT A FULL CATEGORY
LOWER THAN THE LATEST RUNS OF THE RAP AND H3R MODELS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
POPS REMAIN ESSENTIALLY ZERO FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
FRIDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AT THE SURFACE...WHILE AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST
LATE DAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WHILE 23/12Z GUIDANCE DEPICTS A
DEEPENING/ POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH...LOW/MID LEVELS REMAIN
VERY DRY. THUS...THE TROUGH SHOULD CROSS THE REGION WITH NOTHING
MORE THAN HIGH CLOUDS. OTHERWISE...TEMPS FRIDAY WILL TOP OUT CLOSE
TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...IN THE MID 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS.
GIVEN THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN IDEAL.
EVEN SO...LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER/MID 40S WELL
INLAND TO MID 50S ON THE BEACHES.
IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH SATURDAY...HEIGHTS WILL RISE ALOFT
AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND INTO THE REGION. LIGHT
OFFSHORE WINDS AND SUNSHINE WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS A BIT ABOVE
NORMAL...IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECT TYPICALLY COOL LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO
UPPER 50S...WARMEST ON THE BEACHES. GUIDANCE DEPICTION OF LOW/MID
LEVEL THICKNESS TRENDS HINTS AT A WEAKENING/DRY COLD FRONT SLIPPING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN/WESTERN GULF
WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION. THUS...THIS WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE IN THE VICINITY BY SUNDAY. OFFSHORE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND SUNSHINE WILL ONCE AGAIN SUPPORT SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT...A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC WITH SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS...SHOULD GET MINS BACK DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC. THIS WILL SETUP LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW AND A GRADUAL
RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND THEN MAINLY NEAR THE COAST TUESDAY. HIGHS BOTH DAYS
ABOVE NORMAL AROUND 80 TO THE LOWER 80S. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL
U.S. AND THEN SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD TOWARD THE REGION BY THURSDAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO HANDLE THE PROGRESSION AND STRENGTH OF THIS
TROUGH DIFFERENTLY. HAVE NOT BEEN ABLE TO SEE THE ECMWF SOLUTION
THIS MORNING...SO MAINLY GOING WITH GFS. THE GFS NOW LOOKS WETTER
THURSDAY AS IT DEEPENS THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST AND DRAWS IN
BETTER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT. HAVE KEPT
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BOTH DAYS FOR NOW GIVEN UNCERTAINTY. TEMPERATURES
A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 AND LOWS
IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...NO CONCERNS.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER AND DIMINISH OVER THE WATERS THIS
EVENING. N/NW WINDS OF 5-10 KT WITH SEAS 1-2 FT WILL PREVAIL.
NO HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WINDS 15 KT OR
LESS ACCOMPANIED BY SEAS 3 FT OR LESS. WIND DIRECTION WILL BE
PRIMARILY MODULATED BY THE POSITION...STRENGTH AND ORIENTATION OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH AND WEST OF THE WATERS. NORTH
WINDS 10 KT OR LESS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT COULD BRIEFLY SURGE TO
10-15 KT SATURDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER TROUGH PUSHES OFFSHORE AND THE
SURFACE HIGH EXPANDS INTO THE REGION. A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL PREVAIL SATURDAY PM INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH OFFSHORE WINDS
10 KT OR LESS GIVING WAY TO ONSHORE WINDS AS THE HIGH EXPANDS NORTH
OF THE WATERS.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
ST
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
957 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014
.DISCUSSION...
903 PM CDT
THE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE TO DISSIPATE POPS AT A QUICKER
RATE...HOLD ONTO MORE CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND ADD
DENSE MENTION TO THE FOG WORDING OVER NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS.
THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT HAD BEEN APPROACHING STEADILY TOWARD THE
AREA THE PAST 24 HOURS HAS DIMINISHED GREATLY SINCE MID-
AFTERNOON...LOSING MUCH OF ITS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. FORCING FOR
RAIN SHOWERS HAS ALSO BEEN DIMINISHING WITH MORE LIMITED MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE WITHIN THE AREA OF ASCENT...SO SHOWERS HAVE QUICKLY
BEEN WANING. THE SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS SURVIVING SHOULD CONTINUE
SLOWLY EAST WITH A GRADUAL FADE INTO OVERNIGHT.
WITH THE HIGHER DEW POINT PLUME OF UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S BROUGHT
UP TO EASTERN IA AND NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL IL BY THE
TROUGH...CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE FOR FOG. ONE THING AGAINST FOG
DEVELOPMENT IS EXISTING CLOUDS WHICH AS SEEN ON THE 00Z DVN RAOB
ARE FAIRLY DEEP /SEVERAL THOUSAND FEET SATURATED LAYER/. THIS AREA
LOOKS TO SLOW ITS MOVEMENT EAST OVER THE CWA THUS NOT ALLOWING
MUCH CLEARING FOR NORTHEAST IL AND NORTHWEST IN...INCLUDING
CHICAGO. MORE PROBLEMATIC WILL BE POSSIBLY SOME CLEARING OF THIS
CLOUD LAYER IN NORTH CENTRAL IL LATE ALLOWING FOR NEARBY VERY LOW
STRATUS AND SOME FOG ALREADY BEING OBSERVED TO JUST EXPAND IN AND
WORSEN THROUGH DAYBREAK. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND HIGH-RES GUIDANCE
FIELDS HAVE TRENDED THIS ROUTE IN THE GENERAL ROCKFORD AND DIXON
AREAS. HAVE BUMPED UP FOG WORDING THERE AND COULD SEE A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY BEING NEEDED DEPENDING ON HOW AGGRESSIVE THE LOWERING IS.
AGAIN FURTHER EASTWARD TOWARD CHICAGO EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO LIMIT
ANY FOG THAT GRADUALLY DEVELOPS FROM GETTING TOO BAD.
HAVE BUMPED UP MINS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER WITH THE CLOUDS
EXPECTED TO HANG ON A GOOD PART OF THE NIGHT IN MOST PLACES.
MTF
//PREV DISCUSSION...
327 PM CDT
AFTERNOON GOES VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH
PROPAGATING THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH A WEAK
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE REFLECTION OVER EAST CENTRAL IOWA. AS EXPECTED
THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD/INTO THIS SYSTEM IS RATHER SPARSE...
WITH A FAIRLY NARROW RIBBON OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST IL AND SOUTHERN WI. HIGH-RES
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THIS EVENING...THOUGH WITH
COVERAGE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT LIMITED AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN WITH LOSS OF DEFINITION OF
THE SURFACE WAVE AND LOW PRESSURE TROUGH. IN ADDITION TO THE
EXTENSIVE MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL LIKELY OBSCURE PARTIAL SOLAR ECLIPSE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...LOWER CLOUDS ALSO EXPECTED AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AXIS ARRIVES. SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA WHERE LIGHT WINDS AND 45-50 DEGREE
SURFACE DEW POINT TEMPS WILL RESULT IN HIGH LOW LEVEL RH...THOUGH
CLEARING SKIES WILL BE MORE LIKELY WEST OF THE CWA WHERE SIGNIFICANT
DENSE FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. AT LEAST CLOUD COVER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL KEEP TEMPS A
LITTLE MILDER OVERNIGHT.
SHORT-WAVE WILL MOVE QUICKLY SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH MODEST HEIGHT RISES AND A SUBTLE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA. ANOTHER TRAILING SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER
THE ROCKIES IS PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS MISSOURI AND
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ILLINOIS FRIDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WHICH MAY
KEEP A LITTLE CLOUD COVER AROUND. OTHERWISE...DOMINANT WEATHER
FEATURE BECOMES A BROAD UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER WEST TEXAS WHICH
COVERS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS INTO THE WEEKEND. A STRONG 150+ KT
UPPER JET FLATTENS THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AS IT RIDES ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER FRIDAY...THOUGH THE MAIN AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE
REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. A
COLD FRONT DOES TRAIL INTO THE REGION HOWEVER...MOVING ACROSS THE
CWA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SOME GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE SOME VERY
SPOTTY/VERY LIGHT QPF WITH FROPA DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS SATURDAY
ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE MUCH LESS IMPRESSIVE WITH PRECIP THAN WITH
CURRENT WAVE...WITH SREF POPS LESS THAN 20 PERCENT. COLD FRONT
COMPLETES THE TRANSIT OF THE CWA SATURDAY MORNING...THOUGH PACIFIC
NATURE OF THE FRONT PRODUCES ONLY MODEST COOLING AS IT SHIFTS WINDS
TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY. LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROGS AND
POTENTIAL FOR A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE SUPPORT TEMPS IN THE 65-AROUND
70 RANGE DESPITE THE SLIGHT COOL ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT...AS
UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO AMPLIFY AND DEVELOP INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY SUNDAY AS
LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES ASHORE IN THE WEST...WITH A LARGE
LEE TROUGH DEVELOPING EAST OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. LOW
PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH A WARM FRONT
LIFTING ACROSS IA-IL SUNDAY NIGHT. SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF
THE WARM FRONT...IN ADDITION TO CLOUD DEVELOPMENT NORTH OF THE WARM
FRONT LOOK TO TEMPER WARM-UP ONLY SLIGHTLY...WITH 60-66 FOR HIGHS
WITH COOLEST AIR ALONG THE IL LAKE SHORE. SOME POTENTIAL FOR
ELEVATED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT
SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN IL.
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE CWA MONDAY...WITH BREEZY/WARM AND MORE
HUMID AIR IN THE WARM SECTOR SUPPORTING TEMPS IN THE 70S AREA-WIDE.
ECMWF/GFS AND GEM ALL INDICATE VERY LITTLE PRECIP IN THE WARM SECTOR
WITH THE MAIN FOCUS ALONG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST. RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THUS INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS
THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST THROUGH THE REGION.
BREEZY AND COOLER CONDITIONS THEN RETURN AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY TO
THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SOME DIFFERENCES REMAIN
WITH THE HANDLING OF THE LOW DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK...THOUGH THIS
MAINLY AFFECTS HOW QUICKLY WE DRY OUT ON TUESDAY. OTHERWISE GUIDANCE
IS ACTUALLY QUITE REASONABLE IN AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
RATZER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 03Z...
* MVFR CIGS AND VSBY OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT.
KMD
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 03Z...
SHOWERS ARE GENERALLY FALLING APART OVER NE ILLINOIS...JUST SOME
ISOLATED -SHRA AT THIS POINT. CIGS ARE SLOWLY LOWERING FROM WEST
TO EAST. GUIDANCE IS BACKING OFF ON THE EASTWARD EXTEND OF LOW
VISIBILITIES GIVEN THAT THE CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN PERSISTENT
THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT WE DO EXPECT CONTINUED GRADUAL LOWERING OF
CIGS INTO MVFR EVERYWHERE....AND TO IFR IN WESTERN AREAS.
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS NO LONGER EXPECTED...BUT THERE COULD BE
SOME MVFR OR POSSIBLY IFR VSBYS TOWARD DAYBREAK GIVEN THE MOIST
LOW LEVELS AND LIGHT FLOW AND THE LOWERING INVERSION. KMD
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 00Z...
SLOW MOVING BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE
EAST THIS EVENING. EXPECT THE BEST CHANCE FOR A SHOWER WILL BE
ALONG AND NORTH OF A KRPJ-KDPA-KORD LINE OR GENERALLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 88.
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS BEHIND THE SHOWERS WILL SPREAD INTO NE
ILLINOIS AND NW INDIANA THROUGH THE NIGHT. EXPECT WITH LIGHT WINDS
AND NO DRY AIR PUSHING IN BEHIND THE FRONT THAT CONDITIONS WILL
DETERIORATE THROUGH THE NIGHT. AREAS TO THE WEST SUCH AS AROUND
KRFD AND WEST OF THE MAIN CHICAGOLAND TERMINALS HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE OF REALLY TANKING TONIGHT WITH LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS.
GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT IFR AND EVEN LIFR CONDITIONS EAST TO
CHICAGO LATE TONIGHT AS WELL...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH TRENDS AS WE
HAVE A HARD TIME BELIEVING CLOUDS WILL CLEAR AWAY FROM WESTERN
AREAS AND WOULD STILL GENERALLY EXPECT A GRADUAL LOWERING TO LOW
END MVFR. IF CLOUDS ARE ABLE TO CLEAR FARTHER EAST...THEN THE LIFR
CONDITIONS SUGGESTED BY MOS GUIDANCE THE HRRR WOULD BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE AREA.
EXPECT DECENT CLEARING TO BE SLOW GOING BUT EXPECT LIFTING TO VFR
BY THE MIDDAY OR SO. LAKE BREEZE LOOKS TO BE CONTAINED ALONG THE
LAKESHORE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
KMD
KMD
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 03Z...
* HIGH IN CEILING TRENDS...BUT LOW-MEDIUM IN HOW LOW THE CIGS/VSBY
WILL BE.
* LOW-MEDIUM IN SPECIFIC LIFTING TIMES ON FRIDAY.
KMD
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
* FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY DRY. MVFR/FOG POSSIBLE.
* SATURDAY...DRY/VFR. GUSTY WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS.
* SUNDAY...DRY/VFR. SOUTHEAST WINDS.
* MONDAY...DRY/VFR. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS.
* TUESDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA. STRONG/GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS.
* WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS.
KMD
&&
.MARINE...
244 PM CDT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
EAST ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES RESULTING IN GENERALLY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE LAKE. THIS LOW WILL MOVE OVER JAMES BAY
SATURDAY DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN AND TURNING
WINDS TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST. THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT IS SLOW
TO TRICKLE IN AND THE AIRMASS IS SHALLOW...SO WHILE THERE ARE
GALES JUST OFF THE DECK...IT DOESNT APPEAR THAT THEY WOULD MIX
DOWN TO THE LAKE SURFACE AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL PEAK
OCCASIONALLY TO 30 KT SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN SHOULD
TREND DOWN THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK
OVER THE REGION. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO LIFT
ACROSS THE REGION AROUND MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK AND WILL ONCE AGAIN
BRING MODERATE WINDS TO LAKE MICHIGAN.
BMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
903 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014
.DISCUSSION...
903 PM CDT
THE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE TO DISSIPATE POPS AT A QUICKER
RATE...HOLD ONTO MORE CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND ADD
DENSE MENTION TO THE FOG WORDING OVER NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS.
THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT HAD BEEN APPROACHING STEADILY TOWARD THE
AREA THE PAST 24 HOURS HAS DIMINISHED GREATLY SINCE MID-
AFTERNOON...LOSING MUCH OF ITS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. FORCING FOR
RAIN SHOWERS HAS ALSO BEEN DIMINISHING WITH MORE LIMITED MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE WITHIN THE AREA OF ASCENT...SO SHOWERS HAVE QUICKLY
BEEN WANING. THE SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS SURVIVING SHOULD CONTINUE
SLOWLY EAST WITH A GRADUAL FADE INTO OVERNIGHT.
WITH THE HIGHER DEW POINT PLUME OF UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S BROUGHT
UP TO EASTERN IA AND NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL IL BY THE
TROUGH...CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE FOR FOG. ONE THING AGAINST FOG
DEVELOPMENT IS EXISTING CLOUDS WHICH AS SEEN ON THE 00Z DVN RAOB
ARE FAIRLY DEEP /SEVERAL THOUSAND FEET SATURATED LAYER/. THIS AREA
LOOKS TO SLOW ITS MOVEMENT EAST OVER THE CWA THUS NOT ALLOWING
MUCH CLEARING FOR NORTHEAST IL AND NORTHWEST IN...INCLUDING
CHICAGO. MORE PROBLEMATIC WILL BE POSSIBLY SOME CLEARING OF THIS
CLOUD LAYER IN NORTH CENTRAL IL LATE ALLOWING FOR NEARBY VERY LOW
STRATUS AND SOME FOG ALREADY BEING OBSERVED TO JUST EXPAND IN AND
WORSEN THROUGH DAYBREAK. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND HIGH-RES GUIDANCE
FIELDS HAVE TRENDED THIS ROUTE IN THE GENERAL ROCKFORD AND DIXON
AREAS. HAVE BUMPED UP FOG WORDING THERE AND COULD SEE A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY BEING NEEDED DEPENDING ON HOW AGGRESSIVE THE LOWERING IS.
AGAIN FURTHER EASTWARD TOWARD CHICAGO EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO LIMIT
ANY FOG THAT GRADUALLY DEVELOPS FROM GETTING TOO BAD.
HAVE BUMPED UP MINS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER WITH THE CLOUDS
EXPECTED TO HANG ON A GOOD PART OF THE NIGHT IN MOST PLACES.
MTF
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
327 PM CDT
AFTERNOON GOES VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH
PROPAGATING THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH A WEAK
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE REFLECTION OVER EAST CENTRAL IOWA. AS EXPECTED
THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD/INTO THIS SYSTEM IS RATHER SPARSE...
WITH A FAIRLY NARROW RIBBON OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST IL AND SOUTHERN WI. HIGH-RES
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THIS EVENING...THOUGH WITH
COVERAGE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT LIMITED AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN WITH LOSS OF DEFINITION OF
THE SURFACE WAVE AND LOW PRESSURE TROUGH. IN ADDITION TO THE
EXTENSIVE MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL LIKELY OBSCURE PARTIAL SOLAR ECLIPSE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...LOWER CLOUDS ALSO EXPECTED AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AXIS ARRIVES. SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA WHERE LIGHT WINDS AND 45-50 DEGREE
SURFACE DEW POINT TEMPS WILL RESULT IN HIGH LOW LEVEL RH...THOUGH
CLEARING SKIES WILL BE MORE LIKELY WEST OF THE CWA WHERE SIGNIFICANT
DENSE FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. AT LEAST CLOUD COVER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL KEEP TEMPS A
LITTLE MILDER OVERNIGHT.
SHORT-WAVE WILL MOVE QUICKLY SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH MODEST HEIGHT RISES AND A SUBTLE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA. ANOTHER TRAILING SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER
THE ROCKIES IS PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS MISSOURI AND
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ILLINOIS FRIDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WHICH MAY
KEEP A LITTLE CLOUD COVER AROUND. OTHERWISE...DOMINANT WEATHER
FEATURE BECOMES A BROAD UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER WEST TEXAS WHICH
COVERS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS INTO THE WEEKEND. A STRONG 150+ KT
UPPER JET FLATTENS THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AS IT RIDES ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER FRIDAY...THOUGH THE MAIN AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE
REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. A
COLD FRONT DOES TRAIL INTO THE REGION HOWEVER...MOVING ACROSS THE
CWA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SOME GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE SOME VERY
SPOTTY/VERY LIGHT QPF WITH FROPA DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS SATURDAY
ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE MUCH LESS IMPRESSIVE WITH PRECIP THAN WITH
CURRENT WAVE...WITH SREF POPS LESS THAN 20 PERCENT. COLD FRONT
COMPLETES THE TRANSIT OF THE CWA SATURDAY MORNING...THOUGH PACIFIC
NATURE OF THE FRONT PRODUCES ONLY MODEST COOLING AS IT SHIFTS WINDS
TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY. LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROGS AND
POTENTIAL FOR A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE SUPPORT TEMPS IN THE 65-AROUND
70 RANGE DESPITE THE SLIGHT COOL ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT...AS
UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO AMPLIFY AND DEVELOP INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY SUNDAY AS
LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES ASHORE IN THE WEST...WITH A LARGE
LEE TROUGH DEVELOPING EAST OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. LOW
PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH A WARM FRONT
LIFTING ACROSS IA-IL SUNDAY NIGHT. SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF
THE WARM FRONT...IN ADDITION TO CLOUD DEVELOPMENT NORTH OF THE WARM
FRONT LOOK TO TEMPER WARM-UP ONLY SLIGHTLY...WITH 60-66 FOR HIGHS
WITH COOLEST AIR ALONG THE IL LAKE SHORE. SOME POTENTIAL FOR
ELEVATED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT
SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN IL.
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE CWA MONDAY...WITH BREEZY/WARM AND MORE
HUMID AIR IN THE WARM SECTOR SUPPORTING TEMPS IN THE 70S AREA-WIDE.
ECMWF/GFS AND GEM ALL INDICATE VERY LITTLE PRECIP IN THE WARM SECTOR
WITH THE MAIN FOCUS ALONG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST. RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THUS INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS
THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST THROUGH THE REGION.
BREEZY AND COOLER CONDITIONS THEN RETURN AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY TO
THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SOME DIFFERENCES REMAIN
WITH THE HANDLING OF THE LOW DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK...THOUGH THIS
MAINLY AFFECTS HOW QUICKLY WE DRY OUT ON TUESDAY. OTHERWISE GUIDANCE
IS ACTUALLY QUITE REASONABLE IN AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
RATZER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 00Z...
* SCATTERED -SHRA THIS EVENING.
* MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AFTER THE SHOWERS...IFR PSBL LATE TONIGHT.
KMD
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z...
SLOW MOVING BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE
EAST THIS EVENING. EXPECT THE BEST CHANCE FOR A SHOWER WILL BE
ALONG AND NORTH OF A KRPJ-KDPA-KORD LINE OR GENERALLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 88.
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS BEHIND THE SHOWERS WILL SPREAD INTO NE
ILLINOIS AND NW INDIANA THROUGH THE NIGHT. EXPECT WITH LIGHT WINDS
AND NO DRY AIR PUSHING IN BEHIND THE FRONT THAT CONDITIONS WILL
DETERIORATE THROUGH THE NIGHT. AREAS TO THE WEST SUCH AS AROUND
KRFD AND WEST OF THE MAIN CHICAGOLAND TERMINALS HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE OF REALLY TANKING TONIGHT WITH LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS.
GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT IFR AND EVEN LIFR CONDITIONS EAST TO
CHICAGO LATE TONIGHT AS WELL...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH TRENDS AS WE
HAVE A HARD TIME BELIEVING CLOUDS WILL CLEAR AWAY FROM WESTERN
AREAS AND WOULD STILL GENERALLY EXPECT A GRADUAL LOWERING TO LOW
END MVFR. IF CLOUDS ARE ABLE TO CLEAR FARTHER EAST...THEN THE LIFR
CONDITIONS SUGGESTED BY MOS GUIDANCE THE HRRR WOULD BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE AREA.
EXPECT DECENT CLEARING TO BE SLOW GOING BUT EXPECT LIFTING TO VFR
BY THE MIDDAY OR SO. LAKE BREEZE LOOKS TO BE CONTAINED ALONG THE
LAKESHORE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
KMD
KMD
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 00Z...
* MEDIUM IN COVERAGE AND OCCURRENCE OF -SHRA. BETTER CHANCE FOR
ORD. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.
* HIGH IN MVFR CIGS/VSBY AND MEDIUM ON TIMING. LOW-MEDIUM IN HOW
LOW THE CIGS/VSBY WILL BE. MEDIUM ON LIFTING TIMES.
KMD
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
* FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY DRY. MVFR/FOG POSSIBLE.
* SATURDAY...DRY/VFR. GUSTY WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS.
* SUNDAY...DRY/VFR. SOUTHEAST WINDS.
* MONDAY...DRY/VFR. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS.
* TUESDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA. STRONG/GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS.
* WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS.
KMD
&&
.MARINE...
244 PM CDT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
EAST ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES RESULTING IN GENERALLY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE LAKE. THIS LOW WILL MOVE OVER JAMES BAY
SATURDAY DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN AND TURNING
WINDS TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST. THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT IS SLOW
TO TRICKLE IN AND THE AIRMASS IS SHALLOW...SO WHILE THERE ARE
GALES JUST OFF THE DECK...IT DOESNT APPEAR THAT THEY WOULD MIX
DOWN TO THE LAKE SURFACE AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL PEAK
OCCASIONALLY TO 30 KT SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN SHOULD
TREND DOWN THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK
OVER THE REGION. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO LIFT
ACROSS THE REGION AROUND MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK AND WILL ONCE AGAIN
BRING MODERATE WINDS TO LAKE MICHIGAN.
BMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
718 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014
.DISCUSSION...
327 PM CDT
AFTERNOON GOES VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH
PROPAGATING THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH A WEAK
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE REFLECTION OVER EAST CENTRAL IOWA. AS EXPECTED
THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD/INTO THIS SYSTEM IS RATHER SPARSE...
WITH A FAIRLY NARROW RIBBON OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST IL AND SOUTHERN WI. HIGH-RES
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THIS EVENING...THOUGH WITH
COVERAGE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT LIMITED AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN WITH LOSS OF DEFINITION OF
THE SURFACE WAVE AND LOW PRESSURE TROUGH. IN ADDITION TO THE
EXTENSIVE MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL LIKELY OBSCURE PARTIAL SOLAR ECLIPSE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...LOWER CLOUDS ALSO EXPECTED AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AXIS ARRIVES. SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA WHERE LIGHT WINDS AND 45-50 DEGREE
SURFACE DEW POINT TEMPS WILL RESULT IN HIGH LOW LEVEL RH...THOUGH
CLEARING SKIES WILL BE MORE LIKELY WEST OF THE CWA WHERE SIGNIFICANT
DENSE FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. AT LEAST CLOUD COVER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL KEEP TEMPS A
LITTLE MILDER OVERNIGHT.
SHORT-WAVE WILL MOVE QUICKLY SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH MODEST HEIGHT RISES AND A SUBTLE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA. ANOTHER TRAILING SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER
THE ROCKIES IS PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS MISSOURI AND
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ILLINOIS FRIDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WHICH MAY
KEEP A LITTLE CLOUD COVER AROUND. OTHERWISE...DOMINANT WEATHER
FEATURE BECOMES A BROAD UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER WEST TEXAS WHICH
COVERS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS INTO THE WEEKEND. A STRONG 150+ KT
UPPER JET FLATTENS THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AS IT RIDES ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER FRIDAY...THOUGH THE MAIN AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE
REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. A
COLD FRONT DOES TRAIL INTO THE REGION HOWEVER...MOVING ACROSS THE
CWA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SOME GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE SOME VERY
SPOTTY/VERY LIGHT QPF WITH FROPA DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS SATURDAY
ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE MUCH LESS IMPRESSIVE WITH PRECIP THAN WITH
CURRENT WAVE...WITH SREF POPS LESS THAN 20 PERCENT. COLD FRONT
COMPLETES THE TRANSIT OF THE CWA SATURDAY MORNING...THOUGH PACIFIC
NATURE OF THE FRONT PRODUCES ONLY MODEST COOLING AS IT SHIFTS WINDS
TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY. LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROGS AND
POTENTIAL FOR A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE SUPPORT TEMPS IN THE 65-AROUND
70 RANGE DESPITE THE SLIGHT COOL ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT...AS
UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO AMPLIFY AND DEVELOP INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY SUNDAY AS
LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES ASHORE IN THE WEST...WITH A LARGE
LEE TROUGH DEVELOPING EAST OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. LOW
PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH A WARM FRONT
LIFTING ACROSS IA-IL SUNDAY NIGHT. SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF
THE WARM FRONT...IN ADDITION TO CLOUD DEVELOPMENT NORTH OF THE WARM
FRONT LOOK TO TEMPER WARM-UP ONLY SLIGHTLY...WITH 60-66 FOR HIGHS
WITH COOLEST AIR ALONG THE IL LAKE SHORE. SOME POTENTIAL FOR
ELEVATED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT
SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN IL.
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE CWA MONDAY...WITH BREEZY/WARM AND MORE
HUMID AIR IN THE WARM SECTOR SUPPORTING TEMPS IN THE 70S AREA-WIDE.
ECMWF/GFS AND GEM ALL INDICATE VERY LITTLE PRECIP IN THE WARM SECTOR
WITH THE MAIN FOCUS ALONG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST. RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THUS INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS
THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST THROUGH THE REGION.
BREEZY AND COOLER CONDITIONS THEN RETURN AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY TO
THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SOME DIFFERENCES REMAIN
WITH THE HANDLING OF THE LOW DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK...THOUGH THIS
MAINLY AFFECTS HOW QUICKLY WE DRY OUT ON TUESDAY. OTHERWISE GUIDANCE
IS ACTUALLY QUITE REASONABLE IN AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
RATZER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 00Z...
* SCATTERED -SHRA THIS EVENING.
* MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AFTER THE SHOWERS...IFR PSBL LATE TONIGHT.
KMD
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z...
SLOW MOVING BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE
EAST THIS EVENING. EXPECT THE BEST CHANCE FOR A SHOWER WILL BE
ALONG AND NORTH OF A KRPJ-KDPA-KORD LINE OR GENERALLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 88.
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS BEHIND THE SHOWERS WILL SPREAD INTO NE
ILLINOIS AND NW INDIANA THROUGH THE NIGHT. EXPECT WITH LIGHT WINDS
AND NO DRY AIR PUSHING IN BEHIND THE FRONT THAT CONDITIONS WILL
DETERIORATE THROUGH THE NIGHT. AREAS TO THE WEST SUCH AS AROUND
KRFD AND WEST OF THE MAIN CHICAGOLAND TERMINALS HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE OF REALLY TANKING TONIGHT WITH LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS.
GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT IFR AND EVEN LIFR CONDITIONS EAST TO
CHICAGO LATE TONIGHT AS WELL...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH TRENDS AS WE
HAVE A HARD TIME BELIEVING CLOUDS WILL CLEAR AWAY FROM WESTERN
AREAS AND WOULD STILL GENERALLY EXPECT A GRADUAL LOWERING TO LOW
END MVFR. IF CLOUDS ARE ABLE TO CLEAR FARTHER EAST...THEN THE LIFR
CONDITIONS SUGGESTED BY MOS GUIDANCE THE HRRR WOULD BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE AREA.
EXPECT DECENT CLEARING TO BE SLOW GOING BUT EXPECT LIFTING TO VFR
BY THE MIDDAY OR SO. LAKE BREEZE LOOKS TO BE CONTAINED ALONG THE
LAKESHORE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
KMD
KMD
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 00Z...
* MEDIUM IN COVERAGE AND OCCURRENCE OF -SHRA. BETTER CHANCE FOR
ORD. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.
* HIGH IN MVFR CIGS/VSBY AND MEDIUM ON TIMING. LOW-MEDIUM IN HOW
LOW THE CIGS/VSBY WILL BE. MEDIUM ON LIFTING TIMES.
KMD
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
* FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY DRY. MVFR/FOG POSSIBLE.
* SATURDAY...DRY/VFR. GUSTY WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS.
* SUNDAY...DRY/VFR. SOUTHEAST WINDS.
* MONDAY...DRY/VFR. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS.
* TUESDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA. STRONG/GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS.
* WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS.
KMD
&&
.MARINE...
244 PM CDT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
EAST ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES RESULTING IN GENERALLY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE LAKE. THIS LOW WILL MOVE OVER JAMES BAY
SATURDAY DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN AND TURNING
WINDS TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST. THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT IS SLOW
TO TRICKLE IN AND THE AIRMASS IS SHALLOW...SO WHILE THERE ARE
GALES JUST OFF THE DECK...IT DOESNT APPEAR THAT THEY WOULD MIX
DOWN TO THE LAKE SURFACE AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL PEAK
OCCASIONALLY TO 30 KT SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN SHOULD
TREND DOWN THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK
OVER THE REGION. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO LIFT
ACROSS THE REGION AROUND MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK AND WILL ONCE AGAIN
BRING MODERATE WINDS TO LAKE MICHIGAN.
BMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1232 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
.DISCUSSION...
749 PM CDT
FOR AN EVENING UPDATE HAVE HELD ON TO FORECAST CLOUD COVER LONGER
TONIGHT...NAMELY FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
CHICAGO METRO AND SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FROM THERE.
SURFACE RIDGING IS BUILDING SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING INTO NORTHERN
ILLINOIS AND WIND SPEEDS HAVE COME DOWN QUITE A BIT OUTSIDE OF THE
IMMEDIATE LAKE SHORE. SUBSIDENCE ALOFT IS CONTINUING AS WELL PER
WATER VAPOR AND DIAGNOSTIC MODEL SOUNDINGS...BUT CLOUDS HAVE
SLOWED THEIR RATE OF DIMINISHING...POSSIBLY DUE TO NO MORE CLOUD
TOP WARMING FROM THE SUN.
WHILE THE CLOUD LAYER IS VERY THIN IN DEPTH AS INDICATED BY
REGIONAL AMDAR DATA...FORESEE CLOUDS HANGING ON A WHILE LONGER
WITH NIGHTFALL. THE LOCAL 8KM ARW...AND RAP TO SOME DEGREE...INDICATE
LITTLE MOVEMENT IN THE MOST SOLID SATURATION ALONG AND EAST OF
INTERSTATE 55 THROUGH MIDNIGHT...AND THEN AS CLOUD-BEARING FLOW
TURNS EASTERLY THE MOISTURE ADVECTS WITH IT AND GRADUALLY THINS.
THIS WAS GENERALLY DEPICTED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT JUST
HAVE SHIFTED BACK IN TIMING SEVERAL HOURS.
MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES TO BETTER FIT THIS
REASONING AND THAT DID LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN MIN TEMPS IN A FEW
PLACES...BUT OTHERWISE NO CHANGES MADE.
MTF
//PREV DISCUSSION...
309 PM CDT
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOCUS ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND TIMING
WITH A COUPLE OF SYSTEMS WHICH WILL AFFECT THE REGION THURSDAY AND
NEXT MONDAY. ALSO...IT APPEARS THAT SOME 70 DEGREE TEMPERATURES ARE
POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AS WELL AS
ON MONDAY.
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A STRONG MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WHICH HAD DUG SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY IS NOW EXITING
THE AREA ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE SOUTHEAST. SUBSIDENCE IN THE
WAKE OF THIS FEATURE WAS EVIDENT BOTH IN RISING SURFACE PRESSURE
ACROSS THE CWA...AND IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AS EXTENSIVE AREA
OF STRATOCU ACROSS THE REGION ERODES FROM THE NORTH ACROSS WI/MI AND
LAKE MICHIGAN. EARLIER LAKE-INDUCED SHOWERS HAVE WEAKENED AND FADED
AS EXPECTED DUE TO LOWERING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND ASSOCIATED
WARMING ALOFT. CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN
COVERAGE INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH PERHAPS JUST SOME PATCHY THIN
SHALLOW STRATOCU LINGERING OFF THE LAKE BY LATE EVENING. LOOKING AT
THE BIGGER PICTURE...HIGH-AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE ANALYZED OVER THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE NATION WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND WESTERN/NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING...MAINTAINING SUBSIDENCE WHICH SHOULD FURTHER ERODE
LINGERING CLOUDS AND ALLOW SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WITH CLEARING SKIES AND
DECREASING WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS TONIGHT...
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP OFF INTO THE 30S IN MANY AREAS AWAY FROM
THE IMMEDIATE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE AND CORE OF CHICAGO. LATE NIGHT
MINS IN THE MID 30S AWAY FROM THE METRO AREA WILL LIKELY ALLOW AREAS
OF FROST TO DEVELOP WHERE WINDS DECOUPLE BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE.
UPPER AND LOW LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES REMAIN OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY ALLOWING PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE...THOUGH WITH ONLY MODEST
WARMING DUE TO EASTERLY WIND COMPONENT OFF LAKE AND COOLER UPSTREAM
AIR MASS. A BLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE APPEARS REASONABLE BASED ON RAW
MODEL LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS...WITH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON MAXES
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S ALONG THE LAKE TO THE UPPER 50S
ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN/SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA. ATTENTION THEN
TURNS BACK TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS A WELL-DEFINED
SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND
DAKOTAS BEFORE APPROACHING THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. HEIGHT/PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST NUDGES THE
SURFACE RIDGE AWAY TO OUR EAST AND INDUCES INCREASING
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH
OVERNIGHT. CLEAR-PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
LIKELY ALLOW FOR QUICK DECOUPLING OF BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS EARLY
WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE 30S AGAIN IN OUTLYING
AREAS...THOUGH SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS AND THE INCREASE IN
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL LIKELY LIMIT FROST SOMEWHAT.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE UPPER MIDWEST SHORT WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY...WITH THE BEST ORGANIZED DEEP LIFT
GENERALLY NORTH OF THE WFO CHICAGO CWA. THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
DOES SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA LATER IN THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT HOWEVER...
THOUGH WITH MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE GULF INITIALLY BLOCKED BY THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WHICH EXTENDS SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
ARKLATEX REGION FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THUS MOISTURE RETURN IS NOT
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM...THOUGH A PERIOD OF SHOWERS DOES
LOOK FAIRLY LIKELY THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. PRECIP POTENTIAL
LOOKS TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AS IT MOVES INTO
NORTH CENTRAL IL DURING THE MID-LATE MORNING HOURS AND SPREADING
INTO NORTHEAST IL DURING THE AFTERNOON. FORCING WEAKENS THURSDAY
EVENING AS THE TROUGH RUNS INTO THE WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE...WITH
PRECIP EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE SPOTTY THURSDAY NIGHT AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND
WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT OF PACIFIC ORIGIN PASS EAST OF
THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING...WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN DURING
THE DAY. TEMPERATURES ACTUALLY WARM IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM AS
THE SURFACE RIDGE DRIFTS EAST DURING THE DAY AND WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
AROUND REBUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS ALLOWS WARM ADVECTION
BY AFTERNOON. MODEL THERMAL PROGS INDICATE SOME LOW-MID 60S ACROSS
NORTHERN IL FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
LONGER RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SPREADING BROAD
UPPER RIDGE EASTWARD FROM THE PLAINS AND ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND
GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHILE DEEP UPPER TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. MODELS DEPICT STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
AND WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPING AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND
LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS AND THE UPPER MIDWEST SUNDAY...
THOUGH AGAIN WITH LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN FOR THE MAGNITUDE OF THE
FLOW. THIS ALLOWS US TO WARM UP SIGNIFICANTLY HOWEVER...WITH HIGHS
LIKELY GETTING ABOVE 70 DEGREES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CWA...AND OVER MOST OF IT MONDAY. SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT
APPROACHES MONDAY WITH AN ATTENDANT CHANCE OF RAIN AND INCREASED
CLOUD COVER. A SECOND LOW IS DEPICTED LIFTING ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT-TUESDAY MAINTAINING RAIN THREAT...AND ALSO LEADING TO MUCH
COOLER WEATHER AGAIN TUESDAY BEHIND THE SYSTEM COLD FRONT.
RATZER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* MVFR CIGS EARLY THIS MORNING.
* EAST WINDS MID MORNING THRU EARLY EVENING. CMS
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. LIGHT
EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST LATER THIS MORNING...
THEN TURN BACK EAST/NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH A POSSIBLE LAKE
BREEZE. PREVAILING SPEEDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN UNDER 10KTS.
HIGH MVFR CIGS AROUND 3KFT WILL SLOWLY SCATTER OUT AND DISSIPATE
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SKC EXPECTED LATER TODAY WITH INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT. CMS
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* MEDIUM FOR MVFR CIGS EARLY THIS MORNING.
* HIGH FOR WIND THRU THE PERIOD. CMS
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
* THURSDAY...CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHRA. SOUTH WINDS.
* FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...DRY/VFR. WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS.
* SUNDAY...DRY/VFR. SOUTH WINDS.
* MONDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS.
KJB
&&
.MARINE...
215 PM...LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN NEW YORK WILL MERGE WITH ANOTHER
LOW OVER NEAR THE DELMARVA AREA TONIGHT...AND RAPIDLY DEEPEN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY JUST SOUTH OF CAPE COD. THIS LOW WILL
THEN TRACK NORTHEAST TO NOVA SCOTIA BY SATURDAY MORNING.
MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN TIP OF JAMES
BAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING EXTENDING THROUGH THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WILL SLOWLY BUILD EAST. THE BRISK
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS CURRENTLY OVER THE LAKE WILL DIMINISH AND
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY AS THE
RIDGE AXIS CROSSES THE LAKE. WHILE WINDS SHOULD DROP BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS DURG THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING...RESIDUAL WAVE ACTION WILL BE SLOWER TO DAMPEN AND STILL
EXPECT THAT WAVES WILL REMAIN...ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. AS THE RIDGE MOVES TO THE EAST OF THE
LAKE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...REACHING THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY THURSDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL SET UP A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY GRADIENT OVER
THE LAKE WITH WINDS INCREASING TO ARND 20-25KT THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY UNTIL AN ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT
PUSHES ACROSS THE LAKE THURSDAY NIGHT.
KREIN
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 4 AM WEDNESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
355 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE CLEAR OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF
MICHIGAN AND INDIANA. CLOUDS OVER EASTERN AREAS WILL SLOWLY ERODE
THIS EVENING LEAVING BEHIND PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL REACH THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014
DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA AND RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER
CONDITIONS...A FEW WEATHER ISSUES DO PERSIST WITH RESPECT TO CLOUD
COVER AND TEMPERATURES TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY TELLS THE STORY WITH STRATUS DECK STILL
LINGERING OVER EASTERN HALF OF FORECAST AREA AS OF 18Z. SOME SLOW
EROSION HAS BEEN NOTED OVER WESTERN EDGE AND SOME CLEARING
APPROACHING FROM NORTHEAST PER LIGHT NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL WINDS.
MODELS REMAIN RATHER PERSISTENT THAT AREA OF STRATUS WILL CONTINUE
TO THIN AND DISSIPATE THIS EVENING PER HRRR RH AND TOTAL CLOUD COVER
PLOTS ALONG WITH LATEST RAP13 RH FIELDS IN THE 900-850MB LAYERS.
CONCERN THOUGH LIES WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH
A RATHER STOUT LOW LEVEL INVERSION. 925-850MB THERMAL RIDGE REMAINS
OVER EASTERN IL AND WESTERN IN THROUGH THE NIGHT ALONG WITH 500MB
RIDGE AXIS. TYPICALLY STRATUS EROSION DOES NOT OCCUR UNTIL PASSAGE
OF THESE FEATURES. HOWEVER...SOUNDINGS SHOW A VERY DRY AIRMASS
SITTING ATOP VERY THIN LAYER OF CLOUDS AND INCREASING SUBSIDENCE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY CONTINUE TO ERODE THE CLOUD DECK
AS ADVERTISED. HAVE CONTINUED TO SLOW THE EROSION IN THE SKY COVER
GRIDS BUT DID KEEP THE OPTIMISTIC ATTITUDE IN ORDER TO MATCH
SURROUNDING SITES FOR A MORE CONSISTENT LOOKING FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES TO BE IMPACTED SIGNIFICANTLY IF THESE CLOUDS DO HOLD ON
THROUGH THE NIGHT. FOR NOW STAYED WITH PERSISTENCE AND OPTIMISTIC
FORECAST WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE LOWER AND MID 30S. PREVIOUS
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN THE BEST PERFORMING GUIDANCE OVER THE LAST
WEEK...15 DAYS AND 30 DAYS SO WILL RIDE WITH THAT. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW A VERY MOIST SHALLOW LAYER NEAR SURFACE UNDER
STRONG INVERSION WITH VERY DRY AIR ALOFT AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH A
DEEP COLUMN. THIS USUALLY AN IDEAL SETUP FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT SO
ADDED PATCHY FOG TO GRIDS.
EXPECT THURSDAY TO REMAIN DRY AHEAD OF NEXT WEAK SHORT WAVE WITH
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS IN THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. RAWBLEND
GUIDANCE PERFORMING BEST WITH MID TO UPPER 50S EXPECTED FOR HIGHS.
&&
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT WAS LAGGING BEHIND LOWER LEVELS...WITH QUESTIONABLE
SATURATION THROUGH THE CLOUD LAYER. REFINED THE TIMING OF THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS GIVEN THE LATEST MODEL EXPECTATIONS. VERY LITTLE
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM GIVEN LIMITED SATURATION...
WEAK LIFT AND LACK OF MOISTURE. A BACK DOOR TYPE OF FRONT SHOULD
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND BECOME STATIONARY NEAR OR OVER
THE FORECAST AREA. KEPT THE FORECAST DRY GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE AND
LIMITED LOW LEVEL FORCING ALONG THE FRONT. LOWERED HIGHS SUNDAY INTO
THE 50S NORTHEAST OF THE FRONT. THERE WAS MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. FAVOR THE GFS WHICH HAS
BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY THAN THE ECMWF WITH THE BEST CHANCE
FOR RAIN ABOUT TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014
KSBN EXPECTED TO BE CLEAR INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT SOME MVFR BR
POSSIBLE LATE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CROSS OVER TEMPS BEING REACHED.
KFWA REMAINS ON EDGE OF SLOW ERODING STRATUS. MVFR CIGS THIS
AFTERNOON GIVING WAY TO CLEARING SKIES. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW FOG
POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT WITH MOISTENING LOW LEVELS...LIGHT WINDS AND DRY
AIR ALOFT. THIS COULD TURN INTO REDEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS BUT
EXPECTING THE DRY AIR ALOFT TO LIMIT FORMATION TO NEAR SURFACE AND
THUS FOG.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...LASHLEY
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...LASHLEY
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1200 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
...UPDATE TO AVIATION...
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 845 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
UPDATED THE NEAR TERM GRIDS TO BETTER REFLECT WSR-88D TRENDS WITH A
PREFERENCE TO THE HRRR SOLUTION. HIGH BASED SHOWERS AROUND THE REGION
IN RESPONSE TO 305 KELVIN ISENTROPIC LIFT. CLOUDS BASES ARE RELATIVELY
HIGH (8-12KFT), SO EXPECT VERY LITTLE, IF ANY PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATION.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 137 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
TODAY WILL START OUT WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS, AND WITH MILD SOUTH
WINDS AROUND 12 TO 14 MPH. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS HEADING TOWARD
SOUTHWEST KANSAS FROM THE WEST. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE
INTRODUCED IN THE WEST BY 17Z, WITH POPS MOVING EAST THROUGH THE
DAY. THERE DOES NOT SEEM TO BE ENOUGH CAPE OR BULK SHEAR TO
WARRANT ANY SEVERE STORMS. THE HIGHEST POP CHANCES WILL BE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON, RANGING FROM 45 TO 54 PERCENT IN OUR EASTERN
ZONES. I RAN THE QPF_FM_POP TOOL, AND THEN INCREASED QPF IN OUR
EASTERN TIER OF COUNTIES TO NEAR 0.10 FROM 00Z TO 06Z, TO BETTER
MATCH UP WITH OUR EASTERN NEIGHBORS.
THIS WAVE IS RATHER FAST MOVING, AND THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
END IN THE WEST BY 00Z, AND ACROSS MY EASTERN ZONES BY 12Z THURSDAY.
WINDS WILL PICK UP BY NOON TODAY AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH,
AND SHOULD BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH GUSTING TO 25
MPH. WINDS WILL THEN RECEDE AFTER THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH PASSES
THIS EVENING, AND RETURN TO A SOUTHEAST DIRECTION AT 10 MPH OR SO.
AS FOR HIGHS TODAY, THEY WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER TO MID 70S IN THE
WEST AROUND SYRACUSE TO THE UPPER 70S IN THE SOUTHEAST NEAR MEDICINE
LODGE.
TONIGHT SHOULD START CLEARING OUT FAIRLY EARLY ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN
KANSAS. WITH WINDS GOING LIGHT AND WITH THE FRESH PRECIP ON THE
GROUND, THERE COULD BE SOME RATHER THICK FOG FORM TOWARDS MORNING.
FOR NOW, HAVE PLACED AREAS OF 1/2 MILE VISIBILITIES DUE TO FOG IN
OUR NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AFTER 09Z. JUST HOW FAR SOUTH THE
NEAR-DENSE FOG WILL DEVELOP IS UP FOR QUESTION. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WERE NOT CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, AND
SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S RANGE.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD AND SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE
PLAINS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS
SHOULD SUPPRESS ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FROM FORMING OVER WESTERN
KANSAS WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION DURING THIS PERIOD AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
SITS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES
OUT OF THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND INTO THE PLAINS. THIS FEATURE
WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
UPPER 70S WITH LOW TO MID 80S EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND.
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF WEST CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE UPPER 40S WILL BE POSSIBLE. COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS MONDAY AROUND 70 DEGREES AND
HIGHS IN THE 60 ON TUESDAY. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 40
DEGREES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
CIGS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE VFR. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. MODELS SHOWING THAT KHYS IS MOST LIKELY TO BE
AN IMPACTED TERMINAL WITH THIS ACTIVITY. LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS FOR KGCK/KHYS
AND WITH MVFR AT KDDC TOMORROW MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH BR AND REDUCED
VIS. NOT TOTALLY CONFIDENT ON THE AREAL EXTENT ACROSS THE TERMINALS
FOR THIS TAF ISSUANCE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 75 52 77 54 / 50 40 0 0
GCK 76 49 77 50 / 30 20 0 0
EHA 74 49 79 52 / 20 10 0 0
LBL 74 52 79 52 / 40 20 0 0
HYS 75 51 74 52 / 60 40 0 0
P28 79 56 80 55 / 40 40 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SUGDEN
SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...SUGDEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
852 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
...UPDATE FOR MESOSCALE TRENDS...
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 845 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
UPDATED THE NEAR TERM GRIDS TO BETTER REFLECT WSR-88D TRENDS WITH A
PREFERENCE TO THE HRRR SOLUTION. HIGH BASED SHOWERS AROUND THE REGION
IN RESPONSE TO 305 KELVIN ISENTROPIC LIFT. CLOUDS BASES ARE RELATIVELY
HIGH (8-12KFT), SO EXPECT VERY LITTLE, IF ANY PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATION.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 137 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
TODAY WILL START OUT WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS, AND WITH MILD SOUTH
WINDS AROUND 12 TO 14 MPH. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS HEADING TOWARD
SOUTHWEST KANSAS FROM THE WEST. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE
INTRODUCED IN THE WEST BY 17Z, WITH POPS MOVING EAST THROUGH THE
DAY. THERE DOES NOT SEEM TO BE ENOUGH CAPE OR BULK SHEAR TO
WARRANT ANY SEVERE STORMS. THE HIGHEST POP CHANCES WILL BE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON, RANGING FROM 45 TO 54 PERCENT IN OUR EASTERN
ZONES. I RAN THE QPF_FM_POP TOOL, AND THEN INCREASED QPF IN OUR
EASTERN TIER OF COUNTIES TO NEAR 0.10 FROM 00Z TO 06Z, TO BETTER
MATCH UP WITH OUR EASTERN NEIGHBORS.
THIS WAVE IS RATHER FAST MOVING, AND THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
END IN THE WEST BY 00Z, AND ACROSS MY EASTERN ZONES BY 12Z THURSDAY.
WINDS WILL PICK UP BY NOON TODAY AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH,
AND SHOULD BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH GUSTING TO 25
MPH. WINDS WILL THEN RECEDE AFTER THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH PASSES
THIS EVENING, AND RETURN TO A SOUTHEAST DIRECTION AT 10 MPH OR SO.
AS FOR HIGHS TODAY, THEY WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER TO MID 70S IN THE
WEST AROUND SYRACUSE TO THE UPPER 70S IN THE SOUTHEAST NEAR MEDICINE
LODGE.
TONIGHT SHOULD START CLEARING OUT FAIRLY EARLY ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN
KANSAS. WITH WINDS GOING LIGHT AND WITH THE FRESH PRECIP ON THE
GROUND, THERE COULD BE SOME RATHER THICK FOG FORM TOWARDS MORNING.
FOR NOW, HAVE PLACED AREAS OF 1/2 MILE VISIBILITIES DUE TO FOG IN
OUR NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AFTER 09Z. JUST HOW FAR SOUTH THE
NEAR-DENSE FOG WILL DEVELOP IS UP FOR QUESTION. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WERE NOT CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, AND
SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S RANGE.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD AND SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE
PLAINS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS
SHOULD SUPPRESS ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FROM FORMING OVER WESTERN
KANSAS WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION DURING THIS PERIOD AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
SITS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES
OUT OF THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND INTO THE PLAINS. THIS FEATURE
WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
UPPER 70S WITH LOW TO MID 80S EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND.
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF WEST CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE UPPER 40S WILL BE POSSIBLE. COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS MONDAY AROUND 70 DEGREES AND
HIGHS IN THE 60 ON TUESDAY. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 40
DEGREES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY BUT WITH VFR
CEILINGS. A CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING AND HAVE KEPT THE VCTS IN THE TAFS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE FROM THE SOUTH AROUND 10 KNOTS INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KNOTS BY
LATE MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 75 52 77 54 / 50 40 0 0
GCK 76 49 77 50 / 30 20 0 0
EHA 74 49 79 52 / 20 10 0 0
LBL 74 52 79 52 / 40 20 0 0
HYS 75 51 74 52 / 60 40 0 0
P28 79 56 80 55 / 40 40 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SUGDEN
SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
309 AM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 249 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
Current indications are that the mid/upper level trough is exiting
the Rockies this morning as it continues to lift to the east
northeast. A shortwave within the trough was located over Colorado,
and that energy will pass over the area later this evening and
overnight. Ahead the approaching trough mid level warm advection has
begun across far eastern KS as evident from the stratocumulus deck
seen forming on IR. The NAM is the most aggressive with the
isentropic lift, which maximizes near the MO/KS state between
10-14Z. Therefore have kept sprinkles in the forecast for those
locations. Later today high temperatures reach the mid to upper 70s
across the area with the exception of a low 80s in some western
counties.
This evening the trough advances through the central plains, which
will provide the lift needed for a band of showers to progress
across eastern KS. The better frontogenesis appears to stay north of
the area, and indeed the surface reflection associated with this
system may not be that obvious. Forecast amounts are around a
quarter of an inch for most locations. Models are still indicating
weak instability despite the poor lapse rates so isolated thunder
will still be possible. Precip should arrive to north central KS
around 21Z, the Topeka area by 06Z, and be confined to far eastern
KS by 12Z. Soundings show that as the precip ends the lack of any
dry air advection with the persistent southerly flow could lead to
fog and eventually low stratus. At this point it is difficult to pin
down the extent, but have added patchy fog to the forecast across
north central KS where there is a better possibility of clouds
clearing out before 12Z.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 249 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
Thursday, the upper level trough will move across eastern KS during
the morning hours. The lingering showers and perhaps an isolated
elevated thunderstorms will move east into MO during the mid and
late morning hours. The weak front that will move into central KS
will under go frontolysis as a lee trough begins to deepen across
the central high plains. Clouds will decrease across the western
counties through the morning hours and skies should become partly
cloudy into the afternoon hours across the eastern counties of the
CWA. Highs will reach the mid 70s as insolation helps to warm
temperatures through the afternoon hours.
Thursday night through Sunday Night, Summer like temperatures will
occur across the region as an upper level ridge across the western
US builds east across the central and southern plains. Highs Friday
will reach the lower to mid 80s. Highs may cool back to the upper
70s to around 80 on Saturday as weak back door cold front moves
southwest across the CWA early Saturday morning switching winds to
the northeast and east. The next H5 trough will move into the
central Rockies on Sunday. The lee surface trough across high plains
will deepen during the day Sunday and southerly winds across the CWA
will cause temperatures to warm back into the lower to mid 80s
Sunday afternoon.
Monday through Tuesday, the upper level trough across the central
Rockies will move east across the plains. A cold front will pushes
east across the CWA late Monday afternoon. The combination of
ascent ahead of the approaching H5 trough and surface convergence
ahead of the front will cause showers and isolated thunderstorms
to develop across the CWA during the afternoon hours of Monday. These
showers and thunderstorms will continue through Monday night
before ending early Tuesday morning as the H5 trough lifts
northeast towards the mid MS river valley and the cold front
pushes southeast of the CWA. Highs on Monday ahead of the front
should reach the lower to mid 70s. Highs on Tuesday will be closer
to seasonal norms, with highs in the lower to mid 60s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1129 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014
The NAM has seemed to develop the light precip this morning closer
to the MO state line, and since the RAP and HRRR continue to keep
the terminals dry will maintain a dry forecast. Stratocu deck is
just now beginning to form. Most guidance points to this deck
remaining above 3 KFT. So expect VFR conditions to prevail. Upper
trough moves across the area overnight with very limited
instability. There may be enough forcing within the moisture axis
for some light showers, which appear more likely aft 06Z for TOP
and FOE. Will include a TEMPO for -SHRA late in the evening for
MHK.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...Gargan
AVIATION...Wolters
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
1129 PM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014
...AVIATION UPDATE...
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014
At 3 PM this afternoon, water vapor imagery showed much of the
Plains region underneath upper ridging while the shortwave trough
was deepening across Idaho into southern Montana. Gusty southerly
winds at the surface were observed advecting moisture into central
KS as dewpoint temperatures were increasing to near 60 degrees.
Across northeast Kansas, highs were a tad cooler in the middle 70s
while influence from the sfc ridge to our east kept surface air
drier with dewpoints dropping into the lower 40s.
Surface trough deepens over eastern CO this evening inducing an
h85 low level jet to increase around 30 kts. Moisture advects
northeastward into the CWA as dewpoints rise into the 50s
overnight. Mixing between h85 and the surface also increases to
near 10 kts over north central areas where low level stratus
appears more likely as opposed to fog. Weak isentropic lift at the
300K surface seen from the NAM and 4-km WRF models show
development of isolated activity over far eastern KS just before
sunrise. With forcing being particularly weak and saturation being
brief in the morning, decided to mention a few sprinkles being
possible. Otherwise focus turns to the incoming trough Wednesday
afternoon with slight chances of precip mentioned after 18Z.
Timing between short term and mid term guidance shows the optimal
lift arriving in north central areas near 00Z, however could not
rule out scattered showers during the afternoon. Elevated
instability seen in only a few hundred J/KG may result in isolated
thunderstorms.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014
Upper trough continues to move across the forecast area in the early
morning hours on Thursday. Lapse rates and CAPE remain rather weak,
and progressive nature keeps chances for heavy rainfall on the low
side. Have precipitation clearing the area by Noon, but could be a
few hours faster. This keeps overnight lows in the 50s, and highs
still manage to make it back into the lower 70s after the trough
passes.
In terms of sensible weather, Friday through Sunday continue to
bring above normal temperatures with highs in the upper 70s near
80 each day and lows in the 50s. Winds initially vary a bit as low
pressure passes to our north, but come around out of the south by
late Saturday and increase on Sunday afternoon. Flow aloft makes a
shift from a passing upper ridge to an approaching trough with SW
flow over the state.
Timing of the next upper trough still in question, although both GFS
and latest EC bring the next front through on Monday afternoon. EC
had split the energy into northern and southern tracks but now
seems to be coming toward a single more progressive single wave.
Kept lower end rain chances on Monday, which could continue into
Tuesday if system slows a bit as EC suggests. May be cooler across
the NW counties on Monday as trough comes in and cooler on Tuesday
behind the system.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1129 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014
The NAM has seemed to develop the light precip this morning closer
to the MO state line, and since the RAP and HRRR continue to keep
the terminals dry will maintain a dry forecast. Stratocu deck is
just now beginning to form. Most guidance points to this deck
remaining above 3 KFT. So expect VFR conditions to prevail. Upper
trough moves across the area overnight with very limited
instability. There may be enough forcing within the moisture axis
for some light showers, which appear more likely aft 06Z for TOP
and FOE. Will include a TEMPO for -SHRA late in the evening for
MHK.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...Wolters
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
831 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY WHILE SLOWLY TRACKING NORTHEAST OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. COOL AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY...FOLLOWED BY DRIER CONDITIONS AND A
SLOW WARMING TREND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE AS OF 830 AM EDT...ISOLD TSTMS STILL ONGOING ACROSS THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY AND FAR SE VA AS OF 12Z. ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE TO WARRANT MENTION OF ISOLD TSTMS ACROSS THESE
AREAS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE CENTER OF THE CLOSED LOW
SHIFTS EAST AND OFFSHORE. HAVE MADE THAT ADJUSTED TO THE FORECAST.
OTHERWISE...MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS TO SHOW BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS ACROSS INTERIOR AREAS (I-95 CORRIDOR) THROUGH THE
MORNING...THEN SHIFTING FARTHER EAST TO THE EASTERN SHORE THIS
AFTERNOON.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS ~1007 MB SFC LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENING OFF THE SE VA/NE NC COAST...WITH STRONG UPPER
LOW CENTERED OVER WEST CENTRAL VA. AREA OF SHOWERS OVERSPREADING
PIEDMONT EARLY THIS MORNING UNDER THE COLD POOL ALOFT...WITH
ANOTHER AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS PUSHING OFF THE SE
VA/NE NC COAST ASSOCIATED W/ SFC COLD FRONT AND WIND SHIFT
BOUNDARY. LATEST RAP AND SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS CAPE ON THE ORDER
OF 300-500 J/KG AS OF 09Z...SHIFTING OFFSHORE PRIOR TO 12Z SO WILL
MAINTAIN MENTION OF TSTMS ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THAT TIMEFRAME.
OTHERWISE...SHOULD BE TOO STABLE IN LOW LEVELS FOR ANY ADDITIONAL
TSTMS.
LATER TODAY...CLOSED UPPER LOW SLOWLY PUSHES ESE AND SHOULD BE
CENTERED OFFSHORE BY 15-18Z. WILL CARRY LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL
(60-80%) POPS OVER MUCH OF THE CWA THROUGH LATE MORNING AS DEEP
MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE FAVORABLE THROUGH THIS PERIOD (CHC POPS
ACRS SOUTH CENTRAL VA AND INTERIOR NE NC WHERE LESS MOISTURE
RESIDES). AS THE UPPER LOW PIVOTS OFFSHORE...DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION AND HAVE TRENDED POPS DOWN TO 20% OR LESS
OVER SW ZONES...WHILE FAVORABLE LIFT AND MOISTURE PERSIST FARTHER
NORTH AND EAST. WILL MAINTAIN 60-80% POPS OVER THE ERN 1/2 TO 1/3
OF THE CWA THROUGH 20Z. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO BREAK UP FROM THE
SW LATER IN THE AFTN...MAY SEE SOME PEEKS OF SUN ACRS SOUTH
CENTRAL VA BY MID- LATE AFTN BUT OVERALL IT WILL STAY BKN/OVC.
HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPS A FEW MORE DEGREES GIVEN CURRENT READINGS
IN THE LOWER-MID 50S...GENLY NO BETTER THAN THE UPPER 50S TO
AROUND 60 F FOR MOST AREAS...WARMEST AREAS WILL BE OVER THE FAR SOUTH
AND ON THE ERN SHORE WHERE LOWER 60S ARE FORECAST. OTHER FEATURE TO NOTE
WILL BE THE INCREASING NW WINDS BY AFTN AS THE SFC LOW INTENSIFIES
FAIRLY RAPIDLY OFF THE COAST. GUSTS TO 25-35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE
BY LATER AFTN/EVENING (ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST).
THE CLOSED LOW MOVES FARTHER NE TONIGHT. HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS
WILL BE CONFINED TO THE ERN SHORE THIS EVENING...GENLY ONLY 20%-30%
POPS OR LOWER ELSEWHERE AFTER 00Z. DECREASING CLOUDS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED ACROSS INTERIOR VA/NC OVERNIGHT. REMAINING BREEZY TO
WINDY ESP NE SECTIONS. LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 40S ALONG AND WEST OF
I-95 TO THE LOW 50S NEAR THE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT IN BETWEEN SUB 1000 MB SFC
LOW OFF LONG ISLAND AND 1020 MB SFC HIGH OVER THE OH/TN VALLEY.
NAM SOLUTION IS OUTLIER WITH RESPECT TO IT`S LOCATION OF THE SFC
LOW WELL NORTH OF OTHER MODELS ON THU. THUS...NAM WINDS ARE
LIGHTER DUE TO A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT. FAVOR WINDS CLOSER TO A
GFS/ECMWF BLEND...WHICH YIELDS BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WITH
GUSTS TO 35 MPH ACRS THE ERN SHORE...25-30 MPH ELSEWHERE. A
20%-30% POP WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR THE ERN SHORE...DRY ELSEWHERE.
STILL ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A COLD POOL ALOFT FOR
SKIES TO AVG OUT MOSTLY CLOUDY N/E TO PARTLY SUNNY S/W (MAYBE
MOSTLY SUNNY OVER THE FAR SW). HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S/AROUND 60 F
ON THE MD ERN SHORE...TO THE UPPER 60S FOR INTERIOR NE NC AND
SOUTH CENTRAL VA. MOSTLY CLEAR SW TO PARTLY CLOUDY NE THU NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.
LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER NE AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA ON
FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR MAINLY SUNNY CONDS...DIMINISHING WINDS...AND
MILDER TEMPS. HIGH FRIDAY IN THE MID 60S NE TO AROUND 70 F SW.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS WELL TO THE NE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS
UPPER RIDGING EXPANDS EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL US. A WEAK TROUGH
CLIPS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY MOVES OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY. A HIGH AMPLITUDE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
ERN US MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING OFFSHORE BY
MIDWEEK. GIVEN THIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MEDIUM
RANGE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70 SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AND TREND UPWARD INTO THE LOW/MID BY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY (PERHAPS WARMER TUESDAY). LOWS SHOULD AVERAGE
FROM THE LOW/MID 40S NW...TO THE LOW/MID 50S FOR SE COASTAL
LOCATIONS.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LO PRES WILL DEVELOP OFF THE NRN MID ATLC CST THIS MORNG...THEN
WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NE OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND AND CANADIAN MARITIME CSTS TODAY THRU FRI. UPR LVL LO
WILL SWING OVR THE AREA THEN OFF THE CST TODAY INTO THIS
EVENG...BRINGING LWR CIGS (MVFR/POSSIBLY IFR) AND -RA TO THE TAF
SITES. NW OR N WINDS WILL PICK UP LATER THIS MORNG AND REMAIN
RATHER STRONG AND GUSTY INTO TNGT MOST TAF SITES. -RA WILL LAST
THE LONGEST OVR THE LWR MD/VA ERN SHR. BREEZY/WINDY OVR ERN HALF
OF THE REGION THRU THU...AS STRONG LO GRADUALLY MOVES AWAY TO THE
NE. COULD STILL BE SHOWERS OVR LWR MD (SBY) ALSO. HI PRES AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR FRI AND SAT.
&&
.MARINE...
LO PRES WILL FORM OFF THE NRN MID ATLC CST THIS MORNG...THEN WILL
CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND AND
CANADIAN MARITIME CSTS TODAY THRU FRI. NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
20 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO ARND 30 KT THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENG.
THEN...FM THIS EVENG THRU THU AFTN...GUSTS TO ARND 35 KT WILL BE
LIKELY OVR AT LEAST THE CHES BAY ZNS AND ON THE CSTL WTRS FM
FENWICK ISLAND TO CAPE CHARLES LGT. THUS...HAVE ISSUED SCA THIS
MORNING/AFTN RAMPING UP TO A GALE WARNING IN THESE LOCATIONS FOR THIS
EVENG INTO/THRU THU AFTN. OTHRWISE...EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS OVR THE
ENTIRE WTRS FM THIS MORNG INTO EARLY FRI MORNG...AS STRNG LO PRES
IS SLOW TO MOVE AWAY TO THE NE. WITH THE FLOW BEING OFFSHORE FM
THE NW...SEAS WOULD TEND TO STAY CAPPED AT 5-7 FT AND TIDAL
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. N/NW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
NEXT WEEKEND WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT AND SEAS
SUBSIDING.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ633-635>638-
656-658.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
ANZ630>632-634.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
ANZ650-652-654.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...JDM/LKB
SHORT TERM...JDM/LKB
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
814 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY WHILE SLOWLY TRACKING NORTHEAST OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. COOL AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY...FOLLOWED BY DRIER CONDITIONS AND A
SLOW WARMING TREND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS ~1007 MB SFC LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING OFF THE
SE VA/NE NC COAST...WITH STRONG UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER WEST
CENTRAL VA. AREA OF SHOWERS OVERSPREADING PIEDMONT EARLY THIS
MORNING UNDER THE COLD POOL ALOFT...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS PUSHING OFF THE SE VA/NE NC COAST ASSOCIATED W/
SFC COLD FRONT AND WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY. LATEST RAP AND SPC
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 300-500 J/KG AS OF
09Z...SHIFTING OFFSHORE PRIOR TO 12Z SO WILL MAINTAIN MENTION OF
TSTMS ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THAT TIMEFRAME. OTHERWISE...SHOULD
BE TOO STABLE IN LOW LEVELS FOR ANY ADDITIONAL TSTMS.
LATER TODAY...CLOSED UPPER LOW SLOWLY PUSHES ESE AND SHOULD BE
CENTERED OFFSHORE BY 15-18Z. WILL CARRY LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL
(60-80%) POPS OVER MUCH OF THE CWA THROUGH LATE MORNING AS DEEP
MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE FAVORABLE THROUGH THIS PERIOD (CHC POPS
ACRS SOUTH CENTRAL VA AND INTERIOR NE NC WHERE LESS MOISTURE
RESIDES). AS THE UPPER LOW PIVOTS OFFSHORE...DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION AND HAVE TRENDED POPS DOWN TO 20% OR LESS
OVER SW ZONES...WHILE FAVORABLE LIFT AND MOISTURE PERSIST FARTHER
NORTH AND EAST. WILL MAINTAIN 60-80% POPS OVER THE ERN 1/2 TO 1/3
OF THE CWA THROUGH 20Z. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO BREAK UP FROM THE
SW LATER IN THE AFTN...MAY SEE SOME PEEKS OF SUN ACRS SOUTH
CENTRAL VA BY MID- LATE AFTN BUT OVERALL IT WILL STAY BKN/OVC.
HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPS A FEW MORE DEGREES GIVEN CURRENT READINGS
IN THE LOWER-MID 50S...GENLY NO BETTER THAN THE UPPER 50S TO
AROUND 60 F FOR MOST AREAS...WARMEST AREAS WILL BE OVER THE FAR SOUTH
AND ON THE ERN SHORE WHERE LOWER 60S ARE FORECAST. OTHER FEATURE TO NOTE
WILL BE THE INCREASING NW WINDS BY AFTN AS THE SFC LOW INTENSIFIES
FAIRLY RAPIDLY OFF THE COAST. GUSTS TO 25-35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE
BY LATER AFTN/EVENING (ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST).
THE CLOSED LOW MOVES FARTHER NE TONIGHT. HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS
WILL BE CONFINED TO THE ERN SHORE THIS EVENING...GENLY ONLY 20%-30%
POPS OR LOWER ELSEWHERE AFTER 00Z. DECREASING CLOUDS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED ACROSS INTERIOR VA/NC OVERNIGHT. REMAINING BREEZY TO
WINDY ESP NE SECTIONS. LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 40S ALONG AND WEST OF
I-95 TO THE LOW 50S NEAR THE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT IN BETWEEN SUB 1000 MB SFC
LOW OFF LONG ISLAND AND 1020 MB SFC HIGH OVER THE OH/TN VALLEY.
NAM SOLUTION IS OUTLIER WITH RESPECT TO IT`S LOCATION OF THE SFC
LOW WELL NORTH OF OTHER MODELS ON THU. THUS...NAM WINDS ARE
LIGHTER DUE TO A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT. FAVOR WINDS CLOSER TO A
GFS/ECMWF BLEND...WHICH YIELDS BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WITH
GUSTS TO 35 MPH ACRS THE ERN SHORE...25-30 MPH ELSEWHERE. A
20%-30% POP WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR THE ERN SHORE...DRY ELSEWHERE.
STILL ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A COLD POOL ALOFT FOR
SKIES TO AVG OUT MOSTLY CLOUDY N/E TO PARTLY SUNNY S/W (MAYBE
MOSTLY SUNNY OVER THE FAR SW). HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S/AROUND 60 F
ON THE MD ERN SHORE...TO THE UPPER 60S FOR INTERIOR NE NC AND
SOUTH CENTRAL VA. MOSTLY CLEAR SW TO PARTLY CLOUDY NE THU NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.
LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER NE AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA ON
FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR MAINLY SUNNY CONDS...DIMINISHING WINDS...AND
MILDER TEMPS. HIGH FRIDAY IN THE MID 60S NE TO AROUND 70 F SW.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS WELL TO THE NE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS
UPPER RIDGING EXPANDS EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL US. A WEAK TROUGH
CLIPS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY MOVES OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY. A HIGH AMPLITUDE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
ERN US MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING OFFSHORE BY
MIDWEEK. GIVEN THIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MEDIUM
RANGE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70 SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AND TREND UPWARD INTO THE LOW/MID BY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY (PERHAPS WARMER TUESDAY). LOWS SHOULD AVERAGE
FROM THE LOW/MID 40S NW...TO THE LOW/MID 50S FOR SE COASTAL
LOCATIONS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LO PRES WILL DEVELOP OFF THE NRN MID ATLC CST THIS MORNG...THEN
WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NE OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND AND CANADIAN MARITIME CSTS TODAY THRU FRI. UPR LVL LO
WILL SWING OVR THE AREA THEN OFF THE CST TODAY INTO THIS
EVENG...BRINGING LWR CIGS (MVFR/POSSIBLY IFR) AND -RA TO THE TAF
SITES. NW OR N WINDS WILL PICK UP LATER THIS MORNG AND REMAIN
RATHER STRONG AND GUSTY INTO TNGT MOST TAF SITES. -RA WILL LAST
THE LONGEST OVR THE LWR MD/VA ERN SHR. BREEZY/WINDY OVR ERN HALF
OF THE REGION THRU THU...AS STRONG LO GRADUALLY MOVES AWAY TO THE
NE. COULD STILL BE SHOWERS OVR LWR MD (SBY) ALSO. HI PRES AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR FRI AND SAT.
&&
.MARINE...
LO PRES WILL FORM OFF THE NRN MID ATLC CST THIS MORNG...THEN WILL
CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND AND
CANADIAN MARITIME CSTS TODAY THRU FRI. NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
20 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO ARND 30 KT THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENG.
THEN...FM THIS EVENG THRU THU AFTN...GUSTS TO ARND 35 KT WILL BE
LIKELY OVR AT LEAST THE CHES BAY ZNS AND ON THE CSTL WTRS FM
FENWICK ISLAND TO CAPE CHARLES LGT. THUS...HAVE ISSUED SCA THIS
MORNING/AFTN RAMPING UP TO A GALE WARNING IN THESE LOCATIONS FOR THIS
EVENG INTO/THRU THU AFTN. OTHRWISE...EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS OVR THE
ENTIRE WTRS FM THIS AFTN INTO EARLY FRI MORNG...AS STRNG LO PRES
IS SLOW TO MOVE AWAY TO THE NE. WITH THE FLOW BEING OFFSHORE FM
THE NW...SEAS WOULD TEND TO STAY CAPPED AT 5-7 FT AND TIDAL
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. N/NW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
NEXT WEEKEND WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT AND SEAS
SUBSIDING.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ633-635>638-
656-658.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
ANZ630>632-634.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
ANZ650-652-654.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...JDM/LKB
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
559 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY WHILE SLOWLY TRACKING NORTHEAST OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. COOL AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY...FOLLOWED BY DRIER CONDITIONS AND A
SLOW WARMING TREND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS ~1007 MB SFC LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING OFF THE
SE VA/NE NC COAST...WITH STRONG UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER WEST
CENTRAL VA. AREA OF SHOWERS OVERSPREADING PIEDMONT EARLY THIS
MORNING UNDER THE COLD POOL ALOFT...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS PUSHING OFF THE SE VA/NE NC COAST ASSOCIATED W/
SFC COLD FRONT AND WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY. LATEST RAP AND SPC
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 300-500 J/KG AS OF
09Z...SHIFTING OFFSHORE PRIOR TO 12Z SO WILL MAINTAIN MENTION OF
TSTMS ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THAT TIMEFRAME. OTHERWISE...SHOULD
BE TOO STABLE IN LOW LEVELS FOR ANY ADDITIONAL TSTMS.
LATER TODAY...CLOSED UPPER LOW SLOWLY PUSHES ESE AND SHOULD BE
CENTERED OFFSHORE BY 15-18Z. WILL CARRY LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL
(60-80%) POPS OVER MUCH OF THE CWA THROUGH LATE MORNING AS DEEP
MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE FAVORABLE THROUGH THIS PERIOD (CHC POPS
ACRS SOUTH CENTRAL VA AND INTERIOR NE NC WHERE LESS MOISTURE
RESIDES). AS THE UPPER LOW PIVOTS OFFSHORE...DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION AND HAVE TRENDED POPS DOWN TO 20% OR LESS
OVER SW ZONES...WHILE FAVORABLE LIFT AND MOISTURE PERSIST FARTHER
NORTH AND EAST. WILL MAINTAIN 60-80% POPS OVER THE ERN 1/2 TO 1/3
OF THE CWA THROUGH 20Z. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO BREAK UP FROM THE
SW LATER IN THE AFTN...MAY SEE SOME PEEKS OF SUN ACRS SOUTH
CENTRAL VA BY MID- LATE AFTN BUT OVERALL IT WILL STAY BKN/OVC.
HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPS A FEW MORE DEGREES GIVEN CURRENT READINGS
IN THE LOWER-MID 50S...GENLY NO BETTER THAN THE UPPER 50S TO
AROUND 60 F FOR MOST AREAS...WARMEST AREAS WILL BE OVER THE FAR SOUTH
AND ON THE ERN SHORE WHERE LOWER 60S ARE FORECAST. OTHER FEATURE TO NOTE
WILL BE THE INCREASING NW WINDS BY AFTN AS THE SFC LOW INTENSIFIES
FAIRLY RAPIDLY OFF THE COAST. GUSTS TO 25-35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE
BY LATER AFTN/EVENING (ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST).
THE CLOSED LOW MOVES FARTHER NE TONIGHT. HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS
WILL BE CONFINED TO THE ERN SHORE THIS EVENING...GENLY ONLY 20%-30%
POPS OR LOWER ELSEWHERE AFTER 00Z. DECREASING CLOUDS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED ACROSS INTERIOR VA/NC OVERNIGHT. REMAINING BREEZY TO
WINDY ESP NE SECTIONS. LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 40S ALONG AND WEST OF
I-95 TO THE LOW 50S NEAR THE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT IN BETWEEN SUB 1000 MB SFC
LOW OFF LONG ISLAND AND 1020 MB SFC HIGH OVER THE OH/TN VALLEY.
NAM SOLUTION IS OUTLIER WITH RESPECT TO IT`S LOCATION OF THE SFC
LOW WELL NORTH OF OTHER MODELS ON THU. THUS...NAM WINDS ARE
LIGHTER DUE TO A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT. FAVOR WINDS CLOSER TO A
GFS/ECMWF BLEND...WHICH YIELDS BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WITH
GUSTS TO 35 MPH ACRS THE ERN SHORE...25-30 MPH ELSEWHERE. A
20%-30% POP WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR THE ERN SHORE...DRY ELSEWHERE.
STILL ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A COLD POOL ALOFT FOR
SKIES TO AVG OUT MOSTLY CLOUDY N/E TO PARTLY SUNNY S/W (MAYBE
MOSTLY SUNNY OVER THE FAR SW). HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S/AROUND 60 F
ON THE MD ERN SHORE...TO THE UPPER 60S FOR INTERIOR NE NC AND
SOUTH CENTRAL VA. MOSTLY CLEAR SW TO PARTLY CLOUDY NE THU NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.
LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER NE AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA ON
FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR MAINLY SUNNY CONDS...DIMINISHING WINDS...AND
MILDER TEMPS. HIGH FRIDAY IN THE MID 60S NE TO AROUND 70 F SW.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS WELL TO THE NE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS
UPPER RIDGING EXPANDS EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL US. A WEAK TROUGH
CLIPS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY MOVES OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY. A HIGH AMPLITUDE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
ERN US MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING OFFSHORE BY
MIDWEEK. GIVEN THIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MEDIUM
RANGE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70 SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AND TREND UPWARD INTO THE LOW/MID BY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY (PERHAPS WARMER TUESDAY). LOWS SHOULD AVERAGE
FROM THE LOW/MID 40S NW...TO THE LOW/MID 50S FOR SE COASTAL
LOCATIONS.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LO PRES WILL DEVELOP OFF THE NRN MID ATLC CST THIS MORNG...THEN
WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NE OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND AND CANADIAN MARITIME CSTS TODAY THRU FRI. UPR LVL LO
WILL SWING OVR THE AREA THEN OFF THE CST TODAY INTO THIS
EVENG...BRINGING LWR CIGS (MVFR/POSSIBLY IFR) AND -RA TO THE TAF
SITES. NW OR N WINDS WILL PICK UP LATER THIS MORNG AND REMAIN
RATHER STRONG AND GUSTY INTO TNGT MOST TAF SITES. -RA WILL LAST
THE LONGEST OVR THE LWR MD/VA ERN SHR. BREEZY/WINDY OVR ERN HALF
OF THE REGION THRU THU...AS STRONG LO GRADUALLY MOVES AWAY TO THE
NE. COULD STILL BE SHOWERS OVR LWR MD (SBY) ALSO. HI PRES AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR FRI AND SAT.
&&
.MARINE...
LO PRES WILL FORM OFF THE NRN MID ATLC CST THIS MORNG...THEN WILL
CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND AND
CANADIAN MARITIME CSTS TODAY THRU FRI. NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
15 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO ARND 30 KT THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENG.
THEN...FM THIS EVENG THRU THU AFTN...GUSTS TO ARND 35 KT WILL BE
LIKELY OVR AT LEAST THE CHES BAY ZNS AND ON THE CSTL WTRS FM
FENWICK ISLAND TO CAPE CHARLES LGT. THUS...HAVE SCA RAMPING UP TO
A GALE WARNING IN THESE LOCATIONS FOR THIS EVENG INTO/THRU THU
AFTN. OTHRWISE...EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS OVR THE ENTIRE WTRS FM THIS
AFTN INTO EARLY FRI MORNG...AS STRNG LO PRES IS SLOW TO MOVE AWAY
TO THE NE. WITH THE FLOW BEING OFFSHORE FM THE NW...SEAS WOULD
TEND TO STAY CAPPED AT 5-7 FT AND TIDAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
N/NW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH SPEEDS
DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT AND SEAS SUBSIDING.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EDT
FRIDAY FOR ANZ633-635>638-656-658.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
ANZ630>632-634.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
ANZ650-652-654.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...JDM/LKB
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
503 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY WHILE SLOWLY TRACKING NORTHEAST OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. COOL AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY...FOLLOWED BY DRIER CONDITIONS AND A
SLOW WARMING TREND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS ~1008 MB SFC LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING OFF THE SE
VA/NE NC COAST...WITH STRONG UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER WEST CENTRAL
VA. AREA OF SHOWERS OVERSPREADING PIEDMONT EARLY THIS MORNING UNDER
THE COLD POOL ALOFT...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS PUSHING OFF THE SE VA/NE NC COAST ASSOCIATED W/ SFC COLD FRONT
AND WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY. LATEST RAP AND SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS CAPE
ON THE ORDER OF 300-500 J/KG AS OF 07Z...SHIFTING OFFSHORE PRIOR TO
12Z SO WILL MAINTAIN MENTION OF TSTMS ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THAT
TIMEFRAME. OTHERWISE...SHOULD BE TOO STABLE IN LOW LEVELS FOR ANY
ADDITIONAL TSTMS.
LATER TODAY...CLOSED UPPER LOW SLOWLY PUSHES ESE AND SHOULD BE
CENTERED OFFSHORE BY 15-18Z. WILL CARRY LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL
(60-80%) POPS OVER MUCH OF THE CWA THROUGH LATE MORNING AS DEEP
MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE FAVORABLE THROUGH THIS PERIOD (CHC POPS
ACRS SOUTH CENTRAL VA AND INTERIOR NE NC WHERE LESS MOISTURE
RESIDES). AS THE UPPER LOW PIVOTS OFFSHORE...DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION AND SHOULD END MUCH CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE
PRECIP THIS AFTN OVER SOUTH CENTRAL VA AND INTERIOR NE NC...WHILE
FAVORABLE LIFT AND MOISTURE PERSIST OVER NE PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY TO CAT POPS ON THE ERN SHORE THROUGH THE
AFTN...TAPERED TO 20% OR LOWER FROM SW SIDE OF METRO RICHMOND ON
SW. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO BREAK UP HOWEVER...MAY SEE SOME PEEKS
OF SUN ACRS SOUTH CENTRAL VA BY MID-LATE AFTN BUT OVERALL IT WILL
STAY BKN/OVC. FAVOR COOLER END OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS...GENLY NO
BETTER THAN THE LOWER 60S OVER MOST AREAS..RANGING FROM LWR TO MID
60S ACRS THE FAR SOUTH...TO THE UPPER 50S/AROUND 60 F OVER THE
NORTHERN ZONES FROM CAROLINE COUNTY ON WEST. OTHER FEATURE TO
NOTE WILL BE THE INCREASING NW WINDS BY AFTN AS THE SFC LOW
INTENSIFIES FAIRLY RAPIDLY OFF THE COAST. GUSTS TO 25-35 MPH WILL
BE POSSIBLE BY LATER AFTN/EVENING (ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST).
THE CLOSED LOW MOVES FARTHER NE TONIGHT. HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS
WILL BE CONFINED TO THE ERN SHORE THIS EVENING...GENLY ONLY 20%
POPS OR LOWER ELSEWHERE AFTER 00Z. DECREASING CLOUDS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED ACROSS INTERIOR VA/NC OVERNIGHT. REMAINING BREEZY TO
WINDY ESP NE SECTIONS. LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 40S ALONG AND WEST OF
I-95 TO THE LOW 50S NEAR THE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT IN BETWEEN SUB 1000 MB SFC
LOW OFF LONG ISLAND AND 1020 MB SFC HIGH OVER THE OH/TN VALLEY.
EXPECT BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH ACRS THE
ERN SHORE...25-30 MPH ELSEWHERE. A 20% POP WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR
THE ERN SHORE...DRY ELSEWHERE. STILL ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND A COLD POOL ALOFT FOR SKIES TO AVG OUT MOSTLY CLOUDY
N/E TO PARTLY SUNNY S/W (MAYBE MOSTLY SUNNY OVER THE FAR SW).
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S/AROUND 60 F ON THE MD ERN SHORE...TO THE
MID-UPPER 60S SW.
LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER NE AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA ON
FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR MAINLY SUNNY CONDS...DIMINISHING WINDS...AND
MILDER TEMPS. HIGH FRIDAY IN THE MID 60S NE TO AROUND 70 F SW.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS WELL TO THE NE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS
UPPER RIDGING EXPANDS EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL US. A WEAK TROUGH
CLIPS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY MOVES OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY. A HIGH AMPLITUDE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
ERN US MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING OFFSHORE BY
MIDWEEK. GIVEN THIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MEDIUM
RANGE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70 SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AND TREND UPWARD INTO THE LOW/MID BY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY (PERHAPS WARMER TUESDAY). LOWS SHOULD AVERAGE
FROM THE LOW/MID 40S NW...TO THE LOW/MID 50S FOR SE COASTAL
LOCATIONS.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LO PRES WILL DEVELOP OFF THE NRN MID ATLC CST THIS MORNG...THEN
WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NE OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND AND CANADIAN MARITIME CSTS TODAY THRU FRI. UPR LVL LO
WILL SWING OVR THE AREA THEN OFF THE CST TODAY INTO THIS
EVENG...BRINGING LWR CIGS (MVFR/POSSIBLY IFR) AND -RA TO THE TAF
SITES. NW OR N WINDS WILL PICK UP LATER THIS MORNG AND REMAIN
RATHER STRONG AND GUSTY INTO TNGT MOST TAF SITES. -RA WILL LAST
THE LONGEST OVR THE LWR MD/VA ERN SHR. BREEZY/WINDY OVR ERN HALF
OF THE REGION THRU THU...AS STRONG LO GRADUALLY MOVES AWAY TO THE
NE. COULD STILL BE SHOWERS OVR LWR MD (SBY) ALSO. HI PRES AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR FRI AND SAT.
&&
.MARINE...
LO PRES WILL FORM OFF THE NRN MID ATLC CST THIS MORNG...THEN WILL
CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND AND
CANADIAN MARITIME CSTS TODAY THRU FRI. NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
15 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO ARND 30 KT THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENG.
THEN...FM THIS EVENG THRU THU AFTN...GUSTS TO ARND 35 KT WILL BE
LIKELY OVR AT LEAST THE CHES BAY ZNS AND ON THE CSTL WTRS FM
FENWICK ISLAND TO CAPE CHARLES LGT. THUS...HAVE SCA RAMPING UP TO
A GALE WARNING IN THESE LOCATIONS FOR THIS EVENG INTO/THRU THU
AFTN. OTHRWISE...EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS OVR THE ENTIRE WTRS FM THIS
AFTN INTO EARLY FRI MORNG...AS STRNG LO PRES IS SLOW TO MOVE AWAY
TO THE NE. WITH THE FLOW BEING OFFSHORE FM THE NW...SEAS WOULD
TEND TO STAY CAPPED AT 5-7 FT AND TIDAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
N/NW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH SPEEDS
DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT AND SEAS SUBSIDING.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EDT
FRIDAY FOR ANZ633-635>638-656-658.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
ANZ630>632-634.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
ANZ650-652-654.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...JDM/LKB
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
350 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY WHILE SLOWLY TRACKING NORTHEAST OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. COOL AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY...FOLLOWED BY DRIER CONDITIONS AND A
SLOW WARMING TREND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS ~1008 MB SFC LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING OFF THE SE
VA/NE NC COAST...WITH STRONG UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER WEST CENTRAL
VA. AREA OF SHOWERS OVERSPREADING PIEDMONT EARLY THIS MORNING UNDER
THE COLD POOL ALOFT...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS PUSHING OFF THE SE VA/NE NC COAST ASSOCIATED W/ SFC COLD FRONT
AND WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY. LATEST RAP AND SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS CAPE
ON THE ORDER OF 300-500 J/KG AS OF 07Z...SHIFTING OFFSHORE PRIOR TO
12Z SO WILL MAINTAIN MENTION OF TSTMS ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THAT
TIMEFRAME. OTHERWISE...SHOULD BE TOO STABLE IN LOW LEVELS FOR ANY
ADDITIONAL TSTMS.
LATER TODAY...CLOSED UPPER LOW SLOWLY PUSHES ESE AND SHOULD BE
CENTERED OFFSHORE BY 15-18Z. WILL CARRY LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL
(60-80%) POPS OVER MUCH OF THE CWA THROUGH LATE MORNING AS DEEP
MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE FAVORABLE THROUGH THIS PERIOD (CHC POPS
ACRS SOUTH CENTRAL VA AND INTERIOR NE NC WHERE LESS MOISTURE
RESIDES). AS THE UPPER LOW PIVOTS OFFSHORE...DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION AND SHOULD END MUCH CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE
PRECIP THIS AFTN OVER SOUTH CENTRAL VA AND INTERIOR NE NC...WHILE
FAVORABLE LIFT AND MOISTURE PERSIST OVER NE PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY TO CAT POPS ON THE ERN SHORE THROUGH THE
AFTN...TAPERED TO 20% OR LOWER FROM SW SIDE OF METRO RICHMOND ON
SW. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO BREAK UP HOWEVER...MAY SEE SOME PEEKS
OF SUN ACRS SOUTH CENTRAL VA BY MID-LATE AFTN BUT OVERALL IT WILL
STAY BKN/OVC. FAVOR COOLER END OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS...GENLY NO
BETTER THAN THE LOWER 60S OVER MOST AREAS..RANGING FROM LWR TO MID
60S ACRS THE FAR SOUTH...TO THE UPPER 50S/AROUND 60 F OVER THE
NORTHERN ZONES FROM CAROLINE COUNTY ON WEST. OTHER FEATURE TO
NOTE WILL BE THE INCREASING NW WINDS BY AFTN AS THE SFC LOW
INTENSIFIES FAIRLY RAPIDLY OFF THE COAST. GUSTS TO 25-35 MPH WILL
BE POSSIBLE BY LATER AFTN/EVENING (ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST).
THE CLOSED LOW MOVES FARTHER NE TONIGHT. HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS
WILL BE CONFINED TO THE ERN SHORE THIS EVENING...GENLY ONLY 20%
POPS OR LOWER ELSEWHERE AFTER 00Z. DECREASING CLOUDS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED ACROSS INTERIOR VA/NC OVERNIGHT. REMAINING BREEZY TO
WINDY ESP NE SECTIONS. LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 40S ALONG AND WEST OF
I-95 TO THE LOW 50S NEAR THE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT IN BETWEEN SUB 1000 MB SFC
LOW OFF LONG ISLAND AND 1020 MB SFC HIGH OVER THE OH/TN VALLEY.
EXPECT BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH ACRS THE
ERN SHORE...25-30 MPH ELSEWHERE. A 20% POP WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR
THE ERN SHORE...DRY ELSEWHERE. STILL ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND A COLD POOL ALOFT FOR SKIES TO AVG OUT MOSTLY CLOUDY
N/E TO PARTLY SUNNY S/W (MAYBE MOSTLY SUNNY OVER THE FAR SW).
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S/AROUND 60 F ON THE MD ERN SHORE...TO THE
MID-UPPER 60S SW.
LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER NE AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA ON
FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR MAINLY SUNNY CONDS...DIMINISHING WINDS...AND
MILDER TEMPS. HIGH FRIDAY IN THE MID 60S NE TO AROUND 70 F SW.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS WELL TO THE NE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS
UPPER RIDGING EXPANDS EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL US. A WEAK TROUGH
CLIPS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY MOVES OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY. A HIGH AMPLITUDE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
ERN US MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING OFFSHORE BY
MIDWEEK. GIVEN THIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MEDIUM
RANGE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70 SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AND TREND UPWARD INTO THE LOW/MID BY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY (PERHAPS WARMER TUESDAY). LOWS SHOULD AVERAGE
FROM THE LOW/MID 40S NW...TO THE LOW/MID 50S FOR SE COASTAL
LOCATIONS.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LO PRES WILL DEVELOP OFF THE NRN MID ATLC CST THIS MORNG...THEN
WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NE OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND AND CANADIAN MARITIMES CSTS TODAY THRU FRI. UPR LVL LO
WILL SWING OVR THE AREA THEN OFF THE CST TODAY INTO THIS
EVENG...BRINGING LWR CIGS (MVFR/POSSIBLY IFR) AND -RA TO THE TAF
SITES. NW OR N WINDS WILL PICK UP LATER THIS MORNG AND REMAIN
RATHER STRONG AND GUSTY INTO TNGT MOST TAF SITES. -RA WILL LAST
THE LONGEST OVR THE LWR MD/VA ERN SHR. BREEZY/WINDY OVR ERN HALF
OF THE REGION THRU THU...AS STRONG LO GRADUALLY MOVES AWAY TO THE
NE. COULD STILL BE SHOWERS OVR LWR MD (SBY) ALSO. HI PRES AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR FRI AND SAT.
&&
.MARINE...
AS A COLD FRONT AND SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH THE MARINE
AREA...WINDS HAVE INCREASED TEMPORARILY. MWS ISSUED FOR BRIEF
GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS IN THE CHESAPEAKE AND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN
VIRGINIA RIVERS. THESE WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE BEFORE INCREASING ONCE
AGAIN DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT...
WITH LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFYING OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PRODUCE SCA CONDITIONS
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR MOST OF THE AREA AND
CONTINUING INTO AT LEAST THURSDAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST WIND IS
GENERALLY 20-25KT...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT FOR MOST OF THE
MARINE AREA. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR LOW-END GALE CONDITIONS LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING PRIMARILY SUPPORTED BY
THE 21/12Z NAM. AT THIS TIME THE CURRENT SCA WAS MAINTAINED GIVEN
THE POTENTIAL FOR ONLY MARGINAL GALE CONDITIONS...WITH AN ONSET
GENERALLY AT OR BEYOND 24HR FROM 4PM TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO STALL OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH SCA
CONDITIONS LIKELY CONTINUING...ESPECIALLY FOR THE OCEAN. WITH THE
FLOW BEING OFFSHORE FROM THE NW...SEAS WOULD TEND TO STAY CAPPED
AT 5-7 FT AND TIDAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. N/NW FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING TO
10-15KT AND SEAS SUBSIDING.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM EDT
THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>638-650-652-654-656-658.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...JDM/LKB
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...AJZ/LSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
411 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER RIDGE FROM THE THE
SRN MS VALLEY THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES AND AN UPSTREAM TROUGH
FROM SASK INTO THE WRN PLAINS. AT THE SFC...SRLY FLOW WAS INCREASING
THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY WRN UPPER MI AS THE SFC RIDGE SHIFTS OFF
TO THE EAST INTO LOWER MI. VIS LOOP SHOWED SOME PATCHY MID CLOUDS
STREAMING INTO SW UPPER MI WITH CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REST OF THE
CWA.
TONIGHT AND WED...MDLS WERE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT BRINGING THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH INTO TO WRN MN BY 12Z/THU AND WRN UPPER MI BY 00Z/FRI.
EVEN THROUGH THERE MAY SEVERAL SEPARATE SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE
TROUGH...THE MODELS HAVE ALSO TRENDED TOWARD BRINGING ONE OF THE
STRONGER SHRTWVS TOWARD THE CWA. THE MODERATE 700-300MB QVECTOR CONV
ALONG WITH SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE INFLOW (PWAT REACHES AOA 1.0 INCH OR
220 PCT OF NORMAL)WILL BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LIKELY POPS THROUGH THE
AREA BY THU AFTERNOON. THE PCPN MAY BE DELAYED AT THE ONSET AS THE
SFC-800 MB DRY LAYER PERSISTS UNTIL THE STRONGER DYNAMICS ARRIVE
INTO W UPPER MI LATE TONIGHT AND CENTRL UPPER MI BY AROUND 18Z.
RELATIVELY LIGHT QPF OF 0.2 INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED GIVEN THE
MODEST DYNAMICS AND PROGRESSIVE PATTERN.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014
GIVEN THE SIGNIFICANT LOSS OF THE SATELLITE INGEST INTO THE
NUMERICAL MODELS /WITH NESDIS SATELLITE COMMS ISSUES CAUSING MISSING
OR OLD IMAGES ON WEB PAGES/...UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FCST SOLUTIONS
MAY BE HIGHER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS PERIOD. THIS HAS BEEN THE CASE
SINCE THE 22/00Z RUNS. AT THIS TIME...THERE IS NO DETAILS ON WHEN
THE ISSUE WILL BE FIXED.
EXPECT LINGERING SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT THE E PROGRESSION OF
ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN WILL BE LIMITED. A SFC RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER E
LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH LAKE HURON THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. WITH LIGHT
S WINDS AND 850MB TEMPS RISING TO 8-11C...HIGHS ON FRIDAY COULD BE
IN THE LOW 60S OVER THE W HALF OF THE CWA.
THE NEXT SFC LOW OVER OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL CROSS MANITOBA ON FRIDAY...AND N-CENTRAL ONTARIO FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL NEAR THE NE PORTIONS
OF THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT.
AS THE SFC HIGH WILL QUICKLY PUSH IN FROM THE N PLAINS AND MID MS
VALLEY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...AS THE LOW EXITS INTO ONTARIO AND THE
NEW ENGLAND STATES. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. THE
MAIN WEATHER FEATURE WILL BE INCREASING WNW WINDS ON SATURDAY...WITH
GUSTS NEARING 25-35MPH /STRONGEST NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AND ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN/. INCREASED WINDS A BIT EARLIER THAN OUR PREVIOUS
FCST FOR SATURDAY.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN AT THE SFC. FCST MODELS ARE STILL CONSISTENT WITH
AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM S CENTRAL CANADA
THROUGH THE S PLAINS STATES AT 12Z MONDAY TO CROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BEFORE EXITING INTO ONTARIO.
WHETHER OR NOT A SFC TROUGH LINGERS BEHIND THE LOW INTO WEDNESDAY IS
STILL IN QUESTION...LEADING TO A LOW CONFIDENCE FCST STILL FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON ON. NEXT WEDNESDAY IS A COMPLETE TOSS UP...WITH
850MB TEMPS OFF THE 12Z RUNS RANGING FROM -5C TO 3C. WILL ADD A
SMALL MENTION OF SNOW SHOWERS IN N-NW FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. THERE
MAY NOT BE ENOUGH PRECIP IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT...AS A SECONDARY
LOW WRAPS NEARS FROM THE MID MS VALLEY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 147 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014
SOME LINGERING MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY AT KSAW ARE EXPECTED TO GIVE
WAY TO VFR AS DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING CONTINUES.
THEN FOR TONIGHT...SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD EAST TOWARDS
WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING AND WILL BE SCATTERED ACROSS
THAT AREA TONIGHT. KIWD SHOULD HAVE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR
RAIN...BUT KCMX COULD ALSO SEE SOME SHOWERS IN THE AREA. CEILINGS
FOR KIWD/KCMX SHOULD STAY AT VFR AND POTENTIALLY FALL TO MVFR TOWARD
DAYBREAK AND THEN INTO THE MVFR RANGE THU MORNING. INCREASING SRLY
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION OVERNIGHT MAY BRING SOME LOWER CLOUDS
BACK INTO KSAW. HOWEVER..CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH REGARD TO POTENTIAL
FOR LIFR CIGS OR LOWER. SO...MENTIONED CIGS JUST ABOVE IFR.
FINALLY...A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET NOSING INTO FAR WESTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN WILL LEAD TO LLWS AT KIWD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 410 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014
SRLY WINDS WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE DEPARTS THE AREA AND A TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WIND GUSTS
DURING THIS TIME SHOULD STAY AOB 20KTS. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ON FRIDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT SWEEPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
ON FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO
30KTS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION FOR SUNDAY AND DIMINISH WINDS BELOW 20KTS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
125 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM
THE SRN PLAINS THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO NW ONTARIO BETWEEN
TROUGHS OVER THE NW CONUS AND THE ERN GREAT LAKES. AT THE SFC...A
RIDGE EXTENDED FROM JAMES BAY THROUGH NRN ONTARIO TO LAKE SUPERIOR
RESULTING IN NE WINDS INTO UPPER MI. DAYTIME HEATING HAS FINALLY
HELPED DISSIPATE MOST OF THE REMAINING CLOUDS OVER WRN UPPER MI.
HOWEVER...SOME LAKE MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE NEAR THE SHORE
SUPPORTED SOME LINGERING CLOUDS FROM BIG BAY TO MUNISING.
TONIGHT...UNDER CLEAR SKIES...FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH PWAT VALUES DROPPING TO NEAR 0.15
INCH(25 PCT OF NORMAL) WHICH SHOULD DROP MIN TEMPS TOWARD THE LOWER
END OF GUIDANCE. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 20 TO 25 RANGE INLAND AND FROM
THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S CLOSER TO THE GREAT LAKES. WITH THE HIGH
SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST LATE...TEMPS MAY SLOWLY CLIMB LATE OVER THE
FAR WEST AS SRLY WINDS(BNDRY LAYER 15-20 KT) PRODUCE SOME MIXING.
SOME GROUND FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE MAINLY NEAR RIVER VALLEYS/LAKES AND
ESPECIALLY OVER THE S WHERE THE LIGHT SRLY FLOW OFF LAKE MI BRINGS IN
SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
WED...EVEN WITH A STRONG INVERSION...ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND 925 MB
TEMPS NEAR 6C...SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S EAST AND THE LOWER
50S WEST.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014
AT 00Z THURSDAY THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE STUCK UNDER A RIDGE
IN BETWEEN THE STRONG CUT OFF LOW SWINGING N OFF THE ATLANTIC
COAST...AND A TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE N PLAINS AND MANITOBA.
THE CANADIAN/N PLAINS TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS ONTARIO AND LAKE
SUPERIOR ON THURSDAY. JUST HOW THE TROUGH INTERACTS WITH THE CUT OFF
LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND STATES IS STILL IN QUESTION. THE ECMWF IS
QUICKER TO SCOOT THE TROUGH S OF THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY
MORNING...WHILE THE GFS STAYS WITH MORE OF A STEADY ELONGATED TROUGH
SLIDING W-E. THEY ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE IDEA OF RAIN AVERAGING
0.2IN OVER THE W HALF OF UPPER MI LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BEFORE DRYING UP AND EXITING THE AREA.
AFTER ZONAL FLOW FRIDAY...NW FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE CWA FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE 21/00Z ECMWF WAS A BIT FARTHER S AND QUICKER WITH THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE SWINGING IN FROM MANITOBA AND W ONTARIO...INDICATING
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS GLANCING N AREAS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE 12Z GFS AND
ECMWF RUNS ARE A BIT MORE IN LINE. BRISK NW FLOW WILL TAKE HOLD
SATURDAY /40-45KT 850MB LLJ/...WITH 850MB TEMPS FALLING FROM AROUND
6-8C AT DAYBREAK TO 0-5C BY THE END OF THE DAY /COOLEST OFF THE
ECMWF/.
THE NEXT SFC RIDGE WILL BE OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY...IN BETWEEN THE
EXITING LOW OVER HUDSON BAY AND QUEBEC...AND A NEARING LOW
DEVELOPING ACROSS S CENTRAL CANADA AND THE N PLAINS. AT THIS POINT
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHING ACROSS
WI/UPPER MI/LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE 21/00Z ECMWF
EJECTS THE SYSTEM TO THE NE QUICKLY MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY
MORNING...WHILE THE 21/06Z GFS RIDES AN ADDITIONAL LOW UP THE
TROUGH WHICH KEEPS LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY NIGHT OF NEXT WEEK. WHETHER OR NOT THE PROGRESSIVE BUT
DRAMATIC ECMWF SOLUTION PANS OUT IS STILL UNCERTAIN...AS IT WOULD
STRAND A CUT OFF LOW ACROSS THE S PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT THOUGH AT
LEAST MID WEEK. WILL CONTINUE WITH A BLENDED SOLUTION FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...UNTIL WE GET A BETTER VISION OF WHAT MAY HAPPEN
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE 12Z RUN OF THE ECMWF HAS ABANDONED THE CUT OFF
LOW SOLUTION OVER THE S PLAINS...AND LOOKS A BIT MORE LIKE THE
GFS...BUT A LOT WEAKER WITH LESS PRECIP.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014
WITH HI PRES DOMINATING TODAY...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREDOMINATE
AT ALL 3 TAF SITES. THE EXCEPTION WL BE AT SAW EARLY THIS MRNG...
WHEN LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPS FALLING THRU CROSSOVER DEWPT YDAY AFTN WL
ALLOW SOME FOG TO FORM. A SOMEWHAT STRONGER AND DOWNSLOPE S WIND AT
IWD AND CMX WL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AT THOSE SPOTS. ALTHOUGH
THERE WL BE AN INCRS IN MID CLDS THIS EVNG...AND EVEN THE CHANCE FOR
SOME -SHRA AT IWD...IN ADVANCE OF AN APRCHG LO PRES TROF IN MN...
LINGERING NEAR SFC DRY AIR WL ENSURE VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THRU THE
EVNG EVEN IF SOME -SHRA IMPACT IWD. AN INCRSG S WIND ALOFT
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE -SHRA CHANCES MAY BRING SOME MARGINAL LLWS TO
IWD LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS
LESS THAN 20 KTS OVER LK SUPERIOR FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. PASSAGE
OF A TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WILL LEAD TO INCREASING WNW WINDS TO 25 KTS
ON SATURDAY...STRONGEST OVER EAST HALF OF LK SUPERIOR.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
345 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
FAIRLY STOUT SE WINDS OUT THERE TODAY IN RESPONSE TO THE TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A 1028MB HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND A
1002 MB LOW OVER CENTRAL MANITOBA. AT 3 PM...A SFC TROUGH EXTENDED
FROM NEAR DEVILS LAKE SOUTH TO MITCHEL AND DOWN TO THE CENTRAL
NEB/KS BORDER. JUST WEST OF THIS SFC FEATURE THERE IS A NEGATIVELY
TILTED SHORT WAVE THAT HAS A NICE PUSH OF DRY AIR ON WATER VAPOR
MOVING ACROSS THE WRN DAKOTAS. IT IS THIS UPPER WAVE THAT WILL BE
THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF A LINE OF SHOWERS THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD A PRETTY GOOD HANDEL ON THIS
PRECIP BAND...WITH THE MAIN CHANGE TODAY BEING TO SHRINK THE WIDTH
OF THE BAND OF CATEGORICAL POPS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. THIS MEANT
SLOWING DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIP BY A COUPLE OF HOURS...WHILE
SPEEDING UP FURTHER ITS DEPARTURE FROM WEST TO EAST THRU THU
MORNING. DID REMOVE THE THUNDER MENTION AS WELL AS BEST LI/S ARE
PEGGED TO BE BARELY BELOW ZERO...WITH SPC SREF CALIBRATED
THUNDERSTORM PROBS LOOKING MEAGER AS WELL. A FEW FOLKS WILL
UNDOUBTEDLY HEAR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO...BUT WOULD RATHER NOT
SPREAD THUNDER WORDING ACROSS A LARGE CHUNK OF THE AREA TO COVER A
FEW FLASHES OF LIGHTNING. LESS CONVECTION ALSO MEANS LOWER RAINFALL
RATES...SO DID CUT BACK ON QPF AMOUNTS SOME...WITH AMOUNTS ACROSS
THE AREA NOW GENERALLY A TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH.
WE WILL SEE PRETTY AGGRESSIVE CLEARING BEHIND THE RAIN BAND
TONIGHT...SO WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP ON EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO
DEVELOP. WINDS WILL GO LIGHT...BUT NOT COMPLETELY CALM...SO THIS MAY
HELP LIMIT THE FOG DEVELOPMENT. AT THE MOMENT...THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR FOG LOOKS TO EXIST FROM MANKATO UP THROUGH ST. CLOUD
GIVEN EXPECTED TIMING OF THE CLEARING AND THE PLACEMENT OF THE SFC
TROUGH LATE TONIGHT. AFTER THAT...A BEAUTIFUL THURSDAY WILL UNFOLD
AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF TONIGHTS SHORTWAVE WILL HELP
CLEAR THE SKIES OUT. WILL SEE WRLY WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND TONIGHTS SFC
TROUGH AS WELL...WITH A NICE CHINOOK WIND EXPECTED ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS. FAVORED HIGHS THURSDAY TOWARD THE BIAS CORRECTED
GUIDANCE...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S OUT AROUND
MADISON...WITH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 20 DEGREES COOLER OVER TOWARD
LADYSMITH...WHERE MORE CLOUD COVER INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WILL
HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
TWO SIGNIFICANT CHGS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. FIRST...DUE TO THE
SLOWER MODEL SOLUTION OF THE NORTHEASTERN STORM SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS SUNDAY ARE MORE LIKELY VS. THE
EXPECTED 70 DEGREE HIGH PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THUS...DUE TO THE
SLOWER SOLUTION...A STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
SATURDAY WILL HOLD BACK THE COLDER AIR ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. IN
ADDITION...MORNING LOWS SUNDAY AROUND 40 WILL HOLD DOWN AFTN TEMPS
AS CLDS BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE S/SW. THE SECOND CHG IS RELATED
TO THE PHASING OF THE SOUTHERN/NORTHERN JETS WHICH LEADS TO
PRECIPITATION CHC/S ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES
OUT OF THE ROCKIES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ONE OF THE MAIN WX INFLUENCES OVER THE NEXT WEEK IS THE CONSISTENT
FAST/PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. THE MOST ACTIVE WX WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST AND PACIFIC NW/NORTHERN ROCKIES. IN BETWEEN...PROBLEMS
EXIST DUE TO THE PHASING OF THE UPPER JETS. WILL REMAIN OPTIMISTIC
WITH A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION TO THE
UNSETTLED PATTERN...TEMPS WILL LIKELY DROP TO NEAR NORMAL AS THE
MAIN UPPER JET CORE AND THICKNESS VALUES LOWER ACROSS THE NORTHERN
U.S. LATEST GFS STILL HAS A POTENT WX SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AROUND HALLOWEEN. THICKNESS VALUES AND ASSOCIATED WET-BULB
MEAN LAYER /1KM/ TEMPS ARE NEAR 0 TO +2C...LEADING TO SOME
PRECIPITATION TYPE PROBLEMS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 140 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
MAIN CONCERN FOR 18Z TAFS WAS TIMING SHOWERS IN THIS EVENING.
TIMED THINGS IN BASED ON THE HRRR AND OTHER HI-RES MODELS...WHICH
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER. TRIED NARROWING SHRA
WINDOW DOWN TO 3 OR 4 HOURS...WITH ONLY CHANGE IN TIMING BEING TO
SLOW DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF SHRA BY A COUPLE OF HOURS. WE WILL LIKELY
SEE ISO THUNDER WITH THE BAND OF SHRA...AS WE HAVE SEEN ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS TODAY...BUT COVERAGE/DURATION NOT EXPECTED TO BE ENOUGH
TO MENTION IN A TAF FOR NOW. MVFR CIGS WILL BEGIN TO EXPAND WITH
THE RAIN SHOWERS...WITH THE HRRR SHOWING CIGS COMING DOWN TO
BETWEEN 012 AND 020 WITH THE RAIN. SKIES WILL BE CLEARING OUT
PRETTY QUICK FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...WITH WINDS BACKING OFF
CONSIDERABLY. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG WEST
OF THE TWIN CITIES...WITH STC LOOKING TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF
FOGGING IN THU MORNING.
KMSP...
IF ANYTHING...CURRENT TAF IS AN HOUR OR SO TO FAST WITH BRINGING
PRECIP IN THIS EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE SHRA IMPACTING
MSP TONIGHT...BUT LESS CONFIDENCE ON THE MVFR CIGS. MVFR CIGS MOST
LIKELY WITHIN THE RAIN BAND...BUT LESS CONFIDENCE IN IF THOSE CIGS
WILL CONTINUE FOR A TIME INTO THE EARLY MORNING WHEN THE RAIN
ENDS. AFTER THAT...NO WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE REST OF THURSDAY.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WINDS SSW AT 5-10KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS NW AT 10-15KTS.
SUN...CHC MVFR/-SHRA OVERNIGHT. WINDS SE AT 10-15KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...MPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
202 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A NICE CIRCULATION
CURRENTLY MOVING NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN FROM
NORTHERN MONTANA. COUPLING THIS IMAGE WITH RAP ANALYZED 500H
INDICATES THE PRESENCE OF A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
THIS FEATURE HAS PRODUCED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT
ACROSS COLORADO...WESTERN NEBRASKA...WYOMING...MONTANA...AND
EXTREME WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE IN A
GENERAL ENE DIRECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WILL BRING RAINFALL
TO MOST OF THE CWA.
THIS MORNING...HI-RES GUIDANCE HAD BEEN INDICATING AN AREA OF
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY THIS MORNING
AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH. THE HOPWRF STILL INDICATES THIS
POTENTIAL...AS DO THE NMM AND ARW. THE HRRR HOWEVER...DROPPED THIS
IDEA FROM ITS EARLIER RUNS AND MAY BE ON TO SOMETHING GIVEN THE
LATEST RADAR TRENDS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. STILL...KEPT A LOW POP
MENTION FROM WESTERN MN AND NORTH AND WEST OF ST. CLOUD THROUGH
THE MORNING.
THE MAIN PRECIPITATION BAND WILL COME TOGETHER OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS ACROSS THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS AS A CONTINUATION OF THE ACTIVITY
SEEN OVERNIGHT IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS OF CO/WY/NE. AS WE
HEAD INTO THE AFTERNOON...UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE THANKS TO AN
ENHANCED FLOW AT JET LEVEL TO THE NORTHWEST WILL BE SUPERIMPOSED
WITH THE VORT MAX AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IN THE LOW LEVELS
ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. SATURATION WILL NOT BE A PROBLEM...BUT
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE
EXPANDING PRECIP BAND COULD LIMIT QPF TO THE NORTH.
HI-RES MODELS AGREE THAT THE NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTED PRECIP BAND
WILL BE PROGRESSING EAST ACROSS WESTERN MN THIS EVENING. SIMULATED
REFLECTIVITY FROM THESE MODELS SUGGEST LIMITED RETURNS NORTH OF
ABOUT MANKATO. THIS LINES UP WELL WITH THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE
NEGATIVE BEST LI`S WHICH WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS SOUTH OF ABOUT
MANKATO TONIGHT. HENCE...ISOLATED THUNDER REMAINS IN THE FORECAST
FOR THIS AREA...WHILE MORE STRATIFORM SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO THE
NORTH. IN GENERAL...A RANGE OF 0.15-0.35" IS NOW IN THE FORECAST
WITH THE MAXIMA BEING IN FAR SOUTHERN MN WHERE LIMITED INSTABILITY
MAY ENHANCE RAINFALL RATES.
GLOBAL MODELS AND HI-RES MODELS ALIKE AGREED THAT THE PRECIP BAND
LOOKS TO MOVE OUT A BIT QUICKER ON THURSDAY. SO...DROPPED THE POPS
FASTER FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY TOMORROW THROUGH MID-MORNING. NOW
EXPECTING THE ENTIRE FA TO BE DRY BY LATE MORNING AND BEYOND.
OTHERWISE...TODAY WILL SEE STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SYSTEM. INCREASED WINDS A FEW KNOTS AND HENCE THE
INCREASED HIGHS FOR TODAY SAW A SLIGHT INCREASE AS WELL.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
SHARP UPR LVL TROF WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE E THU EVE WHILE AN UPR
TROF BUILDS OVER THE NRN PLAINS. THE SFC PRES PATTERN WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY BAGGY...GENERALLY WITH LITTLE DEFINITION TO IT. THAT
SAID...A PRONOUNCED S-SW FLOW WILL DEVELOP AT THE SFC STARTING
FRI AND LAST INTO THE WEEKEND. A WEAK SFC CDFNT FRONT...BUT MORE
LIKELY A SFC TROF...WILL SWING THRU THE REGION FRI BUT BE OF
LITTLE CONSEQUENCE ASIDE FROM A SMALL INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
FOLLOWING THE CLEARING BEHIND THE DEPARTING AFOREMENTIONED TROF.
THE DEPARTURE OF THIS TROF WILL SPELL LARGE-SCALE RIDGING OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS...SPREADING NWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS AND UPR MISS
RIVER VALLEY. THE INCRS IN H5 HEIGHTS WILL ALLOW FOR NOTICEABLE
WARMING FOR THE WEEKEND...INCLUDING HIGHS REACHING AND POSSIBLY
ECLIPSING THE 70-DEGREE MARK. THIS WARM-UP LOOKS TO LAST FOR JUST
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AS THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN AND SHIFT EWD LATE
SUN INTO MON IN ADVANCE OF A MORE ORGANIZED STORM SYSTEM FOR THE
START OF NEXT WEEK. THOUGH THERE IS DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE
FORMATION OF A STORM SYSTEM IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES MONDAY...
SHIFTING NEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY TUE...THERE IS SOME MODEL
DISAGREEMENT AS TO THE PLACEMENT AND SPEED OF THE SYSTEM. HAVE
INCLUDED POPS BUT NO HIGHER THAN 30-40 PERCENT ATTM. THERE IS ALSO
GROWING CONFIDENCE THAT FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A COOLING OF
TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN TO SEASONABLE LEVELS FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION
OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 140 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
MAIN CONCERN FOR 18Z TAFS WAS TIMING SHOWERS IN THIS EVENING.
TIMED THINGS IN BASED ON THE HRRR AND OTHER HI-RES MODELS...WHICH
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER. TRIED NARROWING SHRA
WINDOW DOWN TO 3 OR 4 HOURS...WITH ONLY CHANGE IN TIMING BEING TO
SLOW DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF SHRA BY A COUPLE OF HOURS. WE WILL LIKELY
SEE ISO THUNDER WITH THE BAND OF SHRA...AS WE HAVE SEEN ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS TODAY...BUT COVERAGE/DURATION NOT EXPECTED TO BE ENOUGH
TO MENTION IN A TAF FOR NOW. MVFR CIGS WILL BEGIN TO EXPAND WITH
THE RAIN SHOWERS...WITH THE HRRR SHOWING CIGS COMING DOWN TO
BETWEEN 012 AND 020 WITH THE RAIN. SKIES WILL BE CLEARING OUT
PRETTY QUICK FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...WITH WINDS BACKING OFF
CONSIDERABLY. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG WEST
OF THE TWIN CITIES...WITH STC LOOKING TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF
FOGGING IN THU MORNING.
KMSP...
IF ANYTHING...CURRENT TAF IS AN HOUR OR SO TO FAST WITH BRINGING
PRECIP IN THIS EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE SHRA IMPACTING
MSP TONIGHT...BUT LESS CONFIDENCE ON THE MVFR CIGS. MVFR CIGS MOST
LIKELY WITHIN THE RAIN BAND...BUT LESS CONFIDENCE IN IF THOSE CIGS
WILL CONTINUE FOR A TIME INTO THE EARLY MORNING WHEN THE RAIN
ENDS. AFTER THAT...NO WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE REST OF THURSDAY.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WINDS SSW AT 5-10KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS NW AT 10-15KTS.
SUN...CHC MVFR/-SHRA OVERNIGHT. WINDS SE AT 10-15KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...MPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
1230 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1022 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
BAND OF ACCAS EVIDENT ON SAT IMAGERY FROM JUST SOUTH OF KPWC TO
SRN PART OF STATE...ADVECTING EAST. RAP13 SHOWS THIS ARE ALIGNED
WELL WITH 85H DEWPOINT AXIS OF 8C/10C. 88D KMPX SHOWS A LINE OF
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS
DIMINISHED. NO LTG STRIKES ATTM AND A SPRINKLE OR TWO HAS OCCURRED
WITHIN THIS CLOUD BAND. LATEST FCST RAP13 AND HRRR SIM REFLECTIVITY
PRODUCT INDICATES A FEW SPRINKLES MAY OCCUR WITH THIS AREA AS IT
TRANSLATES EAST TODAY. 85H 10C DEWPOINT AXIS DOES EXTEND RAPIDLY
NORTH TO INCLUDE ALL OF WRN CWA BY 18Z...AND WRN/CTRL CWA BY 21Z.
FCST UNSTABLE LOW/MID LVL LAPSE RATES REMAIN SOUTH OF CWA TODAY SO
HAVE REMOVED THUNDER MENTION WITH SOME SLIGHT INTREPIDATION.
OTHERWISE ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER BASED ON
MORNING 925 TEMPS/ADVECTION....AND INCREASED GUSTS BASED ON VALUES
ALREADY IN EXCESS OF 25 MPH IN WRN CWA. OTHERWISE MAIN PRECIP
EVENT STILL FCST TO SWEEP OVER AREA TONIGHT/EARLY THUR MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED AROUND THE COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH
RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW WEAK ISOLATED T-STORMS OVER NE
MN...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL
LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHLAND MOST OF TONIGHT AND EARLY THUR
MORNING. WILL ALSO HIGHLIGHT THE GUSTY S/SE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY AND
EVEN WARMER CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY.
UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE MID MS VALLEY REGION N/NEWD INTO
NRN QUEBEC THIS MORNING IS BEING SQUEEZED BY A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND THE NEXT INCOMING S/W ROLLING IN ACROSS
THE NRN FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES. AT THE SFC AN INVERTED RIDGE
FROM ERN QUEBEC EXTENDING BACK INTO THE WRN OHIO VALLEY REGION IS
DRAGGING EWD SLOWLY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...AND ALLOWING THE NEXT
SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE WEST TO INCREASE THE PRES GRADIENT OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST. A STRENGTHENING PRES GRADIENT TODAY COMBINED
WITH BL MIXING WILL PRODUCE SUSTAINED S/SE WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15
MPH...AND GUSTS UP TO OR EXCEEDING 20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. THE AIR
MASS PRECEDING THE FROPA WILL ATTEMPT TO BECOME UNSTABLE WITH
MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 100 J/KG AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES IN THE
AFTERNOON. INCREASING MOISTURE ON THE NOSE OF MODEST MOISTURE
TRANSPORT FROM THE SOUTH WILL ALLOW CONDITIONS TO BECOME FAVORABLE
FOR A FEW WEAK STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES TONIGHT...THE BROAD LARGE SCALE
LIFT AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE TO SUPPORT
MORE ORGANIZED SHOWERS. HOWEVER THE INSTABILITY WILL REALLY FALL
OFF AND HINDER ANY POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER. SO...WILL CONTINUE WITH
LIKELY RAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT ALONG THE FRONT WITH CONDITIONS DRYING
OUT QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT THUR MORNING. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS
LINGER AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR THUR AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...HIGH
PRESSURE WITH RIDGING ALOFT BEGINS TO TAKE HOLD LATER IN THE DAY
THUR.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL WARM INTO UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S ACROSS
THE ARROWHEAD...AND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S OVER AREAS TO THE
WEST AND SOUTH. THIS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY FOR
MOST AREAS. CLOUDY SKIES WILL KEEP TEMPS MILD TONIGHT...ONLY
FALLING INTO THE 40S. ON THURSDAY...SKIES WILL CLEAR TO THE WEST
AND ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. AREAS TO
THE EAST WILL RISE ANOTHER COUPLE DEGREES INTO THE LOWER TO MID
50S.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
A SERIES OF FAST MOVING SHORT WAVES WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A VORT MAX WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS FRIDAY...MAINLY TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA.
HOWEVER...THE DRY AIR MAS IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT ANY PRECIPITATION. A
MORE ORGANIZED WAVE WILL DROP OVER THE LAKE SUPERIOR REGION
SATURDAY...BUT AT THIS TIME THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE EAST OF THE CWA. SMALL POPS MAY BE NEEDED
IN THE TIP OF THE MN ARROWHEAD SAT IF THE TRACK OF THE LOW TRENDS
ANY FURTHER WEST. LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A H85
RIDGE AXIS MOVES INTO WESTERN MN SATURDAY AFTN...GRADUALLY SHIFTING
EAST OVER WISCONSIN SUNDAY...KEEPING THE NORTHLAND DRY AND MOSTLY
SUNNY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE SOME LOW
CLOUDS/DRIZZLE THAT MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE WESTERN TIP AND NORTH
SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES AND THE MARINE WINDS BECOME ONSHORE.
HOWEVER...HAVE KEPT POPS OUT SUNDAY AT THIS TIME AS ANTICIPATE A
SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE MOISTURE AND HIGHER DEW POINTS TO SUPPORT
SATURATING THE LOW LEVELS UNTIL THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING A RETURN TO WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS
THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE. ALTHOUGH
MODELS DIFFER IN TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THE WAVE THIS FAR OUT...THE
LATEST GFS/ECM ARE SUGGESTING CONVECTION DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE H50
TROUGH...ALONG A SFC BOUNDARY POSITIONED IN THE NORTHLAND VICINITY
MONDAY. AT THIS TIME HAVE CONTINUED TO CARRY SMALL POPS THROUGH THE
SUNDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY TIME FRAME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
TERMINALS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. GUSTY SFC WINDS AHEAD
OF THE BOUNDARY WITH VFR. AS THE BOUNDARY PASSES...SHOWERS WILL
OCCUR BUT TIMING AND OVERALL COVERAGE IN QUESTION AND MADE FEW
CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. LLWS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE
TERMINALS BETWEEN 01Z AND 09Z AS LLJ PASSES AHEAD OF THE FRONT. IN
THE VCNTY OF SHOWERS...VFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE FORECAST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 54 46 60 44 / 20 70 20 10
INL 58 47 61 39 / 50 70 10 0
BRD 58 47 65 40 / 40 70 10 0
HYR 56 45 55 41 / 20 70 50 10
ASX 57 45 55 42 / 20 70 60 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CANNON
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GSF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS DULUTH MN
1037 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1022 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
BAND OF ACCAS EVIDENT ON SAT IMAGERY FROM JUST SOUTH OF KPWC TO
SRN PART OF STATE...ADVECTING EAST. RAP13 SHOWS THIS ARE ALIGNED
WELL WITH 85H DEWPOINT AXIS OF 8C/10C. 88D KMPX SHOWS A LINE OF
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS
DIMINISHED. NO LTG STRIKES ATTM AND A SPRINKLE OR TWO HAS OCCURED
WITHIN THIS CLOUD BAND. LATEST FCST RAP13 AND HRRR SIM REFLECTIVITY
PRODUCT INDICATES A FEW SPRINKLES MAY OCCUR WITH THIS AREA AS IT
TRANSLATES EAST TODAY. 85H 10C DEWPOINT AXIS DOES EXTEND RAPIDLY
NORTH TO INCLUDE ALL OF WRN CWA BY 18Z...AND WRN/CTRL CWA BY 21Z.
FCST UNSTABLE LOW/MID LVL LAPSE RATES REMAIN SOUTH OF CWA TODAY SO
HAVE REMOVED THUNDER MENTION WITH SOME SLIGHT INTREPIDATION.
OTHERWISE ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER BASED ON
MORNING 925 TEMPS/ADVECTION....AND INCREASED GUSTS BASED ON VALUES
ALREADY IN EXCESS OF 25 MPH IN WRN CWA. OTHERWISE MAIN PRECIP
EVENT STILL FCST TO SWEEP OVER AREA TONIGHT/EARLY THUR MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED AROUND THE COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH
RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW WEAK ISOLATED T-STORMS OVER NE
MN...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL
LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHLAND MOST OF TONIGHT AND EARLY THUR
MORNING. WILL ALSO HIGHLIGHT THE GUSTY S/SE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY AND
EVEN WARMER CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY.
UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE MID MS VALLEY REGION N/NEWD INTO
NRN QUEBEC THIS MORNING IS BEING SQUEEZED BY A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND THE NEXT INCOMING S/W ROLLING IN ACROSS
THE NRN FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES. AT THE SFC AN INVERTED RIDGE
FROM ERN QUEBEC EXTENDING BACK INTO THE WRN OHIO VALLEY REGION IS
DRAGGING EWD SLOWLY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...AND ALLOWING THE NEXT
SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE WEST TO INCREASE THE PRES GRADIENT OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST. A STRENGTHENING PRES GRADIENT TODAY COMBINED
WITH BL MIXING WILL PRODUCE SUSTAINED S/SE WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15
MPH...AND GUSTS UP TO OR EXCEEDING 20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. THE AIR
MASS PRECEDING THE FROPA WILL ATTEMPT TO BECOME UNSTABLE WITH
MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 100 J/KG AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES IN THE
AFTERNOON. INCREASING MOISTURE ON THE NOSE OF MODEST MOISTURE
TRANSPORT FROM THE SOUTH WILL ALLOW CONDITIONS TO BECOME FAVORABLE
FOR A FEW WEAK STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES TONIGHT...THE BROAD LARGE SCALE
LIFT AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE TO SUPPORT
MORE ORGANIZED SHOWERS. HOWEVER THE INSTABILITY WILL REALLY FALL
OFF AND HINDER ANY POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER. SO...WILL CONTINUE WITH
LIKELY RAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT ALONG THE FRONT WITH CONDITIONS DRYING
OUT QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT THUR MORNING. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS
LINGER AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR THUR AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...HIGH
PRESSURE WITH RIDGING ALOFT BEGINS TO TAKE HOLD LATER IN THE DAY
THUR.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL WARM INTO UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S ACROSS
THE ARROWHEAD...AND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S OVER AREAS TO THE
WEST AND SOUTH. THIS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY FOR
MOST AREAS. CLOUDY SKIES WILL KEEP TEMPS MILD TONIGHT...ONLY
FALLING INTO THE 40S. ON THURSDAY...SKIES WILL CLEAR TO THE WEST
AND ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. AREAS TO
THE EAST WILL RISE ANOTHER COUPLE DEGREES INTO THE LOWER TO MID
50S.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
A SERIES OF FAST MOVING SHORT WAVES WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A VORT MAX WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS FRIDAY...MAINLY TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA.
HOWEVER...THE DRY AIR MAS IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT ANY PRECIPITATION. A
MORE ORGANIZED WAVE WILL DROP OVER THE LAKE SUPERIOR REGION
SATURDAY...BUT AT THIS TIME THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE EAST OF THE CWA. SMALL POPS MAY BE NEEDED
IN THE TIP OF THE MN ARROWHEAD SAT IF THE TRACK OF THE LOW TRENDS
ANY FURTHER WEST. LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A H85
RIDGE AXIS MOVES INTO WESTERN MN SATURDAY AFTRN...GRADUALLY SHIFTING
EAST OVER WISCONSIN SUNDAY...KEEPING THE NORTHLAND DRY AND MOSTLY
SUNNY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE SOME LOW
CLOUDS/DRIZZLE THAT MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE WESTERN TIP AND NORTH
SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES AND THE MARINE WINDS BECOME ONSHORE.
HOWEVER...HAVE KEPT POPS OUT SUNDAY AT THIS TIME AS ANTICIPATE A
SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE MOISTURE AND HIGHER DEW POINTS TO SUPPORT
SATURATING THE LOW LEVELS UNTIL THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING A RETURN TO WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS
THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE. ALTHOUGH
MODELS DIFFER IN TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THE WAVE THIS FAR OUT...THE
LATEST GFS/ECM ARE SUGGESTING CONVECTION DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE H50
TROUGH...ALONG A SFC BOUNDARY POSITIONED IN THE NORTHLAND VICINITY
MONDAY. AT THIS TIME HAVE CONTINUED TO CARRY SMALL POPS THROUGH THE
SUNDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY TIME FRAME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 655 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
DISCUSSION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL THROUGH THE DAY. AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT WILL BRING DECREASING CLOUDS AND RAIN OVERNIGHT. EXPECT
MVFR CIGS AND RAIN TO MOVE INTO THE KINL TO KBRD AREAS AROUND
00Z...SPREADING EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR
CONDITIONS AND RAIN AFTER 06-08Z.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 54 46 60 44 / 20 70 20 10
INL 58 47 61 39 / 50 70 10 0
BRD 58 47 65 40 / 40 70 10 0
HYR 56 45 55 41 / 20 70 50 10
ASX 57 45 55 42 / 20 70 60 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CANNON
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GRANING
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
628 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A NICE CIRCULATION
CURRENTLY MOVING NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN FROM
NORTHERN MONTANA. COUPLING THIS IMAGE WITH RAP ANALYZED 500H
INDICATES THE PRESENCE OF A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
THIS FEATURE HAS PRODUCED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT
ACROSS COLORADO...WESTERN NEBRASKA...WYOMING...MONTANA...AND
EXTREME WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE IN A
GENERAL ENE DIRECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WILL BRING RAINFALL
TO MOST OF THE CWA.
THIS MORNING...HI-RES GUIDANCE HAD BEEN INDICATING AN AREA OF
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY THIS MORNING
AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH. THE HOPWRF STILL INDICATES THIS
POTENTIAL...AS DO THE NMM AND ARW. THE HRRR HOWEVER...DROPPED THIS
IDEA FROM ITS EARLIER RUNS AND MAY BE ON TO SOMETHING GIVEN THE
LATEST RADAR TRENDS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. STILL...KEPT A LOW POP
MENTION FROM WESTERN MN AND NORTH AND WEST OF ST. CLOUD THROUGH
THE MORNING.
THE MAIN PRECIPITATION BAND WILL COME TOGETHER OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS ACROSS THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS AS A CONTINUATION OF THE ACTIVITY
SEEN OVERNIGHT IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS OF CO/WY/NE. AS WE
HEAD INTO THE AFTERNOON...UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE THANKS TO AN
ENHANCED FLOW AT JET LEVEL TO THE NORTHWEST WILL BE SUPERIMPOSED
WITH THE VORT MAX AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IN THE LOW LEVELS
ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. SATURATION WILL NOT BE A PROBLEM...BUT
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE
EXPANDING PRECIP BAND COULD LIMIT QPF TO THE NORTH.
HI-RES MODELS AGREE THAT THE NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTED PRECIP BAND
WILL BE PROGRESSING EAST ACROSS WESTERN MN THIS EVENING. SIMULATED
REFLECTIVITY FROM THESE MODELS SUGGEST LIMITED RETURNS NORTH OF
ABOUT MANKATO. THIS LINES UP WELL WITH THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE
NEGATIVE BEST LI`S WHICH WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS SOUTH OF ABOUT
MANKATO TONIGHT. HENCE...ISOLATED THUNDER REMAINS IN THE FORECAST
FOR THIS AREA...WHILE MORE STRATIFORM SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO THE
NORTH. IN GENERAL...A RANGE OF 0.15-0.35" IS NOW IN THE FORECAST
WITH THE MAXIMA BEING IN FAR SOUTHERN MN WHERE LIMITED INSTABILITY
MAY ENHANCE RAINFALL RATES.
GLOBAL MODELS AND HI-RES MODELS ALIKE AGREED THAT THE PRECIP BAND
LOOKS TO MOVE OUT A BIT QUICKER ON THURSDAY. SO...DROPPED THE POPS
FASTER FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY TOMORROW THROUGH MID-MORNING. NOW
EXPECTING THE ENTIRE FA TO BE DRY BY LATE MORNING AND BEYOND.
OTHERWISE...TODAY WILL SEE STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SYSTEM. INCREASED WINDS A FEW KNOTS AND HENCE THE
INCREASED HIGHS FOR TODAY SAW A SLIGHT INCREASE AS WELL.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
SHARP UPR LVL TROF WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE E THU EVE WHILE AN UPR
TROF BUILDS OVER THE NRN PLAINS. THE SFC PRES PATTERN WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY BAGGY...GENERALLY WITH LITTLE DEFINITION TO IT. THAT
SAID...A PRONOUNCED S-SW FLOW WILL DEVELOP AT THE SFC STARTING
FRI AND LAST INTO THE WEEKEND. A WEAK SFC CDFNT FRONT...BUT MORE
LIKELY A SFC TROF...WILL SWING THRU THE REGION FRI BUT BE OF
LITTLE CONSEQUENCE ASIDE FROM A SMALL INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
FOLLOWING THE CLEARING BEHIND THE DEPARTING AFOREMENTIONED TROF.
THE DEPARTURE OF THIS TROF WILL SPELL LARGE-SCALE RIDGING OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS...SPREADING NWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS AND UPR MISS
RIVER VALLEY. THE INCRS IN H5 HEIGHTS WILL ALLOW FOR NOTICEABLE
WARMING FOR THE WEEKEND...INCLUDING HIGHS REACHING AND POSSIBLY
ECLIPSING THE 70-DEGREE MARK. THIS WARM-UP LOOKS TO LAST FOR JUST
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AS THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN AND SHIFT EWD LATE
SUN INTO MON IN ADVANCE OF A MORE ORGANIZED STORM SYSTEM FOR THE
START OF NEXT WEEK. THOUGH THERE IS DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE
FORMATION OF A STORM SYSTEM IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES MONDAY...
SHIFTING NEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY TUE...THERE IS SOME MODEL
DISAGREEMENT AS TO THE PLACEMENT AND SPEED OF THE SYSTEM. HAVE
INCLUDED POPS BUT NO HIGHER THAN 30-40 PERCENT ATTM. THERE IS ALSO
GROWING CONFIDENCE THAT FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A COOLING OF
TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN TO SEASONABLE LEVELS FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION
OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1053 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014
ACTIVE PERIOD AHEAD WITH RAIN DEVELOPING TO THE WEST TODAY AND
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE FA THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. MVFR LIKELY
WITH IFR POSSIBLE...BUT NOT INDICATED IN THE TAFS AT THIS POINT. PREVIOUS
TAFS LOOKED GOOD...MAINLY SOME EDITS WERE MADE TO THE
TIMING OF THE PRECIP WHICH WAS HEAVILY BASED ON AVAILABLE HI-RES
MODEL GUIDANCE. DECENT CONFIDENCE IN TERMS OF THE PRECIP MOVING
THROUGH. ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE WEST THROUGH THE MORING. SPED
UP THE CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. THIS COULD LEAD TO MORE FOG IF THE WIND REMAINS LIGHT
ENOUGH...MAINLY OUR WEST.
KMSP...LITTLE DIFFERENCE FROM MAIN DISCUSSION. CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATE THUNDER TO REMAIN WEST OF MSP THIS MORING.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR WITH MVFR/-SHRA EARLY. WINDS SSE AT 10G20KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS SSW AT 5-10KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS NW AT 5-10KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...RAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
429 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A NICE CIRCULATION
CURRENTLY MOVING NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN FROM
NORTHERN MONTANA. COUPLING THIS IMAGE WITH RAP ANALYZED 500H
INDICATES THE PRESENCE OF A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
THIS FEATURE HAS PRODUCED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT
ACROSS COLORADO...WESTERN NEBRASKA...WYOMING...MONTANA...AND
EXTREME WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE IN A
GENERAL ENE DIRECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WILL BRING RAINFALL
TO MOST OF THE CWA.
THIS MORNING...HI-RES GUIDANCE HAD BEEN INDICATING AN AREA OF
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY THIS MORNING
AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH. THE HOPWRF STILL INDICATES THIS
POTENTIAL...AS DO THE NMM AND ARW. THE HRRR HOWEVER...DROPPED THIS
IDEA FROM ITS EARLIER RUNS AND MAY BE ON TO SOMETHING GIVEN THE
LATEST RADAR TRENDS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. STILL...KEPT A LOW POP
MENTION FROM WESTERN MN AND NORTH AND WEST OF ST. CLOUD THROUGH
THE MORNING.
THE MAIN PRECIPITATION BAND WILL COME TOGETHER OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS ACROSS THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS AS A CONTINUATION OF THE ACTIVITY
SEEN OVERNIGHT IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS OF CO/WY/NE. AS WE
HEAD INTO THE AFTERNOON...UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE THANKS TO AN
ENHANCED FLOW AT JET LEVEL TO THE NORTHWEST WILL BE SUPERIMPOSED
WITH THE VORT MAX AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IN THE LOW LEVELS
ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. SATURATION WILL NOT BE A PROBLEM...BUT
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE
EXPANDING PRECIP BAND COULD LIMIT QPF TO THE NORTH.
HI-RES MODELS AGREE THAT THE NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTED PRECIP BAND
WILL BE PROGRESSING EAST ACROSS WESTERN MN THIS EVENING. SIMULATED
REFLECTIVITY FROM THESE MODELS SUGGEST LIMITED RETURNS NORTH OF
ABOUT MANKATO. THIS LINES UP WELL WITH THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE
NEGATIVE BEST LI`S WHICH WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS SOUTH OF ABOUT
MANKATO TONIGHT. HENCE...ISOLATED THUNDER REMAINS IN THE FORECAST
FOR THIS AREA...WHILE MORE STRATIFORM SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO THE
NORTH. IN GENERAL...A RANGE OF 0.15-0.35" IS NOW IN THE FORECAST
WITH THE MAXIMA BEING IN FAR SOUTHERN MN WHERE LIMITED INSTABILITY
MAY ENHANCE RAINFALL RATES.
GLOBAL MODELS AND HI-RES MODELS ALIKE AGREED THAT THE PRECIP BAND
LOOKS TO MOVE OUT A BIT QUICKER ON THURSDAY. SO...DROPPED THE POPS
FASTER FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY TOMORROW THROUGH MID-MORNING. NOW
EXPECTING THE ENTIRE FA TO BE DRY BY LATE MORNING AND BEYOND.
OTHERWISE...TODAY WILL SEE STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SYSTEM. INCREASED WINDS A FEW KNOTS AND HENCE THE
INCREASED HIGHS FOR TODAY SAW A SLIGHT INCREASE AS WELL.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
SHARP UPR LVL TROF WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE E THU EVE WHILE AN UPR
TROF BUILDS OVER THE NRN PLAINS. THE SFC PRES PATTERN WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY BAGGY...GENERALLY WITH LITTLE DEFINITION TO IT. THAT
SAID...A PRONOUNCED S-SW FLOW WILL DEVELOP AT THE SFC STARTING
FRI AND LAST INTO THE WEEKEND. A WEAK SFC CDFNT FRONT...BUT MORE
LIKELY A SFC TROF...WILL SWING THRU THE REGION FRI BUT BE OF
LITTLE CONSEQUENCE ASIDE FROM A SMALL INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
FOLLOWING THE CLEARING BEHIND THE DEPARTING AFOREMENTIONED TROF.
THE DEPARTURE OF THIS TROF WILL SPELL LARGE-SCALE RIDGING OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS...SPREADING NWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS AND UPR MISS
RIVER VALLEY. THE INCRS IN H5 HEIGHTS WILL ALLOW FOR NOTICEABLE
WARMING FOR THE WEEKEND...INCLUDING HIGHS REACHING AND POSSIBLY
ECLIPSING THE 70-DEGREE MARK. THIS WARM-UP LOOKS TO LAST FOR JUST
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AS THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN AND SHIFT EWD LATE
SUN INTO MON IN ADVANCE OF A MORE ORGANIZED STORM SYSTEM FOR THE
START OF NEXT WEEK. THOUGH THERE IS DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE
FORMATION OF A STORM SYSTEM IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES MONDAY...
SHIFTING NEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY TUE...THERE IS SOME MODEL
DISAGREEMENT AS TO THE PLACEMENT AND SPEED OF THE SYSTEM. HAVE
INCLUDED POPS BUT NO HIGHER THAN 30-40 PERCENT ATTM. THERE IS ALSO
GROWING CONFIDENCE THAT FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A COOLING OF
TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN TO SEASONABLE LEVELS FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION
OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1053 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014
LITTLE HAS CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS SET OF TAFS. ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WILL REACH INTO WEST CENTRAL MN BEFORE DAYBREAK AND
PROGRESS EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL MN DURING THE MORNING.
VCSH REMAINS IN THE KRWF...KAXN AND KSTC TAFS DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS ALSO POSSIBLE. SHOWER CHANCES
INCREASE FOR KAXN AND KRWF BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONT. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR AS THE BAND OF THE
SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH. THE SHOWERS AND LOWER CEILINGS WILL REACH
INTO EASTERN MN DURING THE EVENING AND PASS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WI
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BE STRONGEST
ACROSS WESTERN MN WITH 15G22KTS COMMON. SPEEDS FROM 5 TO 10 KNOTS
FOR THE EASTERN SITES. BREEZY SE WINDS AT ALL TAF SITES ON
WEDNESDAY WITH 15-20 KNOTS GUSTING 20-25 KNOTS.
KMSP...VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE
STILL EXPECTED TO PASS NORTH OF THE AIRFIELD LATE IN THE MORNING.
SHOWERS CHANCES INCREASING WEDNESDAY EVENING ALONG WITH MVFR
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR WITH MVFR/-SHRA EARLY. WINDS SSE AT 10G20KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS SSW AT 5-10KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS NW AT 5-10KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...RAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
353 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 353 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
Late this afternoon an elongated area of showers and isolated
thunderstorms extends from the Dakotas southward into north central
Kansas and further south scattered into central Texas. This
activity is associated with an upper trough propagating through the
northern Plains along with a secondary vorticity maximum in the
southern stream moving into western Oklahoma. Short range models
such as the HRRR and local WRF seemed to be doing a good job with
the timing of the precipitation into the forecast area. Still
expecting rain to spread into the area first in northwest Missouri
later this evening, then gradually across the rest of the forecast
area after midnight.
Upper features and weak surface boundary gradually exit the area
tomorrow bringing an end to the precipitation from west to east. A
few of the model time sections try to hold on to some cloud cover
during the day tomorrow especially over northeast Missouri, however
still anticipating seeing improving conditions in the afternoon
particularly over eastern Kansas and western Missouri.
Air mass behind the surface boundary moving through on Thursday not
significantly different than air mass currently over region so if
clouds can clear would still expect temperatures to rebound to above
seasonal values tomorrow. Significant warming of the lower and
middle layers of the atmosphere is forecast for Thursday night and
Friday. 850hPa temperatures approach +18C by 00Z Saturday in eastern
Kansas and western Missoui and as a result surface temperatures
should warm into the middle and upper 70s on Friday.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 353 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
A very pleasant weekend in store as a broad upper level ridge builds
into the country`s mid-section. This puts the CWA under northwest
flow aloft and surface winds shifting around from more northerly at
the start of the weekend to southeasterly by Sunday. With 850mb
temperatures progged to be in the mid teens, and thermal ridge axis
across the CWA Saturday afternoon, wouldn`t be surprised to see a
few locations reach 80 degrees by mid-afternoon. The upper level
ridge will shift eastward and over the area by Sunday, and allow for
another beautiful fall day with highs reaching the low 80s. However,
these reminiscent summerish days won`t last long given an
approaching trough that will bring another chance for rain and a few
thunderstorms. Southerly winds will help advect higher dewpoints
into the region Sunday and Monday increasing instability across the
region. With 500-1000 J/kg of CAPE forecast, cannot rule out a
rumble or two Monday afternoon ahead of the approaching trough.
Long-range models refuse to come to an agreement on the timing and
southern extent this trough will take. The EC takes a more aggressive
and slower approach by deepening the low as it moves across NM and
the TX panhandle. The GFS is less aggressive and keeps the main
trough across the Northern Plains with flow becoming more zonal by
Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
Main challenge for the 18Z forecast cycle is timing of precipitation into
the TAF sites. In general...prefer the scenario painted by the most
recent HRRR and local WRF run which hold off precipitation until 06z
or later. Should see MVFR conditions linger well into the early morning
hours tomorrow until conditions improve towards the end of the
forecast.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Mitchell
LONG TERM...PMM
AVIATION...Mitchell
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1232 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 357 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
Another nice day is in store for much of the region, despite the
threat of a few sprinkles during the day. Much of the focus for rain
over the next 36 hours will be on the late night through Thursday
hours as a weak front moves through. Satellite imagery shows us a
rather messy amplified pattern across the Nation with a shortwave
ridge residing across the Plains States with its axis just to our
west. A trough is noted shifting through the mountainous west and is
poised to to displace the ridge and bring some stormy weather later
tonight into Thursday as it pushes the weak cold front through our
area.
Weather for today will be rather nice, with pleasant conditions
expected into the evening hours. With the ridge in place expect
temperatures to make another run at highs in the mid 60s to mid 70s
today thanks to continued southeast winds at the surface an a
southwest flow aloft. However, that self same southwest flow aloft
may induce a few clouds today with some marginal support for
sprinkles --weak isentropic lift along the saturated 295K to 300K
surfaces--. Boundary layer moisture will be a little sparse to begin
the day, but as the surface high slides off to the east higher dew
points are expected to advect in ahead of a weak cold front that
will sweep through starting Thursday morning. This will set the
region up for a late night/early morning rain event as the weak
front approaches and then sweeps through. Widespread precipitation
should begin to encroach from the west late this evening, with the
best potential for widespread rain looking to hold off to around and
after midnight. Given the progressive nature of the front, and
precipitable water values only in the 1.4 inch range, heavy flooding
rains are not anticipated. Otherwise, as storms progress east early
Thursday the potential for any severe weather looks nonexistent as
instability looks insufficient to support strong storms, but may be
enough for embedded thunderstorms through the event. Any continuing
stormy activity should exit our area Thursday afternoon.
Conditions in the wake of the weak cold front will be rather nice as
temperatures Thursday are still expected to remain above seasonally
normal values. In fact, temperatures will begin to climb in the
following days as a large ridge slowly shifts east through the
weekend. This will likely push temperatures well into the 70s over
the weekend with dry conditions prevailing.
Next chance at storms, and more seasonal temperatures, will arrive
early next work week as another shortwave trough lifts northeast across
the Plains States. Precipitation chances are a bit low confidence at
this time given the large model discrepancies, but what they do agree
on is cooler temperatures; with readings ranging from highs in the 60s
to low in the 40s. However, this does not currently look to include
temperatures cold enough to induce a frost or freeze, so it`s looking
likely that a killing frost will have to wait till November.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
Main challenge for the 18Z forecast cycle is timing of precipitation into
the TAF sites. In general...prefer the scenario painted by the most
recent HRRR and local WRF run which hold off precipitation until 06z
or later. Should see MVFR conditions linger well into the early morning
hours tomorrow until conditions improve towards the end of the
forecast.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...Mitchell
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GLASGOW MT
845 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014
.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
SENT AN UPDATE TONIGHT TO INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN OVER
OUR WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN ZONES. CANNOT ALSO RULE OUT SOME
ISOLATED SPRINKLES. HRRR MODEL IS BEST AT REPRESENTING REALITY AND
SHOWS REFLECTIVITIES TONIGHT OVER THIS AREA QUICKLY DIMINISHING
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND MOVING OVER OUR NORTHERN ZONES. BMICKELSON
PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...HUGE UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER
THE GULF OF ALASKA SHOT OFF A SHORTWAVE THAT IS MOVING ACROSS CENT
SASK. THE MOISTURE STREAM IS LAYING NE ACROSS MONTANA AND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DROPPING SE AND AT LEAST FILTER THE PARTIAL
ECLIPSE THIS AFTERNOON.
ASSOCIATED JET THEN LIFTS INTO CANADA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WHILE THE
MOISTURE STREAM DRIES. COLD AIR ADVECTION AND MODERATE MID LEVEL
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO MIX FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO BRING LAKE WIND
ADVISORY CONDITIONS...THUS LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED WITH
SPEEDS OF 15 TO 30 EXPECTED.
ON SATURDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH INDUCES A RIDGE OVER MONTANA. COOLER
MORNING TEMPS MEANS THAT TEMPS WILL PROBABLY NOT WARM OVER FRIDAY/S
READINGS. TFJ
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
AFTERNOON UPDATE INCLUDED TRENDING THE POPS UP FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY IN THE WEEK. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A LONG WAVE TROF
WILL BRING IN SOME INSTABILITY BUT THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH
MOISTURE AND HOW FAR NORTH WILL IT COME. THE MODELS ARE HONESTLY
NOT IN REAL GOOD AGREEMENT. HAVE GONE HIGHER THAN NORMAL
CLIMATOLOGY WITH THE POPS ALONG OUR SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA.
SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN BY SUNDAY EVENING WITH A
TROF SOUTH OF IT AND THE FRONT ALONG THE CANADIAN/US BORDER AT 00Z
MONDAY. THE COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH THE STATE ON MONDAY. THAT
COLD FRONT WILL TAKE THE TEMPERATURES TO BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK. FRANSEN
UPPER RIDGE MOVES TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY WITH LIMITED MOISTURE WHICH
STAYS TO THE SOUTH FOR THE MOST PART. UPPER TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY HAS SOMEWHAT MORE MOISTURE WITH IT. WILL MENTION A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY ON MONDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
ALSO BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES.
THE SYSTEM MOVES TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BRING A COOL DRY DAY ON TUESDAY.
GFS AND ECMWF START SHOWING MORE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES STARTING
ON WEDNESDAY. GFS FAVORS A COLDER WETTER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WHILE THE ECMWF FAVORS A WARMER DRIER ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. WILL
MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY AS BOTH MODELS
HAVE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND KEEP THURSDAY DRY FOR NOW. FORRESTER
&&
.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR.
SYNOPSIS: A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE PACIFIC MOISTURE RIDING UP
AND OVER IT CAUSING MID TO HIGH CLOUDINESS FOR THE REGION. WIND
WILL REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT WITH AN INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KTS AFT
18Z FRIDAY.
&&
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR FORT PECK
LAKE FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VALLEY...GARFIELD...MCCONE...PETROLEUM.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
300 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CUTTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING EAST
AS WELL. A SOLID LINE/AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS
MARCHING ACROSS THE CWA...BUT THE TIME FRAME IS LIMITED FOR
PRECIPITATION AS FLOW REMAINS QUITE PROGRESSIVE...HELPING THE COLD
FRONT TO CONTINUE TO SWEEP EAST. SOME SOLUTIONS...SUCH AS THE NAM
AND HRRR...INDICATE AN AREA OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWERS TO
DEVELOP THIS EVENING BEHIND THE CURRENT BAND/BANDS OF RAIN. THIS
WILL DELAY THE EXIT OF PRECIPITATION IN OUR EAST/SOUTHEAST A
BIT...AND COULD LINGER UNTIL ABOUT MIDNIGHT OR SO IN OUR EAST
SOUTHEAST.
A BIG CONCERN IS FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT. BOTH THE SREF AND RAP
INDICATE THAT AT LEAST SOME OF THE CWA IS IN FOR SOME FOG...AS THE
SKY CLEARS AND WIND BECOMES LIGHT BEHIND THE WAVE/COLD FRONT. WITH
MOST AREAS GETTING A DECENT SHOT OF RAIN TODAY...I HAVE DECIDED TO
HIT THE FOG WORDING QUITE A BIT HARDER...WITH AREAS OF FOG AND
PATCHY DENSE FOG WITH VISIBILITY OF HALF MILE OR LESS. WE WILL NEED
TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE HRRR VISIBILITY LATER THIS EVENING. IF THIS
NUMERICAL MODEL HITS THE FOG FAIRLY HARD AS WELL...WE MAY NEED A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY TONIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING.
BEHIND THE TROUGH/COLD FRONT THURSDAY...AIR BEHIND THE FRONT IS
MILD...BUT I DID LOWER THEM A BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...BASED
ON BCCONSRAW...WHICH I TEND TO LIKE THE DAY AFTER A COLD FRONT
PASSAGE.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
ALOFT: THE MEAN RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE CNTRL USA THRU SUN...
UNTIL THE TROF OVER THE E PAC MOVES ONSHORE. THIS TROF WILL MOVE
THRU HERE MON AND WILL BE THE NEXT POTENTIAL WX MAKER. LOW-AMPLITUDE
WNW FLOW ARRIVE IN ITS WAKE TUE-WED.
SURFACE: LOW PRES WILL BE HEADING E ACROSS CANADA. ITS ASSOCIATED
COOL FRONT WILL SLIP THRU HERE FRI NIGHT WITH NRN PLAINS HIGH PRES
BUILDING IN SAT. MEANWHILE THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING ONSHORE IN
THE W. A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FCST ISSUE HERE /SEE BELOW/. THE COOL FRONT
WILL MOVE THRU SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING WITH COOL HIGH PRES TO
FOLLOW TUE-WED.
THE DAILY DETAILS...
FRI: WARM SECTOR. WONDERFULLY WARM WITHIN THE THERMAL RIDGE. THE
WARMEST DAY OF THIS FCST. NO RECORDS THREATENED...BUT AFTERNOON
TEMPS WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF THEM.
SAT: NOT AS WARM...BUT STILL A SOLID 10F WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR LATE
OCT. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN TEMPS. GEM/EC/GFS/NAM 2M TEMPS ARE
SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER THAN MEX MOS /BY 10F/. AND WITH NO ESSENTIALLY
NO CLOUD COVER EXPECTED PER VERTICAL CROSS SECTIONS...AM NOT SURE
WHY. SO THE DIFF WAS SPLIT INCORPORATING THE PREVIOUS FCST WITH A
BIAS CORRECTION WHICH DID NUDGE TEMPS DOWN A LITTLE. ANYWAY YOU
SLICE IT...LIGHT WINDS AND STILL VERY NICE.
SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING: WE MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO MENTION A
CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS AS THE EC/GFS ARE INDICATING A POTENTIAL
INSTABILITY BURST AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT /K-INDEX 30 AND SHOWALTER
INDEX -1/ AS HIGHER 850 MB DEWPOINTS ADVECT BACK IN FROM THE S.
FOR WHAT IT/S WORTH 06Z/12Z GFS ARE OUTPUTTING SOME DRIBBLES OF
LIGHT QPF.
SUN: WE MAY HAVE PROBLEMS WITH TEMPS. THERE COULD BE A LINGERING
BATCH OF MULTI-LAYERED CLOUD COVER. THE POCKETS OF COOLER 850 MB
TEMPS ARE THE HINT. BELIEVE WE MAY BE TOO WARM. MULTI-MODEL 2M TEMPS
SUGGEST WE MAY BE TOO WARM BY AT LEAST 5F.
SUN NIGHT: COOL FRONTAL PASSAGE AND PROBABLY DRY. SOUNDINGS SHOW A
CAP.
MON: BREEZY AND COOLER IN COLD AIR ADVECTION. POSSIBLY A POST-
FRONTAL SHWR OR TWO. TEMPS RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL.
TUE: EVEN COOLER. TEMPS PROBABLY 5F BELOW NORMAL.
ANOTHER POTENTIAL FCST SNAG TUE IS THE 00Z/12Z EC HAVE A MUCH
SHARPER/SHORTER WAVELENGTH TO THE UPPER TROF MOVING THRU. THEY
DIFFER ON LOCATION BUT THIS SUGGESTS A LOW COULD FORM ON THE FRONT S
AND E OF THE FCST AREA.
WED: DRY WITH TEMP RECOVERY TO NEAR NORMAL POSSIBLE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
WIND WILL BE A BIT GUSTY FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED THUNDER WITH THE
APPROACHING SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT. PRECIPITATION
SHOULD CLEAR BY EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...EXCEPT THE
POSSIBILITY OF LOWER VISIBILITY WITH HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS. SOME
REDUCED VISIBILITY IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...BUT SIGNALS ARE NOT
STRONG.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...HEINLEIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
122 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 118 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE
DEFINITE CATEGORY WITHIN THE CORE AXIS OF PRECIPITATION MOVING
EAST...ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING EAST. THE HRRR SEEMS
TO BE HANDLING THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE PRECIPITATION QUITE
WELL...AND IS MY PREFERRED SHORT-TERM NUMERICAL MODEL OUTPUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 438 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
BY FAR THE MAIN ITEM OF INTEREST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS THE
FAIRLY DECENT CHANCE OF AT LEAST BRIEF MEASURABLE RAIN
SHOWERS/EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS PASSING ACROSS THE CWA FROM WEST-
TO-EAST MAINLY FROM MID-MORNING THROUGH MID-EVENING. WHILE THE
ENTIRE CWA STANDS AT LEAST A 50-60 PERCENT CHANCE OF SEEING
RAIN...THE HIGHEST 70-80 PERCENT CHANCES CURRENTLY ADVERTISED
APPEAR TO FOCUS NEAR AND ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 281
CORRIDOR...WHERE THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF REALIZING A GENERAL
0.25-0.50 INCH AND LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS EXISTS. ALTHOUGH RAIN IS
LIKELY IN MOST AREAS...WANT TO EMPHASIZE TWO MAIN POINTS HERE FOR
THE PUBLIC MESSAGE: 1) THIS IS BY NO MEANS AN ALL DAY/ALL EVENING
RAIN- OUT...AS ANY GIVEN LOCATION SHOULD ROUGHLY OBSERVE ONLY A
2-4 HOUR WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIP. 2) FOLLOWING IN LINE
WITH POINT 1 ABOUT THIS NOT BEING AN ALL DAY EVENT...FOLKS FROM
THE TRI- CITIES EASTWARD PROBABLY WONT SEE A SINGLE DROP UNTIL
GENERALLY THE NOON-2PM TIME FRAME...AND THOSE COUNTIES IN THE FAR
EASTERN CWA ALONG HIGHWAY 81 MAY VERY WELL BE WAITING ON RAIN
UNTIL AT LEAST THE 2-4 PM TIME FRAME. ONCE PRECIP MOVES OUT THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT...THE SECONDARY SHORT TERM FORECAST ISSUE INVOLVES
WHETHER OR NOT AT LEAST PATCHY/POTENTIALLY IMPACTFUL FOG MIGHT
FORM LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING IN ITS WAKE.
STARTING WITH THE CURRENT SCENE AS OF 0830Z/330 AM...ALL HAS BEEN
QUIET ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT...AS THE NEAREST RAIN STILL REMAINS
WELL OUT WEST IN THE PANHANDLE. FURTHERMORE...AS SUSPECTED HERE 24
HOURS AGO...DECENT BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AS EVIDENCED BY FAIRLY
STEADY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BREEZES GENERALLY IN THE 7-13 MPH RANGE HAS
APPARENTLY THWARTED ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT WORTH MENTIONING IN THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST (MEANING WIDESPREAD VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 2-3 MILES)...AND THUS THE PATCHY FOG
PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED FOR THIS MORNING HAS BEEN PULLED. ALTHOUGH
THERE ARE STILL A FEW MORE HOURS FOR THINGS TO CHANGE...EVEN A
LOWER STRATUS DECK HAS FAILED TO MATERIALIZE OVER THE LOCAL
AREA...WITH ANY LIMITED SKY COVER AT THIS POINT CONSISTING OF ONLY
THE MID-HIGH VARIETY. AT THE SURFACE...A MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN A GREAT LAKES REGION HIGH AND A TROUGH AXIS/WEAK COLD
FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE NEB PANHANDLE INTO NORTHEAST
CO IS DRIVING THE STEADY SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT BREEZES...WHICH ARE
WORKING TO KEEP TEMPS NOTICEABLY MILDER AND MORE UNIFORM THAN LAST
NIGHT...WITH MOST OF THE CWA ON TRACK TO REALIZE LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE 53-57 RANGE. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVEL PICTURE...WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA CONFIRMS THAT CHANGES
ARE UNDERWAY AS A BROAD RIDGE CONTINUES DEPARTING EAST OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...WHILE THE LEADING EDGES OF SMALL-SCALE
DISTURBANCES ARE STARTING TO ENTER THE FAR WESTERN NEB/KS
AREA...ALTHOUGH WELL TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE PRIMARY PARENT
VORT MAX TRACKING EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EASTERN MT/CANADA
BORDER AREA.
FORECAST WISE...AND STARTING WITH THE INITIAL FEW HOURS THROUGH
14Z/9AM...HAVE LEFT ANY MENTION OF RAIN OUT OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH THE VERY EASTERN EDGES OF A FEW SHOWERS COULD
BE IMPINGING ON THE FAR WESTERN CWA BY THAT TIME. IN THE
MEANTIME...ABOUT THE ONLY ISSUE IS MONITORING WHETHER OR NOT ANY
AT LEAST LOCALIZED AREAS OF LOW STRATUS TRY TO FORM.
GETTING INTO THE HEART OF THE DAYTIME HOURS...AND AS TOUCHED ON AT
THE TOP...RAIN CHANCES WILL SLOWLY BUT SURELY INCREASE ACROSS THE
CWA FROM WEST-TO-EAST. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...THIS IS A FAIRLY
CLASSIC...MODESTLY-STRONGLY FORCED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AS THE
ENTIRE BROAD TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY...ACCOMPANIED
BY AN EASTWARD-ADVANCING CORRIDOR OF MID LEVEL
CONVERGENCE/FRONTOGENESIS AND UPPER JET DIVERGENCE. MEANWHILE AT
THE SURFACE...THE ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY PASS
INTO THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON...AIDING LOW LEVEL FORCING AND HELPING
TO ORGANIZE CONVECTION INTO WHAT WILL LIKELY BE A GRADUALLY
STRENGTHENING LINE OF SHOWERS/FAIRLY WEAK THUNDERSTORMS WITH TIME.
AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL REMAIN BREEZY AND ACTUALLY INCREASED THESE WIND SPEEDS
SOMEWHAT WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS GENERALLY 15+ MPH AND GUSTS AT
LEAST 20-25 MPH. BEHIND THE FRONT...BREEZES WILL BECOME LIGHTER AS
THEY TURN WESTERLY AND EVENTUALLY LIGHT NORTHERLY TO
LIGHT/VARIABLE. AS ALSO PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...THINK THE MAJORITY
OF THE CWA WILL PROBABLY REALIZE RAIN TOTALS NO MORE THAN
0.25-0.50 INCH...ALTHOUGH ANY EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS COULD EASILY
PUSH A FEW SPOTS MAYBE EVEN CLOSER TO 1 INCH...ALTHOUGH THIS WOULD
LIKELY BE A CONSIDERABLE EXCEPTION TO THE NORM. AS FOR
THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY...WHILE CERTAINLY NO SEVERE WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED...THE PRESENCE OF MAYBE UP TO 400-600 J/KG OF MIXED-
LAYER CAPE PER THE 06Z NAM COULD POSSIBLY SUPPORT A FEW CORES WITH
SMALL HAIL ESPECIALLY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. TEMP-WISE...CONFIDENCE
IS NOT OVERLY-HIGH GIVEN THE VARIOUS OFFSETTING FACTORS INCLUDING
INCREASING CLOUDS BUT A RELATIVELY MILD START. ALL THINGS
CONSIDERED THOUGH...OPTED TO NUDGE HIGHS UP 1-3 DEGREES FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST IN MOST PLACES...GENERALLY AIMING FOR UPPER 60S-
LOW 70S WEST TO MAINLY MID 70S EAST.
TURNING TO THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...PER THE PREFERRED LOOK OF
VARIOUS HIGHER-RES MODELS INCLUDING SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY FROM
THE 00Z 4KM WRF-NMM/ARW...BY 00Z/7PM THE VAST MAJORITY OF ONGOING
PRECIP SHOULD BE FOCUSED NEAR/EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 281
CORRIDOR...WITH MOST PLACES FARTHER WEST ALREADY DRYING OUT. AS
THE LARGE SCALE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES ITS
DEPARTURE...THE NARROW ZONE OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL
GRADUALLY DEPART AS WELL...AND BY 03Z/10PM...ONLY PLACES GENERALLY
EAST OF AN OSCEOLA-SUPERIOR-OSBORNE KS LINE CONTINUE TO CARRY A
20+ PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN...AND HAVE ALL MENTIONABLE RAIN CHANCES
WHATSOEVER OUT OF EVEN THE FAR SOUTHEAST CWA BY 08Z/2AM...AND EVEN
THIS MAY BE GENEROUSLY LONG. IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING PRECIP...THE
MAIN QUESTION MARK FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO EARLY THURS
MORNING INVOLVES WHETHER OR NOT AT LEAST LIMITED FOG DEVELOPMENT
COULD BECOME AN ISSUE...WITH THE LATEST NAM12 VISIBILITY PRODUCT
ACTUALLY SUGGESTING THAT FAIRLY LOW VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS COULD
MATERIALIZE. ALTHOUGH NOT A SLAM DUNK FOR FOG FORMATION BY ANY
MEANS (IT RARELY IS)...FELT THE FAVORABLE FACTORS OF CLEARING
SKIES OVER WET GROUND IN THE PRESENCE OF GENERALLY LIGHT/VARIABLE
BREEZES LESS THAN 5 MPH WAS ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY A GENERIC PATCHY FOG
MENTION FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA TO GET THE BALL ROLLING IN
CASE IT ULTIMATELY AMOUNTS TO SOMETHING IMPACTFUL. ONE POSSIBLE
FOG-MITIGATING FACTOR FOR PARTS OF THE CWA COULD BE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A LATE-NIGHT MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK AS SUGGESTED BY
THE 06Z NAM...BUT IN GENERAL EXPECT OVERNIGHT SKIES TO AVERAGE NO
WORSE THAN PARTLY CLOUD BEHIND THE DEPARTING PRIMARY WAVE. MADE
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES...BLENDING VARIOUS
GUIDANCE/MODELS TO YIELD A RANGE FROM NEAR-40 FAR NORTHWEST TO LOW
50S FAR SOUTHEAST.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 438 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY
BEFORE WE SEE A RETURN TO MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE GENERALLY
IN THE LOWER 60S...WHILE HIGHS THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO RISE AT LEAST INTO THE 70S WITH MAYBE EVEN SOME LOWER 80S AROUND
BY FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.
MOST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DRY WITH JUST A LOW END CHANCE
OF RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY ON MONDAY ALONG AND BEHIND A PASSING COLD
FRONT.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THERE WILL BE A WEAK VORT MAX ON
THURSDAY THAT WILL BE TRAILING THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH THAT WILL
HAVE PASSED THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS SECONDARY
VORT MAX ON THURSDAY WILL HAVE LESS FORCING AND LESS MOISTURE TO
WORK WITH AND A VAST MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST MODELS ARE DRY.
HOWEVER...THE 00Z NAM DOES TRY TO INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
VERY WEAK RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS
UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY FEATURE/SUBTLE TROUGH. AM NOT BUYING INTO THE
NAM POSSIBILITY OF RAIN AT THIS POINT IN TIME AND WILL CONTINUE TO
CALL FOR A DRY FORECAST ON THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE IN A DRY FORECAST ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY IS VERY HIGH AS THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE FIRMLY
LOCATED OVER THE AREA BY THAT POINT IN TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL ALL THREE DAYS RISING FROM THE LOWER TO MID 70S ON
THURSDAY TO THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
ADDING TO THE NICE FORECAST FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
SUNDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE EAST INTO THE
EASTERN CONUS...WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE WESTERN CONUS.
THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO WHEN A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL TRACK THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA. FORECAST MODEL RUNS
HAVE GENERALLY SLOWED THE SYSTEM DOWN FROM 24HRS AGO...WHICH WOULD
RESULT IN ANOTHER VERY NICE DAY ON SUNDAY SIMILAR TO SATURDAY...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE LOWER IN THE SUNDAY FORECAST HIGHS GIVEN THE
PROXIMITY OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT AND QUESTIONS ABOUT TIMING OF THAT
FRONT.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...IT APPEARS TO BE A GOOD BET THAT THE COLD FRONT
WILL HAVE TRACKED ACROSS...OR WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA BY MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES THAT ARE 10 TO
15 DEGREES COOLER THAN ON SUNDAY...WHICH WILL ACTUALLY MEAN THAT
HIGHS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL IN THE LOWER 60S FOR MOST
AREAS...ALTHOUGH KANSAS ZONES MAY BE A TOUCH WARMER. THERE WILL BE
SOME CHANCE OF RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
A GREAT CHANCE AT THIS POINT IN TIME AND AMOUNTS ALSO DO NOT
CURRENTLY APPEAR VERY SIGNIFICANT. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE COOL DRY
FORECAST FOR TUESDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
WIND WILL BE A BIT GUSTY FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED THUNDER WITH THE
APPROACHING SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT. PRECIPITATION
SHOULD CLEAR BY EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...EXCEPT THE
POSSIBILITY OF LOWER VISIBILITY WITH HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS. SOME
REDUCED VISIBILITY IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...BUT SIGNALS ARE NOT
STRONG.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HEINLEIN
SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...HEINLEIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
919 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014
.UPDATE...
WILL ADD LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG FOR THE PECOS RIVER VALLEY FROM
FORT SUMNER ON SOUTH AND FOR MOST OF ROOSEVELT COUNTY FOR LATER
TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. BASED THIS ON LATEST HRRR MODEL
RUN SUGGESTING MVR AND LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA, ALSO
ONLY 4 DEGREE TEMPERATURE...DEWPOINT SPREAD CURRENTLY. ZONES OUT
SHORTLY. CHJ
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...538 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CIGS AND VSBY WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE PECOS RIVER VALLEY...INCLUDING KROW...BETWEEN 09Z
AND 15Z TONIGHT. DEWPOINTS HAVE YET TO SCOUR OUT IN THIS REGION...AND
CURRENT HI RES MODELS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR LIFR CIGS/VSBYS...
SIMILARLY TO LAST NIGHT. LOCALIZED FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP IN THE
MORENO VALLEY...NEAR KAXX...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS HIGH IN THIS
LOCATION.
34
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...310 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY PATTERN THROUGH THE NEARLY THE NEXT WEEK AND A HALF...EXCEPTING
ONLY THE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY PERIOD WHEN SOME FORECAST
MODELS INDICATE RATHER LOW CHANCE AND LOW QPF PRECIPITATION ACROSS
SOME PORTION OF NORTH NEW MEXICO AS 2 OR 3 SHORT WAVES RACE EAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WITHIN A BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH. THESE
WAVES WILL ALSO RESULT IN SOME BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS
MAINLY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND SOME DEGREE...AHEM...OF TEMPERATURE
DROP. NEARER TERM AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THEN PASSES EAST OF THE
STATE EXPECT SOME NEAR RECORD TO RECORD AFTERNOON WARMTH...MAINLY
EAST.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
TRANQUIL WX PATTERN FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT 10 DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT BUILDS INTO NM TONIGHT AND FRI...THEN PASSES TO EAST OF THE
STATE SAT AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH CONTAINING SOME SHORT WAVES NEARS.
WITH MOISTURE GETTING EVER MORE SHALLOW EAST OF CENTRAL MTN CHAIN
AS DRY INTRUSION TAKES ITS SWEET TIME SCOURING OUT SAID MOISTURE...
FOG SHOULD BE LESS OF A PROBLEM LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
FRI...COMPARED TO EARLY TODAY...THOUGH WOULD NOT RULE OUT SOME
VERY LOCALIZED FOG PATCHES SE PLAINS AND MORENO VALLEY. OF LITTLE
OVERALL SIGNIFICANT WILL BE A BIT OF HIGH CLOUDINESS WHICH MAY
CROSS NM LATER TONIGHT INTO AT LEAST FRI MORN.
IMPOSING UPPER RIDGE WILL BE DIRECTLY OVER THE STATE FRI WITH H5
PRESSURE HEIGHTS REACHING AT SUMMER LIKE LEVELS. RESULT WILL BE
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WITH ABOVE AVERAGE AFTN TEMPS AREAWIDE AND
AT LEAST A FEW RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGHS...NAMELY IN NE THIRD OR
SO OF THE STATE. FOR THE MOST PART STAYED ON LOW SIDE OF...OR A
BIT BELOW...GUIDANCE AS IT IS LATE OCTOBER AND ALSO LOOKING AT NOT
MUCH OF A WARMING DOWNSLOPE FACTOR. SAT SHOULD BE A NEAR REPEAT
PERFORMANCE TEMPERATURE WISE. MORE HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO FILTER
IN FROM THE W AND SW BETWEEN LATE SAT AND SUN.
AS WINDS ALOFT STRENGTHEN WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH SUN THE
LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS AND STRENGTHENS AS WELL THUS...THE
STRONGER DOWNSLOPING BREEZES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
NORMAL IN THE EAST...A BIT LESS SO WEST. SOME FURTHER STRENGTHENING
GRADIENT AND WINDS ALOFT WILL GIVE WAY TO A TROUGH PASSAGE MON.
FORECAST MODELS ARE IN BETTER THOUGH NOT PERFECT AGREEMENT ON
STRENGTH AND TIMING OF UPPER TROUGH AS IT CROSSES THE STATE.
CANADIAN AND ECMWF ARE SOMEWHAT MORE BULLISH THAN THE GFS ON
RELATIVELY LOW QPF POPS ACROSS NORTH THIRD TO HALF OF NM SUN TO
MON...BUT HAVE KEPT POPS LOWER THAN WHAT THE FORMER TWO MODELS
IMPLY.
43
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER...NOT EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK.
MODELS...IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON NEXT
WEEK...WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN PATTERN TIMING AND FEATURE PLACEMENT
EMERGING FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD. RIDGE CORE SQUARELY OVER NEW MEXICO
WILL PLAY AGAINST INBOUND WEST COAST TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE
EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA TO PACIFIC WATERS WELL OFF THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA COAST. TROUGH WILL DIG TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SWING
ASHORE ON SATURDAY AS RIDGE CORE NUDGES EASTWARD TO THE HEART OF
TEXAS. TROUGH BASE WILL SHEAR EASTWARD RAPIDLY ACROSS NEW MEXICO
WITH TRAILING WAVE SWEEPING INTO WESTERN NEW MEXICO MONDAY MORNING
AND INTO TEXAS BY MONDAY NIGHT. FLOW WILL GRADUALLY SHEAR NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE TROUGH HEADING INTO MIDWEEK. MODELS DIVERGING FROM
WEDNESDAY ONWARD...WITH EUROPEAN COLLEAGUES AT ECMWF BACKING FLOW
ALOFT TO ZONAL ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN TO SOUTHWEST BY THE WEEKEND AS
NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO THE LAKE
TAHOE REGION OF NORTHWEST NEVADA...AND RIDGE CORE BUILDS OVER EAST
TEXAS. PATTERN LEAVES NEW MEXICO IN STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT FROM MIDWEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. DOMESTIC GFS SOLUTION...IN
CONTRAST...DIGS TROUGH RAPIDLY OUT OF OTHERWISE ZONAL FLOW FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS STATES TO THE TEXAS BIG BEND COUNTRY ON
WEDNESDAY...AND ACCELERATES THIS FEATURE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY FRIDAY MORNING...LEAVING NEW MEXICO
UNDER WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...AND FINALLY UNDER A DOMINATING
RIDGE CORE BY THE WEEKEND. ECMWF SOLUTION SEEMS A SMOOTHER AND
EASIER TRANSITION OUT OF MIDWEEK AGREEMENT...WITH GFS SOLUTION
REQUIRING SOME SHARPER AMPLIFICATIONS UP AND DOWNSTREAM IN ORDER TO
GET THE DESIRED EFFECT OVER NEW MEXICO. WILL TILT FORECAST THINKING
TOWARD ECMWF PLAN PENDING BETTER FORECAST AGREEMENT FOR THE LAST
HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.
OVERNIGHT...STEADY TEMPERATURE REGIME OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS.
FOG WILL DEVELOP MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF A RUIDOSO TO TUCUMCARI
LINE OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS.
FOR FRIDAY...RIDGE CORE REMAINING SQUARELY OVER NEW MEXICO...AS DOME
OF HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OVER THE FOUR CORNERS. WARMING TREND
CONTINUING...WITH 10 TO 20 DEGREE WARM EXCURSIONS ABOVE NORMAL OVER
THE EAST AND NORTHEAST. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL RUN IN THE UPPER
TEENS PCT OVER THE NORTH...AND IN THE 20S PCT OVER THE
SOUTH....REFLECTIVE OF A DRYING IN CONCERT WITH THE WARMING.
VENTILATION DEGRADED IN THE WEST...AND ONLY MARGINALLY BETTER IN THE
EAST. FAIR TO GOOD HUMIDITY RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT...WITH EXCELLENT
RECOVERIES OVER THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS UNDER FOGGY CONDITIONS FRIDAY
NIGHT.
FOR SATURDAY...STEADY TEMPERATURES RUNNING 10 TO 20 DEGREES WARMER
THAN NORMAL FOR ANOTHER DAY WITH HUMIDITIES REMAINING IN THE TEENS
NORTH AND 20S SOUTH. VENTILATION IMPROVING TO GOOD TO VERY GOOD
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY WITH SOME INCREASES IN TRANSPORT WINDS AS
RIDGE CORE SLIDES EASTWARD INTO THE HEART OF TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST
WIND SPEEDS PICK UP OVER NEW MEXICO BEHIND THE RIDGE CORE. GENERALLY
LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
FOR SUNDAY...APPROACHING TROUGH WILL SHEAR ACROSS NEW MEXICO WITH
DRAMATIC UP TICK IN WIND SPEEDS ALOFT...AND QUICK TURBULENCE PICKING
UP IN THE FLOW. COOLER PUSH INTO THE NORTH AND WEST WILL WALK THESE
TEMPERATURES BACK FROM RECORD VALUES...WITH LESS CHANGE IN ANOTHER
WARM DAY OVER THE EAST AND SOUTH. PATTERN WILL BRING BOOSTS TO
HUMIDITIES WITH ASSOCIATED MOISTURE BOOST...WITH MOST SPOTS
BOTTOMING IN THE 20S AND UPPER TEENS PCT SUNDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FROM THE
ARIZONA LINE TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...AND ACROSS THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. VENTILATION QUALITY WILL ENJOY ANOTHER BOOST AND
END UP IN THE EXCELLENT CATEGORY WITH STRONG TRANSPORT WINDS AND
CONTINUED ELEVATED MIXING HEIGHTS. TURBULENCE IN FLOW OVERHEAD
SUNDAY NIGHT COMBINED WITH MOISTURE MAY HELP SUPPORT SOME NORTHERN
MOUNTAIN OVERNIGHT SHOWERS...AND SOME SNOW OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY
NEAR THE COLORADO LINE. EXCELLENT HUMIDITY RECOVERIES OVER THE NORTH
AND WEST...WITH GOOD RECOVERY OVER THE SOUTH AND EAST.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SPOTTY SHOWER COVERAGE OVER THE
NORTHERN HIGH COUNTRY MONDAY NIGHT SHIFTING TO THE EAST TUESDAY
BEFORE ENDING TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS PAIR OF SHORTWAVES WORKS THROUGH
RAPIDLY UNDER THE BASE OF A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S.
COOLING TREND TO START THE WEEK WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID
WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW NORMAL BY TUESDAY AND
RECOVERING SLOWLY BACK TOWARD NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY. HUMIDITIES
REMAINING IN THE 20S AND TEENS PCT...WITH DRYING TRENDS SHIFTING OUT
OF THE EAST AND INTO THE WEST THROUGH MIDWEEK. GUSTY FLOW OVERHEAD
WILL SUPPORT GUSTY SURFACE WINDS OVER THE EASTERN FOOTHILLS OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SPEEDS DROPPED OFF
RAPIDLY ON TUESDAY AS COOL PUSH INVADES EASTERN NEW MEXICO FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES AS THE DYNAMIC ACTION ALOFT BARRELS INTO
TEXAS. LOW LEVEL WIND DIRECTIONS SWINGING AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH SOME AFTERNOON BREEZES OVER THE EASTERN FOOTHILLS
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
SHY
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
40
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
315 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OVER NEW
MEXICO OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...BRINGING SPECTACULAR WEATHER
TO THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH A FEW NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COOLER
BY SUNDAY AND WINDS WILL TREND STRONGER AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST OF
THE STATE. COOLER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY
AS A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RACES THROUGH THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
THE LATEST RADAR SHOWS JUST A COUPLE VERY LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING
SOUTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN TO THE PLAINS. 20Z LAPS DATA
INDICATES ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT A FEW STORMS HOWEVER A
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ALOFT IS ACTING TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION BELOW
550MB. THE 18Z NAM12 AND HRRR INDICATE THE BULK OF ANY STORMS WILL
FOCUS OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS AND AROUND SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTY.
OTHERWISE...WHAT FEW CLOUDS EXIST ACROSS CENTRAL/WESTERN NM WILL
DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE EAST WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS HOLDING STRONG.
WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE BENEATH A STRENGTHENING RIDGE ALOFT WILL
FAVOR AREAS OF FOG WITHIN THE PECOS AND ESTANCIA VALLEYS...AS WELL
AS ALONG THE CAPROCK.
THURSDAY WILL FEATURE WARMING TEMPERATURES AS 700MB VALUES RISE
TO NEAR +10C. THIS IS NEAR THE 95TH PERCENTILE FOR LATE OCTOBER.
THE H5 RIDGE THEN CRESTS OVER NM AT 591DM AND DELIVERS A REALLY
SPECTACULAR FRIDAY. 700MB TEMPS PEAK OUT NEAR +12C WHICH IS +2
STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE CLIMO. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR RECORD ACROSS THE
EAST WITH LOTS OF MID 80S. ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS TO STAY
IN PLACE AND LEE TROUGHING REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK SO NOT REALLY
EXPECTING RECORDS. BY SATURDAY THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND WINDS
BEGIN INCREASING IN THE EAST. HIGHS CERTAINLY MAY NEAR 90F IN THE
AREA AROUND TUCUMCARI. ELSEWHERE...IT WILL REMAIN SUNNY AND WARM.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT FROM MODELS WHICH
INDICATES FAST ZONAL FLOW OVER NM. THIS WILL FAVOR CONTINUED WARM
TEMPS OVER THE EAST WITH KATABATIC FLOW. SOME MOUNTAIN WAVE WIND
DRIVEN CIRCULATION MAY CREATE LOCALLY STRONG WINDS ON THE EAST
SLOPES BOTH DAYS. 700MB COLD ADVECTION IN THE WEST WILL COOL HIGHS
DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES. THE DGEX AND ECMWF DO SHOW ENOUGH MID/UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTS FOR A COUPLE HIGH TERRAIN
SHOWERS.
GUYER
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WE WILL BEGIN A DRYING TREND LATE TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOOK
FOR WARMING DAYTIME HIGHS...UP AND DOWN VENTILATION RATES...AND A
DOWNTREND IN HUMIDITY VALUES WITH BREEZY WESTERLIES.
VERY SPOTTY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ALONG THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN BUT WILL DIMINISH DOWNSLOPE TOWARD THE EASTERN PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THE EARLY EVENING. VERY LITTLE WETTING
RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM SPOTTY STORMS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND WILL SHIFT EASTWARD BY FRIDAY
BRINGING US WARMER DAYTIME HIGHS 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...
FOLLOWING A DOWNTREND IN HUMIDITY VALUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
VENTILATION WILL BE POOR ON FRIDAY BUT RATES LOOK TO IMPROVE OVER
THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS EAST. HAINES VALUES WILL
ALSO TREND UPWARD...WITH 5S EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN.
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY AND MONDAY ALONG AND
EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN BECAUSE OF AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES. COULD SEE MARGINALLY
CRITICAL WIND SPEEDS WEST CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY CENTRAL HIGHLANDS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOON...HUMIDITIES LOOK TO STAY A LITTLE ABOVE
CRITICAL CRITERIA AT THIS TIME. A COOLING TREND OF HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH THE STATE.
MODELS DIFFER LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY ABOUT WETTING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. GFS IS DRIER WITH ZONAL FLOW OVER THE STATE WHILE ECMWF IS
BULLISH ON PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST AS A REMAINING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXITS THE STATE.
32/43
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AT KROW WILL GRADUALLY BECOME VFR AFTER
19Z. OTHERWISE VFR ELSEWHERE. A FEW AFTN ISOLATED STORMS COULD
DEVELOP ALONG THE MTNS BUT WILL DIMINISH DOWN SLOPE TOWARD THE
EASTERN PLAINS. LOW CONFIDENCE OF VCSH OR VCTS FOR SITES BUT WILL
AMEND IF NECESSARY. AREAS NEAR KROW WILL SEE POTENTIAL FOR FG AFTER
06Z WITH EVEN LOWER POTENTIAL OF MVFR/IFR CIGS.
32/43
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 42 73 42 76 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 33 70 32 73 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 39 71 38 74 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 36 73 36 76 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 35 70 34 72 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 37 72 35 75 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 41 70 40 73 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 40 78 41 79 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 31 67 30 69 / 5 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 45 68 46 72 / 5 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 42 67 42 71 / 5 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 35 69 34 72 / 5 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 33 59 34 63 / 10 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 30 64 31 69 / 10 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 35 69 32 73 / 5 0 0 0
MORA............................ 40 68 40 73 / 5 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 45 73 44 78 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 44 68 44 72 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 44 72 43 76 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 49 72 50 75 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 50 74 50 77 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 48 75 45 78 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 49 76 48 79 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 43 75 42 77 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 49 76 48 79 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 46 78 46 79 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 45 73 47 75 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 46 73 49 75 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 38 74 38 76 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 43 71 44 74 / 5 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 45 70 45 73 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 45 74 46 76 / 5 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 44 71 46 73 / 5 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 43 70 45 76 / 10 0 0 0
RATON........................... 40 74 40 78 / 5 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 38 74 38 80 / 5 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 41 73 41 76 / 5 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 49 76 51 82 / 10 0 0 0
ROY............................. 45 74 45 78 / 5 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 50 81 49 83 / 5 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 50 79 49 83 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 51 82 50 85 / 5 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 51 78 51 82 / 10 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 51 79 51 82 / 10 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 51 80 50 82 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 51 79 50 82 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 47 76 48 78 / 5 0 0 0
ELK............................. 46 71 47 73 / 5 0 0 0
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1157 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AT KROW WILL GRADUALLY BECOME VFR AFTER
19Z. OTHERWISE VFR ELSEWHERE. A FEW AFTN ISOLATED STORMS COULD
DEVELOP ALONG THE MTNS BUT WILL DIMINISH DOWN SLOPE TOWARD THE
EASTERN PLAINS. LOW CONFIDENCE OF VCSH OR VCTS FOR SITES BUT WILL
ADMEND IF NECESSARY. AREAS NEAR KROW WILL SEE POTENTIAL FOR FG AFTER
06Z WITH EVEN LOWER POTENTIAL OF MVFR/IFR CIGS.
32/43
.PREV DISCUSSION...1036 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014...
.UPDATE...
LOWERED POPS AND SKY COVER FOR MUCH OF WESTERN NM FOR THE REMAINDER
OF TODAY. FOCUSED GREATEST CHANCES ALONG EAST SLOPES OF SACRAMENTO
MTS TO THE TEXAS STATE LINE. 12Z RAOB AT FLAGSTAFF INDICATED DRIER
AIR AND RIDGING ADVECTING INTO OUR REGION TODAY...WHILE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE STILL HOLDS STRONG. LATEST HRRR AND NAM12 SOLUTIONS SHOW
SPRINKLE TYPE ACTIVITY FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM. EVEN IF ANY
SHOWERS DO POP AROUND CENTRAL MTS THEY ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
VERY LITTLE QPF. BEST SHOT AT WETTING RAINFALL WILL BE OVER THE FAR
SOUTHEAST.
GUYER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...330 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
THE LAST IN A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS WILL MOVE
THROUGH EASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH PASSAGE THIS MORNING BEFORE A DRIER MORE STABLE
AIRMASS MOVES IN DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY...A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN
AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. A DRY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH WESTERN NEW MEXICO SUNDAY AND
THROUGH EASTERN AREAS SUNDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP TEMPERATURES
DOWN 10-15F MONDAY THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK...NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR LATE OCTOBER.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVING THROUGH EASTERN NM EARLY THIS
MORNING. DRIER AIR ALOFT ALREADY WORKING INTO WRN NM AND WITH
MODERATE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE...NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
TODAY. A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AS SURFACE HEATING
WILL BE STRONGER THAN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS BUT THEY`LL HAVE TO
FIGHT THE DRY AIR ALOFT AND A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.
ADDITIONALLY...A TRAILING SHORT- WAVE/SPEED MAX IN THE DEVELOPING NW
FLOW ALOFT OVER FAR NE NM MAY HELP GET A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS GOING OVER THE FAR NE HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS THIS
EVENING. AREAS OF FOG LIKELY IN THE MORENO VALLEY AND ESTANCIA
BASIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNINGS AS INCREASING TEMPERATURES ALOFT CREATE
VERY STRONG TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS.
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THE RULE ON THURSDAY AS A STRONG
SUBTROPICAL HIGH INCHES NEWD FROM SRN AZ. THIS STRONG DOME OF HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT IS PROGGED TO MOVE SMACK DAB OVER CENTRAL NM FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECTING A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL
FLIRT WITH NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT
SATURDAY APPEARS TO BE THE WARMER DAY AS SWLY BREEZES DUE TO A
STRENGTHENING LEE SFC TROUGH RESULT IN DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS. EXPECT A FEW
LOCATIONS FROM CLAYTON SOUTH TO TUCUMCARI...CLOVIS/PORTALES AND
ROSWELL COULD REACH OR EXCEED THEIR RECORD HIGHS FOR THE DATE.
SWLY FLOW ALOFT OVER NM TRANSITIONS TO WLY ON SUNDAY. GFS AND
ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SEWD
THROUGH WRN AND CENTRAL NM SUNDAY...BRINGING A COOL DOWN OF ABOUT
5-8 DEGREES MOST AREAS WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER/COLDER AIR IS EXPECTED SUNDAY
NIGHT...COOLING TEMPERATURES FURTHER. MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE COMING
MORE IN LINE WITH REGARD THE THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT TIME-FRAME...KEEPING IT AS AN OPEN WAVE
AND MORE OF A GLANCING BLOW TO FAR NORTHERN NM. MODELS BECOME
COMPLETELY OUT OF PHASE BY MID WEEK NEXT WEEK AND FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE BEYOND SUNDAY NIGHT REMAINS LOW.
33
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A DRYING/WARMING TREND TO KICK-OFF TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY
BEFORE GOING FLAT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST
THIS AFTERNOON EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...BUT WETTING
POTENTIAL IS DOWN COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. VENTILATION
WILL BE A MIXED-BAG TODAY...WITH MUCH OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
HAVING A HARD TIME MOVING OUT OF THE POOR CATEGORY.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THEN SHIFT EAST ACROSS NEW
MEXICO INTO FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND UP TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL
WITH HUMIDITY TRENDING DOWN TO WITHIN 5 PERCENT OF CRITICAL
THRESHOLD ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY. VENT RATES WILL TREND
DOWN AS WELL...WITH MUCH OF THE AREA STAYING POOR ON FRIDAY.
VENTILATION IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND GIVEN HIGH
FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA AND
MODERATE WESTERLIES PUNCHING INTO THE STATE. HAINES INDICES WILL
TREND UP GOING INTO SATURDAY AS WELL...WITH MOSTLY 5S FORECAST
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS...INCLUDING THE EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS. WINDS INCREASE SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH A PROGRESSIVE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
A COOL-DOWN FORECAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW NORMAL.
NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FORECAST THIS CYCLE...BUT BRIEF
HITS ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST PLAINS ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY.
11
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1036 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014
.UPDATE...
LOWERED POPS AND SKY COVER FOR MUCH OF WESTERN NM FOR THE REMAINDER
OF TODAY. FOCUSED GREATEST CHANCES ALONG EAST SLOPES OF SACRAMENTO
MTS TO THE TEXAS STATE LINE. 12Z RAOB AT FLAGSTAFF INDICATED DRIER
AIR AND RIDGING ADVECTING INTO OUR REGION TODAY...WHILE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE STILL HOLDS STRONG. LATEST HRRR AND NAM12 SOLUTIONS SHOW
SPRINKLE TYPE ACTIVITY FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM. EVEN IF ANY
SHOWERS DO POP AROUND CENTRAL MTS THEY ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
VERY LITTLE QPF. BEST SHOT AT WETTING RAINFALL WILL BE OVER THE FAR
SOUTHEAST.
GUYER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...543 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014...
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
A MIXED BAG OF MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN THIS MORNING. KLVS HAS IMPROVED TO VFR AND WILL
LIKELY STAY THERE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. PREVAILING IFR
CONDITIONS AT KROW WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE THIS MORNING...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS FORECAST TO RETURN BY 19Z. LOWER FORECAST CONFIDENCE AT
KTCC...BUT MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE TERMINAL OFF-AND-ON
THROUGH 15Z. IFR CIGS AT KSAF THIS MORNING MAY LOWER TO THE
GROUND BETWEEN 06-08Z...WITH RAPID IMPROVEMENT THEREAFTER. VFR
CONDITIONS FORECAST TO PERSIST AT KFMN...KGUP...KAEG AND KABQ WITH
LIGHT WINDS.
11
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...330 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
THE LAST IN A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS WILL MOVE
THROUGH EASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH PASSAGE THIS MORNING BEFORE A DRIER MORE STABLE
AIRMASS MOVES IN DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY...A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN
AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. A DRY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH WESTERN NEW MEXICO SUNDAY AND
THROUGH EASTERN AREAS SUNDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP TEMPERATURES
DOWN 10-15F MONDAY THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK...NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR LATE OCTOBER.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVING THROUGH EASTERN NM EARLY THIS
MORNING. DRIER AIR ALOFT ALREADY WORKING INTO WRN NM AND WITH
MODERATE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE...NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
TODAY. A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AS SURFACE HEATING
WILL BE STRONGER THAN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS BUT THEY`LL HAVE TO
FIGHT THE DRY AIR ALOFT AND A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.
ADDITIONALLY...A TRAILING SHORT- WAVE/SPEED MAX IN THE DEVELOPING NW
FLOW ALOFT OVER FAR NE NM MAY HELP GET A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS GOING OVER THE FAR NE HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS THIS
EVENING. AREAS OF FOG LIKELY IN THE MORENO VALLEY AND ESTANCIA
BASIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNINGS AS INCREASING TEMPERATURES ALOFT CREATE
VERY STRONG TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS.
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THE RULE ON THURSDAY AS A STRONG
SUBTROPICAL HIGH INCHES NEWD FROM SRN AZ. THIS STRONG DOME OF HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT IS PROGGED TO MOVE SMACK DAB OVER CENTRAL NM FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECTING A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL
FLIRT WITH NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT
SATURDAY APPEARS TO BE THE WARMER DAY AS SWLY BREEZES DUE TO A
STRENGTHENING LEE SFC TROUGH RESULT IN DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS. EXPECT A FEW
LOCATIONS FROM CLAYTON SOUTH TO TUCUMCARI...CLOVIS/PORTALES AND
ROSWELL COULD REACH OR EXCEED THEIR RECORD HIGHS FOR THE DATE.
SWLY FLOW ALOFT OVER NM TRANSITIONS TO WLY ON SUNDAY. GFS AND
ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SEWD
THROUGH WRN AND CENTRAL NM SUNDAY...BRINGING A COOL DOWN OF ABOUT
5-8 DEGREES MOST AREAS WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER/COLDER AIR IS EXPECTED SUNDAY
NIGHT...COOLING TEMPERATURES FURTHER. MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE COMING
MORE IN LINE WITH REGARD THE THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT TIME-FRAME...KEEPING IT AS AN OPEN WAVE
AND MORE OF A GLANCING BLOW TO FAR NORTHERN NM. MODELS BECOME
COMPLETELY OUT OF PHASE BY MID WEEK NEXT WEEK AND FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE BEYOND SUNDAY NIGHT REMAINS LOW.
33
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A DRYING/WARMING TREND TO KICK-OFF TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY
BEFORE GOING FLAT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST
THIS AFTERNOON EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...BUT WETTING
POTENTIAL IS DOWN COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. VENTILATION
WILL BE A MIXED-BAG TODAY...WITH MUCH OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
HAVING A HARD TIME MOVING OUT OF THE POOR CATEGORY.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THEN SHIFT EAST ACROSS NEW
MEXICO INTO FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND UP TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL
WITH HUMIDITY TRENDING DOWN TO WITHIN 5 PERCENT OF CRITICAL
THRESHOLD ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY. VENT RATES WILL TREND
DOWN AS WELL...WITH MUCH OF THE AREA STAYING POOR ON FRIDAY.
VENTILATION IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND GIVEN HIGH
FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA AND
MODERATE WESTERLIES PUNCHING INTO THE STATE. HAINES INDICES WILL
TREND UP GOING INTO SATURDAY AS WELL...WITH MOSTLY 5S FORECAST
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS...INCLUDING THE EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS. WINDS INCREASE SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH A PROGRESSIVE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
A COOL-DOWN FORECAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW NORMAL.
NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FORECAST THIS CYCLE...BUT BRIEF
HITS ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST PLAINS ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY.
11
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1133 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
ISOLD SHOWERS AND TSTMS MOVG NORTHEAST OVER THE EAST CENTRAL
PLAINS AND TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEST AND CENTRAL.
THIS ACTIVITY LOOKS TO PERSIST AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS TRACKS
OVER NEW MEXICO THROUGH 12Z. OTHERWISE...HIGHER TERRAIN WILL BE
OBSCD IN MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN BR UNTIL AROUND 16Z FROM THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN
PLAINS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS PLENTIFUL AND SFC LEE TROUGH
KEEPS LOW LEVEL WINDS GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTH.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...751 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014...
.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO LESSEN POPS ACROSS THE WEST...AND TWEAK THEM
ACROSS THE EAST TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS. NOW THAT WE HAVE LOSS
AFTERNOON HEATING...MUCH OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE WEST
HAS DIMINISHED. MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE NO MORE THAN A FEW
SPRINKLES THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. THE HRRR EVEN SUGGESTS
THAT THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY MAY SEE SOME SPRINKLES AROUND
MIDNIGHT AS A WEAK TROUGH AXIS SWINGS ACROSS. MEANWHILE...THE
LARGER AREA OF SHRA/TSTMS ACROSS THE EAST HAS MOSTLY
DIMINISHED...BUT A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS...AND THE OCCASIONAL
RUMBLE OF THUNDER...HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS. THE HRRR
SUGGESTS MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT...BUT MAY
PERSIST LONGER AS THE NOSE OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET POKES INTO THE
EAST. UPDATES ALREADY OUT.
34
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...318 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL CROSS NEW
MEXICO EARLY WEDNESDAY AND FORCE THE RECENT MOIST AND RELATIVELY
COOL PATTERN OUT OF THE AREA. AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG DOME OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BRINGING
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...DRY CONDITIONS...AND LIGHT WINDS.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE COOL BUT STILL ABOVE LATE
OCTOBER NORMALS. THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN BY SUNDAY...USHERING IN
BREEZY AND COOLER CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY. THE NEXT POTENTIAL
STORM SYSTEM WILL ATTEMPT TO SLIDE INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
MAIN CHANGES TO FORECAST PACKAGE INCLUDED TAPERING BACK SHOWER AND
STORM CHANCES OVER CENTRAL/WESTERN NM TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ADDED
SOME FOG IN MORENO VALLEY TONIGHT AND INTO THE PECOS VALLEY TMRW
NIGHT. ALSO RAISED TEMPS WELL ABOVE CONSENSUS GUIDANCE OVER THE
PLAINS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY TO COME IN LINE BETTER WITH SIGNIFICANTLY
WARMER TEMPS FROM WEST TEXAS OFFICES.
THE 2030Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED UPPER TROUGH AXIS
RACING EAST INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...WITH A SHARP PUNCH OF DRY
AIR IN ITS WAKE. THE SURFACE FRONT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM
IS LAGGING OVER CENTRAL NV AND NORTHWEST UT. THE ENTIRE UPPER TROUGH
FEATURE IS SHOWN BY MODELS TO ESSENTIALLY SHEAR APART AND LIFT WELL
NORTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
LEAVE NM IN GENERALLY WEAK QUASI-ZONAL FLOW THROUGH THURSDAY. ALL IN
ALL THIS HAS TRENDED FASTER SO HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT AND LOWERED POP
VALUES MOST AREAS WEST OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN. THE EAST WILL LIKELY
REMAIN SOCKED IN LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THROUGH THE 1ST PART OF
WEDNESDAY.
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG 591DM H5 HIGH CENTER WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
DESERT SW BY LATE THURSDAY...AND BRING SOME REALLY SPECTACULAR
WEATHER TO OUR REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. A PARTIAL SOLAR ECLIPSE
VISIBLE WITHIN NM LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD HAVE VERY NICE
VIEWING CONDITIONS. TRENDED TEMPS UP A COUPLE DEGREES THURSDAY...AND
ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ACROSS THE EAST TO ACCOUNT FOR MUCH
WARMER READINGS FROM THE WEST TX OFFICES. VERY LIGHT WINDS ALOFT...
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S...MINIMAL SURFACE LEE TROUGHING OVER
THE PLAINS...AND LATE OCTOBER SUN WOULD LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR TEMPS
ABOVE RECORDS...BUT WILL GET ANOTHER CHANCE TO REVISIT LATER.
LEE TROUGHING WILL BE NOTABLE SATURDAY SO THAT COULD ACTUALLY BE THE
WARMEST DAY FOR THE EAST. TIMING ON THE RIDGE BREAK DOWN HAS BECOME
MORE DISJOINTED BETWEEN MODELS...SO CONFIDENCE DECREASES ON THE
PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SUNDAY IS PROGGED TO BE THE BREEZIEST
FOR THE EAST WITH STRONGER LEE TROUGHING...WHILE THE WEST COOLS OFF.
BEYOND THE WEEKEND...MODELS ARE FLIP/FLOPPING ON A POTENTIAL WINTER
STORM SYSTEM BY MID WEEK.
GUYER
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY MOIST ACROSS SE AND S CENTRAL SECTIONS OF
FCST AREA...NOT AS MOIST ELSEWHERE BUT STILL MORE SO THAN NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. MOST NUMEROUS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
REST OF AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT SHOULD BE ACROSS SE AND E CENTRAL
SECTIONS. DRIER WED...THOUGH STILL SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS
A POSSIBILITY ACROSS MAINLY THE SE PLAINS AND SACRAMENTO MTNS
VICINITY. THEREAFTER A WARMING AND FURTHER DRYING TREND BEGINNING AS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. UPPER LOW EARLIER
NEAR THE BOOTHEEL IS SLOWLY OPENING UP INTO A WAVE AND SHOULD SLOWLY
EASE ACROSS S CENTRAL INTO SE NM BETWEEN TONIGHT AND MID MORN WED.
BROADER BUT FAIRLY WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL HELP USHER THAT SYSTEM
EAST OF THE STATE LATER WED...AIDING TRANSITION TO DRIER CONDITIONS
AND SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS. STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE COMING
INTO THE STATE WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI. AS A RESULT MINIMUM HUMIDITY
WILL TREND DOWN AS HIGH TEMPERATURES TREND UP TO ABOVE NORMAL THU
AND FRI. THIS PATTERN WILL ALSO CREATE POOR VENTILATION ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK...ESPECIALLY IN VALLEYS WHERE
TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS WILL BE STUBBORN OR SLOW TO BREAK. AREAS EAST
OF CENTRAL MTN CHAIN AND NEAR TO SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 MAY STILL
SEE FAIR TO GOOD RATES WED AND THU...LOWERING A BIT FRI. RATES NO
BETTER AND GENERALLY LOWER ELSEWHERE.
A VERY SHARP INCREASE IN TRANSPORT WINDS...MIXING HEIGHTS AND THUS
VENT RATES OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AS WINDS ALOFT
INCREASE NOTICEABLY AND A DEEPENING LEE SIDE TROUGH TAKES SHAPE.
WHILE NEAR SFC WINDS REACH CRITICAL LEVELS IN SOME SPOTS...MAINLY
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NE HIGHLANDS AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF WEST
CENTRAL NM. AT THIS TIME STILL LOOKS LIKE MIN RH LOOKS TO STAY ABOVE
CRITICAL THRESHOLD...BUT THIS WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY WITH NEWER
FCST MODEL RUNS AS SUNDAY MAY END UP WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR BETWEEN
1 AND 3 HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.
43
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1245 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
.DISCUSSION...
THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....
&&
.AVIATION...
A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A BAND OF SHRA ACROSS MUCH OF OK
AND N TX THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED
TSRA...BUT CHANCES OF OCCURRENCE AT ANY GIVEN POINT ARE VERY LOW.
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WITHIN SOME OF THE EXPANSE OF CLOUD
COVER...ESPECIALLY WITHIN SHRA...AND THIS WILL PERSIST
INTERMITTENTLY THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. THE TAFS HIGHLIGHT THE
MOST LIKELY TIME FOR OCCURRENCE OF SHRA...BUT SHRA WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z AT ALL SITES...AND UNTIL ABOUT 18Z
AT KPNC. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT IFR CONDITIONS...BUT AT THIS
POINT IT APPEARS THAT ANY SUCH CONDITIONS WOULD BE FAIRLY SHORT-
LIVED AND ISOLATED.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/
UPDATE...
LOWERED MAX TEMPS AND EXPANDED POPS EASTWARD.
DISCUSSION...
WITH THE INCOMING SHOWERS AND LOW CLOUDS...LOOKS LIKE TEMPS IN
WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE. HRRR IS SHOWING
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING FARTHER EAST THAN ORIGINALLY
FORECAST...SO EXPANDED POPS EASTWARD A BIT. OVERALL COVERAGE STILL
LOOKS TO BE A BIT SPOTTY...SO OPTED NOT TO RAISE POPS MUCH AT THIS
POINT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/
AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...LITTLE IF ANY LIGHTNING ASSOCIATED WITH PRECIPITATION
ACROSS WEST TEXAS THIS MORNING. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
THIS MORNING ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AS A TROUGH APPROACHES.
BAND OF PRECIP SHOULD MOVE ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA BETWEEN 18-23Z.
CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS BETWEEN 22Z-4Z.
SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/
DISCUSSION...
LITTLE IF ANY CLOUD COVER EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT THIS WILL
CHANGE THROUGH THE MORNING...AS CLOUDS INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF A
TROUGH. MEANWHILE...LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...WILL RESULT IN PATCHY
DENSE FOG. MOST OF THE FOG WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE.
A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS
TODAY...WILL GENERALLY PHASE WITH ANOTHER TROUGH OVER EASTERN NEW
MEXICO/COLORADO. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALTHOUGH WEAK...ENOUGH INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED FOR SOME STORMS.
AFTER THE TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY...VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN...AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS.
ANOTHER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES ON MONDAY. THE EC IS THE
STRONGEST WITH THE TROUGH AS IT HAS BEEN WITH THE LAST FEW
SYSTEMS. THE GFS MAY BE A LITTLE WEAK...BUT STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP
CHANCES LOW FOR RAIN/STORMS WITH THE COLD FRONT (MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT).
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 79 57 80 56 / 20 40 10 0
HOBART OK 78 57 81 57 / 50 40 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 81 59 82 57 / 30 30 10 0
GAGE OK 74 54 79 51 / 40 30 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 79 59 78 55 / 20 50 20 0
DURANT OK 79 55 76 56 / 0 20 20 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
14/23/23
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORMAN OK
1020 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
.UPDATE...
LOWERED MAX TEMPS AND EXPANDED POPS EASTWARD.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
WITH THE INCOMING SHOWERS AND LOW CLOUDS...LOOKS LIKE TEMPS IN
WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE. HRRR IS SHOWING
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING FARTHER EAST THAN ORIGINALLY
FORECAST...SO EXPANDED POPS EASTWARD A BIT. OVERALL COVERAGE STILL
LOOKS TO BE A BIT SPOTTY...SO OPTED NOT TO RAISE POPS MUCH AT THIS
POINT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/
AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...LITTLE IF ANY LIGHTNING ASSOCIATED WITH PRECIPITATION
ACROSS WEST TEXAS THIS MORNING. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
THIS MORNING ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AS A TROUGH APPROACHES.
BAND OF PRECIP SHOULD MOVE ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA BETWEEN 18-23Z.
CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS BETWEEN 22Z-4Z.
SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/
DISCUSSION...
LITTLE IF ANY CLOUD COVER EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT THIS WILL
CHANGE THROUGH THE MORNING...AS CLOUDS INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF A
TROUGH. MEANWHILE...LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...WILL RESULT IN PATCHY
DENSE FOG. MOST OF THE FOG WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE.
A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS
TODAY...WILL GENERALLY PHASE WITH ANOTHER TROUGH OVER EASTERN NEW
MEXICO/COLORADO. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALTHOUGH WEAK...ENOUGH INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED FOR SOME STORMS.
AFTER THE TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY...VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN...AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS.
ANOTHER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES ON MONDAY. THE EC IS THE
STRONGEST WITH THE TROUGH AS IT HAS BEEN WITH THE LAST FEW
SYSTEMS. THE GFS MAY BE A LITTLE WEAK...BUT STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP
CHANCES LOW FOR RAIN/STORMS WITH THE COLD FRONT (MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT).
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 80 57 80 56 / 10 40 10 0
HOBART OK 78 57 81 57 / 40 40 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 81 59 82 57 / 20 30 10 0
GAGE OK 78 54 79 51 / 40 30 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 80 59 78 55 / 10 50 20 0
DURANT OK 78 55 76 56 / 0 20 20 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
14/23
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND OR
940 AM PDT WED OCT 22 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG AND SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS
ACCESS TO A MODEST ATMOSPHERIC RIVER OF MOISTURE WHICH STRETCHES
ACROSS MUCH OF THE PACIFIC...MEANING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN FOR
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. THE
CENTRAL OREGON COAST WILL REMAIN WINDY THROUGH MORNING...AND
POTENTIALLY INTO THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIE DOWN BEHIND THE FRONT
AS IT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA LATER TODAY. ANOTHER WET AND
POTENTIALLY WINDY SYSTEM IS EXPECTED BY THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.MORNING UPDATE...AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS LASHED
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE TO
IMPACT THE REGION THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A STRONG AND MOIST
FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHING ONSHORE. THE HEAVIEST RAIN SO FAR HAS FALLEN
OVER THE S WASHINGTON AND N OREGON COAST AND COAST RANGE...WHERE
GENERALLY 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED. FAST RESPONDING STREAMS IN THIS AREA SUCH AS THE GRAYS
RIVER AND THE NASELLE RIVER AS SHOWING SHARP RISES OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS. WE WILL BE MONITORING CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AS THE
LATEST FORECAST FOR THE THE GRAYS HAS THE RIVER STAGE REACHING JUST
SHORT OF FLOOD STAGE. AS THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT PUSHES SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST...THE BAND OF HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MORE
FOCUSED OVER THE CASCADES...WILLAMETTE VALLEY...AND OREGON COAST
RANGE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. FORECASTED RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THE
ENTIRE EVENT AREA ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 1-2 INCHES IN THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY...2-4 INCHES ALONG THE COAST...AND 3-5 INCHES FOR
MOST OF OUR HIGHER TERRAIN. IN ADDITION TO WATCHING OUR FAST
RESPONDING RIVERS AND STREAMS DRAINING THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WILL KEEP
AN EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING OVER
THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS. THIS THREAT COULD BE EXACERBATED BY FALLEN
LEAVES CLOGGING STORM DRAINS.
THE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAVE BEEN GUSTY...BUT HAVE
FALLEN SHORT OF EXPECTATIONS FOR THE MOST PART. MOST BEACH AND
HEADLAND LOCATIONS HAVE TOPPED OUT AROUND 45-55 MPH...WITH A FEW
SPOTS GUSTING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ALONG THE NORTH OREGON
COAST. THE STRONGER WINDS ARE NOW CONFINED MAINLY TO THE CENTRAL
OREGON COAST AND COAST RANGE. DECIDED TO ALLOW THE HIGH WIND WARNING
TO EXPIRE FOR THE NORTH OREGON COAST AS OF 9 AM. THE LATEST RUNS OF
THE SHORT TERM HRRR AND RAP MODELS INDICATE THAT A WAVE MOVING ALONG
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY RE-ENERGIZE THE WINDS ALONG THE CENTRAL OREGON
COAST AGAIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THUS...THE HIGH WIND WARNING
CURRENTLY SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT NOON MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED. WILL
MONITOR THIS POSSIBILITY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. PYLE
.REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION REMAINS UNCHANGED...
THURSDAY THE MAIN FRONTAL ZONE WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA...THOUGH SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE. RAINFALL THURSDAY WILL BE
CONSIDERABLY LESS THAN WEDNESDAY. COULD BE A COUPLE SUNBREAKS BETWEEN
SHOWERS...SO INCREASED MAX TEMPS SLIGHTLY.
THERE IS ANOTHER STRONG AND WET STORM EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH ALONG
THE COAST AND IMPACT NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
SIGNIFICANTLY ON FRIDAY INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. WHILE
THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODELS...THIS SYSTEM IS
LOOKING QUITE WET AGAIN...WITH A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL PROBABLY BRING
MORE WIDESPREAD HIGH WINDS TO THE COAST AND A SIGNIFICANT NUMBER OF
TRACKS SUGGEST POSSIBLY VERY WINDY CONDITIONS INLAND AS WELL. AUTUMN
IS KICKING INTO FULL GEAR WITH A BANG.WEAGLE/TOLLESON
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE
TO KEEP THE REGION IN AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS FRONTAL SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH EVERY OTHER. WHILE SOME SUBTLE
DIFFERENCES REMAIN...MODELS REMAIN IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT
ANOTHER POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE BRINGING A
ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS AND POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINFALL FOR LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. SHOWERS LIKELY LINGER FOR SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY FOR MORE RAINFALL.
WHILE SOME QUESTION REMAINS AS TO HOW THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL
EVOLVE AND TRACK...AND JUST HOW STRONG THEY WILL BE...IT SEEMS
LIKELY THAT WE WILL REMAIN IN AN ACTIVE PATTERN WITH WET WEATHER AT
TIMES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.CULLEN
&&
.AVIATION...A MIX OF IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST
SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON TO MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
WITH ONLY OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS...PARTICULARLY AT KAST.
CONDITIONS MAY HOLD IN IFR A BIT LONGER AT KONP. FURTHER
INLAND...WEAKENING WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND
STEADY RAIN MAY PRODUCE A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS...AND
SCATTERED BRIEF BOUTS OF IFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...INCREASING LOW
LEVEL INSTABILITY SHOULD ALLOW ALL INTERIOR TAF SITES TO GENERALLY
RETURN TO VFR OVERNIGHT...LIKELY LASTING THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING STEADY RAIN
TODAY. HOWEVER...BREEZY SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS SHOULD KEEP CIGS
AND VISIBILITIES VFR THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. AS WINDS WEAKEN
TOWARDS 00Z TO 06Z THURSDAY...MVFR TO EVEN BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS
MAY DEVELOP FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND THIS TIME. HOWEVER...INCREASING
LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO VFR. /NEUMAN
&&
.MARINE...A COLD FRONT REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE WATERS...STRETCHING
FROM BUOY 50 NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST. SOUTH OF
THE FRONT WINDS ARE GENERALLY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WITH
GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KT. HOWEVER...A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS LIKELY
DEVELOPING FURTHER TO THE WEST ALONG THE FRONT...AND MAY PUSH THE
FRONT BACK NORTHWARD AND TEMPORARILY STRENGTHEN IT THIS AFTERNOON.
A FEW SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST GALE FORCE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE INNER WATERS...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE CENTRAL OREGON
COAST. AS A RESULT...KEPT THE GALE WARNING GOING FOR THE CENTRAL
OREGON WATERS AND WILL DECIDE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO WHETHER OR
NOT TO EXTEND IT INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS BASED ON THE LATEST
TRENDS IN THE MODELS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED
MODELS ARE CURRENTLY WAY OVERDONE ON THEIR WIND SPEEDS...MAKING
IT DIFFICULT TO TRUST THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. AS A
RESULT...THE WIND FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE A LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST EVEN IF THE GALE WARNING IS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE
OR IF IT IS EXTENDED.
SEAS ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING ABOVE MODEL GUIDANCE...GENERALLY IN THE
17 TO 19 FT RANGE. GIVEN WINDS HAVE DROPPED CONSIDERABLY ACROSS
THE WATERS...SEAS SHOULD RESPOND FAIRLY QUICK IN THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS AND DROP INTO THE 14 TO 16 FT RANGE BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
SEAS MAY HOLD STEADY FOR A COUPLE HOURS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING DEPENDING ON WHETHER OR NOT THE AFOREMENTIONED WINDS
MATERIALIZE...BUT OTHERWISE THEY SHOULD CONTINUE A DOWNWARD TREND
INTO THE 11 TO 13 FT RANGE BY THURSDAY MORNING.
SEAS SHOULD DROP BELOW 10 FT LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. MODELS
CONTINUE TO CONVERGE TOWARDS A COMMON SOLUTION THAT WOULD RESULT
IN A DEEPENING 985MB-ISH LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHWARD INSIDE 130
W. THIS WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY PRODUCE GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE
WATERS...WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS OF 50 KT OR
GREATER SATURDAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF 20 FT OR MORE SEAS WILL
CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY.
IN ADDITION...ANOTHER STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING AT LEAST GALE FORCE WINDS MAY IMPACT THE WATERS EARLY
NEXT WEEK. /NEUMAN
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON PDT TODAY FOR CENTRAL OREGON COAST.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THURSDAY
FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
OUT 60 NM.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR COASTAL WATERS
FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 5 AM PDT
THURSDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 3 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
OUT 10 NM.
&&
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR NORTH OREGON
COAST.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON PDT TODAY FOR CENTRAL OREGON COAST.
WA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR SOUTH
WASHINGTON COAST.
PZ...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR COASTAL WATERS
FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 5 AM
PDT THURSDAY.
&&
$$
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
310 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY AND COOL WEATHER TO CENTRAL PA
ALONG WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW
MOVES NORTH THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
MIGRATE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS TO THE EAST COAST BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN FAIR WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A SLOW MOVING CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE NEAR-TO-SHORT RANGE PERIOD. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS A MYRIAD OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES SWIRLING AROUND THE
MAIN UPPER LOW CIRCULATION WHICH APPEARS TO BE OVER VA AT 06Z. THE
MODELS SHOW THIS FEATURE TRACKING OFFSHORE OF THE VA COAST AND
DELMARVA BY 18Z THEN TURNING NWD THIS EVENING BEFORE WRAPPING NWWD
BACK TOWARD LONG ISLAND BY 23/12Z. THE SFC LOW SHOULD TAKE A
SIMILAR TRACK WHICH IS LKLY BEST REPRESENTED BY EITHER THE 00Z
GEFS/21Z SREF OR BLEND OF THE DETERMINISTIC GFS/ECMWF. THE 00Z NAM
IS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE THIS CLUSTER NEAR CAPE COD.
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE FAR SERN
ZONES THIS MORNING WHERE AN AXIS OF MOD RAFL WITH OCNL TS/LTG HAS
BEEN PIVOTING NWWD TWD THE RT 30 CORRIDOR. THIS FAIRLY ORGANIZED
BAND APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH VORT MAX LIFTING NWD ACROSS THE
NRN DELMARVA...AND MAY PRODUCE SOME 0.50"+ AMTS OVER EXTREME SERN
YORK AND LANCASTER COS. WILL USE THE HRRR AND BLEND OF MODEL QPFS
AS A GUIDE FOR POPS FOR LATER TODAY...WHICH STILL FAVORS THE SERN
1/3 OF THE CWA. ELSEWHERE...LIGHT RAIN/DZ WILL BE INTERMITTENT
WITH POP GRADIENT GENERALLY DECREASING FROM SE TO NW. IT WILL BE
COOL AND RAW DAY WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND INCREASING/GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE WILL MOVE LITTLE ON DAY 2 OFF THE NORTHEAST
U.S. COAST AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE UPPER MIDWEST WEAKENS
AND SPLITS THROUGH THE MS VLY. THE MODELS SHOW THE SRN BRANCH WAVE
APPROACHING THE APPALACHIANS BY 12Z FRI WITH THE GFS BEING FLATTER
AND MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE EC. THE MAIN WRAP-AROUND PCPN AREA
SHOULD SHIFT INTO NERN PA ON BACKSIDE OF THE SLOWLY DEPARTING
COASTAL STORM SYSTEM. THURS WILL BE ANOTHER RAW DAY WITH BRISK
NORTHERLY WINDS AND HIGHS ABOUT 5F BELOW LATE OCTOBER NORMALS.
POPS SHOULD CONTINUE TO TREND LOWER INTO TOMORROW NIGHT WITH
PORTIONS OF SRN/SWRN PA STARTING TO SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE PERIOD WILL START WITH THE NEW ENGLAND COASTAL STORM BOTTOMING
OUT OFF THE NJ COAST ON THU AND THEN LIFTING SLOWLY NEWD ALONG
THE NORTHEAST COAST TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH SAT.
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW NICE AGREEMENT AS WELL AS SOLID
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY...SO MINIMAL CHANGES NEEDED TO OVERALL
EXTENDED FORECAST.
THIS STACKED LOW WILL KEEP BREEZY CONDITIONS AND THE CHANCE OF
CHILLY WRAP-AROUND RAINS IN THE FCST POSSIBLY INTO
FRI...DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE STORM LIFTS OUT AND IF A SHORTWAVE
WRAPPING AROUND IT EDGES BACK INTO NE PA ON FRI. THE IMPETUS TO
KICK STORM NE LIES UPSTREAM WITH STRONG SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO SPLIT OVER THE
CENTRAL U.S. WITH NRN STREAM ENERGY PROJECTED TO DIG SEWD THROUGH
THE APPALACHIANS AND MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST BY SAT NGT.
PROGRESSIVE RIDGE SLIDES THROUGH SUN AND MON...BRINGING LIGHTER
WINDS AND GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER TO START THE WEEK. MODELS ALSO
BRING A PUSH OF WARMER TEMPS INTO THE REGION AS FLOW TURNS SW
AHEAD OF A WAVE SLIDING THROUGH NATIONS MIDSECTION. LOW LIFTS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES /TRACKING TO OUR NW/ MON-TUE WITH MILDER
TEMPS IN CENTRAL PA. PUSH BEHIND THE WAVE WILL NUDGE A COOL FRONT
WITH LIMITED SUPPORT THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH GENERAL COOLING TREND
FOR MID-LATE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FANTASTIC SCENE ON RADAR OVER THE SE WHERE ELEMENTS MOVING N-S
UNDERNEATH THE BULK OF THE RETURNS WHICH ARE SLIDING S-N IN FROM
MD/DE. THE UPPER LOW IS MOVING SLOWLY EAST AND THE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN WITH CEILINGS EXPECTED TO
DETERIORATE IN THE SE AND AT BFD. JST ALREADY IN THE SOUP.
HOWEVER...THE CURRENTLY HIGHER CIGS AT UNV/AOO MAY STAY THERE FOR
MOST OF THE NIGHT. WILL HOLD MORE PESSIMISTIC 1KFT CIG AT IPT AS
THICKER MSTR EVIDENT UPSTREAM IN NE PA/ERN NY. LIGHTNING IS VERY
CLOSE TO IPT AND HAVE INSERTED VCTS IN THE FIRST TWO HRS OF THE
FCST.
SFC LOW IS GOING TO MOVE SLIGHTLY TO THE NE AND UPPER LOW SHOULD
SLIDE EAST A BIT AS THE TAF PERIOD PROGRESSES. THUS...THE THE
CIRCULATION AROUND THE STORM WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN SHOWERS BACK
INTO SERN PA AND ALSO INTO THE NERN MTNS/POCONOS. SOME DRYING IS
POSSIBLE WED AFTN...BUT WITH THE UPPER LOW STILL OVERHEAD...
INSTABILITY SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WHERE THE CLOUDS CAN BREAK A
BIT.
OUTLOOK...
THU-FRI...LOW CIGS POSS NRN MTNS...MAINLY AT NIGHT/EARLY AM. SHRA
POSS ERN THIRD.
SAT-SUN...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...RXR/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...DANGELO/LA CORTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
1041 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014
EARLIER FOG/STRATUS GONE BY NOON ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA...AND WIDESPREAD SUNSHINE HAS BEEN THE RULE OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...BAND OF CIRRUS WORKING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE RUSHMORE STATE...AND REMAINS TO BE SEEN IF THAT WILL BE
THICK ENOUGH IN SPOTS TO IMPAIR VIEWING OF THE PARTIAL SOLAR ECLIPSE
LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA. VERY DRY AIR HAS MIXED
DOWN FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS...BUT AREAS TO THE SOUTH TOWARD SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA YET HAVE A BIT OF STRATUS TO REMOVE...AND
TRAJECTORY OF HIGHER LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS TO DEAL WITH. INVERSION
TONIGHT WILL BE IN PLACE AS TEMPS CONTINUE TO WARM ALOFT...AND
SHOULD PROVIDE AN EFFECTIVE CONDUIT TO TRANSPORT THIS
MOISTURE NORTHWARD. LIKELY WILL SEE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG AGAIN TONIGHT. NAM AND RAP ARE QUITE INDICATIVE OF THE
POTENTIAL...WITH SREF PROBABILITIES GARNERING ATTENTION IN THE 09Z-
12Z WINDOW. HOWEVER...A BIT MORE WIND...DAY OF DRYING...AND SOME
HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDINESS GIVES THIS A BIT MORE STRATUS OVER FOG LOOK
FOR THE LATTER OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING. TRAJECTORY OF FLOW WOULD
FAVOR MAINLY EAST/SOUTHEAST HALF TO TWO THIRDS OF CWA. WIND SHIFT
MOVES INTO THE JAMES VALLEY EARLY MORNING...AND THIS INCREASE IN
WESTERLY COMPONENT WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD ENOUGH TO HELP ERODE LOWER
CLOUDS FAIRLY EFFECTIVELY...IF THE WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW OFF SURFACE
IS NOT ENOUGH TO SPEED ALONG ON ITS OWN.
AFTER REMOVAL OF THE LOWER CLOUDS/FOG...FRIDAY WILL SHAPE UP TO BE A
VERY NICE FALL DAY. WINDS PICKING UP A WESTERLY COMPONENT WILL FAVOR
MIXING...AND HAVE ASSUMED THAT THE LACK OF GREATER MIXING DEPTH IN
THE MODELS IS IN ERROR.
WILL HAVE AN INCREASE IN HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS AS STRONG WAVE MOVES
NORTH OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY...BUT SHOULD STILL MAINTAIN A
MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY BALANCE TO THE DAY. THIS COULD IMPACT
WARMING BY A COUPLE DEGREES...BUT OVERALL WILL SEE 70S ACROSS THE
AREA...AND WILL SEE IF ENOUGH MIXING IN PLAY TO BRING SOME READINGS
AROUND 80 WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014
PLEASANT WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
FILTER INTO THE REGION WILL COOLER UPPER LEVEL FLOW IN PLACE. WHILE
WINDS ON SATURDAY WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS...WINDS
TURN SOUTHEASTERLY AND BECOME BREEZY ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS BOTH
DAYS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70.
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SUNDAY NIGHT
AND NOSES INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON MONDAY.
INITIAL SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD
MAINLY RESULT IN SOME INCREASED CLOUDS...BUT OTHERWISE REMAIN DRY
FOR THE FORECAST AREA WITH VERY DRY LOW LEVELS. MAIN WAVE ARRIVES
MONDAY NIGHT. MODEL TIMING IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR THE ONSET...BUT
THE LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM IS LESS CERTAIN. THE GFS
IN PARTICULAR DEVELOPS A MUCH STRONGER NEGATIVELY TILTED WAVE THAT
BECOMES CUT OFF AND LIFTS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. WITH A
SLOWER AND STRONGER SOLUTION...THE GFS HOLDS ONTO PRECIPITATION IN
OUR FORECAST AREA LONGEST. THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN LOOK TO BE
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...BUT LEFT SOME ISOLATED MENTION MAINLY
ACROSS OUR EASTERN TWO THIRDS ON TUESDAY WITH THE UNCERTAINTY OF
THE TIMING. WITH CLOUDS..RAIN SHOWERS AND COOLER AIR ALOFT
ARRIVING...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AS WELL. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED
IN 50S ON TUESDAY WITH A VERY BRISK NORTHWEST WIND.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE DRY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
KEEPING TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1031 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014
UNCERTAINTY REMAIN IN REGARDS TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS/FOG
LATE TONIGHT AND INTO DAYBREAK. CIRRUS REMAINS RATHER THICK ACROSS
THE AREA...HOLDING TEMPERATURES UP. HOWEVER...AS BREAKS
DEVELOP...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TOWARDS THE ELEVATED CROSSOVER
TEMPERATURE IN THE 46-47 DEGREE RANGE. A WEAK SFC LOW OVER
CENTRAL SD MAY ALSO ADVECT SHALLOW BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION...AND PRIOR TO A WEAK FRONT MOVING
THROUGH AROUND DAYBREAK...POTENTIAL CONTINUES FOR FOG/STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN LOWER CONFIDENCE ON COVERAGE OF LIFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS...WILL ONLY USE A TEMPO GROUP FOR FSD.
THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT DRIER AIR SHOULD FILTER QUICKLY INTO THE
AREA AFTER DAYBREAK AND SHOULD ALLOW SKIES TO SCOUR RATHER
QUICKLY. VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS LIKELY THROUGH
FRIDAY.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CHAPMAN
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DUX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
614 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014
EARLIER FOG/STRATUS GONE BY NOON ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA...AND WIDESPREAD SUNSHINE HAS BEEN THE RULE OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...BAND OF CIRRUS WORKING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE RUSHMORE STATE...AND REMAINS TO BE SEEN IF THAT WILL BE
THICK ENOUGH IN SPOTS TO IMPAIR VIEWING OF THE PARTIAL SOLAR ECLIPSE
LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA. VERY DRY AIR HAS MIXED
DOWN FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS...BUT AREAS TO THE SOUTH TOWARD SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA YET HAVE A BIT OF STRATUS TO REMOVE...AND
TRAJECTORY OF HIGHER LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS TO DEAL WITH. INVERSION
TONIGHT WILL BE IN PLACE AS TEMPS CONTINUE TO WARM ALOFT...AND
SHOULD PROVIDE AN EFFECTIVE CONDUIT TO TRANSPORT THIS
MOISTURE NORTHWARD. LIKELY WILL SEE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG AGAIN TONIGHT. NAM AND RAP ARE QUITE INDICATIVE OF THE
POTENTIAL...WITH SREF PROBABILITIES GARNERING ATTENTION IN THE 09Z-
12Z WINDOW. HOWEVER...A BIT MORE WIND...DAY OF DRYING...AND SOME
HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDINESS GIVES THIS A BIT MORE STRATUS OVER FOG LOOK
FOR THE LATTER OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING. TRAJECTORY OF FLOW WOULD
FAVOR MAINLY EAST/SOUTHEAST HALF TO TWO THIRDS OF CWA. WIND SHIFT
MOVES INTO THE JAMES VALLEY EARLY MORNING...AND THIS INCREASE IN
WESTERLY COMPONENT WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD ENOUGH TO HELP ERODE LOWER
CLOUDS FAIRLY EFFECTIVELY...IF THE WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW OFF SURFACE
IS NOT ENOUGH TO SPEED ALONG ON ITS OWN.
AFTER REMOVAL OF THE LOWER CLOUDS/FOG...FRIDAY WILL SHAPE UP TO BE A
VERY NICE FALL DAY. WINDS PICKING UP A WESTERLY COMPONENT WILL FAVOR
MIXING...AND HAVE ASSUMED THAT THE LACK OF GREATER MIXING DEPTH IN
THE MODELS IS IN ERROR.
WILL HAVE AN INCREASE IN HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS AS STRONG WAVE MOVES
NORTH OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY...BUT SHOULD STILL MAINTAIN A
MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY BALANCE TO THE DAY. THIS COULD IMPACT
WARMING BY A COUPLE DEGREES...BUT OVERALL WILL SEE 70S ACROSS THE
AREA...AND WILL SEE IF ENOUGH MIXING IN PLAY TO BRING SOME READINGS
AROUND 80 WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014
PLEASANT WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
FILTER INTO THE REGION WILL COOLER UPPER LEVEL FLOW IN PLACE. WHILE
WINDS ON SATURDAY WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS...WINDS
TURN SOUTHEASTERLY AND BECOME BREEZY ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS BOTH
DAYS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70.
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SUNDAY NIGHT
AND NOSES INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON MONDAY.
INITIAL SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD
MAINLY RESULT IN SOME INCREASED CLOUDS...BUT OTHERWISE REMAIN DRY
FOR THE FORECAST AREA WITH VERY DRY LOW LEVELS. MAIN WAVE ARRIVES
MONDAY NIGHT. MODEL TIMING IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR THE ONSET...BUT
THE LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM IS LESS CERTAIN. THE GFS
IN PARTICULAR DEVELOPS A MUCH STRONGER NEGATIVELY TILTED WAVE THAT
BECOMES CUT OFF AND LIFTS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. WITH A
SLOWER AND STRONGER SOLUTION...THE GFS HOLDS ONTO PRECIPITATION IN
OUR FORECAST AREA LONGEST. THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN LOOK TO BE
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...BUT LEFT SOME ISOLATED MENTION MAINLY
ACROSS OUR EASTERN TWO THIRDS ON TUESDAY WITH THE UNCERTAINTY OF
THE TIMING. WITH CLOUDS..RAIN SHOWERS AND COOLER AIR ALOFT
ARRIVING...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AS WELL. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED
IN 50S ON TUESDAY WITH A VERY BRISK NORTHWEST WIND.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE DRY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
KEEPING TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 603 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014
COMPLICATED FORECAST THIS EVENING AS QUESTIONS REMAIN TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG/STRATUS LATER TONIGHT. HIGH-RES GUIDANCE ALL
OVER THE PLACE WITH SOLUTIONS FROM SIGNIFICANT DENSE FOG...NO FOG
AND SHALLOW STRATUS LAYER...TO NONE OF THE ABOVE.
A SIGNIFICANT CIRRUS PLUME CONTINUES TO SPREAD EASTWARD THIS
EVENING...COMPLICATING THE FCST AND POSSIBLY PREVENTING A
SIGNIFICANT COOLDOWN. WHILE DEW POINTS HAVE DROPPED SOME THIS
AFTERNOON...THERE REMAINS A SIGNIFICANT POOL OF BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE OVER PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO THE FSD AREA.
WHILE NOT A TRUE RADIATION FOG EVENT...CROSS OVER TEMPS WILL BE
QUITE HIGH...AND COULD LEAD TO RAPID FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. MORE LIKELY IS STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPING TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND ADVECTING NORTHEAST WITH THE LIGHT SE WINDS IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE WITH IFR/LIFR FORECAST AND
LOWER VISIBILITY TO AROUND 1 MILE...WITH MAIN IMPACTS AT FSD/SUX.
WINDS WILL BE A BIT STRONGER ON FRIDAY MORNING...AND WE SHOULD
CLEAR OUT EARLIER THAN THURSDAY. ONCE THAT HAPPENS...VFR
CONDITIONS WOULD BE EXPECTED.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CHAPMAN
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DUX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
616 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014
.AVIATION...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE MAY LEAD TO FOG AGAIN AT
EITHER TAF SITE BEGINNING EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. LOWERED CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE PATCHY THAN THURSDAY MORNING LEADING TO
LESS CONFIDENCE IN THIS TAF. HOWEVER...FOG WILL BE MORE LIKELY
THAN LOW CIGS. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/
SHORT TERM...
UPPER RIDGING GRADUALLY SPREADING IN FROM OUR WEST WILL MAINTAIN
QUIET WEATHER OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. STILL CONTENDING WITH DAMP
SURFACE CONDITIONS...HOWEVER...WHICH WILL CREATE SOME FOG
OPPORTUNITY TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF WINDOW
FOR SHALLOW RADIATION FOG DEVELOPMENT FROM NORTH-CENTRAL INTO
CENTRAL AREAS LATER THIS EVENING INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE WEAK BUT STILL SLIGHTLY CONVERGENT. HRRR
SOLUTIONS THE PAST FEW HOURS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT SHOWING SOME
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT FOG AT LEAST...THOUGH WE DO NOT SEE INDICATIONS
IN THE LATEST RAP OR WRF/NAM RUNS. STILL...HRRR HAS DONE A VERY GOOD
JOB TODAY TO THIS POINT AND WE WILL FOLLOW ITS LEAD. LATER IN THE
NIGHT THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD VEER ACROSS NORTH-NORTHWESTERN AREAS
WITH DIVERGENT TREND AND LESS RISK OF FOG AT THAT TIME. BETTER FOG
SIGNAL LATER TONIGHT RUNS FROM THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE
ROLLING PLAINS...AND MAINLY THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS WHERE WE
HAVE INDICATED AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. THIS WOULD HOLD BIGGEST RISK FOR SIGNIFICANT RESTRICTIONS
AS WELL AND HAVE INDICATED SUCH IN THE HAZARDOUS OUTLOOK. OTHERWISE
STRATUS BY MID TO LATE MORNING FRIDAY SHOULD BE GONE OR DISSOLVING
RAPIDLY AND A WARM DAY WILL LEAD INTO THE WEEKEND WITH LITTLE
DISAGREEMENT FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS. RMCQUEEN
LONG TERM...
UPPER RIDGING WILL KICK OFF THE EXTENDED AND PROVIDE A PERIOD OF
WARM AND DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RUN 10-15 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 80S THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
FEW LOWER 90S COULD EVEN MIX IN OFF THE CAPROCK. BREEZY SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL MATERIALIZE BY LATE WEEKEND AS A LARGE
WESTERN TROUGH BEGINS TO MAKE EASTWARD PROGRESS AND SURFACE
TROUGHING DEEPENS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. MONDAY WILL BRING
ANOTHER WARM DAY AS BREEZY DOWNSLOPING WINDS CONTINUE...BUT THE
APPROACHING MEAN WESTERN TROUGH WILL PROVIDE MODEST DEEP LAYER
COOLING WHICH SHOULD KNOCK SEVERAL DEGREES OFF THE HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON THE CAPROCK. AN INITIAL TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST TO PASS MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIKELY TRACKING OUT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SHORTWAVE...BUT IT CURRENTLY
APPEARS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE TOO LIMITED TO SUPPORT ANY
MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION CHANCES...THOUGH A ROGUE SPRINKLE OR VIRGA
SHOWER MAY BE POSSIBLE. THE ONE EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN ZONES...WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE MAY BE CLOSER BY...BUT EVEN
HERE THE PROSPECTS FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION DOES NOT LOOK VERY
GOOD AND WE HAVE MAINTAINED POPS NEAR 10 PERCENT.
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW THE INITIAL TROUGH PASSAGE AND USHER IN
AN AIR MASS OF PACIFIC ORIGIN MONDAY NIGHT. MORE SEASONABLE LATE
OCTOBER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
SETTING THE STAGE FOR MORE PLEASANT FALL WEATHER WITH MILD DAYS AND
COOL NIGHTS. ANOTHER PASSING UPPER LEVEL WAVE COULD SUPPLY A SECOND
WEAK COLD FRONT BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY...KEEPING
TEMPERATURES NEAR LATE OCTOBER NORMALS. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE
MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 51 84 50 84 50 / 0 0 0 0 0
TULIA 53 85 52 86 53 / 0 0 0 0 0
PLAINVIEW 54 84 53 85 53 / 0 0 0 0 0
LEVELLAND 55 84 51 84 51 / 0 0 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 55 84 55 85 55 / 0 0 0 0 0
DENVER CITY 56 83 52 83 52 / 0 0 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 56 84 52 83 53 / 0 0 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 59 89 57 92 56 / 0 0 0 0 0
SPUR 58 86 55 86 54 / 0 0 0 0 0
ASPERMONT 59 86 57 88 56 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
01
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
922 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 922 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014
THE FOG CONTINUES TO EXPAND ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH SOME
LOCATIONS ALREADY REPORTING DENSE FOG. EXPECT THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE WITH WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG POSSIBLE BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
THUS...PLAN TO MOVE THE START TIME OF THE ADVISORY UP TO THE
CURRENT TIME. SHOULD BE SLOW GOING FRIDAY MORNING COMMUTE WITH
VISIBILITIES OF A QUARTER MILE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...FOG LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRI
MORNING...TEMPERATURES/CLOUDS THRU THE PERIOD.
DATA ANALYSIS AT 18Z HAD THE BAND OF SHRA CONTINUING TO MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE WEST EDGE NEAR A KMDZ-KVOK-KOVS LINE. WV
IMAGERY SHOWED THE RATHER VIGOROUS MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE/TROUGH MOVING
STEADILY EAST ACROSS THE REGION. VIS IMAGERY SHOWED THE CLEARING
BEHIND THE TROUGH WAS SLOWER TO MOVE EAST...WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE/
IFR CLOUD DECKS TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION NEAR 900MB. EARLY
AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 40S IN THE SHRA OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN
WI...TO THE UPPER 50S-MID 60S IN THE SUNSHINE OVER SOUTHWEST MN.
23.12Z MODELS INITIALIZED WELL...EVEN GFS WITH ITS SFC DEWPOINTS
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/NORTHERN PLAINS. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH QUICKLY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND
SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN. CONSISTENT SIGNAL FOR A WEAK SHORTWAVE
FROM THE WEST TO WORK THRU THE SHORTWAVE RIDGING ACROSS REGION LATE
TONIGHT/FRI MORNING. MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT ON A SHORTWAVE/TOUGH
TO DROP TOWARD/ACROSS LK SUPERIOR FRI NIGHT. TREND FOR TONIGHT THRU
FRI NIGHT GENERALLY FAVORS A COMPROMISE OF THE EARLIER RUNS. SHORT
TERM FCST CONFIDENCE IS GOOD THIS CYCLE.
IN THE SHORT TERM...POST TROUGH DECREASE OF CLOUDS/CLEARING EXPECTED
TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE RIDGING/RISING HGTS
BUILD IN. RAIN/CLOUDS TODAY KEEPING T/TD SPREADS ON THE LOW SIDE
OVER THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS PLUS THE DECREASE OF CLOUDS
TONIGHT AND GRADIENT WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT ACROSS MOST OF
THE FCST AREA SETS THE STAGE FOR AREAS TO WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG
LATER TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. CONTINUED STRONG SIGNAL AMONG SREF
MEMBERS FOR VSBYS BELOW 1SM OVER THE EAST 2/3 OF THE FCST AREA
CENTERED ON 12Z FRI MORNING. BASED ON WHAT HAPPENED WITH DENSE FOG
ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL MN...EASTERN SD/NEB...WESTERN IA THIS MORNING...
UPON COORD WITH NEIGHBORS WILL ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE
ENTIRE FCST AREA FROM 06Z-15Z FRI.
MODEST ROUND OF LOWER LEVEL WARM ADVECTION/MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD
OF A SFC-700MB TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA FRI. THE MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FRI MORNING WHILE THE MAIN 925-
850MB MOISTURE INCREASE SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA FRI AFTERNOON/
EVENING. NAM INSISTS ON PRODUCING SOME LIGHT QPF ACROSS THE
SOUTH/WEST PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING BUT
THIS LOOKS OVERDONE DUE TO 1/ THE SHALLOWNESS OF THE MOISTURE 2/
MOISTURE IS UNDER AN INVERSION NEAR 850MB AND 3/ THE SHORTWAVE IS
WELL SOUTH/EAST OF THE AREA BY 00Z SAT. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
PATCHY -DZ BUT MOISTURE LOOKS EVEN TOO SHALLOW FOR THIS AND LEFT
FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING DRY. SOME INCREASE OF LOWER STRATO-CU CLOUDS
EXPECTED FOR FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING...IMPACTING TEMPERATURES. MIXED
925MB TEMPS FRI AFTERNOON WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID 60S-LOW
70S...BUT WITH POTENTIAL FOR THE LOWER AFTERNOON CLOUDS WILL LEAVE
FRI HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 60S. LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES
FRI EVENING...AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH/COLD FRONT WITH THE
LK SUPERIOR SHORTWAVE. 925MB TEMPS PEAK IN THE +13C TO +18C RANGE
AROUND 06Z SAT WITH THE STRONGER LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION ARRIVING
AROUND 12Z SAT. FRONT COMES THRU DRY FRI NIGHT AS 925-700MB LAYER
IS DRY. GIVEN BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS FOR MIXING FRI NIGHT BOTH AHEAD
OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT...FRI NIGHT LOWS CONTINUE TO LOOK QUITE
MILD FOR LATE OCT. USED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE LOWS/HIGHS FOR
TONIGHT THRU SAT NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOR SATURDAY THRU SUNDAY NIGHT...SHRA/TSRA
CHANCES SUN NIGHT...TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD.
23.12Z MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SAT THRU SUN AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PASSES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES EARLY SAT THEN HGTS OVER THE
REGION SLOWLY RISE LATER SAT THRU SUN. GOOD MODEL CONSISTENCY FOR
THE LONGWAVE RIDGE AXIS TO BE NEAR THE MS RIVER AT 00Z MON AND
LONGWAVE TROUGHING TO BE OVER THE ROCKIES. TREND AT 00Z MON FAVORS
SLOWER OF THE EARLIER MODEL RUNS. RIDGE AXIS QUICKLY MOVES EAST
SUN NIGHT WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BY 12Z MON AS THE
ROCKIES TROUGH BEGINS TO EJECT INTO THE PLAINS. FCST CONFIDENCE
FOR SAT THRU SUN NIGHT IS ON THE GOOD SIDE.
SAT THRU SUN DOMINATED BY CAN SFC HIGH PRESSURE. DRY NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA SAT/SAT NIGHT. LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
CONTINUES SAT BUT 925MB TEMPS IN +9C TO +13C AT 00Z SUN. UNDER
SUNNY SKIES...SAT HIGHS STILL LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S-MID 60S
EVEN WITH THE COLD ADVECTION. 925MB WINDS IN THE 25KT RANGE SAT
WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING MIXING TO 900MB SAT AFTERNOON...FOR
BRISK/BREEZY/GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. SFC RIDGE AXIS SLIDES ACROSS
THE AREA SAT NIGHT. WINDS DECOUPLE AND UNDER CLEAR SKIES STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING/LARGE DIURNAL SWING EXPECTED SAT NIGHT. SFC-
850MB RIDGE AXIS QUICKLY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA SUN WITH A RETURN
OF SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH LOW LEVEL FLOW/WARM ADVECTION. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN BEGINS TO SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST END OF THE
FCST AREA LATE SUN. INITIALLY A VERY DRY SFC-500MB AIRMASS TO
MOISTEN UP. THE MOISTURE/THETA-E AXIS AND STRONGER LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION REMAIN WEST/SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA THRU 00Z MON. LEFT
SUNDAY DRY FOR NOW BUT MAY YET NEED A SMALL -SHRA CHANCE ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST END OF THE FCST AREA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. LEAD
ROUND OF STRONGER/DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT/THETA-E
CONVERGENCE AND WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE PLAINS TROUGH/LOW
SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA SUN NIGHT. IMPROVING CONSENSUS FOR A WARM
FRONT AHEAD OF THE LOW IN THE PLAINS TO BE LIFTING ACROSS IA SUN
NIGHT...PROVIDING AN ADDED FOCUS/ISENTROPIC LIFTING MECHANISM
NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY. 250-500+ J/KG OF MUCAPE PROGGED IN THE
AIRMASS BEING LIFTED OVER THE WARM FRONT SUN NIGHT. CONSENSUS RAIN
CHANCES IN THE 20-50 PERCENT RANGE LOOK GOOD SUN NIGHT...AND
CONTINUED THE MENTION OF TSRA. GENERALLY STAYED WITH A BLEND OF
THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HIGHS/LOWS FOR SAT THRU SUN NIGHT.
FOR MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.../DAYS 4 TO 7/...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES MON/MON
NIGHT...SHRA CHANCES TUE/TUE NIGHT...TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD.
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS OF 23.00Z/23.12Z IN GOOD AGREEMENT MON AS
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PLAINS. REASONABLE AGREEMENT
AMONG MODELS TUE AS THE TROUGH/MAIN ENERGY LIFTS INTO THE MID/UPPER
MS VALLEY. TREND MON/TUE FAVORS A COMPROMISE OF THE EARLIER RUNS ON
TIMING/STRENGTH OF THIS TROUGH. RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN
ECMWF/GFS ON WED WITH BROAD TROUGHING OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL/EASTERN
NOAM AND SOME FORM OF RIDGING OVER THE US/CAN ROCKIES. DIFFERENCES
BY THU...MAINLY WITH PROGRESSIVENESS OF A NORTHWEST FLOW SHORTWAVE
INTO THE REGION...WHICH IS NOT UNUSUAL AT DAY 7. 23.12Z ECMWF/GFS IN
BETTER AGREEMENT THU THAN THEIR 23.00Z RUNS WERE. ECMWF OFFERS THE
BETTER RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY WED/THU. FCST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE TO
GOOD MON-WED THEN AVERAGE ON THU.
MOIST AIRMASS WITH UP TO 250-500 J/KG MUCAPE PROGGED OVER THE AREA
MON/MON NIGHT. THIS AHEAD THE SFC-MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
PLAINS AND LIFTING TOWARD THE REGION. PLENTY OF DETAIL DIFFERENCES
WITH THE STRENGTH/LOCATION OF THE SFC LOW/STRONGER FORCING LIFTING
TOWARD/ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AT THE DAY 4 TIME-FRAME BUT THE 20-
50 PERCENT SHRA/TSRA CHANCES PER THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS QUITE
REASONABLE FOR NOW. BY TUE THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE SFC-700MB LOW
AND MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTING ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A
DEFORMATION BAND OF MOISTURE/FORCING TO ROTATE ACROSS THE AREA.
AGAIN PLENTY OF DETAIL DIFFERENCES OUT IN DAY 5 BUT 25-50 PERCENT
SHRA CHANCES PER THE CONSENSUS GOOD AT THIS TIME. SFC THRU MID LEVEL
SYSTEM TO LIFT OUT TUE NIGHT...WITH DIMINISHING -SHRA CHANCES.
COOLER AIRMASS/WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN ITS
WAKE FOR WHAT SHOULD BE A DRY DAY WED. TIMING DIFFERENCES BY THU
IMPACT POTENTIAL -SHRA CHANCES SPREADING BACK INTO THE FCST AREA.
GIVEN LESSER CONFIDENCE OUT ON DAY 7...STAYED WITH THE MODEL/
ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS. GIVEN ALL THE LOWER LEVEL DETAIL DIFFERENCES IN
DAYS 4-7...THE BLEND OF THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HIGHS/LOWS
FOR MON-THU LOOK WELL TRENDED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 602 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014
WHILE THE CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED OUT OF KRST...THE BACK EDGE HAS YET
TO REACH KLSE. GIVEN THE CURRENT MOVEMENT OF THE CLOUDS...KLSE MAY
NOT CLEAR OUT UNTIL 02Z OR SO AND EXPECT THE IFR CEILINGS WITH
MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITIES TO CONTINUE UNTIL THE CLEARING ARRIVES.
ONCE THE CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED OUT...IT SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR
DENSE FOG TO FORM OVERNIGHT. PLENTY OF MOISTURE IS IN PLACE FROM
THE RAIN AND WITH LIGHT WINDS AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS...EXPECT TO SEE MVFR VISIBILITIES REDEVELOP AT BOTH
SITES BY 06Z AND THEN GO DOWN TO IFR BY 08Z WITH A VISIBILITY AS
LOW AS 1/4SM. THE 23.20Z RAP SUGGESTS CONDITIONS WILL START TO
IMPROVE AT KRST SHORTLY AFTER 12Z AS DRYING ALOFT DEVELOPS ALONG
WITH AN INCREASE IN THE SURFACE WINDS TO BREAK UP THE FOG. THESE
CONDITIONS MAY NOT DEVELOP OVER KLSE UNTIL MID MORNING SO HAVE
MAINTAINED THE IFR CONDITIONS UNTIL 15Z. BOTH SITES THEN GO TO VFR
CONDITIONS BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. THE 23.18Z NAM
INDICATES THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR CEILINGS REDEVELOPING FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN A ZONE OF 1-3
UBAR/S OF UP GLIDE ON THE 300K ISENTROPIC SURFACE. IT RAPIDLY
INCREASES THE MOISTURE OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH...BUT DOES SO WITHOUT THE AID OF ANY MOISTURE ADVECTION
INTO THE AREA. THE 23.12Z GFS DOES NOT SHOW THIS RAPID MOISTURE
INCREASE AND FOR NOW HAVE JUST OPTED TO SHOW SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS
WITH THIS FEATURE.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR WIZ017-029-032>034-
041>044-053>055-061.
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR MNZ079-086>088-
094>096.
IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR IAZ008>011-018-019-
029-030.
&&
$$
UPDATE...04
SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1254 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1013 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS
AFTERNOON AND LINGER THEM INTO THIS EVENING...AHEAD OF THE MAIN
BAND OF PRECIP EXPECTED TO MOVE IN LATER TONIGHT. IF RAIN SHOWERS
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON THEY WILL BE ON THE LEADING EDGE OF 850 MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT. THERE IS SOME WEAK ELEVATED CAPE TO WORK WITH
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING RAISING THE CONCERN FOR AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. THE NAM FORECAST SOUNDING FROM KLSE
IS SHOWING AROUND 350 J/KG WHEN LIFTING FROM 850 MB. IF THIS CAPE
IS REALIZED...WE COULD SEE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES. CONFIDENCE IS
LOW ON ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING SO WILL NOT INCLUDE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AT
THIS TIME. THE REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
AT 3 AM...A 1030 MB SURFACE HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER ONTARIO. THIS
HAS PRODUCED LIGHT WINDS ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN AND CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS HAS ALLOWED DENSE
VALLEY FOG TO DEVELOP IN THE WISCONSIN AND KICKAPOO RIVER VALLEYS.
MEANWHILE THE RAP SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE WINDS
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING. HOWEVER WE MAY HAVE JUST ENOUGH TIME TO BUILD A SHALLOW
NOCTURNAL INVERSION THAT MAY ALLOW SOME STRATUS AND SOME PATCHY
VALLEY FOG TO DEVELOP IN THE MISSISSIPPI CHANNEL AND ITS
TRIBUTARIES.
FOR TONIGHT...THE 22.00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THIS RESULTS...IN
MODERATE TO STRONG 900 TO 800 MB FRONTOGENESIS TO DEVELOP ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR AND THERE WILL MODERATE
850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT. OVERALL LIKE THE TIMING OF NMM AND
ARW...SO TRENDED THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TOWARD THEM FOR
TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
ON THURSDAY...THE 22.00Z MODELS ARE VERY SIMILAR WITH THE FASTER
MOVEMENT OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION. THIS RESULT
IN A RAPID DECREASE IN THE 900 TO 800 MB FRONTOGENESIS AND THE
850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT MOVING EAST OF THE AREA BY THE
AFTERNOON. THIS RESULTS IN A QUICK DECREASE IN THE PRECIPITATION
FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS
SEEMS TO BE HANDLED REALLY WELL IN THE ARW AND NMM...SO TRENDED
PRECIPITATION TIMING AND PLACEMENT CLOSER TO THEM. ALSO MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW A RAPID DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER ALONG AND WEST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS PROVIDES A BETTER
OPPORTUNITY THAT WE COULD POTENTIALLY SEE THE PARTIAL SOLAR
ECLIPSE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.
ON FRIDAY...ALL OF THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA. THE NAM
SOUNDINGS HAVE A MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILE AND STRONGER 850 MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT THAN THE GFS...GEM...AND ECMWF. AS A RESULT...
IT GENERATES SHOWERS AND THE OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE DRY. DUE TO
THIS...OPTED TO KEEP THE PERIOD DRY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB 2
TO 4C WARMER THAN THURSDAY. MIXING 875 MB TEMPERATURES TO THE
SURFACE RESULTS IN TEMPERATURES MUCH CLOSER TO THE 22.03Z SREF
THAN THE SUPER BLEND...SO TRENDED THEM MORE TOWARD THE LATTER.
FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG 150 KNOT
200 MB JET ROUNDING THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE. THE 21.12Z NAEFS STANDARDIZED ANOMALY SHOWED THAT A JET
THIS STRONG HAD A RETURN FREQUENCY OF ONCE IN EVERY 5 YEARS. THIS
RESULTS IN A RETROGRESSION OF THIS RIDGE WHICH IN TURN ALLOWS
COOLER 850 MB TEMPERATURES TO MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION. THERE IS
A 6 TO 8C DROP ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN AND 4 TO 6C ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA. DUE TO THIS...LOWERED THE
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ANYWHERE FROM 2 TO 6 DEGREES.
ON SUNDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS THE
AREA AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST INTO THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES. 850 MB TEMPERATURES RISE 6 TO 8C INTO THE 10C TO 14C
RANGE. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 1.8 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL. THE SUPER BLEND LOOKS TOO COLD...SO RAISED THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO THE BIAS CORRECTED GFS AND ECMWF.
FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THE MODELS ARE DIFFERING ON THE
TRACK OF A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION. THE GFS IS MUCH FURTHER THAN EITHER THE ECMWF OR GEM. DUE
TO THIS...STAYED CLOSED TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS FOR TEMPERATURES
AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
A TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING RAIN AND
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO THE TAF SITES. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 27 KTS
AT KRST AND 16 KTS AT KLSE. A MID CLOUD DECK...WITH BASES AROUND
6KFT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY
GENERATE A FEW SPRINKLES AS IT MOVES THROUGH...HOWEVER IT APPEARS
UNLIKELY THAT WE WILL SEE ANY PRECIP OUT OF THIS DECK. RAIN WILL
MOVE INTO KRST AROUND 06Z TONIGHT WITH CLOUD BASES LOWERING TO
AROUND 3500 FT...THEN FALLING THROUGH 9Z TO AROUND 800 FT. AT
KLSE...CLOUD BASES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO AROUND 4KFT AROUND 08Z
THEN LOWER TO AROUND 1500 FT BY 12Z. THE IFR MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON
TOMORROW AS THE SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WETENKAMP
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...WETENKAMP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1246 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
THE LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A LARGE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM STRETCHING FROM QUEBEC TO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES TO THE GULF COAST. OUTSIDE OF A SMALL AREA OF BROKEN STRATUS
AROUND CHICAGO...CLEAR SKIES EXIST ACROSS THE REGION THANKS TO
STRONG SUBSIDENCE BENEATH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
IS MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND THE NORTHWEST GREAT PLAINS WHERE A
FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE OCCURRING. AS THIS STORM SYSTEM MOVES
EAST...PRECIP CHANCES AND TIMING ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.
TODAY...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES...BUT VERY DRY AIR WILL EXIST THROUGH THE COLUMN.
ALTHOUGH WILL SEE CIRRUS BEGIN TO INVADE THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE STATE DURING THE AFTERNOON...SHOULD SEE SUNNY SKIES
WITH HIGHS A FEW DEGREES WARMER IN MANY LOCATIONS THAN YESTERDAY.
TONIGHT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE.
THE VERY DRY AIR WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD TO START THE EVENING BUT
SHOULD SEE CLOUDS INCREASE MID TO LATE EVENING OVER NORTH-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. MODELS INDICATE
A FEW SHOWERS COULD MOVE INTO NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN AROUND
MIDNIGHT IN THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION REGIME AND LEFT A SMALL
CHANCE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SCENARIO. BUT BETTER CHANCES WILL MOVE
INTO THE ROUTE 39/51 CORRIDOR LATE. THE INCREASING CLOUDS AND
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT CALLS FOR A WARMER NIGHT. LOWS RANGING
FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTHEAST TO AROUND 40 WEST.
THURSDAY...THE SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE STATE. A BAND OF RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT WITH
PRECIP MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE
MORNING AND INTO EASTERN WISCONSIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. VARIOUS
MODELS MOVE THE PRECIP THROUGH THE REGION AT DIFFERENT TIMES (DUE TO
DIFFERENT HANDLING OF THE SPLITTING OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY)...SO THERE
IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO TIMING. REGARDLESS...AS THE RAIN
MOVES INTO MORE STABLE AIR...INTENSITY AND COVERAGE SHOULD GRADUALLY
WANE THROUGH THE DAY. WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCES DURING THE
MORNING CONSEQUENTLY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THE MOST IN EASTERN
WISCONSIN BEFORE THE RAIN ARRIVES AND ADJUSTED TEMPS A BIT.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
SHOWERS WILL EXIT THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT MOVE INTO MICHIGAN. THE NAM
FORECASTS ADDITIONAL SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE MUCH WEAKER
WITH THE SYSTEM AND ARE DRY. LEFT OUT ANY PRECIPITATION FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT. DRY NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
RISING HEIGHTS SHOULD RESULT IN SURFACE TEMPERATURES CLIMBING
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.
SPLIT FLOW FORECAST BY MODELS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
SOME JET ENERGY MOVING BY TO THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
PROVIDING UPPER SUPPORT FOR POSSIBLE ELEVATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF A WARM FRONT. JET ENERGY LIFTING OUT OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS IS FORECAST TO PRODUCE A SYNOPTIC SCALE SYSTEM
LIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE ARE BIG DIFFERENCES IN TRACK AND
INTENSITY BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS RELATED TO THE AMOUNT OF
PHASING WITH NORTHERN STREAM JET ENERGY.
AFTER THAT IT LOOKS LIKE DRY NORTHWEST FLOW RETURNS FOR THE MIDDLE
AND END OF NEXT WEEK WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. OVERALL IT
LOOKS LIKE A SEASONABLE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NOVEMBER
WITH MODERATE AMPLITUDE PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
OUTSIDE OF SCT CU IN FAR EASTERN WISC...GOOD FLYING CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
TONIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WHICH WILL BRING IN IFR CIGS
FROM W TO E AFTER 12Z THURSDAY.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......JKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1013 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1013 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS
AFTERNOON AND LINGER THEM INTO THIS EVENING...AHEAD OF THE MAIN
BAND OF PRECIP EXPECTED TO MOVE IN LATER TONIGHT. IF RAIN SHOWERS
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON THEY WILL BE ON THE LEADING EDGE OF 850 MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT. THERE IS SOME WEAK ELEVATED CAPE TO WORK WITH
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING RAISING THE CONCERN FOR AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. THE NAM FORECAST SOUNDING FROM KLSE
IS SHOWING AROUND 350 J/KG WHEN LIFTING FROM 850 MB. IF THIS CAPE
IS REALIZED...WE COULD SEE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES. CONFIDENCE IS
LOW ON ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING SO WILL NOT INCLUDE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AT
THIS TIME. THE REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
AT 3 AM...A 1030 MB SURFACE HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER ONTARIO. THIS
HAS PRODUCED LIGHT WINDS ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN AND CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS HAS ALLOWED DENSE
VALLEY FOG TO DEVELOP IN THE WISCONSIN AND KICKAPOO RIVER VALLEYS.
MEANWHILE THE RAP SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE WINDS
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING. HOWEVER WE MAY HAVE JUST ENOUGH TIME TO BUILD A SHALLOW
NOCTURNAL INVERSION THAT MAY ALLOW SOME STRATUS AND SOME PATCHY
VALLEY FOG TO DEVELOP IN THE MISSISSIPPI CHANNEL AND ITS
TRIBUTARIES.
FOR TONIGHT...THE 22.00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THIS RESULTS...IN
MODERATE TO STRONG 900 TO 800 MB FRONTOGENESIS TO DEVELOP ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR AND THERE WILL MODERATE
850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT. OVERALL LIKE THE TIMING OF NMM AND
ARW...SO TRENDED THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TOWARD THEM FOR
TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
ON THURSDAY...THE 22.00Z MODELS ARE VERY SIMILAR WITH THE FASTER
MOVEMENT OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION. THIS RESULT
IN A RAPID DECREASE IN THE 900 TO 800 MB FRONTOGENESIS AND THE
850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT MOVING EAST OF THE AREA BY THE
AFTERNOON. THIS RESULTS IN A QUICK DECREASE IN THE PRECIPITATION
FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS
SEEMS TO BE HANDLED REALLY WELL IN THE ARW AND NMM...SO TRENDED
PRECIPITATION TIMING AND PLACEMENT CLOSER TO THEM. ALSO MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW A RAPID DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER ALONG AND WEST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS PROVIDES A BETTER
OPPORTUNITY THAT WE COULD POTENTIALLY SEE THE PARTIAL SOLAR
ECLIPSE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.
ON FRIDAY...ALL OF THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA. THE NAM
SOUNDINGS HAVE A MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILE AND STRONGER 850 MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT THAN THE GFS...GEM...AND ECMWF. AS A RESULT...
IT GENERATES SHOWERS AND THE OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE DRY. DUE TO
THIS...OPTED TO KEEP THE PERIOD DRY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB 2
TO 4C WARMER THAN THURSDAY. MIXING 875 MB TEMPERATURES TO THE
SURFACE RESULTS IN TEMPERATURES MUCH CLOSER TO THE 22.03Z SREF
THAN THE SUPER BLEND...SO TRENDED THEM MORE TOWARD THE LATTER.
FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG 150 KNOT
200 MB JET ROUNDING THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE. THE 21.12Z NAEFS STANDARDIZED ANOMALY SHOWED THAT A JET
THIS STRONG HAD A RETURN FREQUENCY OF ONCE IN EVERY 5 YEARS. THIS
RESULTS IN A RETROGRESSION OF THIS RIDGE WHICH IN TURN ALLOWS
COOLER 850 MB TEMPERATURES TO MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION. THERE IS
A 6 TO 8C DROP ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN AND 4 TO 6C ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA. DUE TO THIS...LOWERED THE
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ANYWHERE FROM 2 TO 6 DEGREES.
ON SUNDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS THE
AREA AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST INTO THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES. 850 MB TEMPERATURES RISE 6 TO 8C INTO THE 10C TO 14C
RANGE. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 1.8 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL. THE SUPER BLEND LOOKS TOO COLD...SO RAISED THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO THE BIAS CORRECTED GFS AND ECMWF.
FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THE MODELS ARE DIFFERING ON THE
TRACK OF A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION. THE GFS IS MUCH FURTHER THAN EITHER THE ECMWF OR GEM. DUE
TO THIS...STAYED CLOSED TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS FOR TEMPERATURES
AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
GRADIENT STRONG ENOUGH THIS MORNING TO PREVENT FOG FROM FORMING AT
KLSE BUT STILL SEEING SOME IN FAVORED SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN VALLEYS
WITH EAST-WEST ORIENTATION.
MAIN FOCUS FOR AVIATION IS APPROACHING WAVE AND IMPACT ON CEILINGS
TONIGHT AS RAIN MOVES IN. THERE IS A BAND OF HIGHER BASED STRATUS IN
MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION ZONE MOVING ACROSS MINNESOTA THIS
MORNING BUT STILL EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL UNTIL TONIGHT
WHEN SATURATION OCCURS WITH LIFT AND RAIN MOVES IN. RESTRICTIONS TO
VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED...BUT SOME GUIDANCE /22.00Z NAM
AND 22.03Z SREF SUGGESTS MVFR AND PERHAPS LIMITED IFR CEILINGS ARE
POSSIBLE DURING TROUGH PASSAGE. CONFIDENCE NOT GREAT BUT WILL
INTRODUCE CHANCE FOR THAT DURING PEAK OF RAIN PERIODS OVERNIGHT.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WETENKAMP
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...SHEA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
625 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
AT 3 AM...A 1030 MB SURFACE HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER ONTARIO. THIS
HAS PRODUCED LIGHT WINDS ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN AND CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS HAS ALLOWED DENSE
VALLEY FOG TO DEVELOP IN THE WISCONSIN AND KICKAPOO RIVER VALLEYS.
MEANWHILE THE RAP SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE WINDS
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING. HOWEVER WE MAY HAVE JUST ENOUGH TIME TO BUILD A SHALLOW
NOCTURNAL INVERSION THAT MAY ALLOW SOME STRATUS AND SOME PATCHY
VALLEY FOG TO DEVELOP IN THE MISSISSIPPI CHANNEL AND ITS
TRIBUTARIES.
FOR TONIGHT...THE 22.00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THIS RESULTS...IN
MODERATE TO STRONG 900 TO 800 MB FRONTOGENESIS TO DEVELOP ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR AND THERE WILL MODERATE
850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT. OVERALL LIKE THE TIMING OF NMM AND
ARW...SO TRENDED THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TOWARD THEM FOR
TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
ON THURSDAY...THE 22.00Z MODELS ARE VERY SIMILAR WITH THE FASTER
MOVEMENT OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION. THIS RESULT
IN A RAPID DECREASE IN THE 900 TO 800 MB FRONTOGENESIS AND THE
850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT MOVING EAST OF THE AREA BY THE
AFTERNOON. THIS RESULTS IN A QUICK DECREASE IN THE PRECIPITATION
FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS
SEEMS TO BE HANDLED REALLY WELL IN THE ARW AND NMM...SO TRENDED
PRECIPITATION TIMING AND PLACEMENT CLOSER TO THEM. ALSO MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW A RAPID DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER ALONG AND WEST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS PROVIDES A BETTER
OPPORTUNITY THAT WE COULD POTENTIALLY SEE THE PARTIAL SOLAR
ECLIPSE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.
ON FRIDAY...ALL OF THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA. THE NAM
SOUNDINGS HAVE A MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILE AND STRONGER 850 MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT THAN THE GFS...GEM...AND ECMWF. AS A RESULT...
IT GENERATES SHOWERS AND THE OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE DRY. DUE TO
THIS...OPTED TO KEEP THE PERIOD DRY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB 2
TO 4C WARMER THAN THURSDAY. MIXING 875 MB TEMPERATURES TO THE
SURFACE RESULTS IN TEMPERATURES MUCH CLOSER TO THE 22.03Z SREF
THAN THE SUPER BLEND...SO TRENDED THEM MORE TOWARD THE LATTER.
FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG 150 KNOT
200 MB JET ROUNDING THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE. THE 21.12Z NAEFS STANDARDIZED ANOMALY SHOWED THAT A JET
THIS STRONG HAD A RETURN FREQUENCY OF ONCE IN EVERY 5 YEARS. THIS
RESULTS IN A RETROGRESSION OF THIS RIDGE WHICH IN TURN ALLOWS
COOLER 850 MB TEMPERATURES TO MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION. THERE IS
A 6 TO 8C DROP ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN AND 4 TO 6C ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA. DUE TO THIS...LOWERED THE
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ANYWHERE FROM 2 TO 6 DEGREES.
ON SUNDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS THE
AREA AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST INTO THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES. 850 MB TEMPERATURES RISE 6 TO 8C INTO THE 10C TO 14C
RANGE. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 1.8 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL. THE SUPER BLEND LOOKS TOO COLD...SO RAISED THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO THE BIAS CORRECTED GFS AND ECMWF.
FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THE MODELS ARE DIFFERING ON THE
TRACK OF A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION. THE GFS IS MUCH FURTHER THAN EITHER THE ECMWF OR GEM. DUE
TO THIS...STAYED CLOSED TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS FOR TEMPERATURES
AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
GRADIENT STRONG ENOUGH THIS MORNING TO PREVENT FOG FROM FORMING AT
KLSE BUT STILL SEEING SOME IN FAVORED SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN VALLEYS
WITH EAST-WEST ORIENTATION.
MAIN FOCUS FOR AVIATION IS APPROACHING WAVE AND IMPACT ON CEILINGS
TONIGHT AS RAIN MOVES IN. THERE IS A BAND OF HIGHER BASED STRATUS IN
MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION ZONE MOVING ACROSS MINNESOTA THIS
MORNING BUT STILL EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL UNTIL TONIGHT
WHEN SATURATION OCCURS WITH LIFT AND RAIN MOVES IN. RESTRICTIONS TO
VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED...BUT SOME GUIDANCE /22.00Z NAM
AND 22.03Z SREF SUGGESTS MVFR AND PERHAPS LIMITED IFR CEILINGS ARE
POSSIBLE DURING TROUGH PASSAGE. CONFIDENCE NOT GREAT BUT WILL
INTRODUCE CHANCE FOR THAT DURING PEAK OF RAIN PERIODS OVERNIGHT.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...SHEA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
611 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
THE LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A LARGE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM STRETCHING FROM QUEBEC TO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES TO THE GULF COAST. OUTSIDE OF A SMALL AREA OF BROKEN STRATUS
AROUND CHICAGO...CLEAR SKIES EXIST ACROSS THE REGION THANKS TO
STRONG SUBSIDENCE BENEATH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
IS MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND THE NORTHWEST GREAT PLAINS WHERE A
FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE OCCURRING. AS THIS STORM SYSTEM MOVES
EAST...PRECIP CHANCES AND TIMING ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.
TODAY...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES...BUT VERY DRY AIR WILL EXIST THROUGH THE COLUMN.
ALTHOUGH WILL SEE CIRRUS BEGIN TO INVADE THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE STATE DURING THE AFTERNOON...SHOULD SEE SUNNY SKIES
WITH HIGHS A FEW DEGREES WARMER IN MANY LOCATIONS THAN YESTERDAY.
TONIGHT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE.
THE VERY DRY AIR WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD TO START THE EVENING BUT
SHOULD SEE CLOUDS INCREASE MID TO LATE EVENING OVER NORTH-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. MODELS INDICATE
A FEW SHOWERS COULD MOVE INTO NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN AROUND
MIDNIGHT IN THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION REGIME AND LEFT A SMALL
CHANCE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SCENARIO. BUT BETTER CHANCES WILL MOVE
INTO THE ROUTE 39/51 CORRIDOR LATE. THE INCREASING CLOUDS AND
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT CALLS FOR A WARMER NIGHT. LOWS RANGING
FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTHEAST TO AROUND 40 WEST.
THURSDAY...THE SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE STATE. A BAND OF RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT WITH
PRECIP MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE
MORNING AND INTO EASTERN WISCONSIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. VARIOUS
MODELS MOVE THE PRECIP THROUGH THE REGION AT DIFFERENT TIMES (DUE TO
DIFFERENT HANDLING OF THE SPLITTING OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY)...SO THERE
IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO TIMING. REGARDLESS...AS THE RAIN
MOVES INTO MORE STABLE AIR...INTENSITY AND COVERAGE SHOULD GRADUALLY
WANE THROUGH THE DAY. WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCES DURING THE
MORNING CONSEQUENTLY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THE MOST IN EASTERN
WISCONSIN BEFORE THE RAIN ARRIVES AND ADJUSTED TEMPS A BIT.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
SHOWERS WILL EXIT THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT MOVE INTO MICHIGAN. THE NAM
FORECASTS ADDITIONAL SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE MUCH WEAKER
WITH THE SYSTEM AND ARE DRY. LEFT OUT ANY PRECIPITATION FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT. DRY NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
RISING HEIGHTS SHOULD RESULT IN SURFACE TEMPERATURES CLIMBING
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.
SPLIT FLOW FORECAST BY MODELS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
SOME JET ENERGY MOVING BY TO THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
PROVIDING UPPER SUPPORT FOR POSSIBLE ELEVATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF A WARM FRONT. JET ENERGY LIFTING OUT OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS IS FORECAST TO PRODUCE A SYNOPTIC SCALE SYSTEM
LIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE ARE BIG DIFFERENCES IN TRACK AND
INTENSITY BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS RELATED TO THE AMOUNT OF
PHASING WITH NORTHERN STREAM JET ENERGY.
AFTER THAT IT LOOKS LIKE DRY NORTHWEST FLOW RETURNS FOR THE MIDDLE
AND END OF NEXT WEEK WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. OVERALL IT
LOOKS LIKE A SEASONABLE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NOVEMBER
WITH MODERATE AMPLITUDE PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 610 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
GOOD FLYING WEATHER WILL BE PRESENT TODAY ACROSS THE REGION THANKS
TO CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT
FROM WEST TO EAST. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR...BUT ANTICIPATE CIGS
WILL BE FALLING BETWEEN 5000-8000 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. LIGHT RAIN MAY
BE PUSHING INTO CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN AROUND THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......MPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
352 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
AT 3 AM...A 1030 MB SURFACE HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER ONTARIO. THIS
HAS PRODUCED LIGHT WINDS ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN AND CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS HAS ALLOWED DENSE
VALLEY FOG TO DEVELOP IN THE WISCONSIN AND KICKAPOO RIVER VALLEYS.
MEANWHILE THE RAP SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE WINDS
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING. HOWEVER WE MAY HAVE JUST ENOUGH TIME TO BUILD A SHALLOW
NOCTURNAL INVERSION THAT MAY ALLOW SOME STRATUS AND SOME PATCHY
VALLEY FOG TO DEVELOP IN THE MISSISSIPPI CHANNEL AND ITS
TRIBUTARIES.
FOR TONIGHT...THE 22.00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THIS RESULTS...IN
MODERATE TO STRONG 900 TO 800 MB FRONTOGENESIS TO DEVELOP ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR AND THERE WILL MODERATE
850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT. OVERALL LIKE THE TIMING OF NMM AND
ARW...SO TRENDED THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TOWARD THEM FOR
TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
ON THURSDAY...THE 22.00Z MODELS ARE VERY SIMILAR WITH THE FASTER
MOVEMENT OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION. THIS RESULT
IN A RAPID DECREASE IN THE 900 TO 800 MB FRONTOGENESIS AND THE
850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT MOVING EAST OF THE AREA BY THE
AFTERNOON. THIS RESULTS IN A QUICK DECREASE IN THE PRECIPITATION
FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS
SEEMS TO BE HANDLED REALLY WELL IN THE ARW AND NMM...SO TRENDED
PRECIPITATION TIMING AND PLACEMENT CLOSER TO THEM. ALSO MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW A RAPID DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER ALONG AND WEST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS PROVIDES A BETTER
OPPORTUNITY THAT WE COULD POTENTIALLY SEE THE PARTIAL SOLAR
ECLIPSE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.
ON FRIDAY...ALL OF THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA. THE NAM
SOUNDINGS HAVE A MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILE AND STRONGER 850 MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT THAN THE GFS...GEM...AND ECMWF. AS A RESULT...
IT GENERATES SHOWERS AND THE OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE DRY. DUE TO
THIS...OPTED TO KEEP THE PERIOD DRY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB 2
TO 4C WARMER THAN THURSDAY. MIXING 875 MB TEMPERATURES TO THE
SURFACE RESULTS IN TEMPERATURES MUCH CLOSER TO THE 22.03Z SREF
THAN THE SUPER BLEND...SO TRENDED THEM MORE TOWARD THE LATTER.
FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG 150 KNOT
200 MB JET ROUNDING THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE. THE 21.12Z NAEFS STANDARDIZED ANOMALY SHOWED THAT A JET
THIS STRONG HAD A RETURN FREQUENCY OF ONCE IN EVERY 5 YEARS. THIS
RESULTS IN A RETROGRESSION OF THIS RIDGE WHICH IN TURN ALLOWS
COOLER 850 MB TEMPERATURES TO MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION. THERE IS
A 6 TO 8C DROP ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN AND 4 TO 6C ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA. DUE TO THIS...LOWERED THE
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ANYWHERE FROM 2 TO 6 DEGREES.
ON SUNDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS THE
AREA AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST INTO THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES. 850 MB TEMPERATURES RISE 6 TO 8C INTO THE 10C TO 14C
RANGE. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 1.8 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL. THE SUPER BLEND LOOKS TOO COLD...SO RAISED THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO THE BIAS CORRECTED GFS AND ECMWF.
FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THE MODELS ARE DIFFERING ON THE
TRACK OF A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION. THE GFS IS MUCH FURTHER THAN EITHER THE ECMWF OR GEM. DUE
TO THIS...STAYED CLOSED TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS FOR TEMPERATURES
AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014
SOME CONCERN FOR VALLEY FOG AT KLSE LATE TONIGHT. BOTH THE 22.00Z
NAM AND 22.03Z RAP SHOW SATURATION OCCURRING AT THE SURFACE BUT
SUGGEST THE WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT
RANGE. THE FLAG HERE AT THE OFFICE IS MOVING A LITTLE BIT BUT NOT
AS MUCH AS WOULD BE ANTICIPATED BASED ON THE MODEL WINDS AND A BIT
OF A HAZE LAYER APPEARS TO BE SHOWING UP OVER THE CITY. AS THE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN OVERNIGHT...WOULD
EXPECT THE WINDS ALOFT TO CONTINUE SLOWLY INCREASING WHICH SHOULD
CREATE ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP THE FOG FROM FORMING.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT THAT HIGH AND WILL INCLUDE A
BCFG TO INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME FOG. THE GRADIENT SHOULD
PRODUCE DECENT SUSTAINED SOUTH WINDS WEDNESDAY AND WITH GOOD
MIXING...GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KNOTS SHOULD OCCUR AT KRST. AS
THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES WEDNESDAY EVENING...SHOULD START TO SEE
ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE ARRIVE FOR A VFR CEILING TO FORM AT
KRST. THE RAIN WITH THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...04
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
THE LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A LARGE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM STRETCHING FROM QUEBEC TO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES TO THE GULF COAST. OUTSIDE OF A SMALL AREA OF BROKEN STRATUS
AROUND CHICAGO...CLEAR SKIES EXIST ACROSS THE REGION THANKS TO
STRONG SUBSIDENCE BENEATH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
IS MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND THE NORTHWEST GREAT PLAINS WHERE A
FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE OCCURRING. AS THIS STORM SYSTEM MOVES
EAST...PRECIP CHANCES AND TIMING ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.
TODAY...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES...BUT VERY DRY AIR WILL EXIST THROUGH THE COLUMN.
ALTHOUGH WILL SEE CIRRUS BEGIN TO INVADE THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE STATE DURING THE AFTERNOON...SHOULD SEE SUNNY SKIES
WITH HIGHS A FEW DEGREES WARMER IN MANY LOCATIONS THAN YESTERDAY.
TONIGHT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE.
THE VERY DRY AIR WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD TO START THE EVENING BUT
SHOULD SEE CLOUDS INCREASE MID TO LATE EVENING OVER NORTH-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. MODELS INDICATE
A FEW SHOWERS COULD MOVE INTO NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN AROUND
MIDNIGHT IN THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION REGIME AND LEFT A SMALL
CHANCE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SCENARIO. BUT BETTER CHANCES WILL MOVE
INTO THE ROUTE 39/51 CORRIDOR LATE. THE INCREASING CLOUDS AND
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT CALLS FOR A WARMER NIGHT. LOWS RANGING
FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTHEAST TO AROUND 40 WEST.
THURSDAY...THE SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE STATE. A BAND OF RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT WITH
PRECIP MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE
MORNING AND INTO EASTERN WISCONSIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. VARIOUS
MODELS MOVE THE PRECIP THROUGH THE REGION AT DIFFERENT TIMES (DUE TO
DIFFERENT HANDLING OF THE SPLITTING OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY)...SO THERE
IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO TIMING. REGARDLESS...AS THE RAIN
MOVES INTO MORE STABLE AIR...INTENSITY AND COVERAGE SHOULD GRADUALLY
WANE THROUGH THE DAY. WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCES DURING THE
MORNING CONSEQUENTLY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THE MOST IN EASTERN
WISCONSIN BEFORE THE RAIN ARRIVES AND ADJUSTED TEMPS A BIT.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
SHOWERS WILL EXIT THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT MOVE INTO MICHIGAN. THE NAM
FORECASTS ADDITIONAL SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE MUCH WEAKER
WITH THE SYSTEM AND ARE DRY. LEFT OUT ANY PRECIPITATION FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT. DRY NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
RISING HEIGHTS SHOULD RESULT IN SURFACE TEMPERATURES CLIMBING
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.
SPLIT FLOW FORECAST BY MODELS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
SOME JET ENERGY MOVING BY TO THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
PROVIDING UPPER SUPPORT FOR POSSIBLE ELEVATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF A WARM FRONT. JET ENERGY LIFTING OUT OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS IS FORECAST TO PRODUCE A SYNOPTIC SCALE SYSTEM
LIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE ARE BIG DIFFERENCES IN TRACK AND
INTENSITY BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS RELATED TO THE AMOUNT OF
PHASING WITH NORTHERN STREAM JET ENERGY.
AFTER THAT IT LOOKS LIKE DRY NORTHWEST FLOW RETURNS FOR THE MIDDLE
AND END OF NEXT WEEK WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. OVERALL IT
LOOKS LIKE A SEASONABLE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NOVEMBER
WITH MODERATE AMPLITUDE PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 955 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PATCHY MVFR FOG BETWEEN 09Z AND 13Z...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......TDH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1152 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014
QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRACKS EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
THE LAST CHUNK OF STRATUS IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN HAS QUICKLY BEEN
DISSIPATING THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL COMPLETELY CLEAR OUT BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE COMING AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
INCREASING IN THE LOW LEVELS...WHICH SHOULD MITIGATE HOW
WIDESPREAD ANY RIVER VALLEY FOG CAN GET TONIGHT.
THE MAIN FOCUS INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON IS WITH WHETHER ANY
SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL FALL IN A BAND OF LOW LEVEL
WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH. 21.12Z NAM/GFS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME SATURATION OCCURRING BETWEEN
850-750MB THOUGH ANY LIFT IS VERY WEAK AND MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE THE SHOWERS. WITH CONFIDENCE NOT VERY HIGH IN WHETHER
ANYTHING WILL FORM...HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON TOMORROW.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014
THE TWO MAIN STORIES GOING INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS WITH THE
RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY
THE WARMUP COMING THIS WEEKEND.
AS FOR THE RAIN CHANCES...CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT THERE
WILL BE SOME RAIN THAT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...BUT THE QUESTION IS WITH HOW LONG IT WILL
LAST/ACCUMULATE. BEYOND THE INITIAL 850-750MB WARM AIR
ADVECTION...THE LIFT COMES IN A FAIRLY NARROW BAND ALONG A
700-500MB TROUGH. THERE IS SOME FRONTOGENESIS THERE AS WELL IN THE
MID LEVELS...BUT THE BETTER PV ADVECTION APPEARS TO TRACK TO THE
NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION AS THE MAIN TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE 21.12Z ECMWF APPEARS TO BE THE
STRONGEST WITH ITS LIFT SINCE IT BREAKS OFF A PIECE OF THE 500MB
TROUGH AND PROPAGATES IT FURTHER SOUTHEAST COMPARED TO THE OTHER
GUIDANCE. HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH A TENTH OF AN INCH TO UNDER A
HALF INCH OF QPF FOR THIS SYSTEM SINCE THE MOISTURE FEED IS IN
THIS NARROW CHANNEL. THE MAIN TRENDS WITH THE 21.12Z GUIDANCE IS
TO SPEED UP THE CLEARING OF THE RAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
21.12Z ECMWF THE SLOWEST AND THE MAIN REASON THAT THERE EVEN ARE
ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES LEFT IN THE FORECAST AFTER 18Z THURSDAY.
ALL SIGNS CONTINUE TO POINT TO A WARM WEEKEND AHEAD...PARTICULARLY
ON SUNDAY WHEN STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL ADVECTION KICK IN AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES FOR TEMPERATURES AT
925/850MB ARE NOT T00 HIGH AT +1 TO +2...BUT STILL HELP TO SIGNAL
THAT CONDITIONS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL. HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF
KEEPING FORECAST HIGHS ABOVE GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOW
70S.
THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN ON MONDAY/TUESDAY AND SHOULD BE THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR SOME WIDESPREAD HEAVIER RAINS AS A SURFACE LOW RUNS UP
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
SOME TIMING/INTENSITY DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 21.12Z GFS/ECMWF BUT
THE OVERALL MESSAGE IS SIMILAR.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014
SOME CONCERN FOR VALLEY FOG AT KLSE LATE TONIGHT. BOTH THE 22.00Z
NAM AND 22.03Z RAP SHOW SATURATION OCCURRING AT THE SURFACE BUT
SUGGEST THE WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT
RANGE. THE FLAG HERE AT THE OFFICE IS MOVING A LITTLE BIT BUT NOT
AS MUCH AS WOULD BE ANTICIPATED BASED ON THE MODEL WINDS AND A BIT
OF A HAZE LAYER APPEARS TO BE SHOWING UP OVER THE CITY. AS THE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN OVERNIGHT...WOULD
EXPECT THE WINDS ALOFT TO CONTINUE SLOWLY INCREASING WHICH SHOULD
CREATE ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP THE FOG FROM FORMING.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT THAT HIGH AND WILL INCLUDE A
BCFG TO INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME FOG. THE GRADIENT SHOULD
PRODUCE DECENT SUSTAINED SOUTH WINDS WEDNESDAY AND WITH GOOD
MIXING...GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KNOTS SHOULD OCCUR AT KRST. AS
THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES WEDNESDAY EVENING...SHOULD START TO SEE
ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE ARRIVE FOR A VFR CEILING TO FORM AT
KRST. THE RAIN WITH THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM...HALBACH
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
615 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014
DRY AND MILD WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST ALL OF THE
SHORT TERM (TNGT THRU SAT MRNG). THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO
SLOWLY BUILDING HEIGHTS AND A DOMINANT LARGE-SCALE RIDGE ACROSS
THE CNTRL CONUS. THE MAIN ITEMS OF INTEREST WILL BE GUSTY
SOUTHWEST-WEST WINDS AND RELATIVELY WARM WEATHER.
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGES AND RAP MODEL ANALYSES INDICATED A
150-KT 300-MB JET CROSSING OVER THE PACIFIC NW WITH CONSIDERABLE
MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF THE NWRN CONUS. ALTHOUGH A
THICK PATCH OF CIRRUS MOVED ACROSS THE CWA EARLIER TODAY...THE WATER
VAPOR TRAJECTORY SUGGESTS THE BULK OF THE CIRRUS WILL REMAIN NW OF
THE CWA...ESPECIALLY LATE TNGT AND FRI AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS.
UNTIL THEN...EXPECT SOME PERIODIC DENSE CIRRUS PATCHES AS THE JET
INTERACTS WITH THE MOUNTAINS. BUFKIT TIME-SECTIONS FOR KCYS SUPPORT
THIS AS WELL.
GUSTY SOUTHWEST-WINDS WILL OCCUR ESPECIALLY NEAR RIDGE TOPS TNGT AS
700-MB FLOW IS 30-45 KT FROM THE WEST WITH WEAK COLD-ADVECTION THAT
WILL PROMOTE MIXING. LOOKS TO BE JUST BELOW HIGH WIND WRNG CRITERIA
BUT IT DOES BEAR WATCHING. ALTHOUGH GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO
FRIDAY THEY SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT MUTED AS 700-MB WIND SPEEDS DECREASE
BY 5-10 KT AND THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS.
GIVEN THE UPPER RIDGE AND 700-MB TEMPS OF 7-10C ACROSS THE CWA THE
TEMPS WILL BE 15-20F ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM...AND
APPROACHING RECORD LEVELS ON FRIDAY. THE RH ALSO WILL DROP TO NEAR
15 PERCENT ACROSS THE SERN WY PLAINS ON FRI AFTN. FRI NGT WILL AGAIN
BE QUITE MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014
UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY AS
RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST OF THE CWA DURING THE DAY. HIGHS WILL
BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA DURING THE DAY.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE
SHIFTS FURTHER EAST...ALLOWING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD
FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON
SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR AND WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE...WITH CHANCES SPREADING OVER THE REST OF THE CWA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AS COLDER AIR PUSHES IN SUNDAY NIGHT...SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY OVER AT
LEAST THE SOUTH CENTRAL WY MOUNTAINS.
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A WARMUP POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK.
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 614 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014
AVIATION IMPACTS WILL BE MINIMAL THROUGH THE UPCOMING PERIOD WITH
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING. THERE WILL BE A SCT-BKN200 CLOUD LAYER MOVING
OVERHEAD TONIGHT...BUT THESE TOO SHOULD LESSEN BY MIDDAY FRIDAY.
WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AIRFIELDS 15-16Z
ON FRIDAY WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 KNOTS EXPECTED.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014
CONTINUED WARM AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS. EXPECT AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES TO FALL
INTO THE MID TO UPPER TEENS EACH AFTERNOON. FORTUNATELY...FUELS
ARE REPORTED AS GREEN FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING WHERE THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. SO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
SHOULD BE MINIMAL. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN CONSIDERABLY FROM
LATE SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY
TRACKS THROUGH THE ROCKIES.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BUNKERS/WFOUNR
LONG TERM...WFOUNR
AVIATION...CAH
FIRE WEATHER...WFOUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
305 AM MST FRI OCT 24 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS NORTHEASTWARD...WITH NEAR-RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE TODAY
AND SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. A COOLING TREND IS THEN
EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
INLAND INTO THE GREAT BASIN...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK TO NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS. A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED
BY WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES REESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
WESTERN STATES.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
LATEST RAP ANALYSIS PLACES THE MID-UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE NEAR
PHOENIX WITH HIGH CLOUDS DISPLACED WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION.
A WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
AS THE RIDGE BUILDS NORTHWARD WHILE SLIDING EASTWARD. PHOENIX RECORD
HIGH OF 96 DEGREES IS IN JEOPARDY TODAY...THOUGH THE DAILY RECORD OF
105 DEGREES IN YUMA IS WELL OUT OF REACH.
SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY BETWEEN THE RIDGE IN
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND A PACIFIC TROUGH MOVING INTO THE GREAT
BASIN. MODELS ARE ALSO INDICATING AN INNOCUOUS UPPER LOW WILL BE
PULLED NORTHWARD INTO AZ. MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE AN
INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL MOISTURE. GFS IVT IS STRONG ENOUGH TO SUGGEST
SOME POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED CLOUDS AND SPRINKLES MAINLY LATE IN THE
DAY...THOUGH THE CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN REMAINS NEGLIGIBLE. NET
DECREASE IN HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES COMBINED WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER
WILL RESULT IN COOLING THROUGH THE COLUMN...EXCEPT BELOW 900 MB
WHERE THE WELL-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST. LATEST
FORECAST OF 95 DEGREES IN PHOENIX REPRESENTS A SLIGHT DECREASE FROM
24 HOURS AGO...THOUGH IT IS CONCEIVABLE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN
REACH THE RECORD OF 96 DEGREES FOR THE DAY.
DISCERNIBLE COOLING TREND WILL BEGIN SUNDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE ROCKIES. COOLEST DAY WILL LIKELY BE
MONDAY AS A SOUTHERN STREAM PACIFIC TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE
REGION. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY DROP TO NEAR OR EVEN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
WARMING TREND IS LIKELY BEGINNING TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. DISTINCT
DIFFERENCE IN THE OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF IS APPARENT BY MIDWEEK
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. LATEST ECMWF IS FAVORED GIVEN ITS STRONG
PERFORMANCE OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS AND RELATIVELY LOW ENSEMBLE
SPREAD. CONSEQUENTLY...FORECAST TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN INCREASED
OWING TO ANOTHER ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES.
POPS REMAIN NIL THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL KEEP SKIES MAINLY CLEAR
AT ALL THE TAF SITES THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS TO REMAIN ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...MAINLY AOB 6 KTS...GENERALLY FOLLOWING THE USUAL DIURNAL
TRENDS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
DATE PHOENIX
---- -------
FRI OCT 24 96 IN 2007
SAT OCT 25 96 IN 1990
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH INCREASED DAYTIME WINDS ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVES
OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL TAKE PLACE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 20 MPH...WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER RIDGES AND UPPER SLOPES.
LIGHTER WINDS WILL THEN PREVAIL MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS SLOWLY OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL GENERALLY RANGE IN THE TEENS ACROSS
THE LOWER DESERTS EACH DAY...WITH HIGHER VALUES IN THE
MOUNTAINS...FOLLOWED BY GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERY AREA-WIDE.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
CLIMATE...MO/HIRSCH
AVIATION...PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...PERCHA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
349 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014
.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR AND RAP ANALYSIS FROM EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWED DEEP
MOISTURE MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS CUBA...THE FLORIDA STRAITS...AND
SOUTH FLORIDA. MUCH DRIER AIR WAS LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND
THE GULF OF MEXICO. A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE PENINSULA. AN AREA OF CONVECTION WAS LOCATED
ACROSS THE BAHAMAS SOUTHWARD TO CENTRAL CUBA AND MOVING OFF TO THE
EAST AND NORTHEAST. 850MB FLOW WAS 20-25 KNOTS ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND KEYS...AND THESE STRONGER
WINDS WERE MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND MIAMI-
DADE COUNTY. THIS WEAK JET WILL PROMOTE HIGHER RAINFALL EFFICIENCY.
RAINFALL COVERAGE WAS INCREASING ACROSS THE KEYS AND LOCAL ATLANTIC
WATERS...AND A BAND OF SHOWERS WAS MOVING INTO MIAMI-DADE COUNTY.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS BAND.
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN TIP OF
CUBA. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WILL DIG SOUTH
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL DEEPEN THE FRONTAL WAVE AS IT MOVES INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE AS THE REGION REMAINS TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. SOME
WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKE PLACE TODAY...BUT CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN
SOUTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE KEYS AND FLORIDA STRAITS. SO LEFT OUT
MENTION OF THUNDER. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE BOUNDARY...BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OVER
MIAMI-DADE AND SOUTHEAST BROWARD COUNTIES. A SHARP POP GRADIENT WILL
EXIST AGAIN TODAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS GLADES COUNTY
SOUTHWEST TO NAPLES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 80 TO THE MID 80S.
THE GFS IS THE STRONGEST AMONG THE MODEL GUIDANCE WITH THE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE AND HAS SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KNOTS OVER THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE DROPS TO AROUND 1000MB. THE
OTHER AVAILABLE GUIDANCE IS LOWER...WITH WINDS IN THE 25-30 KNOT
RANGE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT. THERE IS NO COLD AIR
ADVECTION...SO WILL NOT GO WITH A GALE AT THIS TIME. FOR THE AREAS
ALONG THE EAST COAST...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS
AS HIGH AS 35 MPH MID/LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT BEFORE
SUBSIDING. THIS IS JUST BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.
RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS AND INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC
AND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST GULF AND SOUTH
FLORIDA. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW...WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE 50S
TO LOW 60S. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF ON SATURDAY WILL BUILD EASTWARD
TO NORTH OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY...AND WINDS WILL VEER TO THE
NORTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...WITH EASTERLY FLOW AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL SLOWLY RISE BACK INTO THE
MID 70S FOR THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS DUE TO THE ONSHORE FLOW.
HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE IN THE MID 80S.
&&
.AVIATION... A LOW, DEVELOPING OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS, WILL BRING
RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS TO SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE
LOW IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE MORNING, THE BEGIN TO MOVE
AWAY FROM THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, WINDS LOOK TO BE THE
STRONGEST THIS EVENING, WHEN GUSTS LOOK TO BE AROUND 30KTS OUT OF
THE NORTHEAST. THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON, HEAVY
RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS COULD BRING BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS
TO SOUTH FLORIDA AT ANY GIVEN TIME. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY
OF THE TIMING, AND THE SHORT DURATION OF THE EXPECTED IFR
OCCURRENCE, HAVE KEPT THE MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
&&
.MARINE...
A FRONTAL WAVE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY ACROSS DEEP
SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-30 KNOTS ACROSS THE
REGIONAL WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE GULF STREAM TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND INTO THE BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND THEN
INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THIS EVENING AND ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS
ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION ON
SUNDAY AND ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 80 70 82 69 / 50 20 10 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 80 73 82 71 / 80 30 10 0
MIAMI 80 71 82 69 / 90 30 10 0
NAPLES 85 66 82 65 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR FLZ173.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ630-650-651-
670-671.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR AMZ630.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ656-657-
676.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....84/AK
AVIATION...13/SI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
327 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014
.DISCUSSION...
326 AM CDT
SHORT TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING...THE INITIAL
CONCERN WILL BE CLOUD COVER...AND IMPACTS ON VISIBILITY. FOLLOWING
THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK SFC TROUGH/PACIFIC-SOURCED WEAK COLD
FRONT...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE HAS BUILT ACROSS THE REGION. A LOW
STRATUS DECK HAS BEEN IN PLACE FOLLOWING THE FROPA...BUT THE STRATUS
DECK IS ERODING IN PLACES...AND WITH CALM TO LGT/VRBL WINDS IN
PLACE...THE CLEARING LOCATIONS ARE EXPERIENCING RAPID FOG
DEVELOPMENT. THE FOG IS INITIALLY MOSTLY IMPACTING NWRN IL...ARND
THE ROCKFORD AREA...BUT AS THE STRATUS CONTINUES TO
DISSIPATE...ADDITIONAL FOG MAY DEVELOP...BUT ANY DENSE FOG SHOULD BE
LIMITED TO NORTH CENTRAL AND NWRN IL...AWAY FROM THE CHICAGO METRO
AREA. EXCEPT FOR LOCATIONS THAT CLEAR OUT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
GENERALLY BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S...EXCEPT FOR SOME
ISOLATED...SHELTERED LOW LYING AREAS...WHICH COULD RADIATE DOWN INTO
THE UPPER 40S.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF FRIDAY...THE WARMING TREND SHOULD CONTINUE AS
UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE
WESTERN PLAINS. THE MORNING STRATUS AND STRATOCU SHOULD DISSIPATE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...BUT TOTAL SUNSHINE WILL BE LIMITED AS A
THICK CIRRUS LAYER AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
JET STREAM DIVES OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE
MIDWEST. THE SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE IS ALSO INDICATING SOME SHORTWAVE
ENERGY OVERTOPPING THE RIDGE THIS EVENING...WITH SOME GUIDANCE
INDICATING A LITTLE QPF. HAVE A HARD TIME INTRODUCING ANY
MENTIONABLE POPS WITH THIS SYSTEM AS MOISTURE PROFILE FORECASTS ALSO
INDICATE LITTLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. HOWEVER...SOME OF THE HIGH RES
SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IS SHOWING SOME INCREASE RH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
UNDER INCREASINGLY SWLY FLOW...BUT AS FLOW OFF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
WILL BE LIMITED BY HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE CNTRL
APPALACHIANS THROUGH ERN TX...FEEL THAT THIS INCREASED RH COULD BE
MORE INDICATIVE OF SOME FOG POTENTIAL RATHER THAN PCPN POTENTIAL.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...UNDER INCREASING LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND
BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT...EXPECT THAT TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY WILL
LIKELY BE AROUND 5 DEGREES HIGHER THAN THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MIDDLE 60S. FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN MILD WITH DEWPOINTS
INCREASING INTO LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S THROUGH FRIDAY AND INTO FRIDAY
EVENING...SO OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY MORNING SHOULD BE UNSEASONABLY
MILD...AND ONLY DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.
KREIN
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
500MB TROUGH AXIS WILL BE PIVOTING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...WITH A TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING SOUTH AND
EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY MORNING.
MID-LVL HEIGHTS WILL STEADILY RISE AS THE RIDGE PARKED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS PUSHES EAST...BRINGING MILDER AIR TO THE REGION SAT
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPR 60S. THE FAR SOUTHERN CWFA COULD TOUCH 70
DEG SAT. TEMPS SUN ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER AS THE FLOW
BEGINS TO TRANSITION BRIEFLY INTO A QUASI-ZONAL SETUP. HOWEVER THIS
DOES NOT LOOK TO REMAIN VERY LONG...AS RIDGING RETURNS FOR MON AND
TEMPS SHUD QUICKLY WARM INTO THE 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. A WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT ACROSS THE AREA EARLY MON...AS SOUTHERLY
FLOW STRENGTHENS. EXPECT MUCH OF THE DAY MON TO REMAIN DRY...HOWEVER
LATE AFTN/EVE A DEVELOPING LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS MAY HELP TO
GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATE MON.
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE
RIDGING OVERHEAD WILL SHIFT EAST...WITH FLOW TRYING TO FLATTEN.
SUGGESTING THAT A SEMI-ZONAL SETUP MAY DEVELOP BY WED...WHICH WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. TEMPS SHUD RETURN TO
MORE SEASONAL CONDS TUE/WED.
BEACHLER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* MVFR CIGS/VIS DURG THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS. CHANCE
CIGS COULD DROP TO IFR LEVELS.
KREIN
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK SFC TROUGH...ANY RESIDUAL PCPN
REMAINS ISOLD AND SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOLE
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND AS HIGH CLOUD PUSHES AWAY...A BAND
OF STRATUS CAN BE SEEN IN THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY. AS A
NOCTURNAL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LOWERS OVERNIGHT...CLOUD BASES
SHOULD GRADUALLY LOWER TO LOWER END MVFR LEVELS. THERE IS A CHANCE
FOR SOME PATCHY IFR CIGS DURG THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...ESPECIALLY
OVER NWRN IL WHERE SOME RAIN FELL EARLIER...WHICH WOULD MOST
LIKELY AFFECT RFD AND POSSIBLY DPA. AS WINDS BECM LGT/VRBL
OVERNIGHT...VIS SHOULD DROP TO 3-5SM DURG THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...AND IF THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STRATUS DECK CAN ERODE OVER
NWRN IL BEFORE SUNRISE...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR RFD TO DROP INTO
IFR OR EVEN LIFR VIS LEVELS. HOWEVER...THAT WOULD BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE CIG TRENDS.
THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY...ANOTHER SFC TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS
THE CNTRL PLAINS TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY EARLY EVENING.
WINDS WILL BECOME SSWLY THOUGH THE DAY...THOUGH WITH A WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT...WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BE LESS THAN 10KT THROUGH
THE DAY. FOR THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...SOME OF THE MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING THAT THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT PCPN WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE NEXT SFC TROUGH. HOWEVER...SINCE FORCING WITH THIS TROUGH AXIS
LOOKS TO BE RATHER WEAK...CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO ADD PCPN TO THE
TAFS AT THIS TIME.
KREIN
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIG/VIS TRENDS OVERNIGHT.
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN SPECIFIC TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR FRIDAY.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL FORECAST ELEMENTS THROUGH THE DAY ON
FRIDAY.
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE CHANCES FOR PCPN FRIDAY EVENING.
KREIN
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
* FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY DRY. MVFR/FOG POSSIBLE.
* SATURDAY...DRY/VFR. GUSTY WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS.
* SUNDAY...DRY/VFR. SOUTHEAST WINDS.
* MONDAY...DRY/VFR. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS.
* TUESDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA. STRONG/GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS.
* WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS.
KMD
&&
.MARINE...
215 AM CDT
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM WESTERN QUEBEC
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. THIS RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST OF THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...MEANWHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA
CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST TOWARDS HUDSON BAY SATURDAY. THE GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...THEN SLOWLY TURN
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY. AS THE LOW NEARS HUDSON BAY ON SATURDAY...A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL TRAIL AND SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN. THIS WILL RESULT IN WINDS TURNING WEST/NORTHWEST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. COOLER AIR WILL FLOW ACROSS THE LAKE
ALONG WITH A TIGHTENING GRADIENT...RESULTING IN INCREASING WINDS
NEARING 30KT AT TIMES. THEN ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
QUICKLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST/NORTHERN PLAINS
SUNDAY...STEADILY DIMINISHING THE GRADIENT. ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...THEN APPROACH LAKE MICHIGAN CLOSER TO MID-WEEK. THIS WILL
BRING WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH OCCASIONALLY WINDS GUSTING
TO 30KT.
BEACHLER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
236 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 235 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014
A weak short wave continues to move through the eastern parts of the
CWA this morning, but this should be out of the state by time the
new forecast is issued, or shortly after. The main concern this
morning is the development and advection of stratus clouds and fog
early this morning. Dense fog is present across most of eastern Iowa
this morning and the HRRR model advects this into the area for this
morning. This will keep lots of clouds in the area for this morning,
and could affect max temps for this afternoon, depending on how
quickly the clouds dissipate. Models have it diminishing during
the late morning hours. And with winds becoming southerly by
afternoon, believe some dissipation of the clouds will happen. So
will have less clouds during the afternoon. However, afternoon
high temps may not be as high as first forecast, so have decreased
max temps 1-2 degrees from previous forecast. MAV guidance is
higher than MET by several degrees, so took a compromise between
the two due to cloud cover issues.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 235 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014
Main forecast issue this weekend and into Monday involves
temperatures. Latest model runs for Saturday have been warmer, as
main core of cooler air associated with a frontal boundary track
more across the Great Lakes region. Have bumped up Saturday highs by
a couple degrees. 850 mb warm front progged to lift through the area
late Saturday night and early Sunday, with +16C temperatures
spreading across central Illinois Sunday afternoon, lingering into
Monday. Have also raised highs several degrees both Sunday and
Monday, with a few 80 degree readings possible on Monday across
southwest and southeast portions of the forecast area. Record highs
for Monday are in the mid 80s and currently appear safe.
Split upper flow early next week focuses the deeper part of the next
wave along the northern stream. Model guidance is fairly uniform
with rain chances Monday night through about midday Tuesday, and
pretty much has the forecast area dry by sunset as a high pressure
ridge quickly builds into the mid-Mississippi Valley. However, the
guidance diverges later in the week. The ECMWF persists in a rather
broad trough along the Mississippi River midday Thursday, but now
significantly ramps up rain chances along the associated surface
front. The GFS has a weaker, more progressive wave with little
precipitation. Have leaned more toward the progressive solution for
now. The ECMWF also persists in developing a large closed low over
the Great Lakes late week, which would pump significantly cooler air
into Illinois. Meanwhile, the GFS builds a ridge eastward, with much
warmer air (850 mb temperatures range from -5C to +8C between the
two models). However, this particular aspect is just beyond the
current forecast range, but will need to be addressed with the
afternoon forecast issuance.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014
A trailing shortwave feature will produce a few additional
showers over east central IL until 9-12Z, but otherwise mid- and
upper-level clearing overnight will allow areas of fog and low
cloud to continue, especially west of the Illinois River.
Potential IFR or worse vsby/cigs expected, however potential for
dense fog is mainly west of central IL TAF sites. Daytime heating
expected to dissipate fog around 15Z Friday leaving cloud cover
SCT-BKN025 through afternoon. Another weak disturbance will bring
additional potential for MVFR ceilings after 00Z Saturday.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Auten
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Onton
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1249 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014
.DISCUSSION...
903 PM CDT
THE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE TO DISSIPATE POPS AT A QUICKER
RATE...HOLD ONTO MORE CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND ADD
DENSE MENTION TO THE FOG WORDING OVER NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS.
THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT HAD BEEN APPROACHING STEADILY TOWARD THE
AREA THE PAST 24 HOURS HAS DIMINISHED GREATLY SINCE MID-
AFTERNOON...LOSING MUCH OF ITS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. FORCING FOR
RAIN SHOWERS HAS ALSO BEEN DIMINISHING WITH MORE LIMITED MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE WITHIN THE AREA OF ASCENT...SO SHOWERS HAVE QUICKLY
BEEN WANING. THE SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS SURVIVING SHOULD CONTINUE
SLOWLY EAST WITH A GRADUAL FADE INTO OVERNIGHT.
WITH THE HIGHER DEW POINT PLUME OF UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S BROUGHT
UP TO EASTERN IA AND NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL IL BY THE
TROUGH...CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE FOR FOG. ONE THING AGAINST FOG
DEVELOPMENT IS EXISTING CLOUDS WHICH AS SEEN ON THE 00Z DVN RAOB
ARE FAIRLY DEEP /SEVERAL THOUSAND FEET SATURATED LAYER/. THIS AREA
LOOKS TO SLOW ITS MOVEMENT EAST OVER THE CWA THUS NOT ALLOWING
MUCH CLEARING FOR NORTHEAST IL AND NORTHWEST IN...INCLUDING
CHICAGO. MORE PROBLEMATIC WILL BE POSSIBLY SOME CLEARING OF THIS
CLOUD LAYER IN NORTH CENTRAL IL LATE ALLOWING FOR NEARBY VERY LOW
STRATUS AND SOME FOG ALREADY BEING OBSERVED TO JUST EXPAND IN AND
WORSEN THROUGH DAYBREAK. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND HIGH-RES GUIDANCE
FIELDS HAVE TRENDED THIS ROUTE IN THE GENERAL ROCKFORD AND DIXON
AREAS. HAVE BUMPED UP FOG WORDING THERE AND COULD SEE A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY BEING NEEDED DEPENDING ON HOW AGGRESSIVE THE LOWERING IS.
AGAIN FURTHER EASTWARD TOWARD CHICAGO EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO LIMIT
ANY FOG THAT GRADUALLY DEVELOPS FROM GETTING TOO BAD.
HAVE BUMPED UP MINS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER WITH THE CLOUDS
EXPECTED TO HANG ON A GOOD PART OF THE NIGHT IN MOST PLACES.
MTF
//PREV DISCUSSION...
327 PM CDT
AFTERNOON GOES VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH
PROPAGATING THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH A WEAK
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE REFLECTION OVER EAST CENTRAL IOWA. AS EXPECTED
THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD/INTO THIS SYSTEM IS RATHER SPARSE...
WITH A FAIRLY NARROW RIBBON OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST IL AND SOUTHERN WI. HIGH-RES
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THIS EVENING...THOUGH WITH
COVERAGE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT LIMITED AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN WITH LOSS OF DEFINITION OF
THE SURFACE WAVE AND LOW PRESSURE TROUGH. IN ADDITION TO THE
EXTENSIVE MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL LIKELY OBSCURE PARTIAL SOLAR ECLIPSE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...LOWER CLOUDS ALSO EXPECTED AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AXIS ARRIVES. SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA WHERE LIGHT WINDS AND 45-50 DEGREE
SURFACE DEW POINT TEMPS WILL RESULT IN HIGH LOW LEVEL RH...THOUGH
CLEARING SKIES WILL BE MORE LIKELY WEST OF THE CWA WHERE SIGNIFICANT
DENSE FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. AT LEAST CLOUD COVER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL KEEP TEMPS A
LITTLE MILDER OVERNIGHT.
SHORT-WAVE WILL MOVE QUICKLY SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH MODEST HEIGHT RISES AND A SUBTLE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA. ANOTHER TRAILING SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER
THE ROCKIES IS PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS MISSOURI AND
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ILLINOIS FRIDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WHICH MAY
KEEP A LITTLE CLOUD COVER AROUND. OTHERWISE...DOMINANT WEATHER
FEATURE BECOMES A BROAD UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER WEST TEXAS WHICH
COVERS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS INTO THE WEEKEND. A STRONG 150+ KT
UPPER JET FLATTENS THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AS IT RIDES ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER FRIDAY...THOUGH THE MAIN AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE
REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. A
COLD FRONT DOES TRAIL INTO THE REGION HOWEVER...MOVING ACROSS THE
CWA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SOME GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE SOME VERY
SPOTTY/VERY LIGHT QPF WITH FROPA DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS SATURDAY
ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE MUCH LESS IMPRESSIVE WITH PRECIP THAN WITH
CURRENT WAVE...WITH SREF POPS LESS THAN 20 PERCENT. COLD FRONT
COMPLETES THE TRANSIT OF THE CWA SATURDAY MORNING...THOUGH PACIFIC
NATURE OF THE FRONT PRODUCES ONLY MODEST COOLING AS IT SHIFTS WINDS
TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY. LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROGS AND
POTENTIAL FOR A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE SUPPORT TEMPS IN THE 65-AROUND
70 RANGE DESPITE THE SLIGHT COOL ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT...AS
UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO AMPLIFY AND DEVELOP INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY SUNDAY AS
LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES ASHORE IN THE WEST...WITH A LARGE
LEE TROUGH DEVELOPING EAST OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. LOW
PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH A WARM FRONT
LIFTING ACROSS IA-IL SUNDAY NIGHT. SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF
THE WARM FRONT...IN ADDITION TO CLOUD DEVELOPMENT NORTH OF THE WARM
FRONT LOOK TO TEMPER WARM-UP ONLY SLIGHTLY...WITH 60-66 FOR HIGHS
WITH COOLEST AIR ALONG THE IL LAKE SHORE. SOME POTENTIAL FOR
ELEVATED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT
SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN IL.
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE CWA MONDAY...WITH BREEZY/WARM AND MORE
HUMID AIR IN THE WARM SECTOR SUPPORTING TEMPS IN THE 70S AREA-WIDE.
ECMWF/GFS AND GEM ALL INDICATE VERY LITTLE PRECIP IN THE WARM SECTOR
WITH THE MAIN FOCUS ALONG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST. RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THUS INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS
THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST THROUGH THE REGION.
BREEZY AND COOLER CONDITIONS THEN RETURN AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY TO
THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SOME DIFFERENCES REMAIN
WITH THE HANDLING OF THE LOW DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK...THOUGH THIS
MAINLY AFFECTS HOW QUICKLY WE DRY OUT ON TUESDAY. OTHERWISE GUIDANCE
IS ACTUALLY QUITE REASONABLE IN AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
RATZER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* MVFR CIGS/VIS DURG THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS. CHANCE
CIGS COULD DROP TO IFR LEVELS.
KREIN
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK SFC TROUGH...ANY RESIDUAL PCPN
REMAINS ISOLD AND SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOLE
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND AS HIGH CLOUD PUSHES AWAY...A BAND
OF STRATUS CAN BE SEEN IN THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY. AS A
NOCTURNAL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LOWERS OVERNIGHT...CLOUD BASES
SHOULD GRADUALLY LOWER TO LOWER END MVFR LEVELS. THERE IS A CHANCE
FOR SOME PATCHY IFR CIGS DURG THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...ESPECIALLY
OVER NWRN IL WHERE SOME RAIN FELL EARLIER...WHICH WOULD MOST
LIKELY AFFECT RFD AND POSSIBLY DPA. AS WINDS BECM LGT/VRBL
OVERNIGHT...VIS SHOULD DROP TO 3-5SM DURG THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...AND IF THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STRATUS DECK CAN ERODE OVER
NWRN IL BEFORE SUNRISE...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR RFD TO DROP INTO
IFR OR EVEN LIFR VIS LEVELS. HOWEVER...THAT WOULD BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE CIG TRENDS.
THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY...ANOTHER SFC TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS
THE CNTRL PLAINS TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY EARLY EVENING.
WINDS WILL BECOME SSWLY THOUGH THE DAY...THOUGH WITH A WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT...WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BE LESS THAN 10KT THROUGH
THE DAY. FOR THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...SOME OF THE MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING THAT THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT PCPN WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE NEXT SFC TROUGH. HOWEVER...SINCE FORCING WITH THIS TROUGH AXIS
LOOKS TO BE RATHER WEAK...CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO ADD PCPN TO THE
TAFS AT THIS TIME.
KREIN
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIG/VIS TRENDS OVERNIGHT.
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN SPECIFIC TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR FRIDAY.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL FORECAST ELEMENTS THROUGH THE DAY ON
FRIDAY.
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE CHANCES FOR PCPN FRIDAY EVENING.
KREIN
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
* FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY DRY. MVFR/FOG POSSIBLE.
* SATURDAY...DRY/VFR. GUSTY WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS.
* SUNDAY...DRY/VFR. SOUTHEAST WINDS.
* MONDAY...DRY/VFR. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS.
* TUESDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA. STRONG/GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS.
* WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS.
KMD
&&
.MARINE...
244 PM CDT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
EAST ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES RESULTING IN GENERALLY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE LAKE. THIS LOW WILL MOVE OVER JAMES BAY
SATURDAY DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN AND TURNING
WINDS TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST. THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT IS SLOW
TO TRICKLE IN AND THE AIRMASS IS SHALLOW...SO WHILE THERE ARE
GALES JUST OFF THE DECK...IT DOESNT APPEAR THAT THEY WOULD MIX
DOWN TO THE LAKE SURFACE AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL PEAK
OCCASIONALLY TO 30 KT SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN SHOULD
TREND DOWN THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK
OVER THE REGION. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO LIFT
ACROSS THE REGION AROUND MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK AND WILL ONCE AGAIN
BRING MODERATE WINDS TO LAKE MICHIGAN.
BMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1141 PM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 841 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014
The upper level trough axis of weak storm system is crossing
Illinois this evening with isolated light showers and virga
detected by radar just ahead of the axis over central Illinois.
Behind the trough axis, mid-level clouds can be seen on satellite
rapidly dissipating over western Illinois, however low clouds
continue. Any additional clearing will likely be replaced by fog
formation overnight. The system will continue to move east, with
any showers likely to end by early morning eastward to the IL/IN
state line, after little or no rainfall accumulation. Patchy fog
is included in overnight forecast from near the Illinois River
westward. Low temperatures should reach the mid to upper 40s at
most locations. Current forecast is still on track with these
features and only updates have been to convert slight chance PoPs
to isolated showers.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014
19z/2pm surface analysis shows weak cold front/trough axis extending
from Minnesota to northern Kansas. Band of clouds and light showers
accompanies this feature from Missouri northeastward into Wisconsin,
although showers have been struggling to spread eastward into the
very dry airmass across Illinois. Forecast soundings suggest
continued top-down moistening this afternoon and evening as 500mb
trough approaches from the west. Despite decent lift ahead of the
trough, dry airmass will be the main mitigating factor for
widespread precip development. Will therefore continue to feature
just slight chance PoPs this evening across all locations north of
the I-70 corridor and across the N/NE KILX CWA overnight. Rainfall
totals will be quite light, amounting to little more than a couple
hundredths of an inch at best. Due to the clouds, overnight lows
will be quite a but warmer than in recent nights, with readings
remaining in the middle to upper 40s. Skies may temporarily clear
along/west of the Illinois River late tonight: however, with light
winds and plenty of surface-based moisture in place, think fog
and/or low clouds will develop toward dawn. Have therefore included
patchy fog mention across the W/NW overnight. HRRR suggests
widespread fog and lowest visbys will develop further west
along/west of the Mississippi River.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014
Initial forecast challenge will be how quickly the low level
moisture/clouds are able to clear out during the day Friday as
forecast soundings not looking very optimistic, at least thru
the morning hours. However, we do see some drying taking place
in the lower levels of the atmosphere in the wake of the shortwave
by late morning/early afternoon. Will keep the clouds and mention
of early morning fog in for a few hours after sunrise and then
forecast a gradual decrease in clouds from northwest to southeast
during the day. Models continue to bring a weak cold front into
our area late Friday night into Saturday with very little moisture
to work, with so will continue with the dry forecast later Friday
night thru Saturday morning. After that, some very nice weather in
store for the area thru Monday evening as upper level ridging
builds across the center of the country in response to a rather
deep trof pushing across the western U.S.
Models in decent agreement with respect to the magnitude of the
trof forecast to push across our area on Tuesday and the timing
of the cold frontal passage and rain chances ahead of it starting
late Monday night with likely POPs most areas on Tuesday. Before
the rain moves in though, some pleasantly warm weather is in store
for the region this weekend with summer-like temperatures on Monday
thanks to a gusty south to southwest wind. Despite the weak cold
frontal passage on Saturday, temperatures on Sunday will only cool
about 5 degrees most areas, but rise well into the 70s on Monday
afternoon with low 80s possible in the southeast. Rain chances will
increase ahead of the low pressure system late Monday night in the
west and over all of our area on Tuesday as the front sweeps across
the area. Strong dynamics aloft with 0-6km shear values of 40-50
kts and models indicating surface dew points climbing to around 60
just ahead of the front. Will have to monitor for the possibility
for strong to severe storms Tuesday afternoon if the models continue
with the slowing trend with the frontal passage.
Rain chances start to decrease from west to east Tuesday evening in the
wake of the storm system with dry weather expected for the remainder
of the period. Temperatures will cool back closer to where they should
be for the end of October.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014
A trailing shortwave feature will produce a few additional
showers over east central IL until 9-12Z, but otherwise mid- and
upper-level clearing overnight will allow areas of fog and low
cloud to continue, especially west of the Illinois River.
Potential IFR or worse vsby/cigs expected, however potential for
dense fog is mainly west of central IL TAF sites. Daytime heating
expected to dissipate fog around 15Z Friday leaving cloud cover
sct-bkn025 through afternoon. Another weak disturbance will bring
additional potential for MVFR ceilings after 00Z Saturday.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Onton
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...Onton
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
133 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
TO NOVA SCOTIA THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN...HEAVY AT
TIMES ACROSS ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE
REGION. THIS LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
115 AM UPDATE: 05Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED LOW PRES SE OF CAPE COD
STARTING TO MOVE SLOWLY NE. SATELLITE WV IMAGERY CONFIRMS THIS TO
BE THE CASE AS THE LOW IS SHOWING SIGNS OF OPENING. RADAR LOOP
SHOWED A LARGE AREA OF RAIN MOVING W W/SOME POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN
EMBEDDED. 24 HR TOTALS RANGE FROM 2.0 TO 2.5 INCHES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND DOWNEAST INCLUDING THE COAST. LESS AMOUNTS
AS ONE TRAVELS NORTHWARD W/<1" OF RAINFALL. THE HRRR 3KM
MESOSCALE MODEL WAS DOING WELL W/THE PLACEMENT OF THE RAINFALL PER
THE RADAR AS WAS THE 00Z RUN OF THE CANADIAN GEM. THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL HAS NOW SHIFTED AWAY FROM THE COAST. ADJUSTED THE POPS TO
REFLECT 2 AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER AND
DOWN THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS INTO EASTERN MAINE. HRLY
TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED TO MATCH THE CURRENT CONDITIONS.
A LOW SLOWLY TRACKING ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE WILL INFLUENCE THE
WEATHER FOR THE AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
SATELLITE...AND MODEL DATA SUPPORT A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW THAT
IS BECOMING COLD CORE. AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THE
GFS/NAM/GEM/ECMWF ALL PLACE THE LOW JUST SE OF CAPE COD...WITH THE
OCCLUDED FRONT WRAPPED AROUND THE CENTER EXTENDING NORTH INTO
CENTRAL MAINE. ALL MEMBERS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE HEAVIEST QPF
FALLING ACROSS THE DOWNEAST COAST...AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST. BY
TOMORROW MORNING THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT.
TAKING THE LOW ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE...EAST OF CAPE COD...SOUTH
OF EASTPORT. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE LOW TRACK EAST TO A
POSITION SOUTHEAST OF YARMOUTH ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA. THE REMNANTS OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT REMAIN OVER NRN
MAINE...CLEARING BEGINS ACROSS SW AND WRN MAINE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
LOOK FOR RAIN TO FINALLY TAPER OFF FRIDAY EVENING AS THE SYSTEM
KICKS OUT TO THE EAST. A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER INTO SATURDAY
MORNING MAINLY OVER FAR NORTHEAST MAINE. DRY DAY IN STORE FOR
SATURDAY. HOWEVER, ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BE HOT ON ITS HEELS. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE FAIRLY MINOR, WITH SHOWERS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND TAPERING OFF SUNDAY EVENING. EXPECT LESS
THAN A HALF INCH OF RAIN WITH THE SYSTEM, WITH THE HIGHER TOTALS
LIKELY BEING OVER NORTHERN MAINE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SEASONABLY COOL AND DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY, THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN MONDAY NIGHT. THEN WARMER
TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. NEXT SYSTEM POISED TO IMPACT US
LATE WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A FAST HITTING COLD FRONT
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. A QUICK PERIOD OF SHOWERS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY COOLER, DRIER WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MODELS ARE
IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR PREVAILING CONDITIONS ACROSS MAINE THROUGH TONIGHT. SLOW
IMPROVEMENTS LATE IN THE PERIOD FOR BGR AND BHB.
SHORT TERM: LINGERING MVFR FRIDAY NIGHT PRIMARILY FAR EASTERN
MAINE. VFR EVERYWHERE BY MIDDAY SATURDAY, THEN MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING MAINLY FOR NORTHERN MAINE
AS A WEAK SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: GALE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 1 AM. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
SUBSIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT. AN SCA WILL BE REQUIRED AFTER 1 AM.
SHORT TERM: NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS FRIDAY EVENING WILL
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. WEST WINDS THEN INCREASE BACK UP TO NEAR
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS OF 25 KNOTS SUNDAY. SEAS WILL BE 3 TO 5 FEET FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1143 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A PATCH OF LIFR
CIGS/VSBYS DEVELOPING ALONG THE PECOS RIVER VALLEY IN THE VICINITY
OF KROW BY 09Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY...THERE MAY BE MORE
HIGH CLOUD COVER THAN INDICATED IN TAFS. IF MORE CIRRUS
EXISTS...CHANCES OF FOG DEVELOPING IN THE MORENO VALLEY
OVERNIGHT...NEAR KAXX...IS EVEN LOWER. THUS...CONFIDENCE REMAINS
QUITE LOW THAT FOG WILL DEVELOP IN THIS AREA.
34
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...919 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014...
.UPDATE...
WILL ADD LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG FOR THE PECOS RIVER VALLEY FROM
FORT SUMNER ON SOUTH AND FOR MOST OF ROOSEVELT COUNTY FOR LATER
TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. BASED THIS ON LATEST HRRR MODEL
RUN SUGGESTING MVR AND LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA, ALSO
ONLY 4 DEGREE TEMPERATURE...DEWPOINT SPREAD CURRENTLY. ZONES OUT
SHORTLY. CHJ
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...310 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY PATTERN THROUGH THE NEARLY THE NEXT WEEK AND A HALF...EXCEPTING
ONLY THE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY PERIOD WHEN SOME FORECAST
MODELS INDICATE RATHER LOW CHANCE AND LOW QPF PRECIPITATION ACROSS
SOME PORTION OF NORTH NEW MEXICO AS 2 OR 3 SHORT WAVES RACE EAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WITHIN A BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH. THESE
WAVES WILL ALSO RESULT IN SOME BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS
MAINLY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND SOME DEGREE...AHEM...OF TEMPERATURE
DROP. NEARER TERM AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THEN PASSES EAST OF THE
STATE EXPECT SOME NEAR RECORD TO RECORD AFTERNOON WARMTH...MAINLY
EAST.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
TRANQUIL WX PATTERN FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT 10 DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT BUILDS INTO NM TONIGHT AND FRI...THEN PASSES TO EAST OF THE
STATE SAT AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH CONTAINING SOME SHORT WAVES NEARS.
WITH MOISTURE GETTING EVER MORE SHALLOW EAST OF CENTRAL MTN CHAIN
AS DRY INTRUSION TAKES ITS SWEET TIME SCOURING OUT SAID MOISTURE...
FOG SHOULD BE LESS OF A PROBLEM LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
FRI...COMPARED TO EARLY TODAY...THOUGH WOULD NOT RULE OUT SOME
VERY LOCALIZED FOG PATCHES SE PLAINS AND MORENO VALLEY. OF LITTLE
OVERALL SIGNIFICANT WILL BE A BIT OF HIGH CLOUDINESS WHICH MAY
CROSS NM LATER TONIGHT INTO AT LEAST FRI MORN.
IMPOSING UPPER RIDGE WILL BE DIRECTLY OVER THE STATE FRI WITH H5
PRESSURE HEIGHTS REACHING AT SUMMER LIKE LEVELS. RESULT WILL BE
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WITH ABOVE AVERAGE AFTN TEMPS AREAWIDE AND
AT LEAST A FEW RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGHS...NAMELY IN NE THIRD OR
SO OF THE STATE. FOR THE MOST PART STAYED ON LOW SIDE OF...OR A
BIT BELOW...GUIDANCE AS IT IS LATE OCTOBER AND ALSO LOOKING AT NOT
MUCH OF A WARMING DOWNSLOPE FACTOR. SAT SHOULD BE A NEAR REPEAT
PERFORMANCE TEMPERATURE WISE. MORE HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO FILTER
IN FROM THE W AND SW BETWEEN LATE SAT AND SUN.
AS WINDS ALOFT STRENGTHEN WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH SUN THE
LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS AND STRENGTHENS AS WELL THUS...THE
STRONGER DOWNSLOPING BREEZES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
NORMAL IN THE EAST...A BIT LESS SO WEST. SOME FURTHER STRENGTHENING
GRADIENT AND WINDS ALOFT WILL GIVE WAY TO A TROUGH PASSAGE MON.
FORECAST MODELS ARE IN BETTER THOUGH NOT PERFECT AGREEMENT ON
STRENGTH AND TIMING OF UPPER TROUGH AS IT CROSSES THE STATE.
CANADIAN AND ECMWF ARE SOMEWHAT MORE BULLISH THAN THE GFS ON
RELATIVELY LOW QPF POPS ACROSS NORTH THIRD TO HALF OF NM SUN TO
MON...BUT HAVE KEPT POPS LOWER THAN WHAT THE FORMER TWO MODELS
IMPLY.
43
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER...NOT EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK.
MODELS...IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON NEXT
WEEK...WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN PATTERN TIMING AND FEATURE PLACEMENT
EMERGING FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD. RIDGE CORE SQUARELY OVER NEW MEXICO
WILL PLAY AGAINST INBOUND WEST COAST TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE
EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA TO PACIFIC WATERS WELL OFF THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA COAST. TROUGH WILL DIG TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SWING
ASHORE ON SATURDAY AS RIDGE CORE NUDGES EASTWARD TO THE HEART OF
TEXAS. TROUGH BASE WILL SHEAR EASTWARD RAPIDLY ACROSS NEW MEXICO
WITH TRAILING WAVE SWEEPING INTO WESTERN NEW MEXICO MONDAY MORNING
AND INTO TEXAS BY MONDAY NIGHT. FLOW WILL GRADUALLY SHEAR NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE TROUGH HEADING INTO MIDWEEK. MODELS DIVERGING FROM
WEDNESDAY ONWARD...WITH EUROPEAN COLLEAGUES AT ECMWF BACKING FLOW
ALOFT TO ZONAL ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN TO SOUTHWEST BY THE WEEKEND AS
NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO THE LAKE
TAHOE REGION OF NORTHWEST NEVADA...AND RIDGE CORE BUILDS OVER EAST
TEXAS. PATTERN LEAVES NEW MEXICO IN STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT FROM MIDWEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. DOMESTIC GFS SOLUTION...IN
CONTRAST...DIGS TROUGH RAPIDLY OUT OF OTHERWISE ZONAL FLOW FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS STATES TO THE TEXAS BIG BEND COUNTRY ON
WEDNESDAY...AND ACCELERATES THIS FEATURE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY FRIDAY MORNING...LEAVING NEW MEXICO
UNDER WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...AND FINALLY UNDER A DOMINATING
RIDGE CORE BY THE WEEKEND. ECMWF SOLUTION SEEMS A SMOOTHER AND
EASIER TRANSITION OUT OF MIDWEEK AGREEMENT...WITH GFS SOLUTION
REQUIRING SOME SHARPER AMPLIFICATIONS UP AND DOWNSTREAM IN ORDER TO
GET THE DESIRED EFFECT OVER NEW MEXICO. WILL TILT FORECAST THINKING
TOWARD ECMWF PLAN PENDING BETTER FORECAST AGREEMENT FOR THE LAST
HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.
OVERNIGHT...STEADY TEMPERATURE REGIME OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS.
FOG WILL DEVELOP MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF A RUIDOSO TO TUCUMCARI
LINE OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS.
FOR FRIDAY...RIDGE CORE REMAINING SQUARELY OVER NEW MEXICO...AS DOME
OF HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OVER THE FOUR CORNERS. WARMING TREND
CONTINUING...WITH 10 TO 20 DEGREE WARM EXCURSIONS ABOVE NORMAL OVER
THE EAST AND NORTHEAST. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL RUN IN THE UPPER
TEENS PCT OVER THE NORTH...AND IN THE 20S PCT OVER THE
SOUTH....REFLECTIVE OF A DRYING IN CONCERT WITH THE WARMING.
VENTILATION DEGRADED IN THE WEST...AND ONLY MARGINALLY BETTER IN THE
EAST. FAIR TO GOOD HUMIDITY RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT...WITH EXCELLENT
RECOVERIES OVER THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS UNDER FOGGY CONDITIONS FRIDAY
NIGHT.
FOR SATURDAY...STEADY TEMPERATURES RUNNING 10 TO 20 DEGREES WARMER
THAN NORMAL FOR ANOTHER DAY WITH HUMIDITIES REMAINING IN THE TEENS
NORTH AND 20S SOUTH. VENTILATION IMPROVING TO GOOD TO VERY GOOD
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY WITH SOME INCREASES IN TRANSPORT WINDS AS
RIDGE CORE SLIDES EASTWARD INTO THE HEART OF TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST
WIND SPEEDS PICK UP OVER NEW MEXICO BEHIND THE RIDGE CORE. GENERALLY
LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
FOR SUNDAY...APPROACHING TROUGH WILL SHEAR ACROSS NEW MEXICO WITH
DRAMATIC UP TICK IN WIND SPEEDS ALOFT...AND QUICK TURBULENCE PICKING
UP IN THE FLOW. COOLER PUSH INTO THE NORTH AND WEST WILL WALK THESE
TEMPERATURES BACK FROM RECORD VALUES...WITH LESS CHANGE IN ANOTHER
WARM DAY OVER THE EAST AND SOUTH. PATTERN WILL BRING BOOSTS TO
HUMIDITIES WITH ASSOCIATED MOISTURE BOOST...WITH MOST SPOTS
BOTTOMING IN THE 20S AND UPPER TEENS PCT SUNDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FROM THE
ARIZONA LINE TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...AND ACROSS THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. VENTILATION QUALITY WILL ENJOY ANOTHER BOOST AND
END UP IN THE EXCELLENT CATEGORY WITH STRONG TRANSPORT WINDS AND
CONTINUED ELEVATED MIXING HEIGHTS. TURBULENCE IN FLOW OVERHEAD
SUNDAY NIGHT COMBINED WITH MOISTURE MAY HELP SUPPORT SOME NORTHERN
MOUNTAIN OVERNIGHT SHOWERS...AND SOME SNOW OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY
NEAR THE COLORADO LINE. EXCELLENT HUMIDITY RECOVERIES OVER THE NORTH
AND WEST...WITH GOOD RECOVERY OVER THE SOUTH AND EAST.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SPOTTY SHOWER COVERAGE OVER THE
NORTHERN HIGH COUNTRY MONDAY NIGHT SHIFTING TO THE EAST TUESDAY
BEFORE ENDING TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS PAIR OF SHORTWAVES WORKS THROUGH
RAPIDLY UNDER THE BASE OF A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S.
COOLING TREND TO START THE WEEK WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID
WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW NORMAL BY TUESDAY AND
RECOVERING SLOWLY BACK TOWARD NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY. HUMIDITIES
REMAINING IN THE 20S AND TEENS PCT...WITH DRYING TRENDS SHIFTING OUT
OF THE EAST AND INTO THE WEST THROUGH MIDWEEK. GUSTY FLOW OVERHEAD
WILL SUPPORT GUSTY SURFACE WINDS OVER THE EASTERN FOOTHILLS OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SPEEDS DROPPED OFF
RAPIDLY ON TUESDAY AS COOL PUSH INVADES EASTERN NEW MEXICO FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES AS THE DYNAMIC ACTION ALOFT BARRELS INTO
TEXAS. LOW LEVEL WIND DIRECTIONS SWINGING AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH SOME AFTERNOON BREEZES OVER THE EASTERN FOOTHILLS
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
SHY
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
258 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014
UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...CENTERED
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN PLAINS...EXTENDING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WESTERN PLAINS. THIS WILL HELP TO GIVE EXTREMELY MILD
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR TODAY...BUT LOOKS TO BE SHORT OF
RECORDS AS THEY ARE STILL IN THE 80S.
BUT FIRST...PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY HAVE TO CONTEND WITH
MORNING FOG AGAIN. THE ORGANIZED AREA OF DENSE FOG IS TO THE EAST OF
OUR FORECAST AREA...WITH SOME INDICATIONS PER THE HRRR AND RAP13
THAT THIS FOG MAY BACK INTO OUR EXTREME EASTERN ZONES AROUND SUNRISE
WHEN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW DECREASES. THEREFORE KEPT AREAS OF FOG GOING
IN THAT AREA AROUND SPENCER AND STORM LAKE IA. ELSEWHERE DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE ARE CREEPING UP...ADVECTING NORTHWARD
FROM NEB. IN ADDITION...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS MOVING SLOWLY
EASTWARD...CURRENTLY BETWEEN CHAMBERLAIN AND THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
AS IT MOVES EASTWARD...THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE
IN THE PRE DAWN HOURS ALONG THE I 29 CORRIDOR AND EAST CENTRAL SD.
SURFACE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE ALREADY GETTING SMALL IN EAST
CENTRAL SD...WHERE AGAIN THE HRRR AND RAP13 DEVELOP FOG BY
SUNRISE...THEN DRAIN SOME OF IT SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD PIPESTONE AND
LUVERNE MN ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE BUFFALO RIDGE. ACCOUNTED FOR
THIS POSSIBILITY IN THE FORECAST BY ADDING AN AREAS OF FOG MENTION
FOR OUR EAST CENTRAL SD ZONES. OTHERWISE ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT SHOULD
ABATE BY AROUND 15Z OR SLIGHTLY LATER...LEAVING SOME CIRRUS IN PLACE
FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. BUT HIGHS LOOK VERY MILD...WITH THE RAW
BIAS CORRECTED VALUES LOOKING THE BEST IN GIVING READINGS WELL INTO
THE 70S. WINDS AS THEY SHIFT TO THE WEST OR NORTHWEST WILL ALSO NOT
BECOME VERY STRONG AT ALL...SO LOOKS LIKE A VERY PLEASANT AFTERNOON.
NOT A LOT GOING ON TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. GENERALLY
LOOKING AT LOWS ABOUT 40 TO 45 UNDER LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014
STILL LOOKS LIKE A PLEASANT WEEKEND ACROSS THE REGION WITH UPPER
RIDGING BUILDING IN. TEMPERATURES ALOFT COOL A BIT BEHIND TODAYS
FRONT...BUT SHOULD STILL SEE 60S AND 70S BOTH DAYS. BASED ON LATEST
GUIDANCE...DID BUMP HIGHS UP A TAD BOTH DAYS. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
SUNDAY...AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. COULD BE ENOUGH TO GET
SOME LOW STRATUS TO DEVELOP...WHICH IF IT DOES...COULD HOLD
TEMPERATURES DOWN. SO WILL STAY CONSERVATIVE ON HIGHS SUNDAY...BUT
IF IT STAYS SUNNY WILL LIKELY END UP WARMER THAN CURRENT FORECAST.
SHOULD STAY DRY THROUGH SUNDAY...AS DESPITE SOME FORCING...MID
LEVELS REMAIN QUITE DRY. LOOKING AT LOWS IN THE 40S SATURDAY NIGHT
AND CLOSER TO 50 SUNDAY NIGHT AS WE STAY MORE MIXED.
MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON EVOLUTION OF THE TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. BEST FORCING COMES POST
FRONTAL...AND LOOKS LIKE THE TROUGH WILL STAY POSITIVELY TITLED AS IT
SWINGS ACROSS. THUS FORCING AND MOISTURE NOT ALL THAT GREAT. STILL
LOOKS LIKE WE COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...BUT
NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT. WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
COLDER TEMPERATURES MOVING IN ALOFT...MONDAY WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE
50S AND 60S...WARMEST IN NORTHWEST IOWA.
COLDER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE TROUGH...WITH TUESDAY LIKELY THE
COOLEST DAY. WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN WHAT WE HAVE BEEN
SEEING...WITH LOW TO MID 50S EXPECTED. ALTHOUGH THESE VALUES ARE
ONLY SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE. SHOULD BE BREEZY ON TUESDAY AS
WELL...WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING AROUND 30 MPH. MODELS
DIVERGE MID WEEK...DUE TO DIFFERENCES ON STRENGTH OF OUR NEXT
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE. SO FOR NOW WILL STAY WITH CONSENSUS VALUES
FOR HIGHS...GIVING MID 50S. AT THIS TIME DOES NOT LOOK LIKE WE SEE
ANY GREAT RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHTS...WITH HIGH PRESSURE NEVER
SETTLING OVERHEAD. THUS DESPITE THE COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT...AS
OF NOW JUST GOING WITH LOWS IN THE 30S TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. NOT SEEING ANY GREAT PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH
THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS OF NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1031 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014
UNCERTAINTY REMAIN IN REGARDS TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS/FOG
LATE TONIGHT AND INTO DAYBREAK. CIRRUS REMAINS RATHER THICK ACROSS
THE AREA...HOLDING TEMPERATURES UP. HOWEVER...AS BREAKS
DEVELOP...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TOWARDS THE ELEVATED CROSSOVER
TEMPERATURE IN THE 46-47 DEGREE RANGE. A WEAK SFC LOW OVER
CENTRAL SD MAY ALSO ADVECT SHALLOW BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION...AND PRIOR TO A WEAK FRONT MOVING
THROUGH AROUND DAYBREAK...POTENTIAL CONTINUES FOR FOG/STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN LOWER CONFIDENCE ON COVERAGE OF LIFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS...WILL ONLY USE A TEMPO GROUP FOR FSD.
THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT DRIER AIR SHOULD FILTER QUICKLY INTO THE
AREA AFTER DAYBREAK AND SHOULD ALLOW SKIES TO SCOUR RATHER
QUICKLY. VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS LIKELY THROUGH
FRIDAY.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...CHENARD
AVIATION...DUX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1200 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014
.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.
&&
.AVIATION...
Main concern for the night/early morning is potential for areas of
dense fog. High resolution models NAM BUFR and HRRR rh progs are
supportive of dense fog in a strip from PEQ to INK to HOB and
another area across the SE PB and Lower Trans Pecos. For now have
included 1/4-3/4SM at all but FST/CNM and mainly between 10Z-15Z.
Otherwise winds are light and of little consequence.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
1147 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014
.AVIATION...
ALTHOUGH COMPUTER MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH FOG DEVELOPING IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS FOG WILL LIKELY RETURN EARLY FRIDAY MORNING TO
BOTH TAF SITES. HOWEVER THE DEGREE OF REDUCTION IN VISBYS IS
UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE POOR CONFIDENCE IN MODELS. THE ABUNDANT AMOUNT
OF MOISTURE SUGGESTS THAT VISBYS COULD DROP TO VLIFR AGAIN BY
DAYBREAK. LOW CIGS AND VISBYS WOULD LIKELY PERSIST FOR SEVERAL
HOURS AFTER SUNRISE SIMILAR TO THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/
SHORT TERM...
UPPER RIDGING GRADUALLY SPREADING IN FROM OUR WEST WILL MAINTAIN
QUIET WEATHER OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. STILL CONTENDING WITH DAMP
SURFACE CONDITIONS...HOWEVER...WHICH WILL CREATE SOME FOG
OPPORTUNITY TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF WINDOW
FOR SHALLOW RADIATION FOG DEVELOPMENT FROM NORTH-CENTRAL INTO
CENTRAL AREAS LATER THIS EVENING INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE WEAK BUT STILL SLIGHTLY CONVERGENT. HRRR
SOLUTIONS THE PAST FEW HOURS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT SHOWING SOME
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT FOG AT LEAST...THOUGH WE DO NOT SEE INDICATIONS
IN THE LATEST RAP OR WRF/NAM RUNS. STILL...HRRR HAS DONE A VERY GOOD
JOB TODAY TO THIS POINT AND WE WILL FOLLOW ITS LEAD. LATER IN THE
NIGHT THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD VEER ACROSS NORTH-NORTHWESTERN AREAS
WITH DIVERGENT TREND AND LESS RISK OF FOG AT THAT TIME. BETTER FOG
SIGNAL LATER TONIGHT RUNS FROM THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE
ROLLING PLAINS...AND MAINLY THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS WHERE WE
HAVE INDICATED AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. THIS WOULD HOLD BIGGEST RISK FOR SIGNIFICANT RESTRICTIONS
AS WELL AND HAVE INDICATED SUCH IN THE HAZARDOUS OUTLOOK. OTHERWISE
STRATUS BY MID TO LATE MORNING FRIDAY SHOULD BE GONE OR DISSOLVING
RAPIDLY AND A WARM DAY WILL LEAD INTO THE WEEKEND WITH LITTLE
DISAGREEMENT FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS. RMCQUEEN
LONG TERM...
UPPER RIDGING WILL KICK OFF THE EXTENDED AND PROVIDE A PERIOD OF
WARM AND DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RUN 10-15 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 80S THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
FEW LOWER 90S COULD EVEN MIX IN OFF THE CAPROCK. BREEZY SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL MATERIALIZE BY LATE WEEKEND AS A LARGE
WESTERN TROUGH BEGINS TO MAKE EASTWARD PROGRESS AND SURFACE
TROUGHING DEEPENS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. MONDAY WILL BRING
ANOTHER WARM DAY AS BREEZY DOWNSLOPING WINDS CONTINUE...BUT THE
APPROACHING MEAN WESTERN TROUGH WILL PROVIDE MODEST DEEP LAYER
COOLING WHICH SHOULD KNOCK SEVERAL DEGREES OFF THE HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON THE CAPROCK. AN INITIAL TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST TO PASS MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIKELY TRACKING OUT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SHORTWAVE...BUT IT CURRENTLY
APPEARS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE TOO LIMITED TO SUPPORT ANY
MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION CHANCES...THOUGH A ROGUE SPRINKLE OR VIRGA
SHOWER MAY BE POSSIBLE. THE ONE EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN ZONES...WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE MAY BE CLOSER BY...BUT EVEN
HERE THE PROSPECTS FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION DOES NOT LOOK VERY
GOOD AND WE HAVE MAINTAINED POPS NEAR 10 PERCENT.
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW THE INITIAL TROUGH PASSAGE AND USHER IN
AN AIR MASS OF PACIFIC ORIGIN MONDAY NIGHT. MORE SEASONABLE LATE
OCTOBER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
SETTING THE STAGE FOR MORE PLEASANT FALL WEATHER WITH MILD DAYS AND
COOL NIGHTS. ANOTHER PASSING UPPER LEVEL WAVE COULD SUPPLY A SECOND
WEAK COLD FRONT BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY...KEEPING
TEMPERATURES NEAR LATE OCTOBER NORMALS. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE
MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 51 84 50 84 50 / 0 0 0 0 0
TULIA 53 85 52 86 53 / 0 0 0 0 0
PLAINVIEW 54 84 53 85 53 / 0 0 0 0 0
LEVELLAND 55 84 51 84 51 / 0 0 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 55 84 55 85 55 / 0 0 0 0 0
DENVER CITY 56 83 52 83 52 / 0 0 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 56 84 52 83 53 / 0 0 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 59 89 57 92 56 / 0 0 0 0 0
SPUR 58 86 55 86 54 / 0 0 0 0 0
ASPERMONT 59 86 57 88 56 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
01
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
325 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 244 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014
FOG AND CLOUDS THE INITIAL CONCERN TODAY...THEN SMALL RAIN
CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 07Z NEPHANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE FOG ENHANCEMENT IMAGERY SHOWING EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUD
AND DENSE FOG SHROUDING THE FORECAST AREA. THIS THANKS TO THE
RAIN AND CLOUD COVER YESTERDAY. MEANWHILE A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WAS APPROACHING FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS WHICH WILL PASS THIS
AFTERNOON. WARM ADVECTION AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT SUGGESTED BY
MODELS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH SEVERAL OF THE SHORT TERM
MESOSCALE MODEL SOLUTIONS PAINTING SOME VERY LIGHT QPF ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA. PLENTY OF CHALLENGES TO CONTEND WITH.
FIRST...LOCAL STUDIES AND USE OF GOES-R CLOUD THICKNESS PRODUCT
SUGGEST THAT THE LOW CLOUD WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT TO MIX OUT.
COMBINE THAT WITH THE ADDED WARM ADVECTION AND MOISTURE
TRANSPORT...AS WELL AS MORE CLOUD COVER ALOFT TO LIMIT THE INFLUX
OF SUNSHINE TO HELP MIX AND ERODE THE BOUNDARY LAYER INVERSION...
OUR FEELING IS THAT THE AREA WILL STAY CLOUDY THROUGH THE DAY. DO
ANTICIPATE THAT THE DENSE FOG WILL LIFT...BUT WE MAY NEED TO
EXTEND THE ADVISORY BEYOND THE 10 AM EXPIRATION TIME IN SOME
AREAS.
WITH SHORT WAVE APPROACHING...WEAK Q-G SIGNAL SEEN IN THE LOWER
LAYERS. WHILE THE FORCING IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED...THERE IS ENOUGH
THAT WARRANTS INCLUSION OF LOW CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...MAINLY SOUTH OF I-90. THANKS
FOR THE COORDINATION MKX/DVN/DMX.
FOR TONIGHT...DO ANTICIPATE SOME CLEARING...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION REMAINS IN PLACE. FEEL THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR SOME AREAS OF FOG AGAIN. COULD BE SOME PATCHY AREAS
OF DENSE FOG...BUT DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN AT THIS TIME. WILL ALLOW
DAY SHIFT TO GET A BETTER GRASP ON POTENTIAL BASED ON WHAT
TRANSPIRES WITH RESPECT TO CLOUD/FOG/RAIN TODAY.
TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO BE SURPRESSED TODAY THANKS TO ALL OF THE
ABOVE...SO HAVE UNDERCUT PREVIOUS FORECAST AND EVEN GUIDANCE.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON SATURDAY...AND WILL BE CENTERED
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD SUNDAY MORNING. THUS A DRY AND MAINLY CLEAR
PERIOD IS ANTICIPATED. SOUTHERLY WINDS CRANK UP ON SUNDAY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT LONG WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM SASK/MT REGION.
WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH WILL
LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF CLOUD AND SOME SHOWERS. SOME QUESTION
ON HOW QUICKLY THE DEEPER SATURATION WILL TAKE PLACE FOR SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY NIGHT. BEST CHANCES DO APPEAR TO LIE ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR...BUT SPREAD OUT THE RAIN CHANCES TO
ACCOUNT FOR POSSIBLE EARLIER SATURATION. BRIEF DRY PERIOD AS
THE MAIN WARM ADVECTION WING MOVES NORTH. BUT THE COLD FRONT WILL
FOLLOW MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN LIKELY TO BE
MONDAY NIGHT...AND EVEN SOME SUPPORT FOR THUNDER. TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO BE QUITE MILD...ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY.
MAIN TROUGH PASSES ON TUESDAY...WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND COLD
ADVECTION LEADING TO POTENTIAL FOR MORE LIGHT SHOWERS. HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD PROVIDE FOR MAINLY DRY AND TRANQUIL WEATHER FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014
THE FOG HAS SETTLED IN AT BOTH TAF SITES WITH IFR CONDITIONS. THE
VISIBILITY HAS YET TO COME DOWN TO IFR AT KLSE AS THE VALLEY SEEMS
TO BE PROTECTING IT SOME...AS IT IS AT OTHER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY AIRPORTS. HOWEVER...BELIEVE THIS IS ONLY TEMPORARY AND WILL
CONTINUE THE TREND OF BRINGING THE VISIBILITY DOWN TO 1/4SM FOR
THE OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE TREND IN THE RAP THIS
EVENING HAS NOT BEEN AS QUICK TO DISSIPATE THE FOG AS THE
AFTERNOON RUNS SO HAVE HELD ON TO THE LOW VISIBILITIES THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE MORNING WITH THE LOW CEILINGS DISSIPATING DURING THE
LAST HALF OF THE MORNING. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A MID LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH COMING ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH
MIXED SIGNALS WHETHER THIS WILL PRODUCE A MVFR CEILING OR NOT. THE
24.00Z NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AND HAS MVFR
CEILINGS DEVELOPING EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THE 24.02Z RAP AND
24.00Z GFS HAVE ALSO TRENDED THIS WAY WHILE THE 23.21Z SREF MEAN
REMAINS DRIER. MIXED SIGNALS IN THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE AS WELL
WITH THE GFS BASED MOS AND LAMP GUIDANCE NOT SHOWING ANYTHING FOR
THE AFTERNOON WHILE THE NAM BASED MOS HAS THE MVFR CEILINGS. FOR
NOW...WILL CONTINUE WITH JUST SHOWING SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS AS
CONFIDENCE IN THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM REMAINS LOW.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ017-029-
032>034-041>044-053>055-061.
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ079-
086>088-094>096.
IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR IAZ008>011-
018-019-029-030.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...04
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014
THE LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A LOW LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING. BEHIND
THE TROUGH...RUC SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A LOWERING INVERSION WITH PLENTY
OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THIS INVERSION.
WIDESPREAD STRATUS AND FOG ARE SHOWING NO SIGNS OF BREAKING UP...AND
ARE EXPANDING WESTWARD INTO MINNESOTA. CURRENT VSBYS ARE LOCALLY
DENSE OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN...BUT MOST OF THE
VSBYS IN THIS AREA ARE BETWEEN 1/2 AND 1 1/2 SM. VSBYS FARTHER EAST
ARE BEHAVING BUT SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOWERING AS TEMPS CONTINUE TO
COOL TONIGHT. IN GENERAL THOUGH...VSBYS SEEM TO BE SLOWLY FALLING
SO WILL CONTINUE THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY EVEN THOUGH CRITERIA IS
TECHNICALLY NOT BEING MET. LOOKING UPSTREAM...A LARGE AREA OF
CIRRUS IS PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A
WEAK TROUGH IS POSITIONED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BUT IS INACTIVE AT
THE MOMENT. FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE FOG TRENDS FOLLOWED BY
CLOUDS/TEMPS.
TODAY...THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST INTO
MICHIGAN THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE...WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS AND FOG
WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH THE MORNING COMMUTE. CIRRUS...BROUGHT IN
BY A BEEFY 120KT JET STREAK WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING...AND LIKELY SLOW THE DISSIPATION OF THE STRATUS/FOG
DESPITE ITS SHALLOW NATURE. THINKING IT MAY TAKE UNTIL EARLY
AFTERNOON FOR THE STRATUS/FOG TO MIX OUT OVER CENTRAL AND
NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN WHERE CIRRUS WILL BE THICKER THAN FARTHER
EAST. ONCE IT BURNS OFF THOUGH...SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF FILTERED
SUNSHINE THROUGH THE CIRRUS. THERE WILL BE A WEAK LOW LEVEL TROUGH
THAT WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH
WILL BRING SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND 5KFT. SATURATION DEPTH IS VERY
SHALLOW...SO THINK THERE IS LITTLE CHANCE OF PRECIP. MIXING HEIGHTS
LOOK SHALLOW ONCE AGAIN SO USED A COMBO OF THE ECMWF AND CONS BLENDS
WHICH DROPPED HIGHS A DEGREE.
TONIGHT...THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN THIS EVENING. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SCT CLOUDS
WITH THIS TROUGH BUT THEN SHOULD SEE CLEARING ONCE THE TROUGH EXITS
OVERNIGHT. PROGGED SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT MOISTURE WILL AGAIN GET
TRAPPED BENEATH THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. BUT UNLIKE THIS
MORNING...WILL HAVE A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE. THIS WILL
MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP BUT COULD LEAD TO THE
GENERATION OF A LOW STRATUS DECK. CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW IF THIS
WILL OCCUR AND WILL PASS CONCERNS ON TO THE NEXT SHIFT. LOWS MAINLY
IN THE 40S.
SATURDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE LAKE SUPERIOR WILL
SEND A COOL FRONT ACROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE PERIOD. WEAK COLD
ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE THE ENTIRE DAY BUT SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
FROM THE WEST WHERE THE AIR IS STILL RELATIVELY MILD. THOUGH IT
WILL BE WINDY...TEMPS SHOULD STILL RISE INTO THE MID 50S NORTH TO
LOW 60S SOUTH WITH SUNNY SKIES.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014
MAIN FCST CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE THE SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
BEGINNING OF THIS FCST PERIOD LOOKS FAIRLY STRAIGHT FORWARD.
MODELS CONSISTENT IN SHOWING AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVER
THE STATE...WITH CLEAR SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES. DECREASED MIN
TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO AS MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARDS LOWER
TEMPS...AND CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHTER WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY DROP.
CONTINUED QUIET WEATHER ON SUNDAY QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL PUT THE AREA IN SOUTHERLY FLOW...WHICH
MEANS WARMING TEMPERATURES BUT INCREASING CLOUDS. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES HIGH TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...WITH
SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS WAA RAMPS UP
AND MOISTURE INCREASES. STILL SHOULD BE A NICE DAY.
THINGS START BECOMING MORE ACTIVE BEGINNING SUNDAY EVENING. A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA AFTER 00Z MONDAY...WHICH WILL
BRING PCPN TO THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. KEPT
THE GENERAL CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AS MODELS DISAGREE
WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND MODELS HAVE GENERAL LIGHT PCPN
OVERSPREADING THE AREA...WITH THE HEAVIEST QPF ARRIVING AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
MODELS BEGIN TO DISAGREE AFTER THAT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THEN INTENSIFIES OVER THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES REGION. GENERAL MODEL TRENDS WOULD HAVE SPOTTY LIGHT
PCPN CONTINUING ON MONDAY BEFORE THE SYSTEM STRENGTHENS IN
RESPONSE TO A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWEEPING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN CONUS. AFTER THE DAY ON MONDAY...MODELS HAVING
DIFFICULTIES WITH THE EXACT TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM.
LEANED TOWARDS THE ECMWF FOR THIS FCST AS IT SEEMED TO BE A GOOD
COMPROMISE BETWEEN ALL THE MODELS. IN ADDITION... THE 00Z ECMWF
PICKED UP ON THE FASTER MODEL TRENDS THAT HAVE BEEN NOTED ON MANY
OF THE OTHER MODELS. EITHER WAY...PCPN SHOULD INTENSIFY STARTING
MONDAY NIGHT AS FORCING INCREASES. IN ADDITION...KEPT THE
ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE FCST AS SOME ELEVATED CAPE IS NOTED ON THE
GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...AND THEN RAPID
INTENSIFICATION SHOULD RESULT IN SOME THUNDER MONDAY NIGHT.
RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE ON TUESDAY BEFORE THE LOW FINALLY IS SWEPT
AWAY WITH THE EXITING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE REST
OF THE FORECAST LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY AS A SURFACE
RIDGE AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MAKE THEIR WAY INTO THE REGION.
EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 TO 10F WARMER THAN NORMAL
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN BACK TO NEAR NORMAL HIGHS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1009 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014
LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AS
RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA.
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG WITH VSBYS 1/4 MILE OR LESS WILL IMPACT
MAINLY CENTRAL AND NORTHCENTRAL WISCONSIN WITH MORE PATCHY DENSE
FOG ELSEWHERE.
CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 15Z FRIDAY.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ005-010-
018-030-035-036-045.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......ALLEN
AVIATION.......ESB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1139 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 922 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014
THE FOG CONTINUES TO EXPAND ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH SOME
LOCATIONS ALREADY REPORTING DENSE FOG. EXPECT THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE WITH WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG POSSIBLE BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
THUS...PLAN TO MOVE THE START TIME OF THE ADVISORY UP TO THE
CURRENT TIME. SHOULD BE SLOW GOING FRIDAY MORNING COMMUTE WITH
VISIBILITIES OF A QUARTER MILE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...FOG LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRI
MORNING...TEMPERATURES/CLOUDS THRU THE PERIOD.
DATA ANALYSIS AT 18Z HAD THE BAND OF SHRA CONTINUING TO MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE WEST EDGE NEAR A KMDZ-KVOK-KOVS LINE. WV
IMAGERY SHOWED THE RATHER VIGOROUS MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE/TROUGH MOVING
STEADILY EAST ACROSS THE REGION. VIS IMAGERY SHOWED THE CLEARING
BEHIND THE TROUGH WAS SLOWER TO MOVE EAST...WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE/
IFR CLOUD DECKS TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION NEAR 900MB. EARLY
AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 40S IN THE SHRA OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN
WI...TO THE UPPER 50S-MID 60S IN THE SUNSHINE OVER SOUTHWEST MN.
23.12Z MODELS INITIALIZED WELL...EVEN GFS WITH ITS SFC DEWPOINTS
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/NORTHERN PLAINS. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH QUICKLY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND
SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN. CONSISTENT SIGNAL FOR A WEAK SHORTWAVE
FROM THE WEST TO WORK THRU THE SHORTWAVE RIDGING ACROSS REGION LATE
TONIGHT/FRI MORNING. MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT ON A SHORTWAVE/TOUGH
TO DROP TOWARD/ACROSS LK SUPERIOR FRI NIGHT. TREND FOR TONIGHT THRU
FRI NIGHT GENERALLY FAVORS A COMPROMISE OF THE EARLIER RUNS. SHORT
TERM FCST CONFIDENCE IS GOOD THIS CYCLE.
IN THE SHORT TERM...POST TROUGH DECREASE OF CLOUDS/CLEARING EXPECTED
TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE RIDGING/RISING HGTS
BUILD IN. RAIN/CLOUDS TODAY KEEPING T/TD SPREADS ON THE LOW SIDE
OVER THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS PLUS THE DECREASE OF CLOUDS
TONIGHT AND GRADIENT WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT ACROSS MOST OF
THE FCST AREA SETS THE STAGE FOR AREAS TO WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG
LATER TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. CONTINUED STRONG SIGNAL AMONG SREF
MEMBERS FOR VSBYS BELOW 1SM OVER THE EAST 2/3 OF THE FCST AREA
CENTERED ON 12Z FRI MORNING. BASED ON WHAT HAPPENED WITH DENSE FOG
ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL MN...EASTERN SD/NEB...WESTERN IA THIS MORNING...
UPON COORD WITH NEIGHBORS WILL ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE
ENTIRE FCST AREA FROM 06Z-15Z FRI.
MODEST ROUND OF LOWER LEVEL WARM ADVECTION/MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD
OF A SFC-700MB TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA FRI. THE MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FRI MORNING WHILE THE MAIN 925-
850MB MOISTURE INCREASE SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA FRI AFTERNOON/
EVENING. NAM INSISTS ON PRODUCING SOME LIGHT QPF ACROSS THE
SOUTH/WEST PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING BUT
THIS LOOKS OVERDONE DUE TO 1/ THE SHALLOWNESS OF THE MOISTURE 2/
MOISTURE IS UNDER AN INVERSION NEAR 850MB AND 3/ THE SHORTWAVE IS
WELL SOUTH/EAST OF THE AREA BY 00Z SAT. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
PATCHY -DZ BUT MOISTURE LOOKS EVEN TOO SHALLOW FOR THIS AND LEFT
FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING DRY. SOME INCREASE OF LOWER STRATO-CU CLOUDS
EXPECTED FOR FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING...IMPACTING TEMPERATURES. MIXED
925MB TEMPS FRI AFTERNOON WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID 60S-LOW
70S...BUT WITH POTENTIAL FOR THE LOWER AFTERNOON CLOUDS WILL LEAVE
FRI HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 60S. LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES
FRI EVENING...AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH/COLD FRONT WITH THE
LK SUPERIOR SHORTWAVE. 925MB TEMPS PEAK IN THE +13C TO +18C RANGE
AROUND 06Z SAT WITH THE STRONGER LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION ARRIVING
AROUND 12Z SAT. FRONT COMES THRU DRY FRI NIGHT AS 925-700MB LAYER
IS DRY. GIVEN BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS FOR MIXING FRI NIGHT BOTH AHEAD
OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT...FRI NIGHT LOWS CONTINUE TO LOOK QUITE
MILD FOR LATE OCT. USED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE LOWS/HIGHS FOR
TONIGHT THRU SAT NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOR SATURDAY THRU SUNDAY NIGHT...SHRA/TSRA
CHANCES SUN NIGHT...TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD.
23.12Z MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SAT THRU SUN AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PASSES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES EARLY SAT THEN HGTS OVER THE
REGION SLOWLY RISE LATER SAT THRU SUN. GOOD MODEL CONSISTENCY FOR
THE LONGWAVE RIDGE AXIS TO BE NEAR THE MS RIVER AT 00Z MON AND
LONGWAVE TROUGHING TO BE OVER THE ROCKIES. TREND AT 00Z MON FAVORS
SLOWER OF THE EARLIER MODEL RUNS. RIDGE AXIS QUICKLY MOVES EAST
SUN NIGHT WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BY 12Z MON AS THE
ROCKIES TROUGH BEGINS TO EJECT INTO THE PLAINS. FCST CONFIDENCE
FOR SAT THRU SUN NIGHT IS ON THE GOOD SIDE.
SAT THRU SUN DOMINATED BY CAN SFC HIGH PRESSURE. DRY NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA SAT/SAT NIGHT. LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
CONTINUES SAT BUT 925MB TEMPS IN +9C TO +13C AT 00Z SUN. UNDER
SUNNY SKIES...SAT HIGHS STILL LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S-MID 60S
EVEN WITH THE COLD ADVECTION. 925MB WINDS IN THE 25KT RANGE SAT
WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING MIXING TO 900MB SAT AFTERNOON...FOR
BRISK/BREEZY/GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. SFC RIDGE AXIS SLIDES ACROSS
THE AREA SAT NIGHT. WINDS DECOUPLE AND UNDER CLEAR SKIES STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING/LARGE DIURNAL SWING EXPECTED SAT NIGHT. SFC-
850MB RIDGE AXIS QUICKLY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA SUN WITH A RETURN
OF SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH LOW LEVEL FLOW/WARM ADVECTION. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN BEGINS TO SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST END OF THE
FCST AREA LATE SUN. INITIALLY A VERY DRY SFC-500MB AIRMASS TO
MOISTEN UP. THE MOISTURE/THETA-E AXIS AND STRONGER LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION REMAIN WEST/SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA THRU 00Z MON. LEFT
SUNDAY DRY FOR NOW BUT MAY YET NEED A SMALL -SHRA CHANCE ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST END OF THE FCST AREA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. LEAD
ROUND OF STRONGER/DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT/THETA-E
CONVERGENCE AND WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE PLAINS TROUGH/LOW
SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA SUN NIGHT. IMPROVING CONSENSUS FOR A WARM
FRONT AHEAD OF THE LOW IN THE PLAINS TO BE LIFTING ACROSS IA SUN
NIGHT...PROVIDING AN ADDED FOCUS/ISENTROPIC LIFTING MECHANISM
NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY. 250-500+ J/KG OF MUCAPE PROGGED IN THE
AIRMASS BEING LIFTED OVER THE WARM FRONT SUN NIGHT. CONSENSUS RAIN
CHANCES IN THE 20-50 PERCENT RANGE LOOK GOOD SUN NIGHT...AND
CONTINUED THE MENTION OF TSRA. GENERALLY STAYED WITH A BLEND OF
THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HIGHS/LOWS FOR SAT THRU SUN NIGHT.
FOR MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.../DAYS 4 TO 7/...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES MON/MON
NIGHT...SHRA CHANCES TUE/TUE NIGHT...TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD.
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS OF 23.00Z/23.12Z IN GOOD AGREEMENT MON AS
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PLAINS. REASONABLE AGREEMENT
AMONG MODELS TUE AS THE TROUGH/MAIN ENERGY LIFTS INTO THE MID/UPPER
MS VALLEY. TREND MON/TUE FAVORS A COMPROMISE OF THE EARLIER RUNS ON
TIMING/STRENGTH OF THIS TROUGH. RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN
ECMWF/GFS ON WED WITH BROAD TROUGHING OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL/EASTERN
NOAM AND SOME FORM OF RIDGING OVER THE US/CAN ROCKIES. DIFFERENCES
BY THU...MAINLY WITH PROGRESSIVENESS OF A NORTHWEST FLOW SHORTWAVE
INTO THE REGION...WHICH IS NOT UNUSUAL AT DAY 7. 23.12Z ECMWF/GFS IN
BETTER AGREEMENT THU THAN THEIR 23.00Z RUNS WERE. ECMWF OFFERS THE
BETTER RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY WED/THU. FCST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE TO
GOOD MON-WED THEN AVERAGE ON THU.
MOIST AIRMASS WITH UP TO 250-500 J/KG MUCAPE PROGGED OVER THE AREA
MON/MON NIGHT. THIS AHEAD THE SFC-MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
PLAINS AND LIFTING TOWARD THE REGION. PLENTY OF DETAIL DIFFERENCES
WITH THE STRENGTH/LOCATION OF THE SFC LOW/STRONGER FORCING LIFTING
TOWARD/ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AT THE DAY 4 TIME-FRAME BUT THE 20-
50 PERCENT SHRA/TSRA CHANCES PER THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS QUITE
REASONABLE FOR NOW. BY TUE THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE SFC-700MB LOW
AND MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTING ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A
DEFORMATION BAND OF MOISTURE/FORCING TO ROTATE ACROSS THE AREA.
AGAIN PLENTY OF DETAIL DIFFERENCES OUT IN DAY 5 BUT 25-50 PERCENT
SHRA CHANCES PER THE CONSENSUS GOOD AT THIS TIME. SFC THRU MID LEVEL
SYSTEM TO LIFT OUT TUE NIGHT...WITH DIMINISHING -SHRA CHANCES.
COOLER AIRMASS/WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN ITS
WAKE FOR WHAT SHOULD BE A DRY DAY WED. TIMING DIFFERENCES BY THU
IMPACT POTENTIAL -SHRA CHANCES SPREADING BACK INTO THE FCST AREA.
GIVEN LESSER CONFIDENCE OUT ON DAY 7...STAYED WITH THE MODEL/
ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS. GIVEN ALL THE LOWER LEVEL DETAIL DIFFERENCES IN
DAYS 4-7...THE BLEND OF THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HIGHS/LOWS
FOR MON-THU LOOK WELL TRENDED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014
THE FOG HAS SETTLED IN AT BOTH TAF SITES WITH IFR CONDITIONS. THE
VISIBILITY HAS YET TO COME DOWN TO IFR AT KLSE AS THE VALLEY SEEMS
TO BE PROTECTING IT SOME...AS IT IS AT OTHER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY AIRPORTS. HOWEVER...BELIEVE THIS IS ONLY TEMPORARY AND WILL
CONTINUE THE TREND OF BRINGING THE VISIBILITY DOWN TO 1/4SM FOR
THE OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE TREND IN THE RAP THIS
EVENING HAS NOT BEEN AS QUICK TO DISSIPATE THE FOG AS THE
AFTERNOON RUNS SO HAVE HELD ON TO THE LOW VISIBILITIES THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE MORNING WITH THE LOW CEILINGS DISSIPATING DURING THE
LAST HALF OF THE MORNING. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A MID LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH COMING ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH
MIXED SIGNALS WHETHER THIS WILL PRODUCE A MVFR CEILING OR NOT. THE
24.00Z NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AND HAS MVFR
CEILINGS DEVELOPING EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THE 24.02Z RAP AND
24.00Z GFS HAVE ALSO TRENDED THIS WAY WHILE THE 23.21Z SREF MEAN
REMAINS DRIER. MIXED SIGNALS IN THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE AS WELL
WITH THE GFS BASED MOS AND LAMP GUIDANCE NOT SHOWING ANYTHING FOR
THE AFTERNOON WHILE THE NAM BASED MOS HAS THE MVFR CEILINGS. FOR
NOW...WILL CONTINUE WITH JUST SHOWING SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS AS
CONFIDENCE IN THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM REMAINS LOW.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR WIZ017-029-032>034-
041>044-053>055-061.
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR MNZ079-086>088-
094>096.
IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR IAZ008>011-018-019-
029-030.
&&
$$
UPDATE...04
SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1059 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014
DRY AND MILD WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST ALL OF THE
SHORT TERM (TNGT THRU SAT MRNG). THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO
SLOWLY BUILDING HEIGHTS AND A DOMINANT LARGE-SCALE RIDGE ACROSS
THE CNTRL CONUS. THE MAIN ITEMS OF INTEREST WILL BE GUSTY
SOUTHWEST-WEST WINDS AND RELATIVELY WARM WEATHER.
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGES AND RAP MODEL ANALYSES INDICATED A
150-KT 300-MB JET CROSSING OVER THE PACIFIC NW WITH CONSIDERABLE
MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF THE NWRN CONUS. ALTHOUGH A
THICK PATCH OF CIRRUS MOVED ACROSS THE CWA EARLIER TODAY...THE WATER
VAPOR TRAJECTORY SUGGESTS THE BULK OF THE CIRRUS WILL REMAIN NW OF
THE CWA...ESPECIALLY LATE TNGT AND FRI AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS.
UNTIL THEN...EXPECT SOME PERIODIC DENSE CIRRUS PATCHES AS THE JET
INTERACTS WITH THE MOUNTAINS. BUFKIT TIME-SECTIONS FOR KCYS SUPPORT
THIS AS WELL.
GUSTY SOUTHWEST-WINDS WILL OCCUR ESPECIALLY NEAR RIDGE TOPS TNGT AS
700-MB FLOW IS 30-45 KT FROM THE WEST WITH WEAK COLD-ADVECTION THAT
WILL PROMOTE MIXING. LOOKS TO BE JUST BELOW HIGH WIND WRNG CRITERIA
BUT IT DOES BEAR WATCHING. ALTHOUGH GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO
FRIDAY THEY SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT MUTED AS 700-MB WIND SPEEDS DECREASE
BY 5-10 KT AND THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS.
GIVEN THE UPPER RIDGE AND 700-MB TEMPS OF 7-10C ACROSS THE CWA THE
TEMPS WILL BE 15-20F ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM...AND
APPROACHING RECORD LEVELS ON FRIDAY. THE RH ALSO WILL DROP TO NEAR
15 PERCENT ACROSS THE SERN WY PLAINS ON FRI AFTN. FRI NGT WILL AGAIN
BE QUITE MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014
UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY AS
RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST OF THE CWA DURING THE DAY. HIGHS WILL
BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA DURING THE DAY.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE
SHIFTS FURTHER EAST...ALLOWING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD
FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON
SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR AND WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE...WITH CHANCES SPREADING OVER THE REST OF THE CWA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AS COLDER AIR PUSHES IN SUNDAY NIGHT...SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY OVER AT
LEAST THE SOUTH CENTRAL WY MOUNTAINS.
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A WARMUP POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK.
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014
AVIATION IMPACTS WILL BE MINIMAL THROUGH THE UPCOMING PERIOD WITH
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING. THERE WILL BE A SCT-BKN200 CLOUD LAYER
MOVING OVERHEAD TONIGHT...BUT THIS TOO SHOULD LESSEN BY MIDDAY
FRIDAY. WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING
AIRFIELDS 15-16Z ON FRIDAY WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 KNOTS EXPECTED.
WINDS WILL RELAX AROUND SUNSET.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014
CONTINUED WARM AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS. EXPECT AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES TO FALL
INTO THE MID TO UPPER TEENS EACH AFTERNOON. FORTUNATELY...FUELS
ARE REPORTED AS GREEN FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING WHERE THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. SO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
SHOULD BE MINIMAL. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN CONSIDERABLY FROM
LATE SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY
TRACKS THROUGH THE ROCKIES.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BUNKERS/WFOUNR
LONG TERM...WFOUNR
AVIATION...CAH
FIRE WEATHER...WFOUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
1022 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014
.UPDATE...
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS LATE THIS MORNING. A FEW AREAS OF
SHOWERS ROTATING COUNTER-CLOCKWISE AROUND THE LOW CONTINUE TO
SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MIAMI-DADE COUNTY. TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THUS FAR ARE RANGING FROM JUST UNDER ONE INCH
ACROSS PORTIONS OF DOWNTOWN MIAMI TO OVER AN INCH ACROSS BISCAYNE
BAY. INTERMITTENT LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS
THESE AREAS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ACTIVITY SHOULD THEN BEGIN
TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS THE LOW PUSHES FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST
TAKING THE MAIN SHIELD OF RAIN WITH IT. UPDATED
POP...WEATHER...AND QPF GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST RADAR AND
SHORT TERM GUIDANCE TRENDS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 807 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014/
AVIATION...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ENTERING THE FLORIDA STRAITS WILL CONTINUE
TO PUSH TO THE NORTHEAST AND INTO THE BAHAMAN ISLANDS BY TONIGHT.
AS IT DOES...BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SLIDE BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AND
TOWARD THE EAST COAST SITES THIS MORNING. ACTIVITY APPEARS TO
WEAKEN AS IT PUSHES ONSHORE LEAVING ONLY SHRAS EXPECTED FOR EAST
COAST TAF SITES THIS MORNING TRANSITIONING TO VCSH INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD AS THE LOW DEEPENS AS IT PUSHES TO THE NORTHEAST.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014/
DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR AND RAP ANALYSIS FROM EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWED DEEP
MOISTURE MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS CUBA...THE FLORIDA STRAITS...AND
SOUTH FLORIDA. MUCH DRIER AIR WAS LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND
THE GULF OF MEXICO. A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE PENINSULA. AN AREA OF CONVECTION WAS LOCATED
ACROSS THE BAHAMAS SOUTHWARD TO CENTRAL CUBA AND MOVING OFF TO THE
EAST AND NORTHEAST. 850MB FLOW WAS 20-25 KNOTS ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND KEYS...AND THESE STRONGER
WINDS WERE MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND MIAMI-
DADE COUNTY. THIS WEAK JET WILL PROMOTE HIGHER RAINFALL EFFICIENCY.
RAINFALL COVERAGE WAS INCREASING ACROSS THE KEYS AND LOCAL ATLANTIC
WATERS...AND A BAND OF SHOWERS WAS MOVING INTO MIAMI-DADE COUNTY.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS BAND.
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN TIP OF
CUBA. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WILL DIG SOUTH
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL DEEPEN THE FRONTAL WAVE AS IT MOVES INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE AS THE REGION REMAINS TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. SOME
WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKE PLACE TODAY...BUT CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN
SOUTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE KEYS AND FLORIDA STRAITS. SO LEFT OUT
MENTION OF THUNDER. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE BOUNDARY...BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OVER
MIAMI-DADE AND SOUTHEAST BROWARD COUNTIES. A SHARP POP GRADIENT WILL
EXIST AGAIN TODAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS GLADES COUNTY
SOUTHWEST TO NAPLES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 80 TO THE MID 80S.
THE GFS IS THE STRONGEST AMONG THE MODEL GUIDANCE WITH THE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE AND HAS SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KNOTS OVER THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE DROPS TO AROUND 1000MB. THE
OTHER AVAILABLE GUIDANCE IS LOWER...WITH WINDS IN THE 25-30 KNOT
RANGE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT. THERE IS NO COLD AIR
ADVECTION...SO WILL NOT GO WITH A GALE AT THIS TIME. FOR THE AREAS
ALONG THE EAST COAST...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS
AS HIGH AS 35 MPH MID/LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT BEFORE
SUBSIDING. THIS IS JUST BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.
RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS AND INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC
AND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST GULF AND SOUTH
FLORIDA. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW...WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE 50S
TO LOW 60S. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF ON SATURDAY WILL BUILD EASTWARD
TO NORTH OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY...AND WINDS WILL VEER TO THE
NORTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...WITH EASTERLY FLOW AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL SLOWLY RISE BACK INTO THE
MID 70S FOR THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS DUE TO THE ONSHORE FLOW.
HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE IN THE MID 80S.
MARINE...
A FRONTAL WAVE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY ACROSS DEEP
SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-30 KNOTS ACROSS THE
REGIONAL WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE GULF STREAM TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND INTO THE BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND THEN
INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THIS EVENING AND ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS
ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION ON
SUNDAY AND ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 80 70 82 69 / 40 20 10 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 80 73 82 71 / 60 30 10 0
MIAMI 80 71 82 69 / 70 30 10 0
NAPLES 85 66 82 65 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR FLZ173.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-
173.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ630-650-651-
670-671.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ630.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ656-657-
676.
&&
$$
UPDATE...10/CD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
807 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014
.AVIATION...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ENTERING THE FLORIDA STRAITS WILL CONTINUE
TO PUSH TO THE NORTHEAST AND INTO THE BAHAMAN ISLANDS BY TONIGHT.
AS IT DOES...BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SLIDE BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AND
TOWARD THE EAST COAST SITES THIS MORNING. ACTIVITY APPEARS TO
WEAKEN AS IT PUSHES ONSHORE LEAVING ONLY SHRAS EXPECTED FOR EAST
COAST TAF SITES THIS MORNING TRANSITIONING TO VCSH INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD AS THE LOW DEEPENS AS IT PUSHES TO THE NORTHEAST.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014/
DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR AND RAP ANALYSIS FROM EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWED DEEP
MOISTURE MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS CUBA...THE FLORIDA STRAITS...AND
SOUTH FLORIDA. MUCH DRIER AIR WAS LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND
THE GULF OF MEXICO. A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE PENINSULA. AN AREA OF CONVECTION WAS LOCATED
ACROSS THE BAHAMAS SOUTHWARD TO CENTRAL CUBA AND MOVING OFF TO THE
EAST AND NORTHEAST. 850MB FLOW WAS 20-25 KNOTS ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND KEYS...AND THESE STRONGER
WINDS WERE MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND MIAMI-
DADE COUNTY. THIS WEAK JET WILL PROMOTE HIGHER RAINFALL EFFICIENCY.
RAINFALL COVERAGE WAS INCREASING ACROSS THE KEYS AND LOCAL ATLANTIC
WATERS...AND A BAND OF SHOWERS WAS MOVING INTO MIAMI-DADE COUNTY.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS BAND.
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN TIP OF
CUBA. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WILL DIG SOUTH
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL DEEPEN THE FRONTAL WAVE AS IT MOVES INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE AS THE REGION REMAINS TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. SOME
WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKE PLACE TODAY...BUT CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN
SOUTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE KEYS AND FLORIDA STRAITS. SO LEFT OUT
MENTION OF THUNDER. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE BOUNDARY...BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OVER
MIAMI-DADE AND SOUTHEAST BROWARD COUNTIES. A SHARP POP GRADIENT WILL
EXIST AGAIN TODAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS GLADES COUNTY
SOUTHWEST TO NAPLES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 80 TO THE MID 80S.
THE GFS IS THE STRONGEST AMONG THE MODEL GUIDANCE WITH THE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE AND HAS SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KNOTS OVER THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE DROPS TO AROUND 1000MB. THE
OTHER AVAILABLE GUIDANCE IS LOWER...WITH WINDS IN THE 25-30 KNOT
RANGE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT. THERE IS NO COLD AIR
ADVECTION...SO WILL NOT GO WITH A GALE AT THIS TIME. FOR THE AREAS
ALONG THE EAST COAST...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS
AS HIGH AS 35 MPH MID/LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT BEFORE
SUBSIDING. THIS IS JUST BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.
RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS AND INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC
AND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST GULF AND SOUTH
FLORIDA. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW...WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE 50S
TO LOW 60S. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF ON SATURDAY WILL BUILD EASTWARD
TO NORTH OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY...AND WINDS WILL VEER TO THE
NORTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...WITH EASTERLY FLOW AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL SLOWLY RISE BACK INTO THE
MID 70S FOR THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS DUE TO THE ONSHORE FLOW.
HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE IN THE MID 80S.
MARINE...
A FRONTAL WAVE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY ACROSS DEEP
SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-30 KNOTS ACROSS THE
REGIONAL WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE GULF STREAM TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND INTO THE BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND THEN
INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THIS EVENING AND ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS
ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION ON
SUNDAY AND ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 80 70 82 69 / 50 20 10 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 80 73 82 71 / 80 30 10 0
MIAMI 80 71 82 69 / 90 30 10 0
NAPLES 85 66 82 65 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR FLZ173.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ630-650-651-
670-671.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR AMZ630.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ656-657-
676.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....84/AK
AVIATION...10/CD
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1043 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1043 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014
Low clouds and fog continue to blanket west-central Illinois this
morning, mainly along/west of a Peoria to Taylorville line. A
Dense Fog Advisory remains in effect for this area through noon.
So far, very little erosion of the low cloud cover has been noted
on visible satellite imagery, although the process will likely
begin within the next hour or two, as it did yesterday across
Iowa. HRRR shows this as well, with skies becoming partly sunny
across all but the far northwest KILX CWA by mid-afternoon. If
trends continue, eastern Iowa/northwest Illinois may remain cloudy
for the entire day. Further east, southerly winds and at least
partial sunshine will help boost afternoon highs into the middle
to upper 60s across central Illinois. Forecast update has already
been issued.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 235 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014
A weak short wave continues to move through the eastern parts of the
CWA this morning, but this should be out of the state by time the
new forecast is issued, or shortly after. The main concern this
morning is the development and advection of stratus clouds and fog
early this morning. Dense fog is present across most of eastern Iowa
this morning and the HRRR model advects this into the area for this
morning. This will keep lots of clouds in the area for this morning,
and could affect max temps for this afternoon, depending on how
quickly the clouds dissipate. Models have it diminishing during
the late morning hours. And with winds becoming southerly by
afternoon, believe some dissipation of the clouds will happen. So
will have less clouds during the afternoon. However, afternoon
high temps may not be as high as first forecast, so have decreased
max temps 1-2 degrees from previous forecast. MAV guidance is
higher than MET by several degrees, so took a compromise between
the two due to cloud cover issues.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 235 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014
Main forecast issue this weekend and into Monday involves
temperatures. Latest model runs for Saturday have been warmer, as
main core of cooler air associated with a frontal boundary track
more across the Great Lakes region. Have bumped up Saturday highs by
a couple degrees. 850 mb warm front progged to lift through the area
late Saturday night and early Sunday, with +16C temperatures
spreading across central Illinois Sunday afternoon, lingering into
Monday. Have also raised highs several degrees both Sunday and
Monday, with a few 80 degree readings possible on Monday across
southwest and southeast portions of the forecast area. Record highs
for Monday are in the mid 80s and currently appear safe.
Split upper flow early next week focuses the deeper part of the next
wave along the northern stream. Model guidance is fairly uniform
with rain chances Monday night through about midday Tuesday, and
pretty much has the forecast area dry by sunset as a high pressure
ridge quickly builds into the mid-Mississippi Valley. However, the
guidance diverges later in the week. The ECMWF persists in a rather
broad trough along the Mississippi River midday Thursday, but now
significantly ramps up rain chances along the associated surface
front. The GFS has a weaker, more progressive wave with little
precipitation. Have leaned more toward the progressive solution for
now. The ECMWF also persists in developing a large closed low over
the Great Lakes late week, which would pump significantly cooler air
into Illinois. Meanwhile, the GFS builds a ridge eastward, with much
warmer air (850 mb temperatures range from -5C to +8C between the
two models). However, this particular aspect is just beyond the
current forecast range, but will need to be addressed with the
afternoon forecast issuance.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
ISSUED AT 644 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014
Complicated forecast for the first 6hrs with some of the TAFs this
morning. An area of stratus and very low vis is slowly moving east
into the area and is already effecting SPI, and should effect PIA
in next couple of hours. Question is how far east will this area
of IFR/LIFR conditions get...will it effect BMI/DEC and CMI.
Believe it will effect DEC and BMI some, but not as much as SPI
and PIA. Conditions should improve this morning, around 16z at PIA
and SPI, but still remain lower MVFR for the rest of the morning.
HRRR model brings some of the lower cigs into BMI and DEC, but not
as long. So going to be a little bit more optimistic at these
sites this morning and just have IFR cigs for this morning at DEC
and lower MVFR at BMI. CMI will have just a TEMPO group for cigs
around 1kft this morning. Conditions should be VFR this afternoon,
but models bring more MVFR cigs back into the area this evening
and continue into the overnight hours. Winds will be light and
variable this morning, but then become more south-southwest for
the rest of the TAF period. Speeds this afternoon will be around
5-10kts.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY until Noon CDT today FOR ILZ027>031-036-037-
040-041-047>051.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Barnes
SHORT TERM...Auten
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Auten
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
659 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014
.DISCUSSION...
326 AM CDT
SHORT TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING...THE INITIAL
CONCERN WILL BE CLOUD COVER...AND IMPACTS ON VISIBILITY. FOLLOWING
THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK SFC TROUGH/PACIFIC-SOURCED WEAK COLD
FRONT...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE HAS BUILT ACROSS THE REGION. A LOW
STRATUS DECK HAS BEEN IN PLACE FOLLOWING THE FROPA...BUT THE STRATUS
DECK IS ERODING IN PLACES...AND WITH CALM TO LGT/VRBL WINDS IN
PLACE...THE CLEARING LOCATIONS ARE EXPERIENCING RAPID FOG
DEVELOPMENT. THE FOG IS INITIALLY MOSTLY IMPACTING NWRN IL...ARND
THE ROCKFORD AREA...BUT AS THE STRATUS CONTINUES TO
DISSIPATE...ADDITIONAL FOG MAY DEVELOP...BUT ANY DENSE FOG SHOULD BE
LIMITED TO NORTH CENTRAL AND NWRN IL...AWAY FROM THE CHICAGO METRO
AREA. EXCEPT FOR LOCATIONS THAT CLEAR OUT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
GENERALLY BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S...EXCEPT FOR SOME
ISOLATED...SHELTERED LOW LYING AREAS...WHICH COULD RADIATE DOWN INTO
THE UPPER 40S.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF FRIDAY...THE WARMING TREND SHOULD CONTINUE AS
UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE
WESTERN PLAINS. THE MORNING STRATUS AND STRATOCU SHOULD DISSIPATE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...BUT TOTAL SUNSHINE WILL BE LIMITED AS A
THICK CIRRUS LAYER AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
JET STREAM DIVES OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE
MIDWEST. THE SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE IS ALSO INDICATING SOME SHORTWAVE
ENERGY OVERTOPPING THE RIDGE THIS EVENING...WITH SOME GUIDANCE
INDICATING A LITTLE QPF. HAVE A HARD TIME INTRODUCING ANY
MENTIONABLE POPS WITH THIS SYSTEM AS MOISTURE PROFILE FORECASTS ALSO
INDICATE LITTLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. HOWEVER...SOME OF THE HIGH RES
SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IS SHOWING SOME INCREASE RH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
UNDER INCREASINGLY SWLY FLOW...BUT AS FLOW OFF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
WILL BE LIMITED BY HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE CNTRL
APPALACHIANS THROUGH ERN TX...FEEL THAT THIS INCREASED RH COULD BE
MORE INDICATIVE OF SOME FOG POTENTIAL RATHER THAN PCPN POTENTIAL.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...UNDER INCREASING LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND
BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT...EXPECT THAT TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY WILL
LIKELY BE AROUND 5 DEGREES HIGHER THAN THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MIDDLE 60S. FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN MILD WITH DEWPOINTS
INCREASING INTO LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S THROUGH FRIDAY AND INTO FRIDAY
EVENING...SO OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY MORNING SHOULD BE UNSEASONABLY
MILD...AND ONLY DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.
KREIN
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
500MB TROUGH AXIS WILL BE PIVOTING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...WITH A TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING SOUTH AND
EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY MORNING.
MID-LVL HEIGHTS WILL STEADILY RISE AS THE RIDGE PARKED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS PUSHES EAST...BRINGING MILDER AIR TO THE REGION SAT
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPR 60S. THE FAR SOUTHERN CWFA COULD TOUCH 70
DEG SAT. TEMPS SUN ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER AS THE FLOW
BEGINS TO TRANSITION BRIEFLY INTO A QUASI-ZONAL SETUP. HOWEVER THIS
DOES NOT LOOK TO REMAIN VERY LONG...AS RIDGING RETURNS FOR MON AND
TEMPS SHUD QUICKLY WARM INTO THE 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. A WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT ACROSS THE AREA EARLY MON...AS SOUTHERLY
FLOW STRENGTHENS. EXPECT MUCH OF THE DAY MON TO REMAIN DRY...HOWEVER
LATE AFTN/EVE A DEVELOPING LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS MAY HELP TO
GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATE MON.
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE
RIDGING OVERHEAD WILL SHIFT EAST...WITH FLOW TRYING TO FLATTEN.
SUGGESTING THAT A SEMI-ZONAL SETUP MAY DEVELOP BY WED...WHICH WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. TEMPS SHUD RETURN TO
MORE SEASONAL CONDS TUE/WED.
BEACHLER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 12Z...
* MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE MORNING.
* MVFR CIGS/VIS LIKELY AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. IFR CIGS/VIS POSSIBLE.
KREIN
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK SFC TROUGH...HOWEVER...AN AREA OF
STRATUS FILTERED IN BEHIND THE WEAK BOUNDARY. LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE STRATUS IS BREAKING UP OVER NRN IL AND
IN LOCATIONS THAT HAD SEEN SOME PCPN YESTERDAY...MAINLY ARND THE
RFD AREA...SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS FORMED...THOUGH OF THE TAF
SITES...ONLY RFD HAS OBSERVED THE DENSE FOG. BASED ON THE LATEST
HIGH RES MODEL GUIDANCE AND SATELLITE TRENDS...ANTICIPTE THAT
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR OVER THE AREA BY LATE MORNING.
ANOTHER SFC TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS TO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL BECOME SSWLY
THOUGH THE DAY...THOUGH WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT...WIND
SPEEDS SHOULD BE LESS THAN 10KT THROUGH THE DAY. FOR THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS...A MODEST MID LEVEL IMPULSE IS EXPECTED TO CROSS
THE AREA INVOF THE WI/IL BORDER. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THIS
SYSTEM COULD TRIGGER SOME ISOLD/SCT -SHRA...BUT CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING AND COVERAGE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE PCPN IN THE TAFS AT THIS
TIME. CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAT MORE FOG SHOULD DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...PER THE LATEST HIGH RES MODEL RH
TIMESECTIONS...SO HAVE INTRODUCED IFR VIS FOR LATE THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. SOME GUIDANCE IS POINTING TOWARD THE POSSIBILITY OF
VIS DROPPING TO 1/4SM...BUT GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED...DO NOT HAVE HIGH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO DROP VIS LOWER
THAN 1SM FOR NOW.
KREIN
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 12Z...
* MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIG TRENDS THIS MORNING.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIG TRENDS LATE TONIGHT.
* LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN VIS TRENDS LATE TONIGHT.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS.
KREIN
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR. WX NIL.
SUNDAY...VFR. WX NIL.
MONDAY...VFR. WX NIL.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...CHANCE SHRA/SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT...SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR. WX NIL.
KREIN
&&
.MARINE...
215 AM CDT
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM WESTERN QUEBEC
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. THIS RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST OF THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...MEANWHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA
CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST TOWARDS HUDSON BAY SATURDAY. THE GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...THEN SLOWLY TURN
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY. AS THE LOW NEARS HUDSON BAY ON SATURDAY...A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL TRAIL AND SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN. THIS WILL RESULT IN WINDS TURNING WEST/NORTHWEST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. COOLER AIR WILL FLOW ACROSS THE LAKE
ALONG WITH A TIGHTENING GRADIENT...RESULTING IN INCREASING WINDS
NEARING 30KT AT TIMES. THEN ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
QUICKLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST/NORTHERN PLAINS
SUNDAY...STEADILY DIMINISHING THE GRADIENT. ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...THEN APPROACH LAKE MICHIGAN CLOSER TO MID-WEEK. THIS WILL
BRING WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH OCCASIONALLY WINDS GUSTING
TO 30KT.
BEACHLER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
644 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 235 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014
A weak short wave continues to move through the eastern parts of the
CWA this morning, but this should be out of the state by time the
new forecast is issued, or shortly after. The main concern this
morning is the development and advection of stratus clouds and fog
early this morning. Dense fog is present across most of eastern Iowa
this morning and the HRRR model advects this into the area for this
morning. This will keep lots of clouds in the area for this morning,
and could affect max temps for this afternoon, depending on how
quickly the clouds dissipate. Models have it diminishing during
the late morning hours. And with winds becoming southerly by
afternoon, believe some dissipation of the clouds will happen. So
will have less clouds during the afternoon. However, afternoon
high temps may not be as high as first forecast, so have decreased
max temps 1-2 degrees from previous forecast. MAV guidance is
higher than MET by several degrees, so took a compromise between
the two due to cloud cover issues.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 235 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014
Main forecast issue this weekend and into Monday involves
temperatures. Latest model runs for Saturday have been warmer, as
main core of cooler air associated with a frontal boundary track
more across the Great Lakes region. Have bumped up Saturday highs by
a couple degrees. 850 mb warm front progged to lift through the area
late Saturday night and early Sunday, with +16C temperatures
spreading across central Illinois Sunday afternoon, lingering into
Monday. Have also raised highs several degrees both Sunday and
Monday, with a few 80 degree readings possible on Monday across
southwest and southeast portions of the forecast area. Record highs
for Monday are in the mid 80s and currently appear safe.
Split upper flow early next week focuses the deeper part of the next
wave along the northern stream. Model guidance is fairly uniform
with rain chances Monday night through about midday Tuesday, and
pretty much has the forecast area dry by sunset as a high pressure
ridge quickly builds into the mid-Mississippi Valley. However, the
guidance diverges later in the week. The ECMWF persists in a rather
broad trough along the Mississippi River midday Thursday, but now
significantly ramps up rain chances along the associated surface
front. The GFS has a weaker, more progressive wave with little
precipitation. Have leaned more toward the progressive solution for
now. The ECMWF also persists in developing a large closed low over
the Great Lakes late week, which would pump significantly cooler air
into Illinois. Meanwhile, the GFS builds a ridge eastward, with much
warmer air (850 mb temperatures range from -5C to +8C between the
two models). However, this particular aspect is just beyond the
current forecast range, but will need to be addressed with the
afternoon forecast issuance.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
ISSUED AT 644 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014
Complicated forecast for the first 6hrs with some of the TAFs this
morning. An area of stratus and very low vis is slowly moving east
into the area and is already effecting SPI, and should effect PIA
in next couple of hours. Question is how far east will this area
of IFR/LIFR conditions get...will it effect BMI/DEC and CMI.
Believe it will effect DEC and BMI some, but not as much as SPI
and PIA. Conditions should improve this morning, around 16z at PIA
and SPI, but still remain lower MVFR for the rest of the morning.
HRRR model brings some of the lower cigs into BMI and DEC, but not
as long. So going to be a little bit more optimistic at these
sites this morning and just have IFR cigs for this morning at DEC
and lower MVFR at BMI. CMI will have just a TEMPO group for cigs
around 1kft this morning. Conditions should be VFR this afternoon,
but models bring more MVFR cigs back into the area this evening
and continue into the overnight hours. Winds will be light and
variable this morning, but then become more south-southwest for
the rest of the TAF period. Speeds this afternoon will be around
5-10kts.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Auten
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Auten
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
629 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014
UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...CENTERED
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN PLAINS...EXTENDING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WESTERN PLAINS. THIS WILL HELP TO GIVE EXTREMELY MILD
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR TODAY...BUT LOOKS TO BE SHORT OF
RECORDS AS THEY ARE STILL IN THE 80S.
BUT FIRST...PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY HAVE TO CONTEND WITH
MORNING FOG AGAIN. THE ORGANIZED AREA OF DENSE FOG IS TO THE EAST OF
OUR FORECAST AREA...WITH SOME INDICATIONS PER THE HRRR AND RAP13
THAT THIS FOG MAY BACK INTO OUR EXTREME EASTERN ZONES AROUND SUNRISE
WHEN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW DECREASES. THEREFORE KEPT AREAS OF FOG GOING
IN THAT AREA AROUND SPENCER AND STORM LAKE IA. ELSEWHERE DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE ARE CREEPING UP...ADVECTING NORTHWARD
FROM NEB. IN ADDITION...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS MOVING SLOWLY
EASTWARD...CURRENTLY BETWEEN CHAMBERLAIN AND THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
AS IT MOVES EASTWARD...THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE
IN THE PRE DAWN HOURS ALONG THE I 29 CORRIDOR AND EAST CENTRAL SD.
SURFACE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE ALREADY GETTING SMALL IN EAST
CENTRAL SD...WHERE AGAIN THE HRRR AND RAP13 DEVELOP FOG BY
SUNRISE...THEN DRAIN SOME OF IT SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD PIPESTONE AND
LUVERNE MN ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE BUFFALO RIDGE. ACCOUNTED FOR
THIS POSSIBILITY IN THE FORECAST BY ADDING AN AREAS OF FOG MENTION
FOR OUR EAST CENTRAL SD ZONES. OTHERWISE ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT SHOULD
ABATE BY AROUND 15Z OR SLIGHTLY LATER...LEAVING SOME CIRRUS IN PLACE
FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. BUT HIGHS LOOK VERY MILD...WITH THE RAW
BIAS CORRECTED VALUES LOOKING THE BEST IN GIVING READINGS WELL INTO
THE 70S. WINDS AS THEY SHIFT TO THE WEST OR NORTHWEST WILL ALSO NOT
BECOME VERY STRONG AT ALL...SO LOOKS LIKE A VERY PLEASANT AFTERNOON.
NOT A LOT GOING ON TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. GENERALLY
LOOKING AT LOWS ABOUT 40 TO 45 UNDER LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014
STILL LOOKS LIKE A PLEASANT WEEKEND ACROSS THE REGION WITH UPPER
RIDGING BUILDING IN. TEMPERATURES ALOFT COOL A BIT BEHIND TODAYS
FRONT...BUT SHOULD STILL SEE 60S AND 70S BOTH DAYS. BASED ON LATEST
GUIDANCE...DID BUMP HIGHS UP A TAD BOTH DAYS. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
SUNDAY...AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. COULD BE ENOUGH TO GET
SOME LOW STRATUS TO DEVELOP...WHICH IF IT DOES...COULD HOLD
TEMPERATURES DOWN. SO WILL STAY CONSERVATIVE ON HIGHS SUNDAY...BUT
IF IT STAYS SUNNY WILL LIKELY END UP WARMER THAN CURRENT FORECAST.
SHOULD STAY DRY THROUGH SUNDAY...AS DESPITE SOME FORCING...MID
LEVELS REMAIN QUITE DRY. LOOKING AT LOWS IN THE 40S SATURDAY NIGHT
AND CLOSER TO 50 SUNDAY NIGHT AS WE STAY MORE MIXED.
MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON EVOLUTION OF THE TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. BEST FORCING COMES POST
FRONTAL...AND LOOKS LIKE THE TROUGH WILL STAY POSITIVELY TITLED AS IT
SWINGS ACROSS. THUS FORCING AND MOISTURE NOT ALL THAT GREAT. STILL
LOOKS LIKE WE COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...BUT
NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT. WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
COLDER TEMPERATURES MOVING IN ALOFT...MONDAY WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE
50S AND 60S...WARMEST IN NORTHWEST IOWA.
COLDER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE TROUGH...WITH TUESDAY LIKELY THE
COOLEST DAY. WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN WHAT WE HAVE BEEN
SEEING...WITH LOW TO MID 50S EXPECTED. ALTHOUGH THESE VALUES ARE
ONLY SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE. SHOULD BE BREEZY ON TUESDAY AS
WELL...WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING AROUND 30 MPH. MODELS
DIVERGE MID WEEK...DUE TO DIFFERENCES ON STRENGTH OF OUR NEXT
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE. SO FOR NOW WILL STAY WITH CONSENSUS VALUES
FOR HIGHS...GIVING MID 50S. AT THIS TIME DOES NOT LOOK LIKE WE SEE
ANY GREAT RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHTS...WITH HIGH PRESSURE NEVER
SETTLING OVERHEAD. THUS DESPITE THE COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT...AS
OF NOW JUST GOING WITH LOWS IN THE 30S TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. NOT SEEING ANY GREAT PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH
THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS OF NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014
AVIATION WILL BE QUITE A CHALLENGE UNTIL MID MORNING. A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AT THIS TIME
HAVING PROGRESSED TO JUST EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. AREAS OF
FOG HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR THE AXIS OF THIS TROUGH...BUT IT IS
CERTAINLY NOT CONSISTENT...AND WORSE...THE THICK CIRRUS IS
OBSCURING THE FOG ON THE IR SATELLITE. CURRENT THOUGHTS ARE THAT
KHON SHOULD IMPROVE RATHER RAPIDLY AS THEIR SURFACE WINDS HAVE
GONE WESTERLY BEHIND THE TROUGH...AND IN FACT HAVE VERY RECENTLY
GONE UP TO 5SM ALREADY. SO MAY HAVE TO AMEND THEM AT 12Z TO GO A
BIT MORE OPTIMISTIC. KFSD IS PROBABLY THE MOST PROBLEMATIC
TAF...AS THE SURFACE TROUGH ENCROACHES IN ON THE SITE...FOGGY
CONDITIONS COULD GET QUITE CLOSE IN THE EARLY AND MID MORNING. SO
IT WILL NEED MONITORED CLOSELY. KSUX IS WARMING UP...HELPING TO
WIDEN THEIR SURFACE DEW POINT DEPRESSION...SO IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
FOG MAY NOT BE A SERIOUS ISSUE THERE. BUT AGAIN...THEY TOO WILL
NEED CLOSE MONITORING UNTIL MID MORNING AS THE TROUGH AXIS
APPROACHES AT THAT SITE ALSO. OTHERWISE AM EXPECTING MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS FROM MID TO LATE MORNING ONWARD...LASTING THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...CHENARD
AVIATION...MJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
616 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014
THE LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A LOW LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING. BEHIND
THE TROUGH...RUC SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A LOWERING INVERSION WITH PLENTY
OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THIS INVERSION.
WIDESPREAD STRATUS AND FOG ARE SHOWING NO SIGNS OF BREAKING UP...AND
ARE EXPANDING WESTWARD INTO MINNESOTA. CURRENT VSBYS ARE LOCALLY
DENSE OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN...BUT MOST OF THE
VSBYS IN THIS AREA ARE BETWEEN 1/2 AND 1 1/2 SM. VSBYS FARTHER EAST
ARE BEHAVING BUT SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOWERING AS TEMPS CONTINUE TO
COOL TONIGHT. IN GENERAL THOUGH...VSBYS SEEM TO BE SLOWLY FALLING
SO WILL CONTINUE THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY EVEN THOUGH CRITERIA IS
TECHNICALLY NOT BEING MET. LOOKING UPSTREAM...A LARGE AREA OF
CIRRUS IS PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A
WEAK TROUGH IS POSITIONED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BUT IS INACTIVE AT
THE MOMENT. FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE FOG TRENDS FOLLOWED BY
CLOUDS/TEMPS.
TODAY...THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST INTO
MICHIGAN THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE...WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS AND FOG
WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH THE MORNING COMMUTE. CIRRUS...BROUGHT IN
BY A BEEFY 120KT JET STREAK WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING...AND LIKELY SLOW THE DISSIPATION OF THE STRATUS/FOG
DESPITE ITS SHALLOW NATURE. THINKING IT MAY TAKE UNTIL EARLY
AFTERNOON FOR THE STRATUS/FOG TO MIX OUT OVER CENTRAL AND
NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN WHERE CIRRUS WILL BE THICKER THAN FARTHER
EAST. ONCE IT BURNS OFF THOUGH...SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF FILTERED
SUNSHINE THROUGH THE CIRRUS. THERE WILL BE A WEAK LOW LEVEL TROUGH
THAT WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH
WILL BRING SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND 5KFT. SATURATION DEPTH IS VERY
SHALLOW...SO THINK THERE IS LITTLE CHANCE OF PRECIP. MIXING HEIGHTS
LOOK SHALLOW ONCE AGAIN SO USED A COMBO OF THE ECMWF AND CONS BLENDS
WHICH DROPPED HIGHS A DEGREE.
TONIGHT...THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN THIS EVENING. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SCT CLOUDS
WITH THIS TROUGH BUT THEN SHOULD SEE CLEARING ONCE THE TROUGH EXITS
OVERNIGHT. PROGGED SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT MOISTURE WILL AGAIN GET
TRAPPED BENEATH THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. BUT UNLIKE THIS
MORNING...WILL HAVE A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE. THIS WILL
MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP BUT COULD LEAD TO THE
GENERATION OF A LOW STRATUS DECK. CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW IF THIS
WILL OCCUR AND WILL PASS CONCERNS ON TO THE NEXT SHIFT. LOWS MAINLY
IN THE 40S.
SATURDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE LAKE SUPERIOR WILL
SEND A COOL FRONT ACROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE PERIOD. WEAK COLD
ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE THE ENTIRE DAY BUT SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
FROM THE WEST WHERE THE AIR IS STILL RELATIVELY MILD. THOUGH IT
WILL BE WINDY...TEMPS SHOULD STILL RISE INTO THE MID 50S NORTH TO
LOW 60S SOUTH WITH SUNNY SKIES.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014
MAIN FCST CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE THE SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
BEGINNING OF THIS FCST PERIOD LOOKS FAIRLY STRAIGHT FORWARD.
MODELS CONSISTENT IN SHOWING AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVER
THE STATE...WITH CLEAR SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES. DECREASED MIN
TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO AS MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARDS LOWER
TEMPS...AND CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHTER WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY DROP.
CONTINUED QUIET WEATHER ON SUNDAY QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL PUT THE AREA IN SOUTHERLY FLOW...WHICH
MEANS WARMING TEMPERATURES BUT INCREASING CLOUDS. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES HIGH TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...WITH
SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS WAA RAMPS UP
AND MOISTURE INCREASES. STILL SHOULD BE A NICE DAY.
THINGS START BECOMING MORE ACTIVE BEGINNING SUNDAY EVENING. A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA AFTER 00Z MONDAY...WHICH WILL
BRING PCPN TO THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. KEPT
THE GENERAL CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AS MODELS DISAGREE
WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND MODELS HAVE GENERAL LIGHT PCPN
OVERSPREADING THE AREA...WITH THE HEAVIEST QPF ARRIVING AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
MODELS BEGIN TO DISAGREE AFTER THAT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THEN INTENSIFIES OVER THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES REGION. GENERAL MODEL TRENDS WOULD HAVE SPOTTY LIGHT
PCPN CONTINUING ON MONDAY BEFORE THE SYSTEM STRENGTHENS IN
RESPONSE TO A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWEEPING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN CONUS. AFTER THE DAY ON MONDAY...MODELS HAVING
DIFFICULTIES WITH THE EXACT TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM.
LEANED TOWARDS THE ECMWF FOR THIS FCST AS IT SEEMED TO BE A GOOD
COMPROMISE BETWEEN ALL THE MODELS. IN ADDITION... THE 00Z ECMWF
PICKED UP ON THE FASTER MODEL TRENDS THAT HAVE BEEN NOTED ON MANY
OF THE OTHER MODELS. EITHER WAY...PCPN SHOULD INTENSIFY STARTING
MONDAY NIGHT AS FORCING INCREASES. IN ADDITION...KEPT THE
ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE FCST AS SOME ELEVATED CAPE IS NOTED ON THE
GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...AND THEN RAPID
INTENSIFICATION SHOULD RESULT IN SOME THUNDER MONDAY NIGHT.
RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE ON TUESDAY BEFORE THE LOW FINALLY IS SWEPT
AWAY WITH THE EXITING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE REST
OF THE FORECAST LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY AS A SURFACE
RIDGE AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MAKE THEIR WAY INTO THE REGION.
EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 TO 10F WARMER THAN NORMAL
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN BACK TO NEAR NORMAL HIGHS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 616 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014
WIDESPREAD LOW CIGS AND FOG WILL BE SLOW TO BURN OFF THIS MORNING AS
A RESULT OF CIRRUS SLOWING DOWN THE DIURNAL WARMING CURVE. BUT
ANTICIPATE SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER AROUND 15Z TO POSSIBLY
VFR BY MIDDAY. SOME CONCERN THAT BKN MVFR CIGS COULD LINGER UNTIL
MID-AFTERNOON THOUGH. A WEAK LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING AN AREA OF
3-5KFT CLOUDS TO THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
THEN ONCE THIS TROUGH DEPARTS...MODELS ARE SUGGESTING LOW STRATUS
AND/OR FOG COULD REFORM LATE TONIGHT. THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE
MORE MIXY SO THINK THAT THE PROBABILITY OF DENSE FOG IS LOW...BUT
THE FORMATION OF LOW STRATUS IS A BETTER BET. WILL LET THE NEXT
SHIFT ANALYZE FURTHER BEFORE ADDING IFR CIGS.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ005-010-
018-030-035-036-045.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......ALLEN
AVIATION.......MPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
325 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014
.DISCUSSION...
THE MAJOR SYNOPTIC FEATURES INFLUENCING THE REGION INCLUDE AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH BUILDING INTO THE EASTERN GULF...A SURFACE LOW EXTENDING
ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS AND
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS. WITH STRONG
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION...OVER-RUNNING ACROSS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO GENERATE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND SOUTH FLORIDA...WITH MOST OF THE SHOWERS
CONCENTRATED ACROSS BISCAYNE BAY AND SOUTHEAST MIAMI DADE COUNTY.
THE GENERAL CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE IS FOR A DRYING TREND OVER
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF MID TO UPPER
LEVEL DRIER AIR STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE REGION...THE BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE STRAITS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD AND HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINNING TO BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEAST SHOULD ALL
CONTRIBUTE TO THE DRYING TREND. THE GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE
LATEST HRRR RUN...SEEMED A LITTLE TOO FAST IN THE DRYING TREND AND
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE SOUTHEAST
PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA IS INDICATED IN THE FORECAST THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT. BUT BY 12Z SATURDAY ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
INDICATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS WITH NO SHOWERS FOR
THE PENINSULA.
THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR THE ATLANTIC COAST BEACHES HAS BEEN
EXTENDED THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY WITH HAZARDOUS SEAS ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z
SATURDAY AND COULD LINGER A BIT LONGER...MAY HAVE TO ADJUST THE
RIP CURRENT RISK WITH UPDATED FORECAST AND CONDITIONS ON
SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE AND STABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
PREVAIL SATURDAY THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH MAINLY
CLIMATOLOGICAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
&&
.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS IS THROUGH
12Z SATURDAY. FOR THE GULF WATERS...THE SCA IS MAINLY FOR WINDS
ABOVE 20 KNOTS...IN THE 20 TO 22 KNOT RANGE...AND MAINLY IN THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE OFF SHORE WATERS AND THE NEAR SHORE WATERS
WEST OF MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE
WIND FORECAST...BUT REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 20 KNOTS ARE OBSERVED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA
KEYS AND WEST OF KEY WEST.
FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS...REGIONAL WINDS IN EXCESS OF 20 KNOTS ARE NOTED
THE ATLANTIC WATERS...INCLUDING BISCAYNE BAY. IN ADDITION SEAS
ABOVE ADVISORY LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO STAY ABOVE ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z SATURDAY AND FORECAST TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE
THEREAFTER.
AS CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 71 81 68 81 / 20 10 10 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 73 81 70 82 / 40 10 10 10
MIAMI 72 82 68 83 / 50 10 0 10
NAPLES 65 81 64 83 / 10 10 0 0
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR FLZ173.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR FLZ168-172-
173.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ630-650-651-
670-671.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR AMZ630.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR GMZ656-657-676.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...59/RM
LONG TERM....60/BD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
203 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014
.AVIATION...
HEAVIER RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE
FLORIDA STRAITS CONTINUE TO PULL TO THE SOUTH AND AWAY FROM THE
EAST COAST SITES. REMOVED SHRA MENTION FROM ALL SITES EXCEPT FOR
KTMB FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO PUSH TO THE
NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE TRENDS
SHOW THE DRY AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND IT. VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
AWAY FROM ANY LINGERING SHRAS. NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD THEN TURN
MORE TO THE NORTH LATER THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1022 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014/
UPDATE...
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS LATE THIS MORNING. A FEW AREAS OF
SHOWERS ROTATING COUNTER-CLOCKWISE AROUND THE LOW CONTINUE TO
SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MIAMI-DADE COUNTY. TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THUS FAR ARE RANGING FROM JUST UNDER ONE INCH
ACROSS PORTIONS OF DOWNTOWN MIAMI TO OVER AN INCH ACROSS BISCAYNE
BAY. INTERMITTENT LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS
THESE AREAS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ACTIVITY SHOULD THEN BEGIN
TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS THE LOW PUSHES FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST
TAKING THE MAIN SHIELD OF RAIN WITH IT. UPDATED
POP...WEATHER...AND QPF GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST RADAR AND
SHORT TERM GUIDANCE TRENDS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014/
DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR AND RAP ANALYSIS FROM EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWED DEEP
MOISTURE MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS CUBA...THE FLORIDA STRAITS...AND
SOUTH FLORIDA. MUCH DRIER AIR WAS LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND
THE GULF OF MEXICO. A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE PENINSULA. AN AREA OF CONVECTION WAS LOCATED
ACROSS THE BAHAMAS SOUTHWARD TO CENTRAL CUBA AND MOVING OFF TO THE
EAST AND NORTHEAST. 850MB FLOW WAS 20-25 KNOTS ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND KEYS...AND THESE STRONGER
WINDS WERE MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND MIAMI-
DADE COUNTY. THIS WEAK JET WILL PROMOTE HIGHER RAINFALL EFFICIENCY.
RAINFALL COVERAGE WAS INCREASING ACROSS THE KEYS AND LOCAL ATLANTIC
WATERS...AND A BAND OF SHOWERS WAS MOVING INTO MIAMI-DADE COUNTY.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS BAND.
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN TIP OF
CUBA. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WILL DIG SOUTH
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL DEEPEN THE FRONTAL WAVE AS IT MOVES INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE AS THE REGION REMAINS TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. SOME
WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKE PLACE TODAY...BUT CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN
SOUTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE KEYS AND FLORIDA STRAITS. SO LEFT OUT
MENTION OF THUNDER. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE BOUNDARY...BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OVER
MIAMI-DADE AND SOUTHEAST BROWARD COUNTIES. A SHARP POP GRADIENT WILL
EXIST AGAIN TODAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS GLADES COUNTY
SOUTHWEST TO NAPLES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 80 TO THE MID 80S.
THE GFS IS THE STRONGEST AMONG THE MODEL GUIDANCE WITH THE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE AND HAS SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KNOTS OVER THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE DROPS TO AROUND 1000MB. THE
OTHER AVAILABLE GUIDANCE IS LOWER...WITH WINDS IN THE 25-30 KNOT
RANGE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT. THERE IS NO COLD AIR
ADVECTION...SO WILL NOT GO WITH A GALE AT THIS TIME. FOR THE AREAS
ALONG THE EAST COAST...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS
AS HIGH AS 35 MPH MID/LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT BEFORE
SUBSIDING. THIS IS JUST BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.
RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS AND INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC
AND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST GULF AND SOUTH
FLORIDA. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW...WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE 50S
TO LOW 60S. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF ON SATURDAY WILL BUILD EASTWARD
TO NORTH OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY...AND WINDS WILL VEER TO THE
NORTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...WITH EASTERLY FLOW AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL SLOWLY RISE BACK INTO THE
MID 70S FOR THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS DUE TO THE ONSHORE FLOW.
HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE IN THE MID 80S.
MARINE...
A FRONTAL WAVE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY ACROSS DEEP
SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-30 KNOTS ACROSS THE
REGIONAL WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE GULF STREAM TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND INTO THE BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND THEN
INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THIS EVENING AND ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS
ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION ON
SUNDAY AND ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 70 82 69 82 / 20 10 10 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 73 82 71 83 / 40 10 10 10
MIAMI 71 82 69 83 / 50 10 0 10
NAPLES 66 82 65 82 / 10 10 0 0
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR FLZ173.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-
173.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ630-650-651-
670-671.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ630.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ656-657-
676.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
507 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014
.DISCUSSION...
304 PM CDT
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...
BROAD SURFACE HIGH STRETCHES FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON WHILE
LOW PRESSURE LIES OVER ONTARIO WITH A COLD FRONT STRETCHING INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. A NARROW RIBBON OF MOISTURE IS ANALYZED OUT AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT WITH 60 DEGREE DEWPOINTS STRETCHING NORTH INTO
NORTHERN IOWA THIS AFTERNOON...AND JUST OFF THE DECK A CORRIDOR OF
LOW/MID LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION IS DRIVING AT LEAST A FEW VERY WEAK
RADAR RETURNS OVER FAR SE MN AND NE IA. RAP/HRRR GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS
AREA PERSISTING ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS THIS EVENING WITH THE
CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS. GIVEN THE VERY SPARSE COVERAGE SO FAR
UPSTREAM AND THE DRY SOUNDINGS/LIMITED DURATION OF FORCING...NOT
BITING OFF ON PRECIP MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...BUT WILL
MAINTAIN SOME LOW END SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SINCE THERE ARE SOME
INGREDIENTS IN PLACE.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
WEAK FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY ON SATURDAY WITH DRY AIR
FILTERING BACK INTO THE REGION AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
AREA AND SUBSIDENCE SETS IN OVERHEAD. EXPECT DEW POINTS TO MIX OUT
NICELY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS
WHERE DEW POINTS MAY DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S. THE DRY
CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A NICE RESPONSE FROM DIABATIC HEATING
WHICH WILL RESULT IN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER TOMORROW.
MEANWHILE...SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
SATURDAY DIRECTLY OVERHEAD EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WHICH WILL ALLOW
FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING SUNDAY MORNING WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO
THE 30S IN OUTLYING AREAS AND SOME OF THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS.
ELSEWHERE EXPECT LOW 40S WITH DOWNTOWN CHICAGO STAYING PROPPED UP IN
THE MID 40S. TEMPERATURES MAY BE A BIT TRICKY SUNDAY WITH WARM
ADVECTION ALOFT INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
SURFACE HIGH. A COOL STARTING POINT AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE DAY WILL KEEP HIGHS ONLY INTO THE 60S SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUCKLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DIGS FROM THE PAC NW INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. BROAD SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL SHIFT EAST TOWARDS THE MIDWEST
EARLY MONDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASING OUT AHEAD AND A CORRIDOR
OF MODERATE TO STRONG MID LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION LIFTING ACROSS THE
LOCAL FORECAST AREA ON THE NOSE OF A 40KT OR SO LOW LEVEL JET.
COLUMN IS FAIRLY DRY OUT AHEAD OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE BUT A NARROW
LAYER OF SATURATION COULD TAP INTO SOME MODEST INSTABILITY ROOTED
BETWEEN H7-H9. THIS DOES POINT TO SOME CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
THOUGH CHANCES ARE BETTER TO OUR NORTH WHERE THE MUCAPE ALIGNS
BETTER WITH THE FORCING FROM THE LOW LEVEL JET. EXPECT LOWERING
CLOUDS IN THE PREDAWN HOURS AS THE SURFACE WARM FRONT APPROACHES.
THE MID LEVELS DRY OUT AGAIN AND THE MOISTURE IS FAIRLY SHALLOW SO
ANY ADDITIONAL PRECIP EARLY ON MONDAY MAY JUST BE DRIZZLE. SURFACE
WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA MID MORNING MONDAY AND EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS ONCE IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH LOW CLOUD COVER EVENTUALLY
SCATTERING. H85 TEMPS WARM TO 15-16C WITH 17C BEING THE 99TH
PERCENTILE OF UPPER AIR CLIMO FOR THE END OF OCTOBER. SURFACE HIGHS
WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL...POSSIBLY PUSHING 20F ABOVE
NORMAL...THOUGH THE RECORD HIGH SHOULD BE SAFE. LEANED HEAVILY ON
EC/ECBC FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS MONDAY FORECASTING MID 70S...WITH UPPER
70S SOUTH OF I-80. THE WARMER CONDITIONS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
STRONGER WINDS HOWEVER WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 20 TO 25 MPH AND
POSSIBLY 30 MPH AT TIMES.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
MODELS ARE INDICATING A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO
DEVELOP OVER THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A COLD FRONT SWEEPING
ACROSS THE ARE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY BRINGING CHANCES FOR
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE LOW REALLY BEGINS TO DEEPEN IN EARNEST
AS IT LIFTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO CANADA TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH DRIVING POLAR AIR SOUTH INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES
AND A COLD POLAR HIGH GRAZING THE LOCAL AREA LATE NEXT WEEK. DETAILS
STILL MURKY THIS FAR OUT BUT DOES APPEAR WE COULD BE IN FOR A BIG
COOL DOWN LATE NEXT WEEK IN TIME FOR HALLOWEEN IF CURRENT GFS/ECMWF
RUNS PAN OUT.
DEUBELBEISS
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 22Z...
* CIGS LOWER THIS EVENING...MVFR POSSIBLE AFTER 03-04Z.
* MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE TONIGHT.
* SLIGHT CHANCE -SHRA LATE THIS EVENING.
MDB/RATZER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 22Z...
LAKE BREEZE REMAINS LIMITED TO IMMEDIATE COOK COUNTY SHORELINE AND
PARTS OF EASTERN LAKE COUNTY IL AT 22Z...AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
A FACTOR FOR CHICAGO TERMINALS AS WINDS BACK SOUTHWEST. OTHERWISE...
AN AREA OF MVFR/IFR CLOUDINESS OVER EASTERN IA/SOUTHWEST WI
CONTINUES TO BE MONITORED AS IT MOVES EAST. EXTRAPOLATION OF SATELLITE
IMAGES INDICATES ARRIVAL AFTER 01Z FOR RFD AND AFTER 03-04Z FOR
CHICAGO TERMINALS.
RATZER
FROM 18Z...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION CONTINUES TO PROVIDE LIGHT WINDS
WHICH HAVE BEEN VARIABLE BETWEEN SOUTH AND WEST. WILL SEE A
STEADIER SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST DIRECTION DEVELOP INTO THE EVENING AS
THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD. FEW-SCT MVFR CLOUDS LINGER ACROSS
NORTHWEST INDIANA WITH MOST AREAS VFR. LOW CIGS/VSBY REMAIN ACROSS
RFD BUT IS QUICKLY ERODING NORTHWESTWARD SO EXPECT VFR AT RFD BY
19Z OR SO.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WHICH WILL BRING
LOWERING CLOUD COVER. EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TO AT LEAST LOW END VFR
WITH MVFR POSSIBLE GOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE BUT SHOULD BE BRIEF AND SPOTTY IN COVERAGE. CIGS MAY
FURTHER LOWER TO LOWER END MVFR OVERNIGHT BUT AM NOT HIGHLY
CONFIDENT IN THIS OCCURRING. MAY ALSO SEE VSBY LOWER TO MVFR ACROSS
MOST AREAS AS WELL. AM A LITTLE MORE CONCERNED ABOUT IFR POTENTIAL
AT RFD GIVEN HIGHER RESIDUAL MOISTURE THANKS TO THE STRATUS/FOG
HANGING ON SO LONG TODAY. MAY NEED TO CARRY LOWER CONDITIONS WITH
LATER UPDATES. WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY SATURDAY MORNING AS
DRIER AIR WORKS IN. THIS WILL ERODE ANY LOW CIGS/VSBY ALLOWING FOR
VFR TO PREVAIL BY MID/LATE MORNING IF NOT SOONER.
MDB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 22Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS LOWERING TO LOWER END VFR THIS
EVENING...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN MVFR VSBY TONIGHT.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THREAT FOR -SHRA IS LOW LATE THIS EVENING.
MDB/RATZER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR. WX NIL.
SUNDAY...VFR. WX NIL.
MONDAY...VFR. WX NIL.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...CHANCE SHRA/SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT...SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR. WX NIL.
KREIN
&&
.MARINE...
228 PM CDT
HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOWLY PUSHING EAST WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER
THE LAKE. A WEAK LAKE BREEZE HAS TURNED WINDS ONSHORE OVER LAKE
COUNTY IL. SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO 20-25 KT THIS EVENING WITH
OCNL 30 KT GUSTS PSBL OVER THE NORTH HALF OF THE LAKE OVERNIGHT.
WINDS TURN W 20-25 KT BEHIND THE FRONT AND SLOWLY BECOME NW SATURDAY
NIGHT. POINTS NORTH OF WILMETTE HARBOR MAY SEE OCNL GUSTS TO 25 KT
TOMORROW...BUT THINKING SUSTAINED SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE
MET. WINDS DIMINISH AS A HIGH MOVES OVER THE LAKE SUNDAY. WINDS
BECOME SOUTH BEHIND THE LOW AND THEN TURN SE AND INCREASE TO 20-25
KT AS THE NEXT LOW APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF
VARIABILITY IN THE STRENGTH AND PATH OF THE NEXT LOW SO CONFIDENCE
IS LOW IN THE EXACT WIND SPEEDS. ONE MODEL DOES FEATURE WESTERLY
GALES ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT DO NOT HAVE
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO GO THAT HIGH IN THE FORECAST JUST YET. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN MID NEXT WEEK AND WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISH WEDNESDAY.
STILL THINKING THERE IS A MARGINAL CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
TO BE MET MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON
HEADLINES FOR NOW.
JEE
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
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[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
311 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014
19z/2pm satellite imagery shows low clouds that persisted for much
of the day across west-central Illinois have finally dissipated,
with just one small patch remaining from south of Lincoln to near
Taylorville. Based on satellite trends, this patch will dissipate
over the next hour or so as well, leading to mostly clear skies late
this afternoon into the early evening. Main short-term forecast
concern will be the potential re-development of low clouds/fog
tonight as a weak trough of low pressure moves through the area.
While the overall depth of the atmosphere will be very dry, a
shallow surface-based moist layer will remain in place. With no
deep-layer moisture to work with, precip is not expected to develop
along the trough despite the NAM hinting at some overnight. As winds
become light/variable and cloud cover associated with the passing
trough begins to clear from northwest to southeast after midnight,
fog will begin to develop. HRRR is showing widespread fog once
again forming across central/eastern Iowa, then spreading into the
Illinois River Valley toward dawn. As a result, will carry areas of
fog along/west of the Illinois River, with patchy fog as far east as
Champaign/Danville. Due to cloud cover and light southerly winds,
low temperatures will be quite a bit warmer than in recent nights,
with readings remaining in the lower to middle 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Friday)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014
Saturday will start off with some morning fog, mainly N of I-70. The
fog should burn off around mid-morning, as a cold front pushes east
across IL. Some cooler air associated with the front will be mainly
confined to northern IL, with our 850mb temps still remaining the
12-14C range in the post-frontal airmass. Dry-adiabatic warming of
that layer to the surface, coupled with some sunshine should help
push high temps into the low 70s N of I-74 with upper 70s S of
I-70. NW winds will still develop behind the front, so a brief
chill may be added to the air at times.
Mid level warming will develop Saturday night into Sunday, as 850mb
temps climb toward +16C. That warm layer will linger into Monday.
Southerly winds will develop Sunday afternoon once the surface ridge
axis moves east of IL, so highs should once again climb into the 70s
across the board. On Monday, a few 80 degree readings will possible
on Monday across southwest and southeast portions of the forecast
area, which would be nearly 20 degrees above normal for late
October. Record highs for Monday are in the mid 80s and currently
appear safe.
A long wave trough is forecast to move across the northern
Plains on Monday night, with cold front progressing across IL
Tuesday morning and early afternoon. The ECMWF indicates a more
dynamic system developing in the western Great Lakes on Tuesday,
while the GFS remains a bit more progressive and less strong with
the frontal passage in our area of IL. We did maintain widespread
chance PoPs Monday night, as moisture pooling and lift still appear
to be sufficient a band of rain to affect central IL. We continued
the likely PoPs in SE Illinois for Tuesday, but chances should
diminish Tue afternoon as the main forcing for precip departs into
Indiana, and dry air quickly filters into the area aloft.
A significant cool down is agreed upon by the GFS and ECMWF for
Tuesday and Tuesday night, as 850mb temps plummet to 0 to -3C by
midday Wednesday. That will bring temps back below normal for highs
Wed, with upper 50s north of I-74, with low 60s south near
Jacksonville to Lawrenceville.
Another cold front is indicated for Thursday, with better agreement
on timing of the front between the GFS and ECMWF. Confidence is
increasing that a band of light rain showers may accompany that
front. So low chances for rain was added to the Thurs forecast,
mainly from the Illinois river to I-55.
The GFS is a about 4-5 degrees colder than the ECMWF behind the
front, with 850mb readings in the -2 to -4C range Friday afternoon.
We will continue with the cooling trend for late week. Some freezing
temps could develop for Friday night N of I-74 if the GFS scenario
pans out.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014
Low clouds are rapidly dissipating across the area early this
afternoon, with 1730z visible satellite imagery showing one
persistent band from KGBG to KTAZ. Based on satellite trends,
will hold on to IFR ceilings at KSPI for one more hour before
clearing things out by 19z. Once these clouds dissipate, only
FEW-SCT diurnal Cu and high/thin cirrus will be noted for the
balance of the day. Main aviation question will be how low
ceilings will go tonight as trough axis approaches from the
northwest. NAM forecast soundings and latest HRRR both suggest at
least MVFR ceilings spreading in from the NW between 02z and 05z.
This band of low clouds will begin clearing out after midnight,
which will likely lead to fog development toward dawn. Given a
similar airmass to last night and winds expected to become
light/variable in the vicinity of the trough, have reduced visbys
to between 1 and 3 miles at the terminals. Once the trough passes,
winds will veer to the W/NW and any low clouds/fog will clear out
by Saturday morning.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Shimon
AVIATION...Barnes
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
259 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014
.DISCUSSION...
326 AM CDT
SHORT TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING...THE INITIAL
CONCERN WILL BE CLOUD COVER...AND IMPACTS ON VISIBILITY. FOLLOWING
THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK SFC TROUGH/PACIFIC-SOURCED WEAK COLD
FRONT...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE HAS BUILT ACROSS THE REGION. A LOW
STRATUS DECK HAS BEEN IN PLACE FOLLOWING THE FROPA...BUT THE STRATUS
DECK IS ERODING IN PLACES...AND WITH CALM TO LGT/VRBL WINDS IN
PLACE...THE CLEARING LOCATIONS ARE EXPERIENCING RAPID FOG
DEVELOPMENT. THE FOG IS INITIALLY MOSTLY IMPACTING NWRN IL...ARND
THE ROCKFORD AREA...BUT AS THE STRATUS CONTINUES TO
DISSIPATE...ADDITIONAL FOG MAY DEVELOP...BUT ANY DENSE FOG SHOULD BE
LIMITED TO NORTH CENTRAL AND NWRN IL...AWAY FROM THE CHICAGO METRO
AREA. EXCEPT FOR LOCATIONS THAT CLEAR OUT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
GENERALLY BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S...EXCEPT FOR SOME
ISOLATED...SHELTERED LOW LYING AREAS...WHICH COULD RADIATE DOWN INTO
THE UPPER 40S.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF FRIDAY...THE WARMING TREND SHOULD CONTINUE AS
UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE
WESTERN PLAINS. THE MORNING STRATUS AND STRATOCU SHOULD DISSIPATE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...BUT TOTAL SUNSHINE WILL BE LIMITED AS A
THICK CIRRUS LAYER AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
JET STREAM DIVES OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE
MIDWEST. THE SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE IS ALSO INDICATING SOME SHORTWAVE
ENERGY OVERTOPPING THE RIDGE THIS EVENING...WITH SOME GUIDANCE
INDICATING A LITTLE QPF. HAVE A HARD TIME INTRODUCING ANY
MENTIONABLE POPS WITH THIS SYSTEM AS MOISTURE PROFILE FORECASTS ALSO
INDICATE LITTLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. HOWEVER...SOME OF THE HIGH RES
SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IS SHOWING SOME INCREASE RH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
UNDER INCREASINGLY SWLY FLOW...BUT AS FLOW OFF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
WILL BE LIMITED BY HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE CNTRL
APPALACHIANS THROUGH ERN TX...FEEL THAT THIS INCREASED RH COULD BE
MORE INDICATIVE OF SOME FOG POTENTIAL RATHER THAN PCPN POTENTIAL.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...UNDER INCREASING LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND
BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT...EXPECT THAT TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY WILL
LIKELY BE AROUND 5 DEGREES HIGHER THAN THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MIDDLE 60S. FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN MILD WITH DEWPOINTS
INCREASING INTO LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S THROUGH FRIDAY AND INTO FRIDAY
EVENING...SO OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY MORNING SHOULD BE UNSEASONABLY
MILD...AND ONLY DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.
KREIN
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
500MB TROUGH AXIS WILL BE PIVOTING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...WITH A TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING SOUTH AND
EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY MORNING.
MID-LVL HEIGHTS WILL STEADILY RISE AS THE RIDGE PARKED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS PUSHES EAST...BRINGING MILDER AIR TO THE REGION SAT
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPR 60S. THE FAR SOUTHERN CWFA COULD TOUCH 70
DEG SAT. TEMPS SUN ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER AS THE FLOW
BEGINS TO TRANSITION BRIEFLY INTO A QUASI-ZONAL SETUP. HOWEVER THIS
DOES NOT LOOK TO REMAIN VERY LONG...AS RIDGING RETURNS FOR MON AND
TEMPS SHUD QUICKLY WARM INTO THE 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. A WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT ACROSS THE AREA EARLY MON...AS SOUTHERLY
FLOW STRENGTHENS. EXPECT MUCH OF THE DAY MON TO REMAIN DRY...HOWEVER
LATE AFTN/EVE A DEVELOPING LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS MAY HELP TO
GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATE MON.
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE
RIDGING OVERHEAD WILL SHIFT EAST...WITH FLOW TRYING TO FLATTEN.
SUGGESTING THAT A SEMI-ZONAL SETUP MAY DEVELOP BY WED...WHICH WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. TEMPS SHUD RETURN TO
MORE SEASONAL CONDS TUE/WED.
BEACHLER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...
* CIGS LOWER THIS EVENING...MVFR POSSIBLE.
* MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE TONIGHT.
* SLIGHT CHANCE -SHRA LATE THIS EVENING.
MDB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 20Z...
IFR HAS CLEARED RFD AND SHOULD STAY AWAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY HAS DEVELOPED CLOSE TO THE LAKESHORE AND HAS
MADE INLAND PROGRESS ACROSS LAKE COUNTY ILLINOIS. EXPECT THIS TO
REMAIN EAST OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE
EXPECT LIGHT WINDS WITH A VARIABLE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST DIRECTION.
FROM 18Z...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION CONTINUES TO PROVIDE LIGHT WINDS
WHICH HAVE BEEN VARIABLE BETWEEN SOUTH AND WEST. WILL SEE A
STEADIER SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST DIRECTION DEVELOP INTO THE EVENING AS
THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD. FEW-SCT MVFR CLOUDS LINGER ACROSS
NORTHWEST INDIANA WITH MOST AREAS VFR. LOW CIGS/VSBY REMAIN ACROSS
RFD BUT IS QUICKLY ERODING NORTHWESTWARD SO EXPECT VFR AT RFD BY
19Z OR SO.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WHICH WILL BRING
LOWERING CLOUD COVER. EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TO AT LEAST LOW END VFR
WITH MVFR POSSIBLE GOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE BUT SHOULD BE BRIEF AND SPOTTY IN COVERAGE. CIGS MAY
FURTHER LOWER TO LOWER END MVFR OVERNIGHT BUT AM NOT HIGHLY
CONFIDENT IN THIS OCCURRING. MAY ALSO SEE VSBY LOWER TO MVFR ACROSS
MOST AREAS AS WELL. AM A LITTLE MORE CONCERNED ABOUT IFR POTENTIAL
AT RFD GIVEN HIGHER RESIDUAL MOISTURE THANKS TO THE STRATUS/FOG
HANGING ON SO LONG TODAY. MAY NEED TO CARRY LOWER CONDITIONS WITH
LATER UPDATES. WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY SATURDAY MORNING AS
DRIER AIR WORKS IN. THIS WILL ERODE ANY LOW CIGS/VSBY ALLOWING FOR
VFR TO PREVAIL BY MID/LATE MORNING IF NOT SOONER.
MDB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS LOWERING TO LOWER END VFR THIS
EVENING...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN MVFR VSBY TONIGHT.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THREAT FOR -SHRA IS LOW LATE THIS EVENING.
MDB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR. WX NIL.
SUNDAY...VFR. WX NIL.
MONDAY...VFR. WX NIL.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...CHANCE SHRA/SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT...SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR. WX NIL.
KREIN
&&
.MARINE...
228 PM CDT
HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOWLY PUSHING EAST WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER
THE LAKE. A WEAK LAKE BREEZE HAS TURNED WINDS ONSHORE OVER LAKE
COUNTY IL. SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO 20-25 KT THIS EVENING WITH
OCNL 30 KT GUSTS PSBL OVER THE NORTH HALF OF THE LAKE OVERNIGHT.
WINDS TURN W 20-25 KT BEHIND THE FRONT AND SLOWLY BECOME NW SATURDAY
NIGHT. POINTS NORTH OF WILMETTE HARBOR MAY SEE OCNL GUSTS TO 25 KT
TOMORROW...BUT THINKING SUSTAINED SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE
MET. WINDS DIMINISH AS A HIGH MOVES OVER THE LAKE SUNDAY. WINDS
BECOME SOUTH BEHIND THE LOW AND THEN TURN SE AND INCREASE TO 20-25
KT AS THE NEXT LOW APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF
VARIABILITY IN THE STRENGTH AND PATH OF THE NEXT LOW SO CONFIDENCE
IS LOW IN THE EXACT WIND SPEEDS. ONE MODEL DOES FEATURE WESTERLY
GALES ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT DO NOT HAVE
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO GO THAT HIGH IN THE FORECAST JUST YET. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN MID NEXT WEEK AND WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISH WEDNESDAY.
STILL THINKING THERE IS A MARGINAL CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
TO BE MET MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON
HEADLINES FOR NOW.
JEE
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
250 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014
19z/2pm satellite imagery shows low clouds that persisted for much
of the day across west-central Illinois have finally dissipated,
with just one small patch remaining from south of Lincoln to near
Taylorville. Based on satellite trends, this patch will dissipate
over the next hour or so as well, leading to mostly clear skies late
this afternoon into the early evening. Main short-term forecast
concern will be the potential re-development of low clouds/fog
tonight as a weak trough of low pressure moves through the area.
While the overall depth of the atmosphere will be very dry, a
shallow surface-based moist layer will remain in place. With no
deep-layer moisture to work with, precip is not expected to develop
along the trough despite the NAM hinting at some overnight. As winds
become light/variable and cloud cover associated with the passing
trough begins to clear from northwest to southeast after midnight,
fog will begin to develop. HRRR is showing widespread fog once
again forming across central/eastern Iowa, then spreading into the
Illinois River Valley toward dawn. As a result, will carry areas of
fog along/west of the Illinois River, with patchy fog as far east as
Champaign/Danville. Due to cloud cover and light southerly winds,
low temperatures will be quite a bit warmer than in recent nights,
with readings remaining in the lower to middle 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Friday)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014
Saturday will start off with some morning fog, mainly N of I-70. The
fog should burn off around mid-morning, as a cold front pushes east
across IL. Some cooler air associated with the front will be mainly
confined to northern IL, with our 850mb temps still remaining the
12-14C range in the post-frontal airmass. Dry-adiabatic warming of
that layer to the surface, coupled with some sunshine should help
push high temps into the low 70s N of I-74 with upper 70s S of
I-70. NW winds will still develop behind the front, so a brief
chill may be added to the air at times.
Mid level warming will develop Saturday night into Sunday, as 850mb
temps climb toward +16C. That warm layer will linger into Monday.
Southerly winds will develop Sunday afternoon once the surface ridge
axis moves east of IL, so highs should once again climb into the 70s
across the board. On Monday, a few 80 degree readings will possible
on Monday across southwest and southeast portions of the forecast
area, which would be nearly 20 degrees above normal for late
October. Record highs for Monday are in the mid 80s and currently
appear safe.
A long wave trough is forecast to move across the northern
Plains on Monday night, with cold front progressing across IL
Tuesday morning and early afternoon. The ECMWF indicates a more
dynamic system developing in the western Great Lakes on Tuesday,
while the GFS remains a bit more progressive and less strong with
the frontal passage in our area of IL. We did maintain widespread
chance PoPs Monday night, as moisture pooling and lift still appear
to be sufficient a band of rain to affect central IL. We continued
the likely PoPs in SE Illinois for Tuesday, but chances should
diminish Tue afternoon as the main forcing for precip departs into
Indiana, and dry air quickly filters into the area aloft.
A significant cool down is agreed upon by the GFS and ECMWF for
Tuesday and Tuesday night, as 850mb temps plummet to 0 to -3C by
midday Wednesday. That will bring temps back below normal for highs
Wed, with upper 50s north of I-74, with low 60s south near
Jacksonville to Lawrenceville.
Another cold front is indicated for Thursday, with better agreement
on timing of the front between the GFS and ECMWF. Confidence is
increasing that a band of light rain showers may accompany that
front. So low chances for rain was added to the Thurs forecast,
mainly from the Illinois river to I-55.
The GFS is a about 4-5 degrees colder and the ECMWF behind the
front, with 850mb readings in the -2 to -4C range Friday afternoon.
We will continue with the cooling trend for late week. Some freezing
temps could develop for Friday night N of I-74 if the GFS scenario
pans out.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014
Low clouds are rapidly dissipating across the area early this
afternoon, with 1730z visible satellite imagery showing one
persistent band from KGBG to KTAZ. Based on satellite trends,
will hold on to IFR ceilings at KSPI for one more hour before
clearing things out by 19z. Once these clouds dissipate, only
FEW-SCT diurnal Cu and high/thin cirrus will be noted for the
balance of the day. Main aviation question will be how low
ceilings will go tonight as trough axis approaches from the
northwest. NAM forecast soundings and latest HRRR both suggest at
least MVFR ceilings spreading in from the NW between 02z and 05z.
This band of low clouds will begin clearing out after midnight,
which will likely lead to fog development toward dawn. Given a
similar airmass to last night and winds expected to become
light/variable in the vicinity of the trough, have reduced visbys
to between 1 and 3 miles at the terminals. Once the trough passes,
winds will veer to the W/NW and any low clouds/fog will clear out
by Saturday morning.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Shimon
AVIATION...Barnes
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
229 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014
.DISCUSSION...
326 AM CDT
SHORT TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING...THE INITIAL
CONCERN WILL BE CLOUD COVER...AND IMPACTS ON VISIBILITY. FOLLOWING
THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK SFC TROUGH/PACIFIC-SOURCED WEAK COLD
FRONT...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE HAS BUILT ACROSS THE REGION. A LOW
STRATUS DECK HAS BEEN IN PLACE FOLLOWING THE FROPA...BUT THE STRATUS
DECK IS ERODING IN PLACES...AND WITH CALM TO LGT/VRBL WINDS IN
PLACE...THE CLEARING LOCATIONS ARE EXPERIENCING RAPID FOG
DEVELOPMENT. THE FOG IS INITIALLY MOSTLY IMPACTING NWRN IL...ARND
THE ROCKFORD AREA...BUT AS THE STRATUS CONTINUES TO
DISSIPATE...ADDITIONAL FOG MAY DEVELOP...BUT ANY DENSE FOG SHOULD BE
LIMITED TO NORTH CENTRAL AND NWRN IL...AWAY FROM THE CHICAGO METRO
AREA. EXCEPT FOR LOCATIONS THAT CLEAR OUT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
GENERALLY BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S...EXCEPT FOR SOME
ISOLATED...SHELTERED LOW LYING AREAS...WHICH COULD RADIATE DOWN INTO
THE UPPER 40S.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF FRIDAY...THE WARMING TREND SHOULD CONTINUE AS
UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE
WESTERN PLAINS. THE MORNING STRATUS AND STRATOCU SHOULD DISSIPATE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...BUT TOTAL SUNSHINE WILL BE LIMITED AS A
THICK CIRRUS LAYER AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
JET STREAM DIVES OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE
MIDWEST. THE SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE IS ALSO INDICATING SOME SHORTWAVE
ENERGY OVERTOPPING THE RIDGE THIS EVENING...WITH SOME GUIDANCE
INDICATING A LITTLE QPF. HAVE A HARD TIME INTRODUCING ANY
MENTIONABLE POPS WITH THIS SYSTEM AS MOISTURE PROFILE FORECASTS ALSO
INDICATE LITTLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. HOWEVER...SOME OF THE HIGH RES
SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IS SHOWING SOME INCREASE RH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
UNDER INCREASINGLY SWLY FLOW...BUT AS FLOW OFF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
WILL BE LIMITED BY HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE CNTRL
APPALACHIANS THROUGH ERN TX...FEEL THAT THIS INCREASED RH COULD BE
MORE INDICATIVE OF SOME FOG POTENTIAL RATHER THAN PCPN POTENTIAL.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...UNDER INCREASING LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND
BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT...EXPECT THAT TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY WILL
LIKELY BE AROUND 5 DEGREES HIGHER THAN THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MIDDLE 60S. FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN MILD WITH DEWPOINTS
INCREASING INTO LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S THROUGH FRIDAY AND INTO FRIDAY
EVENING...SO OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY MORNING SHOULD BE UNSEASONABLY
MILD...AND ONLY DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.
KREIN
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
500MB TROUGH AXIS WILL BE PIVOTING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...WITH A TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING SOUTH AND
EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY MORNING.
MID-LVL HEIGHTS WILL STEADILY RISE AS THE RIDGE PARKED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS PUSHES EAST...BRINGING MILDER AIR TO THE REGION SAT
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPR 60S. THE FAR SOUTHERN CWFA COULD TOUCH 70
DEG SAT. TEMPS SUN ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER AS THE FLOW
BEGINS TO TRANSITION BRIEFLY INTO A QUASI-ZONAL SETUP. HOWEVER THIS
DOES NOT LOOK TO REMAIN VERY LONG...AS RIDGING RETURNS FOR MON AND
TEMPS SHUD QUICKLY WARM INTO THE 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. A WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT ACROSS THE AREA EARLY MON...AS SOUTHERLY
FLOW STRENGTHENS. EXPECT MUCH OF THE DAY MON TO REMAIN DRY...HOWEVER
LATE AFTN/EVE A DEVELOPING LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS MAY HELP TO
GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATE MON.
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE
RIDGING OVERHEAD WILL SHIFT EAST...WITH FLOW TRYING TO FLATTEN.
SUGGESTING THAT A SEMI-ZONAL SETUP MAY DEVELOP BY WED...WHICH WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. TEMPS SHUD RETURN TO
MORE SEASONAL CONDS TUE/WED.
BEACHLER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* CIGS LOWER THIS EVENING...MVFR POSSIBLE.
* MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE TONIGHT.
* SLIGHT CHANCE -SHRA LATE THIS EVENING.
MDB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION CONTINUES TO PROVIDE LIGHT WINDS
WHICH HAVE BEEN VARIABLE BETWEEN SOUTH AND WEST. WILL SEE A
STEADIER SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST DIRECTION DEVELOP INTO THE EVENING AS
THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD. FEW-SCT MVFR CLOUDS LINGER ACROSS
NORTHWEST INDIANA WITH MOST AREAS VFR. LOW CIGS/VSBY REMAIN ACROSS
RFD BUT IS QUICKLY ERODING NORTHWESTWARD SO EXPECT VFR AT RFD BY
19Z OR SO.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WHICH WILL BRING
LOWERING CLOUD COVER. EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TO AT LEAST LOW END VFR
WITH MVFR POSSIBLE GOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE BUT SHOULD BE BRIEF AND SPOTTY IN COVERAGE. CIGS MAY
FURTHER LOWER TO LOWER END MVFR OVERNIGHT BUT AM NOT HIGHLY
CONFIDENT IN THIS OCCURRING. MAY ALSO SEE VSBY LOWER TO MVFR ACROSS
MOST AREAS AS WELL. AM A LITTLE MORE CONCERNED ABOUT IFR POTENTIAL
AT RFD GIVEN HIGHER RESIDUAL MOISTURE THANKS TO THE STRATUS/FOG
HANGING ON SO LONG TODAY. MAY NEED TO CARRY LOWER CONDITIONS WITH
LATER UPDATES. WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY SATURDAY MORNING AS
DRIER AIR WORKS IN. THIS WILL ERODE ANY LOW CIGS/VSBY ALLOWING FOR
VFR TO PREVAIL BY MID/LATE MORNING IF NOT SOONER.
MDB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS LOWERING TO LOWER END VFR THIS
EVENING...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN MVFR VSBY TONIGHT.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THREAT FOR -SHRA IS LOW LATE THIS EVENING.
MDB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR. WX NIL.
SUNDAY...VFR. WX NIL.
MONDAY...VFR. WX NIL.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...CHANCE SHRA/SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT...SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR. WX NIL.
KREIN
&&
.MARINE...
228 PM CDT
HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOWLY PUSHING EAST WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER
THE LAKE. A WEAK LAKE BREEZE HAS TURNED WINDS ONSHORE OVER LAKE
COUNTY IL. SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO 20-25 KT THIS EVENING WITH
OCNL 30 KT GUSTS PSBL OVER THE NORTH HALF OF THE LAKE OVERNIGHT.
WINDS TURN W 20-25 KT BEHIND THE FRONT AND SLOWLY BECOME NW SATURDAY
NIGHT. POINTS NORTH OF WILMETTE HARBOR MAY SEE OCNL GUSTS TO 25 KT
TOMORROW...BUT THINKING SUSTAINED SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE
MET. WINDS DIMINISH AS A HIGH MOVES OVER THE LAKE SUNDAY. WINDS
BECOME SOUTH BEHIND THE LOW AND THEN TURN SE AND INCREASE TO 20-25
KT AS THE NEXT LOW APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF
VARIABILITY IN THE STRENGTH AND PATH OF THE NEXT LOW SO CONFIDENCE
IS LOW IN THE EXACT WIND SPEEDS. ONE MODEL DOES FEATURE WESTERLY
GALES ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT DO NOT HAVE
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO GO THAT HIGH IN THE FORECAST JUST YET. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN MID NEXT WEEK AND WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISH WEDNESDAY.
STILL THINKING THERE IS A MARGINAL CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
TO BE MET MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON
HEADLINES FOR NOW.
JEE
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1257 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1043 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014
Low clouds and fog continue to blanket west-central Illinois this
morning, mainly along/west of a Peoria to Taylorville line. A
Dense Fog Advisory remains in effect for this area through noon.
So far, very little erosion of the low cloud cover has been noted
on visible satellite imagery, although the process will likely
begin within the next hour or two, as it did yesterday across
Iowa. HRRR shows this as well, with skies becoming partly sunny
across all but the far northwest KILX CWA by mid-afternoon. If
trends continue, eastern Iowa/northwest Illinois may remain cloudy
for the entire day. Further east, southerly winds and at least
partial sunshine will help boost afternoon highs into the middle
to upper 60s across central Illinois. Forecast update has already
been issued.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 235 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014
A weak short wave continues to move through the eastern parts of the
CWA this morning, but this should be out of the state by time the
new forecast is issued, or shortly after. The main concern this
morning is the development and advection of stratus clouds and fog
early this morning. Dense fog is present across most of eastern Iowa
this morning and the HRRR model advects this into the area for this
morning. This will keep lots of clouds in the area for this morning,
and could affect max temps for this afternoon, depending on how
quickly the clouds dissipate. Models have it diminishing during
the late morning hours. And with winds becoming southerly by
afternoon, believe some dissipation of the clouds will happen. So
will have less clouds during the afternoon. However, afternoon
high temps may not be as high as first forecast, so have decreased
max temps 1-2 degrees from previous forecast. MAV guidance is
higher than MET by several degrees, so took a compromise between
the two due to cloud cover issues.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 235 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014
Main forecast issue this weekend and into Monday involves
temperatures. Latest model runs for Saturday have been warmer, as
main core of cooler air associated with a frontal boundary track
more across the Great Lakes region. Have bumped up Saturday highs by
a couple degrees. 850 mb warm front progged to lift through the area
late Saturday night and early Sunday, with +16C temperatures
spreading across central Illinois Sunday afternoon, lingering into
Monday. Have also raised highs several degrees both Sunday and
Monday, with a few 80 degree readings possible on Monday across
southwest and southeast portions of the forecast area. Record highs
for Monday are in the mid 80s and currently appear safe.
Split upper flow early next week focuses the deeper part of the next
wave along the northern stream. Model guidance is fairly uniform
with rain chances Monday night through about midday Tuesday, and
pretty much has the forecast area dry by sunset as a high pressure
ridge quickly builds into the mid-Mississippi Valley. However, the
guidance diverges later in the week. The ECMWF persists in a rather
broad trough along the Mississippi River midday Thursday, but now
significantly ramps up rain chances along the associated surface
front. The GFS has a weaker, more progressive wave with little
precipitation. Have leaned more toward the progressive solution for
now. The ECMWF also persists in developing a large closed low over
the Great Lakes late week, which would pump significantly cooler air
into Illinois. Meanwhile, the GFS builds a ridge eastward, with much
warmer air (850 mb temperatures range from -5C to +8C between the
two models). However, this particular aspect is just beyond the
current forecast range, but will need to be addressed with the
afternoon forecast issuance.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014
Low clouds are rapidly dissipating across the area early this
afternoon, with 1730z visible satellite imagery showing one
persistent band from KGBG to KTAZ. Based on satellite trends,
will hold on to IFR ceilings at KSPI for one more hour before
clearing things out by 19z. Once these clouds dissipate, only
FEW-SCT diurnal Cu and high/thin cirrus will be noted for the
balance of the day. Main aviation question will be how low
ceilings will go tonight as trough axis approaches from the
northwest. NAM forecast soundings and latest HRRR both suggest at
least MVFR ceilings spreading in from the NW between 02z and 05z.
This band of low clouds will begin clearing out after midnight,
which will likely lead to fog development toward dawn. Given a
similar airmass to last night and winds expected to become
light/variable in the vicinity of the trough, have reduced visbys
to between 1 and 3 miles at the terminals. Once the trough passes,
winds will veer to the W/NW and any low clouds/fog will clear out
by Saturday morning.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Barnes
SHORT TERM...Auten
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Barnes
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1112 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014
.DISCUSSION...
326 AM CDT
SHORT TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING...THE INITIAL
CONCERN WILL BE CLOUD COVER...AND IMPACTS ON VISIBILITY. FOLLOWING
THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK SFC TROUGH/PACIFIC-SOURCED WEAK COLD
FRONT...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE HAS BUILT ACROSS THE REGION. A LOW
STRATUS DECK HAS BEEN IN PLACE FOLLOWING THE FROPA...BUT THE STRATUS
DECK IS ERODING IN PLACES...AND WITH CALM TO LGT/VRBL WINDS IN
PLACE...THE CLEARING LOCATIONS ARE EXPERIENCING RAPID FOG
DEVELOPMENT. THE FOG IS INITIALLY MOSTLY IMPACTING NWRN IL...ARND
THE ROCKFORD AREA...BUT AS THE STRATUS CONTINUES TO
DISSIPATE...ADDITIONAL FOG MAY DEVELOP...BUT ANY DENSE FOG SHOULD BE
LIMITED TO NORTH CENTRAL AND NWRN IL...AWAY FROM THE CHICAGO METRO
AREA. EXCEPT FOR LOCATIONS THAT CLEAR OUT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
GENERALLY BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S...EXCEPT FOR SOME
ISOLATED...SHELTERED LOW LYING AREAS...WHICH COULD RADIATE DOWN INTO
THE UPPER 40S.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF FRIDAY...THE WARMING TREND SHOULD CONTINUE AS
UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE
WESTERN PLAINS. THE MORNING STRATUS AND STRATOCU SHOULD DISSIPATE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...BUT TOTAL SUNSHINE WILL BE LIMITED AS A
THICK CIRRUS LAYER AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
JET STREAM DIVES OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE
MIDWEST. THE SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE IS ALSO INDICATING SOME SHORTWAVE
ENERGY OVERTOPPING THE RIDGE THIS EVENING...WITH SOME GUIDANCE
INDICATING A LITTLE QPF. HAVE A HARD TIME INTRODUCING ANY
MENTIONABLE POPS WITH THIS SYSTEM AS MOISTURE PROFILE FORECASTS ALSO
INDICATE LITTLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. HOWEVER...SOME OF THE HIGH RES
SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IS SHOWING SOME INCREASE RH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
UNDER INCREASINGLY SWLY FLOW...BUT AS FLOW OFF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
WILL BE LIMITED BY HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE CNTRL
APPALACHIANS THROUGH ERN TX...FEEL THAT THIS INCREASED RH COULD BE
MORE INDICATIVE OF SOME FOG POTENTIAL RATHER THAN PCPN POTENTIAL.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...UNDER INCREASING LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND
BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT...EXPECT THAT TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY WILL
LIKELY BE AROUND 5 DEGREES HIGHER THAN THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MIDDLE 60S. FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN MILD WITH DEWPOINTS
INCREASING INTO LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S THROUGH FRIDAY AND INTO FRIDAY
EVENING...SO OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY MORNING SHOULD BE UNSEASONABLY
MILD...AND ONLY DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.
KREIN
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
500MB TROUGH AXIS WILL BE PIVOTING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...WITH A TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING SOUTH AND
EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY MORNING.
MID-LVL HEIGHTS WILL STEADILY RISE AS THE RIDGE PARKED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS PUSHES EAST...BRINGING MILDER AIR TO THE REGION SAT
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPR 60S. THE FAR SOUTHERN CWFA COULD TOUCH 70
DEG SAT. TEMPS SUN ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER AS THE FLOW
BEGINS TO TRANSITION BRIEFLY INTO A QUASI-ZONAL SETUP. HOWEVER THIS
DOES NOT LOOK TO REMAIN VERY LONG...AS RIDGING RETURNS FOR MON AND
TEMPS SHUD QUICKLY WARM INTO THE 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. A WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT ACROSS THE AREA EARLY MON...AS SOUTHERLY
FLOW STRENGTHENS. EXPECT MUCH OF THE DAY MON TO REMAIN DRY...HOWEVER
LATE AFTN/EVE A DEVELOPING LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS MAY HELP TO
GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATE MON.
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE
RIDGING OVERHEAD WILL SHIFT EAST...WITH FLOW TRYING TO FLATTEN.
SUGGESTING THAT A SEMI-ZONAL SETUP MAY DEVELOP BY WED...WHICH WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. TEMPS SHUD RETURN TO
MORE SEASONAL CONDS TUE/WED.
BEACHLER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...
* PATCH OF MVFR 025-030 CIGS EXPECTED TO SCATTER/CLEAR AT MDW BY
17Z.
* MVFR CIGS/VSBY LIKELY AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. IFR CIGS/VSBY POSSIBLE.
MDB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 16Z...
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO ERODE FROM PWK TO DPA TO JOT TO PIA AND POINTS
EAST WITH A LARGE GAP IN COVERAGE HAVING DEVELOPED. A PATCH OF
025-030 STRATUS IS LINGERING FROM MDW TO GYY BUT EXPECT SCATTERING
AT MDW SOON WITH A PERIOD OF BKN SKIES AT GYY PRIOR TO 18Z.
OTHERWISE...EXPANSIVE AREA OF LIFR AND LOWER CIGS/VSBY REMAINS
PERSISTENT TO THE WEST. THE EASTERN FLANK OF THIS HAS SHOWN SOME
VERY SLOW DRIFT TO THE EAST SO AM A LITTLE CONCERNED THAT CLOUDS
COULD FILL IN A BIT AGAIN AT DPA SO WILL KEEP SCATTERED MENTION
THERE BUT THE LONGER IT TAKES FOR ANY CLOUDS TO ARRIVE THERE THE
HIGHER THEY WOULD LIKELY BE THANKS TO SOME WARMING IN THE
MEANTIME. OTHERWISE HAVE FURTHER SLOWED IMPROVEMENT AT RFD AND MAY
STILL BE A BIT FAST...ESPECIALLY SINCE FAIRLY DENSE CIRRUS IS
MOVING IN OVERHEAD. OTHERWISE LIGHT AND VARIABLE SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED.
MDB
FROM 12Z...
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK SFC TROUGH...HOWEVER...AN AREA OF
STRATUS FILTERED IN BEHIND THE WEAK BOUNDARY. LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE STRATUS IS BREAKING UP OVER NRN IL AND
IN LOCATIONS THAT HAD SEEN SOME PCPN YESTERDAY...MAINLY ARND THE
RFD AREA...SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS FORMED...THOUGH OF THE TAF
SITES...ONLY RFD HAS OBSERVED THE DENSE FOG. BASED ON THE LATEST
HIGH RES MODEL GUIDANCE AND SATELLITE TRENDS...ANTICIPATE THAT
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR OVER THE AREA BY LATE MORNING.
ANOTHER SFC TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS TO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL BECOME SSWLY
THOUGH THE DAY...THOUGH WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT...WIND
SPEEDS SHOULD BE LESS THAN 10KT THROUGH THE DAY. FOR THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS...A MODEST MID LEVEL IMPULSE IS EXPECTED TO CROSS
THE AREA INVOF THE WI/IL BORDER. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THIS
SYSTEM COULD TRIGGER SOME ISOLD/SCT -SHRA...BUT CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING AND COVERAGE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE PCPN IN THE TAFS AT THIS
TIME. CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAT MORE FOG SHOULD DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...PER THE LATEST HIGH RES MODEL RH
TIME SECTIONS...SO HAVE INTRODUCED IFR VIS FOR LATE THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. SOME GUIDANCE IS POINTING TOWARD THE POSSIBILITY OF
VIS DROPPING TO 1/4SM...BUT GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED...DO NOT HAVE HIGH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO DROP VIS LOWER
THAN 1SM FOR NOW.
KREIN
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS SCATTERING/CLEARING MDW BY AROUND
17Z.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIG TRENDS LATE TONIGHT.
* LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN VSBY TRENDS LATE TONIGHT.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS.
MDB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR. WX NIL.
SUNDAY...VFR. WX NIL.
MONDAY...VFR. WX NIL.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...CHANCE SHRA/SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT...SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR. WX NIL.
KREIN
&&
.MARINE...
215 AM CDT
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM WESTERN QUEBEC
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. THIS RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST OF THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...MEANWHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA
CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST TOWARDS HUDSON BAY SATURDAY. THE GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...THEN SLOWLY TURN
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY. AS THE LOW NEARS HUDSON BAY ON SATURDAY...A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL TRAIL AND SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN. THIS WILL RESULT IN WINDS TURNING WEST/NORTHWEST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. COOLER AIR WILL FLOW ACROSS THE LAKE
ALONG WITH A TIGHTENING GRADIENT...RESULTING IN INCREASING WINDS
NEARING 30KT AT TIMES. THEN ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
QUICKLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST/NORTHERN PLAINS
SUNDAY...STEADILY DIMINISHING THE GRADIENT. ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...THEN APPROACH LAKE MICHIGAN CLOSER TO MID-WEEK. THIS WILL
BRING WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH OCCASIONALLY WINDS GUSTING
TO 30KT.
BEACHLER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1043 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1043 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014
Low clouds and fog continue to blanket west-central Illinois this
morning, mainly along/west of a Peoria to Taylorville line. A
Dense Fog Advisory remains in effect for this area through noon.
So far, very little erosion of the low cloud cover has been noted
on visible satellite imagery, although the process will likely
begin within the next hour or two, as it did yesterday across
Iowa. HRRR shows this as well, with skies becoming partly sunny
across all but the far northwest KILX CWA by mid-afternoon. If
trends continue, eastern Iowa/northwest Illinois may remain cloudy
for the entire day. Further east, southerly winds and at least
partial sunshine will help boost afternoon highs into the middle
to upper 60s across central Illinois. Forecast update has already
been issued.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 235 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014
A weak short wave continues to move through the eastern parts of the
CWA this morning, but this should be out of the state by time the
new forecast is issued, or shortly after. The main concern this
morning is the development and advection of stratus clouds and fog
early this morning. Dense fog is present across most of eastern Iowa
this morning and the HRRR model advects this into the area for this
morning. This will keep lots of clouds in the area for this morning,
and could affect max temps for this afternoon, depending on how
quickly the clouds dissipate. Models have it diminishing during
the late morning hours. And with winds becoming southerly by
afternoon, believe some dissipation of the clouds will happen. So
will have less clouds during the afternoon. However, afternoon
high temps may not be as high as first forecast, so have decreased
max temps 1-2 degrees from previous forecast. MAV guidance is
higher than MET by several degrees, so took a compromise between
the two due to cloud cover issues.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 235 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014
Main forecast issue this weekend and into Monday involves
temperatures. Latest model runs for Saturday have been warmer, as
main core of cooler air associated with a frontal boundary track
more across the Great Lakes region. Have bumped up Saturday highs by
a couple degrees. 850 mb warm front progged to lift through the area
late Saturday night and early Sunday, with +16C temperatures
spreading across central Illinois Sunday afternoon, lingering into
Monday. Have also raised highs several degrees both Sunday and
Monday, with a few 80 degree readings possible on Monday across
southwest and southeast portions of the forecast area. Record highs
for Monday are in the mid 80s and currently appear safe.
Split upper flow early next week focuses the deeper part of the next
wave along the northern stream. Model guidance is fairly uniform
with rain chances Monday night through about midday Tuesday, and
pretty much has the forecast area dry by sunset as a high pressure
ridge quickly builds into the mid-Mississippi Valley. However, the
guidance diverges later in the week. The ECMWF persists in a rather
broad trough along the Mississippi River midday Thursday, but now
significantly ramps up rain chances along the associated surface
front. The GFS has a weaker, more progressive wave with little
precipitation. Have leaned more toward the progressive solution for
now. The ECMWF also persists in developing a large closed low over
the Great Lakes late week, which would pump significantly cooler air
into Illinois. Meanwhile, the GFS builds a ridge eastward, with much
warmer air (850 mb temperatures range from -5C to +8C between the
two models). However, this particular aspect is just beyond the
current forecast range, but will need to be addressed with the
afternoon forecast issuance.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
ISSUED AT 644 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014
Complicated forecast for the first 6hrs with some of the TAFs this
morning. An area of stratus and very low vis is slowly moving east
into the area and is already effecting SPI, and should effect PIA
in next couple of hours. Question is how far east will this area
of IFR/LIFR conditions get...will it effect BMI/DEC and CMI.
Believe it will effect DEC and BMI some, but not as much as SPI
and PIA. Conditions should improve this morning, around 16z at PIA
and SPI, but still remain lower MVFR for the rest of the morning.
HRRR model brings some of the lower cigs into BMI and DEC, but not
as long. So going to be a little bit more optimistic at these
sites this morning and just have IFR cigs for this morning at DEC
and lower MVFR at BMI. CMI will have just a TEMPO group for cigs
around 1kft this morning. Conditions should be VFR this afternoon,
but models bring more MVFR cigs back into the area this evening
and continue into the overnight hours. Winds will be light and
variable this morning, but then become more south-southwest for
the rest of the TAF period. Speeds this afternoon will be around
5-10kts.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY until Noon CDT today FOR ILZ027>031-036-037-
040-041-047>051.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Barnes
SHORT TERM...Auten
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Auten
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
218 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 151 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014
WITH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS THE DRY AND MILD PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS...STALLING OUT JUST NORTH/NORTHEAST OF THE CWA TOMORROW.
TODAY...MOSTLY SUNNY AND RECORD-BREAKING WARMTH. AS OF THE EARLY
AFTERNOON AT LEAST ONE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE HAS BEEN TIED AND A
FEW OTHERS ARE A FEW DEGREES SHY OF RECORD VALUES. RAP ANALYSIS
DEPICTS 850MB TEMPS ON THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE...AND MORNING
TEMPS ROSE ACCORDINGLY. SOME EARLY CLOUD COVER ALONG/EAST OF HIGHWAY
83 LIMITED HEATING THIS MORNING...BUT UNDER NEAR-FULL SUNSHINE EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON TEMPS ARE NEAR FORECAST VALUES. DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN
MARKEDLY DRIER THAN MOST ALL GUIDANCE EXCEPT FOR THE HRRR WHICH HAS
BEEN DEPICTING WHAT SEEMED THIS MORNING TO BE A VERY AGGRESSIVE DROP
IN DEW POINTS...IN THE 20S F ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. WINDS ARE
LIGHT /LESS THAN 10MPH/ SO THANKFULLY FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
NOT A CONCERN TODAY.
TONIGHT...CLOUDS CLEAR OUT BUT WARM AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE. LOW
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID/UPPER 40S...ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION. WITH DRY AIR MOVING
IN FOG IS OF NO CONCERN.
TOMORROW...SATURDAY...ANOTHER DRY AND MILD DAY. TEMPS WILL NOT BE AS
HOT AS FRIDAY AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT...850MB TEMPS IN THE LOW 20S C LEADING TO HIGHS WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AT 10-15
KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS. RECORD HIGHS MAY BE BROKEN...SEE CLIMATE
SECTION FOR DETAILS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014
NAM/SREF ARE SHOWING MOISTURE RETURN EAST OF SURFACE TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN PART OF THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WHICH
COULD LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT. NAM/SREF ARE SHOWING REDUCED VIS IN
THESE AREAS...SO I INTRODUCED PATCHY FOG MENTION OVER THE
NORTHEAST PART OF CWA.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN DECENT AGREEMENT AT LEAST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK ON THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WITH RIDGE KEEPING
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE SUNDAY...AND
A QUICK MOVING POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT.
JUST LIKE IN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...LIFT IS DECENT...HOWEVER
MOISTURE IS NOT IMPRESSIVE AND I CONSIDERED ONLY HAVING MENTION OF
SPRINKLES AND NO MEASURABLE PRECIP. THERE IS STILL A WEAK PRECIP
SIGNAL ON MOST GUIDANCE...AND I COULDNT RULE OUT A FEW LOCATIONS
GETTING A FEW HUNDREDTHS SO I LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN PLACE
MONDAY-MONDAY EVENING. AS THE SURFACE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE CWA
AND SURFACE GRADIENT INCREASES WE COULD SEE WINDY CONDITIONS
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. I TRENDED WINDS UP A LITTLE
MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT AM STILL A LITTLE LOWER THAN WHAT NAM ML
WINDS WOULD INDICATE.
SKIES SHOULD RAPIDLY CLEAR MONDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASING
WINDS...AND LOW TD VALUES IN THE 20S. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND FROST CHANCES APPEAR TO BE INCREASING. I
KEPT FORECAST IN THE 30-36F RANGE...HOWEVER I COULD SEE A FEW COLD
SPOTS DROPPING TO 28F.
PATTERN SHIFTS TO A BRIEF WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW BEFORE RIDGE
AMPLIFIES OVER THE WESTERN US...RESULTING IN NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW
OVER THE PLAINS. GUIDANCE GENERALLY SHOWING A SIMILAR
PATTERN...THOUGH THERE ARE SMALLER VARIANCES LIKELY A RESULT OF
WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES. A VERY DRY AIR MASS IS ADVERTISED...SO
EVEN IF WE DO SE DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW I DO NOT
ANTICIPATE PRECIP AND ONLY PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. TEMPS WILL TEND TO
BE JUST BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS AROUND 60F MONDAY-FRIDAY...WITH
WESTERLY FLOW SUPPORTING SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE UPPER 60S/NEAR 70
ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1128 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014
BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN THIS WEEKEND WILL MEAN VFR CONDITIONS AT
MCK AND GLD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT
LESS THAN 10 KTS. A SCATTERED HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD DECK /APPROX 25KFT
AGL OR HIGHER/ WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SKIES
BECOMING CLEAR TONIGHT.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...JJM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
153 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 151 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014
WITH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS THE DRY AND MILD PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS...STALLING OUT JUST NORTH/NORTHEAST OF THE CWA TOMORROW.
TODAY...MOSTLY SUNNY AND RECORD-BREAKING WARMTH. AS OF THE EARLY
AFTERNOON AT LEAST ONE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE HAS BEEN TIED AND A
FEW OTHERS ARE A FEW DEGREES SHY OF RECORD VALUES. RAP ANALYSIS
DEPICTS 850MB TEMPS ON THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE...AND MORNING
TEMPS ROSE ACCORDINGLY. SOME EARLY CLOUD COVER ALONG/EAST OF HIGHWAY
83 LIMITED HEATING THIS MORNING...BUT UNDER NEAR-FULL SUNSHINE EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON TEMPS ARE NEAR FORECAST VALUES. DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN
MARKEDLY DRIER THAN MOST ALL GUIDANCE EXCEPT FOR THE HRRR WHICH HAS
BEEN DEPICTING WHAT SEEMED THIS MORNING TO BE A VERY AGGRESSIVE DROP
IN DEW POINTS...IN THE 20S F ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. WINDS ARE
LIGHT /LESS THAN 10MPH/ SO THANKFULLY FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
NOT A CONCERN TODAY.
TONIGHT...CLOUDS CLEAR OUT BUT WARM AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE. LOW
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID/UPPER 40S...ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION. WITH DRY AIR MOVING
IN FOG IS OF NO CONCERN.
TOMORROW...SATURDAY...ANOTHER DRY AND MILD DAY. TEMPS WILL NOT BE AS
HOT AS FRIDAY AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT...850MB TEMPS IN THE LOW 20S C LEADING TO HIGHS WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AT 10-15
KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS. RECORD HIGHS MAY BE BROKEN...SEE CLIMATE
SECTION FOR DETAILS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 116 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014
INITIAL AND ONLY CONCERN IS THE LOW CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY
AND MONDAY EVENING. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE
SPEED AND AMPLITUDE OF THE SYSTEM TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.
ECMWF HAS DEFINITELY BACKED OFF ITS MUCH DEEPER/STRONGER SYSTEM.
THERE WILL BE SOME DECENT MID AND UPPER LEVEL LIFT AS IT MOVES
THROUGH. HOWEVER...THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SYSTEM. SO THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS GIVEN TO ME BY THE
CRH_INIT ARE REASONABLE AND MADE NO CHANGES TO THEM.
MODELS DIFFERENCES INCREASE FROM TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY
WITH WHERE THEY PUT THE DEVELOPING RIDGE. NO MATTER WHICH MODEL
YOU USE...DRY WESTERLY FLOW OR RIDGING WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. MODELS STILL SHOWING COLD ENOUGH
TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT THAT FROST WILL LIKELY
FORM. SO KEPT THE PATCHY FROST THAT INHERITED. ALSO MADE NO
CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1128 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014
BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN THIS WEEKEND WILL MEAN VFR CONDITIONS AT
MCK AND GLD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT
LESS THAN 10 KTS. A SCATTERED HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD DECK /APPROX 25KFT
AGL OR HIGHER/ WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SKIES
BECOMING CLEAR TONIGHT.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE IN JEOPARDY OF BEING TIED OR BROKEN AT
THE FOLLOWING LOCATION SATURDAY OCTOBER 25:
BURLINGTON CO....84 IN 1963
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...JJM
CLIMATE...99/JJM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
327 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO/MARINE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014
A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BRING
MORE CLOUDS IN TONIGHT AND A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES AFTER A BRIEF
PERIOD OF CLEARING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. CLOUDS WILL
MOVE OUT DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY AND MILD TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN.
THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER WILL START TO MAKE ITS WAY IN ON SUNDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY ON MONDAY. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE STORMS WILL MOVE IN SUNDAY
NIGHT AS ANOTHER SURGE OF WARM AIR MOVES UP INTO THE AREA. MORE RAIN
WILL MOVE IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014
NO MAJOR WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE
FCST. CLOUD TRENDS AND THE THREAT OF RAIN TONIGHT WILL BE THE FIRST
FOCUS...THEN TRANSITIONING TO SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE STORMS FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT.
WE ARE STILL EXPECTING A BRIEF WINDOW OF PARTIAL CLEARING TO TAKE
PLACE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE AREA. RESIDUAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THE WEAKENING FRONT HAS HELD OVER THE AREA
THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MORE BREAKS ARE OPENING UP...AND WE
EXPECT THESE TO EXPAND AS THE LOW CLOUDS DISSIPATE AND MOVE OUT.
WE HAVE ADDED A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES TO THE FCST FOR TONIGHT AND
EARLY SAT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. CLOUDS WILL MOVE BACK IN
OVERNIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS THE
MO RIVER AS OF 19Z. THERE IS LESS IN THE WAY OF UPPER SUPPORT WITH
THIS NEXT FRONT COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT/S FRONT. SHORT WAVE ENERGY
AND UPPER JET SUPPORT BOTH STAY WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. WEAK LL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE WORKING ON A MORE MOIST ATMOSPHERE
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. WE DO NOT EXPECT MEASURABLE PCPN TONIGHT OR
SAT MORNING.
THE FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AROUND 12Z SAT...AND
SHOULD EXIT THE CWFA BY ABOUT 20Z OR SO. SHORTLY BEHIND THE
FRONT...THE LOWER CLOUD COVER SHOULD CLEAR OUT AND TEMPS SHOULD
SNEAK INTO THE 60S AS BEST CAA DOES NOT TAKE PLACE UNTIL SAT NIGHT.
WE EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THEN THROUGH SUN EVENING.
RAIN CHANCES WILL MOVE BACK IN ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE CWFA LATE
ON SUN NIGHT. THE STRONG SYSTEM OFF OF THE PACIFIC NW TODAY WILL
OPEN UP A BIT AND TRANSLATE ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS BY
SUN NIGHT. THIS WILL HELP TO STRENGTHEN A WARM FRONT TO OUR SW AND
DRIVE IT IN HERE LATE SUN NIGHT. A DECENT SURGE OF WARMTH AND
MOISTURE ALOFT WILL HELP TO DEVELOP SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW. THUNDER
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ELEVATED LI/S GOING NEGATIVE OVER THE AREA.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014
THIS PERIOD IS ONE OF SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM THE START OF THE
FORECAST ON MONDAY TO THE END OF THE FORECAST ON HALLOWEEN. A STRONG
PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THEN WE GET A GOOD SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE
SYSTEM FOR WEDNESDAY ONLY TO HAVE A DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM WAVE
BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR AN EVEN STRONGER COLD FRONT IN THE THURSDAY
TO FRIDAY TIME FRAME.
THE REMNANTS OF EXTRATROPICAL LOW ASSOCIATED WITH CURRENT PACIFIC
TROPICAL STORM ANA NOW LOCATED WELL NW OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS
MERGES WITH THE PACIFIC SYSTEM MOVING ON SHORE FROM THE GULF OF
ALASKA. TYPICALLY THE MODELS UNDERPLAY THESE SORTS OF SYSTEMS SO I
WOULD IMAGINE WHAT WE WILL ACTUALLY SEE WILL BE STRONGER AND SLOWER
THEN THE MODELS CURRENTLY SHOW. THAT FAVORS THE LOWER ECMWF SO I
HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY. ALSO THERE IS
DECENT INSTABILITY (850 LI NEGATIVE) AND THE LOW LEVEL JET OF 40
KNOTS AT 12Z NEAR SBN INCREASES TO NEAR 50 KNOTS BY DTW BY TUESDAY
EVENING. WHEN WE ADD THE ENTRANCE REGION TO A 100 KNOT 300 MB JET TO
THE PICTURE AND NEAR NEGATIVE TILT UPPER TROUGH... I HAVE TO BELIEVE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MORE THAN POSSIBLE TUESDAY. I PUT LIKELY POPS FOR
THIS.
THAT SYSTEM TAPS SOME COLD AIR SO WE WOULD GET SOME LAKE EFFECT
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY. THE REAL ISSUE IS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. HERE WE
HAVE 130 TO 140 KNOT JET DIVING INTO THE ALREADY CREATED EASTERN
TROUGH. HOW THIS PLAYS OUT DEPEND ON WHAT HAPPENS TO THE UPSTREAM
SYSTEM OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. GIVEN THE MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL
WATERS OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN ALASKA AND WEST OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA... I AM THINKING THAT SYSTEM WILL BE FARTHER WEST AND
DEEPER SO THE UPSTREAM RIDGE WILL BE BIGGER AND THERE WILL BE MORE
DIGGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD BE THE COLDEST WEATHER BY FAR FOR THIS SEASON SO
FAR. I DID NOT PUT SNOW IN THE GRIDS YET BUT DO NOT BE SURPRISED IF
SNOW STARTS SHOWING UP THE GRIDS FOR HALLOWEEN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014
THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY LATE AFTERNOON ONLY TO
REDEVELOP BY MIDNIGHT OR SO.
THE PRIMARY ISSUE IS WHAT HAPPENS TO THE IFR CIGS NORTH AND WEST
OF MKG (OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN...LAKE MICHIGAN... AND NORTHWEST
LOWER MICHIGAN) OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LOOKING AT THE VISIBLE
SATELLITE LOOPS IT SEEMS THE CLEARING IS WORKING NORTHWARD OVER
THE PAST FEW HOURS. THAT TREND GOES ALONG WITH BOTH THE RAP AND NAM
950 TO 850 MB RH FORECAST WHICH ALSO SHOWS CLEARING OF LOW CLOUDS.
BY LATE AFTERNOON MOST LOCATIONS. SO THAT IS WHAT I DID WITH THE
TAF FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
THE NEXT ISSUE IS FOG/STRATUS TONIGHT. THE NAMDNG5...WHICH I HAVE
NOTED DOES VERY NICELY WITH FORECASTING FOG AND FOR THAT MATTER
SO DOES THE RAP13...BOTH SHOW NEARLY THE ENTIRE CWA GOING DOWN IN
FOG BY 09Z. THE PROBLEM THERE THOUGH IS THERE IS 15 TO 20 KNOTS OF
WIND IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THAT WOULD SUGGEST TO ME A STRATUS
DECK IS MORE LIKELY. SO MY TAFS SHOW CLEARING BY LATE AFTERNOON
THEN I BRING THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS BACK LATE TONIGHT. FOR THE MOST
PART THE LOW CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO MIX OUT SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014
WE CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON THE POTENTIAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EVENT FOR
LATE SAT AND SAT NIGHT. SW WINDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE TONIGHT AND
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF SAT. WINDS WILL INCREASE UP TO ABOUT 20
KNOTS BY THEN IN THE FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT COMING THROUGH. WE
WILL SEE A BETTER CHC OF ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON SAT AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT AS COOLER AIR MOVES IN. IT IS LOOKING LIKELY
WE WILL SEE WINDS AND WAVES HIT CRITERIA THROUGH SAT NIGHT BEFORE
COMING DOWN ON SUN.
IT LOOKS LIKE WINDS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN ON MON AND REMAIN UP
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. ADVISORIES WILL BE LIKELY AT
THAT TIME ALSO.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014
NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK. RIVER LEVELS
ARE STARTING OUT AROUND AVERAGE WITH THE RECENT DRY WEATHER WE HAVE
HAD. WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY MEASURABLE PCPN UNTIL AT LEAST SUN
NIGHT.
THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OF PERIODS OF RAIN NEXT WEEK. EACH OF THESE
RAIN EVENTS LOOK TO BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE WITH ONLY A QUARTER TO
HALF AN INCH OF RAIN WITH EACH EVENT. THESE AMOUNTS SPREAD OUT OVER
THE WEEK WILL NOT CAUSE ANY MAJOR RISES ON THE AREA RIVERS.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...WDM
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...NJJ
MARINE...NJJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
209 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014
FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH DRY
WEATHER CURRENTLY FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING...BUT IT SHOULD PASS THROUGH
DRY. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TOPPING OUT AROUND 60 DEGREES EACH DAY. NORMAL HIGHS FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BRING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH WARM AIR. HIGHS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WILL PUSH TOWARDS 70 DEGREES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014
NO REAL CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM WITH DRY WEATHER FORECAST THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE CLOUDS.
WIDESPREAD STRATUS AND STRATOCUMULUS LOCATED UPSTREAM WILL MOVE INTO
LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY AND SHOULD PROVIDE A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY. THERE
IS SOME INDICATION THAT THE CLOUDS MAY BE TRYING TO EXIT THE EASTERN
CWA LATE IN THE DAY WITH CLEARING IN THE WEST...BUT THINKING WE WILL
LIKELY HANG ON TO CLOUDS MUCH OF THE DAY.
CLEARING WILL OCCUR TONIGHT FOR A TIME...BEFORE MOISTURE STREAMS
BACK IN AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. SO...IN
GENERAL A PARTLY CLOUDY NIGHT...BUT WE SHOULD TURN MOSTLY CLOUDY IN
MOST AREAS BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY.
THE FRONT ON SATURDAY STILL LOOKS TO TRAVERSE THE AREA DRY. MOISTURE
IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE IN THE 1000-700MB LAYER AND MOST OF THE
DYNAMICS REMAIN TO THE NORTH. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER WAVE IS LOCATED
IN THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WITH LITTLE IF ANY VERTICAL MOTION DOWN
OUR WAY. CLOUDS SHOULD BE THE MAIN IMPACT WITH THIS SYSTEM.
THE CLOUDS WILL EXIT THE EAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH CLEARING
TAKING PLACE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES INTO THE AREA FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014
THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED INTO VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. MUCH WARMER AIR ARRIVES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
LONG TERM AS A LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE ROCKIES.
THIS PUMPS THE WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION. A WARM
FRONT SHOULD COME THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. ALL THE MODELS SHOW SOME
CONVECTION NORTH OF THE FRONT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-96. I INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY OVER THE NORTHERN CWA
WITH THIS FRONT. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON H8 TEMPS SURGE TO +14C WHICH
SHOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS OF 65 TO 70 ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...
POSSIBLY HIGHER...DEPENDENT ON IF ANY SUN COMES THROUGH BEHIND THE
FRONT.
THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED QUICKER WITH A COLD FRONT THAT APPEARS TO
COME THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING NOW. WE SHOULD SEE A LINE OF SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. THEN...IF THE TIMING VERIFIES WE
SHOULD SEE FALLING TEMPS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS H8 TEMPS CRASH. IN
FACT THE MODELS HAVE ALSO TRENDED COLDER BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH H8
TEMPS PLUNGING TO AROUND -1C BY TUESDAY NIGHT. HAVE LOW POPS FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT IF THE COLDER TREND CONTINUES WE MAY NEED TO
INCREASE POPS AS SOME LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS COULD BE POSSIBLE THEN.
THE MID WEEK PERIOD LOOKS MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL AS THE LONG
WAVE UPPER TROUGH EXITS AND ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 210 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014
THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY LATE AFTERNOON ONLY TO
REDEVELOP BY MIDNIGHT OR SO.
THE PRIMARY ISSUE IS WHAT HAPPENS TO THE IFR CIGS NORTH AND WEST
OF MKG (OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN...LAKE MICHIGAN... AND NORTHWEST
LOWER MICHIGAN) OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LOOKING AT THE VISIBLE
SATELLITE LOOPS IT SEEMS THE CLEARING IS WORKING NORTHWARD OVER
THE PAST FEW HOURS. THAT TREND GOES ALONG WITH BOTH THE RAP AND NAM
950 TO 850 MB RH FORECAST WHICH ALSO SHOWS CLEARING OF LOW CLOUDS.
BY LATE AFTERNOON MOST LOCATIONS. SO THAT IS WHAT I DID WITH THE
TAF FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
THE NEXT ISSUE IS FOG/STRATUS TONIGHT. THE NAMDNG5...WHICH I HAVE
NOTED DOES VERY NICELY WITH FORECASTING FOG AND FOR THAT MATTER
SO DOES THE RAP13...BOTH SHOW NEARLY THE ENTIRE CWA GOING DOWN IN
FOG BY 09Z. THE PROBLEM THERE THOUGH IS THERE IS 15 TO 20 KNOTS OF
WIND IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THAT WOULD SUGGEST TO ME A STRATUS
DECK IS MORE LIKELY. SO MY TAFS SHOW CLEARING BY LATE AFTERNOON
THEN I BRING THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS BACK LATE TONIGHT. FOR THE MOST
PART THE LOW CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO MIX OUT SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW TODAY WILL KEEP WAVE HEIGHTS IN CHECK. SOUTH
WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT BUT SHOULD
STAY JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE NEXT TIME FRAME
OF CONCERN WILL BE SATURDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT WHERE WEST AND
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL LIKELY RAMP INTO THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE. WAVES
SHOULD BUILD INTO THE 3 TO 6 FOOT RANGE. AT THIS POINT WILL HOLD OFF
ON A PERIOD 3 SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. ONE WILL LIKELY BE NEED THOUGH.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014
HYDRO CONCERNS ARE LIMITED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH LOW RIVER
LEVELS AND NO PRECIPITATION FORECAST. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SOLID RAIN
COMES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRAVERSES THE AREA. PWAT VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 1.25 INCHES WHICH
IS ABOVE THE 75 PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE AMOUNT OF RAIN
EXPECTED THOUGH SHOULD BE ABLE TO BE ABSORBED WITHOUT ISSUE GIVEN
LOW FLOWS.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...DUKE
MARINE...DUKE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
1139 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1138 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014
FOG HAS DISSIPATED AT MID MORNING AS EXPECTED...AND NOW WILL BE
DEALING WITH A QUIET AND MILD DAY. PROBLEM IS THE EXTENT OF CIRRUS
ACROSS THE AREA. DO EXPECT THIS TO THIN GOING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...BUT GIVEN THE WEAK FLOW BELOW IMPRESSIVE INVERSION ON
THE KABR 12Z RAOB...WILL PERHAPS BE A STRUGGLE TO WARM QUITE AS
MUCH AS EXPECTED. LOOKS LIKE TEMPS WILL START TO COME UP FAIRLY
QUICKLY INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...AT WHICH TIME A BIT
STRONGER WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND WILL DEVELOP...AND WARMING RATES
WILL SLOW CONSIDERABLY. COULD STILL SEE A FEW READINGS TOWARD THE
UPPER 70S IN LOWER BRULE LOCATIONS...BUT MOSTLY LOWER TO A FEW MID
70S EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014
UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...CENTERED
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN PLAINS...EXTENDING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WESTERN PLAINS. THIS WILL HELP TO GIVE EXTREMELY MILD
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR TODAY...BUT LOOKS TO BE SHORT OF
RECORDS AS THEY ARE STILL IN THE 80S.
BUT FIRST...PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY HAVE TO CONTEND WITH
MORNING FOG AGAIN. THE ORGANIZED AREA OF DENSE FOG IS TO THE EAST OF
OUR FORECAST AREA...WITH SOME INDICATIONS PER THE HRRR AND RAP13
THAT THIS FOG MAY BACK INTO OUR EXTREME EASTERN ZONES AROUND SUNRISE
WHEN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW DECREASES. THEREFORE KEPT AREAS OF FOG GOING
IN THAT AREA AROUND SPENCER AND STORM LAKE IA. ELSEWHERE DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE ARE CREEPING UP...ADVECTING NORTHWARD
FROM NEB. IN ADDITION...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS MOVING SLOWLY
EASTWARD...CURRENTLY BETWEEN CHAMBERLAIN AND THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
AS IT MOVES EASTWARD...THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE
IN THE PRE DAWN HOURS ALONG THE I 29 CORRIDOR AND EAST CENTRAL SD.
SURFACE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE ALREADY GETTING SMALL IN EAST
CENTRAL SD...WHERE AGAIN THE HRRR AND RAP13 DEVELOP FOG BY
SUNRISE...THEN DRAIN SOME OF IT SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD PIPESTONE AND
LUVERNE MN ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE BUFFALO RIDGE. ACCOUNTED FOR
THIS POSSIBILITY IN THE FORECAST BY ADDING AN AREAS OF FOG MENTION
FOR OUR EAST CENTRAL SD ZONES. OTHERWISE ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT SHOULD
ABATE BY AROUND 15Z OR SLIGHTLY LATER...LEAVING SOME CIRRUS IN PLACE
FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. BUT HIGHS LOOK VERY MILD...WITH THE RAW
BIAS CORRECTED VALUES LOOKING THE BEST IN GIVING READINGS WELL INTO
THE 70S. WINDS AS THEY SHIFT TO THE WEST OR NORTHWEST WILL ALSO NOT
BECOME VERY STRONG AT ALL...SO LOOKS LIKE A VERY PLEASANT AFTERNOON.
NOT A LOT GOING ON TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. GENERALLY
LOOKING AT LOWS ABOUT 40 TO 45 UNDER LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014
STILL LOOKS LIKE A PLEASANT WEEKEND ACROSS THE REGION WITH UPPER
RIDGING BUILDING IN. TEMPERATURES ALOFT COOL A BIT BEHIND TODAYS
FRONT...BUT SHOULD STILL SEE 60S AND 70S BOTH DAYS. BASED ON LATEST
GUIDANCE...DID BUMP HIGHS UP A TAD BOTH DAYS. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
SUNDAY...AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. COULD BE ENOUGH TO GET
SOME LOW STRATUS TO DEVELOP...WHICH IF IT DOES...COULD HOLD
TEMPERATURES DOWN. SO WILL STAY CONSERVATIVE ON HIGHS SUNDAY...BUT
IF IT STAYS SUNNY WILL LIKELY END UP WARMER THAN CURRENT FORECAST.
SHOULD STAY DRY THROUGH SUNDAY...AS DESPITE SOME FORCING...MID
LEVELS REMAIN QUITE DRY. LOOKING AT LOWS IN THE 40S SATURDAY NIGHT
AND CLOSER TO 50 SUNDAY NIGHT AS WE STAY MORE MIXED.
MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON EVOLUTION OF THE TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. BEST FORCING COMES POST
FRONTAL...AND LOOKS LIKE THE TROUGH WILL STAY POSITIVELY TITLED AS IT
SWINGS ACROSS. THUS FORCING AND MOISTURE NOT ALL THAT GREAT. STILL
LOOKS LIKE WE COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...BUT
NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT. WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
COLDER TEMPERATURES MOVING IN ALOFT...MONDAY WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE
50S AND 60S...WARMEST IN NORTHWEST IOWA.
COLDER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE TROUGH...WITH TUESDAY LIKELY THE
COOLEST DAY. WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN WHAT WE HAVE BEEN
SEEING...WITH LOW TO MID 50S EXPECTED. ALTHOUGH THESE VALUES ARE
ONLY SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE. SHOULD BE BREEZY ON TUESDAY AS
WELL...WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING AROUND 30 MPH. MODELS
DIVERGE MID WEEK...DUE TO DIFFERENCES ON STRENGTH OF OUR NEXT
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE. SO FOR NOW WILL STAY WITH CONSENSUS VALUES
FOR HIGHS...GIVING MID 50S. AT THIS TIME DOES NOT LOOK LIKE WE SEE
ANY GREAT RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHTS...WITH HIGH PRESSURE NEVER
SETTLING OVERHEAD. THUS DESPITE THE COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT...AS
OF NOW JUST GOING WITH LOWS IN THE 30S TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. NOT SEEING ANY GREAT PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH
THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS OF NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1138 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z SAT.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CHAPMAN
SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...CHENARD
AVIATION...CHAPMAN