Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 10/23/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FLAGSTAFF AZ
945 AM MST TUE OCT 21 2014
.SYNOPSIS...THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS
THROUGH TODAY...MAINLY OVER EASTERN ARIZONA. DRIER AIR ARRIVES
TONIGHT WITH A WARMING TREND DEVELOPING FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...MENTION OF SHOWERS FOR THE AM HOURS TODAY WAS REMOVED.
LEFT PRECIP CHC`S FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS IS. ONE CAVEAT FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS NO. AZ TODAY...ON
SATELLITE MAY BE 3-4 HOURS FASTER THAN WHAT MODELS ARE CURRENTLY
ADVERTISING. THE HRRR RUN MAY BE CATCHING UP ON THIS AND INDICATING
NO SHOWERS FOR THE COCONINO PLATEAU...WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM...AND
PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM. LOOKS LIKE THE CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAYBE CONFINED MORE TO NAVAJO AND APACHE
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. WILL WATCH FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS TO
DETERMINE IF WE NEED TO CUT BACK ON PRECIP CHC`S OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF NO. AZ.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /350 AM MST/...A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN GREAT BASIN WILL PUSH A DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA BY
THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...LINGERING MOISTURE MAY STILL BE
DEEP ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY EAST OF FLAGSTAFF. DRIER AIR WILL TRAIL THE
FRONT TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL FINALLY
END. RISING HGHTS WILL PRODUCE A WARMING TREND FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEKEND. MODELS ARE HINTING
AT A FAIRLY STRONG FRONT BY SUNDAY OR MONDAY...BUT DETAILS ARE
SKETCHY. FOR NOW...WE HAVE INDICATED A COOLING TREND AND AT LEAST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS RETURNING TO THE AREA BY SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...VFR FOR MOST OF THE AREA FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. RESIDUAL MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW WIDELY SCT
-SHRA/-TSRA BTWN 18Z TUE-02Z WEDS EAST OF A KPRC-KGCN LINE WITH
CLOUD BASES AOA 11KFT MSL AND LCL CIGS AT 3KFT AGL ALONG THE
MOGOLLON RIM. CLEARING SKIES AFT 03Z WEDS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC.........TC/PETERSON
AVIATION.......MAS
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
910 AM MST TUE OCT 21 2014
.SYNOPSIS...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF
TUCSON INTO THIS EVENING. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING DRY
CONDITIONS THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK ALONG WITH MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES. NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE IN SOME
LOCATIONS THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...WEAK UPPER LOW OVER SWRN NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING WILL
FILL AND MOVE EASTWARD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO BY THIS
EVENING. THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS GREENLEE...GRAHAM AND COCHISE
COUNTIES FROM LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS EVENING. THE BULK OF THESE
SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOULD BE CONFINED MAINLY NEAR THE MOUNTAINS AS PER
THE RUC HRRR. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT NEAR
THE NEW MEXICO BORDER.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL THEN AMPLIFY OVER THE SWRN CONUS WED-FRI.
THE UPPER HIGH WILL THEN MOVE EAST OF THE AREA SAT IN RESPONSE TO A
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ENTERING THE WEST COAST. INCREASING HEIGHTS/
THICKNESSES WILL SUPPORT A STRONG WARMING TREND...WITH RECORD OR
NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPS THUR-SAT. ASSUMING PROGGED 850-700 MB
THICKNESSES AROUND 165.5 DM TO BE REALITY...HIGH TEMPS WILL AVERAGE
ABOUT 9-12 DEGS F OR SO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. SATURDAY MAY VERY WELL
BE THE WARMEST DAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.
THEREAFTER...A PRONOUNCED COOLING TREND IS ON TAP SUN-MON GIVEN
HEIGHT/THICKNESS FALLS AS THE WEST COAST TROUGH MOVES EWD INTO THE
CENTRAL/SRN ROCKIES.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 22/18Z.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED -TSRA/-SHRA WILL OCCUR EAST OF KTUS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN OCCUR AREA-WIDE LATE
TONIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY MORNING. CLOUD DECKS KTUS VICINITY EASTWARD
LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS EVENING WILL BE AT 6-10K FT AGL...THEN
CLEAR SKIES TO SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND 10K FT AGL LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES TO SCATTERED CLOUDS ABOVE 20K
FT AGL WEST OF KTUS THRU WEDNESDAY MORNING. SURFACE WIND WILL BE
LESS THAN 10 KTS THRU WEDNESDAY MORNING. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING EAST OF TUCSON. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. 20-FOOT
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE TERRAIN DRIVEN AND LESS THAN 15 MPH THIS
WEEK.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
FRANCIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
952 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH PERIODS OF
RAINFALL. THE STEADIEST RAIN LOOKS TO OCCUR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME SUN ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 950 PM EDT...BANDS OF RAIN CONTINUE TO PINWHEEL ACROSS THE
FA FROM EAST TO WEST WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER EMBEDDED BANDS NOW
MOVING TOWARDS THE HUDSON VALLEY ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES AND
SOUTHERN VERMONT. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. A
DOUBLE BARREL SURFACE LOW IS EXTENDING FROM JUST SOUTHEAST OF LONG
ISLAND TO JUST OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. THIS SYSTEM IS
SLOWLY DRIFTING TOWARDS THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. THE CYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND THIS SYSTEM IS BRINGING PLENTY OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE UP AND
AROUND THE UPPER LOW AND INTO NEW ENGLAND. 850 HPA EASTERLY WIND
ANOMALIES REACH 3-5 STD ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE TONIGHT...SHOWING AN
IMPRESSIVE PUSH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM AN
EASTERLY DIRECTION. BOTH OUR LOCAL HIRESWRF AND THE 3KM HRRR SHOW
THE SHOWERS EVOLVING INTO A STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL BY
LATE TONIGHT. SFC WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH AT AROUND 10
MPH...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...AS AIR IS
FUNNELED DOWN BETWEEN THE TERRAIN. RAINFALL WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT TO MODERATE IN INTENSITY...ALTHOUGH A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN ARE ALSO EXPECTED.
WITH CLOUDY AND DANK CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...TEMPS WON/T DROP OFF
TOO MUCH FROM THEIR CURRENT READINGS. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO
MAINLY BE IN THE 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ON THURSDAY...THE STACKED LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE FROM JUST
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND TO SOUTH OF CAPE COD. THE CYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF CLOUDS
ACROSS OUR AREA. PERIODS OF STEADY RAINFALL EARLY IN THE DAY WILL
TURN INTO SHOWERS TOWARDS EVENING. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOL
DUE TO THE CLOUDS/RAIN...WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S...WARMEST IN SOUTHERN AREAS.
THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...AS THE LOW SLOWLY LIFTS TOWARDS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AND WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM. THE
STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
TOWARDS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT THERE STILL WILL BE SOME
SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME. IT LOOKS TO REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY AS
WELL...AS THERE WILL BE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. LOWS
ON THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...AND HIGHS
ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.
CLOUDS MAY FINALLY START TO BREAK UP ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN
AREAS. MIN TEMPS ON FRI NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY INITIALLY UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS DURING THE WEEKEND BEFORE IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR THE
START OF NEXT WEEK.
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE COASTAL LOW AND DEEP
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXITING NORTHEAST TO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...WITH THE FORECAST AREA UNDERNEATH A NORTHWEST FLOW
REGIME. A POTENT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL QUICKLY DIVE
SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN CANADA IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW SATURDAY AND
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST
OF THE CAPITAL REGION TO FAVORABLE UPSLOPE AREAS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. ENOUGH FORCING LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE TO MENTION WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION. SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO THE DAY SUNDAY AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND FOR THE START OF
NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHTS
RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION. DRY WEATHER AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY ALONG WITH SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS POTENTIALLY REACHING 70 ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY.
LONG TERM GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE HANDLING THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT THAT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE
COUNTRY AND MOVE EAST DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTION OF NEXT
WEEK. HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES...WITH THE 12Z GFS BEING
SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER THAN THE 12Z ECMWF DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF SLOWS THE FRONTAL
PROGRESSION AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THE WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE MID-HUDSON
VALLEY...BEFORE WARMING FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK INTO THE MID 50S
TO MID 60S ACROSS THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF THE DELMARVA
WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
PROVIDING A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
AS WE GO THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...ALL TAF SITES WILL EXPERIENCE VCSH
TO AT TIMES -RA CONDITIONS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY BEGINS TO
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE. AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE TAF PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FOR KALB/KPOU/KGFL ALONG
THE HUDSON VALLEY...NORTHERLY WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 20 KNOTS. WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE TO NEAR 10 KNOTS AS WE GO INTO THE OVERNIGHT. AS WE
GO PAST 06Z THURSDAY...SOME OF THE SAME AREAS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY COULD EXPERIENCE LOW CEILINGS AND MORE PERSISTENT RAINFALL
WITH IFR CONDITIONS. IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES TO MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE PAST 12Z WITH LOW CEILINGS BEING THE MAIN IMPACT.
NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW AFTER 12Z
TO THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 00Z FRIDAY FOR ALL TAF SITES.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS DUE TO A SLOW MOVING COASTAL LOW. PERIODS OF RAINFALL WILL
OCCUR AS WELL...ESP TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. AS A RESULT...RH VALUES
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED...MAINLY OVER 70 PERCENT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 5 TO 15 MPH OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
PERIODS OF RAINFALL WILL OCCUR THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. THE RAIN MAY BRIEFLY FALL MODERATE
IN INTENSITY AT TIMES. THROUGH FRIDAY...ABOUT AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF
RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY UP TO TWO INCHES ACROSS THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS IN SOUTHERN VERMONT.
DUE TO RECENT DRY WEATHER...THIS RAINFALL IS RATHER BENEFICIAL TO
THE REGION. THERE MAY BE SOME RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO
RIVER FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. THERE MAY BE SOME
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS OR FIELDS...OR IN POOR DRAINAGE
LOCATIONS...BUT THIS SHOULD BE RATHER MINIMAL IN IMPACT.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...LFM/11
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
709 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH PERIODS OF
RAINFALL. THE STEADIEST RAIN LOOKS TO OCCUR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME SUN ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 610 PM EDT...BOTH A SFC LOW AND A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
SITUATED JUST OFF THE DELMARVA REGION. THIS SYSTEM IS SLOWLY
DRIFTING TOWARDS THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND
THIS SYSTEM IS BRINGING PLENTY OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE UP AND AROUND
THE UPPER LOW AND INTO NEW ENGLAND. SOME SHOWERS HAVE MOVED FROM
EAST TO WEST ACROSS OUR AREA LATE THIS AFTN...AND THIS LOOKS TO
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WELL. 850 HPA
EASTERLY WIND ANOMALIES REACH 3-5 STD ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE
TONIGHT...SHOWING AN IMPRESSIVE PUSH OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM AN EASTERLY DIRECTION. BOTH OUR
LOCAL HIRESWRF AND THE 3KM HRRR SHOW THE SHOWERS EVOLVING INTO A
STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL BY LATE TONIGHT. SFC WINDS WILL
BE OUT OF THE NORTH AT AROUND 10 MPH...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS IN
THE HUDSON VALLEY...AS AIR IS FUNNELED DOWN BETWEEN THE TERRAIN.
RAINFALL WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT IN INTENSITY...ALTHOUGH A FEW
BRIEF PERIODS OF MORE MODERATE RAINFALL CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
WITH CLOUDY AND DANK CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...TEMPS WON/T DROP OFF
TOO MUCH FROM THEIR CURRENT READINGS. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO
MAINLY BE IN THE 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ON THURSDAY...THE STACKED LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE FROM JUST
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND TO SOUTH OF CAPE COD. THE CYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF CLOUDS
ACROSS OUR AREA. PERIODS OF STEADY RAINFALL EARLY IN THE DAY WILL
TURN INTO SHOWERS TOWARDS EVENING. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOL
DUE TO THE CLOUDS/RAIN...WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S...WARMEST IN SOUTHERN AREAS.
THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...AS THE LOW SLOWLY LIFTS TOWARDS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AND WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM. THE
STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
TOWARDS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT THERE STILL WILL BE SOME
SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME. IT LOOKS TO REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY AS
WELL...AS THERE WILL BE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. LOWS
ON THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...AND HIGHS
ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.
CLOUDS MAY FINALLY START TO BREAK UP ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN
AREAS. MIN TEMPS ON FRI NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY INITIALLY UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS DURING THE WEEKEND BEFORE IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR THE
START OF NEXT WEEK.
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE COASTAL LOW AND DEEP
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXITING NORTHEAST TO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...WITH THE FORECAST AREA UNDERNEATH A NORTHWEST FLOW
REGIME. A POTENT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL QUICKLY DIVE
SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN CANADA IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW SATURDAY AND
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST
OF THE CAPITAL REGION TO FAVORABLE UPSLOPE AREAS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. ENOUGH FORCING LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE TO MENTION WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION. SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO THE DAY SUNDAY AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND FOR THE START OF
NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHTS
RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION. DRY WEATHER AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY ALONG WITH SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS POTENTIALLY REACHING 70 ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY.
LONG TERM GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE HANDLING THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT THAT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE
COUNTRY AND MOVE EAST DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTION OF NEXT
WEEK. HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES...WITH THE 12Z GFS BEING
SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER THAN THE 12Z ECMWF DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF SLOWS THE FRONTAL
PROGRESSION AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THE WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE MID-HUDSON
VALLEY...BEFORE WARMING FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK INTO THE MID 50S
TO MID 60S ACROSS THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF THE DELMARVA
WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
PROVIDING A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
AS WE GO THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...ALL TAF SITES WILL EXPERIENCE VCSH
TO AT TIMES -RA CONDITIONS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY BEGINS TO
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE. AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE TAF PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FOR KALB/KPOU/KGFL ALONG
THE HUDSON VALLEY...NORTHERLY WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 20 KNOTS. WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE TO NEAR 10 KNOTS AS WE GO INTO THE OVERNIGHT. AS WE
GO PAST 06Z THURSDAY...SOME OF THE SAME AREAS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY COULD EXPERIENCE LOW CEILINGS AND MORE PERSISTENT RAINFALL
WITH IFR CONDITIONS. IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES TO MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE PAST 12Z WITH LOW CEILINGS BEING THE MAIN IMPACT.
NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW AFTER 12Z
TO THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 00Z FRIDAY FOR ALL TAF SITES.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS DUE TO A SLOW MOVING COASTAL LOW. PERIODS OF RAINFALL WILL
OCCUR AS WELL...ESP TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. AS A RESULT...RH VALUES
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED...MAINLY OVER 70 PERCENT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 5 TO 15 MPH OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
PERIODS OF RAINFALL WILL OCCUR THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. THE RAIN MAY BRIEFLY FALL MODERATE
IN INTENSITY AT TIMES. THROUGH FRIDAY...ABOUT AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF
RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY UP TO TWO INCHES ACROSS THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS IN SOUTHERN VERMONT.
DUE TO RECENT DRY WEATHER...THIS RAINFALL IS RATHER BENEFICIAL TO
THE REGION. THERE MAY BE SOME RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO
RIVER FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. THERE MAY BE SOME
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS OR FIELDS...OR IN POOR DRAINAGE
LOCATIONS...BUT THIS SHOULD BE RATHER MINIMAL IN IMPACT.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...LFM/11
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1229 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014
.DISCUSSION...
249 PM CDT
TONIGHT...
UPPER LEVEL WAVE CONTINUES TO ROTATE OVER NORTHEAST ONTARIO...WITH A
A COUPLE WEAK LOBES OF VORTICITY ROTATING AROUND THE BACK EDGE OF
THIS SYSTEM...PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. VISIBLE
IMAGERY SHOWS CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER ACROSS MICHIGAN...STRETCHING
WEST ACROSS THE LAKE AND BEGINNING TO SLIDE INTO FAR NORTHEAST IL.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS WAVE AS IT
PUSHES SOUTHEAST ACROSS WISCONSIN AND PERHAPS INTO FAR NORTHEAST IL
LATE THIS EVE...BEFORE SHIFTING EAST INTO FAR NORTHWEST IN BY
DAYBREAK TUE. OTHERWISE EXPECT CLOUDS TO THICKEN THIS EVE ACROSS THE
CWFA...PERHAPS LESS CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE FAR WEST/SOUTHWEST
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE CLOUD COVER TONIGHT...THIS
SHOULD KEEP TEMPS GENERALLY AROUND 40 TO THE LOW 40S TONIGHT.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
500MB TROUGH AXIS WILL BEGIN TO PUSH EAST...WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGE BEGINNING TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THIS WILL BRING A BROAD SFC RIDGE TO THE AREA STRETCHING FROM
CENTRAL CANADA SOUTH TO THE WESTERN GULF. GUIDANCE THEN CONTINUES TO
MAINTAIN THIS FEATURE THROUGH THUR MORNING...HOWEVER THERE IS A WEAK
WAVE SLIDING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WED NGT THAT IS PROGGED
TO LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE CWFA THUR AFTN/EVE. THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING
SOME LIGHT PRECIP TO THE AREA...BUT AT THIS TIME HAVE ONLY GONE WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS GIVEN THE MOISTURE AVAILABILITY APPEARS TO BE
MINIMAL. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPR 50S TO LOW 60S...WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO FEATURE A TROUGH PERSISTING ALONG THE FAR
SOUTHWEST CONUS...ALLOWING RIDGING TO DOMINATE THE CENTRAL CONUS
LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THE DRY
PATTERN FOR THE REGION. IN ADDITION IT APPEARS TEMPS WILL BE ABLE TO
STEADILY MODERATE...PERHAPS REACHING THE UPR 60S TO ARND 70.
ENSEMBLES DO SUGGEST THAT TOWARDS THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND THE
RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT EAST...WITH A TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE
CENTRAL CONUS AND PERHAPS BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER BACK INTO THE
REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BEACHLER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS 10-14 KTS AND GUSTY MID MORNING THRU LATE
AFTERNOON.
* SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHRA MID MORNING THRU MID AFTERNOON.
* POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS MID MORNING THRU MID AFTERNOON. CMS
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES AND
NORTHERN IL LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS
AROUND/JUST UNDER 10KTS BEFORE SUNRISE WILL TURN MORE TO THE
NORTHEAST MID/LATE MORNING AND INCREASE IN SPEED TO 10-14KTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS IN THE UPPER TEEN RANGE LIKELY. SPEEDS/GUSTS SHOULD
QUICKLY DIMINISH BY EARLY EVENING AS THE HIGH CONTINUES BUILDING
SOUTHEAST.
COLDER AIR SPREADING SOUTH WILL AID LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS MORNING WHICH WILL AFFECT NORTHWEST INDIANA
AND GYY...BUT AS WINDS TURN NORTHEAST...MAY MOVE WEST TOWARD ORD
AND MDW. CONFIDENCE REGARDING HOW WIDESPREAD THE SHOWERS BECOME IS
FAIRLY LOW...AND THUS JUST NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH ON COVERAGE TO
INCLUDE AT ORD OR MDW. TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED THRU THE
MORNING.
VFR CIGS 4-5KFT EXTEND WELL NORTH INTO WI WITH MVFR OVER THE UPPER
PENINSULA AND FAR NORTHEAST WI. AS THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES...IT
WILL LIKELY PUSH CIGS INTO HIGH MVFR...BUT CONFIDENCE ALSO REMAINS
LOW FOR DURATION OF MVFR CIGS. CMS
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* HIGH FOR WIND SPEEDS/GUSTS/DIRECTIONS THRU THE PERIOD.
* LOW FOR SHRA MID MORNING THRU MID AFTERNOON.
* MEDIUM FOR MVFR CIGS...LOW FOR TIMING/DURATION. CMS
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
* WEDNESDAY...DRY/VFR. EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS.
* THURSDAY...DRY/VFR. SOUTH WINDS.
* FRIDAY...DRY/VFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS.
* SATURDAY...DRY/VFR. WEST WINDS.
* SUNDAY...DRY/VFR. SOUTH WINDS.
MDB
&&
.MARINE...
250 PM...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE REGION CENTERED
OVER NORTHERN LAKE HURON LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY DRIFT EAST OVERNIGHT. THIS LOW WILL THEN REACH LAKE ONTARIO
AROUND DAYBREAK TUE. THE BACK EDGE OF THIS LOW CONTINUES TO
FEATURE A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT...WHICH HAS PRODUCED GUSTY
WINDS JUST BEGINNING TO SLIDE OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
LAKE. THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY SLIDE SOUTH THIS
EVENING...AND EXPECT NORTH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
ONTARIO WILL BEGIN TO BUILD SOUTH OVERNIGHT...THEN STRETCH FROM
ONTARIO SOUTH TO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY TUE NGT. THIS WILL
BRING MUCH LIGHTER WINDS TO THE LAKE BY WED.
BEACHLER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1138 PM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 900 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014
A cold front will continue to depart to the southeast of Illinois,
as high pressure begins to build into IL from the west. However, a
broad area of cloud cover upstream in eastern Wisconsin and NE
Illinois will continue to stream to the SE and affect our forecast
area mainly northeast of a line from Peoria to Paris. The
additional cloud cover could keep low temps slightly warmer in the
NE areas. Western areas will have more favorable radiational
cooling conditions under clear skies and light winds in the face
of advancing high pressure. That should allow low temps to dip
toward 40 degrees in a few locations west and north of Lincoln.
Clouds should clear out of eastern areas Tuesday morning, for a
mostly sunny day and highs in the upper 50s to low 60s.
Only minor adjustments were needed to low temps and sky
conditions, so no formal product updates will be needed this evening.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014
Weak low pressure over the Great Lakes this afternoon with a weak
boundary trailing out behind it through Central and Southeastern
Illinois. Forecast for the overnight rather quiet with
northwesterly flow continuing, though the winds may be variable at
times, becoming light after sunset. Dry air filtering into the CWA
as the overnight cools should keep the RH just sub saturation. This
in concert with winds at or above 5kt or so...fog issues are not
expected. However, another wave making its way into the larger
scale trof from nrn MN is keeping a lobe of lower clouds a bit
further out to the west. This particular area is expected to dive
southeast in the overnight hours...while the rest of the system
pulls out to the east on the synoptic scale. The NAM is keeping the
llvls far more significant and brushing ILX northeast with the edge
of the more substantial cloud cover. Remaining models not really
holding onto as much. Sat imagery also shows a slow erosion of the
western edge of the clouds...as well as the HRRR supporting the
clouds staying to the north and northeast. It may be close, but
leaving the overnight mostly clear and lows dipping into the low to
mid 40s.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014
As the 500 mb wave cuts off over the eastern Great Lakes tomorrow,
the northeast CWA will be on the southwest fringe of better
moist/cyclonic flow, and will be close to strato-cu deck. Most
high-res models keep thicker cloud cover to our east and will
continue to trend forecast that way. Regardless, highs will be
several degrees below normal, ranging from the mid 50s northeast to
low 60 in the south/southwest.
Wednesday and Thursday...Surface and and upper level ridging shift across
the Midwest ahead of the next upper level weakness moving into the
northern Plains. This will provide clear/dry and seasonably cool
weather. As the next system shifts into the upper Midwest, showers
should overspread Iowa and Missouri early Thursday. However as the
dynamics with this feature shift east of the Mississippi River it
will encounter increasingly dry air and surface/upper ridging. As a
result most of the shower activity is expected to decay during the
afternoon/evening as it shifts through the northern half of the
CWA. Slight chance pops will cover this possibility.
Friday through Monday...Medium range guidance/ensembles show good
agreement that a pronounced warming trend will affect the region.
This will result from troughs affecting the west and east coasts,
allowing upper ridging to build across the central U.S., and drawing
up a thermal ridge from the southern Plains, pushing 850 mb temps to
+12-16 C this weekend. Friday will see some moderation with
readings returning near to slightly above normal. In a rarity for
early fall, highs on Saturday and Sunday are progged to be 10-15
degrees above normal without strong winds aiding in low level warm
advection, due to high pressure in the vicinity. If the GFS is
correct, southerly flow will increase later Sunday in tightening
gradient ahead of the next low pressure complex in the Plains. As
this system shifts east it will bring the next chance of rain to the
region for early next week. Considerable uncertainty exists at
that range, with the 12z ECMWF depicting a much weaker system.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014
VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. The only
clouds of note will be VFR clouds at 6K FT streaming across NE
Illinois. Based on forecast soundings and satellite trends, it
appears those clouds will likely affect our area northeast of a
line from Peoria to Mattoon, including BMI and CMI. A BKN deck
may develop from time to time near BMI/CMI during the first 6-8
hours of the TAF period. Those clouds may linger as long as late
Tuesday afternoon just east of Champaign, but will not affect
aviation flight categories at all.
High pressure advancing into IL behind a cold front has already
produced light and variable winds, with a general direction from
the north. After sunrise tomorrow, wind direction should become
NNE around 8-10kt. After sunset, winds will become easterly and
diminish to 6kt or less.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Shimon
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...25
AVIATION...Shimon
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
731 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE CLEAR OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF
MICHIGAN AND INDIANA. CLOUDS OVER EASTERN AREAS WILL SLOWLY ERODE
THIS EVENING LEAVING BEHIND PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL REACH THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014
DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA AND RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER
CONDITIONS...A FEW WEATHER ISSUES DO PERSIST WITH RESPECT TO CLOUD
COVER AND TEMPERATURES TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY TELLS THE STORY WITH STRATUS DECK STILL
LINGERING OVER EASTERN HALF OF FORECAST AREA AS OF 18Z. SOME SLOW
EROSION HAS BEEN NOTED OVER WESTERN EDGE AND SOME CLEARING
APPROACHING FROM NORTHEAST PER LIGHT NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL WINDS.
MODELS REMAIN RATHER PERSISTENT THAT AREA OF STRATUS WILL CONTINUE
TO THIN AND DISSIPATE THIS EVENING PER HRRR RH AND TOTAL CLOUD COVER
PLOTS ALONG WITH LATEST RAP13 RH FIELDS IN THE 900-850MB LAYERS.
CONCERN THOUGH LIES WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH
A RATHER STOUT LOW LEVEL INVERSION. 925-850MB THERMAL RIDGE REMAINS
OVER EASTERN IL AND WESTERN IN THROUGH THE NIGHT ALONG WITH 500MB
RIDGE AXIS. TYPICALLY STRATUS EROSION DOES NOT OCCUR UNTIL PASSAGE
OF THESE FEATURES. HOWEVER...SOUNDINGS SHOW A VERY DRY AIRMASS
SITTING ATOP VERY THIN LAYER OF CLOUDS AND INCREASING SUBSIDENCE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY CONTINUE TO ERODE THE CLOUD DECK
AS ADVERTISED. HAVE CONTINUED TO SLOW THE EROSION IN THE SKY COVER
GRIDS BUT DID KEEP THE OPTIMISTIC ATTITUDE IN ORDER TO MATCH
SURROUNDING SITES FOR A MORE CONSISTENT LOOKING FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES TO BE IMPACTED SIGNIFICANTLY IF THESE CLOUDS DO HOLD ON
THROUGH THE NIGHT. FOR NOW STAYED WITH PERSISTENCE AND OPTIMISTIC
FORECAST WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE LOWER AND MID 30S. PREVIOUS
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN THE BEST PERFORMING GUIDANCE OVER THE LAST
WEEK...15 DAYS AND 30 DAYS SO WILL RIDE WITH THAT. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW A VERY MOIST SHALLOW LAYER NEAR SURFACE UNDER
STRONG INVERSION WITH VERY DRY AIR ALOFT AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH A
DEEP COLUMN. THIS USUALLY AN IDEAL SETUP FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT SO
ADDED PATCHY FOG TO GRIDS.
EXPECT THURSDAY TO REMAIN DRY AHEAD OF NEXT WEAK SHORT WAVE WITH
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS IN THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. RAWBLEND
GUIDANCE PERFORMING BEST WITH MID TO UPPER 50S EXPECTED FOR HIGHS.
&&
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT WAS LAGGING BEHIND LOWER LEVELS...WITH QUESTIONABLE
SATURATION THROUGH THE CLOUD LAYER. REFINED THE TIMING OF THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS GIVEN THE LATEST MODEL EXPECTATIONS. VERY LITTLE
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM GIVEN LIMITED SATURATION...
WEAK LIFT AND LACK OF MOISTURE. A BACK DOOR TYPE OF FRONT SHOULD
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND BECOME STATIONARY NEAR OR OVER
THE FORECAST AREA. KEPT THE FORECAST DRY GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE AND
LIMITED LOW LEVEL FORCING ALONG THE FRONT. LOWERED HIGHS SUNDAY INTO
THE 50S NORTHEAST OF THE FRONT. THERE WAS MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. FAVOR THE GFS WHICH HAS
BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY THAN THE ECMWF WITH THE BEST CHANCE
FOR RAIN ABOUT TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 721 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014
LOW CLOUD DECK ALONG OH/IN BORDER EXPECTED TO CONT TO ERODE
OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER MI MOVES SLOWLY SE. STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED TO RESULT IN RADIATIONAL COOLING FOG
ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THU MORNING. MOISTURE IS QUITE SHALLOW SO
ONLY MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS. LIGHT E-NE
WINDS SHOULD VEER TO S-SW THU AS RIDGE MOVES SE TO THE OH VALLEY.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH DIURNAL LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY PERHAPS SUPPORTING SCT FAIR WX CU.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...LASHLEY
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...JT
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
212 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014
.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014
AN UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST KEEPING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
SMALL SHOWER CHANCES AROUND TODAY BUT THEN ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD IN. ANOTHER UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
BRINGING SMALL SHOWER CHANCES BEFORE MORE STOUT UPPER RIDGING BUILDS
IN THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY BELOW NORMAL UNTIL FRIDAY
AND THEN WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL FOR A FEW DAYS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1026 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014
PUSHED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH AS LAKE ENHANCED
SHOWERS ARE SURVIVING WELL INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. DOUBT THESE WILL
AMOUNT TO MUCH MORE THAN SPRINKLES...OR MAYBE A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS
AT BEST. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014
A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS MORNING ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE UPPER LOW AND COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND
EAST. HIGH UNCERTAINTY AND SMALL COVERAGE IF ANY SO KEPT TO A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING WITH PLACEMENT BASED ON THE HRRR
AND RUC OUTPUT. EXPECT SKIES TO BE MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR MOST OF THE DAY
WITH COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT ALLOWING QUICK DEVELOPMENT OF STRATOCU
WITH DAYTIME HEATING. FOR TEMPERATURES LEANED TOWARD COOLER MET
NUMBERS WITH EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014
BRIEF UPPER RIDGING WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND CONTINUED COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LOWS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL GET INTO
THE MID 30S IN PLACES AND WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE COULD SEE SOME FROST AROUND THE AREA. FOR NOW
PUT PATCHY FROST ANYWHERE LOWS WOULD GET BELOW 38 AND WILL NEED TO
MONITOR FOR ADVISORY POTENTIAL WITH UPCOMING FORECASTS.
ON THURSDAY NIGHT A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THAT WILL
BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AS WELL AS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A
LIGHT SHOWER ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 211 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG TERM PRODUCING DRY WEATHER OVER
CENTRAL INDIANA. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. NEXT POSSIBLE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH
THE AREA NEXT MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...AT THIS JUNCTURE ENSEMBLE MOISTURE
FIELDS LOOK VERY DRY SO LEFT IN ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS.
OTHERWISE NO CHANGES MADE TO THE SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 211800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1252 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
VFR STRATOCU CURRENTLY ENCOMPASSING THE FORECAST AREA AS ANOTHER
WAVE ALOFT TRACKS THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. STILL SEEING A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN INDIANA...AND IT/S STILL POSSIBLE
SOME OF THESE SHOWERS MAY GET FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO BRIEFLY IMPACT
KIND AND KLAF FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND HAVE MENTIONED VCSH FOR
THIS WITH NO VIS RESTRICTIONS. OTHERWISE WILL MAINTAIN A DRY
FORECAST. SKIES WILL CLEAR THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER WAVE
ROTATES AWAY TO THE EAST AND A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS
SOUTH INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. NORTHERLY WINDS AT 10-15KTS TODAY WILL
DIMINISH TO AROUND 5 KTS TONIGHT AND VEER NORTHEAST.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP/NIELD
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...SMF
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
126 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014
LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE CAROLINAS BY WEDNESDAY. SKIES WILL CLEAR ACROSS WESTERN AREAS
BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES HOLDING UNTIL TONIGHT
IN THE EAST. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 50S TODAY WITH LOWS TONIGHT
INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 850 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014
MIDLEVEL VORT MAX AND ASSOCIATED BROAD SURFACE TROUGH ARE CURRENTLY
PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE AREA. LATEST RADAR MOSAIC AND SURFACE OBS
INDICATE SEVERAL LOCATIONS ARE RECEIVING LIGHT...BUT MEASURABLE...
RAINFALL. PRECIP IS BEING FORCED BY MODEST DCVA AND LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE BUT IS ALSO BEING AIDED BY SOME LAKE INDUCED
INSTABILITY OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN. HAVE THEREFORE INCREASED POPS
FOR THE MORNING HOURS. STILL EXPECTING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS BY
THE AFTERNOON AS SHORTWAVE EXITS AND DRIER AIR IS ADVECTED SOUTH.
LATEST RAP AND HRRR SUPPORT THIS IDEA SO NO MAJOR CHANGES FOR THE
AFTERNOON PERIOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS. LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS AND LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH BY
LATE AFTERNOON AS FLOW BECOMES MORE N AND NE. WHILE SKIES WILL CLEAR
IN WESTERN AREAS LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT...CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER
LONGER AS CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS ACROSS EASTERN AREAS WITH SOME
CONTRIBUTION FROM LAKE HURON. THE RESULT WILL BE PARTLY IF NOT
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES LINGERING INTO TONIGHT ALONG/EAST OF I-69.
AS SKIES CLEAR...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO REBOUND SOMEWHAT BUT
WILL STILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
CLEARING IN THE WEST WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A COLD NIGHT WITH NE
FLOW USHERING IN DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 30S AND LOWS IN A SIMILAR
RANGE (LOW TO MID 30S). FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT WITH END OF
CLIMATOLOGICAL GROWING SEASON NO HEADLINES WILL BE ISSUED.
&&
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN THE PERIOD WILL MODERATE
TO NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO THE
EARLY PARTS NEXT WEEK.
ON TUESDAY...UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP INTO A CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS WILL PLACE LOCAL AREA INTO
UPPER LEVEL INFLECTION ZONE WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME STRATOCU
PERSISTING ACROSS MAINLY EASTERN LOCATIONS. MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES
BUILDING IN MORE AGGRESSIVELY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. SLOW PROGRESSION OF CLOSING OFF SYSTEM ACROSS
MID ATLANTIC WILL RESULT IN ONLY A VERY SLOW EASTWARD MIGRATION OF
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING...WHICH WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONE ANCHORED
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS SETUP SHOULD PROVIDE
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S...AND A FEW GOOD NIGHTS OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S (POSSIBLY LOWER 30S IN
COOL SPOTS). PER PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT SENT
YESTERDAY...FROST/FREZE HEADLINES HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR LOCAL
AREA DUE TO EFFECTIVE ENDING OF THE GROWING SEASON.
NEXT FEATURE OF INTEREST FOR THURSDAY WILL BE UPPER PV ANOMALY
APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL
DEFORMATION ASSOCIATED WITH SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD
ATTENUATE THIS PV ANOMALY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY RESULTING IN WANING UPPER FORCING.
NONETHELESS...ANOTHER NARROW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS WILL PRECEDE
THIS UPPER PV ANOMALY WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL WAA/MOISTURE ADVECTION AND
WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS OVERSPREADING THE AREA. NO CHANGE
NEEDED TO PREVIOUS SLIGHT CHANCE RAIN SHOWER POPS ACROSS THE WEST
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH LESSER CONFIDENCE ACROSS THE EAST DUE TO
WEAKENING NATURE OF UPPER PV ANOMALY.
UPPER RIDGE SHOULD EVENTUALLY GET PINCHED OFF FROM AFOREMENTIONED
TWO SYSTEMS...WITH RENEWED MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT RISES WORKING INTO
THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL MARK A MORE DISTINCT WARMING
TREND FOR SATURDAY/SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO INDICATE SOUTHEAST CANADIAN UPPER SHORT WAVE PROVIDING MORE
SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION PUSH ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES. ONLY ADJUSTMENT TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER
CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY...WITH A BIT SHARPER SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
GRADIENT IN MAX TEMPS ALTHOUGH STILL A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY IN
HOW FAR SOUTH STRONGER LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION IS ABLE TO PUSH
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
A SLIGHTLY FLATTER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN SHOULD SET UP EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH NEXT BROAD EASTERN PACIFIC WAVE BRINGING THE NEXT
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 126 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND THETA-E FLUX FROM THE GREAT LAKES IS
SUPPORTING HIGH END MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE AREA AT PRESS TIME.
EXPECT THIS STUBBORN STRATOCU DECK WILL GRADUALLY ERODE BY LATER
THIS EVENING BUT EXACT TIMING OF TRANSITION TO VFR CONDITIONS
REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND UPSTREAM OBS
STILL SHOW A LARGE AREA OF 3 KFT CEILINGS YET TO GO AND LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST CLOUDS WILL NOT SCATTER UNTIL AT LEAST
21-00Z. HAVE THEREFORE PUSHED BACK THE TRANSITION TO VFR CATEGORY
BY A FEW HOURS. FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...MUCH HIGHER CONFIDENCE
THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AND
SUBSIDENCE BUILD OVER THE REGION.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AGD
SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...AGD
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
109 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014
AN UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST KEEPING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
SMALL SHOWER CHANCES AROUND TODAY BUT THEN ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD IN. ANOTHER UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
BRINGING SMALL SHOWER CHANCES BEFORE MORE STOUT UPPER RIDGING BUILDS
IN THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY BELOW NORMAL UNTIL FRIDAY
AND THEN WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL FOR A FEW DAYS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1026 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014
PUSHED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH AS LAKE ENHANCED
SHOWERS ARE SURVIVING WELL INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. DOUBT THESE WILL
AMOUNT TO MUCH MORE THAN SPRINKLES...OR MAYBE A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS
AT BEST. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014
A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS MORNING ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE UPPER LOW AND COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND
EAST. HIGH UNCERTAINTY AND SMALL COVERAGE IF ANY SO KEPT TO A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING WITH PLACEMENT BASED ON THE HRRR
AND RUC OUTPUT. EXPECT SKIES TO BE MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR MOST OF THE DAY
WITH COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT ALLOWING QUICK DEVELOPMENT OF STRATOCU
WITH DAYTIME HEATING. FOR TEMPERATURES LEANED TOWARD COOLER MET
NUMBERS WITH EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014
BRIEF UPPER RIDGING WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND CONTINUED COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LOWS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL GET INTO
THE MID 30S IN PLACES AND WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE COULD SEE SOME FROST AROUND THE AREA. FOR NOW
PUT PATCHY FROST ANYWHERE LOWS WOULD GET BELOW 38 AND WILL NEED TO
MONITOR FOR ADVISORY POTENTIAL WITH UPCOMING FORECASTS.
ON THURSDAY NIGHT A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THAT WILL
BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AS WELL AS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A
LIGHT SHOWER ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 204 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014
DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THIS PERIOD AS ECMWF AND THE GFS BOTH
DEPICT A QUICK MOVING SHORT WAVE EXITING THE AREA EARLY ON FRIDAY
MORNING. A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BEFORE SLOWLY PROGRESSING EASTWARD
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE WILL ACCOMPANY THE RIDGE
ALOFT AND KEEP GENERALLY NORTHWEST TO WEST FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN DRY WEATHER
FOR CENTRAL INDIANA WITH TEMPERATURE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMALS.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 211800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1252 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
VFR STRATOCU CURRENTLY ENCOMPASSING THE FORECAST AREA AS ANOTHER
WAVE ALOFT TRACKS THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. STILL SEEING A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN INDIANA...AND IT/S STILL POSSIBLE
SOME OF THESE SHOWERS MAY GET FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO BRIEFLY IMPACT
KIND AND KLAF FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND HAVE MENTIONED VCSH FOR
THIS WITH NO VIS RESTRICTIONS. OTHERWISE WILL MAINTAIN A DRY
FORECAST. SKIES WILL CLEAR THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER WAVE
ROTATES AWAY TO THE EAST AND A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS
SOUTH INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. NORTHERLY WINDS AT 10-15KTS TODAY WILL
DIMINISH TO AROUND 5 KTS TONIGHT AND VEER NORTHEAST.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP/NIELD
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM...PUMA
AVIATION...SMF
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1026 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014
.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014
AN UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST KEEPING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
SMALL SHOWER CHANCES AROUND TODAY BUT THEN ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD IN. ANOTHER UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
BRINGING SMALL SHOWER CHANCES BEFORE MORE STOUT UPPER RIDGING BUILDS
IN THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY BELOW NORMAL UNTIL FRIDAY
AND THEN WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL FOR A FEW DAYS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1026 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014
PUSHED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH AS LAKE ENHANCED
SHOWERS ARE SURVIVING WELL INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. DOUBT THESE WILL
AMOUNT TO MUCH MORE THAN SPRINKLES...OR MAYBE A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS
AT BEST. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014
A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS MORNING ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE UPPER LOW AND COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND
EAST. HIGH UNCERTAINTY AND SMALL COVERAGE IF ANY SO KEPT TO A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING WITH PLACEMENT BASED ON THE HRRR
AND RUC OUTPUT. EXPECT SKIES TO BE MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR MOST OF THE DAY
WITH COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT ALLOWING QUICK DEVELOPMENT OF STRATOCU
WITH DAYTIME HEATING. FOR TEMPERATURES LEANED TOWARD COOLER MET
NUMBERS WITH EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014
BRIEF UPPER RIDGING WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND CONTINUED COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LOWS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL GET INTO
THE MID 30S IN PLACES AND WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE COULD SEE SOME FROST AROUND THE AREA. FOR NOW
PUT PATCHY FROST ANYWHERE LOWS WOULD GET BELOW 38 AND WILL NEED TO
MONITOR FOR ADVISORY POTENTIAL WITH UPCOMING FORECASTS.
ON THURSDAY NIGHT A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THAT WILL
BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AS WELL AS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A
LIGHT SHOWER ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 204 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014
DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THIS PERIOD AS ECMWF AND THE GFS BOTH
DEPICT A QUICK MOVING SHORT WAVE EXITING THE AREA EARLY ON FRIDAY
MORNING. A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BEFORE SLOWLY PROGRESSING EASTWARD
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE WILL ACCOMPANY THE RIDGE
ALOFT AND KEEP GENERALLY NORTHWEST TO WEST FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN DRY WEATHER
FOR CENTRAL INDIANA WITH TEMPERATURE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMALS.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 211500Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1008 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014
FOCUS OF UPDATE IS FOR KIND AND KLAF WHERE MVFR CEILINGS AND A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS MAKING MORE OF A PUSH SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.
ADDED VCSH AT BOTH SITES THROUGH 18-19Z WITH POSSIBILITY FOR
CEILINGS TO DROP TO 2000-2500FT PERIODICALLY AS WELL.
12Z DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
VFR STRATOCU PROGRESSING SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING AS ANOTHER WAVE ALOFT TRACKS THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES. SEEING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN INDIANA AS
WELL...AND ITS POSSIBLE SOME OF THESE SHOWERS MAY GET FAR ENOUGH
SOUTH TO BRIEFLY IMPACT KIND AND KLAF LATER THIS MORNING. WILL
MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST IN THE TERMINALS HOWEVER...WITH COVERAGE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SPARSE. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND RH PROGS SUGGEST
CEILINGS FALLING TO AROUND 3500FT FOR BULK OF THE DAY...ALTHOUGH
POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR CEILINGS TO BRIEFLY DIP TO MVFR AT KLAF.
SKIES WILL CLEAR THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER WAVE ROTATES AWAY TO
THE EAST AND A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS SOUTH INTO CENTRAL
INDIANA. NORTHERLY WINDS AT 10-15KTS TODAY WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND
5KTS TONIGHT AND VEER NORTHEAST.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP/NIELD
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM...PUMA
AVIATION...RYAN
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1008 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014
AN UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST KEEPING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
SMALL SHOWER CHANCES AROUND TODAY BUT THEN ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD IN. ANOTHER UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
BRINGING SMALL SHOWER CHANCES BEFORE MORE STOUT UPPER RIDGING BUILDS
IN THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY BELOW NORMAL UNTIL FRIDAY
AND THEN WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL FOR A FEW DAYS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014
A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS MORNING ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE UPPER LOW AND COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND
EAST. HIGH UNCERTAINTY AND SMALL COVERAGE IF ANY SO KEPT TO A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING WITH PLACEMENT BASED ON THE HRRR
AND RUC OUTPUT. EXPECT SKIES TO BE MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR MOST OF THE DAY
WITH COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT ALLOWING QUICK DEVELOPMENT OF STRATOCU
WITH DAYTIME HEATING. FOR TEMPERATURES LEANED TOWARD COOLER MET
NUMBERS WITH EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014
BRIEF UPPER RIDGING WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND CONTINUED COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LOWS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL GET INTO
THE MID 30S IN PLACES AND WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE COULD SEE SOME FROST AROUND THE AREA. FOR NOW
PUT PATCHY FROST ANYWHERE LOWS WOULD GET BELOW 38 AND WILL NEED TO
MONITOR FOR ADVISORY POTENTIAL WITH UPCOMING FORECASTS.
ON THURSDAY NIGHT A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THAT WILL
BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AS WELL AS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A
LIGHT SHOWER ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 204 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014
DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THIS PERIOD AS ECMWF AND THE GFS BOTH
DEPICT A QUICK MOVING SHORT WAVE EXITING THE AREA EARLY ON FRIDAY
MORNING. A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BEFORE SLOWLY PROGRESSING EASTWARD
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE WILL ACCOMPANY THE RIDGE
ALOFT AND KEEP GENERALLY NORTHWEST TO WEST FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN DRY WEATHER
FOR CENTRAL INDIANA WITH TEMPERATURE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMALS.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 211500Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1008 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014
FOCUS OF UPDATE IS FOR KIND AND KLAF WHERE MVFR CEILINGS AND A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS MAKING MORE OF A PUSH SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.
ADDED VCSH AT BOTH SITES THROUGH 18-19Z WITH POSSIBILITY FOR
CEILINGS TO DROP TO 2000-2500FT PERIODICALLY AS WELL.
12Z DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
VFR STRATOCU PROGRESSING SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING AS ANOTHER WAVE ALOFT TRACKS THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES. SEEING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN INDIANA AS
WELL...AND ITS POSSIBLE SOME OF THESE SHOWERS MAY GET FAR ENOUGH
SOUTH TO BRIEFLY IMPACT KIND AND KLAF LATER THIS MORNING. WILL
MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST IN THE TERMINALS HOWEVER...WITH COVERAGE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SPARSE. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND RH PROGS SUGGEST
CEILINGS FALLING TO AROUND 3500FT FOR BULK OF THE DAY...ALTHOUGH
POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR CEILINGS TO BRIEFLY DIP TO MVFR AT KLAF.
SKIES WILL CLEAR THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER WAVE ROTATES AWAY TO
THE EAST AND A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS SOUTH INTO CENTRAL
INDIANA. NORTHERLY WINDS AT 10-15KTS TODAY WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND
5KTS TONIGHT AND VEER NORTHEAST.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...RYAN
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
850 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014
LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE CAROLINAS BY WEDNESDAY. SKIES WILL CLEAR ACROSS WESTERN AREAS
BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES HOLDING UNTIL TONIGHT
IN THE EAST. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 50S TODAY WITH LOWS TONIGHT
INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 850 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014
MIDLEVEL VORT MAX AND ASSOCIATED BROAD SURFACE TROUGH ARE CURRENTLY
PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE AREA. LATEST RADAR MOSAIC AND SURFACE OBS
INDICATE SEVERAL LOCATIONS ARE RECEIVING LIGHT...BUT MEASURABLE...
RAINFALL. PRECIP IS BEING FORCED BY MODEST DCVA AND LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE BUT IS ALSO BEING AIDED BY SOME LAKE INDUCED
INSTABILITY OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN. HAVE THEREFORE INCREASED POPS
FOR THE MORNING HOURS. STILL EXPECTING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS BY
THE AFTERNOON AS SHORTWAVE EXITS AND DRIER AIR IS ADVECTED SOUTH.
LATEST RAP AND HRRR SUPPORT THIS IDEA SO NO MAJOR CHANGES FOR THE
AFTERNOON PERIOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS. LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS AND LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH BY
LATE AFTERNOON AS FLOW BECOMES MORE N AND NE. WHILE SKIES WILL CLEAR
IN WESTERN AREAS LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT...CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER
LONGER AS CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS ACROSS EASTERN AREAS WITH SOME
CONTRIBUTION FROM LAKE HURON. THE RESULT WILL BE PARTLY IF NOT
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES LINGERING INTO TONIGHT ALONG/EAST OF I-69.
AS SKIES CLEAR...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO REBOUND SOMEWHAT BUT
WILL STILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
CLEARING IN THE WEST WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A COLD NIGHT WITH NE
FLOW USHERING IN DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 30S AND LOWS IN A SIMILAR
RANGE (LOW TO MID 30S). FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT WITH END OF
CLIMATOLOGICAL GROWING SEASON NO HEADLINES WILL BE ISSUED.
&&
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN THE PERIOD WILL MODERATE
TO NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO THE
EARLY PARTS NEXT WEEK.
ON TUESDAY...UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP INTO A CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS WILL PLACE LOCAL AREA INTO
UPPER LEVEL INFLECTION ZONE WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME STRATOCU
PERSISTING ACROSS MAINLY EASTERN LOCATIONS. MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES
BUILDING IN MORE AGGRESSIVELY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. SLOW PROGRESSION OF CLOSING OFF SYSTEM ACROSS
MID ATLANTIC WILL RESULT IN ONLY A VERY SLOW EASTWARD MIGRATION OF
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING...WHICH WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONE ANCHORED
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS SETUP SHOULD PROVIDE
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S...AND A FEW GOOD NIGHTS OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S (POSSIBLY LOWER 30S IN
COOL SPOTS). PER PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT SENT
YESTERDAY...FROST/FREZE HEADLINES HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR LOCAL
AREA DUE TO EFFECTIVE ENDING OF THE GROWING SEASON.
NEXT FEATURE OF INTEREST FOR THURSDAY WILL BE UPPER PV ANOMALY
APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL
DEFORMATION ASSOCIATED WITH SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD
ATTENUATE THIS PV ANOMALY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY RESULTING IN WANING UPPER FORCING.
NONETHELESS...ANOTHER NARROW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS WILL PRECEDE
THIS UPPER PV ANOMALY WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL WAA/MOISTURE ADVECTION AND
WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS OVERSPREADING THE AREA. NO CHANGE
NEEDED TO PREVIOUS SLIGHT CHANCE RAIN SHOWER POPS ACROSS THE WEST
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH LESSER CONFIDENCE ACROSS THE EAST DUE TO
WEAKENING NATURE OF UPPER PV ANOMALY.
UPPER RIDGE SHOULD EVENTUALLY GET PINCHED OFF FROM AFOREMENTIONED
TWO SYSTEMS...WITH RENEWED MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT RISES WORKING INTO
THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL MARK A MORE DISTINCT WARMING
TREND FOR SATURDAY/SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO INDICATE SOUTHEAST CANADIAN UPPER SHORT WAVE PROVIDING MORE
SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION PUSH ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES. ONLY ADJUSTMENT TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER
CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY...WITH A BIT SHARPER SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
GRADIENT IN MAX TEMPS ALTHOUGH STILL A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY IN
HOW FAR SOUTH STRONGER LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION IS ABLE TO PUSH
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
A SLIGHTLY FLATTER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN SHOULD SET UP EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH NEXT BROAD EASTERN PACIFIC WAVE BRINGING THE NEXT
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 646 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014
SCATTERED LIGHT LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS
MORNING WITH MARGINAL LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY. A SHEARED UPPER
LEVEL VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER JET STREAK WILL ALSO BE
SHIFTING SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION OVER NEXT SEVERAL HOURS PROVIDING
SOME SYNOPTIC ENHANCEMENT. MAY INCLUDE A TEMPO -SHRA MENTION FOR
KSBN WITH THE 12Z TAFS ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SHORT LIVED
2-3K FT CIGS. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY VFR STRATOCU TODAY...AND
SHOULD DIMINISH IN COVERAGE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING
AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA. NORTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL VEER TO THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON...AND
BECOME LIGHT NORTHEAST TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVERSPREADS
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AGD
SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...MARSILI
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
725 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014
AN UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST KEEPING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
SMALL SHOWER CHANCES AROUND TODAY BUT THEN ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD IN. ANOTHER UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
BRINGING SMALL SHOWER CHANCES BEFORE MORE STOUT UPPER RIDGING BUILDS
IN THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY BELOW NORMAL UNTIL FRIDAY
AND THEN WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL FOR A FEW DAYS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014
A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS MORNING ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE UPPER LOW AND COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND
EAST. HIGH UNCERTAINTY AND SMALL COVERAGE IF ANY SO KEPT TO A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING WITH PLACEMENT BASED ON THE HRRR
AND RUC OUTPUT. EXPECT SKIES TO BE MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR MOST OF THE DAY
WITH COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT ALLOWING QUICK DEVELOPMENT OF STRATOCU
WITH DAYTIME HEATING. FOR TEMPERATURES LEANED TOWARD COOLER MET
NUMBERS WITH EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014
BRIEF UPPER RIDGING WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND CONTINUED COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LOWS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL GET INTO
THE MID 30S IN PLACES AND WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE COULD SEE SOME FROST AROUND THE AREA. FOR NOW
PUT PATCHY FROST ANYWHERE LOWS WOULD GET BELOW 38 AND WILL NEED TO
MONITOR FOR ADVISORY POTENTIAL WITH UPCOMING FORECASTS.
ON THURSDAY NIGHT A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THAT WILL
BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AS WELL AS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A
LIGHT SHOWER ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 204 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014
DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THIS PERIOD AS ECMWF AND THE GFS BOTH
DEPICT A QUICK MOVING SHORT WAVE EXITING THE AREA EARLY ON FRIDAY
MORNING. A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BEFORE SLOWLY PROGRESSING EASTWARD
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE WILL ACCOMPANY THE RIDGE
ALOFT AND KEEP GENERALLY NORTHWEST TO WEST FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN DRY WEATHER
FOR CENTRAL INDIANA WITH TEMPERATURE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMALS.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 211200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 725 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
VFR STRATOCU PROGRESSING SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING AS ANOTHER WAVE ALOFT TRACKS THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES. SEEING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN INDIANA AS
WELL...AND ITS POSSIBLE SOME OF THESE SHOWERS MAY GET FAR ENOUGH
SOUTH TO BRIEFLY IMPACT KIND AND KLAF LATER THIS MORNING. WILL
MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST IN THE TERMINALS HOWEVER...WITH COVERAGE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SPARSE. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND RH PROGS SUGGEST
CEILINGS FALLING TO AROUND 3500FT FOR BULK OF THE DAY...ALTHOUGH
POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR CEILINGS TO BRIEFLY DIP TO MVFR AT KLAF.
SKIES WILL CLEAR THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER WAVE ROTATES AWAY TO
THE EAST AND A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS SOUTH INTO CENTRAL
INDIANA. NORTHERLY WINDS AT 10-15KTS TODAY WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND
5KTS TONIGHT AND VEER NORTHEAST.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...RYAN
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
422 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014
AN UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST KEEPING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
SMALL SHOWER CHANCES AROUND TODAY BUT THEN ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD IN. ANOTHER UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
BRINGING SMALL SHOWER CHANCES BEFORE MORE STOUT UPPER RIDGING BUILDS
IN THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY BELOW NORMAL UNTIL FRIDAY
AND THEN WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL FOR A FEW DAYS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014
A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS MORNING ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE UPPER LOW AND COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND
EAST. HIGH UNCERTAINTY AND SMALL COVERAGE IF ANY SO KEPT TO A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING WITH PLACEMENT BASED ON THE HRRR
AND RUC OUTPUT. EXPECT SKIES TO BE MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR MOST OF THE DAY
WITH COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT ALLOWING QUICK DEVELOPMENT OF STRATOCU
WITH DAYTIME HEATING. FOR TEMPERATURES LEANED TOWARD COOLER MET
NUMBERS WITH EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014
BRIEF UPPER RIDGING WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND CONTINUED COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LOWS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL GET INTO
THE MID 30S IN PLACES AND WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE COULD SEE SOME FROST AROUND THE AREA. FOR NOW
PUT PATCHY FROST ANYWHERE LOWS WOULD GET BELOW 38 AND WILL NEED TO
MONITOR FOR ADVISORY POTENTIAL WITH UPCOMING FORECASTS.
ON THURSDAY NIGHT A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THAT WILL
BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AS WELL AS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A
LIGHT SHOWER ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 204 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014
DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THIS PERIOD AS ECMWF AND THE GFS BOTH
DEPICT A QUICK MOVING SHORT WAVE EXITING THE AREA EARLY ON FRIDAY
MORNING. A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BEFORE SLOWLY PROGRESSING EASTWARD
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE WILL ACCOMPANY THE RIDGE
ALOFT AND KEEP GENERALLY NORTHWEST TO WEST FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN DRY WEATHER
FOR CENTRAL INDIANA WITH TEMPERATURE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMALS.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 210900Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 422 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
ONGOING COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THAT IS
PUSHING SOUTHEAST OF CENTRAL INDIANA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SOME
LAKE EFFECT SC THAT GIVEN THE CURRENT TRAJECTORY SHOULD SWEEP BY THE
LAF AND IND TAF SITES OVERNIGHT BUT THIS IS ONLY RESULTING IN VFR
CEILINGS AROUND 5000-6000 FT.
BY TUESDAY MORNING MORE DRY AIR IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN CENTRAL
INDIANA AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CONVECTIVE FLAT TOPPED CU
DEVELOPMENT WITH A 825MB INVERSION IN PLACE. AFTER DIURNAL HEATING
IS LOST ON TOWARD 00Z WED...SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR AS VFR
CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JP/CP
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
353 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014
.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014
AN UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST KEEPING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
SMALL SHOWER CHANCES AROUND TODAY BUT THEN ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD IN. ANOTHER UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
BRINGING SMALL SHOWER CHANCES BEFORE MORE STOUT UPPER RIDGING BUILDS
IN THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY BELOW NORMAL UNTIL FRIDAY
AND THEN WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL FOR A FEW DAYS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014
A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS MORNING ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE UPPER LOW AND COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND
EAST. HIGH UNCERTAINTY AND SMALL COVERAGE IF ANY SO KEPT TO A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING WITH PLACEMENT BASED ON THE HRRR
AND RUC OUTPUT. EXPECT SKIES TO BE MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR MOST OF THE DAY
WITH COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT ALLOWING QUICK DEVELOPMENT OF STRATOCU
WITH DAYTIME HEATING. FOR TEMPERATURES LEANED TOWARD COOLER MET
NUMBERS WITH EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014
BRIEF UPPER RIDGING WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND CONTINUED COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LOWS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL GET INTO
THE MID 30S IN PLACES AND WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE COULD SEE SOME FROST AROUND THE AREA. FOR NOW
PUT PATCHY FROST ANYWHERE LOWS WOULD GET BELOW 38 AND WILL NEED TO
MONITOR FOR ADVISORY POTENTIAL WITH UPCOMING FORECASTS.
ON THURSDAY NIGHT A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THAT WILL
BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AS WELL AS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A
LIGHT SHOWER ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 204 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014
DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THIS PERIOD AS ECMWF AND THE GFS BOTH
DEPICT A QUICK MOVING SHORT WAVE EXITING THE AREA EARLY ON FRIDAY
MORNING. A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BEFORE SLOWLY PROGRESSING EASTWARD
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE WILL ACCOMPANY THE RIDGE
ALOFT AND KEEP GENERALLY NORTHWEST TO WEST FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN DRY WEATHER
FOR CENTRAL INDIANA WITH TEMPERATURE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMALS.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 210600Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1243 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014
BRIEF MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT LAF AND IND
OVERNIGHT...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
ONGOING COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THAT IS
PUSHING SOUTHEAST OF CENTRAL INDIANA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SOME
LAKE EFFECT SC THAT GIVEN THE CURRENT TRAJECTORY SHOULD SWEEP BY
THE LAF AND IND TAF SITES OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS.
BY TUESDAY MORNING MORE DRY AIR IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN CENTRAL
INDIANA AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CONVECTIVE FLAT TOPPED CU
DEVELOPMENT WITH A 825MB INVERSION IN PLACE. AFTER DIURNAL HEATING
IS LOST ON TOWARD 00Z WED...SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR AS VFR
CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JP
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
539 PM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014
...AVIATION UPDATE...
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014
At 3 PM this afternoon, water vapor imagery showed much of the
Plains region underneath upper ridging while the shortwave trough
was deepening across Idaho into southern Montana. Gusty southerly
winds at the surface were observed advecting moisture into central
KS as dewpoint temperatures were increasing to near 60 degrees.
Across northeast Kansas, highs were a tad cooler in the middle 70s
while influence from the sfc ridge to our east kept surface air
drier with dewpoints dropping into the lower 40s.
Surface trough deepens over eastern CO this evening inducing an
h85 low level jet to increase around 30 kts. Moisture advects
northeastward into the CWA as dewpoints rise into the 50s
overnight. Mixing between h85 and the surface also increases to
near 10 kts over north central areas where low level stratus
appears more likely as opposed to fog. Weak isentropic lift at the
300K surface seen from the NAM and 4-km WRF models show
development of isolated activity over far eastern KS just before
sunrise. With forcing being particularly weak and saturation being
brief in the morning, decided to mention a few sprinkles being
possible. Otherwise focus turns to the incoming trough Wednesday
afternoon with slight chances of precip mentioned after 18Z.
Timing between short term and mid term guidance shows the optimal
lift arriving in north central areas near 00Z, however could not
rule out scattered showers during the afternoon. Elevated
instability seen in only a few hundred J/KG may result in isolated
thunderstorms.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014
Upper trough continues to move across the forecast area in the early
morning hours on Thursday. Lapse rates and CAPE remain rather weak,
and progressive nature keeps chances for heavy rainfall on the low
side. Have precipitation clearing the area by Noon, but could be a
few hours faster. This keeps overnight lows in the 50s, and highs
still manage to make it back into the lower 70s after the trough
passes.
In terms of sensible weather, Friday through Sunday continue to
bring above normal temperatures with highs in the upper 70s near
80 each day and lows in the 50s. Winds initially vary a bit as low
pressure passes to our north, but come around out of the south by
late Saturday and increase on Sunday afternoon. Flow aloft makes a
shift from a passing upper ridge to an approaching trough with SW
flow over the state.
Timing of the next upper trough still in question, although both GFS
and latest EC bring the next front through on Monday afternoon. EC
had split the energy into northern and southern tracks but now
seems to be coming toward a single more progressive single wave.
Kept lower end rain chances on Monday, which could continue into
Tuesday if system slows a bit as EC suggests. May be cooler across
the NW counties on Monday as trough comes in and cooler on Tuesday
behind the system.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 539 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014
Models continue to show some moisture advection and isentropic
lift between 900MB and 850MB after 06Z. Only the NAM forecast
soundings suggest there is any instability with the RAP and GFS
maintaining some inhibition above this layer. Therefore will
maintain a dry forecast for the terminals overnight and monitor
trends. Larger scale forcing does not affect the area tomorrow
until after 00Z, so the forecast has VFR conditions persisting.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...Wolters
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1218 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014
...UPDATED THE AVIATION FORECAST...
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014
A RATHER ANOMALOUSLY HIGH UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WAS CENTERED
DIRECTLY OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS TODAY, WITH AFTERNOON RAP ANALYSIS
SHOWING A 583 DAM 500MB CENTER NEAR DODGE CITY. THIS RESULTED IN
LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. CLEAR SKIES
PREVAILED AFTER THE MORNING FOG AMIDST THE SUBSIDENCE. A WEAK
SURFACE FRONT PUSHED SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY, WHICH WAS STALLING
OUT AND DISSOLVING FROM THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA. THERE WAS A CORRIDOR OF 53-59F SURFACE DEWPOINTS EXTENDING
FROM THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. AS WINDS BECOME
EAST AND EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY TONIGHT, THIS MOISTURE WILL PULL WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD INTO FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND THE COLORADO BORDER. WE
EXPECT FOG AND PERHAPS DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP AGAIN LATE TONIGHT,
PRIMARILY 09Z AND LATER TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
FALL TO LOWS IN THE MID 40S AS A RULE ALONG/NORTH OF THE ARKANSAS
RIVER. CLOSER TO THE OKLAHOMA BORDER, LOWS SHOULD NOT FALL BELOW
LOWER 50S GIVEN THE HIGHER SURFACE MOISTURE CONTENT.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH ON TUESDAY IN
RESPONSE TO DEEPENING PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AS ANOTHER
PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. ALONG WITH THE
SOUTH WINDS, A BAND OF STRATUS WILL DEVELOP UP TO AROUND 2000 FEET
AGL, WHICH WILL EXPAND NORTHWARD DURING THE EARLY TO MID MORNING
HOURS. EVENTUALLY, THE STRATUS WILL SCATTER OUT AS IT SHIFTS TO THE
NORTH, BUT AREAS UP ALONG I-70 MAY SEE LOW CLOUDS THROUGH 19 OR 20Z,
WHICH WOULD CERTAINLY MITIGATE THE WARM-UP. HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE
LOWERED JUST A LITTLE BIT BECAUSE OF THIS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014
MAIN SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POP GRADIENT FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BROUGHT
THE GRADIENT FURTHER EAST WITH LESSER AMOUNTS ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS.
MESOSCALE MODELS ARE STARTING TO AGREE WITH GLOBAL MODELS THAT THERE
WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT, WHICH IS NOT FAVORABLE
FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS. THE BEST FRONTOGENESIS
WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS INTO NEBRASKA. HAVE THE HIGHEST
POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES. AGAIN, TO THE SOUTHWEST, THINK CHANCE
OF MORE SIGNIFICANT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS DWINDLING. SEVERE WEATHER
IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO MARGINAL MUCAPE AND PARTICULARLY BULK SHEAR.
BEYOND WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY HO-HUM AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL FAVOR
TEMPERATURES 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. WE MAY SEE A MODERATE STRENGTH
FRONT IN ABOUT A WEEK FROM NOW WITH ASSOCIATED COOLER TEMPERATURES.
OTHERWISE WARMTH AND A PRECIPITATION-FREE FORECAST WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE LONG TERM DOMAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014
YOU CAN EXPECT VFR CONDITION THROUGH ABOUT 10Z THIS MORNING. THEN,
A SWATCH OF MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO WESTERN KANSAS AND DENSE FOG
IS LIKELY AT KGCK AND KDDC. THE DENSE FOG, WTIH VSBYS DOWN 1/4SM
OR LOWER AND CIGS OVC002, WILL PERSIST FROM 10Z THROUGH 16Z. AFTER
THAT, EXPECT SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 13KT TO 16KTS, AND SCATTERED
CLOUDS AROUND 030.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 56 76 55 75 / 10 50 50 10
GCK 56 76 51 76 / 10 40 40 10
EHA 54 73 51 76 / 10 20 20 10
LBL 55 76 53 76 / 10 30 30 10
HYS 57 76 54 74 / 10 60 70 10
P28 57 77 57 77 / 10 60 60 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...SUGDEN
AVIATION...BURKE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
1227 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE TO THE
SOUTHEAST TODAY AND WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND
TONIGHT....BRINGING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN TO THE AREA. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE DRIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE FOR MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
1230PM UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATE POP FORECAST AGAIN AS RAIN IS ARRIVING IN SOUTHWEST
MAINE AND MUCH OF NEW HAMPSHIRE. EXPECT THIS AREA OF RAIN TO FILL
IN MORE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
9AM UPDATE...
HAVE ALTERED POP TO BETTER REFLECT TIMING OF PRECIPITATION AS IT
ARRIVES PRIMARILY THIS AFTERNOON. HRRR MODEL SEEMS TO BE HANDLING
THIS WELL. LONG STRETCH OF MOISTURE ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY IS SEEN TO BE EXTENDING ALL THE WAY FROM A TROPICAL LOW IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO UP THROUGH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND INTO OUR
REGION. THE STAGE IS BEING SET FOR A BIG PRECIPITATION EVENT.
COASTAL AREAS WILL LIKELY GET THE HEAVIER RAIN FIRST THIS EVENING
AS RAIN WRAPS IN FROM THE OCEAN AROUND A SURFACE LOW. HAVE MADE
SOME MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO QPF FORECAST BUT THIS DID NOT RESULT
IN SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
6AM UPDATE...
HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR THIS MORNING AS A FEW OF THE RAIN SHOWERS
ARE FINALLY MAKING IT THROUGH TO THE SURFACE. NOT EXPECTING
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION UNTIL LATER.
ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
LOW CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN NEW YORK WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARDS
THROUGH THE DAY... WITH THE SHOWERS CURRENTLY IN NY SPREADING
EASTWARDS ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD STEADY
IN THE 50S... THE CLASSIC COLD AIR DAMMING SIGNATURE IS EVIDENT IN
THE ISOBARS... SO EXPECT LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE COASTAL PLAIN... RESULTING IN COASTAL FRONT FORMATION. WARM
AIR ADVECTION FROM THE DEVELOPING CYCLONE WILL RESULT IN LIGHT
RAIN BY AFTERNOON... WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ALONG THE COASTAL
FRONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY/...
THE LOW WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND AND MOVE
NORTHEASTWARDS OVER THE BENCHMARK INTO THE GULF OF MAINE DURING
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. STEADY LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY AND NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INTENSIFY ALONG THE
COAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW DEEPENS. THE STRONGEST
DYNAMICS MOVE IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT SETTING UP FOR HEAVY RAIN.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOCUS IN THE EXTENDED IS IN THE EARLY PART...AS LOW PRESSURE FEEDS
MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT SURFACE AND UPPER LOW WILL
STACK AND DEEPEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS IS PROGGED
TO SEND A SIGNIFICANT SLUG OF PRECIPITATION INTO PARTS OF WESTERN
MAINE AND ADJACENT NEW HAMPSHIRE. OPERATIONAL MODELS...INCLUDING
THE ECMWF AND GFS...ARE FORECASTING 2 TO 4 INCHES TO FALL IN THE
SPAN FROM 00Z THU THROUGH 00Z FRI. WITH EASTERLY FLOW UPSLOPING
INTO THE MOUNTAINS AND COARSE MODEL RESOLUTION IT IS REASONABLE
TO ASSUME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
AT THE MOMENT THERE ARE A LOT OF FAVORABLE PARAMETERS FOR A HEAVY
RAINFALL EVENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE 21/00Z GEFS
FORECAST A -4 STANDARD DEVIATION 850 MB U WIND ANOMALY. SUCH A
SEASONABLY STRONG EASTERLY JET IS A STRONG SIGNAL FOR HEAVY
QPF...ESPECIALLY FOR THE EASTERN SLOPES. IN ADDITION...-3 STANDARD
DEVIATION 250 MB U WIND ANOMALIES SIGNAL THAT SLOW FORWARD
MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY. THIS IS NOTABLE CONSIDERING THE
OPERATION GFS IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE WHEN COMPARED TO THE 21/00Z
ECMWF. SREF MEAN QPF AT KPWM IS JUST ABOVE 3"...WITH A CLUSTER OF
MEMBERS NEAR 4". ECMWF ENSEMBLES ALSO SHOW NEARLY HALF OF THE 51
MEMBERS AT OR ABOVE 5" TOTAL QPF THRU THURSDAY. THAT BEING
SAID...SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST SOME DRY SLOT ISSUES WRAPPING
AROUND THE SYSTEM WHICH COULD SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT PRECIPITATION.
GIVEN THAT THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS STILL MORE THAN 48 HOURS
OUT...WOULD LIKE ANOTHER SUITE OF GUIDANCE BEFORE MAKING ANY
HEADLINE DECISIONS. WILL ALLOW THE DAY SHIFT TO REVIEW LATEST
GUIDANCE IN THIS CASE.
EVENTUALLY LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS OFF TOWARDS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. WEATHER WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED THOUGH...AS NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH RACES SE ACROSS CANADA AND DRIVES A COLD
FRONT THRU NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. THE UPPER LOW CROSSING THE AREA
WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS...AS ECMWF IS COOLER THAN THE
GFS...AND ONLY A DEGREE OR SO FROM BEING SNOW ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN TAKE CONTROL FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM... VFR CEILINGS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE MORNING...
BEFORE CEILINGS DESCEND ALONG THE COAST AS RAIN MOVES IN TONIGHT.
BY TONIGHT... IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST... WHILE
LEB AND HIE MAY REMAIN MVFR. WEDNESDAY WILL SEE ALL LOCATIONS
REMAIN IN IFR. LLWS WILL BE A CONCERN FOR PWM...RKD... AND PSM.
LONG TERM...IFR CONDITIONS PROBABLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THRU THURSDAY
IN RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES. COASTAL TERMINALS WILL SEE GUSTY NE
WINDS AT OR ABOVE 25 KTS AT TIMES. KHIE WILL ALSO SEE DOWNSLOPING
WINDS THAT COULD BE GUSTY AT TIMES FROM THE E. MVFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY LINGER THRU THE WEEKEND...WITH SCT SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...
WINDS/SEAS WILL BE CALM FOR TUESDAY..BEFORE BUILDING AHEAD OF THE
STORM TUESDAY NIGHT. SUSTAINED GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS FOR WEDNESDAY...WITH GUSTS TO GALE IN THE BAYS. SEAS WILL
BUILD TO 10 TO 12 FT IN PROLONGED NORTHEASTERLY FLOW.
LONG TERM...GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. SCA CONDITIONS WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY...BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL OF THE WATERS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY MID TO LATE WEEK.
MOST SMALL RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY HAVE SHARP RISES AS
WELL. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
MAINE AND THE NORTHEAST FACING HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN...MOSTLY 2-3 INCHES
QPF WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS APPROACHING 5 INCHES.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICALLY LOW TIDES WILL PREVENT WIDESPREAD COASTAL FLOODING
PROBLEMS... HOWEVER PROLONGED NORTHEASTERLY FLOW MAY RESULT IN
AROUND A 1 FT SURGE. COMBINED WITH 10FT WAVES THIS MAY CAUSE BEACH
EROSION AND SPLASHOVER... ESPECIALLY IN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND YORK
COUNTY MAINE.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM UPDATE... KIMBLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
912 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE TO THE
SOUTHEAST TODAY AND WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND
TONIGHT....BRINGING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN TO THE AREA. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE DRIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE FOR MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
9AM UPDATE...
HAVE ALTERED POP TO BETTER REFLECT TIMING OF PRECIPITATION AS IT
ARRIVES PRIMARILY THIS AFTERNOON. HRRR MODEL SEEMS TO BE HANDLING
THIS WELL. LONG STRETCH OF MOISTURE ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY IS SEEN TO BE EXTENDING ALL THE WAY FROM A TROPICAL LOW IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO UP THROUGH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND INTO OUR
REGION. THE STAGE IS BEING SET FOR A BIG PRECIPITATION EVENT.
COASTAL AREAS WILL LIKELY GET THE HEAVIER RAIN FIRST THIS EVENING
AS RAIN WRAPS IN FROM THE OCEAN AROUND A SURFACE LOW. HAVE MADE
SOME MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO QPF FORECAST BUT THIS DID NOT RESULT
IN SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
6AM UPDATE...
HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR THIS MORNING AS A FEW OF THE RAIN SHOWERS
ARE FINALLY MAKING IT THROUGH TO THE SURFACE. NOT EXPECTING
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION UNTIL LATER.
ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
LOW CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN NEW YORK WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARDS
THROUGH THE DAY... WITH THE SHOWERS CURRENTLY IN NY SPREADING
EASTWARDS ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD STEADY
IN THE 50S... THE CLASSIC COLD AIR DAMMING SIGNATURE IS EVIDENT IN
THE ISOBARS... SO EXPECT LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE COASTAL PLAIN... RESULTING IN COASTAL FRONT FORMATION. WARM
AIR ADVECTION FROM THE DEVELOPING CYCLONE WILL RESULT IN LIGHT
RAIN BY AFTERNOON... WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ALONG THE COASTAL
FRONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY/...
THE LOW WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND AND MOVE
NORTHEASTWARDS OVER THE BENCHMARK INTO THE GULF OF MAINE DURING
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. STEADY LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY AND NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INTENSIFY ALONG THE
COAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW DEEPENS. THE STRONGEST
DYNAMICS MOVE IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT SETTING UP FOR HEAVY RAIN.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOCUS IN THE EXTENDED IS IN THE EARLY PART...AS LOW PRESSURE FEEDS
MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT SURFACE AND UPPER LOW WILL
STACK AND DEEPEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS IS PROGGED
TO SEND A SIGNIFICANT SLUG OF PRECIPITATION INTO PARTS OF WESTERN
MAINE AND ADJACENT NEW HAMPSHIRE. OPERATIONAL MODELS...INCLUDING
THE ECMWF AND GFS...ARE FORECASTING 2 TO 4 INCHES TO FALL IN THE
SPAN FROM 00Z THU THROUGH 00Z FRI. WITH EASTERLY FLOW UPSLOPING
INTO THE MOUNTAINS AND COARSE MODEL RESOLUTION IT IS REASONABLE
TO ASSUME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
AT THE MOMENT THERE ARE A LOT OF FAVORABLE PARAMETERS FOR A HEAVY
RAINFALL EVENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE 21/00Z GEFS
FORECAST A -4 STANDARD DEVIATION 850 MB U WIND ANOMALY. SUCH A
SEASONABLY STRONG EASTERLY JET IS A STRONG SIGNAL FOR HEAVY
QPF...ESPECIALLY FOR THE EASTERN SLOPES. IN ADDITION...-3 STANDARD
DEVIATION 250 MB U WIND ANOMALIES SIGNAL THAT SLOW FORWARD
MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY. THIS IS NOTABLE CONSIDERING THE
OPERATION GFS IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE WHEN COMPARED TO THE 21/00Z
ECMWF. SREF MEAN QPF AT KPWM IS JUST ABOVE 3"...WITH A CLUSTER OF
MEMBERS NEAR 4". ECMWF ENSEMBLES ALSO SHOW NEARLY HALF OF THE 51
MEMBERS AT OR ABOVE 5" TOTAL QPF THRU THURSDAY. THAT BEING
SAID...SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST SOME DRY SLOT ISSUES WRAPPING
AROUND THE SYSTEM WHICH COULD SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT PRECIPITATION.
GIVEN THAT THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS STILL MORE THAN 48 HOURS
OUT...WOULD LIKE ANOTHER SUITE OF GUIDANCE BEFORE MAKING ANY
HEADLINE DECISIONS. WILL ALLOW THE DAY SHIFT TO REVIEW LATEST
GUIDANCE IN THIS CASE.
EVENTUALLY LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS OFF TOWARDS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. WEATHER WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED THOUGH...AS NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH RACES SE ACROSS CANADA AND DRIVES A COLD
FRONT THRU NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. THE UPPER LOW CROSSING THE AREA
WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS...AS ECMWF IS COOLER THAN THE
GFS...AND ONLY A DEGREE OR SO FROM BEING SNOW ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN TAKE CONTROL FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM... VFR CEILINGS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE MORNING...
BEFORE CEILINGS DESCEND ALONG THE COAST AS RAIN MOVES IN TONIGHT.
BY TONIGHT... IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST... WHILE
LEB AND HIE MAY REMAIN MVFR. WEDNESDAY WILL SEE ALL LOCATIONS
REMAIN IN IFR. LLWS WILL BE A CONCERN FOR PWM...RKD... AND PSM.
LONG TERM...IFR CONDITIONS PROBABLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THRU THURSDAY
IN RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES. COASTAL TERMINALS WILL SEE GUSTY NE
WINDS AT OR ABOVE 25 KTS AT TIMES. KHIE WILL ALSO SEE DOWNSLOPING
WINDS THAT COULD BE GUSTY AT TIMES FROM THE E. MVFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY LINGER THRU THE WEEKEND...WITH SCT SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...
WINDS/SEAS WILL BE CALM FOR TUESDAY..BEFORE BUILDING AHEAD OF THE
STORM TUESDAY NIGHT. SUSTAINED GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS FOR WEDNESDAY...WITH GUSTS TO GALE IN THE BAYS. SEAS WILL
BUILD TO 10 TO 12 FT IN PROLONGED NORTHEASTERLY FLOW.
LONG TERM...GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. SCA CONDITIONS WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY...BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL OF THE WATERS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY MID TO LATE WEEK.
MOST SMALL RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY HAVE SHARP RISES AS
WELL. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
MAINE AND THE NORTHEAST FACING HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN...MOSTLY 2-3 INCHES
QPF WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS APPROACHING 5 INCHES.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICALLY LOW TIDES WILL PREVENT WIDESPREAD COASTAL FLOODING
PROBLEMS... HOWEVER PROLONGED NORTHEASTERLY FLOW MAY RESULT IN
AROUND A 1 FT SURGE. COMBINED WITH 10FT WAVES THIS MAY CAUSE BEACH
EROSION AND SPLASHOVER... ESPECIALLY IN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND YORK
COUNTY MAINE.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM UPDATE... KIMBLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
157 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...LOCATING
OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST FOR MUCH OF THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED WELL OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING
ALLOWING FOR A RELAXING PRES GRAD ALONG THE COAST AND INLAND WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS 10 KT OR LESS. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST TONIGHT...WITH A SFC COLD FRONT
REACHING THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS AROUND 12Z TUE.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH HAS BEEN
PROVIDING WEAK LIFT SUPPORTING A THIN BAND OF ISOLD SHOWERS ON
RADAR OVER THE WESTERN CWA...HOWEVER DUE TO THE DRY AIR IN PLACE
IN THE LOWER LEVELS MOST OF THE RADAR ARE RESULTING IN VIRGA. BUFR
SOUNDINGS SHOW OVERALL DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE TONIGHT (PW`S AOB
0.75")...SO IT WILL BE HARD TO GET MUCH OF PCPN TO REACH THE
GROUND. THE HRRR TIES TO DEVELOP A THIN BAND OF SHOWERS EAST OF
I-95 AROUND 06Z...BUT THIS APPEARS TO BE OVERDONE. THAT SAID
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW BRIEF SPRINKLES OVERNIGHT. OVERALL DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU TONIGHT WITH SOME INCREASING CLOUD
COVER. THE CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT SW FLOW COULD KEEP SOME AREAS
FROM REACHING FORECAST LOWS KEEPING CONDITIONS MILDER. LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER WEST TO MID 50S AT THE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FLOW AMPLIFIES DURING THE SHORT TERM AS A BLOCKING PATTERN DEVELOPS
OVER ERN CANADA. ADDITIONAL ENERGY DIVES SOUTH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES/OH VALLEY TUES THANKS TO A ~100 KT JET STREAK DIVING SWD
FROM CANADA. AS A RESULT...UPPER LOW PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE NE STATES LATE TUESDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL
PROGRESS SLOWLY EWD TUES NIGHT INTO WED...LOCATING OFF THE
DELMARVA COAST LATE WED. WITH THE UPR LOW PIVOTING ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA TUE/TUE NIGHT...WILL SEE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
DEVELOP ESPECIALLY NORTH/NE WHERE BEST UPWARD MOTION IS
ANTICIPATED. HAVE CHANCE (POPS 25-40%) ALONG AND NE OF A LINE FROM
LKU-OFP-MFV ON TUE...THEN BEST CHANCE (30-50%) MAINLY ALONG THE
VA COAST AND ONTO THE EASTERN SHORE TUE NIGHT. ELSEWHERE...WILL
CARRY NO HIGHER THEN 20% POPS. HIGHS TUE IN THE UPPER 60S NW TO
MID 70S SE. LOWS TUE NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. MOSTLY
CLOUDY NORTH TO PARTLY CLOUDY SOUTH DURING THIE TIME.
DEEP UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST AND OFFSHORE WED.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FAIRLY DRY ALOFT OVER INLAND SECTIONS AS THE
TROUGH/SFC REFLECTION SWING OFFSHORE. WILL THEREFORE KEEP CHC POPS
LIMITED TO AREAS ALONG AND NE OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR WED...WITH
EMPHASIS ON THE NORTHERN NECK AND EASTERN SHORE (30-50% POPS).
COULD END UP BEING DRY OVER FAR SW ZONES. COOLER WED WITH HIGHS
ONLY 60-65.
THE CLOSED LOW MOVES FARTHER NE WED NIGHT INTO THU...LOCATING OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY 00Z FRIDAY. ANY LEFTOVER SHOWER CHANCES
BY THEN WILL BE LIMITED TO THE EASTERN SHORE (20%). DECREASING
CLOUDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS INTERIOR VA. LOWS WED NIGHT IN THE
LOW 40S TO LOW 50S. COOL AGAIN THU WITH HIGHS 60-65.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TO THE NE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS
UPPER RIDGING EXPANDS EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL US. A WEAK TROUGH
CLIPS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY MOVES OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE ERN US EARLY
NEXT WEEK. OVERALL...DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE
MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE MID 60S
TO AROUND 70 FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND TREND UPWARD INTO THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S SUNDAY...AND POTENTIALLY 70-75 BY MONDAY. LOWS SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 40S NW...TO THE LOW/MID 50S FOR SE COASTAL
LOCATIONS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY INTO THIS EVENG OVR THE TAF
SITES...WITH PERIODS OF MID LVL CLOUDINESS...AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
MOVES ACRS THE AREA. LATER TNGT THRU THU...LO PRES WILL INTENSIFY
OFF THE NEW JERSEY AND NEW ENGLAND CSTS. THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR
SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS...ESPLY OVR NRN AND ERN PORTIONS LATE TNGT
INTO WED NGT. MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER INTO EARLY THU AT SBY. THE LO
PRES SYSTEM WILL MOVE FARTHER AWAY TO THE NE AND HI PRES BLDS IN
FM THE NNW THU NGT INTO SUN.
&&
.MARINE...
10 PM UPDATE...WINDS AND SEAS HAVE INCREASED WELL OFFSHORE (OFF
THE MD COAST) ACCORDING TO BUOY 09. SEAS ARE JUST ABOUT 5 FT (4.9
FT LAST TWO HOURS). WINDS AND SEAS ARE MUCH LESS TOWARD THE COAST.
INCLUDED A STRIP OF 5 FT SEAS (THROUGH 06Z) IN THE ZONES N OF
PARRAMORE ISLAND BUT HOLDING OFF ON SCA FOR NOW.
HI RES MODELS ARE OVERDOING THE WINDS OVER THE BAY. AS AIR
TEMPERATURES COOL...MIXING WILL INCREASE AND WINDS MAY INCREASE
BUT EXPECT THEM TO STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE TONIGHT...ALLOWING THE WIND
TO REMAIN S/SW. EXPECT SUB-SCA CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WITH WIND
SPEEDS AVERAGING UP TO 15-20 KT ACRS NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS...AND
GENERALLY 10-15 KT ELSEWHERE. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS
THE COAST LATE TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING...FOLLOWED BY EVENTUAL SCA
CONDITIONS LATER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING AS SFC LOW PRESSURE
THEN DEEPENS OFF THE COAST. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO STALL
OFFSHORE THURSDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BRINGING A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS. WITH FLOW BEING OFFSHORE FROM THE
NW...SEAS WOULD TEND TO STAY CAPPED AT 5-6 FT AND TIDAL FLOODING
IS NOT EXPECTED. N/NW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT
WEEKEND WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING TO 10-15KT AND SEAS SUBSIDING.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM/JAO
SHORT TERM...JDM/SAM
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...AJZ/LSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
752 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER RIDGE FROM THE THE
SRN MS VALLEY THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES AND AN UPSTREAM TROUGH
FROM SASK INTO THE WRN PLAINS. AT THE SFC...SRLY FLOW WAS INCREASING
THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY WRN UPPER MI AS THE SFC RIDGE SHIFTS OFF
TO THE EAST INTO LOWER MI. VIS LOOP SHOWED SOME PATCHY MID CLOUDS
STREAMING INTO SW UPPER MI WITH CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REST OF THE
CWA.
TONIGHT AND WED...MDLS WERE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT BRINGING THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH INTO TO WRN MN BY 12Z/THU AND WRN UPPER MI BY 00Z/FRI.
EVEN THROUGH THERE MAY SEVERAL SEPARATE SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE
TROUGH...THE MODELS HAVE ALSO TRENDED TOWARD BRINGING ONE OF THE
STRONGER SHRTWVS TOWARD THE CWA. THE MODERATE 700-300MB QVECTOR CONV
ALONG WITH SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE INFLOW (PWAT REACHES AOA 1.0 INCH OR
220 PCT OF NORMAL)WILL BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LIKELY POPS THROUGH THE
AREA BY THU AFTERNOON. THE PCPN MAY BE DELAYED AT THE ONSET AS THE
SFC-800 MB DRY LAYER PERSISTS UNTIL THE STRONGER DYNAMICS ARRIVE
INTO W UPPER MI LATE TONIGHT AND CENTRL UPPER MI BY AROUND 18Z.
RELATIVELY LIGHT QPF OF 0.2 INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED GIVEN THE
MODEST DYNAMICS AND PROGRESSIVE PATTERN.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014
GIVEN THE SIGNIFICANT LOSS OF THE SATELLITE INGEST INTO THE
NUMERICAL MODELS /WITH NESDIS SATELLITE COMMS ISSUES CAUSING MISSING
OR OLD IMAGES ON WEB PAGES/...UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FCST SOLUTIONS
MAY BE HIGHER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS PERIOD. THIS HAS BEEN THE CASE
SINCE THE 22/00Z RUNS. AT THIS TIME...THERE IS NO DETAILS ON WHEN
THE ISSUE WILL BE FIXED.
EXPECT LINGERING SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT THE E PROGRESSION OF
ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN WILL BE LIMITED. A SFC RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER E
LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH LAKE HURON THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. WITH LIGHT
S WINDS AND 850MB TEMPS RISING TO 8-11C...HIGHS ON FRIDAY COULD BE
IN THE LOW 60S OVER THE W HALF OF THE CWA.
THE NEXT SFC LOW OVER OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL CROSS MANITOBA ON FRIDAY...AND N-CENTRAL ONTARIO FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL NEAR THE NE PORTIONS
OF THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT.
AS THE SFC HIGH WILL QUICKLY PUSH IN FROM THE N PLAINS AND MID MS
VALLEY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...AS THE LOW EXITS INTO ONTARIO AND THE
NEW ENGLAND STATES. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. THE
MAIN WEATHER FEATURE WILL BE INCREASING WNW WINDS ON SATURDAY...WITH
GUSTS NEARING 25-35MPH /STRONGEST NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AND ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN/. INCREASED WINDS A BIT EARLIER THAN OUR PREVIOUS
FCST FOR SATURDAY.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN AT THE SFC. FCST MODELS ARE STILL CONSISTENT WITH
AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM S CENTRAL CANADA
THROUGH THE S PLAINS STATES AT 12Z MONDAY TO CROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BEFORE EXITING INTO ONTARIO.
WHETHER OR NOT A SFC TROUGH LINGERS BEHIND THE LOW INTO WEDNESDAY IS
STILL IN QUESTION...LEADING TO A LOW CONFIDENCE FCST STILL FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON ON. NEXT WEDNESDAY IS A COMPLETE TOSS UP...WITH
850MB TEMPS OFF THE 12Z RUNS RANGING FROM -5C TO 3C. WILL ADD A
SMALL MENTION OF SNOW SHOWERS IN N-NW FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. THERE
MAY NOT BE ENOUGH PRECIP IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT...AS A SECONDARY
LOW WRAPS NEARS FROM THE MID MS VALLEY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 747 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014
A WEAKENING DISTURBANCE AND FRONT WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHRA
INTO UPPER MI TONIGHT AND THU. INITIALLY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
THE RULE AT KIWD/KCMX...BUT AS THE BAND OF MOISTURE AND SHRA
ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT CONTINUES TO SHIFT E...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
FALL TO MVFR THU MORNING/EARLY AFTN...BEGINNING FIRST AT KIWD. AT
KSAW...COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER AND UPSLOPE SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY LEAD TO
LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SOME FOG LATER TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING.
ATTM...EXPECT LOW MVFR CONDITIONS...BUT IFR CIGS OR EVEN LIFR ARE
POSSIBLE. THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK OUT TO VFR LATER THU MORNING
BEFORE MVFR CIGS RETURN LATE IN THE DAY AS WEAKENING FRONT AND SHRA
APPROACH. ON ANOTHER NOTE...LOW LEVEL JET NOSING INTO FAR WESTERN
UPPER MICHIGAN WILL LEAD TO LLWS TONIGHT AT KIWD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 410 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014
SRLY WINDS WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE DEPARTS THE AREA AND A TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WIND GUSTS
DURING THIS TIME SHOULD STAY AOB 20KTS. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ON FRIDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT SWEEPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
ON FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO
30KTS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION FOR SUNDAY AND DIMINISH WINDS BELOW 20KTS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
353 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM
THE SRN PLAINS THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO NW ONTARIO BETWEEN
TROUGHS OVER THE NW CONUS AND THE ERN GREAT LAKES. AT THE SFC...A
RIDGE EXTENDED FROM JAMES BAY THROUGH NRN ONTARIO TO LAKE SUPERIOR
RESULTING IN NE WINDS INTO UPPER MI. DAYTIME HEATING HAS FINALLY
HELPED DISSIPATE MOST OF THE REMAINING CLOUDS OVER WRN UPPER MI.
HOWEVER...SOME LAKE MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE NEAR THE SHORE
SUPPORTED SOME LINGERING CLOUDS FROM BIG BAY TO MUNISING.
TONIGHT...UNDER CLEAR SKIES...FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH PWAT VALUES DROPPING TO NEAR 0.15
INCH(25 PCT OF NORMAL) WHICH SHOULD DROP MIN TEMPS TOWARD THE LOWER
END OF GUIDANCE. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 20 TO 25 RANGE INLAND AND FROM
THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S CLOSER TO THE GREAT LAKES. WITH THE HIGH
SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST LATE...TEMPS MAY SLOWLY CLIMB LATE OVER THE
FAR WEST AS SRLY WINDS(BNDRY LAYER 15-20 KT) PRODUCE SOME MIXING.
SOME GROUND FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE MAINLY NEAR RIVER VALLEYS/LAKES AND
ESPECIALLY OVER THE S WHERE THE LIGHT SRLY FLOW OFF LAKE MI BRINGS IN
SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
WED...EVEN WITH A STRONG INVERSION...ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND 925 MB
TEMPS NEAR 6C...SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S EAST AND THE LOWER
50S WEST.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014
AT 00Z THURSDAY THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE STUCK UNDER A RIDGE
IN BETWEEN THE STRONG CUT OFF LOW SWINGING N OFF THE ATLANTIC
COAST...AND A TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE N PLAINS AND MANITOBA.
THE CANADIAN/N PLAINS TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS ONTARIO AND LAKE
SUPERIOR ON THURSDAY. JUST HOW THE TROUGH INTERACTS WITH THE CUT OFF
LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND STATES IS STILL IN QUESTION. THE ECMWF IS
QUICKER TO SCOOT THE TROUGH S OF THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY
MORNING...WHILE THE GFS STAYS WITH MORE OF A STEADY ELONGATED TROUGH
SLIDING W-E. THEY ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE IDEA OF RAIN AVERAGING
0.2IN OVER THE W HALF OF UPPER MI LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BEFORE DRYING UP AND EXITING THE AREA.
AFTER ZONAL FLOW FRIDAY...NW FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE CWA FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE 21/00Z ECMWF WAS A BIT FARTHER S AND QUICKER WITH THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE SWINGING IN FROM MANITOBA AND W ONTARIO...INDICATING
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS GLANCING N AREAS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE 12Z GFS AND
ECMWF RUNS ARE A BIT MORE IN LINE. BRISK NW FLOW WILL TAKE HOLD
SATURDAY /40-45KT 850MB LLJ/...WITH 850MB TEMPS FALLING FROM AROUND
6-8C AT DAYBREAK TO 0-5C BY THE END OF THE DAY /COOLEST OFF THE
ECMWF/.
THE NEXT SFC RIDGE WILL BE OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY...IN BETWEEN THE
EXITING LOW OVER HUDSON BAY AND QUEBEC...AND A NEARING LOW
DEVELOPING ACROSS S CENTRAL CANADA AND THE N PLAINS. AT THIS POINT
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHING ACROSS
WI/UPPER MI/LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE 21/00Z ECMWF
EJECTS THE SYSTEM TO THE NE QUICKLY MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY
MORNING...WHILE THE 21/06Z GFS RIDES AN ADDITIONAL LOW UP THE
TROUGH WHICH KEEPS LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY NIGHT OF NEXT WEEK. WHETHER OR NOT THE PROGRESSIVE BUT
DRAMATIC ECMWF SOLUTION PANS OUT IS STILL UNCERTAIN...AS IT WOULD
STRAND A CUT OFF LOW ACROSS THE S PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT THOUGH AT
LEAST MID WEEK. WILL CONTINUE WITH A BLENDED SOLUTION FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...UNTIL WE GET A BETTER VISION OF WHAT MAY HAPPEN
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE 12Z RUN OF THE ECMWF HAS ABANDONED THE CUT OFF
LOW SOLUTION OVER THE S PLAINS...AND LOOKS A BIT MORE LIKE THE
GFS...BUT A LOT WEAKER WITH LESS PRECIP.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014
SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST THAT ANY LINGERING MVFR CLOUDS AT KIWD WILL
DISSIPATE BY MID AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY
AIR BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS
LESS THAN 20 KTS OVER LK SUPERIOR FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. PASSAGE
OF A TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WILL LEAD TO INCREASING WNW WINDS TO 25 KTS
ON SATURDAY...STRONGEST OVER EAST HALF OF LK SUPERIOR.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
239 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES INTO THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES AND A RIDGE OVER
THE WRN PLAINS RESULTING IN NNW FLOW THROUGH THE THE WRN LAKES. AT
THE SFC...NNW WINDS PREVAILED BTWN LOW PRES OVER NRN LAKE HURON AND
HIGH PRES OVER NW ONTARIO. THE COMBINATION OF ABUNDANT SFC-800 MB
MOISTURE...CYCLONIC AND UPSLOPE NRLY FLOW AND 850 MB TEMPS AROUND
-1C (LAKE WATER TEMPS STILL NEAR 8C-9C) WAS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME
SCT LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES INTO W AND N CNTRL UPPER MI.
TONIGHT...UPSTREAM OBS MDLS SUGGEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST
AS 850 MB TEMPS FALL TO NEAR -4C...HELPING TO SUSTAIN SOME LIGHT
PCPN. AS THE NW ONTARIO HIGH BUILDS TO THE SE...VEERING WINDS TO
NNE WILL SHIFT THE REMAINING LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS MAINLY INTO N
CNTRL UPPER MI...WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW IS MAXIMIZED. EVEN THOUGH
WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS FALL BELOW 500 FT AGL...EXPECT THAT THE LAKE
OF ICE NUCLEI IN THE MOIST LAYER THAT ONLY EXTENDS TO NEAR
-5C...WILL NOT SUPPORT SNOW. CLOUDS WILL LINGER OVER MOST OF THE
AREA...KEEPING MIN READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. HOWEVER...THERE
MAY BE SOME CLEARING OVER THE EAST WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW FROM ONTARIO E
OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
TUE...THE LINGERING 2K-3K FT LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL KEEP
MOISTURE/CLOUDS TRAPPED INTO THE MORNING...ESPECIALLY DOWNSTREAM OF
MOISTENING OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. BY AFTERNOON...EXPECT ENOUGH
HEATING/MIXING AND DRY ADVECTION TO BRING DIMINISHING CLOUDS THAT
WILL PUSH TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 40S OVER THE S AND WEST WHILE LOWER
READINGS IN THE LOW 40S PREVAIL OVER THE NORTH.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014
A FAIRLY QUIET LONG TERM PERIOD IS IN STORE FOR THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD AND END OF THE WEEKEND. BETWEEN THESE TWO UPPER
RIDGES...A COUPLE SHORTWAVES WILL AFFECT OR BRUSH THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION AND BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN MAINLY ON THURSDAY.
TO START...THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE UNDER AN UPPER
RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY. ABUNDANT DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH WILL LEAD TO A SUNNY DAY ACROSS
THE AREA. HIGHS WILL DEPEND ON THE MIXING DEPTH AND MODELS ARE
CONSISTENT ON THAT ONLY BEING TO 925-900MB (NOT REACHING THE MUCH
WARMER 850MB TEMPS). THUS...WILL KEEP HIGHS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL AND
IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S (WARMEST WEST).
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WITH
BLOCKING FROM THE UPPER LOW SPINNING JUST OFF THE NEW YORK
COAST...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO MOVE AND WILL KEEP
THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONFINED TO THE WESTERN CWA FOR MUCH
OF THURSDAY. DID TREND POPS UP FAIRLY SIGNIFICANTLY (LIKELY VALUES
OVER THE FAR WEST) WITH MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON AT LEAST
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEST HALF. COULD SEE SOME REMNANTS
OF THE SHOWERS MOVING OVER THE EASTERN CWA THURSDAY EVENING AND HAVE
ADDRESSED THAT WITH POPS DIMINISHING TO SLIGHT CHANCES AS THEY WORK
EAST THURSDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL STAY ON THE LIGHT SIDE
AND GENERALLY BETWEEN A TENTH AND A QUARTER OF AN INCH OVER THE
WESTERN CWA.
AFTER THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH ON THURSDAY
NIGHT...WESTERLY FLOW AND DRY AIR WILL WORK BACK OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO DECREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST
TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY AND LIKELY THE WARMEST DAY SINCE THE 12TH
OF OCTOBER. ONCE AGAIN...MIXING DEPTH WILL BE LIMITED AND KEEP THE
AREA FROM MIXING TO THE MUCH WARMER TEMPS ABOVE THE INVERSION
BETWEEN 900-850MB...BUT WOULD STILL EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER
50S AND A FEW 60S IN SOME LOCATIONS.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST AND BRUSH THE AREA ON
SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE...A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT (ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW
SPINNING IN FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO). WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW A DRY
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH LIMITED MOISTURE
BEING THE INHIBITING FACTOR. THUS WILL STICK WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR
FORECAST. EVEN THOUGH WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND BE GUSTY
(20-25MPH) ON SATURDAY...STILL EXPECT HIGHS TO BE ABOVE NORMAL
AS THE COLDEST AIR IS DELAYED AND WON/T ARRIVE UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT.
THAT WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY COOLER...BUT STILL AT OR ABOVE
NORMAL...HIGHS FOR SUNDAY UNDER A SURFACE/UPPER RIDGE.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING ANOTHER
UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT TO AFFECT THE AREA ON MONDAY. WILL
CONTINUE TO SHOW CHANCE POPS FOR THE PASSAGE OF THESE FEATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 147 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014
EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT...THOUGH A PERIOD OF IFR CIGS
WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AT SAW DUE TO STRONGER UPSLOPE WIND
DIRECTION OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KSAW
OVERNIGHT. THE PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT
OF CMX FIRST TUE MORNING AND THEN IN THE AFTERNOON AT IWD...BUT
SHOULD LINGER AT SAW THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON BEFORE FINALLY CLEARING
BY TUE EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014
LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR NEAR WHITEFISH POINT WILL
MOVE TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT.
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BTWN THE EXITING LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE BUILDING OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO. EXPECT NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS INCREASING TO 25-30 KTS THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENING OVER
CNTRL AND EASTERN LK SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY MORNING
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES ACROSS LK SUPERIOR. WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KTS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH STRONGER
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES NORTHERN ONTARIO.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
148 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES INTO THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES AND A RIDGE OVER
THE WRN PLAINS RESULTING IN NNW FLOW THROUGH THE THE WRN LAKES. AT
THE SFC...NNW WINDS PREVAILED BTWN LOW PRES OVER NRN LAKE HURON AND
HIGH PRES OVER NW ONTARIO. THE COMBINATION OF ABUNDANT SFC-800 MB
MOISTURE...CYCLONIC AND UPSLOPE NRLY FLOW AND 850 MB TEMPS AROUND
-1C (LAKE WATER TEMPS STILL NEAR 8C-9C) WAS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME
SCT LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES INTO W AND N CNTRL UPPER MI.
TONIGHT...UPSTREAM OBS MDLS SUGGEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST
AS 850 MB TEMPS FALL TO NEAR -4C...HELPING TO SUSTAIN SOME LIGHT
PCPN. AS THE NW ONTARIO HIGH BUILDS TO THE SE...VEERING WINDS TO
NNE WILL SHIFT THE REMAINING LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS MAINLY INTO N
CNTRL UPPER MI...WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW IS MAXIMIZED. EVEN THOUGH
WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS FALL BELOW 500 FT AGL...EXPECT THAT THE LAKE
OF ICE NUCLEI IN THE MOIST LAYER THAT ONLY EXTENDS TO NEAR
-5C...WILL NOT SUPPORT SNOW. CLOUDS WILL LINGER OVER MOST OF THE
AREA...KEEPING MIN READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. HOWEVER...THERE
MAY BE SOME CLEARING OVER THE EAST WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW FROM ONTARIO E
OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
TUE...THE LINGERING 2K-3K FT LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL KEEP
MOISTURE/CLOUDS TRAPPED INTO THE MORNING...ESPECIALLY DOWNSTREAM OF
MOISTENING OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. BY AFTERNOON...EXPECT ENOUGH
HEATING/MIXING AND DRY ADVECTION TO BRING DIMINISHING CLOUDS THAT
WILL PUSH TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 40S OVER THE S AND WEST WHILE LOWER
READINGS IN THE LOW 40S PREVAIL OVER THE NORTH.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING WILL BE DRY FOR THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES...AS THE 500MB TROUGH OVERHEAD TODAY DIGS INTO THE NE
U.S. THIS WILL SET UP RIDGING AT THE SFC AND ALOFT FOR THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES...WITH SLOWLY MODIFYING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. THE MAIN
CONCERN FOR THOSE WITH SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS STILL WILL BE
MORNING LOWS TUESDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL FALL AT OR BELOW 32F FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA EXCLUDING THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA.
THURSDAY...MODELS HAVE COME IN A BIT WETTER FOR THE
THURSDAY-THURSDAY EVENING TIME PERIOD AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DIGS
ACROSS ONTARIO AND MN DURING THE DAY. WHILE THE MAIN SFC LOW WILL
STILL BE OVER W CANADA AT THAT TIME...A SFC TROUGH OVER MANITOBA AND
NW MN THURSDAY MORNING WILL NEAR THE REGION. WITH UPPER MI STUCK IN
THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IN BETWEEN THE DEEPENING LOW OFF THE NE
COAST...AND THE CANADIAN LOW. LIMITED E PROGRESS OF SHOWERS IS STILL
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH POPS WERE INCREASED SLIGHTLY FOR THE W...AND
WERE EXTENDED INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF BACK
THIS SOLUTION.
LOOK FOR THE 500MB WAVE TO PUSH E OF LAKE SUPERIOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH ANY LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS ENDING. THE W CANADIAN
SFC LOW-500MB LOW WILL SHIFT INTO NE MANITOBA OVERNIGHT...WITH WARM
AIR SURGING INTO UPPER MI. 850MB TEMPS OF 8-12C LOOK REASONABLE
FRIDAY NIGHT ON WSW WINDS...WITH SFC TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 40S.
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE OUR TRANSITION PERIOD...AS ZONAL
FLOW SLIDES IN ALOFT...AND THE SFC RIDGE EXITS TO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE FCST GUIDANCE...SHOWING UP
ON THE IDEA OF HOW MUCH COLD AIR WILL BE ABLE TO SNEAK IN FROM THE
NW. THE 20/00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF HAS 850MB TEMPS AROUND 2C AT 00Z
SUNDAY...WHILE THE 20/12Z IS AT A MUCH MORE MILD 7C. WILL KEEP WITH
A MORE BLENDED SOLUTION FOR THE FCST STILL AT THIS POINT.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL BRING ABOUT A RETURN OF THE 500MB
RIDGE...EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH ONTARIO. THIS
RIDGE WILL SLOWLY EXIT TOWARD THE NEW ENGLAND STATES ON MONDAY AS A
TROUGH SETTLES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND NEARS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF WET WEATHER LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
OF NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPS REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 147 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014
EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT...THOUGH A PERIOD OF IFR CIGS
WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AT SAW DUE TO STRONGER UPSLOPE WIND
DIRECTION OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KSAW
OVERNIGHT. THE PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT
OF CMX FIRST TUE MORNING AND THEN IN THE AFTERNOON AT IWD...BUT
SHOULD LINGER AT SAW THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON BEFORE FINALLY CLEARING
BY TUE EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014
LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR NEAR WHITEFISH POINT WILL
MOVE TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT.
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BTWN THE EXITING LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE BUILDING OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO. EXPECT NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS INCREASING TO 25-30 KTS THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENING OVER
CNTRL AND EASTERN LK SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY MORNING
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES ACROSS LK SUPERIOR. WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KTS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH STRONGER
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES NORTHERN ONTARIO.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
638 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 353 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
Late this afternoon an elongated area of showers and isolated
thunderstorms extends from the Dakotas southward into north central
Kansas and further south scattered into central Texas. This
activity is associated with an upper trough propagating through the
northern Plains along with a secondary vorticity maximum in the
southern stream moving into western Oklahoma. Short range models
such as the HRRR and local WRF seemed to be doing a good job with
the timing of the precipitation into the forecast area. Still
expecting rain to spread into the area first in northwest Missouri
later this evening, then gradually across the rest of the forecast
area after midnight.
Upper features and weak surface boundary gradually exit the area
tomorrow bringing an end to the precipitation from west to east. A
few of the model time sections try to hold on to some cloud cover
during the day tomorrow especially over northeast Missouri, however
still anticipating seeing improving conditions in the afternoon
particularly over eastern Kansas and western Missouri.
Air mass behind the surface boundary moving through on Thursday not
significantly different than air mass currently over region so if
clouds can clear would still expect temperatures to rebound to above
seasonal values tomorrow. Significant warming of the lower and
middle layers of the atmosphere is forecast for Thursday night and
Friday. 850hPa temperatures approach +18C by 00Z Saturday in eastern
Kansas and western Missouri and as a result surface temperatures
should warm into the middle and upper 70s on Friday.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 353 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
A very pleasant weekend in store as a broad upper level ridge builds
into the country`s mid-section. This puts the CWA under northwest
flow aloft and surface winds shifting around from more northerly at
the start of the weekend to southeasterly by Sunday. With 850mb
temperatures progged to be in the mid teens, and thermal ridge axis
across the CWA Saturday afternoon, wouldn`t be surprised to see a
few locations reach 80 degrees by mid-afternoon. The upper level
ridge will shift eastward and over the area by Sunday, and allow for
another beautiful fall day with highs reaching the low 80s. However,
these reminiscent summerish days won`t last long given an
approaching trough that will bring another chance for rain and a few
thunderstorms. Southerly winds will help advect higher dewpoints
into the region Sunday and Monday increasing instability across the
region. With 500-1000 J/kg of CAPE forecast, cannot rule out a
rumble or two Monday afternoon ahead of the approaching trough.
Long-range models refuse to come to an agreement on the timing and
southern extent this trough will take. The EC takes a more aggressive
and slower approach by deepening the low as it moves across NM and
the TX panhandle. The GFS is less aggressive and keeps the main
trough across the Northern Plains with flow becoming more zonal by
Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 627 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
VFR conditions to prevail through the remainder of the evening hours
before line of showers/lowering ceilings move in around midnight.
Precip is anticipated to remain on the lighter side, leaving visbys
and ceilings currently projected to not drop below MVFR at all four
TAF sites. Low-level cloud deck and precip will exit by the morning
hours with decent clearing by the afternoon on Thursday. Southerly
winds will dominate, making a shift behind this line of precip from
the SW tomorrow. Winds could be gusty at times, especially with the
precip.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Mitchell
LONG TERM...PMM
AVIATION...lg
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1005 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1005 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
KUEX INDICATES THE RAIN HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA FOR
THE MOST PART. THAT SAID...SHOWER ACTIVITY PERSISTS OVER PORTIONS
OF JEWELL AND MITCHELL COUNTIES IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AT THIS
HOUR...BUT THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AS IT ALSO MOVES
EAST OF THE AREA.
BY FAR THE BIGGEST CONCERN IS THE EXPANDING FOG ACROSS THE AREA.
MULTIPLE SITES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...GENERALLY WEST OF
HIGHWAY 281...HAVE DROPPED TO AROUND 1/4SM OR LOWER. RAINFALL FROM
EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH A LIGHT SURFACE WIND AND
PLENTY OF RADIATIONAL COOLING ONCE THE CLOUDS CLEAR...SHOULD
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT AND GIVEN THIS...WENT
AHEAD WITH A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 281. IT REMAINS POSSIBLE THIS
ADVISORY WILL NEED TO BE EXPANDED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...BUT THE CURRENT ADVISORY REFLECTS THE CURRENT DEVELOPMENT
OF FOG.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CUTTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING EAST
AS WELL. A SOLID LINE/AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS
MARCHING ACROSS THE CWA...BUT THE TIME FRAME IS LIMITED FOR
PRECIPITATION AS FLOW REMAINS QUITE PROGRESSIVE...HELPING THE COLD
FRONT TO CONTINUE TO SWEEP EAST. SOME SOLUTIONS...SUCH AS THE NAM
AND HRRR...INDICATE AN AREA OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWERS TO
DEVELOP THIS EVENING BEHIND THE CURRENT BAND/BANDS OF RAIN. THIS
WILL DELAY THE EXIT OF PRECIPITATION IN OUR EAST/SOUTHEAST A
BIT...AND COULD LINGER UNTIL ABOUT MIDNIGHT OR SO IN OUR EAST
SOUTHEAST.
A BIG CONCERN IS FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT. BOTH THE SREF AND RAP
INDICATE THAT AT LEAST SOME OF THE CWA IS IN FOR SOME FOG...AS THE
SKY CLEARS AND WIND BECOMES LIGHT BEHIND THE WAVE/COLD FRONT. WITH
MOST AREAS GETTING A DECENT SHOT OF RAIN TODAY...I HAVE DECIDED TO
HIT THE FOG WORDING QUITE A BIT HARDER...WITH AREAS OF FOG AND
PATCHY DENSE FOG WITH VISIBILITY OF HALF MILE OR LESS. WE WILL NEED
TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE HRRR VISIBILITY LATER THIS EVENING. IF THIS
NUMERICAL MODEL HITS THE FOG FAIRLY HARD AS WELL...WE MAY NEED A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY TONIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING.
BEHIND THE TROUGH/COLD FRONT THURSDAY...AIR BEHIND THE FRONT IS
MILD...BUT I DID LOWER THEM A BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...BASED
ON BCCONSRAW...WHICH I TEND TO LIKE THE DAY AFTER A COLD FRONT
PASSAGE.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
ALOFT: THE MEAN RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE CNTRL USA THRU SUN...
UNTIL THE TROF OVER THE E PAC MOVES ONSHORE. THIS TROF WILL MOVE
THRU HERE MON AND WILL BE THE NEXT POTENTIAL WX MAKER. LOW-AMPLITUDE
WNW FLOW ARRIVE IN ITS WAKE TUE-WED.
SURFACE: LOW PRES WILL BE HEADING E ACROSS CANADA. ITS ASSOCIATED
COOL FRONT WILL SLIP THRU HERE FRI NIGHT WITH NRN PLAINS HIGH PRES
BUILDING IN SAT. MEANWHILE THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING ONSHORE IN
THE W. A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FCST ISSUE HERE /SEE BELOW/. THE COOL FRONT
WILL MOVE THRU SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING WITH COOL HIGH PRES TO
FOLLOW TUE-WED.
THE DAILY DETAILS...
FRI: WARM SECTOR. WONDERFULLY WARM WITHIN THE THERMAL RIDGE. THE
WARMEST DAY OF THIS FCST. NO RECORDS THREATENED...BUT AFTERNOON
TEMPS WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF THEM.
SAT: NOT AS WARM...BUT STILL A SOLID 10F WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR LATE
OCT. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN TEMPS. GEM/EC/GFS/NAM 2M TEMPS ARE
SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER THAN MEX MOS /BY 10F/. AND WITH NO ESSENTIALLY
NO CLOUD COVER EXPECTED PER VERTICAL CROSS SECTIONS...AM NOT SURE
WHY. SO THE DIFF WAS SPLIT INCORPORATING THE PREVIOUS FCST WITH A
BIAS CORRECTION WHICH DID NUDGE TEMPS DOWN A LITTLE. ANYWAY YOU
SLICE IT...LIGHT WINDS AND STILL VERY NICE.
SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING: WE MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO MENTION A
CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS AS THE EC/GFS ARE INDICATING A POTENTIAL
INSTABILITY BURST AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT /K-INDEX 30 AND SHOWALTER
INDEX -1/ AS HIGHER 850 MB DEWPOINTS ADVECT BACK IN FROM THE S.
FOR WHAT IT/S WORTH 06Z/12Z GFS ARE OUTPUTTING SOME DRIBBLES OF
LIGHT QPF.
SUN: WE MAY HAVE PROBLEMS WITH TEMPS. THERE COULD BE A LINGERING
BATCH OF MULTI-LAYERED CLOUD COVER. THE POCKETS OF COOLER 850 MB
TEMPS ARE THE HINT. BELIEVE WE MAY BE TOO WARM. MULTI-MODEL 2M TEMPS
SUGGEST WE MAY BE TOO WARM BY AT LEAST 5F.
SUN NIGHT: COOL FRONTAL PASSAGE AND PROBABLY DRY. SOUNDINGS SHOW A
CAP.
MON: BREEZY AND COOLER IN COLD AIR ADVECTION. POSSIBLY A POST-
FRONTAL SHWR OR TWO. TEMPS RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL.
TUE: EVEN COOLER. TEMPS PROBABLY 5F BELOW NORMAL.
ANOTHER POTENTIAL FCST SNAG TUE IS THE 00Z/12Z EC HAVE A MUCH
SHARPER/SHORTER WAVELENGTH TO THE UPPER TROF MOVING THRU. THEY
DIFFER ON LOCATION BUT THIS SUGGESTS A LOW COULD FORM ON THE FRONT S
AND E OF THE FCST AREA.
WED: DRY WITH TEMP RECOVERY TO NEAR NORMAL POSSIBLE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
KUEX INDICATES PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED EAST OF EAR AND GRI...AND
PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT EITHER TAF SITE THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS. A LOW CEILING...BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000FT AGL...WILL
LIKELY PERSIST AT GRI THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...BUT
SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THIS LOW CEILING WILL MOVE EAST OF GRI
BY 02Z...IF NOT A TOUCH SOONER AND NOTHING MORE THAN FEW TO
SCATTERED CLOUDS NEAR 15000FT AGL ARE FORECAST AT GRI AFTER 02Z.
THE LOW CEILING HAS ALREADY CLEARED EAR AND FEW TO SCATTERED
CLOUDS NEAR 15000FT AGL ARE EXPECTED AT EAR THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. VISIBILITY RESTRICTION TO AROUND 6SM WILL ALSO REMAIN
POSSIBLE AT GRI TO START THE TAF PERIOD...BUT THIS WILL BE SHORT-
LIVED AND WILL CLEAR BY 02Z IF NOT SOONER. VISIBILITY RESTRICTION
WILL NOT IMPACT EAR TO START THE TAF PERIOD. VISIBILITY
RESTRICTION WILL HOWEVER BE POSSIBLE AT BOTH TAF SITES STARTING
06Z TONIGHT. RADIATIONAL COOLING AND NEAR-ZERO DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS AT THE SURFACE COULD PROMOTE FOG DEVELOPMENT AND ONE
SET OF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS VISIBILITY RESTRICTION COULD DROP TO IFR
OR LOWER...PRIMARILY AT GRI. NOT READY TO COMPLETELY BUY INTO THE
ONE SET OF GUIDANCE SUGGESTING IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE REALIZED AND
AS A RESULT...WILL GO AHEAD WITH MVFR VISIBILITY AT BOTH TAF SITES
06-14Z...AND LET FUTURE SHIFTS CONTINUE TO EVALUATE. THE SURFACE
WIND WILL START THE TAF PERIOD LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BUT BECOME
MORE ESTABLISHED FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR NEZ039-040-046-
047-061-062-073-074-083-084.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BRYANT
SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...BRYANT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
641 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CUTTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING EAST
AS WELL. A SOLID LINE/AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS
MARCHING ACROSS THE CWA...BUT THE TIME FRAME IS LIMITED FOR
PRECIPITATION AS FLOW REMAINS QUITE PROGRESSIVE...HELPING THE COLD
FRONT TO CONTINUE TO SWEEP EAST. SOME SOLUTIONS...SUCH AS THE NAM
AND HRRR...INDICATE AN AREA OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWERS TO
DEVELOP THIS EVENING BEHIND THE CURRENT BAND/BANDS OF RAIN. THIS
WILL DELAY THE EXIT OF PRECIPITATION IN OUR EAST/SOUTHEAST A
BIT...AND COULD LINGER UNTIL ABOUT MIDNIGHT OR SO IN OUR EAST
SOUTHEAST.
A BIG CONCERN IS FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT. BOTH THE SREF AND RAP
INDICATE THAT AT LEAST SOME OF THE CWA IS IN FOR SOME FOG...AS THE
SKY CLEARS AND WIND BECOMES LIGHT BEHIND THE WAVE/COLD FRONT. WITH
MOST AREAS GETTING A DECENT SHOT OF RAIN TODAY...I HAVE DECIDED TO
HIT THE FOG WORDING QUITE A BIT HARDER...WITH AREAS OF FOG AND
PATCHY DENSE FOG WITH VISIBILITY OF HALF MILE OR LESS. WE WILL NEED
TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE HRRR VISIBILITY LATER THIS EVENING. IF THIS
NUMERICAL MODEL HITS THE FOG FAIRLY HARD AS WELL...WE MAY NEED A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY TONIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING.
BEHIND THE TROUGH/COLD FRONT THURSDAY...AIR BEHIND THE FRONT IS
MILD...BUT I DID LOWER THEM A BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...BASED
ON BCCONSRAW...WHICH I TEND TO LIKE THE DAY AFTER A COLD FRONT
PASSAGE.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
ALOFT: THE MEAN RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE CNTRL USA THRU SUN...
UNTIL THE TROF OVER THE E PAC MOVES ONSHORE. THIS TROF WILL MOVE
THRU HERE MON AND WILL BE THE NEXT POTENTIAL WX MAKER. LOW-AMPLITUDE
WNW FLOW ARRIVE IN ITS WAKE TUE-WED.
SURFACE: LOW PRES WILL BE HEADING E ACROSS CANADA. ITS ASSOCIATED
COOL FRONT WILL SLIP THRU HERE FRI NIGHT WITH NRN PLAINS HIGH PRES
BUILDING IN SAT. MEANWHILE THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING ONSHORE IN
THE W. A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FCST ISSUE HERE /SEE BELOW/. THE COOL FRONT
WILL MOVE THRU SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING WITH COOL HIGH PRES TO
FOLLOW TUE-WED.
THE DAILY DETAILS...
FRI: WARM SECTOR. WONDERFULLY WARM WITHIN THE THERMAL RIDGE. THE
WARMEST DAY OF THIS FCST. NO RECORDS THREATENED...BUT AFTERNOON
TEMPS WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF THEM.
SAT: NOT AS WARM...BUT STILL A SOLID 10F WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR LATE
OCT. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN TEMPS. GEM/EC/GFS/NAM 2M TEMPS ARE
SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER THAN MEX MOS /BY 10F/. AND WITH NO ESSENTIALLY
NO CLOUD COVER EXPECTED PER VERTICAL CROSS SECTIONS...AM NOT SURE
WHY. SO THE DIFF WAS SPLIT INCORPORATING THE PREVIOUS FCST WITH A
BIAS CORRECTION WHICH DID NUDGE TEMPS DOWN A LITTLE. ANYWAY YOU
SLICE IT...LIGHT WINDS AND STILL VERY NICE.
SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING: WE MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO MENTION A
CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS AS THE EC/GFS ARE INDICATING A POTENTIAL
INSTABILITY BURST AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT /K-INDEX 30 AND SHOWALTER
INDEX -1/ AS HIGHER 850 MB DEWPOINTS ADVECT BACK IN FROM THE S.
FOR WHAT IT/S WORTH 06Z/12Z GFS ARE OUTPUTTING SOME DRIBBLES OF
LIGHT QPF.
SUN: WE MAY HAVE PROBLEMS WITH TEMPS. THERE COULD BE A LINGERING
BATCH OF MULTI-LAYERED CLOUD COVER. THE POCKETS OF COOLER 850 MB
TEMPS ARE THE HINT. BELIEVE WE MAY BE TOO WARM. MULTI-MODEL 2M TEMPS
SUGGEST WE MAY BE TOO WARM BY AT LEAST 5F.
SUN NIGHT: COOL FRONTAL PASSAGE AND PROBABLY DRY. SOUNDINGS SHOW A
CAP.
MON: BREEZY AND COOLER IN COLD AIR ADVECTION. POSSIBLY A POST-
FRONTAL SHWR OR TWO. TEMPS RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL.
TUE: EVEN COOLER. TEMPS PROBABLY 5F BELOW NORMAL.
ANOTHER POTENTIAL FCST SNAG TUE IS THE 00Z/12Z EC HAVE A MUCH
SHARPER/SHORTER WAVELENGTH TO THE UPPER TROF MOVING THRU. THEY
DIFFER ON LOCATION BUT THIS SUGGESTS A LOW COULD FORM ON THE FRONT S
AND E OF THE FCST AREA.
WED: DRY WITH TEMP RECOVERY TO NEAR NORMAL POSSIBLE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
KUEX INDICATES PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED EAST OF EAR AND GRI...AND
PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT EITHER TAF SITE THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS. A LOW CEILING...BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000FT AGL...WILL
LIKELY PERSIST AT GRI THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...BUT
SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THIS LOW CEILING WILL MOVE EAST OF GRI
BY 02Z...IF NOT A TOUCH SOONER AND NOTHING MORE THAN FEW TO
SCATTERED CLOUDS NEAR 15000FT AGL ARE FORECAST AT GRI AFTER 02Z.
THE LOW CEILING HAS ALREADY CLEARED EAR AND FEW TO SCATTERED
CLOUDS NEAR 15000FT AGL ARE EXPECTED AT EAR THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. VISIBILITY RESTRICTION TO AROUND 6SM WILL ALSO REMAIN
POSSIBLE AT GRI TO START THE TAF PERIOD...BUT THIS WILL BE SHORT-
LIVED AND WILL CLEAR BY 02Z IF NOT SOONER. VISIBILITY RESTRICTION
WILL NOT IMPACT EAR TO START THE TAF PERIOD. VISIBILITY
RESTRICTION WILL HOWEVER BE POSSIBLE AT BOTH TAF SITES STARTING
06Z TONIGHT. RADIATIONAL COOLING AND NEAR-ZERO DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS AT THE SURFACE COULD PROMOTE FOG DEVELOPMENT AND ONE
SET OF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS VISIBILITY RESTRICTION COULD DROP TO IFR
OR LOWER...PRIMARILY AT GRI. NOT READY TO COMPLETELY BUY INTO THE
ONE SET OF GUIDANCE SUGGESTING IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE REALIZED AND
AS A RESULT...WILL GO AHEAD WITH MVFR VISIBILITY AT BOTH TAF SITES
06-14Z...AND LET FUTURE SHIFTS CONTINUE TO EVALUATE. THE SURFACE
WIND WILL START THE TAF PERIOD LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BUT BECOME
MORE ESTABLISHED FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...BRYANT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
600 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MOST AREAS THROUGH PERIOD. AREAS OF FOG
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. BEST
CHANCES EXIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL
PLAINS...INCLUDING THE PECOS VALLEY AND KROW AND EAST TO THE TEXAS
BORDER. MVFR CIGS/VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE THERE. LOCAL FOG OR FREEZING
FOG POSSIBLE NORTH CENTRAL VALLEY LOCATIONS INCLUDING KAXX...THE
EAST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS INCLUDING KCQC...AND VALLEY LOCATIONS
WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS ON THURSDAY
AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
05
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...315 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OVER NEW
MEXICO OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...BRINGING SPECTACULAR WEATHER
TO THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH A FEW NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COOLER
BY SUNDAY AND WINDS WILL TREND STRONGER AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST OF
THE STATE. COOLER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY
AS A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RACES THROUGH THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
THE LATEST RADAR SHOWS JUST A COUPLE VERY LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING
SOUTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN TO THE PLAINS. 20Z LAPS DATA
INDICATES ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT A FEW STORMS HOWEVER A
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ALOFT IS ACTING TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION BELOW
550MB. THE 18Z NAM12 AND HRRR INDICATE THE BULK OF ANY STORMS WILL
FOCUS OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS AND AROUND SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTY.
OTHERWISE...WHAT FEW CLOUDS EXIST ACROSS CENTRAL/WESTERN NM WILL
DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE EAST WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS HOLDING STRONG.
WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE BENEATH A STRENGTHENING RIDGE ALOFT WILL
FAVOR AREAS OF FOG WITHIN THE PECOS AND ESTANCIA VALLEYS...AS WELL
AS ALONG THE CAPROCK.
THURSDAY WILL FEATURE WARMING TEMPERATURES AS 700MB VALUES RISE
TO NEAR +10C. THIS IS NEAR THE 95TH PERCENTILE FOR LATE OCTOBER.
THE H5 RIDGE THEN CRESTS OVER NM AT 591DM AND DELIVERS A REALLY
SPECTACULAR FRIDAY. 700MB TEMPS PEAK OUT NEAR +12C WHICH IS +2
STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE CLIMO. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR RECORD ACROSS THE
EAST WITH LOTS OF MID 80S. ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS TO STAY
IN PLACE AND LEE TROUGHING REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK SO NOT REALLY
EXPECTING RECORDS. BY SATURDAY THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND WINDS
BEGIN INCREASING IN THE EAST. HIGHS CERTAINLY MAY NEAR 90F IN THE
AREA AROUND TUCUMCARI. ELSEWHERE...IT WILL REMAIN SUNNY AND WARM.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT FROM MODELS WHICH
INDICATES FAST ZONAL FLOW OVER NM. THIS WILL FAVOR CONTINUED WARM
TEMPS OVER THE EAST WITH KATABATIC FLOW. SOME MOUNTAIN WAVE WIND
DRIVEN CIRCULATION MAY CREATE LOCALLY STRONG WINDS ON THE EAST
SLOPES BOTH DAYS. 700MB COLD ADVECTION IN THE WEST WILL COOL HIGHS
DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES. THE DGEX AND ECMWF DO SHOW ENOUGH MID/UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTS FOR A COUPLE HIGH TERRAIN
SHOWERS.
GUYER
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WE WILL BEGIN A DRYING TREND LATE TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOOK
FOR WARMING DAYTIME HIGHS...UP AND DOWN VENTILATION RATES...AND A
DOWNTREND IN HUMIDITY VALUES WITH BREEZY WESTERLIES.
VERY SPOTTY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ALONG THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN BUT WILL DIMINISH DOWNSLOPE TOWARD THE EASTERN PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THE EARLY EVENING. VERY LITTLE WETTING
RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM SPOTTY STORMS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND WILL SHIFT EASTWARD BY FRIDAY
BRINGING US WARMER DAYTIME HIGHS 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...
FOLLOWING A DOWNTREND IN HUMIDITY VALUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
VENTILATION WILL BE POOR ON FRIDAY BUT RATES LOOK TO IMPROVE OVER
THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS EAST. HAINES VALUES WILL
ALSO TREND UPWARD...WITH 5S EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN.
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY AND MONDAY ALONG AND
EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN BECAUSE OF AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES. COULD SEE MARGINALLY
CRITICAL WIND SPEEDS WEST CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY CENTRAL HIGHLANDS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOON...HUMIDITIES LOOK TO STAY A LITTLE ABOVE
CRITICAL CRITERIA AT THIS TIME. A COOLING TREND OF HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH THE STATE.
MODELS DIFFER LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY ABOUT WETTING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. GFS IS DRIER WITH ZONAL FLOW OVER THE STATE WHILE ECMWF IS
BULLISH ON PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST AS A REMAINING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXITS THE STATE.
32/43
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
1130 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...COOL NORTHERLY FLOW AND PERIODIC RAIN SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY OVER THE GENESEE VALLEY...FINGER LAKES AND EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGIONS. ANOTHER FASTER MOVING SYSTEM WILL THEN PUSH A COLD
FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION THIS WEEKEND ALONG WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SOME SHOWERS...BEFORE SUNSHINE AND WARMER WEATHER RETURN EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A CLOSED LOW SOUTH OF CAPE COD LATE THIS
EVENING. OUR REGION IS ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF MOISTURE FROM THIS
SYSTEM...WITH A SHORTWAVE PIVOTING AROUND THIS LOW EXITING SOUTH
OF OUR CWA. AFTER THIS...SATELLITE AND MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW DRIER
AIR TO THE NORTH...WHICH SHOULD KEEP WESTERN NEW YORK DRY FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. 00Z RUNS OF THE NAM/RGEM AND
LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE ARE SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT
EVENTUALLY PIVOT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AROUND THIS SYSTEM THURSDAY
MORNING.
DRIER AIR ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS HAS HELPED REDUCE FOG ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER...WITH JUST SOME LINGERING PATCHY FOG ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN. MEANWHILE SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST A PARTIAL CLEARING
ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER LATER TONIGHT...WHILE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND UPSLOPING SHOULD MAINTAIN CLOUD COVER ELSEWHERE.
FOR TOMORROW EXPECT THE RAIN SHOWERS TO THE EAST TO FILL WESTWARD
SOME AS LOW LEVEL WINDS AND ADDED CONVERGENCE INCREASES.
YET...WESTWARD TO ABOUT THE GENESEE VALLEY AS THERE WILL BE A
SHARP CUTOFF TO THE PRECIPITATION WITH AREAS WEST OF THE GENESEE
VALLEY AGAIN LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY TOMORROW.
ANY BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD FILL IN WITH
DAYTIME HEATING AND THE COOL AND MOIST NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
LAKES. INTERIOR SECTIONS MAY NOT CLEAR OUT UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY
WHEN DRIER AIR FINALLY HELPS MIX OUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
CLOUDS WILL REMAIN THICK THROUGH THE TIME PERIOD...THOUGH THERE MAY
BE ENOUGH DRY AIR REACHING FAR WESTERN NEW YORK FOR PERIODS OF
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. CLOUDS WILL LIMIT FALLING TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S WHERE
CLOUDS REMAIN IN PLACE. HIGHER TERRAIN AND AREAS ACROSS THE
NIAGARA FRONTIER WHICH CLEAR OUT SHOULD DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S.
TOMORROW TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RECOVER MUCH ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY WITH HIGHS REMAINING IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. HOWEVER
FARTHER WESTWARD 50S WILL BE FOUND...AND POTENTIALLY MID TO UPPER
50S ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK IF A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE
DEVELOPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH THE DEEP COASTAL LOW OFF CAPE COD. THE
LOW WILL FINALLY PULL AWAY INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY SATURDAY.
AREA OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
LOW IN THE DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW...POSSIBLY MAINTAINING WET WEATHER
ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. RENEWED
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A POTENT UPPER
LEVEL LOW RAPIDLY APPROACHES FROM CENTRAL CANADA. TEMPERATURES
LIKELY HOLDING IN THE 50S FRIDAY UNDER ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...BUT
HAVING A MUCH BETTER RUN AT THE 60S SATURDAY IN A WARM AIR ADVECTION
REGIME AND LOW CLOUD COVER LESSENS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A POTENT FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DROPPING OUT OF NORTHERN
ONTARIO WILL IMPACT THE REGION AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. MOST OF
THE ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL AFFECT THE NORTH
COUNTRY...BUT DEPENDING UPON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SYSTEM ALL AREAS
COULD SEE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE ONLY LIMITING
FACTOR MAY BE THE AVAILABILITY OF MOISTURE. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM... A
COLD WEST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP. THIS WILL SUPPORT LAKE
EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY.
CRITICAL TEMPERATURES WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL STAY
ALL RAIN...BUT OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS THERE IS SOME CHANCE FOR
A BIT OF SNOW MIXING IN VERY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW LATER SUNDAY AS RIDGING TRANSLATES
EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL USHER IN A PERIOD OF FAIR
WEATHER WITH A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK. IN FACT...SOME AREAS
MAY BE BASKING IN THE LOWER 70S BY TUESDAY.
PATTERN BECOMES UNSETTLED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS TROUGHING
ALOFT EXPANDS FROM THE FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. MAIN
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TUESDAY WILL
WORK ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. WARM AIR AND
MOIST ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH ANY SHORTWAVES WORKING
ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF LARGE SCALE TROUGH PROBABLY TOUCHING OFF
SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 03Z...DRIER AIR HAS MOVED IN NORTHWEST OF THE UPPER LOW WHICH IS
SOUTH OF CAPE COD. THIS WILL RESULT IN A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT FOR MOST TAF SITES. A PERIOD OF IFR OR LOWER
CIGS IS STILL POSSIBLE AT JHW. ALL IMPROVE LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR BUILDS IN.
FOR ART...EXPECT PRIMARILY VFR CIGS OVERNIGHT. VWP SHOWS 45 KT
WINDS AT 2K FT...SO WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY LLWS IN THE ART TAF. LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH MVFR SHOWERS/CIGS
LIKELY AT ART.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN
ZONES.
SUNDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS WILL VARY CONSIDERABLY ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO. WINDS HAVE
DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY ACROSS WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO...WHICH
ALLOWED US TO DROP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES THERE. MEANWHILE A
BRISK FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO THIS
EVENING...WITH GUIDANCE SUGGESTING WINDS WILL PICK UP TO STRONG
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS NEAR 30 KTS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.
BASED ON THIS HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA HEADLINES A BIT LONGER FOR
THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINES.
ANOTHER FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY WITH WINDS AND WAVES
AGAIN RISING TO ABOVE SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON BOTH LAKES LATE
SATURDAY THROUGH LATE SUNDAY.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR LOZ043-044.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR LOZ045.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
745 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...COOL NORTHERLY FLOW AND PERIODIC RAIN SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY OVER THE GENESEE VALLEY...FINGER LAKES AND EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGIONS. ANOTHER FASTER MOVING SYSTEM WILL THEN PUSH A COLD
FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION THIS WEEKEND ALONG WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SOME SHOWERS...BEFORE SUNSHINE AND WARMER WEATHER RETURN EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EARLY THIS EVENING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A CLOSED LOW SOUTH OF
CAPE COD. OUR REGION IS ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF MOISTURE FROM
THIS SYSTEM...WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES EXPECTED TO PERIODICALLY
CLIP EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WHILE WESTERN AREAS REMAIN DRY.
AT 700 PM...RADAR SHOWS SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES CLIPPING
LEWIS COUNTY. THIS SHOULD PIVOT SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE THIS
EVENING...BUT MODEL GUIDANCE BRINGS THE NEXT WAVE IN TOWARD DAYBREAK.
THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT. 18Z
RUNS OF THE NAM/RGEM AND THE LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR KEEP MOST OF
THE QPF TO OUR EAST...OUTSIDE OF LIGHT SHOWERS ALREADY CLIPPING
LEWIS COUNTY THIS EVENING. THIS MAY HAPPEN AGAIN TOWARD DAYBREAK
AS A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE CLIPS THE SAME AREA. OTHERWISE ABUNDANT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN SOME FOG ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER...HOWEVER IR SATELLITE SHOWS SOME
DRIER AIR WORKING IN WHICH MAY HELP DISSIPATE SOME OF THE FOG LATE
TONIGHT.
FOR TOMORROW EXPECT THE RAIN SHOWERS TO THE EAST TO FILL WESTWARD
SOME AS LOW LEVEL WINDS AND ADDED CONVERGENCE INCREASES.
YET...WESTWARD TO ABOUT THE GENESEE VALLEY AS THERE WILL BE A
SHARP CUTOFF TO THE PRECIPITATION WITH AREAS WEST OF THE GENESEE
VALLEY AGAIN LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY TOMORROW.
ANY BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD FILL IN WITH
DAYTIME HEATING AND THE COOL AND MOIST NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
LAKES. INTERIOR SECTIONS MAY NOT CLEAR OUT UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY
WHEN DRIER AIR FINALLY HELPS MIX OUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
CLOUDS WILL REMAIN THICK THROUGH THE TIME PERIOD...THOUGH THERE MAY
BE ENOUGH DRY AIR REACHING FAR WESTERN NEW YORK FOR PERIODS OF
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. CLOUDS WILL LIMIT FALLING TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S WHERE
CLOUDS REMAIN IN PLACE. HIGHER TERRAIN AND AREAS ACROSS THE
NIAGARA FRONTIER WHICH CLEAR OUT SHOULD DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S.
TOMORROW TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RECOVER MUCH ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY WITH HIGHS REMAINING IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. HOWEVER
FARTHER WESTWARD 50S WILL BE FOUND...AND POTENTIALLY MID TO UPPER
50S ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK IF A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE
DEVELOPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH THE DEEP COASTAL LOW OFF CAPE COD. THE
LOW WILL FINALLY PULL AWAY INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY SATURDAY.
AREA OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
LOW IN THE DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW...POSSIBLY MAINTAINING WET WEATHER
ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. RENEWED
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A POTENT UPPER
LEVEL LOW RAPIDLY APPROACHES FROM CENTRAL CANADA. TEMPERATURES
LIKELY HOLDING IN THE 50S FRIDAY UNDER ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...BUT
HAVING A MUCH BETTER RUN AT THE 60S SATURDAY IN A WARM AIR ADVECTION
REGIME AND LOW CLOUD COVER LESSENS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A POTENT FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DROPPING OUT OF NORTHERN
ONTARIO WILL IMPACT THE REGION AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. MOST OF
THE ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL AFFECT THE NORTH
COUNTRY...BUT DEPENDING UPON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SYSTEM ALL AREAS
COULD SEE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE ONLY LIMITING
FACTOR MAY BE THE AVAILABILITY OF MOISTURE. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM... A
COLD WEST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP. THIS WILL SUPPORT LAKE
EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY.
CRITICAL TEMPERATURES WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL STAY
ALL RAIN...BUT OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS THERE IS SOME CHANCE FOR
A BIT OF SNOW MIXING IN VERY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW LATER SUNDAY AS RIDGING TRANSLATES
EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL USHER IN A PERIOD OF FAIR
WEATHER WITH A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK. IN FACT...SOME AREAS
MAY BE BASKING IN THE LOWER 70S BY TUESDAY.
PATTERN BECOMES UNSETTLED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS TROUGHING
ALOFT EXPANDS FROM THE FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. MAIN
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TUESDAY WILL
WORK ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. WARM AIR AND
MOIST ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH ANY SHORTWAVES WORKING
ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF LARGE SCALE TROUGH PROBABLY TOUCHING OFF
SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 23Z DRIER AIR HAS MOVED IN NORTHWEST OF THE UPPER LOW WHICH IS
SOUTH OF CAPE COD. FOR BUF/IAG THIS WILL PROBABLY BRING VFR WITH
PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ITS A BIT MORE
UNCERTAIN WHAT WILL HAPPEN WHEN THIS DRIER AIR REACHES JHW...WITH
FORECAST MOISTURE PROFILES SHOWING SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THIS
EVENING...AND POSSIBLY THE REST OF THE NIGHT DEPENDING HOW
PERSISTENT LOW MOISTURE REMAINS. CIGS SHOULD LIFT ON THURSDAY AS
DRIER AIR FINALLY MIXES IN. BUF/IAG/JHW/ROC SHOULD ALL IMPROVE
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR BUILDS IN.
FOR ART...EXPECT PRIMARILY MVFR CIGS. BASED ON RUC/NAM
FORECASTS...HAVE ADDED LLWS TO ART WHERE A 40KT NE FLOW IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING AND TO LAST OVERNIGHT.
PERIODIC BUT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH MVFR SHOWERS/CIGS
LIKELY AT ART.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN
ZONES.
SUNDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS WILL VARY CONSIDERABLY ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO. WINDS HAVE
DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY ACROSS WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO...WHICH
ALLOWED US TO DROP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES THERE. MEANWHILE A
BRISK FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO THIS
EVENING...WITH GUIDANCE SUGGESTING WINDS WILL PICK UP TO STRONG
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS NEAR 30 KTS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.
BASED ON THIS HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA HEADLINES A BIT LONGER FOR
THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINES.
ANOTHER FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY WITH WINDS AND WAVES
AGAIN RISING TO ABOVE SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON BOTH LAKES LATE
SATURDAY THROUGH LATE SUNDAY.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR LOZ043-044.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR LOZ045.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
819 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
AND THEN MOVE OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY WHICH WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
CLOSELY WATCHING THE LOWEST LEVEL RH AND WIND FIELDS ON THE RAP
FOR ASSESSMENT OF CLOUD DEPARTURE. CONCERNS ARE THE NEAR NON-
MOVEMENT OF THE CLOUD SHIELD OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SLIGHTLY EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND FIELD IN
THE 925 LAYER EXPECTED TO MATERIALIZE OVERNIGHT. WILL HAVE TO KEEP
A CLOSE EYE...AS IF THE RAP 925 IS CORRECT...THERE MAY BE VERY
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLEARING DOWN VERY CLOSE TO AND SOUTH OF THE
OHIO RIVER. A BETTER CHANCE OF CLEARING AND THEREFOR FROST WILL BE
FROM THE DAYTON AREA NORTHWARD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. WITH LIGHT WINDS IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES...TEMPERATURES
COULD GET COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME FROST THURSDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THERE WILL BE TOO MANY CLOUDS.
A SHORT WAVE WILL APPROACH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH ON
FRIDAY. THERE WILL ONLY BE A WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION. MOISTURE
WILL BE LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM. SO THE CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN
IS QUITE LOW ALTHOUGH A FEW SPRINKLES ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE A LULL BETWEEN THE SURFACE TROUGH AND A WEAK
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
LEANED TOWARDS WARMER GFS MOS FOR THURSDAY HIGHS AND COOLER NAM
MOS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS. MOS BLEND LOOKED REASONABLE FOR OTHER
PERIODS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THERE IS NOT A
LOT OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE AND THEREFORE LEFT THE FORECAST
DRY. HAVE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK INTO THE FA SATURDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN NEAR
THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE FA. SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ON MONDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 70S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS. THIS
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND THEREFORE LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY DROP DOWN INTO THE 50S.
SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES MORE ON TUESDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM WITH WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH POSSIBLE AT TIMES. THERE
ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN MODEL TIMING AND STRENGTH WITH THE SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. HAVE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY EVENING AND THEN GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF ACROSS
THE FA. COOLER AIR WILL USHER INTO THE AREA WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
COLD FRONT AND HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S AND
60S.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WITH THE CONTINUED NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS...HAVE
PUSHED BACK CLEARING TIMES SIGNIFICANTLY IN ESPECIALLY KCVG/KLUK
WHERE THE HIGHER RH VALUES SLOWLY SETTLE SOUTHWARD. BEST CHANCES
OF CLEARING JUST AFTER 06Z WILL BE AT KDAY.
HAVE GONE EVEN MORE PESSIMISTIC AT KCMH/KLCK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
.OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR OHZ026-034-
035-042>044-051>053-060>062-070>072-077>079.
KY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR KYZ089>099.
IN...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR INZ050-058-
059-066-073>075-080.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JDR
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...JDR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
701 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR BUFFALO WILL MOVE OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COAST LATER TODAY AND THEN REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH MID
WEEK...TRAPPED BY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
PORTION OF THE NATION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND EXTEND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH
THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...INCREASED POPS IN THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS BASED ON CURRENT
RADAR AND TRENDS. OTHERWISE NO BIG CHANGES.
ORIGINAL...THE COLD FRONT IS NOW PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA AND FOR
THE MOMENT...MOST OF THE RAIN IS EAST OF OHIO. MODELS SHOW THE
UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTH TODAY REACHING EASTERN LAKE ERIE BY 18Z
AND WESTERN PA BY 00Z. IN RESPONSE...THE HRRR SHOWS PRECIP
REDEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING WITH
HIGHEST COVERAGE AND GREATEST CONFIDENCE EAST THIRD TO HALF. WILL
HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS FROM CLEVELAND EAST AND TAPER DOWN TO SLIGHT
CHANCE FAR WEST. WITH CLOUDS...RAIN AND SOME COLD
ADVECTION...HIGHS WILL LIKELY NOT GET OUT OF THE LOW TO MID 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN PA TODAY REACHING NRN VA
TONIGHT BEFORE FINALLY MOVING OFF THE DELMARVA COAST WEDNESDAY. THE
LOW MOVES BACK NORTH INTO NEW ENGLAND FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
BASICALLY EASTERN OHIO AND NWRN PA WILL BE WITHIN THE CIRCULATION
OF THE SYSTEM TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SHORT WAVES ROTATING
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL COME TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY CHANCE POPS FOR NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA WEDNESDAY AS DEEPER MOISTURE PULLS EAST. THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AS VERY DRY AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
TEMPS BELOW NORMAL TO START...RISING TO NEAR NORMAL BY LATE WEEK.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF A COLD FRONT CLIPPING THE AREA
SAT OR EARLY SAT NIGHT IS LEADING TO UNCERTAINTY. FOR NOW WILL STAY
WITH SLIGHT CHC POPS. TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE A LITTLE MORE FOR
SAT...GETTING CLOSE TO NORMAL.
CONTINUE UNCERTAINTY FOR SUN DUE TO THE MODEL DIFFERENCES. WILL KEEP
THE FORECAST DRY WITH TEMPS SIMILAR TO SAT. MORE UPPER RIDGING FOR
MON AND A S TO SW FLOW SHOULD FINALLY LEAD TO A DAY OF TEMPS ABOVE
NORMAL. RIGHT NOW THE MODELS KEEP THE BETTER MOISTURE WEST OF THE
AREA SO WILL KEEP THE DAY DRY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MIX OF IFR/MVFR AND LOCAL VFR SHOULD SETTLE INTO A MORE UNIFORM MVFR
BY MIDDAY. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE LATE AFTERNOON THRU 06Z. SCT SHRA
WILL CONTINUE NEXT 24 HOURS AS UPPER LEVEL LOW STALLS JUST EAST OF
AREA BUT SHOULD SHIFT INTO MAINLY EAST HALF OF THE AREA. COLDER
TEMPS WILL ALSO ADD SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO THE SHRA.
WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KNOTS WILL BE LIKELY TODAY THEN SHOULD
GRADUALLY DECREASE EARLY TONIGHT.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR SHOULD SLOWLY SHIFT EAST WED THRU WED NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
THINK INCREASING NORTH WINDS WILL PRODUCE SCA CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF
THE LAKE TODAY THAT WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE INTO WED NIGHT AND MAYBE
EVEN INTO THU EVE AS THE WEATHER PATTERN SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE. HIGH
PRESSURE DOES FINALLY SPREAD UP THE OHIO VALLEY FRI AND SHOULD
DECREASE THE WINDS ENOUGH FOR WAVES TO BE BELOW 4 FEET.
THE MODELS DIFFER MORE FOR SAT SO THE STRENGTH AND AFFECTS OF A COLD
FRONT THAT MAY CROSS THE LAKE IS IN QUESTION. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW
SOME INCREASE IN A SW WIND BY SAT VEERING WEST BY THE END OF THE DAY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EDT
THURSDAY FOR LEZ142>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
635 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT CROSSES TODAY. LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS ALONG THE EAST COAST
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST THURSDAY. A WEAK FRONT POSSIBLE FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 06Z THE COLD FRONT IS JUST ABOUT INTO OUR FORECAST AREA AND
WILL RACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THERE ARE
ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. BY 16Z ACCORDING
TO THE HRRR EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS. THESE
SHOWERS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE. MODELS ARE
IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO AND EVEN INDICATE THERE
COULD BE A FEW ISOLATED RUMBLES OF THUNDER LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE BEST LOCATION FOR THUNDER WILL BE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
HAVE GONE ON THE LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY AND
TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WITH STUBBORN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FINALLY MOVING OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST ON WEDNESDAY...COLD NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL
AT THE SFC THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHILE BACKING FROM THE
NORTHWEST ALOFT BY THURSDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL THEN PIVOT NE
ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST ON THURSDAY.
A SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO PROVIDE PLENTY OF
CLEAR SKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...EXCEPT OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN MOUNTAINS. UNDER NORTHERLY WIND
COMPONENT...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE COLD SIDE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT.
MODELS SUGGEST THE COLDEST H850 TEMPERATURES...A POCKET OF
FREEZING AIR MASS...WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST OH...AWAY
FROM LINGERING PCPN OVER THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS KEEPING PCPN TYPE
LIQUID WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD. DECREASE A DEGREE OR TWO FOR
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY PER DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERALL...DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. PERIOD
STARTS OUT WITH A CLOSED LOW OFF TO THE NORTHEAST/CENTERED ALONG THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST...WITH A FEW CLOUDS...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN ZONES CLOSER TO VICINITY OF THE LOW. SEASONABLE...BUT
DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA WITH A W/NW FLOW.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY AN ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE LATER SATURDAY.
MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH EACH OF THESE FEATURES...AND EXPECTING
MOSTLY JUST AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...ALTHOUGH LIGHT
PRECIPITATION CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT. FOR NOW...MAINTAINED A
DRY FORECAST.
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES AROUND
TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND MVFR CIGS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH 13-14Z. CIGS WILL IMPROVE FOR A FEW HOURS BUT
EXPECT AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS BY 16Z AND MVFR CIGS ONCE AGAIN.
THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED -TSRA AREA WIDE FROM 19-22Z BUT WILL
ONLY INCLUDE AT KPKB AND KEKN. MVFR CIGS WILL STAY AROUND THROUGH
TONIGHT. KPKB...KEKN...KCKB SHOULD GO DOWN TO IFR AFTER O6Z.
W/NW WINDS LESS THAN 10KT EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY WITH HIGHER
GUSTS ALONG THE RIDGES. NW WINDS OVERNIGHT LESS THAN 5 KTS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND HOW LONG MVFR CONDITIONS COULD
LAST THIS MORNING. TIMING OF IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND THE
POSSIBILITY TI COULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
EDT 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
CRW CONSISTENCY H M L H H H M H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H L M H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M M H L H M M M M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H L L L L M H H H M M
CKB CONSISTENCY H M M M M H L L L H H H
AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR IN LOW STRATUS POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FB/ARJ
NEAR TERM...FB
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...FB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
616 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR BUFFALO WILL MOVE OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COAST LATER TODAY AND THEN REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH MID WEEK...TRAPPED
BY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF
THE NATION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY AND EXTEND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...INCREASED POPS IN THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS BASED ON CURRENT
RADAR AND TRENDS. OTHERWISE NO BIG CHANGES.
ORIGINAL...THE COLD FRONT IS NOW PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA AND FOR
THE MOMENT...MOST OF THE RAIN IS EAST OF OHIO. MODELS SHOW THE
UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTH TODAY REACHING EASTERN LAKE ERIE BY 18Z
AND WESTERN PA BY 00Z. IN RESPONSE...THE HRRR SHOWS PRECIP
REDEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING WITH
HIGHEST COVERAGE AND GREATEST CONFIDENCE EAST THIRD TO HALF. WILL
HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS FROM CLEVELAND EAST AND TAPER DOWN TO SLIGHT
CHANCE FAR WEST. WITH CLOUDS...RAIN AND SOME COLD
ADVECTION...HIGHS WILL LIKELY NOT GET OUT OF THE LOW TO MID 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN PA TODAY REACHING NRN VA
TONIGHT BEFORE FINALLY MOVING OFF THE DELMARVA COAST WEDNESDAY. THE
LOW MOVES BACK NORTH INTO NEW ENGLAND FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
BASICALLY EASTERN OHIO AND NWRN PA WILL BE WITHIN THE CIRCULATION
OF THE SYSTEM TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SHORT WAVES ROTATING
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL COME TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY CHANCE POPS FOR NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA WEDNESDAY AS DEEPER MOISTURE PULLS EAST. THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AS VERY DRY AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
TEMPS BELOW NORMAL TO START...RISING TO NEAR NORMAL BY LATE WEEK.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF A COLD FRONT CLIPPING THE AREA
SAT OR EARLY SAT NIGHT IS LEADING TO UNCERTAINTY. FOR NOW WILL STAY
WITH SLIGHT CHC POPS. TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE A LITTLE MORE FOR
SAT...GETTING CLOSE TO NORMAL.
CONTINUE UNCERTAINTY FOR SUN DUE TO THE MODEL DIFFERENCES. WILL KEEP
THE FORECAST DRY WITH TEMPS SIMILAR TO SAT. MORE UPPER RIDGING FOR
MON AND A S TO SW FLOW SHOULD FINALLY LEAD TO A DAY OF TEMPS ABOVE
NORMAL. RIGHT NOW THE MODELS KEEP THE BETTER MOISTURE WEST OF THE
AREA SO WILL KEEP THE DAY DRY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MIX OF IFR AND MVFR CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO DAYLIGHT THEN SHOW A
LITTLE IMPROVEMENT FROM 14 TO 18Z. TOL AND FDY MAY BE ABLE TO CARRY
VFR LEVELS DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT SITES FURTHER EAST WILL LIKELY
HANG ON TO MVFR. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE LATE AFTERNOON THRU 06Z. SCT
SHRA...MAINLY FROM CLE TO CAK EAST WILL CONTINUE NEXT 24 HOURS AS
UPPER LEVEL LOW STALLS JUST EAST OF AREA. COLDER TEMPS WILL ALSO ADD
SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO THE SHRA.
WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KNOTS WILL BE LIKELY TODAY THEN SHOULD
GRADUALLY DECREASE TONIGHT.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR SHOULD SLOWLY SHIFT EAST WED THRU WED NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
THINK INCREASING NORTH WINDS WILL PRODUCE SCA CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF
THE LAKE TODAY THAT WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE INTO WED NIGHT AND MAYBE
EVEN INTO THU EVE AS THE WEATHER PATTERN SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE. HIGH
PRESSURE DOES FINALLY SPREAD UP THE OHIO VALLEY FRI AND SHOULD
DECREASE THE WINDS ENOUGH FOR WAVES TO BE BELOW 4 FEET.
THE MODELS DIFFER MORE FOR SAT SO THE STRENGTH AND AFFECTS OF A COLD
FRONT THAT MAY CROSS THE LAKE IS IN QUESTION. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW
SOME INCREASE IN A SW WIND BY SAT VEERING WEST BY THE END OF THE DAY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EDT
THURSDAY FOR LEZ142>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
332 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES TODAY. LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS ALONG THE EAST
COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON
FRIDAY. A WEAK FRONT POSSIBLE FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AT 06Z THE COLD FRONT IS JUST ABOUT INTO OUR FORECAST AREA AND
WILL RACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THERE ARE
ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. BY 16Z ACCORDING
TO THE HRRR EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS. THESE
SHOWERS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE. MODELS ARE
IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO AND EVEN INDICATE THERE
COULD BE A FEW ISOLATED RUMBLES OF THUNDER LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE BEST LOCATION FOR THUNDER WILL BE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
HAVE GONE ON THE LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY AND
TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LOW WILL PIVOT DOWN INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND TO THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST ON WEDNESDAY. THIS SPELLS FOR A RATHER CHILLY
WX REGIME WITH A CLOUDY SKY AND SOME SHOWERS TO BOOT. THE UPPER
LOW WILL THEN PIVOT NE ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST ON THURSDAY. AS
SUCH...THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL LESS SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS
THE AREA. SUNSHINE SHOULD RETURN FOR MOST...EXCEPT IN THE N
MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT LOWLAND COUNTIES WHERE CLOUDS WILL LINGER
AS A LINGERING INFLUENCE FROM THE UPPER LOW MAY BE REALIZED.
FOR TEMPS...TRIED TO UNDERCUT GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY
KEEPING MOST LOWLAND ZONES IN THE LOW 50S AND 40S IN THE THE HIGH
TERRAIN. STILL COULD BE SOME FROST ACROSS NE KY AND SE OH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ASSUMING THE CLOUDS WILL BREAK IN TIME.
THUS...HAVE COOLEST READINGS ACROSS THOSE AREAS. IMPROVEMENT IN
THE TEMPS WILL BE FELT ON THURSDAY DUE TO SUNSHINE...BUT STILL
CHILLY ACROSS N WV WHERE CLOUDS MAY LINGER.
AS FOR PRECIP TYPE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...H85 TEMPS TRY TO GO BELOW 0C
BUT SOUNDINGS DO NOT SUPPORT ICE CRYSTALS FOR SNOW. SO KEPT THINGS
LIQUID IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS FOR NOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERALL...DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. PERIOD
STARTS OUT WITH A CLOSED LOW OFF TO THE NORTHEAST/CENTERED ALONG THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST...WITH A FEW CLOUDS...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN ZONES CLOSER TO VICINITY OF THE LOW. SEASONABLE...BUT
DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA WITH A W/NW FLOW.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY AN ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE LATER SATURDAY.
MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH EACH OF THESE FEATURES...AND EXPECTING
MOSTLY JUST AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...ALTHOUGH LIGHT
PRECIPITATION CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT. FOR NOW...MAINTAINED A
DRY FORECAST.
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES AROUND
TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL RACE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND WILL HAVE ISOLATED
SHOWERS. MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 13-14Z. CIGS WILL IMPROVE
FOR A FEW HOURS BUT EXPECT AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS BY 16Z AND MVFR
CIGS ONCE AGAIN. THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED -TSRA AREA WIDE FROM
19-22Z BUT WILL ONLY INCLUDE AT KPKB AND KEKN. MVFR CIGS WILL STAY
AROUND THROUGH TONIGHT. KPKB...KEKN...KCKB COULD BE IFR AFTER O6Z
ON THE 22ND.
W/NW WINDS LESS THAN 10KT EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY WITH HIGHER
GUSTS ALONG THE RIDGES.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z
WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND HOW LONG MVFR CONDITIONS COULD
LAST THIS MORNING. IFR CONDITIONS COULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE TUE 10/21/14
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
CRW CONSISTENCY H M M H H H M L H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H M H H H M
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M H H M
EKN CONSISTENCY H H L L L L L L H H H L
PKB CONSISTENCY M M H H H M H L L L M M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H M M L H H H H L
AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR IN LOW STRATUS POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FB/ARJ
NEAR TERM...FB
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...FB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
248 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR BUFFALO WILL MOVE OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COAST LATER TODAY AND THEN REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH MID WEEK...TRAPPED
BY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF
THE NATION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY AND EXTEND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
THE COLD FRONT IS NOW PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA AND FOR THE
MOMENT...MOST OF THE RAIN IS EAST OF OHIO. MODELS SHOW THE UPPER
LOW DROPPING SOUTH TODAY REACHING EASTERN LAKE ERIE BY 18Z AND
WESTERN PA BY 00Z. IN RESPONSE...THE HRRR SHOWS PRECIP
REDEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING WITH
HIGHEST COVERAGE AND GREATEST CONFIDENCE EAST THIRD TO HALF. WILL
HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS FROM CLEVELAND EAST AND TAPER DOWN TO SLIGHT
CHANCE FAR WEST. WITH CLOUDS...RAIN AND SOME COLD
ADVECTION...HIGHS WILL LIKELY NOT GET OUT OF THE LOW TO MID 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN PA TODAY REACHING NRN VA
TONIGHT BEFORE FINALLY MOVING OFF THE DELMARVA COAST WEDNESDAY. THE
LOW MOVES BACK NORTH INTO NEW ENGLAND FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
BASICALLY EASTERN OHIO AND NWRN PA WILL BE WITHIN THE CIRCULATION
OF THE SYSTEM TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SHORT WAVES ROTATING
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL COME TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY CHANCE POPS FOR NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA WEDNESDAY AS DEEPER MOISTURE PULLS EAST. THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AS VERY DRY AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
TEMPS BELOW NORMAL TO START...RISING TO NEAR NORMAL BY LATE WEEK.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF A COLD FRONT CLIPPING THE AREA
SAT OR EARLY SAT NIGHT IS LEADING TO UNCERTAINTY. FOR NOW WILL STAY
WITH SLIGHT CHC POPS. TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE A LITTLE MORE FOR
SAT...GETTING CLOSE TO NORMAL.
CONTINUE UNCERTAINTY FOR SUN DUE TO THE MODEL DIFFERENCES. WILL KEEP
THE FORECAST DRY WITH TEMPS SIMILAR TO SAT. MORE UPPER RIDGING FOR
MON AND A S TO SW FLOW SHOULD FINALLY LEAD TO A DAY OF TEMPS ABOVE
NORMAL. RIGHT NOW THE MODELS KEEP THE BETTER MOISTURE WEST OF THE
AREA SO WILL KEEP THE DAY DRY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MIX OF IFR AND MVFR CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO DAYLIGHT THEN SHOW A
LITTLE IMPROVEMENT FROM 14 TO 18Z. TOL AND FDY MAY BE ABLE TO CARRY
VFR LEVELS DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT SITES FURTHER EAST WILL LIKELY
HANG ON TO MVFR. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE LATE AFTERNOON THRU 06Z. SCT
SHRA...MAINLY FROM CLE TO CAK EAST WILL CONTINUE NEXT 24 HOURS AS
UPPER LEVEL LOW STALLS JUST EAST OF AREA. COLDER TEMPS WILL ALSO ADD
SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO THE SHRA.
WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KNOTS WILL BE LIKELY TODAY THEN SHOULD
GRADUALLY DECREASE TONIGHT.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR SHOULD SLOWLY SHIFT EAST WED THRU WED NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
THINK INCREASING NORTH WINDS WILL PRODUCE SCA CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF
THE LAKE TODAY THAT WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE INTO WED NIGHT AND MAYBE
EVEN INTO THU EVE AS THE WEATHER PATTERN SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE. HIGH
PRESSURE DOES FINALLY SPREAD UP THE OHIO VALLEY FRI AND SHOULD
DECREASE THE WINDS ENOUGH FOR WAVES TO BE BELOW 4 FEET.
THE MODELS DIFFER MORE FOR SAT SO THE STRENGTH AND AFFECTS OF A COLD
FRONT THAT MAY CROSS THE LAKE IS IN QUESTION. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW
SOME INCREASE IN A SW WIND BY SAT VEERING WEST BY THE END OF THE DAY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND OR
944 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014
.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT A VERY WET AND OCCASIONALLY WINDY WEEK AHEAD AS
AN ACTIVE FALL WEATHER PATTERN DOMINATES SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND
NORTHWEST OREGON. THE SYSTEM WHICH BROUGHT SHOWERS AND A COUPLE
CLAPS OF THUNDER MONDAY HAS MOVED INTO EASTERN OREGON AND THE GREAT
BASIN. ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY REMAINS LEFT BEHIND FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM IS
TAKING SHAPE OFFSHORE. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A SLOW MOVER...SPREADING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. THIS FRONT WILL PRODUCE STRONG COASTAL WINDS
AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOP ALONG IT AND PASS BY. ANOTHER WET
AND POTENTIALLY WINDY FRONT IS EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND.
&&
.UPDATE...MODELS HAVE CHANGED LITTLE THUS FAR WITH THE 12Z OUTPUT.
THE WARM FRONT IS CURRENTLY SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT STILL WELL OFFSHORE. THE OCCLUSION IS SITUATED
JUST OFFSHORE THE NORTH TIP OF VANCOUVER ISLAND. THIS SETUP PLACES
OUR REGION SQUARELY IN THE WARMING SECTOR OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM.
CONDITIONS ARE STILL VERY FAVORABLE TO SEE A COASTAL JET DEVELOP
WITH NAM12 AND RAP INDICATED PEAK SPEEDS AROUND 67 MPH CENTERED
AROUND 900 MB. THUS FEEL MOST GUSTS ALONG THE COAST WILL PEAK OUT
AROUND 60 MPH GIVEN BROAD ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
AND WINDS AT THAT LEVEL VEERING MORE SW THAN THE SOUTH WINDS TRAPPED
ALONG THE TERRAIN. WILL STILL CARRY THE HIGHER SPEEDS TONIGHT IN THE
PRODUCTS FOR NOW AS THE EXPOSED HIGHER HEADLANDS SUCH AS CAPE
FOULWEATHER...CAPE LOOKOUT...AND CAPE DISAPPOINTMENT CERTAINLY COULD
FULLY REALIZE THOSE HIGHER SPEEDS. RAIN AMOUNTS REMAIN ON TRACK AS
EXPECTED FROM OVER THE LAST COUPLE DAYS. /JBONK
&&
.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 351 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE MAIN FEATURE OF THE SHORT
TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE OUR STRONGEST FRONTAL SYSTEM SO FAR
THIS SEASON...PRODUCING STRONG COASTAL WINDS LATER TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO HAVE A STRONG TAP TO SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE...SPREADING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
CONDITIONS ARE RIPE FOR CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE FRONT...AND MULTIPLE
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND RIDE NE ALONG THE
FRONT AS IT PASSES SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN WA/OR.
FIRST THINGS FIRST...SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS MORNING IN THE
RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY LEFT BEHIND THE FRONT
WHICH MOVED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY. THESE SHOULD GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF THIS MORNING AS THE AIR MASS WARMS ALOFT...HOWEVER THE WARM
ADVECTION ALOFT WILL ALSO PRODUCE ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN RAINY DAY FOR THE COAST AND PERHAPS OUR NORTHERN ZONES AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS THROUGH NW OREGON AND SW WASHINGTON.
BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...THE DOOR WILL BE OPENED FOR A STRENGTHENING
COASTAL JET AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THOUGH DETAILS
VARY...MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN SUGGESTING A 55 TO
65 KT SOUTHERLY JET DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST AT 950 MB. THIS SHOULD
BE AMPLE FOR 55-70 MPH GUSTS AT TIMES ALONG THE BEACHES AND HEADLANDS
FROM THE S WA COAST DOWN TO THE LINCOLN AND POSSIBLY LANE COUNTY
COAST. THEREFORE WILL BE UPGRADING THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO A WARNING
FOR THESE AREAS. TIMING WILL REMAIN THE SAME FOR THE S WA/N OR
COAST...THIS AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL EXTEND THE TIMING
FOR THE CENTRAL COAST INTO MIDDAY WEDNESDAY TO GIVE THE FRONT SOME
TIME TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE LANE/DOUGLAS COUNTY BORDER.
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...WHICH WILL SLOW DOWN ITS SOUTHWARD
PROGRESS. THESE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY EACH PRODUCE A
BURST OF COASTAL WIND TO ITS SOUTH AND EAST ALONG THE FRONT. SO WINDS
MAY BE STRONG FOR A FEW HOURS...LET UP A BIT...THEN PICK BACK UP
AGAIN UNTIL THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF COASTAL LOCATIONS. THERE IS
STILL A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW DEEP THESE LOWS WILL
GET...WHICH OF COURSE WOULD IMPACT THE EXPECTED WIND SPEEDS.
THE 06Z NAM IS DEVELOPING A 990 MB LOW ALONG THE FRONT BY 09Z WED...
PUSHING IT INTO VANCOUVER ISLAND WED MORNING. THE FIRST SIGNS OF THIS
DEVELOPING LOW ARE ALREADY SHOWING UP ON INFRARED/WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
WITH A BAROCLINIC LEAF TAKING SHAPE ALONG THE FRONT NEAR 150W. A
SECONDARY LOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE TRIPLE POINT OF THE
RESULTING OCCLUDING FRONT OFF THE NORTHERN OREGON COAST...AND PERHAPS
A TERTIARY LOW THEREAFTER. THESE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOW THE
SOUTHWARD PROGRESS...EACH PRODUCING A BURST OF COASTAL WIND TO ITS
SOUTH AND EAST ALONG THE FRONT. SO WINDS MAY BE STRONG FOR A FEW
HOURS...LET UP A BIT...THEN PICK BACK UP AGAIN UNTIL THE FRONT PUSHES
SOUTH OF COASTAL LOCATIONS. THERE IS STILL A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY
AS TO HOW DEEP THESE LOWS WILL GET...WHICH OF COURSE WOULD IMPACT THE
EXPECTED WIND SPEEDS.
ALSO THE 06Z NAM IS BEGINNING TO SHOW SOME POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS
IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY...AS ITS SECONDARY LOW MOVES ONSHORE NEAR
ASTORIA WED MORNING. THIS TRACK COULD OPEN UP ENOUGH SOUTHERLY
GRADIENT FOR 30-40 MPH WIND GUSTS IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND
STRONGER WIND GUSTS IN THE COASTAL COMMUNITIES. FOR NOW IT APPEARS
WINDS WILL REMAIN SUB-ADVISORY CRITERIA INLAND...BUT WILL NEED TO
MONITOR CLOSELY.
NOT TO GET LOST IN ALL THE DISCUSSION ABOUT OUR FIRST COASTAL HIGH
WIND EVENT...IS THE POTENTIAL FOR RATHER IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL TOTALS
AS THIS SLOW MOVING...WAVY FRONT MOVES SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA. THIS SYSTEM IS TAPPING INTO A DECENT ATMOSPHERIC RIVER
WHICH EXTENDS ALL THE WAY BACK BEYOND THE DATELINE. MADE ONLY MINOR
CHANGES TO THE QPF FORECAST...WITH 2 INCHES OF RAIN EXPECTED FOR THE
INLAND VALLEYS...2-4 INCHES ALONG THE COAST...AND 3-6 INCHES IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN BY THURSDAY. IT WILL BE A CLOSE CALL WHETHER OR NOT
THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE PROBLEMS ON FLASHIER RIVERS LIKE THE
GRAYS RIVER IN THE WILLAPA HILLS...AS WELL AS THE BURN SCAR AREAS
FROM THE 36 PIT AND DECEPTION FIRES. IMPACTS ON THESE AREAS WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY OVER THE COMING DAYS.
DUE TO THIS SYSTEMS SUBTROPICAL ORIGINS SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN
RATHER HIGH THROUGHOUT THIS EVENT...SO ONLY THE HIGHEST VOLCANO PEAKS
ABOVE 6000-7000 FEET WILL RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL.
THE FRONT WILL FINALLY PUSH SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA
SOMETIME LATE WED NIGHT OR THU MORNING. SHOWERS WILL LINGER IN THE
COOL UNSETTLED AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY. WEAGLE
LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO STRUGGLE WITH HOW TO HANDLE THE LATE WEEK AND WEEKEND PERIOD.
THERE IS INCREASING AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER POTENT LOW PRESSURE/
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE...PERHAPS BRINGING ANOTHER
PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS FRIDAY AND/OR SATURDAY. AS FOR
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN...THE LATEST 00Z RUNS ARE TRYING TO KEEP THE
MEAN RIDGE POSITION OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES. THIS
IS NOT SURPRISING CONSIDERING THE LARGE POOL OF ABOVE NORMAL SEA
SURFACE TEMPS OVER THE NE PACIFIC. THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MAY REMAIN
IN THE TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN LONGWAVE RIDGING AND TROUGHING WELL
INTO NEXT WEEK...WHICH IS OF COURSE WHERE THE STORM TRACK TENDS TO
BE. THEREFORE ACTIVE AND WET WEATHER AT TIMES IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK. WEAGLE
&&
.AVIATION...SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION. EXPECT PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND
TONIGHT WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS FORMING FROM TIME TO TIME. GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP TODAY AND ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING.
COASTAL SITES MAY SEE WIND GUSTS TO 45 KT AT TIMES TONIGHT THROUGH
WED MORNING. A HIGH WIND WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL
SITES. A COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD HEAVIER RAIN ONTO THE COAST
OVERNIGHT NIGHT AND INLAND TOMORROW MORNING.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR PREVAILING THROUGH TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH A
BRIEF MVFR CIG MAY FORM THROUGH ABOUT 21Z IN SHOWERS. BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. A COLD
FRONT TO SPREAD STEADY RAIN IN AFTER 12Z TOMORROW. PYLE
&&
.MARINE...S/SW WINDS CONTINUE AROUND 10 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25
KT THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TODAY...REACHING
GALE FORCE BY MID AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WITH
GUSTS TO 40 TO 45 KT EXPECTED. SOME COASTAL JET ENHANCEMENT MAY
BRING A FEW 50 TO 55 KT GUSTS TO THE NEAR SHORE WATERS.
A WESTERLY SWELL ON THE ORDER OF 10 FT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...BUT SEAS WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY TONIGHT AS THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS PICK UP. BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...SEAS
MAY APPROACH 20 KT LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP OFF DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
ADDITIONAL SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS WEEK...BUT THE TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE STRONGEST. PYLE
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM PDT WEDNESDAY
FOR NORTH OREGON COAST.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON PDT WEDNESDAY
FOR CENTRAL OREGON COAST.
WA...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM PDT WEDNESDAY
FOR SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 1 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.
GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 1 PM PDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE
OR OUT 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 9 AM PDT
WEDNESDAY.
&&
$$
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1044 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND SPIN OFF
THE COAST AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST THIS WEEK. THE WIND
FLOW AROUND THE LOW WILL BRING GENERALLY COOL AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER TO THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE SLOWLY. BY THE END OF THE WEEK AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER MOST OF THE CONTINENTAL UNITED
STATES...AND LEAD TO DRY AND FAIR WEATHER WITH MILDER
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1030 AM UPDATE...
MINOR CHANGES TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND TO INFUSE
ADVANCED...TECHNOLOGICALLY-OBTAINED SOLUTIONS INTO THE NEAR-TERM
WITH REGARD TO POPS. MAXES SEEM ON TRACK...BUT COULD BE A DEG OR
TWO HIGHER IN THE SUNNIER SE. BUT THE CONVECTION WILL CLOG UP THE
SKY. SO WILL KEEP THEM AS IS. DID ADD JUST ISOLD T IN THE SE FOR
THE AFTN - AS MENTIONED BEFORE - DUE TO THE SUN/HEATING...COOLING
TEMPS ALOFT AND VISIBLE SHORT WAVE/FORCING.
9 AM UPDATE...
SHOWERS DISSIPATING OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE AREA...BUT ANOTHER
VORT MAX OVER THE NRN PART OF THE PBZ FCST AREA WILL BE SLIDING
INTO THE WEST LATE THIS MORNING. SUN STILL WORKING OFF THE FOG IN
THE SE. BUT THE PT/MO SUNNY CONDITIONS SHOULD LAST FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF THE DAY THERE. WITH THAT SUNSHINE AND THE APPCHG SHORT
WAVE EVIDENT OVER WRN PA...THE TEMPS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
UPRIGHT CONVECTION AND SCT/NMRS SHOWERS.
PREV...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A PAIR OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSES AT 09Z: 1)
DIGGING SWD THROUGH SRN ONTARIO (HELPING TO EVENTUALLY CARVE OUT
AND CLOSE OFF UPPER LOW) AND 2) ROTATING EWD THRU CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA. THE PA IMPULSE WILL CONTINUE SHIFT EWD THRU THE
MORNING AND MAINTAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY PRIMARILY OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL ALLEGHENIES...WHICH SHOULD BECOME
ENHANCED BY POST FRONTAL NW/UPSLOPE FLOW. LATEST HRRR CONFIRMS
THIS WHILE KEEPING MOST AREAS S/E OF THE I-99 CORRIDOR MAINLY DRY
THRU MID-LATE MORNING.
ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED
AND EVENTUALLY CLOSING OFF OVER PA BY THIS EVE/00Z.
MEANWHILE...SFC LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER BUFFALO NY WILL
TRANSFER ITS ENERGY TO COASTAL DEVELOPMENT NEAR OR JUST OFFSHORE
NJ AND THE DELMARVA. THE LATEST RAP SFC PRES FALLS ARE STARTING TO
SHOW THIS WITH -3 TO -4MB FALLS. DIFFERENCES START TO EMERGE IN
THE MODELS WITH THE SFC LOW TRACK/POSITION BY 22/12Z WITH THE
GFS/GEFS MEMBERS BEING WEST OF THE ECMWF/CMC ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.
RELATIVELY COOL AIR ALOFT ACCOMPANYING THE EVOLVING UPPER LEVEL
LOW WITH MID-LVL LAPSE RATES IN THE 6.5-7.0 C/KM RANGE...AND LG
SCALE LIFT GENERATED BY VORT MAXIMA PIVOTING OVER THE REGION
SHOULD PROMOTE INCREASED COVERAGE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY BY THE
AFTERNOON. HRRR SHOWS BULK OF SHOWERS OVER WRN PA THROUGH 18Z WITH
DEVELOPING SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL AND ERN SECTIONS LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE MODEL GUIDANCE PROGS WEAK INSTABILITY /CAPES
GENERALLY AOB 300 J/KG/ ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SERN ZONES
WHICH...WHEN COUPLED WITH THE STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES...MAY
PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW ISOLATED/EMBEDDED LOW-TOPPED TSTMS
TO FORM WITHIN A BROADER AREA OF SCT TO NMRS SHOWERS.
MAIN CHANGE TO DAY 1 MAX/MIN TEMPS WAS TO RAISE OVERNIGHT LOWS
GIVEN PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND 5-10KT SUSTAINED N-NW WINDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW PIVOTING
AND WRAPPING NWWD THROUGH 12Z THURS WITH SFC LOW BECOMING NEARLY
STACKED ABOUT 100-200 MILES SSE OF LONG ISLAND. THERE CONTINUES TO
BE SOME PLACEMENT ISSUES WITH THE SFC LOW WITH THE 00Z GFS/GEFS
AND 21Z SREF ALL REASONABLY WELL CLUSTERED. THE PREVIOUS TWO RUNS
OF THE ECMWF ARE SOUTH OF THIS CONSENSUS WITH THE 00Z NAM/CMC TO
THE EAST. A SUPERBLEND OF OP/ENS/WPC QPF SHOWS THE HIGHEST POPS
OVER THE ERN 1/3 OF THE CWA EARLY WED NEAR POSSIBLE ZONE OF WRAP-
AROUND PCPN...BEFORE TRENDING LOWER WED NGT INTO THURS. IT WILL
FEEL RATHER RAW WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND A CHILLY/GUSTY NLY WIND.
A 50/50 BLEND OF CONSENSUS AND BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS GUIDANCE
YIELDED SLIGHTLY LOWER DAYTIME HIGHS AND WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS.
THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD WILL START WITH THE NEW ENGLAND COASTAL STORM LIFTING
SLOWLY NEWD ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
THU INTO SAT. THIS LOW WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF CHILLY WRAP-AROUND
RAINS IN THE FCST FOR DAY 3 POSSIBLY INTO DAY 4 DEPENDING ON HOW
FAST THE STORM LIFTS OUT. THE KEY HERE LKLY LIES UPSTREAM WITH
STRONG SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO NRN CA. THIS ENERGY IS
EXPECTED TO SPLIT OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH NRN STREAM ENERGY
PROJECTED TO DIG SEWD THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS AND MOVE OFF THE
EAST COAST BY SAT NGT. THE 00Z NON NCEP DATA WANTS TO HANG ONTO
THE NW FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM A LITTLE LONGER THAN THE
GFS/GEFS WHICH SHOW SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. THIS SEEMS DUE TO MORE PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING
SEWD ACRS SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES DOWN THE
FRONT-SIDE OF A SUBTROPCIAL RIDGE MIGRATING EWD FROM AZ/NM INTO
TX. WITH THE FLOW ALOFT FCST TO TREND TOWARD LESS AMPLIFICATION
AND SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE IN TIME WITH A BROAD BELT OF
WESTERLIES EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC COAST INTO THE NATIONS
MIDSECTION...THE DOWNSTREAM PATTERN SHOULD EVENTUALLY UNDERGO SOME
RECONFIGURATION. THIS SHOULD SEND HEIGHTS RISING WHICH WOULD
SUPPORT MILDER TEMP TREND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THAT BEING
SAID...WITH THE PATTERN RECONFIGURATION TIED TO SMALLER SCALE
DISTURBANCES WHICH TEND TO BE RATHER NOISY AT THESE RANGES...THE
EVOLUTION OF THE CHANGE IN FLOW IS LIKELY TO BE HANDLED
DIFFERENTLY IN UPCOMING MODEL AND ENSEMBLE CYCLES.
THE TAKEHOME MESSAGE: WEATHER CONDITIONS LKLY TRENDING DRIER AND
MILDER FROM THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FOG LIFTING...BUT JST IS SUNK WITH THE UPSLOPE FLOW AND STRONG
VORT MAX/SHORT WAVE APPCHG FROM THE WNW. EXPECT ONLY SLOW
IMPROVEMENT THERE.
BY LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON...SHOWERS WILL BE MORE
SCATTERED IN NATURE...AND MUCH OF THE AREA EAST OF THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS WILL BE VFR. AS THE LOW DEEPENS OFF THE EAST COAST
LATER TODAY...LOWER CIGS AND SHOWERS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD LATE.
THE AIRMASS WILL BE QUITE COLD ALOFT TODAY...THUS ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR MDT/LNS AND PERHAPS AS FAR N
AS IPT. OTHER AREAS WILLLIKELY STAY TOO CLOUDY FOR FREE
CONVECTION. NOT LOOKING AT REAL STRONG WINDS TODAY. HOWEVER...WINDS
WILL PICK UP SOME TONIGHT AS THE PGRAD TIGHTENS.
THE SFC AND UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL KEEP CLOUDY...BREEZY...AND AT
TIMES WET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA INTO THU.
EXPECT SOME IMPROVEMENT ON THURS/FRIDAY...AS THE SYSTEM SLOWLY
WORKS EASTWARD.
OUTLOOK...
WED-FRI...LOW CIGS POSS W MTNS...MAINLY AT NIGHT/EARLY AM.
SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...DANGELO/MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
951 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND SPIN OFF
THE COAST AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST THIS WEEK. THE WIND
FLOW AROUND THE LOW WILL BRING GENERALLY COOL AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER TO THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE SLOWLY. BY THE END OF THE WEEK AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER MOST OF THE CONTINENTAL UNITED
STATES...AND LEAD TO DRY AND FAIR WEATHER WITH MILDER
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
9 AM UPDATE...
SHOWERS DISSIPATING OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE AREA...BUT ANOTHER
VORT MAX OVER THE NRN PART OF THE PBZ FCST AREA WILL BE SLIDING
INTO THE WEST LATE THIS MORNING. SUN STILL WORKING OFF THE FOG IN
THE SE. BUT THE PT/MO SUNNY CONDITIONS SHOULD LAST FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF THE DAY THERE. WITH THAT SUNSHINE AND THE APPCHG SHORT
WAVE EVIDENT OVER WRN PA...THE TEMPS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
UPRIGHT CONVECTION AND SCT/NMRS SHOWERS.
PREV...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A PAIR OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSES AT 09Z: 1)
DIGGING SWD THROUGH SRN ONTARIO (HELPING TO EVENTUALLY CARVE OUT
AND CLOSE OFF UPPER LOW) AND 2) ROTATING EWD THRU CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA. THE PA IMPULSE WILL CONTINUE SHIFT EWD THRU THE
MORNING AND MAINTAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY PRIMARILY OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL ALLEGHENIES...WHICH SHOULD BECOME
ENHANCED BY POST FRONTAL NW/UPSLOPE FLOW. LATEST HRRR CONFIRMS
THIS WHILE KEEPING MOST AREAS S/E OF THE I-99 CORRIDOR MAINLY DRY
THRU MID-LATE MORNING.
ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED
AND EVENTUALLY CLOSING OFF OVER PA BY THIS EVE/00Z.
MEANWHILE...SFC LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER BUFFALO NY WILL
TRANSFER ITS ENERGY TO COASTAL DEVELOPMENT NEAR OR JUST OFFSHORE
NJ AND THE DELMARVA. THE LATEST RAP SFC PRES FALLS ARE STARTING TO
SHOW THIS WITH -3 TO -4MB FALLS. DIFFERENCES START TO EMERGE IN
THE MODELS WITH THE SFC LOW TRACK/POSITION BY 22/12Z WITH THE
GFS/GEFS MEMBERS BEING WEST OF THE ECMWF/CMC ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.
RELATIVELY COOL AIR ALOFT ACCOMPANYING THE EVOLVING UPPER LEVEL
LOW WITH MID-LVL LAPSE RATES IN THE 6.5-7.0 C/KM RANGE...AND LG
SCALE LIFT GENERATED BY VORT MAXIMA PIVOTING OVER THE REGION
SHOULD PROMOTE INCREASED COVERAGE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY BY THE
AFTERNOON. HRRR SHOWS BULK OF SHOWERS OVER WRN PA THROUGH 18Z WITH
DEVELOPING SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL AND ERN SECTIONS LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE MODEL GUIDANCE PROGS WEAK INSTABILITY /CAPES
GENERALLY AOB 300 J/KG/ ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SERN ZONES
WHICH...WHEN COUPLED WITH THE STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES...MAY
PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW ISOLATED/EMBEDDED LOW-TOPPED TSTMS
TO FORM WITHIN A BROADER AREA OF SCT TO NMRS SHOWERS.
MAIN CHANGE TO DAY 1 MAX/MIN TEMPS WAS TO RAISE OVERNIGHT LOWS
GIVEN PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND 5-10KT SUSTAINED N-NW WINDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW PIVOTING
AND WRAPPING NWWD THROUGH 12Z THURS WITH SFC LOW BECOMING NEARLY
STACKED ABOUT 100-200 MILES SSE OF LONG ISLAND. THERE CONTINUES TO
BE SOME PLACEMENT ISSUES WITH THE SFC LOW WITH THE 00Z GFS/GEFS
AND 21Z SREF ALL REASONABLY WELL CLUSTERED. THE PREVIOUS TWO RUNS
OF THE ECMWF ARE SOUTH OF THIS CONSENSUS WITH THE 00Z NAM/CMC TO
THE EAST. A SUPERBLEND OF OP/ENS/WPC QPF SHOWS THE HIGHEST POPS
OVER THE ERN 1/3 OF THE CWA EARLY WED NEAR POSSIBLE ZONE OF WRAP-
AROUND PCPN...BEFORE TRENDING LOWER WED NGT INTO THURS. IT WILL
FEEL RATHER RAW WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND A CHILLY/GUSTY NLY WIND.
A 50/50 BLEND OF CONSENSUS AND BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS GUIDANCE
YIELDED SLIGHTLY LOWER DAYTIME HIGHS AND WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS.
THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD WILL START WITH THE NEW ENGLAND COASTAL STORM LIFTING
SLOWLY NEWD ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
THU INTO SAT. THIS LOW WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF CHILLY WRAP-AROUND
RAINS IN THE FCST FOR DAY 3 POSSIBLY INTO DAY 4 DEPENDING ON HOW
FAST THE STORM LIFTS OUT. THE KEY HERE LKLY LIES UPSTREAM WITH
STRONG SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO NRN CA. THIS ENERGY IS
EXPECTED TO SPLIT OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH NRN STREAM ENERGY
PROJECTED TO DIG SEWD THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS AND MOVE OFF THE
EAST COAST BY SAT NGT. THE 00Z NON NCEP DATA WANTS TO HANG ONTO
THE NW FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM A LITTLE LONGER THAN THE
GFS/GEFS WHICH SHOW SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. THIS SEEMS DUE TO MORE PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING
SEWD ACRS SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES DOWN THE
FRONT-SIDE OF A SUBTROPCIAL RIDGE MIGRATING EWD FROM AZ/NM INTO
TX. WITH THE FLOW ALOFT FCST TO TREND TOWARD LESS AMPLIFICATION
AND SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE IN TIME WITH A BROAD BELT OF
WESTERLIES EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC COAST INTO THE NATIONS
MIDSECTION...THE DOWNSTREAM PATTERN SHOULD EVENTUALLY UNDERGO SOME
RECONFIGURATION. THIS SHOULD SEND HEIGHTS RISING WHICH WOULD
SUPPORT MILDER TEMP TREND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THAT BEING
SAID...WITH THE PATTERN RECONFIGURATION TIED TO SMALLER SCALE
DISTURBANCES WHICH TEND TO BE RATHER NOISY AT THESE RANGES...THE
EVOLUTION OF THE CHANGE IN FLOW IS LIKELY TO BE HANDLED
DIFFERENTLY IN UPCOMING MODEL AND ENSEMBLE CYCLES.
THE TAKEHOME MESSAGE: WEATHER CONDITIONS LKLY TRENDING DRIER AND
MILDER FROM THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FOG LIFTING...BUT JST IS SUNK WITH THE UPSLOPE FLOW AND STRONG
VORT MAX/SHORT WAVE APPCHG FROM THE WNW. EXPECT ONLY SLOW
IMPROVEMENT THERE.
BY LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON...SHOWERS WILL BE MORE
SCATTERED IN NATURE...AND MUCH OF THE AREA EAST OF THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS WILL BE VFR. AS THE LOW DEEPENS OFF THE EAST COAST
LATER TODAY...LOWER CIGS AND SHOWERS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD LATE.
THE AIRMASS WILL BE QUITE COLD ALOFT TODAY...THUS ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR MDT/LNS AND PERHAPS AS FAR N
AS IPT. OTHER AREAS WILLLIKELY STAY TOO CLOUDY FOR FREE
CONVECTION. NOT LOOKING AT REAL STRONG WINDS TODAY. HOWEVER...WINDS
WILL PICK UP SOME TONIGHT AS THE PGRAD TIGHTENS.
THE SFC AND UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL KEEP CLOUDY...BREEZY...AND AT
TIMES WET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA INTO THU.
EXPECT SOME IMPROVEMENT ON THURS/FRIDAY...AS THE SYSTEM SLOWLY
WORKS EASTWARD.
OUTLOOK...
WED-FRI...LOW CIGS POSS W MTNS...MAINLY AT NIGHT/EARLY AM.
SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
744 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE EVOLVING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES WILL CONTINUE TO BRING COOL AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH MID-WEEK. SLOWLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH MILDER WEATHER
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A PAIR OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSES AT 09Z: 1)
DIGGING SWD THROUGH SRN ONTARIO (HELPING TO EVENTUALLY CARVE OUT
AND CLOSE OFF UPPER LOW) AND 2) ROTATING EWD THRU CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA. THE PA IMPULSE WILL CONTINUE SHIFT EWD THRU THE
MORNING AND MAINTAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY PRIMARILY OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL ALLEGHENIES...WHICH SHOULD BECOME
ENHANCED BY POST FRONTAL NW/UPSLOPE FLOW. LATEST HRRR CONFIRMS
THIS WHILE KEEPING MOST AREAS S/E OF THE I-99 CORRIDOR MAINLY DRY
THRU MID-LATE MORNING.
ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED
AND EVENTUALLY CLOSING OFF OVER PA BY THIS EVE/00Z.
MEANWHILE...SFC LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER BUFFALO NY WILL
TRANSFER ITS ENERGY TO COASTAL DEVELOPMENT NEAR OR JUST OFFSHORE
NJ AND THE DELMARVA. THE LATEST RAP SFC PRES FALLS ARE STARTING TO
SHOW THIS WITH -3 TO -4MB FALLS. DIFFERENCES START TO EMERGE IN
THE MODELS WITH THE SFC LOW TRACK/POSITION BY 22/12Z WITH THE
GFS/GEFS MEMBERS BEING WEST OF THE ECMWF/CMC ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.
RELATIVELY COOL AIR ALOFT ACCOMPANYING THE EVOLVING UPPER LEVEL
LOW WITH MID-LVL LAPSE RATES IN THE 6.5-7.0 C/KM RANGE...AND LG
SCALE LIFT GENERATED BY VORT MAXIMA PIVOTING OVER THE REGION
SHOULD PROMOTE INCREASED COVERAGE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY BY THE
AFTERNOON. HRRR SHOWS BULK OF SHOWERS OVER WRN PA THROUGH 18Z WITH
DEVELOPING SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL AND ERN SECTIONS LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE MODEL GUIDANCE PROGS WEAK INSTABILITY /CAPES
GENERALLY AOB 300 J/KG/ ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SERN ZONES
WHICH...WHEN COUPLED WITH THE STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES...MAY
PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW ISOLATED/EMBEDDED LOW-TOPPED TSTMS
TO FORM WITHIN A BROADER AREA OF SCT TO NMRS SHOWERS.
MAIN CHANGE TO DAY 1 MAX/MIN TEMPS WAS TO RAISE OVERNIGHT LOWS
GIVEN PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND 5-10KT SUSTAINED N-NW WINDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW PIVOTING
AND WRAPPING NWWD THROUGH 12Z THURS WITH SFC LOW BECOMING NEARLY
STACKED ABOUT 100-200 MILES SSE OF LONG ISLAND. THERE CONTINUES TO
BE SOME PLACEMENT ISSUES WITH THE SFC LOW WITH THE 00Z GFS/GEFS
AND 21Z SREF ALL REASONABLY WELL CLUSTERED. THE PREVIOUS TWO RUNS
OF THE ECMWF ARE SOUTH OF THIS CONSENSUS WITH THE 00Z NAM/CMC TO
THE EAST. A SUPERBLEND OF OP/ENS/WPC QPF SHOWS THE HIGHEST POPS
OVER THE ERN 1/3 OF THE CWA EARLY WED NEAR POSSIBLE ZONE OF WRAP-
AROUND PCPN...BEFORE TRENDING LOWER WED NGT INTO THURS. IT WILL
FEEL RATHER RAW WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND A CHILLY/GUSTY NLY WIND.
A 50/50 BLEND OF CONSENSUS AND BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS GUIDANCE
YIELDED SLIGHTLY LOWER DAYTIME HIGHS AND WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS.
THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD WILL START WITH THE NEW ENGLAND COASTAL STORM LIFTING
SLOWLY NEWD ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
THU INTO SAT. THIS LOW WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF CHILLY WRAP-AROUND
RAINS IN THE FCST FOR DAY 3 POSSIBLY INTO DAY 4 DEPENDING ON HOW
FAST THE STORM LIFTS OUT. THE KEY HERE LKLY LIES UPSTREAM WITH
STRONG SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO NRN CA. THIS ENERGY IS
EXPECTED TO SPLIT OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH NRN STREAM ENERGY
PROJECTED TO DIG SEWD THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS AND MOVE OFF THE
EAST COAST BY SAT NGT. THE 00Z NON NCEP DATA WANTS TO HANG ONTO
THE NW FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM A LITTLE LONGER THAN THE
GFS/GEFS WHICH SHOW SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. THIS SEEMS DUE TO MORE PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING
SEWD ACRS SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES DOWN THE
FRONT-SIDE OF A SUBTROPCIAL RIDGE MIGRATING EWD FROM AZ/NM INTO
TX. WITH THE FLOW ALOFT FCST TO TREND TOWARD LESS AMPLIFICATION
AND SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE IN TIME WITH A BROAD BELT OF
WESTERLIES EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC COAST INTO THE NATIONS
MIDSECTION...THE DOWNSTREAM PATTERN SHOULD EVENTUALLY UNDERGO SOME
RECONFIGURATION. THIS SHOULD SEND HEIGHTS RISING WHICH WOULD
SUPPORT MILDER TEMP TREND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THAT BEING
SAID...WITH THE PATTERN RECONFIGURATION TIED TO SMALLER SCALE
DISTURBANCES WHICH TEND TO BE RATHER NOISY AT THESE RANGES...THE
EVOLUTION OF THE CHANGE IN FLOW IS LIKELY TO BE HANDLED
DIFFERENTLY IN UPCOMING MODEL AND ENSEMBLE CYCLES.
THE TAKEHOME MESSAGE: WEATHER CONDITIONS LKLY TRENDING DRIER AND
MILDER FROM THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO 12Z TAF PACKAGE.
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
KEEP SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF CENTRAL PA
THIS MORNING. MOST OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS ACROSS THE SUSQUEHANNA
VALLEY HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE AREA. THE MAIN PROBLEM WILL BE LOW
CIGS IN SPOTS...MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR WEST. VISIBILITIES IN MOST
LOCATIONS ARE STILL GOOD.
BY LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON...SHOWERS WILL BE MORE
SCATTERED IN NATURE...AND MUCH OF THE AREA EAST OF THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS WILL BE VFR.
AS THE LOW REFORMS OFF THE EAST COAST LATER TODAY...LOWER CIGS
AND SHOWERS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD LATE.
THE AIRMASS WILL BE QUITE COLD ALOFT TODAY...THUS ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
NOT LOOKING AT REAL STRONG WINDS TODAY.
HOWEVER...AS THE LOW REFORMS OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT...WINDS
WILL PICK UP SOME.
THE SFC AND UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL KEEP CLOUDY...BREEZY...AND AT
TIMES WET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA INTO THU.
EXPECT SOME IMPROVEMENT ON FRIDAY...AS THE SYSTEM SLOWLY WORKS
EASTWARD.
OUTLOOK...
WED-FRI...LOW CIGS POSS W MTNS...MAINLY AT NIGHT/EARLY AM.
SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
550 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE EVOLVING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES WILL CONTINUE TO BRING COOL AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH MID-WEEK. SLOWLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH MILDER WEATHER
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A PAIR OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSES AT 09Z: 1)
DIGGING SWD THROUGH SRN ONTARIO (HELPING TO EVENTUALLY CARVE OUT
AND CLOSE OFF UPPER LOW) AND 2) ROTATING EWD THRU CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA. THE PA IMPULSE WILL CONTINUE SHIFT EWD THRU THE
MORNING AND MAINTAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY PRIMARILY OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL ALLEGHENIES...WHICH SHOULD BECOME
ENHANCED BY POST FRONTAL NW/UPSLOPE FLOW. LATEST HRRR CONFIRMS
THIS WHILE KEEPING MOST AREAS S/E OF THE I-99 CORRIDOR MAINLY DRY
THRU MID-LATE MORNING.
ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED
AND EVENTUALLY CLOSING OFF OVER PA BY THIS EVE/00Z.
MEANWHILE...SFC LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER BUFFALO NY WILL
TRANSFER ITS ENERGY TO COASTAL DEVELOPMENT NEAR OR JUST OFFSHORE
NJ AND THE DELMARVA. THE LATEST RAP SFC PRES FALLS ARE STARTING TO
SHOW THIS WITH -3 TO -4MB FALLS. DIFFERENCES START TO EMERGE IN
THE MODELS WITH THE SFC LOW TRACK/POSITION BY 22/12Z WITH THE
GFS/GEFS MEMBERS BEING WEST OF THE ECMWF/CMC ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.
RELATIVELY COOL AIR ALOFT ACCOMPANYING THE EVOLVING UPPER LEVEL
LOW WITH MID-LVL LAPSE RATES IN THE 6.5-7.0 C/KM RANGE...AND LG
SCALE LIFT GENERATED BY VORT MAXIMA PIVOTING OVER THE REGION
SHOULD PROMOTE INCREASED COVERAGE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY BY THE
AFTERNOON. HRRR SHOWS BULK OF SHOWERS OVER WRN PA THROUGH 18Z WITH
DEVELOPING SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL AND ERN SECTIONS LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE MODEL GUIDANCE PROGS WEAK INSTABILITY /CAPES
GENERALLY AOB 300 J/KG/ ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SERN ZONES
WHICH...WHEN COUPLED WITH THE STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES...MAY
PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW ISOLATED/EMBEDDED LOW-TOPPED TSTMS
TO FORM WITHIN A BROADER AREA OF SCT TO NMRS SHOWERS.
MAIN CHANGE TO DAY 1 MAX/MIN TEMPS WAS TO RAISE OVERNIGHT LOWS
GIVEN PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND 5-10KT SUSTAINED N-NW WINDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW PIVOTING
AND WRAPPING NWWD THROUGH 12Z THURS WITH SFC LOW BECOMING NEARLY
STACKED ABOUT 100-200 MILES SSE OF LONG ISLAND. THERE CONTINUES TO
BE SOME PLACEMENT ISSUES WITH THE SFC LOW WITH THE 00Z GFS/GEFS
AND 21Z SREF ALL REASONABLY WELL CLUSTERED. THE PREVIOUS TWO RUNS
OF THE ECMWF ARE SOUTH OF THIS CONSENSUS WITH THE 00Z NAM/CMC TO
THE EAST. A SUPERBLEND OF OP/ENS/WPC QPF SHOWS THE HIGHEST POPS
OVER THE ERN 1/3 OF THE CWA EARLY WED NEAR POSSIBLE ZONE OF WRAP-
AROUND PCPN...BEFORE TRENDING LOWER WED NGT INTO THURS. IT WILL
FEEL RATHER RAW WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND A CHILLY/GUSTY NLY WIND.
A 50/50 BLEND OF CONSENSUS AND BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS GUIDANCE
YIELDED SLIGHTLY LOWER DAYTIME HIGHS AND WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS.
THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD WILL START WITH THE NEW ENGLAND COASTAL STORM LIFTING
SLOWLY NEWD ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
THU INTO SAT. THIS LOW WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF CHILLY WRAP-AROUND
RAINS IN THE FCST FOR DAY 3 POSSIBLY INTO DAY 4 DEPENDING ON HOW
FAST THE STORM LIFTS OUT. THE KEY HERE LKLY LIES UPSTREAM WITH
STRONG SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO NRN CA. THIS ENERGY IS
EXPECTED TO SPLIT OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH NRN STREAM ENERGY
PROJECTED TO DIG SEWD THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS AND MOVE OFF THE
EAST COAST BY SAT NGT. THE 00Z NON NCEP DATA WANTS TO HANG ONTO
THE NW FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM A LITTLE LONGER THAN THE
GFS/GEFS WHICH SHOW SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. THIS SEEMS DUE TO MORE PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING
SEWD ACRS SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES DOWN THE
FRONT-SIDE OF A SUBTROPCIAL RIDGE MIGRATING EWD FROM AZ/NM INTO
TX. WITH THE FLOW ALOFT FCST TO TREND TOWARD LESS AMPLIFICATION
AND SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE IN TIME WITH A BROAD BELT OF
WESTERLIES EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC COAST INTO THE NATIONS
MIDSECTION...THE DOWNSTREAM PATTERN SHOULD EVENTUALLY UNDERGO SOME
RECONFIGURATION. THIS SHOULD SEND HEIGHTS RISING WHICH WOULD
SUPPORT MILDER TEMP TREND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THAT BEING
SAID...WITH THE PATTERN RECONFIGURATION TIED TO SMALLER SCALE
DISTURBANCES WHICH TEND TO BE RATHER NOISY AT THESE RANGES...THE
EVOLUTION OF THE CHANGE IN FLOW IS LIKELY TO BE HANDLED
DIFFERENTLY IN UPCOMING MODEL AND ENSEMBLE CYCLES.
THE TAKEHOME MESSAGE: WEATHER CONDITIONS LKLY TRENDING DRIER AND
MILDER FROM THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAIN CHANGE TO 09Z TAF PACKAGE WAS TO BACK OFF ON LOWER CIGS
AND VISIBILITIES SOME...GIVEN TRENDS SO FAR. LOW CONDITIONS
MAINLY LIMITED TO BFD AND JST SO FAR.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
KEEP SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF CENTRAL PA
THIS MORNING. MOST OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS ACROSS THE SUSQUEHANNA
VALLEY HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE AREA. THE MAIN PROBLEM WILL BE LOW
CIGS IN SPOTS...MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR WEST. VISIBILITIES IN MOST
LOCATIONS ARE STILL GOOD.
BY LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON...SHOWERS WILL BE MORE
SCATTERED IN NATURE...AND MUCH OF THE AREA EAST OF THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS WILL BE VFR.
AS THE LOW REFORMS OFF THE EAST COAST LATER TODAY...LOWER CIGS
AND SHOWERS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD LATE.
THE AIRMASS WILL BE QUITE COLD ALOFT TODAY...THUS ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
NOT LOOKING AT REAL STRONG WINDS TODAY.
HOWEVER...AS THE LOW REFORMS OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT...WINDS
WILL PICK UP SOME.
THE SFC AND UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL KEEP CLOUDY...BREEZY...AND AT
TIMES WET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA INTO THU.
EXPECT SOME IMPROVEMENT ON FRIDAY...AS THE SYSTEM SLOWLY WORKS
EASTWARD.
OUTLOOK...
WED-FRI...LOW CIGS POSS W MTNS...MAINLY AT NIGHT/EARLY AM.
SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
459 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE EVOLVING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES WILL CONTINUE TO BRING COOL AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH MID-WEEK. SLOWLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH MILDER WEATHER
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A PAIR OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSES AT 09Z: 1)
DIGGING SWD THROUGH SRN ONTARIO (HELPING TO EVENTUALLY CARVE OUT
AND CLOSE OFF UPPER LOW) AND 2) ROTATING EWD THRU CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA. THE PA IMPULSE WILL CONTINUE SHIFT EWD THRU THE
MORNING AND MAINTAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY PRIMARILY OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL ALLEGHENIES...WHICH SHOULD BECOME
ENHANCED BY POST FRONTAL NW/UPSLOPE FLOW. LATEST HRRR CONFIRMS
THIS WHILE KEEPING MOST AREAS S/E OF THE I-99 CORRIDOR MAINLY DRY
THRU MID-LATE MORNING.
ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED
AND EVENTUALLY CLOSING OFF OVER PA BY THIS EVE/00Z.
MEANWHILE...SFC LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER BUFFALO NY WILL
TRANSFER ITS ENERGY TO COASTAL DEVELOPMENT NEAR OR JUST OFFSHORE
NJ AND THE DELMARVA. THE LATEST RAP SFC PRES FALLS ARE STARTING TO
SHOW THIS WITH -3 TO -4MB FALLS. DIFFERENCES START TO EMERGE IN
THE MODELS WITH THE SFC LOW TRACK/POSITION BY 22/12Z WITH THE
GFS/GEFS MEMBERS BEING WEST OF THE ECMWF/CMC ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.
RELATIVELY COOL AIR ALOFT ACCOMPANYING THE EVOLVING UPPER LEVEL
LOW WITH MID-LVL LAPSE RATES IN THE 6.5-7.0 C/KM RANGE...AND LG
SCALE LIFT GENERATED BY VORT MAXIMA PIVOTING OVER THE REGION
SHOULD PROMOTE INCREASED COVERAGE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY BY THE
AFTERNOON. HRRR SHOWS BULK OF SHOWERS OVER WRN PA THROUGH 18Z WITH
DEVELOPING SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL AND ERN SECTIONS LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE MODEL GUIDANCE PROGS WEAK INSTABILITY /CAPES
GENERALLY AOB 300 J/KG/ ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SERN ZONES
WHICH...WHEN COUPLED WITH THE STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES...MAY
PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW ISOLATED/EMBEDDED LOW-TOPPED TSTMS
TO FORM WITHIN A BROADER AREA OF SCT TO NMRS SHOWERS.
MAIN CHANGE TO DAY 1 MAX/MIN TEMPS WAS TO RAISE OVERNIGHT LOWS
GIVEN PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND 5-10KT SUSTAINED N-NW WINDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW PIVOTING
AND WRAPPING NWWD THROUGH 12Z THURS WITH SFC LOW BECOMING NEARLY
STACKED ABOUT 100-200 MILES SSE OF LONG ISLAND. THERE CONTINUES TO
BE SOME PLACEMENT ISSUES WITH THE SFC LOW WITH THE 00Z GFS/GEFS
AND 21Z SREF ALL REASONABLY WELL CLUSTERED. THE PREVIOUS TWO RUNS
OF THE ECMWF ARE SOUTH OF THIS CONSENSUS WITH THE 00Z NAM/CMC TO
THE EAST. A SUPERBLEND OF OP/ENS/WPC QPF SHOWS THE HIGHEST POPS
OVER THE ERN 1/3 OF THE CWA EARLY WED NEAR POSSIBLE ZONE OF WRAP-
AROUND PCPN...BEFORE TRENDING LOWER WED NGT INTO THURS. IT WILL
FEEL RATHER RAW WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND A CHILLY/GUSTY NLY WIND.
A 50/50 BLEND OF CONSENSUS AND BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS GUIDANCE
YIELDED SLIGHTLY LOWER DAYTIME HIGHS AND WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS.
THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD WILL START WITH THE NEW ENGLAND COASTAL STORM LIFTING
SLOWLY NEWD ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
THU INTO SAT. THIS LOW WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF CHILLY WRAP-AROUND
RAINS IN THE FCST FOR DAY 3 POSSIBLY INTO DAY 4 DEPENDING ON HOW
FAST THE STORM LIFTS OUT. THE KEY HERE LKLY LIES UPSTREAM WITH
STRONG SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO NRN CA. THIS ENERGY IS
EXPECTED TO SPLIT OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH NRN STREAM ENERGY
PROJECTED TO DIG SEWD THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS AND MOVE OFF THE
EAST COAST BY SAT NGT. THE 00Z NON NCEP DATA WANTS TO HANG ONTO
THE NW FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM A LITTLE LONGER THAN THE
GFS/GEFS WHICH SHOW SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. THIS SEEMS DUE TO MORE PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING
SEWD ACRS SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES DOWN THE
FRONT-SIDE OF A SUBTROPCIAL RIDGE MIGRATING EWD FROM AZ/NM INTO
TX. WITH THE FLOW ALOFT FCST TO TREND TOWARD LESS AMPLIFICATION
AND SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE IN TIME WITH A BROAD BELT OF
WESTERLIES EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC COAST INTO THE NATIONS
MIDSECTION...THE DOWNSTREAM PATTERN SHOULD EVENTUALLY UNDERGO SOME
RECONFIGURATION. THIS SHOULD SEND HEIGHTS RISING WHICH WOULD
SUPPORT MILDER TEMP TREND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THAT BEING
SAID...WITH THE PATTERN RECONFIGURATION TIED TO SMALLER SCALE
DISTURBANCES WHICH TEND TO BE RATHER NOISY AT THESE RANGES...THE
EVOLUTION OF THE CHANGE IN FLOW IS LIKELY TO BE HANDLED
DIFFERENTLY IN UPCOMING MODEL AND ENSEMBLE CYCLES.
THE TAKEHOME MESSAGE: WEATHER CONDITIONS LKLY TRENDING DRIER AND
MILDER FROM THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
KEEP SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF CENTRAL PA
THIS MORNING. MOST OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS ACROSS THE SUSQUEHANNA
VALLEY HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE AREA. THE MAIN PROBLEM WILL BE LOW
CIGS IN SPOTS...MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR WEST. VISIBILITIES IN MOST
LOCATIONS ARE STILL GOOD.
BY LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON...SHOWERS WILL BE MORE
SCATTERED IN NATURE...AND MUCH OF THE AREA EAST OF THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS WILL BE VFR.
AS THE LOW REFORMS OFF THE EAST COAST LATER TODAY...LOWER CIGS
AND SHOWERS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD LATE.
THE AIRMASS WILL BE QUITE COLD ALOFT TODAY...THUS ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
NOT LOOKING AT REAL STRONG WINDS TODAY.
HOWEVER...AS THE LOW REFORMS OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT...WINDS
WILL PICK UP SOME.
THE SFC AND UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL KEEP CLOUDY...BREEZY...AND AT
TIMES WET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA INTO THU.
EXPECT SOME IMPROVEMENT ON FRIDAY...AS THE SYSTEM SLOWLY WORKS
EASTWARD.
OUTLOOK...
WED-FRI...LOW CIGS POSS W MTNS...MAINLY AT NIGHT/EARLY AM.
SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
329 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE EVOLVING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES WILL CONTINUE TO BRING COOL AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH MID-WEEK. SLOWLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH MILDER WEATHER
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A PAIR OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSES MOVING
THROUGH SRN ONTARIO AND SW PENNSYLVANIA AT 06Z. THE PA IMPULSE WILL
SHIFT EWD THRU THE MORNING AND MAINTAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE
WESTERN ALLEGHENIES...WHICH SHOULD BECOME ENHANCED BY POST FRONTAL
NW/UPSLOPE FLOW. LATEST HRRR INDICATES BAND OF SHOWERS WILL EXIT
THE ERN LWR SUSQ VALLEY BY 07Z WITH MUCH OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE KEYSTONE STATE STAYING MAINLY DRY
INTO MID MORNING.
ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED
AND EVENTUALLY CLOSING OFF OVER PA BY THIS EVE/00Z.
MEANWHILE...SFC LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED JUST NORTH OF BUFFALO NY
OVER LAKE ONTARIO WILL TRANSFER ITS ENERGY TO COASTAL DEVELOPMENT
NEAR OR JUST OFFSHORE NJ AND THE DELMARVA. DIFFERENCES START TO
EMERGE IN THE MODELS BY 22/12Z WITH THE GFS/GEFS MEMBERS BEING
WEST OF THE ECMWF/CMC ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.
RELATIVELY COOL AIR ALOFT ACCOMPANYING THE EVOLVING UPPER LEVEL
LOW WITH MID-LVL LAPSE RATES IN THE 6.5-7.0 C/KM RANGE...AND LG
SCALE LIFT GENERATED BY VORT MAXIMA PIVOTING OVER THE REGION
SHOULD PROMOTE INCREASED COVERAGE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY BY THE
AFTERNOON. HRRR SHOWS BULK OF SHOWERS OVER WRN PA THROUGH 18Z WITH
DEVELOPING SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL AND ERN SECTIONS LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE MODEL GUIDANCE PROGS WEAK INSTABILITY /CAPES
GENERALLY AOB 300 J/KG/ ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SERN ZONES
WHICH...WHEN COUPLED WITH THE STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES...MAY
PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW ISOLATED/EMBEDDED LOW-TOPPED TSTMS
TO FORM WITHIN A BROADER AREA OF SCT TO NMRS SHOWERS.
MAIN CHANGE TO DAY 1 MAX/MIN TEMPS WAS TO RAISE OVERNIGHT LOWS
GIVEN PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND 5-10KT SUSTAINED N-NW WINDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW PIVOTING
AND WRAPPING NWWD THROUGH 12Z THURS WITH SFC LOW BECOMING NEARLY
STACKED ABOUT 100-200 MILES SSE OF LONG ISLAND. THERE CONTINUES TO
BE SOME PLACEMENT ISSUES WITH THE SFC LOW WITH THE 00Z GFS/GEFS
AND 21Z SREF ALL REASONABLY WELL CLUSTERED. THE PREVIOUS TWO RUNS
OF THE ECMWF ARE SOUTH OF THIS CONSENSUS WITH THE 00Z NAM/CMC TO
THE EAST. A SUPERBLEND OF OP/ENS/WPC QPF SHOWS THE HIGHEST POPS
OVER THE ERN 1/3 OF THE CWA EARLY WED NEAR POSSIBLE ZONE OF WRAP-
AROUND PCPN...BEFORE TRENDING LOWER WED NGT INTO THURS. IT WILL
FEEL RATHER RAW WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND A CHILLY/GUSTY NLY WIND.
A 50/50 BLEND OF CONSENSUS AND BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS GUIDANCE
YIELDED SLIGHTLY LOWER DAYTIME HIGHS AND WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS.
THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE OVERALL PATTERN.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE POSITION OF THE STORM WILL KEEP LOTS OF MARITIME AIR FLOWING
IN FROM THE NORTH/EAST AND KEEP POPS PRETTY HIGH ON WED...BUT SOME
IMPROVEMENT IS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE NRN HALF - ESP THE NE. BUT THE MOISTURE WILL
WRAP AROUND THE STORM COMPLETELY AT TIMES. THUS...A MOIST UPSLOPE
FLOW IN THE WRN MTNS WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS IN PLACE WITH
SHOWER CHCS HIGH THERE AS WELL DURING MID-WEEK. AS A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS UNDER THE UPPER SYSTEM OFF THE NJ/NY COAST...NORTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE AND BRING A PERIOD OF BREEZY
CONDITIONS WED INTO THU...AND POSS EVEN INTO FRI.
EVENTUALLY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND CONCURRENT UPPER RIDGING
SHOULD LEAD TO A DRY WEEKEND WITH WESTERLY FLOW AND MILDER
TEMPERATURES ON SAT. THERE COULD BE A WEAK AND DRY FRONT DROP
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MID-ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY...WHICH MAY
PRODUCE WIDELY SCT SHOWERS...BUT IT IS NOT WORTH A POP AT THIS
POINT. TEMPS MAY THEN DIP A FEW DEGS FROM SAT-SUN. OTHERWISE...
GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW LOOKS TO BE THE RULE AT THE LONGEST OF
RANGES IN THE LOCAL FORECAST WITH CHANCE FOR JUST WEAK WAVES TO
IMPACT CENTRAL PA.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
KEEP SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF CENTRAL PA
THIS MORNING. MOST OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS ACROSS THE SUSQUEHANNA
VALLEY HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE AREA. THE MAIN PROBLEM WILL BE LOW
CIGS IN SPOTS...MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR WEST. VISIBILITIES IN MOST
LOCATIONS ARE STILL GOOD.
BY LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON...SHOWERS WILL BE MORE
SCATTERED IN NATURE...AND MUCH OF THE AREA EAST OF THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS WILL BE VFR.
AS THE LOW REFORMS OFF THE EAST COAST LATER TODAY...LOWER CIGS
AND SHOWERS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD LATE.
THE AIRMASS WILL BE QUITE COLD ALOFT TODAY...THUS ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
NOT LOOKING AT REAL STRONG WINDS TODAY.
HOWEVER...AS THE LOW REFORMS OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT...WINDS
WILL PICK UP SOME.
THE SFC AND UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL KEEP CLOUDY...BREEZY...AND AT
TIMES WET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA INTO THU.
EXPECT SOME IMPROVEMENT ON FRIDAY...AS THE SYSTEM SLOWLY WORKS
EASTWARD.
OUTLOOK...
WED-FRI...LOW CIGS POSS W MTNS...MAINLY AT NIGHT/EARLY AM.
SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
257 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE EVOLVING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES WILL CONTINUE TO BRING COOL AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH MID-WEEK. SLOWLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH MILDER WEATHER
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A PAIR OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSES MOVING
THROUGH SRN ONTARIO AND SW PENNSYLVANIA AT 06Z. THE PA IMPULSE WILL
SHIFT EWD THRU THE MORNING AND MAINTAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE
WESTERN ALLEGHENIES...WHICH SHOULD BECOME ENHANCED BY POST FRONTAL
NW/UPSLOPE FLOW. LATEST HRRR INDICATES BAND OF SHOWERS WILL EXIT
THE ERN LWR SUSQ VALLEY BY 07Z WITH MUCH OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE KEYSTONE STATE STAYING MAINLY DRY
INTO MID MORNING.
ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY BECOMING BETTERORGANIZED
AND EVENTUALLY CLOSING OFF OVER PA BY THIS EVE/00Z.
MEANWHILE...SFC LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED JUST NORTH OF BUFFALO NY
OVER LAKE ONTARIO WILL TRANSFER ITS ENERGY TO COASTAL DEVELOPMENT
NEAR OR JUST OFFSHORE NJ AND THE DELMARVA. DIFFERENCES START TO
EMERGE IN THE MODELS BY 22/12Z WITH THE GFS/GEFS MEMBERS BEING
WEST OF THE ECMWF/CMC ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.
RELATIVELY COOL AIR ALOFT ACCOMPANYING THE EVOLVING UPPER LEVEL
LOW WITH MID-LVL LAPSE RATES IN THE 6.5-7.0 C/KM RANGE...AND LG
SCALE LIFT GENERATED BY VORT MAXIMA PIVOTING OVER THE REGION
SHOULD PROMOTE INCREASED COVERAGE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY BY THE
AFTERNOON. HRRR SHOWS BULK OF SHOWERS OVER WRN PA THROUGH 18Z WITH
DEVELOPING SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL AND ERN SECTIONS LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE MODEL GUIDANCE PROGS WEAK INSTABILITY /CAPES
GENERALLY AOB 300 J/KG/ ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SERN ZONES
WHICH...WHEN COUPLED WITH THE STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES...MAY
PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW ISOLATED/EMBEDDED LOW-TOPPED TSTMS
TO FORM WITHIN A BROADER AREA OF SCT TO NMRS SHOWERS.
MAIN CHANGE TO DAY 1 MAX/MIN TEMPS WAS TO RAISE OVERNIGHT LOWS
GIVEN PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND 5-10KT SUSTAINED N-NW WINDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW PIVOTING
AND WRAPPING NWWD THROUGH 12Z THURS WITH SFC LOW BECOMING NEARLY
STACKED ABOUT 100-200 MILES SSE OF LONG ISLAND. THERE CONTINUES TO
BE SOME PLACEMENT ISSUES WITH THE SFC LOW WITH THE 00Z GFS/GEFS
AND 21Z SREF ALL REASONABLY WELL CLUSTERED. THE PREVIOUS TWO RUNS
OF THE ECMWF ARE SOUTH OF THIS CONSENSUS WITH THE 00Z NAM/CMC TO
THE EAST. A SUPERBLEND OF OP/ENS/WPC QPF SHOWS THE HIGHEST POPS
OVER THE ERN 1/3 OF THE CWA EARLY WED NEAR POSSIBLE ZONE OF WRAP-
AROUND PCPN...BEFORE TRENDING LOWER WED NGT INTO THURS. IT WILL
FEEL RATHER RAW WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND A CHILLY/GUSTY NLY WIND.
A 50/50 BLEND OF CONSENSUS AND BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS GUIDANCE
YIELDED SLIGHTLY LOWER DAYTIME HIGHS AND WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS.
THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE OVERALL PATTERN.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE POSITION OF THE STORM WILL KEEP LOTS OF MARITIME AIR FLOWING
IN FROM THE NORTH/EAST AND KEEP POPS PRETTY HIGH ON WED...BUT SOME
IMPROVEMENT IS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE NRN HALF - ESP THE NE. BUT THE MOISTURE WILL
WRAP AROUND THE STORM COMPLETELY AT TIMES. THUS...A MOIST UPSLOPE
FLOW IN THE WRN MTNS WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS IN PLACE WITH
SHOWER CHCS HIGH THERE AS WELL DURING MID-WEEK. AS A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS UNDER THE UPPER SYSTEM OFF THE NJ/NY COAST...NORTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE AND BRING A PERIOD OF BREEZY
CONDITIONS WED INTO THU...AND POSS EVEN INTO FRI.
EVENTUALLY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND CONCURRENT UPPER RIDGING
SHOULD LEAD TO A DRY WEEKEND WITH WESTERLY FLOW AND MILDER
TEMPERATURES ON SAT. THERE COULD BE A WEAK AND DRY FRONT DROP
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MID-ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY...WHICH MAY
PRODUCE WIDELY SCT SHOWERS...BUT IT IS NOT WORTH A POP AT THIS
POINT. TEMPS MAY THEN DIP A FEW DEGS FROM SAT-SUN. OTHERWISE...
GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW LOOKS TO BE THE RULE AT THE LONGEST OF
RANGES IN THE LOCAL FORECAST WITH CHANCE FOR JUST WEAK WAVES TO
IMPACT CENTRAL PA.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE GRT LKS WILL BRING DETERIORATING
FLYING CONDS TO CENTRAL PA TONIGHT IN THE FORM OF LOWERING CIGS
AND SHOWERS. MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT WILL BE DEVELOPING LOW CIGS
AT KBFD. MDLS SUGGEST AN INCREASINGLY MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
ASCENDING THE NW MTNS WILL CAUSE CIGS TO FALL INTO THE IFR RANGE
AT KBFD OVERNIGHT. ELSEWHERE...NO WORSE THAN MVFR CONDS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT.
AS COLD FRONT PUSHES THRU TUE AM...WIND WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHERLY
TO NWRLY. THE RESULTING UPSLOPE FLOW OVR THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS WILL
PLACE KJST AT RISK FOR IFR CIGS BTWN 11Z-15Z. EXPECT RISING CIGS
EVERYWHERE BY AFTN...AS MODEST DIURNAL WARMING OCCURS WITHIN THE
SFC TO 1KM LAYER. BY AFTN...MDL SOUNDINGS AND MOS GUIDANCE SUPPORT
MVFR CIGS AT KBFD/KJST...WITH PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDS FURTHER
EAST. HOWEVER...COOL TEMPS ALOFT WILL CREATE AN UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL LEAD TO NUMEROUS PM SHRA AND EVEN A POSS
TSRA. ANY OF THESE SHRA/TSRA COULD PRODUCE A BRIEF DIP TO IFR
VSBY.
SCT SHOWERS OF DIMINISHING INTENSITY WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
REGION TUE NIGHT...AS SLOW MOVING LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVES THRU THE
AREA. HOWEVER...BIGGEST AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL OF
LOW CIGS REDEVELOPING TUE NIGHT AT KBFD/KJST...THE RESULT OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING OF THE SFC-1KM LAYER AND UPSLOPE FLOW. DOWNSLOPING NW
FLOW SHOULD YIELD MUCH MORE FAVORABLE CONDS FURTHER EAST.
OUTLOOK...
WED-FRI...LOW CIGS POSS W MTNS...MAINLY AT NIGHT/EARLY AM.
SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
854 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
.DISCUSSION...JUST A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE
FIRST PERIOD GRIDS. WEAK ECHOES OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS WITH
UPPER JET PROBABLY WILL NOT REACH THE GROUND. HOWEVER...ONLY HAVE
20 POPS GOING AND HRRR IS SHOWING SOME WEAK ECHOES NEAR THE AREA
TONIGHT SO WILL NOT REMOVE. ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER A BIT SINCE MOST
CLOUDS ARE EITHER WEST OF NORTH OF AREA. LEFT REMAINDER OF
FORECAST ALONE FOR NOW...AS OVERALL CONDITIONS SHOULD BE QUIET.
PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED. MAY NEED TO TONE THE WINDS DOWN FOR THE
COASTAL WATER FORECAST SINCE MOST AREAS ARE LESS THAN 15 KNOTS AT
THIS TIME.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/
DISCUSSION...FOR 00Z TAFS.
AVIATION...
OTHER THAN PSBLY SOME BRIEF MVFR FOG AT THE INLAND SITES LATE
TONIGHT VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. MID
LEVEL MSTR WILL INCRS AHEAD OF A WEAK DISTURBANCE RESULTING IN
SOME CLOUDS IN THE 10-15K FOOT LAYER.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...PER THE GOES
SOUNDER IMAGERY...MOISTURE AXIS REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE RIO
GRANDE THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH NO PRECIP IS CURRENTLY
FALLING...WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHC ALONG THE RIO GRANDE THROUGH
TONIGHT DUE TO AN APPROACHING UPPER JET AND SHORT WAVE ALONG WITH
INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. ONLY HAVE 5-10 POPS THE
REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM AS THE WEAKENING UPPER DISTURBANCE
SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION AND DRIER AIR FILTERS FARTHER W AND S
ACROSS S TX. ONLY WEATHER BEYOND TODAY MAY BE SOME LIGHT PATCHY
FOG THU MORNING BUT WITH VISIBILITIES AT 4SM OR BETTER...SO DO NOT
HAVE FOG IN THE FCST FOR TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG MAY BE MORE OF AN
ISSUE THU NIGHT/FRI MORNING WITH MUCH DRIER MID AND UPPER LEVELS
ACROSS THE REGION. DUE TO THE DRIER AIRMASS...SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED FOR THU WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MIN
TEMPS. A GENERALLY WEAK TO MOD EAST WIND ACROSS S TX THIS
AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT BECOMING VRB...BUT GENERALLY NE.
THEN A REPEAT IS EXPECTED ON THU AND THU NIGHT. OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS...A MODERATE E TO NE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT THEN WEAKEN
THROUGH THU AND THU NIGHT. A MOD RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...HOWEVER IF WINDS DIMINISH AS
EXPECTED...THE RIP CURRENT RISK MAY BE LOWER ON THU.
LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD
LARGE UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER THE STATE...BRINGING NORTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT AND DRIER CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO
ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH LIGHT WINDS OVER LAND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
UPPER LVL RIDGE BEGINS FLATTENING SUNDAY EVENING AS UPPER LVL TROUGH
AXIS STARTS DIGGING DOWN FROM THE ROCKIES AND SENDING A COLD FRONT
DOWN INTO TEXAS. MODELS STILL DIVERGING ON TIMING AND LOCATION
BEFORE BOUNDARY WASHES OUT. THIS RUN OF THE ECMWF MORE SWIFTLY
BRINGS THE FRONT THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS JUST AT THE END OF THE PERIOD
WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE FRONT STALLED AND THEN WASHING OUT IN
NORTHERN TEXAS. ALSO...THE GFS IS NO LONGER SHOWING THE SPORADIC
STRONG LOW/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMING OVER THE GULF AS IT WAS TRYING
TO SPIN UP IN THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS...RATHER KEEPING A WEAK/BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF...CLOSER TO THE ECMWF. FOR THE TIME
KEPT POPS OUT OF THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT MAY NEED TO ADD
ISOLATED CHANCE AT LEAST FOR THE DAY 8 PERIOD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
ZONES BASED ON TIMING AND POSITION OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT GETS
CLOSER IN TIME.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 67 84 64 84 63 / 10 10 10 10 0
VICTORIA 60 85 59 86 60 / 10 10 10 10 0
LAREDO 68 86 66 88 65 / 20 10 10 10 0
ALICE 64 86 62 87 62 / 10 10 10 10 0
ROCKPORT 69 82 67 83 66 / 10 10 10 10 0
COTULLA 65 86 63 89 63 / 10 10 10 10 0
KINGSVILLE 65 86 64 86 62 / 10 10 10 10 0
NAVY CORPUS 72 83 69 82 68 / 10 10 10 10 0
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
GW/86...SHORT TERM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BROWNSVILLE TX
1252 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014
.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...BRIEF LIGHT SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING AS GULF MOISTURE
SURGES INLAND WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW. THE SHOWERS ARE MOVING EAST
BUT WILL NOT PRODUCE ANY SIGNIFICANT ISSUES TO THE TERMINALS DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CEILINGS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 3000 FT THROUGH
THE NIGHT WITH NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED BUT COULD LOWER TO MVFR IN
THE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD EARLY AROUND SUNRISE. THE EAST WINDS WILL
BECOME MODERATE WITH BETTER CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...CONVECTION IS WANING AND SHOULD DISSIPATE BETWEEN
01-03Z. AS THE CONVECTION ENDS CUMULUS TO TEMPORARILY DISSIPATE AS
WELL HOWEVER WITH A CONTINUED INFLUX OF GULF OF MOISTURE WITH A
NORTHEAST TO EAST WIND PERIODIC SCT TO POSSIBLE BKN VFR CLOUD
COVER IS EXPECTED BUT COULD LOWER APPROACHING MVFR LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF MVFR CIGS AROUND
SUNRISE TUESDAY WHICH MIGHT BE MENTIONED IN THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE.
THERE REMAINS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR TUESDAY LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS REMAIN EAST NORTHEAST BETWEEN 5 AND 10
KNOTS TONIGHT AND 10 TO 14 KNOTS TUESDAY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/
SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
BRO RADAR BEGINNING TO LIGHT UP WITH MAINLY SHOWER ACTIVITY
`SHOTGUNNED` ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE
VALLEY ATTM. SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH A LITTLE DIFFLUENCE IN
THE UPPER LEVELS WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND ANOTHER
LOW OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. MORNING SOUNDING WAS MOIST WITH A PWAT
OF 1.84 INCHES AND DECENT MOISTURE UP TO 500 MB. HRRR HAS A GOOD
HANDLE ON THE SITUATION WHICH PROGRESSES MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE BETTER POPS
NORTH OF THE VALLEY TRANSITIONING TO ZAPATA/STARR COUNTIES AFTER
SUNSET.
EXPECTING A REPEAT OF POPS FOR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. CONFINED POPS TO
OUR NORTHERN SECTIONS OF GULF WATERS TOWARDS DAWN THEN MOVE THAT
AREA INLAND IN THE MORNING HOURS. BETTER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE IN THE
THE RANCHLANDS TUESDAY AND HAVE TRIMMED POPS OUT OF THE VALLEY UNTIL
LATER TUESDAY. COVERAGE MAY NOT BE AS GREAT AS TODAY DUE TO DRIER
AIR MOVING INTO THE 850-700MB LAYER. LESS CLOUDS AND BETTER MIXING
OF LL DRY AIR LED ME TO INCREASE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES IN THE VALLEY
TUESDAY WHICH MOS GUIDANCE SUPPORTS AS WELL /3-5 DEGREES OVER GOING
FORECAST/. KEPT HIGHS AS IS NORTH OF THE VALLEY WITH CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS. /55/
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST SHOULD BRING A RETURN TO DRIER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS WE TURN OFF THE ATMOSPHERIC
SPIGOT.
EYES WILL REMAIN FOCUSED ON THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE AS WE HEAD INTO THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS OUR REGION
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH A WEAKENING EASTERLY FLOW HELPING TO KEEP
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HOVERING CLOSE TO THE 2 INCH MARK. WITH A
WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH EMANATING TOWARD THE LOWER TEXAS COAST
FROM THE LOW...I EXPECT ENOUGH FORCING TO BE IN PLACE TO KEEP AT
LEAST AN ISOLATED SMATTERING OF SHOWERS AROUND FOR THE MORNING HOURS.
THE INFLUENCE OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE LOW SHOULD LESSEN AT
MID-WEEK...AS IT STARTS SLIDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF.
WINDS SHOULD BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY AS SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS
ACROSS THE OHIO AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO DRY FROM THE NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
GRADUALLY GET SHOVED SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES.
AS SUCH...THE GREATEST ODDS OF SEEING CONVECTION OVER EASTERN AREAS
SHOULD BE IN THE MORNING HOURS. LOCALES OVER OUR MORE WESTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN AREAS COULD SEE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES
HOLDING ON INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE ODDS OF SEEING STORMS IN MOST
PLACES SHOULD BE LOW...GIVEN WEAKENING AMOUNTS OF SYNOPTIC SCALE
FORCING AND THAT THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE SEEN AT THE
TIME OF DAY WHEN THERE`S A DIURNAL MINIMUM IN INSTABILITY. STILL
THOUGH...IT CANNOT BE DISCOUNTED BY AFTERNOON.
IN ADDITION TO THE RAIN PROBLEM...WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME COASTAL FLOODING AT MID-WEEK. ROUGH SWELLS FROM
THE EAST-NORTHEAST WILL LIKELY COMBINE WITH HIGHER THAN NORMAL
ASTRONMICAL TIDES TO YIELD THE THREAT DURING THE WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY
TIME FRAME. STAY TUNED.
ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD END BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THANKS TO THE
COMBINATION OF A STRENGTHENING RIDGE ALOFT AND (REALLY) DRIER AIR
MOVES SOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE. RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY
ACROSS MID-AMERICA FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE THE PACIFIC COAST.
GIVEN THE EXPECTED STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE BY THIS WEEKEND AND AMPLE
SUNSHINE...FORECAST TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RAISED A FEW DEGREES WITH
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. THERE`S STILL A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THINGS
DURING THE DAY 5 THROUGH 7 TIME PERIOD THOUGH...AS SOIL MOISTURE
FROM ANY RECENT RAINFALL MAY TEMPER HIGHS JUST A BIT. IN ADDITION
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL LIKELY WEAKEN BY SUNDAY OR MONDAY...AS THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NATION`S MIDSECTION.
THANKS TO WPC AND WFO CORPUS CHRISTI FOR COLLABORATION TODAY. /53/
MARINE...
NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
INCREASING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND GRADUALLY BUILDING SEAS OVER THE
FAR OFFSHORE WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE
SCEC CATEGORY TUESDAY NIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD AS WELL. /55/
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED HEADING INTO MID-WEEK THANKS
TO A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE MARINE AREA. SLIGHTLY
DIMINISHING WIND SPEEDS MAY ALLOW ANY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO BE
DROPPED AT SOME POINT DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...BUT SMALL CRAFT
WILL LIKELY NEED TO CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. INCREASED RIDGING OVER THE REGION FOR THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK SHOULD RESULT IN MORE MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. /53/
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV
67/66
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1144 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014
.UPDATE...
MADE A QUICK UPDATE TO THE GRIDS AND LEGACY TEXT PRODUCTS TO
REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS. UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION CLEARLY EVIDENT IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY JUST WEST OF EL PASO AT THE MOMENT. CONVECTIVE
TRENDS HAVE DECREASED MARKEDLY AND OVERALL UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS
DIMINISHING. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS OVER HUDSPETH COUNTY WHERE AN
AREA OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE MCV PERSISTS. WATER VAPOR AND MODEL
DATA SUGGEST THIS IS IN AN AREA OF PVA AHEAD OF A VORT LOBE EAST
OF THE MAIN UPPER LOW...MOVING TO THE NORTH. THIS AREA OF SHOWERS
SHOULD PERSIST FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS...SO INCREASED THE POPS FOR
THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF HUDSPETH COUNTY. COULD GET GRAZED BY A
SPOTTY SHOWER OVER EL PASO COUNTY AS WELL.
KEPT POPS AROUND 20 FOR MOST AREAS EXCEPT 30S IN THE GILA AND
CATEGORICAL POPS IN HUDSPETH COUNTY...TAPERING DOWN TO 30S/40S
OVER THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS.
WITH LIGHT LOW-LEVEL EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW...COULD GET UPSLOPE
CLOUDS "RUNNING AGROUND" ALONG THE EAST SLOPES AND MAIN RIDGE OF
THE SACRAMENTOS OVERNIGHT...SO INTRODUCED PATCHY FOG IN THAT AREA.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014/
SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE NEW MEXICO BOOTHEEL WILL LIFT OUT
NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW MEXICO ON TUESDAY AND WEAKEN. THIS WILL ALLOW
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE PERSISTS. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH QUICKLY FOLLOWS BEHIND THIS
FIRST LOW AND WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF RAIN ON WEDNESDAY. THE
RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST THE LATTER PORTION OF WEDNESDAY AS
THAT UPPER TROUGH EVENTUALLY PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN A BIT BELOW NORMAL. ON THURSDAY HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
BUILDS OVER THE BORDERLAND TO BRING US SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES
BACK ABOVE NORMAL. WEST FLOW THEN STRAIGHTENS...COLLAPSING AND THEN
MOVING THE RIDGE EASTWARD FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS FLOW WILL
REMAIN DRY HOWEVER WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS OVER THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW NOW APPEARS TO BE JUST SOUTH OF THE NM BOOTHEEL. THE LOW
WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT OPENING INTO AN OPEN WAVE BY
TUESDAY MORNING OVER CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. THIS WILL ALLOW SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE PERSISTS...DEW POINTS IN THE 50S. DEEPER LAYERS
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA BUT CURRENT PW`S OVER THE CWA
ARE AROUND .8" AND MODELS SHOWING THOSE PW`S REMAINING AROUND
8"-.9" ON TUESDAY. THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY SO SOME LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED. IT APPEARS THAT
AS GOOD AS THE HRRR PERFORMED LAST NIGHT...IT IS THAT BAD TODAY.
MODEL SHOWS STRONG CONVECTION TO HAVE ALREADY FORMED OVER WEST TEXAS
AND MOVED NORTHWEST OVER EL PASO BY AROUND THIS TIME. WHILE SOME
CONVECTION IS FORMING IN THIS AREA...NOT EVEN CLOSE TO THE SAME
COVERAGE AS THE HRRR IS SHOWING.
BY TUESDAY NIGHT OPEN WAVE IS NOW OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AS NEXT
PACIFIC TROUGH RAPIDLY MOVES IN BEHIND...OVER WESTERN ARIZONA LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND TO CENTRAL NEW MEXICO MID DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
MAY ENHANCE MORE THUNDERSTORMS INITIALLY ON WEDNESDAY BUT WILL
EVENTUALLY END SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM WEST TO EAST BY AFTERNOON AS
RIDGING AND WARMER AIR ALOFT BUILD OVER THE SOUTHWEST. WILL LEAVE
LOW POPS IN FAR EASTERN CWA WEDNESDAY EVENING BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT
CLEARING BY LATE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A BIT BELOW
NORMAL WITH THE CLOUD COVER.
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO HIGH CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO
BY FRIDAY...AND THEN GRADUALLY DRIFTS EAST AND ERODES AWAY AS STRONG
WEST FLOW DEVELOPS AS STRONG PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS LOOKS BETTER TIMED THAN PREVIOUS
GFS RUNS SO SUNDAY MAY BECOME WINDIER THAN ORIGINALLY THOUGHT.
OTHERWISE DRY AND WARM FROM THURSDAY ONWARD WITH TEMPERATURES BACK
ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION...VALID 21/00Z - 21/00Z...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AND DRIFT EAST
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. AREAS OF SHRA AND TSRA
WILL DEVELOP MOSTLY EAST OF KDMN THROUGH THRU 12Z. VSBY WILL BE
PERIODICALLY REDUCED TO LESS THAN 3SM IN MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN. THE
CLOUD DECK WILL INCREASE AND LOWER TO BETWEEN 5000 TO 6000 FEET AGL.
THROUGH 12Z. CIGS AT KTCS MAY BE LOWER OVERNIGHT. PREVAILING WINDS
WILL BE FROM NORTHEAST TO EAST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH STRONGER GUSTS
IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
FIRE WEATHER...
THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY MOVE TO THE EAST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. A WEAK SECONDARY TROUGH
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...MOSTLY EAST OF
DEMING. DRY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THURSDAY INTO THE NEXT WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL DURING THE DAY AND HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE HIGH THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE AND HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP
SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS DRIER AND MORE
STABLE AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE MAY RESULT IN SOME
STRONG INVERSIONS IN THE MORNINGS WITH POOR VENTILATION RATES
POSSIBLE BY MIDWEEK AND INTO NEXT SATURDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO 56 73 55 75 53 / 40 30 40 30 0
SIERRA BLANCA 50 70 50 72 49 / 70 40 40 40 20
LAS CRUCES 51 71 52 71 49 / 50 30 40 30 0
ALAMOGORDO 51 71 52 71 49 / 50 30 40 30 20
CLOUDCROFT 41 56 40 58 35 / 50 40 40 40 20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 52 71 52 71 51 / 60 30 30 20 0
SILVER CITY 47 66 48 68 47 / 40 20 20 20 0
DEMING 51 72 52 72 48 / 90 30 30 20 0
LORDSBURG 52 72 51 74 49 / 30 20 20 20 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 55 72 56 74 54 / 70 30 40 30 0
DELL CITY 49 72 48 73 45 / 60 40 40 40 20
FORT HANCOCK 54 74 53 77 52 / 60 40 40 30 20
LOMA LINDA 50 67 51 68 51 / 40 30 40 30 20
FABENS 52 75 52 77 50 / 40 30 40 30 0
SANTA TERESA 53 72 53 72 51 / 90 30 40 30 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 54 71 55 70 52 / 40 30 40 30 0
JORNADA RANGE 50 71 47 70 44 / 50 30 40 30 0
HATCH 49 71 49 70 47 / 50 30 30 30 0
COLUMBUS 53 72 54 73 51 / 90 30 30 20 0
OROGRANDE 52 72 53 72 51 / 40 30 40 30 20
MAYHILL 43 61 44 64 42 / 50 40 40 40 20
MESCALERO 40 62 41 63 37 / 50 40 40 40 20
TIMBERON 40 61 42 63 38 / 50 40 40 40 20
WINSTON 45 65 46 67 43 / 60 30 40 30 0
HILLSBORO 49 67 50 68 47 / 60 30 30 20 0
SPACEPORT 48 71 48 70 45 / 50 30 40 30 0
LAKE ROBERTS 44 65 45 68 43 / 50 30 30 20 0
HURLEY 48 68 49 70 49 / 50 20 30 20 0
CLIFF 46 70 44 72 41 / 40 20 20 20 0
MULE CREEK 44 69 41 71 38 / 40 20 20 10 0
FAYWOOD 49 67 50 69 48 / 60 30 30 20 0
ANIMAS 51 73 51 76 49 / 40 20 20 20 0
HACHITA 50 72 49 74 48 / 60 20 30 20 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 49 76 49 76 47 / 60 20 20 20 0
CLOVERDALE 49 74 51 75 48 / 40 20 20 10 0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE - HARDIMAN
PREV - HEFNER/LUNDEEN
FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
301 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014
.SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.
AREA OF LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH
SOUTHWEST AND SLOWLY DISSIPATE UNTIL SUNSET...PER 1000/850MB
RELATIVE HUMIDITY FIELDS IN MODELS AND HRRR CEILING FORECASTS.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT...THEN TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL WEAKEN WITH THE HIGH THIS EVENING...WITH
LIGHT/CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL TUMBLE INTO THE 29 TO 34 DEGREE RANGE AWAY
FROM LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT...SO MORE FROST IS EXPECTED EXCEPT RIGHT
ALONG THE LAKESHORE. HIGHS WEDNESDAY SHOULD ONLY REACH THE LOWER TO
MID 50S...PER 925 MB TEMPERATURE FIELDS FROM MODELS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS WED NT AND INTO
THE WRN GREAT LAKES FOR THU. AT THE SFC...A WEAKENING TROUGH WILL
ACCOMPANY THE UPPER FEATURE AND MOVE ACROSS SRN WI THU NT ALONG
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE EVENING. DUE TO THE
WEAKENING OF THE TROUGH AND SLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT...AN EAST TO WEST
POP GRADIENT IS FORECAST OVER THE AREA. LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI FROM THU AM INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH ONLY
CHANCES IN FAR ERN WI. TEMPS WILL REMAIN COOL FOR THU. LOW POPS
WILL LINGER INTO THU NT WITH DRYING AFTERWARD. A WEAK SFC RIDGE
WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THU NT AND FRI. IN ADDITION...A
DRY ATM AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT WILL LEAD TO MILD TEMPS FOR
FRI.
.LONG TERM...
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
A WLY FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING INTO SAT AHEAD OF A
AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT FROM CANADA. THE POLAR TROUGH AND
SFC LOW WITH THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN IN CANADA...THUS THE FRONT
WILL BE DRY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR SAT NT AND
TRANSITION TO SLY FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION FOR SUN. THE WAA PATTERN
IS DUE TO CYCLOGENESIS FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO CANADA. A BROAD
N-S UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN TRACK ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT
PLAINS FOR SUN NT AND MON. ONLY A WEAK N-S SFC TROUGH IS EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME WITH ONLY LOW POPS FOR PCPN FOR MON-TUE...BUT
STRONGER CYCLOGENESIS AND HIGHER CHANCES OF RAIN COULD BE
POSSIBLE.
&&
.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER UNTIL SUNSET ACROSS TAF SITES.
OVERCAST SKIES WILL BECOME BROKEN...THEN SCATTER OUT BY EARLY THIS
EVENING. SKIES SHOULD THEN REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. MAY SEE SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.
BRISK NORTH WINDS WILL LINGER UNTIL SUNSET AT THE EASTERN TAF
SITES...WITH NORTHEAST WINDS AT MADISON. WINDS WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT
AND BECOME EASTERLY...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES UNTIL 06Z WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE
NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. GUSTY NORTH WINDS OF 15 TO 20
KNOTS ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY EVENING...WITH A FEW 25 KNOT GUSTS.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT WAVES OF 3 TO 6 FEET. WINDS AND WAVES
WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENS.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ643>646.
&&
$$
TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...GEHRING
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1258 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014
THE LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ONTARIO AND A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS RUNNING
SOUTHWEST OVER THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL PLAINS.
EAST OF THE RIDGE AXIS...NORTH TO NORTH NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES
OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE COMBO OF UNSTABLE CONDITIONS OVER
LAKE SUPERIOR AND THERMAL TROUGHING ARE CONTRIBUTING TO WIDESPREAD
STRATO-CU ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF WISCONSIN. AREA OBS ARE
STILL REPORTING SPOTTY SPRINKLES. FURTHER NORTH...DRIER AIR IS
WORKING SOUTHWARD OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. LOOKING UPSTREAM...A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXITS OVER THE CENTRAL OF THE CONTINENT WHICH IS
LEADING TO CLEAR AND QUIET CONDITIONS. FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE
CLOUDS TRENDS TODAY FOLLOWED BY TEMPS.
TODAY...NOT AN EASY CLOUD FORECAST TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
BUILD SOUTHWARD OUT OF ONTARIO...BUT 925MB THERMAL TROUGHING AND
NORTH TO NNE FLOW CONTINUE OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH LOWERING
INVERSION HEIGHTS AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...THINK
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO HANG AROUND OVER N-C AND MOST OF EASTERN
WISCONSIN THROUGH THE MID-MORNING HOURS. BUT WITH DAYTIME
HEATING...MIXING SHOULD TAP INTO THE VERY DRY AIR ABOVE THE
INVERSION WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO RAPID CLEARING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
THE EXCEPTION WILL LIKELY BE THE LAKESHORE WHERE NNE WINDS WILL KEEP
LAKE CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S.
TONIGHT...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THIS INCOMING AIRMASS WILL BE VERY DRY...WITH
PWATS UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...SHOULD HAVE NEARLY IDEAL RADIATIVE COOLING CONDITIONS.
DROPPED LOW TEMPERATURES BELOW THE COLDEST GUIDANCE. LOWS IN THE
LOWER 20S WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS N-C WISCONSIN. MAINLY MID 20S TO
LOW 30S EVERYWHERE ELSE.
WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN THE
AFTERNOON BUT WILL BE TOO FAR WEST FOR ANY IMPACT ON OUR SENSIBLE
WEATHER. SO SHOULD SEE ANOTHER DAY OF PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. LOW
INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL PREVENT MUCH MIXING. SO EXPECT SEASONABLE
TEMPS IN THE LOWER 50S.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014
UPPER RIDGE OVER WISCONSIN AND ILLINOIS GETS DAMPENED
AND PUSHED TO THE EAST AS AN UPPER TROUGH DROPS TOWARDS WISCONSIN
FROM CENTRAL CANADA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT APPROACHES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN
MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY WHILE A WAVE MOVES TO
THE NORTH ALONG THE FRONT. THE MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE SHOWERS BUT THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES IN HOW QUICKLY IT EXITS. MOST PLACES SHOULD GET SOME
SHOWER ACTIVITY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING BUT AMOUNTS LOOK TO
BE MODEST AND AROUND A QUARTER TO HALF INCH. AFTER THAT UPPER FLOW
BECOMES NORTHWEST WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNDAY. RISING UPPER HEIGHTS SHOULD BRING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES STARTING ON FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014
MOST OF AREA HAD MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING...BUT DRY AIR MAKING ITS
WAY INTO WISCONSIN FROM THE NORTHEAST WAS CAUSING CLOUDS TO BREAK
UP. BY 1730Z MVFR CIGS WERE MOSTLY CONFINED NORTH CENTRAL AND
PARTS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THERE WERE SOME CIGS NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN BUT THEY WERE MOSTLY LOW END VFR. EXPECT CLOUDS TO
CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON LEAVING CLEAR SKIES FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS WISCONSIN
WILL RESULT IN LIGHT OR CALM WINDS. THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS COULD PRODUCE PATCHY FOG LATER TONIGHT. 12Z NAM
AND GFS MOS GUIDANCE HAD DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS GENERALLY 4F OR
MORE...BUT WOULD STILL NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE ENDED UP WITH PATCHY
FOG SINCE IT FORMED AT SOME LOCATIONS IN MINNESOTA THAT WERE UNDER
THE HIGH. SHOULD JUST BE HIGH CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA DURING
THE MORNING ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......MG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
612 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014
THE LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ONTARIO AND A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS RUNNING
SOUTHWEST OVER THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL PLAINS.
EAST OF THE RIDGE AXIS...NORTH TO NORTH NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES
OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE COMBO OF UNSTABLE CONDITIONS OVER
LAKE SUPERIOR AND THERMAL TROUGHING ARE CONTRIBUTING TO WIDESPREAD
STRATO-CU ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF WISCONSIN. AREA OBS ARE
STILL REPORTING SPOTTY SPRINKLES. FURTHER NORTH...DRIER AIR IS
WORKING SOUTHWARD OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. LOOKING UPSTREAM...A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXITS OVER THE CENTRAL OF THE CONTINENT WHICH IS
LEADING TO CLEAR AND QUIET CONDITIONS. FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE
CLOUDS TRENDS TODAY FOLLOWED BY TEMPS.
TODAY...NOT AN EASY CLOUD FORECAST TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
BUILD SOUTHWARD OUT OF ONTARIO...BUT 925MB THERMAL TROUGHING AND
NORTH TO NNE FLOW CONTINUE OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH LOWERING
INVERSION HEIGHTS AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...THINK
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO HANG AROUND OVER N-C AND MOST OF EASTERN
WISCONSIN THROUGH THE MID-MORNING HOURS. BUT WITH DAYTIME
HEATING...MIXING SHOULD TAP INTO THE VERY DRY AIR ABOVE THE
INVERSION WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO RAPID CLEARING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
THE EXCEPTION WILL LIKELY BE THE LAKESHORE WHERE NNE WINDS WILL KEEP
LAKE CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S.
TONIGHT...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THIS INCOMING AIRMASS WILL BE VERY DRY...WITH
PWATS UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...SHOULD HAVE NEARLY IDEAL RADIATIVE COOLING CONDITIONS.
DROPPED LOW TEMPERATURES BELOW THE COLDEST GUIDANCE. LOWS IN THE
LOWER 20S WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS N-C WISCONSIN. MAINLY MID 20S TO
LOW 30S EVERYWHERE ELSE.
WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN THE
AFTERNOON BUT WILL BE TOO FAR WEST FOR ANY IMPACT ON OUR SENSIBLE
WEATHER. SO SHOULD SEE ANOTHER DAY OF PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. LOW
INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL PREVENT MUCH MIXING. SO EXPECT SEASONABLE
TEMPS IN THE LOWER 50S.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014
UPPER RIDGE OVER WISCONSIN AND ILLINOIS GETS DAMPENED
AND PUSHED TO THE EAST AS AN UPPER TROUGH DROPS TOWARDS WISCONSIN
FROM CENTRAL CANADA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT APPROACHES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN
MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY WHILE A WAVE MOVES TO
THE NORTH ALONG THE FRONT. THE MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE SHOWERS BUT THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES IN HOW QUICKLY IT EXITS. MOST PLACES SHOULD GET SOME
SHOWER ACTIVITY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING BUT AMOUNTS LOOK TO
BE MODEST AND AROUND A QUARTER TO HALF INCH. AFTER THAT UPPER FLOW
BECOMES NORTHWEST WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNDAY. RISING UPPER HEIGHTS SHOULD BRING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES STARTING ON FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 612 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014
VERY DRY AIR SURGING SOUTHWARD OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL HELP THE
BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATO-CU TO GRADUALLY BREAK UP LATER THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ONSHORE FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN
WILL LIKELY KEEP AT LEAST SCT COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ALONG
THE SHORELINE. THEN CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......MPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
319 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014
THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT PER LATEST
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE AND VAD WIND PROFILES ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO WRAP STRATUS
DECK OF CLOUDS INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN PER LATEST FOG
PRODUCT SATELLITE. LATEST 08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS SURFACE RIDGE
OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA. TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE FORECAST HAVE DROPPED INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 40S...PER
LATEST METARS.
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS TONIGHT IS FOG POTENTIAL IN RIVER VALLEYS.
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF WISCONSIN AND
REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
SUBSIDENCE UNDERNEATH THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL ALLOW SKIES TO BECOME
MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
TONIGHT...WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND CLEAR
SKIES...AN INVERSION DEVELOPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND ALLOWS
THE POTENTIAL OF FOG TO FORM IN RIVER VALLEYS AFTER 06Z
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THE 21.00Z GFS/NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS CONTINUE
TO SHOW OVER 10 KNOTS OF WIND JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...AT AND ABOVE
200 FEET. THIS STRONG OF WIND WILL INHIBIT WIDESPREAD FOG
FORMATION IN THE RIVER VALLEYS. AT THIS TIME...HAVE LEFT MENTION
OF PATCHY FOG IN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND TRIBUTARIES.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014
NEXT CONCERN ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND NEW
MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THE
FORECAST AREA WILL RECEIVE PRECIPITATION...AS THE 21.00Z
GFS/NAM/ECMWF INDICATE ENOUGH QG FORCING AND ISENTROPIC LIFT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW TO PRODUCE SHOWERS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 06Z THURSDAY. THE 21.00Z GFS/NAM
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING A FRONTOGENETICAL BAND OF
PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN AND A
COMPLEX OF SHOWERS...POSSIBLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM OVER
EASTERN IOWA SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON NOSE OF WEAK 925-850MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT BY 18Z THURSDAY. THE 21.00Z NAM SHOWS 0-6KM
MOST UNSTABLE CAPE OF 200 J/KG ACROSS THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN FORECAST AREA. WITH THE
INSTABILITY VERY WEAK...WILL LEAVE MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE
FORECAST.
FOCUS THEN TURNS TO TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY...AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE 21.00Z GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. MINOR DIFFERENCES ARE INDICATED ON
AMPLIFICATION AND PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BETWEEN THE
ECMWF AND GFS. THIS WILL HAVE MINOR IMPACTS ON HOW FAR NORTH
WARMER AIRMASS PUSHES NORTHWARD ACROSS FORECAST AREA.
HOWEVER...BOTH THE MODELS SHOW STRONG WARMER AIR ADVECTING INTO
THE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND AND 850MB TEMPERATURES WARMING UP
TO PLUS 18 DEGREES CELSIUS BY 00Z MONDAY. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL...WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE 60S INTO THE LOWER 70S.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO EASTERN UNITED STATES SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES. THE 21.00Z GFS/ECMWF EJECT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH THE
MODELS SHOWING DIFFERENCES ON PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. BOTH THE MODELS INDICATE DECENT LIFT AND MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE TO WARRANT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014
THE MOSTLY VFR BLANKET OF CLOUDS HAS PERSISTED THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS ACROSS WI...ALTHOUGH RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTING SOME
ERODING STARTING ON THE WESTERN EDGES. AT THE MOMENT...THE BACKEDGE
REMAINS JUST EAST/NORTH OF KLSE. 850-700 MB WINDS VEER TO THE
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT THOUGH...AND THIS COULD BRING DOWN THE CLOUDS
FROM NORTHERN WI. RAP/NAM 850 MB RH FIELDS ERODE/MOVE EAST
OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH LINGER SOME 925 MB RH. GOING TO HOLD THE COURSE
WITH SKC/SCT CONDITIONS FOR KLSE RIGHT NOW...KEEPING THE CLOUD
SHIELD JUST ON THE DOORSTEP. IF IT WOULD MOVE IN...CIGS LOOK VFR
NEAR 4KFT AT THIS TIME.
LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY OVERNIGHT...AND GRADUALLY MORE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY TUE. SOME INCREASE TOWARD 10 KTS AT KRST
BY AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS THE NEXT COUPLE OVERNIGHTS-MORNINGS
BRINGS TO QUESTION IF FOG COULD DEVELOP IN THE RIVER VALLEYS. AT
THIS TIME...CHANCES LOOK SMALL. RAP SOUNDINGS KEEP WINDS STIRRING
JUST ABOVE THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION OVERNIGHT...12+ KTS AT 200 FT.
NOT CONDUCIVE FOR DENSE FOG FORMATION AT KLSE. GFS/NAM SOUNDINGS
SIMILAR FOR TUE NIGHT...KEEPING 10+ KTS OF WINDS JUST OFF THE SFC.
IF A DEEPER LIGHT WIND FIELD WOULD BE REALIZED...THE FG THREAT
INCREASES.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM...DTJ
AVIATION.....RIECK
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014
THE LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ONTARIO AND A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS RUNNING
SOUTHWEST OVER THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL PLAINS.
EAST OF THE RIDGE AXIS...NORTH TO NORTH NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES
OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE COMBO OF UNSTABLE CONDITIONS OVER
LAKE SUPERIOR AND THERMAL TROUGHING ARE CONTRIBUTING TO WIDESPREAD
STRATO-CU ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF WISCONSIN. AREA OBS ARE
STILL REPORTING SPOTTY SPRINKLES. FURTHER NORTH...DRIER AIR IS
WORKING SOUTHWARD OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. LOOKING UPSTREAM...A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXITS OVER THE CENTRAL OF THE CONTINENT WHICH IS
LEADING TO CLEAR AND QUIET CONDITIONS. FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE
CLOUDS TRENDS TODAY FOLLOWED BY TEMPS.
TODAY...NOT AN EASY CLOUD FORECAST TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
BUILD SOUTHWARD OUT OF ONTARIO...BUT 925MB THERMAL TROUGHING AND
NORTH TO NNE FLOW CONTINUE OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH LOWERING
INVERSION HEIGHTS AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...THINK
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO HANG AROUND OVER N-C AND MOST OF EASTERN
WISCONSIN THROUGH THE MID-MORNING HOURS. BUT WITH DAYTIME
HEATING...MIXING SHOULD TAP INTO THE VERY DRY AIR ABOVE THE
INVERSION WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO RAPID CLEARING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
THE EXCEPTION WILL LIKELY BE THE LAKESHORE WHERE NNE WINDS WILL KEEP
LAKE CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S.
TONIGHT...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THIS INCOMING AIRMASS WILL BE VERY DRY...WITH
PWATS UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...SHOULD HAVE NEARLY IDEAL RADIATIVE COOLING CONDITIONS.
DROPPED LOW TEMPERATURES BELOW THE COLDEST GUIDANCE. LOWS IN THE
LOWER 20S WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS N-C WISCONSIN. MAINLY MID 20S TO
LOW 30S EVERYWHERE ELSE.
WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN THE
AFTERNOON BUT WILL BE TOO FAR WEST FOR ANY IMPACT ON OUR SENSIBLE
WEATHER. SO SHOULD SEE ANOTHER DAY OF PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. LOW
INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL PREVENT MUCH MIXING. SO EXPECT SEASONABLE
TEMPS IN THE LOWER 50S.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014
UPPER RIDGE OVER WISCONSIN AND ILLINOIS GETS DAMPENED
AND PUSHED TO THE EAST AS AN UPPER TROUGH DROPS TOWARDS WISCONSIN
FROM CENTRAL CANADA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT APPROACHES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN
MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY WHILE A WAVE MOVES TO
THE NORTH ALONG THE FRONT. THE MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE SHOWERS BUT THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES IN HOW QUICKLY IT EXITS. MOST PLACES SHOULD GET SOME
SHOWER ACTIVITY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING BUT AMOUNTS LOOK TO
BE MODEST AND AROUND A QUARTER TO HALF INCH. AFTER THAT UPPER FLOW
BECOMES NORTHWEST WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNDAY. RISING UPPER HEIGHTS SHOULD BRING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES STARTING ON FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 944 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014
BKN-OVC CLOUDS LATE THIS EVENING RANGED FROM MVFR LEVELS OVER
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO A LOWER END VFR CIG OVER CENTRAL AND
EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. WHILE POCKETS OF CLEAR SKIES WILL DEVELOP
TONIGHT...IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED TO BE LATE TONIGHT FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. SAT IMAGERY
SHOWS A DECREASING CLOUD AREA WORKING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND MY
BEGIN TO REACH FAR NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN STARTING AROUND 07Z.
ISOLATED SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS WILL LINGER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS WELL. CONTINUED FEED OF DRIER AIR WITH A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE STATE FROM THE WEST WILL PRODUCE VFR
CONDITIONS TUESDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LINGERING MVFR OR LOW
VFR CIGS TOWARD LAKE MICHIGAN OR EASTERN WISCONSIN.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......TDH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
431 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM CENTERED SOUTH OF CAPE COD...WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF RAINFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY PULL
AWAY FROM THE REGION AND MOVE OUT TO SEA ON FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL
FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT...BANDS OF RAIN MOVING FROM EAST TO WEST CONTINUE
TO PINWHEEL AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SPRAWLING VERTICALLY
STACKED COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.
STRONG EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS RESULTING IN A
CONVEYOR-BELT OF MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC. CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS
RESULTING IN MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE REGION...ESPECIALLY FOR THE TACONICS...NORTHERN
BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. SOME PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS AND
OTHER POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS IS LIKELY...BUT SHOULD NOT POSE ANY
SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS. REFER TO HYDRO SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.
THE CHALLENGING ASPECT HAS BEEN A RATHER SHARP GRADIENT TO THE RAIN
SHIED...WHICH HAS ALLOWED AREAS SUCH AS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND
MOHAWK VALLEY TO REMAIN GENERALLY RAIN-FREE AS OF 4 AM. WILL LOWER
POPS IN THESE AREAS UNTIL LATER THIS MORNING WHEN AT LEAST SOME RAIN
WILL IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY REACH MUCH OF THIS AREA. LOCATIONS FROM
AROUND ROUTE 28 NEAR OLD FORGE NORTHWARD MAY NOT RECEIVE ANY
MEASURABLE RAIN THOUGH...SO WILL GENERALLY MENTION CHANCE POPS.
BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AS WELL AS OUTPUT FROM HI RES MODELS SUCH AS
THE HRRR AND LOCAL WRF...THESE BANDS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
THE REGION WITH VARYING INTENSITY INTO THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE
WEAKENING LATE IN THE DAY AS THE LOW STARTS TO FINALLY TRACK
EASTWARD. LIGHTER RAIN WILL STILL BE LIKELY THIS EVENING FOR MANY
LOCATIONS...BUT THE INTENSITY SHOULD WANE AS WE LOSE THE CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS. WITH THE CLOUDS...RAIN AND PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS AT
THE SURFACE...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE MUCH TODAY WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL START TO PULL AWAY FROM THE COAST
TONIGHT AND FARTHER OUT TO SEA. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE LARGE
GEOGRAPHIC SCOPE OF THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION WE WILL STILL BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME...WITH PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. SO OVERCAST CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY LIGHT RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF BY
FRIDAY MORNING. WILL MENTION LIKELY POPS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EVENING...TAPERING TO CHANCE AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS THE LOW TRACKS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST. AS THE FLOW REGIME
STARTS TO TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY FRIDAY MORNING...SOME UPSLOPE
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST AND
WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY.
WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LOOSEN ITS GRIP ON THE REGION
FRIDAY...THE FLOW WILL STILL BE MAINLY CYCLONIC WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WRAPPING BACK AROUND THE LOW. SO WE ARE EXPECTING PLENTY OF
CLOUDS DESPITE CHANCES FOR RAIN DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHANCE BY
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...IT WILL BE A SEASONABLY COOL DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THURSDAY. A FEW BREAKS OF
SUN MAY BE POSSIBLE TOWARDS SUNSET SOUTH AND WEST OF ALBANY.
SKIES EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CLEAR FRIDAY NIGHT...AS A SMALL SURFACE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS DUE TO LESS CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER... THE
NEXT SYSTEM WILL ALREADY BE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY
EARLY SATURDAY...AS A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
STRONG UPPER JET APPROACHES. SO SATURDAY SHOULD START OUT WITH SOME
SUNSHINE...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT LATE IN THE DAY. WITH ENOUGH SUNSHINE...HIGH TEMPS
COULD REACH THE LOWER 60S IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER
SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL AFFECT THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
LATEST MODEL RUNS TRACK THESE SYSTEMS FURTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS...WHICH RESULTS IN LESS PCPN ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ON
SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THIS SYSTEM WILL MAINLY PRODUCE
PCPN ACROSS NORTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...WITH LITTLE IF ANY PCPN
ACROSS SOUTHEAST AREAS AND MOST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. HAVE FORECAST
LIKELY POPS OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT...DECREASING TO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. ON SUNDAY POPS WILL RANGE FROM
HIGH CHANCE LEVELS OVER THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO SLIGHT CHANCE
OR DRY CONDITIONS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL STILL BE MILD WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S. FOLLOWING THE TROF PASSAGE...IT WILL TURN BLUSTERY WITH
SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN NORMAL TEMPS ON SUNDAY...HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO
BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER TO
START THE NEW WORK WEEK. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30 TO 40
DEGREE RANGE. HIGHS MONDAY 50 TO 60. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID
30S TO LOWER 40S. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S.
DURING TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WED AFTN AND EVENING. MOST OF
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY...BUT POPS ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO BETWEEN
20 AND 40 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
40S. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF THE DELMARVA
WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
PROVIDING A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
AS OF 130 AM...PRIMARY RAINFALL BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE UPPER LOW
IS NOW ORIENTED EAST TO WEST AND WAS AFFECTING THE KALB/KPSF TAF
SITES. THE BAND HAD ALREADY SHIFTED NORTH OF THE KPOU TAF SITE AND
HAD NOT YET REACHED THE KGFL TAF SITE. THIS BAND IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY SHIFT NORTHWARD AND BECOME ORIENTED MORE NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...EXPECT MVFR TO
OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS AT THE KALB/KPSF TAF SITES THROUGH AROUND
16Z/17Z...THEN MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING
AT 00Z FRIDAY.
AT KPOU...EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF
PERIOD...POSSIBLY BECOMING VFR AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW
SHIFTS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST.
AT KGFL...VFR VSBYS/MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 08Z...THEN
DETERIORATE TO MVFR TO OCCASIONALLY IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 08Z AS THE
RAIN BAND SHIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE KGFL AREA. DURING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AT ALL THE TAF SITES AT 10 TO 14
KTS...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM CENTERED SOUTH OF CAPE COD...WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF RAINFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY PULL
AWAY FROM THE REGION AND MOVE OUT TO SEA ON FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL
FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL ONLY BE 70 PERCENT OR GREATER
TODAY. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED BE BETWEEN 90 AND 100
PERCENT. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF AROUND 50 TO 65
PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS TODAY WILL BE NORTHERLY AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS
NEAR 20 MPH. WINDS TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15
MPH...INCREASING TO AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH ON FRIDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
PERIODS OF RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. THE RAIN WILL FALL MODERATE TO BRIEFLY
HEAVY IN INTENSITY AT TIMES. THROUGH TONIGHT...ABOUT AN ADDITIONAL
INCH OF RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY UP TO TWO INCHES
ACROSS THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS IN
SOUTHERN VERMONT...THE BERKSHIRES AND TACONICS. DUE TO RECENT DRY
WEATHER...THIS RAINFALL IS RATHER BENEFICIAL TO THE REGION. THERE
WILL BE SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO RIVER
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. THERE MAY BE SOME PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS OR FIELDS...OR IN POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS...BUT
THE IMPACT SHOULD BE RATHER MINIMAL.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/JPV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
414 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM CENTERED SOUTH OF CAPE COD...WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF RAINFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY PULL
AWAY FROM THE REGION AND MOVE OUT TO SEA ON FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL
FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT...BANDS OF RAIN MOVING FROM EAST TO WEST CONTINUE
TO PINWHEEL AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SPRAWLING VERTICALLY
STACKED COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.
STRONG EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS RESULTING IN A
CONVEYOR-BELT OF MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC. CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS
RESULTING IN MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE REGION...ESPECIALLY FOR THE TACONICS...NORTHERN
BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. SOME PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS AND
OTHER POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS IS LIKELY...BUT SHOULD NOT POSE ANY
SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS. REFER TO HYDRO SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.
THE CHALLENGING ASPECT HAS BEEN A RATHER SHARP GRADIENT TO THE RAIN
SHIED...WHICH HAS ALLOWED AREAS SUCH AS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND
MOHAWK VALLEY TO REMAIN GENERALLY RAIN-FREE AS OF 4 AM. WILL LOWER
POPS IN THESE AREAS UNTIL LATER THIS MORNING WHEN AT LEAST SOME RAIN
WILL IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY REACH MUCH OF THIS AREA. LOCATIONS FROM
AROUND ROUTE 28 NEAR OLD FORGE NORTHWARD MAY NOT RECEIVE ANY
MEASURABLE RAIN THOUGH...SO WILL GENERALLY MENTION CHANCE POPS.
BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AS WELL AS OUTPUT FROM HI RES MODELS SUCH AS
THE HRRR AND LOCAL WRF...THESE BANDS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
THE REGION WITH VARYING INTENSITY INTO THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE
WEAKENING LATE IN THE DAY AS THE LOW STARTS TO FINALLY TRACK
EASTWARD. LIGHTER RAIN WILL STILL BE LIKELY THIS EVENING FOR MANY
LOCATIONS...BUT THE INTENSITY SHOULD WANE AS WE LOSE THE CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS. WITH THE CLOUDS...RAIN AND PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS AT
THE SURFACE...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE MUCH TODAY WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL START TO PULL AWAY FROM THE COAST
TONIGHT AND FARTHER OUT TO SEA. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE LARGE
GEOGRAPHIC SCOPE OF THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION WE WILL STILL BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME...WITH PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. SO OVERCAST CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY LIGHT RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF BY
FRIDAY MORNING. WILL MENTION LIKELY POPS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EVENING...TAPERING TO CHANCE AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS THE LOW TRACKS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST. AS THE FLOW REGIME
STARTS TO TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY FRIDAY MORNING...SOME UPSLOPE
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST AND
WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY.
WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LOOSEN ITS GRIP ON THE REGION
FRIDAY...THE FLOW WILL STILL BE MAINLY CYCLONIC WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WRAPPING BACK AROUND THE LOW. SO WE ARE EXPECTING PLENTY OF
CLOUDS DESPITE CHANCES FOR RAIN DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHANCE BY
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...IT WILL BE A SEASONABLY COOL DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THURSDAY. A FEW BREAKS OF
SUN MAY BE POSSIBLE TOWARDS SUNSET SOUTH AND WEST OF ALBANY.
SKIES EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CLEAR FRIDAY NIGHT...AS A SMALL SURFACE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS DUE TO LESS CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER... THE
NEXT SYSTEM WILL ALREADY BE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY
EARLY SATURDAY...AS A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
STRONG UPPER JET APPROACHES. SO SATURDAY SHOULD START OUT WITH SOME
SUNSHINE...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT LATE IN THE DAY. WITH ENOUGH SUNSHINE...HIGH TEMPS
COULD REACH THE LOWER 60S IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY INITIALLY UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS DURING THE WEEKEND BEFORE IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR THE
START OF NEXT WEEK.
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE COASTAL LOW AND DEEP
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXITING NORTHEAST TO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...WITH THE FORECAST AREA UNDERNEATH A NORTHWEST FLOW
REGIME. A POTENT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL QUICKLY DIVE
SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN CANADA IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW SATURDAY AND
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST
OF THE CAPITAL REGION TO FAVORABLE UPSLOPE AREAS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. ENOUGH FORCING LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE TO MENTION WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION. SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO THE DAY SUNDAY AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND FOR THE START OF
NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHTS
RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION. DRY WEATHER AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY ALONG WITH SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS POTENTIALLY REACHING 70 ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY.
LONG TERM GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE HANDLING THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT THAT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE
COUNTRY AND MOVE EAST DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTION OF NEXT
WEEK. HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES...WITH THE 12Z GFS BEING
SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER THAN THE 12Z ECMWF DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF SLOWS THE FRONTAL
PROGRESSION AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THE WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE MID-HUDSON
VALLEY...BEFORE WARMING FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK INTO THE MID 50S
TO MID 60S ACROSS THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF THE DELMARVA
WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
PROVIDING A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
AS OF 130 AM...PRIMARY RAINFALL BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE UPPER LOW
IS NOW ORIENTED EAST TO WEST AND WAS AFFECTING THE KALB/KPSF TAF
SITES. THE BAND HAD ALREADY SHIFTED NORTH OF THE KPOU TAF SITE AND
HAD NOT YET REACHED THE KGFL TAF SITE. THIS BAND IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY SHIFT NORTHWARD AND BECOME ORIENTED MORE NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...EXPECT MVFR TO
OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS AT THE KALB/KPSF TAF SITES THROUGH AROUND
16Z/17Z...THEN MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING
AT 00Z FRIDAY.
AT KPOU...EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF
PERIOD...POSSIBLY BECOMING VFR AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW
SHIFTS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST.
AT KGFL...VFR VSBYS/MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 08Z...THEN
DETERIORATE TO MVFR TO OCCASIONALLY IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 08Z AS THE
RAIN BAND SHIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE KGFL AREA. DURING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AT ALL THE TAF SITES AT 10 TO 14
KTS...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM CENTERED SOUTH OF CAPE COD...WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF RAINFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY PULL
AWAY FROM THE REGION AND MOVE OUT TO SEA ON FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL
FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL ONLY BE 70 PERCENT OR GREATER
TODAY. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED BE BETWEEN 90 AND 100
PERCENT. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF AROUND 50 TO 65
PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS TODAY WILL BE NORTHERLY AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS
NEAR 20 MPH. WINDS TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15
MPH...INCREASING TO AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH ON FRIDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
PERIODS OF RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. THE RAIN WILL FALL MODERATE TO BRIEFLY
HEAVY IN INTENSITY AT TIMES. THROUGH TONIGHT...ABOUT AN ADDITIONAL
INCH OF RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY UP TO TWO INCHES
ACROSS THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS IN
SOUTHERN VERMONT...THE BERKSHIRES AND TACONICS. DUE TO RECENT DRY
WEATHER...THIS RAINFALL IS RATHER BENEFICIAL TO THE REGION. THERE
WILL BE SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO RIVER
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. THERE MAY BE SOME PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS OR FIELDS...OR IN POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS...BUT
THE IMPACT SHOULD BE RATHER MINIMAL.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/JPV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
146 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE CLEAR OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF
MICHIGAN AND INDIANA. CLOUDS OVER EASTERN AREAS WILL SLOWLY ERODE
THIS EVENING LEAVING BEHIND PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL REACH THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014
DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA AND RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER
CONDITIONS...A FEW WEATHER ISSUES DO PERSIST WITH RESPECT TO CLOUD
COVER AND TEMPERATURES TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY TELLS THE STORY WITH STRATUS DECK STILL
LINGERING OVER EASTERN HALF OF FORECAST AREA AS OF 18Z. SOME SLOW
EROSION HAS BEEN NOTED OVER WESTERN EDGE AND SOME CLEARING
APPROACHING FROM NORTHEAST PER LIGHT NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL WINDS.
MODELS REMAIN RATHER PERSISTENT THAT AREA OF STRATUS WILL CONTINUE
TO THIN AND DISSIPATE THIS EVENING PER HRRR RH AND TOTAL CLOUD COVER
PLOTS ALONG WITH LATEST RAP13 RH FIELDS IN THE 900-850MB LAYERS.
CONCERN THOUGH LIES WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH
A RATHER STOUT LOW LEVEL INVERSION. 925-850MB THERMAL RIDGE REMAINS
OVER EASTERN IL AND WESTERN IN THROUGH THE NIGHT ALONG WITH 500MB
RIDGE AXIS. TYPICALLY STRATUS EROSION DOES NOT OCCUR UNTIL PASSAGE
OF THESE FEATURES. HOWEVER...SOUNDINGS SHOW A VERY DRY AIRMASS
SITTING ATOP VERY THIN LAYER OF CLOUDS AND INCREASING SUBSIDENCE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY CONTINUE TO ERODE THE CLOUD DECK
AS ADVERTISED. HAVE CONTINUED TO SLOW THE EROSION IN THE SKY COVER
GRIDS BUT DID KEEP THE OPTIMISTIC ATTITUDE IN ORDER TO MATCH
SURROUNDING SITES FOR A MORE CONSISTENT LOOKING FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES TO BE IMPACTED SIGNIFICANTLY IF THESE CLOUDS DO HOLD ON
THROUGH THE NIGHT. FOR NOW STAYED WITH PERSISTENCE AND OPTIMISTIC
FORECAST WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE LOWER AND MID 30S. PREVIOUS
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN THE BEST PERFORMING GUIDANCE OVER THE LAST
WEEK...15 DAYS AND 30 DAYS SO WILL RIDE WITH THAT. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW A VERY MOIST SHALLOW LAYER NEAR SURFACE UNDER
STRONG INVERSION WITH VERY DRY AIR ALOFT AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH A
DEEP COLUMN. THIS USUALLY AN IDEAL SETUP FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT SO
ADDED PATCHY FOG TO GRIDS.
EXPECT THURSDAY TO REMAIN DRY AHEAD OF NEXT WEAK SHORT WAVE WITH
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS IN THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. RAWBLEND
GUIDANCE PERFORMING BEST WITH MID TO UPPER 50S EXPECTED FOR HIGHS.
&&
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT WAS LAGGING BEHIND LOWER LEVELS...WITH QUESTIONABLE
SATURATION THROUGH THE CLOUD LAYER. REFINED THE TIMING OF THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS GIVEN THE LATEST MODEL EXPECTATIONS. VERY LITTLE
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM GIVEN LIMITED SATURATION...
WEAK LIFT AND LACK OF MOISTURE. A BACK DOOR TYPE OF FRONT SHOULD
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND BECOME STATIONARY NEAR OR OVER
THE FORECAST AREA. KEPT THE FORECAST DRY GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE AND
LIMITED LOW LEVEL FORCING ALONG THE FRONT. LOWERED HIGHS SUNDAY INTO
THE 50S NORTHEAST OF THE FRONT. THERE WAS MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. FAVOR THE GFS WHICH HAS
BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY THAN THE ECMWF WITH THE BEST CHANCE
FOR RAIN ABOUT TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 141 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014
STRATOCU DECK HAS DISSIPATED ACROSS THE AREA. THE CLEARING
COMBINED WITH MOIST CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
SET THE STAGE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY AROND KFWA WHICH
HASN`T HAD A CHANCE TO MIX OUT ALL THE MOISTURE FROM RECENT RAINS
DUE TO CLOUDS. HAVE HELD WITH MVFR FOR NOW AT BOTH SITES...BUT
CAN`T RULE OUT SOME WIDELY VARIABLE VSBYS AT KFWA THAT COULD
IMPINGE ON IFR. WHILE THIS MAY OCCUR...ANY FOG SHOULD BE SHALLOW.
SKIES WILL CLEAR WITH VFR CONDITIONS THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS TOWARDS
00Z/FRI WITH A CHANCE FOR A FEW SPRINKLES OR A LIGHT SHOWER AT
KSBN. NOT WORTHY OF ANY MENTION AT THIS POINT.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...LASHLEY
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...FISHER
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
300 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014
MAIN CONCERN REMAINS THE ARRIVAL OF THE RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A
PRONOUNCED RIBBON OF THETAE ADVECTION WITH A RETREATING WARM
FRONT NOW ENTERING NORTHEAST IOWA. RIDGE ALOFT IS WEAKENING THE
BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISO THUNDER MOVING EAST ACROSS THE AREA WHILE
ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS IS DEVELOPING WEST OF THE FIRST LINE AND
MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARD CENTRAL/NORTHERN IOWA AT 07Z. FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT...THUNDER WILL GRAD DIMINISH AND SOME
PATCHY FOG WILL FORM WEST WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING OVER THE AREA
GENERALLY EAST OF I35 AFTER 12Z AND EXITING THE AREA ABOUT 18Z
TODAY. BOTH THE HRRR AND THE NMM ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE
MAIN AREA OF RAIN OVER THE EAST AFT 12Z AND EXITING EAST BY MIDDAY
AND CURRENT TRENDS SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO. AS CLOUDS DEPART... MILD
AIR BEHIND THE BOUNDARY SHOULD WARM QUICKLY WITH HIGHS REACHING
THE LOWER 70S WEST TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S EAST. BUFR SOUNDINGS
INDICATE SOME CU EARLY ON IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT MAINLY SUNNY BY
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014
THE MAIN ISSUE OF THE EXTENDED WAS WITH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND...AND WITH PRECIP CHANCES LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER ECMWF/GFS/SREF FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...THEN CLOSER TO THE ECMWF SUNDAY THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK.
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...NICE WARM DAY ANTICIPATED FOR FRIDAY WITH
GOOD WAA AHEAD OF NEXT WEAK SHORTWAVE SET TO MOVE ACROSS THE
STATE DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS LOOKS TO MAINLY BRING A WESTERLY
WIND SHIFT LATE IN THE DAY. TWEAKED MAX TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO
WITH GOOD MIXING AND SOUTHWEST FLOW. 850MB TEMPS RISE INTO THE
+14C TO +18C RANGE BY 18Z FRIDAY. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH SOME WEAK CAA...BUT STILL LOOKS TO BE ABOVE
NORMAL FOR MAX TEMPERATURES.
THE 850MB RIDGE MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING
ALLOWING FOR SOME STRONG RETURN FLOW INTO THE STATE. THE CAVEAT IS
CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH SOME DECENT THETA-E ADVECTION MOVING
ACROSS THE STATE. THIS SHOULD HELP BALANCE OUT THE WAA...AND ONLY
WENT SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN GUIDANCE IN THE SOUTHWEST FOR HIGHS
SUNDAY. THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE SHOW SOME BROAD ISENTROPIC LIFT BY
THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING SUNDAY AND MAY SPAWN SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN THE
WARM SECTOR MONDAY AND REMAINS CAPPED OFF. THUS...WENT COMPLETELY
DRY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY
MONDAY. THE COLD FRONT AND TROUGH MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH THE ECMWF A BIT STRONGER AND DEEPER WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHILE THE GFS IS STRONGER WITH THE SURFACE
LOW. REGARDLESS...MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR NEXT SIGNIFICANT PRECIP. MUCH COLDER TUESDAY AND
EVEN INTO THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH THE REGION REMAINING IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
&&
.AVIATION...23/06Z
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014
PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE HOW MUCH TO DEGRADE CONDITIONS WITH
PASSAGE OF 5-8 HOUR PERIOD OF WEAK CONVECTION. OBS ARE SOMEWHAT
VARIABLE AT THE MOMENT UPSTREAM...VFR TO IFR...SO PLAYED A MIDDLE
GROUND WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CIGS MAY
OCCUR AFTER PRECIP ENDS WEST. THIS PERIOD SHOULD THEN BE FOLLOWED
BY VFR AND CLEARING INTO MIDDAY AND THE AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE A
FEW PERIODS OF THUNDER WITH THE PRECIP...BUT HAVE OMITTED WORDING
FOR NOW AND WILL PLAY THE SHORT TERM TRENDS FOR UPDATES RATHER
THAN BLANKET TS FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...PODRAZIK
AVIATION...SMALL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
300 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014
TODAY-TONIGHT...UPPER HIGH CURRENTLY CENTERED JUST SOUTHWEST OF
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AREA WILL EXPAND AND
STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO BY 12Z FRIDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S.
AS FOR THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY...WILL EXTEND IT A FEW MORE HOURS TIL
16Z AS THE RUC IS HOLDING ONTO IT A BIT LONGER THEN PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED.
FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...UPPER HIGH AND RIDGE SLIDE SLOWLY INTO
WEST/SOUTHWEST TEXAS BY 12Z SATURDAY. SOME CIRRUS EXPECTED FRIDAY
MORNING BEFORE EXITING EAST AND OUT OF THE AREA BY THE END OF THE
DAY. CLEAR SKY EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN
THE MID 80S...EXCEPTION ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF FAR EASTERN
COLORADO WHERE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S EXPECTED. LOWS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S.
RECORD/NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE FOR A FEW
LOCATIONS...SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.
SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...UPPER HIGH SLIDES SOUTHEAST INTO
SOUTHERN TEXAS BY 12Z SUNDAY AS UPPER FLOW SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHWEST
AS LARGE PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM MOVES ASHORE. CLOUDINESS WILL BE
CONFINED TO POSSIBLY A FEW AFTERNOON CUMULUS CLOUDS...OTHERWISE
CLEAR. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE COOLER AS SFC WINDS
TURN TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST WITH 75 TO 80 ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
INTERSTATE...LOW 80S TO THE SOUTH. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S
TO AROUND 50.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1249 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014
MAIN CONCERNS ARE THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES AT
THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. STILL A LOT OF SPREAD BETWEEN THE
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE OUTPUT WITH SIMILAR TRENDS FROM
YESTERDAY. THE NEW ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE SLOWEST AND MOST
AMPLIFIED WITH UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING AND MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION IN THE SUNDAY TO MONDAY NIGHT PERIOD. THE CANADIAN IS THE
FASTEST WITH THE GFS IN THE MIDDLE.
WITH THE SLOWER ARRIVAL AND DRIER AIR MASS IN PLACE...SUNDAY NIGHT
IS LOOKING DRY AND LIKE WHAT THE CRH_INIT GAVE ME. BULK OF THE
TROUGH/ASSOCIATED LIFT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.
MODELS DIFFER ON PLACEMENT OF THE JET LIFT BUT THEY EITHER HAVE A
RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OR LEFT FRONT QUADRANT MOVING THROUGH DURING
THE DAY. EVEN THOUGH THE MODELS VARY IN THE SPEED THEY ARE MOVING
THE SYSTEM THROUGH...THEY IN GENERAL ARE A LITTLE SLOWER.
AS A RESULT OF THAT AND THE LIFT BEING STRONGER...RAINFALL LOOKS
LIKE IT LASTS INTO AT LEAST THE EVENING. SO LIKE THE LINGERING
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THE INIT GAVE ME AND WILL KEEP. BIG DIFFERENCES
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD AND BECAUSE OF THAT AND
GENERAL PATTERN SUPPORTING DRY CONDITIONS...KEPT THE DRY POPS THE
INIT GAVE ME.
SECONDARY PROBLEM WILL BE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY
FOLLOWED BY THE LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS. SAME
GENERAL PATTERN IN PLACE FOR SUNDAY WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
HOWEVER...MODEL OUTPUT IS NOW MORE CONSISTENT IN BACKING SOME KIND
OF BOUNDARY INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND THEN
LIFTING IT OUT SUNDAY. HOWEVER IT DOES LOOK LIKE THAT FRONT STAYS
OVER A PORTION OF THE AREA SO A BIG GRADIENT IN TEMPERATURE COULD
OCCUR THIS DAY AND THE FORECAST PROBLEMATIC. SO DECIDED TO NOT
TOUCH THOSE MAXES.
MODELS IN MORE AGREEMENT ON THE COOLER MAXES FOR MONDAY WITH THE
GFS/ECMWF IN BETTER WITH THE CANADIAN MUCH COLDER. FORECAST MAXES
LOOK REASONABLE BUT IT IS DEFINITELY POSSIBLE THAT MAXES COULD BE
EVEN COLDER THAN WHAT WILL BE IN THERE. FOR MONDAY NIGHT...SLOWER
DEPARTURE OF THE SYSTEM WILL KEEP CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE NIGHT AT THE VERY LEAST. DEFINITELY COULD SEE FROST WITH
THE NORTHWEST PORTION HAVE THE BEST SHOT FOR THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE JUST AS COLD OR COLDER
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WILL ALSO HAVE TO BE WATCHED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014
KGLD...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. MAY SEE SOME AFTERNOON CU THIS
MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AND SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT.
LIGHT WIND AT TAF ISSUANCE EXPECTED TO BACK TO THE SOUTH/SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST AROUND 10KTS BY 18Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT
BEFORE VEERING TO THE WEST NEAR 10KTS TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD.
KMCK...MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AT TAF ISSUANCE WITH IFR/VLIFR
CONDITIONS JUST EAST OR ON TOP OF THE TERMINAL FROM TAF ISSUANCE
THROUGH 14Z BEFORE BECOMING VFR THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF
PERIOD. WILL NEED TO WATCH THE 08Z-12Z TIMEFRAME FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF IFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS AS LOW LEVEL AIRMASS CURRENTLY
OVER THE TERMINAL REDEVELOPS DESPITE SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 5-10KTS.
LIGHT WEST WIND AT TAF ISSUANCE EXPECTED TO BACK TO THE SOUTH AT
SIMILAR SPEEDS BY 18Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH 03Z BEFORE VEERING TO
THE SOUTHWEST THEN WEST FROM 04Z THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF
PERIOD.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE IN JEOPARDY OF BEING TIED OR BROKEN
AT THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS FRIDAY OCTOBER 24:
BURLINGTON....84 IN 1952
COLBY.........87 IN 2003
&&
$$
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ003-004-
015-016-029.
CO...NONE.
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ081.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...99
CLIMATE...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
1243 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL INTENSIFY AS IT
SLOWLY MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES ACROSS ESPECIALLY CENTRAL
AND DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE REGION. THIS LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE
OPEN ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY ONLY TO BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER LOW
CROSSING THE REGION FROM CENTRAL CANADA ON SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
12:30 AM UPDATE...UPPER RIDGE IS HOLDING STRONG ATTM PER THE
LATEST SATELLITE WV IMAGERY AND 00Z UPPER AIR W/RAIN BEING HELD AT
BAY ACROSS THE NORTH. RAINFALL IS SPLIT PER THE LATEST RADAR LOOP
SHOWING ONE AREA CONFINED TO EASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY AND THE
OTHER ACROSS THE HOULTON AND MILLINOCKET AREA AND OVER WESTERN
NEW BRUNSWICK. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED ENHANCED CLOUDS ACROSS
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN MAINE AS WELL AS OFFSHORE. THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL IS ASSOCIATED W/THE ENHANCED CLOUDS PER THE LATEST
REGIONAL RADAR LOOP. THE HRRR & CANADIAN GEM WERE DOING WELL
W/THE LATEST SETUP. THEREFORE, DECIDED TO SCALE BACK THE QPF FROM
00-06Z AND ADJUST THE POPS STAYING W/20-40% ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER AND LEANED W/80+% POPS FOR THE HOULTON AND MILLINOCKET REGION AND
ACROSS EASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY THROUGH 09Z AND STEADIER RAIN
WILL SLOWLY FILL IN ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AND CENTRAL MAINE BY 12Z.
HRLY TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED TO FIT THE CURRENT SITUATION
SHOWING UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST AND MID
TO UPPER 40S DOWNEAST TO THE COAST.
A 1004 MB LOW CURRENTLY LIES JUST OFF THE DELMARVA COAST. THIS
SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY NORTHWARD TONIGHT AND THURSDAY, GRADUALLY
DEEPENING AS IT DOES SO. BANDS OF RAIN SPINNING AROUND THIS LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT INTO MAINE THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER,
WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING WEDGED JUST TO OUR NORTH, THE
PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE A HARD TIME MAKING NORTHWARD PROGRESS.
WIDESPREAD STEADY RAIN WILL BE THE RULE FOR THE REGION FOR THE
DAY THURSDAY. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL AND
ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA. IN PARTICULAR, AN AREA
OF HEAVY RAIN LOOKS TO SET UP ACROSS SOUTHERN MAINE EARLY THURSDAY
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A MOISTURE PLUME AND DEFORMATION BAND. THIS
BAND WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY, FOCUSING IN ON THE
FAVORED EAST-FACING UPSLOPE REGIONS OF CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST MAINE.
THEREFORE, THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THESE LOCATIONS
TOMORROW THROUGH FRIDAY. SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR MORE
INFORMATION.
THE OTHER CONCERN FOR THE NEAR TERM PERIOD IS GUSTY WINDS. A 50-55KT
JET WILL SET UP OVER COASTAL MAINE AT 925 MB LATER TODAY AND REMAIN
INTO THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE EVENTUALLY LIFTING OUT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. SOME OF THIS JET COULD WELL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE,
ESPECIALLY IN ANY HEAVIER RAIN BANDS, RESULTING IN GUSTS OF 40-45
MPH. HAVE THEREFORE ALLOWED THE WIND ADVISORY TO REMAIN FOR COASTAL
HANCOCK AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH SLOWLY LIFTING THE DEFORMATION
RN BAND FROM DOWNEAST THRU ALL OF NRN PTNS OF THE FA THU NGT THRU
FRI...SUBSEQUENTLY WE WENT WITH HIGHER 6 HRLY RNFL TOTALS WITH
THE BAND TRAVERSING ACROSS THE N...PARTICULARLY ON FRI. THIS
RESULTED IN A NET INCREASE OF A HLF INCH OF STM TOTAL RNFL OVR
THIS PTN OF THE FA COMPARED TO YSTDY`S AFTN UPDATE. FOR NOW...WE
DID NOT GO QUITE AS HEAVY AS TDY`S 12Z OPNL GFS MODEL IMPLIES...
WHICH APPEARS OVERZEALOUS WHEN COMPARING TO 09Z SREF...12Z GFS ESM
AND WPC FCSTS...SO WE SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THESE TWO
MODEL CAMPS. OTHERWISE...RN WILL TAPER TO SHWRS FROM S TO N
ACROSS THE FA FRI AFTN INTO FRI NGT. SAT WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED AS
WHAT`S LEFT OF THE LLVL MOISTURE FIELD WITH THE WRN PERIPHERY OF
THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW AFFECTS THE REGION. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR AVG
FOR DYTM HIGHS AND ABV AVG FOR NGT LOWS AS WOULD BE XPCTD WITH A
MARITIME REDUCED DIURNAL/NOCTURNAL TEMP RANGE REGIME.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WITH LITTLE OR NO BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS...ANOTHER STRONG S/WV FROM
CNTRL CAN WILL TAKE OVR WHERE THE MID ATLC UPPER LOW LEAVES OFF
SAT NGT. UNLIKE THIS CURRENT SYSTEM...THIS NEW SYSTEM FROM CNTRL
CAN WILL NOT HAVE AS MUCH ATLC MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...SO 6 HRLY
QPFS WILL BE LIGHTER SAT NGT THRU SUN NGT...THE TM THE DEVELOPING
UPPER LOW WILL TAKE TO CROSS OUR FA. HIGHEST POPS...IN THE LIKELY
RANGE ARE WEIGHTED ACROSS THE N SAT NGT INTO SUN MORN. THIS SYSTEM
WILL ALSO IMPORT COLDER AIR ALF OVR THE REGION SPCLY SUN NGT AND
ERLY MON MORN WHEN THE UPPER LOW IS DEPARTING...MEANING RN SHWRS
COULD MIX WITH OR CHG TO WET SN SHWRS MSLY OVR NRN HIER TRRN LCTNS
AT THIS TM BEFORE COMPLETELY ENDING BY MON AFTN. BOTH HI TEMPS AND
LOW TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER SUN THRU MON.
CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN IMPROVING MON AFTN...WITH CLRG SKIES MON
NGT. UNDER PTLY TO MSLY SUNNY SKIES...HI TEMPS SHOULD BE WARMER ON
TUE. AFTWRDS...THE 12Z OPNL GFS AND ECMWF MODELS DVRGNG WITH THEIR
SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE TMG OF THE NEXT S/WV AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
SYSTEM APCHG FROM THE GREAT LKS DURING THE MID WEEK...WITH THE
ECMWF BEING ABT 12 TO 24 HRS SLOWER. CONSENSUS MODEL BLEND POPS
SUGGEST CHC SHWR POPS FOR WED...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HI REGARDING
THIS TMG. LOWS TEMPS TUE NGT AND HI TEMPS WED SHOULD BE MILD...BUT
NOT LOOKING AS WARM AS IT DID FOR THESE DAYS AS COMPARED TO YSTDY`S
GUIDANCE ATTM.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY WORSEN THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WIDESPREAD RAIN MOVES INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER,
THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS OF KBGR AND KBHB HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF
DROPPING TO IFR CONDITIONS, MAINLY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN AT THESE TWO
LOCATIONS, WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KT POSSIBLE.
SHORT TO LONG TERM: IFR CLG AND RN/SHWR CONDITIONS XPCTD ACROSS
THE REGION FRI...IMPROVING TO MVFR OVR DOWNEAST SITES FRI NGT AND
THEN ALL SITES ON SAT. MVFR CONDITIONS CONT ON SUN...WITH POSSIBLE
IFR OVR NRN TAF SITES SUN NGT. CONDITIONS IMPROVE ON MON TO VFR
DOWNEAST SITES AND MVFR NRN TAF SITES.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF OUR
WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN GUSTING WELL INTO
THE 40-45 KT RANGE. SEAS ARE GENERALLY HAVE BEEN 11 TO 13 FT, WITH
SOME SWELLS REACHING NEARLY 14 FT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST.
COASTAL FLOODING DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AN ISSUE DUE TO THE
PRIMARY WAVE DIRECTION. ALSO, THE HIGH TIDES ARE NOT THE HIGHEST
OF THE LUNAR MONTH. A CALL TO BOTH HANCOCK AND WASHINGTON
COUNTIES REVEALED NO OVERWASH PROBLEMS AT THIS TIME. IN ADDITION,
OUR LOCAL WAVE RUNUP MODEL DOES NOT INDICATE THAT THERE WILL BE
ANY SPLASH OVER. HOWEVER, LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE
EYE ON WIND AND WAVE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
SHORT TO LONG TERM: THE GLW THAT BEGINS ERLY IN THE SHORT TERM
WILL NEED TO BE REPLACED BY A TRANSITIONAL SCA FOR WINDS AND SPCLY
WVS...SPCLY FOR OUTER WATERS THU NGT INTO FRI...WITH ALL WATERS
BLO SCA CRITERIA BY FRI NGT. WINDS AND WVS WILL REMAIN BLO OR NEAR
MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS SAT THRU MON.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE, A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 3 TO 5
INCHES ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST MAINE, THIS WILL BE A MULTI-DAY
ACCUMULATION. MAINSTEM RIVERS ARE CURRENTLY NEAR NORMAL FLOWS, AND
ALL OF THE THE NERFC`S ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE KEEPS THESE WATERWAYS
BELOW FLOOD STAGE THROUGH THE EVENT. HOWEVER, SMALL STREAMS COULD
VERY WELL REACH BANKFULL. ALSO, AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE COULD
EXPERIENCE MINOR FLOODING, ESPECIALLY SINCE STORM DRAINS WILL
LIKELY BE CLOGGED BY LEAVES AND OTHER DEBRIS. THEREFORE, THE FLOOD
WATCH HAS BEEN CONTINUED FOR HANCOCK, WASHINGTON, AND CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PENOBSCOT AND PISCATAQUIS COUNTIES.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
FOR MEZ010-011-015>017-029>032.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
545 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014
THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY QUIET BY OCTOBER STANDARDS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER TODAY
WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE. TONIGHT A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL PROVIDE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.
SKIES WILL TURN PARTLY SUNNY ON FRIDAY WITH A COLD FRONT SET TO MOVE
THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. AT THIS POINT IT
LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH DRY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES THE REST OF THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 50S TO
AROUND 60.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 544 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014
HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
THROUGH 1000 AM. FOG HAS EXPANDED QUITE A BIT IN THE LAST HALF
HOUR WITH STRATUS BEGINNING TO SHOW UP IN THE FOG SATELLITE
PRODUCT WHICH IS INDICATIVE OF A MORE WIDESPREAD FOG. HAVE QUARTER
MILE VISIBILITIES IN ALL AREAS NOW AND IT WILL LIKELY EXPAND TO
AREAS NOT CURRENTLY SEEING IT. A LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW IS IN PLACE
IN THE LOWEST 50MB/S PER THE RUC13 AND THIS SHOULD ADVECT IT EVEN
TO THE LAKESHORE AREAS WITH TIME. WE STILL HAVE ABOUT 2.5 HOURS
BEFORE SUNRISE...SO IT SHOULD EXPAND AND BECOME MORE DENSE. NPWGRR
IS ALREADY OUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014
LIMITED CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM BUT THE FOCUS WAS ON EXTENT OF
FOG THIS MORNING...CHANCE FOR RAIN TONIGHT AND SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN
CHANCES SATURDAY MORNING.
AS FOR THE FOG...THINK WE ARE LOOKING AT PATCHY RADIATIONAL GROUND
FOG THIS MORNING. SEVERAL SITES ARE CURRENTLY AT A QUARTER OF A MILE
VISIBILITY SO WE WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON WHETHER OR NOT IT EXPANDS
AND BECOMES WORTHY OF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY. FOG SATELLITE PRODUCT IS
BEGINNING TO SHOW HINTS AT STRATUS FORMING.
REGARDING RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT...IT LOOKS ABOUT THE SAME AS THE LAST
FEW NIGHTS...30/40 PCT CHANCE ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST DURING THE
EVENING. A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY SEEN IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER
THE DAKOTAS MOVES THROUGH OUT REGION TONIGHT. SOME WEAK MOISTURE
TRANSPORT OCCURS AT 850MB/S ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH. FEEL
THE BEST CHANCES WILL OCCUR EARLY ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY
131...BECOMING ISOLATED OVERNIGHT AND ENDING.
ANOTHER BRIEF SHOT AT SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN MAY COME LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT TRAVERSES THE AREA. THE
MAIN UPPER SUPPORT WITH THIS FRONT IS WELL NORTH OF SOUTHWEST
LOWER...BUT THERE IS A PUSH OF SOME MOISTURE INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTH. THE ECMWF IS PAINTING SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIP ALONG THE LAKE
MICHIGAN SHORE SATURDAY MORNING. KEPT THE FORECAST DRY AT THIS POINT
AS NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH WE WILL SEE ANYTHING.
OTHERWISE...QUIET TODAY OUTSIDE OF SOME MORNING FOG. WE SHOULD
BECOME AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE
PEELS OFF TO THE EAST.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014
THE UPPER LOW MOVES TO EASTERN CANADA TO START THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
THIS WILL ALLOW UPPER AND SURFACE RIDGING TO BUILD OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THE CHILLY TEMPS WILL MOVE OUT OF THE REGION AS THIS
OCCURS WITH SOLID WARM ADVECTION BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE LATTER PART
OF THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY...BUT WE SHOULD SEE WARM
ADVECTION CLOUDS ARRIVE ON THE HEELS OF THIS WARMUP SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOULD MOVE IN MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT. THE
VIGOROUS SYSTEM THAT WAS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR THIS MORNING OFF THE
BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST SHOULD MOVE OVER THE ROCKIES AND HELP PUMP
WARM AND MOIST GULF AIR INTO THE REGION. THERE IS POOR AGREEMENT IN
THE MODELS ON THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM INTO MID WEEK BUT IT APPEARS
A COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT. SO THE RAIN
CHANCES SHOULD PEAK IN THIS TIME FRAME. ADDED THUNDER TO THE
FORECAST FOR TUESDAY GIVEN THE HIGHER TEMPS/DEWPOINTS EXPECTED WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT. IT SHOULD TURN COLDER AGAIN ONCE THE
FRONT PASSES WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 50S BY WED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 117 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014
A WIDE MIX OF CONDITIONS WAS ACROSS THE REGION AS OF 05Z...FROM VFR
TO IFR. SKIES WERE MAINLY CLEAR...BUT THERE WERE PATCHES OF
STRATUS AROUND. ONE PATCH WAS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL LOWER...NEAR
Y70...WITH ANOTHER PATCH OVER NW OH. BOTH AREAS WERE MOVING SLOWLY
WEST. THERE WAS ALSO PATCHES OF FOG AROUND WHICH SHOULD EXPAND
SOMEWHAT.
TRENDED THE TAFS MAINLY MVFR...BUT EXPECT THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME
IFR AROUND THROUGH SUNRISE. AFTER 13Z EXPECT THE FOG AND STRATUS
TO DISSIPATE.
BY LATE THIS EVENING A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. SOME SHOWERS WILL
MOVE IN...ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MVFR FOR WESTERN TAF SITES.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014
NO MARINE CONCERNS TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING
EAST ALLOWING FOR LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW TO TAKE HOLD. THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR WINDS AND WAVES BECOMING AN ISSUE WILL BE FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION. SATURDAY
ESPECIALLY...20-30 KNOT NORTHWEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED WHICH WILL
BOOST WAVE HEIGHTS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014
STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY HYDRO ISSUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. VERY
LIMITED RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. THE FIRST CHANCE FOR RAIN
WILL BE TONIGHT...BUT NOT EXPECTED TOTALS MORE THAN 0.05 ANYWHERE.
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RIVER LEVELS
REMAIN LOW AT THE PRESENT TIME.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ037>040-
043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DUKE
SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...JK
HYDROLOGY...DUKE
MARINE...DUKE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
333 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER RIDGE FROM THE THE
SRN MS VALLEY THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES AND AN UPSTREAM TROUGH
FROM SASK INTO THE WRN PLAINS. AT THE SFC...SRLY FLOW WAS INCREASING
THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY WRN UPPER MI AS THE SFC RIDGE SHIFTS OFF
TO THE EAST INTO LOWER MI. VIS LOOP SHOWED SOME PATCHY MID CLOUDS
STREAMING INTO SW UPPER MI WITH CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REST OF THE
CWA.
TONIGHT AND WED...MDLS WERE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT BRINGING THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH INTO TO WRN MN BY 12Z/THU AND WRN UPPER MI BY 00Z/FRI.
EVEN THROUGH THERE MAY SEVERAL SEPARATE SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE
TROUGH...THE MODELS HAVE ALSO TRENDED TOWARD BRINGING ONE OF THE
STRONGER SHRTWVS TOWARD THE CWA. THE MODERATE 700-300MB QVECTOR CONV
ALONG WITH SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE INFLOW (PWAT REACHES AOA 1.0 INCH OR
220 PCT OF NORMAL)WILL BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LIKELY POPS THROUGH THE
AREA BY THU AFTERNOON. THE PCPN MAY BE DELAYED AT THE ONSET AS THE
SFC-800 MB DRY LAYER PERSISTS UNTIL THE STRONGER DYNAMICS ARRIVE
INTO W UPPER MI LATE TONIGHT AND CENTRL UPPER MI BY AROUND 18Z.
RELATIVELY LIGHT QPF OF 0.2 INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED GIVEN THE
MODEST DYNAMICS AND PROGRESSIVE PATTERN.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014
NAM SHOWS A 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SW 12Z FRI WITH A SHORTWAVE
OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. THIS SHORTWAVE HEADS EAST AND AFFECTS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES FRI NIGHT WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE PLAINS
SAT NIGHT. NAM BRINGS IN SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE FRI
NIGHT WITH SOME LIMITED MOISTURE WHICH MOVES OUT SAT MORNING. LOOKS
LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PCPN WILL STILL BE WELL NORTH AND EAST OF
THE AREA AND KEPT IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE ERN CWA AS THE AREA
GETS BRUSHED BY THIS SHORTWAVE. ON SATURDAY...WILL BE QUITE GUSTY
FOR WINDS.
IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. WITH A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS AND A TROUGH IN THE
PACIFIC NW 12Z SUN. THIS RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z
MON WITH TROUGHING MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES. THE TROUGH MOVES INTO
THE PLAINS 12Z TUE AND LINGERS INTO WED. THE ECMWF IS MORE AMPLIFIED
WITH THIS TROUGH THAN THE GFS IS AND SEEMS TO BE KEEPING A SOUTHERN
STREAM AND NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES SEPARATE. GFS IS MUCH WEAKER
WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE. WITH THE TROUGH IN THE AREA AND
A FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...CHANCES FOR PCPN LOOK GOOD WITH
TEMPERATURES GOING FROM ABOVE NORMAL AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
EXTENDED TO NEAR NORMAL AT THE END OF THE FORECAST. WILL BE DRY ON
SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014
A WEAKENING DISTURBANCE AND FRONT WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHRA
INTO UPPER MI THRU THU. INITIALLY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE
AT KIWD/KCMX...BUT AS THE BAND OF MOISTURE AND SHRA ALONG/AHEAD OF
FRONT CONTINUES TO SHIFT E...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO FALL TO MVFR THIS
MORNING/EARLY AFTN...BEGINNING FIRST AT KIWD. NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION THAT A PERIOD OF IFR COULD OCCUR AROUND THE TIME PCPN ENDS.
AT KSAW...COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER AND UPSLOPE SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS LED
TO DEVELOPMENT OF LIFR CONDITIONS. LIFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE UNTIL MID MORNING WHEN A BREAK OUT TO VFR SHOULD OCCUR.
MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY RETURN LATE IN THE DAY AT KSAW AS WEAKENING
FRONT AND SHRA APPROACH. ON ANOTHER NOTE...WITH LOW LEVEL JET NOSING
INTO FAR WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN LLWS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AT
KIWD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 410 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014
SRLY WINDS WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE DEPARTS THE AREA AND A TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WIND GUSTS
DURING THIS TIME SHOULD STAY AOB 20KTS. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ON FRIDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT SWEEPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
ON FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO
30KTS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION FOR SUNDAY AND DIMINISH WINDS BELOW 20KTS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
122 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER RIDGE FROM THE THE
SRN MS VALLEY THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES AND AN UPSTREAM TROUGH
FROM SASK INTO THE WRN PLAINS. AT THE SFC...SRLY FLOW WAS INCREASING
THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY WRN UPPER MI AS THE SFC RIDGE SHIFTS OFF
TO THE EAST INTO LOWER MI. VIS LOOP SHOWED SOME PATCHY MID CLOUDS
STREAMING INTO SW UPPER MI WITH CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REST OF THE
CWA.
TONIGHT AND WED...MDLS WERE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT BRINGING THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH INTO TO WRN MN BY 12Z/THU AND WRN UPPER MI BY 00Z/FRI.
EVEN THROUGH THERE MAY SEVERAL SEPARATE SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE
TROUGH...THE MODELS HAVE ALSO TRENDED TOWARD BRINGING ONE OF THE
STRONGER SHRTWVS TOWARD THE CWA. THE MODERATE 700-300MB QVECTOR CONV
ALONG WITH SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE INFLOW (PWAT REACHES AOA 1.0 INCH OR
220 PCT OF NORMAL)WILL BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LIKELY POPS THROUGH THE
AREA BY THU AFTERNOON. THE PCPN MAY BE DELAYED AT THE ONSET AS THE
SFC-800 MB DRY LAYER PERSISTS UNTIL THE STRONGER DYNAMICS ARRIVE
INTO W UPPER MI LATE TONIGHT AND CENTRL UPPER MI BY AROUND 18Z.
RELATIVELY LIGHT QPF OF 0.2 INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED GIVEN THE
MODEST DYNAMICS AND PROGRESSIVE PATTERN.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014
GIVEN THE SIGNIFICANT LOSS OF THE SATELLITE INGEST INTO THE
NUMERICAL MODELS /WITH NESDIS SATELLITE COMMS ISSUES CAUSING MISSING
OR OLD IMAGES ON WEB PAGES/...UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FCST SOLUTIONS
MAY BE HIGHER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS PERIOD. THIS HAS BEEN THE CASE
SINCE THE 22/00Z RUNS. AT THIS TIME...THERE IS NO DETAILS ON WHEN
THE ISSUE WILL BE FIXED.
EXPECT LINGERING SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT THE E PROGRESSION OF
ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN WILL BE LIMITED. A SFC RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER E
LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH LAKE HURON THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. WITH LIGHT
S WINDS AND 850MB TEMPS RISING TO 8-11C...HIGHS ON FRIDAY COULD BE
IN THE LOW 60S OVER THE W HALF OF THE CWA.
THE NEXT SFC LOW OVER OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL CROSS MANITOBA ON FRIDAY...AND N-CENTRAL ONTARIO FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL NEAR THE NE PORTIONS
OF THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT.
AS THE SFC HIGH WILL QUICKLY PUSH IN FROM THE N PLAINS AND MID MS
VALLEY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...AS THE LOW EXITS INTO ONTARIO AND THE
NEW ENGLAND STATES. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. THE
MAIN WEATHER FEATURE WILL BE INCREASING WNW WINDS ON SATURDAY...WITH
GUSTS NEARING 25-35MPH /STRONGEST NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AND ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN/. INCREASED WINDS A BIT EARLIER THAN OUR PREVIOUS
FCST FOR SATURDAY.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN AT THE SFC. FCST MODELS ARE STILL CONSISTENT WITH
AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM S CENTRAL CANADA
THROUGH THE S PLAINS STATES AT 12Z MONDAY TO CROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BEFORE EXITING INTO ONTARIO.
WHETHER OR NOT A SFC TROUGH LINGERS BEHIND THE LOW INTO WEDNESDAY IS
STILL IN QUESTION...LEADING TO A LOW CONFIDENCE FCST STILL FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON ON. NEXT WEDNESDAY IS A COMPLETE TOSS UP...WITH
850MB TEMPS OFF THE 12Z RUNS RANGING FROM -5C TO 3C. WILL ADD A
SMALL MENTION OF SNOW SHOWERS IN N-NW FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. THERE
MAY NOT BE ENOUGH PRECIP IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT...AS A SECONDARY
LOW WRAPS NEARS FROM THE MID MS VALLEY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014
A WEAKENING DISTURBANCE AND FRONT WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHRA
INTO UPPER MI THRU THU. INITIALLY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE
AT KIWD/KCMX...BUT AS THE BAND OF MOISTURE AND SHRA ALONG/AHEAD OF
FRONT CONTINUES TO SHIFT E...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO FALL TO MVFR THIS
MORNING/EARLY AFTN...BEGINNING FIRST AT KIWD. NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION THAT A PERIOD OF IFR COULD OCCUR AROUND THE TIME PCPN ENDS.
AT KSAW...COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER AND UPSLOPE SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS LED
TO DEVELOPMENT OF LIFR CONDITIONS. LIFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE UNTIL MID MORNING WHEN A BREAK OUT TO VFR SHOULD OCCUR.
MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY RETURN LATE IN THE DAY AT KSAW AS WEAKENING
FRONT AND SHRA APPROACH. ON ANOTHER NOTE...WITH LOW LEVEL JET NOSING
INTO FAR WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN LLWS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AT
KIWD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 410 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014
SRLY WINDS WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE DEPARTS THE AREA AND A TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WIND GUSTS
DURING THIS TIME SHOULD STAY AOB 20KTS. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ON FRIDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT SWEEPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
ON FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO
30KTS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION FOR SUNDAY AND DIMINISH WINDS BELOW 20KTS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
402 AM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 402 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014
Early morning satellite and radar imagery show a notable trough
crossing the Plains of Canada and the United States while an
associated weak surface front which has yet to make it into our
forecast area. Prefrontal lift has shifted into eastern Kansas and
northwest Missouri overnight bringing a progressive line of showers
to the region. Short range hi-res models like the HRRR and RUC point
at the current round of showers progressing slowly east this morning
along with the trough, but with the better upper level kinematics of
the trough shifting to our northeast, and weak to non-existent
surface convergence with the front, there wont be much to keep
storms going through the day. As a result, expect early morning
stormy activity to persist past sunrise but that it will likely fade
away during the afternoon hours. Only concern for the afternoon
hours is if the low clouds hold strong, providing an environment for
drizzle. Current model soundings do not look to support drizzle, so
have left it out for now. Otherwise, temperatures behind this system
are not particularly cool as highs in the 60s and 70s still look
possible across the region today.
After the trough moves through today a broad ridge will quickly move
in and dominate the weather for Friday and through the weekend. This
will result in a rebound in temperatures with our already above
normal readings continuing their run through the weekend. In fact,
expect some areas across the Missouri-Kansas border region may see
afternoon highs top out around 80 degrees over the weekend.
Next chance at stormy weather will arrive early next week, Monday
into Tuesday as a trough swings out of the mountainous west through
the Plains. Current model solutions advertise another round of
storms moving through Monday night through Tuesday. Also, with the
returning storms will come some more seasonally normal temperatures
as our highs in the 70s will retreat back into the 60s. However,
overnight low look to only range as low as the 40s, so it looks like
any frost or freeze issue might be at least another week away.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1145 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
Line of showers are approaching the KS/MO border but the timing of
arrival at the TAF sites have been pushed back slightly again with
this update (~07Z for MCI/MKC, a bit sooner for IXD/STJ). While VFR
conditions are anticipated to prevail throughout much of this
forecast period, could see some drops to MVFR with any heavier
showers that may traverse the terminals. However, this activity is
still expected to generally remain on the lighter side. Winds will be
at their strongest overnight through the morning hours on Thursday,
backing off as the clouds and precip clear in the afternoon hours.
Southerly to southwesterly winds will dominate.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...LG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1152 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 353 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
Late this afternoon an elongated area of showers and isolated
thunderstorms extends from the Dakotas southward into north central
Kansas and further south scattered into central Texas. This
activity is associated with an upper trough propagating through the
northern Plains along with a secondary vorticity maximum in the
southern stream moving into western Oklahoma. Short range models
such as the HRRR and local WRF seemed to be doing a good job with
the timing of the precipitation into the forecast area. Still
expecting rain to spread into the area first in northwest Missouri
later this evening, then gradually across the rest of the forecast
area after midnight.
Upper features and weak surface boundary gradually exit the area
tomorrow bringing an end to the precipitation from west to east. A
few of the model time sections try to hold on to some cloud cover
during the day tomorrow especially over northeast Missouri, however
still anticipating seeing improving conditions in the afternoon
particularly over eastern Kansas and western Missouri.
Air mass behind the surface boundary moving through on Thursday not
significantly different than air mass currently over region so if
clouds can clear would still expect temperatures to rebound to above
seasonal values tomorrow. Significant warming of the lower and
middle layers of the atmosphere is forecast for Thursday night and
Friday. 850hPa temperatures approach +18C by 00Z Saturday in eastern
Kansas and western Missouri and as a result surface temperatures
should warm into the middle and upper 70s on Friday.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 353 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
A very pleasant weekend in store as a broad upper level ridge builds
into the country`s mid-section. This puts the CWA under northwest
flow aloft and surface winds shifting around from more northerly at
the start of the weekend to southeasterly by Sunday. With 850mb
temperatures progged to be in the mid teens, and thermal ridge axis
across the CWA Saturday afternoon, wouldn`t be surprised to see a
few locations reach 80 degrees by mid-afternoon. The upper level
ridge will shift eastward and over the area by Sunday, and allow for
another beautiful fall day with highs reaching the low 80s. However,
these reminiscent summerish days won`t last long given an
approaching trough that will bring another chance for rain and a few
thunderstorms. Southerly winds will help advect higher dewpoints
into the region Sunday and Monday increasing instability across the
region. With 500-1000 J/kg of CAPE forecast, cannot rule out a
rumble or two Monday afternoon ahead of the approaching trough.
Long-range models refuse to come to an agreement on the timing and
southern extent this trough will take. The EC takes a more aggressive
and slower approach by deepening the low as it moves across NM and
the TX panhandle. The GFS is less aggressive and keeps the main
trough across the Northern Plains with flow becoming more zonal by
Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1145 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
Line of showers are approaching the KS/MO border but the timing of
arrival at the TAF sites have been pushed back slightly again with
this update (~07Z for MCI/MKC, a bit sooner for IXD/STJ). While VFR
conditions are anticipated to prevail throughout much of this
forecast period, could see some drops to MVFR with any heavier
showers that may traverse the terminals. However, this activity is
still expected to generally remain on the lighter side. Winds will be
at their strongest overnight through the morning hours on Thursday,
backing off as the clouds and precip clear in the afternoon hours.
Southerly to southwesterly winds will dominate.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Mitchell
LONG TERM...PMM
AVIATION...lg
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
354 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014
H5 ANALYSIS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS A FAIRLY
ACTIVE PATTERN ACROSS CANADA AND THE CONUS. CLOSED LOW PRESSURE WAS
NOTED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH A SECOND LOW OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA. IN BETWEEN...LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER SRN MANITOBA WITH
A TROUGH EXTENDING SWD INTO THE DAKOTAS AND NEBRASKA. SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO LIFT EAST AND WERE IMPACTING FAR SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA
AS OF 3 AM CDT. BEHIND THIS AREA OF EXITING PRECIPITATION...AREAS OF
FOG HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN...CENTRAL AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. VISBYS WERE GENERALLY
UNDER ONE MILE WITH QUARTER MILE VISBYS REPORTED AT NORTH PLATTE AND
ORD. VISBYS HAVE BEEN FLUCTUATING AROUND 1/2SM AT ONEILL AND BROKEN
BOW. BASED ON ROAD CAMS AND SFC VISBYS...DECIDED TO HOIST A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING...FOR
LOCATIONS ROUGHLY EAST OF A LINE FROM MAYWOOD...TO NORTH PLATTE...TO
ONEILL. TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 AM CDT...RANGED FROM 36 AT OGALLALA TO
44 AT NORTH PLATTE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE MAIN
FORECAST CHALLENGE IS TEMPERATURES. FOR THIS MORNING...BASED ON THE
LATEST HRRR AND NAM SOLNS...FOG SHOULD BURN OFF FROM WEST TO EAST BY
LATE MORNING. DENSE FOG SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT BY MID MORNING AND WILL
CONTINUE THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 10 AM CDT. FOR THE REMAINDER
OF TODAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE DAKOTAS AND
NEBRASKA...WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL
ALLOW LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING TO BUILD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND NORTHERN
NEBRASKA TODAY. SPREAD BETWEEN THE MET AND MAV HIGHS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON IS FAIRLY MINIMAL...WITH THE MAV RUNNING 3 TO 10 DEGREES
WARMER COMPARED TO THE MET GUIDANCE. FOR THE FCST...TRENDED HIGHS
TOWARD THE COOLER MET GUIDANCE. THIS IS DUE TO FOG AND EXPECTED
CLOUDINESS...ESPECIALLY IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA THIS MORNING.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S IN THE EAST...TO THE
UPPER 70S IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST. FOR TONIGHT...ZONAL FLOW WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...WHILE AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. WESTERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS THE TROUGH TRACKS EAST...EFFECTIVELY ENDING ANY
THREAT IN THE CWA FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG TONIGHT. CLEAR SKIES
AND WESTERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW LOWS TO DROP INTO THE 40S
TONIGHT...WITH THE COOLEST READINGS IN THE WEST WHERE DRIER AIR
EXISTS. LIKE HIGHS TODAY...THE MAV GUIDANCE IS WARMER ON THE LOWS
TONIGHT COMPARED TO THE MET GUIDANCE. BASED ON THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS...THE GUIDANCE LOWS HAVE BEEN TOO WARM COMPARED ACTUALITY. WITH
THIS IN MIND AND GIVEN THE DRY CONDS IN PLACE...OPTED FOR THE COOLER
MET GUIDANCE LOWS FOR TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE UNITED STATES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FRIDAY
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A VERY WARM DAY...AS A SURFACE TROUGH
MAKES ITS WAY EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE MORNING. A
FAVORABLE WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WIND BEHIND THE FRONT WILL HELP TO
ENHANCE THE WARMING...AS WARM AIR ALOFT /H850MB TEMPS OF 20 TO
23C/ IS EASILY MIXED TO THE SURFACE. HIGHS APPEAR THEY WILL AT
LEAST TOP OUT IN THE MID 70S...WITH PERHAPS LOWER 80S ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING JUST A BIT OF
COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT HIGHS OF 70 TO 75
DEGREES STILL ARE EXPECTED BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
A CHANGE TO MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK. A LONG
WAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS EAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...WITH AN ASSOCIATED VIGOROUS PACIFIC COLD FRONT
USHERING IN COOLER AIR...AND LOWERING HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE
MID 50S AND LOWER 60S. MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WILL PROGRESS EAST
TO WEST ACROSS THE AREA AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA.
MOISTURE/HUMIDITY IN BOTH THE LOWER AND MID/UPPER LEVELS DOESN/T
LOOK THAT GREAT...SO DESPITE DECENT LIFT AS THE FGEN BAND CROSSES
THE AREA...THE LACK OF MOISTURE WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION...AND
WILL ONLY INCREASE POPS A BIT INTO THE LOW CHANCE CATEGORY AT THIS
TIME.
MODELS DIFFER BEYOND TUESDAY...WITH THE GFS BECOMING MORE
AMPLIFIED AND ALLOWS COLDER CANADIAN AIR TO SPILL SOUTH INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF BUILDS ANOTHER LARGE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH A WARMING TREND. THE
ENSEMBLE MEAN SEEMS TO BE SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN...SO AT THIS POINT
A NEAR CLIMATOLOGY FORECAST SEEMS MOST REASONABLE BEYOND TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014
AREAS OF FOG WERE DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA AND CENTRAL
NEBRASKA EARLY THIS MORNING. VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO
AROUND A HALF MILE AT TIMES ALONG RIVER VALLEYS AND GENERALLY EAST
OF A NORTH PLATTE KLBF TO VALENTINE KVTN. HAVE INCLUDED FOG IN KLBF
TAF SITE ALONG THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY. SOME IFR CEILINGS ARE
POSSIBLE FROM KBBW TO KONL. LIGHT WINDS OVER NIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG
DISSIPATING EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ010-
027>029-038-059-071.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...CLB
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...CLB
PROVIDE MORE DETAIL ON THE MAIN FORECAST DISCUSSION LATER THIS
MORNING...BUT THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT ENOUGH EVIDENCE EXISTED FROM
A COMBINATION OF CURRENT OBS AND SHORT-TERM VISIBILITY MODEL PROGS
FROM THE RAP13/HRRR TO SUPPORT EXPANDING SEVERAL MORE COUNTIES
ONTO THE ORIGINAL DENSE FOG ADVISORY ISSUED BACK AT 950 PM. AS A
RESULT...ONLY 4 COUNTIES IN NORTH CENTRAL KS AND 3 COUNTIES ALONG
HWY 81 IN THE FAR EASTERN NEB CWA REMAIN VOID OF A FORMAL FOG
HEADLINE AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL BE KEEPING OUT A CLOSE EYE FOR
POSSIBLE FURTHER EXPANSION. IN ADDITION...TACKED 1 MORE HOUR ONTO
THE ADVISORY TO RUN IT THROUGH 10 AM...AND IT/S CERTAINLY POSSIBLE
THIS MIGHT NOT BE LONG ENOUGH IN SOME PLACES.
THE BOTTOM LINE...FOLKS WITHIN MUCH OF THE CWA NEED TO BE PREPARED
FOR A FOGGY MORNING COMMUTE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1005 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
KUEX INDICATES THE RAIN HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA FOR
THE MOST PART. THAT SAID...SHOWER ACTIVITY PERSISTS OVER PORTIONS
OF JEWELL AND MITCHELL COUNTIES IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AT THIS
HOUR...BUT THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AS IT ALSO MOVES
EAST OF THE AREA.
BY FAR THE BIGGEST CONCERN IS THE EXPANDING FOG ACROSS THE AREA.
MULTIPLE SITES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...GENERALLY WEST OF
HIGHWAY 281...HAVE DROPPED TO AROUND 1/4SM OR LOWER. RAINFALL FROM
EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH A LIGHT SURFACE WIND AND
PLENTY OF RADIATIONAL COOLING ONCE THE CLOUDS CLEAR...SHOULD
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT AND GIVEN THIS...WENT
AHEAD WITH A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 281. IT REMAINS POSSIBLE THIS
ADVISORY WILL NEED TO BE EXPANDED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...BUT THE CURRENT ADVISORY REFLECTS THE CURRENT DEVELOPMENT
OF FOG.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CUTTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING EAST
AS WELL. A SOLID LINE/AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS
MARCHING ACROSS THE CWA...BUT THE TIME FRAME IS LIMITED FOR
PRECIPITATION AS FLOW REMAINS QUITE PROGRESSIVE...HELPING THE COLD
FRONT TO CONTINUE TO SWEEP EAST. SOME SOLUTIONS...SUCH AS THE NAM
AND HRRR...INDICATE AN AREA OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWERS TO
DEVELOP THIS EVENING BEHIND THE CURRENT BAND/BANDS OF RAIN. THIS
WILL DELAY THE EXIT OF PRECIPITATION IN OUR EAST/SOUTHEAST A
BIT...AND COULD LINGER UNTIL ABOUT MIDNIGHT OR SO IN OUR EAST
SOUTHEAST.
A BIG CONCERN IS FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT. BOTH THE SREF AND RAP
INDICATE THAT AT LEAST SOME OF THE CWA IS IN FOR SOME FOG...AS THE
SKY CLEARS AND WIND BECOMES LIGHT BEHIND THE WAVE/COLD FRONT. WITH
MOST AREAS GETTING A DECENT SHOT OF RAIN TODAY...I HAVE DECIDED TO
HIT THE FOG WORDING QUITE A BIT HARDER...WITH AREAS OF FOG AND
PATCHY DENSE FOG WITH VISIBILITY OF HALF MILE OR LESS. WE WILL NEED
TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE HRRR VISIBILITY LATER THIS EVENING. IF THIS
NUMERICAL MODEL HITS THE FOG FAIRLY HARD AS WELL...WE MAY NEED A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY TONIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING.
BEHIND THE TROUGH/COLD FRONT THURSDAY...AIR BEHIND THE FRONT IS
MILD...BUT I DID LOWER THEM A BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...BASED
ON BCCONSRAW...WHICH I TEND TO LIKE THE DAY AFTER A COLD FRONT
PASSAGE.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
ALOFT: THE MEAN RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE CNTRL USA THRU SUN...
UNTIL THE TROF OVER THE E PAC MOVES ONSHORE. THIS TROF WILL MOVE
THRU HERE MON AND WILL BE THE NEXT POTENTIAL WX MAKER. LOW-AMPLITUDE
WNW FLOW ARRIVE IN ITS WAKE TUE-WED.
SURFACE: LOW PRES WILL BE HEADING E ACROSS CANADA. ITS ASSOCIATED
COOL FRONT WILL SLIP THRU HERE FRI NIGHT WITH NRN PLAINS HIGH PRES
BUILDING IN SAT. MEANWHILE THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING ONSHORE IN
THE W. A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FCST ISSUE HERE /SEE BELOW/. THE COOL FRONT
WILL MOVE THRU SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING WITH COOL HIGH PRES TO
FOLLOW TUE-WED.
THE DAILY DETAILS...
FRI: WARM SECTOR. WONDERFULLY WARM WITHIN THE THERMAL RIDGE. THE
WARMEST DAY OF THIS FCST. NO RECORDS THREATENED...BUT AFTERNOON
TEMPS WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF THEM.
SAT: NOT AS WARM...BUT STILL A SOLID 10F WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR LATE
OCT. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN TEMPS. GEM/EC/GFS/NAM 2M TEMPS ARE
SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER THAN MEX MOS /BY 10F/. AND WITH NO ESSENTIALLY
NO CLOUD COVER EXPECTED PER VERTICAL CROSS SECTIONS...AM NOT SURE
WHY. SO THE DIFF WAS SPLIT INCORPORATING THE PREVIOUS FCST WITH A
BIAS CORRECTION WHICH DID NUDGE TEMPS DOWN A LITTLE. ANYWAY YOU
SLICE IT...LIGHT WINDS AND STILL VERY NICE.
SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING: WE MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO MENTION A
CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS AS THE EC/GFS ARE INDICATING A POTENTIAL
INSTABILITY BURST AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT /K-INDEX 30 AND SHOWALTER
INDEX -1/ AS HIGHER 850 MB DEWPOINTS ADVECT BACK IN FROM THE S.
FOR WHAT IT/S WORTH 06Z/12Z GFS ARE OUTPUTTING SOME DRIBBLES OF
LIGHT QPF.
SUN: WE MAY HAVE PROBLEMS WITH TEMPS. THERE COULD BE A LINGERING
BATCH OF MULTI-LAYERED CLOUD COVER. THE POCKETS OF COOLER 850 MB
TEMPS ARE THE HINT. BELIEVE WE MAY BE TOO WARM. MULTI-MODEL 2M TEMPS
SUGGEST WE MAY BE TOO WARM BY AT LEAST 5F.
SUN NIGHT: COOL FRONTAL PASSAGE AND PROBABLY DRY. SOUNDINGS SHOW A
CAP.
MON: BREEZY AND COOLER IN COLD AIR ADVECTION. POSSIBLY A POST-
FRONTAL SHWR OR TWO. TEMPS RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL.
TUE: EVEN COOLER. TEMPS PROBABLY 5F BELOW NORMAL.
ANOTHER POTENTIAL FCST SNAG TUE IS THE 00Z/12Z EC HAVE A MUCH
SHARPER/SHORTER WAVELENGTH TO THE UPPER TROF MOVING THRU. THEY
DIFFER ON LOCATION BUT THIS SUGGESTS A LOW COULD FORM ON THE FRONT S
AND E OF THE FCST AREA.
WED: DRY WITH TEMP RECOVERY TO NEAR NORMAL POSSIBLE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014
NEEDLESS TO SAY...BY FAR THE PRIMARY AVIATION ISSUE IS THE ONGOING
DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE FOG WITHIN THE AREA RESULTING IN LIFR/VLIFR
VISIBILITY AND CEILING. THERE IS INCREASING EVIDENCE THAT THESE
VERY POOR CONDITIONS MAY BE VERY SLOW TO IMPROVE EVEN WELL PAST
SUNRISE THIS MORNING...AND HAVE AIMED THINGS ON A MORE PESSIMISTIC
NOTE WITH LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH 16Z...AND EVEN
THEN AT LEAST AN MVFR CEILING HANGING TOUGH INTO AT LEAST THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BEYOND MID-
MORNING IS ADMITTEDLY RATHER LOW. SURFACE BREEZES SHOULD NOT BE
MUCH OF AN ISSUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A LIGHT/VARIABLE REGIME
THIS MORNING EVENTUALLY BECOMING MORE ESTABLISHED FROM THE SOUTH
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...BUT AT SUSTAINED SPEEDS LARGELY
BELOW 10KT.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ039>041-
046>049-060>063-072>076-082>086.
KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ005-017.
&&
$$
UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1139 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MOST AREAS ACROSS WESTERN...CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST ZONES THROUGH PERIOD. HOWEVER...AREAS OF FOG WILL
EXPAND IN COVERAGE DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.
LOW CLOUDS ALREADY IN PLACE ALONG THE EXTREME EASTERN BORDER
INCLUDING KCVN AND WILL EXPAND TO THE NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH BUT TAFS CURRENTLY CARRY
TEMPO MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES STARTING 09Z AT KROW AND 11Z AT
KTCC. LOCAL FOG OR FREEZING FOG POSSIBLE NORTH CENTRAL VALLEY
LOCATIONS INCLUDING KAXX...THE ESTANCIA VALLEY INCLUDING KCQC...
AND VALLEY LOCATIONS WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS. LOW CLOUDS TO
CLEAR BY AROUND 17Z WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND VFR ALL ZONES THEREAFTER.
05
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...315 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OVER NEW
MEXICO OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...BRINGING SPECTACULAR WEATHER
TO THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH A FEW NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COOLER
BY SUNDAY AND WINDS WILL TREND STRONGER AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST OF
THE STATE. COOLER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY
AS A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RACES THROUGH THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
THE LATEST RADAR SHOWS JUST A COUPLE VERY LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING
SOUTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN TO THE PLAINS. 20Z LAPS DATA
INDICATES ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT A FEW STORMS HOWEVER A
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ALOFT IS ACTING TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION BELOW
550MB. THE 18Z NAM12 AND HRRR INDICATE THE BULK OF ANY STORMS WILL
FOCUS OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS AND AROUND SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTY.
OTHERWISE...WHAT FEW CLOUDS EXIST ACROSS CENTRAL/WESTERN NM WILL
DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE EAST WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS HOLDING STRONG.
WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE BENEATH A STRENGTHENING RIDGE ALOFT WILL
FAVOR AREAS OF FOG WITHIN THE PECOS AND ESTANCIA VALLEYS...AS WELL
AS ALONG THE CAPROCK.
THURSDAY WILL FEATURE WARMING TEMPERATURES AS 700MB VALUES RISE
TO NEAR +10C. THIS IS NEAR THE 95TH PERCENTILE FOR LATE OCTOBER.
THE H5 RIDGE THEN CRESTS OVER NM AT 591DM AND DELIVERS A REALLY
SPECTACULAR FRIDAY. 700MB TEMPS PEAK OUT NEAR +12C WHICH IS +2
STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE CLIMO. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR RECORD ACROSS THE
EAST WITH LOTS OF MID 80S. ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS TO STAY
IN PLACE AND LEE TROUGHING REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK SO NOT REALLY
EXPECTING RECORDS. BY SATURDAY THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND WINDS
BEGIN INCREASING IN THE EAST. HIGHS CERTAINLY MAY NEAR 90F IN THE
AREA AROUND TUCUMCARI. ELSEWHERE...IT WILL REMAIN SUNNY AND WARM.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT FROM MODELS WHICH
INDICATES FAST ZONAL FLOW OVER NM. THIS WILL FAVOR CONTINUED WARM
TEMPS OVER THE EAST WITH KATABATIC FLOW. SOME MOUNTAIN WAVE WIND
DRIVEN CIRCULATION MAY CREATE LOCALLY STRONG WINDS ON THE EAST
SLOPES BOTH DAYS. 700MB COLD ADVECTION IN THE WEST WILL COOL HIGHS
DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES. THE DGEX AND ECMWF DO SHOW ENOUGH MID/UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTS FOR A COUPLE HIGH TERRAIN
SHOWERS.
GUYER
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WE WILL BEGIN A DRYING TREND LATE TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOOK
FOR WARMING DAYTIME HIGHS...UP AND DOWN VENTILATION RATES...AND A
DOWNTREND IN HUMIDITY VALUES WITH BREEZY WESTERLIES.
VERY SPOTTY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ALONG THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN BUT WILL DIMINISH DOWNSLOPE TOWARD THE EASTERN PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THE EARLY EVENING. VERY LITTLE WETTING
RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM SPOTTY STORMS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND WILL SHIFT EASTWARD BY FRIDAY
BRINGING US WARMER DAYTIME HIGHS 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...
FOLLOWING A DOWNTREND IN HUMIDITY VALUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
VENTILATION WILL BE POOR ON FRIDAY BUT RATES LOOK TO IMPROVE OVER
THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS EAST. HAINES VALUES WILL
ALSO TREND UPWARD...WITH 5S EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN.
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY AND MONDAY ALONG AND
EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN BECAUSE OF AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES. COULD SEE MARGINALLY
CRITICAL WIND SPEEDS WEST CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY CENTRAL HIGHLANDS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOON...HUMIDITIES LOOK TO STAY A LITTLE ABOVE
CRITICAL CRITERIA AT THIS TIME. A COOLING TREND OF HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH THE STATE.
MODELS DIFFER LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY ABOUT WETTING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. GFS IS DRIER WITH ZONAL FLOW OVER THE STATE WHILE ECMWF IS
BULLISH ON PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST AS A REMAINING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXITS THE STATE.
32/43
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
119 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014
.DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS AND GENERALLY LGT NE/E WIND
EXPECTED DRG THE TAF PERIOD. BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITIES MAY OCCUR DRG
THE 10-14Z THURSDAY PERIOD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 854 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/
DISCUSSION...JUST A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE
FIRST PERIOD GRIDS. WEAK ECHOES OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS WITH
UPPER JET PROBABLY WILL NOT REACH THE GROUND. HOWEVER...ONLY HAVE
20 POPS GOING AND HRRR IS SHOWING SOME WEAK ECHOES NEAR THE AREA
TONIGHT SO WILL NOT REMOVE. ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER A BIT SINCE MOST
CLOUDS ARE EITHER WEST OF NORTH OF AREA. LEFT REMAINDER OF
FORECAST ALONE FOR NOW...AS OVERALL CONDITIONS SHOULD BE QUIET.
PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED. MAY NEED TO TONE THE WINDS DOWN FOR THE
COASTAL WATER FORECAST SINCE MOST AREAS ARE LESS THAN 15 KNOTS AT
THIS TIME.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/
DISCUSSION...FOR 00Z TAFS.
AVIATION...
OTHER THAN PSBLY SOME BRIEF MVFR FOG AT THE INLAND SITES LATE
TONIGHT VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. MID
LEVEL MSTR WILL INCRS AHEAD OF A WEAK DISTURBANCE RESULTING IN
SOME CLOUDS IN THE 10-15K FOOT LAYER.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...PER THE GOES
SOUNDER IMAGERY...MOISTURE AXIS REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE RIO
GRANDE THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH NO PRECIP IS CURRENTLY
FALLING...WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHC ALONG THE RIO GRANDE THROUGH
TONIGHT DUE TO AN APPROACHING UPPER JET AND SHORT WAVE ALONG WITH
INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. ONLY HAVE 5-10 POPS THE
REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM AS THE WEAKENING UPPER DISTURBANCE
SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION AND DRIER AIR FILTERS FARTHER W AND S
ACROSS S TX. ONLY WEATHER BEYOND TODAY MAY BE SOME LIGHT PATCHY
FOG THU MORNING BUT WITH VISIBILITIES AT 4SM OR BETTER...SO DO NOT
HAVE FOG IN THE FCST FOR TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG MAY BE MORE OF AN
ISSUE THU NIGHT/FRI MORNING WITH MUCH DRIER MID AND UPPER LEVELS
ACROSS THE REGION. DUE TO THE DRIER AIRMASS...SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED FOR THU WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MIN
TEMPS. A GENERALLY WEAK TO MOD EAST WIND ACROSS S TX THIS
AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT BECOMING VRB...BUT GENERALLY NE.
THEN A REPEAT IS EXPECTED ON THU AND THU NIGHT. OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS...A MODERATE E TO NE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT THEN WEAKEN
THROUGH THU AND THU NIGHT. A MOD RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...HOWEVER IF WINDS DIMINISH AS
EXPECTED...THE RIP CURRENT RISK MAY BE LOWER ON THU.
LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD
LARGE UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER THE STATE...BRINGING NORTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT AND DRIER CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO
ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH LIGHT WINDS OVER LAND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
UPPER LVL RIDGE BEGINS FLATTENING SUNDAY EVENING AS UPPER LVL TROUGH
AXIS STARTS DIGGING DOWN FROM THE ROCKIES AND SENDING A COLD FRONT
DOWN INTO TEXAS. MODELS STILL DIVERGING ON TIMING AND LOCATION
BEFORE BOUNDARY WASHES OUT. THIS RUN OF THE ECMWF MORE SWIFTLY
BRINGS THE FRONT THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS JUST AT THE END OF THE PERIOD
WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE FRONT STALLED AND THEN WASHING OUT IN
NORTHERN TEXAS. ALSO...THE GFS IS NO LONGER SHOWING THE SPORADIC
STRONG LOW/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMING OVER THE GULF AS IT WAS TRYING
TO SPIN UP IN THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS...RATHER KEEPING A WEAK/BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF...CLOSER TO THE ECMWF. FOR THE TIME
KEPT POPS OUT OF THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT MAY NEED TO ADD
ISOLATED CHANCE AT LEAST FOR THE DAY 8 PERIOD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
ZONES BASED ON TIMING AND POSITION OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT GETS
CLOSER IN TIME.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 84 64 84 63 86 / 10 10 10 0 0
VICTORIA 85 59 86 60 88 / 10 10 10 0 0
LAREDO 86 66 88 65 88 / 10 10 10 0 0
ALICE 86 62 87 62 88 / 10 10 10 0 0
ROCKPORT 82 67 83 66 83 / 10 10 10 0 0
COTULLA 86 63 89 63 90 / 10 10 10 0 0
KINGSVILLE 86 64 86 62 86 / 10 10 10 0 0
NAVY CORPUS 83 69 82 68 83 / 10 10 10 0 0
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
WC/87...AVIATION
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014
THE LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE DAKOTAS PUSHING AN OCCLUDED FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AHEAD OF THE FEATURES...A CHANNEL OF DEEP
MOISTURE IS EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN MEXICO INTO MINNESOTA AND
WESTERN WISCONSIN. A FEW SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE LEADING
EDGE OF THIS MOISTURE CHANNEL FROM IRONWOOD TO LA CROSSE.
HOWEVER...THE MAIN BAND OF BROKEN RAIN SHOWERS IS MOVING EAST OVER
EASTERN MINNESOTA. CLEAR SKIES RESUME BEHIND THE OCCLUDED FRONT OVER
THE DAKOTAS. THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE TIMING OF RAIN
CHANCES AS THE SHORTWAVE AND OCCLUDED FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY.
TODAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL PUSH A DECAYING
OCCLUDED FRONT EAST ACROSS THE STATE. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND
FRONT...WILL SEE DECENT MOISTURE WITHIN THE THETAE AXIS SPREAD EAST
WITH PWATS UPWARDS OF AN INCH. BUT FORCING AND INSTABILITY ARE ONLY
MODEST SO ALTHOUGH MOST PLACES WILL SEE LIGHT RAIN...AMOUNTS SHOULD
ONLY REACH A TENTH OR TWO. ADJUSTED THE TIMING OF THE BAND OF RAIN
ACROSS THE AREA SLIGHTLY SLOWER BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE. AMPLE
DRY AIR SHOULD KEEP AREAS ALONG THE BAY AND FOX VALLEY DRY THROUGH
THE MORNING THEN SHOULD SEE THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES ARRIVE BETWEEN
18-21Z. TEMPS WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO REACH INTO THE MIDDLE 50S
ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN BEFORE THE RAIN ARRIVES...BUT TEMPS WILL
LIKELY STRUGGLE TO REACH 50 OVER NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN SINCE RAIN
WILL ARRIVE DURING THE MORNING.
TONIGHT...WHATS LEFT OF THE LIGHT RAIN WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF
EXITING EASTERN WISCONSIN EARLY IN THE EVENING AND THINK RAIN
CHANCES WILL HAVE MOSTLY EXITED THE LAKE SHORE BY 03Z. PLENTY OF
DRY AIR ALOFT WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE...AND INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE WILL LOWER THE INVERSION. PROGGED SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BECOME TRAPPED BELOW THIS INVERSION AS SKIES
CLEAR OVERNIGHT. LOOKING UPSTREAM...VISIBILITIES ARE FALLING RIGHT
BEHIND THE CLOUD LINE OVER NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS SUPPORTS
A DECENT SETUP FOR FOG LATE TONIGHT AND WILL ADD TO THE FORECAST
EVERYWHERE. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S.
FRIDAY...ONCE ANY MORNING FOG BURNS OFF...SHOULD SEE A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE UNTIL THE AFTERNOON WHEN A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. SHOULD SEE CLOUDS INCREASE THERE...BUT MOSTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
PUSH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014
NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW FORECAST BY THE MODELS FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. MILDER THAN USUAL WEATHER EXPECTED AS
THE SURFACE HIGH MOVING IN IS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INSTEAD OF
FROM CANADA. UPPER FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUES UNTIL AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE FIRST ROUND OF PRECIPITATION MAY ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY
AS A WARM FRONT AS A WARM FRONT FORMS AND MOVES NORTH FROM
ILLINOIS. LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND CONVERGENCE SHOULD GENERATE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST
ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THE LOW INTENSIFIES AND LIFTS TO THE
NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH.
COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
A BIG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPS SOUTH FROM CANADA.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1054 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. COULD BE SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG
AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER FAR EASTERN WISCONSIN WHERE SKIES WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR THOUGH ABOUT 08Z.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING WESTERN
WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT WITH A BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS TOWARD DAYBREAK
THURSDAY. SHOWERS FORECAST TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE DAY...THEN EXIT EASTERN WISCONSIN EARLY THURSDAY
EVENING. EXPECT CIGS TO GRADUALLY FALL TO MVFR TOWARD MIDDAY
THURSDAY AS SHOWERS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. DURING THE EVENING
MVFR TO IFR CIGS MAY PERSIST ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
WISCONSIN AS UPPER TROUGH PASSES OVER THE AREA. RESIDUAL BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS MAY ALSO ALLOW FOR SOME AREAS OF
FOG DURING THE EVENING AS WELL.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......ESB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
355 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014
FOR TODAY...A THE 23.00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A SHORT
WAVE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. HOWEVER AS IT DOES...THE
900 TO 800 MB FRONTOGENESIS WEAKENS AND THE 850 MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE THIS MORNING. DUE TO
THIS...KEPT THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES FOR THIS MORNING...AND THEN
DRY IT OUT QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT
DRY AIR WILL MOVE QUICKLY INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM. AS THIS OCCURS...SKIES WILL QUICKLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO
EAST. THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW THE PARTIAL SOLAR ECLIPSE TO BE
VISIBLE FOR SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND WESTERN
WISCONSIN. MEANWHILE IN CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN...THERE
ARE STILL QUESTIONS ON WHETHER THESE AREAS WILL CLEAR OUT IN TIME.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014
FROM FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING...THE 23.00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND EAST THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. THE NAM HAS THE STRONGEST WAVE AND GENERATES LIGHT RAIN
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. THE GEM GENERATES RAIN
ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN ON FRIDAY EVENING. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF
AND GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW LIMITED MOISTURE SO THEY ARE DRY. SINCE THE
ECMWF USUALLY PERFORMS THE BEST IN THIS TIME FRAME...KEPT THE
FORECAST DRY.
ON SATURDAY...850 MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO 6 TO 8C IN THE WAKE OF A
CANADIAN COLD FRONT. THESE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO COOL WITH
EACH PROGRESSIVE MODEL RUN...THUS LOWERED THE TEMPERATURES A
COUPLE MORE OF DEGREES...AND THIS MAY NOT BE ENOUGH YET. IN
ADDITION TO LOWERING TEMPERATURES...SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT A VERY DRY
AIR MASS WILL BE MOVING SOUTHWEST INTO THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE DEW POINT MIX DOWN TOOL SUGGESTS THAT THEY WILL
FALL INTO 25 TO 35 DEGREE RANGE. THIS IS ABOUT 5 TO 8 DEGREES
LOWER THAN THE MOS GUIDANCE. SINCE THE MOS TYPICALLY DOES NOT DO
WELL IN THESE SITUATIONS...WENT WITH THE LOWER DEW POINTS.
FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY MORNING...THE MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW A SERIES OF NEGATIVE TILTED SHORT WAVES MOVING OUT AHEAD
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS LONG WAVE TROUGH. THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT THAT A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THE AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT.
STRONG 300K ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS ALONG AND IN THE ADVANCE OF
THIS FRONT. PRESSURE CONDENSATION DEFICITS DROP TO LESS THAN 10 MB
ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE GFS AND GEM
GENERATE SHOWERS AS SOON AS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN IT CONTINUES
INTO MONDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF HAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON DRY
AND INTRODUCES SHOWERS CHANCES FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WITH
THIS BEING THE FIRST TIME THAT IT HAS SHOWED KEPT SUNDAY AFTERNOONDRY
AND THEN KEPT THE SHOWER CHANCES GOING FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. ALSO WITH GFS MOST UNSTABLE CAPES RUNNING BETWEEN 500 AND
1000 J/KG...KEPT AN ISOLATED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE 1 TO 7 KM SHEAR CLIMBS
ABOVE 50 KNOTS ON SUNDAY NIGHT...SO MAY HAVE TO WATCH THESE STORMS
CLOSELY FOR THE POTENTIAL OF HAIL APPROACHING QUARTERS.
FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THE LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST
INTO THE REGION. AT THE SAME TIME...A SURFACE LOW WILL BE MOVING
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. WHILE THE 0-3 KM MOST UNSTABLE CAPES
CLIMB TO AROUND 500 J/KG...THE 0-6 KM SHEAR IS LESS THAN
40 KNOTS...SO NOT CONCERNED ABOUT ANY SEVERE WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
CONFIDENCE ON HOW THE REST OF TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING IS
GOING TO PLAY OUT IS NOT VERY HIGH. THE SHOWERS TO THE WEST WITH
THE FRONT HAVE BECOME SCATTERED...WHICH HAS BEEN HANDLED QUITE
NICELY BY THE HRRR THIS EVENING. THE 23.02Z HRRR CONTINUES THIS
TREND THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING OF
MOVING THE SHOWERS STEADILY EAST BUT KEEPING THEM SCATTERED AS
OPPOSED TO THE 23.00Z NAM WHICH CONTINUES TO INSIST ON AN
INCREASING COVERAGE TREND DESPITE IT SHOWING A DECREASE IN THE
ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE AND FRONTOGENESIS WITH THE FRONT. HAVE TRENDED
TOWARD THE HRRR AND HAVE GONE WITH SOME SHOWERS BUT FOR THE MOST
PART NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS TO OCCUR.
WHAT THE CEILINGS WILL DO IS ANOTHER CONCERN. VFR CEILINGS ARE
PREDOMINANT ACROSS MINNESOTA WITH SOME MVFR CONDITIONS MIXED IN.
ALL THE MODELS STILL INSIST THAT THESE WILL GO DOWN TO IFR
OVERNIGHT BUT HAVE DOUBTS ABOUT THIS IF THERE WILL BE LESS SHOWERS
AROUND TO HELP MOISTURE THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND
HAVE OPTED TO ONLY GO DOWN TO MVFR. THESE CEILINGS SHOULD HANG ON
THROUGH THE MORNING AND THEN SCATTER OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1141 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SHRA CHANCES TONIGHT/THU...
TEMPERATURES.
18Z DATA ANALYSIS HAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER MI WITH RIDGING TO AR. LOW
PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN MAN WITH A TROUGH/FRONT SOUTH TO
THE KS/CO BORDER. THE HIGH WAS HOLDING CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF
WI/IL/EASTERN IA WHILE CLOUDS WERE INCREASING ACROSS MN/WESTERN IA
AHEAD OF A RATHER STRONG TROUGH/SHORTWAVE ENERGY SEEN IN WV IMAGERY
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS/NEB. SHRA/TSRA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
GENERALLY ALONG/BEHIND THE SFC-850MB TROUGH/FRONT IN THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS TO CENTRAL NEB.
22.12Z MODELS INITIALIZED WELL...EXCEPT GFS WITH ITS 3-5F HIGH BIAS
ON SFC DEW POINTS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/NORTHERN PLAINS. SOLUTIONS
TRENDING TOWARD A TIGHTER CONSENSUS AS THE PLAINS TROUGH AXIS MOVES
INTO WESTERN IA/MN 12Z THU...INTO EASTERN WI BY 00Z FRI THEN INTO MI
AND OH VALLEY BY 12Z FRI. LATEST TIGHTER CONSENSUS FAVORS FASTER OF
THE EARLIER RUNS WITH THE APPROACH/PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH TONIGHT
THRU THU NIGHT. SHORT-TERM FCST CONFIDENCE IS GOOD THIS CYCLE.
FOR THE SHORT TERM...BULK OF THE 500-300MB PV ADVECTION WITH THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE ENERGY/TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE WEST HALF OF
THE FCST AREA LATER TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE EAST HALF THU MORNING.
THIS WITH MDT LOWER LEVEL THERMO-DYNAMIC FORCING/ISENTROPIC LIFT
WITH/AHEAD OF THE SFC-700MB TROUGH...PW VALUES OF 1 TO 1.25
INCHES AND 85-100 PERCENT SATURATION IN THE 850-500MB LAYER.
PRESENT TIMING HAS THE STRONGEST/DEEPEST LIFT/MOISTURE MOVING
ACROSS KRST AROUND 09Z... KLSE AROUND 12Z AND KVOK AROUND 15Z.
USED THIS TO TIME 85-95 PERCENT SHRA CHANCES EAST ACROSS THE FCST
AREA...MAINLY BETWEEN 06Z AND 18Z. NAM/GFS SHOWING WEAK MUCAPE OF
UP TO 150 J/KG WHEN LIFTING 850MB PARCELS THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ADDED AN ISOLATED -TSRA MENTION BETWEEN ROUGHLY
07Z-15Z WHEN THE STRONGEST/DEEPEST OF THE LIFT PASSES. MOST
PRECIP AMOUNTS TONIGHT/EARLY THU CONTINUE TO TREND ON THE LIGHT
SIDE WITH WEAKENING 925-700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT/THETA-E
CONVERGENCE AS THE TROUGH PASSES.
WITH THE TREND TOWARD FASTER...SUBSIDENCE/DRYING AT AND ABOVE 925MB
BEHIND THE SFC-500MB TROUGH SPREADS INTO THE FCST AREA THU
AFTERNOON. LOCATIONS ALONG/WEST OF THE MS RIVER ONCE AGAIN HAVE A
CHANCE OF SEEING THE PARTIAL SOLAR ECLIPSE LATE THU AFTERNOON. WITH
ANOTHER WEAK SFC-500MB TROUGH/SHORTWAVE INTO MN/IA BY 12Z FRI...ANY
COOLING BEHIND THE THU MORNING TROUGH IS WEAK/SHORT LIVED. 925MB
TEMPS IN THE +12C TO +15C RANGE AT 12Z FRI...UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW/
WARM ADVECTION ALOFT. USED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE LOWS/HIGHS FOR
TONIGHT/THU THEN TRENDED TOWARD WARMER OF GUIDANCE LOWS FOR THU
NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
FORECAST CONCERNS FOR FRI THRU SAT NIGHT...TEMPERATURES THRU THE
PERIOD.
22.12Z MODELS CONVERGING ON A TIGHTER CONSENSUS FRI/FRI NIGHT...AS
ONE WEAK SHORTWAVE SLIDES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST FRI AND A SECOND
STRONGER WAVE DROPS TOWARD/ACROSS LK SUPERIOR FRI NIGHT. TREND IS
STRONGER WITH THE FRI NIGHT WAVE. GOOD CONSENSUS FOR THIS WAVE TO
CONTINUE QUICKLY EAST SAT AND FOR RIDGING/RISING HGTS TO BUILD
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE REGION SAT NIGHT. WITH THE GOOD
MODEL CONSENSUS THRU SAT NIGHT...FCST CONFIDENCE IN THIS PERIOD IS
GOOD THIS CYCLE.
WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION FRI HAS A MODEST SFC-700MB
TROUGH WITH IT. AHEAD OF THIS ROUGH IS A ROUND OF LOWER LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION AND MOISTURE INCREASE. FORCING/LIFT ALOFT IS WEAK AND THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING RATHER QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA. THE MOISTURE
INCREASE IS PROGGED MAINLY IN THE 925-850MB LAYER. WILL LEAVE ANY
MENTION OF -SHRA OUT OF THE GRIDS ON FRI BUT DID INCREASE THE CLOUD
COVER MUCH OF FRI INTO FRI EVENING AS THE MOISTURE AXIS PASSES.
925MB TEMPS IN THE +13C TO +17C RANGE FRI AFTERNOON. FULLY REALIZED
THESE 925MB TEMPS WOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S
ON FRI. GIVEN THE LOWER STRATO-CU CLOUD POTENTIAL...TRENDED HIGHS
MORE IN THE LOW-MID 60S FOR NOW. WAVE DROPPING ACROSS LK SUPERIOR
FRI NIGHT SENDS A ROUND OF SUBSIDENCE/ DRYING AND STRONGER LOW LEVEL
COLD ADVECTION ACROSS MN/IA/WI FRI NIGHT/SAT. WARMEST 925MB AIRMASS
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FRI EVENING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. EVEN WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...LOWS FRI NIGHT TO BE ON THE MILD SIDE WITH
SOME WINDS FOR BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AHEAD OF/BEHIND THE FRONT. SAT/
SAT NIGHT CONTINUE DRY/QUIET AS CAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. 925MB
TEMPS STILL IN THE +8C TO +12C RANGE SAT AFTERNOON...FOR ABOVE
NORMAL HIGHS. SFC RIDGE AXIS IS OVER THE AREA SAT NIGHT...WITH CLEAR
SKIES/LIGHT WINDS FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. MODEL/ENSEMBLE
CONSENSUS OF THE HIGHS/LOWS FOR FRI THRU SAT NIGHT LOOK GOOD...
THOUGH DID RAISE FRI NIGHT LOWS DEGREE OR 2 ABOVE THESE VALUES.
FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.../DAYS 4 TO 7/...
FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES LATE SUN INTO
TUE... TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD.
22.00Z AND 22.12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SUNDAY FOR
RIDGING ALOFT TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...AHEAD OF STRONGER/LONGWAVE
TROUGHING MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES. IMPROVING CONSENSUS AS THE
ROCKIES TROUGH/ENERGY MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS MON.
TREND SUN/MON LEANS TOWARD THE SLOWER THE EARLIER RUNS WITH THE
ROCKIES/PLAINS TROUGH. MODELS HAVE THE PATTERN REMAINING PROGRESSIVE
TUE...BUT PLENTY OF DETAIL DIFFERENCES AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
MID/UPPER MS VALLEY. STILL A BETTER/SLOW CONSENSUS THAN THE PREVIOUS
RUNS ON TUE. CONSIDERABLE MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE FLOW ACROSS
NOAM BY WED...WITH RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY ON THE LOW SIDE BY DAY 7.
FCST CONFIDENCE ABOVE AVERAGE SUN/MON THEN BELOW AVERAGE BY WED.
HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION SUN...SLIDING EAST OF
THE REGION SUN NIGHT. INCREASING WARM ADVECTION AND 850-700MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT SPREADING ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL MN/IA SUN
AFTERNOON THEN INCREASE ACROSS MN/IA/WI SUN NIGHT. INITIALLY A
RATHER DEEP DRY AIRMASS OVER THE AREA SUN...WITH MAINLY INCREASING
MID CLOUDS. PW VALUES INCREASE TO AN INCH OR MORE SUN NIGHT. THIS
WITH SOME MUCAPE OF 200 TO 500 J/KG IN THE INFLOW AIRMASS SUN
NIGHT...THEN MUCAPE OF 200 TO 500+ J/KG OVER THE AREA MON/MON NIGHT.
MOISTURE/LIFT CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA MON INTO TUE...BUT
DIFFERENCE WITH TIMING/TRACK OF LOWER LEVEL FEATURES AND STRONGER
FORCING BY MON...THEN WITH TIMING OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
PASSAGE TUE. DID ADD AN ISOLATED TSRA MENTION FOR SUN NIGHT THRU MON
NIGHT GIVEN THE CAPE AND WHAT SHOULD BE AT LEAST BROAD FORCING FOR
ASCENT OVER THE REGION. LINGERING -SHRA CHANCE TUE WITH THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH STILL IN THE REGION. TUE NIGHT/WED SHOULD BE A DRY/
COOLER PERIOD IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING TROUGH AND RISING HGTS OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST...HOWEVER MODELS AT ODDS WITH THE TIMING OF ONE
TROUGH EXITING AND THE NEXT ONE APPROACHING. WILL LEAVE THE MODEL/
ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS AS IS FOR TUE/WED.
SUN/MON CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD A SEASONABLY MILD PERIOD WITH 925MB
TEMPS IN THE +7C TO +11C RANGE AT 00Z MON AND +8C TO +15C RANGE AT
18Z MON...1 TO 1.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. CLOUDS/SHRA
LIKELY TO IMPACT HIGHS MON BUT BOTH SUN/MON SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION SPREADS ACROSS FOR
MON NIGHT/TUE... BUT TEMPS FOR TUE/WED LOOK TO ONLY TREND BACK
TOWARD LATE OCT NORMALS. MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS OF HIGHS/LOWS FOR
SUN THRU WED HAS THIS WELL TRENDED FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
CONFIDENCE ON HOW THE REST OF TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING IS
GOING TO PLAY OUT IS NOT VERY HIGH. THE SHOWERS TO THE WEST WITH
THE FRONT HAVE BECOME SCATTERED...WHICH HAS BEEN HANDLED QUITE
NICELY BY THE HRRR THIS EVENING. THE 23.02Z HRRR CONTINUES THIS
TREND THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING OF
MOVING THE SHOWERS STEADILY EAST BUT KEEPING THEM SCATTERED AS
OPPOSED TO THE 23.00Z NAM WHICH CONTINUES TO INSIST ON AN
INCREASING COVERAGE TREND DESPITE IT SHOWING A DECREASE IN THE
ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE AND FRONTOGENESIS WITH THE FRONT. HAVE TRENDED
TOWARD THE HRRR AND HAVE GONE WITH SOME SHOWERS BUT FOR THE MOST
PART NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS TO OCCUR.
WHAT THE CEILINGS WILL DO IS ANOTHER CONCERN. VFR CEILINGS ARE
PREDOMINANT ACROSS MINNESOTA WITH SOME MVFR CONDITIONS MIXED IN.
ALL THE MODELS STILL INSIST THAT THESE WILL GO DOWN TO IFR
OVERNIGHT BUT HAVE DOUBTS ABOUT THIS IF THERE WILL BE LESS SHOWERS
AROUND TO HELP MOISTURE THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND
HAVE OPTED TO ONLY GO DOWN TO MVFR. THESE CEILINGS SHOULD HANG ON
THROUGH THE MORNING AND THEN SCATTER OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1044 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM CENTERED SOUTH OF CAPE COD...WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF RAINFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY PULL
AWAY FROM THE REGION AND MOVE OUT TO SEA ON FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL
FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1045 AM EDT...BANDS OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN
CONTINUE TO MOVE FROM EAST TO WEST AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
OF A SPRAWLING VERTICALLY STACKED COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. STRONG EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE
LOW LEVELS RESULTING IN A CONVEYOR-BELT OF MOISTURE FROM THE
ATLANTIC. CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS RESULTING IN MODERATE TO BRIEFLY
HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD. SOME
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS AND OTHER POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS IS
LIKELY. THE PERSISTENT RAINFALL ACROSS SOME E-SLOPES OF THE
SOUTHERN GREENS AND BERKSHIRES HAS LED TO SOME TOTALS REACHING
2.5-3 INCHES...WITH PERHAPS AN ADDITIONAL 0.5-1 INCH ADDITIONAL
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS MAY PRODUCE SOME MINOR...LOCALIZED
FLOODING...PARTICULARLY IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. SEE HYDRO
DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS.
THE CHALLENGING ASPECT HAS BEEN A RATHER SHARP GRADIENT TO THE RAIN
SHIELD...WHICH HAS ALLOWED AREAS SUCH AS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND
MOHAWK VALLEY TO REMAIN GENERALLY RAIN-FREE THROUGH 1030 AM. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION LOWER POPS IN THESE AREAS UNTIL NOON WHEN AT
LEAST SOME RAIN SHOULD FINALLY REACH MUCH OF THIS AREA. LOCATIONS
FROM AROUND ROUTE 28 NEAR OLD FORGE NORTHWARD MAY NOT RECEIVE ANY
MEASURABLE RAIN THOUGH...SO WILL GENERALLY MENTION CHANCE TO LOW
LIKELY POPS.
BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AS WELL AS OUTPUT FROM HI RES MODELS SUCH AS
THE HRRR AND LOCAL WRF...THESE BANDS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
THE REGION WITH VARYING INTENSITY INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE
WEAKENING LATE IN THE DAY AS THE LOW STARTS TO FINALLY TRACK
EASTWARD. LIGHTER RAIN WILL STILL BE LIKELY THIS EVENING FOR MANY
LOCATIONS...BUT THE INTENSITY SHOULD WANE AS WE LOSE THE
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS. WITH THE CLOUDS...RAIN AND PERSISTENT
NORTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE MUCH
MOST HIGH TEMPS REMAINING BETWEEN 45-50...WITH POSSIBLY SOME LOWER
50S IN PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS IN
LITCHFIELD CO. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY
REMAIN IN THE LOWER/MID 40S THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL START TO PULL AWAY FROM THE COAST
TONIGHT AND FARTHER OUT TO SEA. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE LARGE
GEOGRAPHIC SCOPE OF THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION WE WILL STILL BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME...WITH PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. SO OVERCAST CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY LIGHT RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF BY
FRIDAY MORNING. WILL MENTION LIKELY POPS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EVENING...TAPERING TO CHANCE AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS THE LOW TRACKS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST. AS THE FLOW REGIME
STARTS TO TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY FRIDAY MORNING...SOME UPSLOPE
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST AND
WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY.
WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LOOSEN ITS GRIP ON THE REGION
FRIDAY...THE FLOW WILL STILL BE MAINLY CYCLONIC WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WRAPPING BACK AROUND THE LOW. SO WE ARE EXPECTING PLENTY OF
CLOUDS DESPITE CHANCES FOR RAIN DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHANCE BY
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...IT WILL BE A SEASONABLY COOL DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THURSDAY. A FEW BREAKS OF
SUN MAY BE POSSIBLE TOWARDS SUNSET SOUTH AND WEST OF ALBANY.
SKIES EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CLEAR FRIDAY NIGHT...AS A SMALL SURFACE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS DUE TO LESS CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER... THE
NEXT SYSTEM WILL ALREADY BE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY
EARLY SATURDAY...AS A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
STRONG UPPER JET APPROACHES. SO SATURDAY SHOULD START OUT WITH SOME
SUNSHINE...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT LATE IN THE DAY. WITH ENOUGH SUNSHINE...HIGH TEMPS
COULD REACH THE LOWER 60S IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER
SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL AFFECT THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
LATEST MODEL RUNS TRACK THESE SYSTEMS FURTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS...WHICH RESULTS IN LESS PCPN ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ON
SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THIS SYSTEM WILL MAINLY PRODUCE
PCPN ACROSS NORTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...WITH LITTLE IF ANY PCPN
ACROSS SOUTHEAST AREAS AND MOST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. HAVE FORECAST
LIKELY POPS OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT...DECREASING TO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. ON SUNDAY POPS WILL RANGE FROM
HIGH CHANCE LEVELS OVER THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO SLIGHT CHANCE
OR DRY CONDITIONS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL STILL BE MILD WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S. FOLLOWING THE TROF PASSAGE...IT WILL TURN BLUSTERY WITH
SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN NORMAL TEMPS ON SUNDAY...HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO
BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER TO
START THE NEW WORK WEEK. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30 TO 40
DEGREE RANGE. HIGHS MONDAY 50 TO 60. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID
30S TO LOWER 40S. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S.
DURING TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WED AFTN AND EVENING. MOST OF
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY...BUT POPS ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO BETWEEN
20 AND 40 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
40S. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF NEW JERSEY WILL
TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
PROVIDING A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AS OF 700 AM...WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF
TAF SITES...BUT CIGS/VSBYS MAINLY IN THE MVFR TO OCCASIONAL VFR
RANGE. THE RAIN AND MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE TAF
SITES THROUGH THE MORNING. ALTHOUGH THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH IFR
CONDITIONS REPORTED DURING THE NIGHT...HAVE INCLUDE SOME TEMPO
GROUPS FOR IFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH 14Z AT KALB/KPSF WHERE IT
APPEARS THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL DURING THIS PERIOD.
DURING THE AFTERNOON...KPOU WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR AS THE
RAIN TAPERS TO -SHRA. ELSEWHERE...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING...THEN IMPROVE TO VFR AT KALB AND KGFL AFTER MIDNIGHT.
AT KPSF...VSBYS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR TONIGHT...BUT CIGS WILL REMAIN
MVFR.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AT ALL THE TAF SITES AT 8 TO 12
KTS...WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM CENTERED SOUTH OF CAPE COD...WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF RAINFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY PULL
AWAY FROM THE REGION AND MOVE OUT TO SEA ON FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL
FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL ONLY BE 70 PERCENT OR GREATER
TODAY. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED BE BETWEEN 90 AND 100
PERCENT. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF AROUND 50 TO 65
PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS TODAY WILL BE NORTHERLY AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS
NEAR 20 MPH. WINDS TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15
MPH...INCREASING TO AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH ON FRIDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
PERIODS OF RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. THE RAIN WILL FALL MODERATE TO BRIEFLY
HEAVY IN INTENSITY AT TIMES. THROUGH TONIGHT...ABOUT AN ADDITIONAL
INCH OF RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY UP TO TWO INCHES
ACROSS THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS IN
SOUTHERN VERMONT...THE BERKSHIRES AND TACONICS. DUE TO RECENT DRY
WEATHER...THIS RAINFALL IS RATHER BENEFICIAL TO THE REGION. THERE
WILL BE SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO RIVER
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. THERE MAY BE SOME PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS OR FIELDS...OR IN POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS...BUT
THE IMPACT SHOULD BE RATHER MINIMAL.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/JPV
NEAR TERM...KL/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...KL/GJM
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/JPV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
731 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM CENTERED SOUTH OF CAPE COD...WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF RAINFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY PULL
AWAY FROM THE REGION AND MOVE OUT TO SEA ON FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL
FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 645 AM EDT...BANDS OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN
CONTINUE TO MOVE FROM EAST TO WEST AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
OF A SPRAWLING VERTICALLY STACKED COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. STRONG EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE
LOW LEVELS RESULTING IN A CONVEYOR-BELT OF MOISTURE FROM THE
ATLANTIC. CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS RESULTING IN MODERATE TO BRIEFLY
HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD. SOME
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS AND OTHER POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS IS
LIKELY...BUT SHOULD NOT POSE ANY SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS. REFER
TO HYDRO SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.
THE CHALLENGING ASPECT HAS BEEN A RATHER SHARP GRADIENT TO THE RAIN
SHIED...WHICH HAS ALLOWED AREAS SUCH AS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND
MOHAWK VALLEY TO REMAIN GENERALLY RAIN-FREE AS OF 645 AM. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION LOWER POPS IN THESE AREAS UNTIL LATER THIS
MORNING WHEN AT LEAST SOME RAIN WILL IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY REACH
MUCH OF THIS AREA. LOCATIONS FROM AROUND ROUTE 28 NEAR OLD FORGE
NORTHWARD MAY NOT RECEIVE ANY MEASURABLE RAIN THOUGH...SO WILL
GENERALLY MENTION CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY POPS.
BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AS WELL AS OUTPUT FROM HI RES MODELS SUCH AS
THE HRRR AND LOCAL WRF...THESE BANDS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
THE REGION WITH VARYING INTENSITY INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE
WEAKENING LATE IN THE DAY AS THE LOW STARTS TO FINALLY TRACK
EASTWARD. LIGHTER RAIN WILL STILL BE LIKELY THIS EVENING FOR MANY
LOCATIONS...BUT THE INTENSITY SHOULD WANE AS WE LOSE THE
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS. WITH THE CLOUDS...RAIN AND PERSISTENT
NORTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE MUCH
TODAY WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL START TO PULL AWAY FROM THE COAST
TONIGHT AND FARTHER OUT TO SEA. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE LARGE
GEOGRAPHIC SCOPE OF THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION WE WILL STILL BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME...WITH PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. SO OVERCAST CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY LIGHT RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF BY
FRIDAY MORNING. WILL MENTION LIKELY POPS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EVENING...TAPERING TO CHANCE AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS THE LOW TRACKS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST. AS THE FLOW REGIME
STARTS TO TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY FRIDAY MORNING...SOME UPSLOPE
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST AND
WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY.
WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LOOSEN ITS GRIP ON THE REGION
FRIDAY...THE FLOW WILL STILL BE MAINLY CYCLONIC WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WRAPPING BACK AROUND THE LOW. SO WE ARE EXPECTING PLENTY OF
CLOUDS DESPITE CHANCES FOR RAIN DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHANCE BY
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...IT WILL BE A SEASONABLY COOL DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THURSDAY. A FEW BREAKS OF
SUN MAY BE POSSIBLE TOWARDS SUNSET SOUTH AND WEST OF ALBANY.
SKIES EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CLEAR FRIDAY NIGHT...AS A SMALL SURFACE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS DUE TO LESS CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER... THE
NEXT SYSTEM WILL ALREADY BE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY
EARLY SATURDAY...AS A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
STRONG UPPER JET APPROACHES. SO SATURDAY SHOULD START OUT WITH SOME
SUNSHINE...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT LATE IN THE DAY. WITH ENOUGH SUNSHINE...HIGH TEMPS
COULD REACH THE LOWER 60S IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER
SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL AFFECT THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
LATEST MODEL RUNS TRACK THESE SYSTEMS FURTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS...WHICH RESULTS IN LESS PCPN ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ON
SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THIS SYSTEM WILL MAINLY PRODUCE
PCPN ACROSS NORTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...WITH LITTLE IF ANY PCPN
ACROSS SOUTHEAST AREAS AND MOST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. HAVE FORECAST
LIKELY POPS OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT...DECREASING TO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. ON SUNDAY POPS WILL RANGE FROM
HIGH CHANCE LEVELS OVER THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO SLIGHT CHANCE
OR DRY CONDITIONS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL STILL BE MILD WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S. FOLLOWING THE TROF PASSAGE...IT WILL TURN BLUSTERY WITH
SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN NORMAL TEMPS ON SUNDAY...HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO
BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER TO
START THE NEW WORK WEEK. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30 TO 40
DEGREE RANGE. HIGHS MONDAY 50 TO 60. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID
30S TO LOWER 40S. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S.
DURING TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WED AFTN AND EVENING. MOST OF
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY...BUT POPS ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO BETWEEN
20 AND 40 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
40S. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF NEW JERSEY WILL
TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
PROVIDING A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AS OF 700 AM...WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF
TAF SITES...BUT CIGS/VSBYS MAINLY IN THE MVFR TO OCCASIONAL VFR
RANGE. THE RAIN AND MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE TAF
SITES THROUGH THE MORNING. ALTHOUGH THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH IFR
CONDITIONS REPORTED DURING THE NIGHT...HAVE INCLUDE SOME TEMPO
GROUPS FOR IFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH 14Z AT KALB/KPSF WHERE IT
APPEARS THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL DURING THIS PERIOD.
DURING THE AFTERNOON...KPOU WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR AS THE
RAIN TAPERS TO -SHRA. ELSEWHERE...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING...THEN IMPROVE TO VFR AT KALB AND KGFL AFTER MIDNIGHT.
AT KPSF...VSBYS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR TONIGHT...BUT CIGS WILL REMAIN
MVFR.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AT ALL THE TAF SITES AT 8 TO 12
KTS...WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM CENTERED SOUTH OF CAPE COD...WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF RAINFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY PULL
AWAY FROM THE REGION AND MOVE OUT TO SEA ON FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL
FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL ONLY BE 70 PERCENT OR GREATER
TODAY. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED BE BETWEEN 90 AND 100
PERCENT. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF AROUND 50 TO 65
PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS TODAY WILL BE NORTHERLY AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS
NEAR 20 MPH. WINDS TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15
MPH...INCREASING TO AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH ON FRIDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
PERIODS OF RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. THE RAIN WILL FALL MODERATE TO BRIEFLY
HEAVY IN INTENSITY AT TIMES. THROUGH TONIGHT...ABOUT AN ADDITIONAL
INCH OF RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY UP TO TWO INCHES
ACROSS THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS IN
SOUTHERN VERMONT...THE BERKSHIRES AND TACONICS. DUE TO RECENT DRY
WEATHER...THIS RAINFALL IS RATHER BENEFICIAL TO THE REGION. THERE
WILL BE SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO RIVER
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. THERE MAY BE SOME PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS OR FIELDS...OR IN POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS...BUT
THE IMPACT SHOULD BE RATHER MINIMAL.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...KL/GJM
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/JPV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
646 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM CENTERED SOUTH OF CAPE COD...WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF RAINFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY PULL
AWAY FROM THE REGION AND MOVE OUT TO SEA ON FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL
FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 645 AM EDT...BANDS OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN
CONTINUE TO MOVE FROM EAST TO WEST AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
OF A SPRAWLING VERTICALLY STACKED COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. STRONG EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE
LOW LEVELS RESULTING IN A CONVEYOR-BELT OF MOISTURE FROM THE
ATLANTIC. CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS RESULTING IN MODERATE TO BRIEFLY
HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD. SOME
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS AND OTHER POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS IS
LIKELY...BUT SHOULD NOT POSE ANY SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS. REFER
TO HYDRO SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.
THE CHALLENGING ASPECT HAS BEEN A RATHER SHARP GRADIENT TO THE RAIN
SHIED...WHICH HAS ALLOWED AREAS SUCH AS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND
MOHAWK VALLEY TO REMAIN GENERALLY RAIN-FREE AS OF 645 AM. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION LOWER POPS IN THESE AREAS UNTIL LATER THIS
MORNING WHEN AT LEAST SOME RAIN WILL IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY REACH
MUCH OF THIS AREA. LOCATIONS FROM AROUND ROUTE 28 NEAR OLD FORGE
NORTHWARD MAY NOT RECEIVE ANY MEASURABLE RAIN THOUGH...SO WILL
GENERALLY MENTION CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY POPS.
BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AS WELL AS OUTPUT FROM HI RES MODELS SUCH AS
THE HRRR AND LOCAL WRF...THESE BANDS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
THE REGION WITH VARYING INTENSITY INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE
WEAKENING LATE IN THE DAY AS THE LOW STARTS TO FINALLY TRACK
EASTWARD. LIGHTER RAIN WILL STILL BE LIKELY THIS EVENING FOR MANY
LOCATIONS...BUT THE INTENSITY SHOULD WANE AS WE LOSE THE
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS. WITH THE CLOUDS...RAIN AND PERSISTENT
NORTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE MUCH
TODAY WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL START TO PULL AWAY FROM THE COAST
TONIGHT AND FARTHER OUT TO SEA. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE LARGE
GEOGRAPHIC SCOPE OF THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION WE WILL STILL BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME...WITH PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. SO OVERCAST CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY LIGHT RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF BY
FRIDAY MORNING. WILL MENTION LIKELY POPS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EVENING...TAPERING TO CHANCE AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS THE LOW TRACKS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST. AS THE FLOW REGIME
STARTS TO TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY FRIDAY MORNING...SOME UPSLOPE
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST AND
WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY.
WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LOOSEN ITS GRIP ON THE REGION
FRIDAY...THE FLOW WILL STILL BE MAINLY CYCLONIC WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WRAPPING BACK AROUND THE LOW. SO WE ARE EXPECTING PLENTY OF
CLOUDS DESPITE CHANCES FOR RAIN DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHANCE BY
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...IT WILL BE A SEASONABLY COOL DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THURSDAY. A FEW BREAKS OF
SUN MAY BE POSSIBLE TOWARDS SUNSET SOUTH AND WEST OF ALBANY.
SKIES EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CLEAR FRIDAY NIGHT...AS A SMALL SURFACE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS DUE TO LESS CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER... THE
NEXT SYSTEM WILL ALREADY BE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY
EARLY SATURDAY...AS A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
STRONG UPPER JET APPROACHES. SO SATURDAY SHOULD START OUT WITH SOME
SUNSHINE...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT LATE IN THE DAY. WITH ENOUGH SUNSHINE...HIGH TEMPS
COULD REACH THE LOWER 60S IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER
SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL AFFECT THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
LATEST MODEL RUNS TRACK THESE SYSTEMS FURTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS...WHICH RESULTS IN LESS PCPN ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ON
SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THIS SYSTEM WILL MAINLY PRODUCE
PCPN ACROSS NORTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...WITH LITTLE IF ANY PCPN
ACROSS SOUTHEAST AREAS AND MOST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. HAVE FORECAST
LIKELY POPS OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT...DECREASING TO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. ON SUNDAY POPS WILL RANGE FROM
HIGH CHANCE LEVELS OVER THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO SLIGHT CHANCE
OR DRY CONDITIONS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL STILL BE MILD WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S. FOLLOWING THE TROF PASSAGE...IT WILL TURN BLUSTERY WITH
SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN NORMAL TEMPS ON SUNDAY...HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO
BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER TO
START THE NEW WORK WEEK. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30 TO 40
DEGREE RANGE. HIGHS MONDAY 50 TO 60. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID
30S TO LOWER 40S. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S.
DURING TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WED AFTN AND EVENING. MOST OF
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY...BUT POPS ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO BETWEEN
20 AND 40 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
40S. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF THE DELMARVA
WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
PROVIDING A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
AS OF 130 AM...PRIMARY RAINFALL BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE UPPER LOW
IS NOW ORIENTED EAST TO WEST AND WAS AFFECTING THE KALB/KPSF TAF
SITES. THE BAND HAD ALREADY SHIFTED NORTH OF THE KPOU TAF SITE AND
HAD NOT YET REACHED THE KGFL TAF SITE. THIS BAND IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY SHIFT NORTHWARD AND BECOME ORIENTED MORE NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...EXPECT MVFR TO
OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS AT THE KALB/KPSF TAF SITES THROUGH AROUND
16Z/17Z...THEN MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING
AT 00Z FRIDAY.
AT KPOU...EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF
PERIOD...POSSIBLY BECOMING VFR AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW
SHIFTS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST.
AT KGFL...VFR VSBYS/MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 08Z...THEN
DETERIORATE TO MVFR TO OCCASIONALLY IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 08Z AS THE
RAIN BAND SHIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE KGFL AREA. DURING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AT ALL THE TAF SITES AT 10 TO 14
KTS...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM CENTERED SOUTH OF CAPE COD...WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF RAINFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY PULL
AWAY FROM THE REGION AND MOVE OUT TO SEA ON FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL
FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL ONLY BE 70 PERCENT OR GREATER
TODAY. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED BE BETWEEN 90 AND 100
PERCENT. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF AROUND 50 TO 65
PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS TODAY WILL BE NORTHERLY AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS
NEAR 20 MPH. WINDS TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15
MPH...INCREASING TO AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH ON FRIDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
PERIODS OF RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. THE RAIN WILL FALL MODERATE TO BRIEFLY
HEAVY IN INTENSITY AT TIMES. THROUGH TONIGHT...ABOUT AN ADDITIONAL
INCH OF RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY UP TO TWO INCHES
ACROSS THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS IN
SOUTHERN VERMONT...THE BERKSHIRES AND TACONICS. DUE TO RECENT DRY
WEATHER...THIS RAINFALL IS RATHER BENEFICIAL TO THE REGION. THERE
WILL BE SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO RIVER
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. THERE MAY BE SOME PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS OR FIELDS...OR IN POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS...BUT
THE IMPACT SHOULD BE RATHER MINIMAL.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/JPV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
640 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014
MAIN CONCERN REMAINS THE ARRIVAL OF THE RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A
PRONOUNCED RIBBON OF THETAE ADVECTION WITH A RETREATING WARM
FRONT NOW ENTERING NORTHEAST IOWA. RIDGE ALOFT IS WEAKENING THE
BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISO THUNDER MOVING EAST ACROSS THE AREA WHILE
ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS IS DEVELOPING WEST OF THE FIRST LINE AND
MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARD CENTRAL/NORTHERN IOWA AT 07Z. FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT...THUNDER WILL GRAD DIMINISH AND SOME
PATCHY FOG WILL FORM WEST WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING OVER THE AREA
GENERALLY EAST OF I35 AFTER 12Z AND EXITING THE AREA ABOUT 18Z
TODAY. BOTH THE HRRR AND THE NMM ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE
MAIN AREA OF RAIN OVER THE EAST AFT 12Z AND EXITING EAST BY MIDDAY
AND CURRENT TRENDS SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO. AS CLOUDS DEPART... MILD
AIR BEHIND THE BOUNDARY SHOULD WARM QUICKLY WITH HIGHS REACHING
THE LOWER 70S WEST TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S EAST. BUFR SOUNDINGS
INDICATE SOME CU EARLY ON IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT MAINLY SUNNY BY
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014
THE MAIN ISSUE OF THE EXTENDED WAS WITH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND...AND WITH PRECIP CHANCES LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER ECMWF/GFS/SREF FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...THEN CLOSER TO THE ECMWF SUNDAY THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK.
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...NICE WARM DAY ANTICIPATED FOR FRIDAY WITH
GOOD WAA AHEAD OF NEXT WEAK SHORTWAVE SET TO MOVE ACROSS THE
STATE DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS LOOKS TO MAINLY BRING A WESTERLY
WIND SHIFT LATE IN THE DAY. TWEAKED MAX TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO
WITH GOOD MIXING AND SOUTHWEST FLOW. 850MB TEMPS RISE INTO THE
+14C TO +18C RANGE BY 18Z FRIDAY. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH SOME WEAK CAA...BUT STILL LOOKS TO BE ABOVE
NORMAL FOR MAX TEMPERATURES.
THE 850MB RIDGE MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING
ALLOWING FOR SOME STRONG RETURN FLOW INTO THE STATE. THE CAVEAT IS
CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH SOME DECENT THETA-E ADVECTION MOVING
ACROSS THE STATE. THIS SHOULD HELP BALANCE OUT THE WAA...AND ONLY
WENT SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN GUIDANCE IN THE SOUTHWEST FOR HIGHS
SUNDAY. THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE SHOW SOME BROAD ISENTROPIC LIFT BY
THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING SUNDAY AND MAY SPAWN SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN THE
WARM SECTOR MONDAY AND REMAINS CAPPED OFF. THUS...WENT COMPLETELY
DRY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY
MONDAY. THE COLD FRONT AND TROUGH MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH THE ECMWF A BIT STRONGER AND DEEPER WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHILE THE GFS IS STRONGER WITH THE SURFACE
LOW. REGARDLESS...MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR NEXT SIGNIFICANT PRECIP. MUCH COLDER TUESDAY AND
EVEN INTO THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH THE REGION REMAINING IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
&&
.AVIATION...23/12Z
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014
SHOWERS AND ISO THUNDER EXITING TO THE EAST PRIOR TO 15Z. IFR CIGS
AND LOW VSBY HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA WEST OF I35 AND WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH 15-17Z...LONGEST EAST.
DAYTIME HEATING WILL HELP ERODE THE FOG/LOW ST THOUGH IT WILL TAKE
A FEW HOURS MORE TIME. REMAINDER OF FCST WILL BE PLEASANT WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AFT 20Z. /REV
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...PODRAZIK
AVIATION...REV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
644 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 642 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014
DENSE FOG CONTINUES TO MAKE SLOW PROGRESS TOWARD THE WEST AND IS
NOW FURTHER WEST THAN ANY MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING.
SO EXPANDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY ONE ROW OF COUNTIES FURTHER
WEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014
TODAY-TONIGHT...UPPER HIGH CURRENTLY CENTERED JUST SOUTHWEST OF
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AREA WILL EXPAND AND
STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO BY 12Z FRIDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S.
AS FOR THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY...WILL EXTEND IT A FEW MORE HOURS TIL
16Z AS THE RUC IS HOLDING ONTO IT A BIT LONGER THEN PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED.
FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...UPPER HIGH AND RIDGE SLIDE SLOWLY INTO
WEST/SOUTHWEST TEXAS BY 12Z SATURDAY. SOME CIRRUS EXPECTED FRIDAY
MORNING BEFORE EXITING EAST AND OUT OF THE AREA BY THE END OF THE
DAY. CLEAR SKY EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN
THE MID 80S...EXCEPTION ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF FAR EASTERN
COLORADO WHERE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S EXPECTED. LOWS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S.
RECORD/NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE FOR A FEW
LOCATIONS...SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.
SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...UPPER HIGH SLIDES SOUTHEAST INTO
SOUTHERN TEXAS BY 12Z SUNDAY AS UPPER FLOW SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHWEST
AS LARGE PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM MOVES ASHORE. CLOUDINESS WILL BE
CONFINED TO POSSIBLY A FEW AFTERNOON CUMULUS CLOUDS...OTHERWISE
CLEAR. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE COOLER AS SFC WINDS
TURN TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST WITH 75 TO 80 ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
INTERSTATE...LOW 80S TO THE SOUTH. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S
TO AROUND 50.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1249 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014
MAIN CONCERNS ARE THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES AT
THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. STILL A LOT OF SPREAD BETWEEN THE
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE OUTPUT WITH SIMILAR TRENDS FROM
YESTERDAY. THE NEW ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE SLOWEST AND MOST
AMPLIFIED WITH UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING AND MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION IN THE SUNDAY TO MONDAY NIGHT PERIOD. THE CANADIAN IS THE
FASTEST WITH THE GFS IN THE MIDDLE.
WITH THE SLOWER ARRIVAL AND DRIER AIR MASS IN PLACE...SUNDAY NIGHT
IS LOOKING DRY AND LIKE WHAT THE CRH_INIT GAVE ME. BULK OF THE
TROUGH/ASSOCIATED LIFT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.
MODELS DIFFER ON PLACEMENT OF THE JET LIFT BUT THEY EITHER HAVE A
RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OR LEFT FRONT QUADRANT MOVING THROUGH DURING
THE DAY. EVEN THOUGH THE MODELS VARY IN THE SPEED THEY ARE MOVING
THE SYSTEM THROUGH...THEY IN GENERAL ARE A LITTLE SLOWER.
AS A RESULT OF THAT AND THE LIFT BEING STRONGER...RAINFALL LOOKS
LIKE IT LASTS INTO AT LEAST THE EVENING. SO LIKE THE LINGERING
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THE INIT GAVE ME AND WILL KEEP. BIG DIFFERENCES
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD AND BECAUSE OF THAT AND
GENERAL PATTERN SUPPORTING DRY CONDITIONS...KEPT THE DRY POPS THE
INIT GAVE ME.
SECONDARY PROBLEM WILL BE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY
FOLLOWED BY THE LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS. SAME
GENERAL PATTERN IN PLACE FOR SUNDAY WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
HOWEVER...MODEL OUTPUT IS NOW MORE CONSISTENT IN BACKING SOME KIND
OF BOUNDARY INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND THEN
LIFTING IT OUT SUNDAY. HOWEVER IT DOES LOOK LIKE THAT FRONT STAYS
OVER A PORTION OF THE AREA SO A BIG GRADIENT IN TEMPERATURE COULD
OCCUR THIS DAY AND THE FORECAST PROBLEMATIC. SO DECIDED TO NOT
TOUCH THOSE MAXES.
MODELS IN MORE AGREEMENT ON THE COOLER MAXES FOR MONDAY WITH THE
GFS/ECMWF IN BETTER WITH THE CANADIAN MUCH COLDER. FORECAST MAXES
LOOK REASONABLE BUT IT IS DEFINITELY POSSIBLE THAT MAXES COULD BE
EVEN COLDER THAN WHAT WILL BE IN THERE. FOR MONDAY NIGHT...SLOWER
DEPARTURE OF THE SYSTEM WILL KEEP CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE NIGHT AT THE VERY LEAST. DEFINITELY COULD SEE FROST WITH
THE NORTHWEST PORTION HAVE THE BEST SHOT FOR THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE JUST AS COLD OR COLDER
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WILL ALSO HAVE TO BE WATCHED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014
KGLD...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. MAY SEE SOME AFTERNOON CU THIS
MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AND SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT.
LIGHT WIND AT TAF ISSUANCE EXPECTED TO BACK TO THE SOUTH/SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST AROUND 10KTS BY 18Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT
BEFORE VEERING TO THE WEST NEAR 10KTS TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD.
KMCK...MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AT TAF ISSUANCE WITH IFR/VLIFR
CONDITIONS JUST EAST OR ON TOP OF THE TERMINAL FROM TAF ISSUANCE
THROUGH 14Z BEFORE BECOMING VFR THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF
PERIOD. WILL NEED TO WATCH THE 08Z-12Z TIMEFRAME FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF IFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS AS LOW LEVEL AIRMASS CURRENTLY
OVER THE TERMINAL REDEVELOPS DESPITE SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 5-10KTS.
LIGHT WEST WIND AT TAF ISSUANCE EXPECTED TO BACK TO THE SOUTH AT
SIMILAR SPEEDS BY 18Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH 03Z BEFORE VEERING TO
THE SOUTHWEST THEN WEST FROM 04Z THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF
PERIOD.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE IN JEOPARDY OF BEING TIED OR BROKEN
AT THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS FRIDAY OCTOBER 24:
BURLINGTON....84 IN 1952
COLBY.........87 IN 2003
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ002>004-
014>016-028-029-042.
CO...NONE.
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ080-081.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...99
CLIMATE...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1019 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014
THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY QUIET BY OCTOBER STANDARDS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER TODAY
WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE. TONIGHT A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL PROVIDE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.
SKIES WILL TURN PARTLY SUNNY ON FRIDAY WITH A COLD FRONT SET TO MOVE
THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. AT THIS POINT IT
LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH DRY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES THE REST OF THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 50S TO
AROUND 60.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1019 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014
WE HAVE ALLOWED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO COME TO AN END ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA. THERE ARE A FEW OBSERVATIONS AT THE AIRPORTS
STILL INDICATING VSBYS AROUND 1/4SM...HOWEVER CONDITIONS ARE
GENERALLY IMPROVING QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA. AN EXAMPLE IS KGRR
STILL REPORTING 3/4SM AT 1416Z...HOWEVER CONDITIONS AROUND MOST OF THE
AIRPORT HAVE IMPROVED MUCH MORE AT THE SAME TIME.
WE WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FCST FOR THE DAY TODAY. MOST OF THE LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS COMING IN
AFTER 00Z ACROSS THE LAKESHORE. WITH THE CURRENT MOVEMENT OF THE
RAIN SHOWERS IN WI MOVING MORE NORTH THAN EAST...IT WILL TAKE A
WHILE FOR PCPN TO MAKE IT TO THE AREA. ALSO...A DRY ATMOSPHERE IN
PLACE WILL ERODE THE PCPN AS IT TRIES TO MOVE TOWARD THE AREA..
UPDATE ISSUED AT 544 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014
HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
THROUGH 1000 AM. FOG HAS EXPANDED QUITE A BIT IN THE LAST HALF
HOUR WITH STRATUS BEGINNING TO SHOW UP IN THE FOG SATELLITE
PRODUCT WHICH IS INDICATIVE OF A MORE WIDESPREAD FOG. HAVE QUARTER
MILE VISIBILITIES IN ALL AREAS NOW AND IT WILL LIKELY EXPAND TO
AREAS NOT CURRENTLY SEEING IT. A LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW IS IN PLACE
IN THE LOWEST 50MB/S PER THE RUC13 AND THIS SHOULD ADVECT IT EVEN
TO THE LAKESHORE AREAS WITH TIME. WE STILL HAVE ABOUT 2.5 HOURS
BEFORE SUNRISE...SO IT SHOULD EXPAND AND BECOME MORE DENSE. NPWGRR
IS ALREADY OUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014
LIMITED CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM BUT THE FOCUS WAS ON EXTENT OF
FOG THIS MORNING...CHANCE FOR RAIN TONIGHT AND SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN
CHANCES SATURDAY MORNING.
AS FOR THE FOG...THINK WE ARE LOOKING AT PATCHY RADIATIONAL GROUND
FOG THIS MORNING. SEVERAL SITES ARE CURRENTLY AT A QUARTER OF A MILE
VISIBILITY SO WE WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON WHETHER OR NOT IT EXPANDS
AND BECOMES WORTHY OF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY. FOG SATELLITE PRODUCT IS
BEGINNING TO SHOW HINTS AT STRATUS FORMING.
REGARDING RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT...IT LOOKS ABOUT THE SAME AS THE LAST
FEW NIGHTS...30/40 PCT CHANCE ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST DURING THE
EVENING. A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY SEEN IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER
THE DAKOTAS MOVES THROUGH OUT REGION TONIGHT. SOME WEAK MOISTURE
TRANSPORT OCCURS AT 850MB/S ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH. FEEL
THE BEST CHANCES WILL OCCUR EARLY ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY
131...BECOMING ISOLATED OVERNIGHT AND ENDING.
ANOTHER BRIEF SHOT AT SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN MAY COME LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT TRAVERSES THE AREA. THE
MAIN UPPER SUPPORT WITH THIS FRONT IS WELL NORTH OF SOUTHWEST
LOWER...BUT THERE IS A PUSH OF SOME MOISTURE INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTH. THE ECMWF IS PAINTING SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIP ALONG THE LAKE
MICHIGAN SHORE SATURDAY MORNING. KEPT THE FORECAST DRY AT THIS POINT
AS NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH WE WILL SEE ANYTHING.
OTHERWISE...QUIET TODAY OUTSIDE OF SOME MORNING FOG. WE SHOULD
BECOME AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE
PEELS OFF TO THE EAST.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014
THE UPPER LOW MOVES TO EASTERN CANADA TO START THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
THIS WILL ALLOW UPPER AND SURFACE RIDGING TO BUILD OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THE CHILLY TEMPS WILL MOVE OUT OF THE REGION AS THIS
OCCURS WITH SOLID WARM ADVECTION BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE LATTER PART
OF THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY...BUT WE SHOULD SEE WARM
ADVECTION CLOUDS ARRIVE ON THE HEELS OF THIS WARMUP SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOULD MOVE IN MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT. THE
VIGOROUS SYSTEM THAT WAS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR THIS MORNING OFF THE
BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST SHOULD MOVE OVER THE ROCKIES AND HELP PUMP
WARM AND MOIST GULF AIR INTO THE REGION. THERE IS POOR AGREEMENT IN
THE MODELS ON THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM INTO MID WEEK BUT IT APPEARS
A COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT. SO THE RAIN
CHANCES SHOULD PEAK IN THIS TIME FRAME. ADDED THUNDER TO THE
FORECAST FOR TUESDAY GIVEN THE HIGHER TEMPS/DEWPOINTS EXPECTED WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT. IT SHOULD TURN COLDER AGAIN ONCE THE
FRONT PASSES WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 50S BY WED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 734 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014
DENSE FOG IS FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH
LIFR CONDITIONS PREVALENT. THE FOG AND STRATUS WILL LINGER INTO
THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE LIFTING BETWEEN 14Z AND 16Z. HIGH
CLOUDS WILL SPREAD IN DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT VFR WEATHER IS
FORECAST. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS
CLOUDS LOWER TO BASES AROUND 5000FT AFTER DARK. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
WILL SPREAD IN THIS EVENING AS WELL. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL TRY TO
SETTLE IN TONIGHT AS CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LOWER WITH TIME.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014
NO MARINE CONCERNS TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING
EAST ALLOWING FOR LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW TO TAKE HOLD. THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR WINDS AND WAVES BECOMING AN ISSUE WILL BE FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION. SATURDAY
ESPECIALLY...20-30 KNOT NORTHWEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED WHICH WILL
BOOST WAVE HEIGHTS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014
STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY HYDRO ISSUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. VERY
LIMITED RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. THE FIRST CHANCE FOR RAIN
WILL BE TONIGHT...BUT NOT EXPECTED TOTALS MORE THAN 0.05 ANYWHERE.
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RIVER LEVELS
REMAIN LOW AT THE PRESENT TIME.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...NJJ
SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...DUKE
MARINE...DUKE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
735 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014
THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY QUIET BY OCTOBER STANDARDS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER TODAY
WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE. TONIGHT A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL PROVIDE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.
SKIES WILL TURN PARTLY SUNNY ON FRIDAY WITH A COLD FRONT SET TO MOVE
THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. AT THIS POINT IT
LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH DRY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES THE REST OF THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 50S TO
AROUND 60.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 544 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014
HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
THROUGH 1000 AM. FOG HAS EXPANDED QUITE A BIT IN THE LAST HALF
HOUR WITH STRATUS BEGINNING TO SHOW UP IN THE FOG SATELLITE
PRODUCT WHICH IS INDICATIVE OF A MORE WIDESPREAD FOG. HAVE QUARTER
MILE VISIBILITIES IN ALL AREAS NOW AND IT WILL LIKELY EXPAND TO
AREAS NOT CURRENTLY SEEING IT. A LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW IS IN PLACE
IN THE LOWEST 50MB/S PER THE RUC13 AND THIS SHOULD ADVECT IT EVEN
TO THE LAKESHORE AREAS WITH TIME. WE STILL HAVE ABOUT 2.5 HOURS
BEFORE SUNRISE...SO IT SHOULD EXPAND AND BECOME MORE DENSE. NPWGRR
IS ALREADY OUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014
LIMITED CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM BUT THE FOCUS WAS ON EXTENT OF
FOG THIS MORNING...CHANCE FOR RAIN TONIGHT AND SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN
CHANCES SATURDAY MORNING.
AS FOR THE FOG...THINK WE ARE LOOKING AT PATCHY RADIATIONAL GROUND
FOG THIS MORNING. SEVERAL SITES ARE CURRENTLY AT A QUARTER OF A MILE
VISIBILITY SO WE WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON WHETHER OR NOT IT EXPANDS
AND BECOMES WORTHY OF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY. FOG SATELLITE PRODUCT IS
BEGINNING TO SHOW HINTS AT STRATUS FORMING.
REGARDING RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT...IT LOOKS ABOUT THE SAME AS THE LAST
FEW NIGHTS...30/40 PCT CHANCE ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST DURING THE
EVENING. A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY SEEN IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER
THE DAKOTAS MOVES THROUGH OUT REGION TONIGHT. SOME WEAK MOISTURE
TRANSPORT OCCURS AT 850MB/S ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH. FEEL
THE BEST CHANCES WILL OCCUR EARLY ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY
131...BECOMING ISOLATED OVERNIGHT AND ENDING.
ANOTHER BRIEF SHOT AT SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN MAY COME LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT TRAVERSES THE AREA. THE
MAIN UPPER SUPPORT WITH THIS FRONT IS WELL NORTH OF SOUTHWEST
LOWER...BUT THERE IS A PUSH OF SOME MOISTURE INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTH. THE ECMWF IS PAINTING SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIP ALONG THE LAKE
MICHIGAN SHORE SATURDAY MORNING. KEPT THE FORECAST DRY AT THIS POINT
AS NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH WE WILL SEE ANYTHING.
OTHERWISE...QUIET TODAY OUTSIDE OF SOME MORNING FOG. WE SHOULD
BECOME AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE
PEELS OFF TO THE EAST.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014
THE UPPER LOW MOVES TO EASTERN CANADA TO START THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
THIS WILL ALLOW UPPER AND SURFACE RIDGING TO BUILD OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THE CHILLY TEMPS WILL MOVE OUT OF THE REGION AS THIS
OCCURS WITH SOLID WARM ADVECTION BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE LATTER PART
OF THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY...BUT WE SHOULD SEE WARM
ADVECTION CLOUDS ARRIVE ON THE HEELS OF THIS WARMUP SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOULD MOVE IN MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT. THE
VIGOROUS SYSTEM THAT WAS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR THIS MORNING OFF THE
BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST SHOULD MOVE OVER THE ROCKIES AND HELP PUMP
WARM AND MOIST GULF AIR INTO THE REGION. THERE IS POOR AGREEMENT IN
THE MODELS ON THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM INTO MID WEEK BUT IT APPEARS
A COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT. SO THE RAIN
CHANCES SHOULD PEAK IN THIS TIME FRAME. ADDED THUNDER TO THE
FORECAST FOR TUESDAY GIVEN THE HIGHER TEMPS/DEWPOINTS EXPECTED WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT. IT SHOULD TURN COLDER AGAIN ONCE THE
FRONT PASSES WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 50S BY WED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 734 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014
DENSE FOG IS FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH
LIFR CONDITIONS PREVALENT. THE FOG AND STRATUS WILL LINGER INTO
THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE LIFTING BETWEEN 14Z AND 16Z. HIGH
CLOUDS WILL SPREAD IN DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT VFR WEATHER IS
FORECAST. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS
CLOUDS LOWER TO BASES AROUND 5000FT AFTER DARK. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
WILL SPREAD IN THIS EVENING AS WELL. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL TRY TO
SETTLE IN TONIGHT AS CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LOWER WITH TIME.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014
NO MARINE CONCERNS TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING
EAST ALLOWING FOR LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW TO TAKE HOLD. THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR WINDS AND WAVES BECOMING AN ISSUE WILL BE FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION. SATURDAY
ESPECIALLY...20-30 KNOT NORTHWEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED WHICH WILL
BOOST WAVE HEIGHTS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014
STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY HYDRO ISSUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. VERY
LIMITED RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. THE FIRST CHANCE FOR RAIN
WILL BE TONIGHT...BUT NOT EXPECTED TOTALS MORE THAN 0.05 ANYWHERE.
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RIVER LEVELS
REMAIN LOW AT THE PRESENT TIME.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ037>040-
043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DUKE
SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...DUKE
MARINE...DUKE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
602 AM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 402 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014
Early morning satellite and radar imagery show a notable trough
crossing the Plains of Canada and the United States while an
associated weak surface front which has yet to make it into our
forecast area. Pre-frontal lift has shifted into eastern Kansas and
northwest Missouri overnight bringing a progressive line of showers
to the region. Short range hi-res models like the HRRR and RUC point
at the current round of showers progressing slowly east this morning
along with the trough, but with the better upper level kinematics of
the trough shifting to our northeast, and weak to non-existent
surface convergence with the front, there wont be much to keep
storms going through the day. As a result, expect early morning
stormy activity to persist past sunrise but that it will likely fade
away during the afternoon hours. Only concern for the afternoon
hours is if the low clouds hold strong, providing an environment for
drizzle. Current model soundings do not look to support drizzle, so
have left it out for now. Otherwise, temperatures behind this system
are not particularly cool as highs in the 60s and 70s still look
possible across the region today.
After the trough moves through today a broad ridge will quickly move
in and dominate the weather for Friday and through the weekend. This
will result in a rebound in temperatures with our already above
normal readings continuing their run through the weekend. In fact,
expect some areas across the Missouri-Kansas border region may see
afternoon highs top out around 80 degrees over the weekend.
Next chance at stormy weather will arrive early next week, Monday
into Tuesday as a trough swings out of the mountainous west through
the Plains. Current model solutions advertise another round of
storms moving through Monday night through Tuesday. Also, with the
returning storms will come some more seasonally normal temperatures
as our highs in the 70s will retreat back into the 60s. However,
overnight low look to only range as low as the 40s, so it looks like
any frost or freeze issue might be at least another week away.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 559 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014
Showers moved into the terminals early this morning and will persist
in and around the Kansas City sites for a few hours past sunrise.
KSTJ will likely not see any more stormy activity given current radar
trends. Otherwise, have pushed ceilings down a little based on CIGS
heights noted across eastern Kansas. Expect clouds to lift and begin
scattering out this afternoon allowing VFR conditions to prevail for
the rest of the TAF period.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...Cutter
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
631 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014
H5 ANALYSIS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS A FAIRLY
ACTIVE PATTERN ACROSS CANADA AND THE CONUS. CLOSED LOW PRESSURE WAS
NOTED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH A SECOND LOW OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA. IN BETWEEN...LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER SRN MANITOBA WITH
A TROUGH EXTENDING SWD INTO THE DAKOTAS AND NEBRASKA. SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO LIFT EAST AND WERE IMPACTING FAR SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA
AS OF 3 AM CDT. BEHIND THIS AREA OF EXITING PRECIPITATION...AREAS OF
FOG HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN...CENTRAL AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. VISBYS WERE GENERALLY
UNDER ONE MILE WITH QUARTER MILE VISBYS REPORTED AT NORTH PLATTE AND
ORD. VISBYS HAVE BEEN FLUCTUATING AROUND 1/2SM AT ONEILL AND BROKEN
BOW. BASED ON ROAD CAMS AND SFC VISBYS...DECIDED TO HOIST A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING...FOR
LOCATIONS ROUGHLY EAST OF A LINE FROM MAYWOOD...TO NORTH PLATTE...TO
ONEILL. TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 AM CDT...RANGED FROM 36 AT OGALLALA TO
44 AT NORTH PLATTE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE MAIN
FORECAST CHALLENGE IS TEMPERATURES. FOR THIS MORNING...BASED ON THE
LATEST HRRR AND NAM SOLNS...FOG SHOULD BURN OFF FROM WEST TO EAST BY
LATE MORNING. DENSE FOG SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT BY MID MORNING AND WILL
CONTINUE THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 10 AM CDT. FOR THE REMAINDER
OF TODAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE DAKOTAS AND
NEBRASKA...WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL
ALLOW LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING TO BUILD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND NORTHERN
NEBRASKA TODAY. SPREAD BETWEEN THE MET AND MAV HIGHS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON IS FAIRLY MINIMAL...WITH THE MAV RUNNING 3 TO 10 DEGREES
WARMER COMPARED TO THE MET GUIDANCE. FOR THE FCST...TRENDED HIGHS
TOWARD THE COOLER MET GUIDANCE. THIS IS DUE TO FOG AND EXPECTED
CLOUDINESS...ESPECIALLY IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA THIS MORNING.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S IN THE EAST...TO THE
UPPER 70S IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST. FOR TONIGHT...ZONAL FLOW WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...WHILE AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. WESTERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS THE TROUGH TRACKS EAST...EFFECTIVELY ENDING ANY
THREAT IN THE CWA FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG TONIGHT. CLEAR SKIES
AND WESTERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW LOWS TO DROP INTO THE 40S
TONIGHT...WITH THE COOLEST READINGS IN THE WEST WHERE DRIER AIR
EXISTS. LIKE HIGHS TODAY...THE MAV GUIDANCE IS WARMER ON THE LOWS
TONIGHT COMPARED TO THE MET GUIDANCE. BASED ON THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS...THE GUIDANCE LOWS HAVE BEEN TOO WARM COMPARED ACTUALITY. WITH
THIS IN MIND AND GIVEN THE DRY CONDS IN PLACE...OPTED FOR THE COOLER
MET GUIDANCE LOWS FOR TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE UNITED STATES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FRIDAY
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A VERY WARM DAY...AS A SURFACE TROUGH
MAKES ITS WAY EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE MORNING. A
FAVORABLE WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WIND BEHIND THE FRONT WILL HELP TO
ENHANCE THE WARMING...AS WARM AIR ALOFT /H850MB TEMPS OF 20 TO
23C/ IS EASILY MIXED TO THE SURFACE. HIGHS APPEAR THEY WILL AT
LEAST TOP OUT IN THE MID 70S...WITH PERHAPS LOWER 80S ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING JUST A BIT OF
COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT HIGHS OF 70 TO 75
DEGREES STILL ARE EXPECTED BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
A CHANGE TO MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK. A LONG
WAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS EAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...WITH AN ASSOCIATED VIGOROUS PACIFIC COLD FRONT
USHERING IN COOLER AIR...AND LOWERING HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE
MID 50S AND LOWER 60S. MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WILL PROGRESS EAST
TO WEST ACROSS THE AREA AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA.
MOISTURE/HUMIDITY IN BOTH THE LOWER AND MID/UPPER LEVELS DOESN/T
LOOK THAT GREAT...SO DESPITE DECENT LIFT AS THE FGEN BAND CROSSES
THE AREA...THE LACK OF MOISTURE WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION...AND
WILL ONLY INCREASE POPS A BIT INTO THE LOW CHANCE CATEGORY AT THIS
TIME.
MODELS DIFFER BEYOND TUESDAY...WITH THE GFS BECOMING MORE
AMPLIFIED AND ALLOWS COLDER CANADIAN AIR TO SPILL SOUTH INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF BUILDS ANOTHER LARGE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH A WARMING TREND. THE
ENSEMBLE MEAN SEEMS TO BE SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN...SO AT THIS POINT
A NEAR CLIMATOLOGY FORECAST SEEMS MOST REASONABLE BEYOND TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014
FOR THE KLBF TERMINAL...EXPECT PATCHY FOG IN THE VICINITY OF THE
KLBF TERMINAL THROUGH 14Z WITH CLEAR SKIES AND UNLIMITED
VISIBILITY THEREAFTER. VISBYS WITH FOG...WILL BE
VARIABLE...RANGING FROM 1/2SM TO 2SM. FOR THE KVTN
TERMINAL...EXPECT CLEAR SKIES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SOME
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS AON 25000 FT AGL POSSIBLE TONIGHT.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ010-
027>029-038-059-071.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...CLB
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...CLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
622 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014
THE LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE DAKOTAS PUSHING AN OCCLUDED FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AHEAD OF THE FEATURES...A CHANNEL OF DEEP
MOISTURE IS EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN MEXICO INTO MINNESOTA AND
WESTERN WISCONSIN. A FEW SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE LEADING
EDGE OF THIS MOISTURE CHANNEL FROM IRONWOOD TO LA CROSSE.
HOWEVER...THE MAIN BAND OF BROKEN RAIN SHOWERS IS MOVING EAST OVER
EASTERN MINNESOTA. CLEAR SKIES RESUME BEHIND THE OCCLUDED FRONT OVER
THE DAKOTAS. THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE TIMING OF RAIN
CHANCES AS THE SHORTWAVE AND OCCLUDED FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY.
TODAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL PUSH A DECAYING
OCCLUDED FRONT EAST ACROSS THE STATE. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND
FRONT...WILL SEE DECENT MOISTURE WITHIN THE THETAE AXIS SPREAD EAST
WITH PWATS UPWARDS OF AN INCH. BUT FORCING AND INSTABILITY ARE ONLY
MODEST SO ALTHOUGH MOST PLACES WILL SEE LIGHT RAIN...AMOUNTS SHOULD
ONLY REACH A TENTH OR TWO. ADJUSTED THE TIMING OF THE BAND OF RAIN
ACROSS THE AREA SLIGHTLY SLOWER BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE. AMPLE
DRY AIR SHOULD KEEP AREAS ALONG THE BAY AND FOX VALLEY DRY THROUGH
THE MORNING THEN SHOULD SEE THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES ARRIVE BETWEEN
18-21Z. TEMPS WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO REACH INTO THE MIDDLE 50S
ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN BEFORE THE RAIN ARRIVES...BUT TEMPS WILL
LIKELY STRUGGLE TO REACH 50 OVER NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN SINCE RAIN
WILL ARRIVE DURING THE MORNING.
TONIGHT...WHATS LEFT OF THE LIGHT RAIN WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF
EXITING EASTERN WISCONSIN EARLY IN THE EVENING AND THINK RAIN
CHANCES WILL HAVE MOSTLY EXITED THE LAKE SHORE BY 03Z. PLENTY OF
DRY AIR ALOFT WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE...AND INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE WILL LOWER THE INVERSION. PROGGED SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BECOME TRAPPED BELOW THIS INVERSION AS SKIES
CLEAR OVERNIGHT. LOOKING UPSTREAM...VISIBILITIES ARE FALLING RIGHT
BEHIND THE CLOUD LINE OVER NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS SUPPORTS
A DECENT SETUP FOR FOG LATE TONIGHT AND WILL ADD TO THE FORECAST
EVERYWHERE. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S.
FRIDAY...ONCE ANY MORNING FOG BURNS OFF...SHOULD SEE A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE UNTIL THE AFTERNOON WHEN A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. SHOULD SEE CLOUDS INCREASE THERE...BUT MOSTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
PUSH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014
NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW FORECAST BY THE MODELS FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. MILDER THAN USUAL WEATHER EXPECTED AS
THE SURFACE HIGH MOVING IN IS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INSTEAD OF
FROM CANADA. UPPER FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUES UNTIL AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE FIRST ROUND OF PRECIPITATION MAY ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY
AS A WARM FRONT AS A WARM FRONT FORMS AND MOVES NORTH FROM
ILLINOIS. LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND CONVERGENCE SHOULD GENERATE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST
ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THE LOW INTENSIFIES AND LIFTS TO THE
NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH.
COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
A BIG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPS SOUTH FROM CANADA.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 622 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014
AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE STATE AND WILL BRING A
BROKEN BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE REGION BEFORE EXITING EASTERN
WISCONSIN EARLY THIS EVENING. EXPECT CIGS TO GRADUALLY FALL TO MVFR
OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY MIDDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT.
DURING THE EVENING...MVFR TO IFR CIGS MAY PERSIST ESPECIALLY OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF WISCONSIN AS THE FRONT PASSES OVER THE AREA. RESIDUAL
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS MAY ALSO ALLOW FOR SOME
AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP DURING THE EVENING AS WELL. THE FOG MAY
BECOME LOCALLY DENSE OVERNIGHT.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......MPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1101 AM PDT THU OCT 23 2014
.SYNOPSIS...THE WEAK TAIL END OF AN APPROACHING PACIFIC WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING SOME LIGHT RAINFALL TO THE NORTHERNMOST
PORTIONS OF OUR DISTRICT TODAY...OTHERWISE MILD CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND MILD...BUT THEN A
SOMEWHAT WETTER SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN ON SATURDAY AND SPREAD RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA. AFTER A FEW RESIDUAL SHOWERS ON
SUNDAY...DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE PROJECTED
INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:21 AM PDT THURSDAY...A DEEP MOISTURE PLUME
CONTINUES TO IMPACT NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING WITH JUST
ABOUT ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION OCCURRING NORTH OF THE REGION.
LOOKING AT THE LATEST HRRR AND OTHER MODEL OUTPUT...HAVE BACKED
OFF ON PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTH BAY AND KEPT ONLY A CHANCE TO
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN NORTH OF THE GOLDEN GATE. FURTHER SOUTH...WE
CAN EXPECT WARMER TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WITH PLENTY OF HIGH
CLOUDS STREAMING OVER OUR NORTHERN AREAS. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:09 AM PDT THURSDAY...MAINLY HIGH
CLOUDS ARE STREAMING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA AT
THIS TIME...AS THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF A SYSTEM NOW AFFECTING THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST MOVES THROUGH. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ECHOES
ARE MAINLY REMAINING NORTH OF SONOMA AND NAPA COUNTIES AT THIS
TIME AND NO APPRECIABLE RAINFALL HAS YET BEEN PICKED UP BY
AUTOMATED GAUGES. EXPECT THE RAIN LINE TO SAG INTO THE NORTH BAY
TODAY BUT NOT MUCH RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS WEAK SYSTEM.
AFTER THIS WEAK SYSTEM MOVES TO THE EAST...A STRONGER SYSTEM IS
PROGGED TO AFFECT MORE OF THE DISTRICT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES EXTENDING AS FAR SOUTH AS WELL INTO
MONTEREY COUNTY BY MIDDAY SATURDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO ONE
INCH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH BAY...WITH MUCH
LESS FROM THE BAY AREA SOUTH. AS THE UPPER LOW CENTER MOVES
ACROSS...ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND COLDER AIR ALOFT FOR A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH BAY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS TO TAPER OFF ON SUNDAY THEN DRIER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. THERE CONTINUES TO
BE LARGE DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REGARDING
RAIN CHANCES NEXT WEEK. THUS HAVE LEFT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE NORTH FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BUT DRY ELSEWHERE. LOW
CONFIDENCE.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 10:50 AM PDT THURSDAY...LARGE AREA OF MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE BAY AREA AS
A LOW MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. CURRENT EXPECTATIONS ARE
THAT THE RAIN WILL NOT MAKE IT TO ANY TERMINALS SO HAVE NOT
MENTIONED ANY RAIN IN THE TAFS. LOWER CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT ESPECIALLY TOWARDS THE 12Z FRI TIME FRAME. THESE LOWER
CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE REMAINING TAF PERIOD.
VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS WITH JUST MID AND HIGH CLOUDS.
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE REDUCED CEILINGS AFTER
07Z. THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. LOW-
MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL DAY WITH
JUST SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING IN. MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP
AFTER 06Z AND WORSEN AROUND 13Z FRI AND PERIST THROUGH END OF TAF
PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 10:51 AM PDT THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WHILE LOW PRESSURE IS OFF
VANCOUVER ISLAND. THIS IS BRINGING LIGHT WINDS TO THE AREA WITH
STRONGER WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN WATERS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEEPENS OFF THE OREGON COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTER THE LOW MOVES INLAND.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...NONE.
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: JOHNSON
VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
931 AM PDT THU OCT 23 2014
.SYNOPSIS...THE WEAK TAIL END OF AN APPROACHING PACIFIC WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING SOME LIGHT RAINFALL TO THE NORTHERNMOST
PORTIONS OF OUR DISTRICT TODAY...OTHERWISE MILD CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND MILD...BUT THEN A
SOMEWHAT WETTER SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN ON SATURDAY AND SPREAD RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA. AFTER A FEW RESIDUAL SHOWERS ON
SUNDAY...DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE PROJECTED
INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:21 AM PDT THURSDAY...A DEEP MOISTURE PLUME
CONTINUES TO IMPACT NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING WITH JUST
ABOUT ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION OCCURRING NORTH OF THE REGION.
LOOKING AT THE LATEST HRRR AND OTHER MODEL OUTPUT...HAVE BACKED
OFF ON PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTH BAY AND KEPT ONLY A CHANCE TO
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN NORTH OF THE GOLDEN GATE. FURTHER SOUTH...WE
CAN EXPECT WARMER TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WITH PLENTY OF HIGH
CLOUDS STREAMING OVER OUR NORTHERN AREAS. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:09 AM PDT THURSDAY...MAINLY HIGH
CLOUDS ARE STREAMING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA AT
THIS TIME...AS THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF A SYSTEM NOW AFFECTING THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST MOVES THROUGH. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ECHOES
ARE MAINLY REMAINING NORTH OF SONOMA AND NAPA COUNTIES AT THIS
TIME AND NO APPRECIABLE RAINFALL HAS YET BEEN PICKED UP BY
AUTOMATED GAUGES. EXPECT THE RAIN LINE TO SAG INTO THE NORTH BAY
TODAY BUT NOT MUCH RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS WEAK SYSTEM.
AFTER THIS WEAK SYSTEM MOVES TO THE EAST...A STRONGER SYSTEM IS
PROGGED TO AFFECT MORE OF THE DISTRICT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES EXTENDING AS FAR SOUTH AS WELL INTO
MONTEREY COUNTY BY MIDDAY SATURDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO ONE
INCH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH BAY...WITH MUCH
LESS FROM THE BAY AREA SOUTH. AS THE UPPER LOW CENTER MOVES
ACROSS...ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND COLDER AIR ALOFT FOR A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH BAY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS TO TAPER OFF ON SUNDAY THEN DRIER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. THERE CONTINUES TO
BE LARGE DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REGARDING
RAIN CHANCES NEXT WEEK. THUS HAVE LEFT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE NORTH FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BUT DRY ELSEWHERE. LOW
CONFIDENCE.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 4:30 AM PDT THURSDAY...SATELLITE IMAGE SUGGESTS
AREAS OF STRATUS ALONG THE COASTAL HILLS OF THE SFO EXTENDING INTO
SFO AND OAK AS WELL AS THE NORTH BAY VALLEYS. THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL
ALLOW FOR SLOWER CLEARING OF THE STRATUS AND THEREFORE BURN-OFF
TIME IS NOT UNTIL 18-19Z DESPITE THE PATCHY NATURE OF THE STRATUS.
VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...NO STRATUS REPORTED IN THE MRY BAY
AREA THIS MORNING. BELIEVE THERE MAY BE AN OFFSHORE DRAINAGE WIND
THAT IS KEEPING THE COASTAL STRATUS OUT OF THE BAY. FT ORD
PROFILER SUPPORTS THIS. THEREFORE FORECAST HAS BEEN CHANGED TO VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE DAY.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 3:05 AM PDT THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WHILE LOW PRESSURE IS OFF
VANCOUVER ISLAND. THIS IS BRINGING LIGHT WINDS TO THE AREA WITH
STRONGER WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN WATERS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEEPENS OFF THE OREGON COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTER THE LOW MOVES INLAND.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...NONE.
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: W PI
VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
135 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM CENTERED SOUTH OF CAPE COD...WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF RAINFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY PULL
AWAY FROM THE REGION AND MOVE OUT TO SEA ON FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL
FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 127 PM EDT...A STACKED COASTAL STORM CONTINUES TO SIT AND
SPIN JUST SOUTH OF EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. A BAND OF STEADY RAIN HAS
MOVED WESTWARD INTO THE WEST-CENTRAL ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK AND
SCHOHARIE VALLEYS...AND EASTERN CATSKILLS. OUR LOCAL HIRESWRF AND
THE 3KM HRRR SHOW THIS BAND CONTINUING TO MOVE WESTWARD AND WEAKEN
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FURTHER EAST...THERE MAY BE A FEW
LINGERING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT THE BULK OF
THE RAIN FOR THIS AFTN HAS ENDED FOR THE HUDSON VALLEY ON
EASTWARD. HAVE LOWERED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST RADAR
TRENDS...BUT WILL KEEP POPS AT LEAST CHC IN ALL AREAS...SINCE A
FEW LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE DUE TO
THE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE.
WITH THE CLOUDS...PERIODS OF RAIN AND PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS
AT THE SURFACE...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE MUCH MOST HIGH TEMPS
REMAINING BETWEEN 45-50...WITH POSSIBLY SOME LOWER 50S IN PORTIONS
OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS IN LITCHFIELD CO. IT
IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY REMAIN IN THE
LOWER/MID 40S THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL START TO PULL AWAY FROM THE COAST
TONIGHT AND FARTHER OUT TO SEA. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE LARGE
GEOGRAPHIC SCOPE OF THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION WE WILL STILL BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME...WITH PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. SO OVERCAST CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY LIGHT RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF BY
FRIDAY MORNING. WILL MENTION LIKELY POPS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EVENING...TAPERING TO CHANCE AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS THE LOW TRACKS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST. AS THE FLOW REGIME
STARTS TO TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY FRIDAY MORNING...SOME UPSLOPE
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST AND
WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY.
WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LOOSEN ITS GRIP ON THE REGION
FRIDAY...THE FLOW WILL STILL BE MAINLY CYCLONIC WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WRAPPING BACK AROUND THE LOW. SO WE ARE EXPECTING PLENTY OF
CLOUDS DESPITE CHANCES FOR RAIN DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHANCE BY
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...IT WILL BE A SEASONABLY COOL DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THURSDAY. A FEW BREAKS OF
SUN MAY BE POSSIBLE TOWARDS SUNSET SOUTH AND WEST OF ALBANY.
SKIES EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CLEAR FRIDAY NIGHT...AS A SMALL SURFACE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS DUE TO LESS CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER... THE
NEXT SYSTEM WILL ALREADY BE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY
EARLY SATURDAY...AS A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
STRONG UPPER JET APPROACHES. SO SATURDAY SHOULD START OUT WITH SOME
SUNSHINE...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT LATE IN THE DAY. WITH ENOUGH SUNSHINE...HIGH TEMPS
COULD REACH THE LOWER 60S IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER
SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL AFFECT THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
LATEST MODEL RUNS TRACK THESE SYSTEMS FURTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS...WHICH RESULTS IN LESS PCPN ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ON
SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THIS SYSTEM WILL MAINLY PRODUCE
PCPN ACROSS NORTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...WITH LITTLE IF ANY PCPN
ACROSS SOUTHEAST AREAS AND MOST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. HAVE FORECAST
LIKELY POPS OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT...DECREASING TO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. ON SUNDAY POPS WILL RANGE FROM
HIGH CHANCE LEVELS OVER THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO SLIGHT CHANCE
OR DRY CONDITIONS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL STILL BE MILD WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S. FOLLOWING THE TROF PASSAGE...IT WILL TURN BLUSTERY WITH
SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN NORMAL TEMPS ON SUNDAY...HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO
BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER TO
START THE NEW WORK WEEK. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30 TO 40
DEGREE RANGE. HIGHS MONDAY 50 TO 60. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID
30S TO LOWER 40S. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S.
DURING TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WED AFTN AND EVENING. MOST OF
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY...BUT POPS ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO BETWEEN
20 AND 40 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
40S. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED SOUTH OF CAPE COD WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
PROVIDING A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ALTHOUGH THE MAIN BAND OF LIGHT-MODERATE RAIN WILL SHIFT WEST OF
THE TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS...LINGERING AREAS OF LIGHTER
RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL PERSIST WELL INTO TONIGHT. THIS...COMBINED
WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKING SLIGHTLY MORE INTO THE NORTH AND
DECREASING THE AMT OF DOWNSLOPING OFF THE SOUTHERN GREENS AND
BERKSHIRES...SHOULD ALLOW FOR MVFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY...WITH SOME POSSIBILITY OF OCCASIONAL IFR...ESP AT
KALB AND KPSF.
MVFR CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 15Z/FRI...ESP AT
KGFL/KALB AND KPOU.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY NORTHERLY AT ALL THE TAF SITES AT 8
TO 12 KTS...WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF
PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM CENTERED SOUTH OF CAPE COD...WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF RAINFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY PULL
AWAY FROM THE REGION AND MOVE OUT TO SEA ON FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL
FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL ONLY BE 70 PERCENT OR GREATER
TODAY. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED BE BETWEEN 90 AND 100
PERCENT. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF AROUND 50 TO 65
PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS TODAY WILL BE NORTHERLY AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS
NEAR 20 MPH. WINDS TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15
MPH...INCREASING TO AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH ON FRIDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
PERIODS OF RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. THE RAIN WILL FALL MODERATE TO BRIEFLY
HEAVY IN INTENSITY AT TIMES. THROUGH TONIGHT...ABOUT AN ADDITIONAL
INCH OF RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY UP TO TWO INCHES
ACROSS THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS IN
SOUTHERN VERMONT...THE BERKSHIRES AND TACONICS. DUE TO RECENT DRY
WEATHER...THIS RAINFALL IS RATHER BENEFICIAL TO THE REGION. THERE
WILL BE SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO RIVER
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. THERE MAY BE SOME PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS OR FIELDS...OR IN POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS...BUT
THE IMPACT SHOULD BE RATHER MINIMAL.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/JPV
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/JPV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
127 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM CENTERED SOUTH OF CAPE COD...WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF RAINFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY PULL
AWAY FROM THE REGION AND MOVE OUT TO SEA ON FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL
FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 127 PM EDT...A STACKED COASTAL STORM CONTINUES TO SIT AND
SPIN JUST SOUTH OF EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. A BAND OF STEADY RAIN HAS
MOVED WESTWARD INTO THE WEST-CENTRAL ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK AND
SCHOHARIE VALLEYS...AND EASTERN CATSKILLS. OUR LOCAL HIRESWRF AND
THE 3KM HRRR SHOW THIS BAND CONTINUING TO MOVE WESTWARD AND WEAKEN
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FURTHER EAST...THERE MAY BE A FEW
LINGERING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT THE BULK OF
THE RAIN FOR THIS AFTN HAS ENDED FOR THE HUDSON VALLEY ON
EASTWARD. HAVE LOWERED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST RADAR
TRENDS...BUT WILL KEEP POPS AT LEAST CHC IN ALL AREAS...SINCE A
FEW LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE DUE TO
THE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE.
WITH THE CLOUDS...PERIODS OF RAIN AND PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS
AT THE SURFACE...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE MUCH MOST HIGH TEMPS
REMAINING BETWEEN 45-50...WITH POSSIBLY SOME LOWER 50S IN PORTIONS
OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS IN LITCHFIELD CO. IT
IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY REMAIN IN THE
LOWER/MID 40S THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL START TO PULL AWAY FROM THE COAST
TONIGHT AND FARTHER OUT TO SEA. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE LARGE
GEOGRAPHIC SCOPE OF THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION WE WILL STILL BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME...WITH PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. SO OVERCAST CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY LIGHT RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF BY
FRIDAY MORNING. WILL MENTION LIKELY POPS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EVENING...TAPERING TO CHANCE AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS THE LOW TRACKS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST. AS THE FLOW REGIME
STARTS TO TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY FRIDAY MORNING...SOME UPSLOPE
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST AND
WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY.
WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LOOSEN ITS GRIP ON THE REGION
FRIDAY...THE FLOW WILL STILL BE MAINLY CYCLONIC WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WRAPPING BACK AROUND THE LOW. SO WE ARE EXPECTING PLENTY OF
CLOUDS DESPITE CHANCES FOR RAIN DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHANCE BY
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...IT WILL BE A SEASONABLY COOL DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THURSDAY. A FEW BREAKS OF
SUN MAY BE POSSIBLE TOWARDS SUNSET SOUTH AND WEST OF ALBANY.
SKIES EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CLEAR FRIDAY NIGHT...AS A SMALL SURFACE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS DUE TO LESS CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER... THE
NEXT SYSTEM WILL ALREADY BE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY
EARLY SATURDAY...AS A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
STRONG UPPER JET APPROACHES. SO SATURDAY SHOULD START OUT WITH SOME
SUNSHINE...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT LATE IN THE DAY. WITH ENOUGH SUNSHINE...HIGH TEMPS
COULD REACH THE LOWER 60S IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER
SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL AFFECT THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
LATEST MODEL RUNS TRACK THESE SYSTEMS FURTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS...WHICH RESULTS IN LESS PCPN ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ON
SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THIS SYSTEM WILL MAINLY PRODUCE
PCPN ACROSS NORTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...WITH LITTLE IF ANY PCPN
ACROSS SOUTHEAST AREAS AND MOST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. HAVE FORECAST
LIKELY POPS OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT...DECREASING TO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. ON SUNDAY POPS WILL RANGE FROM
HIGH CHANCE LEVELS OVER THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO SLIGHT CHANCE
OR DRY CONDITIONS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL STILL BE MILD WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S. FOLLOWING THE TROF PASSAGE...IT WILL TURN BLUSTERY WITH
SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN NORMAL TEMPS ON SUNDAY...HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO
BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER TO
START THE NEW WORK WEEK. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30 TO 40
DEGREE RANGE. HIGHS MONDAY 50 TO 60. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID
30S TO LOWER 40S. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S.
DURING TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WED AFTN AND EVENING. MOST OF
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY...BUT POPS ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO BETWEEN
20 AND 40 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
40S. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF NEW JERSEY WILL
TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
PROVIDING A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AS OF 700 AM...WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF
TAF SITES...BUT CIGS/VSBYS MAINLY IN THE MVFR TO OCCASIONAL VFR
RANGE. THE RAIN AND MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE TAF
SITES THROUGH THE MORNING. ALTHOUGH THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH IFR
CONDITIONS REPORTED DURING THE NIGHT...HAVE INCLUDE SOME TEMPO
GROUPS FOR IFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH 14Z AT KALB/KPSF WHERE IT
APPEARS THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL DURING THIS PERIOD.
DURING THE AFTERNOON...KPOU WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR AS THE
RAIN TAPERS TO -SHRA. ELSEWHERE...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING...THEN IMPROVE TO VFR AT KALB AND KGFL AFTER MIDNIGHT.
AT KPSF...VSBYS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR TONIGHT...BUT CIGS WILL REMAIN
MVFR.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AT ALL THE TAF SITES AT 8 TO 12
KTS...WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM CENTERED SOUTH OF CAPE COD...WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF RAINFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY PULL
AWAY FROM THE REGION AND MOVE OUT TO SEA ON FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL
FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL ONLY BE 70 PERCENT OR GREATER
TODAY. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED BE BETWEEN 90 AND 100
PERCENT. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF AROUND 50 TO 65
PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS TODAY WILL BE NORTHERLY AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS
NEAR 20 MPH. WINDS TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15
MPH...INCREASING TO AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH ON FRIDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
PERIODS OF RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. THE RAIN WILL FALL MODERATE TO BRIEFLY
HEAVY IN INTENSITY AT TIMES. THROUGH TONIGHT...ABOUT AN ADDITIONAL
INCH OF RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY UP TO TWO INCHES
ACROSS THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS IN
SOUTHERN VERMONT...THE BERKSHIRES AND TACONICS. DUE TO RECENT DRY
WEATHER...THIS RAINFALL IS RATHER BENEFICIAL TO THE REGION. THERE
WILL BE SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO RIVER
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. THERE MAY BE SOME PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS OR FIELDS...OR IN POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS...BUT
THE IMPACT SHOULD BE RATHER MINIMAL.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/JPV
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...KL/GJM
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/JPV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
327 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014
.DISCUSSION...
327 PM CDT
AFTERNOON GOES VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH
PROPAGATING THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH A WEAK
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE REFLECTION OVER EAST CENTRAL IOWA. AS EXPECTED
THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD/INTO THIS SYSTEM IS RATHER SPARSE...
WITH A FAIRLY NARROW RIBBON OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST IL AND SOUTHERN WI. HIGH-RES
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THIS EVENING...THOUGH WITH
COVERAGE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT LIMITED AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN WITH LOSS OF DEFINITION OF
THE SURFACE WAVE AND LOW PRESSURE TROUGH. IN ADDITION TO THE
EXTENSIVE MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL LIKELY OBSCURE PARTIAL SOLAR ECLIPSE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...LOWER CLOUDS ALSO EXPECTED AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AXIS ARRIVES. SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA WHERE LIGHT WINDS AND 45-50 DEGREE
SURFACE DEW POINT TEMPS WILL RESULT IN HIGH LOW LEVEL RH...THOUGH
CLEARING SKIES WILL BE MORE LIKELY WEST OF THE CWA WHERE SIGNIFICANT
DENSE FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. AT LEAST CLOUD COVER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL KEEP TEMPS A
LITTLE MILDER OVERNIGHT.
SHORT-WAVE WILL MOVE QUICKLY SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH MODEST HEIGHT RISES AND A SUBTLE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA. ANOTHER TRAILING SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER
THE ROCKIES IS PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS MISSOURI AND
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ILLINOIS FRIDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WHICH MAY
KEEP A LITTLE CLOUD COVER AROUND. OTHERWISE...DOMINANT WEATHER
FEATURE BECOMES A BROAD UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER WEST TEXAS WHICH
COVERS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS INTO THE WEEKEND. A STRONG 150+ KT
UPPER JET FLATTENS THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AS IT RIDES ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER FRIDAY...THOUGH THE MAIN AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE
REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. A
COLD FRONT DOES TRAIL INTO THE REGION HOWEVER...MOVING ACROSS THE
CWA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SOME GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE SOME VERY
SPOTTY/VERY LIGHT QPF WITH FROPA DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS SATURDAY
ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE MUCH LESS IMPRESSIVE WITH PRECIP THAN WITH
CURRENT WAVE...WITH SREF POPS LESS THAN 20 PERCENT. COLD FRONT
COMPLETES THE TRANSIT OF THE CWA SATURDAY MORNING...THOUGH PACIFIC
NATURE OF THE FRONT PRODUCES ONLY MODEST COOLING AS IT SHIFTS WINDS
TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY. LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROGS AND
POTENTIAL FOR A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE SUPPORT TEMPS IN THE 65-AROUND
70 RANGE DESPITE THE SLIGHT COOL ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT...AS
UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO AMPLIFY AND DEVELOP INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY SUNDAY AS
LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES ASHORE IN THE WEST...WITH A LARGE
LEE TROUGH DEVELOPING EAST OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. LOW
PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH A WARM FRONT
LIFTING ACROSS IA-IL SUNDAY NIGHT. SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF
THE WARM FRONT...IN ADDITION TO CLOUD DEVELOPMENT NORTH OF THE WARM
FRONT LOOK TO TEMPER WARM-UP ONLY SLIGHTLY...WITH 60-66 FOR HIGHS
WITH COOLEST AIR ALONG THE IL LAKE SHORE. SOME POTENTIAL FOR
ELEVATED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT
SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN IL.
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE CWA MONDAY...WITH BREEZY/WARM AND MORE
HUMID AIR IN THE WARM SECTOR SUPPORTING TEMPS IN THE 70S AREA-WIDE.
ECMWF/GFS AND GEM ALL INDICATE VERY LITTLE PRECIP IN THE WARM SECTOR
WITH THE MAIN FOCUS ALONG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST. RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THUS INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS
THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST THROUGH THE REGION.
BREEZY AND COOLER CONDITIONS THEN RETURN AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY TO
THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SOME DIFFERENCES REMAIN
WITH THE HANDLING OF THE LOW DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK...THOUGH THIS
MAINLY AFFECTS HOW QUICKLY WE DRY OUT ON TUESDAY. OTHERWISE GUIDANCE
IS ACTUALLY QUITE REASONABLE IN AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
RATZER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...
* SW WINDS GUSTING TO ARND 17KT THIS AFTN.
* SCATTERED -SHRA THIS EVENING.
* MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AFTER THE SHOWERS...IFR PSBL.
JEE
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WITH A LINE OF
SHOWERS EXTENDING INTO NORTHWEST IL. THE BAND OF SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE EAST AND EXPECTING IT TO REMAIN RAGGED WITH HIT OR MISS
SHOWERS. RFD HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING AN ORGANIZED SHOWER
THIS AFTN. THE EASTERN TERMINALS WILL MOST LIKELY SEE SCATTERED
SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE THIS EVENING.
UPSTREAM OBS INDICATE THAT CIGS WILL FALL TO MVFR OR LOWER BEHIND
THE SHOWERS. HAVE THE MOST CONFIDENCE IN THE RFD TAF WITH IFR
CIGS. HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN FOG AT RFD AND MEDIUM IN 1/4SM.
CLOUDS SHOULD LAST LONGER OVER THE EASTERN TERMINALS SO KEPT CIGS
IN THE MVFR RANGE WITH FOG ONLY AT DPA. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO
VFR QUICKLY TOMORROW AS THE CLOUDS SHIFT EAST. LIGHT WINDS
OVERNIGHT BECOME SW BTWN 5 AND 8 KT.
JEE
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE AND OCCURRENCE OF -SHRA...MEDIUM-
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS AND TIMING...LOW CONFIDENCE IN
HOW LOW THE CIGS WILL BE.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS.
JEE
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
* FRIDAY NIGHT...DRY. MVFR/FOG POSSIBLE.
* SATURDAY...DRY/VFR. GUSTY WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS.
* SUNDAY...DRY/VFR. WEST WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST.
* MONDAY...DRY/VFR. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS.
* TUESDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA. STRONG/GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS.
* WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA. WEST WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...
244 PM CDT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
EAST ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES RESULTING IN GENERALLY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE LAKE. THIS LOW WILL MOVE OVER JAMES BAY
SATURDAY DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN AND TURNING
WINDS TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST. THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT IS SLOW
TO TRICKLE IN AND THE AIRMASS IS SHALLOW...SO WHILE THERE ARE
GALES JUST OFF THE DECK...IT DOESNT APPEAR THAT THEY WOULD MIX
DOWN TO THE LAKE SURFACE AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL PEAK
OCCASIONALLY TO 30 KT SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN SHOULD
TREND DOWN THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK
OVER THE REGION. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO LIFT
ACROSS THE REGION AROUND MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK AND WILL ONCE AGAIN
BRING MODERATE WINDS TO LAKE MICHIGAN.
BMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
257 PM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014
19z/2pm surface analysis shows weak cold front/trough axis extending
from Minnesota to northern Kansas. Band of clouds and light showers
accompanies this feature from Missouri northeastward into Wisconsin,
although showers have been struggling to spread eastward into the
very dry airmass across Illinois. Forecast soundings suggest
continued top-down moistening this afternoon and evening as 500mb
trough approaches from the west. Despite decent lift ahead of the
trough, dry airmass will be the main mitigating factor for
widespread precip development. Will therefore continue to feature
just slight chance PoPs this evening across all locations north of
the I-70 corridor and across the N/NE KILX CWA overnight. Rainfall
totals will be quite light, amounting to little more than a couple
hundredths of an inch at best. Due to the clouds, overnight lows
will be quite a but warmer than in recent nights, with readings
remaining in the middle to upper 40s. Skies may temporarily clear
along/west of the Illinois River late tonight: however, with light
winds and plenty of surface-based moisture in place, think fog
and/or low clouds will develop toward dawn. Have therefore included
patchy fog mention across the W/NW overnight. HRRR suggests
widespread fog and lowest visbys will develop further west
along/west of the Mississippi River.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014
Initial forecast challenge will be how quickly the low level
moisture/clouds are able to clear out during the day Friday as
forecast soundings not looking very optimistic, at least thru
the morning hours. However, we do see some drying taking place
in the lower levels of the atmosphere in the wake of the shortwave
by late morning/early afternoon. Will keep the clouds and mention
of early morning fog in for a few hours after sunrise and then
forecast a gradual decrease in clouds from northwest to southeast
during the day. Models continue to bring a weak cold front into
our area late Friday night into Saturday with very little moisture
to work, with so will continue with the dry forecast later Friday
night thru Saturday morning. After that, some very nice weather in
store for the area thru Monday evening as upper level ridging
builds across the center of the country in response to a rather
deep trof pushing across the western U.S.
Models in decent agreement with respect to the magnitude of the
trof forecast to push across our area on Tuesday and the timing
of the cold frontal passage and rain chances ahead of it starting
late Monday night with likely POPs most areas on Tuesday. Before
the rain moves in though, some pleasantly warm weather is in store
for the region this weekend with summer-like temperatures on Monday
thanks to a gusty south to southwest wind. Despite the weak cold
frontal passage on Saturday, temperatures on Sunday will only cool
about 5 degrees most areas, but rise well into the 70s on Monday
afternoon with low 80s possible in the southeast. Rain chances will
increase ahead of the low pressure system late Monday night in the
west and over all of our area on Tuesday as the front sweeps across
the area. Strong dynamics aloft with 0-6km shear values of 40-50
kts and models indicating surface dew points climbing to around 60
just ahead of the front. Will have to monitor for the possibility
for strong to severe storms Tuesday afternoon if the models continue
with the slowing trend with the frontal passage.
Rain chances start to decrease from west to east Tuesday evening in the
wake of the storm system with dry weather expected for the remainder
of the period. Temperatures will cool back closer to where they should
be for the end of October.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014
Mid/high clouds continue to spread eastward across central
Illinois early this afternoon, while MVFR ceilings remain further
west along/behind a trough axis extending from eastern Iowa into
northern Missouri. As this feature moves slowly eastward, clouds
will lower later this afternoon into the evening and a few light
showers will be possible. HRRR guidance suggests low clouds will
stay west of the central Illinois terminals until this evening,
with MVFR ceilings arriving at KPIA by 01z then further east to
KCMI by 08z. Based on 12z NAM forecast soundings and latest HRRR,
think clearing late tonight into Friday morning will be much
slower than previously expected. While skies may temporarily clear
along/west of the Illinois late tonight, light winds/ample low-level
moisture will lead to fog and low cloud re-development. End result
will be overcast conditions until mid-morning Friday at the earliest.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...Barnes
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
246 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014
.DISCUSSION...
303 AM CDT
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM CENTRAL QUEBEC SOUTHWEST
THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. EARLY THIS MORNING THIS
RIDGE HAS BEEN ABLE TO KEEP CLOUD COVER DISPLACED WEST OF THE
REGION. BASED ON LATEST SFC OBS THE PRESSURE FALLS ARE NOT VERY
LARGE...WHICH COULD BE AN INDICATOR THAT LATER TODAY THE ABILITY FOR
THE ATMOSPHERE TO PRODUCE ABUNDANT MOISTURE/PRECIP MAY BE
DIMINISHED. IR IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS A MOIST CHANNEL THAT
EXTENDS FROM THE CANADIAN BORDER OF THE UPPER MIDWEST...SOUTH TO
THE MEXICO BORDER/WESTERN GULF. THE PROGRESSION TO THE EAST HAS BEEN
VERY SLOW...AND LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT AS THIS
FEATURE PUSHES EAST IT WILL ENCOUNTER MUCH DRIER AIR AND DIMINISH
THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF PRECIP.
WITH THE LGT WINDS AND MINIMAL CLOUD COVER EARLY THIS MORNING...SOME
LOCATIONS ARE BEGINNING TO SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP...MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHWEST INDIANA. TEMPS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO RADIATE INTO THE MID
30S...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR WESTERN CWFA WHERE A THIN
CIRRUS DECK HAS ARRIVED AND HELD TEMPS IN THE UPR 30S/NEAR 40.
AS THE MOIST CHANNEL SLOWLY SLIDES EAST TODAY...EXPECT A STEADY
THICKENING TO THE CLOUD COVER. WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHERLY WITH SOME
BETTER MIXING DEVELOPING AND PERHAPS BRINGING WINDS UP TO 10-20MPH
BY LATE AFTN. GUIDANCE HAS BECOME MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH PRECIP
COVERAGE/INTENSITY LATER TODAY...AND AS A RESULT HAVE BACKED OFF ON
POPS ALONG WITH QUANTITY OF PRECIP. THE NEAR SFC ENVIRONMENT STILL
LOOKS TO REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY...ALTHOUGH SOME MOISTENING WILL
OCCUR. EXPECT THE BEST PRECIP COVERAGE TO OCCUR FURTHER
NORTH...HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF LGT RAIN ACROSS ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY EVE. TROUGH AXIS WILL BE SLIDING
EAST ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL WISC BY 3Z. TEMPS TODAY WILL WARM INTO THE
50S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...AND SOUTH OF I-80 A FEW 60S.
FOR TONIGHT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH...AND DEPARTING
PRECIP/CLOUD COVER...THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT PATCHY FOG WILL
DEVELOP. UPSTREAM THIS HAS ALREADY BEEN NOTED...AND EXPECT THIS
SIMILAR SETUP TO OCCUR OVER A PORTION OF THE CWFA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
BUT WILL HINGE UPON HOW QUICKLY CLOUDS WILL DEPART. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID/UPR 40S.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A WEAK LOBE OF VORTICITY IS PROGGED TO SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...ARRIVING OVER THE FORECAST AREA FRI AFTN/EVE. LOCAL ARW8KM
GUIDANCE AND NAM SUGGEST SOME LGT PRECIP MAY DEVELOP WITH THIS
SYSTEM...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH TO THE COVERAGE AT THIS TIME. HAVE
OPTED TO HOLD ONTO THE DRY FORECAST...BUT MAY NEED TO ADJUST POPS
SLIGHTLY TO REFLECT A FEW SPRINKLES/LGT RAIN SHOWERS. THEN BY EARLY
SAT MORNING ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW BUILDS INTO THE REGION AND DRIES THE
ATMOSPHERE OUT. SFC RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THRU SUN...THEN THE
MID-LVL RIDGE OVERHEAD FLATTENS AND THE FLOW BECOMES QUASI-ZONAL FOR
LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPS FRI-SUN WILL BE SLOWLY MODERATING...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO
PERHAPS A FEW LOW 70S FRI/SAT. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE
ACROSS THE REGION SUN AND COULD BRING TEMPS BACK INTO THE UPR
50S/LOW 60S.
MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...
ENSEMBLES ARE SHOWING THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH PUSHING EAST BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK...HELPING TO SETUP THE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODIC CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MON/TUE TIMEFRAME.
TEMPS MON SHUD REBOUND WITH A SOUTHWEST FLOW AND PUSH INTO THE UPR
60S/LOW 70S. THEN INCREASED CLOUD COVER TUE/WED WILL KEEP TEMPS IN
THE UPR 50S TO LOW 60S.
BEACHLER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...
* SW WINDS GUSTING TO ARND 17KT THIS AFTN.
* SCATTERED -SHRA THIS EVENING.
* MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AFTER THE SHOWERS...IFR PSBL.
JEE
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WITH A LINE OF
SHOWERS EXTENDING INTO NORTHWEST IL. THE BAND OF SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE EAST AND EXPECTING IT TO REMAIN RAGGED WITH HIT OR MISS
SHOWERS. RFD HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING AN ORGANIZED SHOWER
THIS AFTN. THE EASTERN TERMINALS WILL MOST LIKELY SEE SCATTERED
SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE THIS EVENING.
UPSTREAM OBS INDICATE THAT CIGS WILL FALL TO MVFR OR LOWER BEHIND
THE SHOWERS. HAVE THE MOST CONFIDENCE IN THE RFD TAF WITH IFR
CIGS. HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN FOG AT RFD AND MEDIUM IN 1/4SM.
CLOUDS SHOULD LAST LONGER OVER THE EASTERN TERMINALS SO KEPT CIGS
IN THE MVFR RANGE WITH FOG ONLY AT DPA. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO
VFR QUICKLY TOMORROW AS THE CLOUDS SHIFT EAST. LIGHT WINDS
OVERNIGHT BECOME SW BTWN 5 AND 8 KT.
JEE
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE AND OCCURRENCE OF -SHRA...MEDIUM-
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS AND TIMING...LOW CONFIDENCE IN
HOW LOW THE CIGS WILL BE.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS.
JEE
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
* FRIDAY NIGHT...DRY. MVFR/FOG POSSIBLE.
* SATURDAY...DRY/VFR. GUSTY WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS.
* SUNDAY...DRY/VFR. WEST WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST.
* MONDAY...DRY/VFR. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS.
* TUESDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA. STRONG/GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS.
* WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA. WEST WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...
244 PM CDT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
EAST ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES RESULTING IN GENERALLY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE LAKE. THIS LOW WILL MOVE OVER JAMES BAY
SATURDAY DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN AND TURNING
WINDS TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST. THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT IS SLOW
TO TRICKLE IN AND THE AIRMASS IS SHALLOW...SO WHILE THERE ARE
GALES JUST OFF THE DECK...IT DOESNT APPEAR THAT THEY WOULD MIX
DOWN TO THE LAKE SURFACE AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL PEAK
OCCASIONALLY TO 30 KT SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN SHOULD
TREND DOWN THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK
OVER THE REGION. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO LIFT
ACROSS THE REGION AROUND MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK AND WILL ONCE AGAIN
BRING MODERATE WINDS TO LAKE MICHIGAN.
BMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1255 PM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1042 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014
Morning surface analysis shows weak frontal boundary across the
Plains, accompanied by a band of clouds and light showers from
Missouri northeastward into western Wisconsin. Airmass ahead of
this system is very dry, as shown by the 12z KILX upper air
sounding. As a result, precip will have a difficult time
spreading/developing eastward. Latest radar trends continue to
show a decrease in precip areal coverage across northern/central
Missouri, so have updated PoPs to slow the eastward progression of
the rain chances. Will continue to carry just slight chance PoPs
west of I-57 this afternoon. Further east, precip will hold off
until evening. Rainfall amounts will be quite light, only
amounting to a couple hundredths of an inch at best.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014
Main concern for today revolves around how much (if any) rainfall is
expected, as well as how soon it will arrive. Line of showers
upstream along a decaying cold front currently extends from the
upper Midwest into the central Plains. The front and driving upper
wave have not been making very quick progress to the east due to the
blocking upper low along the east coast and the weakening ridge
overhead it is trying to push into. This scenario should continue to
slow the arrival of the upstream front, as well as support its
continued weakening. With this thinking in mind, supported by a
strong consensus of the models, have removed all PoPs from this
morning, and limited them to slight chance for the afternoon across
northern 1/2 of forecast area (southern 1/2 of forecast area stays
dry). The slower arrival of the clouds and minimal precipitation
threat with this system should also allow temperatures to warm a bit
more than previously expected, with most locations able to make it
into the 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014
Shower threat to diminish quickly this evening as the wave passes,
as forecast soundings near Champaign only show a moist layer about
2000 feet thick and quickly eroding from the top down. However,
clouds will be slower to exit as a weak wave moves in behind the
initial one.
Dry frontal passage expected Friday night, as what little
precipitation is shown by the models stays to our north. The cooler
air lags behind this front some distance, so highs 70-75 are still
anticipated for Saturday. While Sunday briefly cools off with the
arrival of a fast moving high, the warming trend kicks in again
early next week.
Main focus for rain in the longer term remains with a broad trough
that will be emerging from the Rockies Monday evening. Latest ECMWF
run is coming more in line with the GFS solution, with better
phasing of this trough in the northern/southern streams. However,
the GFS is a tad faster, spreading rain in most areas late Monday
night while the ECMWF is more during the day Tuesday. Both models
quickly end the rain from northwest to southeast Tuesday night.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014
Mid/high clouds continue to spread eastward across central
Illinois early this afternoon, while MVFR ceilings remain further
west along/behind a trough axis extending from eastern Iowa into
northern Missouri. As this feature moves slowly eastward, clouds
will lower later this afternoon into the evening and a few light
showers will be possible. HRRR guidance suggests low clouds will
stay west of the central Illinois terminals until this evening,
with MVFR ceilings arriving at KPIA by 01z then further east to
KCMI by 08z. Based on 12z NAM forecast soundings and latest HRRR,
think clearing late tonight into Friday morning will be much
slower than previously expected. While skies may temporarily clear
along/west of the Illinois late tonight, light winds/ample low-level
moisture will lead to fog and low cloud re-development. End result
will be overcast conditions until mid-morning Friday at the earliest.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Barnes
SHORT TERM...Bak
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Barnes
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
1200 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014
MAIN CONCERN REMAINS THE ARRIVAL OF THE RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A
PRONOUNCED RIBBON OF THETAE ADVECTION WITH A RETREATING WARM
FRONT NOW ENTERING NORTHEAST IOWA. RIDGE ALOFT IS WEAKENING THE
BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISO THUNDER MOVING EAST ACROSS THE AREA WHILE
ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS IS DEVELOPING WEST OF THE FIRST LINE AND
MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARD CENTRAL/NORTHERN IOWA AT 07Z. FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT...THUNDER WILL GRAD DIMINISH AND SOME
PATCHY FOG WILL FORM WEST WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING OVER THE AREA
GENERALLY EAST OF I35 AFTER 12Z AND EXITING THE AREA ABOUT 18Z
TODAY. BOTH THE HRRR AND THE NMM ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE
MAIN AREA OF RAIN OVER THE EAST AFT 12Z AND EXITING EAST BY MIDDAY
AND CURRENT TRENDS SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO. AS CLOUDS DEPART... MILD
AIR BEHIND THE BOUNDARY SHOULD WARM QUICKLY WITH HIGHS REACHING
THE LOWER 70S WEST TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S EAST. BUFR SOUNDINGS
INDICATE SOME CU EARLY ON IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT MAINLY SUNNY BY
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014
THE MAIN ISSUE OF THE EXTENDED WAS WITH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND...AND WITH PRECIP CHANCES LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER ECMWF/GFS/SREF FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...THEN CLOSER TO THE ECMWF SUNDAY THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK.
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...NICE WARM DAY ANTICIPATED FOR FRIDAY WITH
GOOD WAA AHEAD OF NEXT WEAK SHORTWAVE SET TO MOVE ACROSS THE
STATE DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS LOOKS TO MAINLY BRING A WESTERLY
WIND SHIFT LATE IN THE DAY. TWEAKED MAX TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO
WITH GOOD MIXING AND SOUTHWEST FLOW. 850MB TEMPS RISE INTO THE
+14C TO +18C RANGE BY 18Z FRIDAY. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH SOME WEAK CAA...BUT STILL LOOKS TO BE ABOVE
NORMAL FOR MAX TEMPERATURES.
THE 850MB RIDGE MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING
ALLOWING FOR SOME STRONG RETURN FLOW INTO THE STATE. THE CAVEAT IS
CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH SOME DECENT THETA-E ADVECTION MOVING
ACROSS THE STATE. THIS SHOULD HELP BALANCE OUT THE WAA...AND ONLY
WENT SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN GUIDANCE IN THE SOUTHWEST FOR HIGHS
SUNDAY. THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE SHOW SOME BROAD ISENTROPIC LIFT BY
THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING SUNDAY AND MAY SPAWN SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN THE
WARM SECTOR MONDAY AND REMAINS CAPPED OFF. THUS...WENT COMPLETELY
DRY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY
MONDAY. THE COLD FRONT AND TROUGH MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH THE ECMWF A BIT STRONGER AND DEEPER WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHILE THE GFS IS STRONGER WITH THE SURFACE
LOW. REGARDLESS...MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR NEXT SIGNIFICANT PRECIP. MUCH COLDER TUESDAY AND
EVEN INTO THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH THE REGION REMAINING IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
&&
.AVIATION...23/18Z
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014
IFR/MVFR CIGS BEGINNING TO BREAK UP AND CLEAR OUT OF THE
AREA...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST
TO NORTHWEST BRIEFLY THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE SHIFTING BACK TO THE
SOUTH TONIGHT.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...PODRAZIK
AVIATION...BEERENDS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1135 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 642 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014
DENSE FOG CONTINUES TO MAKE SLOW PROGRESS TOWARD THE WEST AND IS
NOW FURTHER WEST THAN ANY MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING.
SO EXPANDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY ONE ROW OF COUNTIES FURTHER
WEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014
TODAY-TONIGHT...UPPER HIGH CURRENTLY CENTERED JUST SOUTHWEST OF
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AREA WILL EXPAND AND
STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO BY 12Z FRIDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S.
AS FOR THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY...WILL EXTEND IT A FEW MORE HOURS TIL
16Z AS THE RUC IS HOLDING ONTO IT A BIT LONGER THEN PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED.
FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...UPPER HIGH AND RIDGE SLIDE SLOWLY INTO
WEST/SOUTHWEST TEXAS BY 12Z SATURDAY. SOME CIRRUS EXPECTED FRIDAY
MORNING BEFORE EXITING EAST AND OUT OF THE AREA BY THE END OF THE
DAY. CLEAR SKY EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN
THE MID 80S...EXCEPTION ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF FAR EASTERN
COLORADO WHERE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S EXPECTED. LOWS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S.
RECORD/NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE FOR A FEW
LOCATIONS...SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.
SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...UPPER HIGH SLIDES SOUTHEAST INTO
SOUTHERN TEXAS BY 12Z SUNDAY AS UPPER FLOW SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHWEST
AS LARGE PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM MOVES ASHORE. CLOUDINESS WILL BE
CONFINED TO POSSIBLY A FEW AFTERNOON CUMULUS CLOUDS...OTHERWISE
CLEAR. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE COOLER AS SFC WINDS
TURN TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST WITH 75 TO 80 ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
INTERSTATE...LOW 80S TO THE SOUTH. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S
TO AROUND 50.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1249 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014
MAIN CONCERNS ARE THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES AT
THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. STILL A LOT OF SPREAD BETWEEN THE
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE OUTPUT WITH SIMILAR TRENDS FROM
YESTERDAY. THE NEW ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE SLOWEST AND MOST
AMPLIFIED WITH UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING AND MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION IN THE SUNDAY TO MONDAY NIGHT PERIOD. THE CANADIAN IS THE
FASTEST WITH THE GFS IN THE MIDDLE.
WITH THE SLOWER ARRIVAL AND DRIER AIR MASS IN PLACE...SUNDAY NIGHT
IS LOOKING DRY AND LIKE WHAT THE CRH_INIT GAVE ME. BULK OF THE
TROUGH/ASSOCIATED LIFT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.
MODELS DIFFER ON PLACEMENT OF THE JET LIFT BUT THEY EITHER HAVE A
RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OR LEFT FRONT QUADRANT MOVING THROUGH DURING
THE DAY. EVEN THOUGH THE MODELS VARY IN THE SPEED THEY ARE MOVING
THE SYSTEM THROUGH...THEY IN GENERAL ARE A LITTLE SLOWER.
AS A RESULT OF THAT AND THE LIFT BEING STRONGER...RAINFALL LOOKS
LIKE IT LASTS INTO AT LEAST THE EVENING. SO LIKE THE LINGERING
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THE INIT GAVE ME AND WILL KEEP. BIG DIFFERENCES
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD AND BECAUSE OF THAT AND
GENERAL PATTERN SUPPORTING DRY CONDITIONS...KEPT THE DRY POPS THE
INIT GAVE ME.
SECONDARY PROBLEM WILL BE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY
FOLLOWED BY THE LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS. SAME
GENERAL PATTERN IN PLACE FOR SUNDAY WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
HOWEVER...MODEL OUTPUT IS NOW MORE CONSISTENT IN BACKING SOME KIND
OF BOUNDARY INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND THEN
LIFTING IT OUT SUNDAY. HOWEVER IT DOES LOOK LIKE THAT FRONT STAYS
OVER A PORTION OF THE AREA SO A BIG GRADIENT IN TEMPERATURE COULD
OCCUR THIS DAY AND THE FORECAST PROBLEMATIC. SO DECIDED TO NOT
TOUCH THOSE MAXES.
MODELS IN MORE AGREEMENT ON THE COOLER MAXES FOR MONDAY WITH THE
GFS/ECMWF IN BETTER WITH THE CANADIAN MUCH COLDER. FORECAST MAXES
LOOK REASONABLE BUT IT IS DEFINITELY POSSIBLE THAT MAXES COULD BE
EVEN COLDER THAN WHAT WILL BE IN THERE. FOR MONDAY NIGHT...SLOWER
DEPARTURE OF THE SYSTEM WILL KEEP CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE NIGHT AT THE VERY LEAST. DEFINITELY COULD SEE FROST WITH
THE NORTHWEST PORTION HAVE THE BEST SHOT FOR THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE JUST AS COLD OR COLDER
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WILL ALSO HAVE TO BE WATCHED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1127 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT GLD AND MCK.
CLEAR SKIES WITH JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS /15-20KFT AGL/ THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE
LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS. AT THIS POINT
FOG/STRATUS IS NOT EXPECTED TOMORROW MORNING...BUT GIVEN
PERSISTENCEOF DENSE FOG THIS MORNING AND LITTLE CHANGE IN
OVERALL AIRMASS FROM THIS MORNING TO TOMORROW MORNING ANOTHER
FOG/STRATUS EVENT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. HOWEVER HAVE LEANED
AGAINST INCLUDING ANY FOG/STRATUS IN THE FORECAST DUE TO LITTLE
SUPPORTING GUIDANCE AND THINKING THAT THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS
TODAY SHOULD ADVECT SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA...ENOUGH TO
PREVENT FOG/STRATUS FROM DEVELOPING.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE IN JEOPARDY OF BEING TIED OR BROKEN
AT THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS FRIDAY OCTOBER 24:
BURLINGTON....84 IN 1952
COLBY.........87 IN 2003
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR KSZ003-004-
014>016-028-029-042.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...JJM
CLIMATE...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
610 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
TO NOVA SCOTIA THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN...HEAVY AT
TIMES ACROSS ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE
REGION. THIS LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
540 PM UPDATE: FCST 6 HRLY QPF FOR TNGT THRU FRI WAS RE-DONE WITH
POPS BASED ON THIS QPF DISTRIBUTION RE-CALCULATED...RESULTING IN
AREAS WE XPCT SIG RNFL (WHICH IS THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE FA)
HAVING 100 PERCENT POPS FCST THRU THESE PTNS OF THESE PDS. WE ALSO
INTRODUCED ISOLD THUNDER TO DOWNEAST AREAS INTO THIS EVE BASED ON
SAT IMAGERY AND LGTNG DETECTION SHOWING SPORADIC LGTNG STRIKES MOVG
TOWARD DOWNEAST ME FROM THE GULF OF ME. WHATS LEFT OF ELEVATED
CAPE SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATE TNGT...BUT WE WILL MONITOR THIS IN
CASE WE NEED TO XTND THIS MENTION LATER INTO THE NGT. THE LATEST
RUN OF THE HRRR MODEL OUTPUT SHOWS THE POTENTIAL OF FAIRLY INTENSE
RN BANDING MOVG NW FROM THE BAY OF FUNDY LATER THIS EVE...THEN
SLOWLY MOVG NWRD INTO CNTRL AND SRN PTNS OF NE ME LATER OVRNGT.
SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS DIFFER AS TO HOW MUCH INTENSITY WILL BE LEFT
TO THIS BAND BY ERLY FRI MORN...WITH THE 12Z ECMWF AND SPCLY 12
AND 18Z GFS DTMNSTC MODEL RUNS MUCH HEAVIER WITH QPF THEN
CORRESPONDING NAM...SREF AND EVEN TWICE THE GFS ENSM QPF OVRNGT
INTO FRI. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES AND SPREAD OF THESE SOLUTIONS...
WE TRIED TO TAKE A MIDDLE GROUND BETWEEN THESE TWO CAMPS OF MODEL
QPF SOLUTIONS FOR NOW. OTHERWISE...WE UPDATED FCST HRLY TEMPS
THRU THE OVRNGT TO UN- MODIFIED FCST LOWS FOR ERLY FRI MORN BASED
ON TRENDS SEEN FROM 5 PM OBSVD TEMPS FROM THE PREV FCST OF HRLY
TEMPS AT THIS HR.
ORGNL DISC: A LOW SLOWLY TRACKING ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE WILL
INFLUENCE THE WEATHER FOR THE AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE SATELLITE...AND MODEL DATA SUPPORT A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW
THAT IS BECOMING COLD CORE. AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THE
GFS/NAM/GEM/ECMWF ALL PLACE THE LOW JUST SE OF CAPE COD...WITH THE
OCCLUDED FRONT WRAPPED AROUND THE CENTER EXTENDING NORTH INTO
CENTRAL MAINE. ALL MEMBER CONTINUE TO SHOW THE HEAVIEST QPF
FALLING ACROSS THE DOWNEAST COAST...AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST. BY
TOMORROW MORNING THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT.
TAKING THE LOW ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE...EAST OF CAPE COD...SOUTH
OF EASTPORT. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE LOW TRACK EAST TO A
POSITION SOUTHEAST OF YARMOUTH ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA. THE REMNANTS OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT REMAIN OVER NRN
MAINE...CLEARING BEGINS ACROSS SW AND WRN MAINE.
LOADED A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF/GEM/NAM THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR
MAX/MIN TEMPS...HRLY T/DP/WND/SKY/POP. LOADED 80 PERCENT HPCQPF...ADDED
15 PERCENT TO WNDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT OVER WATER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOOK FOR RAIN TO FINALLY TAPER OFF FRIDAY EVENING AS THE SYSTEM
KICKS OUT TO THE EAST. A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER INTO SATURDAY
MORNING MAINLY OVER FAR NORTHEAST MAINE. DRY DAY IN STORE FOR
SATURDAY. HOWEVER, ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BE HOT ON ITS HEELS. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE FAIRLY MINOR, WITH SHOWERS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND TAPERING OFF SUNDAY EVENING. EXPECT LESS
THAN A HALF INCH OF RAIN WITH THE SYSTEM, WITH THE HIGHER TOTALS
LIKELY BEING OVER NORTHERN MAINE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SEASONABLY COOL AND DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY, THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN MONDAY NIGHT. THEN WARMER
TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. NEXT SYSTEM POISED TO IMPACT US
LATE WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A FAST HITTING COLD FRONT
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. A QUICK PERIOD OF SHOWERS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY COOLER, DRIER WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MODELS ARE
IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR PREVAILING CONDITIONS ACROSS MAINE THROUGH TONIGHT. SLOW
IMPROVEMENTS LATE IN THE PERIOD FOR BGR AND BHB.
SHORT TERM: LINGERING MVFR FRIDAY NIGHT PRIMARILY FAR EASTERN
MAINE. VFR EVERYWHERE BY MIDDAY SATURDAY, THEN MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING MAINLY FOR NORTHERN MAINE
AS A WEAK SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: GALE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 1 AM. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
SUBSIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT. AN SCA WILL BE REQUIRED AFTER 1 AM.
SHORT TERM: NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS FRIDAY EVENING WILL
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. WEST WINDS THEN INCREASE BACK UP TO NEAR
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS OF 25 KNOTS SUNDAY. SEAS WILL BE 3 TO 5 FEET FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE BEEN REPORTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
DOWNEAST AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST MAINE. AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 1.5
INCHES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO FALL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AT
THIS TIME THERE HAVE BEEN NO REPORTS OF ANY FLOODING ISSUES ACROSS
THE AFFECTED AREA. THIS COMBINED WITH THE AMOUNT AND DURATION OF
THE ADDITIONAL PRECIP THE FLOOD WATCH WAS CANCELLED.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...FOISY
AVIATION...VJN/FOISY
MARINE...VJN/FOISY
HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
121 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014
THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY QUIET BY OCTOBER STANDARDS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER TODAY
WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE. TONIGHT A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL PROVIDE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.
SKIES WILL TURN PARTLY SUNNY ON FRIDAY WITH A COLD FRONT SET TO MOVE
THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. AT THIS POINT IT
LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH DRY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES THE REST OF THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 50S TO
AROUND 60.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1019 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014
WE HAVE ALLOWED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO COME TO AN END ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA. THERE ARE A FEW OBSERVATIONS AT THE AIRPORTS
STILL INDICATING VSBYS AROUND 1/4SM...HOWEVER CONDITIONS ARE
GENERALLY IMPROVING QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA. AN EXAMPLE IS KGRR
STILL REPORTING 3/4SM AT 1416Z...HOWEVER CONDITIONS AROUND MOST OF THE
AIRPORT HAVE IMPROVED MUCH MORE AT THE SAME TIME.
WE WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FCST FOR THE DAY TODAY. MOST OF THE LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS COMING IN
AFTER 00Z ACROSS THE LAKESHORE. WITH THE CURRENT MOVEMENT OF THE
RAIN SHOWERS IN WI MOVING MORE NORTH THAN EAST...IT WILL TAKE A
WHILE FOR PCPN TO MAKE IT TO THE AREA. ALSO...A DRY ATMOSPHERE IN
PLACE WILL ERODE THE PCPN AS IT TRIES TO MOVE TOWARD THE AREA..
UPDATE ISSUED AT 544 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014
HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
THROUGH 1000 AM. FOG HAS EXPANDED QUITE A BIT IN THE LAST HALF
HOUR WITH STRATUS BEGINNING TO SHOW UP IN THE FOG SATELLITE
PRODUCT WHICH IS INDICATIVE OF A MORE WIDESPREAD FOG. HAVE QUARTER
MILE VISIBILITIES IN ALL AREAS NOW AND IT WILL LIKELY EXPAND TO
AREAS NOT CURRENTLY SEEING IT. A LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW IS IN PLACE
IN THE LOWEST 50MB/S PER THE RUC13 AND THIS SHOULD ADVECT IT EVEN
TO THE LAKESHORE AREAS WITH TIME. WE STILL HAVE ABOUT 2.5 HOURS
BEFORE SUNRISE...SO IT SHOULD EXPAND AND BECOME MORE DENSE. NPWGRR
IS ALREADY OUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014
LIMITED CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM BUT THE FOCUS WAS ON EXTENT OF
FOG THIS MORNING...CHANCE FOR RAIN TONIGHT AND SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN
CHANCES SATURDAY MORNING.
AS FOR THE FOG...THINK WE ARE LOOKING AT PATCHY RADIATIONAL GROUND
FOG THIS MORNING. SEVERAL SITES ARE CURRENTLY AT A QUARTER OF A MILE
VISIBILITY SO WE WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON WHETHER OR NOT IT EXPANDS
AND BECOMES WORTHY OF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY. FOG SATELLITE PRODUCT IS
BEGINNING TO SHOW HINTS AT STRATUS FORMING.
REGARDING RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT...IT LOOKS ABOUT THE SAME AS THE LAST
FEW NIGHTS...30/40 PCT CHANCE ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST DURING THE
EVENING. A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY SEEN IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER
THE DAKOTAS MOVES THROUGH OUT REGION TONIGHT. SOME WEAK MOISTURE
TRANSPORT OCCURS AT 850MB/S ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH. FEEL
THE BEST CHANCES WILL OCCUR EARLY ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY
131...BECOMING ISOLATED OVERNIGHT AND ENDING.
ANOTHER BRIEF SHOT AT SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN MAY COME LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT TRAVERSES THE AREA. THE
MAIN UPPER SUPPORT WITH THIS FRONT IS WELL NORTH OF SOUTHWEST
LOWER...BUT THERE IS A PUSH OF SOME MOISTURE INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTH. THE ECMWF IS PAINTING SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIP ALONG THE LAKE
MICHIGAN SHORE SATURDAY MORNING. KEPT THE FORECAST DRY AT THIS POINT
AS NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH WE WILL SEE ANYTHING.
OTHERWISE...QUIET TODAY OUTSIDE OF SOME MORNING FOG. WE SHOULD
BECOME AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE
PEELS OFF TO THE EAST.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014
THE UPPER LOW MOVES TO EASTERN CANADA TO START THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
THIS WILL ALLOW UPPER AND SURFACE RIDGING TO BUILD OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THE CHILLY TEMPS WILL MOVE OUT OF THE REGION AS THIS
OCCURS WITH SOLID WARM ADVECTION BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE LATTER PART
OF THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY...BUT WE SHOULD SEE WARM
ADVECTION CLOUDS ARRIVE ON THE HEELS OF THIS WARMUP SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOULD MOVE IN MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT. THE
VIGOROUS SYSTEM THAT WAS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR THIS MORNING OFF THE
BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST SHOULD MOVE OVER THE ROCKIES AND HELP PUMP
WARM AND MOIST GULF AIR INTO THE REGION. THERE IS POOR AGREEMENT IN
THE MODELS ON THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM INTO MID WEEK BUT IT APPEARS
A COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT. SO THE RAIN
CHANCES SHOULD PEAK IN THIS TIME FRAME. ADDED THUNDER TO THE
FORECAST FOR TUESDAY GIVEN THE HIGHER TEMPS/DEWPOINTS EXPECTED WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT. IT SHOULD TURN COLDER AGAIN ONCE THE
FRONT PASSES WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 50S BY WED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 121 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014
THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS HAVE FINALLY MIXED OUT AND ALL TAF SITES
ARE VFR. I EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL INTO THE LATE NIGHT
HOURS. AFTER MIDNIGHT A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY COMES THROUGH
SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN AND BRINGS IN AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS AND REDUCED
VISIBILITIES WITH IT. WHILE THERE IS CURRENTLY A RAIN AREA WITH
THIS SYSTEM... I AM THINKING THE RAIN AREA WILL LARGELY DISSIPATE
BEFORE REACHING THE SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN TAF SITES. I DID PUT VCSH
AT MKG SINCE IT WOULD SEEM THAT WOULD BE THE MOSTLY LIKELY
LOCATION TO SEE ANY PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SYSTEM. ONCE THE LOW
CLOUDS MOVE IN THEY WILL BE SLOW TO LEAVE SO I ALLOWED THE LOW
CEILING AND VISIBILITIES TO PERSIST THROUGH 18Z TOMORROW.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014
NO MARINE CONCERNS TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING
EAST ALLOWING FOR LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW TO TAKE HOLD. THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR WINDS AND WAVES BECOMING AN ISSUE WILL BE FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION. SATURDAY
ESPECIALLY...20-30 KNOT NORTHWEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED WHICH WILL
BOOST WAVE HEIGHTS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014
STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY HYDRO ISSUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. VERY
LIMITED RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. THE FIRST CHANCE FOR RAIN
WILL BE TONIGHT...BUT NOT EXPECTED TOTALS MORE THAN 0.05 ANYWHERE.
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RIVER LEVELS
REMAIN LOW AT THE PRESENT TIME.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...NJJ
SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...DUKE
MARINE...DUKE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1212 PM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 402 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014
Early morning satellite and radar imagery show a notable trough
crossing the Plains of Canada and the United States while an
associated weak surface front which has yet to make it into our
forecast area. Pre-frontal lift has shifted into eastern Kansas and
northwest Missouri overnight bringing a progressive line of showers
to the region. Short range hi-res models like the HRRR and RUC point
at the current round of showers progressing slowly east this morning
along with the trough, but with the better upper level kinematics of
the trough shifting to our northeast, and weak to non-existent
surface convergence with the front, there wont be much to keep
storms going through the day. As a result, expect early morning
stormy activity to persist past sunrise but that it will likely fade
away during the afternoon hours. Only concern for the afternoon
hours is if the low clouds hold strong, providing an environment for
drizzle. Current model soundings do not look to support drizzle, so
have left it out for now. Otherwise, temperatures behind this system
are not particularly cool as highs in the 60s and 70s still look
possible across the region today.
After the trough moves through today a broad ridge will quickly move
in and dominate the weather for Friday and through the weekend. This
will result in a rebound in temperatures with our already above
normal readings continuing their run through the weekend. In fact,
expect some areas across the Missouri-Kansas border region may see
afternoon highs top out around 80 degrees over the weekend.
Next chance at stormy weather will arrive early next week, Monday
into Tuesday as a trough swings out of the mountainous west through
the Plains. Current model solutions advertise another round of
storms moving through Monday night through Tuesday. Also, with the
returning storms will come some more seasonally normal temperatures
as our highs in the 70s will retreat back into the 60s. However,
overnight low look to only range as low as the 40s, so it looks like
any frost or freeze issue might be at least another week away.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1201 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014
Cloud cover will remain in place throughout the forecast period with
a break or two expected Thursday evening. Expecting MVFR conditions
to continue with gradual improvement behind the cold front as it
slides eastward. Favorable conditions will present a chance of minor fog
development for all terminals overnight.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...Welsh
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1132 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014
H5 ANALYSIS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS A FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN
ACROSS CANADA AND THE CONUS. CLOSED LOW PRESSURE WAS NOTED OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH A SECOND LOW OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA.
IN BETWEEN...LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER SRN MANITOBA WITH A
TROUGH EXTENDING SWD INTO THE DAKOTAS AND NEBRASKA. SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO LIFT EAST AND WERE IMPACTING FAR SOUTHEASTERN
NEBRASKA AS OF 3 AM CDT. BEHIND THIS AREA OF EXITING
PRECIPITATION...AREAS OF FOG HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWESTERN...CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. VISBYS WERE GENERALLY UNDER ONE MILE WITH QUARTER MILE
VISBYS REPORTED AT NORTH PLATTE AND ORD. VISBYS HAVE BEEN
FLUCTUATING AROUND 1/2SM AT ONEILL AND BROKEN BOW. BASED ON ROAD
CAMS AND SFC VISBYS...DECIDED TO HOIST A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR
THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING...FOR LOCATIONS
ROUGHLY EAST OF A LINE FROM MAYWOOD...TO NORTH PLATTE...TO
ONEILL. TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 AM CDT...RANGED FROM 36 AT OGALLALA
TO 44 AT NORTH PLATTE.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014
FOG IS FINALLY LIFTING...WITH VIS SAT...SFC OBS AND WEB CAMERAS
SHOWING IMPROVING VISIBILITIES/CONDITIONS. THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY
HAS EXPIRED FOR ALL AND SHOULD ONLY SEE AN INCREASE OF SOME HIGH
CLOUDS SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL HELP
PUSH TEMPS INTO THE 70S FOR THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS
TEMPERATURES. FOR THIS MORNING...BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR AND NAM
SOLNS...FOG SHOULD BURN OFF FROM WEST TO EAST BY LATE MORNING.
DENSE FOG SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT BY MID MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE
THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 10 AM CDT. FOR THE REMAINDER OF
TODAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE DAKOTAS AND
NEBRASKA...WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL
ALLOW LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING TO BUILD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND
NORTHERN NEBRASKA TODAY. SPREAD BETWEEN THE MET AND MAV HIGHS FOR
THIS AFTERNOON IS FAIRLY MINIMAL...WITH THE MAV RUNNING 3 TO 10
DEGREES WARMER COMPARED TO THE MET GUIDANCE. FOR THE
FCST...TRENDED HIGHS TOWARD THE COOLER MET GUIDANCE. THIS IS DUE
TO FOG AND EXPECTED CLOUDINESS...ESPECIALLY IN THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CWA THIS MORNING. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 60S IN THE EAST...TO THE UPPER 70S IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST.
FOR TONIGHT...ZONAL FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS...WHILE AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT AS THE TROUGH TRACKS EAST...EFFECTIVELY ENDING ANY
THREAT IN THE CWA FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG TONIGHT. CLEAR SKIES
AND WESTERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW LOWS TO DROP INTO THE 40S
TONIGHT...WITH THE COOLEST READINGS IN THE WEST WHERE DRIER AIR
EXISTS. LIKE HIGHS TODAY...THE MAV GUIDANCE IS WARMER ON THE LOWS
TONIGHT COMPARED TO THE MET GUIDANCE. BASED ON THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS...THE GUIDANCE LOWS HAVE BEEN TOO WARM COMPARED ACTUALITY.
WITH THIS IN MIND AND GIVEN THE DRY CONDS IN PLACE...OPTED FOR
THE COOLER MET GUIDANCE LOWS FOR TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE UNITED STATES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FRIDAY
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A VERY WARM DAY...AS A SURFACE TROUGH
MAKES ITS WAY EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE MORNING. A
FAVORABLE WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WIND BEHIND THE FRONT WILL HELP TO
ENHANCE THE WARMING...AS WARM AIR ALOFT /H850MB TEMPS OF 20 TO
23C/ IS EASILY MIXED TO THE SURFACE. HIGHS APPEAR THEY WILL AT
LEAST TOP OUT IN THE MID 70S...WITH PERHAPS LOWER 80S ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING JUST A BIT OF
COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT HIGHS OF 70 TO 75
DEGREES STILL ARE EXPECTED BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
A CHANGE TO MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK. A LONG
WAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS EAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...WITH AN ASSOCIATED VIGOROUS PACIFIC COLD FRONT
USHERING IN COOLER AIR...AND LOWERING HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE
MID 50S AND LOWER 60S. MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WILL PROGRESS EAST
TO WEST ACROSS THE AREA AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA.
MOISTURE/HUMIDITY IN BOTH THE LOWER AND MID/UPPER LEVELS DOESN/T
LOOK THAT GREAT...SO DESPITE DECENT LIFT AS THE FGEN BAND CROSSES
THE AREA...THE LACK OF MOISTURE WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION...AND
WILL ONLY INCREASE POPS A BIT INTO THE LOW CHANCE CATEGORY AT
THIS TIME.
MODELS DIFFER BEYOND TUESDAY...WITH THE GFS BECOMING MORE
AMPLIFIED AND ALLOWS COLDER CANADIAN AIR TO SPILL SOUTH INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF BUILDS ANOTHER LARGE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH A WARMING TREND. THE
ENSEMBLE MEAN SEEMS TO BE SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN...SO AT THIS POINT
A NEAR CLIMATOLOGY FORECAST SEEMS MOST REASONABLE BEYOND TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GOOD MIXING TODAY
ALONG WITH A WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND TONIGHT SHOULD KEEP
FOG FROM DEVELOPING TONIGHT AS MOISTURE WILL NOT GET TRAPPED IN
THE BL. ALL MOS GUIDANCE AND MODELS SUPPORT ONLY SOME PASSING
HIGH CLOUDS.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MASEK
SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...CLB
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...MASEK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
336 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL BRING
PERIODS OF RAIN AND SHOWERS TO THE REGION TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FROM THE ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD. SHOWERS TAPER
OFF ON FRIDAY...BUT RETURN BY LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH THE PASSAGE OF ADDITIONAL ENERGY. DRIER AND MILDER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 136 PM EDT THURSDAY...FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON FORECAST
REFRESH, DID A FEW MINOR TWEAKS BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. FIRST ON
THE PRECIPITATION FRONT, RADAR SHOWING A PRETTY SOLID AREA OF RAIN
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF VERMONT, AND LOOKING UPSTREAM
IT APPEARS THIS RAIN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
IF NOT MUCH OF THE EVENING. DID FOLLOW THE HRRR MODEL GUIDANCE
WHICH SUGGESTS THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING, WITH A
BRIEF LULL LATE EVENING, BEFORE ANOTHER SOLID BATCH OF RAIN COMES
IN JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. STILL HASN`T BEEN MUCH OUT TOWARD THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY, AND STILL QUESTIONABLE HOW MUCH OF THE RAIN WILL
ACTUALLY GET THERE WITH DRIER LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW IN PLACE.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE NEXT 6 HOURS SHOULD EASILY AVERAGE 1/4"
ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT, IF NOT A BIT MORE. SOME MESONET IN THE
HEAVIER RAIN HAVE REPORTED UP TO 1/3" IN AN HOUR. STILL, TOTALS
WON`T BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO PROBLEMS.
MADE SOME TWEAKS ALSO TO TEMPERATURES BASED ON CURRENT
TEMPERATURES (WHICH SHOULD BE PRETTY MUCH IT FOR HIGHS). FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA IT WILL BE A GREAT DAY TO STAY INDOORS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT THURSDAY...BY TONIGHT TODAY`S SLUG OF MOISTURE
GRADUALLY LOSES ITS IMPETUS AS PARENT UPPER DYNAMICS PULL STEADILY
ENE AND AWAY FROM THE REGION. STILL LOOKING AT DAMP/WET CONDS FROM
THE ERN SLOPES OF THE DACKS EAST INTO VT...BUT PCPN CHARACTER
SHOULD TREND LIGHTER AND LESSEN IN OVERALL COVERAGE AS THE NIGHT
WEARS ON. OUTSIDE SOME EVENING SHOWERS...SLV SHOULD TREND MAINLY
DRY FROM MIDNIGHT ONWARD. LOWS SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING...UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S UNDER CONTINUED CLOUDY/NORTHERLY FLOW AND NEUTRAL
ADVECTIVE REGIME.
BY FRIDAY...SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION. HIGHEST COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS NC/NE VT WHERE SOME ADDL LIGHT TOTALS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. TRENDING MAINLY DRY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WESTWARD.
WITH LINGERING CLOUDS AND CONTINUED NORTHERLY FLOW DID OPT TO LEAN
ON THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE IN REGARD TO TEMPS...HOLDING MAX
VALUES IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN MOST SPOTS...PERHAPS MID 50S
IN THE SLV WHERE SOME AFTERNOON PARTIAL SUN WILL BE POSSIBLE.
AFOREMENTIONED WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS PESKY CLOUDS SLOWLY THIN OVER TIME. LINGERING
SHOWERS END NORTHEAST WITH LOW TEMPS A TAD COOLER...MID 30S TO LOWER
40S.
ON SATURDAY MODELS REMAIN IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT SUGGESTING
ADDITIONAL AND RATHER ROBUST NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DROP
QUICKLY SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH A
RENEWED THREAT OF SHOWERS. GIVEN TIMING OF THE FEATURE HIGHEST
POPS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH
FLOW TURNING SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AND A MODESTLY MIXED
PBL...HIGHS WILL BE SOMEWHAT WARMER FOR MOST SPOTS...MAINLY 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 336 PM EDT THURSDAY...COLDER AIR TO WORK INTO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY...SO EXPECTING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS AND
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS
AND GREEN MOUNTAINS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH MAINLY FAIR AND DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED. EXPECTING FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE FROM
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT REAMINS OVER THE REGION. ON WEDNESDAY...A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS TO THE REGION. WILL KEEP IN SOME LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
THURSDAY AS COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF CAPE
COD THROUGH THE PERIOD...BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN AND IFR/MVFR
CEILINGS TO THE REGION THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY. NORTHERLY SURFACE WIND
GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD...MAINLY IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY THROUGH MOST OF
THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
18Z FRIDAY-00Z SATURDAY...MVFR/VFR CEILINGS AS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA.
00Z SATURDAY-18Z SATURDAY...VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.
18Z SATURDAY-00Z MONDAY...VFR TRENDING TO AREAS OF MVFR IN VALLEY
RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT
BRINGS COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION.
00Z MONDAY-00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 405 AM EDT THURSDAY...LATEST ANALYSIS SUGGESTS PCPN TOTALS
FROM CURRENT SYSTEM WILL BE LIGHTER THAN PRIOR INDICATIONS SO NO
HYDROLOGICAL CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED FOR AREA RIVERS. 3-DAY TOTALS
ENDING FRIDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 0.75 TO 1.5
INCHES FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
TOTALS TO NEAR 2 INCHES POSSIBLE ALONG EASTWARD FACING SLOPES OF
THE GREEN MTNS. FURTHER WEST TOTALS SHOULD AVERAGE FROM 0.25 TO
0.75 INCHES IN THE ADIRONDACKS...AND LESS THAN 0.25 INCHES IN THE
SLV.
&&
.MARINE...
AS OF 405 AM EDT THURSDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE OPEN LAKE WATERS INTO THIS EVENING
BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THUS A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT WITH THIS PACKAGE. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL CREATE CHOPPY TO LOCALLY ROUGH WATERS TODAY WITH
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS AVERAGING IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE.
CONVERGENCE OF WINDS AND WAVES DUE TO TOPOGRAPHICAL EFFECTS WILL
MAKE CONDITIONS ROUGHER ON THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO NEAR GALE FORCE POSSIBLE. CAUTION IS THUS
ADVISED TO THOSE PLANNING TO OPERATE SMALL CRAFT ON THE LAKE TODAY
INTO THIS EVENING.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH
HYDROLOGY...JMG
MARINE...JMG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
211 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL BRING
PERIODS OF RAIN AND SHOWERS TO THE REGION TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FROM THE ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD. SHOWERS TAPER
OFF ON FRIDAY...BUT RETURN BY LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH THE PASSAGE OF ADDITIONAL ENERGY. DRIER AND MILDER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 136 PM EDT THURSDAY...FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON FORECAST
REFRESH, DID A FEW MINOR TWEAKS BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. FIRST ON
THE PRECIPITATION FRONT, RADAR SHOWING A PRETTY SOLID AREA OF RAIN
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF VERMONT, AND LOOKING UPSTREAM
IT APPEARS THIS RAIN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
IF NOT MUCH OF THE EVENING. DID FOLLOW THE HRRR MODEL GUIDANCE
WHICH SUGGESTS THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING, WITH A
BRIEF LULL LATE EVENING, BEFORE ANOTHER SOLID BATCH OF RAIN COMES
IN JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. STILL HASN`T BEEN MUCH OUT TOWARD THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY, AND STILL QUESTIONABLE HOW MUCH OF THE RAIN WILL
ACTUALLY GET THERE WITH DRIER LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW IN PLACE.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE NEXT 6 HOURS SHOULD EASILY AVERAGE 1/4"
ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT, IF NOT A BIT MORE. SOME MESONET IN THE
HEAVIER RAIN HAVE REPORTED UP TO 1/3" IN AN HOUR. STILL, TOTALS
WON`T BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO PROBLEMS.
MADE SOME TWEAKS ALSO TO TEMPERATURES BASED ON CURRENT
TEMPERATURES (WHICH SHOULD BE PRETTY MUCH IT FOR HIGHS). FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA IT WILL BE A GREAT DAY TO STAY INDOORS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT THURSDAY...BY TONIGHT TODAY`S SLUG OF MOISTURE
GRADUALLY LOSES ITS IMPETUS AS PARENT UPPER DYNAMICS PULL STEADILY
ENE AND AWAY FROM THE REGION. STILL LOOKING AT DAMP/WET CONDS FROM
THE ERN SLOPES OF THE DACKS EAST INTO VT...BUT PCPN CHARACTER
SHOULD TREND LIGHTER AND LESSEN IN OVERALL COVERAGE AS THE NIGHT
WEARS ON. OUTSIDE SOME EVENING SHOWERS...SLV SHOULD TREND MAINLY
DRY FROM MIDNIGHT ONWARD. LOWS SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING...UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S UNDER CONTINUED CLOUDY/NORTHERLY FLOW AND NEUTRAL
ADVECTIVE REGIME.
BY FRIDAY...SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION. HIGHEST COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS NC/NE VT WHERE SOME ADDL LIGHT TOTALS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. TRENDING MAINLY DRY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WESTWARD.
WITH LINGERING CLOUDS AND CONTINUED NORTHERLY FLOW DID OPT TO LEAN
ON THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE IN REGARD TO TEMPS...HOLDING MAX
VALUES IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN MOST SPOTS...PERHAPS MID 50S
IN THE SLV WHERE SOME AFTERNOON PARTIAL SUN WILL BE POSSIBLE.
AFOREMENTIONED WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS PESKY CLOUDS SLOWLY THIN OVER TIME. LINGERING
SHOWERS END NORTHEAST WITH LOW TEMPS A TAD COOLER...MID 30S TO LOWER
40S.
ON SATURDAY MODELS REMAIN IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT SUGGESTING
ADDITIONAL AND RATHER ROBUST NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DROP
QUICKLY SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH A
RENEWED THREAT OF SHOWERS. GIVEN TIMING OF THE FEATURE HIGHEST
POPS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH
FLOW TURNING SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AND A MODESTLY MIXED
PBL...HIGHS WILL BE SOMEWHAT WARMER FOR MOST SPOTS...MAINLY 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 354 AM EDT THURSDAY...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE
NORTH COUNTRY FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS A CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL LOW TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM JAMES BAY INTO THE NORTHEAST
SATURDAY NIGHT. POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY OUT AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL DEVELOP SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT...TRANSITIONING TO VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOW/MID LEVEL FLOWING TURNING TO
THE NORTHWEST AND STRONG CAA MOVING IN POST FROPA. TEMPS AT THE
SUMMITS AREN`T INCREDIBLY COLD...SO LIKELY ONLY GOING TO SEE A
DUSTING TO MAYBE A COUPLE OF INCHES UP THERE.
WE`LL STILL BE UNDER MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW TO BEGIN THE WORK
WEEK MONDAY SO EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS TO BE AROUND AND
POSSIBLY A FEW ISOLATED MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. A BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR A
NICE WARMING TREND AS WE GO INTO MID-WEEK. WHILE HIGHS MONDAY WILL
BE VERY SEASONAL IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S...WE`LL SEE TEMPS
RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY OUR NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES
THOUGH AT THIS TIME MODELS PREDICT THE LOW CENTER PASSING WELL TO
OUR NORTH WITH ONLY A WEAK RIBBON OF MOISTURE ALONG THE TRAILING
COLD FRONT TRACKING INTO THE NORTHEAST. DOESN`T REALLY LOOK ALL
THAT THREATENING FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN RIGHT NOW...BUT STRONG
CAA BEHIND TO FRONT WILL BRING OUR TEMPS RIGHT BACK BELOW NORMAL
LEVELS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF CAPE
COD THROUGH THE PERIOD...BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN AND IFR/MVFR
CEILINGS TO THE REGION THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY. NORTHERLY SURFACE WIND
GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD...MAINLY IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY THROUGH MOST OF
THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
18Z FRIDAY-00Z SATURDAY...MVFR/VFR CEILINGS AS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA.
00Z SATURDAY-18Z SATURDAY...VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.
18Z SATURDAY-00Z MONDAY...VFR TRENDING TO AREAS OF MVFR IN VALLEY
RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT
BRINGS COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION.
00Z MONDAY-00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 405 AM EDT THURSDAY...LATEST ANALYSIS SUGGESTS PCPN TOTALS
FROM CURRENT SYSTEM WILL BE LIGHTER THAN PRIOR INDICATIONS SO NO
HYDROLOGICAL CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED FOR AREA RIVERS. 3-DAY TOTALS
ENDING FRIDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 0.75 TO 1.5
INCHES FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
TOTALS TO NEAR 2 INCHES POSSIBLE ALONG EASTWARD FACING SLOPES OF
THE GREEN MTNS. FURTHER WEST TOTALS SHOULD AVERAGE FROM 0.25 TO
0.75 INCHES IN THE ADIRONDACKS...AND LESS THAN 0.25 INCHES IN THE
SLV.
&&
.MARINE...
AS OF 405 AM EDT THURSDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE OPEN LAKE WATERS INTO THIS EVENING
BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THUS A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT WITH THIS PACKAGE. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL CREATE CHOPPY TO LOCALLY ROUGH WATERS TODAY WITH
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS AVERAGING IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE.
CONVERGENCE OF WINDS AND WAVES DUE TO TOPOGRAPHICAL EFFECTS WILL
MAKE CONDITIONS ROUGHER ON THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO NEAR GALE FORCE POSSIBLE. CAUTION IS THUS
ADVISED TO THOSE PLANNING TO OPERATE SMALL CRAFT ON THE LAKE TODAY
INTO THIS EVENING.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...WGH
HYDROLOGY...JMG
MARINE...JMG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
143 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL BRING
PERIODS OF RAIN AND SHOWERS TO THE REGION TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FROM THE ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD. SHOWERS TAPER
OFF ON FRIDAY...BUT RETURN BY LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH THE PASSAGE OF ADDITIONAL ENERGY. DRIER AND MILDER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 136 PM EDT THURSDAY...FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON FORECAST
REFRESH, DID A FEW MINOR TWEAKS BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. FIRST ON
THE PRECIPITATION FRONT, RADAR SHOWING A PRETTY SOLID AREA OF RAIN
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF VERMONT, AND LOOKING UPSTREAM
IT APPEARS THIS RAIN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
IF NOT MUCH OF THE EVENING. DID FOLLOW THE HRRR MODEL GUIDANCE
WHICH SUGGESTS THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING, WITH A
BRIEF LULL LATE EVENING, BEFORE ANOTHER SOLID BATCH OF RAIN COMES
IN JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. STILL HASN`T BEEN MUCH OUT TOWARD THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY, AND STILL QUESTIONABLE HOW MUCH OF THE RAIN WILL
ACTUALLY GET THERE WITH DRIER LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW IN PLACE.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE NEXT 6 HOURS SHOULD EASILY AVERAGE 1/4"
ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT, IF NOT A BIT MORE. SOME MESONET IN THE
HEAVIER RAIN HAVE REPORTED UP TO 1/3" IN AN HOUR. STILL, TOTALS
WON`T BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO PROBLEMS.
MADE SOME TWEAKS ALSO TO TEMPERATURES BASED ON CURRENT
TEMPERATURES (WHICH SHOULD BE PRETTY MUCH IT FOR HIGHS). FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA IT WILL BE A GREAT DAY TO STAY INDOORS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT THURSDAY...BY TONIGHT TODAY`S SLUG OF MOISTURE
GRADUALLY LOSES ITS IMPETUS AS PARENT UPPER DYNAMICS PULL STEADILY
ENE AND AWAY FROM THE REGION. STILL LOOKING AT DAMP/WET CONDS FROM
THE ERN SLOPES OF THE DACKS EAST INTO VT...BUT PCPN CHARACTER
SHOULD TREND LIGHTER AND LESSEN IN OVERALL COVERAGE AS THE NIGHT
WEARS ON. OUTSIDE SOME EVENING SHOWERS...SLV SHOULD TREND MAINLY
DRY FROM MIDNIGHT ONWARD. LOWS SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING...UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S UNDER CONTINUED CLOUDY/NORTHERLY FLOW AND NEUTRAL
ADVECTIVE REGIME.
BY FRIDAY...SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION. HIGHEST COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS NC/NE VT WHERE SOME ADDL LIGHT TOTALS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. TRENDING MAINLY DRY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WESTWARD.
WITH LINGERING CLOUDS AND CONTINUED NORTHERLY FLOW DID OPT TO LEAN
ON THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE IN REGARD TO TEMPS...HOLDING MAX
VALUES IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN MOST SPOTS...PERHAPS MID 50S
IN THE SLV WHERE SOME AFTERNOON PARTIAL SUN WILL BE POSSIBLE.
AFOREMENTIONED WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS PESKY CLOUDS SLOWLY THIN OVER TIME. LINGERING
SHOWERS END NORTHEAST WITH LOW TEMPS A TAD COOLER...MID 30S TO LOWER
40S.
ON SATURDAY MODELS REMAIN IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT SUGGESTING
ADDITIONAL AND RATHER ROBUST NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DROP
QUICKLY SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH A
RENEWED THREAT OF SHOWERS. GIVEN TIMING OF THE FEATURE HIGHEST
POPS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH
FLOW TURNING SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AND A MODESTLY MIXED
PBL...HIGHS WILL BE SOMEWHAT WARMER FOR MOST SPOTS...MAINLY 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 354 AM EDT THURSDAY...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE
NORTH COUNTRY FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS A CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL LOW TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM JAMES BAY INTO THE NORTHEAST
SATURDAY NIGHT. POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY OUT AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL DEVELOP SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT...TRANSITIONING TO VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOW/MID LEVEL FLOWING TURNING TO
THE NORTHWEST AND STRONG CAA MOVING IN POST FROPA. TEMPS AT THE
SUMMITS AREN`T INCREDIBLY COLD...SO LIKELY ONLY GOING TO SEE A
DUSTING TO MAYBE A COUPLE OF INCHES UP THERE.
WE`LL STILL BE UNDER MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW TO BEGIN THE WORK
WEEK MONDAY SO EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS TO BE AROUND AND
POSSIBLY A FEW ISOLATED MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. A BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR A
NICE WARMING TREND AS WE GO INTO MID-WEEK. WHILE HIGHS MONDAY WILL
BE VERY SEASONAL IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S...WE`LL SEE TEMPS
RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY OUR NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES
THOUGH AT THIS TIME MODELS PREDICT THE LOW CENTER PASSING WELL TO
OUR NORTH WITH ONLY A WEAK RIBBON OF MOISTURE ALONG THE TRAILING
COLD FRONT TRACKING INTO THE NORTHEAST. DOESN`T REALLY LOOK ALL
THAT THREATENING FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN RIGHT NOW...BUT STRONG
CAA BEHIND TO FRONT WILL BRING OUR TEMPS RIGHT BACK BELOW NORMAL
LEVELS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
WILL BRING DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO THE AREA WITH
PREVAILING MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE PERIOD. RAIN MOVES IN MID-
MORNING WITH SOME MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE...THOUGH UPSTREAM OBS ONLY
SUPPORT VFR VSBY. EXCEPTION ON THE RAIN WILL BE KMSS WHICH WILL
LIKELY REMAIN DRY...BUT WILL STILL SEE MVFR CIGS MOVE IN BY MID-
MORNING. WINDS WILL MAINLY BE NORTHERLY AT 8-12KTS THRU THE PERIOD
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25KTS AT TIMES.
OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
12Z THU - 12Z FRI...MVFR/IFR LIKELY AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS SLOWLY
NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.
12Z FRI - 12Z SAT...MVFR TRENDING TO VFR UNDER BRIEF HIGH
PRESSURE.
12Z SAT - 00Z TUE...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR IN VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AS COLD LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 405 AM EDT THURSDAY...LATEST ANALYSIS SUGGESTS PCPN TOTALS
FROM CURRENT SYSTEM WILL BE LIGHTER THAN PRIOR INDICATIONS SO NO
HYDROLOGICAL CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED FOR AREA RIVERS. 3-DAY TOTALS
ENDING FRIDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 0.75 TO 1.5
INCHES FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
TOTALS TO NEAR 2 INCHES POSSIBLE ALONG EASTWARD FACING SLOPES OF
THE GREEN MTNS. FURTHER WEST TOTALS SHOULD AVERAGE FROM 0.25 TO
0.75 INCHES IN THE ADIRONDACKS...AND LESS THAN 0.25 INCHES IN THE
SLV.
&&
.MARINE...
AS OF 405 AM EDT THURSDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE OPEN LAKE WATERS INTO THIS EVENING
BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THUS A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT WITH THIS PACKAGE. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL CREATE CHOPPY TO LOCALLY ROUGH WATERS TODAY WITH
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS AVERAGING IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE.
CONVERGENCE OF WINDS AND WAVES DUE TO TOPOGRAPHICAL EFFECTS WILL
MAKE CONDITIONS ROUGHER ON THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO NEAR GALE FORCE POSSIBLE. CAUTION IS THUS
ADVISED TO THOSE PLANNING TO OPERATE SMALL CRAFT ON THE LAKE TODAY
INTO THIS EVENING.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
HYDROLOGY...JMG
MARINE...JMG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
405 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014
EARLIER FOG/STRATUS GONE BY NOON ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA...AND WIDESPREAD SUNSHINE HAS BEEN THE RULE OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...BAND OF CIRRUS WORKING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE RUSHMORE STATE...AND REMAINS TO BE SEEN IF THAT WILL BE
THICK ENOUGH IN SPOTS TO IMPAIR VIEWING OF THE PARTIAL SOLAR ECLIPSE
LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA. VERY DRY AIR HAS MIXED
DOWN FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS...BUT AREAS TO THE SOUTH TOWARD SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA YET HAVE A BIT OF STRATUS TO REMOVE...AND
TRAJECTORY OF HIGHER LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS TO DEAL WITH. INVERSION
TONIGHT WILL BE IN PLACE AS TEMPS CONTINUE TO WARM ALOFT...AND
SHOULD PROVIDE AN EFFECTIVE CONDUIT TO TRANSPORT THIS
MOISTURE NORTHWARD. LIKELY WILL SEE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG AGAIN TONIGHT. NAM AND RAP ARE QUITE INDICATIVE OF THE
POTENTIAL...WITH SREF PROBABILITIES GARNERING ATTENTION IN THE 09Z-
12Z WINDOW. HOWEVER...A BIT MORE WIND...DAY OF DRYING...AND SOME
HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDINESS GIVES THIS A BIT MORE STRATUS OVER FOG LOOK
FOR THE LATTER OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING. TRAJECTORY OF FLOW WOULD
FAVOR MAINLY EAST/SOUTHEAST HALF TO TWO THIRDS OF CWA. WIND SHIFT
MOVES INTO THE JAMES VALLEY EARLY MORNING...AND THIS INCREASE IN
WESTERLY COMPONENT WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD ENOUGH TO HELP ERODE LOWER
CLOUDS FAIRLY EFFECTIVELY...IF THE WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW OFF SURFACE
IS NOT ENOUGH TO SPEED ALONG ON ITS OWN.
AFTER REMOVAL OF THE LOWER CLOUDS/FOG...FRIDAY WILL SHAPE UP TO BE A
VERY NICE FALL DAY. WINDS PICKING UP A WESTERLY COMPONENT WILL FAVOR
MIXING...AND HAVE ASSUMED THAT THE LACK OF GREATER MIXING DEPTH IN
THE MODELS IS IN ERROR.
WILL HAVE AN INCREASE IN HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS AS STRONG WAVE MOVES
NORTH OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY...BUT SHOULD STILL MAINTAIN A
MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY BALANCE TO THE DAY. THIS COULD IMPACT
WARMING BY A COUPLE DEGREES...BUT OVERALL WILL SEE 70S ACROSS THE
AREA...AND WILL SEE IF ENOUGH MIXING IN PLAY TO BRING SOME READINGS
AROUND 80 WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014
PLEASANT WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
FILTER INTO THE REGION WILL COOLER UPPER LEVEL FLOW IN PLACE. WHILE
WINDS ON SATURDAY WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS...WINDS
TURN SOUTHEASTERLY AND BECOME BREEZY ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS BOTH
DAYS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70.
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SUNDAY NIGHT
AND NOSES INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON MONDAY.
INTIAL SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD MAINLY
RESULT IN SOME INCREASED CLOUDS...BUT OTHERWISE REMAIN DRY FOR THE
FORECAST AREA WITH VERY DRY LOW LEVELS. MAIN WAVE ARRIVES MONDAY
NIGHT. MODEL TIMING IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR THE ONSET...BUT THE
LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM IS LESS CERTAIN. THE GFS IN
PARTICULAR DEVELOPS A MUCH STRONGER NEGATIVELY TILTED WAVE THAT
BECOMES CUT OFF AND LIFTS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. WITH A SLOWER
AND STRONGER SOLUTION...THE GFS HOLDS ONTO PRECIPITATION IN OUR
FORECAST AREA LONGEST. THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN LOOK TO BE MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT...BUT LEFT SOME ISOLATED MENTION MAINLY ACROSS OUR
EASTERN TWO THIRDS ON TUESDAY WITH THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE TIMING.
WITH CLOUDS..RAIN SHOWERS AND COOLER AIR ALOFT
ARRIVING...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AS WELL. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED
IN 50S ON TUESDAY WITH A VERY BRISK NORTHWEST WIND.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE DRY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
KEEPING TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 104 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014
EARLIER WIDESPREAD VLIFR CONDITIONS EAST OF THE JAMES VALLEY HAVE
NOW ALL DISSIPATED...BUT ODDS ARE TILTING IN THE FAVOR OF
REDEVELOPMENT OF LIFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT IN MUCH THE SAME AREA.
WITH INVERSION REMAINING STRONG OVERNIGHT...SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
WILL KEEP MOISTURE INCREASING BENEATH THIS FEATURE FOR KFSD/KSUX
AREAS. LATTER HALF NIGHT LIKELY TO SEE STRATUS AREA EXPAND IN WEAK
LOW LEVEL WIND MAX REGION. LOOKS TO BE MORE OF A STRATUS EVENT
OVER A DENSE FOG EVENT...SO GRADUALLY WORK TOWARD AN MVFR VISIBILITY
LEADING INTO A LONGER PERIOD OF LIFR CEILINGS/IFR VISIBILITY.
ANOTHER WIND SHIFT TO MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT WILL PUSH ACROSS
THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE MORNING...AND FAIRLY SHALLOW
THERMODYNAMIC STRUCTURE SHOULD HELP TO FLUSH OUT A BIT MORE
EFFICIENTLY THE FOLLOWING MORNING.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CHAPMAN
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CHAPMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
310 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014
.SHORT TERM...
UPPER RIDGING GRADUALLY SPREADING IN FROM OUR WEST WILL MAINTAIN
QUIET WEATHER OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. STILL CONTENDING WITH DAMP
SURFACE CONDITIONS...HOWEVER...WHICH WILL CREATE SOME FOG
OPPORTUNITY TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF WINDOW
FOR SHALLOW RADIATION FOG DEVELOPMENT FROM NORTH-CENTRAL INTO
CENTRAL AREAS LATER THIS EVENING INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE WEAK BUT STILL SLIGHTLY CONVERGENT. HRRR
SOLUTIONS THE PAST FEW HOURS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT SHOWING SOME
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT FOG AT LEAST...THOUGH WE DO NOT SEE INDICATIONS
IN THE LATEST RAP OR WRF/NAM RUNS. STILL...HRRR HAS DONE A VERY GOOD
JOB TODAY TO THIS POINT AND WE WILL FOLLOW ITS LEAD. LATER IN THE
NIGHT THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD VEER ACROSS NORTH-NORTHWESTERN AREAS
WITH DIVERGENT TREND AND LESS RISK OF FOG AT THAT TIME. BETTER FOG
SIGNAL LATER TONIGHT RUNS FROM THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE
ROLLING PLAINS...AND MAINLY THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS WHERE WE
HAVE INDICATED AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. THIS WOULD HOLD BIGGEST RISK FOR SIGNIFICANT RESTRICTIONS
AS WELL AND HAVE INDICATED SUCH IN THE HAZARDOUS OUTLOOK. OTHERWISE
STRATUS BY MID TO LATE MORNING FRIDAY SHOULD BE GONE OR DISSOLVING
RAPIDLY AND A WARM DAY WILL LEAD INTO THE WEEKEND WITH LITTLE
DISAGREEMENT FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS. RMCQUEEN
&&
.LONG TERM...
UPPER RIDGING WILL KICK OFF THE EXTENDED AND PROVIDE A PERIOD OF
WARM AND DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RUN 10-15 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 80S THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
FEW LOWER 90S COULD EVEN MIX IN OFF THE CAPROCK. BREEZY SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL MATERIALIZE BY LATE WEEKEND AS A LARGE
WESTERN TROUGH BEGINS TO MAKE EASTWARD PROGRESS AND SURFACE
TROUGHING DEEPENS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. MONDAY WILL BRING
ANOTHER WARM DAY AS BREEZY DOWNSLOPING WINDS CONTINUE...BUT THE
APPROACHING MEAN WESTERN TROUGH WILL PROVIDE MODEST DEEP LAYER
COOLING WHICH SHOULD KNOCK SEVERAL DEGREES OFF THE HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON THE CAPROCK. AN INITIAL TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST TO PASS MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIKELY TRACKING OUT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SHORTWAVE...BUT IT CURRENTLY
APPEARS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE TOO LIMITED TO SUPPORT ANY
MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION CHANCES...THOUGH A ROGUE SPRINKLE OR VIRGA
SHOWER MAY BE POSSIBLE. THE ONE EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN ZONES...WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE MAY BE CLOSER BY...BUT EVEN
HERE THE PROSPECTS FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION DOES NOT LOOK VERY
GOOD AND WE HAVE MAINTAINED POPS NEAR 10 PERCENT.
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW THE INITIAL TROUGH PASSAGE AND USHER IN
AN AIR MASS OF PACIFIC ORIGIN MONDAY NIGHT. MORE SEASONABLE LATE
OCTOBER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
SETTING THE STAGE FOR MORE PLEASANT FALL WEATHER WITH MILD DAYS AND
COOL NIGHTS. ANOTHER PASSING UPPER LEVEL WAVE COULD SUPPLY A SECOND
WEAK COLD FRONT BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY...KEEPING
TEMPERATURES NEAR LATE OCTOBER NORMALS. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE
MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 51 84 50 84 50 / 0 0 0 0 0
TULIA 53 85 52 86 53 / 0 0 0 0 0
PLAINVIEW 54 84 53 85 53 / 0 0 0 0 0
LEVELLAND 55 84 51 84 51 / 0 0 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 55 84 55 85 55 / 0 0 0 0 0
DENVER CITY 56 83 52 83 52 / 0 0 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 56 84 52 83 53 / 0 0 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 59 89 57 92 56 / 0 0 0 0 0
SPUR 58 86 55 86 54 / 0 0 0 0 0
ASPERMONT 59 86 57 88 56 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
05/23
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
602 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...FOG LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRI
MORNING...TEMPERATURES/CLOUDS THRU THE PERIOD.
DATA ANALYSIS AT 18Z HAD THE BAND OF SHRA CONTINUING TO MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE WEST EDGE NEAR A KMDZ-KVOK-KOVS LINE. WV
IMAGERY SHOWED THE RATHER VIGOROUS MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE/TROUGH MOVING
STEADILY EAST ACROSS THE REGION. VIS IMAGERY SHOWED THE CLEARING
BEHIND THE TROUGH WAS SLOWER TO MOVE EAST...WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE/
IFR CLOUD DECKS TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION NEAR 900MB. EARLY
AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 40S IN THE SHRA OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN
WI...TO THE UPPER 50S-MID 60S IN THE SUNSHINE OVER SOUTHWEST MN.
23.12Z MODELS INITIALIZED WELL...EVEN GFS WITH ITS SFC DEWPOINTS
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/NORTHERN PLAINS. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH QUICKLY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND
SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN. CONSISTENT SIGNAL FOR A WEAK SHORTWAVE
FROM THE WEST TO WORK THRU THE SHORTWAVE RIDGING ACROSS REGION LATE
TONIGHT/FRI MORNING. MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT ON A SHORTWAVE/TOUGH
TO DROP TOWARD/ACROSS LK SUPERIOR FRI NIGHT. TREND FOR TONIGHT THRU
FRI NIGHT GENERALLY FAVORS A COMPROMISE OF THE EARLIER RUNS. SHORT
TERM FCST CONFIDENCE IS GOOD THIS CYCLE.
IN THE SHORT TERM...POST TROUGH DECREASE OF CLOUDS/CLEARING EXPECTED
TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE RIDGING/RISING HGTS
BUILD IN. RAIN/CLOUDS TODAY KEEPING T/TD SPREADS ON THE LOW SIDE
OVER THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS PLUS THE DECREASE OF CLOUDS
TONIGHT AND GRADIENT WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT ACROSS MOST OF
THE FCST AREA SETS THE STAGE FOR AREAS TO WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG
LATER TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. CONTINUED STRONG SIGNAL AMONG SREF
MEMBERS FOR VSBYS BELOW 1SM OVER THE EAST 2/3 OF THE FCST AREA
CENTERED ON 12Z FRI MORNING. BASED ON WHAT HAPPENED WITH DENSE FOG
ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL MN...EASTERN SD/NEB...WESTERN IA THIS MORNING...
UPON COORD WITH NEIGHBORS WILL ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE
ENTIRE FCST AREA FROM 06Z-15Z FRI.
MODEST ROUND OF LOWER LEVEL WARM ADVECTION/MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD
OF A SFC-700MB TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA FRI. THE MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FRI MORNING WHILE THE MAIN 925-
850MB MOISTURE INCREASE SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA FRI AFTERNOON/
EVENING. NAM INSISTS ON PRODUCING SOME LIGHT QPF ACROSS THE
SOUTH/WEST PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING BUT
THIS LOOKS OVERDONE DUE TO 1/ THE SHALLOWNESS OF THE MOISTURE 2/
MOISTURE IS UNDER AN INVERSION NEAR 850MB AND 3/ THE SHORTWAVE IS
WELL SOUTH/EAST OF THE AREA BY 00Z SAT. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
PATCHY -DZ BUT MOISTURE LOOKS EVEN TOO SHALLOW FOR THIS AND LEFT
FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING DRY. SOME INCREASE OF LOWER STRATO-CU CLOUDS
EXPECTED FOR FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING...IMPACTING TEMPERATURES. MIXED
925MB TEMPS FRI AFTERNOON WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID 60S-LOW
70S...BUT WITH POTENTIAL FOR THE LOWER AFTERNOON CLOUDS WILL LEAVE
FRI HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 60S. LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES
FRI EVENING...AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH/COLD FRONT WITH THE
LK SUPERIOR SHORTWAVE. 925MB TEMPS PEAK IN THE +13C TO +18C RANGE
AROUND 06Z SAT WITH THE STRONGER LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION ARRIVING
AROUND 12Z SAT. FRONT COMES THRU DRY FRI NIGHT AS 925-700MB LAYER
IS DRY. GIVEN BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS FOR MIXING FRI NIGHT BOTH AHEAD
OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT...FRI NIGHT LOWS CONTINUE TO LOOK QUITE
MILD FOR LATE OCT. USED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE LOWS/HIGHS FOR
TONIGHT THRU SAT NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOR SATURDAY THRU SUNDAY NIGHT...SHRA/TSRA
CHANCES SUN NIGHT...TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD.
23.12Z MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SAT THRU SUN AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PASSES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES EARLY SAT THEN HGTS OVER THE
REGION SLOWLY RISE LATER SAT THRU SUN. GOOD MODEL CONSISTENCY FOR
THE LONGWAVE RIDGE AXIS TO BE NEAR THE MS RIVER AT 00Z MON AND
LONGWAVE TROUGHING TO BE OVER THE ROCKIES. TREND AT 00Z MON FAVORS
SLOWER OF THE EARLIER MODEL RUNS. RIDGE AXIS QUICKLY MOVES EAST
SUN NIGHT WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BY 12Z MON AS THE
ROCKIES TROUGH BEGINS TO EJECT INTO THE PLAINS. FCST CONFIDENCE
FOR SAT THRU SUN NIGHT IS ON THE GOOD SIDE.
SAT THRU SUN DOMINATED BY CAN SFC HIGH PRESSURE. DRY NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA SAT/SAT NIGHT. LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
CONTINUES SAT BUT 925MB TEMPS IN +9C TO +13C AT 00Z SUN. UNDER
SUNNY SKIES...SAT HIGHS STILL LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S-MID 60S
EVEN WITH THE COLD ADVECTION. 925MB WINDS IN THE 25KT RANGE SAT
WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING MIXING TO 900MB SAT AFTERNOON...FOR
BRISK/BREEZY/GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. SFC RIDGE AXIS SLIDES ACROSS
THE AREA SAT NIGHT. WINDS DECOUPLE AND UNDER CLEAR SKIES STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING/LARGE DIURNAL SWING EXPECTED SAT NIGHT. SFC-
850MB RIDGE AXIS QUICKLY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA SUN WITH A RETURN
OF SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH LOW LEVEL FLOW/WARM ADVECTION. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN BEGINS TO SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST END OF THE
FCST AREA LATE SUN. INITIALLY A VERY DRY SFC-500MB AIRMASS TO
MOISTEN UP. THE MOISTURE/THETA-E AXIS AND STRONGER LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION REMAIN WEST/SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA THRU 00Z MON. LEFT
SUNDAY DRY FOR NOW BUT MAY YET NEED A SMALL -SHRA CHANCE ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST END OF THE FCST AREA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. LEAD
ROUND OF STRONGER/DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT/THETA-E
CONVERGENCE AND WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE PLAINS TROUGH/LOW
SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA SUN NIGHT. IMPROVING CONSENSUS FOR A WARM
FRONT AHEAD OF THE LOW IN THE PLAINS TO BE LIFTING ACROSS IA SUN
NIGHT...PROVIDING AN ADDED FOCUS/ISENTROPIC LIFTING MECHANISM
NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY. 250-500+ J/KG OF MUCAPE PROGGED IN THE
AIRMASS BEING LIFTED OVER THE WARM FRONT SUN NIGHT. CONSENSUS RAIN
CHANCES IN THE 20-50 PERCENT RANGE LOOK GOOD SUN NIGHT...AND
CONTINUED THE MENTION OF TSRA. GENERALLY STAYED WITH A BLEND OF
THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HIGHS/LOWS FOR SAT THRU SUN NIGHT.
FOR MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.../DAYS 4 TO 7/...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES MON/MON
NIGHT...SHRA CHANCES TUE/TUE NIGHT...TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD.
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS OF 23.00Z/23.12Z IN GOOD AGREEMENT MON AS
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PLAINS. REASONABLE AGREEMENT
AMONG MODELS TUE AS THE TROUGH/MAIN ENERGY LIFTS INTO THE MID/UPPER
MS VALLEY. TREND MON/TUE FAVORS A COMPROMISE OF THE EARLIER RUNS ON
TIMING/STRENGTH OF THIS TROUGH. RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN
ECMWF/GFS ON WED WITH BROAD TROUGHING OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL/EASTERN
NOAM AND SOME FORM OF RIDGING OVER THE US/CAN ROCKIES. DIFFERENCES
BY THU...MAINLY WITH PROGRESSIVENESS OF A NORTHWEST FLOW SHORTWAVE
INTO THE REGION...WHICH IS NOT UNUSUAL AT DAY 7. 23.12Z ECMWF/GFS IN
BETTER AGREEMENT THU THAN THEIR 23.00Z RUNS WERE. ECMWF OFFERS THE
BETTER RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY WED/THU. FCST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE TO
GOOD MON-WED THEN AVERAGE ON THU.
MOIST AIRMASS WITH UP TO 250-500 J/KG MUCAPE PROGGED OVER THE AREA
MON/MON NIGHT. THIS AHEAD THE SFC-MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
PLAINS AND LIFTING TOWARD THE REGION. PLENTY OF DETAIL DIFFERENCES
WITH THE STRENGTH/LOCATION OF THE SFC LOW/STRONGER FORCING LIFTING
TOWARD/ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AT THE DAY 4 TIME-FRAME BUT THE 20-
50 PERCENT SHRA/TSRA CHANCES PER THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS QUITE
REASONABLE FOR NOW. BY TUE THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE SFC-700MB LOW
AND MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTING ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A
DEFORMATION BAND OF MOISTURE/FORCING TO ROTATE ACROSS THE AREA.
AGAIN PLENTY OF DETAIL DIFFERENCES OUT IN DAY 5 BUT 25-50 PERCENT
SHRA CHANCES PER THE CONSENSUS GOOD AT THIS TIME. SFC THRU MID LEVEL
SYSTEM TO LIFT OUT TUE NIGHT...WITH DIMINISHING -SHRA CHANCES.
COOLER AIRMASS/WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN ITS
WAKE FOR WHAT SHOULD BE A DRY DAY WED. TIMING DIFFERENCES BY THU
IMPACT POTENTIAL -SHRA CHANCES SPREADING BACK INTO THE FCST AREA.
GIVEN LESSER CONFIDENCE OUT ON DAY 7...STAYED WITH THE MODEL/
ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS. GIVEN ALL THE LOWER LEVEL DETAIL DIFFERENCES IN
DAYS 4-7...THE BLEND OF THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HIGHS/LOWS
FOR MON-THU LOOK WELL TRENDED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 602 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014
WHILE THE CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED OUT OF KRST...THE BACK EDGE HAS YET
TO REACH KLSE. GIVEN THE CURRENT MOVEMENT OF THE CLOUDS...KLSE MAY
NOT CLEAR OUT UNTIL 02Z OR SO AND EXPECT THE IFR CEILINGS WITH
MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITIES TO CONTINUE UNTIL THE CLEARING ARRIVES.
ONCE THE CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED OUT...IT SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR
DENSE FOG TO FORM OVERNIGHT. PLENTY OF MOISTURE IS IN PLACE FROM
THE RAIN AND WITH LIGHT WINDS AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS...EXPECT TO SEE MVFR VISIBILITIES REDEVELOP AT BOTH
SITES BY 06Z AND THEN GO DOWN TO IFR BY 08Z WITH A VISIBILITY AS
LOW AS 1/4SM. THE 23.20Z RAP SUGGESTS CONDITIONS WILL START TO
IMPROVE AT KRST SHORTLY AFTER 12Z AS DRYING ALOFT DEVELOPS ALONG
WITH AN INCREASE IN THE SURFACE WINDS TO BREAK UP THE FOG. THESE
CONDITIONS MAY NOT DEVELOP OVER KLSE UNTIL MID MORNING SO HAVE
MAINTAINED THE IFR CONDITIONS UNTIL 15Z. BOTH SITES THEN GO TO VFR
CONDITIONS BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. THE 23.18Z NAM
INDICATES THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR CEILINGS REDEVELOPING FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN A ZONE OF 1-3
UBAR/S OF UP GLIDE ON THE 300K ISENTROPIC SURFACE. IT RAPIDLY
INCREASES THE MOISTURE OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH...BUT DOES SO WITHOUT THE AID OF ANY MOISTURE ADVECTION
INTO THE AREA. THE 23.12Z GFS DOES NOT SHOW THIS RAPID MOISTURE
INCREASE AND FOR NOW HAVE JUST OPTED TO SHOW SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS
WITH THIS FEATURE.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR WIZ017-029-
032>034-041>044-053>055-061.
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR MNZ079-
086>088-094>096.
IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR IAZ008>011-
018-019-029-030.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1226 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014
THE LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE DAKOTAS PUSHING AN OCCLUDED FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AHEAD OF THE FEATURES...A CHANNEL OF DEEP
MOISTURE IS EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN MEXICO INTO MINNESOTA AND
WESTERN WISCONSIN. A FEW SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE LEADING
EDGE OF THIS MOISTURE CHANNEL FROM IRONWOOD TO LA CROSSE.
HOWEVER...THE MAIN BAND OF BROKEN RAIN SHOWERS IS MOVING EAST OVER
EASTERN MINNESOTA. CLEAR SKIES RESUME BEHIND THE OCCLUDED FRONT OVER
THE DAKOTAS. THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE TIMING OF RAIN
CHANCES AS THE SHORTWAVE AND OCCLUDED FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY.
TODAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL PUSH A DECAYING
OCCLUDED FRONT EAST ACROSS THE STATE. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND
FRONT...WILL SEE DECENT MOISTURE WITHIN THE THETAE AXIS SPREAD EAST
WITH PWATS UPWARDS OF AN INCH. BUT FORCING AND INSTABILITY ARE ONLY
MODEST SO ALTHOUGH MOST PLACES WILL SEE LIGHT RAIN...AMOUNTS SHOULD
ONLY REACH A TENTH OR TWO. ADJUSTED THE TIMING OF THE BAND OF RAIN
ACROSS THE AREA SLIGHTLY SLOWER BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE. AMPLE
DRY AIR SHOULD KEEP AREAS ALONG THE BAY AND FOX VALLEY DRY THROUGH
THE MORNING THEN SHOULD SEE THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES ARRIVE BETWEEN
18-21Z. TEMPS WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO REACH INTO THE MIDDLE 50S
ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN BEFORE THE RAIN ARRIVES...BUT TEMPS WILL
LIKELY STRUGGLE TO REACH 50 OVER NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN SINCE RAIN
WILL ARRIVE DURING THE MORNING.
TONIGHT...WHATS LEFT OF THE LIGHT RAIN WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF
EXITING EASTERN WISCONSIN EARLY IN THE EVENING AND THINK RAIN
CHANCES WILL HAVE MOSTLY EXITED THE LAKE SHORE BY 03Z. PLENTY OF
DRY AIR ALOFT WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE...AND INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE WILL LOWER THE INVERSION. PROGGED SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BECOME TRAPPED BELOW THIS INVERSION AS SKIES
CLEAR OVERNIGHT. LOOKING UPSTREAM...VISIBILITIES ARE FALLING RIGHT
BEHIND THE CLOUD LINE OVER NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS SUPPORTS
A DECENT SETUP FOR FOG LATE TONIGHT AND WILL ADD TO THE FORECAST
EVERYWHERE. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S.
FRIDAY...ONCE ANY MORNING FOG BURNS OFF...SHOULD SEE A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE UNTIL THE AFTERNOON WHEN A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. SHOULD SEE CLOUDS INCREASE THERE...BUT MOSTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
PUSH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014
NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW FORECAST BY THE MODELS FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. MILDER THAN USUAL WEATHER EXPECTED AS
THE SURFACE HIGH MOVING IN IS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INSTEAD OF
FROM CANADA. UPPER FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUES UNTIL AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE FIRST ROUND OF PRECIPITATION MAY ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY
AS A WARM FRONT AS A WARM FRONT FORMS AND MOVES NORTH FROM
ILLINOIS. LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND CONVERGENCE SHOULD GENERATE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST
ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THE LOW INTENSIFIES AND LIFTS TO THE
NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH.
COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
A BIG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPS SOUTH FROM CANADA.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014
RAIN MOVING ACROSS STATE AND WILL EXIT WEST TO EAST BEGINNING
AROUND 19Z IN CENTRAL WISC...AND OUT OF EASTERN WISC BY ABOUT
01Z. CONSIDERABLE AREA OF CLOUDS BELOW 1000 FT BEHIND THE RAIN
AREA ALONG WITH VSBYS OF 2 TO 4 MILES IN FOG. LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS
EXPECTED TO LINGER OR EXPAND TONIGHT WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING
AROUND 14Z FRIDAY.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......JKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1113 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014
.UPDATE...
AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA...IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LEAD 500 MB VORTICITY
MAXIMUM. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
THE MAIN 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS DRIVING THE SECOND AREA OF
RAIN SHOWERS IN NORTHEAST IOWA. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
EAST INTO THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND THROUGH THE AREA
THIS EVENING. THUS...THE AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS TIME.
THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH OF THIS WILL HANG ON IN THE
FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES...AS DRY AIR IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE
AMOUNT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY. HRRR AND MOST OTHER MESOSCALE MODELS
CONTINUE TO PUSH THE RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THAT AREA.
WILL CONTINUE HIGH POPS IN THE WEST AND NORTH THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING...WITH POPS TRENDING LOWER TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST. CLOUDS
AND RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD LIMIT HIGHS TO THE MID 50S IN MOST AREAS.
&&
.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...
AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO
PUSH EAST THROUGH TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON...ENDING BY EARLY TO
MID EVENING IN THE EAST. MAY SEE SOME MVFR CEILINGS AS WELL.
SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL REACH THE
EASTERN SITES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WITH DRY
AIR IN PLACE. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION PREVAILING SHOWERS FOR NOW
BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH TRENDS. SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY
EVENING...WITH AN OCCASIONAL GUST TO AROUND 15 KNOTS.
FOG WITH CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES DOWN TO ALTERNATE MINIMUMS MAY
DEVELOP AND LINGER THROUGH THE REST OF TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...AS LOW LEVELS REMAIN MOIST WITH LIGHT WINDS. SOME
UNCERTAINTY HERE BUT WILL TREND IN THAT DIRECTION IN TAFS. LIGHT
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY...WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN
CUMULUS CLOUDS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/
TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
DIDN/T NEED TO CHANCE MUCH FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. DECENT MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TODAY WITH A
WEAKENING LOW LEVEL REFLECTION AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. A BAND OF SLOW
MOVING LIGHT SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH...LASTING ABOUT 4-6 HOURS.
LOOKS LIKE THINGS MAY HAVE SLOWED DOWN BY AN HOUR OR TWO. THE
HIGHEST POPS WILL REMAIN WEST OF MADISON AND THEN GRADUALLY LOWER
THEM AS THE SHOWERS MOVE EAST. THE OVERALL WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM
WITH TIME SHOULD BRING MAINLY CHCY POPS TO THE SOUTHEAST BY MID
AFTERNOON.
THE PRECIP MAY LINGERING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE EARLY
EVENING...OTHERWISE QUIET WEATHER RETURNS FOR TONIGHT WITH SLOW
CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST.
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
500 MILLIBAR RIDGING EXPANDS ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE
NAM AND TO A LESSER DEGREE...THE GFS AND ECMWF...SHOW A WEAKENING
VORTICITY AXIS MOVING THROUGH THIS DEVELOPING NORTHWEST
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. IN THE LOW LEVELS THERE IS A SURFACE TROUGH
THAT APPROACHES LATER FRIDAY AND MOVES ACROSS SRN WI FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE NAM HAS BEEN THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN GENERATING LIGHT QPF.
MEANWHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE HINTED AT SOME LIGHT QPF AS WELL
BUT VERY MINIMAL COVERAGE AND MOSTLY TO OUR SOUTH. THE NAM AND GFS
BUFKIT SHOWS MAINLY HIGH BASED AC WITH SOUNDINGS MOISTENING UP
CONSIDERABLY AOB 5K FEET FRIDAY NIGHT SUGGESTING AT LEAST THE
POTENTIAL FOR DRIZZLE. PER COLLAB WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES WILL
KEEP FORECAST DRY BUT NUDGE SILENT POPS UP JUST A SMIDGE.
SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW. VORT MAX/SHORTWAVE TREKS
FROM LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THE EASTERN LAKES WITH ANY INFLUENCE OF
THIS FEATURE REMAINING TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST. WEAK SHOT OF
CAA WITH SURFACE/850 WINDS FAIRLY GUSTY WITH TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT. SURFACE HIGH MOVES INTO WRN IA BY 00Z. 925 TEMPS DROP
FROM THE TEENS CELSIUS AT THE OUTSET BACK INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.
SO STILL LOOKING AT LOW TO MID 60S FOR HIGHS.
SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
500 MILLIBAR HEIGHTS RISE AS PLAINS UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS TOWARDS
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST FROM WI
AND IL INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. RETURN FLOW SLOW TO GET GOING WITH
WARMER 925 TEMPS TO OUR SOUTHWEST ACROSS IA...SO AIRMASS
MODIFICATION NOT GREAT. MOST GUIDANCE NUMBERS SUPPORTING MID 50S
TO LOW 60S FOR HIGHS.
SUNDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST WITH UPPER FLOW BECOMING MORE
SOUTHWEST. WITH CYCLOGENESIS GETTING UNDERWAY IN THE PLAINS...850
LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES TOWARDS SRN WI WITH DECENT 850 MOISTURE
PUSH. MINIMAL ELEVATED CAPE SHOWN IN THE SOUNDINGS....THOUGH WITH
DECENT THETA-E ADVECTION AND FORCING FROM LLJ WILL GO AHEAD AND
MENTION THUNDER.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
ECMWF AND GFS BRING WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIRMASS INTO THE AREA
WITH A POTENTIAL LULL IN PRECIP AFTER INITIAL WAA EVENT MOVES
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB DEEP INTO THE
60S...POTENTIALLY HIGHER WITH SOME SUNSHINE. PRIMARY LOW LIFTS
NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH BOTH MODELS
SHOWING THE LOW TRACKING THROUGH WI. AT SOME POINT WILL PROBABLY
NEED TO BOOST POPS FOR THIS PERIOD AS SOME CONSENSUS STARTING TO
TAKE SHAPE.
WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
GFS HAS A FAIRLY BENIGN NW LOW LEVEL FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTED LOW TO THE NORTHEAST. MEANWHILE THE 12Z ECMWF HAD
DEVELOPED A SECONDARY LOW TO OUR SOUTH AND BROUGHT A SLUG OF
PRECIP IN HERE AS THE LOW TRACKED TO OUR SOUTHEAST. 00Z ECMWF HAS
COMPLETELY CONVERTED TO THE GFS IDEA OF A MORE PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM
WITH FRONTAL PRECIP SHIFTING WELL EAST AND NO SECONDARY
DEVELOPMENT WHATSOEVER. IN FACT SUPERBLEND IS SHOWING POPS FOR
THIS PERIOD AND IF THIS CONSENSUS PERSISTS POPS MAY BE EVENTUALLY
REMOVED WITH SURFACE HIGH FROM BOTH 00Z RUNS TAKING HOLD.
AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS TO THE TAF SITES TODAY. THE
SHOWERS SHOULD ONLY LAST ABOUT 4 TO 6 HOURS...REACHING KMSN BY MID
TO LATE MORNING AND KMKE/KUES/KENW BY EARLY AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS
ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE SHOWERS AS THE LOW LEVELS MOISTEN
UP AND WINDS REMAIN VERY LIGHT. CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE SLOWLY FROM
WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THAT TREND...GIVEN
THE OVERNIGHT TIMING AND CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS...IS RATHER LOW.
MARINE...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD DEVELOP ON SATURDAY AND
LINGER INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE WELL NORTHEAST
OF THE REGION...AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
BRISK WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE LIKELY DURING THIS TIME...WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
HIGH WAVES SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE OPEN WATERS...DUE TO THE OFFSHORE
NATURE OF THE WINDS.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WOOD
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...COLLAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
250 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014
DRY AND MILD WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST ALL OF THE
SHORT TERM (TNGT THRU SAT MRNG). THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO
SLOWLY BUILDING HEIGHTS AND A DOMINANT LARGE-SCALE RIDGE ACROSS
THE CNTRL CONUS. THE MAIN ITEMS OF INTEREST WILL BE GUSTY
SOUTHWEST-WEST WINDS AND RELATIVELY WARM WEATHER.
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGES AND RAP MODEL ANALYSES INDICATED A
150-KT 300-MB JET CROSSING OVER THE PACIFIC NW WITH CONSIDERABLE
MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF THE NWRN CONUS. ALTHOUGH A
THICK PATCH OF CIRRUS MOVED ACROSS THE CWA EARLIER TODAY...THE WATER
VAPOR TRAJECTORY SUGGESTS THE BULK OF THE CIRRUS WILL REMAIN NW OF
THE CWA...ESPECIALLY LATE TNGT AND FRI AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS.
UNTIL THEN...EXPECT SOME PERIODIC DENSE CIRRUS PATCHES AS THE JET
INTERACTS WITH THE MOUNTAINS. BUFKIT TIME-SECTIONS FOR KCYS SUPPORT
THIS AS WELL.
GUSTY SOUTHWEST-WINDS WILL OCCUR ESPECIALLY NEAR RIDGE TOPS TNGT AS
700-MB FLOW IS 30-45 KT FROM THE WEST WITH WEAK COLD-ADVECTION THAT
WILL PROMOTE MIXING. LOOKS TO BE JUST BELOW HIGH WIND WRNG CRITERIA
BUT IT DOES BEAR WATCHING. ALTHOUGH GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO
FRIDAY THEY SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT MUTED AS 700-MB WIND SPEEDS DECREASE
BY 5-10 KT AND THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS.
GIVEN THE UPPER RIDGE AND 700-MB TEMPS OF 7-10C ACROSS THE CWA THE
TEMPS WILL BE 15-20F ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM...AND
APPROACHING RECORD LEVELS ON FRIDAY. THE RH ALSO WILL DROP TO NEAR
15 PERCENT ACROSS THE SERN WY PLAINS ON FRI AFTN. FRI NGT WILL AGAIN
BE QUITE MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014
UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY AS
RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST OF THE CWA DURING THE DAY. HIGHS WILL
BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA DURING THE DAY.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE
SHIFTS FURTHER EAST...ALLOWING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD
FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON
SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR AND WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE...WITH CHANCES SPREADING OVER THE REST OF THE CWA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AS COLDER AIR PUSHES IN SUNDAY NIGHT...SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY OVER AT
LEAST THE SOUTH CENTRAL WY MOUNTAINS.
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A WARMUP POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK.
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1126 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
TONIGHT. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON OVER
MUCH OF SOUTHEAST WY...WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 25 AND 35 KNOTS
EXPECTED.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014
CONTINUED WARM AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS. EXPECT AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES TO FALL
INTO THE MID TO UPPER TEENS EACH AFTERNOON. FORTUNATELY...FUELS
ARE REPORTED AS GREEN FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING WHERE THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. SO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
SHOULD BE MINIMAL. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN CONSIDERABLY FROM
LATE SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY
TRACKS THROUGH THE ROCKIES.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BUNKERS/WFOUNR
LONG TERM...WFOUNR
AVIATION...WFOUNR
FIRE WEATHER...WFOUNR