Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 10/22/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
251 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COOLING TREND WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS LIKELY THIS EVENING ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING AND TEMPERATURES WARMING TO
ABOVE NORMAL BY FRIDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
THE LEADING EDGE OF A BAND OF CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WAS JUST REACHING THE WESTERN EDGE OF
MERCED COUNTY AS AS 230 PM. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS NORCAL
HAVE BEEN LESS THAN 15 KTS. THE HRRR HAD BEEN PROGGING GUSTS TO
NEARLY 30 KTS THIS EVENING IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. THE LATEST RUN HAS BACKED OFF TO GUSTS OF ONLY
AROUND 25 KTS THOUGH...AND KEEPS ANY GUSTS ABOVE 20 KTS NORTH OF
KERN COUNTY. THERE IS STILL A CONCERN THAT ANY SUBSTANTIAL
INCREASE IN WINDS THIS EVENING COULD PRODUCE BLOWING DUST ALONG
THE INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE POSSIBILITY
VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.
HAVE LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN PLACE NEAR YOSEMITE TONIGHT AS
MOST OF THE ENERGY FROM THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTH OF OUR AREA AND
INTO NEVADA. HAVE ALSO KEPT THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT DRIZZLE IN
THE EXTREME SOUTHERN END OF THE VALLEY AND THE NORTH FACING SLOPES FROM
MOUNT PINOS TO TEJON RANCH DUE TO UPSLOPE CLOUDINESS LATE TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING.
LATEST GUIDANCE HAS ALSO BACKED OFF A LITTLE ON THE AMOUNT OF POST
FRONTAL COOLING FOR TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE NOW EXPECTED TO ONLY
FALL ABOUT 3 TO 5 DEG F...WITH MOST OF THE VALLEY IN THE MID 70S
ON TUESDAY.
WEAK RIDGING AFTER THIS SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO A WARMING TREND ACROSS
THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IS
THEN PROGGED BY THE MODEL ENSEMBLES TO MOVE ACROSS CALIFORNIA ON
SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE IN IT BRINGING PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA
REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...
WIND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY FROM
00Z TO 12Z TUESDAY. GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS ARE LIKELY AROUND THE KERN
COUNTY MOUNTAIN PASSES THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY. AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS
ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE WEST SLOPES OF THE SIERRA AND THE NORTH
FACING SLOPES OF THE TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS FROM 06Z TO 18Z TUESDAY.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.
&&
.CERTAINTY...
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS LOW.
THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORDS
SITE DATE HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR
KFAT 10-20 94:1927 56:1941 59:2012 35:1949
KFAT 10-21 93:2003 58:1941 60:1992 34:1949
KFAT 10-22 92:1948 63:2012 64:1982 35:1961
KBFL 10-20 97:1927 60:1910 63:1978 33:1908
KBFL 10-21 94:2003 62:2004 65:1976 32:1906
KBFL 10-22 95:1901 63:1985 65:1982 37:1920
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...MENDENHALL
AVN/FW...DCH
PREV DISCUSSION...99
SYNOPSIS...WP
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SACRAMENTO CA
900 AM PDT Mon Oct 20 2014
.Synopsis...
Frontal system will provide cooler temperatures and precipitation
chances from this morning through tonight. Thunderstorms expected
this afternoon/evening, especially the Sacramento Valley. Another
storm system will cause shower chances mainly for northern areas
from Wednesday into the weekend.
&&
.Updated Discussion...
Light rain has entered western Shasta and Tehama counties this
morning. Redding has had some light rain in the area, but not
quite to the airport yet. This front is a fairly slow mover.
Tracking the back edge of the frontal band, it is moving at about
15 mph. So based on the front edge of the radar returns, rain
should begin by 1000 for Chico and probably not until around noon
for the Sacramento area. The front is weakening as it moves
inland, so not much rain is expected.
Spotters in northern Sac Valley and adjacent foohills...keep your
eyes peeled, please.
As the front tracks eastward, the northern Sacramento will move
into the more unstable post-frontal air. The cold core portion of
the Low is showing some enhanced convection near and just inside
of 130W off NW CA. Skies should clear out across the northern Sac
Valley by early afternoon. BUFKIT NAM shows CAPE of 200-300 by
late afternoon and over 800 in the evening, while the HRRR shows
between 200-600 J/kg. The BUFKIT soundings even look to be
underestimating the max heating surface temperature of 17C. Our
forecast has 21C and the NAM CAPE would be significantly higher
with an adjusted sounding.
JClapp
.Extended Discussion (Friday through Monday)
The next main weather impact will be a large low that develops in
the Gulf of Alaska by Wednesday and impacts our region into the
weekend. Rain chances should nudge into the Coastal Range late
Wednesday night with light rain that will spread farther inland at
times for the rest of the week. For Thursday, rain chances will
stay generally north of Interstate 80. Main change from previous
forecasts is that the models are in better agreement as to our wet
weather outlook for the end of the week. From Friday into
Saturday, that low in the Gulf of Alaska will dig southward and
move into the west coast which should spread chances of rain
across all of our CWA into the San Joaquin valley so have
increased PoPs to reflect this. This trough will push eastward on
Sunday and Monday. There will still be lingering chances of rain,
but they will be diminished in areal coverage and be limited to
areas north of I-80 and mainly across higher terrain. Daytime
highs in the extended period will be fairly consistent at near
seasonal to about 5 degrees below normal. JBB
&&
.Aviation...
Generally VFR conditions today with lowering clouds and stronger
southerly winds as a cold front moves through the area today.
Precipitation and lower clouds over the coastal mountains will
spread inland extending over the northern Sacramento Valley by
around 15 z, bringing local MVFR conditions there. MVFR
conditions with local IFR are possible over the Mountains. ISOLD
TSRA possible this afternoon and evening. EK
&&
.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
1057 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1057 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014
HAVE INCREASED THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
HIGH TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON AFTER SEEING ENHANCED MOISTURE IN THE
WATER VAPOR LOOP...CUMULUS ALREADY BUILDING...AND MONITORING THE
HRRR AND RUC TRENDS FOR PRECIPITATION. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE WE
COULD SEE SOME MOVING EAST OVER THE HIGHER FOOTHILLS...BUT BELIEVE
THIS WILL END ONLY IN GUSTY WINDS. HAVE ALSO INCREASED THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS TOMORROW SLIGHTLY AS MODEL AGREEMENT CONTINUES TO
IMPROVE AND SEEING MOISTURE MOVE UP FROM THE
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 344 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014
A WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE CWA WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS JUST TO THE EAST OF COLORADO AND A SLOW MOVING
CLOSED LOW OVER SERN AZ/SWRN NEW MX. SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE NORTHWARD INTO COLORADO THIS
AFTN. IN THE MOUNTAINS...THE MDLS CONTINUE TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT
QPF THIS AFTN. SYNTHETIC SATELLITE SUGGESTS SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY
IN THE AFTN/ERLY EVENING. FOR THIS REASON WILL KEEP SLGT CHC POPS
THERE...BEST CHC WILL LIKELY BE SOUTH OF I-70. ACROSS THE URBAN
CORRIDOR AND ADJACENT PLAINS...IT WILL AGAIN BE UNSEASONABLY WARM
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S...BREEZY EAST OF INTERSTATE 25 WITH
SSELY WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH THIS AFTN. THE MDLS DO HINT AT SOME
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR SOME POTENTIAL STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT EAST
AND SOUTH OF LIMON LATE TONIGHT. WL LET THE DAY SHIFT MAKE THE
FINAL DETERMINATION ON THIS BEFORE ADDRESSING IT IN THE GRIDS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM NORTHERN NEVADA EARLY TUESDAY
INTO MONTANA TUESDAY NIGHT. IT WILL BE MILD TUESDAY AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO. IT WILL ALSO
BE BREEZY OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT TO SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE SHOWERS WILL MOVE ONTO THE FRONT RANGE AND
EASTERN PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVING BEEN TRENDING NORTH ON
THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. SO WITH THE TRACK BEING WELL NORTH OF
COLORADO...JUST EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR THE MOST PART. MAY BE
SOME OROGRAPHIC LIFT IN THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
SNOW LEVEL WILL FALL TO AROUND 9000 FEET WITH A FEW INCHES POSSIBLE
OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS AND PASSES. THIS IS WHERE THE HIGHEST POPS
WILL BE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS COLORADO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS GOING WEDNESDAY. LOWERED POPS INTO
THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE FOR WEDNESDAY FOR MOST OF EASTERN COLORADO
DUE TO THE SYSTEM BEING FARTHER AWAY FROM COLORADO. HIGHS WILL RUN
10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER ON WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL END QUICK
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN.
FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REBUILD OVER
THE REGION BY FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SOME THURSDAY...BUT THE
WARMEST DAYS LOOK TO BE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES. HIGHS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
WITH READINGS IN THE 70S. NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME
LATE SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS IS WHEN THE NEXT PACIFIC
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1057 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014
VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. SLY WINDS WILL BECOME SSELY
THIS AFTN/EVNG...THEN BACK TO SSWLY AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. COULD SEE
SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS AT KDEN AND KAPA IN THE 21-03Z
WINDOW...WHERE KBJC WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHTER. WINDS WILL LIKELY
STILL BE SLY TUESDAY...BUT LIGHTER SPEEDS. SYNTHETIC SATELLITE
HINTS AT SOME STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT TOWARDS 12Z TUESDAY
MORNING...BUT IT SHOULD STAY WELL TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
KDEN.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KRIEDERMAN
SHORT TERM...COOPER
LONG TERM...MEIER
AVIATION...KRIEDERMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
700 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH LINGERING SHOWERS FRIDAY AS THE STORM SLOWLY
PULLS AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND. MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
7 PM UPDATE...
MID LEVEL CLOUDS SPREADING INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING
ON SCHEDULE. 18Z MODELS AND LATEST HIGH-RES GUIDANCE SUPPORTS
FORECAST OF THICKENING CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WELL
AFTER MIDNIGHT. STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO WHICH AREAS ARE FAVORED
WITH HRRR SHOWING NARROW BAND ACROSS MA/NH AND 18Z NAM MORE
FOCUSED ON RI/SE MA CLOSER TO SURFACE TROUGH.
FORECAST LOWS IN 40S LOOK GOOD AND NO CHANGES MADE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
***NARROW AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY ACROSS EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND***
TUESDAY...
INTERESTING SETUP WITH A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR WEST AND A
SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE INTERACTION OF THE
COLD POOL ALOFT...A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET AND AXIS OF SURFACE
CONVERGENCE MAY LEAD TO SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. INTERESTING THAT THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
ARE SHOWING A NARROW AXIS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN SOMEWHERE NEAR
THE I-95 CORRIDOR. EXACT LOCATION REMAINS UNCERTAIN AND IT COULD
REMAIN OFFSHORE...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH. WE MAY BE DEALING WITH
LOCALIZED NUISANCE POOR DRAINAGE STREET FLOODING IN THIS REGION IF
THIS NARROW AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPS.
FURTHER TO THE WEST ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT BEST FORCING/MOISTURE WILL BE ACROSS
OUR EASTERN ZONES...SO ACTIVITY SHOULD NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD.
AS FOR CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...500 MB TEMPS WILL BE BELOW -20C AND
RESULT IN ELEVATED INSTABILITY. MODEL SOUNDINGS HAVE BEEN
INDICATING MU CAPES ON THE ORDER OF 500 J/KG. HAVE INCLUDED ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST ACROSS SOME OF THE REGION. WHILE WE
CAN/T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION...BEST SHOT WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.
HIGH TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S ACROSS THE
REGION.
TUESDAY NIGHT...
APPEARS THAT THE DEEPER MOISTURE/LIFT TEMPORARILY SHIFTS TO THE
NORTH OF OUR REGION AND INTO NORTHER NEW ENGLAND.
NONETHELESS...CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND LOW PRESSURE WILL STILL RESULT IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AT TIMES. THE ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY BE MOST
WIDESPREAD ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES...CLOSER TO THE BETTER
DYNAMICS AND FORCING. LOW TEMPS WILL ONLY DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S
AND LOWER 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...
CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY MIGRATES
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY AND INTO THE MARITIMES FRIDAY. SHORTWAVE
FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST RACES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES
THIS WEEK AND CROSSES NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THEN
BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEAST USA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HEIGHT CONTOURS ARE
BELOW NORMAL MUCH OF THE WEEK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER
LOW...THEN RECOVER TO NORMAL LEVELS BY SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS.
THIS PATTERN FAVORS A COOL WET MID AND LATE WEEK...THEN DRY AND
SEASONABLE BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE TYPES
OF WEATHER...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING.
THE DAILIES...
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...COASTAL LOW SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL DOMINATE OUR
WEATHER AS IT MOVES UP THE COAST. LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH AND AN
EAST 50-60 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS COASTAL MAINE AND WRAPPING INTO
NH/VT. THIS MAY BRING ENHANCED ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS SOUTHERN NH
AND NORTHERN MASS...WITH WEAKER LIFT FARTHER SOUTH. BY THURSDAY THE
COLD CORE IS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. SO WEDNESDAY IS A TRANSITION FROM
STRATIFORM TO CONVECTIVE...THURSDAY MAINLY CONVECTIVE. SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY BOTH DAYS TO INDICATE A CHANCE OF THUNDER.
FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST.
COLD CORE STILL CLOSE ENOUGH TO PROVIDE CLOUDS AND SOME INSTABILITY.
SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE A DIMINISHING CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SATURDAY...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH
LATER SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT. THE APPROACH OF THIS FRONT MAY
ACTUALLY BE THE NUDGE THAT GETS THE LAST OF THE COLD POOL CLOUDS OUT
OF OUR AREA. THE FRONT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF CLOUDS. THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS IS LESS DEFINED AND SO WE FEATURE JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN SRN NH AND NRN MASS. TEMPS ALOFT SUPPORT DAYTIME
MAX TEMPS IN THE 60S.
SUNDAY-MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH TEMPS
ALOFT WARMER FROM SUNDAY TO MONDAY. TEMPS ALOFT SUPPORT 60S BOTH
DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT
BUT SHOULD NOT BRING LOWER CONDITIONS.
TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO MAINLY
MVFR THRESHOLDS IN MORNING NEAR COAST...BUT BRIEF IFR CIGS/VSBYS
ARE POSSIBLE. SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED WITH AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO POSSIBLE. BULK OF THE FOCUS SHOULD BE ACROSS
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.
TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LOW END MVFR TO PERHAPS IFR
CONDITIONS DOMINATE IN LOW CLOUDS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND FOG
PATCHES. THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE FOUND ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN ZONES.
KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TONIGHT WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON
TUESDAY. LOW PROBABILITY OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ON TUESDAY.
KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TONIGHT WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON
TUESDAY.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...PROLONGED PERIOD OF MIXED MVFR/IFR...WITH MORE
IFR IN RAIN WEDNESDAY AND MORE MVFR IN SHOWERS THURSDAY. CHANCE OF
THUNDER BOTH DAYS. CHANCE OF 30 KNOT EAST-NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS
WEDNESDAY MORNING ALONG THE OUTER CAPE AND MASSACHUSETTS NORTH SHORE
AREAS.
FRIDAY-SATURDAY...VFR. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS ON
FRIDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN SOUTHERN NH AND EASTERN MASS.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
FURTHER EAST OF THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS. HOWEVER...WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SCA THRESHOLDS.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE WATERS WILL COMBINED WITH A 1030 MB HIGH
OVER EASTERN CANADA. EASTERLY WINDS ON TUESDAY WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT
TO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS.
PRETTY MUCH A LOCK THAT SCA SEAS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS OUR EASTERN AND
PARTICULARLY OUR NORTHERN OUTER-WATERS TUE AFTERNOON INTO TUE NIGHT.
IN FACT...BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY SEAS MAY BE APPROACHING 10 FEET
ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN WATERS ALONG WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS. SCA
HEADLINES POSTED FOR THIS REGION.
WE MAY ALSO SEE SOME 5 FOOT SEAS DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS
TOWARDS 12Z WEDNESDAY...BUT ITS TOO MARGINAL FOR LATE 3RD PERIOD SCA
HEADLINES IN THIS REGION.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...LOW LEVEL EAST-NORTHEAST JET WILL BE FEEDING
INTO THE MAINE MID-COAST WEDNESDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG SURFACE
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF OUR WATERS. WINDS OF 25-30 KNOTS MAY
EXTEND AS FAR SOUTH AS THE MERRIMACK RIVER AND POSSIBLY CAPE ANN.
WINDS DIMINISH AND BECOME VARIABLE THURSDAY AS THE COASTAL LOW MOVES
ACROSS THE WATERS. SEAS WEDNESDAY REACH 5 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS
WITH 8 TO 10 FEET POSSIBLE FROM CAPE ANN TO MERRIMACK RIVER. BY
THURSDAY THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW WILL EXPAND THE AREA OF 8
TO 10 FOOT SEAS ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE EASTERN WATERS AND SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS.
FRIDAY... AS THE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF TOWARD THE
MARITIMES...WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS.
WITH THE SHIFTING OF THE WIND DIRECTION TO OFFSHORE...WE EXPECT SEAS
TO DIMINISH. BUT 5 FOOT SEAS MAY LINGER ON THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH
THE DAY.
SATURDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
FOR ANZ250-254.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
FOR ANZ251.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/FRANK
NEAR TERM...WTB/JWD
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...WTB/FRANK/JWD
MARINE...WTB/FRANK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
330 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
19Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. NORTHERN STREAM FLOW
ARRIVES OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST AND
QUICKLY RIDGES WELL NORTH THROUGH THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. THE FLOW
THEN DIVES BACK TO THE SOUTH INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES
REGION. A POTENT SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW DROPPING OUT OF
THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL ACT TO EVEN FURTHER AMPLIFY THE NORTHERN
STREAM AS IT CARVES OUT A DEEP TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY
TUESDAY MORNING. THE FLOW IS CURRENTLY ZONAL IN NATURE OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST/FLORIDA PENINSULA...BUT WILL BECOME MORE
CYCLONIC IN NATURE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE AMPLIFYING
EASTERN TROUGH TAKES FORM.
THE THE MORNING 20/12Z KTBW SOUNDING PROFILE SHOWED THE COLUMN IS
STILL VERY DRY. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS THROUGH A GOOD CHUNK OF THE
MID-LEVELS ARE RUNNING 35C...TO AS MUCH AS 50C...WHICH IS GOOD
REASON TO WHY THE CUMULUS FIELD IS SHALLOW TODAY. THE CALCULATED PW
VALUE WAS 0.69" WHICH IS GETTING DOWN TOWARD 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
BELOW CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE MIDDLE OF OCTOBER. SO...YA...ITS DRY.
AT THE SURFACE...OUR REGION CURRENTLY RESIDES IN A SYNOPTIC EASTERLY
FLOW BETWEEN A 1020MB RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE CAROLINA
COAST...AND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO/BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS RELAXED SOMEWHAT
THROUGH THE DAY AS THE HIGH CENTER TO OUR NORTH DRIFTS FURTHER EAST
INTO THE ATLANTIC. THE WEAKENING GRADIENT COMBINED WITH STRONG
TERRESTRIAL HEATING HAS ALLOW A FEEBLE SEA-BREEZE CIRCULATION...WITH
MANY COASTAL WINDS NOW FLIPPING ONSHORE.
&&
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...QUIET AND BENIGN FORECAST AND
TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER. A DRY ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN AND VERY LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFTING MECHANISMS KEEPING THE FORECAST
RAIN FREE. WITH PLENTY OF INSOLATION...TEMPERATURES HAVE MIXED OUT
TO THE LOWER/MIDDLE 80S FROM I-4 NORTHWARD AND MIDDLE/UPPER 80S
FURTHER SOUTH. THESE TEMPERATURES REPRESENT HIGHS A FEW DEGREES
"ABOVE NORMAL" FOR OCTOBER 20TH. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SEEN AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST THE REMAINDER OF THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NATURE COAST WHERE NEARSHORE SATELLITE
DERIVED SST VALUES HAVE COOLED INTO THE UPPER 70S.
AS THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS OVER THE EASTERN GULF/FL PENINSULA TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING...WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE A SIGNIFICANT AND DEEP
LAYER SURGE OF MOISTURE RETURN UP INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FL
PENINSULA. DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY WITHIN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
WILL BE WATCHING A DECENT UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK CROSSING THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. THE RESULTING DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT TO
THE SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH A BROAD ZONE OF Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENT WILL BECOME COINCIDENT WITHIN THE REGION OF BEST MOISTURE
RETURN OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA TO SUPPORT SHOWER
CHANCES ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES BY MIDDAY TUESDAY (PERHAPS A BIT
EARLIER). NOW...JUST HOW FAR NORTH THE SHOWERS GET WILL BE
DETERMINED BY THE EXTENT OF MOISTURE RETURN...SINCE THE SYNOPTIC
LIFTING MECHANISMS WILL CERTAINLY EXIST OVER MUCH OF THE REGION.
HOWEVER...ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCES
FOR ADEQUATE COLUMN MOISTURE SHOULD EXIST SOUTH OF A LINE FROM SAY
SARASOTA TO SEBRING...WITH HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES DOWN TOWARD FORT
MYERS AND SOUTHWARD. DID NOT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS FROM
THE INHERITED FORECAST THIS TIME AROUND...OTHER THAN TO RAISE POPS
ANOTHER 10% OR SO DOWN TOWARD CHARLOTTE/LEE COUNTIES. WENT BACK IN
FORTH WITH MENTIONING "LIKELY" RAIN CHANCES THIS FAR SOUTH...BUT
SOME UNCERTAINLY IN THE DEGREE OF MOISTURE RETURN KEPT RAIN CHANCES
CAPPED AT 50%. EVEN IF RAIN CHANCES NEED TO BE RAISED
FURTHER...ACCUMULATIONS STILL LOOK TO BE LIGHT AS NONE OF THE
LIFTING MECHANISMS ARE PARTICULARLY STRONG...JUST SIMPLY ADDITIVE
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RETURNING SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST. ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR...HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST RAIN FREE ONCE AGAIN AS
NO GUIDANCE MEMBER SUGGESTS THE MOISTURE WILL REACH THIS FAR NORTH.
THESE NORTHERN ZONES WILL ALSO SEE THE MOST SUNSHINE/INSOLATION AS
WELL...WITH A DEEPER/THICKER CLOUD CANOPY MOVING ASHORE ALONG THE
SUNCOAST.
&&
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT-MONDAY)...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT
TO THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIODS.
THAT SAID...GIVEN THE RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY ISSUES AND LACK OF
A STRONG MODEL CONSENSUS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...CONFIDENCE
REMAINS BELOW AVERAGE PARTICULARLY IN THE LATTER PORTION OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD.
MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A DEEP UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH CLOSING OFF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH THIS FEATURE THEN LIFTING INTO THE NEW
ENGLAND STATES BY FRIDAY EVENING. AS THIS OCCURS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
WILL GIVE WAY TO WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ON FRIDAY...WITH THIS POSITIVE TILTED
UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AND INTO THE PENINSULA ON
SATURDAY AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS THE ONE THAT THE MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED
CAPTURING OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z
ECMWF HAVE TRENDED VERY CLOSELY TOGETHER WITH THEIR HANDLING OF
THIS FEATURE...LEADING TO HIGHER ALBEIT STILL BELOW AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE.
AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM BAY OF
CAMPECHE INTO THE FLORIDA STRAIGHTS WILL WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. THE MAIN FEATURE THE MODELS ARE LATCHING
ONTO ALONG THIS TROUGH...IS THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE WHICH WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST
GULF OF MEXICO AND NORTHWEST CARRIBEAN BY FRIDAY EVENING. THIS
FEATURE WILL THEN SHIFT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FLORIDA
STRAIGHTS INTO THE VICINITY OF THE BAHAMAS BY SATURDAY EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO SLOWLY BUILD FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AS FOR FORECAST DETAILS...WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE SLIGHT
CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST PRIMARILY SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. IT CERTAINLY DOESN/T APPEAR TO BE A
BIG RAIN MAKER FOR THIS PORTION OF THE STATE AS THE DEEPEST MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAIGHTS. BY SATURDAY NIGHT...THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL HAVE SHIFTED OVER THE BAHAMAS IF THE 00Z
GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS HAVE TRENDED IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION...SO WILL
KEEP THE FORECAST OPTIMISTIC AND RAIN FREE FOR THE END OF THE
WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
CONDITIONS ARE PREVAILING VFR ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON UNDER
A FEW-SCT CUMULUS FIELD. ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON FROM KPGD SOUTH TO KFMY/KRSW..THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS. WINDS DIRECTIONS WILL BECOME VARIABLE AT TIMES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND TRIES TO MIGRATE INLAND.
EXPECTING GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
THE CURRENT MILD WEATHER WILL BE CHANGING OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO
AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST AND BEGIN TO AFFECT SOUTH FLORIDA. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH ON TUESDAY AND NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE STARTING THURSDAY AND
REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE
FLORIDA STRAITS. WINDS AND SEAS HIGHER IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS AND
WINDS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA AT TIMES LATER THIS
WEEK.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN A GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN BETWEEN
LO PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND ANOTHER AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A FEW SHOWERS
WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST FOR ZONES MAINLY SOUTH OF THE I-4
CORRIDOR BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO BE LIGHT. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND NO SIGNIFICANT
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED.
FOG POTENTIAL...SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG IS POSSIBLE TOWARD SUNRISE
THE NEXT TWO MORNING...HOWEVER NO SIGNIFICANT OR WIDESPREAD FOG IS
EXPECTED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 69 85 69 84 / 0 10 10 20
FMY 70 85 71 85 / 10 50 30 40
GIF 67 86 68 83 / 0 10 10 10
SRQ 67 84 68 85 / 0 20 20 20
BKV 59 86 59 84 / 0 10 10 10
SPG 72 84 72 84 / 0 10 10 20
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WX...MROCZKA
LONG TERM...JELSEMA
MARINE...DOUGHERTY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
1035 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014
.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT...REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED ALONG AND TO THE
ESE OF KXMR...THOUGH IN THE LAST FEW HOURS SEEMS TO BE STARTING ITS
ADVERTISED NWD PIVOT (INTERESTING TO SEE THE FRONTOLYTIC "SHEDDING"
OF VORTICITY ALONG IT IN VIS IMAGERY THIS MORNING). OVERNIGHT SHRA
AND SPRINKLES OVER VOLUSIA/NRN BREVARD COS SAVE FOR A FEW SMALLER
CELLS JUST OFFSHORE MOSQUITO LAGOON-EDGEWATER. SOME CLOUDS STILL
LINGERING IN THIS AREA...OTHERWISE SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT EASTERLY
WINDS FOR THE MOST PART...WITH 14Z TEMPS IN THE U70S AREAWIDE.
MORNING RAOBS FROM BOTH JAX/XMR SHOW THE REMNANT FRONTAL MOISTURE
BELOW H75...WHILE SHALLOWER/MORE SPARSE MOISTURE EXISTS TO BOTH THE
SOUTH (MFL) AND WEST (TBW).
REST OF TODAY....FEW LINGERING SPRINKLES ALONG COASTAL VOLUSIA WILL
LIFT NORTH AND PULL OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES WITH TEMPS WARMING TO THE U80S INLAND...AND M80S CLOSER TO
THE COAST.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR. SOME BKN VFR CIGS BKN040-060 TIX-DAB THROUGH ABOUT
16Z-17Z.
&&
.MARINE...CURRENT BUOY AND C-MAN OBS SHOW SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 4FT
OFFSHORE UNDER A GENTLE TO MODERATE ONSHORE WIND...VEERING FROM E TO
ESE-SE. 3-4FT SEAS LIKELY FALLING BACK FURTHER TO ~3FT BY TONIGHT.
&&
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX....WIMMER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014/
TONIGHT...DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER LAND TONIGHT WITH A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE ATLANTIC. LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 60S...WITH
A FEW UPPER 60S ALONG THE SPACE AND TREASURE COASTS.
TUE...A MID LAYER TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST COAST AND MOISTURE
RETURNING FROM THE SOUTH WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS FROM SRN OSCEOLA/SRN BREVARD SOUTH TO
OKEECHOBEE COUNTY AND THE TREASURE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON. THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE RETURN WILL EXIST FROM OKEECHOBEE COUNTY TO MARTIN
AND ST LUCIE COUNTIES WHERE ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORMS WILL BE
FAVORED. FURTHER NORTH EXTENT OF DEEPER MOISTURE RETURN MAKES
CONVECTIVE PROBABILITIES SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. WILL GO WITH A SLGT CHC
OF AFTERNOON STORMS WITH SOME DYNAMIC SUPPORT WITH THE RR QUAD OF AN
80 KT JET AND 12KM NAM SHOWS SOME DISCRETE CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN
THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BE IN THE MIDDLE 80S IN
THE PREFRONTAL AIRMASS.
TUE NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL FL AND PUSH TWD
SRN SECTIONS WITH A DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO NRN LAKE AND VOLUSIA
COUNTIES AND DEEP MOISTURE REMAINING ACROSS OKEECHOBEE COUNTY AND
THE TREASURE COAST. WILL KEEP EVENING CONVECTIVE CHANCES CONFINED TO
SRN AREAS THROUGH LATE EVENING. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
WED-THU...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TWD THE SE STATES AS A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY PUSHES ACROSS THE SRN COUNTIES WED TWD LAKE
OKEECHOBEE ON THU. NORTHERLY LOW LVL FLOW WILL VEER TO THE NE BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY WITH DEEP DRYING ACROSS NRN SECTIONS. CLOSER TO THE
SLOW MOVING FRONT DEEP MOISTURE WILL RESIDE AND WILL KEEP LOW
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAINLY ACROSS SRN SECTIONS FOR MID WEEK.
00Z GFS INDICATES TROPICAL DISTURBANCE NEAR THE YUCATAN WILL BEGIN
TO EJECT EASTWARD BY THU AFTN. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
FRI-SAT...ON FRIDAY THE MAIN CLOSED LOW AND TROUGH ACROSS THE NE
STATES WILL BEGIN TO PUSH OFFSHORE AS ANOTHER S/W ON ITS BACK SIDE
DROPS SE TWD THE CAROLINAS. 00Z GFS/ECMWF INDICATES SOME SFC LOW
DEVELOPMENT WITH THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES EAST OF THE YUCATAN WITH
CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THAT THE LOW TRACK WILL BE WELL TO
OUR SOUTH. EVEN WITH THIS SCENARIO MOISTURE MAY WRAP AROUND THE NW
SIDE OF THE ELONGATED DEEP MOISTURE AREA ACROSS FAR S FL IN THE
BAHAMAS AS THE LOW TRACKS E OR ENE. WILL KEEP HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES
IN THE SCATTERED RANGE ACROSS THE FAR SRN AREAS WHERE SOME ATLC
SHOWERS WILL MOVE ONSHORE WITH E AND THEN NE TO THE NORTH OF ANY
POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT AREA. FOR NRN AREAS...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS
FORECAST AT THIS TIME...THOUGH THIS COULD CHANGE SOME WITH LATER
FORECASTS. SEE LATEST 5 DAY GRAPHICAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FROM
NHC FOR THE LATEST INFO ON THIS SYSTEM.
SUN-MON...00Z GFS/ECMWF INDICATES ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE ARE AND
DEEP MOISTURE WILL PUSH THROUGH THE BAHAMAS AND AWAY FROM CENTRAL
FL. NE FLOW WILL VEER TO ONSHORE WITH ONLY SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCES
EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION...SPOTTY MVFR MIFG/BR THIS MORNING THROUGH 12Z IN ALL
LOCATIONS EXCEPT EAST OF KTIX-KDED-KOMN. LINE OF ISOLD-WDLY SCT
-SHRA FROM ATLC CROSSING COAST AFFECTING AREAS EAST OF KTIX-KDED
-KOMN THROUGH 16Z WITH TEMPO MVFR CIGS FL020-030. OTHERWISE...
PREVAILING VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY LOCATED AROUND CAPE
CANAVERAL WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION TODAY. FOR THE WATERS
NORTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL...EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS 10-15KTS BECOMING
SOUTHEAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. SOUTH OF CAPE
CANAVERAL...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS 5-10KTS. SOUTH WINDS 10-15KTS OVER
ALL THE WATERS OVERNIGHT BECOMING WEST-SOUTHWEST TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS
THE FRONT MOVES BACK SOUTH.
SEAS 2-3FT NEARSHORE AND 3-4FT OFFSHORE WITH UP TO 5FT OVER THE GULF
STREAM. DOMINANT PERIODS 9-11SEC...WITH 6-7SEC OVER GULF STREAM.
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH A FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE WATERS WED INTO WED NIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE N
TO NE INTO LATE WEEK WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AT LEAST SCEC LEVELS BY
THU INTO FRIDAY AS WINDS INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 63 85 65 81 / 10 10 10 10
MCO 66 86 67 84 / 10 10 10 10
MLB 67 84 69 84 / 10 20 10 20
VRB 66 85 68 84 / 10 20 20 20
LEE 67 86 66 84 / 10 10 10 10
SFB 65 86 67 85 / 10 10 10 10
ORL 67 86 68 84 / 10 10 10 10
FPR 66 85 68 84 / 10 20 20 30
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
845 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014
.UPDATE (REST OF TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
13Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. NORTHERN STREAM FLOW
ARRIVES OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST AND
QUICKLY RIDGES WELL NORTH THROUGH THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. THE FLOW
THEN DIVES BACK TO THE SOUTH INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES
REGION. A POTENT SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW DROPPING OUT OF
THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL ACT TO EVEN FURTHER AMPLIFY THE NORTHERN
STREAM AS IT CARVES OUT A DEEP TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY
THIS TIME TOMORROW. THE FLOW IS CURRENTLY MORE ZONAL IN NATURE OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST/FLORIDA PENINSULA...BUT WILL BECOME MORE
CYCLONIC IN NATURE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE AMPLIFYING
EASTERN TROUGH TAKES FORM.
TAKING A PEAK AT THE MORNING 20/12Z KTBW SOUNDING PROFILE...THE
COLUMN IS STILL VERY DRY. FAIRLY OBVIOUS WHY OUR SKIES ARE MOSTLY
CLEAR THIS MORNING. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS THROUGH A GOOD CHUNK OF THE
MID-LEVELS ARE RUNNING 35C...TO AS MUCH AS 50C. THE CALCULATED PW
VALUE WAS 0.69" WHICH IS GETTING DOWN TOWARD 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
BELOW CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE MIDDLE OF OCTOBER. SO...YA...ITS DRY.
AT THE SURFACE...OUR REGION CURRENTLY RESIDES IN A SYNOPTIC EASTERLY
FLOW BETWEEN A 1020MB RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE CAROLINA
COAST...AND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO/BAY OF CAMPECHE. ONE CAN MAKE AN ARGUMENT FOR A SUBTLE
BOUNDARY FEATURE/WARM FRONT SOMEWHERE NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE I-4
CORRIDOR. THIS BOUNDARY REALLY IS JUST A SURFACE DEWPOINT
GRADIENT...AND SHOULD TEND TO WASH OUT THROUGH THE DAY. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ALSO LOOKS AS THOUGH IT WILL RELAX SOMEWHAT THROUGH TODAY
AS THE LOW REMAIN IN PLACE...AND THE HIGH CENTER DRIFTS FURTHER EAST
INTO THE ATLANTIC. THE WEAKENING GRADIENT SHOULD ALLOW AT LEAST A
FEEBLE SEA-BREEZE CIRCULATION TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND TURN
OUR WINDS ONSHORE AT THE BEACHES.
REST OF TODAY...ANOTHER QUIET AND BENIGN FORECAST AND TERMS OF
SENSIBLE WEATHER. A DRY ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN AND VERY LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFTING MECHANISMS WILL KEEP THE FORECAST RAIN
FREE. WITH PLENTY OF INSOLATION THROUGH THE DAY...AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MIX OUT TO THE LOWER/MIDDLE 80S FROM I-4
NORTHWARD AND MIDDLE/UPPER 80S FURTHER SOUTH. THESE TEMPERATURES
REPRESENT HIGHS A FEW DEGREES "ABOVE NORMAL" FOR OCTOBER 20TH.
LIKELY TO SEE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST
ONCE THE WIND SHIFTS ONSHORE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NATURE COAST
WHERE NEARSHORE SATELLITE DERIVED SST VALUES HAVE COOLED INTO THE
UPPER 70S.
AS THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS OVER THE EASTERN GULF/FL PENINSULA TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING...WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE A SIGNIFICANT AND DEEP
LAYER SURGE OF MOISTURE RETURN UP INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FL
PENINSULA. DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY WITHIN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
WILL BE WATCHING A DECENT UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK CROSSING THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. THE RESULTING DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT TO
THE SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH A BROAD ZONE OF Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENT WILL BECOME COINCIDENT WITHIN THE REGION OF BEST MOISTURE
RETURN OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA TO SUPPORT SHOWER
CHANCES ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. NOW...JUST
HOW FAR NORTH THE SHOWERS GET WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE EXTENT OF
MOISTURE RETURN...SINCE THE SYNOPTIC LIFTING MECHANISMS WILL
CERTAINLY EXIST OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...ENSEMBLE
CONSENSUS WOULD SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCES FOR ADEQUATE COLUMN
MOISTURE SHOULD EXIST SOUTH OF A LINE FROM SAY SARASOTA TO
SEBRING...WITH HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES DOWN TOWARD FORT MYERS AND
SOUTHWARD. INHERITED FORECAST HAS CHANCE 30-40% POPS FOR THESE FAR
SOUTHERN ZONES TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WILL EVALUATE THE 12Z GUIDANCE FOR
THE NEXT FORECAST PACKAGE...BUT IF THE GUIDANCE DOES NOT DEVIATE
MUCH WITH THIS NEXT RUN...RAIN CHANCES MAY NEED TO BE RAISED A BIT
DOWN SOUTH. EVEN IF RAIN CHANCES ARE RAISED...ACCUMULATIONS STILL
LOOK TO BE LIGHT AS NONE OF THE LIFTING MECHANISMS ARE PARTICULARLY
STRONG...JUST SIMPLY ADDITIVE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RETURNING SHOWERS TO
THE FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...
CONDITIONS ARE PREVAILING VFR ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. WAS A
BIT OF PATCHY FOG AROUND SUNRISE...BUT THESE PATCHES ARE QUICKLY
LIFTING WITH THE ONSET OF DIURNAL HEATING. THE REST OF THE TAF
PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS. WINDS DIRECTIONS
WILL BECOME VARIABLE AT TIMES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPS AND TRIES TO MIGRATE INLAND. EXPECTING GENERALLY 10
KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 15 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY...EXCEPT FOR ALONG THE COASTLINE WHERE A SEA BREEZE WILL SET UP
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL THEN DECREASE THIS EVENING
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. WITH THE LIGHTER WINDS...SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LESS THAN 2 FEET UNTIL MID WEEK WHEN THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND A LOW
PRESSURE CENTER MOVING THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS. WINDS WILL BE
OUT OF A NORTHEAST DIRECTION AND MAY INCREASE TO NEAR SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA...DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO
OUR SOUTH THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATER PORTION OF THE WEEK. THE
FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH TODAY BUT RAIN CHANCES INCREASE FOR
THE SOUTHERN WATERS STARTING TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 86 70 85 69 / 0 0 10 10
FMY 88 70 84 71 / 0 10 40 30
GIF 86 69 85 68 / 0 0 20 10
SRQ 85 67 83 68 / 0 10 20 20
BKV 87 59 85 59 / 0 0 10 10
SPG 85 72 84 72 / 0 0 10 10
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE/AVIATION...MROCZKA
MARINE...WYNN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
354 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014
.DISCUSSION...
TODAY-TONIGHT...ONGOING THIN LINE OF SHOWERS STREAMING FROM THE
ATLANTIC INTO THE COAST IS APPROXIMATELY MARKING THE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS MORNING.
ACTIVITY HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT ALONG A ESE-WNW ORIENTED LINE
FROM OVER THE ATLANTIC INTO THE CAPE AND ACROSS SOUTHERN VOLUSIA
COUNTY.
THIS BOUNDARY HAS ALREADY LIFTED NORTHWARDS AND BECOME MORE N-S
ORIENTED THAN LAST EVENING. THE TREND WILL CONTINUE TO BE FOR THIS
BAND OF SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARDS ACROSS VOLUSIA COUNTY
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH WITH
MOST OF THE SHOWERS EVENTUALLY REMAINING OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC AS
LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
BOUNDARY. WILL KEEP ISOLD-SCT LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST ALONG
THE NORTH BREVARD AND VOLUSIA COASTS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH
A FEW REACHING INTO INTERIOR VOLUSIA COUNTY.
OUTSIDE OF THIS ACTIVITY...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY
UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL REACH
INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S OVER THE INTERIOR AND LOW 80S ALONG THE
COAST.
DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER LAND TONIGHT WITH A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS OVER THE ATLANTIC. LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 60S...WITH A FEW
UPPER 60S ALONG THE SPACE AND TREASURE COASTS.
TUE...A MID LAYER TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST COAST AND MOISTURE
RETURNING FROM THE SOUTH WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS FROM SRN OSCEOLA/SRN BREVARD SOUTH TO
OKEECHOBEE COUNTY AND THE TREASURE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON. THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE RETURN WILL EXIST FROM OKEECHOBEE COUNTY TO MARTIN
AND ST LUCIE COUNTIES WHERE ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORMS WILL BE
FAVORED. FURTHER NORTH EXTENT OF DEEPER MOISTURE RETURN MAKES
CONVECTIVE PROBABILITIES SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. WILL GO WITH A SLGT CHC
OF AFTERNOON STORMS WITH SOME DYNAMIC SUPPORT WITH THE RR QUAD OF AN
80 KT JET AND 12KM NAM SHOWS SOME DISCRETE CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN
THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BE IN THE MIDDLE 80S IN
THE PREFRONTAL AIRMASS.
TUE NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL FL AND PUSH TWD
SRN SECTIONS WITH A DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO NRN LAKE AND VOLUSIA
COUNTIES AND DEEP MOISTURE REMAINING ACROSS OKEECHOBEE COUNTY AND
THE TREASURE COAST. WILL KEEP EVENING CONVECTIVE CHANCES CONFINED TO
SRN AREAS THROUGH LATE EVENING. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
WED-THU...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TWD THE SE STATES AS A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY PUSHES ACROSS THE SRN COUNTIES WED TWD LAKE
OKEECHOBEE ON THU. NORTHERLY LOW LVL FLOW WILL VEER TO THE NE BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY WITH DEEP DRYING ACROSS NRN SECTIONS. CLOSER TO THE
SLOW MOVING FRONT DEEP MOISTURE WILL RESIDE AND WILL KEEP LOW
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAINLY ACROSS SRN SECTIONS FOR MID WEEK.
00Z GFS INDICATES TROPICAL DISTURBANCE NEAR THE YUCATAN WILL BEGIN
TO EJECT EASTWARD BY THU AFTN. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
FRI-SAT...ON FRIDAY THE MAIN CLOSED LOW AND TROUGH ACROSS THE NE
STATES WILL BEGIN TO PUSH OFFSHORE AS ANOTHER S/W ON ITS BACK SIDE
DROPS SE TWD THE CAROLINAS. 00Z GFS/ECMWF INDICATES SOME SFC LOW
DEVELOPMENT WITH THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES EAST OF THE YUCATAN WITH
CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THAT THE LOW TRACK WILL BE WELL TO
OUR SOUTH. EVEN WITH THIS SCENARIO MOISTURE MAY WRAP AROUND THE NW
SIDE OF THE ELONGATED DEEP MOISTURE AREA ACROSS FAR S FL IN THE
BAHAMAS AS THE LOW TRACKS E OR ENE. WILL KEEP HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES
IN THE SCATTERED RANGE ACROSS THE FAR SRN AREAS WHERE SOME ATLC
SHOWERS WILL MOVE ONSHORE WITH E AND THEN NE TO THE NORTH OF ANY
POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT AREA. FOR NRN AREAS...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS
FORECAST AT THIS TIME...THOUGH THIS COULD CHANGE SOME WITH LATER
FORECASTS. SEE LATEST 5 DAY GRAPHICAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FROM
NHC FOR THE LATEST INFO ON THIS SYSTEM.
SUN-MON...00Z GFS/ECMWF INDICATES ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE ARE AND
DEEP MOISTURE WILL PUSH THROUGH THE BAHAMAS AND AWAY FROM CENTRAL
FL. NE FLOW WILL VEER TO ONSHORE WITH ONLY SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCES
EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION...SPOTTY MVFR MIFG/BR THIS MORNING THROUGH 12Z IN ALL
LOCATIONS EXCEPT EAST OF KTIX-KDED-OMN. LINE OF ISOLD-WDLY SCT -SHRA
FROM ATLC CROSSING COAST AFFECTING AREAS EAST OF KTIX-KDED-KOMN
THROUGH 16Z WITH TEMPO MVFR CIGS FL020-030. OTHERWISE...PREVAILING
VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY LOCATED AROUND CAPE
CANAVERAL WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION TODAY. FOR THE WATERS
NORTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL...EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS 10-15KTS BECOMING
SOUTHEAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. SOUTH OF CAPE
CANAVERAL...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS 5-10KTS. SOUTH WINDS 10-15KTS OVER
ALL THE WATERS OVERNIGHT BECOMING WEST-SOUTHWEST TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS
THE FRONT MOVES BACK SOUTH.
SEAS 2-3FT NEARSHORE AND 3-4FT OFFSHORE WITH UP TO 5FT OVER THE GULF
STREAM. DOMINANT PERIODS 9-11SEC...WITH 6-7SEC OVER GULF STREAM.
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH A FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE WATERS WED INTO WED NIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE N
TO NE INTO LATE WEEK WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AT LEAST SCEC LEVELS BY
THU INTO FRIDAY AS WINDS INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 63 85 65 81 / 10 10 10 10
MCO 66 86 67 84 / 10 10 10 10
MLB 67 84 69 84 / 10 20 10 20
VRB 66 85 68 84 / 10 20 20 20
LEE 67 86 66 84 / 10 10 10 10
SFB 65 86 67 85 / 10 10 10 10
ORL 67 86 68 84 / 10 10 10 10
FPR 66 85 68 84 / 10 20 20 30
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...MOSES
LONG TERM....VOLKMER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
939 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014
.DISCUSSION...
749 PM CDT
FOR AN EVENING UPDATE HAVE HELD ON TO FORECAST CLOUD COVER LONGER
TONIGHT...NAMELY FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
CHICAGO METRO AND SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FROM THERE.
SURFACE RIDGING IS BUILDING SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING INTO NORTHERN
ILLINOIS AND WIND SPEEDS HAVE COME DOWN QUITE A BIT OUTSIDE OF THE
IMMEDIATE LAKE SHORE. SUBSIDENCE ALOFT IS CONTINUING AS WELL PER
WATER VAPOR AND DIAGNOSTIC MODEL SOUNDINGS...BUT CLOUDS HAVE
SLOWED THEIR RATE OF DIMINISHING...POSSIBLY DUE TO NO MORE CLOUD
TOP WARMING FROM THE SUN.
WHILE THE CLOUD LAYER IS VERY THIN IN DEPTH AS INDICATED BY
REGIONAL AMDAR DATA...FORESEE CLOUDS HANGING ON A WHILE LONGER
WITH NIGHTFALL. THE LOCAL 8KM ARW...AND RAP TO SOME DEGREE...INDICATE
LITTLE MOVEMENT IN THE MOST SOLID SATURATION ALONG AND EAST OF
INTERSTATE 55 THROUGH MIDNIGHT...AND THEN AS CLOUD-BEARING FLOW
TURNS EASTERLY THE MOISTURE ADVECTS WITH IT AND GRADUALLY THINS.
THIS WAS GENERALLY DEPICTED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT JUST
HAVE SHIFTED BACK IN TIMING SEVERAL HOURS.
MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES TO BETTER FIT THIS
REASONING AND THAT DID LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN MIN TEMPS IN A FEW
PLACES...BUT OTHERWISE NO CHANGES MADE.
MTF
//PREV DISCUSSION...
309 PM CDT
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOCUS ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND TIMING
WITH A COUPLE OF SYSTEMS WHICH WILL AFFECT THE REGION THURSDAY AND
NEXT MONDAY. ALSO...IT APPEARS THAT SOME 70 DEGREE TEMPERATURES ARE
POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AS WELL AS
ON MONDAY.
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A STRONG MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WHICH HAD DUG SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY IS NOW EXITING
THE AREA ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE SOUTHEAST. SUBSIDENCE IN THE
WAKE OF THIS FEATURE WAS EVIDENT BOTH IN RISING SURFACE PRESSURE
ACROSS THE CWA...AND IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AS EXTENSIVE AREA
OF STRATOCU ACROSS THE REGION ERODES FROM THE NORTH ACROSS WI/MI AND
LAKE MICHIGAN. EARLIER LAKE-INDUCED SHOWERS HAVE WEAKENED AND FADED
AS EXPECTED DUE TO LOWERING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND ASSOCIATED
WARMING ALOFT. CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN
COVERAGE INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH PERHAPS JUST SOME PATCHY THIN
SHALLOW STRATOCU LINGERING OFF THE LAKE BY LATE EVENING. LOOKING AT
THE BIGGER PICTURE...HIGH-AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE ANALYZED OVER THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE NATION WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND WESTERN/NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING...MAINTAINING SUBSIDENCE WHICH SHOULD FURTHER ERODE
LINGERING CLOUDS AND ALLOW SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WITH CLEARING SKIES AND
DECREASING WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS TONIGHT...
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP OFF INTO THE 30S IN MANY AREAS AWAY FROM
THE IMMEDIATE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE AND CORE OF CHICAGO. LATE NIGHT
MINS IN THE MID 30S AWAY FROM THE METRO AREA WILL LIKELY ALLOW AREAS
OF FROST TO DEVELOP WHERE WINDS DECOUPLE BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE.
UPPER AND LOW LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES REMAIN OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY ALLOWING PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE...THOUGH WITH ONLY MODEST
WARMING DUE TO EASTERLY WIND COMPONENT OFF LAKE AND COOLER UPSTREAM
AIR MASS. A BLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE APPEARS REASONABLE BASED ON RAW
MODEL LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS...WITH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON MAXES
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S ALONG THE LAKE TO THE UPPER 50S
ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN/SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA. ATTENTION THEN
TURNS BACK TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS A WELL-DEFINED
SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND
DAKOTAS BEFORE APPROACHING THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. HEIGHT/PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST NUDGES THE
SURFACE RIDGE AWAY TO OUR EAST AND INDUCES INCREASING
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH
OVERNIGHT. CLEAR-PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
LIKELY ALLOW FOR QUICK DECOUPLING OF BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS EARLY
WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE 30S AGAIN IN OUTLYING
AREAS...THOUGH SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS AND THE INCREASE IN
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL LIKELY LIMIT FROST SOMEWHAT.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE UPPER MIDWEST SHORT WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY...WITH THE BEST ORGANIZED DEEP LIFT
GENERALLY NORTH OF THE WFO CHICAGO CWA. THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
DOES SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA LATER IN THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT HOWEVER...
THOUGH WITH MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE GULF INITIALLY BLOCKED BY THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WHICH EXTENDS SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
ARKLATEX REGION FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THUS MOISTURE RETURN IS NOT
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM...THOUGH A PERIOD OF SHOWERS DOES
LOOK FAIRLY LIKELY THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. PRECIP POTENTIAL
LOOKS TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AS IT MOVES INTO
NORTH CENTRAL IL DURING THE MID-LATE MORNING HOURS AND SPREADING
INTO NORTHEAST IL DURING THE AFTERNOON. FORCING WEAKENS THURSDAY
EVENING AS THE TROUGH RUNS INTO THE WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE...WITH
PRECIP EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE SPOTTY THURSDAY NIGHT AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND
WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT OF PACIFIC ORIGIN PASS EAST OF
THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING...WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN DURING
THE DAY. TEMPERATURES ACTUALLY WARM IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM AS
THE SURFACE RIDGE DRIFTS EAST DURING THE DAY AND WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
AROUND REBUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS ALLOWS WARM ADVECTION
BY AFTERNOON. MODEL THERMAL PROGS INDICATE SOME LOW-MID 60S ACROSS
NORTHERN IL FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
LONGER RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SPREADING BROAD
UPPER RIDGE EASTWARD FROM THE PLAINS AND ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND
GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHILE DEEP UPPER TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. MODELS DEPICT STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
AND WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPING AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND
LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS AND THE UPPER MIDWEST SUNDAY...
THOUGH AGAIN WITH LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN FOR THE MAGNITUDE OF THE
FLOW. THIS ALLOWS US TO WARM UP SIGNIFICANTLY HOWEVER...WITH HIGHS
LIKELY GETTING ABOVE 70 DEGREES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CWA...AND OVER MOST OF IT MONDAY. SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT
APPROACHES MONDAY WITH AN ATTENDANT CHANCE OF RAIN AND INCREASED
CLOUD COVER. A SECOND LOW IS DEPICTED LIFTING ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT-TUESDAY MAINTAINING RAIN THREAT...AND ALSO LEADING TO MUCH
COOLER WEATHER AGAIN TUESDAY BEHIND THE SYSTEM COLD FRONT.
RATZER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 03Z...
* MVFR CIGS AROUND 2,800 FEET AGL HOLDING THROUGH LATER TONIGHT.
KJB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z...
MVFR CIGS CONTINUE TO MOVE IN OFF THE LAKE EARLY THIS EVENING VIA A
NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY LOWER LEVEL WIND TRAJECTORY ASSOCIATED WITH A
SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES AND OVER EASTERN ONTARIO. IT APPEARS THESE LOW CLOUDS
WILL TRY TO GRADUALLY SCATTERED OUT OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS.
HOWEVER...SOME OF THESE CLOUDS COULD BE A LITTLE SLOWER TO SCATTER
OUT ACROSS THE EASTERN TERMINALS NEAR THE LAKE AS CONDITIONS LOOK
TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SOME CLOUD COVER OVER SOUTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN. THEREFORE...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT AS THE LOWER LEVEL WINDS
VEER MORE NORTHEASTERLY THIS EVENING...SOME CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE
TO STREAM OFF THE LAKE AND OVER NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS AND
NORTHWESTERN INDIANA DURING THE EVENING HOURS. I WILL CONTINUE TO
WATCH TRENDS WITH THIS AS THE EXACT TIMING OF SCATTERING IS A BIT
LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT CIG HEIGHTS
SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 2500 FEET AGL...SO AVIATION
IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE MAINLY VFR WITH
LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS.
KJB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 03Z...
* LOW-MEDIUM WITH EXACT TIMING OF IMPROVING CEILINGS TONIGHT.
* HIGH WITH OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS.
KJB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
* THURSDAY...CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHRA. SOUTH WINDS.
* FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...DRY/VFR. WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS.
* SUNDAY...DRY/VFR. SOUTH WINDS.
* MONDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS.
KJB
&&
.MARINE...
215 PM...LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN NEW YORK WILL MERGE WITH ANOTHER
LOW OVER NEAR THE DELMARVA AREA TONIGHT...AND RAPIDLY DEEPEN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY JUST SOUTH OF CAPE COD. THIS LOW WILL
THEN TRACK NORTHEAST TO NOVA SCOTIA BY SATURDAY MORNING.
MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN TIP OF JAMES
BAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING EXTENDING THROUGH THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WILL SLOWLY BUILD EAST. THE BRISK
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS CURRENTLY OVER THE LAKE WILL DIMINISH AND
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY AS THE
RIDGE AXIS CROSSES THE LAKE. WHILE WINDS SHOULD DROP BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS DURG THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING...RESIDUAL WAVE ACTION WILL BE SLOWER TO DAMPEN AND STILL
EXPECT THAT WAVES WILL REMAIN...ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. AS THE RIDGE MOVES TO THE EAST OF THE
LAKE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...REACHING THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY THURSDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL SET UP A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY GRADIENT OVER
THE LAKE WITH WINDS INCREASING TO ARND 20-25KT THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY UNTIL AN ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT
PUSHES ACROSS THE LAKE THURSDAY NIGHT.
KREIN
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 4 AM WEDNESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY.
&&
$$
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FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
749 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014
.DISCUSSION...
749 PM CDT
FOR AN EVENING UPDATE HAVE HELD ON TO FORECAST CLOUD COVER LONGER
TONIGHT...NAMELY FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
CHICAGO METRO AND SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FROM THERE.
SURFACE RIDGING IS BUILDING SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING INTO NORTHERN
ILLINOIS AND WIND SPEEDS HAVE COME DOWN QUITE A BIT OUTSIDE OF THE
IMMEDIATE LAKE SHORE. SUBSIDENCE ALOFT IS CONTINUING AS WELL PER
WATER VAPOR AND DIAGNOSTIC MODEL SOUNDINGS...BUT CLOUDS HAVE
SLOWED THEIR RATE OF DIMINISHING...POSSIBLY DUE TO NO MORE CLOUD
TOP WARMING FROM THE SUN.
WHILE THE CLOUD LAYER IS VERY THIN IN DEPTH AS INDICATED BY
REGIONAL AMDAR DATA...FORESEE CLOUDS HANGING ON A WHILE LONGER
WITH NIGHTFALL. THE LOCAL 8KM ARW...AND RAP TO SOME DEGREE...INDICATE
LITTLE MOVEMENT IN THE MOST SOLID SATURATION ALONG AND EAST OF
INTERSTATE 55 THROUGH MIDNIGHT...AND THEN AS CLOUD-BEARING FLOW
TURNS EASTERLY THE MOISTURE ADVECTS WITH IT AND GRADUALLY THINS.
THIS WAS GENERALLY DEPICTED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT JUST
HAVE SHIFTED BACK IN TIMING SEVERAL HOURS.
MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES TO BETTER FIT THIS
REASONING AND THAT DID LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN MIN TEMPS IN A FEW
PLACES...BUT OTHERWISE NO CHANGES MADE.
MTF
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
309 PM CDT
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOCUS ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND TIMING
WITH A COUPLE OF SYSTEMS WHICH WILL AFFECT THE REGION THURSDAY AND
NEXT MONDAY. ALSO...IT APPEARS THAT SOME 70 DEGREE TEMPERATURES ARE
POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AS WELL AS
ON MONDAY.
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A STRONG MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WHICH HAD DUG SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY IS NOW EXITING
THE AREA ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE SOUTHEAST. SUBSIDENCE IN THE
WAKE OF THIS FEATURE WAS EVIDENT BOTH IN RISING SURFACE PRESSURE
ACROSS THE CWA...AND IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AS EXTENSIVE AREA
OF STRATOCU ACROSS THE REGION ERODES FROM THE NORTH ACROSS WI/MI AND
LAKE MICHIGAN. EARLIER LAKE-INDUCED SHOWERS HAVE WEAKENED AND FADED
AS EXPECTED DUE TO LOWERING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND ASSOCIATED
WARMING ALOFT. CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN
COVERAGE INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH PERHAPS JUST SOME PATCHY THIN
SHALLOW STRATOCU LINGERING OFF THE LAKE BY LATE EVENING. LOOKING AT
THE BIGGER PICTURE...HIGH-AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE ANALYZED OVER THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE NATION WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND WESTERN/NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING...MAINTAINING SUBSIDENCE WHICH SHOULD FURTHER ERODE
LINGERING CLOUDS AND ALLOW SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WITH CLEARING SKIES AND
DECREASING WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS TONIGHT...
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP OFF INTO THE 30S IN MANY AREAS AWAY FROM
THE IMMEDIATE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE AND CORE OF CHICAGO. LATE NIGHT
MINS IN THE MID 30S AWAY FROM THE METRO AREA WILL LIKELY ALLOW AREAS
OF FROST TO DEVELOP WHERE WINDS DECOUPLE BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE.
UPPER AND LOW LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES REMAIN OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY ALLOWING PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE...THOUGH WITH ONLY MODEST
WARMING DUE TO EASTERLY WIND COMPONENT OFF LAKE AND COOLER UPSTREAM
AIR MASS. A BLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE APPEARS REASONABLE BASED ON RAW
MODEL LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS...WITH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON MAXES
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S ALONG THE LAKE TO THE UPPER 50S
ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN/SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA. ATTENTION THEN
TURNS BACK TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS A WELL-DEFINED
SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND
DAKOTAS BEFORE APPROACHING THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. HEIGHT/PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST NUDGES THE
SURFACE RIDGE AWAY TO OUR EAST AND INDUCES INCREASING
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH
OVERNIGHT. CLEAR-PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
LIKELY ALLOW FOR QUICK DECOUPLING OF BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS EARLY
WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE 30S AGAIN IN OUTLYING
AREAS...THOUGH SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS AND THE INCREASE IN
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL LIKELY LIMIT FROST SOMEWHAT.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE UPPER MIDWEST SHORT WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY...WITH THE BEST ORGANIZED DEEP LIFT
GENERALLY NORTH OF THE WFO CHICAGO CWA. THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
DOES SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA LATER IN THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT HOWEVER...
THOUGH WITH MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE GULF INITIALLY BLOCKED BY THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WHICH EXTENDS SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
ARKLATEX REGION FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THUS MOISTURE RETURN IS NOT
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM...THOUGH A PERIOD OF SHOWERS DOES
LOOK FAIRLY LIKELY THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. PRECIP POTENTIAL
LOOKS TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AS IT MOVES INTO
NORTH CENTRAL IL DURING THE MID-LATE MORNING HOURS AND SPREADING
INTO NORTHEAST IL DURING THE AFTERNOON. FORCING WEAKENS THURSDAY
EVENING AS THE TROUGH RUNS INTO THE WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE...WITH
PRECIP EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE SPOTTY THURSDAY NIGHT AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND
WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT OF PACIFIC ORIGIN PASS EAST OF
THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING...WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN DURING
THE DAY. TEMPERATURES ACTUALLY WARM IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM AS
THE SURFACE RIDGE DRIFTS EAST DURING THE DAY AND WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
AROUND REBUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS ALLOWS WARM ADVECTION
BY AFTERNOON. MODEL THERMAL PROGS INDICATE SOME LOW-MID 60S ACROSS
NORTHERN IL FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
LONGER RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SPREADING BROAD
UPPER RIDGE EASTWARD FROM THE PLAINS AND ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND
GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHILE DEEP UPPER TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. MODELS DEPICT STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
AND WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPING AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND
LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS AND THE UPPER MIDWEST SUNDAY...
THOUGH AGAIN WITH LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN FOR THE MAGNITUDE OF THE
FLOW. THIS ALLOWS US TO WARM UP SIGNIFICANTLY HOWEVER...WITH HIGHS
LIKELY GETTING ABOVE 70 DEGREES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CWA...AND OVER MOST OF IT MONDAY. SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT
APPROACHES MONDAY WITH AN ATTENDANT CHANCE OF RAIN AND INCREASED
CLOUD COVER. A SECOND LOW IS DEPICTED LIFTING ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT-TUESDAY MAINTAINING RAIN THREAT...AND ALSO LEADING TO MUCH
COOLER WEATHER AGAIN TUESDAY BEHIND THE SYSTEM COLD FRONT.
RATZER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 00Z...
* NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS GRADUALLY DROPPING BELOW 10 KT EARLY THIS
EVENING.
* MVFR CEILINGS HOLDING ON POSSIBLY THROUGH MID EVENING.
KJB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z...
MVFR CIGS CONTINUE TO MOVE IN OFF THE LAKE EARLY THIS EVENING VIA A
NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY LOWER LEVEL WIND TRAJECTORY ASSOCIATED WITH A
SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES AND OVER EASTERN ONTARIO. IT APPEARS THESE LOW CLOUDS
WILL TRY TO GRADUALLY SCATTERED OUT OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS.
HOWEVER...SOME OF THESE CLOUDS COULD BE A LITTLE SLOWER TO SCATTER
OUT ACROSS THE EASTERN TERMINALS NEAR THE LAKE AS CONDITIONS LOOK
TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SOME CLOUD COVER OVER SOUTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN. THEREFORE...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT AS THE LOWER LEVEL WINDS
VEER MORE NORTHEASTERLY THIS EVENING...SOME CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE
TO STREAM OFF THE LAKE AND OVER NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS AND
NORTHWESTERN INDIANA DURING THE EVENING HOURS. I WILL CONTINUE TO
WATCH TRENDS WITH THIS AS THE EXACT TIMING OF SCATTERING IS A BIT
LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT CIG HEIGHTS
SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 2500 FEET AGL...SO AVIATION
IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE MAINLY VFR WITH
LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS.
KJB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 00Z...
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH WIND SPEED/DIRECTION.
* LOW-MEDIUM CONFIDENCE WITH EXACT TIMING OF IMPROVING CEILINGS
THIS EVENING.
KJB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
* THURSDAY...CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHRA. SOUTH WINDS.
* FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...DRY/VFR. WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS.
* SUNDAY...DRY/VFR. SOUTH WINDS.
* MONDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS.
KJB
&&
.MARINE...
215 PM...LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN NEW YORK WILL MERGE WITH ANOTHER
LOW OVER NEAR THE DELMARVA AREA TONIGHT...AND RAPIDLY DEEPEN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY JUST SOUTH OF CAPE COD. THIS LOW WILL
THEN TRACK NORTHEAST TO NOVA SCOTIA BY SATURDAY MORNING.
MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN TIP OF JAMES
BAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING EXTENDING THROUGH THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WILL SLOWLY BUILD EAST. THE BRISK
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS CURRENTLY OVER THE LAKE WILL DIMINISH AND
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY AS THE
RIDGE AXIS CROSSES THE LAKE. WHILE WINDS SHOULD DROP BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS DURG THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING...RESIDUAL WAVE ACTION WILL BE SLOWER TO DAMPEN AND STILL
EXPECT THAT WAVES WILL REMAIN...ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. AS THE RIDGE MOVES TO THE EAST OF THE
LAKE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...REACHING THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY THURSDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL SET UP A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY GRADIENT OVER
THE LAKE WITH WINDS INCREASING TO ARND 20-25KT THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY UNTIL AN ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT
PUSHES ACROSS THE LAKE THURSDAY NIGHT.
KREIN
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
255 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014
.DISCUSSION...
249 PM CDT
TONIGHT...
UPPER LEVEL WAVE CONTINUES TO ROTATE OVER NORTHEAST ONTARIO...WITH A
A COUPLE WEAK LOBES OF VORTICITY ROTATING AROUND THE BACKEDGE OF
THIS SYSTEM...PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. VISIBLE
IMAGERY SHOWS CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER ACROSS MICHIGAN...STRETCHING
WEST ACROSS THE LAKE AND BEGINNING TO SLIDE INTO FAR NORTHEAST IL.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS WAVE AS IT
PUSHES SOUTHEAST ACROSS WISCONSIN AND PERHAPS INTO FAR NORTHEAST IL
LATE THIS EVE...BEFORE SHIFTING EAST INTO FAR NORTHWEST IN BY
DAYBREAK TUE. OTHERWISE EXPECT CLOUDS TO THICKEN THIS EVE ACROSS THE
CWFA...PERHAPS LESS CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE FAR WEST/SOUTHWEST
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE CLOUD COVER TONIGHT...THIS
SHOULD KEEP TEMPS GENERALLY AROUND 40 TO THE LOW 40S TONIGHT.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
500MB TROUGH AXIS WILL BEGIN TO PUSH EAST...WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGE BEGINNING TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THIS WILL BRING A BROAD SFC RIDGE TO THE AREA STRETCHING FROM
CENTRAL CANADA SOUTH TO THE WESTERN GULF. GUIDANCE THEN CONTINUES TO
MAINTAIN THIS FEATURE THROUGH THUR MORNING...HOWEVER THERE IS A WEAK
WAVE SLIDING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WED NGT THAT IS PROGGED
TO LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE CWFA THUR AFTN/EVE. THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING
SOME LIGHT PRECIP TO THE AREA...BUT AT THIS TIME HAVE ONLY GONE WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS GIVEN THE MOISTURE AVAILABILITY APPEARS TO BE
MINIMAL. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPR 50S TO LOW 60S...WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO FEATURE A TROUGH PERSISTING ALONG THE FAR
SOUTHWEST CONUS...ALLOWING RIDGING TO DOMINATE THE CENTRAL CONUS
LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THE DRY
PATTERN FOR THE REGION. IN ADDITION IT APPEARS TEMPS WILL BE ABLE TO
STEADILY MODERATE...PERHAPS REACHING THE UPR 60S TO ARND 70.
ENSEMBLES DO SUGGEST THAT TOWARDS THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND THE
RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT EAST...WITH A TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE
CENTRAL CONUS AND PERHAPS BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER BACK INTO THE
REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BEACHLER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* NORTHWEST WINDS/GUSTS BRIEFLY BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN BECOMING NORTHEAST WITH SPEEDS AT OR ABOVE 10
KT TUESDAY MORNING.
* DEVELOPING VFR CEILINGS BECOMING MVFR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
* PERIODIC/ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS.
RODRIGUEZ
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES STILL PRESENT ACROSS THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...WHILE NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE.
DEVELOPING DIURNAL STRATOCU WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA OVER THE
NEXT 1-2 HOURS AND ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH
END MVFR CEILINGS...DO THINK THAT VFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL THIS
AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS/GUSTS WILL STEADILY INCREASE OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH A POSSIBILITY REMAINING FOR WINDS TO
BRIEFLY GO MORE NORTHERLY. THIS SHOULD ALSO BE BRIEF WITH A
NORTHWEST WIND LIKELY FAVORED. WITH VFR CEILINGS REMAINING
OVERHEAD TONIGHT...THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH BEFORE
QUICKLY INCREASING ABOVE 10 KT OUT OF THE NORTHEAST EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. AS THIS OCCURS...ANTICIPATE ALREADY PRESENT MVFR CEILINGS
OVER THE LAKE TO MOVE WEST ACROSS THE TERMINALS...EXCEPT RFD.
THERE WILL ALSO BE A PERIOD OF SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS TO SPILL
OFF THE LAKE DURING THIS TIME...BUT WITH MDW/GYY THE LIKELY
LOCATIONS TO OBSERVE THIS PRECIP.
RODRIGUEZ
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* MEDIUM HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH WIND SPEED/DIRECTION.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH VFR CEILINGS...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE WITH MVFR
CEILINGS.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE WITH LIGHT SHOWERS.
RODRIGUEZ
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
* TUESDAY NIGHT...DRY/VFR.
* WEDNESDAY...DRY/VFR. EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS.
* THURSDAY...DRY/VFR. SOUTH WINDS.
* FRIDAY...DRY/VFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS.
* SATURDAY...DRY/VFR. WEST WINDS.
* SUNDAY...DRY/VFR. SOUTH WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...
250 PM...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE REGION CENTERED
OVER NORTHERN LAKE HURON LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY DRIFT EAST OVERNIGHT. THIS LOW WILL THEN REACH LAKE ONTARIO
AROUND DAYBREAK TUE. THE BACK EDGE OF THIS LOW CONTINUES TO
FEATURE A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT...WHICH HAS PRODUCED GUSTY
WINDS JUST BEGINNING TO SLIDE OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
LAKE. THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY SLIDE SOUTH THIS
EVENING...AND EXPECT NORTH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
ONTARIO WILL BEGIN TO BUILD SOUTH OVERNIGHT...THEN STRETCH FROM
ONTARIO SOUTH TO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY TUE NGT. THIS WILL
BRING MUCH LIGHTER WINDS TO THE LAKE BY WED.
BEACHLER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-
LMZ745...10 PM MONDAY TO 7 AM WEDNESDAY.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
242 PM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014
Weak low pressure over the Great Lakes this afternoon with a weak
boundary trailing out behind it through Central and Southeastern
Illinois. Forecast for the overnight rather quiet with
northwesterly flow continuing, though the winds may be variable at
times, becoming light after sunset. Dry air filtering into the CWA
as the overnight cools should keep the RH just sub saturation. This
in concert with winds at or above 5kt or so...fog issues are not
expected. However, another wave making its way into the larger
scale trof from nrn MN is keeping a lobe of lower clouds a bit
further out to the west. This particular area is expected to dive
southeast in the overnight hours...while the rest of the system
pulls out to the east on the synoptic scale. The NAM is keeping the
llvls far more significant and brushing ILX northeast with the edge
of the more substantial cloud cover. Remaining models not really
holding onto as much. Sat imagery also shows a slow erosion of the
western edge of the clouds...as well as the HRRR supporting the
clouds staying to the north and northeast. It may be close, but
leaving the overnight mostly clear and lows dipping into the low to
mid 40s.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014
As the 500 mb wave cuts off over the eastern Great Lakes tomorrow,
the northeast CWA will be on the southwest fringe of better
moist/cyclonic flow, and will be close to strato-cu deck. Most
high-res models keep thicker cloud cover to our east and will
continue to trend forecast that way. Regardless, highs will be
several degrees below normal, ranging from the mid 50s northeast to
low 60 in the south/southwest.
Wednesday and Thursday...Surface and and upper level ridging shift across
the Midwest ahead of the next upper level weakness moving into the
northern Plains. This will provide clear/dry and seasonably cool
weather. As the next system shifts into the upper Midwest, showers
should overspread Iowa and Missouri early Thursday. However as the
dynamics with this feature shift east of the Mississippi River it
will encounter increasingly dry air and surface/upper ridging. As a
result most of the shower activity is expected to decay during the
afternoon/evening as it shifts through the northern half of the
CWA. Slight chance pops will cover this possibility.
Friday through Monday...Medium range guidance/ensembles show good
agreement that a pronounced warming trend will affect the region.
This will result from troughs affecting the west and east coasts,
allowing upper ridging to build across the central U.S., and drawing
up a thermal ridge from the southern Plains, pushing 850 mb temps to
+12-16 C this weekend. Friday will see some moderation with
readings returning near to slightly above normal. In a rarity for
early fall, highs on Saturday and Sunday are progged to be 10-15
degrees above normal without strong winds aiding in low level warm
advection, due to high pressure in the vicinity. If the GFS is
correct, southerly flow will increase later Sunday in tightening
gradient ahead of the next low pressure complex in the Plains. As
this system shifts east it will bring the next chance of rain to the
region for early next week. Considerable uncertainty exists at
that range, with the 12z ECMWF depicting a much weaker system.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014
Northwesterly flow today with clear skies becoming more northerly
by morning. Light and somewhat variable in the overnight. Some
moisture in the low levels may develop into some sct clouds...with
more bkn deck to the north and northeast. Some concern that the
shortwave over the upper Midwest would dive into the region and
threaten ILX terminals with a more bkn deck. NAM is the only one
showing enough moisture to cover CMI and BMI...other models drier,
including the HRRR. For now, will maintain the SCT mention, though
later issuances may require a bkn deck for CMI and BMI.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...25
AVIATION...HJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
348 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014
...UPDATED SHORT TERM SECTION...
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014
A RATHER ANOMALOUSLY HIGH UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WAS CENTERED
DIRECTLY OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS TODAY, WITH AFTERNOON RAP ANALYSIS
SHOWING A 583 DAM 500MB CENTER NEAR DODGE CITY. THIS RESULTED IN
LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. CLEAR SKIES
PREVAILED AFTER THE MORNING FOG AMIDST THE SUBSIDENCE. A WEAK
SURFACE FRONT PUSHED SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY, WHICH WAS STALLING
OUT AND DISSOLVING FROM THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA. THERE WAS A CORRIDOR OF 53-59F SURFACE DEWPOINTS EXTENDING
FROM THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. AS WINDS BECOME
EAST AND EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY TONIGHT, THIS MOISTURE WILL PULL WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD INTO FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND THE COLORADO BORDER. WE
EXPECT FOG AND PERHAPS DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP AGAIN LATE TONIGHT,
PRIMARILY 09Z AND LATER TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
FALL TO LOWS IN THE MID 40S AS A RULE ALONG/NORTH OF THE ARKANSAS
RIVER. CLOSER TO THE OKLAHOMA BORDER, LOWS SHOULD NOT FALL BELOW
LOWER 50S GIVEN THE HIGHER SURFACE MOISTURE CONTENT.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH ON TUESDAY IN
RESPONSE TO DEEPENING PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AS ANOTHER
PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. ALONG WITH THE
SOUTH WINDS, A BAND OF STRATUS WILL DEVELOP UP TO AROUND 2000 FEET
AGL, WHICH WILL EXPAND NORTHWARD DURING THE EARLY TO MID MORNING
HOURS. EVENTUALLY, THE STRATUS WILL SCATTER OUT AS IT SHIFTS TO THE
NORTH, BUT AREAS UP ALONG I-70 MAY SEE LOW CLOUDS THROUGH 19 OR 20Z,
WHICH WOULD CERTAINLY MITIGATE THE WARM-UP. HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE
LOWERED JUST A LITTLE BIT BECAUSE OF THIS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014
MAIN SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POP GRADIENT FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BROUGHT
THE GRADIENT FURTHER EAST WITH LESSER AMOUNTS ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS.
MESOSCALE MODELS ARE STARTING TO AGREE WITH GLOBAL MODELS THAT THERE
WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT, WHICH IS NOT FAVORABLE
FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS. THE BEST FRONTOGENESIS
WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS INTO NEBRASKA. HAVE THE HIGHEST
POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES. AGAIN, TO THE SOUTHWEST, THINK CHANCE
OF MORE SIGNIFICANT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS DWINDLING. SEVERE WEATHER
IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO MARGINAL MUCAPE AND PARTICULARLY BULK SHEAR.
BEYOND WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY HO-HUM AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL FAVOR
TEMPERATURES 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. WE MAY SEE A MODERATE STRENGTH
FRONT IN ABOUT A WEEK FROM NOW WITH ASSOCIATED COOLER TEMPERATURES.
OTHERWISE WARMTH AND A PRECIPITATION-FREE FORECAST WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE LONG TERM DOMAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014
SKIES CLEARED RAPIDLY AFTER THE MORNING FOG. WINDS WILL BE
EASTERLY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT
PUSH. THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT AND DISSOLVE LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT, HOWEVER RESIDUAL MOISTURE NORTH OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY
YIELD DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AGAIN LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
AT THIS TIME, IT DOES NOT APPEAR DENSE FOG WILL FORM AT DDC, GCK,
OR HYS WITH THE BEST THREAT FOR FOG ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A PERIOD OF MVFR STRATUS, HOWEVER, IN THE
12-18Z TIME FRAME AT DDC AND GCK (1200-2000 FOOT BROKEN-OVERCAST).
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 48 75 56 76 / 0 0 10 50
GCK 45 75 56 76 / 0 0 10 40
EHA 51 75 54 73 / 0 0 10 20
LBL 50 75 55 76 / 0 0 10 30
HYS 44 71 57 76 / 0 0 10 60
P28 52 77 57 77 / 0 0 10 60
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...SUGDEN
AVIATION...UMSCHEID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
222 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014
...UPDATE TO LONG TERM...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014
IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE, THERE IS A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN TO EASTERN COLORADO THIS MORNING. AT THE
SURFACE, THERE IS A TROUGH RUNNING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST TODAY
AND BE FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA TO NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BY
TONIGHT. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE AND WASH OUT,
AND ALLOW ONLY LIGHT EASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON. I DID BUMP HIGH TEMPERATURES UP JUST SLIGHTLY DOWN
ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER, AND THINK THERE COULD EVEN BE A COUPLE
OF LOCATIONS WITH HIGHS AROUND 80F DEGREES SOUTH OF THE TROUGH.
NORTH OF THE TROUGH IN THE SCOTT CITY TO HAYS AREAS, HIGHS SHOULD
ONLY REACH TO THE 73F-74F RANGE.
TONIGHT SHOULD STAY MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST
UPSLOPE WINDS AT LESS THAN 7 MPH. THEREFORE, I THINK MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO THIS NIGHT`S, RANGING FROM THE
MID 40S NORTH OF I-70 TO AROUND 50F DEGREES FROM JOHNSON TO DODGE
CITY TO PRATT, AND TO THE LOWER 50S ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.
THERE WILL JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SOME FOG TO FORM, MAINLY FROM
SCOTT CITY TO DODGE CITY TO ASHLAND. FOR NOW, HAVE PLACED PATCHY
FOG WORDING IN FROM APPROXIMATELY 09Z TO 14Z TUESDAY MORNING. THE
NAM AND RAP MODELS HAVE LESS THAN 1 MILE VISIBILITY OVER OUR
EASTERN FORECAST AREA.
OTHER THAN MAX TEMPS TODAY AND THE ADDITION OF FOG, NO OTHER
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014
MAIN SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POP GRADIENT FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BROUGHT
THE GRADIENT FURTHER EAST WITH LESSER AMOUNTS ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS.
MESOSCALE MODELS ARE STARTING TO AGREE WITH GLOBAL MODELS THAT THERE
WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT, WHICH IS NOT FAVORABLE
FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS. THE BEST FRONTOGENESIS
WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS INTO NEBRASKA. HAVE THE HIGHEST
POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES. AGAIN, TO THE SOUTHWEST, THINK CHANCE
OF MORE SIGNIFICANT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS DWINDLING. SEVERE WEATHER
IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO MARGINAL MUCAPE AND PARTICULARLY BULK SHEAR.
BEYOND WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY HO-HUM AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL FAVOR
TEMPERATURES 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. WE MAY SEE A MODERATE STRENGTH
FRONT IN ABOUT A WEEK FROM NOW WITH ASSOCIATED COOLER TEMPERATURES.
OTHERWISE WARMTH AND A PRECIPITATION-FREE FORECAST WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE LONG TERM DOMAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014
SKIES CLEARED RAPIDLY AFTER THE MORNING FOG. WINDS WILL BE
EASTERLY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT
PUSH. THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT AND DISSOLVE LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT, HOWEVER RESIDUAL MOISTURE NORTH OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY
YIELD DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AGAIN LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
AT THIS TIME, IT DOES NOT APPEAR DENSE FOG WILL FORM AT DDC, GCK,
OR HYS WITH THE BEST THREAT FOR FOG ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A PERIOD OF MVFR STRATUS, HOWEVER, IN THE
12-18Z TIME FRAME AT DDC AND GCK (1200-2000 FOOT BROKEN-OVERCAST).
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 48 75 56 76 / 0 0 10 50
GCK 45 75 56 76 / 0 0 10 40
EHA 51 75 54 73 / 0 0 10 20
LBL 50 75 55 76 / 0 0 10 30
HYS 44 71 57 76 / 0 0 10 60
P28 52 77 57 77 / 0 0 10 60
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...SUGDEN
AVIATION...UMSCHEID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1238 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014
...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014
IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE, THERE IS A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN TO EASTERN COLORADO THIS MORNING. AT THE
SURFACE, THERE IS A TROUGH RUNNING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST TODAY
AND BE FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA TO NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BY
TONIGHT. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE AND WASH OUT,
AND ALLOW ONLY LIGHT EASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON. I DID BUMP HIGH TEMPERATURES UP JUST SLIGHTLY DOWN
ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER, AND THINK THERE COULD EVEN BE A COUPLE
OF LOCATIONS WITH HIGHS AROUND 80F DEGREES SOUTH OF THE TROUGH.
NORTH OF THE TROUGH IN THE SCOTT CITY TO HAYS AREAS, HIGHS SHOULD
ONLY REACH TO THE 73F-74F RANGE.
TONIGHT SHOULD STAY MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST
UPSLOPE WINDS AT LESS THAN 7 MPH. THEREFORE, I THINK MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO THIS NIGHT`S, RANGING FROM THE
MID 40S NORTH OF I-70 TO AROUND 50F DEGREES FROM JOHNSON TO DODGE
CITY TO PRATT, AND TO THE LOWER 50S ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.
THERE WILL JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SOME FOG TO FORM, MAINLY FROM
SCOTT CITY TO DODGE CITY TO ASHLAND. FOR NOW, HAVE PLACED PATCHY
FOG WORDING IN FROM APPROXIMATELY 09Z TO 14Z TUESDAY MORNING. THE
NAM AND RAP MODELS HAVE LESS THAN 1 MILE VISIBILITY OVER OUR
EASTERN FORECAST AREA.
OTHER THAN MAX TEMPS TODAY AND THE ADDITION OF FOG, NO OTHER
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING AS MOISTURE
INCREASES ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTHWARD AS THE DAY PROGRESSES WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION SOUTH OF THIS FRONT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST
TUESDAY THEN INTO THE ROCKIES WEDNESDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE THEN MOVES
THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WHICH WILL
IN TURN PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY
CLOUDY WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALSO INCREASE AS THIS
SYSTEM APPROACHES SPREADING WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
THE BEST CHANCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM THEN MOVES OUT OF THE
AREA THURSDAY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THURSDAY MORNING. CLOUDS WILL ALSO DECREASE
THURSDAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WHICH SHOULD SUPPRESS ANY
ACTIVITY FROM FORMING ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. AS FOR TEMPERATURES,
HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH LOWS
STARTING OUT IN THE LOWER 50S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNING WITH
MID TO UPPER 40S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014
SKIES CLEARED RAPIDLY AFTER THE MORNING FOG. WINDS WILL BE
EASTERLY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT
PUSH. THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT AND DISSOLVE LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT, HOWEVER RESIDUAL MOISTURE NORTH OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY
YIELD DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AGAIN LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
AT THIS TIME, IT DOES NOT APPEAR DENSE FOG WILL FORM AT DDC, GCK,
OR HYS WITH THE BEST THREAT FOR FOG ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A PERIOD OF MVFR STRATUS, HOWEVER, IN THE
12-18Z TIME FRAME AT DDC AND GCK (1200-2000 FOOT BROKEN-OVERCAST).
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 77 50 76 55 / 0 0 0 10
GCK 75 49 75 54 / 0 0 0 10
EHA 74 51 77 52 / 0 0 0 10
LBL 75 51 77 53 / 0 0 0 10
HYS 75 46 73 55 / 0 0 0 10
P28 78 52 77 55 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...UMSCHEID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
619 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014
...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014
IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE, THERE IS A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN TO EASTERN COLORADO THIS MORNING. AT THE
SURFACE, THERE IS A TROUGH RUNNING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST TODAY
AND BE FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA TO NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BY
TONIGHT. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE AND WASH OUT,
AND ALLOW ONLY LIGHT EASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON. I DID BUMP HIGH TEMPERATURES UP JUST SLIGHTLY DOWN
ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER, AND THINK THERE COULD EVEN BE A COUPLE
OF LOCATIONS WITH HIGHS AROUND 80F DEGREES SOUTH OF THE TROUGH.
NORTH OF THE TROUGH IN THE SCOTT CITY TO HAYS AREAS, HIGHS SHOULD
ONLY REACH TO THE 73F-74F RANGE.
TONIGHT SHOULD STAY MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST
UPSLOPE WINDS AT LESS THAN 7 MPH. THEREFORE, I THINK MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO THIS NIGHT`S, RANGING FROM THE
MID 40S NORTH OF I-70 TO AROUND 50F DEGREES FROM JOHNSON TO DODGE
CITY TO PRATT, AND TO THE LOWER 50S ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.
THERE WILL JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SOME FOG TO FORM, MAINLY FROM
SCOTT CITY TO DODGE CITY TO ASHLAND. FOR NOW, HAVE PLACED PATCHY
FOG WORDING IN FROM APPROXIMATELY 09Z TO 14Z TUESDAY MORNING. THE
NAM AND RAP MODELS HAVE LESS THAN 1 MILE VISIBILITY OVER OUR
EASTERN FORECAST AREA.
OTHER THAN MAX TEMPS TODAY AND THE ADDITION OF FOG, NO OTHER
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING AS MOISTURE
INCREASES ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTHWARD AS THE DAY PROGRESSES WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION SOUTH OF THIS FRONT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST
TUESDAY THEN INTO THE ROCKIES WEDNESDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE THEN MOVES
THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WHICH WILL
IN TURN PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY
CLOUDY WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALSO INCREASE AS THIS
SYSTEM APPROACHES SPREADING WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
THE BEST CHANCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM THEN MOVES OUT OF THE
AREA THURSDAY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THURSDAY MORNING. CLOUDS WILL ALSO DECREASE
THURSDAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WHICH SHOULD SUPPRESS ANY
ACTIVITY FROM FORMING ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. AS FOR TEMPERATURES,
HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH LOWS
STARTING OUT IN THE LOWER 50S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNING WITH
MID TO UPPER 40S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 617 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014
PATCHY DENSE FOG DOWN TO A QUARTER OF A MILE WILL BE FOUND ACROSS
THE DDC TERMINAL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BRINGING LIFR
CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE DAY ACROSS THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE
NORTH THIS MORNING SHIFTING TO MORE OF AN EASTERLY DIRECTION BY
THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 75 50 76 55 / 0 0 0 10
GCK 74 49 75 54 / 0 0 0 10
EHA 74 51 77 52 / 0 0 0 10
LBL 78 51 77 53 / 0 0 0 10
HYS 73 46 73 55 / 0 0 0 10
P28 78 52 77 55 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
333 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014
...UPDATED FOR THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014
IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE, THERE IS A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN TO EASTERN COLORADO THIS MORNING. AT THE
SURFACE, THERE IS A TROUGH RUNNING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST TODAY
AND BE FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA TO NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BY
TONIGHT. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE AND WASH OUT,
AND ALLOW ONLY LIGHT EASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON. I DID BUMP HIGH TEMPERATURES UP JUST SLIGHTLY DOWN
ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER, AND THINK THERE COULD EVEN BE A COUPLE
OF LOCATIONS WITH HIGHS AROUND 80F DEGREES SOUTH OF THE TROUGH.
NORTH OF THE TROUGH IN THE SCOTT CITY TO HAYS AREAS, HIGHS SHOULD
ONLY REACH TO THE 73F-74F RANGE.
TONIGHT SHOULD STAY MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST
UPSLOPE WINDS AT LESS THAN 7 MPH. THEREFORE, I THINK MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO THIS NIGHT`S, RANGING FROM THE
MID 40S NORTH OF I-70 TO AROUND 50F DEGREES FROM JOHNSON TO DODGE
CITY TO PRATT, AND TO THE LOWER 50S ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.
THERE WILL JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SOME FOG TO FORM, MAINLY FROM
SCOTT CITY TO DODGE CITY TO ASHLAND. FOR NOW, HAVE PLACED PATCHY
FOG WORDING IN FROM APPROXIMATELY 09Z TO 14Z TUESDAY MORNING. THE
NAM AND RAP MODELS HAVE LESS THAN 1 MILE VISIBILITY OVER OUR
EASTERN FORECAST AREA.
OTHER THAN MAX TEMPS TODAY AND THE ADDITION OF FOG, NO OTHER
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING AS MOISTURE
INCREASES ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTHWARD AS THE DAY PROGRESSES WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION SOUTH OF THIS FRONT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST
TUESDAY THEN INTO THE ROCKIES WEDNESDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE THEN MOVES
THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WHICH WILL
IN TURN PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY
CLOUDY WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALSO INCREASE AS THIS
SYSTEM APPROACHES SPREADING WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
THE BEST CHANCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM THEN MOVES OUT OF THE
AREA THURSDAY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THURSDAY MORNING. CLOUDS WILL ALSO DECREASE
THURSDAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WHICH SHOULD SUPPRESS ANY
ACTIVITY FROM FORMING ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. AS FOR TEMPERATURES,
HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH LOWS
STARTING OUT IN THE LOWER 50S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNING WITH
MID TO UPPER 40S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014
ALL PILOTS IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS CAN EXPECT VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LITTLE OR NO CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED, AND
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER WESTERN KANSAS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 75 50 76 55 / 0 0 0 10
GCK 74 49 75 54 / 0 0 0 10
EHA 74 51 77 52 / 0 0 0 10
LBL 78 51 77 53 / 0 0 0 10
HYS 73 46 73 55 / 0 0 0 10
P28 78 52 77 55 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...BURKE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
110 PM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1135 AM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014
The area of rain associated with this morning`s PV anomaly continues
to slowly shift to the east. Coverage of showers across south
central Kentucky is a bit higher late this morning than previously
anticipated so have bumped up pops for the next few hours. Isolated
to scattered showers will continue to be possible this afternoon and
into the evening hours as a front approaches and moves into the
area.
Issued at 928 AM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014
The narrow line of showers continues to slowly move east across the
area. In addition, a few showers have popped up both north and south
of this line. In general the forecast is in pretty good shape. The
pop grids were updated to include a slight chance for precipitation
across south central KY where the forecast was dry before. Also
brought grids in line with current observations.
Issued at 615 AM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014
A narrow line of showers has developed over southern Indiana ahead
of an approaching PV anomaly from the NW. These light showers will
continue to push east across the northern half of the CWA through
the morning. Have increased chances to likely (60-70% coverage)
along a narrow axis in southern IN and northern KY to account. The
highest pops will roughly be along and several miles either side of
the I-64 corridor. Areas north and south of this region can expect
isolated to widely scattered light rain showers through the morning
and early afternoon.
Refer to the 20/00z or 20/06z NAM or recent runs of the HRRR as they
appear to have a good handle on what will transpire with light rain
today.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014
Things are quiet across the CWA at this hour, with only some mid and
upper level sky cover in place, and temperatures running in the low
and mid 40s. Will watch chances for isolated to scattered rain
showers increase over the next few hours ahead of a PV anomaly
diving in from the upper Midwest. Light rain showers have already
begun to organize from NW Indiana through southern Missouri ahead of
this feature, and expect a cluster of these showers to mainly focus
over southern Indiana and northern Kentucky later this morning. Less
impressed with measurable rain chances across south central KY where
there will be less moisture and more displaced from the best
forcing. Can`t rule out an isolated sprinkle, but think measurable
rain will be hard to come by. Will see temperatures warm to the mid
and upper 60s today on a steady SW wind, despite the lack of strong
solar insolation.
Will keep an chances for an isolated shower in across the far NE
into the late evening hours where deep moisture will be most
impressive. Things should dry out after Midnight. Will see milder
lows tonight under cloud cover and a somewhat mixy near-surface
environment.
Will have one more shot at isolated light rain showers across our NE
on Tuesday morning as another wave dives into the mean trough over
the eastern CONUS, and combines with the lingering low level
moisture. Most spots will stay dry this day with a fairly sizable
temperature gradient across the CWA. Look for upper 50s NE to mid to
upper 60s SW.
.LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014
An extended period of tranquil fall weather is on the way, with no
precip chances in the forecast through Sunday. The middle of the
week will feature shortwave ridging aloft, but Canadian surface high
pressure will be drawn southward behind a slowly departing East
Coast low. This will keep out temps below normal for most of the
work week. Coldest mornings will be Thursday with the surface ridge
axis directly over the Ohio Valley, and Friday as favorable
radiational cooling conditions persist. More sheltered/rural
locations could see lows in the 30s, and frost can`t be ruled out
either.
By the weekend, the next upper shortwave trof will weaken as it
heads into the Great Lakes, and with precipitable water values
barely touching climo, the only sensible weather impact will likely
be an increase in cloud cover. Temps will recover to near or above
climo as upper ridge starts to build from the SW, but that could be
limited by N-NE low-level flow depending on how strongly the surface
high is reinforced by the weakening upper impulse. Current forecast
is more in line with the raw model consensus, but if the upper
ridging wins out extended GFS MOS highs in the 70s could be the way
to go.
&&
.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 105 PM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014
Isolated showers will continue this afternoon as another disturbance
nears the area. However, the chances of any one of them affecting
the terminals are low so will leave mention of them out of the TAFs.
VFR conditions are expected to continue for the remainder of the
afternoon at all sites. Some breaks in the clouds are expected
through the afternoon.
For tonight a cold front will move through the area. Clouds will
build back in, particularly at LEX and SDF. This will shift winds to
the northwest by tomorrow morning with speeds increasing to 8-10
knots. Some light fog will be possible at LEX early tomorrow
morning. This should improve shortly after sunrise.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Update.........EER/BJS
Short Term.....BJS
Long Term......RAS
Aviation.......EER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
1139 AM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014
...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1135 AM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014
The area of rain associated with this morning`s PV anomaly continues
to slowly shift to the east. Coverage of showers across south
central Kentucky is a bit higher late this morning than previously
anticipated so have bumped up pops for the next few hours. Isolated
to scattered showers will continue to be possible this afternoon and
into the evening hours as a front approaches and moves into the
area.
Issued at 928 AM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014
The narrow line of showers continues to slowly move east across the
area. In addition, a few showers have popped up both north and south
of this line. In general the forecast is in pretty good shape. The
pop grids were updated to include a slight chance for precipitation
across south central KY where the forecast was dry before. Also
brought grids in line with current observations.
Issued at 615 AM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014
A narrow line of showers has developed over southern Indiana ahead
of an approaching PV anomaly from the NW. These light showers will
continue to push east across the northern half of the CWA through
the morning. Have increased chances to likely (60-70% coverage)
along a narrow axis in southern IN and northern KY to account. The
highest pops will roughly be along and several miles either side of
the I-64 corridor. Areas north and south of this region can expect
isolated to widely scattered light rain showers through the morning
and early afternoon.
Refer to the 20/00z or 20/06z NAM or recent runs of the HRRR as they
appear to have a good handle on what will transpire with light rain
today.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014
Things are quiet across the CWA at this hour, with only some mid and
upper level sky cover in place, and temperatures running in the low
and mid 40s. Will watch chances for isolated to scattered rain
showers increase over the next few hours ahead of a PV anomaly
diving in from the upper Midwest. Light rain showers have already
begun to organize from NW Indiana through southern Missouri ahead of
this feature, and expect a cluster of these showers to mainly focus
over southern Indiana and northern Kentucky later this morning. Less
impressed with measurable rain chances across south central KY where
there will be less moisture and more displaced from the best
forcing. Can`t rule out an isolated sprinkle, but think measurable
rain will be hard to come by. Will see temperatures warm to the mid
and upper 60s today on a steady SW wind, despite the lack of strong
solar insolation.
Will keep an chances for an isolated shower in across the far NE
into the late evening hours where deep moisture will be most
impressive. Things should dry out after Midnight. Will see milder
lows tonight under cloud cover and a somewhat mixy near-surface
environment.
Will have one more shot at isolated light rain showers across our NE
on Tuesday morning as another wave dives into the mean trough over
the eastern CONUS, and combines with the lingering low level
moisture. Most spots will stay dry this day with a fairly sizable
temperature gradient across the CWA. Look for upper 50s NE to mid to
upper 60s SW.
.LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014
An extended period of tranquil fall weather is on the way, with no
precip chances in the forecast through Sunday. The middle of the
week will feature shortwave ridging aloft, but Canadian surface high
pressure will be drawn southward behind a slowly departing East
Coast low. This will keep out temps below normal for most of the
work week. Coldest mornings will be Thursday with the surface ridge
axis directly over the Ohio Valley, and Friday as favorable
radiational cooling conditions persist. More sheltered/rural
locations could see lows in the 30s, and frost can`t be ruled out
either.
By the weekend, the next upper shortwave trof will weaken as it
heads into the Great Lakes, and with precipitable water values
barely touching climo, the only sensible weather impact will likely
be an increase in cloud cover. Temps will recover to near or above
climo as upper ridge starts to build from the SW, but that could be
limited by N-NE low-level flow depending on how strongly the surface
high is reinforced by the weakening upper impulse. Current forecast
is more in line with the raw model consensus, but if the upper
ridging wins out extended GFS MOS highs in the 70s could be the way
to go.
&&
.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 648 AM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014
Expecting VFR conditions to prevail outside of any rain showers,
however SDF/LEX will have the best shot at some brief MVFR
visibilities in moderate rain this morning. A fairly solid line of
showers has developed over southern Indiana ahead of an upper level
disturbance and will slide across SDF/LEX through the morning. Best
timing at SDF should be between 8 and 10 AM EDT, and the best timing
at LEX should be between 9 AM and 1 PM EDT. Ceilings are expected to
remain VFR.
BWG will have a shot an an isolated shower or two, however coverage
should be less so will only mention VCSH for now. Otherwise, expect
steady SW winds up between 10 and 15 mph later this afternoon.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Update.........EER/BJS
Short Term.....BJS
Long Term......RAS
Aviation.......BJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
929 AM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014
...Forecast Update...
Issued at 928 AM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014
The narrow line of showers continues to slowly move east across the
area. In addition, a few showers have popped up both north and south
of this line. In general the forecast is in pretty good shape. The
pop grids were updated to include a slight chance for precipitation
across south central KY where the forecast was dry before. Also
brought grids in line with current observations.
Issued at 615 AM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014
A narrow line of showers has developed over southern Indiana ahead
of an approaching PV anomaly from the NW. These light showers will
continue to push east across the northern half of the CWA through
the morning. Have increased chances to likely (60-70% coverage)
along a narrow axis in southern IN and northern KY to account. The
highest pops will roughly be along and several miles either side of
the I-64 corridor. Areas north and south of this region can expect
isolated to widely scattered light rain showers through the morning
and early afternoon.
Refer to the 20/00z or 20/06z NAM or recent runs of the HRRR as they
appear to have a good handle on what will transpire with light rain
today.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014
Things are quiet across the CWA at this hour, with only some mid and
upper level sky cover in place, and temperatures running in the low
and mid 40s. Will watch chances for isolated to scattered rain
showers increase over the next few hours ahead of a PV anomaly
diving in from the upper Midwest. Light rain showers have already
begun to organize from NW Indiana through southern Missouri ahead of
this feature, and expect a cluster of these showers to mainly focus
over southern Indiana and northern Kentucky later this morning. Less
impressed with measurable rain chances across south central KY where
there will be less moisture and more displaced from the best
forcing. Can`t rule out an isolated sprinkle, but think measurable
rain will be hard to come by. Will see temperatures warm to the mid
and upper 60s today on a steady SW wind, despite the lack of strong
solar insolation.
Will keep an chances for an isolated shower in across the far NE
into the late evening hours where deep moisture will be most
impressive. Things should dry out after Midnight. Will see milder
lows tonight under cloud cover and a somewhat mixy near-surface
environment.
Will have one more shot at isolated light rain showers across our NE
on Tuesday morning as another wave dives into the mean trough over
the eastern CONUS, and combines with the lingering low level
moisture. Most spots will stay dry this day with a fairly sizable
temperature gradient across the CWA. Look for upper 50s NE to mid to
upper 60s SW.
.LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014
An extended period of tranquil fall weather is on the way, with no
precip chances in the forecast through Sunday. The middle of the
week will feature shortwave ridging aloft, but Canadian surface high
pressure will be drawn southward behind a slowly departing East
Coast low. This will keep out temps below normal for most of the
work week. Coldest mornings will be Thursday with the surface ridge
axis directly over the Ohio Valley, and Friday as favorable
radiational cooling conditions persist. More sheltered/rural
locations could see lows in the 30s, and frost can`t be ruled out
either.
By the weekend, the next upper shortwave trof will weaken as it
heads into the Great Lakes, and with precipitable water values
barely touching climo, the only sensible weather impact will likely
be an increase in cloud cover. Temps will recover to near or above
climo as upper ridge starts to build from the SW, but that could be
limited by N-NE low-level flow depending on how strongly the surface
high is reinforced by the weakening upper impulse. Current forecast
is more in line with the raw model consensus, but if the upper
ridging wins out extended GFS MOS highs in the 70s could be the way
to go.
&&
.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 648 AM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014
Expecting VFR conditions to prevail outside of any rain showers,
however SDF/LEX will have the best shot at some brief MVFR
visibilities in moderate rain this morning. A fairly solid line of
showers has developed over southern Indiana ahead of an upper level
disturbance and will slide across SDF/LEX through the morning. Best
timing at SDF should be between 8 and 10 AM EDT, and the best timing
at LEX should be between 9 AM and 1 PM EDT. Ceilings are expected to
remain VFR.
BWG will have a shot an an isolated shower or two, however coverage
should be less so will only mention VCSH for now. Otherwise, expect
steady SW winds up between 10 and 15 mph later this afternoon.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Update.........EER/BJS
Short Term.....BJS
Long Term......RAS
Aviation.......BJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
648 AM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
...Forecast Update...
Issued at 615 AM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014
A narrow line of showers has developed over southern Indiana ahead
of an approaching PV anomaly from the NW. These light showers will
continue to push east across the northern half of the CWA through
the morning. Have increased chances to likely (60-70% coverage)
along a narrow axis in southern IN and northern KY to account. The
highest pops will roughly be along and several miles either side of
the I-64 corridor. Areas north and south of this region can expect
isolated to widely scattered light rain showers through the morning
and early afternoon.
Refer to the 20/00z or 20/06z NAM or recent runs of the HRRR as they
appear to have a good handle on what will transpire with light rain
today.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014
Things are quiet across the CWA at this hour, with only some mid and
upper level sky cover in place, and temperatures running in the low
and mid 40s. Will watch chances for isolated to scattered rain
showers increase over the next few hours ahead of a PV anomaly
diving in from the upper Midwest. Light rain showers have already
begun to organize from NW Indiana through southern Missouri ahead of
this feature, and expect a cluster of these showers to mainly focus
over southern Indiana and northern Kentucky later this morning. Less
impressed with measurable rain chances across south central KY where
there will be less moisture and more displaced from the best
forcing. Can`t rule out an isolated sprinkle, but think measurable
rain will be hard to come by. Will see temperatures warm to the mid
and upper 60s today on a steady SW wind, despite the lack of strong
solar insolation.
Will keep an chances for an isolated shower in across the far NE
into the late evening hours where deep moisture will be most
impressive. Things should dry out after Midnight. Will see milder
lows tonight under cloud cover and a somewhat mixy near-surface
environment.
Will have one more shot at isolated light rain showers across our NE
on Tuesday morning as another wave dives into the mean trough over
the eastern CONUS, and combines with the lingering low level
moisture. Most spots will stay dry this day with a fairly sizable
temperature gradient across the CWA. Look for upper 50s NE to mid to
upper 60s SW.
.LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014
An extended period of tranquil fall weather is on the way, with no
precip chances in the forecast through Sunday. The middle of the
week will feature shortwave ridging aloft, but Canadian surface high
pressure will be drawn southward behind a slowly departing East
Coast low. This will keep out temps below normal for most of the
work week. Coldest mornings will be Thursday with the surface ridge
axis directly over the Ohio Valley, and Friday as favorable
radiational cooling conditions persist. More sheltered/rural
locations could see lows in the 30s, and frost can`t be ruled out
either.
By the weekend, the next upper shortwave trof will weaken as it
heads into the Great Lakes, and with precipitable water values
barely touching climo, the only sensible weather impact will likely
be an increase in cloud cover. Temps will recover to near or above
climo as upper ridge starts to build from the SW, but that could be
limited by N-NE low-level flow depending on how strongly the surface
high is reinforced by the weakening upper impulse. Current forecast
is more in line with the raw model consensus, but if the upper
ridging wins out extended GFS MOS highs in the 70s could be the way
to go.
&&
.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 648 AM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014
Expecting VFR conditions to prevail outside of any rain showers,
however SDF/LEX will have the best shot at some brief MVFR
visibilities in moderate rain this morning. A fairly solid line of
showers has developed over southern Indiana ahead of an upper level
disturbance and will slide across SDF/LEX through the morning. Best
timing at SDF should be between 8 and 10 AM EDT, and the best timing
at LEX should be between 9 AM and 1 PM EDT. Ceilings are expected to
remain VFR.
BWG will have a shot an an isolated shower or two, however coverage
should be less so will only mention VCSH for now. Otherwise, expect
steady SW winds up between 10 and 15 mph later this afternoon.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Update.........BJS
Short Term.....BJS
Long Term......RAS
Aviation.......BJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
616 AM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014
...Forecast Update...
Issued at 615 AM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014
A narrow line of showers has developed over southern Indiana ahead
of an approaching PV anomaly from the NW. These light showers will
continue to push east across the northern half of the CWA through
the morning. Have increased chances to likely (60-70% coverage)
along a narrow axis in southern IN and northern KY to account. The
highest pops will roughly be along and several miles either side of
the I-64 corridor. Areas north and south of this region can expect
isolated to widely scattered light rain showers through the morning
and early afternoon.
Refer to the 20/00z or 20/06z NAM or recent runs of the HRRR as they
appear to have a good handle on what will transpire with light rain
today.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014
Things are quiet across the CWA at this hour, with only some mid and
upper level sky cover in place, and temperatures running in the low
and mid 40s. Will watch chances for isolated to scattered rain
showers increase over the next few hours ahead of a PV anomaly
diving in from the upper Midwest. Light rain showers have already
begun to organize from NW Indiana through southern Missouri ahead of
this feature, and expect a cluster of these showers to mainly focus
over southern Indiana and northern Kentucky later this morning. Less
impressed with measurable rain chances across south central KY where
there will be less moisture and more displaced from the best
forcing. Can`t rule out an isolated sprinkle, but think measurable
rain will be hard to come by. Will see temperatures warm to the mid
and upper 60s today on a steady SW wind, despite the lack of strong
solar insolation.
Will keep an chances for an isolated shower in across the far NE
into the late evening hours where deep moisture will be most
impressive. Things should dry out after Midnight. Will see milder
lows tonight under cloud cover and a somewhat mixy near-surface
environment.
Will have one more shot at isolated light rain showers across our NE
on Tuesday morning as another wave dives into the mean trough over
the eastern CONUS, and combines with the lingering low level
moisture. Most spots will stay dry this day with a fairly sizable
temperature gradient across the CWA. Look for upper 50s NE to mid to
upper 60s SW.
.LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014
An extended period of tranquil fall weather is on the way, with no
precip chances in the forecast through Sunday. The middle of the
week will feature shortwave ridging aloft, but Canadian surface high
pressure will be drawn southward behind a slowly departing East
Coast low. This will keep out temps below normal for most of the
work week. Coldest mornings will be Thursday with the surface ridge
axis directly over the Ohio Valley, and Friday as favorable
radiational cooling conditions persist. More sheltered/rural
locations could see lows in the 30s, and frost can`t be ruled out
either.
By the weekend, the next upper shortwave trof will weaken as it
heads into the Great Lakes, and with precipitable water values
barely touching climo, the only sensible weather impact will likely
be an increase in cloud cover. Temps will recover to near or above
climo as upper ridge starts to build from the SW, but that could be
limited by N-NE low-level flow depending on how strongly the surface
high is reinforced by the weakening upper impulse. Current forecast
is more in line with the raw model consensus, but if the upper
ridging wins out extended GFS MOS highs in the 70s could be the way
to go.
&&
.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 105 AM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014
VFR conditions will prevail at the TAF sites for much of the
overnight, however will focus on an incoming disturbance toward the
later morning hours. Ceilings are currently broken above 10 K feet,
however expect ceilings to gradually lower toward dawn, but remain
VFR. Some light rain showers will be possible at SDF/LEX ahead of a
mid level disturbance with the best timing between 7 and 9 AM EDT at
SDF, and between 9 and 11 AM EDT at LEX. Think these showers will be
light enough that visibilities should stay above 6 SM, however
cannot rule out a brief drop into MVFR.
Otherwise, surface winds will be light out of the south, gradually
increasing in strength and veering to SW through the day. Low and
mid level clouds will hang around this evening, however expect just
above the MVFR/VFR threshold at this time.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Update.........BJS
Short Term.....BJS
Long Term......RAS
Aviation.......BJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
924 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
DAMP AND COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL UPPER LOW PRESSURE
SHIFTS EASTWARD DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
930PM UPDATE...CONTINUE TO RELY ON LATEST SAT/RADAR IMAGES AND
LATEST HRRR MODEL RUN TO PUT TOGETHER POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT.
SHOWER COVERAGE HAS BEEN SLOWLY DECREASING AS IT DRIFTS SOUTHWARD
OVER EASTERN THIRD OF MY FA. LOOKS TO BE A SMALL UPPER LEVEL WAVE
THAT IS DRIVING THE PRECIPITATION. TEMPS HAVE ALSO BEEN ADJUSTED
WITH LATEST LAMP NUMBERS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
IMPRESSIVE CIRCULATION PRESENT ON CURRENT RADAR AS A DECAYING LOW-
TOPPED MCV HAS STALLED NEAR JEFFERSON COUNTY PA. DESPITE ENHANCED
RADAR REFLECTIVITIES ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF THE CIRCULATION...THE
HIGHEST RAINFALL REPORTS RECEIVED HAVE BEEN AROUND 1/3" PER HR.
EXAMINATION OF THE INDIVIDUAL RADAR SLICES REVEALS THAT A GOOD
PORTION OF THE ENHANCEMENT IS DUE TO BRIGHT BANDING...WITH
FREEZING LEVELS RIGHT AROUND 7KFT.
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ANOTHER SW TROF SWINGING SOUTH
THROUGH OHIO WITH AN ATTENDANT VORT MAX THROUGH SRN OHIO. THIS
GENERATED LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE SRN SHORE OF LAKE
ERIE THAT HAVE SINCE DE-TATCHED FROM THE LAKE AND HAVE CONGEALED WITH
THE BACK EDGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED CIRCULATION. THIS VORT WILL
EFFECTIVELY CUT-OFF THE UPPER LOW AND ALLOW IT TO DRIFT RIGHT
OVERTOP OF US. WITH COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF LLVL MOISTURE AND THE COLD
POOL ALOFT...FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN RAIN
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED EAST OF LAKE-ENHANCED AXIS OF RAIN SHOWERS.
TONIGHT THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS SOUTH OF THE AREA...ENHANCING NRLY
FLOW ALOFT WRAPPING MOISTURE BACK AROUND THE SYSTEM. THE LLVL FLOW
WILL REMAIN NWRLY ENABLING AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT...THUS WILL
CONTINUE THE LIKELY POPS IN THE SE RIDGES. ELSEWHERE...MULTIPLE
WEAK MID-LEVEL VORTS ARE PROGGED TO SWING AROUND THE PARENT
LOW...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO AID THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS. KEEPING CHC POPS IN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THROUGH WEDS
MORNING. WITH TEMPS MODERATED BY CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY...LARGE MODIFICATIONS WERE NOT NECESSARY.
TAX
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NORTHWESTERLY AND NORTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY AS LOW LEVEL
SHEAR SLOWLY INCREASES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR UNSTABLE UPSLOPE
FLOW SHOWERS TO SLOWLY WIND DOWN DURING THE PERIOD. SOME CLEARING
SHOULD START TO WORK ITS WAY FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA AS
LAYER MOISTURE SLOWLY PEELS OFF TO THE EAST AS WELL.
YESTERDAY`S GFS...AND NOW TODAY`S ECMWF AND GFS BOTH INDICATE A
SOMEWHAT ANOMALOUS LOOKING SHORT WAVE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD DOWN
THE FRONT FLANK OF THE UPPER RIDGE THAT BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA BY
LATE IN THE WEEK. DEEP MOISTURE DOES NO SEEM PARTICULARLY EVIDENT
WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND THE DEPTH OF THE SYSTEM IS NOT PARTICULARLY
WELL AGREED UPON. GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE GFS HAS BEEN A BIT MORE
CONSISTENT WITH THE FEATURE IN ITS RUNS...TIMING AND PLACEMENT
CLOSER TO THE GFS WAS FAVORED...WHICH WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATE IN THE WEEK...AND A VERY VERY SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A FLEETING SPRINKLE. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
THEIR SLOW TREND TO CREEP BACK TOWARD NORMAL. FRIES
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BLDG RIDGING ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS WL SHIFT E THRU ERLY NXT WK
KEEPING DRY WEA IN THE FCST. SEASONALLY COOL TEMPS ARE EXP TO PUSH
ABV AVG LVLS BY ERLY NXT WK.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP THE REGION SOCKED IN WITH
CLOUDS THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
SLOWLY ROTATES ACROSS...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. MANY OF THESE WILL
CONCENTRATE ALONG THE RIDGES. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
AREAWIDE INTO MIDMORNING ON WEDNESDAY. CIGS COULD IMPROVE TO VFR
BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN OHIO AND WESTERN PA. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST.
.AVIATION /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DUE TO THE LARGE AND SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...PERIODIC
RSTRNS COULD LAST THROUGH THURS IN SCATTERED SHRA.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
626 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER CHANCES WILL RESUME AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
UNTIL UPPER LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD LATER THIS WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TWEAKED ERLY MRNG HRLY GRIDS BASED ON LATEST OBS/TRENDS FOR THE
PREDAWN UPDT.
PREVIOUS DISC...WARM ADVCTN AND THICKENING CLD COVER WL PRECLUDE
MUCH MORE OF A TEMP DROP THIS MRNG...WITH MANY READINGS FM ALNG
AND N OF I 70 RISING. THE FROST ADVISORY FOR THE CNTIES
SURROUNDING MORGANTOWN WAS THUS DROPPED EARLY AS WIDESPREAD FROST
IS NOT ANTICIPATED WITH EXTENSIVE CIRROSTRATUS SHIELD/ENCROACHING
ALTOSTRATUS AND GENL TEMPS IN THE UPR 30S IN THE ADVISORY AREA
EXPECTED TO BEGIN RISING BEFORE SUNRISE.
OTHERWISE...THE APCHG SHRTWV THAT IS SPEWING UPR AND MID LVL CLDINESS
OVR THE REGION...IS STILL EXPECTED TO GENERATE SHWRS OVR BY EVE.
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS FOR LGT PCPN HAVE BEEN CONTINUED...BUT
OVRALL NMBRS WERE TEMPERED AND TIMING FURTHER ADJUSTED FOR A
LATER START GIVEN THE DEPTH OF THE DRY LYR ON THE EVE SNDING AS
WELL AS THE LATEST MDL TRENDS.
MRNG TEMPS WERE FORECAST USING HRLY LAMP GUIDANCE AND RAP NMBRS...WHILE
COOL DAYTIME HIGHS WERE TWEAKED USING GFS MOSGUIDE TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A JET STREAK MOVG THROUGH THE WRN FLANK OF THE EWD SHIFT UPR TROF
IS PROGGED TO CARVE A CUTOFF LOW OVR THE UPR OH VALLEY REGION BY
LATE TUESDAY. COOLING MID LVLS WITH THAT SYSTEM WL LOWER CONVECTIVE
THRESHOLDS AND SPPRT SHWR ACTIVITY THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH PARTICULAR
EMPHASIS OVR UPSLOPE REGIONS TO THE N AND E OF PITTSBURGH.
BY THURSDAY...MDL WORLD PROJECTS SUFFICIENT COASTAL DVLPMNT/DEEPENING
TO DIMINISH POPS OVR THE IMMEDIATE AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IN SHRTWV/VORT
PROJECTIONS THROUGH THE WRN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM IS MINIMAL...SO
HAVE MAINTAINED AT LEAST SLGT POPS OVR THE RIDGES THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EWD PROGRESS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPR LOW WITH EXPANDING RIDGE OVR
THE CNTRL CONUS SHOULD ENSURE A GENLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL CLOSE
TO THE WEEK. TWEAKED WPC NMBRS WERE USED TO REPRESENT THE LONG TERM
PD.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDS ARE EXPD WITH INCRG AC THRU THIS AFTN AHD OF AN APCHG
SHRTWV. THIS SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED CDFNT IS EXPD TO BRING MVFR
CONDS AND INCRG SHWR CHCS THIS EVE AND OVRNGT. FKL/DUJ COULD ALSO
SEE IFR CIGS LT TNGT AS LLVL MOISTURE POOLS.
.AVIATION /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERIODIC RSTRNS ARE PSBL THRU MID WK AS AN UPR LOW DRIFTS ACRS THE
RGN.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
15/07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
338 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER CHANCES WILL RESUME AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
UNTIL UPPER LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD LATER THIS WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WARM ADVCTN AND THICKENING CLD COVER WL PRECLUDE MUCH MORE OF A
TEMP DROP THIS MRNG...WITH MANY READINGS FM ALNG AND N OF I 70
RISING. THE FROST ADVISORY FOR THE CNTIES SURROUNDING MORGANTOWN
WAS THUS DROPPED EARLY AS WIDESPREAD FROST IS NOT ANTICIPATED WITH
EXTENSIVE CIRROSTRATUS SHIELD/ENCROACHING ALTOSTRATUS AND GENL
TEMPS IN THE UPR 30S IN THE ADVISORY AREA EXPECTED TO BEGIN RISING
BEFORE SUNRISE.
OTHERWISE...THE APCHG SHRTWV THAT IS SPEWING UPR AND MID LVL CLDINESS
OVR THE REGION...IS STILL EXPECTED TO GENERATE SHWRS OVR BY EVE.
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS FOR LGT PCPN HAVE BEEN CONTINUED...BUT
OVRALL NMBRS WERE TEMPERED AND TIMING FURTHER ADJUSTED FOR A
LATER START GIVEN THE DEPTH OF THE DRY LYR ON THE EVE SNDING AS
WELL AS THE LATEST MDL TRENDS.
MRNG TEMPS WERE FORECAST USING HRLY LAMP GUIDANCE AND RAP NMBRS...WHILE
COOL DAYTIME HIGHS WERE TWEAKED USING GFS MOSGUIDE TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A JET STREAK MOVG THROUGH THE WRN FLANK OF THE EWD SHIFT UPR TROF
IS PROGGED TO CARVE A CUTOFF LOW OVR THE UPR OH VALLEY REGION BY
LATE TUESDAY. COOLING MID LVLS WITH THAT SYSTEM WL LOWER CONVECTIVE
THRESHOLDS AND SPPRT SHWR ACTIVITY THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH PARTICULAR
EMPHASIS OVR UPSLOPE REGIONS TO THE N AND E OF PITTSBURGH.
BY THURSDAY...MDL WORLD PROJECTS SUFFICIENT COASTAL DVLPMNT/DEEPENING
TO DIMINISH POPS OVR THE IMMEDIATE AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IN SHRTWV/VORT
PROJECTIONS THROUGH THE WRN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM IS MINIMAL...SO
HAVE MAINTAINED AT LEAST SLGT POPS OVR THE RIDGES THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EWD PROGRESS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPR LOW WITH EXPANDING RIDGE OVR
THE CNTRL CONUS SHOULD ENSURE A GENLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL CLOSE
TO THE WEEK. TWEAKED WPC NMBRS WERE USED TO REPRESENT THE LONG TERM
PD.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDS ARE EXPD WITH INCRG AC/CS THRU TDA AHD OF AN APCHG
SHRTWV. THIS SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED CDFNT IS EXPD TO BRING MVFR
CONDS AND INCRG SHWR CHCS THIS EVE AND OVRNGT.
.AVIATION /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERIODIC RSTRNS ARE PSBL THRU MID WK AS AN UPR LOW DRIFTS ACRS THE
RGN.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
15/07
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
1236 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER CHANCES AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE UNTIL UPPER LOW
PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD LATER THIS WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
POST MIDNGT UPDATE FEATURE ADJUSTMENTS TO CLD AND TEMPS BASED ON
THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL AND MDL TRENDS. IN GENL...WARM ADVCTN AND
INCRSG CLD COVER WL PRECLUDE MUCH MORE OF A TEMP DROP THIS MRNG.
FROST ADVISORY FOR THE CNTIES SURROUNDING MORGANTOWN WL RMN IN
EFFECT UNTIL THE CLDS AND SFC WIND OVR THAT AREA INCRS.
OTHERWISE...THE APCHG SHRTWV...WITH TROF AXIS OVR LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY
THIS MRNG...IS STILL EXPECTED TO GENERATE SHWRS OVR THE UPR OH REGION
BY EVE. LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS HAVE BEEN CONTINUED...BUT OVRALL
NMBRS WERE TEMPERED AND TIMING ADJUSTED FOR A LATER START GIVEN THE
DEPTH OF THE DRY LYR ON THE EVE SNDING AS WELL AS THE LATEST MDL
TRENDS.
MRNG TEMPS WERE FORECAST USING HRLY LAMP GUIDANCE AND RAP NMBRS...WHILE
COOL DAYTIME HIGHS WERE TWEAKED USING GFS MOSGUIDE TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A JET STREAK MOVG THROUGH THE WRN FLANK OF THE EWD SHIFT UPR TROF
IS PROGGED TO CARVE A CUTOFF LOW OVR THE UPR OH VALLEY REGION BY
LATE TUESDAY. COOLING MID LVLS WITH THAT SYSTEM WL LOWER CONVECTIVE
THRESHOLDS AND SPPRT SHWR ACTIVITY THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH PARTICULAR
EMPHASIS OVR UPSLOPE REGIONS TO THE N AND E OF PITTSBURGH.
BY THURSDAY...MDL WORLD PROJECTS SUFFICIENT COASTAL DVLPMNT/DEEPENING
TO DIMINISH POPS OVR THE IMMEDIATE AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IN SHRTWV/VORT
PROJECTIONS THROUGH THE WRN FLANK OF THE SYSTEM IS MINIMAL...SO
HAVE HELD AT LEAST SLGT POPS OVR THE RIDGES THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EWD PROGRESS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPR LOW SHOULD ENSURE A DRY AND
SEASONALLY COOL CLOSE TO THE WEEK. TWEAKED WPC NMBRS WERE USED TO
REPRESENT THE LONG TERM PD.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDS ARE EXPD WITH INCRG AC/CI THRU TDA AHD OF AN APCHG
SHRTWV. THIS SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED CDFNT IS EXPD TO BRING MVFR
CONDS AND INCRG SHWR CHCS THIS EVE AND OVRNGT.
.AVIATION /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERIODIC RSTRNS ARE PSBL THRU MID WK AS AN UPR LOW DRIFTS ACRS THE
RGN.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ012-
021-022.
&&
$$
15/07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
728 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM
THE SRN PLAINS THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO NW ONTARIO BETWEEN
TROUGHS OVER THE NW CONUS AND THE ERN GREAT LAKES. AT THE SFC...A
RIDGE EXTENDED FROM JAMES BAY THROUGH NRN ONTARIO TO LAKE SUPERIOR
RESULTING IN NE WINDS INTO UPPER MI. DAYTIME HEATING HAS FINALLY
HELPED DISSIPATE MOST OF THE REMAINING CLOUDS OVER WRN UPPER MI.
HOWEVER...SOME LAKE MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE NEAR THE SHORE
SUPPORTED SOME LINGERING CLOUDS FROM BIG BAY TO MUNISING.
TONIGHT...UNDER CLEAR SKIES...FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH PWAT VALUES DROPPING TO NEAR 0.15
INCH(25 PCT OF NORMAL) WHICH SHOULD DROP MIN TEMPS TOWARD THE LOWER
END OF GUIDANCE. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 20 TO 25 RANGE INLAND AND FROM
THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S CLOSER TO THE GREAT LAKES. WITH THE HIGH
SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST LATE...TEMPS MAY SLOWLY CLIMB LATE OVER THE
FAR WEST AS SRLY WINDS(BNDRY LAYER 15-20 KT) PRODUCE SOME MIXING.
SOME GROUND FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE MAINLY NEAR RIVER VALLEYS/LAKES AND
ESPECIALLY OVER THE S WHERE THE LIGHT SRLY FLOW OFF LAKE MI BRINGS IN
SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
WED...EVEN WITH A STRONG INVERSION...ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND 925 MB
TEMPS NEAR 6C...SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S EAST AND THE LOWER
50S WEST.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014
AT 00Z THURSDAY THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE STUCK UNDER A RIDGE
IN BETWEEN THE STRONG CUT OFF LOW SWINGING N OFF THE ATLANTIC
COAST...AND A TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE N PLAINS AND MANITOBA.
THE CANADIAN/N PLAINS TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS ONTARIO AND LAKE
SUPERIOR ON THURSDAY. JUST HOW THE TROUGH INTERACTS WITH THE CUT OFF
LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND STATES IS STILL IN QUESTION. THE ECMWF IS
QUICKER TO SCOOT THE TROUGH S OF THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY
MORNING...WHILE THE GFS STAYS WITH MORE OF A STEADY ELONGATED TROUGH
SLIDING W-E. THEY ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE IDEA OF RAIN AVERAGING
0.2IN OVER THE W HALF OF UPPER MI LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BEFORE DRYING UP AND EXITING THE AREA.
AFTER ZONAL FLOW FRIDAY...NW FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE CWA FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE 21/00Z ECMWF WAS A BIT FARTHER S AND QUICKER WITH THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE SWINGING IN FROM MANITOBA AND W ONTARIO...INDICATING
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS GLANCING N AREAS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE 12Z GFS AND
ECMWF RUNS ARE A BIT MORE IN LINE. BRISK NW FLOW WILL TAKE HOLD
SATURDAY /40-45KT 850MB LLJ/...WITH 850MB TEMPS FALLING FROM AROUND
6-8C AT DAYBREAK TO 0-5C BY THE END OF THE DAY /COOLEST OFF THE
ECMWF/.
THE NEXT SFC RIDGE WILL BE OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY...IN BETWEEN THE
EXITING LOW OVER HUDSON BAY AND QUEBEC...AND A NEARING LOW
DEVELOPING ACROSS S CENTRAL CANADA AND THE N PLAINS. AT THIS POINT
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHING ACROSS
WI/UPPER MI/LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE 21/00Z ECMWF
EJECTS THE SYSTEM TO THE NE QUICKLY MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY
MORNING...WHILE THE 21/06Z GFS RIDES AN ADDITIONAL LOW UP THE
TROUGH WHICH KEEPS LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY NIGHT OF NEXT WEEK. WHETHER OR NOT THE PROGRESSIVE BUT
DRAMATIC ECMWF SOLUTION PANS OUT IS STILL UNCERTAIN...AS IT WOULD
STRAND A CUT OFF LOW ACROSS THE S PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT THOUGH AT
LEAST MID WEEK. WILL CONTINUE WITH A BLENDED SOLUTION FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...UNTIL WE GET A BETTER VISION OF WHAT MAY HAPPEN
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE 12Z RUN OF THE ECMWF HAS ABANDONED THE CUT OFF
LOW SOLUTION OVER THE S PLAINS...AND LOOKS A BIT MORE LIKE THE
GFS...BUT A LOT WEAKER WITH LESS PRECIP.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 727 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014
WITH HI PRES DOMINATING THRU WED...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREDOMINATE AT ALL 3 TAF SITES. THE EXCEPTION WL BE AT SAW LATE
TNGT/EARLY WED...WHEN LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPS FALLING THRU CROSSOVER
DEWPT THIS AFTN WL ALLOW SOME FOG TO FORM. A SOMEWHAT STRONGER AND
DOWNSLOPE S WIND JUST ABV THE SFC AT IWD AND CMX WL LIMIT THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG AT THOSE SPOTS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS
LESS THAN 20 KTS OVER LK SUPERIOR FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. PASSAGE
OF A TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WILL LEAD TO INCREASING WNW WINDS TO 25 KTS
ON SATURDAY...STRONGEST OVER EAST HALF OF LK SUPERIOR.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
413 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES INTO THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES AND A RIDGE OVER
THE WRN PLAINS RESULTING IN NNW FLOW THROUGH THE THE WRN LAKES. AT
THE SFC...NNW WINDS PREVAILED BTWN LOW PRES OVER NRN LAKE HURON AND
HIGH PRES OVER NW ONTARIO. THE COMBINATION OF ABUNDANT SFC-800 MB
MOISTURE...CYCLONIC AND UPSLOPE NRLY FLOW AND 850 MB TEMPS AROUND
-1C (LAKE WATER TEMPS STILL NEAR 8C-9C) WAS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME
SCT LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES INTO W AND N CNTRL UPPER MI.
TONIGHT...UPSTREAM OBS MDLS SUGGEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST
AS 850 MB TEMPS FALL TO NEAR -4C...HELPING TO SUSTAIN SOME LIGHT
PCPN. AS THE NW ONTARIO HIGH BUILDS TO THE SE...VEERING WINDS TO
NNE WILL SHIFT THE REMAINING LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS MAINLY INTO N
CNTRL UPPER MI...WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW IS MAXIMIZED. EVEN THOUGH
WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS FALL BELOW 500 FT AGL...EXPECT THAT THE LAKE
OF ICE NUCLEI IN THE MOIST LAYER THAT ONLY EXTENDS TO NEAR
-5C...WILL NOT SUPPORT SNOW. CLOUDS WILL LINGER OVER MOST OF THE
AREA...KEEPING MIN READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. HOWEVER...THERE
MAY BE SOME CLEARING OVER THE EAST WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW FROM ONTARIO E
OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
TUE...THE LINGERING 2K-3K FT LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL KEEP
MOISTURE/CLOUDS TRAPPED INTO THE MORNING...ESPECIALLY DOWNSTREAM OF
MOISTENING OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. BY AFTERNOON...EXPECT ENOUGH
HEATING/MIXING AND DRY ADVECTION TO BRING DIMINISHING CLOUDS THAT
WILL PUSH TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 40S OVER THE S AND WEST WHILE LOWER
READINGS IN THE LOW 40S PREVAIL OVER THE NORTH.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING WILL BE DRY FOR THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES...AS THE 500MB TROUGH OVERHEAD TODAY DIGS INTO THE NE
U.S. THIS WILL SET UP RIDGING AT THE SFC AND ALOFT FOR THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES...WITH SLOWLY MODIFYING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. THE MAIN
CONCERN FOR THOSE WITH SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS STILL WILL BE
MORNING LOWS TUESDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL FALL AT OR BELOW 32F FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA EXCLUDING THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA.
THURSDAY...MODELS HAVE COME IN A BIT WETTER FOR THE
THURSDAY-THURSDAY EVENING TIME PERIOD AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DIGS
ACROSS ONTARIO AND MN DURING THE DAY. WHILE THE MAIN SFC LOW WILL
STILL BE OVER W CANADA AT THAT TIME...A SFC TROUGH OVER MANITOBA AND
NW MN THURSDAY MORNING WILL NEAR THE REGION. WITH UPPER MI STUCK IN
THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IN BETWEEN THE DEEPENING LOW OFF THE NE
COAST...AND THE CANADIAN LOW. LIMITED E PROGRESS OF SHOWERS IS STILL
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH POPS WERE INCREASED SLIGHTLY FOR THE W...AND
WERE EXTENDED INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF BACK
THIS SOLUTION.
LOOK FOR THE 500MB WAVE TO PUSH E OF LAKE SUPERIOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH ANY LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS ENDING. THE W CANADIAN
SFC LOW-500MB LOW WILL SHIFT INTO NE MANITOBA OVERNIGHT...WITH WARM
AIR SURGING INTO UPPER MI. 850MB TEMPS OF 8-12C LOOK REASONABLE
FRIDAY NIGHT ON WSW WINDS...WITH SFC TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 40S.
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE OUR TRANSITION PERIOD...AS ZONAL
FLOW SLIDES IN ALOFT...AND THE SFC RIDGE EXITS TO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE FCST GUIDANCE...SHOWING UP
ON THE IDEA OF HOW MUCH COLD AIR WILL BE ABLE TO SNEAK IN FROM THE
NW. THE 20/00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF HAS 850MB TEMPS AROUND 2C AT 00Z
SUNDAY...WHILE THE 20/12Z IS AT A MUCH MORE MILD 7C. WILL KEEP WITH
A MORE BLENDED SOLUTION FOR THE FCST STILL AT THIS POINT.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL BRING ABOUT A RETURN OF THE 500MB
RIDGE...EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH ONTARIO. THIS
RIDGE WILL SLOWLY EXIT TOWARD THE NEW ENGLAND STATES ON MONDAY AS A
TROUGH SETTLES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND NEARS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF WET WEATHER LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
OF NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPS REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014
EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO PREVAIL INTO TONIGHT...THOUGH A PERIOD OF IFR
CIGS SHOULD LINGER EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AT SAW. LAKE ENHANCED RAIN
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AT KSAW. THE
PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF WEST UPPER
MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT BUT SHOULD LINGER INTO TUE MORNING AT SAW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014
LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR NEAR WHITEFISH POINT WILL
MOVE TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT.
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BTWN THE EXITING LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE BUILDING OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO. EXPECT NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS INCREASING TO 25-30 KTS THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENING OVER
CNTRL AND EASTERN LK SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY MORNING
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES ACROSS LK SUPERIOR. WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KTS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH STRONGER
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES NORTHERN ONTARIO.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
141 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014
A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE SYSTEM MOVES
OUT BY TUESDAY NIGHT ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. THAT WILL ALLOW FOR AN EXTENDED
PERIOD MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SLOWLY WARMING TEMPERATURES.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014
MODIFIED POPS TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AS UPPER TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH. ALSO ADDED SOME DRIZZLE THIS AFTERNOON AS STRATOCU
PUSHES SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE CWA. RH PROFILES SHOW SOME LIFT IN
THE CLOUD LAYER AND THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 752 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014
I ADDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR FORECAST NEAR AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 94 FOR THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATEST RUN
OF THE RAP13 SHOWS VERTICAL TOTAL ARE AROUND 30C NEAR THE CONVECTION
CROSSING SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AT 735 AM THIS MORNING. OUR TOTAL
LIGHTNING TRACKER IS SHOWING A HIGH FREQUENCY OF IN- CLOUD
LIGHTING WITH THESE STORMS (6-10 PER MINUTES). RAP SOUNDING IN
FRONT OF THE CONVECTION (UPPER WAVE ) SHOW 300 TO 400 J/KG OF
CAPE. THE LATEST SPC SREF 3 HOUR THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITY SHOWS THE
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS GOES ALONG WITH THIS IDEA TOO. SO ALL
OF THIS TELLS ME THE LINE OF SHOWERS WILL KEPT MOVING EAST ACROSS
OUR SOUTHERN CWA THIS MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014
THE WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION IS ALMOST OUT OF THE AREA SO THAT
WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE FOR FORECAST TODAY. THE MAIN ISSUE FOR TODAY
IS THE OUTSIDE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON EAST OF
GRAND RAPIDS. ONCE THAT IS DONE WE DO GET INTO ANOTHER COLD POOL
OF AIR THAT TYPICALLY LEADS TO LAKE EFFECT SHOWER WHICH WOULD
OCCUR FROM THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
WHAT BRINGS THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER OUR SE CWA LATE THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IS THE 850 THERMAL RIDGE IS
UNDER THE 500 MB COLD POOL. SO THAT RESULTS IN VERTICAL TOTALS
NEAR 28C. THE 850 MB LI FALLS TO NEAR -1C OVER THE I-69 AREA
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON WHILE THIS IS HAPPENING. WE ALSO HAVE
THE EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET COMING INTO PLAY AT THIS TIME TO
HELP THE CAUSE. HOWEVER I DID NOT GO FOR THIS BECAUSE WHEN I
ACTUALLY LOOKED AT MODEL SOUNDINGS (RAP AND NAM) THERE IS AN
INVERSION NEAR 850 MB THAT WILL HARD TO OVERCOME. EVEN IF THAT CAN
BE OVERCOME THE CAPE IS VERY NARROW. SO MY SPIN WAS TO GO WITH
CHANCE POP FOR SHOWERS AND CALL THAT GOOD.
THE NEXT ISSUE IS LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS ONCE WE GET INTO THE 850
COLD POOL OF AIR TONIGHT. FOR A SHORT TIME... 6 PM TILL
MIDNIGHT... WE HAVE A MOIST LAYER TO NEAR 10000 FT WITH NORTH
WINDS BELOW THE INVERSION. THAT SHOULD RESULT OF IN LAKE EFFECT
SHOWERS OVER THE LAKE (NORTH WINDS) AND MAYBE TOUCHING THE POINTS
AND EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGAN AND VAN BUREN COUNTIES. THAT DOES NOT
LAST LONG... WINDS BECOME NORTH NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND PUSH
THAT SHOWERS OFF SHORE. BY 8 AM TUESDAY THE UPPER JET PASSES OVER
AHEAD AN INVERSION HEIGHTS CRASH TO NEAR 4000 FT AGL. SO WHAT EVER
THREAT THERE IS FOR SHOWERS QUICKLY ENDS.
WITH THE UPPER JET TO OUR EAST AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN I EXPECT CLEARING SKIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THUS ANOTHER
BELOW FREEZING NIGHT EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRING SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS FOR WEDNESDAY DURING THE DAY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AND BRING FAIR AND DRY WX. A CONSENSUS
OF LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT A MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THIS
WEAKENING SYSTEM SHOULD COME THROUGH DRY.
DRY AND MILD WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WAA. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL COME
THROUGH SATURDAY BUT THIS SYSTEM IS ALSO LACKING IN MOISTURE AND
SHOULD COME THROUGH DRY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 136 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014
A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE TAF SITES IN SOUTHWEST
LOWER MI WAS PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS AND EVEN AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM. IN ADDITION LOWER CLOUD BASES WERE NOTED WITH MANY
SITES UNDER 2K FEET. THIS FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST OF KJXN BY
20Z. A PATCH OF CLEARING WAS SEEN BEHIND THE FRONT AND GENERALLY
VFR CLOUDS WERE NOTED TOWARD KMKG AND KFFX. THIS SHOULD BE THE
PREVAILING CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. AS WE GO INTO THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...LOWER CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO ADVECT
DOWN FROM THE NORTH. THERE COULD BE SOME DRIZZLE AS WELL. MVFR
CLOUD BASES ARE EXPECTED...WITH A LOW RISK FOR IFR. NOT MUCH
CHANGES INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH MVFR CLOUDS TO PREVAIL.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014
WITH THE CORE OF WINDS TO 40 KNOTS MOVING EAST OF THE AREA BY
SUNRISE... WINDS WILL DECREASE FOR A TIME TILL THE COLD AIR POOL
AT MID LEVEL MOVES IN BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THEN I WOULD EXPECT
NORTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. SO I WILL
CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS IS AND CALL THAT GOOD.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS COMING WEEKEND (ECMWF AND GFS ) SO RIVER LEVELS SHOULD SLOWLY
FALL OVER TIME.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
UPDATE...93
SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...WDM
MARINE...WDM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1048 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014
A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE SYSTEM MOVES
OUT BY TUESDAY NIGHT ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. THAT WILL ALLOW FOR AN EXTENDED
PERIOD MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SLOWLY WARMING TEMPERATURES.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014
MODIFIED POPS TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AS UPPER TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH. ALSO ADDED SOME DRIZZLE THIS AFTERNOON AS STRATOCU
PUSHES SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE CWA. RH PROFILES SHOW SOME LIFT IN
THE CLOUD LAYER AND THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 752 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014
I ADDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR FORECAST NEAR AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 94 FOR THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATEST RUN
OF THE RAP13 SHOWS VERTICAL TOTAL ARE AROUND 30C NEAR THE CONVECTION
CROSSING SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AT 735 AM THIS MORNING. OUR TOTAL
LIGHTNING TRACKER IS SHOWING A HIGH FREQUENCY OF IN- CLOUD
LIGHTING WITH THESE STORMS (6-10 PER MINUTES). RAP SOUNDING IN
FRONT OF THE CONVECTION (UPPER WAVE ) SHOW 300 TO 400 J/KG OF
CAPE. THE LATEST SPC SREF 3 HOUR THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITY SHOWS THE
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS GOES ALONG WITH THIS IDEA TOO. SO ALL
OF THIS TELLS ME THE LINE OF SHOWERS WILL KEPT MOVING EAST ACROSS
OUR SOUTHERN CWA THIS MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014
THE WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION IS ALMOST OUT OF THE AREA SO THAT
WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE FOR FORECAST TODAY. THE MAIN ISSUE FOR TODAY
IS THE OUTSIDE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON EAST OF
GRAND RAPIDS. ONCE THAT IS DONE WE DO GET INTO ANOTHER COLD POOL
OF AIR THAT TYPICALLY LEADS TO LAKE EFFECT SHOWER WHICH WOULD
OCCUR FROM THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
WHAT BRINGS THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER OUR SE CWA LATE THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IS THE 850 THERMAL RIDGE IS
UNDER THE 500 MB COLD POOL. SO THAT RESULTS IN VERTICAL TOTALS
NEAR 28C. THE 850 MB LI FALLS TO NEAR -1C OVER THE I-69 AREA
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON WHILE THIS IS HAPPENING. WE ALSO HAVE
THE EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET COMING INTO PLAY AT THIS TIME TO
HELP THE CAUSE. HOWEVER I DID NOT GO FOR THIS BECAUSE WHEN I
ACTUALLY LOOKED AT MODEL SOUNDINGS (RAP AND NAM) THERE IS AN
INVERSION NEAR 850 MB THAT WILL HARD TO OVERCOME. EVEN IF THAT CAN
BE OVERCOME THE CAPE IS VERY NARROW. SO MY SPIN WAS TO GO WITH
CHANCE POP FOR SHOWERS AND CALL THAT GOOD.
THE NEXT ISSUE IS LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS ONCE WE GET INTO THE 850
COLD POOL OF AIR TONIGHT. FOR A SHORT TIME... 6 PM TILL
MIDNIGHT... WE HAVE A MOIST LAYER TO NEAR 10000 FT WITH NORTH
WINDS BELOW THE INVERSION. THAT SHOULD RESULT OF IN LAKE EFFECT
SHOWERS OVER THE LAKE (NORTH WINDS) AND MAYBE TOUCHING THE POINTS
AND EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGAN AND VAN BUREN COUNTIES. THAT DOES NOT
LAST LONG... WINDS BECOME NORTH NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND PUSH
THAT SHOWERS OFF SHORE. BY 8 AM TUESDAY THE UPPER JET PASSES OVER
AHEAD AN INVERSION HEIGHTS CRASH TO NEAR 4000 FT AGL. SO WHAT EVER
THREAT THERE IS FOR SHOWERS QUICKLY ENDS.
WITH THE UPPER JET TO OUR EAST AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN I EXPECT CLEARING SKIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THUS ANOTHER
BELOW FREEZING NIGHT EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRING SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS FOR WEDNESDAY DURING THE DAY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AND BRING FAIR AND DRY WX. A CONSENSUS
OF LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT A MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THIS
WEAKENING SYSTEM SHOULD COME THROUGH DRY.
DRY AND MILD WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WAA. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL COME
THROUGH SATURDAY BUT THIS SYSTEM IS ALSO LACKING IN MOISTURE AND
SHOULD COME THROUGH DRY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 752 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014
CURRENTLY THE THERMAL RIDGE AT LOW LEVELS IS CROSSING SOUTHWEST
LOWER MICHIGAN. THAT IS HELPING TO KEEP THE CEILINGS WELL ABOVE
MVFR LEVELS THIS MORNING. HOWEVER ONCE THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT
COMES THROUGH DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON I WOULD EXPECT
EXTENSIVE MVFR CIGS TO SPREAD OVER ALL OF OUR TAF SITES. THOSE
LOWER CEILING WILL LAST INTO THE DAY TIME HOURS OF TUESDAY.
MEANWHILE...I PUT VCTS IN THE I-94 TAFS FOR THE CONVECTION THAT WILL
BE CROSSING THE AREA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE ONLY TAF SITE I
ACTUALLY PUT SHOWERS IN THE TAF MKG. THAT WAS FOR EARLY THIS
EVENING FOR NORTH WIND LAKE EFFECT BETWEEN 01Z AND 04Z. AFTER THAT
THE WINDS TURN MORE NORTH NORTHEAST AND THAT WILL PUSH THE SHOWERS
OFF SHORE.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014
WITH THE CORE OF WINDS TO 40 KNOTS MOVING EAST OF THE AREA BY
SUNRISE... WINDS WILL DECREASE FOR A TIME TILL THE COLD AIR POOL
AT MID LEVEL MOVES IN BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THEN I WOULD EXPECT
NORTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. SO I WILL
CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS IS AND CALL THAT GOOD.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS COMING WEEKEND (ECMWF AND GFS ) SO RIVER LEVELS SHOULD SLOWLY
FALL OVER TIME.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
UPDATE...93
SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...WDM
MARINE...WDM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
753 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE/AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014
A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE SYSTEM MOVES
OUT BY TUESDAY NIGHT ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. THAT WILL ALLOW FOR AN EXTENDED
PERIOD MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SLOWLY WARMING TEMPERATURES.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 752 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014
I ADDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR FORECAST NEAR AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 94 FOR THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATEST RUN
OF THE RAP13 SHOWS VERTICAL TOTAL ARE AROUND 30C NEAR THE CONVECTION
CROSSING SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AT 735 AM THIS MORNING. OUR TOTAL
LIGHTNING TRACKER IS SHOWING A HIGH FREQUENCY OF IN- CLOUD
LIGHTING WITH THESE STORMS (6-10 PER MINUTES). RAP SOUNDING IN
FRONT OF THE CONVECTION (UPPER WAVE ) SHOW 300 TO 400 J/KG OF
CAPE. THE LATEST SPC SREF 3 HOUR THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITY SHOWS THE
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS GOES ALONG WITH THIS IDEA TOO. SO ALL
OF THIS TELLS ME THE LINE OF SHOWERS WILL KEPT MOVING EAST ACROSS
OUR SOUTHERN CWA THIS MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014
THE WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION IS ALMOST OUT OF THE AREA SO THAT
WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE FOR FORECAST TODAY. THE MAIN ISSUE FOR TODAY
IS THE OUTSIDE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON EAST OF
GRAND RAPIDS. ONCE THAT IS DONE WE DO GET INTO ANOTHER COLD POOL
OF AIR THAT TYPICALLY LEADS TO LAKE EFFECT SHOWER WHICH WOULD
OCCUR FROM THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
WHAT BRINGS THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER OUR SE CWA LATE THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IS THE 850 THERMAL RIDGE IS
UNDER THE 500 MB COLD POOL. SO THAT RESULTS IN VERTICAL TOTALS
NEAR 28C. THE 850 MB LI FALLS TO NEAR -1C OVER THE I-69 AREA
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON WHILE THIS IS HAPPENING. WE ALSO HAVE
THE EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET COMING INTO PLAY AT THIS TIME TO
HELP THE CAUSE. HOWEVER I DID NOT GO FOR THIS BECAUSE WHEN I
ACTUALLY LOOKED AT MODEL SOUNDINGS (RAP AND NAM) THERE IS AN
INVERSION NEAR 850 MB THAT WILL HARD TO OVERCOME. EVEN IF THAT CAN
BE OVERCOME THE CAPE IS VERY NARROW. SO MY SPIN WAS TO GO WITH
CHANCE POP FOR SHOWERS AND CALL THAT GOOD.
THE NEXT ISSUE IS LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS ONCE WE GET INTO THE 850
COLD POOL OF AIR TONIGHT. FOR A SHORT TIME... 6 PM TILL
MIDNIGHT... WE HAVE A MOIST LAYER TO NEAR 10000 FT WITH NORTH
WINDS BELOW THE INVERSION. THAT SHOULD RESULT OF IN LAKE EFFECT
SHOWERS OVER THE LAKE (NORTH WINDS) AND MAYBE TOUCHING THE POINTS
AND EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGAN AND VAN BUREN COUNTIES. THAT DOES NOT
LAST LONG... WINDS BECOME NORTH NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND PUSH
THAT SHOWERS OFF SHORE. BY 8 AM TUESDAY THE UPPER JET PASSES OVER
AHEAD AN INVERSION HEIGHTS CRASH TO NEAR 4000 FT AGL. SO WHAT EVER
THREAT THERE IS FOR SHOWERS QUICKLY ENDS.
WITH THE UPPER JET TO OUR EAST AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN I EXPECT CLEARING SKIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THUS ANOTHER
BELOW FREEZING NIGHT EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRING SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS FOR WEDNESDAY DURING THE DAY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AND BRING FAIR AND DRY WX. A CONSENSUS
OF LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT A MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THIS
WEAKENING SYSTEM SHOULD COME THROUGH DRY.
DRY AND MILD WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WAA. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL COME
THROUGH SATURDAY BUT THIS SYSTEM IS ALSO LACKING IN MOISTURE AND
SHOULD COME THROUGH DRY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 752 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014
CURRENTLY THE THERMAL RIDGE AT LOW LEVELS IS CROSSING SOUTHWEST
LOWER MICHIGAN. THAT IS HELPING TO KEEP THE CEILINGS WELL ABOVE
MVFR LEVELS THIS MORNING. HOWEVER ONCE THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT
COMES THROUGH DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON I WOULD EXPECT
EXTENSIVE MVFR CIGS TO SPREAD OVER ALL OF OUR TAF SITES. THOSE
LOWER CEILING WILL LAST INTO THE DAY TIME HOURS OF TUESDAY.
MEANWHILE...I PUT VCTS IN THE I-94 TAFS FOR THE CONVECTION THAT WILL
BE CROSSING THE AREA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE ONLY TAF SITE I
ACTUALLY PUT SHOWERS IN THE TAF MKG. THAT WAS FOR EARLY THIS
EVENING FOR NORTH WIND LAKE EFFECT BETWEEN 01Z AND 04Z. AFTER THAT
THE WINDS TURN MORE NORTH NORTHEAST AND THAT WILL PUSH THE SHOWERS
OFF SHORE.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014
WITH THE CORE OF WINDS TO 40 KNOTS MOVING EAST OF THE AREA BY
SUNRISE... WINDS WILL DECREASE FOR A TIME TILL THE COLD AIR POOL
AT MID LEVEL MOVES IN BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THEN I WOULD EXPECT
NORTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. SO I WILL
CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS IS AND CALL THAT GOOD.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS COMING WEEKEND (ECMWF AND GFS ) SO RIVER LEVELS SHOULD SLOWLY
FALL OVER TIME.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WDM
SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...WDM
MARINE...WDM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
301 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014
THE CURRENT DISTURBANCE BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT ACROSS THE E THIRD OF THE CWA THIS EVENING.
LOOKING UPSTREAM...A THICK LAYER OF IFR CEILING LOOKS TO BE IN STORE
FOR MUCH OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW A TREND
SIMILAR TO THE HRRR FOR TIMING...AS IT/S HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE
PRECIP SO FAR. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN REPORTED ACROSS N
ONTARIO AS WELL AS CENTRAL AND N MANITOBA. SNOW WILL NOT BE THE
LIKELY PRECIP TYPE ACROSS UPPER MI THROUGH...IF ANY PRECIPITATION
DOES FALL TONIGHT IT SHOULD BE ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW. THIS IS
DISPUTE THE RETURN OF NNW FLOW BEHIND THE SFC LOW THAT WILL BE
SHIFTING OVERHEAD...MOVING FROM THE W THIRD OF THE CWA BY 00Z MONDAY
TO THE E HALF 06-12Z MONDAY. SFC TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN
THE LOW 40S.
AN ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM HUDSON BAY
THROUGH MANITOBA AND W MN AT DAYBREAK MONDAY WILL SLOWLY INVADE
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS....ALONG WITH A SERIES OF WAVES IN THE
N-NNW FLOW AT 500MB. FAVORABLE UPSLOPE NEAR SFC N-NNW WINDS
REMAINING ON MONDAY...AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW
850MB...AND COOL 850MB TEMPS AROUND -1C...WILL RESULT IN LIGHT
SHOWER/DRIZZLE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE DAY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. LAKE
ENHANCEMENT WILL REMAIN LIMITED DUE TO THE MARGINAL DELTA-T
VALUES...WITH LAKE SUPERIOR STILL AROUND 7C. TEMPS WILL NOT CLIMB
MUCH PAST THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014
THE UPPER TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY SWEEPING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL BE EXITING THE AREA ON TUESDAY MORNING...ALLOWING
AN UPPER/SURFACE RIDGE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA. THESE RIDGES WILL BE
OVER THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND LEAD TO DRY WEATHER FOR THE
START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE ONLY ITEM OF CONCERN FOR THIS
PERIOD WILL BE THE LINGERING CLOUDS OVER THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING
WITH THE LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR AND MOISTURE
TRAPPED BELOW THE LOWERING INVERSION (ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL WITH UPSLOPE FLOW). THESE CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE
DAY AS THE INVERSION CONTINUES TO LOWER UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE. HIGHS WILL STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY (40S)
WITH THE LIGHT FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE THERMAL TROUGH
STARTING TO DEPART THE AREA. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...SHOULD SEE ANOTHER COLD NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY
NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE LOW END OF GUIDANCE AND HAVE SOME
INTERIOR LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL REBOUND
TOWARDS MORE NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR (UPPER 40S TO MID
50S)...WITH THE WARMEST VALUES OVER THE WEST WHERE THE RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS EARLIER.
THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN WILL COME LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS AN ELONGATED SHORTWAVE RUNS INTO THE UPPER RIDGE IN
PLACE OVER THE AREA AND WEAKENS. MODELS HAVE VARYING SOLUTIONS ON
HOW THIS WILL EVOLVE...BUT THE GENERAL IDEA FOR A WEAKENING COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION IS CONSISTENT.
THUS...WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW SLIGHT CHANCES MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CWA BUT WILL KEEP IT FROM SHIFTING INTO THE EASTERN
CWA.
BEHIND THE WEAKENING FRONT AND SHORTWAVE...FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A
NICE DAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES UNDER DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND ON HOW HIGH WE WILL BE ABLE TO MIX INTO
THE WARM AIR ALOFT (850MB TEMPS AROUND 14C)...BUT CURRENT MODEL
FORECASTS HAVE MIXING TO AROUND 925MB WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE
INVERSION. THIS WOULD KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT AND BRUSHING THE
AREA ON SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURES WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND WITH THE BEST
FORCING/MOISTURE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY AND SHOW MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR SATURDAY. AN UPPER
RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH WILL QUICKLY BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA FOR
SUNDAY AND ALLOW FOR CLEAR SKIES AND NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
HIGHS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 218 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014
VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY WILL SLOWLY FALL TO MVFR AND EVEN POSSIBLY
IFR THROUGH THIS MORNING. BEST CHANCE OF IFR CEILINGS WILL BE AT KIWD
THIS MORNING...THEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AT KSAW AS WINDS
TURN NORTH TO NORTHEAST. LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
BEGINNING AROUND DAYBREAK AND LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014
LOW PRESSURE OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
OVERNIGHT...AND EXIT ACROSS LAKE HURON ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
EASTERN MANITOBA AND W MINNESOTA MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL BUILD ACROSS
ONTARIO/LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER PERIOD OF MAINLY
N GUSTS TO 25KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING OVER
CENTRAL AND E LAKE SUPERIOR. A RIDGE WILL LINGER ACROSS E LAKE
SUPERIOR INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS QUEBEC. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD LINGER INTO
FRIDAY...AS LAKE SUPERIOR GETS STUCK BETWEEN DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA...AND ANOTHER LOW NEARING FROM CENTRAL
CANADA.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
227 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014
THE CURRENT DISTURBANCE BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT ACROSS THE E THIRD OF THE CWA THIS EVENING.
LOOKING UPSTREAM...A THICK LAYER OF IFR CEILING LOOKS TO BE IN STORE
FOR MUCH OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW A TREND
SIMILAR TO THE HRRR FOR TIMING...AS IT/S HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE
PRECIP SO FAR. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN REPORTED ACROSS N
ONTARIO AS WELL AS CENTRAL AND N MANITOBA. SNOW WILL NOT BE THE
LIKELY PRECIP TYPE ACROSS UPPER MI THROUGH...IF ANY PRECIPITATION
DOES FALL TONIGHT IT SHOULD BE ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW. THIS IS
DISPUTE THE RETURN OF NNW FLOW BEHIND THE SFC LOW THAT WILL BE
SHIFTING OVERHEAD...MOVING FROM THE W THIRD OF THE CWA BY 00Z MONDAY
TO THE E HALF 06-12Z MONDAY. SFC TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN
THE LOW 40S.
AN ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM HUDSON BAY
THROUGH MANITOBA AND W MN AT DAYBREAK MONDAY WILL SLOWLY INVADE
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS....ALONG WITH A SERIES OF WAVES IN THE
N-NNW FLOW AT 500MB. FAVORABLE UPSLOPE NEAR SFC N-NNW WINDS
REMAINING ON MONDAY...AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW
850MB...AND COOL 850MB TEMPS AROUND -1C...WILL RESULT IN LIGHT
SHOWER/DRIZZLE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE DAY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. LAKE
ENHANCEMENT WILL REMAIN LIMITED DUE TO THE MARGINAL DELTA-T
VALUES...WITH LAKE SUPERIOR STILL AROUND 7C. TEMPS WILL NOT CLIMB
MUCH PAST THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014
AS OPPOSED TO LAST WEEKS MOSTLY GLOOMY WET WEATHER...MOST DAYS THIS
WEEK WILL BE DRY AND WARMER WITH MORE SUNSHINE. IT`S LIKELY MANY
AREAS WON`T SEE ANY PCPN TUE THRU SUN. INITIALLY...AN AMPLIFYING
RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL SEND A SHORTWAVE DIVING SE THRU THE
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND MON. WAVE WILL THEN EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED LOW
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THRU THE MID WEEK PERIOD BEFORE
DRIFTING NE LATE WEEK. MEANWHILE...THE UPSTREAM RIDGE WILL SHIFT E
SO THAT A ZONE OF POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES WILL EXTEND FROM THE SRN
ROCKIES ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES INTO NRN QUEBEC DURING THE MID AND
LATE WEEK PERIOD...SUGGESTING A WARMER/DRIER PERIOD OF WEATHER.
SO...AFTER A COOL START TO THE WEEK...TEMPS WILL TREND ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK. A SHORTWAVE TROF REACHING THE W COAST
MON WILL SHIFT E DURING THE WEEK...BUT WILL WEAKEN SUBSTANTIALLY AS
IT RUNS INTO THE RIDGE/POSITIVE ANOMALIES. SYSTEM MAY STILL GENERATE
A FEW SHRA IN THE UPPER LAKES THU. OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES IN WHETHER THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
REMAIN A WARMER W TO SW OR SHIFT TO THE NW TO BRING A RETURN TO
COLDER CONDITIONS.
BEGINNING MON NIGHT....PRONOUNCED MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE
SHIFTING OUT OVER THE PLAINS AND EXTENDING TO HUDSON BAY. AT THE
SFC...ASSOCIATED HIGH PRES CENTER WILL BE DRIFTING ACROSS NRN
ONTARIO WITH RIDGE EXTENDING SSW ACROSS WRN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY 12Z TUE...BRINGING LARGER SCALE
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. APPROACH OF THE RIDGE WILL RESULT IN LOWERING
INVERSION/DIMINISHING DEEP MOISTURE THRU THE NIGHT. BY 12Z...
INVERSION BASE WILL BE DOWN TO AROUND 3KFT OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. 850MB
TEMPS AROUND -2 TO -3C WILL BE MARGINAL AT BEST FOR LAKE EFFECT PCPN
DURING THE NIGHT AS THERE IS ONLY A NARROW ZONE OF WATER TEMPS NEAR
10C ALONG THE SRN SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. OPEN WATER TEMPS ARE IN
THE 6-8C RANGE. FURTHER LIMITING PCPN POTENTIAL WILL BE DEEP LAYER
QVECTOR DIVERGENCE/SUBSIDENCE. ANY DAYTIME AIDED SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL END DURING MON EVENING...AND AS WINDS VEER NORTHEASTERLY...ONLY
NCNTRL UPPER MI...AIDED BY UPSLOPE...WILL HAVE ANY CHC OF SEEING
SOME LIGHT PCPN LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT. POPS WILL BE KEPT LOW IN
THE SCHC/LOW CHC RANGE. AS THE DEEP MOISTURE PULLS OUT...LEAVING
TEMPS IN THE MOIST LAYER MUCH HIGHER THAN -10C...POTENTIAL FOR ICE
CRYSTALS IN THE CLOUD WILL BE VERY LOW...SO ONLY -SHRA WILL BE
MENTIONED IN FCST.
CLOUDS WILL DECREASE ON TUE...BUT MOST SLOWLY OVER THE CNTRL AS
ADDED MOISTURE FROM LAKE SUPERIOR COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL
HELP TO MAINTAIN A STRATOCU DECK LONGER.
TUE NIGHT SHOULD BE QUITE CHILLY UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM
WIND ASSOCIATED WITH SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER THE AREA. WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER 35-55 PCT OF NORMAL...WENT WITH MIN TEMPS AT OR
BLO THE LOWEST GUIDANCE. 20S SHOULD BE COMMON IN THE INTERIOR.
A WARMER...SUNNY DAY WILL FOLLOW ON WED UNDER MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS. ALL GUIDANCE APPEARS TOO COOL AS MIXING TO AROUND 900MB ON
FCST SOUNDINGS SUPPORTS MAX TEMPS AT LEAST INTO THE LWR 50S E AND
INTO THE UPPER 50S W.
TROF THAT MOVES ONSHORE OVER THE W COAST LATE MON WILL REACH THE
UPPER LAKES THU...BUT IN A SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENED STATE. IN
ADDITION...MODELS SHOW ENERGY IN THE TROF SPLITTING WITH ONE PIECE
SETTLING SE THRU THE PLAINS AND THE OTHER PIECE LIFTING TO HUDSON
BAY. WITH SYSTEM CONTINUING TO WEAKEN...ONLY SCHC POPS WERE INCLUDED
OVER WRN UPPER MI THU.
A WARM DAY FOR LATE OCT SHOULD FOLLOW FOR FRI AS RIBBON OF
MOISTURE/CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH DECAYING TROF SHIFTS E OF THE
AREA...ALLOWING SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY. AT THIS POINT...IT
LOOKS LIKE FRI HAS THE BEST SHOT OF BEING THE WARMEST DAY OF THIS
FCST PERIOD UNDER SW FLOW. MANY LOCATIONS SHOULD REACH AT LEAST 60F
FOR MAX TEMPS ON FRI.
AS ALLUDED TO ABOVE...MODEL DIFFERENCES DEVELOP OVER THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AS THE 00Z GFS/UKMET INDICATE MORE SUBSTANTIAL TROFFING
ARRIVING ALONG THE W COAST FRI...WHICH HELPS MAINTAIN MORE
RIDGING/WARMER CONDITIONS DOWNSTREAM INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE 00Z
ECMWF/CMC HAVE THIS TROF FARTHER OFFSHORE. THIS RESULTS IN A FARTHER
W RIDGE AXIS WHICH THEN ALLOWS A SHORTWAVE TO DIVE MORE TO THE SE
INTO THE GREAT LAKES...BRINGING A SHOT OF COLDER AIR. THE 12Z RUNS
DIDN`T HELP CLARIFY THE ISSUE...BUT IT DOES APPEAR THE ECMWF MAY BE
A BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH COOLING INTO THE UPPER LAKES. IN ANY
EVENT...WITH SHORTWAVE PASSING TO THE N OF THE AREA...PCPN POTENTIAL
LOOKS MINIMAL AT BEST...AND FOR NOW...FCST WILL REFLECT MODEST
COOLING OVER THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS STILL ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 218 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014
VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY WILL SLOWLY FALL TO MVFR AND EVEN POSSIBLY
IFR THROUGH THIS MORNING. BEST CHANCE OF IFR CEILINGS WILL BE AT KIWD
THIS MORNING...THEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AT KSAW AS WINDS
TURN NORTH TO NORTHEAST. LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
BEGINNING AROUND DAYBREAK AND LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014
LOW PRESSURE OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
OVERNIGHT...AND EXIT ACROSS LAKE HURON ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
EASTERN MANITOBA AND W MINNESOTA MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL BUILD ACROSS
ONTARIO/LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER PERIOD OF MAINLY
N GUSTS TO 25KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING OVER
CENTRAL AND E LAKE SUPERIOR. A RIDGE WILL LINGER ACROSS E LAKE
SUPERIOR INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS QUEBEC. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD LINGER INTO
FRIDAY...AS LAKE SUPERIOR GETS STUCK BETWEEN DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA...AND ANOTHER LOW NEARING FROM CENTRAL
CANADA.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1053 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 835 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014
THE HOPWRF...OUR MPXWRF AND THE LATEST RUC ALL SHOW SOME SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MN BY 09Z WITH
THE ACTIVITY WORKING EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING AND
EVENTUALLY REACHING NORTH OF THE TWIN CITIES BY NOON. EVEN THE
SREF HAS SOME CHANCE PROBABILITIES DEVELOPING IN THESE AREAS. THE
ACTIVITY IS AT THE LEADING EDGE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND NOSE
OF A 45 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET. THEREFORE...ADDED SOME SMALL POPS TO
WEST CENTRAL THROUGH CENTRAL MN FOR THE LATE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014
CLEAR SKIES WERE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS AFTERNOON.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO TOGETHER WITH A
DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN LED TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE MINNESOTA RIVER VALLEY. BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING ALLOWED SURFACE TEMPS TO CLIMB TO NEAR 70 ACROSS
WESTERN MN...BUT LOW CLOUDS LIMITED TEMPS TO THE MID 50S ACROSS
WESTERN WI.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE
CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE ID/MT BORDER WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND
BRING PRECIPITATION BEGINNING LATE WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE WEST...AND
SHIFTING EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. THIS WELL ADVERTISED PRECIP IS NOW
FALLING INTO THE TIME FRAME OF THE HIRES MODELS...SO TRIED TO NARROW
UP THE POP WINDOW...BUT INCREASED THE PERCENTAGES AS WELL. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY...SO COULD SEE A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES AS WELL. RAINFALL TOTALS SHOULD RANGE AROUND 0.20
INCHES FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014
THURSDAY WX AND THE DEPARTURE OF THE SHOWERS IN EC MN/WC WI WILL
BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE STORM SYSTEM IN THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.
AND HOW IT INFLUENCES/SLOWS THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER MIDWEST
STORM SYSTEM.
OVER THE PAST FEW MODEL RUNS...THE STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST HAS REMAINED CONSISTENT AND HOLDING NEAR OR SOUTH OF
BOSTON/MASS. THE STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST HAS SLIGHTLY
BECOME MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED LEADING TO A SLOWER/STRONGER
SOLUTION. DUE TO THE STORM SYSTEM IN THE NORTHEAST...IT IS LIKELY
THAT THE UPPER MIDWEST SYSTEM MAY SLOW DOWN FURTHER. CURRENT
WX/POP GRIDS REFLECT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER SOLUTION WHICH MAY BE
SLOWED MORE IF CONDS WARRANT.
PAST THURSDAY...THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT
IN A STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. WITH THE
EXTENSION OF THIS RIDGE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. A STRONG
CORRELATION OF ABNORMALLY HIGHER HEIGHTS ABV 50H IS EVIDENT IN THE
LATEST ENSEMBLES OF THE NAEFS. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE ABV NORMAL
TEMPS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS PAST THURSDAY...WITH THE BEST
PROBABILITY OF SEEING ANOTHER 70 DEGREE HIGH ON BOTH FRIDAY AND
SUNDAY. DEPENDING UPON THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN CONTINUING...THIS
ABV NORMAL ANOMALY OF THE 20/50H WILL MOVE EAST BY LATE NEXT
WEEK...WITH A MORE UNSETTLED PERIOD BY LATE OCTOBER AND EARLY
NOVEMBER. LATEST 6-10/8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FROM CPC HAS NEAR NORMAL
TEMPS BY EARLY NOVEMBER. EARLY NOVEMBER TEMPS FOR THE UPPER
MIDWEST AVERAGE AROUND 32 DEGREES FOR MORNING LOWS AND HIGHS IN
THE 40S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1053 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014
LITTLE HAS CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS SET OF TAFS. ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WILL REACH INTO WEST CENTRAL MN BEFORE DAYBREAK AND
PROGRESS EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL MN DURING THE MORNING.
VCSH REMAINS IN THE KRWF...KAXN AND KSTC TAFS DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS ALSO POSSIBLE. SHOWER CHANCES
INCREASE FOR KAXN AND KRWF BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONT. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR AS THE BAND OF THE
SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH. THE SHOWERS AND LOWER CEILINGS WILL REACH
INTO EASTERN MN DURING THE EVENING AND PASS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WI
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BE STRONGEST
ACROSS WESTERN MN WITH 15G22KTS COMMON. SPEEDS FROM 5 TO 10 KNOTS
FOR THE EASTERN SITES. BREEZY SE WINDS AT ALL TAF SITES ON
WEDNESDAY WITH 15-20 KNOTS GUSTING 20-25 KNOTS.
KMSP...VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE
STILL EXPECTED TO PASS NORTH OF THE AIRFIELD LATE IN THE MORNING.
SHOWERS CHANCES INCREASING WEDNESDAY EVENING ALONG WITH MVFR
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR WITH MVFR/-SHRA EARLY. WINDS SSE AT 10G20KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS SSW AT 5-10KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS NW AT 5-10KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RAH
SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...RAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
835 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 835 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014
THE HOPWRF...OUR MPXWRF AND THE LATEST RUC ALL SHOW SOME SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MN BY 09Z WITH
THE ACTIVITY WORKING EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING AND
EVENTUALLY REACHING NORTH OF THE TWIN CITIES BY NOON. EVEN THE
SREF HAS SOME CHANCE PROBABILITIES DEVELOPING IN THESE AREAS. THE
ACTIVITY IS AT THE LEADING EDGE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND NOSE
OF A 45 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET. THEREFORE...ADDED SOME SMALL POPS TO
WEST CENTRAL THROUGH CENTRAL MN FOR THE LATE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014
CLEAR SKIES WERE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS AFTERNOON.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO TOGETHER WITH A
DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN LED TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE MINNESOTA RIVER VALLEY. BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING ALLOWED SURFACE TEMPS TO CLIMB TO NEAR 70 ACROSS
WESTERN MN...BUT LOW CLOUDS LIMITED TEMPS TO THE MID 50S ACROSS
WESTERN WI.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE
CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE ID/MT BORDER WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND
BRING PRECIPITATION BEGINNING LATE WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE WEST...AND
SHIFTING EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. THIS WELL ADVERTISED PRECIP IS NOW
FALLING INTO THE TIME FRAME OF THE HIRES MODELS...SO TRIED TO NARROW
UP THE POP WINDOW...BUT INCREASED THE PERCENTAGES AS WELL. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY...SO COULD SEE A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES AS WELL. RAINFALL TOTALS SHOULD RANGE AROUND 0.20
INCHES FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014
THURSDAY WX AND THE DEPARTURE OF THE SHOWERS IN EC MN/WC WI WILL
BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE STORM SYSTEM IN THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.
AND HOW IT INFLUENCES/SLOWS THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER MIDWEST
STORM SYSTEM.
OVER THE PAST FEW MODEL RUNS...THE STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST HAS REMAINED CONSISTENT AND HOLDING NEAR OR SOUTH OF
BOSTON/MASS. THE STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST HAS SLIGHTLY
BECOME MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED LEADING TO A SLOWER/STRONGER
SOLUTION. DUE TO THE STORM SYSTEM IN THE NORTHEAST...IT IS LIKELY
THAT THE UPPER MIDWEST SYSTEM MAY SLOW DOWN FURTHER. CURRENT
WX/POP GRIDS REFLECT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER SOLUTION WHICH MAY BE
SLOWED MORE IF CONDS WARRANT.
PAST THURSDAY...THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT
IN A STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. WITH THE
EXTENSION OF THIS RIDGE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. A STRONG
CORRELATION OF ABNORMALLY HIGHER HEIGHTS ABV 50H IS EVIDENT IN THE
LATEST ENSEMBLES OF THE NAEFS. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE ABV NORMAL
TEMPS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS PAST THURSDAY...WITH THE BEST
PROBABILITY OF SEEING ANOTHER 70 DEGREE HIGH ON BOTH FRIDAY AND
SUNDAY. DEPENDING UPON THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN CONTINUING...THIS
ABV NORMAL ANOMALY OF THE 20/50H WILL MOVE EAST BY LATE NEXT
WEEK...WITH A MORE UNSETTLED PERIOD BY LATE OCTOBER AND EARLY
NOVEMBER. LATEST 6-10/8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FROM CPC HAS NEAR NORMAL
TEMPS BY EARLY NOVEMBER. EARLY NOVEMBER TEMPS FOR THE UPPER
MIDWEST AVERAGE AROUND 32 DEGREES FOR MORNING LOWS AND HIGHS IN
THE 40S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 701 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014
SEVERAL CONCERNS WITH THE FORECAST AHEAD. THE FIRST IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOW MVFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP/SPREAD INTO WESTERN MN
NEAR DAYBREAK AND LINGERING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. AT THIS TIME...
LAMP GUIDANCE AND SREF PROBABILITIES POINT MORE TO THE WEST OF
KAXN AND KRWF. HENCE...ONLY CARRIED SCT015-020 FOR THESE SITES IN
THE MORNING. AROUND THE END OF THE PERIOD THESE TWO SITES MAY SEE
MVFR CEILINGS AND SHOWERS MOVE IN. A SECOND CONCERN IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP NEAR DAYBREAK BETWEEN
KRWF AND KAXN AND SPREAD EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH KSTC AND THE NORTH
TWIN CITIES METRO BY LATE IN THE MORNING. THIS IS MORE PLAUSIBLE
WITH QUITE A FEW CAMS SHOWING THIS. THEREFORE...VCSH WAS INCLUDED
FOR THE THREE AFOREMENTIONED TERMINALS. THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN DURING THE NIGHT WITH GUSTY SE
WINDS FOR WESTERN MN AND ACROSS ALL OF THE TAF SITES ON WEDNESDAY.
FINALLY...SEVERAL OF THE CAMS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL IS INCREASING TO THE SOUTH OF MN WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS
COULD IMPEDE THE MOISTURE FLOW INTO OUR AREA WITH THE SHOWERS FOR
THE MN/WI TAF SITES BEING MORE OF A SCATTERED NATURE.
KMSP...VFR EXPECTED UNTIL WEDNESDAY EVENING. SMALL THREAT FOR
A FEW SHOWERS TO PASS NORTH OF THE AIRFIELD WEDNESDAY MORNING.
SHOWERS CHANCES INCREASE WEDNESDAY EVENING ALONG WITH THE THREAT
FOR MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR WITH MVFR/-SHRA EARLY. WINDS SSE AT 10G20KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS SSW AT 5-10KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS NW AT 5-10KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RAH
SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...RAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
751 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014
.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO LESSEN POPS ACROSS THE WEST...AND TWEAK THEM
ACROSS THE EAST TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS. NOW THAT WE HAVE LOSS
AFTERNOON HEATING...MUCH OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE WEST
HAS DIMINISHED. MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE NO MORE THAN A FEW
SPRINKLES THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. THE HRRR EVEN SUGGESTS
THAT THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY MAY SEE SOME SPRINKLES AROUND
MIDNIGHT AS A WEAK TROUGH AXIS SWINGS ACROSS. MEANWHILE...THE
LARGER AREA OF SHRA/TSTMS ACROSS THE EAST HAS MOSTLY
DIMINISHED...BUT A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS...AND THE OCCASIONAL
RUMBLE OF THUNDER...HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS. THE HRRR
SUGGESTS MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT...BUT MAY
PERSIST LONGER AS THE NOSE OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET POKES INTO THE
EAST. UPDATES ALREADY OUT.
34
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...548 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
AREA OF SHOWERS AND TSTSM MOST LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK UPPER
TROUGH OVER ERN NM SHOULD CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE NE AND SLOWLY
DIMINISH AFTER 03Z. BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN RAIN POSSIBLE WITH
THIS ACTIVITY. WEST OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN...ISOLD LIGHT SHOWERS
SHOULD ALSO DIMINISH AFTER 03Z. OTHERWISE...HIGHER TERRAIN WILL BE
OBSCD IN MVFR TO IFR CIGS AFT 06Z FROM THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
CENTRAL MT CHAIN AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS PLENTIFUL.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...318 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL CROSS NEW
MEXICO EARLY WEDNESDAY AND FORCE THE RECENT MOIST AND RELATIVELY
COOL PATTERN OUT OF THE AREA. AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG DOME OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BRINGING
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...DRY CONDITIONS...AND LIGHT WINDS.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE COOL BUT STILL ABOVE LATE
OCTOBER NORMALS. THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN BY SUNDAY...USHERING IN
BREEZY AND COOLER CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY. THE NEXT POTENTIAL
STORM SYSTEM WILL ATTEMPT TO SLIDE INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
MAIN CHANGES TO FORECAST PACKAGE INCLUDED TAPERING BACK SHOWER AND
STORM CHANCES OVER CENTRAL/WESTERN NM TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ADDED
SOME FOG IN MORENO VALLEY TONIGHT AND INTO THE PECOS VALLEY TMRW
NIGHT. ALSO RAISED TEMPS WELL ABOVE CONSENSUS GUIDANCE OVER THE
PLAINS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY TO COME IN LINE BETTER WITH SIGNIFICANTLY
WARMER TEMPS FROM WEST TEXAS OFFICES.
THE 2030Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED UPPER TROUGH AXIS
RACING EAST INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...WITH A SHARP PUNCH OF DRY
AIR IN ITS WAKE. THE SURFACE FRONT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM
IS LAGGING OVER CENTRAL NV AND NORTHWEST UT. THE ENTIRE UPPER TROUGH
FEATURE IS SHOWN BY MODELS TO ESSENTIALLY SHEAR APART AND LIFT WELL
NORTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
LEAVE NM IN GENERALLY WEAK QUASI-ZONAL FLOW THROUGH THURSDAY. ALL IN
ALL THIS HAS TRENDED FASTER SO HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT AND LOWERED POP
VALUES MOST AREAS WEST OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN. THE EAST WILL LIKELY
REMAIN SOCKED IN LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THROUGH THE 1ST PART OF
WEDNESDAY.
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG 591DM H5 HIGH CENTER WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
DESERT SW BY LATE THURSDAY...AND BRING SOME REALLY SPECTACULAR
WEATHER TO OUR REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. A PARTIAL SOLAR ECLIPSE
VISIBLE WITHIN NM LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD HAVE VERY NICE
VIEWING CONDITIONS. TRENDED TEMPS UP A COUPLE DEGREES THURSDAY...AND
ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ACROSS THE EAST TO ACCOUNT FOR MUCH
WARMER READINGS FROM THE WEST TX OFFICES. VERY LIGHT WINDS ALOFT...
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S...MINIMAL SURFACE LEE TROUGHING OVER
THE PLAINS...AND LATE OCTOBER SUN WOULD LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR TEMPS
ABOVE RECORDS...BUT WILL GET ANOTHER CHANCE TO REVISIT LATER.
LEE TROUGHING WILL BE NOTABLE SATURDAY SO THAT COULD ACTUALLY BE THE
WARMEST DAY FOR THE EAST. TIMING ON THE RIDGE BREAK DOWN HAS BECOME
MORE DISJOINTED BETWEEN MODELS...SO CONFIDENCE DECREASES ON THE
PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SUNDAY IS PROGGED TO BE THE BREEZIEST
FOR THE EAST WITH STRONGER LEE TROUGHING...WHILE THE WEST COOLS OFF.
BEYOND THE WEEKEND...MODELS ARE FLIP/FLOPPING ON A POTENTIAL WINTER
STORM SYSTEM BY MID WEEK.
GUYER
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY MOIST ACROSS SE AND S CENTRAL SECTIONS OF
FCST AREA...NOT AS MOIST ELSEWHERE BUT STILL MORE SO THAN NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. MOST NUMEROUS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
REST OF AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT SHOULD BE ACROSS SE AND E CENTRAL
SECTIONS. DRIER WED...THOUGH STILL SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS
A POSSIBILITY ACROSS MAINLY THE SE PLAINS AND SACRAMENTO MTNS
VICINITY. THEREAFTER A WARMING AND FURTHER DRYING TREND BEGINNING AS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. UPPER LOW EARLIER
NEAR THE BOOTHEEL IS SLOWLY OPENING UP INTO A WAVE AND SHOULD SLOWLY
EASE ACROSS S CENTRAL INTO SE NM BETWEEN TONIGHT AND MID MORN WED.
BROADER BUT FAIRLY WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL HELP USHER THAT SYSTEM
EAST OF THE STATE LATER WED...AIDING TRANSITION TO DRIER CONDITIONS
AND SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS. STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE COMING
INTO THE STATE WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI. AS A RESULT MINIMUM HUMIDITY
WILL TREND DOWN AS HIGH TEMPERATURES TREND UP TO ABOVE NORMAL THU
AND FRI. THIS PATTERN WILL ALSO CREATE POOR VENTILATION ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK...ESPECIALLY IN VALLEYS WHERE
TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS WILL BE STUBBORN OR SLOW TO BREAK. AREAS EAST
OF CENTRAL MTN CHAIN AND NEAR TO SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 MAY STILL
SEE FAIR TO GOOD RATES WED AND THU...LOWERING A BIT FRI. RATES NO
BETTER AND GENERALLY LOWER ELSEWHERE.
A VERY SHARP INCREASE IN TRANSPORT WINDS...MIXING HEIGHTS AND THUS
VENT RATES OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AS WINDS ALOFT
INCREASE NOTICEABLY AND A DEEPENING LEE SIDE TROUGH TAKES SHAPE.
WHILE NEAR SFC WINDS REACH CRITICAL LEVELS IN SOME SPOTS...MAINLY
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NE HIGHLANDS AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF WEST
CENTRAL NM. AT THIS TIME STILL LOOKS LIKE MIN RH LOOKS TO STAY ABOVE
CRITICAL THRESHOLD...BUT THIS WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY WITH NEWER
FCST MODEL RUNS AS SUNDAY MAY END UP WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR BETWEEN
1 AND 3 HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.
43
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
34
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
346 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
AND PRODUCE OCCASIONAL SHOWERS. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST
COAST BY WEDNESDAY BUT REMAIN CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE RAIN WILL BE MOST
PREVALENT ACROSS CENTRAL NY BUT A FEW SHOWERS WILL ALSO PERSIST
ACROSS THE WESTERN END OF THE STATE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE
COOL SIDE THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK BEFORE WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER
DEVELOPS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING A FEW SPRINKLES AND VERY LIGHT SHOWERS
CROSSING THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE MOST CONCENTRATED
ACTIVITY CROSSING LAKE ONTARIO INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. MOST
AREAS WILL SEE NOTHING MORE THAN A SPRINKLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND OBJECTIVE RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS A MID LEVEL
TROUGH CROSSING THE CENTRAL LAKES...WITH A POTENT VORTICITY MAXIMA
NOTED ENTERING WESTERN OHIO. THIS FEATURE HAS A CONCENTRATED BAND OF
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH IT...AND IS FORECAST TO ENTER WESTERN NY BY
MID EVENING. GIVEN THE TRAJECTORY OF THE STRONGEST ASCENT IN ADVANCE
OF THIS VORTICITY MAXIMA...EXPECT THE MOST ORGANIZED SHOWERS THIS
EVENING TO PASS ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER...AND THIS HAS
SUPPORT FROM SHORT TERM MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE NAM
AND GEM SOLUTIONS.
OVERNIGHT THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
ONTARIO AND REACH WESTERN NY BY 12Z TUESDAY...AN UNUSUAL LOW TRACK
FROM A CLIMATOLOGY STANDPOINT. ALOFT THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE LOWER LAKES AND BEGIN TO DEVELOP A CLOSED
CIRCULATION. SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION...AND WILL BE MOST CONCENTRATED WITHIN AREAS OF DPVA AHEAD OF
SEVERAL NOTABLE VORTICITY MAXIMA ROTATING AROUND THE DEVELOPING
CLOSED LOW. THE FIRST OF THESE WILL MOVE FROM THE WESTERN SOUTHERN
TIER THIS EVENING ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES TO THE NORTH COUNTRY BY
EARLY TUESDAY...WEAKENING WITH EASTERN EXTENT. THE SECOND IS
FORECAST TO WRAP INTO WESTERN NY ON TUESDAY. WHILE THE FORCING AND
MOISTURE COMING TOGETHER YIELD A HIGH PROBABILITY OF RAIN TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY...THE TRANSIENT AND COMPLEX NATURE OF FORCING WITH THE
LOW CROSSING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD WILL MAKE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE
PERIODS OF ENHANCED RAIN DIFFICULT AT BEST. WITH THIS IN MIND HAVE
GONE WITH HIGH CATEGORICAL POPS BUT KEPT THE WORDING OF OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE TRICKY TO PLACE AS WELL...WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS REMAINING RELATIVELY LOCALIZED. IN GENERAL EXPECT AMOUNTS OF
A QUARTER TO THIRD OF AN INCH IN MOST AREAS...BUT SOME MESOSCALE
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A PERSISTENT AREA OF CONVERGENCE AND UPSLOPE
FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER WHICH MAY PRODUCE LOCAL
AMOUNTS OF UP TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH.
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP A RELATIVELY SMALL DIURNAL RANGE IN
TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID 40S IN
MOST AREAS TONIGHT WITH LOWER 40S IN THE COOLEST SOUTHERN TIER
VALLEYS AND TUG HILL REGION...AND UPPER 40S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
LAKESHORES. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 50S IN MOST AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
EXITING UPPER WAVE ANCHORING THE BROADER MID LEVEL TROUGH
AMPLIFICATION WILL CLOSE OFF AS IT SETTLES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD. THE EXTENSIVE MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW
WILL PUSH WESTWARD INTO WESTERN NEW YORK TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE FIRST
PART OF WEDNESDAY...BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY. WE SHOULD
SEE THE SHOWER ACTIVITY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST LATER WEDNESDAY
AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION DRIFTS OFF THE EAST COAST AND DRY
AIR ALOFT ENCROACHES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FROM THE WEST.
HOWEVER...DEVELOPING NORTH NORTHEAST FLOW WHICH WILL LIKELY SUPPORT
ADDITIONAL SHOWER DEVELOP SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND IN FAVORED
UPSLOPE AREAS. THERE SHOULD BE AN UPTICK TO THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
THURSDAY AS THE LOW DRIFTS BACK TO THE WEST AND A FRESH SLUG OF
ATLANTIC MOISTURE WRAPS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. THE COOL
NORTHERLY FLOW AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE PRODUCING PLENTY OF CLOUD
COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ON THE COOL SIDE OF AVERAGE THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINING CONSISTENT...AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST TRACKS SLOWLY NORTH INTO THE GULF OF MAINE AND
ATLANTIC MOISTURE. PLENTY OF MARITIME AIR WILL BE WRAPPED WESTWARD
INTO THE REGION CONTINUING THE DREARY WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND GREATER POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL
REMAINS FOCUSED EAST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY.
AN IMPROVEMENT LOOKS TO COME BY THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE LOW FINALLY LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES ALLOWING FOR DRIER CONDITIONS AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR WILL LAST INTO EARLY EVENING BEFORE CONDITIONS BEGIN TO
DETERIORATE. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE NEAR KIAG WHERE LOCAL SSW
FLOW OFF LAKE ERIE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE AREAS OF MVFR CIGS
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. ANY SHOWERS THROUGH 22Z WILL BE VERY LIGHT
WITH NO REDUCTION IN CIGS/VSBY.
EARLY THIS EVENING SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH SHOWERS BECOMING MOST WIDESPREAD AT FIRST ACROSS THE
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. CIGS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR THEN IFR
THROUGH MID TO LATE EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. THE
NIAGARA FRONTIER INCLUDING KBUF/KIAG/KROC SHOULD STAY MAINLY VFR AT
FIRST WITH ANY SHOWERS REMAINING LIGHT AND SSW FLOW HELPING TO
DOWNSLOPE AWAY ANY LOWER CIGS.
OVERNIGHT SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD...AND LOWER CIGS WILL
ALSO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD WITH MVFR AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND IFR
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. BY TUESDAY MORNING LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
LOCATED DIRECTLY OVER WESTERN NY. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE LOW ACROSS THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER AND RESULT IN IFR CIGS BECOMING WIDESPREAD ACROSS WESTERN
NY BY AROUND 12Z TUE. EXPECT THIS IFR TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY WITH VERY MOIST LOW LEVELS AND NORTHEAST FLOW. OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS WILL PERSIST AS WELL...AND COMBINE WITH BR TO PRODUCE AREAS
OF MVFR/IFR VSBY ON TUESDAY.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AREAS OF MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN...
RAIN LIKELY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NY.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
MODERATE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS ON LAKE ERIE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING TONIGHT. THIS WILL MAINTAIN
MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON LAKE ERIE FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS. LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE LOWER LAKES LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH A PERIOD OF RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS RIGHT
NEAR THE LOW CENTER.
LATER TUESDAY MORNING NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON LAKE
ONTARIO...THEN INCREASE FURTHER TO AROUND 25 KNOTS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT QUICKLY TIGHTENS BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW.
THIS WILL BRING HIGHER END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO THE
SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO TUESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
NORTHEAST WINDS MAY ALSO INCREASE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON LAKE ERIE LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM TUESDAY TO 11 AM EDT
THURSDAY FOR LOZ043.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM TUESDAY TO 11 AM EDT
THURSDAY FOR LOZ044.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TUESDAY TO 11 AM EDT
THURSDAY FOR LOZ042.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1155 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014
LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS LIMITED DUE TO TRANSMISSION PROBLEMS...HOWEVER
ENOUGH LOCAL SITES AROUND WITH DEWPOINTS BEING REPORTED IN THE LOWER
TO MID 30S. WITH NEARLY CALM WINDS AND A CLEAR SKY...HAVE OPTED TO
LOWER TEMPS A COUPLE MORE DEGREES PER LATEST HRRR. OTHERWISE QUIET
NIGHT AHEAD. THE HRRR ALSO DEVELOPS SOME PATCHY FOG JUST EAST OF
THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS...AND DID NOT INCLUDE THIS IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1015 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014
NO CHANGES REQUIRED WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE OTHER THAN TO BLEND
TO OBSERVED TRENDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014
THERE ARE NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. DID LOWER
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT...INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 30S...WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED AND HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE WEST. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MAY MAKE THEIR WAY FROM
SASKATCHEWAN INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014
BROAD REX BLOCK ACROSS THE WESTERN US WITH THE NORTH COMPONENT OF
THE REX BLOCK THE RIDGE OVER MONTANA TODAY. TO THE WEST AN EASTERN
PACIFIC TROUGH REMAINS POISED TO MOVE SLOWLY INLAND ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST MONDAY. AS THIS HAPPENS THE RIDGE WILL MOVE
EAST TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS MAINTAINING A QUIET AND MILD WEATHER
PATTERN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. FORECAST PROBLEM
THEN BECOMES TEMPERATURES AS WEATHER WILL BE NIL. PAST FEW CYCLES
THERE HAS BEEN A GENERAL COOL BIAS TO 24H LOW TEMP FORECASTS SO WILL
ADJUST ACCORDINGLY. TRENDED TOWARDS CONSRAW FOR THE OVERNIGHT LOWS
TONIGHT. ON MONDAY WITH THE H500 RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SHOULD SEE HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S WEST TO UPPER 60S/AROUND
70 EAST. SREFBC HAS BEEN THE BEST GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS OF LATE SO
USED THIS FOR MONDAY THEN ADDED A FEW DEGREES AS THE WARM ADVECTION
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE BUT MARGINALLY LESS MIXING...SHOULD BALANCE OUT
WITH A WARMER TEMPS MONDAY.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014
THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE A CONTINUED WARM
AND DRY PERIOD AS A LONG WAVE RIDGE TRAVERSES EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MID-WEEK DEPICTING A LONG
WAVE RIDGE SLOWLY PUSHING EAST ACROSS NORTH AMERICA...RESULTING IN
MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER. LOOKING AT HIGHS 65
TO 75 TUESDAY.
GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE
REGION WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE UPPER RIDGE. MAIN ENERGY SPLITS TO THE
NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE A
TAD SLOWER...RESULTING IN SOME VERY LOW POPS OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND MAINLY IN THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
AFTER THE MID WEEK TROUGH MOVES TO OUR EAST...THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK ADVERTISES A FAST-MOVING QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION...KEEPING ANY SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER SYSTEMS WELL TO OUR NORTH.
EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN MAINLY IN THE 60S WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014
NO AVIATION WEATHER ISSUES...VFR CIGS/VSBYS NEXT 24HR.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1150 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014
POPULATED WITH OBSERVATIONS DATABASE AND ADJUSTED TO FIT FORECAST
OTRW NO CHANGES WITH THE LATEST ESTF ISSUANCE.
&&
UPDATE ISSUED AT 935 PM CDT CDT SUN OCT 19 2014
SKC ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF FGF CWFA EXCEPT FOR THE LOW REGION.
THE RAP WANTS TO MOVE AREA OF LOWER CIGS INTO CWFA BUT HAS BACKED
OFF ON WESTWARD EXPANSION FROM EARLIER RUNS. RAP 925 MB - 850 MB
GTE 90% RH DEPICTS THE LOW CLOUDS WELL...AND CURRENT FORECAST HAS
DECENT HANDLE ON THIS. NEWEST WRINKLE IS THE HRRR AND RAP
GENERATING AREAS OF BR/FG NEAR SUNRISE. WILL NOT ADD ATTM AS NEAR
SFC AIRMASS RELATIVELY DRY...SO EXPECT THAT ANY BR/FG WOULD BE
ISOLD AND SHORT LIVED.
&&
UPDATE ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014
INHERITED FORECAST DOING WELL. ONLY TWEAK IS TO THE TIMING OF THE
CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE EASTERN CWFA IN THE 06Z - 12Z TIME PERIOD.
THE RAP 925MB-850MB RH DEPICTS THE CURRENT CLOUD COVER IN MANITOBA
AND ONTARIO WELL...SO HAVE USED THIS AS GUIDANCE. OTRW NO CHANGE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014
EXPECT FAIR SKIES...SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH
WINDS TURNING MORE NORTHERLY AND DIMINISHING WITH NIGHTFALL.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW PUSHING FROM FAR NORTHWEST ONTARIO
TOWARDS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT AND
ACCOMPANYING SCATTERED BAND OF CLOUDS ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST AND
NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE OVERALL INFLUX OF SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER CANADIAN POLAR AIR
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SLIGHTLY LOWER DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY...BUT WITH LESSER WINDS WE CAN EXPECT APPARENT TEMPERATURES
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT TO REMAIN QUITE PLEASANT.
LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014
TUESDAY...AN APPROACHING H5 SHORTWAVE RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED WARMER
DEEP LAYER THERMAL RIDGE WILL PUSH FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO
WESTERN AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA ON TUESDAY. WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND STEADILY BUILDING WARM AIR ALOFT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
RATCHET WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE
TIMING OF A SHORTWAVE TROF THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS FROM
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. MOST PORTIONS OF THE FA SHOULD SEE
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION AS RAIN SHOWERS...THOUGH WITH THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM AND LACK OF A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
TAP WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS SUGGEST A FLATTENED H5 RIDGE OVER
CENTRAL NOAM WILL KEEP THE CENTRAL NORTHERN PLAINS DRY AND BIT
COOLER OVER THE COMING LATE WEEK PERIOD. HOWEVER TEMPS LOOK TO REMAIN
WELL ABOVE LONG TERM SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT
633 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014
EXPECT FAIR SKIES AND WEST TO NORTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON... WITH WINDS TURNING FROM
THE NORTH AND DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING. SCATTERED VFR CIGS WILL
TRANSIT ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST AND NORTH-CENTRAL MN FROM 00Z THROUGH
09Z.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...EWENS
SHORT TERM...GUST
LONG TERM...GUST
AVIATION...EWENS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
1154 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FOR THE 6Z TAFS... THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAINFALL... WITH
PERHAPS AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM AT NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SITES THIS MORNING. BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SITES DURING THE MORNING AS
WELL. OTHERWISE... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 908 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/
..UPDATE...
DISCUSSION...
A COUPLE OF ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED AND WERE MOVING
EASTWARD ALONG THE OKLAHOMA KANSAS BORDER THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS WARM ADVECTION AND A 20KT LLJ SETS UP OVER
THE CWA...AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE APPROACHING WITHIN WEST
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW. LATEST LOCAL IN-HOUSE MODEL RUNS
AND ALSO THE HRRR HAVE BEEN INDICATING A LITTLE MORE SOUTHWARD
PROGRESSION OF ANY PRECIP THAT FORMS OVERNIGHT. LATEST NAM SHOWS
THE LLJ DEVELOPING A BIT FURTHER SOUTH AS WELL. THUS...HAVE
EXTENDED POPS SOUTHWARD AND INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST SEEMS TO BE HANDLING
WELL...WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY AS PRECIP DEVELOPS
AND THUS KEEPING TEMPS WARMER OVERNIGHT COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT.
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...06
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
321 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE NEW MEXICO BOOTHEEL WILL LIFT OUT
NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW MEXICO ON TUESDAY AND WEAKEN. THIS WILL ALLOW
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE PERSISTS. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH QUICKLY FOLLOWS BEHIND THIS
FIRST LOW AND WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF RAIN ON WEDNESDAY. THE
RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST THE LATTER PORTION OF WEDNESDAY AS
THAT UPPER TROUGH EVENTUALLY PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN A BIT BELOW NORMAL. ON THURSDAY HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
BUILDS OVER THE BORDERLAND TO BRING US SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES
BACK ABOVE NORMAL. WEST FLOW THEN STRAIGHTENS...COLLAPSING AND THEN
MOVING THE RIDGE EASTWARD FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS FLOW WILL
REMAIN DRY HOWEVER WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS OVER THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW NOW APPEARS TO BE JUST SOUTH OF THE NM BOOTHEEL. THE LOW
WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT OPENING INTO AN OPEN WAVE BY
TUESDAY MORNING OVER CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. THIS WILL ALLOW SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE PERSISTS...DEW POINTS IN THE 50S. DEEPER LAYERS
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA BUT CURRENT PW`S OVER THE CWA
ARE AROUND .8" AND MODELS SHOWING THOSE PW`S REMAINING AROUND
.8"-.9" ON TUESDAY. THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY SO SOME LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED. IT APPEARS THAT
AS GOOD AS THE HRRR PERFORMED LAST NIGHT...IT IS THAT BAD TODAY.
MODEL SHOWS STRONG CONVECTION TO HAVE ALREADY FORMED OVER WEST TEXAS
AND MOVED NORTHWEST OVER EL PASO BY AROUND THIS TIME. WHILE SOME
CONVECTION IS FORMING IN THIS AREA...NOT EVEN CLOSE TO THE SAME
COVERAGE AS THE HRRR IS SHOWING.
BY TUESDAY NIGHT OPEN WAVE IS NOW OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AS NEXT
PACIFIC TROUGH RAPIDLY MOVES IN BEHIND...OVER WESTERN ARIZONA LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND TO CENTRAL NEW MEXICO MID DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
MAY ENHANCE MORE THUNDERSTORMS INITIALLY ON WEDNESDAY BUT WILL
EVENTUALLY END SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM WEST TO EAST BY AFTERNOON AS
RIDGING AND WARMER AIR ALOFT BUILD OVER THE SOUTHWEST. WILL LEAVE
LOW POPS IN FAR EASTERN CWA WEDNESDAY EVENING BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT
CLEARING BY LATE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A BIT BELOW
NORMAL WITH THE CLOUD COVER.
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO HIGH CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO
BY FRIDAY...AND THEN GRADUALLY DRIFTS EAST AND ERODES AWAY AS STRONG
WEST FLOW DEVELOPS AS STRONG PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS LOOKS BETTER TIMED THAN PREVIOUS
GFS RUNS SO SUNDAY MAY BECOME WINDIER THAN ORIGINALLY THOUGHT.
OTHERWISE DRY AND WARM FROM THURSDAY ONWARD WITH TEMPERATURES BACK
ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID 21/00Z - 21/00Z...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AND DRIFT EAST
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. AREAS OF SHRA AND TSRA
WILL DEVELOP MOSTLY EAST OF KDMN THROUGH THRU 12Z. VSBY WILL BE
PERIODICALLY REDUCED TO LESS THAN 3SM IN MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN. THE
CLOUD DECK WILL INCREASE AND LOWER TO BETWEEN 5000 TO 6000 FEET AGL.
THROUGH 12Z. CIGS AT KTCS MAY BE LOWER OVERNIGHT. PREVAILING WINDS
WILL BE FROM NORTHEAST TO EAST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH STRONGER GUSTS
IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
.FIRE WEATHER...
THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY MOVE TO THE EAST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. A WEAK SECONDARY TROUGH
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...MOSTLY EAST OF
DEMING. DRY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THURSDAY INTO THE NEXT WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL DURING THE DAY AND HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE HIGH THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE AND HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP
SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS DRIER AND MORE
STABLE AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE MAY RESULT IN SOME
STRONG INVERSIONS IN THE MORNINGS WITH POOR VENTILATION RATES
POSSIBLE BY MIDWEEK AND INTO NEXT SATURDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO 56 73 55 75 53 / 40 30 40 30 0
SIERRA BLANCA 50 70 50 72 49 / 50 40 40 40 20
LAS CRUCES 51 71 52 71 49 / 30 30 40 30 0
ALAMOGORDO 51 71 52 71 49 / 40 30 40 30 20
CLOUDCROFT 42 56 40 58 35 / 50 40 40 40 20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 52 71 52 71 51 / 20 30 30 20 0
SILVER CITY 47 66 48 68 47 / 20 20 20 20 0
DEMING 51 72 52 72 48 / 20 30 30 20 0
LORDSBURG 52 72 51 74 49 / 20 20 20 20 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 56 72 56 74 54 / 40 30 40 30 0
DELL CITY 49 72 48 73 45 / 50 40 40 40 20
FORT HANCOCK 54 74 53 77 52 / 50 40 40 30 20
LOMA LINDA 50 67 51 68 51 / 50 30 40 30 20
FABENS 52 75 52 77 50 / 40 30 40 30 0
SANTA TERESA 53 72 53 72 51 / 40 30 40 30 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 54 71 55 70 52 / 40 30 40 30 0
JORNADA RANGE 50 71 47 70 44 / 30 30 40 30 0
HATCH 49 71 49 70 47 / 30 30 30 30 0
COLUMBUS 53 72 54 73 51 / 20 30 30 20 0
OROGRANDE 52 72 53 72 51 / 40 30 40 30 20
MAYHILL 43 61 44 64 42 / 50 40 40 40 20
MESCALERO 40 62 41 63 37 / 40 40 40 40 20
TIMBERON 40 61 42 63 38 / 50 40 40 40 20
WINSTON 45 65 46 67 43 / 30 30 40 30 0
HILLSBORO 49 67 50 68 47 / 20 30 30 20 0
SPACEPORT 48 71 48 70 45 / 30 30 40 30 0
LAKE ROBERTS 44 65 45 68 43 / 30 30 30 20 0
HURLEY 48 68 49 70 49 / 20 20 30 20 0
CLIFF 46 70 44 72 41 / 20 20 20 20 0
MULE CREEK 44 69 41 71 38 / 20 20 20 10 0
FAYWOOD 49 67 50 69 48 / 20 30 30 20 0
ANIMAS 51 73 51 76 49 / 20 20 20 20 0
HACHITA 50 72 49 74 48 / 20 20 30 20 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 49 76 49 76 47 / 20 20 20 20 0
CLOVERDALE 49 74 51 75 48 / 20 20 20 10 0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
HEFNER/LUNDEEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BROWNSVILLE TX
254 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014
.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
BRO RADAR BEGINNING TO LIGHT UP WITH MAINLY SHOWER ACTIVITY
`SHOTGUNNED` ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE
VALLEY ATTM. SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH A LITTLE DIFFLUENCE IN
THE UPPER LEVELS WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND ANOTHER
LOW OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. MORNING SOUNDING WAS MOIST WITH A PWAT
OF 1.84 INCHES AND DECENT MOISTURE UP TO 500 MB. HRRR HAS A GOOD
HANDLE ON THE SITUATION WHICH PROGRESSES MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE BETTER POPS
NORTH OF THE VALLEY TRANSITIONING TO ZAPATA/STARR COUNTIES AFTER
SUNSET.
EXPECTING A REPEAT OF POPS FOR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. CONFINED POPS TO
OUR NORTHERN SECTIONS OF GULF WATERS TOWARDS DAWN THEN MOVE THAT
AREA INLAND IN THE MORNING HOURS. BETTER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE IN THE
THE RANCHLANDS TUESDAY AND HAVE TRIMMED POPS OUT OF THE VALLEY UNTIL
LATER TUESDAY. COVERAGE MAY NOT BE AS GREAT AS TODAY DUE TO DRIER
AIR MOVING INTO THE 850-700MB LAYER. LESS CLOUDS AND BETTER MIXING
OF LL DRY AIR LED ME TO INCREASE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES IN THE VALLEY
TUESDAY WHICH MOS GUIDANCE SUPPORTS AS WELL /3-5 DEGREES OVER GOING
FORECAST/. KEPT HIGHS AS IS NORTH OF THE VALLEY WITH CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS. /55/
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST SHOULD BRING A RETURN TO DRIER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS WE TURN OFF THE ATMOSPHERIC
SPIGOT.
EYES WILL REMAIN FOCUSED ON THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE AS WE HEAD INTO THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS OUR REGION
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH A WEAKENING EASTERLY FLOW HELPING TO KEEP
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HOVERING CLOSE TO THE 2 INCH MARK. WITH A
WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH EMANATING TOWARD THE LOWER TEXAS COAST
FROM THE LOW...I EXPECT ENOUGH FORCING TO BE IN PLACE TO KEEP AT
LEAST AN ISOLATED SMATTERING OF SHOWERS AROUND FOR THE MORNING HOURS.
THE INFLUENCE OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE LOW SHOULD LESSEN AT
MID-WEEK...AS IT STARTS SLIDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF.
WINDS SHOULD BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY AS SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS
ACROSS THE OHIO AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO DRY FROM THE NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
GRADUALLY GET SHOVED SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES.
AS SUCH...THE GREATEST ODDS OF SEEING CONVECTION OVER EASTERN AREAS
SHOULD BE IN THE MORNING HOURS. LOCALES OVER OUR MORE WESTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN AREAS COULD SEE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES
HOLDING ON INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE ODDS OF SEEING STORMS IN MOST
PLACES SHOULD BE LOW...GIVEN WEAKENING AMOUNTS OF SYNOPTIC SCALE
FORCING AND THAT THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE SEEN AT THE
TIME OF DAY WHEN THERE`S A DIURNAL MINIMUM IN INSTABILITY. STILL
THOUGH...IT CANNOT BE DISCOUNTED BY AFTERNOON.
IN ADDITION TO THE RAIN PROBLEM...WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME COASTAL FLOODING AT MID-WEEK. ROUGH SWELLS FROM
THE EAST-NORTHEAST WILL LIKELY COMBINE WITH HIGHER THAN NORMAL
ASTRONMICAL TIDES TO YIELD THE THREAT DURING THE WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY
TIME FRAME. STAY TUNED.
ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD END BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THANKS TO THE
COMBINATION OF A STRENGTHENING RIDGE ALOFT AND (REALLY) DRIER AIR
MOVES SOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE. RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY
ACROSS MID-AMERICA FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE THE PACIFIC COAST.
GIVEN THE EXPECTED STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE BY THIS WEEKEND AND AMPLE
SUNSHINE...FORECAST TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RAISED A FEW DEGREES WITH
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. THERE`S STILL A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THINGS
DURING THE DAY 5 THROUGH 7 TIME PERIOD THOUGH...AS SOIL MOISTURE
FROM ANY RECENT RAINFALL MAY TEMPER HIGHS JUST A BIT. IN ADDITION
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL LIKELY WEAKEN BY SUNDAY OR MONDAY...AS THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NATION`S MIDSECTION.
THANKS TO WPC AND WFO CORPUS CHRISTI FOR COLLABORATION TODAY. /53/
&&
.MARINE...
NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
INCREASING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND GRADUALLY BUILDING SEAS OVER THE
FAR OFFSHORE WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE
SCEC CATEGORY TUESDAY NIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD AS WELL. /55/
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED HEADING INTO MID-WEEK THANKS
TO A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE MARINE AREA. SLIGHTLY
DIMINISHING WIND SPEEDS MAY ALLOW ANY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO BE
DROPPED AT SOME POINT DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...BUT SMALL CRAFT
WILL LIKELY NEED TO CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. INCREASED RIDGING OVER THE REGION FOR THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK SHOULD RESULT IN MORE MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. /53/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 74 86 74 84 / 10 20 20 20
BROWNSVILLE 72 87 73 85 / 10 20 20 20
HARLINGEN 70 87 71 85 / 10 20 20 20
MCALLEN 71 88 70 86 / 10 20 20 20
RIO GRANDE CITY 69 86 69 86 / 20 20 20 20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 76 84 77 84 / 10 20 20 20
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV
SHORT TERM FORECASTER... SCHOLL
LONG TERM FORECASTER... BUTTS
PSU/GRAPHICAST... MARTINEZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
432 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...EARLY THIS MORNING...A DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE GRADIENT WAS LOCATED FROM SOUTH TO NORTH FROM DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS TO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. AN AREA OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE
WAS ANALYZED TO EXIST ACROSS MOST OF THE LOWER AND MIDDLE TEXAS
COAST WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS TRYING TO DEVELOP AS A RESULT. PRIMARY
FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR TODAY IS HOW HIGH/LOW TO GO WITH POPS.
ISOLATED SHOWERS EARLY SHOULD INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE THROUGH
THE MORNING AS DEEPER MOISTURE SHIFTS NORTH SLIGHTLY WHILE AN AREA
OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE TRANSITIONS MORE TO AN AREA OF SPEED
CONVERGENCE. GREATEST POPS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA WITH PERHAPS A LOCAL MAXIMUM ACROSS SE ZONES WHERE AREA OF
CONVERGENCE IS PROG BY THE RUC AND NAM TO BE THE GREATEST.
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING CHANCES ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY
WHERE SOME OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE IS TRYING TO PICK UP
ON IMPACTS FROM A WEAK MID LEVEL S/W TROUGH. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE
LOW END CHANCE POPS FOR PRIMARILY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE BRUSH
COUNTRY. NE ZONES SHOULD SEE LITTLE TO NO PRECIP TODAY DUE TO
LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE LLVL
WIND PROFILE. INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED TODAY AND FOR NOW HAVE
OMITTED MENTION OF THUNDER IN OFFICIAL FORECAST...THROUGH A RUMBLE
OR TWO WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE. MAX TEMPS TODAY SHOULD BE THE
WARMEST ACROSS NE ZONES WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL BE THE THINNEST AND
CONDITIONS THE DRIEST. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS THE
BRUSH COUNTRY EARLY THIS EVENING BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MID
EVENING WITH MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS REMAINING DRY AREAWIDE AS
DEEPER MOISTURE BEGINS TO SHIFT BACK SOUTH. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE
LOWER ON TUESDAY AS DRIER AIR BUILDS IN WITH MAX TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY AS A RESULT.
&&
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL
BE LINGER OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN
SOUTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY. MODELS DEPICT A
WEAKENING MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF NORTHERN MEXICO
AND TEXAS BIG BEND INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU ON WEDNESDAY. WILL SHOW
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER FAR WEST WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...DRIER AIR
PUSHES IN FROM THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH THE
WEAKENING SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH TEXAS ON THURSDAY...THE
DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS SHOULD LIMIT RAIN POTENTIAL. GRADIENT
WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WHILE THE
LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE DEVELOPS. MODERATE EAST TO
NORTHEAST WINDS COULD LEAD TO SCA CONDITIONS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS
DURING THIS PERIOD. TIDE LEVELS MAY INCREASE TO ABOUT A FOOT ABOVE
PREDICTED BY WEDNESDAY AS HIGHER SWELLS AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW
AFFECT THE COAST. 00Z ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
STRONG MID LEVEL LOW MOVING FROM SOUTHEAST TEXAS FRIDAY INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO SATURDAY...WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW MORE
PROGRESSIVE. EXPECT DRIER CONDITIONS AND WEAK NORTHEAST WINDS TO
PREVAIL FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH A WEAK ONSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPING BY SUNDAY. MILD MORNING LOWS ARE EXPECTED WHILE HIGH
TEMPS REBOUND TO NEAR-SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY THE WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 84 70 86 66 84 / 40 10 20 10 10
VICTORIA 86 62 87 60 84 / 10 10 10 10 10
LAREDO 85 71 87 67 86 / 40 20 20 20 20
ALICE 85 69 88 65 86 / 50 10 20 20 10
ROCKPORT 85 70 86 69 84 / 20 10 10 10 10
COTULLA 85 68 86 63 86 / 20 10 20 10 10
KINGSVILLE 85 70 87 66 85 / 50 10 20 20 10
NAVY CORPUS 85 73 85 71 83 / 40 10 20 10 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
RH/79...SHORT TERM
TMT/89...LONG TERM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
140 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE AREA TODAY AND
CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...AND THEN STALL AND
TRANSITION INTO AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION BY WEDNESDAY. FOR OUR REGION THIS SERIES OF EVENTS WILL
RESULT IN INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 135 PM EDT MONDAY...
HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST THAT IMPACT THE
FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. FIRST...PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF THE REGION IS ALLOWING THE
TEMPERATURE TO REACH TO WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURES ALREADY. CLOUDS ARE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...BUT
THEY WILL NOT ARRIVE BEFORE THE IMPACT OF THE SUNSHINE HELPS
TEMPERATURES CLIMB AT LEAST ANOTHER 3 TO 5 DEGREES. AS SUCH...HAVE
INCREASED FORECAST HIGHS BY ROUGHLY THIS MUCH ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION. SECONDLY...THE APPROACHING LIGHT PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY
IN SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA IS ON TRACK TO ENTER THE REGION AS
CURRENTLY FORECAST. HOWEVER...BOTH THE HRRR AND RNK WRK ARW
SOLUTIONS...AND CURRENT REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS...SUGGEST A BIT MORE
OF A BREAK BETWEEN THIS FIRST WAVE...AND THE SECOND ONE THAT IS
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE THIS EVENING. AS SUCH...HAVE ATTEMPTED TO
DEPICT THIS PATTERN WITHIN THE HOURLY NDFD POP AND WEATHER GRIDS
DURING THIS TIME FRAME. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANCES AT THIS TIME.
AS OF 1045 AM EDT MONDAY...
ALL FROST/FREEZE PRODUCTS HAVE EXPIRED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY IS SHOWING A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...UPSTREAM RADARS SHOW A BAND OF PCPN
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER TROF MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN US. MESO MODELS
SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD GRASP OF THE SITUATION AND BASED ON
THIS...WILL BUMP TIMING OF POPS UP A COUPLE OF HOURS TO REFLECT
EXPECTED TRENDS. OTHER PARAMETERS ARE ON TRACK WITH CURRENT GRID
SET SO WILL FRESHEN WITH CURRENT DATA AND MAKE ONLY MINOR TREND
ADJUSTMENTS.
.PREVIOUS AFD...
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE QUICKLY MELTING AWAY ANY FROST AFTER
SUNRISE. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL START TO INCREASE AROUND NOON...AND
BE NEAR 10 MPH AT MOST LOCATIONS BY THE AFTERNOON. HIGH LEVEL
CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE INTO THIS AFTERNOON FROM WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH.
LEANED HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON CLOSE TO THE ADJMETBC
WITH READINGS FROM THE MID 50S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE
UPPER 60S IN THE PIEDMONT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS TONIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AS
ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES ALONG THE APPALACHIAN
CHAIN IN ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT. THE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL MAKE FOR WARMER OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S IN MOST
LOCATIONS...ALTHOUGH A FEW OF THE HIGHER RIDGES MAY REMAIN IN THE
LOWER 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY...
FOCUS THROUGH THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON A SLOW MOVING
CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL BE
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...MEANDERING TOWARD THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION WED-THU. AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF MODEL RUNS TAKING
THE CENTER OF THIS SYSTEM FURTHER NORTH...THE LATEST MODEL RUNS
HAVE TRENDED FURTHER SOUTH ONCE AGAIN...BUT REMAINING FAR ENOUGH
EAST THAT IT WILL STILL LEAVE THE CWA ON THE DRIER SOUTHWEST SIDE
OF THE SYSTEM. THE PRIMARY...LEADING WAVE AND ASSOCIATED LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WILL TRACK FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT...THEN TUE INTO EARLY WED...THE UPPER LOW WILL DIVE TO ITS
SOUTHERN MOST POSITION...TOWARD EAST CENTRAL VA. IN SO DOING...THE
NEXT LOBE OF PVA WILL WILL TRACK FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION AND RESULT IN A SLIGHT UPTICK IN RAIN SHOWER COVERAGE.
OTHERWISE...MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY CYCLONIC
FLOW...ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...SCT -SHRA...MAINLY MOUNTAINS AND
AREAS NORTH OF U.S. 460. THE BEST OVERALL COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD COME WITH THIS
AFOREMENTIONED LOBE OF PVA AS THE UPPER LOW ROTATES TO A POSITION
JUST OFF THE DELMARVA BY WED EVENING. TOTAL QPF THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL RANGE FROM ABOUT 1/3 INCH NORTHERN GREENBRIER COUNTY TO TRACE
AMOUNTS AT BEST ACROSS MOST OF THE NC AND VA PIEDMONT COUNTIES.
THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA WILL SEE LESS THAN 1/10 INCH OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE ENTIRE EVENT. SLOW IMPROVEMENT CAN BE
EXPECTED THU AS THE UPPER LOW ROTATES BACK TOWARD NEW
ENGLAND...ALLOWING DRIER AIR FROM THE MIDWEST TO BEGIN TO SPREAD
INTO WESTERN AREAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE COOL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ABUNDANT
CLOUD COVER AND 850MB TEMPS HOVERING IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGIT
CENTIGRADE RANGE. THERE IS A POCKET OF NEAR 0C 850MB TEMPS ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW THAT SETTLES DOWN OVER THE WESTERN PART
OF THE CWA EARLY THU...BUT THE CHANCE OF PCPN AT THAT TIME IN
THAT REGION IS NEAR ZERO...SO NO CONCERNS WITH WINTER
PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THIS EVENT...EVEN AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
WE MAY NEED TO ENTERTAIN FROST/FREEZE ADVISORIES LATE IN THE WEEK
ONCE AGAIN...BUT AGAIN APPEARS TO BE A MARGINAL SITUATION.
USED A MODEL BLEND OF MAX/MIN TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...WITH MIN TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT MONDAY...
THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY LIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION FRI-
SAT AS A BROAD UPPER RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. INTO THE
EASTERN U.S. THIS UPPER RIDGE WILL EFFECTIVELY SHUT OFF ALL
GULF MOISTURE FROM THE REGION FOR SEVERAL DAYS AS WELL AS LOCKING
ANY REALLY COLD AIR WELL NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER. A
WEAK...DRY UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE
REGION FRI-SAT...WHICH AT THIS POINT APPEARS TO DO LITTLE MORE
THAN BRING A FEW MID/HIGH CLOUDS. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT WILL THEN DOMINATE FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS FOR A CHANGE ALONG WITH SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES...LOWS IN THE 40S AND HIGHS IN THE 60S WEST AND 70S
EAST. SHOULD BE A BEAUTIFUL WEEKEND FOR THE ENTIRE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT MONDAY...
TAF PERIOD WILL START OFF GOOD ENOUGH WITH VFR FOR ALL SITES.
HOWEVER...RADAR SHOWS A BAND OF PCPN HEADING IN FROM THE WEST
ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER
TROF MOVING INTO THE ERN US. SITES MOST AFFECTED BY THE PCPN
WILL BE FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WEST. UPSTREAM LOCATIONS ALSO DO
NOT SHOW VERY LOW CIGS WITH THIS PCPN. WILL TIME THE BAND OF
PCPN WEST TO EAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND KEEP CIGS VFR WITH A
TEMPO TO MVFR FOR VSBY WITH SHOWERS FROM THE RIDGE WEST.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LAGS A BIT SO CIGS LOOK TO STAY UP THROUGH
EARLY TONIGHT. FLOW IS A BIT LAZY IN SWINGING AROUND TO A GOOD
NWLY UPSLOPE DIRECTION AND THIS LOOKS TO PREVENT KBLF FROM HAVING
A SOLID IFR CIG SET IN. SHOULD BE ENOUGH CLOUDS AND ENOUGH OF A
LIGHT WIND TO KEEP THINGS MIXED AND PREVENT SIGNIFICANT OBVIS
FROM SETTING UP. ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL SWING
THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT...BUT THE BEST SHOT LOOKS TO HOLD
OFF UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD WHEN DIURNAL HEATING AND
A BETTER NW UPSLOPE FETCH WILL HELP GET SHOWERS AND LOWER CIGS
GOING WEST OF THE RIDGE.
WINDS MAY BE A BIT GUSTY EARLY IN THE PERIOD...THEN AGAIN VERY
LATE IN THE PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING AND
DEEPEN INTO A NEARLY STATIONARY CLOSED LOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION BY WEDNESDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE SLOW MOVEMENT NORTHEAST
THROUGH THURSDAY. FOR OUR REGION...THE MAIN IMPACT WITH BE A
PERSISTENT NORTHWEST GUSTY WIND AND SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS THAT
WILL IMPACT PRIMARILY THE PREFERRED UPSLOPE REGION OF SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA. MVFR CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE COMMON ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT FROM ROA TO LYH TO DAN
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE
PERSISTENT TROUGH WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AND LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE
CLOUDS IN WEST WILL LIKELY BE REPLACED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BY
FRIDAY OR SATURDAY...FOR DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...DS/KK/MBS
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...NF/RAB
AVIATION...MBS
YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
925 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014
.UPDATE...MAY EXPERIENCE A BLEND OF FROST AND FREEZING FOG LATER
TONIGHT DUE TO MODERATE TO STRONG INVERSION SETTING UP AND
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. AS TEMPS FALL BELOW FREEZING...
PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG MAY DEPOSIT THIN ICE COATING ON SUSCEPTIBLE
PORTIONS OF ROADWAYS. WL NEED TO WATCH PAVEMENT TEMPS CLOSELY
LATER TONIGHT. LOWERED MOST LOCATIONS MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
OVERNIGHT SEVERAL DEGREES. SOME LOCATIONS MAY FALL INTO THE MID
20S.
&&
.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...THINKING MOST OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WL
GO INTO FROST DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER NOT IMPOSSIBLE SOME PATCHY LIGHT
FOG MAY DEVELOP. TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS
POINT. OTRW VFR CONDITIONS FOR THIS TAF PERIOD WITH LIGHT WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...WILL LET SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY RUN ITS COURSE AND EXPIRE
AT 06Z. NORTHEAST WINDS STILL GUSTING UP TO 20 KNOTS AT THE
LAKESHORE WITH SUSTAINED WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS ON THE SHORE AND ON
OFFSHORE VESSELS. WAVE HEIGHTS STILL 5 FEET AT THE BUOY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/
SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.
AREA OF LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH
SOUTHWEST AND SLOWLY DISSIPATE UNTIL SUNSET...PER 1000/850MB
RELATIVE HUMIDITY FIELDS IN MODELS AND HRRR CEILING FORECASTS.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT...THEN TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL WEAKEN WITH THE HIGH THIS EVENING...WITH
LIGHT/CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL TUMBLE INTO THE 29 TO 34 DEGREE RANGE AWAY
FROM LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT...SO MORE FROST IS EXPECTED EXCEPT RIGHT
ALONG THE LAKESHORE. HIGHS WEDNESDAY SHOULD ONLY REACH THE LOWER TO
MID 50S...PER 925 MB TEMPERATURE FIELDS FROM MODELS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS WED NT AND INTO
THE WRN GREAT LAKES FOR THU. AT THE SFC...A WEAKENING TROUGH WILL
ACCOMPANY THE UPPER FEATURE AND MOVE ACROSS SRN WI THU NT ALONG
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE EVENING. DUE TO THE
WEAKENING OF THE TROUGH AND SLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT...AN EAST TO WEST
POP GRADIENT IS FORECAST OVER THE AREA. LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI FROM THU AM INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH ONLY
CHANCES IN FAR ERN WI. TEMPS WILL REMAIN COOL FOR THU. LOW POPS
WILL LINGER INTO THU NT WITH DRYING AFTERWARD. A WEAK SFC RIDGE
WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THU NT AND FRI. IN ADDITION...A
DRY ATM AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT WILL LEAD TO MILD TEMPS FOR
FRI.
LONG TERM...
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
A WLY FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING INTO SAT AHEAD OF A
AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT FROM CANADA. THE POLAR TROUGH AND
SFC LOW WITH THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN IN CANADA...THUS THE FRONT
WILL BE DRY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR SAT NT AND
TRANSITION TO SLY FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION FOR SUN. THE WAA PATTERN
IS DUE TO CYCLOGENESIS FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO CANADA. A BROAD
N-S UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN TRACK ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT
PLAINS FOR SUN NT AND MON. ONLY A WEAK N-S SFC TROUGH IS EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME WITH ONLY LOW POPS FOR PCPN FOR MON-TUE...BUT
STRONGER CYCLOGENESIS AND HIGHER CHANCES OF RAIN COULD BE
POSSIBLE.
AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER UNTIL SUNSET ACROSS TAF SITES.
OVERCAST SKIES WILL BECOME BROKEN...THEN SCATTER OUT BY EARLY THIS
EVENING. SKIES SHOULD THEN REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. MAY SEE SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.
BRISK NORTH WINDS WILL LINGER UNTIL SUNSET AT THE EASTERN TAF
SITES...WITH NORTHEAST WINDS AT MADISON. WINDS WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT
AND BECOME EASTERLY...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.
MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES UNTIL 06Z WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE
NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. GUSTY NORTH WINDS OF 15 TO 20
KNOTS ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY EVENING...WITH A FEW 25 KNOT GUSTS.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT WAVES OF 3 TO 6 FEET. WINDS AND WAVES
WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENS.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ643>646.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MBK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1146 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING A WARM FRONT RUNNING NORTH-SOUTH THROUGH
CENTRAL MN INTO A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW NEAR KINL. THE FRONT THEN
EXTENDS NORTHWEST TO LAKE WINNIPEG AS A STATIONARY FRONT WITH COLD
AIR EAST. THE SURFACE CYCLONE IS MOST CLOSELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
STRONGEST SHORTWAVE TROUGH SOUTH OF LAKE WINNIPEG WHERE
TROPOPAUSE FOLDS DOWN TO NEARLY 750 MB /PER RAP ANALYSIS/...PRETTY
IMPRESSIVE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS WEAKER TROUGH ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH WISCONSIN AT THIS TIME WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURL IN
NORTH-CENTRAL WI 20Z. THE MAIN WATER VAPOR SIGNAL IS VERY DRY AIR
BEHIND THIS FIRST TROUGH...NOT MAKING IT EASY FOR FOR THE STRONGER
LAKE WINNIPEG TROUGH TO CREATE PRECIPITATION ALONE WITHOUT LOW-
LEVEL HELP. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM IN SRN
CANADA IS EAST OF THE FRONT AND CYCLONE IN VERY LOW CLOUD. THIS
ENTIRE SYSTEM WAS SHIFTING SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES.
WILL BE CLEARING THE SPRINKLES IN THE FORECAST EAST IN THE NEXT
HOURS...AND CLEARING SKIES AS THE WI SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES. AIR
MASS IS VERY DRY IN THIS FORCING /PER KMPX AND KGRB 12Z
RAOBS/...BUT SOME STEEPER LAPSE RATES AROUND 7-7.5C/KM IN MID-
LEVELS IS CAUSING 10KFT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. ONLY HIT AND MISS
SPRINKLES HITTING THE GROUND.
WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT IN THIS EVENING AND CYCLONE
WILL PASS THROUGH THRU GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. QG FORCING ALOFT
INCREASES OVERNIGHT WITH THE LAKE WINNIPEG SHORTWAVE TROUGH...BUT
THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL DEEPER LIFT REMAINS CLOSER TO THE SURFACE
CYCLONE TRACK - MORE FOR THE NRN GREAT LAKES. AIR MASS IN PLACE
WITH THE FORCING COMING OVER THE FORECAST AREA SUGGESTS NO
WEATHER.
COLD AIR PUSH DIVES INTO WISCONSIN AND GREAT LAKES POST-LOW ON
MONDAY..BRINGING LOWER OVERCAST WITH IT. THE FRONT WILL LIE UP
THROUGH WESTERN WISCONSIN WITH LOWER CLOUDS AND SOME VERY LOW CAPE
EAST OF THE FRONT ACROSS WI. THERE MAY BE SOME SPRINKLES AROUND
NRN-ERN WI MONDAY...HAVE NOT ADD THOSE TO THE FORECAST HOWEVER.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014
MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...RIDGE BUILDING WILL DOMINATE THIS PERIOD
WITH CLEARING SKIES MONDAY NIGHT. SOME RIVER VALLEY FOG IS
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT SOME SUGGESTION OF WINDS AT THE
TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER COULD BE LIMITING. WILL ADD PATCHY RIVER
VALLEY FOG TO FORECAST FOR NOW.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
PREDICTABILITY TAKES A NOTICEABLE DROP AFTER WEDNESDAY AS SEEN IN
THE SPREAD OF DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE. IN THE LONG WAVE
PATTERN...COMPLEX READJUSTMENT IS OCCURRING IN THIS PERIOD WITH A
A DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND CENTRAL RIDGING.
WILL CONTINUE TO USE A BLENDED DETERMINISTIC FORECAST FOR RAIN
CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS IT APPEARS THE
CONSENSUS CONTINUES FOR A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE AND
SOME WEAK FORCING. SMALL RAIN CHANCES IN THE 30 PERCENT RANGE FOR
NOW ON WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY ARE CONTINUED UNTIL MORE CONFIDENCE
CAN BE BUILT IN THE SIGNAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST TO NORTH FOR LATE TONIGHT...
MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING. WIND SPEEDS MOSTLY 6-12KTS WITH WITH
DIURNAL WARMING/MIXING ALLOWING FOR SOME 20KT GUSTS AT KRST DURING
THE EARLY/MID AFTERNOON HOURS. QUIET/SKC VFR CONDITIONS THRU 14Z
THIS MORNING. CYCLONIC FLOW WRAPPING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL
SPREAD SOME LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA MON...
MAINLY ALONG/EAST OF THE MS RIVER. LEFT KRST WITH SCT STRATO-CU
CLOUDS MON WHILE KLSE LOOKS TO HAVE MORE OF A BKN-SCT VFR CLOUD DECK
MUCH OF MON. SIGNAL FOR THIS MOISTURE TO THIN WITH SOME STRONGER 925-
700MB SUBSIDENCE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA MON EVENING. WILL SCATTER
OUT THE CLOUDS AT KLSE AFTER 23Z FOR NOW...BUT GIVEN WEAK CYCLONIC
925MB FLOW AND PLENTY OF CLOUDS/MOISTURE UPSTREAM ACROSS ONTARIO...
AND A STRONG INVERSION NEAR 850MB...CONFIDENCE IN A QUICK DECREASE
OF CLOUDS MON EVENING IS AVERAGE AT BEST.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BAUMGARDT
LONG TERM....BAUMGARDT
AVIATION.....RRS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1232 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
.DISCUSSION...
749 PM CDT
FOR AN EVENING UPDATE HAVE HELD ON TO FORECAST CLOUD COVER LONGER
TONIGHT...NAMELY FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
CHICAGO METRO AND SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FROM THERE.
SURFACE RIDGING IS BUILDING SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING INTO NORTHERN
ILLINOIS AND WIND SPEEDS HAVE COME DOWN QUITE A BIT OUTSIDE OF THE
IMMEDIATE LAKE SHORE. SUBSIDENCE ALOFT IS CONTINUING AS WELL PER
WATER VAPOR AND DIAGNOSTIC MODEL SOUNDINGS...BUT CLOUDS HAVE
SLOWED THEIR RATE OF DIMINISHING...POSSIBLY DUE TO NO MORE CLOUD
TOP WARMING FROM THE SUN.
WHILE THE CLOUD LAYER IS VERY THIN IN DEPTH AS INDICATED BY
REGIONAL AMDAR DATA...FORESEE CLOUDS HANGING ON A WHILE LONGER
WITH NIGHTFALL. THE LOCAL 8KM ARW...AND RAP TO SOME DEGREE...INDICATE
LITTLE MOVEMENT IN THE MOST SOLID SATURATION ALONG AND EAST OF
INTERSTATE 55 THROUGH MIDNIGHT...AND THEN AS CLOUD-BEARING FLOW
TURNS EASTERLY THE MOISTURE ADVECTS WITH IT AND GRADUALLY THINS.
THIS WAS GENERALLY DEPICTED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT JUST
HAVE SHIFTED BACK IN TIMING SEVERAL HOURS.
MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES TO BETTER FIT THIS
REASONING AND THAT DID LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN MIN TEMPS IN A FEW
PLACES...BUT OTHERWISE NO CHANGES MADE.
MTF
//PREV DISCUSSION...
309 PM CDT
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOCUS ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND TIMING
WITH A COUPLE OF SYSTEMS WHICH WILL AFFECT THE REGION THURSDAY AND
NEXT MONDAY. ALSO...IT APPEARS THAT SOME 70 DEGREE TEMPERATURES ARE
POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AS WELL AS
ON MONDAY.
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A STRONG MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WHICH HAD DUG SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY IS NOW EXITING
THE AREA ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE SOUTHEAST. SUBSIDENCE IN THE
WAKE OF THIS FEATURE WAS EVIDENT BOTH IN RISING SURFACE PRESSURE
ACROSS THE CWA...AND IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AS EXTENSIVE AREA
OF STRATOCU ACROSS THE REGION ERODES FROM THE NORTH ACROSS WI/MI AND
LAKE MICHIGAN. EARLIER LAKE-INDUCED SHOWERS HAVE WEAKENED AND FADED
AS EXPECTED DUE TO LOWERING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND ASSOCIATED
WARMING ALOFT. CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN
COVERAGE INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH PERHAPS JUST SOME PATCHY THIN
SHALLOW STRATOCU LINGERING OFF THE LAKE BY LATE EVENING. LOOKING AT
THE BIGGER PICTURE...HIGH-AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE ANALYZED OVER THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE NATION WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND WESTERN/NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING...MAINTAINING SUBSIDENCE WHICH SHOULD FURTHER ERODE
LINGERING CLOUDS AND ALLOW SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WITH CLEARING SKIES AND
DECREASING WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS TONIGHT...
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP OFF INTO THE 30S IN MANY AREAS AWAY FROM
THE IMMEDIATE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE AND CORE OF CHICAGO. LATE NIGHT
MINS IN THE MID 30S AWAY FROM THE METRO AREA WILL LIKELY ALLOW AREAS
OF FROST TO DEVELOP WHERE WINDS DECOUPLE BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE.
UPPER AND LOW LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES REMAIN OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY ALLOWING PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE...THOUGH WITH ONLY MODEST
WARMING DUE TO EASTERLY WIND COMPONENT OFF LAKE AND COOLER UPSTREAM
AIR MASS. A BLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE APPEARS REASONABLE BASED ON RAW
MODEL LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS...WITH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON MAXES
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S ALONG THE LAKE TO THE UPPER 50S
ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN/SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA. ATTENTION THEN
TURNS BACK TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS A WELL-DEFINED
SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND
DAKOTAS BEFORE APPROACHING THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. HEIGHT/PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST NUDGES THE
SURFACE RIDGE AWAY TO OUR EAST AND INDUCES INCREASING
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH
OVERNIGHT. CLEAR-PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
LIKELY ALLOW FOR QUICK DECOUPLING OF BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS EARLY
WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE 30S AGAIN IN OUTLYING
AREAS...THOUGH SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS AND THE INCREASE IN
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL LIKELY LIMIT FROST SOMEWHAT.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE UPPER MIDWEST SHORT WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY...WITH THE BEST ORGANIZED DEEP LIFT
GENERALLY NORTH OF THE WFO CHICAGO CWA. THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
DOES SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA LATER IN THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT HOWEVER...
THOUGH WITH MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE GULF INITIALLY BLOCKED BY THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WHICH EXTENDS SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
ARKLATEX REGION FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THUS MOISTURE RETURN IS NOT
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM...THOUGH A PERIOD OF SHOWERS DOES
LOOK FAIRLY LIKELY THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. PRECIP POTENTIAL
LOOKS TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AS IT MOVES INTO
NORTH CENTRAL IL DURING THE MID-LATE MORNING HOURS AND SPREADING
INTO NORTHEAST IL DURING THE AFTERNOON. FORCING WEAKENS THURSDAY
EVENING AS THE TROUGH RUNS INTO THE WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE...WITH
PRECIP EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE SPOTTY THURSDAY NIGHT AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND
WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT OF PACIFIC ORIGIN PASS EAST OF
THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING...WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN DURING
THE DAY. TEMPERATURES ACTUALLY WARM IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM AS
THE SURFACE RIDGE DRIFTS EAST DURING THE DAY AND WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
AROUND REBUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS ALLOWS WARM ADVECTION
BY AFTERNOON. MODEL THERMAL PROGS INDICATE SOME LOW-MID 60S ACROSS
NORTHERN IL FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
LONGER RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SPREADING BROAD
UPPER RIDGE EASTWARD FROM THE PLAINS AND ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND
GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHILE DEEP UPPER TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. MODELS DEPICT STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
AND WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPING AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND
LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS AND THE UPPER MIDWEST SUNDAY...
THOUGH AGAIN WITH LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN FOR THE MAGNITUDE OF THE
FLOW. THIS ALLOWS US TO WARM UP SIGNIFICANTLY HOWEVER...WITH HIGHS
LIKELY GETTING ABOVE 70 DEGREES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CWA...AND OVER MOST OF IT MONDAY. SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT
APPROACHES MONDAY WITH AN ATTENDANT CHANCE OF RAIN AND INCREASED
CLOUD COVER. A SECOND LOW IS DEPICTED LIFTING ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT-TUESDAY MAINTAINING RAIN THREAT...AND ALSO LEADING TO MUCH
COOLER WEATHER AGAIN TUESDAY BEHIND THE SYSTEM COLD FRONT.
RATZER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* MVFR CIGS EARLY THIS MORNING.
* EAST WINDS MID MORNING THRU EARLY EVENING. CMS
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. LIGHT
EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST LATER THIS MORNING...
THEN TURN BACK EAST/NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH A POSSIBLE LAKE
BREEZE. PREVAILING SPEEDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN UNDER 10KTS.
HIGH MVFR CIGS AROUND 3KFT WILL SLOWLY SCATTER OUT AND DISSIPATE
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SKC EXPECTED LATER TODAY WITH INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT. CMS
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* MEDIUM FOR MVFR CIGS EARLY THIS MORNING.
* HIGH FOR WIND THRU THE PERIOD. CMS
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
* THURSDAY...CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHRA. SOUTH WINDS.
* FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...DRY/VFR. WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS.
* SUNDAY...DRY/VFR. SOUTH WINDS.
* MONDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS.
KJB
&&
.MARINE...
215 PM...LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN NEW YORK WILL MERGE WITH ANOTHER
LOW OVER NEAR THE DELMARVA AREA TONIGHT...AND RAPIDLY DEEPEN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY JUST SOUTH OF CAPE COD. THIS LOW WILL
THEN TRACK NORTHEAST TO NOVA SCOTIA BY SATURDAY MORNING.
MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN TIP OF JAMES
BAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING EXTENDING THROUGH THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WILL SLOWLY BUILD EAST. THE BRISK
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS CURRENTLY OVER THE LAKE WILL DIMINISH AND
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY AS THE
RIDGE AXIS CROSSES THE LAKE. WHILE WINDS SHOULD DROP BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS DURG THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING...RESIDUAL WAVE ACTION WILL BE SLOWER TO DAMPEN AND STILL
EXPECT THAT WAVES WILL REMAIN...ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. AS THE RIDGE MOVES TO THE EAST OF THE
LAKE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...REACHING THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY THURSDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL SET UP A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY GRADIENT OVER
THE LAKE WITH WINDS INCREASING TO ARND 20-25KT THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY UNTIL AN ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT
PUSHES ACROSS THE LAKE THURSDAY NIGHT.
KREIN
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 4 AM WEDNESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
309 AM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 249 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
Current indications are that the mid/upper level trough is exiting
the Rockies this morning as it continues to lift to the east
northeast. A shortwave within the trough was located over Colorado,
and that energy will pass over the area later this evening and
overnight. Ahead the approaching trough mid level warm advection has
begun across far eastern KS as evident from the stratocumulus deck
seen forming on IR. The NAM is the most aggressive with the
isentropic lift, which maximizes near the MO/KS state between
10-14Z. Therefore have kept sprinkles in the forecast for those
locations. Later today high temperatures reach the mid to upper 70s
across the area with the exception of a low 80s in some western
counties.
This evening the trough advances through the central plains, which
will provide the lift needed for a band of showers to progress
across eastern KS. The better frontogenesis appears to stay north of
the area, and indeed the surface reflection associated with this
system may not be that obvious. Forecast amounts are around a
quarter of an inch for most locations. Models are still indicating
weak instability despite the poor lapse rates so isolated thunder
will still be possible. Precip should arrive to north central KS
around 21Z, the Topeka area by 06Z, and be confined to far eastern
KS by 12Z. Soundings show that as the precip ends the lack of any
dry air advection with the persistent southerly flow could lead to
fog and eventually low stratus. At this point it is difficult to pin
down the extent, but have added patchy fog to the forecast across
north central KS where there is a better possibility of clouds
clearing out before 12Z.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 249 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
Thursday, the upper level trough will move across eastern KS during
the morning hours. The lingering showers and perhaps an isolated
elevated thunderstorms will move east into MO during the mid and
late morning hours. The weak front that will move into central KS
will under go frontolysis as a lee trough begins to deepen across
the central high plains. Clouds will decrease across the western
counties through the morning hours and skies should become partly
cloudy into the afternoon hours across the eastern counties of the
CWA. Highs will reach the mid 70s as insolation helps to warm
temperatures through the afternoon hours.
Thursday night through Sunday Night, Summer like temperatures will
occur across the region as an upper level ridge across the western
US builds east across the central and southern plains. Highs Friday
will reach the lower to mid 80s. Highs may cool back to the upper
70s to around 80 on Saturday as weak back door cold front moves
southwest across the CWA early Saturday morning switching winds to
the northeast and east. The next H5 trough will move into the
central Rockies on Sunday. The lee surface trough across high plains
will deepen during the day Sunday and southerly winds across the CWA
will cause temperatures to warm back into the lower to mid 80s
Sunday afternoon.
Monday through Tuesday, the upper level trough across the central
Rockies will move east across the plains. A cold front will pushes
east across the CWA late Monday afternoon. The combination of
ascent ahead of the approaching H5 trough and surface convergence
ahead of the front will cause showers and isolated thunderstorms
to develop across the CWA during the afternoon hours of Monday. These
showers and thunderstorms will continue through Monday night
before ending early Tuesday morning as the H5 trough lifts
northeast towards the mid MS river valley and the cold front
pushes southeast of the CWA. Highs on Monday ahead of the front
should reach the lower to mid 70s. Highs on Tuesday will be closer
to seasonal norms, with highs in the lower to mid 60s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1129 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014
The NAM has seemed to develop the light precip this morning closer
to the MO state line, and since the RAP and HRRR continue to keep
the terminals dry will maintain a dry forecast. Stratocu deck is
just now beginning to form. Most guidance points to this deck
remaining above 3 KFT. So expect VFR conditions to prevail. Upper
trough moves across the area overnight with very limited
instability. There may be enough forcing within the moisture axis
for some light showers, which appear more likely aft 06Z for TOP
and FOE. Will include a TEMPO for -SHRA late in the evening for
MHK.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...Gargan
AVIATION...Wolters
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
1129 PM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014
...AVIATION UPDATE...
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014
At 3 PM this afternoon, water vapor imagery showed much of the
Plains region underneath upper ridging while the shortwave trough
was deepening across Idaho into southern Montana. Gusty southerly
winds at the surface were observed advecting moisture into central
KS as dewpoint temperatures were increasing to near 60 degrees.
Across northeast Kansas, highs were a tad cooler in the middle 70s
while influence from the sfc ridge to our east kept surface air
drier with dewpoints dropping into the lower 40s.
Surface trough deepens over eastern CO this evening inducing an
h85 low level jet to increase around 30 kts. Moisture advects
northeastward into the CWA as dewpoints rise into the 50s
overnight. Mixing between h85 and the surface also increases to
near 10 kts over north central areas where low level stratus
appears more likely as opposed to fog. Weak isentropic lift at the
300K surface seen from the NAM and 4-km WRF models show
development of isolated activity over far eastern KS just before
sunrise. With forcing being particularly weak and saturation being
brief in the morning, decided to mention a few sprinkles being
possible. Otherwise focus turns to the incoming trough Wednesday
afternoon with slight chances of precip mentioned after 18Z.
Timing between short term and mid term guidance shows the optimal
lift arriving in north central areas near 00Z, however could not
rule out scattered showers during the afternoon. Elevated
instability seen in only a few hundred J/KG may result in isolated
thunderstorms.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014
Upper trough continues to move across the forecast area in the early
morning hours on Thursday. Lapse rates and CAPE remain rather weak,
and progressive nature keeps chances for heavy rainfall on the low
side. Have precipitation clearing the area by Noon, but could be a
few hours faster. This keeps overnight lows in the 50s, and highs
still manage to make it back into the lower 70s after the trough
passes.
In terms of sensible weather, Friday through Sunday continue to
bring above normal temperatures with highs in the upper 70s near
80 each day and lows in the 50s. Winds initially vary a bit as low
pressure passes to our north, but come around out of the south by
late Saturday and increase on Sunday afternoon. Flow aloft makes a
shift from a passing upper ridge to an approaching trough with SW
flow over the state.
Timing of the next upper trough still in question, although both GFS
and latest EC bring the next front through on Monday afternoon. EC
had split the energy into northern and southern tracks but now
seems to be coming toward a single more progressive single wave.
Kept lower end rain chances on Monday, which could continue into
Tuesday if system slows a bit as EC suggests. May be cooler across
the NW counties on Monday as trough comes in and cooler on Tuesday
behind the system.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1129 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014
The NAM has seemed to develop the light precip this morning closer
to the MO state line, and since the RAP and HRRR continue to keep
the terminals dry will maintain a dry forecast. Stratocu deck is
just now beginning to form. Most guidance points to this deck
remaining above 3 KFT. So expect VFR conditions to prevail. Upper
trough moves across the area overnight with very limited
instability. There may be enough forcing within the moisture axis
for some light showers, which appear more likely aft 06Z for TOP
and FOE. Will include a TEMPO for -SHRA late in the evening for
MHK.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...Wolters
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
559 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY WHILE SLOWLY TRACKING NORTHEAST OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. COOL AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY...FOLLOWED BY DRIER CONDITIONS AND A
SLOW WARMING TREND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS ~1007 MB SFC LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING OFF THE
SE VA/NE NC COAST...WITH STRONG UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER WEST
CENTRAL VA. AREA OF SHOWERS OVERSPREADING PIEDMONT EARLY THIS
MORNING UNDER THE COLD POOL ALOFT...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS PUSHING OFF THE SE VA/NE NC COAST ASSOCIATED W/
SFC COLD FRONT AND WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY. LATEST RAP AND SPC
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 300-500 J/KG AS OF
09Z...SHIFTING OFFSHORE PRIOR TO 12Z SO WILL MAINTAIN MENTION OF
TSTMS ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THAT TIMEFRAME. OTHERWISE...SHOULD
BE TOO STABLE IN LOW LEVELS FOR ANY ADDITIONAL TSTMS.
LATER TODAY...CLOSED UPPER LOW SLOWLY PUSHES ESE AND SHOULD BE
CENTERED OFFSHORE BY 15-18Z. WILL CARRY LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL
(60-80%) POPS OVER MUCH OF THE CWA THROUGH LATE MORNING AS DEEP
MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE FAVORABLE THROUGH THIS PERIOD (CHC POPS
ACRS SOUTH CENTRAL VA AND INTERIOR NE NC WHERE LESS MOISTURE
RESIDES). AS THE UPPER LOW PIVOTS OFFSHORE...DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION AND HAVE TRENDED POPS DOWN TO 20% OR LESS
OVER SW ZONES...WHILE FAVORABLE LIFT AND MOISTURE PERSIST FARTHER
NORTH AND EAST. WILL MAINTAIN 60-80% POPS OVER THE ERN 1/2 TO 1/3
OF THE CWA THROUGH 20Z. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO BREAK UP FROM THE
SW LATER IN THE AFTN...MAY SEE SOME PEEKS OF SUN ACRS SOUTH
CENTRAL VA BY MID- LATE AFTN BUT OVERALL IT WILL STAY BKN/OVC.
HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPS A FEW MORE DEGREES GIVEN CURRENT READINGS
IN THE LOWER-MID 50S...GENLY NO BETTER THAN THE UPPER 50S TO
AROUND 60 F FOR MOST AREAS...WARMEST AREAS WILL BE OVER THE FAR SOUTH
AND ON THE ERN SHORE WHERE LOWER 60S ARE FORECAST. OTHER FEATURE TO NOTE
WILL BE THE INCREASING NW WINDS BY AFTN AS THE SFC LOW INTENSIFIES
FAIRLY RAPIDLY OFF THE COAST. GUSTS TO 25-35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE
BY LATER AFTN/EVENING (ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST).
THE CLOSED LOW MOVES FARTHER NE TONIGHT. HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS
WILL BE CONFINED TO THE ERN SHORE THIS EVENING...GENLY ONLY 20%-30%
POPS OR LOWER ELSEWHERE AFTER 00Z. DECREASING CLOUDS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED ACROSS INTERIOR VA/NC OVERNIGHT. REMAINING BREEZY TO
WINDY ESP NE SECTIONS. LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 40S ALONG AND WEST OF
I-95 TO THE LOW 50S NEAR THE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT IN BETWEEN SUB 1000 MB SFC
LOW OFF LONG ISLAND AND 1020 MB SFC HIGH OVER THE OH/TN VALLEY.
NAM SOLUTION IS OUTLIER WITH RESPECT TO IT`S LOCATION OF THE SFC
LOW WELL NORTH OF OTHER MODELS ON THU. THUS...NAM WINDS ARE
LIGHTER DUE TO A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT. FAVOR WINDS CLOSER TO A
GFS/ECMWF BLEND...WHICH YIELDS BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WITH
GUSTS TO 35 MPH ACRS THE ERN SHORE...25-30 MPH ELSEWHERE. A
20%-30% POP WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR THE ERN SHORE...DRY ELSEWHERE.
STILL ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A COLD POOL ALOFT FOR
SKIES TO AVG OUT MOSTLY CLOUDY N/E TO PARTLY SUNNY S/W (MAYBE
MOSTLY SUNNY OVER THE FAR SW). HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S/AROUND 60 F
ON THE MD ERN SHORE...TO THE UPPER 60S FOR INTERIOR NE NC AND
SOUTH CENTRAL VA. MOSTLY CLEAR SW TO PARTLY CLOUDY NE THU NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.
LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER NE AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA ON
FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR MAINLY SUNNY CONDS...DIMINISHING WINDS...AND
MILDER TEMPS. HIGH FRIDAY IN THE MID 60S NE TO AROUND 70 F SW.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS WELL TO THE NE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS
UPPER RIDGING EXPANDS EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL US. A WEAK TROUGH
CLIPS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY MOVES OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY. A HIGH AMPLITUDE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
ERN US MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING OFFSHORE BY
MIDWEEK. GIVEN THIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MEDIUM
RANGE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70 SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AND TREND UPWARD INTO THE LOW/MID BY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY (PERHAPS WARMER TUESDAY). LOWS SHOULD AVERAGE
FROM THE LOW/MID 40S NW...TO THE LOW/MID 50S FOR SE COASTAL
LOCATIONS.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LO PRES WILL DEVELOP OFF THE NRN MID ATLC CST THIS MORNG...THEN
WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NE OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND AND CANADIAN MARITIME CSTS TODAY THRU FRI. UPR LVL LO
WILL SWING OVR THE AREA THEN OFF THE CST TODAY INTO THIS
EVENG...BRINGING LWR CIGS (MVFR/POSSIBLY IFR) AND -RA TO THE TAF
SITES. NW OR N WINDS WILL PICK UP LATER THIS MORNG AND REMAIN
RATHER STRONG AND GUSTY INTO TNGT MOST TAF SITES. -RA WILL LAST
THE LONGEST OVR THE LWR MD/VA ERN SHR. BREEZY/WINDY OVR ERN HALF
OF THE REGION THRU THU...AS STRONG LO GRADUALLY MOVES AWAY TO THE
NE. COULD STILL BE SHOWERS OVR LWR MD (SBY) ALSO. HI PRES AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR FRI AND SAT.
&&
.MARINE...
LO PRES WILL FORM OFF THE NRN MID ATLC CST THIS MORNG...THEN WILL
CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND AND
CANADIAN MARITIME CSTS TODAY THRU FRI. NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
15 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO ARND 30 KT THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENG.
THEN...FM THIS EVENG THRU THU AFTN...GUSTS TO ARND 35 KT WILL BE
LIKELY OVR AT LEAST THE CHES BAY ZNS AND ON THE CSTL WTRS FM
FENWICK ISLAND TO CAPE CHARLES LGT. THUS...HAVE SCA RAMPING UP TO
A GALE WARNING IN THESE LOCATIONS FOR THIS EVENG INTO/THRU THU
AFTN. OTHRWISE...EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS OVR THE ENTIRE WTRS FM THIS
AFTN INTO EARLY FRI MORNG...AS STRNG LO PRES IS SLOW TO MOVE AWAY
TO THE NE. WITH THE FLOW BEING OFFSHORE FM THE NW...SEAS WOULD
TEND TO STAY CAPPED AT 5-7 FT AND TIDAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
N/NW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH SPEEDS
DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT AND SEAS SUBSIDING.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EDT
FRIDAY FOR ANZ633-635>638-656-658.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
ANZ630>632-634.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
ANZ650-652-654.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...JDM/LKB
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
503 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY WHILE SLOWLY TRACKING NORTHEAST OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. COOL AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY...FOLLOWED BY DRIER CONDITIONS AND A
SLOW WARMING TREND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS ~1008 MB SFC LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING OFF THE SE
VA/NE NC COAST...WITH STRONG UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER WEST CENTRAL
VA. AREA OF SHOWERS OVERSPREADING PIEDMONT EARLY THIS MORNING UNDER
THE COLD POOL ALOFT...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS PUSHING OFF THE SE VA/NE NC COAST ASSOCIATED W/ SFC COLD FRONT
AND WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY. LATEST RAP AND SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS CAPE
ON THE ORDER OF 300-500 J/KG AS OF 07Z...SHIFTING OFFSHORE PRIOR TO
12Z SO WILL MAINTAIN MENTION OF TSTMS ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THAT
TIMEFRAME. OTHERWISE...SHOULD BE TOO STABLE IN LOW LEVELS FOR ANY
ADDITIONAL TSTMS.
LATER TODAY...CLOSED UPPER LOW SLOWLY PUSHES ESE AND SHOULD BE
CENTERED OFFSHORE BY 15-18Z. WILL CARRY LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL
(60-80%) POPS OVER MUCH OF THE CWA THROUGH LATE MORNING AS DEEP
MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE FAVORABLE THROUGH THIS PERIOD (CHC POPS
ACRS SOUTH CENTRAL VA AND INTERIOR NE NC WHERE LESS MOISTURE
RESIDES). AS THE UPPER LOW PIVOTS OFFSHORE...DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION AND SHOULD END MUCH CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE
PRECIP THIS AFTN OVER SOUTH CENTRAL VA AND INTERIOR NE NC...WHILE
FAVORABLE LIFT AND MOISTURE PERSIST OVER NE PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY TO CAT POPS ON THE ERN SHORE THROUGH THE
AFTN...TAPERED TO 20% OR LOWER FROM SW SIDE OF METRO RICHMOND ON
SW. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO BREAK UP HOWEVER...MAY SEE SOME PEEKS
OF SUN ACRS SOUTH CENTRAL VA BY MID-LATE AFTN BUT OVERALL IT WILL
STAY BKN/OVC. FAVOR COOLER END OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS...GENLY NO
BETTER THAN THE LOWER 60S OVER MOST AREAS..RANGING FROM LWR TO MID
60S ACRS THE FAR SOUTH...TO THE UPPER 50S/AROUND 60 F OVER THE
NORTHERN ZONES FROM CAROLINE COUNTY ON WEST. OTHER FEATURE TO
NOTE WILL BE THE INCREASING NW WINDS BY AFTN AS THE SFC LOW
INTENSIFIES FAIRLY RAPIDLY OFF THE COAST. GUSTS TO 25-35 MPH WILL
BE POSSIBLE BY LATER AFTN/EVENING (ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST).
THE CLOSED LOW MOVES FARTHER NE TONIGHT. HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS
WILL BE CONFINED TO THE ERN SHORE THIS EVENING...GENLY ONLY 20%
POPS OR LOWER ELSEWHERE AFTER 00Z. DECREASING CLOUDS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED ACROSS INTERIOR VA/NC OVERNIGHT. REMAINING BREEZY TO
WINDY ESP NE SECTIONS. LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 40S ALONG AND WEST OF
I-95 TO THE LOW 50S NEAR THE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT IN BETWEEN SUB 1000 MB SFC
LOW OFF LONG ISLAND AND 1020 MB SFC HIGH OVER THE OH/TN VALLEY.
EXPECT BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH ACRS THE
ERN SHORE...25-30 MPH ELSEWHERE. A 20% POP WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR
THE ERN SHORE...DRY ELSEWHERE. STILL ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND A COLD POOL ALOFT FOR SKIES TO AVG OUT MOSTLY CLOUDY
N/E TO PARTLY SUNNY S/W (MAYBE MOSTLY SUNNY OVER THE FAR SW).
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S/AROUND 60 F ON THE MD ERN SHORE...TO THE
MID-UPPER 60S SW.
LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER NE AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA ON
FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR MAINLY SUNNY CONDS...DIMINISHING WINDS...AND
MILDER TEMPS. HIGH FRIDAY IN THE MID 60S NE TO AROUND 70 F SW.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS WELL TO THE NE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS
UPPER RIDGING EXPANDS EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL US. A WEAK TROUGH
CLIPS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY MOVES OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY. A HIGH AMPLITUDE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
ERN US MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING OFFSHORE BY
MIDWEEK. GIVEN THIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MEDIUM
RANGE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70 SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AND TREND UPWARD INTO THE LOW/MID BY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY (PERHAPS WARMER TUESDAY). LOWS SHOULD AVERAGE
FROM THE LOW/MID 40S NW...TO THE LOW/MID 50S FOR SE COASTAL
LOCATIONS.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LO PRES WILL DEVELOP OFF THE NRN MID ATLC CST THIS MORNG...THEN
WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NE OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND AND CANADIAN MARITIME CSTS TODAY THRU FRI. UPR LVL LO
WILL SWING OVR THE AREA THEN OFF THE CST TODAY INTO THIS
EVENG...BRINGING LWR CIGS (MVFR/POSSIBLY IFR) AND -RA TO THE TAF
SITES. NW OR N WINDS WILL PICK UP LATER THIS MORNG AND REMAIN
RATHER STRONG AND GUSTY INTO TNGT MOST TAF SITES. -RA WILL LAST
THE LONGEST OVR THE LWR MD/VA ERN SHR. BREEZY/WINDY OVR ERN HALF
OF THE REGION THRU THU...AS STRONG LO GRADUALLY MOVES AWAY TO THE
NE. COULD STILL BE SHOWERS OVR LWR MD (SBY) ALSO. HI PRES AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR FRI AND SAT.
&&
.MARINE...
LO PRES WILL FORM OFF THE NRN MID ATLC CST THIS MORNG...THEN WILL
CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND AND
CANADIAN MARITIME CSTS TODAY THRU FRI. NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
15 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO ARND 30 KT THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENG.
THEN...FM THIS EVENG THRU THU AFTN...GUSTS TO ARND 35 KT WILL BE
LIKELY OVR AT LEAST THE CHES BAY ZNS AND ON THE CSTL WTRS FM
FENWICK ISLAND TO CAPE CHARLES LGT. THUS...HAVE SCA RAMPING UP TO
A GALE WARNING IN THESE LOCATIONS FOR THIS EVENG INTO/THRU THU
AFTN. OTHRWISE...EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS OVR THE ENTIRE WTRS FM THIS
AFTN INTO EARLY FRI MORNG...AS STRNG LO PRES IS SLOW TO MOVE AWAY
TO THE NE. WITH THE FLOW BEING OFFSHORE FM THE NW...SEAS WOULD
TEND TO STAY CAPPED AT 5-7 FT AND TIDAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
N/NW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH SPEEDS
DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT AND SEAS SUBSIDING.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EDT
FRIDAY FOR ANZ633-635>638-656-658.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
ANZ630>632-634.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
ANZ650-652-654.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...JDM/LKB
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
350 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY WHILE SLOWLY TRACKING NORTHEAST OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. COOL AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY...FOLLOWED BY DRIER CONDITIONS AND A
SLOW WARMING TREND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS ~1008 MB SFC LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING OFF THE SE
VA/NE NC COAST...WITH STRONG UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER WEST CENTRAL
VA. AREA OF SHOWERS OVERSPREADING PIEDMONT EARLY THIS MORNING UNDER
THE COLD POOL ALOFT...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS PUSHING OFF THE SE VA/NE NC COAST ASSOCIATED W/ SFC COLD FRONT
AND WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY. LATEST RAP AND SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS CAPE
ON THE ORDER OF 300-500 J/KG AS OF 07Z...SHIFTING OFFSHORE PRIOR TO
12Z SO WILL MAINTAIN MENTION OF TSTMS ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THAT
TIMEFRAME. OTHERWISE...SHOULD BE TOO STABLE IN LOW LEVELS FOR ANY
ADDITIONAL TSTMS.
LATER TODAY...CLOSED UPPER LOW SLOWLY PUSHES ESE AND SHOULD BE
CENTERED OFFSHORE BY 15-18Z. WILL CARRY LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL
(60-80%) POPS OVER MUCH OF THE CWA THROUGH LATE MORNING AS DEEP
MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE FAVORABLE THROUGH THIS PERIOD (CHC POPS
ACRS SOUTH CENTRAL VA AND INTERIOR NE NC WHERE LESS MOISTURE
RESIDES). AS THE UPPER LOW PIVOTS OFFSHORE...DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION AND SHOULD END MUCH CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE
PRECIP THIS AFTN OVER SOUTH CENTRAL VA AND INTERIOR NE NC...WHILE
FAVORABLE LIFT AND MOISTURE PERSIST OVER NE PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY TO CAT POPS ON THE ERN SHORE THROUGH THE
AFTN...TAPERED TO 20% OR LOWER FROM SW SIDE OF METRO RICHMOND ON
SW. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO BREAK UP HOWEVER...MAY SEE SOME PEEKS
OF SUN ACRS SOUTH CENTRAL VA BY MID-LATE AFTN BUT OVERALL IT WILL
STAY BKN/OVC. FAVOR COOLER END OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS...GENLY NO
BETTER THAN THE LOWER 60S OVER MOST AREAS..RANGING FROM LWR TO MID
60S ACRS THE FAR SOUTH...TO THE UPPER 50S/AROUND 60 F OVER THE
NORTHERN ZONES FROM CAROLINE COUNTY ON WEST. OTHER FEATURE TO
NOTE WILL BE THE INCREASING NW WINDS BY AFTN AS THE SFC LOW
INTENSIFIES FAIRLY RAPIDLY OFF THE COAST. GUSTS TO 25-35 MPH WILL
BE POSSIBLE BY LATER AFTN/EVENING (ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST).
THE CLOSED LOW MOVES FARTHER NE TONIGHT. HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS
WILL BE CONFINED TO THE ERN SHORE THIS EVENING...GENLY ONLY 20%
POPS OR LOWER ELSEWHERE AFTER 00Z. DECREASING CLOUDS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED ACROSS INTERIOR VA/NC OVERNIGHT. REMAINING BREEZY TO
WINDY ESP NE SECTIONS. LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 40S ALONG AND WEST OF
I-95 TO THE LOW 50S NEAR THE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT IN BETWEEN SUB 1000 MB SFC
LOW OFF LONG ISLAND AND 1020 MB SFC HIGH OVER THE OH/TN VALLEY.
EXPECT BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH ACRS THE
ERN SHORE...25-30 MPH ELSEWHERE. A 20% POP WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR
THE ERN SHORE...DRY ELSEWHERE. STILL ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND A COLD POOL ALOFT FOR SKIES TO AVG OUT MOSTLY CLOUDY
N/E TO PARTLY SUNNY S/W (MAYBE MOSTLY SUNNY OVER THE FAR SW).
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S/AROUND 60 F ON THE MD ERN SHORE...TO THE
MID-UPPER 60S SW.
LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER NE AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA ON
FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR MAINLY SUNNY CONDS...DIMINISHING WINDS...AND
MILDER TEMPS. HIGH FRIDAY IN THE MID 60S NE TO AROUND 70 F SW.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS WELL TO THE NE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS
UPPER RIDGING EXPANDS EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL US. A WEAK TROUGH
CLIPS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY MOVES OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY. A HIGH AMPLITUDE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
ERN US MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING OFFSHORE BY
MIDWEEK. GIVEN THIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MEDIUM
RANGE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70 SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AND TREND UPWARD INTO THE LOW/MID BY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY (PERHAPS WARMER TUESDAY). LOWS SHOULD AVERAGE
FROM THE LOW/MID 40S NW...TO THE LOW/MID 50S FOR SE COASTAL
LOCATIONS.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LO PRES WILL DEVELOP OFF THE NRN MID ATLC CST THIS MORNG...THEN
WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NE OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND AND CANADIAN MARITIMES CSTS TODAY THRU FRI. UPR LVL LO
WILL SWING OVR THE AREA THEN OFF THE CST TODAY INTO THIS
EVENG...BRINGING LWR CIGS (MVFR/POSSIBLY IFR) AND -RA TO THE TAF
SITES. NW OR N WINDS WILL PICK UP LATER THIS MORNG AND REMAIN
RATHER STRONG AND GUSTY INTO TNGT MOST TAF SITES. -RA WILL LAST
THE LONGEST OVR THE LWR MD/VA ERN SHR. BREEZY/WINDY OVR ERN HALF
OF THE REGION THRU THU...AS STRONG LO GRADUALLY MOVES AWAY TO THE
NE. COULD STILL BE SHOWERS OVR LWR MD (SBY) ALSO. HI PRES AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR FRI AND SAT.
&&
.MARINE...
AS A COLD FRONT AND SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH THE MARINE
AREA...WINDS HAVE INCREASED TEMPORARILY. MWS ISSUED FOR BRIEF
GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS IN THE CHESAPEAKE AND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN
VIRGINIA RIVERS. THESE WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE BEFORE INCREASING ONCE
AGAIN DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT...
WITH LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFYING OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PRODUCE SCA CONDITIONS
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR MOST OF THE AREA AND
CONTINUING INTO AT LEAST THURSDAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST WIND IS
GENERALLY 20-25KT...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT FOR MOST OF THE
MARINE AREA. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR LOW-END GALE CONDITIONS LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING PRIMARILY SUPPORTED BY
THE 21/12Z NAM. AT THIS TIME THE CURRENT SCA WAS MAINTAINED GIVEN
THE POTENTIAL FOR ONLY MARGINAL GALE CONDITIONS...WITH AN ONSET
GENERALLY AT OR BEYOND 24HR FROM 4PM TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO STALL OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH SCA
CONDITIONS LIKELY CONTINUING...ESPECIALLY FOR THE OCEAN. WITH THE
FLOW BEING OFFSHORE FROM THE NW...SEAS WOULD TEND TO STAY CAPPED
AT 5-7 FT AND TIDAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. N/NW FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING TO
10-15KT AND SEAS SUBSIDING.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM EDT
THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>638-650-652-654-656-658.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...JDM/LKB
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...AJZ/LSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
125 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM
THE SRN PLAINS THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO NW ONTARIO BETWEEN
TROUGHS OVER THE NW CONUS AND THE ERN GREAT LAKES. AT THE SFC...A
RIDGE EXTENDED FROM JAMES BAY THROUGH NRN ONTARIO TO LAKE SUPERIOR
RESULTING IN NE WINDS INTO UPPER MI. DAYTIME HEATING HAS FINALLY
HELPED DISSIPATE MOST OF THE REMAINING CLOUDS OVER WRN UPPER MI.
HOWEVER...SOME LAKE MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE NEAR THE SHORE
SUPPORTED SOME LINGERING CLOUDS FROM BIG BAY TO MUNISING.
TONIGHT...UNDER CLEAR SKIES...FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH PWAT VALUES DROPPING TO NEAR 0.15
INCH(25 PCT OF NORMAL) WHICH SHOULD DROP MIN TEMPS TOWARD THE LOWER
END OF GUIDANCE. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 20 TO 25 RANGE INLAND AND FROM
THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S CLOSER TO THE GREAT LAKES. WITH THE HIGH
SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST LATE...TEMPS MAY SLOWLY CLIMB LATE OVER THE
FAR WEST AS SRLY WINDS(BNDRY LAYER 15-20 KT) PRODUCE SOME MIXING.
SOME GROUND FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE MAINLY NEAR RIVER VALLEYS/LAKES AND
ESPECIALLY OVER THE S WHERE THE LIGHT SRLY FLOW OFF LAKE MI BRINGS IN
SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
WED...EVEN WITH A STRONG INVERSION...ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND 925 MB
TEMPS NEAR 6C...SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S EAST AND THE LOWER
50S WEST.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014
AT 00Z THURSDAY THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE STUCK UNDER A RIDGE
IN BETWEEN THE STRONG CUT OFF LOW SWINGING N OFF THE ATLANTIC
COAST...AND A TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE N PLAINS AND MANITOBA.
THE CANADIAN/N PLAINS TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS ONTARIO AND LAKE
SUPERIOR ON THURSDAY. JUST HOW THE TROUGH INTERACTS WITH THE CUT OFF
LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND STATES IS STILL IN QUESTION. THE ECMWF IS
QUICKER TO SCOOT THE TROUGH S OF THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY
MORNING...WHILE THE GFS STAYS WITH MORE OF A STEADY ELONGATED TROUGH
SLIDING W-E. THEY ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE IDEA OF RAIN AVERAGING
0.2IN OVER THE W HALF OF UPPER MI LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BEFORE DRYING UP AND EXITING THE AREA.
AFTER ZONAL FLOW FRIDAY...NW FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE CWA FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE 21/00Z ECMWF WAS A BIT FARTHER S AND QUICKER WITH THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE SWINGING IN FROM MANITOBA AND W ONTARIO...INDICATING
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS GLANCING N AREAS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE 12Z GFS AND
ECMWF RUNS ARE A BIT MORE IN LINE. BRISK NW FLOW WILL TAKE HOLD
SATURDAY /40-45KT 850MB LLJ/...WITH 850MB TEMPS FALLING FROM AROUND
6-8C AT DAYBREAK TO 0-5C BY THE END OF THE DAY /COOLEST OFF THE
ECMWF/.
THE NEXT SFC RIDGE WILL BE OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY...IN BETWEEN THE
EXITING LOW OVER HUDSON BAY AND QUEBEC...AND A NEARING LOW
DEVELOPING ACROSS S CENTRAL CANADA AND THE N PLAINS. AT THIS POINT
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHING ACROSS
WI/UPPER MI/LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE 21/00Z ECMWF
EJECTS THE SYSTEM TO THE NE QUICKLY MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY
MORNING...WHILE THE 21/06Z GFS RIDES AN ADDITIONAL LOW UP THE
TROUGH WHICH KEEPS LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY NIGHT OF NEXT WEEK. WHETHER OR NOT THE PROGRESSIVE BUT
DRAMATIC ECMWF SOLUTION PANS OUT IS STILL UNCERTAIN...AS IT WOULD
STRAND A CUT OFF LOW ACROSS THE S PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT THOUGH AT
LEAST MID WEEK. WILL CONTINUE WITH A BLENDED SOLUTION FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...UNTIL WE GET A BETTER VISION OF WHAT MAY HAPPEN
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE 12Z RUN OF THE ECMWF HAS ABANDONED THE CUT OFF
LOW SOLUTION OVER THE S PLAINS...AND LOOKS A BIT MORE LIKE THE
GFS...BUT A LOT WEAKER WITH LESS PRECIP.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014
WITH HI PRES DOMINATING TODAY...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREDOMINATE
AT ALL 3 TAF SITES. THE EXCEPTION WL BE AT SAW EARLY THIS MRNG...
WHEN LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPS FALLING THRU CROSSOVER DEWPT YDAY AFTN WL
ALLOW SOME FOG TO FORM. A SOMEWHAT STRONGER AND DOWNSLOPE S WIND AT
IWD AND CMX WL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AT THOSE SPOTS. ALTHOUGH
THERE WL BE AN INCRS IN MID CLDS THIS EVNG...AND EVEN THE CHANCE FOR
SOME -SHRA AT IWD...IN ADVANCE OF AN APRCHG LO PRES TROF IN MN...
LINGERING NEAR SFC DRY AIR WL ENSURE VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THRU THE
EVNG EVEN IF SOME -SHRA IMPACT IWD. AN INCRSG S WIND ALOFT
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE -SHRA CHANCES MAY BRING SOME MARGINAL LLWS TO
IWD LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS
LESS THAN 20 KTS OVER LK SUPERIOR FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. PASSAGE
OF A TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WILL LEAD TO INCREASING WNW WINDS TO 25 KTS
ON SATURDAY...STRONGEST OVER EAST HALF OF LK SUPERIOR.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
429 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A NICE CIRCULATION
CURRENTLY MOVING NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN FROM
NORTHERN MONTANA. COUPLING THIS IMAGE WITH RAP ANALYZED 500H
INDICATES THE PRESENCE OF A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
THIS FEATURE HAS PRODUCED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT
ACROSS COLORADO...WESTERN NEBRASKA...WYOMING...MONTANA...AND
EXTREME WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE IN A
GENERAL ENE DIRECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WILL BRING RAINFALL
TO MOST OF THE CWA.
THIS MORNING...HI-RES GUIDANCE HAD BEEN INDICATING AN AREA OF
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY THIS MORNING
AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH. THE HOPWRF STILL INDICATES THIS
POTENTIAL...AS DO THE NMM AND ARW. THE HRRR HOWEVER...DROPPED THIS
IDEA FROM ITS EARLIER RUNS AND MAY BE ON TO SOMETHING GIVEN THE
LATEST RADAR TRENDS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. STILL...KEPT A LOW POP
MENTION FROM WESTERN MN AND NORTH AND WEST OF ST. CLOUD THROUGH
THE MORNING.
THE MAIN PRECIPITATION BAND WILL COME TOGETHER OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS ACROSS THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS AS A CONTINUATION OF THE ACTIVITY
SEEN OVERNIGHT IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS OF CO/WY/NE. AS WE
HEAD INTO THE AFTERNOON...UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE THANKS TO AN
ENHANCED FLOW AT JET LEVEL TO THE NORTHWEST WILL BE SUPERIMPOSED
WITH THE VORT MAX AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IN THE LOW LEVELS
ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. SATURATION WILL NOT BE A PROBLEM...BUT
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE
EXPANDING PRECIP BAND COULD LIMIT QPF TO THE NORTH.
HI-RES MODELS AGREE THAT THE NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTED PRECIP BAND
WILL BE PROGRESSING EAST ACROSS WESTERN MN THIS EVENING. SIMULATED
REFLECTIVITY FROM THESE MODELS SUGGEST LIMITED RETURNS NORTH OF
ABOUT MANKATO. THIS LINES UP WELL WITH THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE
NEGATIVE BEST LI`S WHICH WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS SOUTH OF ABOUT
MANKATO TONIGHT. HENCE...ISOLATED THUNDER REMAINS IN THE FORECAST
FOR THIS AREA...WHILE MORE STRATIFORM SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO THE
NORTH. IN GENERAL...A RANGE OF 0.15-0.35" IS NOW IN THE FORECAST
WITH THE MAXIMA BEING IN FAR SOUTHERN MN WHERE LIMITED INSTABILITY
MAY ENHANCE RAINFALL RATES.
GLOBAL MODELS AND HI-RES MODELS ALIKE AGREED THAT THE PRECIP BAND
LOOKS TO MOVE OUT A BIT QUICKER ON THURSDAY. SO...DROPPED THE POPS
FASTER FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY TOMORROW THROUGH MID-MORNING. NOW
EXPECTING THE ENTIRE FA TO BE DRY BY LATE MORNING AND BEYOND.
OTHERWISE...TODAY WILL SEE STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SYSTEM. INCREASED WINDS A FEW KNOTS AND HENCE THE
INCREASED HIGHS FOR TODAY SAW A SLIGHT INCREASE AS WELL.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
SHARP UPR LVL TROF WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE E THU EVE WHILE AN UPR
TROF BUILDS OVER THE NRN PLAINS. THE SFC PRES PATTERN WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY BAGGY...GENERALLY WITH LITTLE DEFINITION TO IT. THAT
SAID...A PRONOUNCED S-SW FLOW WILL DEVELOP AT THE SFC STARTING
FRI AND LAST INTO THE WEEKEND. A WEAK SFC CDFNT FRONT...BUT MORE
LIKELY A SFC TROF...WILL SWING THRU THE REGION FRI BUT BE OF
LITTLE CONSEQUENCE ASIDE FROM A SMALL INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
FOLLOWING THE CLEARING BEHIND THE DEPARTING AFOREMENTIONED TROF.
THE DEPARTURE OF THIS TROF WILL SPELL LARGE-SCALE RIDGING OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS...SPREADING NWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS AND UPR MISS
RIVER VALLEY. THE INCRS IN H5 HEIGHTS WILL ALLOW FOR NOTICEABLE
WARMING FOR THE WEEKEND...INCLUDING HIGHS REACHING AND POSSIBLY
ECLIPSING THE 70-DEGREE MARK. THIS WARM-UP LOOKS TO LAST FOR JUST
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AS THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN AND SHIFT EWD LATE
SUN INTO MON IN ADVANCE OF A MORE ORGANIZED STORM SYSTEM FOR THE
START OF NEXT WEEK. THOUGH THERE IS DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE
FORMATION OF A STORM SYSTEM IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES MONDAY...
SHIFTING NEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY TUE...THERE IS SOME MODEL
DISAGREEMENT AS TO THE PLACEMENT AND SPEED OF THE SYSTEM. HAVE
INCLUDED POPS BUT NO HIGHER THAN 30-40 PERCENT ATTM. THERE IS ALSO
GROWING CONFIDENCE THAT FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A COOLING OF
TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN TO SEASONABLE LEVELS FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION
OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1053 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014
LITTLE HAS CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS SET OF TAFS. ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WILL REACH INTO WEST CENTRAL MN BEFORE DAYBREAK AND
PROGRESS EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL MN DURING THE MORNING.
VCSH REMAINS IN THE KRWF...KAXN AND KSTC TAFS DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS ALSO POSSIBLE. SHOWER CHANCES
INCREASE FOR KAXN AND KRWF BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONT. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR AS THE BAND OF THE
SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH. THE SHOWERS AND LOWER CEILINGS WILL REACH
INTO EASTERN MN DURING THE EVENING AND PASS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WI
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BE STRONGEST
ACROSS WESTERN MN WITH 15G22KTS COMMON. SPEEDS FROM 5 TO 10 KNOTS
FOR THE EASTERN SITES. BREEZY SE WINDS AT ALL TAF SITES ON
WEDNESDAY WITH 15-20 KNOTS GUSTING 20-25 KNOTS.
KMSP...VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE
STILL EXPECTED TO PASS NORTH OF THE AIRFIELD LATE IN THE MORNING.
SHOWERS CHANCES INCREASING WEDNESDAY EVENING ALONG WITH MVFR
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR WITH MVFR/-SHRA EARLY. WINDS SSE AT 10G20KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS SSW AT 5-10KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS NW AT 5-10KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...RAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1133 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
ISOLD SHOWERS AND TSTMS MOVG NORTHEAST OVER THE EAST CENTRAL
PLAINS AND TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEST AND CENTRAL.
THIS ACTIVITY LOOKS TO PERSIST AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS TRACKS
OVER NEW MEXICO THROUGH 12Z. OTHERWISE...HIGHER TERRAIN WILL BE
OBSCD IN MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN BR UNTIL AROUND 16Z FROM THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN
PLAINS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS PLENTIFUL AND SFC LEE TROUGH
KEEPS LOW LEVEL WINDS GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTH.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...751 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014...
.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO LESSEN POPS ACROSS THE WEST...AND TWEAK THEM
ACROSS THE EAST TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS. NOW THAT WE HAVE LOSS
AFTERNOON HEATING...MUCH OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE WEST
HAS DIMINISHED. MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE NO MORE THAN A FEW
SPRINKLES THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. THE HRRR EVEN SUGGESTS
THAT THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY MAY SEE SOME SPRINKLES AROUND
MIDNIGHT AS A WEAK TROUGH AXIS SWINGS ACROSS. MEANWHILE...THE
LARGER AREA OF SHRA/TSTMS ACROSS THE EAST HAS MOSTLY
DIMINISHED...BUT A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS...AND THE OCCASIONAL
RUMBLE OF THUNDER...HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS. THE HRRR
SUGGESTS MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT...BUT MAY
PERSIST LONGER AS THE NOSE OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET POKES INTO THE
EAST. UPDATES ALREADY OUT.
34
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...318 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL CROSS NEW
MEXICO EARLY WEDNESDAY AND FORCE THE RECENT MOIST AND RELATIVELY
COOL PATTERN OUT OF THE AREA. AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG DOME OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BRINGING
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...DRY CONDITIONS...AND LIGHT WINDS.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE COOL BUT STILL ABOVE LATE
OCTOBER NORMALS. THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN BY SUNDAY...USHERING IN
BREEZY AND COOLER CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY. THE NEXT POTENTIAL
STORM SYSTEM WILL ATTEMPT TO SLIDE INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
MAIN CHANGES TO FORECAST PACKAGE INCLUDED TAPERING BACK SHOWER AND
STORM CHANCES OVER CENTRAL/WESTERN NM TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ADDED
SOME FOG IN MORENO VALLEY TONIGHT AND INTO THE PECOS VALLEY TMRW
NIGHT. ALSO RAISED TEMPS WELL ABOVE CONSENSUS GUIDANCE OVER THE
PLAINS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY TO COME IN LINE BETTER WITH SIGNIFICANTLY
WARMER TEMPS FROM WEST TEXAS OFFICES.
THE 2030Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED UPPER TROUGH AXIS
RACING EAST INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...WITH A SHARP PUNCH OF DRY
AIR IN ITS WAKE. THE SURFACE FRONT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM
IS LAGGING OVER CENTRAL NV AND NORTHWEST UT. THE ENTIRE UPPER TROUGH
FEATURE IS SHOWN BY MODELS TO ESSENTIALLY SHEAR APART AND LIFT WELL
NORTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
LEAVE NM IN GENERALLY WEAK QUASI-ZONAL FLOW THROUGH THURSDAY. ALL IN
ALL THIS HAS TRENDED FASTER SO HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT AND LOWERED POP
VALUES MOST AREAS WEST OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN. THE EAST WILL LIKELY
REMAIN SOCKED IN LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THROUGH THE 1ST PART OF
WEDNESDAY.
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG 591DM H5 HIGH CENTER WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
DESERT SW BY LATE THURSDAY...AND BRING SOME REALLY SPECTACULAR
WEATHER TO OUR REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. A PARTIAL SOLAR ECLIPSE
VISIBLE WITHIN NM LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD HAVE VERY NICE
VIEWING CONDITIONS. TRENDED TEMPS UP A COUPLE DEGREES THURSDAY...AND
ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ACROSS THE EAST TO ACCOUNT FOR MUCH
WARMER READINGS FROM THE WEST TX OFFICES. VERY LIGHT WINDS ALOFT...
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S...MINIMAL SURFACE LEE TROUGHING OVER
THE PLAINS...AND LATE OCTOBER SUN WOULD LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR TEMPS
ABOVE RECORDS...BUT WILL GET ANOTHER CHANCE TO REVISIT LATER.
LEE TROUGHING WILL BE NOTABLE SATURDAY SO THAT COULD ACTUALLY BE THE
WARMEST DAY FOR THE EAST. TIMING ON THE RIDGE BREAK DOWN HAS BECOME
MORE DISJOINTED BETWEEN MODELS...SO CONFIDENCE DECREASES ON THE
PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SUNDAY IS PROGGED TO BE THE BREEZIEST
FOR THE EAST WITH STRONGER LEE TROUGHING...WHILE THE WEST COOLS OFF.
BEYOND THE WEEKEND...MODELS ARE FLIP/FLOPPING ON A POTENTIAL WINTER
STORM SYSTEM BY MID WEEK.
GUYER
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY MOIST ACROSS SE AND S CENTRAL SECTIONS OF
FCST AREA...NOT AS MOIST ELSEWHERE BUT STILL MORE SO THAN NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. MOST NUMEROUS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
REST OF AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT SHOULD BE ACROSS SE AND E CENTRAL
SECTIONS. DRIER WED...THOUGH STILL SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS
A POSSIBILITY ACROSS MAINLY THE SE PLAINS AND SACRAMENTO MTNS
VICINITY. THEREAFTER A WARMING AND FURTHER DRYING TREND BEGINNING AS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. UPPER LOW EARLIER
NEAR THE BOOTHEEL IS SLOWLY OPENING UP INTO A WAVE AND SHOULD SLOWLY
EASE ACROSS S CENTRAL INTO SE NM BETWEEN TONIGHT AND MID MORN WED.
BROADER BUT FAIRLY WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL HELP USHER THAT SYSTEM
EAST OF THE STATE LATER WED...AIDING TRANSITION TO DRIER CONDITIONS
AND SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS. STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE COMING
INTO THE STATE WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI. AS A RESULT MINIMUM HUMIDITY
WILL TREND DOWN AS HIGH TEMPERATURES TREND UP TO ABOVE NORMAL THU
AND FRI. THIS PATTERN WILL ALSO CREATE POOR VENTILATION ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK...ESPECIALLY IN VALLEYS WHERE
TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS WILL BE STUBBORN OR SLOW TO BREAK. AREAS EAST
OF CENTRAL MTN CHAIN AND NEAR TO SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 MAY STILL
SEE FAIR TO GOOD RATES WED AND THU...LOWERING A BIT FRI. RATES NO
BETTER AND GENERALLY LOWER ELSEWHERE.
A VERY SHARP INCREASE IN TRANSPORT WINDS...MIXING HEIGHTS AND THUS
VENT RATES OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AS WINDS ALOFT
INCREASE NOTICEABLY AND A DEEPENING LEE SIDE TROUGH TAKES SHAPE.
WHILE NEAR SFC WINDS REACH CRITICAL LEVELS IN SOME SPOTS...MAINLY
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NE HIGHLANDS AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF WEST
CENTRAL NM. AT THIS TIME STILL LOOKS LIKE MIN RH LOOKS TO STAY ABOVE
CRITICAL THRESHOLD...BUT THIS WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY WITH NEWER
FCST MODEL RUNS AS SUNDAY MAY END UP WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR BETWEEN
1 AND 3 HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.
43
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
310 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY AND COOL WEATHER TO CENTRAL PA
ALONG WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW
MOVES NORTH THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
MIGRATE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS TO THE EAST COAST BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN FAIR WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A SLOW MOVING CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE NEAR-TO-SHORT RANGE PERIOD. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS A MYRIAD OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES SWIRLING AROUND THE
MAIN UPPER LOW CIRCULATION WHICH APPEARS TO BE OVER VA AT 06Z. THE
MODELS SHOW THIS FEATURE TRACKING OFFSHORE OF THE VA COAST AND
DELMARVA BY 18Z THEN TURNING NWD THIS EVENING BEFORE WRAPPING NWWD
BACK TOWARD LONG ISLAND BY 23/12Z. THE SFC LOW SHOULD TAKE A
SIMILAR TRACK WHICH IS LKLY BEST REPRESENTED BY EITHER THE 00Z
GEFS/21Z SREF OR BLEND OF THE DETERMINISTIC GFS/ECMWF. THE 00Z NAM
IS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE THIS CLUSTER NEAR CAPE COD.
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE FAR SERN
ZONES THIS MORNING WHERE AN AXIS OF MOD RAFL WITH OCNL TS/LTG HAS
BEEN PIVOTING NWWD TWD THE RT 30 CORRIDOR. THIS FAIRLY ORGANIZED
BAND APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH VORT MAX LIFTING NWD ACROSS THE
NRN DELMARVA...AND MAY PRODUCE SOME 0.50"+ AMTS OVER EXTREME SERN
YORK AND LANCASTER COS. WILL USE THE HRRR AND BLEND OF MODEL QPFS
AS A GUIDE FOR POPS FOR LATER TODAY...WHICH STILL FAVORS THE SERN
1/3 OF THE CWA. ELSEWHERE...LIGHT RAIN/DZ WILL BE INTERMITTENT
WITH POP GRADIENT GENERALLY DECREASING FROM SE TO NW. IT WILL BE
COOL AND RAW DAY WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND INCREASING/GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE WILL MOVE LITTLE ON DAY 2 OFF THE NORTHEAST
U.S. COAST AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE UPPER MIDWEST WEAKENS
AND SPLITS THROUGH THE MS VLY. THE MODELS SHOW THE SRN BRANCH WAVE
APPROACHING THE APPALACHIANS BY 12Z FRI WITH THE GFS BEING FLATTER
AND MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE EC. THE MAIN WRAP-AROUND PCPN AREA
SHOULD SHIFT INTO NERN PA ON BACKSIDE OF THE SLOWLY DEPARTING
COASTAL STORM SYSTEM. THURS WILL BE ANOTHER RAW DAY WITH BRISK
NORTHERLY WINDS AND HIGHS ABOUT 5F BELOW LATE OCTOBER NORMALS.
POPS SHOULD CONTINUE TO TREND LOWER INTO TOMORROW NIGHT WITH
PORTIONS OF SRN/SWRN PA STARTING TO SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE PERIOD WILL START WITH THE NEW ENGLAND COASTAL STORM BOTTOMING
OUT OFF THE NJ COAST ON THU AND THEN LIFTING SLOWLY NEWD ALONG
THE NORTHEAST COAST TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH SAT.
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW NICE AGREEMENT AS WELL AS SOLID
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY...SO MINIMAL CHANGES NEEDED TO OVERALL
EXTENDED FORECAST.
THIS STACKED LOW WILL KEEP BREEZY CONDITIONS AND THE CHANCE OF
CHILLY WRAP-AROUND RAINS IN THE FCST POSSIBLY INTO
FRI...DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE STORM LIFTS OUT AND IF A SHORTWAVE
WRAPPING AROUND IT EDGES BACK INTO NE PA ON FRI. THE IMPETUS TO
KICK STORM NE LIES UPSTREAM WITH STRONG SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO SPLIT OVER THE
CENTRAL U.S. WITH NRN STREAM ENERGY PROJECTED TO DIG SEWD THROUGH
THE APPALACHIANS AND MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST BY SAT NGT.
PROGRESSIVE RIDGE SLIDES THROUGH SUN AND MON...BRINGING LIGHTER
WINDS AND GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER TO START THE WEEK. MODELS ALSO
BRING A PUSH OF WARMER TEMPS INTO THE REGION AS FLOW TURNS SW
AHEAD OF A WAVE SLIDING THROUGH NATIONS MIDSECTION. LOW LIFTS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES /TRACKING TO OUR NW/ MON-TUE WITH MILDER
TEMPS IN CENTRAL PA. PUSH BEHIND THE WAVE WILL NUDGE A COOL FRONT
WITH LIMITED SUPPORT THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH GENERAL COOLING TREND
FOR MID-LATE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FANTASTIC SCENE ON RADAR OVER THE SE WHERE ELEMENTS MOVING N-S
UNDERNEATH THE BULK OF THE RETURNS WHICH ARE SLIDING S-N IN FROM
MD/DE. THE UPPER LOW IS MOVING SLOWLY EAST AND THE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN WITH CEILINGS EXPECTED TO
DETERIORATE IN THE SE AND AT BFD. JST ALREADY IN THE SOUP.
HOWEVER...THE CURRENTLY HIGHER CIGS AT UNV/AOO MAY STAY THERE FOR
MOST OF THE NIGHT. WILL HOLD MORE PESSIMISTIC 1KFT CIG AT IPT AS
THICKER MSTR EVIDENT UPSTREAM IN NE PA/ERN NY. LIGHTNING IS VERY
CLOSE TO IPT AND HAVE INSERTED VCTS IN THE FIRST TWO HRS OF THE
FCST.
SFC LOW IS GOING TO MOVE SLIGHTLY TO THE NE AND UPPER LOW SHOULD
SLIDE EAST A BIT AS THE TAF PERIOD PROGRESSES. THUS...THE THE
CIRCULATION AROUND THE STORM WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN SHOWERS BACK
INTO SERN PA AND ALSO INTO THE NERN MTNS/POCONOS. SOME DRYING IS
POSSIBLE WED AFTN...BUT WITH THE UPPER LOW STILL OVERHEAD...
INSTABILITY SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WHERE THE CLOUDS CAN BREAK A
BIT.
OUTLOOK...
THU-FRI...LOW CIGS POSS NRN MTNS...MAINLY AT NIGHT/EARLY AM. SHRA
POSS ERN THIRD.
SAT-SUN...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...RXR/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...DANGELO/LA CORTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
352 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
AT 3 AM...A 1030 MB SURFACE HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER ONTARIO. THIS
HAS PRODUCED LIGHT WINDS ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN AND CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS HAS ALLOWED DENSE
VALLEY FOG TO DEVELOP IN THE WISCONSIN AND KICKAPOO RIVER VALLEYS.
MEANWHILE THE RAP SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE WINDS
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING. HOWEVER WE MAY HAVE JUST ENOUGH TIME TO BUILD A SHALLOW
NOCTURNAL INVERSION THAT MAY ALLOW SOME STRATUS AND SOME PATCHY
VALLEY FOG TO DEVELOP IN THE MISSISSIPPI CHANNEL AND ITS
TRIBUTARIES.
FOR TONIGHT...THE 22.00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THIS RESULTS...IN
MODERATE TO STRONG 900 TO 800 MB FRONTOGENESIS TO DEVELOP ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR AND THERE WILL MODERATE
850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT. OVERALL LIKE THE TIMING OF NMM AND
ARW...SO TRENDED THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TOWARD THEM FOR
TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
ON THURSDAY...THE 22.00Z MODELS ARE VERY SIMILAR WITH THE FASTER
MOVEMENT OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION. THIS RESULT
IN A RAPID DECREASE IN THE 900 TO 800 MB FRONTOGENESIS AND THE
850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT MOVING EAST OF THE AREA BY THE
AFTERNOON. THIS RESULTS IN A QUICK DECREASE IN THE PRECIPITATION
FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS
SEEMS TO BE HANDLED REALLY WELL IN THE ARW AND NMM...SO TRENDED
PRECIPITATION TIMING AND PLACEMENT CLOSER TO THEM. ALSO MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW A RAPID DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER ALONG AND WEST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS PROVIDES A BETTER
OPPORTUNITY THAT WE COULD POTENTIALLY SEE THE PARTIAL SOLAR
ECLIPSE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.
ON FRIDAY...ALL OF THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA. THE NAM
SOUNDINGS HAVE A MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILE AND STRONGER 850 MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT THAN THE GFS...GEM...AND ECMWF. AS A RESULT...
IT GENERATES SHOWERS AND THE OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE DRY. DUE TO
THIS...OPTED TO KEEP THE PERIOD DRY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB 2
TO 4C WARMER THAN THURSDAY. MIXING 875 MB TEMPERATURES TO THE
SURFACE RESULTS IN TEMPERATURES MUCH CLOSER TO THE 22.03Z SREF
THAN THE SUPER BLEND...SO TRENDED THEM MORE TOWARD THE LATTER.
FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG 150 KNOT
200 MB JET ROUNDING THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE. THE 21.12Z NAEFS STANDARDIZED ANOMALY SHOWED THAT A JET
THIS STRONG HAD A RETURN FREQUENCY OF ONCE IN EVERY 5 YEARS. THIS
RESULTS IN A RETROGRESSION OF THIS RIDGE WHICH IN TURN ALLOWS
COOLER 850 MB TEMPERATURES TO MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION. THERE IS
A 6 TO 8C DROP ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN AND 4 TO 6C ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA. DUE TO THIS...LOWERED THE
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ANYWHERE FROM 2 TO 6 DEGREES.
ON SUNDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS THE
AREA AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST INTO THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES. 850 MB TEMPERATURES RISE 6 TO 8C INTO THE 10C TO 14C
RANGE. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 1.8 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL. THE SUPER BLEND LOOKS TOO COLD...SO RAISED THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO THE BIAS CORRECTED GFS AND ECMWF.
FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THE MODELS ARE DIFFERING ON THE
TRACK OF A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION. THE GFS IS MUCH FURTHER THAN EITHER THE ECMWF OR GEM. DUE
TO THIS...STAYED CLOSED TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS FOR TEMPERATURES
AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014
SOME CONCERN FOR VALLEY FOG AT KLSE LATE TONIGHT. BOTH THE 22.00Z
NAM AND 22.03Z RAP SHOW SATURATION OCCURRING AT THE SURFACE BUT
SUGGEST THE WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT
RANGE. THE FLAG HERE AT THE OFFICE IS MOVING A LITTLE BIT BUT NOT
AS MUCH AS WOULD BE ANTICIPATED BASED ON THE MODEL WINDS AND A BIT
OF A HAZE LAYER APPEARS TO BE SHOWING UP OVER THE CITY. AS THE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN OVERNIGHT...WOULD
EXPECT THE WINDS ALOFT TO CONTINUE SLOWLY INCREASING WHICH SHOULD
CREATE ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP THE FOG FROM FORMING.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT THAT HIGH AND WILL INCLUDE A
BCFG TO INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME FOG. THE GRADIENT SHOULD
PRODUCE DECENT SUSTAINED SOUTH WINDS WEDNESDAY AND WITH GOOD
MIXING...GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KNOTS SHOULD OCCUR AT KRST. AS
THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES WEDNESDAY EVENING...SHOULD START TO SEE
ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE ARRIVE FOR A VFR CEILING TO FORM AT
KRST. THE RAIN WITH THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...04
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
THE LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A LARGE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM STRETCHING FROM QUEBEC TO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES TO THE GULF COAST. OUTSIDE OF A SMALL AREA OF BROKEN STRATUS
AROUND CHICAGO...CLEAR SKIES EXIST ACROSS THE REGION THANKS TO
STRONG SUBSIDENCE BENEATH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
IS MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND THE NORTHWEST GREAT PLAINS WHERE A
FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE OCCURRING. AS THIS STORM SYSTEM MOVES
EAST...PRECIP CHANCES AND TIMING ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.
TODAY...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES...BUT VERY DRY AIR WILL EXIST THROUGH THE COLUMN.
ALTHOUGH WILL SEE CIRRUS BEGIN TO INVADE THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE STATE DURING THE AFTERNOON...SHOULD SEE SUNNY SKIES
WITH HIGHS A FEW DEGREES WARMER IN MANY LOCATIONS THAN YESTERDAY.
TONIGHT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE.
THE VERY DRY AIR WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD TO START THE EVENING BUT
SHOULD SEE CLOUDS INCREASE MID TO LATE EVENING OVER NORTH-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. MODELS INDICATE
A FEW SHOWERS COULD MOVE INTO NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN AROUND
MIDNIGHT IN THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION REGIME AND LEFT A SMALL
CHANCE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SCENARIO. BUT BETTER CHANCES WILL MOVE
INTO THE ROUTE 39/51 CORRIDOR LATE. THE INCREASING CLOUDS AND
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT CALLS FOR A WARMER NIGHT. LOWS RANGING
FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTHEAST TO AROUND 40 WEST.
THURSDAY...THE SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE STATE. A BAND OF RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT WITH
PRECIP MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE
MORNING AND INTO EASTERN WISCONSIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. VARIOUS
MODELS MOVE THE PRECIP THROUGH THE REGION AT DIFFERENT TIMES (DUE TO
DIFFERENT HANDLING OF THE SPLITTING OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY)...SO THERE
IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO TIMING. REGARDLESS...AS THE RAIN
MOVES INTO MORE STABLE AIR...INTENSITY AND COVERAGE SHOULD GRADUALLY
WANE THROUGH THE DAY. WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCES DURING THE
MORNING CONSEQUENTLY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THE MOST IN EASTERN
WISCONSIN BEFORE THE RAIN ARRIVES AND ADJUSTED TEMPS A BIT.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
SHOWERS WILL EXIT THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT MOVE INTO MICHIGAN. THE NAM
FORECASTS ADDITIONAL SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE MUCH WEAKER
WITH THE SYSTEM AND ARE DRY. LEFT OUT ANY PRECIPITATION FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT. DRY NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
RISING HEIGHTS SHOULD RESULT IN SURFACE TEMPERATURES CLIMBING
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.
SPLIT FLOW FORECAST BY MODELS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
SOME JET ENERGY MOVING BY TO THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
PROVIDING UPPER SUPPORT FOR POSSIBLE ELEVATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF A WARM FRONT. JET ENERGY LIFTING OUT OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS IS FORECAST TO PRODUCE A SYNOPTIC SCALE SYSTEM
LIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE ARE BIG DIFFERENCES IN TRACK AND
INTENSITY BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS RELATED TO THE AMOUNT OF
PHASING WITH NORTHERN STREAM JET ENERGY.
AFTER THAT IT LOOKS LIKE DRY NORTHWEST FLOW RETURNS FOR THE MIDDLE
AND END OF NEXT WEEK WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. OVERALL IT
LOOKS LIKE A SEASONABLE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NOVEMBER
WITH MODERATE AMPLITUDE PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 955 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PATCHY MVFR FOG BETWEEN 09Z AND 13Z...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......TDH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1152 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014
QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRACKS EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
THE LAST CHUNK OF STRATUS IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN HAS QUICKLY BEEN
DISSIPATING THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL COMPLETELY CLEAR OUT BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE COMING AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
INCREASING IN THE LOW LEVELS...WHICH SHOULD MITIGATE HOW
WIDESPREAD ANY RIVER VALLEY FOG CAN GET TONIGHT.
THE MAIN FOCUS INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON IS WITH WHETHER ANY
SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL FALL IN A BAND OF LOW LEVEL
WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH. 21.12Z NAM/GFS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME SATURATION OCCURRING BETWEEN
850-750MB THOUGH ANY LIFT IS VERY WEAK AND MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE THE SHOWERS. WITH CONFIDENCE NOT VERY HIGH IN WHETHER
ANYTHING WILL FORM...HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON TOMORROW.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014
THE TWO MAIN STORIES GOING INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS WITH THE
RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY
THE WARMUP COMING THIS WEEKEND.
AS FOR THE RAIN CHANCES...CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT THERE
WILL BE SOME RAIN THAT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...BUT THE QUESTION IS WITH HOW LONG IT WILL
LAST/ACCUMULATE. BEYOND THE INITIAL 850-750MB WARM AIR
ADVECTION...THE LIFT COMES IN A FAIRLY NARROW BAND ALONG A
700-500MB TROUGH. THERE IS SOME FRONTOGENESIS THERE AS WELL IN THE
MID LEVELS...BUT THE BETTER PV ADVECTION APPEARS TO TRACK TO THE
NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION AS THE MAIN TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE 21.12Z ECMWF APPEARS TO BE THE
STRONGEST WITH ITS LIFT SINCE IT BREAKS OFF A PIECE OF THE 500MB
TROUGH AND PROPAGATES IT FURTHER SOUTHEAST COMPARED TO THE OTHER
GUIDANCE. HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH A TENTH OF AN INCH TO UNDER A
HALF INCH OF QPF FOR THIS SYSTEM SINCE THE MOISTURE FEED IS IN
THIS NARROW CHANNEL. THE MAIN TRENDS WITH THE 21.12Z GUIDANCE IS
TO SPEED UP THE CLEARING OF THE RAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
21.12Z ECMWF THE SLOWEST AND THE MAIN REASON THAT THERE EVEN ARE
ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES LEFT IN THE FORECAST AFTER 18Z THURSDAY.
ALL SIGNS CONTINUE TO POINT TO A WARM WEEKEND AHEAD...PARTICULARLY
ON SUNDAY WHEN STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL ADVECTION KICK IN AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES FOR TEMPERATURES AT
925/850MB ARE NOT T00 HIGH AT +1 TO +2...BUT STILL HELP TO SIGNAL
THAT CONDITIONS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL. HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF
KEEPING FORECAST HIGHS ABOVE GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOW
70S.
THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN ON MONDAY/TUESDAY AND SHOULD BE THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR SOME WIDESPREAD HEAVIER RAINS AS A SURFACE LOW RUNS UP
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
SOME TIMING/INTENSITY DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 21.12Z GFS/ECMWF BUT
THE OVERALL MESSAGE IS SIMILAR.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014
SOME CONCERN FOR VALLEY FOG AT KLSE LATE TONIGHT. BOTH THE 22.00Z
NAM AND 22.03Z RAP SHOW SATURATION OCCURRING AT THE SURFACE BUT
SUGGEST THE WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT
RANGE. THE FLAG HERE AT THE OFFICE IS MOVING A LITTLE BIT BUT NOT
AS MUCH AS WOULD BE ANTICIPATED BASED ON THE MODEL WINDS AND A BIT
OF A HAZE LAYER APPEARS TO BE SHOWING UP OVER THE CITY. AS THE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN OVERNIGHT...WOULD
EXPECT THE WINDS ALOFT TO CONTINUE SLOWLY INCREASING WHICH SHOULD
CREATE ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP THE FOG FROM FORMING.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT THAT HIGH AND WILL INCLUDE A
BCFG TO INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME FOG. THE GRADIENT SHOULD
PRODUCE DECENT SUSTAINED SOUTH WINDS WEDNESDAY AND WITH GOOD
MIXING...GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KNOTS SHOULD OCCUR AT KRST. AS
THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES WEDNESDAY EVENING...SHOULD START TO SEE
ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE ARRIVE FOR A VFR CEILING TO FORM AT
KRST. THE RAIN WITH THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM...HALBACH
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MELBOURNE FL
1050 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014
.DISCUSSION...
.UPDATE NR 3...QUITE A DEW POINT SPREAD FROM THE MID/UPPER 50S IN
THE COUNTIES JUST NORTH OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE UPPER 60S AND
LOW 70S MARTIN PALM BEACH COUNTIES. WEST PALM BEACH TWDR SHOWING
LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP FALLING OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES WHILE THE
06Z GFS MAV MOS POPS LOOK TOO HIGH GIVEN THE DRY AIR ADVECTING DOWN
THE PENINSULA THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS. THE LATEST RUC13 RUN WAS
INDICATING THAT THE DRIER AIR SHOULD REACH SAINT LUCIE AND NORTH
OKEECHOBEE LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD TEND TO LIMIT ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIP TO OKEECHOBEE...SAINT LUCIE AND MARTIN COUNTIES THIS
AFTERNOON. UP STREAM VORTICITY MAXES AND THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF
AN EXITING 250MB JET MAX WILL KEEP SKIES CONSIDERABLE TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. LOW LEVEL WINDS SHIFTING FROM THE
NORTH TO THE NORTHEAST WILL BRING A MOIST BUT MORE STABLE MARINE AIR
MASS ASHORE NORTH OF VERO BEACH WHERE AFTERNOON POPS ARE LESS THAN
15 PERCENT...PRECIP NOT FORECAST.
.UPDATE NR 2...REMOVE FOG FROM APPLICABLE ZONES. ANOTHER UPDATE NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION TO POSSIBLY REMOVE PRECIP FROM INDIAN RIVER
OKEECHOBEE SAINT LUCIE AND MARTIN COUNTIES IF DRY AIR MOVES DOWN
THAT FAR.
.UPDATE...SENT SOME UPDATES TO ZFP AND GRIDS THIS MORNING TO ADD
PATCHY FOG MENTION. SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED FROM
MELBOURNE TO THE TREASURE COAST IN INDIAN RIVER AND SAINT LUCIE
COUNTIES...IN THE PREFRONTAL AIRMASS THAT STILL HAS FAIRLY HIGH
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE. BOUNDARY LAYER DRYING AND SOME MORNING SUN
SHOULD ALLOW THE FOG TO BURN OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER 9 AM AS LOW
LVL FLOW BECOMES NW/N INTO MID MORNING.
TODAY...CLOSED MID LAYER LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD OFF THE MID
ATLC TODAY WITH A TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE SFC LOW
OFFSHORE PUSHING SOUTHWARD THROUGH NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS
MORNING AND TOWARD THE SRN TREASURE COAST AND OKEECHOBEE COUNTY THIS
AFTERNOON. LOW LVL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT AND SOME WANING LIFT
FROM A DEPARTING UPPER LVL JET SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO AGAIN SPARK
SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS FAR SRN PORTIONS OF E CENTRAL FL THIS
AFTERNOON WHERE PWATS WILL REMAIN FROM 1.7 TO 1.8 INCHES ACROSS FAR
SRN SECTIONS. WILL KEEP CENTRAL/NRN SECTIONS DRY WITH CONSIDERABLE
UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS INTO THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THE CIRRUS BAND STARTS
TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO
15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 ALONG THE VOLUSIA COUNTY
COAST TO THE MID 80S ACROSS THE SRN INTERIOR.
TONIGHT...MODELS INDICATE SFC BOUNDARY SHOULD SLIP SOUTH OF MARTIN
COUNTY THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT LINGERING MOISTURE ACROSS FAR SRN
SECTIONS INTO THE EVENING WILL SUPPORT 20-30 PCT CHANCE FOR SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SRN SECTIONS INTO THE EVENING HOURS...AND
SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS MARTIN COUNTY THROUGH THE NIGHT. CENTRAL AND
NRN SECTIONS SHOULD SEE CLEARING AS UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS THAT HAS BEEN
OVER THE AREA FOR AWHILE SHIFTS SLOWLY TO THE SE. LOWS WILL DROP
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S NORTH 65-70 ACROSS S CSTL SECTIONS.
THU-THU NIGHT...A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE
NORTHEAST U.S. COAST SLOWLY PULLS AWAY NORTHEASTWARD WHILE RATHER
FLAT ZONAL FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. BROAD
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE ARKLATECH
REGION. A FRESH NORTHEAST WIND FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL BE FELT
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS DRIER
CONDITIONS SOUTHWARD SO HAVE PULLED POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES FOR THIS PERIOD AS DEEPEST MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH TIGHT
GRADIENT REMAINS STYMIED OVER THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA.
HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND
60 DEGREES NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR TO THE LOW/MID 60S FURTHER
SOUTH OVER THE INTERIOR...EXCEPT MID/UPPER 60S COCOA BEACH SOUTH
THROUGH THE TREASURE COAST.
FRI-FRI NIGHT...AN UPPER IMPULSE WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. AND FLORIDA PENINSULA OVER THIS PERIOD. ENERGY WILL
ALSO TRAVERSE THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA FROM THE SOUTHWEST RIDING
NORTHEAST ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE THERE.
THERE WILL REMAIN A FINE LINE OF DEEPER LEVEL MOISTURE SOUTHWARD AND
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW STILL WITH EXACT PLACEMENT/STRENGTH OF
FEATURES TO GO ALONG WITH TIMING. WILL CONTINUE A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE TREASURE COAST AND SOUTHERN OKEECHOBEE
COUNTY WITH 20 PERCENT POPS FURTHER NORTHWARD TOWARDS
MELBOURNE...BUT JUST SOUTH OF KISSIMMEE.
SAT-TUE...THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED IMPULSE WILL CONTINUE ITS
SOUTHWARD DIVE SOUTH AND EAST AWAY FROM EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA ON SAT.
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND FLOW ALOFT FOLLOWS SAT-SUN UNTIL A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE PARKS ACROSS THE AREA MON-TUE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
SLOW TO BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH THE CENTER HAVING PULLED OFF OF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY TUE. A LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE COMPONENT
OF WIND IS FORECAST THROUGH THIS TIME. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF WANT TO
BRING A DISTURBANCE OUT OF THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN TO NEAR WEST CUBA
BY THE END OF THIS PERIOD WITH THE GFS MUCH STRONGER WITH THIS
FEATURE.
SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY LINGER AROUND THE TREASURE COAST ON
SAT WITH DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING ON SUN. WITH DEEPER ONSHORE FLOW
RETURNING EARLY NEXT WEEK WE MAY SEE INCREASING CHANCES FOR
DEVELOPING COASTAL SHOWERS MON-TUE TIMEFRAME. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
LOWER 80S WITH 60S FOR LOWS...EXCEPT COOLER LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR WHICH MAY REALIZE UPPER 50S.
&&
.AVIATION...
UPATE...VFR WITH SCT AOA FL120 NORTH TERMINALS AND BKN-OVC AOA FL120
SOUTHERN TAF SITES. TEMPO MVFR IN/NEAR ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS VERO BEACH SOUTH.
PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION
SOME SCT-BKN STRATUS AND PATCHY IFR FOG IS DEVELOPING FROM
KSFB-KMCO. SCT-BKN LOW CLOUDS WILL CONT TO DVLP ACROSS NRN INTERIOR
AREAS THRU 11Z. SFC FRONT PUSHING SOUTH AND DEVELOPING DRIER
NORTHERLY FLOW SHOULD ALLOW STRATUS/BR TO DISSIPATE FAIRLY SOON
AFTER SUNRISE. AS SFC FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF KMLB THIS AFTERNOON THERE
WILL BE A CHC FOR SHRA/TSRA FROM KFPR-KSUA. INCLUDED VCSH AT
KFPR/KSUA THIS AFTN FOR NOW. MAY NEED TO ADD TSRA TO FCST WITH LATER
UPDTS.
&&
.MARINE...
CURRENT-THIS AFTERNOON...BUOYS RECORDING NORTHWEST WINDS NORTH OF
THE CAPE AND WEST NORTHWEST WINDS CAPE TO FORT PIERCE INLET WHERE
THE FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH. STILL SOUTHWEST SOUTH OF FORT PIERCE
INLET BUT IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST IN THE
AFTERNOON PROVIDED THE FRONT MOVES FAR ENOUGH SOUTH. BUOY/CMAN WINS
10 TO 12 KNOTS MAX OUT TO 120NM/BUOY 41010. FORECASTING A NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WIND INCREASE LATE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN
THE PENINSULA AND COASTAL WATERS.
UPDATED WINDS AND RE RUNNING A SHORT SWAN WAVE FORECAST FOR THE
AFTERNOON TO SEE IF THERE IS ENOUGH OF A DIFFERENCE TO CHANGE WAVE
HEIGHTS FOR THE AFTERNOON.
PREVIOUS MARINE DISCUSSION
SFC FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE NRN WATERS THIS MORNING AND SRN
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15
KNOTS OFFSHORE WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 4-5 FT AND HIGHER IN THE GULF
STREAM. WILL RAISE SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES FOR LATE
AFTN AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE OFFSHORE GULF STREAM WATERS.
THU-THU NIGHT...NE WINDS 10-15 KTS...PERHAPS SLIGHTLY HIGHER AWAY
FROM THE COAST SOUTH OF VERO BEACH. SEAS 2-3 FT NEAR SHORE AND 3-4
FT GULF STREAM/OFFSHORE.
FRI-FRI NIGHT...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE SOUTHERN FL PENINSULA/FL STRAITS AND HIGH PRESSURE TRYING
TO NOSE IN FROM THE NORTH. STILL MAINLY NE WINDS APPROACHING 15 KTS
AWAY FROM THE COAST BUT FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 15-20 KTS SOUTH FROM
THE CAPE DURING THE DAY THRU FRI EVENING. CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS MAY
BE NECESSARY HERE. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD TO 4-5 FT SOUTH OF FT.
PIERCE DURING THE DAY AND PERHAPS 5-6 FT FRI NIGHT GULF STREAM/WELL
OFFSHORE FROM SEBASTIAN INLET SOUTHWARD.
SAT-SUN...THE PREVIOUS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN
PENINSULA WILL GRADUALLY PULL AWAY WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN THE
N/NE WINDS. SEAS WILL ALSO SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD FROM THE WEST.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MIN RHS WILL DROP TO 35-40 PCT OVER THE NRN INTERIOR TODAY WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. NO HEADLINES NEEDED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 79 58 78 59 / 0 0 0 0
MCO 84 61 81 61 / 0 0 0 10
MLB 82 64 79 66 / 10 10 10 10
VRB 83 67 81 68 / 20 10 10 10
LEE 83 58 81 58 / 0 0 0 0
SFB 83 60 81 60 / 0 0 0 0
ORL 84 62 82 62 / 0 0 0 0
FPR 83 68 80 68 / 30 20 10 10
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
FORECASTS...WIMMER
IMPACT WX...BLOTTMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
852 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
...UPDATE FOR MESOSCALE TRENDS...
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 845 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
UPDATED THE NEAR TERM GRIDS TO BETTER REFLECT WSR-88D TRENDS WITH A
PREFERENCE TO THE HRRR SOLUTION. HIGH BASED SHOWERS AROUND THE REGION
IN RESPONSE TO 305 KELVIN ISENTROPIC LIFT. CLOUDS BASES ARE RELATIVELY
HIGH (8-12KFT), SO EXPECT VERY LITTLE, IF ANY PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATION.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 137 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
TODAY WILL START OUT WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS, AND WITH MILD SOUTH
WINDS AROUND 12 TO 14 MPH. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS HEADING TOWARD
SOUTHWEST KANSAS FROM THE WEST. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE
INTRODUCED IN THE WEST BY 17Z, WITH POPS MOVING EAST THROUGH THE
DAY. THERE DOES NOT SEEM TO BE ENOUGH CAPE OR BULK SHEAR TO
WARRANT ANY SEVERE STORMS. THE HIGHEST POP CHANCES WILL BE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON, RANGING FROM 45 TO 54 PERCENT IN OUR EASTERN
ZONES. I RAN THE QPF_FM_POP TOOL, AND THEN INCREASED QPF IN OUR
EASTERN TIER OF COUNTIES TO NEAR 0.10 FROM 00Z TO 06Z, TO BETTER
MATCH UP WITH OUR EASTERN NEIGHBORS.
THIS WAVE IS RATHER FAST MOVING, AND THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
END IN THE WEST BY 00Z, AND ACROSS MY EASTERN ZONES BY 12Z THURSDAY.
WINDS WILL PICK UP BY NOON TODAY AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH,
AND SHOULD BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH GUSTING TO 25
MPH. WINDS WILL THEN RECEDE AFTER THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH PASSES
THIS EVENING, AND RETURN TO A SOUTHEAST DIRECTION AT 10 MPH OR SO.
AS FOR HIGHS TODAY, THEY WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER TO MID 70S IN THE
WEST AROUND SYRACUSE TO THE UPPER 70S IN THE SOUTHEAST NEAR MEDICINE
LODGE.
TONIGHT SHOULD START CLEARING OUT FAIRLY EARLY ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN
KANSAS. WITH WINDS GOING LIGHT AND WITH THE FRESH PRECIP ON THE
GROUND, THERE COULD BE SOME RATHER THICK FOG FORM TOWARDS MORNING.
FOR NOW, HAVE PLACED AREAS OF 1/2 MILE VISIBILITIES DUE TO FOG IN
OUR NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AFTER 09Z. JUST HOW FAR SOUTH THE
NEAR-DENSE FOG WILL DEVELOP IS UP FOR QUESTION. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WERE NOT CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, AND
SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S RANGE.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD AND SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE
PLAINS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS
SHOULD SUPPRESS ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FROM FORMING OVER WESTERN
KANSAS WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION DURING THIS PERIOD AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
SITS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES
OUT OF THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND INTO THE PLAINS. THIS FEATURE
WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
UPPER 70S WITH LOW TO MID 80S EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND.
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF WEST CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE UPPER 40S WILL BE POSSIBLE. COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS MONDAY AROUND 70 DEGREES AND
HIGHS IN THE 60 ON TUESDAY. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 40
DEGREES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY BUT WITH VFR
CEILINGS. A CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING AND HAVE KEPT THE VCTS IN THE TAFS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE FROM THE SOUTH AROUND 10 KNOTS INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KNOTS BY
LATE MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 75 52 77 54 / 50 40 0 0
GCK 76 49 77 50 / 30 20 0 0
EHA 74 49 79 52 / 20 10 0 0
LBL 74 52 79 52 / 40 20 0 0
HYS 75 51 74 52 / 60 40 0 0
P28 79 56 80 55 / 40 40 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SUGDEN
SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
831 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY WHILE SLOWLY TRACKING NORTHEAST OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. COOL AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY...FOLLOWED BY DRIER CONDITIONS AND A
SLOW WARMING TREND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE AS OF 830 AM EDT...ISOLD TSTMS STILL ONGOING ACROSS THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY AND FAR SE VA AS OF 12Z. ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE TO WARRANT MENTION OF ISOLD TSTMS ACROSS THESE
AREAS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE CENTER OF THE CLOSED LOW
SHIFTS EAST AND OFFSHORE. HAVE MADE THAT ADJUSTED TO THE FORECAST.
OTHERWISE...MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS TO SHOW BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS ACROSS INTERIOR AREAS (I-95 CORRIDOR) THROUGH THE
MORNING...THEN SHIFTING FARTHER EAST TO THE EASTERN SHORE THIS
AFTERNOON.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS ~1007 MB SFC LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENING OFF THE SE VA/NE NC COAST...WITH STRONG UPPER
LOW CENTERED OVER WEST CENTRAL VA. AREA OF SHOWERS OVERSPREADING
PIEDMONT EARLY THIS MORNING UNDER THE COLD POOL ALOFT...WITH
ANOTHER AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS PUSHING OFF THE SE
VA/NE NC COAST ASSOCIATED W/ SFC COLD FRONT AND WIND SHIFT
BOUNDARY. LATEST RAP AND SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS CAPE ON THE ORDER
OF 300-500 J/KG AS OF 09Z...SHIFTING OFFSHORE PRIOR TO 12Z SO WILL
MAINTAIN MENTION OF TSTMS ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THAT TIMEFRAME.
OTHERWISE...SHOULD BE TOO STABLE IN LOW LEVELS FOR ANY ADDITIONAL
TSTMS.
LATER TODAY...CLOSED UPPER LOW SLOWLY PUSHES ESE AND SHOULD BE
CENTERED OFFSHORE BY 15-18Z. WILL CARRY LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL
(60-80%) POPS OVER MUCH OF THE CWA THROUGH LATE MORNING AS DEEP
MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE FAVORABLE THROUGH THIS PERIOD (CHC POPS
ACRS SOUTH CENTRAL VA AND INTERIOR NE NC WHERE LESS MOISTURE
RESIDES). AS THE UPPER LOW PIVOTS OFFSHORE...DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION AND HAVE TRENDED POPS DOWN TO 20% OR LESS
OVER SW ZONES...WHILE FAVORABLE LIFT AND MOISTURE PERSIST FARTHER
NORTH AND EAST. WILL MAINTAIN 60-80% POPS OVER THE ERN 1/2 TO 1/3
OF THE CWA THROUGH 20Z. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO BREAK UP FROM THE
SW LATER IN THE AFTN...MAY SEE SOME PEEKS OF SUN ACRS SOUTH
CENTRAL VA BY MID- LATE AFTN BUT OVERALL IT WILL STAY BKN/OVC.
HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPS A FEW MORE DEGREES GIVEN CURRENT READINGS
IN THE LOWER-MID 50S...GENLY NO BETTER THAN THE UPPER 50S TO
AROUND 60 F FOR MOST AREAS...WARMEST AREAS WILL BE OVER THE FAR SOUTH
AND ON THE ERN SHORE WHERE LOWER 60S ARE FORECAST. OTHER FEATURE TO NOTE
WILL BE THE INCREASING NW WINDS BY AFTN AS THE SFC LOW INTENSIFIES
FAIRLY RAPIDLY OFF THE COAST. GUSTS TO 25-35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE
BY LATER AFTN/EVENING (ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST).
THE CLOSED LOW MOVES FARTHER NE TONIGHT. HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS
WILL BE CONFINED TO THE ERN SHORE THIS EVENING...GENLY ONLY 20%-30%
POPS OR LOWER ELSEWHERE AFTER 00Z. DECREASING CLOUDS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED ACROSS INTERIOR VA/NC OVERNIGHT. REMAINING BREEZY TO
WINDY ESP NE SECTIONS. LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 40S ALONG AND WEST OF
I-95 TO THE LOW 50S NEAR THE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT IN BETWEEN SUB 1000 MB SFC
LOW OFF LONG ISLAND AND 1020 MB SFC HIGH OVER THE OH/TN VALLEY.
NAM SOLUTION IS OUTLIER WITH RESPECT TO IT`S LOCATION OF THE SFC
LOW WELL NORTH OF OTHER MODELS ON THU. THUS...NAM WINDS ARE
LIGHTER DUE TO A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT. FAVOR WINDS CLOSER TO A
GFS/ECMWF BLEND...WHICH YIELDS BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WITH
GUSTS TO 35 MPH ACRS THE ERN SHORE...25-30 MPH ELSEWHERE. A
20%-30% POP WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR THE ERN SHORE...DRY ELSEWHERE.
STILL ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A COLD POOL ALOFT FOR
SKIES TO AVG OUT MOSTLY CLOUDY N/E TO PARTLY SUNNY S/W (MAYBE
MOSTLY SUNNY OVER THE FAR SW). HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S/AROUND 60 F
ON THE MD ERN SHORE...TO THE UPPER 60S FOR INTERIOR NE NC AND
SOUTH CENTRAL VA. MOSTLY CLEAR SW TO PARTLY CLOUDY NE THU NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.
LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER NE AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA ON
FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR MAINLY SUNNY CONDS...DIMINISHING WINDS...AND
MILDER TEMPS. HIGH FRIDAY IN THE MID 60S NE TO AROUND 70 F SW.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS WELL TO THE NE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS
UPPER RIDGING EXPANDS EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL US. A WEAK TROUGH
CLIPS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY MOVES OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY. A HIGH AMPLITUDE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
ERN US MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING OFFSHORE BY
MIDWEEK. GIVEN THIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MEDIUM
RANGE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70 SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AND TREND UPWARD INTO THE LOW/MID BY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY (PERHAPS WARMER TUESDAY). LOWS SHOULD AVERAGE
FROM THE LOW/MID 40S NW...TO THE LOW/MID 50S FOR SE COASTAL
LOCATIONS.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LO PRES WILL DEVELOP OFF THE NRN MID ATLC CST THIS MORNG...THEN
WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NE OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND AND CANADIAN MARITIME CSTS TODAY THRU FRI. UPR LVL LO
WILL SWING OVR THE AREA THEN OFF THE CST TODAY INTO THIS
EVENG...BRINGING LWR CIGS (MVFR/POSSIBLY IFR) AND -RA TO THE TAF
SITES. NW OR N WINDS WILL PICK UP LATER THIS MORNG AND REMAIN
RATHER STRONG AND GUSTY INTO TNGT MOST TAF SITES. -RA WILL LAST
THE LONGEST OVR THE LWR MD/VA ERN SHR. BREEZY/WINDY OVR ERN HALF
OF THE REGION THRU THU...AS STRONG LO GRADUALLY MOVES AWAY TO THE
NE. COULD STILL BE SHOWERS OVR LWR MD (SBY) ALSO. HI PRES AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR FRI AND SAT.
&&
.MARINE...
LO PRES WILL FORM OFF THE NRN MID ATLC CST THIS MORNG...THEN WILL
CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND AND
CANADIAN MARITIME CSTS TODAY THRU FRI. NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
20 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO ARND 30 KT THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENG.
THEN...FM THIS EVENG THRU THU AFTN...GUSTS TO ARND 35 KT WILL BE
LIKELY OVR AT LEAST THE CHES BAY ZNS AND ON THE CSTL WTRS FM
FENWICK ISLAND TO CAPE CHARLES LGT. THUS...HAVE ISSUED SCA THIS
MORNING/AFTN RAMPING UP TO A GALE WARNING IN THESE LOCATIONS FOR THIS
EVENG INTO/THRU THU AFTN. OTHRWISE...EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS OVR THE
ENTIRE WTRS FM THIS MORNG INTO EARLY FRI MORNG...AS STRNG LO PRES
IS SLOW TO MOVE AWAY TO THE NE. WITH THE FLOW BEING OFFSHORE FM
THE NW...SEAS WOULD TEND TO STAY CAPPED AT 5-7 FT AND TIDAL
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. N/NW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
NEXT WEEKEND WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT AND SEAS
SUBSIDING.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ633-635>638-
656-658.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
ANZ630>632-634.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
ANZ650-652-654.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...JDM/LKB
SHORT TERM...JDM/LKB
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
814 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY WHILE SLOWLY TRACKING NORTHEAST OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. COOL AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY...FOLLOWED BY DRIER CONDITIONS AND A
SLOW WARMING TREND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS ~1007 MB SFC LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING OFF THE
SE VA/NE NC COAST...WITH STRONG UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER WEST
CENTRAL VA. AREA OF SHOWERS OVERSPREADING PIEDMONT EARLY THIS
MORNING UNDER THE COLD POOL ALOFT...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS PUSHING OFF THE SE VA/NE NC COAST ASSOCIATED W/
SFC COLD FRONT AND WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY. LATEST RAP AND SPC
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 300-500 J/KG AS OF
09Z...SHIFTING OFFSHORE PRIOR TO 12Z SO WILL MAINTAIN MENTION OF
TSTMS ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THAT TIMEFRAME. OTHERWISE...SHOULD
BE TOO STABLE IN LOW LEVELS FOR ANY ADDITIONAL TSTMS.
LATER TODAY...CLOSED UPPER LOW SLOWLY PUSHES ESE AND SHOULD BE
CENTERED OFFSHORE BY 15-18Z. WILL CARRY LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL
(60-80%) POPS OVER MUCH OF THE CWA THROUGH LATE MORNING AS DEEP
MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE FAVORABLE THROUGH THIS PERIOD (CHC POPS
ACRS SOUTH CENTRAL VA AND INTERIOR NE NC WHERE LESS MOISTURE
RESIDES). AS THE UPPER LOW PIVOTS OFFSHORE...DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION AND HAVE TRENDED POPS DOWN TO 20% OR LESS
OVER SW ZONES...WHILE FAVORABLE LIFT AND MOISTURE PERSIST FARTHER
NORTH AND EAST. WILL MAINTAIN 60-80% POPS OVER THE ERN 1/2 TO 1/3
OF THE CWA THROUGH 20Z. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO BREAK UP FROM THE
SW LATER IN THE AFTN...MAY SEE SOME PEEKS OF SUN ACRS SOUTH
CENTRAL VA BY MID- LATE AFTN BUT OVERALL IT WILL STAY BKN/OVC.
HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPS A FEW MORE DEGREES GIVEN CURRENT READINGS
IN THE LOWER-MID 50S...GENLY NO BETTER THAN THE UPPER 50S TO
AROUND 60 F FOR MOST AREAS...WARMEST AREAS WILL BE OVER THE FAR SOUTH
AND ON THE ERN SHORE WHERE LOWER 60S ARE FORECAST. OTHER FEATURE TO NOTE
WILL BE THE INCREASING NW WINDS BY AFTN AS THE SFC LOW INTENSIFIES
FAIRLY RAPIDLY OFF THE COAST. GUSTS TO 25-35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE
BY LATER AFTN/EVENING (ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST).
THE CLOSED LOW MOVES FARTHER NE TONIGHT. HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS
WILL BE CONFINED TO THE ERN SHORE THIS EVENING...GENLY ONLY 20%-30%
POPS OR LOWER ELSEWHERE AFTER 00Z. DECREASING CLOUDS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED ACROSS INTERIOR VA/NC OVERNIGHT. REMAINING BREEZY TO
WINDY ESP NE SECTIONS. LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 40S ALONG AND WEST OF
I-95 TO THE LOW 50S NEAR THE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT IN BETWEEN SUB 1000 MB SFC
LOW OFF LONG ISLAND AND 1020 MB SFC HIGH OVER THE OH/TN VALLEY.
NAM SOLUTION IS OUTLIER WITH RESPECT TO IT`S LOCATION OF THE SFC
LOW WELL NORTH OF OTHER MODELS ON THU. THUS...NAM WINDS ARE
LIGHTER DUE TO A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT. FAVOR WINDS CLOSER TO A
GFS/ECMWF BLEND...WHICH YIELDS BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WITH
GUSTS TO 35 MPH ACRS THE ERN SHORE...25-30 MPH ELSEWHERE. A
20%-30% POP WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR THE ERN SHORE...DRY ELSEWHERE.
STILL ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A COLD POOL ALOFT FOR
SKIES TO AVG OUT MOSTLY CLOUDY N/E TO PARTLY SUNNY S/W (MAYBE
MOSTLY SUNNY OVER THE FAR SW). HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S/AROUND 60 F
ON THE MD ERN SHORE...TO THE UPPER 60S FOR INTERIOR NE NC AND
SOUTH CENTRAL VA. MOSTLY CLEAR SW TO PARTLY CLOUDY NE THU NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.
LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER NE AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA ON
FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR MAINLY SUNNY CONDS...DIMINISHING WINDS...AND
MILDER TEMPS. HIGH FRIDAY IN THE MID 60S NE TO AROUND 70 F SW.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS WELL TO THE NE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS
UPPER RIDGING EXPANDS EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL US. A WEAK TROUGH
CLIPS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY MOVES OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY. A HIGH AMPLITUDE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
ERN US MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING OFFSHORE BY
MIDWEEK. GIVEN THIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MEDIUM
RANGE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70 SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AND TREND UPWARD INTO THE LOW/MID BY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY (PERHAPS WARMER TUESDAY). LOWS SHOULD AVERAGE
FROM THE LOW/MID 40S NW...TO THE LOW/MID 50S FOR SE COASTAL
LOCATIONS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LO PRES WILL DEVELOP OFF THE NRN MID ATLC CST THIS MORNG...THEN
WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NE OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND AND CANADIAN MARITIME CSTS TODAY THRU FRI. UPR LVL LO
WILL SWING OVR THE AREA THEN OFF THE CST TODAY INTO THIS
EVENG...BRINGING LWR CIGS (MVFR/POSSIBLY IFR) AND -RA TO THE TAF
SITES. NW OR N WINDS WILL PICK UP LATER THIS MORNG AND REMAIN
RATHER STRONG AND GUSTY INTO TNGT MOST TAF SITES. -RA WILL LAST
THE LONGEST OVR THE LWR MD/VA ERN SHR. BREEZY/WINDY OVR ERN HALF
OF THE REGION THRU THU...AS STRONG LO GRADUALLY MOVES AWAY TO THE
NE. COULD STILL BE SHOWERS OVR LWR MD (SBY) ALSO. HI PRES AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR FRI AND SAT.
&&
.MARINE...
LO PRES WILL FORM OFF THE NRN MID ATLC CST THIS MORNG...THEN WILL
CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND AND
CANADIAN MARITIME CSTS TODAY THRU FRI. NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
20 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO ARND 30 KT THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENG.
THEN...FM THIS EVENG THRU THU AFTN...GUSTS TO ARND 35 KT WILL BE
LIKELY OVR AT LEAST THE CHES BAY ZNS AND ON THE CSTL WTRS FM
FENWICK ISLAND TO CAPE CHARLES LGT. THUS...HAVE ISSUED SCA THIS
MORNING/AFTN RAMPING UP TO A GALE WARNING IN THESE LOCATIONS FOR THIS
EVENG INTO/THRU THU AFTN. OTHRWISE...EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS OVR THE
ENTIRE WTRS FM THIS AFTN INTO EARLY FRI MORNG...AS STRNG LO PRES
IS SLOW TO MOVE AWAY TO THE NE. WITH THE FLOW BEING OFFSHORE FM
THE NW...SEAS WOULD TEND TO STAY CAPPED AT 5-7 FT AND TIDAL
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. N/NW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
NEXT WEEKEND WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT AND SEAS
SUBSIDING.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ633-635>638-
656-658.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
ANZ630>632-634.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
ANZ650-652-654.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...JDM/LKB
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS DULUTH MN
1037 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1022 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
BAND OF ACCAS EVIDENT ON SAT IMAGERY FROM JUST SOUTH OF KPWC TO
SRN PART OF STATE...ADVECTING EAST. RAP13 SHOWS THIS ARE ALIGNED
WELL WITH 85H DEWPOINT AXIS OF 8C/10C. 88D KMPX SHOWS A LINE OF
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS
DIMINISHED. NO LTG STRIKES ATTM AND A SPRINKLE OR TWO HAS OCCURED
WITHIN THIS CLOUD BAND. LATEST FCST RAP13 AND HRRR SIM REFLECTIVITY
PRODUCT INDICATES A FEW SPRINKLES MAY OCCUR WITH THIS AREA AS IT
TRANSLATES EAST TODAY. 85H 10C DEWPOINT AXIS DOES EXTEND RAPIDLY
NORTH TO INCLUDE ALL OF WRN CWA BY 18Z...AND WRN/CTRL CWA BY 21Z.
FCST UNSTABLE LOW/MID LVL LAPSE RATES REMAIN SOUTH OF CWA TODAY SO
HAVE REMOVED THUNDER MENTION WITH SOME SLIGHT INTREPIDATION.
OTHERWISE ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER BASED ON
MORNING 925 TEMPS/ADVECTION....AND INCREASED GUSTS BASED ON VALUES
ALREADY IN EXCESS OF 25 MPH IN WRN CWA. OTHERWISE MAIN PRECIP
EVENT STILL FCST TO SWEEP OVER AREA TONIGHT/EARLY THUR MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED AROUND THE COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH
RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW WEAK ISOLATED T-STORMS OVER NE
MN...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL
LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHLAND MOST OF TONIGHT AND EARLY THUR
MORNING. WILL ALSO HIGHLIGHT THE GUSTY S/SE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY AND
EVEN WARMER CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY.
UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE MID MS VALLEY REGION N/NEWD INTO
NRN QUEBEC THIS MORNING IS BEING SQUEEZED BY A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND THE NEXT INCOMING S/W ROLLING IN ACROSS
THE NRN FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES. AT THE SFC AN INVERTED RIDGE
FROM ERN QUEBEC EXTENDING BACK INTO THE WRN OHIO VALLEY REGION IS
DRAGGING EWD SLOWLY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...AND ALLOWING THE NEXT
SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE WEST TO INCREASE THE PRES GRADIENT OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST. A STRENGTHENING PRES GRADIENT TODAY COMBINED
WITH BL MIXING WILL PRODUCE SUSTAINED S/SE WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15
MPH...AND GUSTS UP TO OR EXCEEDING 20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. THE AIR
MASS PRECEDING THE FROPA WILL ATTEMPT TO BECOME UNSTABLE WITH
MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 100 J/KG AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES IN THE
AFTERNOON. INCREASING MOISTURE ON THE NOSE OF MODEST MOISTURE
TRANSPORT FROM THE SOUTH WILL ALLOW CONDITIONS TO BECOME FAVORABLE
FOR A FEW WEAK STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES TONIGHT...THE BROAD LARGE SCALE
LIFT AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE TO SUPPORT
MORE ORGANIZED SHOWERS. HOWEVER THE INSTABILITY WILL REALLY FALL
OFF AND HINDER ANY POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER. SO...WILL CONTINUE WITH
LIKELY RAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT ALONG THE FRONT WITH CONDITIONS DRYING
OUT QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT THUR MORNING. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS
LINGER AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR THUR AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...HIGH
PRESSURE WITH RIDGING ALOFT BEGINS TO TAKE HOLD LATER IN THE DAY
THUR.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL WARM INTO UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S ACROSS
THE ARROWHEAD...AND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S OVER AREAS TO THE
WEST AND SOUTH. THIS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY FOR
MOST AREAS. CLOUDY SKIES WILL KEEP TEMPS MILD TONIGHT...ONLY
FALLING INTO THE 40S. ON THURSDAY...SKIES WILL CLEAR TO THE WEST
AND ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. AREAS TO
THE EAST WILL RISE ANOTHER COUPLE DEGREES INTO THE LOWER TO MID
50S.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
A SERIES OF FAST MOVING SHORT WAVES WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A VORT MAX WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS FRIDAY...MAINLY TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA.
HOWEVER...THE DRY AIR MAS IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT ANY PRECIPITATION. A
MORE ORGANIZED WAVE WILL DROP OVER THE LAKE SUPERIOR REGION
SATURDAY...BUT AT THIS TIME THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE EAST OF THE CWA. SMALL POPS MAY BE NEEDED
IN THE TIP OF THE MN ARROWHEAD SAT IF THE TRACK OF THE LOW TRENDS
ANY FURTHER WEST. LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A H85
RIDGE AXIS MOVES INTO WESTERN MN SATURDAY AFTRN...GRADUALLY SHIFTING
EAST OVER WISCONSIN SUNDAY...KEEPING THE NORTHLAND DRY AND MOSTLY
SUNNY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE SOME LOW
CLOUDS/DRIZZLE THAT MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE WESTERN TIP AND NORTH
SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES AND THE MARINE WINDS BECOME ONSHORE.
HOWEVER...HAVE KEPT POPS OUT SUNDAY AT THIS TIME AS ANTICIPATE A
SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE MOISTURE AND HIGHER DEW POINTS TO SUPPORT
SATURATING THE LOW LEVELS UNTIL THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING A RETURN TO WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS
THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE. ALTHOUGH
MODELS DIFFER IN TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THE WAVE THIS FAR OUT...THE
LATEST GFS/ECM ARE SUGGESTING CONVECTION DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE H50
TROUGH...ALONG A SFC BOUNDARY POSITIONED IN THE NORTHLAND VICINITY
MONDAY. AT THIS TIME HAVE CONTINUED TO CARRY SMALL POPS THROUGH THE
SUNDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY TIME FRAME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 655 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
DISCUSSION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL THROUGH THE DAY. AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT WILL BRING DECREASING CLOUDS AND RAIN OVERNIGHT. EXPECT
MVFR CIGS AND RAIN TO MOVE INTO THE KINL TO KBRD AREAS AROUND
00Z...SPREADING EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR
CONDITIONS AND RAIN AFTER 06-08Z.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 54 46 60 44 / 20 70 20 10
INL 58 47 61 39 / 50 70 10 0
BRD 58 47 65 40 / 40 70 10 0
HYR 56 45 55 41 / 20 70 50 10
ASX 57 45 55 42 / 20 70 60 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CANNON
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GRANING
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
628 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A NICE CIRCULATION
CURRENTLY MOVING NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN FROM
NORTHERN MONTANA. COUPLING THIS IMAGE WITH RAP ANALYZED 500H
INDICATES THE PRESENCE OF A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
THIS FEATURE HAS PRODUCED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT
ACROSS COLORADO...WESTERN NEBRASKA...WYOMING...MONTANA...AND
EXTREME WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE IN A
GENERAL ENE DIRECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WILL BRING RAINFALL
TO MOST OF THE CWA.
THIS MORNING...HI-RES GUIDANCE HAD BEEN INDICATING AN AREA OF
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY THIS MORNING
AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH. THE HOPWRF STILL INDICATES THIS
POTENTIAL...AS DO THE NMM AND ARW. THE HRRR HOWEVER...DROPPED THIS
IDEA FROM ITS EARLIER RUNS AND MAY BE ON TO SOMETHING GIVEN THE
LATEST RADAR TRENDS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. STILL...KEPT A LOW POP
MENTION FROM WESTERN MN AND NORTH AND WEST OF ST. CLOUD THROUGH
THE MORNING.
THE MAIN PRECIPITATION BAND WILL COME TOGETHER OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS ACROSS THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS AS A CONTINUATION OF THE ACTIVITY
SEEN OVERNIGHT IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS OF CO/WY/NE. AS WE
HEAD INTO THE AFTERNOON...UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE THANKS TO AN
ENHANCED FLOW AT JET LEVEL TO THE NORTHWEST WILL BE SUPERIMPOSED
WITH THE VORT MAX AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IN THE LOW LEVELS
ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. SATURATION WILL NOT BE A PROBLEM...BUT
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE
EXPANDING PRECIP BAND COULD LIMIT QPF TO THE NORTH.
HI-RES MODELS AGREE THAT THE NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTED PRECIP BAND
WILL BE PROGRESSING EAST ACROSS WESTERN MN THIS EVENING. SIMULATED
REFLECTIVITY FROM THESE MODELS SUGGEST LIMITED RETURNS NORTH OF
ABOUT MANKATO. THIS LINES UP WELL WITH THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE
NEGATIVE BEST LI`S WHICH WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS SOUTH OF ABOUT
MANKATO TONIGHT. HENCE...ISOLATED THUNDER REMAINS IN THE FORECAST
FOR THIS AREA...WHILE MORE STRATIFORM SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO THE
NORTH. IN GENERAL...A RANGE OF 0.15-0.35" IS NOW IN THE FORECAST
WITH THE MAXIMA BEING IN FAR SOUTHERN MN WHERE LIMITED INSTABILITY
MAY ENHANCE RAINFALL RATES.
GLOBAL MODELS AND HI-RES MODELS ALIKE AGREED THAT THE PRECIP BAND
LOOKS TO MOVE OUT A BIT QUICKER ON THURSDAY. SO...DROPPED THE POPS
FASTER FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY TOMORROW THROUGH MID-MORNING. NOW
EXPECTING THE ENTIRE FA TO BE DRY BY LATE MORNING AND BEYOND.
OTHERWISE...TODAY WILL SEE STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SYSTEM. INCREASED WINDS A FEW KNOTS AND HENCE THE
INCREASED HIGHS FOR TODAY SAW A SLIGHT INCREASE AS WELL.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
SHARP UPR LVL TROF WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE E THU EVE WHILE AN UPR
TROF BUILDS OVER THE NRN PLAINS. THE SFC PRES PATTERN WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY BAGGY...GENERALLY WITH LITTLE DEFINITION TO IT. THAT
SAID...A PRONOUNCED S-SW FLOW WILL DEVELOP AT THE SFC STARTING
FRI AND LAST INTO THE WEEKEND. A WEAK SFC CDFNT FRONT...BUT MORE
LIKELY A SFC TROF...WILL SWING THRU THE REGION FRI BUT BE OF
LITTLE CONSEQUENCE ASIDE FROM A SMALL INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
FOLLOWING THE CLEARING BEHIND THE DEPARTING AFOREMENTIONED TROF.
THE DEPARTURE OF THIS TROF WILL SPELL LARGE-SCALE RIDGING OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS...SPREADING NWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS AND UPR MISS
RIVER VALLEY. THE INCRS IN H5 HEIGHTS WILL ALLOW FOR NOTICEABLE
WARMING FOR THE WEEKEND...INCLUDING HIGHS REACHING AND POSSIBLY
ECLIPSING THE 70-DEGREE MARK. THIS WARM-UP LOOKS TO LAST FOR JUST
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AS THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN AND SHIFT EWD LATE
SUN INTO MON IN ADVANCE OF A MORE ORGANIZED STORM SYSTEM FOR THE
START OF NEXT WEEK. THOUGH THERE IS DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE
FORMATION OF A STORM SYSTEM IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES MONDAY...
SHIFTING NEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY TUE...THERE IS SOME MODEL
DISAGREEMENT AS TO THE PLACEMENT AND SPEED OF THE SYSTEM. HAVE
INCLUDED POPS BUT NO HIGHER THAN 30-40 PERCENT ATTM. THERE IS ALSO
GROWING CONFIDENCE THAT FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A COOLING OF
TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN TO SEASONABLE LEVELS FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION
OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1053 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014
ACTIVE PERIOD AHEAD WITH RAIN DEVELOPING TO THE WEST TODAY AND
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE FA THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. MVFR LIKELY
WITH IFR POSSIBLE...BUT NOT INDICATED IN THE TAFS AT THIS POINT. PREVIOUS
TAFS LOOKED GOOD...MAINLY SOME EDITS WERE MADE TO THE
TIMING OF THE PRECIP WHICH WAS HEAVILY BASED ON AVAILABLE HI-RES
MODEL GUIDANCE. DECENT CONFIDENCE IN TERMS OF THE PRECIP MOVING
THROUGH. ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE WEST THROUGH THE MORING. SPED
UP THE CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. THIS COULD LEAD TO MORE FOG IF THE WIND REMAINS LIGHT
ENOUGH...MAINLY OUR WEST.
KMSP...LITTLE DIFFERENCE FROM MAIN DISCUSSION. CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATE THUNDER TO REMAIN WEST OF MSP THIS MORING.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR WITH MVFR/-SHRA EARLY. WINDS SSE AT 10G20KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS SSW AT 5-10KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS NW AT 5-10KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...RAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORMAN OK
1020 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
.UPDATE...
LOWERED MAX TEMPS AND EXPANDED POPS EASTWARD.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
WITH THE INCOMING SHOWERS AND LOW CLOUDS...LOOKS LIKE TEMPS IN
WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE. HRRR IS SHOWING
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING FARTHER EAST THAN ORIGINALLY
FORECAST...SO EXPANDED POPS EASTWARD A BIT. OVERALL COVERAGE STILL
LOOKS TO BE A BIT SPOTTY...SO OPTED NOT TO RAISE POPS MUCH AT THIS
POINT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/
AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...LITTLE IF ANY LIGHTNING ASSOCIATED WITH PRECIPITATION
ACROSS WEST TEXAS THIS MORNING. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
THIS MORNING ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AS A TROUGH APPROACHES.
BAND OF PRECIP SHOULD MOVE ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA BETWEEN 18-23Z.
CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS BETWEEN 22Z-4Z.
SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/
DISCUSSION...
LITTLE IF ANY CLOUD COVER EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT THIS WILL
CHANGE THROUGH THE MORNING...AS CLOUDS INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF A
TROUGH. MEANWHILE...LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...WILL RESULT IN PATCHY
DENSE FOG. MOST OF THE FOG WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE.
A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS
TODAY...WILL GENERALLY PHASE WITH ANOTHER TROUGH OVER EASTERN NEW
MEXICO/COLORADO. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALTHOUGH WEAK...ENOUGH INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED FOR SOME STORMS.
AFTER THE TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY...VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN...AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS.
ANOTHER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES ON MONDAY. THE EC IS THE
STRONGEST WITH THE TROUGH AS IT HAS BEEN WITH THE LAST FEW
SYSTEMS. THE GFS MAY BE A LITTLE WEAK...BUT STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP
CHANCES LOW FOR RAIN/STORMS WITH THE COLD FRONT (MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT).
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 80 57 80 56 / 10 40 10 0
HOBART OK 78 57 81 57 / 40 40 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 81 59 82 57 / 20 30 10 0
GAGE OK 78 54 79 51 / 40 30 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 80 59 78 55 / 10 50 20 0
DURANT OK 78 55 76 56 / 0 20 20 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
14/23
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1013 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1013 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS
AFTERNOON AND LINGER THEM INTO THIS EVENING...AHEAD OF THE MAIN
BAND OF PRECIP EXPECTED TO MOVE IN LATER TONIGHT. IF RAIN SHOWERS
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON THEY WILL BE ON THE LEADING EDGE OF 850 MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT. THERE IS SOME WEAK ELEVATED CAPE TO WORK WITH
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING RAISING THE CONCERN FOR AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. THE NAM FORECAST SOUNDING FROM KLSE
IS SHOWING AROUND 350 J/KG WHEN LIFTING FROM 850 MB. IF THIS CAPE
IS REALIZED...WE COULD SEE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES. CONFIDENCE IS
LOW ON ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING SO WILL NOT INCLUDE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AT
THIS TIME. THE REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
AT 3 AM...A 1030 MB SURFACE HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER ONTARIO. THIS
HAS PRODUCED LIGHT WINDS ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN AND CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS HAS ALLOWED DENSE
VALLEY FOG TO DEVELOP IN THE WISCONSIN AND KICKAPOO RIVER VALLEYS.
MEANWHILE THE RAP SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE WINDS
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING. HOWEVER WE MAY HAVE JUST ENOUGH TIME TO BUILD A SHALLOW
NOCTURNAL INVERSION THAT MAY ALLOW SOME STRATUS AND SOME PATCHY
VALLEY FOG TO DEVELOP IN THE MISSISSIPPI CHANNEL AND ITS
TRIBUTARIES.
FOR TONIGHT...THE 22.00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THIS RESULTS...IN
MODERATE TO STRONG 900 TO 800 MB FRONTOGENESIS TO DEVELOP ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR AND THERE WILL MODERATE
850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT. OVERALL LIKE THE TIMING OF NMM AND
ARW...SO TRENDED THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TOWARD THEM FOR
TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
ON THURSDAY...THE 22.00Z MODELS ARE VERY SIMILAR WITH THE FASTER
MOVEMENT OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION. THIS RESULT
IN A RAPID DECREASE IN THE 900 TO 800 MB FRONTOGENESIS AND THE
850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT MOVING EAST OF THE AREA BY THE
AFTERNOON. THIS RESULTS IN A QUICK DECREASE IN THE PRECIPITATION
FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS
SEEMS TO BE HANDLED REALLY WELL IN THE ARW AND NMM...SO TRENDED
PRECIPITATION TIMING AND PLACEMENT CLOSER TO THEM. ALSO MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW A RAPID DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER ALONG AND WEST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS PROVIDES A BETTER
OPPORTUNITY THAT WE COULD POTENTIALLY SEE THE PARTIAL SOLAR
ECLIPSE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.
ON FRIDAY...ALL OF THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA. THE NAM
SOUNDINGS HAVE A MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILE AND STRONGER 850 MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT THAN THE GFS...GEM...AND ECMWF. AS A RESULT...
IT GENERATES SHOWERS AND THE OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE DRY. DUE TO
THIS...OPTED TO KEEP THE PERIOD DRY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB 2
TO 4C WARMER THAN THURSDAY. MIXING 875 MB TEMPERATURES TO THE
SURFACE RESULTS IN TEMPERATURES MUCH CLOSER TO THE 22.03Z SREF
THAN THE SUPER BLEND...SO TRENDED THEM MORE TOWARD THE LATTER.
FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG 150 KNOT
200 MB JET ROUNDING THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE. THE 21.12Z NAEFS STANDARDIZED ANOMALY SHOWED THAT A JET
THIS STRONG HAD A RETURN FREQUENCY OF ONCE IN EVERY 5 YEARS. THIS
RESULTS IN A RETROGRESSION OF THIS RIDGE WHICH IN TURN ALLOWS
COOLER 850 MB TEMPERATURES TO MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION. THERE IS
A 6 TO 8C DROP ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN AND 4 TO 6C ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA. DUE TO THIS...LOWERED THE
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ANYWHERE FROM 2 TO 6 DEGREES.
ON SUNDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS THE
AREA AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST INTO THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES. 850 MB TEMPERATURES RISE 6 TO 8C INTO THE 10C TO 14C
RANGE. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 1.8 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL. THE SUPER BLEND LOOKS TOO COLD...SO RAISED THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO THE BIAS CORRECTED GFS AND ECMWF.
FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THE MODELS ARE DIFFERING ON THE
TRACK OF A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION. THE GFS IS MUCH FURTHER THAN EITHER THE ECMWF OR GEM. DUE
TO THIS...STAYED CLOSED TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS FOR TEMPERATURES
AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
GRADIENT STRONG ENOUGH THIS MORNING TO PREVENT FOG FROM FORMING AT
KLSE BUT STILL SEEING SOME IN FAVORED SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN VALLEYS
WITH EAST-WEST ORIENTATION.
MAIN FOCUS FOR AVIATION IS APPROACHING WAVE AND IMPACT ON CEILINGS
TONIGHT AS RAIN MOVES IN. THERE IS A BAND OF HIGHER BASED STRATUS IN
MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION ZONE MOVING ACROSS MINNESOTA THIS
MORNING BUT STILL EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL UNTIL TONIGHT
WHEN SATURATION OCCURS WITH LIFT AND RAIN MOVES IN. RESTRICTIONS TO
VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED...BUT SOME GUIDANCE /22.00Z NAM
AND 22.03Z SREF SUGGESTS MVFR AND PERHAPS LIMITED IFR CEILINGS ARE
POSSIBLE DURING TROUGH PASSAGE. CONFIDENCE NOT GREAT BUT WILL
INTRODUCE CHANCE FOR THAT DURING PEAK OF RAIN PERIODS OVERNIGHT.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WETENKAMP
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...SHEA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
625 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
AT 3 AM...A 1030 MB SURFACE HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER ONTARIO. THIS
HAS PRODUCED LIGHT WINDS ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN AND CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS HAS ALLOWED DENSE
VALLEY FOG TO DEVELOP IN THE WISCONSIN AND KICKAPOO RIVER VALLEYS.
MEANWHILE THE RAP SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE WINDS
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING. HOWEVER WE MAY HAVE JUST ENOUGH TIME TO BUILD A SHALLOW
NOCTURNAL INVERSION THAT MAY ALLOW SOME STRATUS AND SOME PATCHY
VALLEY FOG TO DEVELOP IN THE MISSISSIPPI CHANNEL AND ITS
TRIBUTARIES.
FOR TONIGHT...THE 22.00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THIS RESULTS...IN
MODERATE TO STRONG 900 TO 800 MB FRONTOGENESIS TO DEVELOP ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR AND THERE WILL MODERATE
850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT. OVERALL LIKE THE TIMING OF NMM AND
ARW...SO TRENDED THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TOWARD THEM FOR
TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
ON THURSDAY...THE 22.00Z MODELS ARE VERY SIMILAR WITH THE FASTER
MOVEMENT OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION. THIS RESULT
IN A RAPID DECREASE IN THE 900 TO 800 MB FRONTOGENESIS AND THE
850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT MOVING EAST OF THE AREA BY THE
AFTERNOON. THIS RESULTS IN A QUICK DECREASE IN THE PRECIPITATION
FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS
SEEMS TO BE HANDLED REALLY WELL IN THE ARW AND NMM...SO TRENDED
PRECIPITATION TIMING AND PLACEMENT CLOSER TO THEM. ALSO MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW A RAPID DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER ALONG AND WEST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS PROVIDES A BETTER
OPPORTUNITY THAT WE COULD POTENTIALLY SEE THE PARTIAL SOLAR
ECLIPSE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.
ON FRIDAY...ALL OF THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA. THE NAM
SOUNDINGS HAVE A MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILE AND STRONGER 850 MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT THAN THE GFS...GEM...AND ECMWF. AS A RESULT...
IT GENERATES SHOWERS AND THE OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE DRY. DUE TO
THIS...OPTED TO KEEP THE PERIOD DRY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB 2
TO 4C WARMER THAN THURSDAY. MIXING 875 MB TEMPERATURES TO THE
SURFACE RESULTS IN TEMPERATURES MUCH CLOSER TO THE 22.03Z SREF
THAN THE SUPER BLEND...SO TRENDED THEM MORE TOWARD THE LATTER.
FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG 150 KNOT
200 MB JET ROUNDING THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE. THE 21.12Z NAEFS STANDARDIZED ANOMALY SHOWED THAT A JET
THIS STRONG HAD A RETURN FREQUENCY OF ONCE IN EVERY 5 YEARS. THIS
RESULTS IN A RETROGRESSION OF THIS RIDGE WHICH IN TURN ALLOWS
COOLER 850 MB TEMPERATURES TO MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION. THERE IS
A 6 TO 8C DROP ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN AND 4 TO 6C ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA. DUE TO THIS...LOWERED THE
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ANYWHERE FROM 2 TO 6 DEGREES.
ON SUNDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS THE
AREA AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST INTO THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES. 850 MB TEMPERATURES RISE 6 TO 8C INTO THE 10C TO 14C
RANGE. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 1.8 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL. THE SUPER BLEND LOOKS TOO COLD...SO RAISED THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO THE BIAS CORRECTED GFS AND ECMWF.
FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THE MODELS ARE DIFFERING ON THE
TRACK OF A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION. THE GFS IS MUCH FURTHER THAN EITHER THE ECMWF OR GEM. DUE
TO THIS...STAYED CLOSED TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS FOR TEMPERATURES
AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
GRADIENT STRONG ENOUGH THIS MORNING TO PREVENT FOG FROM FORMING AT
KLSE BUT STILL SEEING SOME IN FAVORED SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN VALLEYS
WITH EAST-WEST ORIENTATION.
MAIN FOCUS FOR AVIATION IS APPROACHING WAVE AND IMPACT ON CEILINGS
TONIGHT AS RAIN MOVES IN. THERE IS A BAND OF HIGHER BASED STRATUS IN
MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION ZONE MOVING ACROSS MINNESOTA THIS
MORNING BUT STILL EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL UNTIL TONIGHT
WHEN SATURATION OCCURS WITH LIFT AND RAIN MOVES IN. RESTRICTIONS TO
VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED...BUT SOME GUIDANCE /22.00Z NAM
AND 22.03Z SREF SUGGESTS MVFR AND PERHAPS LIMITED IFR CEILINGS ARE
POSSIBLE DURING TROUGH PASSAGE. CONFIDENCE NOT GREAT BUT WILL
INTRODUCE CHANCE FOR THAT DURING PEAK OF RAIN PERIODS OVERNIGHT.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...SHEA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
611 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
THE LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A LARGE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM STRETCHING FROM QUEBEC TO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES TO THE GULF COAST. OUTSIDE OF A SMALL AREA OF BROKEN STRATUS
AROUND CHICAGO...CLEAR SKIES EXIST ACROSS THE REGION THANKS TO
STRONG SUBSIDENCE BENEATH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
IS MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND THE NORTHWEST GREAT PLAINS WHERE A
FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE OCCURRING. AS THIS STORM SYSTEM MOVES
EAST...PRECIP CHANCES AND TIMING ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.
TODAY...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES...BUT VERY DRY AIR WILL EXIST THROUGH THE COLUMN.
ALTHOUGH WILL SEE CIRRUS BEGIN TO INVADE THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE STATE DURING THE AFTERNOON...SHOULD SEE SUNNY SKIES
WITH HIGHS A FEW DEGREES WARMER IN MANY LOCATIONS THAN YESTERDAY.
TONIGHT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE.
THE VERY DRY AIR WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD TO START THE EVENING BUT
SHOULD SEE CLOUDS INCREASE MID TO LATE EVENING OVER NORTH-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. MODELS INDICATE
A FEW SHOWERS COULD MOVE INTO NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN AROUND
MIDNIGHT IN THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION REGIME AND LEFT A SMALL
CHANCE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SCENARIO. BUT BETTER CHANCES WILL MOVE
INTO THE ROUTE 39/51 CORRIDOR LATE. THE INCREASING CLOUDS AND
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT CALLS FOR A WARMER NIGHT. LOWS RANGING
FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTHEAST TO AROUND 40 WEST.
THURSDAY...THE SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE STATE. A BAND OF RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT WITH
PRECIP MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE
MORNING AND INTO EASTERN WISCONSIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. VARIOUS
MODELS MOVE THE PRECIP THROUGH THE REGION AT DIFFERENT TIMES (DUE TO
DIFFERENT HANDLING OF THE SPLITTING OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY)...SO THERE
IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO TIMING. REGARDLESS...AS THE RAIN
MOVES INTO MORE STABLE AIR...INTENSITY AND COVERAGE SHOULD GRADUALLY
WANE THROUGH THE DAY. WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCES DURING THE
MORNING CONSEQUENTLY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THE MOST IN EASTERN
WISCONSIN BEFORE THE RAIN ARRIVES AND ADJUSTED TEMPS A BIT.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
SHOWERS WILL EXIT THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT MOVE INTO MICHIGAN. THE NAM
FORECASTS ADDITIONAL SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE MUCH WEAKER
WITH THE SYSTEM AND ARE DRY. LEFT OUT ANY PRECIPITATION FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT. DRY NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
RISING HEIGHTS SHOULD RESULT IN SURFACE TEMPERATURES CLIMBING
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.
SPLIT FLOW FORECAST BY MODELS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
SOME JET ENERGY MOVING BY TO THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
PROVIDING UPPER SUPPORT FOR POSSIBLE ELEVATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF A WARM FRONT. JET ENERGY LIFTING OUT OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS IS FORECAST TO PRODUCE A SYNOPTIC SCALE SYSTEM
LIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE ARE BIG DIFFERENCES IN TRACK AND
INTENSITY BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS RELATED TO THE AMOUNT OF
PHASING WITH NORTHERN STREAM JET ENERGY.
AFTER THAT IT LOOKS LIKE DRY NORTHWEST FLOW RETURNS FOR THE MIDDLE
AND END OF NEXT WEEK WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. OVERALL IT
LOOKS LIKE A SEASONABLE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NOVEMBER
WITH MODERATE AMPLITUDE PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 610 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
GOOD FLYING WEATHER WILL BE PRESENT TODAY ACROSS THE REGION THANKS
TO CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT
FROM WEST TO EAST. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR...BUT ANTICIPATE CIGS
WILL BE FALLING BETWEEN 5000-8000 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. LIGHT RAIN MAY
BE PUSHING INTO CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN AROUND THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......MPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
1000 AM MST WED OCT 22 2014
.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS WITH MUCH
WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY. NEAR RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.
DRY CONDITIONS WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL THEN OCCUR EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS SE AZ THIS MORNING EXCEPT
FOR A FEW CUMULOFORM CLOUDS OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. 22/12Z KTWC
SOUNDING TOTAL PRECIP WATER VALUE WAS 0.69 INCH...A DECREASE OF
NEARLY 0.10 INCH VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO. THE SOUNDING YIELDED A
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT...WITH LIFTED INDEX OF MINUS 1 AND
UNMODIFIED SBCAPE OF 682 J/KG. LIGHT TO MODERATE NWLY/NLY FLOW
PREVAILED ABOVE 700 MB.
MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDED FROM NERN NEW MEXICO SWWD ACROSS THE
BOOTHEEL OF NEW MEXICO...AND CONTINUED SWWD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF
CALIFORNIA AT THIS TIME. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WAS CENTERED
WELL WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA SPUR NEAR 25N/130W. THE MID-LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE WELL SE OF THE AREA BY TONIGHT. 22/12Z NAM/GFS
DEPICTS JUST ENOUGH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE TO SUPPORT SOME CUMULOFORM
CLOUDS MOSTLY ACROSS ERN SECTIONS LATER TODAY. 22/14Z RUC HRRR
DEPICTED PRECIP-FREE CONDITIONS TO OCCUR TODAY...WITH ANY PRECIP
ECHOES OF CONSEQUENCE TO BE EAST OF THIS FORECAST AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL THEN AMPLIFY OVER THE SWRN CONUS THUR-FRI.
THE UPPER HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA SAT IN RESPONSE TO A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH ENTERING THE WEST COAST. INCREASING HEIGHTS/
THICKNESSES WILL SUPPORT A STRONG WARMING TREND UNDER GENERALLY
CLEAR SKIES...AND RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR SOME LOCALES
THUR-SAT. THE INHERITED OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR TUCSON DEPICTS 94
DEGS F FOR FRI/SAT. THE LATEST DATE FOR 95 DEGS F RECORDED AT THE
TUCSON INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT IS OCTOBER 26, 1934 AND 2001.
THE UPPER HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA SAT IN RESPONSE TO A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH ENTERING THE WEST COAST. HAVE NOTED THAT THE 22/12Z
GFS DEPICTED A SOMEWHAT SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
TO OCCUR SAT ASSOCIATED WITH SWLY FLOW ALOFT. HAVE ALSO NOTED THAT
THE GFS PRODUCED A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF QPF/S JUST WEST AND NORTH OF
THIS FORECAST AREA. WILL ADDRESS THE NOTION OF INTRODUCING SOME
SPRINKLES WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE FOR SAT.
THEREAFTER...22/12Z GFS AND 21/00Z ECMWF WERE SIMILAR WITH DEPICTING
THE WEST COAST TROUGH TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE SWRN CONUS SUN. THE
MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL THEN MOVE EWD INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS
PLAINS MON...AND INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION TUE. THE
MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS TROUGH WILL BE SOME INCREASE IN WLY/SWLY WINDS
SUN FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPS MON.
AS NOTED ABOVE...A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR TODAY THRU FRI FOLLOWED
BY NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN DAYTIME TEMPS SAT. HIGH TEMPS FRI-SAT
WILL GENERALLY BE ABOUT 10 DEGS F ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER...SOME
LOCALES MAY EXPERIENCE EVEN WARMER TEMPS. COOLER TEMPS ASSOCIATED
WITH DECREASING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES WILL THEN OCCUR SUN FOLLOWED BY
AN ADDITIONAL 5-8 DEGS F OR SO OF COOLING MON. EXPECT AN ADDITIONAL
2-5 DEGS F OF COOLING TO OCCUR TUE.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 23/18Z.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL START TO BUILD OVER SOUTHEAST ARIZONA TODAY
AND CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH FRIDAY. EXPECT A FEW TO SCATTERED
CUMULUS CLOUDS AROUND 8-12K FT AGL MAINLY NEAR THE MOUNTAINS EAST OF
KTUS TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES WITH SURFACE WIND GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10 KTS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RESULT IN DRY
CONDITIONS WITH A WARMING TREND THROUGH SATURDAY. SOME COOLING WILL
THEN OCCUR SUNDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA.
THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING SOME GUSTY WEST WINDS SUNDAY FOLLOWED
BY GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE UPPER GILA VALLEY. EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
TRENDING CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
FRANCIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
612 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH PERIODS OF
RAINFALL. THE STEADIEST RAIN LOOKS TO OCCUR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME SUN ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 610 PM EDT...BOTH A SFC LOW AND A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
SITUATED JUST OFF THE DELMARVA REGION. THIS SYSTEM IS SLOWLY
DRIFTING TOWARDS THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND
THIS SYSTEM IS BRINGING PLENTY OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE UP AND AROUND
THE UPPER LOW AND INTO NEW ENGLAND. SOME SHOWERS HAVE MOVED FROM
EAST TO WEST ACROSS OUR AREA LATE THIS AFTN...AND THIS LOOKS TO
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WELL. 850 HPA
EASTERLY WIND ANOMALIES REACH 3-5 STD ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE
TONIGHT...SHOWING AN IMPRESSIVE PUSH OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM AN EASTERLY DIRECTION. BOTH OUR
LOCAL HIRESWRF AND THE 3KM HRRR SHOW THE SHOWERS EVOLVING INTO A
STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL BY LATE TONIGHT. SFC WINDS WILL
BE OUT OF THE NORTH AT AROUND 10 MPH...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS IN
THE HUDSON VALLEY...AS AIR IS FUNNELED DOWN BETWEEN THE TERRAIN.
RAINFALL WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT IN INTENSITY...ALTHOUGH A FEW
BRIEF PERIODS OF MORE MODERATE RAINFALL CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
WITH CLOUDY AND DANK CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...TEMPS WON/T DROP OFF
TOO MUCH FROM THEIR CURRENT READINGS. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO
MAINLY BE IN THE 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ON THURSDAY...THE STACKED LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE FROM JUST
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND TO SOUTH OF CAPE COD. THE CYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF CLOUDS
ACROSS OUR AREA. PERIODS OF STEADY RAINFALL EARLY IN THE DAY WILL
TURN INTO SHOWERS TOWARDS EVENING. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOL
DUE TO THE CLOUDS/RAIN...WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S...WARMEST IN SOUTHERN AREAS.
THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...AS THE LOW SLOWLY LIFTS TOWARDS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AND WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM. THE
STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
TOWARDS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT THERE STILL WILL BE SOME
SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME. IT LOOKS TO REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY AS
WELL...AS THERE WILL BE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. LOWS
ON THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...AND HIGHS
ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.
CLOUDS MAY FINALLY START TO BREAK UP ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN
AREAS. MIN TEMPS ON FRI NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY INITIALLY UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS DURING THE WEEKEND BEFORE IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR THE
START OF NEXT WEEK.
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE COASTAL LOW AND DEEP
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXITING NORTHEAST TO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...WITH THE FORECAST AREA UNDERNEATH A NORTHWEST FLOW
REGIME. A POTENT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL QUICKLY DIVE
SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN CANADA IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW SATURDAY AND
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST
OF THE CAPITAL REGION TO FAVORABLE UPSLOPE AREAS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. ENOUGH FORCING LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE TO MENTION WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION. SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO THE DAY SUNDAY AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND FOR THE START OF
NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHTS
RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION. DRY WEATHER AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY ALONG WITH SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS POTENTIALLY REACHING 70 ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY.
LONG TERM GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE HANDLING THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT THAT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE
COUNTRY AND MOVE EAST DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTION OF NEXT
WEEK. HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES...WITH THE 12Z GFS BEING
SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER THAN THE 12Z ECMWF DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF SLOWS THE FRONTAL
PROGRESSION AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THE WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE MID-HUDSON
VALLEY...BEFORE WARMING FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK INTO THE MID 50S
TO MID 60S ACROSS THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SPRAWLING COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF THE
DELMARVA WILL PROVIDE A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
AS WE GO THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...ALL TAF SITES WILL EXPERIENCE VCSH
TO AT TIMES -RA CONDITIONS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY BEGINS TO
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE...ESPECIALLY
AS WE GO PAST 00Z THURSDAY. AT THE BEGINNING OF THE TAF
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FOR KALB/KPOU/KGFL ALONG THE HUDSON
VALLEY...NORTHERLY WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 20 KNOTS. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE
TO NEAR 10 KNOTS AS WE GO INTO THE OVERNIGHT. AS WE GO PAST 06Z
THURSDAY...SOME OF THE SAME AREAS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY COULD
EXPERIENCE LOW CEILINGS AND MORE PERSISTENT RAINFALL WITH IFR
CONDITIONS. IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
PAST 12Z WITH LOW CEILINGS BEING THE MAIN IMPACT. NORTHERLY WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW AFTER 12Z TO THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD FOR ALL TAF SITES
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS DUE TO A SLOW MOVING COASTAL LOW. PERIODS OF RAINFALL WILL
OCCUR AS WELL...ESP TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. AS A RESULT...RH VALUES
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED...MAINLY OVER 70 PERCENT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 5 TO 15 MPH OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
PERIODS OF RAINFALL WILL OCCUR THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. THE RAIN MAY BRIEFLY FALL MODERATE
IN INTENSITY AT TIMES. THROUGH FRIDAY...ABOUT AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF
RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY UP TO TWO INCHES ACROSS THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS IN SOUTHERN VERMONT.
DUE TO RECENT DRY WEATHER...THIS RAINFALL IS RATHER BENEFICIAL TO
THE REGION. THERE MAY BE SOME RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO
RIVER FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. THERE MAY BE SOME
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS OR FIELDS...OR IN POOR DRAINAGE
LOCATIONS...BUT THIS SHOULD BE RATHER MINIMAL IN IMPACT.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...LFM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
400 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH PERIODS OF
RAINFALL. THE STEADIEST RAIN LOOKS TO OCCUR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME SUN ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT...BOTH A SFC LOW AND A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
SITUATED JUST OFF THE VIRGINA CAPES/DELMARVA. THIS SYSTEM IS
SLOWLY DRIFTING TOWARDS THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. THE CYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND THIS SYSTEM IS BRINGING PLENTY OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE UP AND
AROUND THE UPPER LOW AND INTO NEW ENGLAND. SOME SHOWERS HAVE MOVED
FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS OUR AREA LATE THIS AFTN...AND THIS LOOKS
TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WELL. 850 HPA
EASTERLY WIND ANOMALIES REACH 3-5 STD ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE TONIGHT...SHOWING
AN IMPRESSIVE PUSH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM AN
EASTERLY DIRECTION. BOTH OUR LOCAL HIRESWRF AND THE 3KM HRRR SHOW
THE SHOWERS EVOLVING INTO A STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL BY
LATE TONIGHT. SFC WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH AT AROUND 10
MPH...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...AS AIR IS
FUNNELED DOWN BETWEEN THE TERRAIN. RAINFALL WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT IN INTENSITY...ALTHOUGH A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF MORE MODERATE
RAINFALL CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
WITH CLOUDY AND DANK CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...TEMPS WON/T DROP OFF
TOO MUCH FROM THEIR CURRENT READINGS. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO
MAINLY BE IN THE 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ON THURSDAY...THE STACKED LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE FROM JUST
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND TO SOUTH OF CAPE COD. THE CYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF CLOUDS
ACROSS OUR AREA. PERIODS OF STEADY RAINFALL EARLY IN THE DAY WILL
TURN INTO SHOWERS TOWARDS EVENING. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOL
DUE TO THE CLOUDS/RAIN...WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S...WARMEST IN SOUTHERN AREAS.
THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...AS THE LOW SLOWLY LIFTS TOWARDS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AND WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM. THE
STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
TOWARDS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT THERE STILL WILL BE SOME
SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME. IT LOOKS TO REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY AS
WELL...AS THERE WILL BE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. LOWS
ON THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...AND HIGHS
ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.
CLOUDS MAY FINALLY START TO BREAK UP ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN
AREAS. MIN TEMPS ON FRI NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY INITIALLY UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS DURING THE WEEKEND BEFORE IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR THE
START OF NEXT WEEK.
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE COASTAL LOW AND DEEP
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXITING NORTHEAST TO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...WITH THE FORECAST AREA UNDERNEATH A NORTHWEST FLOW
REGIME. A POTENT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL QUICKLY DIVE
SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN CANADA IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW SATURDAY AND
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST
OF THE CAPITAL REGION TO FAVORABLE UPSLOPE AREAS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. ENOUGH FORCING LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE TO MENTION WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION. SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO THE DAY SUNDAY AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND FOR THE START OF
NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHTS
RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION. DRY WEATHER AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY ALONG WITH SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS POTENTIALLY REACHING 70 ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY.
LONG TERM GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE HANDLING THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT THAT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE
COUNTRY AND MOVE EAST DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTION OF NEXT
WEEK. HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES...WITH THE 12Z GFS BEING
SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER THAN THE 12Z ECMWF DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF SLOWS THE FRONTAL
PROGRESSION AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THE WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE MID-HUDSON
VALLEY...BEFORE WARMING FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK INTO THE MID 50S
TO MID 60S ACROSS THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SPRAWLING COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF THE
DELMARVA WILL PROVIDE A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
AS WE GO THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...ALL TAF SITES WILL EXPERIENCE VCSH
TO AT TIMES -RA CONDITIONS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY BEGINS TO
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE...ESPECIALLY
AS WE GO PAST 00Z THURSDAY. AT THE BEGINNING OF THE TAF
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FOR KALB/KPOU/KGFL ALONG THE HUDSON
VALLEY...NORTHERLY WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 20 KNOTS. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE
TO NEAR 10 KNOTS AS WE GO INTO THE OVERNIGHT. AS WE GO PAST 06Z
THURSDAY...SOME OF THE SAME AREAS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY COULD
EXPERIENCE LOW CEILINGS AND MORE PERSISTENT RAINFALL WITH IFR
CONDITIONS. IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
PAST 12Z WITH LOW CEILINGS BEING THE MAIN IMPACT. NORTHERLY WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW AFTER 12Z TO THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD FOR ALL TAF SITES
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS DUE TO A SLOW MOVING COASTAL LOW. PERIODS OF RAINFALL WILL
OCCUR AS WELL...ESP TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. AS A RESULT...RH VALUES
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED...MAINLY OVER 70 PERCENT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 5 TO 15 MPH OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
PERIODS OF RAINFALL WILL OCCUR THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. THE RAIN MAY BRIEFLY FALL MODERATE
IN INTENSITY AT TIMES. THROUGH FRIDAY...ABOUT AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF
RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY UP TO TWO INCHES ACROSS THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS IN SOUTHERN VERMONT.
DUE TO RECENT DRY WEATHER...THIS RAINFALL IS RATHER BENEFICIAL TO
THE REGION. THERE MAY BE SOME RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO
RIVER FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. THERE MAY BE SOME
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS OR FIELDS...OR IN POOR DRAINAGE
LOCATIONS...BUT THIS SHOULD BE RATHER MINIMAL IN IMPACT.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...LFM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
355 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE CLEAR OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF
MICHIGAN AND INDIANA. CLOUDS OVER EASTERN AREAS WILL SLOWLY ERODE
THIS EVENING LEAVING BEHIND PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL REACH THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014
DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA AND RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER
CONDITIONS...A FEW WEATHER ISSUES DO PERSIST WITH RESPECT TO CLOUD
COVER AND TEMPERATURES TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY TELLS THE STORY WITH STRATUS DECK STILL
LINGERING OVER EASTERN HALF OF FORECAST AREA AS OF 18Z. SOME SLOW
EROSION HAS BEEN NOTED OVER WESTERN EDGE AND SOME CLEARING
APPROACHING FROM NORTHEAST PER LIGHT NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL WINDS.
MODELS REMAIN RATHER PERSISTENT THAT AREA OF STRATUS WILL CONTINUE
TO THIN AND DISSIPATE THIS EVENING PER HRRR RH AND TOTAL CLOUD COVER
PLOTS ALONG WITH LATEST RAP13 RH FIELDS IN THE 900-850MB LAYERS.
CONCERN THOUGH LIES WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH
A RATHER STOUT LOW LEVEL INVERSION. 925-850MB THERMAL RIDGE REMAINS
OVER EASTERN IL AND WESTERN IN THROUGH THE NIGHT ALONG WITH 500MB
RIDGE AXIS. TYPICALLY STRATUS EROSION DOES NOT OCCUR UNTIL PASSAGE
OF THESE FEATURES. HOWEVER...SOUNDINGS SHOW A VERY DRY AIRMASS
SITTING ATOP VERY THIN LAYER OF CLOUDS AND INCREASING SUBSIDENCE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY CONTINUE TO ERODE THE CLOUD DECK
AS ADVERTISED. HAVE CONTINUED TO SLOW THE EROSION IN THE SKY COVER
GRIDS BUT DID KEEP THE OPTIMISTIC ATTITUDE IN ORDER TO MATCH
SURROUNDING SITES FOR A MORE CONSISTENT LOOKING FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES TO BE IMPACTED SIGNIFICANTLY IF THESE CLOUDS DO HOLD ON
THROUGH THE NIGHT. FOR NOW STAYED WITH PERSISTENCE AND OPTIMISTIC
FORECAST WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE LOWER AND MID 30S. PREVIOUS
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN THE BEST PERFORMING GUIDANCE OVER THE LAST
WEEK...15 DAYS AND 30 DAYS SO WILL RIDE WITH THAT. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW A VERY MOIST SHALLOW LAYER NEAR SURFACE UNDER
STRONG INVERSION WITH VERY DRY AIR ALOFT AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH A
DEEP COLUMN. THIS USUALLY AN IDEAL SETUP FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT SO
ADDED PATCHY FOG TO GRIDS.
EXPECT THURSDAY TO REMAIN DRY AHEAD OF NEXT WEAK SHORT WAVE WITH
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS IN THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. RAWBLEND
GUIDANCE PERFORMING BEST WITH MID TO UPPER 50S EXPECTED FOR HIGHS.
&&
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT WAS LAGGING BEHIND LOWER LEVELS...WITH QUESTIONABLE
SATURATION THROUGH THE CLOUD LAYER. REFINED THE TIMING OF THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS GIVEN THE LATEST MODEL EXPECTATIONS. VERY LITTLE
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM GIVEN LIMITED SATURATION...
WEAK LIFT AND LACK OF MOISTURE. A BACK DOOR TYPE OF FRONT SHOULD
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND BECOME STATIONARY NEAR OR OVER
THE FORECAST AREA. KEPT THE FORECAST DRY GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE AND
LIMITED LOW LEVEL FORCING ALONG THE FRONT. LOWERED HIGHS SUNDAY INTO
THE 50S NORTHEAST OF THE FRONT. THERE WAS MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. FAVOR THE GFS WHICH HAS
BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY THAN THE ECMWF WITH THE BEST CHANCE
FOR RAIN ABOUT TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014
KSBN EXPECTED TO BE CLEAR INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT SOME MVFR BR
POSSIBLE LATE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CROSS OVER TEMPS BEING REACHED.
KFWA REMAINS ON EDGE OF SLOW ERODING STRATUS. MVFR CIGS THIS
AFTERNOON GIVING WAY TO CLEARING SKIES. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW FOG
POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT WITH MOISTENING LOW LEVELS...LIGHT WINDS AND DRY
AIR ALOFT. THIS COULD TURN INTO REDEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS BUT
EXPECTING THE DRY AIR ALOFT TO LIMIT FORMATION TO NEAR SURFACE AND
THUS FOG.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...LASHLEY
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...LASHLEY
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1200 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
...UPDATE TO AVIATION...
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 845 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
UPDATED THE NEAR TERM GRIDS TO BETTER REFLECT WSR-88D TRENDS WITH A
PREFERENCE TO THE HRRR SOLUTION. HIGH BASED SHOWERS AROUND THE REGION
IN RESPONSE TO 305 KELVIN ISENTROPIC LIFT. CLOUDS BASES ARE RELATIVELY
HIGH (8-12KFT), SO EXPECT VERY LITTLE, IF ANY PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATION.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 137 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
TODAY WILL START OUT WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS, AND WITH MILD SOUTH
WINDS AROUND 12 TO 14 MPH. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS HEADING TOWARD
SOUTHWEST KANSAS FROM THE WEST. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE
INTRODUCED IN THE WEST BY 17Z, WITH POPS MOVING EAST THROUGH THE
DAY. THERE DOES NOT SEEM TO BE ENOUGH CAPE OR BULK SHEAR TO
WARRANT ANY SEVERE STORMS. THE HIGHEST POP CHANCES WILL BE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON, RANGING FROM 45 TO 54 PERCENT IN OUR EASTERN
ZONES. I RAN THE QPF_FM_POP TOOL, AND THEN INCREASED QPF IN OUR
EASTERN TIER OF COUNTIES TO NEAR 0.10 FROM 00Z TO 06Z, TO BETTER
MATCH UP WITH OUR EASTERN NEIGHBORS.
THIS WAVE IS RATHER FAST MOVING, AND THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
END IN THE WEST BY 00Z, AND ACROSS MY EASTERN ZONES BY 12Z THURSDAY.
WINDS WILL PICK UP BY NOON TODAY AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH,
AND SHOULD BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH GUSTING TO 25
MPH. WINDS WILL THEN RECEDE AFTER THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH PASSES
THIS EVENING, AND RETURN TO A SOUTHEAST DIRECTION AT 10 MPH OR SO.
AS FOR HIGHS TODAY, THEY WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER TO MID 70S IN THE
WEST AROUND SYRACUSE TO THE UPPER 70S IN THE SOUTHEAST NEAR MEDICINE
LODGE.
TONIGHT SHOULD START CLEARING OUT FAIRLY EARLY ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN
KANSAS. WITH WINDS GOING LIGHT AND WITH THE FRESH PRECIP ON THE
GROUND, THERE COULD BE SOME RATHER THICK FOG FORM TOWARDS MORNING.
FOR NOW, HAVE PLACED AREAS OF 1/2 MILE VISIBILITIES DUE TO FOG IN
OUR NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AFTER 09Z. JUST HOW FAR SOUTH THE
NEAR-DENSE FOG WILL DEVELOP IS UP FOR QUESTION. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WERE NOT CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, AND
SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S RANGE.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD AND SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE
PLAINS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS
SHOULD SUPPRESS ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FROM FORMING OVER WESTERN
KANSAS WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION DURING THIS PERIOD AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
SITS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES
OUT OF THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND INTO THE PLAINS. THIS FEATURE
WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
UPPER 70S WITH LOW TO MID 80S EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND.
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF WEST CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE UPPER 40S WILL BE POSSIBLE. COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS MONDAY AROUND 70 DEGREES AND
HIGHS IN THE 60 ON TUESDAY. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 40
DEGREES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
CIGS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE VFR. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. MODELS SHOWING THAT KHYS IS MOST LIKELY TO BE
AN IMPACTED TERMINAL WITH THIS ACTIVITY. LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS FOR KGCK/KHYS
AND WITH MVFR AT KDDC TOMORROW MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH BR AND REDUCED
VIS. NOT TOTALLY CONFIDENT ON THE AREAL EXTENT ACROSS THE TERMINALS
FOR THIS TAF ISSUANCE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 75 52 77 54 / 50 40 0 0
GCK 76 49 77 50 / 30 20 0 0
EHA 74 49 79 52 / 20 10 0 0
LBL 74 52 79 52 / 40 20 0 0
HYS 75 51 74 52 / 60 40 0 0
P28 79 56 80 55 / 40 40 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SUGDEN
SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...SUGDEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
411 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER RIDGE FROM THE THE
SRN MS VALLEY THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES AND AN UPSTREAM TROUGH
FROM SASK INTO THE WRN PLAINS. AT THE SFC...SRLY FLOW WAS INCREASING
THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY WRN UPPER MI AS THE SFC RIDGE SHIFTS OFF
TO THE EAST INTO LOWER MI. VIS LOOP SHOWED SOME PATCHY MID CLOUDS
STREAMING INTO SW UPPER MI WITH CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REST OF THE
CWA.
TONIGHT AND WED...MDLS WERE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT BRINGING THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH INTO TO WRN MN BY 12Z/THU AND WRN UPPER MI BY 00Z/FRI.
EVEN THROUGH THERE MAY SEVERAL SEPARATE SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE
TROUGH...THE MODELS HAVE ALSO TRENDED TOWARD BRINGING ONE OF THE
STRONGER SHRTWVS TOWARD THE CWA. THE MODERATE 700-300MB QVECTOR CONV
ALONG WITH SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE INFLOW (PWAT REACHES AOA 1.0 INCH OR
220 PCT OF NORMAL)WILL BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LIKELY POPS THROUGH THE
AREA BY THU AFTERNOON. THE PCPN MAY BE DELAYED AT THE ONSET AS THE
SFC-800 MB DRY LAYER PERSISTS UNTIL THE STRONGER DYNAMICS ARRIVE
INTO W UPPER MI LATE TONIGHT AND CENTRL UPPER MI BY AROUND 18Z.
RELATIVELY LIGHT QPF OF 0.2 INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED GIVEN THE
MODEST DYNAMICS AND PROGRESSIVE PATTERN.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014
GIVEN THE SIGNIFICANT LOSS OF THE SATELLITE INGEST INTO THE
NUMERICAL MODELS /WITH NESDIS SATELLITE COMMS ISSUES CAUSING MISSING
OR OLD IMAGES ON WEB PAGES/...UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FCST SOLUTIONS
MAY BE HIGHER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS PERIOD. THIS HAS BEEN THE CASE
SINCE THE 22/00Z RUNS. AT THIS TIME...THERE IS NO DETAILS ON WHEN
THE ISSUE WILL BE FIXED.
EXPECT LINGERING SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT THE E PROGRESSION OF
ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN WILL BE LIMITED. A SFC RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER E
LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH LAKE HURON THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. WITH LIGHT
S WINDS AND 850MB TEMPS RISING TO 8-11C...HIGHS ON FRIDAY COULD BE
IN THE LOW 60S OVER THE W HALF OF THE CWA.
THE NEXT SFC LOW OVER OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL CROSS MANITOBA ON FRIDAY...AND N-CENTRAL ONTARIO FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL NEAR THE NE PORTIONS
OF THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT.
AS THE SFC HIGH WILL QUICKLY PUSH IN FROM THE N PLAINS AND MID MS
VALLEY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...AS THE LOW EXITS INTO ONTARIO AND THE
NEW ENGLAND STATES. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. THE
MAIN WEATHER FEATURE WILL BE INCREASING WNW WINDS ON SATURDAY...WITH
GUSTS NEARING 25-35MPH /STRONGEST NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AND ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN/. INCREASED WINDS A BIT EARLIER THAN OUR PREVIOUS
FCST FOR SATURDAY.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN AT THE SFC. FCST MODELS ARE STILL CONSISTENT WITH
AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM S CENTRAL CANADA
THROUGH THE S PLAINS STATES AT 12Z MONDAY TO CROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BEFORE EXITING INTO ONTARIO.
WHETHER OR NOT A SFC TROUGH LINGERS BEHIND THE LOW INTO WEDNESDAY IS
STILL IN QUESTION...LEADING TO A LOW CONFIDENCE FCST STILL FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON ON. NEXT WEDNESDAY IS A COMPLETE TOSS UP...WITH
850MB TEMPS OFF THE 12Z RUNS RANGING FROM -5C TO 3C. WILL ADD A
SMALL MENTION OF SNOW SHOWERS IN N-NW FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. THERE
MAY NOT BE ENOUGH PRECIP IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT...AS A SECONDARY
LOW WRAPS NEARS FROM THE MID MS VALLEY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 147 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014
SOME LINGERING MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY AT KSAW ARE EXPECTED TO GIVE
WAY TO VFR AS DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING CONTINUES.
THEN FOR TONIGHT...SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD EAST TOWARDS
WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING AND WILL BE SCATTERED ACROSS
THAT AREA TONIGHT. KIWD SHOULD HAVE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR
RAIN...BUT KCMX COULD ALSO SEE SOME SHOWERS IN THE AREA. CEILINGS
FOR KIWD/KCMX SHOULD STAY AT VFR AND POTENTIALLY FALL TO MVFR TOWARD
DAYBREAK AND THEN INTO THE MVFR RANGE THU MORNING. INCREASING SRLY
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION OVERNIGHT MAY BRING SOME LOWER CLOUDS
BACK INTO KSAW. HOWEVER..CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH REGARD TO POTENTIAL
FOR LIFR CIGS OR LOWER. SO...MENTIONED CIGS JUST ABOVE IFR.
FINALLY...A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET NOSING INTO FAR WESTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN WILL LEAD TO LLWS AT KIWD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 410 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014
SRLY WINDS WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE DEPARTS THE AREA AND A TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WIND GUSTS
DURING THIS TIME SHOULD STAY AOB 20KTS. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ON FRIDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT SWEEPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
ON FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO
30KTS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION FOR SUNDAY AND DIMINISH WINDS BELOW 20KTS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
345 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
FAIRLY STOUT SE WINDS OUT THERE TODAY IN RESPONSE TO THE TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A 1028MB HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND A
1002 MB LOW OVER CENTRAL MANITOBA. AT 3 PM...A SFC TROUGH EXTENDED
FROM NEAR DEVILS LAKE SOUTH TO MITCHEL AND DOWN TO THE CENTRAL
NEB/KS BORDER. JUST WEST OF THIS SFC FEATURE THERE IS A NEGATIVELY
TILTED SHORT WAVE THAT HAS A NICE PUSH OF DRY AIR ON WATER VAPOR
MOVING ACROSS THE WRN DAKOTAS. IT IS THIS UPPER WAVE THAT WILL BE
THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF A LINE OF SHOWERS THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD A PRETTY GOOD HANDEL ON THIS
PRECIP BAND...WITH THE MAIN CHANGE TODAY BEING TO SHRINK THE WIDTH
OF THE BAND OF CATEGORICAL POPS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. THIS MEANT
SLOWING DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIP BY A COUPLE OF HOURS...WHILE
SPEEDING UP FURTHER ITS DEPARTURE FROM WEST TO EAST THRU THU
MORNING. DID REMOVE THE THUNDER MENTION AS WELL AS BEST LI/S ARE
PEGGED TO BE BARELY BELOW ZERO...WITH SPC SREF CALIBRATED
THUNDERSTORM PROBS LOOKING MEAGER AS WELL. A FEW FOLKS WILL
UNDOUBTEDLY HEAR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO...BUT WOULD RATHER NOT
SPREAD THUNDER WORDING ACROSS A LARGE CHUNK OF THE AREA TO COVER A
FEW FLASHES OF LIGHTNING. LESS CONVECTION ALSO MEANS LOWER RAINFALL
RATES...SO DID CUT BACK ON QPF AMOUNTS SOME...WITH AMOUNTS ACROSS
THE AREA NOW GENERALLY A TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH.
WE WILL SEE PRETTY AGGRESSIVE CLEARING BEHIND THE RAIN BAND
TONIGHT...SO WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP ON EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO
DEVELOP. WINDS WILL GO LIGHT...BUT NOT COMPLETELY CALM...SO THIS MAY
HELP LIMIT THE FOG DEVELOPMENT. AT THE MOMENT...THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR FOG LOOKS TO EXIST FROM MANKATO UP THROUGH ST. CLOUD
GIVEN EXPECTED TIMING OF THE CLEARING AND THE PLACEMENT OF THE SFC
TROUGH LATE TONIGHT. AFTER THAT...A BEAUTIFUL THURSDAY WILL UNFOLD
AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF TONIGHTS SHORTWAVE WILL HELP
CLEAR THE SKIES OUT. WILL SEE WRLY WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND TONIGHTS SFC
TROUGH AS WELL...WITH A NICE CHINOOK WIND EXPECTED ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS. FAVORED HIGHS THURSDAY TOWARD THE BIAS CORRECTED
GUIDANCE...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S OUT AROUND
MADISON...WITH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 20 DEGREES COOLER OVER TOWARD
LADYSMITH...WHERE MORE CLOUD COVER INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WILL
HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
TWO SIGNIFICANT CHGS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. FIRST...DUE TO THE
SLOWER MODEL SOLUTION OF THE NORTHEASTERN STORM SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS SUNDAY ARE MORE LIKELY VS. THE
EXPECTED 70 DEGREE HIGH PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THUS...DUE TO THE
SLOWER SOLUTION...A STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
SATURDAY WILL HOLD BACK THE COLDER AIR ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. IN
ADDITION...MORNING LOWS SUNDAY AROUND 40 WILL HOLD DOWN AFTN TEMPS
AS CLDS BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE S/SW. THE SECOND CHG IS RELATED
TO THE PHASING OF THE SOUTHERN/NORTHERN JETS WHICH LEADS TO
PRECIPITATION CHC/S ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES
OUT OF THE ROCKIES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ONE OF THE MAIN WX INFLUENCES OVER THE NEXT WEEK IS THE CONSISTENT
FAST/PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. THE MOST ACTIVE WX WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST AND PACIFIC NW/NORTHERN ROCKIES. IN BETWEEN...PROBLEMS
EXIST DUE TO THE PHASING OF THE UPPER JETS. WILL REMAIN OPTIMISTIC
WITH A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION TO THE
UNSETTLED PATTERN...TEMPS WILL LIKELY DROP TO NEAR NORMAL AS THE
MAIN UPPER JET CORE AND THICKNESS VALUES LOWER ACROSS THE NORTHERN
U.S. LATEST GFS STILL HAS A POTENT WX SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AROUND HALLOWEEN. THICKNESS VALUES AND ASSOCIATED WET-BULB
MEAN LAYER /1KM/ TEMPS ARE NEAR 0 TO +2C...LEADING TO SOME
PRECIPITATION TYPE PROBLEMS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 140 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
MAIN CONCERN FOR 18Z TAFS WAS TIMING SHOWERS IN THIS EVENING.
TIMED THINGS IN BASED ON THE HRRR AND OTHER HI-RES MODELS...WHICH
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER. TRIED NARROWING SHRA
WINDOW DOWN TO 3 OR 4 HOURS...WITH ONLY CHANGE IN TIMING BEING TO
SLOW DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF SHRA BY A COUPLE OF HOURS. WE WILL LIKELY
SEE ISO THUNDER WITH THE BAND OF SHRA...AS WE HAVE SEEN ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS TODAY...BUT COVERAGE/DURATION NOT EXPECTED TO BE ENOUGH
TO MENTION IN A TAF FOR NOW. MVFR CIGS WILL BEGIN TO EXPAND WITH
THE RAIN SHOWERS...WITH THE HRRR SHOWING CIGS COMING DOWN TO
BETWEEN 012 AND 020 WITH THE RAIN. SKIES WILL BE CLEARING OUT
PRETTY QUICK FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...WITH WINDS BACKING OFF
CONSIDERABLY. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG WEST
OF THE TWIN CITIES...WITH STC LOOKING TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF
FOGGING IN THU MORNING.
KMSP...
IF ANYTHING...CURRENT TAF IS AN HOUR OR SO TO FAST WITH BRINGING
PRECIP IN THIS EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE SHRA IMPACTING
MSP TONIGHT...BUT LESS CONFIDENCE ON THE MVFR CIGS. MVFR CIGS MOST
LIKELY WITHIN THE RAIN BAND...BUT LESS CONFIDENCE IN IF THOSE CIGS
WILL CONTINUE FOR A TIME INTO THE EARLY MORNING WHEN THE RAIN
ENDS. AFTER THAT...NO WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE REST OF THURSDAY.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WINDS SSW AT 5-10KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS NW AT 10-15KTS.
SUN...CHC MVFR/-SHRA OVERNIGHT. WINDS SE AT 10-15KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...MPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
202 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A NICE CIRCULATION
CURRENTLY MOVING NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN FROM
NORTHERN MONTANA. COUPLING THIS IMAGE WITH RAP ANALYZED 500H
INDICATES THE PRESENCE OF A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
THIS FEATURE HAS PRODUCED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT
ACROSS COLORADO...WESTERN NEBRASKA...WYOMING...MONTANA...AND
EXTREME WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE IN A
GENERAL ENE DIRECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WILL BRING RAINFALL
TO MOST OF THE CWA.
THIS MORNING...HI-RES GUIDANCE HAD BEEN INDICATING AN AREA OF
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY THIS MORNING
AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH. THE HOPWRF STILL INDICATES THIS
POTENTIAL...AS DO THE NMM AND ARW. THE HRRR HOWEVER...DROPPED THIS
IDEA FROM ITS EARLIER RUNS AND MAY BE ON TO SOMETHING GIVEN THE
LATEST RADAR TRENDS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. STILL...KEPT A LOW POP
MENTION FROM WESTERN MN AND NORTH AND WEST OF ST. CLOUD THROUGH
THE MORNING.
THE MAIN PRECIPITATION BAND WILL COME TOGETHER OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS ACROSS THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS AS A CONTINUATION OF THE ACTIVITY
SEEN OVERNIGHT IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS OF CO/WY/NE. AS WE
HEAD INTO THE AFTERNOON...UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE THANKS TO AN
ENHANCED FLOW AT JET LEVEL TO THE NORTHWEST WILL BE SUPERIMPOSED
WITH THE VORT MAX AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IN THE LOW LEVELS
ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. SATURATION WILL NOT BE A PROBLEM...BUT
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE
EXPANDING PRECIP BAND COULD LIMIT QPF TO THE NORTH.
HI-RES MODELS AGREE THAT THE NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTED PRECIP BAND
WILL BE PROGRESSING EAST ACROSS WESTERN MN THIS EVENING. SIMULATED
REFLECTIVITY FROM THESE MODELS SUGGEST LIMITED RETURNS NORTH OF
ABOUT MANKATO. THIS LINES UP WELL WITH THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE
NEGATIVE BEST LI`S WHICH WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS SOUTH OF ABOUT
MANKATO TONIGHT. HENCE...ISOLATED THUNDER REMAINS IN THE FORECAST
FOR THIS AREA...WHILE MORE STRATIFORM SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO THE
NORTH. IN GENERAL...A RANGE OF 0.15-0.35" IS NOW IN THE FORECAST
WITH THE MAXIMA BEING IN FAR SOUTHERN MN WHERE LIMITED INSTABILITY
MAY ENHANCE RAINFALL RATES.
GLOBAL MODELS AND HI-RES MODELS ALIKE AGREED THAT THE PRECIP BAND
LOOKS TO MOVE OUT A BIT QUICKER ON THURSDAY. SO...DROPPED THE POPS
FASTER FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY TOMORROW THROUGH MID-MORNING. NOW
EXPECTING THE ENTIRE FA TO BE DRY BY LATE MORNING AND BEYOND.
OTHERWISE...TODAY WILL SEE STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SYSTEM. INCREASED WINDS A FEW KNOTS AND HENCE THE
INCREASED HIGHS FOR TODAY SAW A SLIGHT INCREASE AS WELL.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
SHARP UPR LVL TROF WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE E THU EVE WHILE AN UPR
TROF BUILDS OVER THE NRN PLAINS. THE SFC PRES PATTERN WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY BAGGY...GENERALLY WITH LITTLE DEFINITION TO IT. THAT
SAID...A PRONOUNCED S-SW FLOW WILL DEVELOP AT THE SFC STARTING
FRI AND LAST INTO THE WEEKEND. A WEAK SFC CDFNT FRONT...BUT MORE
LIKELY A SFC TROF...WILL SWING THRU THE REGION FRI BUT BE OF
LITTLE CONSEQUENCE ASIDE FROM A SMALL INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
FOLLOWING THE CLEARING BEHIND THE DEPARTING AFOREMENTIONED TROF.
THE DEPARTURE OF THIS TROF WILL SPELL LARGE-SCALE RIDGING OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS...SPREADING NWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS AND UPR MISS
RIVER VALLEY. THE INCRS IN H5 HEIGHTS WILL ALLOW FOR NOTICEABLE
WARMING FOR THE WEEKEND...INCLUDING HIGHS REACHING AND POSSIBLY
ECLIPSING THE 70-DEGREE MARK. THIS WARM-UP LOOKS TO LAST FOR JUST
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AS THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN AND SHIFT EWD LATE
SUN INTO MON IN ADVANCE OF A MORE ORGANIZED STORM SYSTEM FOR THE
START OF NEXT WEEK. THOUGH THERE IS DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE
FORMATION OF A STORM SYSTEM IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES MONDAY...
SHIFTING NEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY TUE...THERE IS SOME MODEL
DISAGREEMENT AS TO THE PLACEMENT AND SPEED OF THE SYSTEM. HAVE
INCLUDED POPS BUT NO HIGHER THAN 30-40 PERCENT ATTM. THERE IS ALSO
GROWING CONFIDENCE THAT FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A COOLING OF
TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN TO SEASONABLE LEVELS FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION
OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 140 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
MAIN CONCERN FOR 18Z TAFS WAS TIMING SHOWERS IN THIS EVENING.
TIMED THINGS IN BASED ON THE HRRR AND OTHER HI-RES MODELS...WHICH
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER. TRIED NARROWING SHRA
WINDOW DOWN TO 3 OR 4 HOURS...WITH ONLY CHANGE IN TIMING BEING TO
SLOW DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF SHRA BY A COUPLE OF HOURS. WE WILL LIKELY
SEE ISO THUNDER WITH THE BAND OF SHRA...AS WE HAVE SEEN ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS TODAY...BUT COVERAGE/DURATION NOT EXPECTED TO BE ENOUGH
TO MENTION IN A TAF FOR NOW. MVFR CIGS WILL BEGIN TO EXPAND WITH
THE RAIN SHOWERS...WITH THE HRRR SHOWING CIGS COMING DOWN TO
BETWEEN 012 AND 020 WITH THE RAIN. SKIES WILL BE CLEARING OUT
PRETTY QUICK FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...WITH WINDS BACKING OFF
CONSIDERABLY. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG WEST
OF THE TWIN CITIES...WITH STC LOOKING TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF
FOGGING IN THU MORNING.
KMSP...
IF ANYTHING...CURRENT TAF IS AN HOUR OR SO TO FAST WITH BRINGING
PRECIP IN THIS EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE SHRA IMPACTING
MSP TONIGHT...BUT LESS CONFIDENCE ON THE MVFR CIGS. MVFR CIGS MOST
LIKELY WITHIN THE RAIN BAND...BUT LESS CONFIDENCE IN IF THOSE CIGS
WILL CONTINUE FOR A TIME INTO THE EARLY MORNING WHEN THE RAIN
ENDS. AFTER THAT...NO WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE REST OF THURSDAY.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WINDS SSW AT 5-10KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS NW AT 10-15KTS.
SUN...CHC MVFR/-SHRA OVERNIGHT. WINDS SE AT 10-15KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...MPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
1230 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1022 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
BAND OF ACCAS EVIDENT ON SAT IMAGERY FROM JUST SOUTH OF KPWC TO
SRN PART OF STATE...ADVECTING EAST. RAP13 SHOWS THIS ARE ALIGNED
WELL WITH 85H DEWPOINT AXIS OF 8C/10C. 88D KMPX SHOWS A LINE OF
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS
DIMINISHED. NO LTG STRIKES ATTM AND A SPRINKLE OR TWO HAS OCCURRED
WITHIN THIS CLOUD BAND. LATEST FCST RAP13 AND HRRR SIM REFLECTIVITY
PRODUCT INDICATES A FEW SPRINKLES MAY OCCUR WITH THIS AREA AS IT
TRANSLATES EAST TODAY. 85H 10C DEWPOINT AXIS DOES EXTEND RAPIDLY
NORTH TO INCLUDE ALL OF WRN CWA BY 18Z...AND WRN/CTRL CWA BY 21Z.
FCST UNSTABLE LOW/MID LVL LAPSE RATES REMAIN SOUTH OF CWA TODAY SO
HAVE REMOVED THUNDER MENTION WITH SOME SLIGHT INTREPIDATION.
OTHERWISE ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER BASED ON
MORNING 925 TEMPS/ADVECTION....AND INCREASED GUSTS BASED ON VALUES
ALREADY IN EXCESS OF 25 MPH IN WRN CWA. OTHERWISE MAIN PRECIP
EVENT STILL FCST TO SWEEP OVER AREA TONIGHT/EARLY THUR MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED AROUND THE COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH
RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW WEAK ISOLATED T-STORMS OVER NE
MN...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL
LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHLAND MOST OF TONIGHT AND EARLY THUR
MORNING. WILL ALSO HIGHLIGHT THE GUSTY S/SE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY AND
EVEN WARMER CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY.
UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE MID MS VALLEY REGION N/NEWD INTO
NRN QUEBEC THIS MORNING IS BEING SQUEEZED BY A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND THE NEXT INCOMING S/W ROLLING IN ACROSS
THE NRN FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES. AT THE SFC AN INVERTED RIDGE
FROM ERN QUEBEC EXTENDING BACK INTO THE WRN OHIO VALLEY REGION IS
DRAGGING EWD SLOWLY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...AND ALLOWING THE NEXT
SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE WEST TO INCREASE THE PRES GRADIENT OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST. A STRENGTHENING PRES GRADIENT TODAY COMBINED
WITH BL MIXING WILL PRODUCE SUSTAINED S/SE WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15
MPH...AND GUSTS UP TO OR EXCEEDING 20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. THE AIR
MASS PRECEDING THE FROPA WILL ATTEMPT TO BECOME UNSTABLE WITH
MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 100 J/KG AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES IN THE
AFTERNOON. INCREASING MOISTURE ON THE NOSE OF MODEST MOISTURE
TRANSPORT FROM THE SOUTH WILL ALLOW CONDITIONS TO BECOME FAVORABLE
FOR A FEW WEAK STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES TONIGHT...THE BROAD LARGE SCALE
LIFT AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE TO SUPPORT
MORE ORGANIZED SHOWERS. HOWEVER THE INSTABILITY WILL REALLY FALL
OFF AND HINDER ANY POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER. SO...WILL CONTINUE WITH
LIKELY RAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT ALONG THE FRONT WITH CONDITIONS DRYING
OUT QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT THUR MORNING. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS
LINGER AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR THUR AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...HIGH
PRESSURE WITH RIDGING ALOFT BEGINS TO TAKE HOLD LATER IN THE DAY
THUR.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL WARM INTO UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S ACROSS
THE ARROWHEAD...AND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S OVER AREAS TO THE
WEST AND SOUTH. THIS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY FOR
MOST AREAS. CLOUDY SKIES WILL KEEP TEMPS MILD TONIGHT...ONLY
FALLING INTO THE 40S. ON THURSDAY...SKIES WILL CLEAR TO THE WEST
AND ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. AREAS TO
THE EAST WILL RISE ANOTHER COUPLE DEGREES INTO THE LOWER TO MID
50S.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
A SERIES OF FAST MOVING SHORT WAVES WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A VORT MAX WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS FRIDAY...MAINLY TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA.
HOWEVER...THE DRY AIR MAS IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT ANY PRECIPITATION. A
MORE ORGANIZED WAVE WILL DROP OVER THE LAKE SUPERIOR REGION
SATURDAY...BUT AT THIS TIME THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE EAST OF THE CWA. SMALL POPS MAY BE NEEDED
IN THE TIP OF THE MN ARROWHEAD SAT IF THE TRACK OF THE LOW TRENDS
ANY FURTHER WEST. LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A H85
RIDGE AXIS MOVES INTO WESTERN MN SATURDAY AFTN...GRADUALLY SHIFTING
EAST OVER WISCONSIN SUNDAY...KEEPING THE NORTHLAND DRY AND MOSTLY
SUNNY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE SOME LOW
CLOUDS/DRIZZLE THAT MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE WESTERN TIP AND NORTH
SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES AND THE MARINE WINDS BECOME ONSHORE.
HOWEVER...HAVE KEPT POPS OUT SUNDAY AT THIS TIME AS ANTICIPATE A
SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE MOISTURE AND HIGHER DEW POINTS TO SUPPORT
SATURATING THE LOW LEVELS UNTIL THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING A RETURN TO WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS
THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE. ALTHOUGH
MODELS DIFFER IN TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THE WAVE THIS FAR OUT...THE
LATEST GFS/ECM ARE SUGGESTING CONVECTION DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE H50
TROUGH...ALONG A SFC BOUNDARY POSITIONED IN THE NORTHLAND VICINITY
MONDAY. AT THIS TIME HAVE CONTINUED TO CARRY SMALL POPS THROUGH THE
SUNDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY TIME FRAME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
TERMINALS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. GUSTY SFC WINDS AHEAD
OF THE BOUNDARY WITH VFR. AS THE BOUNDARY PASSES...SHOWERS WILL
OCCUR BUT TIMING AND OVERALL COVERAGE IN QUESTION AND MADE FEW
CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. LLWS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE
TERMINALS BETWEEN 01Z AND 09Z AS LLJ PASSES AHEAD OF THE FRONT. IN
THE VCNTY OF SHOWERS...VFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE FORECAST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 54 46 60 44 / 20 70 20 10
INL 58 47 61 39 / 50 70 10 0
BRD 58 47 65 40 / 40 70 10 0
HYR 56 45 55 41 / 20 70 50 10
ASX 57 45 55 42 / 20 70 60 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CANNON
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GSF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
353 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 353 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
Late this afternoon an elongated area of showers and isolated
thunderstorms extends from the Dakotas southward into north central
Kansas and further south scattered into central Texas. This
activity is associated with an upper trough propagating through the
northern Plains along with a secondary vorticity maximum in the
southern stream moving into western Oklahoma. Short range models
such as the HRRR and local WRF seemed to be doing a good job with
the timing of the precipitation into the forecast area. Still
expecting rain to spread into the area first in northwest Missouri
later this evening, then gradually across the rest of the forecast
area after midnight.
Upper features and weak surface boundary gradually exit the area
tomorrow bringing an end to the precipitation from west to east. A
few of the model time sections try to hold on to some cloud cover
during the day tomorrow especially over northeast Missouri, however
still anticipating seeing improving conditions in the afternoon
particularly over eastern Kansas and western Missouri.
Air mass behind the surface boundary moving through on Thursday not
significantly different than air mass currently over region so if
clouds can clear would still expect temperatures to rebound to above
seasonal values tomorrow. Significant warming of the lower and
middle layers of the atmosphere is forecast for Thursday night and
Friday. 850hPa temperatures approach +18C by 00Z Saturday in eastern
Kansas and western Missoui and as a result surface temperatures
should warm into the middle and upper 70s on Friday.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 353 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
A very pleasant weekend in store as a broad upper level ridge builds
into the country`s mid-section. This puts the CWA under northwest
flow aloft and surface winds shifting around from more northerly at
the start of the weekend to southeasterly by Sunday. With 850mb
temperatures progged to be in the mid teens, and thermal ridge axis
across the CWA Saturday afternoon, wouldn`t be surprised to see a
few locations reach 80 degrees by mid-afternoon. The upper level
ridge will shift eastward and over the area by Sunday, and allow for
another beautiful fall day with highs reaching the low 80s. However,
these reminiscent summerish days won`t last long given an
approaching trough that will bring another chance for rain and a few
thunderstorms. Southerly winds will help advect higher dewpoints
into the region Sunday and Monday increasing instability across the
region. With 500-1000 J/kg of CAPE forecast, cannot rule out a
rumble or two Monday afternoon ahead of the approaching trough.
Long-range models refuse to come to an agreement on the timing and
southern extent this trough will take. The EC takes a more aggressive
and slower approach by deepening the low as it moves across NM and
the TX panhandle. The GFS is less aggressive and keeps the main
trough across the Northern Plains with flow becoming more zonal by
Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
Main challenge for the 18Z forecast cycle is timing of precipitation into
the TAF sites. In general...prefer the scenario painted by the most
recent HRRR and local WRF run which hold off precipitation until 06z
or later. Should see MVFR conditions linger well into the early morning
hours tomorrow until conditions improve towards the end of the
forecast.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Mitchell
LONG TERM...PMM
AVIATION...Mitchell
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1232 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 357 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
Another nice day is in store for much of the region, despite the
threat of a few sprinkles during the day. Much of the focus for rain
over the next 36 hours will be on the late night through Thursday
hours as a weak front moves through. Satellite imagery shows us a
rather messy amplified pattern across the Nation with a shortwave
ridge residing across the Plains States with its axis just to our
west. A trough is noted shifting through the mountainous west and is
poised to to displace the ridge and bring some stormy weather later
tonight into Thursday as it pushes the weak cold front through our
area.
Weather for today will be rather nice, with pleasant conditions
expected into the evening hours. With the ridge in place expect
temperatures to make another run at highs in the mid 60s to mid 70s
today thanks to continued southeast winds at the surface an a
southwest flow aloft. However, that self same southwest flow aloft
may induce a few clouds today with some marginal support for
sprinkles --weak isentropic lift along the saturated 295K to 300K
surfaces--. Boundary layer moisture will be a little sparse to begin
the day, but as the surface high slides off to the east higher dew
points are expected to advect in ahead of a weak cold front that
will sweep through starting Thursday morning. This will set the
region up for a late night/early morning rain event as the weak
front approaches and then sweeps through. Widespread precipitation
should begin to encroach from the west late this evening, with the
best potential for widespread rain looking to hold off to around and
after midnight. Given the progressive nature of the front, and
precipitable water values only in the 1.4 inch range, heavy flooding
rains are not anticipated. Otherwise, as storms progress east early
Thursday the potential for any severe weather looks nonexistent as
instability looks insufficient to support strong storms, but may be
enough for embedded thunderstorms through the event. Any continuing
stormy activity should exit our area Thursday afternoon.
Conditions in the wake of the weak cold front will be rather nice as
temperatures Thursday are still expected to remain above seasonally
normal values. In fact, temperatures will begin to climb in the
following days as a large ridge slowly shifts east through the
weekend. This will likely push temperatures well into the 70s over
the weekend with dry conditions prevailing.
Next chance at storms, and more seasonal temperatures, will arrive
early next work week as another shortwave trough lifts northeast across
the Plains States. Precipitation chances are a bit low confidence at
this time given the large model discrepancies, but what they do agree
on is cooler temperatures; with readings ranging from highs in the 60s
to low in the 40s. However, this does not currently look to include
temperatures cold enough to induce a frost or freeze, so it`s looking
likely that a killing frost will have to wait till November.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
Main challenge for the 18Z forecast cycle is timing of precipitation into
the TAF sites. In general...prefer the scenario painted by the most
recent HRRR and local WRF run which hold off precipitation until 06z
or later. Should see MVFR conditions linger well into the early morning
hours tomorrow until conditions improve towards the end of the
forecast.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...Mitchell
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
300 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CUTTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING EAST
AS WELL. A SOLID LINE/AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS
MARCHING ACROSS THE CWA...BUT THE TIME FRAME IS LIMITED FOR
PRECIPITATION AS FLOW REMAINS QUITE PROGRESSIVE...HELPING THE COLD
FRONT TO CONTINUE TO SWEEP EAST. SOME SOLUTIONS...SUCH AS THE NAM
AND HRRR...INDICATE AN AREA OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWERS TO
DEVELOP THIS EVENING BEHIND THE CURRENT BAND/BANDS OF RAIN. THIS
WILL DELAY THE EXIT OF PRECIPITATION IN OUR EAST/SOUTHEAST A
BIT...AND COULD LINGER UNTIL ABOUT MIDNIGHT OR SO IN OUR EAST
SOUTHEAST.
A BIG CONCERN IS FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT. BOTH THE SREF AND RAP
INDICATE THAT AT LEAST SOME OF THE CWA IS IN FOR SOME FOG...AS THE
SKY CLEARS AND WIND BECOMES LIGHT BEHIND THE WAVE/COLD FRONT. WITH
MOST AREAS GETTING A DECENT SHOT OF RAIN TODAY...I HAVE DECIDED TO
HIT THE FOG WORDING QUITE A BIT HARDER...WITH AREAS OF FOG AND
PATCHY DENSE FOG WITH VISIBILITY OF HALF MILE OR LESS. WE WILL NEED
TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE HRRR VISIBILITY LATER THIS EVENING. IF THIS
NUMERICAL MODEL HITS THE FOG FAIRLY HARD AS WELL...WE MAY NEED A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY TONIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING.
BEHIND THE TROUGH/COLD FRONT THURSDAY...AIR BEHIND THE FRONT IS
MILD...BUT I DID LOWER THEM A BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...BASED
ON BCCONSRAW...WHICH I TEND TO LIKE THE DAY AFTER A COLD FRONT
PASSAGE.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
ALOFT: THE MEAN RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE CNTRL USA THRU SUN...
UNTIL THE TROF OVER THE E PAC MOVES ONSHORE. THIS TROF WILL MOVE
THRU HERE MON AND WILL BE THE NEXT POTENTIAL WX MAKER. LOW-AMPLITUDE
WNW FLOW ARRIVE IN ITS WAKE TUE-WED.
SURFACE: LOW PRES WILL BE HEADING E ACROSS CANADA. ITS ASSOCIATED
COOL FRONT WILL SLIP THRU HERE FRI NIGHT WITH NRN PLAINS HIGH PRES
BUILDING IN SAT. MEANWHILE THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING ONSHORE IN
THE W. A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FCST ISSUE HERE /SEE BELOW/. THE COOL FRONT
WILL MOVE THRU SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING WITH COOL HIGH PRES TO
FOLLOW TUE-WED.
THE DAILY DETAILS...
FRI: WARM SECTOR. WONDERFULLY WARM WITHIN THE THERMAL RIDGE. THE
WARMEST DAY OF THIS FCST. NO RECORDS THREATENED...BUT AFTERNOON
TEMPS WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF THEM.
SAT: NOT AS WARM...BUT STILL A SOLID 10F WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR LATE
OCT. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN TEMPS. GEM/EC/GFS/NAM 2M TEMPS ARE
SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER THAN MEX MOS /BY 10F/. AND WITH NO ESSENTIALLY
NO CLOUD COVER EXPECTED PER VERTICAL CROSS SECTIONS...AM NOT SURE
WHY. SO THE DIFF WAS SPLIT INCORPORATING THE PREVIOUS FCST WITH A
BIAS CORRECTION WHICH DID NUDGE TEMPS DOWN A LITTLE. ANYWAY YOU
SLICE IT...LIGHT WINDS AND STILL VERY NICE.
SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING: WE MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO MENTION A
CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS AS THE EC/GFS ARE INDICATING A POTENTIAL
INSTABILITY BURST AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT /K-INDEX 30 AND SHOWALTER
INDEX -1/ AS HIGHER 850 MB DEWPOINTS ADVECT BACK IN FROM THE S.
FOR WHAT IT/S WORTH 06Z/12Z GFS ARE OUTPUTTING SOME DRIBBLES OF
LIGHT QPF.
SUN: WE MAY HAVE PROBLEMS WITH TEMPS. THERE COULD BE A LINGERING
BATCH OF MULTI-LAYERED CLOUD COVER. THE POCKETS OF COOLER 850 MB
TEMPS ARE THE HINT. BELIEVE WE MAY BE TOO WARM. MULTI-MODEL 2M TEMPS
SUGGEST WE MAY BE TOO WARM BY AT LEAST 5F.
SUN NIGHT: COOL FRONTAL PASSAGE AND PROBABLY DRY. SOUNDINGS SHOW A
CAP.
MON: BREEZY AND COOLER IN COLD AIR ADVECTION. POSSIBLY A POST-
FRONTAL SHWR OR TWO. TEMPS RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL.
TUE: EVEN COOLER. TEMPS PROBABLY 5F BELOW NORMAL.
ANOTHER POTENTIAL FCST SNAG TUE IS THE 00Z/12Z EC HAVE A MUCH
SHARPER/SHORTER WAVELENGTH TO THE UPPER TROF MOVING THRU. THEY
DIFFER ON LOCATION BUT THIS SUGGESTS A LOW COULD FORM ON THE FRONT S
AND E OF THE FCST AREA.
WED: DRY WITH TEMP RECOVERY TO NEAR NORMAL POSSIBLE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
WIND WILL BE A BIT GUSTY FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED THUNDER WITH THE
APPROACHING SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT. PRECIPITATION
SHOULD CLEAR BY EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...EXCEPT THE
POSSIBILITY OF LOWER VISIBILITY WITH HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS. SOME
REDUCED VISIBILITY IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...BUT SIGNALS ARE NOT
STRONG.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...HEINLEIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
122 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 118 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE
DEFINITE CATEGORY WITHIN THE CORE AXIS OF PRECIPITATION MOVING
EAST...ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING EAST. THE HRRR SEEMS
TO BE HANDLING THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE PRECIPITATION QUITE
WELL...AND IS MY PREFERRED SHORT-TERM NUMERICAL MODEL OUTPUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 438 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
BY FAR THE MAIN ITEM OF INTEREST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS THE
FAIRLY DECENT CHANCE OF AT LEAST BRIEF MEASURABLE RAIN
SHOWERS/EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS PASSING ACROSS THE CWA FROM WEST-
TO-EAST MAINLY FROM MID-MORNING THROUGH MID-EVENING. WHILE THE
ENTIRE CWA STANDS AT LEAST A 50-60 PERCENT CHANCE OF SEEING
RAIN...THE HIGHEST 70-80 PERCENT CHANCES CURRENTLY ADVERTISED
APPEAR TO FOCUS NEAR AND ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 281
CORRIDOR...WHERE THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF REALIZING A GENERAL
0.25-0.50 INCH AND LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS EXISTS. ALTHOUGH RAIN IS
LIKELY IN MOST AREAS...WANT TO EMPHASIZE TWO MAIN POINTS HERE FOR
THE PUBLIC MESSAGE: 1) THIS IS BY NO MEANS AN ALL DAY/ALL EVENING
RAIN- OUT...AS ANY GIVEN LOCATION SHOULD ROUGHLY OBSERVE ONLY A
2-4 HOUR WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIP. 2) FOLLOWING IN LINE
WITH POINT 1 ABOUT THIS NOT BEING AN ALL DAY EVENT...FOLKS FROM
THE TRI- CITIES EASTWARD PROBABLY WONT SEE A SINGLE DROP UNTIL
GENERALLY THE NOON-2PM TIME FRAME...AND THOSE COUNTIES IN THE FAR
EASTERN CWA ALONG HIGHWAY 81 MAY VERY WELL BE WAITING ON RAIN
UNTIL AT LEAST THE 2-4 PM TIME FRAME. ONCE PRECIP MOVES OUT THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT...THE SECONDARY SHORT TERM FORECAST ISSUE INVOLVES
WHETHER OR NOT AT LEAST PATCHY/POTENTIALLY IMPACTFUL FOG MIGHT
FORM LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING IN ITS WAKE.
STARTING WITH THE CURRENT SCENE AS OF 0830Z/330 AM...ALL HAS BEEN
QUIET ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT...AS THE NEAREST RAIN STILL REMAINS
WELL OUT WEST IN THE PANHANDLE. FURTHERMORE...AS SUSPECTED HERE 24
HOURS AGO...DECENT BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AS EVIDENCED BY FAIRLY
STEADY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BREEZES GENERALLY IN THE 7-13 MPH RANGE HAS
APPARENTLY THWARTED ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT WORTH MENTIONING IN THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST (MEANING WIDESPREAD VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 2-3 MILES)...AND THUS THE PATCHY FOG
PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED FOR THIS MORNING HAS BEEN PULLED. ALTHOUGH
THERE ARE STILL A FEW MORE HOURS FOR THINGS TO CHANGE...EVEN A
LOWER STRATUS DECK HAS FAILED TO MATERIALIZE OVER THE LOCAL
AREA...WITH ANY LIMITED SKY COVER AT THIS POINT CONSISTING OF ONLY
THE MID-HIGH VARIETY. AT THE SURFACE...A MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN A GREAT LAKES REGION HIGH AND A TROUGH AXIS/WEAK COLD
FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE NEB PANHANDLE INTO NORTHEAST
CO IS DRIVING THE STEADY SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT BREEZES...WHICH ARE
WORKING TO KEEP TEMPS NOTICEABLY MILDER AND MORE UNIFORM THAN LAST
NIGHT...WITH MOST OF THE CWA ON TRACK TO REALIZE LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE 53-57 RANGE. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVEL PICTURE...WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA CONFIRMS THAT CHANGES
ARE UNDERWAY AS A BROAD RIDGE CONTINUES DEPARTING EAST OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...WHILE THE LEADING EDGES OF SMALL-SCALE
DISTURBANCES ARE STARTING TO ENTER THE FAR WESTERN NEB/KS
AREA...ALTHOUGH WELL TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE PRIMARY PARENT
VORT MAX TRACKING EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EASTERN MT/CANADA
BORDER AREA.
FORECAST WISE...AND STARTING WITH THE INITIAL FEW HOURS THROUGH
14Z/9AM...HAVE LEFT ANY MENTION OF RAIN OUT OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH THE VERY EASTERN EDGES OF A FEW SHOWERS COULD
BE IMPINGING ON THE FAR WESTERN CWA BY THAT TIME. IN THE
MEANTIME...ABOUT THE ONLY ISSUE IS MONITORING WHETHER OR NOT ANY
AT LEAST LOCALIZED AREAS OF LOW STRATUS TRY TO FORM.
GETTING INTO THE HEART OF THE DAYTIME HOURS...AND AS TOUCHED ON AT
THE TOP...RAIN CHANCES WILL SLOWLY BUT SURELY INCREASE ACROSS THE
CWA FROM WEST-TO-EAST. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...THIS IS A FAIRLY
CLASSIC...MODESTLY-STRONGLY FORCED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AS THE
ENTIRE BROAD TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY...ACCOMPANIED
BY AN EASTWARD-ADVANCING CORRIDOR OF MID LEVEL
CONVERGENCE/FRONTOGENESIS AND UPPER JET DIVERGENCE. MEANWHILE AT
THE SURFACE...THE ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY PASS
INTO THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON...AIDING LOW LEVEL FORCING AND HELPING
TO ORGANIZE CONVECTION INTO WHAT WILL LIKELY BE A GRADUALLY
STRENGTHENING LINE OF SHOWERS/FAIRLY WEAK THUNDERSTORMS WITH TIME.
AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL REMAIN BREEZY AND ACTUALLY INCREASED THESE WIND SPEEDS
SOMEWHAT WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS GENERALLY 15+ MPH AND GUSTS AT
LEAST 20-25 MPH. BEHIND THE FRONT...BREEZES WILL BECOME LIGHTER AS
THEY TURN WESTERLY AND EVENTUALLY LIGHT NORTHERLY TO
LIGHT/VARIABLE. AS ALSO PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...THINK THE MAJORITY
OF THE CWA WILL PROBABLY REALIZE RAIN TOTALS NO MORE THAN
0.25-0.50 INCH...ALTHOUGH ANY EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS COULD EASILY
PUSH A FEW SPOTS MAYBE EVEN CLOSER TO 1 INCH...ALTHOUGH THIS WOULD
LIKELY BE A CONSIDERABLE EXCEPTION TO THE NORM. AS FOR
THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY...WHILE CERTAINLY NO SEVERE WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED...THE PRESENCE OF MAYBE UP TO 400-600 J/KG OF MIXED-
LAYER CAPE PER THE 06Z NAM COULD POSSIBLY SUPPORT A FEW CORES WITH
SMALL HAIL ESPECIALLY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. TEMP-WISE...CONFIDENCE
IS NOT OVERLY-HIGH GIVEN THE VARIOUS OFFSETTING FACTORS INCLUDING
INCREASING CLOUDS BUT A RELATIVELY MILD START. ALL THINGS
CONSIDERED THOUGH...OPTED TO NUDGE HIGHS UP 1-3 DEGREES FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST IN MOST PLACES...GENERALLY AIMING FOR UPPER 60S-
LOW 70S WEST TO MAINLY MID 70S EAST.
TURNING TO THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...PER THE PREFERRED LOOK OF
VARIOUS HIGHER-RES MODELS INCLUDING SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY FROM
THE 00Z 4KM WRF-NMM/ARW...BY 00Z/7PM THE VAST MAJORITY OF ONGOING
PRECIP SHOULD BE FOCUSED NEAR/EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 281
CORRIDOR...WITH MOST PLACES FARTHER WEST ALREADY DRYING OUT. AS
THE LARGE SCALE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES ITS
DEPARTURE...THE NARROW ZONE OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL
GRADUALLY DEPART AS WELL...AND BY 03Z/10PM...ONLY PLACES GENERALLY
EAST OF AN OSCEOLA-SUPERIOR-OSBORNE KS LINE CONTINUE TO CARRY A
20+ PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN...AND HAVE ALL MENTIONABLE RAIN CHANCES
WHATSOEVER OUT OF EVEN THE FAR SOUTHEAST CWA BY 08Z/2AM...AND EVEN
THIS MAY BE GENEROUSLY LONG. IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING PRECIP...THE
MAIN QUESTION MARK FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO EARLY THURS
MORNING INVOLVES WHETHER OR NOT AT LEAST LIMITED FOG DEVELOPMENT
COULD BECOME AN ISSUE...WITH THE LATEST NAM12 VISIBILITY PRODUCT
ACTUALLY SUGGESTING THAT FAIRLY LOW VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS COULD
MATERIALIZE. ALTHOUGH NOT A SLAM DUNK FOR FOG FORMATION BY ANY
MEANS (IT RARELY IS)...FELT THE FAVORABLE FACTORS OF CLEARING
SKIES OVER WET GROUND IN THE PRESENCE OF GENERALLY LIGHT/VARIABLE
BREEZES LESS THAN 5 MPH WAS ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY A GENERIC PATCHY FOG
MENTION FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA TO GET THE BALL ROLLING IN
CASE IT ULTIMATELY AMOUNTS TO SOMETHING IMPACTFUL. ONE POSSIBLE
FOG-MITIGATING FACTOR FOR PARTS OF THE CWA COULD BE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A LATE-NIGHT MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK AS SUGGESTED BY
THE 06Z NAM...BUT IN GENERAL EXPECT OVERNIGHT SKIES TO AVERAGE NO
WORSE THAN PARTLY CLOUD BEHIND THE DEPARTING PRIMARY WAVE. MADE
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES...BLENDING VARIOUS
GUIDANCE/MODELS TO YIELD A RANGE FROM NEAR-40 FAR NORTHWEST TO LOW
50S FAR SOUTHEAST.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 438 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY
BEFORE WE SEE A RETURN TO MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE GENERALLY
IN THE LOWER 60S...WHILE HIGHS THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO RISE AT LEAST INTO THE 70S WITH MAYBE EVEN SOME LOWER 80S AROUND
BY FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.
MOST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DRY WITH JUST A LOW END CHANCE
OF RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY ON MONDAY ALONG AND BEHIND A PASSING COLD
FRONT.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THERE WILL BE A WEAK VORT MAX ON
THURSDAY THAT WILL BE TRAILING THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH THAT WILL
HAVE PASSED THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS SECONDARY
VORT MAX ON THURSDAY WILL HAVE LESS FORCING AND LESS MOISTURE TO
WORK WITH AND A VAST MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST MODELS ARE DRY.
HOWEVER...THE 00Z NAM DOES TRY TO INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
VERY WEAK RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS
UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY FEATURE/SUBTLE TROUGH. AM NOT BUYING INTO THE
NAM POSSIBILITY OF RAIN AT THIS POINT IN TIME AND WILL CONTINUE TO
CALL FOR A DRY FORECAST ON THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE IN A DRY FORECAST ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY IS VERY HIGH AS THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE FIRMLY
LOCATED OVER THE AREA BY THAT POINT IN TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL ALL THREE DAYS RISING FROM THE LOWER TO MID 70S ON
THURSDAY TO THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
ADDING TO THE NICE FORECAST FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
SUNDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE EAST INTO THE
EASTERN CONUS...WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE WESTERN CONUS.
THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO WHEN A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL TRACK THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA. FORECAST MODEL RUNS
HAVE GENERALLY SLOWED THE SYSTEM DOWN FROM 24HRS AGO...WHICH WOULD
RESULT IN ANOTHER VERY NICE DAY ON SUNDAY SIMILAR TO SATURDAY...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE LOWER IN THE SUNDAY FORECAST HIGHS GIVEN THE
PROXIMITY OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT AND QUESTIONS ABOUT TIMING OF THAT
FRONT.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...IT APPEARS TO BE A GOOD BET THAT THE COLD FRONT
WILL HAVE TRACKED ACROSS...OR WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA BY MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES THAT ARE 10 TO
15 DEGREES COOLER THAN ON SUNDAY...WHICH WILL ACTUALLY MEAN THAT
HIGHS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL IN THE LOWER 60S FOR MOST
AREAS...ALTHOUGH KANSAS ZONES MAY BE A TOUCH WARMER. THERE WILL BE
SOME CHANCE OF RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
A GREAT CHANCE AT THIS POINT IN TIME AND AMOUNTS ALSO DO NOT
CURRENTLY APPEAR VERY SIGNIFICANT. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE COOL DRY
FORECAST FOR TUESDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
WIND WILL BE A BIT GUSTY FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED THUNDER WITH THE
APPROACHING SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT. PRECIPITATION
SHOULD CLEAR BY EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...EXCEPT THE
POSSIBILITY OF LOWER VISIBILITY WITH HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS. SOME
REDUCED VISIBILITY IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...BUT SIGNALS ARE NOT
STRONG.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HEINLEIN
SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...HEINLEIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
315 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OVER NEW
MEXICO OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...BRINGING SPECTACULAR WEATHER
TO THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH A FEW NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COOLER
BY SUNDAY AND WINDS WILL TREND STRONGER AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST OF
THE STATE. COOLER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY
AS A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RACES THROUGH THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
THE LATEST RADAR SHOWS JUST A COUPLE VERY LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING
SOUTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN TO THE PLAINS. 20Z LAPS DATA
INDICATES ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT A FEW STORMS HOWEVER A
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ALOFT IS ACTING TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION BELOW
550MB. THE 18Z NAM12 AND HRRR INDICATE THE BULK OF ANY STORMS WILL
FOCUS OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS AND AROUND SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTY.
OTHERWISE...WHAT FEW CLOUDS EXIST ACROSS CENTRAL/WESTERN NM WILL
DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE EAST WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS HOLDING STRONG.
WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE BENEATH A STRENGTHENING RIDGE ALOFT WILL
FAVOR AREAS OF FOG WITHIN THE PECOS AND ESTANCIA VALLEYS...AS WELL
AS ALONG THE CAPROCK.
THURSDAY WILL FEATURE WARMING TEMPERATURES AS 700MB VALUES RISE
TO NEAR +10C. THIS IS NEAR THE 95TH PERCENTILE FOR LATE OCTOBER.
THE H5 RIDGE THEN CRESTS OVER NM AT 591DM AND DELIVERS A REALLY
SPECTACULAR FRIDAY. 700MB TEMPS PEAK OUT NEAR +12C WHICH IS +2
STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE CLIMO. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR RECORD ACROSS THE
EAST WITH LOTS OF MID 80S. ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS TO STAY
IN PLACE AND LEE TROUGHING REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK SO NOT REALLY
EXPECTING RECORDS. BY SATURDAY THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND WINDS
BEGIN INCREASING IN THE EAST. HIGHS CERTAINLY MAY NEAR 90F IN THE
AREA AROUND TUCUMCARI. ELSEWHERE...IT WILL REMAIN SUNNY AND WARM.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT FROM MODELS WHICH
INDICATES FAST ZONAL FLOW OVER NM. THIS WILL FAVOR CONTINUED WARM
TEMPS OVER THE EAST WITH KATABATIC FLOW. SOME MOUNTAIN WAVE WIND
DRIVEN CIRCULATION MAY CREATE LOCALLY STRONG WINDS ON THE EAST
SLOPES BOTH DAYS. 700MB COLD ADVECTION IN THE WEST WILL COOL HIGHS
DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES. THE DGEX AND ECMWF DO SHOW ENOUGH MID/UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTS FOR A COUPLE HIGH TERRAIN
SHOWERS.
GUYER
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WE WILL BEGIN A DRYING TREND LATE TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOOK
FOR WARMING DAYTIME HIGHS...UP AND DOWN VENTILATION RATES...AND A
DOWNTREND IN HUMIDITY VALUES WITH BREEZY WESTERLIES.
VERY SPOTTY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ALONG THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN BUT WILL DIMINISH DOWNSLOPE TOWARD THE EASTERN PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THE EARLY EVENING. VERY LITTLE WETTING
RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM SPOTTY STORMS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND WILL SHIFT EASTWARD BY FRIDAY
BRINGING US WARMER DAYTIME HIGHS 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...
FOLLOWING A DOWNTREND IN HUMIDITY VALUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
VENTILATION WILL BE POOR ON FRIDAY BUT RATES LOOK TO IMPROVE OVER
THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS EAST. HAINES VALUES WILL
ALSO TREND UPWARD...WITH 5S EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN.
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY AND MONDAY ALONG AND
EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN BECAUSE OF AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES. COULD SEE MARGINALLY
CRITICAL WIND SPEEDS WEST CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY CENTRAL HIGHLANDS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOON...HUMIDITIES LOOK TO STAY A LITTLE ABOVE
CRITICAL CRITERIA AT THIS TIME. A COOLING TREND OF HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH THE STATE.
MODELS DIFFER LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY ABOUT WETTING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. GFS IS DRIER WITH ZONAL FLOW OVER THE STATE WHILE ECMWF IS
BULLISH ON PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST AS A REMAINING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXITS THE STATE.
32/43
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AT KROW WILL GRADUALLY BECOME VFR AFTER
19Z. OTHERWISE VFR ELSEWHERE. A FEW AFTN ISOLATED STORMS COULD
DEVELOP ALONG THE MTNS BUT WILL DIMINISH DOWN SLOPE TOWARD THE
EASTERN PLAINS. LOW CONFIDENCE OF VCSH OR VCTS FOR SITES BUT WILL
AMEND IF NECESSARY. AREAS NEAR KROW WILL SEE POTENTIAL FOR FG AFTER
06Z WITH EVEN LOWER POTENTIAL OF MVFR/IFR CIGS.
32/43
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 42 73 42 76 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 33 70 32 73 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 39 71 38 74 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 36 73 36 76 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 35 70 34 72 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 37 72 35 75 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 41 70 40 73 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 40 78 41 79 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 31 67 30 69 / 5 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 45 68 46 72 / 5 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 42 67 42 71 / 5 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 35 69 34 72 / 5 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 33 59 34 63 / 10 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 30 64 31 69 / 10 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 35 69 32 73 / 5 0 0 0
MORA............................ 40 68 40 73 / 5 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 45 73 44 78 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 44 68 44 72 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 44 72 43 76 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 49 72 50 75 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 50 74 50 77 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 48 75 45 78 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 49 76 48 79 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 43 75 42 77 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 49 76 48 79 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 46 78 46 79 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 45 73 47 75 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 46 73 49 75 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 38 74 38 76 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 43 71 44 74 / 5 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 45 70 45 73 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 45 74 46 76 / 5 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 44 71 46 73 / 5 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 43 70 45 76 / 10 0 0 0
RATON........................... 40 74 40 78 / 5 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 38 74 38 80 / 5 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 41 73 41 76 / 5 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 49 76 51 82 / 10 0 0 0
ROY............................. 45 74 45 78 / 5 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 50 81 49 83 / 5 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 50 79 49 83 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 51 82 50 85 / 5 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 51 78 51 82 / 10 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 51 79 51 82 / 10 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 51 80 50 82 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 51 79 50 82 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 47 76 48 78 / 5 0 0 0
ELK............................. 46 71 47 73 / 5 0 0 0
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1157 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AT KROW WILL GRADUALLY BECOME VFR AFTER
19Z. OTHERWISE VFR ELSEWHERE. A FEW AFTN ISOLATED STORMS COULD
DEVELOP ALONG THE MTNS BUT WILL DIMINISH DOWN SLOPE TOWARD THE
EASTERN PLAINS. LOW CONFIDENCE OF VCSH OR VCTS FOR SITES BUT WILL
ADMEND IF NECESSARY. AREAS NEAR KROW WILL SEE POTENTIAL FOR FG AFTER
06Z WITH EVEN LOWER POTENTIAL OF MVFR/IFR CIGS.
32/43
.PREV DISCUSSION...1036 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014...
.UPDATE...
LOWERED POPS AND SKY COVER FOR MUCH OF WESTERN NM FOR THE REMAINDER
OF TODAY. FOCUSED GREATEST CHANCES ALONG EAST SLOPES OF SACRAMENTO
MTS TO THE TEXAS STATE LINE. 12Z RAOB AT FLAGSTAFF INDICATED DRIER
AIR AND RIDGING ADVECTING INTO OUR REGION TODAY...WHILE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE STILL HOLDS STRONG. LATEST HRRR AND NAM12 SOLUTIONS SHOW
SPRINKLE TYPE ACTIVITY FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM. EVEN IF ANY
SHOWERS DO POP AROUND CENTRAL MTS THEY ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
VERY LITTLE QPF. BEST SHOT AT WETTING RAINFALL WILL BE OVER THE FAR
SOUTHEAST.
GUYER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...330 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
THE LAST IN A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS WILL MOVE
THROUGH EASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH PASSAGE THIS MORNING BEFORE A DRIER MORE STABLE
AIRMASS MOVES IN DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY...A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN
AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. A DRY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH WESTERN NEW MEXICO SUNDAY AND
THROUGH EASTERN AREAS SUNDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP TEMPERATURES
DOWN 10-15F MONDAY THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK...NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR LATE OCTOBER.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVING THROUGH EASTERN NM EARLY THIS
MORNING. DRIER AIR ALOFT ALREADY WORKING INTO WRN NM AND WITH
MODERATE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE...NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
TODAY. A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AS SURFACE HEATING
WILL BE STRONGER THAN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS BUT THEY`LL HAVE TO
FIGHT THE DRY AIR ALOFT AND A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.
ADDITIONALLY...A TRAILING SHORT- WAVE/SPEED MAX IN THE DEVELOPING NW
FLOW ALOFT OVER FAR NE NM MAY HELP GET A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS GOING OVER THE FAR NE HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS THIS
EVENING. AREAS OF FOG LIKELY IN THE MORENO VALLEY AND ESTANCIA
BASIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNINGS AS INCREASING TEMPERATURES ALOFT CREATE
VERY STRONG TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS.
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THE RULE ON THURSDAY AS A STRONG
SUBTROPICAL HIGH INCHES NEWD FROM SRN AZ. THIS STRONG DOME OF HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT IS PROGGED TO MOVE SMACK DAB OVER CENTRAL NM FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECTING A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL
FLIRT WITH NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT
SATURDAY APPEARS TO BE THE WARMER DAY AS SWLY BREEZES DUE TO A
STRENGTHENING LEE SFC TROUGH RESULT IN DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS. EXPECT A FEW
LOCATIONS FROM CLAYTON SOUTH TO TUCUMCARI...CLOVIS/PORTALES AND
ROSWELL COULD REACH OR EXCEED THEIR RECORD HIGHS FOR THE DATE.
SWLY FLOW ALOFT OVER NM TRANSITIONS TO WLY ON SUNDAY. GFS AND
ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SEWD
THROUGH WRN AND CENTRAL NM SUNDAY...BRINGING A COOL DOWN OF ABOUT
5-8 DEGREES MOST AREAS WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER/COLDER AIR IS EXPECTED SUNDAY
NIGHT...COOLING TEMPERATURES FURTHER. MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE COMING
MORE IN LINE WITH REGARD THE THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT TIME-FRAME...KEEPING IT AS AN OPEN WAVE
AND MORE OF A GLANCING BLOW TO FAR NORTHERN NM. MODELS BECOME
COMPLETELY OUT OF PHASE BY MID WEEK NEXT WEEK AND FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE BEYOND SUNDAY NIGHT REMAINS LOW.
33
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A DRYING/WARMING TREND TO KICK-OFF TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY
BEFORE GOING FLAT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST
THIS AFTERNOON EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...BUT WETTING
POTENTIAL IS DOWN COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. VENTILATION
WILL BE A MIXED-BAG TODAY...WITH MUCH OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
HAVING A HARD TIME MOVING OUT OF THE POOR CATEGORY.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THEN SHIFT EAST ACROSS NEW
MEXICO INTO FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND UP TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL
WITH HUMIDITY TRENDING DOWN TO WITHIN 5 PERCENT OF CRITICAL
THRESHOLD ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY. VENT RATES WILL TREND
DOWN AS WELL...WITH MUCH OF THE AREA STAYING POOR ON FRIDAY.
VENTILATION IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND GIVEN HIGH
FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA AND
MODERATE WESTERLIES PUNCHING INTO THE STATE. HAINES INDICES WILL
TREND UP GOING INTO SATURDAY AS WELL...WITH MOSTLY 5S FORECAST
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS...INCLUDING THE EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS. WINDS INCREASE SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH A PROGRESSIVE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
A COOL-DOWN FORECAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW NORMAL.
NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FORECAST THIS CYCLE...BUT BRIEF
HITS ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST PLAINS ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY.
11
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1036 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014
.UPDATE...
LOWERED POPS AND SKY COVER FOR MUCH OF WESTERN NM FOR THE REMAINDER
OF TODAY. FOCUSED GREATEST CHANCES ALONG EAST SLOPES OF SACRAMENTO
MTS TO THE TEXAS STATE LINE. 12Z RAOB AT FLAGSTAFF INDICATED DRIER
AIR AND RIDGING ADVECTING INTO OUR REGION TODAY...WHILE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE STILL HOLDS STRONG. LATEST HRRR AND NAM12 SOLUTIONS SHOW
SPRINKLE TYPE ACTIVITY FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM. EVEN IF ANY
SHOWERS DO POP AROUND CENTRAL MTS THEY ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
VERY LITTLE QPF. BEST SHOT AT WETTING RAINFALL WILL BE OVER THE FAR
SOUTHEAST.
GUYER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...543 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014...
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
A MIXED BAG OF MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN THIS MORNING. KLVS HAS IMPROVED TO VFR AND WILL
LIKELY STAY THERE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. PREVAILING IFR
CONDITIONS AT KROW WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE THIS MORNING...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS FORECAST TO RETURN BY 19Z. LOWER FORECAST CONFIDENCE AT
KTCC...BUT MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE TERMINAL OFF-AND-ON
THROUGH 15Z. IFR CIGS AT KSAF THIS MORNING MAY LOWER TO THE
GROUND BETWEEN 06-08Z...WITH RAPID IMPROVEMENT THEREAFTER. VFR
CONDITIONS FORECAST TO PERSIST AT KFMN...KGUP...KAEG AND KABQ WITH
LIGHT WINDS.
11
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...330 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
THE LAST IN A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS WILL MOVE
THROUGH EASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH PASSAGE THIS MORNING BEFORE A DRIER MORE STABLE
AIRMASS MOVES IN DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY...A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN
AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. A DRY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH WESTERN NEW MEXICO SUNDAY AND
THROUGH EASTERN AREAS SUNDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP TEMPERATURES
DOWN 10-15F MONDAY THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK...NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR LATE OCTOBER.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVING THROUGH EASTERN NM EARLY THIS
MORNING. DRIER AIR ALOFT ALREADY WORKING INTO WRN NM AND WITH
MODERATE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE...NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
TODAY. A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AS SURFACE HEATING
WILL BE STRONGER THAN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS BUT THEY`LL HAVE TO
FIGHT THE DRY AIR ALOFT AND A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.
ADDITIONALLY...A TRAILING SHORT- WAVE/SPEED MAX IN THE DEVELOPING NW
FLOW ALOFT OVER FAR NE NM MAY HELP GET A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS GOING OVER THE FAR NE HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS THIS
EVENING. AREAS OF FOG LIKELY IN THE MORENO VALLEY AND ESTANCIA
BASIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNINGS AS INCREASING TEMPERATURES ALOFT CREATE
VERY STRONG TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS.
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THE RULE ON THURSDAY AS A STRONG
SUBTROPICAL HIGH INCHES NEWD FROM SRN AZ. THIS STRONG DOME OF HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT IS PROGGED TO MOVE SMACK DAB OVER CENTRAL NM FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECTING A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL
FLIRT WITH NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT
SATURDAY APPEARS TO BE THE WARMER DAY AS SWLY BREEZES DUE TO A
STRENGTHENING LEE SFC TROUGH RESULT IN DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS. EXPECT A FEW
LOCATIONS FROM CLAYTON SOUTH TO TUCUMCARI...CLOVIS/PORTALES AND
ROSWELL COULD REACH OR EXCEED THEIR RECORD HIGHS FOR THE DATE.
SWLY FLOW ALOFT OVER NM TRANSITIONS TO WLY ON SUNDAY. GFS AND
ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SEWD
THROUGH WRN AND CENTRAL NM SUNDAY...BRINGING A COOL DOWN OF ABOUT
5-8 DEGREES MOST AREAS WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER/COLDER AIR IS EXPECTED SUNDAY
NIGHT...COOLING TEMPERATURES FURTHER. MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE COMING
MORE IN LINE WITH REGARD THE THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT TIME-FRAME...KEEPING IT AS AN OPEN WAVE
AND MORE OF A GLANCING BLOW TO FAR NORTHERN NM. MODELS BECOME
COMPLETELY OUT OF PHASE BY MID WEEK NEXT WEEK AND FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE BEYOND SUNDAY NIGHT REMAINS LOW.
33
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A DRYING/WARMING TREND TO KICK-OFF TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY
BEFORE GOING FLAT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST
THIS AFTERNOON EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...BUT WETTING
POTENTIAL IS DOWN COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. VENTILATION
WILL BE A MIXED-BAG TODAY...WITH MUCH OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
HAVING A HARD TIME MOVING OUT OF THE POOR CATEGORY.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THEN SHIFT EAST ACROSS NEW
MEXICO INTO FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND UP TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL
WITH HUMIDITY TRENDING DOWN TO WITHIN 5 PERCENT OF CRITICAL
THRESHOLD ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY. VENT RATES WILL TREND
DOWN AS WELL...WITH MUCH OF THE AREA STAYING POOR ON FRIDAY.
VENTILATION IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND GIVEN HIGH
FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA AND
MODERATE WESTERLIES PUNCHING INTO THE STATE. HAINES INDICES WILL
TREND UP GOING INTO SATURDAY AS WELL...WITH MOSTLY 5S FORECAST
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS...INCLUDING THE EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS. WINDS INCREASE SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH A PROGRESSIVE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
A COOL-DOWN FORECAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW NORMAL.
NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FORECAST THIS CYCLE...BUT BRIEF
HITS ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST PLAINS ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY.
11
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1245 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
.DISCUSSION...
THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....
&&
.AVIATION...
A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A BAND OF SHRA ACROSS MUCH OF OK
AND N TX THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED
TSRA...BUT CHANCES OF OCCURRENCE AT ANY GIVEN POINT ARE VERY LOW.
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WITHIN SOME OF THE EXPANSE OF CLOUD
COVER...ESPECIALLY WITHIN SHRA...AND THIS WILL PERSIST
INTERMITTENTLY THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. THE TAFS HIGHLIGHT THE
MOST LIKELY TIME FOR OCCURRENCE OF SHRA...BUT SHRA WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z AT ALL SITES...AND UNTIL ABOUT 18Z
AT KPNC. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT IFR CONDITIONS...BUT AT THIS
POINT IT APPEARS THAT ANY SUCH CONDITIONS WOULD BE FAIRLY SHORT-
LIVED AND ISOLATED.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/
UPDATE...
LOWERED MAX TEMPS AND EXPANDED POPS EASTWARD.
DISCUSSION...
WITH THE INCOMING SHOWERS AND LOW CLOUDS...LOOKS LIKE TEMPS IN
WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE. HRRR IS SHOWING
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING FARTHER EAST THAN ORIGINALLY
FORECAST...SO EXPANDED POPS EASTWARD A BIT. OVERALL COVERAGE STILL
LOOKS TO BE A BIT SPOTTY...SO OPTED NOT TO RAISE POPS MUCH AT THIS
POINT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/
AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...LITTLE IF ANY LIGHTNING ASSOCIATED WITH PRECIPITATION
ACROSS WEST TEXAS THIS MORNING. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
THIS MORNING ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AS A TROUGH APPROACHES.
BAND OF PRECIP SHOULD MOVE ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA BETWEEN 18-23Z.
CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS BETWEEN 22Z-4Z.
SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/
DISCUSSION...
LITTLE IF ANY CLOUD COVER EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT THIS WILL
CHANGE THROUGH THE MORNING...AS CLOUDS INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF A
TROUGH. MEANWHILE...LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...WILL RESULT IN PATCHY
DENSE FOG. MOST OF THE FOG WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE.
A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS
TODAY...WILL GENERALLY PHASE WITH ANOTHER TROUGH OVER EASTERN NEW
MEXICO/COLORADO. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALTHOUGH WEAK...ENOUGH INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED FOR SOME STORMS.
AFTER THE TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY...VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN...AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS.
ANOTHER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES ON MONDAY. THE EC IS THE
STRONGEST WITH THE TROUGH AS IT HAS BEEN WITH THE LAST FEW
SYSTEMS. THE GFS MAY BE A LITTLE WEAK...BUT STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP
CHANCES LOW FOR RAIN/STORMS WITH THE COLD FRONT (MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT).
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 79 57 80 56 / 20 40 10 0
HOBART OK 78 57 81 57 / 50 40 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 81 59 82 57 / 30 30 10 0
GAGE OK 74 54 79 51 / 40 30 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 79 59 78 55 / 20 50 20 0
DURANT OK 79 55 76 56 / 0 20 20 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
14/23/23
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND OR
940 AM PDT WED OCT 22 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG AND SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS
ACCESS TO A MODEST ATMOSPHERIC RIVER OF MOISTURE WHICH STRETCHES
ACROSS MUCH OF THE PACIFIC...MEANING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN FOR
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. THE
CENTRAL OREGON COAST WILL REMAIN WINDY THROUGH MORNING...AND
POTENTIALLY INTO THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIE DOWN BEHIND THE FRONT
AS IT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA LATER TODAY. ANOTHER WET AND
POTENTIALLY WINDY SYSTEM IS EXPECTED BY THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.MORNING UPDATE...AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS LASHED
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE TO
IMPACT THE REGION THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A STRONG AND MOIST
FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHING ONSHORE. THE HEAVIEST RAIN SO FAR HAS FALLEN
OVER THE S WASHINGTON AND N OREGON COAST AND COAST RANGE...WHERE
GENERALLY 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED. FAST RESPONDING STREAMS IN THIS AREA SUCH AS THE GRAYS
RIVER AND THE NASELLE RIVER AS SHOWING SHARP RISES OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS. WE WILL BE MONITORING CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AS THE
LATEST FORECAST FOR THE THE GRAYS HAS THE RIVER STAGE REACHING JUST
SHORT OF FLOOD STAGE. AS THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT PUSHES SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST...THE BAND OF HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MORE
FOCUSED OVER THE CASCADES...WILLAMETTE VALLEY...AND OREGON COAST
RANGE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. FORECASTED RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THE
ENTIRE EVENT AREA ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 1-2 INCHES IN THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY...2-4 INCHES ALONG THE COAST...AND 3-5 INCHES FOR
MOST OF OUR HIGHER TERRAIN. IN ADDITION TO WATCHING OUR FAST
RESPONDING RIVERS AND STREAMS DRAINING THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WILL KEEP
AN EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING OVER
THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS. THIS THREAT COULD BE EXACERBATED BY FALLEN
LEAVES CLOGGING STORM DRAINS.
THE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAVE BEEN GUSTY...BUT HAVE
FALLEN SHORT OF EXPECTATIONS FOR THE MOST PART. MOST BEACH AND
HEADLAND LOCATIONS HAVE TOPPED OUT AROUND 45-55 MPH...WITH A FEW
SPOTS GUSTING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ALONG THE NORTH OREGON
COAST. THE STRONGER WINDS ARE NOW CONFINED MAINLY TO THE CENTRAL
OREGON COAST AND COAST RANGE. DECIDED TO ALLOW THE HIGH WIND WARNING
TO EXPIRE FOR THE NORTH OREGON COAST AS OF 9 AM. THE LATEST RUNS OF
THE SHORT TERM HRRR AND RAP MODELS INDICATE THAT A WAVE MOVING ALONG
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY RE-ENERGIZE THE WINDS ALONG THE CENTRAL OREGON
COAST AGAIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THUS...THE HIGH WIND WARNING
CURRENTLY SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT NOON MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED. WILL
MONITOR THIS POSSIBILITY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. PYLE
.REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION REMAINS UNCHANGED...
THURSDAY THE MAIN FRONTAL ZONE WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA...THOUGH SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE. RAINFALL THURSDAY WILL BE
CONSIDERABLY LESS THAN WEDNESDAY. COULD BE A COUPLE SUNBREAKS BETWEEN
SHOWERS...SO INCREASED MAX TEMPS SLIGHTLY.
THERE IS ANOTHER STRONG AND WET STORM EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH ALONG
THE COAST AND IMPACT NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
SIGNIFICANTLY ON FRIDAY INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. WHILE
THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODELS...THIS SYSTEM IS
LOOKING QUITE WET AGAIN...WITH A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL PROBABLY BRING
MORE WIDESPREAD HIGH WINDS TO THE COAST AND A SIGNIFICANT NUMBER OF
TRACKS SUGGEST POSSIBLY VERY WINDY CONDITIONS INLAND AS WELL. AUTUMN
IS KICKING INTO FULL GEAR WITH A BANG.WEAGLE/TOLLESON
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE
TO KEEP THE REGION IN AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS FRONTAL SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH EVERY OTHER. WHILE SOME SUBTLE
DIFFERENCES REMAIN...MODELS REMAIN IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT
ANOTHER POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE BRINGING A
ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS AND POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINFALL FOR LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. SHOWERS LIKELY LINGER FOR SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY FOR MORE RAINFALL.
WHILE SOME QUESTION REMAINS AS TO HOW THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL
EVOLVE AND TRACK...AND JUST HOW STRONG THEY WILL BE...IT SEEMS
LIKELY THAT WE WILL REMAIN IN AN ACTIVE PATTERN WITH WET WEATHER AT
TIMES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.CULLEN
&&
.AVIATION...A MIX OF IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST
SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON TO MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
WITH ONLY OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS...PARTICULARLY AT KAST.
CONDITIONS MAY HOLD IN IFR A BIT LONGER AT KONP. FURTHER
INLAND...WEAKENING WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND
STEADY RAIN MAY PRODUCE A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS...AND
SCATTERED BRIEF BOUTS OF IFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...INCREASING LOW
LEVEL INSTABILITY SHOULD ALLOW ALL INTERIOR TAF SITES TO GENERALLY
RETURN TO VFR OVERNIGHT...LIKELY LASTING THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING STEADY RAIN
TODAY. HOWEVER...BREEZY SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS SHOULD KEEP CIGS
AND VISIBILITIES VFR THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. AS WINDS WEAKEN
TOWARDS 00Z TO 06Z THURSDAY...MVFR TO EVEN BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS
MAY DEVELOP FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND THIS TIME. HOWEVER...INCREASING
LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO VFR. /NEUMAN
&&
.MARINE...A COLD FRONT REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE WATERS...STRETCHING
FROM BUOY 50 NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST. SOUTH OF
THE FRONT WINDS ARE GENERALLY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WITH
GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KT. HOWEVER...A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS LIKELY
DEVELOPING FURTHER TO THE WEST ALONG THE FRONT...AND MAY PUSH THE
FRONT BACK NORTHWARD AND TEMPORARILY STRENGTHEN IT THIS AFTERNOON.
A FEW SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST GALE FORCE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE INNER WATERS...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE CENTRAL OREGON
COAST. AS A RESULT...KEPT THE GALE WARNING GOING FOR THE CENTRAL
OREGON WATERS AND WILL DECIDE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO WHETHER OR
NOT TO EXTEND IT INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS BASED ON THE LATEST
TRENDS IN THE MODELS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED
MODELS ARE CURRENTLY WAY OVERDONE ON THEIR WIND SPEEDS...MAKING
IT DIFFICULT TO TRUST THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. AS A
RESULT...THE WIND FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE A LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST EVEN IF THE GALE WARNING IS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE
OR IF IT IS EXTENDED.
SEAS ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING ABOVE MODEL GUIDANCE...GENERALLY IN THE
17 TO 19 FT RANGE. GIVEN WINDS HAVE DROPPED CONSIDERABLY ACROSS
THE WATERS...SEAS SHOULD RESPOND FAIRLY QUICK IN THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS AND DROP INTO THE 14 TO 16 FT RANGE BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
SEAS MAY HOLD STEADY FOR A COUPLE HOURS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING DEPENDING ON WHETHER OR NOT THE AFOREMENTIONED WINDS
MATERIALIZE...BUT OTHERWISE THEY SHOULD CONTINUE A DOWNWARD TREND
INTO THE 11 TO 13 FT RANGE BY THURSDAY MORNING.
SEAS SHOULD DROP BELOW 10 FT LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. MODELS
CONTINUE TO CONVERGE TOWARDS A COMMON SOLUTION THAT WOULD RESULT
IN A DEEPENING 985MB-ISH LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHWARD INSIDE 130
W. THIS WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY PRODUCE GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE
WATERS...WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS OF 50 KT OR
GREATER SATURDAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF 20 FT OR MORE SEAS WILL
CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY.
IN ADDITION...ANOTHER STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING AT LEAST GALE FORCE WINDS MAY IMPACT THE WATERS EARLY
NEXT WEEK. /NEUMAN
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON PDT TODAY FOR CENTRAL OREGON COAST.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THURSDAY
FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
OUT 60 NM.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR COASTAL WATERS
FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 5 AM PDT
THURSDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 3 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
OUT 10 NM.
&&
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR NORTH OREGON
COAST.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON PDT TODAY FOR CENTRAL OREGON COAST.
WA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR SOUTH
WASHINGTON COAST.
PZ...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR COASTAL WATERS
FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 5 AM
PDT THURSDAY.
&&
$$
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1254 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1013 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS
AFTERNOON AND LINGER THEM INTO THIS EVENING...AHEAD OF THE MAIN
BAND OF PRECIP EXPECTED TO MOVE IN LATER TONIGHT. IF RAIN SHOWERS
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON THEY WILL BE ON THE LEADING EDGE OF 850 MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT. THERE IS SOME WEAK ELEVATED CAPE TO WORK WITH
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING RAISING THE CONCERN FOR AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. THE NAM FORECAST SOUNDING FROM KLSE
IS SHOWING AROUND 350 J/KG WHEN LIFTING FROM 850 MB. IF THIS CAPE
IS REALIZED...WE COULD SEE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES. CONFIDENCE IS
LOW ON ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING SO WILL NOT INCLUDE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AT
THIS TIME. THE REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
AT 3 AM...A 1030 MB SURFACE HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER ONTARIO. THIS
HAS PRODUCED LIGHT WINDS ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN AND CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS HAS ALLOWED DENSE
VALLEY FOG TO DEVELOP IN THE WISCONSIN AND KICKAPOO RIVER VALLEYS.
MEANWHILE THE RAP SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE WINDS
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING. HOWEVER WE MAY HAVE JUST ENOUGH TIME TO BUILD A SHALLOW
NOCTURNAL INVERSION THAT MAY ALLOW SOME STRATUS AND SOME PATCHY
VALLEY FOG TO DEVELOP IN THE MISSISSIPPI CHANNEL AND ITS
TRIBUTARIES.
FOR TONIGHT...THE 22.00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THIS RESULTS...IN
MODERATE TO STRONG 900 TO 800 MB FRONTOGENESIS TO DEVELOP ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR AND THERE WILL MODERATE
850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT. OVERALL LIKE THE TIMING OF NMM AND
ARW...SO TRENDED THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TOWARD THEM FOR
TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
ON THURSDAY...THE 22.00Z MODELS ARE VERY SIMILAR WITH THE FASTER
MOVEMENT OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION. THIS RESULT
IN A RAPID DECREASE IN THE 900 TO 800 MB FRONTOGENESIS AND THE
850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT MOVING EAST OF THE AREA BY THE
AFTERNOON. THIS RESULTS IN A QUICK DECREASE IN THE PRECIPITATION
FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS
SEEMS TO BE HANDLED REALLY WELL IN THE ARW AND NMM...SO TRENDED
PRECIPITATION TIMING AND PLACEMENT CLOSER TO THEM. ALSO MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW A RAPID DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER ALONG AND WEST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS PROVIDES A BETTER
OPPORTUNITY THAT WE COULD POTENTIALLY SEE THE PARTIAL SOLAR
ECLIPSE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.
ON FRIDAY...ALL OF THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA. THE NAM
SOUNDINGS HAVE A MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILE AND STRONGER 850 MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT THAN THE GFS...GEM...AND ECMWF. AS A RESULT...
IT GENERATES SHOWERS AND THE OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE DRY. DUE TO
THIS...OPTED TO KEEP THE PERIOD DRY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB 2
TO 4C WARMER THAN THURSDAY. MIXING 875 MB TEMPERATURES TO THE
SURFACE RESULTS IN TEMPERATURES MUCH CLOSER TO THE 22.03Z SREF
THAN THE SUPER BLEND...SO TRENDED THEM MORE TOWARD THE LATTER.
FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG 150 KNOT
200 MB JET ROUNDING THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE. THE 21.12Z NAEFS STANDARDIZED ANOMALY SHOWED THAT A JET
THIS STRONG HAD A RETURN FREQUENCY OF ONCE IN EVERY 5 YEARS. THIS
RESULTS IN A RETROGRESSION OF THIS RIDGE WHICH IN TURN ALLOWS
COOLER 850 MB TEMPERATURES TO MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION. THERE IS
A 6 TO 8C DROP ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN AND 4 TO 6C ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA. DUE TO THIS...LOWERED THE
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ANYWHERE FROM 2 TO 6 DEGREES.
ON SUNDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS THE
AREA AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST INTO THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES. 850 MB TEMPERATURES RISE 6 TO 8C INTO THE 10C TO 14C
RANGE. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 1.8 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL. THE SUPER BLEND LOOKS TOO COLD...SO RAISED THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO THE BIAS CORRECTED GFS AND ECMWF.
FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THE MODELS ARE DIFFERING ON THE
TRACK OF A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION. THE GFS IS MUCH FURTHER THAN EITHER THE ECMWF OR GEM. DUE
TO THIS...STAYED CLOSED TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS FOR TEMPERATURES
AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
A TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING RAIN AND
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO THE TAF SITES. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 27 KTS
AT KRST AND 16 KTS AT KLSE. A MID CLOUD DECK...WITH BASES AROUND
6KFT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY
GENERATE A FEW SPRINKLES AS IT MOVES THROUGH...HOWEVER IT APPEARS
UNLIKELY THAT WE WILL SEE ANY PRECIP OUT OF THIS DECK. RAIN WILL
MOVE INTO KRST AROUND 06Z TONIGHT WITH CLOUD BASES LOWERING TO
AROUND 3500 FT...THEN FALLING THROUGH 9Z TO AROUND 800 FT. AT
KLSE...CLOUD BASES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO AROUND 4KFT AROUND 08Z
THEN LOWER TO AROUND 1500 FT BY 12Z. THE IFR MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON
TOMORROW AS THE SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WETENKAMP
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...WETENKAMP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1246 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
THE LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A LARGE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM STRETCHING FROM QUEBEC TO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES TO THE GULF COAST. OUTSIDE OF A SMALL AREA OF BROKEN STRATUS
AROUND CHICAGO...CLEAR SKIES EXIST ACROSS THE REGION THANKS TO
STRONG SUBSIDENCE BENEATH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
IS MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND THE NORTHWEST GREAT PLAINS WHERE A
FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE OCCURRING. AS THIS STORM SYSTEM MOVES
EAST...PRECIP CHANCES AND TIMING ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.
TODAY...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES...BUT VERY DRY AIR WILL EXIST THROUGH THE COLUMN.
ALTHOUGH WILL SEE CIRRUS BEGIN TO INVADE THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE STATE DURING THE AFTERNOON...SHOULD SEE SUNNY SKIES
WITH HIGHS A FEW DEGREES WARMER IN MANY LOCATIONS THAN YESTERDAY.
TONIGHT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE.
THE VERY DRY AIR WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD TO START THE EVENING BUT
SHOULD SEE CLOUDS INCREASE MID TO LATE EVENING OVER NORTH-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. MODELS INDICATE
A FEW SHOWERS COULD MOVE INTO NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN AROUND
MIDNIGHT IN THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION REGIME AND LEFT A SMALL
CHANCE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SCENARIO. BUT BETTER CHANCES WILL MOVE
INTO THE ROUTE 39/51 CORRIDOR LATE. THE INCREASING CLOUDS AND
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT CALLS FOR A WARMER NIGHT. LOWS RANGING
FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTHEAST TO AROUND 40 WEST.
THURSDAY...THE SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE STATE. A BAND OF RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT WITH
PRECIP MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE
MORNING AND INTO EASTERN WISCONSIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. VARIOUS
MODELS MOVE THE PRECIP THROUGH THE REGION AT DIFFERENT TIMES (DUE TO
DIFFERENT HANDLING OF THE SPLITTING OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY)...SO THERE
IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO TIMING. REGARDLESS...AS THE RAIN
MOVES INTO MORE STABLE AIR...INTENSITY AND COVERAGE SHOULD GRADUALLY
WANE THROUGH THE DAY. WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCES DURING THE
MORNING CONSEQUENTLY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THE MOST IN EASTERN
WISCONSIN BEFORE THE RAIN ARRIVES AND ADJUSTED TEMPS A BIT.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
SHOWERS WILL EXIT THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT MOVE INTO MICHIGAN. THE NAM
FORECASTS ADDITIONAL SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE MUCH WEAKER
WITH THE SYSTEM AND ARE DRY. LEFT OUT ANY PRECIPITATION FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT. DRY NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
RISING HEIGHTS SHOULD RESULT IN SURFACE TEMPERATURES CLIMBING
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.
SPLIT FLOW FORECAST BY MODELS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
SOME JET ENERGY MOVING BY TO THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
PROVIDING UPPER SUPPORT FOR POSSIBLE ELEVATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF A WARM FRONT. JET ENERGY LIFTING OUT OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS IS FORECAST TO PRODUCE A SYNOPTIC SCALE SYSTEM
LIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE ARE BIG DIFFERENCES IN TRACK AND
INTENSITY BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS RELATED TO THE AMOUNT OF
PHASING WITH NORTHERN STREAM JET ENERGY.
AFTER THAT IT LOOKS LIKE DRY NORTHWEST FLOW RETURNS FOR THE MIDDLE
AND END OF NEXT WEEK WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. OVERALL IT
LOOKS LIKE A SEASONABLE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NOVEMBER
WITH MODERATE AMPLITUDE PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
OUTSIDE OF SCT CU IN FAR EASTERN WISC...GOOD FLYING CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
TONIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WHICH WILL BRING IN IFR CIGS
FROM W TO E AFTER 12Z THURSDAY.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......JKL