Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 10/21/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
922 AM MST SUN OCT 19 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...BRINGING A CHANCE OF MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND STORMS. ANOTHER
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY HOWEVER ONLY A FEW
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. CONDITIONS WILL WARM UP BY MID
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SHEARED UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING. UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS REVEALS THE 250-300MB LOW IS OVER NORTHEAST ARIZONA WHILE
THE 500-700MB LOW IS DISPLACED OVER THE AZ/MEX BORDER. RADAR IMAGERY
REVEALS A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE FORMED IN THE MOUNTAINS
NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX...EVEN SEEING A BIT OF THUNDER ACROSS THE AREA
THIS MORNING. NOT REALLY SURPRISING AS BOTH TWC AND FGZ 12Z
SOUNDINGS DEPICTED NEARLY DRY-ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES IN THE MID
LEVELS.
FOR THE REST OF TODAY...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND EXPAND
IN THE MOUNTAINS AND WITH WEAK EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT...THEY MAY TRY
AND DRIFT INTO THE LOWER DESERTS. WITH VERY MEAGER INSTABILITY ON
THE ORDER OF 100 J/KG ACROSS THE DESERTS...CONVECTION WILL STRUGGLE
FROM PHOENIX WESTWARD. THE HRRR IS CERTAINLY THE MOST AGGRESSIVE OF
ALL THE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS AND SUGGESTED THERE SHOULD HAVE
BEEN PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTH VALLEY AROUND 15Z THIS MORNING. THE
LOCAL WRFS...LOCAL WRF ENSEMBLE...SSEO...AND SREF ALL HAVE A MORE
REALISTIC ADVERTISEMENT OF STORM CHANCES LATER AND THIS MATCHES WHAT
WAS ALREADY IN THE FORECAST. ONLY MAKING MINOR REVISIONS TO THE
ORIENTATION OF POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. STORMS COULD LINGER
SHORTLY AFTER 00Z BEFORE DAYTIME HEATING IS COMPLETELY LOST BUT
OTHERWISE THE STORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY THIS EVENING.
TEMPS LOOK GOOD...ANOTHER DAY AROUND 90 LOOKS LIKE A SAFE BET. NO
OTHER CHANGES FORTHCOMING.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MONDAY...
ALTHOUGH THE LAGGING AND SLOWER MOVING 500 MB TROF FINALLY SHIFTS
INTO SOUTHEAST AZ MONDAY AFTERNOON...THE 300/250 MB CIRCULATION
CENTERS ACCELERATE INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
RESULTING IN STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE OVER AZ. THEREFORE MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST OVER OUR AREA...SOUTHEAST CA TO SOUTH CENTRAL AZ.
TUESDAY...
THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL MOVE INTO
WESTERN STATES ON TUESDAY. ANY PRECIP WILL BE CONFINED TO PARTS OF
UTAH AND ALONG THE EASTERN AZ BORDER...BUT MAINLY IN NEW MEXICO.
THEREFORE EXCEPT FOR SOME HIGH CLOUDS...FORECASTS WILL REMAIN DRY
WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN BUILDING OVER THE FORECAST
AREA WEDNESDAY...THEN STRENGTHEN INTO THE WEEKEND. THEREFORE NEARLY
CLOUDLESS SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
LATE OCTOBER.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
LINGER THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH CLEARING SKIES THIS EVENING.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN TO THE EAST AND NORTH
OF THE PHOENIX AREA...STAYING CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED AND NO
AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
A PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS PASSING THROUGH THE AREA WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS EAST OF PHOENIX...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A GRADUAL DRYING TREND IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITIES IN
THE LOWER DESERTS RANGING FROM AROUND 20 PERCENT ON TUESDAY TO THE
LOW TO MID TEENS ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND
FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERNS EACH DAY.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...LEINS/VASQUEZ
AVIATION...KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...MCLANE/CB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
1045 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 810 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014
MADE A QUICK UPDATE TO THE SHORT TERM POP/WX/QPF FIELDS FOR
SHOWERS OVER DOTSERO...WOLCOTT...AND GILMAN AREA THIS MORNING.
CLOUD TOPS ON IR SATELLITE ARE WARMING...AN INDICATION THAT THESE
SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. AFTERNOON
FORECAST STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A STRAY TSTORM
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SAN JUANS AND POTENTIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL
MTNS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014
MIDLEVEL CLOUDS PERSIST THIS MORNING WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT SHOWING
UP ON RADAR NEAR THE GRAND AND BATTLEMENT MESAS. THE GREATER
RESOLUTION HRRR MODEL IS PICKING UP ON THIS REMARKABLY WELL THOUGH
IT DOES SHOW THE ENHANCEMENT ENDING IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. AS
FAR AS THE BIG PICTURE IS CONCERNED...CLOSED LOW OVER SRN CALIF
AND WRN AZ IS PROGGED TO FILL TODAY AS IT MOVES EAST WHILE
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL WINDS BRING SOME MOISTURE UP FROM THE
SOUTH. MODELS INDICATING ANOTHER DAY OF SHOWERS FOR MAINLY HIGHER
ELEVATIONS SOUTH OF I-70. WHILE NO STORMS FORMED YESTERDAY...CHANCES
LOOK BETTER TODAY AS A BIT MORE INSTABILITY IS PRESENT AND LESS
CLOUDS WILL ALLOW MORE DAYTIME HEATING. WHILE MOST CONVECTION WILL
DIE DOWN SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...A FEW SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE AFTER
THAT. THE REST OF THE CWA WILL SEE MORE SUN THAN YESTERDAY AS WARM
TEMPS CONTINUE.
TONIGHT-MONDAY...IN SPITE OF THE BLOCKING NATURE OF THE UPPER
PATTERN...BOTH THE NW MEXICAN LOW AND THE CO HIGH REMAIN
PROGRESSIVE. THE MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE SOUTH FLOW WILL
PRODUCE A FEW NOCTURNAL SHOWERS TONIGHT OVER THE SOUTHERN MTNS.
THE BREAK DOWN OF THE RIDGE ON MONDAY INCREASES MARGINAL
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MTNS FOR A MENTION OF ISOLATED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE NORTH
OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LOW WEAKENS OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO AS THE PACIFIC TROUGH COMES ONSHORE MONDAY NIGHT THEN LIFTS
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY TUESDAY
NIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE SPREADS INTO THE NORTHERN ZONES WITH 700
SPECIFIC HUMIDITY UNIFORMALY NEAR 6 G/KG. SCATTERED SHOWERS
MONDAY NIGHT INCREASE ON TUESDAY WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
FAVORING THE SOUTH. THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A 60KT JET WORKS
ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.
SNOW LEVELS LOWER TO AROUND 9KFT TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME SNOW
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED IN THE SAN JUAN AND WEST ELK/RAGGEDS MTN
RANGES.
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SFC
COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN NEAR 9K
FEET WITH A FEW MORE INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL DROP SEVERAL DEGREES AS COLD AIR
FILTERS IN WITH BIGGEST CHANGES FELT UP NORTH. TEMPERATURE
CONTRAST NOT EXPECTED TO BE TOO GREAT THE FURTHER SOUTH ONE GOES.
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD BRINGS HIGH PRESSURE. THE
AXIS OF THIS RIDGE WILL GET FORCED ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDWEST AS
AN ENERGETIC JET STREAM TAKES AIM AT THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WE
WILL REMAIN DRY AS THE NWRN STATES SEE A PROLONGED WED PERIOD. SOME
HIGH CLOUDS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS TEMPERATURES START WARMING UP
UNDER SWLY FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1031 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014
MIDLEVEL CIGS CONTINUE TO BE REPORTED LATE THIS MORNING AT ASE
AND EGE AS AN AREA OF ISOLATED SHOWERS SLOWLY DISSIPATES AS IT
MOVES EAST. MORE SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY
GENERALLY OVER HIGHER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70.
CONVECTION WILL BEGIN AROUND 18Z REACHING A MAXIMUM BETWEEN 21Z
AND 00Z. EVEN SO...FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR FOR THE
MOST PART. SOME MTN OBSCURATIONS...ESPECIALLY THE SAN
JUANS...ARE EXPECTED TODAY.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JAM
SHORT TERM...TGR/JOE
LONG TERM...TGR/JOE
AVIATION...TGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
814 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 810 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014
MADE A QUICK UPDATE TO THE SHORT TERM POP/WX/QPF FIELDS FOR
SHOWERS OVER DOTSERO...WOLCOTT...AND GILMAN AREA THIS MORNING.
CLOUD TOPS ON IR SATELLITE ARE WARMING...AN INDICATION THAT THESE
SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. AFTERNOON
FORECAST STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A STRAY TSTORM
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SAN JUANS AND POTENTIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL
MTNS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014
MIDLEVEL CLOUDS PERSIST THIS MORNING WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT SHOWING
UP ON RADAR NEAR THE GRAND AND BATTLEMENT MESAS. THE GREATER
RESOLUTION HRRR MODEL IS PICKING UP ON THIS REMARKABLY WELL THOUGH
IT DOES SHOW THE ENHANCEMENT ENDING IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. AS
FAR AS THE BIG PICTURE IS CONCERNED...CLOSED LOW OVER SRN CALIF
AND WRN AZ IS PROGGED TO FILL TODAY AS IT MOVES EAST WHILE
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL WINDS BRING SOME MOISTURE UP FROM THE
SOUTH. MODELS INDICATING ANOTHER DAY OF SHOWERS FOR MAINLY HIGHER
ELEVATIONS SOUTH OF I-70. WHILE NO STORMS FORMED YESTERDAY...CHANCES
LOOK BETTER TODAY AS A BIT MORE INSTABILITY IS PRESENT AND LESS
CLOUDS WILL ALLOW MORE DAYTIME HEATING. WHILE MOST CONVECTION WILL
DIE DOWN SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...A FEW SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE AFTER
THAT. THE REST OF THE CWA WILL SEE MORE SUN THAN YESTERDAY AS WARM
TEMPS CONTINUE.
TONIGHT-SUNDAY...IN SPITE OF THE BLOCKING NATURE OF THE UPPER
PATTERN...BOTH THE NW MEXICAN LOW AND THE CO HIGH REMAIN
PROGRESSIVE. THE MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE SOUTH FLOW WILL
PRODUCE A FEW NOCTURNAL SHOWERS TONIGHT OVER THE SOUTHERN MTNS.
THE BREAK DOWN OF THE RIDGE ON MONDAY INCREASES MARGINAL
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MTNS FOR A MENTION OF ISOLATED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE NORTH
OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LOW WEAKENS OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO AS THE PACIFIC TROUGH COMES ONSHORE MONDAY NIGHT THEN LIFTS
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY TUESDAY
NIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE SPREADS INTO THE NORTHERN ZONES WITH 700
SPECIFIC HUMIDITY UNIFORMALY NEAR 6 G/KG. SCATTERED SHOWERS
MONDAY NIGHT INCREASE ON TUESDAY WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
FAVORING THE SOUTH. THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A 60KT JET WORKS
ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.
SNOW LEVELS LOWER TO AROUND 9KFT TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME SNOW
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED IN THE SAN JUAN AND WEST ELK/RAGGEDS MTN
RANGES.
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SFC
COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN NEAR 9K
FEET WITH A FEW MORE INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL DROP SEVERAL DEGREES AS COLD AIR
FILTERS IN WITH BIGGEST CHANGES FELT UP NORTH. TEMPERATURE
CONTRAST NOT EXPECTED TO BE TOO GREAT THE FURTHER SOUTH ONE GOES.
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD BRINGS HIGH PRESSURE. THE
AXIS OF THIS RIDGE WILL GET FORCED ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDWEST AS
AN ENERGETIC JET STREAM TAKES AIM AT THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WE
WILL REMAIN DRY AS THE NWRN STATES SEE A PROLONGED WED PERIOD. SOME
HIGH CLOUDS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS TEMPERATURES START WARMING UP
UNDER SWLY FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 251 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014
MIDLEVEL CIGS CONTINUE TO BE REPORTED THIS MORNING WITH MOST CIGS
AROUND 10K THOUGH A FEW SITES REPORTING CIGS NEAR 5K FEET AT
TIMES. MORE SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY
GENERALLY OVER HIGHER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70.
CONVECTION WILL BEING AROUND 18Z REACHING A MAXIMUM BETWEEN 21Z
AND 00Z. EVEN SO...FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR FOR THE
MOST PART. SOME MTN OBSCURATIONS...ESPECIALLY THE SAN
JUANS...EXPECTED TODAY.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JAM
SHORT TERM...TGR/JOE
LONG TERM...TGR/JOE
AVIATION...TGR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
254 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014
MIDLEVEL CLOUDS PERSIST THIS MORNING WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT SHOWING
UP ON RADAR NEAR THE GRAND AND BATTLEMENT MESAS. THE GREATER
RESOLUTION HRRR MODEL IS PICKING UP ON THIS REMARKABLY WELL THOUGH
IT DOES SHOW THE ENHANCEMENT ENDING IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. AS
FAR AS THE BIG PICTURE IS CONCERNED...CLOSED LOW OVER SRN CALIF
AND WRN AZ IS PROGGED TO FILL TODAY AS IT MOVES EAST WHILE
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL WINDS BRING SOME MOISTURE UP FROM THE
SOUTH. MODELS INDICATING ANOTHER DAY OF SHOWERS FOR MAINLY HIGHER
ELEVATIONS SOUTH OF I-70. WHILE NO STORMS FORMED YESTERDAY...CHANCES
LOOK BETTER TODAY AS A BIT MORE INSTABILITY IS PRESENT AND LESS
CLOUDS WILL ALLOW MORE DAYTIME HEATING. WHILE MOST CONVECTION WILL
DIE DOWN SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...A FEW SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE AFTER
THAT. THE REST OF THE CWA WILL SEE MORE SUN THAN YESTERDAY AS WARM
TEMPS CONTINUE.
TONIGHT-SUNDAY...IN SPITE OF THE BLOCKING NATURE OF THE UPPER
PATTERN...BOTH THE NW MEXICAN LOW AND THE CO HIGH REMAIN
PROGRESSIVE. THE MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE SOUTH FLOW WILL
PRODUCE A FEW NOCTURNAL SHOWERS TONIGHT OVER THE SOUTHERN MTNS.
THE BREAK DOWN OF THE RIDGE ON MONDAY INCREASES MARGINAL
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MTNS FOR A MENTION OF ISOLATED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE NORTH
OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LOW WEAKENS OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO AS THE PACIFIC TROUGH COMES ONSHORE MONDAY NIGHT THEN LIFTS
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY TUESDAY
NIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE SPREADS INTO THE NORTHERN ZONES WITH 700
SPECIFIC HUMIDITY UNIFORMALY NEAR 6 G/KG. SCATTERED SHOWERS
MONDAY NIGHT INCREASE ON TUESDAY WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
FAVORING THE SOUTH. THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A 60KT JET WORKS
ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.
SNOW LEVELS LOWER TO AROUND 9KFT TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME SNOW
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED IN THE SAN JUAN AND WEST ELK/RAGGEDS MTN
RANGES.
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SFC
COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN NEAR 9K
FEET WITH A FEW MORE INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL DROP SEVERAL DEGREES AS COLD AIR
FILTERS IN WITH BIGGEST CHANGES FELT UP NORTH. TEMPERATURE
CONTRAST NOT EXPECTED TO BE TOO GREAT THE FURTHER SOUTH ONE GOES.
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD BRINGS HIGH PRESSURE. THE
AXIS OF THIS RIDGE WILL GET FORCED ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDWEST AS
AN ENERGETIC JET STREAM TAKES AIM AT THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WE
WILL REMAIN DRY AS THE NWRN STATES SEE A PROLONGED WED PERIOD. SOME
HIGH CLOUDS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS TEMPERATURES START WARMING UP
UNDER SWLY FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 251 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014
MIDLEVEL CIGS CONTINUE TO BE REPORTED THIS MORNING WITH MOST CIGS
AROUND 10K THOUGH A FEW SITES REPORTING CIGS NEAR 5K FEET AT
TIMES. MORE SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY
GENERALLY OVER HIGHER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70.
CONVECTION WILL BEING AROUND 18Z REACHING A MAXIMUM BETWEEN 21Z
AND 00Z. EVEN SO...FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR FOR THE
MOST PART. SOME MTN OBSCURATIONS...ESPECIALLY THE SAN
JUANS...EXPECTED TODAY.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TGR/JOE
LONG TERM...TGR/JOE
AVIATION...TGR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1010 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014
.DISCUSSION...
249 PM CDT
TONIGHT...
UPPER LEVEL WAVE CONTINUES TO ROTATE OVER NORTHEAST ONTARIO...WITH A
A COUPLE WEAK LOBES OF VORTICITY ROTATING AROUND THE BACK EDGE OF
THIS SYSTEM...PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. VISIBLE
IMAGERY SHOWS CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER ACROSS MICHIGAN...STRETCHING
WEST ACROSS THE LAKE AND BEGINNING TO SLIDE INTO FAR NORTHEAST IL.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS WAVE AS IT
PUSHES SOUTHEAST ACROSS WISCONSIN AND PERHAPS INTO FAR NORTHEAST IL
LATE THIS EVE...BEFORE SHIFTING EAST INTO FAR NORTHWEST IN BY
DAYBREAK TUE. OTHERWISE EXPECT CLOUDS TO THICKEN THIS EVE ACROSS THE
CWFA...PERHAPS LESS CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE FAR WEST/SOUTHWEST
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE CLOUD COVER TONIGHT...THIS
SHOULD KEEP TEMPS GENERALLY AROUND 40 TO THE LOW 40S TONIGHT.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
500MB TROUGH AXIS WILL BEGIN TO PUSH EAST...WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGE BEGINNING TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THIS WILL BRING A BROAD SFC RIDGE TO THE AREA STRETCHING FROM
CENTRAL CANADA SOUTH TO THE WESTERN GULF. GUIDANCE THEN CONTINUES TO
MAINTAIN THIS FEATURE THROUGH THUR MORNING...HOWEVER THERE IS A WEAK
WAVE SLIDING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WED NGT THAT IS PROGGED
TO LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE CWFA THUR AFTN/EVE. THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING
SOME LIGHT PRECIP TO THE AREA...BUT AT THIS TIME HAVE ONLY GONE WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS GIVEN THE MOISTURE AVAILABILITY APPEARS TO BE
MINIMAL. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPR 50S TO LOW 60S...WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO FEATURE A TROUGH PERSISTING ALONG THE FAR
SOUTHWEST CONUS...ALLOWING RIDGING TO DOMINATE THE CENTRAL CONUS
LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THE DRY
PATTERN FOR THE REGION. IN ADDITION IT APPEARS TEMPS WILL BE ABLE TO
STEADILY MODERATE...PERHAPS REACHING THE UPR 60S TO ARND 70.
ENSEMBLES DO SUGGEST THAT TOWARDS THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND THE
RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT EAST...WITH A TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE
CENTRAL CONUS AND PERHAPS BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER BACK INTO THE
REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BEACHLER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 03Z...
* NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS GREATER THAN 10 KT WITH GUSTS OF 17-20 KT
TUESDAY.
* CIGS LOWER TO MVFR TUESDAY MORNING WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT MDW.
* MVFR CIGS PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY THEN SCATTER LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY TUESDAY EVENING.
MDB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 03Z...
RESIDUAL LAKE INFLUENCE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE NORTHEAST WINDS AT
ORD/MDW/GYY. EXPECT THE LAKE IMPACT TO FADE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO ALLOWING WINDS TO TURN MORE STEADILY TO THE NORTH/NORTH-
NORTHWEST. CIGS WILL LOWER THROUGH THE NIGHT AND SHOULD BECOME
MVFR TUESDAY MORNING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVER LAKE MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING
WHICH WILL LIKELY IMPACT GYY AT TIMES. THE ILLINOIS SHORELINE WILL
PROBABLY ALSO SEE SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS WHICH MAY REACH ORD/MDW WITH
MDW HAVING THE GREATER POTENTIAL.
STEADY NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS WILL SET UP TUESDAY MORNING WITH
GUSTS INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE WHICH WILL EASE OUT TOWARDS RFD IN
THE AFTERNOON...THEN ELSEWHERE WITH SUNSET. MVFR CIGS LOOK TO
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING RFD WHICH
SHOULD SEE LESS COVERAGE BUT MAY VARY BETWEEN SCT AND BKN. DO NOT
HAVE A GREAT DEAL OF CONFIDENCE IN HOW LONG MVFR PERSISTS INTO THE
AFTERNOON OR EVENING BUT SUSPECT THERE WILL BE AT LEAST SOME
SCATTERING LATER IN THE DAY.
MDB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 03Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS LOWERING TO MVFR TUESDAY MORNING
PERSISTING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF LIFTING/SCATTERING TO VFR TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN SHRA OCCURRING AT MDW AND LOW CONFIDENCE IN
OCCURRENCE AT ORD.
MDB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
* WEDNESDAY...DRY/VFR. EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS.
* THURSDAY...DRY/VFR. SOUTH WINDS.
* FRIDAY...DRY/VFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS.
* SATURDAY...DRY/VFR. WEST WINDS.
* SUNDAY...DRY/VFR. SOUTH WINDS.
MDB
&&
.MARINE...
250 PM...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE REGION CENTERED
OVER NORTHERN LAKE HURON LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY DRIFT EAST OVERNIGHT. THIS LOW WILL THEN REACH LAKE ONTARIO
AROUND DAYBREAK TUE. THE BACK EDGE OF THIS LOW CONTINUES TO
FEATURE A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT...WHICH HAS PRODUCED GUSTY
WINDS JUST BEGINNING TO SLIDE OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
LAKE. THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY SLIDE SOUTH THIS
EVENING...AND EXPECT NORTH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
ONTARIO WILL BEGIN TO BUILD SOUTH OVERNIGHT...THEN STRETCH FROM
ONTARIO SOUTH TO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY TUE NGT. THIS WILL
BRING MUCH LIGHTER WINDS TO THE LAKE BY WED.
BEACHLER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY.
&&
$$
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[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
905 PM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 900 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014
A cold front will continue to depart to the southeast of Illinois,
as high pressure begins to build into IL from the west. However, a
broad area of cloud cover upstream in eastern Wisconsin and NE
Illinois will continue to stream to the SE and affect our forecast
area mainly northeast of a line from Peoria to Paris. The
additional cloud cover could keep low temps slightly warmer in the
NE areas. Western areas will have more favorable radiational
cooling conditions under clear skies and light winds in the face
of advancing high pressure. That should allow low temps to dip
toward 40 degrees in a few locations west and north of Lincoln.
Clouds should clear out of eastern areas Tuesday morning, for a
mostly sunny day and highs in the upper 50s to low 60s.
Only minor adjustments were needed to low temps and sky
conditions, so no formal product updates will be needed this evening.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014
Weak low pressure over the Great Lakes this afternoon with a weak
boundary trailing out behind it through Central and Southeastern
Illinois. Forecast for the overnight rather quiet with
northwesterly flow continuing, though the winds may be variable at
times, becoming light after sunset. Dry air filtering into the CWA
as the overnight cools should keep the RH just sub saturation. This
in concert with winds at or above 5kt or so...fog issues are not
expected. However, another wave making its way into the larger
scale trof from nrn MN is keeping a lobe of lower clouds a bit
further out to the west. This particular area is expected to dive
southeast in the overnight hours...while the rest of the system
pulls out to the east on the synoptic scale. The NAM is keeping the
llvls far more significant and brushing ILX northeast with the edge
of the more substantial cloud cover. Remaining models not really
holding onto as much. Sat imagery also shows a slow erosion of the
western edge of the clouds...as well as the HRRR supporting the
clouds staying to the north and northeast. It may be close, but
leaving the overnight mostly clear and lows dipping into the low to
mid 40s.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014
As the 500 mb wave cuts off over the eastern Great Lakes tomorrow,
the northeast CWA will be on the southwest fringe of better
moist/cyclonic flow, and will be close to strato-cu deck. Most
high-res models keep thicker cloud cover to our east and will
continue to trend forecast that way. Regardless, highs will be
several degrees below normal, ranging from the mid 50s northeast to
low 60 in the south/southwest.
Wednesday and Thursday...Surface and and upper level ridging shift across
the Midwest ahead of the next upper level weakness moving into the
northern Plains. This will provide clear/dry and seasonably cool
weather. As the next system shifts into the upper Midwest, showers
should overspread Iowa and Missouri early Thursday. However as the
dynamics with this feature shift east of the Mississippi River it
will encounter increasingly dry air and surface/upper ridging. As a
result most of the shower activity is expected to decay during the
afternoon/evening as it shifts through the northern half of the
CWA. Slight chance pops will cover this possibility.
Friday through Monday...Medium range guidance/ensembles show good
agreement that a pronounced warming trend will affect the region.
This will result from troughs affecting the west and east coasts,
allowing upper ridging to build across the central U.S., and drawing
up a thermal ridge from the southern Plains, pushing 850 mb temps to
+12-16 C this weekend. Friday will see some moderation with
readings returning near to slightly above normal. In a rarity for
early fall, highs on Saturday and Sunday are progged to be 10-15
degrees above normal without strong winds aiding in low level warm
advection, due to high pressure in the vicinity. If the GFS is
correct, southerly flow will increase later Sunday in tightening
gradient ahead of the next low pressure complex in the Plains. As
this system shifts east it will bring the next chance of rain to the
region for early next week. Considerable uncertainty exists at
that range, with the 12z ECMWF depicting a much weaker system.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014
VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours, with mostly
clear skies. There remains some concern about the mass of clouds
in eastern Wisc pushing south-southeast into NE Illinois tonight
and coming close to affecting BMI and CMI. Even if a BKN deck
does develop near BMI/CMI later tonight in that airmass, the
clouds should still be VFR around 4k FT. Those clouds should
depart to the east Tues morning.
Winds will start out NW at 5-9kt this evening, then become
variable as high pressure from MN to KS gradually builds eastward.
After sunrise tomorrow, wind direction should become NNE around
8-10kt.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Shimon
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...25
AVIATION...Shimon
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
255 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014
.DISCUSSION...
152 PM CDT
TONIGHT...
VISIBLE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON INDICATES A THIN CIRRUS SHIELD OVER
THE REGION...WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT TO THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS
WISCONSIN AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS PUSHING FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SFC RIDGE HAS DRIFTED SOUTHEAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH HAS ALLOWED LLVL FLOW TO TURN
SOUTHWESTERLY. BETWEEN THE NEXT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND THE
DEPARTING RIDGE...WEAK TROUGHING WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES. THIS HAS PRODUCED A BUMP IN THE GRADIENT AND
RESULTED IN BREEZY CONDS THIS AFTN FROM A GOOD MIXED LAYER.
GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SLIGHTLY...BUT THERE REMAINS SOME CONSISTENCY THAT THE
MOISTURE/PRECIP WILL BE DISPLACED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA THRU THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE WARMER THAN
THE PRIOR NGT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW/MID 40S.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
500MB TROUGH AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT EAST OF THE REGION BY
MIDDAY MON...HOWEVER THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE SOME WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE TRYING TO SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE AND MAY PRODUCE SOME
SPRINKLES/LGT RAIN FOR NORTHWEST IN. HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST
FOR NORTHEAST IL...HOWEVER LATE MON EVE A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS COULD
SNEAK INTO THE CHICAGO METRO AREA INTO TUE MORNING. OTHERWISE EXPECT
THE FAR WESTERN FORECAST AREA TO REMAIN DRY. THEN BROAD
ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW ARRIVES AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THRU
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. TEMPS MON WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST IN
THE UPR 50S TO LOW 60S...THEN COOLING INTO THE LOW/MID 50S FOR
TUE/WED/THUR. WITH HIGH PRES POISED TO BE OVERHEAD TUE
NGT-WED-NGT...LOWS IN MANY AREAS COULD EASILY DIP INTO THE MID 30S.
FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE WITH THE RATHER BENIGN PATTERN INTO THE WEEKEND.
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE SOUTHWEST CONUS...BUT IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN BY
SAT/SUN. HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN LATE IN THE WEEK...HOWEVER CURRENT GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE DRY PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO AT LEAST SAT. TEMPS WILL
STEADILY RETURN TO NEAR SEASONAL CONDS WITH HIGHS ARND 60 TO THE LOW
60S BY THE WEEKEND.
BEACHLER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...
* GUSTY SW WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING
KMD
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
WE HAVE SEEN AN EXPANSION OF MVFR CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
THIS AFTERNOON. AS DAYTIME HEATING CONTINUES THESE CLOUDS ARE
BREAKING UP SOME AS THEY MIGRATE TO THE EAST AND THE BACK EDGE OF
THE BROKEN CLOUDS IS NOW REACHING A LINE FROM KRPJ TO KDKB...THOUGH
THERE WILL LIKELY BE AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON OF
MVFR CIGS FOR THE CHICAGOLAND TERMINALS.
CONCERNS SHIFT TO WIND SPEEDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS LOW
PRESSURE SPREADS TO NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AND A MODEST PRESSURE
GRADIENT SETS UP THROUGH NE ILLNOIS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. WIND
SPEEDS AT 2000 FT WILL PUSH 40 KT. NORMALLY WE WOULD SEE WINDS
EASE AT THE SURFACE AT NIGHT BUT THINKING THAT WE WILL CONTINUE TO
SEE WIND GUSTS THROUGH THE EVENING...LIKELY EVEN INCREASING OVER
THIS AFTERNOON. IF THEY DON`T SURFACE THEN THERE MAY BE A PERIOD
OF LOW LEVEL WIND SPEED SHEAR. GRADIENT SLACKENS SOME AFTER
MIDNIGHT THEN A COLD FRONT BRINGS A SHIFT TO NW WIND. NAM IS
SUGGESTING A BUNCH OF LOW CLOUDS IN THE MORNING BUT NOT BUYING OFF
ON THAT AT THE MOMENT. KMD
KMD
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE WIND TRENDS...THOUGH LOW-MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON
WIND GUST POTENTIAL THIS EVENING.
KMD
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR.
IZZI
&&
.MARINE...
209 AM CDT
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION TONIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RAMP UP TODAY IN
ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM WITH A PERIOD OF NEAR GALE FORCE SOUTHWEST
WINDS EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON
TRANSLATING SOUTH TO SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN THIS EVENING. THE
DURATION OF GALE FORCE GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING LOOKS
TO BE SHORT IN MOST LOCATIONS WITH A DURATION PROBABLY ONLY A
COUPLE-FEW HOURS. GIVEN THE SHORT DURATION AND MARGINAL SET-UP HAVE
OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON GALE HEADLINES AND JUST INCLUDE A FEW GUSTS TO
GALES IN THE GLF/GRIDS. A PERIOD OF FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS IS
EXPECTED LATE MONDAY THOUGH TUESDAY AS LOW MOVES MORE SLOWLY
EASTWARD AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. BY MIDWEEK
WINDS/WAVES SHOULD SUBSIDE ON THE LAKE WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS
EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
IZZI
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-
LMZ745...7 PM SUNDAY TO 3 AM MONDAY.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
235 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014
12z KILX upper air sounding showed a very strong subsidence
inversion around 900mb, with a layer of surface-based moisture
trapped beneath it. Due to a lack of adequate mixing with the much
drier airmass aloft, low clouds have persisted/developed across the
area today. 18z/1pm visible satellite imagery showed these clouds
along/east of the I-55 corridor. Surface high pressure has shifted
into the Ohio River Valley, so S/SW winds on its back side are
finally beginning to push the clouds off to the east. Am expecting
the clouds to gradually dissipate/shift eastward over the next
couple of hours, with mostly clear skies across the board by late
afternoon/early evening.
Next upper short-wave to impact the weather across central Illinois
is evident on water vapor imagery over Manitoba. As this feature
drops southeastward, it will push a weak frontal boundary into the
region late tonight into early Monday morning. Forecast soundings
remain quite dry ahead of the front and 12z models have therefore
backed way off on precip development. Lead short-wave will bring
increasing high clouds to central Illinois this evening, then main
wave may bring lower/thicker clouds into the picture overnight.
Given dry soundings and best lift associated with Manitoba wave
skirting by to the N/NE, will only carry slight chance PoPs across
the southeast CWA after midnight. May see a few sprinkles further
north, but measurable precip is not expected.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014
After the short wave and weak frontal boundary, a mid level ridge
and surface high pressure will build into the region with dry
conditions. This will continue into Thur as the CWA remains in a
somewhat anti-cyclonic flow. Models then begin to bring another wave
toward the region Thursday. Models differ on what happens to this
wave as the ridge gets pinched off between the approaching wave and
the large low sitting over the northeastern US. The GFS takes the
energy north while the ECMWF takes it to the north and south. Either
way, central IL will remain dry through the rest of the week. Then
pushing into the weekend, ridging returns with dry weather.
Warmest temps will be tomorrow ahead of the short wave. Then behind
it, slightly cooler temps are expected. Temps will remain below
normal through the rest of the week, and then warm for the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014
MVFR ceilings persist at the central Illinois terminals early this
afternoon as low-level moisture remains trapped below a strong
subsidence inversion. Moisture has been very slowly shifting
eastward over the past couple of hours, and latest HRRR continues
this trend through the afternoon. Based on satellite timing tools,
will scatter the ceilings at KSPI by 19z, then further east to KCMI
by around 21z. Once low clouds clear out, quite a bit of high
cirrus clouds will stream across the area this afternoon/evening
in advance of a trough axis currently extending from Minnesota to
Nebraska. Latest satellite and regional obs indicate only mid/high
clouds associated with this boundary: however, as it drops
southeastward later tonight into Monday morning, most models are
showing a marked increase in 1000-850mb RH. Soundings remain
rather dry, so am expecting little more than a few sprinkles early
Monday morning. However, have included low VFR ceilings at all
sites except KPIA and KSPI as the boundary passes. After that,
winds will veer to the W/NW and skies will clear toward midday.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Auten
AVIATION...Barnes
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1241 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014
.DISCUSSION...
320 AM...FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR SPRINKLES TONIGHT AND THEN LAKE
EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
LOWER CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED ALL BUT FAR EASTERN CWA...AND WILL BE
CLEARING THERE BEFORE SUNRISE. WITH CALM WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA...TEMPS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 30S MOST AREAS AND THE FROST ADVISORY AND ITS TIMING
IS ON TRACK. SOME PATCHY/SHALLOW GROUND FOG HAS DEVELOPED AND NOT
EXPECTING THIS TO BECOME WIDESPREAD.
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM MANITOBA TODAY REACHING THE
NORTHERN LAKES TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SOME BETWEEN
THIS LOW AND THE DEPARTING HIGH WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AT
TIMES...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA. SHOULD BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE TO START BUT INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING. A TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM THIS LOW WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH LIMITED FORCING/MOISTURE. BETTER
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WILL LIKELY REMAIN BOTH NORTH AND
SOUTH OF THE CWA AND REMOVED MENTIONABLE POPS.
AS COLDER AIR SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY NIGHT...LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AND AFFECT MAINLY NORTHWEST INDIANA
BUT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES TUESDAY...
ITS POSSIBLE WINDS MAY TURN ENOUGH TO THE NORTHEAST FOR A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS TO REACH EASTERN COOK COUNTY TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE THE
PRECIP DISSIPATES AS THE HIGH BUILDS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS HIGH WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND QUIET WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS THURSDAY AND
POSSIBLY REACHING THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY BUT MODELS
WEAKEN THIS CONSIDERABLY SHOWING NO PRECIP REACHING THE CWA. CMS
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* BRIEF PERIOD OF BROKEN MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON
* GUSTY SW WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING
KMD
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
WE HAVE SEEN AN EXPANSION OF MVFR CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
THIS AFTERNOON. AS DAYTIME HEATING CONTINUES THESE CLOUDS ARE
BREAKING UP SOME AS THEY MIGRATE TO THE EAST AND THE BACK EDGE OF
THE BROKEN CLOUDS IS NOW REACHING A LINE FROM KRPJ TO KDKB...THOUGH
THERE WILL LIKELY BE AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON OF
MVFR CIGS FOR THE CHICAGOLAND TERMINALS.
CONCERNS SHIFT TO WIND SPEEDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS LOW
PRESSURE SPREADS TO NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AND A MODEST PRESSURE
GRADIENT SETS UP THROUGH NE ILLNOIS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. WIND
SPEEDS AT 2000 FT WILL PUSH 40 KT. NORMALLY WE WOULD SEE WINDS
EASE AT THE SURFACE AT NIGHT BUT THINKING THAT WE WILL CONTINUE TO
SEE WIND GUSTS THROUGH THE EVENING...LIKELY EVEN INCREASING OVER
THIS AFTERNOON. IF THEY DON`T SURFACE THEN THERE MAY BE A PERIOD
OF LOW LEVEL WIND SPEED SHEAR. GRADIENT SLACKENS SOME AFTER
MIDNIGHT THEN A COLD FRONT BRINGS A SHIFT TO NW WIND. NAM IS
SUGGESTING A BUNCH OF LOW CLOUDS IN THE MORNING BUT NOT BUYING OFF
ON THAT AT THE MOMENT. KMD
KMD
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN MVFR OCCURRENCE AND DURATION THIS AFTERNOON.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE WIND TRENDS...THOUGH LOW-MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON
WIND GUST POTENTIAL THIS EVENING.
KMD
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR.
IZZI
&&
.MARINE...
209 AM CDT
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION TONIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RAMP UP TODAY IN
ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM WITH A PERIOD OF NEAR GALE FORCE SOUTHWEST
WINDS EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON
TRANSLATING SOUTH TO SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN THIS EVENING. THE
DURATION OF GALE FORCE GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING LOOKS
TO BE SHORT IN MOST LOCATIONS WITH A DURATION PROBABLY ONLY A
COUPLE-FEW HOURS. GIVEN THE SHORT DURATION AND MARGINAL SET-UP HAVE
OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON GALE HEADLINES AND JUST INCLUDE A FEW GUSTS TO
GALES IN THE GLF/GRIDS. A PERIOD OF FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS IS
EXPECTED LATE MONDAY THOUGH TUESDAY AS LOW MOVES MORE SLOWLY
EASTWARD AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. BY MIDWEEK
WINDS/WAVES SHOULD SUBSIDE ON THE LAKE WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS
EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
IZZI
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-
LMZ745...7 PM SUNDAY TO 3 AM MONDAY.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1234 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 956 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014
Persistent area of clouds that failed to completely clear out of
central Illinois last night remains in place across parts of the
area this morning. 1430z visible satellite imagery shows cloud
cover along/east of a Peoria to Springfield line. These low clouds
are beginning to advance to the E/NE as S/SW winds develop on the
back-side of departing high pressure. As winds increase, the
forward speed of the clouds will as well, so am expecting them to
depart the CWA into Indiana by early afternoon. After that, mostly
sunny skies with only a few high/thin cirrus clouds can be
anticipated for the balance of the day. Due to the sunshine and
southwesterly winds, afternoon high temperatures will be quite a
bit warmer than previous days, with readings reaching the upper
50s and lower 60s. Made some adjustments to hourly sky grids to
better time the expected clearing and tweaked hourly temps.
Forecast update has already been issued.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014
Pesky low clouds continue to linger across the southern 2/3 or so of
the forecast area early this morning. This fact is holding surface
temperatures and dew points up considerably, and mitigating the
frost threat. However, temperatures have fallen to frosty level
across northern portion of the forecast area where skies have
cleared. HRRR and RAP models both suggest clouds should linger for
at least a few more hours across much of the southern CWA, something
that is hard to argue with looking at recent satellite trends. So,
plan to drop Frost Advisory from the southern half of the forecast
area.
Otherwise, quiet weather is on tap for the forecast area today, with
weak short wave ridging drifting overhead, and the associated
surface ridge pushing off to the east. Low level return flow on the
back side of the surface ridge will help push temperatures back into
the 60s today across much of the forecast area. However, the tricky
cloud cover forecast would likely impact how warm we ultimately get.
While most of the synoptic models suggest a mostly sunny day can be
expected, the high resolution HRRR & RAP, suggest at least the first
half of the day may trend closer to mostly cloudy. The high res
models have a better handle on what is occurring at the moment, so
I`m reluctant to disregard their solutions.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014
A fast moving wave currently across North Dakota is expected to drop
into the Great Lakes on Monday. The main low will stay well to our
northeast, with the trailing cold front sweeping through the
forecast area through early Monday afternoon. The threat of showers
with this feature is mainly across the southeast half of the
forecast area late evening through the overnight hours, with the GFS
and ECMWF both in decent agreement, while the NAM persists with a
dry forecast. Soundings do not show much moisture, so any showers
that occur will be fairly light. Have lingered some 30% PoP`s in the
far southeast CWA into early Monday morning, although have limited
this to areas south of I-70.
Otherwise, largely quiet week on tap for the area, as skinny ridge
builds toward the Mississippi Valley mid week with development of a
large cutoff low over the eastern states. As the eastern low slowly
drifts east late week, a deep shortwave across the Plains will
eventually split with a piece of energy forming a secondary cutoff
low over the lower Mississippi Valley. As this occurs, the threat of
rain east of the river will evaporate quickly Thursday evening with
the moisture being drawn toward this southern low.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014
MVFR ceilings persist at the central Illinois terminals early this
afternoon as low-level moisture remains trapped below a strong
subsidence inversion. Moisture has been very slowly shifting
eastward over the past couple of hours, and latest HRRR continues
this trend through the afternoon. Based on satellite timing tools,
will scatter the ceilings at KSPI by 19z, then further east to KCMI
by around 21z. Once low clouds clear out, quite a bit of high
cirrus clouds will stream across the area this afternoon/evening
in advance of a trough axis currently extending from Minnesota to
Nebraska. Latest satellite and regional obs indicate only mid/high
clouds associated with this boundary: however, as it drops
southeastward later tonight into Monday morning, most models are
showing a marked increase in 1000-850mb RH. Soundings remain
rather dry, so am expecting little more than a few sprinkles early
Monday morning. However, have included low VFR ceilings at all
sites except KPIA and KSPI as the boundary passes. After that,
winds will veer to the W/NW and skies will clear toward midday.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Barnes
SHORT TERM...Bak
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Barnes
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1117 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014
.DISCUSSION...
320 AM...FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR SPRINKLES TONIGHT AND THEN LAKE
EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
LOWER CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED ALL BUT FAR EASTERN CWA...AND WILL BE
CLEARING THERE BEFORE SUNRISE. WITH CALM WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA...TEMPS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 30S MOST AREAS AND THE FROST ADVISORY AND ITS TIMING
IS ON TRACK. SOME PATCHY/SHALLOW GROUND FOG HAS DEVELOPED AND NOT
EXPECTING THIS TO BECOME WIDESPREAD.
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM MANITOBA TODAY REACHING THE
NORTHERN LAKES TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SOME BETWEEN
THIS LOW AND THE DEPARTING HIGH WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AT
TIMES...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA. SHOULD BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE TO START BUT INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING. A TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM THIS LOW WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH LIMITED FORCING/MOISTURE. BETTER
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WILL LIKELY REMAIN BOTH NORTH AND
SOUTH OF THE CWA AND REMOVED MENTIONABLE POPS.
AS COLDER AIR SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY NIGHT...LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AND AFFECT MAINLY NORTHWEST INDIANA
BUT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES TUESDAY...
ITS POSSIBLE WINDS MAY TURN ENOUGH TO THE NORTHEAST FOR A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS TO REACH EASTERN COOK COUNTY TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE THE
PRECIP DISSIPATES AS THE HIGH BUILDS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS HIGH WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND QUIET WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS THURSDAY AND
POSSIBLY REACHING THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY BUT MODELS
WEAKEN THIS CONSIDERABLY SHOWING NO PRECIP REACHING THE CWA. CMS
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...
* GUSTY SW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.
* MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON
KMD
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 16Z...
MVFR CIGS EXPANDING TO THE SOUTH AND WEST...BUT THEY HAVE MADE IT
INTO KRPJ AND KDKB. NAM AND RAP MODELS SUGGEST AT LEAST A PERIOD
OF SCATTERED MVFR CLOUDS...POSSIBLY BROKEN THIS AFTERNOON. WILL
TAKE A CLOSE LOOK AT THIS FOR THE 18Z TAF CYCLE.
KMD
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 12Z FOLLOWS...
PATCHY GROUND FOG IN RURAL AREAS WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING AND GRADUALLY INCREASING.
WILL LIKELY BE SOME AT LEAST SPORIDIC GUSTINESS THIS
AFTERNOON...THOUGH INCREASING CLOUD COVER COULD LIMIT THE DURATION
AND INTENSITY OF THE GUSTS SOME. WINDS AROUND 2000FT AGL INCREASE
TO 35-40KT FOR A TIME THIS EVENING...THOUGH EXPECT ENOUGH MIXING
IN THE LOW LEVEL AND STRONG ENOUGH SFC WINDS TO PRECLUDE A BIG
LLWS PROBLEM. FRONT WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST MONDAY
MORNING BUT LITTLE THREAT OF ANY PRECIP EXISTS WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. OTHER THAN THIS MORNING`S RURAL GROUND FOG LOOK FOR VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE.
IZZI
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 12Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE WIND TRENDS
* LOW-MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN MVFR REMAINING SCATTERED AT ORD/MDW
IZZI
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR.
IZZI
&&
.MARINE...
209 AM CDT
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION TONIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RAMP UP TODAY IN
ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM WITH A PERIOD OF NEAR GALE FORCE SOUTHWEST
WINDS EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON
TRANSLATING SOUTH TO SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN THIS EVENING. THE
DURATION OF GALE FORCE GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING LOOKS
TO BE SHORT IN MOST LOCATIONS WITH A DURATION PROBABLY ONLY A
COUPLE-FEW HOURS. GIVEN THE SHORT DURATION AND MARGINAL SET-UP HAVE
OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON GALE HEADLINES AND JUST INCLUDE A FEW GUSTS TO
GALES IN THE GLF/GRIDS. A PERIOD OF FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS IS
EXPECTED LATE MONDAY THOUGH TUESDAY AS LOW MOVES MORE SLOWLY
EASTWARD AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. BY MIDWEEK
WINDS/WAVES SHOULD SUBSIDE ON THE LAKE WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS
EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
IZZI
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-
LMZ745...7 PM SUNDAY TO 3 AM MONDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
942 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014
.DISCUSSION...
320 AM...FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR SPRINKLES TONIGHT AND THEN LAKE
EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
LOWER CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED ALL BUT FAR EASTERN CWA...AND WILL BE
CLEARING THERE BEFORE SUNRISE. WITH CALM WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA...TEMPS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 30S MOST AREAS AND THE FROST ADVISORY AND ITS TIMING
IS ON TRACK. SOME PATCHY/SHALLOW GROUND FOG HAS DEVELOPED AND NOT
EXPECTING THIS TO BECOME WIDESPREAD.
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM MANITOBA TODAY REACHING THE
NORTHERN LAKES TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SOME BETWEEN
THIS LOW AND THE DEPARTING HIGH WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AT
TIMES...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA. SHOULD BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE TO START BUT INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING. A TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM THIS LOW WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH LIMITED FORCING/MOISTURE. BETTER
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WILL LIKELY REMAIN BOTH NORTH AND
SOUTH OF THE CWA AND REMOVED MENTIONABLE POPS.
AS COLDER AIR SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY NIGHT...LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AND AFFECT MAINLY NORTHWEST INDIANA
BUT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES TUESDAY...
ITS POSSIBLE WINDS MAY TURN ENOUGH TO THE NORTHEAST FOR A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS TO REACH EASTERN COOK COUNTY TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE THE
PRECIP DISSIPATES AS THE HIGH BUILDS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS HIGH WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND QUIET WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS THURSDAY AND
POSSIBLY REACHING THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY BUT MODELS
WEAKEN THIS CONSIDERABLY SHOWING NO PRECIP REACHING THE CWA. CMS
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 14Z...
* GUSTY SW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.
KMD
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
PATCHY GROUND FOG IN RURAL AREAS WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING AND GRADUALLY INCREASING.
WILL LIKELY BE SOME AT LEAST SPORIDIC GUSTINESS THIS
AFTERNOON...THOUGH INCREASING CLOUD COVER COULD LIMIT THE DURATION
AND INTENSITY OF THE GUSTS SOME. WINDS AROUND 2000FT AGL INCREASE
TO 35-40KT FOR A TIME THIS EVENING...THOUGH EXPECT ENOUGH MIXING
IN THE LOW LEVEL AND STRONG ENOUGH SFC WINDS TO PRECLUDE A BIG
LLWS PROBLEM. FRONT WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST MONDAY
MORNING BUT LITTLE THREAT OF ANY PRECIP EXISTS WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. OTHER THAN THIS MORNING`S RURAL GROUND FOG LOOK FOR VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE.
IZZI
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 12Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL FORECAST ELEMENTS
IZZI
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR.
IZZI
&&
.MARINE...
209 AM CDT
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION TONIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RAMP UP TODAY IN
ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM WITH A PERIOD OF NEAR GALE FORCE SOUTHWEST
WINDS EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON
TRANSLATING SOUTH TO SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN THIS EVENING. THE
DURATION OF GALE FORCE GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING LOOKS
TO BE SHORT IN MOST LOCATIONS WITH A DURATION PROBABLY ONLY A
COUPLE-FEW HOURS. GIVEN THE SHORT DURATION AND MARGINAL SET-UP HAVE
OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON GALE HEADLINES AND JUST INCLUDE A FEW GUSTS TO
GALES IN THE GLF/GRIDS. A PERIOD OF FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS IS
EXPECTED LATE MONDAY THOUGH TUESDAY AS LOW MOVES MORE SLOWLY
EASTWARD AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. BY MIDWEEK
WINDS/WAVES SHOULD SUBSIDE ON THE LAKE WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS
EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
IZZI
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...FROST ADVISORY...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-
ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022-
ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL 10 AM SUNDAY.
IN...FROST ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019 UNTIL 10 AM
SUNDAY.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-
LMZ745...7 PM SUNDAY TO 3 AM MONDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
655 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014
Pesky low clouds continue to linger across the southern 2/3 or so of
the forecast area early this morning. This fact is holding surface
temperatures and dew points up considerably, and mitigating the
frost threat. However, temperatures have fallen to frosty level
across northern portion of the forecast area where skies have
cleared. HRRR and RAP models both suggest clouds should linger for
at least a few more hours across much of the southern CWA, something
that is hard to argue with looking at recent satellite trends. So,
plan to drop Frost Advisory from the southern half of the forecast
area.
Otherwise, quiet weather is on tap for the forecast area today, with
weak short wave ridging drifting overhead, and the associated
surface ridge pushing off to the east. Low level return flow on the
back side of the surface ridge will help push temperatures back into
the 60s today across much of the forecast area. However, the tricky
cloud cover forecast would likely impact how warm we ultimately get.
While most of the synoptic models suggest a mostly sunny day can be
expected, the high resolution HRRR & RAP, suggest at least the first
half of the day may trend closer to mostly cloudy. The high res
models have a better handle on what is occurring at the moment, so
I`m reluctant to disregard their solutions.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014
A fast moving wave currently across North Dakota is expected to drop
into the Great Lakes on Monday. The main low will stay well to our
northeast, with the trailing cold front sweeping through the
forecast area through early Monday afternoon. The threat of showers
with this feature is mainly across the southeast half of the
forecast area late evening through the overnight hours, with the GFS
and ECMWF both in decent agreement, while the NAM persists with a
dry forecast. Soundings do not show much moisture, so any showers
that occur will be fairly light. Have lingered some 30% PoP`s in the
far southeast CWA into early Monday morning, although have limited
this to areas south of I-70.
Otherwise, largely quiet week on tap for the area, as skinny ridge
builds toward the Mississippi Valley mid week with development of a
large cutoff low over the eastern states. As the eastern low slowly
drifts east late week, a deep shortwave across the Plains will
eventually split with a piece of energy forming a secondary cutoff
low over the lower Mississippi Valley. As this occurs, the threat of
rain east of the river will evaporate quickly Thursday evening with
the moisture being drawn toward this southern low.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
ISSUED AT 654 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014
Aside from some patchy MVFR/IFR conditions early this morning,
predominantly VFR conditions are expected across the central
Illinois terminals through the 12Z TAF valid time. Light/variable
winds to start the day will increase in speed and shift to the
southwest as a ridge of high pressure pushes east of the area. A
disturbance will move across the area late tonight. While a light
shower can`t be ruled out, the chances are too low to include in
the TAFS at this time.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY until 8 AM CDT this morning FOR ILZ027>031-
036>038-040>048.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Bak
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Bak
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
320 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014
.DISCUSSION...
320 AM...FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR SPRINKLES TONIGHT AND THEN LAKE
EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
LOWER CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED ALL BUT FAR EASTERN CWA...AND WILL BE
CLEARING THERE BEFORE SUNRISE. WITH CALM WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA...TEMPS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 30S MOST AREAS AND THE FROST ADVISORY AND ITS TIMING
IS ON TRACK. SOME PATCHY/SHALLOW GROUND FOG HAS DEVELOPED AND NOT
EXPECTING THIS TO BECOME WIDESPREAD.
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM MANITOBA TODAY REACHING THE
NORTHERN LAKES TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SOME BETWEEN
THIS LOW AND THE DEPARTING HIGH WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AT
TIMES...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA. SHOULD BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE TO START BUT INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING. A TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM THIS LOW WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH LIMITED FORCING/MOISTURE. BETTER
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WILL LIKELY REMAIN BOTH NORTH AND
SOUTH OF THE CWA AND REMOVED MENTIONABLE POPS.
AS COLDER AIR SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY NIGHT...LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AND AFFECT MAINLY NORTHWEST INDIANA
BUT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES TUESDAY...
ITS POSSIBLE WINDS MAY TURN ENOUGH TO THE NORTHEAST FOR A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS TO REACH EASTERN COOK COUNTY TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE THE
PRECIP DISSIPATES AS THE HIGH BUILDS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS HIGH WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND QUIET WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS THURSDAY AND
POSSIBLY REACHING THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY BUT MODELS
WEAKEN THIS CONSIDERABLY SHOWING NO PRECIP REACHING THE CWA. CMS
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* NONE
IZZI
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
ALLOWING FOR INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS LATER THIS MORNING AND
ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON. BY MID AFTERNOON WINDS WILL PROBABLY
BEGIN GUSTING INTO THE 17-21KT RANGE WITH GUSTS POTENTIALLY
LINGERING INTO THE EVENING AS LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND
CLOUDINESS INCREASES SLOWING DECOUPLING. WINDS AROUND 2000FT AGL
ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 40KT FOR A TIME THIS
EVENING...BUT ANTICIPATE ENOUGH MIXING AND WINDS AT THE SFC TO
MITIGATE ANY SIGNIFICANT LLWS THREAT. OTHERWISE LOOK FOR GENERALLY
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE WITH THE ONLY EXCEPTION BEING
SOME PATCHY GROUND THIS MORNING AT DPA AND POTENTIALLY RFD WHICH
WILL DISSIPATE RAPIDLY AFTER SUNRISE.
IZZI
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL FORECAST ELEMENTS.
IZZI
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
MONDAY...CHANCE SHRA. SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOMING NORTH.
TUESDAY...DRY/VFR. NORTHEAST WINDS.
WEDNESDAY...DRY/VFR. EAST WINDS.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DRY/VFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS.
MDB
&&
.MARINE...
209 AM CDT
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION TONIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RAMP UP TODAY IN
ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM WITH A PERIOD OF NEAR GALE FORCE SOUTHWEST
WINDS EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON
TRANSLATING SOUTH TO SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN THIS EVENING. THE
DURATION OF GALE FORCE GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING LOOKS
TO BE SHORT IN MOST LOCATIONS WITH A DURATION PROBABLY ONLY A
COUPLE-FEW HOURS. GIVEN THE SHORT DURATION AND MARGINAL SET-UP HAVE
OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON GALE HEADLINES AND JUST INCLUDE A FEW GUSTS TO
GALES IN THE GLF/GRIDS. A PERIOD OF FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS IS
EXPECTED LATE MONDAY THOUGH TUESDAY AS LOW MOVES MORE SLOWLY
EASTWARD AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. BY MIDWEEK
WINDS/WAVES SHOULD SUBSIDE ON THE LAKE WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS
EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
IZZI
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...FROST ADVISORY...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-
ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022-
ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL 8 AM SUNDAY.
IN...FROST ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011 UNTIL 8 AM SUNDAY.
FROST ADVISORY...INZ019 UNTIL 8 AM SUNDAY.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-
LMZ745...7 PM SUNDAY TO 3 AM MONDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
306 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014
Pesky low clouds continue to linger across the southern 2/3 or so of
the forecast area early this morning. This fact is holding surface
temperatures and dew points up considerably, and mitigating the
frost threat. However, temperatures have fallen to frosty level
across northern portion of the forecast area where skies have
cleared. HRRR and RAP models both suggest clouds should linger for
at least a few more hours across much of the southern CWA, something
that is hard to argue with looking at recent satellite trends. So,
plan to drop Frost Advisory from the southern half of the forecast
area.
Otherwise, quiet weather is on tap for the forecast area today, with
weak short wave ridging drifting overhead, and the associated
surface ridge pushing off to the east. Low level return flow on the
back side of the surface ridge will help push temperatures back into
the 60s today across much of the forecast area. However, the tricky
cloud cover forecast would likely impact how warm we ultimately get.
While most of the synoptic models suggest a mostly sunny day can be
expected, the high resolution HRRR & RAP, suggest at least the first
half of the day may trend closer to mostly cloudy. The high res
models have a better handle on what is occurring at the moment, so
I`m reluctant to disregard their solutions.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014
A fast moving wave currently across North Dakota is expected to drop
into the Great Lakes on Monday. The main low will stay well to our
northeast, with the trailing cold front sweeping through the
forecast area through early Monday afternoon. The threat of showers
with this feature is mainly across the southeast half of the
forecast area late evening through the overnight hours, with the GFS
and ECMWF both in decent agreement, while the NAM persists with a
dry forecast. Soundings do not show much moisture, so any showers
that occur will be fairly light. Have lingered some 30% PoP`s in the
far southeast CWA into early Monday morning, although have limited
this to areas south of I-70.
Otherwise, largely quiet week on tap for the area, as skinny ridge
builds toward the Mississippi Valley mid week with development of a
large cutoff low over the eastern states. As the eastern low slowly
drifts east late week, a deep shortwave across the Plains will
eventually split with a piece of energy forming a secondary cutoff
low over the lower Mississippi Valley. As this occurs, the threat of
rain east of the river will evaporate quickly Thursday evening with
the moisture being drawn toward this southern low.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
ISSUED AT 1158 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014
Clouds have finally cleared over PIA and BMI but remain nearby. A
push of dry air across our N to NE counties should help to take
the clearing to CMI shortly after 07z and DEC by 08z. SPI appears
to have enough upstream clouds to keep them cloudy to around 08z.
Clouds should clear out from all terminal sites, with borderline
MVFR conditions CMI and DEC.
Fog may be the next concern, based spotty upstream reports of vis
reduction, including Lacons variable vis of 1V5sm. Have included a
tempo from 10-12z for MVFR 4SM BR at all TAF sites. As the high
begins to shift off to the east late tonight, a light SW return
flow will develop by sunrise. Clear skies and southwest winds at
10kt or less will prevail through the day on Sunday. Some mid
clouds will push in from the west Sunday evening.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY until 8 AM CDT this morning FOR ILZ027>031-
036>038-040>048.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Bak
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Shimon
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1214 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014
.DISCUSSION...
300 PM CDT
FORECAST CONCERNS LIE AROUND FROSTY CONDITIONS FOR TONIGHT...ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...AND POSSIBLY
SOME LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS INTO EARLY TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL
WARMUP.
THE SHARP UPPER TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS MORNINGS LIGHT RAIN IS
CONTINUING ITS NOSE-DIVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. THERE
IS STILL PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER OVER THE LAKE. WE ARE STARTING TO SEE
SOME CLOUD BREAKS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN AND A
CORRESPONDING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION/RAPID HEIGHT RISES CONTINUE TO
SQUASH THE DEEPER MOISTURE. THE UPPER RIDGE IN THE PLAINS WILL
DAMPEN AS IT SPREADS EAST TONIGHT...BUT WITH SPRAWLING SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TRANSITING THE REGION TONIGHT...EXPECT BETTER CLEARING GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TO ALLOW FOR CLEARING TO CONTINUE FOR
TEMPERATURES TO DROP RATHER QUICKLY. OUR NEXT SYSTEM IS ALREADY
SPREADING EAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
THIS AFTERNOON...AND WE WILL LIKELY SEE SOME OF THE HIGH CLOUDINESS
ASSOCIATED WITH IT SPREADING INTO OUR AREA LATER TONIGHT WHICH
SHOULDN`T DO TOO MUCH TO SLOW THE COOLING TONIGHT. DO NOT SEE ANY
GUIDANCE TO SUGGEST A WIDESPREAD FREEZE IN SPITE OF A FEW OUTLYING
LOCATIONS POSSIBLY TAGGING THE FREEZING MARK THIS EVENING AS
COLDER DEWPOINTS SPREAD SOUTH...SO WILL MAKE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
TEMPS TONIGHT OR THE FROST ADVISORY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
CLOUDS WILL HANG ON IN NW INDIANA THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT BEFORE
BEGINNING TO CLEAR WHICH WILL SLOW THE COOL DOWN AND LIMIT FROST
POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE LAKE. BUT WE ARE SEEING
PRETTY GOOD CLEARING OF THE LAKE CLOUDS FARTHER UPSTREAM...AND
GIVEN THE LOW STARTING POINT AND AT LEAST GAPS IN THE CLOUDS
EXPECTED THAT OUTLYING AREAS IN NW INDY ALSO WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE
TO SOME FROST...THOUGH WITH A BIT LOWER CONFIDENCE THEN IN
ILLINOIS. ADDITIONALLY...THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG IN RIVER
VALLEYS LATE TONIGHT AS WELL.
SUNDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL
BEGIN TO TAKE AIM AT THE REGION. IT WILL BE A COOL START TO THE DAY
AND EXPECT INCREASING CLOUD COVER AS THE DAY GOES ON WHICH WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S AT BEST. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...THE
SYSTEM WILL BE TAKING A SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TRACK TO TODAY`S THOUGH IT
IS NOT QUITE AS SHARP. BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT NEARS BRINGING A ANOTHER SHOT OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.
GUIDANCE IS MIXED AS TO THE DEGREE AT WHICH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
TURNS NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY...BUT THERE LOOKS TO BE SOME LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS LINGERING INTO EARLY TUESDAY...POSSIBLY BACK TO
THE ILLINOIS SIDE OF LAKE MICHIGAN.
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK IS STILL LOOKING FAIRLY NICE WITH MILD
AND DRY CONDITIONS THERE IS A PACIFIC SYSTEM THAT WILL ATTEMPT TO
PROGRESS THROUGH THE RIDGE BUT MODELS ARE SPLITTY WITH THIS ONE
GENERALLY JUST BRINGING SOME CLOUDS WITH IT AT THIS POINT.
KMD
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* NONE
IZZI
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
ALLOWING FOR INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS LATER THIS MORNING AND
ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON. BY MID AFTERNOON WINDS WILL PROBABLY
BEGIN GUSTING INTO THE 17-21KT RANGE WITH GUSTS POTENTIALLY
LINGERING INTO THE EVENING AS LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND
CLOUDINESS INCREASES SLOWING DECOUPLING. WINDS AROUND 2000FT AGL
ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 40KT FOR A TIME THIS
EVENING...BUT ANTICIPATE ENOUGH MIXING AND WINDS AT THE SFC TO
MITIGATE ANY SIGNIFICANT LLWS THREAT. OTHERWISE LOOK FOR GENERALLY
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE WITH THE ONLY EXCEPTION BEING
SOME PATCHY GROUND THIS MORNING AT DPA AND POTENTIALLY RFD WHICH
WILL DISSIPATE RAPIDLY AFTER SUNRISE.
IZZI
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL FORECAST ELEMENTS.
IZZI
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
MONDAY...CHANCE SHRA. SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOMING NORTH.
TUESDAY...DRY/VFR. NORTHEAST WINDS.
WEDNESDAY...DRY/VFR. EAST WINDS.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DRY/VFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS.
MDB
&&
.MARINE...
111 PM CDT
IN THE NEAR TERM...HAVE ALLOWED GALE WARNING FOR THE LAKE MICHIGAN
OPEN WATERS TO EXPIRE AT 1 PM CDT...AS ISALLOBARIC (PRESSURE CHANGE)
GRADIENT HAS WEAKENED AND OBSERVED GUSTS HAVE EASED INTO THE 25-30
KT RANGE OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON
AND THEN MORE QUICKLY THIS EVENING/TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE FROM
WESTERN ONTARIO TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS MOVES STEADILY EAST-SOUTHEAST
TO THE WESTERN LAKES AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS
WILL RESULT IN 30 KT NORTH WINDS DIMINISHING QUICKLY THIS EVENING...
AND BACKING TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST BY MORNING AS THE SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS PASSES. CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HEADLINES FOR THE IL
NEARSHORE WATERS WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 4 AM CDT...WITH THE
IN WATERS CONTINUING THROUGH 10 AM CDT SUNDAY MORNING AS WAVES
SLOWLY SUBSIDE AFTER THIS PERIOD OF STRONG NORTHERLY FETCH.
LIGHT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE SHORT
LIVED HOWEVER...AS THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE CURRENT WEATHER
PATTERN CONTINUES WITH ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPING OVER CANADA AND MOVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PICK UP INTO THE 20-25 KT RANGE PERHAPS WITH A
FEW GUSTS TO 30 KT AGAIN SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF THIS LOW AND TRAILING
COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
WINDS SHIFT NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH A PERIOD OF 25 KTS LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS ANOTHER HIGH SPREADS ACROSS ONTARIO AND
EVENTUALLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
RATZER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...FROST ADVISORY...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-
ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022-
ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL 8 AM SUNDAY.
IN...FROST ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011...4 AM SUNDAY TO 8
AM SUNDAY.
FROST ADVISORY...INZ019 UNTIL 8 AM SUNDAY.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 4 AM SUNDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 10 AM SUNDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1159 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 910 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014
Clouds have been slow to clear out, but still show a steady
progress. Main concern is that any clouds that linger for a
significant amount of time after midnight could prevent those
areas from seeing any frost conditions. Our frost advisory
includes all of our counties. The latest HRRR high res model is
catching on to the slower clearing of clouds, and shows areas east
of I-57 and south of Champaign and Vermilion counties seeing
clouds persist as late as 11z/6am. For now will not cancel the
frost advisory for those areas, but will bring low temps up a
degree or two to account for less time under clear skies.
Main updates this evening were to the sky grids, and low temps in
the east. The remainder of the forecast looked on track. A
seasonable day is on tap for Sunday, under mostly sunny skies with
highs around 60, and southwest winds around 10 mph.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014
Short-wave trough currently over central Illinois will drop
southward into the Ohio River Valley by early this evening, allowing
skies to clear from northwest to southeast across the area. 1730z
visible satellite imagery is already showing clearing in the wake of
the wave across central/northern Wisconsin into northern Iowa.
Based on satellite timing tools and the latest run of the HRRR,
think skies will clear across the far NW KILX CWA around Galesburg
and Peoria late this afternoon, then across the remainder of the
area by early to mid-evening. With clear skies and light winds
expected, a cold and frosty night will be on tap. Low temperatures
will bottom out in the middle 30s across the board, allowing the
formation of frost. As a result, Frost Advisory is now in effect
for the entire CWA.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014
Only main concern this forecast package, beyond tonight, is the
chance of pcpn Sunday night through Monday. All models are
consistent with bringing a cold front down through the area
beginning late Sunday night and continuing through Monday morning.
This front will not have much moisture to work with, given the large
area of high pressure that will block any moisture from the gulf
from getting into the midwest. However, will still have a low
chance, around 30pct, pops in the forecast, beginning late Sun night
and continuing through Monday morning. Models seem a little faster
than yesterday, so believe pcpn could be out of the area by Monday
afternoon. However, will keep a slight chance pops in the grids in
the southeast...though it will not be seen in the wording.
Remainder of the forecast through the week and into the weekend will
be dry and pleasant. High pressure will build into the region on the
surface with 500mb ridging building in from the west. This will
effectively keep the storm track to the north through the remainder
of the forecast period, and possibly longer.
Temps will warm some tomorrow and Monday, but then cool back down to
below normal through remainder of the forecast. Temps will gradually
warm next week, reaching back to around normal by next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
ISSUED AT 1158 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014
Clouds have finally cleared over PIA and BMI but remain nearby. A
push of dry air across our N to NE counties should help to take
the clearing to CMI shortly after 07z and DEC by 08z. SPI appears
to have enough upstream clouds to keep them cloudy to around 08z.
Clouds should clear out from all terminal sites, with borderline
MVFR conditions CMI and DEC.
Fog may be the next concern, based spotty upstream reports of vis
reduction, including Lacons variable vis of 1V5sm. Have included a
tempo from 10-12z for MVFR 4SM BR at all TAF sites. As the high
begins to shift off to the east late tonight, a light SW return
flow will develop by sunrise. Clear skies and southwest winds at
10kt or less will prevail through the day on Sunday. Some mid
clouds will push in from the west Sunday evening.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Sunday FOR ILZ027>031-
036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Shimon
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Auten
AVIATION...Shimon
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1145 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING LARGE 1025+ MB RIDGE UPSTREAM
ACRS THE EASTERN PLAINS UP INTO THE NORTHWESTERN GRT LKS. ALOFT
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WAS INDICATING VIGOROUS VORT MAX ROLLING
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF EAST CENTRAL IL TOWARD SOUTHEAST INDIANA. TOP-
DOWN DRYING AND ENHANCED SUBSIDENCE ERODING STRATOCU DECK IN PLACE
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...BUT PROCESS OCCURRING SLOWER THAN
EARLIER ANTICIPATED. BUT EXTRAPOLATING CURRENT CLEARING TRENDS ON
VIS SATELLITE LOOP SUGGEST THE LATEST RAP HANDLING OF CLEARING
LINE REACHING JUST EAST OF THE MS RVR BY 23Z ON TRACK OR EVEN A
TOUCH SLOW. EXPECT LATE AFTERNOON HIGHS WHERE CLEARING AND SOME
INSOLATION CAN OCCUR.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014
TONIGHT...INCOMING RIDGE ON TRACK ALONG WITH CLEARING AND SFC WIND
DECOUPLE FOR A CLEAR AND CHILLY NIGHT. WILL KEEP ONGOING FROST
ADVISORY IN PLACE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I80 ON THE IL SIDE OF THE MS
RVR...BUT RACE WILL BE ON WITH PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE HIGH
PRESSURE ALLOWING LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ON IT/S WESTERN FLANK
BEFORE SUNRISE SUNDAY. BUT SOUTHEASTERLY PUSH OF MAIN RIDGE CENTER
WILL ALLOW THE LIGHT/CALM SFC WIND REGIME TO HANG ON LONGEST IN
ONGOING ADVISORY/CLOSEST TO CENTER...SO WILL LET RIDE. COLDEST TEMPS
OF LOWER 30S IN LOWER SFC DPT FIELDS OF THE NORTHEASTERN CWA....BUT
BULK OF THE CWA SHOULD RANGE IN THE MID 30S EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHWEST
FCST AREA WHERE HOPEFULLY THE RETURN FLOW MENTIONED ABOVE WILL
PREVENT TEMPS FROM DIPPING OUT OF THE UPPER 30S.
SUNDAY...INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LLVL RETURN FLOW ALONG WITH
WARM AIR ADVECTION TO BOOST TEMPS IN MOST OF THE CWA INTO THE LOW
TO MID 60S...ALTHOUGH THE NORTHEASTER THIRD COULD BE HELD DOWN IN
THE UPPER 50S. SOME PASSING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON WILL
TEMPER THE WARM UP POTENTIAL SOME...OTHERWISE SOME AREAS COULD
GET INTO THE UPPER 60S OR NEAR 70 DEGREES.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014
LONG TERM ENSEMBLE MODELS SHOW QUIET WEATHER WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE THEME DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60 WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA LATE ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WITH THE BEST
DYNAMICS AND FORCING TO OUR NORTH.. AND LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH.. THIS FRONT WILL MAINLY RESULT IN A WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST. STARTING MONDAY.. A LARGE LONG WAVE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD
OVER THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY AND REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH MID
WEEK. ON THURSDAY.. THE ENSEMBLE MODELS PROG AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TO CUT THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE AND MOVE SOUTHWEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY DRY WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT A
FEW SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE. BY NEXT WEEKEND..A MORE FLATTENED
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER MUCH OF THE NATION. THIS
RIDGE ALONG WITH CONTINUED MODERATION OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PRODUCE WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO PERHAPS
70 DEGREES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014
SURFACE RIDGE NOW ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...WITH LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALREADY BEGINNING AT KCID. AFTER
SUNRISE...SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR BUREAU-HANCOCK-
HENDERSON-HENRY IL-MCDONOUGH-MERCER-PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-
WARREN.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...KUHL
AVIATION...DMD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
640 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014
...UPDATED FOR AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014
A RATHER ANOMALOUSLY HIGH UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WAS CENTERED
DIRECTLY OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS TODAY, WITH AFTERNOON RAP ANALYSIS
SHOWING A 583 DAM 500MB CENTER NEAR DODGE CITY. THIS RESULTED IN
LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. CLEAR SKIES
PREVAILED AFTER THE MORNING FOG AMIDST THE SUBSIDENCE. A WEAK
SURFACE FRONT PUSHED SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY, WHICH WAS STALLING
OUT AND DISSOLVING FROM THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA. THERE WAS A CORRIDOR OF 53-59F SURFACE DEWPOINTS EXTENDING
FROM THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. AS WINDS BECOME
EAST AND EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY TONIGHT, THIS MOISTURE WILL PULL WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD INTO FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND THE COLORADO BORDER. WE
EXPECT FOG AND PERHAPS DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP AGAIN LATE TONIGHT,
PRIMARILY 09Z AND LATER TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
FALL TO LOWS IN THE MID 40S AS A RULE ALONG/NORTH OF THE ARKANSAS
RIVER. CLOSER TO THE OKLAHOMA BORDER, LOWS SHOULD NOT FALL BELOW
LOWER 50S GIVEN THE HIGHER SURFACE MOISTURE CONTENT.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH ON TUESDAY IN
RESPONSE TO DEEPENING PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AS ANOTHER
PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. ALONG WITH THE
SOUTH WINDS, A BAND OF STRATUS WILL DEVELOP UP TO AROUND 2000 FEET
AGL, WHICH WILL EXPAND NORTHWARD DURING THE EARLY TO MID MORNING
HOURS. EVENTUALLY, THE STRATUS WILL SCATTER OUT AS IT SHIFTS TO THE
NORTH, BUT AREAS UP ALONG I-70 MAY SEE LOW CLOUDS THROUGH 19 OR 20Z,
WHICH WOULD CERTAINLY MITIGATE THE WARM-UP. HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE
LOWERED JUST A LITTLE BIT BECAUSE OF THIS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014
MAIN SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POP GRADIENT FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BROUGHT
THE GRADIENT FURTHER EAST WITH LESSER AMOUNTS ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS.
MESOSCALE MODELS ARE STARTING TO AGREE WITH GLOBAL MODELS THAT THERE
WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT, WHICH IS NOT FAVORABLE
FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS. THE BEST FRONTOGENESIS
WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS INTO NEBRASKA. HAVE THE HIGHEST
POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES. AGAIN, TO THE SOUTHWEST, THINK CHANCE
OF MORE SIGNIFICANT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS DWINDLING. SEVERE WEATHER
IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO MARGINAL MUCAPE AND PARTICULARLY BULK SHEAR.
BEYOND WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY HO-HUM AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL FAVOR
TEMPERATURES 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. WE MAY SEE A MODERATE STRENGTH
FRONT IN ABOUT A WEEK FROM NOW WITH ASSOCIATED COOLER TEMPERATURES.
OTHERWISE WARMTH AND A PRECIPITATION-FREE FORECAST WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE LONG TERM DOMAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 631 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014
A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING LIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS TO WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT. SOME
STRATUS AND FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER KGCK AND KDDC BY AROUND
12Z AND LAST TILL AROUND 15-16Z. MODELS SUGGEST THE WORST
CONDITIONS IN FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS WITH KGCK WITH IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AND KDDC WITH IFR/MVFR. AT KHYS VFR
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MVFR CIGS AFTER 15Z.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 48 75 56 76 / 0 0 10 50
GCK 45 75 56 76 / 0 0 10 40
EHA 51 75 54 73 / 0 0 10 20
LBL 50 75 55 76 / 0 0 10 30
HYS 44 71 57 76 / 0 0 10 60
P28 52 77 57 77 / 0 0 10 60
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...SUGDEN
AVIATION...KRUSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
311 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 203 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014
DRIZZLE IS PERSISTENT OVER ALL BUT THE SW AND FAR NW PARTS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE ADDED IT TO THE FORECAST...AND USED A 20
PERCENT POP WHERE IT WILL BE MOST PREVALENT. AS AN INVERSION LOWERS
DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS...THE MOIST LAYER WILL BECOME MORE SHALLOW
AND DRIZZLE SHOULD FINALLY TAPER OFF. IN LIGHT OF OBSERVED TEMPS AND
CLOUDS HOLDING ON...HAVE RAISED MIN TEMPS SLIGHTLY FOR THIS MORNING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1024 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014
MADE ONE LAST UPDATE TO THE FORECAST BEFORE THE END OF THE SHIFT.
BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...AND THE LATEST HRRR MODEL
DATA...ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS AND PATCHES OF DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH BETWEEN 4 AND 5Z TONIGHT. THE NEW
UPDATE WILL NO LONGER HAVE EVENING WORDING AND WILL FEATURE ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 732 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014
A MINOR UPDATE TO THE FORECAST WAS REQUIRED THIS EVENING. AN AREA OF
RAIN SHOWERS THAT INITIALLY FORMED OVER CENTRAL INDIANA HAS BECOME
QUITE ROBUST AND IS NOW MAKING ITS WAY INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. THESE
RAIN SHOWERS HAVE BECOME WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A SHORT TERM
INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE NEXT 3 OR 4 HOURS. THE
FORECAST UPDATE THAT IS ABOUT TO BE ISSUED WILL REFLECT THIS WITH 30
TO 50 POPS THROUGH 3Z. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST. THE RAIN SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY AROUND 9Z
TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG AND FROST WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT...WITH THE FROST AFFECTING OUR DEEPEST AND MOST SHELTERED
VALLEYS WHERE THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE EXPERIENCED TONIGHT.
THE FOG COULD FORM JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE DUE TO MOISTURE FROM RAIN THE
PAST FEW DAYS. THE MITIGATING FACTOR WITH THE FOG WILL BE THE COOL
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL LEAD INSTANCES OF FROST WHERE IT
GETS COLD ENOUGH. A ZONE UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED LATER IN THE SHIFT TO
GET RID OF STALE WORDING IN THE ZONES AND FOR ANY OTHER CHANGES THAT
MIGHT BE NECESSARY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 311 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY BRINGING WITH IT
LOTS OF CLOUDS AND SOME SPRINKLES. THERE IS A FAIRLY STRONG SHORT
WAVE OVER CENTRAL INDIANA THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS
EVENING THIS WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION THAN
WHAT WE ARE SEEING THIS AFTERNOON. DEPENDING OF HOW FAST THE SHORT
WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND HOW QUICKLY THE WIND DROPS OFF
TONIGHT...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY VALLEY FROST IN
THE WESTERN PORTION OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. TOMORROW NIGHT...THE CHANCES
FOR VALLEY FROST ARE A LITTLE HIGHER AS THE WINDS AND TEMPERATURES
LINE UP BETTER.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014
A PERSISTENT TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL BE THE HIGHLIGHT OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL AND
PROVIDING THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER FROM
MONDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
INTO MID WEEK...SO CONFIDENCE REMAINS FAIRLY HIGH THROUGH THE
EXTENDED.
THE PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH AN ADVANCING SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT. UNLIKE THE PAST FEW
SYSTEMS...THIS TROUGH LOOKS TO BE MORE MOISTURE STARVED...ESPECIALLY
IN THE LOWER LEVELS. THUS...NOT AS CONVINCED WE WILL SEE MUCH OUT OF
THIS FEATURE. HOWEVER...ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS THERE TO AT
LEAST SUPPORT A ISOLATED SHOWER OR SPRINKLE GOING INTO 0Z TUESDAY. A
STRONGER VORT MAX WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY...TAKING AIM ON EASTERN KENTUCKY. GIVEN THE
MODELS TENDENCY THE LAST FEW SYSTEMS TO DOWNPLAY THE STRENGTH OF
THESE FEATURES...OPTED TO GO A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE ON THE POPS AS
THE DEGREE OF FORCING ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR DECENT
COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY HEADING INTO TUESDAY. BEST CHANCES WILL RESIDE
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREAS...WITH SOUTHWEST ZONES POSSIBLY
STAYING DRY. THE INITIAL VORT MAX WILL CREATE AN UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF
LOW OVER THE EAST COAST...KEEPING THE AREA ON THE EDGE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WITH THE POTENTIAL OF ADDITIONAL
VORT MAXES DROPPING SOUTH ALONG THE BACK EDGE OF THIS TROUGH...THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR WEST ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL REACH.
THUS...RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW. WHILE MODELS START TO DIVERGE A
BIT ON HOW QUICKLY THE TROUGH WILL DEPART BY THURSDAY...THE GENERAL
CONSENSUS IS THAT CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT WITH A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A GORGEOUS STRETCH OF FALL WEATHER AS WE HEAD INTO
NEXT WEEKEND AS RIDGING BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 203 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014
CONDITIONS WERE MOSTLY MVFR AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...WITH A
SMATTERING OF IFR AND VFR. AREAS OF DRIZZLE WERE PREVALENT NE OF THE
CUMBERLAND RIVER BASIN. THE DRIZZLE WILL TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT...BUT
LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST IN MOST LOCATIONS INTO THE DAY SUNDAY.
CEILINGS SHOULD BREAK UP ON SUNDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...
LEAVING VFR TO FINISH THE PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...JMW/KAS
AVIATION...HAL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
203 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 203 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014
DRIZZLE IS PERSISTENT OVER ALL BUT THE SW AND FAR NW PARTS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE ADDED IT TO THE FORECAST...AND USED A 20
PERCENT POP WHERE IT WILL BE MOST PREVALENT. AS AN INVERSION LOWERS
DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS...THE MOIST LAYER WILL BECOME MORE SHALLOW
AND DRIZZLE SHOULD FINALLY TAPER OFF. IN LIGHT OF OBSERVED TEMPS AND
CLOUDS HOLDING ON...HAVE RAISED MIN TEMPS SLIGHTLY FOR THIS MORNING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1024 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014
MADE ONE LAST UPDATE TO THE FORECAST BEFORE THE END OF THE SHIFT.
BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...AND THE LATEST HRRR MODEL
DATA...ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS AND PATCHES OF DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH BETWEEN 4 AND 5Z TONIGHT. THE NEW
UPDATE WILL NO LONGER HAVE EVENING WORDING AND WILL FEATURE ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 732 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014
A MINOR UPDATE TO THE FORECAST WAS REQUIRED THIS EVENING. AN AREA OF
RAIN SHOWERS THAT INITIALLY FORMED OVER CENTRAL INDIANA HAS BECOME
QUITE ROBUST AND IS NOW MAKING ITS WAY INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. THESE
RAIN SHOWERS HAVE BECOME WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A SHORT TERM
INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE NEXT 3 OR 4 HOURS. THE
FORECAST UPDATE THAT IS ABOUT TO BE ISSUED WILL REFLECT THIS WITH 30
TO 50 POPS THROUGH 3Z. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST. THE RAIN SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY AROUND 9Z
TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG AND FROST WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT...WITH THE FROST AFFECTING OUR DEEPEST AND MOST SHELTERED
VALLEYS WHERE THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE EXPERIENCED TONIGHT.
THE FOG COULD FORM JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE DUE TO MOISTURE FROM RAIN THE
PAST FEW DAYS. THE MITIGATING FACTOR WITH THE FOG WILL BE THE COOL
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL LEAD INSTANCES OF FROST WHERE IT
GETS COLD ENOUGH. A ZONE UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED LATER IN THE SHIFT TO
GET RID OF STALE WORDING IN THE ZONES AND FOR ANY OTHER CHANGES THAT
MIGHT BE NECESSARY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 311 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY BRINGING WITH IT
LOTS OF CLOUDS AND SOME SPRINKLES. THERE IS A FAIRLY STRONG SHORT
WAVE OVER CENTRAL INDIANA THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS
EVENING THIS WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION THAN
WHAT WE ARE SEEING THIS AFTERNOON. DEPENDING OF HOW FAST THE SHORT
WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND HOW QUICKLY THE WIND DROPS OFF
TONIGHT...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY VALLEY FROST IN
THE WESTERN PORTION OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. TOMORROW NIGHT...THE CHANCES
FOR VALLEY FROST ARE A LITTLE HIGHER AS THE WINDS AND TEMPERATURES
LINE UP BETTER.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014
A PERSISTENT TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL BE THE HIGHLIGHT OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL AND
PROVIDING THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER FROM LATE
MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT INTO MID
WEEK...SO CONFIDENCE REMAINS FAIRLY GOOD THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
THE PERIOD WILL START AS MID LEVEL RIDGING IS DEPARTING TO THE EAST
REPLACED BY AN ADVANCING SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON
MONDAY. UNLIKE THE PAST FEW SYSTEMS...THIS TROUGH LOOKS TO BE MORE
MOISTURE STARVED...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER LEVELS. THUS...NOT AS
CONVINCED WE WILL SEE MUCH OUT OF THIS FEATURE. HOWEVER...ENOUGH MID
LEVEL MOISTURE IS THERE TO AT LEAST SUPPORT A ISOLATED SHOWER OR
SPRINKLE LATE MONDAY. A STRONGER VORT MAX WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY...TAKING AIM ON
EASTERN KENTUCKY. GIVEN THE MODELS TENDENCY THE LAST FEW SYSTEMS TO
DOWNPLAY THE STRENGTH OF THESE FEATURES...OPTED TO GO A BIT MORE
AGGRESSIVE ON THE POPS AS THE DEGREE OF FORCING ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW
FOR DECENT COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY HEADING INTO TUESDAY. BEST CHANCES
WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREAS...WITH SOUTHWEST
ZONES POSSIBLY STAYING DRY. THE INITIAL VORT MAX WILL CREATE AN UPPER
LEVEL CUT OFF LOW OVER THE EAST COAST...KEEPING THE AREA ON THE EDGE
OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WITH THE POTENTIAL OF
ADDITIONAL VORT MAXES DROPPING SOUTH ALONG THE EDGE OF THIS
TROUGH...THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR WEST ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL REACH. THUS...RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW. WHILE MODELS START
TO DIVERGE A BIT ON HOW QUICKLY THE TROUGH WILL DEPART BY
THURSDAY...THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT
WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. IT
DOES LOOK LIKE THE POTENTIAL FOR A GORGEOUS STRETCH OF FALL WEATHER
AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS RIDGING BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE
REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 203 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014
CONDITIONS WERE MOSTLY MVFR AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...WITH A
SMATTERING OF IFR AND VFR. AREAS OF DRIZZLE WERE PREVALENT NE OF THE
CUMBERLAND RIVER BASIN. THE DRIZZLE WILL TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT...BUT
LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST IN MOST LOCATIONS INTO THE DAY SUNDAY.
CEILINGS SHOULD BREAK UP ON SUNDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...
LEAVING VFR TO FINISH THE PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...HAL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
1157 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2014
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1157 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014
The low clouds are finally beginning to erode from the northeast
and southwest, so would expect at worst a scattered layer left in
another hour or two. Made some further adjustments to the grids to
get rid of the clouds sooner and lower temperatures a bit where
the clouds have been lingering.
The AVIATION section has been updated for the 06Z TAF issuance.
UPDATE Issued at 944 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014
Clouds have proven to be much more stubborn than expected. Noticed
that the 850mb and 925mb winds from the KVWX VAD wind profile are
now out of the north northeast, which could push the clouds back
to the south and west a bit late this evening. Beginning to wonder
if the clearing isn`t going to more from north to south rather
than the west to east that is currently advertised. The RAP seems
to have a decent clue with the cloud and temperature trends, so used it
as a guide for this update, which has the clouds eventually
clearing the east very late tonight.
Most places still likely to drop to near 40 by morning. Patchy
frost will be possible over a lot of the area, but the most likely
areas will be in a zone from Cape Girardeau to Carbondale, where
temperatures will be in the upper 30s the longest. Still don`t
feel like this will be a significant or widespread frost even in
that area.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 258 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014
Wvapor loop showed a fairly energetic mid level low over wcntrl IN
moving SE. Area of showers with this fast moving feature over IN
should stay east of our SW IN counties this afternoon. Meanwhile an
expansive area of cu/strato-cu continues to move SSE across our
CWFA. Clouds up across IA quickly dissipated. That gives us a
better indication of how to track the west edge, and what to do
with the progression of the clouds the rest of the day. The cloud
bank moving south across central sections of IL appears more than
diurnally driven. So it may take some time through the late
afternoon and evening to completely rid the clouds, especially east
of the Mississippi.
Otherwise, overnight, once it clears, and with calm winds, cannot
rule out patchy late night frost portions of southern IL, into
southwest IN. This is based on the possibility of reaching coolest
MET guidance numbers, which is what we went with. Even with that,
given soil temps, and marginal conditions, if it does form, it`d be
spotty, and most likely on elevated surfaces that can radiate
"heat" most efficiently. Could be more in the way of dew. No
products will be issued, but a patchy mention will be in the
grid/public forecast in the aforementioned areas. Could be patchy
ground type fog too some areas.
High pressure will move east of the area Sunday. Dry air mass means
little in the way of cloud cover. Sunday night should be dry for
the most part too. However between about 08z-12z Monday, the models
bring a band of moisture into our northern counties (SRN IL, SW
IN), ahead of a mid level trof and embedded PVA, that could result
in isolated light showers. Will carry that slight chance across
the rest of the CWFA through the morning, then end chances Monday
afternoon, though a few sprinkles may linger SE sections (WRN KY)
before the left over dwindling moisture departs. In most cases,
would probably trend dry (been flip flopping a bit on these slight
chances), but given the degree of forcing the models have shown in
the omega and QG fields, slights are warranted. Most areas will
not see much if anything. Dry weather Monday night with high
pressure returning.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 258 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014
Beyond Monday night`s cold frontal passage, an extremely uneventful
weather pattern is shaping up through the remainder of the week. To
start the period, an upper level ridge will be centered over the
Plains with a trough over the eastern U.S. Some lingering low
level moisture may result in scattered to broken stratocumulus on
Tuesday, especially in the northeastern 1/3 of our forecast area.
Beyond that, the upper level ridge is forecast to build east into
the Mississippi Valley through Thursday as the core of surface high
pressure gradually shifts south from the Great Lakes. Late in the
week, an approaching shortwave trough will be deflected to the south
as it runs into the ridge overhead. The resultant cut-off low that
parks itself over the Gulf Coast States next weekend will act to
keep any precipitation potential south of the immediate area.
Temperatures through the period will be near seasonable. Highs will
range through the 60s each day, but may close in on the 70 degree
mark by the weekend. Lows through the period will be in the 40s.
Guidance would suggest little concern for frost formation during
this time. However, Wednesday night may be an exception as we
currently have lows forecast near 40. If this proves to be a few
degrees too warm, then we may need to consider the addition of at
least patchy frost in later forecasts.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 1157 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014
Clouds finally showing signs of clearing at KEVV and KOWB, so will
not forecast any ceiling condition to begin the period.
Could see some IFR or lower fog at KCGI, but with the sensor
issues at KCGI we will have no way to monitor. Therefore went with
a "AMD NOT SKED" in the 06Z TAF.
IFR fog possible at KPAH, especially if the temperature drops
into the upper 30s. With the clouds yet to scatter at KEVV and
KOWB, cannot see anything more than a brief period of MVFR fog
right at sunrise there.
As for Sunday, may see a few cu, but high clouds will be
increasing from the west through the day. A light south wind may
eventually mix down by midday and continue into the evening.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DRS
AVIATION...DRS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
1030 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...LOCATING
OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST FOR MUCH OF THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED WELL OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING
ALLOWING FOR A RELAXING PRES GRAD ALONG THE COAST AND INLAND WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS 10 KT OR LESS. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST TONIGHT...WITH A SFC COLD FRONT
REACHING THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS AROUND 12Z TUE.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH HAS BEEN
PROVIDING WEAK LIFT SUPPORTING A THIN BAND OF ISOLD SHOWERS ON
RADAR OVER THE WESTERN CWA...HOWEVER DUE TO THE DRY AIR IN PLACE
IN THE LOWER LEVELS MOST OF THE RADAR ARE RESULTING IN VIRGA. BUFR
SOUNDINGS SHOW OVERALL DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE TONIGHT (PW`S AOB
0.75")...SO IT WILL BE HARD TO GET MUCH OF PCPN TO REACH THE
GROUND. THE HRRR TIES TO DEVELOP A THIN BAND OF SHOWERS EAST OF
I-95 AROUND 06Z...BUT THIS APPEARS TO BE OVERDONE. THAT SAID
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW BRIEF SPRINKLES OVERNIGHT. OVERALL DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU TONIGHT WITH SOME INCREASING CLOUD
COVER. THE CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT SW FLOW COULD KEEP SOME AREAS
FROM REACHING FORECAST LOWS KEEPING CONDITIONS MILDER. LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER WEST TO MID 50S AT THE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FLOW AMPLIFIES DURING THE SHORT TERM AS A BLOCKING PATTERN DEVELOPS
OVER ERN CANADA. ADDITIONAL ENERGY DIVES SOUTH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES/OH VALLEY TUES THANKS TO A ~100 KT JET STREAK DIVING SWD
FROM CANADA. AS A RESULT...UPPER LOW PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE NE STATES LATE TUESDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL
PROGRESS SLOWLY EWD TUES NIGHT INTO WED...LOCATING OFF THE
DELMARVA COAST LATE WED. WITH THE UPR LOW PIVOTING ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA TUE/TUE NIGHT...WILL SEE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
DEVELOP ESPECIALLY NORTH/NE WHERE BEST UPWARD MOTION IS
ANTICIPATED. HAVE CHANCE (POPS 25-40%) ALONG AND NE OF A LINE FROM
LKU-OFP-MFV ON TUE...THEN BEST CHANCE (30-50%) MAINLY ALONG THE
VA COAST AND ONTO THE EASTERN SHORE TUE NIGHT. ELSEWHERE...WILL
CARRY NO HIGHER THEN 20% POPS. HIGHS TUE IN THE UPPER 60S NW TO
MID 70S SE. LOWS TUE NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. MOSTLY
CLOUDY NORTH TO PARTLY CLOUDY SOUTH DURING THIE TIME.
DEEP UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST AND OFFSHORE WED.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FAIRLY DRY ALOFT OVER INLAND SECTIONS AS THE
TROUGH/SFC REFLECTION SWING OFFSHORE. WILL THEREFORE KEEP CHC POPS
LIMITED TO AREAS ALONG AND NE OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR WED...WITH
EMPHASIS ON THE NORTHERN NECK AND EASTERN SHORE (30-50% POPS).
COULD END UP BEING DRY OVER FAR SW ZONES. COOLER WED WITH HIGHS
ONLY 60-65.
THE CLOSED LOW MOVES FARTHER NE WED NIGHT INTO THU...LOCATING OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY 00Z FRIDAY. ANY LEFTOVER SHOWER CHANCES
BY THEN WILL BE LIMITED TO THE EASTERN SHORE (20%). DECREASING
CLOUDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS INTERIOR VA. LOWS WED NIGHT IN THE
LOW 40S TO LOW 50S. COOL AGAIN THU WITH HIGHS 60-65.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TO THE NE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS
UPPER RIDGING EXPANDS EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL US. A WEAK TROUGH
CLIPS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY MOVES OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE ERN US EARLY
NEXT WEEK. OVERALL...DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE
MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE MID 60S
TO AROUND 70 FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND TREND UPWARD INTO THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S SUNDAY...AND POTENTIALLY 70-75 BY MONDAY. LOWS SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 40S NW...TO THE LOW/MID 50S FOR SE COASTAL
LOCATIONS.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR WX IS FORECAST THROUGH 00Z TAF PERIOD. EXPECTING PERIODS OF MID
LVL CLDNS (CIGS MAINLY 10-15KFT) TNGT W/ SCT-BKN CLDNS (MAINLY 10-12
KFT) EARLY TUE MRNG LWRG TO 5-6K FT TUE AFTN. NO PCPN IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT WITH LOW LEVELS TOO DRY BUT THERE IS A CHC FOR SHOWERS
MAINLY AT SBY BY TUESDAY AFTN (NOT IN TAF). LIGHT S WINDS BECOME W
NEAR 10 KNOTS TOWARD MIDDAY TUESDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH.
OUTLOOK...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST DEEPENS AND
LINGERS OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST THROUGH MID WEEK. THERE WILL BE A
CHC FOR SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS (ESPECIALLY ERN PORTIONS) TUE NIGHT
AND WED ENDING WED NIGHT. MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER INTO EARLY THURSDAY
BUT NO SIGNIFICANT IFR IS INDICATED. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
AWAY FROM THE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH DRY AND VFR CONDS.
&&
.MARINE...
10 PM UPDATE...WINDS AND SEAS HAVE INCREASED WELL OFFSHORE (OFF
THE MD COAST) ACCORDING TO BUOY 09. SEAS ARE JUST ABOUT 5 FT (4.9
FT LAST TWO HOURS). WINDS AND SEAS ARE MUCH LESS TOWARD THE COAST.
INCLUDED A STRIP OF 5 FT SEAS (THROUGH 06Z) IN THE ZONES N OF
PARRAMORE ISLAND BUT HOLDING OFF ON SCA FOR NOW.
HI RES MODELS ARE OVERDOING THE WINDS OVER THE BAY. AS AIR
TEMPERATURES COOL...MIXING WILL INCREASE AND WINDS MAY INCREASE
BUT EXPECT THEM TO STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE TONIGHT...ALLOWING THE WIND
TO REMAIN S/SW. EXPECT SUB-SCA CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WITH WIND
SPEEDS AVERAGING UP TO 15-20 KT ACRS NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS...AND
GENERALLY 10-15 KT ELSEWHERE. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS
THE COAST LATE TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING...FOLLOWED BY EVENTUAL SCA
CONDITIONS LATER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING AS SFC LOW PRESSURE
THEN DEEPENS OFF THE COAST. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO STALL
OFFSHORE THURSDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BRINGING A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS. WITH FLOW BEING OFFSHORE FROM THE
NW...SEAS WOULD TEND TO STAY CAPPED AT 5-6 FT AND TIDAL FLOODING
IS NOT EXPECTED. N/NW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT
WEEKEND WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING TO 10-15KT AND SEAS SUBSIDING.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM/JAO
SHORT TERM...JDM/SAM
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...AJZ/LSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
944 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...LOCATING
OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST FOR MUCH OF THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED WELL OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING
ALLOWING FOR A RELAXING PRES GRAD ALONG THE COAST AND INLAND WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS 10 KT OR LESS. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST TONIGHT...WITH A SFC COLD FRONT
REACHING THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS AROUND 12Z TUE.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH HAS BEEN
PROVIDING WEAK LIFT SUPPORTING A THIN BAND OF ISOLD SHOWERS ON
RADAR OVER THE WESTERN CWA...HOWEVER DUE TO THE DRY AIR IN PLACE
IN THE LOWER LEVELS MOST OF THE RADAR ARE RESULTING IN VIRGA. BUFR
SOUNDINGS SHOW OVERALL DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE TONIGHT (PW`S AOB
0.75")...SO IT WILL BE HARD TO GET MUCH OF PCPN TO REACH THE
GROUND. THE HRRR TIES TO DEVELOP A THIN BAND OF SHOWERS EAST OF
I-95 AROUND 06Z...BUT THIS APPEARS TO BE OVERDONE. THAT SAID
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW BRIEF SPRINKLES OVERNIGHT. OVERALL DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU TONIGHT WITH SOME INCREASING CLOUD
COVER. THE CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT SW FLOW COULD KEEP SOME AREAS
FROM REACHING FORECAST LOWS KEEPING CONDITIONS MILDER. LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER WEST TO MID 50S AT THE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FLOW AMPLIFIES DURING THE SHORT TERM AS A BLOCKING PATTERN DEVELOPS
OVER ERN CANADA. ADDITIONAL ENERGY DIVES SOUTH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES/OH VALLEY TUES THANKS TO A ~100 KT JET STREAK DIVING SWD
FROM CANADA. AS A RESULT...UPPER LOW PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE NE STATES LATE TUESDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL
PROGRESS SLOWLY EWD TUES NIGHT INTO WED...LOCATING OFF THE
DELMARVA COAST LATE WED. WITH THE UPR LOW PIVOTING ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA TUE/TUE NIGHT...WILL SEE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
DEVELOP ESPECIALLY NORTH/NE WHERE BEST UPWARD MOTION IS
ANTICIPATED. HAVE CHANCE (POPS 25-40%) ALONG AND NE OF A LINE FROM
LKU-OFP-MFV ON TUE...THEN BEST CHANCE (30-50%) MAINLY ALONG THE
VA COAST AND ONTO THE EASTERN SHORE TUE NIGHT. ELSEWHERE...WILL
CARRY NO HIGHER THEN 20% POPS. HIGHS TUE IN THE UPPER 60S NW TO
MID 70S SE. LOWS TUE NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. MOSTLY
CLOUDY NORTH TO PARTLY CLOUDY SOUTH DURING THIE TIME.
DEEP UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST AND OFFSHORE WED.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FAIRLY DRY ALOFT OVER INLAND SECTIONS AS THE
TROUGH/SFC REFLECTION SWING OFFSHORE. WILL THEREFORE KEEP CHC POPS
LIMITED TO AREAS ALONG AND NE OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR WED...WITH
EMPHASIS ON THE NORTHERN NECK AND EASTERN SHORE (30-50% POPS).
COULD END UP BEING DRY OVER FAR SW ZONES. COOLER WED WITH HIGHS
ONLY 60-65.
THE CLOSED LOW MOVES FARTHER NE WED NIGHT INTO THU...LOCATING OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY 00Z FRIDAY. ANY LEFTOVER SHOWER CHANCES
BY THEN WILL BE LIMITED TO THE EASTERN SHORE (20%). DECREASING
CLOUDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS INTERIOR VA. LOWS WED NIGHT IN THE
LOW 40S TO LOW 50S. COOL AGAIN THU WITH HIGHS 60-65.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TO THE NE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS
UPPER RIDGING EXPANDS EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL US. A WEAK TROUGH
CLIPS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY MOVES OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE ERN US EARLY
NEXT WEEK. OVERALL...DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE
MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE MID 60S
TO AROUND 70 FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND TREND UPWARD INTO THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S SUNDAY...AND POTENTIALLY 70-75 BY MONDAY. LOWS SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 40S NW...TO THE LOW/MID 50S FOR SE COASTAL
LOCATIONS.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR WX IS FORECAST THROUGH 00Z TAF PERIOD. EXPECTING PERIODS OF MID
LVL CLDNS (CIGS MAINLY 10-15KFT) TNGT W/ SCT-BKN CLDNS (MAINLY 10-12
KFT) EARLY TUE MRNG LWRG TO 5-6K FT TUE AFTN. NO PCPN IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT WITH LOW LEVELS TOO DRY BUT THERE IS A CHC FOR SHOWERS
MAINLY AT SBY BY TUESDAY AFTN (NOT IN TAF). LIGHT S WINDS BECOME W
NEAR 10 KNOTS TOWARD MIDDAY TUESDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH.
OUTLOOK...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST DEEPENS AND
LINGERS OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST THROUGH MID WEEK. THERE WILL BE A
CHC FOR SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS (ESPECIALLY ERN PORTIONS) TUE NIGHT
AND WED ENDING WED NIGHT. MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER INTO EARLY THURSDAY
BUT NO SIGNIFICANT IFR IS INDICATED. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
AWAY FROM THE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH DRY AND VFR CONDS.
&&
.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE TONIGHT...ALLOWING THE WIND TO
REMAIN S/SW. EXPECT SUB-SCA CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WITH WIND SPEEDS
AVERAGING UP TO 15-20 KT ACRS NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS...AND
GENERALLY 10-15 KT ELSEWHERE. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS
THE COAST LATE TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING...FOLLOWED BY EVENTUAL SCA
CONDITIONS LATER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING AS SFC LOW
PRESSURE THEN DEEPENS OFF THE COAST. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
STALL OFFSHORE THURSDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BRINGING A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS. WITH FLOW BEING OFFSHORE FROM
THE NW...SEAS WOULD TEND TO STAY CAPPED AT 5-6 FT AND TIDAL FLOODING
IS NOT EXPECTED. N/NW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND
WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING TO 10-15KT AND SEAS SUBSIDING.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM/JAO
SHORT TERM...JDM/SAM
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...AJZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
708 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES INTO THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES AND A RIDGE OVER
THE WRN PLAINS RESULTING IN NNW FLOW THROUGH THE THE WRN LAKES. AT
THE SFC...NNW WINDS PREVAILED BTWN LOW PRES OVER NRN LAKE HURON AND
HIGH PRES OVER NW ONTARIO. THE COMBINATION OF ABUNDANT SFC-800 MB
MOISTURE...CYCLONIC AND UPSLOPE NRLY FLOW AND 850 MB TEMPS AROUND
-1C (LAKE WATER TEMPS STILL NEAR 8C-9C) WAS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME
SCT LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES INTO W AND N CNTRL UPPER MI.
TONIGHT...UPSTREAM OBS MDLS SUGGEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST
AS 850 MB TEMPS FALL TO NEAR -4C...HELPING TO SUSTAIN SOME LIGHT
PCPN. AS THE NW ONTARIO HIGH BUILDS TO THE SE...VEERING WINDS TO
NNE WILL SHIFT THE REMAINING LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS MAINLY INTO N
CNTRL UPPER MI...WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW IS MAXIMIZED. EVEN THOUGH
WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS FALL BELOW 500 FT AGL...EXPECT THAT THE LAKE
OF ICE NUCLEI IN THE MOIST LAYER THAT ONLY EXTENDS TO NEAR
-5C...WILL NOT SUPPORT SNOW. CLOUDS WILL LINGER OVER MOST OF THE
AREA...KEEPING MIN READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. HOWEVER...THERE
MAY BE SOME CLEARING OVER THE EAST WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW FROM ONTARIO E
OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
TUE...THE LINGERING 2K-3K FT LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL KEEP
MOISTURE/CLOUDS TRAPPED INTO THE MORNING...ESPECIALLY DOWNSTREAM OF
MOISTENING OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. BY AFTERNOON...EXPECT ENOUGH
HEATING/MIXING AND DRY ADVECTION TO BRING DIMINISHING CLOUDS THAT
WILL PUSH TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 40S OVER THE S AND WEST WHILE LOWER
READINGS IN THE LOW 40S PREVAIL OVER THE NORTH.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING WILL BE DRY FOR THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES...AS THE 500MB TROUGH OVERHEAD TODAY DIGS INTO THE NE
U.S. THIS WILL SET UP RIDGING AT THE SFC AND ALOFT FOR THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES...WITH SLOWLY MODIFYING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. THE MAIN
CONCERN FOR THOSE WITH SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS STILL WILL BE
MORNING LOWS TUESDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL FALL AT OR BELOW 32F FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA EXCLUDING THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA.
THURSDAY...MODELS HAVE COME IN A BIT WETTER FOR THE
THURSDAY-THURSDAY EVENING TIME PERIOD AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DIGS
ACROSS ONTARIO AND MN DURING THE DAY. WHILE THE MAIN SFC LOW WILL
STILL BE OVER W CANADA AT THAT TIME...A SFC TROUGH OVER MANITOBA AND
NW MN THURSDAY MORNING WILL NEAR THE REGION. WITH UPPER MI STUCK IN
THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IN BETWEEN THE DEEPENING LOW OFF THE NE
COAST...AND THE CANADIAN LOW. LIMITED E PROGRESS OF SHOWERS IS STILL
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH POPS WERE INCREASED SLIGHTLY FOR THE W...AND
WERE EXTENDED INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF BACK
THIS SOLUTION.
LOOK FOR THE 500MB WAVE TO PUSH E OF LAKE SUPERIOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH ANY LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS ENDING. THE W CANADIAN
SFC LOW-500MB LOW WILL SHIFT INTO NE MANITOBA OVERNIGHT...WITH WARM
AIR SURGING INTO UPPER MI. 850MB TEMPS OF 8-12C LOOK REASONABLE
FRIDAY NIGHT ON WSW WINDS...WITH SFC TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 40S.
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE OUR TRANSITION PERIOD...AS ZONAL
FLOW SLIDES IN ALOFT...AND THE SFC RIDGE EXITS TO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE FCST GUIDANCE...SHOWING UP
ON THE IDEA OF HOW MUCH COLD AIR WILL BE ABLE TO SNEAK IN FROM THE
NW. THE 20/00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF HAS 850MB TEMPS AROUND 2C AT 00Z
SUNDAY...WHILE THE 20/12Z IS AT A MUCH MORE MILD 7C. WILL KEEP WITH
A MORE BLENDED SOLUTION FOR THE FCST STILL AT THIS POINT.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL BRING ABOUT A RETURN OF THE 500MB
RIDGE...EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH ONTARIO. THIS
RIDGE WILL SLOWLY EXIT TOWARD THE NEW ENGLAND STATES ON MONDAY AS A
TROUGH SETTLES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND NEARS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF WET WEATHER LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
OF NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPS REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 707 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014
EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO PREVAIL INTO TONIGHT...THOUGH A PERIOD OF IFR
CIGS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AT SAW DUE TO STRONGER UPSLOPE WIND
DIRECTION OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT KSAW OVERNIGHT. THE PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF CMX FIRST TUE MORNING AND THEN IN THE
AFTERNOON AT IWD...BUT SHOULD LINGER AT SAW THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014
LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR NEAR WHITEFISH POINT WILL
MOVE TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT.
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BTWN THE EXITING LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE BUILDING OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO. EXPECT NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS INCREASING TO 25-30 KTS THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENING OVER
CNTRL AND EASTERN LK SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY MORNING
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES ACROSS LK SUPERIOR. WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KTS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH STRONGER
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES NORTHERN ONTARIO.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
655 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014
THE CURRENT DISTURBANCE BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT ACROSS THE E THIRD OF THE CWA THIS EVENING.
LOOKING UPSTREAM...A THICK LAYER OF IFR CEILING LOOKS TO BE IN STORE
FOR MUCH OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW A TREND
SIMILAR TO THE HRRR FOR TIMING...AS IT/S HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE
PRECIP SO FAR. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN REPORTED ACROSS N
ONTARIO AS WELL AS CENTRAL AND N MANITOBA. SNOW WILL NOT BE THE
LIKELY PRECIP TYPE ACROSS UPPER MI THROUGH...IF ANY PRECIPITATION
DOES FALL TONIGHT IT SHOULD BE ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW. THIS IS
DISPUTE THE RETURN OF NNW FLOW BEHIND THE SFC LOW THAT WILL BE
SHIFTING OVERHEAD...MOVING FROM THE W THIRD OF THE CWA BY 00Z MONDAY
TO THE E HALF 06-12Z MONDAY. SFC TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN
THE LOW 40S.
AN ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM HUDSON BAY
THROUGH MANITOBA AND W MN AT DAYBREAK MONDAY WILL SLOWLY INVADE
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS....ALONG WITH A SERIES OF WAVES IN THE
N-NNW FLOW AT 500MB. FAVORABLE UPSLOPE NEAR SFC N-NNW WINDS
REMAINING ON MONDAY...AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW
850MB...AND COOL 850MB TEMPS AROUND -1C...WILL RESULT IN LIGHT
SHOWER/DRIZZLE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE DAY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. LAKE
ENHANCEMENT WILL REMAIN LIMITED DUE TO THE MARGINAL DELTA-T
VALUES...WITH LAKE SUPERIOR STILL AROUND 7C. TEMPS WILL NOT CLIMB
MUCH PAST THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014
AS OPPOSED TO LAST WEEKS MOSTLY GLOOMY WET WEATHER...MOST DAYS THIS
WEEK WILL BE DRY AND WARMER WITH MORE SUNSHINE. IT`S LIKELY MANY
AREAS WON`T SEE ANY PCPN TUE THRU SUN. INITIALLY...AN AMPLIFYING
RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL SEND A SHORTWAVE DIVING SE THRU THE
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND MON. WAVE WILL THEN EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED LOW
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THRU THE MID WEEK PERIOD BEFORE
DRIFTING NE LATE WEEK. MEANWHILE...THE UPSTREAM RIDGE WILL SHIFT E
SO THAT A ZONE OF POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES WILL EXTEND FROM THE SRN
ROCKIES ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES INTO NRN QUEBEC DURING THE MID AND
LATE WEEK PERIOD...SUGGESTING A WARMER/DRIER PERIOD OF WEATHER.
SO...AFTER A COOL START TO THE WEEK...TEMPS WILL TREND ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK. A SHORTWAVE TROF REACHING THE W COAST
MON WILL SHIFT E DURING THE WEEK...BUT WILL WEAKEN SUBSTANTIALLY AS
IT RUNS INTO THE RIDGE/POSITIVE ANOMALIES. SYSTEM MAY STILL GENERATE
A FEW SHRA IN THE UPPER LAKES THU. OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES IN WHETHER THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
REMAIN A WARMER W TO SW OR SHIFT TO THE NW TO BRING A RETURN TO
COLDER CONDITIONS.
BEGINNING MON NIGHT....PRONOUNCED MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE
SHIFTING OUT OVER THE PLAINS AND EXTENDING TO HUDSON BAY. AT THE
SFC...ASSOCIATED HIGH PRES CENTER WILL BE DRIFTING ACROSS NRN
ONTARIO WITH RIDGE EXTENDING SSW ACROSS WRN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY 12Z TUE...BRINGING LARGER SCALE
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. APPROACH OF THE RIDGE WILL RESULT IN LOWERING
INVERSION/DIMINISHING DEEP MOISTURE THRU THE NIGHT. BY 12Z...
INVERSION BASE WILL BE DOWN TO AROUND 3KFT OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. 850MB
TEMPS AROUND -2 TO -3C WILL BE MARGINAL AT BEST FOR LAKE EFFECT PCPN
DURING THE NIGHT AS THERE IS ONLY A NARROW ZONE OF WATER TEMPS NEAR
10C ALONG THE SRN SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. OPEN WATER TEMPS ARE IN
THE 6-8C RANGE. FURTHER LIMITING PCPN POTENTIAL WILL BE DEEP LAYER
QVECTOR DIVERGENCE/SUBSIDENCE. ANY DAYTIME AIDED SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL END DURING MON EVENING...AND AS WINDS VEER NORTHEASTERLY...ONLY
NCNTRL UPPER MI...AIDED BY UPSLOPE...WILL HAVE ANY CHC OF SEEING
SOME LIGHT PCPN LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT. POPS WILL BE KEPT LOW IN
THE SCHC/LOW CHC RANGE. AS THE DEEP MOISTURE PULLS OUT...LEAVING
TEMPS IN THE MOIST LAYER MUCH HIGHER THAN -10C...POTENTIAL FOR ICE
CRYSTALS IN THE CLOUD WILL BE VERY LOW...SO ONLY -SHRA WILL BE
MENTIONED IN FCST.
CLOUDS WILL DECREASE ON TUE...BUT MOST SLOWLY OVER THE CNTRL AS
ADDED MOISTURE FROM LAKE SUPERIOR COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL
HELP TO MAINTAIN A STRATOCU DECK LONGER.
TUE NIGHT SHOULD BE QUITE CHILLY UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM
WIND ASSOCIATED WITH SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER THE AREA. WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER 35-55 PCT OF NORMAL...WENT WITH MIN TEMPS AT OR
BLO THE LOWEST GUIDANCE. 20S SHOULD BE COMMON IN THE INTERIOR.
A WARMER...SUNNY DAY WILL FOLLOW ON WED UNDER MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS. ALL GUIDANCE APPEARS TOO COOL AS MIXING TO AROUND 900MB ON
FCST SOUNDINGS SUPPORTS MAX TEMPS AT LEAST INTO THE LWR 50S E AND
INTO THE UPPER 50S W.
TROF THAT MOVES ONSHORE OVER THE W COAST LATE MON WILL REACH THE
UPPER LAKES THU...BUT IN A SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENED STATE. IN
ADDITION...MODELS SHOW ENERGY IN THE TROF SPLITTING WITH ONE PIECE
SETTLING SE THRU THE PLAINS AND THE OTHER PIECE LIFTING TO HUDSON
BAY. WITH SYSTEM CONTINUING TO WEAKEN...ONLY SCHC POPS WERE INCLUDED
OVER WRN UPPER MI THU.
A WARM DAY FOR LATE OCT SHOULD FOLLOW FOR FRI AS RIBBON OF
MOISTURE/CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH DECAYING TROF SHIFTS E OF THE
AREA...ALLOWING SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY. AT THIS POINT...IT
LOOKS LIKE FRI HAS THE BEST SHOT OF BEING THE WARMEST DAY OF THIS
FCST PERIOD UNDER SW FLOW. MANY LOCATIONS SHOULD REACH AT LEAST 60F
FOR MAX TEMPS ON FRI.
AS ALLUDED TO ABOVE...MODEL DIFFERENCES DEVELOP OVER THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AS THE 00Z GFS/UKMET INDICATE MORE SUBSTANTIAL TROFFING
ARRIVING ALONG THE W COAST FRI...WHICH HELPS MAINTAIN MORE
RIDGING/WARMER CONDITIONS DOWNSTREAM INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE 00Z
ECMWF/CMC HAVE THIS TROF FARTHER OFFSHORE. THIS RESULTS IN A FARTHER
W RIDGE AXIS WHICH THEN ALLOWS A SHORTWAVE TO DIVE MORE TO THE SE
INTO THE GREAT LAKES...BRINGING A SHOT OF COLDER AIR. THE 12Z RUNS
DIDN`T HELP CLARIFY THE ISSUE...BUT IT DOES APPEAR THE ECMWF MAY BE
A BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH COOLING INTO THE UPPER LAKES. IN ANY
EVENT...WITH SHORTWAVE PASSING TO THE N OF THE AREA...PCPN POTENTIAL
LOOKS MINIMAL AT BEST...AND FOR NOW...FCST WILL REFLECT MODEST
COOLING OVER THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS STILL ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 655 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014
VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY WILL SLOWLY FALL TO MVFR AND EVEN POSSIBLY
IFR OVERNIGHT BEHIND LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL BE CROSSING OVERHEAD.
THIS WILL BRING ABOUT FAVORABLE NW FLOW...AND AS WHAT HAS ALREADY
BEEN SEEN UPSTREAM ACROSS MANITOBA AND ONTARIO...PLENTY OF LOW
CLOUDS. THE BEST CHANCE OF IFR CEILINGS WILL BE AT SAW AROUND
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...KEPT THEM AT MVFR FOR NOW GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY. COOL LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014
LOW PRESSURE OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
OVERNIGHT...AND EXIT ACROSS LAKE HURON ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
EASTERN MANITOBA AND W MINNESOTA MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL BUILD ACROSS
ONTARIO/LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER PERIOD OF MAINLY
N GUSTS TO 25KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING OVER
CENTRAL AND E LAKE SUPERIOR. A RIDGE WILL LINGER ACROSS E LAKE
SUPERIOR INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS QUEBEC. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD LINGER INTO
FRIDAY...AS LAKE SUPERIOR GETS STUCK BETWEEN DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA...AND ANOTHER LOW NEARING FROM CENTRAL
CANADA.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...07
MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
420 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014
THE CURRENT DISTURBANCE BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT ACROSS THE E THIRD OF THE CWA THIS EVENING.
LOOKING UPSTREAM...A THICK LAYER OF IFR CEILING LOOKS TO BE IN STORE
FOR MUCH OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW A TREND
SIMILAR TO THE HRRR FOR TIMING...AS IT/S HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE
PRECIP SO FAR. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN REPORTED ACROSS N
ONTARIO AS WELL AS CENTRAL AND N MANITOBA. SNOW WILL NOT BE THE
LIKELY PRECIP TYPE ACROSS UPPER MI THROUGH...IF ANY PRECIPITATION
DOES FALL TONIGHT IT SHOULD BE ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW. THIS IS
DISPUTE THE RETURN OF NNW FLOW BEHIND THE SFC LOW THAT WILL BE
SHIFTING OVERHEAD...MOVING FROM THE W THIRD OF THE CWA BY 00Z MONDAY
TO THE E HALF 06-12Z MONDAY. SFC TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN
THE LOW 40S.
AN ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM HUDSON BAY
THROUGH MANITOBA AND W MN AT DAYBREAK MONDAY WILL SLOWLY INVADE
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS....ALONG WITH A SERIES OF WAVES IN THE
N-NNW FLOW AT 500MB. FAVORABLE UPSLOPE NEAR SFC N-NNW WINDS
REMAINING ON MONDAY...AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW
850MB...AND COOL 850MB TEMPS AROUND -1C...WILL RESULT IN LIGHT
SHOWER/DRIZZLE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE DAY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. LAKE
ENHANCEMENT WILL REMAIN LIMITED DUE TO THE MARGINAL DELTA-T
VALUES...WITH LAKE SUPERIOR STILL AROUND 7C. TEMPS WILL NOT CLIMB
MUCH PAST THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014
AS OPPOSED TO LAST WEEKS MOSTLY GLOOMY WET WEATHER...MOST DAYS THIS
WEEK WILL BE DRY AND WARMER WITH MORE SUNSHINE. IT`S LIKELY MANY
AREAS WON`T SEE ANY PCPN TUE THRU SUN. INITIALLY...AN AMPLIFYING
RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL SEND A SHORTWAVE DIVING SE THRU THE
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND MON. WAVE WILL THEN EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED LOW
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THRU THE MID WEEK PERIOD BEFORE
DRIFTING NE LATE WEEK. MEANWHILE...THE UPSTREAM RIDGE WILL SHIFT E
SO THAT A ZONE OF POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES WILL EXTEND FROM THE SRN
ROCKIES ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES INTO NRN QUEBEC DURING THE MID AND
LATE WEEK PERIOD...SUGGESTING A WARMER/DRIER PERIOD OF WEATHER.
SO...AFTER A COOL START TO THE WEEK...TEMPS WILL TREND ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK. A SHORTWAVE TROF REACHING THE W COAST
MON WILL SHIFT E DURING THE WEEK...BUT WILL WEAKEN SUBSTANTIALLY AS
IT RUNS INTO THE RIDGE/POSITIVE ANOMALIES. SYSTEM MAY STILL GENERATE
A FEW SHRA IN THE UPPER LAKES THU. OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES IN WHETHER THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
REMAIN A WARMER W TO SW OR SHIFT TO THE NW TO BRING A RETURN TO
COLDER CONDITIONS.
BEGINNING MON NIGHT....PRONOUNCED MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE
SHIFTING OUT OVER THE PLAINS AND EXTENDING TO HUDSON BAY. AT THE
SFC...ASSOCIATED HIGH PRES CENTER WILL BE DRIFTING ACROSS NRN
ONTARIO WITH RIDGE EXTENDING SSW ACROSS WRN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY 12Z TUE...BRINGING LARGER SCALE
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. APPROACH OF THE RIDGE WILL RESULT IN LOWERING
INVERSION/DIMINISHING DEEP MOISTURE THRU THE NIGHT. BY 12Z...
INVERSION BASE WILL BE DOWN TO AROUND 3KFT OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. 850MB
TEMPS AROUND -2 TO -3C WILL BE MARGINAL AT BEST FOR LAKE EFFECT PCPN
DURING THE NIGHT AS THERE IS ONLY A NARROW ZONE OF WATER TEMPS NEAR
10C ALONG THE SRN SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. OPEN WATER TEMPS ARE IN
THE 6-8C RANGE. FURTHER LIMITING PCPN POTENTIAL WILL BE DEEP LAYER
QVECTOR DIVERGENCE/SUBSIDENCE. ANY DAYTIME AIDED SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL END DURING MON EVENING...AND AS WINDS VEER NORTHEASTERLY...ONLY
NCNTRL UPPER MI...AIDED BY UPSLOPE...WILL HAVE ANY CHC OF SEEING
SOME LIGHT PCPN LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT. POPS WILL BE KEPT LOW IN
THE SCHC/LOW CHC RANGE. AS THE DEEP MOISTURE PULLS OUT...LEAVING
TEMPS IN THE MOIST LAYER MUCH HIGHER THAN -10C...POTENTIAL FOR ICE
CRYSTALS IN THE CLOUD WILL BE VERY LOW...SO ONLY -SHRA WILL BE
MENTIONED IN FCST.
CLOUDS WILL DECREASE ON TUE...BUT MOST SLOWLY OVER THE CNTRL AS
ADDED MOISTURE FROM LAKE SUPERIOR COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL
HELP TO MAINTAIN A STRATOCU DECK LONGER.
TUE NIGHT SHOULD BE QUITE CHILLY UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM
WIND ASSOCIATED WITH SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER THE AREA. WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER 35-55 PCT OF NORMAL...WENT WITH MIN TEMPS AT OR
BLO THE LOWEST GUIDANCE. 20S SHOULD BE COMMON IN THE INTERIOR.
A WARMER...SUNNY DAY WILL FOLLOW ON WED UNDER MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS. ALL GUIDANCE APPEARS TOO COOL AS MIXING TO AROUND 900MB ON
FCST SOUNDINGS SUPPORTS MAX TEMPS AT LEAST INTO THE LWR 50S E AND
INTO THE UPPER 50S W.
TROF THAT MOVES ONSHORE OVER THE W COAST LATE MON WILL REACH THE
UPPER LAKES THU...BUT IN A SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENED STATE. IN
ADDITION...MODELS SHOW ENERGY IN THE TROF SPLITTING WITH ONE PIECE
SETTLING SE THRU THE PLAINS AND THE OTHER PIECE LIFTING TO HUDSON
BAY. WITH SYSTEM CONTINUING TO WEAKEN...ONLY SCHC POPS WERE INCLUDED
OVER WRN UPPER MI THU.
A WARM DAY FOR LATE OCT SHOULD FOLLOW FOR FRI AS RIBBON OF
MOISTURE/CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH DECAYING TROF SHIFTS E OF THE
AREA...ALLOWING SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY. AT THIS POINT...IT
LOOKS LIKE FRI HAS THE BEST SHOT OF BEING THE WARMEST DAY OF THIS
FCST PERIOD UNDER SW FLOW. MANY LOCATIONS SHOULD REACH AT LEAST 60F
FOR MAX TEMPS ON FRI.
AS ALLUDED TO ABOVE...MODEL DIFFERENCES DEVELOP OVER THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AS THE 00Z GFS/UKMET INDICATE MORE SUBSTANTIAL TROFFING
ARRIVING ALONG THE W COAST FRI...WHICH HELPS MAINTAIN MORE
RIDGING/WARMER CONDITIONS DOWNSTREAM INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE 00Z
ECMWF/CMC HAVE THIS TROF FARTHER OFFSHORE. THIS RESULTS IN A FARTHER
W RIDGE AXIS WHICH THEN ALLOWS A SHORTWAVE TO DIVE MORE TO THE SE
INTO THE GREAT LAKES...BRINGING A SHOT OF COLDER AIR. THE 12Z RUNS
DIDN`T HELP CLARIFY THE ISSUE...BUT IT DOES APPEAR THE ECMWF MAY BE
A BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH COOLING INTO THE UPPER LAKES. IN ANY
EVENT...WITH SHORTWAVE PASSING TO THE N OF THE AREA...PCPN POTENTIAL
LOOKS MINIMAL AT BEST...AND FOR NOW...FCST WILL REFLECT MODEST
COOLING OVER THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS STILL ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 132 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014
VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY WILL SLOWLY FALL TO MVFR AND EVEN POSSIBLY
IFR OVERNIGHT BEHIND LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL BE CROSSING OVERHEAD.
THIS WILL BRING ABOUT FAVORABLE NW FLOW...AND AS WHAT HAS ALREADY
BEEN SEEN UPSTREAM ACROSS MANITOBA AND ONTARIO...PLENTY OF LOW
CLOUDS. THE BEST CHANCE OF IFR CEILINGS WILL BE AT SAW AROUND
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...KEPT THEM AT MVFR FOR NOW GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY. COOL LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014
LOW PRESSURE OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
OVERNIGHT...AND EXIT ACROSS LAKE HURON ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
EASTERN MANITOBA AND W MINNESOTA MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL BUILD ACROSS
ONTARIO/LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER PERIOD OF MAINLY
N GUSTS TO 25KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING OVER
CENTRAL AND E LAKE SUPERIOR. A RIDGE WILL LINGER ACROSS E LAKE
SUPERIOR INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS QUEBEC. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD LINGER INTO
FRIDAY...AS LAKE SUPERIOR GETS STUCK BETWEEN DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA...AND ANOTHER LOW NEARING FROM CENTRAL
CANADA.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
323 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014
THE CURRENT DISTURBANCE BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT ACROSS THE E THIRD OF THE CWA THIS EVENING.
LOOKING UPSTREAM...A THICK LAYER OF IFR CEILING LOOKS TO BE IN STORE
FOR MUCH OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW A TREND
SIMILAR TO THE HRRR FOR TIMING...AS IT/S HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE
PRECIP SO FAR. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN REPORTED ACROSS N
ONTARIO AS WELL AS CENTRAL AND N MANITOBA. SNOW WILL NOT BE THE
LIKELY PRECIP TYPE ACROSS UPPER MI THROUGH...IF ANY PRECIPITATION
DOES FALL TONIGHT IT SHOULD BE ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW. THIS IS
DISPUTE THE RETURN OF NNW FLOW BEHIND THE SFC LOW THAT WILL BE
SHIFTING OVERHEAD...MOVING FROM THE W THIRD OF THE CWA BY 00Z MONDAY
TO THE E HALF 06-12Z MONDAY. SFC TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN
THE LOW 40S.
AN ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM HUDSON BAY
THROUGH MANITOBA AND W MN AT DAYBREAK MONDAY WILL SLOWLY INVADE
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS....ALONG WITH A SERIES OF WAVES IN THE
N-NNW FLOW AT 500MB. FAVORABLE UPSLOPE NEAR SFC N-NNW WINDS
REMAINING ON MONDAY...AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW
850MB...AND COOL 850MB TEMPS AROUND -1C...WILL RESULT IN LIGHT
SHOWER/DRIZZLE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE DAY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. LAKE
ENHANCEMENT WILL REMAIN LIMITED DUE TO THE MARGINAL DELTA-T
VALUES...WITH LAKE SUPERIOR STILL AROUND 7C. TEMPS WILL NOT CLIMB
MUCH PAST THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014
WEAK UPPER RIDGING OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO A
SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND THROUGH
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL BE
LOCATED OVER EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AT 12Z MONDAY AND QUICKLY MOVE
SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA ON MONDAY MORNING. WHILE MUCH OF THE
SYNOPTIC PRECIPITATION WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA ON MONDAY...ABUNDANT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO CLOUDY
CONDITIONS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS (ESPECIALLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTHERN U.P.). THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY
NIGHT UNTIL DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA WITH A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE. WILL FOCUS THE BEST POPS (HIGH END SLIGHTS AND LOW
END CHANCES) ON MONDAY IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS FAVORED BY
NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS. SINCE DELTA-T VALUES WILL ONLY BE 8...ANY
LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL BE LIMITED AND WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS. THE PRECIP WILL FALL AS RAIN ON MONDAY WITH
CLOUD TEMPS ONLY REACHING -2C AND WETBULB0 VALUES BEING WELL ABOVE
1.5KFT. AS WINDS VEER TO THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE
APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM ONTARIO...EXPECT A TRANSITION
TO UPSLOPE LOCATIONS FAVORED BY THAT WIND DIRECTION (PRIMARILY OVER
THE NORTH CENTRAL U.P.). ALTHOUGH WETBULB0 HEIGHTS WOULD SUPPORT
SOME SNOW MIXING IN ON MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE NORTH CENTRAL U.P....THERE WILL BE A LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR ICE
CRYSTALS IN THE CLOUD AND WILL STICK WITH RAIN. SINCE INVERSION
HEIGHTS WILL BE LOWERING DURING MONDAY NIGHT...WILL SLOWLY LOWER THE
POPS AND HAVE THEM DIMINISHED BY SUNRISE ON TUESDAY. STILL EXPECT
THE CLOUDS TO LINGER OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN UPPER MICHIGAN INTO
TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE THE DRYING FROM THE HIGH REALLY TAKES HOLD.
THIS HIGH WILL THEN LEAD TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. AS FOR
TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD...EXPECT THE COOLEST HIGHS ON
MONDAY/TUESDAY (MID 40S TO LOWER 50S) AND THEN WARMING WEDNESDAY TO
NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES.
FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...THE AREA WILL BE ON THE NORTHEAST
EDGE OF AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN/CENTRAL CONUS...LEADING TO
NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE MAIN
PRECIPITATION CHANCE WILL COME LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AS A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE
AREA. SINCE THE PARENT LOW WILL BE LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTH IN
CANADA...EXPECT THE PRECIP AMOUNTS TO BE LIGHT AND WILL KEEP THE
POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY. BEHIND THIS FRONT...A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY AND
LEAD TO DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A WEAK LOW DOES
APPEAR TO NEAR THE REGION ON SATURDAY...BUT MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE
LIMITED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 132 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014
VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY WILL SLOWLY FALL TO MVFR AND EVEN POSSIBLY
IFR OVERNIGHT BEHIND LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL BE CROSSING OVERHEAD.
THIS WILL BRING ABOUT FAVORABLE NW FLOW...AND AS WHAT HAS ALREADY
BEEN SEEN UPSTREAM ACROSS MANITOBA AND ONTARIO...PLENTY OF LOW
CLOUDS. THE BEST CHANCE OF IFR CEILINGS WILL BE AT SAW AROUND
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...KEPT THEM AT MVFR FOR NOW GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY. COOL LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014
LOW PRESSURE OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
OVERNIGHT...AND EXIT ACROSS LAKE HURON ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
EASTERN MANITOBA AND W MINNESOTA MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL BUILD ACROSS
ONTARIO/LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER PERIOD OF MAINLY
N GUSTS TO 25KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING OVER
CENTRAL AND E LAKE SUPERIOR. A RIDGE WILL LINGER ACROSS E LAKE
SUPERIOR INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS QUEBEC. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD LINGER INTO
FRIDAY...AS LAKE SUPERIOR GETS STUCK BETWEEN DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA...AND ANOTHER LOW NEARING FROM CENTRAL
CANADA.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
109 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014
.AVIATION...
//DISCUSSION...
DRY AIR HAS TAKEN A BIT LONGER TO MAKE ITS WAY OVER THE TAF SITES
THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...HOWEVER IT LOOKS TO HAVE FINALLY TAKEN
HOLD FROM FNT SOUTH TO THE METRO AIRPORTS. THE MAIN EXCEPTION IS MBS
WHERE LAKE CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BRING A SCT-BKN DECK AROUND 2500 TO
3000 FT. EVEN THESE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT IN A FEW
HOURS AS THE FLOW TURNS WESTERLY...ENDING THE ADVECTION OF CLOUDS
FROM NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. SUNDAY WILL BE A RATHER TRANQUIL DAY
AS RIDGING PASSES THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. CLOUDS WILL
THICKEN SUNDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKING THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. ANY RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD OR INTO
THE NEXT ISSUANCE.
//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...
* NONE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 347 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014
SHORT TERM... AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT
GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND CONTINUES TO CARRY COOLER AIR INTO SE MICHIGAN
DURING THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A
FROSTY NIGHT AS THE WIND DROPS OFF AND MIN TEMPS DROP BELOW
FREEZING. READINGS AS LOW AS THE UPPER 20S WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
INTERIOR LOWER DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER.
MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS CAPTURE THE AFTERNOON BOUNDARY LAYER
BECOMING INCREASINGLY SHALLOW AND MORE STABLE TOWARD EVENING...A
TREND ILLUSTRATED IN THE 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS BETWEEN APX AND
DTX...AND REFLECTED IN RADAR TREND DURING THE AFTERNOON. FROM
THERE...IT IS MORE DIFFICULT TO GAGE THE MODEL SOUNDING QUALITY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. THE MAIN STICKING POINT LIES WITH THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AT THE BASE OF THE STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION THAT DROPS AS LOW AS 900 MB BY 12Z SUNDAY. THERE IS ABOUT
AN EVEN SPLIT BETWEEN THE CLOUDIER NAM AND RAP MODELS VS THE MORE
OPTIMISTIC GFS AND SREF MEAN. OBSERVATIONAL EVIDENCE SUPPORTS THE
LATTER AS DRIER AIR MAKES INROADS THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES UPSTREAM CLOUDS TAKING ON A CONVINCING
LAKE INFLUENCE AND DIURNAL DEPENDENCY OVER LAND WHICH WILL RESULT IN
NOCTURNAL STRATOCU REMAINING CLOSER TO THE SHORELINES. NEUTRAL
NORTH-NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW ALSO FAVORS LESS CLOUDS IN OUR AREA
WITH A DRY DOWNSLOPE TRAJECTORY FROM NORTHERN LOWER INTO THE SAGINAW
VALLEY AND OVER THE REST OF SE MICHIGAN DURING THE NIGHT. THE
EXCEPTION COULD BE OVER THE NORTHERN/EASTERN THUMB WHERE A LONGER
OVER WATER FETCH WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM ABOUT STURGEON POINT
SOUTHWARD WHICH COULD MAINTAIN GREATER STRATOCU COVERAGE THERE
THROUGH SUNRISE SUNDAY.
LONG TERM...
MODEST HEIGHT RISES TOMORROW WITH SOME SEMBLANCE OF WARM FRONT
LIFTING NORTH THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN. UNCERTAINTY IS WITH THE AMOUNT
OF LOW LEVEL WARMING AND SCOURING OUT OF REMNANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...AS NAM SOUNDINGS/925 MB RH FIELD STILL PAINTS A POTENTIAL
CLOUD HINDRANCE...AND A SOMEWHAT CONSERVATIVE APPROACH IN MAXES WILL
BE TAKEN OFF THE COLD START AND WITH 925 MB TEMPS FORECASTED TO ONLY
RISE TO 4 C DURING PEAK HEATING...WORTHY OF MAXES AROUND 50/LOWER
50S DE AS HIGH CLOUDS ALSO EXPECTED TO RAMP UP DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY OVER WESTERN CANADA WILL BE CARVING OUT ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY AS WE HEAD
INTO MONDAY. THE RATE OF AMPLIFICATION IS A BIT UNCERTAIN...BUT
850-700 MB THETA-E RIDGE/MOISTURE AXIS LOOKS PRETTY GOOD...ARRIVING
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY...WITH HIGH CHANCE/LOW LIKELY POPS
SEEMING APPROPRIATE. 500 MB COLD CORE (-23 TO-25 C) TO TRAVERSE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...AND LI`S ARE FORECASTED TO DROP
TOWARD ZERO...WITH AROUND 500 J/KG OF CAPE (PER NAM)...AND AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT AND
CONTINUED LOW CHANCE POPS IN CASE AMPLIFICATION IS FASTER...YIELDING
SLIGHTLY SLOWER FRONTAL PASSAGE/DRYING OUT PROCESS.
UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE
SLOWLY-DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH WHICH WILL CUT OFF OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND. THIS WILL LEAD TO
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES...WITH A
RETURN TO HIGHS IN THE 60S POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
MARINE...
OBSERVATIONS LATE THIS AFTERNOON SHOW WIND GUSTS BELOW GALE FORCE
AND WILL DROP THE GALE WARNINGS WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...AS
PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS AND THE COLD ADVECTION DIMINISHES INTO
TONIGHT. MUCH LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW AS SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS SLIDES THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...LEADING TO A SHIFT IN
THE WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL
PASS THROUGH LATE MONDAY. SUSTAINED WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK OUT
AROUND 20 KNOTS SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS DEVELOPING. A STRONG HIGH BUILDING OVER ONTARIO
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL TRANSLATE TO STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS
OVER LAKE HURON...WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE LAKE...WHERE THE FETCH WILL BE GREATEST. HIGHER WAVES
WILL IMPACT NEARSHORE WATERS WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW...AND SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT
HURON INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY...UNTIL 4 AM SUNDAY.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....KURIMSKI
SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM....SF/DT
MARINE.......SF
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
853 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014
.UPDATE...
NO UPDATE NEEDED TONIGHT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED UPPER RIDGE
AXIS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS WITH UPPER JET ORIENTED N-S
OVER THE PACIFIC NW. STRONG SHORTWAVE WAS MOVING INTO N CA.
FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER A GRADUALLY MOISTENING SW FLOW
OVERNIGHT...AS SHORTWAVE ROTATES TOWARD SW ID. RIGHT-REAR
QUADRANT OF JET WILL SLIDE E TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. SOME
SHOWERS WERE NOTED THIS EVENING ON RADAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET
OVER ID AND FAR W MT. OTHER ECHOES WERE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
IN SE ID/NW WY EARLIER THIS EVENING...BUT HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED
WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. HRRR SHOWED SOME POSSIBLE SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE SW CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA AT 12Z...BUT
GFS AND WRF TIME-HEIGHTS KEPT IT DRY NEAR THE SURFACE. WILL KEEP
THE FORECAST AREA DRY OVERNIGHT. THE MORNING POPS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS LOOKED GOOD. WILL LIKELY SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
CLOUDS OVER THE FAR WESTERN FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. 850
MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20C TONIGHT. THESE
TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH LEE TROUGHING AND INCREASING CLOUDS
WILL KEEP LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S. WINDS SHOULD BE GUSTY AT TIMES
IN THE GAP AREAS BUT NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY HEADLINES
GIVEN THE LIMITED STRENGTH OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT.
NEW WRF HAD THE COLD FRONT REACHING SE MT BY 00Z WED WITH
INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES POST-FRONTALLY. THIS WAS IN LINE
WITH THE OTHER MODELS AND CURRENT FORECAST. ARTHUR
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TUE AND WED...
AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE WAS SITUATED OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AT
THE MOMENT. THIS HAS ALLOWED DOWNSLOPE WARMING WITH READINGS
REACHING WELL INTO THE 70S THIS AFTERNOON. THE RIDGE WAS BEING
PUSHED EAST BY AN APPROACHING WEST COAST TROUGH WHICH WILL BE THE
WEATHER MAKER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
A STRONG DISTURBANCE AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WAS SITTING JUST
OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
INTO EASTERN IDAHO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PRODUCE A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS OVER WESTERN ZONES AND INCREASE CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL
ZONES. THE WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE NORTHEAST AND MOVE OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL MONTANA TUESDAY EVENING. THIS...ALONG WITH AN
ADVANCING COLD FRONT...WILL GENERATE ASCENT FOR A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. THE SYSTEM WAS LIFTING FARTHER NORTH NOW...AND THUS THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LOOKS LESS...BUT THE CHANCE OF STRONGER WINDS
LOOKS BETTER.
THE COLD FRONT WILL DRIVE THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES
TUESDAY EVENING. THE FRONT WAS MOVING A BIT QUICKER AND THE
GRADIENT WAS TIGHTER THAN IN PREVIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS...SO IT
APPEARS THIS FRONT WILL HAVE A LITTLE MORE WIND THAN EARLIER
THOUGHT. 850-700MB WINDS WERE NOW PROGGED AT 35KTS...SO BUMPED
WINDS UP TUESDAY NIGHT. STILL NOT EXPECTING WINDS MUCH OVER 40 MPH
WITH THE EXCEPTION OUT WEST. THE GRADIENT LOOKS GOOD FOR STRONGER
WINDS IN THE HARLOWTON TO BIG TIMBER CORRIDOR. 700MB WINDS WERE
STILL NOT PROJECTED THAT HIGH...ONLY 35KTS...SO WILL NOT ISSUE ANY
HIGHLIGHTS. BUMPED WINDS UP TO REFLECT SOME GUSTS TO 45MPH.
HUMIDIITIES WILL FALL TO RIGHT AROUND 20 PERCENT IN A PREFRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SOME HUMIDITIES MIGHT ACTUALLY
SLIDE JUST BELOW 20 PERCENT OVER CENTRAL ZONES. HUMIDITIES SHOULD
RECOVER WELL ENOUGH BY THE TIME THE STRONGER WINDS MOVE IN TO KEEP
A CHECK ON FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON
THIS HOWEVER.
THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE DAKOTAS WEDNESDAY FOR A DECENT COOL
DOWN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER ON AVERAGE BUT
STILL MAX OUT ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES ON WEDNESDAY. THE AREA WILL
BE VOID OF SHOWER CHANCES AS THE FORCING WILL SHIFT INTO THE
DAKOTAS. WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE BREEZY OVER FAR EASTERN MONTANA IN
THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY...BUT A SLACKENING GRADIENT SHOULD CAUSE
WINDS TO DECREASE AS THE DAY WEARS ON. A LEE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND TIGHTEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL DRIVE
INCREASING WINDS AT LIVINGSTON AND NYE...SO BUMPED WINDS UP. TWH
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...
ALTHOUGH SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES EXIST...OVERALL...THE EXTENDED
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE
SCALE FEATURES FOR THE END OF THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. AN
UPPER LOW AND TROUGH WILL MOVE ONTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST
THURSDAY PROVIDING A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA. BY FRIDAY...THE UPPER LOW DIGS A BIT SOUTHWARD ALLOWING FOR
THE FLOW TO BUCKLE AND RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
ROCKIES FOR THE DAY FRIDAY. THIS RIDGE COMBINED WITH JET AND UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY THAT WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST BOTH DAYS
WILL RESULT IN KEEPING OUR AREA DRY ALONG WITH CONTINUED ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
THE UPPER LOW AND TROUGH MOVE INLAND SATURDAY AND ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL SWEEP A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
THE SYSTEM IS PACIFIC IN NATURE SO WINDS WILL JUST BECOME MORE
WESTERLY DURING THE DAY SUNDAY BUT IT WILL STILL BE A GUSTY DAY.
GUSTY DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL HELP TO INHIBIT PRECIP BUT ENOUGH
DYNAMICS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TO WARRANT A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AFTER ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO AROUND
NORMAL SUNDAY TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR MONDAY. HOOLEY
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL FLIGHT TERMINALS TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RICHMOND
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 047/076 045/065 043/071 048/069 043/071 044/060 037/055
02/W 31/B 00/U 00/B 00/U 12/W 21/B
LVM 041/069 040/061 040/068 044/067 042/069 042/058 034/053
03/W 50/N 00/N 00/B 11/U 22/W 21/B
HDN 042/079 043/067 038/071 043/071 039/072 039/062 035/057
00/U 32/W 00/U 00/B 00/U 12/W 21/B
MLS 041/078 045/065 038/071 044/069 041/069 041/062 035/054
00/U 32/W 00/U 00/B 00/U 11/B 21/B
4BQ 042/081 044/065 037/070 042/071 040/071 042/062 035/054
00/U 22/W 00/U 00/B 00/U 01/B 21/B
BHK 038/078 044/062 036/068 041/067 038/066 039/059 033/049
00/U 12/W 00/U 00/U 00/U 11/B 22/W
SHR 038/080 040/065 034/072 039/073 037/073 038/063 032/055
00/B 22/W 00/U 00/B 00/U 02/W 21/B
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
230 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...BRINGING AN END TO THE SHOWERS. SKIES WILL CLEAR
OVERNIGHT BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FROST OVERNIGHT IN SOME LOCATIONS. A DRY AND COOL
SUNDAY IS EXPECTED...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW NORMAL WITH
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MID-EVENING GOES SATELLITE DATA /11.0-3.9 MICRON DIFFERENCE
CHANNEL/ SHOWS BACK EDGE OF STRATOCUMULUS FIELD RUNNING FROM PEORIA
IL TO KALAMAZOO MI. PUTTING A TIME TREND ON THIS LEADS TO THIS
CLEARING LINE REACHING A MIDDLETOWN TO COLUMBUS LINE AT APPROX 4
AM...WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TIME FOR A LATE TEMP DROP AND FROST
FORMATION NORTH OF THIS LINE. SOUTH OF THIS LINE /WHICH IS THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES OF CURRENT FROST ADVISORY/ IT COULD
REALLY GO EITHER WAY. IF LOW CLOUDS DEPART AFTER 5 AM...DOUBT
THERE IS ENOUGH TIME FOR FROST FORMATION BUT WILL BE CLOSE AS
SUNRISE IS NOT UNTIL CLOSE TO 8 AM. LATEST GUIDANCE DRIVES STRONG
DRYING AT 850MB THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT...HOWEVER A
DEVELOPING VERY STRONG INVERSION AT 900MB LATER IN THE NIGHT MAY
REALLY DELAY/MITIGATE MIXING OUT THE TOP OF A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER AND EFFECTIVELY LINGER CLOUDS. 19.18Z NAM IS VERY MUCH IN
THIS CAMP...AS ARE RECENT RAP RUNS. 19.18Z GFS REALLY BLOWS ALL
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AWAY...AND OVERLAYING MODEL RH FIELDS ATOP THE
SATELLITE DATA SUGGESTS THE NAM TOO BULLISH KEEPING RH AND GFS TOO
AGGRESSIVE. SO SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE IS PROBABLY CLOSER TO
REALITY...WHICH LEADS TO LOWER CONFIDENCE IN MAKING ANY CHANGES TO
TEMPS/CURRENT FROST ADVISORY. THINK BEST CHANCES IN WCNTL
OHIO/ECNTL IND /WHICH MAY FLIRT WITH A HARD FREEZE/ AND RAPIDLY
LOWERING CHANCES TO THE SOUTH/EAST FROM CVG TO ILN TO SOUTH/EAST
OF CMH. WE MAY BE A TIER OF COUNTIES TOO FAR SOUTH WITH ADVISORY
BUT CAN/T NITPICK AT THIS POINT WITH CONFIDENCE ON CLEARING WHERE
IT IS AT. BUT GIVEN THE BACK EDGE CONTINUES TO MOVE STEADILY...AND
SOME HOLES OPENING UP AHEAD OF THE BACK EDGE...FEEL COMFORTABLE
KEEPING ADVRY/TEMPS AS THEY ARE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AMPLE SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY WITH JUST SOME HIGH THIN CLOUDS AHEAD OF
NEXT APPROACHING S/WV FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WITH THE NW
FLOW EARLY BACKING A BIT AND CAA BECOMING MORE NEUTRAL...TEMPS IN
THE LOW TO MID 50S STILL LOOKS GOOD BUT RAISED SLIGHTLY IN THE SW
WHERE SOME LATE DAY WAA MAY BUMP TEMPS INTO THE UPR 50S.
MORE MODERATE TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS AND WARM AIR AHEAD OF THE NEXT S/WV TO DROP DOWN FROM CNTRL
LOWER CANADA THROUGH WESTERN GREAT LAKES. BEST MOISTURE REMAINS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN FCST AREA SO HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES
HERE. HAVE RAISED PRECIP CHANCES SLIGHTLY DURING THE DAY
MONDAY...THEN FAIRLY SLOW DEPARTURE WITH THE INCREASINGLY
AMPLIFIED UPR LEVEL PATTERN LINGERING THE UPR TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED MID/UPR LEVEL FLOW WITH A SHARP RIDGE OVER THE
NATIONS MID SECTION AND A TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING DOWN INTO THE MEAN TROF WILL PROVIDE A
CONTD CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACRS THE EAST.
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL...
WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S NORTH TO THE UPPER 50S SOUTH.
NUMERICAL MODEL SOLNS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING UPPER LOW CUTTING
OFF TO OUR EAST OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AT MID WEEK, WILL END
ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION EARLY WEDNESDAY. IN NORTHERLY FLOW
AROUND THIS UPPER LOW...SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD SOUTH INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. THIS HIGH WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER THRU THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE WED/THUR...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S. SOME
MODERATION TO TAKE PLACE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH HIGHS CLOSER TO
NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTH TO MIDDLE 60S SOUTH.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BACK EDGE OF STRATOCU DECK WILL BE THROUGH DAYTON IN THE PREDAWN
HOURS AND ILN/CMH/LCK TOWARDS DAYBREAK. SLOW PROGRESSION SOUTHWARD
WILL LIKELY NOT LET IT REACH CVG/LUK UNTIL AROUND NOON. FAIR WX CU
WILL BE ON THE DECREASE THROUGH THE FEW HOURS FOLLOWING THE
PASSAGE OF THE BACK EDGE OF THE SOLID CLOUD DECK. NORTHWEST WINDS
AT OR UNDER 10KT WILL TURN WESTERLY FOR THE BETTER PART OF THE DAY
AND THEN SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT. CI WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
OVERNIGHT.
.OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ026-034-035-
042>046-051>056-060>065-070>072-077-080.
KY...NONE.
IN...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ050-058-059-
066-073-074.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JDR
NEAR TERM...BINAU
SHORT TERM...JDR
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...FRANKS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BROWNSVILLE TX
636 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014
.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...CONVECTION IS WANING AND SHOULD DISSIPATE BETWEEN
01-03Z. AS THE CONVECTION ENDS CUMULUS TO TEMPORARILY DISSIPATE AS
WELL HOWEVER WITH A CONTINUED INFLUX OF GULF OF MOISTURE WITH A
NORTHEAST TO EAST WIND PERIODIC SCT TO POSSIBLE BKN VFR CLOUD
COVER IS EXPECTED BUT COULD LOWER APPROACHING MVFR LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF MVFR CIGS AROUND
SUNRISE TUESDAY WHICH MIGHT BE MENTIONED IN THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE.
THERE REMAINS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR TUESDAY LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS REMAIN EAST NORTHEAST BETWEEN 5 AND 10
KNOTS TONIGHT AND 10 TO 14 KNOTS TUESDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/
SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
BRO RADAR BEGINNING TO LIGHT UP WITH MAINLY SHOWER ACTIVITY
`SHOTGUNNED` ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE
VALLEY ATTM. SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH A LITTLE DIFFLUENCE IN
THE UPPER LEVELS WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND ANOTHER
LOW OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. MORNING SOUNDING WAS MOIST WITH A PWAT
OF 1.84 INCHES AND DECENT MOISTURE UP TO 500 MB. HRRR HAS A GOOD
HANDLE ON THE SITUATION WHICH PROGRESSES MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE BETTER POPS
NORTH OF THE VALLEY TRANSITIONING TO ZAPATA/STARR COUNTIES AFTER
SUNSET.
EXPECTING A REPEAT OF POPS FOR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. CONFINED POPS TO
OUR NORTHERN SECTIONS OF GULF WATERS TOWARDS DAWN THEN MOVE THAT
AREA INLAND IN THE MORNING HOURS. BETTER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE IN THE
THE RANCHLANDS TUESDAY AND HAVE TRIMMED POPS OUT OF THE VALLEY UNTIL
LATER TUESDAY. COVERAGE MAY NOT BE AS GREAT AS TODAY DUE TO DRIER
AIR MOVING INTO THE 850-700MB LAYER. LESS CLOUDS AND BETTER MIXING
OF LL DRY AIR LED ME TO INCREASE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES IN THE VALLEY
TUESDAY WHICH MOS GUIDANCE SUPPORTS AS WELL /3-5 DEGREES OVER GOING
FORECAST/. KEPT HIGHS AS IS NORTH OF THE VALLEY WITH CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS. /55/
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST SHOULD BRING A RETURN TO DRIER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS WE TURN OFF THE ATMOSPHERIC
SPIGOT.
EYES WILL REMAIN FOCUSED ON THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE AS WE HEAD INTO THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS OUR REGION
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH A WEAKENING EASTERLY FLOW HELPING TO KEEP
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HOVERING CLOSE TO THE 2 INCH MARK. WITH A
WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH EMANATING TOWARD THE LOWER TEXAS COAST
FROM THE LOW...I EXPECT ENOUGH FORCING TO BE IN PLACE TO KEEP AT
LEAST AN ISOLATED SMATTERING OF SHOWERS AROUND FOR THE MORNING HOURS.
THE INFLUENCE OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE LOW SHOULD LESSEN AT
MID-WEEK...AS IT STARTS SLIDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF.
WINDS SHOULD BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY AS SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS
ACROSS THE OHIO AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO DRY FROM THE NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
GRADUALLY GET SHOVED SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES.
AS SUCH...THE GREATEST ODDS OF SEEING CONVECTION OVER EASTERN AREAS
SHOULD BE IN THE MORNING HOURS. LOCALES OVER OUR MORE WESTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN AREAS COULD SEE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES
HOLDING ON INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE ODDS OF SEEING STORMS IN MOST
PLACES SHOULD BE LOW...GIVEN WEAKENING AMOUNTS OF SYNOPTIC SCALE
FORCING AND THAT THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE SEEN AT THE
TIME OF DAY WHEN THERE`S A DIURNAL MINIMUM IN INSTABILITY. STILL
THOUGH...IT CANNOT BE DISCOUNTED BY AFTERNOON.
IN ADDITION TO THE RAIN PROBLEM...WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME COASTAL FLOODING AT MID-WEEK. ROUGH SWELLS FROM
THE EAST-NORTHEAST WILL LIKELY COMBINE WITH HIGHER THAN NORMAL
ASTRONMICAL TIDES TO YIELD THE THREAT DURING THE WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY
TIME FRAME. STAY TUNED.
ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD END BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THANKS TO THE
COMBINATION OF A STRENGTHENING RIDGE ALOFT AND (REALLY) DRIER AIR
MOVES SOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE. RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY
ACROSS MID-AMERICA FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE THE PACIFIC COAST.
GIVEN THE EXPECTED STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE BY THIS WEEKEND AND AMPLE
SUNSHINE...FORECAST TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RAISED A FEW DEGREES WITH
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. THERE`S STILL A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THINGS
DURING THE DAY 5 THROUGH 7 TIME PERIOD THOUGH...AS SOIL MOISTURE
FROM ANY RECENT RAINFALL MAY TEMPER HIGHS JUST A BIT. IN ADDITION
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL LIKELY WEAKEN BY SUNDAY OR MONDAY...AS THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NATION`S MIDSECTION.
THANKS TO WPC AND WFO CORPUS CHRISTI FOR COLLABORATION TODAY. /53/
MARINE...
NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
INCREASING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND GRADUALLY BUILDING SEAS OVER THE
FAR OFFSHORE WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE
SCEC CATEGORY TUESDAY NIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD AS WELL. /55/
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED HEADING INTO MID-WEEK THANKS
TO A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE MARINE AREA. SLIGHTLY
DIMINISHING WIND SPEEDS MAY ALLOW ANY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO BE
DROPPED AT SOME POINT DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...BUT SMALL CRAFT
WILL LIKELY NEED TO CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. INCREASED RIDGING OVER THE REGION FOR THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK SHOULD RESULT IN MORE MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. /53/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 74 86 74 84 / 10 20 20 20
BROWNSVILLE 72 87 73 85 / 10 20 20 20
HARLINGEN 70 87 71 85 / 10 20 20 20
MCALLEN 71 88 70 86 / 10 20 20 20
RIO GRANDE CITY 69 86 69 86 / 20 20 20 20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 76 84 77 84 / 10 20 20 20
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV
59/52
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1100 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST INCLUDE...INCREASED RAIN CHANCES WED
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...INCREASED TEMPERATURES FRI-SUN.
THIS IS A NO/LOW WEATHER IMPACT FORECAST. WE ARE GETTING A BIT
BETTER CONSENSUS ON THE RAIN CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. ALSO INVESTIGATED WEEKEND WARM UP AND RIDGE
BUILDING...WITH GOOD SIGNAL NOW FOR A PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FROM FRI-SUN /10F+/.
OBSERVATIONAL DATA...
UPPER AIR DATA SHOWING UNIDIRECTIONAL N-NW FLOW THROUGH THE
TROPOSPHERE WITH UPSTREAM HIGHER LATITUDE RIDGE BUILDING RAPIDLY
EAST. 250 MB HEIGHT RISES OVER 40M/12HR OVER SRN MANITOBA THIS
MORNING..AND ALSO WIDESPREAD OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES AT LOWER
LEVELS. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLDER POOL OF AIR
SUB-INVERSION LEVEL...AND EAST OF THE STRONGEST FRONTAL REGION AT
850 MB /1-5C BAND/. LAPSE RATES ARE PRETTY STEEP SUB-INVERSION
LEVEL THERE...AND HAVE SEEN SOME SHRA IN NRN WI. CLOUDS PRETTY
CELLULAR SW OF I-94...AND SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY WITH SUNSET.
TONIGHT THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST AND SUBSIDENCE
SHOULD REIGN WITH CLOUD MOVING EAST AND DISSIPATING. THERE IS
SOME WEAK SIGNAL IN THE SREF DATA FOR SOME CLOUD FRAGMENTS TO
SURGE WESTWARD AGAIN IN EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW TUESDAY MORNING.
HAVE NOT ADDRESSED THOSE YET IN THE FORECAST DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE...AND THEY SHOULD NOT MAKE FOR A BIG DEAL.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014
CONTINUED THE FORECAST OF RIVER VALLEY FOG WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
SIGNALS OF VERY DRY AIR ALOFT...LIGHT WINDS THROUGH ABOUT 15KFT
AND CLEAR SKIES. THE ONLY ITEM OUTSTANDING TO PREVENT AREAS OR
WIDESPREAD RIVER VALLEY FOG IS A SIGNAL FOR A BIT HIGHER WIND AT
INVERSION LEVEL ACROSS THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS. IF THE VALLEY
DECOUPLES...THIS LIKELY WILL NOT PREVENT THE FOG.
FEELING MORE CONFIDENT WITH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE AGREEING ON A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AT LEAST
EJECTING NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION...PRIOR TO WEAKENING. RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW...THE MOIST PLUME OF OVER 1 INCH PRECIPITABLE
WATER...AND EVEN 50-100 J/KG OF ELEVATED MU CAPE ALL SUGGEST A
NEARLY SATURATED ENVIRONMENT MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...THAT WILL GENERATE PRECIPITATION WITH ONLY WEAK FORCING.
THESE ELEMENTS ARE AGREED ON WITH THE 20.12Z DETERMINISTIC
NAM/GFS/EC/AND CANADIAN RUNS. THE ECMWF MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN VERY
CONSISTENT FOR TWO DAYS NOW WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND THE OTHER
MODELS ARE CATCHING ON.
SO...HAVE INCREASED THE RAIN CHANCES MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WED EVE IN
THE WEST...MOVING EAST THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. THE FORCING IS
QUITE WEAK WITH SOME WEAK WARM ADVECTION AND TROUGH CONVERGENCE...BUT
THINKING IS THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WONT NEED MUCH TO GENERATE SHRA/DZ.
RAIN CHANCES ARE NOW IN THE 50S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT THIS
MAY NEED TO BE HIGHER. MAINLY A LOW RAINFALL AMOUNT EVENT...MAYBE
1/4 INCH.
FRIDAY-MONDAY...
THE MAIN STORY SEEMS TO BE THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. WHILE
THE FRONTAL SURGES ARE NUMEROUS DURING THE PERIOD...FRIDAY AND
SUNDAY LOOK TO OFFER SOME WARM SECTORS ADVECTING INTO THE AREA.
CONSENSUS IN THE ENSEMBLES HAS INCREASED TOO WITH THE MEAN
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWEST LEVELS INCREASING. TODAY AT KLSE IT
WAS 8C AT 925MB AND AT LEAST 65F...ON FRIDAY AND SUNDAY 925MB
WARMS TO A 20.12Z GFS/ECMWF MEAN OF 14C...SO IT SEEMS 70S ARE
WELL WITHIN REACH. THE 20.00Z NAEFS ANOMALIES STILL ARE IN THE 1-2
STANDARDIZED DEVIATION FOR THAT PERIOD IN THE 850MB
TEMPERATURES...BUT AM THINKING THIS WILL INCREASE WITH BETTER
AGREEMENT SEEN IN THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS THIS MORNING. THE SIGNAL
IS STARTING TO RESOLVE ITSELF. SO...INCREASED TEMPERATURES ABOVE
THE MODEL CONSENSUS THOSE DAYS...WITH MOS DEFINITELY TOO LOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014
THE MOSTLY VFR BLANKET OF CLOUDS HAS PERSISTED THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS ACROSS WI...ALTHOUGH RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTING SOME
ERODING STARTING ON THE WESTERN EDGES. AT THE MOMENT...THE BACKEDGE
REMAINS JUST EAST/NORTH OF KLSE. 850-700 MB WINDS VEER TO THE
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT THOUGH...AND THIS COULD BRING DOWN THE CLOUDS
FROM NORTHERN WI. RAP/NAM 850 MB RH FIELDS ERODE/MOVE EAST
OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH LINGER SOME 925 MB RH. GOING TO HOLD THE COURSE
WITH SKC/SCT CONDITIONS FOR KLSE RIGHT NOW...KEEPING THE CLOUD
SHIELD JUST ON THE DOORSTEP. IF IT WOULD MOVE IN...CIGS LOOK VFR
NEAR 4KFT AT THIS TIME.
LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY OVERNIGHT...AND GRADUALLY MORE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY TUE. SOME INCREASE TOWARD 10 KTS AT KRST
BY AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS THE NEXT COUPLE OVERNIGHTS-MORNINGS
BRINGS TO QUESTION IF FOG COULD DEVELOP IN THE RIVER VALLEYS. AT
THIS TIME...CHANCES LOOK SMALL. RAP SOUNDINGS KEEP WINDS STIRRING
JUST ABOVE THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION OVERNIGHT...12+ KTS AT 200 FT.
NOT CONDUCIVE FOR DENSE FOG FORMATION AT KLSE. GFS/NAM SOUNDINGS
SIMILAR FOR TUE NIGHT...KEEPING 10+ KTS OF WINDS JUST OFF THE SFC.
IF A DEEPER LIGHT WIND FIELD WOULD BE REALIZED...THE FG THREAT
INCREASES.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014
RECORDS FOR THE WEEKEND ARE GENERALLY IN THE 75-80F RANGE AT LSE
AND RST. WHILE THE FORECAST IS STILL LOWER THAN THOSE VALUES...WE
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE MIXING DEPTH AND SKY COVER FOR FRIDAY AND
SUNDAY.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BAUMGARDT
LONG TERM....BAUMGARDT
AVIATION.....RIECK
CLIMATE...BAUMGARDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
620 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST INCLUDE...INCREASED RAIN CHANCES WED
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...INCREASED TEMPERATURES FRI-SUN.
THIS IS A NO/LOW WEATHER IMPACT FORECAST. WE ARE GETTING A BIT
BETTER CONSENSUS ON THE RAIN CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. ALSO INVESTIGATED WEEKEND WARM UP AND RIDGE
BUILDING...WITH GOOD SIGNAL NOW FOR A PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FROM FRI-SUN /10F+/.
OBSERVATIONAL DATA...
UPPER AIR DATA SHOWING UNIDIRECTIONAL N-NW FLOW THROUGH THE
TROPOSPHERE WITH UPSTREAM HIGHER LATITUDE RIDGE BUILDING RAPIDLY
EAST. 250 MB HEIGHT RISES OVER 40M/12HR OVER SRN MANITOBA THIS
MORNING..AND ALSO WIDESPREAD OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES AT LOWER
LEVELS. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLDER POOL OF AIR
SUB-INVERSION LEVEL...AND EAST OF THE STRONGEST FRONTAL REGION AT
850 MB /1-5C BAND/. LAPSE RATES ARE PRETTY STEEP SUB-INVERSION
LEVEL THERE...AND HAVE SEEN SOME SHRA IN NRN WI. CLOUDS PRETTY
CELLULAR SW OF I-94...AND SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY WITH SUNSET.
TONIGHT THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST AND SUBSIDENCE
SHOULD REIGN WITH CLOUD MOVING EAST AND DISSIPATING. THERE IS
SOME WEAK SIGNAL IN THE SREF DATA FOR SOME CLOUD FRAGMENTS TO
SURGE WESTWARD AGAIN IN EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW TUESDAY MORNING.
HAVE NOT ADDRESSED THOSE YET IN THE FORECAST DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE...AND THEY SHOULD NOT MAKE FOR A BIG DEAL.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014
CONTINUED THE FORECAST OF RIVER VALLEY FOG WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
SIGNALS OF VERY DRY AIR ALOFT...LIGHT WINDS THROUGH ABOUT 15KFT
AND CLEAR SKIES. THE ONLY ITEM OUTSTANDING TO PREVENT AREAS OR
WIDESPREAD RIVER VALLEY FOG IS A SIGNAL FOR A BIT HIGHER WIND AT
INVERSION LEVEL ACROSS THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS. IF THE VALLEY
DECOUPLES...THIS LIKELY WILL NOT PREVENT THE FOG.
FEELING MORE CONFIDENT WITH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE AGREEING ON A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AT LEAST
EJECTING NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION...PRIOR TO WEAKENING. RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW...THE MOIST PLUME OF OVER 1 INCH PRECIPITABLE
WATER...AND EVEN 50-100 J/KG OF ELEVATED MU CAPE ALL SUGGEST A
NEARLY SATURATED ENVIRONMENT MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...THAT WILL GENERATE PRECIPITATION WITH ONLY WEAK FORCING.
THESE ELEMENTS ARE AGREED ON WITH THE 20.12Z DETERMINISTIC
NAM/GFS/EC/AND CANADIAN RUNS. THE ECMWF MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN VERY
CONSISTENT FOR TWO DAYS NOW WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND THE OTHER
MODELS ARE CATCHING ON.
SO...HAVE INCREASED THE RAIN CHANCES MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WED EVE IN
THE WEST...MOVING EAST THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. THE FORCING IS
QUITE WEAK WITH SOME WEAK WARM ADVECTION AND TROUGH CONVERGENCE...BUT
THINKING IS THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WONT NEED MUCH TO GENERATE SHRA/DZ.
RAIN CHANCES ARE NOW IN THE 50S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT THIS
MAY NEED TO BE HIGHER. MAINLY A LOW RAINFALL AMOUNT EVENT...MAYBE
1/4 INCH.
FRIDAY-MONDAY...
THE MAIN STORY SEEMS TO BE THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. WHILE
THE FRONTAL SURGES ARE NUMEROUS DURING THE PERIOD...FRIDAY AND
SUNDAY LOOK TO OFFER SOME WARM SECTORS ADVECTING INTO THE AREA.
CONSENSUS IN THE ENSEMBLES HAS INCREASED TOO WITH THE MEAN
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWEST LEVELS INCREASING. TODAY AT KLSE IT
WAS 8C AT 925MB AND AT LEAST 65F...ON FRIDAY AND SUNDAY 925MB
WARMS TO A 20.12Z GFS/ECMWF MEAN OF 14C...SO IT SEEMS 70S ARE
WELL WITHIN REACH. THE 20.00Z NAEFS ANOMALIES STILL ARE IN THE 1-2
STANDARDIZED DEVIATION FOR THAT PERIOD IN THE 850MB
TEMPERATURES...BUT AM THINKING THIS WILL INCREASE WITH BETTER
AGREEMENT SEEN IN THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS THIS MORNING. THE SIGNAL
IS STARTING TO RESOLVE ITSELF. SO...INCREASED TEMPERATURES ABOVE
THE MODEL CONSENSUS THOSE DAYS...WITH MOS DEFINITELY TOO LOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014
AREAS OF VFR CLOUDS COVER MUCH OF WI EARLY THIS EVENING...SPARING
THE FAR WESTERN PART OF THE STATE. ELSEWHERE IT WAS CLEAR AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WAS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. EXPECT A LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING AND A GRADUAL SHIFT EAST OF A SFC LOW WILL KEEP
THE CLOUDS FROM MOVING ACROSS THE TAF SITES. THAT SAID...850 MB
WINDS VEER TONIGHT...BECOMING MORE NORTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT. THIS
COULD PUSH THE NORTHWEST REACH OF THE CLOUDS TOWARD KLSE. WILL KEEP
SKC FOR NOW...BUT TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.
WINDS WILL GO LIGHT AFTER SUNDOWN...GRADUALLY BECOMING EASTERLY
OVERNIGHT. THE LIGHT EAST WINDS WILL PERSIST TUE.
HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS THE NEXT COUPLE OVERNIGHTS-MORNINGS
BRINGS TO QUESTION IF FOG COULD DEVELOP IN THE RIVER VALLEYS. AT
THIS TIME...CHANCES LOOK SMALL. RAP SOUNDINGS KEEP WINDS STIRRING
JUST ABOVE THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION TONIGHT...12+ KTS AT 200 FT. NOT
CONDUCIVE FOR DENSE FOG FORMATION AT KLSE. GFS/NAM SOUNDINGS SIMILAR
FOR TUE NIGHT...KEEPING 10+ KTS OF WINDS JUST OFF THE SFC. IF A
DEEPER LIGHT WIND FIELD WOULD BE REALIZED...THE FG THREAT INCREASES.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014
RECORDS FOR THE WEEKEND ARE GENERALLY IN THE 75-80F RANGE AT LSE
AND RST. WHILE THE FORECAST IS STILL LOWER THAN THOSE VALUES...WE
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE MIXING DEPTH AND SKY COVER FOR FRIDAY AND
SUNDAY.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BAUMGARDT
LONG TERM....BAUMGARDT
AVIATION.....RIECK
CLIMATE...BAUMGARDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
310 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING A WARM FRONT RUNNING NORTH-SOUTH THROUGH
CENTRAL MN INTO A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW NEAR KINL. THE FRONT THEN
EXTENDS NORTHWEST TO LAKE WINNIPEG AS A STATIONARY FRONT WITH COLD
AIR EAST. THE SURFACE CYCLONE IS MOST CLOSELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
STRONGEST SHORTWAVE TROUGH SOUTH OF LAKE WINNIPEG WHERE
TROPOPAUSE FOLDS DOWN TO NEARLY 750 MB /PER RAP ANALYSIS/...PRETTY
IMPRESSIVE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS WEAKER TROUGH ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH WISCONSIN AT THIS TIME WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURL IN
NORTH-CENTRAL WI 20Z. THE MAIN WATER VAPOR SIGNAL IS VERY DRY AIR
BEHIND THIS FIRST TROUGH...NOT MAKING IT EASY FOR FOR THE STRONGER
LAKE WINNIPEG TROUGH TO CREATE PRECIPITATION ALONE WITHOUT LOW-
LEVEL HELP. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM IN SRN
CANADA IS EAST OF THE FRONT AND CYCLONE IN VERY LOW CLOUD. THIS
ENTIRE SYSTEM WAS SHIFTING SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES.
WILL BE CLEARING THE SPRINKLES IN THE FORECAST EAST IN THE NEXT
HOURS...AND CLEARING SKIES AS THE WI SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES. AIR
MASS IS VERY DRY IN THIS FORCING /PER KMPX AND KGRB 12Z
RAOBS/...BUT SOME STEEPER LAPSE RATES AROUND 7-7.5C/KM IN MID-
LEVELS IS CAUSING 10KFT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. ONLY HIT AND MISS
SPRINKLES HITTING THE GROUND.
WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT IN THIS EVENING AND CYCLONE
WILL PASS THROUGH THRU GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. QG FORCING ALOFT
INCREASES OVERNIGHT WITH THE LAKE WINNIPEG SHORTWAVE TROUGH...BUT
THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL DEEPER LIFT REMAINS CLOSER TO THE SURFACE
CYCLONE TRACK - MORE FOR THE NRN GREAT LAKES. AIR MASS IN PLACE
WITH THE FORCING COMING OVER THE FORECAST AREA SUGGESTS NO
WEATHER.
COLD AIR PUSH DIVES INTO WISCONSIN AND GREAT LAKES POST-LOW ON
MONDAY..BRINGING LOWER OVERCAST WITH IT. THE FRONT WILL LIE UP
THROUGH WESTERN WISCONSIN WITH LOWER CLOUDS AND SOME VERY LOW CAPE
EAST OF THE FRONT ACROSS WI. THERE MAY BE SOME SPRINKLES AROUND
NRN-ERN WI MONDAY...HAVE NOT ADD THOSE TO THE FORECAST HOWEVER.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014
MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...RIDGE BUILDING WILL DOMINATE THIS PERIOD
WITH CLEARING SKIES MONDAY NIGHT. SOME RIVER VALLEY FOG IS
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT SOME SUGGESTION OF WINDS AT THE
TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER COULD BE LIMITING. WILL ADD PATCHY RIVER
VALLEY FOG TO FORECAST FOR NOW.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
PREDICTABILITY TAKES A NOTICEABLE DROP AFTER WEDNESDAY AS SEEN IN
THE SPREAD OF DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE. IN THE LONG WAVE
PATTERN...COMPLEX READJUSTMENT IS OCCURRING IN THIS PERIOD WITH A
A DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND CENTRAL RIDGING.
WILL CONTINUE TO USE A BLENDED DETERMINISTIC FORECAST FOR RAIN
CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS IT APPEARS THE
CONSENSUS CONTINUES FOR A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE AND
SOME WEAK FORCING. SMALL RAIN CHANCES IN THE 30 PERCENT RANGE FOR
NOW ON WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY ARE CONTINUED UNTIL MORE CONFIDENCE
CAN BE BUILT IN THE SIGNAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014
A WARM FRONT WAS PUSHING EAST THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. PRETTY GOOD AMOUNT OF MID-LEVEL/ALTOSTRATUS CLOUDINESS
ACROSS THE AREA WITH BASES IN THE 12-15KFT RANGE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WARM AIR ADVECTION. THIS CLOUD IS EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST OF THE
KRST/KLSE TAF SITES BY 23Z WITH SKIES BECOMING CLEAR. BREEZY
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE WARM FRONT EXPECTED TO TAPER WITH
SUNSET/LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...SHIFTING THE WINDS
TO THE NORTHWEST. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND 10 KT
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MODELS THEN INDICATING MAINLY VFR
STRATOCUMULUS ROTATING SOUTHWARD INTO THE KRST/KLSE TAF SITES BY
12Z...BECOMING BROKEN AT KLSE BY 15Z.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BAUMGARDT
LONG TERM...BAUMGARDT
AVIATION...BOYNE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
312 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014
LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHERN
MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN CANADA. LATEST FOG PRODUCT SATELLITE
INDICATE MID LEVEL CLOUDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PRODUCING SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA...EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHWEST MINNESOTA PER MOSAIC RADAR.
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON...THEN CLOUDS TONIGHT.
THE 19.00Z GFS/NAM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN PUSHING AND DEEPENING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY
INTO TONIGHT. MINOR DIFFERENCES ARE INDICATED BETWEEN THE 19.00Z
GFS/NAM WITH THE GFS SLIGHTLY FASTER IN MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAN
THE NAM. BOTH THE 19.00Z MODELS ARE SHOWING DECENT PV ADVECTION AND
QG FORCING ABOVE 700MB IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE BIGGEST CONCERN WILL BE
SATURATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE COLUMN...AS THE LATEST 19.00Z UPPER AIR
SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST INDICATES VERY DRY MID LEVEL
AIRMASS OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL INHIBIT ANY PRECIPITATION REACHING
THE GROUND OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT. WITH
THE BETTER LIFT AND DEEPER MOISTURE OVER NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
SPRINKLES TO OCCUR AND HAVE INTRODUCE A SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCE
OVER TAYLOR COUNTY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE 19.00Z GFS/NAM TIME
CROSS SECTIONS SHOW SUBSIDENCE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND MOISTURE
QUICKLY EXITING THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 03Z MONDAY. CURRENT
FORECAST HAS GOOD HANDLE ON SKY TRENDS TONIGHT ACROSS FORECAST
AREA...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES...THE 19.00Z GFS/NAM SHOW MOISTURE AT 850MB
AND BELOW ADVECTING INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN AFTER 12Z
MONDAY. THIS MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY AND PRODUCE STRATO/CUMULUS DECK
OF CLOUDS OVER THIS AREA. THE 19.00Z GFS/NAM ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
IN BUILDING SURFACE RIDGE AND HEIGHT RISES OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
AND NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH SUBSIDENCE AND
DRIER AIRMASS ADVECTING INTO THE FORECAST AREA...THIS SHOULD ALLOW
CLOUDS TO ERODE OVER THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND
BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY.
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WEDNESDAY INTO SATURDAY ARE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THEN TEMPERATURES FOR REST
OF THE PERIOD. THE 19.00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
BUILDING UPPER RIDGE INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY AND
ADVECTING WARMER AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA...WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES WARMING TO PLUS 10 TO PLUS 13 DEGREES CELSIUS BY 00Z
THURSDAY. THEN...SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES OCCUR BETWEEN THE 19.00Z
MODELS ON HOW FAST TO BREAK DOWN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND
PLACEMENT/MOVEMENT OF UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH MEANDERING OVER THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. ALSO...MAJOR DIFFERENCES OCCUR BETWEEN THE MODELS WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL
UNITED STATES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WHERE...THE 19.00Z GFS BY 12Z
FRIDAY HAS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...THE 19.00Z
ECMWF HAS SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
DEVELOPS WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND THE 19.00Z
GEM DEVELOPS WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN
TIER STATES. DUE TO ALL OF THESE INCONSISTENCIES...THIS WILL HAVE
IMPACTS ON SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AND TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
IS LOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014
LIGHT SFC/NEAR SFC WIND FIELD WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD SUGGESTS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR RIVER VALLEY FOG. T/TD SPREAD WAS 6 F AT
03Z...GOOD INDICATOR FOR DENSE FOG. HOWEVER...THERE ARE A COUPLE
DRAWBACKS. FIRST IS THE HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING FOR THE WINDS RIGHT ABOVE THE NOCTURNAL
INVERSION TO INCREASE. RAP BUFKIT SOUNDING INCREASING TO 14KTS AT
200 FT BY 07Z. THE SECOND IS SCT-BKN HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING IN
FROM THE WEST...AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THINK SOME
THIN BR/STRATUS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE RIVER...BUT MAY NOT SPREAD
OUTSIDE OF ITS BANKS. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP KLSE FOG FREE FOR
NOW...BUT IT WILL NEED MONITORING.
HIGH/MID LEVEL CIGS FOR A PORTION OF THE DAY SUNDAY...WITH
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS BY MID MORNING. EXPECT A FEW HIGHER
GUSTS...WITH SUSTAINED AROUND 15KTS OR SO. WINDS WILL BECOME
WESTERLY SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE/S SURFACE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. NOT EXPECTING ANY PCPN.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM...DTJ
AVIATION.....RIECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1229 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014
.DISCUSSION...
249 PM CDT
TONIGHT...
UPPER LEVEL WAVE CONTINUES TO ROTATE OVER NORTHEAST ONTARIO...WITH A
A COUPLE WEAK LOBES OF VORTICITY ROTATING AROUND THE BACK EDGE OF
THIS SYSTEM...PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. VISIBLE
IMAGERY SHOWS CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER ACROSS MICHIGAN...STRETCHING
WEST ACROSS THE LAKE AND BEGINNING TO SLIDE INTO FAR NORTHEAST IL.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS WAVE AS IT
PUSHES SOUTHEAST ACROSS WISCONSIN AND PERHAPS INTO FAR NORTHEAST IL
LATE THIS EVE...BEFORE SHIFTING EAST INTO FAR NORTHWEST IN BY
DAYBREAK TUE. OTHERWISE EXPECT CLOUDS TO THICKEN THIS EVE ACROSS THE
CWFA...PERHAPS LESS CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE FAR WEST/SOUTHWEST
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE CLOUD COVER TONIGHT...THIS
SHOULD KEEP TEMPS GENERALLY AROUND 40 TO THE LOW 40S TONIGHT.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
500MB TROUGH AXIS WILL BEGIN TO PUSH EAST...WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGE BEGINNING TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THIS WILL BRING A BROAD SFC RIDGE TO THE AREA STRETCHING FROM
CENTRAL CANADA SOUTH TO THE WESTERN GULF. GUIDANCE THEN CONTINUES TO
MAINTAIN THIS FEATURE THROUGH THUR MORNING...HOWEVER THERE IS A WEAK
WAVE SLIDING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WED NGT THAT IS PROGGED
TO LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE CWFA THUR AFTN/EVE. THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING
SOME LIGHT PRECIP TO THE AREA...BUT AT THIS TIME HAVE ONLY GONE WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS GIVEN THE MOISTURE AVAILABILITY APPEARS TO BE
MINIMAL. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPR 50S TO LOW 60S...WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO FEATURE A TROUGH PERSISTING ALONG THE FAR
SOUTHWEST CONUS...ALLOWING RIDGING TO DOMINATE THE CENTRAL CONUS
LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THE DRY
PATTERN FOR THE REGION. IN ADDITION IT APPEARS TEMPS WILL BE ABLE TO
STEADILY MODERATE...PERHAPS REACHING THE UPR 60S TO ARND 70.
ENSEMBLES DO SUGGEST THAT TOWARDS THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND THE
RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT EAST...WITH A TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE
CENTRAL CONUS AND PERHAPS BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER BACK INTO THE
REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BEACHLER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS 10-14 KTS AND GUSTY MID MORNING THRU LATE
AFTERNOON.
* SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHRA MID MORNING THRU MID AFTERNOON.
* POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS MID MORNING THRU MID AFTERNOON. CMS
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES AND
NORTHERN IL LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS
AROUND/JUST UNDER 10KTS BEFORE SUNRISE WILL TURN MORE TO THE
NORTHEAST MID/LATE MORNING AND INCREASE IN SPEED TO 10-14KTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS IN THE UPPER TEEN RANGE LIKELY. SPEEDS/GUSTS SHOULD
QUICKLY DIMINISH BY EARLY EVENING AS THE HIGH CONTINUES BUILDING
SOUTHEAST.
COLDER AIR SPREADING SOUTH WILL AID LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS MORNING WHICH WILL AFFECT NORTHWEST INDIANA
AND GYY...BUT AS WINDS TURN NORTHEAST...MAY MOVE WEST TOWARD ORD
AND MDW. CONFIDENCE REGARDING HOW WIDESPREAD THE SHOWERS BECOME IS
FAIRLY LOW...AND THUS JUST NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH ON COVERAGE TO
INCLUDE AT ORD OR MDW. TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED THRU THE
MORNING.
VFR CIGS 4-5KFT EXTEND WELL NORTH INTO WI WITH MVFR OVER THE UPPER
PENINSULA AND FAR NORTHEAST WI. AS THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES...IT
WILL LIKELY PUSH CIGS INTO HIGH MVFR...BUT CONFIDENCE ALSO REMAINS
LOW FOR DURATION OF MVFR CIGS. CMS
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* HIGH FOR WIND SPEEDS/GUSTS/DIRECTIONS THRU THE PERIOD.
* LOW FOR SHRA MID MORNING THRU MID AFTERNOON.
* MEDIUM FOR MVFR CIGS...LOW FOR TIMING/DURATION. CMS
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
* WEDNESDAY...DRY/VFR. EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS.
* THURSDAY...DRY/VFR. SOUTH WINDS.
* FRIDAY...DRY/VFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS.
* SATURDAY...DRY/VFR. WEST WINDS.
* SUNDAY...DRY/VFR. SOUTH WINDS.
MDB
&&
.MARINE...
250 PM...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE REGION CENTERED
OVER NORTHERN LAKE HURON LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY DRIFT EAST OVERNIGHT. THIS LOW WILL THEN REACH LAKE ONTARIO
AROUND DAYBREAK TUE. THE BACK EDGE OF THIS LOW CONTINUES TO
FEATURE A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT...WHICH HAS PRODUCED GUSTY
WINDS JUST BEGINNING TO SLIDE OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
LAKE. THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY SLIDE SOUTH THIS
EVENING...AND EXPECT NORTH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
ONTARIO WILL BEGIN TO BUILD SOUTH OVERNIGHT...THEN STRETCH FROM
ONTARIO SOUTH TO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY TUE NGT. THIS WILL
BRING MUCH LIGHTER WINDS TO THE LAKE BY WED.
BEACHLER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1138 PM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 900 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014
A cold front will continue to depart to the southeast of Illinois,
as high pressure begins to build into IL from the west. However, a
broad area of cloud cover upstream in eastern Wisconsin and NE
Illinois will continue to stream to the SE and affect our forecast
area mainly northeast of a line from Peoria to Paris. The
additional cloud cover could keep low temps slightly warmer in the
NE areas. Western areas will have more favorable radiational
cooling conditions under clear skies and light winds in the face
of advancing high pressure. That should allow low temps to dip
toward 40 degrees in a few locations west and north of Lincoln.
Clouds should clear out of eastern areas Tuesday morning, for a
mostly sunny day and highs in the upper 50s to low 60s.
Only minor adjustments were needed to low temps and sky
conditions, so no formal product updates will be needed this evening.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014
Weak low pressure over the Great Lakes this afternoon with a weak
boundary trailing out behind it through Central and Southeastern
Illinois. Forecast for the overnight rather quiet with
northwesterly flow continuing, though the winds may be variable at
times, becoming light after sunset. Dry air filtering into the CWA
as the overnight cools should keep the RH just sub saturation. This
in concert with winds at or above 5kt or so...fog issues are not
expected. However, another wave making its way into the larger
scale trof from nrn MN is keeping a lobe of lower clouds a bit
further out to the west. This particular area is expected to dive
southeast in the overnight hours...while the rest of the system
pulls out to the east on the synoptic scale. The NAM is keeping the
llvls far more significant and brushing ILX northeast with the edge
of the more substantial cloud cover. Remaining models not really
holding onto as much. Sat imagery also shows a slow erosion of the
western edge of the clouds...as well as the HRRR supporting the
clouds staying to the north and northeast. It may be close, but
leaving the overnight mostly clear and lows dipping into the low to
mid 40s.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014
As the 500 mb wave cuts off over the eastern Great Lakes tomorrow,
the northeast CWA will be on the southwest fringe of better
moist/cyclonic flow, and will be close to strato-cu deck. Most
high-res models keep thicker cloud cover to our east and will
continue to trend forecast that way. Regardless, highs will be
several degrees below normal, ranging from the mid 50s northeast to
low 60 in the south/southwest.
Wednesday and Thursday...Surface and and upper level ridging shift across
the Midwest ahead of the next upper level weakness moving into the
northern Plains. This will provide clear/dry and seasonably cool
weather. As the next system shifts into the upper Midwest, showers
should overspread Iowa and Missouri early Thursday. However as the
dynamics with this feature shift east of the Mississippi River it
will encounter increasingly dry air and surface/upper ridging. As a
result most of the shower activity is expected to decay during the
afternoon/evening as it shifts through the northern half of the
CWA. Slight chance pops will cover this possibility.
Friday through Monday...Medium range guidance/ensembles show good
agreement that a pronounced warming trend will affect the region.
This will result from troughs affecting the west and east coasts,
allowing upper ridging to build across the central U.S., and drawing
up a thermal ridge from the southern Plains, pushing 850 mb temps to
+12-16 C this weekend. Friday will see some moderation with
readings returning near to slightly above normal. In a rarity for
early fall, highs on Saturday and Sunday are progged to be 10-15
degrees above normal without strong winds aiding in low level warm
advection, due to high pressure in the vicinity. If the GFS is
correct, southerly flow will increase later Sunday in tightening
gradient ahead of the next low pressure complex in the Plains. As
this system shifts east it will bring the next chance of rain to the
region for early next week. Considerable uncertainty exists at
that range, with the 12z ECMWF depicting a much weaker system.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014
VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. The only
clouds of note will be VFR clouds at 6K FT streaming across NE
Illinois. Based on forecast soundings and satellite trends, it
appears those clouds will likely affect our area northeast of a
line from Peoria to Mattoon, including BMI and CMI. A BKN deck
may develop from time to time near BMI/CMI during the first 6-8
hours of the TAF period. Those clouds may linger as long as late
Tuesday afternoon just east of Champaign, but will not affect
aviation flight categories at all.
High pressure advancing into IL behind a cold front has already
produced light and variable winds, with a general direction from
the north. After sunrise tomorrow, wind direction should become
NNE around 8-10kt. After sunset, winds will become easterly and
diminish to 6kt or less.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Shimon
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...25
AVIATION...Shimon
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
422 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014
AN UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST KEEPING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
SMALL SHOWER CHANCES AROUND TODAY BUT THEN ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD IN. ANOTHER UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
BRINGING SMALL SHOWER CHANCES BEFORE MORE STOUT UPPER RIDGING BUILDS
IN THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY BELOW NORMAL UNTIL FRIDAY
AND THEN WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL FOR A FEW DAYS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014
A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS MORNING ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE UPPER LOW AND COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND
EAST. HIGH UNCERTAINTY AND SMALL COVERAGE IF ANY SO KEPT TO A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING WITH PLACEMENT BASED ON THE HRRR
AND RUC OUTPUT. EXPECT SKIES TO BE MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR MOST OF THE DAY
WITH COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT ALLOWING QUICK DEVELOPMENT OF STRATOCU
WITH DAYTIME HEATING. FOR TEMPERATURES LEANED TOWARD COOLER MET
NUMBERS WITH EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014
BRIEF UPPER RIDGING WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND CONTINUED COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LOWS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL GET INTO
THE MID 30S IN PLACES AND WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE COULD SEE SOME FROST AROUND THE AREA. FOR NOW
PUT PATCHY FROST ANYWHERE LOWS WOULD GET BELOW 38 AND WILL NEED TO
MONITOR FOR ADVISORY POTENTIAL WITH UPCOMING FORECASTS.
ON THURSDAY NIGHT A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THAT WILL
BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AS WELL AS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A
LIGHT SHOWER ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 204 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014
DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THIS PERIOD AS ECMWF AND THE GFS BOTH
DEPICT A QUICK MOVING SHORT WAVE EXITING THE AREA EARLY ON FRIDAY
MORNING. A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BEFORE SLOWLY PROGRESSING EASTWARD
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE WILL ACCOMPANY THE RIDGE
ALOFT AND KEEP GENERALLY NORTHWEST TO WEST FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN DRY WEATHER
FOR CENTRAL INDIANA WITH TEMPERATURE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMALS.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 210900Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 422 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
ONGOING COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THAT IS
PUSHING SOUTHEAST OF CENTRAL INDIANA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SOME
LAKE EFFECT SC THAT GIVEN THE CURRENT TRAJECTORY SHOULD SWEEP BY THE
LAF AND IND TAF SITES OVERNIGHT BUT THIS IS ONLY RESULTING IN VFR
CEILINGS AROUND 5000-6000 FT.
BY TUESDAY MORNING MORE DRY AIR IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN CENTRAL
INDIANA AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CONVECTIVE FLAT TOPPED CU
DEVELOPMENT WITH A 825MB INVERSION IN PLACE. AFTER DIURNAL HEATING
IS LOST ON TOWARD 00Z WED...SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR AS VFR
CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JP/CP
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
353 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014
.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014
AN UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST KEEPING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
SMALL SHOWER CHANCES AROUND TODAY BUT THEN ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD IN. ANOTHER UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
BRINGING SMALL SHOWER CHANCES BEFORE MORE STOUT UPPER RIDGING BUILDS
IN THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY BELOW NORMAL UNTIL FRIDAY
AND THEN WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL FOR A FEW DAYS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014
A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS MORNING ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE UPPER LOW AND COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND
EAST. HIGH UNCERTAINTY AND SMALL COVERAGE IF ANY SO KEPT TO A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING WITH PLACEMENT BASED ON THE HRRR
AND RUC OUTPUT. EXPECT SKIES TO BE MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR MOST OF THE DAY
WITH COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT ALLOWING QUICK DEVELOPMENT OF STRATOCU
WITH DAYTIME HEATING. FOR TEMPERATURES LEANED TOWARD COOLER MET
NUMBERS WITH EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014
BRIEF UPPER RIDGING WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND CONTINUED COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LOWS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL GET INTO
THE MID 30S IN PLACES AND WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE COULD SEE SOME FROST AROUND THE AREA. FOR NOW
PUT PATCHY FROST ANYWHERE LOWS WOULD GET BELOW 38 AND WILL NEED TO
MONITOR FOR ADVISORY POTENTIAL WITH UPCOMING FORECASTS.
ON THURSDAY NIGHT A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THAT WILL
BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AS WELL AS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A
LIGHT SHOWER ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 204 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014
DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THIS PERIOD AS ECMWF AND THE GFS BOTH
DEPICT A QUICK MOVING SHORT WAVE EXITING THE AREA EARLY ON FRIDAY
MORNING. A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BEFORE SLOWLY PROGRESSING EASTWARD
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE WILL ACCOMPANY THE RIDGE
ALOFT AND KEEP GENERALLY NORTHWEST TO WEST FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN DRY WEATHER
FOR CENTRAL INDIANA WITH TEMPERATURE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMALS.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 210600Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1243 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014
BRIEF MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT LAF AND IND
OVERNIGHT...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
ONGOING COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THAT IS
PUSHING SOUTHEAST OF CENTRAL INDIANA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SOME
LAKE EFFECT SC THAT GIVEN THE CURRENT TRAJECTORY SHOULD SWEEP BY
THE LAF AND IND TAF SITES OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS.
BY TUESDAY MORNING MORE DRY AIR IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN CENTRAL
INDIANA AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CONVECTIVE FLAT TOPPED CU
DEVELOPMENT WITH A 825MB INVERSION IN PLACE. AFTER DIURNAL HEATING
IS LOST ON TOWARD 00Z WED...SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR AS VFR
CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JP
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1218 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014
...UPDATED THE AVIATION FORECAST...
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014
A RATHER ANOMALOUSLY HIGH UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WAS CENTERED
DIRECTLY OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS TODAY, WITH AFTERNOON RAP ANALYSIS
SHOWING A 583 DAM 500MB CENTER NEAR DODGE CITY. THIS RESULTED IN
LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. CLEAR SKIES
PREVAILED AFTER THE MORNING FOG AMIDST THE SUBSIDENCE. A WEAK
SURFACE FRONT PUSHED SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY, WHICH WAS STALLING
OUT AND DISSOLVING FROM THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA. THERE WAS A CORRIDOR OF 53-59F SURFACE DEWPOINTS EXTENDING
FROM THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. AS WINDS BECOME
EAST AND EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY TONIGHT, THIS MOISTURE WILL PULL WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD INTO FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND THE COLORADO BORDER. WE
EXPECT FOG AND PERHAPS DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP AGAIN LATE TONIGHT,
PRIMARILY 09Z AND LATER TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
FALL TO LOWS IN THE MID 40S AS A RULE ALONG/NORTH OF THE ARKANSAS
RIVER. CLOSER TO THE OKLAHOMA BORDER, LOWS SHOULD NOT FALL BELOW
LOWER 50S GIVEN THE HIGHER SURFACE MOISTURE CONTENT.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH ON TUESDAY IN
RESPONSE TO DEEPENING PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AS ANOTHER
PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. ALONG WITH THE
SOUTH WINDS, A BAND OF STRATUS WILL DEVELOP UP TO AROUND 2000 FEET
AGL, WHICH WILL EXPAND NORTHWARD DURING THE EARLY TO MID MORNING
HOURS. EVENTUALLY, THE STRATUS WILL SCATTER OUT AS IT SHIFTS TO THE
NORTH, BUT AREAS UP ALONG I-70 MAY SEE LOW CLOUDS THROUGH 19 OR 20Z,
WHICH WOULD CERTAINLY MITIGATE THE WARM-UP. HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE
LOWERED JUST A LITTLE BIT BECAUSE OF THIS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014
MAIN SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POP GRADIENT FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BROUGHT
THE GRADIENT FURTHER EAST WITH LESSER AMOUNTS ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS.
MESOSCALE MODELS ARE STARTING TO AGREE WITH GLOBAL MODELS THAT THERE
WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT, WHICH IS NOT FAVORABLE
FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS. THE BEST FRONTOGENESIS
WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS INTO NEBRASKA. HAVE THE HIGHEST
POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES. AGAIN, TO THE SOUTHWEST, THINK CHANCE
OF MORE SIGNIFICANT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS DWINDLING. SEVERE WEATHER
IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO MARGINAL MUCAPE AND PARTICULARLY BULK SHEAR.
BEYOND WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY HO-HUM AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL FAVOR
TEMPERATURES 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. WE MAY SEE A MODERATE STRENGTH
FRONT IN ABOUT A WEEK FROM NOW WITH ASSOCIATED COOLER TEMPERATURES.
OTHERWISE WARMTH AND A PRECIPITATION-FREE FORECAST WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE LONG TERM DOMAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014
YOU CAN EXPECT VFR CONDITION THROUGH ABOUT 10Z THIS MORNING. THEN,
A SWATCH OF MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO WESTERN KANSAS AND DENSE FOG
IS LIKELY AT KGCK AND KDDC. THE DENSE FOG, WTIH VSBYS DOWN 1/4SM
OR LOWER AND CIGS OVC002, WILL PERSIST FROM 10Z THROUGH 16Z. AFTER
THAT, EXPECT SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 13KT TO 16KTS, AND SCATTERED
CLOUDS AROUND 030.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 56 76 55 75 / 10 50 50 10
GCK 56 76 51 76 / 10 40 40 10
EHA 54 73 51 76 / 10 20 20 10
LBL 55 76 53 76 / 10 30 30 10
HYS 57 76 54 74 / 10 60 70 10
P28 57 77 57 77 / 10 60 60 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...SUGDEN
AVIATION...BURKE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
157 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...LOCATING
OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST FOR MUCH OF THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED WELL OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING
ALLOWING FOR A RELAXING PRES GRAD ALONG THE COAST AND INLAND WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS 10 KT OR LESS. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST TONIGHT...WITH A SFC COLD FRONT
REACHING THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS AROUND 12Z TUE.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH HAS BEEN
PROVIDING WEAK LIFT SUPPORTING A THIN BAND OF ISOLD SHOWERS ON
RADAR OVER THE WESTERN CWA...HOWEVER DUE TO THE DRY AIR IN PLACE
IN THE LOWER LEVELS MOST OF THE RADAR ARE RESULTING IN VIRGA. BUFR
SOUNDINGS SHOW OVERALL DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE TONIGHT (PW`S AOB
0.75")...SO IT WILL BE HARD TO GET MUCH OF PCPN TO REACH THE
GROUND. THE HRRR TIES TO DEVELOP A THIN BAND OF SHOWERS EAST OF
I-95 AROUND 06Z...BUT THIS APPEARS TO BE OVERDONE. THAT SAID
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW BRIEF SPRINKLES OVERNIGHT. OVERALL DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU TONIGHT WITH SOME INCREASING CLOUD
COVER. THE CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT SW FLOW COULD KEEP SOME AREAS
FROM REACHING FORECAST LOWS KEEPING CONDITIONS MILDER. LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER WEST TO MID 50S AT THE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FLOW AMPLIFIES DURING THE SHORT TERM AS A BLOCKING PATTERN DEVELOPS
OVER ERN CANADA. ADDITIONAL ENERGY DIVES SOUTH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES/OH VALLEY TUES THANKS TO A ~100 KT JET STREAK DIVING SWD
FROM CANADA. AS A RESULT...UPPER LOW PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE NE STATES LATE TUESDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL
PROGRESS SLOWLY EWD TUES NIGHT INTO WED...LOCATING OFF THE
DELMARVA COAST LATE WED. WITH THE UPR LOW PIVOTING ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA TUE/TUE NIGHT...WILL SEE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
DEVELOP ESPECIALLY NORTH/NE WHERE BEST UPWARD MOTION IS
ANTICIPATED. HAVE CHANCE (POPS 25-40%) ALONG AND NE OF A LINE FROM
LKU-OFP-MFV ON TUE...THEN BEST CHANCE (30-50%) MAINLY ALONG THE
VA COAST AND ONTO THE EASTERN SHORE TUE NIGHT. ELSEWHERE...WILL
CARRY NO HIGHER THEN 20% POPS. HIGHS TUE IN THE UPPER 60S NW TO
MID 70S SE. LOWS TUE NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. MOSTLY
CLOUDY NORTH TO PARTLY CLOUDY SOUTH DURING THIE TIME.
DEEP UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST AND OFFSHORE WED.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FAIRLY DRY ALOFT OVER INLAND SECTIONS AS THE
TROUGH/SFC REFLECTION SWING OFFSHORE. WILL THEREFORE KEEP CHC POPS
LIMITED TO AREAS ALONG AND NE OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR WED...WITH
EMPHASIS ON THE NORTHERN NECK AND EASTERN SHORE (30-50% POPS).
COULD END UP BEING DRY OVER FAR SW ZONES. COOLER WED WITH HIGHS
ONLY 60-65.
THE CLOSED LOW MOVES FARTHER NE WED NIGHT INTO THU...LOCATING OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY 00Z FRIDAY. ANY LEFTOVER SHOWER CHANCES
BY THEN WILL BE LIMITED TO THE EASTERN SHORE (20%). DECREASING
CLOUDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS INTERIOR VA. LOWS WED NIGHT IN THE
LOW 40S TO LOW 50S. COOL AGAIN THU WITH HIGHS 60-65.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TO THE NE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS
UPPER RIDGING EXPANDS EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL US. A WEAK TROUGH
CLIPS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY MOVES OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE ERN US EARLY
NEXT WEEK. OVERALL...DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE
MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE MID 60S
TO AROUND 70 FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND TREND UPWARD INTO THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S SUNDAY...AND POTENTIALLY 70-75 BY MONDAY. LOWS SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 40S NW...TO THE LOW/MID 50S FOR SE COASTAL
LOCATIONS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY INTO THIS EVENG OVR THE TAF
SITES...WITH PERIODS OF MID LVL CLOUDINESS...AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
MOVES ACRS THE AREA. LATER TNGT THRU THU...LO PRES WILL INTENSIFY
OFF THE NEW JERSEY AND NEW ENGLAND CSTS. THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR
SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS...ESPLY OVR NRN AND ERN PORTIONS LATE TNGT
INTO WED NGT. MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER INTO EARLY THU AT SBY. THE LO
PRES SYSTEM WILL MOVE FARTHER AWAY TO THE NE AND HI PRES BLDS IN
FM THE NNW THU NGT INTO SUN.
&&
.MARINE...
10 PM UPDATE...WINDS AND SEAS HAVE INCREASED WELL OFFSHORE (OFF
THE MD COAST) ACCORDING TO BUOY 09. SEAS ARE JUST ABOUT 5 FT (4.9
FT LAST TWO HOURS). WINDS AND SEAS ARE MUCH LESS TOWARD THE COAST.
INCLUDED A STRIP OF 5 FT SEAS (THROUGH 06Z) IN THE ZONES N OF
PARRAMORE ISLAND BUT HOLDING OFF ON SCA FOR NOW.
HI RES MODELS ARE OVERDOING THE WINDS OVER THE BAY. AS AIR
TEMPERATURES COOL...MIXING WILL INCREASE AND WINDS MAY INCREASE
BUT EXPECT THEM TO STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE TONIGHT...ALLOWING THE WIND
TO REMAIN S/SW. EXPECT SUB-SCA CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WITH WIND
SPEEDS AVERAGING UP TO 15-20 KT ACRS NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS...AND
GENERALLY 10-15 KT ELSEWHERE. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS
THE COAST LATE TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING...FOLLOWED BY EVENTUAL SCA
CONDITIONS LATER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING AS SFC LOW PRESSURE
THEN DEEPENS OFF THE COAST. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO STALL
OFFSHORE THURSDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BRINGING A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS. WITH FLOW BEING OFFSHORE FROM THE
NW...SEAS WOULD TEND TO STAY CAPPED AT 5-6 FT AND TIDAL FLOODING
IS NOT EXPECTED. N/NW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT
WEEKEND WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING TO 10-15KT AND SEAS SUBSIDING.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM/JAO
SHORT TERM...JDM/SAM
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...AJZ/LSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
239 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES INTO THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES AND A RIDGE OVER
THE WRN PLAINS RESULTING IN NNW FLOW THROUGH THE THE WRN LAKES. AT
THE SFC...NNW WINDS PREVAILED BTWN LOW PRES OVER NRN LAKE HURON AND
HIGH PRES OVER NW ONTARIO. THE COMBINATION OF ABUNDANT SFC-800 MB
MOISTURE...CYCLONIC AND UPSLOPE NRLY FLOW AND 850 MB TEMPS AROUND
-1C (LAKE WATER TEMPS STILL NEAR 8C-9C) WAS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME
SCT LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES INTO W AND N CNTRL UPPER MI.
TONIGHT...UPSTREAM OBS MDLS SUGGEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST
AS 850 MB TEMPS FALL TO NEAR -4C...HELPING TO SUSTAIN SOME LIGHT
PCPN. AS THE NW ONTARIO HIGH BUILDS TO THE SE...VEERING WINDS TO
NNE WILL SHIFT THE REMAINING LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS MAINLY INTO N
CNTRL UPPER MI...WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW IS MAXIMIZED. EVEN THOUGH
WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS FALL BELOW 500 FT AGL...EXPECT THAT THE LAKE
OF ICE NUCLEI IN THE MOIST LAYER THAT ONLY EXTENDS TO NEAR
-5C...WILL NOT SUPPORT SNOW. CLOUDS WILL LINGER OVER MOST OF THE
AREA...KEEPING MIN READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. HOWEVER...THERE
MAY BE SOME CLEARING OVER THE EAST WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW FROM ONTARIO E
OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
TUE...THE LINGERING 2K-3K FT LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL KEEP
MOISTURE/CLOUDS TRAPPED INTO THE MORNING...ESPECIALLY DOWNSTREAM OF
MOISTENING OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. BY AFTERNOON...EXPECT ENOUGH
HEATING/MIXING AND DRY ADVECTION TO BRING DIMINISHING CLOUDS THAT
WILL PUSH TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 40S OVER THE S AND WEST WHILE LOWER
READINGS IN THE LOW 40S PREVAIL OVER THE NORTH.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014
A FAIRLY QUIET LONG TERM PERIOD IS IN STORE FOR THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD AND END OF THE WEEKEND. BETWEEN THESE TWO UPPER
RIDGES...A COUPLE SHORTWAVES WILL AFFECT OR BRUSH THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION AND BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN MAINLY ON THURSDAY.
TO START...THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE UNDER AN UPPER
RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY. ABUNDANT DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH WILL LEAD TO A SUNNY DAY ACROSS
THE AREA. HIGHS WILL DEPEND ON THE MIXING DEPTH AND MODELS ARE
CONSISTENT ON THAT ONLY BEING TO 925-900MB (NOT REACHING THE MUCH
WARMER 850MB TEMPS). THUS...WILL KEEP HIGHS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL AND
IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S (WARMEST WEST).
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WITH
BLOCKING FROM THE UPPER LOW SPINNING JUST OFF THE NEW YORK
COAST...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO MOVE AND WILL KEEP
THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONFINED TO THE WESTERN CWA FOR MUCH
OF THURSDAY. DID TREND POPS UP FAIRLY SIGNIFICANTLY (LIKELY VALUES
OVER THE FAR WEST) WITH MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON AT LEAST
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEST HALF. COULD SEE SOME REMNANTS
OF THE SHOWERS MOVING OVER THE EASTERN CWA THURSDAY EVENING AND HAVE
ADDRESSED THAT WITH POPS DIMINISHING TO SLIGHT CHANCES AS THEY WORK
EAST THURSDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL STAY ON THE LIGHT SIDE
AND GENERALLY BETWEEN A TENTH AND A QUARTER OF AN INCH OVER THE
WESTERN CWA.
AFTER THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH ON THURSDAY
NIGHT...WESTERLY FLOW AND DRY AIR WILL WORK BACK OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO DECREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST
TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY AND LIKELY THE WARMEST DAY SINCE THE 12TH
OF OCTOBER. ONCE AGAIN...MIXING DEPTH WILL BE LIMITED AND KEEP THE
AREA FROM MIXING TO THE MUCH WARMER TEMPS ABOVE THE INVERSION
BETWEEN 900-850MB...BUT WOULD STILL EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER
50S AND A FEW 60S IN SOME LOCATIONS.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST AND BRUSH THE AREA ON
SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE...A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT (ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW
SPINNING IN FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO). WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW A DRY
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH LIMITED MOISTURE
BEING THE INHIBITING FACTOR. THUS WILL STICK WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR
FORECAST. EVEN THOUGH WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND BE GUSTY
(20-25MPH) ON SATURDAY...STILL EXPECT HIGHS TO BE ABOVE NORMAL
AS THE COLDEST AIR IS DELAYED AND WON/T ARRIVE UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT.
THAT WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY COOLER...BUT STILL AT OR ABOVE
NORMAL...HIGHS FOR SUNDAY UNDER A SURFACE/UPPER RIDGE.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING ANOTHER
UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT TO AFFECT THE AREA ON MONDAY. WILL
CONTINUE TO SHOW CHANCE POPS FOR THE PASSAGE OF THESE FEATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 147 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014
EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT...THOUGH A PERIOD OF IFR CIGS
WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AT SAW DUE TO STRONGER UPSLOPE WIND
DIRECTION OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KSAW
OVERNIGHT. THE PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT
OF CMX FIRST TUE MORNING AND THEN IN THE AFTERNOON AT IWD...BUT
SHOULD LINGER AT SAW THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON BEFORE FINALLY CLEARING
BY TUE EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014
LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR NEAR WHITEFISH POINT WILL
MOVE TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT.
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BTWN THE EXITING LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE BUILDING OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO. EXPECT NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS INCREASING TO 25-30 KTS THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENING OVER
CNTRL AND EASTERN LK SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY MORNING
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES ACROSS LK SUPERIOR. WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KTS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH STRONGER
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES NORTHERN ONTARIO.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
148 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES INTO THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES AND A RIDGE OVER
THE WRN PLAINS RESULTING IN NNW FLOW THROUGH THE THE WRN LAKES. AT
THE SFC...NNW WINDS PREVAILED BTWN LOW PRES OVER NRN LAKE HURON AND
HIGH PRES OVER NW ONTARIO. THE COMBINATION OF ABUNDANT SFC-800 MB
MOISTURE...CYCLONIC AND UPSLOPE NRLY FLOW AND 850 MB TEMPS AROUND
-1C (LAKE WATER TEMPS STILL NEAR 8C-9C) WAS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME
SCT LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES INTO W AND N CNTRL UPPER MI.
TONIGHT...UPSTREAM OBS MDLS SUGGEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST
AS 850 MB TEMPS FALL TO NEAR -4C...HELPING TO SUSTAIN SOME LIGHT
PCPN. AS THE NW ONTARIO HIGH BUILDS TO THE SE...VEERING WINDS TO
NNE WILL SHIFT THE REMAINING LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS MAINLY INTO N
CNTRL UPPER MI...WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW IS MAXIMIZED. EVEN THOUGH
WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS FALL BELOW 500 FT AGL...EXPECT THAT THE LAKE
OF ICE NUCLEI IN THE MOIST LAYER THAT ONLY EXTENDS TO NEAR
-5C...WILL NOT SUPPORT SNOW. CLOUDS WILL LINGER OVER MOST OF THE
AREA...KEEPING MIN READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. HOWEVER...THERE
MAY BE SOME CLEARING OVER THE EAST WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW FROM ONTARIO E
OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
TUE...THE LINGERING 2K-3K FT LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL KEEP
MOISTURE/CLOUDS TRAPPED INTO THE MORNING...ESPECIALLY DOWNSTREAM OF
MOISTENING OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. BY AFTERNOON...EXPECT ENOUGH
HEATING/MIXING AND DRY ADVECTION TO BRING DIMINISHING CLOUDS THAT
WILL PUSH TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 40S OVER THE S AND WEST WHILE LOWER
READINGS IN THE LOW 40S PREVAIL OVER THE NORTH.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING WILL BE DRY FOR THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES...AS THE 500MB TROUGH OVERHEAD TODAY DIGS INTO THE NE
U.S. THIS WILL SET UP RIDGING AT THE SFC AND ALOFT FOR THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES...WITH SLOWLY MODIFYING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. THE MAIN
CONCERN FOR THOSE WITH SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS STILL WILL BE
MORNING LOWS TUESDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL FALL AT OR BELOW 32F FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA EXCLUDING THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA.
THURSDAY...MODELS HAVE COME IN A BIT WETTER FOR THE
THURSDAY-THURSDAY EVENING TIME PERIOD AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DIGS
ACROSS ONTARIO AND MN DURING THE DAY. WHILE THE MAIN SFC LOW WILL
STILL BE OVER W CANADA AT THAT TIME...A SFC TROUGH OVER MANITOBA AND
NW MN THURSDAY MORNING WILL NEAR THE REGION. WITH UPPER MI STUCK IN
THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IN BETWEEN THE DEEPENING LOW OFF THE NE
COAST...AND THE CANADIAN LOW. LIMITED E PROGRESS OF SHOWERS IS STILL
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH POPS WERE INCREASED SLIGHTLY FOR THE W...AND
WERE EXTENDED INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF BACK
THIS SOLUTION.
LOOK FOR THE 500MB WAVE TO PUSH E OF LAKE SUPERIOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH ANY LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS ENDING. THE W CANADIAN
SFC LOW-500MB LOW WILL SHIFT INTO NE MANITOBA OVERNIGHT...WITH WARM
AIR SURGING INTO UPPER MI. 850MB TEMPS OF 8-12C LOOK REASONABLE
FRIDAY NIGHT ON WSW WINDS...WITH SFC TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 40S.
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE OUR TRANSITION PERIOD...AS ZONAL
FLOW SLIDES IN ALOFT...AND THE SFC RIDGE EXITS TO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE FCST GUIDANCE...SHOWING UP
ON THE IDEA OF HOW MUCH COLD AIR WILL BE ABLE TO SNEAK IN FROM THE
NW. THE 20/00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF HAS 850MB TEMPS AROUND 2C AT 00Z
SUNDAY...WHILE THE 20/12Z IS AT A MUCH MORE MILD 7C. WILL KEEP WITH
A MORE BLENDED SOLUTION FOR THE FCST STILL AT THIS POINT.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL BRING ABOUT A RETURN OF THE 500MB
RIDGE...EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH ONTARIO. THIS
RIDGE WILL SLOWLY EXIT TOWARD THE NEW ENGLAND STATES ON MONDAY AS A
TROUGH SETTLES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND NEARS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF WET WEATHER LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
OF NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPS REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 147 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014
EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT...THOUGH A PERIOD OF IFR CIGS
WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AT SAW DUE TO STRONGER UPSLOPE WIND
DIRECTION OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KSAW
OVERNIGHT. THE PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT
OF CMX FIRST TUE MORNING AND THEN IN THE AFTERNOON AT IWD...BUT
SHOULD LINGER AT SAW THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON BEFORE FINALLY CLEARING
BY TUE EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014
LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR NEAR WHITEFISH POINT WILL
MOVE TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT.
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BTWN THE EXITING LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE BUILDING OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO. EXPECT NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS INCREASING TO 25-30 KTS THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENING OVER
CNTRL AND EASTERN LK SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY MORNING
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES ACROSS LK SUPERIOR. WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KTS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH STRONGER
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES NORTHERN ONTARIO.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
332 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES TODAY. LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS ALONG THE EAST
COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON
FRIDAY. A WEAK FRONT POSSIBLE FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AT 06Z THE COLD FRONT IS JUST ABOUT INTO OUR FORECAST AREA AND
WILL RACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THERE ARE
ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. BY 16Z ACCORDING
TO THE HRRR EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS. THESE
SHOWERS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE. MODELS ARE
IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO AND EVEN INDICATE THERE
COULD BE A FEW ISOLATED RUMBLES OF THUNDER LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE BEST LOCATION FOR THUNDER WILL BE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
HAVE GONE ON THE LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY AND
TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LOW WILL PIVOT DOWN INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND TO THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST ON WEDNESDAY. THIS SPELLS FOR A RATHER CHILLY
WX REGIME WITH A CLOUDY SKY AND SOME SHOWERS TO BOOT. THE UPPER
LOW WILL THEN PIVOT NE ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST ON THURSDAY. AS
SUCH...THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL LESS SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS
THE AREA. SUNSHINE SHOULD RETURN FOR MOST...EXCEPT IN THE N
MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT LOWLAND COUNTIES WHERE CLOUDS WILL LINGER
AS A LINGERING INFLUENCE FROM THE UPPER LOW MAY BE REALIZED.
FOR TEMPS...TRIED TO UNDERCUT GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY
KEEPING MOST LOWLAND ZONES IN THE LOW 50S AND 40S IN THE THE HIGH
TERRAIN. STILL COULD BE SOME FROST ACROSS NE KY AND SE OH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ASSUMING THE CLOUDS WILL BREAK IN TIME.
THUS...HAVE COOLEST READINGS ACROSS THOSE AREAS. IMPROVEMENT IN
THE TEMPS WILL BE FELT ON THURSDAY DUE TO SUNSHINE...BUT STILL
CHILLY ACROSS N WV WHERE CLOUDS MAY LINGER.
AS FOR PRECIP TYPE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...H85 TEMPS TRY TO GO BELOW 0C
BUT SOUNDINGS DO NOT SUPPORT ICE CRYSTALS FOR SNOW. SO KEPT THINGS
LIQUID IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS FOR NOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERALL...DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. PERIOD
STARTS OUT WITH A CLOSED LOW OFF TO THE NORTHEAST/CENTERED ALONG THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST...WITH A FEW CLOUDS...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN ZONES CLOSER TO VICINITY OF THE LOW. SEASONABLE...BUT
DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA WITH A W/NW FLOW.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY AN ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE LATER SATURDAY.
MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH EACH OF THESE FEATURES...AND EXPECTING
MOSTLY JUST AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...ALTHOUGH LIGHT
PRECIPITATION CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT. FOR NOW...MAINTAINED A
DRY FORECAST.
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES AROUND
TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL RACE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND WILL HAVE ISOLATED
SHOWERS. MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 13-14Z. CIGS WILL IMPROVE
FOR A FEW HOURS BUT EXPECT AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS BY 16Z AND MVFR
CIGS ONCE AGAIN. THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED -TSRA AREA WIDE FROM
19-22Z BUT WILL ONLY INCLUDE AT KPKB AND KEKN. MVFR CIGS WILL STAY
AROUND THROUGH TONIGHT. KPKB...KEKN...KCKB COULD BE IFR AFTER O6Z
ON THE 22ND.
W/NW WINDS LESS THAN 10KT EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY WITH HIGHER
GUSTS ALONG THE RIDGES.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z
WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND HOW LONG MVFR CONDITIONS COULD
LAST THIS MORNING. IFR CONDITIONS COULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE TUE 10/21/14
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
CRW CONSISTENCY H M M H H H M L H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H M H H H M
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M H H M
EKN CONSISTENCY H H L L L L L L H H H L
PKB CONSISTENCY M M H H H M H L L L M M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H M M L H H H H L
AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR IN LOW STRATUS POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FB/ARJ
NEAR TERM...FB
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...FB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
248 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR BUFFALO WILL MOVE OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COAST LATER TODAY AND THEN REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH MID WEEK...TRAPPED
BY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF
THE NATION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY AND EXTEND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
THE COLD FRONT IS NOW PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA AND FOR THE
MOMENT...MOST OF THE RAIN IS EAST OF OHIO. MODELS SHOW THE UPPER
LOW DROPPING SOUTH TODAY REACHING EASTERN LAKE ERIE BY 18Z AND
WESTERN PA BY 00Z. IN RESPONSE...THE HRRR SHOWS PRECIP
REDEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING WITH
HIGHEST COVERAGE AND GREATEST CONFIDENCE EAST THIRD TO HALF. WILL
HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS FROM CLEVELAND EAST AND TAPER DOWN TO SLIGHT
CHANCE FAR WEST. WITH CLOUDS...RAIN AND SOME COLD
ADVECTION...HIGHS WILL LIKELY NOT GET OUT OF THE LOW TO MID 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN PA TODAY REACHING NRN VA
TONIGHT BEFORE FINALLY MOVING OFF THE DELMARVA COAST WEDNESDAY. THE
LOW MOVES BACK NORTH INTO NEW ENGLAND FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
BASICALLY EASTERN OHIO AND NWRN PA WILL BE WITHIN THE CIRCULATION
OF THE SYSTEM TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SHORT WAVES ROTATING
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL COME TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY CHANCE POPS FOR NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA WEDNESDAY AS DEEPER MOISTURE PULLS EAST. THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AS VERY DRY AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
TEMPS BELOW NORMAL TO START...RISING TO NEAR NORMAL BY LATE WEEK.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF A COLD FRONT CLIPPING THE AREA
SAT OR EARLY SAT NIGHT IS LEADING TO UNCERTAINTY. FOR NOW WILL STAY
WITH SLIGHT CHC POPS. TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE A LITTLE MORE FOR
SAT...GETTING CLOSE TO NORMAL.
CONTINUE UNCERTAINTY FOR SUN DUE TO THE MODEL DIFFERENCES. WILL KEEP
THE FORECAST DRY WITH TEMPS SIMILAR TO SAT. MORE UPPER RIDGING FOR
MON AND A S TO SW FLOW SHOULD FINALLY LEAD TO A DAY OF TEMPS ABOVE
NORMAL. RIGHT NOW THE MODELS KEEP THE BETTER MOISTURE WEST OF THE
AREA SO WILL KEEP THE DAY DRY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MIX OF IFR AND MVFR CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO DAYLIGHT THEN SHOW A
LITTLE IMPROVEMENT FROM 14 TO 18Z. TOL AND FDY MAY BE ABLE TO CARRY
VFR LEVELS DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT SITES FURTHER EAST WILL LIKELY
HANG ON TO MVFR. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE LATE AFTERNOON THRU 06Z. SCT
SHRA...MAINLY FROM CLE TO CAK EAST WILL CONTINUE NEXT 24 HOURS AS
UPPER LEVEL LOW STALLS JUST EAST OF AREA. COLDER TEMPS WILL ALSO ADD
SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO THE SHRA.
WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KNOTS WILL BE LIKELY TODAY THEN SHOULD
GRADUALLY DECREASE TONIGHT.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR SHOULD SLOWLY SHIFT EAST WED THRU WED NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
THINK INCREASING NORTH WINDS WILL PRODUCE SCA CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF
THE LAKE TODAY THAT WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE INTO WED NIGHT AND MAYBE
EVEN INTO THU EVE AS THE WEATHER PATTERN SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE. HIGH
PRESSURE DOES FINALLY SPREAD UP THE OHIO VALLEY FRI AND SHOULD
DECREASE THE WINDS ENOUGH FOR WAVES TO BE BELOW 4 FEET.
THE MODELS DIFFER MORE FOR SAT SO THE STRENGTH AND AFFECTS OF A COLD
FRONT THAT MAY CROSS THE LAKE IS IN QUESTION. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW
SOME INCREASE IN A SW WIND BY SAT VEERING WEST BY THE END OF THE DAY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
550 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE EVOLVING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES WILL CONTINUE TO BRING COOL AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH MID-WEEK. SLOWLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH MILDER WEATHER
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A PAIR OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSES AT 09Z: 1)
DIGGING SWD THROUGH SRN ONTARIO (HELPING TO EVENTUALLY CARVE OUT
AND CLOSE OFF UPPER LOW) AND 2) ROTATING EWD THRU CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA. THE PA IMPULSE WILL CONTINUE SHIFT EWD THRU THE
MORNING AND MAINTAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY PRIMARILY OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL ALLEGHENIES...WHICH SHOULD BECOME
ENHANCED BY POST FRONTAL NW/UPSLOPE FLOW. LATEST HRRR CONFIRMS
THIS WHILE KEEPING MOST AREAS S/E OF THE I-99 CORRIDOR MAINLY DRY
THRU MID-LATE MORNING.
ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED
AND EVENTUALLY CLOSING OFF OVER PA BY THIS EVE/00Z.
MEANWHILE...SFC LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER BUFFALO NY WILL
TRANSFER ITS ENERGY TO COASTAL DEVELOPMENT NEAR OR JUST OFFSHORE
NJ AND THE DELMARVA. THE LATEST RAP SFC PRES FALLS ARE STARTING TO
SHOW THIS WITH -3 TO -4MB FALLS. DIFFERENCES START TO EMERGE IN
THE MODELS WITH THE SFC LOW TRACK/POSITION BY 22/12Z WITH THE
GFS/GEFS MEMBERS BEING WEST OF THE ECMWF/CMC ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.
RELATIVELY COOL AIR ALOFT ACCOMPANYING THE EVOLVING UPPER LEVEL
LOW WITH MID-LVL LAPSE RATES IN THE 6.5-7.0 C/KM RANGE...AND LG
SCALE LIFT GENERATED BY VORT MAXIMA PIVOTING OVER THE REGION
SHOULD PROMOTE INCREASED COVERAGE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY BY THE
AFTERNOON. HRRR SHOWS BULK OF SHOWERS OVER WRN PA THROUGH 18Z WITH
DEVELOPING SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL AND ERN SECTIONS LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE MODEL GUIDANCE PROGS WEAK INSTABILITY /CAPES
GENERALLY AOB 300 J/KG/ ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SERN ZONES
WHICH...WHEN COUPLED WITH THE STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES...MAY
PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW ISOLATED/EMBEDDED LOW-TOPPED TSTMS
TO FORM WITHIN A BROADER AREA OF SCT TO NMRS SHOWERS.
MAIN CHANGE TO DAY 1 MAX/MIN TEMPS WAS TO RAISE OVERNIGHT LOWS
GIVEN PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND 5-10KT SUSTAINED N-NW WINDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW PIVOTING
AND WRAPPING NWWD THROUGH 12Z THURS WITH SFC LOW BECOMING NEARLY
STACKED ABOUT 100-200 MILES SSE OF LONG ISLAND. THERE CONTINUES TO
BE SOME PLACEMENT ISSUES WITH THE SFC LOW WITH THE 00Z GFS/GEFS
AND 21Z SREF ALL REASONABLY WELL CLUSTERED. THE PREVIOUS TWO RUNS
OF THE ECMWF ARE SOUTH OF THIS CONSENSUS WITH THE 00Z NAM/CMC TO
THE EAST. A SUPERBLEND OF OP/ENS/WPC QPF SHOWS THE HIGHEST POPS
OVER THE ERN 1/3 OF THE CWA EARLY WED NEAR POSSIBLE ZONE OF WRAP-
AROUND PCPN...BEFORE TRENDING LOWER WED NGT INTO THURS. IT WILL
FEEL RATHER RAW WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND A CHILLY/GUSTY NLY WIND.
A 50/50 BLEND OF CONSENSUS AND BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS GUIDANCE
YIELDED SLIGHTLY LOWER DAYTIME HIGHS AND WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS.
THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD WILL START WITH THE NEW ENGLAND COASTAL STORM LIFTING
SLOWLY NEWD ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
THU INTO SAT. THIS LOW WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF CHILLY WRAP-AROUND
RAINS IN THE FCST FOR DAY 3 POSSIBLY INTO DAY 4 DEPENDING ON HOW
FAST THE STORM LIFTS OUT. THE KEY HERE LKLY LIES UPSTREAM WITH
STRONG SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO NRN CA. THIS ENERGY IS
EXPECTED TO SPLIT OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH NRN STREAM ENERGY
PROJECTED TO DIG SEWD THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS AND MOVE OFF THE
EAST COAST BY SAT NGT. THE 00Z NON NCEP DATA WANTS TO HANG ONTO
THE NW FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM A LITTLE LONGER THAN THE
GFS/GEFS WHICH SHOW SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. THIS SEEMS DUE TO MORE PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING
SEWD ACRS SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES DOWN THE
FRONT-SIDE OF A SUBTROPCIAL RIDGE MIGRATING EWD FROM AZ/NM INTO
TX. WITH THE FLOW ALOFT FCST TO TREND TOWARD LESS AMPLIFICATION
AND SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE IN TIME WITH A BROAD BELT OF
WESTERLIES EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC COAST INTO THE NATIONS
MIDSECTION...THE DOWNSTREAM PATTERN SHOULD EVENTUALLY UNDERGO SOME
RECONFIGURATION. THIS SHOULD SEND HEIGHTS RISING WHICH WOULD
SUPPORT MILDER TEMP TREND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THAT BEING
SAID...WITH THE PATTERN RECONFIGURATION TIED TO SMALLER SCALE
DISTURBANCES WHICH TEND TO BE RATHER NOISY AT THESE RANGES...THE
EVOLUTION OF THE CHANGE IN FLOW IS LIKELY TO BE HANDLED
DIFFERENTLY IN UPCOMING MODEL AND ENSEMBLE CYCLES.
THE TAKEHOME MESSAGE: WEATHER CONDITIONS LKLY TRENDING DRIER AND
MILDER FROM THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAIN CHANGE TO 09Z TAF PACKAGE WAS TO BACK OFF ON LOWER CIGS
AND VISIBILITIES SOME...GIVEN TRENDS SO FAR. LOW CONDITIONS
MAINLY LIMITED TO BFD AND JST SO FAR.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
KEEP SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF CENTRAL PA
THIS MORNING. MOST OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS ACROSS THE SUSQUEHANNA
VALLEY HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE AREA. THE MAIN PROBLEM WILL BE LOW
CIGS IN SPOTS...MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR WEST. VISIBILITIES IN MOST
LOCATIONS ARE STILL GOOD.
BY LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON...SHOWERS WILL BE MORE
SCATTERED IN NATURE...AND MUCH OF THE AREA EAST OF THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS WILL BE VFR.
AS THE LOW REFORMS OFF THE EAST COAST LATER TODAY...LOWER CIGS
AND SHOWERS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD LATE.
THE AIRMASS WILL BE QUITE COLD ALOFT TODAY...THUS ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
NOT LOOKING AT REAL STRONG WINDS TODAY.
HOWEVER...AS THE LOW REFORMS OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT...WINDS
WILL PICK UP SOME.
THE SFC AND UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL KEEP CLOUDY...BREEZY...AND AT
TIMES WET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA INTO THU.
EXPECT SOME IMPROVEMENT ON FRIDAY...AS THE SYSTEM SLOWLY WORKS
EASTWARD.
OUTLOOK...
WED-FRI...LOW CIGS POSS W MTNS...MAINLY AT NIGHT/EARLY AM.
SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
459 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE EVOLVING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES WILL CONTINUE TO BRING COOL AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH MID-WEEK. SLOWLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH MILDER WEATHER
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A PAIR OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSES AT 09Z: 1)
DIGGING SWD THROUGH SRN ONTARIO (HELPING TO EVENTUALLY CARVE OUT
AND CLOSE OFF UPPER LOW) AND 2) ROTATING EWD THRU CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA. THE PA IMPULSE WILL CONTINUE SHIFT EWD THRU THE
MORNING AND MAINTAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY PRIMARILY OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL ALLEGHENIES...WHICH SHOULD BECOME
ENHANCED BY POST FRONTAL NW/UPSLOPE FLOW. LATEST HRRR CONFIRMS
THIS WHILE KEEPING MOST AREAS S/E OF THE I-99 CORRIDOR MAINLY DRY
THRU MID-LATE MORNING.
ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED
AND EVENTUALLY CLOSING OFF OVER PA BY THIS EVE/00Z.
MEANWHILE...SFC LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER BUFFALO NY WILL
TRANSFER ITS ENERGY TO COASTAL DEVELOPMENT NEAR OR JUST OFFSHORE
NJ AND THE DELMARVA. THE LATEST RAP SFC PRES FALLS ARE STARTING TO
SHOW THIS WITH -3 TO -4MB FALLS. DIFFERENCES START TO EMERGE IN
THE MODELS WITH THE SFC LOW TRACK/POSITION BY 22/12Z WITH THE
GFS/GEFS MEMBERS BEING WEST OF THE ECMWF/CMC ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.
RELATIVELY COOL AIR ALOFT ACCOMPANYING THE EVOLVING UPPER LEVEL
LOW WITH MID-LVL LAPSE RATES IN THE 6.5-7.0 C/KM RANGE...AND LG
SCALE LIFT GENERATED BY VORT MAXIMA PIVOTING OVER THE REGION
SHOULD PROMOTE INCREASED COVERAGE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY BY THE
AFTERNOON. HRRR SHOWS BULK OF SHOWERS OVER WRN PA THROUGH 18Z WITH
DEVELOPING SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL AND ERN SECTIONS LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE MODEL GUIDANCE PROGS WEAK INSTABILITY /CAPES
GENERALLY AOB 300 J/KG/ ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SERN ZONES
WHICH...WHEN COUPLED WITH THE STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES...MAY
PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW ISOLATED/EMBEDDED LOW-TOPPED TSTMS
TO FORM WITHIN A BROADER AREA OF SCT TO NMRS SHOWERS.
MAIN CHANGE TO DAY 1 MAX/MIN TEMPS WAS TO RAISE OVERNIGHT LOWS
GIVEN PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND 5-10KT SUSTAINED N-NW WINDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW PIVOTING
AND WRAPPING NWWD THROUGH 12Z THURS WITH SFC LOW BECOMING NEARLY
STACKED ABOUT 100-200 MILES SSE OF LONG ISLAND. THERE CONTINUES TO
BE SOME PLACEMENT ISSUES WITH THE SFC LOW WITH THE 00Z GFS/GEFS
AND 21Z SREF ALL REASONABLY WELL CLUSTERED. THE PREVIOUS TWO RUNS
OF THE ECMWF ARE SOUTH OF THIS CONSENSUS WITH THE 00Z NAM/CMC TO
THE EAST. A SUPERBLEND OF OP/ENS/WPC QPF SHOWS THE HIGHEST POPS
OVER THE ERN 1/3 OF THE CWA EARLY WED NEAR POSSIBLE ZONE OF WRAP-
AROUND PCPN...BEFORE TRENDING LOWER WED NGT INTO THURS. IT WILL
FEEL RATHER RAW WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND A CHILLY/GUSTY NLY WIND.
A 50/50 BLEND OF CONSENSUS AND BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS GUIDANCE
YIELDED SLIGHTLY LOWER DAYTIME HIGHS AND WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS.
THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD WILL START WITH THE NEW ENGLAND COASTAL STORM LIFTING
SLOWLY NEWD ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
THU INTO SAT. THIS LOW WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF CHILLY WRAP-AROUND
RAINS IN THE FCST FOR DAY 3 POSSIBLY INTO DAY 4 DEPENDING ON HOW
FAST THE STORM LIFTS OUT. THE KEY HERE LKLY LIES UPSTREAM WITH
STRONG SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO NRN CA. THIS ENERGY IS
EXPECTED TO SPLIT OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH NRN STREAM ENERGY
PROJECTED TO DIG SEWD THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS AND MOVE OFF THE
EAST COAST BY SAT NGT. THE 00Z NON NCEP DATA WANTS TO HANG ONTO
THE NW FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM A LITTLE LONGER THAN THE
GFS/GEFS WHICH SHOW SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. THIS SEEMS DUE TO MORE PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING
SEWD ACRS SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES DOWN THE
FRONT-SIDE OF A SUBTROPCIAL RIDGE MIGRATING EWD FROM AZ/NM INTO
TX. WITH THE FLOW ALOFT FCST TO TREND TOWARD LESS AMPLIFICATION
AND SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE IN TIME WITH A BROAD BELT OF
WESTERLIES EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC COAST INTO THE NATIONS
MIDSECTION...THE DOWNSTREAM PATTERN SHOULD EVENTUALLY UNDERGO SOME
RECONFIGURATION. THIS SHOULD SEND HEIGHTS RISING WHICH WOULD
SUPPORT MILDER TEMP TREND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THAT BEING
SAID...WITH THE PATTERN RECONFIGURATION TIED TO SMALLER SCALE
DISTURBANCES WHICH TEND TO BE RATHER NOISY AT THESE RANGES...THE
EVOLUTION OF THE CHANGE IN FLOW IS LIKELY TO BE HANDLED
DIFFERENTLY IN UPCOMING MODEL AND ENSEMBLE CYCLES.
THE TAKEHOME MESSAGE: WEATHER CONDITIONS LKLY TRENDING DRIER AND
MILDER FROM THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
KEEP SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF CENTRAL PA
THIS MORNING. MOST OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS ACROSS THE SUSQUEHANNA
VALLEY HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE AREA. THE MAIN PROBLEM WILL BE LOW
CIGS IN SPOTS...MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR WEST. VISIBILITIES IN MOST
LOCATIONS ARE STILL GOOD.
BY LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON...SHOWERS WILL BE MORE
SCATTERED IN NATURE...AND MUCH OF THE AREA EAST OF THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS WILL BE VFR.
AS THE LOW REFORMS OFF THE EAST COAST LATER TODAY...LOWER CIGS
AND SHOWERS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD LATE.
THE AIRMASS WILL BE QUITE COLD ALOFT TODAY...THUS ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
NOT LOOKING AT REAL STRONG WINDS TODAY.
HOWEVER...AS THE LOW REFORMS OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT...WINDS
WILL PICK UP SOME.
THE SFC AND UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL KEEP CLOUDY...BREEZY...AND AT
TIMES WET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA INTO THU.
EXPECT SOME IMPROVEMENT ON FRIDAY...AS THE SYSTEM SLOWLY WORKS
EASTWARD.
OUTLOOK...
WED-FRI...LOW CIGS POSS W MTNS...MAINLY AT NIGHT/EARLY AM.
SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
329 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE EVOLVING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES WILL CONTINUE TO BRING COOL AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH MID-WEEK. SLOWLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH MILDER WEATHER
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A PAIR OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSES MOVING
THROUGH SRN ONTARIO AND SW PENNSYLVANIA AT 06Z. THE PA IMPULSE WILL
SHIFT EWD THRU THE MORNING AND MAINTAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE
WESTERN ALLEGHENIES...WHICH SHOULD BECOME ENHANCED BY POST FRONTAL
NW/UPSLOPE FLOW. LATEST HRRR INDICATES BAND OF SHOWERS WILL EXIT
THE ERN LWR SUSQ VALLEY BY 07Z WITH MUCH OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE KEYSTONE STATE STAYING MAINLY DRY
INTO MID MORNING.
ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED
AND EVENTUALLY CLOSING OFF OVER PA BY THIS EVE/00Z.
MEANWHILE...SFC LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED JUST NORTH OF BUFFALO NY
OVER LAKE ONTARIO WILL TRANSFER ITS ENERGY TO COASTAL DEVELOPMENT
NEAR OR JUST OFFSHORE NJ AND THE DELMARVA. DIFFERENCES START TO
EMERGE IN THE MODELS BY 22/12Z WITH THE GFS/GEFS MEMBERS BEING
WEST OF THE ECMWF/CMC ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.
RELATIVELY COOL AIR ALOFT ACCOMPANYING THE EVOLVING UPPER LEVEL
LOW WITH MID-LVL LAPSE RATES IN THE 6.5-7.0 C/KM RANGE...AND LG
SCALE LIFT GENERATED BY VORT MAXIMA PIVOTING OVER THE REGION
SHOULD PROMOTE INCREASED COVERAGE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY BY THE
AFTERNOON. HRRR SHOWS BULK OF SHOWERS OVER WRN PA THROUGH 18Z WITH
DEVELOPING SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL AND ERN SECTIONS LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE MODEL GUIDANCE PROGS WEAK INSTABILITY /CAPES
GENERALLY AOB 300 J/KG/ ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SERN ZONES
WHICH...WHEN COUPLED WITH THE STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES...MAY
PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW ISOLATED/EMBEDDED LOW-TOPPED TSTMS
TO FORM WITHIN A BROADER AREA OF SCT TO NMRS SHOWERS.
MAIN CHANGE TO DAY 1 MAX/MIN TEMPS WAS TO RAISE OVERNIGHT LOWS
GIVEN PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND 5-10KT SUSTAINED N-NW WINDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW PIVOTING
AND WRAPPING NWWD THROUGH 12Z THURS WITH SFC LOW BECOMING NEARLY
STACKED ABOUT 100-200 MILES SSE OF LONG ISLAND. THERE CONTINUES TO
BE SOME PLACEMENT ISSUES WITH THE SFC LOW WITH THE 00Z GFS/GEFS
AND 21Z SREF ALL REASONABLY WELL CLUSTERED. THE PREVIOUS TWO RUNS
OF THE ECMWF ARE SOUTH OF THIS CONSENSUS WITH THE 00Z NAM/CMC TO
THE EAST. A SUPERBLEND OF OP/ENS/WPC QPF SHOWS THE HIGHEST POPS
OVER THE ERN 1/3 OF THE CWA EARLY WED NEAR POSSIBLE ZONE OF WRAP-
AROUND PCPN...BEFORE TRENDING LOWER WED NGT INTO THURS. IT WILL
FEEL RATHER RAW WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND A CHILLY/GUSTY NLY WIND.
A 50/50 BLEND OF CONSENSUS AND BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS GUIDANCE
YIELDED SLIGHTLY LOWER DAYTIME HIGHS AND WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS.
THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE OVERALL PATTERN.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE POSITION OF THE STORM WILL KEEP LOTS OF MARITIME AIR FLOWING
IN FROM THE NORTH/EAST AND KEEP POPS PRETTY HIGH ON WED...BUT SOME
IMPROVEMENT IS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE NRN HALF - ESP THE NE. BUT THE MOISTURE WILL
WRAP AROUND THE STORM COMPLETELY AT TIMES. THUS...A MOIST UPSLOPE
FLOW IN THE WRN MTNS WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS IN PLACE WITH
SHOWER CHCS HIGH THERE AS WELL DURING MID-WEEK. AS A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS UNDER THE UPPER SYSTEM OFF THE NJ/NY COAST...NORTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE AND BRING A PERIOD OF BREEZY
CONDITIONS WED INTO THU...AND POSS EVEN INTO FRI.
EVENTUALLY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND CONCURRENT UPPER RIDGING
SHOULD LEAD TO A DRY WEEKEND WITH WESTERLY FLOW AND MILDER
TEMPERATURES ON SAT. THERE COULD BE A WEAK AND DRY FRONT DROP
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MID-ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY...WHICH MAY
PRODUCE WIDELY SCT SHOWERS...BUT IT IS NOT WORTH A POP AT THIS
POINT. TEMPS MAY THEN DIP A FEW DEGS FROM SAT-SUN. OTHERWISE...
GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW LOOKS TO BE THE RULE AT THE LONGEST OF
RANGES IN THE LOCAL FORECAST WITH CHANCE FOR JUST WEAK WAVES TO
IMPACT CENTRAL PA.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
KEEP SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF CENTRAL PA
THIS MORNING. MOST OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS ACROSS THE SUSQUEHANNA
VALLEY HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE AREA. THE MAIN PROBLEM WILL BE LOW
CIGS IN SPOTS...MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR WEST. VISIBILITIES IN MOST
LOCATIONS ARE STILL GOOD.
BY LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON...SHOWERS WILL BE MORE
SCATTERED IN NATURE...AND MUCH OF THE AREA EAST OF THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS WILL BE VFR.
AS THE LOW REFORMS OFF THE EAST COAST LATER TODAY...LOWER CIGS
AND SHOWERS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD LATE.
THE AIRMASS WILL BE QUITE COLD ALOFT TODAY...THUS ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
NOT LOOKING AT REAL STRONG WINDS TODAY.
HOWEVER...AS THE LOW REFORMS OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT...WINDS
WILL PICK UP SOME.
THE SFC AND UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL KEEP CLOUDY...BREEZY...AND AT
TIMES WET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA INTO THU.
EXPECT SOME IMPROVEMENT ON FRIDAY...AS THE SYSTEM SLOWLY WORKS
EASTWARD.
OUTLOOK...
WED-FRI...LOW CIGS POSS W MTNS...MAINLY AT NIGHT/EARLY AM.
SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
257 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE EVOLVING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES WILL CONTINUE TO BRING COOL AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH MID-WEEK. SLOWLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH MILDER WEATHER
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A PAIR OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSES MOVING
THROUGH SRN ONTARIO AND SW PENNSYLVANIA AT 06Z. THE PA IMPULSE WILL
SHIFT EWD THRU THE MORNING AND MAINTAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE
WESTERN ALLEGHENIES...WHICH SHOULD BECOME ENHANCED BY POST FRONTAL
NW/UPSLOPE FLOW. LATEST HRRR INDICATES BAND OF SHOWERS WILL EXIT
THE ERN LWR SUSQ VALLEY BY 07Z WITH MUCH OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE KEYSTONE STATE STAYING MAINLY DRY
INTO MID MORNING.
ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY BECOMING BETTERORGANIZED
AND EVENTUALLY CLOSING OFF OVER PA BY THIS EVE/00Z.
MEANWHILE...SFC LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED JUST NORTH OF BUFFALO NY
OVER LAKE ONTARIO WILL TRANSFER ITS ENERGY TO COASTAL DEVELOPMENT
NEAR OR JUST OFFSHORE NJ AND THE DELMARVA. DIFFERENCES START TO
EMERGE IN THE MODELS BY 22/12Z WITH THE GFS/GEFS MEMBERS BEING
WEST OF THE ECMWF/CMC ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.
RELATIVELY COOL AIR ALOFT ACCOMPANYING THE EVOLVING UPPER LEVEL
LOW WITH MID-LVL LAPSE RATES IN THE 6.5-7.0 C/KM RANGE...AND LG
SCALE LIFT GENERATED BY VORT MAXIMA PIVOTING OVER THE REGION
SHOULD PROMOTE INCREASED COVERAGE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY BY THE
AFTERNOON. HRRR SHOWS BULK OF SHOWERS OVER WRN PA THROUGH 18Z WITH
DEVELOPING SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL AND ERN SECTIONS LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE MODEL GUIDANCE PROGS WEAK INSTABILITY /CAPES
GENERALLY AOB 300 J/KG/ ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SERN ZONES
WHICH...WHEN COUPLED WITH THE STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES...MAY
PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW ISOLATED/EMBEDDED LOW-TOPPED TSTMS
TO FORM WITHIN A BROADER AREA OF SCT TO NMRS SHOWERS.
MAIN CHANGE TO DAY 1 MAX/MIN TEMPS WAS TO RAISE OVERNIGHT LOWS
GIVEN PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND 5-10KT SUSTAINED N-NW WINDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW PIVOTING
AND WRAPPING NWWD THROUGH 12Z THURS WITH SFC LOW BECOMING NEARLY
STACKED ABOUT 100-200 MILES SSE OF LONG ISLAND. THERE CONTINUES TO
BE SOME PLACEMENT ISSUES WITH THE SFC LOW WITH THE 00Z GFS/GEFS
AND 21Z SREF ALL REASONABLY WELL CLUSTERED. THE PREVIOUS TWO RUNS
OF THE ECMWF ARE SOUTH OF THIS CONSENSUS WITH THE 00Z NAM/CMC TO
THE EAST. A SUPERBLEND OF OP/ENS/WPC QPF SHOWS THE HIGHEST POPS
OVER THE ERN 1/3 OF THE CWA EARLY WED NEAR POSSIBLE ZONE OF WRAP-
AROUND PCPN...BEFORE TRENDING LOWER WED NGT INTO THURS. IT WILL
FEEL RATHER RAW WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND A CHILLY/GUSTY NLY WIND.
A 50/50 BLEND OF CONSENSUS AND BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS GUIDANCE
YIELDED SLIGHTLY LOWER DAYTIME HIGHS AND WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS.
THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE OVERALL PATTERN.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE POSITION OF THE STORM WILL KEEP LOTS OF MARITIME AIR FLOWING
IN FROM THE NORTH/EAST AND KEEP POPS PRETTY HIGH ON WED...BUT SOME
IMPROVEMENT IS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE NRN HALF - ESP THE NE. BUT THE MOISTURE WILL
WRAP AROUND THE STORM COMPLETELY AT TIMES. THUS...A MOIST UPSLOPE
FLOW IN THE WRN MTNS WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS IN PLACE WITH
SHOWER CHCS HIGH THERE AS WELL DURING MID-WEEK. AS A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS UNDER THE UPPER SYSTEM OFF THE NJ/NY COAST...NORTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE AND BRING A PERIOD OF BREEZY
CONDITIONS WED INTO THU...AND POSS EVEN INTO FRI.
EVENTUALLY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND CONCURRENT UPPER RIDGING
SHOULD LEAD TO A DRY WEEKEND WITH WESTERLY FLOW AND MILDER
TEMPERATURES ON SAT. THERE COULD BE A WEAK AND DRY FRONT DROP
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MID-ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY...WHICH MAY
PRODUCE WIDELY SCT SHOWERS...BUT IT IS NOT WORTH A POP AT THIS
POINT. TEMPS MAY THEN DIP A FEW DEGS FROM SAT-SUN. OTHERWISE...
GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW LOOKS TO BE THE RULE AT THE LONGEST OF
RANGES IN THE LOCAL FORECAST WITH CHANCE FOR JUST WEAK WAVES TO
IMPACT CENTRAL PA.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE GRT LKS WILL BRING DETERIORATING
FLYING CONDS TO CENTRAL PA TONIGHT IN THE FORM OF LOWERING CIGS
AND SHOWERS. MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT WILL BE DEVELOPING LOW CIGS
AT KBFD. MDLS SUGGEST AN INCREASINGLY MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
ASCENDING THE NW MTNS WILL CAUSE CIGS TO FALL INTO THE IFR RANGE
AT KBFD OVERNIGHT. ELSEWHERE...NO WORSE THAN MVFR CONDS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT.
AS COLD FRONT PUSHES THRU TUE AM...WIND WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHERLY
TO NWRLY. THE RESULTING UPSLOPE FLOW OVR THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS WILL
PLACE KJST AT RISK FOR IFR CIGS BTWN 11Z-15Z. EXPECT RISING CIGS
EVERYWHERE BY AFTN...AS MODEST DIURNAL WARMING OCCURS WITHIN THE
SFC TO 1KM LAYER. BY AFTN...MDL SOUNDINGS AND MOS GUIDANCE SUPPORT
MVFR CIGS AT KBFD/KJST...WITH PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDS FURTHER
EAST. HOWEVER...COOL TEMPS ALOFT WILL CREATE AN UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL LEAD TO NUMEROUS PM SHRA AND EVEN A POSS
TSRA. ANY OF THESE SHRA/TSRA COULD PRODUCE A BRIEF DIP TO IFR
VSBY.
SCT SHOWERS OF DIMINISHING INTENSITY WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
REGION TUE NIGHT...AS SLOW MOVING LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVES THRU THE
AREA. HOWEVER...BIGGEST AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL OF
LOW CIGS REDEVELOPING TUE NIGHT AT KBFD/KJST...THE RESULT OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING OF THE SFC-1KM LAYER AND UPSLOPE FLOW. DOWNSLOPING NW
FLOW SHOULD YIELD MUCH MORE FAVORABLE CONDS FURTHER EAST.
OUTLOOK...
WED-FRI...LOW CIGS POSS W MTNS...MAINLY AT NIGHT/EARLY AM.
SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BROWNSVILLE TX
1252 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014
.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...BRIEF LIGHT SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING AS GULF MOISTURE
SURGES INLAND WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW. THE SHOWERS ARE MOVING EAST
BUT WILL NOT PRODUCE ANY SIGNIFICANT ISSUES TO THE TERMINALS DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CEILINGS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 3000 FT THROUGH
THE NIGHT WITH NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED BUT COULD LOWER TO MVFR IN
THE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD EARLY AROUND SUNRISE. THE EAST WINDS WILL
BECOME MODERATE WITH BETTER CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...CONVECTION IS WANING AND SHOULD DISSIPATE BETWEEN
01-03Z. AS THE CONVECTION ENDS CUMULUS TO TEMPORARILY DISSIPATE AS
WELL HOWEVER WITH A CONTINUED INFLUX OF GULF OF MOISTURE WITH A
NORTHEAST TO EAST WIND PERIODIC SCT TO POSSIBLE BKN VFR CLOUD
COVER IS EXPECTED BUT COULD LOWER APPROACHING MVFR LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF MVFR CIGS AROUND
SUNRISE TUESDAY WHICH MIGHT BE MENTIONED IN THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE.
THERE REMAINS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR TUESDAY LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS REMAIN EAST NORTHEAST BETWEEN 5 AND 10
KNOTS TONIGHT AND 10 TO 14 KNOTS TUESDAY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/
SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
BRO RADAR BEGINNING TO LIGHT UP WITH MAINLY SHOWER ACTIVITY
`SHOTGUNNED` ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE
VALLEY ATTM. SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH A LITTLE DIFFLUENCE IN
THE UPPER LEVELS WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND ANOTHER
LOW OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. MORNING SOUNDING WAS MOIST WITH A PWAT
OF 1.84 INCHES AND DECENT MOISTURE UP TO 500 MB. HRRR HAS A GOOD
HANDLE ON THE SITUATION WHICH PROGRESSES MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE BETTER POPS
NORTH OF THE VALLEY TRANSITIONING TO ZAPATA/STARR COUNTIES AFTER
SUNSET.
EXPECTING A REPEAT OF POPS FOR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. CONFINED POPS TO
OUR NORTHERN SECTIONS OF GULF WATERS TOWARDS DAWN THEN MOVE THAT
AREA INLAND IN THE MORNING HOURS. BETTER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE IN THE
THE RANCHLANDS TUESDAY AND HAVE TRIMMED POPS OUT OF THE VALLEY UNTIL
LATER TUESDAY. COVERAGE MAY NOT BE AS GREAT AS TODAY DUE TO DRIER
AIR MOVING INTO THE 850-700MB LAYER. LESS CLOUDS AND BETTER MIXING
OF LL DRY AIR LED ME TO INCREASE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES IN THE VALLEY
TUESDAY WHICH MOS GUIDANCE SUPPORTS AS WELL /3-5 DEGREES OVER GOING
FORECAST/. KEPT HIGHS AS IS NORTH OF THE VALLEY WITH CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS. /55/
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST SHOULD BRING A RETURN TO DRIER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS WE TURN OFF THE ATMOSPHERIC
SPIGOT.
EYES WILL REMAIN FOCUSED ON THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE AS WE HEAD INTO THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS OUR REGION
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH A WEAKENING EASTERLY FLOW HELPING TO KEEP
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HOVERING CLOSE TO THE 2 INCH MARK. WITH A
WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH EMANATING TOWARD THE LOWER TEXAS COAST
FROM THE LOW...I EXPECT ENOUGH FORCING TO BE IN PLACE TO KEEP AT
LEAST AN ISOLATED SMATTERING OF SHOWERS AROUND FOR THE MORNING HOURS.
THE INFLUENCE OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE LOW SHOULD LESSEN AT
MID-WEEK...AS IT STARTS SLIDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF.
WINDS SHOULD BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY AS SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS
ACROSS THE OHIO AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO DRY FROM THE NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
GRADUALLY GET SHOVED SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES.
AS SUCH...THE GREATEST ODDS OF SEEING CONVECTION OVER EASTERN AREAS
SHOULD BE IN THE MORNING HOURS. LOCALES OVER OUR MORE WESTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN AREAS COULD SEE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES
HOLDING ON INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE ODDS OF SEEING STORMS IN MOST
PLACES SHOULD BE LOW...GIVEN WEAKENING AMOUNTS OF SYNOPTIC SCALE
FORCING AND THAT THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE SEEN AT THE
TIME OF DAY WHEN THERE`S A DIURNAL MINIMUM IN INSTABILITY. STILL
THOUGH...IT CANNOT BE DISCOUNTED BY AFTERNOON.
IN ADDITION TO THE RAIN PROBLEM...WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME COASTAL FLOODING AT MID-WEEK. ROUGH SWELLS FROM
THE EAST-NORTHEAST WILL LIKELY COMBINE WITH HIGHER THAN NORMAL
ASTRONMICAL TIDES TO YIELD THE THREAT DURING THE WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY
TIME FRAME. STAY TUNED.
ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD END BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THANKS TO THE
COMBINATION OF A STRENGTHENING RIDGE ALOFT AND (REALLY) DRIER AIR
MOVES SOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE. RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY
ACROSS MID-AMERICA FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE THE PACIFIC COAST.
GIVEN THE EXPECTED STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE BY THIS WEEKEND AND AMPLE
SUNSHINE...FORECAST TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RAISED A FEW DEGREES WITH
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. THERE`S STILL A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THINGS
DURING THE DAY 5 THROUGH 7 TIME PERIOD THOUGH...AS SOIL MOISTURE
FROM ANY RECENT RAINFALL MAY TEMPER HIGHS JUST A BIT. IN ADDITION
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL LIKELY WEAKEN BY SUNDAY OR MONDAY...AS THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NATION`S MIDSECTION.
THANKS TO WPC AND WFO CORPUS CHRISTI FOR COLLABORATION TODAY. /53/
MARINE...
NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
INCREASING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND GRADUALLY BUILDING SEAS OVER THE
FAR OFFSHORE WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE
SCEC CATEGORY TUESDAY NIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD AS WELL. /55/
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED HEADING INTO MID-WEEK THANKS
TO A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE MARINE AREA. SLIGHTLY
DIMINISHING WIND SPEEDS MAY ALLOW ANY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO BE
DROPPED AT SOME POINT DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...BUT SMALL CRAFT
WILL LIKELY NEED TO CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. INCREASED RIDGING OVER THE REGION FOR THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK SHOULD RESULT IN MORE MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. /53/
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV
67/66
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1144 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014
.UPDATE...
MADE A QUICK UPDATE TO THE GRIDS AND LEGACY TEXT PRODUCTS TO
REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS. UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION CLEARLY EVIDENT IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY JUST WEST OF EL PASO AT THE MOMENT. CONVECTIVE
TRENDS HAVE DECREASED MARKEDLY AND OVERALL UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS
DIMINISHING. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS OVER HUDSPETH COUNTY WHERE AN
AREA OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE MCV PERSISTS. WATER VAPOR AND MODEL
DATA SUGGEST THIS IS IN AN AREA OF PVA AHEAD OF A VORT LOBE EAST
OF THE MAIN UPPER LOW...MOVING TO THE NORTH. THIS AREA OF SHOWERS
SHOULD PERSIST FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS...SO INCREASED THE POPS FOR
THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF HUDSPETH COUNTY. COULD GET GRAZED BY A
SPOTTY SHOWER OVER EL PASO COUNTY AS WELL.
KEPT POPS AROUND 20 FOR MOST AREAS EXCEPT 30S IN THE GILA AND
CATEGORICAL POPS IN HUDSPETH COUNTY...TAPERING DOWN TO 30S/40S
OVER THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS.
WITH LIGHT LOW-LEVEL EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW...COULD GET UPSLOPE
CLOUDS "RUNNING AGROUND" ALONG THE EAST SLOPES AND MAIN RIDGE OF
THE SACRAMENTOS OVERNIGHT...SO INTRODUCED PATCHY FOG IN THAT AREA.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014/
SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE NEW MEXICO BOOTHEEL WILL LIFT OUT
NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW MEXICO ON TUESDAY AND WEAKEN. THIS WILL ALLOW
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE PERSISTS. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH QUICKLY FOLLOWS BEHIND THIS
FIRST LOW AND WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF RAIN ON WEDNESDAY. THE
RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST THE LATTER PORTION OF WEDNESDAY AS
THAT UPPER TROUGH EVENTUALLY PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN A BIT BELOW NORMAL. ON THURSDAY HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
BUILDS OVER THE BORDERLAND TO BRING US SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES
BACK ABOVE NORMAL. WEST FLOW THEN STRAIGHTENS...COLLAPSING AND THEN
MOVING THE RIDGE EASTWARD FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS FLOW WILL
REMAIN DRY HOWEVER WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS OVER THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW NOW APPEARS TO BE JUST SOUTH OF THE NM BOOTHEEL. THE LOW
WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT OPENING INTO AN OPEN WAVE BY
TUESDAY MORNING OVER CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. THIS WILL ALLOW SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE PERSISTS...DEW POINTS IN THE 50S. DEEPER LAYERS
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA BUT CURRENT PW`S OVER THE CWA
ARE AROUND .8" AND MODELS SHOWING THOSE PW`S REMAINING AROUND
8"-.9" ON TUESDAY. THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY SO SOME LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED. IT APPEARS THAT
AS GOOD AS THE HRRR PERFORMED LAST NIGHT...IT IS THAT BAD TODAY.
MODEL SHOWS STRONG CONVECTION TO HAVE ALREADY FORMED OVER WEST TEXAS
AND MOVED NORTHWEST OVER EL PASO BY AROUND THIS TIME. WHILE SOME
CONVECTION IS FORMING IN THIS AREA...NOT EVEN CLOSE TO THE SAME
COVERAGE AS THE HRRR IS SHOWING.
BY TUESDAY NIGHT OPEN WAVE IS NOW OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AS NEXT
PACIFIC TROUGH RAPIDLY MOVES IN BEHIND...OVER WESTERN ARIZONA LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND TO CENTRAL NEW MEXICO MID DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
MAY ENHANCE MORE THUNDERSTORMS INITIALLY ON WEDNESDAY BUT WILL
EVENTUALLY END SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM WEST TO EAST BY AFTERNOON AS
RIDGING AND WARMER AIR ALOFT BUILD OVER THE SOUTHWEST. WILL LEAVE
LOW POPS IN FAR EASTERN CWA WEDNESDAY EVENING BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT
CLEARING BY LATE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A BIT BELOW
NORMAL WITH THE CLOUD COVER.
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO HIGH CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO
BY FRIDAY...AND THEN GRADUALLY DRIFTS EAST AND ERODES AWAY AS STRONG
WEST FLOW DEVELOPS AS STRONG PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS LOOKS BETTER TIMED THAN PREVIOUS
GFS RUNS SO SUNDAY MAY BECOME WINDIER THAN ORIGINALLY THOUGHT.
OTHERWISE DRY AND WARM FROM THURSDAY ONWARD WITH TEMPERATURES BACK
ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION...VALID 21/00Z - 21/00Z...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AND DRIFT EAST
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. AREAS OF SHRA AND TSRA
WILL DEVELOP MOSTLY EAST OF KDMN THROUGH THRU 12Z. VSBY WILL BE
PERIODICALLY REDUCED TO LESS THAN 3SM IN MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN. THE
CLOUD DECK WILL INCREASE AND LOWER TO BETWEEN 5000 TO 6000 FEET AGL.
THROUGH 12Z. CIGS AT KTCS MAY BE LOWER OVERNIGHT. PREVAILING WINDS
WILL BE FROM NORTHEAST TO EAST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH STRONGER GUSTS
IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
FIRE WEATHER...
THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY MOVE TO THE EAST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. A WEAK SECONDARY TROUGH
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...MOSTLY EAST OF
DEMING. DRY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THURSDAY INTO THE NEXT WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL DURING THE DAY AND HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE HIGH THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE AND HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP
SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS DRIER AND MORE
STABLE AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE MAY RESULT IN SOME
STRONG INVERSIONS IN THE MORNINGS WITH POOR VENTILATION RATES
POSSIBLE BY MIDWEEK AND INTO NEXT SATURDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO 56 73 55 75 53 / 40 30 40 30 0
SIERRA BLANCA 50 70 50 72 49 / 70 40 40 40 20
LAS CRUCES 51 71 52 71 49 / 50 30 40 30 0
ALAMOGORDO 51 71 52 71 49 / 50 30 40 30 20
CLOUDCROFT 41 56 40 58 35 / 50 40 40 40 20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 52 71 52 71 51 / 60 30 30 20 0
SILVER CITY 47 66 48 68 47 / 40 20 20 20 0
DEMING 51 72 52 72 48 / 90 30 30 20 0
LORDSBURG 52 72 51 74 49 / 30 20 20 20 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 55 72 56 74 54 / 70 30 40 30 0
DELL CITY 49 72 48 73 45 / 60 40 40 40 20
FORT HANCOCK 54 74 53 77 52 / 60 40 40 30 20
LOMA LINDA 50 67 51 68 51 / 40 30 40 30 20
FABENS 52 75 52 77 50 / 40 30 40 30 0
SANTA TERESA 53 72 53 72 51 / 90 30 40 30 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 54 71 55 70 52 / 40 30 40 30 0
JORNADA RANGE 50 71 47 70 44 / 50 30 40 30 0
HATCH 49 71 49 70 47 / 50 30 30 30 0
COLUMBUS 53 72 54 73 51 / 90 30 30 20 0
OROGRANDE 52 72 53 72 51 / 40 30 40 30 20
MAYHILL 43 61 44 64 42 / 50 40 40 40 20
MESCALERO 40 62 41 63 37 / 50 40 40 40 20
TIMBERON 40 61 42 63 38 / 50 40 40 40 20
WINSTON 45 65 46 67 43 / 60 30 40 30 0
HILLSBORO 49 67 50 68 47 / 60 30 30 20 0
SPACEPORT 48 71 48 70 45 / 50 30 40 30 0
LAKE ROBERTS 44 65 45 68 43 / 50 30 30 20 0
HURLEY 48 68 49 70 49 / 50 20 30 20 0
CLIFF 46 70 44 72 41 / 40 20 20 20 0
MULE CREEK 44 69 41 71 38 / 40 20 20 10 0
FAYWOOD 49 67 50 69 48 / 60 30 30 20 0
ANIMAS 51 73 51 76 49 / 40 20 20 20 0
HACHITA 50 72 49 74 48 / 60 20 30 20 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 49 76 49 76 47 / 60 20 20 20 0
CLOVERDALE 49 74 51 75 48 / 40 20 20 10 0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE - HARDIMAN
PREV - HEFNER/LUNDEEN
FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
319 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014
THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT PER LATEST
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE AND VAD WIND PROFILES ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO WRAP STRATUS
DECK OF CLOUDS INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN PER LATEST FOG
PRODUCT SATELLITE. LATEST 08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS SURFACE RIDGE
OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA. TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE FORECAST HAVE DROPPED INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 40S...PER
LATEST METARS.
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS TONIGHT IS FOG POTENTIAL IN RIVER VALLEYS.
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF WISCONSIN AND
REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
SUBSIDENCE UNDERNEATH THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL ALLOW SKIES TO BECOME
MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
TONIGHT...WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND CLEAR
SKIES...AN INVERSION DEVELOPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND ALLOWS
THE POTENTIAL OF FOG TO FORM IN RIVER VALLEYS AFTER 06Z
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THE 21.00Z GFS/NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS CONTINUE
TO SHOW OVER 10 KNOTS OF WIND JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...AT AND ABOVE
200 FEET. THIS STRONG OF WIND WILL INHIBIT WIDESPREAD FOG
FORMATION IN THE RIVER VALLEYS. AT THIS TIME...HAVE LEFT MENTION
OF PATCHY FOG IN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND TRIBUTARIES.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014
NEXT CONCERN ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND NEW
MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THE
FORECAST AREA WILL RECEIVE PRECIPITATION...AS THE 21.00Z
GFS/NAM/ECMWF INDICATE ENOUGH QG FORCING AND ISENTROPIC LIFT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW TO PRODUCE SHOWERS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 06Z THURSDAY. THE 21.00Z GFS/NAM
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING A FRONTOGENETICAL BAND OF
PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN AND A
COMPLEX OF SHOWERS...POSSIBLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM OVER
EASTERN IOWA SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON NOSE OF WEAK 925-850MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT BY 18Z THURSDAY. THE 21.00Z NAM SHOWS 0-6KM
MOST UNSTABLE CAPE OF 200 J/KG ACROSS THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN FORECAST AREA. WITH THE
INSTABILITY VERY WEAK...WILL LEAVE MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE
FORECAST.
FOCUS THEN TURNS TO TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY...AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE 21.00Z GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. MINOR DIFFERENCES ARE INDICATED ON
AMPLIFICATION AND PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BETWEEN THE
ECMWF AND GFS. THIS WILL HAVE MINOR IMPACTS ON HOW FAR NORTH
WARMER AIRMASS PUSHES NORTHWARD ACROSS FORECAST AREA.
HOWEVER...BOTH THE MODELS SHOW STRONG WARMER AIR ADVECTING INTO
THE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND AND 850MB TEMPERATURES WARMING UP
TO PLUS 18 DEGREES CELSIUS BY 00Z MONDAY. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL...WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE 60S INTO THE LOWER 70S.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO EASTERN UNITED STATES SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES. THE 21.00Z GFS/ECMWF EJECT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH THE
MODELS SHOWING DIFFERENCES ON PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. BOTH THE MODELS INDICATE DECENT LIFT AND MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE TO WARRANT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014
THE MOSTLY VFR BLANKET OF CLOUDS HAS PERSISTED THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS ACROSS WI...ALTHOUGH RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTING SOME
ERODING STARTING ON THE WESTERN EDGES. AT THE MOMENT...THE BACKEDGE
REMAINS JUST EAST/NORTH OF KLSE. 850-700 MB WINDS VEER TO THE
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT THOUGH...AND THIS COULD BRING DOWN THE CLOUDS
FROM NORTHERN WI. RAP/NAM 850 MB RH FIELDS ERODE/MOVE EAST
OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH LINGER SOME 925 MB RH. GOING TO HOLD THE COURSE
WITH SKC/SCT CONDITIONS FOR KLSE RIGHT NOW...KEEPING THE CLOUD
SHIELD JUST ON THE DOORSTEP. IF IT WOULD MOVE IN...CIGS LOOK VFR
NEAR 4KFT AT THIS TIME.
LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY OVERNIGHT...AND GRADUALLY MORE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY TUE. SOME INCREASE TOWARD 10 KTS AT KRST
BY AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS THE NEXT COUPLE OVERNIGHTS-MORNINGS
BRINGS TO QUESTION IF FOG COULD DEVELOP IN THE RIVER VALLEYS. AT
THIS TIME...CHANCES LOOK SMALL. RAP SOUNDINGS KEEP WINDS STIRRING
JUST ABOVE THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION OVERNIGHT...12+ KTS AT 200 FT.
NOT CONDUCIVE FOR DENSE FOG FORMATION AT KLSE. GFS/NAM SOUNDINGS
SIMILAR FOR TUE NIGHT...KEEPING 10+ KTS OF WINDS JUST OFF THE SFC.
IF A DEEPER LIGHT WIND FIELD WOULD BE REALIZED...THE FG THREAT
INCREASES.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM...DTJ
AVIATION.....RIECK
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014
THE LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ONTARIO AND A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS RUNNING
SOUTHWEST OVER THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL PLAINS.
EAST OF THE RIDGE AXIS...NORTH TO NORTH NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES
OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE COMBO OF UNSTABLE CONDITIONS OVER
LAKE SUPERIOR AND THERMAL TROUGHING ARE CONTRIBUTING TO WIDESPREAD
STRATO-CU ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF WISCONSIN. AREA OBS ARE
STILL REPORTING SPOTTY SPRINKLES. FURTHER NORTH...DRIER AIR IS
WORKING SOUTHWARD OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. LOOKING UPSTREAM...A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXITS OVER THE CENTRAL OF THE CONTINENT WHICH IS
LEADING TO CLEAR AND QUIET CONDITIONS. FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE
CLOUDS TRENDS TODAY FOLLOWED BY TEMPS.
TODAY...NOT AN EASY CLOUD FORECAST TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
BUILD SOUTHWARD OUT OF ONTARIO...BUT 925MB THERMAL TROUGHING AND
NORTH TO NNE FLOW CONTINUE OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH LOWERING
INVERSION HEIGHTS AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...THINK
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO HANG AROUND OVER N-C AND MOST OF EASTERN
WISCONSIN THROUGH THE MID-MORNING HOURS. BUT WITH DAYTIME
HEATING...MIXING SHOULD TAP INTO THE VERY DRY AIR ABOVE THE
INVERSION WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO RAPID CLEARING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
THE EXCEPTION WILL LIKELY BE THE LAKESHORE WHERE NNE WINDS WILL KEEP
LAKE CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S.
TONIGHT...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THIS INCOMING AIRMASS WILL BE VERY DRY...WITH
PWATS UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...SHOULD HAVE NEARLY IDEAL RADIATIVE COOLING CONDITIONS.
DROPPED LOW TEMPERATURES BELOW THE COLDEST GUIDANCE. LOWS IN THE
LOWER 20S WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS N-C WISCONSIN. MAINLY MID 20S TO
LOW 30S EVERYWHERE ELSE.
WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN THE
AFTERNOON BUT WILL BE TOO FAR WEST FOR ANY IMPACT ON OUR SENSIBLE
WEATHER. SO SHOULD SEE ANOTHER DAY OF PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. LOW
INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL PREVENT MUCH MIXING. SO EXPECT SEASONABLE
TEMPS IN THE LOWER 50S.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014
UPPER RIDGE OVER WISCONSIN AND ILLINOIS GETS DAMPENED
AND PUSHED TO THE EAST AS AN UPPER TROUGH DROPS TOWARDS WISCONSIN
FROM CENTRAL CANADA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT APPROACHES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN
MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY WHILE A WAVE MOVES TO
THE NORTH ALONG THE FRONT. THE MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE SHOWERS BUT THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES IN HOW QUICKLY IT EXITS. MOST PLACES SHOULD GET SOME
SHOWER ACTIVITY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING BUT AMOUNTS LOOK TO
BE MODEST AND AROUND A QUARTER TO HALF INCH. AFTER THAT UPPER FLOW
BECOMES NORTHWEST WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNDAY. RISING UPPER HEIGHTS SHOULD BRING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES STARTING ON FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 944 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014
BKN-OVC CLOUDS LATE THIS EVENING RANGED FROM MVFR LEVELS OVER
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO A LOWER END VFR CIG OVER CENTRAL AND
EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. WHILE POCKETS OF CLEAR SKIES WILL DEVELOP
TONIGHT...IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED TO BE LATE TONIGHT FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. SAT IMAGERY
SHOWS A DECREASING CLOUD AREA WORKING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND MY
BEGIN TO REACH FAR NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN STARTING AROUND 07Z.
ISOLATED SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS WILL LINGER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS WELL. CONTINUED FEED OF DRIER AIR WITH A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE STATE FROM THE WEST WILL PRODUCE VFR
CONDITIONS TUESDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LINGERING MVFR OR LOW
VFR CIGS TOWARD LAKE MICHIGAN OR EASTERN WISCONSIN.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......TDH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1026 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014
.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014
AN UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST KEEPING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
SMALL SHOWER CHANCES AROUND TODAY BUT THEN ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD IN. ANOTHER UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
BRINGING SMALL SHOWER CHANCES BEFORE MORE STOUT UPPER RIDGING BUILDS
IN THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY BELOW NORMAL UNTIL FRIDAY
AND THEN WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL FOR A FEW DAYS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1026 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014
PUSHED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH AS LAKE ENHANCED
SHOWERS ARE SURVIVING WELL INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. DOUBT THESE WILL
AMOUNT TO MUCH MORE THAN SPRINKLES...OR MAYBE A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS
AT BEST. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014
A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS MORNING ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE UPPER LOW AND COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND
EAST. HIGH UNCERTAINTY AND SMALL COVERAGE IF ANY SO KEPT TO A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING WITH PLACEMENT BASED ON THE HRRR
AND RUC OUTPUT. EXPECT SKIES TO BE MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR MOST OF THE DAY
WITH COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT ALLOWING QUICK DEVELOPMENT OF STRATOCU
WITH DAYTIME HEATING. FOR TEMPERATURES LEANED TOWARD COOLER MET
NUMBERS WITH EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014
BRIEF UPPER RIDGING WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND CONTINUED COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LOWS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL GET INTO
THE MID 30S IN PLACES AND WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE COULD SEE SOME FROST AROUND THE AREA. FOR NOW
PUT PATCHY FROST ANYWHERE LOWS WOULD GET BELOW 38 AND WILL NEED TO
MONITOR FOR ADVISORY POTENTIAL WITH UPCOMING FORECASTS.
ON THURSDAY NIGHT A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THAT WILL
BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AS WELL AS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A
LIGHT SHOWER ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 204 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014
DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THIS PERIOD AS ECMWF AND THE GFS BOTH
DEPICT A QUICK MOVING SHORT WAVE EXITING THE AREA EARLY ON FRIDAY
MORNING. A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BEFORE SLOWLY PROGRESSING EASTWARD
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE WILL ACCOMPANY THE RIDGE
ALOFT AND KEEP GENERALLY NORTHWEST TO WEST FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN DRY WEATHER
FOR CENTRAL INDIANA WITH TEMPERATURE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMALS.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 211500Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1008 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014
FOCUS OF UPDATE IS FOR KIND AND KLAF WHERE MVFR CEILINGS AND A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS MAKING MORE OF A PUSH SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.
ADDED VCSH AT BOTH SITES THROUGH 18-19Z WITH POSSIBILITY FOR
CEILINGS TO DROP TO 2000-2500FT PERIODICALLY AS WELL.
12Z DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
VFR STRATOCU PROGRESSING SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING AS ANOTHER WAVE ALOFT TRACKS THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES. SEEING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN INDIANA AS
WELL...AND ITS POSSIBLE SOME OF THESE SHOWERS MAY GET FAR ENOUGH
SOUTH TO BRIEFLY IMPACT KIND AND KLAF LATER THIS MORNING. WILL
MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST IN THE TERMINALS HOWEVER...WITH COVERAGE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SPARSE. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND RH PROGS SUGGEST
CEILINGS FALLING TO AROUND 3500FT FOR BULK OF THE DAY...ALTHOUGH
POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR CEILINGS TO BRIEFLY DIP TO MVFR AT KLAF.
SKIES WILL CLEAR THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER WAVE ROTATES AWAY TO
THE EAST AND A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS SOUTH INTO CENTRAL
INDIANA. NORTHERLY WINDS AT 10-15KTS TODAY WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND
5KTS TONIGHT AND VEER NORTHEAST.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP/NIELD
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM...PUMA
AVIATION...RYAN
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1008 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014
AN UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST KEEPING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
SMALL SHOWER CHANCES AROUND TODAY BUT THEN ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD IN. ANOTHER UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
BRINGING SMALL SHOWER CHANCES BEFORE MORE STOUT UPPER RIDGING BUILDS
IN THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY BELOW NORMAL UNTIL FRIDAY
AND THEN WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL FOR A FEW DAYS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014
A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS MORNING ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE UPPER LOW AND COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND
EAST. HIGH UNCERTAINTY AND SMALL COVERAGE IF ANY SO KEPT TO A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING WITH PLACEMENT BASED ON THE HRRR
AND RUC OUTPUT. EXPECT SKIES TO BE MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR MOST OF THE DAY
WITH COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT ALLOWING QUICK DEVELOPMENT OF STRATOCU
WITH DAYTIME HEATING. FOR TEMPERATURES LEANED TOWARD COOLER MET
NUMBERS WITH EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014
BRIEF UPPER RIDGING WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND CONTINUED COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LOWS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL GET INTO
THE MID 30S IN PLACES AND WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE COULD SEE SOME FROST AROUND THE AREA. FOR NOW
PUT PATCHY FROST ANYWHERE LOWS WOULD GET BELOW 38 AND WILL NEED TO
MONITOR FOR ADVISORY POTENTIAL WITH UPCOMING FORECASTS.
ON THURSDAY NIGHT A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THAT WILL
BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AS WELL AS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A
LIGHT SHOWER ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 204 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014
DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THIS PERIOD AS ECMWF AND THE GFS BOTH
DEPICT A QUICK MOVING SHORT WAVE EXITING THE AREA EARLY ON FRIDAY
MORNING. A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BEFORE SLOWLY PROGRESSING EASTWARD
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE WILL ACCOMPANY THE RIDGE
ALOFT AND KEEP GENERALLY NORTHWEST TO WEST FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN DRY WEATHER
FOR CENTRAL INDIANA WITH TEMPERATURE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMALS.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 211500Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1008 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014
FOCUS OF UPDATE IS FOR KIND AND KLAF WHERE MVFR CEILINGS AND A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS MAKING MORE OF A PUSH SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.
ADDED VCSH AT BOTH SITES THROUGH 18-19Z WITH POSSIBILITY FOR
CEILINGS TO DROP TO 2000-2500FT PERIODICALLY AS WELL.
12Z DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
VFR STRATOCU PROGRESSING SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING AS ANOTHER WAVE ALOFT TRACKS THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES. SEEING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN INDIANA AS
WELL...AND ITS POSSIBLE SOME OF THESE SHOWERS MAY GET FAR ENOUGH
SOUTH TO BRIEFLY IMPACT KIND AND KLAF LATER THIS MORNING. WILL
MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST IN THE TERMINALS HOWEVER...WITH COVERAGE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SPARSE. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND RH PROGS SUGGEST
CEILINGS FALLING TO AROUND 3500FT FOR BULK OF THE DAY...ALTHOUGH
POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR CEILINGS TO BRIEFLY DIP TO MVFR AT KLAF.
SKIES WILL CLEAR THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER WAVE ROTATES AWAY TO
THE EAST AND A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS SOUTH INTO CENTRAL
INDIANA. NORTHERLY WINDS AT 10-15KTS TODAY WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND
5KTS TONIGHT AND VEER NORTHEAST.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...RYAN
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
850 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014
LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE CAROLINAS BY WEDNESDAY. SKIES WILL CLEAR ACROSS WESTERN AREAS
BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES HOLDING UNTIL TONIGHT
IN THE EAST. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 50S TODAY WITH LOWS TONIGHT
INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 850 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014
MIDLEVEL VORT MAX AND ASSOCIATED BROAD SURFACE TROUGH ARE CURRENTLY
PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE AREA. LATEST RADAR MOSAIC AND SURFACE OBS
INDICATE SEVERAL LOCATIONS ARE RECEIVING LIGHT...BUT MEASURABLE...
RAINFALL. PRECIP IS BEING FORCED BY MODEST DCVA AND LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE BUT IS ALSO BEING AIDED BY SOME LAKE INDUCED
INSTABILITY OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN. HAVE THEREFORE INCREASED POPS
FOR THE MORNING HOURS. STILL EXPECTING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS BY
THE AFTERNOON AS SHORTWAVE EXITS AND DRIER AIR IS ADVECTED SOUTH.
LATEST RAP AND HRRR SUPPORT THIS IDEA SO NO MAJOR CHANGES FOR THE
AFTERNOON PERIOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS. LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS AND LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH BY
LATE AFTERNOON AS FLOW BECOMES MORE N AND NE. WHILE SKIES WILL CLEAR
IN WESTERN AREAS LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT...CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER
LONGER AS CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS ACROSS EASTERN AREAS WITH SOME
CONTRIBUTION FROM LAKE HURON. THE RESULT WILL BE PARTLY IF NOT
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES LINGERING INTO TONIGHT ALONG/EAST OF I-69.
AS SKIES CLEAR...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO REBOUND SOMEWHAT BUT
WILL STILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
CLEARING IN THE WEST WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A COLD NIGHT WITH NE
FLOW USHERING IN DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 30S AND LOWS IN A SIMILAR
RANGE (LOW TO MID 30S). FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT WITH END OF
CLIMATOLOGICAL GROWING SEASON NO HEADLINES WILL BE ISSUED.
&&
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN THE PERIOD WILL MODERATE
TO NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO THE
EARLY PARTS NEXT WEEK.
ON TUESDAY...UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP INTO A CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS WILL PLACE LOCAL AREA INTO
UPPER LEVEL INFLECTION ZONE WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME STRATOCU
PERSISTING ACROSS MAINLY EASTERN LOCATIONS. MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES
BUILDING IN MORE AGGRESSIVELY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. SLOW PROGRESSION OF CLOSING OFF SYSTEM ACROSS
MID ATLANTIC WILL RESULT IN ONLY A VERY SLOW EASTWARD MIGRATION OF
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING...WHICH WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONE ANCHORED
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS SETUP SHOULD PROVIDE
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S...AND A FEW GOOD NIGHTS OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S (POSSIBLY LOWER 30S IN
COOL SPOTS). PER PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT SENT
YESTERDAY...FROST/FREZE HEADLINES HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR LOCAL
AREA DUE TO EFFECTIVE ENDING OF THE GROWING SEASON.
NEXT FEATURE OF INTEREST FOR THURSDAY WILL BE UPPER PV ANOMALY
APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL
DEFORMATION ASSOCIATED WITH SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD
ATTENUATE THIS PV ANOMALY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY RESULTING IN WANING UPPER FORCING.
NONETHELESS...ANOTHER NARROW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS WILL PRECEDE
THIS UPPER PV ANOMALY WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL WAA/MOISTURE ADVECTION AND
WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS OVERSPREADING THE AREA. NO CHANGE
NEEDED TO PREVIOUS SLIGHT CHANCE RAIN SHOWER POPS ACROSS THE WEST
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH LESSER CONFIDENCE ACROSS THE EAST DUE TO
WEAKENING NATURE OF UPPER PV ANOMALY.
UPPER RIDGE SHOULD EVENTUALLY GET PINCHED OFF FROM AFOREMENTIONED
TWO SYSTEMS...WITH RENEWED MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT RISES WORKING INTO
THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL MARK A MORE DISTINCT WARMING
TREND FOR SATURDAY/SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO INDICATE SOUTHEAST CANADIAN UPPER SHORT WAVE PROVIDING MORE
SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION PUSH ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES. ONLY ADJUSTMENT TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER
CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY...WITH A BIT SHARPER SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
GRADIENT IN MAX TEMPS ALTHOUGH STILL A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY IN
HOW FAR SOUTH STRONGER LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION IS ABLE TO PUSH
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
A SLIGHTLY FLATTER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN SHOULD SET UP EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH NEXT BROAD EASTERN PACIFIC WAVE BRINGING THE NEXT
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 646 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014
SCATTERED LIGHT LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS
MORNING WITH MARGINAL LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY. A SHEARED UPPER
LEVEL VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER JET STREAK WILL ALSO BE
SHIFTING SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION OVER NEXT SEVERAL HOURS PROVIDING
SOME SYNOPTIC ENHANCEMENT. MAY INCLUDE A TEMPO -SHRA MENTION FOR
KSBN WITH THE 12Z TAFS ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SHORT LIVED
2-3K FT CIGS. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY VFR STRATOCU TODAY...AND
SHOULD DIMINISH IN COVERAGE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING
AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA. NORTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL VEER TO THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON...AND
BECOME LIGHT NORTHEAST TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVERSPREADS
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AGD
SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...MARSILI
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
725 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014
AN UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST KEEPING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
SMALL SHOWER CHANCES AROUND TODAY BUT THEN ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD IN. ANOTHER UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
BRINGING SMALL SHOWER CHANCES BEFORE MORE STOUT UPPER RIDGING BUILDS
IN THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY BELOW NORMAL UNTIL FRIDAY
AND THEN WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL FOR A FEW DAYS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014
A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS MORNING ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE UPPER LOW AND COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND
EAST. HIGH UNCERTAINTY AND SMALL COVERAGE IF ANY SO KEPT TO A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING WITH PLACEMENT BASED ON THE HRRR
AND RUC OUTPUT. EXPECT SKIES TO BE MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR MOST OF THE DAY
WITH COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT ALLOWING QUICK DEVELOPMENT OF STRATOCU
WITH DAYTIME HEATING. FOR TEMPERATURES LEANED TOWARD COOLER MET
NUMBERS WITH EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014
BRIEF UPPER RIDGING WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND CONTINUED COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LOWS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL GET INTO
THE MID 30S IN PLACES AND WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE COULD SEE SOME FROST AROUND THE AREA. FOR NOW
PUT PATCHY FROST ANYWHERE LOWS WOULD GET BELOW 38 AND WILL NEED TO
MONITOR FOR ADVISORY POTENTIAL WITH UPCOMING FORECASTS.
ON THURSDAY NIGHT A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THAT WILL
BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AS WELL AS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A
LIGHT SHOWER ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 204 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014
DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THIS PERIOD AS ECMWF AND THE GFS BOTH
DEPICT A QUICK MOVING SHORT WAVE EXITING THE AREA EARLY ON FRIDAY
MORNING. A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BEFORE SLOWLY PROGRESSING EASTWARD
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE WILL ACCOMPANY THE RIDGE
ALOFT AND KEEP GENERALLY NORTHWEST TO WEST FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN DRY WEATHER
FOR CENTRAL INDIANA WITH TEMPERATURE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMALS.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 211200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 725 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
VFR STRATOCU PROGRESSING SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING AS ANOTHER WAVE ALOFT TRACKS THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES. SEEING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN INDIANA AS
WELL...AND ITS POSSIBLE SOME OF THESE SHOWERS MAY GET FAR ENOUGH
SOUTH TO BRIEFLY IMPACT KIND AND KLAF LATER THIS MORNING. WILL
MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST IN THE TERMINALS HOWEVER...WITH COVERAGE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SPARSE. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND RH PROGS SUGGEST
CEILINGS FALLING TO AROUND 3500FT FOR BULK OF THE DAY...ALTHOUGH
POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR CEILINGS TO BRIEFLY DIP TO MVFR AT KLAF.
SKIES WILL CLEAR THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER WAVE ROTATES AWAY TO
THE EAST AND A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS SOUTH INTO CENTRAL
INDIANA. NORTHERLY WINDS AT 10-15KTS TODAY WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND
5KTS TONIGHT AND VEER NORTHEAST.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...RYAN
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
912 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE TO THE
SOUTHEAST TODAY AND WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND
TONIGHT....BRINGING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN TO THE AREA. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE DRIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE FOR MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
9AM UPDATE...
HAVE ALTERED POP TO BETTER REFLECT TIMING OF PRECIPITATION AS IT
ARRIVES PRIMARILY THIS AFTERNOON. HRRR MODEL SEEMS TO BE HANDLING
THIS WELL. LONG STRETCH OF MOISTURE ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY IS SEEN TO BE EXTENDING ALL THE WAY FROM A TROPICAL LOW IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO UP THROUGH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND INTO OUR
REGION. THE STAGE IS BEING SET FOR A BIG PRECIPITATION EVENT.
COASTAL AREAS WILL LIKELY GET THE HEAVIER RAIN FIRST THIS EVENING
AS RAIN WRAPS IN FROM THE OCEAN AROUND A SURFACE LOW. HAVE MADE
SOME MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO QPF FORECAST BUT THIS DID NOT RESULT
IN SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
6AM UPDATE...
HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR THIS MORNING AS A FEW OF THE RAIN SHOWERS
ARE FINALLY MAKING IT THROUGH TO THE SURFACE. NOT EXPECTING
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION UNTIL LATER.
ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
LOW CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN NEW YORK WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARDS
THROUGH THE DAY... WITH THE SHOWERS CURRENTLY IN NY SPREADING
EASTWARDS ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD STEADY
IN THE 50S... THE CLASSIC COLD AIR DAMMING SIGNATURE IS EVIDENT IN
THE ISOBARS... SO EXPECT LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE COASTAL PLAIN... RESULTING IN COASTAL FRONT FORMATION. WARM
AIR ADVECTION FROM THE DEVELOPING CYCLONE WILL RESULT IN LIGHT
RAIN BY AFTERNOON... WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ALONG THE COASTAL
FRONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY/...
THE LOW WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND AND MOVE
NORTHEASTWARDS OVER THE BENCHMARK INTO THE GULF OF MAINE DURING
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. STEADY LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY AND NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INTENSIFY ALONG THE
COAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW DEEPENS. THE STRONGEST
DYNAMICS MOVE IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT SETTING UP FOR HEAVY RAIN.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOCUS IN THE EXTENDED IS IN THE EARLY PART...AS LOW PRESSURE FEEDS
MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT SURFACE AND UPPER LOW WILL
STACK AND DEEPEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS IS PROGGED
TO SEND A SIGNIFICANT SLUG OF PRECIPITATION INTO PARTS OF WESTERN
MAINE AND ADJACENT NEW HAMPSHIRE. OPERATIONAL MODELS...INCLUDING
THE ECMWF AND GFS...ARE FORECASTING 2 TO 4 INCHES TO FALL IN THE
SPAN FROM 00Z THU THROUGH 00Z FRI. WITH EASTERLY FLOW UPSLOPING
INTO THE MOUNTAINS AND COARSE MODEL RESOLUTION IT IS REASONABLE
TO ASSUME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
AT THE MOMENT THERE ARE A LOT OF FAVORABLE PARAMETERS FOR A HEAVY
RAINFALL EVENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE 21/00Z GEFS
FORECAST A -4 STANDARD DEVIATION 850 MB U WIND ANOMALY. SUCH A
SEASONABLY STRONG EASTERLY JET IS A STRONG SIGNAL FOR HEAVY
QPF...ESPECIALLY FOR THE EASTERN SLOPES. IN ADDITION...-3 STANDARD
DEVIATION 250 MB U WIND ANOMALIES SIGNAL THAT SLOW FORWARD
MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY. THIS IS NOTABLE CONSIDERING THE
OPERATION GFS IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE WHEN COMPARED TO THE 21/00Z
ECMWF. SREF MEAN QPF AT KPWM IS JUST ABOVE 3"...WITH A CLUSTER OF
MEMBERS NEAR 4". ECMWF ENSEMBLES ALSO SHOW NEARLY HALF OF THE 51
MEMBERS AT OR ABOVE 5" TOTAL QPF THRU THURSDAY. THAT BEING
SAID...SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST SOME DRY SLOT ISSUES WRAPPING
AROUND THE SYSTEM WHICH COULD SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT PRECIPITATION.
GIVEN THAT THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS STILL MORE THAN 48 HOURS
OUT...WOULD LIKE ANOTHER SUITE OF GUIDANCE BEFORE MAKING ANY
HEADLINE DECISIONS. WILL ALLOW THE DAY SHIFT TO REVIEW LATEST
GUIDANCE IN THIS CASE.
EVENTUALLY LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS OFF TOWARDS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. WEATHER WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED THOUGH...AS NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH RACES SE ACROSS CANADA AND DRIVES A COLD
FRONT THRU NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. THE UPPER LOW CROSSING THE AREA
WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS...AS ECMWF IS COOLER THAN THE
GFS...AND ONLY A DEGREE OR SO FROM BEING SNOW ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN TAKE CONTROL FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM... VFR CEILINGS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE MORNING...
BEFORE CEILINGS DESCEND ALONG THE COAST AS RAIN MOVES IN TONIGHT.
BY TONIGHT... IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST... WHILE
LEB AND HIE MAY REMAIN MVFR. WEDNESDAY WILL SEE ALL LOCATIONS
REMAIN IN IFR. LLWS WILL BE A CONCERN FOR PWM...RKD... AND PSM.
LONG TERM...IFR CONDITIONS PROBABLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THRU THURSDAY
IN RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES. COASTAL TERMINALS WILL SEE GUSTY NE
WINDS AT OR ABOVE 25 KTS AT TIMES. KHIE WILL ALSO SEE DOWNSLOPING
WINDS THAT COULD BE GUSTY AT TIMES FROM THE E. MVFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY LINGER THRU THE WEEKEND...WITH SCT SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...
WINDS/SEAS WILL BE CALM FOR TUESDAY..BEFORE BUILDING AHEAD OF THE
STORM TUESDAY NIGHT. SUSTAINED GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS FOR WEDNESDAY...WITH GUSTS TO GALE IN THE BAYS. SEAS WILL
BUILD TO 10 TO 12 FT IN PROLONGED NORTHEASTERLY FLOW.
LONG TERM...GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. SCA CONDITIONS WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY...BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL OF THE WATERS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY MID TO LATE WEEK.
MOST SMALL RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY HAVE SHARP RISES AS
WELL. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
MAINE AND THE NORTHEAST FACING HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN...MOSTLY 2-3 INCHES
QPF WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS APPROACHING 5 INCHES.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICALLY LOW TIDES WILL PREVENT WIDESPREAD COASTAL FLOODING
PROBLEMS... HOWEVER PROLONGED NORTHEASTERLY FLOW MAY RESULT IN
AROUND A 1 FT SURGE. COMBINED WITH 10FT WAVES THIS MAY CAUSE BEACH
EROSION AND SPLASHOVER... ESPECIALLY IN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND YORK
COUNTY MAINE.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM UPDATE... KIMBLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
701 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR BUFFALO WILL MOVE OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COAST LATER TODAY AND THEN REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH MID
WEEK...TRAPPED BY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
PORTION OF THE NATION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND EXTEND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH
THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...INCREASED POPS IN THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS BASED ON CURRENT
RADAR AND TRENDS. OTHERWISE NO BIG CHANGES.
ORIGINAL...THE COLD FRONT IS NOW PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA AND FOR
THE MOMENT...MOST OF THE RAIN IS EAST OF OHIO. MODELS SHOW THE
UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTH TODAY REACHING EASTERN LAKE ERIE BY 18Z
AND WESTERN PA BY 00Z. IN RESPONSE...THE HRRR SHOWS PRECIP
REDEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING WITH
HIGHEST COVERAGE AND GREATEST CONFIDENCE EAST THIRD TO HALF. WILL
HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS FROM CLEVELAND EAST AND TAPER DOWN TO SLIGHT
CHANCE FAR WEST. WITH CLOUDS...RAIN AND SOME COLD
ADVECTION...HIGHS WILL LIKELY NOT GET OUT OF THE LOW TO MID 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN PA TODAY REACHING NRN VA
TONIGHT BEFORE FINALLY MOVING OFF THE DELMARVA COAST WEDNESDAY. THE
LOW MOVES BACK NORTH INTO NEW ENGLAND FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
BASICALLY EASTERN OHIO AND NWRN PA WILL BE WITHIN THE CIRCULATION
OF THE SYSTEM TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SHORT WAVES ROTATING
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL COME TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY CHANCE POPS FOR NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA WEDNESDAY AS DEEPER MOISTURE PULLS EAST. THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AS VERY DRY AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
TEMPS BELOW NORMAL TO START...RISING TO NEAR NORMAL BY LATE WEEK.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF A COLD FRONT CLIPPING THE AREA
SAT OR EARLY SAT NIGHT IS LEADING TO UNCERTAINTY. FOR NOW WILL STAY
WITH SLIGHT CHC POPS. TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE A LITTLE MORE FOR
SAT...GETTING CLOSE TO NORMAL.
CONTINUE UNCERTAINTY FOR SUN DUE TO THE MODEL DIFFERENCES. WILL KEEP
THE FORECAST DRY WITH TEMPS SIMILAR TO SAT. MORE UPPER RIDGING FOR
MON AND A S TO SW FLOW SHOULD FINALLY LEAD TO A DAY OF TEMPS ABOVE
NORMAL. RIGHT NOW THE MODELS KEEP THE BETTER MOISTURE WEST OF THE
AREA SO WILL KEEP THE DAY DRY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MIX OF IFR/MVFR AND LOCAL VFR SHOULD SETTLE INTO A MORE UNIFORM MVFR
BY MIDDAY. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE LATE AFTERNOON THRU 06Z. SCT SHRA
WILL CONTINUE NEXT 24 HOURS AS UPPER LEVEL LOW STALLS JUST EAST OF
AREA BUT SHOULD SHIFT INTO MAINLY EAST HALF OF THE AREA. COLDER
TEMPS WILL ALSO ADD SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO THE SHRA.
WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KNOTS WILL BE LIKELY TODAY THEN SHOULD
GRADUALLY DECREASE EARLY TONIGHT.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR SHOULD SLOWLY SHIFT EAST WED THRU WED NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
THINK INCREASING NORTH WINDS WILL PRODUCE SCA CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF
THE LAKE TODAY THAT WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE INTO WED NIGHT AND MAYBE
EVEN INTO THU EVE AS THE WEATHER PATTERN SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE. HIGH
PRESSURE DOES FINALLY SPREAD UP THE OHIO VALLEY FRI AND SHOULD
DECREASE THE WINDS ENOUGH FOR WAVES TO BE BELOW 4 FEET.
THE MODELS DIFFER MORE FOR SAT SO THE STRENGTH AND AFFECTS OF A COLD
FRONT THAT MAY CROSS THE LAKE IS IN QUESTION. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW
SOME INCREASE IN A SW WIND BY SAT VEERING WEST BY THE END OF THE DAY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EDT
THURSDAY FOR LEZ142>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
635 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT CROSSES TODAY. LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS ALONG THE EAST COAST
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST THURSDAY. A WEAK FRONT POSSIBLE FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 06Z THE COLD FRONT IS JUST ABOUT INTO OUR FORECAST AREA AND
WILL RACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THERE ARE
ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. BY 16Z ACCORDING
TO THE HRRR EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS. THESE
SHOWERS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE. MODELS ARE
IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO AND EVEN INDICATE THERE
COULD BE A FEW ISOLATED RUMBLES OF THUNDER LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE BEST LOCATION FOR THUNDER WILL BE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
HAVE GONE ON THE LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY AND
TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WITH STUBBORN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FINALLY MOVING OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST ON WEDNESDAY...COLD NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL
AT THE SFC THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHILE BACKING FROM THE
NORTHWEST ALOFT BY THURSDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL THEN PIVOT NE
ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST ON THURSDAY.
A SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO PROVIDE PLENTY OF
CLEAR SKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...EXCEPT OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN MOUNTAINS. UNDER NORTHERLY WIND
COMPONENT...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE COLD SIDE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT.
MODELS SUGGEST THE COLDEST H850 TEMPERATURES...A POCKET OF
FREEZING AIR MASS...WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST OH...AWAY
FROM LINGERING PCPN OVER THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS KEEPING PCPN TYPE
LIQUID WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD. DECREASE A DEGREE OR TWO FOR
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY PER DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERALL...DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. PERIOD
STARTS OUT WITH A CLOSED LOW OFF TO THE NORTHEAST/CENTERED ALONG THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST...WITH A FEW CLOUDS...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN ZONES CLOSER TO VICINITY OF THE LOW. SEASONABLE...BUT
DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA WITH A W/NW FLOW.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY AN ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE LATER SATURDAY.
MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH EACH OF THESE FEATURES...AND EXPECTING
MOSTLY JUST AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...ALTHOUGH LIGHT
PRECIPITATION CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT. FOR NOW...MAINTAINED A
DRY FORECAST.
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES AROUND
TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND MVFR CIGS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH 13-14Z. CIGS WILL IMPROVE FOR A FEW HOURS BUT
EXPECT AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS BY 16Z AND MVFR CIGS ONCE AGAIN.
THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED -TSRA AREA WIDE FROM 19-22Z BUT WILL
ONLY INCLUDE AT KPKB AND KEKN. MVFR CIGS WILL STAY AROUND THROUGH
TONIGHT. KPKB...KEKN...KCKB SHOULD GO DOWN TO IFR AFTER O6Z.
W/NW WINDS LESS THAN 10KT EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY WITH HIGHER
GUSTS ALONG THE RIDGES. NW WINDS OVERNIGHT LESS THAN 5 KTS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND HOW LONG MVFR CONDITIONS COULD
LAST THIS MORNING. TIMING OF IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND THE
POSSIBILITY TI COULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
EDT 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
CRW CONSISTENCY H M L H H H M H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H L M H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M M H L H M M M M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H L L L L M H H H M M
CKB CONSISTENCY H M M M M H L L L H H H
AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR IN LOW STRATUS POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FB/ARJ
NEAR TERM...FB
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...FB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
616 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR BUFFALO WILL MOVE OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COAST LATER TODAY AND THEN REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH MID WEEK...TRAPPED
BY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF
THE NATION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY AND EXTEND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...INCREASED POPS IN THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS BASED ON CURRENT
RADAR AND TRENDS. OTHERWISE NO BIG CHANGES.
ORIGINAL...THE COLD FRONT IS NOW PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA AND FOR
THE MOMENT...MOST OF THE RAIN IS EAST OF OHIO. MODELS SHOW THE
UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTH TODAY REACHING EASTERN LAKE ERIE BY 18Z
AND WESTERN PA BY 00Z. IN RESPONSE...THE HRRR SHOWS PRECIP
REDEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING WITH
HIGHEST COVERAGE AND GREATEST CONFIDENCE EAST THIRD TO HALF. WILL
HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS FROM CLEVELAND EAST AND TAPER DOWN TO SLIGHT
CHANCE FAR WEST. WITH CLOUDS...RAIN AND SOME COLD
ADVECTION...HIGHS WILL LIKELY NOT GET OUT OF THE LOW TO MID 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN PA TODAY REACHING NRN VA
TONIGHT BEFORE FINALLY MOVING OFF THE DELMARVA COAST WEDNESDAY. THE
LOW MOVES BACK NORTH INTO NEW ENGLAND FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
BASICALLY EASTERN OHIO AND NWRN PA WILL BE WITHIN THE CIRCULATION
OF THE SYSTEM TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SHORT WAVES ROTATING
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL COME TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY CHANCE POPS FOR NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA WEDNESDAY AS DEEPER MOISTURE PULLS EAST. THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AS VERY DRY AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
TEMPS BELOW NORMAL TO START...RISING TO NEAR NORMAL BY LATE WEEK.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF A COLD FRONT CLIPPING THE AREA
SAT OR EARLY SAT NIGHT IS LEADING TO UNCERTAINTY. FOR NOW WILL STAY
WITH SLIGHT CHC POPS. TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE A LITTLE MORE FOR
SAT...GETTING CLOSE TO NORMAL.
CONTINUE UNCERTAINTY FOR SUN DUE TO THE MODEL DIFFERENCES. WILL KEEP
THE FORECAST DRY WITH TEMPS SIMILAR TO SAT. MORE UPPER RIDGING FOR
MON AND A S TO SW FLOW SHOULD FINALLY LEAD TO A DAY OF TEMPS ABOVE
NORMAL. RIGHT NOW THE MODELS KEEP THE BETTER MOISTURE WEST OF THE
AREA SO WILL KEEP THE DAY DRY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MIX OF IFR AND MVFR CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO DAYLIGHT THEN SHOW A
LITTLE IMPROVEMENT FROM 14 TO 18Z. TOL AND FDY MAY BE ABLE TO CARRY
VFR LEVELS DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT SITES FURTHER EAST WILL LIKELY
HANG ON TO MVFR. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE LATE AFTERNOON THRU 06Z. SCT
SHRA...MAINLY FROM CLE TO CAK EAST WILL CONTINUE NEXT 24 HOURS AS
UPPER LEVEL LOW STALLS JUST EAST OF AREA. COLDER TEMPS WILL ALSO ADD
SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO THE SHRA.
WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KNOTS WILL BE LIKELY TODAY THEN SHOULD
GRADUALLY DECREASE TONIGHT.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR SHOULD SLOWLY SHIFT EAST WED THRU WED NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
THINK INCREASING NORTH WINDS WILL PRODUCE SCA CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF
THE LAKE TODAY THAT WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE INTO WED NIGHT AND MAYBE
EVEN INTO THU EVE AS THE WEATHER PATTERN SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE. HIGH
PRESSURE DOES FINALLY SPREAD UP THE OHIO VALLEY FRI AND SHOULD
DECREASE THE WINDS ENOUGH FOR WAVES TO BE BELOW 4 FEET.
THE MODELS DIFFER MORE FOR SAT SO THE STRENGTH AND AFFECTS OF A COLD
FRONT THAT MAY CROSS THE LAKE IS IN QUESTION. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW
SOME INCREASE IN A SW WIND BY SAT VEERING WEST BY THE END OF THE DAY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EDT
THURSDAY FOR LEZ142>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1044 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND SPIN OFF
THE COAST AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST THIS WEEK. THE WIND
FLOW AROUND THE LOW WILL BRING GENERALLY COOL AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER TO THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE SLOWLY. BY THE END OF THE WEEK AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER MOST OF THE CONTINENTAL UNITED
STATES...AND LEAD TO DRY AND FAIR WEATHER WITH MILDER
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1030 AM UPDATE...
MINOR CHANGES TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND TO INFUSE
ADVANCED...TECHNOLOGICALLY-OBTAINED SOLUTIONS INTO THE NEAR-TERM
WITH REGARD TO POPS. MAXES SEEM ON TRACK...BUT COULD BE A DEG OR
TWO HIGHER IN THE SUNNIER SE. BUT THE CONVECTION WILL CLOG UP THE
SKY. SO WILL KEEP THEM AS IS. DID ADD JUST ISOLD T IN THE SE FOR
THE AFTN - AS MENTIONED BEFORE - DUE TO THE SUN/HEATING...COOLING
TEMPS ALOFT AND VISIBLE SHORT WAVE/FORCING.
9 AM UPDATE...
SHOWERS DISSIPATING OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE AREA...BUT ANOTHER
VORT MAX OVER THE NRN PART OF THE PBZ FCST AREA WILL BE SLIDING
INTO THE WEST LATE THIS MORNING. SUN STILL WORKING OFF THE FOG IN
THE SE. BUT THE PT/MO SUNNY CONDITIONS SHOULD LAST FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF THE DAY THERE. WITH THAT SUNSHINE AND THE APPCHG SHORT
WAVE EVIDENT OVER WRN PA...THE TEMPS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
UPRIGHT CONVECTION AND SCT/NMRS SHOWERS.
PREV...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A PAIR OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSES AT 09Z: 1)
DIGGING SWD THROUGH SRN ONTARIO (HELPING TO EVENTUALLY CARVE OUT
AND CLOSE OFF UPPER LOW) AND 2) ROTATING EWD THRU CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA. THE PA IMPULSE WILL CONTINUE SHIFT EWD THRU THE
MORNING AND MAINTAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY PRIMARILY OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL ALLEGHENIES...WHICH SHOULD BECOME
ENHANCED BY POST FRONTAL NW/UPSLOPE FLOW. LATEST HRRR CONFIRMS
THIS WHILE KEEPING MOST AREAS S/E OF THE I-99 CORRIDOR MAINLY DRY
THRU MID-LATE MORNING.
ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED
AND EVENTUALLY CLOSING OFF OVER PA BY THIS EVE/00Z.
MEANWHILE...SFC LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER BUFFALO NY WILL
TRANSFER ITS ENERGY TO COASTAL DEVELOPMENT NEAR OR JUST OFFSHORE
NJ AND THE DELMARVA. THE LATEST RAP SFC PRES FALLS ARE STARTING TO
SHOW THIS WITH -3 TO -4MB FALLS. DIFFERENCES START TO EMERGE IN
THE MODELS WITH THE SFC LOW TRACK/POSITION BY 22/12Z WITH THE
GFS/GEFS MEMBERS BEING WEST OF THE ECMWF/CMC ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.
RELATIVELY COOL AIR ALOFT ACCOMPANYING THE EVOLVING UPPER LEVEL
LOW WITH MID-LVL LAPSE RATES IN THE 6.5-7.0 C/KM RANGE...AND LG
SCALE LIFT GENERATED BY VORT MAXIMA PIVOTING OVER THE REGION
SHOULD PROMOTE INCREASED COVERAGE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY BY THE
AFTERNOON. HRRR SHOWS BULK OF SHOWERS OVER WRN PA THROUGH 18Z WITH
DEVELOPING SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL AND ERN SECTIONS LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE MODEL GUIDANCE PROGS WEAK INSTABILITY /CAPES
GENERALLY AOB 300 J/KG/ ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SERN ZONES
WHICH...WHEN COUPLED WITH THE STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES...MAY
PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW ISOLATED/EMBEDDED LOW-TOPPED TSTMS
TO FORM WITHIN A BROADER AREA OF SCT TO NMRS SHOWERS.
MAIN CHANGE TO DAY 1 MAX/MIN TEMPS WAS TO RAISE OVERNIGHT LOWS
GIVEN PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND 5-10KT SUSTAINED N-NW WINDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW PIVOTING
AND WRAPPING NWWD THROUGH 12Z THURS WITH SFC LOW BECOMING NEARLY
STACKED ABOUT 100-200 MILES SSE OF LONG ISLAND. THERE CONTINUES TO
BE SOME PLACEMENT ISSUES WITH THE SFC LOW WITH THE 00Z GFS/GEFS
AND 21Z SREF ALL REASONABLY WELL CLUSTERED. THE PREVIOUS TWO RUNS
OF THE ECMWF ARE SOUTH OF THIS CONSENSUS WITH THE 00Z NAM/CMC TO
THE EAST. A SUPERBLEND OF OP/ENS/WPC QPF SHOWS THE HIGHEST POPS
OVER THE ERN 1/3 OF THE CWA EARLY WED NEAR POSSIBLE ZONE OF WRAP-
AROUND PCPN...BEFORE TRENDING LOWER WED NGT INTO THURS. IT WILL
FEEL RATHER RAW WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND A CHILLY/GUSTY NLY WIND.
A 50/50 BLEND OF CONSENSUS AND BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS GUIDANCE
YIELDED SLIGHTLY LOWER DAYTIME HIGHS AND WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS.
THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD WILL START WITH THE NEW ENGLAND COASTAL STORM LIFTING
SLOWLY NEWD ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
THU INTO SAT. THIS LOW WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF CHILLY WRAP-AROUND
RAINS IN THE FCST FOR DAY 3 POSSIBLY INTO DAY 4 DEPENDING ON HOW
FAST THE STORM LIFTS OUT. THE KEY HERE LKLY LIES UPSTREAM WITH
STRONG SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO NRN CA. THIS ENERGY IS
EXPECTED TO SPLIT OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH NRN STREAM ENERGY
PROJECTED TO DIG SEWD THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS AND MOVE OFF THE
EAST COAST BY SAT NGT. THE 00Z NON NCEP DATA WANTS TO HANG ONTO
THE NW FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM A LITTLE LONGER THAN THE
GFS/GEFS WHICH SHOW SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. THIS SEEMS DUE TO MORE PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING
SEWD ACRS SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES DOWN THE
FRONT-SIDE OF A SUBTROPCIAL RIDGE MIGRATING EWD FROM AZ/NM INTO
TX. WITH THE FLOW ALOFT FCST TO TREND TOWARD LESS AMPLIFICATION
AND SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE IN TIME WITH A BROAD BELT OF
WESTERLIES EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC COAST INTO THE NATIONS
MIDSECTION...THE DOWNSTREAM PATTERN SHOULD EVENTUALLY UNDERGO SOME
RECONFIGURATION. THIS SHOULD SEND HEIGHTS RISING WHICH WOULD
SUPPORT MILDER TEMP TREND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THAT BEING
SAID...WITH THE PATTERN RECONFIGURATION TIED TO SMALLER SCALE
DISTURBANCES WHICH TEND TO BE RATHER NOISY AT THESE RANGES...THE
EVOLUTION OF THE CHANGE IN FLOW IS LIKELY TO BE HANDLED
DIFFERENTLY IN UPCOMING MODEL AND ENSEMBLE CYCLES.
THE TAKEHOME MESSAGE: WEATHER CONDITIONS LKLY TRENDING DRIER AND
MILDER FROM THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FOG LIFTING...BUT JST IS SUNK WITH THE UPSLOPE FLOW AND STRONG
VORT MAX/SHORT WAVE APPCHG FROM THE WNW. EXPECT ONLY SLOW
IMPROVEMENT THERE.
BY LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON...SHOWERS WILL BE MORE
SCATTERED IN NATURE...AND MUCH OF THE AREA EAST OF THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS WILL BE VFR. AS THE LOW DEEPENS OFF THE EAST COAST
LATER TODAY...LOWER CIGS AND SHOWERS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD LATE.
THE AIRMASS WILL BE QUITE COLD ALOFT TODAY...THUS ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR MDT/LNS AND PERHAPS AS FAR N
AS IPT. OTHER AREAS WILLLIKELY STAY TOO CLOUDY FOR FREE
CONVECTION. NOT LOOKING AT REAL STRONG WINDS TODAY. HOWEVER...WINDS
WILL PICK UP SOME TONIGHT AS THE PGRAD TIGHTENS.
THE SFC AND UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL KEEP CLOUDY...BREEZY...AND AT
TIMES WET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA INTO THU.
EXPECT SOME IMPROVEMENT ON THURS/FRIDAY...AS THE SYSTEM SLOWLY
WORKS EASTWARD.
OUTLOOK...
WED-FRI...LOW CIGS POSS W MTNS...MAINLY AT NIGHT/EARLY AM.
SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...DANGELO/MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
951 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND SPIN OFF
THE COAST AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST THIS WEEK. THE WIND
FLOW AROUND THE LOW WILL BRING GENERALLY COOL AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER TO THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE SLOWLY. BY THE END OF THE WEEK AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER MOST OF THE CONTINENTAL UNITED
STATES...AND LEAD TO DRY AND FAIR WEATHER WITH MILDER
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
9 AM UPDATE...
SHOWERS DISSIPATING OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE AREA...BUT ANOTHER
VORT MAX OVER THE NRN PART OF THE PBZ FCST AREA WILL BE SLIDING
INTO THE WEST LATE THIS MORNING. SUN STILL WORKING OFF THE FOG IN
THE SE. BUT THE PT/MO SUNNY CONDITIONS SHOULD LAST FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF THE DAY THERE. WITH THAT SUNSHINE AND THE APPCHG SHORT
WAVE EVIDENT OVER WRN PA...THE TEMPS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
UPRIGHT CONVECTION AND SCT/NMRS SHOWERS.
PREV...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A PAIR OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSES AT 09Z: 1)
DIGGING SWD THROUGH SRN ONTARIO (HELPING TO EVENTUALLY CARVE OUT
AND CLOSE OFF UPPER LOW) AND 2) ROTATING EWD THRU CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA. THE PA IMPULSE WILL CONTINUE SHIFT EWD THRU THE
MORNING AND MAINTAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY PRIMARILY OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL ALLEGHENIES...WHICH SHOULD BECOME
ENHANCED BY POST FRONTAL NW/UPSLOPE FLOW. LATEST HRRR CONFIRMS
THIS WHILE KEEPING MOST AREAS S/E OF THE I-99 CORRIDOR MAINLY DRY
THRU MID-LATE MORNING.
ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED
AND EVENTUALLY CLOSING OFF OVER PA BY THIS EVE/00Z.
MEANWHILE...SFC LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER BUFFALO NY WILL
TRANSFER ITS ENERGY TO COASTAL DEVELOPMENT NEAR OR JUST OFFSHORE
NJ AND THE DELMARVA. THE LATEST RAP SFC PRES FALLS ARE STARTING TO
SHOW THIS WITH -3 TO -4MB FALLS. DIFFERENCES START TO EMERGE IN
THE MODELS WITH THE SFC LOW TRACK/POSITION BY 22/12Z WITH THE
GFS/GEFS MEMBERS BEING WEST OF THE ECMWF/CMC ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.
RELATIVELY COOL AIR ALOFT ACCOMPANYING THE EVOLVING UPPER LEVEL
LOW WITH MID-LVL LAPSE RATES IN THE 6.5-7.0 C/KM RANGE...AND LG
SCALE LIFT GENERATED BY VORT MAXIMA PIVOTING OVER THE REGION
SHOULD PROMOTE INCREASED COVERAGE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY BY THE
AFTERNOON. HRRR SHOWS BULK OF SHOWERS OVER WRN PA THROUGH 18Z WITH
DEVELOPING SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL AND ERN SECTIONS LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE MODEL GUIDANCE PROGS WEAK INSTABILITY /CAPES
GENERALLY AOB 300 J/KG/ ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SERN ZONES
WHICH...WHEN COUPLED WITH THE STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES...MAY
PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW ISOLATED/EMBEDDED LOW-TOPPED TSTMS
TO FORM WITHIN A BROADER AREA OF SCT TO NMRS SHOWERS.
MAIN CHANGE TO DAY 1 MAX/MIN TEMPS WAS TO RAISE OVERNIGHT LOWS
GIVEN PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND 5-10KT SUSTAINED N-NW WINDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW PIVOTING
AND WRAPPING NWWD THROUGH 12Z THURS WITH SFC LOW BECOMING NEARLY
STACKED ABOUT 100-200 MILES SSE OF LONG ISLAND. THERE CONTINUES TO
BE SOME PLACEMENT ISSUES WITH THE SFC LOW WITH THE 00Z GFS/GEFS
AND 21Z SREF ALL REASONABLY WELL CLUSTERED. THE PREVIOUS TWO RUNS
OF THE ECMWF ARE SOUTH OF THIS CONSENSUS WITH THE 00Z NAM/CMC TO
THE EAST. A SUPERBLEND OF OP/ENS/WPC QPF SHOWS THE HIGHEST POPS
OVER THE ERN 1/3 OF THE CWA EARLY WED NEAR POSSIBLE ZONE OF WRAP-
AROUND PCPN...BEFORE TRENDING LOWER WED NGT INTO THURS. IT WILL
FEEL RATHER RAW WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND A CHILLY/GUSTY NLY WIND.
A 50/50 BLEND OF CONSENSUS AND BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS GUIDANCE
YIELDED SLIGHTLY LOWER DAYTIME HIGHS AND WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS.
THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD WILL START WITH THE NEW ENGLAND COASTAL STORM LIFTING
SLOWLY NEWD ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
THU INTO SAT. THIS LOW WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF CHILLY WRAP-AROUND
RAINS IN THE FCST FOR DAY 3 POSSIBLY INTO DAY 4 DEPENDING ON HOW
FAST THE STORM LIFTS OUT. THE KEY HERE LKLY LIES UPSTREAM WITH
STRONG SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO NRN CA. THIS ENERGY IS
EXPECTED TO SPLIT OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH NRN STREAM ENERGY
PROJECTED TO DIG SEWD THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS AND MOVE OFF THE
EAST COAST BY SAT NGT. THE 00Z NON NCEP DATA WANTS TO HANG ONTO
THE NW FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM A LITTLE LONGER THAN THE
GFS/GEFS WHICH SHOW SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. THIS SEEMS DUE TO MORE PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING
SEWD ACRS SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES DOWN THE
FRONT-SIDE OF A SUBTROPCIAL RIDGE MIGRATING EWD FROM AZ/NM INTO
TX. WITH THE FLOW ALOFT FCST TO TREND TOWARD LESS AMPLIFICATION
AND SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE IN TIME WITH A BROAD BELT OF
WESTERLIES EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC COAST INTO THE NATIONS
MIDSECTION...THE DOWNSTREAM PATTERN SHOULD EVENTUALLY UNDERGO SOME
RECONFIGURATION. THIS SHOULD SEND HEIGHTS RISING WHICH WOULD
SUPPORT MILDER TEMP TREND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THAT BEING
SAID...WITH THE PATTERN RECONFIGURATION TIED TO SMALLER SCALE
DISTURBANCES WHICH TEND TO BE RATHER NOISY AT THESE RANGES...THE
EVOLUTION OF THE CHANGE IN FLOW IS LIKELY TO BE HANDLED
DIFFERENTLY IN UPCOMING MODEL AND ENSEMBLE CYCLES.
THE TAKEHOME MESSAGE: WEATHER CONDITIONS LKLY TRENDING DRIER AND
MILDER FROM THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FOG LIFTING...BUT JST IS SUNK WITH THE UPSLOPE FLOW AND STRONG
VORT MAX/SHORT WAVE APPCHG FROM THE WNW. EXPECT ONLY SLOW
IMPROVEMENT THERE.
BY LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON...SHOWERS WILL BE MORE
SCATTERED IN NATURE...AND MUCH OF THE AREA EAST OF THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS WILL BE VFR. AS THE LOW DEEPENS OFF THE EAST COAST
LATER TODAY...LOWER CIGS AND SHOWERS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD LATE.
THE AIRMASS WILL BE QUITE COLD ALOFT TODAY...THUS ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR MDT/LNS AND PERHAPS AS FAR N
AS IPT. OTHER AREAS WILLLIKELY STAY TOO CLOUDY FOR FREE
CONVECTION. NOT LOOKING AT REAL STRONG WINDS TODAY. HOWEVER...WINDS
WILL PICK UP SOME TONIGHT AS THE PGRAD TIGHTENS.
THE SFC AND UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL KEEP CLOUDY...BREEZY...AND AT
TIMES WET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA INTO THU.
EXPECT SOME IMPROVEMENT ON THURS/FRIDAY...AS THE SYSTEM SLOWLY
WORKS EASTWARD.
OUTLOOK...
WED-FRI...LOW CIGS POSS W MTNS...MAINLY AT NIGHT/EARLY AM.
SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
744 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE EVOLVING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES WILL CONTINUE TO BRING COOL AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH MID-WEEK. SLOWLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH MILDER WEATHER
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A PAIR OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSES AT 09Z: 1)
DIGGING SWD THROUGH SRN ONTARIO (HELPING TO EVENTUALLY CARVE OUT
AND CLOSE OFF UPPER LOW) AND 2) ROTATING EWD THRU CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA. THE PA IMPULSE WILL CONTINUE SHIFT EWD THRU THE
MORNING AND MAINTAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY PRIMARILY OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL ALLEGHENIES...WHICH SHOULD BECOME
ENHANCED BY POST FRONTAL NW/UPSLOPE FLOW. LATEST HRRR CONFIRMS
THIS WHILE KEEPING MOST AREAS S/E OF THE I-99 CORRIDOR MAINLY DRY
THRU MID-LATE MORNING.
ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED
AND EVENTUALLY CLOSING OFF OVER PA BY THIS EVE/00Z.
MEANWHILE...SFC LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER BUFFALO NY WILL
TRANSFER ITS ENERGY TO COASTAL DEVELOPMENT NEAR OR JUST OFFSHORE
NJ AND THE DELMARVA. THE LATEST RAP SFC PRES FALLS ARE STARTING TO
SHOW THIS WITH -3 TO -4MB FALLS. DIFFERENCES START TO EMERGE IN
THE MODELS WITH THE SFC LOW TRACK/POSITION BY 22/12Z WITH THE
GFS/GEFS MEMBERS BEING WEST OF THE ECMWF/CMC ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.
RELATIVELY COOL AIR ALOFT ACCOMPANYING THE EVOLVING UPPER LEVEL
LOW WITH MID-LVL LAPSE RATES IN THE 6.5-7.0 C/KM RANGE...AND LG
SCALE LIFT GENERATED BY VORT MAXIMA PIVOTING OVER THE REGION
SHOULD PROMOTE INCREASED COVERAGE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY BY THE
AFTERNOON. HRRR SHOWS BULK OF SHOWERS OVER WRN PA THROUGH 18Z WITH
DEVELOPING SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL AND ERN SECTIONS LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE MODEL GUIDANCE PROGS WEAK INSTABILITY /CAPES
GENERALLY AOB 300 J/KG/ ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SERN ZONES
WHICH...WHEN COUPLED WITH THE STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES...MAY
PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW ISOLATED/EMBEDDED LOW-TOPPED TSTMS
TO FORM WITHIN A BROADER AREA OF SCT TO NMRS SHOWERS.
MAIN CHANGE TO DAY 1 MAX/MIN TEMPS WAS TO RAISE OVERNIGHT LOWS
GIVEN PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND 5-10KT SUSTAINED N-NW WINDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW PIVOTING
AND WRAPPING NWWD THROUGH 12Z THURS WITH SFC LOW BECOMING NEARLY
STACKED ABOUT 100-200 MILES SSE OF LONG ISLAND. THERE CONTINUES TO
BE SOME PLACEMENT ISSUES WITH THE SFC LOW WITH THE 00Z GFS/GEFS
AND 21Z SREF ALL REASONABLY WELL CLUSTERED. THE PREVIOUS TWO RUNS
OF THE ECMWF ARE SOUTH OF THIS CONSENSUS WITH THE 00Z NAM/CMC TO
THE EAST. A SUPERBLEND OF OP/ENS/WPC QPF SHOWS THE HIGHEST POPS
OVER THE ERN 1/3 OF THE CWA EARLY WED NEAR POSSIBLE ZONE OF WRAP-
AROUND PCPN...BEFORE TRENDING LOWER WED NGT INTO THURS. IT WILL
FEEL RATHER RAW WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND A CHILLY/GUSTY NLY WIND.
A 50/50 BLEND OF CONSENSUS AND BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS GUIDANCE
YIELDED SLIGHTLY LOWER DAYTIME HIGHS AND WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS.
THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD WILL START WITH THE NEW ENGLAND COASTAL STORM LIFTING
SLOWLY NEWD ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
THU INTO SAT. THIS LOW WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF CHILLY WRAP-AROUND
RAINS IN THE FCST FOR DAY 3 POSSIBLY INTO DAY 4 DEPENDING ON HOW
FAST THE STORM LIFTS OUT. THE KEY HERE LKLY LIES UPSTREAM WITH
STRONG SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO NRN CA. THIS ENERGY IS
EXPECTED TO SPLIT OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH NRN STREAM ENERGY
PROJECTED TO DIG SEWD THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS AND MOVE OFF THE
EAST COAST BY SAT NGT. THE 00Z NON NCEP DATA WANTS TO HANG ONTO
THE NW FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM A LITTLE LONGER THAN THE
GFS/GEFS WHICH SHOW SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. THIS SEEMS DUE TO MORE PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING
SEWD ACRS SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES DOWN THE
FRONT-SIDE OF A SUBTROPCIAL RIDGE MIGRATING EWD FROM AZ/NM INTO
TX. WITH THE FLOW ALOFT FCST TO TREND TOWARD LESS AMPLIFICATION
AND SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE IN TIME WITH A BROAD BELT OF
WESTERLIES EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC COAST INTO THE NATIONS
MIDSECTION...THE DOWNSTREAM PATTERN SHOULD EVENTUALLY UNDERGO SOME
RECONFIGURATION. THIS SHOULD SEND HEIGHTS RISING WHICH WOULD
SUPPORT MILDER TEMP TREND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THAT BEING
SAID...WITH THE PATTERN RECONFIGURATION TIED TO SMALLER SCALE
DISTURBANCES WHICH TEND TO BE RATHER NOISY AT THESE RANGES...THE
EVOLUTION OF THE CHANGE IN FLOW IS LIKELY TO BE HANDLED
DIFFERENTLY IN UPCOMING MODEL AND ENSEMBLE CYCLES.
THE TAKEHOME MESSAGE: WEATHER CONDITIONS LKLY TRENDING DRIER AND
MILDER FROM THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO 12Z TAF PACKAGE.
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
KEEP SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF CENTRAL PA
THIS MORNING. MOST OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS ACROSS THE SUSQUEHANNA
VALLEY HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE AREA. THE MAIN PROBLEM WILL BE LOW
CIGS IN SPOTS...MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR WEST. VISIBILITIES IN MOST
LOCATIONS ARE STILL GOOD.
BY LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON...SHOWERS WILL BE MORE
SCATTERED IN NATURE...AND MUCH OF THE AREA EAST OF THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS WILL BE VFR.
AS THE LOW REFORMS OFF THE EAST COAST LATER TODAY...LOWER CIGS
AND SHOWERS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD LATE.
THE AIRMASS WILL BE QUITE COLD ALOFT TODAY...THUS ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
NOT LOOKING AT REAL STRONG WINDS TODAY.
HOWEVER...AS THE LOW REFORMS OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT...WINDS
WILL PICK UP SOME.
THE SFC AND UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL KEEP CLOUDY...BREEZY...AND AT
TIMES WET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA INTO THU.
EXPECT SOME IMPROVEMENT ON FRIDAY...AS THE SYSTEM SLOWLY WORKS
EASTWARD.
OUTLOOK...
WED-FRI...LOW CIGS POSS W MTNS...MAINLY AT NIGHT/EARLY AM.
SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
612 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014
THE LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ONTARIO AND A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS RUNNING
SOUTHWEST OVER THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL PLAINS.
EAST OF THE RIDGE AXIS...NORTH TO NORTH NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES
OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE COMBO OF UNSTABLE CONDITIONS OVER
LAKE SUPERIOR AND THERMAL TROUGHING ARE CONTRIBUTING TO WIDESPREAD
STRATO-CU ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF WISCONSIN. AREA OBS ARE
STILL REPORTING SPOTTY SPRINKLES. FURTHER NORTH...DRIER AIR IS
WORKING SOUTHWARD OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. LOOKING UPSTREAM...A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXITS OVER THE CENTRAL OF THE CONTINENT WHICH IS
LEADING TO CLEAR AND QUIET CONDITIONS. FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE
CLOUDS TRENDS TODAY FOLLOWED BY TEMPS.
TODAY...NOT AN EASY CLOUD FORECAST TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
BUILD SOUTHWARD OUT OF ONTARIO...BUT 925MB THERMAL TROUGHING AND
NORTH TO NNE FLOW CONTINUE OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH LOWERING
INVERSION HEIGHTS AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...THINK
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO HANG AROUND OVER N-C AND MOST OF EASTERN
WISCONSIN THROUGH THE MID-MORNING HOURS. BUT WITH DAYTIME
HEATING...MIXING SHOULD TAP INTO THE VERY DRY AIR ABOVE THE
INVERSION WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO RAPID CLEARING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
THE EXCEPTION WILL LIKELY BE THE LAKESHORE WHERE NNE WINDS WILL KEEP
LAKE CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S.
TONIGHT...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THIS INCOMING AIRMASS WILL BE VERY DRY...WITH
PWATS UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...SHOULD HAVE NEARLY IDEAL RADIATIVE COOLING CONDITIONS.
DROPPED LOW TEMPERATURES BELOW THE COLDEST GUIDANCE. LOWS IN THE
LOWER 20S WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS N-C WISCONSIN. MAINLY MID 20S TO
LOW 30S EVERYWHERE ELSE.
WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN THE
AFTERNOON BUT WILL BE TOO FAR WEST FOR ANY IMPACT ON OUR SENSIBLE
WEATHER. SO SHOULD SEE ANOTHER DAY OF PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. LOW
INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL PREVENT MUCH MIXING. SO EXPECT SEASONABLE
TEMPS IN THE LOWER 50S.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014
UPPER RIDGE OVER WISCONSIN AND ILLINOIS GETS DAMPENED
AND PUSHED TO THE EAST AS AN UPPER TROUGH DROPS TOWARDS WISCONSIN
FROM CENTRAL CANADA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT APPROACHES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN
MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY WHILE A WAVE MOVES TO
THE NORTH ALONG THE FRONT. THE MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE SHOWERS BUT THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES IN HOW QUICKLY IT EXITS. MOST PLACES SHOULD GET SOME
SHOWER ACTIVITY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING BUT AMOUNTS LOOK TO
BE MODEST AND AROUND A QUARTER TO HALF INCH. AFTER THAT UPPER FLOW
BECOMES NORTHWEST WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNDAY. RISING UPPER HEIGHTS SHOULD BRING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES STARTING ON FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 612 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014
VERY DRY AIR SURGING SOUTHWARD OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL HELP THE
BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATO-CU TO GRADUALLY BREAK UP LATER THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ONSHORE FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN
WILL LIKELY KEEP AT LEAST SCT COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ALONG
THE SHORELINE. THEN CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......MPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FLAGSTAFF AZ
945 AM MST TUE OCT 21 2014
.SYNOPSIS...THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS
THROUGH TODAY...MAINLY OVER EASTERN ARIZONA. DRIER AIR ARRIVES
TONIGHT WITH A WARMING TREND DEVELOPING FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...MENTION OF SHOWERS FOR THE AM HOURS TODAY WAS REMOVED.
LEFT PRECIP CHC`S FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS IS. ONE CAVEAT FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS NO. AZ TODAY...ON
SATELLITE MAY BE 3-4 HOURS FASTER THAN WHAT MODELS ARE CURRENTLY
ADVERTISING. THE HRRR RUN MAY BE CATCHING UP ON THIS AND INDICATING
NO SHOWERS FOR THE COCONINO PLATEAU...WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM...AND
PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM. LOOKS LIKE THE CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAYBE CONFINED MORE TO NAVAJO AND APACHE
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. WILL WATCH FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS TO
DETERMINE IF WE NEED TO CUT BACK ON PRECIP CHC`S OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF NO. AZ.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /350 AM MST/...A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN GREAT BASIN WILL PUSH A DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA BY
THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...LINGERING MOISTURE MAY STILL BE
DEEP ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY EAST OF FLAGSTAFF. DRIER AIR WILL TRAIL THE
FRONT TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL FINALLY
END. RISING HGHTS WILL PRODUCE A WARMING TREND FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEKEND. MODELS ARE HINTING
AT A FAIRLY STRONG FRONT BY SUNDAY OR MONDAY...BUT DETAILS ARE
SKETCHY. FOR NOW...WE HAVE INDICATED A COOLING TREND AND AT LEAST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS RETURNING TO THE AREA BY SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...VFR FOR MOST OF THE AREA FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. RESIDUAL MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW WIDELY SCT
-SHRA/-TSRA BTWN 18Z TUE-02Z WEDS EAST OF A KPRC-KGCN LINE WITH
CLOUD BASES AOA 11KFT MSL AND LCL CIGS AT 3KFT AGL ALONG THE
MOGOLLON RIM. CLEARING SKIES AFT 03Z WEDS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC.........TC/PETERSON
AVIATION.......MAS
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
910 AM MST TUE OCT 21 2014
.SYNOPSIS...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF
TUCSON INTO THIS EVENING. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING DRY
CONDITIONS THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK ALONG WITH MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES. NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE IN SOME
LOCATIONS THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...WEAK UPPER LOW OVER SWRN NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING WILL
FILL AND MOVE EASTWARD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO BY THIS
EVENING. THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS GREENLEE...GRAHAM AND COCHISE
COUNTIES FROM LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS EVENING. THE BULK OF THESE
SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOULD BE CONFINED MAINLY NEAR THE MOUNTAINS AS PER
THE RUC HRRR. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT NEAR
THE NEW MEXICO BORDER.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL THEN AMPLIFY OVER THE SWRN CONUS WED-FRI.
THE UPPER HIGH WILL THEN MOVE EAST OF THE AREA SAT IN RESPONSE TO A
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ENTERING THE WEST COAST. INCREASING HEIGHTS/
THICKNESSES WILL SUPPORT A STRONG WARMING TREND...WITH RECORD OR
NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPS THUR-SAT. ASSUMING PROGGED 850-700 MB
THICKNESSES AROUND 165.5 DM TO BE REALITY...HIGH TEMPS WILL AVERAGE
ABOUT 9-12 DEGS F OR SO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. SATURDAY MAY VERY WELL
BE THE WARMEST DAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.
THEREAFTER...A PRONOUNCED COOLING TREND IS ON TAP SUN-MON GIVEN
HEIGHT/THICKNESS FALLS AS THE WEST COAST TROUGH MOVES EWD INTO THE
CENTRAL/SRN ROCKIES.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 22/18Z.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED -TSRA/-SHRA WILL OCCUR EAST OF KTUS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN OCCUR AREA-WIDE LATE
TONIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY MORNING. CLOUD DECKS KTUS VICINITY EASTWARD
LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS EVENING WILL BE AT 6-10K FT AGL...THEN
CLEAR SKIES TO SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND 10K FT AGL LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES TO SCATTERED CLOUDS ABOVE 20K
FT AGL WEST OF KTUS THRU WEDNESDAY MORNING. SURFACE WIND WILL BE
LESS THAN 10 KTS THRU WEDNESDAY MORNING. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING EAST OF TUCSON. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. 20-FOOT
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE TERRAIN DRIVEN AND LESS THAN 15 MPH THIS
WEEK.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
FRANCIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
212 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014
.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014
AN UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST KEEPING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
SMALL SHOWER CHANCES AROUND TODAY BUT THEN ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD IN. ANOTHER UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
BRINGING SMALL SHOWER CHANCES BEFORE MORE STOUT UPPER RIDGING BUILDS
IN THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY BELOW NORMAL UNTIL FRIDAY
AND THEN WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL FOR A FEW DAYS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1026 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014
PUSHED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH AS LAKE ENHANCED
SHOWERS ARE SURVIVING WELL INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. DOUBT THESE WILL
AMOUNT TO MUCH MORE THAN SPRINKLES...OR MAYBE A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS
AT BEST. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014
A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS MORNING ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE UPPER LOW AND COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND
EAST. HIGH UNCERTAINTY AND SMALL COVERAGE IF ANY SO KEPT TO A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING WITH PLACEMENT BASED ON THE HRRR
AND RUC OUTPUT. EXPECT SKIES TO BE MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR MOST OF THE DAY
WITH COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT ALLOWING QUICK DEVELOPMENT OF STRATOCU
WITH DAYTIME HEATING. FOR TEMPERATURES LEANED TOWARD COOLER MET
NUMBERS WITH EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014
BRIEF UPPER RIDGING WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND CONTINUED COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LOWS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL GET INTO
THE MID 30S IN PLACES AND WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE COULD SEE SOME FROST AROUND THE AREA. FOR NOW
PUT PATCHY FROST ANYWHERE LOWS WOULD GET BELOW 38 AND WILL NEED TO
MONITOR FOR ADVISORY POTENTIAL WITH UPCOMING FORECASTS.
ON THURSDAY NIGHT A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THAT WILL
BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AS WELL AS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A
LIGHT SHOWER ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 211 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG TERM PRODUCING DRY WEATHER OVER
CENTRAL INDIANA. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. NEXT POSSIBLE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH
THE AREA NEXT MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...AT THIS JUNCTURE ENSEMBLE MOISTURE
FIELDS LOOK VERY DRY SO LEFT IN ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS.
OTHERWISE NO CHANGES MADE TO THE SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 211800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1252 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
VFR STRATOCU CURRENTLY ENCOMPASSING THE FORECAST AREA AS ANOTHER
WAVE ALOFT TRACKS THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. STILL SEEING A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN INDIANA...AND IT/S STILL POSSIBLE
SOME OF THESE SHOWERS MAY GET FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO BRIEFLY IMPACT
KIND AND KLAF FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND HAVE MENTIONED VCSH FOR
THIS WITH NO VIS RESTRICTIONS. OTHERWISE WILL MAINTAIN A DRY
FORECAST. SKIES WILL CLEAR THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER WAVE
ROTATES AWAY TO THE EAST AND A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS
SOUTH INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. NORTHERLY WINDS AT 10-15KTS TODAY WILL
DIMINISH TO AROUND 5 KTS TONIGHT AND VEER NORTHEAST.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP/NIELD
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...SMF
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
126 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014
LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE CAROLINAS BY WEDNESDAY. SKIES WILL CLEAR ACROSS WESTERN AREAS
BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES HOLDING UNTIL TONIGHT
IN THE EAST. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 50S TODAY WITH LOWS TONIGHT
INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 850 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014
MIDLEVEL VORT MAX AND ASSOCIATED BROAD SURFACE TROUGH ARE CURRENTLY
PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE AREA. LATEST RADAR MOSAIC AND SURFACE OBS
INDICATE SEVERAL LOCATIONS ARE RECEIVING LIGHT...BUT MEASURABLE...
RAINFALL. PRECIP IS BEING FORCED BY MODEST DCVA AND LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE BUT IS ALSO BEING AIDED BY SOME LAKE INDUCED
INSTABILITY OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN. HAVE THEREFORE INCREASED POPS
FOR THE MORNING HOURS. STILL EXPECTING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS BY
THE AFTERNOON AS SHORTWAVE EXITS AND DRIER AIR IS ADVECTED SOUTH.
LATEST RAP AND HRRR SUPPORT THIS IDEA SO NO MAJOR CHANGES FOR THE
AFTERNOON PERIOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS. LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS AND LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH BY
LATE AFTERNOON AS FLOW BECOMES MORE N AND NE. WHILE SKIES WILL CLEAR
IN WESTERN AREAS LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT...CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER
LONGER AS CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS ACROSS EASTERN AREAS WITH SOME
CONTRIBUTION FROM LAKE HURON. THE RESULT WILL BE PARTLY IF NOT
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES LINGERING INTO TONIGHT ALONG/EAST OF I-69.
AS SKIES CLEAR...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO REBOUND SOMEWHAT BUT
WILL STILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
CLEARING IN THE WEST WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A COLD NIGHT WITH NE
FLOW USHERING IN DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 30S AND LOWS IN A SIMILAR
RANGE (LOW TO MID 30S). FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT WITH END OF
CLIMATOLOGICAL GROWING SEASON NO HEADLINES WILL BE ISSUED.
&&
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN THE PERIOD WILL MODERATE
TO NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO THE
EARLY PARTS NEXT WEEK.
ON TUESDAY...UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP INTO A CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS WILL PLACE LOCAL AREA INTO
UPPER LEVEL INFLECTION ZONE WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME STRATOCU
PERSISTING ACROSS MAINLY EASTERN LOCATIONS. MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES
BUILDING IN MORE AGGRESSIVELY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. SLOW PROGRESSION OF CLOSING OFF SYSTEM ACROSS
MID ATLANTIC WILL RESULT IN ONLY A VERY SLOW EASTWARD MIGRATION OF
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING...WHICH WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONE ANCHORED
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS SETUP SHOULD PROVIDE
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S...AND A FEW GOOD NIGHTS OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S (POSSIBLY LOWER 30S IN
COOL SPOTS). PER PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT SENT
YESTERDAY...FROST/FREZE HEADLINES HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR LOCAL
AREA DUE TO EFFECTIVE ENDING OF THE GROWING SEASON.
NEXT FEATURE OF INTEREST FOR THURSDAY WILL BE UPPER PV ANOMALY
APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL
DEFORMATION ASSOCIATED WITH SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD
ATTENUATE THIS PV ANOMALY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY RESULTING IN WANING UPPER FORCING.
NONETHELESS...ANOTHER NARROW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS WILL PRECEDE
THIS UPPER PV ANOMALY WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL WAA/MOISTURE ADVECTION AND
WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS OVERSPREADING THE AREA. NO CHANGE
NEEDED TO PREVIOUS SLIGHT CHANCE RAIN SHOWER POPS ACROSS THE WEST
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH LESSER CONFIDENCE ACROSS THE EAST DUE TO
WEAKENING NATURE OF UPPER PV ANOMALY.
UPPER RIDGE SHOULD EVENTUALLY GET PINCHED OFF FROM AFOREMENTIONED
TWO SYSTEMS...WITH RENEWED MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT RISES WORKING INTO
THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL MARK A MORE DISTINCT WARMING
TREND FOR SATURDAY/SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO INDICATE SOUTHEAST CANADIAN UPPER SHORT WAVE PROVIDING MORE
SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION PUSH ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES. ONLY ADJUSTMENT TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER
CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY...WITH A BIT SHARPER SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
GRADIENT IN MAX TEMPS ALTHOUGH STILL A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY IN
HOW FAR SOUTH STRONGER LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION IS ABLE TO PUSH
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
A SLIGHTLY FLATTER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN SHOULD SET UP EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH NEXT BROAD EASTERN PACIFIC WAVE BRINGING THE NEXT
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 126 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND THETA-E FLUX FROM THE GREAT LAKES IS
SUPPORTING HIGH END MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE AREA AT PRESS TIME.
EXPECT THIS STUBBORN STRATOCU DECK WILL GRADUALLY ERODE BY LATER
THIS EVENING BUT EXACT TIMING OF TRANSITION TO VFR CONDITIONS
REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND UPSTREAM OBS
STILL SHOW A LARGE AREA OF 3 KFT CEILINGS YET TO GO AND LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST CLOUDS WILL NOT SCATTER UNTIL AT LEAST
21-00Z. HAVE THEREFORE PUSHED BACK THE TRANSITION TO VFR CATEGORY
BY A FEW HOURS. FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...MUCH HIGHER CONFIDENCE
THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AND
SUBSIDENCE BUILD OVER THE REGION.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AGD
SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...AGD
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
109 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014
AN UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST KEEPING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
SMALL SHOWER CHANCES AROUND TODAY BUT THEN ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD IN. ANOTHER UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
BRINGING SMALL SHOWER CHANCES BEFORE MORE STOUT UPPER RIDGING BUILDS
IN THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY BELOW NORMAL UNTIL FRIDAY
AND THEN WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL FOR A FEW DAYS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1026 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014
PUSHED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH AS LAKE ENHANCED
SHOWERS ARE SURVIVING WELL INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. DOUBT THESE WILL
AMOUNT TO MUCH MORE THAN SPRINKLES...OR MAYBE A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS
AT BEST. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014
A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS MORNING ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE UPPER LOW AND COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND
EAST. HIGH UNCERTAINTY AND SMALL COVERAGE IF ANY SO KEPT TO A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING WITH PLACEMENT BASED ON THE HRRR
AND RUC OUTPUT. EXPECT SKIES TO BE MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR MOST OF THE DAY
WITH COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT ALLOWING QUICK DEVELOPMENT OF STRATOCU
WITH DAYTIME HEATING. FOR TEMPERATURES LEANED TOWARD COOLER MET
NUMBERS WITH EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014
BRIEF UPPER RIDGING WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND CONTINUED COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LOWS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL GET INTO
THE MID 30S IN PLACES AND WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE COULD SEE SOME FROST AROUND THE AREA. FOR NOW
PUT PATCHY FROST ANYWHERE LOWS WOULD GET BELOW 38 AND WILL NEED TO
MONITOR FOR ADVISORY POTENTIAL WITH UPCOMING FORECASTS.
ON THURSDAY NIGHT A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THAT WILL
BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AS WELL AS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A
LIGHT SHOWER ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 204 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014
DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THIS PERIOD AS ECMWF AND THE GFS BOTH
DEPICT A QUICK MOVING SHORT WAVE EXITING THE AREA EARLY ON FRIDAY
MORNING. A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BEFORE SLOWLY PROGRESSING EASTWARD
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE WILL ACCOMPANY THE RIDGE
ALOFT AND KEEP GENERALLY NORTHWEST TO WEST FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN DRY WEATHER
FOR CENTRAL INDIANA WITH TEMPERATURE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMALS.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 211800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1252 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
VFR STRATOCU CURRENTLY ENCOMPASSING THE FORECAST AREA AS ANOTHER
WAVE ALOFT TRACKS THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. STILL SEEING A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN INDIANA...AND IT/S STILL POSSIBLE
SOME OF THESE SHOWERS MAY GET FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO BRIEFLY IMPACT
KIND AND KLAF FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND HAVE MENTIONED VCSH FOR
THIS WITH NO VIS RESTRICTIONS. OTHERWISE WILL MAINTAIN A DRY
FORECAST. SKIES WILL CLEAR THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER WAVE
ROTATES AWAY TO THE EAST AND A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS
SOUTH INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. NORTHERLY WINDS AT 10-15KTS TODAY WILL
DIMINISH TO AROUND 5 KTS TONIGHT AND VEER NORTHEAST.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP/NIELD
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM...PUMA
AVIATION...SMF
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
539 PM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014
...AVIATION UPDATE...
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014
At 3 PM this afternoon, water vapor imagery showed much of the
Plains region underneath upper ridging while the shortwave trough
was deepening across Idaho into southern Montana. Gusty southerly
winds at the surface were observed advecting moisture into central
KS as dewpoint temperatures were increasing to near 60 degrees.
Across northeast Kansas, highs were a tad cooler in the middle 70s
while influence from the sfc ridge to our east kept surface air
drier with dewpoints dropping into the lower 40s.
Surface trough deepens over eastern CO this evening inducing an
h85 low level jet to increase around 30 kts. Moisture advects
northeastward into the CWA as dewpoints rise into the 50s
overnight. Mixing between h85 and the surface also increases to
near 10 kts over north central areas where low level stratus
appears more likely as opposed to fog. Weak isentropic lift at the
300K surface seen from the NAM and 4-km WRF models show
development of isolated activity over far eastern KS just before
sunrise. With forcing being particularly weak and saturation being
brief in the morning, decided to mention a few sprinkles being
possible. Otherwise focus turns to the incoming trough Wednesday
afternoon with slight chances of precip mentioned after 18Z.
Timing between short term and mid term guidance shows the optimal
lift arriving in north central areas near 00Z, however could not
rule out scattered showers during the afternoon. Elevated
instability seen in only a few hundred J/KG may result in isolated
thunderstorms.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014
Upper trough continues to move across the forecast area in the early
morning hours on Thursday. Lapse rates and CAPE remain rather weak,
and progressive nature keeps chances for heavy rainfall on the low
side. Have precipitation clearing the area by Noon, but could be a
few hours faster. This keeps overnight lows in the 50s, and highs
still manage to make it back into the lower 70s after the trough
passes.
In terms of sensible weather, Friday through Sunday continue to
bring above normal temperatures with highs in the upper 70s near
80 each day and lows in the 50s. Winds initially vary a bit as low
pressure passes to our north, but come around out of the south by
late Saturday and increase on Sunday afternoon. Flow aloft makes a
shift from a passing upper ridge to an approaching trough with SW
flow over the state.
Timing of the next upper trough still in question, although both GFS
and latest EC bring the next front through on Monday afternoon. EC
had split the energy into northern and southern tracks but now
seems to be coming toward a single more progressive single wave.
Kept lower end rain chances on Monday, which could continue into
Tuesday if system slows a bit as EC suggests. May be cooler across
the NW counties on Monday as trough comes in and cooler on Tuesday
behind the system.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 539 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014
Models continue to show some moisture advection and isentropic
lift between 900MB and 850MB after 06Z. Only the NAM forecast
soundings suggest there is any instability with the RAP and GFS
maintaining some inhibition above this layer. Therefore will
maintain a dry forecast for the terminals overnight and monitor
trends. Larger scale forcing does not affect the area tomorrow
until after 00Z, so the forecast has VFR conditions persisting.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...Wolters
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
1227 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE TO THE
SOUTHEAST TODAY AND WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND
TONIGHT....BRINGING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN TO THE AREA. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE DRIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE FOR MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
1230PM UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATE POP FORECAST AGAIN AS RAIN IS ARRIVING IN SOUTHWEST
MAINE AND MUCH OF NEW HAMPSHIRE. EXPECT THIS AREA OF RAIN TO FILL
IN MORE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
9AM UPDATE...
HAVE ALTERED POP TO BETTER REFLECT TIMING OF PRECIPITATION AS IT
ARRIVES PRIMARILY THIS AFTERNOON. HRRR MODEL SEEMS TO BE HANDLING
THIS WELL. LONG STRETCH OF MOISTURE ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY IS SEEN TO BE EXTENDING ALL THE WAY FROM A TROPICAL LOW IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO UP THROUGH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND INTO OUR
REGION. THE STAGE IS BEING SET FOR A BIG PRECIPITATION EVENT.
COASTAL AREAS WILL LIKELY GET THE HEAVIER RAIN FIRST THIS EVENING
AS RAIN WRAPS IN FROM THE OCEAN AROUND A SURFACE LOW. HAVE MADE
SOME MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO QPF FORECAST BUT THIS DID NOT RESULT
IN SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
6AM UPDATE...
HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR THIS MORNING AS A FEW OF THE RAIN SHOWERS
ARE FINALLY MAKING IT THROUGH TO THE SURFACE. NOT EXPECTING
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION UNTIL LATER.
ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
LOW CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN NEW YORK WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARDS
THROUGH THE DAY... WITH THE SHOWERS CURRENTLY IN NY SPREADING
EASTWARDS ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD STEADY
IN THE 50S... THE CLASSIC COLD AIR DAMMING SIGNATURE IS EVIDENT IN
THE ISOBARS... SO EXPECT LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE COASTAL PLAIN... RESULTING IN COASTAL FRONT FORMATION. WARM
AIR ADVECTION FROM THE DEVELOPING CYCLONE WILL RESULT IN LIGHT
RAIN BY AFTERNOON... WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ALONG THE COASTAL
FRONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY/...
THE LOW WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND AND MOVE
NORTHEASTWARDS OVER THE BENCHMARK INTO THE GULF OF MAINE DURING
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. STEADY LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY AND NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INTENSIFY ALONG THE
COAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW DEEPENS. THE STRONGEST
DYNAMICS MOVE IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT SETTING UP FOR HEAVY RAIN.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOCUS IN THE EXTENDED IS IN THE EARLY PART...AS LOW PRESSURE FEEDS
MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT SURFACE AND UPPER LOW WILL
STACK AND DEEPEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS IS PROGGED
TO SEND A SIGNIFICANT SLUG OF PRECIPITATION INTO PARTS OF WESTERN
MAINE AND ADJACENT NEW HAMPSHIRE. OPERATIONAL MODELS...INCLUDING
THE ECMWF AND GFS...ARE FORECASTING 2 TO 4 INCHES TO FALL IN THE
SPAN FROM 00Z THU THROUGH 00Z FRI. WITH EASTERLY FLOW UPSLOPING
INTO THE MOUNTAINS AND COARSE MODEL RESOLUTION IT IS REASONABLE
TO ASSUME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
AT THE MOMENT THERE ARE A LOT OF FAVORABLE PARAMETERS FOR A HEAVY
RAINFALL EVENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE 21/00Z GEFS
FORECAST A -4 STANDARD DEVIATION 850 MB U WIND ANOMALY. SUCH A
SEASONABLY STRONG EASTERLY JET IS A STRONG SIGNAL FOR HEAVY
QPF...ESPECIALLY FOR THE EASTERN SLOPES. IN ADDITION...-3 STANDARD
DEVIATION 250 MB U WIND ANOMALIES SIGNAL THAT SLOW FORWARD
MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY. THIS IS NOTABLE CONSIDERING THE
OPERATION GFS IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE WHEN COMPARED TO THE 21/00Z
ECMWF. SREF MEAN QPF AT KPWM IS JUST ABOVE 3"...WITH A CLUSTER OF
MEMBERS NEAR 4". ECMWF ENSEMBLES ALSO SHOW NEARLY HALF OF THE 51
MEMBERS AT OR ABOVE 5" TOTAL QPF THRU THURSDAY. THAT BEING
SAID...SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST SOME DRY SLOT ISSUES WRAPPING
AROUND THE SYSTEM WHICH COULD SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT PRECIPITATION.
GIVEN THAT THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS STILL MORE THAN 48 HOURS
OUT...WOULD LIKE ANOTHER SUITE OF GUIDANCE BEFORE MAKING ANY
HEADLINE DECISIONS. WILL ALLOW THE DAY SHIFT TO REVIEW LATEST
GUIDANCE IN THIS CASE.
EVENTUALLY LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS OFF TOWARDS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. WEATHER WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED THOUGH...AS NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH RACES SE ACROSS CANADA AND DRIVES A COLD
FRONT THRU NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. THE UPPER LOW CROSSING THE AREA
WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS...AS ECMWF IS COOLER THAN THE
GFS...AND ONLY A DEGREE OR SO FROM BEING SNOW ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN TAKE CONTROL FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM... VFR CEILINGS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE MORNING...
BEFORE CEILINGS DESCEND ALONG THE COAST AS RAIN MOVES IN TONIGHT.
BY TONIGHT... IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST... WHILE
LEB AND HIE MAY REMAIN MVFR. WEDNESDAY WILL SEE ALL LOCATIONS
REMAIN IN IFR. LLWS WILL BE A CONCERN FOR PWM...RKD... AND PSM.
LONG TERM...IFR CONDITIONS PROBABLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THRU THURSDAY
IN RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES. COASTAL TERMINALS WILL SEE GUSTY NE
WINDS AT OR ABOVE 25 KTS AT TIMES. KHIE WILL ALSO SEE DOWNSLOPING
WINDS THAT COULD BE GUSTY AT TIMES FROM THE E. MVFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY LINGER THRU THE WEEKEND...WITH SCT SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...
WINDS/SEAS WILL BE CALM FOR TUESDAY..BEFORE BUILDING AHEAD OF THE
STORM TUESDAY NIGHT. SUSTAINED GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS FOR WEDNESDAY...WITH GUSTS TO GALE IN THE BAYS. SEAS WILL
BUILD TO 10 TO 12 FT IN PROLONGED NORTHEASTERLY FLOW.
LONG TERM...GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. SCA CONDITIONS WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY...BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL OF THE WATERS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY MID TO LATE WEEK.
MOST SMALL RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY HAVE SHARP RISES AS
WELL. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
MAINE AND THE NORTHEAST FACING HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN...MOSTLY 2-3 INCHES
QPF WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS APPROACHING 5 INCHES.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICALLY LOW TIDES WILL PREVENT WIDESPREAD COASTAL FLOODING
PROBLEMS... HOWEVER PROLONGED NORTHEASTERLY FLOW MAY RESULT IN
AROUND A 1 FT SURGE. COMBINED WITH 10FT WAVES THIS MAY CAUSE BEACH
EROSION AND SPLASHOVER... ESPECIALLY IN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND YORK
COUNTY MAINE.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM UPDATE... KIMBLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
353 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM
THE SRN PLAINS THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO NW ONTARIO BETWEEN
TROUGHS OVER THE NW CONUS AND THE ERN GREAT LAKES. AT THE SFC...A
RIDGE EXTENDED FROM JAMES BAY THROUGH NRN ONTARIO TO LAKE SUPERIOR
RESULTING IN NE WINDS INTO UPPER MI. DAYTIME HEATING HAS FINALLY
HELPED DISSIPATE MOST OF THE REMAINING CLOUDS OVER WRN UPPER MI.
HOWEVER...SOME LAKE MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE NEAR THE SHORE
SUPPORTED SOME LINGERING CLOUDS FROM BIG BAY TO MUNISING.
TONIGHT...UNDER CLEAR SKIES...FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH PWAT VALUES DROPPING TO NEAR 0.15
INCH(25 PCT OF NORMAL) WHICH SHOULD DROP MIN TEMPS TOWARD THE LOWER
END OF GUIDANCE. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 20 TO 25 RANGE INLAND AND FROM
THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S CLOSER TO THE GREAT LAKES. WITH THE HIGH
SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST LATE...TEMPS MAY SLOWLY CLIMB LATE OVER THE
FAR WEST AS SRLY WINDS(BNDRY LAYER 15-20 KT) PRODUCE SOME MIXING.
SOME GROUND FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE MAINLY NEAR RIVER VALLEYS/LAKES AND
ESPECIALLY OVER THE S WHERE THE LIGHT SRLY FLOW OFF LAKE MI BRINGS IN
SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
WED...EVEN WITH A STRONG INVERSION...ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND 925 MB
TEMPS NEAR 6C...SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S EAST AND THE LOWER
50S WEST.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014
AT 00Z THURSDAY THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE STUCK UNDER A RIDGE
IN BETWEEN THE STRONG CUT OFF LOW SWINGING N OFF THE ATLANTIC
COAST...AND A TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE N PLAINS AND MANITOBA.
THE CANADIAN/N PLAINS TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS ONTARIO AND LAKE
SUPERIOR ON THURSDAY. JUST HOW THE TROUGH INTERACTS WITH THE CUT OFF
LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND STATES IS STILL IN QUESTION. THE ECMWF IS
QUICKER TO SCOOT THE TROUGH S OF THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY
MORNING...WHILE THE GFS STAYS WITH MORE OF A STEADY ELONGATED TROUGH
SLIDING W-E. THEY ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE IDEA OF RAIN AVERAGING
0.2IN OVER THE W HALF OF UPPER MI LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BEFORE DRYING UP AND EXITING THE AREA.
AFTER ZONAL FLOW FRIDAY...NW FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE CWA FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE 21/00Z ECMWF WAS A BIT FARTHER S AND QUICKER WITH THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE SWINGING IN FROM MANITOBA AND W ONTARIO...INDICATING
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS GLANCING N AREAS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE 12Z GFS AND
ECMWF RUNS ARE A BIT MORE IN LINE. BRISK NW FLOW WILL TAKE HOLD
SATURDAY /40-45KT 850MB LLJ/...WITH 850MB TEMPS FALLING FROM AROUND
6-8C AT DAYBREAK TO 0-5C BY THE END OF THE DAY /COOLEST OFF THE
ECMWF/.
THE NEXT SFC RIDGE WILL BE OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY...IN BETWEEN THE
EXITING LOW OVER HUDSON BAY AND QUEBEC...AND A NEARING LOW
DEVELOPING ACROSS S CENTRAL CANADA AND THE N PLAINS. AT THIS POINT
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHING ACROSS
WI/UPPER MI/LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE 21/00Z ECMWF
EJECTS THE SYSTEM TO THE NE QUICKLY MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY
MORNING...WHILE THE 21/06Z GFS RIDES AN ADDITIONAL LOW UP THE
TROUGH WHICH KEEPS LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY NIGHT OF NEXT WEEK. WHETHER OR NOT THE PROGRESSIVE BUT
DRAMATIC ECMWF SOLUTION PANS OUT IS STILL UNCERTAIN...AS IT WOULD
STRAND A CUT OFF LOW ACROSS THE S PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT THOUGH AT
LEAST MID WEEK. WILL CONTINUE WITH A BLENDED SOLUTION FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...UNTIL WE GET A BETTER VISION OF WHAT MAY HAPPEN
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE 12Z RUN OF THE ECMWF HAS ABANDONED THE CUT OFF
LOW SOLUTION OVER THE S PLAINS...AND LOOKS A BIT MORE LIKE THE
GFS...BUT A LOT WEAKER WITH LESS PRECIP.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014
SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST THAT ANY LINGERING MVFR CLOUDS AT KIWD WILL
DISSIPATE BY MID AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY
AIR BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS
LESS THAN 20 KTS OVER LK SUPERIOR FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. PASSAGE
OF A TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WILL LEAD TO INCREASING WNW WINDS TO 25 KTS
ON SATURDAY...STRONGEST OVER EAST HALF OF LK SUPERIOR.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND OR
944 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014
.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT A VERY WET AND OCCASIONALLY WINDY WEEK AHEAD AS
AN ACTIVE FALL WEATHER PATTERN DOMINATES SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND
NORTHWEST OREGON. THE SYSTEM WHICH BROUGHT SHOWERS AND A COUPLE
CLAPS OF THUNDER MONDAY HAS MOVED INTO EASTERN OREGON AND THE GREAT
BASIN. ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY REMAINS LEFT BEHIND FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM IS
TAKING SHAPE OFFSHORE. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A SLOW MOVER...SPREADING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. THIS FRONT WILL PRODUCE STRONG COASTAL WINDS
AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOP ALONG IT AND PASS BY. ANOTHER WET
AND POTENTIALLY WINDY FRONT IS EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND.
&&
.UPDATE...MODELS HAVE CHANGED LITTLE THUS FAR WITH THE 12Z OUTPUT.
THE WARM FRONT IS CURRENTLY SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT STILL WELL OFFSHORE. THE OCCLUSION IS SITUATED
JUST OFFSHORE THE NORTH TIP OF VANCOUVER ISLAND. THIS SETUP PLACES
OUR REGION SQUARELY IN THE WARMING SECTOR OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM.
CONDITIONS ARE STILL VERY FAVORABLE TO SEE A COASTAL JET DEVELOP
WITH NAM12 AND RAP INDICATED PEAK SPEEDS AROUND 67 MPH CENTERED
AROUND 900 MB. THUS FEEL MOST GUSTS ALONG THE COAST WILL PEAK OUT
AROUND 60 MPH GIVEN BROAD ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
AND WINDS AT THAT LEVEL VEERING MORE SW THAN THE SOUTH WINDS TRAPPED
ALONG THE TERRAIN. WILL STILL CARRY THE HIGHER SPEEDS TONIGHT IN THE
PRODUCTS FOR NOW AS THE EXPOSED HIGHER HEADLANDS SUCH AS CAPE
FOULWEATHER...CAPE LOOKOUT...AND CAPE DISAPPOINTMENT CERTAINLY COULD
FULLY REALIZE THOSE HIGHER SPEEDS. RAIN AMOUNTS REMAIN ON TRACK AS
EXPECTED FROM OVER THE LAST COUPLE DAYS. /JBONK
&&
.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 351 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE MAIN FEATURE OF THE SHORT
TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE OUR STRONGEST FRONTAL SYSTEM SO FAR
THIS SEASON...PRODUCING STRONG COASTAL WINDS LATER TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO HAVE A STRONG TAP TO SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE...SPREADING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
CONDITIONS ARE RIPE FOR CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE FRONT...AND MULTIPLE
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND RIDE NE ALONG THE
FRONT AS IT PASSES SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN WA/OR.
FIRST THINGS FIRST...SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS MORNING IN THE
RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY LEFT BEHIND THE FRONT
WHICH MOVED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY. THESE SHOULD GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF THIS MORNING AS THE AIR MASS WARMS ALOFT...HOWEVER THE WARM
ADVECTION ALOFT WILL ALSO PRODUCE ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN RAINY DAY FOR THE COAST AND PERHAPS OUR NORTHERN ZONES AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS THROUGH NW OREGON AND SW WASHINGTON.
BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...THE DOOR WILL BE OPENED FOR A STRENGTHENING
COASTAL JET AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THOUGH DETAILS
VARY...MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN SUGGESTING A 55 TO
65 KT SOUTHERLY JET DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST AT 950 MB. THIS SHOULD
BE AMPLE FOR 55-70 MPH GUSTS AT TIMES ALONG THE BEACHES AND HEADLANDS
FROM THE S WA COAST DOWN TO THE LINCOLN AND POSSIBLY LANE COUNTY
COAST. THEREFORE WILL BE UPGRADING THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO A WARNING
FOR THESE AREAS. TIMING WILL REMAIN THE SAME FOR THE S WA/N OR
COAST...THIS AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL EXTEND THE TIMING
FOR THE CENTRAL COAST INTO MIDDAY WEDNESDAY TO GIVE THE FRONT SOME
TIME TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE LANE/DOUGLAS COUNTY BORDER.
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...WHICH WILL SLOW DOWN ITS SOUTHWARD
PROGRESS. THESE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY EACH PRODUCE A
BURST OF COASTAL WIND TO ITS SOUTH AND EAST ALONG THE FRONT. SO WINDS
MAY BE STRONG FOR A FEW HOURS...LET UP A BIT...THEN PICK BACK UP
AGAIN UNTIL THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF COASTAL LOCATIONS. THERE IS
STILL A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW DEEP THESE LOWS WILL
GET...WHICH OF COURSE WOULD IMPACT THE EXPECTED WIND SPEEDS.
THE 06Z NAM IS DEVELOPING A 990 MB LOW ALONG THE FRONT BY 09Z WED...
PUSHING IT INTO VANCOUVER ISLAND WED MORNING. THE FIRST SIGNS OF THIS
DEVELOPING LOW ARE ALREADY SHOWING UP ON INFRARED/WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
WITH A BAROCLINIC LEAF TAKING SHAPE ALONG THE FRONT NEAR 150W. A
SECONDARY LOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE TRIPLE POINT OF THE
RESULTING OCCLUDING FRONT OFF THE NORTHERN OREGON COAST...AND PERHAPS
A TERTIARY LOW THEREAFTER. THESE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOW THE
SOUTHWARD PROGRESS...EACH PRODUCING A BURST OF COASTAL WIND TO ITS
SOUTH AND EAST ALONG THE FRONT. SO WINDS MAY BE STRONG FOR A FEW
HOURS...LET UP A BIT...THEN PICK BACK UP AGAIN UNTIL THE FRONT PUSHES
SOUTH OF COASTAL LOCATIONS. THERE IS STILL A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY
AS TO HOW DEEP THESE LOWS WILL GET...WHICH OF COURSE WOULD IMPACT THE
EXPECTED WIND SPEEDS.
ALSO THE 06Z NAM IS BEGINNING TO SHOW SOME POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS
IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY...AS ITS SECONDARY LOW MOVES ONSHORE NEAR
ASTORIA WED MORNING. THIS TRACK COULD OPEN UP ENOUGH SOUTHERLY
GRADIENT FOR 30-40 MPH WIND GUSTS IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND
STRONGER WIND GUSTS IN THE COASTAL COMMUNITIES. FOR NOW IT APPEARS
WINDS WILL REMAIN SUB-ADVISORY CRITERIA INLAND...BUT WILL NEED TO
MONITOR CLOSELY.
NOT TO GET LOST IN ALL THE DISCUSSION ABOUT OUR FIRST COASTAL HIGH
WIND EVENT...IS THE POTENTIAL FOR RATHER IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL TOTALS
AS THIS SLOW MOVING...WAVY FRONT MOVES SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA. THIS SYSTEM IS TAPPING INTO A DECENT ATMOSPHERIC RIVER
WHICH EXTENDS ALL THE WAY BACK BEYOND THE DATELINE. MADE ONLY MINOR
CHANGES TO THE QPF FORECAST...WITH 2 INCHES OF RAIN EXPECTED FOR THE
INLAND VALLEYS...2-4 INCHES ALONG THE COAST...AND 3-6 INCHES IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN BY THURSDAY. IT WILL BE A CLOSE CALL WHETHER OR NOT
THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE PROBLEMS ON FLASHIER RIVERS LIKE THE
GRAYS RIVER IN THE WILLAPA HILLS...AS WELL AS THE BURN SCAR AREAS
FROM THE 36 PIT AND DECEPTION FIRES. IMPACTS ON THESE AREAS WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY OVER THE COMING DAYS.
DUE TO THIS SYSTEMS SUBTROPICAL ORIGINS SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN
RATHER HIGH THROUGHOUT THIS EVENT...SO ONLY THE HIGHEST VOLCANO PEAKS
ABOVE 6000-7000 FEET WILL RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL.
THE FRONT WILL FINALLY PUSH SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA
SOMETIME LATE WED NIGHT OR THU MORNING. SHOWERS WILL LINGER IN THE
COOL UNSETTLED AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY. WEAGLE
LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO STRUGGLE WITH HOW TO HANDLE THE LATE WEEK AND WEEKEND PERIOD.
THERE IS INCREASING AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER POTENT LOW PRESSURE/
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE...PERHAPS BRINGING ANOTHER
PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS FRIDAY AND/OR SATURDAY. AS FOR
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN...THE LATEST 00Z RUNS ARE TRYING TO KEEP THE
MEAN RIDGE POSITION OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES. THIS
IS NOT SURPRISING CONSIDERING THE LARGE POOL OF ABOVE NORMAL SEA
SURFACE TEMPS OVER THE NE PACIFIC. THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MAY REMAIN
IN THE TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN LONGWAVE RIDGING AND TROUGHING WELL
INTO NEXT WEEK...WHICH IS OF COURSE WHERE THE STORM TRACK TENDS TO
BE. THEREFORE ACTIVE AND WET WEATHER AT TIMES IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK. WEAGLE
&&
.AVIATION...SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION. EXPECT PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND
TONIGHT WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS FORMING FROM TIME TO TIME. GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP TODAY AND ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING.
COASTAL SITES MAY SEE WIND GUSTS TO 45 KT AT TIMES TONIGHT THROUGH
WED MORNING. A HIGH WIND WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL
SITES. A COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD HEAVIER RAIN ONTO THE COAST
OVERNIGHT NIGHT AND INLAND TOMORROW MORNING.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR PREVAILING THROUGH TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH A
BRIEF MVFR CIG MAY FORM THROUGH ABOUT 21Z IN SHOWERS. BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. A COLD
FRONT TO SPREAD STEADY RAIN IN AFTER 12Z TOMORROW. PYLE
&&
.MARINE...S/SW WINDS CONTINUE AROUND 10 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25
KT THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TODAY...REACHING
GALE FORCE BY MID AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WITH
GUSTS TO 40 TO 45 KT EXPECTED. SOME COASTAL JET ENHANCEMENT MAY
BRING A FEW 50 TO 55 KT GUSTS TO THE NEAR SHORE WATERS.
A WESTERLY SWELL ON THE ORDER OF 10 FT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...BUT SEAS WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY TONIGHT AS THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS PICK UP. BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...SEAS
MAY APPROACH 20 KT LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP OFF DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
ADDITIONAL SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS WEEK...BUT THE TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE STRONGEST. PYLE
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM PDT WEDNESDAY
FOR NORTH OREGON COAST.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON PDT WEDNESDAY
FOR CENTRAL OREGON COAST.
WA...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM PDT WEDNESDAY
FOR SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 1 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.
GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 1 PM PDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE
OR OUT 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 9 AM PDT
WEDNESDAY.
&&
$$
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
301 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014
.SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.
AREA OF LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH
SOUTHWEST AND SLOWLY DISSIPATE UNTIL SUNSET...PER 1000/850MB
RELATIVE HUMIDITY FIELDS IN MODELS AND HRRR CEILING FORECASTS.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT...THEN TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL WEAKEN WITH THE HIGH THIS EVENING...WITH
LIGHT/CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL TUMBLE INTO THE 29 TO 34 DEGREE RANGE AWAY
FROM LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT...SO MORE FROST IS EXPECTED EXCEPT RIGHT
ALONG THE LAKESHORE. HIGHS WEDNESDAY SHOULD ONLY REACH THE LOWER TO
MID 50S...PER 925 MB TEMPERATURE FIELDS FROM MODELS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS WED NT AND INTO
THE WRN GREAT LAKES FOR THU. AT THE SFC...A WEAKENING TROUGH WILL
ACCOMPANY THE UPPER FEATURE AND MOVE ACROSS SRN WI THU NT ALONG
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE EVENING. DUE TO THE
WEAKENING OF THE TROUGH AND SLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT...AN EAST TO WEST
POP GRADIENT IS FORECAST OVER THE AREA. LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI FROM THU AM INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH ONLY
CHANCES IN FAR ERN WI. TEMPS WILL REMAIN COOL FOR THU. LOW POPS
WILL LINGER INTO THU NT WITH DRYING AFTERWARD. A WEAK SFC RIDGE
WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THU NT AND FRI. IN ADDITION...A
DRY ATM AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT WILL LEAD TO MILD TEMPS FOR
FRI.
.LONG TERM...
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
A WLY FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING INTO SAT AHEAD OF A
AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT FROM CANADA. THE POLAR TROUGH AND
SFC LOW WITH THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN IN CANADA...THUS THE FRONT
WILL BE DRY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR SAT NT AND
TRANSITION TO SLY FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION FOR SUN. THE WAA PATTERN
IS DUE TO CYCLOGENESIS FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO CANADA. A BROAD
N-S UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN TRACK ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT
PLAINS FOR SUN NT AND MON. ONLY A WEAK N-S SFC TROUGH IS EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME WITH ONLY LOW POPS FOR PCPN FOR MON-TUE...BUT
STRONGER CYCLOGENESIS AND HIGHER CHANCES OF RAIN COULD BE
POSSIBLE.
&&
.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER UNTIL SUNSET ACROSS TAF SITES.
OVERCAST SKIES WILL BECOME BROKEN...THEN SCATTER OUT BY EARLY THIS
EVENING. SKIES SHOULD THEN REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. MAY SEE SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.
BRISK NORTH WINDS WILL LINGER UNTIL SUNSET AT THE EASTERN TAF
SITES...WITH NORTHEAST WINDS AT MADISON. WINDS WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT
AND BECOME EASTERLY...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES UNTIL 06Z WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE
NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. GUSTY NORTH WINDS OF 15 TO 20
KNOTS ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY EVENING...WITH A FEW 25 KNOT GUSTS.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT WAVES OF 3 TO 6 FEET. WINDS AND WAVES
WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENS.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ643>646.
&&
$$
TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...GEHRING
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1258 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014
THE LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ONTARIO AND A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS RUNNING
SOUTHWEST OVER THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL PLAINS.
EAST OF THE RIDGE AXIS...NORTH TO NORTH NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES
OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE COMBO OF UNSTABLE CONDITIONS OVER
LAKE SUPERIOR AND THERMAL TROUGHING ARE CONTRIBUTING TO WIDESPREAD
STRATO-CU ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF WISCONSIN. AREA OBS ARE
STILL REPORTING SPOTTY SPRINKLES. FURTHER NORTH...DRIER AIR IS
WORKING SOUTHWARD OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. LOOKING UPSTREAM...A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXITS OVER THE CENTRAL OF THE CONTINENT WHICH IS
LEADING TO CLEAR AND QUIET CONDITIONS. FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE
CLOUDS TRENDS TODAY FOLLOWED BY TEMPS.
TODAY...NOT AN EASY CLOUD FORECAST TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
BUILD SOUTHWARD OUT OF ONTARIO...BUT 925MB THERMAL TROUGHING AND
NORTH TO NNE FLOW CONTINUE OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH LOWERING
INVERSION HEIGHTS AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...THINK
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO HANG AROUND OVER N-C AND MOST OF EASTERN
WISCONSIN THROUGH THE MID-MORNING HOURS. BUT WITH DAYTIME
HEATING...MIXING SHOULD TAP INTO THE VERY DRY AIR ABOVE THE
INVERSION WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO RAPID CLEARING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
THE EXCEPTION WILL LIKELY BE THE LAKESHORE WHERE NNE WINDS WILL KEEP
LAKE CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S.
TONIGHT...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THIS INCOMING AIRMASS WILL BE VERY DRY...WITH
PWATS UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...SHOULD HAVE NEARLY IDEAL RADIATIVE COOLING CONDITIONS.
DROPPED LOW TEMPERATURES BELOW THE COLDEST GUIDANCE. LOWS IN THE
LOWER 20S WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS N-C WISCONSIN. MAINLY MID 20S TO
LOW 30S EVERYWHERE ELSE.
WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN THE
AFTERNOON BUT WILL BE TOO FAR WEST FOR ANY IMPACT ON OUR SENSIBLE
WEATHER. SO SHOULD SEE ANOTHER DAY OF PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. LOW
INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL PREVENT MUCH MIXING. SO EXPECT SEASONABLE
TEMPS IN THE LOWER 50S.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014
UPPER RIDGE OVER WISCONSIN AND ILLINOIS GETS DAMPENED
AND PUSHED TO THE EAST AS AN UPPER TROUGH DROPS TOWARDS WISCONSIN
FROM CENTRAL CANADA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT APPROACHES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN
MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY WHILE A WAVE MOVES TO
THE NORTH ALONG THE FRONT. THE MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE SHOWERS BUT THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES IN HOW QUICKLY IT EXITS. MOST PLACES SHOULD GET SOME
SHOWER ACTIVITY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING BUT AMOUNTS LOOK TO
BE MODEST AND AROUND A QUARTER TO HALF INCH. AFTER THAT UPPER FLOW
BECOMES NORTHWEST WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNDAY. RISING UPPER HEIGHTS SHOULD BRING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES STARTING ON FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014
MOST OF AREA HAD MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING...BUT DRY AIR MAKING ITS
WAY INTO WISCONSIN FROM THE NORTHEAST WAS CAUSING CLOUDS TO BREAK
UP. BY 1730Z MVFR CIGS WERE MOSTLY CONFINED NORTH CENTRAL AND
PARTS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THERE WERE SOME CIGS NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN BUT THEY WERE MOSTLY LOW END VFR. EXPECT CLOUDS TO
CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON LEAVING CLEAR SKIES FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS WISCONSIN
WILL RESULT IN LIGHT OR CALM WINDS. THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS COULD PRODUCE PATCHY FOG LATER TONIGHT. 12Z NAM
AND GFS MOS GUIDANCE HAD DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS GENERALLY 4F OR
MORE...BUT WOULD STILL NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE ENDED UP WITH PATCHY
FOG SINCE IT FORMED AT SOME LOCATIONS IN MINNESOTA THAT WERE UNDER
THE HIGH. SHOULD JUST BE HIGH CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA DURING
THE MORNING ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......MG