Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 10/20/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
204 PM PDT SAT OCT 18 2014
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY BEFORE A
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA MONDAY. LOW CLOUDS
AND PATCHY FOG WILL RETURN TO THE COAST AND VALLEYS TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY. LOOK FOR A CHANCE OF RAIN MONDAY ESPECIALLY FROM THE
SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS NORTHWARD. THIS WEAK SYSTEM SHOULD BE FAST
MOVING WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING BY MIDWEEK. WARMER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 01:34 PM PDT SATURDAY...BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
HAS TURNED ONSHORE AND PATCHY LOW CLOUDS OFF THE COAST SHOULD
BEGIN TO FILL IN NEAR THE COAST AFTER DARK AS THE AIRMASS COOLS.
STRATUS WILL DEVELOP AND SPREAD INLAND TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING
PER HRRR AND NAM GUIDANCE AS A SHORT WAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
AREA. THE ALREADY HIGH DEW POINTS SUPPORT THE HRRR AND NAM
SOLUTIONS.
THE MARINE LAYER HAS MIXED OUT TODAY...BUT WILL REDEVELOP WEAKLY
AND SHOULD BE VARIABLE BETWEEN 1000 AND 2000 FEET TONIGHT. SHOULD
HAVE A DEEPER MARINE LAYER TO THE NORTH WITH FASTER RETURN OF
STRATUS OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST AND INTO
THE SALINAS VALLEY LATER TONIGHT WITH SOME LOCAL DRIZZLE.
STRATUS SHOULD BE SLOW TO CLEAR FROM THE BAY AREA AND SURROUNDINGS
SUNDAY WITH A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND WEAK ONSHORE FLOW. MAY
ACTUALLY SEE MORE SUNSHINE IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA THAN THE NORTH.
STRATUS WILL PUSH WELL INLAND SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE MARINE LAYER
WILL DEEPEN AND MIX OUT BY MONDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE COAST. BEST CHANCE FOR COASTAL DRIZZLE OCCURS
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW.
GFS AND NAM IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT SHOWING A FAST MOVING POTENT
VORT MAX WITH PV TROF THAT SHOULD HOLD THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TOGETHER AT LEAST INTO THE NORTH BAY. FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE BAY
AREA EXPECTED TOWARD MIDDAY MONDAY...THEN THE BOUNDARY WEAKENS
RAPIDLY AS UPPER SUPPORT SHEARS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. RAINFALL
WILL BE GREATEST IN THE NORTH BAY AND TAPER RAPIDLY TO THE SOUTH.
THIS APPEARS TO BE ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM...BUT HAS ENOUGH DYNAMICS
TO SQUEEZE OUT A LITTLE PRECIPITATION.
A COOL AND FAIRLY MOIST WELL MIXED AIRMASS WILL RESIDE OVER THE
AREA TUESDAY AS THE TROF MOVES INLAND. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE INTERIOR WEST FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND
EXPECT A WARMING AND DRYING TREND FOR THE CENTRAL COAST.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 10:30 AM PDT SATURDAY...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS
(UNDER 12 KT) EXPECTED TODAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS. LOW CLOUDS
REFORMING OVER THE COAST AND MOVING INLAND OVERNIGHT.
VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR THROUGH THE DAY. 270 TO 290 WINDS ABOVE 10
KT AT TIMES FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MVFR CIGS AFTER 10Z.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR THROUGH THE DAY WITH WINDS
GENERALLY UNDER 10 KT. MVFR EXPECTED TO RETURN AROUND 04Z
TONIGHT...IFR CIGS BY 12Z SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 10:24 AM PDT SATURDAY...WINDS WILL SWITCH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY BY THE EVENING. ANOTHER FRONT WILL ARRIVE MONDAY
WITH WINDS SWITCHING BACK TO SOUTHERLY BY SUNDAY NIGHT. A LARGE
NORTHWESTERLY SWELL GENERATED BY A STORM IN THE GULF OF ALASKA
WILL ARRIVE AT THE COAST LATE SUNDAY WITH LONG PERIOD FORERUNNERS
ARRIVING SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE LARGER WAVES ARRIVING MONDAY.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TNGT...NONE.
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: KBB
AVIATION/MARINE: SIMS
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
1052 AM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1050 AM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014
SATELLITE LOOP SHOWED AN UPPER LOW MOVING INTO NERN NM THIS
MORNING WHILE A PACIFIC TROUGH WAS IN THE PROCESS OF SPLITTING AS
IT APPROACHES THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN. RATHER EXTENSIVE MID-LEVEL
CLOUD DECK ACROSS ERN UT/SWRN CO APPEARS ASSOCIATED WITH A SMALL
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO SERN UT PER 500 MB VORTICITY FIELD. HI-
RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUE TO FOCUS SOME PRECIPITATION ON THE SAN
JUAN MTNS THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE 16Z SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWED LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPENING THE QUICKEST. CURRENT FORECAST HAS
THIS IN HAND. WILL TWEAK THE FORECAST SKY GRIDS TO BOOST CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014
IR SATELLITE SHOWING PLENTY OF CLOUDS FOR MAINLY SOUTHERN AREAS OF
THE CWA THIS MORNING WITH SOME LIGHT RETURNS SHOWING UP ON RADAR.
THESE CLOUDS ARE IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK WAVE THAT IS CURRENTLY
MOVING ACROSS CO AND NEW MEXICO. BY DAYBREAK THE WAVE WILL SHIFT
TO ERN CO WHILE ANOTHER WEAK WAVE TAKES AIM FOR AREAS SOUTH. HRRR
AND RAP NOT SHOWING MUCH PRECIP UNTIL THIS AFTN WITH NAM12
FOLLOWING SUIT. KEPT VERY ISOLD POPS OVER HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF
SAN JUANS WITH COVERAGE INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY REACHING THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS FROM NOON ONWARDS. LAPSE RATES STEEPEN SOMEWHAT
THIS AFTERNOON WITH CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY ALSO INCREASING A BIT
SO INCLUDED ISOLD STORMS THOUGH THEY SHOULD BE FEW AND FAR
BETWEEN. THOSE AREAS AWAY FROM ANY CONVECTION WILL SEE SOME MID TO
HIGH CLOUDS AS TEMPS CONTINUE TO RUN WARM.
A PSEUDO-REX BLOCK WILL BE SETTING UP TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH
THE LOW OVER THE BAJA REGION TRAPPED UNDER AN AMPLIFYING NORTHERN
ROCKIES RIDGE. THIS RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE NORTH CENTRAL STATES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE LEFT
AND RIGHT COASTLINES OF NOAM. A SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT TO THE
SOUTHERN FLOW PATTERN OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST APPEARS TO TAP
INTO MOISTURE ORIGINATING IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. 305K
THETA SURFACES SHOW A DECENT WARM CONVEYOR BELT ASCENDING OUT OF
WEST TEXAS TOWARD THE 4 CORNERS OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE BULK
OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE UTILIZED TO OUR SOUTH WHERE THE MAIN
SOURCE OF ASCENT WILL BE PRESENT. FARTHER NORTH...OROGRAPHICS AND
MARGINAL CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY WILL BE KEEPING SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOCUSED OVER OUR SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS. A
STRAY SHOWER MAY SURVIVE INTO THE VALLEY BUT UPPER WINDS ARE NOT
ENTIRELY FAVORABLE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE STUCK IN A RUT AND
PERSISTENCE STILL SEEMS THE WAY TO GO.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014
A STRONGER POLAR JET WILL BE DESCENDING THE HIGH LATITUDES TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST STATES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS FORCES THE REX
PATTERN EVER SO SLOWLY TO THE EAST AS STRONG BLOCKING PERSISTS IN
THE EAST. FORCING REMAIN MINIMAL AND SO LOW POPS STUCK TO THE
TERRAIN IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COLORADO MOUNTAINS HIGHLIGHT
THE FORECAST AS TEMPERATURE TRENDS REMAIN STATIC.
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE LIFTING OUT OF OUR REGION TUESDAY AND
AS IT DOES SO...WEAKENING DIVERGENCE WILL LEND ITSELF TO SOME SPOTTY
PRECIP FOR MAINLY HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE CWA. QUICK ON THE
HEELS OF THIS WAVE IS A STRONG JET THAT WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE AND MORE PRECIP WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. MODELS NOT SHOWING MUCH OF A BREAK BETWEEN THESE TWO WAVES
SO EXPECT UNSETTLED WX FOR MOST OF TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AFTER
THAT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND PERSISTS THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD. DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE RESULT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1050 AM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014
AN UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS NRN NM AND A PACIFIC TROUGH MOVING INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN WILL RESULT IN A FAIRLY EXTENSIVE MID-LEVEL
CLOUD DECK ACROSS ERN UT AND THE SRN TWO-THIRDS OF WRN CO THROUGH
THIS EVENING. WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD LEAD TO ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS
MAINLY OVER THE SAN JUAN MTNS BUT A FEW COULD REACH AS FAR NORTH AS
GRAND MESA AND THE ELK MTNS. ISOLD TS POSSIBLE OVER THE SAN JUANS
THIS AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH BY 06Z TONIGHT.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JAD
SHORT TERM...TGR/15
LONG TERM...15/TGR
AVIATION...JAD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
254 AM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014
IR SATELLITE SHOWING PLENTY OF CLOUDS FOR MAINLY SOUTHERN AREAS OF
THE CWA THIS MORNING WITH SOME LIGHT RETURNS SHOWING UP ON RADAR.
THESE CLOUDS ARE IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK WAVE THAT IS CURRENTLY
MOVING ACROSS CO AND NEW MEXICO. BY DAYBREAK THE WAVE WILL SHIFT
TO ERN CO WHILE ANOTHER WEAK WAVE TAKES AIM FOR AREAS SOUTH. HRRR
AND RAP NOT SHOWING MUCH PRECIP UNTIL THIS AFTN WITH NAM12
FOLLOWING SUIT. KEPT VERY ISOLD POPS OVER HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF
SAN JUANS WITH COVERAGE INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY REACHING THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS FROM NOON ONWARDS. LAPSE RATES STEEPEN SOMEWHAT
THIS AFTERNOON WITH CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY ALSO INCREASING A BIT
SO INCLUDED ISOLD STORMS THOUGH THEY SHOULD BE FEW AND FAR
BETWEEN. THOSE AREAS AWAY FROM ANY CONVECTION WILL SEE SOME MID TO
HIGH CLOUDS AS TEMPS CONTINUE TO RUN WARM.
A PSEUDO-REX BLOCK WILL BE SETTING UP TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH
THE LOW OVER THE BAJA REGION TRAPPED UNDER AN AMPLIFYING NORTHERN
ROCKIES RIDGE. THIS RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE NORTH CENTRAL STATES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE LEFT
AND RIGHT COASTLINES OF NOAM. A SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT TO THE
SOUTHERN FLOW PATTERN OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST APPEARS TO TAP
INTO MOISTURE ORIGINATING IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. 305K
THETA SURFACES SHOW A DECENT WARM CONVEYOR BELT ASCENDING OUT OF
WEST TEXAS TOWARD THE 4 CORNERS OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE BULK
OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE UTILIZED TO OUR SOUTH WHERE THE MAIN
SOURCE OF ASCENT WILL BE PRESENT. FARTHER NORTH...OROGRAPHICS AND
MARGINAL CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY WILL BE KEEPING SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOCUSED OVER OUR SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS. A
STRAY SHOWER MAY SURVIVE INTO THE VALLEY BUT UPPER WINDS ARE NOT
ENTIRELY FAVORABLE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE STUCK IN A RUT AND
PERSISTENCE STILL SEEMS THE WAY TO GO.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014
A STRONGER POLAR JET WILL BE DESCENDING THE HIGH LATITUDES TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST STATES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS FORCES THE REX
PATTERN EVER SO SLOWLY TO THE EAST AS STRONG BLOCKING PERSISTS IN
THE EAST. FORCING REMAIN MINIMAL AND SO LOW POPS STUCK TO THE
TERRAIN IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COLORADO MOUNTAINS HIGHLIGHT
THE FORECAST AS TEMPERATURE TRENDS REMAIN STATIC.
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE LIFTING OUT OF OUR REGION TUESDAY AND
AS IT DOES SO...WEAKENING DIVERGENCE WILL LEND ITSELF TO SOME SPOTTY
PRECIP FOR MAINLY HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE CWA. QUICK ON THE
HEELS OF THIS WAVE IS A STRONG JET THAT WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE AND MORE PRECIP WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. MODELS NOT SHOWING MUCH OF A BREAK BETWEEN THESE TWO WAVES
SO EXPECT UNSETTLED WX FOR MOST OF TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AFTER
THAT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND PERSISTS THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD. DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE RESULT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 253 AM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH MID
LEVEL CLOUDS BEING REPORTED IN THE SAN JUANS AND AREAS SOUTH.
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE SAME AREA FROM 12Z ONWARDS
OVERSPREADING TO THE CENTRAL MTNS BY 18Z. SOME STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTN BUT EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE VERY ISOLATED IN
NATURE...FAVORING THE HIGHEST TERRAIN. LOW CONFIDENCE THAT ANY TAF
SITES WILL BE AFFECTED SO WILL LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION FOR NOW. SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS MAY PERSIST PAST 03Z BUT VERY LIMITED COVERAGE
EXPECTED.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TGR/15
LONG TERM...15/TGR
AVIATION...TGR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
243 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014
.DISCUSSION...
958 AM CDT
FOR MORNING UPDATE...
INCREASED POPS MARKEDLY ACROSS NORTHEAST IL AND NORTHWEST INDIANA
THROUGH REMAINDER OF THE MORNING HOURS...WITH SOLID AREA OF RAIN
MOVING SOUTHWARD OUT OF SOUTHEASTERN WISCONSIN IN ASSOCIATION WITH
DEEP MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT IS DIGGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. RAPID-REFRESH (HRRR) SEEMS TO HAVE A DECENT
HANDLE ON THIS AREA OF RAIN...WITH THE HRRR AND TIMING OF TRAILING
EDGE OF PRECIP FROM RADAR SUGGESTING RAIN WILL END ACROSS CHICAGO
AREA AROUND NOON...AND DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON FARTHER SOUTHEAST.
SOME LAKE EFFECT SPRINKLES WILL LIKELY LINGER ACROSS NORTHWEST
INDIANA FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT
A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LOWERING BEHIND THIS
RATHER STOUT WAVE THIS AFTERNOON SIGNIFICANTLY LIMITING CLOUD DEPTH
LATER ON. THIS IS ALSO EXPECTED TO HELP OPEN UP MORE HOLES IN
EXTENSIVE STRATOCU SHIELD UPSTREAM ACROSS WI...THOUGH WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR SATELLITE TRENDS AS OUR CURRENT FORECAST INDICATES LESS
CLOUD COVER BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. IF CLOUD COVER REMAINS MORE
EXTENSIVE MAY HAVE TO REVISIT HIGH TEMPS TOO...WITH COOL ADVECTION
CURRENTLY FEEDING AIR IN FROM WISCONSIN WHICH HAS TEMPS ONLY IN THE
LOW-MID 40S.
RATZER
//PREV DISCUSSION...
323 AM CDT
WITH 12 OF THE 17 DAYS SO FAR THIS MONTH WITH PRECIPITATION
/INCLUDING ONE WITH A LITTLE SNOW/...WE REMAIN IN THAT SAME THEME
WITH CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO KICK OFF THE WEEKEND THIS
MORNING AND THEN TO END IT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THAT ALONG
WITH AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND INFLUENCE ON TEMPERATURES THIS
WEEKEND WERE THE MAIN EMPHASIS IN THIS FORECAST.
.TODAY...
THE TWO UPPER LOWS THAT BROUGHT PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER TO THE LOCAL
AREA OVER THIS PAST WEEK HAVE MERGED AS A BROADER UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES. CHARGING DOWN THE
BACK/WEST SIDE OF THIS TROUGH IS A SHARPLY DEFINED VORTICITY
MAXIMUM OVER WESTERN WI EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS IS BRINGING A
FAIRLY FOCUSED AREA OF ASCENT AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES OF
7-8C/KM IN THE 700-550MB LAYER. RADAR MOSAIC INDICATES SWATHS OF
MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS IN CENTRAL/NORTHERN WI AND HIGH-RES GUIDANCE
HAS TRENDED UPWARD THE PAST FEW HOURS IN KEEPING THIS INTACT
ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH SATELLITE TRENDS SUPPORT. WITH A VERY
TRACKABLE FEATURE SUCH AS THIS /ALMOST REMINISCENT OF THE CLIPPERS
OF LAST WINTER/...HAVE TIMED THIS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING WITH ANY ONE PLACE IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST
INDIANA HAVING AN APPROXIMATELY 3 HOUR WINDOW OF SOME OFF AND ON
LIGHT RAIN. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS PORTER COUNTY WHICH LOOKS TO
REMAIN UNDER A LAKE EFFECT FETCH WITH HIGH ENOUGH INVERSION LEVELS
OF 8000 FT TO SUPPORT PERSISTENT SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY-MID
AFTERNOON.
THIS MID-LEVEL WAVE THIS MORNING EVEN HAS A SURFACE REFLECTION WHICH
BASICALLY IS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL ESTABLISH THE CLOUDS THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY
AS WELL AS KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM CLIMBING THIS MORNING. FORECAST
HIGHS ARE 8 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW MID-OCTOBER NORMALS. THE CLOUDS
WILL PROBABLY HANG TO NEAR SUNDOWN FOR THE EASTERN FORECAST
AREA...WITH AREAS OF NORTHWEST INDIANA LIKELY TO REMAIN UNDER LAKE
CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE EVENING AND POSSIBLY ALL NIGHT.
.TONIGHT...
WHILE THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES FOR WHEN LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS SCATTER
IN FAR NORTHWEST INDIANA...THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD
SEE FAIRLY DRAMATIC CLEARING LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVE. CLEARING GOING INTO THE NIGHT WITH A 1023MB HIGH SETTLING
OVERHEAD OFFERS THE BEST POTENTIAL SO FAR FOR A WIDESPREAD FROST.
HAVE COLLABORATED WITH NEIGHBORING NWS OFFICES AND ISSUED A FROST
ADVISORY. WILL GO AHEAD AND INCLUDE COOK COUNTY TOO BUT THAT WILL
BE FOR MAINLY OUTLYING AREAS. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS PROBABLE FOR AT
LEAST PATCHY LOCATIONS IN NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS TO DIP TO OR
BELOW FREEZING...SO WITHIN THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES AN UPGRADE
TO A FREEZE WARNING WOULD BE NEEDED TODAY.
.SUNDAY AND MONDAY...
WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ONE MORE SYSTEM IN THIS CURRENT WAVE TRAIN
IS FORECAST TO DROP THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE
WARM SECTOR PART OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE AREA
DURING SUNDAY...A PATTERN SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AND SIMILARLY WE
SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.
THIS ALONG WITH THE COOL STARTING POINT LOOK TO KEEP TEMPS DOWN
FROM WHAT THE 850-925MB CLIMATOLOGICALLY WOULD YIELD. HAVE HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. THE AIR LOOKS DRY AT FIRST BUT DURING
SUNDAY NIGHT THERE IS A LITTLE BETTER POTENTIAL TO RATTLE OUT
SOME LIGHT RAIN THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS INDICATED. WINDS AND
CLOUD SHOULD KEEP SUNDAY NIGHT TEMPS FROM DROPPING MUCH.
THE SYSTEM COLD FRONT PASSES DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH CONTINUED
SCATTERED SHOWER CHANCES. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDS AND IT LOOKS LIKE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS INTO NORTHWEST
INDIANA AND POSSIBLY EVEN FAR NORTHEAST ILLINOIS DEPENDING ON HOW
VEERED THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS.
.NEXT WEEK...
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST LOOKS FAIRLY QUIET AS THE AMPLIFIED
PATTERN CONTINUES BUT WE GET UNDER A SLOWING UPPER RIDGE DURING THIS
TIME. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO GRADUALLY MODERATE IN THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK WITH CERTAINLY THE POSSIBILITY TO WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL
GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN FORECAST BY MOST OF THE LONG RANGE
MODELS.
MTF
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...
* MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THRU 22Z...THEN STEADILY LIFT TOWARDS
VFR CONDS ARND SUNSET.
* NORTH WINDS UP TO 10KT...THEN FURTHER DIMINISHING TO NEAR CALM
CONDS OVERNIGHT.
BEACHLER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
VISIBLE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER ACROSS
THE REGION...WITH MOST CIGS ARND 2300-2800FT AGL. SOME DRY AIR IS
BEGINNING TO WORK INTO SOUTHERN WISC AND WILL EVENTUALLY ARRIVE
ACROSS NORTHERN IL AND HELP TO START BREAKING UP THE OVC CONDS
INTO A BKN DECK ARND 22Z AND ALSO LIFT CIG BASES UP TO ARND
3500-4000FT AGL. THE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO SLACKEN LATER THIS
EVENING...AS ADDTL DRY AIR FURTHER SCOURS THE CLOUDS. EXPECT NEAR
CALM CONDS TO DEVELOP BY 8Z SUN AND MINIMAL CLOUD COVER. WINDS
ARND DAYBREAK SUN BEGIN TO TURN SOUTHWEST WITH SOME GUSTS
DEVELOPING BY MIDDAY SUN TO ARND 16KT.
BEACHLER
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR/SPEED.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS STEADILY IMPROVING TO VFR CONDS
LATER THIS EVE. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN PRECISE TIMING OF CIGS
LIFTING TO VFR.
BEACHLER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
* SUNDAY NIGHT...CHANCE OF SHRA.
* MONDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA. WEST WINDS BECOMING NORTH.
* TUESDAY...DRY/VFR. NORTHEAST WINDS.
* WEDNESDAY...DRY/VFR. EAST WINDS.
* THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DRY/VFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...
111 PM CDT
IN THE NEAR TERM...HAVE ALLOWED GALE WARNING FOR THE LAKE MICHIGAN
OPEN WATERS TO EXPIRE AT 1 PM CDT...AS ISALLOBARIC (PRESSURE CHANGE)
GRADIENT HAS WEAKENED AND OBSERVED GUSTS HAVE EASED INTO THE 25-30
KT RANGE OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON
AND THEN MORE QUICKLY THIS EVENING/TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE FROM
WESTERN ONTARIO TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS MOVES STEADILY EAST-SOUTHEAST
TO THE WESTERN LAKES AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS
WILL RESULT IN 30 KT NORTH WINDS DIMINISHING QUICKLY THIS EVENING...
AND BACKING TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST BY MORNING AS THE SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS PASSES. CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HEADLINES FOR THE IL
NEARSHORE WATERS WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 4 AM CDT...WITH THE
IN WATERS CONTINUING THROUGH 10 AM CDT SUNDAY MORNING AS WAVES
SLOWLY SUBSIDE AFTER THIS PERIOD OF STRONG NORTHERLY FETCH.
LIGHT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE SHORT
LIVED HOWEVER...AS THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE CURRENT WEATHER
PATTERN CONTINUES WITH ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPING OVER CANADA AND MOVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PICK UP INTO THE 20-25 KT RANGE PERHAPS WITH A
FEW GUSTS TO 30 KT AGAIN SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF THIS LOW AND TRAILING
COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
WINDS SHIFT NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH A PERIOD OF 25 KTS LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS ANOTHER HIGH SPREADS ACROSS ONTARIO AND
EVENTUALLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
RATZER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...FROST ADVISORY...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-
ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022-
ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039...3 AM SUNDAY TO 8 AM SUNDAY.
IN...FROST ADVISORY...INZ019...3 AM SUNDAY TO 8 AM SUNDAY.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 4 AM SUNDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 10 AM SUNDAY.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
111 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014
.DISCUSSION...
958 AM CDT
FOR MORNING UPDATE...
INCREASED POPS MARKEDLY ACROSS NORTHEAST IL AND NORTHWEST INDIANA
THROUGH REMAINDER OF THE MORNING HOURS...WITH SOLID AREA OF RAIN
MOVING SOUTHWARD OUT OF SOUTHEASTERN WISCONSIN IN ASSOCIATION WITH
DEEP MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT IS DIGGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. RAPID-REFRESH (HRRR) SEEMS TO HAVE A DECENT
HANDLE ON THIS AREA OF RAIN...WITH THE HRRR AND TIMING OF TRAILING
EDGE OF PRECIP FROM RADAR SUGGESTING RAIN WILL END ACROSS CHICAGO
AREA AROUND NOON...AND DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON FARTHER SOUTHEAST.
SOME LAKE EFFECT SPRINKLES WILL LIKELY LINGER ACROSS NORTHWEST
INDIANA FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT
A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LOWERING BEHIND THIS
RATHER STOUT WAVE THIS AFTERNOON SIGNIFICANTLY LIMITING CLOUD DEPTH
LATER ON. THIS IS ALSO EXPECTED TO HELP OPEN UP MORE HOLES IN
EXTENSIVE STRATOCU SHIELD UPSTREAM ACROSS WI...THOUGH WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR SATELLITE TRENDS AS OUR CURRENT FORECAST INDICATES LESS
CLOUD COVER BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. IF CLOUD COVER REMAINS MORE
EXTENSIVE MAY HAVE TO REVISIT HIGH TEMPS TOO...WITH COOL ADVECTION
CURRENTLY FEEDING AIR IN FROM WISCONSIN WHICH HAS TEMPS ONLY IN THE
LOW-MID 40S.
RATZER
//PREV DISCUSSION...
323 AM CDT
WITH 12 OF THE 17 DAYS SO FAR THIS MONTH WITH PRECIPITATION
/INCLUDING ONE WITH A LITTLE SNOW/...WE REMAIN IN THAT SAME THEME
WITH CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO KICK OFF THE WEEKEND THIS
MORNING AND THEN TO END IT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THAT ALONG
WITH AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND INFLUENCE ON TEMPERATURES THIS
WEEKEND WERE THE MAIN EMPHASIS IN THIS FORECAST.
.TODAY...
THE TWO UPPER LOWS THAT BROUGHT PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER TO THE LOCAL
AREA OVER THIS PAST WEEK HAVE MERGED AS A BROADER UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES. CHARGING DOWN THE
BACK/WEST SIDE OF THIS TROUGH IS A SHARPLY DEFINED VORTICITY
MAXIMUM OVER WESTERN WI EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS IS BRINGING A
FAIRLY FOCUSED AREA OF ASCENT AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES OF
7-8C/KM IN THE 700-550MB LAYER. RADAR MOSAIC INDICATES SWATHS OF
MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS IN CENTRAL/NORTHERN WI AND HIGH-RES GUIDANCE
HAS TRENDED UPWARD THE PAST FEW HOURS IN KEEPING THIS INTACT
ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH SATELLITE TRENDS SUPPORT. WITH A VERY
TRACKABLE FEATURE SUCH AS THIS /ALMOST REMINISCENT OF THE CLIPPERS
OF LAST WINTER/...HAVE TIMED THIS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING WITH ANY ONE PLACE IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST
INDIANA HAVING AN APPROXIMATELY 3 HOUR WINDOW OF SOME OFF AND ON
LIGHT RAIN. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS PORTER COUNTY WHICH LOOKS TO
REMAIN UNDER A LAKE EFFECT FETCH WITH HIGH ENOUGH INVERSION LEVELS
OF 8000 FT TO SUPPORT PERSISTENT SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY-MID
AFTERNOON.
THIS MID-LEVEL WAVE THIS MORNING EVEN HAS A SURFACE REFLECTION WHICH
BASICALLY IS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL ESTABLISH THE CLOUDS THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY
AS WELL AS KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM CLIMBING THIS MORNING. FORECAST
HIGHS ARE 8 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW MID-OCTOBER NORMALS. THE CLOUDS
WILL PROBABLY HANG TO NEAR SUNDOWN FOR THE EASTERN FORECAST
AREA...WITH AREAS OF NORTHWEST INDIANA LIKELY TO REMAIN UNDER LAKE
CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE EVENING AND POSSIBLY ALL NIGHT.
.TONIGHT...
WHILE THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES FOR WHEN LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS SCATTER
IN FAR NORTHWEST INDIANA...THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD
SEE FAIRLY DRAMATIC CLEARING LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVE. CLEARING GOING INTO THE NIGHT WITH A 1023MB HIGH SETTLING
OVERHEAD OFFERS THE BEST POTENTIAL SO FAR FOR A WIDESPREAD FROST.
HAVE COLLABORATED WITH NEIGHBORING NWS OFFICES AND ISSUED A FROST
ADVISORY. WILL GO AHEAD AND INCLUDE COOK COUNTY TOO BUT THAT WILL
BE FOR MAINLY OUTLYING AREAS. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS PROBABLE FOR AT
LEAST PATCHY LOCATIONS IN NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS TO DIP TO OR
BELOW FREEZING...SO WITHIN THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES AN UPGRADE
TO A FREEZE WARNING WOULD BE NEEDED TODAY.
.SUNDAY AND MONDAY...
WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ONE MORE SYSTEM IN THIS CURRENT WAVE TRAIN
IS FORECAST TO DROP THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE
WARM SECTOR PART OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE AREA
DURING SUNDAY...A PATTERN SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AND SIMILARLY WE
SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.
THIS ALONG WITH THE COOL STARTING POINT LOOK TO KEEP TEMPS DOWN
FROM WHAT THE 850-925MB CLIMATOLOGICALLY WOULD YIELD. HAVE HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. THE AIR LOOKS DRY AT FIRST BUT DURING
SUNDAY NIGHT THERE IS A LITTLE BETTER POTENTIAL TO RATTLE OUT
SOME LIGHT RAIN THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS INDICATED. WINDS AND
CLOUD SHOULD KEEP SUNDAY NIGHT TEMPS FROM DROPPING MUCH.
THE SYSTEM COLD FRONT PASSES DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH CONTINUED
SCATTERED SHOWER CHANCES. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDS AND IT LOOKS LIKE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS INTO NORTHWEST
INDIANA AND POSSIBLY EVEN FAR NORTHEAST ILLINOIS DEPENDING ON HOW
VEERED THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS.
.NEXT WEEK...
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST LOOKS FAIRLY QUIET AS THE AMPLIFIED
PATTERN CONTINUES BUT WE GET UNDER A SLOWING UPPER RIDGE DURING THIS
TIME. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO GRADUALLY MODERATE IN THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK WITH CERTAINLY THE POSSIBILITY TO WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL
GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN FORECAST BY MOST OF THE LONG RANGE
MODELS.
MTF
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THRU 22Z...THEN STEADILY LIFT TOWARDS
VFR CONDS ARND SUNSET.
* NORTH WINDS UP TO 12KT AND GUSTS TO 17KT...DIMINISHING TO ARND
10KT BY 22Z. THEN FURTHER DIMINISHING TO NEAR CALM CONDS
OVERNIGHT.
BEACHLER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
VISIBLE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER ACROSS
THE REGION...WITH MOST CIGS ARND 2300-2800FT AGL. SOME DRY AIR IS
BEGINNING TO WORK INTO SOUTHERN WISC AND WILL EVENTUALLY ARRIVE
ACROSS NORTHERN IL AND HELP TO START BREAKING UP THE OVC CONDS
INTO A BKN DECK ARND 22Z AND ALSO LIFT CIG BASES UP TO ARND
3500-4000FT AGL. THE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO SLACKEN LATER THIS
EVENING...AS ADDTL DRY AIR FURTHER SCOURS THE CLOUDS. EXPECT NEAR
CALM CONDS TO DEVELOP BY 8Z SUN AND MINIMAL CLOUD COVER. WINDS
ARND DAYBREAK SUN BEGIN TO TURN SOUTHWEST WITH SOME GUSTS
DEVELOPING BY MIDDAY SUN TO ARND 16KT.
BEACHLER
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR/SPEED.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS STEADILY IMPROVING TO VFR CONDS
LATER THIS EVE. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN PRECISE TIMING OF CIGS
LIFTING TO VFR.
BEACHLER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
* SUNDAY NIGHT...CHANCE OF SHRA.
* MONDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA. WEST WINDS BECOMING NORTH.
* TUESDAY...DRY/VFR. NORTHEAST WINDS.
* WEDNESDAY...DRY/VFR. EAST WINDS.
* THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DRY/VFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...
111 PM CDT
IN THE NEAR TERM...HAVE ALLOWED GALE WARNING FOR THE LAKE MICHIGAN
OPEN WATERS TO EXPIRE AT 1 PM CDT...AS ISALLOBARIC (PRESSURE CHANGE)
GRADIENT HAS WEAKENED AND OBSERVED GUSTS HAVE EASED INTO THE 25-30
KT RANGE OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON
AND THEN MORE QUICKLY THIS EVENING/TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE FROM
WESTERN ONTARIO TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS MOVES STEADILY EAST-SOUTHEAST
TO THE WESTERN LAKES AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS
WILL RESULT IN 30 KT NORTH WINDS DIMINISHING QUICKLY THIS EVENING...
AND BACKING TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST BY MORNING AS THE SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS PASSES. CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HEADLINES FOR THE IL
NEARSHORE WATERS WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 4 AM CDT...WITH THE
IN WATERS CONTINUING THROUGH 10 AM CDT SUNDAY MORNING AS WAVES
SLOWLY SUBSIDE AFTER THIS PERIOD OF STRONG NORTHERLY FETCH.
LIGHT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE SHORT
LIVED HOWEVER...AS THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE CURRENT WEATHER
PATTERN CONTINUES WITH ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPING OVER CANADA AND MOVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PICK UP INTO THE 20-25 KT RANGE PERHAPS WITH A
FEW GUSTS TO 30 KT AGAIN SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF THIS LOW AND TRAILING
COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
WINDS SHIFT NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH A PERIOD OF 25 KTS LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS ANOTHER HIGH SPREADS ACROSS ONTARIO AND
EVENTUALLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
RATZER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...FROST ADVISORY...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-
ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022-
ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039...3 AM SUNDAY TO 8 AM SUNDAY.
IN...FROST ADVISORY...INZ019...3 AM SUNDAY TO 8 AM SUNDAY.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 4 AM SUNDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 10 AM SUNDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
107 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014
.DISCUSSION...
958 AM CDT
FOR MORNING UPDATE...
INCREASED POPS MARKEDLY ACROSS NORTHEAST IL AND NORTHWEST INDIANA
THROUGH REMAINDER OF THE MORNING HOURS...WITH SOLID AREA OF RAIN
MOVING SOUTHWARD OUT OF SOUTHEASTERN WISCONSIN IN ASSOCIATION WITH
DEEP MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT IS DIGGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. RAPID-REFRESH (HRRR) SEEMS TO HAVE A DECENT
HANDLE ON THIS AREA OF RAIN...WITH THE HRRR AND TIMING OF TRAILING
EDGE OF PRECIP FROM RADAR SUGGESTING RAIN WILL END ACROSS CHICAGO
AREA AROUND NOON...AND DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON FARTHER SOUTHEAST.
SOME LAKE EFFECT SPRINKLES WILL LIKELY LINGER ACROSS NORTHWEST
INDIANA FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT
A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LOWERING BEHIND THIS
RATHER STOUT WAVE THIS AFTERNOON SIGNIFICANTLY LIMITING CLOUD DEPTH
LATER ON. THIS IS ALSO EXPECTED TO HELP OPEN UP MORE HOLES IN
EXTENSIVE STRATOCU SHIELD UPSTREAM ACROSS WI...THOUGH WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR SATELLITE TRENDS AS OUR CURRENT FORECAST INDICATES LESS
CLOUD COVER BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. IF CLOUD COVER REMAINS MORE
EXTENSIVE MAY HAVE TO REVISIT HIGH TEMPS TOO...WITH COOL ADVECTION
CURRENTLY FEEDING AIR IN FROM WISCONSIN WHICH HAS TEMPS ONLY IN THE
LOW-MID 40S.
RATZER
//PREV DISCUSSION...
323 AM CDT
WITH 12 OF THE 17 DAYS SO FAR THIS MONTH WITH PRECIPITATION
/INCLUDING ONE WITH A LITTLE SNOW/...WE REMAIN IN THAT SAME THEME
WITH CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO KICK OFF THE WEEKEND THIS
MORNING AND THEN TO END IT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THAT ALONG
WITH AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND INFLUENCE ON TEMPERATURES THIS
WEEKEND WERE THE MAIN EMPHASIS IN THIS FORECAST.
.TODAY...
THE TWO UPPER LOWS THAT BROUGHT PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER TO THE LOCAL
AREA OVER THIS PAST WEEK HAVE MERGED AS A BROADER UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES. CHARGING DOWN THE
BACK/WEST SIDE OF THIS TROUGH IS A SHARPLY DEFINED VORTICITY
MAXIMUM OVER WESTERN WI EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS IS BRINGING A
FAIRLY FOCUSED AREA OF ASCENT AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES OF
7-8C/KM IN THE 700-550MB LAYER. RADAR MOSAIC INDICATES SWATHS OF
MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS IN CENTRAL/NORTHERN WI AND HIGH-RES GUIDANCE
HAS TRENDED UPWARD THE PAST FEW HOURS IN KEEPING THIS INTACT
ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH SATELLITE TRENDS SUPPORT. WITH A VERY
TRACKABLE FEATURE SUCH AS THIS /ALMOST REMINISCENT OF THE CLIPPERS
OF LAST WINTER/...HAVE TIMED THIS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING WITH ANY ONE PLACE IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST
INDIANA HAVING AN APPROXIMATELY 3 HOUR WINDOW OF SOME OFF AND ON
LIGHT RAIN. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS PORTER COUNTY WHICH LOOKS TO
REMAIN UNDER A LAKE EFFECT FETCH WITH HIGH ENOUGH INVERSION LEVELS
OF 8000 FT TO SUPPORT PERSISTENT SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY-MID
AFTERNOON.
THIS MID-LEVEL WAVE THIS MORNING EVEN HAS A SURFACE REFLECTION WHICH
BASICALLY IS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL ESTABLISH THE CLOUDS THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY
AS WELL AS KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM CLIMBING THIS MORNING. FORECAST
HIGHS ARE 8 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW MID-OCTOBER NORMALS. THE CLOUDS
WILL PROBABLY HANG TO NEAR SUNDOWN FOR THE EASTERN FORECAST
AREA...WITH AREAS OF NORTHWEST INDIANA LIKELY TO REMAIN UNDER LAKE
CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE EVENING AND POSSIBLY ALL NIGHT.
.TONIGHT...
WHILE THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES FOR WHEN LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS SCATTER
IN FAR NORTHWEST INDIANA...THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD
SEE FAIRLY DRAMATIC CLEARING LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVE. CLEARING GOING INTO THE NIGHT WITH A 1023MB HIGH SETTLING
OVERHEAD OFFERS THE BEST POTENTIAL SO FAR FOR A WIDESPREAD FROST.
HAVE COLLABORATED WITH NEIGHBORING NWS OFFICES AND ISSUED A FROST
ADVISORY. WILL GO AHEAD AND INCLUDE COOK COUNTY TOO BUT THAT WILL
BE FOR MAINLY OUTLYING AREAS. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS PROBABLE FOR AT
LEAST PATCHY LOCATIONS IN NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS TO DIP TO OR
BELOW FREEZING...SO WITHIN THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES AN UPGRADE
TO A FREEZE WARNING WOULD BE NEEDED TODAY.
.SUNDAY AND MONDAY...
WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ONE MORE SYSTEM IN THIS CURRENT WAVE TRAIN
IS FORECAST TO DROP THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE
WARM SECTOR PART OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE AREA
DURING SUNDAY...A PATTERN SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AND SIMILARLY WE
SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.
THIS ALONG WITH THE COOL STARTING POINT LOOK TO KEEP TEMPS DOWN
FROM WHAT THE 850-925MB CLIMATOLOGICALLY WOULD YIELD. HAVE HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. THE AIR LOOKS DRY AT FIRST BUT DURING
SUNDAY NIGHT THERE IS A LITTLE BETTER POTENTIAL TO RATTLE OUT
SOME LIGHT RAIN THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS INDICATED. WINDS AND
CLOUD SHOULD KEEP SUNDAY NIGHT TEMPS FROM DROPPING MUCH.
THE SYSTEM COLD FRONT PASSES DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH CONTINUED
SCATTERED SHOWER CHANCES. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDS AND IT LOOKS LIKE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS INTO NORTHWEST
INDIANA AND POSSIBLY EVEN FAR NORTHEAST ILLINOIS DEPENDING ON HOW
VEERED THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS.
.NEXT WEEK...
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST LOOKS FAIRLY QUIET AS THE AMPLIFIED
PATTERN CONTINUES BUT WE GET UNDER A SLOWING UPPER RIDGE DURING THIS
TIME. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO GRADUALLY MODERATE IN THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK WITH CERTAINLY THE POSSIBILITY TO WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL
GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN FORECAST BY MOST OF THE LONG RANGE
MODELS.
MTF
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THRU 22Z...THEN STEADILY LIFT TOWARDS
VFR CONDS ARND SUNSET.
* NORTH WINDS UP TO 12KT AND GUSTS TO 17KT...DIMINISHING TO ARND
10KT BY 22Z. THEN FURTHER DIMINISHING TO NEAR CALM CONDS
OVERNIGHT.
BEACHLER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
VISIBLE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER ACROSS
THE REGION...WITH MOST CIGS ARND 2300-2800FT AGL. SOME DRY AIR IS
BEGINNING TO WORK INTO SOUTHERN WISC AND WILL EVENTUALLY ARRIVE
ACROSS NORTHERN IL AND HELP TO START BREAKING UP THE OVC CONDS
INTO A BKN DECK ARND 22Z AND ALSO LIFT CIG BASES UP TO ARND
3500-4000FT AGL. THE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO SLACKEN LATER THIS
EVENING...AS ADDTL DRY AIR FURTHER SCOURS THE CLOUDS. EXPECT NEAR
CALM CONDS TO DEVELOP BY 8Z SUN AND MINIMAL CLOUD COVER. WINDS
ARND DAYBREAK SUN BEGIN TO TURN SOUTHWEST WITH SOME GUSTS
DEVELOPING BY MIDDAY SUN TO ARND 16KT.
BEACHLER
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR/SPEED.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS STEADILY IMPROVING TO VFR CONDS
LATER THIS EVE. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN PRECISE TIMING OF CIGS
LIFTING TO VFR.
BEACHLER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
* SUNDAY NIGHT...CHANCE OF SHRA.
* MONDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA. WEST WINDS BECOMING NORTH.
* TUESDAY...DRY/VFR. NORTHEAST WINDS.
* WEDNESDAY...DRY/VFR. EAST WINDS.
* THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DRY/VFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...
258 PM...LOW PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL DRIFT EAST TODAY BUT REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY THIS WEEKEND. A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING FROM MANITOBA SOUTH TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY. THE GRADIENT
WILL SLOWLY RELAX THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON BUT THEN
RAPIDLY WEAKEN LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. MAINTAINED THE
GALE WARNING AS IS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT ITS POSSIBLE THAT
MAY BE JUST A TAD TOO LONG...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE LAKE.
WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY SUNDAY MORNING THEN STEADILY
INCREASE TO 15-25KT SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT
NORTHWEST MONDAY AND THEN NORTHERLY MONDAY NIGHT AND INCREASE INTO
THE 15-25KT RANGE. CMS
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...FROST ADVISORY...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-
ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022-
ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039...3 AM SUNDAY TO 8 AM SUNDAY.
IN...FROST ADVISORY...INZ019...3 AM SUNDAY TO 8 AM SUNDAY.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-
LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 1 PM SATURDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 4 AM SUNDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 10 AM SUNDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1115 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014
.DISCUSSION...
958 AM CDT
FOR MORNING UPDATE...
INCREASED POPS MARKEDLY ACROSS NORTHEAST IL AND NORTHWEST INDIANA
THROUGH REMAINDER OF THE MORNING HOURS...WITH SOLID AREA OF RAIN
MOVING SOUTHWARD OUT OF SOUTHEASTERN WISCONSIN IN ASSOCIATION WITH
DEEP MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT IS DIGGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. RAPID-REFRESH (HRRR) SEEMS TO HAVE A DECENT
HANDLE ON THIS AREA OF RAIN...WITH THE HRRR AND TIMING OF TRAILING
EDGE OF PRECIP FROM RADAR SUGGESTING RAIN WILL END ACROSS CHICAGO
AREA AROUND NOON...AND DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON FARTHER SOUTHEAST.
SOME LAKE EFFECT SPRINKLES WILL LIKELY LINGER ACROSS NORTHWEST
INDIANA FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT
A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LOWERING BEHIND THIS
RATHER STOUT WAVE THIS AFTERNOON SIGNIFICANTLY LIMITING CLOUD DEPTH
LATER ON. THIS IS ALSO EXPECTED TO HELP OPEN UP MORE HOLES IN
EXTENSIVE STRATOCU SHIELD UPSTREAM ACROSS WI...THOUGH WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR SATELLITE TRENDS AS OUR CURRENT FORECAST INDICATES LESS
CLOUD COVER BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. IF CLOUD COVER REMAINS MORE
EXTENSIVE MAY HAVE TO REVISIT HIGH TEMPS TOO...WITH COOL ADVECTION
CURRENTLY FEEDING AIR IN FROM WISCONSIN WHICH HAS TEMPS ONLY IN THE
LOW-MID 40S.
RATZER
//PREV DISCUSSION...
323 AM CDT
WITH 12 OF THE 17 DAYS SO FAR THIS MONTH WITH PRECIPITATION
/INCLUDING ONE WITH A LITTLE SNOW/...WE REMAIN IN THAT SAME THEME
WITH CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO KICK OFF THE WEEKEND THIS
MORNING AND THEN TO END IT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THAT ALONG
WITH AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND INFLUENCE ON TEMPERATURES THIS
WEEKEND WERE THE MAIN EMPHASIS IN THIS FORECAST.
.TODAY...
THE TWO UPPER LOWS THAT BROUGHT PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER TO THE LOCAL
AREA OVER THIS PAST WEEK HAVE MERGED AS A BROADER UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES. CHARGING DOWN THE
BACK/WEST SIDE OF THIS TROUGH IS A SHARPLY DEFINED VORTICITY
MAXIMUM OVER WESTERN WI EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS IS BRINGING A
FAIRLY FOCUSED AREA OF ASCENT AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES OF
7-8C/KM IN THE 700-550MB LAYER. RADAR MOSAIC INDICATES SWATHS OF
MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS IN CENTRAL/NORTHERN WI AND HIGH-RES GUIDANCE
HAS TRENDED UPWARD THE PAST FEW HOURS IN KEEPING THIS INTACT
ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH SATELLITE TRENDS SUPPORT. WITH A VERY
TRACKABLE FEATURE SUCH AS THIS /ALMOST REMINISCENT OF THE CLIPPERS
OF LAST WINTER/...HAVE TIMED THIS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING WITH ANY ONE PLACE IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST
INDIANA HAVING AN APPROXIMATELY 3 HOUR WINDOW OF SOME OFF AND ON
LIGHT RAIN. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS PORTER COUNTY WHICH LOOKS TO
REMAIN UNDER A LAKE EFFECT FETCH WITH HIGH ENOUGH INVERSION LEVELS
OF 8000 FT TO SUPPORT PERSISTENT SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY-MID
AFTERNOON.
THIS MID-LEVEL WAVE THIS MORNING EVEN HAS A SURFACE REFLECTION WHICH
BASICALLY IS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL ESTABLISH THE CLOUDS THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY
AS WELL AS KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM CLIMBING THIS MORNING. FORECAST
HIGHS ARE 8 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW MID-OCTOBER NORMALS. THE CLOUDS
WILL PROBABLY HANG TO NEAR SUNDOWN FOR THE EASTERN FORECAST
AREA...WITH AREAS OF NORTHWEST INDIANA LIKELY TO REMAIN UNDER LAKE
CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE EVENING AND POSSIBLY ALL NIGHT.
.TONIGHT...
WHILE THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES FOR WHEN LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS SCATTER
IN FAR NORTHWEST INDIANA...THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD
SEE FAIRLY DRAMATIC CLEARING LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVE. CLEARING GOING INTO THE NIGHT WITH A 1023MB HIGH SETTLING
OVERHEAD OFFERS THE BEST POTENTIAL SO FAR FOR A WIDESPREAD FROST.
HAVE COLLABORATED WITH NEIGHBORING NWS OFFICES AND ISSUED A FROST
ADVISORY. WILL GO AHEAD AND INCLUDE COOK COUNTY TOO BUT THAT WILL
BE FOR MAINLY OUTLYING AREAS. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS PROBABLE FOR AT
LEAST PATCHY LOCATIONS IN NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS TO DIP TO OR
BELOW FREEZING...SO WITHIN THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES AN UPGRADE
TO A FREEZE WARNING WOULD BE NEEDED TODAY.
.SUNDAY AND MONDAY...
WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ONE MORE SYSTEM IN THIS CURRENT WAVE TRAIN
IS FORECAST TO DROP THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE
WARM SECTOR PART OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE AREA
DURING SUNDAY...A PATTERN SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AND SIMILARLY WE
SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.
THIS ALONG WITH THE COOL STARTING POINT LOOK TO KEEP TEMPS DOWN
FROM WHAT THE 850-925MB CLIMATOLOGICALLY WOULD YIELD. HAVE HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. THE AIR LOOKS DRY AT FIRST BUT DURING
SUNDAY NIGHT THERE IS A LITTLE BETTER POTENTIAL TO RATTLE OUT
SOME LIGHT RAIN THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS INDICATED. WINDS AND
CLOUD SHOULD KEEP SUNDAY NIGHT TEMPS FROM DROPPING MUCH.
THE SYSTEM COLD FRONT PASSES DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH CONTINUED
SCATTERED SHOWER CHANCES. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDS AND IT LOOKS LIKE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS INTO NORTHWEST
INDIANA AND POSSIBLY EVEN FAR NORTHEAST ILLINOIS DEPENDING ON HOW
VEERED THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS.
.NEXT WEEK...
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST LOOKS FAIRLY QUIET AS THE AMPLIFIED
PATTERN CONTINUES BUT WE GET UNDER A SLOWING UPPER RIDGE DURING THIS
TIME. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO GRADUALLY MODERATE IN THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK WITH CERTAINLY THE POSSIBILITY TO WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL
GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN FORECAST BY MOST OF THE LONG RANGE
MODELS.
MTF
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...
* NORTH WINDS 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT THRU MIDDAY.
* LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE UNTIL JUST BEFORE 17Z.
* MVFR CIGS THRU EARLY AFTERNOON.
* POSSIBLE WIND SHIFT TO NORTH/NORTHEAST LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING.
BEACHLER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING
BRINGING A 2-4 HOUR PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN TO THE TERMINALS. CURRENT
VISIBILITIES WITH THE RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL WI ARE VFR BUT SOME
BRIEF MVFR VIS IS POSSIBLE. MVFR CIGS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA
AND EXPECT PREVAILING MVFR CIGS FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING INTO
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH THERE COULD BE PERIODS WHERE CIGS GO
VFR...POSSIBLY DURING RAIN. CIGS WILL LIFT TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON
THEN SCATTER OUT BY EARLY EVENING WITH JUST HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED
TONIGHT.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL TURN BACK NORTHERLY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AND BEGIN TO GUST INTO THE 18-20KT RANGE MID/LATE MORNING. AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING...THE GRADIENT WILL STEADILY WEAKEN. THUS GUSTS SHOULD
DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS MAY TURN MORE NORTH/
NORTHEAST AT ORD/MDW BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE REGARDING WIND DIRECTION DURING THIS TIME. WINDS WILL
THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR CALM BY MID/LATE EVENING. CMS
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...
* MEDIUM FOR WIND SPEEDS/GUSTS/DIRECTIONS THRU EARLY AFTERNOON...
THEN LOW FOR LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP REMAINING LIGHT...MEDIUM/HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP ENDING BY 17Z.
* HIGH FOR MVFR CIGS THRU EARLY AFTERNOON.
BEACHLER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
* SUNDAY NIGHT...CHANCE OF SHRA.
* MONDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA. WEST WINDS BECOMING NORTH.
* TUESDAY...DRY/VFR. NORTHEAST WINDS.
* WEDNESDAY...DRY/VFR. EAST WINDS.
* THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DRY/VFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...
258 PM...LOW PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL DRIFT EAST TODAY BUT REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY THIS WEEKEND. A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING FROM MANITOBA SOUTH TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY. THE GRADIENT
WILL SLOWLY RELAX THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON BUT THEN
RAPIDLY WEAKEN LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. MAINTAINED THE
GALE WARNING AS IS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT ITS POSSIBLE THAT
MAY BE JUST A TAD TOO LONG...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE LAKE.
WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY SUNDAY MORNING THEN STEADILY
INCREASE TO 15-25KT SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT
NORTHWEST MONDAY AND THEN NORTHERLY MONDAY NIGHT AND INCREASE INTO
THE 15-25KT RANGE. CMS
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...FROST ADVISORY...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-
ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022-
ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039...3 AM SUNDAY TO 8 AM SUNDAY.
IN...FROST ADVISORY...INZ019...3 AM SUNDAY TO 8 AM SUNDAY.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-
LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 1 PM SATURDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 4 AM SUNDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 10 AM SUNDAY.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
958 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014
.DISCUSSION...
958 AM CDT
FOR MORNING UPDATE...
INCREASED POPS MARKEDLY ACROSS NORTHEAST IL AND NORTHWEST INDIANA
THROUGH REMAINDER OF THE MORNING HOURS...WITH SOLID AREA OF RAIN
MOVING SOUTHWARD OUT OF SOUTHEASTERN WISCONSIN IN ASSOCIATION WITH
DEEP MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT IS DIGGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. RAPID-REFRESH (HRRR) SEEMS TO HAVE A DECENT
HANDLE ON THIS AREA OF RAIN...WITH THE HRRR AND TIMING OF TRAILING
EDGE OF PRECIP FROM RADAR SUGGESTING RAIN WILL END ACROSS CHICAGO
AREA AROUND NOON...AND DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON FARTHER SOUTHEAST.
SOME LAKE EFFECT SPRINKLES WILL LIKELY LINGER ACROSS NORTHWEST
INDIANA FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT
A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LOWERING BEHIND THIS
RATHER STOUT WAVE THIS AFTERNOON SIGNIFICANTLY LIMITING CLOUD DEPTH
LATER ON. THIS IS ALSO EXPECTED TO HELP OPEN UP MORE HOLES IN
EXTENSIVE STRATOCU SHIELD UPSTREAM ACROSS WI...THOUGH WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR SATELLITE TRENDS AS OUR CURRENT FORECAST INDICATES LESS
CLOUD COVER BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. IF CLOUD COVER REMAINS MORE
EXTENSIVE MAY HAVE TO REVISIT HIGH TEMPS TOO...WITH COOL ADVECTION
CURRENTLY FEEDING AIR IN FROM WISCONSIN WHICH HAS TEMPS ONLY IN THE
LOW-MID 40S.
RATZER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
323 AM CDT
WITH 12 OF THE 17 DAYS SO FAR THIS MONTH WITH PRECIPITATION
/INCLUDING ONE WITH A LITTLE SNOW/...WE REMAIN IN THAT SAME THEME
WITH CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO KICK OFF THE WEEKEND THIS
MORNING AND THEN TO END IT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THAT ALONG
WITH AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND INFLUENCE ON TEMPERATURES THIS
WEEKEND WERE THE MAIN EMPHASIS IN THIS FORECAST.
.TODAY...
THE TWO UPPER LOWS THAT BROUGHT PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER TO THE LOCAL
AREA OVER THIS PAST WEEK HAVE MERGED AS A BROADER UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES. CHARGING DOWN THE
BACK/WEST SIDE OF THIS TROUGH IS A SHARPLY DEFINED VORTICITY
MAXIMUM OVER WESTERN WI EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS IS BRINGING A
FAIRLY FOCUSED AREA OF ASCENT AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES OF
7-8C/KM IN THE 700-550MB LAYER. RADAR MOSAIC INDICATES SWATHS OF
MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS IN CENTRAL/NORTHERN WI AND HIGH-RES GUIDANCE
HAS TRENDED UPWARD THE PAST FEW HOURS IN KEEPING THIS INTACT
ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH SATELLITE TRENDS SUPPORT. WITH A VERY
TRACKABLE FEATURE SUCH AS THIS /ALMOST REMINISCENT OF THE CLIPPERS
OF LAST WINTER/...HAVE TIMED THIS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING WITH ANY ONE PLACE IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST
INDIANA HAVING AN APPROXIMATELY 3 HOUR WINDOW OF SOME OFF AND ON
LIGHT RAIN. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS PORTER COUNTY WHICH LOOKS TO
REMAIN UNDER A LAKE EFFECT FETCH WITH HIGH ENOUGH INVERSION LEVELS
OF 8000 FT TO SUPPORT PERSISTENT SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY-MID
AFTERNOON.
THIS MID-LEVEL WAVE THIS MORNING EVEN HAS A SURFACE REFLECTION WHICH
BASICALLY IS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL ESTABLISH THE CLOUDS THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY
AS WELL AS KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM CLIMBING THIS MORNING. FORECAST
HIGHS ARE 8 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW MID-OCTOBER NORMALS. THE CLOUDS
WILL PROBABLY HANG TO NEAR SUNDOWN FOR THE EASTERN FORECAST
AREA...WITH AREAS OF NORTHWEST INDIANA LIKELY TO REMAIN UNDER LAKE
CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE EVENING AND POSSIBLY ALL NIGHT.
.TONIGHT...
WHILE THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES FOR WHEN LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS SCATTER
IN FAR NORTHWEST INDIANA...THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD
SEE FAIRLY DRAMATIC CLEARING LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVE. CLEARING GOING INTO THE NIGHT WITH A 1023MB HIGH SETTLING
OVERHEAD OFFERS THE BEST POTENTIAL SO FAR FOR A WIDESPREAD FROST.
HAVE COLLABORATED WITH NEIGHBORING NWS OFFICES AND ISSUED A FROST
ADVISORY. WILL GO AHEAD AND INCLUDE COOK COUNTY TOO BUT THAT WILL
BE FOR MAINLY OUTLYING AREAS. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS PROBABLE FOR AT
LEAST PATCHY LOCATIONS IN NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS TO DIP TO OR
BELOW FREEZING...SO WITHIN THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES AN UPGRADE
TO A FREEZE WARNING WOULD BE NEEDED TODAY.
.SUNDAY AND MONDAY...
WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ONE MORE SYSTEM IN THIS CURRENT WAVE TRAIN
IS FORECAST TO DROP THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE
WARM SECTOR PART OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE AREA
DURING SUNDAY...A PATTERN SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AND SIMILARLY WE
SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.
THIS ALONG WITH THE COOL STARTING POINT LOOK TO KEEP TEMPS DOWN
FROM WHAT THE 850-925MB CLIMATOLOGICALLY WOULD YIELD. HAVE HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. THE AIR LOOKS DRY AT FIRST BUT DURING
SUNDAY NIGHT THERE IS A LITTLE BETTER POTENTIAL TO RATTLE OUT
SOME LIGHT RAIN THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS INDICATED. WINDS AND
CLOUD SHOULD KEEP SUNDAY NIGHT TEMPS FROM DROPPING MUCH.
THE SYSTEM COLD FRONT PASSES DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH CONTINUED
SCATTERED SHOWER CHANCES. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDS AND IT LOOKS LIKE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS INTO NORTHWEST
INDIANA AND POSSIBLY EVEN FAR NORTHEAST ILLINOIS DEPENDING ON HOW
VEERED THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS.
.NEXT WEEK...
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST LOOKS FAIRLY QUIET AS THE AMPLIFIED
PATTERN CONTINUES BUT WE GET UNDER A SLOWING UPPER RIDGE DURING THIS
TIME. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO GRADUALLY MODERATE IN THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK WITH CERTAINLY THE POSSIBILITY TO WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL
GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN FORECAST BY MOST OF THE LONG RANGE
MODELS.
MTF
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 14Z...
* NORTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KT TURNING BACK NORTHERLY THIS MORNING...
WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT THRU MIDDAY.
* LIGHT RAIN HAS ARRIVED AND WILL CONTINUE UNTIL JUST BEFORE 18Z.
* MVFR CIGS THRU EARLY AFTERNOON.
* POSSIBLE WIND SHIFT TO NORTH/NORTHEAST LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING.
BEACHLER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING
BRINGING A 2-4 HOUR PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN TO THE TERMINALS. CURRENT
VISIBILITIES WITH THE RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL WI ARE VFR BUT SOME
BRIEF MVFR VIS IS POSSIBLE. MVFR CIGS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA
AND EXPECT PREVAILING MVFR CIGS FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING INTO
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH THERE COULD BE PERIODS WHERE CIGS GO
VFR...POSSIBLY DURING RAIN. CIGS WILL LIFT TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON
THEN SCATTER OUT BY EARLY EVENING WITH JUST HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED
TONIGHT.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL TURN BACK NORTHERLY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AND BEGIN TO GUST INTO THE 18-20KT RANGE MID/LATE MORNING. AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING...THE GRADIENT WILL STEADILY WEAKEN. THUS GUSTS SHOULD
DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS MAY TURN MORE NORTH/
NORTHEAST AT ORD/MDW BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE REGARDING WIND DIRECTION DURING THIS TIME. WINDS WILL
THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR CALM BY MID/LATE EVENING. CMS
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 14Z...
* MEDIUM FOR WIND SPEEDS/GUSTS/DIRECTIONS THRU EARLY AFTERNOON...
THEN LOW FOR LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP REMAINING LIGHT...MEDIUM/HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP ENDING BY 18Z.
* HIGH FOR MVFR CIGS THRU EARLY AFTERNOON.
BEACHLER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
* SUNDAY NIGHT...CHANCE OF SHRA.
* MONDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA. WEST WINDS BECOMING NORTH.
* TUESDAY...DRY/VFR. NORTHEAST WINDS.
* WEDNESDAY...DRY/VFR. EAST WINDS.
* THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DRY/VFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...
258 PM...LOW PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL DRIFT EAST TODAY BUT REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY THIS WEEKEND. A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING FROM MANITOBA SOUTH TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY. THE GRADIENT
WILL SLOWLY RELAX THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON BUT THEN
RAPIDLY WEAKEN LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. MAINTAINED THE
GALE WARNING AS IS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT ITS POSSIBLE THAT
MAY BE JUST A TAD TOO LONG...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE LAKE.
WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY SUNDAY MORNING THEN STEADILY
INCREASE TO 15-25KT SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT
NORTHWEST MONDAY AND THEN NORTHERLY MONDAY NIGHT AND INCREASE INTO
THE 15-25KT RANGE. CMS
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...FROST ADVISORY...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-
ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022-
ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039...3 AM SUNDAY TO 8 AM SUNDAY.
IN...FROST ADVISORY...INZ019...3 AM SUNDAY TO 8 AM SUNDAY.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-
LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 1 PM SATURDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 4 AM SUNDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 10 AM SUNDAY.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
327 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING LARGE 1025+ MB RIDGE UPSTREAM
ACRS THE EASTERN PLAINS UP INTO THE NORTHWESTERN GRT LKS. ALOFT
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WAS INDICATING VIGOROUS VORT MAX ROLLING
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF EAST CENTRAL IL TOWARD SOUTHEAST INDIANA. TOP-
DOWN DRYING AND ENHANCED SUBSIDENCE ERODING STRATOCU DECK IN PLACE
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...BUT PROCESS OCCURRING SLOWER THAN
EARLIER ANTICIPATED. BUT EXTRAPOLATING CURRENT CLEARING TRENDS ON
VIS SATELLITE LOOP SUGGEST THE LATEST RAP HANDLING OF CLEARING
LINE REACHING JUST EAST OF THE MS RVR BY 23Z ON TRACK OR EVEN A
TOUCH SLOW. EXPECT LATE AFTERNOON HIGHS WHERE CLEARING AND SOME
INSOLATION CAN OCCUR.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014
TONIGHT...INCOMING RIDGE ON TRACK ALONG WITH CLEARING AND SFC WIND
DECOUPLE FOR A CLEAR AND CHILLY NIGHT. WILL KEEP ONGOING FROST
ADVISORY IN PLACE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I80 ON THE IL SIDE OF THE MS
RVR...BUT RACE WILL BE ON WITH PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE HIGH
PRESSURE ALLOWING LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ON IT/S WESTERN FLANK
BEFORE SUNRISE SUNDAY. BUT SOUTHEASTERLY PUSH OF MAIN RIDGE CENTER
WILL ALLOW THE LIGHT/CALM SFC WIND REGIME TO HANG ON LONGEST IN
ONGOING ADVISORY/CLOSEST TO CENTER...SO WILL LET RIDE. COLDEST TEMPS
OF LOWER 30S IN LOWER SFC DPT FIELDS OF THE NORTHEASTERN CWA....BUT
BULK OF THE CWA SHOULD RANGE IN THE MID 30S EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHWEST
FCST AREA WHERE HOPEFULLY THE RETURN FLOW MENTIONED ABOVE WILL
PREVENT TEMPS FROM DIPPING OUT OF THE UPPER 30S.
SUNDAY...INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LLVL RETURN FLOW ALONG WITH
WARM AIR ADVECTION TO BOOST TEMPS IN MOST OF THE CWA INTO THE LOW
TO MID 60S...ALTHOUGH THE NORTHEASTER THIRD COULD BE HELD DOWN IN
THE UPPER 50S. SOME PASSING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON WILL
TEMPER THE WARM UP POTENTIAL SOME...OTHERWISE SOME AREAS COULD
GET INTO THE UPPER 60S OR NEAR 70 DEGREES.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014
LONG TERM ENSEMBLE MODELS SHOW QUIET WEATHER WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE THEME DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60 WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA LATE ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WITH THE BEST
DYNAMICS AND FORCING TO OUR NORTH.. AND LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH.. THIS FRONT WILL MAINLY RESULT IN A WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST. STARTING MONDAY.. A LARGE LONGWAVE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD
OVER THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY AND REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH MID
WEEK. ON THURSDAY.. THE ENSEMBLE MODELS PROG AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TO CUT THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE AND MOVE SOUTHWEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY DRY WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT A
FEW SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE. BY NEXT WEEKEND..A MORE FLATTENED
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER MUCH OF THE NATION. THIS
RIDGE ALONG WITH CONTINUED MODERATION OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PRODUCE WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO PERHAPS
70 DEGREES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014
MVFR TO LOW VFR DECK HANGING ON ACRS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON...BUT CLEARING/BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS SEEN ON VIS
SATELLITE LOOP ACRS NORTHEASTERN IA INTO WI HEADED THIS WAY BY
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CID AND DBQ THE FIRST SITES TO
EXPERIENCE A SCATTER OUT AT 21Z TO 22Z OR SO...BUT MLI AND BRL MAY
NOT CLEAR TIL AFTER 23Z THIS AFTERNOON. NORTH TO NORTHWEST SFC
WINDS OF 6-12 KTS TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET WITH
IN-BUILDING SFC RIDGE. A LOW CHC FOR SOME SHALLOW FOG IN VCNTY OF
THE TAF SITES AFTER 09Z TONIGHT BUT WILL KEEP VSBYS GOOD FOR NOW
WITH UNCERTAINTY. INCREASING SOUTHWEST SFC WINDS OF 7-12 KTS ON
SUNDAY BY LATE MORNING.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR BUREAU-HANCOCK-
HENDERSON-HENRY IL-MCDONOUGH-MERCER-PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-
WARREN.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...KUHL
AVIATION...12
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
1155 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2014
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1154 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014
The AVIATION section has been updated for the 06Z TAF issuance.
UPDATE Issued at 847 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014
Made some adjustments to the low temperature forecast to account
for the cloud mass that will continue to stream through the
Evansville Tri State through much of the night. Not sure where the
back/southwest edge of these clouds will be, but where the clouds
persist it will be a milder night with lows well into the 50s.
Figure there will be enough wind in the Tri State area to keep
temperatures from plummeting too quickly when clear patches pass
by. The latest RAP seemed to have a reasonable idea with the
clouds` impact on temperatures, so used it as a guide for this update.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 222 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014
A dry cold front was crossing our region this afternoon, accompanied
by a gradual wind shift into the northwest. This front will be
followed by cooler temperatures over the weekend. The surface high
pressure center will cross the Lower Ohio Valley on Sunday. Nearly
calm winds and clear skies Sunday morning could allow for the
formation of a little frost. Forecast low temps for Saturday night
will be closer to the cooler mos guidance than the allblend.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 222 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014
Main challenge is with Monday`s forecast. After that, high and dry
regardless of model choice. The GFS seems to be an outlier model
for Monday, from much deeper with the h5 trof moving across the
Great Lakes and Midwest, to its higher overall moisture forecast.
The NAM/SREF/GEM and ECMWF are much drier, and also not as intense
with the westward extension of the trof axis. A slight chance PoP
for isolated showers is no big deal to carry, and we are
essentially surrounded by at least 20s percent (with our
neighboring offices). The dynamics, despite marginal moisture are
respectable. Having said that, most areas may not see a thing
(rainfall wise) as the system and its associated frontal boundary
move through.
After that, high pressure will eventually take control, as a mid
level low moves across the east U.S. (favored model per WPC is an
ECMWF/ECMWF mean blend). Will probably see wrap around cu/strato-
cu Tuesday, especially east of the Mississippi. Rest of the week,
not much in the way of cloud cover as deeper layer drying takes
place. Lots of 60s for highs and 40s for lows.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 1154 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014
Low VFR ceilings will continue to brush southeast by KEVV and KOWB
overnight. A sharp upper-level trough will dive southeast through
the Great Lakes and into the Ohio Valley by the end of the period.
As a result, a large area of lower VFR clouds will descend on the
KEVV and KOWB areas Saturday. Guidance is indicating that a period
of MVFR ceilings will be a strong possibility around midday at
KOWB. Wouldn`t be surprised to see some MVFR conditions at KEVV,
too. Elsewhere...more scattered cu are expected. Northwest winds
will gust into the teens at times throughout the area Saturday.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DRS
AVIATION...DRS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
347 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014
.SHORT TERM... AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT
GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND CONTINUES TO CARRY COOLER AIR INTO SE MICHIGAN
DURING THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A
FROSTY NIGHT AS THE WIND DROPS OFF AND MIN TEMPS DROP BELOW
FREEZING. READINGS AS LOW AS THE UPPER 20S WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
INTERIOR LOWER DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER.
MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS CAPTURE THE AFTERNOON BOUNDARY LAYER
BECOMING INCREASINGLY SHALLOW AND MORE STABLE TOWARD EVENING...A
TREND ILLUSTRATED IN THE 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS BETWEEN APX AND
DTX...AND REFLECTED IN RADAR TREND DURING THE AFTERNOON. FROM
THERE...IT IS MORE DIFFICULT TO GAGE THE MODEL SOUNDING QUALITY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. THE MAIN STICKING POINT LIES WITH THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AT THE BASE OF THE STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION THAT DROPS AS LOW AS 900 MB BY 12Z SUNDAY. THERE IS ABOUT
AN EVEN SPLIT BETWEEN THE CLOUDIER NAM AND RAP MODELS VS THE MORE
OPTIMISTIC GFS AND SREF MEAN. OBSERVATIONAL EVIDENCE SUPPORTS THE
LATTER AS DRIER AIR MAKES INROADS THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES UPSTREAM CLOUDS TAKING ON A CONVINCING
LAKE INFLUENCE AND DIURNAL DEPENDENCY OVER LAND WHICH WILL RESULT IN
NOCTURNAL STRATOCU REMAINING CLOSER TO THE SHORELINES. NEUTRAL
NORTH-NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW ALSO FAVORS LESS CLOUDS IN OUR AREA
WITH A DRY DOWNSLOPE TRAJECTORY FROM NORTHERN LOWER INTO THE SAGINAW
VALLEY AND OVER THE REST OF SE MICHIGAN DURING THE NIGHT. THE
EXCEPTION COULD BE OVER THE NORTHERN/EASTERN THUMB WHERE A LONGER
OVER WATER FETCH WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM ABOUT STURGEON POINT
SOUTHWARD WHICH COULD MAINTAIN GREATER STRATOCU COVERAGE THERE
THROUGH SUNRISE SUNDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM...
MODEST HEIGHT RISES TOMORROW WITH SOME SEMBLANCE OF WARM FRONT
LIFTING NORTH THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN. UNCERTAINTY IS WITH THE AMOUNT
OF LOW LEVEL WARMING AND SCOURING OUT OF REMNANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...AS NAM SOUNDINGS/925 MB RH FIELD STILL PAINTS A POTENTIAL
CLOUD HINDRANCE...AND A SOMEWHAT CONSERVATIVE APPROACH IN MAXES WILL
BE TAKEN OFF THE COLD START AND WITH 925 MB TEMPS FORECASTED TO ONLY
RISE TO 4 C DURING PEAK HEATING...WORTHY OF MAXES AROUND 50/LOWER
50S DE AS HIGH CLOUDS ALSO EXPECTED TO RAMP UP DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY OVER WESTERN CANADA WILL BE CARVING OUT ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY AS WE HEAD
INTO MONDAY. THE RATE OF AMPLIFICATION IS A BIT UNCERTAIN...BUT
850-700 MB THETA-E RIDGE/MOISTURE AXIS LOOKS PRETTY GOOD...ARRIVING
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY...WITH HIGH CHANCE/LOW LIKELY POPS
SEEMING APPROPRIATE. 500 MB COLD CORE (-23 TO-25 C) TO TRAVERSE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...AND LI`S ARE FORECASTED TO DROP
TOWARD ZERO...WITH AROUND 500 J/KG OF CAPE (PER NAM)...AND AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT AND
CONTINUED LOW CHANCE POPS IN CASE AMPLIFICATION IS FASTER...YIELDING
SLIGHTLY SLOWER FRONTAL PASSAGE/DRYING OUT PROCESS.
UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE
SLOWLY-DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH WHICH WILL CUT OFF OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND. THIS WILL LEAD TO
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES...WITH A
RETURN TO HIGHS IN THE 60S POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.MARINE...
OBSERVATIONS LATE THIS AFTERNOON SHOW WIND GUSTS BELOW GALE FORCE
AND WILL DROP THE GALE WARNINGS WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...AS
PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS AND THE COLD ADVECTION DIMINISHES INTO
TONIGHT. MUCH LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW AS SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS SLIDES THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...LEADING TO A SHIFT IN
THE WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL
PASS THROUGH LATE MONDAY. SUSTAINED WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK OUT
AROUND 20 KNOTS SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS DEVELOPING. A STRONG HIGH BUILDING OVER ONTARIO
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL TRANSLATE TO STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS
OVER LAKE HURON...WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE LAKE...WHERE THE FETCH WILL BE GREATEST. HIGHER WAVES
WILL IMPACT NEARSHORE WATERS WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW...AND SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.
&&
.AVIATION...ISSUED 103 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014
//DISCUSSION...
NORTHWEST FLOW CARRYING IN COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPLY CLOUD
COVER OVER SE MICHIGAN DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
STUBBORN MVFR CEILING REMAINS EXPECTED TO MIX INTO THE LOWER END OF
VFR BELOW 5000 FT AND THEN LINGER A LITTLE LONGER INTO THE
EVENING...ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE DTW TERMINAL CORRIDOR. UPSTREAM
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE SOME DRYING AND MIXING OCCURRING OVER THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WHICH STILL SUPPORTS A CLEARING TREND OVER SE
MICHIGAN FROM LATE EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. ONE THING TO
MONITOR WILL BE COVERAGE OF LAKE INDUCED STRATOCU AND/OR TRAPPING OF
STRATOCU BUT LOW LEVEL WIND FROM ABOUT 320 IS TYPICALLY A DRY
TRAJECTORY INTO OUR AREA FROM NORTHERN LOWER. CLOUDS INDUCED BY LAKE
MICHIGAN MAY BECOME MORE RELEVANT DURING SUNDAY MORNING AS THE LOW
LEVEL WIND BACKS TOWARD THE WEST.
//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FEET THROUGH EVENING.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT
HURON INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY...UNTIL 4 AM SUNDAY.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM....SF/DT
MARINE.......SF
AVIATION.....BT
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
236 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 443 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH MUCH OF THE MOISTURE ON WV IMAGERY
BEGINNING TO DIVE SOUTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA. AT THE
SURFACE...A 988MB LOW CENTERED OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC IS STRETCHING A
COLD FRONT SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. BEHIND
THIS COLD FRONT...STRONG NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS ARE IN PLACE OVER
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WITH GUSTS TO 35KTS SEEN AT 2AM OVER
EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THESE GUSTY WINDS HAVE HELPED AID UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT OF THE RAINFALL OVER THE AREA IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NORTH CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN. 24HR RAINFALL AMOUNT AT OUR OFFICE WAS
1.43 INCHES THROUGH 2AM...WHILE LOCATIONS NEAR THE LAKE SHORE IN
MARQUETTE COUNTY HAVE ONLY SEEN AROUND 0.9 INCHES. DID SEE SOME
SNOW MIX IN AT OUR OFFICE (STARTED SHORTLY AFTER 2AM) AND ALSO ON
SOME OF THE WESTERN U.P. WEBCAMS...WHICH MATCHES UP WITH MODEL
WETBULB0 VALUES. BUT...WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT ALREADY SURGING INTO
THE AREA...SEEN IN THE QUICK DIMINISHMENT OF RADAR RETURNS OVER THE
LAST 1-1.5HRS...DO HAVE SOME CONCERN WITH HOW MUCH SNOW WILL
CONTINUE TO MIX IN. THIS IS DUE TO THE STRENGTHENING INVERSION
AROUND 850MB BOTH TRAPPING IN MOISTURE BELOW IT AND ALSO LIMITING
THE TOP OF THE CLOUD TO AROUND -5 TO -7C. THIS IS MARGINAL FOR ICE
CRYSTALS TO BE IN THE CLOUDS AND ALTHOUGH THE WETBULB0 VALUES WOULD
SUPPORT MAINLY SNOW...WILL GO WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE UNCERTAINTY OF ICE CRYSTALS. HAVE BEEN IMPRESSED AT HOW QUICKLY
THE SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED WITH THE DEPARTING DEEP MOISTURE AND
THAT LEADS TO LIMITED CONFIDENCE ON HOW LONG THE
SCATTERED/ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL LINGER TODAY. WITH THE DEEP
MOISTURE GONE...FORCING COMES FROM LAKE SUPERIOR AND UPSLOPE. WITH
THE LAKE INFLUENCE LIMITED DUE TO LAKE SUPERIOR TEMPS AROUND 7C
(CREATING MARGINAL DELTA-T VALUES FOR PURE LAKE EFFECT)...WILL
FOCUS THE BEST POPS WHERE THE ADDED UPSLOPE INFLUENCE IS OVER
THE NORTH CENTRAL U.P. WILL DIMINISH PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH
THE DAY AND HAVE THEM DONE BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...WILL
HOLD ON TO SOME CLOUD COVER INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH THAT MOISTURE
TRAPPED BELOW THE INVERSION...BUT EXPECT DIURNAL MIXING AND
INCREASING LOW LEVEL DRY AIR (FROM THE APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE) TO HELP SCATTER THE CLOUDS OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON AWAY FROM
THE PERSISTENT NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. THE
CLOUDS COMBINED WITH THE THERMAL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
WILL LEAD TO A COOL DAY TODAY AND HAVE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S AND
LOWER 40S.
WITH DECREASING CLOUDS AND THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVING DIRECTLY
OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...EXPECT A GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING PERIOD
THIS EVENING AND FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN. THAT WILL LEAD TO A COLD AND FROSTY NIGHT FOR THE U.P.
AND WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE LOW END OF GUIDANCE FOR LOWS
TONIGHT. ONE THING TO KEEP AN EYE ON IS THE CLOUDS FOR THE NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST CWA THIS EVENING AND INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT
HOURS. WITH THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUING TO PRODUCE SOME
LAKE INFLUENCE WITH THE MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW THE
INVERSION...COULD SEE THE CLOUDS IN THOSE AREAS HANGING ON FOR MUCH
OF THE NIGHT. THUS...DID KEEP TEMPS A LITTLE HIGHER IN SOME OF
THOSE LOCATIONS FOR TONIGHT. FINALLY...HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW MOVING
THROUGH ON SUNDAY NIGHT. THOSE HIGH CLOUDS AND RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPING BEHIND THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH MAY LEAD TO TEMPS
WARMING SLIGHTLY OVER THE WEST TOWARDS DAY BREAK.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 443 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY WILL SHIFT INTO THE
EASTERN LAKES ON SUNDAY AS NEXT SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF
CANADA INTO THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH POSITION OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S.
NOT AS MUCH MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE THIS TIME AROUND AND ONLY EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO ACCOMPANY THE SURFACE/UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE LATE
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY.
BEYOND MONDAY...A MUCH NEEDED BREAK FROM THE WET WEATHER IS ON THE
WAY. UPPER RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL NUDGE JUST FAR
ENOUGH EAST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ALLOWING FOR A STRING OF DRY
AND MILD DAYS FOR THE TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 232 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014
MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY ERODE THIS AFTERNOON. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS
WILL BE CMX AND SAW...AS IWD IS QUICKLY SCATTERING OUT. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY STICK AROUND TO BRING TEMPORARY MVFR CEILINGS TO SAW
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AS WINDS CONTINUE OUT OF THE N.
DRIER AIR FROM A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL LEAD
TO A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT TONIGHT WITH GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS...BEFORE HIGH CLOUDS NEAR FROM THE W LATE IN THE PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 232 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014
DIMINISHING WINDS WILL CONTINUE...AND REMAIN LESS THAN 30KTS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL SINK TO
THE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE AS A LOW ACROSS MANITOBA
SUNDAY MORNING SHIFTS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR SUNDAY NIGHT...AND EXITS
ACROSS LAKE HURON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS MANITOBA EARLY MONDAY TO BUILD ACROSS ONTARIO AND LAKE
SUPERIOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE HIGH BUILD ACROSS QUEBEC
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WHILE KEEPING A RIDGE ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR. AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM MANITOBA
THROUGH HUDSON BAY ON WEDNESDAY WILL DRIFT ACROSS N ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC ON THURSDAY...WITH A TROUGH SETTLING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
738 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 443 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH MUCH OF THE MOISTURE ON WV IMAGERY
BEGINNING TO DIVE SOUTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA. AT THE
SURFACE...A 988MB LOW CENTERED OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC IS STRETCHING A
COLD FRONT SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. BEHIND
THIS COLD FRONT...STRONG NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS ARE IN PLACE OVER
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WITH GUSTS TO 35KTS SEEN AT 2AM OVER
EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THESE GUSTY WINDS HAVE HELPED AID UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT OF THE RAINFALL OVER THE AREA IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NORTH CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN. 24HR RAINFALL AMOUNT AT OUR OFFICE WAS
1.43 INCHES THROUGH 2AM...WHILE LOCATIONS NEAR THE LAKE SHORE IN
MARQUETTE COUNTY HAVE ONLY SEEN AROUND 0.9 INCHES. DID SEE SOME
SNOW MIX IN AT OUR OFFICE (STARTED SHORTLY AFTER 2AM) AND ALSO ON
SOME OF THE WESTERN U.P. WEBCAMS...WHICH MATCHES UP WITH MODEL
WETBULB0 VALUES. BUT...WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT ALREADY SURGING INTO
THE AREA...SEEN IN THE QUICK DIMINISHMENT OF RADAR RETURNS OVER THE
LAST 1-1.5HRS...DO HAVE SOME CONCERN WITH HOW MUCH SNOW WILL
CONTINUE TO MIX IN. THIS IS DUE TO THE STRENGTHENING INVERSION
AROUND 850MB BOTH TRAPPING IN MOISTURE BELOW IT AND ALSO LIMITING
THE TOP OF THE CLOUD TO AROUND -5 TO -7C. THIS IS MARGINAL FOR ICE
CRYSTALS TO BE IN THE CLOUDS AND ALTHOUGH THE WETBULB0 VALUES WOULD
SUPPORT MAINLY SNOW...WILL GO WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE UNCERTAINTY OF ICE CRYSTALS. HAVE BEEN IMPRESSED AT HOW QUICKLY
THE SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED WITH THE DEPARTING DEEP MOISTURE AND
THAT LEADS TO LIMITED CONFIDENCE ON HOW LONG THE
SCATTERED/ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL LINGER TODAY. WITH THE DEEP
MOISTURE GONE...FORCING COMES FROM LAKE SUPERIOR AND UPSLOPE. WITH
THE LAKE INFLUENCE LIMITED DUE TO LAKE SUPERIOR TEMPS AROUND 7C
(CREATING MARGINAL DELTA-T VALUES FOR PURE LAKE EFFECT)...WILL
FOCUS THE BEST POPS WHERE THE ADDED UPSLOPE INFLUENCE IS OVER
THE NORTH CENTRAL U.P. WILL DIMINISH PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH
THE DAY AND HAVE THEM DONE BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...WILL
HOLD ON TO SOME CLOUD COVER INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH THAT MOISTURE
TRAPPED BELOW THE INVERSION...BUT EXPECT DIURNAL MIXING AND
INCREASING LOW LEVEL DRY AIR (FROM THE APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE) TO HELP SCATTER THE CLOUDS OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON AWAY FROM
THE PERSISTENT NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. THE
CLOUDS COMBINED WITH THE THERMAL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
WILL LEAD TO A COOL DAY TODAY AND HAVE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S AND
LOWER 40S.
WITH DECREASING CLOUDS AND THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVING DIRECTLY
OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...EXPECT A GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING PERIOD
THIS EVENING AND FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN. THAT WILL LEAD TO A COLD AND FROSTY NIGHT FOR THE U.P.
AND WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE LOW END OF GUIDANCE FOR LOWS
TONIGHT. ONE THING TO KEEP AN EYE ON IS THE CLOUDS FOR THE NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST CWA THIS EVENING AND INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT
HOURS. WITH THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUING TO PRODUCE SOME
LAKE INFLUENCE WITH THE MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW THE
INVERSION...COULD SEE THE CLOUDS IN THOSE AREAS HANGING ON FOR MUCH
OF THE NIGHT. THUS...DID KEEP TEMPS A LITTLE HIGHER IN SOME OF
THOSE LOCATIONS FOR TONIGHT. FINALLY...HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW MOVING
THROUGH ON SUNDAY NIGHT. THOSE HIGH CLOUDS AND RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPING BEHIND THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH MAY LEAD TO TEMPS
WARMING SLIGHTLY OVER THE WEST TOWARDS DAY BREAK.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 443 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY WILL SHIFT INTO THE
EASTERN LAKES ON SUNDAY AS NEXT SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF
CANADA INTO THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH POSITION OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S.
NOT AS MUCH MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE THIS TIME AROUND AND ONLY EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO ACCOMPANY THE SURFACE/UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE LATE
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY.
BEYOND MONDAY...A MUCH NEEDED BREAK FROM THE WET WEATHER IS ON THE
WAY. UPPER RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL NUDGE JUST FAR
ENOUGH EAST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ALLOWING FOR A STRING OF DRY
AND MILD DAYS FOR THE TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 738 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014
COLD AIR AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND THE SYSTEM THAT
MOVED THROUGH THE AREA YESTERDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MVFR
CEILINGS TO THE THREE TAF SITES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY.
THEN...DRIER AIR FROM A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING INTO THE AREA
WILL LEAD TO DECREASING CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND A MOSTLY
CLEAR NIGHT TONIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 443 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014
A LOW SPINNING OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE A COLD
FRONT EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING.
AS THIS OCCURS...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES TODAY AND LEAD TO QUICKLY DIMINISHING WINDS ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR. WILL CONTINUE THE GALE WARNINGS OVER THE EASTERN LAKE
WITH STILL A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS OCCURRING...BUT IT SHOULD
DIMINISH BELOW GALES AFTER SUNRISE. EXPECT WINDS TO STAY BELOW 25KTS
FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LSZ249>251-266-267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LMZ221-248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...SRF
MARINE...SRF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
444 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 443 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH MUCH OF THE MOISTURE ON WV IMAGERY
BEGINNING TO DIVE SOUTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA. AT THE
SURFACE...A 988MB LOW CENTERED OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC IS STRETCHING A
COLD FRONT SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. BEHIND
THIS COLD FRONT...STRONG NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS ARE IN PLACE OVER
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WITH GUSTS TO 35KTS SEEN AT 2AM OVER
EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THESE GUSTY WINDS HAVE HELPED AID UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT OF THE RAINFALL OVER THE AREA IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NORTH CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN. 24HR RAINFALL AMOUNT AT OUR OFFICE WAS
1.43 INCHES THROUGH 2AM...WHILE LOCATIONS NEAR THE LAKE SHORE IN
MARQUETTE COUNTY HAVE ONLY SEEN AROUND 0.9 INCHES. DID SEE SOME
SNOW MIX IN AT OUR OFFICE (STARTED SHORTLY AFTER 2AM) AND ALSO ON
SOME OF THE WESTERN U.P. WEBCAMS...WHICH MATCHES UP WITH MODEL
WETBULB0 VALUES. BUT...WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT ALREADY SURGING INTO
THE AREA...SEEN IN THE QUICK DIMINISHMENT OF RADAR RETURNS OVER THE
LAST 1-1.5HRS...DO HAVE SOME CONCERN WITH HOW MUCH SNOW WILL
CONTINUE TO MIX IN. THIS IS DUE TO THE STRENGTHENING INVERSION
AROUND 850MB BOTH TRAPPING IN MOISTURE BELOW IT AND ALSO LIMITING
THE TOP OF THE CLOUD TO AROUND -5 TO -7C. THIS IS MARGINAL FOR ICE
CRYSTALS TO BE IN THE CLOUDS AND ALTHOUGH THE WETBULB0 VALUES WOULD
SUPPORT MAINLY SNOW...WILL GO WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE UNCERTAINTY OF ICE CRYSTALS. HAVE BEEN IMPRESSED AT HOW QUICKLY
THE SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED WITH THE DEPARTING DEEP MOISTURE AND
THAT LEADS TO LIMITED CONFIDENCE ON HOW LONG THE
SCATTERED/ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL LINGER TODAY. WITH THE DEEP
MOISTURE GONE...FORCING COMES FROM LAKE SUPERIOR AND UPSLOPE. WITH
THE LAKE INFLUENCE LIMITED DUE TO LAKE SUPERIOR TEMPS AROUND 7C
(CREATING MARGINAL DELTA-T VALUES FOR PURE LAKE EFFECT)...WILL
FOCUS THE BEST POPS WHERE THE ADDED UPSLOPE INFLUENCE IS OVER
THE NORTH CENTRAL U.P. WILL DIMINISH PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH
THE DAY AND HAVE THEM DONE BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...WILL
HOLD ON TO SOME CLOUD COVER INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH THAT MOISTURE
TRAPPED BELOW THE INVERSION...BUT EXPECT DIURNAL MIXING AND
INCREASING LOW LEVEL DRY AIR (FROM THE APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE) TO HELP SCATTER THE CLOUDS OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON AWAY FROM
THE PERSISTENT NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. THE
CLOUDS COMBINED WITH THE THERMAL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
WILL LEAD TO A COOL DAY TODAY AND HAVE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S AND
LOWER 40S.
WITH DECREASING CLOUDS AND THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVING DIRECTLY
OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...EXPECT A GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING PERIOD
THIS EVENING AND FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN. THAT WILL LEAD TO A COLD AND FROSTY NIGHT FOR THE U.P.
AND WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE LOW END OF GUIDANCE FOR LOWS
TONIGHT. ONE THING TO KEEP AN EYE ON IS THE CLOUDS FOR THE NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST CWA THIS EVENING AND INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT
HOURS. WITH THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUING TO PRODUCE SOME
LAKE INFLUENCE WITH THE MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW THE
INVERSION...COULD SEE THE CLOUDS IN THOSE AREAS HANGING ON FOR MUCH
OF THE NIGHT. THUS...DID KEEP TEMPS A LITTLE HIGHER IN SOME OF
THOSE LOCATIONS FOR TONIGHT. FINALLY...HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW MOVING
THROUGH ON SUNDAY NIGHT. THOSE HIGH CLOUDS AND RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPING BEHIND THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH MAY LEAD TO TEMPS
WARMING SLIGHTLY OVER THE WEST TOWARDS DAY BREAK.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 443 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY WILL SHIFT INTO THE
EASTERN LAKES ON SUNDAY AS NEXT SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF
CANADA INTO THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH POSITION OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S.
NOT AS MUCH MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE THIS TIME AROUND AND ONLY EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO ACCOMPANY THE SURFACE/UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE LATE
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY.
BEYOND MONDAY...A MUCH NEEDED BREAK FROM THE WET WEATHER IS ON THE
WAY. UPPER RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL NUDGE JUST FAR
ENOUGH EAST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ALLOWING FOR A STRING OF DRY
AND MILD DAYS FOR THE TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 121 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014
STRONG NORTHERLY UPSLOPE WINDS AND PCPN WILL RESULT IN LOWER END MVFR
THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT AT SAW. AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FLOW
INTO THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY CIGS SHOULD LIFT AOA 2K FT AT ALL
TERMINALS WITH PCPN DIMINISHING OR ENDING. IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR
FIRST AT KCMX AND LAST AT KSAW AS MOISTURE THINS OUT THERE LATEST.
ALTHOUGH LAKE MOISTURE WILL DELAY CLEARING...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE TO VFR AT IWD AND CMX BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND AT SAW
SAT EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 443 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014
A LOW SPINNING OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE A COLD
FRONT EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING.
AS THIS OCCURS...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES TODAY AND LEAD TO QUICKLY DIMINISHING WINDS ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR. WILL CONTINUE THE GALE WARNINGS OVER THE EASTERN LAKE
WITH STILL A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS OCCURRING...BUT IT SHOULD
DIMINISH BELOW GALES AFTER SUNRISE. EXPECT WINDS TO STAY BELOW 25KTS
FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LSZ249>251-266-267.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR LSZ248-265.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LMZ221-248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...SRF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
126 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014
...A COOL WET AND WINDY EVENING WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT LATER
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...
WV LOOP AND IR SATELLITE AND NWS REGIONAL RADAR AND CANADIAN RADAR
LOOPS SHOWING AN EXPANDED AREA OF RAIN SWEEPING NORTH TO SOUTH OVER
UPPER GREAT LAKES. BASED ON SFC OBS...APPEARS BACK EDGE OF RAIN IS
OVR CENTRAL LK SUPERIOR ENE INTO ADJACENT AREAS OF ONTARIO. PRIMARY
SFC LOW IS NOW JUST SOUTH OF JAMES BAY AT AROUND 990MB. NORTH WINDS
OVER THE REGION ARE GUSTING OVER 30 MPH OVER MUCH OF LK SUPERIOR AND
OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN UPR MICHIGAN...WITH 20-30 MPH GUSTS FARTHER
INLAND AND TOWARD LK MICHIGAN. BASED ON UPSTREAM TRENDS...SHORT
TERM MODEL FORECASTS FM NAM/GEM-REGIONAL SEEM IN GOOD SHAPE..AND
HAVE LEANED ON THOSE ALONG WITH THE HRRR FOR DETAILS IN THE NEXT
12-15 HRS. EXPECT A PERIOD OF RAIN AND STRONG WINDS THROUGH AT LEAST
THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE PRECIP DIMINISHES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS
MOISTURE ABOVE H9 DIMINISHES SHARPLY. EVEN WITH THE DECREASE IN
MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE...ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
INTO MUCH OF SATURDAY ALONG WITH A NNW LOW-LEVEL FLOW BTWN DEPARTING
LOW AND APPROACHING SFC HIGH. LAKE ENHANCED PRECIP THIS EVENING
/DELTA T/S AROUND 8C GIVEN SUFFICIENT LARGE SCALE MOISTURE AND LIFT/
SHOULD TRANSITION TO PURE LAKE EFFECT SINCE THERE IS JUST ENOUGH
OVER-WATER INSTABILITY PRESENT AS TEMPS AT INVERSION TOP 900-875MB
FALL TO -5C AFTER 09Z WHILE WATER TEMPS ON AVERAGE ARE AROUND +8C
/PROVIDING DELTA T/S OF 13C/.
BASED ON SOUNDINGS...ANY SNOW POTENTIAL IS BASED ON EXTENT OF
WARMING IN LOWEST PARTS OF THE BLYR. THUS CONTINUED TO USE WBZERO
HEIGHTS TO DETERMINE THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW. APPEARS THAT HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS OF WEST AND CNTRL CWA SEE THE BEST CHANCES FOR SOME
SNOW...BUT WITHOUT DEEPER MOISTURE/LIFTING OCCURRING...SEEMS THAT
TEMPS IN MOIST LAYER MAY NOT BE AS LOW AS -8C OR -10C...SUGGESTING
THERE MAY NOT BE ICE CRYSTALS INTRODUCED FM ALOFT TO LEAD TO BETTER
CHANCES OF SNOW. A WEAK WAVE ALOFT CURRENTLY DROPPING SE OVER CNTRL
MANITOBA MAY PUSH ACROSS WEST CWA LATER TONIGHT RESULTING IN A BIT OF
ADDITIONAL H7-H5 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND LIFT TO HELP OUT THE CAUSE.
EVEN IMPACT FM THAT APPEARS MINIMAL ATTM. OVERALL...CHANCES OF
MEASURABLE SNOW APPEAR MINIMAL WITH THIS SYSTEM.
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH INVERSION AT
H85-H8 ON SATURDAY. KEPT IN SMALL POPS FOR LAKE EFFECT AS SETUP IS
NOT ALL THAT DIFFERENT FM LATE TONIGHT. GRADUALLY...AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA...EXPECT BLYR TO DRY OUT BLO CLOUD BASE
ENOUGH TO RESULT IN ANY LGT PRECIP COMING TO AN END. TEMPS WILL BE
CHILLY AS LOW-LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH IS OVERHEAD. EXPECT MAX TEMPS
MAINLY IN THE 30S...EXCEPT SOME LOW 40S OVER SCNTRL CWA. ADDED TO
THE CHILL WILL BE CONTINUING GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS...
STRONGEST NEAR LK SUPERIOR OVER THE EAST CWA IN THE MORNING.
LIKELY THE BIGGEST POTENTIAL IMPACT FM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WINDS AND
WAVE ACTION ALONG LK SUPERIOR. GIVEN THE HIGH WATER LEVELS ON LAKE
SUPERIOR WHICH ARE THE HIGHEST SINCE THE MID 1990S AND WAVES
BUILDING TO 8-12 FEET INTO THIS EVENING AND THROUGH TONIGHT (HIGHEST
E OF THE KEWEENAW)...MINOR BEACH EROSION AND LOCALIZED FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ON THE BEACHES FROM AROUND MARQUETTE TO GRAND
MARAIS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MENTIONED IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK AND THE GRAPHICAL EHWO.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014
NAM SHOWS A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. 00Z SUN. THERE IS A
SHORTWAVE OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES 00Z SUN THAT AFFECTS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES LATE ON SUN. A 500 MB RIDGE THEN BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS
ON MON. NAM SHOWS SOME DEEPER MOISTURE AND 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE MOVING INTO THE AREA LATE SUN AND THEN MOVING OUT ON
MON. NAM SHOWS SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE ON I290K-I305K
SURFACES MOVING INTO THE AREA SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE
MOVING OUT ON MON. WILL KEEP SOME LOW CHANCE POPS SUN MORNING
GRADUALLY SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA SUN AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AND
THEN DRYING OUT LATE MONDAY. DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE
TEMPERATURES OR THE WEATHER AS THE FORECAST HAD THINGS WELL IN HAND.
IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB TROUGH ON THE WEST
COAST 12Z TUE WITH A RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS AND A TROUGH IN THE ERN
U.S. THE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z WED INTO 12Z
THU WITH RIDGING STAYING IN PLACE INTO FRI. THIS FORECAST PERIOD
WILL BE DRY WITH A WARMING TREND WITH TEMPERATURES GOING ABOVE
NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 121 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014
STRONG NORTHERLY UPSLOPE WINDS AND PCPN WILL RESULT IN LOWER END MVFR
THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT AT SAW. AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FLOW
INTO THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY CIGS SHOULD LIFT AOA 2K FT AT ALL
TERMINALS WITH PCPN DIMINISHING OR ENDING. IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR
FIRST AT KCMX AND LAST AT KSAW AS MOISTURE THINS OUT THERE LATEST.
ALTHOUGH LAKE MOISTURE WILL DELAY CLEARING...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE TO VFR AT IWD AND CMX BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND AT SAW
SAT EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014
GALES 35-40 KTS REMAIN ON TRACK OVER LK SUPERIOR THROUGH TONIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS SOUTHEAST OF JAMES BAY. WINDS JUST STARTING TO
INCREASE ON BAY OF GREEN BAY AND LK MICHIGAN AND EXPECT FREQUENT
GALE GUSTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT THERE. AS A HIGH PRES RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY AFTN...STRONG WINDS WILL DIMINISH
WEST TO EAST. ALTHOUGH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE/SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRACK ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK...NO STRONG WINDS ARE
EXPECTED.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LSZ266-267.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR LSZ244-245-
248>251-264-265.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LMZ221-248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS DULUTH MN
1226 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014
UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM MANITOBA INTO THE DAKOTAS WILL MOVE
EAST TODAY OVER THE NORTHLAND...THEN CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION TONIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND A SHORTWAVE WILL THEN
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
LATEST RADAR SHOWS ECHO COVERAGE DIMINISHING OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS...AND THIS IS IN LINE WITH LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. THE
GRAVITY WAVE INDUCED AREA OF PRECIP OVER THE NORTH SHORE INTO THE
HEAD OF LAKE SUPERIOR HAS ENDED...AS FORECAST BY THE RAP DUE TO DECREASING
MOISTURE AND WIND SPEED. A FAVORABLE SET FOR LAKE EFFECT PRECIP
EXISTS ACROSS NORTHERN ASHLAND/IRON COUNTIES AS FAR AS FETCH AND
DELTA-T VALUES ARE CONCERNED THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...DEEPER MOISTURE
WILL BE QUITE LIMITED AND INVERSION LEVELS WILL BE LOWERING
THROUGH THE MORNING. WE WILL CARRY SOME POPS FOR A TIME THIS
MORNING...BUT THINK THE LACK OF MOISTURE WILL SHUT DOWN ANY LAKE
EFFECT LATER THIS MORNING. THERE WERE STILL PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND AND UPSTREAM OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO THIS MORNING. THE
RAP DOES SHOW THESE CLOUDS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THROUGH THE
DAY...AND WE EXPECT CLEARING FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH THE DAY. MORE
SUN IS EXPECTED EARLIER FROM THE NORTH SHORE CLOSE TO THE LAKE
DOWN TOWARD THE TWIN PORTS DUE TO SUBSIDENCE DOWN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.
CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING...THEN CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
AS A SHORTWAVE AND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE IN. THE AIRMASS IS
INITIALLY QUITE DRY...SO WE DELAYED ANY POPS UNTIL LATE TONIGHT
OVER NORTHERN AREAS. WE HAVE A CHANCE OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF
THE REGION SUNDAY...WITH LOW POPS SOUTH AND HIGHER POPS FAR NORTH.
RAINFALL WILL BE QUITE LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH MOST AREAS ONLY
RECEIVING A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM NW ONTARIO TO THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. ITS COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE NORTHLAND. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
OVER THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT FROM THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS ON MONDAY TO THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES BY TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING WARMER WEATHER TO THE REGION FOR
THE MIDDLE AND LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY...THEY WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT 5
TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
A PASSING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE COULD BRING SHOWERS TO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE GFS AND GEM ARE MUCH DRIER THAN THE
ECMWF...SO THE LOW PCPN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST ARE PRIMARILY A
REFLECTION OF THE WETTER ECMWF.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014
AFTER THE LOW SCT/BKN DECK MIXES OUT THIS MORNING VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A WEAK FRONT MOVING
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND SUN MORNING. ANY PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT WILL BE LIGHT...AND MAINLY CONFINED TO THE ARROWHEAD.
NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO MENTION RA/VCSH AT THIS POINT...BUT INL
AND HIB MAY NEED VCSH AROUND 12Z SUN MORNING. THERE WILL ALSO BE A
PERIOD OF LLWS AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT...WITH 1500FT WINDS 25
TO 35 KT FROM THE SW AND LIGHT SOUTH WINDS AT THE SFC.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 48 34 56 42 / 10 10 30 10
INL 46 37 59 40 / 10 20 30 0
BRD 49 40 62 42 / 0 10 10 0
HYR 47 31 57 41 / 10 10 20 0
ASX 48 31 56 42 / 10 10 30 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...BJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS DULUTH MN
631 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014
UPDATED FOR THE NEW 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM MANITOBA INTO THE DAKOTAS WILL MOVE
EAST TODAY OVER THE NORTHLAND...THEN CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION TONIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND A SHORTWAVE WILL THEN
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
LATEST RADAR SHOWS ECHO COVERAGE DIMINISHING OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS...AND THIS IS IN LINE WITH LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. THE
GRAVITY WAVE INDUCED AREA OF PRECIP OVER THE NORTH SHORE INTO THE
HEAD OF LAKE SUPERIOR HAS ENDED...AS FORECAST BY THE RAP DUE TO DECREASING
MOISTURE AND WIND SPEED. A FAVORABLE SET FOR LAKE EFFECT PRECIP
EXISTS ACROSS NORTHERN ASHLAND/IRON COUNTIES AS FAR AS FETCH AND
DELTA-T VALUES ARE CONCERNED THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...DEEPER MOISTURE
WILL BE QUITE LIMITED AND INVERSION LEVELS WILL BE LOWERING
THROUGH THE MORNING. WE WILL CARRY SOME POPS FOR A TIME THIS
MORNING...BUT THINK THE LACK OF MOISTURE WILL SHUT DOWN ANY LAKE
EFFECT LATER THIS MORNING. THERE WERE STILL PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND AND UPSTREAM OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO THIS MORNING. THE
RAP DOES SHOW THESE CLOUDS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THROUGH THE
DAY...AND WE EXPECT CLEARING FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH THE DAY. MORE
SUN IS EXPECTED EARLIER FROM THE NORTH SHORE CLOSE TO THE LAKE
DOWN TOWARD THE TWIN PORTS DUE TO SUBSIDENCE DOWN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.
CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING...THEN CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
AS A SHORTWAVE AND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE IN. THE AIRMASS IS
INITIALLY QUITE DRY...SO WE DELAYED ANY POPS UNTIL LATE TONIGHT
OVER NORTHERN AREAS. WE HAVE A CHANCE OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF
THE REGION SUNDAY...WITH LOW POPS SOUTH AND HIGHER POPS FAR NORTH.
RAINFALL WILL BE QUITE LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH MOST AREAS ONLY
RECEIVING A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM NW ONTARIO TO THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. ITS COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE NORTHLAND. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
OVER THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT FROM THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS ON MONDAY TO THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES BY TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING WARMER WEATHER TO THE REGION FOR
THE MIDDLE AND LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY...THEY WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT 5
TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
A PASSING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE COULD BRING SHOWERS TO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE GFS AND GEM ARE MUCH DRIER THAN THE
ECMWF...SO THE LOW PCPN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST ARE PRIMARILY A
REFLECTION OF THE WETTER ECWMF.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014
MUCH OF NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN HAD OVC MVFR CIGS EARLY THIS
MORNING. THERE SHOULD BE GRADUAL SCATTERING AND LIFTING LATER THIS
MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL
REDEVELOP VFR CONDITIONS BY SOMETIME EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE VFR
WILL THEN CONTINUE INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 48 34 56 42 / 0 10 30 10
INL 46 37 59 40 / 0 20 30 0
BRD 49 40 62 42 / 0 10 10 0
HYR 47 31 57 41 / 0 10 20 0
ASX 48 31 56 42 / 10 10 30 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR LSZ121-140-
146>148.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
605 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014
QUIET SHORT TERM PERIOD AHEAD...WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.
CURRENTLY...WIDESPREAD LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER CAN BE SEEN FROM THE
GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM CANADA. CYCLONICALLY CURVED FLOW WILL REMAIN
OVERHEAD THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...AND MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
SIGNIFICANT DRYING TAKING PLACE IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...BUT
PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND IT WILL
TAKE UNTIL THE ANTI-CYCLONIC CIRCULATION COMBINED WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES ARRIVE TO SCATTER OUT THE CLOUD DECK FROM MID DAY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS UPDATE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT DELAY IN
CLEARING SKIES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE SURFACE TEMPS WILL
BATTLE THIS EXTENDED SKY COVER...SO SLIGHTLY LOWERED THE FORECAST
HIGHS FOR TODAY. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTH INITIALLY...AROUND
5-10 KTS BUT THE ELONGATE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL WORK
ACROSS THE FA TODAY...SO EXPECT A FEW HOURS OF ESSENTIALLY CALM
WINDS /EARLY ACROSS THE WEST...LATER EAST/ BEFORE THEY TURN
SOUTHERLY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014
THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BE MILD AND DRY OVERALL...AS A LARGE
SCALE OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN PREVAILS FOR NEXT WEEK. THE ONLY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BOOKEND THE TIMEFRAME...WITH SUNDAY AND
THURSDAY APPEARING TO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PROVIDE A FEW SHOWERS
DURING THE TRANSITIONS INTO AND OUT OF THE BLOCKING PATTERN.
REGARDING SUNDAY PRECIPITATION CHANCES...MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO
TREND TOWARD A DRIER SOLUTION FOR THE LOCAL AREA...WITH THE BETTER
MOISTURE/FORCING DISPLACED TO THE NORTH/EAST OF THE AREA. HAVE
RETAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FAR NORTHEAST NEAR
LADYSMITH...BUT THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA SHOULD STAY DRY.
BY MONDAY...THE SURFACE LOW SHIFTS WELL EAST OF THE AREA...AND THE
MID LEVEL RIDGE WORKS INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA. HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE 55 TO 65 DEGREE RANGE WILL THEN BE COMMON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
BY THURSDAY...A POTENT LITTLE SHORTWAVE PRESSES ACROSS THE ROCKIES
AND HIGH PLAINS...AND BRINGS AN END TO THE MID LEVEL RIDGING. THE 18.00Z
ECMWF WAS FASTER WITH THIS SCENARIO...AND BROUGHT SHOWERS INTO THE
AREA AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...THE 18.00Z GFS WAS
ABOUT 18 HOURS SLOWER WITH THE BAND OF RAIN. LEANED TOWARD THE
ECMWF ENSEMBLE AS THE PREFERRED SOLUTION....WHICH EXPANDS
PRECIPITATION EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...AND LINGERS IT ON THURSDAY.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...TEMPERATURES ARE UNAFFECTED...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. THE CHANCE OF LOW
TEMPERATURES DIPPING BELOW FREEZING THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD NEXT WEEK IS LOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 554 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014
THE FA WILL REMAIN SOCKED IN WITH MVFR CIGS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MORNING ACROSS THE EAST...AND EVEN LONGER TO THE WEST. THE LATEST
NAM IS FAIRLY PESSIMISTIC IN TIMING THE SCATTERING OF THE CLOUD
DECK TODAY. I DO THINK IT MAY BE OVERDOING THE RH VALUES
INDICATED IN THE MODEL SOUNDINGS...BUT THE RAP HAD A GOOD HANDLE
ON THE CLOUD COVER FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT SO LEANED THAT DIRECTION.
THIS RESULTED IN AN UPDATED FORECAST THAT EXTENDED THE MVFR CIGS
BY A FEW HOURS AT MOST SITES...BUT NOT AS LONG AS THE LATEST NAM
WOULD LIKE TO GO. SO THERE IS SOME DECENT UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF
THE CLOUD DECK SCATTERING. WESTERN MN REMAINS LOCKED IN WITH
THICKER CLOUD COVER SO IT WILL TAKE LONGER FOR IT TO SCATTER OUT.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AXIS WORKS ACROSS THE FA...THEN TURN SOUTHERLY LATER IN
THE PERIOD.
KMSP...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE CEILING WILL START BREAKING UP
AROUND NOON BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT HIGH. NAM SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF THESE CEILINGS LASTING THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. WINDS SW 10-15 KTS.
MON...VFR. WINDS NW 10 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS SE 5-10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...SPD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
306 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM MANITOBA INTO THE DAKOTAS WILL MOVE
EAST TODAY OVER THE NORTHLAND...THEN CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION TONIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND A SHORTWAVE WILL THEN
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
LATEST RADAR SHOWS ECHO COVERAGE DIMINISHING OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS...AND THIS IS IN LINE WITH LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. THE
GRAVITY WAVE INDUCED AREA OF PRECIP OVER THE NORTH SHORE INTO THE
HEAD OF LAKE SUPERIOR HAS ENDED...AS FORECAST BY THE RAP DUE TO DECREASING
MOISTURE AND WIND SPEED. A FAVORABLE SET FOR LAKE EFFECT PRECIP
EXISTS ACROSS NORTHERN ASHLAND/IRON COUNTIES AS FAR AS FETCH AND
DELTA-T VALUES ARE CONCERNED THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...DEEPER MOISTURE
WILL BE QUITE LIMITED AND INVERSION LEVELS WILL BE LOWERING
THROUGH THE MORNING. WE WILL CARRY SOME POPS FOR A TIME THIS
MORNING...BUT THINK THE LACK OF MOISTURE WILL SHUT DOWN ANY LAKE
EFFECT LATER THIS MORNING. THERE WERE STILL PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND AND UPSTREAM OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO THIS MORNING. THE
RAP DOES SHOW THESE CLOUDS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THROUGH THE
DAY...AND WE EXPECT CLEARING FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH THE DAY. MORE
SUN IS EXPECTED EARLIER FROM THE NORTH SHORE CLOSE TO THE LAKE
DOWN TOWARD THE TWIN PORTS DUE TO SUBSIDENCE DOWN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.
CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING...THEN CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
AS A SHORTWAVE AND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE IN. THE AIRMASS IS
INITIALLY QUITE DRY...SO WE DELAYED ANY POPS UNTIL LATE TONIGHT
OVER NORTHERN AREAS. WE HAVE A CHANCE OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF
THE REGION SUNDAY...WITH LOW POPS SOUTH AND HIGHER POPS FAR NORTH.
RAINFALL WILL BE QUITE LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH MOST AREAS ONLY
RECEIVING A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM NW ONTARIO TO THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. ITS COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE NORTHLAND. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
OVER THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT FROM THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS ON MONDAY TO THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES BY TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING WARMER WEATHER TO THE REGION FOR
THE MIDDLE AND LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY...THEY WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT 5
TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
A PASSING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE COULD BRING SHOWERS TO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE GFS AND GEM ARE MUCH DRIER THAN THE
ECMWF...SO THE LOW PCPN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST ARE PRIMARILY A
REFLECTION OF THE WETTER ECWMF.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014
MVFR CIGS WILL BE COMMON ACROSS ALL TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. CIGS WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR BEGINNING AROUND 12Z AT INL...MID-MORNING ACROSS
HIB/BRD/DLH..AND LATE MORNING AT HYR AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE FORECAST AREA. CONDITIONS WILL STAY VFR THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 47 34 56 42 / 0 10 30 10
INL 46 37 58 40 / 0 20 30 0
BRD 50 40 62 42 / 0 10 10 0
HYR 48 31 56 41 / 0 10 20 0
ASX 47 31 55 42 / 10 10 30 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR LSZ121-
146>148.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
LSZ140.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...STEWART/GROCHOCINSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
123 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2014
.SHORT TERM: (Through Tonight)
Issued at 334 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2014
Early morning water vapor imagery and RAP PV analyses both
depicted a strong shortwave located over northern MN and
southwestern ONT. This feature is forecast to dive southward and
southeastward today, moving through parts of central IL before
reaching KY and TN by 00z. This system appears to be
moisture-starved and no pcpn is expected with its passage near the
LSX CWA. Meanwhile, a cool Canadian high pressure center will
build in at the surface today and tonight. The ridge axis should
be nearly overhead by 12z, resulting in good radiational cooling
conditions and rather cool overnight/early morning lows for Sunday
morning. Patchy frost in sheltered areas is not out of the
question.
Kanofsky
.LONG TERM: (Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 334 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2014
Winds become southerly to southwesterly on Sunday once the
aforementioned high pressure center shifts southeastward. Another
shortwave moving through the Great Lakes will lead to increased
precipitation chances from late Sunday night through Monday
afternoon. Models are showing at least some moisture being drawn
into the area ahead of the shortwave, therefore slight chance to
chance PoPs look appropriate at this time.
A pattern resembling an omega block is forecast over the CONUS for
most of next week. Dry easterly or southeasterly surface flow is
expected through the middle of the week across the LSX CWA.
ECMWF/GFS/GEM all agree that the highly amplified upper ridge axis
will shift eastward with time, but initially small differences in
the handling of a weak vort max crossing the Rockies ultimately
lead to large differences between models regarding the large scale
upper air pattern over the central CONUS by next Thursday.
Kanofsky
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 109 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2014
Scattered to broken clouds between 2.5Kft and 3.5Kft will continue
to move southward mainly over Illinois and parts of the eastern
third of Missouri. These clouds are in response to low-level
moisture moving southward between surface high from southern
Minnesota through eastern Nebraska and low center northeast of the
eastern Great Lakes region. Suraace winds of 10 kts with local
gusts of 15 kts can be expected this afternoon over eastern
Missouri and much of Illinois. As the surface high moves southeast
skies will clear this evening over the region.
Specifics for KSTL: Low level moisture from the north continues to
move southward over eastern Missouri and much of Illinois
resulting in scattered to broken layers of clouds. Surface winds
from the north-northwest of 10kts with gusts to 16kts will
diminish this evening. Skies will become mostly clear after
02-0300 UTC period.
Przybylinski
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
632 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2014
.SHORT TERM: (Through Tonight)
Issued at 334 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2014
Early morning water vapor imagery and RAP PV analyses both
depicted a strong shortwave located over northern MN and
southwestern ONT. This feature is forecast to dive southward and
southeastward today, moving through parts of central IL before
reaching KY and TN by 00z. This system appears to be
moisture-starved and no pcpn is expected with its passage near the
LSX CWA. Meanwhile, a cool Canadian high pressure center will
build in at the surface today and tonight. The ridge axis should
be nearly overhead by 12z, resulting in good radiational cooling
conditions and rather cool overnight/early morning lows for Sunday
morning. Patchy frost in sheltered areas is not out of the
question.
Kanofsky
.LONG TERM: (Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 334 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2014
Winds become southerly to southwesterly on Sunday once the
aforementioned high pressure center shifts southeastward. Another
shortwave moving through the Great Lakes will lead to increased
precipitation chances from late Sunday night through Monday
afternoon. Models are showing at least some moisture being drawn
into the area ahead of the shortwave, therefore slight chance to
chance PoPs look appropriate at this time.
A pattern resembling an omega block is forecast over the CONUS for
most of next week. Dry easterly or southeasterly surface flow is
expected through the middle of the week across the LSX CWA.
ECMWF/GFS/GEM all agree that the highly amplified upper ridge axis
will shift eastward with time, but initially small differences in
the handling of a weak vort max crossing the Rockies ultimately
lead to large differences between models regarding the large scale
upper air pattern over the central CONUS by next Thursday.
Kanofsky
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 619 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2014
Fast moving short wave aloft will move through today reinforcing
the cool air and keeping a north northwest wind flow. MVFR clouds
will move quickly across Iowa into UIN by late morning and into
COU by Noon. Guidance keeps the clouds VFR, and given the time of
of arrival and the fact the short wave will be shearing east more
than diving south, will go with this scenario. However an hour or
so of MVRF is possible. High pressure will move in overnight with
light and variable wind. Guidance wants to bring in fog at the
usual suspects (SUS, CPS) about 12z. With 00kt wind and clear sky,
possible, but will leave out for now given the time of expected
formation being at the end of the forecast period.
Specifics for KSTL: VFR expected with a northwest wind today
becoming light and variable overnight as high pressure moves
overhead. Southerly wind returns Sunday moring as the high quickly
moves east.
JPK
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
339 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2014
.SHORT TERM: (Through Tonight)
Issued at 334 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2014
Early morning water vapor imagery and RAP PV analyses both
depicted a strong shortwave located over northern MN and
southwestern ONT. This feature is forecast to dive southward and
southeastward today, moving through parts of central IL before
reaching KY and TN by 00z. This system appears to be
moisture-starved and no pcpn is expected with its passage near the
LSX CWA. Meanwhile, a cool Canadian high pressure center will
build in at the surface today and tonight. The ridge axis should
be nearly overhead by 12z, resulting in good radiational cooling
conditions and rather cool overnight/early morning lows for Sunday
morning. Patchy frost in sheltered areas is not out of the
question.
Kanofsky
.LONG TERM: (Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 334 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2014
Winds become southerly to southwesterly on Sunday once the
aforementioned high pressure center shifts southeastward. Another
shortwave moving through the Great Lakes will lead to increased
precipitation chances from late Sunday night through Monday
afternoon. Models are showing at least some moisture being drawn
into the area ahead of the shortwave, therefore slight chance to
chance PoPs look appropriate at this time.
A pattern resembling an omega block is forecast over the CONUS for
most of next week. Dry easterly or southeasterly surface flow is
expected through the middle of the week across the LSX CWA.
ECMWF/GFS/GEM all agree that the highly amplified upper ridge axis
will shift eastward with time, but initially small differences in
the handling of a weak vort max crossing the Rockies ultimately
lead to large differences between models regarding the large scale
upper air pattern over the central CONUS by next Thursday.
Kanofsky
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1125 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2014
VFR conditions are expected to continue with periods of VFR cloud
cover tonight and tomorrow along and east of the Mississippi
River. Northwest wind below 10kt to continue.
Specifics for KSTL:
VFR conditions expected to continue with a northwest wind.
CVKING
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
938 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 935 PM CDT CDT SUN OCT 19 2014
SKC ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF FGF CWFA EXCEPT FOR THE LOW REGION.
THE RAP WANTS TO MOVE AREA OF LOWER CIGS INTO CWFA BUT HAS BACKED
OFF ON WESTWARD EXPANSION FROM EARLIER RUNS. RAP 925 MB - 850 MB
GTE 90% RH DEPICTS THE LOW CLOUDS WELL...AND CURRENT FORECAST HAS
DECENT HANDLE ON THIS. NEWEST WRINKLE IS THE HRRR AND RAP
GENERATING AREAS OF BR/FG NEAR SUNRISE. WILL NOT ADD ATTM AS NEAR
SFC AIRMASS RELATIVELY DRY...SO EXPECT THAT ANY BR/FG WOULD BE
ISOLD AND SHORT LIVED.
&&
UPDATE ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014
INHERITED FORECAST DOING WELL. ONLY TWEAK IS TO THE TIMING OF THE
CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE EASTERN CWFA IN THE 06Z - 12Z TIME PERIOD.
THE RAP 925MB-850MB RH DEPICTS THE CURRENT CLOUD COVER IN MANITOBA
AND ONTARIO WELL...SO HAVE USED THIS AS GUIDANCE. OTRW NO CHANGE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014
EXPECT FAIR SKIES...SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH
WINDS TURNING MORE NORTHERLY AND DIMINISHING WITH NIGHTFALL.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW PUSHING FROM FAR NORTHWEST ONTARIO
TOWARDS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT AND
ACCOMPANYING SCATTERED BAND OF CLOUDS ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST AND
NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE OVERALL INFLUX OF SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER CANADIAN POLAR AIR
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SLIGHTLY LOWER DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY...BUT WITH LESSER WINDS WE CAN EXPECT APPARENT TEMPERATURES
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT TO REMAIN QUITE PLEASANT.
LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014
TUESDAY...AN APPROACHING H5 SHORTWAVE RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED WARMER
DEEP LAYER THERMAL RIDGE WILL PUSH FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO
WESTERN AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA ON TUESDAY. WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND STEADILY BUILDING WARM AIR ALOFT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
RATCHET WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE
TIMING OF A SHORTWAVE TROF THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS FROM
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. MOST PORTIONS OF THE FA SHOULD SEE
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION AS RAIN SHOWERS...THOUGH WITH THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM AND LACK OF A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
TAP WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS SUGGEST A FLATTENED H5 RIDGE OVER
CENTRAL NOAM WILL KEEP THE CENTRAL NORTHERN PLAINS DRY AND BIT
COOLER OVER THE COMING LATE WEEK PERIOD. HOWEVER TEMPS LOOK TO REMAIN
WELL ABOVE LONG TERM SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014
EXPECT FAIR SKIES AND WEST TO NORTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON... WITH WINDS TURNING FROM
THE NORTH AND DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING. SCATTERED VFR CIGS WILL
TRANSIT ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST AND NORTH-CENTRAL MN FROM 00Z THROUGH
09Z.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...EWENS
SHORT TERM...GUST
LONG TERM...GUST
AVIATION...EWENS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
656 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014
INHERITED FORECAST DOING WELL. ONLY TWEAK IS TO THE TIMING OF THE
CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE EASTERN CWFA IN THE 06Z - 12Z TIME PERIOD.
THE RAP 925MB-850MB RH DEPICTS THE CURRENT CLOUD COVER IN MANITOBA
AND ONTARIO WELL...SO HAVE USED THIS AS GUIDANCE. OTRW NO CHANGE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014
EXPECT FAIR SKIES...SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH
WINDS TURNING MORE NORTHERLY AND DIMINISHING WITH NIGHTFALL.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW PUSHING FROM FAR NORTHWEST ONTARIO
TOWARDS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT AND
ACCOMPANYING SCATTERED BAND OF CLOUDS ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST AND
NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE OVERALL INFLUX OF SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER CANADIAN POLAR AIR
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SLIGHTLY LOWER DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY...BUT WITH LESSER WINDS WE CAN EXPECT APPARENT TEMPERATURES
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT TO REMAIN QUITE PLEASANT.
LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014
TUESDAY...AN APPROACHING H5 SHORTWAVE RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED WARMER
DEEP LAYER THERMAL RIDGE WILL PUSH FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO
WESTERN AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA ON TUESDAY. WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND STEADILY BUILDING WARM AIR ALOFT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
RATCHET WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE
TIMING OF A SHORTWAVE TROF THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS FROM
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. MOST PORTIONS OF THE FA SHOULD SEE
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION AS RAIN SHOWERS...THOUGH WITH THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM AND LACK OF A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
TAP WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS SUGGEST A FLATTENED H5 RIDGE OVER
CENTRAL NOAM WILL KEEP THE CENTRAL NORTHERN PLAINS DRY AND BIT
COOLER OVER THE COMING LATE WEEK PERIOD. HOWEVER TEMPS LOOK TO REMAIN
WELL ABOVE LONG TERM SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014
EXPECT FAIR SKIES AND WEST TO NORTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON... WITH WINDS TURNING FROM
THE NORTH AND DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING. SCATTERED VFR CIGS WILL
TRANSIT ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST AND NORTH-CENTRAL MN FROM 00Z THROUGH
09Z.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014
WINDS DECREASING TO UNDER 10 KTS AND S/B LESS THAN 6 KTS MOST OF
THE OVERNIGHT. CAVU FORECAST EXCEPT KBJI WHERE CLOUDS WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE IN THE 06Z TIME FRAME...BCMG MVFR AFTER 09Z.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...EWENS
SHORT TERM...GUST
LONG TERM...GUST
AVIATION...GUST
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1248 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014
RAPIDLY CLREAING SKIES OVER NORTHCENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN MN WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME SLIGHT ADDITIONAL TEMP GAINS THERE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE CLOUDY TO MOSTLYU CLOYUDY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL OVER THE RED RIVER AND DEVILS LAKE BASINS THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON... WITH CLOUDS CONTINUING A SLOW DECREASE THROUGH THE
EVENING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1015 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014
NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES NEEDED YET THIS FORENOON. LOW LEVEL CLOUD
DECK STILL FIRMLY IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA
WILL VERY SLOWLY ERODE AND SHIFT NOERTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE LATER
AFTERNOON. DAYTIME TEMPS WILL SEE ONLY MODEST GAINS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 610 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014
THE LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO INDICATE CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OVER MOST
OF THE FA THROUGH MOST OF THIS AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD BE SOME
THINNING OF CLOUDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE EDGES OF THE
FA...BUT THE VALLEY SHOULD REMAIN CLOUDY THROUGH MOST OF TODAY.
HAVE ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS TO INDICATE MORE CLOUDS TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014
THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE CLOUD TRENDS TODAY AND TEMPS OVERALL.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT...WITH THEN NAM HAVING A
BETTER HANDLE ON THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS OVER THE REGION NOW.
FOR TODAY...A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL BE OVER THE AREA
TODAY...AND THIS SHOULD TRAP CLOUDS AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST.
EXPECTING A CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY MORNING FOR ALL AREAS. THERE
SHOULD BE SOME THINNING OF CLOUDS ON THE WEST AND EASTERN EDGES OF
THE FA AFTER 18Z...BUT CLOUDS COULD REMAIN MOST OF THE AFTERNOON
IN THE VALLEY. HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST IN THE DIRECTION OF MORE
CLOUDS...AND TWEAKED HIGHS DOWN A FEW DEGREES. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL SLOWLY INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD ALSO CAUSE
CLOUDS TO THIN BY 21Z.
FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP AND A MILD NIGHT IS
EXPECTED WITH MINIMAL TEMP FALL FOR MOST AREAS WITH WINDS
REMAINING AROUND 10KT...PERHAPS A BIT HIGHER.
ON SUNDAY...A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
REGION. THERE IS NO DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE TO SPEAK OF...SO
EXPECTING A DRY SYSTEM. THERE WILL BE COOLING IN THE MID
LEVELS...BUT WITH FAVORABLE WESTERLY WIND FLOW SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...TEMPS SHOULD STILL RISE ABOVE NORMAL.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014
ON MONDAY...THE GFS IS COOLER THAN THE NAM AND WOULD YIELD HIGHS
IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60...WITH THE NAM A BIT WARMER. TEMPS SHOULD
BE COOLER THAN SUNDAY THOUGH WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND LIMITED MIXING
OVER THE AREA.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING IN A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MID WEEK...ALTHOUGH THERE CONTINUE TO BE DIFFERENCES IN
THE TIMING. THE ECMWF IS FASTER AND PRODUCES MORE PRECIP THAN THE
GFS AND GEM ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE OTHER OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE
SLOWER AND DRIER. SEVERAL OF THE NAEFS MEMBERS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH
THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF...SO THERE IS ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY TO INCLUDE
SOME POPS FOR WEDNESDAY DURING THE DAY. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE
PRECIP THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND IN THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES
THURSDAY BEFORE DRYING OUT ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER
THAN AVERAGE WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 60S UNDER RIDGING TO SOUTHWEST
AND WEST FLOW ALOFT. THERE ARE SOME SIGNS OF A SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA WHICH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH
SOMETIME LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN
FAIRLY MILD AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014
CHALLENGING CLOUD COVER SCENARIO WITH ALL AIRFIELDS DRAPED UNDER
MVFR CIGS SAVE KDVL WHICH IS IFR. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW LIKELY
TO KEEP THESE CIGS INTACT THROUGH SUNDOWN. SIGNS OF EROSION EAST
OF FORECAST REGION SHOWING UP PRESENTLY...BUT BETTING THIS WON`T
GET TO KBJI FOR SEVERAL HOURS. OTHERWISE LIGHT SOUTHERLY SURFACE
WIND FIELD WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...WITH APPROACHING
TROUGH POSSIBLY SWINGING WINDS TOWARD WEST AT END OF TAF PERIOD.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GUST
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK/JR
AVIATION...WJB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1234 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014
MAIN ISSUE CONTINUES TO BE THE STRATUS LAYER ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. VISIBLE LOOPS SHOW THE CLOUDS BEGINNING TO
ERODE QUICKLY MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY NORTH TO MINOT. THIS AREA WILL
CLEAR SHORTLY AFTER 1 PM. KEPT CLOUDS IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
THROUGH 22Z OR 5 PM. TRIMMED HIGHS EAST TO UPPER 40S.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 940 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014
PROBLEM OF THE DAY WILL BE LOW CLOUDS AND THE IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURES AND AVIATION. 11Z HRRR MODEL KEEPS LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
IN THE CENTRAL A BIT LONGER INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LIMIT
HIGHS A BIT JAMES RIVER VALLEY. WILL BE A BIT MORE PESSIMISTIC ON
CLEARING CLOUDS FOR AVIATION AS WELL.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014
WARM FRONT OVER EASTERN MONTANA WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA TODAY. CURRENTLY...MVFR-IFR CEILINGS ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR
WESTERN TIER COUNTIES. ALSO SOME PATCHY FOG...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
WESTERN FRINGE OF THE LOW STRATUS. TEMPERATURES WERE FAIRLY
UNIFORM IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S UNDER THE CLOUD COVER...EXCEPT FOR
SOME LOWER 30S FAR SOUTHWEST WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED. PATCHY FOG
IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE QUICKLY THIS MORNING WITH INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH THE ADVANCING WARM FRONT. STRATUS IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE EAST OF THE MINOT AND BISMARCK AREAS AROUND MIDDAY AND
HANG ON OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND TURTLE MOUNTAINS THROUGH
THE EARLY AFTERNOON. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER
KEEPING MVFR CEILINGS IN THE FAR EAST THROUGH AROUND 20-21 UTC.
OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014
MAIN CONCERNS TODAY WILL BE THE TIMING OF ERODING LOW CLOUDS
ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND THE PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT/COLD
FRONT IN THE NEXT 24HR. THE LATEST FOG/STRATUS LOOP IN CONJUNCTION
WITH HRRR CEILING FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT EARLY
THIS MORNING AND HAVE UTILIZED THIS FOR THE SKY GRIDS. ESSENTIALLY
EXPECT THE BACK EDGE OF THE LOW CLOUDS...WHICH CURRENTLY STRETCH
ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM CROSBY TO WILLISTON/WATFORD
CITY/DICKINSON/ELGIN...TO BEGIN ERODING FROM WEST TO EAST AT
15Z...THEN WORKING INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BETWEEN 18Z-20Z.
INCREASING 3HR PRESSURE FALLS DUE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION/RISING
MOTION NOW ENTERING THE WEST WILL HELP FACILITATE THE EROSION OF
THE LOW CLOUDS DURING THE MORNING AND SHIFT THE CLEARING LINE EAST
BY EARLY AFTERNOON. ONCE THIS OCCURS EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
WITH SCT MID/HIGH CLOUDS LATER TODAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONTAL
PASSAGE ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED
BY A COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT. COOLING WILL BE MINIMAL BEHIND
THIS FRONT. H85 TEMPS RISE TO +9/10C SATURDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER
MIXING HEIGHTS WILL REACH ONLY TO AROUND 890MB..SO WILL NOT SEE
THE FULL MIXING/WARMTH POTENTIAL AS THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ABOVE
THIS LEVEL REMAINS STRONG. BOTH FRONTAL PASSAGES WILL BE DRY.
EXPECT HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL TO
LOWER 60S WEST. LOWS OF AROUND 40F CAN BE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014
THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE A CONTINUED WARM
AND DRY PERIOD AS A LONG WAVE RIDGE TRAVERSES EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE STATE FROM NW TO SE ON
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...BUT OTHER THAN CLOUDS...DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS BEST MOISTURE REMAINS EAST AND NORTH OF ND.
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MID-WEEK DEPICTING LONG WAVE
RIDGE SLOWLY PUSHING EAST ACROSS NORTH AMERICA...RESULTING IN MUCH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER.
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK SEES THE RIDGE AXIS PASS TO OUR
EAST...THOUGH DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT ANOMALOUSLY HIGH HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT HIGH
TEMPS WELL INTO THE 60S THROUGH THE WEEK.
GFS/ECMWF SHOW SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING BEHIND THE UPPER RIDGE. MAIN ENERGY SPLITS TO THE
NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA RESULTING IN SOME VERY LOW POPS
OVER THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. OTHERWISE
DRY WEATHER DOMINATES THE FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014
A DRY WARM FRONT ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA WILL MOVE EAST TODAY.
STRATUS CLOUDS WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL CLEAR EAST OF A
MINOT TO BISMARCK LINE AROUND 18Z. CONDITIONS IMPROVING FROM IFR
TO VFR AT KJMS AROUND 21Z. REMAINDER OF FORECAST PERIOD VFR.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...WAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1017 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1015 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014
NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES NEEDED YET THIS FORENOON. LOW LEVEL CLOUD
DECK STILL FIRMLY IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA
WILL VERY SLOWLY ERODE AND SHIFT NOERTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE LATER
AFTERNOON. DAYTIME TEMPS WILL SEE ONLY MODEST GAINS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 610 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014
THE LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO INDICATE CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OVER MOST
OF THE FA THROUGH MOST OF THIS AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD BE SOME
THINNING OF CLOUDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE EDGES OF THE
FA...BUT THE VALLEY SHOULD REMAIN CLOUDY THROUGH MOST OF TODAY.
HAVE ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS TO INDICATE MORE CLOUDS TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014
THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE CLOUD TRENDS TODAY AND TEMPS OVERALL.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT...WITH THEN NAM HAVING A
BETTER HANDLE ON THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS OVER THE REGION NOW.
FOR TODAY...A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL BE OVER THE AREA
TODAY...AND THIS SHOULD TRAP CLOUDS AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST.
EXPECTING A CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY MORNING FOR ALL AREAS. THERE
SHOULD BE SOME THINNING OF CLOUDS ON THE WEST AND EASTERN EDGES OF
THE FA AFTER 18Z...BUT CLOUDS COULD REMAIN MOST OF THE AFTERNOON
IN THE VALLEY. HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST IN THE DIRECTION OF MORE
CLOUDS...AND TWEAKED HIGHS DOWN A FEW DEGREES. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL SLOWLY INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD ALSO CAUSE
CLOUDS TO THIN BY 21Z.
FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP AND A MILD NIGHT IS
EXPECTED WITH MINIMAL TEMP FALL FOR MOST AREAS WITH WINDS
REMAINING AROUND 10KT...PERHAPS A BIT HIGHER.
ON SUNDAY...A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
REGION. THERE IS NO DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE TO SPEAK OF...SO
EXPECTING A DRY SYSTEM. THERE WILL BE COOLING IN THE MID
LEVELS...BUT WITH FAVORABLE WESTERLY WIND FLOW SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...TEMPS SHOULD STILL RISE ABOVE NORMAL.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014
ON MONDAY...THE GFS IS COOLER THAN THE NAM AND WOULD YIELD HIGHS
IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60...WITH THE NAM A BIT WARMER. TEMPS SHOULD
BE COOLER THAN SUNDAY THOUGH WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND LIMITED MIXING
OVER THE AREA.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING IN A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MID WEEK...ALTHOUGH THERE CONTINUE TO BE DIFFERENCES IN
THE TIMING. THE ECMWF IS FASTER AND PRODUCES MORE PRECIP THAN THE
GFS AND GEM ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE OTHER OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE
SLOWER AND DRIER. SEVERAL OF THE NAEFS MEMBERS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH
THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF...SO THERE IS ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY TO INCLUDE
SOME POPS FOR WEDNESDAY DURING THE DAY. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE
PRECIP THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND IN THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES
THURSDAY BEFORE DRYING OUT ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER
THAN AVERAGE WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 60S UNDER RIDGING TO SOUTHWEST
AND WEST FLOW ALOFT. THERE ARE SOME SIGNS OF A SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA WHICH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH
SOMETIME LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN
FAIRLY MILD AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 610 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014
A BAND OF MVFR CIGS REMAINS OVER THE ENTIRE REGION. EXPECT CLOUDS
TO SLOWLY ERODE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR PERHAPS EVEN AROUND 00Z.
THERE SHOULD BE CLEARING IN THE WEST FIRST...WITH CLOUDS LINGERING
IN THE VALLEY AREAS UNTIL AROUND OR AFTER 00Z. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST AND REMAIN AND COULD
GUST TO AROUND 20KT NEAR KDVL THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GUST
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK/JR
AVIATION...DK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
628 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014
WARM FRONT OVER EASTERN MONTANA WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA TODAY. CURRENTLY...MVFR-IFR CEILINGS ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR
WESTERN TIER COUNTIES. ALSO SOME PATCHY FOG...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
WESTERN FRINGE OF THE LOW STRATUS. TEMPERATURES WERE FAIRLY
UNIFORM IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S UNDER THE CLOUD COVER...EXCEPT FOR
SOME LOWER 30S FAR SOUTHWEST WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED. PATCHY FOG
IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE QUICKLY THIS MORNING WITH INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH THE ADVANCING WARM FRONT. STRATUS IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE EAST OF THE MINOT AND BISMARCK AREAS AROUND MIDDAY AND
HANG ON OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND TURTLE MOUNTAINS THROUGH
THE EARLY AFTERNOON. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER
KEEPING MVFR CEILINGS IN THE FAR EAST THROUGH AROUND 20-21 UTC.
OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014
MAIN CONCERNS TODAY WILL BE THE TIMING OF ERODING LOW CLOUDS
ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND THE PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT/COLD
FRONT IN THE NEXT 24HR. THE LATEST FOG/STRATUS LOOP IN CONJUNCTION
WITH HRRR CEILING FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT EARLY
THIS MORNING AND HAVE UTILIZED THIS FOR THE SKY GRIDS. ESSENTIALLY
EXPECT THE BACK EDGE OF THE LOW CLOUDS...WHICH CURRENTLY STRETCH
ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM CROSBY TO WILLISTON/WATFORD
CITY/DICKINSON/ELGIN...TO BEGIN ERODING FROM WEST TO EAST AT
15Z...THEN WORKING INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BETWEEN 18Z-20Z.
INCREASING 3HR PRESSURE FALLS DUE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION/RISING
MOTION NOW ENTERING THE WEST WILL HELP FACILITATE THE EROSION OF
THE LOW CLOUDS DURING THE MORNING AND SHIFT THE CLEARING LINE EAST
BY EARLY AFTERNOON. ONCE THIS OCCURS EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
WITH SCT MID/HIGH CLOUDS LATER TODAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONTAL
PASSAGE ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED
BY A COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT. COOLING WILL BE MINIMAL BEHIND
THIS FRONT. H85 TEMPS RISE TO +9/10C SATURDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER
MIXING HEIGHTS WILL REACH ONLY TO AROUND 890MB..SO WILL NOT SEE
THE FULL MIXING/WARMTH POTENTIAL AS THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ABOVE
THIS LEVEL REMAINS STRONG. BOTH FRONTAL PASSAGES WILL BE DRY.
EXPECT HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL TO
LOWER 60S WEST. LOWS OF AROUND 40F CAN BE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014
THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE A CONTINUED WARM
AND DRY PERIOD AS A LONG WAVE RIDGE TRAVERSES EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE STATE FROM NW TO SE ON
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...BUT OTHER THAN CLOUDS...DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS BEST MOISTURE REMAINS EAST AND NORTH OF ND.
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MID-WEEK DEPICTING LONG WAVE
RIDGE SLOWLY PUSHING EAST ACROSS NORTH AMERICA...RESULTING IN MUCH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER.
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK SEES THE RIDGE AXIS PASS TO OUR
EAST...THOUGH DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT ANOMALOUSLY HIGH HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT HIGH
TEMPS WELL INTO THE 60S THROUGH THE WEEK.
GFS/ECMWF SHOW SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING BEHIND THE UPPER RIDGE. MAIN ENERGY SPLITS TO THE
NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA RESULTING IN SOME VERY LOW POPS
OVER THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. OTHERWISE
DRY WEATHER DOMINATES THE FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW
MVFR TO IFR CIGS FROM KMOT TO KBIS AND EAST INTO KJMS. KISN REMAINS
JUST FAR ENOUGH WEST TO AVOID ANY LOW CIGS WHILE KDIK REMAINS ON THE
FRINGE OF VFR/IFR CIGS UNTIL 15Z...THEN VFR. EXPECT AN IMPROVEMENT
TO VFR CIGS AT KMOT/KBIS BETWEEN 18Z-19Z...AND BY AROUND 20Z AT
KJMS. THEREAFTER...VFR CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL AERODROMES
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
611 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 610 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014
THE LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO INDICATE CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OVER MOST
OF THE FA THROUGH MOST OF THIS AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD BE SOME
THINNING OF CLOUDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE EDGES OF THE
FA...BUT THE VALLEY SHOULD REMAIN CLOUDY THROUGH MOST OF TODAY.
HAVE ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS TO INDICATE MORE CLOUDS TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014
THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE CLOUD TRENDS TODAY AND TEMPS OVERALL.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT...WITH THEN NAM HAVING A
BETTER HANDLE ON THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS OVER THE REGION NOW.
FOR TODAY...A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL BE OVER THE AREA
TODAY...AND THIS SHOULD TRAP CLOUDS AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST.
EXPECTING A CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY MORNING FOR ALL AREAS. THERE
SHOULD BE SOME THINNING OF CLOUDS ON THE WEST AND EASTERN EDGES OF
THE FA AFTER 18Z...BUT CLOUDS COULD REMAIN MOST OF THE AFTERNOON
IN THE VALLEY. HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST IN THE DIRECTION OF MORE
CLOUDS...AND TWEAKED HIGHS DOWN A FEW DEGREES. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL SLOWLY INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD ALSO CAUSE
CLOUDS TO THIN BY 21Z.
FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP AND A MILD NIGHT IS
EXPECTED WITH MINIMAL TEMP FALL FOR MOST AREAS WITH WINDS
REMAINING AROUND 10KT...PERHAPS A BIT HIGHER.
ON SUNDAY...A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
REGION. THERE IS NO DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE TO SPEAK OF...SO
EXPECTING A DRY SYSTEM. THERE WILL BE COOLING IN THE MID
LEVELS...BUT WITH FAVORABLE WESTERLY WIND FLOW SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...TEMPS SHOULD STILL RISE ABOVE NORMAL.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014
ON MONDAY...THE GFS IS COOLER THAN THE NAM AND WOULD YIELD HIGHS
IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60...WITH THE NAM A BIT WARMER. TEMPS SHOULD
BE COOLER THAN SUNDAY THOUGH WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND LIMITED MIXING
OVER THE AREA.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING IN A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MID WEEK...ALTHOUGH THERE CONTINUE TO BE DIFFERENCES IN
THE TIMING. THE ECMWF IS FASTER AND PRODUCES MORE PRECIP THAN THE
GFS AND GEM ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE OTHER OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE
SLOWER AND DRIER. SEVERAL OF THE NAEFS MEMBERS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH
THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF...SO THERE IS ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY TO INCLUDE
SOME POPS FOR WEDNESDAY DURING THE DAY. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE
PRECIP THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND IN THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES
THURSDAY BEFORE DRYING OUT ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER
THAN AVERAGE WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 60S UNDER RIDGING TO SOUTHWEST
AND WEST FLOW ALOFT. THERE ARE SOME SIGNS OF A SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA WHICH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH
SOMETIME LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN
FAIRLY MILD AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 610 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014
A BAND OF MVFR CIGS REMAINS OVER THE ENTIRE REGION. EXPECT CLOUDS
TO SLOWLY ERODE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR PERHAPS EVEN AROUND 00Z.
THERE SHOULD BE CLEARING IN THE WEST FIRST...WITH CLOUDS LINGERING
IN THE VALLEY AREAS UNTIL AROUND OR AFTER 00Z. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST AND REMAIN AND COULD
GUST TO AROUND 20KT NEAR KDVL THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK/JR
AVIATION...DK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
304 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014
THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE CLOUD TRENDS TODAY AND TEMPS OVERALL.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT...WITH THEN NAM HAVING A
BETTER HANDLE ON THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS OVER THE REGION NOW.
FOR TODAY...A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL BE OVER THE AREA
TODAY...AND THIS SHOULD TRAP CLOUDS AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST.
EXPECTING A CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY MORNING FOR ALL AREAS. THERE
SHOULD BE SOME THINNING OF CLOUDS ON THE WEST AND EASTERN EDGES OF
THE FA AFTER 18Z...BUT CLOUDS COULD REMAIN MOST OF THE AFTERNOON
IN THE VALLEY. HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST IN THE DIRECTION OF MORE
CLOUDS...AND TWEAKED HIGHS DOWN A FEW DEGREES. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL SLOWLY INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD ALSO CAUSE
CLOUDS TO THIN BY 21Z.
FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP AND A MILD NIGHT IS
EXPECTED WITH MINIMAL TEMP FALL FOR MOST AREAS WITH WINDS
REMAINING AROUND 10KT...PERHAPS A BIT HIGHER.
ON SUNDAY...A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
REGION. THERE IS NO DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE TO SPEAK OF...SO
EXPECTING A DRY SYSTEM. THERE WILL BE COOLING IN THE MID
LEVELS...BUT WITH FAVORABLE WESTERLY WIND FLOW SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...TEMPS SHOULD STILL RISE ABOVE NORMAL.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014
ON MONDAY...THE GFS IS COOLER THAN THE NAM AND WOULD YIELD HIGHS
IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60...WITH THE NAM A BIT WARMER. TEMPS SHOULD
BE COOLER THAN SUNDAY THOUGH WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND LIMITED MIXING
OVER THE AREA.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING IN A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MID WEEK...ALTHOUGH THERE CONTINUE TO BE DIFFERENCES IN
THE TIMING. THE ECMWF IS FASTER AND PRODUCES MORE PRECIP THAN THE
GFS AND GEM ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE OTHER OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE
SLOWER AND DRIER. SEVERAL OF THE NAEFS MEMBERS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH
THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF...SO THERE IS ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY TO INCLUDE
SOME POPS FOR WEDNESDAY DURING THE DAY. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE
PRECIP THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND IN THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES
THURSDAY BEFORE DRYING OUT ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER
THAN AVERAGE WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 60S UNDER RIDGING TO SOUTHWEST
AND WEST FLOW ALOFT. THERE ARE SOME SIGNS OF A SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA WHICH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH
SOMETIME LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN
FAIRLY MILD AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014
EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
TOMORROW. HAVE FOLLOWED THE NAM BUFR/MOS FOR MOST OF THE
FORECAST. CEILINGS HAVE BOUNCED AROUND 1100-1900 FT IN MOST
AREAS...WITH SOME TERMINALS SEEING CIGS BETWEEN 2000 AND 3500 FEET.
IF ANY OF THE SITES GO BELOW 1000 FT IT WOULD BE KDVL AS THE
LANGDON AWOS HAS DIPPED TO BKN AT 800 FT RECENTLY. CIGS AT MOST
TERMINALS SHOULD ERODE BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS INDICATED BY THE NAM.
THE RAP DOES LINGER CLOUDS A BIT LATER HOWEVER.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK/JR
AVIATION...KNUTSVIG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
254 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014
MAIN CONCERNS TODAY WILL BE THE TIMING OF ERODING LOW CLOUDS
ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND THE PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT/COLD
FRONT IN THE NEXT 24HR. THE LATEST FOG/STRATUS LOOP IN CONJUNCTION
WITH HRRR CEILING FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT EARLY
THIS MORNING AND HAVE UTILIZED THIS FOR THE SKY GRIDS. ESSENTIALLY
EXPECT THE BACK EDGE OF THE LOW CLOUDS...WHICH CURRENTLY STRETCH
ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM CROSBY TO WILLISTON/WATFORD
CITY/DICKINSON/ELGIN...TO BEGIN ERODING FROM WEST TO EAST AT
15Z...THEN WORKING INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BETWEEN 18Z-20Z.
INCREASING 3HR PRESSURE FALLS DUE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION/RISING
MOTION NOW ENTERING THE WEST WILL HELP FACILITATE THE EROSION OF
THE LOW CLOUDS DURING THE MORNING AND SHIFT THE CLEARING LINE EAST
BY EARLY AFTERNOON. ONCE THIS OCCURS EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
WITH SCT MID/HIGH CLOUDS LATER TODAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONTAL
PASSAGE ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED
BY A COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT. COOLING WILL BE MINIMAL BEHIND
THIS FRONT. H85 TEMPS RISE TO +9/10C SATURDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER
MIXING HEIGHTS WILL REACH ONLY TO AROUND 890MB..SO WILL NOT SEE
THE FULL MIXING/WARMTH POTENTIAL AS THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ABOVE
THIS LEVEL REMAINS STRONG. BOTH FRONTAL PASSAGES WILL BE DRY.
EXPECT HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL TO
LOWER 60S WEST. LOWS OF AROUND 40F CAN BE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014
THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE A CONTINUED WARM
AND DRY PERIOD AS A LONG WAVE RIDGE TRAVERSES EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE STATE FROM NW TO SE ON
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...BUT OTHER THAN CLOUDS...DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS BEST MOISTURE REMAINS EAST AND NORTH OF ND.
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MID-WEEK DEPICTING LONG WAVE
RIDGE SLOWLY PUSHING EAST ACROSS NORTH AMERICA...RESULTING IN MUCH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER.
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK SEES THE RIDGE AXIS PASS TO OUR
EAST...THOUGH DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT ANOMALOUSLY HIGH HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT HIGH
TEMPS WELL INTO THE 60S THROUGH THE WEEK.
GFS/ECMWF SHOW SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING BEHIND THE UPPER RIDGE. MAIN ENERGY SPLITS TO THE
NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA RESULTING IN SOME VERY LOW POPS
OVER THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. OTHERWISE
DRY WEATHER DOMINATES THE FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014
CIGS WILL CONTINUE IN THE MVFR TO IFR RANGE AT KMOT/KBIS/KJMS WITH
KISN AND KDIK REMAINING ON THE EDGE OF VFR/MVFR CIGS. A WARM
FRONT WILL MOVE FROM EASTERN MONTANA AND SLIDE ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY HELPING TO LIFT CIGS
BACK TO VFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 15Z-16Z AT KISN/KDIK...BETWEEN
17Z-18Z AT KMOT/KBIS...AND BETWEEN 18Z-20Z AT KJMS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1147 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014
LATEST FOG/STRATUS LOOP AND TIME/HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS SHOW LOW
CLOUDS EXPANDING A BIT FARTHER WEST WITH TIME...WITH THE BACK EDGE
NEAR/ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER. STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION FORECAST
TO LOWER OVERNIGHT PER NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND TIME/HEIGHT CROSS
SECTIONS. THUS CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER TO LESS THAN
1KFT...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. CURRENT
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW PATCHY FOG AT TIOGA AND STANLEY...BUT
EXPECT THIS TO BE SHORT LIVED AS PRESSURE FALLS/WARM AIR ADVECTION
OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA WILL SLIDE INTO NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT
IN ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE LATEST CIG FORECAST FROM
THE HRRR CONTINUES TO DOMINATE AS THE BEST MODEL AND HAVE UTILIZED
THIS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD THESE TRENDS
HANDLED WELL WITH JUST MINOR UPDATES NEEDED THIS EVENING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 920 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014
SHARP EDGE TO LOW CLOUD COVER HAS PUSHED JUST TO THE WEST OF A
LINE FROM MINOT TO BISMARCK AND CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WORK TOWARDS
THE WEST. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE A BIT LONGER BEFORE IT
STALLS OUT. TEMPERATURES MAINLY REMAIN IN THE 40S UNDER THE CLOUD
COVER...WHILE TO THE WEST UNDER CLEAR SKIES TEMPERATURES HAVE
DROPPED INTO THE UPPER 20S IN A FEW LOCATIONS. MID-EVENING UPDATE
WILL ADDRESS CLOUD COVER TREND AND WILL ALSO LOWER MIN TEMPS TO
THE WEST OF THE LOW CLOUD COVER.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 618 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014
ONLY CHANGE FOR EARLY EVENING UPDATE WAS TO MAKE SOME UPDATES TO CLOUD
COVER BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. BACK EDGE OF LOW CLOUDS STRETCHES FROM
NEAR MINOT TO BISMARCK. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGEST THIS BACKING TO
THE WEST LATER THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD
SHAPE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014
MAIN ISSUE IS CLOUD COVER. RECENT VIS IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW
CLOUDS ERODING ACROSS WESTERN ND WITH OVERCAST CONDITIONS
PREVAILING OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN REGIONS. WV IMAGERY SHOWS WEAK
SHORTWAVE IN NORTHWEST FLOW JUST PUSHING SOUTH OF ND WITH SOME
SUBSIDENCE/DRYING BEHIND IT. WILL CONTINUE THE TREND FROM EARLIER AND
MAINTAIN CLOUD COVER OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS...CLOSER TO
NAM/HRRR GUIDANCE WHICH HAD BEEN PERFORMING BETTER. NAM BUFR
SOUNDING FOR BISMARCK KEEPS SHALLOW SATURATED LAYER AROUND 900MB
THROUGH THE NIGHT. ANY REMAINING CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE SATURDAY
MORNING/AFTERNOON WITH RETURN FLOW BEHIND SURFACE RIDGE HELPING
WARM TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEGREES COMPARED TO TODAY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE STATE FROM NW TO SE ON
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...BUT OTHER THAN CLOUDS...DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS BEST MOISTURE REMAINS EAST AND NORTH OF ND. MODELS
REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MID-WEEK DEPICTING LONG WAVE
RIDGE SLOWLY PUSHING EAST ACROSS NORTH AMERICA...RESULTING IN MUCH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER. NAEFS SUPPORTS THIS
SCENARIO AS WELL SHOWING UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS IN 99TH PERCENTILE
ALONG RIDGE AXIS. THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK SEES THE RIDGE AXIS
PASS TO OUR EAST...THOUGH DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ANOMALOUSLY HIGH HEIGHTS ACROSS THE
REGION. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 60S THROUGH THE WEEK.
GFS/ECMWF SHOW SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY EVENING
BEHIND UPPER RIDGE...RESULTING IN SOME VERY LOW POPS. OTHERWISE
DRY WEATHER DOMINATES THE FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014
CIGS WILL CONTINUE IN THE MVFR TO IFR RANGE THROUGH MID MORNING
SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL THEN EMERGE ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA AND
SLIDE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY
RAISING CIGS TO VFR BETWEEN 15Z-16Z AT KISN/KDIK...AND BETWEEN
17Z-18Z FOR KMOT/KBIS/KJMS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...JNS
LONG TERM...JNS
AVIATION...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1133 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1003 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014
VERY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO SKY GRIDS WITH THIS UPDATE.
OVERALL...FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 648 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014
FRESHENED UP CLOUD COVER THROUGH TOMORROW BASED ON LATEST MODEL
DATA. NEW NAM MODEL BUFR SOUNDINGS AND MOS GUIDANCE HAVE CLOUDS
LINGERING THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING IN MOST AREAS. HAVE EXTENDED
OVERCAST SKIES A LITTLE TEMPORALLY...CLEARING THINGS OUT DURING
THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES THIS AFTERNOON INCLUDE SHORT TERM
CLOUD TRENDS AND TEMPS.
SFC RIDGING WILL DROP SOUTH FROM CANADA OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...WITH WINDS EVENTUALLY BECOMING LIGHT. LOW CLOUDS
CURRENTLY EXTEND WELL NORTHWARD INTO MANITOBA...WITH SOME EROSION
ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. THE NAM/RAP HAVE BEEN SHOWING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING
TRAPPED UNDER DRYING/SUBSIDING MID LEVELS TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...WHEREAS THE GFS HAS SHOWN DEEPER DIURNAL MIXING AND
QUICKER EROSION OF THE MOIST LAYER BY THIS EVENING. TENDED TO SIDE
WITH THE NAM/RAP...IN KEEPING MORE CLOUD COVER TONIGHT. DID BEGIN TO
DECREASE CLOUDS ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH NOT CONFIDENT ON TIMING. IT
IS POSSIBLE THAT CLOUDS COULD HANG ON INTO TOMORROW. HAVE GONE
WITH MIDDLE OF THE ROAD LOW TEMPS TONIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID
30S...BUT SOME AREAS COULD REMAIN WARMER/COLDER DEPENDING ON IF
AND WHERE ANY CLEARING OCCURS. RETURN FLOW WILL COMMENCE ON
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY RRV WESTWARD...WITH WARMING 850 MB TEMPS.
STILL EXPECT TEMPS GENERALLY NEAR OR BELOW AVERAGE...DEPENDENT TO
SOME EXTENT ON CLOUD COVER.
THE NEXT UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DROP
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES SATURDAY NIGHT. SOUTHERLY
WINDS/LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION COMBINED WITH INCREASING MID/HIGH
CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO MUCH.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014
AS THE UPPER WAVE DROPS THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY...AM NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP...WITH LOW LEVELS REMAINING
FAIRLY DRY AND THE SFC LOW PASSING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. THERE
COULD BE A SHOWER OR TWO UP TOWARDS LAKE OF THE WOODS...THOUGH.
ALTHOUGH THE THERMAL RIDGE AXIS PUSHES THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AS THE
UPPER WAVE TRANSLATES SOUTHEASTWARD...NO STRONG COLD ADVECTION IS
EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE DURING THE DAY. WITH A WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE
WIND AND MILD MORNING TEMPS...TEMPS SHOULD RESPOND NICELY INTO
THE 50S AND 60S...POSSIBLY NEAR 70 IN SE ND.
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM INTO MONDAY...MID/UPPER RIDGING WILL START TO
BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH QUIET WEATHER
CONTINUING. WINDS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE MONDAY UNDER WEAK
SFC HIGH PRESSURE...WITH TEMPS PERHAPS JUST A BIT COOLER THAN SUNDAY.
MONDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF AK SHIFTS
SLIGHTLY EAST TO THE BC COAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. LONG WAVE
RIDGE OVER CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA ALSO SHIFTS EAST AND FLATTENS BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD AS SHORT WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW. ECMWF
IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THE A THE GFS AND REMAINS SO THROUGH THE
PERIOD. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE TRENDING FASTER OVER THE LAST
COUPLE MODEL RUNS. WILL PREFER THE ECMWF.
SHORT WAVE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/SOUTHERN
CANADA ON WED NIGHT. WITH FASTER TIMING, PRECIP WAS SHIFTED EAST ON
WED NIGHT AND THU.
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER HE AREA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY INCREASED ONE TO THREE DEGREES
ON THU AND FRI AND DECREASED A DEGREE OR TWO FOR TUE AND WED FROM
YESTERDAYS RUN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014
EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
TOMORROW. HAVE FOLLOWED THE NAM BUFR/MOS FOR MOST OF THE
FORECAST. CEILINGS HAVE BOUNCED AROUND 1100-1900 FT IN MOST
AREAS...WITH SOME TERMINALS SEEING CIGS BETWEEN 2000 AND 3500 FEET.
IF ANY OF THE SITES GO BELOW 1000 FT IT WOULD BE KDVL AS THE
LANGDON AWOS HAS DIPPED TO BKN AT 800 FT RECENTLY. CIGS AT MOST
TERMINALS SHOULD ERODE BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS INDICATED BY THE NAM.
THE RAP DOES LINGER CLOUDS A BIT LATER HOWEVER.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KNUTSVIG
SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...HOPPES/JAM
AVIATION...KNUTSVIG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
145 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DIG ACROSS OHIO AND
KENTUCKY TODAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SKIES WILL CLEAR
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA....BRINGING A CHANCE
OF FROST. A DRY SUNDAY IS EXPECTED WITH COOL TEMPERATURES
LINGERING. LOOKING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL...WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN MOVING BACK INTO THE AREA ON
MONDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES FROM CANADA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT HAS
PASSED SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER...AND IS MOVING OUT OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SEVERAL AREAS OF VERY LIGHT RADAR
ECHOES ACROSS THE CWA...BUT RAIN OBSERVATIONS AT AWOS/ASOS SITES
HAVE BEEN VERY ISOLATED.
AS AN UPPER TROUGH ROTATES SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION
TODAY...CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE...MAINLY AFTER
18Z. SLIGHT TIMING AND PLACEMENT ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO POPS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT STILL KEPT NO HIGHER THAN 30 PERCENT.
THIS MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED IF TRENDS SEEN ON RECENT RAP/HRRR
RUNS AND THE 12Z NAM APPEAR LIKELY TO VERIFY. THESE MODELS DEVELOP
A MORE CONSOLIDATED AREA OF PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN...MOVING SSE INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE ILN FORECAST
AREA. THE ROTATION OF THE VORTICITY MAXIMUM DRIVING THIS FORECAST
IS NOW STARTING TO COME INTO VIEW ON VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY...AND WILL BE A FEATURE TO WATCH THROUGH THE DAY.
A BAND OF BROKEN CLEARING HAS DEVELOPED FROM NORTHEAST INDIANA
THROUGH NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER MICHIGAN SUGGESTS THAT THIS WILL GRADUALLY
FILL IN AS MORE CLOUDS ADVECT FROM THE NORTH. HOWEVER...THERE ARE
INDICATIONS ON THE RAP THAT MOISTURE DOWNSTREAM FROM LOWER
MICHIGAN MAY BE SLIGHTLY LESS ENHANCED THAN MOISTURE IN AREAS WITH
A FETCH MORE DIRECTLY OFF OF THE GREAT LAKES.
THE PREVIOUS TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS STILL IN LINE WITH THE LATEST
MODEL TRENDS AND CURRENT CONDITIONS...SO NO CHANGES WERE MADE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION >
A FEW LIGHT ECHOS ARE DROPPING THE ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES EARLY
THIS MORNING. THESE ARE PROBABLY NO MORE THAN SPRINKLES ATTM. A
SHARP S/W TROF WILL SWING DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE FA
TODAY. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL INCREASE AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES...THUS SO WILL PCPN CHANCES. OVERALL THE BETTER CHANCE
OF PCPN WILL BE ACROSS THE NRN COUNTIES...BUT CANT RULE OUT A
SHOWER ANYWHERE.
EXPANSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOL TODAY...LIMITING
HIGHS TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE NORTH AND THE MID 50S ACROSS THE SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
BY 00Z THIS EVENING THE S/W TROF HAS SWUNG E OF THE FA...TO NEAR
THE OH/WV BORDER. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE TROF SHOULD ALLOW FOR
QUICK CLEARING OF LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT. SOME LAKE EFFECT SC OFF OF
LAKES MICHIGAN AND ERIE IS POSSIBLE...BUT EXPECT IT TO STAY NORTH
OF THE AREA. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SFC...WINDS WILL
LIGHTEN. COLDEST AIR ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION EARLY
TONIGHT...BUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD BE ABLE TO DECOUPLE
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NW 2/3RD OF THE FA TO DROP INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 30S. FROST SHOULD DEVELOP IN THIS REGIME...SO WILL
ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY NORTH OF A LINE FROM ABOUT CVG-ILN-LHQ.
EXPECT A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY WITH SFC HIGH OVER THE
REGION. NW FLOW ALOFT SHOULD BRING SOME CI. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLOW TO WARM DESPITE THE SUNSHINE...LEAVING HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 50S.
RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH WILL INCREASE MOISTURE
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. S/W ENERGY IN THE FAST FLOW ALOFT
WILL HELP PCPN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE N/W HALF OF THE FA SUNDAY NIGHT.
A CDFNT WILL ADVANCE ON THE REGION MONDAY HELPING TO FOCUS THE
LIFT. KEPT A HIGH CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN GFS/ECMWF IN THE OVERALL UPR PATTERN
AND THE ASSOC SFC FEATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED...ALTHOUGH SOME
CHANGES IN BOTH MODELS FROM YESTERDAY INCLUDE A DEEPER UPR LEVEL LOW
AND THEREFOR SLOWER TO DEPART THE REGION PRIOR TO THE DEEP RIDGING
DOMINATING THE CENTRAL/WESTERN CONUS IN THE LATTER PART OF THE
EXTENDED. HAVE LINGERED SHOWERS NOW THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY IN THE
EAST AS THE UPR LOW CONTINUES TO BECOME DEEPER WITH EACH MODEL RUN
AND WILL RESULT IN PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER IN THE EAST WELL INTO
WEDNESDAY. HAVE ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT LOWS UPWARD IN THE TUE NIGHT/WED
NIGHT TIMEFRAME ACCORDINGLY WITH THE DELAY IN POST FRONTAL CLEARING.
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR UPDATES IN TEMPS/PRECIP/CLOUDS IN THE EAST
IF THE LOW CONTINUES TO SLOW/DEEPEN.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CEILINGS OVER THE REGION HAVE BEEN OSCILLATING BETWEEN 2000-4000
FEET...BUT UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT A SWITCH TO
PREVAILING MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD BE LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. AS THIS IS HAPPENING...AN AREA OF RAIN OVER NORTHERN
INDIANA WILL BE MOVING SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE TAF SITES. AS THIS
RAIN NOW APPEARS LIKELY TO AFFECT THE AIRPORTS...PREVAILING
SHOWERS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED IN THE TAFS. VISIBILITIES IN THE RAIN
HAVE GENERALLY BEEN VFR...BUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VISIBILITIES
WILL BE POSSIBLE. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY GUSTY...BUT
SHOULD DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THEY TURN TO THE WEST.
AFTER THE RAIN MOVES OUT...CEILINGS MAY CONTINUE TO DROP AS NIGHT
FALLS...THOUGH GENERALLY NO LOWER THAN 1500 FEET. ONE CHALLENGE
FOR THE FORECAST IS DETERMINING WHEN THE CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE.
THE NEW TAFS ARE SLIGHTLY MORE PESSIMISTIC...KEEPING CEILINGS IN
PLACE THROUGH MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE IS SOMEWHAT OF A
CHANCE THAT MVFR CEILINGS COULD LAST INTO THE MORNING.
HOWEVER...ONCE CLEARING OCCURS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO
SUNDAY.
.OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR OHZ026-034-
035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>072-077-080.
KY...NONE.
IN...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR INZ050-058-
059-066-073-074.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BINAU/SITES
NEAR TERM...HATZOS/SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...JDR
AVIATION...HATZOS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
1003 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DIG ACROSS OHIO AND
KENTUCKY TODAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SKIES WILL CLEAR
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA....BRINGING A CHANCE
OF FROST. A DRY SUNDAY IS EXPECTED WITH COOL TEMPERATURES
LINGERING. LOOKING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL...WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN MOVING BACK INTO THE AREA ON
MONDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES FROM CANADA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT HAS
PASSED SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER...AND IS MOVING OUT OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SEVERAL AREAS OF VERY LIGHT RADAR
ECHOES ACROSS THE CWA...BUT RAIN OBSERVATIONS AT AWOS/ASOS SITES
HAVE BEEN VERY ISOLATED.
AS AN UPPER TROUGH ROTATES SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION
TODAY...CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE...MAINLY AFTER
18Z. SLIGHT TIMING AND PLACEMENT ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO POPS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT STILL KEPT NO HIGHER THAN 30 PERCENT.
THIS MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED IF TRENDS SEEN ON RECENT RAP/HRRR
RUNS AND THE 12Z NAM APPEAR LIKELY TO VERIFY. THESE MODELS DEVELOP
A MORE CONSOLIDATED AREA OF PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN...MOVING SSE INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE ILN FORECAST
AREA. THE ROTATION OF THE VORTICITY MAXIMUM DRIVING THIS FORECAST
IS NOW STARTING TO COME INTO VIEW ON VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY...AND WILL BE A FEATURE TO WATCH THROUGH THE DAY.
A BAND OF BROKEN CLEARING HAS DEVELOPED FROM NORTHEAST INDIANA
THROUGH NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER MICHIGAN SUGGESTS THAT THIS WILL GRADUALLY
FILL IN AS MORE CLOUDS ADVECT FROM THE NORTH. HOWEVER...THERE ARE
INDICATIONS ON THE RAP THAT MOISTURE DOWNSTREAM FROM LOWER
MICHIGAN MAY BE SLIGHTLY LESS ENHANCED THAN MOISTURE IN AREAS WITH
A FETCH MORE DIRECTLY OFF OF THE GREAT LAKES.
THE PREVIOUS TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS STILL IN LINE WITH THE LATEST
MODEL TRENDS AND CURRENT CONDITIONS...SO NO CHANGES WERE MADE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION >
A FEW LIGHT ECHOS ARE DROPPING THE ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES EARLY
THIS MORNING. THESE ARE PROBABLY NO MORE THAN SPRINKLES ATTM. A
SHARP S/W TROF WILL SWING DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE FA
TODAY. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL INCREASE AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES...THUS SO WILL PCPN CHANCES. OVERALL THE BETTER CHANCE
OF PCPN WILL BE ACROSS THE NRN COUNTIES...BUT CANT RULE OUT A
SHOWER ANYWHERE.
EXPANSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOL TODAY...LIMITING
HIGHS TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE NORTH AND THE MID 50S ACROSS THE SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
BY 00Z THIS EVENING THE S/W TROF HAS SWUNG E OF THE FA...TO NEAR
THE OH/WV BORDER. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE TROF SHOULD ALLOW FOR
QUICK CLEARING OF LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT. SOME LAKE EFFECT SC OFF OF
LAKES MICHIGAN AND ERIE IS POSSIBLE...BUT EXPECT IT TO STAY NORTH
OF THE AREA. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SFC...WINDS WILL
LIGHTEN. COLDEST AIR ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION EARLY
TONIGHT...BUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD BE ABLE TO DECOUPLE
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NW 2/3RD OF THE FA TO DROP INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 30S. FROST SHOULD DEVELOP IN THIS REGIME...SO WILL
ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY NORTH OF A LINE FROM ABOUT CVG-ILN-LHQ.
EXPECT A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY WITH SFC HIGH OVER THE
REGION. NW FLOW ALOFT SHOULD BRING SOME CI. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLOW TO WARM DESPITE THE SUNSHINE...LEAVING HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 50S.
RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH WILL INCREASE MOISTURE
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. S/W ENERGY IN THE FAST FLOW ALOFT
WILL HELP PCPN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE N/W HALF OF THE FA SUNDAY NIGHT.
A CDFNT WILL ADVANCE ON THE REGION MONDAY HELPING TO FOCUS THE
LIFT. KEPT A HIGH CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN GFS/ECMWF IN THE OVERALL UPR PATTERN
AND THE ASSOC SFC FEATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED...ALTHOUGH SOME
CHANGES IN BOTH MODELS FROM YESTERDAY INCLUDE A DEEPER UPR LEVEL LOW
AND THEREFOR SLOWER TO DEPART THE REGION PRIOR TO THE DEEP RIDGING
DOMINATING THE CENTRAL/WESTERN CONUS IN THE LATTER PART OF THE
EXTENDED. HAVE LINGERED SHOWERS NOW THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY IN THE
EAST AS THE UPR LOW CONTINUES TO BECOME DEEPER WITH EACH MODEL RUN
AND WILL RESULT IN PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER IN THE EAST WELL INTO
WEDNESDAY. HAVE ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT LOWS UPWARD IN THE TUE NIGHT/WED
NIGHT TIMEFRAME ACCORDINGLY WITH THE DELAY IN POST FRONTAL CLEARING.
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR UPDATES IN TEMPS/PRECIP/CLOUDS IN THE EAST
IF THE LOW CONTINUES TO SLOW/DEEPEN.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MVFR STRATOCU DECK WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING...SCATTERING
OUT IN THE 3-6Z TIME FRAME TONIGHT. CIGS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE
2-3KFT BUT WILL DROP BELOW THIS FOR A PERIOD OF TIME THIS
AFTERNOON IN SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT WILL OCCUR WITH THE
PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH...ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR WILL DROP CIGS BELOW 2KFT FOR
ANOTHER PERIOD OF TIME LATER THIS EVENING BEFORE THEY MIX OUT.
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 12-14KT WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES BUT NOT TOP
OUT MUCH PAST 22KT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH AND MIX OUT
CLOUDS AND LET WINDS SLACK IN THE LATE EVENING. FEW TO SCT CU WILL
OCCUR FOR SUNDAY.
.OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE MON NIGHT THROUGH TUES NIGHT.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR OHZ026-034-
035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>072-077-080.
KY...NONE.
IN...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR INZ050-058-
059-066-073-074.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BINAU/SITES
NEAR TERM...HATZOS/SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...JDR
AVIATION...FRANKS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
200 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT SHIFTING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT OVER
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OHIO. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL ALLOW COOL TEMPERATURES TO SPILL SOUTH AND COVER THE AREA
SATURDAY. A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL WEATHER SYSTEM WILL DIG SOUTHEAST
ACROSS OHIO AND KENTUCKY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BRINGING
A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS. IN ADDITION...THE COOL AIR FLOWING
OVER LAKE MICHIGAN MAY ALLOW A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
NORTHERN INDIANA AND AFFECT THE TRI STATE ON SATURDAY MORNING IN
ADVANCE OF THE STRONGER WAVE IN THE AFTERNOON. A DRY SUNDAY IS
EXPECTED WITH COOL TEMPERATURES LINGERING. LOOKING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...WITH A CHANCE OF
RAIN MOVING BACK INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES
INTO THE GREAT LAKES FROM CANADA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LIGHT ECHOES HEADING TOWARD THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA HAVE
DISSIPATED THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION HAS
DEVELOPED IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN AND NORTHEAST INDIANA. THE LATEST
HRRR/RAP RUNS SUGGEST THAT SOME OF THIS MAY ENCROACH THE NORTHERN
/ NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE ILN CWA...MAINLY BETWEEN 06Z-10Z.
SO...SOME LOW-END POPS HAVE BEEN LEFT IN THE FORECAST FOR THAT
TIME PERIOD.
AS THE COLD FRONT PASSED THROUGH THE AREA AND WINDS SHIFTED TO THE
WEST...THE STRENGTH OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW HAS INCREASED. THE
STRONGEST GUSTS OF THE DAY HAVE OCCURRED IN JUST THE PAST FEW
HOURS...INCLUDING 34 KNOTS AT KILN AND 33 KNOTS AT KDAY. BASED ON
UPSTREAM CONDITIONS...THE WINDS ARE UNLIKELY TO REMAIN THIS
STRONG FOR MORE THAN ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS. HOWEVER...WINDS HAVE
BEEN INCREASED SLIGHTLY FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS REMAINING AT 10-15 KNOTS AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 20
KNOTS EXPECTED EVEN THROUGH MORNING.
WITH THE FRONT LEADING TO A LITTLE BIT OF A TIGHTER TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...MIN TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED
SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION >
17.18Z RAP ANALYSIS AND OBSERVATIONAL DATA /GOES WATER VAPOR DATA/
INDICATE A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING LAKE MICHIGAN AND
EASTERN WISCONSIN. AT THE SURFACE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...IS A
STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS WRN LOWER MICHIGAN...INDIANA...INTO
SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS. LOW CLOUDS ARE STREAKING QUICKLY ACROSS NRN
INDIANA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT IN DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CAA.
GUSTY WAA/MIXING IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO
RISE TO NEAR 70F AREA-WIDE...WITH DWPTS MIXING STEADILY INTO THE
UPPER 40S AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON. IN THE PAST FEW HOURS...SOME
HIGH BASED CUMULUS HAVE DEVELOPED IN A FORCED ASCENT REGION
IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM OF THE SHORTWAVE OVER NERN IND/NWRN
OH...WITH SPRINKLES/-SHRA NOW DEVELOPING.
EXPECT SOME HIGHER-BASED SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP IN ACCORDANCE WITH RECENT HRRR...17.12Z HIRES
ARW/NMM/NAM/GEM. THESE SHOULD DEVELOP/STREAK DOWNSTREAM ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-70 THROUGH THIS EVENING SO INTRODUCED VERY SMALL
CHANCES OF A MEASURABLE SHOWER ESP FOR AREAS FROM CELINA TO KENTON
OVER TO DELAWARE. COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY CROSS THE CWA THIS
EVENING AND STRONG CAA TO ENSUE WITH BRISK/GUSTY NW WINDS. BRING
CLOUD COVER UP QUICKLY IN THE NWLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...WITH CONTINUED MENTION OF A SPRINKLE/-SHRA INTO THE
OVERNIGHT IN OUR FAR NORTH WHICH IS JUXTAPOSED WITH THE DEEPEST
/RELATIVELY SPEAKING/ MOISTURE AND MODEST FORCED ASCENT FROM THE
SHORTWAVE CROSSING MICH/LAKE HURON. LATER IN THE NIGHT /AFTER 3 AM
OR SO/...THE STRONG COLD ADVECTION SHOULD BEGIN WORKING THE WARM
SRN LAKE MICHIGAN LAKE WATERS AND ALL CONVECTION-ALLOWING GUIDANCE
INDICATES STREAMERS OF -SHRA DEVELOPING OFF LAKE MICHIGAN PUSHING
INTO ECNTL IND TOWARD THE CWA VERY LATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ON 19.12Z...THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE MENTIONED ABOVE WILL BE PUSHING
INTO UPSTATE NY...WHILE A SECOND STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS
QUICKLY SOUTHEAST INTO WIS/ILL. THINK THERE IS A LULL IN THE
SYNOPTIC FORCING FROM 12Z-18Z...SO RAIN CHANCES IN THE MORNING
QUITE SMALL. LOW LEVEL STRATUS/STRATOCUMULUS WILL BE RATHER
WIDESPREAD...BUT THERE MAY BE SOME HOLES HERE AND THERE AMIDST THE
STRONG CAA. LAKE MICHIGAN-INDUCED BANDS OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TO POSE A THREAT INTO THE TRI-STATE AREA ON A LIMITED/NARROW
BASIS...AS MOST 17.12Z CAM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST SHRA
BANDS WILL BE MAINTAINED OFF LAKE MICHIGAN INTO SERN IND/SWRN
OH/NRN KY.
THE SECOND POTENT S/W BRINGS A BRIEF BUT DEEP MOISTURE FIELD AND
COMPACT VERTICAL MOTION SIGNAL. SEEMS QPF IN THE DETERMINISTIC
RUNS MAY BE UNDERDONE GIVEN A PURELY MOISTURE/LIFT PERSPECTIVE
FROM 17.12Z NAM/GFS...BUT THERE IS ACKNOWLEDGMENT THAT ANTECEDENT
MOISTURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES IS HARDLY IMPRESSIVE. THUS...EXPECT
BAND/S/ OF SHOWERS TO SPREAD NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVE. INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES A BIT BUT THINK THEY COULD GO EVEN A LITTLE HIGHER IF
FORCING/MOISTURE SIGNAL STILL LOOKS DECENT. A CHILLY...GREY DAY
FOR THE MOST PART...WITH HIGHS ONLY MOVING UP A FEW DEGREES OFF
THE MORNING LOWS...MOSTLY LOW-MID 50S GIVEN 850MB TEMPS PLUNGING
TO 0C BY MIDDAY OVER OHIO/INDIANA. A BRISK WIND WILL ADD TO THE CHILL.
THIS FORCING QUICKLY SLIDES EAST SATURDAY NIGHT WITH CLEARING
SKIES. THIS IS IMPORTANT AND STILL A LOW CONFIDENCE POINT...IF
SUBSIDENCE IS EFFICIENT AT ERODING LOW CLOUDS...MAY BE DEALING
WITH A WIDESPREAD FROST /AND POTENTIAL FREEZE/ IN OUR NORTH/WEST
COUNTIES LATER SAT NIGHT. A FEW HOURS EITHER WAY MAKE/BREAK THIS
FORECAST...AND THIS PUTS CNTL OH/SCIOTO VALLEY IN A REAL QUESTION
MARK AS THERE WON/T BE MUCH OF A WINDOW FOR FROST FORMATION IF LOW
CLOUDS ARE SLOW IN ERODING. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT OWING TO
DECOUPLING BOUNDARY LAYER. 17.12Z NAM HAS MORE WIND AND A HIGHER
POTENTIAL OF LOW CLOUDS HANGING IN THEN 17.12Z GFS...WHICH LOOKS
VERY FROSTY IN OUR NORTH/WEST. AT A MINIMUM THINK WE/LL PROBABLY
NEED FROST ADVISORIES FOR WCNTL OH/SERN IND/PORTIONS OF SWRN OH
SAT NIGHT...WITH POTENTIAL FREEZE HEADLINES IN FAR NORTH/WEST AND
MORE WIDESPREAD FROST HEADLINES IF CLEARING IS AHEAD OF SCHEDULE.
SUNDAY BRINGS A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AS S/W RIDGING MOVES IN.
BOUNDARY LAYER SLOW TO WARM AFTER THE CHILLY START AND ONLY LOW-
MID 50S ARE SUGGESTED GIVEN LIGHT WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND
BETTER WAA REMAINING ATOP THE BOUNDARY LAYER. WARM ADVECTION
BECOMES STRONGER SUNDAY NIGHT AS THETA-E ADVECTION INCREASES AHEAD
OF NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THERE STILL
MAY BE A FROST THREAT IN CNTL OH/SCIOTO VALLEY AS THEY WILL BE
LAST TO SEE INCREASING CLOUDS/SWLY WINDS. DID INTRODUCE A SMALL
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FAR WEST/NORTH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT GIVEN
SIGNALS IN ECMWF/GFS...THOUGH NAM/SREF ARE QUITE DRY IN THE
SUBCLOUD LAYER BELOW THE ADVANCING MID CLOUD.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN GFS/ECMWF IN THE OVERALL UPR PATTERN
AND THE ASSOC SFC FEATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED...ALTHOUGH SOME
CHANGES IN BOTH MODELS FROM YESTERDAY INCLUDE A DEEPER UPR LEVEL LOW
AND THEREFOR SLOWER TO DEPART THE REGION PRIOR TO THE DEEP RIDGING
DOMINATING THE CENTRAL/WESTERN CONUS IN THE LATTER PART OF THE
EXTENDED. HAVE LINGERED SHOWERS NOW THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY IN THE
EAST AS THE UPR LOW CONTINUES TO BECOME DEEPER WITH EACH MODEL RUN
AND WILL RESULT IN PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER IN THE EAST WELL INTO
WEDNESDAY. HAVE ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT LOWS UPWARD IN THE TUE NIGHT/WED
NIGHT TIMEFRAME ACCORDINGLY WITH THE DELAY IN POST FRONTAL CLEARING.
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR UPDATES IN TEMPS/PRECIP/CLOUDS IN THE EAST
IF THE LOW CONTINUES TO SLOW/DEEPEN.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MVFR STRATOCU DECK WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION AND PERSIST THROUGH
THE BETTER PART OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS...SCATTERING OUT IN THE 3-6Z
TIME FRAME TOMORROW NIGHT. CIGS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE 2-3KFT
BUT WILL DROP BELOW THIS FOR A PERIOD OF TIME THIS AFTERNOON IN
SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT WILL OCCUR WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...ANOTHER SHOT
OF COLDER AIR WILL DROP CIGS BELOW 2KFT FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF TIME
BEFORE THEY MIX OUT. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 12-14KT WILL BE GUSTY
AT TIMES BUT NOT TOP OUT MUCH PAST 22KT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH AND MIX OUT
CLOUDS AND LET WINDS SLACK IN THE LATE EVENING.
.OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE MON NIGHT THROUGH TUES NIGHT.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BINAU
NEAR TERM...BINAU/HATZOS
SHORT TERM...BINAU
LONG TERM...JDR
AVIATION...FRANKS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
908 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014
...UPDATE...
.DISCUSSION...
A COUPLE OF ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED AND WERE MOVING
EASTWARD ALONG THE OKLAHOMA KANSAS BORDER THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS WARM ADVECTION AND A 20KT LLJ SETS UP OVER
THE CWA...AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE APPROACHING WITHIN WEST
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW. LATEST LOCAL IN-HOUSE MODEL RUNS
AND ALSO THE HRRR HAVE BEEN INDICATING A LITTLE MORE SOUTHWARD
PROGRESSION OF ANY PRECIP THAT FORMS OVERNIGHT. LATEST NAM SHOWS
THE LLJ DEVELOPING A BIT FURTHER SOUTH AS WELL. THUS...HAVE
EXTENDED POPS SOUTHWARD AND INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST SEEMS TO BE HANDLING
WELL...WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY AS PRECIP DEVELOPS
AND THUS KEEPING TEMPS WARMER OVERNIGHT COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 56 78 56 79 / 30 20 10 10
FSM 51 75 55 77 / 0 20 10 10
MLC 53 77 56 79 / 20 10 10 10
BVO 53 78 51 77 / 30 20 10 10
FYV 49 73 47 73 / 20 20 10 10
BYV 50 72 48 72 / 20 20 10 0
MKO 52 77 55 78 / 20 20 10 10
MIO 53 74 51 75 / 30 20 10 0
F10 54 78 57 78 / 20 20 10 10
HHW 52 78 56 80 / 0 10 0 0
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...20
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
1243 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014
.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/
MVFR CIGS have cleared most of the area early this afternoon. We
will see some VFR SCT clouds develop later this afternoon as
moisture continues to increase in the low levels from the east and
southeast. Expect mainly VFR conditions through the evening hours,
but MVFR CIGS are expected to move back into the area again early
Sunday morning, mainly for our southern and eastern sites, but
these low clouds could also affect KSJT and KABI for a portion of
the morning. 20
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 622 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/
AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
IFR conditions have moved into the southern terminals this
morning, as a patchy stratus deck in the 500 to 1000 foot range
spreads northwest into the area. Based on satellite trends and
model data, these ceilings should persist into mid morning and
then break up and dissipate. All sites should see VFR conditions
by noon that should continue into the early morning hours on
Sunday. Models suggest that low clouds should being to move back
into the around sunrise Sunday morning.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/
SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
Weak front has stalled and is dissipating just south of the I-10
corridor early this morning. Low cloud imagery showing low clouds
developing across the Hill Country, and spreading northwest towards
Junction and Mason. Latest RUC suggests that these low clouds will
spread into at least portions of West Central Texas and have
increased cloud cover across the Northwest Hill Country counties for
the morning hours. The low clouds are a sign of the increasing low
level moisture spreading back into the area, and this will keep
overnight lows up tonight. After lows in the low to mid 50s this
morning, lows tonight will be in the mid 50s to near 60 degrees
across the area.
LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
An upper level low will be located across northern Mexico/southern
Arizona. This low will open up and approach West Texas late Sunday
into Monday. As this feature approaches West Central Texas, moisture
will be on the increase. Although the majority of convection will
remain west of our area, isolated showers and thunderstorms will be
possible, mainly west of Sterling City to Mason line. More of the
same is expected on Monday, with the best chance of precipitation
west of a Sterling City to Sonora line. Increased cloud cover will
result in near normal temperatures, with highs Sunday and Monday
generally in the mid 70s to near 80, and overnight lows in the 50s.
Models differences arise for the middle to latter part of next week.
The GFS and ECMWF begin to diverge around Wednesday in the handling
of an upper level trough forecast across the Plains. The GFS
progresses this trough east into the Mississippi Valley, with upper
level ridging building in behind it. The ECMWF has been consistent
in pinching off an upper level low, and slowly moving it south,
across West Central Texas, late Thursday through Saturday. The
forecast was trended closer to the more consistent ECMWF, with
increasing rain chances Wednesday night into Thursday. Uncertainty
remains in the PoP forecast this far out, but rain chances may
eventually need to be increased if the ECMWF solution becomes more
likely. Temperatures from the middle to latter part of the week will
be near normal. Highs will be in the mid 70s to near 80, with
overnight lows in the 50s.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 78 54 77 58 80 / 5 0 10 10 10
San Angelo 81 56 78 56 78 / 5 5 20 20 20
Junction 83 58 80 59 80 / 10 5 20 20 10
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
622 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014
.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
IFR conditions have moved into the southern terminals this
morning, as a patchy stratus deck in the 500 to 1000 foot range
spreads northwest into the area. Based on satellite trends and
model data, these ceilings should persist into mid morning and
then break up and dissipate. All sites should see VFR conditions
by noon that should continue into the early morning hours on
Sunday. Models suggest that low clouds should being to move back
into the around sunrise Sunday morning.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/
SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
Weak front has stalled and is dissipating just south of the I-10
corridor early this morning. Low cloud imagery showing low clouds
developing across the Hill Country, and spreading northwest towards
Junction and Mason. Latest RUC suggests that these low clouds will
spread into at least portions of West Central Texas and have
increased cloud cover across the Northwest Hill Country counties for
the morning hours. The low clouds are a sign of the increasing low
level moisture spreading back into the area, and this will keep
overnight lows up tonight. After lows in the low to mid 50s this
morning, lows tonight will be in the mid 50s to near 60 degrees
across the area.
LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
An upper level low will be located across northern Mexico/southern
Arizona. This low will open up and approach West Texas late Sunday
into Monday. As this feature approaches West Central Texas, moisture
will be on the increase. Although the majority of convection will
remain west of our area, isolated showers and thunderstorms will be
possible, mainly west of Sterling City to Mason line. More of the
same is expected on Monday, with the best chance of precipitation
west of a Sterling City to Sonora line. Increased cloud cover will
result in near normal temperatures, with highs Sunday and Monday
generally in the mid 70s to near 80, and overnight lows in the 50s.
Models differences arise for the middle to latter part of next week.
The GFS and ECMWF begin to diverge around Wednesday in the handling
of an upper level trough forecast across the Plains. The GFS
progresses this trough east into the Mississippi Valley, with upper
level ridging building in behind it. The ECMWF has been consistent
in pinching off an upper level low, and slowly moving it south,
across West Central Texas, late Thursday through Saturday. The
forecast was trended closer to the more consistent ECMWF, with
increasing rain chances Wednesday night into Thursday. Uncertainty
remains in the PoP forecast this far out, but rain chances may
eventually need to be increased if the ECMWF solution becomes more
likely. Temperatures from the middle to latter part of the week will
be near normal. Highs will be in the mid 70s to near 80, with
overnight lows in the 50s.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 78 55 77 58 80 / 5 0 10 10 10
San Angelo 81 57 77 56 78 / 5 5 20 10 10
Junction 83 60 79 59 80 / 10 5 20 10 10
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
07/99/99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
326 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014
.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
Weak front has stalled and is dissipating just south of the I-10
corridor early this morning. Low cloud imagery showing low clouds
developing across the Hill Country, and spreading northwest towards
Junction and Mason. Latest RUC suggests that these low clouds will
spread into at least portions of West Central Texas and have
increased cloud cover across the Northwest Hill Country counties for
the morning hours. The low clouds are a sign of the increasing low
level moisture spreading back into the area, and this will keep
overnight lows up tonight. After lows in the low to mid 50s this
morning, lows tonight will be in the mid 50s to near 60 degrees
across the area.
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
An upper level low will be located across northern Mexico/southern
Arizona. This low will open up and approach West Texas late Sunday
into Monday. As this feature approaches West Central Texas, moisture
will be on the increase. Although the majority of convection will
remain west of our area, isolated showers and thunderstorms will be
possible, mainly west of Sterling City to Mason line. More of the
same is expected on Monday, with the best chance of precipitation
west of a Sterling City to Sonora line. Increased cloud cover will
result in near normal temperatures, with highs Sunday and Monday
generally in the mid 70s to near 80, and overnight lows in the 50s.
Models differences arise for the middle to latter part of next week.
The GFS and ECMWF begin to diverge around Wednesday in the handling
of an upper level trough forecast across the Plains. The GFS
progresses this trough east into the Mississippi Valley, with upper
level ridging building in behind it. The ECMWF has been consistent
in pinching off an upper level low, and slowly moving it south,
across West Central Texas, late Thursday through Saturday. The
forecast was trended closer to the more consistent ECMWF, with
increasing rain chances Wednesday night into Thursday. Uncertainty
remains in the PoP forecast this far out, but rain chances may
eventually need to be increased if the ECMWF solution becomes more
likely. Temperatures from the middle to latter part of the week will
be near normal. Highs will be in the mid 70s to near 80, with
overnight lows in the 50s.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 78 55 77 58 80 / 5 0 10 10 10
San Angelo 81 54 77 56 78 / 5 5 20 10 10
Junction 83 60 79 59 80 / 10 5 20 10 10
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
07/Daniels
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1156 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 6Z TAF ISSUANCE.
&&
.AVIATION...
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS
MORNING. THERE IS A BORDER LINE MVFR/ VFR CLOUD DECK FORMING
TOWARDS OUR SOUTHWEST WHICH HAVE TO HAVE AN EYE KEPT ON. MAIN
CONCERN FOR TONIGHT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY GROUND
FOG. DEWPOINT DEPRESSION AT KLBX IS NOW ZERO WHILE OTHER RURAL
SITES ALSO SHOWING TEMPERATURE/ DEWPOINT GAP NARROWING. A WEAK
SURFACE COLD FRONT IS ALSO SLOWLY HEADED TO THE SOUTH THIS
EVENING. WINDS NEAR THE FRONT ARE VERY LIGHT. THIS WILL ONLY AID
IN THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. RAP AND NEW NAM SHOWING
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS LESS THAN ONE DEGREE NEAR THE FRONT TOMORROW
MORNING. THE FOG SHOULD BE QUICK TO BURN OFF AS THE SUN RISES
THOUGH. 23
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 929 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014/
DISCUSSION...
SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 01Z SHOWED LIGHT...SOUTHERLY ONSHORE FLOW
ACROSS SOUTHEAST TX. ADDITIONALLY... A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS DRAPED
FROM ROUGHLY CARLSBAD...NM TO SONORA TO NEAR THE D/FW METROPLEX.
LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUE THE FRONT/S PATH INTO THE
FORECAST AREA TOMORROW...ENTERING THE NORTHERN ZONES AROUND 12Z.
INCREASED MOISTURE OVER THE TEXAS GULF COAST WAS EVIDENT ON
TONIGHT/S 00Z SOUNDINGS WITH KCRP/S AND KLCH/S PWAT VALUES NOW
CLOSER TO NORMAL...AS OPPOSED TO THE 25 PERCENT TO TWO STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL LAST NIGHT/S 00Z RAOBS REPORTED. SHALLOW
GROUND FOG DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA OVER THE PAST TWO MORNINGS. GIVEN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION FROM ONSHORE FLOW AND LIGHT WINDS...ESPECIALLY ALONG
TOMORROW MORNING/S FRONT...HAVE ADDED MENTION OF PATCHY FOG MAINLY
WEST AND NORTH OF THE HOUSTON METRO AREA. ADDITIONAL TWEAKS WERE
MADE TO WIND GRIDS... BUT REMAINDER OF FORECAST STILL ON TRACK.
14
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 87 63 85 62 82 / 0 10 10 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 87 64 86 63 83 / 0 10 10 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 85 71 83 69 81 / 0 10 10 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...14
AVIATION/MARINE...23
YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
620 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING A WARM FRONT RUNNING NORTH-SOUTH THROUGH
CENTRAL MN INTO A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW NEAR KINL. THE FRONT THEN
EXTENDS NORTHWEST TO LAKE WINNIPEG AS A STATIONARY FRONT WITH COLD
AIR EAST. THE SURFACE CYCLONE IS MOST CLOSELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
STRONGEST SHORTWAVE TROUGH SOUTH OF LAKE WINNIPEG WHERE
TROPOPAUSE FOLDS DOWN TO NEARLY 750 MB /PER RAP ANALYSIS/...PRETTY
IMPRESSIVE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS WEAKER TROUGH ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH WISCONSIN AT THIS TIME WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURL IN
NORTH-CENTRAL WI 20Z. THE MAIN WATER VAPOR SIGNAL IS VERY DRY AIR
BEHIND THIS FIRST TROUGH...NOT MAKING IT EASY FOR FOR THE STRONGER
LAKE WINNIPEG TROUGH TO CREATE PRECIPITATION ALONE WITHOUT LOW-
LEVEL HELP. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM IN SRN
CANADA IS EAST OF THE FRONT AND CYCLONE IN VERY LOW CLOUD. THIS
ENTIRE SYSTEM WAS SHIFTING SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES.
WILL BE CLEARING THE SPRINKLES IN THE FORECAST EAST IN THE NEXT
HOURS...AND CLEARING SKIES AS THE WI SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES. AIR
MASS IS VERY DRY IN THIS FORCING /PER KMPX AND KGRB 12Z
RAOBS/...BUT SOME STEEPER LAPSE RATES AROUND 7-7.5C/KM IN MID-
LEVELS IS CAUSING 10KFT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. ONLY HIT AND MISS
SPRINKLES HITTING THE GROUND.
WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT IN THIS EVENING AND CYCLONE
WILL PASS THROUGH THRU GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. QG FORCING ALOFT
INCREASES OVERNIGHT WITH THE LAKE WINNIPEG SHORTWAVE TROUGH...BUT
THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL DEEPER LIFT REMAINS CLOSER TO THE SURFACE
CYCLONE TRACK - MORE FOR THE NRN GREAT LAKES. AIR MASS IN PLACE
WITH THE FORCING COMING OVER THE FORECAST AREA SUGGESTS NO
WEATHER.
COLD AIR PUSH DIVES INTO WISCONSIN AND GREAT LAKES POST-LOW ON
MONDAY..BRINGING LOWER OVERCAST WITH IT. THE FRONT WILL LIE UP
THROUGH WESTERN WISCONSIN WITH LOWER CLOUDS AND SOME VERY LOW CAPE
EAST OF THE FRONT ACROSS WI. THERE MAY BE SOME SPRINKLES AROUND
NRN-ERN WI MONDAY...HAVE NOT ADD THOSE TO THE FORECAST HOWEVER.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014
MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...RIDGE BUILDING WILL DOMINATE THIS PERIOD
WITH CLEARING SKIES MONDAY NIGHT. SOME RIVER VALLEY FOG IS
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT SOME SUGGESTION OF WINDS AT THE
TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER COULD BE LIMITING. WILL ADD PATCHY RIVER
VALLEY FOG TO FORECAST FOR NOW.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
PREDICTABILITY TAKES A NOTICEABLE DROP AFTER WEDNESDAY AS SEEN IN
THE SPREAD OF DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE. IN THE LONG WAVE
PATTERN...COMPLEX READJUSTMENT IS OCCURRING IN THIS PERIOD WITH A
A DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND CENTRAL RIDGING.
WILL CONTINUE TO USE A BLENDED DETERMINISTIC FORECAST FOR RAIN
CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS IT APPEARS THE
CONSENSUS CONTINUES FOR A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE AND
SOME WEAK FORCING. SMALL RAIN CHANCES IN THE 30 PERCENT RANGE FOR
NOW ON WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY ARE CONTINUED UNTIL MORE CONFIDENCE
CAN BE BUILT IN THE SIGNAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014
A WARM FRONT WAS PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING...
FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY A COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH WITH SUNSET
AND SWING MORE WESTERLY BEHIND THE WARM FRONT AT SITES LIKE KRST
WHILE REMAINING CHANNELED BY THE RIVER VALLEY AT SITES LIKE KLSE.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST TO NORTH FOR AFTER
03Z-05Z AND THRU MON. GENERALLY SKC CONDITIONS TONIGHT AS A DEEP DRY
AIRMASS SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONTS. AN
UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION DROPPING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL SPREAD
SOME LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE...AND CLOUDS...SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA MON.
IT APPEARS THIS MOISTURE/CLOUDS WILL MAINLY SPREAD ACROSS LOCATIONS
ALONG/EAST OF THE MS RIVER. LEFT KRST WITH SCT STRATO-CU CLOUDS MON
WHILE KLSE LOOKS TO HAVE MORE OF A BKN VFR CLOUD DECK MUCH OF MON.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BAUMGARDT
LONG TERM....BAUMGARDT
AVIATION.....RRS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
600 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOR TONIGHT THRU SUN NIGHT...CLOUD AND
TEMPERATURE TRENDS.
18Z DATA ANALYSIS HAD A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED FROM
WESTERN ONT TO KS. WV IMAGERY SHOWED A RATHER VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE
EXITING THE REGION AND DROPPING INTO THE OH VALLEY. SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND THIS WAVE AND ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW WITH THE SFC-850MB RIDGE
AXIS BUILD EAST WERE CLEARING OUT THE STRATO-CU CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF
WI/EASTERN MN/NORTHEAST IA. WEST OF THE LOWER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS LOW
CLOUDS SLOWER TO MIX/ERODE...APPEARING MORE TRAPPED UNDER A STRONGER
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. WITH A RATHER CHILLY 925MB AIRMASS OVER THE
REGION...TEMPS SLOW TO WARM TODAY EVEN WITH THE SUNSHINE.
NO PROBLEMS NOTED WITH 18.12Z MODEL INITIALIZATIONS. SOLUTIONS VERY
SIMILAR FOR TONIGHT THRU SUN NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS OVER
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...THEN AS HGTS FALL WITH APPROACH/
PASSAGE OF THE NEXT STRONGER SHORTWAVE TOPPING THE WESTERN NOAM
LONGWAVE RIDGE AND DROPPING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SOLUTIONS
FAVOR A COMPROMISE OF THE EARLIER RUNS WITH ECMWF OFFERING THE
BETTER RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY. SHORT-TERM FCST CONFIDENCE IS GOOD
THIS CYCLE.
MODELS STRUGGLING A BIT AS THEY USUALLY DO WITH THE LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE/CLOUDS TRAPPED IN/UNDER INVERSIONS THIS TIME OF YEAR. GFS/
ECMWF LOOKING BETTER WITH THE POST-SHORTWAVE SUBSIDENCE/CLEARING
WORKING SOUTH ACROSS WI/EASTERN MN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE LOWER
CLOUDS MORE PERSISTENT OVER WESTERN MN/IA. AS THE 925MB FLOW BECOMES
MORE SOUTHWEST/WEST AHEAD OF THE LOW/TROUGH MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL
CAN TO THE DAKOTAS...THIS RESIDUAL 925MB MOISTURE/ANY CLOUDS OVER
WESTERN MN/IA WOULD BE ADVECTED INTO/ACROSS THE FCST AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND TIME-HGT X-SECTIONS ALSO SHOWING
PLENTIFUL 400-200MB MOISTURE AND WEAK UPWARD MOTION TO SPREAD ACROSS
THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING MID LEVEL TROUGH.
SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT STARTS TO TIGHTEN OVER THE AREA LATER TONIGHT
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SFC-850MB TROUGH...ALONG WITH MDT/STRONG
925-850MB WARM ADVECTION. RAISED LOWS A BIT TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
WEST OF THE MS RIVER.
STRONGEST OF THE LOWER LEVEL WARM ADVECTION/THERMO-DYNAMIC FORCING
MOVES ACROSS THE FCST AREA SUN MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS/X-SECTIONS
SHOWS THIS LIFT GOING INTO TRYING TO SATURATE THE 850-500MB PORTION
OF THE COLUMN. BETTER SATURATION OF THIS PORTION OF THE COLUMN
OCCURS OVER THE NORTHEAST END OF THE FCST AREA SUN AFTER...WHERE IT
IS THE COOLEST. EVEN THERE SATURATION APPEARS MARGINAL AT BEST FOR
-SHRA...AND REMOVED THE SMALL CHANCES ACROSS CLARK/TAYLOR COUNTIES
WHICH BLENDS WELL WITH NEIGHBORING GRIDS. STRONG DRYING AT/ABOVE
700MB SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA SUN NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH...WITH SOME POST TROUGH CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW AND 925-850MB
MOISTURE TO CLIP THE NORTHEAST END OF THE FCST AREA. MDT LOW LEVEL
COLD ADVECTION TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA LATER SUN NIGHT...ALONG
WITH A MODEST SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT FOR SOME WINDS/BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXING AND WARMER LOWS. GENERALLY FAVORED WARMER OF GUIDANCE LOWS
TONIGHT THEN A BLEND OF HIGHS/LOWS SUN/SUN NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOR MON THRU TUE NIGHT...TEMPERATURES AND
CLOUDS.
18.12Z MODELS IN GOOD AND IMPROVING AGREEMENT FOR RIDGING TO BUILD
EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST DURING
THE MON THRU TUE NIGHT PERIOD. TREND FAVORS A COMPROMISE OF THE
EARLIER RUNS. FCST CONFIDENCE IN THIS PERIOD IS GOOD THIS CYCLE.
MON THRU TUE NIGHT CONTINUES TO SHAPE UP AS A DRY/QUIET PERIOD AS
THE RISING HGTS/RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND SFC
HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS NEAR/OVER THE REGION. SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/
CLOUDS BEHIND THE LOW DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
LINGER OVER THE NORTHEAST END OF THE FCST AREA MON. BIT OF A BACK-
DOOR COLD FRONT AND NORTHEAST FLOW AROUND THE SFC-850MB RIDGING
NORTH OF LK SUPERIOR TRIES TO PUSH SOME LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS
WEST/SOUTH INTO THE FCST AREA LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT. PER THE
MODEL ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS...LEFT MON NIGHT THRU TUE NIGHT MOSTLY
CLEAR FOR NOW. AREA UNDER WEAK LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION MON THRU TUE
NIGHT IN THE EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW AROUND THE RIDGING NORTH OF LK
SUPERIOR. 925MB TEMPS IN THE 5C TO 12C RANGE MON AFTERNOON AND 4C TO
7C RANGE TUE AFTERNOON. CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
UNDER THE DRIER CAN HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD ALLOW FOR LARGER DIURNAL
TEMP SWINGS EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS MON/TUE LOOKING TO BE NEAR/ABOVE
NORMAL WHILE LOWS MON/TUE NIGHTS APPEAR NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL. BLEND
OF THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HIGHS/LOWS FOR MON THRU TUE NIGHT LOOK TO
HAVE THIS WELL TRENDED.
FOR WED THROUGH SAT.../DAYS 4 TO 7/...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SMALL -SHRA CHANCE CENTERED ON
THU...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD.
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS OF 18.00Z/18.12Z SHOW IMPROVING AGREEMENT
FOR RIDGING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WED WITH A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH TO BE LIFTING INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS. PLENTY OF
DETAIL DIFFERENCES WITH THIS TROUGH BY THU AS IT MOVES INTO/ACROSS
THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY BUT TREND REMAINS WEAKENING OF THIS FEATURE
AS IT MOVES THRU THE RIDGE AXIS. STRONG CONSENSUS FOR RISING HGTS/
RIDGING OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS FRI. 18.12Z GFS/ECMWF IN BETTER
AGREEMENT ON SAT VS. 18.00Z RUNS...ON AMOUNT OF RIDGING ALOFT OVER
THE REGION. 18.00Z ECMWF WAS A STRONGER/FASTER OUTLIER WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO DROP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. ITS LATEST RUN HAS
TRENDED MORE TOWARD THE GFS...HOLDING MORE RIDGING ALOFT/HIGHER HGTS
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST ON DAY 7. FAVORED A MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS
WITH AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN THE DAY 4-7 PERIOD.
MODIFYING CAN HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS OVER THE AREA WED. AREA ON THE
WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH FOR SOME INCREASE OF SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOW
LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE PLAINS LOW/SHORTWAVE. SOME LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA HOWEVER 925MB TEMPS ONLY IN THE
+7C TO +10C RANGE BY 00Z THU...FOR HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID-UPPER
50S. WEAKENING MID LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES INTO/ACROSS THE REGION LATE
WED NIGHT THRU THU EVENING. NOT MUCH FOR A SFC-850MB REFLECTION OF
THIS TROUGH. DISJOINTED LOWER LEVEL THERMO-DYNAMIC FORCING SIGNAL A
BEST BUT PW VALUES PROGGED INTO THE 0.75 TO 1 INCH RANGE WITH THE
TROUGH. SMALL -SHRA CHANCE FOR MUCH OF THE FCST AREA WED NIGHT/THU
FINE FOR NOW UNTIL THE DETAILS SORT THEMSELVES OUT. WITH REBUILDING
HGTS/RIDGING FRI...LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION QUICKLY SPREADS ACROSS
THE AREA FROM THE WEST. 925MB TEMPS IN THE 10C TO 15C RANGE FOR FRI
AFTERNOON AND SAT. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH WESTERLY GRADIENT FLOW
THERE IS FOR MIXING...CONSENSUS HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 60S FRI AND
UPPER 50S-LOW 60S SAT MAY BE 5F TO 10F TOO COOL. STAYED WITH THE
MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS HIGHS/LOWS IN DAY 4-7 GOOD FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1134 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014
BAND OF APPROX 2 KFT MVFR CIGS HAVE PERSISTED ACROSS WESTERN MN
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT HAS BEEN SHOWING DIMINISHING TRENDS. SOME
INITIAL CONCERN THAT SOME OF THESE CLOUDS COULD ADVECT EAST TOWARD
KRST/KLSE AS WINDS VEER TONIGHT. RAP RH FIELDS AND SATELLITE TRENDS
SUGGEST ANY LINGERING LOW CLOUD SHOULD STAY NORTH - AND WILL STICK
WITH THIS FOR THE FORECAST.
LIGHT SFC/NEAR SFC WIND FIELD WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD SUGGESTS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR RIVER VALLEY FOG. T/TD SPREAD WAS XX F AT
23Z...BUT THIS CAN BE OVERCOME. HOWEVER...THERE ARE A COUPLE
DRAWBACKS. FIRST IS THE HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING FOR THE WINDS RIGHT ABOVE THE NOCTURNAL
INVERSION TO INCREASE. THE SECOND IS HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING IN
FROM THE WEST...AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THIS TIME...THINK THE CLOUDS WILL BE A
BIT TARDY TO IMPACT FOG POTENTIAL AT KLSE...LEAVING THE INCREASING
WINDS AS THE MAIN DETERRENT. THINK SOME THIN BR/STRATUS WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE RIVER...BUT MAY NOT SPREAD OUTSIDE OF ITS BANKS. WILL KEEP
KLSE FOG FREE FOR NOW...BUT IT WILL NEED MONITORING.
HIGH/MID LEVEL CIGS FOR A PORTION OR THE DAY SUNDAY...WITH
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS BY MID MORNING. EXPECT A FEW HIGHER
GUSTS...WITH SUSTAINED AROUND 15KTS OR SO. WINDS WILL BECOME
WESTERLY SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE/S SURFACE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. NOT EXPECTING ANY PCPN.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION.....RIECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1134 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 237 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014
OVERALL A VERY QUIET WEEK SETTING UP ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. 18.00Z GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
23.00Z...DIVERGING THEREAFTER WITH THE SPEED AND LOCATION OF A MID-
WEEK EASTERN PACIFIC SHORT-WAVE. WILL USE A BLENDED MODEL SOLUTION
FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
FOR TODAY...THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
WILL MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND ALLOWING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY MID-
LATE AFTERNOON. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW
TO DISSIPATE THIS MORNING...BUT BOTH THE RAP AND HRRR HIGH
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SHOW CLEARING SKIES BY LATE AFTERNOON. AS A
RESULT...DELAYED CLEARING IN THE SKY GRIDS THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS BY 19.00Z. TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES QUICKLY TO THE EAST. DESPITE CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND WITH NEAR SURFACE WINDS FROM 10 TO
15 KTS...DO NOT EXPECT SIGNIFICANT VALLEY FOG FORMATION. LACK OF
CLOUD COVER AND OVERALL DRY AIR MASS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014
500 TO 300 HPA PV ADVECTION INCREASES ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORT-WAVE. MOISTURE RATHER LIMITED ALONG MID-
LEVEL WARM FRONT WITH BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FARTHER NORTH
CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW RIDING ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION ACROSS TAYLOR/CLARK COUNTIES...
BUT EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY...
BUT WITH INCREASING THERMAL PROFILE...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO
THE UPPER 5OS TO LOWER 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE BY
AFTERNOON...GUSTING AT TIMES TO 25 MPH.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS SLOWLY ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. RIDGE AXIS
CUTS RIGHT DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 21.12Z (TUESDAY
MORNING)...SO FOG POTENTIAL IS HIGHER...BUT CERTAINTY NOT GREAT
ENOUGH TO MENTION IN CURRENT FORECAST. LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY VARIATION
IN TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN
THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.
BY THURSDAY...THE ECMWF RAPIDLY BREAKS DOWN THE 500 HPA RIDGE
ALLOWING THE NEXT SHORT-WAVE TO CRUISE ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING
A QUICK SHOT OF RAIN. THE GFS...HOWEVER MAINTAINS THE RIDGE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...SLOWING THE WAVE/S EASTWARD PROGRESS AND
KEEPING RAIN WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT. THE
GFS SOLUTION ALSO WEAKENS THE WAVE RESULTING IN LESS RAINFALL. FOR
NOW...WILL KEEP LOW-END POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. HEIGHTS RISE THURSDAY...ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO REACH BACK INTO THE LOWER 60S. BY FRIDAY...
850 HPA TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM +12 TO +15 C WHICH SHOULD RESULT
IN SURFACE VALUES INTO THE MID 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1134 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014
DAYTIME MIXING PLUS DRIER AIR FLOWING SOUTH OUT OF ONTARIO HAS
HELPED BREAK UP THE MVFR STRATUS NEAR AND JUST NORTH OF THE TAF
SITES. EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT SHORTLY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES ACROSS. INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW LATE
TONIGHT...COMBINED WITH INCREASING CIRRUS CLOUD COVER...SHOULD
HELP PRECLUDE ANY VALLEY FOG FORMATION. HOWEVER...THERE IS CONCERN
THAT ANY LEFTOVER MVFR STRATUS CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS/WESTERN MN MAY ADVECT BACK INTO THE TAF SITES AS THE WINDS
VEER. HAVE ALLUDED TO THIS POSSIBILITY WITH A SCT MVFR DECK.
REGARDING THE AFOREMENTIONED WINDS...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
GUSTINESS IS ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...AROUND 18Z SUNDAY...RST AND
LSE COULD GUST IN THE 15-25 KT RANGE...HIGHEST AT RST.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS
AVIATION...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
641 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 237 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014
OVERALL A VERY QUIET WEEK SETTING UP ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. 18.00Z GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
23.00Z...DIVERGING THEREAFTER WITH THE SPEED AND LOCATION OF A MID-
WEEK EASTERN PACIFIC SHORT-WAVE. WILL USE A BLENDED MODEL SOLUTION
FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
FOR TODAY...THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
WILL MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND ALLOWING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY MID-
LATE AFTERNOON. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW
TO DISSIPATE THIS MORNING...BUT BOTH THE RAP AND HRRR HIGH
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SHOW CLEARING SKIES BY LATE AFTERNOON. AS A
RESULT...DELAYED CLEARING IN THE SKY GRIDS THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS BY 19.00Z. TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES QUICKLY TO THE EAST. DESPITE CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND WITH NEAR SURFACE WINDS FROM 10 TO
15 KTS...DO NOT EXPECT SIGNIFICANT VALLEY FOG FORMATION. LACK OF
CLOUD COVER AND OVERALL DRY AIR MASS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014
500 TO 300 HPA PV ADVECTION INCREASES ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORT-WAVE. MOISTURE RATHER LIMITED ALONG MID-
LEVEL WARM FRONT WITH BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FARTHER NORTH
CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW RIDING ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION ACROSS TAYLOR/CLARK COUNTIES...
BUT EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY...
BUT WITH INCREASING THERMAL PROFILE...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO
THE UPPER 5OS TO LOWER 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE BY
AFTERNOON...GUSTING AT TIMES TO 25 MPH.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS SLOWLY ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. RIDGE AXIS
CUTS RIGHT DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 21.12Z (TUESDAY
MORNING)...SO FOG POTENTIAL IS HIGHER...BUT CERTAINTY NOT GREAT
ENOUGH TO MENTION IN CURRENT FORECAST. LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY VARIATION
IN TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN
THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.
BY THURSDAY...THE ECMWF RAPIDLY BREAKS DOWN THE 500 HPA RIDGE
ALLOWING THE NEXT SHORT-WAVE TO CRUISE ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING
A QUICK SHOT OF RAIN. THE GFS...HOWEVER MAINTAINS THE RIDGE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...SLOWING THE WAVE/S EASTWARD PROGRESS AND
KEEPING RAIN WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT. THE
GFS SOLUTION ALSO WEAKENS THE WAVE RESULTING IN LESS RAINFALL. FOR
NOW...WILL KEEP LOW-END POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. HEIGHTS RISE THURSDAY...ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO REACH BACK INTO THE LOWER 60S. BY FRIDAY...
850 HPA TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM +12 TO +15 C WHICH SHOULD RESULT
IN SURFACE VALUES INTO THE MID 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 641 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014
A TROUGH IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN
EARLY THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE THE TAF SITES WILL REMAIN DRY.
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON AND THEN SCATTER OUT. THIS SHOULD OCCUR AROUND 18.19Z AT
KRST AND 18.21Z AT KLSE. NORTHWEST WIND REMAIN GENERALLY LESS THAN
10 KNOTS THIS MORNING...AND THEN THE WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. OVERNIGHT THE
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE INTO THE 5 TO 10 KNOT
RANGE.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS
AVIATION...BOYNE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
328 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 237 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014
OVERALL A VERY QUIET WEEK SETTING UP ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. 18.00Z GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
23.00Z...DIVERGING THEREAFTER WITH THE SPEED AND LOCATION OF A MID-
WEEK EASTERN PACIFIC SHORT-WAVE. WILL USE A BLENDED MODEL SOLUTION
FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
FOR TODAY...THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
WILL MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND ALLOWING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY MID-
LATE AFTERNOON. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW
TO DISSIPATE THIS MORNING...BUT BOTH THE RAP AND HRRR HIGH
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SHOW CLEARING SKIES BY LATE AFTERNOON. AS A
RESULT...DELAYED CLEARING IN THE SKY GRIDS THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS BY 19.00Z. TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES QUICKLY TO THE EAST. DESPITE CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND WITH NEAR SURFACE WINDS FROM 10 TO
15 KTS...DO NOT EXPECT SIGNIFICANT VALLEY FOG FORMATION. LACK OF
CLOUD COVER AND OVERALL DRY AIR MASS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014
500 TO 300 HPA PV ADVECTION INCREASES ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORT-WAVE. MOISTURE RATHER LIMITED ALONG MID-
LEVEL WARM FRONT WITH BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FARTHER NORTH
CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW RIDING ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION ACROSS TAYLOR/CLARK COUNTIES...
BUT EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY...
BUT WITH INCREASING THERMAL PROFILE...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO
THE UPPER 5OS TO LOWER 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE BY
AFTERNOON...GUSTING AT TIMES TO 25 MPH.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS SLOWLY ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. RIDGE AXIS
CUTS RIGHT DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 21.12Z (TUESDAY
MORNING)...SO FOG POTENTIAL IS HIGHER...BUT CERTAINTY NOT GREAT
ENOUGH TO MENTION IN CURRENT FORECAST. LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY VARIATION
IN TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN
THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.
BY THURSDAY...THE ECMWF RAPIDLY BREAKS DOWN THE 500 HPA RIDGE
ALLOWING THE NEXT SHORT-WAVE TO CRUISE ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING
A QUICK SHOT OF RAIN. THE GFS...HOWEVER MAINTAINS THE RIDGE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...SLOWING THE WAVE/S EASTWARD PROGRESS AND
KEEPING RAIN WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT. THE
GFS SOLUTION ALSO WEAKENS THE WAVE RESULTING IN LESS RAINFALL. FOR
NOW...WILL KEEP LOW-END POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. HEIGHTS RISE THURSDAY...ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO REACH BACK INTO THE LOWER 60S. BY FRIDAY...
850 HPA TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM +12 TO +15 C WHICH SHOULD RESULT
IN SURFACE VALUES INTO THE MID 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1110 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014
VFR CLOUDS DID WORK ACROSS THE TAF SITES LATE THIS EVENING...WITH
THE CLEAR SPOT IN THE CLOUD SHIELD SLIDING SOUTH...JUST WEST OF
KRST. MORE 1.5-2.5 KFT CIGS ARE SITUATED JUST NORTH OF THE CLEAR
SLOT...WITH SATELLITE/OBS TRENDS SPREADING THESE BACK ACROSS THE TAF
SITES AROUND 06Z.
RH FIELDS AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FAVOR KEEPING THE LOW SATURATION-MVFR
CIGS IN THROUGH SAT MORNING...WITH SUBSIDENCE POST A DEPARTING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CLEARING THE SKIES SAT
AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL DECOUPLE WITH SUNDOWN SAT EVENING...AND WITH CLEAR
SKIES...SEE SOME POTENTIAL FOR RIVER VALLEY FOG AT KLSE. A COUPLE
DETRACTORS - SOME HIGH CLOUDS COULD BE SPILLING IN FROM THE WEST
OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE
OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH SLIPS SOUTHEAST. ITS NOT A PERFECT SETUP FOR
FG...BUT ENOUGH ELEMENTS THAT IT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. COULD JUST
BE SOME THIN STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPS ON THE RIVER AND STAYS THERE.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS
AVIATION.....RIECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
354 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014
.DISCUSSION...
TODAY-TONIGHT...ONGOING THIN LINE OF SHOWERS STREAMING FROM THE
ATLANTIC INTO THE COAST IS APPROXIMATELY MARKING THE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS MORNING.
ACTIVITY HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT ALONG A ESE-WNW ORIENTED LINE
FROM OVER THE ATLANTIC INTO THE CAPE AND ACROSS SOUTHERN VOLUSIA
COUNTY.
THIS BOUNDARY HAS ALREADY LIFTED NORTHWARDS AND BECOME MORE N-S
ORIENTED THAN LAST EVENING. THE TREND WILL CONTINUE TO BE FOR THIS
BAND OF SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARDS ACROSS VOLUSIA COUNTY
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH WITH
MOST OF THE SHOWERS EVENTUALLY REMAINING OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC AS
LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
BOUNDARY. WILL KEEP ISOLD-SCT LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST ALONG
THE NORTH BREVARD AND VOLUSIA COASTS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH
A FEW REACHING INTO INTERIOR VOLUSIA COUNTY.
OUTSIDE OF THIS ACTIVITY...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY
UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL REACH
INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S OVER THE INTERIOR AND LOW 80S ALONG THE
COAST.
DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER LAND TONIGHT WITH A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS OVER THE ATLANTIC. LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 60S...WITH A FEW
UPPER 60S ALONG THE SPACE AND TREASURE COASTS.
TUE...A MID LAYER TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST COAST AND MOISTURE
RETURNING FROM THE SOUTH WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS FROM SRN OSCEOLA/SRN BREVARD SOUTH TO
OKEECHOBEE COUNTY AND THE TREASURE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON. THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE RETURN WILL EXIST FROM OKEECHOBEE COUNTY TO MARTIN
AND ST LUCIE COUNTIES WHERE ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORMS WILL BE
FAVORED. FURTHER NORTH EXTENT OF DEEPER MOISTURE RETURN MAKES
CONVECTIVE PROBABILITIES SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. WILL GO WITH A SLGT CHC
OF AFTERNOON STORMS WITH SOME DYNAMIC SUPPORT WITH THE RR QUAD OF AN
80 KT JET AND 12KM NAM SHOWS SOME DISCRETE CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN
THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BE IN THE MIDDLE 80S IN
THE PREFRONTAL AIRMASS.
TUE NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL FL AND PUSH TWD
SRN SECTIONS WITH A DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO NRN LAKE AND VOLUSIA
COUNTIES AND DEEP MOISTURE REMAINING ACROSS OKEECHOBEE COUNTY AND
THE TREASURE COAST. WILL KEEP EVENING CONVECTIVE CHANCES CONFINED TO
SRN AREAS THROUGH LATE EVENING. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
WED-THU...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TWD THE SE STATES AS A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY PUSHES ACROSS THE SRN COUNTIES WED TWD LAKE
OKEECHOBEE ON THU. NORTHERLY LOW LVL FLOW WILL VEER TO THE NE BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY WITH DEEP DRYING ACROSS NRN SECTIONS. CLOSER TO THE
SLOW MOVING FRONT DEEP MOISTURE WILL RESIDE AND WILL KEEP LOW
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAINLY ACROSS SRN SECTIONS FOR MID WEEK.
00Z GFS INDICATES TROPICAL DISTURBANCE NEAR THE YUCATAN WILL BEGIN
TO EJECT EASTWARD BY THU AFTN. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
FRI-SAT...ON FRIDAY THE MAIN CLOSED LOW AND TROUGH ACROSS THE NE
STATES WILL BEGIN TO PUSH OFFSHORE AS ANOTHER S/W ON ITS BACK SIDE
DROPS SE TWD THE CAROLINAS. 00Z GFS/ECMWF INDICATES SOME SFC LOW
DEVELOPMENT WITH THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES EAST OF THE YUCATAN WITH
CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THAT THE LOW TRACK WILL BE WELL TO
OUR SOUTH. EVEN WITH THIS SCENARIO MOISTURE MAY WRAP AROUND THE NW
SIDE OF THE ELONGATED DEEP MOISTURE AREA ACROSS FAR S FL IN THE
BAHAMAS AS THE LOW TRACKS E OR ENE. WILL KEEP HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES
IN THE SCATTERED RANGE ACROSS THE FAR SRN AREAS WHERE SOME ATLC
SHOWERS WILL MOVE ONSHORE WITH E AND THEN NE TO THE NORTH OF ANY
POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT AREA. FOR NRN AREAS...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS
FORECAST AT THIS TIME...THOUGH THIS COULD CHANGE SOME WITH LATER
FORECASTS. SEE LATEST 5 DAY GRAPHICAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FROM
NHC FOR THE LATEST INFO ON THIS SYSTEM.
SUN-MON...00Z GFS/ECMWF INDICATES ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE ARE AND
DEEP MOISTURE WILL PUSH THROUGH THE BAHAMAS AND AWAY FROM CENTRAL
FL. NE FLOW WILL VEER TO ONSHORE WITH ONLY SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCES
EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION...SPOTTY MVFR MIFG/BR THIS MORNING THROUGH 12Z IN ALL
LOCATIONS EXCEPT EAST OF KTIX-KDED-OMN. LINE OF ISOLD-WDLY SCT -SHRA
FROM ATLC CROSSING COAST AFFECTING AREAS EAST OF KTIX-KDED-KOMN
THROUGH 16Z WITH TEMPO MVFR CIGS FL020-030. OTHERWISE...PREVAILING
VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY LOCATED AROUND CAPE
CANAVERAL WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION TODAY. FOR THE WATERS
NORTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL...EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS 10-15KTS BECOMING
SOUTHEAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. SOUTH OF CAPE
CANAVERAL...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS 5-10KTS. SOUTH WINDS 10-15KTS OVER
ALL THE WATERS OVERNIGHT BECOMING WEST-SOUTHWEST TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS
THE FRONT MOVES BACK SOUTH.
SEAS 2-3FT NEARSHORE AND 3-4FT OFFSHORE WITH UP TO 5FT OVER THE GULF
STREAM. DOMINANT PERIODS 9-11SEC...WITH 6-7SEC OVER GULF STREAM.
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH A FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE WATERS WED INTO WED NIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE N
TO NE INTO LATE WEEK WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AT LEAST SCEC LEVELS BY
THU INTO FRIDAY AS WINDS INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 63 85 65 81 / 10 10 10 10
MCO 66 86 67 84 / 10 10 10 10
MLB 67 84 69 84 / 10 20 10 20
VRB 66 85 68 84 / 10 20 20 20
LEE 67 86 66 84 / 10 10 10 10
SFB 65 86 67 85 / 10 10 10 10
ORL 67 86 68 84 / 10 10 10 10
FPR 66 85 68 84 / 10 20 20 30
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...MOSES
LONG TERM....VOLKMER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
333 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014
...UPDATED FOR THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014
IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE, THERE IS A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN TO EASTERN COLORADO THIS MORNING. AT THE
SURFACE, THERE IS A TROUGH RUNNING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST TODAY
AND BE FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA TO NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BY
TONIGHT. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE AND WASH OUT,
AND ALLOW ONLY LIGHT EASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON. I DID BUMP HIGH TEMPERATURES UP JUST SLIGHTLY DOWN
ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER, AND THINK THERE COULD EVEN BE A COUPLE
OF LOCATIONS WITH HIGHS AROUND 80F DEGREES SOUTH OF THE TROUGH.
NORTH OF THE TROUGH IN THE SCOTT CITY TO HAYS AREAS, HIGHS SHOULD
ONLY REACH TO THE 73F-74F RANGE.
TONIGHT SHOULD STAY MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST
UPSLOPE WINDS AT LESS THAN 7 MPH. THEREFORE, I THINK MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO THIS NIGHT`S, RANGING FROM THE
MID 40S NORTH OF I-70 TO AROUND 50F DEGREES FROM JOHNSON TO DODGE
CITY TO PRATT, AND TO THE LOWER 50S ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.
THERE WILL JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SOME FOG TO FORM, MAINLY FROM
SCOTT CITY TO DODGE CITY TO ASHLAND. FOR NOW, HAVE PLACED PATCHY
FOG WORDING IN FROM APPROXIMATELY 09Z TO 14Z TUESDAY MORNING. THE
NAM AND RAP MODELS HAVE LESS THAN 1 MILE VISIBILITY OVER OUR
EASTERN FORECAST AREA.
OTHER THAN MAX TEMPS TODAY AND THE ADDITION OF FOG, NO OTHER
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING AS MOISTURE
INCREASES ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTHWARD AS THE DAY PROGRESSES WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION SOUTH OF THIS FRONT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST
TUESDAY THEN INTO THE ROCKIES WEDNESDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE THEN MOVES
THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WHICH WILL
IN TURN PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY
CLOUDY WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALSO INCREASE AS THIS
SYSTEM APPROACHES SPREADING WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
THE BEST CHANCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM THEN MOVES OUT OF THE
AREA THURSDAY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THURSDAY MORNING. CLOUDS WILL ALSO DECREASE
THURSDAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WHICH SHOULD SUPPRESS ANY
ACTIVITY FROM FORMING ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. AS FOR TEMPERATURES,
HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH LOWS
STARTING OUT IN THE LOWER 50S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNING WITH
MID TO UPPER 40S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014
ALL PILOTS IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS CAN EXPECT VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LITTLE OR NO CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED, AND
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER WESTERN KANSAS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 75 50 76 55 / 0 0 0 10
GCK 74 49 75 54 / 0 0 0 10
EHA 74 51 77 52 / 0 0 0 10
LBL 78 51 77 53 / 0 0 0 10
HYS 73 46 73 55 / 0 0 0 10
P28 78 52 77 55 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...BURKE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
338 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER CHANCES WILL RESUME AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
UNTIL UPPER LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD LATER THIS WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WARM ADVCTN AND THICKENING CLD COVER WL PRECLUDE MUCH MORE OF A
TEMP DROP THIS MRNG...WITH MANY READINGS FM ALNG AND N OF I 70
RISING. THE FROST ADVISORY FOR THE CNTIES SURROUNDING MORGANTOWN
WAS THUS DROPPED EARLY AS WIDESPREAD FROST IS NOT ANTICIPATED WITH
EXTENSIVE CIRROSTRATUS SHIELD/ENCROACHING ALTOSTRATUS AND GENL
TEMPS IN THE UPR 30S IN THE ADVISORY AREA EXPECTED TO BEGIN RISING
BEFORE SUNRISE.
OTHERWISE...THE APCHG SHRTWV THAT IS SPEWING UPR AND MID LVL CLDINESS
OVR THE REGION...IS STILL EXPECTED TO GENERATE SHWRS OVR BY EVE.
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS FOR LGT PCPN HAVE BEEN CONTINUED...BUT
OVRALL NMBRS WERE TEMPERED AND TIMING FURTHER ADJUSTED FOR A
LATER START GIVEN THE DEPTH OF THE DRY LYR ON THE EVE SNDING AS
WELL AS THE LATEST MDL TRENDS.
MRNG TEMPS WERE FORECAST USING HRLY LAMP GUIDANCE AND RAP NMBRS...WHILE
COOL DAYTIME HIGHS WERE TWEAKED USING GFS MOSGUIDE TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A JET STREAK MOVG THROUGH THE WRN FLANK OF THE EWD SHIFT UPR TROF
IS PROGGED TO CARVE A CUTOFF LOW OVR THE UPR OH VALLEY REGION BY
LATE TUESDAY. COOLING MID LVLS WITH THAT SYSTEM WL LOWER CONVECTIVE
THRESHOLDS AND SPPRT SHWR ACTIVITY THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH PARTICULAR
EMPHASIS OVR UPSLOPE REGIONS TO THE N AND E OF PITTSBURGH.
BY THURSDAY...MDL WORLD PROJECTS SUFFICIENT COASTAL DVLPMNT/DEEPENING
TO DIMINISH POPS OVR THE IMMEDIATE AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IN SHRTWV/VORT
PROJECTIONS THROUGH THE WRN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM IS MINIMAL...SO
HAVE MAINTAINED AT LEAST SLGT POPS OVR THE RIDGES THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EWD PROGRESS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPR LOW WITH EXPANDING RIDGE OVR
THE CNTRL CONUS SHOULD ENSURE A GENLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL CLOSE
TO THE WEEK. TWEAKED WPC NMBRS WERE USED TO REPRESENT THE LONG TERM
PD.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDS ARE EXPD WITH INCRG AC/CS THRU TDA AHD OF AN APCHG
SHRTWV. THIS SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED CDFNT IS EXPD TO BRING MVFR
CONDS AND INCRG SHWR CHCS THIS EVE AND OVRNGT.
.AVIATION /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERIODIC RSTRNS ARE PSBL THRU MID WK AS AN UPR LOW DRIFTS ACRS THE
RGN.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
15/07
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
1236 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER CHANCES AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE UNTIL UPPER LOW
PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD LATER THIS WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
POST MIDNGT UPDATE FEATURE ADJUSTMENTS TO CLD AND TEMPS BASED ON
THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL AND MDL TRENDS. IN GENL...WARM ADVCTN AND
INCRSG CLD COVER WL PRECLUDE MUCH MORE OF A TEMP DROP THIS MRNG.
FROST ADVISORY FOR THE CNTIES SURROUNDING MORGANTOWN WL RMN IN
EFFECT UNTIL THE CLDS AND SFC WIND OVR THAT AREA INCRS.
OTHERWISE...THE APCHG SHRTWV...WITH TROF AXIS OVR LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY
THIS MRNG...IS STILL EXPECTED TO GENERATE SHWRS OVR THE UPR OH REGION
BY EVE. LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS HAVE BEEN CONTINUED...BUT OVRALL
NMBRS WERE TEMPERED AND TIMING ADJUSTED FOR A LATER START GIVEN THE
DEPTH OF THE DRY LYR ON THE EVE SNDING AS WELL AS THE LATEST MDL
TRENDS.
MRNG TEMPS WERE FORECAST USING HRLY LAMP GUIDANCE AND RAP NMBRS...WHILE
COOL DAYTIME HIGHS WERE TWEAKED USING GFS MOSGUIDE TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A JET STREAK MOVG THROUGH THE WRN FLANK OF THE EWD SHIFT UPR TROF
IS PROGGED TO CARVE A CUTOFF LOW OVR THE UPR OH VALLEY REGION BY
LATE TUESDAY. COOLING MID LVLS WITH THAT SYSTEM WL LOWER CONVECTIVE
THRESHOLDS AND SPPRT SHWR ACTIVITY THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH PARTICULAR
EMPHASIS OVR UPSLOPE REGIONS TO THE N AND E OF PITTSBURGH.
BY THURSDAY...MDL WORLD PROJECTS SUFFICIENT COASTAL DVLPMNT/DEEPENING
TO DIMINISH POPS OVR THE IMMEDIATE AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IN SHRTWV/VORT
PROJECTIONS THROUGH THE WRN FLANK OF THE SYSTEM IS MINIMAL...SO
HAVE HELD AT LEAST SLGT POPS OVR THE RIDGES THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EWD PROGRESS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPR LOW SHOULD ENSURE A DRY AND
SEASONALLY COOL CLOSE TO THE WEEK. TWEAKED WPC NMBRS WERE USED TO
REPRESENT THE LONG TERM PD.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDS ARE EXPD WITH INCRG AC/CI THRU TDA AHD OF AN APCHG
SHRTWV. THIS SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED CDFNT IS EXPD TO BRING MVFR
CONDS AND INCRG SHWR CHCS THIS EVE AND OVRNGT.
.AVIATION /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERIODIC RSTRNS ARE PSBL THRU MID WK AS AN UPR LOW DRIFTS ACRS THE
RGN.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ012-
021-022.
&&
$$
15/07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
301 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014
THE CURRENT DISTURBANCE BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT ACROSS THE E THIRD OF THE CWA THIS EVENING.
LOOKING UPSTREAM...A THICK LAYER OF IFR CEILING LOOKS TO BE IN STORE
FOR MUCH OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW A TREND
SIMILAR TO THE HRRR FOR TIMING...AS IT/S HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE
PRECIP SO FAR. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN REPORTED ACROSS N
ONTARIO AS WELL AS CENTRAL AND N MANITOBA. SNOW WILL NOT BE THE
LIKELY PRECIP TYPE ACROSS UPPER MI THROUGH...IF ANY PRECIPITATION
DOES FALL TONIGHT IT SHOULD BE ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW. THIS IS
DISPUTE THE RETURN OF NNW FLOW BEHIND THE SFC LOW THAT WILL BE
SHIFTING OVERHEAD...MOVING FROM THE W THIRD OF THE CWA BY 00Z MONDAY
TO THE E HALF 06-12Z MONDAY. SFC TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN
THE LOW 40S.
AN ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM HUDSON BAY
THROUGH MANITOBA AND W MN AT DAYBREAK MONDAY WILL SLOWLY INVADE
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS....ALONG WITH A SERIES OF WAVES IN THE
N-NNW FLOW AT 500MB. FAVORABLE UPSLOPE NEAR SFC N-NNW WINDS
REMAINING ON MONDAY...AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW
850MB...AND COOL 850MB TEMPS AROUND -1C...WILL RESULT IN LIGHT
SHOWER/DRIZZLE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE DAY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. LAKE
ENHANCEMENT WILL REMAIN LIMITED DUE TO THE MARGINAL DELTA-T
VALUES...WITH LAKE SUPERIOR STILL AROUND 7C. TEMPS WILL NOT CLIMB
MUCH PAST THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014
THE UPPER TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY SWEEPING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL BE EXITING THE AREA ON TUESDAY MORNING...ALLOWING
AN UPPER/SURFACE RIDGE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA. THESE RIDGES WILL BE
OVER THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND LEAD TO DRY WEATHER FOR THE
START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE ONLY ITEM OF CONCERN FOR THIS
PERIOD WILL BE THE LINGERING CLOUDS OVER THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING
WITH THE LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR AND MOISTURE
TRAPPED BELOW THE LOWERING INVERSION (ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL WITH UPSLOPE FLOW). THESE CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE
DAY AS THE INVERSION CONTINUES TO LOWER UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE. HIGHS WILL STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY (40S)
WITH THE LIGHT FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE THERMAL TROUGH
STARTING TO DEPART THE AREA. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...SHOULD SEE ANOTHER COLD NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY
NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE LOW END OF GUIDANCE AND HAVE SOME
INTERIOR LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL REBOUND
TOWARDS MORE NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR (UPPER 40S TO MID
50S)...WITH THE WARMEST VALUES OVER THE WEST WHERE THE RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS EARLIER.
THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN WILL COME LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS AN ELONGATED SHORTWAVE RUNS INTO THE UPPER RIDGE IN
PLACE OVER THE AREA AND WEAKENS. MODELS HAVE VARYING SOLUTIONS ON
HOW THIS WILL EVOLVE...BUT THE GENERAL IDEA FOR A WEAKENING COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION IS CONSISTENT.
THUS...WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW SLIGHT CHANCES MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CWA BUT WILL KEEP IT FROM SHIFTING INTO THE EASTERN
CWA.
BEHIND THE WEAKENING FRONT AND SHORTWAVE...FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A
NICE DAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES UNDER DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND ON HOW HIGH WE WILL BE ABLE TO MIX INTO
THE WARM AIR ALOFT (850MB TEMPS AROUND 14C)...BUT CURRENT MODEL
FORECASTS HAVE MIXING TO AROUND 925MB WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE
INVERSION. THIS WOULD KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT AND BRUSHING THE
AREA ON SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURES WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND WITH THE BEST
FORCING/MOISTURE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY AND SHOW MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR SATURDAY. AN UPPER
RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH WILL QUICKLY BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA FOR
SUNDAY AND ALLOW FOR CLEAR SKIES AND NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
HIGHS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 218 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014
VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY WILL SLOWLY FALL TO MVFR AND EVEN POSSIBLY
IFR THROUGH THIS MORNING. BEST CHANCE OF IFR CEILINGS WILL BE AT KIWD
THIS MORNING...THEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AT KSAW AS WINDS
TURN NORTH TO NORTHEAST. LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
BEGINNING AROUND DAYBREAK AND LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014
LOW PRESSURE OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
OVERNIGHT...AND EXIT ACROSS LAKE HURON ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
EASTERN MANITOBA AND W MINNESOTA MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL BUILD ACROSS
ONTARIO/LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER PERIOD OF MAINLY
N GUSTS TO 25KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING OVER
CENTRAL AND E LAKE SUPERIOR. A RIDGE WILL LINGER ACROSS E LAKE
SUPERIOR INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS QUEBEC. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD LINGER INTO
FRIDAY...AS LAKE SUPERIOR GETS STUCK BETWEEN DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA...AND ANOTHER LOW NEARING FROM CENTRAL
CANADA.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
227 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014
THE CURRENT DISTURBANCE BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT ACROSS THE E THIRD OF THE CWA THIS EVENING.
LOOKING UPSTREAM...A THICK LAYER OF IFR CEILING LOOKS TO BE IN STORE
FOR MUCH OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW A TREND
SIMILAR TO THE HRRR FOR TIMING...AS IT/S HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE
PRECIP SO FAR. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN REPORTED ACROSS N
ONTARIO AS WELL AS CENTRAL AND N MANITOBA. SNOW WILL NOT BE THE
LIKELY PRECIP TYPE ACROSS UPPER MI THROUGH...IF ANY PRECIPITATION
DOES FALL TONIGHT IT SHOULD BE ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW. THIS IS
DISPUTE THE RETURN OF NNW FLOW BEHIND THE SFC LOW THAT WILL BE
SHIFTING OVERHEAD...MOVING FROM THE W THIRD OF THE CWA BY 00Z MONDAY
TO THE E HALF 06-12Z MONDAY. SFC TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN
THE LOW 40S.
AN ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM HUDSON BAY
THROUGH MANITOBA AND W MN AT DAYBREAK MONDAY WILL SLOWLY INVADE
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS....ALONG WITH A SERIES OF WAVES IN THE
N-NNW FLOW AT 500MB. FAVORABLE UPSLOPE NEAR SFC N-NNW WINDS
REMAINING ON MONDAY...AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW
850MB...AND COOL 850MB TEMPS AROUND -1C...WILL RESULT IN LIGHT
SHOWER/DRIZZLE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE DAY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. LAKE
ENHANCEMENT WILL REMAIN LIMITED DUE TO THE MARGINAL DELTA-T
VALUES...WITH LAKE SUPERIOR STILL AROUND 7C. TEMPS WILL NOT CLIMB
MUCH PAST THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014
AS OPPOSED TO LAST WEEKS MOSTLY GLOOMY WET WEATHER...MOST DAYS THIS
WEEK WILL BE DRY AND WARMER WITH MORE SUNSHINE. IT`S LIKELY MANY
AREAS WON`T SEE ANY PCPN TUE THRU SUN. INITIALLY...AN AMPLIFYING
RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL SEND A SHORTWAVE DIVING SE THRU THE
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND MON. WAVE WILL THEN EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED LOW
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THRU THE MID WEEK PERIOD BEFORE
DRIFTING NE LATE WEEK. MEANWHILE...THE UPSTREAM RIDGE WILL SHIFT E
SO THAT A ZONE OF POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES WILL EXTEND FROM THE SRN
ROCKIES ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES INTO NRN QUEBEC DURING THE MID AND
LATE WEEK PERIOD...SUGGESTING A WARMER/DRIER PERIOD OF WEATHER.
SO...AFTER A COOL START TO THE WEEK...TEMPS WILL TREND ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK. A SHORTWAVE TROF REACHING THE W COAST
MON WILL SHIFT E DURING THE WEEK...BUT WILL WEAKEN SUBSTANTIALLY AS
IT RUNS INTO THE RIDGE/POSITIVE ANOMALIES. SYSTEM MAY STILL GENERATE
A FEW SHRA IN THE UPPER LAKES THU. OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES IN WHETHER THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
REMAIN A WARMER W TO SW OR SHIFT TO THE NW TO BRING A RETURN TO
COLDER CONDITIONS.
BEGINNING MON NIGHT....PRONOUNCED MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE
SHIFTING OUT OVER THE PLAINS AND EXTENDING TO HUDSON BAY. AT THE
SFC...ASSOCIATED HIGH PRES CENTER WILL BE DRIFTING ACROSS NRN
ONTARIO WITH RIDGE EXTENDING SSW ACROSS WRN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY 12Z TUE...BRINGING LARGER SCALE
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. APPROACH OF THE RIDGE WILL RESULT IN LOWERING
INVERSION/DIMINISHING DEEP MOISTURE THRU THE NIGHT. BY 12Z...
INVERSION BASE WILL BE DOWN TO AROUND 3KFT OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. 850MB
TEMPS AROUND -2 TO -3C WILL BE MARGINAL AT BEST FOR LAKE EFFECT PCPN
DURING THE NIGHT AS THERE IS ONLY A NARROW ZONE OF WATER TEMPS NEAR
10C ALONG THE SRN SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. OPEN WATER TEMPS ARE IN
THE 6-8C RANGE. FURTHER LIMITING PCPN POTENTIAL WILL BE DEEP LAYER
QVECTOR DIVERGENCE/SUBSIDENCE. ANY DAYTIME AIDED SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL END DURING MON EVENING...AND AS WINDS VEER NORTHEASTERLY...ONLY
NCNTRL UPPER MI...AIDED BY UPSLOPE...WILL HAVE ANY CHC OF SEEING
SOME LIGHT PCPN LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT. POPS WILL BE KEPT LOW IN
THE SCHC/LOW CHC RANGE. AS THE DEEP MOISTURE PULLS OUT...LEAVING
TEMPS IN THE MOIST LAYER MUCH HIGHER THAN -10C...POTENTIAL FOR ICE
CRYSTALS IN THE CLOUD WILL BE VERY LOW...SO ONLY -SHRA WILL BE
MENTIONED IN FCST.
CLOUDS WILL DECREASE ON TUE...BUT MOST SLOWLY OVER THE CNTRL AS
ADDED MOISTURE FROM LAKE SUPERIOR COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL
HELP TO MAINTAIN A STRATOCU DECK LONGER.
TUE NIGHT SHOULD BE QUITE CHILLY UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM
WIND ASSOCIATED WITH SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER THE AREA. WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER 35-55 PCT OF NORMAL...WENT WITH MIN TEMPS AT OR
BLO THE LOWEST GUIDANCE. 20S SHOULD BE COMMON IN THE INTERIOR.
A WARMER...SUNNY DAY WILL FOLLOW ON WED UNDER MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS. ALL GUIDANCE APPEARS TOO COOL AS MIXING TO AROUND 900MB ON
FCST SOUNDINGS SUPPORTS MAX TEMPS AT LEAST INTO THE LWR 50S E AND
INTO THE UPPER 50S W.
TROF THAT MOVES ONSHORE OVER THE W COAST LATE MON WILL REACH THE
UPPER LAKES THU...BUT IN A SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENED STATE. IN
ADDITION...MODELS SHOW ENERGY IN THE TROF SPLITTING WITH ONE PIECE
SETTLING SE THRU THE PLAINS AND THE OTHER PIECE LIFTING TO HUDSON
BAY. WITH SYSTEM CONTINUING TO WEAKEN...ONLY SCHC POPS WERE INCLUDED
OVER WRN UPPER MI THU.
A WARM DAY FOR LATE OCT SHOULD FOLLOW FOR FRI AS RIBBON OF
MOISTURE/CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH DECAYING TROF SHIFTS E OF THE
AREA...ALLOWING SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY. AT THIS POINT...IT
LOOKS LIKE FRI HAS THE BEST SHOT OF BEING THE WARMEST DAY OF THIS
FCST PERIOD UNDER SW FLOW. MANY LOCATIONS SHOULD REACH AT LEAST 60F
FOR MAX TEMPS ON FRI.
AS ALLUDED TO ABOVE...MODEL DIFFERENCES DEVELOP OVER THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AS THE 00Z GFS/UKMET INDICATE MORE SUBSTANTIAL TROFFING
ARRIVING ALONG THE W COAST FRI...WHICH HELPS MAINTAIN MORE
RIDGING/WARMER CONDITIONS DOWNSTREAM INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE 00Z
ECMWF/CMC HAVE THIS TROF FARTHER OFFSHORE. THIS RESULTS IN A FARTHER
W RIDGE AXIS WHICH THEN ALLOWS A SHORTWAVE TO DIVE MORE TO THE SE
INTO THE GREAT LAKES...BRINGING A SHOT OF COLDER AIR. THE 12Z RUNS
DIDN`T HELP CLARIFY THE ISSUE...BUT IT DOES APPEAR THE ECMWF MAY BE
A BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH COOLING INTO THE UPPER LAKES. IN ANY
EVENT...WITH SHORTWAVE PASSING TO THE N OF THE AREA...PCPN POTENTIAL
LOOKS MINIMAL AT BEST...AND FOR NOW...FCST WILL REFLECT MODEST
COOLING OVER THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS STILL ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 218 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014
VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY WILL SLOWLY FALL TO MVFR AND EVEN POSSIBLY
IFR THROUGH THIS MORNING. BEST CHANCE OF IFR CEILINGS WILL BE AT KIWD
THIS MORNING...THEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AT KSAW AS WINDS
TURN NORTH TO NORTHEAST. LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
BEGINNING AROUND DAYBREAK AND LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014
LOW PRESSURE OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
OVERNIGHT...AND EXIT ACROSS LAKE HURON ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
EASTERN MANITOBA AND W MINNESOTA MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL BUILD ACROSS
ONTARIO/LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER PERIOD OF MAINLY
N GUSTS TO 25KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING OVER
CENTRAL AND E LAKE SUPERIOR. A RIDGE WILL LINGER ACROSS E LAKE
SUPERIOR INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS QUEBEC. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD LINGER INTO
FRIDAY...AS LAKE SUPERIOR GETS STUCK BETWEEN DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA...AND ANOTHER LOW NEARING FROM CENTRAL
CANADA.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1155 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014
LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS LIMITED DUE TO TRANSMISSION PROBLEMS...HOWEVER
ENOUGH LOCAL SITES AROUND WITH DEWPOINTS BEING REPORTED IN THE LOWER
TO MID 30S. WITH NEARLY CALM WINDS AND A CLEAR SKY...HAVE OPTED TO
LOWER TEMPS A COUPLE MORE DEGREES PER LATEST HRRR. OTHERWISE QUIET
NIGHT AHEAD. THE HRRR ALSO DEVELOPS SOME PATCHY FOG JUST EAST OF
THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS...AND DID NOT INCLUDE THIS IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1015 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014
NO CHANGES REQUIRED WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE OTHER THAN TO BLEND
TO OBSERVED TRENDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014
THERE ARE NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. DID LOWER
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT...INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 30S...WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED AND HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE WEST. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MAY MAKE THEIR WAY FROM
SASKATCHEWAN INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014
BROAD REX BLOCK ACROSS THE WESTERN US WITH THE NORTH COMPONENT OF
THE REX BLOCK THE RIDGE OVER MONTANA TODAY. TO THE WEST AN EASTERN
PACIFIC TROUGH REMAINS POISED TO MOVE SLOWLY INLAND ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST MONDAY. AS THIS HAPPENS THE RIDGE WILL MOVE
EAST TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS MAINTAINING A QUIET AND MILD WEATHER
PATTERN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. FORECAST PROBLEM
THEN BECOMES TEMPERATURES AS WEATHER WILL BE NIL. PAST FEW CYCLES
THERE HAS BEEN A GENERAL COOL BIAS TO 24H LOW TEMP FORECASTS SO WILL
ADJUST ACCORDINGLY. TRENDED TOWARDS CONSRAW FOR THE OVERNIGHT LOWS
TONIGHT. ON MONDAY WITH THE H500 RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SHOULD SEE HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S WEST TO UPPER 60S/AROUND
70 EAST. SREFBC HAS BEEN THE BEST GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS OF LATE SO
USED THIS FOR MONDAY THEN ADDED A FEW DEGREES AS THE WARM ADVECTION
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE BUT MARGINALLY LESS MIXING...SHOULD BALANCE OUT
WITH A WARMER TEMPS MONDAY.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014
THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE A CONTINUED WARM
AND DRY PERIOD AS A LONG WAVE RIDGE TRAVERSES EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MID-WEEK DEPICTING A LONG
WAVE RIDGE SLOWLY PUSHING EAST ACROSS NORTH AMERICA...RESULTING IN
MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER. LOOKING AT HIGHS 65
TO 75 TUESDAY.
GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE
REGION WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE UPPER RIDGE. MAIN ENERGY SPLITS TO THE
NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE A
TAD SLOWER...RESULTING IN SOME VERY LOW POPS OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND MAINLY IN THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
AFTER THE MID WEEK TROUGH MOVES TO OUR EAST...THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK ADVERTISES A FAST-MOVING QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION...KEEPING ANY SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER SYSTEMS WELL TO OUR NORTH.
EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN MAINLY IN THE 60S WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014
NO AVIATION WEATHER ISSUES...VFR CIGS/VSBYS NEXT 24HR.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1150 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014
POPULATED WITH OBSERVATIONS DATABASE AND ADJUSTED TO FIT FORECAST
OTRW NO CHANGES WITH THE LATEST ESTF ISSUANCE.
&&
UPDATE ISSUED AT 935 PM CDT CDT SUN OCT 19 2014
SKC ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF FGF CWFA EXCEPT FOR THE LOW REGION.
THE RAP WANTS TO MOVE AREA OF LOWER CIGS INTO CWFA BUT HAS BACKED
OFF ON WESTWARD EXPANSION FROM EARLIER RUNS. RAP 925 MB - 850 MB
GTE 90% RH DEPICTS THE LOW CLOUDS WELL...AND CURRENT FORECAST HAS
DECENT HANDLE ON THIS. NEWEST WRINKLE IS THE HRRR AND RAP
GENERATING AREAS OF BR/FG NEAR SUNRISE. WILL NOT ADD ATTM AS NEAR
SFC AIRMASS RELATIVELY DRY...SO EXPECT THAT ANY BR/FG WOULD BE
ISOLD AND SHORT LIVED.
&&
UPDATE ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014
INHERITED FORECAST DOING WELL. ONLY TWEAK IS TO THE TIMING OF THE
CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE EASTERN CWFA IN THE 06Z - 12Z TIME PERIOD.
THE RAP 925MB-850MB RH DEPICTS THE CURRENT CLOUD COVER IN MANITOBA
AND ONTARIO WELL...SO HAVE USED THIS AS GUIDANCE. OTRW NO CHANGE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014
EXPECT FAIR SKIES...SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH
WINDS TURNING MORE NORTHERLY AND DIMINISHING WITH NIGHTFALL.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW PUSHING FROM FAR NORTHWEST ONTARIO
TOWARDS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT AND
ACCOMPANYING SCATTERED BAND OF CLOUDS ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST AND
NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE OVERALL INFLUX OF SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER CANADIAN POLAR AIR
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SLIGHTLY LOWER DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY...BUT WITH LESSER WINDS WE CAN EXPECT APPARENT TEMPERATURES
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT TO REMAIN QUITE PLEASANT.
LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014
TUESDAY...AN APPROACHING H5 SHORTWAVE RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED WARMER
DEEP LAYER THERMAL RIDGE WILL PUSH FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO
WESTERN AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA ON TUESDAY. WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND STEADILY BUILDING WARM AIR ALOFT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
RATCHET WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE
TIMING OF A SHORTWAVE TROF THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS FROM
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. MOST PORTIONS OF THE FA SHOULD SEE
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION AS RAIN SHOWERS...THOUGH WITH THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM AND LACK OF A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
TAP WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS SUGGEST A FLATTENED H5 RIDGE OVER
CENTRAL NOAM WILL KEEP THE CENTRAL NORTHERN PLAINS DRY AND BIT
COOLER OVER THE COMING LATE WEEK PERIOD. HOWEVER TEMPS LOOK TO REMAIN
WELL ABOVE LONG TERM SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT
633 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014
EXPECT FAIR SKIES AND WEST TO NORTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON... WITH WINDS TURNING FROM
THE NORTH AND DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING. SCATTERED VFR CIGS WILL
TRANSIT ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST AND NORTH-CENTRAL MN FROM 00Z THROUGH
09Z.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...EWENS
SHORT TERM...GUST
LONG TERM...GUST
AVIATION...EWENS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
1154 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FOR THE 6Z TAFS... THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAINFALL... WITH
PERHAPS AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM AT NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SITES THIS MORNING. BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SITES DURING THE MORNING AS
WELL. OTHERWISE... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 908 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/
..UPDATE...
DISCUSSION...
A COUPLE OF ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED AND WERE MOVING
EASTWARD ALONG THE OKLAHOMA KANSAS BORDER THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS WARM ADVECTION AND A 20KT LLJ SETS UP OVER
THE CWA...AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE APPROACHING WITHIN WEST
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW. LATEST LOCAL IN-HOUSE MODEL RUNS
AND ALSO THE HRRR HAVE BEEN INDICATING A LITTLE MORE SOUTHWARD
PROGRESSION OF ANY PRECIP THAT FORMS OVERNIGHT. LATEST NAM SHOWS
THE LLJ DEVELOPING A BIT FURTHER SOUTH AS WELL. THUS...HAVE
EXTENDED POPS SOUTHWARD AND INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST SEEMS TO BE HANDLING
WELL...WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY AS PRECIP DEVELOPS
AND THUS KEEPING TEMPS WARMER OVERNIGHT COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT.
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...06
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
432 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...EARLY THIS MORNING...A DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE GRADIENT WAS LOCATED FROM SOUTH TO NORTH FROM DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS TO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. AN AREA OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE
WAS ANALYZED TO EXIST ACROSS MOST OF THE LOWER AND MIDDLE TEXAS
COAST WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS TRYING TO DEVELOP AS A RESULT. PRIMARY
FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR TODAY IS HOW HIGH/LOW TO GO WITH POPS.
ISOLATED SHOWERS EARLY SHOULD INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE THROUGH
THE MORNING AS DEEPER MOISTURE SHIFTS NORTH SLIGHTLY WHILE AN AREA
OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE TRANSITIONS MORE TO AN AREA OF SPEED
CONVERGENCE. GREATEST POPS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA WITH PERHAPS A LOCAL MAXIMUM ACROSS SE ZONES WHERE AREA OF
CONVERGENCE IS PROG BY THE RUC AND NAM TO BE THE GREATEST.
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING CHANCES ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY
WHERE SOME OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE IS TRYING TO PICK UP
ON IMPACTS FROM A WEAK MID LEVEL S/W TROUGH. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE
LOW END CHANCE POPS FOR PRIMARILY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE BRUSH
COUNTRY. NE ZONES SHOULD SEE LITTLE TO NO PRECIP TODAY DUE TO
LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE LLVL
WIND PROFILE. INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED TODAY AND FOR NOW HAVE
OMITTED MENTION OF THUNDER IN OFFICIAL FORECAST...THROUGH A RUMBLE
OR TWO WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE. MAX TEMPS TODAY SHOULD BE THE
WARMEST ACROSS NE ZONES WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL BE THE THINNEST AND
CONDITIONS THE DRIEST. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS THE
BRUSH COUNTRY EARLY THIS EVENING BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MID
EVENING WITH MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS REMAINING DRY AREAWIDE AS
DEEPER MOISTURE BEGINS TO SHIFT BACK SOUTH. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE
LOWER ON TUESDAY AS DRIER AIR BUILDS IN WITH MAX TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY AS A RESULT.
&&
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL
BE LINGER OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN
SOUTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY. MODELS DEPICT A
WEAKENING MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF NORTHERN MEXICO
AND TEXAS BIG BEND INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU ON WEDNESDAY. WILL SHOW
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER FAR WEST WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...DRIER AIR
PUSHES IN FROM THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH THE
WEAKENING SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH TEXAS ON THURSDAY...THE
DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS SHOULD LIMIT RAIN POTENTIAL. GRADIENT
WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WHILE THE
LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE DEVELOPS. MODERATE EAST TO
NORTHEAST WINDS COULD LEAD TO SCA CONDITIONS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS
DURING THIS PERIOD. TIDE LEVELS MAY INCREASE TO ABOUT A FOOT ABOVE
PREDICTED BY WEDNESDAY AS HIGHER SWELLS AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW
AFFECT THE COAST. 00Z ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
STRONG MID LEVEL LOW MOVING FROM SOUTHEAST TEXAS FRIDAY INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO SATURDAY...WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW MORE
PROGRESSIVE. EXPECT DRIER CONDITIONS AND WEAK NORTHEAST WINDS TO
PREVAIL FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH A WEAK ONSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPING BY SUNDAY. MILD MORNING LOWS ARE EXPECTED WHILE HIGH
TEMPS REBOUND TO NEAR-SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY THE WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 84 70 86 66 84 / 40 10 20 10 10
VICTORIA 86 62 87 60 84 / 10 10 10 10 10
LAREDO 85 71 87 67 86 / 40 20 20 20 20
ALICE 85 69 88 65 86 / 50 10 20 20 10
ROCKPORT 85 70 86 69 84 / 20 10 10 10 10
COTULLA 85 68 86 63 86 / 20 10 20 10 10
KINGSVILLE 85 70 87 66 85 / 50 10 20 20 10
NAVY CORPUS 85 73 85 71 83 / 40 10 20 10 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
RH/79...SHORT TERM
TMT/89...LONG TERM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1146 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING A WARM FRONT RUNNING NORTH-SOUTH THROUGH
CENTRAL MN INTO A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW NEAR KINL. THE FRONT THEN
EXTENDS NORTHWEST TO LAKE WINNIPEG AS A STATIONARY FRONT WITH COLD
AIR EAST. THE SURFACE CYCLONE IS MOST CLOSELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
STRONGEST SHORTWAVE TROUGH SOUTH OF LAKE WINNIPEG WHERE
TROPOPAUSE FOLDS DOWN TO NEARLY 750 MB /PER RAP ANALYSIS/...PRETTY
IMPRESSIVE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS WEAKER TROUGH ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH WISCONSIN AT THIS TIME WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURL IN
NORTH-CENTRAL WI 20Z. THE MAIN WATER VAPOR SIGNAL IS VERY DRY AIR
BEHIND THIS FIRST TROUGH...NOT MAKING IT EASY FOR FOR THE STRONGER
LAKE WINNIPEG TROUGH TO CREATE PRECIPITATION ALONE WITHOUT LOW-
LEVEL HELP. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM IN SRN
CANADA IS EAST OF THE FRONT AND CYCLONE IN VERY LOW CLOUD. THIS
ENTIRE SYSTEM WAS SHIFTING SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES.
WILL BE CLEARING THE SPRINKLES IN THE FORECAST EAST IN THE NEXT
HOURS...AND CLEARING SKIES AS THE WI SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES. AIR
MASS IS VERY DRY IN THIS FORCING /PER KMPX AND KGRB 12Z
RAOBS/...BUT SOME STEEPER LAPSE RATES AROUND 7-7.5C/KM IN MID-
LEVELS IS CAUSING 10KFT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. ONLY HIT AND MISS
SPRINKLES HITTING THE GROUND.
WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT IN THIS EVENING AND CYCLONE
WILL PASS THROUGH THRU GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. QG FORCING ALOFT
INCREASES OVERNIGHT WITH THE LAKE WINNIPEG SHORTWAVE TROUGH...BUT
THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL DEEPER LIFT REMAINS CLOSER TO THE SURFACE
CYCLONE TRACK - MORE FOR THE NRN GREAT LAKES. AIR MASS IN PLACE
WITH THE FORCING COMING OVER THE FORECAST AREA SUGGESTS NO
WEATHER.
COLD AIR PUSH DIVES INTO WISCONSIN AND GREAT LAKES POST-LOW ON
MONDAY..BRINGING LOWER OVERCAST WITH IT. THE FRONT WILL LIE UP
THROUGH WESTERN WISCONSIN WITH LOWER CLOUDS AND SOME VERY LOW CAPE
EAST OF THE FRONT ACROSS WI. THERE MAY BE SOME SPRINKLES AROUND
NRN-ERN WI MONDAY...HAVE NOT ADD THOSE TO THE FORECAST HOWEVER.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014
MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...RIDGE BUILDING WILL DOMINATE THIS PERIOD
WITH CLEARING SKIES MONDAY NIGHT. SOME RIVER VALLEY FOG IS
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT SOME SUGGESTION OF WINDS AT THE
TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER COULD BE LIMITING. WILL ADD PATCHY RIVER
VALLEY FOG TO FORECAST FOR NOW.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
PREDICTABILITY TAKES A NOTICEABLE DROP AFTER WEDNESDAY AS SEEN IN
THE SPREAD OF DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE. IN THE LONG WAVE
PATTERN...COMPLEX READJUSTMENT IS OCCURRING IN THIS PERIOD WITH A
A DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND CENTRAL RIDGING.
WILL CONTINUE TO USE A BLENDED DETERMINISTIC FORECAST FOR RAIN
CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS IT APPEARS THE
CONSENSUS CONTINUES FOR A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE AND
SOME WEAK FORCING. SMALL RAIN CHANCES IN THE 30 PERCENT RANGE FOR
NOW ON WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY ARE CONTINUED UNTIL MORE CONFIDENCE
CAN BE BUILT IN THE SIGNAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST TO NORTH FOR LATE TONIGHT...
MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING. WIND SPEEDS MOSTLY 6-12KTS WITH WITH
DIURNAL WARMING/MIXING ALLOWING FOR SOME 20KT GUSTS AT KRST DURING
THE EARLY/MID AFTERNOON HOURS. QUIET/SKC VFR CONDITIONS THRU 14Z
THIS MORNING. CYCLONIC FLOW WRAPPING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL
SPREAD SOME LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA MON...
MAINLY ALONG/EAST OF THE MS RIVER. LEFT KRST WITH SCT STRATO-CU
CLOUDS MON WHILE KLSE LOOKS TO HAVE MORE OF A BKN-SCT VFR CLOUD DECK
MUCH OF MON. SIGNAL FOR THIS MOISTURE TO THIN WITH SOME STRONGER 925-
700MB SUBSIDENCE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA MON EVENING. WILL SCATTER
OUT THE CLOUDS AT KLSE AFTER 23Z FOR NOW...BUT GIVEN WEAK CYCLONIC
925MB FLOW AND PLENTY OF CLOUDS/MOISTURE UPSTREAM ACROSS ONTARIO...
AND A STRONG INVERSION NEAR 850MB...CONFIDENCE IN A QUICK DECREASE
OF CLOUDS MON EVENING IS AVERAGE AT BEST.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BAUMGARDT
LONG TERM....BAUMGARDT
AVIATION.....RRS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SACRAMENTO CA
900 AM PDT Mon Oct 20 2014
.Synopsis...
Frontal system will provide cooler temperatures and precipitation
chances from this morning through tonight. Thunderstorms expected
this afternoon/evening, especially the Sacramento Valley. Another
storm system will cause shower chances mainly for northern areas
from Wednesday into the weekend.
&&
.Updated Discussion...
Light rain has entered western Shasta and Tehama counties this
morning. Redding has had some light rain in the area, but not
quite to the airport yet. This front is a fairly slow mover.
Tracking the back edge of the frontal band, it is moving at about
15 mph. So based on the front edge of the radar returns, rain
should begin by 1000 for Chico and probably not until around noon
for the Sacramento area. The front is weakening as it moves
inland, so not much rain is expected.
Spotters in northern Sac Valley and adjacent foohills...keep your
eyes peeled, please.
As the front tracks eastward, the northern Sacramento will move
into the more unstable post-frontal air. The cold core portion of
the Low is showing some enhanced convection near and just inside
of 130W off NW CA. Skies should clear out across the northern Sac
Valley by early afternoon. BUFKIT NAM shows CAPE of 200-300 by
late afternoon and over 800 in the evening, while the HRRR shows
between 200-600 J/kg. The BUFKIT soundings even look to be
underestimating the max heating surface temperature of 17C. Our
forecast has 21C and the NAM CAPE would be significantly higher
with an adjusted sounding.
JClapp
.Extended Discussion (Friday through Monday)
The next main weather impact will be a large low that develops in
the Gulf of Alaska by Wednesday and impacts our region into the
weekend. Rain chances should nudge into the Coastal Range late
Wednesday night with light rain that will spread farther inland at
times for the rest of the week. For Thursday, rain chances will
stay generally north of Interstate 80. Main change from previous
forecasts is that the models are in better agreement as to our wet
weather outlook for the end of the week. From Friday into
Saturday, that low in the Gulf of Alaska will dig southward and
move into the west coast which should spread chances of rain
across all of our CWA into the San Joaquin valley so have
increased PoPs to reflect this. This trough will push eastward on
Sunday and Monday. There will still be lingering chances of rain,
but they will be diminished in areal coverage and be limited to
areas north of I-80 and mainly across higher terrain. Daytime
highs in the extended period will be fairly consistent at near
seasonal to about 5 degrees below normal. JBB
&&
.Aviation...
Generally VFR conditions today with lowering clouds and stronger
southerly winds as a cold front moves through the area today.
Precipitation and lower clouds over the coastal mountains will
spread inland extending over the northern Sacramento Valley by
around 15 z, bringing local MVFR conditions there. MVFR
conditions with local IFR are possible over the Mountains. ISOLD
TSRA possible this afternoon and evening. EK
&&
.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
1035 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014
.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT...REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED ALONG AND TO THE
ESE OF KXMR...THOUGH IN THE LAST FEW HOURS SEEMS TO BE STARTING ITS
ADVERTISED NWD PIVOT (INTERESTING TO SEE THE FRONTOLYTIC "SHEDDING"
OF VORTICITY ALONG IT IN VIS IMAGERY THIS MORNING). OVERNIGHT SHRA
AND SPRINKLES OVER VOLUSIA/NRN BREVARD COS SAVE FOR A FEW SMALLER
CELLS JUST OFFSHORE MOSQUITO LAGOON-EDGEWATER. SOME CLOUDS STILL
LINGERING IN THIS AREA...OTHERWISE SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT EASTERLY
WINDS FOR THE MOST PART...WITH 14Z TEMPS IN THE U70S AREAWIDE.
MORNING RAOBS FROM BOTH JAX/XMR SHOW THE REMNANT FRONTAL MOISTURE
BELOW H75...WHILE SHALLOWER/MORE SPARSE MOISTURE EXISTS TO BOTH THE
SOUTH (MFL) AND WEST (TBW).
REST OF TODAY....FEW LINGERING SPRINKLES ALONG COASTAL VOLUSIA WILL
LIFT NORTH AND PULL OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES WITH TEMPS WARMING TO THE U80S INLAND...AND M80S CLOSER TO
THE COAST.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR. SOME BKN VFR CIGS BKN040-060 TIX-DAB THROUGH ABOUT
16Z-17Z.
&&
.MARINE...CURRENT BUOY AND C-MAN OBS SHOW SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 4FT
OFFSHORE UNDER A GENTLE TO MODERATE ONSHORE WIND...VEERING FROM E TO
ESE-SE. 3-4FT SEAS LIKELY FALLING BACK FURTHER TO ~3FT BY TONIGHT.
&&
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX....WIMMER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014/
TONIGHT...DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER LAND TONIGHT WITH A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE ATLANTIC. LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 60S...WITH
A FEW UPPER 60S ALONG THE SPACE AND TREASURE COASTS.
TUE...A MID LAYER TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST COAST AND MOISTURE
RETURNING FROM THE SOUTH WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS FROM SRN OSCEOLA/SRN BREVARD SOUTH TO
OKEECHOBEE COUNTY AND THE TREASURE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON. THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE RETURN WILL EXIST FROM OKEECHOBEE COUNTY TO MARTIN
AND ST LUCIE COUNTIES WHERE ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORMS WILL BE
FAVORED. FURTHER NORTH EXTENT OF DEEPER MOISTURE RETURN MAKES
CONVECTIVE PROBABILITIES SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. WILL GO WITH A SLGT CHC
OF AFTERNOON STORMS WITH SOME DYNAMIC SUPPORT WITH THE RR QUAD OF AN
80 KT JET AND 12KM NAM SHOWS SOME DISCRETE CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN
THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BE IN THE MIDDLE 80S IN
THE PREFRONTAL AIRMASS.
TUE NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL FL AND PUSH TWD
SRN SECTIONS WITH A DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO NRN LAKE AND VOLUSIA
COUNTIES AND DEEP MOISTURE REMAINING ACROSS OKEECHOBEE COUNTY AND
THE TREASURE COAST. WILL KEEP EVENING CONVECTIVE CHANCES CONFINED TO
SRN AREAS THROUGH LATE EVENING. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
WED-THU...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TWD THE SE STATES AS A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY PUSHES ACROSS THE SRN COUNTIES WED TWD LAKE
OKEECHOBEE ON THU. NORTHERLY LOW LVL FLOW WILL VEER TO THE NE BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY WITH DEEP DRYING ACROSS NRN SECTIONS. CLOSER TO THE
SLOW MOVING FRONT DEEP MOISTURE WILL RESIDE AND WILL KEEP LOW
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAINLY ACROSS SRN SECTIONS FOR MID WEEK.
00Z GFS INDICATES TROPICAL DISTURBANCE NEAR THE YUCATAN WILL BEGIN
TO EJECT EASTWARD BY THU AFTN. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
FRI-SAT...ON FRIDAY THE MAIN CLOSED LOW AND TROUGH ACROSS THE NE
STATES WILL BEGIN TO PUSH OFFSHORE AS ANOTHER S/W ON ITS BACK SIDE
DROPS SE TWD THE CAROLINAS. 00Z GFS/ECMWF INDICATES SOME SFC LOW
DEVELOPMENT WITH THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES EAST OF THE YUCATAN WITH
CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THAT THE LOW TRACK WILL BE WELL TO
OUR SOUTH. EVEN WITH THIS SCENARIO MOISTURE MAY WRAP AROUND THE NW
SIDE OF THE ELONGATED DEEP MOISTURE AREA ACROSS FAR S FL IN THE
BAHAMAS AS THE LOW TRACKS E OR ENE. WILL KEEP HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES
IN THE SCATTERED RANGE ACROSS THE FAR SRN AREAS WHERE SOME ATLC
SHOWERS WILL MOVE ONSHORE WITH E AND THEN NE TO THE NORTH OF ANY
POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT AREA. FOR NRN AREAS...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS
FORECAST AT THIS TIME...THOUGH THIS COULD CHANGE SOME WITH LATER
FORECASTS. SEE LATEST 5 DAY GRAPHICAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FROM
NHC FOR THE LATEST INFO ON THIS SYSTEM.
SUN-MON...00Z GFS/ECMWF INDICATES ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE ARE AND
DEEP MOISTURE WILL PUSH THROUGH THE BAHAMAS AND AWAY FROM CENTRAL
FL. NE FLOW WILL VEER TO ONSHORE WITH ONLY SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCES
EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION...SPOTTY MVFR MIFG/BR THIS MORNING THROUGH 12Z IN ALL
LOCATIONS EXCEPT EAST OF KTIX-KDED-KOMN. LINE OF ISOLD-WDLY SCT
-SHRA FROM ATLC CROSSING COAST AFFECTING AREAS EAST OF KTIX-KDED
-KOMN THROUGH 16Z WITH TEMPO MVFR CIGS FL020-030. OTHERWISE...
PREVAILING VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY LOCATED AROUND CAPE
CANAVERAL WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION TODAY. FOR THE WATERS
NORTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL...EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS 10-15KTS BECOMING
SOUTHEAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. SOUTH OF CAPE
CANAVERAL...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS 5-10KTS. SOUTH WINDS 10-15KTS OVER
ALL THE WATERS OVERNIGHT BECOMING WEST-SOUTHWEST TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS
THE FRONT MOVES BACK SOUTH.
SEAS 2-3FT NEARSHORE AND 3-4FT OFFSHORE WITH UP TO 5FT OVER THE GULF
STREAM. DOMINANT PERIODS 9-11SEC...WITH 6-7SEC OVER GULF STREAM.
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH A FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE WATERS WED INTO WED NIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE N
TO NE INTO LATE WEEK WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AT LEAST SCEC LEVELS BY
THU INTO FRIDAY AS WINDS INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 63 85 65 81 / 10 10 10 10
MCO 66 86 67 84 / 10 10 10 10
MLB 67 84 69 84 / 10 20 10 20
VRB 66 85 68 84 / 10 20 20 20
LEE 67 86 66 84 / 10 10 10 10
SFB 65 86 67 85 / 10 10 10 10
ORL 67 86 68 84 / 10 10 10 10
FPR 66 85 68 84 / 10 20 20 30
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
845 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014
.UPDATE (REST OF TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
13Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. NORTHERN STREAM FLOW
ARRIVES OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST AND
QUICKLY RIDGES WELL NORTH THROUGH THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. THE FLOW
THEN DIVES BACK TO THE SOUTH INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES
REGION. A POTENT SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW DROPPING OUT OF
THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL ACT TO EVEN FURTHER AMPLIFY THE NORTHERN
STREAM AS IT CARVES OUT A DEEP TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY
THIS TIME TOMORROW. THE FLOW IS CURRENTLY MORE ZONAL IN NATURE OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST/FLORIDA PENINSULA...BUT WILL BECOME MORE
CYCLONIC IN NATURE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE AMPLIFYING
EASTERN TROUGH TAKES FORM.
TAKING A PEAK AT THE MORNING 20/12Z KTBW SOUNDING PROFILE...THE
COLUMN IS STILL VERY DRY. FAIRLY OBVIOUS WHY OUR SKIES ARE MOSTLY
CLEAR THIS MORNING. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS THROUGH A GOOD CHUNK OF THE
MID-LEVELS ARE RUNNING 35C...TO AS MUCH AS 50C. THE CALCULATED PW
VALUE WAS 0.69" WHICH IS GETTING DOWN TOWARD 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
BELOW CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE MIDDLE OF OCTOBER. SO...YA...ITS DRY.
AT THE SURFACE...OUR REGION CURRENTLY RESIDES IN A SYNOPTIC EASTERLY
FLOW BETWEEN A 1020MB RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE CAROLINA
COAST...AND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO/BAY OF CAMPECHE. ONE CAN MAKE AN ARGUMENT FOR A SUBTLE
BOUNDARY FEATURE/WARM FRONT SOMEWHERE NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE I-4
CORRIDOR. THIS BOUNDARY REALLY IS JUST A SURFACE DEWPOINT
GRADIENT...AND SHOULD TEND TO WASH OUT THROUGH THE DAY. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ALSO LOOKS AS THOUGH IT WILL RELAX SOMEWHAT THROUGH TODAY
AS THE LOW REMAIN IN PLACE...AND THE HIGH CENTER DRIFTS FURTHER EAST
INTO THE ATLANTIC. THE WEAKENING GRADIENT SHOULD ALLOW AT LEAST A
FEEBLE SEA-BREEZE CIRCULATION TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND TURN
OUR WINDS ONSHORE AT THE BEACHES.
REST OF TODAY...ANOTHER QUIET AND BENIGN FORECAST AND TERMS OF
SENSIBLE WEATHER. A DRY ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN AND VERY LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFTING MECHANISMS WILL KEEP THE FORECAST RAIN
FREE. WITH PLENTY OF INSOLATION THROUGH THE DAY...AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MIX OUT TO THE LOWER/MIDDLE 80S FROM I-4
NORTHWARD AND MIDDLE/UPPER 80S FURTHER SOUTH. THESE TEMPERATURES
REPRESENT HIGHS A FEW DEGREES "ABOVE NORMAL" FOR OCTOBER 20TH.
LIKELY TO SEE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST
ONCE THE WIND SHIFTS ONSHORE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NATURE COAST
WHERE NEARSHORE SATELLITE DERIVED SST VALUES HAVE COOLED INTO THE
UPPER 70S.
AS THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS OVER THE EASTERN GULF/FL PENINSULA TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING...WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE A SIGNIFICANT AND DEEP
LAYER SURGE OF MOISTURE RETURN UP INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FL
PENINSULA. DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY WITHIN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
WILL BE WATCHING A DECENT UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK CROSSING THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. THE RESULTING DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT TO
THE SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH A BROAD ZONE OF Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENT WILL BECOME COINCIDENT WITHIN THE REGION OF BEST MOISTURE
RETURN OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA TO SUPPORT SHOWER
CHANCES ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. NOW...JUST
HOW FAR NORTH THE SHOWERS GET WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE EXTENT OF
MOISTURE RETURN...SINCE THE SYNOPTIC LIFTING MECHANISMS WILL
CERTAINLY EXIST OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...ENSEMBLE
CONSENSUS WOULD SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCES FOR ADEQUATE COLUMN
MOISTURE SHOULD EXIST SOUTH OF A LINE FROM SAY SARASOTA TO
SEBRING...WITH HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES DOWN TOWARD FORT MYERS AND
SOUTHWARD. INHERITED FORECAST HAS CHANCE 30-40% POPS FOR THESE FAR
SOUTHERN ZONES TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WILL EVALUATE THE 12Z GUIDANCE FOR
THE NEXT FORECAST PACKAGE...BUT IF THE GUIDANCE DOES NOT DEVIATE
MUCH WITH THIS NEXT RUN...RAIN CHANCES MAY NEED TO BE RAISED A BIT
DOWN SOUTH. EVEN IF RAIN CHANCES ARE RAISED...ACCUMULATIONS STILL
LOOK TO BE LIGHT AS NONE OF THE LIFTING MECHANISMS ARE PARTICULARLY
STRONG...JUST SIMPLY ADDITIVE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RETURNING SHOWERS TO
THE FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...
CONDITIONS ARE PREVAILING VFR ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. WAS A
BIT OF PATCHY FOG AROUND SUNRISE...BUT THESE PATCHES ARE QUICKLY
LIFTING WITH THE ONSET OF DIURNAL HEATING. THE REST OF THE TAF
PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS. WINDS DIRECTIONS
WILL BECOME VARIABLE AT TIMES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPS AND TRIES TO MIGRATE INLAND. EXPECTING GENERALLY 10
KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 15 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY...EXCEPT FOR ALONG THE COASTLINE WHERE A SEA BREEZE WILL SET UP
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL THEN DECREASE THIS EVENING
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. WITH THE LIGHTER WINDS...SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LESS THAN 2 FEET UNTIL MID WEEK WHEN THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND A LOW
PRESSURE CENTER MOVING THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS. WINDS WILL BE
OUT OF A NORTHEAST DIRECTION AND MAY INCREASE TO NEAR SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA...DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO
OUR SOUTH THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATER PORTION OF THE WEEK. THE
FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH TODAY BUT RAIN CHANCES INCREASE FOR
THE SOUTHERN WATERS STARTING TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 86 70 85 69 / 0 0 10 10
FMY 88 70 84 71 / 0 10 40 30
GIF 86 69 85 68 / 0 0 20 10
SRQ 85 67 83 68 / 0 10 20 20
BKV 87 59 85 59 / 0 0 10 10
SPG 85 72 84 72 / 0 0 10 10
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE/AVIATION...MROCZKA
MARINE...WYNN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
619 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014
...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014
IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE, THERE IS A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN TO EASTERN COLORADO THIS MORNING. AT THE
SURFACE, THERE IS A TROUGH RUNNING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST TODAY
AND BE FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA TO NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BY
TONIGHT. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE AND WASH OUT,
AND ALLOW ONLY LIGHT EASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON. I DID BUMP HIGH TEMPERATURES UP JUST SLIGHTLY DOWN
ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER, AND THINK THERE COULD EVEN BE A COUPLE
OF LOCATIONS WITH HIGHS AROUND 80F DEGREES SOUTH OF THE TROUGH.
NORTH OF THE TROUGH IN THE SCOTT CITY TO HAYS AREAS, HIGHS SHOULD
ONLY REACH TO THE 73F-74F RANGE.
TONIGHT SHOULD STAY MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST
UPSLOPE WINDS AT LESS THAN 7 MPH. THEREFORE, I THINK MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO THIS NIGHT`S, RANGING FROM THE
MID 40S NORTH OF I-70 TO AROUND 50F DEGREES FROM JOHNSON TO DODGE
CITY TO PRATT, AND TO THE LOWER 50S ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.
THERE WILL JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SOME FOG TO FORM, MAINLY FROM
SCOTT CITY TO DODGE CITY TO ASHLAND. FOR NOW, HAVE PLACED PATCHY
FOG WORDING IN FROM APPROXIMATELY 09Z TO 14Z TUESDAY MORNING. THE
NAM AND RAP MODELS HAVE LESS THAN 1 MILE VISIBILITY OVER OUR
EASTERN FORECAST AREA.
OTHER THAN MAX TEMPS TODAY AND THE ADDITION OF FOG, NO OTHER
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING AS MOISTURE
INCREASES ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTHWARD AS THE DAY PROGRESSES WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION SOUTH OF THIS FRONT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST
TUESDAY THEN INTO THE ROCKIES WEDNESDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE THEN MOVES
THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WHICH WILL
IN TURN PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY
CLOUDY WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALSO INCREASE AS THIS
SYSTEM APPROACHES SPREADING WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
THE BEST CHANCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM THEN MOVES OUT OF THE
AREA THURSDAY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THURSDAY MORNING. CLOUDS WILL ALSO DECREASE
THURSDAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WHICH SHOULD SUPPRESS ANY
ACTIVITY FROM FORMING ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. AS FOR TEMPERATURES,
HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH LOWS
STARTING OUT IN THE LOWER 50S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNING WITH
MID TO UPPER 40S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 617 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014
PATCHY DENSE FOG DOWN TO A QUARTER OF A MILE WILL BE FOUND ACROSS
THE DDC TERMINAL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BRINGING LIFR
CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE DAY ACROSS THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE
NORTH THIS MORNING SHIFTING TO MORE OF AN EASTERLY DIRECTION BY
THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 75 50 76 55 / 0 0 0 10
GCK 74 49 75 54 / 0 0 0 10
EHA 74 51 77 52 / 0 0 0 10
LBL 78 51 77 53 / 0 0 0 10
HYS 73 46 73 55 / 0 0 0 10
P28 78 52 77 55 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
1139 AM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014
...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1135 AM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014
The area of rain associated with this morning`s PV anomaly continues
to slowly shift to the east. Coverage of showers across south
central Kentucky is a bit higher late this morning than previously
anticipated so have bumped up pops for the next few hours. Isolated
to scattered showers will continue to be possible this afternoon and
into the evening hours as a front approaches and moves into the
area.
Issued at 928 AM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014
The narrow line of showers continues to slowly move east across the
area. In addition, a few showers have popped up both north and south
of this line. In general the forecast is in pretty good shape. The
pop grids were updated to include a slight chance for precipitation
across south central KY where the forecast was dry before. Also
brought grids in line with current observations.
Issued at 615 AM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014
A narrow line of showers has developed over southern Indiana ahead
of an approaching PV anomaly from the NW. These light showers will
continue to push east across the northern half of the CWA through
the morning. Have increased chances to likely (60-70% coverage)
along a narrow axis in southern IN and northern KY to account. The
highest pops will roughly be along and several miles either side of
the I-64 corridor. Areas north and south of this region can expect
isolated to widely scattered light rain showers through the morning
and early afternoon.
Refer to the 20/00z or 20/06z NAM or recent runs of the HRRR as they
appear to have a good handle on what will transpire with light rain
today.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014
Things are quiet across the CWA at this hour, with only some mid and
upper level sky cover in place, and temperatures running in the low
and mid 40s. Will watch chances for isolated to scattered rain
showers increase over the next few hours ahead of a PV anomaly
diving in from the upper Midwest. Light rain showers have already
begun to organize from NW Indiana through southern Missouri ahead of
this feature, and expect a cluster of these showers to mainly focus
over southern Indiana and northern Kentucky later this morning. Less
impressed with measurable rain chances across south central KY where
there will be less moisture and more displaced from the best
forcing. Can`t rule out an isolated sprinkle, but think measurable
rain will be hard to come by. Will see temperatures warm to the mid
and upper 60s today on a steady SW wind, despite the lack of strong
solar insolation.
Will keep an chances for an isolated shower in across the far NE
into the late evening hours where deep moisture will be most
impressive. Things should dry out after Midnight. Will see milder
lows tonight under cloud cover and a somewhat mixy near-surface
environment.
Will have one more shot at isolated light rain showers across our NE
on Tuesday morning as another wave dives into the mean trough over
the eastern CONUS, and combines with the lingering low level
moisture. Most spots will stay dry this day with a fairly sizable
temperature gradient across the CWA. Look for upper 50s NE to mid to
upper 60s SW.
.LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014
An extended period of tranquil fall weather is on the way, with no
precip chances in the forecast through Sunday. The middle of the
week will feature shortwave ridging aloft, but Canadian surface high
pressure will be drawn southward behind a slowly departing East
Coast low. This will keep out temps below normal for most of the
work week. Coldest mornings will be Thursday with the surface ridge
axis directly over the Ohio Valley, and Friday as favorable
radiational cooling conditions persist. More sheltered/rural
locations could see lows in the 30s, and frost can`t be ruled out
either.
By the weekend, the next upper shortwave trof will weaken as it
heads into the Great Lakes, and with precipitable water values
barely touching climo, the only sensible weather impact will likely
be an increase in cloud cover. Temps will recover to near or above
climo as upper ridge starts to build from the SW, but that could be
limited by N-NE low-level flow depending on how strongly the surface
high is reinforced by the weakening upper impulse. Current forecast
is more in line with the raw model consensus, but if the upper
ridging wins out extended GFS MOS highs in the 70s could be the way
to go.
&&
.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 648 AM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014
Expecting VFR conditions to prevail outside of any rain showers,
however SDF/LEX will have the best shot at some brief MVFR
visibilities in moderate rain this morning. A fairly solid line of
showers has developed over southern Indiana ahead of an upper level
disturbance and will slide across SDF/LEX through the morning. Best
timing at SDF should be between 8 and 10 AM EDT, and the best timing
at LEX should be between 9 AM and 1 PM EDT. Ceilings are expected to
remain VFR.
BWG will have a shot an an isolated shower or two, however coverage
should be less so will only mention VCSH for now. Otherwise, expect
steady SW winds up between 10 and 15 mph later this afternoon.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Update.........EER/BJS
Short Term.....BJS
Long Term......RAS
Aviation.......BJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
929 AM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014
...Forecast Update...
Issued at 928 AM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014
The narrow line of showers continues to slowly move east across the
area. In addition, a few showers have popped up both north and south
of this line. In general the forecast is in pretty good shape. The
pop grids were updated to include a slight chance for precipitation
across south central KY where the forecast was dry before. Also
brought grids in line with current observations.
Issued at 615 AM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014
A narrow line of showers has developed over southern Indiana ahead
of an approaching PV anomaly from the NW. These light showers will
continue to push east across the northern half of the CWA through
the morning. Have increased chances to likely (60-70% coverage)
along a narrow axis in southern IN and northern KY to account. The
highest pops will roughly be along and several miles either side of
the I-64 corridor. Areas north and south of this region can expect
isolated to widely scattered light rain showers through the morning
and early afternoon.
Refer to the 20/00z or 20/06z NAM or recent runs of the HRRR as they
appear to have a good handle on what will transpire with light rain
today.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014
Things are quiet across the CWA at this hour, with only some mid and
upper level sky cover in place, and temperatures running in the low
and mid 40s. Will watch chances for isolated to scattered rain
showers increase over the next few hours ahead of a PV anomaly
diving in from the upper Midwest. Light rain showers have already
begun to organize from NW Indiana through southern Missouri ahead of
this feature, and expect a cluster of these showers to mainly focus
over southern Indiana and northern Kentucky later this morning. Less
impressed with measurable rain chances across south central KY where
there will be less moisture and more displaced from the best
forcing. Can`t rule out an isolated sprinkle, but think measurable
rain will be hard to come by. Will see temperatures warm to the mid
and upper 60s today on a steady SW wind, despite the lack of strong
solar insolation.
Will keep an chances for an isolated shower in across the far NE
into the late evening hours where deep moisture will be most
impressive. Things should dry out after Midnight. Will see milder
lows tonight under cloud cover and a somewhat mixy near-surface
environment.
Will have one more shot at isolated light rain showers across our NE
on Tuesday morning as another wave dives into the mean trough over
the eastern CONUS, and combines with the lingering low level
moisture. Most spots will stay dry this day with a fairly sizable
temperature gradient across the CWA. Look for upper 50s NE to mid to
upper 60s SW.
.LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014
An extended period of tranquil fall weather is on the way, with no
precip chances in the forecast through Sunday. The middle of the
week will feature shortwave ridging aloft, but Canadian surface high
pressure will be drawn southward behind a slowly departing East
Coast low. This will keep out temps below normal for most of the
work week. Coldest mornings will be Thursday with the surface ridge
axis directly over the Ohio Valley, and Friday as favorable
radiational cooling conditions persist. More sheltered/rural
locations could see lows in the 30s, and frost can`t be ruled out
either.
By the weekend, the next upper shortwave trof will weaken as it
heads into the Great Lakes, and with precipitable water values
barely touching climo, the only sensible weather impact will likely
be an increase in cloud cover. Temps will recover to near or above
climo as upper ridge starts to build from the SW, but that could be
limited by N-NE low-level flow depending on how strongly the surface
high is reinforced by the weakening upper impulse. Current forecast
is more in line with the raw model consensus, but if the upper
ridging wins out extended GFS MOS highs in the 70s could be the way
to go.
&&
.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 648 AM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014
Expecting VFR conditions to prevail outside of any rain showers,
however SDF/LEX will have the best shot at some brief MVFR
visibilities in moderate rain this morning. A fairly solid line of
showers has developed over southern Indiana ahead of an upper level
disturbance and will slide across SDF/LEX through the morning. Best
timing at SDF should be between 8 and 10 AM EDT, and the best timing
at LEX should be between 9 AM and 1 PM EDT. Ceilings are expected to
remain VFR.
BWG will have a shot an an isolated shower or two, however coverage
should be less so will only mention VCSH for now. Otherwise, expect
steady SW winds up between 10 and 15 mph later this afternoon.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Update.........EER/BJS
Short Term.....BJS
Long Term......RAS
Aviation.......BJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
648 AM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
...Forecast Update...
Issued at 615 AM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014
A narrow line of showers has developed over southern Indiana ahead
of an approaching PV anomaly from the NW. These light showers will
continue to push east across the northern half of the CWA through
the morning. Have increased chances to likely (60-70% coverage)
along a narrow axis in southern IN and northern KY to account. The
highest pops will roughly be along and several miles either side of
the I-64 corridor. Areas north and south of this region can expect
isolated to widely scattered light rain showers through the morning
and early afternoon.
Refer to the 20/00z or 20/06z NAM or recent runs of the HRRR as they
appear to have a good handle on what will transpire with light rain
today.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014
Things are quiet across the CWA at this hour, with only some mid and
upper level sky cover in place, and temperatures running in the low
and mid 40s. Will watch chances for isolated to scattered rain
showers increase over the next few hours ahead of a PV anomaly
diving in from the upper Midwest. Light rain showers have already
begun to organize from NW Indiana through southern Missouri ahead of
this feature, and expect a cluster of these showers to mainly focus
over southern Indiana and northern Kentucky later this morning. Less
impressed with measurable rain chances across south central KY where
there will be less moisture and more displaced from the best
forcing. Can`t rule out an isolated sprinkle, but think measurable
rain will be hard to come by. Will see temperatures warm to the mid
and upper 60s today on a steady SW wind, despite the lack of strong
solar insolation.
Will keep an chances for an isolated shower in across the far NE
into the late evening hours where deep moisture will be most
impressive. Things should dry out after Midnight. Will see milder
lows tonight under cloud cover and a somewhat mixy near-surface
environment.
Will have one more shot at isolated light rain showers across our NE
on Tuesday morning as another wave dives into the mean trough over
the eastern CONUS, and combines with the lingering low level
moisture. Most spots will stay dry this day with a fairly sizable
temperature gradient across the CWA. Look for upper 50s NE to mid to
upper 60s SW.
.LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014
An extended period of tranquil fall weather is on the way, with no
precip chances in the forecast through Sunday. The middle of the
week will feature shortwave ridging aloft, but Canadian surface high
pressure will be drawn southward behind a slowly departing East
Coast low. This will keep out temps below normal for most of the
work week. Coldest mornings will be Thursday with the surface ridge
axis directly over the Ohio Valley, and Friday as favorable
radiational cooling conditions persist. More sheltered/rural
locations could see lows in the 30s, and frost can`t be ruled out
either.
By the weekend, the next upper shortwave trof will weaken as it
heads into the Great Lakes, and with precipitable water values
barely touching climo, the only sensible weather impact will likely
be an increase in cloud cover. Temps will recover to near or above
climo as upper ridge starts to build from the SW, but that could be
limited by N-NE low-level flow depending on how strongly the surface
high is reinforced by the weakening upper impulse. Current forecast
is more in line with the raw model consensus, but if the upper
ridging wins out extended GFS MOS highs in the 70s could be the way
to go.
&&
.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 648 AM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014
Expecting VFR conditions to prevail outside of any rain showers,
however SDF/LEX will have the best shot at some brief MVFR
visibilities in moderate rain this morning. A fairly solid line of
showers has developed over southern Indiana ahead of an upper level
disturbance and will slide across SDF/LEX through the morning. Best
timing at SDF should be between 8 and 10 AM EDT, and the best timing
at LEX should be between 9 AM and 1 PM EDT. Ceilings are expected to
remain VFR.
BWG will have a shot an an isolated shower or two, however coverage
should be less so will only mention VCSH for now. Otherwise, expect
steady SW winds up between 10 and 15 mph later this afternoon.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Update.........BJS
Short Term.....BJS
Long Term......RAS
Aviation.......BJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
616 AM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014
...Forecast Update...
Issued at 615 AM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014
A narrow line of showers has developed over southern Indiana ahead
of an approaching PV anomaly from the NW. These light showers will
continue to push east across the northern half of the CWA through
the morning. Have increased chances to likely (60-70% coverage)
along a narrow axis in southern IN and northern KY to account. The
highest pops will roughly be along and several miles either side of
the I-64 corridor. Areas north and south of this region can expect
isolated to widely scattered light rain showers through the morning
and early afternoon.
Refer to the 20/00z or 20/06z NAM or recent runs of the HRRR as they
appear to have a good handle on what will transpire with light rain
today.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014
Things are quiet across the CWA at this hour, with only some mid and
upper level sky cover in place, and temperatures running in the low
and mid 40s. Will watch chances for isolated to scattered rain
showers increase over the next few hours ahead of a PV anomaly
diving in from the upper Midwest. Light rain showers have already
begun to organize from NW Indiana through southern Missouri ahead of
this feature, and expect a cluster of these showers to mainly focus
over southern Indiana and northern Kentucky later this morning. Less
impressed with measurable rain chances across south central KY where
there will be less moisture and more displaced from the best
forcing. Can`t rule out an isolated sprinkle, but think measurable
rain will be hard to come by. Will see temperatures warm to the mid
and upper 60s today on a steady SW wind, despite the lack of strong
solar insolation.
Will keep an chances for an isolated shower in across the far NE
into the late evening hours where deep moisture will be most
impressive. Things should dry out after Midnight. Will see milder
lows tonight under cloud cover and a somewhat mixy near-surface
environment.
Will have one more shot at isolated light rain showers across our NE
on Tuesday morning as another wave dives into the mean trough over
the eastern CONUS, and combines with the lingering low level
moisture. Most spots will stay dry this day with a fairly sizable
temperature gradient across the CWA. Look for upper 50s NE to mid to
upper 60s SW.
.LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014
An extended period of tranquil fall weather is on the way, with no
precip chances in the forecast through Sunday. The middle of the
week will feature shortwave ridging aloft, but Canadian surface high
pressure will be drawn southward behind a slowly departing East
Coast low. This will keep out temps below normal for most of the
work week. Coldest mornings will be Thursday with the surface ridge
axis directly over the Ohio Valley, and Friday as favorable
radiational cooling conditions persist. More sheltered/rural
locations could see lows in the 30s, and frost can`t be ruled out
either.
By the weekend, the next upper shortwave trof will weaken as it
heads into the Great Lakes, and with precipitable water values
barely touching climo, the only sensible weather impact will likely
be an increase in cloud cover. Temps will recover to near or above
climo as upper ridge starts to build from the SW, but that could be
limited by N-NE low-level flow depending on how strongly the surface
high is reinforced by the weakening upper impulse. Current forecast
is more in line with the raw model consensus, but if the upper
ridging wins out extended GFS MOS highs in the 70s could be the way
to go.
&&
.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 105 AM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014
VFR conditions will prevail at the TAF sites for much of the
overnight, however will focus on an incoming disturbance toward the
later morning hours. Ceilings are currently broken above 10 K feet,
however expect ceilings to gradually lower toward dawn, but remain
VFR. Some light rain showers will be possible at SDF/LEX ahead of a
mid level disturbance with the best timing between 7 and 9 AM EDT at
SDF, and between 9 and 11 AM EDT at LEX. Think these showers will be
light enough that visibilities should stay above 6 SM, however
cannot rule out a brief drop into MVFR.
Otherwise, surface winds will be light out of the south, gradually
increasing in strength and veering to SW through the day. Low and
mid level clouds will hang around this evening, however expect just
above the MVFR/VFR threshold at this time.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Update.........BJS
Short Term.....BJS
Long Term......RAS
Aviation.......BJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
626 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER CHANCES WILL RESUME AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
UNTIL UPPER LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD LATER THIS WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TWEAKED ERLY MRNG HRLY GRIDS BASED ON LATEST OBS/TRENDS FOR THE
PREDAWN UPDT.
PREVIOUS DISC...WARM ADVCTN AND THICKENING CLD COVER WL PRECLUDE
MUCH MORE OF A TEMP DROP THIS MRNG...WITH MANY READINGS FM ALNG
AND N OF I 70 RISING. THE FROST ADVISORY FOR THE CNTIES
SURROUNDING MORGANTOWN WAS THUS DROPPED EARLY AS WIDESPREAD FROST
IS NOT ANTICIPATED WITH EXTENSIVE CIRROSTRATUS SHIELD/ENCROACHING
ALTOSTRATUS AND GENL TEMPS IN THE UPR 30S IN THE ADVISORY AREA
EXPECTED TO BEGIN RISING BEFORE SUNRISE.
OTHERWISE...THE APCHG SHRTWV THAT IS SPEWING UPR AND MID LVL CLDINESS
OVR THE REGION...IS STILL EXPECTED TO GENERATE SHWRS OVR BY EVE.
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS FOR LGT PCPN HAVE BEEN CONTINUED...BUT
OVRALL NMBRS WERE TEMPERED AND TIMING FURTHER ADJUSTED FOR A
LATER START GIVEN THE DEPTH OF THE DRY LYR ON THE EVE SNDING AS
WELL AS THE LATEST MDL TRENDS.
MRNG TEMPS WERE FORECAST USING HRLY LAMP GUIDANCE AND RAP NMBRS...WHILE
COOL DAYTIME HIGHS WERE TWEAKED USING GFS MOSGUIDE TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A JET STREAK MOVG THROUGH THE WRN FLANK OF THE EWD SHIFT UPR TROF
IS PROGGED TO CARVE A CUTOFF LOW OVR THE UPR OH VALLEY REGION BY
LATE TUESDAY. COOLING MID LVLS WITH THAT SYSTEM WL LOWER CONVECTIVE
THRESHOLDS AND SPPRT SHWR ACTIVITY THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH PARTICULAR
EMPHASIS OVR UPSLOPE REGIONS TO THE N AND E OF PITTSBURGH.
BY THURSDAY...MDL WORLD PROJECTS SUFFICIENT COASTAL DVLPMNT/DEEPENING
TO DIMINISH POPS OVR THE IMMEDIATE AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IN SHRTWV/VORT
PROJECTIONS THROUGH THE WRN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM IS MINIMAL...SO
HAVE MAINTAINED AT LEAST SLGT POPS OVR THE RIDGES THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EWD PROGRESS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPR LOW WITH EXPANDING RIDGE OVR
THE CNTRL CONUS SHOULD ENSURE A GENLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL CLOSE
TO THE WEEK. TWEAKED WPC NMBRS WERE USED TO REPRESENT THE LONG TERM
PD.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDS ARE EXPD WITH INCRG AC THRU THIS AFTN AHD OF AN APCHG
SHRTWV. THIS SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED CDFNT IS EXPD TO BRING MVFR
CONDS AND INCRG SHWR CHCS THIS EVE AND OVRNGT. FKL/DUJ COULD ALSO
SEE IFR CIGS LT TNGT AS LLVL MOISTURE POOLS.
.AVIATION /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERIODIC RSTRNS ARE PSBL THRU MID WK AS AN UPR LOW DRIFTS ACRS THE
RGN.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
15/07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1048 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014
A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE SYSTEM MOVES
OUT BY TUESDAY NIGHT ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. THAT WILL ALLOW FOR AN EXTENDED
PERIOD MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SLOWLY WARMING TEMPERATURES.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014
MODIFIED POPS TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AS UPPER TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH. ALSO ADDED SOME DRIZZLE THIS AFTERNOON AS STRATOCU
PUSHES SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE CWA. RH PROFILES SHOW SOME LIFT IN
THE CLOUD LAYER AND THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 752 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014
I ADDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR FORECAST NEAR AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 94 FOR THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATEST RUN
OF THE RAP13 SHOWS VERTICAL TOTAL ARE AROUND 30C NEAR THE CONVECTION
CROSSING SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AT 735 AM THIS MORNING. OUR TOTAL
LIGHTNING TRACKER IS SHOWING A HIGH FREQUENCY OF IN- CLOUD
LIGHTING WITH THESE STORMS (6-10 PER MINUTES). RAP SOUNDING IN
FRONT OF THE CONVECTION (UPPER WAVE ) SHOW 300 TO 400 J/KG OF
CAPE. THE LATEST SPC SREF 3 HOUR THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITY SHOWS THE
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS GOES ALONG WITH THIS IDEA TOO. SO ALL
OF THIS TELLS ME THE LINE OF SHOWERS WILL KEPT MOVING EAST ACROSS
OUR SOUTHERN CWA THIS MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014
THE WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION IS ALMOST OUT OF THE AREA SO THAT
WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE FOR FORECAST TODAY. THE MAIN ISSUE FOR TODAY
IS THE OUTSIDE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON EAST OF
GRAND RAPIDS. ONCE THAT IS DONE WE DO GET INTO ANOTHER COLD POOL
OF AIR THAT TYPICALLY LEADS TO LAKE EFFECT SHOWER WHICH WOULD
OCCUR FROM THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
WHAT BRINGS THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER OUR SE CWA LATE THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IS THE 850 THERMAL RIDGE IS
UNDER THE 500 MB COLD POOL. SO THAT RESULTS IN VERTICAL TOTALS
NEAR 28C. THE 850 MB LI FALLS TO NEAR -1C OVER THE I-69 AREA
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON WHILE THIS IS HAPPENING. WE ALSO HAVE
THE EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET COMING INTO PLAY AT THIS TIME TO
HELP THE CAUSE. HOWEVER I DID NOT GO FOR THIS BECAUSE WHEN I
ACTUALLY LOOKED AT MODEL SOUNDINGS (RAP AND NAM) THERE IS AN
INVERSION NEAR 850 MB THAT WILL HARD TO OVERCOME. EVEN IF THAT CAN
BE OVERCOME THE CAPE IS VERY NARROW. SO MY SPIN WAS TO GO WITH
CHANCE POP FOR SHOWERS AND CALL THAT GOOD.
THE NEXT ISSUE IS LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS ONCE WE GET INTO THE 850
COLD POOL OF AIR TONIGHT. FOR A SHORT TIME... 6 PM TILL
MIDNIGHT... WE HAVE A MOIST LAYER TO NEAR 10000 FT WITH NORTH
WINDS BELOW THE INVERSION. THAT SHOULD RESULT OF IN LAKE EFFECT
SHOWERS OVER THE LAKE (NORTH WINDS) AND MAYBE TOUCHING THE POINTS
AND EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGAN AND VAN BUREN COUNTIES. THAT DOES NOT
LAST LONG... WINDS BECOME NORTH NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND PUSH
THAT SHOWERS OFF SHORE. BY 8 AM TUESDAY THE UPPER JET PASSES OVER
AHEAD AN INVERSION HEIGHTS CRASH TO NEAR 4000 FT AGL. SO WHAT EVER
THREAT THERE IS FOR SHOWERS QUICKLY ENDS.
WITH THE UPPER JET TO OUR EAST AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN I EXPECT CLEARING SKIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THUS ANOTHER
BELOW FREEZING NIGHT EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRING SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS FOR WEDNESDAY DURING THE DAY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AND BRING FAIR AND DRY WX. A CONSENSUS
OF LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT A MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THIS
WEAKENING SYSTEM SHOULD COME THROUGH DRY.
DRY AND MILD WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WAA. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL COME
THROUGH SATURDAY BUT THIS SYSTEM IS ALSO LACKING IN MOISTURE AND
SHOULD COME THROUGH DRY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 752 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014
CURRENTLY THE THERMAL RIDGE AT LOW LEVELS IS CROSSING SOUTHWEST
LOWER MICHIGAN. THAT IS HELPING TO KEEP THE CEILINGS WELL ABOVE
MVFR LEVELS THIS MORNING. HOWEVER ONCE THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT
COMES THROUGH DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON I WOULD EXPECT
EXTENSIVE MVFR CIGS TO SPREAD OVER ALL OF OUR TAF SITES. THOSE
LOWER CEILING WILL LAST INTO THE DAY TIME HOURS OF TUESDAY.
MEANWHILE...I PUT VCTS IN THE I-94 TAFS FOR THE CONVECTION THAT WILL
BE CROSSING THE AREA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE ONLY TAF SITE I
ACTUALLY PUT SHOWERS IN THE TAF MKG. THAT WAS FOR EARLY THIS
EVENING FOR NORTH WIND LAKE EFFECT BETWEEN 01Z AND 04Z. AFTER THAT
THE WINDS TURN MORE NORTH NORTHEAST AND THAT WILL PUSH THE SHOWERS
OFF SHORE.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014
WITH THE CORE OF WINDS TO 40 KNOTS MOVING EAST OF THE AREA BY
SUNRISE... WINDS WILL DECREASE FOR A TIME TILL THE COLD AIR POOL
AT MID LEVEL MOVES IN BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THEN I WOULD EXPECT
NORTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. SO I WILL
CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS IS AND CALL THAT GOOD.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS COMING WEEKEND (ECMWF AND GFS ) SO RIVER LEVELS SHOULD SLOWLY
FALL OVER TIME.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
UPDATE...93
SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...WDM
MARINE...WDM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
753 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE/AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014
A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE SYSTEM MOVES
OUT BY TUESDAY NIGHT ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. THAT WILL ALLOW FOR AN EXTENDED
PERIOD MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SLOWLY WARMING TEMPERATURES.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 752 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014
I ADDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR FORECAST NEAR AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 94 FOR THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATEST RUN
OF THE RAP13 SHOWS VERTICAL TOTAL ARE AROUND 30C NEAR THE CONVECTION
CROSSING SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AT 735 AM THIS MORNING. OUR TOTAL
LIGHTNING TRACKER IS SHOWING A HIGH FREQUENCY OF IN- CLOUD
LIGHTING WITH THESE STORMS (6-10 PER MINUTES). RAP SOUNDING IN
FRONT OF THE CONVECTION (UPPER WAVE ) SHOW 300 TO 400 J/KG OF
CAPE. THE LATEST SPC SREF 3 HOUR THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITY SHOWS THE
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS GOES ALONG WITH THIS IDEA TOO. SO ALL
OF THIS TELLS ME THE LINE OF SHOWERS WILL KEPT MOVING EAST ACROSS
OUR SOUTHERN CWA THIS MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014
THE WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION IS ALMOST OUT OF THE AREA SO THAT
WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE FOR FORECAST TODAY. THE MAIN ISSUE FOR TODAY
IS THE OUTSIDE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON EAST OF
GRAND RAPIDS. ONCE THAT IS DONE WE DO GET INTO ANOTHER COLD POOL
OF AIR THAT TYPICALLY LEADS TO LAKE EFFECT SHOWER WHICH WOULD
OCCUR FROM THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
WHAT BRINGS THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER OUR SE CWA LATE THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IS THE 850 THERMAL RIDGE IS
UNDER THE 500 MB COLD POOL. SO THAT RESULTS IN VERTICAL TOTALS
NEAR 28C. THE 850 MB LI FALLS TO NEAR -1C OVER THE I-69 AREA
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON WHILE THIS IS HAPPENING. WE ALSO HAVE
THE EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET COMING INTO PLAY AT THIS TIME TO
HELP THE CAUSE. HOWEVER I DID NOT GO FOR THIS BECAUSE WHEN I
ACTUALLY LOOKED AT MODEL SOUNDINGS (RAP AND NAM) THERE IS AN
INVERSION NEAR 850 MB THAT WILL HARD TO OVERCOME. EVEN IF THAT CAN
BE OVERCOME THE CAPE IS VERY NARROW. SO MY SPIN WAS TO GO WITH
CHANCE POP FOR SHOWERS AND CALL THAT GOOD.
THE NEXT ISSUE IS LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS ONCE WE GET INTO THE 850
COLD POOL OF AIR TONIGHT. FOR A SHORT TIME... 6 PM TILL
MIDNIGHT... WE HAVE A MOIST LAYER TO NEAR 10000 FT WITH NORTH
WINDS BELOW THE INVERSION. THAT SHOULD RESULT OF IN LAKE EFFECT
SHOWERS OVER THE LAKE (NORTH WINDS) AND MAYBE TOUCHING THE POINTS
AND EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGAN AND VAN BUREN COUNTIES. THAT DOES NOT
LAST LONG... WINDS BECOME NORTH NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND PUSH
THAT SHOWERS OFF SHORE. BY 8 AM TUESDAY THE UPPER JET PASSES OVER
AHEAD AN INVERSION HEIGHTS CRASH TO NEAR 4000 FT AGL. SO WHAT EVER
THREAT THERE IS FOR SHOWERS QUICKLY ENDS.
WITH THE UPPER JET TO OUR EAST AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN I EXPECT CLEARING SKIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THUS ANOTHER
BELOW FREEZING NIGHT EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRING SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS FOR WEDNESDAY DURING THE DAY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AND BRING FAIR AND DRY WX. A CONSENSUS
OF LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT A MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THIS
WEAKENING SYSTEM SHOULD COME THROUGH DRY.
DRY AND MILD WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WAA. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL COME
THROUGH SATURDAY BUT THIS SYSTEM IS ALSO LACKING IN MOISTURE AND
SHOULD COME THROUGH DRY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 752 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014
CURRENTLY THE THERMAL RIDGE AT LOW LEVELS IS CROSSING SOUTHWEST
LOWER MICHIGAN. THAT IS HELPING TO KEEP THE CEILINGS WELL ABOVE
MVFR LEVELS THIS MORNING. HOWEVER ONCE THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT
COMES THROUGH DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON I WOULD EXPECT
EXTENSIVE MVFR CIGS TO SPREAD OVER ALL OF OUR TAF SITES. THOSE
LOWER CEILING WILL LAST INTO THE DAY TIME HOURS OF TUESDAY.
MEANWHILE...I PUT VCTS IN THE I-94 TAFS FOR THE CONVECTION THAT WILL
BE CROSSING THE AREA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE ONLY TAF SITE I
ACTUALLY PUT SHOWERS IN THE TAF MKG. THAT WAS FOR EARLY THIS
EVENING FOR NORTH WIND LAKE EFFECT BETWEEN 01Z AND 04Z. AFTER THAT
THE WINDS TURN MORE NORTH NORTHEAST AND THAT WILL PUSH THE SHOWERS
OFF SHORE.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014
WITH THE CORE OF WINDS TO 40 KNOTS MOVING EAST OF THE AREA BY
SUNRISE... WINDS WILL DECREASE FOR A TIME TILL THE COLD AIR POOL
AT MID LEVEL MOVES IN BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THEN I WOULD EXPECT
NORTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. SO I WILL
CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS IS AND CALL THAT GOOD.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS COMING WEEKEND (ECMWF AND GFS ) SO RIVER LEVELS SHOULD SLOWLY
FALL OVER TIME.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WDM
SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...WDM
MARINE...WDM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
251 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COOLING TREND WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS LIKELY THIS EVENING ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING AND TEMPERATURES WARMING TO
ABOVE NORMAL BY FRIDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
THE LEADING EDGE OF A BAND OF CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WAS JUST REACHING THE WESTERN EDGE OF
MERCED COUNTY AS AS 230 PM. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS NORCAL
HAVE BEEN LESS THAN 15 KTS. THE HRRR HAD BEEN PROGGING GUSTS TO
NEARLY 30 KTS THIS EVENING IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. THE LATEST RUN HAS BACKED OFF TO GUSTS OF ONLY
AROUND 25 KTS THOUGH...AND KEEPS ANY GUSTS ABOVE 20 KTS NORTH OF
KERN COUNTY. THERE IS STILL A CONCERN THAT ANY SUBSTANTIAL
INCREASE IN WINDS THIS EVENING COULD PRODUCE BLOWING DUST ALONG
THE INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE POSSIBILITY
VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.
HAVE LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN PLACE NEAR YOSEMITE TONIGHT AS
MOST OF THE ENERGY FROM THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTH OF OUR AREA AND
INTO NEVADA. HAVE ALSO KEPT THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT DRIZZLE IN
THE EXTREME SOUTHERN END OF THE VALLEY AND THE NORTH FACING SLOPES FROM
MOUNT PINOS TO TEJON RANCH DUE TO UPSLOPE CLOUDINESS LATE TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING.
LATEST GUIDANCE HAS ALSO BACKED OFF A LITTLE ON THE AMOUNT OF POST
FRONTAL COOLING FOR TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE NOW EXPECTED TO ONLY
FALL ABOUT 3 TO 5 DEG F...WITH MOST OF THE VALLEY IN THE MID 70S
ON TUESDAY.
WEAK RIDGING AFTER THIS SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO A WARMING TREND ACROSS
THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IS
THEN PROGGED BY THE MODEL ENSEMBLES TO MOVE ACROSS CALIFORNIA ON
SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE IN IT BRINGING PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA
REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...
WIND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY FROM
00Z TO 12Z TUESDAY. GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS ARE LIKELY AROUND THE KERN
COUNTY MOUNTAIN PASSES THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY. AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS
ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE WEST SLOPES OF THE SIERRA AND THE NORTH
FACING SLOPES OF THE TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS FROM 06Z TO 18Z TUESDAY.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.
&&
.CERTAINTY...
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS LOW.
THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORDS
SITE DATE HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR
KFAT 10-20 94:1927 56:1941 59:2012 35:1949
KFAT 10-21 93:2003 58:1941 60:1992 34:1949
KFAT 10-22 92:1948 63:2012 64:1982 35:1961
KBFL 10-20 97:1927 60:1910 63:1978 33:1908
KBFL 10-21 94:2003 62:2004 65:1976 32:1906
KBFL 10-22 95:1901 63:1985 65:1982 37:1920
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...MENDENHALL
AVN/FW...DCH
PREV DISCUSSION...99
SYNOPSIS...WP
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
1057 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1057 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014
HAVE INCREASED THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
HIGH TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON AFTER SEEING ENHANCED MOISTURE IN THE
WATER VAPOR LOOP...CUMULUS ALREADY BUILDING...AND MONITORING THE
HRRR AND RUC TRENDS FOR PRECIPITATION. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE WE
COULD SEE SOME MOVING EAST OVER THE HIGHER FOOTHILLS...BUT BELIEVE
THIS WILL END ONLY IN GUSTY WINDS. HAVE ALSO INCREASED THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS TOMORROW SLIGHTLY AS MODEL AGREEMENT CONTINUES TO
IMPROVE AND SEEING MOISTURE MOVE UP FROM THE
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 344 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014
A WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE CWA WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS JUST TO THE EAST OF COLORADO AND A SLOW MOVING
CLOSED LOW OVER SERN AZ/SWRN NEW MX. SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE NORTHWARD INTO COLORADO THIS
AFTN. IN THE MOUNTAINS...THE MDLS CONTINUE TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT
QPF THIS AFTN. SYNTHETIC SATELLITE SUGGESTS SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY
IN THE AFTN/ERLY EVENING. FOR THIS REASON WILL KEEP SLGT CHC POPS
THERE...BEST CHC WILL LIKELY BE SOUTH OF I-70. ACROSS THE URBAN
CORRIDOR AND ADJACENT PLAINS...IT WILL AGAIN BE UNSEASONABLY WARM
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S...BREEZY EAST OF INTERSTATE 25 WITH
SSELY WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH THIS AFTN. THE MDLS DO HINT AT SOME
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR SOME POTENTIAL STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT EAST
AND SOUTH OF LIMON LATE TONIGHT. WL LET THE DAY SHIFT MAKE THE
FINAL DETERMINATION ON THIS BEFORE ADDRESSING IT IN THE GRIDS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM NORTHERN NEVADA EARLY TUESDAY
INTO MONTANA TUESDAY NIGHT. IT WILL BE MILD TUESDAY AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO. IT WILL ALSO
BE BREEZY OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT TO SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE SHOWERS WILL MOVE ONTO THE FRONT RANGE AND
EASTERN PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVING BEEN TRENDING NORTH ON
THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. SO WITH THE TRACK BEING WELL NORTH OF
COLORADO...JUST EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR THE MOST PART. MAY BE
SOME OROGRAPHIC LIFT IN THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
SNOW LEVEL WILL FALL TO AROUND 9000 FEET WITH A FEW INCHES POSSIBLE
OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS AND PASSES. THIS IS WHERE THE HIGHEST POPS
WILL BE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS COLORADO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS GOING WEDNESDAY. LOWERED POPS INTO
THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE FOR WEDNESDAY FOR MOST OF EASTERN COLORADO
DUE TO THE SYSTEM BEING FARTHER AWAY FROM COLORADO. HIGHS WILL RUN
10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER ON WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL END QUICK
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN.
FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REBUILD OVER
THE REGION BY FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SOME THURSDAY...BUT THE
WARMEST DAYS LOOK TO BE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES. HIGHS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
WITH READINGS IN THE 70S. NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME
LATE SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS IS WHEN THE NEXT PACIFIC
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1057 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014
VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. SLY WINDS WILL BECOME SSELY
THIS AFTN/EVNG...THEN BACK TO SSWLY AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. COULD SEE
SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS AT KDEN AND KAPA IN THE 21-03Z
WINDOW...WHERE KBJC WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHTER. WINDS WILL LIKELY
STILL BE SLY TUESDAY...BUT LIGHTER SPEEDS. SYNTHETIC SATELLITE
HINTS AT SOME STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT TOWARDS 12Z TUESDAY
MORNING...BUT IT SHOULD STAY WELL TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
KDEN.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KRIEDERMAN
SHORT TERM...COOPER
LONG TERM...MEIER
AVIATION...KRIEDERMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
700 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH LINGERING SHOWERS FRIDAY AS THE STORM SLOWLY
PULLS AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND. MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
7 PM UPDATE...
MID LEVEL CLOUDS SPREADING INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING
ON SCHEDULE. 18Z MODELS AND LATEST HIGH-RES GUIDANCE SUPPORTS
FORECAST OF THICKENING CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WELL
AFTER MIDNIGHT. STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO WHICH AREAS ARE FAVORED
WITH HRRR SHOWING NARROW BAND ACROSS MA/NH AND 18Z NAM MORE
FOCUSED ON RI/SE MA CLOSER TO SURFACE TROUGH.
FORECAST LOWS IN 40S LOOK GOOD AND NO CHANGES MADE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
***NARROW AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY ACROSS EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND***
TUESDAY...
INTERESTING SETUP WITH A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR WEST AND A
SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE INTERACTION OF THE
COLD POOL ALOFT...A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET AND AXIS OF SURFACE
CONVERGENCE MAY LEAD TO SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. INTERESTING THAT THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
ARE SHOWING A NARROW AXIS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN SOMEWHERE NEAR
THE I-95 CORRIDOR. EXACT LOCATION REMAINS UNCERTAIN AND IT COULD
REMAIN OFFSHORE...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH. WE MAY BE DEALING WITH
LOCALIZED NUISANCE POOR DRAINAGE STREET FLOODING IN THIS REGION IF
THIS NARROW AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPS.
FURTHER TO THE WEST ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT BEST FORCING/MOISTURE WILL BE ACROSS
OUR EASTERN ZONES...SO ACTIVITY SHOULD NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD.
AS FOR CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...500 MB TEMPS WILL BE BELOW -20C AND
RESULT IN ELEVATED INSTABILITY. MODEL SOUNDINGS HAVE BEEN
INDICATING MU CAPES ON THE ORDER OF 500 J/KG. HAVE INCLUDED ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST ACROSS SOME OF THE REGION. WHILE WE
CAN/T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION...BEST SHOT WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.
HIGH TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S ACROSS THE
REGION.
TUESDAY NIGHT...
APPEARS THAT THE DEEPER MOISTURE/LIFT TEMPORARILY SHIFTS TO THE
NORTH OF OUR REGION AND INTO NORTHER NEW ENGLAND.
NONETHELESS...CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND LOW PRESSURE WILL STILL RESULT IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AT TIMES. THE ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY BE MOST
WIDESPREAD ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES...CLOSER TO THE BETTER
DYNAMICS AND FORCING. LOW TEMPS WILL ONLY DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S
AND LOWER 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...
CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY MIGRATES
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY AND INTO THE MARITIMES FRIDAY. SHORTWAVE
FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST RACES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES
THIS WEEK AND CROSSES NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THEN
BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEAST USA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HEIGHT CONTOURS ARE
BELOW NORMAL MUCH OF THE WEEK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER
LOW...THEN RECOVER TO NORMAL LEVELS BY SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS.
THIS PATTERN FAVORS A COOL WET MID AND LATE WEEK...THEN DRY AND
SEASONABLE BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE TYPES
OF WEATHER...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING.
THE DAILIES...
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...COASTAL LOW SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL DOMINATE OUR
WEATHER AS IT MOVES UP THE COAST. LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH AND AN
EAST 50-60 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS COASTAL MAINE AND WRAPPING INTO
NH/VT. THIS MAY BRING ENHANCED ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS SOUTHERN NH
AND NORTHERN MASS...WITH WEAKER LIFT FARTHER SOUTH. BY THURSDAY THE
COLD CORE IS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. SO WEDNESDAY IS A TRANSITION FROM
STRATIFORM TO CONVECTIVE...THURSDAY MAINLY CONVECTIVE. SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY BOTH DAYS TO INDICATE A CHANCE OF THUNDER.
FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST.
COLD CORE STILL CLOSE ENOUGH TO PROVIDE CLOUDS AND SOME INSTABILITY.
SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE A DIMINISHING CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SATURDAY...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH
LATER SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT. THE APPROACH OF THIS FRONT MAY
ACTUALLY BE THE NUDGE THAT GETS THE LAST OF THE COLD POOL CLOUDS OUT
OF OUR AREA. THE FRONT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF CLOUDS. THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS IS LESS DEFINED AND SO WE FEATURE JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN SRN NH AND NRN MASS. TEMPS ALOFT SUPPORT DAYTIME
MAX TEMPS IN THE 60S.
SUNDAY-MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH TEMPS
ALOFT WARMER FROM SUNDAY TO MONDAY. TEMPS ALOFT SUPPORT 60S BOTH
DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT
BUT SHOULD NOT BRING LOWER CONDITIONS.
TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO MAINLY
MVFR THRESHOLDS IN MORNING NEAR COAST...BUT BRIEF IFR CIGS/VSBYS
ARE POSSIBLE. SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED WITH AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO POSSIBLE. BULK OF THE FOCUS SHOULD BE ACROSS
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.
TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LOW END MVFR TO PERHAPS IFR
CONDITIONS DOMINATE IN LOW CLOUDS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND FOG
PATCHES. THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE FOUND ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN ZONES.
KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TONIGHT WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON
TUESDAY. LOW PROBABILITY OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ON TUESDAY.
KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TONIGHT WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON
TUESDAY.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...PROLONGED PERIOD OF MIXED MVFR/IFR...WITH MORE
IFR IN RAIN WEDNESDAY AND MORE MVFR IN SHOWERS THURSDAY. CHANCE OF
THUNDER BOTH DAYS. CHANCE OF 30 KNOT EAST-NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS
WEDNESDAY MORNING ALONG THE OUTER CAPE AND MASSACHUSETTS NORTH SHORE
AREAS.
FRIDAY-SATURDAY...VFR. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS ON
FRIDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN SOUTHERN NH AND EASTERN MASS.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
FURTHER EAST OF THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS. HOWEVER...WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SCA THRESHOLDS.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE WATERS WILL COMBINED WITH A 1030 MB HIGH
OVER EASTERN CANADA. EASTERLY WINDS ON TUESDAY WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT
TO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS.
PRETTY MUCH A LOCK THAT SCA SEAS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS OUR EASTERN AND
PARTICULARLY OUR NORTHERN OUTER-WATERS TUE AFTERNOON INTO TUE NIGHT.
IN FACT...BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY SEAS MAY BE APPROACHING 10 FEET
ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN WATERS ALONG WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS. SCA
HEADLINES POSTED FOR THIS REGION.
WE MAY ALSO SEE SOME 5 FOOT SEAS DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS
TOWARDS 12Z WEDNESDAY...BUT ITS TOO MARGINAL FOR LATE 3RD PERIOD SCA
HEADLINES IN THIS REGION.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...LOW LEVEL EAST-NORTHEAST JET WILL BE FEEDING
INTO THE MAINE MID-COAST WEDNESDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG SURFACE
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF OUR WATERS. WINDS OF 25-30 KNOTS MAY
EXTEND AS FAR SOUTH AS THE MERRIMACK RIVER AND POSSIBLY CAPE ANN.
WINDS DIMINISH AND BECOME VARIABLE THURSDAY AS THE COASTAL LOW MOVES
ACROSS THE WATERS. SEAS WEDNESDAY REACH 5 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS
WITH 8 TO 10 FEET POSSIBLE FROM CAPE ANN TO MERRIMACK RIVER. BY
THURSDAY THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW WILL EXPAND THE AREA OF 8
TO 10 FOOT SEAS ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE EASTERN WATERS AND SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS.
FRIDAY... AS THE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF TOWARD THE
MARITIMES...WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS.
WITH THE SHIFTING OF THE WIND DIRECTION TO OFFSHORE...WE EXPECT SEAS
TO DIMINISH. BUT 5 FOOT SEAS MAY LINGER ON THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH
THE DAY.
SATURDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
FOR ANZ250-254.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
FOR ANZ251.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/FRANK
NEAR TERM...WTB/JWD
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...WTB/FRANK/JWD
MARINE...WTB/FRANK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
330 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
19Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. NORTHERN STREAM FLOW
ARRIVES OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST AND
QUICKLY RIDGES WELL NORTH THROUGH THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. THE FLOW
THEN DIVES BACK TO THE SOUTH INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES
REGION. A POTENT SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW DROPPING OUT OF
THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL ACT TO EVEN FURTHER AMPLIFY THE NORTHERN
STREAM AS IT CARVES OUT A DEEP TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY
TUESDAY MORNING. THE FLOW IS CURRENTLY ZONAL IN NATURE OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST/FLORIDA PENINSULA...BUT WILL BECOME MORE
CYCLONIC IN NATURE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE AMPLIFYING
EASTERN TROUGH TAKES FORM.
THE THE MORNING 20/12Z KTBW SOUNDING PROFILE SHOWED THE COLUMN IS
STILL VERY DRY. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS THROUGH A GOOD CHUNK OF THE
MID-LEVELS ARE RUNNING 35C...TO AS MUCH AS 50C...WHICH IS GOOD
REASON TO WHY THE CUMULUS FIELD IS SHALLOW TODAY. THE CALCULATED PW
VALUE WAS 0.69" WHICH IS GETTING DOWN TOWARD 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
BELOW CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE MIDDLE OF OCTOBER. SO...YA...ITS DRY.
AT THE SURFACE...OUR REGION CURRENTLY RESIDES IN A SYNOPTIC EASTERLY
FLOW BETWEEN A 1020MB RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE CAROLINA
COAST...AND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO/BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS RELAXED SOMEWHAT
THROUGH THE DAY AS THE HIGH CENTER TO OUR NORTH DRIFTS FURTHER EAST
INTO THE ATLANTIC. THE WEAKENING GRADIENT COMBINED WITH STRONG
TERRESTRIAL HEATING HAS ALLOW A FEEBLE SEA-BREEZE CIRCULATION...WITH
MANY COASTAL WINDS NOW FLIPPING ONSHORE.
&&
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...QUIET AND BENIGN FORECAST AND
TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER. A DRY ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN AND VERY LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFTING MECHANISMS KEEPING THE FORECAST
RAIN FREE. WITH PLENTY OF INSOLATION...TEMPERATURES HAVE MIXED OUT
TO THE LOWER/MIDDLE 80S FROM I-4 NORTHWARD AND MIDDLE/UPPER 80S
FURTHER SOUTH. THESE TEMPERATURES REPRESENT HIGHS A FEW DEGREES
"ABOVE NORMAL" FOR OCTOBER 20TH. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SEEN AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST THE REMAINDER OF THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NATURE COAST WHERE NEARSHORE SATELLITE
DERIVED SST VALUES HAVE COOLED INTO THE UPPER 70S.
AS THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS OVER THE EASTERN GULF/FL PENINSULA TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING...WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE A SIGNIFICANT AND DEEP
LAYER SURGE OF MOISTURE RETURN UP INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FL
PENINSULA. DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY WITHIN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
WILL BE WATCHING A DECENT UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK CROSSING THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. THE RESULTING DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT TO
THE SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH A BROAD ZONE OF Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENT WILL BECOME COINCIDENT WITHIN THE REGION OF BEST MOISTURE
RETURN OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA TO SUPPORT SHOWER
CHANCES ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES BY MIDDAY TUESDAY (PERHAPS A BIT
EARLIER). NOW...JUST HOW FAR NORTH THE SHOWERS GET WILL BE
DETERMINED BY THE EXTENT OF MOISTURE RETURN...SINCE THE SYNOPTIC
LIFTING MECHANISMS WILL CERTAINLY EXIST OVER MUCH OF THE REGION.
HOWEVER...ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCES
FOR ADEQUATE COLUMN MOISTURE SHOULD EXIST SOUTH OF A LINE FROM SAY
SARASOTA TO SEBRING...WITH HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES DOWN TOWARD FORT
MYERS AND SOUTHWARD. DID NOT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS FROM
THE INHERITED FORECAST THIS TIME AROUND...OTHER THAN TO RAISE POPS
ANOTHER 10% OR SO DOWN TOWARD CHARLOTTE/LEE COUNTIES. WENT BACK IN
FORTH WITH MENTIONING "LIKELY" RAIN CHANCES THIS FAR SOUTH...BUT
SOME UNCERTAINLY IN THE DEGREE OF MOISTURE RETURN KEPT RAIN CHANCES
CAPPED AT 50%. EVEN IF RAIN CHANCES NEED TO BE RAISED
FURTHER...ACCUMULATIONS STILL LOOK TO BE LIGHT AS NONE OF THE
LIFTING MECHANISMS ARE PARTICULARLY STRONG...JUST SIMPLY ADDITIVE
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RETURNING SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST. ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR...HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST RAIN FREE ONCE AGAIN AS
NO GUIDANCE MEMBER SUGGESTS THE MOISTURE WILL REACH THIS FAR NORTH.
THESE NORTHERN ZONES WILL ALSO SEE THE MOST SUNSHINE/INSOLATION AS
WELL...WITH A DEEPER/THICKER CLOUD CANOPY MOVING ASHORE ALONG THE
SUNCOAST.
&&
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT-MONDAY)...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT
TO THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIODS.
THAT SAID...GIVEN THE RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY ISSUES AND LACK OF
A STRONG MODEL CONSENSUS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...CONFIDENCE
REMAINS BELOW AVERAGE PARTICULARLY IN THE LATTER PORTION OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD.
MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A DEEP UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH CLOSING OFF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH THIS FEATURE THEN LIFTING INTO THE NEW
ENGLAND STATES BY FRIDAY EVENING. AS THIS OCCURS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
WILL GIVE WAY TO WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ON FRIDAY...WITH THIS POSITIVE TILTED
UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AND INTO THE PENINSULA ON
SATURDAY AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS THE ONE THAT THE MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED
CAPTURING OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z
ECMWF HAVE TRENDED VERY CLOSELY TOGETHER WITH THEIR HANDLING OF
THIS FEATURE...LEADING TO HIGHER ALBEIT STILL BELOW AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE.
AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM BAY OF
CAMPECHE INTO THE FLORIDA STRAIGHTS WILL WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. THE MAIN FEATURE THE MODELS ARE LATCHING
ONTO ALONG THIS TROUGH...IS THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE WHICH WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST
GULF OF MEXICO AND NORTHWEST CARRIBEAN BY FRIDAY EVENING. THIS
FEATURE WILL THEN SHIFT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FLORIDA
STRAIGHTS INTO THE VICINITY OF THE BAHAMAS BY SATURDAY EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO SLOWLY BUILD FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AS FOR FORECAST DETAILS...WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE SLIGHT
CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST PRIMARILY SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. IT CERTAINLY DOESN/T APPEAR TO BE A
BIG RAIN MAKER FOR THIS PORTION OF THE STATE AS THE DEEPEST MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAIGHTS. BY SATURDAY NIGHT...THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL HAVE SHIFTED OVER THE BAHAMAS IF THE 00Z
GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS HAVE TRENDED IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION...SO WILL
KEEP THE FORECAST OPTIMISTIC AND RAIN FREE FOR THE END OF THE
WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
CONDITIONS ARE PREVAILING VFR ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON UNDER
A FEW-SCT CUMULUS FIELD. ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON FROM KPGD SOUTH TO KFMY/KRSW..THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS. WINDS DIRECTIONS WILL BECOME VARIABLE AT TIMES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND TRIES TO MIGRATE INLAND.
EXPECTING GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
THE CURRENT MILD WEATHER WILL BE CHANGING OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO
AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST AND BEGIN TO AFFECT SOUTH FLORIDA. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH ON TUESDAY AND NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE STARTING THURSDAY AND
REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE
FLORIDA STRAITS. WINDS AND SEAS HIGHER IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS AND
WINDS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA AT TIMES LATER THIS
WEEK.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN A GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN BETWEEN
LO PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND ANOTHER AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A FEW SHOWERS
WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST FOR ZONES MAINLY SOUTH OF THE I-4
CORRIDOR BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO BE LIGHT. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND NO SIGNIFICANT
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED.
FOG POTENTIAL...SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG IS POSSIBLE TOWARD SUNRISE
THE NEXT TWO MORNING...HOWEVER NO SIGNIFICANT OR WIDESPREAD FOG IS
EXPECTED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 69 85 69 84 / 0 10 10 20
FMY 70 85 71 85 / 10 50 30 40
GIF 67 86 68 83 / 0 10 10 10
SRQ 67 84 68 85 / 0 20 20 20
BKV 59 86 59 84 / 0 10 10 10
SPG 72 84 72 84 / 0 10 10 20
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WX...MROCZKA
LONG TERM...JELSEMA
MARINE...DOUGHERTY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
255 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014
.DISCUSSION...
249 PM CDT
TONIGHT...
UPPER LEVEL WAVE CONTINUES TO ROTATE OVER NORTHEAST ONTARIO...WITH A
A COUPLE WEAK LOBES OF VORTICITY ROTATING AROUND THE BACKEDGE OF
THIS SYSTEM...PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. VISIBLE
IMAGERY SHOWS CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER ACROSS MICHIGAN...STRETCHING
WEST ACROSS THE LAKE AND BEGINNING TO SLIDE INTO FAR NORTHEAST IL.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS WAVE AS IT
PUSHES SOUTHEAST ACROSS WISCONSIN AND PERHAPS INTO FAR NORTHEAST IL
LATE THIS EVE...BEFORE SHIFTING EAST INTO FAR NORTHWEST IN BY
DAYBREAK TUE. OTHERWISE EXPECT CLOUDS TO THICKEN THIS EVE ACROSS THE
CWFA...PERHAPS LESS CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE FAR WEST/SOUTHWEST
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE CLOUD COVER TONIGHT...THIS
SHOULD KEEP TEMPS GENERALLY AROUND 40 TO THE LOW 40S TONIGHT.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
500MB TROUGH AXIS WILL BEGIN TO PUSH EAST...WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGE BEGINNING TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THIS WILL BRING A BROAD SFC RIDGE TO THE AREA STRETCHING FROM
CENTRAL CANADA SOUTH TO THE WESTERN GULF. GUIDANCE THEN CONTINUES TO
MAINTAIN THIS FEATURE THROUGH THUR MORNING...HOWEVER THERE IS A WEAK
WAVE SLIDING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WED NGT THAT IS PROGGED
TO LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE CWFA THUR AFTN/EVE. THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING
SOME LIGHT PRECIP TO THE AREA...BUT AT THIS TIME HAVE ONLY GONE WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS GIVEN THE MOISTURE AVAILABILITY APPEARS TO BE
MINIMAL. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPR 50S TO LOW 60S...WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO FEATURE A TROUGH PERSISTING ALONG THE FAR
SOUTHWEST CONUS...ALLOWING RIDGING TO DOMINATE THE CENTRAL CONUS
LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THE DRY
PATTERN FOR THE REGION. IN ADDITION IT APPEARS TEMPS WILL BE ABLE TO
STEADILY MODERATE...PERHAPS REACHING THE UPR 60S TO ARND 70.
ENSEMBLES DO SUGGEST THAT TOWARDS THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND THE
RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT EAST...WITH A TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE
CENTRAL CONUS AND PERHAPS BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER BACK INTO THE
REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BEACHLER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* NORTHWEST WINDS/GUSTS BRIEFLY BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN BECOMING NORTHEAST WITH SPEEDS AT OR ABOVE 10
KT TUESDAY MORNING.
* DEVELOPING VFR CEILINGS BECOMING MVFR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
* PERIODIC/ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS.
RODRIGUEZ
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES STILL PRESENT ACROSS THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...WHILE NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE.
DEVELOPING DIURNAL STRATOCU WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA OVER THE
NEXT 1-2 HOURS AND ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH
END MVFR CEILINGS...DO THINK THAT VFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL THIS
AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS/GUSTS WILL STEADILY INCREASE OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH A POSSIBILITY REMAINING FOR WINDS TO
BRIEFLY GO MORE NORTHERLY. THIS SHOULD ALSO BE BRIEF WITH A
NORTHWEST WIND LIKELY FAVORED. WITH VFR CEILINGS REMAINING
OVERHEAD TONIGHT...THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH BEFORE
QUICKLY INCREASING ABOVE 10 KT OUT OF THE NORTHEAST EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. AS THIS OCCURS...ANTICIPATE ALREADY PRESENT MVFR CEILINGS
OVER THE LAKE TO MOVE WEST ACROSS THE TERMINALS...EXCEPT RFD.
THERE WILL ALSO BE A PERIOD OF SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS TO SPILL
OFF THE LAKE DURING THIS TIME...BUT WITH MDW/GYY THE LIKELY
LOCATIONS TO OBSERVE THIS PRECIP.
RODRIGUEZ
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* MEDIUM HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH WIND SPEED/DIRECTION.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH VFR CEILINGS...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE WITH MVFR
CEILINGS.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE WITH LIGHT SHOWERS.
RODRIGUEZ
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
* TUESDAY NIGHT...DRY/VFR.
* WEDNESDAY...DRY/VFR. EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS.
* THURSDAY...DRY/VFR. SOUTH WINDS.
* FRIDAY...DRY/VFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS.
* SATURDAY...DRY/VFR. WEST WINDS.
* SUNDAY...DRY/VFR. SOUTH WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...
250 PM...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE REGION CENTERED
OVER NORTHERN LAKE HURON LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY DRIFT EAST OVERNIGHT. THIS LOW WILL THEN REACH LAKE ONTARIO
AROUND DAYBREAK TUE. THE BACK EDGE OF THIS LOW CONTINUES TO
FEATURE A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT...WHICH HAS PRODUCED GUSTY
WINDS JUST BEGINNING TO SLIDE OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
LAKE. THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY SLIDE SOUTH THIS
EVENING...AND EXPECT NORTH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
ONTARIO WILL BEGIN TO BUILD SOUTH OVERNIGHT...THEN STRETCH FROM
ONTARIO SOUTH TO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY TUE NGT. THIS WILL
BRING MUCH LIGHTER WINDS TO THE LAKE BY WED.
BEACHLER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-
LMZ745...10 PM MONDAY TO 7 AM WEDNESDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
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[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
242 PM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014
Weak low pressure over the Great Lakes this afternoon with a weak
boundary trailing out behind it through Central and Southeastern
Illinois. Forecast for the overnight rather quiet with
northwesterly flow continuing, though the winds may be variable at
times, becoming light after sunset. Dry air filtering into the CWA
as the overnight cools should keep the RH just sub saturation. This
in concert with winds at or above 5kt or so...fog issues are not
expected. However, another wave making its way into the larger
scale trof from nrn MN is keeping a lobe of lower clouds a bit
further out to the west. This particular area is expected to dive
southeast in the overnight hours...while the rest of the system
pulls out to the east on the synoptic scale. The NAM is keeping the
llvls far more significant and brushing ILX northeast with the edge
of the more substantial cloud cover. Remaining models not really
holding onto as much. Sat imagery also shows a slow erosion of the
western edge of the clouds...as well as the HRRR supporting the
clouds staying to the north and northeast. It may be close, but
leaving the overnight mostly clear and lows dipping into the low to
mid 40s.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014
As the 500 mb wave cuts off over the eastern Great Lakes tomorrow,
the northeast CWA will be on the southwest fringe of better
moist/cyclonic flow, and will be close to strato-cu deck. Most
high-res models keep thicker cloud cover to our east and will
continue to trend forecast that way. Regardless, highs will be
several degrees below normal, ranging from the mid 50s northeast to
low 60 in the south/southwest.
Wednesday and Thursday...Surface and and upper level ridging shift across
the Midwest ahead of the next upper level weakness moving into the
northern Plains. This will provide clear/dry and seasonably cool
weather. As the next system shifts into the upper Midwest, showers
should overspread Iowa and Missouri early Thursday. However as the
dynamics with this feature shift east of the Mississippi River it
will encounter increasingly dry air and surface/upper ridging. As a
result most of the shower activity is expected to decay during the
afternoon/evening as it shifts through the northern half of the
CWA. Slight chance pops will cover this possibility.
Friday through Monday...Medium range guidance/ensembles show good
agreement that a pronounced warming trend will affect the region.
This will result from troughs affecting the west and east coasts,
allowing upper ridging to build across the central U.S., and drawing
up a thermal ridge from the southern Plains, pushing 850 mb temps to
+12-16 C this weekend. Friday will see some moderation with
readings returning near to slightly above normal. In a rarity for
early fall, highs on Saturday and Sunday are progged to be 10-15
degrees above normal without strong winds aiding in low level warm
advection, due to high pressure in the vicinity. If the GFS is
correct, southerly flow will increase later Sunday in tightening
gradient ahead of the next low pressure complex in the Plains. As
this system shifts east it will bring the next chance of rain to the
region for early next week. Considerable uncertainty exists at
that range, with the 12z ECMWF depicting a much weaker system.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014
Northwesterly flow today with clear skies becoming more northerly
by morning. Light and somewhat variable in the overnight. Some
moisture in the low levels may develop into some sct clouds...with
more bkn deck to the north and northeast. Some concern that the
shortwave over the upper Midwest would dive into the region and
threaten ILX terminals with a more bkn deck. NAM is the only one
showing enough moisture to cover CMI and BMI...other models drier,
including the HRRR. For now, will maintain the SCT mention, though
later issuances may require a bkn deck for CMI and BMI.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...25
AVIATION...HJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
348 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014
...UPDATED SHORT TERM SECTION...
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014
A RATHER ANOMALOUSLY HIGH UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WAS CENTERED
DIRECTLY OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS TODAY, WITH AFTERNOON RAP ANALYSIS
SHOWING A 583 DAM 500MB CENTER NEAR DODGE CITY. THIS RESULTED IN
LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. CLEAR SKIES
PREVAILED AFTER THE MORNING FOG AMIDST THE SUBSIDENCE. A WEAK
SURFACE FRONT PUSHED SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY, WHICH WAS STALLING
OUT AND DISSOLVING FROM THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA. THERE WAS A CORRIDOR OF 53-59F SURFACE DEWPOINTS EXTENDING
FROM THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. AS WINDS BECOME
EAST AND EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY TONIGHT, THIS MOISTURE WILL PULL WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD INTO FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND THE COLORADO BORDER. WE
EXPECT FOG AND PERHAPS DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP AGAIN LATE TONIGHT,
PRIMARILY 09Z AND LATER TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
FALL TO LOWS IN THE MID 40S AS A RULE ALONG/NORTH OF THE ARKANSAS
RIVER. CLOSER TO THE OKLAHOMA BORDER, LOWS SHOULD NOT FALL BELOW
LOWER 50S GIVEN THE HIGHER SURFACE MOISTURE CONTENT.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH ON TUESDAY IN
RESPONSE TO DEEPENING PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AS ANOTHER
PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. ALONG WITH THE
SOUTH WINDS, A BAND OF STRATUS WILL DEVELOP UP TO AROUND 2000 FEET
AGL, WHICH WILL EXPAND NORTHWARD DURING THE EARLY TO MID MORNING
HOURS. EVENTUALLY, THE STRATUS WILL SCATTER OUT AS IT SHIFTS TO THE
NORTH, BUT AREAS UP ALONG I-70 MAY SEE LOW CLOUDS THROUGH 19 OR 20Z,
WHICH WOULD CERTAINLY MITIGATE THE WARM-UP. HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE
LOWERED JUST A LITTLE BIT BECAUSE OF THIS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014
MAIN SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POP GRADIENT FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BROUGHT
THE GRADIENT FURTHER EAST WITH LESSER AMOUNTS ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS.
MESOSCALE MODELS ARE STARTING TO AGREE WITH GLOBAL MODELS THAT THERE
WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT, WHICH IS NOT FAVORABLE
FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS. THE BEST FRONTOGENESIS
WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS INTO NEBRASKA. HAVE THE HIGHEST
POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES. AGAIN, TO THE SOUTHWEST, THINK CHANCE
OF MORE SIGNIFICANT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS DWINDLING. SEVERE WEATHER
IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO MARGINAL MUCAPE AND PARTICULARLY BULK SHEAR.
BEYOND WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY HO-HUM AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL FAVOR
TEMPERATURES 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. WE MAY SEE A MODERATE STRENGTH
FRONT IN ABOUT A WEEK FROM NOW WITH ASSOCIATED COOLER TEMPERATURES.
OTHERWISE WARMTH AND A PRECIPITATION-FREE FORECAST WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE LONG TERM DOMAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014
SKIES CLEARED RAPIDLY AFTER THE MORNING FOG. WINDS WILL BE
EASTERLY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT
PUSH. THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT AND DISSOLVE LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT, HOWEVER RESIDUAL MOISTURE NORTH OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY
YIELD DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AGAIN LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
AT THIS TIME, IT DOES NOT APPEAR DENSE FOG WILL FORM AT DDC, GCK,
OR HYS WITH THE BEST THREAT FOR FOG ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A PERIOD OF MVFR STRATUS, HOWEVER, IN THE
12-18Z TIME FRAME AT DDC AND GCK (1200-2000 FOOT BROKEN-OVERCAST).
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 48 75 56 76 / 0 0 10 50
GCK 45 75 56 76 / 0 0 10 40
EHA 51 75 54 73 / 0 0 10 20
LBL 50 75 55 76 / 0 0 10 30
HYS 44 71 57 76 / 0 0 10 60
P28 52 77 57 77 / 0 0 10 60
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...SUGDEN
AVIATION...UMSCHEID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
222 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014
...UPDATE TO LONG TERM...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014
IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE, THERE IS A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN TO EASTERN COLORADO THIS MORNING. AT THE
SURFACE, THERE IS A TROUGH RUNNING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST TODAY
AND BE FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA TO NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BY
TONIGHT. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE AND WASH OUT,
AND ALLOW ONLY LIGHT EASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON. I DID BUMP HIGH TEMPERATURES UP JUST SLIGHTLY DOWN
ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER, AND THINK THERE COULD EVEN BE A COUPLE
OF LOCATIONS WITH HIGHS AROUND 80F DEGREES SOUTH OF THE TROUGH.
NORTH OF THE TROUGH IN THE SCOTT CITY TO HAYS AREAS, HIGHS SHOULD
ONLY REACH TO THE 73F-74F RANGE.
TONIGHT SHOULD STAY MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST
UPSLOPE WINDS AT LESS THAN 7 MPH. THEREFORE, I THINK MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO THIS NIGHT`S, RANGING FROM THE
MID 40S NORTH OF I-70 TO AROUND 50F DEGREES FROM JOHNSON TO DODGE
CITY TO PRATT, AND TO THE LOWER 50S ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.
THERE WILL JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SOME FOG TO FORM, MAINLY FROM
SCOTT CITY TO DODGE CITY TO ASHLAND. FOR NOW, HAVE PLACED PATCHY
FOG WORDING IN FROM APPROXIMATELY 09Z TO 14Z TUESDAY MORNING. THE
NAM AND RAP MODELS HAVE LESS THAN 1 MILE VISIBILITY OVER OUR
EASTERN FORECAST AREA.
OTHER THAN MAX TEMPS TODAY AND THE ADDITION OF FOG, NO OTHER
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014
MAIN SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POP GRADIENT FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BROUGHT
THE GRADIENT FURTHER EAST WITH LESSER AMOUNTS ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS.
MESOSCALE MODELS ARE STARTING TO AGREE WITH GLOBAL MODELS THAT THERE
WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT, WHICH IS NOT FAVORABLE
FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS. THE BEST FRONTOGENESIS
WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS INTO NEBRASKA. HAVE THE HIGHEST
POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES. AGAIN, TO THE SOUTHWEST, THINK CHANCE
OF MORE SIGNIFICANT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS DWINDLING. SEVERE WEATHER
IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO MARGINAL MUCAPE AND PARTICULARLY BULK SHEAR.
BEYOND WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY HO-HUM AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL FAVOR
TEMPERATURES 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. WE MAY SEE A MODERATE STRENGTH
FRONT IN ABOUT A WEEK FROM NOW WITH ASSOCIATED COOLER TEMPERATURES.
OTHERWISE WARMTH AND A PRECIPITATION-FREE FORECAST WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE LONG TERM DOMAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014
SKIES CLEARED RAPIDLY AFTER THE MORNING FOG. WINDS WILL BE
EASTERLY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT
PUSH. THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT AND DISSOLVE LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT, HOWEVER RESIDUAL MOISTURE NORTH OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY
YIELD DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AGAIN LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
AT THIS TIME, IT DOES NOT APPEAR DENSE FOG WILL FORM AT DDC, GCK,
OR HYS WITH THE BEST THREAT FOR FOG ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A PERIOD OF MVFR STRATUS, HOWEVER, IN THE
12-18Z TIME FRAME AT DDC AND GCK (1200-2000 FOOT BROKEN-OVERCAST).
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 48 75 56 76 / 0 0 10 50
GCK 45 75 56 76 / 0 0 10 40
EHA 51 75 54 73 / 0 0 10 20
LBL 50 75 55 76 / 0 0 10 30
HYS 44 71 57 76 / 0 0 10 60
P28 52 77 57 77 / 0 0 10 60
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...SUGDEN
AVIATION...UMSCHEID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1238 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014
...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014
IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE, THERE IS A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN TO EASTERN COLORADO THIS MORNING. AT THE
SURFACE, THERE IS A TROUGH RUNNING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST TODAY
AND BE FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA TO NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BY
TONIGHT. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE AND WASH OUT,
AND ALLOW ONLY LIGHT EASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON. I DID BUMP HIGH TEMPERATURES UP JUST SLIGHTLY DOWN
ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER, AND THINK THERE COULD EVEN BE A COUPLE
OF LOCATIONS WITH HIGHS AROUND 80F DEGREES SOUTH OF THE TROUGH.
NORTH OF THE TROUGH IN THE SCOTT CITY TO HAYS AREAS, HIGHS SHOULD
ONLY REACH TO THE 73F-74F RANGE.
TONIGHT SHOULD STAY MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST
UPSLOPE WINDS AT LESS THAN 7 MPH. THEREFORE, I THINK MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO THIS NIGHT`S, RANGING FROM THE
MID 40S NORTH OF I-70 TO AROUND 50F DEGREES FROM JOHNSON TO DODGE
CITY TO PRATT, AND TO THE LOWER 50S ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.
THERE WILL JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SOME FOG TO FORM, MAINLY FROM
SCOTT CITY TO DODGE CITY TO ASHLAND. FOR NOW, HAVE PLACED PATCHY
FOG WORDING IN FROM APPROXIMATELY 09Z TO 14Z TUESDAY MORNING. THE
NAM AND RAP MODELS HAVE LESS THAN 1 MILE VISIBILITY OVER OUR
EASTERN FORECAST AREA.
OTHER THAN MAX TEMPS TODAY AND THE ADDITION OF FOG, NO OTHER
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING AS MOISTURE
INCREASES ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTHWARD AS THE DAY PROGRESSES WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION SOUTH OF THIS FRONT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST
TUESDAY THEN INTO THE ROCKIES WEDNESDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE THEN MOVES
THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WHICH WILL
IN TURN PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY
CLOUDY WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALSO INCREASE AS THIS
SYSTEM APPROACHES SPREADING WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
THE BEST CHANCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM THEN MOVES OUT OF THE
AREA THURSDAY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THURSDAY MORNING. CLOUDS WILL ALSO DECREASE
THURSDAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WHICH SHOULD SUPPRESS ANY
ACTIVITY FROM FORMING ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. AS FOR TEMPERATURES,
HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH LOWS
STARTING OUT IN THE LOWER 50S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNING WITH
MID TO UPPER 40S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014
SKIES CLEARED RAPIDLY AFTER THE MORNING FOG. WINDS WILL BE
EASTERLY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT
PUSH. THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT AND DISSOLVE LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT, HOWEVER RESIDUAL MOISTURE NORTH OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY
YIELD DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AGAIN LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
AT THIS TIME, IT DOES NOT APPEAR DENSE FOG WILL FORM AT DDC, GCK,
OR HYS WITH THE BEST THREAT FOR FOG ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A PERIOD OF MVFR STRATUS, HOWEVER, IN THE
12-18Z TIME FRAME AT DDC AND GCK (1200-2000 FOOT BROKEN-OVERCAST).
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 77 50 76 55 / 0 0 0 10
GCK 75 49 75 54 / 0 0 0 10
EHA 74 51 77 52 / 0 0 0 10
LBL 75 51 77 53 / 0 0 0 10
HYS 75 46 73 55 / 0 0 0 10
P28 78 52 77 55 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...UMSCHEID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
110 PM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1135 AM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014
The area of rain associated with this morning`s PV anomaly continues
to slowly shift to the east. Coverage of showers across south
central Kentucky is a bit higher late this morning than previously
anticipated so have bumped up pops for the next few hours. Isolated
to scattered showers will continue to be possible this afternoon and
into the evening hours as a front approaches and moves into the
area.
Issued at 928 AM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014
The narrow line of showers continues to slowly move east across the
area. In addition, a few showers have popped up both north and south
of this line. In general the forecast is in pretty good shape. The
pop grids were updated to include a slight chance for precipitation
across south central KY where the forecast was dry before. Also
brought grids in line with current observations.
Issued at 615 AM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014
A narrow line of showers has developed over southern Indiana ahead
of an approaching PV anomaly from the NW. These light showers will
continue to push east across the northern half of the CWA through
the morning. Have increased chances to likely (60-70% coverage)
along a narrow axis in southern IN and northern KY to account. The
highest pops will roughly be along and several miles either side of
the I-64 corridor. Areas north and south of this region can expect
isolated to widely scattered light rain showers through the morning
and early afternoon.
Refer to the 20/00z or 20/06z NAM or recent runs of the HRRR as they
appear to have a good handle on what will transpire with light rain
today.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014
Things are quiet across the CWA at this hour, with only some mid and
upper level sky cover in place, and temperatures running in the low
and mid 40s. Will watch chances for isolated to scattered rain
showers increase over the next few hours ahead of a PV anomaly
diving in from the upper Midwest. Light rain showers have already
begun to organize from NW Indiana through southern Missouri ahead of
this feature, and expect a cluster of these showers to mainly focus
over southern Indiana and northern Kentucky later this morning. Less
impressed with measurable rain chances across south central KY where
there will be less moisture and more displaced from the best
forcing. Can`t rule out an isolated sprinkle, but think measurable
rain will be hard to come by. Will see temperatures warm to the mid
and upper 60s today on a steady SW wind, despite the lack of strong
solar insolation.
Will keep an chances for an isolated shower in across the far NE
into the late evening hours where deep moisture will be most
impressive. Things should dry out after Midnight. Will see milder
lows tonight under cloud cover and a somewhat mixy near-surface
environment.
Will have one more shot at isolated light rain showers across our NE
on Tuesday morning as another wave dives into the mean trough over
the eastern CONUS, and combines with the lingering low level
moisture. Most spots will stay dry this day with a fairly sizable
temperature gradient across the CWA. Look for upper 50s NE to mid to
upper 60s SW.
.LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014
An extended period of tranquil fall weather is on the way, with no
precip chances in the forecast through Sunday. The middle of the
week will feature shortwave ridging aloft, but Canadian surface high
pressure will be drawn southward behind a slowly departing East
Coast low. This will keep out temps below normal for most of the
work week. Coldest mornings will be Thursday with the surface ridge
axis directly over the Ohio Valley, and Friday as favorable
radiational cooling conditions persist. More sheltered/rural
locations could see lows in the 30s, and frost can`t be ruled out
either.
By the weekend, the next upper shortwave trof will weaken as it
heads into the Great Lakes, and with precipitable water values
barely touching climo, the only sensible weather impact will likely
be an increase in cloud cover. Temps will recover to near or above
climo as upper ridge starts to build from the SW, but that could be
limited by N-NE low-level flow depending on how strongly the surface
high is reinforced by the weakening upper impulse. Current forecast
is more in line with the raw model consensus, but if the upper
ridging wins out extended GFS MOS highs in the 70s could be the way
to go.
&&
.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 105 PM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014
Isolated showers will continue this afternoon as another disturbance
nears the area. However, the chances of any one of them affecting
the terminals are low so will leave mention of them out of the TAFs.
VFR conditions are expected to continue for the remainder of the
afternoon at all sites. Some breaks in the clouds are expected
through the afternoon.
For tonight a cold front will move through the area. Clouds will
build back in, particularly at LEX and SDF. This will shift winds to
the northwest by tomorrow morning with speeds increasing to 8-10
knots. Some light fog will be possible at LEX early tomorrow
morning. This should improve shortly after sunrise.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Update.........EER/BJS
Short Term.....BJS
Long Term......RAS
Aviation.......EER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
413 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES INTO THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES AND A RIDGE OVER
THE WRN PLAINS RESULTING IN NNW FLOW THROUGH THE THE WRN LAKES. AT
THE SFC...NNW WINDS PREVAILED BTWN LOW PRES OVER NRN LAKE HURON AND
HIGH PRES OVER NW ONTARIO. THE COMBINATION OF ABUNDANT SFC-800 MB
MOISTURE...CYCLONIC AND UPSLOPE NRLY FLOW AND 850 MB TEMPS AROUND
-1C (LAKE WATER TEMPS STILL NEAR 8C-9C) WAS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME
SCT LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES INTO W AND N CNTRL UPPER MI.
TONIGHT...UPSTREAM OBS MDLS SUGGEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST
AS 850 MB TEMPS FALL TO NEAR -4C...HELPING TO SUSTAIN SOME LIGHT
PCPN. AS THE NW ONTARIO HIGH BUILDS TO THE SE...VEERING WINDS TO
NNE WILL SHIFT THE REMAINING LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS MAINLY INTO N
CNTRL UPPER MI...WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW IS MAXIMIZED. EVEN THOUGH
WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS FALL BELOW 500 FT AGL...EXPECT THAT THE LAKE
OF ICE NUCLEI IN THE MOIST LAYER THAT ONLY EXTENDS TO NEAR
-5C...WILL NOT SUPPORT SNOW. CLOUDS WILL LINGER OVER MOST OF THE
AREA...KEEPING MIN READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. HOWEVER...THERE
MAY BE SOME CLEARING OVER THE EAST WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW FROM ONTARIO E
OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
TUE...THE LINGERING 2K-3K FT LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL KEEP
MOISTURE/CLOUDS TRAPPED INTO THE MORNING...ESPECIALLY DOWNSTREAM OF
MOISTENING OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. BY AFTERNOON...EXPECT ENOUGH
HEATING/MIXING AND DRY ADVECTION TO BRING DIMINISHING CLOUDS THAT
WILL PUSH TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 40S OVER THE S AND WEST WHILE LOWER
READINGS IN THE LOW 40S PREVAIL OVER THE NORTH.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING WILL BE DRY FOR THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES...AS THE 500MB TROUGH OVERHEAD TODAY DIGS INTO THE NE
U.S. THIS WILL SET UP RIDGING AT THE SFC AND ALOFT FOR THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES...WITH SLOWLY MODIFYING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. THE MAIN
CONCERN FOR THOSE WITH SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS STILL WILL BE
MORNING LOWS TUESDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL FALL AT OR BELOW 32F FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA EXCLUDING THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA.
THURSDAY...MODELS HAVE COME IN A BIT WETTER FOR THE
THURSDAY-THURSDAY EVENING TIME PERIOD AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DIGS
ACROSS ONTARIO AND MN DURING THE DAY. WHILE THE MAIN SFC LOW WILL
STILL BE OVER W CANADA AT THAT TIME...A SFC TROUGH OVER MANITOBA AND
NW MN THURSDAY MORNING WILL NEAR THE REGION. WITH UPPER MI STUCK IN
THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IN BETWEEN THE DEEPENING LOW OFF THE NE
COAST...AND THE CANADIAN LOW. LIMITED E PROGRESS OF SHOWERS IS STILL
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH POPS WERE INCREASED SLIGHTLY FOR THE W...AND
WERE EXTENDED INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF BACK
THIS SOLUTION.
LOOK FOR THE 500MB WAVE TO PUSH E OF LAKE SUPERIOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH ANY LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS ENDING. THE W CANADIAN
SFC LOW-500MB LOW WILL SHIFT INTO NE MANITOBA OVERNIGHT...WITH WARM
AIR SURGING INTO UPPER MI. 850MB TEMPS OF 8-12C LOOK REASONABLE
FRIDAY NIGHT ON WSW WINDS...WITH SFC TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 40S.
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE OUR TRANSITION PERIOD...AS ZONAL
FLOW SLIDES IN ALOFT...AND THE SFC RIDGE EXITS TO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE FCST GUIDANCE...SHOWING UP
ON THE IDEA OF HOW MUCH COLD AIR WILL BE ABLE TO SNEAK IN FROM THE
NW. THE 20/00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF HAS 850MB TEMPS AROUND 2C AT 00Z
SUNDAY...WHILE THE 20/12Z IS AT A MUCH MORE MILD 7C. WILL KEEP WITH
A MORE BLENDED SOLUTION FOR THE FCST STILL AT THIS POINT.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL BRING ABOUT A RETURN OF THE 500MB
RIDGE...EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH ONTARIO. THIS
RIDGE WILL SLOWLY EXIT TOWARD THE NEW ENGLAND STATES ON MONDAY AS A
TROUGH SETTLES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND NEARS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF WET WEATHER LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
OF NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPS REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014
EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO PREVAIL INTO TONIGHT...THOUGH A PERIOD OF IFR
CIGS SHOULD LINGER EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AT SAW. LAKE ENHANCED RAIN
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AT KSAW. THE
PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF WEST UPPER
MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT BUT SHOULD LINGER INTO TUE MORNING AT SAW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014
LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR NEAR WHITEFISH POINT WILL
MOVE TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT.
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BTWN THE EXITING LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE BUILDING OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO. EXPECT NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS INCREASING TO 25-30 KTS THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENING OVER
CNTRL AND EASTERN LK SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY MORNING
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES ACROSS LK SUPERIOR. WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KTS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH STRONGER
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES NORTHERN ONTARIO.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
141 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014
A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE SYSTEM MOVES
OUT BY TUESDAY NIGHT ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. THAT WILL ALLOW FOR AN EXTENDED
PERIOD MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SLOWLY WARMING TEMPERATURES.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014
MODIFIED POPS TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AS UPPER TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH. ALSO ADDED SOME DRIZZLE THIS AFTERNOON AS STRATOCU
PUSHES SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE CWA. RH PROFILES SHOW SOME LIFT IN
THE CLOUD LAYER AND THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 752 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014
I ADDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR FORECAST NEAR AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 94 FOR THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATEST RUN
OF THE RAP13 SHOWS VERTICAL TOTAL ARE AROUND 30C NEAR THE CONVECTION
CROSSING SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AT 735 AM THIS MORNING. OUR TOTAL
LIGHTNING TRACKER IS SHOWING A HIGH FREQUENCY OF IN- CLOUD
LIGHTING WITH THESE STORMS (6-10 PER MINUTES). RAP SOUNDING IN
FRONT OF THE CONVECTION (UPPER WAVE ) SHOW 300 TO 400 J/KG OF
CAPE. THE LATEST SPC SREF 3 HOUR THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITY SHOWS THE
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS GOES ALONG WITH THIS IDEA TOO. SO ALL
OF THIS TELLS ME THE LINE OF SHOWERS WILL KEPT MOVING EAST ACROSS
OUR SOUTHERN CWA THIS MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014
THE WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION IS ALMOST OUT OF THE AREA SO THAT
WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE FOR FORECAST TODAY. THE MAIN ISSUE FOR TODAY
IS THE OUTSIDE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON EAST OF
GRAND RAPIDS. ONCE THAT IS DONE WE DO GET INTO ANOTHER COLD POOL
OF AIR THAT TYPICALLY LEADS TO LAKE EFFECT SHOWER WHICH WOULD
OCCUR FROM THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
WHAT BRINGS THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER OUR SE CWA LATE THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IS THE 850 THERMAL RIDGE IS
UNDER THE 500 MB COLD POOL. SO THAT RESULTS IN VERTICAL TOTALS
NEAR 28C. THE 850 MB LI FALLS TO NEAR -1C OVER THE I-69 AREA
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON WHILE THIS IS HAPPENING. WE ALSO HAVE
THE EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET COMING INTO PLAY AT THIS TIME TO
HELP THE CAUSE. HOWEVER I DID NOT GO FOR THIS BECAUSE WHEN I
ACTUALLY LOOKED AT MODEL SOUNDINGS (RAP AND NAM) THERE IS AN
INVERSION NEAR 850 MB THAT WILL HARD TO OVERCOME. EVEN IF THAT CAN
BE OVERCOME THE CAPE IS VERY NARROW. SO MY SPIN WAS TO GO WITH
CHANCE POP FOR SHOWERS AND CALL THAT GOOD.
THE NEXT ISSUE IS LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS ONCE WE GET INTO THE 850
COLD POOL OF AIR TONIGHT. FOR A SHORT TIME... 6 PM TILL
MIDNIGHT... WE HAVE A MOIST LAYER TO NEAR 10000 FT WITH NORTH
WINDS BELOW THE INVERSION. THAT SHOULD RESULT OF IN LAKE EFFECT
SHOWERS OVER THE LAKE (NORTH WINDS) AND MAYBE TOUCHING THE POINTS
AND EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGAN AND VAN BUREN COUNTIES. THAT DOES NOT
LAST LONG... WINDS BECOME NORTH NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND PUSH
THAT SHOWERS OFF SHORE. BY 8 AM TUESDAY THE UPPER JET PASSES OVER
AHEAD AN INVERSION HEIGHTS CRASH TO NEAR 4000 FT AGL. SO WHAT EVER
THREAT THERE IS FOR SHOWERS QUICKLY ENDS.
WITH THE UPPER JET TO OUR EAST AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN I EXPECT CLEARING SKIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THUS ANOTHER
BELOW FREEZING NIGHT EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRING SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS FOR WEDNESDAY DURING THE DAY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AND BRING FAIR AND DRY WX. A CONSENSUS
OF LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT A MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THIS
WEAKENING SYSTEM SHOULD COME THROUGH DRY.
DRY AND MILD WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WAA. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL COME
THROUGH SATURDAY BUT THIS SYSTEM IS ALSO LACKING IN MOISTURE AND
SHOULD COME THROUGH DRY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 136 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014
A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE TAF SITES IN SOUTHWEST
LOWER MI WAS PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS AND EVEN AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM. IN ADDITION LOWER CLOUD BASES WERE NOTED WITH MANY
SITES UNDER 2K FEET. THIS FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST OF KJXN BY
20Z. A PATCH OF CLEARING WAS SEEN BEHIND THE FRONT AND GENERALLY
VFR CLOUDS WERE NOTED TOWARD KMKG AND KFFX. THIS SHOULD BE THE
PREVAILING CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. AS WE GO INTO THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...LOWER CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO ADVECT
DOWN FROM THE NORTH. THERE COULD BE SOME DRIZZLE AS WELL. MVFR
CLOUD BASES ARE EXPECTED...WITH A LOW RISK FOR IFR. NOT MUCH
CHANGES INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH MVFR CLOUDS TO PREVAIL.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014
WITH THE CORE OF WINDS TO 40 KNOTS MOVING EAST OF THE AREA BY
SUNRISE... WINDS WILL DECREASE FOR A TIME TILL THE COLD AIR POOL
AT MID LEVEL MOVES IN BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THEN I WOULD EXPECT
NORTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. SO I WILL
CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS IS AND CALL THAT GOOD.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS COMING WEEKEND (ECMWF AND GFS ) SO RIVER LEVELS SHOULD SLOWLY
FALL OVER TIME.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
UPDATE...93
SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...WDM
MARINE...WDM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
346 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
AND PRODUCE OCCASIONAL SHOWERS. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST
COAST BY WEDNESDAY BUT REMAIN CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE RAIN WILL BE MOST
PREVALENT ACROSS CENTRAL NY BUT A FEW SHOWERS WILL ALSO PERSIST
ACROSS THE WESTERN END OF THE STATE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE
COOL SIDE THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK BEFORE WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER
DEVELOPS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING A FEW SPRINKLES AND VERY LIGHT SHOWERS
CROSSING THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE MOST CONCENTRATED
ACTIVITY CROSSING LAKE ONTARIO INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. MOST
AREAS WILL SEE NOTHING MORE THAN A SPRINKLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND OBJECTIVE RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS A MID LEVEL
TROUGH CROSSING THE CENTRAL LAKES...WITH A POTENT VORTICITY MAXIMA
NOTED ENTERING WESTERN OHIO. THIS FEATURE HAS A CONCENTRATED BAND OF
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH IT...AND IS FORECAST TO ENTER WESTERN NY BY
MID EVENING. GIVEN THE TRAJECTORY OF THE STRONGEST ASCENT IN ADVANCE
OF THIS VORTICITY MAXIMA...EXPECT THE MOST ORGANIZED SHOWERS THIS
EVENING TO PASS ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER...AND THIS HAS
SUPPORT FROM SHORT TERM MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE NAM
AND GEM SOLUTIONS.
OVERNIGHT THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
ONTARIO AND REACH WESTERN NY BY 12Z TUESDAY...AN UNUSUAL LOW TRACK
FROM A CLIMATOLOGY STANDPOINT. ALOFT THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE LOWER LAKES AND BEGIN TO DEVELOP A CLOSED
CIRCULATION. SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION...AND WILL BE MOST CONCENTRATED WITHIN AREAS OF DPVA AHEAD OF
SEVERAL NOTABLE VORTICITY MAXIMA ROTATING AROUND THE DEVELOPING
CLOSED LOW. THE FIRST OF THESE WILL MOVE FROM THE WESTERN SOUTHERN
TIER THIS EVENING ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES TO THE NORTH COUNTRY BY
EARLY TUESDAY...WEAKENING WITH EASTERN EXTENT. THE SECOND IS
FORECAST TO WRAP INTO WESTERN NY ON TUESDAY. WHILE THE FORCING AND
MOISTURE COMING TOGETHER YIELD A HIGH PROBABILITY OF RAIN TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY...THE TRANSIENT AND COMPLEX NATURE OF FORCING WITH THE
LOW CROSSING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD WILL MAKE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE
PERIODS OF ENHANCED RAIN DIFFICULT AT BEST. WITH THIS IN MIND HAVE
GONE WITH HIGH CATEGORICAL POPS BUT KEPT THE WORDING OF OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE TRICKY TO PLACE AS WELL...WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS REMAINING RELATIVELY LOCALIZED. IN GENERAL EXPECT AMOUNTS OF
A QUARTER TO THIRD OF AN INCH IN MOST AREAS...BUT SOME MESOSCALE
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A PERSISTENT AREA OF CONVERGENCE AND UPSLOPE
FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER WHICH MAY PRODUCE LOCAL
AMOUNTS OF UP TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH.
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP A RELATIVELY SMALL DIURNAL RANGE IN
TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID 40S IN
MOST AREAS TONIGHT WITH LOWER 40S IN THE COOLEST SOUTHERN TIER
VALLEYS AND TUG HILL REGION...AND UPPER 40S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
LAKESHORES. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 50S IN MOST AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
EXITING UPPER WAVE ANCHORING THE BROADER MID LEVEL TROUGH
AMPLIFICATION WILL CLOSE OFF AS IT SETTLES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD. THE EXTENSIVE MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW
WILL PUSH WESTWARD INTO WESTERN NEW YORK TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE FIRST
PART OF WEDNESDAY...BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY. WE SHOULD
SEE THE SHOWER ACTIVITY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST LATER WEDNESDAY
AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION DRIFTS OFF THE EAST COAST AND DRY
AIR ALOFT ENCROACHES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FROM THE WEST.
HOWEVER...DEVELOPING NORTH NORTHEAST FLOW WHICH WILL LIKELY SUPPORT
ADDITIONAL SHOWER DEVELOP SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND IN FAVORED
UPSLOPE AREAS. THERE SHOULD BE AN UPTICK TO THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
THURSDAY AS THE LOW DRIFTS BACK TO THE WEST AND A FRESH SLUG OF
ATLANTIC MOISTURE WRAPS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. THE COOL
NORTHERLY FLOW AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE PRODUCING PLENTY OF CLOUD
COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ON THE COOL SIDE OF AVERAGE THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINING CONSISTENT...AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST TRACKS SLOWLY NORTH INTO THE GULF OF MAINE AND
ATLANTIC MOISTURE. PLENTY OF MARITIME AIR WILL BE WRAPPED WESTWARD
INTO THE REGION CONTINUING THE DREARY WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND GREATER POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL
REMAINS FOCUSED EAST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY.
AN IMPROVEMENT LOOKS TO COME BY THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE LOW FINALLY LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES ALLOWING FOR DRIER CONDITIONS AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR WILL LAST INTO EARLY EVENING BEFORE CONDITIONS BEGIN TO
DETERIORATE. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE NEAR KIAG WHERE LOCAL SSW
FLOW OFF LAKE ERIE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE AREAS OF MVFR CIGS
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. ANY SHOWERS THROUGH 22Z WILL BE VERY LIGHT
WITH NO REDUCTION IN CIGS/VSBY.
EARLY THIS EVENING SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH SHOWERS BECOMING MOST WIDESPREAD AT FIRST ACROSS THE
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. CIGS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR THEN IFR
THROUGH MID TO LATE EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. THE
NIAGARA FRONTIER INCLUDING KBUF/KIAG/KROC SHOULD STAY MAINLY VFR AT
FIRST WITH ANY SHOWERS REMAINING LIGHT AND SSW FLOW HELPING TO
DOWNSLOPE AWAY ANY LOWER CIGS.
OVERNIGHT SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD...AND LOWER CIGS WILL
ALSO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD WITH MVFR AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND IFR
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. BY TUESDAY MORNING LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
LOCATED DIRECTLY OVER WESTERN NY. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE LOW ACROSS THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER AND RESULT IN IFR CIGS BECOMING WIDESPREAD ACROSS WESTERN
NY BY AROUND 12Z TUE. EXPECT THIS IFR TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY WITH VERY MOIST LOW LEVELS AND NORTHEAST FLOW. OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS WILL PERSIST AS WELL...AND COMBINE WITH BR TO PRODUCE AREAS
OF MVFR/IFR VSBY ON TUESDAY.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AREAS OF MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN...
RAIN LIKELY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NY.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
MODERATE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS ON LAKE ERIE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING TONIGHT. THIS WILL MAINTAIN
MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON LAKE ERIE FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS. LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE LOWER LAKES LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH A PERIOD OF RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS RIGHT
NEAR THE LOW CENTER.
LATER TUESDAY MORNING NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON LAKE
ONTARIO...THEN INCREASE FURTHER TO AROUND 25 KNOTS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT QUICKLY TIGHTENS BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW.
THIS WILL BRING HIGHER END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO THE
SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO TUESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
NORTHEAST WINDS MAY ALSO INCREASE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON LAKE ERIE LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM TUESDAY TO 11 AM EDT
THURSDAY FOR LOZ043.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM TUESDAY TO 11 AM EDT
THURSDAY FOR LOZ044.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TUESDAY TO 11 AM EDT
THURSDAY FOR LOZ042.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
321 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE NEW MEXICO BOOTHEEL WILL LIFT OUT
NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW MEXICO ON TUESDAY AND WEAKEN. THIS WILL ALLOW
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE PERSISTS. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH QUICKLY FOLLOWS BEHIND THIS
FIRST LOW AND WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF RAIN ON WEDNESDAY. THE
RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST THE LATTER PORTION OF WEDNESDAY AS
THAT UPPER TROUGH EVENTUALLY PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN A BIT BELOW NORMAL. ON THURSDAY HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
BUILDS OVER THE BORDERLAND TO BRING US SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES
BACK ABOVE NORMAL. WEST FLOW THEN STRAIGHTENS...COLLAPSING AND THEN
MOVING THE RIDGE EASTWARD FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS FLOW WILL
REMAIN DRY HOWEVER WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS OVER THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW NOW APPEARS TO BE JUST SOUTH OF THE NM BOOTHEEL. THE LOW
WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT OPENING INTO AN OPEN WAVE BY
TUESDAY MORNING OVER CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. THIS WILL ALLOW SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE PERSISTS...DEW POINTS IN THE 50S. DEEPER LAYERS
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA BUT CURRENT PW`S OVER THE CWA
ARE AROUND .8" AND MODELS SHOWING THOSE PW`S REMAINING AROUND
.8"-.9" ON TUESDAY. THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY SO SOME LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED. IT APPEARS THAT
AS GOOD AS THE HRRR PERFORMED LAST NIGHT...IT IS THAT BAD TODAY.
MODEL SHOWS STRONG CONVECTION TO HAVE ALREADY FORMED OVER WEST TEXAS
AND MOVED NORTHWEST OVER EL PASO BY AROUND THIS TIME. WHILE SOME
CONVECTION IS FORMING IN THIS AREA...NOT EVEN CLOSE TO THE SAME
COVERAGE AS THE HRRR IS SHOWING.
BY TUESDAY NIGHT OPEN WAVE IS NOW OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AS NEXT
PACIFIC TROUGH RAPIDLY MOVES IN BEHIND...OVER WESTERN ARIZONA LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND TO CENTRAL NEW MEXICO MID DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
MAY ENHANCE MORE THUNDERSTORMS INITIALLY ON WEDNESDAY BUT WILL
EVENTUALLY END SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM WEST TO EAST BY AFTERNOON AS
RIDGING AND WARMER AIR ALOFT BUILD OVER THE SOUTHWEST. WILL LEAVE
LOW POPS IN FAR EASTERN CWA WEDNESDAY EVENING BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT
CLEARING BY LATE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A BIT BELOW
NORMAL WITH THE CLOUD COVER.
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO HIGH CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO
BY FRIDAY...AND THEN GRADUALLY DRIFTS EAST AND ERODES AWAY AS STRONG
WEST FLOW DEVELOPS AS STRONG PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS LOOKS BETTER TIMED THAN PREVIOUS
GFS RUNS SO SUNDAY MAY BECOME WINDIER THAN ORIGINALLY THOUGHT.
OTHERWISE DRY AND WARM FROM THURSDAY ONWARD WITH TEMPERATURES BACK
ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID 21/00Z - 21/00Z...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AND DRIFT EAST
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. AREAS OF SHRA AND TSRA
WILL DEVELOP MOSTLY EAST OF KDMN THROUGH THRU 12Z. VSBY WILL BE
PERIODICALLY REDUCED TO LESS THAN 3SM IN MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN. THE
CLOUD DECK WILL INCREASE AND LOWER TO BETWEEN 5000 TO 6000 FEET AGL.
THROUGH 12Z. CIGS AT KTCS MAY BE LOWER OVERNIGHT. PREVAILING WINDS
WILL BE FROM NORTHEAST TO EAST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH STRONGER GUSTS
IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
.FIRE WEATHER...
THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY MOVE TO THE EAST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. A WEAK SECONDARY TROUGH
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...MOSTLY EAST OF
DEMING. DRY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THURSDAY INTO THE NEXT WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL DURING THE DAY AND HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE HIGH THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE AND HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP
SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS DRIER AND MORE
STABLE AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE MAY RESULT IN SOME
STRONG INVERSIONS IN THE MORNINGS WITH POOR VENTILATION RATES
POSSIBLE BY MIDWEEK AND INTO NEXT SATURDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO 56 73 55 75 53 / 40 30 40 30 0
SIERRA BLANCA 50 70 50 72 49 / 50 40 40 40 20
LAS CRUCES 51 71 52 71 49 / 30 30 40 30 0
ALAMOGORDO 51 71 52 71 49 / 40 30 40 30 20
CLOUDCROFT 42 56 40 58 35 / 50 40 40 40 20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 52 71 52 71 51 / 20 30 30 20 0
SILVER CITY 47 66 48 68 47 / 20 20 20 20 0
DEMING 51 72 52 72 48 / 20 30 30 20 0
LORDSBURG 52 72 51 74 49 / 20 20 20 20 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 56 72 56 74 54 / 40 30 40 30 0
DELL CITY 49 72 48 73 45 / 50 40 40 40 20
FORT HANCOCK 54 74 53 77 52 / 50 40 40 30 20
LOMA LINDA 50 67 51 68 51 / 50 30 40 30 20
FABENS 52 75 52 77 50 / 40 30 40 30 0
SANTA TERESA 53 72 53 72 51 / 40 30 40 30 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 54 71 55 70 52 / 40 30 40 30 0
JORNADA RANGE 50 71 47 70 44 / 30 30 40 30 0
HATCH 49 71 49 70 47 / 30 30 30 30 0
COLUMBUS 53 72 54 73 51 / 20 30 30 20 0
OROGRANDE 52 72 53 72 51 / 40 30 40 30 20
MAYHILL 43 61 44 64 42 / 50 40 40 40 20
MESCALERO 40 62 41 63 37 / 40 40 40 40 20
TIMBERON 40 61 42 63 38 / 50 40 40 40 20
WINSTON 45 65 46 67 43 / 30 30 40 30 0
HILLSBORO 49 67 50 68 47 / 20 30 30 20 0
SPACEPORT 48 71 48 70 45 / 30 30 40 30 0
LAKE ROBERTS 44 65 45 68 43 / 30 30 30 20 0
HURLEY 48 68 49 70 49 / 20 20 30 20 0
CLIFF 46 70 44 72 41 / 20 20 20 20 0
MULE CREEK 44 69 41 71 38 / 20 20 20 10 0
FAYWOOD 49 67 50 69 48 / 20 30 30 20 0
ANIMAS 51 73 51 76 49 / 20 20 20 20 0
HACHITA 50 72 49 74 48 / 20 20 30 20 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 49 76 49 76 47 / 20 20 20 20 0
CLOVERDALE 49 74 51 75 48 / 20 20 20 10 0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
HEFNER/LUNDEEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BROWNSVILLE TX
254 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014
.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
BRO RADAR BEGINNING TO LIGHT UP WITH MAINLY SHOWER ACTIVITY
`SHOTGUNNED` ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE
VALLEY ATTM. SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH A LITTLE DIFFLUENCE IN
THE UPPER LEVELS WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND ANOTHER
LOW OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. MORNING SOUNDING WAS MOIST WITH A PWAT
OF 1.84 INCHES AND DECENT MOISTURE UP TO 500 MB. HRRR HAS A GOOD
HANDLE ON THE SITUATION WHICH PROGRESSES MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE BETTER POPS
NORTH OF THE VALLEY TRANSITIONING TO ZAPATA/STARR COUNTIES AFTER
SUNSET.
EXPECTING A REPEAT OF POPS FOR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. CONFINED POPS TO
OUR NORTHERN SECTIONS OF GULF WATERS TOWARDS DAWN THEN MOVE THAT
AREA INLAND IN THE MORNING HOURS. BETTER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE IN THE
THE RANCHLANDS TUESDAY AND HAVE TRIMMED POPS OUT OF THE VALLEY UNTIL
LATER TUESDAY. COVERAGE MAY NOT BE AS GREAT AS TODAY DUE TO DRIER
AIR MOVING INTO THE 850-700MB LAYER. LESS CLOUDS AND BETTER MIXING
OF LL DRY AIR LED ME TO INCREASE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES IN THE VALLEY
TUESDAY WHICH MOS GUIDANCE SUPPORTS AS WELL /3-5 DEGREES OVER GOING
FORECAST/. KEPT HIGHS AS IS NORTH OF THE VALLEY WITH CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS. /55/
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST SHOULD BRING A RETURN TO DRIER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS WE TURN OFF THE ATMOSPHERIC
SPIGOT.
EYES WILL REMAIN FOCUSED ON THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE AS WE HEAD INTO THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS OUR REGION
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH A WEAKENING EASTERLY FLOW HELPING TO KEEP
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HOVERING CLOSE TO THE 2 INCH MARK. WITH A
WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH EMANATING TOWARD THE LOWER TEXAS COAST
FROM THE LOW...I EXPECT ENOUGH FORCING TO BE IN PLACE TO KEEP AT
LEAST AN ISOLATED SMATTERING OF SHOWERS AROUND FOR THE MORNING HOURS.
THE INFLUENCE OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE LOW SHOULD LESSEN AT
MID-WEEK...AS IT STARTS SLIDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF.
WINDS SHOULD BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY AS SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS
ACROSS THE OHIO AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO DRY FROM THE NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
GRADUALLY GET SHOVED SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES.
AS SUCH...THE GREATEST ODDS OF SEEING CONVECTION OVER EASTERN AREAS
SHOULD BE IN THE MORNING HOURS. LOCALES OVER OUR MORE WESTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN AREAS COULD SEE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES
HOLDING ON INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE ODDS OF SEEING STORMS IN MOST
PLACES SHOULD BE LOW...GIVEN WEAKENING AMOUNTS OF SYNOPTIC SCALE
FORCING AND THAT THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE SEEN AT THE
TIME OF DAY WHEN THERE`S A DIURNAL MINIMUM IN INSTABILITY. STILL
THOUGH...IT CANNOT BE DISCOUNTED BY AFTERNOON.
IN ADDITION TO THE RAIN PROBLEM...WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME COASTAL FLOODING AT MID-WEEK. ROUGH SWELLS FROM
THE EAST-NORTHEAST WILL LIKELY COMBINE WITH HIGHER THAN NORMAL
ASTRONMICAL TIDES TO YIELD THE THREAT DURING THE WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY
TIME FRAME. STAY TUNED.
ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD END BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THANKS TO THE
COMBINATION OF A STRENGTHENING RIDGE ALOFT AND (REALLY) DRIER AIR
MOVES SOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE. RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY
ACROSS MID-AMERICA FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE THE PACIFIC COAST.
GIVEN THE EXPECTED STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE BY THIS WEEKEND AND AMPLE
SUNSHINE...FORECAST TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RAISED A FEW DEGREES WITH
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. THERE`S STILL A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THINGS
DURING THE DAY 5 THROUGH 7 TIME PERIOD THOUGH...AS SOIL MOISTURE
FROM ANY RECENT RAINFALL MAY TEMPER HIGHS JUST A BIT. IN ADDITION
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL LIKELY WEAKEN BY SUNDAY OR MONDAY...AS THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NATION`S MIDSECTION.
THANKS TO WPC AND WFO CORPUS CHRISTI FOR COLLABORATION TODAY. /53/
&&
.MARINE...
NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
INCREASING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND GRADUALLY BUILDING SEAS OVER THE
FAR OFFSHORE WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE
SCEC CATEGORY TUESDAY NIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD AS WELL. /55/
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED HEADING INTO MID-WEEK THANKS
TO A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE MARINE AREA. SLIGHTLY
DIMINISHING WIND SPEEDS MAY ALLOW ANY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO BE
DROPPED AT SOME POINT DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...BUT SMALL CRAFT
WILL LIKELY NEED TO CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. INCREASED RIDGING OVER THE REGION FOR THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK SHOULD RESULT IN MORE MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. /53/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 74 86 74 84 / 10 20 20 20
BROWNSVILLE 72 87 73 85 / 10 20 20 20
HARLINGEN 70 87 71 85 / 10 20 20 20
MCALLEN 71 88 70 86 / 10 20 20 20
RIO GRANDE CITY 69 86 69 86 / 20 20 20 20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 76 84 77 84 / 10 20 20 20
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV
SHORT TERM FORECASTER... SCHOLL
LONG TERM FORECASTER... BUTTS
PSU/GRAPHICAST... MARTINEZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
140 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE AREA TODAY AND
CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...AND THEN STALL AND
TRANSITION INTO AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION BY WEDNESDAY. FOR OUR REGION THIS SERIES OF EVENTS WILL
RESULT IN INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 135 PM EDT MONDAY...
HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST THAT IMPACT THE
FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. FIRST...PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF THE REGION IS ALLOWING THE
TEMPERATURE TO REACH TO WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURES ALREADY. CLOUDS ARE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...BUT
THEY WILL NOT ARRIVE BEFORE THE IMPACT OF THE SUNSHINE HELPS
TEMPERATURES CLIMB AT LEAST ANOTHER 3 TO 5 DEGREES. AS SUCH...HAVE
INCREASED FORECAST HIGHS BY ROUGHLY THIS MUCH ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION. SECONDLY...THE APPROACHING LIGHT PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY
IN SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA IS ON TRACK TO ENTER THE REGION AS
CURRENTLY FORECAST. HOWEVER...BOTH THE HRRR AND RNK WRK ARW
SOLUTIONS...AND CURRENT REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS...SUGGEST A BIT MORE
OF A BREAK BETWEEN THIS FIRST WAVE...AND THE SECOND ONE THAT IS
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE THIS EVENING. AS SUCH...HAVE ATTEMPTED TO
DEPICT THIS PATTERN WITHIN THE HOURLY NDFD POP AND WEATHER GRIDS
DURING THIS TIME FRAME. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANCES AT THIS TIME.
AS OF 1045 AM EDT MONDAY...
ALL FROST/FREEZE PRODUCTS HAVE EXPIRED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY IS SHOWING A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...UPSTREAM RADARS SHOW A BAND OF PCPN
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER TROF MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN US. MESO MODELS
SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD GRASP OF THE SITUATION AND BASED ON
THIS...WILL BUMP TIMING OF POPS UP A COUPLE OF HOURS TO REFLECT
EXPECTED TRENDS. OTHER PARAMETERS ARE ON TRACK WITH CURRENT GRID
SET SO WILL FRESHEN WITH CURRENT DATA AND MAKE ONLY MINOR TREND
ADJUSTMENTS.
.PREVIOUS AFD...
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE QUICKLY MELTING AWAY ANY FROST AFTER
SUNRISE. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL START TO INCREASE AROUND NOON...AND
BE NEAR 10 MPH AT MOST LOCATIONS BY THE AFTERNOON. HIGH LEVEL
CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE INTO THIS AFTERNOON FROM WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH.
LEANED HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON CLOSE TO THE ADJMETBC
WITH READINGS FROM THE MID 50S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE
UPPER 60S IN THE PIEDMONT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS TONIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AS
ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES ALONG THE APPALACHIAN
CHAIN IN ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT. THE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL MAKE FOR WARMER OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S IN MOST
LOCATIONS...ALTHOUGH A FEW OF THE HIGHER RIDGES MAY REMAIN IN THE
LOWER 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY...
FOCUS THROUGH THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON A SLOW MOVING
CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL BE
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...MEANDERING TOWARD THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION WED-THU. AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF MODEL RUNS TAKING
THE CENTER OF THIS SYSTEM FURTHER NORTH...THE LATEST MODEL RUNS
HAVE TRENDED FURTHER SOUTH ONCE AGAIN...BUT REMAINING FAR ENOUGH
EAST THAT IT WILL STILL LEAVE THE CWA ON THE DRIER SOUTHWEST SIDE
OF THE SYSTEM. THE PRIMARY...LEADING WAVE AND ASSOCIATED LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WILL TRACK FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT...THEN TUE INTO EARLY WED...THE UPPER LOW WILL DIVE TO ITS
SOUTHERN MOST POSITION...TOWARD EAST CENTRAL VA. IN SO DOING...THE
NEXT LOBE OF PVA WILL WILL TRACK FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION AND RESULT IN A SLIGHT UPTICK IN RAIN SHOWER COVERAGE.
OTHERWISE...MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY CYCLONIC
FLOW...ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...SCT -SHRA...MAINLY MOUNTAINS AND
AREAS NORTH OF U.S. 460. THE BEST OVERALL COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD COME WITH THIS
AFOREMENTIONED LOBE OF PVA AS THE UPPER LOW ROTATES TO A POSITION
JUST OFF THE DELMARVA BY WED EVENING. TOTAL QPF THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL RANGE FROM ABOUT 1/3 INCH NORTHERN GREENBRIER COUNTY TO TRACE
AMOUNTS AT BEST ACROSS MOST OF THE NC AND VA PIEDMONT COUNTIES.
THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA WILL SEE LESS THAN 1/10 INCH OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE ENTIRE EVENT. SLOW IMPROVEMENT CAN BE
EXPECTED THU AS THE UPPER LOW ROTATES BACK TOWARD NEW
ENGLAND...ALLOWING DRIER AIR FROM THE MIDWEST TO BEGIN TO SPREAD
INTO WESTERN AREAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE COOL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ABUNDANT
CLOUD COVER AND 850MB TEMPS HOVERING IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGIT
CENTIGRADE RANGE. THERE IS A POCKET OF NEAR 0C 850MB TEMPS ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW THAT SETTLES DOWN OVER THE WESTERN PART
OF THE CWA EARLY THU...BUT THE CHANCE OF PCPN AT THAT TIME IN
THAT REGION IS NEAR ZERO...SO NO CONCERNS WITH WINTER
PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THIS EVENT...EVEN AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
WE MAY NEED TO ENTERTAIN FROST/FREEZE ADVISORIES LATE IN THE WEEK
ONCE AGAIN...BUT AGAIN APPEARS TO BE A MARGINAL SITUATION.
USED A MODEL BLEND OF MAX/MIN TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...WITH MIN TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT MONDAY...
THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY LIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION FRI-
SAT AS A BROAD UPPER RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. INTO THE
EASTERN U.S. THIS UPPER RIDGE WILL EFFECTIVELY SHUT OFF ALL
GULF MOISTURE FROM THE REGION FOR SEVERAL DAYS AS WELL AS LOCKING
ANY REALLY COLD AIR WELL NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER. A
WEAK...DRY UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE
REGION FRI-SAT...WHICH AT THIS POINT APPEARS TO DO LITTLE MORE
THAN BRING A FEW MID/HIGH CLOUDS. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT WILL THEN DOMINATE FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS FOR A CHANGE ALONG WITH SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES...LOWS IN THE 40S AND HIGHS IN THE 60S WEST AND 70S
EAST. SHOULD BE A BEAUTIFUL WEEKEND FOR THE ENTIRE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT MONDAY...
TAF PERIOD WILL START OFF GOOD ENOUGH WITH VFR FOR ALL SITES.
HOWEVER...RADAR SHOWS A BAND OF PCPN HEADING IN FROM THE WEST
ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER
TROF MOVING INTO THE ERN US. SITES MOST AFFECTED BY THE PCPN
WILL BE FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WEST. UPSTREAM LOCATIONS ALSO DO
NOT SHOW VERY LOW CIGS WITH THIS PCPN. WILL TIME THE BAND OF
PCPN WEST TO EAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND KEEP CIGS VFR WITH A
TEMPO TO MVFR FOR VSBY WITH SHOWERS FROM THE RIDGE WEST.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LAGS A BIT SO CIGS LOOK TO STAY UP THROUGH
EARLY TONIGHT. FLOW IS A BIT LAZY IN SWINGING AROUND TO A GOOD
NWLY UPSLOPE DIRECTION AND THIS LOOKS TO PREVENT KBLF FROM HAVING
A SOLID IFR CIG SET IN. SHOULD BE ENOUGH CLOUDS AND ENOUGH OF A
LIGHT WIND TO KEEP THINGS MIXED AND PREVENT SIGNIFICANT OBVIS
FROM SETTING UP. ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL SWING
THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT...BUT THE BEST SHOT LOOKS TO HOLD
OFF UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD WHEN DIURNAL HEATING AND
A BETTER NW UPSLOPE FETCH WILL HELP GET SHOWERS AND LOWER CIGS
GOING WEST OF THE RIDGE.
WINDS MAY BE A BIT GUSTY EARLY IN THE PERIOD...THEN AGAIN VERY
LATE IN THE PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING AND
DEEPEN INTO A NEARLY STATIONARY CLOSED LOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION BY WEDNESDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE SLOW MOVEMENT NORTHEAST
THROUGH THURSDAY. FOR OUR REGION...THE MAIN IMPACT WITH BE A
PERSISTENT NORTHWEST GUSTY WIND AND SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS THAT
WILL IMPACT PRIMARILY THE PREFERRED UPSLOPE REGION OF SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA. MVFR CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE COMMON ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT FROM ROA TO LYH TO DAN
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE
PERSISTENT TROUGH WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AND LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE
CLOUDS IN WEST WILL LIKELY BE REPLACED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BY
FRIDAY OR SATURDAY...FOR DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...DS/KK/MBS
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...NF/RAB
AVIATION...MBS