Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 10/19/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
441 PM PDT SAT OCT 18 2014
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY BEFORE A
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA MONDAY. LOW CLOUDS
AND PATCHY FOG WILL RETURN TO THE COAST AND VALLEYS TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY. LOOK FOR A CHANCE OF RAIN MONDAY ESPECIALLY FROM THE
SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS NORTHWARD. THIS WEAK SYSTEM SHOULD BE FAST
MOVING WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING BY MIDWEEK. WARMER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 01:34 PM PDT SATURDAY...BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
HAS TURNED ONSHORE AND PATCHY LOW CLOUDS OFF THE COAST SHOULD
BEGIN TO FILL IN NEAR THE COAST AFTER DARK AS THE AIRMASS COOLS.
STRATUS WILL DEVELOP AND SPREAD INLAND TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING
PER HRRR AND NAM GUIDANCE AS A SHORT WAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
AREA. THE ALREADY HIGH DEW POINTS SUPPORT THE HRRR AND NAM
SOLUTIONS.
THE MARINE LAYER HAS MIXED OUT TODAY...BUT WILL REDEVELOP WEAKLY
AND SHOULD BE VARIABLE BETWEEN 1000 AND 2000 FEET TONIGHT. SHOULD
HAVE A DEEPER MARINE LAYER TO THE NORTH WITH FASTER RETURN OF
STRATUS OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST AND INTO
THE SALINAS VALLEY LATER TONIGHT WITH SOME LOCAL DRIZZLE.
STRATUS SHOULD BE SLOW TO CLEAR FROM THE BAY AREA AND SURROUNDINGS
SUNDAY WITH A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND WEAK ONSHORE FLOW. MAY
ACTUALLY SEE MORE SUNSHINE IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA THAN THE NORTH.
STRATUS WILL PUSH WELL INLAND SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE MARINE LAYER
WILL DEEPEN AND MIX OUT BY MONDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE COAST. BEST CHANCE FOR COASTAL DRIZZLE OCCURS
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW.
GFS AND NAM IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT SHOWING A FAST MOVING POTENT
VORT MAX WITH PV TROF THAT SHOULD HOLD THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TOGETHER AT LEAST INTO THE NORTH BAY. FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE BAY
AREA EXPECTED TOWARD MIDDAY MONDAY...THEN THE BOUNDARY WEAKENS
RAPIDLY AS UPPER SUPPORT SHEARS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. RAINFALL
WILL BE GREATEST IN THE NORTH BAY AND TAPER RAPIDLY TO THE SOUTH.
THIS APPEARS TO BE ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM...BUT HAS ENOUGH DYNAMICS
TO SQUEEZE OUT A LITTLE PRECIPITATION.
A COOL AND FAIRLY MOIST WELL MIXED AIRMASS WILL RESIDE OVER THE
AREA TUESDAY AS THE TROF MOVES INLAND. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE INTERIOR WEST FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND
EXPECT A WARMING AND DRYING TREND FOR THE CENTRAL COAST.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 5:00 PM PDT SATURDAY...SKIES CLEAR OVER THE
AREA BUT THERE IS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT WILL ALLOW A
MARINE INVERSION TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER VFR CONDITIONS
WILL LAST THROUGH THE AIRPORT EVENING RUSH. LATEST NAM AND GFS
MODELS INDICATE CIGS LINGERING OVER SFO AND OAK UNTIL LATE IN THE
DAY SUNDAY.
VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR AFTER 10Z.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS 04Z.
IFR CIGS AND VSBYS BY 12Z.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 10:24 AM PDT SATURDAY...WINDS WILL SWITCH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY BY THE EVENING. ANOTHER FRONT WILL ARRIVE MONDAY
WITH WINDS SWITCHING BACK TO SOUTHERLY BY SUNDAY NIGHT. A LARGE
NORTHWESTERLY SWELL GENERATED BY A STORM IN THE GULF OF ALASKA
WILL ARRIVE AT THE COAST LATE SUNDAY WITH LONG PERIOD FORERUNNERS
ARRIVING SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE LARGER WAVES ARRIVING MONDAY.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TNGT...NONE.
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: KBB
AVIATION: W PI
MARINE: SIMS
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
830 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014
UPDATE...
12Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A BENIGN
WEATHER PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND
FLORIDA PENINSULA. SHORTWAVE ENERGY HAS RAPIDLY PIVOTED UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD LEAVING THE DEEP SOUTH UNDER A LARGE SCALE ZONAL
FLOW PATTERN. THIS ZONAL FLOW WILL HOLD THROUGH TONIGHT. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL AMPLIFY TO THE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEY...AND THEN OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS ENERGY WILL PUSH ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT DOWN
INTO THE PENINSULA FOR SUNDAY...HOWEVER A VERY DRY ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN WILL KEEP THIS A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH VIRTUALLY NOT
CHANCE OF ANY ASSOCIATED RAIN.
CURRENTLY...WE FIND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO AND IN FIRM CONTROL OF OUR LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT.
THIS NEARBY RIDGE WILL PROVIDE A WEAK GRADIENT AND LIGHT WINDS
THROUGH THE DAY.
JUST GOT THE 17/12Z KTBW SOUNDING PROFILE INTO OUR SYSTEMS AND THE
COLUMN CONTINUES TO DRY OUT AND IS NOW SHOWING A VERY IMPRESSIVE LOW
PW VALUE OF 0.47"...WITH LARGE DEWPOINT DEPRESSION THROUGH THE
EXTENT OF THE COLUMN. IT IS GOING TO BE DIFFICULT TO EVEN SEE A FEW
SHALLOW CU DEVELOP TODAY GIVEN THE CURRENT PROFILE.
VERY LITTLE ELSE TO TALK ABOUT WITH THIS PATTERN. WITH LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF LARGE SCALE FORCING AND THE DRYNESS OF THE COLUMN...THE
FORECAST WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SEASONABLE WITH MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS.
HAVE A GREAT REST OF YOUR FRIDAY AND ENJOY THE PLEASANT WEATHER THIS
WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITION WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
N/NW FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE WATERS. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE E/NE FOR
SUNDAY AND THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE IS
REINFORCED FROM THE NORTH. NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 81 63 83 67 / 0 0 0 0
FMY 83 63 85 64 / 0 0 0 0
GIF 82 61 85 64 / 0 0 0 0
SRQ 81 61 83 63 / 0 0 0 0
BKV 82 49 84 56 / 0 0 0 0
SPG 80 68 83 72 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE/AVIATION...MROCZKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
958 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014
.DISCUSSION...
300 PM CDT
FORECAST CONCERNS LIE AROUND FROSTY CONDITIONS FOR TONIGHT...ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...AND POSSIBLY
SOME LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS INTO EARLY TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL
WARMUP.
THE SHARP UPPER TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS MORNINGS LIGHT RAIN IS
CONTINUING ITS NOSE-DIVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. THERE
IS STILL PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER OVER THE LAKE. WE ARE STARTING TO SEE
SOME CLOUD BREAKS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN AND A
CORRESPONDING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION/RAPID HEIGHT RISES CONTINUE TO
SQUASH THE DEEPER MOISTURE. THE UPPER RIDGE IN THE PLAINS WILL
DAMPEN AS IT SPREADS EAST TONIGHT...BUT WITH SPRAWLING SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TRANSITING THE REGION TONIGHT...EXPECT BETTER CLEARING GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TO ALLOW FOR CLEARING TO CONTINUE FOR
TEMPERATURES TO DROP RATHER QUICKLY. OUR NEXT SYSTEM IS ALREADY
SPREADING EAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
THIS AFTERNOON...AND WE WILL LIKELY SEE SOME OF THE HIGH CLOUDINESS
ASSOCIATED WITH IT SPREADING INTO OUR AREA LATER TONIGHT WHICH
SHOULDN`T DO TOO MUCH TO SLOW THE COOLING TONIGHT. DO NOT SEE ANY
GUIDANCE TO SUGGEST A WIDESPREAD FREEZE IN SPITE OF A FEW OUTLYING
LOCATIONS POSSIBLY TAGGING THE FREEZING MARK THIS EVENING AS
COLDER DEWPOINTS SPREAD SOUTH...SO WILL MAKE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
TEMPS TONIGHT OR THE FROST ADVISORY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
CLOUDS WILL HANG ON IN NW INDIANA THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT BEFORE
BEGINNING TO CLEAR WHICH WILL SLOW THE COOL DOWN AND LIMIT FROST
POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE LAKE. BUT WE ARE SEEING
PRETTY GOOD CLEARING OF THE LAKE CLOUDS FARTHER UPSTREAM...AND
GIVEN THE LOW STARTING POINT AND AT LEAST GAPS IN THE CLOUDS
EXPECTED THAT OUTLYING AREAS IN NW INDY ALSO WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE
TO SOME FROST...THOUGH WITH A BIT LOWER CONFIDENCE THEN IN
ILLNOIS. ADDITIONALLY...THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG IN RIVER
VALLEYS LATE TONIGHT AS WELL.
SUNDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL
BEGIN TO TAKE AIM AT THE REGION. IT WILL BE A COOL START TO THE DAY
AND EXPECT INCREASING CLOUD COVER AS THE DAY GOES ON WHICH WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S AT BEST. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...THE
SYSTEM WILL BE TAKING A SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TRACK TO TODAY`S THOUGH IT
IS NOT QUITE AS SHARP. BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT NEARS BRINGING A ANOTHER SHOT OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.
GUIDANCE IS MIXED AS TO THE DEGREE AT WHICH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
TURNS NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY...BUT THERE LOOKS TO BE SOME LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS LINGERING INTO EARLY TUESDAY...POSSIBLY BACK TO
THE ILLINOIS SIDE OF LAKE MICHIGAN.
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK IS STILL LOOKING FAIRLY NICE WITH MILD
AND DRY CONDITIONS THERE IS A PACIFIC SYSTEM THAT WILL ATTEMPT TO
PROGRESS THROUGH THE RIDGE BUT MODELS ARE SPLITTY WITH THIS ONE
GENERALLY JUST BRINGING SOME CLOUDS WITH IT AT THIS POINT.
KMD
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 03Z...
* FEW-SCT CLOUDS 025-030 NEAR/EAST OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH LATE
EVENING.
* SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 18-20 KT BY MID AFTERNOON SUNDAY.
MDB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 03Z...
THE BULK OF THE STRATUS IS TO THE SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS WITH GYY
EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT SHORTLY. A NARROW RIBBON OF MVFR CLOUDS
HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE ILLINOIS SHORELINE FROM CHICAGO SOUTH AND
MAY LINGER THROUGH LATE EVENING...POTENTIALLY BECOMING BKN AT
TIMES AT GYY. OTHERWISE...HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS WILL INCREASE WITH A
FAIR AMOUNT OF IT UPSTREAM. THERE DOES LOOK TO BE A GAP IN
COVERAGE AFTER 7-8Z WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SOME SHALLOW FOG
DEVELOPMENT AT RFD/DPA AND POSSIBLY GYY...BUT THE GAP WILL BE
SHORT LIVED SO WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED...AND
SHALLOW FOG MAY BE LIMITED AS WELL.
FROM 00Z...
STRATUS IS FINALLY STARTING TO CLEAR THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS
EVENING THOUGH GYY WILL LIKELY HANG ON TO LOWER END VFR STRATUS
INTO THE OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SPREADING OVERHEAD SO
WINDS WILL DROP OFF IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND BECOME CALM OR LIGHT
AND VARIABLE THEN TURN SOUTHWESTERLY SUNDAY MORNING. AM A LITTLE
CONCERNED ABOUT SHALLOW FOG DEVELOPMENT AT RFD/DPA AND TO SOME
EXTENT GYY ONCE THE CLOUDS SCATTER. DEWPOINTS ARE ALREADY FAIRLY
LOW AND IT APPEARS THAT DEW/FROST DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR LIMITING
ANY FOG. WILL INCLUDE SHALLOW FOG AT RFD/DPA/GYY FOR NOW. WIND
SPEEDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST WITH
GUSTS TO 18-20 KT DEVELOPING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SPEEDS SHOULD
REMAIN ELEVATED SUNDAY EVENING BUT GUST FREQUENCY SHOULD BE
REDUCED. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING
INCREASED MID CLOUD COVER DURING THE EVENING...POSSIBLY LOWERING
TO LOW END VFR OVERNIGHT.
MDB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 03Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL FORECAST ELEMENTS.
MDB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
MONDAY...CHANCE SHRA. SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOMING NORTH.
TUESDAY...DRY/VFR. NORTHEAST WINDS.
WEDNESDAY...DRY/VFR. EAST WINDS.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DRY/VFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS.
MDB
&&
.MARINE...
111 PM CDT
IN THE NEAR TERM...HAVE ALLOWED GALE WARNING FOR THE LAKE MICHIGAN
OPEN WATERS TO EXPIRE AT 1 PM CDT...AS ISALLOBARIC (PRESSURE CHANGE)
GRADIENT HAS WEAKENED AND OBSERVED GUSTS HAVE EASED INTO THE 25-30
KT RANGE OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON
AND THEN MORE QUICKLY THIS EVENING/TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE FROM
WESTERN ONTARIO TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS MOVES STEADILY EAST-SOUTHEAST
TO THE WESTERN LAKES AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS
WILL RESULT IN 30 KT NORTH WINDS DIMINISHING QUICKLY THIS EVENING...
AND BACKING TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST BY MORNING AS THE SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS PASSES. CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HEADLINES FOR THE IL
NEARSHORE WATERS WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 4 AM CDT...WITH THE
IN WATERS CONTINUING THROUGH 10 AM CDT SUNDAY MORNING AS WAVES
SLOWLY SUBSIDE AFTER THIS PERIOD OF STRONG NORTHERLY FETCH.
LIGHT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE SHORT
LIVED HOWEVER...AS THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE CURRENT WEATHER
PATTERN CONTINUES WITH ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPING OVER CANADA AND MOVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PICK UP INTO THE 20-25 KT RANGE PERHAPS WITH A
FEW GUSTS TO 30 KT AGAIN SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF THIS LOW AND TRAILING
COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
WINDS SHIFT NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH A PERIOD OF 25 KTS LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS ANOTHER HIGH SPREADS ACROSS ONTARIO AND
EVENTUALLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
RATZER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...FROST ADVISORY...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-
ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022-
ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039...3 AM SUNDAY TO 8 AM SUNDAY.
IN...FROST ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011...4 AM SUNDAY TO 8
AM SUNDAY.
FROST ADVISORY...INZ019...3 AM SUNDAY TO 8 AM SUNDAY.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 4 AM SUNDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 10 AM SUNDAY.
&&
$$
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[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
911 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 910 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014
Clouds have been slow to clear out, but still show a steady
progress. Main concern is that any clouds that linger for a
significant amount of time after midnight could prevent those
areas from seeing any frost conditions. Our frost advisory
includes all of our counties. The latest HRRR high res model is
catching on to the slower clearing of clouds, and shows areas east
of I-57 and south of Champaign and Vermilion counties seeing
clouds persist as late as 11z/6am. For now will not cancel the
frost advisory for those areas, but will bring low temps up a
degree or two to account for less time under clear skies.
Main updates this evening were to the sky grids, and low temps in
the east. The remainder of the forecast looked on track. A
seasonable day is on tap for Sunday, under mostly sunny skies with
highs around 60, and southwest winds around 10 mph.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014
Short-wave trough currently over central Illinois will drop
southward into the Ohio River Valley by early this evening, allowing
skies to clear from northwest to southeast across the area. 1730z
visible satellite imagery is already showing clearing in the wake of
the wave across central/northern Wisconsin into northern Iowa.
Based on satellite timing tools and the latest run of the HRRR,
think skies will clear across the far NW KILX CWA around Galesburg
and Peoria late this afternoon, then across the remainder of the
area by early to mid-evening. With clear skies and light winds
expected, a cold and frosty night will be on tap. Low temperatures
will bottom out in the middle 30s across the board, allowing the
formation of frost. As a result, Frost Advisory is now in effect
for the entire CWA.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014
Only main concern this forecast package, beyond tonight, is the
chance of pcpn Sunday night through Monday. All models are
consistent with bringing a cold front down through the area
beginning late Sunday night and continuing through Monday morning.
This front will not have much moisture to work with, given the large
area of high pressure that will block any moisture from the gulf
from getting into the midwest. However, will still have a low
chance, around 30pct, pops in the forecast, beginning late Sun night
and continuing through Monday morning. Models seem a little faster
than yesterday, so believe pcpn could be out of the area by Monday
afternoon. However, will keep a slight chance pops in the grids in
the southeast...though it will not be seen in the wording.
Remainder of the forecast through the week and into the weekend will
be dry and pleasant. High pressure will build into the region on the
surface with 500mb ridging building in from the west. This will
effectively keep the storm track to the north through the remainder
of the forecast period, and possibly longer.
Temps will warm some tomorrow and Monday, but then cool back down to
below normal through remainder of the forecast. Temps will gradually
warm next week, reaching back to around normal by next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014
Clouds continue to hover near the MVFR/VFR cross-over height of 3k
FT, with complete coverage across all our terminal sites. The
northern edge of the clouds is steadily approaching our northern
forecast area, albeit a little slower than previous forecasts.
Timing tools show clouds clearing about 2-3 hours later than
earlier forecasts. Therefore, have delayed clearing at PIA until
01z, BMI/SPI at 02z, and DEC/CMI at 04z. After that, high pressure
will build into the region overnight, providing clear skies and
light/variable winds. As the high begins to shift off to the east,
a light SW return flow will develop by Sunday morning. Clear
skies and southwest winds at 10kt or less will prevail through the
day on Sunday.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Sunday FOR ILZ027>031-
036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Shimon
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Auten
AVIATION...Shimon
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
637 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING LARGE 1025+ MB RIDGE UPSTREAM
ACRS THE EASTERN PLAINS UP INTO THE NORTHWESTERN GRT LKS. ALOFT
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WAS INDICATING VIGOROUS VORT MAX ROLLING
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF EAST CENTRAL IL TOWARD SOUTHEAST INDIANA. TOP-
DOWN DRYING AND ENHANCED SUBSIDENCE ERODING STRATOCU DECK IN PLACE
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...BUT PROCESS OCCURRING SLOWER THAN
EARLIER ANTICIPATED. BUT EXTRAPOLATING CURRENT CLEARING TRENDS ON
VIS SATELLITE LOOP SUGGEST THE LATEST RAP HANDLING OF CLEARING
LINE REACHING JUST EAST OF THE MS RVR BY 23Z ON TRACK OR EVEN A
TOUCH SLOW. EXPECT LATE AFTERNOON HIGHS WHERE CLEARING AND SOME
INSOLATION CAN OCCUR.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014
TONIGHT...INCOMING RIDGE ON TRACK ALONG WITH CLEARING AND SFC WIND
DECOUPLE FOR A CLEAR AND CHILLY NIGHT. WILL KEEP ONGOING FROST
ADVISORY IN PLACE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I80 ON THE IL SIDE OF THE MS
RVR...BUT RACE WILL BE ON WITH PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE HIGH
PRESSURE ALLOWING LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ON IT/S WESTERN FLANK
BEFORE SUNRISE SUNDAY. BUT SOUTHEASTERLY PUSH OF MAIN RIDGE CENTER
WILL ALLOW THE LIGHT/CALM SFC WIND REGIME TO HANG ON LONGEST IN
ONGOING ADVISORY/CLOSEST TO CENTER...SO WILL LET RIDE. COLDEST TEMPS
OF LOWER 30S IN LOWER SFC DPT FIELDS OF THE NORTHEASTERN CWA....BUT
BULK OF THE CWA SHOULD RANGE IN THE MID 30S EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHWEST
FCST AREA WHERE HOPEFULLY THE RETURN FLOW MENTIONED ABOVE WILL
PREVENT TEMPS FROM DIPPING OUT OF THE UPPER 30S.
SUNDAY...INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LLVL RETURN FLOW ALONG WITH
WARM AIR ADVECTION TO BOOST TEMPS IN MOST OF THE CWA INTO THE LOW
TO MID 60S...ALTHOUGH THE NORTHEASTER THIRD COULD BE HELD DOWN IN
THE UPPER 50S. SOME PASSING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON WILL
TEMPER THE WARM UP POTENTIAL SOME...OTHERWISE SOME AREAS COULD
GET INTO THE UPPER 60S OR NEAR 70 DEGREES.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014
LONG TERM ENSEMBLE MODELS SHOW QUIET WEATHER WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE THEME DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60 WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA LATE ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WITH THE BEST
DYNAMICS AND FORCING TO OUR NORTH.. AND LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH.. THIS FRONT WILL MAINLY RESULT IN A WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST. STARTING MONDAY.. A LARGE LONG WAVE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD
OVER THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY AND REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH MID
WEEK. ON THURSDAY.. THE ENSEMBLE MODELS PROG AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TO CUT THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE AND MOVE SOUTHWEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY DRY WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT A
FEW SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE. BY NEXT WEEKEND..A MORE FLATTENED
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER MUCH OF THE NATION. THIS
RIDGE ALONG WITH CONTINUED MODERATION OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PRODUCE WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO PERHAPS
70 DEGREES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 634 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014
MVFR CLOUD DECK CONTINUES TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST AND WILL BE COMPLETELY
CLEAR OF KBRL AND KMLI BY 01Z. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
SURFACE WINDS AT ALL AREA TAF SITES THROUGH SUNRISE THEN WINDS
INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST SUNDAY.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR BUREAU-HANCOCK-
HENDERSON-HENRY IL-MCDONOUGH-MERCER-PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-
WARREN.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...KUHL
AVIATION...DMD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
431 PM MDT FRI OCT 17 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 124 PM MDT FRI OCT 17 2014
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW NW FLOW ACROSS
THE PLAINS WITH A RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST US. A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH IS MOVING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH HIGH CLOUD
COVER STREAMING NORTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS OUR CWA.
A RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH WEST-
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER OUR CWA AND ANY WEAK LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH REMAINING WELL SOUTH OF THE CWA. THIS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BRING INCREASING HIGH CLOUD COVER AND
INCREASING WINDS. AS THE FLOW SHIFTS TO MORE OF A WESTERLY
DIRECTION ACROSS THE ROCKIES A LEE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DEEPEN
WHICH WILL RESULT IN A TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
OUR CWA AND BREEZY WINDS DURING THE DAY. WE WILL ALSO START TO SE
A SLIGHT MODERATION IN THE AIR MASS OVER THE WESTERN CWA...WHICH
MAY ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPS SATURDAY TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 70S IN
THE WEST...THOUGH MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN SEASONAL WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID-UPPER 60S.
MODELS ARE ADVERTISING TD RECOVERY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AND ELEVATED
INVERSION LIMITING MIXING SO WE SHOULD SEE RH VALUES REMAIN WELL
ABOVE RED FLAG CRITERIA. SO DESPITE WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH RED
FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 PM MDT FRI OCT 17 2014
A LARGE RIDGE WILL BE AMPLIFYING ALOFT OVER THE ROCKIES AND HIGH
PLAINS REGION ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
ALSO IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION DURING THIS
TIME. A SURFACE LEE TROUGH WILL BE DEEPENING OVER THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE
UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS AND A TROUGH OF LOWER
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE SURFACE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WHILE DAYTIME
HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ON
THURSDAY FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT WHEN DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE
COOLER...BUT STILL NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.
MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE ECMWF
DEEPENING A CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY FRIDAY INSTEAD
OF MOVING IT EAST AS AN OPEN TROUGH AS THE GFS DOES. EITHER
WAY...IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE AT LEAST WEAK UPPER RIDGING OVER
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT
WEEKEND FOR MORE DRY CONDITIONS AND WARM TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 430 PM MDT FRI OCT 17 2014
KGLD AND KMCK...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. GENERALLY MID AND UPPER
CLOUDS EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS.
SURFACE HIGH CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS
FORECAST TO SLIDE EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENING ALONG THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE. THIS WILL
INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA WITH
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS GUSTING FROM 15Z-23Z AT KGLD...PEAKING
AROUND 25KTS IN THE 18Z-22Z TIMEFRAME. OTHERWISE LGT/VRB WINDS AT
TAF ISSUANCE EXPECTED TO VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 09Z AND
CONTINUING THROUGH 14Z.
FOR KMCK LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND AT TAF ISSUANCE EXPECTED TO BECOME
LIGHT FROM THE EAST AROUND 11Z THEN SOUTHEAST NEAR 10KTS BY 16Z.
SOME GUSTINESS TO 20KTS EXPECTED AROUND 21Z-22Z.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
301 PM MDT FRI OCT 17 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 124 PM MDT FRI OCT 17 2014
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW NW FLOW ACROSS
THE PLAINS WITH A RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST US. A SHORT WAVE
TROUGHIS MOVING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH HIGH CLOUD
COVER STREAMING NORTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS OUR CWA.
A RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH WEST-
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER OUR CWA AND ANY WEAK LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH REMAINING WELL SOUTH OF THE CWA. THIS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BRING INCREASING HIGH CLOUD COVER AND
INCREASING WINDS. AS THE FLOW SHIFTS TO MORE OF A WESTERLY
DIRECTION ACROSS THE ROCKIES A LEE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DEEPEN
WHICH WILL RESULT IN A TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
OUR CWA AND BREEZY WINDS DURING THE DAY. WE WILL ALSO START TO SE
A SLIGHT MODERATION IN THE AIR MASS OVER THE WESTERN CWA...WHICH
MAY ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPS SATURDAY TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 70S IN
THE WEST...THOUGH MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN SEASONAL WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID-UPPER 60S.
MODELS ARE ADVERTISING TD RECOVERY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AND ELEVATED
INVERSION LIMITING MIXING SO WE SHOULD SEE RH VALUES REMAIN WELL
ABOVE RED FLAG CRITERIA. SO DESPITE WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH RED
FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 PM MDT FRI OCT 17 2014
A LARGE RIDGE WILL BE AMPLIFYING ALOFT OVER THE ROCKIES AND HIGH
PLAINS REGION ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
ALSO IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION DURING THIS
TIME. A SURFACE LEE TROUGH WILL BE DEEPENING OVER THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE
UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS AND A TROUGH OF LOWER
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE SURFACE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WHILE DAYTIME
HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ON
THURSDAY FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT WHEN DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE
COOLER...BUT STILL NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.
MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE ECMWF
DEEPENING A CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY FRIDAY INSTEAD
OF MOVING IT EAST AS AN OPEN TROUGH AS THE GFS DOES. EITHER
WAY...IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE AT LEAST WEAK UPPER RIDGING OVER
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT
WEEKEND FOR MORE DRY CONDITIONS AND WARM TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1132 AM MDT FRI OCT 17 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH KGLD
AND KMCK. LIGHT WINDS 5-10KT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE
TAF PERIOD AT BOTH TERMINALS AS WEAK SURFACE GRADIENT LINGERS OVER
SW NEBRASKA AND NW KANSAS. LEE TROUGH OVER EASTERN COLORADO WILL
DEEPEN SATURDAY MORNING...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AND
INCREASING. GUSTY WINDS AROUND 20KT WILL DEVELOP AT KGLD AROUND
15KT. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 12KT AT KMCK.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
124 PM MDT FRI OCT 17 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 124 PM MDT FRI OCT 17 2014
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW NW FLOW ACROSS
THE PLAINS WITH A RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST US. A SHORTWAVETROUGH
IS MOVING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH HIGH CLOUD COVER
STREAMING NORTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS.
AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS OUR CWA.
A RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH WEST-
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER OUR CWA AND ANY WEAK LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH REMAINING WELL SOUTH OF THE CWA. THIS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BRING INCREASING HIGH CLOUD COVER AND
INCREASING WINDS. AS THE FLOW SHIFTS TO MORE OF A WESTERLY
DIRECTION ACROSS THE ROCKIES A LEE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DEEPEN
WHICH WILL RESULT IN A TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
OUR CWA AND BREEZY WINDS DURING THE DAY. WE WILL ALSO START TO SE
A SLIGHT MODERATION IN THE AIR MASS OVER THE WESTERN CWA...WHICH
MAY ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPS SATURDAY TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 70S IN
THE WEST...THOUGH MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN SEASONAL WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID-UPPER 60S.
MODELS ARE ADVERTISING TD RECOVERY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AND ELEVATED
INVERSION LIMITING MIXING SO WE SHOULD SEE RH VALUES REMAIN WELL
ABOVE RED FLAG CRITERIA. SO DESPITE WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH RED
FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 AM MDT FRI OCT 17 2014
A LARGE AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS
ON MONDAY...BRINGING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS TO THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE
LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AS WELL...FALLING TO THE
MID TO UPPER 40S.
THE NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE MID WEEK AS AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
SLIDE THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS. MODEL GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE COMING
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH POSITION OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO
DISSIPATE THURSDAY AFTER THE SURFACE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THERE
IS SOME SLIGHT INSTABILITY ALOFT WITH CAPE VALUES AROUND OR LESS
THAN 300 J/KG...SO THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED CHANCE FOR SOME
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OTHERWISE...THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE RAIN SHOWERS AS
MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FILTERS INTO
THE HIGH PLAINS REGION TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1132 AM MDT FRI OCT 17 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH KGLD
AND KMCK. LIGHT WINDS 5-10KT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE
TAF PERIOD AT BOTH TERMINALS AS WEAK SURFACE GRADIENT LINGERS OVER
SW NEBRASKA AND NW KANSAS. LEE TROUGH OVER EASTERN COLORADO WILL
DEEPEN SATURDAY MORNING...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AND
INCREASING. GUSTY WINDS AROUND 20KT WILL DEVELOP AT KGLD AROUND
15KT. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 12KT AT KMCK.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
944 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2014
.UPDATE...
Issued at 944 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014
Clouds have proven to be much more stubborn than expected. Noticed
that the 850mb and 925mb winds from the KVWX VAD wind profile are
now out of the north northeast, which could push the clouds back
to the south and west a bit late this evening. Beginning to wonder
if the clearing isn`t going to more from north to south rather
than the west to east that is currently advertised. The RAP seems
to have a decent clue with the cloud and temperature trends, so used it
as a guide for this update, which has the clouds eventually
clearing the east very late tonight.
Most places still likely to drop to near 40 by morning. Patchy
frost will be possible over a lot of the area, but the most likely
areas will be in a zone from Cape Girardeau to Carbondale, where
temperatures will be in the upper 30s the longest. Still don`t
feel like this will be a significant or widespread frost even in
that area.
UPDATE Issued at 640 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014
The AVIATION section has been updated for the 00Z TAF issuance.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 258 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014
Wvapor loop showed a fairly energetic mid level low over wcntrl IN
moving SE. Area of showers with this fast moving feature over IN
should stay east of our SW IN counties this afternoon. Meanwhile an
expansive area of cu/strato-cu continues to move SSE across our
CWFA. Clouds up across IA quickly dissipated. That gives us a
better indication of how to track the west edge, and what to do
with the progression of the clouds the rest of the day. The cloud
bank moving south across central sections of IL appears more than
diurnally driven. So it may take some time through the late
afternoon and evening to completely rid the clouds, especially east
of the Mississippi.
Otherwise, overnight, once it clears, and with calm winds, cannot
rule out patchy late night frost portions of southern IL, into
southwest IN. This is based on the possibility of reaching coolest
MET guidance numbers, which is what we went with. Even with that,
given soil temps, and marginal conditions, if it does form, it`d be
spotty, and most likely on elevated surfaces that can radiate
"heat" most efficiently. Could be more in the way of dew. No
products will be issued, but a patchy mention will be in the
grid/public forecast in the aforementioned areas. Could be patchy
ground type fog too some areas.
High pressure will move east of the area Sunday. Dry air mass means
little in the way of cloud cover. Sunday night should be dry for
the most part too. However between about 08z-12z Monday, the models
bring a band of moisture into our northern counties (SRN IL, SW
IN), ahead of a mid level trof and embedded PVA, that could result
in isolated light showers. Will carry that slight chance across
the rest of the CWFA through the morning, then end chances Monday
afternoon, though a few sprinkles may linger SE sections (WRN KY)
before the left over dwindling moisture departs. In most cases,
would probably trend dry (been flip flopping a bit on these slight
chances), but given the degree of forcing the models have shown in
the omega and QG fields, slights are warranted. Most areas will
not see much if anything. Dry weather Monday night with high
pressure returning.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 258 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014
Beyond Monday night`s cold frontal passage, an extremely uneventful
weather pattern is shaping up through the remainder of the week. To
start the period, an upper level ridge will be centered over the
Plains with a trough over the eastern U.S. Some lingering low
level moisture may result in scattered to broken stratocumulus on
Tuesday, especially in the northeastern 1/3 of our forecast area.
Beyond that, the upper level ridge is forecast to build east into
the Mississippi Valley through Thursday as the core of surface high
pressure gradually shifts south from the Great Lakes. Late in the
week, an approaching shortwave trough will be deflected to the south
as it runs into the ridge overhead. The resultant cut-off low that
parks itself over the Gulf Coast States next weekend will act to
keep any precipitation potential south of the immediate area.
Temperatures through the period will be near seasonable. Highs will
range through the 60s each day, but may close in on the 70 degree
mark by the weekend. Lows through the period will be in the 40s.
Guidance would suggest little concern for frost formation during
this time. However, Wednesday night may be an exception as we
currently have lows forecast near 40. If this proves to be a few
degrees too warm, then we may need to consider the addition of at
least patchy frost in later forecasts.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 640 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014
All guidance in agreement in pushing 4-5kft overcast deck east of
KEVV and KOWB around 03Z. Meanwhile, winds are expected to taper
off to light and variable throughout the region by late evening.
Cannot rule out some patchy fog development at all sites
overnight, especially toward morning. As is typically the case,
hit it the hardest at KCGI. A light south southwest wind will
eventually mix down at all sites by midday Sunday. Some increase
in high clouds is expected by the end of the period.
The visibility sensor at KCGI is malfunctioning and consistently
reporting significant reduction to visibility when there is none.
With the tower being unmanned until sometime Sunday, will attempt
to have the sensor report processing turned off. No data is better
than misleading data.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DRS
AVIATION...DRS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1025 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1024 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014
MADE ONE LAST UPDATE TO THE FORECAST BEFORE THE END OF THE SHIFT.
BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...AND THE LATEST HRRR MODEL
DATA...ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS AND PATCHES OF DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH BETWEEN 4 AND 5Z TONIGHT. THE NEW
UPDATE WILL NO LONGER HAVE EVENING WORDING AND WILL FEATURE ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 732 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014
A MINOR UPDATE TO THE FORECAST WAS REQUIRED THIS EVENING. AN AREA OF
RAIN SHOWERS THAT INITIALLY FORMED OVER CENTRAL INDIANA HAS BECOME
QUITE ROBUST AND IS NOW MAKING ITS WAY INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. THESE
RAIN SHOWERS HAVE BECOME WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A SHORT TERM
INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE NEXT 3 OR 4 HOURS. THE
FORECAST UPDATE THAT IS ABOUT TO BE ISSUED WILL REFLECT THIS WITH 30
TO 50 POPS THROUGH 3Z. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST. THE RAIN SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY AROUND 9Z
TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG AND FROST WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT...WITH THE FROST AFFECTING OUR DEEPEST AND MOST SHELTERED
VALLEYS WHERE THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE EXPERIENCED TONIGHT.
THE FOG COULD FORM JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE DUE TO MOISTURE FROM RAIN THE
PAST FEW DAYS. THE MITIGATING FACTOR WITH THE FOG WILL BE THE COOL
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL LEAD INSTANCES OF FROST WHERE IT
GETS COLD ENOUGH. A ZONE UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED LATER IN THE SHIFT TO
GET RID OF STALE WORDING IN THE ZONES AND FOR ANY OTHER CHANGES THAT
MIGHT BE NECESSARY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 311 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY BRINGING WITH IT
LOTS OF CLOUDS AND SOME SPRINKLES. THERE IS A FAIRLY STRONG SHORT
WAVE OVER CENTRAL INDIANA THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS
EVENING THIS WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION THAN
WHAT WE ARE SEEING THIS AFTERNOON. DEPENDING OF HOW FAST THE SHORT
WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND HOW QUICKLY THE WIND DROPS OFF
TONIGHT...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY VALLEY FROST IN
THE WESTERN PORTION OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. TOMORROW NIGHT...THE CHANCES
FOR VALLEY FROST ARE A LITTLE HIGHER AS THE WINDS AND TEMPERATURES
LINE UP BETTER.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014
A PERSISTENT TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL BE THE HIGHLIGHT OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL AND
PROVIDING THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER FROM LATE
MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT INTO MID
WEEK...SO CONFIDENCE REMAINS FAIRLY GOOD THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
THE PERIOD WILL START AS MID LEVEL RIDGING IS DEPARTING TO THE EAST
REPLACED BY AN ADVANCING SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON
MONDAY. UNLIKE THE PAST FEW SYSTEMS...THIS TROUGH LOOKS TO BE MORE
MOISTURE STARVED...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER LEVELS. THUS...NOT AS
CONVINCED WE WILL SEE MUCH OUT OF THIS FEATURE. HOWEVER...ENOUGH MID
LEVEL MOISTURE IS THERE TO AT LEAST SUPPORT A ISOLATED SHOWER OR
SPRINKLE LATE MONDAY. A STRONGER VORT MAX WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY...TAKING AIM ON
EASTERN KENTUCKY. GIVEN THE MODELS TENDENCY THE LAST FEW SYSTEMS TO
DOWNPLAY THE STRENGTH OF THESE FEATURES...OPTED TO GO A BIT MORE
AGGRESSIVE ON THE POPS AS THE DEGREE OF FORCING ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW
FOR DECENT COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY HEADING INTO TUESDAY. BEST CHANCES
WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREAS...WITH SOUTHWEST
ZONES POSSIBLY STAYING DRY. THE INITIAL VORT MAX WILL CREATE AN UPPER
LEVEL CUT OFF LOW OVER THE EAST COAST...KEEPING THE AREA ON THE EDGE
OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WITH THE POTENTIAL OF
ADDITIONAL VORT MAXES DROPPING SOUTH ALONG THE EDGE OF THIS
TROUGH...THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR WEST ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL REACH. THUS...RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW. WHILE MODELS START
TO DIVERGE A BIT ON HOW QUICKLY THE TROUGH WILL DEPART BY
THURSDAY...THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT
WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. IT
DOES LOOK LIKE THE POTENTIAL FOR A GORGEOUS STRETCH OF FALL WEATHER
AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS RIDGING BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE
REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 732 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH 8 OR 9Z TONIGHT. THERE COULD BE TIMES AT THE TAF
SITES...PARTICULARLY JKL AND SJS...WHERE MVFR CONDITIONS MAY BE
EXPERIENCED DUE TO THE PRECIPITATION. LATER TONIGHT...THERE MAY EVEN
BE SOME MVFR FOG FORM AT JKL AND SJS WHERE TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY
JUST WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP FROST FROM FORMING. ANY FOG THAT DOES FORM
SHOULD BE GONE BY 14Z ON SUNDAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS ON TAP AFTER THAT.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...AR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
456 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH ON SATURDAY AND CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE WEST EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
435 PM UPDATE...LIGHTNING STRIKES SHOWING UP PER THE LATEST
LIGHTNING DETECTION. ALSO SEEING SOME ENHANCED ECHO TOPS ALONG
W/THE THREAT FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS. FREEZING LEVELS DROPPED TO 10K
FT. DECIDED TO ADD GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON W/ANY TSTMS. SHOWERS AND ANY REMAINING CONVECTION
SHOULD BE EAST OF THE CWA BY 8 PM PER THE LATEST HRRR 3KM MODEL
AND NAM12.
SEE AVIATION SECTION.
WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED PATCHY
FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
40S TO NEAR 50 AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S DOWNEAST.
A RATHER POTENT SHORT WAVE TROF IS FORECASTED TO CROSS THE REGION
LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING SHOWERS TO MUCH OF THE
REGION DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT ONE LAST UNSEASONABLY
MILD DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MILD WEATHER IS COMING TO AN END LATE THIS WEEKEND AND SOME
MUCH CHILLIER AIR IS COMING IN. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY EVENING WITH SOME SHOWERS LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTH,
ESPECIALLY UP IN THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY. COOLER AIR WILL THEN BEGIN
SPREADING IN FROM THE NORTH FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
ON SUNDAY WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. A WET SNOW
SHOWER IS EVEN POSSIBLE IN WESTERN ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1200 FT. GUSTY
WEST WINDS WILL THEN BRING BLUSTERY AND CHILLY CONDITIONS SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT DIPPING BELOW FREEZING
IN MANY SPOTS AND HIGHS MONDAY ONLY IN THE 40S NORTH AND NEAR 50
DOWNEAST. OTHERWISE, STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WILL KEEP NORTHERN AREAS
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH THE DOWNEAST REGION EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY
SUNNY ON SUNDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THERE WILL BE A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE ACROSS THE STATE. A LOW EXITING THE AREA TO THE EAST OVER
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...AND A NEW LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. BY TUESDAY EVENING THE LOW OVER THE
GREAT LAKE WILL MOVE TO THE COAST OF VIRGINIA...THE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST. WED MRNG THE LOW BEGINS TO MOVE
NORTH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE GFS HAS IT ALONG THE COAST
OF NJ...ECMWF ALONG THE COAST OF DELMARVA WITH A SECONDARY LOW SE
OF CAPE COD...THE GEM OFF THE ERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND. THE
DIFFERENCES IN THE LOW POSITIONS REFLECT THE DIFFERENCES IN THE
DEPICTION OF THE EXTEND TO THE PRECIP BANDS. THE GFS BRINGS PCPN
INTO THE PORTLAND AREA...THE ECMWF AND GEM INTO THE BAR HARBOR
AREA. BY WED EVNG THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AGAIN
WITH PCPN SPREAD ACROSS ALL BUT THE CROWN OF MAINE. ALL THREE SHOW
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST WITH MINOR
DIFFERENCES IN THE POSITION OF THE LOW...AS WELL AS A SUPPORTING
CLOSE LOW AT 500 MB. ALL ARE SHOWING A SFC LOW THAT IS BEGINNING TO
GO COLD CORE. THE TREND CONTINUES INTO FRI...COLD CORE LOW ALONG
THE EAST COAST WITH THE OCCLUDED FRONT WRAPPED AROUND THE
LOW...ACROSS MAINE. BY FRI EVNG THE LOW BEGINS TO MOVE NE TOWARDS
THE BAY OF FUNDY. AT THE END OF THE PERIOD THE COLD CORE LOW WILL
BE OVER ERN NOVA SCOTIA.
LOADED THE SUPERBLEND...NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS.
ADDED 15 PERCENT TO THE WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT
OVER WATER.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: UPDATE...ISSUED AN AVIATION WEATHER WARNING FOR BGR(BIA).
SOME CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE DETECTED IN THE
VICINITY OF THE AIRPORT AND ANOTHER CELL IS MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST, BUT WEAKENING PER THE LAST RADAR SCAN. THOUGHT IT WOULD BE
FOR SAFETY TO CARRY THE WARNING THROUGH 5 PM.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT. SOME PATCHY FOG
MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WHICH COULD RESULT IN LCL BRIEF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IFR ACROSS THE
NORTH AND MVFR TO VFR DOWNEAST. VFR CONDITIONS DOWNEAST AND MVFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT. MVFR TO
IFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. A
RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED DOWNEAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH. WEST WINDS WILL
LIKELY BE GUSTY ON MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY.
LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO AFFECT THE
WATERS LATER SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED SATURDAY EVENING. AN SCA WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS GUSTY COLD WEST
WINDS MOVE IN.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...DUDA/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...DUDA/HEWITT/BLOOMER
MARINE...DUDA/HEWITT/BLOOMER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
713 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014
.AVIATION...
//DISCUSSION...
RIDGING WILL CONTINUE MAKING HEADWAY OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
OVERNIGHT...BRINGING A CLEARING TREND OVER THE TAF SITES THIS
EVENING. CLEARING IS MAKING A STEADY MARCH SOUTHWARD...WITH CLEARING
OVER MBS AND ON THE DOOR AT FNT. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH THE MVFR STRATUS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER
THE METRO AIRPORTS BY 03Z. ONE THING TO MONITOR WILL BE COVERAGE OF
LAKE INDUCED STRATOCU AND/OR TRAPPING OF STRATOCU BUT LOW LEVEL WIND
FROM ABOUT 320 IS TYPICALLY A DRY TRAJECTORY INTO OUR AREA FROM
NORTHERN LOWER. CLOUDS INDUCED BY LAKE MICHIGAN MAY BECOME MORE
RELEVANT DURING SUNDAY MORNING AS THE LOW LEVEL WIND BACKS TOWARD
THE WEST.
//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FEET THROUGH 03Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 347 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014
SHORT TERM... AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT
GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND CONTINUES TO CARRY COOLER AIR INTO SE MICHIGAN
DURING THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A
FROSTY NIGHT AS THE WIND DROPS OFF AND MIN TEMPS DROP BELOW
FREEZING. READINGS AS LOW AS THE UPPER 20S WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
INTERIOR LOWER DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER.
MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS CAPTURE THE AFTERNOON BOUNDARY LAYER
BECOMING INCREASINGLY SHALLOW AND MORE STABLE TOWARD EVENING...A
TREND ILLUSTRATED IN THE 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS BETWEEN APX AND
DTX...AND REFLECTED IN RADAR TREND DURING THE AFTERNOON. FROM
THERE...IT IS MORE DIFFICULT TO GAGE THE MODEL SOUNDING QUALITY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. THE MAIN STICKING POINT LIES WITH THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AT THE BASE OF THE STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION THAT DROPS AS LOW AS 900 MB BY 12Z SUNDAY. THERE IS ABOUT
AN EVEN SPLIT BETWEEN THE CLOUDIER NAM AND RAP MODELS VS THE MORE
OPTIMISTIC GFS AND SREF MEAN. OBSERVATIONAL EVIDENCE SUPPORTS THE
LATTER AS DRIER AIR MAKES INROADS THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES UPSTREAM CLOUDS TAKING ON A CONVINCING
LAKE INFLUENCE AND DIURNAL DEPENDENCY OVER LAND WHICH WILL RESULT IN
NOCTURNAL STRATOCU REMAINING CLOSER TO THE SHORELINES. NEUTRAL
NORTH-NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW ALSO FAVORS LESS CLOUDS IN OUR AREA
WITH A DRY DOWNSLOPE TRAJECTORY FROM NORTHERN LOWER INTO THE SAGINAW
VALLEY AND OVER THE REST OF SE MICHIGAN DURING THE NIGHT. THE
EXCEPTION COULD BE OVER THE NORTHERN/EASTERN THUMB WHERE A LONGER
OVER WATER FETCH WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM ABOUT STURGEON POINT
SOUTHWARD WHICH COULD MAINTAIN GREATER STRATOCU COVERAGE THERE
THROUGH SUNRISE SUNDAY.
LONG TERM...
MODEST HEIGHT RISES TOMORROW WITH SOME SEMBLANCE OF WARM FRONT
LIFTING NORTH THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN. UNCERTAINTY IS WITH THE AMOUNT
OF LOW LEVEL WARMING AND SCOURING OUT OF REMNANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...AS NAM SOUNDINGS/925 MB RH FIELD STILL PAINTS A POTENTIAL
CLOUD HINDRANCE...AND A SOMEWHAT CONSERVATIVE APPROACH IN MAXES WILL
BE TAKEN OFF THE COLD START AND WITH 925 MB TEMPS FORECASTED TO ONLY
RISE TO 4 C DURING PEAK HEATING...WORTHY OF MAXES AROUND 50/LOWER
50S DE AS HIGH CLOUDS ALSO EXPECTED TO RAMP UP DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY OVER WESTERN CANADA WILL BE CARVING OUT ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY AS WE HEAD
INTO MONDAY. THE RATE OF AMPLIFICATION IS A BIT UNCERTAIN...BUT
850-700 MB THETA-E RIDGE/MOISTURE AXIS LOOKS PRETTY GOOD...ARRIVING
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY...WITH HIGH CHANCE/LOW LIKELY POPS
SEEMING APPROPRIATE. 500 MB COLD CORE (-23 TO-25 C) TO TRAVERSE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...AND LI`S ARE FORECASTED TO DROP
TOWARD ZERO...WITH AROUND 500 J/KG OF CAPE (PER NAM)...AND AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT AND
CONTINUED LOW CHANCE POPS IN CASE AMPLIFICATION IS FASTER...YIELDING
SLIGHTLY SLOWER FRONTAL PASSAGE/DRYING OUT PROCESS.
UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE
SLOWLY-DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH WHICH WILL CUT OFF OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND. THIS WILL LEAD TO
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES...WITH A
RETURN TO HIGHS IN THE 60S POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
MARINE...
OBSERVATIONS LATE THIS AFTERNOON SHOW WIND GUSTS BELOW GALE FORCE
AND WILL DROP THE GALE WARNINGS WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...AS
PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS AND THE COLD ADVECTION DIMINISHES INTO
TONIGHT. MUCH LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW AS SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS SLIDES THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...LEADING TO A SHIFT IN
THE WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL
PASS THROUGH LATE MONDAY. SUSTAINED WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK OUT
AROUND 20 KNOTS SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS DEVELOPING. A STRONG HIGH BUILDING OVER ONTARIO
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL TRANSLATE TO STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS
OVER LAKE HURON...WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE LAKE...WHERE THE FETCH WILL BE GREATEST. HIGHER WAVES
WILL IMPACT NEARSHORE WATERS WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW...AND SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT
HURON INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY...UNTIL 4 AM SUNDAY.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....KURIMSKI
SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM....SF/DT
MARINE.......SF
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
350 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014
...A COOL WET AND WINDY EVENING WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT LATER
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...
WV LOOP AND IR SATELLITE AND NWS REGIONAL RADAR AND CANADIAN RADAR
LOOPS SHOWING AN EXPANDED AREA OF RAIN SWEEPING NORTH TO SOUTH OVER
UPPER GREAT LAKES. BASED ON SFC OBS...APPEARS BACK EDGE OF RAIN IS
OVR CENTRAL LK SUPERIOR ENE INTO ADJACENT AREAS OF ONTARIO. PRIMARY
SFC LOW IS NOW JUST SOUTH OF JAMES BAY AT AROUND 990MB. NORTH WINDS
OVER THE REGION ARE GUSTING OVER 30 MPH OVER MUCH OF LK SUPERIOR AND
OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN UPR MICHIGAN...WITH 20-30 MPH GUSTS FARTHER
INLAND AND TOWARD LK MICHIGAN. BASED ON UPSTREAM TRENDS...SHORT
TERM MODEL FORECASTS FM NAM/GEM-REGIONAL SEEM IN GOOD SHAPE..AND
HAVE LEANED ON THOSE ALONG WITH THE HRRR FOR DETAILS IN THE NEXT
12-15 HRS. EXPECT A PERIOD OF RAIN AND STRONG WINDS THROUGH AT LEAST
THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE PRECIP DIMINISHES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS
MOISTURE ABOVE H9 DIMINISHES SHARPLY. EVEN WITH THE DECREASE IN
MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE...ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
INTO MUCH OF SATURDAY ALONG WITH A NNW LOW-LEVEL FLOW BTWN DEPARTING
LOW AND APPROACHING SFC HIGH. LAKE ENHANCED PRECIP THIS EVENING
/DELTA T/S AROUND 8C GIVEN SUFFICIENT LARGE SCALE MOISTURE AND LIFT/
SHOULD TRANSITION TO PURE LAKE EFFECT SINCE THERE IS JUST ENOUGH
OVER-WATER INSTABILITY PRESENT AS TEMPS AT INVERSION TOP 900-875MB
FALL TO -5C AFTER 09Z WHILE WATER TEMPS ON AVERAGE ARE AROUND +8C
/PROVIDING DELTA T/S OF 13C/.
BASED ON SOUNDINGS...ANY SNOW POTENTIAL IS BASED ON EXTENT OF
WARMING IN LOWEST PARTS OF THE BLYR. THUS CONTINUED TO USE WBZERO
HEIGHTS TO DETERMINE THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW. APPEARS THAT HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS OF WEST AND CNTRL CWA SEE THE BEST CHANCES FOR SOME
SNOW...BUT WITHOUT DEEPER MOISTURE/LIFTING OCCURRING...SEEMS THAT
TEMPS IN MOIST LAYER MAY NOT BE AS LOW AS -8C OR -10C...SUGGESTING
THERE MAY NOT BE ICE CRYSTALS INTRODUCED FM ALOFT TO LEAD TO BETTER
CHANCES OF SNOW. A WEAK WAVE ALOFT CURRENTLY DROPPING SE OVER CNTRL
MANITOBA MAY PUSH ACROSS WEST CWA LATER TONIGHT RESULTING IN A BIT OF
ADDITIONAL H7-H5 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND LIFT TO HELP OUT THE CAUSE.
EVEN IMPACT FM THAT APPEARS MINIMAL ATTM. OVERALL...CHANCES OF
MEASURABLE SNOW APPEAR MINIMAL WITH THIS SYSTEM.
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH INVERSION AT
H85-H8 ON SATURDAY. KEPT IN SMALL POPS FOR LAKE EFFECT AS SETUP IS
NOT ALL THAT DIFFERENT FM LATE TONIGHT. GRADUALLY...AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA...EXPECT BLYR TO DRY OUT BLO CLOUD BASE
ENOUGH TO RESULT IN ANY LGT PRECIP COMING TO AN END. TEMPS WILL BE
CHILLY AS LOW-LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH IS OVERHEAD. EXPECT MAX TEMPS
MAINLY IN THE 30S...EXCEPT SOME LOW 40S OVER SCNTRL CWA. ADDED TO
THE CHILL WILL BE CONTINUING GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS...
STRONGEST NEAR LK SUPERIOR OVER THE EAST CWA IN THE MORNING.
LIKELY THE BIGGEST POTENTIAL IMPACT FM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WINDS AND
WAVE ACTION ALONG LK SUPERIOR. GIVEN THE HIGH WATER LEVELS ON LAKE
SUPERIOR WHICH ARE THE HIGHEST SINCE THE MID 1990S AND WAVES
BUILDING TO 8-12 FEET INTO THIS EVENING AND THROUGH TONIGHT (HIGHEST
E OF THE KEWEENAW)...MINOR BEACH EROSION AND LOCALIZED FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ON THE BEACHES FROM AROUND MARQUETTE TO GRAND
MARAIS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MENTIONED IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK AND THE GRAPHICAL EHWO.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014
NAM SHOWS A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. 00Z SUN. THERE IS A
SHORTWAVE OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES 00Z SUN THAT AFFECTS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES LATE ON SUN. A 500 MB RIDGE THEN BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS
ON MON. NAM SHOWS SOME DEEPER MOISTURE AND 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE MOVING INTO THE AREA LATE SUN AND THEN MOVING OUT ON
MON. NAM SHOWS SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE ON I290K-I305K
SURFACES MOVING INTO THE AREA SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE
MOVING OUT ON MON. WILL KEEP SOME LOW CHANCE POPS SUN MORNING
GRADUALLY SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA SUN AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AND
THEN DRYING OUT LATE MONDAY. DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE
TEMPERATURES OR THE WEATHER AS THE FORECAST HAD THINGS WELL IN HAND.
IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB TROUGH ON THE WEST
COAST 12Z TUE WITH A RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS AND A TROUGH IN THE ERN
U.S. THE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z WED INTO 12Z
THU WITH RIDGING STAYING IN PLACE INTO FRI. THIS FORECAST PERIOD
WILL BE DRY WITH A WARMING TREND WITH TEMPERATURES GOING ABOVE
NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 153 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014
INCREASING NORTHERLY UPSLOPE WINDS AND EXPANDING PCPN WILL LEAD
TO IFR OR LOWER MVFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THE STRENGTHENING NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST
AT KSAW THIS AFTN/EVENING WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 30KT. AS DRIER
AIR BEGINS TO FLOW INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT...
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR AT ALL TERMINALS WITH PCPN
DIMINISHING OR ENDING. IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR FIRST AT KCMX AND LAST
AT KSAW AS MOISTURE THINS OUT THERE LATEST.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014
GALES 35-40 KTS REMAIN ON TRACK OVER LK SUPERIOR THROUGH TONIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS SOUTHEAST OF JAMES BAY. WINDS JUST STARTING TO
INCREASE ON BAY OF GREEN BAY AND LK MICHIGAN AND EXPECT FREQUENT
GALE GUSTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT THERE. AS A HIGH PRES RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY AFTN...STRONG WINDS WILL DIMINISH
WEST TO EAST. ALTHOUGH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE/SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRACK ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK...NO STRONG WINDS ARE
EXPECTED.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LSZ266-267.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LSZ244-245-248-249-264-
265.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LSZ250-251.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ242-243-246-247-
263.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LMZ221-248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
308 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 536 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW THAT THE STRONG SHORTWAVE
THAT WAS OVER MT 24HRS AGO IS NOW A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW CENTERED
NEAR KDLH WITH ASSOCIATED SFC LOW NEAR KIWD. SO FAR...PCPN
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE HAS MOSTLY BEEN NOTHING MORE THAN SCT.
ONE ARC OF PCPN IS NEARING KIWD AS OF 09Z. MID LEVEL LOW THAT HAS
PLAGUED THE GREAT LAKES IN RECENT DAYS IS SHIFTING N IN RESPONSE TO
THE UPSTREAM WAVE AND IS NOW CENTERED JUST NE OF GEORGIAN BAY. LARGE
AREA OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS BACKING W THRU NRN
ONTARIO TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR. CLOSER TO HOME...IT`S BEEN A QUIET
NIGHT ACROSS UPPER MI UNDER A BLANKET OF LOW CLOUDS OVER ALL BUT THE
FAR W. SOME FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...AND SPOTTY -DZ HAS BEEN NOTED.
AS SYSTEM NEAR KDLH TRACKS SE INTO LWR MI BY EVENING...IT WILL
ENTRAIN SOME OF THE MOISTURE BACKING W ACROSS NRN ONTARIO. THE
DEEPENING MOISTURE PROFILE COMBINED WITH FORCING PROVIDED BY THE
WAVE WILL RESULT IN EXPANSION OF PCPN ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES TODAY.
PCPN WILL BECOME MOST WIDESPREAD ACROSS NRN UPPER MI DUE TO
STRENGTHENING NRLY UPSLOPE FLOW AND EVENTUALLY A WEAK LAKE
ENHANCEMENT COMPONENT AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TO 0C BY 00Z. WITH
DEVELOPMENT OF MORE WIDESPREAD PCPN AND STRENGTHENING NRLY
WINDS...TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO FALL THIS AFTN...SETTLING INTO THE LWR 40S
BY EVENING ACROSS THE N AND W.
TONIGHT...DEEP MOISTURE LINGERS IN THE EVENING...PROVIDING CONTINUED
UPSLOPE FLOW/LAKE ENHANCED PCPN OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. UTILIZING WET
BULB HEIGHTS...MAY SEE A LITTLE SNOW MIX WITH THE RAIN OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN OF THE KEWEENAW AND FROM THE HURON MTNS TOWARD IRON RIVER BY
LATE EVENING AS WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS FALL BLO 1500FT AGL IN THOSE
AREAS. OVERNIGHT...THERE IS EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT ON VERY
PRONOUNCED DRYING FROM THE NW BEGINNING ROUGHLY AROUND 06Z.
INVERSION CRASHES TO AROUND 3KFT. WITH TEMPS IN THE SHALLOW MOIST
LAYER -5 TO -7C AT THE LOWEST...IT`S VERY POSSIBLE PCPN WILL
COMPLETELY SHUTDOWN OR NEARLY SHUTDOWN FROM W TO E OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY SAT MORNING AS SUFFICIENTLY WARM WATER TO REACH THE LAKE
EFFECT THRESHOLD ONLY EXISTS CLOSE TO THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. THUS...IN EFFECT...THERE IS ONLY A SHORT FETCH. THE VERY
NOTABLE DECREASE IN PCPN COVERAGE ON ALL MODEL GUIDANCE CERTAINLY
REFLECTS THIS POSSIBILITY. FOR NOW...GRIDS WILL SHOW LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS IN THE EVENING ACROSS THE N FALLING TO CHC
OVERNIGHT...LOWEST W. IN THE INTERIOR AWAY FROM AREAS FAVORED BY NNW
UPSLOPE...SCT SHRA IN THE EVENING WILL END OVERNIGHT. WITH WET BULB
ZERO HEIGHTS CONTINUING TO FALL...MORE OF THE LINGERING PCPN WILL
MIX WITH OR EVEN CHANGE TO SNOW WHERE MOISTURE STILL EXTENDS TO THE
-10C OR LWR ISOTHERM. GIVEN THE RAPID DECREASE IN PCPN
COVERAGE/INTENSITY DURING THE OVERNIGHT...NOT EXPECTING ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION.
ON A FINAL NOTE...WITH STRONGER WINDS OF 30-40KT CENTERED AROUND
2KFT ARRIVING THIS AFTN COMBINED WITH WEAK CAA...WINDS WILL BECOME
GUSTY THIS AFTN...AT FIRST NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT EVENTUALLY OVER
MUCH OF THE FCST AREA. EXPECT STRONGEST WINDS GUSTING TO 35-40MPH
CLOSER TO LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY E OF THE KEWEENAW FROM
MARQUETTE TO GRAND MARAIS WHERE THE STRONGER CORE OF WINDS IS NOTED
IN MODEL GUIDANCE. WIND GUSTS INLAND AND CLOSER TO LAKE MICHIGAN
WILL BE UP TO AROUND 30MPH. GIVEN THE HIGH WATER LEVELS ON LAKE
SUPERIOR (HIGHEST SINCE THE MID 1990S) AND WAVES BUILDING TO 8-12
FEET LATE IN THE DAY INTO TONIGHT (HIGHEST E OF THE KEWEENAW)...
MINOR BEACH EROSION/FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ON THE
BEACHES FROM AROUND MARQUETTE TO GRAND MARAIS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014
NAM SHOWS A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. 00Z SUN. THERE IS A
SHORTWAVE OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES 00Z SUN THAT AFFECTS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES LATE ON SUN. A 500 MB RIDGE THEN BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS
ON MON. NAM SHOWS SOME DEEPER MOISTURE AND 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE MOVING INTO THE AREA LATE SUN AND THEN MOVING OUT ON
MON. NAM SHOWS SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE ON I290K-I305K
SURFACES MOVING INTO THE AREA SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE
MOVING OUT ON MON. WILL KEEP SOME LOW CHANCE POPS SUN MORNING
GRADUALLY SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA SUN AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AND
THEN DRYING OUT LATE MONDAY. DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE
TEMPERATURES OR THE WEATHER AS THE FORECAST HAD THINGS WELL IN HAND.
IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB TROUGH ON THE WEST
COAST 12Z TUE WITH A RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS AND A TROUGH IN THE ERN
U.S. THE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z WED INTO 12Z
THU WITH RIDGING STAYING IN PLACE INTO FRI. THIS FORECAST PERIOD
WILL BE DRY WITH A WARMING TREND WITH TEMPERATURES GOING ABOVE
NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 153 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014
INCREASING NORTHERLY UPSLOPE WINDS AND EXPANDING PCPN WILL LEAD
TO IFR OR LOWER MVFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THE STRENGTHENING NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST
AT KSAW THIS AFTN/EVENING WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 30KT. AS DRIER
AIR BEGINS TO FLOW INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT...
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR AT ALL TERMINALS WITH PCPN
DIMINISHING OR ENDING. IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR FIRST AT KCMX AND LAST
AT KSAW AS MOISTURE THINS OUT THERE LATEST.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014
AS A LO PRES DEEPENS NEAR JAMES BAY TODAY...EXPECT NNW GALES TO
35-40 KTS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO SAT MORNING
OVER ALL BUT FAR WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. CONTINUED GALE WARNINGS
ISSUED YESTERDAY. ISSUED GALE WARNINGS FOR THE LAKE MICHIGAN
NEARSHORE WATERS AND THE NORTHERN BAY OF GREEN BAY AS AXIS OF
HIGHEST WINDS WILL EXTEND INTO THAT AREA BY THIS EVENING BEFORE THE
FREQUENT GALE FORCE GUSTS DIMINISH ON SAT MORNING. AS A HI PRES
RIDGE APPROACHES FROM THE W ON SAT...THE STRONG WINDS WILL DIMINISH
W-E. ALTHOUGH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE/SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK...NO STRONG WINDS ARE
EXPECTED.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LSZ266-267.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LSZ244-245-248-249-264-
265.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LSZ250-251.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ242-243-246-247-
263.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LMZ221-248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
157 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 536 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW THAT THE STRONG SHORTWAVE
THAT WAS OVER MT 24HRS AGO IS NOW A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW CENTERED
NEAR KDLH WITH ASSOCIATED SFC LOW NEAR KIWD. SO FAR...PCPN
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE HAS MOSTLY BEEN NOTHING MORE THAN SCT.
ONE ARC OF PCPN IS NEARING KIWD AS OF 09Z. MID LEVEL LOW THAT HAS
PLAGUED THE GREAT LAKES IN RECENT DAYS IS SHIFTING N IN RESPONSE TO
THE UPSTREAM WAVE AND IS NOW CENTERED JUST NE OF GEORGIAN BAY. LARGE
AREA OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS BACKING W THRU NRN
ONTARIO TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR. CLOSER TO HOME...IT`S BEEN A QUIET
NIGHT ACROSS UPPER MI UNDER A BLANKET OF LOW CLOUDS OVER ALL BUT THE
FAR W. SOME FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...AND SPOTTY -DZ HAS BEEN NOTED.
AS SYSTEM NEAR KDLH TRACKS SE INTO LWR MI BY EVENING...IT WILL
ENTRAIN SOME OF THE MOISTURE BACKING W ACROSS NRN ONTARIO. THE
DEEPENING MOISTURE PROFILE COMBINED WITH FORCING PROVIDED BY THE
WAVE WILL RESULT IN EXPANSION OF PCPN ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES TODAY.
PCPN WILL BECOME MOST WIDESPREAD ACROSS NRN UPPER MI DUE TO
STRENGTHENING NRLY UPSLOPE FLOW AND EVENTUALLY A WEAK LAKE
ENHANCEMENT COMPONENT AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TO 0C BY 00Z. WITH
DEVELOPMENT OF MORE WIDESPREAD PCPN AND STRENGTHENING NRLY
WINDS...TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO FALL THIS AFTN...SETTLING INTO THE LWR 40S
BY EVENING ACROSS THE N AND W.
TONIGHT...DEEP MOISTURE LINGERS IN THE EVENING...PROVIDING CONTINUED
UPSLOPE FLOW/LAKE ENHANCED PCPN OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. UTILIZING WET
BULB HEIGHTS...MAY SEE A LITTLE SNOW MIX WITH THE RAIN OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN OF THE KEWEENAW AND FROM THE HURON MTNS TOWARD IRON RIVER BY
LATE EVENING AS WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS FALL BLO 1500FT AGL IN THOSE
AREAS. OVERNIGHT...THERE IS EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT ON VERY
PRONOUNCED DRYING FROM THE NW BEGINNING ROUGHLY AROUND 06Z.
INVERSION CRASHES TO AROUND 3KFT. WITH TEMPS IN THE SHALLOW MOIST
LAYER -5 TO -7C AT THE LOWEST...IT`S VERY POSSIBLE PCPN WILL
COMPLETELY SHUTDOWN OR NEARLY SHUTDOWN FROM W TO E OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY SAT MORNING AS SUFFICIENTLY WARM WATER TO REACH THE LAKE
EFFECT THRESHOLD ONLY EXISTS CLOSE TO THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. THUS...IN EFFECT...THERE IS ONLY A SHORT FETCH. THE VERY
NOTABLE DECREASE IN PCPN COVERAGE ON ALL MODEL GUIDANCE CERTAINLY
REFLECTS THIS POSSIBILITY. FOR NOW...GRIDS WILL SHOW LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS IN THE EVENING ACROSS THE N FALLING TO CHC
OVERNIGHT...LOWEST W. IN THE INTERIOR AWAY FROM AREAS FAVORED BY NNW
UPSLOPE...SCT SHRA IN THE EVENING WILL END OVERNIGHT. WITH WET BULB
ZERO HEIGHTS CONTINUING TO FALL...MORE OF THE LINGERING PCPN WILL
MIX WITH OR EVEN CHANGE TO SNOW WHERE MOISTURE STILL EXTENDS TO THE
-10C OR LWR ISOTHERM. GIVEN THE RAPID DECREASE IN PCPN
COVERAGE/INTENSITY DURING THE OVERNIGHT...NOT EXPECTING ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION.
ON A FINAL NOTE...WITH STRONGER WINDS OF 30-40KT CENTERED AROUND
2KFT ARRIVING THIS AFTN COMBINED WITH WEAK CAA...WINDS WILL BECOME
GUSTY THIS AFTN...AT FIRST NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT EVENTUALLY OVER
MUCH OF THE FCST AREA. EXPECT STRONGEST WINDS GUSTING TO 35-40MPH
CLOSER TO LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY E OF THE KEWEENAW FROM
MARQUETTE TO GRAND MARAIS WHERE THE STRONGER CORE OF WINDS IS NOTED
IN MODEL GUIDANCE. WIND GUSTS INLAND AND CLOSER TO LAKE MICHIGAN
WILL BE UP TO AROUND 30MPH. GIVEN THE HIGH WATER LEVELS ON LAKE
SUPERIOR (HIGHEST SINCE THE MID 1990S) AND WAVES BUILDING TO 8-12
FEET LATE IN THE DAY INTO TONIGHT (HIGHEST E OF THE KEWEENAW)...
MINOR BEACH EROSION/FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ON THE
BEACHES FROM AROUND MARQUETTE TO GRAND MARAIS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE LONG TERM WL BE FOCUSED ON DIMINISHING
POPS/WINDS ON SAT AND THEN POPS AGAIN LATE SUN INTO MON IN ADVANCE
OF ANOTHER SHRTWV DIGGING INTO THE GREAT LKS. TEMPS SHOULD BE AOB
NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEK WITH THE COLDEST TEMPS ON SAT NGT UNDER HI
PRES RDG/DRY AIRMASS PASSING OVER THE UPR LKS. SOME WARMER WX WL
RETURN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK UNDER A BLDG UPR RDG.
SAT...ALTHOUGH PLENTY OF LK CLDS AND SOME SCT SHOWERS OF RAIN MIXED
WITH SNOW WL STILL BE ARND IN THE MRNG UNDER LINGERING H85 THERMAL
TROF...RISING HGTS/DNVA/LARGE SCALE QVECTOR DVGC IN ADVANCE OF
APRCHG SHRTWV RDG THAT IS FCST TO SHARPEN AND LOWER INVRN BASE BLO
H9 BY 00Z SUN WL END THIS PCPN AND BRING A RETURN OF SOME SUNSHINE
BY LATE IN THE DAY AS INVRN BASE SINKS BLO THE LCL. EXPECT LINGERING
GUSTY NNW WINDS IN THE MRNG TO ALSO DIMINISH STEADILY WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF HI PRES RDG OVER THE W LATE IN THE DAY.
SAT NGT...WITH RDG AXIS PASSING OVHD AND PWAT FCST AS LO AS 0.25
INCH SUPPORTING THE CLRG OF ANY LO CLDS THAT MIGHT LINGER EARLY OVER
THE E...EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL WELL INTO THE 20S OVER THE INTERIOR
CENTRAL AND E. RETURN SW FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SFC RDG
AXIS AND SOME HI CLDS ARRIVING LATE IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SHRTWV
DIGGING SEWD THRU SCENTRAL CANADA WL TEND TO LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP
DROP OVER THE W.
SUN INTO MON...NEXT SHRTWV DROPPING SEWD AND INTO THE UPR LKS/UPR
MIDWEST BY 12Z MON WL BRING INCRSG CLDS ON SUN AND THE NEXT CHC OF
SHOWERS SUN AFTN INTO MON MRNG. ALTHOUGH MSTR INFLOW INTO THIS
DISTURBANCE WL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED...FAIRLY VIGOROUS DPVA/QVECTOR
CNVGC AND SOME SHARPER ISENTROPIC ASCENT SHOWN BEST ON THE 295K SFC
/H775-725/ WARRANT RAISING POPS INTO THE HI LIKELY RANGE OVER THE
CENTRAL AND E CENTERED ARND 00Z MON WHERE AND WHEN THE DYNAMIC
FORCING WL BE SHARPEST. ALTHOUGH THE SHARPER UPPER FORCING WL EXIT
ON MON MRNG...LINGERING LLVL CYC NE FLOW AND SOME DEEPER MSTR SHOULD
MAINTAIN LOTS OF CLDS AND SOME SCT SHOWERS. ALTHOUGH H85 TEMPS ARE
PROGGED TO FALL TO ARND 0C BY 00Z TUE...ALL THE PCPN SHOULD BE IN
THE FORM OF RA WITH H85 TEMPS IN THE 2-5C RANGE MOST OF THE TIME.
MON NGT INTO TUE...ALTHOUGH HGTS WL BEGIN TO RISE IN THE WAKE OF THE
DIGGING SHRTWV INTO THE SE GREAT LKS...SOME MODELS SHOW SHARPER CYC
NE FLOW LINGERING INTO TUE MRNG. THIS SETUP MAY BE FAVORABLE FOR
MORE LK CLDS/EVEN A FEW SPRINKLES LINGERING A BIT LONGER FOR AREAS
NEAR LK SUP...MAINLY OVER THE NCENTRAL. BUT AS SFC HI PRES BUILDS
SLOWLY SE ON TUE...EXPECT ANY LINGERING CLDS TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE AND
GIVE WAY TO A MOSUNNY AFTN.
WED/THU...EXPECT MOCLR SKIES WITH SFC HI PRES UNDER UPR RDG
EXTENDING FM THE PLAINS INTO THE UPR GREAT LKS. WITH H85 TEMPS UP TO
8 TO 9C...EXPECT ABV NORMAL MAX TEMPS BOTH DAYS. BUT CLEAR SKIES/LGT
WINDS AT NGT WL SUPPORT A LARGE DIURNAL TEMP RANGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 153 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014
INCREASING NORTHERLY UPSLOPE WINDS AND EXPANDING PCPN WILL LEAD
TO IFR OR LOWER MVFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THE STRENGTHENING NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST
AT KSAW THIS AFTN/EVENING WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 30KT. AS DRIER
AIR BEGINS TO FLOW INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT...
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR AT ALL TERMINALS WITH PCPN
DIMINISHING OR ENDING. IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR FIRST AT KCMX AND LAST
AT KSAW AS MOISTURE THINS OUT THERE LATEST.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014
AS A LO PRES DEEPENS NEAR JAMES BAY TODAY...EXPECT NNW GALES TO
35-40 KTS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO SAT MORNING
OVER ALL BUT FAR WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. CONTINUED GALE WARNINGS
ISSUED YESTERDAY. ISSUED GALE WARNINGS FOR THE LAKE MICHIGAN
NEARSHORE WATERS AND THE NORTHERN BAY OF GREEN BAY AS AXIS OF
HIGHEST WINDS WILL EXTEND INTO THAT AREA BY THIS EVENING BEFORE THE
FREQUENT GALE FORCE GUSTS DIMINISH ON SAT MORNING. AS A HI PRES
RIDGE APPROACHES FROM THE W ON SAT...THE STRONG WINDS WILL DIMINISH
W-E. ALTHOUGH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE/SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK...NO STRONG WINDS ARE
EXPECTED.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LSZ266-267.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LSZ244-245-248-249-264-
265.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LSZ250-251.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ242-243-246-247-
263.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
LMZ221-248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
736 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 536 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW THAT THE STRONG SHORTWAVE
THAT WAS OVER MT 24HRS AGO IS NOW A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW CENTERED
NEAR KDLH WITH ASSOCIATED SFC LOW NEAR KIWD. SO FAR...PCPN
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE HAS MOSTLY BEEN NOTHING MORE THAN SCT.
ONE ARC OF PCPN IS NEARING KIWD AS OF 09Z. MID LEVEL LOW THAT HAS
PLAGUED THE GREAT LAKES IN RECENT DAYS IS SHIFTING N IN RESPONSE TO
THE UPSTREAM WAVE AND IS NOW CENTERED JUST NE OF GEORGIAN BAY. LARGE
AREA OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS BACKING W THRU NRN
ONTARIO TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR. CLOSER TO HOME...IT`S BEEN A QUIET
NIGHT ACROSS UPPER MI UNDER A BLANKET OF LOW CLOUDS OVER ALL BUT THE
FAR W. SOME FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...AND SPOTTY -DZ HAS BEEN NOTED.
AS SYSTEM NEAR KDLH TRACKS SE INTO LWR MI BY EVENING...IT WILL
ENTRAIN SOME OF THE MOISTURE BACKING W ACROSS NRN ONTARIO. THE
DEEPENING MOISTURE PROFILE COMBINED WITH FORCING PROVIDED BY THE
WAVE WILL RESULT IN EXPANSION OF PCPN ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES TODAY.
PCPN WILL BECOME MOST WIDESPREAD ACROSS NRN UPPER MI DUE TO
STRENGTHENING NRLY UPSLOPE FLOW AND EVENTUALLY A WEAK LAKE
ENHANCEMENT COMPONENT AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TO 0C BY 00Z. WITH
DEVELOPMENT OF MORE WIDESPREAD PCPN AND STRENGTHENING NRLY
WINDS...TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO FALL THIS AFTN...SETTLING INTO THE LWR 40S
BY EVENING ACROSS THE N AND W.
TONIGHT...DEEP MOISTURE LINGERS IN THE EVENING...PROVIDING CONTINUED
UPSLOPE FLOW/LAKE ENHANCED PCPN OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. UTILIZING WET
BULB HEIGHTS...MAY SEE A LITTLE SNOW MIX WITH THE RAIN OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN OF THE KEWEENAW AND FROM THE HURON MTNS TOWARD IRON RIVER BY
LATE EVENING AS WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS FALL BLO 1500FT AGL IN THOSE
AREAS. OVERNIGHT...THERE IS EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT ON VERY
PRONOUNCED DRYING FROM THE NW BEGINNING ROUGHLY AROUND 06Z.
INVERSION CRASHES TO AROUND 3KFT. WITH TEMPS IN THE SHALLOW MOIST
LAYER -5 TO -7C AT THE LOWEST...IT`S VERY POSSIBLE PCPN WILL
COMPLETELY SHUTDOWN OR NEARLY SHUTDOWN FROM W TO E OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY SAT MORNING AS SUFFICIENTLY WARM WATER TO REACH THE LAKE
EFFECT THRESHOLD ONLY EXISTS CLOSE TO THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. THUS...IN EFFECT...THERE IS ONLY A SHORT FETCH. THE VERY
NOTABLE DECREASE IN PCPN COVERAGE ON ALL MODEL GUIDANCE CERTAINLY
REFLECTS THIS POSSIBILITY. FOR NOW...GRIDS WILL SHOW LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS IN THE EVENING ACROSS THE N FALLING TO CHC
OVERNIGHT...LOWEST W. IN THE INTERIOR AWAY FROM AREAS FAVORED BY NNW
UPSLOPE...SCT SHRA IN THE EVENING WILL END OVERNIGHT. WITH WET BULB
ZERO HEIGHTS CONTINUING TO FALL...MORE OF THE LINGERING PCPN WILL
MIX WITH OR EVEN CHANGE TO SNOW WHERE MOISTURE STILL EXTENDS TO THE
-10C OR LWR ISOTHERM. GIVEN THE RAPID DECREASE IN PCPN
COVERAGE/INTENSITY DURING THE OVERNIGHT...NOT EXPECTING ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION.
ON A FINAL NOTE...WITH STRONGER WINDS OF 30-40KT CENTERED AROUND
2KFT ARRIVING THIS AFTN COMBINED WITH WEAK CAA...WINDS WILL BECOME
GUSTY THIS AFTN...AT FIRST NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT EVENTUALLY OVER
MUCH OF THE FCST AREA. EXPECT STRONGEST WINDS GUSTING TO 35-40MPH
CLOSER TO LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY E OF THE KEWEENAW FROM
MARQUETTE TO GRAND MARAIS WHERE THE STRONGER CORE OF WINDS IS NOTED
IN MODEL GUIDANCE. WIND GUSTS INLAND AND CLOSER TO LAKE MICHIGAN
WILL BE UP TO AROUND 30MPH. GIVEN THE HIGH WATER LEVELS ON LAKE
SUPERIOR (HIGHEST SINCE THE MID 1990S) AND WAVES BUILDING TO 8-12
FEET LATE IN THE DAY INTO TONIGHT (HIGHEST E OF THE KEWEENAW)...
MINOR BEACH EROSION/FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ON THE
BEACHES FROM AROUND MARQUETTE TO GRAND MARAIS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE LONG TERM WL BE FOCUSED ON DIMINISHING
POPS/WINDS ON SAT AND THEN POPS AGAIN LATE SUN INTO MON IN ADVANCE
OF ANOTHER SHRTWV DIGGING INTO THE GREAT LKS. TEMPS SHOULD BE AOB
NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEK WITH THE COLDEST TEMPS ON SAT NGT UNDER HI
PRES RDG/DRY AIRMASS PASSING OVER THE UPR LKS. SOME WARMER WX WL
RETURN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK UNDER A BLDG UPR RDG.
SAT...ALTHOUGH PLENTY OF LK CLDS AND SOME SCT SHOWERS OF RAIN MIXED
WITH SNOW WL STILL BE ARND IN THE MRNG UNDER LINGERING H85 THERMAL
TROF...RISING HGTS/DNVA/LARGE SCALE QVECTOR DVGC IN ADVANCE OF
APRCHG SHRTWV RDG THAT IS FCST TO SHARPEN AND LOWER INVRN BASE BLO
H9 BY 00Z SUN WL END THIS PCPN AND BRING A RETURN OF SOME SUNSHINE
BY LATE IN THE DAY AS INVRN BASE SINKS BLO THE LCL. EXPECT LINGERING
GUSTY NNW WINDS IN THE MRNG TO ALSO DIMINISH STEADILY WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF HI PRES RDG OVER THE W LATE IN THE DAY.
SAT NGT...WITH RDG AXIS PASSING OVHD AND PWAT FCST AS LO AS 0.25
INCH SUPPORTING THE CLRG OF ANY LO CLDS THAT MIGHT LINGER EARLY OVER
THE E...EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL WELL INTO THE 20S OVER THE INTERIOR
CENTRAL AND E. RETURN SW FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SFC RDG
AXIS AND SOME HI CLDS ARRIVING LATE IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SHRTWV
DIGGING SEWD THRU SCENTRAL CANADA WL TEND TO LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP
DROP OVER THE W.
SUN INTO MON...NEXT SHRTWV DROPPING SEWD AND INTO THE UPR LKS/UPR
MIDWEST BY 12Z MON WL BRING INCRSG CLDS ON SUN AND THE NEXT CHC OF
SHOWERS SUN AFTN INTO MON MRNG. ALTHOUGH MSTR INFLOW INTO THIS
DISTURBANCE WL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED...FAIRLY VIGOROUS DPVA/QVECTOR
CNVGC AND SOME SHARPER ISENTROPIC ASCENT SHOWN BEST ON THE 295K SFC
/H775-725/ WARRANT RAISING POPS INTO THE HI LIKELY RANGE OVER THE
CENTRAL AND E CENTERED ARND 00Z MON WHERE AND WHEN THE DYNAMIC
FORCING WL BE SHARPEST. ALTHOUGH THE SHARPER UPPER FORCING WL EXIT
ON MON MRNG...LINGERING LLVL CYC NE FLOW AND SOME DEEPER MSTR SHOULD
MAINTAIN LOTS OF CLDS AND SOME SCT SHOWERS. ALTHOUGH H85 TEMPS ARE
PROGGED TO FALL TO ARND 0C BY 00Z TUE...ALL THE PCPN SHOULD BE IN
THE FORM OF RA WITH H85 TEMPS IN THE 2-5C RANGE MOST OF THE TIME.
MON NGT INTO TUE...ALTHOUGH HGTS WL BEGIN TO RISE IN THE WAKE OF THE
DIGGING SHRTWV INTO THE SE GREAT LKS...SOME MODELS SHOW SHARPER CYC
NE FLOW LINGERING INTO TUE MRNG. THIS SETUP MAY BE FAVORABLE FOR
MORE LK CLDS/EVEN A FEW SPRINKLES LINGERING A BIT LONGER FOR AREAS
NEAR LK SUP...MAINLY OVER THE NCENTRAL. BUT AS SFC HI PRES BUILDS
SLOWLY SE ON TUE...EXPECT ANY LINGERING CLDS TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE AND
GIVE WAY TO A MOSUNNY AFTN.
WED/THU...EXPECT MOCLR SKIES WITH SFC HI PRES UNDER UPR RDG
EXTENDING FM THE PLAINS INTO THE UPR GREAT LKS. WITH H85 TEMPS UP TO
8 TO 9C...EXPECT ABV NORMAL MAX TEMPS BOTH DAYS. BUT CLEAR SKIES/LGT
WINDS AT NGT WL SUPPORT A LARGE DIURNAL TEMP RANGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 736 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014
INCREASING NORTHERLY UPSLOPE WINDS AND DEVELOPING/EXPANDING PCPN
WILL LEAD TO IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TODAY AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. LIFR
CONDITIONS ARE MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR AT KIWD/KSAW UNDER A MORE
FAVORABLE UPSLOPE WIND. THE STRENGTHENING NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE
STRONGEST AT KSAW THIS AFTN/EVENING WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 30KT. AS
DRIER AIR BEINGS FLOW INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
OVERNIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR AT ALL TERMINALS WITH
PCPN DIMINISHING OR ENDING. IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR FIRST AT KCMX AND
LAST AT KSAW AS MOISTURE THINS OUT THERE LATEST.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014
AS A LO PRES DEEPENS NEAR JAMES BAY TODAY...EXPECT NNW GALES TO
35-40 KTS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO SAT MORNING
OVER ALL BUT FAR WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. CONTINUED GALE WARNINGS
ISSUED YESTERDAY. ISSUED GALE WARNINGS FOR THE LAKE MICHIGAN
NEARSHORE WATERS AND THE NORTHERN BAY OF GREEN BAY AS AXIS OF
HIGHEST WINDS WILL EXTEND INTO THAT AREA BY THIS EVENING BEFORE THE
FREQUENT GALE FORCE GUSTS DIMINISH ON SAT MORNING. AS A HI PRES
RIDGE APPROACHES FROM THE W ON SAT...THE STRONG WINDS WILL DIMINISH
W-E. ALTHOUGH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE/SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK...NO STRONG WINDS ARE
EXPECTED.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 11 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LSZ266-
267.
GALE WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LSZ244-245-
248-249-264-265.
GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
LSZ250-251.
GALE WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LSZ242-243-246-247-263.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
LMZ221-248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
537 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 536 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW THAT THE STRONG SHORTWAVE
THAT WAS OVER MT 24HRS AGO IS NOW A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW CENTERED
NEAR KDLH WITH ASSOCIATED SFC LOW NEAR KIWD. SO FAR...PCPN
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE HAS MOSTLY BEEN NOTHING MORE THAN SCT.
ONE ARC OF PCPN IS NEARING KIWD AS OF 09Z. MID LEVEL LOW THAT HAS
PLAGUED THE GREAT LAKES IN RECENT DAYS IS SHIFTING N IN RESPONSE TO
THE UPSTREAM WAVE AND IS NOW CENTERED JUST NE OF GEORGIAN BAY. LARGE
AREA OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS BACKING W THRU NRN
ONTARIO TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR. CLOSER TO HOME...IT`S BEEN A QUIET
NIGHT ACROSS UPPER MI UNDER A BLANKET OF LOW CLOUDS OVER ALL BUT THE
FAR W. SOME FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...AND SPOTTY -DZ HAS BEEN NOTED.
AS SYSTEM NEAR KDLH TRACKS SE INTO LWR MI BY EVENING...IT WILL
ENTRAIN SOME OF THE MOISTURE BACKING W ACROSS NRN ONTARIO. THE
DEEPENING MOISTURE PROFILE COMBINED WITH FORCING PROVIDED BY THE
WAVE WILL RESULT IN EXPANSION OF PCPN ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES TODAY.
PCPN WILL BECOME MOST WIDESPREAD ACROSS NRN UPPER MI DUE TO
STRENGTHENING NRLY UPSLOPE FLOW AND EVENTUALLY A WEAK LAKE
ENHANCEMENT COMPONENT AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TO 0C BY 00Z. WITH
DEVELOPMENT OF MORE WIDESPREAD PCPN AND STRENGTHENING NRLY
WINDS...TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO FALL THIS AFTN...SETTLING INTO THE LWR 40S
BY EVENING ACROSS THE N AND W.
TONIGHT...DEEP MOISTURE LINGERS IN THE EVENING...PROVIDING CONTINUED
UPSLOPE FLOW/LAKE ENHANCED PCPN OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. UTILIZING WET
BULB HEIGHTS...MAY SEE A LITTLE SNOW MIX WITH THE RAIN OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN OF THE KEWEENAW AND FROM THE HURON MTNS TOWARD IRON RIVER BY
LATE EVENING AS WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS FALL BLO 1500FT AGL IN THOSE
AREAS. OVERNIGHT...THERE IS EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT ON VERY
PRONOUNCED DRYING FROM THE NW BEGINNING ROUGHLY AROUND 06Z.
INVERSION CRASHES TO AROUND 3KFT. WITH TEMPS IN THE SHALLOW MOIST
LAYER -5 TO -7C AT THE LOWEST...IT`S VERY POSSIBLE PCPN WILL
COMPLETELY SHUTDOWN OR NEARLY SHUTDOWN FROM W TO E OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY SAT MORNING AS SUFFICIENTLY WARM WATER TO REACH THE LAKE
EFFECT THRESHOLD ONLY EXISTS CLOSE TO THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. THUS...IN EFFECT...THERE IS ONLY A SHORT FETCH. THE VERY
NOTABLE DECREASE IN PCPN COVERAGE ON ALL MODEL GUIDANCE CERTAINLY
REFLECTS THIS POSSIBILITY. FOR NOW...GRIDS WILL SHOW LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS IN THE EVENING ACROSS THE N FALLING TO CHC
OVERNIGHT...LOWEST W. IN THE INTERIOR AWAY FROM AREAS FAVORED BY NNW
UPSLOPE...SCT SHRA IN THE EVENING WILL END OVERNIGHT. WITH WET BULB
ZERO HEIGHTS CONTINUING TO FALL...MORE OF THE LINGERING PCPN WILL
MIX WITH OR EVEN CHANGE TO SNOW WHERE MOISTURE STILL EXTENDS TO THE
-10C OR LWR ISOTHERM. GIVEN THE RAPID DECREASE IN PCPN
COVERAGE/INTENSITY DURING THE OVERNIGHT...NOT EXPECTING ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION.
ON A FINAL NOTE...WITH STRONGER WINDS OF 30-40KT CENTERED AROUND
2KFT ARRIVING THIS AFTN COMBINED WITH WEAK CAA...WINDS WILL BECOME
GUSTY THIS AFTN...AT FIRST NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT EVENTUALLY OVER
MUCH OF THE FCST AREA. EXPECT STRONGEST WINDS GUSTING TO 35-40MPH
CLOSER TO LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY E OF THE KEWEENAW FROM
MARQUETTE TO GRAND MARAIS WHERE THE STRONGER CORE OF WINDS IS NOTED
IN MODEL GUIDANCE. WIND GUSTS INLAND AND CLOSER TO LAKE MICHIGAN
WILL BE UP TO AROUND 30MPH. GIVEN THE HIGH WATER LEVELS ON LAKE
SUPERIOR (HIGHEST SINCE THE MID 1990S) AND WAVES BUILDING TO 8-12
FEET LATE IN THE DAY INTO TONIGHT (HIGHEST E OF THE KEWEENAW)...
MINOR BEACH EROSION/FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ON THE
BEACHES FROM AROUND MARQUETTE TO GRAND MARAIS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE LONG TERM WL BE FOCUSED ON DIMINISHING
POPS/WINDS ON SAT AND THEN POPS AGAIN LATE SUN INTO MON IN ADVANCE
OF ANOTHER SHRTWV DIGGING INTO THE GREAT LKS. TEMPS SHOULD BE AOB
NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEK WITH THE COLDEST TEMPS ON SAT NGT UNDER HI
PRES RDG/DRY AIRMASS PASSING OVER THE UPR LKS. SOME WARMER WX WL
RETURN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK UNDER A BLDG UPR RDG.
SAT...ALTHOUGH PLENTY OF LK CLDS AND SOME SCT SHOWERS OF RAIN MIXED
WITH SNOW WL STILL BE ARND IN THE MRNG UNDER LINGERING H85 THERMAL
TROF...RISING HGTS/DNVA/LARGE SCALE QVECTOR DVGC IN ADVANCE OF
APRCHG SHRTWV RDG THAT IS FCST TO SHARPEN AND LOWER INVRN BASE BLO
H9 BY 00Z SUN WL END THIS PCPN AND BRING A RETURN OF SOME SUNSHINE
BY LATE IN THE DAY AS INVRN BASE SINKS BLO THE LCL. EXPECT LINGERING
GUSTY NNW WINDS IN THE MRNG TO ALSO DIMINISH STEADILY WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF HI PRES RDG OVER THE W LATE IN THE DAY.
SAT NGT...WITH RDG AXIS PASSING OVHD AND PWAT FCST AS LO AS 0.25
INCH SUPPORTING THE CLRG OF ANY LO CLDS THAT MIGHT LINGER EARLY OVER
THE E...EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL WELL INTO THE 20S OVER THE INTERIOR
CENTRAL AND E. RETURN SW FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SFC RDG
AXIS AND SOME HI CLDS ARRIVING LATE IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SHRTWV
DIGGING SEWD THRU SCENTRAL CANADA WL TEND TO LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP
DROP OVER THE W.
SUN INTO MON...NEXT SHRTWV DROPPING SEWD AND INTO THE UPR LKS/UPR
MIDWEST BY 12Z MON WL BRING INCRSG CLDS ON SUN AND THE NEXT CHC OF
SHOWERS SUN AFTN INTO MON MRNG. ALTHOUGH MSTR INFLOW INTO THIS
DISTURBANCE WL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED...FAIRLY VIGOROUS DPVA/QVECTOR
CNVGC AND SOME SHARPER ISENTROPIC ASCENT SHOWN BEST ON THE 295K SFC
/H775-725/ WARRANT RAISING POPS INTO THE HI LIKELY RANGE OVER THE
CENTRAL AND E CENTERED ARND 00Z MON WHERE AND WHEN THE DYNAMIC
FORCING WL BE SHARPEST. ALTHOUGH THE SHARPER UPPER FORCING WL EXIT
ON MON MRNG...LINGERING LLVL CYC NE FLOW AND SOME DEEPER MSTR SHOULD
MAINTAIN LOTS OF CLDS AND SOME SCT SHOWERS. ALTHOUGH H85 TEMPS ARE
PROGGED TO FALL TO ARND 0C BY 00Z TUE...ALL THE PCPN SHOULD BE IN
THE FORM OF RA WITH H85 TEMPS IN THE 2-5C RANGE MOST OF THE TIME.
MON NGT INTO TUE...ALTHOUGH HGTS WL BEGIN TO RISE IN THE WAKE OF THE
DIGGING SHRTWV INTO THE SE GREAT LKS...SOME MODELS SHOW SHARPER CYC
NE FLOW LINGERING INTO TUE MRNG. THIS SETUP MAY BE FAVORABLE FOR
MORE LK CLDS/EVEN A FEW SPRINKLES LINGERING A BIT LONGER FOR AREAS
NEAR LK SUP...MAINLY OVER THE NCENTRAL. BUT AS SFC HI PRES BUILDS
SLOWLY SE ON TUE...EXPECT ANY LINGERING CLDS TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE AND
GIVE WAY TO A MOSUNNY AFTN.
WED/THU...EXPECT MOCLR SKIES WITH SFC HI PRES UNDER UPR RDG
EXTENDING FM THE PLAINS INTO THE UPR GREAT LKS. WITH H85 TEMPS UP TO
8 TO 9C...EXPECT ABV NORMAL MAX TEMPS BOTH DAYS. BUT CLEAR SKIES/LGT
WINDS AT NGT WL SUPPORT A LARGE DIURNAL TEMP RANGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 138 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014
AT KIWD...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GIVE WAY TO IFR TOWARD
DAYBREAK AS LOW PRESSURE OVER NRN MN BEGINS TO CROSS THE AREA WITH
RAIN DEVEVLOPING AND INCREASING NRLY UPSLOPE FLOW.
AT KSAW AND KCMX...WITH WEAK WINDS OVERNIGHT AND LACK OF DRY AIR
ADVECTION...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL PERSIST WITH LIFR/VLIFR
CONDITIONS NEAR AIRPORT MINS AT TIMES. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH TODAY WILL SWITCH WINDS TO NORTHERLY BY MID-LATE MORNING
WHICH WILL RESULT IN CONTINUATION OF LOW CLOUDS...AT LEAST AS LOW AS
IFR. VSBY MAY IMPROVE FOR A TIME THOUGH...BEFORE STEADIER RAIN AND
GUSTY WINDS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT
KSAW UNDER FAVORABLY NRLY FLOW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014
AS A LO PRES DEEPENS NEAR JAMES BAY TODAY...EXPECT NNW GALES TO
35-40 KTS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO SAT MORNING
OVER ALL BUT FAR WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. CONTINUED GALE WARNINGS
ISSUED YESTERDAY. ISSUED GALE WARNINGS FOR THE LAKE MICHIGAN
NEARSHORE WATERS AND THE NORTHERN BAY OF GREEN BAY AS AXIS OF
HIGHEST WINDS WILL EXTEND INTO THAT AREA BY THIS EVENING BEFORE THE
FREQUENT GALE FORCE GUSTS DIMINISH ON SAT MORNING. AS A HI PRES
RIDGE APPROACHES FROM THE W ON SAT...THE STRONG WINDS WILL DIMINISH
W-E. ALTHOUGH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE/SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK...NO STRONG WINDS ARE
EXPECTED.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 11 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LSZ266-
267.
GALE WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LSZ244-245-
248-249-264-265.
GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
LSZ250-251.
GALE WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LSZ242-243-246-247-263.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
LMZ221-248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON MS
1023 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014
.UPDATE...ONLY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS IN HOURLY AND MAX TEMPERATURES
WERE MADE TO GOING FORECAST FOR TODAY. ALL OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS
ARE ON TRACK.
.DISCUSSION...DRY AIR CONTINUES TO RESIDE OVER THE REGION AND
COUPLED WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXPECT ANOTHER SUNNY DAY ACROSS
THE REGION. WITH SUCH DRY AIR IN PLACE, TEMPERATURES HAVE REBOUNDED
QUICKLY WITH SOLID 4-6F DEGREE JUMPS PER HOUR THIS MORNING. HAVE
BUMPED UP HOURLY TEMPS TO FOLLOW SUIT WITH RESULTANT EQUALING 1-2F
DEGREE INCREASE IN MAX HIGHS FOR SELECT AREAS. NEW GFS LAMP GUIDANCE
LOOKS TO HANDLE THIS WELL WITH FURTHER RAP SUPPORT INDICATING NEAR
21.5C H925 TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON. NO OTHER CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST
FOR TODAY WERE MADE.
UPDATES ARE OUT AND AN UPDATED AVIATION CAN BE FOUND DIRECTLY BELOW.
/ALLEN/
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST TAF SITES THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN KHBG WHERE MVFR VISIBILITIES
WILL DEVELOP IN FOG AFTER 18/06Z AND LINGER UNTIL AROUND 18/14Z./26/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...A CLIPPER-TYPE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRIVE
A DRY COLD FRONT TOWARD OUR REGION BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON TODAY.
IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT PATCHY HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL STREAM
OVERHEAD WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL WINDS HELPING BOOST
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL (INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S).
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT FRONT WILL BEGIN PUSHING INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE WARMER THAN PAST NIGHTS CONSIDERING THE LOW LEVEL
MIXING FACTOR WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING A GREAT DEAL. HIGH
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE WHICH WILL ALSO HELP LIMIT COOLING SOMEWHAT.
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL ENOUGH PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE COULD CONGREGATE
TO BRING SOME PATCHY FOG TO SOUTHERN ZONES BY SATURDAY
MORNING...ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS NOT EXPECTED.
THE COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS THROUGH SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE REGION BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT SOLID COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LAG THE WIND
SHIFT ENOUGH TO REALLY ONLY RESULT IN SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN NORTHERN ZONES. ELSEWHERE SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL
ONLY BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN TODAY...ALTHOUGH NOT HOT BY ANY
STRETCH.
BUT EVERYBODY WILL FEEL THE COOL DOWN ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE SINKS SOUTH AND POST-FRONTAL WINDS SLACK INTO THE EVENING.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP INTO THE 40S IN MOST AREAS BY DAWN
SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH PERHAPS NOT FALLING BELOW THE 50 DEGREE MARK IN
FAR SOUTHERN ZONES. /BB/
LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS AUTUMN SEEMS TO FINALLY BE WANTING TO STAY AT
LEAST FOR A LITTLE WHILE.
FOLLOWING SATURDAYS FROPA...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN OVERHEAD FOR
SUNDAY AND MOSTLY MONDAY...ALLOWING FOR GRADUALLY WARMING
TEMPERATURES BUT REMAINING NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. READINGS WILL SLOWLY GET BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID
80S. THE SFC HIGH WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST LATE MONDAY IN RESPONSE
TO ANOTHER APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND SFC LOW OVER MICHIGAN. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL DIVE SOUTH INTO OUR REGION TUESDAY. WITH
LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...THIS SHOULD MAINLY BE A DRY FRONT
THAT SHOULD BRING OUR TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN INTO THE 70S FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AS WELL
KEEPING CONDITIONS COOL AND DRY. UPPER RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHWEST
UNITED STATES WILL EVENTUALLY TRY TO NOSE INTO OUR REGION AND MODELS
SHOW A DRY PATTERN CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEKEND/LATE OCTOBER. /28/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 84 56 81 48 / 0 2 2 0
MERIDIAN 85 53 81 45 / 0 0 3 0
VICKSBURG 85 54 81 47 / 0 4 1 0
HATTIESBURG 85 57 85 51 / 0 1 4 2
NATCHEZ 83 58 81 51 / 0 1 2 1
GREENVILLE 85 55 75 48 / 0 5 1 0
GREENWOOD 84 53 76 46 / 0 5 1 0
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
ALLEN/26/BB/28
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GLASGOW MT
742 PM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014
.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
EVENING UPDATE...
CHANGES FOR THIS EVENING WERE FOCUSED AROUND THE DEBATE FOR FOG.
WIND FIELDS AND RH FIELDS WERE TWEAKED. RH INCREASED SLIGHTLY AND
WIND DROPPED BY ABOUT ONE KNOT. FACTORS AGAINST FOG DEVELOPMENT ARE
DOWNSLOPE WEST WINDS WITH A DRYING ABILITY FOR AMBIENT
CONDITIONS. FOG MAY HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE AT SHELTERED RIVER
BOTTOMS WHERE MICRO-SCALE EFFECTS SUCH AS COLD AIR DRAINAGE AND
INVERSIONS CAN KICK IN ALONG WITH EXTRA MOISTURE FROM THE RIVER
ITSELF. THIS WILL BE A CONFINED AREA LIMITED TO JUST ABOVE THE
RIVERS AND WILL LIKELY NOT ADVECT FAR DUE TO CALM WINDS UNDER THE
LOCALIZED INVERSIONS. NAM AND NAMDNG5 ARE VERY GUNG HO TOWARDS FOG
ON RIVER VALLEYS WITH 5 MILE WIDE BANDS DROPPING TO 1/4 MILE
OBSCURATION... BUT IN EXPERIENCE THESE MODELS ARE OVERLY
AGGRESSIVE IN NORTHEAST MONTANA. IF FOG FORMS IT WILL BE MORE
SIMILAR TO THE HRRR SOLUTIONS WHERE NARROWLY CONFINED SHELTERED BANDS
ABOVE THE RIVER VALLEYSHAVE TROUBLE MAKING IT BELOW 6 SM. GAH
PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
THE SHALLOW SHORT-WAVE TROUGH THAT KNOCKED DOWN THE RIDGE TODAY
WILL WORK ITSELF THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA THIS EVENING. WITH
ESSENTIALLY NO MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE...THE
MAIN EFFECT WILL BE MAINTAINING WESTERLY WIND TONIGHT AND BRINGING
IN CLEARING SKIES LATER TONIGHT.
SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVER MONTANA. WITH GENERALLY
CLEAR SKIES TO BEGIN THE DAY...AND INCREASING THICKNESS
HEIGHTS...THIS WILL LEAD TO A GENERAL WARMING. EXPECT HIGHS
AROUND 10F TO 15F DEGREES HIGHER THAN SATURDAY. WIND WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
MONDAY...THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST OF MONTANA AS A DEEP
BUT NARROW TROUGH NUDGES UP AGAINST THE WEST COAST. CONTINUED
SUNNY SKIES AND ELEVATED THICKNESS HEIGHTS...ALONG WITH A
SOUTHERLY BREEZE...WILL GENERATE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD.
EXPECT HIGHS OF 15F TO 20F HIGHER THAN NORMAL. SCT
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
GOING FORECAST IN EXCELLENT SHAPE WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANGE OVER
WHAT WAS DISCUSSED BELOW. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE...MAINLY TO
TREND TOWARD THE LATEST CONSENSUS OF THE FORECAST MODELS. GILCHRIST
PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROF EXPECTED TO LIFT FROM THE WEST COAST...THROUGH THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE THEN REBOUNDS ACROSS THE REGION BY THE
END OF THE WEEK.
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE
WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY NIGHT.
COOLER AND SLIGHTLY BREEZY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR WEDNESDAY
WITH THE UPPER WAVE ALTHOUGH MODELS DIFFERING ON THE STRENGTH OF
THIS WAVE AND THE AMOUNT OF COOLING AND WIND AVAILABLE.
WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE
DRY...THE AMOUNT OF WARMING REALIZED WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAR NORTH
THE PACIFIC JET CROSSES THE ROCKIES. THE GFS KEEPS THE RIDGE
SUPPRESSED WITH THE JET OVER MONTANA FOR COOLER CONDITIONS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE EC AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE CMC PUSH
THE JET TOWARD CANADA ALLOWING FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN
IN THE STATE FOR FRIDAY. ALL MODELS SUGGEST STACKED WESTERLY FLOW
FOR POTENTIAL WINDY CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY AND/OR FRIDAY. EBERT
&&
.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR.
SYNOPSIS: UPPER RIDGING WILL RULE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...MAKING
EXCELLENT FLYING WEATHER.
CIGS: SCT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...BECOMING SKC-SCT200 THIS EVENING.
VISIBILITY: UNRESTRICTED.
WIND: WESTERLY AROUND 10KTS...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT LESS
THAN 6KTS THIS EVENING.
GILCHRIST
&&
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1124 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2014
TEMPERATURES WILL PROVIDE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES INTO THE MID
PART OF NEXT WEEK. THERE IS SOME CHANCE OF PCPN BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY.
AN IMPRESSIVE 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS NOTED OVER THE DAKOTAS
WITH 12 HR HEIGHT FALLS OF ABOUT 150 METERS OVER WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA THIS MORNING. LATEST RUC INITIALIZATION IN COMBINATION WITH
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED THE CENTER OF THE CIRCULATION WAS OVER
NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME LIGHTNING STRIKES
WERE NOTED JUST AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE.
850 MB CHART FROM 12Z THIS MORNING SHOWED A THERMAL RIDGE FROM WEST
TEXAS UP INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. THIS HAS ALREADY BEEN SHIFTING
SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA AS OF MID AFTERNOON. FAIRLY DEEP
MIXING ALONG/BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA HELPED
PUSH TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE 70S...BUT COOLING WAS ALREADY TAKING
PLACE IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. MODEST LOW LEVEL GRADIENT TONIGHT MAY
HELP KEEP WINDS UP...SO RAISED THEM A BIT COMPARED TO LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE. THE AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS CURRENTLY OFF TO OUR
NORTH MAY MOVE INTO OUR NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES LATER
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING (MOSTLY NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM ALBION
TO FREMONT AND RED OAK).
OTHERWISE...WE LOOK FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES (COMPARED TO TODAY) FOR
BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS BUILDS INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT SO KEPT LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER AND MID 30S (AT OR
BELOW MOS GUIDANCE). SURFACE WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
AND INCREASE LATER SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING...THEN ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA SHIFTING WINDS TO THE
NORTH OR NORTHWEST. GOOD MIXING WITH THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH HIGHS
INTO THE 60S MOST AREAS WITH SOME HIGHS AROUND 70 WESTERN ZONES.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2014
THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY AT THE BEGINNING BUT MAY TURN
WET BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY.
LATEST MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE
PATTERN AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...WITH A 500 MB RIDGE FROM
WYOMING UP INTO ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN. A CLOSED LOW WILL BE
NEAR THE ARIZONA/CALIFORNIA/MEXICO BORDER REGION AND A TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM ALASKA DOWN TO NEAR 30 N 135 W. SOME
ENERGY WILL MOVE EAST OUT OF THAT TROUGH IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC
AND BE OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION BY WEDNESDAY. THIS
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL PROVIDE OUT NEXT GOOD CHANCE FOR PCPN. ALTHOUGH
THE MODELS ARE NOT IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT BY THAT TIME (GFS IS WET
FOR OUR AREA WHILE THE ECMWF HOLDS THE PCPN MAINLY TO OUR WEST)...
THE GENERAL PATTERN SUGGESTS LOW CHANCE CATEGORY POPS ARE NEEDED
FOR NOW. HIGHS FROM MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY 60S
TO LOWER 790S WITH LOWS IN THE 40S OR UPPER 30S.
&&
.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2014
A LARGE AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD TAF SITES
BEHIND A REINFORCING FRONT THAT WAS ALSO BRINGING INCREASING NW
WINDS TO THE REGION. ALTHOUGH CIGS INITIALLY COULD BE ABOVE
FL030...THEY SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE MVFR RANGE AND COULD
PERSIST WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT KOMA AND KOFK. IT
APPEARS LINCOLN WILL BE ON SW EDGE OF THE CLOUDS AND THUS ONLY A
TEMPO GROUP WAS CARRIED WITH INITIAL 06Z FORECAST.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...CHERMOK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAS VEGAS NV
900 AM PDT FRI OCT 17 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BRING HIGH CLOUDS AND VERY
ISOLATED SHOWERS TO NORTHWEST ARIZONA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER
WEAK SYSTEM DUE INTO THE AREA MID NEXT WEEK MAY BRING HIGH CLOUDS
AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES BUT OTHERWISE DRY AND MILD WEATHER
WILL PERSIST.
&&
.UPDATE...CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ACROSS MOHAVE COUNTY BACK INTO EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY. RADAR
ALSO DEPICTING LIGHT SHOWERS IN THAT AREA BUT SO FAR NOT SEEING ANY
MEASURABLE RAIN REACHING ANY RAIN GAGES. HIGH CLOUD COVER WAS
INCREASING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING PACIFIC TROUGH. I TWEAKED SKY COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR
LATEST SATELLITE AND MODEL TRENDS...INCREASING SKY COVER TODAY AND
TONIGHT OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALSO INCREASED
POPS A LITTLE TO MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS A BIT FARTHER
NORTH IN MOHAVE COUNTY TODAY...BASED ON LATEST HRRR AND LAST NIGHTS
ECMWF. -HARRISON-
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
210 AM PDT FRI OCT 17 2014
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WHICH HAS BEEN SPINNING OFF THE COAST OF NORTHWEST
MEXICO HAS BEGUN TO EJECT NORTHEAST TOWARDS ARIZONA AND IS STREAMING
A BROAD DECK OF HIGH CLOUD COVER ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...MAINLY
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 15. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY LIFT
NORTHEAST WHILE WEAKENING AND WONT BE MUCH OF A FACTOR FOR OUR
SENSIBLE WEATHER AFTER TODAY. BUT IN THE MEANTIME...WIDESPREAD HIGH
CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLY SOME VIRGA SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS MOHAVE COUNTY.
MEANWHILE AS THAT SYSTEM EXITS...A PACIFIC TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE
WEST COAST, WITH THE ENERGY SPLITTING AS IT DOES SO. THE RESULT WILL
BE A WEAK TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SATURDAY AND
SLOWLY CLOSING OFF AS IT PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS ARIZONA ON SUNDAY.
WHILE DYNAMICS WILL BE POOR...ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL
BE PRESENT FOR SOME VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS PRIMARILY THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF LINCOLN AND MOHAVE COUNTIES OVER THE WEEKEND.
TRENDED POPS SIMILAR TO THAT OF THE SREF BUT NOT QUITE AS
AGGRESSIVE, AS IT PAINTS POPS AS HIGH AS 50 PERCENT ACROSS EASTERN
MOHAVE COUNTY SUNDAY EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO BECOME
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS BUT I KEPT
THUNDER OUT OF THE GRIDS AS ANY LIGHTNING ACTIVITY WILL BE QUITE
ISOLATED.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS PERSISTING OVER THE REGION THROUGH NEXT WEEK. WE WILL SEE
ANOTHER OPEN PACIFIC TROUGH APPROACH THE WEST COAST MONDAY THEN MOVE
INLAND AND SPLIT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH MOST OF THE ENERGY
LIFTING NORTHEAST OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. SOUTH WINDS WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...ESPECIALLY OVER INYO COUNTY AND
NEARBY WEST CENTRAL NEVADA. GUSTS SHOULD GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 35
MPH EXCEPT HIGHER OVER THE RIDGES OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA AND WHITE
MOUNTAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE WEAKER SOUTHERN
BRANCH OF THE TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN
AND MOJAVE DESERT TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH VERY LIMITED
MOISTURE BRUSHING THE SOUTHERN SIERRA AND SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN.
MOISTURE APPEARS TOO SPARSE TO MENTION ANY CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
IN OUR FORECAST AREA. THE TROUGH THEN MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND IS
REPLACED BY A RIDGE EXPANDING FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST STATES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP
TEMPS RUNNING A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL WITH ONLY SLIGHT LOWER TEMPS
WHEN THE TROUGH PASSES TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SCT-BKN SKIES AOA 25KFT WILL PREVAIL
ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AIRFIELD TODAY. LIGHT EASTERLY
WINDS AOB 9KTS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH GUSTS MAY
OCCASIONALLY EXCEED 9KTS FOR BRIEF PERIODS.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA WITH BKN CLOUD COVER PREVAILING SOUTH OF A KNXP-KIFP-KGCN-KAZC
LINE. SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT AND VIRGA POSSIBLE AS WELL THIS
AFTERNOON.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...OUTLER
LONG TERM...ADAIR
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1236 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014
MADE ADDITIONAL CHANGES TO SKY COVER THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.
OVERCAST SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF REGION WITH A FEW BREAKS
ACROSS NORTHWEST. GFS/MAV GUIDANCE WAS IGNORED...AS IT IS WAY TOO
OPTIMISTIC. FOLLOWED MORE OF A NAM/HRRR BLEND WHICH IS VERIFYING
BETTER AND HOLDS ON TO CLOUD COVER INTO SATURDAY MORNING...WHILE
HITTING IT HARDEST ACROSS CENTRAL ND. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH
TRENDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND MAKE ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS AS
NEEDED. OTHERWISE...FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 915 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND ONLY CHANGES WERE TO BLEND CURRENT
OBS TO FORECAST. MAIN ISSUE TODAY WILL BE CLOUD COVER AND WHEN
CLEARING WILL OCCUR. WATER VAPOR CONTINUES TO SHOW WEAK SHORTWAVE
ENTERING WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...SUPPORTING ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER
WITH REMAINDER OF STATE OVERCAST PER 11-3.9 IMAGERY AND EARLY
MORNING VIS IMAGERY AND OBS. SOME DISCREPANCY BETWEEN MODELS WITH
REGARD TO TIMING OF CLEARING WITH GFS/MAV MUCH MORE OPTIMISTIC
THAN NAM/HRRR GUIDANCE. WILL CONTINUE THE SLOWER CLEARING THAT IS
ALREADY DEPICTED IN FORECAST GRIDS. NAM/HRRR ARE INDICATING CLOUDS
LINGERING IN CENTRAL/EASTERN ND WELL INTO NIGHT. WILL SEE HOW
TRENDS DEVELOP TODAY BEFORE ADJUSTING SKY TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...WINDS ARE STILL GUSTY CENTRAL/EAST BUT SHOULD
GRADUALLY TAPER DOWN DURING THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. A FEW BREAKS IN THE LOWER MVFR
CEILINGS IN THE WEST IS BEING COVERED BY A BAND OF HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON SKY COVER THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS SO NO UPDATES NEEDED HERE. ONLY CHANGES WERE TO
UPDATE LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014
LATEST SUITE OF SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY
CONDITIONS COVERING JUST ABOUT ALL OF WESTERN/CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SOUTHWEST. NAM BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS AND THE LATEST HRRR CEILING FORECAST KEEP A NEARLY
SATURATED LAYER...ALBEIT SHALLOW...FROM 900MB TO 850MB ACROSS
MAINLY CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY. THE WEST WILL SEE A RETURN TO A
PARTLY CLOUDY SKY BY LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS
MOISTURE IS NOT AS DEEP AND SUBSIDENCE/DRYING OCCURS BEHIND A
DEPARTING SHORTWAVE THIS AFTERNOON. A H85 COLD POCKET OF 0C TO +2C
SLIDES INTO THE EAST CENTRAL ZONES TODAY KEEPING UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS IN PLACE AS STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE 925-H85 LAYER ARE
MAINTAINED FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS SOUTH INTO THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY. THUS WITH THE EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS UPSTREAM PER FOG/STRATUS
IMAGERY LOOP...IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE LATEST TIME HEIGHT RH CROSS
SECTIONS...CLOUDS/BRISK WINDS WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY EVENING
BEFORE CLEARING BEGINS TO TAKE PLACE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S NORTH AND EAST TO LOWER 50S SOUTHWEST.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS TWO SHORTWAVES...THE FIRST WAS
SHORTWAVE WAS CIRCULATING OVER NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA...AND THIS IS
FORECAST TO SLIDE INTO SOUTHEAST MONTANA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LARGE
SCALE ASCENT IS LACKING FOR ANYTHING MUCH MORE THAN CLOUDS THROUGH
THE MORNING IN THE SOUTHWEST...THEN AS MENTIONED ABOVE SOME CLEARING
THIS AFTERNOON ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SHORTWAVE. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL/NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN...AND THIS IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF NORTH DAKOTA TODAY
AS IT MOVES INTO MANITOBA AND MINNESOTA. DECREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS 30 TO 35F.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014
THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE A WARMING TREND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL NOT BE UNTIL THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIMEFRAME
NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE
PLAINS THIS WEEKEND FOR A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. SOUTHERLY WINDS
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE 50S CENTRAL TO THE LOWER 60S WEST.
ON SUNDAY A WEAK FRONT WILL BRING NORTHWEST WINDS AT 10 TO 15
MPH...BUT THE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT IS MILD PACIFIC AIR AND HIGHS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE STATE.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST ACROSS
THE PLAINS. HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER
60S NORTHEAST TO LOWER 70S SOUTHWEST.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES...PUTTING THE DAKOTAS UNDER A SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. THIS WILL BRING SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. CURRENTLY THE MODEL BLEND SOLUTION BRINGS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
INTO THE WEST WEDNESDAY...AND CENTRAL/EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LATEST DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN
WEAKER/DRIER WITH THIS FEATURE...WITH THE MAIN ENERGY ALOFT LIFTING
WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...COULD SEE A DRY
FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURES COOL ONLY SLIGHTLY WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY...BUT IT WILL REMAIN MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014
MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION WITH CIGS AROUND
1000 FEET. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF CLEARING ACROSS THE
WEST...INCLUDING KISN AND KDIK. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
WEAKEN ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JNS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...JNS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
915 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 915 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND ONLY CHANGES WERE TO BLEND CURRENT
OBS TO FORECAST. MAIN ISSUE TODAY WILL BE CLOUD COVER AND WHEN
CLEARING WILL OCCUR. WATER VAPOR CONTINUES TO SHOW WEAK SHORTWAVE
ENTERING WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...SUPPORTING ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER
WITH REMAINDER OF STATE OVERCAST PER 11-3.9 IMAGERY AND EARLY
MORNING VIS IMAGERY AND OBS. SOME DISCREPANCY BETWEEN MODELS WITH
REGARD TO TIMING OF CLEARING WITH GFS/MAV MUCH MORE OPTIMISTIC
THAN NAM/HRRR GUIDANCE. WILL CONTINUE THE SLOWER CLEARING THAT IS
ALREADY DEPICTED IN FORECAST GRIDS. NAM/HRRR ARE INDICATING CLOUDS
LINGERING IN CENTRAL/EASTERN ND WELL INTO NIGHT. WILL SEE HOW
TRENDS DEVELOP TODAY BEFORE ADJUSTING SKY TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...WINDS ARE STILL GUSTY CENTRAL/EAST BUT SHOULD
GRADUALLY TAPER DOWN DURING THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. A FEW BREAKS IN THE LOWER MVFR
CEILINGS IN THE WEST IS BEING COVERED BY A BAND OF HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON SKY COVER THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS SO NO UPDATES NEEDED HERE. ONLY CHANGES WERE TO
UPDATE LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014
LATEST SUITE OF SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY
CONDITIONS COVERING JUST ABOUT ALL OF WESTERN/CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SOUTHWEST. NAM BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS AND THE LATEST HRRR CEILING FORECAST KEEP A NEARLY
SATURATED LAYER...ALBEIT SHALLOW...FROM 900MB TO 850MB ACROSS
MAINLY CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY. THE WEST WILL SEE A RETURN TO A
PARTLY CLOUDY SKY BY LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS
MOISTURE IS NOT AS DEEP AND SUBSIDENCE/DRYING OCCURS BEHIND A
DEPARTING SHORTWAVE THIS AFTERNOON. A H85 COLD POCKET OF 0C TO +2C
SLIDES INTO THE EAST CENTRAL ZONES TODAY KEEPING UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS IN PLACE AS STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE 925-H85 LAYER ARE
MAINTAINED FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS SOUTH INTO THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY. THUS WITH THE EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS UPSTREAM PER FOG/STRATUS
IMAGERY LOOP...IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE LATEST TIME HEIGHT RH CROSS
SECTIONS...CLOUDS/BRISK WINDS WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY EVENING
BEFORE CLEARING BEGINS TO TAKE PLACE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S NORTH AND EAST TO LOWER 50S SOUTHWEST.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS TWO SHORTWAVES...THE FIRST WAS
SHORTWAVE WAS CIRCULATING OVER NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA...AND THIS IS
FORECAST TO SLIDE INTO SOUTHEAST MONTANA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LARGE
SCALE ASCENT IS LACKING FOR ANYTHING MUCH MORE THAN CLOUDS THROUGH
THE MORNING IN THE SOUTHWEST...THEN AS MENTIONED ABOVE SOME CLEARING
THIS AFTERNOON ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SHORTWAVE. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL/NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN...AND THIS IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF NORTH DAKOTA TODAY
AS IT MOVES INTO MANITOBA AND MINNESOTA. DECREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS 30 TO 35F.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014
THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE A WARMING TREND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL NOT BE UNTIL THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIMEFRAME
NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE
PLAINS THIS WEEKEND FOR A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. SOUTHERLY WINDS
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE 50S CENTRAL TO THE LOWER 60S WEST.
ON SUNDAY A WEAK FRONT WILL BRING NORTHWEST WINDS AT 10 TO 15
MPH...BUT THE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT IS MILD PACIFIC AIR AND HIGHS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE STATE.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST ACROSS
THE PLAINS. HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER
60S NORTHEAST TO LOWER 70S SOUTHWEST.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES...PUTTING THE DAKOTAS UNDER A SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. THIS WILL BRING SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. CURRENTLY THE MODEL BLEND SOLUTION BRINGS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
INTO THE WEST WEDNESDAY...AND CENTRAL/EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LATEST DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN
WEAKER/DRIER WITH THIS FEATURE...WITH THE MAIN ENERGY ALOFT LIFTING
WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...COULD SEE A DRY
FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURES COOL ONLY SLIGHTLY WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY...BUT IT WILL REMAIN MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A LARGE SWATH
OF MVFR CIGS OVER THE AERODROMES...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. EXPECTING KMOT/KBIS/KJMS TO REMAIN IN MVFR STATUS THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. KISN WILL BEGIN TO SEE IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR BY 17Z
FRIDAY...AND KDIK BY 19Z FRIDAY. GUSTY NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TO 30KT
WILL CONTINUE AT KJMS THROUGH 21Z FRIDAY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JNS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
639 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. A FEW BREAKS IN THE LOWER MVFR
CEILINGS IN THE WEST IS BEING COVERED BY A BAND OF HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON SKY COVER THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS SO NO UPDATES NEEDED HERE. ONLY CHANGES WERE TO
UPDATE LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014
LATEST SUITE OF SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY
CONDITIONS COVERING JUST ABOUT ALL OF WESTERN/CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SOUTHWEST. NAM BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS AND THE LATEST HRRR CEILING FORECAST KEEP A NEARLY
SATURATED LAYER...ALBEIT SHALLOW...FROM 900MB TO 850MB ACROSS
MAINLY CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY. THE WEST WILL SEE A RETURN TO A
PARTLY CLOUDY SKY BY LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS
MOISTURE IS NOT AS DEEP AND SUBSIDENCE/DRYING OCCURS BEHIND A
DEPARTING SHORTWAVE THIS AFTERNOON. A H85 COLD POCKET OF 0C TO +2C
SLIDES INTO THE EAST CENTRAL ZONES TODAY KEEPING UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS IN PLACE AS STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE 925-H85 LAYER ARE
MAINTAINED FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS SOUTH INTO THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY. THUS WITH THE EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS UPSTREAM PER FOG/STRATUS
IMAGERY LOOP...IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE LATEST TIME HEIGHT RH CROSS
SECTIONS...CLOUDS/BRISK WINDS WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY EVENING
BEFORE CLEARING BEGINS TO TAKE PLACE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S NORTH AND EAST TO LOWER 50S SOUTHWEST.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS TWO SHORTWAVES...THE FIRST WAS
SHORTWAVE WAS CIRCULATING OVER NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA...AND THIS IS
FORECAST TO SLIDE INTO SOUTHEAST MONTANA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LARGE
SCALE ASCENT IS LACKING FOR ANYTHING MUCH MORE THAN CLOUDS THROUGH
THE MORNING IN THE SOUTHWEST...THEN AS MENTIONED ABOVE SOME CLEARING
THIS AFTERNOON ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SHORTWAVE. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL/NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN...AND THIS IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF NORTH DAKOTA TODAY
AS IT MOVES INTO MANITOBA AND MINNESOTA. DECREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS 30 TO 35F.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014
THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE A WARMING TREND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL NOT BE UNTIL THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIMEFRAME
NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE
PLAINS THIS WEEKEND FOR A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. SOUTHERLY WINDS
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE 50S CENTRAL TO THE LOWER 60S WEST.
ON SUNDAY A WEAK FRONT WILL BRING NORTHWEST WINDS AT 10 TO 15
MPH...BUT THE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT IS MILD PACIFIC AIR AND HIGHS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE STATE.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST ACROSS
THE PLAINS. HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER
60S NORTHEAST TO LOWER 70S SOUTHWEST.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES...PUTTING THE DAKOTAS UNDER A SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. THIS WILL BRING SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. CURRENTLY THE MODEL BLEND SOLUTION BRINGS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
INTO THE WEST WEDNESDAY...AND CENTRAL/EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LATEST DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN
WEAKER/DRIER WITH THIS FEATURE...WITH THE MAIN ENERGY ALOFT LIFTING
WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...COULD SEE A DRY
FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURES COOL ONLY SLIGHTLY WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY...BUT IT WILL REMAIN MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A LARGE SWATH
OF MVFR CIGS OVER THE AERODROMES...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. EXPECTING KMOT/KBIS/KJMS TO REMAIN IN MVFR STATUS THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. KISN WILL BEGIN TO SEE IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR BY 17Z
FRIDAY...AND KDIK BY 19Z FRIDAY. GUSTY NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TO 30KT
WILL CONTINUE AT KJMS THROUGH 21Z FRIDAY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
309 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014
LATEST SUITE OF SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY
CONDITIONS COVERING JUST ABOUT ALL OF WESTERN/CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SOUTHWEST. NAM BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS AND THE LATEST HRRR CEILING FORECAST KEEP A NEARLY
SATURATED LAYER...ALBEIT SHALLOW...FROM 900MB TO 850MB ACROSS
MAINLY CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY. THE WEST WILL SEE A RETURN TO A
PARTLY CLOUDY SKY BY LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS
MOISTURE IS NOT AS DEEP AND SUBSIDENCE/DRYING OCCURS BEHIND A
DEPARTING SHORTWAVE THIS AFTERNOON. A H85 COLD POCKET OF 0C TO +2C
SLIDES INTO THE EAST CENTRAL ZONES TODAY KEEPING UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS IN PLACE AS STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE 925-H85 LAYER ARE
MAINTAINED FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS SOUTH INTO THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY. THUS WITH THE EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS UPSTREAM PER FOG/STRATUS
IMAGERY LOOP...IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE LATEST TIME HEIGHT RH CROSS
SECTIONS...CLOUDS/BRISK WINDS WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY EVENING
BEFORE CLEARING BEGINS TO TAKE PLACE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S NORTH AND EAST TO LOWER 50S SOUTHWEST.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS TWO SHORTWAVES...THE FIRST WAS
SHORTWAVE WAS CIRCULATING OVER NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA...AND THIS IS
FORECAST TO SLIDE INTO SOUTHEAST MONTANA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LARGE
SCALE ASCENT IS LACKING FOR ANYTHING MUCH MORE THAN CLOUDS THROUGH
THE MORNING IN THE SOUTHWEST...THEN AS MENTIONED ABOVE SOME CLEARING
THIS AFTERNOON ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SHORTWAVE. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL/NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN...AND THIS IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF NORTH DAKOTA TODAY
AS IT MOVES INTO MANITOBA AND MINNESOTA. DECREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS 30 TO 35F.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014
THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE A WARMING TREND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL NOT BE UNTIL THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIMEFRAME
NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE
PLAINS THIS WEEKEND FOR A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. SOUTHERLY WINDS
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE 50S CENTRAL TO THE LOWER 60S WEST.
ON SUNDAY A WEAK FRONT WILL BRING NORTHWEST WINDS AT 10 TO 15
MPH...BUT THE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT IS MILD PACIFIC AIR AND HIGHS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE STATE.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST ACROSS
THE PLAINS. HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER
60S NORTHEAST TO LOWER 70S SOUTHWEST.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES...PUTTING THE DAKOTAS UNDER A SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. THIS WILL BRING SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. CURRENTLY THE MODEL BLEND SOLUTION BRINGS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
INTO THE WEST WEDNESDAY...AND CENTRAL/EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LATEST DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN
WEAKER/DRIER WITH THIS FEATURE...WITH THE MAIN ENERGY ALOFT LIFTING
WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...COULD SEE A DRY
FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURES COOL ONLY SLIGHTLY WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY...BUT IT WILL REMAIN MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014
THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW MVFR
CIGS OVER KMOT/KBIS/KJMS...AND A MIX OF LOW VFR AND MVFR CIGS AT
KISN AND KDIK. MVFR CIGS WILL DOMINATE AT KMOT/KBIS/KJMS THROUGH
03Z SATURDAY...WHILE LOW VFR/MVFR CIGS AT KISN/KDIK WILL IMPROVE
TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS TO 30KT WILL CONTINUE AT
KJMS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
943 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...BRINGING AN END TO THE SHOWERS. SKIES WILL CLEAR
OVERNIGHT BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FROST OVERNIGHT IN SOME LOCATIONS. A DRY AND COOL
SUNDAY IS EXPECTED...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW NORMAL WITH
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
MID-EVENING GOES SATELLITE DATA /11.0-3.9 MICRON DIFFERENCE
CHANNEL/ SHOWS BACK EDGE OF STRATOCUMULUS FIELD RUNNING FROM PEORIA
IL TO KALAMAZOO MI. PUTTING A TIME TREND ON THIS LEADS TO THIS
CLEARING LINE REACHING A MIDDLETOWN TO COLUMBUS LINE AT APPROX 4
AM...WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TIME FOR A LATE TEMP DROP AND FROST
FORMATION NORTH OF THIS LINE. SOUTH OF THIS LINE /WHICH IS THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES OF CURRENT FROST ADVISORY/ IT COULD
REALLY GO EITHER WAY. IF LOW CLOUDS DEPART AFTER 5 AM...DOUBT
THERE IS ENOUGH TIME FOR FROST FORMATION BUT WILL BE CLOSE AS
SUNRISE IS NOT UNTIL CLOSE TO 8 AM. LATEST GUIDANCE DRIVES STRONG
DRYING AT 850MB THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT...HOWEVER A
DEVELOPING VERY STRONG INVERSION AT 900MB LATER IN THE NIGHT MAY
REALLY DELAY/MITIGATE MIXING OUT THE TOP OF A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER AND EFFECTIVELY LINGER CLOUDS. 19.18Z NAM IS VERY MUCH IN
THIS CAMP...AS ARE RECENT RAP RUNS. 19.18Z GFS REALLY BLOWS ALL
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AWAY...AND OVERLAYING MODEL RH FIELDS ATOP THE
SATELLITE DATA SUGGESTS THE NAM TOO BULLISH KEEPING RH AND GFS TOO
AGGRESSIVE. SO SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE IS PROBABLY CLOSER TO
REALITY...WHICH LEADS TO LOWER CONFIDENCE IN MAKING ANY CHANGES TO
TEMPS/CURRENT FROST ADVISORY. THINK BEST CHANCES IN WCNTL
OHIO/ECNTL IND /WHICH MAY FLIRT WITH A HARD FREEZE/ AND RAPIDLY
LOWERING CHANCES TO THE SOUTH/EAST FROM CVG TO ILN TO SOUTH/EAST
OF CMH. WE MAY BE A TIER OF COUNTIES TOO FAR SOUTH WITH ADVISORY
BUT CAN/T NITPICK AT THIS POINT WITH CONFIDENCE ON CLEARING WHERE
IT IS AT. BUT GIVEN THE BACK EDGE CONTINUES TO MOVE STEADILY...AND
SOME HOLES OPENING UP AHEAD OF THE BACK EDGE...FEEL COMFORTABLE
KEEPING ADVRY/TEMPS AS THEY ARE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AMPLE SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY WITH JUST SOME HIGH THIN CLOUDS AHEAD OF
NEXT APPROACHING S/WV FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WITH THE NW
FLOW EARLY BACKING A BIT AND CAA BECOMING MORE NEUTRAL...TEMPS IN
THE LOW TO MID 50S STILL LOOKS GOOD BUT RAISED SLIGHTLY IN THE SW
WHERE SOME LATE DAY WAA MAY BUMP TEMPS INTO THE UPR 50S.
MORE MODERATE TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS AND WARM AIR AHEAD OF THE NEXT S/WV TO DROP DOWN FROM CNTRL
LOWER CANADA THROUGH WESTERN GREAT LAKES. BEST MOISTURE REMAINS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN FCST AREA SO HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES
HERE. HAVE RAISED PRECIP CHANCES SLIGHTLY DURING THE DAY
MONDAY...THEN FAIRLY SLOW DEPARTURE WITH THE INCREASINGLY
AMPLIFIED UPR LEVEL PATTERN LINGERING THE UPR TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED MID/UPR LEVEL FLOW WITH A SHARP RIDGE OVER THE
NATIONS MID SECTION AND A TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING DOWN INTO THE MEAN TROF WILL PROVIDE A
CONTD CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACRS THE EAST.
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL...
WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S NORTH TO THE UPPER 50S SOUTH.
NUMERICAL MODEL SOLNS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING UPPER LOW CUTTING
OFF TO OUR EAST OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AT MID WEEK, WILL END
ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION EARLY WEDNESDAY. IN NORTHERLY FLOW
AROUND THIS UPPER LOW...SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD SOUTH INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. THIS HIGH WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER THRU THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE WED/THUR...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S. SOME
MODERATION TO TAKE PLACE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH HIGHS CLOSER TO
NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTH TO MIDDLE 60S SOUTH.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LARGE AREA OF LIGHT RAIN AND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT
SHIFTS SOUTHEAST OVER THE TAF SITES. VSBYS AND CIGS HAVE REMAINED
VFR BUT MVFR CIGS BECOMING MORE COMMON WITH THE APPROACH OF COOLER
TEMPERATURES/DEEPER SATURATION WITH THE RAIN. UPSTREAM
OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST VFR/OCNL MVFR TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT
WITH THE STRATUS IN THE WAKE OF THE RAIN. RATHER SHARP BACK EDGE
OF THE CLOUDS NOW OVER IL/MI PUSHING SOUTHEAST AROUND 25KTS. THIS
SHOULD PUT CLEARING INTO THE DAY/ILN/CMH/LCK TERMINALS SOMETIME
IN THE 06 TO 08Z TIMEFRAME...AND A LITTLE LATER AT CVG/LUK. THINK
THAT SOME EROSION WITHIN THE CLOUD SHIELD MAY SPEED THIS PROCESS
UP SO HAVE MOVED UP THE CLEARING TIME IN THE TAFS FROM PVS
ISSUANCE BY AN HOUR OR TWO. THINK MUCH OF SUNDAY IS FEW-SCT
CUMULUS GIVING WAY TO BKN CIRRUS VERY LATE IN THE TAF CYCLE. LIGHT
NWLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL TURN WLY THEN SWLY AS THE CENTER OF
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES VERY CLOSE TO THE REGION. CVG/LUK STAND THE
BEST CHANCE OF GOING VARIABLE/CALM FOR A FEW HOURS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
.OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR OHZ026-034-
035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>072-077-080.
KY...NONE.
IN...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR INZ050-058-
059-066-073-074.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JDR
NEAR TERM...BINAU
SHORT TERM...JDR
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...BINAU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
659 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT SHIFTING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT OVER
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OHIO. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL ALLOW COOL TEMPERATURES TO SPILL SOUTH AND COVER THE AREA
SATURDAY. A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL WEATHER SYSTEM WILL DIG SOUTHEAST
ACROSS OHIO AND KENTUCKY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BRINGING
A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS. IN ADDITION...THE COOL AIR FLOWING
OVER LAKE MICHIGAN MAY ALLOW A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
NORTHERN INDIANA AND AFFECT THE TRI STATE ON SATURDAY MORNING IN
ADVANCE OF THE STRONGER WAVE IN THE AFTERNOON. A DRY SUNDAY IS
EXPECTED WITH COOL TEMPERATURES LINGERING. LOOKING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...WITH A CHANCE OF
RAIN MOVING BACK INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES
INTO THE GREAT LAKES FROM CANADA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
17.18Z RAP ANALYSIS AND OBSERVATIONAL DATA /GOES WATER VAPOR DATA/
INDICATE A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING LAKE MICHIGAN AND
EASTERN WISCONSIN. AT THE SURFACE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...IS A
STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS WRN LOWER MICHIGAN...INDIANA...INTO
SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS. LOW CLOUDS ARE STREAKING QUICKLY ACROSS NRN
INDIANA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT IN DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CAA.
GUSTY WAA/MIXING IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO
RISE TO NEAR 70F AREA-WIDE...WITH DWPTS MIXING STEADILY INTO THE
UPPER 40S AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON. IN THE PAST FEW HOURS...SOME
HIGH BASED CUMULUS HAVE DEVELOPED IN A FORCED ASCENT REGION
IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM OF THE SHORTWAVE OVER NERN IND/NWRN
OH...WITH SPRINKLES/-SHRA NOW DEVELOPING.
EXPECT SOME HIGHER-BASED SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP IN ACCORDANCE WITH RECENT HRRR...17.12Z HIRES
ARW/NMM/NAM/GEM. THESE SHOULD DEVELOP/STREAK DOWNSTREAM ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-70 THROUGH THIS EVENING SO INTRODUCED VERY SMALL
CHANCES OF A MEASURABLE SHOWER ESP FOR AREAS FROM CELINA TO KENTON
OVER TO DELAWARE. COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY CROSS THE CWA THIS
EVENING AND STRONG CAA TO ENSUE WITH BRISK/GUSTY NW WINDS. BRING
CLOUD COVER UP QUICKLY IN THE NWLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...WITH CONTINUED MENTION OF A SPRINKLE/-SHRA INTO THE
OVERNIGHT IN OUR FAR NORTH WHICH IS JUXTAPOSED WITH THE DEEPEST
/RELATIVELY SPEAKING/ MOISTURE AND MODEST FORCED ASCENT FROM THE
SHORTWAVE CROSSING MICH/LAKE HURON. LATER IN THE NIGHT /AFTER 3 AM
OR SO/...THE STRONG COLD ADVECTION SHOULD BEGIN WORKING THE WARM
SRN LAKE MICHIGAN LAKE WATERS AND ALL CONVECTION-ALLOWING GUIDANCE
INDICATES STREAMERS OF -SHRA DEVELOPING OFF LAKE MICHIGAN PUSHING
INTO ECNTL IND TOWARD THE CWA VERY LATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ON 19.12Z...THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE MENTIONED ABOVE WILL BE PUSHING
INTO UPSTATE NY...WHILE A SECOND STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS
QUICKLY SOUTHEAST INTO WIS/ILL. THINK THERE IS A LULL IN THE
SYNOPTIC FORCING FROM 12Z-18Z...SO RAIN CHANCES IN THE MORNING
QUITE SMALL. LOW LEVEL STRATUS/STRATOCUMULUS WILL BE RATHER
WIDESPREAD...BUT THERE MAY BE SOME HOLES HERE AND THERE AMIDST THE
STRONG CAA. LAKE MICHIGAN-INDUCED BANDS OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TO POSE A THREAT INTO THE TRI-STATE AREA ON A LIMITED/NARROW
BASIS...AS MOST 17.12Z CAM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST SHRA
BANDS WILL BE MAINTAINED OFF LAKE MICHIGAN INTO SERN IND/SWRN
OH/NRN KY.
THE SECOND POTENT S/W BRINGS A BRIEF BUT DEEP MOISTURE FIELD AND
COMPACT VERTICAL MOTION SIGNAL. SEEMS QPF IN THE DETERMINISTIC
RUNS MAY BE UNDERDONE GIVEN A PURELY MOISTURE/LIFT PERSPECTIVE
FROM 17.12Z NAM/GFS...BUT THERE IS ACKNOWLEDGMENT THAT ANTECEDENT
MOISTURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES IS HARDLY IMPRESSIVE. THUS...EXPECT
BAND/S/ OF SHOWERS TO SPREAD NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVE. INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES A BIT BUT THINK THEY COULD GO EVEN A LITTLE HIGHER IF
FORCING/MOISTURE SIGNAL STILL LOOKS DECENT. A CHILLY...GREY DAY
FOR THE MOST PART...WITH HIGHS ONLY MOVING UP A FEW DEGREES OFF
THE MORNING LOWS...MOSTLY LOW-MID 50S GIVEN 850MB TEMPS PLUNGING
TO 0C BY MIDDAY OVER OHIO/INDIANA. A BRISK WIND WILL ADD TO THE CHILL.
THIS FORCING QUICKLY SLIDES EAST SATURDAY NIGHT WITH CLEARING
SKIES. THIS IS IMPORTANT AND STILL A LOW CONFIDENCE POINT...IF
SUBSIDENCE IS EFFICIENT AT ERODING LOW CLOUDS...MAY BE DEALING
WITH A WIDESPREAD FROST /AND POTENTIAL FREEZE/ IN OUR NORTH/WEST
COUNTIES LATER SAT NIGHT. A FEW HOURS EITHER WAY MAKE/BREAK THIS
FORECAST...AND THIS PUTS CNTL OH/SCIOTO VALLEY IN A REAL QUESTION
MARK AS THERE WON/T BE MUCH OF A WINDOW FOR FROST FORMATION IF LOW
CLOUDS ARE SLOW IN ERODING. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT OWING TO
DECOUPLING BOUNDARY LAYER. 17.12Z NAM HAS MORE WIND AND A HIGHER
POTENTIAL OF LOW CLOUDS HANGING IN THEN 17.12Z GFS...WHICH LOOKS
VERY FROSTY IN OUR NORTH/WEST. AT A MINIMUM THINK WE/LL PROBABLY
NEED FROST ADVISORIES FOR WCNTL OH/SERN IND/PORTIONS OF SWRN OH
SAT NIGHT...WITH POTENTIAL FREEZE HEADLINES IN FAR NORTH/WEST AND
MORE WIDESPREAD FROST HEADLINES IF CLEARING IS AHEAD OF SCHEDULE.
SUNDAY BRINGS A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AS S/W RIDGING MOVES IN.
BOUNDARY LAYER SLOW TO WARM AFTER THE CHILLY START AND ONLY LOW-
MID 50S ARE SUGGESTED GIVEN LIGHT WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND
BETTER WAA REMAINING ATOP THE BOUNDARY LAYER. WARM ADVECTION
BECOMES STRONGER SUNDAY NIGHT AS THETA-E ADVECTION INCREASES AHEAD
OF NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THERE STILL
MAY BE A FROST THREAT IN CNTL OH/SCIOTO VALLEY AS THEY WILL BE
LAST TO SEE INCREASING CLOUDS/SWLY WINDS. DID INTRODUCE A SMALL
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FAR WEST/NORTH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT GIVEN
SIGNALS IN ECMWF/GFS...THOUGH NAM/SREF ARE QUITE DRY IN THE
SUBCLOUD LAYER BELOW THE ADVANCING MID CLOUD.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN GFS/ECMWF IN THE OVERALL UPR PATTERN
AND THE ASSOC SFC FEATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED...ALTHOUGH SOME
CHANGES IN BOTH MODELS FROM YESTERDAY INCLUDE A DEEPER UPR LEVEL LOW
AND THEREFOR SLOWER TO DEPART THE REGION PRIOR TO THE DEEP RIDGING
DOMINATING THE CENTRAL/WESTERN CONUS IN THE LATTER PART OF THE
EXTENDED. HAVE LINGERED SHOWERS NOW THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY IN THE
EAST AS THE UPR LOW CONTINUES TO BECOME DEEPER WITH EACH MODEL RUN
AND WILL RESULT IN PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER IN THE EAST WELL INTO
WEDNESDAY. HAVE ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT LOWS UPWARD IN THE TUE NIGHT/WED
NIGHT TIMEFRAME ACCORDINGLY WITH THE DELAY IN POST FRONTAL CLEARING.
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR UPDATES IN TEMPS/PRECIP/CLOUDS IN THE EAST
IF THE LOW CONTINUES TO SLOW/DEEPEN.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CEILINGS OVER THE AREA ARE CURRENTLY COMFORTABLY IN THE VFR
RANGE...WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OBSERVED OVER NORTHWEST OHIO AND
NORTHERN INDIANA. AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES INTO THE
OVERNIGHT...LOW CLOUDS UPSTREAM WILL GRADUALLY MOVE INTO THE
REGION...AND MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL THE TAF SITES BY
EARLY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AT THE DAYTON
AND COLUMBUS TAF SITES...BUT IF ANY OCCURS...IT WILL HAVE LITTLE
IMPACT ON AVIATION CONDITIONS.
MVFR CEILINGS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY...THOUGH THEY SHOULD LIFT ABOVE 2000 FEET IN HEIGHT. RAIN
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND COULD
IMPACT ANY OF THE TAF SITES AFTER 18Z. IMPACTS ARE GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO BE MINOR. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR RAIN APPEARS TO BE
AT THE COLUMBUS TAF SITES.
WESTERLY WINDS WILL SLIGHTLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING...BUT SUSTAINED
WINDS OF ABOVE 10 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS. AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST ON
SATURDAY...THEY WILL AGAIN BE BREEZY...WITH GUSTS REACHING THE
20-25 KNOT RANGE.
.OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY EVENING. MVFR
CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BINAU
NEAR TERM...BINAU
SHORT TERM...BINAU
LONG TERM...JDR
AVIATION...HATZOS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
340 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT SHIFTING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT OVER
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OHIO. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL ALLOW COOL TEMPERATURES TO SPILL SOUTH AND COVER THE AREA
SATURDAY. A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL WEATHER SYSTEM WILL DIG SOUTHEAST
ACROSS OHIO AND KENTUCKY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BRINGING
A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS. IN ADDITION...THE COOL AIR FLOWING
OVER LAKE MICHIGAN MAY ALLOW A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
NORTHERN INDIANA AND AFFECT THE TRI STATE ON SATURDAY MORNING IN
ADVANCE OF THE STRONGER WAVE IN THE AFTERNOON. A DRY SUNDAY IS
EXPECTED WITH COOL TEMPERATURES LINGERING. LOOKING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...WITH A CHANCE OF
RAIN MOVING BACK INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES
INTO THE GREAT LAKES FROM CANADA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
17.18Z RAP ANALYSIS AND OBSERVATIONAL DATA /GOES WATER VAPOR DATA/
INDICATE A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING LAKE MICHIGAN AND
EASTERN WISCONSIN. AT THE SURFACE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...IS A
STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS WRN LOWER MICHIGAN...INDIANA...INTO
SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS. LOW CLOUDS ARE STREAKING QUICKLY ACROSS NRN
INDIANA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT IN DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CAA.
GUSTY WAA/MIXING IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO
RISE TO NEAR 70F AREA-WIDE...WITH DWPTS MIXING STEADILY INTO THE
UPPER 40S AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON. IN THE PAST FEW HOURS...SOME
HIGH BASED CUMULUS HAVE DEVELOPED IN A FORCED ASCENT REGION
IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM OF THE SHORTWAVE OVER NERN IND/NWRN
OH...WITH SPRINKLES/-SHRA NOW DEVELOPING.
EXPECT SOME HIGHER-BASED SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP IN ACCORDANCE WITH RECENT HRRR...17.12Z HIRES
ARW/NMM/NAM/GEM. THESE SHOULD DEVELOP/STREAK DOWNSTREAM ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-70 THROUGH THIS EVENING SO INTRODUCED VERY SMALL
CHANCES OF A MEASURABLE SHOWER ESP FOR AREAS FROM CELINA TO KENTON
OVER TO DELAWARE. COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY CROSS THE CWA THIS
EVENING AND STRONG CAA TO ENSUE WITH BRISK/GUSTY NW WINDS. BRING
CLOUD COVER UP QUICKLY IN THE NWLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...WITH CONTINUED MENTION OF A SPRINKLE/-SHRA INTO THE
OVERNIGHT IN OUR FAR NORTH WHICH IS JUXTAPOSED WITH THE DEEPEST
/RELATIVELY SPEAKING/ MOISTURE AND MODEST FORCED ASCENT FROM THE
SHORTWAVE CROSSING MICH/LAKE HURON. LATER IN THE NIGHT /AFTER 3 AM
OR SO/...THE STRONG COLD ADVECTION SHOULD BEGIN WORKING THE WARM
SRN LAKE MICHIGAN LAKE WATERS AND ALL CONVECTION-ALLOWING GUIDANCE
INDICATES STREAMERS OF -SHRA DEVELOPING OFF LAKE MICHIGAN PUSHING
INTO ECNTL IND TOWARD THE CWA VERY LATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ON 19.12Z...THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE MENTIONED ABOVE WILL BE PUSHING
INTO UPSTATE NY...WHILE A SECOND STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS
QUICKLY SOUTHEAST INTO WIS/ILL. THINK THERE IS A LULL IN THE
SYNOPTIC FORCING FROM 12Z-18Z...SO RAIN CHANCES IN THE MORNING
QUITE SMALL. LOW LEVEL STRATUS/STRATOCUMULUS WILL BE RATHER
WIDESPREAD...BUT THERE MAY BE SOME HOLES HERE AND THERE AMIDST THE
STRONG CAA. LAKE MICHIGAN-INDUCED BANDS OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TO POSE A THREAT INTO THE TRI-STATE AREA ON A LIMITED/NARROW
BASIS...AS MOST 17.12Z CAM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST SHRA
BANDS WILL BE MAINTAINED OFF LAKE MICHIGAN INTO SERN IND/SWRN
OH/NRN KY.
THE SECOND POTENT S/W BRINGS A BRIEF BUT DEEP MOISTURE FIELD AND
COMPACT VERTICAL MOTION SIGNAL. SEEMS QPF IN THE DETERMINISTIC
RUNS MAY BE UNDERDONE GIVEN A PURELY MOISTURE/LIFT PERSPECTIVE
FROM 17.12Z NAM/GFS...BUT THERE IS ACKNOWLEDGMENT THAT ANTECEDENT
MOISTURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES IS HARDLY IMPRESSIVE. THUS...EXPECT
BAND/S/ OF SHOWERS TO SPREAD NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVE. INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES A BIT BUT THINK THEY COULD GO EVEN A LITTLE HIGHER IF
FORCING/MOISTURE SIGNAL STILL LOOKS DECENT. A CHILLY...GREY DAY
FOR THE MOST PART...WITH HIGHS ONLY MOVING UP A FEW DEGREES OFF
THE MORNING LOWS...MOSTLY LOW-MID 50S GIVEN 850MB TEMPS PLUNGING
TO 0C BY MIDDAY OVER OHIO/INDIANA. A BRISK WIND WILL ADD TO THE CHILL.
THIS FORCING QUICKLY SLIDES EAST SATURDAY NIGHT WITH CLEARING
SKIES. THIS IS IMPORTANT AND STILL A LOW CONFIDENCE POINT...IF
SUBSIDENCE IS EFFICIENT AT ERODING LOW CLOUDS...MAY BE DEALING
WITH A WIDESPREAD FROST /AND POTENTIAL FREEZE/ IN OUR NORTH/WEST
COUNTIES LATER SAT NIGHT. A FEW HOURS EITHER WAY MAKE/BREAK THIS
FORECAST...AND THIS PUTS CNTL OH/SCIOTO VALLEY IN A REAL QUESTION
MARK AS THERE WON/T BE MUCH OF A WINDOW FOR FROST FORMATION IF LOW
CLOUDS ARE SLOW IN ERODING. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT OWING TO
DECOUPLING BOUNDARY LAYER. 17.12Z NAM HAS MORE WIND AND A HIGHER
POTENTIAL OF LOW CLOUDS HANGING IN THEN 17.12Z GFS...WHICH LOOKS
VERY FROSTY IN OUR NORTH/WEST. AT A MINIMUM THINK WE/LL PROBABLY
NEED FROST ADVISORIES FOR WCNTL OH/SERN IND/PORTIONS OF SWRN OH
SAT NIGHT...WITH POTENTIAL FREEZE HEADLINES IN FAR NORTH/WEST AND
MORE WIDESPREAD FROST HEADLINES IF CLEARING IS AHEAD OF SCHEDULE.
SUNDAY BRINGS A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AS S/W RIDGING MOVES IN.
BOUNDARY LAYER SLOW TO WARM AFTER THE CHILLY START AND ONLY LOW-
MID 50S ARE SUGGESTED GIVEN LIGHT WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND
BETTER WAA REMAINING ATOP THE BOUNDARY LAYER. WARM ADVECTION
BECOMES STRONGER SUNDAY NIGHT AS THETA-E ADVECTION INCREASES AHEAD
OF NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THERE STILL
MAY BE A FROST THREAT IN CNTL OH/SCIOTO VALLEY AS THEY WILL BE
LAST TO SEE INCREASING CLOUDS/SWLY WINDS. DID INTRODUCE A SMALL
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FAR WEST/NORTH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT GIVEN
SIGNALS IN ECMWF/GFS...THOUGH NAM/SREF ARE QUITE DRY IN THE
SUBCLOUD LAYER BELOW THE ADVANCING MID CLOUD.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN GFS/ECMWF IN THE OVERALL UPR PATTERN
AND THE ASSOC SFC FEATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED...ALTHOUGH SOME
CHANGES IN BOTH MODELS FROM YESTERDAY INCLUDE A DEEPER UPR LEVEL LOW
AND THEREFOR SLOWER TO DEPART THE REGION PRIOR TO THE DEEP RIDGING
DOMINATING THE CENTRAL/WESTERN CONUS IN THE LATTER PART OF THE
EXTENDED. HAVE LINGERED SHOWERS NOW THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY IN THE
EAST AS THE UPR LOW CONTINUES TO BECOME DEEPER WITH EACH MODEL RUN
AND WILL RESULT IN PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER IN THE EAST WELL INTO
WEDNESDAY. HAVE ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT LOWS UPWARD IN THE TUE NIGHT/WED
NIGHT TIMEFRAME ACCORDINGLY WITH THE DELAY IN POST FRONTAL CLEARING.
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR UPDATES IN TEMPS/PRECIP/CLOUDS IN THE EAST
IF THE LOW CONTINUES TO SLOW/DEEPEN.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED OUT LEAVING ONLY FEW TO SCATTERED CLOUDS
THIS AFTN IN WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT. COLD FRONT TO
SWEEP EAST THRU THE TAF SITES FROM WEST TO EAST DURG LATE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING HOURS. THIS FRONT WILL COME THRU DRY FOLLOWED
BY AN OVERCAST DECK OF CLOUDS IN THE MVFR CATEGORY.
EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO PERSIST ON SATURDAY WITH A SHOWER OR SPRINKLE
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AT KDAY/KILN/KCVG AND KLUK. COVERAGE AND
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE FCST.
SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 KTS THIS AFTN WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE AGAIN
SATURDAY.
.OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BINAU
NEAR TERM...BINAU
SHORT TERM...BINAU
LONG TERM...JDR
AVIATION...AR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1100 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOR TONIGHT THRU SUN NIGHT...CLOUD AND
TEMPERATURE TRENDS.
18Z DATA ANALYSIS HAD A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED FROM
WESTERN ONT TO KS. WV IMAGERY SHOWED A RATHER VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE
EXITING THE REGION AND DROPPING INTO THE OH VALLEY. SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND THIS WAVE AND ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW WITH THE SFC-850MB RIDGE
AXIS BUILD EAST WERE CLEARING OUT THE STRATO-CU CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF
WI/EASTERN MN/NORTHEAST IA. WEST OF THE LOWER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS LOW
CLOUDS SLOWER TO MIX/ERODE...APPEARING MORE TRAPPED UNDER A STRONGER
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. WITH A RATHER CHILLY 925MB AIRMASS OVER THE
REGION...TEMPS SLOW TO WARM TODAY EVEN WITH THE SUNSHINE.
NO PROBLEMS NOTED WITH 18.12Z MODEL INITIALIZATIONS. SOLUTIONS VERY
SIMILAR FOR TONIGHT THRU SUN NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS OVER
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...THEN AS HGTS FALL WITH APPROACH/
PASSAGE OF THE NEXT STRONGER SHORTWAVE TOPPING THE WESTERN NOAM
LONGWAVE RIDGE AND DROPPING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SOLUTIONS
FAVOR A COMPROMISE OF THE EARLIER RUNS WITH ECMWF OFFERING THE
BETTER RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY. SHORT-TERM FCST CONFIDENCE IS GOOD
THIS CYCLE.
MODELS STRUGGLING A BIT AS THEY USUALLY DO WITH THE LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE/CLOUDS TRAPPED IN/UNDER INVERSIONS THIS TIME OF YEAR. GFS/
ECMWF LOOKING BETTER WITH THE POST-SHORTWAVE SUBSIDENCE/CLEARING
WORKING SOUTH ACROSS WI/EASTERN MN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE LOWER
CLOUDS MORE PERSISTENT OVER WESTERN MN/IA. AS THE 925MB FLOW BECOMES
MORE SOUTHWEST/WEST AHEAD OF THE LOW/TROUGH MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL
CAN TO THE DAKOTAS...THIS RESIDUAL 925MB MOISTURE/ANY CLOUDS OVER
WESTERN MN/IA WOULD BE ADVECTED INTO/ACROSS THE FCST AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND TIME-HGT X-SECTIONS ALSO SHOWING
PLENTIFUL 400-200MB MOISTURE AND WEAK UPWARD MOTION TO SPREAD ACROSS
THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING MID LEVEL TROUGH.
SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT STARTS TO TIGHTEN OVER THE AREA LATER TONIGHT
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SFC-850MB TROUGH...ALONG WITH MDT/STRONG
925-850MB WARM ADVECTION. RAISED LOWS A BIT TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
WEST OF THE MS RIVER.
STRONGEST OF THE LOWER LEVEL WARM ADVECTION/THERMO-DYNAMIC FORCING
MOVES ACROSS THE FCST AREA SUN MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS/X-SECTIONS
SHOWS THIS LIFT GOING INTO TRYING TO SATURATE THE 850-500MB PORTION
OF THE COLUMN. BETTER SATURATION OF THIS PORTION OF THE COLUMN
OCCURS OVER THE NORTHEAST END OF THE FCST AREA SUN AFTER...WHERE IT
IS THE COOLEST. EVEN THERE SATURATION APPEARS MARGINAL AT BEST FOR
-SHRA...AND REMOVED THE SMALL CHANCES ACROSS CLARK/TAYLOR COUNTIES
WHICH BLENDS WELL WITH NEIGHBORING GRIDS. STRONG DRYING AT/ABOVE
700MB SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA SUN NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH...WITH SOME POST TROUGH CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW AND 925-850MB
MOISTURE TO CLIP THE NORTHEAST END OF THE FCST AREA. MDT LOW LEVEL
COLD ADVECTION TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA LATER SUN NIGHT...ALONG
WITH A MODEST SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT FOR SOME WINDS/BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXING AND WARMER LOWS. GENERALLY FAVORED WARMER OF GUIDANCE LOWS
TONIGHT THEN A BLEND OF HIGHS/LOWS SUN/SUN NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOR MON THRU TUE NIGHT...TEMPERATURES AND
CLOUDS.
18.12Z MODELS IN GOOD AND IMPROVING AGREEMENT FOR RIDGING TO BUILD
EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST DURING
THE MON THRU TUE NIGHT PERIOD. TREND FAVORS A COMPROMISE OF THE
EARLIER RUNS. FCST CONFIDENCE IN THIS PERIOD IS GOOD THIS CYCLE.
MON THRU TUE NIGHT CONTINUES TO SHAPE UP AS A DRY/QUIET PERIOD AS
THE RISING HGTS/RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND SFC
HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS NEAR/OVER THE REGION. SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/
CLOUDS BEHIND THE LOW DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
LINGER OVER THE NORTHEAST END OF THE FCST AREA MON. BIT OF A BACK-
DOOR COLD FRONT AND NORTHEAST FLOW AROUND THE SFC-850MB RIDGING
NORTH OF LK SUPERIOR TRIES TO PUSH SOME LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS
WEST/SOUTH INTO THE FCST AREA LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT. PER THE
MODEL ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS...LEFT MON NIGHT THRU TUE NIGHT MOSTLY
CLEAR FOR NOW. AREA UNDER WEAK LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION MON THRU TUE
NIGHT IN THE EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW AROUND THE RIDGING NORTH OF LK
SUPERIOR. 925MB TEMPS IN THE 5C TO 12C RANGE MON AFTERNOON AND 4C TO
7C RANGE TUE AFTERNOON. CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
UNDER THE DRIER CAN HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD ALLOW FOR LARGER DIURNAL
TEMP SWINGS EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS MON/TUE LOOKING TO BE NEAR/ABOVE
NORMAL WHILE LOWS MON/TUE NIGHTS APPEAR NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL. BLEND
OF THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HIGHS/LOWS FOR MON THRU TUE NIGHT LOOK TO
HAVE THIS WELL TRENDED.
FOR WED THROUGH SAT.../DAYS 4 TO 7/...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SMALL -SHRA CHANCE CENTERED ON
THU...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD.
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS OF 18.00Z/18.12Z SHOW IMPROVING AGREEMENT
FOR RIDGING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WED WITH A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH TO BE LIFTING INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS. PLENTY OF
DETAIL DIFFERENCES WITH THIS TROUGH BY THU AS IT MOVES INTO/ACROSS
THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY BUT TREND REMAINS WEAKENING OF THIS FEATURE
AS IT MOVES THRU THE RIDGE AXIS. STRONG CONSENSUS FOR RISING HGTS/
RIDGING OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS FRI. 18.12Z GFS/ECMWF IN BETTER
AGREEMENT ON SAT VS. 18.00Z RUNS...ON AMOUNT OF RIDGING ALOFT OVER
THE REGION. 18.00Z ECMWF WAS A STRONGER/FASTER OUTLIER WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO DROP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. ITS LATEST RUN HAS
TRENDED MORE TOWARD THE GFS...HOLDING MORE RIDGING ALOFT/HIGHER HGTS
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST ON DAY 7. FAVORED A MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS
WITH AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN THE DAY 4-7 PERIOD.
MODIFYING CAN HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS OVER THE AREA WED. AREA ON THE
WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH FOR SOME INCREASE OF SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOW
LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE PLAINS LOW/SHORTWAVE. SOME LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA HOWEVER 925MB TEMPS ONLY IN THE
+7C TO +10C RANGE BY 00Z THU...FOR HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID-UPPER
50S. WEAKENING MID LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES INTO/ACROSS THE REGION LATE
WED NIGHT THRU THU EVENING. NOT MUCH FOR A SFC-850MB REFLECTION OF
THIS TROUGH. DISJOINTED LOWER LEVEL THERMO-DYNAMIC FORCING SIGNAL A
BEST BUT PW VALUES PROGGED INTO THE 0.75 TO 1 INCH RANGE WITH THE
TROUGH. SMALL -SHRA CHANCE FOR MUCH OF THE FCST AREA WED NIGHT/THU
FINE FOR NOW UNTIL THE DETAILS SORT THEMSELVES OUT. WITH REBUILDING
HGTS/RIDGING FRI...LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION QUICKLY SPREADS ACROSS
THE AREA FROM THE WEST. 925MB TEMPS IN THE 10C TO 15C RANGE FOR FRI
AFTERNOON AND SAT. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH WESTERLY GRADIENT FLOW
THERE IS FOR MIXING...CONSENSUS HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 60S FRI AND
UPPER 50S-LOW 60S SAT MAY BE 5F TO 10F TOO COOL. STAYED WITH THE
MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS HIGHS/LOWS IN DAY 4-7 GOOD FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014
LIGHT SFC/NEAR SFC WIND FIELD WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD SUGGESTS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR RIVER VALLEY FOG. T/TD SPREAD WAS 6 F AT
03Z...GOOD INDICATOR FOR DENSE FOG. HOWEVER...THERE ARE A COUPLE
DRAWBACKS. FIRST IS THE HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING FOR THE WINDS RIGHT ABOVE THE NOCTURNAL
INVERSION TO INCREASE. RAP BUFKIT SOUNDING INCREASING TO 14KTS AT
200 FT BY 07Z. THE SECOND IS SCT-BKN HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING IN
FROM THE WEST...AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THINK SOME
THIN BR/STRATUS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE RIVER...BUT MAY NOT SPREAD
OUTSIDE OF ITS BANKS. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP KLSE FOG FREE FOR
NOW...BUT IT WILL NEED MONITORING.
HIGH/MID LEVEL CIGS FOR A PORTION OF THE DAY SUNDAY...WITH
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS BY MID MORNING. EXPECT A FEW HIGHER
GUSTS...WITH SUSTAINED AROUND 15KTS OR SO. WINDS WILL BECOME
WESTERLY SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE/S SURFACE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. NOT EXPECTING ANY PCPN.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION.....RIECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1120 AM MDT FRI OCT 17 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM MDT FRI OCT 17 2014
THE VERY NICE FALL WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A WEAK FRONT HAS BACKED ACROSS THE PLAINS AND TEMPS ARE
CHILLY WITH MANY LOCATIONS IN THE LOW-TO-MID 30S. STRATUS IS
CURRENTLY ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
THE HRRR PUSHES THE LOW CLOUDS INTO THE FAR EASTERN ZONES BY
SUNRISE...HOWEVER BELIEVE IT MAY BE A BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE. A DROP
IN TEMPS OF 5-10 DEGREES WILL BE SEE TODAY ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S AS OPPOSED TO THE 70S FROM THE PAST FEW
DAYS. HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE ON SAT WITH WARM ADVECTION. TEMPS WILL
BE BACK UP INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE
BREEZY DURING THE AFTN OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AS PRESSURE
FALLS OCCUR OVER EASTERN MT DURING THE DAY. WEAK SHORTWAVE PUSHES
FROM MT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SAT NIGHT. OTHER THAN DRAGGING
A WEAK COOL FRONT OVER THE PANHANDLE ON SUN MORNING...THIS SYSTEM
WILL HAVE VERY LITTLE EFFECT ON THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES
OVERHEAD ON SUN FOR A CONTINUATION OF THE TRANQUIL WEATHER
CONDITIONS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM MDT FRI OCT 17 2014
DRY AND MILD TO START OFF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES MONDAY WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT INTO THE
PLAINS WITH A TROUGH TO PUSH INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY MID WEEK.
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS INTO THE 70S
ACROSS MOST OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 60S INTO THE WEST. TUESDAY
COULD BE VERY WARM FOR THE LATER PORTIONS OF OCTOBER. MAY SEE RECORD
HIGHS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA ASSUMING HIGH CLOUDS ARE NOT TOO
EXTENSIVE AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE WEDNESDAY BASED ON CURRENT MODEL TIMING.
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE IN THE FORM OF LIQUID...AND THAT MAY
ALSO HOLD TRUE FOR THE MOUNTAINS AS THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH IN THE
WAY OF COLD AIR FROM THIS PACIFIC SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1120 AM MDT FRI OCT 17 2014
VFR OVER ALL AERODROMES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT SFC WINDS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 249 AM MDT FRI OCT 17 2014
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
5-10 DEGREES COOLER TODAY FOR AREAS TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE. MINIMUM AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE IN THE 20-30
PERCENT RANGE TO THE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. WITH WEAK SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS...WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 15 MPH
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...SML
AVIATION...RE
FIRE WEATHER...FINCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
556 AM MDT FRI OCT 17 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM MDT FRI OCT 17 2014
THE VERY NICE FALL WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A WEAK FRONT HAS BACKED ACROSS THE PLAINS AND TEMPS ARE
CHILLY WITH MANY LOCATIONS IN THE LOW-TO-MID 30S. STRATUS IS
CURRENTLY ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
THE HRRR PUSHES THE LOW CLOUDS INTO THE FAR EASTERN ZONES BY
SUNRISE...HOWEVER BELIEVE IT MAY BE A BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE. A DROP
IN TEMPS OF 5-10 DEGREES WILL BE SEE TODAY ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S AS OPPOSED TO THE 70S FROM THE PAST FEW
DAYS. HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE ON SAT WITH WARM ADVECTION. TEMPS WILL
BE BACK UP INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE
BREEZY DURING THE AFTN OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AS PRESSURE
FALLS OCCUR OVER EASTERN MT DURING THE DAY. WEAK SHORTWAVE PUSHES
FROM MT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SAT NIGHT. OTHER THAN DRAGGING
A WEAK COOL FRONT OVER THE PANHANDLE ON SUN MORNING...THIS SYSTEM
WILL HAVE VERY LITTLE EFFECT ON THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES
OVERHEAD ON SUN FOR A CONTINUATION OF THE TRANQUIL WEATHER
CONDITIONS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM MDT FRI OCT 17 2014
DRY AND MILD TO START OFF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES MONDAY WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT INTO THE
PLAINS WITH A TROUGH TO PUSH INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY MID WEEK.
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS INTO THE 70S
ACROSS MOST OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 60S INTO THE WEST. TUESDAY
COULD BE VERY WARM FOR THE LATER PORTIONS OF OCTOBER. MAY SEE RECORD
HIGHS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA ASSUMING HIGH CLOUDS ARE NOT TOO
EXTENSIVE AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE WEDNESDAY BASED ON CURRENT MODEL TIMING.
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE IN THE FORM OF LIQUID...AND THAT MAY
ALSO HOLD TRUE FOR THE MOUNTAINS AS THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH IN THE
WAY OF COLD AIR FROM THIS PACIFIC SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 534 AM MDT FRI OCT 17 2014
A POCKET OF LOW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP BRIEFLY THIS MORNING OVER THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE BUT AS OF 12Z A MAJORITY OF THE CLOUD COVER HAS
BEEN OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA. SO OTHER THAN
SOME MORNING LOW CLOUDS...VFR WILL BE FOUND THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 249 AM MDT FRI OCT 17 2014
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
5-10 DEGREES COOLER TODAY FOR AREAS TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE. MINIMUM AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE IN THE 20-30
PERCENT RANGE TO THE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. WITH WEAK SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS...WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 15 MPH
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...SML
AVIATION...SML
FIRE WEATHER...FINCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
349 AM MDT FRI OCT 17 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM MDT FRI OCT 17 2014
THE VERY NICE FALL WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A WEAK FRONT HAS BACKED ACROSS THE PLAINS AND TEMPS ARE
CHILLY WITH MANY LOCATIONS IN THE LOW-TO-MID 30S. STRATUS IS
CURRENTLY ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
THE HRRR PUSHES THE LOW CLOUDS INTO THE FAR EASTERN ZONES BY
SUNRISE...HOWEVER BELIEVE IT MAY BE A BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE. A DROP
IN TEMPS OF 5-10 DEGREES WILL BE SEE TODAY ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S AS OPPOSED TO THE 70S FROM THE PAST FEW
DAYS. HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE ON SAT WITH WARM ADVECTION. TEMPS WILL
BE BACK UP INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE
BREEZY DURING THE AFTN OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AS PRESSURE
FALLS OCCUR OVER EASTERN MT DURING THE DAY. WEAK SHORTWAVE PUSHES
FROM MT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SAT NIGHT. OTHER THAN DRAGGING
A WEAK COOL FRONT OVER THE PANHANDLE ON SUN MORNING...THIS SYSTEM
WILL HAVE VERY LITTLE EFFECT ON THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES
OVERHEAD ON SUN FOR A CONTINUATION OF THE TRANQUIL WEATHER
CONDITIONS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM MDT FRI OCT 17 2014
DRY AND MILD TO START OFF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES MONDAY WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT INTO THE
PLAINS WITH A TROUGH TO PUSH INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY MID WEEK.
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS INTO THE 70S
ACROSS MOST OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 60S INTO THE WEST. TUESDAY
COULD BE VERY WARM FOR THE LATER PORTIONS OF OCTOBER. MAY SEE RECORD
HIGHS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA ASSUMING HIGH CLOUDS ARE NOT TOO
EXTENSIVE AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE WEDNESDAY BASED ON CURRENT MODEL TIMING.
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE IN THE FORM OF LIQUID...AND THAT MAY
ALSO HOLD TRUE FOR THE MOUNTAINS AS THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH IN THE
WAY OF COLD AIR FROM THIS PACIFIC SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 249 AM MDT FRI OCT 17 2014
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS INTO THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE. CURRENTLY WIDESPREAD IFR TO MVFR DUE TO STRATUS OVER
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THE STRATUS WILL SPILL SOUTH INTO WESTERN
NEBRASKA BY LATE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 249 AM MDT FRI OCT 17 2014
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
5-10 DEGREES COOLER TODAY FOR AREAS TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE. MINIMUM AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE IN THE 20-30
PERCENT RANGE TO THE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. WITH WEAK SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS...WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 15 MPH
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...SML
AVIATION...SML
FIRE WEATHER...FINCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
254 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014
MIDLEVEL CLOUDS PERSIST THIS MORNING WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT SHOWING
UP ON RADAR NEAR THE GRAND AND BATTLEMENT MESAS. THE GREATER
RESOLUTION HRRR MODEL IS PICKING UP ON THIS REMARKABLY WELL THOUGH
IT DOES SHOW THE ENHANCEMENT ENDING IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. AS
FAR AS THE BIG PICTURE IS CONCERNED...CLOSED LOW OVER SRN CALIF
AND WRN AZ IS PROGGED TO FILL TODAY AS IT MOVES EAST WHILE
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL WINDS BRING SOME MOISTURE UP FROM THE
SOUTH. MODELS INDICATING ANOTHER DAY OF SHOWERS FOR MAINLY HIGHER
ELEVATIONS SOUTH OF I-70. WHILE NO STORMS FORMED YESTERDAY...CHANCES
LOOK BETTER TODAY AS A BIT MORE INSTABILITY IS PRESENT AND LESS
CLOUDS WILL ALLOW MORE DAYTIME HEATING. WHILE MOST CONVECTION WILL
DIE DOWN SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...A FEW SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE AFTER
THAT. THE REST OF THE CWA WILL SEE MORE SUN THAN YESTERDAY AS WARM
TEMPS CONTINUE.
TONIGHT-SUNDAY...IN SPITE OF THE BLOCKING NATURE OF THE UPPER
PATTERN...BOTH THE NW MEXICAN LOW AND THE CO HIGH REMAIN
PROGRESSIVE. THE MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE SOUTH FLOW WILL
PRODUCE A FEW NOCTURNAL SHOWERS TONIGHT OVER THE SOUTHERN MTNS.
THE BREAK DOWN OF THE RIDGE ON MONDAY INCREASES MARGINAL
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MTNS FOR A MENTION OF ISOLATED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE NORTH
OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LOW WEAKENS OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO AS THE PACIFIC TROUGH COMES ONSHORE MONDAY NIGHT THEN LIFTS
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY TUESDAY
NIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE SPREADS INTO THE NORTHERN ZONES WITH 700
SPECIFIC HUMIDITY UNIFORMALY NEAR 6 G/KG. SCATTERED SHOWERS
MONDAY NIGHT INCREASE ON TUESDAY WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
FAVORING THE SOUTH. THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A 60KT JET WORKS
ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.
SNOW LEVELS LOWER TO AROUND 9KFT TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME SNOW
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED IN THE SAN JUAN AND WEST ELK/RAGGEDS MTN
RANGES.
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SFC
COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN NEAR 9K
FEET WITH A FEW MORE INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL DROP SEVERAL DEGREES AS COLD AIR
FILTERS IN WITH BIGGEST CHANGES FELT UP NORTH. TEMPERATURE
CONTRAST NOT EXPECTED TO BE TOO GREAT THE FURTHER SOUTH ONE GOES.
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD BRINGS HIGH PRESSURE. THE
AXIS OF THIS RIDGE WILL GET FORCED ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDWEST AS
AN ENERGETIC JET STREAM TAKES AIM AT THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WE
WILL REMAIN DRY AS THE NWRN STATES SEE A PROLONGED WED PERIOD. SOME
HIGH CLOUDS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS TEMPERATURES START WARMING UP
UNDER SWLY FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 251 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014
MIDLEVEL CIGS CONTINUE TO BE REPORTED THIS MORNING WITH MOST CIGS
AROUND 10K THOUGH A FEW SITES REPORTING CIGS NEAR 5K FEET AT
TIMES. MORE SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY
GENERALLY OVER HIGHER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70.
CONVECTION WILL BEING AROUND 18Z REACHING A MAXIMUM BETWEEN 21Z
AND 00Z. EVEN SO...FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR FOR THE
MOST PART. SOME MTN OBSCURATIONS...ESPECIALLY THE SAN
JUANS...EXPECTED TODAY.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TGR/JOE
LONG TERM...TGR/JOE
AVIATION...TGR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
320 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014
.DISCUSSION...
320 AM...FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR SPRINKLES TONIGHT AND THEN LAKE
EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
LOWER CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED ALL BUT FAR EASTERN CWA...AND WILL BE
CLEARING THERE BEFORE SUNRISE. WITH CALM WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA...TEMPS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 30S MOST AREAS AND THE FROST ADVISORY AND ITS TIMING
IS ON TRACK. SOME PATCHY/SHALLOW GROUND FOG HAS DEVELOPED AND NOT
EXPECTING THIS TO BECOME WIDESPREAD.
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM MANITOBA TODAY REACHING THE
NORTHERN LAKES TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SOME BETWEEN
THIS LOW AND THE DEPARTING HIGH WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AT
TIMES...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA. SHOULD BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE TO START BUT INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING. A TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM THIS LOW WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH LIMITED FORCING/MOISTURE. BETTER
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WILL LIKELY REMAIN BOTH NORTH AND
SOUTH OF THE CWA AND REMOVED MENTIONABLE POPS.
AS COLDER AIR SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY NIGHT...LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AND AFFECT MAINLY NORTHWEST INDIANA
BUT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES TUESDAY...
ITS POSSIBLE WINDS MAY TURN ENOUGH TO THE NORTHEAST FOR A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS TO REACH EASTERN COOK COUNTY TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE THE
PRECIP DISSIPATES AS THE HIGH BUILDS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS HIGH WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND QUIET WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS THURSDAY AND
POSSIBLY REACHING THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY BUT MODELS
WEAKEN THIS CONSIDERABLY SHOWING NO PRECIP REACHING THE CWA. CMS
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* NONE
IZZI
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
ALLOWING FOR INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS LATER THIS MORNING AND
ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON. BY MID AFTERNOON WINDS WILL PROBABLY
BEGIN GUSTING INTO THE 17-21KT RANGE WITH GUSTS POTENTIALLY
LINGERING INTO THE EVENING AS LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND
CLOUDINESS INCREASES SLOWING DECOUPLING. WINDS AROUND 2000FT AGL
ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 40KT FOR A TIME THIS
EVENING...BUT ANTICIPATE ENOUGH MIXING AND WINDS AT THE SFC TO
MITIGATE ANY SIGNIFICANT LLWS THREAT. OTHERWISE LOOK FOR GENERALLY
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE WITH THE ONLY EXCEPTION BEING
SOME PATCHY GROUND THIS MORNING AT DPA AND POTENTIALLY RFD WHICH
WILL DISSIPATE RAPIDLY AFTER SUNRISE.
IZZI
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL FORECAST ELEMENTS.
IZZI
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
MONDAY...CHANCE SHRA. SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOMING NORTH.
TUESDAY...DRY/VFR. NORTHEAST WINDS.
WEDNESDAY...DRY/VFR. EAST WINDS.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DRY/VFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS.
MDB
&&
.MARINE...
209 AM CDT
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION TONIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RAMP UP TODAY IN
ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM WITH A PERIOD OF NEAR GALE FORCE SOUTHWEST
WINDS EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON
TRANSLATING SOUTH TO SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN THIS EVENING. THE
DURATION OF GALE FORCE GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING LOOKS
TO BE SHORT IN MOST LOCATIONS WITH A DURATION PROBABLY ONLY A
COUPLE-FEW HOURS. GIVEN THE SHORT DURATION AND MARGINAL SET-UP HAVE
OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON GALE HEADLINES AND JUST INCLUDE A FEW GUSTS TO
GALES IN THE GLF/GRIDS. A PERIOD OF FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS IS
EXPECTED LATE MONDAY THOUGH TUESDAY AS LOW MOVES MORE SLOWLY
EASTWARD AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. BY MIDWEEK
WINDS/WAVES SHOULD SUBSIDE ON THE LAKE WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS
EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
IZZI
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...FROST ADVISORY...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-
ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022-
ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL 8 AM SUNDAY.
IN...FROST ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011 UNTIL 8 AM SUNDAY.
FROST ADVISORY...INZ019 UNTIL 8 AM SUNDAY.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-
LMZ745...7 PM SUNDAY TO 3 AM MONDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY.
&&
$$
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[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
306 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014
Pesky low clouds continue to linger across the southern 2/3 or so of
the forecast area early this morning. This fact is holding surface
temperatures and dew points up considerably, and mitigating the
frost threat. However, temperatures have fallen to frosty level
across northern portion of the forecast area where skies have
cleared. HRRR and RAP models both suggest clouds should linger for
at least a few more hours across much of the southern CWA, something
that is hard to argue with looking at recent satellite trends. So,
plan to drop Frost Advisory from the southern half of the forecast
area.
Otherwise, quiet weather is on tap for the forecast area today, with
weak short wave ridging drifting overhead, and the associated
surface ridge pushing off to the east. Low level return flow on the
back side of the surface ridge will help push temperatures back into
the 60s today across much of the forecast area. However, the tricky
cloud cover forecast would likely impact how warm we ultimately get.
While most of the synoptic models suggest a mostly sunny day can be
expected, the high resolution HRRR & RAP, suggest at least the first
half of the day may trend closer to mostly cloudy. The high res
models have a better handle on what is occurring at the moment, so
I`m reluctant to disregard their solutions.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014
A fast moving wave currently across North Dakota is expected to drop
into the Great Lakes on Monday. The main low will stay well to our
northeast, with the trailing cold front sweeping through the
forecast area through early Monday afternoon. The threat of showers
with this feature is mainly across the southeast half of the
forecast area late evening through the overnight hours, with the GFS
and ECMWF both in decent agreement, while the NAM persists with a
dry forecast. Soundings do not show much moisture, so any showers
that occur will be fairly light. Have lingered some 30% PoP`s in the
far southeast CWA into early Monday morning, although have limited
this to areas south of I-70.
Otherwise, largely quiet week on tap for the area, as skinny ridge
builds toward the Mississippi Valley mid week with development of a
large cutoff low over the eastern states. As the eastern low slowly
drifts east late week, a deep shortwave across the Plains will
eventually split with a piece of energy forming a secondary cutoff
low over the lower Mississippi Valley. As this occurs, the threat of
rain east of the river will evaporate quickly Thursday evening with
the moisture being drawn toward this southern low.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
ISSUED AT 1158 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014
Clouds have finally cleared over PIA and BMI but remain nearby. A
push of dry air across our N to NE counties should help to take
the clearing to CMI shortly after 07z and DEC by 08z. SPI appears
to have enough upstream clouds to keep them cloudy to around 08z.
Clouds should clear out from all terminal sites, with borderline
MVFR conditions CMI and DEC.
Fog may be the next concern, based spotty upstream reports of vis
reduction, including Lacons variable vis of 1V5sm. Have included a
tempo from 10-12z for MVFR 4SM BR at all TAF sites. As the high
begins to shift off to the east late tonight, a light SW return
flow will develop by sunrise. Clear skies and southwest winds at
10kt or less will prevail through the day on Sunday. Some mid
clouds will push in from the west Sunday evening.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY until 8 AM CDT this morning FOR ILZ027>031-
036>038-040>048.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Bak
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Shimon
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1214 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014
.DISCUSSION...
300 PM CDT
FORECAST CONCERNS LIE AROUND FROSTY CONDITIONS FOR TONIGHT...ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...AND POSSIBLY
SOME LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS INTO EARLY TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL
WARMUP.
THE SHARP UPPER TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS MORNINGS LIGHT RAIN IS
CONTINUING ITS NOSE-DIVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. THERE
IS STILL PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER OVER THE LAKE. WE ARE STARTING TO SEE
SOME CLOUD BREAKS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN AND A
CORRESPONDING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION/RAPID HEIGHT RISES CONTINUE TO
SQUASH THE DEEPER MOISTURE. THE UPPER RIDGE IN THE PLAINS WILL
DAMPEN AS IT SPREADS EAST TONIGHT...BUT WITH SPRAWLING SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TRANSITING THE REGION TONIGHT...EXPECT BETTER CLEARING GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TO ALLOW FOR CLEARING TO CONTINUE FOR
TEMPERATURES TO DROP RATHER QUICKLY. OUR NEXT SYSTEM IS ALREADY
SPREADING EAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
THIS AFTERNOON...AND WE WILL LIKELY SEE SOME OF THE HIGH CLOUDINESS
ASSOCIATED WITH IT SPREADING INTO OUR AREA LATER TONIGHT WHICH
SHOULDN`T DO TOO MUCH TO SLOW THE COOLING TONIGHT. DO NOT SEE ANY
GUIDANCE TO SUGGEST A WIDESPREAD FREEZE IN SPITE OF A FEW OUTLYING
LOCATIONS POSSIBLY TAGGING THE FREEZING MARK THIS EVENING AS
COLDER DEWPOINTS SPREAD SOUTH...SO WILL MAKE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
TEMPS TONIGHT OR THE FROST ADVISORY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
CLOUDS WILL HANG ON IN NW INDIANA THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT BEFORE
BEGINNING TO CLEAR WHICH WILL SLOW THE COOL DOWN AND LIMIT FROST
POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE LAKE. BUT WE ARE SEEING
PRETTY GOOD CLEARING OF THE LAKE CLOUDS FARTHER UPSTREAM...AND
GIVEN THE LOW STARTING POINT AND AT LEAST GAPS IN THE CLOUDS
EXPECTED THAT OUTLYING AREAS IN NW INDY ALSO WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE
TO SOME FROST...THOUGH WITH A BIT LOWER CONFIDENCE THEN IN
ILLINOIS. ADDITIONALLY...THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG IN RIVER
VALLEYS LATE TONIGHT AS WELL.
SUNDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL
BEGIN TO TAKE AIM AT THE REGION. IT WILL BE A COOL START TO THE DAY
AND EXPECT INCREASING CLOUD COVER AS THE DAY GOES ON WHICH WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S AT BEST. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...THE
SYSTEM WILL BE TAKING A SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TRACK TO TODAY`S THOUGH IT
IS NOT QUITE AS SHARP. BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT NEARS BRINGING A ANOTHER SHOT OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.
GUIDANCE IS MIXED AS TO THE DEGREE AT WHICH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
TURNS NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY...BUT THERE LOOKS TO BE SOME LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS LINGERING INTO EARLY TUESDAY...POSSIBLY BACK TO
THE ILLINOIS SIDE OF LAKE MICHIGAN.
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK IS STILL LOOKING FAIRLY NICE WITH MILD
AND DRY CONDITIONS THERE IS A PACIFIC SYSTEM THAT WILL ATTEMPT TO
PROGRESS THROUGH THE RIDGE BUT MODELS ARE SPLITTY WITH THIS ONE
GENERALLY JUST BRINGING SOME CLOUDS WITH IT AT THIS POINT.
KMD
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* NONE
IZZI
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
ALLOWING FOR INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS LATER THIS MORNING AND
ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON. BY MID AFTERNOON WINDS WILL PROBABLY
BEGIN GUSTING INTO THE 17-21KT RANGE WITH GUSTS POTENTIALLY
LINGERING INTO THE EVENING AS LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND
CLOUDINESS INCREASES SLOWING DECOUPLING. WINDS AROUND 2000FT AGL
ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 40KT FOR A TIME THIS
EVENING...BUT ANTICIPATE ENOUGH MIXING AND WINDS AT THE SFC TO
MITIGATE ANY SIGNIFICANT LLWS THREAT. OTHERWISE LOOK FOR GENERALLY
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE WITH THE ONLY EXCEPTION BEING
SOME PATCHY GROUND THIS MORNING AT DPA AND POTENTIALLY RFD WHICH
WILL DISSIPATE RAPIDLY AFTER SUNRISE.
IZZI
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL FORECAST ELEMENTS.
IZZI
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
MONDAY...CHANCE SHRA. SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOMING NORTH.
TUESDAY...DRY/VFR. NORTHEAST WINDS.
WEDNESDAY...DRY/VFR. EAST WINDS.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DRY/VFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS.
MDB
&&
.MARINE...
111 PM CDT
IN THE NEAR TERM...HAVE ALLOWED GALE WARNING FOR THE LAKE MICHIGAN
OPEN WATERS TO EXPIRE AT 1 PM CDT...AS ISALLOBARIC (PRESSURE CHANGE)
GRADIENT HAS WEAKENED AND OBSERVED GUSTS HAVE EASED INTO THE 25-30
KT RANGE OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON
AND THEN MORE QUICKLY THIS EVENING/TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE FROM
WESTERN ONTARIO TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS MOVES STEADILY EAST-SOUTHEAST
TO THE WESTERN LAKES AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS
WILL RESULT IN 30 KT NORTH WINDS DIMINISHING QUICKLY THIS EVENING...
AND BACKING TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST BY MORNING AS THE SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS PASSES. CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HEADLINES FOR THE IL
NEARSHORE WATERS WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 4 AM CDT...WITH THE
IN WATERS CONTINUING THROUGH 10 AM CDT SUNDAY MORNING AS WAVES
SLOWLY SUBSIDE AFTER THIS PERIOD OF STRONG NORTHERLY FETCH.
LIGHT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE SHORT
LIVED HOWEVER...AS THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE CURRENT WEATHER
PATTERN CONTINUES WITH ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPING OVER CANADA AND MOVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PICK UP INTO THE 20-25 KT RANGE PERHAPS WITH A
FEW GUSTS TO 30 KT AGAIN SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF THIS LOW AND TRAILING
COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
WINDS SHIFT NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH A PERIOD OF 25 KTS LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS ANOTHER HIGH SPREADS ACROSS ONTARIO AND
EVENTUALLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
RATZER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...FROST ADVISORY...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-
ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022-
ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL 8 AM SUNDAY.
IN...FROST ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011...4 AM SUNDAY TO 8
AM SUNDAY.
FROST ADVISORY...INZ019 UNTIL 8 AM SUNDAY.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 4 AM SUNDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 10 AM SUNDAY.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1159 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 910 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014
Clouds have been slow to clear out, but still show a steady
progress. Main concern is that any clouds that linger for a
significant amount of time after midnight could prevent those
areas from seeing any frost conditions. Our frost advisory
includes all of our counties. The latest HRRR high res model is
catching on to the slower clearing of clouds, and shows areas east
of I-57 and south of Champaign and Vermilion counties seeing
clouds persist as late as 11z/6am. For now will not cancel the
frost advisory for those areas, but will bring low temps up a
degree or two to account for less time under clear skies.
Main updates this evening were to the sky grids, and low temps in
the east. The remainder of the forecast looked on track. A
seasonable day is on tap for Sunday, under mostly sunny skies with
highs around 60, and southwest winds around 10 mph.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014
Short-wave trough currently over central Illinois will drop
southward into the Ohio River Valley by early this evening, allowing
skies to clear from northwest to southeast across the area. 1730z
visible satellite imagery is already showing clearing in the wake of
the wave across central/northern Wisconsin into northern Iowa.
Based on satellite timing tools and the latest run of the HRRR,
think skies will clear across the far NW KILX CWA around Galesburg
and Peoria late this afternoon, then across the remainder of the
area by early to mid-evening. With clear skies and light winds
expected, a cold and frosty night will be on tap. Low temperatures
will bottom out in the middle 30s across the board, allowing the
formation of frost. As a result, Frost Advisory is now in effect
for the entire CWA.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014
Only main concern this forecast package, beyond tonight, is the
chance of pcpn Sunday night through Monday. All models are
consistent with bringing a cold front down through the area
beginning late Sunday night and continuing through Monday morning.
This front will not have much moisture to work with, given the large
area of high pressure that will block any moisture from the gulf
from getting into the midwest. However, will still have a low
chance, around 30pct, pops in the forecast, beginning late Sun night
and continuing through Monday morning. Models seem a little faster
than yesterday, so believe pcpn could be out of the area by Monday
afternoon. However, will keep a slight chance pops in the grids in
the southeast...though it will not be seen in the wording.
Remainder of the forecast through the week and into the weekend will
be dry and pleasant. High pressure will build into the region on the
surface with 500mb ridging building in from the west. This will
effectively keep the storm track to the north through the remainder
of the forecast period, and possibly longer.
Temps will warm some tomorrow and Monday, but then cool back down to
below normal through remainder of the forecast. Temps will gradually
warm next week, reaching back to around normal by next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
ISSUED AT 1158 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014
Clouds have finally cleared over PIA and BMI but remain nearby. A
push of dry air across our N to NE counties should help to take
the clearing to CMI shortly after 07z and DEC by 08z. SPI appears
to have enough upstream clouds to keep them cloudy to around 08z.
Clouds should clear out from all terminal sites, with borderline
MVFR conditions CMI and DEC.
Fog may be the next concern, based spotty upstream reports of vis
reduction, including Lacons variable vis of 1V5sm. Have included a
tempo from 10-12z for MVFR 4SM BR at all TAF sites. As the high
begins to shift off to the east late tonight, a light SW return
flow will develop by sunrise. Clear skies and southwest winds at
10kt or less will prevail through the day on Sunday. Some mid
clouds will push in from the west Sunday evening.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Sunday FOR ILZ027>031-
036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Shimon
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Auten
AVIATION...Shimon
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1145 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING LARGE 1025+ MB RIDGE UPSTREAM
ACRS THE EASTERN PLAINS UP INTO THE NORTHWESTERN GRT LKS. ALOFT
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WAS INDICATING VIGOROUS VORT MAX ROLLING
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF EAST CENTRAL IL TOWARD SOUTHEAST INDIANA. TOP-
DOWN DRYING AND ENHANCED SUBSIDENCE ERODING STRATOCU DECK IN PLACE
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...BUT PROCESS OCCURRING SLOWER THAN
EARLIER ANTICIPATED. BUT EXTRAPOLATING CURRENT CLEARING TRENDS ON
VIS SATELLITE LOOP SUGGEST THE LATEST RAP HANDLING OF CLEARING
LINE REACHING JUST EAST OF THE MS RVR BY 23Z ON TRACK OR EVEN A
TOUCH SLOW. EXPECT LATE AFTERNOON HIGHS WHERE CLEARING AND SOME
INSOLATION CAN OCCUR.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014
TONIGHT...INCOMING RIDGE ON TRACK ALONG WITH CLEARING AND SFC WIND
DECOUPLE FOR A CLEAR AND CHILLY NIGHT. WILL KEEP ONGOING FROST
ADVISORY IN PLACE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I80 ON THE IL SIDE OF THE MS
RVR...BUT RACE WILL BE ON WITH PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE HIGH
PRESSURE ALLOWING LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ON IT/S WESTERN FLANK
BEFORE SUNRISE SUNDAY. BUT SOUTHEASTERLY PUSH OF MAIN RIDGE CENTER
WILL ALLOW THE LIGHT/CALM SFC WIND REGIME TO HANG ON LONGEST IN
ONGOING ADVISORY/CLOSEST TO CENTER...SO WILL LET RIDE. COLDEST TEMPS
OF LOWER 30S IN LOWER SFC DPT FIELDS OF THE NORTHEASTERN CWA....BUT
BULK OF THE CWA SHOULD RANGE IN THE MID 30S EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHWEST
FCST AREA WHERE HOPEFULLY THE RETURN FLOW MENTIONED ABOVE WILL
PREVENT TEMPS FROM DIPPING OUT OF THE UPPER 30S.
SUNDAY...INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LLVL RETURN FLOW ALONG WITH
WARM AIR ADVECTION TO BOOST TEMPS IN MOST OF THE CWA INTO THE LOW
TO MID 60S...ALTHOUGH THE NORTHEASTER THIRD COULD BE HELD DOWN IN
THE UPPER 50S. SOME PASSING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON WILL
TEMPER THE WARM UP POTENTIAL SOME...OTHERWISE SOME AREAS COULD
GET INTO THE UPPER 60S OR NEAR 70 DEGREES.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014
LONG TERM ENSEMBLE MODELS SHOW QUIET WEATHER WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE THEME DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60 WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA LATE ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WITH THE BEST
DYNAMICS AND FORCING TO OUR NORTH.. AND LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH.. THIS FRONT WILL MAINLY RESULT IN A WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST. STARTING MONDAY.. A LARGE LONG WAVE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD
OVER THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY AND REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH MID
WEEK. ON THURSDAY.. THE ENSEMBLE MODELS PROG AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TO CUT THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE AND MOVE SOUTHWEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY DRY WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT A
FEW SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE. BY NEXT WEEKEND..A MORE FLATTENED
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER MUCH OF THE NATION. THIS
RIDGE ALONG WITH CONTINUED MODERATION OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PRODUCE WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO PERHAPS
70 DEGREES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014
SURFACE RIDGE NOW ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...WITH LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALREADY BEGINNING AT KCID. AFTER
SUNRISE...SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR BUREAU-HANCOCK-
HENDERSON-HENRY IL-MCDONOUGH-MERCER-PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-
WARREN.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...KUHL
AVIATION...DMD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
311 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 203 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014
DRIZZLE IS PERSISTENT OVER ALL BUT THE SW AND FAR NW PARTS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE ADDED IT TO THE FORECAST...AND USED A 20
PERCENT POP WHERE IT WILL BE MOST PREVALENT. AS AN INVERSION LOWERS
DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS...THE MOIST LAYER WILL BECOME MORE SHALLOW
AND DRIZZLE SHOULD FINALLY TAPER OFF. IN LIGHT OF OBSERVED TEMPS AND
CLOUDS HOLDING ON...HAVE RAISED MIN TEMPS SLIGHTLY FOR THIS MORNING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1024 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014
MADE ONE LAST UPDATE TO THE FORECAST BEFORE THE END OF THE SHIFT.
BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...AND THE LATEST HRRR MODEL
DATA...ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS AND PATCHES OF DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH BETWEEN 4 AND 5Z TONIGHT. THE NEW
UPDATE WILL NO LONGER HAVE EVENING WORDING AND WILL FEATURE ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 732 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014
A MINOR UPDATE TO THE FORECAST WAS REQUIRED THIS EVENING. AN AREA OF
RAIN SHOWERS THAT INITIALLY FORMED OVER CENTRAL INDIANA HAS BECOME
QUITE ROBUST AND IS NOW MAKING ITS WAY INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. THESE
RAIN SHOWERS HAVE BECOME WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A SHORT TERM
INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE NEXT 3 OR 4 HOURS. THE
FORECAST UPDATE THAT IS ABOUT TO BE ISSUED WILL REFLECT THIS WITH 30
TO 50 POPS THROUGH 3Z. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST. THE RAIN SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY AROUND 9Z
TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG AND FROST WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT...WITH THE FROST AFFECTING OUR DEEPEST AND MOST SHELTERED
VALLEYS WHERE THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE EXPERIENCED TONIGHT.
THE FOG COULD FORM JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE DUE TO MOISTURE FROM RAIN THE
PAST FEW DAYS. THE MITIGATING FACTOR WITH THE FOG WILL BE THE COOL
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL LEAD INSTANCES OF FROST WHERE IT
GETS COLD ENOUGH. A ZONE UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED LATER IN THE SHIFT TO
GET RID OF STALE WORDING IN THE ZONES AND FOR ANY OTHER CHANGES THAT
MIGHT BE NECESSARY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 311 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY BRINGING WITH IT
LOTS OF CLOUDS AND SOME SPRINKLES. THERE IS A FAIRLY STRONG SHORT
WAVE OVER CENTRAL INDIANA THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS
EVENING THIS WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION THAN
WHAT WE ARE SEEING THIS AFTERNOON. DEPENDING OF HOW FAST THE SHORT
WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND HOW QUICKLY THE WIND DROPS OFF
TONIGHT...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY VALLEY FROST IN
THE WESTERN PORTION OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. TOMORROW NIGHT...THE CHANCES
FOR VALLEY FROST ARE A LITTLE HIGHER AS THE WINDS AND TEMPERATURES
LINE UP BETTER.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014
A PERSISTENT TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL BE THE HIGHLIGHT OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL AND
PROVIDING THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER FROM
MONDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
INTO MID WEEK...SO CONFIDENCE REMAINS FAIRLY HIGH THROUGH THE
EXTENDED.
THE PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH AN ADVANCING SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT. UNLIKE THE PAST FEW
SYSTEMS...THIS TROUGH LOOKS TO BE MORE MOISTURE STARVED...ESPECIALLY
IN THE LOWER LEVELS. THUS...NOT AS CONVINCED WE WILL SEE MUCH OUT OF
THIS FEATURE. HOWEVER...ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS THERE TO AT
LEAST SUPPORT A ISOLATED SHOWER OR SPRINKLE GOING INTO 0Z TUESDAY. A
STRONGER VORT MAX WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY...TAKING AIM ON EASTERN KENTUCKY. GIVEN THE
MODELS TENDENCY THE LAST FEW SYSTEMS TO DOWNPLAY THE STRENGTH OF
THESE FEATURES...OPTED TO GO A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE ON THE POPS AS
THE DEGREE OF FORCING ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR DECENT
COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY HEADING INTO TUESDAY. BEST CHANCES WILL RESIDE
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREAS...WITH SOUTHWEST ZONES POSSIBLY
STAYING DRY. THE INITIAL VORT MAX WILL CREATE AN UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF
LOW OVER THE EAST COAST...KEEPING THE AREA ON THE EDGE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WITH THE POTENTIAL OF ADDITIONAL
VORT MAXES DROPPING SOUTH ALONG THE BACK EDGE OF THIS TROUGH...THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR WEST ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL REACH.
THUS...RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW. WHILE MODELS START TO DIVERGE A
BIT ON HOW QUICKLY THE TROUGH WILL DEPART BY THURSDAY...THE GENERAL
CONSENSUS IS THAT CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT WITH A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A GORGEOUS STRETCH OF FALL WEATHER AS WE HEAD INTO
NEXT WEEKEND AS RIDGING BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 203 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014
CONDITIONS WERE MOSTLY MVFR AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...WITH A
SMATTERING OF IFR AND VFR. AREAS OF DRIZZLE WERE PREVALENT NE OF THE
CUMBERLAND RIVER BASIN. THE DRIZZLE WILL TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT...BUT
LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST IN MOST LOCATIONS INTO THE DAY SUNDAY.
CEILINGS SHOULD BREAK UP ON SUNDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...
LEAVING VFR TO FINISH THE PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...JMW/KAS
AVIATION...HAL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
203 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 203 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014
DRIZZLE IS PERSISTENT OVER ALL BUT THE SW AND FAR NW PARTS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE ADDED IT TO THE FORECAST...AND USED A 20
PERCENT POP WHERE IT WILL BE MOST PREVALENT. AS AN INVERSION LOWERS
DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS...THE MOIST LAYER WILL BECOME MORE SHALLOW
AND DRIZZLE SHOULD FINALLY TAPER OFF. IN LIGHT OF OBSERVED TEMPS AND
CLOUDS HOLDING ON...HAVE RAISED MIN TEMPS SLIGHTLY FOR THIS MORNING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1024 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014
MADE ONE LAST UPDATE TO THE FORECAST BEFORE THE END OF THE SHIFT.
BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...AND THE LATEST HRRR MODEL
DATA...ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS AND PATCHES OF DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH BETWEEN 4 AND 5Z TONIGHT. THE NEW
UPDATE WILL NO LONGER HAVE EVENING WORDING AND WILL FEATURE ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 732 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014
A MINOR UPDATE TO THE FORECAST WAS REQUIRED THIS EVENING. AN AREA OF
RAIN SHOWERS THAT INITIALLY FORMED OVER CENTRAL INDIANA HAS BECOME
QUITE ROBUST AND IS NOW MAKING ITS WAY INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. THESE
RAIN SHOWERS HAVE BECOME WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A SHORT TERM
INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE NEXT 3 OR 4 HOURS. THE
FORECAST UPDATE THAT IS ABOUT TO BE ISSUED WILL REFLECT THIS WITH 30
TO 50 POPS THROUGH 3Z. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST. THE RAIN SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY AROUND 9Z
TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG AND FROST WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT...WITH THE FROST AFFECTING OUR DEEPEST AND MOST SHELTERED
VALLEYS WHERE THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE EXPERIENCED TONIGHT.
THE FOG COULD FORM JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE DUE TO MOISTURE FROM RAIN THE
PAST FEW DAYS. THE MITIGATING FACTOR WITH THE FOG WILL BE THE COOL
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL LEAD INSTANCES OF FROST WHERE IT
GETS COLD ENOUGH. A ZONE UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED LATER IN THE SHIFT TO
GET RID OF STALE WORDING IN THE ZONES AND FOR ANY OTHER CHANGES THAT
MIGHT BE NECESSARY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 311 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY BRINGING WITH IT
LOTS OF CLOUDS AND SOME SPRINKLES. THERE IS A FAIRLY STRONG SHORT
WAVE OVER CENTRAL INDIANA THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS
EVENING THIS WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION THAN
WHAT WE ARE SEEING THIS AFTERNOON. DEPENDING OF HOW FAST THE SHORT
WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND HOW QUICKLY THE WIND DROPS OFF
TONIGHT...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY VALLEY FROST IN
THE WESTERN PORTION OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. TOMORROW NIGHT...THE CHANCES
FOR VALLEY FROST ARE A LITTLE HIGHER AS THE WINDS AND TEMPERATURES
LINE UP BETTER.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014
A PERSISTENT TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL BE THE HIGHLIGHT OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL AND
PROVIDING THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER FROM LATE
MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT INTO MID
WEEK...SO CONFIDENCE REMAINS FAIRLY GOOD THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
THE PERIOD WILL START AS MID LEVEL RIDGING IS DEPARTING TO THE EAST
REPLACED BY AN ADVANCING SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON
MONDAY. UNLIKE THE PAST FEW SYSTEMS...THIS TROUGH LOOKS TO BE MORE
MOISTURE STARVED...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER LEVELS. THUS...NOT AS
CONVINCED WE WILL SEE MUCH OUT OF THIS FEATURE. HOWEVER...ENOUGH MID
LEVEL MOISTURE IS THERE TO AT LEAST SUPPORT A ISOLATED SHOWER OR
SPRINKLE LATE MONDAY. A STRONGER VORT MAX WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY...TAKING AIM ON
EASTERN KENTUCKY. GIVEN THE MODELS TENDENCY THE LAST FEW SYSTEMS TO
DOWNPLAY THE STRENGTH OF THESE FEATURES...OPTED TO GO A BIT MORE
AGGRESSIVE ON THE POPS AS THE DEGREE OF FORCING ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW
FOR DECENT COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY HEADING INTO TUESDAY. BEST CHANCES
WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREAS...WITH SOUTHWEST
ZONES POSSIBLY STAYING DRY. THE INITIAL VORT MAX WILL CREATE AN UPPER
LEVEL CUT OFF LOW OVER THE EAST COAST...KEEPING THE AREA ON THE EDGE
OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WITH THE POTENTIAL OF
ADDITIONAL VORT MAXES DROPPING SOUTH ALONG THE EDGE OF THIS
TROUGH...THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR WEST ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL REACH. THUS...RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW. WHILE MODELS START
TO DIVERGE A BIT ON HOW QUICKLY THE TROUGH WILL DEPART BY
THURSDAY...THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT
WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. IT
DOES LOOK LIKE THE POTENTIAL FOR A GORGEOUS STRETCH OF FALL WEATHER
AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS RIDGING BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE
REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 203 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014
CONDITIONS WERE MOSTLY MVFR AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...WITH A
SMATTERING OF IFR AND VFR. AREAS OF DRIZZLE WERE PREVALENT NE OF THE
CUMBERLAND RIVER BASIN. THE DRIZZLE WILL TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT...BUT
LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST IN MOST LOCATIONS INTO THE DAY SUNDAY.
CEILINGS SHOULD BREAK UP ON SUNDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...
LEAVING VFR TO FINISH THE PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...HAL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
1157 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2014
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1157 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014
The low clouds are finally beginning to erode from the northeast
and southwest, so would expect at worst a scattered layer left in
another hour or two. Made some further adjustments to the grids to
get rid of the clouds sooner and lower temperatures a bit where
the clouds have been lingering.
The AVIATION section has been updated for the 06Z TAF issuance.
UPDATE Issued at 944 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014
Clouds have proven to be much more stubborn than expected. Noticed
that the 850mb and 925mb winds from the KVWX VAD wind profile are
now out of the north northeast, which could push the clouds back
to the south and west a bit late this evening. Beginning to wonder
if the clearing isn`t going to more from north to south rather
than the west to east that is currently advertised. The RAP seems
to have a decent clue with the cloud and temperature trends, so used it
as a guide for this update, which has the clouds eventually
clearing the east very late tonight.
Most places still likely to drop to near 40 by morning. Patchy
frost will be possible over a lot of the area, but the most likely
areas will be in a zone from Cape Girardeau to Carbondale, where
temperatures will be in the upper 30s the longest. Still don`t
feel like this will be a significant or widespread frost even in
that area.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 258 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014
Wvapor loop showed a fairly energetic mid level low over wcntrl IN
moving SE. Area of showers with this fast moving feature over IN
should stay east of our SW IN counties this afternoon. Meanwhile an
expansive area of cu/strato-cu continues to move SSE across our
CWFA. Clouds up across IA quickly dissipated. That gives us a
better indication of how to track the west edge, and what to do
with the progression of the clouds the rest of the day. The cloud
bank moving south across central sections of IL appears more than
diurnally driven. So it may take some time through the late
afternoon and evening to completely rid the clouds, especially east
of the Mississippi.
Otherwise, overnight, once it clears, and with calm winds, cannot
rule out patchy late night frost portions of southern IL, into
southwest IN. This is based on the possibility of reaching coolest
MET guidance numbers, which is what we went with. Even with that,
given soil temps, and marginal conditions, if it does form, it`d be
spotty, and most likely on elevated surfaces that can radiate
"heat" most efficiently. Could be more in the way of dew. No
products will be issued, but a patchy mention will be in the
grid/public forecast in the aforementioned areas. Could be patchy
ground type fog too some areas.
High pressure will move east of the area Sunday. Dry air mass means
little in the way of cloud cover. Sunday night should be dry for
the most part too. However between about 08z-12z Monday, the models
bring a band of moisture into our northern counties (SRN IL, SW
IN), ahead of a mid level trof and embedded PVA, that could result
in isolated light showers. Will carry that slight chance across
the rest of the CWFA through the morning, then end chances Monday
afternoon, though a few sprinkles may linger SE sections (WRN KY)
before the left over dwindling moisture departs. In most cases,
would probably trend dry (been flip flopping a bit on these slight
chances), but given the degree of forcing the models have shown in
the omega and QG fields, slights are warranted. Most areas will
not see much if anything. Dry weather Monday night with high
pressure returning.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 258 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014
Beyond Monday night`s cold frontal passage, an extremely uneventful
weather pattern is shaping up through the remainder of the week. To
start the period, an upper level ridge will be centered over the
Plains with a trough over the eastern U.S. Some lingering low
level moisture may result in scattered to broken stratocumulus on
Tuesday, especially in the northeastern 1/3 of our forecast area.
Beyond that, the upper level ridge is forecast to build east into
the Mississippi Valley through Thursday as the core of surface high
pressure gradually shifts south from the Great Lakes. Late in the
week, an approaching shortwave trough will be deflected to the south
as it runs into the ridge overhead. The resultant cut-off low that
parks itself over the Gulf Coast States next weekend will act to
keep any precipitation potential south of the immediate area.
Temperatures through the period will be near seasonable. Highs will
range through the 60s each day, but may close in on the 70 degree
mark by the weekend. Lows through the period will be in the 40s.
Guidance would suggest little concern for frost formation during
this time. However, Wednesday night may be an exception as we
currently have lows forecast near 40. If this proves to be a few
degrees too warm, then we may need to consider the addition of at
least patchy frost in later forecasts.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 1157 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014
Clouds finally showing signs of clearing at KEVV and KOWB, so will
not forecast any ceiling condition to begin the period.
Could see some IFR or lower fog at KCGI, but with the sensor
issues at KCGI we will have no way to monitor. Therefore went with
a "AMD NOT SKED" in the 06Z TAF.
IFR fog possible at KPAH, especially if the temperature drops
into the upper 30s. With the clouds yet to scatter at KEVV and
KOWB, cannot see anything more than a brief period of MVFR fog
right at sunrise there.
As for Sunday, may see a few cu, but high clouds will be
increasing from the west through the day. A light south wind may
eventually mix down by midday and continue into the evening.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DRS
AVIATION...DRS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
109 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014
.AVIATION...
//DISCUSSION...
DRY AIR HAS TAKEN A BIT LONGER TO MAKE ITS WAY OVER THE TAF SITES
THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...HOWEVER IT LOOKS TO HAVE FINALLY TAKEN
HOLD FROM FNT SOUTH TO THE METRO AIRPORTS. THE MAIN EXCEPTION IS MBS
WHERE LAKE CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BRING A SCT-BKN DECK AROUND 2500 TO
3000 FT. EVEN THESE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT IN A FEW
HOURS AS THE FLOW TURNS WESTERLY...ENDING THE ADVECTION OF CLOUDS
FROM NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. SUNDAY WILL BE A RATHER TRANQUIL DAY
AS RIDGING PASSES THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. CLOUDS WILL
THICKEN SUNDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKING THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. ANY RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD OR INTO
THE NEXT ISSUANCE.
//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...
* NONE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 347 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014
SHORT TERM... AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT
GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND CONTINUES TO CARRY COOLER AIR INTO SE MICHIGAN
DURING THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A
FROSTY NIGHT AS THE WIND DROPS OFF AND MIN TEMPS DROP BELOW
FREEZING. READINGS AS LOW AS THE UPPER 20S WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
INTERIOR LOWER DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER.
MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS CAPTURE THE AFTERNOON BOUNDARY LAYER
BECOMING INCREASINGLY SHALLOW AND MORE STABLE TOWARD EVENING...A
TREND ILLUSTRATED IN THE 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS BETWEEN APX AND
DTX...AND REFLECTED IN RADAR TREND DURING THE AFTERNOON. FROM
THERE...IT IS MORE DIFFICULT TO GAGE THE MODEL SOUNDING QUALITY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. THE MAIN STICKING POINT LIES WITH THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AT THE BASE OF THE STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION THAT DROPS AS LOW AS 900 MB BY 12Z SUNDAY. THERE IS ABOUT
AN EVEN SPLIT BETWEEN THE CLOUDIER NAM AND RAP MODELS VS THE MORE
OPTIMISTIC GFS AND SREF MEAN. OBSERVATIONAL EVIDENCE SUPPORTS THE
LATTER AS DRIER AIR MAKES INROADS THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES UPSTREAM CLOUDS TAKING ON A CONVINCING
LAKE INFLUENCE AND DIURNAL DEPENDENCY OVER LAND WHICH WILL RESULT IN
NOCTURNAL STRATOCU REMAINING CLOSER TO THE SHORELINES. NEUTRAL
NORTH-NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW ALSO FAVORS LESS CLOUDS IN OUR AREA
WITH A DRY DOWNSLOPE TRAJECTORY FROM NORTHERN LOWER INTO THE SAGINAW
VALLEY AND OVER THE REST OF SE MICHIGAN DURING THE NIGHT. THE
EXCEPTION COULD BE OVER THE NORTHERN/EASTERN THUMB WHERE A LONGER
OVER WATER FETCH WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM ABOUT STURGEON POINT
SOUTHWARD WHICH COULD MAINTAIN GREATER STRATOCU COVERAGE THERE
THROUGH SUNRISE SUNDAY.
LONG TERM...
MODEST HEIGHT RISES TOMORROW WITH SOME SEMBLANCE OF WARM FRONT
LIFTING NORTH THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN. UNCERTAINTY IS WITH THE AMOUNT
OF LOW LEVEL WARMING AND SCOURING OUT OF REMNANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...AS NAM SOUNDINGS/925 MB RH FIELD STILL PAINTS A POTENTIAL
CLOUD HINDRANCE...AND A SOMEWHAT CONSERVATIVE APPROACH IN MAXES WILL
BE TAKEN OFF THE COLD START AND WITH 925 MB TEMPS FORECASTED TO ONLY
RISE TO 4 C DURING PEAK HEATING...WORTHY OF MAXES AROUND 50/LOWER
50S DE AS HIGH CLOUDS ALSO EXPECTED TO RAMP UP DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY OVER WESTERN CANADA WILL BE CARVING OUT ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY AS WE HEAD
INTO MONDAY. THE RATE OF AMPLIFICATION IS A BIT UNCERTAIN...BUT
850-700 MB THETA-E RIDGE/MOISTURE AXIS LOOKS PRETTY GOOD...ARRIVING
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY...WITH HIGH CHANCE/LOW LIKELY POPS
SEEMING APPROPRIATE. 500 MB COLD CORE (-23 TO-25 C) TO TRAVERSE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...AND LI`S ARE FORECASTED TO DROP
TOWARD ZERO...WITH AROUND 500 J/KG OF CAPE (PER NAM)...AND AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT AND
CONTINUED LOW CHANCE POPS IN CASE AMPLIFICATION IS FASTER...YIELDING
SLIGHTLY SLOWER FRONTAL PASSAGE/DRYING OUT PROCESS.
UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE
SLOWLY-DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH WHICH WILL CUT OFF OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND. THIS WILL LEAD TO
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES...WITH A
RETURN TO HIGHS IN THE 60S POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
MARINE...
OBSERVATIONS LATE THIS AFTERNOON SHOW WIND GUSTS BELOW GALE FORCE
AND WILL DROP THE GALE WARNINGS WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...AS
PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS AND THE COLD ADVECTION DIMINISHES INTO
TONIGHT. MUCH LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW AS SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS SLIDES THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...LEADING TO A SHIFT IN
THE WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL
PASS THROUGH LATE MONDAY. SUSTAINED WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK OUT
AROUND 20 KNOTS SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS DEVELOPING. A STRONG HIGH BUILDING OVER ONTARIO
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL TRANSLATE TO STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS
OVER LAKE HURON...WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE LAKE...WHERE THE FETCH WILL BE GREATEST. HIGHER WAVES
WILL IMPACT NEARSHORE WATERS WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW...AND SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT
HURON INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY...UNTIL 4 AM SUNDAY.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....KURIMSKI
SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM....SF/DT
MARINE.......SF
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
230 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...BRINGING AN END TO THE SHOWERS. SKIES WILL CLEAR
OVERNIGHT BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FROST OVERNIGHT IN SOME LOCATIONS. A DRY AND COOL
SUNDAY IS EXPECTED...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW NORMAL WITH
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MID-EVENING GOES SATELLITE DATA /11.0-3.9 MICRON DIFFERENCE
CHANNEL/ SHOWS BACK EDGE OF STRATOCUMULUS FIELD RUNNING FROM PEORIA
IL TO KALAMAZOO MI. PUTTING A TIME TREND ON THIS LEADS TO THIS
CLEARING LINE REACHING A MIDDLETOWN TO COLUMBUS LINE AT APPROX 4
AM...WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TIME FOR A LATE TEMP DROP AND FROST
FORMATION NORTH OF THIS LINE. SOUTH OF THIS LINE /WHICH IS THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES OF CURRENT FROST ADVISORY/ IT COULD
REALLY GO EITHER WAY. IF LOW CLOUDS DEPART AFTER 5 AM...DOUBT
THERE IS ENOUGH TIME FOR FROST FORMATION BUT WILL BE CLOSE AS
SUNRISE IS NOT UNTIL CLOSE TO 8 AM. LATEST GUIDANCE DRIVES STRONG
DRYING AT 850MB THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT...HOWEVER A
DEVELOPING VERY STRONG INVERSION AT 900MB LATER IN THE NIGHT MAY
REALLY DELAY/MITIGATE MIXING OUT THE TOP OF A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER AND EFFECTIVELY LINGER CLOUDS. 19.18Z NAM IS VERY MUCH IN
THIS CAMP...AS ARE RECENT RAP RUNS. 19.18Z GFS REALLY BLOWS ALL
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AWAY...AND OVERLAYING MODEL RH FIELDS ATOP THE
SATELLITE DATA SUGGESTS THE NAM TOO BULLISH KEEPING RH AND GFS TOO
AGGRESSIVE. SO SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE IS PROBABLY CLOSER TO
REALITY...WHICH LEADS TO LOWER CONFIDENCE IN MAKING ANY CHANGES TO
TEMPS/CURRENT FROST ADVISORY. THINK BEST CHANCES IN WCNTL
OHIO/ECNTL IND /WHICH MAY FLIRT WITH A HARD FREEZE/ AND RAPIDLY
LOWERING CHANCES TO THE SOUTH/EAST FROM CVG TO ILN TO SOUTH/EAST
OF CMH. WE MAY BE A TIER OF COUNTIES TOO FAR SOUTH WITH ADVISORY
BUT CAN/T NITPICK AT THIS POINT WITH CONFIDENCE ON CLEARING WHERE
IT IS AT. BUT GIVEN THE BACK EDGE CONTINUES TO MOVE STEADILY...AND
SOME HOLES OPENING UP AHEAD OF THE BACK EDGE...FEEL COMFORTABLE
KEEPING ADVRY/TEMPS AS THEY ARE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AMPLE SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY WITH JUST SOME HIGH THIN CLOUDS AHEAD OF
NEXT APPROACHING S/WV FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WITH THE NW
FLOW EARLY BACKING A BIT AND CAA BECOMING MORE NEUTRAL...TEMPS IN
THE LOW TO MID 50S STILL LOOKS GOOD BUT RAISED SLIGHTLY IN THE SW
WHERE SOME LATE DAY WAA MAY BUMP TEMPS INTO THE UPR 50S.
MORE MODERATE TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS AND WARM AIR AHEAD OF THE NEXT S/WV TO DROP DOWN FROM CNTRL
LOWER CANADA THROUGH WESTERN GREAT LAKES. BEST MOISTURE REMAINS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN FCST AREA SO HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES
HERE. HAVE RAISED PRECIP CHANCES SLIGHTLY DURING THE DAY
MONDAY...THEN FAIRLY SLOW DEPARTURE WITH THE INCREASINGLY
AMPLIFIED UPR LEVEL PATTERN LINGERING THE UPR TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED MID/UPR LEVEL FLOW WITH A SHARP RIDGE OVER THE
NATIONS MID SECTION AND A TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING DOWN INTO THE MEAN TROF WILL PROVIDE A
CONTD CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACRS THE EAST.
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL...
WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S NORTH TO THE UPPER 50S SOUTH.
NUMERICAL MODEL SOLNS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING UPPER LOW CUTTING
OFF TO OUR EAST OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AT MID WEEK, WILL END
ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION EARLY WEDNESDAY. IN NORTHERLY FLOW
AROUND THIS UPPER LOW...SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD SOUTH INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. THIS HIGH WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER THRU THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE WED/THUR...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S. SOME
MODERATION TO TAKE PLACE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH HIGHS CLOSER TO
NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTH TO MIDDLE 60S SOUTH.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BACK EDGE OF STRATOCU DECK WILL BE THROUGH DAYTON IN THE PREDAWN
HOURS AND ILN/CMH/LCK TOWARDS DAYBREAK. SLOW PROGRESSION SOUTHWARD
WILL LIKELY NOT LET IT REACH CVG/LUK UNTIL AROUND NOON. FAIR WX CU
WILL BE ON THE DECREASE THROUGH THE FEW HOURS FOLLOWING THE
PASSAGE OF THE BACK EDGE OF THE SOLID CLOUD DECK. NORTHWEST WINDS
AT OR UNDER 10KT WILL TURN WESTERLY FOR THE BETTER PART OF THE DAY
AND THEN SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT. CI WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
OVERNIGHT.
.OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ026-034-035-
042>046-051>056-060>065-070>072-077-080.
KY...NONE.
IN...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ050-058-059-
066-073-074.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JDR
NEAR TERM...BINAU
SHORT TERM...JDR
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...FRANKS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
312 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014
LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHERN
MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN CANADA. LATEST FOG PRODUCT SATELLITE
INDICATE MID LEVEL CLOUDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PRODUCING SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA...EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHWEST MINNESOTA PER MOSAIC RADAR.
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON...THEN CLOUDS TONIGHT.
THE 19.00Z GFS/NAM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN PUSHING AND DEEPENING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY
INTO TONIGHT. MINOR DIFFERENCES ARE INDICATED BETWEEN THE 19.00Z
GFS/NAM WITH THE GFS SLIGHTLY FASTER IN MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAN
THE NAM. BOTH THE 19.00Z MODELS ARE SHOWING DECENT PV ADVECTION AND
QG FORCING ABOVE 700MB IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE BIGGEST CONCERN WILL BE
SATURATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE COLUMN...AS THE LATEST 19.00Z UPPER AIR
SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST INDICATES VERY DRY MID LEVEL
AIRMASS OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL INHIBIT ANY PRECIPITATION REACHING
THE GROUND OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT. WITH
THE BETTER LIFT AND DEEPER MOISTURE OVER NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
SPRINKLES TO OCCUR AND HAVE INTRODUCE A SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCE
OVER TAYLOR COUNTY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE 19.00Z GFS/NAM TIME
CROSS SECTIONS SHOW SUBSIDENCE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND MOISTURE
QUICKLY EXITING THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 03Z MONDAY. CURRENT
FORECAST HAS GOOD HANDLE ON SKY TRENDS TONIGHT ACROSS FORECAST
AREA...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES...THE 19.00Z GFS/NAM SHOW MOISTURE AT 850MB
AND BELOW ADVECTING INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN AFTER 12Z
MONDAY. THIS MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY AND PRODUCE STRATO/CUMULUS DECK
OF CLOUDS OVER THIS AREA. THE 19.00Z GFS/NAM ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
IN BUILDING SURFACE RIDGE AND HEIGHT RISES OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
AND NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH SUBSIDENCE AND
DRIER AIRMASS ADVECTING INTO THE FORECAST AREA...THIS SHOULD ALLOW
CLOUDS TO ERODE OVER THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND
BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY.
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WEDNESDAY INTO SATURDAY ARE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THEN TEMPERATURES FOR REST
OF THE PERIOD. THE 19.00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
BUILDING UPPER RIDGE INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY AND
ADVECTING WARMER AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA...WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES WARMING TO PLUS 10 TO PLUS 13 DEGREES CELSIUS BY 00Z
THURSDAY. THEN...SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES OCCUR BETWEEN THE 19.00Z
MODELS ON HOW FAST TO BREAK DOWN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND
PLACEMENT/MOVEMENT OF UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH MEANDERING OVER THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. ALSO...MAJOR DIFFERENCES OCCUR BETWEEN THE MODELS WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL
UNITED STATES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WHERE...THE 19.00Z GFS BY 12Z
FRIDAY HAS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...THE 19.00Z
ECMWF HAS SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
DEVELOPS WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND THE 19.00Z
GEM DEVELOPS WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN
TIER STATES. DUE TO ALL OF THESE INCONSISTENCIES...THIS WILL HAVE
IMPACTS ON SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AND TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
IS LOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014
LIGHT SFC/NEAR SFC WIND FIELD WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD SUGGESTS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR RIVER VALLEY FOG. T/TD SPREAD WAS 6 F AT
03Z...GOOD INDICATOR FOR DENSE FOG. HOWEVER...THERE ARE A COUPLE
DRAWBACKS. FIRST IS THE HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING FOR THE WINDS RIGHT ABOVE THE NOCTURNAL
INVERSION TO INCREASE. RAP BUFKIT SOUNDING INCREASING TO 14KTS AT
200 FT BY 07Z. THE SECOND IS SCT-BKN HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING IN
FROM THE WEST...AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THINK SOME
THIN BR/STRATUS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE RIVER...BUT MAY NOT SPREAD
OUTSIDE OF ITS BANKS. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP KLSE FOG FREE FOR
NOW...BUT IT WILL NEED MONITORING.
HIGH/MID LEVEL CIGS FOR A PORTION OF THE DAY SUNDAY...WITH
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS BY MID MORNING. EXPECT A FEW HIGHER
GUSTS...WITH SUSTAINED AROUND 15KTS OR SO. WINDS WILL BECOME
WESTERLY SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE/S SURFACE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. NOT EXPECTING ANY PCPN.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM...DTJ
AVIATION.....RIECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
814 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 810 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014
MADE A QUICK UPDATE TO THE SHORT TERM POP/WX/QPF FIELDS FOR
SHOWERS OVER DOTSERO...WOLCOTT...AND GILMAN AREA THIS MORNING.
CLOUD TOPS ON IR SATELLITE ARE WARMING...AN INDICATION THAT THESE
SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. AFTERNOON
FORECAST STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A STRAY TSTORM
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SAN JUANS AND POTENTIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL
MTNS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014
MIDLEVEL CLOUDS PERSIST THIS MORNING WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT SHOWING
UP ON RADAR NEAR THE GRAND AND BATTLEMENT MESAS. THE GREATER
RESOLUTION HRRR MODEL IS PICKING UP ON THIS REMARKABLY WELL THOUGH
IT DOES SHOW THE ENHANCEMENT ENDING IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. AS
FAR AS THE BIG PICTURE IS CONCERNED...CLOSED LOW OVER SRN CALIF
AND WRN AZ IS PROGGED TO FILL TODAY AS IT MOVES EAST WHILE
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL WINDS BRING SOME MOISTURE UP FROM THE
SOUTH. MODELS INDICATING ANOTHER DAY OF SHOWERS FOR MAINLY HIGHER
ELEVATIONS SOUTH OF I-70. WHILE NO STORMS FORMED YESTERDAY...CHANCES
LOOK BETTER TODAY AS A BIT MORE INSTABILITY IS PRESENT AND LESS
CLOUDS WILL ALLOW MORE DAYTIME HEATING. WHILE MOST CONVECTION WILL
DIE DOWN SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...A FEW SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE AFTER
THAT. THE REST OF THE CWA WILL SEE MORE SUN THAN YESTERDAY AS WARM
TEMPS CONTINUE.
TONIGHT-SUNDAY...IN SPITE OF THE BLOCKING NATURE OF THE UPPER
PATTERN...BOTH THE NW MEXICAN LOW AND THE CO HIGH REMAIN
PROGRESSIVE. THE MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE SOUTH FLOW WILL
PRODUCE A FEW NOCTURNAL SHOWERS TONIGHT OVER THE SOUTHERN MTNS.
THE BREAK DOWN OF THE RIDGE ON MONDAY INCREASES MARGINAL
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MTNS FOR A MENTION OF ISOLATED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE NORTH
OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LOW WEAKENS OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO AS THE PACIFIC TROUGH COMES ONSHORE MONDAY NIGHT THEN LIFTS
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY TUESDAY
NIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE SPREADS INTO THE NORTHERN ZONES WITH 700
SPECIFIC HUMIDITY UNIFORMALY NEAR 6 G/KG. SCATTERED SHOWERS
MONDAY NIGHT INCREASE ON TUESDAY WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
FAVORING THE SOUTH. THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A 60KT JET WORKS
ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.
SNOW LEVELS LOWER TO AROUND 9KFT TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME SNOW
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED IN THE SAN JUAN AND WEST ELK/RAGGEDS MTN
RANGES.
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SFC
COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN NEAR 9K
FEET WITH A FEW MORE INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL DROP SEVERAL DEGREES AS COLD AIR
FILTERS IN WITH BIGGEST CHANGES FELT UP NORTH. TEMPERATURE
CONTRAST NOT EXPECTED TO BE TOO GREAT THE FURTHER SOUTH ONE GOES.
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD BRINGS HIGH PRESSURE. THE
AXIS OF THIS RIDGE WILL GET FORCED ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDWEST AS
AN ENERGETIC JET STREAM TAKES AIM AT THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WE
WILL REMAIN DRY AS THE NWRN STATES SEE A PROLONGED WED PERIOD. SOME
HIGH CLOUDS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS TEMPERATURES START WARMING UP
UNDER SWLY FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 251 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014
MIDLEVEL CIGS CONTINUE TO BE REPORTED THIS MORNING WITH MOST CIGS
AROUND 10K THOUGH A FEW SITES REPORTING CIGS NEAR 5K FEET AT
TIMES. MORE SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY
GENERALLY OVER HIGHER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70.
CONVECTION WILL BEING AROUND 18Z REACHING A MAXIMUM BETWEEN 21Z
AND 00Z. EVEN SO...FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR FOR THE
MOST PART. SOME MTN OBSCURATIONS...ESPECIALLY THE SAN
JUANS...EXPECTED TODAY.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JAM
SHORT TERM...TGR/JOE
LONG TERM...TGR/JOE
AVIATION...TGR
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
956 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 956 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014
Persistent area of clouds that failed to completely clear out of
central Illinois last night remains in place across parts of the
area this morning. 1430z visible satellite imagery shows cloud
cover along/east of a Peoria to Springfield line. These low clouds
are beginning to advance to the E/NE as S/SW winds develop on the
back-side of departing high pressure. As winds increase, the
forward speed of the clouds will as well, so am expecting them to
depart the CWA into Indiana by early afternoon. After that, mostly
sunny skies with only a few high/thin cirrus clouds can be
anticipated for the balance of the day. Due to the sunshine and
southwesterly winds, afternoon high temperatures will be quite a
bit warmer than previous days, with readings reaching the upper
50s and lower 60s. Made some adjustments to hourly sky grids to
better time the expected clearing and tweaked hourly temps.
Forecast update has already been issued.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014
Pesky low clouds continue to linger across the southern 2/3 or so of
the forecast area early this morning. This fact is holding surface
temperatures and dew points up considerably, and mitigating the
frost threat. However, temperatures have fallen to frosty level
across northern portion of the forecast area where skies have
cleared. HRRR and RAP models both suggest clouds should linger for
at least a few more hours across much of the southern CWA, something
that is hard to argue with looking at recent satellite trends. So,
plan to drop Frost Advisory from the southern half of the forecast
area.
Otherwise, quiet weather is on tap for the forecast area today, with
weak short wave ridging drifting overhead, and the associated
surface ridge pushing off to the east. Low level return flow on the
back side of the surface ridge will help push temperatures back into
the 60s today across much of the forecast area. However, the tricky
cloud cover forecast would likely impact how warm we ultimately get.
While most of the synoptic models suggest a mostly sunny day can be
expected, the high resolution HRRR & RAP, suggest at least the first
half of the day may trend closer to mostly cloudy. The high res
models have a better handle on what is occurring at the moment, so
I`m reluctant to disregard their solutions.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014
A fast moving wave currently across North Dakota is expected to drop
into the Great Lakes on Monday. The main low will stay well to our
northeast, with the trailing cold front sweeping through the
forecast area through early Monday afternoon. The threat of showers
with this feature is mainly across the southeast half of the
forecast area late evening through the overnight hours, with the GFS
and ECMWF both in decent agreement, while the NAM persists with a
dry forecast. Soundings do not show much moisture, so any showers
that occur will be fairly light. Have lingered some 30% PoP`s in the
far southeast CWA into early Monday morning, although have limited
this to areas south of I-70.
Otherwise, largely quiet week on tap for the area, as skinny ridge
builds toward the Mississippi Valley mid week with development of a
large cutoff low over the eastern states. As the eastern low slowly
drifts east late week, a deep shortwave across the Plains will
eventually split with a piece of energy forming a secondary cutoff
low over the lower Mississippi Valley. As this occurs, the threat of
rain east of the river will evaporate quickly Thursday evening with
the moisture being drawn toward this southern low.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
ISSUED AT 654 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014
Aside from some patchy MVFR/IFR conditions early this morning,
predominantly VFR conditions are expected across the central
Illinois terminals through the 12Z TAF valid time. Light/variable
winds to start the day will increase in speed and shift to the
southwest as a ridge of high pressure pushes east of the area. A
disturbance will move across the area late tonight. While a light
shower can`t be ruled out, the chances are too low to include in
the TAFS at this time.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Barnes
SHORT TERM...Bak
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Bak
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
942 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014
.DISCUSSION...
320 AM...FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR SPRINKLES TONIGHT AND THEN LAKE
EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
LOWER CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED ALL BUT FAR EASTERN CWA...AND WILL BE
CLEARING THERE BEFORE SUNRISE. WITH CALM WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA...TEMPS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 30S MOST AREAS AND THE FROST ADVISORY AND ITS TIMING
IS ON TRACK. SOME PATCHY/SHALLOW GROUND FOG HAS DEVELOPED AND NOT
EXPECTING THIS TO BECOME WIDESPREAD.
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM MANITOBA TODAY REACHING THE
NORTHERN LAKES TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SOME BETWEEN
THIS LOW AND THE DEPARTING HIGH WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AT
TIMES...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA. SHOULD BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE TO START BUT INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING. A TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM THIS LOW WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH LIMITED FORCING/MOISTURE. BETTER
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WILL LIKELY REMAIN BOTH NORTH AND
SOUTH OF THE CWA AND REMOVED MENTIONABLE POPS.
AS COLDER AIR SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY NIGHT...LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AND AFFECT MAINLY NORTHWEST INDIANA
BUT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES TUESDAY...
ITS POSSIBLE WINDS MAY TURN ENOUGH TO THE NORTHEAST FOR A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS TO REACH EASTERN COOK COUNTY TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE THE
PRECIP DISSIPATES AS THE HIGH BUILDS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS HIGH WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND QUIET WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS THURSDAY AND
POSSIBLY REACHING THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY BUT MODELS
WEAKEN THIS CONSIDERABLY SHOWING NO PRECIP REACHING THE CWA. CMS
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 14Z...
* GUSTY SW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.
KMD
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
PATCHY GROUND FOG IN RURAL AREAS WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING AND GRADUALLY INCREASING.
WILL LIKELY BE SOME AT LEAST SPORIDIC GUSTINESS THIS
AFTERNOON...THOUGH INCREASING CLOUD COVER COULD LIMIT THE DURATION
AND INTENSITY OF THE GUSTS SOME. WINDS AROUND 2000FT AGL INCREASE
TO 35-40KT FOR A TIME THIS EVENING...THOUGH EXPECT ENOUGH MIXING
IN THE LOW LEVEL AND STRONG ENOUGH SFC WINDS TO PRECLUDE A BIG
LLWS PROBLEM. FRONT WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST MONDAY
MORNING BUT LITTLE THREAT OF ANY PRECIP EXISTS WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. OTHER THAN THIS MORNING`S RURAL GROUND FOG LOOK FOR VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE.
IZZI
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 12Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL FORECAST ELEMENTS
IZZI
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR.
IZZI
&&
.MARINE...
209 AM CDT
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION TONIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RAMP UP TODAY IN
ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM WITH A PERIOD OF NEAR GALE FORCE SOUTHWEST
WINDS EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON
TRANSLATING SOUTH TO SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN THIS EVENING. THE
DURATION OF GALE FORCE GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING LOOKS
TO BE SHORT IN MOST LOCATIONS WITH A DURATION PROBABLY ONLY A
COUPLE-FEW HOURS. GIVEN THE SHORT DURATION AND MARGINAL SET-UP HAVE
OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON GALE HEADLINES AND JUST INCLUDE A FEW GUSTS TO
GALES IN THE GLF/GRIDS. A PERIOD OF FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS IS
EXPECTED LATE MONDAY THOUGH TUESDAY AS LOW MOVES MORE SLOWLY
EASTWARD AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. BY MIDWEEK
WINDS/WAVES SHOULD SUBSIDE ON THE LAKE WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS
EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
IZZI
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...FROST ADVISORY...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-
ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022-
ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL 10 AM SUNDAY.
IN...FROST ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019 UNTIL 10 AM
SUNDAY.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-
LMZ745...7 PM SUNDAY TO 3 AM MONDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
655 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014
Pesky low clouds continue to linger across the southern 2/3 or so of
the forecast area early this morning. This fact is holding surface
temperatures and dew points up considerably, and mitigating the
frost threat. However, temperatures have fallen to frosty level
across northern portion of the forecast area where skies have
cleared. HRRR and RAP models both suggest clouds should linger for
at least a few more hours across much of the southern CWA, something
that is hard to argue with looking at recent satellite trends. So,
plan to drop Frost Advisory from the southern half of the forecast
area.
Otherwise, quiet weather is on tap for the forecast area today, with
weak short wave ridging drifting overhead, and the associated
surface ridge pushing off to the east. Low level return flow on the
back side of the surface ridge will help push temperatures back into
the 60s today across much of the forecast area. However, the tricky
cloud cover forecast would likely impact how warm we ultimately get.
While most of the synoptic models suggest a mostly sunny day can be
expected, the high resolution HRRR & RAP, suggest at least the first
half of the day may trend closer to mostly cloudy. The high res
models have a better handle on what is occurring at the moment, so
I`m reluctant to disregard their solutions.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014
A fast moving wave currently across North Dakota is expected to drop
into the Great Lakes on Monday. The main low will stay well to our
northeast, with the trailing cold front sweeping through the
forecast area through early Monday afternoon. The threat of showers
with this feature is mainly across the southeast half of the
forecast area late evening through the overnight hours, with the GFS
and ECMWF both in decent agreement, while the NAM persists with a
dry forecast. Soundings do not show much moisture, so any showers
that occur will be fairly light. Have lingered some 30% PoP`s in the
far southeast CWA into early Monday morning, although have limited
this to areas south of I-70.
Otherwise, largely quiet week on tap for the area, as skinny ridge
builds toward the Mississippi Valley mid week with development of a
large cutoff low over the eastern states. As the eastern low slowly
drifts east late week, a deep shortwave across the Plains will
eventually split with a piece of energy forming a secondary cutoff
low over the lower Mississippi Valley. As this occurs, the threat of
rain east of the river will evaporate quickly Thursday evening with
the moisture being drawn toward this southern low.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
ISSUED AT 654 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014
Aside from some patchy MVFR/IFR conditions early this morning,
predominantly VFR conditions are expected across the central
Illinois terminals through the 12Z TAF valid time. Light/variable
winds to start the day will increase in speed and shift to the
southwest as a ridge of high pressure pushes east of the area. A
disturbance will move across the area late tonight. While a light
shower can`t be ruled out, the chances are too low to include in
the TAFS at this time.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY until 8 AM CDT this morning FOR ILZ027>031-
036>038-040>048.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Bak
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Bak
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
922 AM MST SUN OCT 19 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...BRINGING A CHANCE OF MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND STORMS. ANOTHER
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY HOWEVER ONLY A FEW
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. CONDITIONS WILL WARM UP BY MID
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SHEARED UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING. UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS REVEALS THE 250-300MB LOW IS OVER NORTHEAST ARIZONA WHILE
THE 500-700MB LOW IS DISPLACED OVER THE AZ/MEX BORDER. RADAR IMAGERY
REVEALS A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE FORMED IN THE MOUNTAINS
NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX...EVEN SEEING A BIT OF THUNDER ACROSS THE AREA
THIS MORNING. NOT REALLY SURPRISING AS BOTH TWC AND FGZ 12Z
SOUNDINGS DEPICTED NEARLY DRY-ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES IN THE MID
LEVELS.
FOR THE REST OF TODAY...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND EXPAND
IN THE MOUNTAINS AND WITH WEAK EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT...THEY MAY TRY
AND DRIFT INTO THE LOWER DESERTS. WITH VERY MEAGER INSTABILITY ON
THE ORDER OF 100 J/KG ACROSS THE DESERTS...CONVECTION WILL STRUGGLE
FROM PHOENIX WESTWARD. THE HRRR IS CERTAINLY THE MOST AGGRESSIVE OF
ALL THE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS AND SUGGESTED THERE SHOULD HAVE
BEEN PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTH VALLEY AROUND 15Z THIS MORNING. THE
LOCAL WRFS...LOCAL WRF ENSEMBLE...SSEO...AND SREF ALL HAVE A MORE
REALISTIC ADVERTISEMENT OF STORM CHANCES LATER AND THIS MATCHES WHAT
WAS ALREADY IN THE FORECAST. ONLY MAKING MINOR REVISIONS TO THE
ORIENTATION OF POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. STORMS COULD LINGER
SHORTLY AFTER 00Z BEFORE DAYTIME HEATING IS COMPLETELY LOST BUT
OTHERWISE THE STORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY THIS EVENING.
TEMPS LOOK GOOD...ANOTHER DAY AROUND 90 LOOKS LIKE A SAFE BET. NO
OTHER CHANGES FORTHCOMING.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MONDAY...
ALTHOUGH THE LAGGING AND SLOWER MOVING 500 MB TROF FINALLY SHIFTS
INTO SOUTHEAST AZ MONDAY AFTERNOON...THE 300/250 MB CIRCULATION
CENTERS ACCELERATE INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
RESULTING IN STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE OVER AZ. THEREFORE MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST OVER OUR AREA...SOUTHEAST CA TO SOUTH CENTRAL AZ.
TUESDAY...
THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL MOVE INTO
WESTERN STATES ON TUESDAY. ANY PRECIP WILL BE CONFINED TO PARTS OF
UTAH AND ALONG THE EASTERN AZ BORDER...BUT MAINLY IN NEW MEXICO.
THEREFORE EXCEPT FOR SOME HIGH CLOUDS...FORECASTS WILL REMAIN DRY
WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN BUILDING OVER THE FORECAST
AREA WEDNESDAY...THEN STRENGTHEN INTO THE WEEKEND. THEREFORE NEARLY
CLOUDLESS SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
LATE OCTOBER.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
LINGER THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH CLEARING SKIES THIS EVENING.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN TO THE EAST AND NORTH
OF THE PHOENIX AREA...STAYING CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED AND NO
AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
A PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS PASSING THROUGH THE AREA WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS EAST OF PHOENIX...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A GRADUAL DRYING TREND IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITIES IN
THE LOWER DESERTS RANGING FROM AROUND 20 PERCENT ON TUESDAY TO THE
LOW TO MID TEENS ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND
FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERNS EACH DAY.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...LEINS/VASQUEZ
AVIATION...KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...MCLANE/CB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
1045 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 810 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014
MADE A QUICK UPDATE TO THE SHORT TERM POP/WX/QPF FIELDS FOR
SHOWERS OVER DOTSERO...WOLCOTT...AND GILMAN AREA THIS MORNING.
CLOUD TOPS ON IR SATELLITE ARE WARMING...AN INDICATION THAT THESE
SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. AFTERNOON
FORECAST STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A STRAY TSTORM
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SAN JUANS AND POTENTIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL
MTNS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014
MIDLEVEL CLOUDS PERSIST THIS MORNING WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT SHOWING
UP ON RADAR NEAR THE GRAND AND BATTLEMENT MESAS. THE GREATER
RESOLUTION HRRR MODEL IS PICKING UP ON THIS REMARKABLY WELL THOUGH
IT DOES SHOW THE ENHANCEMENT ENDING IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. AS
FAR AS THE BIG PICTURE IS CONCERNED...CLOSED LOW OVER SRN CALIF
AND WRN AZ IS PROGGED TO FILL TODAY AS IT MOVES EAST WHILE
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL WINDS BRING SOME MOISTURE UP FROM THE
SOUTH. MODELS INDICATING ANOTHER DAY OF SHOWERS FOR MAINLY HIGHER
ELEVATIONS SOUTH OF I-70. WHILE NO STORMS FORMED YESTERDAY...CHANCES
LOOK BETTER TODAY AS A BIT MORE INSTABILITY IS PRESENT AND LESS
CLOUDS WILL ALLOW MORE DAYTIME HEATING. WHILE MOST CONVECTION WILL
DIE DOWN SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...A FEW SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE AFTER
THAT. THE REST OF THE CWA WILL SEE MORE SUN THAN YESTERDAY AS WARM
TEMPS CONTINUE.
TONIGHT-MONDAY...IN SPITE OF THE BLOCKING NATURE OF THE UPPER
PATTERN...BOTH THE NW MEXICAN LOW AND THE CO HIGH REMAIN
PROGRESSIVE. THE MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE SOUTH FLOW WILL
PRODUCE A FEW NOCTURNAL SHOWERS TONIGHT OVER THE SOUTHERN MTNS.
THE BREAK DOWN OF THE RIDGE ON MONDAY INCREASES MARGINAL
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MTNS FOR A MENTION OF ISOLATED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE NORTH
OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LOW WEAKENS OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO AS THE PACIFIC TROUGH COMES ONSHORE MONDAY NIGHT THEN LIFTS
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY TUESDAY
NIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE SPREADS INTO THE NORTHERN ZONES WITH 700
SPECIFIC HUMIDITY UNIFORMALY NEAR 6 G/KG. SCATTERED SHOWERS
MONDAY NIGHT INCREASE ON TUESDAY WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
FAVORING THE SOUTH. THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A 60KT JET WORKS
ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.
SNOW LEVELS LOWER TO AROUND 9KFT TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME SNOW
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED IN THE SAN JUAN AND WEST ELK/RAGGEDS MTN
RANGES.
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SFC
COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN NEAR 9K
FEET WITH A FEW MORE INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL DROP SEVERAL DEGREES AS COLD AIR
FILTERS IN WITH BIGGEST CHANGES FELT UP NORTH. TEMPERATURE
CONTRAST NOT EXPECTED TO BE TOO GREAT THE FURTHER SOUTH ONE GOES.
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD BRINGS HIGH PRESSURE. THE
AXIS OF THIS RIDGE WILL GET FORCED ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDWEST AS
AN ENERGETIC JET STREAM TAKES AIM AT THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WE
WILL REMAIN DRY AS THE NWRN STATES SEE A PROLONGED WED PERIOD. SOME
HIGH CLOUDS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS TEMPERATURES START WARMING UP
UNDER SWLY FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1031 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014
MIDLEVEL CIGS CONTINUE TO BE REPORTED LATE THIS MORNING AT ASE
AND EGE AS AN AREA OF ISOLATED SHOWERS SLOWLY DISSIPATES AS IT
MOVES EAST. MORE SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY
GENERALLY OVER HIGHER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70.
CONVECTION WILL BEGIN AROUND 18Z REACHING A MAXIMUM BETWEEN 21Z
AND 00Z. EVEN SO...FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR FOR THE
MOST PART. SOME MTN OBSCURATIONS...ESPECIALLY THE SAN
JUANS...ARE EXPECTED TODAY.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JAM
SHORT TERM...TGR/JOE
LONG TERM...TGR/JOE
AVIATION...TGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
255 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014
.DISCUSSION...
152 PM CDT
TONIGHT...
VISIBLE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON INDICATES A THIN CIRRUS SHIELD OVER
THE REGION...WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT TO THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS
WISCONSIN AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS PUSHING FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SFC RIDGE HAS DRIFTED SOUTHEAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH HAS ALLOWED LLVL FLOW TO TURN
SOUTHWESTERLY. BETWEEN THE NEXT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND THE
DEPARTING RIDGE...WEAK TROUGHING WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES. THIS HAS PRODUCED A BUMP IN THE GRADIENT AND
RESULTED IN BREEZY CONDS THIS AFTN FROM A GOOD MIXED LAYER.
GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SLIGHTLY...BUT THERE REMAINS SOME CONSISTENCY THAT THE
MOISTURE/PRECIP WILL BE DISPLACED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA THRU THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE WARMER THAN
THE PRIOR NGT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW/MID 40S.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
500MB TROUGH AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT EAST OF THE REGION BY
MIDDAY MON...HOWEVER THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE SOME WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE TRYING TO SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE AND MAY PRODUCE SOME
SPRINKLES/LGT RAIN FOR NORTHWEST IN. HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST
FOR NORTHEAST IL...HOWEVER LATE MON EVE A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS COULD
SNEAK INTO THE CHICAGO METRO AREA INTO TUE MORNING. OTHERWISE EXPECT
THE FAR WESTERN FORECAST AREA TO REMAIN DRY. THEN BROAD
ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW ARRIVES AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THRU
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. TEMPS MON WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST IN
THE UPR 50S TO LOW 60S...THEN COOLING INTO THE LOW/MID 50S FOR
TUE/WED/THUR. WITH HIGH PRES POISED TO BE OVERHEAD TUE
NGT-WED-NGT...LOWS IN MANY AREAS COULD EASILY DIP INTO THE MID 30S.
FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE WITH THE RATHER BENIGN PATTERN INTO THE WEEKEND.
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE SOUTHWEST CONUS...BUT IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN BY
SAT/SUN. HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN LATE IN THE WEEK...HOWEVER CURRENT GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE DRY PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO AT LEAST SAT. TEMPS WILL
STEADILY RETURN TO NEAR SEASONAL CONDS WITH HIGHS ARND 60 TO THE LOW
60S BY THE WEEKEND.
BEACHLER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...
* GUSTY SW WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING
KMD
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
WE HAVE SEEN AN EXPANSION OF MVFR CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
THIS AFTERNOON. AS DAYTIME HEATING CONTINUES THESE CLOUDS ARE
BREAKING UP SOME AS THEY MIGRATE TO THE EAST AND THE BACK EDGE OF
THE BROKEN CLOUDS IS NOW REACHING A LINE FROM KRPJ TO KDKB...THOUGH
THERE WILL LIKELY BE AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON OF
MVFR CIGS FOR THE CHICAGOLAND TERMINALS.
CONCERNS SHIFT TO WIND SPEEDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS LOW
PRESSURE SPREADS TO NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AND A MODEST PRESSURE
GRADIENT SETS UP THROUGH NE ILLNOIS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. WIND
SPEEDS AT 2000 FT WILL PUSH 40 KT. NORMALLY WE WOULD SEE WINDS
EASE AT THE SURFACE AT NIGHT BUT THINKING THAT WE WILL CONTINUE TO
SEE WIND GUSTS THROUGH THE EVENING...LIKELY EVEN INCREASING OVER
THIS AFTERNOON. IF THEY DON`T SURFACE THEN THERE MAY BE A PERIOD
OF LOW LEVEL WIND SPEED SHEAR. GRADIENT SLACKENS SOME AFTER
MIDNIGHT THEN A COLD FRONT BRINGS A SHIFT TO NW WIND. NAM IS
SUGGESTING A BUNCH OF LOW CLOUDS IN THE MORNING BUT NOT BUYING OFF
ON THAT AT THE MOMENT. KMD
KMD
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE WIND TRENDS...THOUGH LOW-MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON
WIND GUST POTENTIAL THIS EVENING.
KMD
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR.
IZZI
&&
.MARINE...
209 AM CDT
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION TONIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RAMP UP TODAY IN
ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM WITH A PERIOD OF NEAR GALE FORCE SOUTHWEST
WINDS EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON
TRANSLATING SOUTH TO SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN THIS EVENING. THE
DURATION OF GALE FORCE GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING LOOKS
TO BE SHORT IN MOST LOCATIONS WITH A DURATION PROBABLY ONLY A
COUPLE-FEW HOURS. GIVEN THE SHORT DURATION AND MARGINAL SET-UP HAVE
OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON GALE HEADLINES AND JUST INCLUDE A FEW GUSTS TO
GALES IN THE GLF/GRIDS. A PERIOD OF FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS IS
EXPECTED LATE MONDAY THOUGH TUESDAY AS LOW MOVES MORE SLOWLY
EASTWARD AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. BY MIDWEEK
WINDS/WAVES SHOULD SUBSIDE ON THE LAKE WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS
EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
IZZI
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-
LMZ745...7 PM SUNDAY TO 3 AM MONDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
235 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014
12z KILX upper air sounding showed a very strong subsidence
inversion around 900mb, with a layer of surface-based moisture
trapped beneath it. Due to a lack of adequate mixing with the much
drier airmass aloft, low clouds have persisted/developed across the
area today. 18z/1pm visible satellite imagery showed these clouds
along/east of the I-55 corridor. Surface high pressure has shifted
into the Ohio River Valley, so S/SW winds on its back side are
finally beginning to push the clouds off to the east. Am expecting
the clouds to gradually dissipate/shift eastward over the next
couple of hours, with mostly clear skies across the board by late
afternoon/early evening.
Next upper short-wave to impact the weather across central Illinois
is evident on water vapor imagery over Manitoba. As this feature
drops southeastward, it will push a weak frontal boundary into the
region late tonight into early Monday morning. Forecast soundings
remain quite dry ahead of the front and 12z models have therefore
backed way off on precip development. Lead short-wave will bring
increasing high clouds to central Illinois this evening, then main
wave may bring lower/thicker clouds into the picture overnight.
Given dry soundings and best lift associated with Manitoba wave
skirting by to the N/NE, will only carry slight chance PoPs across
the southeast CWA after midnight. May see a few sprinkles further
north, but measurable precip is not expected.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014
After the short wave and weak frontal boundary, a mid level ridge
and surface high pressure will build into the region with dry
conditions. This will continue into Thur as the CWA remains in a
somewhat anti-cyclonic flow. Models then begin to bring another wave
toward the region Thursday. Models differ on what happens to this
wave as the ridge gets pinched off between the approaching wave and
the large low sitting over the northeastern US. The GFS takes the
energy north while the ECMWF takes it to the north and south. Either
way, central IL will remain dry through the rest of the week. Then
pushing into the weekend, ridging returns with dry weather.
Warmest temps will be tomorrow ahead of the short wave. Then behind
it, slightly cooler temps are expected. Temps will remain below
normal through the rest of the week, and then warm for the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014
MVFR ceilings persist at the central Illinois terminals early this
afternoon as low-level moisture remains trapped below a strong
subsidence inversion. Moisture has been very slowly shifting
eastward over the past couple of hours, and latest HRRR continues
this trend through the afternoon. Based on satellite timing tools,
will scatter the ceilings at KSPI by 19z, then further east to KCMI
by around 21z. Once low clouds clear out, quite a bit of high
cirrus clouds will stream across the area this afternoon/evening
in advance of a trough axis currently extending from Minnesota to
Nebraska. Latest satellite and regional obs indicate only mid/high
clouds associated with this boundary: however, as it drops
southeastward later tonight into Monday morning, most models are
showing a marked increase in 1000-850mb RH. Soundings remain
rather dry, so am expecting little more than a few sprinkles early
Monday morning. However, have included low VFR ceilings at all
sites except KPIA and KSPI as the boundary passes. After that,
winds will veer to the W/NW and skies will clear toward midday.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Auten
AVIATION...Barnes
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1241 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014
.DISCUSSION...
320 AM...FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR SPRINKLES TONIGHT AND THEN LAKE
EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
LOWER CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED ALL BUT FAR EASTERN CWA...AND WILL BE
CLEARING THERE BEFORE SUNRISE. WITH CALM WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA...TEMPS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 30S MOST AREAS AND THE FROST ADVISORY AND ITS TIMING
IS ON TRACK. SOME PATCHY/SHALLOW GROUND FOG HAS DEVELOPED AND NOT
EXPECTING THIS TO BECOME WIDESPREAD.
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM MANITOBA TODAY REACHING THE
NORTHERN LAKES TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SOME BETWEEN
THIS LOW AND THE DEPARTING HIGH WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AT
TIMES...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA. SHOULD BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE TO START BUT INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING. A TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM THIS LOW WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH LIMITED FORCING/MOISTURE. BETTER
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WILL LIKELY REMAIN BOTH NORTH AND
SOUTH OF THE CWA AND REMOVED MENTIONABLE POPS.
AS COLDER AIR SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY NIGHT...LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AND AFFECT MAINLY NORTHWEST INDIANA
BUT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES TUESDAY...
ITS POSSIBLE WINDS MAY TURN ENOUGH TO THE NORTHEAST FOR A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS TO REACH EASTERN COOK COUNTY TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE THE
PRECIP DISSIPATES AS THE HIGH BUILDS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS HIGH WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND QUIET WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS THURSDAY AND
POSSIBLY REACHING THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY BUT MODELS
WEAKEN THIS CONSIDERABLY SHOWING NO PRECIP REACHING THE CWA. CMS
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* BRIEF PERIOD OF BROKEN MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON
* GUSTY SW WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING
KMD
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
WE HAVE SEEN AN EXPANSION OF MVFR CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
THIS AFTERNOON. AS DAYTIME HEATING CONTINUES THESE CLOUDS ARE
BREAKING UP SOME AS THEY MIGRATE TO THE EAST AND THE BACK EDGE OF
THE BROKEN CLOUDS IS NOW REACHING A LINE FROM KRPJ TO KDKB...THOUGH
THERE WILL LIKELY BE AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON OF
MVFR CIGS FOR THE CHICAGOLAND TERMINALS.
CONCERNS SHIFT TO WIND SPEEDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS LOW
PRESSURE SPREADS TO NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AND A MODEST PRESSURE
GRADIENT SETS UP THROUGH NE ILLNOIS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. WIND
SPEEDS AT 2000 FT WILL PUSH 40 KT. NORMALLY WE WOULD SEE WINDS
EASE AT THE SURFACE AT NIGHT BUT THINKING THAT WE WILL CONTINUE TO
SEE WIND GUSTS THROUGH THE EVENING...LIKELY EVEN INCREASING OVER
THIS AFTERNOON. IF THEY DON`T SURFACE THEN THERE MAY BE A PERIOD
OF LOW LEVEL WIND SPEED SHEAR. GRADIENT SLACKENS SOME AFTER
MIDNIGHT THEN A COLD FRONT BRINGS A SHIFT TO NW WIND. NAM IS
SUGGESTING A BUNCH OF LOW CLOUDS IN THE MORNING BUT NOT BUYING OFF
ON THAT AT THE MOMENT. KMD
KMD
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN MVFR OCCURRENCE AND DURATION THIS AFTERNOON.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE WIND TRENDS...THOUGH LOW-MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON
WIND GUST POTENTIAL THIS EVENING.
KMD
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR.
IZZI
&&
.MARINE...
209 AM CDT
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION TONIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RAMP UP TODAY IN
ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM WITH A PERIOD OF NEAR GALE FORCE SOUTHWEST
WINDS EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON
TRANSLATING SOUTH TO SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN THIS EVENING. THE
DURATION OF GALE FORCE GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING LOOKS
TO BE SHORT IN MOST LOCATIONS WITH A DURATION PROBABLY ONLY A
COUPLE-FEW HOURS. GIVEN THE SHORT DURATION AND MARGINAL SET-UP HAVE
OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON GALE HEADLINES AND JUST INCLUDE A FEW GUSTS TO
GALES IN THE GLF/GRIDS. A PERIOD OF FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS IS
EXPECTED LATE MONDAY THOUGH TUESDAY AS LOW MOVES MORE SLOWLY
EASTWARD AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. BY MIDWEEK
WINDS/WAVES SHOULD SUBSIDE ON THE LAKE WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS
EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
IZZI
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-
LMZ745...7 PM SUNDAY TO 3 AM MONDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1234 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 956 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014
Persistent area of clouds that failed to completely clear out of
central Illinois last night remains in place across parts of the
area this morning. 1430z visible satellite imagery shows cloud
cover along/east of a Peoria to Springfield line. These low clouds
are beginning to advance to the E/NE as S/SW winds develop on the
back-side of departing high pressure. As winds increase, the
forward speed of the clouds will as well, so am expecting them to
depart the CWA into Indiana by early afternoon. After that, mostly
sunny skies with only a few high/thin cirrus clouds can be
anticipated for the balance of the day. Due to the sunshine and
southwesterly winds, afternoon high temperatures will be quite a
bit warmer than previous days, with readings reaching the upper
50s and lower 60s. Made some adjustments to hourly sky grids to
better time the expected clearing and tweaked hourly temps.
Forecast update has already been issued.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014
Pesky low clouds continue to linger across the southern 2/3 or so of
the forecast area early this morning. This fact is holding surface
temperatures and dew points up considerably, and mitigating the
frost threat. However, temperatures have fallen to frosty level
across northern portion of the forecast area where skies have
cleared. HRRR and RAP models both suggest clouds should linger for
at least a few more hours across much of the southern CWA, something
that is hard to argue with looking at recent satellite trends. So,
plan to drop Frost Advisory from the southern half of the forecast
area.
Otherwise, quiet weather is on tap for the forecast area today, with
weak short wave ridging drifting overhead, and the associated
surface ridge pushing off to the east. Low level return flow on the
back side of the surface ridge will help push temperatures back into
the 60s today across much of the forecast area. However, the tricky
cloud cover forecast would likely impact how warm we ultimately get.
While most of the synoptic models suggest a mostly sunny day can be
expected, the high resolution HRRR & RAP, suggest at least the first
half of the day may trend closer to mostly cloudy. The high res
models have a better handle on what is occurring at the moment, so
I`m reluctant to disregard their solutions.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014
A fast moving wave currently across North Dakota is expected to drop
into the Great Lakes on Monday. The main low will stay well to our
northeast, with the trailing cold front sweeping through the
forecast area through early Monday afternoon. The threat of showers
with this feature is mainly across the southeast half of the
forecast area late evening through the overnight hours, with the GFS
and ECMWF both in decent agreement, while the NAM persists with a
dry forecast. Soundings do not show much moisture, so any showers
that occur will be fairly light. Have lingered some 30% PoP`s in the
far southeast CWA into early Monday morning, although have limited
this to areas south of I-70.
Otherwise, largely quiet week on tap for the area, as skinny ridge
builds toward the Mississippi Valley mid week with development of a
large cutoff low over the eastern states. As the eastern low slowly
drifts east late week, a deep shortwave across the Plains will
eventually split with a piece of energy forming a secondary cutoff
low over the lower Mississippi Valley. As this occurs, the threat of
rain east of the river will evaporate quickly Thursday evening with
the moisture being drawn toward this southern low.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014
MVFR ceilings persist at the central Illinois terminals early this
afternoon as low-level moisture remains trapped below a strong
subsidence inversion. Moisture has been very slowly shifting
eastward over the past couple of hours, and latest HRRR continues
this trend through the afternoon. Based on satellite timing tools,
will scatter the ceilings at KSPI by 19z, then further east to KCMI
by around 21z. Once low clouds clear out, quite a bit of high
cirrus clouds will stream across the area this afternoon/evening
in advance of a trough axis currently extending from Minnesota to
Nebraska. Latest satellite and regional obs indicate only mid/high
clouds associated with this boundary: however, as it drops
southeastward later tonight into Monday morning, most models are
showing a marked increase in 1000-850mb RH. Soundings remain
rather dry, so am expecting little more than a few sprinkles early
Monday morning. However, have included low VFR ceilings at all
sites except KPIA and KSPI as the boundary passes. After that,
winds will veer to the W/NW and skies will clear toward midday.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Barnes
SHORT TERM...Bak
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Barnes
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1117 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014
.DISCUSSION...
320 AM...FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR SPRINKLES TONIGHT AND THEN LAKE
EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
LOWER CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED ALL BUT FAR EASTERN CWA...AND WILL BE
CLEARING THERE BEFORE SUNRISE. WITH CALM WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA...TEMPS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 30S MOST AREAS AND THE FROST ADVISORY AND ITS TIMING
IS ON TRACK. SOME PATCHY/SHALLOW GROUND FOG HAS DEVELOPED AND NOT
EXPECTING THIS TO BECOME WIDESPREAD.
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM MANITOBA TODAY REACHING THE
NORTHERN LAKES TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SOME BETWEEN
THIS LOW AND THE DEPARTING HIGH WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AT
TIMES...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA. SHOULD BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE TO START BUT INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING. A TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM THIS LOW WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH LIMITED FORCING/MOISTURE. BETTER
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WILL LIKELY REMAIN BOTH NORTH AND
SOUTH OF THE CWA AND REMOVED MENTIONABLE POPS.
AS COLDER AIR SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY NIGHT...LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AND AFFECT MAINLY NORTHWEST INDIANA
BUT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES TUESDAY...
ITS POSSIBLE WINDS MAY TURN ENOUGH TO THE NORTHEAST FOR A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS TO REACH EASTERN COOK COUNTY TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE THE
PRECIP DISSIPATES AS THE HIGH BUILDS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS HIGH WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND QUIET WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS THURSDAY AND
POSSIBLY REACHING THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY BUT MODELS
WEAKEN THIS CONSIDERABLY SHOWING NO PRECIP REACHING THE CWA. CMS
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...
* GUSTY SW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.
* MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON
KMD
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 16Z...
MVFR CIGS EXPANDING TO THE SOUTH AND WEST...BUT THEY HAVE MADE IT
INTO KRPJ AND KDKB. NAM AND RAP MODELS SUGGEST AT LEAST A PERIOD
OF SCATTERED MVFR CLOUDS...POSSIBLY BROKEN THIS AFTERNOON. WILL
TAKE A CLOSE LOOK AT THIS FOR THE 18Z TAF CYCLE.
KMD
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 12Z FOLLOWS...
PATCHY GROUND FOG IN RURAL AREAS WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING AND GRADUALLY INCREASING.
WILL LIKELY BE SOME AT LEAST SPORIDIC GUSTINESS THIS
AFTERNOON...THOUGH INCREASING CLOUD COVER COULD LIMIT THE DURATION
AND INTENSITY OF THE GUSTS SOME. WINDS AROUND 2000FT AGL INCREASE
TO 35-40KT FOR A TIME THIS EVENING...THOUGH EXPECT ENOUGH MIXING
IN THE LOW LEVEL AND STRONG ENOUGH SFC WINDS TO PRECLUDE A BIG
LLWS PROBLEM. FRONT WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST MONDAY
MORNING BUT LITTLE THREAT OF ANY PRECIP EXISTS WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. OTHER THAN THIS MORNING`S RURAL GROUND FOG LOOK FOR VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE.
IZZI
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 12Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE WIND TRENDS
* LOW-MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN MVFR REMAINING SCATTERED AT ORD/MDW
IZZI
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR.
IZZI
&&
.MARINE...
209 AM CDT
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION TONIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RAMP UP TODAY IN
ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM WITH A PERIOD OF NEAR GALE FORCE SOUTHWEST
WINDS EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON
TRANSLATING SOUTH TO SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN THIS EVENING. THE
DURATION OF GALE FORCE GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING LOOKS
TO BE SHORT IN MOST LOCATIONS WITH A DURATION PROBABLY ONLY A
COUPLE-FEW HOURS. GIVEN THE SHORT DURATION AND MARGINAL SET-UP HAVE
OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON GALE HEADLINES AND JUST INCLUDE A FEW GUSTS TO
GALES IN THE GLF/GRIDS. A PERIOD OF FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS IS
EXPECTED LATE MONDAY THOUGH TUESDAY AS LOW MOVES MORE SLOWLY
EASTWARD AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. BY MIDWEEK
WINDS/WAVES SHOULD SUBSIDE ON THE LAKE WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS
EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
IZZI
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-
LMZ745...7 PM SUNDAY TO 3 AM MONDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
655 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014
THE CURRENT DISTURBANCE BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT ACROSS THE E THIRD OF THE CWA THIS EVENING.
LOOKING UPSTREAM...A THICK LAYER OF IFR CEILING LOOKS TO BE IN STORE
FOR MUCH OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW A TREND
SIMILAR TO THE HRRR FOR TIMING...AS IT/S HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE
PRECIP SO FAR. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN REPORTED ACROSS N
ONTARIO AS WELL AS CENTRAL AND N MANITOBA. SNOW WILL NOT BE THE
LIKELY PRECIP TYPE ACROSS UPPER MI THROUGH...IF ANY PRECIPITATION
DOES FALL TONIGHT IT SHOULD BE ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW. THIS IS
DISPUTE THE RETURN OF NNW FLOW BEHIND THE SFC LOW THAT WILL BE
SHIFTING OVERHEAD...MOVING FROM THE W THIRD OF THE CWA BY 00Z MONDAY
TO THE E HALF 06-12Z MONDAY. SFC TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN
THE LOW 40S.
AN ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM HUDSON BAY
THROUGH MANITOBA AND W MN AT DAYBREAK MONDAY WILL SLOWLY INVADE
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS....ALONG WITH A SERIES OF WAVES IN THE
N-NNW FLOW AT 500MB. FAVORABLE UPSLOPE NEAR SFC N-NNW WINDS
REMAINING ON MONDAY...AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW
850MB...AND COOL 850MB TEMPS AROUND -1C...WILL RESULT IN LIGHT
SHOWER/DRIZZLE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE DAY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. LAKE
ENHANCEMENT WILL REMAIN LIMITED DUE TO THE MARGINAL DELTA-T
VALUES...WITH LAKE SUPERIOR STILL AROUND 7C. TEMPS WILL NOT CLIMB
MUCH PAST THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014
AS OPPOSED TO LAST WEEKS MOSTLY GLOOMY WET WEATHER...MOST DAYS THIS
WEEK WILL BE DRY AND WARMER WITH MORE SUNSHINE. IT`S LIKELY MANY
AREAS WON`T SEE ANY PCPN TUE THRU SUN. INITIALLY...AN AMPLIFYING
RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL SEND A SHORTWAVE DIVING SE THRU THE
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND MON. WAVE WILL THEN EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED LOW
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THRU THE MID WEEK PERIOD BEFORE
DRIFTING NE LATE WEEK. MEANWHILE...THE UPSTREAM RIDGE WILL SHIFT E
SO THAT A ZONE OF POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES WILL EXTEND FROM THE SRN
ROCKIES ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES INTO NRN QUEBEC DURING THE MID AND
LATE WEEK PERIOD...SUGGESTING A WARMER/DRIER PERIOD OF WEATHER.
SO...AFTER A COOL START TO THE WEEK...TEMPS WILL TREND ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK. A SHORTWAVE TROF REACHING THE W COAST
MON WILL SHIFT E DURING THE WEEK...BUT WILL WEAKEN SUBSTANTIALLY AS
IT RUNS INTO THE RIDGE/POSITIVE ANOMALIES. SYSTEM MAY STILL GENERATE
A FEW SHRA IN THE UPPER LAKES THU. OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES IN WHETHER THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
REMAIN A WARMER W TO SW OR SHIFT TO THE NW TO BRING A RETURN TO
COLDER CONDITIONS.
BEGINNING MON NIGHT....PRONOUNCED MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE
SHIFTING OUT OVER THE PLAINS AND EXTENDING TO HUDSON BAY. AT THE
SFC...ASSOCIATED HIGH PRES CENTER WILL BE DRIFTING ACROSS NRN
ONTARIO WITH RIDGE EXTENDING SSW ACROSS WRN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY 12Z TUE...BRINGING LARGER SCALE
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. APPROACH OF THE RIDGE WILL RESULT IN LOWERING
INVERSION/DIMINISHING DEEP MOISTURE THRU THE NIGHT. BY 12Z...
INVERSION BASE WILL BE DOWN TO AROUND 3KFT OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. 850MB
TEMPS AROUND -2 TO -3C WILL BE MARGINAL AT BEST FOR LAKE EFFECT PCPN
DURING THE NIGHT AS THERE IS ONLY A NARROW ZONE OF WATER TEMPS NEAR
10C ALONG THE SRN SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. OPEN WATER TEMPS ARE IN
THE 6-8C RANGE. FURTHER LIMITING PCPN POTENTIAL WILL BE DEEP LAYER
QVECTOR DIVERGENCE/SUBSIDENCE. ANY DAYTIME AIDED SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL END DURING MON EVENING...AND AS WINDS VEER NORTHEASTERLY...ONLY
NCNTRL UPPER MI...AIDED BY UPSLOPE...WILL HAVE ANY CHC OF SEEING
SOME LIGHT PCPN LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT. POPS WILL BE KEPT LOW IN
THE SCHC/LOW CHC RANGE. AS THE DEEP MOISTURE PULLS OUT...LEAVING
TEMPS IN THE MOIST LAYER MUCH HIGHER THAN -10C...POTENTIAL FOR ICE
CRYSTALS IN THE CLOUD WILL BE VERY LOW...SO ONLY -SHRA WILL BE
MENTIONED IN FCST.
CLOUDS WILL DECREASE ON TUE...BUT MOST SLOWLY OVER THE CNTRL AS
ADDED MOISTURE FROM LAKE SUPERIOR COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL
HELP TO MAINTAIN A STRATOCU DECK LONGER.
TUE NIGHT SHOULD BE QUITE CHILLY UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM
WIND ASSOCIATED WITH SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER THE AREA. WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER 35-55 PCT OF NORMAL...WENT WITH MIN TEMPS AT OR
BLO THE LOWEST GUIDANCE. 20S SHOULD BE COMMON IN THE INTERIOR.
A WARMER...SUNNY DAY WILL FOLLOW ON WED UNDER MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS. ALL GUIDANCE APPEARS TOO COOL AS MIXING TO AROUND 900MB ON
FCST SOUNDINGS SUPPORTS MAX TEMPS AT LEAST INTO THE LWR 50S E AND
INTO THE UPPER 50S W.
TROF THAT MOVES ONSHORE OVER THE W COAST LATE MON WILL REACH THE
UPPER LAKES THU...BUT IN A SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENED STATE. IN
ADDITION...MODELS SHOW ENERGY IN THE TROF SPLITTING WITH ONE PIECE
SETTLING SE THRU THE PLAINS AND THE OTHER PIECE LIFTING TO HUDSON
BAY. WITH SYSTEM CONTINUING TO WEAKEN...ONLY SCHC POPS WERE INCLUDED
OVER WRN UPPER MI THU.
A WARM DAY FOR LATE OCT SHOULD FOLLOW FOR FRI AS RIBBON OF
MOISTURE/CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH DECAYING TROF SHIFTS E OF THE
AREA...ALLOWING SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY. AT THIS POINT...IT
LOOKS LIKE FRI HAS THE BEST SHOT OF BEING THE WARMEST DAY OF THIS
FCST PERIOD UNDER SW FLOW. MANY LOCATIONS SHOULD REACH AT LEAST 60F
FOR MAX TEMPS ON FRI.
AS ALLUDED TO ABOVE...MODEL DIFFERENCES DEVELOP OVER THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AS THE 00Z GFS/UKMET INDICATE MORE SUBSTANTIAL TROFFING
ARRIVING ALONG THE W COAST FRI...WHICH HELPS MAINTAIN MORE
RIDGING/WARMER CONDITIONS DOWNSTREAM INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE 00Z
ECMWF/CMC HAVE THIS TROF FARTHER OFFSHORE. THIS RESULTS IN A FARTHER
W RIDGE AXIS WHICH THEN ALLOWS A SHORTWAVE TO DIVE MORE TO THE SE
INTO THE GREAT LAKES...BRINGING A SHOT OF COLDER AIR. THE 12Z RUNS
DIDN`T HELP CLARIFY THE ISSUE...BUT IT DOES APPEAR THE ECMWF MAY BE
A BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH COOLING INTO THE UPPER LAKES. IN ANY
EVENT...WITH SHORTWAVE PASSING TO THE N OF THE AREA...PCPN POTENTIAL
LOOKS MINIMAL AT BEST...AND FOR NOW...FCST WILL REFLECT MODEST
COOLING OVER THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS STILL ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 655 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014
VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY WILL SLOWLY FALL TO MVFR AND EVEN POSSIBLY
IFR OVERNIGHT BEHIND LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL BE CROSSING OVERHEAD.
THIS WILL BRING ABOUT FAVORABLE NW FLOW...AND AS WHAT HAS ALREADY
BEEN SEEN UPSTREAM ACROSS MANITOBA AND ONTARIO...PLENTY OF LOW
CLOUDS. THE BEST CHANCE OF IFR CEILINGS WILL BE AT SAW AROUND
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...KEPT THEM AT MVFR FOR NOW GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY. COOL LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014
LOW PRESSURE OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
OVERNIGHT...AND EXIT ACROSS LAKE HURON ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
EASTERN MANITOBA AND W MINNESOTA MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL BUILD ACROSS
ONTARIO/LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER PERIOD OF MAINLY
N GUSTS TO 25KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING OVER
CENTRAL AND E LAKE SUPERIOR. A RIDGE WILL LINGER ACROSS E LAKE
SUPERIOR INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS QUEBEC. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD LINGER INTO
FRIDAY...AS LAKE SUPERIOR GETS STUCK BETWEEN DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA...AND ANOTHER LOW NEARING FROM CENTRAL
CANADA.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...07
MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
420 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014
THE CURRENT DISTURBANCE BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT ACROSS THE E THIRD OF THE CWA THIS EVENING.
LOOKING UPSTREAM...A THICK LAYER OF IFR CEILING LOOKS TO BE IN STORE
FOR MUCH OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW A TREND
SIMILAR TO THE HRRR FOR TIMING...AS IT/S HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE
PRECIP SO FAR. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN REPORTED ACROSS N
ONTARIO AS WELL AS CENTRAL AND N MANITOBA. SNOW WILL NOT BE THE
LIKELY PRECIP TYPE ACROSS UPPER MI THROUGH...IF ANY PRECIPITATION
DOES FALL TONIGHT IT SHOULD BE ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW. THIS IS
DISPUTE THE RETURN OF NNW FLOW BEHIND THE SFC LOW THAT WILL BE
SHIFTING OVERHEAD...MOVING FROM THE W THIRD OF THE CWA BY 00Z MONDAY
TO THE E HALF 06-12Z MONDAY. SFC TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN
THE LOW 40S.
AN ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM HUDSON BAY
THROUGH MANITOBA AND W MN AT DAYBREAK MONDAY WILL SLOWLY INVADE
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS....ALONG WITH A SERIES OF WAVES IN THE
N-NNW FLOW AT 500MB. FAVORABLE UPSLOPE NEAR SFC N-NNW WINDS
REMAINING ON MONDAY...AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW
850MB...AND COOL 850MB TEMPS AROUND -1C...WILL RESULT IN LIGHT
SHOWER/DRIZZLE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE DAY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. LAKE
ENHANCEMENT WILL REMAIN LIMITED DUE TO THE MARGINAL DELTA-T
VALUES...WITH LAKE SUPERIOR STILL AROUND 7C. TEMPS WILL NOT CLIMB
MUCH PAST THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014
AS OPPOSED TO LAST WEEKS MOSTLY GLOOMY WET WEATHER...MOST DAYS THIS
WEEK WILL BE DRY AND WARMER WITH MORE SUNSHINE. IT`S LIKELY MANY
AREAS WON`T SEE ANY PCPN TUE THRU SUN. INITIALLY...AN AMPLIFYING
RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL SEND A SHORTWAVE DIVING SE THRU THE
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND MON. WAVE WILL THEN EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED LOW
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THRU THE MID WEEK PERIOD BEFORE
DRIFTING NE LATE WEEK. MEANWHILE...THE UPSTREAM RIDGE WILL SHIFT E
SO THAT A ZONE OF POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES WILL EXTEND FROM THE SRN
ROCKIES ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES INTO NRN QUEBEC DURING THE MID AND
LATE WEEK PERIOD...SUGGESTING A WARMER/DRIER PERIOD OF WEATHER.
SO...AFTER A COOL START TO THE WEEK...TEMPS WILL TREND ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK. A SHORTWAVE TROF REACHING THE W COAST
MON WILL SHIFT E DURING THE WEEK...BUT WILL WEAKEN SUBSTANTIALLY AS
IT RUNS INTO THE RIDGE/POSITIVE ANOMALIES. SYSTEM MAY STILL GENERATE
A FEW SHRA IN THE UPPER LAKES THU. OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES IN WHETHER THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
REMAIN A WARMER W TO SW OR SHIFT TO THE NW TO BRING A RETURN TO
COLDER CONDITIONS.
BEGINNING MON NIGHT....PRONOUNCED MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE
SHIFTING OUT OVER THE PLAINS AND EXTENDING TO HUDSON BAY. AT THE
SFC...ASSOCIATED HIGH PRES CENTER WILL BE DRIFTING ACROSS NRN
ONTARIO WITH RIDGE EXTENDING SSW ACROSS WRN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY 12Z TUE...BRINGING LARGER SCALE
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. APPROACH OF THE RIDGE WILL RESULT IN LOWERING
INVERSION/DIMINISHING DEEP MOISTURE THRU THE NIGHT. BY 12Z...
INVERSION BASE WILL BE DOWN TO AROUND 3KFT OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. 850MB
TEMPS AROUND -2 TO -3C WILL BE MARGINAL AT BEST FOR LAKE EFFECT PCPN
DURING THE NIGHT AS THERE IS ONLY A NARROW ZONE OF WATER TEMPS NEAR
10C ALONG THE SRN SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. OPEN WATER TEMPS ARE IN
THE 6-8C RANGE. FURTHER LIMITING PCPN POTENTIAL WILL BE DEEP LAYER
QVECTOR DIVERGENCE/SUBSIDENCE. ANY DAYTIME AIDED SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL END DURING MON EVENING...AND AS WINDS VEER NORTHEASTERLY...ONLY
NCNTRL UPPER MI...AIDED BY UPSLOPE...WILL HAVE ANY CHC OF SEEING
SOME LIGHT PCPN LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT. POPS WILL BE KEPT LOW IN
THE SCHC/LOW CHC RANGE. AS THE DEEP MOISTURE PULLS OUT...LEAVING
TEMPS IN THE MOIST LAYER MUCH HIGHER THAN -10C...POTENTIAL FOR ICE
CRYSTALS IN THE CLOUD WILL BE VERY LOW...SO ONLY -SHRA WILL BE
MENTIONED IN FCST.
CLOUDS WILL DECREASE ON TUE...BUT MOST SLOWLY OVER THE CNTRL AS
ADDED MOISTURE FROM LAKE SUPERIOR COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL
HELP TO MAINTAIN A STRATOCU DECK LONGER.
TUE NIGHT SHOULD BE QUITE CHILLY UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM
WIND ASSOCIATED WITH SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER THE AREA. WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER 35-55 PCT OF NORMAL...WENT WITH MIN TEMPS AT OR
BLO THE LOWEST GUIDANCE. 20S SHOULD BE COMMON IN THE INTERIOR.
A WARMER...SUNNY DAY WILL FOLLOW ON WED UNDER MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS. ALL GUIDANCE APPEARS TOO COOL AS MIXING TO AROUND 900MB ON
FCST SOUNDINGS SUPPORTS MAX TEMPS AT LEAST INTO THE LWR 50S E AND
INTO THE UPPER 50S W.
TROF THAT MOVES ONSHORE OVER THE W COAST LATE MON WILL REACH THE
UPPER LAKES THU...BUT IN A SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENED STATE. IN
ADDITION...MODELS SHOW ENERGY IN THE TROF SPLITTING WITH ONE PIECE
SETTLING SE THRU THE PLAINS AND THE OTHER PIECE LIFTING TO HUDSON
BAY. WITH SYSTEM CONTINUING TO WEAKEN...ONLY SCHC POPS WERE INCLUDED
OVER WRN UPPER MI THU.
A WARM DAY FOR LATE OCT SHOULD FOLLOW FOR FRI AS RIBBON OF
MOISTURE/CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH DECAYING TROF SHIFTS E OF THE
AREA...ALLOWING SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY. AT THIS POINT...IT
LOOKS LIKE FRI HAS THE BEST SHOT OF BEING THE WARMEST DAY OF THIS
FCST PERIOD UNDER SW FLOW. MANY LOCATIONS SHOULD REACH AT LEAST 60F
FOR MAX TEMPS ON FRI.
AS ALLUDED TO ABOVE...MODEL DIFFERENCES DEVELOP OVER THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AS THE 00Z GFS/UKMET INDICATE MORE SUBSTANTIAL TROFFING
ARRIVING ALONG THE W COAST FRI...WHICH HELPS MAINTAIN MORE
RIDGING/WARMER CONDITIONS DOWNSTREAM INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE 00Z
ECMWF/CMC HAVE THIS TROF FARTHER OFFSHORE. THIS RESULTS IN A FARTHER
W RIDGE AXIS WHICH THEN ALLOWS A SHORTWAVE TO DIVE MORE TO THE SE
INTO THE GREAT LAKES...BRINGING A SHOT OF COLDER AIR. THE 12Z RUNS
DIDN`T HELP CLARIFY THE ISSUE...BUT IT DOES APPEAR THE ECMWF MAY BE
A BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH COOLING INTO THE UPPER LAKES. IN ANY
EVENT...WITH SHORTWAVE PASSING TO THE N OF THE AREA...PCPN POTENTIAL
LOOKS MINIMAL AT BEST...AND FOR NOW...FCST WILL REFLECT MODEST
COOLING OVER THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS STILL ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 132 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014
VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY WILL SLOWLY FALL TO MVFR AND EVEN POSSIBLY
IFR OVERNIGHT BEHIND LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL BE CROSSING OVERHEAD.
THIS WILL BRING ABOUT FAVORABLE NW FLOW...AND AS WHAT HAS ALREADY
BEEN SEEN UPSTREAM ACROSS MANITOBA AND ONTARIO...PLENTY OF LOW
CLOUDS. THE BEST CHANCE OF IFR CEILINGS WILL BE AT SAW AROUND
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...KEPT THEM AT MVFR FOR NOW GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY. COOL LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014
LOW PRESSURE OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
OVERNIGHT...AND EXIT ACROSS LAKE HURON ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
EASTERN MANITOBA AND W MINNESOTA MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL BUILD ACROSS
ONTARIO/LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER PERIOD OF MAINLY
N GUSTS TO 25KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING OVER
CENTRAL AND E LAKE SUPERIOR. A RIDGE WILL LINGER ACROSS E LAKE
SUPERIOR INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS QUEBEC. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD LINGER INTO
FRIDAY...AS LAKE SUPERIOR GETS STUCK BETWEEN DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA...AND ANOTHER LOW NEARING FROM CENTRAL
CANADA.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
323 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014
THE CURRENT DISTURBANCE BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT ACROSS THE E THIRD OF THE CWA THIS EVENING.
LOOKING UPSTREAM...A THICK LAYER OF IFR CEILING LOOKS TO BE IN STORE
FOR MUCH OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW A TREND
SIMILAR TO THE HRRR FOR TIMING...AS IT/S HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE
PRECIP SO FAR. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN REPORTED ACROSS N
ONTARIO AS WELL AS CENTRAL AND N MANITOBA. SNOW WILL NOT BE THE
LIKELY PRECIP TYPE ACROSS UPPER MI THROUGH...IF ANY PRECIPITATION
DOES FALL TONIGHT IT SHOULD BE ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW. THIS IS
DISPUTE THE RETURN OF NNW FLOW BEHIND THE SFC LOW THAT WILL BE
SHIFTING OVERHEAD...MOVING FROM THE W THIRD OF THE CWA BY 00Z MONDAY
TO THE E HALF 06-12Z MONDAY. SFC TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN
THE LOW 40S.
AN ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM HUDSON BAY
THROUGH MANITOBA AND W MN AT DAYBREAK MONDAY WILL SLOWLY INVADE
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS....ALONG WITH A SERIES OF WAVES IN THE
N-NNW FLOW AT 500MB. FAVORABLE UPSLOPE NEAR SFC N-NNW WINDS
REMAINING ON MONDAY...AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW
850MB...AND COOL 850MB TEMPS AROUND -1C...WILL RESULT IN LIGHT
SHOWER/DRIZZLE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE DAY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. LAKE
ENHANCEMENT WILL REMAIN LIMITED DUE TO THE MARGINAL DELTA-T
VALUES...WITH LAKE SUPERIOR STILL AROUND 7C. TEMPS WILL NOT CLIMB
MUCH PAST THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014
WEAK UPPER RIDGING OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO A
SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND THROUGH
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL BE
LOCATED OVER EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AT 12Z MONDAY AND QUICKLY MOVE
SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA ON MONDAY MORNING. WHILE MUCH OF THE
SYNOPTIC PRECIPITATION WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA ON MONDAY...ABUNDANT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO CLOUDY
CONDITIONS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS (ESPECIALLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTHERN U.P.). THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY
NIGHT UNTIL DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA WITH A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE. WILL FOCUS THE BEST POPS (HIGH END SLIGHTS AND LOW
END CHANCES) ON MONDAY IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS FAVORED BY
NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS. SINCE DELTA-T VALUES WILL ONLY BE 8...ANY
LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL BE LIMITED AND WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS. THE PRECIP WILL FALL AS RAIN ON MONDAY WITH
CLOUD TEMPS ONLY REACHING -2C AND WETBULB0 VALUES BEING WELL ABOVE
1.5KFT. AS WINDS VEER TO THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE
APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM ONTARIO...EXPECT A TRANSITION
TO UPSLOPE LOCATIONS FAVORED BY THAT WIND DIRECTION (PRIMARILY OVER
THE NORTH CENTRAL U.P.). ALTHOUGH WETBULB0 HEIGHTS WOULD SUPPORT
SOME SNOW MIXING IN ON MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE NORTH CENTRAL U.P....THERE WILL BE A LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR ICE
CRYSTALS IN THE CLOUD AND WILL STICK WITH RAIN. SINCE INVERSION
HEIGHTS WILL BE LOWERING DURING MONDAY NIGHT...WILL SLOWLY LOWER THE
POPS AND HAVE THEM DIMINISHED BY SUNRISE ON TUESDAY. STILL EXPECT
THE CLOUDS TO LINGER OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN UPPER MICHIGAN INTO
TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE THE DRYING FROM THE HIGH REALLY TAKES HOLD.
THIS HIGH WILL THEN LEAD TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. AS FOR
TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD...EXPECT THE COOLEST HIGHS ON
MONDAY/TUESDAY (MID 40S TO LOWER 50S) AND THEN WARMING WEDNESDAY TO
NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES.
FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...THE AREA WILL BE ON THE NORTHEAST
EDGE OF AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN/CENTRAL CONUS...LEADING TO
NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE MAIN
PRECIPITATION CHANCE WILL COME LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AS A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE
AREA. SINCE THE PARENT LOW WILL BE LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTH IN
CANADA...EXPECT THE PRECIP AMOUNTS TO BE LIGHT AND WILL KEEP THE
POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY. BEHIND THIS FRONT...A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY AND
LEAD TO DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A WEAK LOW DOES
APPEAR TO NEAR THE REGION ON SATURDAY...BUT MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE
LIMITED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 132 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014
VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY WILL SLOWLY FALL TO MVFR AND EVEN POSSIBLY
IFR OVERNIGHT BEHIND LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL BE CROSSING OVERHEAD.
THIS WILL BRING ABOUT FAVORABLE NW FLOW...AND AS WHAT HAS ALREADY
BEEN SEEN UPSTREAM ACROSS MANITOBA AND ONTARIO...PLENTY OF LOW
CLOUDS. THE BEST CHANCE OF IFR CEILINGS WILL BE AT SAW AROUND
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...KEPT THEM AT MVFR FOR NOW GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY. COOL LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014
LOW PRESSURE OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
OVERNIGHT...AND EXIT ACROSS LAKE HURON ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
EASTERN MANITOBA AND W MINNESOTA MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL BUILD ACROSS
ONTARIO/LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER PERIOD OF MAINLY
N GUSTS TO 25KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING OVER
CENTRAL AND E LAKE SUPERIOR. A RIDGE WILL LINGER ACROSS E LAKE
SUPERIOR INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS QUEBEC. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD LINGER INTO
FRIDAY...AS LAKE SUPERIOR GETS STUCK BETWEEN DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA...AND ANOTHER LOW NEARING FROM CENTRAL
CANADA.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
310 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING A WARM FRONT RUNNING NORTH-SOUTH THROUGH
CENTRAL MN INTO A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW NEAR KINL. THE FRONT THEN
EXTENDS NORTHWEST TO LAKE WINNIPEG AS A STATIONARY FRONT WITH COLD
AIR EAST. THE SURFACE CYCLONE IS MOST CLOSELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
STRONGEST SHORTWAVE TROUGH SOUTH OF LAKE WINNIPEG WHERE
TROPOPAUSE FOLDS DOWN TO NEARLY 750 MB /PER RAP ANALYSIS/...PRETTY
IMPRESSIVE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS WEAKER TROUGH ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH WISCONSIN AT THIS TIME WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURL IN
NORTH-CENTRAL WI 20Z. THE MAIN WATER VAPOR SIGNAL IS VERY DRY AIR
BEHIND THIS FIRST TROUGH...NOT MAKING IT EASY FOR FOR THE STRONGER
LAKE WINNIPEG TROUGH TO CREATE PRECIPITATION ALONE WITHOUT LOW-
LEVEL HELP. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM IN SRN
CANADA IS EAST OF THE FRONT AND CYCLONE IN VERY LOW CLOUD. THIS
ENTIRE SYSTEM WAS SHIFTING SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES.
WILL BE CLEARING THE SPRINKLES IN THE FORECAST EAST IN THE NEXT
HOURS...AND CLEARING SKIES AS THE WI SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES. AIR
MASS IS VERY DRY IN THIS FORCING /PER KMPX AND KGRB 12Z
RAOBS/...BUT SOME STEEPER LAPSE RATES AROUND 7-7.5C/KM IN MID-
LEVELS IS CAUSING 10KFT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. ONLY HIT AND MISS
SPRINKLES HITTING THE GROUND.
WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT IN THIS EVENING AND CYCLONE
WILL PASS THROUGH THRU GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. QG FORCING ALOFT
INCREASES OVERNIGHT WITH THE LAKE WINNIPEG SHORTWAVE TROUGH...BUT
THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL DEEPER LIFT REMAINS CLOSER TO THE SURFACE
CYCLONE TRACK - MORE FOR THE NRN GREAT LAKES. AIR MASS IN PLACE
WITH THE FORCING COMING OVER THE FORECAST AREA SUGGESTS NO
WEATHER.
COLD AIR PUSH DIVES INTO WISCONSIN AND GREAT LAKES POST-LOW ON
MONDAY..BRINGING LOWER OVERCAST WITH IT. THE FRONT WILL LIE UP
THROUGH WESTERN WISCONSIN WITH LOWER CLOUDS AND SOME VERY LOW CAPE
EAST OF THE FRONT ACROSS WI. THERE MAY BE SOME SPRINKLES AROUND
NRN-ERN WI MONDAY...HAVE NOT ADD THOSE TO THE FORECAST HOWEVER.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014
MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...RIDGE BUILDING WILL DOMINATE THIS PERIOD
WITH CLEARING SKIES MONDAY NIGHT. SOME RIVER VALLEY FOG IS
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT SOME SUGGESTION OF WINDS AT THE
TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER COULD BE LIMITING. WILL ADD PATCHY RIVER
VALLEY FOG TO FORECAST FOR NOW.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
PREDICTABILITY TAKES A NOTICEABLE DROP AFTER WEDNESDAY AS SEEN IN
THE SPREAD OF DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE. IN THE LONG WAVE
PATTERN...COMPLEX READJUSTMENT IS OCCURRING IN THIS PERIOD WITH A
A DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND CENTRAL RIDGING.
WILL CONTINUE TO USE A BLENDED DETERMINISTIC FORECAST FOR RAIN
CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS IT APPEARS THE
CONSENSUS CONTINUES FOR A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE AND
SOME WEAK FORCING. SMALL RAIN CHANCES IN THE 30 PERCENT RANGE FOR
NOW ON WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY ARE CONTINUED UNTIL MORE CONFIDENCE
CAN BE BUILT IN THE SIGNAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014
A WARM FRONT WAS PUSHING EAST THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. PRETTY GOOD AMOUNT OF MID-LEVEL/ALTOSTRATUS CLOUDINESS
ACROSS THE AREA WITH BASES IN THE 12-15KFT RANGE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WARM AIR ADVECTION. THIS CLOUD IS EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST OF THE
KRST/KLSE TAF SITES BY 23Z WITH SKIES BECOMING CLEAR. BREEZY
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE WARM FRONT EXPECTED TO TAPER WITH
SUNSET/LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...SHIFTING THE WINDS
TO THE NORTHWEST. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND 10 KT
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MODELS THEN INDICATING MAINLY VFR
STRATOCUMULUS ROTATING SOUTHWARD INTO THE KRST/KLSE TAF SITES BY
12Z...BECOMING BROKEN AT KLSE BY 15Z.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BAUMGARDT
LONG TERM...BAUMGARDT
AVIATION...BOYNE