Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 10/18/14

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ALBANY NY

 734 AM EDT THU OCT 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS OUR
REGION THROUGH TODAY. THIS FRONT WILL PROVIDE A SOAKING RAINFALL FOR
THE ENTIRE REGION...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. IT WILL TURN SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID
BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
ON SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY MUCH COOLER WEATHER FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 644 AM EDT...WIDESPREAD RAIN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING...AS GAPS IN THE RADAR ARE FILLING IN. LOCAL HI
RES MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR AND LOCAL WRF CONTINUE TO INDICATE
BANDS OF RAIN WILL TRACK FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OF THE REGION THIS
MORNING. EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS ARE APPARENT IN THE RADAR
IMAGERY...WHICH WILL ENHANCE RAINFALL RATES.

A WARM CONVEYOR-BELT OF MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN IS EVIDENT
IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...AS STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT IS
TRANSPORTING MOISTURE POLEWARD AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A
SPRAWLING CLOSED UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. AT THE
SURFACE...AN OCCLUDED BOUNDARY POSITIONED OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS WILL GRADUALLY PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE THE LOW LEVEL FOCUS FOR THE RAINFALL...WITH AN
IMPINGING LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET BRINGING SEVERAL BANDS OF MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING...PUSHING EASTWARD INTO
NE NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON.

SO THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE. RAINFALL RATES COULD
EXCEED ONE HALF INCH PER HOUR AT TIMES...BUT FFG VALUES ARE VERY
HIGH /AROUND 2.5 TO 3 INCHES IN 3 HOURS/ AND ARE NOT LIKELY BE
EXCEEDED. DUE TO DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS MINIMAL IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME MINOR URBAN FLOODING
ESPECIALLY WHERE FALLEN LEAVES CLOG STORM DRAINS. REFER TO HYDRO
SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.

A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN NOTED SOUTH OF NYC EARLY THIS
MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS. WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...ALTHOUGH THE INSTABILITY WILL
BE MAINLY ELEVATED WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER LIMITING SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY /5 PERCENT OR LESS/ FOR SOME
OF THE CONVECTION SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY TO PRODUCE STRONG WIND
GUSTS AS THE 40-50 KT LOW LEVEL JET MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
HOWEVER...IT IS HIGHLY QUESTIONABLE THAT THESE WINDS WILL BE ABLE TO
MIX DOWN. SO WHILE A ROGUE STRONG WIND GUST CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...WIDESPREAD STRONG WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED WITH THE CONVECTION.

AS THE OCCLUDED BOUNDARY PROGRESSES EASTWARD AND THE UPPER LOW
STARTS TO TRACK NORTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION...THE
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT INTO INTERIOR AND COASTAL
NEW ENGLAND BY THIS EVENING. AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF ALBANY
WILL SEE THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT END LATER THIS MORNING...WITH HEAVY
RAIN FOR AREAS TO THE NORTH AND EAST TAPERING OFF TO SHOWERS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD TODAY WITH HUMID CONDITIONS ALSO
PERSISTING IN THE MOIST AIR MASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE OCCLUDED BOUNDARY WILL PUSH EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND AND THIS
EVENING...AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACKS NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHEAST
CANADA. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL
STILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...LEAVING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS ESPECIALLY NORTH OF CAPITAL DISTRICT. SHOWERS WILL TEND TO
TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT AS WEAK SURFACE RIDGING OCCURS WITH THE FLOW
ALOFT STARTING TO BECOME MORE ZONAL. WHILE IT WILL BE COOLER THAN
RECENT NIGHTS...LOW TEMPS WILL STILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT TEMP CHANGE IN THE AIR MASS. IT WILL BE NOTICEABLE LESS
HUMID THOUGH.

FRIDAY WILL FEATURE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION...AS WE
WILL BE IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
STARTS TO DIG ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHEAST CANADA.
THERE COULD BE A FEW LIGHT UPSLOPE SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...BUT MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE RAIN-FREE. TEMPS WILL
STILL BE QUITE MILD WITH DEEPER MIXING EXPECTED. HIGHS COULD TOP 70
FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD INTO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS
OUT AREA WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS FAR WESTERN ZONES BY
SUNRISE. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SOMEWHAT MOISTURE-STARVED BUT WILL
HAVE GOOD DYNAMICS TO WORK WITH. MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...WITH LIKELY POPS CONFINED TO THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT TEMPS SHOULD WARM WELL INTO THE 60S
FROM GENERALLY THE HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE LONGWAVE PATTERN
AND HAVE IT AMPLIFYING AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK WITH A RIDGING
BUILDING OVER ROCKIES AND PLAINS AND SHORT WAVE ENERGY MAINTAINING
AND DEEPENING THE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THE GUIDANCE
INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE REGION BY MID
WEEK...HOWEVER THERE ARE DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODELS ON ITS
EVOLUTION. WHAT ALL THIS MEANS IS A COOL PATTERN FOR THE REGION.

THE REGION WILL BE UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD AIR ADVECTION SUNDAY
AS AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. WE ARE LOOKING AT
COOL DAY WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND BRISK
WESTERLY WINDS MAKING IT FEEL CHILLIER.

THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL BRIEFLY BECOME ZONAL
BETWEEN SHORT WAVE TROUGHS AS WE START THE NEW WORK WEEK. WHILE
AT THE SURFACE SOME RIDGING WILL BUILD IN BUT SHOULD QUICKLY SHIFT
OFFSHORE. A SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA WILL
RETURN THE TROUGH TO THE REGION WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO FORM OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WOULD CAUSE THE SURFACE
LOW TO TRACK TO OUR SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TO MID ATLANTIC
REGION. WITH THE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF
THIS SYSTEM HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LARGE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. ITS ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD IN ADVANCE
OF BOUNDARY AND LOW AND INCREASE IN INTENSITY THIS MORNING AS A LOW
LEVEL JET MOVES INTO THE REGION. CAN NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBLE FOR A
THUNDERSTORM...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDED
MENTION IN TAFS. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE OCCLUDED BOUNDARY THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DECREASES.

OVERALL EXPECTED MVFR CONDITIONS WITH POSSIBLE BRIEF IFR IN
HEAVIER SHOWERS AHEAD AND WITH THE BOUNDARY. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...HOWEVER CONDITIONS MAY LOWER TOWARD DAYBREAK IN SOME
AREAS DUE TO PATCHY GROUND FOG FORMATION.

EAST-SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. HAVE LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN TAFS AS THE LOW LEVEL JET MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION THIS MORNING. SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
IN THE EVENING AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SAT-SAT NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUN: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUN NIGHT-MON: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS OUR
REGION THROUGH TODAY. THIS FRONT WILL PROVIDE A SOAKING RAINFALL FOR
THE ENTIRE REGION...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. IT WILL TURN SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID
BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
ON SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY MUCH COOLER WEATHER FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF ONLY 65 TO 80
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND 90 TO 100 PERCENT. MINIMUM RH VALUES FORECAST TO DROP TO
BETWEEN 45 TO 65 PERCENT ON FRIDAY.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25
MPH. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AROUND 5 MPH TONIGHT...SHIFTING TO
THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A SOAKING RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY AS SEVERAL BANDS OF
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MOVE THROUGH. MOST AREAS SHOULD
RECEIVE AROUND 1-2 INCHES OF RAINFALL...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
GENERALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CATSKILLS AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
HOWEVER...RAINFALL WILL VARY SPATIALLY...AS LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE PERSISTENT CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS OCCUR.

PONDING OF WATER IS LIKELY WHERE FALLEN LEAVES CLOG STORM DRAINS.
MINOR URBAN FLOODING IS POSSIBLE DUE TO RAPID RUNOFF.
OTHERWISE...DUE TO ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS PRODUCING UNUSUALLY LOW
WATER LEVELS...RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. SOME WITHIN BANK
RISES ARE EXPECTED. THE LATEST METEOROLOGICAL MODEL ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS /MMEFS/ CONTINUE TO INDICATE RIVER LEVELS IN OUR HSA WILL
REMAIN BELOW CAUTION STAGE THROUGH THE EVENT.

THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL PUSH EAST OF THE REGION BY TONIGHT...WITH
JUST SOME LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO FRIDAY. ANY ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL WILL BE LIGHT AND WILL NOT HAVE ANY FURTHER IMPACT ON
RIVERS.

ALSO THE LATEST METEOROLOGICAL MODEL ENSEMBLE FORECASTS /MMEFS/
INDICATE RIVER LEVELS IN OUR HSA WILL REMAIN BELOW CAUTION STAGE
THROUGH THE EVENT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
TEMPERATURE RECORDS WERE SET...

ALBANY...
THE LOW TEMPERATURE WAS ONLY 70 DEGREES FOR OCTOBER 15TH. THIS
BREAKS THE OLD RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR THE DATE OF 66
DEGREES SET BACK IN 1954.

IN ADDITION...THE 70 DEGREE MINIMUM ALSO TIES FOR THE HIGHEST
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR THE MONTH OF OCTOBER WHICH OCCURRED  BACK ON
OCTOBER 5 IN 1926.

NOTE: DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874.

A RECORD EVENT REPORT WAS ISSUED.


POUGHKEEPSIE...
THE LOW TEMPERATURE WAS ONLY 69 DEGREES FOR OCTOBER 15TH. THIS
BREAKS THE OLD RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR THE DATE OF 65
DEGREES SET BACK IN 1954.

IN ADDITION...THE 69 DEGREE MINIMUM ALSO TIES FOR THE HIGHEST
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR THE MONTH OF OCTOBER WHICH OCCURRED  BACK ON
OCTOBER 7 IN 2005.

NOTE...DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949...HOWEVER DATA IS MISSING
FROM JANUARY 1993 TO JULY 2000.

A RECORD EVENT REPORT WAS ISSUED.


GLENS FALLS...
THE HIGH TEMPERATURE WAS 78 DEGREES FOR OCTOBER 15TH. THIS BREAKS
THE RECORD FOR THE DATE OF 77 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1956.

NOTE...DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949.

A RECORD EVENT REPORT WAS ISSUED.

THIS WAS THE SECOND RECORD HIGH FOR GLENS FALLS...ON OCTOBER 14TH
THE HIGH WAS 78 DEGREES WHICH BROKE THE OLD RECORD OF 76 DEGREES SET
BACK IN 1956. A RECORD EVENT REPORT WAS ISSUED.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA/KL
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...JPV
CLIMATE...







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ALBANY NY

 644 AM EDT THU OCT 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS OUR
REGION THROUGH TODAY. THIS FRONT WILL PROVIDE A SOAKING RAINFALL FOR
THE ENTIRE REGION...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. IT WILL TURN SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID
BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
ON SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY MUCH COOLER WEATHER FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 644 AM EDT...WIDESPREAD RAIN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING...AS GAPS IN THE RADAR ARE FILLING IN. LOCAL HI
RES MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR AND LOCAL WRF CONTINUE TO INDICATE
BANDS OF RAIN WILL TRACK FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OF THE REGION THIS
MORNING. EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS ARE APPARENT IN THE RADAR
IMAGERY...WHICH WILL ENHANCE RAINFALL RATES.

A WARM CONVEYOR-BELT OF MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN IS EVIDENT
IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...AS STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT IS
TRANSPORTING MOISTURE POLEWARD AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A
SPRAWLING CLOSED UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. AT THE
SURFACE...AN OCCLUDED BOUNDARY POSITIONED OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS WILL GRADUALLY PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE THE LOW LEVEL FOCUS FOR THE RAINFALL...WITH AN
IMPINGING LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET BRINGING SEVERAL BANDS OF MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING...PUSHING EASTWARD INTO
NE NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON.

SO THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE. RAINFALL RATES COULD
EXCEED ONE HALF INCH PER HOUR AT TIMES...BUT FFG VALUES ARE VERY
HIGH /AROUND 2.5 TO 3 INCHES IN 3 HOURS/ AND ARE NOT LIKELY BE
EXCEEDED. DUE TO DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS MINIMAL IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME MINOR URBAN FLOODING
ESPECIALLY WHERE FALLEN LEAVES CLOG STORM DRAINS. REFER TO HYDRO
SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.

A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN NOTED SOUTH OF NYC EARLY THIS
MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS. WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...ALTHOUGH THE INSTABILITY WILL
BE MAINLY ELEVATED WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER LIMITING SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY /5 PERCENT OR LESS/ FOR SOME
OF THE CONVECTION SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY TO PRODUCE STRONG WIND
GUSTS AS THE 40-50 KT LOW LEVEL JET MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
HOWEVER...IT IS HIGHLY QUESTIONABLE THAT THESE WINDS WILL BE ABLE TO
MIX DOWN. SO WHILE A ROGUE STRONG WIND GUST CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...WIDESPREAD STRONG WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED WITH THE CONVECTION.

AS THE OCCLUDED BOUNDARY PROGRESSES EASTWARD AND THE UPPER LOW
STARTS TO TRACK NORTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION...THE
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT INTO INTERIOR AND COASTAL
NEW ENGLAND BY THIS EVENING. AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF ALBANY
WILL SEE THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT END LATER THIS MORNING...WITH HEAVY
RAIN FOR AREAS TO THE NORTH AND EAST TAPERING OFF TO SHOWERS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD TODAY WITH HUMID CONDITIONS ALSO
PERSISTING IN THE MOIST AIR MASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE OCCLUDED BOUNDARY WILL PUSH EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND AND THIS
EVENING...AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACKS NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHEAST
CANADA. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL
STILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...LEAVING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS ESPECIALLY NORTH OF CAPITAL DISTRICT. SHOWERS WILL TEND TO
TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT AS WEAK SURFACE RIDGING OCCURS WITH THE FLOW
ALOFT STARTING TO BECOME MORE ZONAL. WHILE IT WILL BE COOLER THAN
RECENT NIGHTS...LOW TEMPS WILL STILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT TEMP CHANGE IN THE AIR MASS. IT WILL BE NOTICEABLE LESS
HUMID THOUGH.

FRIDAY WILL FEATURE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION...AS WE
WILL BE IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
STARTS TO DIG ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHEAST CANADA.
THERE COULD BE A FEW LIGHT UPSLOPE SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...BUT MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE RAIN-FREE. TEMPS WILL
STILL BE QUITE MILD WITH DEEPER MIXING EXPECTED. HIGHS COULD TOP 70
FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD INTO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS
OUT AREA WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS FAR WESTERN ZONES BY
SUNRISE. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SOMEWHAT MOISTURE-STARVED BUT WILL
HAVE GOOD DYNAMICS TO WORK WITH. MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...WITH LIKELY POPS CONFINED TO THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT TEMPS SHOULD WARM WELL INTO THE 60S
FROM GENERALLY THE HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE LONGWAVE PATTERN
AND HAVE IT AMPLIFYING AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK WITH A RIDGING
BUILDING OVER ROCKIES AND PLAINS AND SHORT WAVE ENERGY MAINTAINING
AND DEEPENING THE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THE GUIDANCE
INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE REGION BY MID
WEEK...HOWEVER THERE ARE DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODELS ON ITS
EVOLUTION. WHAT ALL THIS MEANS IS A COOL PATTERN FOR THE REGION.

THE REGION WILL BE UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD AIR ADVECTION SUNDAY
AS AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. WE ARE LOOKING AT
COOL DAY WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND BRISK
WESTERLY WINDS MAKING IT FEEL CHILLIER.

THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL BRIEFLY BECOME ZONAL
BETWEEN SHORT WAVE TROUGHS AS WE START THE NEW WORK WEEK. WHILE
AT THE SURFACE SOME RIDGING WILL BUILD IN BUT SHOULD QUICKLY SHIFT
OFFSHORE. A SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA WILL
RETURN THE TROUGH TO THE REGION WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO FORM OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WOULD CAUSE THE SURFACE
LOW TO TRACK TO OUR SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TO MID ATLANTIC
REGION. WITH THE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF
THIS SYSTEM HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LARGE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. ITS ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD IN ADVANCE
OF BOUNDARY AND LOW AND INCREASE IN INTENSITY THIS MORNING AS A LOW
LEVEL JET MOVES INTO THE REGION. CAN NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBLE FOR A
THUNDERSTORM...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDED
MENTION IN TAFS. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE OCCLUDED BOUNDARY THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DECREASES.

OVERALL EXPECTED MVFR CONDITIONS WITH IFR IN HEAVIER SHOWERS AHEAD
OF THE BOUNDARY. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. CEILINGS MAY IMPROVE TO VFR FOR A PERIOD IN THE
EVENING HOWEVER SOME FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.

EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. HAVE LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR IN TAFS AS THE LOW LEVEL JET MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING. SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST IN THE EVENING
AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SAT-SAT NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUN: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUN NIGHT-MON: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS OUR
REGION THROUGH TODAY. THIS FRONT WILL PROVIDE A SOAKING RAINFALL FOR
THE ENTIRE REGION...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. IT WILL TURN SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID
BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
ON SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY MUCH COOLER WEATHER FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF ONLY 65 TO 80
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND 90 TO 100 PERCENT. MINIMUM RH VALUES FORECAST TO DROP TO
BETWEEN 45 TO 65 PERCENT ON FRIDAY.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25
MPH. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AROUND 5 MPH TONIGHT...SHIFTING TO
THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A SOAKING RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY AS SEVERAL BANDS OF
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MOVE THROUGH. MOST AREAS SHOULD
RECEIVE AROUND 1-2 INCHES OF RAINFALL...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
GENERALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CATSKILLS AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
HOWEVER...RAINFALL WILL VARY SPATIALLY...AS LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE PERSISTENT CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS OCCUR.

PONDING OF WATER IS LIKELY WHERE FALLEN LEAVES CLOG STORM DRAINS.
MINOR URBAN FLOODING IS POSSIBLE DUE TO RAPID RUNOFF.
OTHERWISE...DUE TO ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS PRODUCING UNUSUALLY LOW
WATER LEVELS...RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. SOME WITHIN BANK
RISES ARE EXPECTED. THE LATEST METEOROLOGICAL MODEL ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS /MMEFS/ CONTINUE TO INDICATE RIVER LEVELS IN OUR HSA WILL
REMAIN BELOW CAUTION STAGE THROUGH THE EVENT.

THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL PUSH EAST OF THE REGION BY TONIGHT...WITH
JUST SOME LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO FRIDAY. ANY ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL WILL BE LIGHT AND WILL NOT HAVE ANY FURTHER IMPACT ON
RIVERS.

ALSO THE LATEST METEOROLOGICAL MODEL ENSEMBLE FORECASTS /MMEFS/
INDICATE RIVER LEVELS IN OUR HSA WILL REMAIN BELOW CAUTION STAGE
THROUGH THE EVENT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
TEMPERATURE RECORDS WERE SET...

ALBANY...
THE LOW TEMPERATURE WAS ONLY 70 DEGREES FOR OCTOBER 15TH. THIS
BREAKS THE OLD RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR THE DATE OF 66
DEGREES SET BACK IN 1954.

IN ADDITION...THE 70 DEGREE MINIMUM ALSO TIES FOR THE HIGHEST
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR THE MONTH OF OCTOBER WHICH OCCURRED  BACK ON
OCTOBER 5 IN 1926.

NOTE: DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874.

A RECORD EVENT REPORT WAS ISSUED.


POUGHKEEPSIE...
THE LOW TEMPERATURE WAS ONLY 69 DEGREES FOR OCTOBER 15TH. THIS
BREAKS THE OLD RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR THE DATE OF 65
DEGREES SET BACK IN 1954.

IN ADDITION...THE 69 DEGREE MINIMUM ALSO TIES FOR THE HIGHEST
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR THE MONTH OF OCTOBER WHICH OCCURRED  BACK ON
OCTOBER 7 IN 2005.

NOTE...DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949...HOWEVER DATA IS MISSING
FROM JANUARY 1993 TO JULY 2000.

A RECORD EVENT REPORT WAS ISSUED.


GLENS FALLS...
THE HIGH TEMPERATURE WAS 78 DEGREES FOR OCTOBER 15TH. THIS BREAKS
THE RECORD FOR THE DATE OF 77 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1956.

NOTE...DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949.

A RECORD EVENT REPORT WAS ISSUED.

THIS WAS THE SECOND RECORD HIGH FOR GLENS FALLS...ON OCTOBER 14TH
THE HIGH WAS 78 DEGREES WHICH BROKE THE OLD RECORD OF 76 DEGREES SET
BACK IN 1956. A RECORD EVENT REPORT WAS ISSUED.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...JPV
CLIMATE...








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ALBANY NY

 157 AM EDT THU OCT 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION
OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS FRONT WILL PROVIDE SHOWERS FOR
EVERYONE...SOME AREA POSSIBLY RECEIVING A THUNDERSTORM WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. IT WILL TURN SLIGHTLY COOLER
BEHIND THIS FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHOWERS LATER ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY MUCH
COOLER WEATHER FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1256 AM EDT...AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN THAT WERE IMPACTING
HERKIMER COUNTY EARLIER THIS EVENING HAVE DISSIPATED. BANDS OF
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED HEAVY RAINFALL HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
CATSKILLS...HUDSON VALLEY AND TACONICS AND ARE RAPIDLY PROGRESSING
NORTHWARD. BASED ON UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS AROUND ONE TO TWO THIRDS
OF AN INCH OF RAIN WILL OCCUR WITH THIS BATCH OF SHOWERS. BASED ON
REGION RADARS IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL GET A BRIEF BREAK EARLY THIS
MORNING...BEFORE ADDITIONAL RE-DEVELOPMENT OCCURS AS THE LOW LEVEL
JET APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH AND THE OCCLUDED BOUNDARY
APPROACHES...WHICH WILL FOCUS ADDITIONAL RAINBANDS WITH EMBEDDED
HEAVY RAINFALL. HI RES MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR AND LOCAL WRF
INDICATING COVERAGE WILL INCREASE IN THE 11Z-13Z TIME FRAME ACROSS
OUR AREA. NO CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING HAS BEEN OBSERVED ALTHOUGH
A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT SO WILL MENTION
ISOLATED THUNDER.

THE TEMPERATURE HAS NOT DROPPED BELOW 70 FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS AT
ALBANY...WHICH RESULTS IN A NEW RECORD WARM MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
FOR THE DATE. THE OLD RECORD WARM MINIMUM OF 66 DEGREES WAS SET
IN 1954. IT COULD ALSO TIE FOR WARMEST OVERNIGHT LOW FOR ANY
OCTOBER...THAT WAS SET BACK ON THE MORNING OF OCTOBER 5TH
1929...ALSO 70 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES DURING THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT OVER EASTERN NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY PUSH
THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST WHICH WILL PROVIDE THE LOW LEVEL FOCUS FOR
SEVERAL BANDS OF RAIN TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. MOST SOURCES OF MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THESE LARGE
SCALE FEATURES BUT AS USUAL THERE ARE VARIATIONS IN QPF AMOUNTS WITH
THE 12Z CMC OFFERING THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS...AND THE OVERALL THE 12Z
GFS THE LOWEST (AT LEAST IN THE HUDSON VALLEY).

USUALLY WITH A SSE FLOW UP TO 40-50KTS (AT THE H850 LEVEL) THE
CATSKILLS RECEIVE THE MOST RAINFALL...AND THE TACONICS/BERKSHIRES
AND SOUTHERN GREENS A CLOSE SECOND. PWATS ARE FORECAST TO REACH
AROUND 1.5 INCHES EARLY ON THURSDAY.

WE FIGURE ON A GENERAL 1-2+ INCHES OF RAINFALL WITH THIS
SYSTEM...BUT THERE COULD LOCALLY MORE (MAYBE UP TO 3 INCHES) SHOULD
ANY THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.

THE RAIN COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES...AS ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS ARE
FORECAST TO BE +3 TO +4 STDEV ALONG WITH A 850 MB SOUTHERLY WIND
ANOMALIES OF +2 TO +3 STDEV TRANSPORTING ATLANTIC MOISTURE POLEWARD
INTO THE REGION. THE LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SOMEWHAT AS
IT TRAVERSES OUR REGION...BUT STILL STRONG ENOUGH TO RESULT IN HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL.

DUE TO ANTECEDENT DRY GROUND CONDITIONS...OTHER THAN PONDING OF
WATER DUE TO CLOGGED STORM DRAINS...WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE
NOT ANTICIPATED. PLEASE REFER TO HYDRO SECTION FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES FOR SOME EMBEDDED
CONVECTION/THUNDER...ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY AS TEMPS ALOFT START TO
DECREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LOW MOVING CLOSER. THIS WILL TEND
TO STEEPEN MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ENOUGH FOR ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO
DEVELOP. HAVE CONTINUED TO MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING...INCREASING TO CHANCE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
EMBEDDED DOWNPOURS WILL BE LIKELY WITH ANY ENHANCED CONVECTION.

THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST OF OUR REGION TO
INTERIOR AND COASTAL NEW ENGLAND BY LATE THURSDAY. SOME LEFTOVER
LIGHT SHOWERS WILL STILL BE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF THE NIGHT AND FOR AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION
AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH. SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH OF ALBANY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY...AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL DESPITE THE
RAINFALL...AS WE WILL BE IN THE WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS UNTIL THE
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN ON FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY DUE TO DEEPER
MIXING AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...BUT HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE
NOTICEABLY LOWER.

HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE 70-75 HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD...60S FURTHER
WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE 50S THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGHS
FRIDAY WILL BE AROUND 70 IN THE VALLEYS...60S HIGHER TERRAIN. FRIDAY
NIGHT LOWS WILL BE AROUND 50. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE 60-65 IN THE
VALLEYS...50S HIGHER TERRAIN...CLOSER TO NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A NE STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE TRANSLATING ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CONUS SAT NT-SUN...WITH ANOTHER ONE POTENTIALLY IMPACTING
THE REGION FOR TUE NT AND BEYOND. OVERALL...EXPECT BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD...WITH PRECIP NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK/EVOLUTION OF ANY POTENTIAL CLOSED
LOW FOR WED...WHICH IF THE 12Z/15 ECMWF PROVES CORRECT...COULD
RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL PRECIP.

SOME SPECIFICS...

SAT NT-SUN NT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/COLD POOL WILL BE TRANSLATING
ACROSS THE REGION. OVERALL MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...BUT THE
DEVELOPING LAKE/AIR DIFFERENTIAL IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE MAY
TRIGGER SOME LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SHOWERS...ESP ON SUNDAY. WITH
COOLING 850-700 MB TEMPS INTO THE -5C TO -10C RANGE...IT APPEARS
THAT SOME OF THESE SHOWERS MAY CHANGE TO SNOW...OR MIX WITH
SNOW/GRAUPEL ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...WITH PERHAPS A BIT OF WET SNOW/GRAUPEL EVEN OCCURRING
IN ANY TALLER SHOWER ELEMENTS IN LOWER ELEVATIONS. MOST OF THESE
SHOWERS SHOULD BE FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND POINTS N AND W...AS
WELL AS ACROSS SOUTHERN VT. IT WILL BECOME QUITE BLUSTERY DURING
SUNDAY...WITH MAX TEMPS ONLY REACHING THE LOWER/MID 50S IN VALLEY
AREAS S AND E OF ALBANY...AND 40S TO THE N AND W...WITH HIGHER
TERRAIN ONLY REACHING THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER/MID 40S. SAT NT/SUN AM
SHOULD FALL INTO THE 30S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND LOWER/MID 40S
ACROSS VALLEY AREAS. FOR SUN NT/MON AM...TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
30S IN MOST AREAS...WITH 20S ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS
AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CATSKILLS AND SOUTHERN VT/NW MA. ANY
REMAINING ZONES WHERE THE GROWING SEASON REMAINS IN TACT MAY HAVE A
FROST/FREEZE AND END TO THE GROWING SEASON FOR SUN NT/MON AM.

MON-WED...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SHOULD BUILD IN FOR MON-MON
NT...BEFORE ANOTHER POTENT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM DIGS ACROSS
SOUTHERN/EASTERN CANADA. 12Z/ECMWF IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS
FEATURE...WITH SOME SIGNALS ALSO DEPICTED IN THE MEAN 500 MB PATTERN
IN THE 12Z/GEFS. WILL INDICATE SOME SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR
TUE-WED...ALTHOUGH AGAIN...SHOULD THE TREND OF THE ECMWF AND GEFS
PROVE CORRECT...A MUCH MORE SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION EVENT COULD
UNFOLD ACROSS THE REGION...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE IN THE FORM OF WET
SNOW ACROSS AT LEAST HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...WITH MAINLY 40S ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN...AND LOWER/MID 50S IN VALLEYS FOR MAX TEMPS...AND OVERNIGHT
MINS MAINLY IN THE 30S IN VALLEYS AND 20S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
AGAIN...SHOULD THE TREND IN ECMWF/GEFS PROVE CORRECT...MUCH COOLER
MAX TEMPS COULD OCCUR FOR TUE-WED...WITH 40S IN VALLEYS AND 30S FOR
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WHILE OVERNIGHT MINS REMAIN A BIT WARMER.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LARGE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. ITS ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
STREAM NORTHWARD IN ADVANCE OF BOUNDARY AND LOW. HOWEVER AS THE
LOW LEVEL JET MOVES INTO THE REGION TOWARD SUNRISE THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL PICK UP IN INTENSITY JUST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AS
IT PUSHES THROUGH. CAN NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY FOR A
THUNDERSTORM...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDED
MENTION IN TAFS. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE OCCLUDED BOUNDARY THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DECREASES RAPIDLY.

OVERALL EXPECTING MVFR CONDITIONS WITH IFR IN HEAVIER SHOWERS
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR FOR A PERIOD IN
THE EVENING HOWEVER SOME FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.

EAST TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. HAVE
ADDED LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN TAFS AS THE LOW LEVEL JET MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION. SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST IN THE
EVENING AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA ESPECIALLY IN THE PM.
SAT NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUN: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. ISOLATED SHRA.
SUN NIGHT-MON: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS ARE ON THE WAY...TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ALL AREAS LOOK TO
RECEIVE A QUARTER INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL...SOME AREA MAYBE UP TO
TWO INCHES (MAINLY THE SOUTHERN CATSKILLS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY).

A FEW SHOWERS MIGHT LINGER...MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF ALBANY...
THURSDAY NIGHT. MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH SOME SUNSHINE EXPECTED
FRIDAY BUT A STRAY SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

WE WENT AHEAD AND ASSIGNED A WET FLAG TO ALL OF OUR NFDRS TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY.

RH VALUES WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...COMING DOWN TO
THE 50S BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR MOVES BEHIND A COLD FRONT.

WINDS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY WILL BE MAINLY SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 TO 15
MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS. THE WIND WILL BE BECOME MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY 5 TO 15 MPH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LOCALLY AT ALBANY...ONLY 0.60 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN IN THE PAST
MONTH! SOME AREAS HAVE SEEN EVEN A LITTLE LESS.

A SOAKING RAINFALL IS LIKELY TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS SEVERAL BANDS
OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MOVES THROUGH. IT LOOKS AS IF
MOST AREAS SHOULD END UP WITH 1-2+ INCHES OF RAINFALL...HEAVIEST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CATSKILLS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY AND OF COURSE
ANYWHERE WHERE THUNDERSTORMS MIGHT MATERIALIZE.

PONDING OF WATER IS LIKELY WHERE LEAVES CLOG DRAINS. OTHERWISE...DUE
TO THE DRY WEATHER PRODUCING UNUSUALLY LOW WATER LEVELS...FLOODING
IS NOT EXPECTED. SOME RIVERS AND STREAMS MIGHT SEE SIGNIFICANT
WITHIN BANKFULL RISES.

LIGHT SHOWERS MIGHT LINGER ON A SCATTERED BASIS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY BUT THESE WOULD HAVE NO FURTHER IMPACT ON OUR WATERSHEDS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/GJM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/GJM/JPV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV/JPV
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ALBANY NY

 1256 AM EDT THU OCT 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION
OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS FRONT WILL PROVIDE SHOWERS FOR
EVERYONE...SOME AREA POSSIBLY RECEIVING A THUNDERSTORM WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. IT WILL TURN SLIGHTLY COOLER
BEHIND THIS FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHOWERS LATER ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY MUCH
COOLER WEATHER FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1256 AM EDT...AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN THAT WERE IMPACTING
HERKIMER COUNTY EARLIER THIS EVENING HAVE DISSIPATED. BANDS OF
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED HEAVY RAINFALL HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
CATSKILLS...HUDSON VALLEY AND TACONICS AND ARE RAPIDLY PROGRESSING
NORTHWARD. BASED ON UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS AROUND ONE TO TWO THIRDS
OF AN INCH OF RAIN WILL OCCUR WITH THIS BATCH OF SHOWERS. BASED ON
REGION RADARS IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL GET A BRIEF BREAK EARLY THIS
MORNING...BEFORE ADDITIONAL RE-DEVELOPMENT OCCURS AS THE LOW LEVEL
JET APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH AND THE OCCLUDED BOUNDARY
APPROACHES...WHICH WILL FOCUS ADDITIONAL RAINBANDS WITH EMBEDDED
HEAVY RAINFALL. HI RES MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR AND LOCAL WRF
INDICATING COVERAGE WILL INCREASE IN THE 11Z-13Z TIME FRAME ACROSS
OUR AREA. NO CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING HAS BEEN OBSERVED ALTHOUGH
A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT SO WILL MENTION
ISOLATED THUNDER.

THE TEMPERATURE HAS NOT DROPPED BELOW 70 FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS AT
ALBANY...WHICH RESULTS IN A NEW RECORD WARM MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
FOR THE DATE. THE OLD RECORD WARM MINIMUM OF 66 DEGREES WAS SET
IN 1954. IT COULD ALSO TIE FOR WARMEST OVERNIGHT LOW FOR ANY
OCTOBER...THAT WAS SET BACK ON THE MORNING OF OCTOBER 5TH
1929...ALSO 70 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES DURING THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT OVER EASTERN NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY PUSH
THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST WHICH WILL PROVIDE THE LOW LEVEL FOCUS FOR
SEVERAL BANDS OF RAIN TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. MOST SOURCES OF MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THESE LARGE
SCALE FEATURES BUT AS USUAL THERE ARE VARIATIONS IN QPF AMOUNTS WITH
THE 12Z CMC OFFERING THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS...AND THE OVERALL THE 12Z
GFS THE LOWEST (AT LEAST IN THE HUDSON VALLEY).

USUALLY WITH A SSE FLOW UP TO 40-50KTS (AT THE H850 LEVEL) THE
CATSKILLS RECEIVE THE MOST RAINFALL...AND THE TACONICS/BERKSHIRES
AND SOUTHERN GREENS A CLOSE SECOND. PWATS ARE FORECAST TO REACH
AROUND 1.5 INCHES EARLY ON THURSDAY.

WE FIGURE ON A GENERAL 1-2+ INCHES OF RAINFALL WITH THIS
SYSTEM...BUT THERE COULD LOCALLY MORE (MAYBE UP TO 3 INCHES) SHOULD
ANY THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.

THE RAIN COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES...AS ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS ARE
FORECAST TO BE +3 TO +4 STDEV ALONG WITH A 850 MB SOUTHERLY WIND
ANOMALIES OF +2 TO +3 STDEV TRANSPORTING ATLANTIC MOISTURE POLEWARD
INTO THE REGION. THE LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SOMEWHAT AS
IT TRAVERSES OUR REGION...BUT STILL STRONG ENOUGH TO RESULT IN HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL.

DUE TO ANTECEDENT DRY GROUND CONDITIONS...OTHER THAN PONDING OF
WATER DUE TO CLOGGED STORM DRAINS...WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE
NOT ANTICIPATED. PLEASE REFER TO HYDRO SECTION FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES FOR SOME EMBEDDED
CONVECTION/THUNDER...ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY AS TEMPS ALOFT START TO
DECREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LOW MOVING CLOSER. THIS WILL TEND
TO STEEPEN MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ENOUGH FOR ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO
DEVELOP. HAVE CONTINUED TO MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING...INCREASING TO CHANCE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
EMBEDDED DOWNPOURS WILL BE LIKELY WITH ANY ENHANCED CONVECTION.

THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST OF OUR REGION TO
INTERIOR AND COASTAL NEW ENGLAND BY LATE THURSDAY. SOME LEFTOVER
LIGHT SHOWERS WILL STILL BE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF THE NIGHT AND FOR AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION
AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH. SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH OF ALBANY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY...AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL DESPITE THE
RAINFALL...AS WE WILL BE IN THE WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS UNTIL THE
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN ON FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY DUE TO DEEPER
MIXING AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...BUT HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE
NOTICEABLY LOWER.

HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE 70-75 HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD...60S FURTHER
WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE 50S THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGHS
FRIDAY WILL BE AROUND 70 IN THE VALLEYS...60S HIGHER TERRAIN. FRIDAY
NIGHT LOWS WILL BE AROUND 50. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE 60-65 IN THE
VALLEYS...50S HIGHER TERRAIN...CLOSER TO NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A NE STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE TRANSLATING ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CONUS SAT NT-SUN...WITH ANOTHER ONE POTENTIALLY IMPACTING
THE REGION FOR TUE NT AND BEYOND. OVERALL...EXPECT BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD...WITH PRECIP NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK/EVOLUTION OF ANY POTENTIAL CLOSED
LOW FOR WED...WHICH IF THE 12Z/15 ECMWF PROVES CORRECT...COULD
RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL PRECIP.

SOME SPECIFICS...

SAT NT-SUN NT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/COLD POOL WILL BE TRANSLATING
ACROSS THE REGION. OVERALL MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...BUT THE
DEVELOPING LAKE/AIR DIFFERENTIAL IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE MAY
TRIGGER SOME LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SHOWERS...ESP ON SUNDAY. WITH
COOLING 850-700 MB TEMPS INTO THE -5C TO -10C RANGE...IT APPEARS
THAT SOME OF THESE SHOWERS MAY CHANGE TO SNOW...OR MIX WITH
SNOW/GRAUPEL ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...WITH PERHAPS A BIT OF WET SNOW/GRAUPEL EVEN OCCURRING
IN ANY TALLER SHOWER ELEMENTS IN LOWER ELEVATIONS. MOST OF THESE
SHOWERS SHOULD BE FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND POINTS N AND W...AS
WELL AS ACROSS SOUTHERN VT. IT WILL BECOME QUITE BLUSTERY DURING
SUNDAY...WITH MAX TEMPS ONLY REACHING THE LOWER/MID 50S IN VALLEY
AREAS S AND E OF ALBANY...AND 40S TO THE N AND W...WITH HIGHER
TERRAIN ONLY REACHING THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER/MID 40S. SAT NT/SUN AM
SHOULD FALL INTO THE 30S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND LOWER/MID 40S
ACROSS VALLEY AREAS. FOR SUN NT/MON AM...TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
30S IN MOST AREAS...WITH 20S ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS
AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CATSKILLS AND SOUTHERN VT/NW MA. ANY
REMAINING ZONES WHERE THE GROWING SEASON REMAINS IN TACT MAY HAVE A
FROST/FREEZE AND END TO THE GROWING SEASON FOR SUN NT/MON AM.

MON-WED...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SHOULD BUILD IN FOR MON-MON
NT...BEFORE ANOTHER POTENT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM DIGS ACROSS
SOUTHERN/EASTERN CANADA. 12Z/ECMWF IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS
FEATURE...WITH SOME SIGNALS ALSO DEPICTED IN THE MEAN 500 MB PATTERN
IN THE 12Z/GEFS. WILL INDICATE SOME SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR
TUE-WED...ALTHOUGH AGAIN...SHOULD THE TREND OF THE ECMWF AND GEFS
PROVE CORRECT...A MUCH MORE SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION EVENT COULD
UNFOLD ACROSS THE REGION...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE IN THE FORM OF WET
SNOW ACROSS AT LEAST HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...WITH MAINLY 40S ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN...AND LOWER/MID 50S IN VALLEYS FOR MAX TEMPS...AND OVERNIGHT
MINS MAINLY IN THE 30S IN VALLEYS AND 20S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
AGAIN...SHOULD THE TREND IN ECMWF/GEFS PROVE CORRECT...MUCH COOLER
MAX TEMPS COULD OCCUR FOR TUE-WED...WITH 40S IN VALLEYS AND 30S FOR
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WHILE OVERNIGHT MINS REMAIN A BIT WARMER.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...AS A SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATER TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES LATE
THU MORNING OR EARLY THU AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES THROUGH AROUND
MIDNIGHT...WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS CONTINUING INTO LATE THURSDAY
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. AS OF 16/00Z...CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
TAF SITES WAS VFR/MVFR...WHICH SHOULD LOWER TO MVFR/IFR LATER
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD
SLOWLY IMPROVE THURSDAY AFTERNOON TO VFR/OCCASIONAL MVFR.

SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BE 5 TO 10 KTS...WITH SOME GUSTS TO 15 KTS
AT KALB/KPSF...BUT BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY ON THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SHRA MAINLY IN THE EVNG.
FRI: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRI NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT NIGHT-SUN: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS ARE ON THE WAY...TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ALL AREAS LOOK TO
RECEIVE A QUARTER INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL...SOME AREA MAYBE UP TO
TWO INCHES (MAINLY THE SOUTHERN CATSKILLS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY).

A FEW SHOWERS MIGHT LINGER...MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF ALBANY...
THURSDAY NIGHT. MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH SOME SUNSHINE EXPECTED
FRIDAY BUT A STRAY SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

WE WENT AHEAD AND ASSIGNED A WET FLAG TO ALL OF OUR NFDRS TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY.

RH VALUES WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...COMING DOWN TO
THE 50S BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR MOVES BEHIND A COLD FRONT.

WINDS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY WILL BE MAINLY SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 TO 15
MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS. THE WIND WILL BE BECOME MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY 5 TO 15 MPH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LOCALLY AT ALBANY...ONLY 0.60 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN IN THE PAST
MONTH! SOME AREAS HAVE SEEN EVEN A LITTLE LESS.

A SOAKING RAINFALL IS LIKELY TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS SEVERAL BANDS
OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MOVES THROUGH. IT LOOKS AS IF
MOST AREAS SHOULD END UP WITH 1-2+ INCHES OF RAINFALL...HEAVIEST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CATSKILLS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY AND OF COURSE
ANYWHERE WHERE THUNDERSTORMS MIGHT MATERIALIZE.

PONDING OF WATER IS LIKELY WHERE LEAVES CLOG DRAINS. OTHERWISE...DUE
TO THE DRY WEATHER PRODUCING UNUSUALLY LOW WATER LEVELS...FLOODING
IS NOT EXPECTED. SOME RIVERS AND STREAMS MIGHT SEE SIGNIFICANT
WITHIN BANKFULL RISES.

LIGHT SHOWERS MIGHT LINGER ON A SCATTERED BASIS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY BUT THESE WOULD HAVE NO FURTHER IMPACT ON OUR WATERSHEDS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/GJM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/GJM/JPV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV/JPV
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

 242 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
1029 AM CDT

CONTINUED TO SLOW THE CLEARING TREND WITH THE STRATUS DECK
OVERHEAD THIS MORNING. THERE ARE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS NOTED
ON LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY...BUT THOSE QUICKLY FILL BACK IN WHILE
LOW CEILINGS OVER WEST AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS ARE NOT REALLY
MOVING. SO HAVE SLOWED THE CLEARING TREND FOR THESE MORE TOWARDS
THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON TIME FRAME AS THIS WESTERN EDGE ERODES
AND SHIFTS EAST...WITH THE EASTERN AREAS NOT LIKELY OBSERVING
CLEAR SKIES UNTIL EARLY THIS EVENING. REMOVED POPS THIS MORNING
BUT DID MAKE MENTION OF PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE MAINLY FOR THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA...WITH ONGOING DRIZZLE LIKELY PERSISTING
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS WEAK ASCENT CONTINUES WITHIN THE
OBSERVED SHALLOW MOIST LAYER.

RODRIGUEZ

//PREV DISCUSSION...
340 AM CDT

EARLY MORNING GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS OUR OLD UPPER
SPINNING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION OVER WISCONSIN AND ILLINOIS. SHEARED
OUT SHORT WAVE ENERGY/VORTICITY CHANNEL RUNNING NORTH-SOUTH
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE
WITHIN THE MOIST LOW-MID LEVEL ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION... THOUGH THIS LIGHT/SPOTTY PRECIP SHOULD MOVE
OFF TO THE EAST THIS MORNING WITH THE CONTINUED EASTWARD DRIFT OF
THE UPPER TROUGH. CLEARING LINE OVER FAR WESTERN IL/WI EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL ALSO MOVE SLOWLY EAST...WITH LOW CLOUD COVER EXPECTED
TO ERODE OVER NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS DURING THE MORNING AND ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF NORTHERN IL BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH SUBSIDENCE IN
REGION OF RISING HEIGHTS AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE UPPER RIDGE WHICH
MOVES INTO THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. GRADIENT IN CLOUD
COVERAGE WILL MAKE FOR A CONTRAST IN TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CWA
TODAY...WITH WESTERN AREAS WARMING INTO THE MID 60S WITH
CONSIDERABLE SUN WHILE EASTERN AREAS THAT ARE LAST TO CLEAR TOP
OUT AROUND 60.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS QUICKLY TO ANOTHER STRONG SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY
MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THIS MORNING. THIS WAVE IS ALSO
PROGGED CLOSE OFF IN THE MID-LEVELS AS IT TRACKS EAST ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER TODAY...BEFORE DIGGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AND CARVING OUT A LARGE LONG-WAVE
TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA AS THIS SYSTEM COMBINES WITH AND
NEARLY FUJI-WARAS WITH OLD CLOSED LOW TO OUR EAST. SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE DAKOTAS IN RESPONSE TO THIS SECOND WAVE WILL
MOVE TO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH A PACIFIC
COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA VERY EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. THE AIR MASS BEHIND THIS FRONT IS NOT SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER
THAN THE ONE CURRENTLY OVER THE MIDWEST...THUS TEMPS FRIDAY EXPECTED
TO AGAIN BE IN THE LOW-MID 60S WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS NEAR 30 MPH.
THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TOWARD
EVENING...WITH A SECONDARY PUSH OF COOLER AIR AS SURFACE WINDS SHIFT
NORTHWEST FRIDAY EVENING. WHILE A FEW SPRINKLES CANNOT BE RULED OUT
IN COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THIS SECONDARY FRONT FRIDAY EVENING...THE
BEST ORGANIZED FORCING FOR DEEPER LIFT AND MORE ORGANIZED PRECIP
PRODUCTION WILL REMAIN MAINLY NORTH/EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE STRONG SHORT WAVE AND EVOLVING LONG-WAVE TROUGH AXIS ARE OFF TO
THE EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING...THOUGH GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN BRINGING ANOTHER QUICK MOVING LOWER AMPLITUDE SHORT
WAVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY. WHILE THIS MAY KEEP
CLOUD COVER ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...THE
GREATEST THREAT OF SHOWERS AGAIN REMAINS OVER THE LAKE AND ACROSS
AREAS EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE CWA. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE IN
STORE BEHIND FRIDAY EVENINGS SECONDARY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS BACK IN THE LOW-MID 50S SATURDAY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SPREADS INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY TO OUR EAST...SETTING THE STAGE FOR
CLEARING SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND COLD OVERNIGHT TEMPS. CURRENT
INDICATIONS ARE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY DROP TO AROUND THE
FREEZING MARK ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST IL AWAY
FROM THE CHICAGO HEAT ISLAND BY SUNDAY MORNING. A GOOD FROST IS
LIKELY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING CONDITIONS IN SOME SPOTS.
THE SURFACE HIGH THEN MOVES EAST DURING THE DAY AS UPPER FLOW
PATTERN REMAINS VERY PROGRESSIVE...WITH WINDS SHIFTING SOUTH BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT DIGGING SHORT WAVE WHICH IS
PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. ONCE AGAIN DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING AND
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS LIMITED...THOUGH STRONGER FORCING IS A LITTLE
FURTHER SOUTH WITH THIS SYSTEM THAN THOSE EARLIER IN THE WEEKEND.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LAKES BY MONDAY
EVENING WITH THE COLD FRONT CLEARING THE CWA BY MONDAY NIGHT.

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEPICT A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF NORTH AMERICA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
OUR MONDAY SYSTEM CLOSES OFF OVER THE EAST COAST. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS SLOWLY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DURING THIS TIME...
WITH A PERIOD OF QUIET/DRY WEATHER THROUGH MID-WEEK. NORTHEAST-EAST
LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH MAY LIMIT OUR WARMING BENEATH
THE UPPER RIDGE...THOUGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AT LEAST RETURN TO LATE
OCTOBER NORMALS OR A LITTLE BETTER.

RATZER

&&

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...

* IFR/LOWER MVFR CIGS REST OF TODAY...AND CIG TRENDS OVERNIGHT.

BMD

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...

LOW CLOUD COVER...MAINLY IFR...PERSISTS ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND
NORTHWEST INDIANA...HOWEVER A FEW AREAS HAVE STARTED TO SHOW SIGNS
THAT THE DECK IS TRYING TO LIFT TO LOWER END MVFR. THE STRATUS HAS
SLOWLY BEEN ERODING FROM THE WEST AND IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR RFD BY
MID TO LATE THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE
CHICAGO TERMINALS BY SUNSET WHICH MAY RESULT IN CLOUD COVER
LINGERING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GUIDANCE IS MIXED ON WHETHER
IT WILL CLEAR TO VFR OR DROP BACK DOWN TO IFR OVERNIGHT AND
CONFIDENCE IS LOW BUT LEANING TOWARDS THE LATTER SOLUTION. A DRY
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND
SHOULD HELP SCOUR OUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL THEREAFTER ON FRIDAY...AND WNW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY WITH GUSTS INTO THE LOW TO MID 20 KT RANGE
BY AFTERNOON.

BMD

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN LOWER END MVFR OR IFR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
  LOW CONFIDENCE ON CIG TRENDS OVERNIGHT.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS FROM MID MORNING ON FRIDAY.

BMD

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

* FRIDAY NIGHT...DRY/VFR. GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS.
* SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...DRY/VFR.
* MONDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
* TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...DRY/VFR. EASTERLY WINDS.

KJB

&&

.MARINE...
234 PM CDT

WILL MAINTAIN THE GALE WATCH. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND HOISTED A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS AS WINDS WILL BE RAMPING
UP FRIDAY MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH SAT NGT/SUN MORNING.

LOW PRESSURE DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN TO 29.3 INCHES AS IT
NEARS LAKE MICHIGAN...THEN GUIDANCE FURTHER DEEPENS THE LOW TO
AROUND 29.1 INCHES AS IT SHIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN QUEBEC
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN WINDS APPROACHING
30KT IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND LIKELY PRODUCE GALES POSSIBLY
NEARING 40 KTS IN THE OPEN WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
LAKE A LITTLE LONGER SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AND
BRING MUCH LIGHTER WINDS TO THE LAKE. THEN A QUICK MOVING LOW
PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE LAKE SUNDAY NGT-TUE AND COULD
BRING A BRIEF INCREASE TO THE WINDS. THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM
APPEARS TO BE MINIMAL...SO CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTING TO NEED ANY
HEADLINES.

BEACHLER

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...GALE WATCH...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-LMZ567-
     LMZ868...7 PM FRIDAY TO 7 PM SATURDAY.

     GALE WATCH...LMZ080-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-
     LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...7 PM FRIDAY TO 3 PM
     SATURDAY.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO






Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1239 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1038 AM CDT THU OCT 16 2014

Persistent upper low that has brought several days of clouds and
showers to the Midwest is slowly exiting the region this morning,
with latest water vapor imagery showing it located over Ohio.
Cloud cover from this feature still blankets much of central
Illinois: however, skies have cleared along/west of a Galesburg to
Jacksonville line. Clearing is making only very slow eastward
progress, with satellite timing tools suggesting east-central
Illinois will likely remain overcast through the afternoon.
Meanwhile further west, skies will become mostly sunny along/west
of the I-55 corridor. High temperatures will range from around 60
along the Indiana border to the upper 60s in the Illinois River
Valley. Will make some updates to hourly sky/temp grids and send a
zone update out shortly.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT THU OCT 16 2014

Deep upper low over Ohio this morning, keeping cloud cover all the
way back into Illinois under northerly/cyclonic flow.  Back edge to
the clouds pretty distinct this morning to the west, just east of
the Mississippi River Valley.  Weak  ridging moving out of the
Plains, but the cut off low is very slow to move out of the region
until the kicker moves in.  Said wave is over Montana this morning
and slated to move in late tonight, though the upper low will begin
its easterly drift today.  Very slow in going anywhere, the big
question for today is the timing of the back edge/clearing.
850mb-700mb moisture profiles pretty similar btwn GFS and NAM...with
the HRRR also slow to clear today. Most of the CWA remains under
cloudy skies this morning...slowly clearing the western half of the
state by mid day.  As a result, cooler in the east.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT THU OCT 16 2014

With the upper low moving out today and tonight...northwesterly flow
briefly kicks in...with kicker wave diving into the larger scale
trof and spinning around the exiting system. New wave bringing a
weak sfc boundary that is barely a shift of winds. Cold front
expected to pass with little notice on Friday.  However weak, an
increasing pressure gradient at the surface and some higher winds
aloft will result in a breezy day with 20mph winds in the northern
half of the state sustained...gusting 25-30. Ridge builds in for the
weekend and the forecast remains dry with highs in the 50s and a
chilly Sunday morning. Next chance for precip very small and in
response to another wave moving into the Upper Midwest late
Sunday/Monday. In fact, the ECMWF is the only model persistent with
this feature actually pushing any QPF.  The GFS has the wave, but
remains dry this far south.  Weak southerly flow and cloud cover
will make Sunday night a little warmer than Sat night. Better precip
chances will be further to the north, as the wave is running into a
weak ridge over the region.  That being said, silent slight chances
on Sun night/Mon remain the only precip in the forecast. Sfc
ridging and slightly cooler than seasonal norms expected in the
remainder of the 7 day forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2014

IFR/MVFR ceilings persist across the eastern half of the KILX CWA
early this afternoon. 17z visible satellite imagery shows clearing
line from KPIA to KSPI and inching eastward. Based on timing
tools, clearing will reach KBMI/KDEC by 22z and further east to
KCMI by 02z. Winds will be W/SW at less than 10kt this afternoon,
then will back to the S this evening. Trough axis currently across
the eastern Dakotas into eastern Nebraska will push through the
region tonight, accompanied by a few high clouds and a wind shift
back to the W/SW overnight. After that, a cold front dropping
southward out of Canada will pass through Friday morning, turning
the winds to the W/NW. Big question will be whether or not MVFR
ceilings currently evident on satellite imagery behind this
boundary will spread/develop southward to the TAF sites after
FROPA. While NAM is quite aggressive in bringing clouds to at
least the I-74 corridor by 15z, other models hold them further
northwest. At this point, will only mention SCT low clouds between
14z and 18z as the front passes, thinking any BKN ceilings will
hold off until afternoon.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Barnes
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Barnes







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

 1103 AM CDT THU OCT 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
1029 AM CDT

CONTINUED TO SLOW THE CLEARING TREND WITH THE STRATUS DECK
OVERHEAD THIS MORNING. THERE ARE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS NOTED
ON LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY...BUT THOSE QUICKLY FILL BACK IN WHILE
LOW CEILINGS OVER WEST AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS ARE NOT REALLY
MOVING. SO HAVE SLOWED THE CLEARING TREND FOR THESE MORE TOWARDS
THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON TIME FRAME AS THIS WESTERN EDGE ERODES
AND SHIFTS EAST...WITH THE EASTERN AREAS NOT LIKELY OBSERVING
CLEAR SKIES UNTIL EARLY THIS EVENING. REMOVED POPS THIS MORNING
BUT DID MAKE MENTION OF PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE MAINLY FOR THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA...WITH ONGOING DRIZZLE LIKELY PERSISTING
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS WEAK ASCENT CONTINUES WITHIN THE
OBSERVED SHALLOW MOIST LAYER.

RODRIGUEZ

//PREV DISCUSSION...
340 AM CDT

EARLY MORNING GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS OUR OLD UPPER
SPINNING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION OVER WISCONSIN AND ILLINOIS. SHEARED
OUT SHORT WAVE ENERGY/VORTICITY CHANNEL RUNNING NORTH-SOUTH
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE
WITHIN THE MOIST LOW-MID LEVEL ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION... THOUGH THIS LIGHT/SPOTTY PRECIP SHOULD MOVE
OFF TO THE EAST THIS MORNING WITH THE CONTINUED EASTWARD DRIFT OF
THE UPPER TROUGH. CLEARING LINE OVER FAR WESTERN IL/WI EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL ALSO MOVE SLOWLY EAST...WITH LOW CLOUD COVER EXPECTED
TO ERODE OVER NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS DURING THE MORNING AND ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF NORTHERN IL BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH SUBSIDENCE IN
REGION OF RISING HEIGHTS AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE UPPER RIDGE WHICH
MOVES INTO THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. GRADIENT IN CLOUD
COVERAGE WILL MAKE FOR A CONTRAST IN TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CWA
TODAY...WITH WESTERN AREAS WARMING INTO THE MID 60S WITH
CONSIDERABLE SUN WHILE EASTERN AREAS THAT ARE LAST TO CLEAR TOP
OUT AROUND 60.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS QUICKLY TO ANOTHER STRONG SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY
MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THIS MORNING. THIS WAVE IS ALSO
PROGGED CLOSE OFF IN THE MID-LEVELS AS IT TRACKS EAST ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER TODAY...BEFORE DIGGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AND CARVING OUT A LARGE LONG-WAVE
TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA AS THIS SYSTEM COMBINES WITH AND
NEARLY FUJI-WARAS WITH OLD CLOSED LOW TO OUR EAST. SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE DAKOTAS IN RESPONSE TO THIS SECOND WAVE WILL
MOVE TO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH A PACIFIC
COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA VERY EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. THE AIR MASS BEHIND THIS FRONT IS NOT SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER
THAN THE ONE CURRENTLY OVER THE MIDWEST...THUS TEMPS FRIDAY EXPECTED
TO AGAIN BE IN THE LOW-MID 60S WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS NEAR 30 MPH.
THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TOWARD
EVENING...WITH A SECONDARY PUSH OF COOLER AIR AS SURFACE WINDS SHIFT
NORTHWEST FRIDAY EVENING. WHILE A FEW SPRINKLES CANNOT BE RULED OUT
IN COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THIS SECONDARY FRONT FRIDAY EVENING...THE
BEST ORGANIZED FORCING FOR DEEPER LIFT AND MORE ORGANIZED PRECIP
PRODUCTION WILL REMAIN MAINLY NORTH/EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE STRONG SHORT WAVE AND EVOLVING LONG-WAVE TROUGH AXIS ARE OFF TO
THE EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING...THOUGH GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN BRINGING ANOTHER QUICK MOVING LOWER AMPLITUDE SHORT
WAVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY. WHILE THIS MAY KEEP
CLOUD COVER ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...THE
GREATEST THREAT OF SHOWERS AGAIN REMAINS OVER THE LAKE AND ACROSS
AREAS EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE CWA. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE IN
STORE BEHIND FRIDAY EVENINGS SECONDARY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS BACK IN THE LOW-MID 50S SATURDAY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SPREADS INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY TO OUR EAST...SETTING THE STAGE FOR
CLEARING SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND COLD OVERNIGHT TEMPS. CURRENT
INDICATIONS ARE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY DROP TO AROUND THE
FREEZING MARK ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST IL AWAY
FROM THE CHICAGO HEAT ISLAND BY SUNDAY MORNING. A GOOD FROST IS
LIKELY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING CONDITIONS IN SOME SPOTS.
THE SURFACE HIGH THEN MOVES EAST DURING THE DAY AS UPPER FLOW
PATTERN REMAINS VERY PROGRESSIVE...WITH WINDS SHIFTING SOUTH BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT DIGGING SHORT WAVE WHICH IS
PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. ONCE AGAIN DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING AND
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS LIMITED...THOUGH STRONGER FORCING IS A LITTLE
FURTHER SOUTH WITH THIS SYSTEM THAN THOSE EARLIER IN THE WEEKEND.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LAKES BY MONDAY
EVENING WITH THE COLD FRONT CLEARING THE CWA BY MONDAY NIGHT.

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEPICT A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF NORTH AMERICA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
OUR MONDAY SYSTEM CLOSES OFF OVER THE EAST COAST. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS SLOWLY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DURING THIS TIME...
WITH A PERIOD OF QUIET/DRY WEATHER THROUGH MID-WEEK. NORTHEAST-EAST
LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH MAY LIMIT OUR WARMING BENEATH
THE UPPER RIDGE...THOUGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AT LEAST RETURN TO LATE
OCTOBER NORMALS OR A LITTLE BETTER.

RATZER

&&

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...

* IFR/LOW MVFR CIGS VERY SLOWLY IMPROVING THROUGH THE DAY.

KJB/BMD

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 16Z...
MADE MODERATE CHANGES TO THE TIMING OF LIFTING CIGS TODAY TAKING A
MUCH MORE PESSIMISTIC APPROACH CLOSER TO RAP/NAM GUIDANCE. SOME
PATCHY DRIZZLE ACROSS THE AREA MAY OCCASIONALLY IMPACT THE
TERMINALS TODAY TOO.

BMD

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...12Z...

IFR TO LOW END MVFR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE INTO THIS
AFTERNOON AS WESTERLY WINDS TRANSPORT A DRIER AIRMASS OVER THE
AREA LATER TODAY. WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS
SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE SOME STRONG GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
AREA ON FRIDAY.

KJB

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...

* LOW WITH CIG TRENDS TODAY.
* HIGH WITH ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

KJB/BMD

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

* FRIDAY NIGHT...DRY/VFR. GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS.
* SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...DRY/VFR.
* MONDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
* TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...DRY/VFR. EASTERLY WINDS.

KJB

&&

.MARINE...
148 AM CDT

WINDS ACROSS THE LAKE WILL BACK WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY AND REMAIN AROUND
10 KT DURING THE DAY TODAY AS A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OVER THE WESTERN LAKES. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A FAIRLY QUIET
WEATHER DAY OVER THE LAKE TODAY.

THE NEXT WEATHER EVENT OF INCREASING INTEREST IS THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER NORTH DAKOTA. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT
EASTWARD ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BOARDER TODAY AND APPROACH LAKE
SUPERIOR BY LATE TONIGHT. FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO MERGE THIS LOW
WITH ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO BY
FRIDAY...THEN DEEPEN THE LOW TO AROUND 29.1 INCHES AS IT SHIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN QUEBEC LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS WEATHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO RESULT IN INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS UP
IN THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE OVER THE LAKE ON FRIDAY. A STRONG COLD
FRONT LOOKS TO SHIFT OVER THE LAKE LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...LIKELY RESULTING IN A NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHIFT...WITH EVEN
STRONGER SPEEDS. GALE FORCE WINDS OF 35 TO 40 KT APPEAR PROBABLE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE LAKE FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY BEFORE THE
WINDS BEGIN ABATING.

FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OVER THE WESTERN
LAKES REGION BY SUNDAY...RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF LIGHTER WINDS.
HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THE WINDS COULD INCREASE A BIT OVER THE LAKE
AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM SHIFTS
OVER THE WESTERN LAKES REGION. THIS APPEARS TO BE A WEAKER SYSTEM AT
THIS POINT...THUS GALE FORCE WINDS APPEAR UNLIKELY WITH THIS
EVENT.

KJB

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...GALE WATCH...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-LMZ567-
     LMZ868...7 PM FRIDAY TO 7 PM SATURDAY.

     GALE WATCH...LMZ080-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-
     LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...7 PM FRIDAY TO 3 PM
     SATURDAY.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO





Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1038 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1038 AM CDT THU OCT 16 2014

Persistent upper low that has brought several days of clouds and
showers to the Midwest is slowly exiting the region this morning,
with latest water vapor imagery showing it located over Ohio.
Cloud cover from this feature still blankets much of central
Illinois: however, skies have cleared along/west of a Galesburg to
Jacksonville line. Clearing is making only very slow eastward
progress, with satellite timing tools suggesting east-central
Illinois will likely remain overcast through the afternoon.
Meanwhile further west, skies will become mostly sunny along/west
of the I-55 corridor. High temperatures will range from around 60
along the Indiana border to the upper 60s in the Illinois River
Valley. Will make some updates to hourly sky/temp grids and send a
zone update out shortly.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT THU OCT 16 2014

Deep upper low over Ohio this morning, keeping cloud cover all the
way back into Illinois under northerly/cyclonic flow.  Back edge to
the clouds pretty distinct this morning to the west, just east of
the Mississippi River Valley.  Weak  ridging moving out of the
Plains, but the cut off low is very slow to move out of the region
until the kicker moves in.  Said wave is over Montana this morning
and slated to move in late tonight, though the upper low will begin
its easterly drift today.  Very slow in going anywhere, the big
question for today is the timing of the back edge/clearing.
850mb-700mb moisture profiles pretty similar btwn GFS and NAM...with
the HRRR also slow to clear today. Most of the CWA remains under
cloudy skies this morning...slowly clearing the western half of the
state by mid day.  As a result, cooler in the east.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT THU OCT 16 2014

With the upper low moving out today and tonight...northwesterly flow
briefly kicks in...with kicker wave diving into the larger scale
trof and spinning around the exiting system. New wave bringing a
weak sfc boundary that is barely a shift of winds. Cold front
expected to pass with little notice on Friday.  However weak, an
increasing pressure gradient at the surface and some higher winds
aloft will result in a breezy day with 20mph winds in the northern
half of the state sustained...gusting 25-30. Ridge builds in for the
weekend and the forecast remains dry with highs in the 50s and a
chilly Sunday morning. Next chance for precip very small and in
response to another wave moving into the Upper Midwest late
Sunday/Monday. In fact, the ECMWF is the only model persistent with
this feature actually pushing any QPF.  The GFS has the wave, but
remains dry this far south.  Weak southerly flow and cloud cover
will make Sunday night a little warmer than Sat night. Better precip
chances will be further to the north, as the wave is running into a
weak ridge over the region.  That being said, silent slight chances
on Sun night/Mon remain the only precip in the forecast. Sfc
ridging and slightly cooler than seasonal norms expected in the
remainder of the 7 day forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT THU OCT 16 2014

MVFR and IFR, with some patchy VLIFR conditons are expected for
the next several hours before we see conditions slowly improve
from west to east later this morning. Satellite data and surface
obs indicate widespread IFR and MVFR cigs were across our area
with KBMI just recently reporting 1/4sm in fog. The backedge of
the clouds was located from just west of Galesburg to just east of
Winchester with boundary layer winds remaining out of the north,
taking the cloud shield from north to south this morning. So as
long as the winds just off the surface remain northerly, its going
to be tough to get the clouds to shift east and track out of our
area until later this morning. It appears as the surface ridge
axis shifts across the area later this morning, boundary layer
winds will start to become more southwesterly which will help push
the lower clouds east with the clearing taking place first at PIA
and SPI, and then by early afternoon we should see BMI and DEC go
at least broken on the MVFR cloud deck while CMI remains overcast
until 21z or later.

Surface winds will start out from the northwest this morning and
then back more into the west and southwest during the afternoon
over most of the area. Wind speeds will average around 10 kts
today. Southerly winds at 5 to 10 kts expected tonight ahead of a
cold front that is slated to move through the TAF sites Friday
morning. With most areas expected to see a mostly clear sky
tonight, we may see some patchy fog form late but winds may hold
up enough to prevent any widespread development. For now will not
include in this set of TAFs but may need to be addressed in later
forecasts.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Barnes
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Smith






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

 907 AM CDT THU OCT 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
340 AM CDT

EARLY MORNING GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS OUR OLD UPPER
SPINNING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION OVER WISCONSIN AND ILLINOIS. SHEARED
OUT SHORT WAVE ENERGY/VORTICITY CHANNEL RUNNING NORTH-SOUTH
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE
WITHIN THE MOIST LOW-MID LEVEL ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION... THOUGH THIS LIGHT/SPOTTY PRECIP SHOULD MOVE
OFF TO THE EAST THIS MORNING WITH THE CONTINUED EASTWARD DRIFT OF
THE UPPER TROUGH. CLEARING LINE OVER FAR WESTERN IL/WI EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL ALSO MOVE SLOWLY EAST...WITH LOW CLOUD COVER EXPECTED
TO ERODE OVER NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS DURING THE MORNING AND ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF NORTHERN IL BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH SUBSIDENCE IN
REGION OF RISING HEIGHTS AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE UPPER RIDGE WHICH
MOVES INTO THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. GRADIENT IN CLOUD
COVERAGE WILL MAKE FOR A CONTRAST IN TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CWA
TODAY...WITH WESTERN AREAS WARMING INTO THE MID 60S WITH
CONSIDERABLE SUN WHILE EASTERN AREAS THAT ARE LAST TO CLEAR TOP
OUT AROUND 60.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS QUICKLY TO ANOTHER STRONG SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY
MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THIS MORNING. THIS WAVE IS ALSO
PROGGED CLOSE OFF IN THE MID-LEVELS AS IT TRACKS EAST ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER TODAY...BEFORE DIGGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AND CARVING OUT A LARGE LONG-WAVE
TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA AS THIS SYSTEM COMBINES WITH AND
NEARLY FUJI-WARAS WITH OLD CLOSED LOW TO OUR EAST. SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE DAKOTAS IN RESPONSE TO THIS SECOND WAVE WILL
MOVE TO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH A PACIFIC
COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA VERY EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. THE AIR MASS BEHIND THIS FRONT IS NOT SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER
THAN THE ONE CURRENTLY OVER THE MIDWEST...THUS TEMPS FRIDAY EXPECTED
TO AGAIN BE IN THE LOW-MID 60S WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS NEAR 30 MPH.
THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TOWARD
EVENING...WITH A SECONDARY PUSH OF COOLER AIR AS SURFACE WINDS SHIFT
NORTHWEST FRIDAY EVENING. WHILE A FEW SPRINKLES CANNOT BE RULED OUT
IN COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THIS SECONDARY FRONT FRIDAY EVENING...THE
BEST ORGANIZED FORCING FOR DEEPER LIFT AND MORE ORGANIZED PRECIP
PRODUCTION WILL REMAIN MAINLY NORTH/EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE STRONG SHORT WAVE AND EVOLVING LONG-WAVE TROUGH AXIS ARE OFF TO
THE EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING...THOUGH GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN BRINGING ANOTHER QUICK MOVING LOWER AMPLITUDE SHORT
WAVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY. WHILE THIS MAY KEEP
CLOUD COVER ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...THE
GREATEST THREAT OF SHOWERS AGAIN REMAINS OVER THE LAKE AND ACROSS
AREAS EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE CWA. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE IN
STORE BEHIND FRIDAY EVENINGS SECONDARY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS BACK IN THE LOW-MID 50S SATURDAY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SPREADS INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY TO OUR EAST...SETTING THE STAGE FOR
CLEARING SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND COLD OVERNIGHT TEMPS. CURRENT
INDICATIONS ARE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY DROP TO AROUND THE
FREEZING MARK ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST IL AWAY
FROM THE CHICAGO HEAT ISLAND BY SUNDAY MORNING. A GOOD FROST IS
LIKELY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING CONDITIONS IN SOME SPOTS.
THE SURFACE HIGH THEN MOVES EAST DURING THE DAY AS UPPER FLOW
PATTERN REMAINS VERY PROGRESSIVE...WITH WINDS SHIFTING SOUTH BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT DIGGING SHORT WAVE WHICH IS
PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. ONCE AGAIN DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING AND
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS LIMITED...THOUGH STRONGER FORCING IS A LITTLE
FURTHER SOUTH WITH THIS SYSTEM THAN THOSE EARLIER IN THE WEEKEND.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LAKES BY MONDAY
EVENING WITH THE COLD FRONT CLEARING THE CWA BY MONDAY NIGHT.

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEPICT A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF NORTH AMERICA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
OUR MONDAY SYSTEM CLOSES OFF OVER THE EAST COAST. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS SLOWLY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DURING THIS TIME...
WITH A PERIOD OF QUIET/DRY WEATHER THROUGH MID-WEEK. NORTHEAST-EAST
LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH MAY LIMIT OUR WARMING BENEATH
THE UPPER RIDGE...THOUGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AT LEAST RETURN TO LATE
OCTOBER NORMALS OR A LITTLE BETTER.

RATZER

&&

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 14Z...

* IFR/LOW MVFR CIGS VERY SLOWLY IMPROVING THROUGH THE DAY.

KJB/BMD

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...

IFR TO LOW END MVFR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE INTO THIS
AFTERNOON AS WESTERLY WINDS TRANSPORT A DRIER AIRMASS OVER THE
AREA LATER TODAY. WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS
SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE SOME STRONG GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
AREA ON FRIDAY.

KJB

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 14Z...

* MEDIUM WITH CIG TRENDS TODAY.
* HIGH WITH ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

KJB/BMD

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

* FRIDAY NIGHT...DRY/VFR. GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS.
* SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...DRY/VFR.
* MONDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
* TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...DRY/VFR. EASTERLY WINDS.

KJB

&&

.MARINE...
148 AM CDT

WINDS ACROSS THE LAKE WILL BACK WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY AND REMAIN AROUND
10 KT DURING THE DAY TODAY AS A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OVER THE WESTERN LAKES. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A FAIRLY QUIET
WEATHER DAY OVER THE LAKE TODAY.

THE NEXT WEATHER EVENT OF INCREASING INTEREST IS THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER NORTH DAKOTA. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT
EASTWARD ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BOARDER TODAY AND APPROACH LAKE
SUPERIOR BY LATE TONIGHT. FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO MERGE THIS LOW
WITH ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO BY
FRIDAY...THEN DEEPEN THE LOW TO AROUND 29.1 INCHES AS IT SHIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN QUEBEC LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS WEATHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO RESULT IN INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS UP
IN THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE OVER THE LAKE ON FRIDAY. A STRONG COLD
FRONT LOOKS TO SHIFT OVER THE LAKE LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...LIKELY RESULTING IN A NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHIFT...WITH EVEN
STRONGER SPEEDS. GALE FORCE WINDS OF 35 TO 40 KT APPEAR PROBABLE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE LAKE FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY BEFORE THE
WINDS BEGIN ABATING.

FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OVER THE WESTERN
LAKES REGION BY SUNDAY...RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF LIGHTER WINDS.
HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THE WINDS COULD INCREASE A BIT OVER THE LAKE
AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM SHIFTS
OVER THE WESTERN LAKES REGION. THIS APPEARS TO BE A WEAKER SYSTEM AT
THIS POINT...THUS GALE FORCE WINDS APPEAR UNLIKELY WITH THIS
EVENT.

KJB

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...GALE WATCH...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-LMZ567-
     LMZ868...7 PM FRIDAY TO 7 PM SATURDAY.

     GALE WATCH...LMZ080-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-
     LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...7 PM FRIDAY TO 3 PM
     SATURDAY.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO





Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
611 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT THU OCT 16 2014

Deep upper low over Ohio this morning, keeping cloud cover all the
way back into Illinois under northerly/cyclonic flow.  Back edge to
the clouds pretty distinct this morning to the west, just east of
the Mississippi River Valley.  Weak  ridging moving out of the
Plains, but the cut off low is very slow to move out of the region
until the kicker moves in.  Said wave is over Montana this morning
and slated to move in late tonight, though the upper low will begin
its easterly drift today.  Very slow in going anywhere, the big
question for today is the timing of the back edge/clearing.
850mb-700mb moisture profiles pretty similar btwn GFS and NAM...with
the HRRR also slow to clear today. Most of the CWA remains under
cloudy skies this morning...slowly clearing the western half of the
state by mid day.  As a result, cooler in the east.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT THU OCT 16 2014

With the upper low moving out today and tonight...northwesterly flow
briefly kicks in...with kicker wave diving into the larger scale
trof and spinning around the exiting system. New wave bringing a
weak sfc boundary that is barely a shift of winds. Cold front
expected to pass with little notice on Friday.  However weak, an
increasing pressure gradient at the surface and some higher winds
aloft will result in a breezy day with 20mph winds in the northern
half of the state sustained...gusting 25-30. Ridge builds in for the
weekend and the forecast remains dry with highs in the 50s and a
chilly Sunday morning. Next chance for precip very small and in
response to another wave moving into the Upper Midwest late
Sunday/Monday. In fact, the ECMWF is the only model persistent with
this feature actually pushing any QPF.  The GFS has the wave, but
remains dry this far south.  Weak southerly flow and cloud cover
will make Sunday night a little warmer than Sat night. Better precip
chances will be further to the north, as the wave is running into a
weak ridge over the region.  That being said, silent slight chances
on Sun night/Mon remain the only precip in the forecast. Sfc
ridging and slightly cooler than seasonal norms expected in the
remainder of the 7 day forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT THU OCT 16 2014

MVFR and IFR, with some patchy VLIFR conditons are expected for
the next several hours before we see conditions slowly improve
from west to east later this morning. Satellite data and surface
obs indicate widespread IFR and MVFR cigs were across our area
with KBMI just recently reporting 1/4sm in fog. The backedge of
the clouds was located from just west of Galesburg to just east of
Winchester with boundary layer winds remaining out of the north,
taking the cloud shield from north to south this morning. So as
long as the winds just off the surface remain northerly, its going
to be tough to get the clouds to shift east and track out of our
area until later this morning. It appears as the surface ridge
axis shifts across the area later this morning, boundary layer
winds will start to become more southwesterly which will help push
the lower clouds east with the clearing taking place first at PIA
and SPI, and then by early afternoon we should see BMI and DEC go
at least broken on the MVFR cloud deck while CMI remains overcast
until 21z or later.

Surface winds will start out from the northwest this morning and
then back more into the west and southwest during the afternoon
over most of the area. Wind speeds will average around 10 kts
today. Southerly winds at 5 to 10 kts expected tonight ahead of a
cold front that is slated to move through the TAF sites Friday
morning. With most areas expected to see a mostly clear sky
tonight, we may see some patchy fog form late but winds may hold
up enough to prevent any widespread development. For now will not
include in this set of TAFs but may need to be addressed in later
forecasts.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Smith




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

 341 AM CDT THU OCT 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
340 AM CDT

EARLY MORNING GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS OUR OLD UPPER
SPINNING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION OVER WISCONSIN AND ILLINOIS. SHEARED
OUT SHORT WAVE ENERGY/VORTICITY CHANNEL RUNNING NORTH-SOUTH
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE
WITHIN THE MOIST LOW-MID LEVEL ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION... THOUGH THIS LIGHT/SPOTTY PRECIP SHOULD MOVE
OFF TO THE EAST THIS MORNING WITH THE CONTINUED EASTWARD DRIFT OF
THE UPPER TROUGH. CLEARING LINE OVER FAR WESTERN IL/WI EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL ALSO MOVE SLOWLY EAST...WITH LOW CLOUD COVER EXPECTED
TO ERODE OVER NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS DURING THE MORNING AND ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF NORTHERN IL BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH SUBSIDENCE IN
REGION OF RISING HEIGHTS AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE UPPER RIDGE WHICH
MOVES INTO THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. GRADIENT IN CLOUD
COVERAGE WILL MAKE FOR A CONTRAST IN TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CWA
TODAY...WITH WESTERN AREAS WARMING INTO THE MID 60S WITH
CONSIDERABLE SUN WHILE EASTERN AREAS THAT ARE LAST TO CLEAR TOP
OUT AROUND 60.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS QUICKLY TO ANOTHER STRONG SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY
MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THIS MORNING. THIS WAVE IS ALSO
PROGGED CLOSE OFF IN THE MID-LEVELS AS IT TRACKS EAST ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER TODAY...BEFORE DIGGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AND CARVING OUT A LARGE LONG-WAVE
TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA AS THIS SYSTEM COMBINES WITH AND
NEARLY FUJI-WARAS WITH OLD CLOSED LOW TO OUR EAST. SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE DAKOTAS IN RESPONSE TO THIS SECOND WAVE WILL
MOVE TO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH A PACIFIC
COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA VERY EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. THE AIR MASS BEHIND THIS FRONT IS NOT SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER
THAN THE ONE CURRENTLY OVER THE MIDWEST...THUS TEMPS FRIDAY EXPECTED
TO AGAIN BE IN THE LOW-MID 60S WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS NEAR 30 MPH.
THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TOWARD
EVENING...WITH A SECONDARY PUSH OF COOLER AIR AS SURFACE WINDS SHIFT
NORTHWEST FRIDAY EVENING. WHILE A FEW SPRINKLES CANNOT BE RULED OUT
IN COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THIS SECONDARY FRONT FRIDAY EVENING...THE
BEST ORGANIZED FORCING FOR DEEPER LIFT AND MORE ORGANIZED PRECIP
PRODUCTION WILL REMAIN MAINLY NORTH/EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE STRONG SHORT WAVE AND EVOLVING LONG-WAVE TROUGH AXIS ARE OFF TO
THE EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING...THOUGH GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN BRINGING ANOTHER QUICK MOVING LOWER AMPLITUDE SHORT
WAVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY. WHILE THIS MAY KEEP
CLOUD COVER ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...THE
GREATEST THREAT OF SHOWERS AGAIN REMAINS OVER THE LAKE AND ACROSS
AREAS EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE CWA. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE IN
STORE BEHIND FRIDAY EVENINGS SECONDARY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS BACK IN THE LOW-MID 50S SATURDAY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SPREADS INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY TO OUR EAST...SETTING THE STAGE FOR
CLEARING SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND COLD OVERNIGHT TEMPS. CURRENT
INDICATIONS ARE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY DROP TO AROUND THE
FREEZING MARK ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST IL AWAY
FROM THE CHICAGO HEAT ISLAND BY SUNDAY MORNING. A GOOD FROST IS
LIKELY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING CONDITIONS IN SOME SPOTS.
THE SURFACE HIGH THEN MOVES EAST DURING THE DAY AS UPPER FLOW
PATTERN REMAINS VERY PROGRESSIVE...WITH WINDS SHIFTING SOUTH BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT DIGGING SHORT WAVE WHICH IS
PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. ONCE AGAIN DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING AND
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS LIMITED...THOUGH STRONGER FORCING IS A LITTLE
FURTHER SOUTH WITH THIS SYSTEM THAN THOSE EARLIER IN THE WEEKEND.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LAKES BY MONDAY
EVENING WITH THE COLD FRONT CLEARING THE CWA BY MONDAY NIGHT.

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEPICT A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF NORTH AMERICA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
OUR MONDAY SYSTEM CLOSES OFF OVER THE EAST COAST. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS SLOWLY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DURING THIS TIME...
WITH A PERIOD OF QUIET/DRY WEATHER THROUGH MID-WEEK. NORTHEAST-EAST
LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH MAY LIMIT OUR WARMING BENEATH
THE UPPER RIDGE...THOUGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AT LEAST RETURN TO LATE
OCTOBER NORMALS OR A LITTLE BETTER.

RATZER

&&

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 09Z...

* IFR/LIFR CIGS AND LOW VSBY THROUGH MID MORNING...THEN GRADUALLY
  IMPROVING CIGS INTO THE AFTERNOON.

KJB

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...

LOW IFR TO LIFR CIGS...FOG AND SOME OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE CAN BE
EXPECTED FOR REST OF THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BACK WEST-NORTHWESTERLY DURING THE MORNING TODAY...THEN
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER THE REGION. AS THIS OCCURS...CIGS
SHOULD BE ON A GRADUAL IMPROVING TREND THROUGH THE DAY AS THE VERY
LOW CLOUDS GET PUSHED OUT OF THE AREA. WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION BY EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO PRODUCE SOME STRONG GUSTY WESTERLY
WINDS ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY.

KJB

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 09Z...

* MEDIUM WITH CIG TRENDS TODAY.
* HIGH WITH ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

KJB

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...

* FRIDAY...DRY/VFR. STRONG/GUSTY WEST WINDS.
* SATURDAY...DRY/VFR. STRONG/GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.
* SUNDAY...DRY/VFR.
* MONDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
* TUESDAY...DRY/VFR. NE WINDS.

KMD

&&

.MARINE...
148 AM CDT

WINDS ACROSS THE LAKE WILL BACK WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY AND REMAIN AROUND
10 KT DURING THE DAY TODAY AS A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OVER THE WESTERN LAKES. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A FAIRLY QUIET
WEATHER DAY OVER THE LAKE TODAY.

THE NEXT WEATHER EVENT OF INCREASING INTEREST IS THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER NORTH DAKOTA. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT
EASTWARD ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BOARDER TODAY AND APPROACH LAKE
SUPERIOR BY LATE TONIGHT. FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO MERGE THIS LOW
WITH ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO BY
FRIDAY...THEN DEEPEN THE LOW TO AROUND 29.1 INCHES AS IT SHIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN QUEBEC LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS WEATHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO RESULT IN INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS UP
IN THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE OVER THE LAKE ON FRIDAY. A STRONG COLD
FRONT LOOKS TO SHIFT OVER THE LAKE LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...LIKELY RESULTING IN A NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHIFT...WITH EVEN
STRONGER SPEEDS. GALE FORCE WINDS OF 35 TO 40 KT APPEAR PROBABLE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE LAKE FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY BEFORE THE
WINDS BEGIN ABATING.

FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OVER THE WESTERN
LAKES REGION BY SUNDAY...RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF LIGHTER WINDS.
HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THE WINDS COULD INCREASE A BIT OVER THE LAKE
AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM SHIFTS
OVER THE WESTERN LAKES REGION. THIS APPEARS TO BE A WEAKER SYSTEM AT
THIS POINT...THUS GALE FORCE WINDS APPEAR UNLIKELY WITH THIS
EVENT.

KJB

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...GALE WATCH...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-LMZ567-
     LMZ868...7 PM FRIDAY TO 7 PM SATURDAY.

     GALE WATCH...LMZ080-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-
     LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...7 PM FRIDAY TO 3 PM
     SATURDAY.

&&

$$

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Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
336 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT THU OCT 16 2014

Deep upper low over Ohio this morning, keeping cloud cover all the
way back into Illinois under northerly/cyclonic flow.  Back edge to
the clouds pretty distinct this morning to the west, just east of
the Mississippi River Valley.  Weak  ridging moving out of the
Plains, but the cut off low is very slow to move out of the region
until the kicker moves in.  Said wave is over Montana this morning
and slated to move in late tonight, though the upper low will begin
its easterly drift today.  Very slow in going anywhere, the big
question for today is the timing of the back edge/clearing.
850mb-700mb moisture profiles pretty similar btwn GFS and NAM...with
the HRRR also slow to clear today. Most of the CWA remains under
cloudy skies this morning...slowly clearing the western half of the
state by mid day.  As a result, cooler in the east.


&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT THU OCT 16 2014

With the upper low moving out today and tonight...northwesterly flow
briefly kicks in...with kicker wave diving into the larger scale
trof and spinning around the exiting system. New wave bringing a
weak sfc boundary that is barely a shift of winds. Cold front
expected to pass with little notice on Friday.  However weak, an
increasing pressure gradient at the surface and some higher winds
aloft will result in a breezy day with 20mph winds in the northern
half of the state sustained...gusting 25-30. Ridge builds in for the
weekend and the forecast remains dry with highs in the 50s and a
chilly Sunday morning. Next chance for precip very small and in
response to another wave moving into the Upper Midwest late
Sunday/Monday. In fact, the ECMWF is the only model persistent with
this feature actually pushing any QPF.  The GFS has the wave, but
remains dry this far south.  Weak southerly flow and cloud cover
will make Sunday night a little warmer than Sat night. Better precip
chances will be further to the north, as the wave is running into a
weak ridge over the region.  That being said, silent slight chances
on Sun night/Mon remain the only precip in the forecast. Sfc
ridging and slightly cooler than seasonal norms expected in the
remainder of the 7 day forecast.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT WED OCT 15 2014

Primary concern remains with coverage and timing of IFR/MVFR low
clouds over the next 12-18hrs. Light drizzle or sprinkles will
remain possible for the eastern terminals and periodic lifting
mechanisms rotate around the back side of the low. The deep low
pressure is making slow progress to the east, and some breaks in
the low clouds have developed in far western IL, including close
to SPI. Cloud cover should generally remain overcast at all
terminal sites through 15z, with SPI possibly seeing a brief break
in cloud cover between 06z and 10z. BMI has dipped to LIFR cloud
heights and could drop to VLIFR at 100FT for a time before
sunrise. Otherwise, IFR ceilings should prevail the rest of
tonight and to mid-morning on Thursday. After 15z, ceilings should
improve to MVFR across the board, with clearing beginning to
develop from west to east Thursday afternoon. All terminals should
see VFR conditions develop between 19z-23z.

Winds will be NW less than 10kt until after sunrise. Turbulent
mixing tomorrow could push sustained winds into the 10-12kt range,
as winds shift from NW to SW during the afternoon. Winds will
weaken below 10kt with sunset while remaining SW.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Shimon






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

 1000 PM MDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 124 PM MDT FRI OCT 17 2014

EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW NW FLOW ACROSS
THE PLAINS WITH A RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST US. A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH IS MOVING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH HIGH CLOUD
COVER STREAMING NORTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS OUR CWA.

A RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH WEST-
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER OUR CWA AND ANY WEAK LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH REMAINING WELL SOUTH OF THE CWA. THIS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BRING INCREASING HIGH CLOUD COVER AND
INCREASING WINDS. AS THE FLOW SHIFTS TO MORE OF A WESTERLY
DIRECTION ACROSS THE ROCKIES A LEE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DEEPEN
WHICH WILL RESULT IN A TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
OUR CWA AND BREEZY WINDS DURING THE DAY. WE WILL ALSO START TO SE
A SLIGHT MODERATION IN THE AIR MASS OVER THE WESTERN CWA...WHICH
MAY ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPS SATURDAY TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 70S IN
THE WEST...THOUGH MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN SEASONAL WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID-UPPER 60S.

MODELS ARE ADVERTISING TD RECOVERY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AND ELEVATED
INVERSION LIMITING MIXING SO WE SHOULD SEE RH VALUES REMAIN WELL
ABOVE RED FLAG CRITERIA. SO DESPITE WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH RED
FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 PM MDT FRI OCT 17 2014

A LARGE RIDGE WILL BE AMPLIFYING ALOFT OVER THE ROCKIES AND HIGH
PLAINS REGION ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
ALSO IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION DURING THIS
TIME. A SURFACE LEE TROUGH WILL BE DEEPENING OVER THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE
UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS AND A TROUGH OF LOWER
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE SURFACE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WHILE DAYTIME
HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ON
THURSDAY FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT WHEN DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE
COOLER...BUT STILL NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE ECMWF
DEEPENING A CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY FRIDAY INSTEAD
OF MOVING IT EAST AS AN OPEN TROUGH AS THE GFS DOES. EITHER
WAY...IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE AT LEAST WEAK UPPER RIDGING OVER
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT
WEEKEND FOR MORE DRY CONDITIONS AND WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1000 PM MDT FRI OCT 17 2014

KGLD AND KMCK...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. GENERALLY MID AND UPPER
CLOUDS EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS.

SURFACE HIGH CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS
FORECAST TO SLIDE EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENING ALONG THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE. THIS WILL
INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA WITH
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS GUSTING FROM 15Z-23Z AT KGLD...PEAKING
25-30KTS 25KTS IN THE 18Z-22Z TIMEFRAME. OTHERWISE SOUTHEAST WIND
5-10KTS AT TAF ISSUANCE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SO THROUGH 14Z.

FOR KMCK LGT/VRB WIND AT TAF ISSUANCE EXPECTED TO BECOME SOUTHEAST
5-10KTS BY 16Z. SOME GUSTINESS TO 20KTS EXPECTED IN THE 20Z-22Z
TIMEFRAME.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...99



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PADUCAH KY

 848 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 847 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

Made some adjustments to the low temperature forecast to account
for the cloud mass that will continue to stream through the
Evansville Tri State through much of the night. Not sure where the
back/southwest edge of these clouds will be, but where the clouds
persist it will be a milder night with lows well into the 50s.
Figure there will be enough wind in the Tri State area to keep
temperatures from plummeting too quickly when clear patches pass
by. The latest RAP seemed to have a reasonable idea with the
clouds` impact on temperatures, so used it as a guide for this update.

UPDATE Issued at 646 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 00Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 222 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

A dry cold front was crossing our region this afternoon, accompanied
by a gradual wind shift into the northwest. This front will be
followed by cooler temperatures over the weekend. The surface high
pressure center will cross the Lower Ohio Valley on Sunday. Nearly
calm winds and clear skies Sunday morning could allow for the
formation of a little frost. Forecast low temps for Saturday night
will be closer to the cooler mos guidance than the allblend.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 222 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

Main challenge is with Monday`s forecast. After that, high and dry
regardless of model choice. The GFS seems to be an outlier model
for Monday, from much deeper with the h5 trof moving across the
Great Lakes and Midwest, to its higher overall moisture forecast.
The NAM/SREF/GEM and ECMWF are much drier, and also not as intense
with the westward extension of the trof axis. A slight chance PoP
for isolated showers is no big deal to carry, and we are
essentially surrounded by at least 20s percent (with our
neighboring offices). The dynamics, despite marginal moisture are
respectable. Having said that, most areas may not see a thing
(rainfall wise) as the system and its associated frontal boundary
move through.

After that, high pressure will eventually take control, as a mid
level low moves across the east U.S. (favored model per WPC is an
ECMWF/ECMWF mean blend). Will probably see wrap around cu/strato-
cu Tuesday, especially east of the Mississippi. Rest of the week,
not much in the way of cloud cover as deeper layer drying takes
place. Lots of 60s for highs and 40s for lows.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 646 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

The edge of a mass of 4-6kft clouds is currently approaching KEVV.
These clouds will be rotating eastward, while the whole mass
pushes southward. It appears that an occasional ceiling condition
will be possible through the night at KEVV, but it will still be at
VFR levels. Ceilings less likely, but still possible at KOWB
tonight. Would be surprised if these clouds reached KPAH or KCGI
tonight. There should be plenty of wind to prevent fog formation
tonight. The current IFR visibility at KCGI appears to be due to
smoke, and would expect it to not last long. A few northwesterly gusts
will be possible throughout the area again Saturday. Ceilings are
a better bet at KEVV and KOWB, and they may flirt with 3kft at
times, especially in the morning. Elsewhere, just scattered cu are
expected.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
AVIATION...DRS






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PADUCAH KY

 1211 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1211 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2014

Updated aviation section only.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 221 PM CDT WED OCT 15 2014

Water vapor imagery shows deep low centered over west OH covering
much of the Great Lakes south to the southern Appalachians. Energy
aloft continues to move SSE within the backside flow. Light showers
and drizzle persisted across the area mainly east of the
Mississippi. Cross section depiction off the RAP showed moisture
depth up through 500mb over the KEVV tri-state (where IR shows
enhancement -15/-20C), tapering off to a narrow corridor h9/h8
around KPOF and KUNO. Will continue highest chance PoPs east, to
near nothing SEMO through the remainder of the afternoon and evening,
with a slow drop in PoPs from west to east with time, as the low
gradually moves east. Lows tonight, will hedge toward Raw Model
output (a degree or two above MOS), given clouds.

Gradual decreasing clouds from west to east expected Thursday as
the low slowly pulls away. Clouds may hang on and be slow to clear
KEVV tri-state and into the Pennyrile. Even central sections, once
some clearing takes place, may see diurnal development take over.

Despite a frontal passage Friday, quite weather is anticipated
given a very dry air mass Thursday night through Friday night.
Some clouds expected, but that`s it. Temps Thursday through Friday
night will be a blend of existing forecast numbers, the latest MOS
and Raw Model output.


.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 221 PM CDT WED OCT 15 2014

A dry and seasonably cool northwest flow pattern is expected during
the long term. Very little if any precipitation will occur...and
temps will average a few degrees cooler than usual for mid October.

On Saturday...a 500 mb shortwave trough will dig southeast across
the Ohio Valley. Little if any moisture will accompany this feature.
A cool northerly low level flow will become rather gusty ahead of
high pressure over the Plains.

By Sunday...the surface high will be nearly over the Ohio
Valley...ensuring a continuation of mainly clear and cool conditions.

Another 500 mb shortwave will dig southeast across the Ohio Valley
on Monday. There may be a few showers with this system. The 12z gfs
and gefs are drier than previous runs...so pops will be kept only in
the slight chance category.

On Tuesday into Wednesday...a deep layer ridge will become
established over or just west of the Mississippi Valley. A light
northeast wind flow will keep dry and cool conditions in place.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1211 AM CDT THU OCT 16 2014

Blanket of low clouds continues to envelope parts of the region as
cool moist northwest winds persist around low pressure over the
middle Ohio Valley. A slow decrease in cig heights east of the MS
River will occur tonight. Some late night fog is possible at KCGI
when skies are clear, and also KPAH if there are some breaks in the
clouds. The KEVV/KOWB areas will likely experience IFR cigs much of
the night. Diurnal improvement will again start Thursday
morning...with VFR conditions at KCGI/KPAH, and MVFR cigs at
KEVV/KOWB through at least midday.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$











AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CARIBOU ME

 146 PM EDT THU OCT 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER TODAY...THEN CROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
AFTER COORD WITH GYX HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF
PISCATAQUIS AS WELL AS SOUTHERN PENOBSCOT COUNTY BEGINNING LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH NOON FRIDAY. SEE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR MORE
DETAILS.

OTHERWISE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE AFTERNOON FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE THE TIMING OF RAINFALL AND AMOUNTS.

06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTED A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE
CROWN OF MAINE FROM ABOUT CARIBOU BACK THROUGH ALLAGASH. NORTH OF
THIS BOUNDARY TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT,
TEMPERATURES WERE RUNNING IN THE 60S. LATEST RADAR SHOWED A BATCH
OF PRECIP(SHOWERS) MOVING ACROSS THE NWRN TIP OF MAINE W/SOME VERY
LIGHT RETURNS SHOWING UP FROM TO TIME SOUTH OF THIS AREA DOWN INTO
THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS. THE LATEST RAP AND NAM SOUNDINGS
CONFIRMED THIS TO BE DRIZZLE W/A DEEP LLVL MOISTURE PROFILE, LIGHT
ESE WINDS AND A DECENT DRY WEDGE NORTH OF THE MOIST LAYER. DECIDED
TO CARRY DRIZZLE AND FOG INTO THE MID MORNING. THERE WILL BE SOME
SHOWERS AROUND, BUT THEY WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED AND CONFINED TO
THE W AND SW AS FORCING IS WEAK AT BEST AND LIMITED TO THE LLVLS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN TODAY W/READINGS IN THE
60S.

ALL THIS IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
AS AN OCCLUDED FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO TAP INTO A TROPICAL CONNECTION ASSOCIATED W/HRCN
GONZALO. THIS CONNECTION CAN BE SEEN ON THE LATEST SATELLITE WV
IMAGERY AS A STRONG PLUME IS SHOWN PUSHING N ALONG THE ATLC
SEABOARD. HIGH PWATS OF 1.5+ INCHES, A LLVL JET OF 50 KTS AND
STRONG SSE INFLOW THROUGH 700MBS SUPPORTS POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY
RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MDL SOUNDINGS ALSO POINT TO SOME
ELEVATED CAPE ESPECIALLY FROM THE SW INTO EASTERN AREAS BY EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. LIGHTING STRIKES WERE SEEN ALONG THE VIRGINIA-NORTH
CAROLINA COAST AS OF 06Z. DECIDED TO KEEP THE MENTION OF HEAVY
RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST AND ADDED THE MENTION OF TSTMS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS INCLUDING PISCATAQUIS CO. AND
UPSLOPE FAVORED AREAS WILL SEE OVER 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL W/SOME
SPOTS HITTING 3 INCHES IN A 12 HR PERIOD. AFTER COORDINATION
W/GYX, DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH. SOME MINOR
FLOODING COULD OCCUR ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS, BUT RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL BE ABLE TO HANDLE THIS
RAINFALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE OCCLUDED FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON. DEEP MOISTURE...WITH A TROPICAL
CONNECTION...WILL BE DRAWN NORTH ACROSS THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF
THE FRONT. AN AREA OF RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL CROSS THE
REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE OCCLUSION WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
ALSO POSSIBLE. PRECIPITATION WILL THEN TAPER TO SHOWERS IN THE
WAKE OF THE OCCLUSION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. COULD HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS FRIDAY EVENING.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
DOWNEAST. A LOW LEVEL JET WILL ALSO CROSS THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF
THE OCCLUSION. GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF THE
OCCLUSION...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST.
HOWEVER...FORECAST WINDS APPEAR SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN WITH PREVIOUS
MODEL RUNS. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATER
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS FRIDAY/SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION SUNDAY...WHILE AN
UPPER TROF CROSSES THE REGION. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS SUNDAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS DOWNEAST. COULD HAVE A CHANCE
OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
UPPER TROF WILL MOVE NORTHEAST MONDAY. COULD HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF MORNING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS MONDAY.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES NORTH WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DOWNEAST MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. EXPECT
INCREASING CLOUDS TUESDAY...WITH RAIN CHANCES THEN INCREASING
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS SUNDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVEL
TEMPERATURES MONDAY/TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR RIGHT INTO TONIGHT. THERE COULD BE PERIODS OF MVFR
EARLY TODAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERMINALS.

SHORT TERM: IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN IMPROVING TO MVFR/VFR
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS AND LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
COULD BE A CONCERN FRIDAY MORNING WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
ALSO POSSIBLE. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. OCCASIONAL MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION LATER SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS. GENERALLY
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY...THOUGH OCCASIONAL
MVFR CONDITIONS COULD LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS EARLY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: DECIDED TO GO W/A SCA STARTING LATER TONIGHT AS WINDS
AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE OCCLUSION. THE NAM
AND GFS BOTH SUPPORT A LLVL JET OF 50 KTS MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS
LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. SOME THIS STRONG WIND COULD MIX
DOWN TO THE SURFACE. DECIDED TO GO W/GUSTS 25+ KTS AFTER MIDNIGHT
W/SEAS BUILDING TO 7 FT BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE
WATERS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED
IN RAIN AND FOG FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH
NOON FRIDAY FOR ALL OF PISCATAQUIS AS WELL AS SOUTHERN PENOBSCOT
COUNTIES. WE ARE EXPECTING ANYWHERE FROM 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL
FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EAST FACING HIGHER TERRAIN OF PISCATQUIS
COUNTY. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING ACROSS THE WATCH AREA.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
     MORNING FOR MEZ004-010-015-031.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...DUDA/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...DUDA/HEWITT/NORCROSS
MARINE...DUDA/HEWITT/NORCROSS
HYDROLOGY...DUDA






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CARIBOU ME

 942 AM EDT THU OCT 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER TODAY...THEN CROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
BASED ON LATEST RAP/HRRR MDLS AND RADAR TRENDS HAVE SLOWED THE
PROGRESSION OF THE STEADIER RAIN INTO THE FA UNTIL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. VISIBILITIES DOWNEAST ARE BEGINNING
TO IMPROVE SO WILL ONLY CARRY PATCHY FOG THE REST OF THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE THE TIMING OF RAINFALL AND AMOUNTS.

06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTED A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE
CROWN OF MAINE FROM ABOUT CARIBOU BACK THROUGH ALLAGASH. NORTH OF
THIS BOUNDARY TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT,
TEMPERATURES WERE RUNNING IN THE 60S. LATEST RADAR SHOWED A BATCH
OF PRECIP(SHOWERS) MOVING ACROSS THE NWRN TIP OF MAINE W/SOME VERY
LIGHT RETURNS SHOWING UP FROM TO TIME SOUTH OF THIS AREA DOWN INTO
THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS. THE LATEST RAP AND NAM SOUNDINGS
CONFIRMED THIS TO BE DRIZZLE W/A DEEP LLVL MOISTURE PROFILE, LIGHT
ESE WINDS AND A DECENT DRY WEDGE NORTH OF THE MOIST LAYER. DECIDED
TO CARRY DRIZZLE AND FOG INTO THE MID MORNING. THERE WILL BE SOME
SHOWERS AROUND, BUT THEY WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED AND CONFINED TO
THE W AND SW AS FORCING IS WEAK AT BEST AND LIMITED TO THE LLVLS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN TODAY W/READINGS IN THE
60S.

ALL THIS IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
AS AN OCCLUDED FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO TAP INTO A TROPICAL CONNECTION ASSOCIATED W/HRCN
GONZALO. THIS CONNECTION CAN BE SEEN ON THE LATEST SATELLITE WV
IMAGERY AS A STRONG PLUME IS SHOWN PUSHING N ALONG THE ATLC
SEABOARD. HIGH PWATS OF 1.5+ INCHES, A LLVL JET OF 50 KTS AND
STRONG SSE INFLOW THROUGH 700MBS SUPPORTS POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY
RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MDL SOUNDINGS ALSO POINT TO SOME
ELEVATED CAPE ESPECIALLY FROM THE SW INTO EASTERN AREAS BY EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. LIGHTING STRIKES WERE SEEN ALONG THE VIRGINIA-NORTH
CAROLINA COAST AS OF 06Z. DECIDED TO KEEP THE MENTION OF HEAVY
RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST AND ADDED THE MENTION OF TSTMS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS INCLUDING PISCATAQUIS CO. AND
UPSLOPE FAVORED AREAS WILL SEE OVER 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL W/SOME
SPOTS HITTING 3 INCHES IN A 12 HR PERIOD. AFTER COORDINATION
W/GYX, DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH. SOME MINOR
FLOODING COULD OCCUR ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS, BUT RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL BE ABLE TO HANDLE THIS
RAINFALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE OCCLUDED FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON. DEEP MOISTURE...WITH A TROPICAL
CONNECTION...WILL BE DRAWN NORTH ACROSS THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF
THE FRONT. AN AREA OF RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL CROSS THE
REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE OCCLUSION WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
ALSO POSSIBLE. PRECIPITATION WILL THEN TAPER TO SHOWERS IN THE
WAKE OF THE OCCLUSION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. COULD HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS FRIDAY EVENING.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
DOWNEAST. A LOW LEVEL JET WILL ALSO CROSS THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF
THE OCCLUSION. GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF THE
OCCLUSION...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST.
HOWEVER...FORECAST WINDS APPEAR SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN WITH PREVIOUS
MODEL RUNS. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATER
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS FRIDAY/SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION SUNDAY...WHILE AN
UPPER TROF CROSSES THE REGION. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS SUNDAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS DOWNEAST. COULD HAVE A CHANCE
OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
UPPER TROF WILL MOVE NORTHEAST MONDAY. COULD HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF MORNING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS MONDAY.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES NORTH WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DOWNEAST MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. EXPECT
INCREASING CLOUDS TUESDAY...WITH RAIN CHANCES THEN INCREASING
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS SUNDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVEL
TEMPERATURES MONDAY/TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR RIGHT INTO TONIGHT. THERE COULD BE PERIODS OF MVFR
EARLY TODAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERMINALS.

SHORT TERM: IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN IMPROVING TO MVFR/VFR
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS AND LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
COULD BE A CONCERN FRIDAY MORNING WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
ALSO POSSIBLE. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. OCCASIONAL MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION LATER SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS. GENERALLY
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY...THOUGH OCCASIONAL
MVFR CONDITIONS COULD LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS EARLY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: DECIDED TO GO W/A SCA STARTING LATER TONIGHT AS WINDS
AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE OCCLUSION. THE NAM
AND GFS BOTH SUPPORT A LLVL JET OF 50 KTS MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS
LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. SOME THIS STRONG WIND COULD MIX
DOWN TO THE SURFACE. DECIDED TO GO W/GUSTS 25+ KTS AFTER MIDNIGHT
W/SEAS BUILDING TO 7 FT BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE
WATERS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED
IN RAIN AND FOG FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...DUDA/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...DUDA/HEWITT/NORCROSS
MARINE...DUDA/HEWITT/NORCROSS






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CARIBOU ME

 622 AM EDT THU OCT 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER TODAY...THEN CROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
ADDED PATCHY FOG TO NORTHERN ZONES THIS MORNING. VISIBILITY AT KFVE
NOW AT 1/4SM AND KHUL 2SM. OTHER THAN POPULATING CURRENT HOURLY
TEMPERATURES AND EXTRAPOLATING TO FORECASTED HIGH TEMPS NO OTHER
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE THE TIMING OF RAINFALL AND AMOUNTS.

06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTED A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE
CROWN OF MAINE FROM ABOUT CARIBOU BACK THROUGH ALLAGASH. NORTH OF
THIS BOUNDARY TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT,
TEMPERATURES WERE RUNNING IN THE 60S. LATEST RADAR SHOWED A BATCH
OF PRECIP(SHOWERS) MOVING ACROSS THE NWRN TIP OF MAINE W/SOME VERY
LIGHT RETURNS SHOWING UP FROM TO TIME SOUTH OF THIS AREA DOWN INTO
THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS. THE LATEST RAP AND NAM SOUNDINGS
CONFIRMED THIS TO BE DRIZZLE W/A DEEP LLVL MOISTURE PROFILE, LIGHT
ESE WINDS AND A DECENT DRY WEDGE NORTH OF THE MOIST LAYER. DECIDED
TO CARRY DRIZZLE AND FOG INTO THE MID MORNING. THERE WILL BE SOME
SHOWERS AROUND, BUT THEY WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED AND CONFINED TO
THE W AND SW AS FORCING IS WEAK AT BEST AND LIMITED TO THE LLVLS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN TODAY W/READINGS IN THE
60S.

ALL THIS IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
AS AN OCCLUDED FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO TAP INTO A TROPICAL CONNECTION ASSOCIATED W/HRCN
GONZALO. THIS CONNECTION CAN BE SEEN ON THE LATEST SATELLITE WV
IMAGERY AS A STRONG PLUME IS SHOWN PUSHING N ALONG THE ATLC
SEABOARD. HIGH PWATS OF 1.5+ INCHES, A LLVL JET OF 50 KTS AND
STRONG SSE INFLOW THROUGH 700MBS SUPPORTS POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY
RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MDL SOUNDINGS ALSO POINT TO SOME
ELEVATED CAPE ESPECIALLY FROM THE SW INTO EASTERN AREAS BY EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. LIGHTING STRIKES WERE SEEN ALONG THE VIRGINIA-NORTH
CAROLINA COAST AS OF 06Z. DECIDED TO KEEP THE MENTION OF HEAVY
RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST AND ADDED THE MENTION OF TSTMS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS INCLUDING PISCATAQUIS CO. AND
UPSLOPE FAVORED AREAS WILL SEE OVER 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL W/SOME
SPOTS HITTING 3 INCHES IN A 12 HR PERIOD. AFTER COORDINATION
W/GYX, DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH. SOME MINOR
FLOODING COULD OCCUR ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS, BUT RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL BE ABLE TO HANDLE THIS
RAINFALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE OCCLUDED FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON. DEEP MOISTURE...WITH A TROPICAL
CONNECTION...WILL BE DRAWN NORTH ACROSS THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF
THE FRONT. AN AREA OF RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL CROSS THE
REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE OCCLUSION WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
ALSO POSSIBLE. PRECIPITATION WILL THEN TAPER TO SHOWERS IN THE
WAKE OF THE OCCLUSION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. COULD HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS FRIDAY EVENING.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
DOWNEAST. A LOW LEVEL JET WILL ALSO CROSS THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF
THE OCCLUSION. GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF THE
OCCLUSION...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST.
HOWEVER...FORECAST WINDS APPEAR SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN WITH PREVIOUS
MODEL RUNS. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATER
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS FRIDAY/SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION SUNDAY...WHILE AN
UPPER TROF CROSSES THE REGION. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS SUNDAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS DOWNEAST. COULD HAVE A CHANCE
OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
UPPER TROF WILL MOVE NORTHEAST MONDAY. COULD HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF MORNING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS MONDAY.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES NORTH WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DOWNEAST MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. EXPECT
INCREASING CLOUDS TUESDAY...WITH RAIN CHANCES THEN INCREASING
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS SUNDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVEL
TEMPERATURES MONDAY/TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR RIGHT INTO TONIGHT. THERE COULD BE PERIODS OF MVFR
EARLY TODAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERMINALS.

SHORT TERM: IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN IMPROVING TO MVFR/VFR
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS AND LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
COULD BE A CONCERN FRIDAY MORNING WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
ALSO POSSIBLE. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. OCCASIONAL MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION LATER SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS. GENERALLY
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY...THOUGH OCCASIONAL
MVFR CONDITIONS COULD LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS EARLY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: DECIDED TO GO W/A SCA STARTING LATER TONIGHT AS WINDS
AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE OCCLUSION. THE NAM
AND GFS BOTH SUPPORT A LLVL JET OF 50 KTS MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS
LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. SOME THIS STRONG WIND COULD MIX
DOWN TO THE SURFACE. DECIDED TO GO W/GUSTS 25+ KTS AFTER MIDNIGHT
W/SEAS BUILDING TO 7 FT BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE
WATERS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED
IN RAIN AND FOG FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...DUDA/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...DUDA/HEWITT/NORCROSS
MARINE...DUDA/HEWITT/NORCROSS






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CARIBOU ME

 512 AM EDT THU OCT 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER TODAY...THEN CROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE THE TIMING OF RAINFALL AND AMOUNTS.

06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTED A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE
CROWN OF MAINE FROM ABOUT CARIBOU BACK THROUGH ALLAGASH. NORTH OF
THE THIS BOUNDARY WAS TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND SOUTH OF THE
FRONT, TEMPERATURES WERE RUNNING IN THE 60S. LATEST RADAR SHOWED A
BATCH OF PRECIP(SHOWERS) MOVING ACROSS THE NWRN TIP OF MAINE
W/SOME VERY LIGHT RETURNS SHOWING UP FROM TO TIME SOUTH OF THIS
AREA DOWN INTO THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS. THE LATEST RAP AND
NAM SOUNDINGS CONFIRMED THIS TO BE DRIZZLE W/A DEEP LLVL MOISTURE
PROFILE, LIGHT ESE WINDS AND A DECENT DRY WEDGE NORTH OF THE MOIST
LAYER. DECIDED TO CARRY DRIZZLE AND FOG INTO THE MID MORNING.
THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWERS AROUND, BUT THEY WILL BE WIDELY
SCATTERED AND CONFINED TO THE W AND SW AS FORCING IS WEAK AT BEST
AND LIMITED TO THE LLVLS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN
TODAY W/READINGS IN THE 60S.

ALL THIS IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
AS AN OCCLUDED FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO TAP INTO A TROPICAL CONNECTION ASSOCIATED W/HRCN
GONZALO. THIS CONNECTION CAN BE SEEN ON THE LATEST SATELLITE WV
IMAGERY AS A STRONG PLUME IS SHOWN PUSHING N ALONG THE ATLC
SEABOARD. HIGH PWATS OF 1.5+ INCHES, A LLVL JET OF 50 KTS AND
STRONG SSE INFLOW THROUGH 700MBS SUPPORTS POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY
RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MDL SOUNDINGS ALSO POINT TO SOME
ELEVATED CAPE ESPECIALLY FROM THE SW INTO EASTERN AREAS BY EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. LIGHTING STRIKES WERE SEEN ALONG THE VIRGINIA-NORTH
CAROLINA COAST AS OF 06Z. DECIDED TO KEEP THE MENTION OF HEAVY
RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST AND ADDED THE MENTION OF TSTMS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS INCLUDING PISCATAQUIS CO. AND
UPSLOPE FAVORED AREAS WILL SEE OVER 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL W/SOME
SPOTS HITTING 3 INCHES IN A 12 HR PERIOD. AFTER COORDINATION
W/GYX, DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH. SOME MINOR
FLOODING COULD OCCUR ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS, BUT RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL BE ABLE TO HANDLE THIS
RAINFALL.
&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE OCCLUDED FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON. DEEP MOISTURE...WITH A TROPICAL
CONNECTION...WILL BE DRAWN NORTH ACROSS THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF
THE FRONT. AN AREA OF RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL CROSS THE
REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE OCCLUSION WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
ALSO POSSIBLE. PRECIPITATION WILL THEN TAPER TO SHOWERS IN THE
WAKE OF THE OCCLUSION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. COULD HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS FRIDAY EVENING.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
DOWNEAST. A LOW LEVEL JET WILL ALSO CROSS THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF
THE OCCLUSION. GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF THE
OCCLUSION...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST.
HOWEVER...FORECAST WINDS APPEAR SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN WITH PREVIOUS
MODEL RUNS. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATER
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS FRIDAY/SATURDAY.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION SUNDAY...WHILE AN
UPPER TROF CROSSES THE REGION. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS SUNDAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS DOWNEAST. COULD HAVE A CHANCE
OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
UPPER TROF WILL MOVE NORTHEAST MONDAY. COULD HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF MORNING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS MONDAY.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES NORTH WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DOWNEAST MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. EXPECT
INCREASING CLOUDS TUESDAY...WITH RAIN CHANCES THEN INCREASING
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS SUNDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVEL
TEMPERATURES MONDAY/TUESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR RIGHT INTO TONIGHT. THERE COULD BE PERIODS OF MVFR
EARLY TODAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERMINALS.

SHORT TERM: IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN IMPROVING TO MVFR/VFR
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS AND LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
COULD BE A CONCERN FRIDAY MORNING WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
ALSO POSSIBLE. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. OCCASIONAL MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION LATER SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS. GENERALLY
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY...THOUGH OCCASIONAL
MVFR CONDITIONS COULD LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS EARLY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: DECIDED TO GO W/A SCA STARTING LATER TONIGHT AS WINDS
AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE OCCLUSION. THE NAM
AND GFS BOTH SUPPORT A LLVL JET OF 50 KTS MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS
LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. SOME THIS STRONG WIND COULD MIX
DOWN TO THE SURFACE. DECIDED TO GO W/GUSTS 25+ KTS AFTER MIDNIGHT
W/SEAS BUILDING TO 7 FT BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE
WATERS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED
IN RAIN AND FOG FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...HEWITT/NORCROSS
MARINE...HEWITT/NORCROSS











AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CARIBOU ME

 211 AM EDT THU OCT 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE OVERNIGHT WILL MOVE BACK
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT FROM QUEBEC WILL
APPROACH LATE THURSDAY THEN SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
2 AM UPDATE...ADJUSTED THE POPS FURTHER TO SHOW ONLY SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE. ELSEWHERE, DECIDED TO CARRY
DRIZZLE AND SOME FOG ESPECIALLY DOWNEAST AND THE COAST AS FORCING
IS WEAK AT BEST AND LIMITED TO THE LLVLS ATTM PER THE LATEST LAPS
AND RAP SOUNDINGS. QPF WAS ALSO ADJUSTED BACK A BIT TO REFLECT
THIS THINKING.

EXPECT CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE ON
THURSDAY WITH A STEADIER RAIN MOVING IN FROM WEST TO EAST LATER
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE RAIN WILL BECOME HEAVIER BY LATER
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT. HIGHS
ON THURSDAY WONT BE AS WARM AS TODAY BUT STILL 10 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ALL MODELS AGREE THAT THE COLD FRONT ALONG WITH THE BAND OF
HEAVIER RNFL AHEAD OF IT ARRIVESINTO THE FA FROM THE W LATER THU
NGT...TRAVERSING THE FA FRI MRNG INTO ERLY AFTN...THEN EXITING THE
FA LATER FIR AFTN. THE BIGGEST QUESTION IS HOW MUCH OF TROP
CONNECTION WITH DEEP MOISTURE STREAMING WELL NNWRD FROM GONZALO IN
THE OPEN N CNTRL ATLC. SOME MODELS INDICATE A BETTER CONNECTION
THEN OTHERS...RESULTING IN EITHER HVY RNFL GETTING WELL NWRD INTO
OUR FA VS ONLY AFFECTING INTERIOR SW AND DOWNEAST AREAS. FOR
NOW...OUR FCST QPF PLAYS THE MIDDLE GROUND BETWEEN THESE TWO
SCENARIOS...AND WE SHOW A HIGHER RNFL TOTAL OF UPWARDS OF 2 INCHES
OR SO ALG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE CNTRL ME AND BAXTER PARK
HIGHLANDS... WITH 1.0 TO 1.5 INCHES ELSEWHERE BEFORE RNFL ENDS BY
FRI EVE. OF COURSE...TEMPS THU NGT AND FRI WILL REMAIN QUITE MILD
FOR THIS TM OF SEASON.

IN ADDITION TO RN...WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FROM THE THE SSE AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT ON FRI WITH THE MDTLY STRONG MSL PRES GRAD.
ALSO... SOME ELEVATED CAPE IS POSSIBLE JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT ACROSS ALL OF THE FA...SO WE CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLD TSTMS.

THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ALSO DOES NOT LOOK TO BE THAT
MUCH COOLER...SO OVRNGT LOWS FRI NGT WILL ALSO BE MILD...BUT A
LITTLE COOLER THAN THU NGT UNDER CLRG SKIES DOWNEAST AND E CNTRL
AND PRTL CLRG SKIES ACROSS THE N. SAT SHOULD BE FAIR...WITH
INCREASING CLDNSS LATE IN THE DAY WITH ANOTHER S/WV AND STRONGER
COLD FRONT APCHG FROM QB. ANY SHWRS FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL ONLY
AFFECT FAR WRN PTNS OF THE FA JUST PRIOR TO EVE. HI TEMPS WILL
AGAIN BE QUITE MILD FOR THIS TM OF SEASON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE
REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SLOW-MOVING UPPER
LOW. SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY LOOK TO BE THE RAINIEST PERIODS,
BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A SLIGHT CHANCE OR LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS EACH
DAY THEREAFTER, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST MAINE. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL, WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPS TO BE LOW ENOUGH
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE NORTH FOR SOME SNOW TO POSSIBLY
MIX IN WITH ANY RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS EVENING WILL BE GIVING WAY TO
WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR IN LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE DAY THURSDAY.

SHORT TERM: LIFR TO IFR CLGS AND VSBYS IN RN WILL PREVAIL THRU
MUCH OF FRI ACROSS THE TAF SITES...THEN RECOVER TO VFR BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT LATER FRI AFTN AND REMAIN SO THRU FRI NGT AND SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS TONIGHT AND MOST OF THURSDAY...AND THEN BEGIN TO INCREASE
LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON. VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED TO LESS THAN
1 NM IN AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE TONIGHT AND THEN TO 1 TO 3 NM IN
DEVELOPING RAIN AND PATCHY FOG ON THURSDAY.


SHORT TERM: SCA CONDITIONS WILL COMMENCE ACROSS THE WATERS THU EVE
AND CONT SO THRU SAT. WIND WILL INITIALLY BE THE CULPRIT FOR
HIGHER WVS THU NGT AND FRI...WITH DISTANT SWELL FROM GONZALO IN
THE CNTRL ATLC AFFECTING OUR WATERS FRI NGT INTO SAT AS WINDS
DIMINISH BLO SCA THRESHOLDS. OTHERWISE...MARINE FOG WILL BE
CONCERN THU NGT INTO ERLY FRI AFTN AS MOIST LLVL TROP AIR STREAMS
NWRD OVR THE COLD GULF OF ME WATERS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAY ME

 105 AM EDT THU OCT 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY AND WILL FINALLY CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. A WEAK
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON FRIDAY. A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AND WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
1230 AM UPDATE...CUT DOWN ON POP A BIT AS NO SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS
DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA YET.

.UPDATE...
PUSHED TIMING OF PRECIPITATION BACK A FEW HOURS BASED ON LATEST
MODEL CONSENSUS...NAMELY THE WRF AND RAP MODELS. SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS HAVE BEGUN TO FALL IN THE HIGHER PEAKS AND HAVE INCREASED
POPS IN THESE AREAS. SHOWERS INCREASE MOSTLY OVER NH THROUGH 2
AM AND THEN EASTWARD THROUGH DAYBREAK AS LLJ AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
SHIFT OVER THE REGION.

AREAS CURRENTLY RECEIVING RAINFALL FROM NORTHERN NY STATE TO
COASTAL NJ HAVE SEEN WARM RAIN PROCESSES DOMINATING WITH HEAVY...
TRAINING PRECIPITATION BANDS CONTRIBUTING TO HIGH RAINFALL RATES
OF A HALF AN INCH OR MORE PER HOUR. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE
SLOWLY EAST OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE.
INCIDENTALLY TONIGHT`S 00Z KGYX SOUNDING HAS 1.20 INCHES FOR
PRECIPITABLE WATER... THIS IS NEAR THE 80TH PERCENTILE FOR
OCTOBER. STILL EXPECTING THE HEAVIEST AXIS OF RAIN TO REACH NH AND
MAINE BETWEEN 8 AM AND NOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT REMAINS PRETTY MUCH
STATUS QUO WITH A HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT EXPECTED. THE HEAVIEST
BANDS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THURSDAY MORNING IN THE
WEST...EVENTUALLY TRANSLATING TO THE EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AND PUSH THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WE ARE STILL EXPECTING A
GOOD 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES OF RAINFALL...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLY TO AROUND 3 INCHES ALONG WINDWARD SLOPES OF THE WHITES
AND MAINE FOOTHILLS AS TROPICAL MOISTURE GETS ADVECTED IN ON STOUT
SELY INFLOW. CONVERSELY...LOCATIONS ON THE LEEWARD SIDE OF THE
MOUNTAINS...SUCH AS WHITEFIELD NH...SHOULD SEE MUCH LESS RAINFALL.
PERHAPS NOT EVEN A HALF INCH THERE.

ENOUGH INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT TO
ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLD THUNDER. MORE PERSISTENT HEAVIER CONVECTIVE
BANDS MAY BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN SOME DECENT WIND GUSTS.
HOWEVER...AS OF THIS WRITING THE BOUNDARY LAYER LOOKS TO BE A BIT
TOO INVERTED FOR A STRONG WIND EVENT. IN ADDITION...SOME OF THE
MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE SPEED OF THE LOW LEVEL JET AS WELL.
MOST ARE 40 KT OR LOWER IN THE LOWEST 5 KFT. THEREFORE...DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THURSDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING.
FRESHENING WESTERLY FLOW WILL CLEAR LINGERING STRATUS THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON. MAY SEE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS IN NORTHEAST
ZONES DURING THE MORNING BUT THESE SHOULD CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA
BY EARLY AFTERNOON. NOT A LOT IN THE WAY OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT AND INCREASING SUN AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL AGAIN SEND
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID 60S TO LOWER
70S.

IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS FRIDAY NIGHT AS WEAK RIDGE FLATTENS AND
SECONDARY COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WILL SEE VARIABLE
CLOUDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND JUST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE.
EXPECT TEMPS TO RANGE THROUGH THE 40S NORTH AND IN THE UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S SOUTH.

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY BRINGING INCREASING
CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS. BEST CHANCE
OF PRECIP WILL BE IN NORTHWEST ZONES BUT NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH IN
THE WAY OF QPF. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY UNIFORM ACROSS THE
REGION WITH MOST AREAS REACHING THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

MORE OF THE SAME FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS DEEP TROUGH
ALOFT KEEPS UNSTABLE AIR OVER THE REGION. WILL SEE MUCH COOLER
TEMPS ON SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH HIGHS NOT GETTING OUT OF THE
40S IN THE NORTH AND LOWER TO MID 50S SOUTH. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL ADD TO THE CHILL.

STRONG NORTHWEST GRADIENT WILL PERSIST INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL
DIMINISH SOMEWHAT ON MONDAY AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER LABRADOR
CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY. EXPECT CLOUDS TO DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT
DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY.
AFTER A CHILLY START WILL ONCE AGAIN ONLY SEE HIGHS IN THE MID 40S
TO MID 50S.

UPPER TROUGH WILL ONCE AGAIN DIG INTO THE NEW ENGLAND AS FRESH
BATCH OF JET ENERGY DIGS INTO THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL KEEP CLOUDS
AND SCATTERED SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR OR LOWER EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT IN LOW STRATUS AND FOG. THESE CONDITIONS LOOK TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT IN STRATUS...FOG...AND
OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

LONG TERM...IFR/LIFR EARLY FRIDAY BECOMING VFR. VFR FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA HAS BEEN HOISTED FOR ALL WATERS THU THROUGH FRI.
LOW PROBABILITY OF MARGINAL GALE GUSTS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
THURS EVENING...BUT LOOKS LIKE MIXING WILL BE LIMITED.

LONG TERM...SCA`S LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
EXPECTING A 1.5 TO 2.5 INCH RAINFALL EVENT STARTING LATE TONIGHT.
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. NO
FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME AS THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
IN LOCATIONS OF HEAVIEST BANDS OF RAIN. HOWEVER...URBAN AND LOW
LYING FLOODING IS LIKELY. SOME FLASHIER STREAMS MAY SHOW VERY
SHARP RISES. THE MOST LIKELY CANDIDATE FOR A WATCH WOULD BE THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS AND MAINE FOOTHILLS...BUT WILL LET NEXT SHIFT SEE
NEW DATA.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
KISTNER




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 744 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

...A COOL WET AND WINDY EVENING WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT LATER
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...

WV LOOP AND IR SATELLITE AND NWS REGIONAL RADAR AND CANADIAN RADAR
LOOPS SHOWING AN EXPANDED AREA OF RAIN SWEEPING NORTH TO SOUTH OVER
UPPER GREAT LAKES. BASED ON SFC OBS...APPEARS BACK EDGE OF RAIN IS
OVR CENTRAL LK SUPERIOR ENE INTO ADJACENT AREAS OF ONTARIO. PRIMARY
SFC LOW IS NOW JUST SOUTH OF JAMES BAY AT AROUND 990MB. NORTH WINDS
OVER THE REGION ARE GUSTING OVER 30 MPH OVER MUCH OF LK SUPERIOR AND
OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN UPR MICHIGAN...WITH 20-30 MPH GUSTS FARTHER
INLAND AND TOWARD LK MICHIGAN. BASED ON UPSTREAM TRENDS...SHORT
TERM MODEL FORECASTS FM NAM/GEM-REGIONAL SEEM IN GOOD SHAPE..AND
HAVE LEANED ON THOSE ALONG WITH THE HRRR FOR DETAILS IN THE NEXT
12-15 HRS. EXPECT A PERIOD OF RAIN AND STRONG WINDS THROUGH AT LEAST
THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE PRECIP DIMINISHES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS
MOISTURE ABOVE H9 DIMINISHES SHARPLY. EVEN WITH THE DECREASE IN
MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE...ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
INTO MUCH OF SATURDAY ALONG WITH A NNW LOW-LEVEL FLOW BTWN DEPARTING
LOW AND APPROACHING SFC HIGH. LAKE ENHANCED PRECIP THIS EVENING
/DELTA T/S AROUND 8C GIVEN SUFFICIENT LARGE SCALE MOISTURE AND LIFT/
SHOULD TRANSITION TO PURE LAKE EFFECT SINCE THERE IS JUST ENOUGH
OVER-WATER INSTABILITY PRESENT AS TEMPS AT INVERSION TOP 900-875MB
FALL TO -5C AFTER 09Z WHILE WATER TEMPS ON AVERAGE ARE AROUND +8C
/PROVIDING DELTA T/S OF 13C/.

BASED ON SOUNDINGS...ANY SNOW POTENTIAL IS BASED ON EXTENT OF
WARMING IN LOWEST PARTS OF THE BLYR. THUS CONTINUED TO USE WBZERO
HEIGHTS TO DETERMINE THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW. APPEARS THAT HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS OF WEST AND CNTRL CWA SEE THE BEST CHANCES FOR SOME
SNOW...BUT WITHOUT DEEPER MOISTURE/LIFTING OCCURRING...SEEMS THAT
TEMPS IN MOIST LAYER MAY NOT BE AS LOW AS -8C OR -10C...SUGGESTING
THERE MAY NOT BE ICE CRYSTALS INTRODUCED FM ALOFT TO LEAD TO BETTER
CHANCES OF SNOW. A WEAK WAVE ALOFT CURRENTLY DROPPING SE OVER CNTRL
MANITOBA MAY PUSH ACROSS WEST CWA LATER TONIGHT RESULTING IN A BIT OF
ADDITIONAL H7-H5 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND LIFT TO HELP OUT THE CAUSE.
EVEN IMPACT FM THAT APPEARS MINIMAL ATTM. OVERALL...CHANCES OF
MEASURABLE SNOW APPEAR MINIMAL WITH THIS SYSTEM.

SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH INVERSION AT
H85-H8 ON SATURDAY. KEPT IN SMALL POPS FOR LAKE EFFECT AS SETUP IS
NOT ALL THAT DIFFERENT FM LATE TONIGHT. GRADUALLY...AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA...EXPECT BLYR TO DRY OUT BLO CLOUD BASE
ENOUGH TO RESULT IN ANY LGT PRECIP COMING TO AN END. TEMPS WILL BE
CHILLY AS LOW-LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH IS OVERHEAD. EXPECT MAX TEMPS
MAINLY IN THE 30S...EXCEPT SOME LOW 40S OVER SCNTRL CWA. ADDED TO
THE CHILL WILL BE CONTINUING GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS...
STRONGEST NEAR LK SUPERIOR OVER THE EAST CWA IN THE MORNING.

LIKELY THE BIGGEST POTENTIAL IMPACT FM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WINDS AND
WAVE ACTION ALONG LK SUPERIOR. GIVEN THE HIGH WATER LEVELS ON LAKE
SUPERIOR WHICH ARE THE HIGHEST SINCE THE MID 1990S AND WAVES
BUILDING TO 8-12 FEET INTO THIS EVENING AND THROUGH TONIGHT (HIGHEST
E OF THE KEWEENAW)...MINOR BEACH EROSION AND LOCALIZED FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ON THE BEACHES FROM AROUND MARQUETTE TO GRAND
MARAIS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MENTIONED IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK AND THE GRAPHICAL EHWO.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

NAM SHOWS A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. 00Z SUN. THERE IS A
SHORTWAVE OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES 00Z SUN THAT AFFECTS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES LATE ON SUN. A 500 MB RIDGE THEN BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS
ON MON. NAM SHOWS SOME DEEPER MOISTURE AND 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE MOVING INTO THE AREA LATE SUN AND THEN MOVING OUT ON
MON. NAM SHOWS SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE ON I290K-I305K
SURFACES MOVING INTO THE AREA SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE
MOVING OUT ON MON. WILL KEEP SOME LOW CHANCE POPS SUN MORNING
GRADUALLY SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA SUN AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AND
THEN DRYING OUT LATE MONDAY. DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE
TEMPERATURES OR THE WEATHER AS THE FORECAST HAD THINGS WELL IN HAND.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB TROUGH ON THE WEST
COAST 12Z TUE WITH A RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS AND A TROUGH IN THE ERN
U.S. THE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z WED INTO 12Z
THU WITH RIDGING STAYING IN PLACE INTO FRI. THIS FORECAST PERIOD
WILL BE DRY WITH A WARMING TREND WITH TEMPERATURES GOING ABOVE
NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 744 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

STRONG NORTHERLY UPSLOPE WINDS AND PCPN WILL RESULT IN LOWER END MVFR
THROUGH THE EVENING. THE STRENGTHENING NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE
STRONGEST AT SAW THIS AFTN/EVENING WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 30KT. AS
DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FLOW INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
OVERNIGHT...CIGS SHOULD LIFT AOA 2K FT AT ALL TERMINALS WITH
PCPN DIMINISHING OR ENDING. IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR FIRST AT KCMX AND
LAST AT SAW AS MOISTURE THINS OUT THERE LATEST. ALTHOUGH LAKE
MOISTURE WILL DELAY CLEARING...EXPECT VFR CONDITOINS BY LATE MORNING
AT IWD AND CMX AND BY LATE AFTERNOON AT SAW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

GALES 35-40 KTS REMAIN ON TRACK OVER LK SUPERIOR THROUGH TONIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS SOUTHEAST OF JAMES BAY. WINDS JUST STARTING TO
INCREASE ON BAY OF GREEN BAY AND LK MICHIGAN AND EXPECT FREQUENT
GALE GUSTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT THERE. AS A HIGH PRES RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY AFTN...STRONG WINDS WILL DIMINISH
WEST TO EAST. ALTHOUGH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE/SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRACK ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK...NO STRONG WINDS ARE
EXPECTED.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LSZ266-267.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LSZ244-245-248>251-264-
     265.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ242-243-246-247-
     263.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LMZ221-248-250.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLA







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 250 PM EDT THU OCT 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1003 AM EDT THU OCT 16 2014

...CLOUDS STICKING AROUND BUT DRIZZLE AND FOG SHOULD END THIS
AFTERNOON...

TWEAKED GOING FORECAST MAINLY FOR THE DENSE FOG ALONG SHORELINE OF
WESTERN CWA. LIMITED ADVECTION AS WINDS ARE LIGHT MAY MAKE IT HARD
TO GET RID OF THIS FOG. FOR MOST PART...THICKEST FOG IS OVER THE
LAKE BUT WEB CAMS FROM ASHLAND WI...PORCUPINE MTS...ONTONAGON...AND
EAGLE HARBOR SHOW IT PUSHING JUST INLAND AS WELL. ELSEWHERE...JUST
SEEING SOME LINGERING DRIZZLE OVER PARTS OF CNTRL CWA AND 1-3SM TYPE
FOG. PROBABLY WILL SEE THE DRIZZLE AND FOG DISIPPATE BY EARLY AFTN
BUT THE CLOUDS LIKELY WILL STAY DUE TO THE LACK OF DRY AIR
ADVECTION BENEATH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AROUND H85-H8 PER FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND 12Z RAOBS FM KINL AND KGRB. IMPACT TO TEMPS NOT TOO
LARGE AS HIGHEST READINGS IN THE 50S STILL EXPECTED OVER FAR WEST
CWA WHERE SKIES ARE ALREADY PARTLY CLOUDY ATTM.

NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OF NOTE IS PUSHING ACROSS EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WITH SHARP WIND SHIFT NOTED OVER WESTERN DAKOTAS. SHOULD SEE
SIMILAR WEATHER OVER UPR MICHIGAN ON FRIDAY WITH INCREASING NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS AND MORE RAIN AS THAT DAKOTAS SYSTEM MERGES WITH THE
SYSTEM THAT MOVED ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION EARLIER THIS WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 459 AM EDT THU OCT 16 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTERED OVER IN/OH. MUCH OF THE FCST AREA REMAINS UNDER
CONSIDERABLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE NW SIDE OF THIS FEATURE...AND
KMQT RADAR HAS SHOWN SPOTTY -SHRA/SPRINKLES AT TIMES OVER THE ERN
FCST AREA OVERNIGHT. MUCH OF FAR WRN UPPER MI ENJOYED SUNNY SKIES
YESTERDAY. DURING THE NIGHT...SOME FOG HAS FORMED IN THAT AREA AS
WELL AS SOME LOW CLOUDS FROM PORTIONS OF THE KEWEENAW DOWN ALONG THE
VCNTY OF THE SHORELINE INTO NW WI. UPSTREAM...A RATHER POTENT
LOOKING SHORTWAVE IS MOVING E ACROSS MT WITH ASSOCIATED SFC LOW IN
THE ND/SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA BORDER AREA.

FOR TODAY...SOME -SHRA/SPRINKLES MAY CONTINUE TO APPEAR AT TIMES
THRU THE MID MORNING OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE FCST AREA UNDER
LINGERING WEAK DEEP LAYER FORCING PER QVECTORS. DEEP LAYER QVECTOR
DIVERGENCE THEN TAKES OVER...SO IT APPEARS DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE THE
RULE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTN. BIGGEST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE
CLOUD TRENDS. WITH A LIGHT/VRBL WIND REGIME ACROSS THE AREA TODAY
BTWN SFC LOW IN SRN ONTARIO AND APPROACHING LOW MOVING ALONG
U.S./CANADA BORDER...THERE WILL BE LITTLE ADVECTION OCCURRING.
THUS...A PESSIMISTIC CLOUD FCST APPEARS TO BE THE WAY TO GO. THE W
WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE THE BETTER OPPORTUNITY TO SEE SOME
SUNSHINE...AND THIS SHOULD HELP BOOST TEMPS TO AROUND 60F. WHERE
CLOUDS ARE MORE PERSISTENT...LWR 50S WILL BE MORE COMMON.

TONIGHT...THE POTENT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK INTO NRN MN AND
WILL HELP PICK UP THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY.
AS THIS OCCURS...PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE LATTER FEATURE WILL SWING
BACK TO THE NW WITH LEFT EXIT OF 100KT UPPER JET STREAK ON E SIDE OF
THE LOW ASSISTING PCPN PRODUCTION. MUCH OF THAT PCPN SHOULD PASS BY
TO THE E AND N OF UPPER MI...BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO MENTION SCHC POPS
OVER THE FAR E LATE. MEANWHILE...FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE WILL SPREAD INTO WRN UPPER MI. INITIALLY...DEEP MOISTURE
IN THE COLUMN IS LACKING...SO IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME BEFORE PCPN
DEVELOPS. BEST POTENTIAL FOR PCPN SHOULD COME WITH THE ADDITION OF
LOWER LEVEL FORCING FROM SFC-850MB TROF TRAILING WNW FROM SFC LOW
WHICH SHOULD BE IN THE VCNTY OF CNTRL UPPER MI AT 12Z MON. HAVE THUS
INTRODUCED CHC POPS OVER WRN UPPER LATE TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT THU OCT 16 2014

NAM SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES 00Z SAT WITH A
TROUGH OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THERE IS A SHORTWAVE THAT IS
MOVING DOWN THE RIDGE AND WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FRI
NIGHT FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE LATE SUN.

DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR THIS
FORECAST PERIOD FOR TEMPERATURE OR WEATHER. HAVE LIKELY POPS IN FOR
FRI NIGHT AND SAT IN UPSLOPE AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AND THEN DRY
THINGS OUT STARTING SAT AFTERNOON BEFORE BRINGING IN SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR LATE SUN.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES 12Z MON WITH A SFC FRONT AND LOW PASSING THROUGH THE
AREA. THIS TROUGH MOVES EAST ON TUE AND A 500 MB RIDGE BUILDS INTO
THE PLAINS THEN. THE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z WED
THROUGH 12Z THU. THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL HAVE MOSTLY A DRY AND
WARMING TREND WITH TEMPERATURES GOING ABOVE NORMAL BY TUE. WILL BE
DRY MON NIGHT THROUGH THU FOR THIS FORECAST.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 147 PM EDT THU OCT 16 2014

AT KIWD AND KCMX...VFR CONDITIONS INTO TONIGHT...THEN AS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA BEGINS TO CROSS THE AREA
AND WINDS TURN NORTHERLY...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO RAPIDLY DETERIORATE
TO IFR OR EVEN LOWER IN RAIN AND FOG.

AT KSAW...WITH WEAK WINDS INTO TONIGHT AND LACK OF DRY AIR
ADVECTION...LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT KSAW. VSBY SHOULD
FALL BACK TO IFR LATER TONIGHT WITH NIGHTTIME COOLING LEADING TO
MORE SATURATION. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH ON FRIDAY WILL
SWITCH WINDS TO NORTHERLY MID-LATE MORNING WHICH WILL RESULT IN
CONTINUATION OF LOW CLOUDS...AT LEAST AS LOW AS IFR. VSBY MAY
IMPROVE FOR A TIME THOUGH...BEFORE STEADIER RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS
DEVELOP ON FRIDAY AFTN.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 434 AM EDT THU OCT 16 2014

EXPECT LIGHT WINDS INTO EARLY FRI UNDER A RELATIVELY WEAK PRES
GRADIENT. BUT THEN AS A PAIR OF UPPER DISTURBANCES COMBINE ON FRI...
A DEEP LO PRES WILL DEVELOP IN SE CANADA AND BRING INCREASING NNW
WINDS THAT INCREASE TO GALE FORCE/UP TO 40 KTS ON FRI AFTERNOON AND
FRI NIGHT THAT IMPACT ALMOST ALL OF LAKE SUPERIOR INTO NORTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN. ISSUED GALE WATCHES FOR ALL BUT FAR WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR...WHERE THE WINDS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG. AS A HI PRES
RIDGE APPROACHES FROM THE W ON SAT...THE STRONG WINDS WILL DIMINISH
W-E. ALTHOUGH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE/SURFACE LO PRES WILL TRACK ACROSS
THE UPPER LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK...NO STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     LSZ248>251-267.

  GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     LSZ266.

  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT /4 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LSZ162-241>244-263-264.

  GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
     LSZ263>265.

  GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     LSZ244-245.

  GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
     LSZ242-243.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
  GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     LMZ248-250.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JLA
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...KC







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 148 PM EDT THU OCT 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1003 AM EDT THU OCT 16 2014

...CLOUDS STICKING AROUND BUT DRIZZLE AND FOG SHOULD END THIS
AFTERNOON...

TWEAKED GOING FORECAST MAINLY FOR THE DENSE FOG ALONG SHORELINE OF
WESTERN CWA. LIMITED ADVECTION AS WINDS ARE LIGHT MAY MAKE IT HARD
TO GET RID OF THIS FOG. FOR MOST PART...THICKEST FOG IS OVER THE
LAKE BUT WEB CAMS FROM ASHLAND WI...PORCUPINE MTS...ONTONAGON...AND
EAGLE HARBOR SHOW IT PUSHING JUST INLAND AS WELL. ELSEWHERE...JUST
SEEING SOME LINGERING DRIZZLE OVER PARTS OF CNTRL CWA AND 1-3SM TYPE
FOG. PROBABLY WILL SEE THE DRIZZLE AND FOG DISIPPATE BY EARLY AFTN
BUT THE CLOUDS LIKELY WILL STAY DUE TO THE LACK OF DRY AIR
ADVECTION BENEATH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AROUND H85-H8 PER FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND 12Z RAOBS FM KINL AND KGRB. IMPACT TO TEMPS NOT TOO
LARGE AS HIGHEST READINGS IN THE 50S STILL EXPECTED OVER FAR WEST
CWA WHERE SKIES ARE ALREADY PARTLY CLOUDY ATTM.

NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OF NOTE IS PUSHING ACROSS EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WITH SHARP WIND SHIFT NOTED OVER WESTERN DAKOTAS. SHOULD SEE
SIMILAR WEATHER OVER UPR MICHIGAN ON FRIDAY WITH INCREASING NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS AND MORE RAIN AS THAT DAKOTAS SYSTEM MERGES WITH THE
SYSTEM THAT MOVED ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION EARLIER THIS WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 459 AM EDT THU OCT 16 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTERED OVER IN/OH. MUCH OF THE FCST AREA REMAINS UNDER
CONSIDERABLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE NW SIDE OF THIS FEATURE...AND
KMQT RADAR HAS SHOWN SPOTTY -SHRA/SPRINKLES AT TIMES OVER THE ERN
FCST AREA OVERNIGHT. MUCH OF FAR WRN UPPER MI ENJOYED SUNNY SKIES
YESTERDAY. DURING THE NIGHT...SOME FOG HAS FORMED IN THAT AREA AS
WELL AS SOME LOW CLOUDS FROM PORTIONS OF THE KEWEENAW DOWN ALONG THE
VCNTY OF THE SHORELINE INTO NW WI. UPSTREAM...A RATHER POTENT
LOOKING SHORTWAVE IS MOVING E ACROSS MT WITH ASSOCIATED SFC LOW IN
THE ND/SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA BORDER AREA.

FOR TODAY...SOME -SHRA/SPRINKLES MAY CONTINUE TO APPEAR AT TIMES
THRU THE MID MORNING OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE FCST AREA UNDER
LINGERING WEAK DEEP LAYER FORCING PER QVECTORS. DEEP LAYER QVECTOR
DIVERGENCE THEN TAKES OVER...SO IT APPEARS DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE THE
RULE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTN. BIGGEST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE
CLOUD TRENDS. WITH A LIGHT/VRBL WIND REGIME ACROSS THE AREA TODAY
BTWN SFC LOW IN SRN ONTARIO AND APPROACHING LOW MOVING ALONG
U.S./CANADA BORDER...THERE WILL BE LITTLE ADVECTION OCCURRING.
THUS...A PESSIMISTIC CLOUD FCST APPEARS TO BE THE WAY TO GO. THE W
WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE THE BETTER OPPORTUNITY TO SEE SOME
SUNSHINE...AND THIS SHOULD HELP BOOST TEMPS TO AROUND 60F. WHERE
CLOUDS ARE MORE PERSISTENT...LWR 50S WILL BE MORE COMMON.

TONIGHT...THE POTENT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK INTO NRN MN AND
WILL HELP PICK UP THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY.
AS THIS OCCURS...PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE LATTER FEATURE WILL SWING
BACK TO THE NW WITH LEFT EXIT OF 100KT UPPER JET STREAK ON E SIDE OF
THE LOW ASSISTING PCPN PRODUCTION. MUCH OF THAT PCPN SHOULD PASS BY
TO THE E AND N OF UPPER MI...BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO MENTION SCHC POPS
OVER THE FAR E LATE. MEANWHILE...FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE WILL SPREAD INTO WRN UPPER MI. INITIALLY...DEEP MOISTURE
IN THE COLUMN IS LACKING...SO IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME BEFORE PCPN
DEVELOPS. BEST POTENTIAL FOR PCPN SHOULD COME WITH THE ADDITION OF
LOWER LEVEL FORCING FROM SFC-850MB TROF TRAILING WNW FROM SFC LOW
WHICH SHOULD BE IN THE VCNTY OF CNTRL UPPER MI AT 12Z MON. HAVE THUS
INTRODUCED CHC POPS OVER WRN UPPER LATE TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 AM EDT THU OCT 16 2014

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE MEDIUM/LONG TERM WL FOCUS ON POPS AND
WINDS ON FRI INTO SAT AS A STRONG DISTURBANCE SLIDES THRU THE UPR
LKS AND INTERACTS WITH SLOW MOVING CLOSED LO RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
RECENT INCLEMENT WX OVER THE E HALF OF UPR MI. AS THE DISTURBANCES
PHASE...A DEEP LO PRES WL DVLP OVER SE CANADA...BRINGING A STRONG
AND COLDER NW FLOW THAT WL RESULT IN SOME LK ENHANCED PCPN FOR A
TIME ON FRI NGT. RIGHT NOW...IT APPEARS MOST OF THE PCPN WL FALL AS
RA.

FRI/FRI NGT...STRONG SHRTWV CROSSING THE NRN ROCKIES EARLY THIS MRNG
IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE UPR LKS ON FRI AND MERGE WITH THE
SLUGGIST CLOSED LO NOW OVER THE OH RIVER VALLEY THAT WL BE MOVING
NEWD THRU SE ONTARIO AT THAT TIME. THE RESULT WL BE A DEEPENING SFC
LO PRES NEAR JAMES BAY AND STRENGTHENING NNW WINDS/CAD IN THE UPR
LKS ON FRI AFTN AND NGT. ALTHOUGH THERE WL BE LTL MSTR INFLOW IN
ADVANCE OF THE SHRTWV MOVING IN FM THE W ON FRI THAT WL LIMIT THE
INTENSITY OF THE ACCOMPANYING QVECTOR CNVGC...VIGOROUS NATURE OF
THIS SHRTWV/PVA ACCOMPANIED BY 12HR H5 HGT FALLS UP 100M WL SUPPORT
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NRN CWA ON THE CYC
SIDE OF SHRTWV TRACK AND WHERE MODELS SHOW MORE APPRECIABLE DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC/UPR DVGC. EXPECT THE LOWEST POPS OVER THE SCENTRAL
WITH DOWNSLOPE W VEERING NW LLVL WIND COMPONENT. AS NNW H925 WINDS
INCRSG UP TO 40-45 KTS LATE FRI/FRI NGT DRIVE H85 TEMPS DOWN TO -4
TO -6C ON FRI NGT IN THE PRESENCE OF SOME LINGERING DEEP MSTR ON THE
CYC SIDE OF A REINFORCING SHRTWV DIGGING SSEWD THRU MN...EXPECT A
PERIOD OF LK ENHANCED PCPN THAT MAY FEATURE SOME SN MIXING IN WITH
THE RA AT LEAST OVER THE HIER TERRAIN OF THE NW HALF. WINDS WL
LIKELY AT LEAST APRCH ADVY CRITERIA...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LK SUP
SHORE WITH THE INCRSG INSTABILITY. THE LK PCPN MAY BEGIN TO DIMINISH
TOWARD 12Z SAT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF HGT RISES/MID LVL DRYING/LOWERING
SUBSIDENCE INVRN UNDER THE DNVA IN THE WAKE OF THE UPR TROF SHIFTING
INTO THE ERN LKS. ONE OTHER CONCERN WL BE THE HI WAVES WHIPPED UP ON
LK SUP BY THE STRENGTHENING WINDS ON FRI NGT. SINCE THE LK SUP WATER
LVL HAS RISEN UP TO HALF A FOOT ABV NORMAL...THERE MAY BE SOME BEACH
FLOODING AT THE MORE EXPOSED LOCATIONS.

SAT...THE APRCH OF A SHRTWV RDG AND ACCOMPANYING SFC HI PRES WL
BRING DIMINISHING WINDS AND VIGOROUS MID LVL DRYING THAT WL CAUSE LK
EFFECT PCPN ON SAT MRNG TO END IN THE AFTN IN THE PRESENCE OF
DIURNAL HEATING EVEN IF A GOOD DEAL OF SC LINGERS WITHIN THE LLVL
THERMAL TROF THAT IS PROGGED TO HOLD IN PLACE UNDER SUBSIDENCE INVRN
NEAR H875 WITHIN THE NLY FLOW E OF THE APRCHG RDG AXIS. SOME CLRG IS
LIKELY TO ARRIVE OVER THE W BY LATE IN THE AFTN WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
THE SFC RDG AXIS.

SAT NGT...WITH RDG AXIS PASSING OVHD AND PWAT FCST AS LO AS 0.25
INCH SUPPORTING THE CLRG OF ANY LINGERING LO CLDS...EXPECT TEMPS TO
FALL WELL INTO THE 20S OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF EVEN IF SOME HI CLDS
ARRIVE LATE IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SHRTWV DIGGING SEWD THRU SCENTRAL
CANADA. SINCE LO CLDS WL LINGER LONGER OVER THE E...TEMPS THERE WL
NOT FALL AS FAR.

SUN INTO MON...NEXT SHRTWV DROPPING SEWD AND INTO THE UPR LKS/UPR
MIDWEST BY 12Z MON WL BRING INCRSG CLDS ON SUN AND THE NEXT CHC OF
SHOWERS SUN AFTN INTO MON MRNG. ONCE AGAIN...MSTR INFLOW INTO THIS
DISTURBANCE WL BE LIMITED...BUT FAIRLY VIGOROUS DPVA/QVECTOR CNVGC
WILL BRING AT LEAST SCT SHOWERS BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF HGT RISES/DNVA
IN THE WAKE OF THE SHRTWV SLIPPING TO THE SE DIMINISH THE PCPN
THREAT LATER ON MON. ALL THE PCPN ACCOMPANYING THIS DISTURBANCE WL
BE IN THE FORM OF RA

EXTENDED...ALTHOUGH SOME CLDS AND EVEN A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER ON
MON NGT UNDER LLVL CYC FLOW/LLVL THERMAL TROF LEFT IN THE WAKE OF
THE DEPARTING SHRTWV/SFC LO...BLDG UPR RDG OVER CENTRAL NAMERICA AND
SFC HI PRES IN THE GREAT LKS WL BRING DRY WX TO UPR MI.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 147 PM EDT THU OCT 16 2014

AT KIWD AND KCMX...VFR CONDITIONS INTO TONIGHT...THEN AS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA BEGINS TO CROSS THE AREA
AND WINDS TURN NORTHERLY...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO RAPIDLY DETERIORATE
TO IFR OR EVEN LOWER IN RAIN AND FOG.

AT KSAW...WITH WEAK WINDS INTO TONIGHT AND LACK OF DRY AIR
ADVECTION...LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT KSAW. VSBY SHOULD
FALL BACK TO IFR LATER TONIGHT WITH NIGHTTIME COOLING LEADING TO
MORE SATURATION. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH ON FRIDAY WILL
SWITCH WINDS TO NORTHERLY MID-LATE MORNING WHICH WILL RESULT IN
CONTINUATION OF LOW CLOUDS...AT LEAST AS LOW AS IFR. VSBY MAY
IMPROVE FOR A TIME THOUGH...BEFORE STEADIER RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS
DEVELOP ON FRIDAY AFTN.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 434 AM EDT THU OCT 16 2014

EXPECT LIGHT WINDS INTO EARLY FRI UNDER A RELATIVELY WEAK PRES
GRADIENT. BUT THEN AS A PAIR OF UPPER DISTURBANCES COMBINE ON FRI...
A DEEP LO PRES WILL DEVELOP IN SE CANADA AND BRING INCREASING NNW
WINDS THAT INCREASE TO GALE FORCE/UP TO 40 KTS ON FRI AFTERNOON AND
FRI NIGHT THAT IMPACT ALMOST ALL OF LAKE SUPERIOR INTO NORTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN. ISSUED GALE WATCHES FOR ALL BUT FAR WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR...WHERE THE WINDS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG. AS A HI PRES
RIDGE APPROACHES FROM THE W ON SAT...THE STRONG WINDS WILL DIMINISH
W-E. ALTHOUGH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE/SURFACE LO PRES WILL TRACK ACROSS
THE UPPER LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK...NO STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     LSZ248>251-267.

  GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     LSZ266.

  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT /4 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LSZ162-241>244-263-264.

  GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
     LSZ263>265.

  GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     LSZ244-245.

  GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
     LSZ242-243.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
  GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     LMZ248-250.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JLA
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...KC








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 1006 AM EDT THU OCT 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1003 AM EDT THU OCT 16 2014

...CLOUDS STICKING AROUND BUT DRIZZLE AND FOG SHOULD END THIS
AFTERNOON...

TWEAKED GOING FORECAST MAINLY FOR THE DENSE FOG ALONG SHORELINE OF
WESTERN CWA. LIMITED ADVECTION AS WINDS ARE LIGHT MAY MAKE IT HARD
TO GET RID OF THIS FOG. FOR MOST PART...THICKEST FOG IS OVER THE
LAKE BUT WEB CAMS FROM ASHLAND WI...PORCUPINE MTS...ONTONAGON...AND
EAGLE HARBOR SHOW IT PUSHING JUST INLAND AS WELL. ELSEWHERE...JUST
SEEING SOME LINGERING DRIZZLE OVER PARTS OF CNTRL CWA AND 1-3SM TYPE
FOG. PROBABLY WILL SEE THE DRIZZLE AND FOG DISIPPATE BY EARLY AFTN
BUT THE CLOUDS LIKELY WILL STAY DUE TO THE LACK OF DRY AIR
ADVECTION BENEATH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AROUND H85-H8 PER FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND 12Z RAOBS FM KINL AND KGRB. IMPACT TO TEMPS NOT TOO
LARGE AS HIGHEST READINGS IN THE 50S STILL EXPECTED OVER FAR WEST
CWA WHERE SKIES ARE ALREADY PARTLY CLOUDY ATTM.

NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OF NOTE IS PUSHING ACROSS EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WITH SHARP WIND SHIFT NOTED OVER WESTERN DAKOTAS. SHOULD SEE
SIMILAR WEATHER OVER UPR MICHIGAN ON FRIDAY WITH INCREASING NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS AND MORE RAIN AS THAT DAKOTAS SYSTEM MERGES WITH THE
SYSTEM THAT MOVED ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION EARLIER THIS WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 459 AM EDT THU OCT 16 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTERED OVER IN/OH. MUCH OF THE FCST AREA REMAINS UNDER
CONSIDERABLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE NW SIDE OF THIS FEATURE...AND
KMQT RADAR HAS SHOWN SPOTTY -SHRA/SPRINKLES AT TIMES OVER THE ERN
FCST AREA OVERNIGHT. MUCH OF FAR WRN UPPER MI ENJOYED SUNNY SKIES
YESTERDAY. DURING THE NIGHT...SOME FOG HAS FORMED IN THAT AREA AS
WELL AS SOME LOW CLOUDS FROM PORTIONS OF THE KEWEENAW DOWN ALONG THE
VCNTY OF THE SHORELINE INTO NW WI. UPSTREAM...A RATHER POTENT
LOOKING SHORTWAVE IS MOVING E ACROSS MT WITH ASSOCIATED SFC LOW IN
THE ND/SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA BORDER AREA.

FOR TODAY...SOME -SHRA/SPRINKLES MAY CONTINUE TO APPEAR AT TIMES
THRU THE MID MORNING OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE FCST AREA UNDER
LINGERING WEAK DEEP LAYER FORCING PER QVECTORS. DEEP LAYER QVECTOR
DIVERGENCE THEN TAKES OVER...SO IT APPEARS DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE THE
RULE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTN. BIGGEST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE
CLOUD TRENDS. WITH A LIGHT/VRBL WIND REGIME ACROSS THE AREA TODAY
BTWN SFC LOW IN SRN ONTARIO AND APPROACHING LOW MOVING ALONG
U.S./CANADA BORDER...THERE WILL BE LITTLE ADVECTION OCCURRING.
THUS...A PESSIMISTIC CLOUD FCST APPEARS TO BE THE WAY TO GO. THE W
WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE THE BETTER OPPORTUNITY TO SEE SOME
SUNSHINE...AND THIS SHOULD HELP BOOST TEMPS TO AROUND 60F. WHERE
CLOUDS ARE MORE PERSISTENT...LWR 50S WILL BE MORE COMMON.

TONIGHT...THE POTENT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK INTO NRN MN AND
WILL HELP PICK UP THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY.
AS THIS OCCURS...PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE LATTER FEATURE WILL SWING
BACK TO THE NW WITH LEFT EXIT OF 100KT UPPER JET STREAK ON E SIDE OF
THE LOW ASSISTING PCPN PRODUCTION. MUCH OF THAT PCPN SHOULD PASS BY
TO THE E AND N OF UPPER MI...BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO MENTION SCHC POPS
OVER THE FAR E LATE. MEANWHILE...FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE WILL SPREAD INTO WRN UPPER MI. INITIALLY...DEEP MOISTURE
IN THE COLUMN IS LACKING...SO IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME BEFORE PCPN
DEVELOPS. BEST POTENTIAL FOR PCPN SHOULD COME WITH THE ADDITION OF
LOWER LEVEL FORCING FROM SFC-850MB TROF TRAILING WNW FROM SFC LOW
WHICH SHOULD BE IN THE VCNTY OF CNTRL UPPER MI AT 12Z MON. HAVE THUS
INTRODUCED CHC POPS OVER WRN UPPER LATE TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 AM EDT THU OCT 16 2014

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE MEDIUM/LONG TERM WL FOCUS ON POPS AND
WINDS ON FRI INTO SAT AS A STRONG DISTURBANCE SLIDES THRU THE UPR
LKS AND INTERACTS WITH SLOW MOVING CLOSED LO RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
RECENT INCLEMENT WX OVER THE E HALF OF UPR MI. AS THE DISTURBANCES
PHASE...A DEEP LO PRES WL DVLP OVER SE CANADA...BRINGING A STRONG
AND COLDER NW FLOW THAT WL RESULT IN SOME LK ENHANCED PCPN FOR A
TIME ON FRI NGT. RIGHT NOW...IT APPEARS MOST OF THE PCPN WL FALL AS
RA.

FRI/FRI NGT...STRONG SHRTWV CROSSING THE NRN ROCKIES EARLY THIS MRNG
IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE UPR LKS ON FRI AND MERGE WITH THE
SLUGGIST CLOSED LO NOW OVER THE OH RIVER VALLEY THAT WL BE MOVING
NEWD THRU SE ONTARIO AT THAT TIME. THE RESULT WL BE A DEEPENING SFC
LO PRES NEAR JAMES BAY AND STRENGTHENING NNW WINDS/CAD IN THE UPR
LKS ON FRI AFTN AND NGT. ALTHOUGH THERE WL BE LTL MSTR INFLOW IN
ADVANCE OF THE SHRTWV MOVING IN FM THE W ON FRI THAT WL LIMIT THE
INTENSITY OF THE ACCOMPANYING QVECTOR CNVGC...VIGOROUS NATURE OF
THIS SHRTWV/PVA ACCOMPANIED BY 12HR H5 HGT FALLS UP 100M WL SUPPORT
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NRN CWA ON THE CYC
SIDE OF SHRTWV TRACK AND WHERE MODELS SHOW MORE APPRECIABLE DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC/UPR DVGC. EXPECT THE LOWEST POPS OVER THE SCENTRAL
WITH DOWNSLOPE W VEERING NW LLVL WIND COMPONENT. AS NNW H925 WINDS
INCRSG UP TO 40-45 KTS LATE FRI/FRI NGT DRIVE H85 TEMPS DOWN TO -4
TO -6C ON FRI NGT IN THE PRESENCE OF SOME LINGERING DEEP MSTR ON THE
CYC SIDE OF A REINFORCING SHRTWV DIGGING SSEWD THRU MN...EXPECT A
PERIOD OF LK ENHANCED PCPN THAT MAY FEATURE SOME SN MIXING IN WITH
THE RA AT LEAST OVER THE HIER TERRAIN OF THE NW HALF. WINDS WL
LIKELY AT LEAST APRCH ADVY CRITERIA...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LK SUP
SHORE WITH THE INCRSG INSTABILITY. THE LK PCPN MAY BEGIN TO DIMINISH
TOWARD 12Z SAT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF HGT RISES/MID LVL DRYING/LOWERING
SUBSIDENCE INVRN UNDER THE DNVA IN THE WAKE OF THE UPR TROF SHIFTING
INTO THE ERN LKS. ONE OTHER CONCERN WL BE THE HI WAVES WHIPPED UP ON
LK SUP BY THE STRENGTHENING WINDS ON FRI NGT. SINCE THE LK SUP WATER
LVL HAS RISEN UP TO HALF A FOOT ABV NORMAL...THERE MAY BE SOME BEACH
FLOODING AT THE MORE EXPOSED LOCATIONS.

SAT...THE APRCH OF A SHRTWV RDG AND ACCOMPANYING SFC HI PRES WL
BRING DIMINISHING WINDS AND VIGOROUS MID LVL DRYING THAT WL CAUSE LK
EFFECT PCPN ON SAT MRNG TO END IN THE AFTN IN THE PRESENCE OF
DIURNAL HEATING EVEN IF A GOOD DEAL OF SC LINGERS WITHIN THE LLVL
THERMAL TROF THAT IS PROGGED TO HOLD IN PLACE UNDER SUBSIDENCE INVRN
NEAR H875 WITHIN THE NLY FLOW E OF THE APRCHG RDG AXIS. SOME CLRG IS
LIKELY TO ARRIVE OVER THE W BY LATE IN THE AFTN WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
THE SFC RDG AXIS.

SAT NGT...WITH RDG AXIS PASSING OVHD AND PWAT FCST AS LO AS 0.25
INCH SUPPORTING THE CLRG OF ANY LINGERING LO CLDS...EXPECT TEMPS TO
FALL WELL INTO THE 20S OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF EVEN IF SOME HI CLDS
ARRIVE LATE IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SHRTWV DIGGING SEWD THRU SCENTRAL
CANADA. SINCE LO CLDS WL LINGER LONGER OVER THE E...TEMPS THERE WL
NOT FALL AS FAR.

SUN INTO MON...NEXT SHRTWV DROPPING SEWD AND INTO THE UPR LKS/UPR
MIDWEST BY 12Z MON WL BRING INCRSG CLDS ON SUN AND THE NEXT CHC OF
SHOWERS SUN AFTN INTO MON MRNG. ONCE AGAIN...MSTR INFLOW INTO THIS
DISTURBANCE WL BE LIMITED...BUT FAIRLY VIGOROUS DPVA/QVECTOR CNVGC
WILL BRING AT LEAST SCT SHOWERS BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF HGT RISES/DNVA
IN THE WAKE OF THE SHRTWV SLIPPING TO THE SE DIMINISH THE PCPN
THREAT LATER ON MON. ALL THE PCPN ACCOMPANYING THIS DISTURBANCE WL
BE IN THE FORM OF RA

EXTENDED...ALTHOUGH SOME CLDS AND EVEN A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER ON
MON NGT UNDER LLVL CYC FLOW/LLVL THERMAL TROF LEFT IN THE WAKE OF
THE DEPARTING SHRTWV/SFC LO...BLDG UPR RDG OVER CENTRAL NAMERICA AND
SFC HI PRES IN THE GREAT LKS WL BRING DRY WX TO UPR MI.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 744 AM EDT THU OCT 16 2014

ON THE NW EDGE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY...
CONSIDERABLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO RESULT IN LIFR
CONDITIONS AT KSAW. WITH WEAK WIND FIELDS TODAY AND THUS LITTLE
ADVECTION OCCURRING...LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE KSAW.
DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD HELP RAISE CIGS A LITTLE...TO IFR LATE
MORNING AND THEN TO MVFR THIS AFTN. MAY SEE LIFR CONDITIONS REDEVELOP
LATE TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...AT KIWD AND KCMX...THE MAIN ISSUE HAS BEEN
GROUND FOG TRENDS EARLY THIS MORNING. SURPRISED BOTH TERMINALS HAVE
RECENTLY BECOME VFR AFTER DEALING WITH FOG...BUT BELIEVE THERE STILL
COULD BE SOME FOG OR STRATUS YET EARLY THIS MORNING. THERE IS A MASS
OF LOW CLOUDS JUST E OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...AND AS WINDS BECOME
LIGHT EASTERLY...THESE CLOUDS MAY IMPACT KCMX WITH MVFR AND
POTENTIALLY IFR CIGS LATER THIS MORNING. LOW PRES MOVING INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL LIKELY BRING IFR CONDITIONS TO KIWD/KCMX LATE
TONIGHT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 434 AM EDT THU OCT 16 2014

EXPECT LIGHT WINDS INTO EARLY FRI UNDER A RELATIVELY WEAK PRES
GRADIENT. BUT THEN AS A PAIR OF UPPER DISTURBANCES COMBINE ON FRI...
A DEEP LO PRES WILL DEVELOP IN SE CANADA AND BRING INCREASING NNW
WINDS THAT INCREASE TO GALE FORCE/UP TO 40 KTS ON FRI AFTERNOON AND
FRI NIGHT THAT IMPACT ALMOST ALL OF LAKE SUPERIOR INTO NORTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN. ISSUED GALE WATCHES FOR ALL BUT FAR WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR...WHERE THE WINDS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG. AS A HI PRES
RIDGE APPROACHES FROM THE W ON SAT...THE STRONG WINDS WILL DIMINISH
W-E. ALTHOUGH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE/SURFACE LO PRES WILL TRACK ACROSS
THE UPPER LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK...NO STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     LSZ248>251-267.

  GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     LSZ266.

  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT /11 AM CDT/ TODAY FOR LSZ162-
     240>244-263-264.

  GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
     LSZ263>265.

  GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     LSZ244-245.

  GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
     LSZ242-243.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
  GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     LMZ248-250.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JLA
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC










AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 745 AM EDT THU OCT 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 459 AM EDT THU OCT 16 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTERED OVER IN/OH. MUCH OF THE FCST AREA REMAINS UNDER
CONSIDERABLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE NW SIDE OF THIS FEATURE...AND
KMQT RADAR HAS SHOWN SPOTTY -SHRA/SPRINKLES AT TIMES OVER THE ERN
FCST AREA OVERNIGHT. MUCH OF FAR WRN UPPER MI ENJOYED SUNNY SKIES
YESTERDAY. DURING THE NIGHT...SOME FOG HAS FORMED IN THAT AREA AS
WELL AS SOME LOW CLOUDS FROM PORTIONS OF THE KEWEENAW DOWN ALONG THE
VCNTY OF THE SHORELINE INTO NW WI. UPSTREAM...A RATHER POTENT
LOOKING SHORTWAVE IS MOVING E ACROSS MT WITH ASSOCIATED SFC LOW IN
THE ND/SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA BORDER AREA.

FOR TODAY...SOME -SHRA/SPRINKLES MAY CONTINUE TO APPEAR AT TIMES
THRU THE MID MORNING OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE FCST AREA UNDER
LINGERING WEAK DEEP LAYER FORCING PER QVECTORS. DEEP LAYER QVECTOR
DIVERGENCE THEN TAKES OVER...SO IT APPEARS DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE THE
RULE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTN. BIGGEST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE
CLOUD TRENDS. WITH A LIGHT/VRBL WIND REGIME ACROSS THE AREA TODAY
BTWN SFC LOW IN SRN ONTARIO AND APPROACHING LOW MOVING ALONG
U.S./CANADA BORDER...THERE WILL BE LITTLE ADVECTION OCCURRING.
THUS...A PESSIMISTIC CLOUD FCST APPEARS TO BE THE WAY TO GO. THE W
WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE THE BETTER OPPORTUNITY TO SEE SOME
SUNSHINE...AND THIS SHOULD HELP BOOST TEMPS TO AROUND 60F. WHERE
CLOUDS ARE MORE PERSISTENT...LWR 50S WILL BE MORE COMMON.

TONIGHT...THE POTENT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK INTO NRN MN AND
WILL HELP PICK UP THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY.
AS THIS OCCURS...PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE LATTER FEATURE WILL SWING
BACK TO THE NW WITH LEFT EXIT OF 100KT UPPER JET STREAK ON E SIDE OF
THE LOW ASSISTING PCPN PRODUCTION. MUCH OF THAT PCPN SHOULD PASS BY
TO THE E AND N OF UPPER MI...BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO MENTION SCHC POPS
OVER THE FAR E LATE. MEANWHILE...FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE WILL SPREAD INTO WRN UPPER MI. INITIALLY...DEEP MOISTURE
IN THE COLUMN IS LACKING...SO IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME BEFORE PCPN
DEVELOPS. BEST POTENTIAL FOR PCPN SHOULD COME WITH THE ADDITION OF
LOWER LEVEL FORCING FROM SFC-850MB TROF TRAILING WNW FROM SFC LOW
WHICH SHOULD BE IN THE VCNTY OF CNTRL UPPER MI AT 12Z MON. HAVE THUS
INTRODUCED CHC POPS OVER WRN UPPER LATE TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 AM EDT THU OCT 16 2014

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE MEDIUM/LONG TERM WL FOCUS ON POPS AND
WINDS ON FRI INTO SAT AS A STRONG DISTURBANCE SLIDES THRU THE UPR
LKS AND INTERACTS WITH SLOW MOVING CLOSED LO RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
RECENT INCLEMENT WX OVER THE E HALF OF UPR MI. AS THE DISTURBANCES
PHASE...A DEEP LO PRES WL DVLP OVER SE CANADA...BRINGING A STRONG
AND COLDER NW FLOW THAT WL RESULT IN SOME LK ENHANCED PCPN FOR A
TIME ON FRI NGT. RIGHT NOW...IT APPEARS MOST OF THE PCPN WL FALL AS
RA.

FRI/FRI NGT...STRONG SHRTWV CROSSING THE NRN ROCKIES EARLY THIS MRNG
IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE UPR LKS ON FRI AND MERGE WITH THE
SLUGGIST CLOSED LO NOW OVER THE OH RIVER VALLEY THAT WL BE MOVING
NEWD THRU SE ONTARIO AT THAT TIME. THE RESULT WL BE A DEEPENING SFC
LO PRES NEAR JAMES BAY AND STRENGTHENING NNW WINDS/CAD IN THE UPR
LKS ON FRI AFTN AND NGT. ALTHOUGH THERE WL BE LTL MSTR INFLOW IN
ADVANCE OF THE SHRTWV MOVING IN FM THE W ON FRI THAT WL LIMIT THE
INTENSITY OF THE ACCOMPANYING QVECTOR CNVGC...VIGOROUS NATURE OF
THIS SHRTWV/PVA ACCOMPANIED BY 12HR H5 HGT FALLS UP 100M WL SUPPORT
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NRN CWA ON THE CYC
SIDE OF SHRTWV TRACK AND WHERE MODELS SHOW MORE APPRECIABLE DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC/UPR DVGC. EXPECT THE LOWEST POPS OVER THE SCENTRAL
WITH DOWNSLOPE W VEERING NW LLVL WIND COMPONENT. AS NNW H925 WINDS
INCRSG UP TO 40-45 KTS LATE FRI/FRI NGT DRIVE H85 TEMPS DOWN TO -4
TO -6C ON FRI NGT IN THE PRESENCE OF SOME LINGERING DEEP MSTR ON THE
CYC SIDE OF A REINFORCING SHRTWV DIGGING SSEWD THRU MN...EXPECT A
PERIOD OF LK ENHANCED PCPN THAT MAY FEATURE SOME SN MIXING IN WITH
THE RA AT LEAST OVER THE HIER TERRAIN OF THE NW HALF. WINDS WL
LIKELY AT LEAST APRCH ADVY CRITERIA...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LK SUP
SHORE WITH THE INCRSG INSTABILITY. THE LK PCPN MAY BEGIN TO DIMINISH
TOWARD 12Z SAT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF HGT RISES/MID LVL DRYING/LOWERING
SUBSIDENCE INVRN UNDER THE DNVA IN THE WAKE OF THE UPR TROF SHIFTING
INTO THE ERN LKS. ONE OTHER CONCERN WL BE THE HI WAVES WHIPPED UP ON
LK SUP BY THE STRENGTHENING WINDS ON FRI NGT. SINCE THE LK SUP WATER
LVL HAS RISEN UP TO HALF A FOOT ABV NORMAL...THERE MAY BE SOME BEACH
FLOODING AT THE MORE EXPOSED LOCATIONS.

SAT...THE APRCH OF A SHRTWV RDG AND ACCOMPANYING SFC HI PRES WL
BRING DIMINISHING WINDS AND VIGOROUS MID LVL DRYING THAT WL CAUSE LK
EFFECT PCPN ON SAT MRNG TO END IN THE AFTN IN THE PRESENCE OF
DIURNAL HEATING EVEN IF A GOOD DEAL OF SC LINGERS WITHIN THE LLVL
THERMAL TROF THAT IS PROGGED TO HOLD IN PLACE UNDER SUBSIDENCE INVRN
NEAR H875 WITHIN THE NLY FLOW E OF THE APRCHG RDG AXIS. SOME CLRG IS
LIKELY TO ARRIVE OVER THE W BY LATE IN THE AFTN WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
THE SFC RDG AXIS.

SAT NGT...WITH RDG AXIS PASSING OVHD AND PWAT FCST AS LO AS 0.25
INCH SUPPORTING THE CLRG OF ANY LINGERING LO CLDS...EXPECT TEMPS TO
FALL WELL INTO THE 20S OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF EVEN IF SOME HI CLDS
ARRIVE LATE IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SHRTWV DIGGING SEWD THRU SCENTRAL
CANADA. SINCE LO CLDS WL LINGER LONGER OVER THE E...TEMPS THERE WL
NOT FALL AS FAR.

SUN INTO MON...NEXT SHRTWV DROPPING SEWD AND INTO THE UPR LKS/UPR
MIDWEST BY 12Z MON WL BRING INCRSG CLDS ON SUN AND THE NEXT CHC OF
SHOWERS SUN AFTN INTO MON MRNG. ONCE AGAIN...MSTR INFLOW INTO THIS
DISTURBANCE WL BE LIMITED...BUT FAIRLY VIGOROUS DPVA/QVECTOR CNVGC
WILL BRING AT LEAST SCT SHOWERS BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF HGT RISES/DNVA
IN THE WAKE OF THE SHRTWV SLIPPING TO THE SE DIMINISH THE PCPN
THREAT LATER ON MON. ALL THE PCPN ACCOMPANYING THIS DISTURBANCE WL
BE IN THE FORM OF RA

EXTENDED...ALTHOUGH SOME CLDS AND EVEN A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER ON
MON NGT UNDER LLVL CYC FLOW/LLVL THERMAL TROF LEFT IN THE WAKE OF
THE DEPARTING SHRTWV/SFC LO...BLDG UPR RDG OVER CENTRAL NAMERICA AND
SFC HI PRES IN THE GREAT LKS WL BRING DRY WX TO UPR MI.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 744 AM EDT THU OCT 16 2014

ON THE NW EDGE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY...
CONSIDERABLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO RESULT IN LIFR
CONDITIONS AT KSAW. WITH WEAK WIND FIELDS TODAY AND THUS LITTLE
ADVECTION OCCURRING...LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE KSAW.
DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD HELP RAISE CIGS A LITTLE...TO IFR LATE
MORNING AND THEN TO MVFR THIS AFTN. MAY SEE LIFR CONDITIONS REDEVELOP
LATE TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...AT KIWD AND KCMX...THE MAIN ISSUE HAS BEEN
GROUND FOG TRENDS EARLY THIS MORNING. SURPRISED BOTH TERMINALS HAVE
RECENTLY BECOME VFR AFTER DEALING WITH FOG...BUT BELIEVE THERE STILL
COULD BE SOME FOG OR STRATUS YET EARLY THIS MORNING. THERE IS A MASS
OF LOW CLOUDS JUST E OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...AND AS WINDS BECOME
LIGHT EASTERLY...THESE CLOUDS MAY IMPACT KCMX WITH MVFR AND
POTENTIALLY IFR CIGS LATER THIS MORNING. LOW PRES MOVING INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL LIKELY BRING IFR CONDITIONS TO KIWD/KCMX LATE
TONIGHT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 434 AM EDT THU OCT 16 2014

EXPECT LIGHT WINDS INTO EARLY FRI UNDER A RELATIVELY WEAK PRES
GRADIENT. BUT THEN AS A PAIR OF UPPER DISTURBANCES COMBINE ON FRI...
A DEEP LO PRES WILL DEVELOP IN SE CANADA AND BRING INCREASING NNW
WINDS THAT INCREASE TO GALE FORCE/UP TO 40 KTS ON FRI AFTERNOON AND
FRI NIGHT THAT IMPACT ALMOST ALL OF LAKE SUPERIOR INTO NORTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN. ISSUED GALE WATCHES FOR ALL BUT FAR WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR...WHERE THE WINDS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG. AS A HI PRES
RIDGE APPROACHES FROM THE W ON SAT...THE STRONG WINDS WILL DIMINISH
W-E. ALTHOUGH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE/SURFACE LO PRES WILL TRACK ACROSS
THE UPPER LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK...NO STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     LSZ248>251-267.

  GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     LSZ266.

  GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
     LSZ263>265.

  GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     LSZ244-245.

  GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
     LSZ242-243.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
  GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     LMZ248-250.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 501 AM EDT THU OCT 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 459 AM EDT THU OCT 16 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTERED OVER IN/OH. MUCH OF THE FCST AREA REMAINS UNDER
CONSIDERABLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE NW SIDE OF THIS FEATURE...AND
KMQT RADAR HAS SHOWN SPOTTY -SHRA/SPRINKLES AT TIMES OVER THE ERN
FCST AREA OVERNIGHT. MUCH OF FAR WRN UPPER MI ENJOYED SUNNY SKIES
YESTERDAY. DURING THE NIGHT...SOME FOG HAS FORMED IN THAT AREA AS
WELL AS SOME LOW CLOUDS FROM PORTIONS OF THE KEWEENAW DOWN ALONG THE
VCNTY OF THE SHORELINE INTO NW WI. UPSTREAM...A RATHER POTENT
LOOKING SHORTWAVE IS MOVING E ACROSS MT WITH ASSOCIATED SFC LOW IN
THE ND/SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA BORDER AREA.

FOR TODAY...SOME -SHRA/SPRINKLES MAY CONTINUE TO APPEAR AT TIMES
THRU THE MID MORNING OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE FCST AREA UNDER
LINGERING WEAK DEEP LAYER FORCING PER QVECTORS. DEEP LAYER QVECTOR
DIVERGENCE THEN TAKES OVER...SO IT APPEARS DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE THE
RULE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTN. BIGGEST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE
CLOUD TRENDS. WITH A LIGHT/VRBL WIND REGIME ACROSS THE AREA TODAY
BTWN SFC LOW IN SRN ONTARIO AND APPROACHING LOW MOVING ALONG
U.S./CANADA BORDER...THERE WILL BE LITTLE ADVECTION OCCURRING.
THUS...A PESSIMISTIC CLOUD FCST APPEARS TO BE THE WAY TO GO. THE W
WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE THE BETTER OPPORTUNITY TO SEE SOME
SUNSHINE...AND THIS SHOULD HELP BOOST TEMPS TO AROUND 60F. WHERE
CLOUDS ARE MORE PERSISTENT...LWR 50S WILL BE MORE COMMON.

TONIGHT...THE POTENT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK INTO NRN MN AND
WILL HELP PICK UP THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY.
AS THIS OCCURS...PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE LATTER FEATURE WILL SWING
BACK TO THE NW WITH LEFT EXIT OF 100KT UPPER JET STREAK ON E SIDE OF
THE LOW ASSISTING PCPN PRODUCTION. MUCH OF THAT PCPN SHOULD PASS BY
TO THE E AND N OF UPPER MI...BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO MENTION SCHC POPS
OVER THE FAR E LATE. MEANWHILE...FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE WILL SPREAD INTO WRN UPPER MI. INITIALLY...DEEP MOISTURE
IN THE COLUMN IS LACKING...SO IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME BEFORE PCPN
DEVELOPS. BEST POTENTIAL FOR PCPN SHOULD COME WITH THE ADDITION OF
LOWER LEVEL FORCING FROM SFC-850MB TROF TRAILING WNW FROM SFC LOW
WHICH SHOULD BE IN THE VCNTY OF CNTRL UPPER MI AT 12Z MON. HAVE THUS
INTRODUCED CHC POPS OVER WRN UPPER LATE TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 AM EDT THU OCT 16 2014

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE MEDIUM/LONG TERM WL FOCUS ON POPS AND
WINDS ON FRI INTO SAT AS A STRONG DISTURBANCE SLIDES THRU THE UPR
LKS AND INTERACTS WITH SLOW MOVING CLOSED LO RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
RECENT INCLEMENT WX OVER THE E HALF OF UPR MI. AS THE DISTURBANCES
PHASE...A DEEP LO PRES WL DVLP OVER SE CANADA...BRINGING A STRONG
AND COLDER NW FLOW THAT WL RESULT IN SOME LK ENHANCED PCPN FOR A
TIME ON FRI NGT. RIGHT NOW...IT APPEARS MOST OF THE PCPN WL FALL AS
RA.

FRI/FRI NGT...STRONG SHRTWV CROSSING THE NRN ROCKIES EARLY THIS MRNG
IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE UPR LKS ON FRI AND MERGE WITH THE
SLUGGIST CLOSED LO NOW OVER THE OH RIVER VALLEY THAT WL BE MOVING
NEWD THRU SE ONTARIO AT THAT TIME. THE RESULT WL BE A DEEPENING SFC
LO PRES NEAR JAMES BAY AND STRENGTHENING NNW WINDS/CAD IN THE UPR
LKS ON FRI AFTN AND NGT. ALTHOUGH THERE WL BE LTL MSTR INFLOW IN
ADVANCE OF THE SHRTWV MOVING IN FM THE W ON FRI THAT WL LIMIT THE
INTENSITY OF THE ACCOMPANYING QVECTOR CNVGC...VIGOROUS NATURE OF
THIS SHRTWV/PVA ACCOMPANIED BY 12HR H5 HGT FALLS UP 100M WL SUPPORT
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NRN CWA ON THE CYC
SIDE OF SHRTWV TRACK AND WHERE MODELS SHOW MORE APPRECIABLE DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC/UPR DVGC. EXPECT THE LOWEST POPS OVER THE SCENTRAL
WITH DOWNSLOPE W VEERING NW LLVL WIND COMPONENT. AS NNW H925 WINDS
INCRSG UP TO 40-45 KTS LATE FRI/FRI NGT DRIVE H85 TEMPS DOWN TO -4
TO -6C ON FRI NGT IN THE PRESENCE OF SOME LINGERING DEEP MSTR ON THE
CYC SIDE OF A REINFORCING SHRTWV DIGGING SSEWD THRU MN...EXPECT A
PERIOD OF LK ENHANCED PCPN THAT MAY FEATURE SOME SN MIXING IN WITH
THE RA AT LEAST OVER THE HIER TERRAIN OF THE NW HALF. WINDS WL
LIKELY AT LEAST APRCH ADVY CRITERIA...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LK SUP
SHORE WITH THE INCRSG INSTABILITY. THE LK PCPN MAY BEGIN TO DIMINISH
TOWARD 12Z SAT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF HGT RISES/MID LVL DRYING/LOWERING
SUBSIDENCE INVRN UNDER THE DNVA IN THE WAKE OF THE UPR TROF SHIFTING
INTO THE ERN LKS. ONE OTHER CONCERN WL BE THE HI WAVES WHIPPED UP ON
LK SUP BY THE STRENGTHENING WINDS ON FRI NGT. SINCE THE LK SUP WATER
LVL HAS RISEN UP TO HALF A FOOT ABV NORMAL...THERE MAY BE SOME BEACH
FLOODING AT THE MORE EXPOSED LOCATIONS.

SAT...THE APRCH OF A SHRTWV RDG AND ACCOMPANYING SFC HI PRES WL
BRING DIMINISHING WINDS AND VIGOROUS MID LVL DRYING THAT WL CAUSE LK
EFFECT PCPN ON SAT MRNG TO END IN THE AFTN IN THE PRESENCE OF
DIURNAL HEATING EVEN IF A GOOD DEAL OF SC LINGERS WITHIN THE LLVL
THERMAL TROF THAT IS PROGGED TO HOLD IN PLACE UNDER SUBSIDENCE INVRN
NEAR H875 WITHIN THE NLY FLOW E OF THE APRCHG RDG AXIS. SOME CLRG IS
LIKELY TO ARRIVE OVER THE W BY LATE IN THE AFTN WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
THE SFC RDG AXIS.

SAT NGT...WITH RDG AXIS PASSING OVHD AND PWAT FCST AS LO AS 0.25
INCH SUPPORTING THE CLRG OF ANY LINGERING LO CLDS...EXPECT TEMPS TO
FALL WELL INTO THE 20S OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF EVEN IF SOME HI CLDS
ARRIVE LATE IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SHRTWV DIGGING SEWD THRU SCENTRAL
CANADA. SINCE LO CLDS WL LINGER LONGER OVER THE E...TEMPS THERE WL
NOT FALL AS FAR.

SUN INTO MON...NEXT SHRTWV DROPPING SEWD AND INTO THE UPR LKS/UPR
MIDWEST BY 12Z MON WL BRING INCRSG CLDS ON SUN AND THE NEXT CHC OF
SHOWERS SUN AFTN INTO MON MRNG. ONCE AGAIN...MSTR INFLOW INTO THIS
DISTURBANCE WL BE LIMITED...BUT FAIRLY VIGOROUS DPVA/QVECTOR CNVGC
WILL BRING AT LEAST SCT SHOWERS BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF HGT RISES/DNVA
IN THE WAKE OF THE SHRTWV SLIPPING TO THE SE DIMINISH THE PCPN
THREAT LATER ON MON. ALL THE PCPN ACCOMPANYING THIS DISTURBANCE WL
BE IN THE FORM OF RA

EXTENDED...ALTHOUGH SOME CLDS AND EVEN A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER ON
MON NGT UNDER LLVL CYC FLOW/LLVL THERMAL TROF LEFT IN THE WAKE OF
THE DEPARTING SHRTWV/SFC LO...BLDG UPR RDG OVER CENTRAL NAMERICA AND
SFC HI PRES IN THE GREAT LKS WL BRING DRY WX TO UPR MI.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT THU OCT 16 2014

A WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE OVER INDIANA INTO LOWER MICHIGAN WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING LOW CLOUDS/VSBY INTO KSAW. EXPECT LIFR AND
POSSIBLY VLIFR CONDITIONS DUE TO PERSISTENT MOIST AND COOL
NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR BENEATH INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING ALOFT. VERY LOW CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE
INTO MID MORNING. MEANWHILE...AT KIWD AND KCMX...THE MAIN ISSUE WILL
BE GROUND FOG TRENDS INTO THE MORNING HRS AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
MOVES OVER WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN. EXPECT THAT THE SHALLOW AND VARIABLE
AT TIMES GROUND FOG AT IWD WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY BY AROUND 14Z. THERE
IS ALSO LOWER CONFIDENCE AT CMX BUT SUSPECT THAT SOME REDUCTION IN
VSBY TO AT LEAST MVFR IS ALSO LIKELY OVERNIGHT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 434 AM EDT THU OCT 16 2014

EXPECT LIGHT WINDS INTO EARLY FRI UNDER A RELATIVELY WEAK PRES
GRADIENT. BUT THEN AS A PAIR OF UPPER DISTURBANCES COMBINE ON FRI...
A DEEP LO PRES WILL DEVELOP IN SE CANADA AND BRING INCREASING NNW
WINDS THAT INCREASE TO GALE FORCE/UP TO 40 KTS ON FRI AFTERNOON AND
FRI NIGHT THAT IMPACT ALMOST ALL OF LAKE SUPERIOR INTO NORTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN. ISSUED GALE WATCHES FOR ALL BUT FAR WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR...WHERE THE WINDS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG. AS A HI PRES
RIDGE APPROACHES FROM THE W ON SAT...THE STRONG WINDS WILL DIMINISH
W-E. ALTHOUGH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE/SURFACE LO PRES WILL TRACK ACROSS
THE UPPER LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK...NO STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     LSZ248>251-267.

  GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     LSZ266.

  GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
     LSZ263>265.

  GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     LSZ244-245.

  GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
     LSZ242-243.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
  GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     LMZ248-250.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...KC







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE

 255 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2014

TEMPERATURES WILL PROVIDE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES INTO THE MID
PART OF NEXT WEEK. THERE IS SOME CHANCE OF PCPN BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY.

AN IMPRESSIVE 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS NOTED OVER THE DAKOTAS
WITH 12 HR HEIGHT FALLS OF ABOUT 150 METERS OVER WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA THIS MORNING. LATEST RUC INITIALIZATION IN COMBINATION WITH
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED THE CENTER OF THE CIRCULATION WAS OVER
NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME LIGHTNING STRIKES
WERE NOTED JUST AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE.

850 MB CHART FROM 12Z THIS MORNING SHOWED A THERMAL RIDGE FROM WEST
TEXAS UP INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. THIS HAS ALREADY BEEN SHIFTING
SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA AS OF MID AFTERNOON. FAIRLY DEEP
MIXING ALONG/BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA HELPED
PUSH TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE 70S...BUT COOLING WAS ALREADY TAKING
PLACE IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. MODEST LOW LEVEL GRADIENT TONIGHT MAY
HELP KEEP WINDS UP...SO RAISED THEM A BIT COMPARED TO LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE. THE AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS CURRENTLY OFF TO OUR
NORTH MAY MOVE INTO OUR NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES LATER
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING (MOSTLY NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM ALBION
TO FREMONT AND RED OAK).

OTHERWISE...WE LOOK FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES (COMPARED TO TODAY) FOR
BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS BUILDS INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT SO KEPT LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER AND MID 30S (AT OR
BELOW MOS GUIDANCE). SURFACE WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
AND INCREASE LATER SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING...THEN ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA SHIFTING WINDS TO THE
NORTH OR NORTHWEST. GOOD MIXING WITH THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH HIGHS
INTO THE 60S MOST AREAS WITH SOME HIGHS AROUND 70 WESTERN ZONES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2014

THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY AT THE BEGINNING BUT MAY TURN
WET BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY.

LATEST MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE
PATTERN AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...WITH A 500 MB RIDGE FROM
WYOMING UP INTO ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN. A CLOSED LOW WILL BE
NEAR THE ARIZONA/CALIFORNIA/MEXICO BORDER REGION AND A TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM ALASKA DOWN TO NEAR 30 N 135 W. SOME
ENERGY WILL MOVE EAST OUT OF THAT TROUGH IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC
AND BE OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION BY WEDNESDAY. THIS
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL PROVIDE OUT NEXT GOOD CHANCE FOR PCPN. ALTHOUGH
THE MODELS ARE NOT IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT BY THAT TIME (GFS IS WET
FOR OUR AREA WHILE THE ECMWF HOLDS THE PCPN MAINLY TO OUR WEST)...
THE GENERAL PATTERN SUGGESTS LOW CHANCE CATEGORY POPS ARE NEEDED
FOR NOW. HIGHS FROM MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY 60S
TO LOWER 790S WITH LOWS IN THE 40S OR UPPER 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2014

LATEST SFC OBS REVEALING A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM ERN SD TO WRN
KS WAS BEGINNING TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO ERN NEB. KOFK WINDS HAVE
ALREADY SHIFTED TO THE NW...AND SAME EXPECTED AT KOMA/KLNK WITHIN
THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. TIGHT SFC PRES GRADIENT OVER THE REGION
WILL KEEP WINDS GUSTY THE REST OF THIS AFTN. EXPECT NW WIND GUST
TO RAMP UP AGAIN EARLY FRI MORNING WHEN PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP
AGAIN.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...DEE




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BURLINGTON VT

 1035 AM EDT THU OCT 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A MOISTURE LADEN OCCLUDED FRONT AND ASSOCIATED RAINBAND WILL SHIFT
SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD FROM NEW YORK ACROSS VERMONT TODAY. PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL AMOUNT TO 1 TO 2 INCHES OF TOTAL
RAINFALL BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED
OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH BRINGS A RETURN TO
COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL COOL SUFFICIENTLY FOR HIGHER SUMMIT SNOW
SHOWERS BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH A LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER PEAKS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1018 AM EDT THURSDAY...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE TO CRNT FCST
WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES IMPACTING MUCH OF OUR CWA.
WATER VAPOR SHOWS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE FEED ACRS OUR THE NE
CONUS...WITH WELL DEFINED DRY SLOT NOW PUSHING INTO CENTRAL NY.
THIS WL TAKE ALL DAY AND MOST OF TONIGHT TO MOVE EAST OUR CWA...SO
EXPECT OCCASIONAL RAIN HEAVY AT TIMES TO CONTINUE...WITH A SLOW
WEST TO EAST DRYING TREND BY LATE THIS AFTN/EVENING. TOTAL QPF
AMOUNTS WL BE HIGHLY TRRN DEPEND WITH OVER 2.0 LIKELY ACRS THE SE
UPSLOPE SECTIONS OF THE GREEN MTNS FROM LUDLOW TO NORTHFIELD AND
BTWN 0.75 AND 1.50 INCHES OVER THE EASTERN DACKS AND PARTS OF THE
CPV...AND NEAR 1.0 FOR THE SLV/WESTERN DACKS. INITIALLY SOME
SHADOWING WL OCCUR ACRS THE NEK ASSOCIATED WITH SE FLW...BUT GIVEN
DEPTH OF MOISTURE AND AVAILABLE DYNAMICS WITH CLOSED SYSTEM...MANY
LOCATIONS WL GET BTWN 0.75 AND 1.50" BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

RADAR/OBS SHOW INITIAL BAND OF RAIN ACRS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
CPV...HAS PRODUCED HRLY RAINFALL RATES OF UP TO 1.0 PER
HOUR...WITH PAWLET VT GETTING 0.92 INCHES BTWN 8 AND 9 AM THIS
MORNING. THESE RATES MAY CAUSE MINOR LOW LYING AND POOR URBAN
DRAINAGE FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IF FALLEN LEAVES CLOG THE STORM
DRAINGES. OTHERWISE...GIVEN RECENT DRY SPELL WITH MANY LOCATIONS
BTWN 2 AND 4 INCHES BELOW NORMAL...THIS IS A WELCOME RAINFALL.
LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH THE
CLOUDS/PRECIP...MAINLY 60S TO L70S.

ITS BEEN NOTED THE 12Z RAOB SOUNDING FROM ALBANY THE PW VALUES WAS
1.80...WHICH IS 239% OF NORMAL AND 3 STD ABOVE NORMAL...PLENTY OF
MOISTURE AVAILABLE.

SPC MESOANALYSIS BASED ON RAP MODEL SHOWS PW PLUME OF 1.6-1.8"
FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EXTENDING NNWWD ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND
ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND NEW YORK. THE FRONTAL RAINBAND WILL
PRODUCE PERIODS OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN...WHILE
GRADUALLY SHIFTING FROM NY/CHAMPLAIN VALLEY THIS MORNING INTO
CENTRAL/ERN VERMONT LATER IN THE DAY. POPS NEAR 100 PERCENT. WILL
SEE AREAS OF 1-1.5" RAINFALL BY EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH HIGHEST
TOTALS ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS WITH SFC-900MB SELY
UPSLOPE ENHANCING RAINFALL AMOUNTS A BIT. AT THE SAME TIME...THERE
WILL BE SOME DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND ALONG
THE NRN SLOPES OF THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE SOME LULLS IN THE
PRECIPITATION CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS BREEZY AS RECENT DAYS...GENERALLY
SELY AROUND 10 MPH. SOME LOCALIZED DOWNSLOPE FLOW IS POSSIBLE
ALONG THE WRN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE WESTERN SLOPES. RELATIVELY STABLE BOUNDARY
LAYER OWING TO RAINFALL WILL GENERALLY PRECLUDE ANY HIGHER WIND
GUST POTENTIAL AND KEEP THE FOOTPRINT OF ANY STRONGER GUSTS
RELATIVELY SMALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 318 AM EDT THURSDAY...
TONIGHT...SURFACE OCCLUDED FRONT SHIFTS SLOWLY NEWD ACROSS
CENTRAL/NERN VT TONIGHT. WILL SEE STEADY RAINFALL GRADUALLY WORK ITS
WAY OUT OF CENTRAL/ERN VT BY MIDNIGHT OR SO...WITH JUST SOME
SPRINKLES/ISOLD SHOWERS IN THE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS NRN NY
AND WRN VT. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-2" STILL LOOK ON
TRACK. WITH DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS AND RIVERS RUNNING NEAR BASE
LEVELS...ONLY LOOKING FOR MINOR FIELD AND STREET FLOODING IN
FOCUSED AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN. LEAVES CAN SOMETIMES CLOG STORM DRAINS
ADDING TO A BIT OF STREET FLOODING...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC
IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
REMAIN SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE MID-OCTOBER AVERAGES WITH READINGS MOSTLY
IN THE MID-UPR 50S (15-20 DEG ABOVE NORMAL).

FRIDAY...OCCLUSION SHIFTS INTO MAINE WITH MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT AND
BROAD SWLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
MAY SEE A FEW ISOLD RAIN SHOWERS REACHING NRN NY FROM LAKE
ONTARIO...BUT OTHERWISE LOOKING INTERVALS OF CLOUDS/SUN. STILL +7 TO
+8C AT 850MB IN SW FLOW REGIME AND TEMPERATURES - WHILE NOT AS WARM
AS RECENT DAYS - WILL STILL REACH THE MID-UPR 60S FOR MOST VALLEY
SECTIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE A BIT GUSTY AT TIMES WITH
SW GRADIENT FLOW...GENERALLY 10-15 MPH WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS OF 20-30
MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT...DEEP-LAYER SWLY FLOW REMAINS AND STRENGTHENS
IN ADVANCE OF A DIGGING TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/SERN ONTARIO.
PROBABLY LOOKING AT A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR LAKE CHAMPLAIN AS
P-GRADIENT INCREASES. WELL-MIXED PBL SHOULD KEEP THINGS FAIRLY MILD
WITH LOWS IN THE UPR 40S TO MID 50S (WARMEST IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY). SHOULD SEE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS VERMONT...BUT AN
INCREASE TO MOSTLY CLOUDY/CLOUDY CONDITIONS IN ADVANCE OF
APPROACHING MID-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS NRN NY. MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS
DEVELOP DURING THE PRE-DAWN HRS ACROSS OUR NY COUNTIES AS WELL...AND
WILL INDICATE 20-40 POPS FOR WESTERN ZONES.

FOR SATURDAY...IT APPEARS THAT A RATHER VIGOROUS REINFORCING
MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT EWD INTO THE
NORTH COUNTRY. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS ACROSS
THE VALLEYS OF S-CENTRAL VERMONT...UP TO 0.25" ACROSS THE NRN
MOUNTAINS. GIVEN CONSISTENCY IN NWP GUIDANCE SUITE, WILL CARRY 70-80
POPS ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE VALLEYS OF CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
EARLY AFTERNOON MAXES OF LOW-MID 60S ACROSS VERMONT...BUT LIKELY
REMAINING IN THE MID-UPR 50S WITH EARLIER FRONTAL WIND SHIFT AND
LOW-LEVEL CAA OFFSETTING DIURNAL TRENDS DURING THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 318 AM EDT THURSDAY...A BRUTAL CHANGE WITH TEMPERATURES SOME
20-25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THIS PAST TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TO PERHAPS
5+ DEGS BLO NORMAL BY SUNDAY WITH BLUSTERY COLD RAIN SHOWERS IN
VLYS BUT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS PSBL.

CORE OF THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NORTHEAST WITH A STRONG COLD
FRONT TRACKING THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY SATURDAY AFTN-SATURDAY
NIGHT AND THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINING ACRS FA THRU SUNDAY. THIS WILL
SUPPORT ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS WITH P-TYPE
LIKELY CHANGING TO SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AS 925-850MB
TEMPS CRASH BELOW 0C FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

MONDAY...BROAD NW CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES WITH SOME WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING FOR MONDAY...THUS RELATIVELY DRY BUT AOB
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

TUESDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND SFC WAVE EVENTUALLY RESULTING INTO
ANOTHER CLOSED UPPER LOW WITH SOME COASTAL DEVELOPMENT. ATTM...MAIN
SHIELD OF PCPN SHOULD REMAIN ESE OF FA BUT TROF AXIS ACROSS CWA THUS
CANT RULE OUT SOME INSTABILTY VLY SHRA AND PERHAPS MTN SHSN.

THEREAFTER...HIGH PRESSURE FROM QUEBEC DOWN THROUGH GREAT LAKES
BUILD INTO FA BUT REMAINING ON THE SEASONABLY COOL SIDE FOR WED.

IN REGARDS TO TEMPS...MORE FALL-LIKE TEMPS RETURN WITH HIGHS
SUN/MON/TUE ONLY IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S AND LOWS IN THE 20S AND
30S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/RAIN HAS MOVED INTO
FA AS ADVERTISED WITH CONTINUED PLUME OF SHOWERS OFFSHORE OF NC
COAST HEADED TOWARD ERN VT/NEW ENGLAND. GRADUAL WEST TO EAST
MOVEMENT WITH SHRA ENDING IN NY BY ERLY-MID AFTN...CHMPL VLY MID-
LATE AFTN AND CT RVR VLY POSSIBLY AS LATE AS 06Z FRI.

MDL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN WAY TOO PESSIMISTIC WITH IFR CIGS THE LAST
FEW DAYS AND BASED ON CURRENT AND UPSTREAM OBS HAVE BROUGHT VFR
LOWERING TO MVFR WITH SCT IFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER SHRA ACTIVITY
AND THEN PERHAPS SCT IFR OVERNIGHT AT KMPV.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THRU THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... DRYING ON FRIDAY WITH MAINLY
VFR CONDS. ANOTHER FRNT WL PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
SATURDAY...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY SAT AFTN/EVENING. A WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST WL OCCUR SAT NIGHT BEHIND THIS FRNT WITH A FEW MTN SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT SLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/TABER
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SLW








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BURLINGTON VT

 727 AM EDT THU OCT 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A MOISTURE LADEN OCCLUDED FRONT AND ASSOCIATED RAINBAND WILL SHIFT
SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD FROM NEW YORK ACROSS VERMONT TODAY. PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL AMOUNT TO 1 TO 2 INCHES OF TOTAL
RAINFALL BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED
OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH BRINGS A RETURN TO
COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL COOL SUFFICIENTLY FOR HIGHER SUMMIT SNOW
SHOWERS BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH A LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER PEAKS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 318 AM EDT THURSDAY...SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOW AND LEADING
OCCLUDED FRONTAL BOUNDARY FINALLY MAKING THEIR WAY NEWD INTO THE
NORTH COUNTRY THIS MORNING. LOOKING AT OVERCAST CONDITIONS AND
VERY MILD/MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE GIVEN THE PROLONGED FETCH OF
SOUTHERLY FLOW DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS (INCLUDING RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES OF 79F AND 80F ON 10/14 AND 10/15, RESPECTIVELY).
DAYTIME TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 70S TODAY AREAWIDE.

SPC MESOANALYSIS BASED ON RAP MODEL SHOWS PW PLUME OF 1.6-1.8"
FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EXTENDING NNWWD ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND
ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND NEW YORK. THE FRONTAL RAINBAND WILL
PRODUCE PERIODS OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN...WHILE
GRADUALLY SHIFTING FROM NY/CHAMPLAIN VALLEY THIS MORNING INTO
CENTRAL/ERN VERMONT LATER IN THE DAY. POPS NEAR 100 PERCENT. WILL
SEE AREAS OF 1-1.5" RAINFALL BY EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH HIGHEST
TOTALS ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS WITH SFC-900MB SELY
UPSLOPE ENHANCING RAINFALL AMOUNTS A BIT. AT THE SAME TIME...THERE
WILL BE SOME DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND ALONG
THE NRN SLOPES OF THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE SOME LULLS IN THE
PRECIPITATION CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS BREEZY AS RECENT DAYS...GENERALLY
SELY AROUND 10 MPH. SOME LOCALIZED DOWNSLOPE FLOW IS POSSIBLE
ALONG THE WRN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE WESTERN SLOPES. RELATIVELY STABLE BOUNDARY
LAYER OWING TO RAINFALL WILL GENERALLY PRECLUDE ANY HIGHER WIND
GUST POTENTIAL AND KEEP THE FOOTPRINT OF ANY STRONGER GUSTS
RELATIVELY SMALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 318 AM EDT THURSDAY...
TONIGHT...SURFACE OCCLUDED FRONT SHIFTS SLOWLY NEWD ACROSS
CENTRAL/NERN VT TONIGHT. WILL SEE STEADY RAINFALL GRADUALLY WORK ITS
WAY OUT OF CENTRAL/ERN VT BY MIDNIGHT OR SO...WITH JUST SOME
SPRINKLES/ISOLD SHOWERS IN THE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS NRN NY
AND WRN VT. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-2" STILL LOOK ON
TRACK. WITH DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS AND RIVERS RUNNING NEAR BASE
LEVELS...ONLY LOOKING FOR MINOR FIELD AND STREET FLOODING IN
FOCUSED AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN. LEAVES CAN SOMETIMES CLOG STORM DRAINS
ADDING TO A BIT OF STREET FLOODING...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC
IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
REMAIN SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE MID-OCTOBER AVERAGES WITH READINGS MOSTLY
IN THE MID-UPR 50S (15-20 DEG ABOVE NORMAL).

FRIDAY...OCCLUSION SHIFTS INTO MAINE WITH MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT AND
BROAD SWLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
MAY SEE A FEW ISOLD RAIN SHOWERS REACHING NRN NY FROM LAKE
ONTARIO...BUT OTHERWISE LOOKING INTERVALS OF CLOUDS/SUN. STILL +7 TO
+8C AT 850MB IN SW FLOW REGIME AND TEMPERATURES - WHILE NOT AS WARM
AS RECENT DAYS - WILL STILL REACH THE MID-UPR 60S FOR MOST VALLEY
SECTIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE A BIT GUSTY AT TIMES WITH
SW GRADIENT FLOW...GENERALLY 10-15 MPH WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS OF 20-30
MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT...DEEP-LAYER SWLY FLOW REMAINS AND STRENGTHENS
IN ADVANCE OF A DIGGING TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/SERN ONTARIO.
PROBABLY LOOKING AT A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR LAKE CHAMPLAIN AS
P-GRADIENT INCREASES. WELL-MIXED PBL SHOULD KEEP THINGS FAIRLY MILD
WITH LOWS IN THE UPR 40S TO MID 50S (WARMEST IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY). SHOULD SEE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS VERMONT...BUT AN
INCREASE TO MOSTLY CLOUDY/CLOUDY CONDITIONS IN ADVANCE OF
APPROACHING MID-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS NRN NY. MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS
DEVELOP DURING THE PRE-DAWN HRS ACROSS OUR NY COUNTIES AS WELL...AND
WILL INDICATE 20-40 POPS FOR WESTERN ZONES.

FOR SATURDAY...IT APPEARS THAT A RATHER VIGOROUS REINFORCING
MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT EWD INTO THE
NORTH COUNTRY. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS ACROSS
THE VALLEYS OF S-CENTRAL VERMONT...UP TO 0.25" ACROSS THE NRN
MOUNTAINS. GIVEN CONSISTENCY IN NWP GUIDANCE SUITE, WILL CARRY 70-80
POPS ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE VALLEYS OF CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
EARLY AFTERNOON MAXES OF LOW-MID 60S ACROSS VERMONT...BUT LIKELY
REMAINING IN THE MID-UPR 50S WITH EARLIER FRONTAL WIND SHIFT AND
LOW-LEVEL CAA OFFSETTING DIURNAL TRENDS DURING THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 318 AM EDT THURSDAY...A BRUTAL CHANGE WITH TEMPERATURES SOME
20-25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THIS PAST TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TO PERHAPS
5+ DEGS BLO NORMAL BY SUNDAY WITH BLUSTERY COLD RAIN SHOWERS IN
VLYS BUT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS PSBL.

CORE OF THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NORTHEAST WITH A STRONG COLD
FRONT TRACKING THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY SATURDAY AFTN-SATURDAY
NIGHT AND THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINING ACRS FA THRU SUNDAY. THIS WILL
SUPPORT ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS WITH P-TYPE
LIKELY CHANGING TO SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AS 925-850MB
TEMPS CRASH BELOW 0C FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

MONDAY...BROAD NW CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES WITH SOME WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING FOR MONDAY...THUS RELATIVELY DRY BUT AOB
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

TUESDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND SFC WAVE EVENTUALLY RESULTING INTO
ANOTHER CLOSED UPPER LOW WITH SOME COASTAL DEVELOPMENT. ATTM...MAIN
SHIELD OF PCPN SHOULD REMAIN ESE OF FA BUT TROF AXIS ACROSS CWA THUS
CANT RULE OUT SOME INSTABILTY VLY SHRA AND PERHAPS MTN SHSN.

THEREAFTER...HIGH PRESSURE FROM QUEBEC DOWN THROUGH GREAT LAKES
BUILD INTO FA BUT REMAINING ON THE SEASONABLY COOL SIDE FOR WED.

IN REGARDS TO TEMPS...MORE FALL-LIKE TEMPS RETURN WITH HIGHS
SUN/MON/TUE ONLY IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S AND LOWS IN THE 20S AND
30S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/RAIN HAS MOVED INTO
FA AS ADVERTISED WITH CONTINUED PLUME OF SHOWERS OFFSHORE OF NC
COAST HEADED TOWARD ERN VT/NEW ENGLAND. GRADUAL WEST TO EAST
MOVEMENT WITH SHRA ENDING IN NY BY ERLY-MID AFTN...CHMPL VLY MID-
LATE AFTN AND CT RVR VLY POSSIBLY AS LATE AS 06Z FRI.

MDL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN WAY TOO PESSIMISTIC WITH IFR CIGS THE LAST
FEW DAYS AND BASED ON CURRENT AND UPSTREAM OBS HAVE BROUGHT VFR
LOWERING TO MVFR WITH SCT IFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER SHRA ACTIVITY
AND THEN PERHAPS SCT IFR OVERNIGHT AT KMPV.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THRU THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... DRYING ON FRIDAY WITH MAINLY
VFR CONDS. ANOTHER FRNT WL PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
SATURDAY...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY SAT AFTN/EVENING. A WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST WL OCCUR SAT NIGHT BEHIND THIS FRNT WITH A FEW MTN SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT SLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SLW






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BURLINGTON VT

 715 AM EDT THU OCT 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A MOISTURE LADEN OCCLUDED FRONT AND ASSOCIATED RAINBAND WILL SHIFT
SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD FROM NEW YORK ACROSS VERMONT TODAY. PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL AMOUNT TO 1 TO 2 INCHES OF TOTAL
RAINFALL BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED
OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH BRINGS A RETURN TO
COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL COOL SUFFICIENTLY FOR HIGHER SUMMIT SNOW
SHOWERS BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH A LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER PEAKS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 318 AM EDT THURSDAY...SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOW AND LEADING
OCCLUDED FRONTAL BOUNDARY FINALLY MAKING THEIR WAY NEWD INTO THE
NORTH COUNTRY THIS MORNING. LOOKING AT OVERCAST CONDITIONS AND
VERY MILD/MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE GIVEN THE PROLONGED FETCH OF
SOUTHERLY FLOW DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS (INCLUDING RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES OF 79F AND 80F ON 10/14 AND 10/15, RESPECTIVELY).
DAYTIME TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 70S TODAY AREAWIDE.

SPC MESOANALYSIS BASED ON RAP MODEL SHOWS PW PLUME OF 1.6-1.8"
FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EXTENDING NNWWD ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND
ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND NEW YORK. THE FRONTAL RAINBAND WILL
PRODUCE PERIODS OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN...WHILE
GRADUALLY SHIFTING FROM NY/CHAMPLAIN VALLEY THIS MORNING INTO
CENTRAL/ERN VERMONT LATER IN THE DAY. POPS NEAR 100 PERCENT. WILL
SEE AREAS OF 1-1.5" RAINFALL BY EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH HIGHEST
TOTALS ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS WITH SFC-900MB SELY
UPSLOPE ENHANCING RAINFALL AMOUNTS A BIT. AT THE SAME TIME...THERE
WILL BE SOME DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND ALONG
THE NRN SLOPES OF THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE SOME LULLS IN THE
PRECIPITATION CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS BREEZY AS RECENT DAYS...GENERALLY
SELY AROUND 10 MPH. SOME LOCALIZED DOWNSLOPE FLOW IS POSSIBLE
ALONG THE WRN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE WESTERN SLOPES. RELATIVELY STABLE BOUNDARY
LAYER OWING TO RAINFALL WILL GENERALLY PRECLUDE ANY HIGHER WIND
GUST POTENTIAL AND KEEP THE FOOTPRINT OF ANY STRONGER GUSTS
RELATIVELY SMALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 318 AM EDT THURSDAY...
TONIGHT...SURFACE OCCLUDED FRONT SHIFTS SLOWLY NEWD ACROSS
CENTRAL/NERN VT TONIGHT. WILL SEE STEADY RAINFALL GRADUALLY WORK ITS
WAY OUT OF CENTRAL/ERN VT BY MIDNIGHT OR SO...WITH JUST SOME
SPRINKLES/ISOLD SHOWERS IN THE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS NRN NY
AND WRN VT. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-2" STILL LOOK ON
TRACK. WITH DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS AND RIVERS RUNNING NEAR BASE
LEVELS...ONLY LOOKING FOR MINOR FIELD AND STREET FLOODING IN
FOCUSED AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN. LEAVES CAN SOMETIMES CLOG STORM DRAINS
ADDING TO A BIT OF STREET FLOODING...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC
IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
REMAIN SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE MID-OCTOBER AVERAGES WITH READINGS MOSTLY
IN THE MID-UPR 50S (15-20 DEG ABOVE NORMAL).

FRIDAY...OCCLUSION SHIFTS INTO MAINE WITH MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT AND
BROAD SWLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
MAY SEE A FEW ISOLD RAIN SHOWERS REACHING NRN NY FROM LAKE
ONTARIO...BUT OTHERWISE LOOKING INTERVALS OF CLOUDS/SUN. STILL +7 TO
+8C AT 850MB IN SW FLOW REGIME AND TEMPERATURES - WHILE NOT AS WARM
AS RECENT DAYS - WILL STILL REACH THE MID-UPR 60S FOR MOST VALLEY
SECTIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE A BIT GUSTY AT TIMES WITH
SW GRADIENT FLOW...GENERALLY 10-15 MPH WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS OF 20-30
MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT...DEEP-LAYER SWLY FLOW REMAINS AND STRENGTHENS
IN ADVANCE OF A DIGGING TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/SERN ONTARIO.
PROBABLY LOOKING AT A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR LAKE CHAMPLAIN AS
P-GRADIENT INCREASES. WELL-MIXED PBL SHOULD KEEP THINGS FAIRLY MILD
WITH LOWS IN THE UPR 40S TO MID 50S (WARMEST IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY). SHOULD SEE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS VERMONT...BUT AN
INCREASE TO MOSTLY CLOUDY/CLOUDY CONDITIONS IN ADVANCE OF
APPROACHING MID-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS NRN NY. MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS
DEVELOP DURING THE PRE-DAWN HRS ACROSS OUR NY COUNTIES AS WELL...AND
WILL INDICATE 20-40 POPS FOR WESTERN ZONES.

FOR SATURDAY...IT APPEARS THAT A RATHER VIGOROUS REINFORCING
MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT EWD INTO THE
NORTH COUNTRY. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS ACROSS
THE VALLEYS OF S-CENTRAL VERMONT...UP TO 0.25" ACROSS THE NRN
MOUNTAINS. GIVEN CONSISTENCY IN NWP GUIDANCE SUITE, WILL CARRY 70-80
POPS ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE VALLEYS OF CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
EARLY AFTERNOON MAXES OF LOW-MID 60S ACROSS VERMONT...BUT LIKELY
REMAINING IN THE MID-UPR 50S WITH EARLIER FRONTAL WIND SHIFT AND
LOW-LEVEL CAA OFFSETTING DIURNAL TRENDS DURING THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 318 AM EDT THURSDAY...A BRUTAL CHANGE WITH TEMPERATURES SOME
20-25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THIS PAST TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TO PERHAPS
5+ DEGS BLO NORMAL BY SUNDAY WITH BLUSTERY COLD RAIN SHOWERS IN
VLYS BUT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS PSBL.

CORE OF THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NORTHEAST WITH A STRONG COLD
FRONT TRACKING THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY SATURDAY AFTN-SATURDAY
NIGHT AND THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINING ACRS FA THRU SUNDAY. THIS WILL
SUPPORT ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS WITH P-TYPE
LIKELY CHANGING TO SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AS 925-850MB
TEMPS CRASH BELOW 0C FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

MONDAY...BROAD NW CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES WITH SOME WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING FOR MONDAY...THUS RELATIVELY DRY BUT AOB
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

TUESDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND SFC WAVE EVENTUALLY RESULTING INTO
ANOTHER CLOSED UPPER LOW WITH SOME COASTAL DEVELOPMENT. ATTM...MAIN
SHIELD OF PCPN SHOULD REMAIN ESE OF FA BUT TROF AXIS ACROSS CWA THUS
CANT RULE OUT SOME INSTABILTY VLY SHRA AND PERHAPS MTN SHSN.

THEREAFTER...HIGH PRESSURE FROM QUEBEC DOWN THROUGH GREAT LAKES
BUILD INTO FA BUT REMAINING ON THE SEASONABLY COOL SIDE FOR WED.

IN REGARDS TO TEMPS...MORE FALL-LIKE TEMPS RETURN WITH HIGHS
SUN/MON/TUE ONLY IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S AND LOWS IN THE 20S AND
30S.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...SPOTTY SHRA ACTVTY ACROSS NRN NY BUT A MORE
ORGANZIED PLUME OF +SHRA MVG NNE ACROSS LOWER HUDSON VLY FOR
CHAMPL VLY AND NRN NY THRU 12Z. SHORTLY THEREAFTER...ANOTHER PLUME
LIKELY TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS CHAMPLAIN VLY AND VT THRU
EVENING WITH NY DRYING OUT.

MDL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN WAY TOO PESSIMISTIC WITH IFR CIGS THE LAST
FEW DAYS AND BASED ON CURRENT AND UPSTREAM OBS HAVE BROUGHT VFR
LOWERING TO MVFR WITH SCT IFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER SHRA ACTIVITY
AND THEN PERHAPS MORE CONFIDENT TNGT.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THRU THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... HEAVIER RAIN BAND SHOULD HAVE
EXITED BY 06Z FRIDAY...SOME LEFTOVER BL MOISTURE MAY PRODUCE SOME
LOW STRATUS CLOUDS AT MPV/SLK WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS POSSIBLE. ANOTHER
FRNT WL PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS SATURDAY...WITH BRIEF PERIODS
OF MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY...ESPECIALLY SAT AFTN/EVENING. A WIND
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WL OCCUR SAT NIGHT BEHIND THIS FRNT WITH A
FEW MTN SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT SLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...TABER/SLW






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BINGHAMTON NY

 138 AM EDT THU OCT 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS OCCASIONALLY HEAVY AT TIMES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. A FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING
BRINGING AN END TO THE SHOWERS. TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE
PRIMARILY DRY WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1230 AM UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO CURRENT CONDITIONS. NEGATIVE TILT TROF WILL KEEP
SHOWERS HERE MOST OF THIS MORNING. AS STATED BELOW ANOTHER BATCH
OF HEAVY RAIN MOVING OVER DELAWARE STATE HEADING THIS WAY. 4 AM IN
CWA. DROPPED ADVISORIES AND WARNING BUT MORE LIKELY WITH NEXT
BATCH.

1015 PM UPDATE...
RELATIVE LULL IN THE ACTION CURRENTLY AFTER A STRIPE 1 TO 3 INCH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA...LOCALIZED REPORTS
OF 2.5 TO 4 INCHES. IMPACTS HAVE BEEN ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS
WHICH ARE SUBJECT TO POOR DRAINAGE FROM CONCRETE AND ADDITIONAL
PROBLEM OF FALLEN LEAVES BLOCKING GRATES. SCRANTON AND UTICA IN
PARTICULAR HAD A LOT OF WATER ON ROADS AND SOME TRAPPED CARS.

VERY DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER...ALMOST 4 KM...AND PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES TO AROUND AN INCH-AND-THREE- QUARTERS...ARE VERY ANOMALOUS
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE RESULTING WARM CLOUD PROCESSES IS
LIKELY WHY RADAR HAS STRUGGLED TO ESTIMATE RAINFALL...EARLIER
UNDERESTIMATING VERSUS REPORTS BY UP TO A FACTOR OF 2.

RAIN RIGHT NOW IS ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH LESS BANDING COMPARED TO
EARLIER. HOWEVER...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN PLACE OVERNIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING BECAUSE OF CONTINUED EXPECTED ROUNDS OF
RAINFALL. NEW BAND NOW DEVELOPING AS EXPECTED IN THE DEL-MAR-VA
AREA...AND THIS WILL RIDE LLJ QUICKLY INTO OUR REGION AS PER THE
HI RES MODELS HRRR AND RUC...AND LOOKS LIKE THE NEW OPERATIONAL
00Z NAM THAT IS JUST COMING IN AS WELL. OUTSIDE OF THE URBAN POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS...WE WERE ABLE TO ABSORB THE INITIAL SHOT OF RAIN
RATHER WELL DUE TO DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...NEW
LOCALIZED ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN WILL BE MUCH MORE PRONE TO RUNNING
OFF AND CAUSING ISSUES.

THURSDAY MORNING CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE AS THE SURFACE
OCCLUSION MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY...SYSTEM WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTH INTO EASTERN
CANADA WITH REGION UNDER A FAIRLY DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW. HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL RANGE IN THE 60S.

FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW NOW MOVING INTO THE
NORTHWEST US WILL TRACK INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND CARVE OUT
ANOTHER DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF WITH THIS CURRENT FEATURE AND PUSH A
SFC COLD FRONT THROUGH ON SATURDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC/SLIGHT
CHC POPS DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
S/WV EMBEDDED IN THE NWLY FLOW BEHIND THE PARTING UPR LOW WILL
PASS THROUGH THE RGN IN THE SAT NGT/SUNDAY TIME FRAME. ANOTHER
S/WV APRCHS FOR MON NGT/TUE AND PASSES TO OUR SOUTH. CARRIED LOW
CHC POPS FOR BOTH OF THESE SYSTEMS. IN BETWEEN THEM...GNRLY FAIR
WX. HPC GUIDANCE LOOKED GREAT AND WAS USED FOR THE MED RNG. TEMPS
GNRLY BLO NORMAL WITH MAXES U40S TO M50S...MINS 30-35.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...
AREA OF RAIN IS MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH AND WILL AFFECT TERMINALS
WITH IFR RESTRICTIONS AT SOME POINT DURING THE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT
IFR TO HOLD OFF AT SYR AND RME UNTIL AFTER 08Z WITH BGM AND AVP
SEEING IFR BEGINNING TO IMPACT TERMINALS AFTER 07Z.

AS RAIN CLEARS OUT FROM TERMINALS AFTER 12Z EXPECT A GRADUAL
IMPROVE TO BKN-OVC VFR DECK TODAY. POTENTIAL EXISTS AGAIN FOR LOW
MVFR/IFR AT RME/SYR AND ITH AFTER 02Z FRIDAY WITH CONFIDENCE LOW
REMAINING TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK...

THU NGT...MVFR IN SCT -SHRA.

FRI/FRI NGT...VFR.

SAT/SAT NGT...MVFR WITH -SHRA PSBL.

SUN...IMPRVG TO VFR.

MON...VFR.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES. A LULL NOW WITH SHOWERS NOT TRAINING
AND HEAVIER RAIN ISOLATED. FLASH FLOOD WARNING AND FLOOD
ADVISORIES CANCELLED. ANOTHER BATCH OF HEAVY RAIN GETTING
ORGANIZED OVER DELAWARE STATE WILL MOVE NNW INTO CWA EARLY THIS
MORNING. MESO MODELS HAVE THIS. THIS COULD DROP ANOTHER QUICK 1 TO
2 INCHES. SO FAR HIGHEST AMOUNTS 3 TO 5 INCHES FROM LUZERNE TO
CHENANGO. DESPITE THE DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS FLOOD RESPONSE WAS
RAPID...ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS. RADAR ESTIMATES GROSSLY
UNDERDONE. STREAM RESPONSE WAS RAPID TOO BUT NO FLOODING THERE.
THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED SINCE THE STREAMS HAVE NOT DROPPED
BACK TO ORIGINAL LEVELS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ038>040-
     043-044-047-048-072.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ009-036-
     037-045-046-055>057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM/TAC
NEAR TERM...MDP/TAC
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...PVN
HYDROLOGY...






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BINGHAMTON NY

 1242 AM EDT THU OCT 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS OCCASIONALLY HEAVY AT TIMES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. A FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING
BRINGING AN END TO THE SHOWERS. TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE
PRIMARILY DRY WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1230 AM UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO CURRENT CONDITIONS. NEGATIVE TILT TROF WILL KEEP
SHOWERS HERE MOST OF THIS MORNING. AS STATED BELOW ANOTHER BATCH
OF HEAVY RAIN MOVING OVER DELAWARE STATE HEADING THIS WAY. 4 AM IN
CWA. DROPPED ADVISORIES AND WARNING BUT MORE LIKELY WITH NEXT
BATCH.

1015 PM UPDATE...
RELATIVE LULL IN THE ACTION CURRENTLY AFTER A STRIPE 1 TO 3 INCH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA...LOCALIZED REPORTS
OF 2.5 TO 4 INCHES. IMPACTS HAVE BEEN ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS
WHICH ARE SUBJECT TO POOR DRAINAGE FROM CONCRETE AND ADDITIONAL
PROBLEM OF FALLEN LEAVES BLOCKING GRATES. SCRANTON AND UTICA IN
PARTICULAR HAD A LOT OF WATER ON ROADS AND SOME TRAPPED CARS.

VERY DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER...ALMOST 4 KM...AND PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES TO AROUND AN INCH-AND-THREE- QUARTERS...ARE VERY ANOMALOUS
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE RESULTING WARM CLOUD PROCESSES IS
LIKELY WHY RADAR HAS STRUGGLED TO ESTIMATE RAINFALL...EARLIER
UNDERESTIMATING VERSUS REPORTS BY UP TO A FACTOR OF 2.

RAIN RIGHT NOW IS ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH LESS BANDING COMPARED TO
EARLIER. HOWEVER...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN PLACE OVERNIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING BECAUSE OF CONTINUED EXPECTED ROUNDS OF
RAINFALL. NEW BAND NOW DEVELOPING AS EXPECTED IN THE DEL-MAR-VA
AREA...AND THIS WILL RIDE LLJ QUICKLY INTO OUR REGION AS PER THE
HI RES MODELS HRRR AND RUC...AND LOOKS LIKE THE NEW OPERATIONAL
00Z NAM THAT IS JUST COMING IN AS WELL. OUTSIDE OF THE URBAN POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS...WE WERE ABLE TO ABSORB THE INITIAL SHOT OF RAIN
RATHER WELL DUE TO DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...NEW
LOCALIZED ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN WILL BE MUCH MORE PRONE TO RUNNING
OFF AND CAUSING ISSUES.

THURSDAY MORNING CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE AS THE SURFACE
OCCLUSION MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY...SYSTEM WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTH INTO EASTERN
CANADA WITH REGION UNDER A FAIRLY DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW. HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL RANGE IN THE 60S.

FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW NOW MOVING INTO THE
NORTHWEST US WILL TRACK INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND CARVE OUT
ANOTHER DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF WITH THIS CURRENT FEATURE AND PUSH A
SFC COLD FRONT THROUGH ON SATURDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC/SLIGHT
CHC POPS DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
S/WV EMBEDDED IN THE NWLY FLOW BEHIND THE PARTING UPR LOW WILL
PASS THROUGH THE RGN IN THE SAT NGT/SUNDAY TIME FRAME. ANOTHER
S/WV APRCHS FOR MON NGT/TUE AND PASSES TO OUR SOUTH. CARRIED LOW
CHC POPS FOR BOTH OF THESE SYSTEMS. IN BETWEEN THEM...GNRLY FAIR
WX. HPC GUIDANCE LOOKED GREAT AND WAS USED FOR THE MED RNG. TEMPS
GNRLY BLO NORMAL WITH MAXES U40S TO M50S...MINS 30-35.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
00Z UPDATE...
SURGE OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE UP THE EASTERN SIDE OF A LARGE UPPER
LOW...HAS RESULTED IN WAVES OF RAIN WHICH HAVE BEEN AND WILL
CONTINUE TO BE HEAVY AT TIMES WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS...ESPECIALLY
KAVP-KBGM-KRME. EVEN WHERE RAIN DOES NOT FALL AS HARD
THOUGH...EXPECTING DEVELOPMENT OF IFR CIGS AND/OR FOG OVERNIGHT.
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WITHIN LOWEST 2 KFT AGL WILL BREACH LLWS
CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING AT KAVP...BUT PROBABLY NOT QUITE
AT THE OTHER TERMINALS /THOUGH THIS POTENTIAL WILL BE MONITORED/.
RAIN WILL TAPER OFF THU MORNING...CLOUDS MAY BE A LITTLE SLOWER TO
ERODE BUT EVENTUAL VFR ANTICIPATED LATE MORNING-EARLY AFTERNOON AS
DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...

THU NGT...MVFR IN SCT -SHRA.

FRI/FRI NGT...VFR.

SAT/SAT NGT...MVFR WITH -SHRA PSBL.

SUN...IMPRVG TO VFR.

MON...VFR.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES. A LULL NOW WITH SHOWERS NOT TRAINING
AND HEAVIER RAIN ISOLATED. FLASH FLOOD WARNING AND FLOOD
ADVISORIES CANCELLED. ANOTHER BATCH OF HEAVY RAIN GETTING
ORGANIZED OVER DELAWARE STATE WILL MOVE NNW INTO CWA EARLY THIS
MORNING. MESO MODELS HAVE THIS. THIS COULD DROP ANOTHER QUICK 1 TO
2 INCHES. SO FAR HIGHEST AMOUNTS 3 TO 5 INCHES FROM LUZERNE TO
CHENANGO. DESPITE THE DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS FLOOD RESPONSE WAS
RAPID...ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS. RADAR ESTIMATES GROSSLY
UNDERDONE. STREAM RESPONSE WAS RAPID TOO BUT NO FLOODING THERE.
THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED SINCE THE STREAMS HAVE NOT DROPPED
BACK TO ORIGINAL LEVELS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ038>040-
     043-044-047-048-072.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ009-036-
     037-045-046-055>057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM/TAC
NEAR TERM...MDP/TAC
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MDP
HYDROLOGY...







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND FORKS ND

 310 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2014

SHOWER CHANCES AND WIND POTENTIAL THIS EVENING/TONIGHT WILL BE
THE MAIN CHALLENGES. 12Z MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT.

A SECONDARY PUSH OF COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
FROM CANADA THIS EVENING...WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW TO 925MB
(WITH 925MB WIND SPEEDS @40-45 KNOTS)...AND MIXING UP TO
850MB...ALONG WITH A SFC PRESSURE RISE 4-5MB/3-HR (ACROSS NE ND
AND NW MN). THIS WILL MOSTLY OCCUR AFTER SUNSET AND WITH CLOUD
COVER...SO MIXING POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED. THE MOST LIKELY
SCENARIO WILL BE BRIEF WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS WITH THE INITIAL
PUSH OF COLD AIR ADVECTION...WITH NEAR ADVISORY CONDITIONS A
MAJORITY OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOPWRF INDICATES A LOW
PROBABILITY (30%) FOR ADVISORY WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
VALLEY...WHICH WOULD TEND TO AGREE WITH THE EXPECTED SCENARIO.

A BAND OF PERSISTENT SHOWERS JUST NORTH OF THE UPPER LOW HAS
PRODUCED 0.20-0.40 INCHES OF RAINFALL ACROSS A PORTION OF THE
DEVILS LAKE BASIN. LATEST HRRR INDICATES THIS BAND WILL SLOWLY
PIVOT SOUTH/SOUTHEAST...AND DISSIPATE. RADAR INDICATES THAT THIS
IS BEGINNING TO OCCUR...AND WILL ADJUST POPS/WX TOWARD THIS
SOLUTION. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT...SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT NOT SURE WHEN AND WHERE (HRRR/RAP
INDICATES MORE ISOLATED/SCATTERED COVERAGE). IF A PERSISTENT BAND
OF SHOWERS AGAIN DEVELOPS...WILL ADJUST POPS UPWARD.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
COLDER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED...WITH BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2014

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SHORTWAVE WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS CANADA ON
SATURDAY AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY. BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS ON SATURDAY...WITH A WIND SHIFT AND BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURE SHOULD BE WARMER EACH DAY
(STRONGEST COLD AIR ADVECTION NOT EXPECTED UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT).
THE AIRMASS WILL BE RELATIVELY DRY...AND WITH THE STRONGEST
FORCING TO THE NORTH SHOWER CHANCES ARE EXTREMELY LIMITED.

SUNDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...SYNOPTIC MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT
AGREEMENT THIS PERIOD. DEPARTING UPPER WAVE...BUILDING HEIGHTS AND
SURFACE HIGH BUILDING IN SPELL DECREASING WINDS. SURFACE HIGH
TRANSITS CWFA...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MINIMAL MIXING TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY. RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS
OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY LEADING TO BREEZY SOUTH WINDS. BLOCKING LOW
OVER EASTERN U.S. AND SPLIT FLOW LEAD TO SLOW MOVING UPPER AND
SURFACE PATTERN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS BOTH
DAYS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO AND ACROSS THE CWFA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WITH GFS/ECMWF TIMING SIMILAR. LEFT BLEND POPS
ALONE DUE TO THE INHERENT UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT IN TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2014

WIND SHIFT ALONG THE RED RIVER AT 1730Z FCST TO CONT MOVING EAST
AT 20 KTS PASSING KTVF 19Z AND KBJI 22Z. GUSTS 30KTS PSL WITHIN
1-2 HOURS FROPA...THEN WINDS DIMINISH. EXP SPEEDS TO INCREASE WITH
GUSTS GTR 30KTS AFT 00Z. VCSH DVL-GFK THROUGH 00Z AND KTVF AFT 21Z
VFR CIGS FCST EXCEPT BCMG MVFR DVL AREA AFT 00Z.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...EWENS/TG
AVIATION...EWENS




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON OH

 1013 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT SHIFTING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT OVER
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OHIO. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL ALLOW COOL TEMPERATURES TO SPILL SOUTH AND COVER THE AREA
SATURDAY. A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL WEATHER SYSTEM WILL DIG SOUTHEAST
ACROSS OHIO AND KENTUCKY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BRINGING
A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS. IN ADDITION...THE COOL AIR FLOWING
OVER LAKE MICHIGAN MAY ALLOW A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
NORTHERN INDIANA AND AFFECT THE TRI STATE ON SATURDAY MORNING IN
ADVANCE OF THE STRONGER WAVE IN THE AFTERNOON. A DRY SUNDAY IS
EXPECTED WITH COOL TEMPERATURES LINGERING. LOOKING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...WITH A CHANCE OF
RAIN MOVING BACK INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES
INTO THE GREAT LAKES FROM CANADA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
LIGHT ECHOES HEADING TOWARD THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA HAVE
DISSIPATED THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION HAS
DEVELOPED IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN AND NORTHEAST INDIANA. THE LATEST
HRRR/RAP RUNS SUGGEST THAT SOME OF THIS MAY ENCROACH THE NORTHERN
/ NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE ILN CWA...MAINLY BETWEEN 06Z-10Z.
SO...SOME LOW-END POPS HAVE BEEN LEFT IN THE FORECAST FOR THAT
TIME PERIOD.

AS THE COLD FRONT PASSED THROUGH THE AREA AND WINDS SHIFTED TO THE
WEST...THE STRENGTH OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW HAS INCREASED. THE
STRONGEST GUSTS OF THE DAY HAVE OCCURRED IN JUST THE PAST FEW
HOURS...INCLUDING 34 KNOTS AT KILN AND 33 KNOTS AT KDAY. BASED ON
UPSTREAM CONDITIONS...THE WINDS ARE UNLIKELY TO REMAIN THIS
STRONG FOR MORE THAN ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS. HOWEVER...WINDS HAVE
BEEN INCREASED SLIGHTLY FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS REMAINING AT 10-15 KNOTS AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 20
KNOTS EXPECTED EVEN THROUGH MORNING.

WITH THE FRONT LEADING TO A LITTLE BIT OF A TIGHTER TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...MIN TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED
SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION >
17.18Z RAP ANALYSIS AND OBSERVATIONAL DATA /GOES WATER VAPOR DATA/
INDICATE A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING LAKE MICHIGAN AND
EASTERN WISCONSIN. AT THE SURFACE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...IS A
STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS WRN LOWER MICHIGAN...INDIANA...INTO
SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS. LOW CLOUDS ARE STREAKING QUICKLY ACROSS NRN
INDIANA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT IN DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CAA.
GUSTY WAA/MIXING IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO
RISE TO NEAR 70F AREA-WIDE...WITH DWPTS MIXING STEADILY INTO THE
UPPER 40S AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON. IN THE PAST FEW HOURS...SOME
HIGH BASED CUMULUS HAVE DEVELOPED IN A FORCED ASCENT REGION
IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM OF THE SHORTWAVE OVER NERN IND/NWRN
OH...WITH SPRINKLES/-SHRA NOW DEVELOPING.

EXPECT SOME HIGHER-BASED SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP IN ACCORDANCE WITH RECENT HRRR...17.12Z HIRES
ARW/NMM/NAM/GEM. THESE SHOULD DEVELOP/STREAK DOWNSTREAM ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-70 THROUGH THIS EVENING SO INTRODUCED VERY SMALL
CHANCES OF A MEASURABLE SHOWER ESP FOR AREAS FROM CELINA TO KENTON
OVER TO DELAWARE. COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY CROSS THE CWA THIS
EVENING AND STRONG CAA TO ENSUE WITH BRISK/GUSTY NW WINDS. BRING
CLOUD COVER UP QUICKLY IN THE NWLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...WITH CONTINUED MENTION OF A SPRINKLE/-SHRA INTO THE
OVERNIGHT IN OUR FAR NORTH WHICH IS JUXTAPOSED WITH THE DEEPEST
/RELATIVELY SPEAKING/ MOISTURE AND MODEST FORCED ASCENT FROM THE
SHORTWAVE CROSSING MICH/LAKE HURON. LATER IN THE NIGHT /AFTER 3 AM
OR SO/...THE STRONG COLD ADVECTION SHOULD BEGIN WORKING THE WARM
SRN LAKE MICHIGAN LAKE WATERS AND ALL CONVECTION-ALLOWING GUIDANCE
INDICATES STREAMERS OF -SHRA DEVELOPING OFF LAKE MICHIGAN PUSHING
INTO ECNTL IND TOWARD THE CWA VERY LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ON 19.12Z...THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE MENTIONED ABOVE WILL BE PUSHING
INTO UPSTATE NY...WHILE A SECOND STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS
QUICKLY SOUTHEAST INTO WIS/ILL. THINK THERE IS A LULL IN THE
SYNOPTIC FORCING FROM 12Z-18Z...SO RAIN CHANCES IN THE MORNING
QUITE SMALL. LOW LEVEL STRATUS/STRATOCUMULUS WILL BE RATHER
WIDESPREAD...BUT THERE MAY BE SOME HOLES HERE AND THERE AMIDST THE
STRONG CAA. LAKE MICHIGAN-INDUCED BANDS OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TO POSE A THREAT INTO THE TRI-STATE AREA ON A LIMITED/NARROW
BASIS...AS MOST 17.12Z CAM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST SHRA
BANDS WILL BE MAINTAINED OFF LAKE MICHIGAN INTO SERN IND/SWRN
OH/NRN KY.

THE SECOND POTENT S/W BRINGS A BRIEF BUT DEEP MOISTURE FIELD AND
COMPACT VERTICAL MOTION SIGNAL. SEEMS QPF IN THE DETERMINISTIC
RUNS MAY BE UNDERDONE GIVEN A PURELY MOISTURE/LIFT PERSPECTIVE
FROM 17.12Z NAM/GFS...BUT THERE IS ACKNOWLEDGMENT THAT ANTECEDENT
MOISTURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES IS HARDLY IMPRESSIVE. THUS...EXPECT
BAND/S/ OF SHOWERS TO SPREAD NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVE. INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES A BIT BUT THINK THEY COULD GO EVEN A LITTLE HIGHER IF
FORCING/MOISTURE SIGNAL STILL LOOKS DECENT. A CHILLY...GREY DAY
FOR THE MOST PART...WITH HIGHS ONLY MOVING UP A FEW DEGREES OFF
THE MORNING LOWS...MOSTLY LOW-MID 50S GIVEN 850MB TEMPS PLUNGING
TO 0C BY MIDDAY OVER OHIO/INDIANA. A BRISK WIND WILL ADD TO THE CHILL.

THIS FORCING QUICKLY SLIDES EAST SATURDAY NIGHT WITH CLEARING
SKIES. THIS IS IMPORTANT AND STILL A LOW CONFIDENCE POINT...IF
SUBSIDENCE IS EFFICIENT AT ERODING LOW CLOUDS...MAY BE DEALING
WITH A WIDESPREAD FROST /AND POTENTIAL FREEZE/ IN OUR NORTH/WEST
COUNTIES LATER SAT NIGHT. A FEW HOURS EITHER WAY MAKE/BREAK THIS
FORECAST...AND THIS PUTS CNTL OH/SCIOTO VALLEY IN A REAL QUESTION
MARK AS THERE WON/T BE MUCH OF A WINDOW FOR FROST FORMATION IF LOW
CLOUDS ARE SLOW IN ERODING. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT OWING TO
DECOUPLING BOUNDARY LAYER. 17.12Z NAM HAS MORE WIND AND A HIGHER
POTENTIAL OF LOW CLOUDS HANGING IN THEN 17.12Z GFS...WHICH LOOKS
VERY FROSTY IN OUR NORTH/WEST. AT A MINIMUM THINK WE/LL PROBABLY
NEED FROST ADVISORIES FOR WCNTL OH/SERN IND/PORTIONS OF SWRN OH
SAT NIGHT...WITH POTENTIAL FREEZE HEADLINES IN FAR NORTH/WEST AND
MORE WIDESPREAD FROST HEADLINES IF CLEARING IS AHEAD OF SCHEDULE.

SUNDAY BRINGS A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AS S/W RIDGING MOVES IN.
BOUNDARY LAYER SLOW TO WARM AFTER THE CHILLY START AND ONLY LOW-
MID 50S ARE SUGGESTED GIVEN LIGHT WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND
BETTER WAA REMAINING ATOP THE BOUNDARY LAYER. WARM ADVECTION
BECOMES STRONGER SUNDAY NIGHT AS THETA-E ADVECTION INCREASES AHEAD
OF NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THERE STILL
MAY BE A FROST THREAT IN CNTL OH/SCIOTO VALLEY AS THEY WILL BE
LAST TO SEE INCREASING CLOUDS/SWLY WINDS. DID INTRODUCE A SMALL
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FAR WEST/NORTH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT GIVEN
SIGNALS IN ECMWF/GFS...THOUGH NAM/SREF ARE QUITE DRY IN THE
SUBCLOUD LAYER BELOW THE ADVANCING MID CLOUD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN GFS/ECMWF IN THE OVERALL UPR PATTERN
AND THE ASSOC SFC FEATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED...ALTHOUGH SOME
CHANGES IN BOTH MODELS FROM YESTERDAY INCLUDE A DEEPER UPR LEVEL LOW
AND THEREFOR SLOWER TO DEPART THE REGION PRIOR TO THE DEEP RIDGING
DOMINATING THE CENTRAL/WESTERN CONUS IN THE LATTER PART OF THE
EXTENDED. HAVE LINGERED SHOWERS NOW THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY IN THE
EAST AS THE UPR LOW CONTINUES TO BECOME DEEPER WITH EACH MODEL RUN
AND WILL RESULT IN PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER IN THE EAST WELL INTO
WEDNESDAY. HAVE ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT LOWS UPWARD IN THE TUE NIGHT/WED
NIGHT TIMEFRAME ACCORDINGLY WITH THE DELAY IN POST FRONTAL CLEARING.

WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR UPDATES IN TEMPS/PRECIP/CLOUDS IN THE EAST
IF THE LOW CONTINUES TO SLOW/DEEPEN.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CEILINGS OVER THE AREA ARE CURRENTLY COMFORTABLY IN THE VFR
RANGE...WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OBSERVED OVER NORTHWEST OHIO AND
NORTHERN INDIANA. AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES INTO THE
OVERNIGHT...LOW CLOUDS UPSTREAM WILL GRADUALLY MOVE INTO THE
REGION...AND MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL THE TAF SITES BY
EARLY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AT THE DAYTON
AND COLUMBUS TAF SITES...BUT IF ANY OCCURS...IT WILL HAVE LITTLE
IMPACT ON AVIATION CONDITIONS.

MVFR CEILINGS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY...THOUGH THEY SHOULD LIFT ABOVE 2000 FEET IN HEIGHT. RAIN
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND COULD
IMPACT ANY OF THE TAF SITES AFTER 18Z. IMPACTS ARE GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO BE MINOR. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR RAIN APPEARS TO BE
AT THE COLUMBUS TAF SITES.

WESTERLY WINDS WILL SLIGHTLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING...BUT SUSTAINED
WINDS OF ABOVE 10 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS. AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST ON
SATURDAY...THEY WILL AGAIN BE BREEZY...WITH GUSTS REACHING THE
20-25 KNOT RANGE.

.OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY EVENING. MVFR
CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BINAU
NEAR TERM...BINAU/HATZOS
SHORT TERM...BINAU
LONG TERM...JDR
AVIATION...HATZOS






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CLEVELAND OH

 206 AM EDT THU OCT 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER INDIANA WILL WOBBLE ACROSS THE REGION INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOVING NORTHWARD AND STRENGTHENING OVER
EASTERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. THERE WILL BE SEVERAL TROUGHS THAT
ROTATE AROUND THE LOW WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVING FRIDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
DID SOME ADJUSTING OF THE POPS BUT DID CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF POPS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. ADDED PATCHY DENSE FOG TO A LARGE
AREA. THE CLOUDS DECREASE AT TIMES AND THEN THE DENSE FOG FORMS AND
THEN WHEN THE CLOUDS MOVES BACK IN THE VISIBILITY USUALLY
IMPROVES. THE HRRR MODEL TRIES TO INDICATE A LARGE AREA OF DENSE
FOG DEVELOPING OVER NW OHIO. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR WHETHER THIS
ACTUALLY OCCURS WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS ROTATING INTO NW OHIO DURING
THE NIGHT.

MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE LOWS BASED ON MIDNIGHT TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS IN A BAND HAVE BECOME MORE PREVALENT FROM ABOUT CUYAHOGA
COUNTY SOUTHEAST INTO MAHONING COUNTY. LOCAL AND MESOSCALE MODELS
DID NOT HANDLE THIS SCENARIO VERY WELL. WILL UPDATE TO INCLUDE
GREATER POPS OVER THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREA AND A CHANCE ELSEWHERE.
OTHERWISE...NO OTHER MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A STRONGER PIECE OF ENERGY WILL ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LOW ON
THURSDAY WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING AS IT MOVES FROM
WESTERN NY INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO. AS THE LOW PIVOTS NORTHWARD IT
WILL PULL A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE THE
HIGHEST ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA BUT ALL LOCATIONS WILL
EXPERIENCE SCATTERED SHOWERS. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH COOLER AIR
FLOWING ACROSS THE LAKE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY TO KEEP SOME
LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS GOING. THESE WILL MAINLY BE OVER NE OHIO INTO
NW PA. IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE A DRY PERIOD FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF
THE NEXT MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT MAY BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL SPILL
ACROSS THE LAKE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH NE OHIO AND NW PA GETTING MOST
OF THE SHOWERS. WE ARE SLIGHTLY CONCERNED THAT SOME SNOW MAY MIX IN
ON THE HILLTOPS OF NW PA SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL MONITOR THIS
POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST SUNDAY. LAKE
ENHANCED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL LINGER IN THE FAR EASTERN PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE LAKE THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES ZONAL THE SECOND HALF OF SUNDAY WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. BY
MONDAY MORNING ANOTHER VORT MAX DIVES SOUTH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
AND THE SURFACE HIGH TRANSLATES OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. A WEAK
SURFACE LOW WILL FORM IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE...AND MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE MEASURABLE RAINFALL ON
MONDAY. WHILE THE AREA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW MOST OF
MONDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50`S.

THE RAIN WILL LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY AND EVENTUALLY COME TO AN END
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE HIGH FILLS AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD. THE REST OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE
DRY WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...DESPITE THE RIDGING.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SPIRALING OVERHEAD THE OHIO VALLEY. CONDITIONS WILL
VARY ACROSS THE SPECTRUM OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY DAYLIGHT
HOURS. AREAS OF FOG/LOW CEILINGS ACROSS THE WEST...TOL/FDY AND
ACROSS THE EAST YNG/GKJ. SOME THICKER CLOUD COVER ATOP THE FOG
WILL BE MOVING IN ACROSS TOL/FDY SO THINKING THERE IS THAT THERE
WILL BE SOME IMPROVEMENT AND HAVE ALLOWED THEM TO COME UP OUT OF
LIFR. ACROSS THE FAR EAST NOT AS OPTIMISTIC...BUT ALSO NOT
ENTIRELY CONFIDENT THEY WILL TANK EITHER AS THEY ARE ON THE
FRINGES OF SOME OF THE MID CLOUD DECK. ACROSS THE MIDDLE
CONDITIONS ARE A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR...AND FIGURE WITH TIME
TONIGHT THEY TOO WILL HIT IFR FOR A WHILE. LOW CONFIDENCE IN ALL
OF THE EXACT DETAILS WITH VARIABILITY EXPECTED. UPPER LOW STICKS
AROUND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON THURSDAY AND CAN EXPECT ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS. ONLY COULD PUT A VCSH IN AT THIS POINT. CALM
WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY GAIN A WEST DIRECTION BY AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR INTO EARLY FRIDAY...THEN AGAIN ON SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER INDIANA WILL MOVE TO NEAR LAKE ONTARIO
OVERNIGHT. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS ON LAKE ERIE WILL BACK TO NORTHWEST
BY THURSDAY MORNING AND THEN SOUTHWEST AGAIN BY THURSDAY EVENING AS
THE LOW CURLS NW INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20
KNOTS ON EXTREME EASTERN LAKE ERIE BY THURSDAY EVENING...THEN
INCREASE TO 20-25 KNOTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY(EAST HALF) AS
THIS LOW MERGES WITH THE NEXT LOW MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ON THE EAST END
STARTING SOMETIME ON FRIDAY...EXPANDING TO ALL NEARSHORE WATERS
EARLY SATURDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. THE SMALL CRAFTS
WILL NEED TO LINGER INTO SUNDAY WHEN CONDITIONS START TO IMPROVE AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE LAKE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA/LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...MAYERS
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...KEC






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CLEVELAND OH

 1238 AM EDT THU OCT 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER INDIANA WILL WOBBLE ACROSS THE REGION INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOVING NORTHWARD AND STRENGTHENING OVER
EASTERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. THERE WILL BE SEVERAL TROUGHS THAT
ROTATE AROUND THE LOW WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVING FRIDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
DID SOME ADJUSTING OF THE POPS BUT DID CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF POPS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. ADDED PATCHY DENSE FOG TO A LARGE
AREA. THE CLOUDS DECREASE AT TIMES AND THEN THE DENSE FOG FORMS AND
THEN WHEN THE CLOUDS MOVES BACK IN THE VISIBILITY USUALLY
IMPROVES. THE HRRR MODEL TRIES TO INDICATE A LARGE AREA OF DENSE
FOG DEVELOPING OVER NW OHIO. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR WHETHER THIS
ACTUALLY OCCURS WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS ROTATING INTO NW OHIO DURING
THE NIGHT.

MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE LOWS BASED ON MIDNIGHT TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS IN A BAND HAVE BECOME MORE PREVALENT FROM ABOUT CUYAHOGA
COUNTY SOUTHEAST INTO MAHONING COUNTY. LOCAL AND MESOSCALE MODELS
DID NOT HANDLE THIS SCENARIO VERY WELL. WILL UPDATE TO INCLUDE
GREATER POPS OVER THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREA AND A CHANCE ELSEWHERE.
OTHERWISE...NO OTHER MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A STRONGER PIECE OF ENERGY WILL ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LOW ON
THURSDAY WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING AS IT MOVES FROM
WESTERN NY INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO. AS THE LOW PIVOTS NORTHWARD IT
WILL PULL A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE THE
HIGHEST ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA BUT ALL LOCATIONS WILL
EXPERIENCE SCATTERED SHOWERS. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH COOLER AIR
FLOWING ACROSS THE LAKE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY TO KEEP SOME
LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS GOING. THESE WILL MAINLY BE OVER NE OHIO INTO
NW PA. IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE A DRY PERIOD FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF
THE NEXT MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT MAY BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL SPILL
ACROSS THE LAKE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH NE OHIO AND NW PA GETTING MOST
OF THE SHOWERS. WE ARE SLIGHTLY CONCERNED THAT SOME SNOW MAY MIX IN
ON THE HILLTOPS OF NW PA SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL MONITOR THIS
POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST SUNDAY. LAKE
ENHANCED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL LINGER IN THE FAR EASTERN PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE LAKE THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES ZONAL THE SECOND HALF OF SUNDAY WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. BY
MONDAY MORNING ANOTHER VORT MAX DIVES SOUTH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
AND THE SURFACE HIGH TRANSLATES OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. A WEAK
SURFACE LOW WILL FORM IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE...AND MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE MEASURABLE RAINFALL ON
MONDAY. WHILE THE AREA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW MOST OF
MONDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50`S.

THE RAIN WILL LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY AND EVENTUALLY COME TO AN END
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE HIGH FILLS AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD. THE REST OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE
DRY WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...DESPITE THE RIDGING.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR INDIANAPOLIS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. AS IT DOES IFR CONDITIONS
WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR AT TIMES THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
FRIDAY...THEN AGAIN ON SATURDAY IN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER INDIANA WILL MOVE TO NEAR LAKE ONTARIO
OVERNIGHT. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS ON LAKE ERIE WILL BACK TO NORTHWEST
BY THURSDAY MORNING AND THEN SOUTHWEST AGAIN BY THURSDAY EVENING AS
THE LOW CURLS NW INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20
KNOTS ON EXTREME EASTERN LAKE ERIE BY THURSDAY EVENING...THEN
INCREASE TO 20-25 KNOTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY(EAST HALF) AS
THIS LOW MERGES WITH THE NEXT LOW MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ON THE EAST END
STARTING SOMETIME ON FRIDAY...EXPANDING TO ALL NEARSHORE WATERS
EARLY SATURDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. THE SMALL CRAFTS
WILL NEED TO LINGER INTO SUNDAY WHEN CONDITIONS START TO IMPROVE AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE LAKE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA/LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...MAYERS
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...KEC







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

 422 PM EDT THU OCT 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ACCOMPANIED BY A SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EVE
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH EARLY FRIDAY. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL THEN SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A SHARP COOLING TREND FOR THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE LOWER GR LAKES WILL LIFT THROUGH THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. COOL AIR ALOFT AND MODEST AFTERNOON HEATING WILL
PROVIDE SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY...SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

LATEST HRRR SUPPORTS THE FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THE SHOWERS OVER
MY SWRN ZONES...SPREADING NE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE
FADING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING. BRIEF DOWNPOURS MAY
DROP A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN IN A FEW SPOTS...BUT MOST
LOCATIONS THAT SEE RAIN WILL HAVE AMOUNTS OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS ON
AVERAGE.

THE OVERNIGHT WILL FEATURE BREEZY WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW. SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY FAVORING
WESTERN AND NORTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN.

LOWS IN THE 40S WILL AVERAGE 5-10 DEG ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
DEEP LAYER FLOW GRADUALLY BACKS TO THE SW FRIDAY AS A FLAT RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES EAST ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAD
TO ANOTHER PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY...WITH MOST CLOUDS AND A
FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGHER COUNTRY. CENTRAL
AND EASTERN AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

FRIDAY`S HIGHS IN THE 60S WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CLOSED LOW ALOFT CURRENTLY NEAR THE THUMB OF LOWER MI WILL LIFT
INTO SOUTHEAST ONTARIO ON FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...A COMPACT SHORTWAVE
WILL TRANSLATE QUICKLY ESEWD THROUGH THE DAKOTAS/MN AND AMPLIFY
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRI-SAT...MERGING WITH THE PREVIOUS CLOSED
LOW AND ULTIMATELY HELPING TO REINFORCE A LARGER SCALE TROUGH OVER
THE NORTHEAST SECTOR OF THE CONUS. THE MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE DIGGING RATHER SHARPLY EWD THROUGH THE OH VLY INTO THE
MID-ATLC STATES LATER SAT-SUN. THIS ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO GO NEG
TILT AS IT REACHES NEW ENGLAND ON SUN. YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS FCST TO DIG INTO THE UPPER MS VLY ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL
LKLY INFLUENCE THE PATTERN OVER THE NE CONUS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK...AS MODEL AND ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS SHOWS DOWNSTREAM
TROUGH AMPLIFICATION AND A POSSIBLE CUT-OFF LOW FORMING OVER THE
MID ATLC REGION.

FOR SENSIBLE WX HIGHLIGHTS...GUSTY/COLDER NW FLOW IN THE WAKE OF
FROPA EARLY SATURDAY SHOULD SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT/UPSLOPE RAIN
SHOWERS /POSSIBLY MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS SAT NGT/
OVER THE WESTERN HIGHLANDS AND DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE. POPS WERE
ELEVATED OVER THESE AREAS GIVEN FAVORABLE PATTERN AND STRONG MODEL
AGREEMENT. HP SPELLS A BRIEF RESPITE IN PCPN ACTIVITY FROM LATER
SUN INTO EARLY MONDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS SUPPORTS SFC WAVE OVER THE
GREAT LAKES BY 12Z MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A TRANSFER OF ENERGY OFF THE
EAST COAST AROUND 00Z WED. AT THIS POINT THERE IS AT LEAST AVG
CONFIDENCE IN A CLOSED LOW ALOFT OVER THE MID ATLC STATES AND
ASSOCD SFC LOW PRES NEAR/OFFSHORE THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. WHILE
THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING THE PCPN PATTERN DURING
THE LATER PERIODS...FELT THAT IT WAS PRUDENT TO RAISE POPS IN THE
OUTER PERIODS ESPECIALLY OVER THE ERN PRTNS OF THE CWA AS THE
PATTERN IS LOOKING RATHER UNSETTLED. TEMPS WILL AVG ON THE CHILLY
SIDE OF CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SWING THRU THE AREA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH LOCAL RESTRICTIONS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE PRECIPITATION. BEST CHANCE FOR REDUCED CEILINGS/VIZ WILL
BE OVER THE WESTERN 1/2 OF THE FORECAST AREA...HIGHER TERRAIN
TERMINALS.

SHOWERS/THUNDER WILL TEND TO DWINDLE THIS EVENING AS WE LOSE
HEATING. MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO LINGER OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN
TERMINALS FROM JST NORTH THROUGH BFD...WHILE CEILINGS IN THE
3000-5000` RANGE WILL BE MORE LIKELY OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN
AREAS.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE N/W...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR. GUSTY SFC
WINDS 15-25KT FROM 240-270.

SAT...MVFR CIGS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY N/W. SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS WEST SAT NIGHT. GUSTY SFC WINDS
15-25KT FROM 270-300.

SUN...MVFR EARLY BECOMING VFR. DECREASING WINDS.

MON...NO SIG WX.

TUE...MVFR/SHOWERS AS A SLOW MOVING SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE GR
LAKES.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

 237 PM EDT THU OCT 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A DEEP UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ACCOMPANIED BY A SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EVE
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH EARLY FRIDAY. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL THEN SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A SHARP COOLING TREND FOR THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

THE UPPER LOW OVER THE LOWER GR LAKES WILL LIFT THROUGH THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. COOL AIR ALOFT AND MODEST AFTERNOON HEATING WILL
PROVIDE SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY...SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

LATEST HRRR SUPPORTS THE FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THE SHOWERS OVER
MY SWRN ZONES...SPREADING NE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE
FADING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING. BRIEF DOWNPOURS MAY
DROP A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN IN A FEW SPOTS...BUT MOST
LOCATIONS THAT SEE RAIN WILL HAVE AMOUNTS OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS ON
AVERAGE.

THE OVERNIGHT WILL FEATURE BREEZY WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW. SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY FAVORING
WESTERN AND NORTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN.

LOWS IN THE 40S WILL AVERAGE 5-10 DEG ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...

DEEP LAYER FLOW GRADUALLY BACKS TO THE SW FRIDAY AS A FLAT RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES EAST ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAD
TO ANOTHER PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY...WITH MOST CLOUDS AND A
FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGHER COUNTRY. CENTRAL
AND EASTERN AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

FRIDAY`S HIGHS IN THE 60S WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD IS DOMINATED BY BROAD TROF BRINGING MUCH COOLER
AND GENERALLY CLOUDY WEATHER TO THE AREA. A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES
WILL BRING LOW CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION...BUT MOST OF THE TIME
WILL BE PERCEPTION FREE. SECONDARY SHOT OF COLDER AIR ARRIVES LATE
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. COOLEST DAY IN THE PERIOD WILL BE ON SUNDAY
WITH MANY LOCATIONS WILL STRUGGLE TO LEAVE THE 40S FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

AN UPPER LEVEL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SWING THRU THE AREA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH LOCAL RESTRICTIONS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE PRECIPITATION. BEST CHANCE FOR REDUCED CEILINGS/VIZ WILL
BE OVER THE WESTERN 1/2 OF THE FORECAST AREA...HIGHER TERRAIN
TERMINALS.

SHOWERS/THUNDER WILL TEND TO DWINDLE THIS EVENING AS WE LOSE
HEATING. MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO LINGER OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN
TERMINALS FROM JST NORTH THROUGH BFD...WHILE CEILINGS IN THE
3000-5000` RANGE WILL BE MORE LIKELY OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN
AREAS.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE N/W...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR. GUSTY SFC
WINDS 15-25KT FROM 240-270.

SAT...MVFR CIGS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY N/W. SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS WEST SAT NIGHT. GUSTY SFC WINDS
15-25KT FROM 270-300.

SUN...MVFR EARLY BECOMING VFR. DECREASING WINDS.

MON...NO SIG WX.

TUE...MVFR/SHOWERS AS A SLOW MOVING SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE GR
LAKES.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...ROSS/LAMBERT
AVIATION...LA CORTE



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MEMPHIS TN

 1143 PM CDT WED OCT 15 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 932 PM CDT WED OCT 15 2014/

UPDATE...
MIDEVENING GOES IR IMAGERY SHOWED MIDLEVEL OVERCAST CLOUDINESS...
ROUGHLY NORTHEAST OF A TUPELO TO MEMPHIS TO JONESBORO LINE.
DAYTIME TEMPS WERE CONSIDERABLY COOLER UNDER THE OVERCAST...BUT
LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WERE ALLOWING AREAS TO THE SOUTHWEST
TO COOL MORE QUICKLY.

SOME CONCERN FOR PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT...NEAR THE CLEARING LINE.
12Z HRRR MODEL PROGGED BRIEF /1 HOUR/ VISIBILITY REDUCTION TO 4
MILES NEAR CORINTH AND JACKSON...BUT OTHERWISE LITTLE FOG
POTENTIAL.

PWB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 PM CDT WED OCT 15 2014/

UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT WED OCT 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...

CURRENT H5 ANALYSIS PLACES AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER CENTRAL
INDIANA WITH THE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL
KENTUCKY...EASTERN TENNESSEE...AND PORTIONS OF GEORGIA AND
ALABAMA. AN ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW IS ALSO CENTERED IN CENTRAL
INDIANA WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST. THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS BROAD UPPER TROUGH HAS PROVIDED CLOUD COVER
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY AND ALSO PRODUCED VERY LIGHT SHOWERS
EARLIER IN THE DAY. OVERNIGHT CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST WITH NO SIGNIFICANT POPS AS LOWS WILL
BE NEAR NORMAL FOR MID OCTOBER.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON
THURSDAY AS UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS BUILD OVER THE AREA. WINDS FROM
THE EAST WILL BE LIGHTER AND WILL SHIFT ON THURSDAY NIGHT TO BE
FROM THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER ON FRIDAY WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT. MOISTURE
WILL BE LIMITED WITH THIS FRONT...SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY
SIGNIFICANT POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER ON SATURDAY UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE RAIN FREE AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE
THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL PROVIDE PLEASANT CONDITIONS AND
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

MODELS INDICATE A SHORTWAVE MOVING JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
MIDSOUTH ON MONDAY. NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE LIES IN CURRENT
SOLUTIONS AND MODELS DO NOT INDICATE MUCH MOISTURE PRESENT FOR ANY
SIGNIFICANT POPS. FOR NOW HAVE JUST INCLUDED PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES FOR PARTS OF THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY PM WITH JUST
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR POPS. AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EAST
COAST MOVES FURTHER EAST...MODELS INDICATE A RIDGE MOVING INTO THE
REGION LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. THUS
HAVE KEPT CONDITIONS DRY LATE IN THE PERIOD.

ZDM
&&
AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE

PATCHY MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT MKL/TUP BETWEEN 16/08-12Z.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE TO WEST WINDS BETWEEN 5-7 KTS AFTER
16/15Z...THEN BECOME LIGHT AFTER 17/00Z.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

 707 PM EDT THU OCT 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA TONIGHT ALLOWING WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN ON FRIDAY.
ANOTHER FAST MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATER FRIDAY BEFORE
SLIDING THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FOLLOW THE FRONT ON SATURDAY RESULTING IN COOLER AND DRIER
WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 610 PM EDT THURSDAY...

ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES WITH LATEST OBC AND MODELS TRENDS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. MODIFIED CLOUD COVER ALLOWING FOR MORE
SUNSHINE. ADJUSTED POPS TOWARDS THE HRRR WITH DECREASING CHANCES
OF INSTABILITY SHOWERS GOING INTO TONIGHT. MORE CHANGES LATER
TONIGHT.


AS OF 300 PM EDT THURSDAY...

INSTABILITY SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND
WANE FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. THE RESPONSIBLE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS WILL HEAD EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. BEHIND IT...NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO ROUGHLY 25-30KTS AT 850 MB. DECOUPLING OF
SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND WITHIN MOST OF
THE MOUNTAINS VALLEYS. HOWEVER...THE INCREASE AND LOWERING OF
THESE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WILL HELP MAINTAIN A BREEZE TONIGHT AT
THE RIDGE TOPS ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME GUSTS AROUND 25
MPH BETWEEN ROUGHLY MIDNIGHT AND 6AM. THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL HELP
MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS WILL YIELD NO OR VERY LIMITED CLOUD COVER
EAST OF THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID TO UPPER 40S
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

ON FRIDAY...LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL CAUSE THE
WEST TO LOSE ITS UPSLOPE COMPONENT...AND MOST AREAS BY MIDDAY WILL
BE MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY ACROSS THE REGION. SURFACE WINDS WILL
START THE DAY LIGHT AND VARIABLE...OR LIGHT FROM THE SOUTHWEST
THEN INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO THE
LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT THURSDAY...

CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER ONTARIO CANADA WILL DUMBBELL SOUTHWEST ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND AS A SHORT WAVE
MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THEN PHASES WITH
THE GREAT LAKES TROUGH. THIS WILL SEND A CLIPPER LIKE SURFACE
FRONT THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY WITH A BRIEF SHOT OF
COOL AIR FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO BE MOISTURE STARVED...SO LITTLE IN THE WAY OF QPF ANTICIPATED.
THE MOUNTAINS MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT PASSES OVER THE
MOUNTAINS SHOULD DRY UP IN THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE THAT DEVELOPS IN
THE WAKE OF THE FROPA.

TEMPERATURES SATURDAY...AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD REMAIN
MILD...ALTHOUGH INCREASING CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM MAY
INHIBIT HEATING WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND ESPECIALLY EASTERN
WV AND FAR SW VA. AFTER FROPA...SURGE OF COOLER AIR IS FORCED INTO
THE REGION UNDER BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS. 850 MB TEMPS TAKE A PLUNGE
TO ZERO CELCIUS BY MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT...BEFORE RECOVERING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ANY LINGERING MOISTURE SATURDAY NIGHT MAY MIX
WITH A FEW SNOWFLAKES IN THE MTNS OF WV...MAINLY ABOVE 3000 FEET
IN ELEVATION. GROUND TEMPERATURES ARE STILL WELL ABOVE FREEZING SO
NO ACCUMULATION. TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE FOR SUNDAY WILL BE
CONSIDERABLY COOLER THAN SATURDAY...STRUGGLING TO REACH 50 IN THE
MTNS AND 60 EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THE BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
DIMINISH QUICKLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES
CENTERED OVER THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT THURSDAY...

PROGRESSIVE PATTERN SUPPORTS ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM FOR MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...SHORT WAVE COMING FROM THE NORTHWEST AND
SENDING ANOTHER FRONT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. ATTM MODELS INDICATE
LITTLE SUPPORT FOR PRECIP...EXCEPT FOR THE MOUNTAINS. THERE ARE
SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS WHICH SUGGEST THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
TRIGGER THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL STORM AS THE ENERGY PASSES
OFF THE DELMARVA. EVEN THOUGH THIS DOES NOT PRECIPITATE INTO MUCH
OF A QPF PRODUCER FOR OUR REGION...THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE COULD
RESULT IN A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER FOR MID WEEK THAN WHAT WE HAVE
BEEN FORECASTING. FOR NOW...WILL TREND CLOUD COVER UP FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AND LOWER TEMPERATURES.
&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 650 PM EDT THURSDAY...

LOW CLOUDS INCLUDING MVFR CIGS LIKELY TO PREVAIL OVER THE SE WEST
VIRGINIA LOCATIONS THIS EVENING...WITH A MIX OF VFR TO MVFR EAST
TO THE BLUE RIDGE...AND MAINLY VFR UNDER SCATTERED/BKN CLOUDS OUT
EAST. COULD STILL SEE A FEW ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS EARLY THIS
EVENING BEFORE COVERAGE TOTALLY FADES WITH LOSS OF HEATING. THUS ONLY
INCLUDING A MENTION AT PERHAPS KBLF WHERE SOMEWHAT DEEPER MOISTURE
RESIDES.

OVERNIGHT...AN INCREASED NORTHWEST JET ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
TROUGH SHOULD HELP MAINTAIN OR INCREASE IN COVERAGE THE AMOUNT OF
UPSLOPE MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR FOR MAINLY SPEED DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND ABOUT
2000 FT AGL IS EXPECTED BETWEEN ROUGHLY 04Z/MIDNIGHT AND 12Z/8AM
WHEN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS AND WEAKENS...AND SURFACE WINDS
START TO INCREASE. LIMITED MVFR/IFR VALLEY FOG IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP TONIGHT PENDING DEGREE OF RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER. MOST WILL
BE IN THE PREFERRED RIVER VALLEYS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...AND ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION ONCE WESTERN MVFR CIGS SCATTER OUT AROUND
14-15Z/10-11AM.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...TWO FAST MOVING CLIPPER
SYSTEMS WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND BRING
THEIR ASSOCIATED FRONTS THROUGH OUR REGION. WHILE EASTERN PARTS
OF THE AREA ARE EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS...THE
PREFERRED UPSLOPE REGIONS IN THE WEST MAY SEE A COUPLE ROUNDS OF
MVFR CIGS AND SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS
WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AND THEN AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY WHEN IT MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR THE FIRST SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS OF THE SEASON. EACH OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL ALSO HELP
TO RAMP UP SURFACE WINDS WITH GUSTS APPROACH 30 KTS AT THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...DS/KK
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...DS/JH




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

 612 PM EDT THU OCT 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO
WITH A COLD FRONT ACRING SOUTHEAST THROUGH NEW ENGLAND AND
EXTENDING WELL OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDED FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SOUTH INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 610 PM EDT THURSDAY...

ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES WITH LATEST OBC AND MODELS TRENDS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. MODIFIED CLOUD COVER ALLOWING FOR MORE
SUNSHINE. ADJUSTED POPS TOWARDS THE HRRR WITH DECREASING CHANCES
OF INSTABILITY SHOWERS GOING INTO TONIGHT. MORE CHANGES LATER
TONIGHT.


AS OF 300 PM EDT THURSDAY...

INSTABILITY SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND
WANE FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. THE RESPONSIBLE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS WILL HEAD EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. BEHIND IT...NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO ROUGHLY 25-30KTS AT 850 MB. DECOUPLING OF
SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND WITHIN MOST OF
THE MOUNTAINS VALLEYS. HOWEVER...THE INCREASE AND LOWERING OF
THESE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WILL HELP MAINTAIN A BREEZE TONIGHT AT
THE RIDGE TOPS ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME GUSTS AROUND 25
MPH BETWEEN ROUGHLY MIDNIGHT AND 6AM. THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL HELP
MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS WILL YIELD NO OR VERY LIMITED CLOUD COVER
EAST OF THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID TO UPPER 40S
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

ON FRIDAY...LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL CAUSE THE
WEST TO LOSE ITS UPSLOPE COMPONENT...AND MOST AREAS BY MIDDAY WILL
BE MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY ACROSS THE REGION. SURFACE WINDS WILL
START THE DAY LIGHT AND VARIABLE...OR LIGHT FROM THE SOUTHWEST
THEN INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO THE
LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT THURSDAY...

CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER ONTARIO CANADA WILL DUMBBELL SOUTHWEST ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND AS A SHORT WAVE
MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THEN PHASES WITH
THE GREAT LAKES TROUGH. THIS WILL SEND A CLIPPER LIKE SURFACE
FRONT THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY WITH A BRIEF SHOT OF
COOL AIR FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO BE MOISTURE STARVED...SO LITTLE IN THE WAY OF QPF ANTICIPATED.
THE MOUNTAINS MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT PASSES OVER THE
MOUNTAINS SHOULD DRY UP IN THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE THAT DEVELOPS IN
THE WAKE OF THE FROPA.

TEMPERATURES SATURDAY...AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD REMAIN
MILD...ALTHOUGH INCREASING CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM MAY
INHIBIT HEATING WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND ESPECIALLY EASTERN
WV AND FAR SW VA. AFTER FROPA...SURGE OF COOLER AIR IS FORCED INTO
THE REGION UNDER BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS. 850 MB TEMPS TAKE A PLUNGE
TO ZERO CELCIUS BY MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT...BEFORE RECOVERING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ANY LINGERING MOISTURE SATURDAY NIGHT MAY MIX
WITH A FEW SNOWFLAKES IN THE MTNS OF WV...MAINLY ABOVE 3000 FEET
IN ELEVATION. GROUND TEMPERATURES ARE STILL WELL ABOVE FREEZING SO
NO ACCUMULATION. TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE FOR SUNDAY WILL BE
CONSIDERABLY COOLER THAN SATURDAY...STRUGGLING TO REACH 50 IN THE
MTNS AND 60 EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THE BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
DIMINISH QUICKLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES
CENTERED OVER THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT THURSDAY...

PROGRESSIVE PATTERN SUPPORTS ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM FOR MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...SHORT WAVE COMING FROM THE NORTHWEST AND
SENDING ANOTHER FRONT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. ATTM MODELS INDICATE
LITTLE SUPPORT FOR PRECIP...EXCEPT FOR THE MOUNTAINS. THERE ARE
SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS WHICH SUGGEST THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
TRIGGER THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL STORM AS THE ENERGY PASSES
OFF THE DELMARVA. EVEN THOUGH THIS DOES NOT PRECIPITATE INTO MUCH
OF A QPF PRODUCER FOR OUR REGION...THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE COULD
RESULT IN A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER FOR MID WEEK THAN WHAT WE HAVE
BEEN FORECASTING. FOR NOW...WILL TREND CLOUD COVER UP FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AND LOWER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT THURSDAY...

PRIMARILY MVFR CIGS AND VRF VSBYS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED INSTABILITY
SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS IN CONJUNCTION WITH
DAYTIME HEATING AND STEEP LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THIS AFTERNOON AND WANE AS THE SUN BEGINS TO SET. LITTLE ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO THE PIEDMONT AS WESTERLY
FLOW SHOULD HELP LIMIT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION.

OVERNIGHT...AN INCREASED NORTHWEST JET ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
TROUGH SHOULD HELP MAINTAIN OR INCREASE IN COVERAGE THE AMOUNT OF
UPSLOPE MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR FOR MAINLY SPEED DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND ABOUT
2000 FT AGL IS EXPECTED BETWEEN ROUGHLY 04Z/MIDNIGHT AND 12Z/8AM
WHEN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS AND WEAKENS...AND SURFACE WINDS
START TO INCREASE. LIMITED MVFR/IFR VALLEY FOG IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP TONIGHT. MOST WILL BE IN THE PREFERRED RIVER VALLEYS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...AND ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION ONCE WESTERN MVFR CIGS SCATTER AROUND
14-15Z/10-11AM.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...TWO FAST MOVING CLIPPER
SYSTEMS WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND BRING
THEIR ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXES INTO AND TROUGH OUR REGION. WHILE
EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA ARE EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN VFR
CONDITIONS...THE PREFERRED UPSLOPE REGIONS IN THE WEST MAY SEE A
COUPLE ROUNDS OF MVFR CIGS AND SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THIS WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AND THEN
AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WHEN IT MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR THE
FIRST SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OF THE SEASON. EACH OF THESE SYSTEMS
WILL ALSO HELP TO RAMP UP SURFACE WINDS WITH GUSTS APPROACH 30 KTS
AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/PM
NEAR TERM...DS/KK
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...DS



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

 144 PM EDT THU OCT 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS OVER LAKE ERIE WITH A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1240 PM EDT THURSDAY...

THE AREA OF LIGHT RAIN THAT MOVED INTO WESTERN PARTS OF THE
REGION HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE PAST HOUR. ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON THANKS TO SURFACE HEATING AND STEEP LAPSE
RATES ALOFT. THE FOCUS FOR THE BEST COVERAGE STILL IS EXPECTED TO
BE ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA. HAVE MADE SMALL ADJUSTMENTS
UPWARD IN MOST LOCATIONS FOR HIGHER MAX TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY
BASED UPON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND EXPECTED TRENDS IN AREAS
THAT WILL EXPERIENCE SOME SUNSHINE TODAY.

AS OF 940 AM EDT THURSDAY...

REGIONAL RADARS ARE DEPICTING A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS MOVING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH KY/WV. THE LEADING EDGE IS JUST STARTING TO
REACH THE FAR WESTERN PARTS OF OUR REGION BETWEEN ROUGHLY TAZEWELL
AND RICHLANDS VA. PREVAILING FLOW AROUND THE UPPER LOW JUST
ADVECT THIS ACTIVITY INTO MAINLY THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. HAVE INCREASED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY ACROSS A GREATER
SWATH OF THE REGION THAN PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED...SPECIFICALLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA. HAVE ALSO
EXTENDED THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FARTHER EAST THIS MORNING
BASED UPON SOME LIGHT RETURNS ON KFCX RADAR IN THIS REGION AND
BOTH HRRR AND RNK WRK ARW MODEL PROJECTIONS THE NEXT FEW HOURS. NO
OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

AS OF 430 AM EDT THURSDAY...

DEEP UPPER LOW OVER OHIO DRIFTS NORTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. TROF
AXIS WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE TONIGHT. UNTIL
THEN...THREE SHORT WAVES CROSS THE AREA. MODELS HAVE ONE OF THESE
WAVES CROSSING THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST
AREAS WILL STILL BE UNDER THE COLD CORE OF THE UPPER LOW. WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS. 850
MB WINDS FROM THE WEST AT 30-35 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. SHUD BE ENOUGH
MIXING FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.

WATER VAPOR LOOP AND MODELS HAD EXTENSIVE AREA OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE
WITH THE UPPER LOW. THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TODAY
AND BY THIS EVENING...MOISTURE WILL BE CONFINED TO LOW LEVELS IN THE
WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA.

BY 00Z/8PM...SURFACE THROUGH 850 MB WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST. THEN
SURFACE RIDGING FROM HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF COAST WILL BACK
WINDS. THIS WILL END THE MUCH OF THE UPSLOPE...EVEN IN THE FAR
WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA. HAVE TRIMMED BACK CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION AFTER MIDNIGHT.

STATED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY. EXPECTING ENOUGH CLEARING
IN ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHWEST TONIGHT FOR SOME DECENT RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS. WENT LOWER THAN GUIDANCE FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT THURSDAY...

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL
FINALLY BE LIFTING OUT OF THE REGION...BUT THE PARENT UPPER
LOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL ALLOW THE
UPPER LOW TO DUMBBELL BACK AROUND INTO THE REGION AS A SHORT WAVE
MOVES SOUTHEAST OUT OF ALBERTA AND ANOTHER SHORT WAVE...TRACKING
OVER AN UPPER RIDGE IN THE WESTERN STATES...PHASES WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE. THIS WILL SEND AN ALBERTA CLIPPER LIKE
SYSTEM INTO THE REGION FOR SAT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. FRI
HOWEVER...SHOULD BE ONE OF THE BEST DAYS IN THE LAST WEEK OR SO WITH
CONSIDERABLE AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE AND MILD TEMPS WITH WEST SFC FLOW
AND NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.

STRONG DYNAMICS ARE INDICATED WITH THE APPROACHING SHORT WAVE
WITH STRONG PVA SAT/SAT EVENING...BUT MOISTURE IS LIMITED. SFC FLOW
IS WEST AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...WHICH WILL FURTHER LIMIT MOISTURE
ADVECTION INTO THE REGION...AND PRODUCE DOWNSLOPING/DRYING EAST OF
THE ALLEGHANY FRONT. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT -SHRA WILL MOST
DEFINITELY DEVELOP WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT LATE
SATURDAY/SATURDAY EVENING...WITH PERHAPS A FEW SPRINKLES REACHING
THE BLUE RIDGE AS THE UPPER SHORT WAVE TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT
TOWARD 06Z SUN AND ROTATES THROUGH THE REGION. FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT
POPS IN THE CHC RANGE...BUT COULD SEE SOME LOW LIKELYS FROM WESTERN
GREENBRIER INTO NW SUMMERS SAT EVENING. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL
BE MILDER WITH WEST FLOW...BUT CONSIDERABLE MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER
WILL INHIBIT HEATING WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND ESPECIALLY EASTERN
WV/SW VA.

AS WE MOVE INTO SAT NIGHT AND THE SHORT WAVE TAKES ON A NEGATIVE
TILT AND ROTATES THROUGH THE PARENT TROUGH...A NEAR WINTERLIKE
PATTERN IS EVIDENT...AT LEAST FOR ABOUT 6 HOURS INTO SUN MORNING.
DECENT 15-20KT UPSLOPE COMPONENT INDICATED AND 850MB TEMPS DROP INTO
THE -2C RANGE WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT TOWARD 12Z SUN. DO FEEL
THAT THE UPSLOPE COMPONENT IS SUFFICIENT ENOUGH WITH THE INDICATED
850MB TEMPS AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...MAINLY ABOVE 3500 FT...TO
SUPPORT OUR FIRST -SHSN OF THE SEASON. THIS WOULD MAINLY AFFECT
WESTERN GREENBRIER NORTHWARD...POSSIBLY EXTREME NW SUMMERS. SFC
TEMPS WILL LIKELY REMAIN AOA FREEZING EXCEPT AT THE VERY HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS...SO NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED AT ALL. ANY -SHSN SHOULD BE
ENDING QUICKLY AFT 12Z SUN AS THE UPSLOPE COMPONENT BECOMES LESS
FAVORABLE AND THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT. TEMPERATURES SUN WILL BE
COOLER...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE 50S WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND A FEW 40S IN WESTERN GREENBRIER
WHERE UPSLOPE CLOUDS COULD LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH FAIRLY QUICKLY...HOWEVER...AS THE DAY PROGRESSES WITH THE
UPPER FLOW QUICKLY RESPONDING TO THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT THURSDAY...

PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH A SERIES OF NW FLOW SHORT
WAVES CONTINUING TO BE THE MAIN WEATHER MAKER FOR THE REGION. THE
MAIN CONCERN OF SIGNIFICANCE WILL BE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...WHEN SOME FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE EARLY SUN. HOWEVER...THE WIND MAY BE TOO
STRONG YET TO ALLOW FOR ANY WIDESPREAD FREEZE...WHICH HAS YET TO
OCCUR SO FAR THIS FALL. THIS WOULD BE THE LAST CHANCE FOR A FREEZE
FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH IS RAPIDLY
APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE MONDAY...WHICH
APPEARS SIMILAR TO THE SAT SYSTEM...ALBEIT LESS DYNAMIC AND OVERALL
FURTHER NORTH. THIS SHOULD BE FOLLOWED BY SEVERAL DAYS OF QUIET
WEATHER ONCE AGAIN WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR FREEZE/FROST COMING
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM EARLY THU.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT THURSDAY...

PRIMARILY MVFR CIGS AND VRF VSBYS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED INSTABILITY
SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS IN CONJUNCTION WITH
DAYTIME HEATING AND STEEP LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THIS AFTERNOON AND WANE AS THE SUN BEGINS TO SET. LITTLE ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO THE PIEDMONT AS WESTERLY
FLOW SHOULD HELP LIMIT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION.

OVERNIGHT...AN INCREASED NORTHWEST JET ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
TROUGH SHOULD HELP MAINTAIN OR INCREASE IN COVERAGE THE AMOUNT OF
UPSLOPE MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR FOR MAINLY SPEED DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND ABOUT
2000 FT AGL IS EXPECTED BETWEEN ROUGHLY 04Z/MIDNIGHT AND 12Z/8AM
WHEN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS AND WEAKENS...AND SURFACE WINDS
START TO INCREASE. LIMITED MVFR/IFR VALLEY FOG IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP TONIGHT. MOST WILL BE IN THE PREFERRED RIVER VALLEYS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...AND ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION ONCE WESTERN MVFR CIGS SCATTER AROUND
14-15Z/10-11AM.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...TWO FAST MOVING CLIPPER
SYSTEMS WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND BRING
THEIR ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXES INTO AND TROUGH OUR REGION. WHILE
EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA ARE EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN VFR
CONDITIONS...THE PREFERRED UPSLOPE REGIONS IN THE WEST MAY SEE A
COUPLE ROUNDS OF MVFR CIGS AND SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THIS WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AND THEN
AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WHEN IT MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR THE
FIRST SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OF THE SEASON. EACH OF THESE SYSTEMS
WILL ALSO HELP TO RAMP UP SURFACE WINDS WITH GUSTS APPROACH 30 KTS
AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/DS
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...PC/RAB
AVIATION...DS



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

 1241 PM EDT THU OCT 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS OVER LAKE ERIE WITH A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1240 PM EDT THURSDAY...

THE AREA OF LIGHT RAIN THAT MOVED INTO WESTERN PARTS OF THE
REGION HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE PAST HOUR. ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON THANKS TO SURFACE HEATING AND STEEP LAPSE
RATES ALOFT. THE FOCUS FOR THE BEST COVERAGE STILL IS EXPECTED TO
BE ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA. HAVE MADE SMALL ADJUSTMENTS
UPWARD IN MOST LOCATIONS FOR HIGHER MAX TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY
BASED UPON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND EXPECTED TRENDS IN AREAS
THAT WILL EXPERIENCE SOME SUNSHINE TODAY.

AS OF 940 AM EDT THURSDAY...

REGIONAL RADARS ARE DEPICTING A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS MOVING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH KY/WV. THE LEADING EDGE IS JUST STARTING TO
REACH THE FAR WESTERN PARTS OF OUR REGION BETWEEN ROUGHLY TAZEWELL
AND RICHLANDS VA. PREVAILING FLOW AROUND THE UPPER LOW JUST
ADVECT THIS ACTIVITY INTO MAINLY THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. HAVE INCREASED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY ACROSS A GREATER
SWATH OF THE REGION THAN PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED...SPECIFICALLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA. HAVE ALSO
EXTENDED THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FARTHER EAST THIS MORNING
BASED UPON SOME LIGHT RETURNS ON KFCX RADAR IN THIS REGION AND
BOTH HRRR AND RNK WRK ARW MODEL PROJECTIONS THE NEXT FEW HOURS. NO
OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

AS OF 430 AM EDT THURSDAY...

DEEP UPPER LOW OVER OHIO DRIFTS NORTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. TROF
AXIS WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE TONIGHT. UNTIL
THEN...THREE SHORT WAVES CROSS THE AREA. MODELS HAVE ONE OF THESE
WAVES CROSSING THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST
AREAS WILL STILL BE UNDER THE COLD CORE OF THE UPPER LOW. WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS. 850
MB WINDS FROM THE WEST AT 30-35 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. SHUD BE ENOUGH
MIXING FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.

WATER VAPOR LOOP AND MODELS HAD EXTENSIVE AREA OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE
WITH THE UPPER LOW. THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TODAY
AND BY THIS EVENING...MOISTURE WILL BE CONFINED TO LOW LEVELS IN THE
WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA.

BY 00Z/8PM...SURFACE THROUGH 850 MB WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST. THEN
SURFACE RIDGING FROM HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF COAST WILL BACK
WINDS. THIS WILL END THE MUCH OF THE UPSLOPE...EVEN IN THE FAR
WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA. HAVE TRIMMED BACK CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION AFTER MIDNIGHT.

STATED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY. EXPECTING ENOUGH CLEARING
IN ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHWEST TONIGHT FOR SOME DECENT RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS. WENT LOWER THAN GUIDANCE FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT THURSDAY...

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL
FINALLY BE LIFTING OUT OF THE REGION...BUT THE PARENT UPPER
LOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL ALLOW THE
UPPER LOW TO DUMBBELL BACK AROUND INTO THE REGION AS A SHORT WAVE
MOVES SOUTHEAST OUT OF ALBERTA AND ANOTHER SHORT WAVE...TRACKING
OVER AN UPPER RIDGE IN THE WESTERN STATES...PHASES WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE. THIS WILL SEND AN ALBERTA CLIPPER LIKE
SYSTEM INTO THE REGION FOR SAT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. FRI
HOWEVER...SHOULD BE ONE OF THE BEST DAYS IN THE LAST WEEK OR SO WITH
CONSIDERABLE AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE AND MILD TEMPS WITH WEST SFC FLOW
AND NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.

STRONG DYNAMICS ARE INDICATED WITH THE APPROACHING SHORT WAVE
WITH STRONG PVA SAT/SAT EVENING...BUT MOISTURE IS LIMITED. SFC FLOW
IS WEST AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...WHICH WILL FURTHER LIMIT MOISTURE
ADVECTION INTO THE REGION...AND PRODUCE DOWNSLOPING/DRYING EAST OF
THE ALLEGHANY FRONT. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT -SHRA WILL MOST
DEFINITELY DEVELOP WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT LATE
SATURDAY/SATURDAY EVENING...WITH PERHAPS A FEW SPRINKLES REACHING
THE BLUE RIDGE AS THE UPPER SHORT WAVE TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT
TOWARD 06Z SUN AND ROTATES THROUGH THE REGION. FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT
POPS IN THE CHC RANGE...BUT COULD SEE SOME LOW LIKELYS FROM WESTERN
GREENBRIER INTO NW SUMMERS SAT EVENING. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL
BE MILDER WITH WEST FLOW...BUT CONSIDERABLE MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER
WILL INHIBIT HEATING WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND ESPECIALLY EASTERN
WV/SW VA.

AS WE MOVE INTO SAT NIGHT AND THE SHORT WAVE TAKES ON A NEGATIVE
TILT AND ROTATES THROUGH THE PARENT TROUGH...A NEAR WINTERLIKE
PATTERN IS EVIDENT...AT LEAST FOR ABOUT 6 HOURS INTO SUN MORNING.
DECENT 15-20KT UPSLOPE COMPONENT INDICATED AND 850MB TEMPS DROP INTO
THE -2C RANGE WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT TOWARD 12Z SUN. DO FEEL
THAT THE UPSLOPE COMPONENT IS SUFFICIENT ENOUGH WITH THE INDICATED
850MB TEMPS AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...MAINLY ABOVE 3500 FT...TO
SUPPORT OUR FIRST -SHSN OF THE SEASON. THIS WOULD MAINLY AFFECT
WESTERN GREENBRIER NORTHWARD...POSSIBLY EXTREME NW SUMMERS. SFC
TEMPS WILL LIKELY REMAIN AOA FREEZING EXCEPT AT THE VERY HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS...SO NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED AT ALL. ANY -SHSN SHOULD BE
ENDING QUICKLY AFT 12Z SUN AS THE UPSLOPE COMPONENT BECOMES LESS
FAVORABLE AND THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT. TEMPERATURES SUN WILL BE
COOLER...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE 50S WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND A FEW 40S IN WESTERN GREENBRIER
WHERE UPSLOPE CLOUDS COULD LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH FAIRLY QUICKLY...HOWEVER...AS THE DAY PROGRESSES WITH THE
UPPER FLOW QUICKLY RESPONDING TO THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT THURSDAY...

PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH A SERIES OF NW FLOW SHORT
WAVES CONTINUING TO BE THE MAIN WEATHER MAKER FOR THE REGION. THE
MAIN CONCERN OF SIGNIFICANCE WILL BE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...WHEN SOME FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE EARLY SUN. HOWEVER...THE WIND MAY BE TOO
STRONG YET TO ALLOW FOR ANY WIDESPREAD FREEZE...WHICH HAS YET TO
OCCUR SO FAR THIS FALL. THIS WOULD BE THE LAST CHANCE FOR A FREEZE
FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH IS RAPIDLY
APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE MONDAY...WHICH
APPEARS SIMILAR TO THE SAT SYSTEM...ALBEIT LESS DYNAMIC AND OVERALL
FURTHER NORTH. THIS SHOULD BE FOLLOWED BY SEVERAL DAYS OF QUIET
WEATHER ONCE AGAIN WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR FREEZE/FROST COMING
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM EARLY THU.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 735 AM EDT THURSDAY...

IFR TO MVFR CLOUDS HAVE EXPANDED NORTH ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
WILL BE SPREADING INTO KBCB BEFORE 14Z/10AM. EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...BREAKS IN THE HIGH CLOUDS RESULTED IN PATCHY MVFR TO IFR
FOG FORMATION. EXPECT NO IMPACT FROM FOG AT KROA/KLYH AND KDAN.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WAS APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. MORE SHOWERS WILL POP UP BY MID TO LATE MORNING WITH
SOME DAYTIME HEATING...BUT AS FLOW BECOMES MORE W AND
NW...DOWNSLOPE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE SHOULD KEEP KDAN/KLYH OUT OF
THE SHRA. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ANYWHERE FROM KBCB
WEST INTO SE WEST VIRGINIA...MAINLY BETWEEN 15Z/11AM AND 21Z/5PM.

AFTER SUNSET...CLOUDS WILL CLEAR EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. MVFR
CEILINGS WILL HOLD IN MUCH OF THE NIGHT IN SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA...INCLUDING KBLF AND KLWB.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

BY FRIDAY...THE INITIAL PIECE OF THE 5H TROUGH WILL LIFT BACK
NORTH ALLOWING FOR A DRIER ZONAL FLOW TO BRIEFLY DEVELOP WHICH
WILL BRING WIDESPREAD VFR TO END THE WEEK. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT LACKING
MOISTURE BUT ENOUGH TO LIKELY WRING OUT SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCED MVFR
LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS SE WEST VIRGINIA WHERE A FEW SHRA WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME OF THIS CLOUD COVER MAY SPILL INTO
KBCB/KROA GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE NW FLOW WITH LESS CLOUDS TO
THE EAST PER DOWNSLOPE DRYING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH VFR EXPECTED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/DS
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...PC/RAB
AVIATION...AMS/JH



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

 944 AM EDT THU OCT 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS OVER LAKE ERIE WITH A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 940 AM EDT THURSDAY...

REGIONAL RADARS ARE DEPICTING A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS MOVING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH KY/WV. THE LEADING EDGE IS JUST STARTING TO
REACH THE FAR WESTERN PARTS OF OUR REGION BETWEEN ROUGHLY TAZEWELL
AND RICHLANDS VA. PREVAILING FLOW AROUND THE UPPER LOW JUST
ADVECT THIS ACTIVITY INTO MAINLY THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. HAVE INCREASED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY ACROSS A GREATER
SWATH OF THE REGION THAN PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED...SPECIFICALLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA. HAVE ALSO
EXTENDED THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FARTHER EAST THIS MORNING
BASED UPON SOME LIGHT RETURNS ON KFCX RADAR IN THIS REGION AND
BOTH HRRR AND RNK WRK ARW MODEL PROJECTIONS THE NEXT FEW HOURS. NO
OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

AS OF 430 AM EDT THURSDAY...

DEEP UPPER LOW OVER OHIO DRIFTS NORTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. TROF
AXIS WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE TONIGHT. UNTIL
THEN...THREE SHORT WAVES CROSS THE AREA. MODELS HAVE ONE OF THESE
WAVES CROSSING THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST
AREAS WILL STILL BE UNDER THE COLD CORE OF THE UPPER LOW. WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS. 850
MB WINDS FROM THE WEST AT 30-35 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. SHUD BE ENOUGH
MIXING FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.

WATER VAPOR LOOP AND MODELS HAD EXTENSIVE AREA OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE
WITH THE UPPER LOW. THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TODAY
AND BY THIS EVENING...MOISTURE WILL BE CONFINED TO LOW LEVELS IN THE
WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA.

BY 00Z/8PM...SURFACE THROUGH 850 MB WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST. THEN
SURFACE RIDGING FROM HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF COAST WILL BACK
WINDS. THIS WILL END THE MUCH OF THE UPSLOPE...EVEN IN THE FAR
WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA. HAVE TRIMMED BACK CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION AFTER MIDNIGHT.

STATED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY. EXPECTING ENOUGH CLEARING
IN ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHWEST TONIGHT FOR SOME DECENT RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS. WENT LOWER THAN GUIDANCE FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT THURSDAY...

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL
FINALLY BE LIFTING OUT OF THE REGION...BUT THE PARENT UPPER
LOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL ALLOW THE
UPPER LOW TO DUMBBELL BACK AROUND INTO THE REGION AS A SHORT WAVE
MOVES SOUTHEAST OUT OF ALBERTA AND ANOTHER SHORT WAVE...TRACKING
OVER AN UPPER RIDGE IN THE WESTERN STATES...PHASES WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE. THIS WILL SEND AN ALBERTA CLIPPER LIKE
SYSTEM INTO THE REGION FOR SAT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. FRI
HOWEVER...SHOULD BE ONE OF THE BEST DAYS IN THE LAST WEEK OR SO WITH
CONSIDERABLE AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE AND MILD TEMPS WITH WEST SFC FLOW
AND NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.

STRONG DYNAMICS ARE INDICATED WITH THE APPROACHING SHORT WAVE
WITH STRONG PVA SAT/SAT EVENING...BUT MOISTURE IS LIMITED. SFC FLOW
IS WEST AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...WHICH WILL FURTHER LIMIT MOISTURE
ADVECTION INTO THE REGION...AND PRODUCE DOWNSLOPING/DRYING EAST OF
THE ALLEGHANY FRONT. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT -SHRA WILL MOST
DEFINITELY DEVELOP WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT LATE
SATURDAY/SATURDAY EVENING...WITH PERHAPS A FEW SPRINKLES REACHING
THE BLUE RIDGE AS THE UPPER SHORT WAVE TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT
TOWARD 06Z SUN AND ROTATES THROUGH THE REGION. FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT
POPS IN THE CHC RANGE...BUT COULD SEE SOME LOW LIKELYS FROM WESTERN
GREENBRIER INTO NW SUMMERS SAT EVENING. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL
BE MILDER WITH WEST FLOW...BUT CONSIDERABLE MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER
WILL INHIBIT HEATING WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND ESPECIALLY EASTERN
WV/SW VA.

AS WE MOVE INTO SAT NIGHT AND THE SHORT WAVE TAKES ON A NEGATIVE
TILT AND ROTATES THROUGH THE PARENT TROUGH...A NEAR WINTERLIKE
PATTERN IS EVIDENT...AT LEAST FOR ABOUT 6 HOURS INTO SUN MORNING.
DECENT 15-20KT UPSLOPE COMPONENT INDICATED AND 850MB TEMPS DROP INTO
THE -2C RANGE WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT TOWARD 12Z SUN. DO FEEL
THAT THE UPSLOPE COMPONENT IS SUFFICIENT ENOUGH WITH THE INDICATED
850MB TEMPS AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...MAINLY ABOVE 3500 FT...TO
SUPPORT OUR FIRST -SHSN OF THE SEASON. THIS WOULD MAINLY AFFECT
WESTERN GREENBRIER NORTHWARD...POSSIBLY EXTREME NW SUMMERS. SFC
TEMPS WILL LIKELY REMAIN AOA FREEZING EXCEPT AT THE VERY HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS...SO NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED AT ALL. ANY -SHSN SHOULD BE
ENDING QUICKLY AFT 12Z SUN AS THE UPSLOPE COMPONENT BECOMES LESS
FAVORABLE AND THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT. TEMPERATURES SUN WILL BE
COOLER...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE 50S WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND A FEW 40S IN WESTERN GREENBRIER
WHERE UPSLOPE CLOUDS COULD LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH FAIRLY QUICKLY...HOWEVER...AS THE DAY PROGRESSES WITH THE
UPPER FLOW QUICKLY RESPONDING TO THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT THURSDAY...

PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH A SERIES OF NW FLOW SHORT
WAVES CONTINUING TO BE THE MAIN WEATHER MAKER FOR THE REGION. THE
MAIN CONCERN OF SIGNIFICANCE WILL BE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...WHEN SOME FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE EARLY SUN. HOWEVER...THE WIND MAY BE TOO
STRONG YET TO ALLOW FOR ANY WIDESPREAD FREEZE...WHICH HAS YET TO
OCCUR SO FAR THIS FALL. THIS WOULD BE THE LAST CHANCE FOR A FREEZE
FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH IS RAPIDLY
APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE MONDAY...WHICH
APPEARS SIMILAR TO THE SAT SYSTEM...ALBEIT LESS DYNAMIC AND OVERALL
FURTHER NORTH. THIS SHOULD BE FOLLOWED BY SEVERAL DAYS OF QUIET
WEATHER ONCE AGAIN WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR FREEZE/FROST COMING
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM EARLY THU.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 735 AM EDT THURSDAY...

IFR TO MVFR CLOUDS HAVE EXPANDED NORTH ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
WILL BE SPREADING INTO KBCB BEFORE 14Z/10AM. EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...BREAKS IN THE HIGH CLOUDS RESULTED IN PATCHY MVFR TO IFR
FOG FORMATION. EXPECT NO IMPACT FROM FOG AT KROA/KLYH AND KDAN.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WAS APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. MORE SHOWERS WILL POP UP BY MID TO LATE MORNING WITH
SOME DAYTIME HEATING...BUT AS FLOW BECOMES MORE W AND
NW...DOWNSLOPE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE SHOULD KEEP KDAN/KLYH OUT OF
THE SHRA. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ANYWHERE FROM KBCB
WEST INTO SE WEST VIRGINIA...MAINLY BETWEEN 15Z/11AM AND 21Z/5PM.

AFTER SUNSET...CLOUDS WILL CLEAR EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. MVFR
CEILINGS WILL HOLD IN MUCH OF THE NIGHT IN SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA...INCLUDING KBLF AND KLWB.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

BY FRIDAY...THE INITIAL PIECE OF THE 5H TROUGH WILL LIFT BACK
NORTH ALLOWING FOR A DRIER ZONAL FLOW TO BRIEFLY DEVELOP WHICH
WILL BRING WIDESPREAD VFR TO END THE WEEK. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT LACKING
MOISTURE BUT ENOUGH TO LIKELY WRING OUT SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCED MVFR
LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS SE WEST VIRGINIA WHERE A FEW SHRA WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME OF THIS CLOUD COVER MAY SPILL INTO
KBCB/KROA GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE NW FLOW WITH LESS CLOUDS TO
THE EAST PER DOWNSLOPE DRYING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH VFR EXPECTED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/DS
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...PC/RAB
AVIATION...AMS/JH




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO

 254 AM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

IR SATELLITE SHOWING PLENTY OF CLOUDS FOR MAINLY SOUTHERN AREAS OF
THE CWA THIS MORNING WITH SOME LIGHT RETURNS SHOWING UP ON RADAR.
THESE CLOUDS ARE IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK WAVE THAT IS CURRENTLY
MOVING ACROSS CO AND NEW MEXICO. BY DAYBREAK THE WAVE WILL SHIFT
TO ERN CO WHILE ANOTHER WEAK WAVE TAKES AIM FOR AREAS SOUTH. HRRR
AND RAP NOT SHOWING MUCH PRECIP UNTIL THIS AFTN WITH NAM12
FOLLOWING SUIT. KEPT VERY ISOLD POPS OVER HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF
SAN JUANS WITH COVERAGE INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY REACHING THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS FROM NOON ONWARDS. LAPSE RATES STEEPEN SOMEWHAT
THIS AFTERNOON WITH CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY ALSO INCREASING A BIT
SO INCLUDED ISOLD STORMS THOUGH THEY SHOULD BE FEW AND FAR
BETWEEN. THOSE AREAS AWAY FROM ANY CONVECTION WILL SEE SOME MID TO
HIGH CLOUDS AS TEMPS CONTINUE TO RUN WARM.

A PSEUDO-REX BLOCK WILL BE SETTING UP TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH
THE LOW OVER THE BAJA REGION TRAPPED UNDER AN AMPLIFYING NORTHERN
ROCKIES RIDGE. THIS RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE NORTH CENTRAL STATES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE LEFT
AND RIGHT COASTLINES OF NOAM. A SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT TO THE
SOUTHERN FLOW PATTERN OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST APPEARS TO TAP
INTO MOISTURE ORIGINATING IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. 305K
THETA SURFACES SHOW A DECENT WARM CONVEYOR BELT ASCENDING OUT OF
WEST TEXAS TOWARD THE 4 CORNERS OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE BULK
OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE UTILIZED TO OUR SOUTH WHERE THE MAIN
SOURCE OF ASCENT WILL BE PRESENT. FARTHER NORTH...OROGRAPHICS AND
MARGINAL CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY WILL BE KEEPING SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOCUSED OVER OUR SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS. A
STRAY SHOWER MAY SURVIVE INTO THE VALLEY BUT UPPER WINDS ARE NOT
ENTIRELY FAVORABLE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE STUCK IN A RUT AND
PERSISTENCE STILL SEEMS THE WAY TO GO.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

A STRONGER POLAR JET WILL BE DESCENDING THE HIGH LATITUDES TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST STATES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS FORCES THE REX
PATTERN EVER SO SLOWLY TO THE EAST AS STRONG BLOCKING PERSISTS IN
THE EAST. FORCING REMAIN MINIMAL AND SO LOW POPS STUCK TO THE
TERRAIN IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COLORADO MOUNTAINS HIGHLIGHT
THE FORECAST AS TEMPERATURE TRENDS REMAIN STATIC.

UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE LIFTING OUT OF OUR REGION TUESDAY AND
AS IT DOES SO...WEAKENING DIVERGENCE WILL LEND ITSELF TO SOME SPOTTY
PRECIP FOR MAINLY HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE CWA. QUICK ON THE
HEELS OF THIS WAVE IS A STRONG JET THAT WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE AND MORE PRECIP WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. MODELS NOT SHOWING MUCH OF A BREAK BETWEEN THESE TWO WAVES
SO EXPECT UNSETTLED WX FOR MOST OF TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AFTER
THAT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND PERSISTS THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD. DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE RESULT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 253 AM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH MID
LEVEL CLOUDS BEING REPORTED IN THE SAN JUANS AND AREAS SOUTH.
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE SAME AREA FROM 12Z ONWARDS
OVERSPREADING TO THE CENTRAL MTNS BY 18Z. SOME STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTN BUT EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE VERY ISOLATED IN
NATURE...FAVORING THE HIGHEST TERRAIN. LOW CONFIDENCE THAT ANY TAF
SITES WILL BE AFFECTED SO WILL LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION FOR NOW. SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS MAY PERSIST PAST 03Z BUT VERY LIMITED COVERAGE
EXPECTED.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TGR/15
LONG TERM...15/TGR
AVIATION...TGR




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PADUCAH KY

 1155 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1154 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 06Z TAF issuance.

UPDATE Issued at 847 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

Made some adjustments to the low temperature forecast to account
for the cloud mass that will continue to stream through the
Evansville Tri State through much of the night. Not sure where the
back/southwest edge of these clouds will be, but where the clouds
persist it will be a milder night with lows well into the 50s.
Figure there will be enough wind in the Tri State area to keep
temperatures from plummeting too quickly when clear patches pass
by. The latest RAP seemed to have a reasonable idea with the
clouds` impact on temperatures, so used it as a guide for this update.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 222 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

A dry cold front was crossing our region this afternoon, accompanied
by a gradual wind shift into the northwest. This front will be
followed by cooler temperatures over the weekend. The surface high
pressure center will cross the Lower Ohio Valley on Sunday. Nearly
calm winds and clear skies Sunday morning could allow for the
formation of a little frost. Forecast low temps for Saturday night
will be closer to the cooler mos guidance than the allblend.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 222 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

Main challenge is with Monday`s forecast. After that, high and dry
regardless of model choice. The GFS seems to be an outlier model
for Monday, from much deeper with the h5 trof moving across the
Great Lakes and Midwest, to its higher overall moisture forecast.
The NAM/SREF/GEM and ECMWF are much drier, and also not as intense
with the westward extension of the trof axis. A slight chance PoP
for isolated showers is no big deal to carry, and we are
essentially surrounded by at least 20s percent (with our
neighboring offices). The dynamics, despite marginal moisture are
respectable. Having said that, most areas may not see a thing
(rainfall wise) as the system and its associated frontal boundary
move through.

After that, high pressure will eventually take control, as a mid
level low moves across the east U.S. (favored model per WPC is an
ECMWF/ECMWF mean blend). Will probably see wrap around cu/strato-
cu Tuesday, especially east of the Mississippi. Rest of the week,
not much in the way of cloud cover as deeper layer drying takes
place. Lots of 60s for highs and 40s for lows.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1154 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

Low VFR ceilings will continue to brush southeast by KEVV and KOWB
overnight. A sharp upper-level trough will dive southeast through
the Great Lakes and into the Ohio Valley by the end of the period.
As a result, a large area of lower VFR clouds will descend on the
KEVV and KOWB areas Saturday. Guidance is indicating that a period
of MVFR ceilings will be a strong possibility around midday at
KOWB. Wouldn`t be surprised to see some MVFR conditions at KEVV,
too. Elsewhere...more scattered cu are expected. Northwest winds
will gust into the teens at times throughout the area Saturday.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
AVIATION...DRS






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 444 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 443 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH MUCH OF THE MOISTURE ON WV IMAGERY
BEGINNING TO DIVE SOUTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA. AT THE
SURFACE...A 988MB LOW CENTERED OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC IS STRETCHING A
COLD FRONT SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. BEHIND
THIS COLD FRONT...STRONG NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS ARE IN PLACE OVER
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WITH GUSTS TO 35KTS SEEN AT 2AM OVER
EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THESE GUSTY WINDS HAVE HELPED AID UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT OF THE RAINFALL OVER THE AREA IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NORTH CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN. 24HR RAINFALL AMOUNT AT OUR OFFICE WAS
1.43 INCHES THROUGH 2AM...WHILE LOCATIONS NEAR THE LAKE SHORE IN
MARQUETTE COUNTY HAVE ONLY SEEN AROUND 0.9 INCHES. DID SEE SOME
SNOW MIX IN AT OUR OFFICE (STARTED SHORTLY AFTER 2AM) AND ALSO ON
SOME OF THE WESTERN U.P. WEBCAMS...WHICH MATCHES UP WITH MODEL
WETBULB0 VALUES. BUT...WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT ALREADY SURGING INTO
THE AREA...SEEN IN THE QUICK DIMINISHMENT OF RADAR RETURNS OVER THE
LAST 1-1.5HRS...DO HAVE SOME CONCERN WITH HOW MUCH SNOW WILL
CONTINUE TO MIX IN. THIS IS DUE TO THE STRENGTHENING INVERSION
AROUND 850MB BOTH TRAPPING IN MOISTURE BELOW IT AND ALSO LIMITING
THE TOP OF THE CLOUD TO AROUND -5 TO -7C. THIS IS MARGINAL FOR ICE
CRYSTALS TO BE IN THE CLOUDS AND ALTHOUGH THE WETBULB0 VALUES WOULD
SUPPORT MAINLY SNOW...WILL GO WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE UNCERTAINTY OF ICE CRYSTALS. HAVE BEEN IMPRESSED AT HOW QUICKLY
THE SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED WITH THE DEPARTING DEEP MOISTURE AND
THAT LEADS TO LIMITED CONFIDENCE ON HOW LONG THE
SCATTERED/ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL LINGER TODAY. WITH THE DEEP
MOISTURE GONE...FORCING COMES FROM LAKE SUPERIOR AND UPSLOPE. WITH
THE LAKE INFLUENCE LIMITED DUE TO LAKE SUPERIOR TEMPS AROUND 7C
(CREATING MARGINAL DELTA-T VALUES FOR PURE LAKE EFFECT)...WILL
FOCUS THE BEST POPS WHERE THE ADDED UPSLOPE INFLUENCE IS OVER
THE NORTH CENTRAL U.P. WILL DIMINISH PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH
THE DAY AND HAVE THEM DONE BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...WILL
HOLD ON TO SOME CLOUD COVER INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH THAT MOISTURE
TRAPPED BELOW THE INVERSION...BUT EXPECT DIURNAL MIXING AND
INCREASING LOW LEVEL DRY AIR (FROM THE APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE) TO HELP SCATTER THE CLOUDS OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON AWAY FROM
THE PERSISTENT NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. THE
CLOUDS COMBINED WITH THE THERMAL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
WILL LEAD TO A COOL DAY TODAY AND HAVE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S AND
LOWER 40S.

WITH DECREASING CLOUDS AND THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVING DIRECTLY
OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...EXPECT A GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING PERIOD
THIS EVENING AND FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN. THAT WILL LEAD TO A COLD AND FROSTY NIGHT FOR THE U.P.
AND WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE LOW END OF GUIDANCE FOR LOWS
TONIGHT. ONE THING TO KEEP AN EYE ON IS THE CLOUDS FOR THE NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST CWA THIS EVENING AND INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT
HOURS. WITH THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUING TO PRODUCE SOME
LAKE INFLUENCE WITH THE MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW THE
INVERSION...COULD SEE THE CLOUDS IN THOSE AREAS HANGING ON FOR MUCH
OF THE NIGHT. THUS...DID KEEP TEMPS A LITTLE HIGHER IN SOME OF
THOSE LOCATIONS FOR TONIGHT. FINALLY...HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW MOVING
THROUGH ON SUNDAY NIGHT. THOSE HIGH CLOUDS AND RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPING BEHIND THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH MAY LEAD TO TEMPS
WARMING SLIGHTLY OVER THE WEST TOWARDS DAY BREAK.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 443 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

SURFACE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY WILL SHIFT INTO THE
EASTERN LAKES ON SUNDAY AS NEXT SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF
CANADA INTO THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH POSITION OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S.
NOT AS MUCH MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE THIS TIME AROUND AND ONLY EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO ACCOMPANY THE SURFACE/UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE LATE
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY.

BEYOND MONDAY...A MUCH NEEDED BREAK FROM THE WET WEATHER IS ON THE
WAY. UPPER RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL NUDGE JUST FAR
ENOUGH EAST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ALLOWING FOR A STRING OF DRY
AND MILD DAYS FOR THE TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 121 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

STRONG NORTHERLY UPSLOPE WINDS AND PCPN WILL RESULT IN LOWER END MVFR
THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT AT SAW. AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FLOW
INTO THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY CIGS SHOULD LIFT AOA 2K FT AT ALL
TERMINALS WITH PCPN DIMINISHING OR ENDING. IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR
FIRST AT KCMX AND LAST AT KSAW AS MOISTURE THINS OUT THERE LATEST.
ALTHOUGH LAKE MOISTURE WILL DELAY CLEARING...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE TO VFR AT IWD AND CMX BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND AT SAW
SAT EVENING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 443 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

A LOW SPINNING OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE A COLD
FRONT EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING.
AS THIS OCCURS...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES TODAY AND LEAD TO QUICKLY DIMINISHING WINDS ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR. WILL CONTINUE THE GALE WARNINGS OVER THE EASTERN LAKE
WITH STILL A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS OCCURRING...BUT IT SHOULD
DIMINISH BELOW GALES AFTER SUNRISE. EXPECT WINDS TO STAY BELOW 25KTS
FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LSZ249>251-266-267.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR LSZ248-265.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LMZ221-248-250.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...SRF






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 126 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

...A COOL WET AND WINDY EVENING WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT LATER
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...

WV LOOP AND IR SATELLITE AND NWS REGIONAL RADAR AND CANADIAN RADAR
LOOPS SHOWING AN EXPANDED AREA OF RAIN SWEEPING NORTH TO SOUTH OVER
UPPER GREAT LAKES. BASED ON SFC OBS...APPEARS BACK EDGE OF RAIN IS
OVR CENTRAL LK SUPERIOR ENE INTO ADJACENT AREAS OF ONTARIO. PRIMARY
SFC LOW IS NOW JUST SOUTH OF JAMES BAY AT AROUND 990MB. NORTH WINDS
OVER THE REGION ARE GUSTING OVER 30 MPH OVER MUCH OF LK SUPERIOR AND
OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN UPR MICHIGAN...WITH 20-30 MPH GUSTS FARTHER
INLAND AND TOWARD LK MICHIGAN. BASED ON UPSTREAM TRENDS...SHORT
TERM MODEL FORECASTS FM NAM/GEM-REGIONAL SEEM IN GOOD SHAPE..AND
HAVE LEANED ON THOSE ALONG WITH THE HRRR FOR DETAILS IN THE NEXT
12-15 HRS. EXPECT A PERIOD OF RAIN AND STRONG WINDS THROUGH AT LEAST
THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE PRECIP DIMINISHES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS
MOISTURE ABOVE H9 DIMINISHES SHARPLY. EVEN WITH THE DECREASE IN
MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE...ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
INTO MUCH OF SATURDAY ALONG WITH A NNW LOW-LEVEL FLOW BTWN DEPARTING
LOW AND APPROACHING SFC HIGH. LAKE ENHANCED PRECIP THIS EVENING
/DELTA T/S AROUND 8C GIVEN SUFFICIENT LARGE SCALE MOISTURE AND LIFT/
SHOULD TRANSITION TO PURE LAKE EFFECT SINCE THERE IS JUST ENOUGH
OVER-WATER INSTABILITY PRESENT AS TEMPS AT INVERSION TOP 900-875MB
FALL TO -5C AFTER 09Z WHILE WATER TEMPS ON AVERAGE ARE AROUND +8C
/PROVIDING DELTA T/S OF 13C/.

BASED ON SOUNDINGS...ANY SNOW POTENTIAL IS BASED ON EXTENT OF
WARMING IN LOWEST PARTS OF THE BLYR. THUS CONTINUED TO USE WBZERO
HEIGHTS TO DETERMINE THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW. APPEARS THAT HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS OF WEST AND CNTRL CWA SEE THE BEST CHANCES FOR SOME
SNOW...BUT WITHOUT DEEPER MOISTURE/LIFTING OCCURRING...SEEMS THAT
TEMPS IN MOIST LAYER MAY NOT BE AS LOW AS -8C OR -10C...SUGGESTING
THERE MAY NOT BE ICE CRYSTALS INTRODUCED FM ALOFT TO LEAD TO BETTER
CHANCES OF SNOW. A WEAK WAVE ALOFT CURRENTLY DROPPING SE OVER CNTRL
MANITOBA MAY PUSH ACROSS WEST CWA LATER TONIGHT RESULTING IN A BIT OF
ADDITIONAL H7-H5 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND LIFT TO HELP OUT THE CAUSE.
EVEN IMPACT FM THAT APPEARS MINIMAL ATTM. OVERALL...CHANCES OF
MEASURABLE SNOW APPEAR MINIMAL WITH THIS SYSTEM.

SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH INVERSION AT
H85-H8 ON SATURDAY. KEPT IN SMALL POPS FOR LAKE EFFECT AS SETUP IS
NOT ALL THAT DIFFERENT FM LATE TONIGHT. GRADUALLY...AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA...EXPECT BLYR TO DRY OUT BLO CLOUD BASE
ENOUGH TO RESULT IN ANY LGT PRECIP COMING TO AN END. TEMPS WILL BE
CHILLY AS LOW-LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH IS OVERHEAD. EXPECT MAX TEMPS
MAINLY IN THE 30S...EXCEPT SOME LOW 40S OVER SCNTRL CWA. ADDED TO
THE CHILL WILL BE CONTINUING GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS...
STRONGEST NEAR LK SUPERIOR OVER THE EAST CWA IN THE MORNING.

LIKELY THE BIGGEST POTENTIAL IMPACT FM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WINDS AND
WAVE ACTION ALONG LK SUPERIOR. GIVEN THE HIGH WATER LEVELS ON LAKE
SUPERIOR WHICH ARE THE HIGHEST SINCE THE MID 1990S AND WAVES
BUILDING TO 8-12 FEET INTO THIS EVENING AND THROUGH TONIGHT (HIGHEST
E OF THE KEWEENAW)...MINOR BEACH EROSION AND LOCALIZED FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ON THE BEACHES FROM AROUND MARQUETTE TO GRAND
MARAIS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MENTIONED IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK AND THE GRAPHICAL EHWO.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

NAM SHOWS A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. 00Z SUN. THERE IS A
SHORTWAVE OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES 00Z SUN THAT AFFECTS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES LATE ON SUN. A 500 MB RIDGE THEN BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS
ON MON. NAM SHOWS SOME DEEPER MOISTURE AND 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE MOVING INTO THE AREA LATE SUN AND THEN MOVING OUT ON
MON. NAM SHOWS SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE ON I290K-I305K
SURFACES MOVING INTO THE AREA SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE
MOVING OUT ON MON. WILL KEEP SOME LOW CHANCE POPS SUN MORNING
GRADUALLY SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA SUN AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AND
THEN DRYING OUT LATE MONDAY. DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE
TEMPERATURES OR THE WEATHER AS THE FORECAST HAD THINGS WELL IN HAND.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB TROUGH ON THE WEST
COAST 12Z TUE WITH A RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS AND A TROUGH IN THE ERN
U.S. THE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z WED INTO 12Z
THU WITH RIDGING STAYING IN PLACE INTO FRI. THIS FORECAST PERIOD
WILL BE DRY WITH A WARMING TREND WITH TEMPERATURES GOING ABOVE
NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 121 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

STRONG NORTHERLY UPSLOPE WINDS AND PCPN WILL RESULT IN LOWER END MVFR
THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT AT SAW. AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FLOW
INTO THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY CIGS SHOULD LIFT AOA 2K FT AT ALL
TERMINALS WITH PCPN DIMINISHING OR ENDING. IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR
FIRST AT KCMX AND LAST AT KSAW AS MOISTURE THINS OUT THERE LATEST.
ALTHOUGH LAKE MOISTURE WILL DELAY CLEARING...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE TO VFR AT IWD AND CMX BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND AT SAW
SAT EVENING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

GALES 35-40 KTS REMAIN ON TRACK OVER LK SUPERIOR THROUGH TONIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS SOUTHEAST OF JAMES BAY. WINDS JUST STARTING TO
INCREASE ON BAY OF GREEN BAY AND LK MICHIGAN AND EXPECT FREQUENT
GALE GUSTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT THERE. AS A HIGH PRES RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY AFTN...STRONG WINDS WILL DIMINISH
WEST TO EAST. ALTHOUGH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE/SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRACK ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK...NO STRONG WINDS ARE
EXPECTED.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LSZ266-267.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR LSZ244-245-
     248>251-264-265.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LMZ221-248-250.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLA







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DULUTH MN

 306 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM MANITOBA INTO THE DAKOTAS WILL MOVE
EAST TODAY OVER THE NORTHLAND...THEN CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION TONIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND A SHORTWAVE WILL THEN
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

LATEST RADAR SHOWS ECHO COVERAGE DIMINISHING OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS...AND THIS IS IN LINE WITH LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. THE
GRAVITY WAVE INDUCED AREA OF PRECIP OVER THE NORTH SHORE INTO THE
HEAD OF LAKE SUPERIOR HAS ENDED...AS FORECAST BY THE RAP DUE TO DECREASING
MOISTURE AND WIND SPEED. A FAVORABLE SET FOR LAKE EFFECT PRECIP
EXISTS ACROSS NORTHERN ASHLAND/IRON COUNTIES AS FAR AS FETCH AND
DELTA-T VALUES ARE CONCERNED THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...DEEPER MOISTURE
WILL BE QUITE LIMITED AND INVERSION LEVELS WILL BE LOWERING
THROUGH THE MORNING. WE WILL CARRY SOME POPS FOR A TIME THIS
MORNING...BUT THINK THE LACK OF MOISTURE WILL SHUT DOWN ANY LAKE
EFFECT LATER THIS MORNING. THERE WERE STILL PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND AND UPSTREAM OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO THIS MORNING. THE
RAP DOES SHOW THESE CLOUDS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THROUGH THE
DAY...AND WE EXPECT CLEARING FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH THE DAY. MORE
SUN IS EXPECTED EARLIER FROM THE NORTH SHORE CLOSE TO THE LAKE
DOWN TOWARD THE TWIN PORTS DUE TO SUBSIDENCE DOWN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING...THEN CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
AS A SHORTWAVE AND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE IN. THE AIRMASS IS
INITIALLY QUITE DRY...SO WE DELAYED ANY POPS UNTIL LATE TONIGHT
OVER NORTHERN AREAS. WE HAVE A CHANCE OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF
THE REGION SUNDAY...WITH LOW POPS SOUTH AND HIGHER POPS FAR NORTH.
RAINFALL WILL BE QUITE LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH MOST AREAS ONLY
RECEIVING A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM NW ONTARIO TO THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. ITS COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE NORTHLAND. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
OVER THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT FROM THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS ON MONDAY TO THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES BY TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING WARMER WEATHER TO THE REGION FOR
THE MIDDLE AND LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY...THEY WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT 5
TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

A PASSING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE COULD BRING SHOWERS TO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE GFS AND GEM ARE MUCH DRIER THAN THE
ECMWF...SO THE LOW PCPN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST ARE PRIMARILY A
REFLECTION OF THE WETTER ECWMF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

MVFR CIGS WILL BE COMMON ACROSS ALL TAF SITES OVERNIGHT.  CIGS WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR BEGINNING AROUND 12Z AT INL...MID-MORNING ACROSS
HIB/BRD/DLH..AND LATE MORNING AT HYR AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE FORECAST AREA.  CONDITIONS WILL STAY VFR THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  47  34  56  42 /   0  10  30  10
INL  46  37  58  40 /   0  20  30   0
BRD  50  40  62  42 /   0  10  10   0
HYR  48  31  56  41 /   0  10  20   0
ASX  47  31  55  42 /  10  10  30  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR LSZ121-
     146>148.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     LSZ140.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...STEWART/GROCHOCINSKI






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ST LOUIS MO

 339 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Tonight)
Issued at 334 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2014

Early morning water vapor imagery and RAP PV analyses both
depicted a strong shortwave located over northern MN and
southwestern ONT. This feature is forecast to dive southward and
southeastward today, moving through parts of central IL before
reaching KY and TN by 00z. This system appears to be
moisture-starved and no pcpn is expected with its passage near the
LSX CWA. Meanwhile, a cool Canadian high pressure center will
build in at the surface today and tonight. The ridge axis should
be nearly overhead by 12z, resulting in good radiational cooling
conditions and rather cool overnight/early morning lows for Sunday
morning. Patchy frost in sheltered areas is not out of the
question.

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM:  (Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 334 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2014

Winds become southerly to southwesterly on Sunday once the
aforementioned high pressure center shifts southeastward. Another
shortwave moving through the Great Lakes will lead to increased
precipitation chances from late Sunday night through Monday
afternoon. Models are showing at least some moisture being drawn
into the area ahead of the shortwave, therefore slight chance to
chance PoPs look appropriate at this time.

A pattern resembling an omega block is forecast over the CONUS for
most of next week. Dry easterly or southeasterly surface flow is
expected through the middle of the week across the LSX CWA.
ECMWF/GFS/GEM all agree that the highly amplified upper ridge axis
will shift eastward with time, but initially small differences in
the handling of a weak vort max crossing the Rockies ultimately
lead to large differences between models regarding the large scale
upper air pattern over the central CONUS by next Thursday.

Kanofsky

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1125 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2014

VFR conditions are expected to continue with periods of VFR cloud
cover tonight and tomorrow along and east of the Mississippi
River. Northwest wind below 10kt to continue.

Specifics for KSTL:
VFR conditions expected to continue with a northwest wind.

CVKING

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND FORKS ND

 304 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE CLOUD TRENDS TODAY AND TEMPS OVERALL.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT...WITH THEN NAM HAVING A
BETTER HANDLE ON THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS OVER THE REGION NOW.

FOR TODAY...A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL BE OVER THE AREA
TODAY...AND THIS SHOULD TRAP CLOUDS AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST.
EXPECTING A CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY MORNING FOR ALL AREAS. THERE
SHOULD BE SOME THINNING OF CLOUDS ON THE WEST AND EASTERN EDGES OF
THE FA AFTER 18Z...BUT CLOUDS COULD REMAIN MOST OF THE AFTERNOON
IN THE VALLEY. HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST IN THE DIRECTION OF MORE
CLOUDS...AND TWEAKED HIGHS DOWN A FEW DEGREES. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL SLOWLY INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD ALSO CAUSE
CLOUDS TO THIN BY 21Z.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP AND A MILD NIGHT IS
EXPECTED WITH MINIMAL TEMP FALL FOR MOST AREAS WITH WINDS
REMAINING AROUND 10KT...PERHAPS A BIT HIGHER.

ON SUNDAY...A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
REGION. THERE IS NO DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE TO SPEAK OF...SO
EXPECTING A DRY SYSTEM. THERE WILL BE COOLING IN THE MID
LEVELS...BUT WITH FAVORABLE WESTERLY WIND FLOW SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...TEMPS SHOULD STILL RISE ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

ON MONDAY...THE GFS IS COOLER THAN THE NAM AND WOULD YIELD HIGHS
IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60...WITH THE NAM A BIT WARMER. TEMPS SHOULD
BE COOLER THAN SUNDAY THOUGH WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND LIMITED MIXING
OVER THE AREA.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING IN A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MID WEEK...ALTHOUGH THERE CONTINUE TO BE DIFFERENCES IN
THE TIMING. THE ECMWF IS FASTER AND PRODUCES MORE PRECIP THAN THE
GFS AND GEM ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE OTHER OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE
SLOWER AND DRIER. SEVERAL OF THE NAEFS MEMBERS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH
THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF...SO THERE IS ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY TO INCLUDE
SOME POPS FOR WEDNESDAY DURING THE DAY. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE
PRECIP THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND IN THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES
THURSDAY BEFORE DRYING OUT ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER
THAN AVERAGE WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 60S UNDER RIDGING TO SOUTHWEST
AND WEST FLOW ALOFT. THERE ARE SOME SIGNS OF A SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA WHICH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH
SOMETIME LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN
FAIRLY MILD AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
TOMORROW. HAVE FOLLOWED THE NAM BUFR/MOS FOR MOST OF THE
FORECAST. CEILINGS HAVE BOUNCED AROUND 1100-1900 FT IN MOST
AREAS...WITH SOME TERMINALS SEEING CIGS BETWEEN 2000 AND 3500 FEET.
IF ANY OF THE SITES GO BELOW 1000 FT IT WOULD BE KDVL AS THE
LANGDON AWOS HAS DIPPED TO BKN AT 800 FT RECENTLY. CIGS AT MOST
TERMINALS SHOULD ERODE BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS INDICATED BY THE NAM.
THE RAP DOES LINGER CLOUDS A BIT LATER HOWEVER.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK/JR
AVIATION...KNUTSVIG







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

 254 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

MAIN CONCERNS TODAY WILL BE THE TIMING OF ERODING LOW CLOUDS
ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND THE PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT/COLD
FRONT IN THE NEXT 24HR. THE LATEST FOG/STRATUS LOOP IN CONJUNCTION
WITH HRRR CEILING FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT EARLY
THIS MORNING AND HAVE UTILIZED THIS FOR THE SKY GRIDS. ESSENTIALLY
EXPECT THE BACK EDGE OF THE LOW CLOUDS...WHICH CURRENTLY STRETCH
ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM CROSBY TO WILLISTON/WATFORD
CITY/DICKINSON/ELGIN...TO BEGIN ERODING FROM WEST TO EAST AT
15Z...THEN WORKING INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BETWEEN 18Z-20Z.
INCREASING 3HR PRESSURE FALLS DUE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION/RISING
MOTION NOW ENTERING THE WEST WILL HELP FACILITATE THE EROSION OF
THE LOW CLOUDS DURING THE MORNING AND SHIFT THE CLEARING LINE EAST
BY EARLY AFTERNOON. ONCE THIS OCCURS EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
WITH SCT MID/HIGH CLOUDS LATER TODAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONTAL
PASSAGE ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED
BY A COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT. COOLING WILL BE MINIMAL BEHIND
THIS FRONT. H85 TEMPS RISE TO +9/10C SATURDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER
MIXING HEIGHTS WILL REACH ONLY TO AROUND 890MB..SO WILL NOT SEE
THE FULL MIXING/WARMTH POTENTIAL AS THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ABOVE
THIS LEVEL REMAINS STRONG. BOTH FRONTAL PASSAGES WILL BE DRY.
EXPECT HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL TO
LOWER 60S WEST. LOWS OF AROUND 40F CAN BE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE A CONTINUED WARM
AND DRY PERIOD AS A LONG WAVE RIDGE TRAVERSES EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE STATE FROM NW TO SE ON
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...BUT OTHER THAN CLOUDS...DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS BEST MOISTURE REMAINS EAST AND NORTH OF ND.

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MID-WEEK DEPICTING LONG WAVE
RIDGE SLOWLY PUSHING EAST ACROSS NORTH AMERICA...RESULTING IN MUCH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER.

THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK SEES THE RIDGE AXIS PASS TO OUR
EAST...THOUGH DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT ANOMALOUSLY HIGH HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT HIGH
TEMPS WELL INTO THE 60S THROUGH THE WEEK.

GFS/ECMWF SHOW SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING BEHIND THE UPPER RIDGE. MAIN ENERGY SPLITS TO THE
NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA RESULTING IN SOME VERY LOW POPS
OVER THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. OTHERWISE
DRY WEATHER DOMINATES THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

CIGS WILL CONTINUE IN THE MVFR TO IFR RANGE AT KMOT/KBIS/KJMS WITH
KISN AND KDIK REMAINING ON THE EDGE OF VFR/MVFR CIGS. A WARM
FRONT WILL MOVE FROM EASTERN MONTANA AND SLIDE ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY HELPING TO LIFT CIGS
BACK TO VFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 15Z-16Z AT KISN/KDIK...BETWEEN
17Z-18Z AT KMOT/KBIS...AND BETWEEN 18Z-20Z AT KJMS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...KS








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

 1147 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

LATEST FOG/STRATUS LOOP AND TIME/HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS SHOW LOW
CLOUDS EXPANDING A BIT FARTHER WEST WITH TIME...WITH THE BACK EDGE
NEAR/ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER. STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION FORECAST
TO LOWER OVERNIGHT PER NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND TIME/HEIGHT CROSS
SECTIONS. THUS CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER TO LESS THAN
1KFT...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. CURRENT
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW PATCHY FOG AT TIOGA AND STANLEY...BUT
EXPECT THIS TO BE SHORT LIVED AS PRESSURE FALLS/WARM AIR ADVECTION
OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA WILL SLIDE INTO NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT
IN ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE LATEST CIG FORECAST FROM
THE HRRR CONTINUES TO DOMINATE AS THE BEST MODEL AND HAVE UTILIZED
THIS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD THESE TRENDS
HANDLED WELL WITH JUST MINOR UPDATES NEEDED THIS EVENING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 920 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

SHARP EDGE TO LOW CLOUD COVER HAS PUSHED JUST TO THE WEST OF A
LINE FROM MINOT TO BISMARCK AND CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WORK TOWARDS
THE WEST. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE A BIT LONGER BEFORE IT
STALLS OUT. TEMPERATURES MAINLY REMAIN IN THE 40S UNDER THE CLOUD
COVER...WHILE TO THE WEST UNDER CLEAR SKIES TEMPERATURES HAVE
DROPPED INTO THE UPPER 20S IN A FEW LOCATIONS. MID-EVENING UPDATE
WILL ADDRESS CLOUD COVER TREND AND WILL ALSO LOWER MIN TEMPS TO
THE WEST OF THE LOW CLOUD COVER.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 618 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

ONLY CHANGE FOR EARLY EVENING UPDATE WAS TO MAKE SOME UPDATES TO CLOUD
COVER BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. BACK EDGE OF LOW CLOUDS STRETCHES FROM
NEAR MINOT TO BISMARCK. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGEST THIS BACKING TO
THE WEST LATER THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD
SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

MAIN ISSUE IS CLOUD COVER. RECENT VIS IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW
CLOUDS ERODING ACROSS WESTERN ND WITH OVERCAST CONDITIONS
PREVAILING OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN REGIONS. WV IMAGERY SHOWS WEAK
SHORTWAVE IN NORTHWEST FLOW JUST PUSHING SOUTH OF ND WITH SOME
SUBSIDENCE/DRYING BEHIND IT. WILL CONTINUE THE TREND FROM EARLIER AND
MAINTAIN CLOUD COVER OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS...CLOSER TO
NAM/HRRR GUIDANCE WHICH HAD BEEN PERFORMING BETTER. NAM BUFR
SOUNDING FOR BISMARCK KEEPS SHALLOW SATURATED LAYER AROUND 900MB
THROUGH THE NIGHT. ANY REMAINING CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE SATURDAY
MORNING/AFTERNOON WITH RETURN FLOW BEHIND SURFACE RIDGE HELPING
WARM TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEGREES COMPARED TO TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE STATE FROM NW TO SE ON
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...BUT OTHER THAN CLOUDS...DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS BEST MOISTURE REMAINS EAST AND NORTH OF ND. MODELS
REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MID-WEEK DEPICTING LONG WAVE
RIDGE SLOWLY PUSHING EAST ACROSS NORTH AMERICA...RESULTING IN MUCH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER. NAEFS SUPPORTS THIS
SCENARIO AS WELL SHOWING UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS IN 99TH PERCENTILE
ALONG RIDGE AXIS. THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK SEES THE RIDGE AXIS
PASS TO OUR EAST...THOUGH DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ANOMALOUSLY HIGH HEIGHTS ACROSS THE
REGION. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 60S THROUGH THE WEEK.
GFS/ECMWF SHOW SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY EVENING
BEHIND UPPER RIDGE...RESULTING IN SOME VERY LOW POPS. OTHERWISE
DRY WEATHER DOMINATES THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

CIGS WILL CONTINUE IN THE MVFR TO IFR RANGE THROUGH MID MORNING
SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL THEN EMERGE ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA AND
SLIDE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY
RAISING CIGS TO VFR BETWEEN 15Z-16Z AT KISN/KDIK...AND BETWEEN
17Z-18Z FOR KMOT/KBIS/KJMS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...JNS
LONG TERM...JNS
AVIATION...KS






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND FORKS ND

 1133 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1003 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

VERY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO SKY GRIDS WITH THIS UPDATE.
OVERALL...FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 648 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

FRESHENED UP CLOUD COVER THROUGH TOMORROW BASED ON LATEST MODEL
DATA. NEW NAM MODEL BUFR SOUNDINGS AND MOS GUIDANCE HAVE CLOUDS
LINGERING THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING IN MOST AREAS. HAVE EXTENDED
OVERCAST SKIES A LITTLE TEMPORALLY...CLEARING THINGS OUT DURING
THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES THIS AFTERNOON INCLUDE SHORT TERM
CLOUD TRENDS AND TEMPS.

SFC RIDGING WILL DROP SOUTH FROM CANADA OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...WITH WINDS EVENTUALLY BECOMING LIGHT. LOW CLOUDS
CURRENTLY EXTEND WELL NORTHWARD INTO MANITOBA...WITH SOME EROSION
ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. THE NAM/RAP HAVE BEEN SHOWING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING
TRAPPED UNDER DRYING/SUBSIDING MID LEVELS TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...WHEREAS THE GFS HAS SHOWN DEEPER DIURNAL MIXING AND
QUICKER EROSION OF THE MOIST LAYER BY THIS EVENING. TENDED TO SIDE
WITH THE NAM/RAP...IN KEEPING MORE CLOUD COVER TONIGHT. DID BEGIN TO
DECREASE CLOUDS ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH NOT CONFIDENT ON TIMING. IT
IS POSSIBLE THAT CLOUDS COULD HANG ON INTO TOMORROW. HAVE GONE
WITH MIDDLE OF THE ROAD LOW TEMPS TONIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID
30S...BUT SOME AREAS COULD REMAIN WARMER/COLDER DEPENDING ON IF
AND WHERE ANY CLEARING OCCURS. RETURN FLOW WILL COMMENCE ON
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY RRV WESTWARD...WITH WARMING 850 MB TEMPS.
STILL EXPECT TEMPS GENERALLY NEAR OR BELOW AVERAGE...DEPENDENT TO
SOME EXTENT ON CLOUD COVER.

THE NEXT UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DROP
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES SATURDAY NIGHT. SOUTHERLY
WINDS/LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION COMBINED WITH INCREASING MID/HIGH
CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO MUCH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

AS THE UPPER WAVE DROPS THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY...AM NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP...WITH LOW LEVELS REMAINING
FAIRLY DRY AND THE SFC LOW PASSING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. THERE
COULD BE A SHOWER OR TWO UP TOWARDS LAKE OF THE WOODS...THOUGH.
ALTHOUGH THE THERMAL RIDGE AXIS PUSHES THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AS THE
UPPER WAVE TRANSLATES SOUTHEASTWARD...NO STRONG COLD ADVECTION IS
EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE DURING THE DAY. WITH A WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE
WIND AND MILD MORNING TEMPS...TEMPS SHOULD RESPOND NICELY INTO
THE 50S AND 60S...POSSIBLY NEAR 70 IN SE ND.

BEHIND THIS SYSTEM INTO MONDAY...MID/UPPER RIDGING WILL START TO
BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH QUIET WEATHER
CONTINUING. WINDS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE MONDAY UNDER WEAK
SFC HIGH PRESSURE...WITH TEMPS PERHAPS JUST A BIT COOLER THAN SUNDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF AK SHIFTS
SLIGHTLY EAST TO THE BC COAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. LONG WAVE
RIDGE OVER CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA ALSO SHIFTS EAST AND FLATTENS BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD AS SHORT WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW. ECMWF
IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THE A THE GFS AND REMAINS SO THROUGH THE
PERIOD. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE TRENDING FASTER OVER THE LAST
COUPLE MODEL RUNS. WILL PREFER THE ECMWF.

SHORT WAVE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/SOUTHERN
CANADA ON WED NIGHT. WITH FASTER TIMING, PRECIP WAS SHIFTED EAST ON
WED NIGHT AND THU.

WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER HE AREA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY INCREASED ONE TO THREE DEGREES
ON THU AND FRI AND DECREASED A DEGREE OR TWO FOR TUE AND WED FROM
YESTERDAYS RUN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
TOMORROW. HAVE FOLLOWED THE NAM BUFR/MOS FOR MOST OF THE
FORECAST. CEILINGS HAVE BOUNCED AROUND 1100-1900 FT IN MOST
AREAS...WITH SOME TERMINALS SEEING CIGS BETWEEN 2000 AND 3500 FEET.
IF ANY OF THE SITES GO BELOW 1000 FT IT WOULD BE KDVL AS THE
LANGDON AWOS HAS DIPPED TO BKN AT 800 FT RECENTLY. CIGS AT MOST
TERMINALS SHOULD ERODE BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS INDICATED BY THE NAM.
THE RAP DOES LINGER CLOUDS A BIT LATER HOWEVER.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KNUTSVIG
SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...HOPPES/JAM
AVIATION...KNUTSVIG






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON OH

 200 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT SHIFTING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT OVER
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OHIO. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL ALLOW COOL TEMPERATURES TO SPILL SOUTH AND COVER THE AREA
SATURDAY. A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL WEATHER SYSTEM WILL DIG SOUTHEAST
ACROSS OHIO AND KENTUCKY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BRINGING
A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS. IN ADDITION...THE COOL AIR FLOWING
OVER LAKE MICHIGAN MAY ALLOW A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
NORTHERN INDIANA AND AFFECT THE TRI STATE ON SATURDAY MORNING IN
ADVANCE OF THE STRONGER WAVE IN THE AFTERNOON. A DRY SUNDAY IS
EXPECTED WITH COOL TEMPERATURES LINGERING. LOOKING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...WITH A CHANCE OF
RAIN MOVING BACK INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES
INTO THE GREAT LAKES FROM CANADA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LIGHT ECHOES HEADING TOWARD THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA HAVE
DISSIPATED THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION HAS
DEVELOPED IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN AND NORTHEAST INDIANA. THE LATEST
HRRR/RAP RUNS SUGGEST THAT SOME OF THIS MAY ENCROACH THE NORTHERN
/ NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE ILN CWA...MAINLY BETWEEN 06Z-10Z.
SO...SOME LOW-END POPS HAVE BEEN LEFT IN THE FORECAST FOR THAT
TIME PERIOD.

AS THE COLD FRONT PASSED THROUGH THE AREA AND WINDS SHIFTED TO THE
WEST...THE STRENGTH OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW HAS INCREASED. THE
STRONGEST GUSTS OF THE DAY HAVE OCCURRED IN JUST THE PAST FEW
HOURS...INCLUDING 34 KNOTS AT KILN AND 33 KNOTS AT KDAY. BASED ON
UPSTREAM CONDITIONS...THE WINDS ARE UNLIKELY TO REMAIN THIS
STRONG FOR MORE THAN ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS. HOWEVER...WINDS HAVE
BEEN INCREASED SLIGHTLY FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS REMAINING AT 10-15 KNOTS AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 20
KNOTS EXPECTED EVEN THROUGH MORNING.

WITH THE FRONT LEADING TO A LITTLE BIT OF A TIGHTER TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...MIN TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED
SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION >
17.18Z RAP ANALYSIS AND OBSERVATIONAL DATA /GOES WATER VAPOR DATA/
INDICATE A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING LAKE MICHIGAN AND
EASTERN WISCONSIN. AT THE SURFACE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...IS A
STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS WRN LOWER MICHIGAN...INDIANA...INTO
SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS. LOW CLOUDS ARE STREAKING QUICKLY ACROSS NRN
INDIANA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT IN DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CAA.
GUSTY WAA/MIXING IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO
RISE TO NEAR 70F AREA-WIDE...WITH DWPTS MIXING STEADILY INTO THE
UPPER 40S AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON. IN THE PAST FEW HOURS...SOME
HIGH BASED CUMULUS HAVE DEVELOPED IN A FORCED ASCENT REGION
IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM OF THE SHORTWAVE OVER NERN IND/NWRN
OH...WITH SPRINKLES/-SHRA NOW DEVELOPING.

EXPECT SOME HIGHER-BASED SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP IN ACCORDANCE WITH RECENT HRRR...17.12Z HIRES
ARW/NMM/NAM/GEM. THESE SHOULD DEVELOP/STREAK DOWNSTREAM ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-70 THROUGH THIS EVENING SO INTRODUCED VERY SMALL
CHANCES OF A MEASURABLE SHOWER ESP FOR AREAS FROM CELINA TO KENTON
OVER TO DELAWARE. COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY CROSS THE CWA THIS
EVENING AND STRONG CAA TO ENSUE WITH BRISK/GUSTY NW WINDS. BRING
CLOUD COVER UP QUICKLY IN THE NWLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...WITH CONTINUED MENTION OF A SPRINKLE/-SHRA INTO THE
OVERNIGHT IN OUR FAR NORTH WHICH IS JUXTAPOSED WITH THE DEEPEST
/RELATIVELY SPEAKING/ MOISTURE AND MODEST FORCED ASCENT FROM THE
SHORTWAVE CROSSING MICH/LAKE HURON. LATER IN THE NIGHT /AFTER 3 AM
OR SO/...THE STRONG COLD ADVECTION SHOULD BEGIN WORKING THE WARM
SRN LAKE MICHIGAN LAKE WATERS AND ALL CONVECTION-ALLOWING GUIDANCE
INDICATES STREAMERS OF -SHRA DEVELOPING OFF LAKE MICHIGAN PUSHING
INTO ECNTL IND TOWARD THE CWA VERY LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ON 19.12Z...THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE MENTIONED ABOVE WILL BE PUSHING
INTO UPSTATE NY...WHILE A SECOND STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS
QUICKLY SOUTHEAST INTO WIS/ILL. THINK THERE IS A LULL IN THE
SYNOPTIC FORCING FROM 12Z-18Z...SO RAIN CHANCES IN THE MORNING
QUITE SMALL. LOW LEVEL STRATUS/STRATOCUMULUS WILL BE RATHER
WIDESPREAD...BUT THERE MAY BE SOME HOLES HERE AND THERE AMIDST THE
STRONG CAA. LAKE MICHIGAN-INDUCED BANDS OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TO POSE A THREAT INTO THE TRI-STATE AREA ON A LIMITED/NARROW
BASIS...AS MOST 17.12Z CAM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST SHRA
BANDS WILL BE MAINTAINED OFF LAKE MICHIGAN INTO SERN IND/SWRN
OH/NRN KY.

THE SECOND POTENT S/W BRINGS A BRIEF BUT DEEP MOISTURE FIELD AND
COMPACT VERTICAL MOTION SIGNAL. SEEMS QPF IN THE DETERMINISTIC
RUNS MAY BE UNDERDONE GIVEN A PURELY MOISTURE/LIFT PERSPECTIVE
FROM 17.12Z NAM/GFS...BUT THERE IS ACKNOWLEDGMENT THAT ANTECEDENT
MOISTURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES IS HARDLY IMPRESSIVE. THUS...EXPECT
BAND/S/ OF SHOWERS TO SPREAD NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVE. INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES A BIT BUT THINK THEY COULD GO EVEN A LITTLE HIGHER IF
FORCING/MOISTURE SIGNAL STILL LOOKS DECENT. A CHILLY...GREY DAY
FOR THE MOST PART...WITH HIGHS ONLY MOVING UP A FEW DEGREES OFF
THE MORNING LOWS...MOSTLY LOW-MID 50S GIVEN 850MB TEMPS PLUNGING
TO 0C BY MIDDAY OVER OHIO/INDIANA. A BRISK WIND WILL ADD TO THE CHILL.

THIS FORCING QUICKLY SLIDES EAST SATURDAY NIGHT WITH CLEARING
SKIES. THIS IS IMPORTANT AND STILL A LOW CONFIDENCE POINT...IF
SUBSIDENCE IS EFFICIENT AT ERODING LOW CLOUDS...MAY BE DEALING
WITH A WIDESPREAD FROST /AND POTENTIAL FREEZE/ IN OUR NORTH/WEST
COUNTIES LATER SAT NIGHT. A FEW HOURS EITHER WAY MAKE/BREAK THIS
FORECAST...AND THIS PUTS CNTL OH/SCIOTO VALLEY IN A REAL QUESTION
MARK AS THERE WON/T BE MUCH OF A WINDOW FOR FROST FORMATION IF LOW
CLOUDS ARE SLOW IN ERODING. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT OWING TO
DECOUPLING BOUNDARY LAYER. 17.12Z NAM HAS MORE WIND AND A HIGHER
POTENTIAL OF LOW CLOUDS HANGING IN THEN 17.12Z GFS...WHICH LOOKS
VERY FROSTY IN OUR NORTH/WEST. AT A MINIMUM THINK WE/LL PROBABLY
NEED FROST ADVISORIES FOR WCNTL OH/SERN IND/PORTIONS OF SWRN OH
SAT NIGHT...WITH POTENTIAL FREEZE HEADLINES IN FAR NORTH/WEST AND
MORE WIDESPREAD FROST HEADLINES IF CLEARING IS AHEAD OF SCHEDULE.

SUNDAY BRINGS A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AS S/W RIDGING MOVES IN.
BOUNDARY LAYER SLOW TO WARM AFTER THE CHILLY START AND ONLY LOW-
MID 50S ARE SUGGESTED GIVEN LIGHT WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND
BETTER WAA REMAINING ATOP THE BOUNDARY LAYER. WARM ADVECTION
BECOMES STRONGER SUNDAY NIGHT AS THETA-E ADVECTION INCREASES AHEAD
OF NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THERE STILL
MAY BE A FROST THREAT IN CNTL OH/SCIOTO VALLEY AS THEY WILL BE
LAST TO SEE INCREASING CLOUDS/SWLY WINDS. DID INTRODUCE A SMALL
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FAR WEST/NORTH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT GIVEN
SIGNALS IN ECMWF/GFS...THOUGH NAM/SREF ARE QUITE DRY IN THE
SUBCLOUD LAYER BELOW THE ADVANCING MID CLOUD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN GFS/ECMWF IN THE OVERALL UPR PATTERN
AND THE ASSOC SFC FEATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED...ALTHOUGH SOME
CHANGES IN BOTH MODELS FROM YESTERDAY INCLUDE A DEEPER UPR LEVEL LOW
AND THEREFOR SLOWER TO DEPART THE REGION PRIOR TO THE DEEP RIDGING
DOMINATING THE CENTRAL/WESTERN CONUS IN THE LATTER PART OF THE
EXTENDED. HAVE LINGERED SHOWERS NOW THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY IN THE
EAST AS THE UPR LOW CONTINUES TO BECOME DEEPER WITH EACH MODEL RUN
AND WILL RESULT IN PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER IN THE EAST WELL INTO
WEDNESDAY. HAVE ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT LOWS UPWARD IN THE TUE NIGHT/WED
NIGHT TIMEFRAME ACCORDINGLY WITH THE DELAY IN POST FRONTAL CLEARING.

WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR UPDATES IN TEMPS/PRECIP/CLOUDS IN THE EAST
IF THE LOW CONTINUES TO SLOW/DEEPEN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MVFR STRATOCU DECK WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION AND PERSIST THROUGH
THE BETTER PART OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS...SCATTERING OUT IN THE 3-6Z
TIME FRAME TOMORROW NIGHT. CIGS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE 2-3KFT
BUT WILL DROP BELOW THIS FOR A PERIOD OF TIME THIS AFTERNOON IN
SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT WILL OCCUR WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...ANOTHER SHOT
OF COLDER AIR WILL DROP CIGS BELOW 2KFT FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF TIME
BEFORE THEY MIX OUT. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 12-14KT WILL BE GUSTY
AT TIMES BUT NOT TOP OUT MUCH PAST 22KT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH AND MIX OUT
CLOUDS AND LET WINDS SLACK IN THE LATE EVENING.

.OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE MON NIGHT THROUGH TUES NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BINAU
NEAR TERM...BINAU/HATZOS
SHORT TERM...BINAU
LONG TERM...JDR
AVIATION...FRANKS








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SAN ANGELO TX

 326 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Weak front has stalled and is dissipating just south of the I-10
corridor early this morning. Low cloud imagery showing low clouds
developing across the Hill Country, and spreading northwest towards
Junction and Mason. Latest RUC suggests that these low clouds will
spread into at least portions of West Central Texas and have
increased cloud cover across the Northwest Hill Country counties for
the morning hours. The low clouds are a sign of the increasing low
level moisture spreading back into the area, and this will keep
overnight lows up tonight. After lows in the low to mid 50s this
morning, lows tonight will be in the mid 50s to near 60 degrees
across the area.

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)

An upper level low will be located across northern Mexico/southern
Arizona. This low will open up and approach West Texas late Sunday
into Monday. As this feature approaches West Central Texas, moisture
will be on the increase. Although the majority of convection will
remain west of our area, isolated showers and thunderstorms will be
possible, mainly west of Sterling City to Mason line. More of the
same is expected on Monday, with the best chance of precipitation
west of a Sterling City to Sonora line. Increased cloud cover will
result in near normal temperatures, with highs Sunday and Monday
generally in the mid 70s to near 80, and overnight lows in the 50s.

Models differences arise for the middle to latter part of next week.
The GFS and ECMWF begin to diverge around Wednesday in the handling
of an upper level trough forecast across the Plains. The GFS
progresses this trough east into the Mississippi Valley, with upper
level ridging building in behind it. The ECMWF has been consistent
in pinching off an upper level low, and slowly moving it south,
across West Central Texas, late Thursday through Saturday. The
forecast was trended closer to the more consistent ECMWF, with
increasing rain chances Wednesday night into Thursday. Uncertainty
remains in the PoP forecast this far out, but rain chances may
eventually need to be increased if the ECMWF solution becomes more
likely. Temperatures from the middle to latter part of the week will
be near normal. Highs will be in the mid 70s to near 80, with
overnight lows in the 50s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  78  55  77  58  80 /   5   0  10  10  10
San Angelo  81  54  77  56  78 /   5   5  20  10  10
Junction  83  60  79  59  80 /  10   5  20  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07/Daniels







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX

 1156 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 6Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS
MORNING. THERE IS A BORDER LINE MVFR/ VFR CLOUD DECK FORMING
TOWARDS OUR SOUTHWEST WHICH HAVE TO HAVE AN EYE KEPT ON. MAIN
CONCERN FOR TONIGHT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY GROUND
FOG. DEWPOINT DEPRESSION AT KLBX IS NOW ZERO WHILE OTHER RURAL
SITES ALSO SHOWING TEMPERATURE/ DEWPOINT GAP NARROWING. A WEAK
SURFACE COLD FRONT IS ALSO SLOWLY HEADED TO THE SOUTH THIS
EVENING. WINDS NEAR THE FRONT ARE VERY LIGHT. THIS WILL ONLY AID
IN THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. RAP AND NEW NAM SHOWING
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS LESS THAN ONE DEGREE NEAR THE FRONT TOMORROW
MORNING. THE FOG SHOULD BE QUICK TO BURN OFF AS THE SUN RISES
THOUGH. 23

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 929 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 01Z SHOWED LIGHT...SOUTHERLY ONSHORE FLOW
ACROSS SOUTHEAST TX. ADDITIONALLY... A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS DRAPED
FROM ROUGHLY CARLSBAD...NM TO SONORA TO NEAR THE D/FW METROPLEX.
LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUE THE FRONT/S PATH INTO THE
FORECAST AREA TOMORROW...ENTERING THE NORTHERN ZONES AROUND 12Z.
INCREASED MOISTURE OVER THE TEXAS GULF COAST WAS EVIDENT ON
TONIGHT/S 00Z SOUNDINGS WITH KCRP/S AND KLCH/S PWAT VALUES NOW
CLOSER TO NORMAL...AS OPPOSED TO THE 25 PERCENT TO TWO STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL LAST NIGHT/S 00Z RAOBS REPORTED. SHALLOW
GROUND FOG DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA OVER THE PAST TWO MORNINGS. GIVEN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION FROM ONSHORE FLOW AND LIGHT WINDS...ESPECIALLY ALONG
TOMORROW MORNING/S FRONT...HAVE ADDED MENTION OF PATCHY FOG MAINLY
WEST AND NORTH OF THE HOUSTON METRO AREA. ADDITIONAL TWEAKS WERE
MADE TO WIND GRIDS... BUT REMAINDER OF FORECAST STILL ON TRACK.

14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      87  63  85  62  82 /   0  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              87  64  86  63  83 /   0  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            85  71  83  69  81 /   0  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...14
AVIATION/MARINE...23




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

 328 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 237 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

OVERALL A VERY QUIET WEEK SETTING UP ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. 18.00Z GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
23.00Z...DIVERGING THEREAFTER WITH THE SPEED AND LOCATION OF A MID-
WEEK EASTERN PACIFIC SHORT-WAVE. WILL USE A BLENDED MODEL SOLUTION
FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

FOR TODAY...THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
WILL MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND ALLOWING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY MID-
LATE AFTERNOON. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW
TO DISSIPATE THIS MORNING...BUT BOTH THE RAP AND HRRR HIGH
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SHOW CLEARING SKIES BY LATE AFTERNOON. AS A
RESULT...DELAYED CLEARING IN THE SKY GRIDS THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS BY 19.00Z. TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.

SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES QUICKLY TO THE EAST. DESPITE CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND WITH NEAR SURFACE WINDS FROM 10 TO
15 KTS...DO NOT EXPECT SIGNIFICANT VALLEY FOG FORMATION. LACK OF
CLOUD COVER AND OVERALL DRY AIR MASS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

500 TO 300 HPA PV ADVECTION INCREASES ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORT-WAVE. MOISTURE RATHER LIMITED ALONG MID-
LEVEL WARM FRONT WITH BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FARTHER NORTH
CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW RIDING ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION ACROSS TAYLOR/CLARK COUNTIES...
BUT EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY...
BUT WITH INCREASING THERMAL PROFILE...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO
THE UPPER 5OS TO LOWER 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE BY
AFTERNOON...GUSTING AT TIMES TO 25 MPH.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS SLOWLY ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. RIDGE AXIS
CUTS RIGHT DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 21.12Z (TUESDAY
MORNING)...SO FOG POTENTIAL IS HIGHER...BUT CERTAINTY NOT GREAT
ENOUGH TO MENTION IN CURRENT FORECAST. LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY VARIATION
IN TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN
THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

BY THURSDAY...THE ECMWF RAPIDLY BREAKS DOWN THE 500 HPA RIDGE
ALLOWING THE NEXT SHORT-WAVE TO CRUISE ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING
A QUICK SHOT OF RAIN. THE GFS...HOWEVER MAINTAINS THE RIDGE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...SLOWING THE WAVE/S EASTWARD PROGRESS AND
KEEPING RAIN WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT. THE
GFS SOLUTION ALSO WEAKENS THE WAVE RESULTING IN LESS RAINFALL. FOR
NOW...WILL KEEP LOW-END POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. HEIGHTS RISE THURSDAY...ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO REACH BACK INTO THE LOWER 60S. BY FRIDAY...
850 HPA TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM +12 TO +15 C WHICH SHOULD RESULT
IN SURFACE VALUES INTO THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1110 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

VFR CLOUDS DID WORK ACROSS THE TAF SITES LATE THIS EVENING...WITH
THE CLEAR SPOT IN THE CLOUD SHIELD SLIDING SOUTH...JUST WEST OF
KRST. MORE 1.5-2.5 KFT CIGS ARE SITUATED JUST NORTH OF THE CLEAR
SLOT...WITH SATELLITE/OBS TRENDS SPREADING THESE BACK ACROSS THE TAF
SITES AROUND 06Z.

RH FIELDS AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FAVOR KEEPING THE LOW SATURATION-MVFR
CIGS IN THROUGH SAT MORNING...WITH SUBSIDENCE POST A DEPARTING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CLEARING THE SKIES SAT
AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL DECOUPLE WITH SUNDOWN SAT EVENING...AND WITH CLEAR
SKIES...SEE SOME POTENTIAL FOR RIVER VALLEY FOG AT KLSE. A COUPLE
DETRACTORS - SOME HIGH CLOUDS COULD BE SPILLING IN FROM THE WEST
OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE
OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH SLIPS SOUTHEAST. ITS NOT A PERFECT SETUP FOR
FG...BUT ENOUGH ELEMENTS THAT IT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. COULD JUST
BE SOME THIN STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPS ON THE RIVER AND STAYS THERE.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS
AVIATION.....RIECK




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

 958 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
958 AM CDT

FOR MORNING UPDATE...

INCREASED POPS MARKEDLY ACROSS NORTHEAST IL AND NORTHWEST INDIANA
THROUGH REMAINDER OF THE MORNING HOURS...WITH SOLID AREA OF RAIN
MOVING SOUTHWARD OUT OF SOUTHEASTERN WISCONSIN IN ASSOCIATION WITH
DEEP MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT IS DIGGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. RAPID-REFRESH (HRRR) SEEMS TO HAVE A DECENT
HANDLE ON THIS AREA OF RAIN...WITH THE HRRR AND TIMING OF TRAILING
EDGE OF PRECIP FROM RADAR SUGGESTING RAIN WILL END ACROSS CHICAGO
AREA AROUND NOON...AND DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON FARTHER SOUTHEAST.

SOME LAKE EFFECT SPRINKLES WILL LIKELY LINGER ACROSS NORTHWEST
INDIANA FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT
A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LOWERING BEHIND THIS
RATHER STOUT WAVE THIS AFTERNOON SIGNIFICANTLY LIMITING CLOUD DEPTH
LATER ON. THIS IS ALSO EXPECTED TO HELP OPEN UP MORE HOLES IN
EXTENSIVE STRATOCU SHIELD UPSTREAM ACROSS WI...THOUGH WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR SATELLITE TRENDS AS OUR CURRENT FORECAST INDICATES LESS
CLOUD COVER BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. IF CLOUD COVER REMAINS MORE
EXTENSIVE MAY HAVE TO REVISIT HIGH TEMPS TOO...WITH COOL ADVECTION
CURRENTLY FEEDING AIR IN FROM WISCONSIN WHICH HAS TEMPS ONLY IN THE
LOW-MID 40S.

RATZER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
323 AM CDT

WITH 12 OF THE 17 DAYS SO FAR THIS MONTH WITH PRECIPITATION
/INCLUDING ONE WITH A LITTLE SNOW/...WE REMAIN IN THAT SAME THEME
WITH CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO KICK OFF THE WEEKEND THIS
MORNING AND THEN TO END IT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THAT ALONG
WITH AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND INFLUENCE ON TEMPERATURES THIS
WEEKEND WERE THE MAIN EMPHASIS IN THIS FORECAST.

.TODAY...
THE TWO UPPER LOWS THAT BROUGHT PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER TO THE LOCAL
AREA OVER THIS PAST WEEK HAVE MERGED AS A BROADER UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES. CHARGING DOWN THE
BACK/WEST SIDE OF THIS TROUGH IS A SHARPLY DEFINED VORTICITY
MAXIMUM OVER WESTERN WI EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS IS BRINGING A
FAIRLY FOCUSED AREA OF ASCENT AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES OF
7-8C/KM IN THE 700-550MB LAYER. RADAR MOSAIC INDICATES SWATHS OF
MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS IN CENTRAL/NORTHERN WI AND HIGH-RES GUIDANCE
HAS TRENDED UPWARD THE PAST FEW HOURS IN KEEPING THIS INTACT
ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH SATELLITE TRENDS SUPPORT. WITH A VERY
TRACKABLE FEATURE SUCH AS THIS /ALMOST REMINISCENT OF THE CLIPPERS
OF LAST WINTER/...HAVE TIMED THIS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING WITH ANY ONE PLACE IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST
INDIANA HAVING AN APPROXIMATELY 3 HOUR WINDOW OF SOME OFF AND ON
LIGHT RAIN. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS PORTER COUNTY WHICH LOOKS TO
REMAIN UNDER A LAKE EFFECT FETCH WITH HIGH ENOUGH INVERSION LEVELS
OF 8000 FT TO SUPPORT PERSISTENT SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY-MID
AFTERNOON.

THIS MID-LEVEL WAVE THIS MORNING EVEN HAS A SURFACE REFLECTION WHICH
BASICALLY IS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL ESTABLISH THE CLOUDS THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY
AS WELL AS KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM CLIMBING THIS MORNING. FORECAST
HIGHS ARE 8 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW MID-OCTOBER NORMALS. THE CLOUDS
WILL PROBABLY HANG TO NEAR SUNDOWN FOR THE EASTERN FORECAST
AREA...WITH AREAS OF NORTHWEST INDIANA LIKELY TO REMAIN UNDER LAKE
CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE EVENING AND POSSIBLY ALL NIGHT.

.TONIGHT...
WHILE THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES FOR WHEN LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS SCATTER
IN FAR NORTHWEST INDIANA...THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD
SEE FAIRLY DRAMATIC CLEARING LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVE. CLEARING GOING INTO THE NIGHT WITH A 1023MB HIGH SETTLING
OVERHEAD OFFERS THE BEST POTENTIAL SO FAR FOR A WIDESPREAD FROST.
HAVE COLLABORATED WITH NEIGHBORING NWS OFFICES AND ISSUED A FROST
ADVISORY. WILL GO AHEAD AND INCLUDE COOK COUNTY TOO BUT THAT WILL
BE FOR MAINLY OUTLYING AREAS. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS PROBABLE FOR AT
LEAST PATCHY LOCATIONS IN NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS TO DIP TO OR
BELOW FREEZING...SO WITHIN THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES AN UPGRADE
TO A FREEZE WARNING WOULD BE NEEDED TODAY.

.SUNDAY AND MONDAY...
WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ONE MORE SYSTEM IN THIS CURRENT WAVE TRAIN
IS FORECAST TO DROP THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE
WARM SECTOR PART OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE AREA
DURING SUNDAY...A PATTERN SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AND SIMILARLY WE
SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.
THIS ALONG WITH THE COOL STARTING POINT LOOK TO KEEP TEMPS DOWN
FROM WHAT THE 850-925MB CLIMATOLOGICALLY WOULD YIELD. HAVE HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. THE AIR LOOKS DRY AT FIRST BUT DURING
SUNDAY NIGHT THERE IS A LITTLE BETTER POTENTIAL TO RATTLE OUT
SOME LIGHT RAIN THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS INDICATED. WINDS AND
CLOUD SHOULD KEEP SUNDAY NIGHT TEMPS FROM DROPPING MUCH.

THE SYSTEM COLD FRONT PASSES DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH CONTINUED
SCATTERED SHOWER CHANCES. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDS AND IT LOOKS LIKE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS INTO NORTHWEST
INDIANA AND POSSIBLY EVEN FAR NORTHEAST ILLINOIS DEPENDING ON HOW
VEERED THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS.

.NEXT WEEK...
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST LOOKS FAIRLY QUIET AS THE AMPLIFIED
PATTERN CONTINUES BUT WE GET UNDER A SLOWING UPPER RIDGE DURING THIS
TIME. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO GRADUALLY MODERATE IN THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK WITH CERTAINLY THE POSSIBILITY TO WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL
GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN FORECAST BY MOST OF THE LONG RANGE
MODELS.

MTF

&&

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 14Z...

* NORTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KT TURNING BACK NORTHERLY THIS MORNING...
  WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT THRU MIDDAY.

* LIGHT RAIN HAS ARRIVED AND WILL CONTINUE UNTIL JUST BEFORE 18Z.

* MVFR CIGS THRU EARLY AFTERNOON.

* POSSIBLE WIND SHIFT TO NORTH/NORTHEAST LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
  EVENING.

BEACHLER

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...

AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING
BRINGING A 2-4 HOUR PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN TO THE TERMINALS. CURRENT
VISIBILITIES WITH THE RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL WI ARE VFR BUT SOME
BRIEF MVFR VIS IS POSSIBLE. MVFR CIGS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA
AND EXPECT PREVAILING MVFR CIGS FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING INTO
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH THERE COULD BE PERIODS WHERE CIGS GO
VFR...POSSIBLY DURING RAIN. CIGS WILL LIFT TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON
THEN SCATTER OUT BY EARLY EVENING WITH JUST HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED
TONIGHT.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL TURN BACK NORTHERLY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AND BEGIN TO GUST INTO THE 18-20KT RANGE MID/LATE MORNING. AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING...THE GRADIENT WILL STEADILY WEAKEN. THUS GUSTS SHOULD
DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS MAY TURN MORE NORTH/
NORTHEAST AT ORD/MDW BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE REGARDING WIND DIRECTION DURING THIS TIME. WINDS WILL
THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR CALM BY MID/LATE EVENING. CMS

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 14Z...

* MEDIUM FOR WIND SPEEDS/GUSTS/DIRECTIONS THRU EARLY AFTERNOON...
  THEN LOW FOR LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP REMAINING LIGHT...MEDIUM/HIGH
  CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP ENDING BY 18Z.

* HIGH FOR MVFR CIGS THRU EARLY AFTERNOON.

BEACHLER

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

* SUNDAY NIGHT...CHANCE OF SHRA.
* MONDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA. WEST WINDS BECOMING NORTH.
* TUESDAY...DRY/VFR. NORTHEAST WINDS.
* WEDNESDAY...DRY/VFR. EAST WINDS.
* THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DRY/VFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...

258 PM...LOW PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL DRIFT EAST TODAY BUT REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY THIS WEEKEND. A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING FROM MANITOBA SOUTH TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY. THE GRADIENT
WILL SLOWLY RELAX THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON BUT THEN
RAPIDLY WEAKEN LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. MAINTAINED THE
GALE WARNING AS IS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT ITS POSSIBLE THAT
MAY BE JUST A TAD TOO LONG...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE LAKE.

WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY SUNDAY MORNING THEN STEADILY
INCREASE TO 15-25KT SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT
NORTHWEST MONDAY AND THEN NORTHERLY MONDAY NIGHT AND INCREASE INTO
THE 15-25KT RANGE. CMS

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...FROST ADVISORY...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-
     ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022-
     ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039...3 AM SUNDAY TO 8 AM SUNDAY.

IN...FROST ADVISORY...INZ019...3 AM SUNDAY TO 8 AM SUNDAY.

LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
     LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-
     LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 1 PM SATURDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 4 AM SUNDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 10 AM SUNDAY.

&&

$$

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 738 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 443 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH MUCH OF THE MOISTURE ON WV IMAGERY
BEGINNING TO DIVE SOUTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA. AT THE
SURFACE...A 988MB LOW CENTERED OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC IS STRETCHING A
COLD FRONT SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. BEHIND
THIS COLD FRONT...STRONG NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS ARE IN PLACE OVER
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WITH GUSTS TO 35KTS SEEN AT 2AM OVER
EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THESE GUSTY WINDS HAVE HELPED AID UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT OF THE RAINFALL OVER THE AREA IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NORTH CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN. 24HR RAINFALL AMOUNT AT OUR OFFICE WAS
1.43 INCHES THROUGH 2AM...WHILE LOCATIONS NEAR THE LAKE SHORE IN
MARQUETTE COUNTY HAVE ONLY SEEN AROUND 0.9 INCHES. DID SEE SOME
SNOW MIX IN AT OUR OFFICE (STARTED SHORTLY AFTER 2AM) AND ALSO ON
SOME OF THE WESTERN U.P. WEBCAMS...WHICH MATCHES UP WITH MODEL
WETBULB0 VALUES. BUT...WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT ALREADY SURGING INTO
THE AREA...SEEN IN THE QUICK DIMINISHMENT OF RADAR RETURNS OVER THE
LAST 1-1.5HRS...DO HAVE SOME CONCERN WITH HOW MUCH SNOW WILL
CONTINUE TO MIX IN. THIS IS DUE TO THE STRENGTHENING INVERSION
AROUND 850MB BOTH TRAPPING IN MOISTURE BELOW IT AND ALSO LIMITING
THE TOP OF THE CLOUD TO AROUND -5 TO -7C. THIS IS MARGINAL FOR ICE
CRYSTALS TO BE IN THE CLOUDS AND ALTHOUGH THE WETBULB0 VALUES WOULD
SUPPORT MAINLY SNOW...WILL GO WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE UNCERTAINTY OF ICE CRYSTALS. HAVE BEEN IMPRESSED AT HOW QUICKLY
THE SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED WITH THE DEPARTING DEEP MOISTURE AND
THAT LEADS TO LIMITED CONFIDENCE ON HOW LONG THE
SCATTERED/ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL LINGER TODAY. WITH THE DEEP
MOISTURE GONE...FORCING COMES FROM LAKE SUPERIOR AND UPSLOPE. WITH
THE LAKE INFLUENCE LIMITED DUE TO LAKE SUPERIOR TEMPS AROUND 7C
(CREATING MARGINAL DELTA-T VALUES FOR PURE LAKE EFFECT)...WILL
FOCUS THE BEST POPS WHERE THE ADDED UPSLOPE INFLUENCE IS OVER
THE NORTH CENTRAL U.P. WILL DIMINISH PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH
THE DAY AND HAVE THEM DONE BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...WILL
HOLD ON TO SOME CLOUD COVER INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH THAT MOISTURE
TRAPPED BELOW THE INVERSION...BUT EXPECT DIURNAL MIXING AND
INCREASING LOW LEVEL DRY AIR (FROM THE APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE) TO HELP SCATTER THE CLOUDS OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON AWAY FROM
THE PERSISTENT NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. THE
CLOUDS COMBINED WITH THE THERMAL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
WILL LEAD TO A COOL DAY TODAY AND HAVE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S AND
LOWER 40S.

WITH DECREASING CLOUDS AND THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVING DIRECTLY
OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...EXPECT A GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING PERIOD
THIS EVENING AND FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN. THAT WILL LEAD TO A COLD AND FROSTY NIGHT FOR THE U.P.
AND WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE LOW END OF GUIDANCE FOR LOWS
TONIGHT. ONE THING TO KEEP AN EYE ON IS THE CLOUDS FOR THE NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST CWA THIS EVENING AND INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT
HOURS. WITH THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUING TO PRODUCE SOME
LAKE INFLUENCE WITH THE MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW THE
INVERSION...COULD SEE THE CLOUDS IN THOSE AREAS HANGING ON FOR MUCH
OF THE NIGHT. THUS...DID KEEP TEMPS A LITTLE HIGHER IN SOME OF
THOSE LOCATIONS FOR TONIGHT. FINALLY...HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW MOVING
THROUGH ON SUNDAY NIGHT. THOSE HIGH CLOUDS AND RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPING BEHIND THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH MAY LEAD TO TEMPS
WARMING SLIGHTLY OVER THE WEST TOWARDS DAY BREAK.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 443 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

SURFACE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY WILL SHIFT INTO THE
EASTERN LAKES ON SUNDAY AS NEXT SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF
CANADA INTO THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH POSITION OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S.
NOT AS MUCH MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE THIS TIME AROUND AND ONLY EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO ACCOMPANY THE SURFACE/UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE LATE
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY.

BEYOND MONDAY...A MUCH NEEDED BREAK FROM THE WET WEATHER IS ON THE
WAY. UPPER RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL NUDGE JUST FAR
ENOUGH EAST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ALLOWING FOR A STRING OF DRY
AND MILD DAYS FOR THE TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 738 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

COLD AIR AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND THE SYSTEM THAT
MOVED THROUGH THE AREA YESTERDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MVFR
CEILINGS TO THE THREE TAF SITES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY.
THEN...DRIER AIR FROM A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING INTO THE AREA
WILL LEAD TO DECREASING CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND A MOSTLY
CLEAR NIGHT TONIGHT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 443 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

A LOW SPINNING OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE A COLD
FRONT EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING.
AS THIS OCCURS...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES TODAY AND LEAD TO QUICKLY DIMINISHING WINDS ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR. WILL CONTINUE THE GALE WARNINGS OVER THE EASTERN LAKE
WITH STILL A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS OCCURRING...BUT IT SHOULD
DIMINISH BELOW GALES AFTER SUNRISE. EXPECT WINDS TO STAY BELOW 25KTS
FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LSZ249>251-266-267.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LMZ221-248-250.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...SRF
MARINE...SRF






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS DULUTH MN

 631 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

UPDATED FOR THE NEW 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM MANITOBA INTO THE DAKOTAS WILL MOVE
EAST TODAY OVER THE NORTHLAND...THEN CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION TONIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND A SHORTWAVE WILL THEN
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

LATEST RADAR SHOWS ECHO COVERAGE DIMINISHING OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS...AND THIS IS IN LINE WITH LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. THE
GRAVITY WAVE INDUCED AREA OF PRECIP OVER THE NORTH SHORE INTO THE
HEAD OF LAKE SUPERIOR HAS ENDED...AS FORECAST BY THE RAP DUE TO DECREASING
MOISTURE AND WIND SPEED. A FAVORABLE SET FOR LAKE EFFECT PRECIP
EXISTS ACROSS NORTHERN ASHLAND/IRON COUNTIES AS FAR AS FETCH AND
DELTA-T VALUES ARE CONCERNED THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...DEEPER MOISTURE
WILL BE QUITE LIMITED AND INVERSION LEVELS WILL BE LOWERING
THROUGH THE MORNING. WE WILL CARRY SOME POPS FOR A TIME THIS
MORNING...BUT THINK THE LACK OF MOISTURE WILL SHUT DOWN ANY LAKE
EFFECT LATER THIS MORNING. THERE WERE STILL PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND AND UPSTREAM OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO THIS MORNING. THE
RAP DOES SHOW THESE CLOUDS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THROUGH THE
DAY...AND WE EXPECT CLEARING FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH THE DAY. MORE
SUN IS EXPECTED EARLIER FROM THE NORTH SHORE CLOSE TO THE LAKE
DOWN TOWARD THE TWIN PORTS DUE TO SUBSIDENCE DOWN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING...THEN CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
AS A SHORTWAVE AND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE IN. THE AIRMASS IS
INITIALLY QUITE DRY...SO WE DELAYED ANY POPS UNTIL LATE TONIGHT
OVER NORTHERN AREAS. WE HAVE A CHANCE OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF
THE REGION SUNDAY...WITH LOW POPS SOUTH AND HIGHER POPS FAR NORTH.
RAINFALL WILL BE QUITE LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH MOST AREAS ONLY
RECEIVING A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM NW ONTARIO TO THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. ITS COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE NORTHLAND. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
OVER THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT FROM THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS ON MONDAY TO THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES BY TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING WARMER WEATHER TO THE REGION FOR
THE MIDDLE AND LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY...THEY WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT 5
TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

A PASSING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE COULD BRING SHOWERS TO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE GFS AND GEM ARE MUCH DRIER THAN THE
ECMWF...SO THE LOW PCPN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST ARE PRIMARILY A
REFLECTION OF THE WETTER ECWMF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

MUCH OF NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN HAD OVC MVFR CIGS EARLY THIS
MORNING. THERE SHOULD BE GRADUAL SCATTERING AND LIFTING LATER THIS
MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL
REDEVELOP VFR CONDITIONS BY SOMETIME EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE VFR
WILL THEN CONTINUE INTO EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  48  34  56  42 /   0  10  30  10
INL  46  37  59  40 /   0  20  30   0
BRD  49  40  62  42 /   0  10  10   0
HYR  47  31  57  41 /   0  10  20   0
ASX  48  31  56  42 /  10  10  30  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR LSZ121-140-
     146>148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

 605 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

QUIET SHORT TERM PERIOD AHEAD...WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.
CURRENTLY...WIDESPREAD LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER CAN BE SEEN FROM THE
GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM CANADA.  CYCLONICALLY CURVED FLOW WILL REMAIN
OVERHEAD THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...AND MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
SIGNIFICANT DRYING TAKING PLACE IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...BUT
PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND IT WILL
TAKE UNTIL THE ANTI-CYCLONIC CIRCULATION COMBINED WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES ARRIVE TO SCATTER OUT THE CLOUD DECK FROM MID DAY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  THIS UPDATE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT DELAY IN
CLEARING SKIES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  THE SURFACE TEMPS WILL
BATTLE THIS EXTENDED SKY COVER...SO SLIGHTLY LOWERED THE FORECAST
HIGHS FOR TODAY. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTH INITIALLY...AROUND
5-10 KTS BUT THE ELONGATE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL WORK
ACROSS THE FA TODAY...SO EXPECT A FEW HOURS OF ESSENTIALLY CALM
WINDS /EARLY ACROSS THE WEST...LATER EAST/ BEFORE THEY TURN
SOUTHERLY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BE MILD AND DRY OVERALL...AS A LARGE
SCALE OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN PREVAILS FOR NEXT WEEK. THE ONLY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BOOKEND THE TIMEFRAME...WITH SUNDAY AND
THURSDAY APPEARING TO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PROVIDE A FEW SHOWERS
DURING THE TRANSITIONS INTO AND OUT OF THE BLOCKING PATTERN.

REGARDING SUNDAY PRECIPITATION CHANCES...MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO
TREND TOWARD A DRIER SOLUTION FOR THE LOCAL AREA...WITH THE BETTER
MOISTURE/FORCING DISPLACED TO THE NORTH/EAST OF THE AREA. HAVE
RETAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FAR NORTHEAST NEAR
LADYSMITH...BUT THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA SHOULD STAY DRY.

BY MONDAY...THE SURFACE LOW SHIFTS WELL EAST OF THE AREA...AND THE
MID LEVEL RIDGE WORKS INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA. HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE 55 TO 65 DEGREE RANGE WILL THEN BE COMMON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

BY THURSDAY...A POTENT LITTLE SHORTWAVE PRESSES ACROSS THE ROCKIES
AND HIGH PLAINS...AND BRINGS AN END TO THE MID LEVEL RIDGING. THE 18.00Z
ECMWF WAS FASTER WITH THIS SCENARIO...AND BROUGHT SHOWERS INTO THE
AREA AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...THE 18.00Z GFS WAS
ABOUT 18 HOURS SLOWER WITH THE BAND OF RAIN. LEANED TOWARD THE
ECMWF ENSEMBLE AS THE PREFERRED SOLUTION....WHICH EXPANDS
PRECIPITATION EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...AND LINGERS IT ON THURSDAY.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...TEMPERATURES ARE UNAFFECTED...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. THE CHANCE OF LOW
TEMPERATURES DIPPING BELOW FREEZING THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD NEXT WEEK IS LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 554 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

THE FA WILL REMAIN SOCKED IN WITH MVFR CIGS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MORNING ACROSS THE EAST...AND EVEN LONGER TO THE WEST. THE LATEST
NAM IS FAIRLY PESSIMISTIC IN TIMING THE SCATTERING OF THE CLOUD
DECK TODAY. I DO THINK IT MAY BE OVERDOING THE RH VALUES
INDICATED IN THE MODEL SOUNDINGS...BUT THE RAP HAD A GOOD HANDLE
ON THE CLOUD COVER FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT SO LEANED THAT DIRECTION.
THIS RESULTED IN AN UPDATED FORECAST THAT EXTENDED THE MVFR CIGS
BY A FEW HOURS AT MOST SITES...BUT NOT AS LONG AS THE LATEST NAM
WOULD LIKE TO GO. SO THERE IS SOME DECENT UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF
THE CLOUD DECK SCATTERING. WESTERN MN REMAINS LOCKED IN WITH
THICKER CLOUD COVER SO IT WILL TAKE LONGER FOR IT TO SCATTER OUT.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AXIS WORKS ACROSS THE FA...THEN TURN SOUTHERLY LATER IN
THE PERIOD.

KMSP...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE CEILING WILL START BREAKING UP
AROUND NOON BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT HIGH. NAM SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF THESE CEILINGS LASTING THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. WINDS SW 10-15 KTS.
MON...VFR. WINDS NW 10 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS SE 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...SPD







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION

NWS ST LOUIS MO

 632 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Tonight)
Issued at 334 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2014

Early morning water vapor imagery and RAP PV analyses both
depicted a strong shortwave located over northern MN and
southwestern ONT. This feature is forecast to dive southward and
southeastward today, moving through parts of central IL before
reaching KY and TN by 00z. This system appears to be
moisture-starved and no pcpn is expected with its passage near the
LSX CWA. Meanwhile, a cool Canadian high pressure center will
build in at the surface today and tonight. The ridge axis should
be nearly overhead by 12z, resulting in good radiational cooling
conditions and rather cool overnight/early morning lows for Sunday
morning. Patchy frost in sheltered areas is not out of the
question.

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM:  (Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 334 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2014

Winds become southerly to southwesterly on Sunday once the
aforementioned high pressure center shifts southeastward. Another
shortwave moving through the Great Lakes will lead to increased
precipitation chances from late Sunday night through Monday
afternoon. Models are showing at least some moisture being drawn
into the area ahead of the shortwave, therefore slight chance to
chance PoPs look appropriate at this time.

A pattern resembling an omega block is forecast over the CONUS for
most of next week. Dry easterly or southeasterly surface flow is
expected through the middle of the week across the LSX CWA.
ECMWF/GFS/GEM all agree that the highly amplified upper ridge axis
will shift eastward with time, but initially small differences in
the handling of a weak vort max crossing the Rockies ultimately
lead to large differences between models regarding the large scale
upper air pattern over the central CONUS by next Thursday.

Kanofsky

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 619 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2014

Fast moving short wave aloft will move through today reinforcing
the cool air and keeping a north northwest wind flow. MVFR clouds
will move quickly across Iowa into UIN by late morning and into
COU by Noon. Guidance keeps the clouds VFR, and given the time of
of arrival and the fact the short wave will be shearing east more
than diving south, will go with this scenario. However an hour or
so of MVRF is possible. High pressure will move in overnight with
light and variable wind. Guidance wants to bring in fog at the
usual suspects (SUS, CPS) about 12z. With 00kt wind and clear sky,
possible, but will leave out for now given the time of expected
formation being at the end of the forecast period.

Specifics for KSTL: VFR expected with a northwest wind today
becoming light and variable overnight as high pressure moves
overhead. Southerly wind returns Sunday moring as the high quickly
moves east.

JPK

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND FORKS ND

 1017 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1015 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES NEEDED YET THIS FORENOON. LOW LEVEL CLOUD
DECK STILL FIRMLY IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA
WILL VERY SLOWLY ERODE AND SHIFT NOERTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE LATER
AFTERNOON. DAYTIME TEMPS WILL SEE ONLY MODEST GAINS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 610 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

THE LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO INDICATE CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OVER MOST
OF THE FA THROUGH MOST OF THIS AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD BE SOME
THINNING OF CLOUDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE EDGES OF THE
FA...BUT THE VALLEY SHOULD REMAIN CLOUDY THROUGH MOST OF TODAY.
HAVE ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS TO INDICATE MORE CLOUDS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE CLOUD TRENDS TODAY AND TEMPS OVERALL.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT...WITH THEN NAM HAVING A
BETTER HANDLE ON THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS OVER THE REGION NOW.

FOR TODAY...A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL BE OVER THE AREA
TODAY...AND THIS SHOULD TRAP CLOUDS AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST.
EXPECTING A CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY MORNING FOR ALL AREAS. THERE
SHOULD BE SOME THINNING OF CLOUDS ON THE WEST AND EASTERN EDGES OF
THE FA AFTER 18Z...BUT CLOUDS COULD REMAIN MOST OF THE AFTERNOON
IN THE VALLEY. HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST IN THE DIRECTION OF MORE
CLOUDS...AND TWEAKED HIGHS DOWN A FEW DEGREES. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL SLOWLY INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD ALSO CAUSE
CLOUDS TO THIN BY 21Z.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP AND A MILD NIGHT IS
EXPECTED WITH MINIMAL TEMP FALL FOR MOST AREAS WITH WINDS
REMAINING AROUND 10KT...PERHAPS A BIT HIGHER.

ON SUNDAY...A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
REGION. THERE IS NO DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE TO SPEAK OF...SO
EXPECTING A DRY SYSTEM. THERE WILL BE COOLING IN THE MID
LEVELS...BUT WITH FAVORABLE WESTERLY WIND FLOW SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...TEMPS SHOULD STILL RISE ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

ON MONDAY...THE GFS IS COOLER THAN THE NAM AND WOULD YIELD HIGHS
IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60...WITH THE NAM A BIT WARMER. TEMPS SHOULD
BE COOLER THAN SUNDAY THOUGH WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND LIMITED MIXING
OVER THE AREA.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING IN A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MID WEEK...ALTHOUGH THERE CONTINUE TO BE DIFFERENCES IN
THE TIMING. THE ECMWF IS FASTER AND PRODUCES MORE PRECIP THAN THE
GFS AND GEM ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE OTHER OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE
SLOWER AND DRIER. SEVERAL OF THE NAEFS MEMBERS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH
THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF...SO THERE IS ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY TO INCLUDE
SOME POPS FOR WEDNESDAY DURING THE DAY. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE
PRECIP THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND IN THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES
THURSDAY BEFORE DRYING OUT ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER
THAN AVERAGE WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 60S UNDER RIDGING TO SOUTHWEST
AND WEST FLOW ALOFT. THERE ARE SOME SIGNS OF A SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA WHICH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH
SOMETIME LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN
FAIRLY MILD AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 610 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

A BAND OF MVFR CIGS REMAINS OVER THE ENTIRE REGION. EXPECT CLOUDS
TO SLOWLY ERODE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR PERHAPS EVEN AROUND 00Z.
THERE SHOULD BE CLEARING IN THE WEST FIRST...WITH CLOUDS LINGERING
IN THE VALLEY AREAS UNTIL AROUND OR AFTER 00Z. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST AND REMAIN AND COULD
GUST TO AROUND 20KT NEAR KDVL THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GUST
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK/JR
AVIATION...DK







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

 628 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

WARM FRONT OVER EASTERN MONTANA WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA TODAY. CURRENTLY...MVFR-IFR CEILINGS ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR
WESTERN TIER COUNTIES. ALSO SOME PATCHY FOG...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
WESTERN FRINGE OF THE LOW STRATUS. TEMPERATURES WERE FAIRLY
UNIFORM IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S UNDER THE CLOUD COVER...EXCEPT FOR
SOME LOWER 30S FAR SOUTHWEST WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED. PATCHY FOG
IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE QUICKLY THIS MORNING WITH INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH THE ADVANCING WARM FRONT. STRATUS IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE EAST OF THE MINOT AND BISMARCK AREAS AROUND MIDDAY AND
HANG ON OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND TURTLE MOUNTAINS THROUGH
THE EARLY AFTERNOON. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER
KEEPING MVFR CEILINGS IN THE FAR EAST THROUGH AROUND 20-21 UTC.
OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

MAIN CONCERNS TODAY WILL BE THE TIMING OF ERODING LOW CLOUDS
ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND THE PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT/COLD
FRONT IN THE NEXT 24HR. THE LATEST FOG/STRATUS LOOP IN CONJUNCTION
WITH HRRR CEILING FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT EARLY
THIS MORNING AND HAVE UTILIZED THIS FOR THE SKY GRIDS. ESSENTIALLY
EXPECT THE BACK EDGE OF THE LOW CLOUDS...WHICH CURRENTLY STRETCH
ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM CROSBY TO WILLISTON/WATFORD
CITY/DICKINSON/ELGIN...TO BEGIN ERODING FROM WEST TO EAST AT
15Z...THEN WORKING INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BETWEEN 18Z-20Z.
INCREASING 3HR PRESSURE FALLS DUE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION/RISING
MOTION NOW ENTERING THE WEST WILL HELP FACILITATE THE EROSION OF
THE LOW CLOUDS DURING THE MORNING AND SHIFT THE CLEARING LINE EAST
BY EARLY AFTERNOON. ONCE THIS OCCURS EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
WITH SCT MID/HIGH CLOUDS LATER TODAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONTAL
PASSAGE ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED
BY A COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT. COOLING WILL BE MINIMAL BEHIND
THIS FRONT. H85 TEMPS RISE TO +9/10C SATURDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER
MIXING HEIGHTS WILL REACH ONLY TO AROUND 890MB..SO WILL NOT SEE
THE FULL MIXING/WARMTH POTENTIAL AS THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ABOVE
THIS LEVEL REMAINS STRONG. BOTH FRONTAL PASSAGES WILL BE DRY.
EXPECT HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL TO
LOWER 60S WEST. LOWS OF AROUND 40F CAN BE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE A CONTINUED WARM
AND DRY PERIOD AS A LONG WAVE RIDGE TRAVERSES EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE STATE FROM NW TO SE ON
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...BUT OTHER THAN CLOUDS...DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS BEST MOISTURE REMAINS EAST AND NORTH OF ND.

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MID-WEEK DEPICTING LONG WAVE
RIDGE SLOWLY PUSHING EAST ACROSS NORTH AMERICA...RESULTING IN MUCH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER.

THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK SEES THE RIDGE AXIS PASS TO OUR
EAST...THOUGH DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT ANOMALOUSLY HIGH HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT HIGH
TEMPS WELL INTO THE 60S THROUGH THE WEEK.

GFS/ECMWF SHOW SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING BEHIND THE UPPER RIDGE. MAIN ENERGY SPLITS TO THE
NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA RESULTING IN SOME VERY LOW POPS
OVER THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. OTHERWISE
DRY WEATHER DOMINATES THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW
MVFR TO IFR CIGS FROM KMOT TO KBIS AND EAST INTO KJMS. KISN REMAINS
JUST FAR ENOUGH WEST TO AVOID ANY LOW CIGS WHILE KDIK REMAINS ON THE
FRINGE OF VFR/IFR CIGS UNTIL 15Z...THEN VFR. EXPECT AN IMPROVEMENT
TO VFR CIGS AT KMOT/KBIS BETWEEN 18Z-19Z...AND BY AROUND 20Z AT
KJMS. THEREAFTER...VFR CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL AERODROMES
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...KS






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND FORKS ND

 611 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 610 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

THE LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO INDICATE CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OVER MOST
OF THE FA THROUGH MOST OF THIS AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD BE SOME
THINNING OF CLOUDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE EDGES OF THE
FA...BUT THE VALLEY SHOULD REMAIN CLOUDY THROUGH MOST OF TODAY.
HAVE ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS TO INDICATE MORE CLOUDS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE CLOUD TRENDS TODAY AND TEMPS OVERALL.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT...WITH THEN NAM HAVING A
BETTER HANDLE ON THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS OVER THE REGION NOW.

FOR TODAY...A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL BE OVER THE AREA
TODAY...AND THIS SHOULD TRAP CLOUDS AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST.
EXPECTING A CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY MORNING FOR ALL AREAS. THERE
SHOULD BE SOME THINNING OF CLOUDS ON THE WEST AND EASTERN EDGES OF
THE FA AFTER 18Z...BUT CLOUDS COULD REMAIN MOST OF THE AFTERNOON
IN THE VALLEY. HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST IN THE DIRECTION OF MORE
CLOUDS...AND TWEAKED HIGHS DOWN A FEW DEGREES. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL SLOWLY INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD ALSO CAUSE
CLOUDS TO THIN BY 21Z.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP AND A MILD NIGHT IS
EXPECTED WITH MINIMAL TEMP FALL FOR MOST AREAS WITH WINDS
REMAINING AROUND 10KT...PERHAPS A BIT HIGHER.

ON SUNDAY...A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
REGION. THERE IS NO DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE TO SPEAK OF...SO
EXPECTING A DRY SYSTEM. THERE WILL BE COOLING IN THE MID
LEVELS...BUT WITH FAVORABLE WESTERLY WIND FLOW SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...TEMPS SHOULD STILL RISE ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

ON MONDAY...THE GFS IS COOLER THAN THE NAM AND WOULD YIELD HIGHS
IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60...WITH THE NAM A BIT WARMER. TEMPS SHOULD
BE COOLER THAN SUNDAY THOUGH WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND LIMITED MIXING
OVER THE AREA.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING IN A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MID WEEK...ALTHOUGH THERE CONTINUE TO BE DIFFERENCES IN
THE TIMING. THE ECMWF IS FASTER AND PRODUCES MORE PRECIP THAN THE
GFS AND GEM ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE OTHER OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE
SLOWER AND DRIER. SEVERAL OF THE NAEFS MEMBERS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH
THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF...SO THERE IS ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY TO INCLUDE
SOME POPS FOR WEDNESDAY DURING THE DAY. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE
PRECIP THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND IN THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES
THURSDAY BEFORE DRYING OUT ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER
THAN AVERAGE WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 60S UNDER RIDGING TO SOUTHWEST
AND WEST FLOW ALOFT. THERE ARE SOME SIGNS OF A SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA WHICH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH
SOMETIME LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN
FAIRLY MILD AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 610 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

A BAND OF MVFR CIGS REMAINS OVER THE ENTIRE REGION. EXPECT CLOUDS
TO SLOWLY ERODE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR PERHAPS EVEN AROUND 00Z.
THERE SHOULD BE CLEARING IN THE WEST FIRST...WITH CLOUDS LINGERING
IN THE VALLEY AREAS UNTIL AROUND OR AFTER 00Z. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST AND REMAIN AND COULD
GUST TO AROUND 20KT NEAR KDVL THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK/JR
AVIATION...DK






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON OH

 1003 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DIG ACROSS OHIO AND
KENTUCKY TODAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SKIES WILL CLEAR
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA....BRINGING A CHANCE
OF FROST. A DRY SUNDAY IS EXPECTED WITH COOL TEMPERATURES
LINGERING. LOOKING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL...WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN MOVING BACK INTO THE AREA ON
MONDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES FROM CANADA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT HAS
PASSED SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER...AND IS MOVING OUT OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SEVERAL AREAS OF VERY LIGHT RADAR
ECHOES ACROSS THE CWA...BUT RAIN OBSERVATIONS AT AWOS/ASOS SITES
HAVE BEEN VERY ISOLATED.

AS AN UPPER TROUGH ROTATES SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION
TODAY...CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE...MAINLY AFTER
18Z. SLIGHT TIMING AND PLACEMENT ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO POPS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT STILL KEPT NO HIGHER THAN 30 PERCENT.
THIS MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED IF TRENDS SEEN ON RECENT RAP/HRRR
RUNS AND THE 12Z NAM APPEAR LIKELY TO VERIFY. THESE MODELS DEVELOP
A MORE CONSOLIDATED AREA OF PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN...MOVING SSE INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE ILN FORECAST
AREA. THE ROTATION OF THE VORTICITY MAXIMUM DRIVING THIS FORECAST
IS NOW STARTING TO COME INTO VIEW ON VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY...AND WILL BE A FEATURE TO WATCH THROUGH THE DAY.

A BAND OF BROKEN CLEARING HAS DEVELOPED FROM NORTHEAST INDIANA
THROUGH NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER MICHIGAN SUGGESTS THAT THIS WILL GRADUALLY
FILL IN AS MORE CLOUDS ADVECT FROM THE NORTH. HOWEVER...THERE ARE
INDICATIONS ON THE RAP THAT MOISTURE DOWNSTREAM FROM LOWER
MICHIGAN MAY BE SLIGHTLY LESS ENHANCED THAN MOISTURE IN AREAS WITH
A FETCH MORE DIRECTLY OFF OF THE GREAT LAKES.

THE PREVIOUS TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS STILL IN LINE WITH THE LATEST
MODEL TRENDS AND CURRENT CONDITIONS...SO NO CHANGES WERE MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION >
A FEW LIGHT ECHOS ARE DROPPING THE ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES EARLY
THIS MORNING. THESE ARE PROBABLY NO MORE THAN SPRINKLES ATTM. A
SHARP S/W TROF WILL SWING DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE FA
TODAY. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL INCREASE AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES...THUS SO WILL PCPN CHANCES. OVERALL THE BETTER CHANCE
OF PCPN WILL BE ACROSS THE NRN COUNTIES...BUT CANT RULE OUT A
SHOWER ANYWHERE.

EXPANSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOL TODAY...LIMITING
HIGHS TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE NORTH AND THE MID 50S ACROSS THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
BY 00Z THIS EVENING THE S/W TROF HAS SWUNG E OF THE FA...TO NEAR
THE OH/WV BORDER. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE TROF SHOULD ALLOW FOR
QUICK CLEARING OF LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT. SOME LAKE EFFECT SC OFF OF
LAKES MICHIGAN AND ERIE IS POSSIBLE...BUT EXPECT IT TO STAY NORTH
OF THE AREA. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SFC...WINDS WILL
LIGHTEN. COLDEST AIR ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION EARLY
TONIGHT...BUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD BE ABLE TO DECOUPLE
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NW 2/3RD OF THE FA TO DROP INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 30S. FROST SHOULD DEVELOP IN THIS REGIME...SO WILL
ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY NORTH OF A LINE FROM ABOUT CVG-ILN-LHQ.

EXPECT A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY WITH SFC HIGH OVER THE
REGION. NW FLOW ALOFT SHOULD BRING SOME CI. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLOW TO WARM DESPITE THE SUNSHINE...LEAVING HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 50S.

RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH WILL INCREASE MOISTURE
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. S/W ENERGY IN THE FAST FLOW ALOFT
WILL HELP PCPN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE N/W HALF OF THE FA SUNDAY NIGHT.

A CDFNT WILL ADVANCE ON THE REGION MONDAY HELPING TO FOCUS THE
LIFT. KEPT A HIGH CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN GFS/ECMWF IN THE OVERALL UPR PATTERN
AND THE ASSOC SFC FEATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED...ALTHOUGH SOME
CHANGES IN BOTH MODELS FROM YESTERDAY INCLUDE A DEEPER UPR LEVEL LOW
AND THEREFOR SLOWER TO DEPART THE REGION PRIOR TO THE DEEP RIDGING
DOMINATING THE CENTRAL/WESTERN CONUS IN THE LATTER PART OF THE
EXTENDED. HAVE LINGERED SHOWERS NOW THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY IN THE
EAST AS THE UPR LOW CONTINUES TO BECOME DEEPER WITH EACH MODEL RUN
AND WILL RESULT IN PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER IN THE EAST WELL INTO
WEDNESDAY. HAVE ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT LOWS UPWARD IN THE TUE NIGHT/WED
NIGHT TIMEFRAME ACCORDINGLY WITH THE DELAY IN POST FRONTAL CLEARING.

WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR UPDATES IN TEMPS/PRECIP/CLOUDS IN THE EAST
IF THE LOW CONTINUES TO SLOW/DEEPEN.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MVFR STRATOCU DECK WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING...SCATTERING
OUT IN THE 3-6Z TIME FRAME TONIGHT. CIGS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE
2-3KFT BUT WILL DROP BELOW THIS FOR A PERIOD OF TIME THIS
AFTERNOON IN SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT WILL OCCUR WITH THE
PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH...ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR WILL DROP CIGS BELOW 2KFT FOR
ANOTHER PERIOD OF TIME LATER THIS EVENING BEFORE THEY MIX OUT.
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 12-14KT WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES BUT NOT TOP
OUT MUCH PAST 22KT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH AND MIX OUT
CLOUDS AND LET WINDS SLACK IN THE LATE EVENING. FEW TO SCT CU WILL
OCCUR FOR SUNDAY.

.OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE MON NIGHT THROUGH TUES NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR OHZ026-034-
     035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>072-077-080.
KY...NONE.
IN...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR INZ050-058-
     059-066-073-074.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BINAU/SITES
NEAR TERM...HATZOS/SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...JDR
AVIATION...FRANKS






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SAN ANGELO TX

 622 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

IFR conditions have moved into the southern terminals this
morning, as a patchy stratus deck in the 500 to 1000 foot range
spreads northwest into the area. Based on satellite trends and
model data, these ceilings should persist into mid morning and
then break up and dissipate. All sites should see VFR conditions
by noon that should continue into the early morning hours on
Sunday. Models suggest that low clouds should being to move back
into the around sunrise Sunday morning.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Weak front has stalled and is dissipating just south of the I-10
corridor early this morning. Low cloud imagery showing low clouds
developing across the Hill Country, and spreading northwest towards
Junction and Mason. Latest RUC suggests that these low clouds will
spread into at least portions of West Central Texas and have
increased cloud cover across the Northwest Hill Country counties for
the morning hours. The low clouds are a sign of the increasing low
level moisture spreading back into the area, and this will keep
overnight lows up tonight. After lows in the low to mid 50s this
morning, lows tonight will be in the mid 50s to near 60 degrees
across the area.

LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)

An upper level low will be located across northern Mexico/southern
Arizona. This low will open up and approach West Texas late Sunday
into Monday. As this feature approaches West Central Texas, moisture
will be on the increase. Although the majority of convection will
remain west of our area, isolated showers and thunderstorms will be
possible, mainly west of Sterling City to Mason line. More of the
same is expected on Monday, with the best chance of precipitation
west of a Sterling City to Sonora line. Increased cloud cover will
result in near normal temperatures, with highs Sunday and Monday
generally in the mid 70s to near 80, and overnight lows in the 50s.

Models differences arise for the middle to latter part of next week.
The GFS and ECMWF begin to diverge around Wednesday in the handling
of an upper level trough forecast across the Plains. The GFS
progresses this trough east into the Mississippi Valley, with upper
level ridging building in behind it. The ECMWF has been consistent
in pinching off an upper level low, and slowly moving it south,
across West Central Texas, late Thursday through Saturday. The
forecast was trended closer to the more consistent ECMWF, with
increasing rain chances Wednesday night into Thursday. Uncertainty
remains in the PoP forecast this far out, but rain chances may
eventually need to be increased if the ECMWF solution becomes more
likely. Temperatures from the middle to latter part of the week will
be near normal. Highs will be in the mid 70s to near 80, with
overnight lows in the 50s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  78  55  77  58  80 /   5   0  10  10  10
San Angelo  81  57  77  56  78 /   5   5  20  10  10
Junction  83  60  79  59  80 /  10   5  20  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07/99/99







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

 641 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 237 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

OVERALL A VERY QUIET WEEK SETTING UP ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. 18.00Z GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
23.00Z...DIVERGING THEREAFTER WITH THE SPEED AND LOCATION OF A MID-
WEEK EASTERN PACIFIC SHORT-WAVE. WILL USE A BLENDED MODEL SOLUTION
FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

FOR TODAY...THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
WILL MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND ALLOWING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY MID-
LATE AFTERNOON. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW
TO DISSIPATE THIS MORNING...BUT BOTH THE RAP AND HRRR HIGH
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SHOW CLEARING SKIES BY LATE AFTERNOON. AS A
RESULT...DELAYED CLEARING IN THE SKY GRIDS THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS BY 19.00Z. TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.

SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES QUICKLY TO THE EAST. DESPITE CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND WITH NEAR SURFACE WINDS FROM 10 TO
15 KTS...DO NOT EXPECT SIGNIFICANT VALLEY FOG FORMATION. LACK OF
CLOUD COVER AND OVERALL DRY AIR MASS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

500 TO 300 HPA PV ADVECTION INCREASES ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORT-WAVE. MOISTURE RATHER LIMITED ALONG MID-
LEVEL WARM FRONT WITH BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FARTHER NORTH
CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW RIDING ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION ACROSS TAYLOR/CLARK COUNTIES...
BUT EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY...
BUT WITH INCREASING THERMAL PROFILE...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO
THE UPPER 5OS TO LOWER 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE BY
AFTERNOON...GUSTING AT TIMES TO 25 MPH.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS SLOWLY ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. RIDGE AXIS
CUTS RIGHT DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 21.12Z (TUESDAY
MORNING)...SO FOG POTENTIAL IS HIGHER...BUT CERTAINTY NOT GREAT
ENOUGH TO MENTION IN CURRENT FORECAST. LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY VARIATION
IN TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN
THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

BY THURSDAY...THE ECMWF RAPIDLY BREAKS DOWN THE 500 HPA RIDGE
ALLOWING THE NEXT SHORT-WAVE TO CRUISE ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING
A QUICK SHOT OF RAIN. THE GFS...HOWEVER MAINTAINS THE RIDGE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...SLOWING THE WAVE/S EASTWARD PROGRESS AND
KEEPING RAIN WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT. THE
GFS SOLUTION ALSO WEAKENS THE WAVE RESULTING IN LESS RAINFALL. FOR
NOW...WILL KEEP LOW-END POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. HEIGHTS RISE THURSDAY...ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO REACH BACK INTO THE LOWER 60S. BY FRIDAY...
850 HPA TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM +12 TO +15 C WHICH SHOULD RESULT
IN SURFACE VALUES INTO THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 641 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

A TROUGH IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN
EARLY THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE THE TAF SITES WILL REMAIN DRY.
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON AND THEN SCATTER OUT. THIS SHOULD OCCUR AROUND 18.19Z AT
KRST AND 18.21Z AT KLSE. NORTHWEST WIND REMAIN GENERALLY LESS THAN
10 KNOTS THIS MORNING...AND THEN THE WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. OVERNIGHT THE
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE INTO THE 5 TO 10 KNOT
RANGE.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS
AVIATION...BOYNE





AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA

 204 PM PDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY BEFORE A
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA MONDAY. LOW CLOUDS
AND PATCHY FOG WILL RETURN TO THE COAST AND VALLEYS TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY. LOOK FOR A CHANCE OF RAIN MONDAY ESPECIALLY FROM THE
SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS NORTHWARD. THIS WEAK SYSTEM SHOULD BE FAST
MOVING WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING BY MIDWEEK. WARMER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 01:34 PM PDT SATURDAY...BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
HAS TURNED ONSHORE AND PATCHY LOW CLOUDS OFF THE COAST SHOULD
BEGIN TO FILL IN NEAR THE COAST AFTER DARK AS THE AIRMASS COOLS.
STRATUS WILL DEVELOP AND SPREAD INLAND TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING
PER HRRR AND NAM GUIDANCE AS A SHORT WAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
AREA. THE ALREADY HIGH DEW POINTS SUPPORT THE HRRR AND NAM
SOLUTIONS.

THE MARINE LAYER HAS MIXED OUT TODAY...BUT WILL REDEVELOP WEAKLY
AND SHOULD BE VARIABLE BETWEEN 1000 AND 2000 FEET TONIGHT. SHOULD
HAVE A DEEPER MARINE LAYER TO THE NORTH WITH FASTER RETURN OF
STRATUS OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST AND INTO
THE SALINAS VALLEY LATER TONIGHT WITH SOME LOCAL DRIZZLE.

STRATUS SHOULD BE SLOW TO CLEAR FROM THE BAY AREA AND SURROUNDINGS
SUNDAY WITH A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND WEAK ONSHORE FLOW. MAY
ACTUALLY SEE MORE SUNSHINE IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA THAN THE NORTH.

STRATUS WILL PUSH WELL INLAND SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE MARINE LAYER
WILL DEEPEN AND MIX OUT BY MONDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE COAST. BEST CHANCE FOR COASTAL DRIZZLE OCCURS
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW.

GFS AND NAM IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT SHOWING A FAST MOVING POTENT
VORT MAX WITH PV TROF THAT SHOULD HOLD THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TOGETHER AT LEAST INTO THE NORTH BAY. FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE BAY
AREA EXPECTED TOWARD MIDDAY MONDAY...THEN THE BOUNDARY WEAKENS
RAPIDLY AS UPPER SUPPORT SHEARS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. RAINFALL
WILL BE GREATEST IN THE NORTH BAY AND TAPER RAPIDLY TO THE SOUTH.
THIS APPEARS TO BE ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM...BUT HAS ENOUGH DYNAMICS
TO SQUEEZE OUT A LITTLE PRECIPITATION.

A COOL AND FAIRLY MOIST WELL MIXED AIRMASS WILL RESIDE OVER THE
AREA TUESDAY AS THE TROF MOVES INLAND. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE INTERIOR WEST FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND
EXPECT A WARMING AND DRYING TREND FOR THE CENTRAL COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:30 AM PDT SATURDAY...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS
(UNDER 12 KT) EXPECTED TODAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS. LOW CLOUDS
REFORMING OVER THE COAST AND MOVING INLAND OVERNIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR THROUGH THE DAY. 270 TO 290 WINDS ABOVE 10
KT AT TIMES FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MVFR CIGS AFTER 10Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR THROUGH THE DAY WITH WINDS
GENERALLY UNDER 10 KT. MVFR EXPECTED TO RETURN AROUND 04Z
TONIGHT...IFR CIGS BY 12Z SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:24 AM PDT SATURDAY...WINDS WILL SWITCH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY BY THE EVENING. ANOTHER FRONT WILL ARRIVE MONDAY
WITH WINDS SWITCHING BACK TO SOUTHERLY BY SUNDAY NIGHT. A LARGE
NORTHWESTERLY SWELL GENERATED BY A STORM IN THE GULF OF ALASKA
WILL ARRIVE AT THE COAST LATE SUNDAY WITH LONG PERIOD FORERUNNERS
ARRIVING SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE LARGER WAVES ARRIVING MONDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: KBB
AVIATION/MARINE: SIMS

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO

 1052 AM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1050 AM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

SATELLITE LOOP SHOWED AN UPPER LOW MOVING INTO NERN NM THIS
MORNING WHILE A PACIFIC TROUGH WAS IN THE PROCESS OF SPLITTING AS
IT APPROACHES THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN. RATHER EXTENSIVE MID-LEVEL
CLOUD DECK ACROSS ERN UT/SWRN CO APPEARS ASSOCIATED WITH A SMALL
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO SERN UT PER 500 MB VORTICITY FIELD. HI-
RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUE TO FOCUS SOME PRECIPITATION ON THE SAN
JUAN MTNS THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE 16Z SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWED LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPENING THE QUICKEST. CURRENT FORECAST HAS
THIS IN HAND. WILL TWEAK THE FORECAST SKY GRIDS TO BOOST CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

IR SATELLITE SHOWING PLENTY OF CLOUDS FOR MAINLY SOUTHERN AREAS OF
THE CWA THIS MORNING WITH SOME LIGHT RETURNS SHOWING UP ON RADAR.
THESE CLOUDS ARE IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK WAVE THAT IS CURRENTLY
MOVING ACROSS CO AND NEW MEXICO. BY DAYBREAK THE WAVE WILL SHIFT
TO ERN CO WHILE ANOTHER WEAK WAVE TAKES AIM FOR AREAS SOUTH. HRRR
AND RAP NOT SHOWING MUCH PRECIP UNTIL THIS AFTN WITH NAM12
FOLLOWING SUIT. KEPT VERY ISOLD POPS OVER HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF
SAN JUANS WITH COVERAGE INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY REACHING THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS FROM NOON ONWARDS. LAPSE RATES STEEPEN SOMEWHAT
THIS AFTERNOON WITH CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY ALSO INCREASING A BIT
SO INCLUDED ISOLD STORMS THOUGH THEY SHOULD BE FEW AND FAR
BETWEEN. THOSE AREAS AWAY FROM ANY CONVECTION WILL SEE SOME MID TO
HIGH CLOUDS AS TEMPS CONTINUE TO RUN WARM.

A PSEUDO-REX BLOCK WILL BE SETTING UP TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH
THE LOW OVER THE BAJA REGION TRAPPED UNDER AN AMPLIFYING NORTHERN
ROCKIES RIDGE. THIS RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE NORTH CENTRAL STATES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE LEFT
AND RIGHT COASTLINES OF NOAM. A SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT TO THE
SOUTHERN FLOW PATTERN OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST APPEARS TO TAP
INTO MOISTURE ORIGINATING IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. 305K
THETA SURFACES SHOW A DECENT WARM CONVEYOR BELT ASCENDING OUT OF
WEST TEXAS TOWARD THE 4 CORNERS OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE BULK
OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE UTILIZED TO OUR SOUTH WHERE THE MAIN
SOURCE OF ASCENT WILL BE PRESENT. FARTHER NORTH...OROGRAPHICS AND
MARGINAL CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY WILL BE KEEPING SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOCUSED OVER OUR SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS. A
STRAY SHOWER MAY SURVIVE INTO THE VALLEY BUT UPPER WINDS ARE NOT
ENTIRELY FAVORABLE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE STUCK IN A RUT AND
PERSISTENCE STILL SEEMS THE WAY TO GO.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

A STRONGER POLAR JET WILL BE DESCENDING THE HIGH LATITUDES TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST STATES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS FORCES THE REX
PATTERN EVER SO SLOWLY TO THE EAST AS STRONG BLOCKING PERSISTS IN
THE EAST. FORCING REMAIN MINIMAL AND SO LOW POPS STUCK TO THE
TERRAIN IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COLORADO MOUNTAINS HIGHLIGHT
THE FORECAST AS TEMPERATURE TRENDS REMAIN STATIC.

UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE LIFTING OUT OF OUR REGION TUESDAY AND
AS IT DOES SO...WEAKENING DIVERGENCE WILL LEND ITSELF TO SOME SPOTTY
PRECIP FOR MAINLY HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE CWA. QUICK ON THE
HEELS OF THIS WAVE IS A STRONG JET THAT WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE AND MORE PRECIP WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. MODELS NOT SHOWING MUCH OF A BREAK BETWEEN THESE TWO WAVES
SO EXPECT UNSETTLED WX FOR MOST OF TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AFTER
THAT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND PERSISTS THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD. DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE RESULT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1050 AM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

AN UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS NRN NM AND A PACIFIC TROUGH MOVING INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN WILL RESULT IN A FAIRLY EXTENSIVE MID-LEVEL
CLOUD DECK ACROSS ERN UT AND THE SRN TWO-THIRDS OF WRN CO THROUGH
THIS EVENING. WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD LEAD TO ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS
MAINLY OVER THE SAN JUAN MTNS BUT A FEW COULD REACH AS FAR NORTH AS
GRAND MESA AND THE ELK MTNS. ISOLD TS POSSIBLE OVER THE SAN JUANS
THIS AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH BY 06Z TONIGHT.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAD
SHORT TERM...TGR/15
LONG TERM...15/TGR
AVIATION...JAD



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

 243 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
958 AM CDT

FOR MORNING UPDATE...

INCREASED POPS MARKEDLY ACROSS NORTHEAST IL AND NORTHWEST INDIANA
THROUGH REMAINDER OF THE MORNING HOURS...WITH SOLID AREA OF RAIN
MOVING SOUTHWARD OUT OF SOUTHEASTERN WISCONSIN IN ASSOCIATION WITH
DEEP MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT IS DIGGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. RAPID-REFRESH (HRRR) SEEMS TO HAVE A DECENT
HANDLE ON THIS AREA OF RAIN...WITH THE HRRR AND TIMING OF TRAILING
EDGE OF PRECIP FROM RADAR SUGGESTING RAIN WILL END ACROSS CHICAGO
AREA AROUND NOON...AND DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON FARTHER SOUTHEAST.

SOME LAKE EFFECT SPRINKLES WILL LIKELY LINGER ACROSS NORTHWEST
INDIANA FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT
A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LOWERING BEHIND THIS
RATHER STOUT WAVE THIS AFTERNOON SIGNIFICANTLY LIMITING CLOUD DEPTH
LATER ON. THIS IS ALSO EXPECTED TO HELP OPEN UP MORE HOLES IN
EXTENSIVE STRATOCU SHIELD UPSTREAM ACROSS WI...THOUGH WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR SATELLITE TRENDS AS OUR CURRENT FORECAST INDICATES LESS
CLOUD COVER BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. IF CLOUD COVER REMAINS MORE
EXTENSIVE MAY HAVE TO REVISIT HIGH TEMPS TOO...WITH COOL ADVECTION
CURRENTLY FEEDING AIR IN FROM WISCONSIN WHICH HAS TEMPS ONLY IN THE
LOW-MID 40S.

RATZER

//PREV DISCUSSION...
323 AM CDT

WITH 12 OF THE 17 DAYS SO FAR THIS MONTH WITH PRECIPITATION
/INCLUDING ONE WITH A LITTLE SNOW/...WE REMAIN IN THAT SAME THEME
WITH CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO KICK OFF THE WEEKEND THIS
MORNING AND THEN TO END IT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THAT ALONG
WITH AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND INFLUENCE ON TEMPERATURES THIS
WEEKEND WERE THE MAIN EMPHASIS IN THIS FORECAST.

.TODAY...
THE TWO UPPER LOWS THAT BROUGHT PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER TO THE LOCAL
AREA OVER THIS PAST WEEK HAVE MERGED AS A BROADER UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES. CHARGING DOWN THE
BACK/WEST SIDE OF THIS TROUGH IS A SHARPLY DEFINED VORTICITY
MAXIMUM OVER WESTERN WI EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS IS BRINGING A
FAIRLY FOCUSED AREA OF ASCENT AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES OF
7-8C/KM IN THE 700-550MB LAYER. RADAR MOSAIC INDICATES SWATHS OF
MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS IN CENTRAL/NORTHERN WI AND HIGH-RES GUIDANCE
HAS TRENDED UPWARD THE PAST FEW HOURS IN KEEPING THIS INTACT
ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH SATELLITE TRENDS SUPPORT. WITH A VERY
TRACKABLE FEATURE SUCH AS THIS /ALMOST REMINISCENT OF THE CLIPPERS
OF LAST WINTER/...HAVE TIMED THIS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING WITH ANY ONE PLACE IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST
INDIANA HAVING AN APPROXIMATELY 3 HOUR WINDOW OF SOME OFF AND ON
LIGHT RAIN. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS PORTER COUNTY WHICH LOOKS TO
REMAIN UNDER A LAKE EFFECT FETCH WITH HIGH ENOUGH INVERSION LEVELS
OF 8000 FT TO SUPPORT PERSISTENT SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY-MID
AFTERNOON.

THIS MID-LEVEL WAVE THIS MORNING EVEN HAS A SURFACE REFLECTION WHICH
BASICALLY IS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL ESTABLISH THE CLOUDS THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY
AS WELL AS KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM CLIMBING THIS MORNING. FORECAST
HIGHS ARE 8 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW MID-OCTOBER NORMALS. THE CLOUDS
WILL PROBABLY HANG TO NEAR SUNDOWN FOR THE EASTERN FORECAST
AREA...WITH AREAS OF NORTHWEST INDIANA LIKELY TO REMAIN UNDER LAKE
CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE EVENING AND POSSIBLY ALL NIGHT.

.TONIGHT...
WHILE THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES FOR WHEN LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS SCATTER
IN FAR NORTHWEST INDIANA...THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD
SEE FAIRLY DRAMATIC CLEARING LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVE. CLEARING GOING INTO THE NIGHT WITH A 1023MB HIGH SETTLING
OVERHEAD OFFERS THE BEST POTENTIAL SO FAR FOR A WIDESPREAD FROST.
HAVE COLLABORATED WITH NEIGHBORING NWS OFFICES AND ISSUED A FROST
ADVISORY. WILL GO AHEAD AND INCLUDE COOK COUNTY TOO BUT THAT WILL
BE FOR MAINLY OUTLYING AREAS. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS PROBABLE FOR AT
LEAST PATCHY LOCATIONS IN NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS TO DIP TO OR
BELOW FREEZING...SO WITHIN THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES AN UPGRADE
TO A FREEZE WARNING WOULD BE NEEDED TODAY.

.SUNDAY AND MONDAY...
WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ONE MORE SYSTEM IN THIS CURRENT WAVE TRAIN
IS FORECAST TO DROP THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE
WARM SECTOR PART OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE AREA
DURING SUNDAY...A PATTERN SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AND SIMILARLY WE
SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.
THIS ALONG WITH THE COOL STARTING POINT LOOK TO KEEP TEMPS DOWN
FROM WHAT THE 850-925MB CLIMATOLOGICALLY WOULD YIELD. HAVE HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. THE AIR LOOKS DRY AT FIRST BUT DURING
SUNDAY NIGHT THERE IS A LITTLE BETTER POTENTIAL TO RATTLE OUT
SOME LIGHT RAIN THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS INDICATED. WINDS AND
CLOUD SHOULD KEEP SUNDAY NIGHT TEMPS FROM DROPPING MUCH.

THE SYSTEM COLD FRONT PASSES DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH CONTINUED
SCATTERED SHOWER CHANCES. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDS AND IT LOOKS LIKE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS INTO NORTHWEST
INDIANA AND POSSIBLY EVEN FAR NORTHEAST ILLINOIS DEPENDING ON HOW
VEERED THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS.

.NEXT WEEK...
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST LOOKS FAIRLY QUIET AS THE AMPLIFIED
PATTERN CONTINUES BUT WE GET UNDER A SLOWING UPPER RIDGE DURING THIS
TIME. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO GRADUALLY MODERATE IN THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK WITH CERTAINLY THE POSSIBILITY TO WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL
GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN FORECAST BY MOST OF THE LONG RANGE
MODELS.

MTF

&&

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...

* MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THRU 22Z...THEN STEADILY LIFT TOWARDS
  VFR CONDS ARND SUNSET.

* NORTH WINDS UP TO 10KT...THEN FURTHER DIMINISHING TO NEAR CALM
  CONDS OVERNIGHT.

BEACHLER

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...

VISIBLE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER ACROSS
THE REGION...WITH MOST CIGS ARND 2300-2800FT AGL. SOME DRY AIR IS
BEGINNING TO WORK INTO SOUTHERN WISC AND WILL EVENTUALLY ARRIVE
ACROSS NORTHERN IL AND HELP TO START BREAKING UP THE OVC CONDS
INTO A BKN DECK ARND 22Z AND ALSO LIFT CIG BASES UP TO ARND
3500-4000FT AGL. THE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO SLACKEN LATER THIS
EVENING...AS ADDTL DRY AIR FURTHER SCOURS THE CLOUDS. EXPECT NEAR
CALM CONDS TO DEVELOP BY 8Z SUN AND MINIMAL CLOUD COVER. WINDS
ARND DAYBREAK SUN BEGIN TO TURN SOUTHWEST WITH SOME GUSTS
DEVELOPING BY MIDDAY SUN TO ARND 16KT.

BEACHLER

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR/SPEED.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS STEADILY IMPROVING TO VFR CONDS
  LATER THIS EVE. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN PRECISE TIMING OF CIGS
  LIFTING TO VFR.

BEACHLER

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

* SUNDAY NIGHT...CHANCE OF SHRA.
* MONDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA. WEST WINDS BECOMING NORTH.
* TUESDAY...DRY/VFR. NORTHEAST WINDS.
* WEDNESDAY...DRY/VFR. EAST WINDS.
* THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DRY/VFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
111 PM CDT

IN THE NEAR TERM...HAVE ALLOWED GALE WARNING FOR THE LAKE MICHIGAN
OPEN WATERS TO EXPIRE AT 1 PM CDT...AS ISALLOBARIC (PRESSURE CHANGE)
GRADIENT HAS WEAKENED AND OBSERVED GUSTS HAVE EASED INTO THE 25-30
KT RANGE OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.

THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON
AND THEN MORE QUICKLY THIS EVENING/TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE FROM
WESTERN ONTARIO TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS MOVES STEADILY EAST-SOUTHEAST
TO THE WESTERN LAKES AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS
WILL RESULT IN 30 KT NORTH WINDS DIMINISHING QUICKLY THIS EVENING...
AND BACKING TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST BY MORNING AS THE SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS PASSES. CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HEADLINES FOR THE IL
NEARSHORE WATERS WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 4 AM CDT...WITH THE
IN WATERS CONTINUING THROUGH 10 AM CDT SUNDAY MORNING AS WAVES
SLOWLY SUBSIDE AFTER THIS PERIOD OF STRONG NORTHERLY FETCH.

LIGHT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE SHORT
LIVED HOWEVER...AS THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE CURRENT WEATHER
PATTERN CONTINUES WITH ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPING OVER CANADA AND MOVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PICK UP INTO THE 20-25 KT RANGE PERHAPS WITH A
FEW GUSTS TO 30 KT AGAIN SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF THIS LOW AND TRAILING
COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
WINDS SHIFT NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH A PERIOD OF 25 KTS LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS ANOTHER HIGH SPREADS ACROSS ONTARIO AND
EVENTUALLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

RATZER

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...FROST ADVISORY...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-
     ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022-
     ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039...3 AM SUNDAY TO 8 AM SUNDAY.

IN...FROST ADVISORY...INZ019...3 AM SUNDAY TO 8 AM SUNDAY.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 4 AM SUNDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 10 AM SUNDAY.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

 111 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
958 AM CDT

FOR MORNING UPDATE...

INCREASED POPS MARKEDLY ACROSS NORTHEAST IL AND NORTHWEST INDIANA
THROUGH REMAINDER OF THE MORNING HOURS...WITH SOLID AREA OF RAIN
MOVING SOUTHWARD OUT OF SOUTHEASTERN WISCONSIN IN ASSOCIATION WITH
DEEP MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT IS DIGGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. RAPID-REFRESH (HRRR) SEEMS TO HAVE A DECENT
HANDLE ON THIS AREA OF RAIN...WITH THE HRRR AND TIMING OF TRAILING
EDGE OF PRECIP FROM RADAR SUGGESTING RAIN WILL END ACROSS CHICAGO
AREA AROUND NOON...AND DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON FARTHER SOUTHEAST.

SOME LAKE EFFECT SPRINKLES WILL LIKELY LINGER ACROSS NORTHWEST
INDIANA FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT
A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LOWERING BEHIND THIS
RATHER STOUT WAVE THIS AFTERNOON SIGNIFICANTLY LIMITING CLOUD DEPTH
LATER ON. THIS IS ALSO EXPECTED TO HELP OPEN UP MORE HOLES IN
EXTENSIVE STRATOCU SHIELD UPSTREAM ACROSS WI...THOUGH WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR SATELLITE TRENDS AS OUR CURRENT FORECAST INDICATES LESS
CLOUD COVER BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. IF CLOUD COVER REMAINS MORE
EXTENSIVE MAY HAVE TO REVISIT HIGH TEMPS TOO...WITH COOL ADVECTION
CURRENTLY FEEDING AIR IN FROM WISCONSIN WHICH HAS TEMPS ONLY IN THE
LOW-MID 40S.

RATZER

//PREV DISCUSSION...
323 AM CDT

WITH 12 OF THE 17 DAYS SO FAR THIS MONTH WITH PRECIPITATION
/INCLUDING ONE WITH A LITTLE SNOW/...WE REMAIN IN THAT SAME THEME
WITH CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO KICK OFF THE WEEKEND THIS
MORNING AND THEN TO END IT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THAT ALONG
WITH AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND INFLUENCE ON TEMPERATURES THIS
WEEKEND WERE THE MAIN EMPHASIS IN THIS FORECAST.

.TODAY...
THE TWO UPPER LOWS THAT BROUGHT PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER TO THE LOCAL
AREA OVER THIS PAST WEEK HAVE MERGED AS A BROADER UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES. CHARGING DOWN THE
BACK/WEST SIDE OF THIS TROUGH IS A SHARPLY DEFINED VORTICITY
MAXIMUM OVER WESTERN WI EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS IS BRINGING A
FAIRLY FOCUSED AREA OF ASCENT AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES OF
7-8C/KM IN THE 700-550MB LAYER. RADAR MOSAIC INDICATES SWATHS OF
MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS IN CENTRAL/NORTHERN WI AND HIGH-RES GUIDANCE
HAS TRENDED UPWARD THE PAST FEW HOURS IN KEEPING THIS INTACT
ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH SATELLITE TRENDS SUPPORT. WITH A VERY
TRACKABLE FEATURE SUCH AS THIS /ALMOST REMINISCENT OF THE CLIPPERS
OF LAST WINTER/...HAVE TIMED THIS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING WITH ANY ONE PLACE IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST
INDIANA HAVING AN APPROXIMATELY 3 HOUR WINDOW OF SOME OFF AND ON
LIGHT RAIN. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS PORTER COUNTY WHICH LOOKS TO
REMAIN UNDER A LAKE EFFECT FETCH WITH HIGH ENOUGH INVERSION LEVELS
OF 8000 FT TO SUPPORT PERSISTENT SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY-MID
AFTERNOON.

THIS MID-LEVEL WAVE THIS MORNING EVEN HAS A SURFACE REFLECTION WHICH
BASICALLY IS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL ESTABLISH THE CLOUDS THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY
AS WELL AS KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM CLIMBING THIS MORNING. FORECAST
HIGHS ARE 8 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW MID-OCTOBER NORMALS. THE CLOUDS
WILL PROBABLY HANG TO NEAR SUNDOWN FOR THE EASTERN FORECAST
AREA...WITH AREAS OF NORTHWEST INDIANA LIKELY TO REMAIN UNDER LAKE
CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE EVENING AND POSSIBLY ALL NIGHT.

.TONIGHT...
WHILE THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES FOR WHEN LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS SCATTER
IN FAR NORTHWEST INDIANA...THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD
SEE FAIRLY DRAMATIC CLEARING LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVE. CLEARING GOING INTO THE NIGHT WITH A 1023MB HIGH SETTLING
OVERHEAD OFFERS THE BEST POTENTIAL SO FAR FOR A WIDESPREAD FROST.
HAVE COLLABORATED WITH NEIGHBORING NWS OFFICES AND ISSUED A FROST
ADVISORY. WILL GO AHEAD AND INCLUDE COOK COUNTY TOO BUT THAT WILL
BE FOR MAINLY OUTLYING AREAS. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS PROBABLE FOR AT
LEAST PATCHY LOCATIONS IN NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS TO DIP TO OR
BELOW FREEZING...SO WITHIN THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES AN UPGRADE
TO A FREEZE WARNING WOULD BE NEEDED TODAY.

.SUNDAY AND MONDAY...
WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ONE MORE SYSTEM IN THIS CURRENT WAVE TRAIN
IS FORECAST TO DROP THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE
WARM SECTOR PART OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE AREA
DURING SUNDAY...A PATTERN SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AND SIMILARLY WE
SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.
THIS ALONG WITH THE COOL STARTING POINT LOOK TO KEEP TEMPS DOWN
FROM WHAT THE 850-925MB CLIMATOLOGICALLY WOULD YIELD. HAVE HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. THE AIR LOOKS DRY AT FIRST BUT DURING
SUNDAY NIGHT THERE IS A LITTLE BETTER POTENTIAL TO RATTLE OUT
SOME LIGHT RAIN THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS INDICATED. WINDS AND
CLOUD SHOULD KEEP SUNDAY NIGHT TEMPS FROM DROPPING MUCH.

THE SYSTEM COLD FRONT PASSES DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH CONTINUED
SCATTERED SHOWER CHANCES. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDS AND IT LOOKS LIKE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS INTO NORTHWEST
INDIANA AND POSSIBLY EVEN FAR NORTHEAST ILLINOIS DEPENDING ON HOW
VEERED THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS.

.NEXT WEEK...
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST LOOKS FAIRLY QUIET AS THE AMPLIFIED
PATTERN CONTINUES BUT WE GET UNDER A SLOWING UPPER RIDGE DURING THIS
TIME. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO GRADUALLY MODERATE IN THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK WITH CERTAINLY THE POSSIBILITY TO WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL
GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN FORECAST BY MOST OF THE LONG RANGE
MODELS.

MTF

&&

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...

* MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THRU 22Z...THEN STEADILY LIFT TOWARDS
  VFR CONDS ARND SUNSET.

* NORTH WINDS UP TO 12KT AND GUSTS TO 17KT...DIMINISHING TO ARND
  10KT BY 22Z. THEN FURTHER DIMINISHING TO NEAR CALM CONDS
  OVERNIGHT.

BEACHLER

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...

VISIBLE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER ACROSS
THE REGION...WITH MOST CIGS ARND 2300-2800FT AGL. SOME DRY AIR IS
BEGINNING TO WORK INTO SOUTHERN WISC AND WILL EVENTUALLY ARRIVE
ACROSS NORTHERN IL AND HELP TO START BREAKING UP THE OVC CONDS
INTO A BKN DECK ARND 22Z AND ALSO LIFT CIG BASES UP TO ARND
3500-4000FT AGL. THE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO SLACKEN LATER THIS
EVENING...AS ADDTL DRY AIR FURTHER SCOURS THE CLOUDS. EXPECT NEAR
CALM CONDS TO DEVELOP BY 8Z SUN AND MINIMAL CLOUD COVER. WINDS
ARND DAYBREAK SUN BEGIN TO TURN SOUTHWEST WITH SOME GUSTS
DEVELOPING BY MIDDAY SUN TO ARND 16KT.

BEACHLER

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR/SPEED.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS STEADILY IMPROVING TO VFR CONDS
  LATER THIS EVE. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN PRECISE TIMING OF CIGS
  LIFTING TO VFR.

BEACHLER

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

* SUNDAY NIGHT...CHANCE OF SHRA.
* MONDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA. WEST WINDS BECOMING NORTH.
* TUESDAY...DRY/VFR. NORTHEAST WINDS.
* WEDNESDAY...DRY/VFR. EAST WINDS.
* THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DRY/VFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
111 PM CDT

IN THE NEAR TERM...HAVE ALLOWED GALE WARNING FOR THE LAKE MICHIGAN
OPEN WATERS TO EXPIRE AT 1 PM CDT...AS ISALLOBARIC (PRESSURE CHANGE)
GRADIENT HAS WEAKENED AND OBSERVED GUSTS HAVE EASED INTO THE 25-30
KT RANGE OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.

THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON
AND THEN MORE QUICKLY THIS EVENING/TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE FROM
WESTERN ONTARIO TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS MOVES STEADILY EAST-SOUTHEAST
TO THE WESTERN LAKES AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS
WILL RESULT IN 30 KT NORTH WINDS DIMINISHING QUICKLY THIS EVENING...
AND BACKING TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST BY MORNING AS THE SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS PASSES. CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HEADLINES FOR THE IL
NEARSHORE WATERS WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 4 AM CDT...WITH THE
IN WATERS CONTINUING THROUGH 10 AM CDT SUNDAY MORNING AS WAVES
SLOWLY SUBSIDE AFTER THIS PERIOD OF STRONG NORTHERLY FETCH.

LIGHT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE SHORT
LIVED HOWEVER...AS THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE CURRENT WEATHER
PATTERN CONTINUES WITH ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPING OVER CANADA AND MOVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PICK UP INTO THE 20-25 KT RANGE PERHAPS WITH A
FEW GUSTS TO 30 KT AGAIN SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF THIS LOW AND TRAILING
COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
WINDS SHIFT NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH A PERIOD OF 25 KTS LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS ANOTHER HIGH SPREADS ACROSS ONTARIO AND
EVENTUALLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

RATZER

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...FROST ADVISORY...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-
     ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022-
     ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039...3 AM SUNDAY TO 8 AM SUNDAY.

IN...FROST ADVISORY...INZ019...3 AM SUNDAY TO 8 AM SUNDAY.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 4 AM SUNDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 10 AM SUNDAY.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

 107 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
958 AM CDT

FOR MORNING UPDATE...

INCREASED POPS MARKEDLY ACROSS NORTHEAST IL AND NORTHWEST INDIANA
THROUGH REMAINDER OF THE MORNING HOURS...WITH SOLID AREA OF RAIN
MOVING SOUTHWARD OUT OF SOUTHEASTERN WISCONSIN IN ASSOCIATION WITH
DEEP MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT IS DIGGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. RAPID-REFRESH (HRRR) SEEMS TO HAVE A DECENT
HANDLE ON THIS AREA OF RAIN...WITH THE HRRR AND TIMING OF TRAILING
EDGE OF PRECIP FROM RADAR SUGGESTING RAIN WILL END ACROSS CHICAGO
AREA AROUND NOON...AND DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON FARTHER SOUTHEAST.

SOME LAKE EFFECT SPRINKLES WILL LIKELY LINGER ACROSS NORTHWEST
INDIANA FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT
A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LOWERING BEHIND THIS
RATHER STOUT WAVE THIS AFTERNOON SIGNIFICANTLY LIMITING CLOUD DEPTH
LATER ON. THIS IS ALSO EXPECTED TO HELP OPEN UP MORE HOLES IN
EXTENSIVE STRATOCU SHIELD UPSTREAM ACROSS WI...THOUGH WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR SATELLITE TRENDS AS OUR CURRENT FORECAST INDICATES LESS
CLOUD COVER BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. IF CLOUD COVER REMAINS MORE
EXTENSIVE MAY HAVE TO REVISIT HIGH TEMPS TOO...WITH COOL ADVECTION
CURRENTLY FEEDING AIR IN FROM WISCONSIN WHICH HAS TEMPS ONLY IN THE
LOW-MID 40S.

RATZER

//PREV DISCUSSION...
323 AM CDT

WITH 12 OF THE 17 DAYS SO FAR THIS MONTH WITH PRECIPITATION
/INCLUDING ONE WITH A LITTLE SNOW/...WE REMAIN IN THAT SAME THEME
WITH CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO KICK OFF THE WEEKEND THIS
MORNING AND THEN TO END IT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THAT ALONG
WITH AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND INFLUENCE ON TEMPERATURES THIS
WEEKEND WERE THE MAIN EMPHASIS IN THIS FORECAST.

.TODAY...
THE TWO UPPER LOWS THAT BROUGHT PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER TO THE LOCAL
AREA OVER THIS PAST WEEK HAVE MERGED AS A BROADER UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES. CHARGING DOWN THE
BACK/WEST SIDE OF THIS TROUGH IS A SHARPLY DEFINED VORTICITY
MAXIMUM OVER WESTERN WI EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS IS BRINGING A
FAIRLY FOCUSED AREA OF ASCENT AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES OF
7-8C/KM IN THE 700-550MB LAYER. RADAR MOSAIC INDICATES SWATHS OF
MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS IN CENTRAL/NORTHERN WI AND HIGH-RES GUIDANCE
HAS TRENDED UPWARD THE PAST FEW HOURS IN KEEPING THIS INTACT
ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH SATELLITE TRENDS SUPPORT. WITH A VERY
TRACKABLE FEATURE SUCH AS THIS /ALMOST REMINISCENT OF THE CLIPPERS
OF LAST WINTER/...HAVE TIMED THIS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING WITH ANY ONE PLACE IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST
INDIANA HAVING AN APPROXIMATELY 3 HOUR WINDOW OF SOME OFF AND ON
LIGHT RAIN. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS PORTER COUNTY WHICH LOOKS TO
REMAIN UNDER A LAKE EFFECT FETCH WITH HIGH ENOUGH INVERSION LEVELS
OF 8000 FT TO SUPPORT PERSISTENT SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY-MID
AFTERNOON.

THIS MID-LEVEL WAVE THIS MORNING EVEN HAS A SURFACE REFLECTION WHICH
BASICALLY IS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL ESTABLISH THE CLOUDS THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY
AS WELL AS KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM CLIMBING THIS MORNING. FORECAST
HIGHS ARE 8 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW MID-OCTOBER NORMALS. THE CLOUDS
WILL PROBABLY HANG TO NEAR SUNDOWN FOR THE EASTERN FORECAST
AREA...WITH AREAS OF NORTHWEST INDIANA LIKELY TO REMAIN UNDER LAKE
CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE EVENING AND POSSIBLY ALL NIGHT.

.TONIGHT...
WHILE THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES FOR WHEN LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS SCATTER
IN FAR NORTHWEST INDIANA...THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD
SEE FAIRLY DRAMATIC CLEARING LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVE. CLEARING GOING INTO THE NIGHT WITH A 1023MB HIGH SETTLING
OVERHEAD OFFERS THE BEST POTENTIAL SO FAR FOR A WIDESPREAD FROST.
HAVE COLLABORATED WITH NEIGHBORING NWS OFFICES AND ISSUED A FROST
ADVISORY. WILL GO AHEAD AND INCLUDE COOK COUNTY TOO BUT THAT WILL
BE FOR MAINLY OUTLYING AREAS. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS PROBABLE FOR AT
LEAST PATCHY LOCATIONS IN NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS TO DIP TO OR
BELOW FREEZING...SO WITHIN THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES AN UPGRADE
TO A FREEZE WARNING WOULD BE NEEDED TODAY.

.SUNDAY AND MONDAY...
WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ONE MORE SYSTEM IN THIS CURRENT WAVE TRAIN
IS FORECAST TO DROP THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE
WARM SECTOR PART OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE AREA
DURING SUNDAY...A PATTERN SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AND SIMILARLY WE
SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.
THIS ALONG WITH THE COOL STARTING POINT LOOK TO KEEP TEMPS DOWN
FROM WHAT THE 850-925MB CLIMATOLOGICALLY WOULD YIELD. HAVE HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. THE AIR LOOKS DRY AT FIRST BUT DURING
SUNDAY NIGHT THERE IS A LITTLE BETTER POTENTIAL TO RATTLE OUT
SOME LIGHT RAIN THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS INDICATED. WINDS AND
CLOUD SHOULD KEEP SUNDAY NIGHT TEMPS FROM DROPPING MUCH.

THE SYSTEM COLD FRONT PASSES DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH CONTINUED
SCATTERED SHOWER CHANCES. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDS AND IT LOOKS LIKE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS INTO NORTHWEST
INDIANA AND POSSIBLY EVEN FAR NORTHEAST ILLINOIS DEPENDING ON HOW
VEERED THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS.

.NEXT WEEK...
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST LOOKS FAIRLY QUIET AS THE AMPLIFIED
PATTERN CONTINUES BUT WE GET UNDER A SLOWING UPPER RIDGE DURING THIS
TIME. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO GRADUALLY MODERATE IN THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK WITH CERTAINLY THE POSSIBILITY TO WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL
GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN FORECAST BY MOST OF THE LONG RANGE
MODELS.

MTF

&&

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...

* MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THRU 22Z...THEN STEADILY LIFT TOWARDS
  VFR CONDS ARND SUNSET.

* NORTH WINDS UP TO 12KT AND GUSTS TO 17KT...DIMINISHING TO ARND
  10KT BY 22Z. THEN FURTHER DIMINISHING TO NEAR CALM CONDS
  OVERNIGHT.

BEACHLER

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...

VISIBLE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER ACROSS
THE REGION...WITH MOST CIGS ARND 2300-2800FT AGL. SOME DRY AIR IS
BEGINNING TO WORK INTO SOUTHERN WISC AND WILL EVENTUALLY ARRIVE
ACROSS NORTHERN IL AND HELP TO START BREAKING UP THE OVC CONDS
INTO A BKN DECK ARND 22Z AND ALSO LIFT CIG BASES UP TO ARND
3500-4000FT AGL. THE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO SLACKEN LATER THIS
EVENING...AS ADDTL DRY AIR FURTHER SCOURS THE CLOUDS. EXPECT NEAR
CALM CONDS TO DEVELOP BY 8Z SUN AND MINIMAL CLOUD COVER. WINDS
ARND DAYBREAK SUN BEGIN TO TURN SOUTHWEST WITH SOME GUSTS
DEVELOPING BY MIDDAY SUN TO ARND 16KT.

BEACHLER


//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR/SPEED.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS STEADILY IMPROVING TO VFR CONDS
  LATER THIS EVE. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN PRECISE TIMING OF CIGS
  LIFTING TO VFR.

BEACHLER

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

* SUNDAY NIGHT...CHANCE OF SHRA.
* MONDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA. WEST WINDS BECOMING NORTH.
* TUESDAY...DRY/VFR. NORTHEAST WINDS.
* WEDNESDAY...DRY/VFR. EAST WINDS.
* THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DRY/VFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...

258 PM...LOW PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL DRIFT EAST TODAY BUT REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY THIS WEEKEND. A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING FROM MANITOBA SOUTH TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY. THE GRADIENT
WILL SLOWLY RELAX THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON BUT THEN
RAPIDLY WEAKEN LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. MAINTAINED THE
GALE WARNING AS IS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT ITS POSSIBLE THAT
MAY BE JUST A TAD TOO LONG...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE LAKE.

WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY SUNDAY MORNING THEN STEADILY
INCREASE TO 15-25KT SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT
NORTHWEST MONDAY AND THEN NORTHERLY MONDAY NIGHT AND INCREASE INTO
THE 15-25KT RANGE. CMS

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...FROST ADVISORY...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-
     ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022-
     ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039...3 AM SUNDAY TO 8 AM SUNDAY.

IN...FROST ADVISORY...INZ019...3 AM SUNDAY TO 8 AM SUNDAY.

LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
     LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-
     LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 1 PM SATURDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 4 AM SUNDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 10 AM SUNDAY.

&&

$$

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

 1115 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
958 AM CDT

FOR MORNING UPDATE...

INCREASED POPS MARKEDLY ACROSS NORTHEAST IL AND NORTHWEST INDIANA
THROUGH REMAINDER OF THE MORNING HOURS...WITH SOLID AREA OF RAIN
MOVING SOUTHWARD OUT OF SOUTHEASTERN WISCONSIN IN ASSOCIATION WITH
DEEP MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT IS DIGGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. RAPID-REFRESH (HRRR) SEEMS TO HAVE A DECENT
HANDLE ON THIS AREA OF RAIN...WITH THE HRRR AND TIMING OF TRAILING
EDGE OF PRECIP FROM RADAR SUGGESTING RAIN WILL END ACROSS CHICAGO
AREA AROUND NOON...AND DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON FARTHER SOUTHEAST.

SOME LAKE EFFECT SPRINKLES WILL LIKELY LINGER ACROSS NORTHWEST
INDIANA FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT
A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LOWERING BEHIND THIS
RATHER STOUT WAVE THIS AFTERNOON SIGNIFICANTLY LIMITING CLOUD DEPTH
LATER ON. THIS IS ALSO EXPECTED TO HELP OPEN UP MORE HOLES IN
EXTENSIVE STRATOCU SHIELD UPSTREAM ACROSS WI...THOUGH WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR SATELLITE TRENDS AS OUR CURRENT FORECAST INDICATES LESS
CLOUD COVER BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. IF CLOUD COVER REMAINS MORE
EXTENSIVE MAY HAVE TO REVISIT HIGH TEMPS TOO...WITH COOL ADVECTION
CURRENTLY FEEDING AIR IN FROM WISCONSIN WHICH HAS TEMPS ONLY IN THE
LOW-MID 40S.

RATZER

//PREV DISCUSSION...
323 AM CDT

WITH 12 OF THE 17 DAYS SO FAR THIS MONTH WITH PRECIPITATION
/INCLUDING ONE WITH A LITTLE SNOW/...WE REMAIN IN THAT SAME THEME
WITH CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO KICK OFF THE WEEKEND THIS
MORNING AND THEN TO END IT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THAT ALONG
WITH AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND INFLUENCE ON TEMPERATURES THIS
WEEKEND WERE THE MAIN EMPHASIS IN THIS FORECAST.

.TODAY...
THE TWO UPPER LOWS THAT BROUGHT PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER TO THE LOCAL
AREA OVER THIS PAST WEEK HAVE MERGED AS A BROADER UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES. CHARGING DOWN THE
BACK/WEST SIDE OF THIS TROUGH IS A SHARPLY DEFINED VORTICITY
MAXIMUM OVER WESTERN WI EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS IS BRINGING A
FAIRLY FOCUSED AREA OF ASCENT AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES OF
7-8C/KM IN THE 700-550MB LAYER. RADAR MOSAIC INDICATES SWATHS OF
MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS IN CENTRAL/NORTHERN WI AND HIGH-RES GUIDANCE
HAS TRENDED UPWARD THE PAST FEW HOURS IN KEEPING THIS INTACT
ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH SATELLITE TRENDS SUPPORT. WITH A VERY
TRACKABLE FEATURE SUCH AS THIS /ALMOST REMINISCENT OF THE CLIPPERS
OF LAST WINTER/...HAVE TIMED THIS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING WITH ANY ONE PLACE IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST
INDIANA HAVING AN APPROXIMATELY 3 HOUR WINDOW OF SOME OFF AND ON
LIGHT RAIN. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS PORTER COUNTY WHICH LOOKS TO
REMAIN UNDER A LAKE EFFECT FETCH WITH HIGH ENOUGH INVERSION LEVELS
OF 8000 FT TO SUPPORT PERSISTENT SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY-MID
AFTERNOON.

THIS MID-LEVEL WAVE THIS MORNING EVEN HAS A SURFACE REFLECTION WHICH
BASICALLY IS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL ESTABLISH THE CLOUDS THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY
AS WELL AS KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM CLIMBING THIS MORNING. FORECAST
HIGHS ARE 8 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW MID-OCTOBER NORMALS. THE CLOUDS
WILL PROBABLY HANG TO NEAR SUNDOWN FOR THE EASTERN FORECAST
AREA...WITH AREAS OF NORTHWEST INDIANA LIKELY TO REMAIN UNDER LAKE
CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE EVENING AND POSSIBLY ALL NIGHT.

.TONIGHT...
WHILE THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES FOR WHEN LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS SCATTER
IN FAR NORTHWEST INDIANA...THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD
SEE FAIRLY DRAMATIC CLEARING LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVE. CLEARING GOING INTO THE NIGHT WITH A 1023MB HIGH SETTLING
OVERHEAD OFFERS THE BEST POTENTIAL SO FAR FOR A WIDESPREAD FROST.
HAVE COLLABORATED WITH NEIGHBORING NWS OFFICES AND ISSUED A FROST
ADVISORY. WILL GO AHEAD AND INCLUDE COOK COUNTY TOO BUT THAT WILL
BE FOR MAINLY OUTLYING AREAS. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS PROBABLE FOR AT
LEAST PATCHY LOCATIONS IN NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS TO DIP TO OR
BELOW FREEZING...SO WITHIN THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES AN UPGRADE
TO A FREEZE WARNING WOULD BE NEEDED TODAY.

.SUNDAY AND MONDAY...
WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ONE MORE SYSTEM IN THIS CURRENT WAVE TRAIN
IS FORECAST TO DROP THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE
WARM SECTOR PART OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE AREA
DURING SUNDAY...A PATTERN SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AND SIMILARLY WE
SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.
THIS ALONG WITH THE COOL STARTING POINT LOOK TO KEEP TEMPS DOWN
FROM WHAT THE 850-925MB CLIMATOLOGICALLY WOULD YIELD. HAVE HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. THE AIR LOOKS DRY AT FIRST BUT DURING
SUNDAY NIGHT THERE IS A LITTLE BETTER POTENTIAL TO RATTLE OUT
SOME LIGHT RAIN THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS INDICATED. WINDS AND
CLOUD SHOULD KEEP SUNDAY NIGHT TEMPS FROM DROPPING MUCH.

THE SYSTEM COLD FRONT PASSES DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH CONTINUED
SCATTERED SHOWER CHANCES. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDS AND IT LOOKS LIKE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS INTO NORTHWEST
INDIANA AND POSSIBLY EVEN FAR NORTHEAST ILLINOIS DEPENDING ON HOW
VEERED THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS.

.NEXT WEEK...
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST LOOKS FAIRLY QUIET AS THE AMPLIFIED
PATTERN CONTINUES BUT WE GET UNDER A SLOWING UPPER RIDGE DURING THIS
TIME. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO GRADUALLY MODERATE IN THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK WITH CERTAINLY THE POSSIBILITY TO WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL
GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN FORECAST BY MOST OF THE LONG RANGE
MODELS.

MTF

&&

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...

* NORTH WINDS 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT THRU MIDDAY.

* LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE UNTIL JUST BEFORE 17Z.

* MVFR CIGS THRU EARLY AFTERNOON.

* POSSIBLE WIND SHIFT TO NORTH/NORTHEAST LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
  EVENING.

BEACHLER

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...

AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING
BRINGING A 2-4 HOUR PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN TO THE TERMINALS. CURRENT
VISIBILITIES WITH THE RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL WI ARE VFR BUT SOME
BRIEF MVFR VIS IS POSSIBLE. MVFR CIGS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA
AND EXPECT PREVAILING MVFR CIGS FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING INTO
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH THERE COULD BE PERIODS WHERE CIGS GO
VFR...POSSIBLY DURING RAIN. CIGS WILL LIFT TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON
THEN SCATTER OUT BY EARLY EVENING WITH JUST HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED
TONIGHT.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL TURN BACK NORTHERLY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AND BEGIN TO GUST INTO THE 18-20KT RANGE MID/LATE MORNING. AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING...THE GRADIENT WILL STEADILY WEAKEN. THUS GUSTS SHOULD
DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS MAY TURN MORE NORTH/
NORTHEAST AT ORD/MDW BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE REGARDING WIND DIRECTION DURING THIS TIME. WINDS WILL
THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR CALM BY MID/LATE EVENING. CMS

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...

* MEDIUM FOR WIND SPEEDS/GUSTS/DIRECTIONS THRU EARLY AFTERNOON...
  THEN LOW FOR LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP REMAINING LIGHT...MEDIUM/HIGH
  CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP ENDING BY 17Z.

* HIGH FOR MVFR CIGS THRU EARLY AFTERNOON.

BEACHLER

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

* SUNDAY NIGHT...CHANCE OF SHRA.
* MONDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA. WEST WINDS BECOMING NORTH.
* TUESDAY...DRY/VFR. NORTHEAST WINDS.
* WEDNESDAY...DRY/VFR. EAST WINDS.
* THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DRY/VFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...

258 PM...LOW PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL DRIFT EAST TODAY BUT REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY THIS WEEKEND. A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING FROM MANITOBA SOUTH TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY. THE GRADIENT
WILL SLOWLY RELAX THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON BUT THEN
RAPIDLY WEAKEN LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. MAINTAINED THE
GALE WARNING AS IS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT ITS POSSIBLE THAT
MAY BE JUST A TAD TOO LONG...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE LAKE.

WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY SUNDAY MORNING THEN STEADILY
INCREASE TO 15-25KT SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT
NORTHWEST MONDAY AND THEN NORTHERLY MONDAY NIGHT AND INCREASE INTO
THE 15-25KT RANGE. CMS

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...FROST ADVISORY...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-
     ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022-
     ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039...3 AM SUNDAY TO 8 AM SUNDAY.

IN...FROST ADVISORY...INZ019...3 AM SUNDAY TO 8 AM SUNDAY.

LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
     LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-
     LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 1 PM SATURDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 4 AM SUNDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 10 AM SUNDAY.

&&

$$

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL

 327 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING LARGE 1025+ MB RIDGE UPSTREAM
ACRS THE EASTERN PLAINS UP INTO THE NORTHWESTERN GRT LKS. ALOFT
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WAS INDICATING VIGOROUS VORT MAX ROLLING
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF EAST CENTRAL IL TOWARD SOUTHEAST INDIANA. TOP-
DOWN DRYING AND ENHANCED SUBSIDENCE ERODING STRATOCU DECK IN PLACE
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...BUT PROCESS OCCURRING SLOWER THAN
EARLIER ANTICIPATED. BUT EXTRAPOLATING CURRENT CLEARING TRENDS ON
VIS SATELLITE LOOP SUGGEST THE LATEST RAP HANDLING OF CLEARING
LINE REACHING JUST EAST OF THE MS RVR BY 23Z ON TRACK OR EVEN A
TOUCH SLOW. EXPECT LATE AFTERNOON HIGHS WHERE CLEARING AND SOME
INSOLATION CAN OCCUR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

TONIGHT...INCOMING RIDGE ON TRACK ALONG WITH CLEARING AND SFC WIND
DECOUPLE FOR A CLEAR AND CHILLY NIGHT. WILL KEEP ONGOING FROST
ADVISORY IN PLACE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I80 ON THE IL SIDE OF THE MS
RVR...BUT RACE WILL BE ON WITH PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE HIGH
PRESSURE ALLOWING LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ON IT/S WESTERN FLANK
BEFORE SUNRISE SUNDAY. BUT SOUTHEASTERLY PUSH OF MAIN RIDGE CENTER
WILL ALLOW THE LIGHT/CALM SFC WIND REGIME TO HANG ON LONGEST IN
ONGOING ADVISORY/CLOSEST TO CENTER...SO WILL LET RIDE. COLDEST TEMPS
OF LOWER 30S IN LOWER SFC DPT FIELDS OF THE NORTHEASTERN CWA....BUT
BULK OF THE CWA SHOULD RANGE IN THE MID 30S EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHWEST
FCST AREA WHERE HOPEFULLY THE RETURN FLOW MENTIONED ABOVE WILL
PREVENT TEMPS FROM DIPPING OUT OF THE UPPER 30S.

SUNDAY...INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LLVL RETURN FLOW ALONG WITH
WARM AIR ADVECTION TO BOOST TEMPS IN MOST OF THE CWA INTO THE LOW
TO MID 60S...ALTHOUGH THE NORTHEASTER THIRD COULD BE HELD DOWN IN
THE UPPER 50S. SOME PASSING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON WILL
TEMPER THE WARM UP POTENTIAL SOME...OTHERWISE SOME AREAS COULD
GET INTO THE UPPER 60S OR NEAR 70 DEGREES.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

LONG TERM ENSEMBLE MODELS SHOW QUIET WEATHER WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE THEME DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60 WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA LATE ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WITH THE BEST
DYNAMICS AND FORCING TO OUR NORTH.. AND LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH.. THIS FRONT WILL MAINLY RESULT IN A WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST. STARTING MONDAY.. A LARGE LONGWAVE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD
OVER THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY AND REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH MID
WEEK. ON THURSDAY.. THE ENSEMBLE MODELS PROG AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TO CUT THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE AND MOVE SOUTHWEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY DRY WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT A
FEW SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE. BY NEXT WEEKEND..A MORE FLATTENED
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER MUCH OF THE NATION. THIS
RIDGE ALONG WITH CONTINUED MODERATION OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PRODUCE WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO PERHAPS
70 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

MVFR TO LOW VFR DECK HANGING ON ACRS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON...BUT CLEARING/BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS SEEN ON VIS
SATELLITE LOOP ACRS NORTHEASTERN IA INTO WI HEADED THIS WAY BY
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CID AND DBQ THE FIRST SITES TO
EXPERIENCE A SCATTER OUT AT 21Z TO 22Z OR SO...BUT MLI AND BRL MAY
NOT CLEAR TIL AFTER 23Z THIS AFTERNOON. NORTH TO NORTHWEST SFC
WINDS OF 6-12 KTS TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET WITH
IN-BUILDING SFC RIDGE. A LOW CHC FOR SOME SHALLOW FOG IN VCNTY OF
THE TAF SITES AFTER 09Z TONIGHT BUT WILL KEEP VSBYS GOOD FOR NOW
WITH UNCERTAINTY. INCREASING SOUTHWEST SFC WINDS OF 7-12 KTS ON
SUNDAY BY LATE MORNING.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR BUREAU-HANCOCK-
     HENDERSON-HENRY IL-MCDONOUGH-MERCER-PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-
     WARREN.

MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...KUHL
AVIATION...12






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI

 347 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM... AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT

GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND CONTINUES TO CARRY COOLER AIR INTO SE MICHIGAN
DURING THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A
FROSTY NIGHT AS THE WIND DROPS OFF AND MIN TEMPS DROP BELOW
FREEZING. READINGS AS LOW AS THE UPPER 20S WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
INTERIOR LOWER DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER.

MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS CAPTURE THE AFTERNOON BOUNDARY LAYER
BECOMING INCREASINGLY SHALLOW AND MORE STABLE TOWARD EVENING...A
TREND ILLUSTRATED IN THE 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS BETWEEN APX AND
DTX...AND REFLECTED IN RADAR TREND DURING THE AFTERNOON. FROM
THERE...IT IS MORE DIFFICULT TO GAGE THE MODEL SOUNDING QUALITY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. THE MAIN STICKING POINT LIES WITH THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AT THE BASE OF THE STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION THAT DROPS AS LOW AS 900 MB BY 12Z SUNDAY. THERE IS ABOUT
AN EVEN SPLIT BETWEEN THE CLOUDIER NAM AND RAP MODELS VS THE MORE
OPTIMISTIC GFS AND SREF MEAN. OBSERVATIONAL EVIDENCE SUPPORTS THE
LATTER AS DRIER AIR MAKES INROADS THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES UPSTREAM CLOUDS TAKING ON A CONVINCING
LAKE INFLUENCE AND DIURNAL DEPENDENCY OVER LAND WHICH WILL RESULT IN
NOCTURNAL STRATOCU REMAINING CLOSER TO THE SHORELINES. NEUTRAL
NORTH-NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW ALSO FAVORS LESS CLOUDS IN OUR AREA
WITH A DRY DOWNSLOPE TRAJECTORY FROM NORTHERN LOWER INTO THE SAGINAW
VALLEY AND OVER THE REST OF SE MICHIGAN DURING THE NIGHT. THE
EXCEPTION COULD BE OVER THE NORTHERN/EASTERN THUMB WHERE A LONGER
OVER WATER FETCH WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM ABOUT STURGEON POINT
SOUTHWARD WHICH COULD MAINTAIN GREATER STRATOCU COVERAGE THERE
THROUGH SUNRISE SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...

MODEST HEIGHT RISES TOMORROW WITH SOME SEMBLANCE OF WARM FRONT
LIFTING NORTH THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN. UNCERTAINTY IS WITH THE AMOUNT
OF LOW LEVEL WARMING AND SCOURING OUT OF REMNANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...AS NAM SOUNDINGS/925 MB RH FIELD STILL PAINTS A POTENTIAL
CLOUD HINDRANCE...AND A SOMEWHAT CONSERVATIVE APPROACH IN MAXES WILL
BE TAKEN OFF THE COLD START AND WITH 925 MB TEMPS FORECASTED TO ONLY
RISE TO 4 C DURING PEAK HEATING...WORTHY OF MAXES AROUND 50/LOWER
50S DE AS HIGH CLOUDS ALSO EXPECTED TO RAMP UP DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

UPPER LEVEL ENERGY OVER WESTERN CANADA WILL BE CARVING OUT ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY AS WE HEAD
INTO MONDAY. THE RATE OF AMPLIFICATION IS A BIT UNCERTAIN...BUT
850-700 MB THETA-E RIDGE/MOISTURE AXIS LOOKS PRETTY GOOD...ARRIVING
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY...WITH HIGH CHANCE/LOW LIKELY POPS
SEEMING APPROPRIATE. 500 MB COLD CORE (-23 TO-25 C) TO TRAVERSE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...AND LI`S ARE FORECASTED TO DROP
TOWARD ZERO...WITH AROUND 500 J/KG OF CAPE (PER NAM)...AND AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT AND
CONTINUED LOW CHANCE POPS IN CASE AMPLIFICATION IS FASTER...YIELDING
SLIGHTLY SLOWER FRONTAL PASSAGE/DRYING OUT PROCESS.

UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE
SLOWLY-DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH WHICH WILL CUT OFF OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND. THIS WILL LEAD TO
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES...WITH A
RETURN TO HIGHS IN THE 60S POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...

OBSERVATIONS LATE THIS AFTERNOON SHOW WIND GUSTS BELOW GALE FORCE
AND WILL DROP THE GALE WARNINGS WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...AS
PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS AND THE COLD ADVECTION DIMINISHES INTO
TONIGHT. MUCH LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW AS SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS SLIDES THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...LEADING TO A SHIFT IN
THE WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL
PASS THROUGH LATE MONDAY. SUSTAINED WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK OUT
AROUND 20 KNOTS SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS DEVELOPING. A STRONG HIGH BUILDING OVER ONTARIO
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL TRANSLATE TO STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS
OVER LAKE HURON...WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE LAKE...WHERE THE FETCH WILL BE GREATEST. HIGHER WAVES
WILL IMPACT NEARSHORE WATERS WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW...AND SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 103 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

//DISCUSSION...

NORTHWEST FLOW CARRYING IN COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPLY CLOUD
COVER OVER SE MICHIGAN DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
STUBBORN MVFR CEILING REMAINS EXPECTED TO MIX INTO THE LOWER END OF
VFR BELOW 5000 FT AND THEN LINGER A LITTLE LONGER INTO THE
EVENING...ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE DTW TERMINAL CORRIDOR. UPSTREAM
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE SOME DRYING AND MIXING OCCURRING OVER THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WHICH STILL SUPPORTS A CLEARING TREND OVER SE
MICHIGAN FROM LATE EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. ONE THING TO
MONITOR WILL BE COVERAGE OF LAKE INDUCED STRATOCU AND/OR TRAPPING OF
STRATOCU BUT LOW LEVEL WIND FROM ABOUT 320 IS TYPICALLY A DRY
TRAJECTORY INTO OUR AREA FROM NORTHERN LOWER. CLOUDS INDUCED BY LAKE
MICHIGAN MAY BECOME MORE RELEVANT DURING SUNDAY MORNING AS THE LOW
LEVEL WIND BACKS TOWARD THE WEST.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FEET THROUGH EVENING.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...NONE.

LAKE HURON...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT
     HURON INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY...UNTIL 4 AM SUNDAY.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.

MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM....SF/DT
MARINE.......SF
AVIATION.....BT


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 236 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 443 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH MUCH OF THE MOISTURE ON WV IMAGERY
BEGINNING TO DIVE SOUTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA. AT THE
SURFACE...A 988MB LOW CENTERED OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC IS STRETCHING A
COLD FRONT SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. BEHIND
THIS COLD FRONT...STRONG NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS ARE IN PLACE OVER
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WITH GUSTS TO 35KTS SEEN AT 2AM OVER
EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THESE GUSTY WINDS HAVE HELPED AID UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT OF THE RAINFALL OVER THE AREA IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NORTH CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN. 24HR RAINFALL AMOUNT AT OUR OFFICE WAS
1.43 INCHES THROUGH 2AM...WHILE LOCATIONS NEAR THE LAKE SHORE IN
MARQUETTE COUNTY HAVE ONLY SEEN AROUND 0.9 INCHES. DID SEE SOME
SNOW MIX IN AT OUR OFFICE (STARTED SHORTLY AFTER 2AM) AND ALSO ON
SOME OF THE WESTERN U.P. WEBCAMS...WHICH MATCHES UP WITH MODEL
WETBULB0 VALUES. BUT...WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT ALREADY SURGING INTO
THE AREA...SEEN IN THE QUICK DIMINISHMENT OF RADAR RETURNS OVER THE
LAST 1-1.5HRS...DO HAVE SOME CONCERN WITH HOW MUCH SNOW WILL
CONTINUE TO MIX IN. THIS IS DUE TO THE STRENGTHENING INVERSION
AROUND 850MB BOTH TRAPPING IN MOISTURE BELOW IT AND ALSO LIMITING
THE TOP OF THE CLOUD TO AROUND -5 TO -7C. THIS IS MARGINAL FOR ICE
CRYSTALS TO BE IN THE CLOUDS AND ALTHOUGH THE WETBULB0 VALUES WOULD
SUPPORT MAINLY SNOW...WILL GO WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE UNCERTAINTY OF ICE CRYSTALS. HAVE BEEN IMPRESSED AT HOW QUICKLY
THE SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED WITH THE DEPARTING DEEP MOISTURE AND
THAT LEADS TO LIMITED CONFIDENCE ON HOW LONG THE
SCATTERED/ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL LINGER TODAY. WITH THE DEEP
MOISTURE GONE...FORCING COMES FROM LAKE SUPERIOR AND UPSLOPE. WITH
THE LAKE INFLUENCE LIMITED DUE TO LAKE SUPERIOR TEMPS AROUND 7C
(CREATING MARGINAL DELTA-T VALUES FOR PURE LAKE EFFECT)...WILL
FOCUS THE BEST POPS WHERE THE ADDED UPSLOPE INFLUENCE IS OVER
THE NORTH CENTRAL U.P. WILL DIMINISH PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH
THE DAY AND HAVE THEM DONE BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...WILL
HOLD ON TO SOME CLOUD COVER INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH THAT MOISTURE
TRAPPED BELOW THE INVERSION...BUT EXPECT DIURNAL MIXING AND
INCREASING LOW LEVEL DRY AIR (FROM THE APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE) TO HELP SCATTER THE CLOUDS OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON AWAY FROM
THE PERSISTENT NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. THE
CLOUDS COMBINED WITH THE THERMAL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
WILL LEAD TO A COOL DAY TODAY AND HAVE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S AND
LOWER 40S.

WITH DECREASING CLOUDS AND THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVING DIRECTLY
OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...EXPECT A GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING PERIOD
THIS EVENING AND FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN. THAT WILL LEAD TO A COLD AND FROSTY NIGHT FOR THE U.P.
AND WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE LOW END OF GUIDANCE FOR LOWS
TONIGHT. ONE THING TO KEEP AN EYE ON IS THE CLOUDS FOR THE NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST CWA THIS EVENING AND INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT
HOURS. WITH THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUING TO PRODUCE SOME
LAKE INFLUENCE WITH THE MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW THE
INVERSION...COULD SEE THE CLOUDS IN THOSE AREAS HANGING ON FOR MUCH
OF THE NIGHT. THUS...DID KEEP TEMPS A LITTLE HIGHER IN SOME OF
THOSE LOCATIONS FOR TONIGHT. FINALLY...HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW MOVING
THROUGH ON SUNDAY NIGHT. THOSE HIGH CLOUDS AND RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPING BEHIND THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH MAY LEAD TO TEMPS
WARMING SLIGHTLY OVER THE WEST TOWARDS DAY BREAK.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 443 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

SURFACE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY WILL SHIFT INTO THE
EASTERN LAKES ON SUNDAY AS NEXT SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF
CANADA INTO THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH POSITION OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S.
NOT AS MUCH MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE THIS TIME AROUND AND ONLY EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO ACCOMPANY THE SURFACE/UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE LATE
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY.

BEYOND MONDAY...A MUCH NEEDED BREAK FROM THE WET WEATHER IS ON THE
WAY. UPPER RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL NUDGE JUST FAR
ENOUGH EAST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ALLOWING FOR A STRING OF DRY
AND MILD DAYS FOR THE TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 232 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY ERODE THIS AFTERNOON. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS
WILL BE CMX AND SAW...AS IWD IS QUICKLY SCATTERING OUT. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY STICK AROUND TO BRING TEMPORARY MVFR CEILINGS TO SAW
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AS WINDS CONTINUE OUT OF THE N.
DRIER AIR FROM A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL LEAD
TO A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT TONIGHT WITH GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS...BEFORE HIGH CLOUDS NEAR FROM THE W LATE IN THE PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 232 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

DIMINISHING WINDS WILL CONTINUE...AND REMAIN LESS THAN 30KTS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL SINK TO
THE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE AS A LOW ACROSS MANITOBA
SUNDAY MORNING SHIFTS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR SUNDAY NIGHT...AND EXITS
ACROSS LAKE HURON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS MANITOBA EARLY MONDAY TO BUILD ACROSS ONTARIO AND LAKE
SUPERIOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE HIGH BUILD ACROSS QUEBEC
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WHILE KEEPING A RIDGE ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR. AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM MANITOBA
THROUGH HUDSON BAY ON WEDNESDAY WILL DRIFT ACROSS N ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC ON THURSDAY...WITH A TROUGH SETTLING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...KF






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS DULUTH MN

 1226 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM MANITOBA INTO THE DAKOTAS WILL MOVE
EAST TODAY OVER THE NORTHLAND...THEN CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION TONIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND A SHORTWAVE WILL THEN
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

LATEST RADAR SHOWS ECHO COVERAGE DIMINISHING OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS...AND THIS IS IN LINE WITH LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. THE
GRAVITY WAVE INDUCED AREA OF PRECIP OVER THE NORTH SHORE INTO THE
HEAD OF LAKE SUPERIOR HAS ENDED...AS FORECAST BY THE RAP DUE TO DECREASING
MOISTURE AND WIND SPEED. A FAVORABLE SET FOR LAKE EFFECT PRECIP
EXISTS ACROSS NORTHERN ASHLAND/IRON COUNTIES AS FAR AS FETCH AND
DELTA-T VALUES ARE CONCERNED THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...DEEPER MOISTURE
WILL BE QUITE LIMITED AND INVERSION LEVELS WILL BE LOWERING
THROUGH THE MORNING. WE WILL CARRY SOME POPS FOR A TIME THIS
MORNING...BUT THINK THE LACK OF MOISTURE WILL SHUT DOWN ANY LAKE
EFFECT LATER THIS MORNING. THERE WERE STILL PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND AND UPSTREAM OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO THIS MORNING. THE
RAP DOES SHOW THESE CLOUDS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THROUGH THE
DAY...AND WE EXPECT CLEARING FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH THE DAY. MORE
SUN IS EXPECTED EARLIER FROM THE NORTH SHORE CLOSE TO THE LAKE
DOWN TOWARD THE TWIN PORTS DUE TO SUBSIDENCE DOWN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING...THEN CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
AS A SHORTWAVE AND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE IN. THE AIRMASS IS
INITIALLY QUITE DRY...SO WE DELAYED ANY POPS UNTIL LATE TONIGHT
OVER NORTHERN AREAS. WE HAVE A CHANCE OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF
THE REGION SUNDAY...WITH LOW POPS SOUTH AND HIGHER POPS FAR NORTH.
RAINFALL WILL BE QUITE LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH MOST AREAS ONLY
RECEIVING A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM NW ONTARIO TO THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. ITS COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE NORTHLAND. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
OVER THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT FROM THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS ON MONDAY TO THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES BY TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING WARMER WEATHER TO THE REGION FOR
THE MIDDLE AND LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY...THEY WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT 5
TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

A PASSING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE COULD BRING SHOWERS TO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE GFS AND GEM ARE MUCH DRIER THAN THE
ECMWF...SO THE LOW PCPN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST ARE PRIMARILY A
REFLECTION OF THE WETTER ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

AFTER THE LOW SCT/BKN DECK MIXES OUT THIS MORNING VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A WEAK FRONT MOVING
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND SUN MORNING. ANY PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT WILL BE LIGHT...AND MAINLY CONFINED TO THE ARROWHEAD.
NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO MENTION RA/VCSH AT THIS POINT...BUT INL
AND HIB MAY NEED VCSH AROUND 12Z SUN MORNING. THERE WILL ALSO BE A
PERIOD OF LLWS AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT...WITH 1500FT WINDS 25
TO 35 KT FROM THE SW AND LIGHT SOUTH WINDS AT THE SFC.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  48  34  56  42 /  10  10  30  10
INL  46  37  59  40 /  10  20  30   0
BRD  49  40  62  42 /   0  10  10   0
HYR  47  31  57  41 /  10  10  20   0
ASX  48  31  56  42 /  10  10  30  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...BJT






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION

NWS ST LOUIS MO

 123 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Tonight)
Issued at 334 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2014

Early morning water vapor imagery and RAP PV analyses both
depicted a strong shortwave located over northern MN and
southwestern ONT. This feature is forecast to dive southward and
southeastward today, moving through parts of central IL before
reaching KY and TN by 00z. This system appears to be
moisture-starved and no pcpn is expected with its passage near the
LSX CWA. Meanwhile, a cool Canadian high pressure center will
build in at the surface today and tonight. The ridge axis should
be nearly overhead by 12z, resulting in good radiational cooling
conditions and rather cool overnight/early morning lows for Sunday
morning. Patchy frost in sheltered areas is not out of the
question.

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM:  (Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 334 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2014

Winds become southerly to southwesterly on Sunday once the
aforementioned high pressure center shifts southeastward. Another
shortwave moving through the Great Lakes will lead to increased
precipitation chances from late Sunday night through Monday
afternoon. Models are showing at least some moisture being drawn
into the area ahead of the shortwave, therefore slight chance to
chance PoPs look appropriate at this time.

A pattern resembling an omega block is forecast over the CONUS for
most of next week. Dry easterly or southeasterly surface flow is
expected through the middle of the week across the LSX CWA.
ECMWF/GFS/GEM all agree that the highly amplified upper ridge axis
will shift eastward with time, but initially small differences in
the handling of a weak vort max crossing the Rockies ultimately
lead to large differences between models regarding the large scale
upper air pattern over the central CONUS by next Thursday.

Kanofsky

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 109 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2014

Scattered to broken clouds between 2.5Kft and 3.5Kft will continue
to move southward mainly over Illinois and parts of the eastern
third of Missouri. These clouds are in response to low-level
moisture moving southward between surface high from southern
Minnesota through eastern Nebraska and low center northeast of the
eastern Great Lakes region. Suraace winds of 10 kts with local
gusts of 15 kts can be expected this afternoon over eastern
Missouri and much of Illinois. As the surface high moves southeast
skies will clear this evening over the region.

Specifics for KSTL: Low level moisture from the north continues to
move southward over eastern Missouri and much of Illinois
resulting in scattered to broken layers of clouds. Surface winds
from the north-northwest of 10kts with gusts to 16kts will
diminish this evening. Skies will become mostly clear after
02-0300 UTC period.

Przybylinski

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND FORKS ND

 1248 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

RAPIDLY CLREAING SKIES OVER NORTHCENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN MN WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME SLIGHT ADDITIONAL TEMP GAINS THERE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE CLOUDY TO MOSTLYU CLOYUDY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL OVER THE RED RIVER AND DEVILS LAKE BASINS THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON... WITH CLOUDS CONTINUING A SLOW DECREASE THROUGH THE
EVENING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1015 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES NEEDED YET THIS FORENOON. LOW LEVEL CLOUD
DECK STILL FIRMLY IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA
WILL VERY SLOWLY ERODE AND SHIFT NOERTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE LATER
AFTERNOON. DAYTIME TEMPS WILL SEE ONLY MODEST GAINS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 610 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

THE LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO INDICATE CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OVER MOST
OF THE FA THROUGH MOST OF THIS AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD BE SOME
THINNING OF CLOUDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE EDGES OF THE
FA...BUT THE VALLEY SHOULD REMAIN CLOUDY THROUGH MOST OF TODAY.
HAVE ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS TO INDICATE MORE CLOUDS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE CLOUD TRENDS TODAY AND TEMPS OVERALL.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT...WITH THEN NAM HAVING A
BETTER HANDLE ON THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS OVER THE REGION NOW.

FOR TODAY...A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL BE OVER THE AREA
TODAY...AND THIS SHOULD TRAP CLOUDS AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST.
EXPECTING A CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY MORNING FOR ALL AREAS. THERE
SHOULD BE SOME THINNING OF CLOUDS ON THE WEST AND EASTERN EDGES OF
THE FA AFTER 18Z...BUT CLOUDS COULD REMAIN MOST OF THE AFTERNOON
IN THE VALLEY. HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST IN THE DIRECTION OF MORE
CLOUDS...AND TWEAKED HIGHS DOWN A FEW DEGREES. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL SLOWLY INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD ALSO CAUSE
CLOUDS TO THIN BY 21Z.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP AND A MILD NIGHT IS
EXPECTED WITH MINIMAL TEMP FALL FOR MOST AREAS WITH WINDS
REMAINING AROUND 10KT...PERHAPS A BIT HIGHER.

ON SUNDAY...A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
REGION. THERE IS NO DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE TO SPEAK OF...SO
EXPECTING A DRY SYSTEM. THERE WILL BE COOLING IN THE MID
LEVELS...BUT WITH FAVORABLE WESTERLY WIND FLOW SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...TEMPS SHOULD STILL RISE ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

ON MONDAY...THE GFS IS COOLER THAN THE NAM AND WOULD YIELD HIGHS
IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60...WITH THE NAM A BIT WARMER. TEMPS SHOULD
BE COOLER THAN SUNDAY THOUGH WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND LIMITED MIXING
OVER THE AREA.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING IN A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MID WEEK...ALTHOUGH THERE CONTINUE TO BE DIFFERENCES IN
THE TIMING. THE ECMWF IS FASTER AND PRODUCES MORE PRECIP THAN THE
GFS AND GEM ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE OTHER OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE
SLOWER AND DRIER. SEVERAL OF THE NAEFS MEMBERS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH
THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF...SO THERE IS ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY TO INCLUDE
SOME POPS FOR WEDNESDAY DURING THE DAY. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE
PRECIP THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND IN THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES
THURSDAY BEFORE DRYING OUT ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER
THAN AVERAGE WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 60S UNDER RIDGING TO SOUTHWEST
AND WEST FLOW ALOFT. THERE ARE SOME SIGNS OF A SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA WHICH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH
SOMETIME LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN
FAIRLY MILD AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

CHALLENGING CLOUD COVER SCENARIO WITH ALL AIRFIELDS DRAPED UNDER
MVFR CIGS SAVE KDVL WHICH IS IFR. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW LIKELY
TO KEEP THESE CIGS INTACT THROUGH SUNDOWN. SIGNS OF EROSION EAST
OF FORECAST REGION SHOWING UP PRESENTLY...BUT BETTING THIS WON`T
GET TO KBJI FOR SEVERAL HOURS. OTHERWISE LIGHT SOUTHERLY SURFACE
WIND FIELD WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...WITH APPROACHING
TROUGH POSSIBLY SWINGING WINDS TOWARD WEST AT END OF TAF PERIOD.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GUST
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK/JR
AVIATION...WJB







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

 1234 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

MAIN ISSUE CONTINUES TO BE THE STRATUS LAYER ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. VISIBLE LOOPS SHOW THE CLOUDS BEGINNING TO
ERODE QUICKLY MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY NORTH TO MINOT. THIS AREA WILL
CLEAR SHORTLY AFTER 1 PM. KEPT CLOUDS IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
THROUGH 22Z OR 5 PM. TRIMMED HIGHS EAST TO UPPER 40S.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 940 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

PROBLEM OF THE DAY WILL BE LOW CLOUDS AND THE IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURES AND AVIATION. 11Z HRRR MODEL KEEPS LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
IN THE CENTRAL A BIT LONGER INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LIMIT
HIGHS A BIT JAMES RIVER VALLEY. WILL BE A BIT MORE PESSIMISTIC ON
CLEARING CLOUDS FOR AVIATION AS WELL.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

WARM FRONT OVER EASTERN MONTANA WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA TODAY. CURRENTLY...MVFR-IFR CEILINGS ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR
WESTERN TIER COUNTIES. ALSO SOME PATCHY FOG...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
WESTERN FRINGE OF THE LOW STRATUS. TEMPERATURES WERE FAIRLY
UNIFORM IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S UNDER THE CLOUD COVER...EXCEPT FOR
SOME LOWER 30S FAR SOUTHWEST WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED. PATCHY FOG
IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE QUICKLY THIS MORNING WITH INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH THE ADVANCING WARM FRONT. STRATUS IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE EAST OF THE MINOT AND BISMARCK AREAS AROUND MIDDAY AND
HANG ON OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND TURTLE MOUNTAINS THROUGH
THE EARLY AFTERNOON. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER
KEEPING MVFR CEILINGS IN THE FAR EAST THROUGH AROUND 20-21 UTC.
OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

MAIN CONCERNS TODAY WILL BE THE TIMING OF ERODING LOW CLOUDS
ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND THE PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT/COLD
FRONT IN THE NEXT 24HR. THE LATEST FOG/STRATUS LOOP IN CONJUNCTION
WITH HRRR CEILING FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT EARLY
THIS MORNING AND HAVE UTILIZED THIS FOR THE SKY GRIDS. ESSENTIALLY
EXPECT THE BACK EDGE OF THE LOW CLOUDS...WHICH CURRENTLY STRETCH
ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM CROSBY TO WILLISTON/WATFORD
CITY/DICKINSON/ELGIN...TO BEGIN ERODING FROM WEST TO EAST AT
15Z...THEN WORKING INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BETWEEN 18Z-20Z.
INCREASING 3HR PRESSURE FALLS DUE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION/RISING
MOTION NOW ENTERING THE WEST WILL HELP FACILITATE THE EROSION OF
THE LOW CLOUDS DURING THE MORNING AND SHIFT THE CLEARING LINE EAST
BY EARLY AFTERNOON. ONCE THIS OCCURS EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
WITH SCT MID/HIGH CLOUDS LATER TODAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONTAL
PASSAGE ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED
BY A COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT. COOLING WILL BE MINIMAL BEHIND
THIS FRONT. H85 TEMPS RISE TO +9/10C SATURDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER
MIXING HEIGHTS WILL REACH ONLY TO AROUND 890MB..SO WILL NOT SEE
THE FULL MIXING/WARMTH POTENTIAL AS THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ABOVE
THIS LEVEL REMAINS STRONG. BOTH FRONTAL PASSAGES WILL BE DRY.
EXPECT HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL TO
LOWER 60S WEST. LOWS OF AROUND 40F CAN BE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE A CONTINUED WARM
AND DRY PERIOD AS A LONG WAVE RIDGE TRAVERSES EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE STATE FROM NW TO SE ON
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...BUT OTHER THAN CLOUDS...DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS BEST MOISTURE REMAINS EAST AND NORTH OF ND.

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MID-WEEK DEPICTING LONG WAVE
RIDGE SLOWLY PUSHING EAST ACROSS NORTH AMERICA...RESULTING IN MUCH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER.

THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK SEES THE RIDGE AXIS PASS TO OUR
EAST...THOUGH DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT ANOMALOUSLY HIGH HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT HIGH
TEMPS WELL INTO THE 60S THROUGH THE WEEK.

GFS/ECMWF SHOW SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING BEHIND THE UPPER RIDGE. MAIN ENERGY SPLITS TO THE
NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA RESULTING IN SOME VERY LOW POPS
OVER THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. OTHERWISE
DRY WEATHER DOMINATES THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

A DRY WARM FRONT ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA WILL MOVE EAST TODAY.
STRATUS CLOUDS WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL CLEAR EAST OF A
MINOT TO BISMARCK LINE AROUND 18Z. CONDITIONS IMPROVING FROM IFR
TO VFR AT KJMS AROUND 21Z. REMAINDER OF FORECAST PERIOD VFR.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...WAA







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON OH

 145 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DIG ACROSS OHIO AND
KENTUCKY TODAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SKIES WILL CLEAR
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA....BRINGING A CHANCE
OF FROST. A DRY SUNDAY IS EXPECTED WITH COOL TEMPERATURES
LINGERING. LOOKING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL...WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN MOVING BACK INTO THE AREA ON
MONDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES FROM CANADA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT HAS
PASSED SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER...AND IS MOVING OUT OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SEVERAL AREAS OF VERY LIGHT RADAR
ECHOES ACROSS THE CWA...BUT RAIN OBSERVATIONS AT AWOS/ASOS SITES
HAVE BEEN VERY ISOLATED.

AS AN UPPER TROUGH ROTATES SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION
TODAY...CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE...MAINLY AFTER
18Z. SLIGHT TIMING AND PLACEMENT ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO POPS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT STILL KEPT NO HIGHER THAN 30 PERCENT.
THIS MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED IF TRENDS SEEN ON RECENT RAP/HRRR
RUNS AND THE 12Z NAM APPEAR LIKELY TO VERIFY. THESE MODELS DEVELOP
A MORE CONSOLIDATED AREA OF PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN...MOVING SSE INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE ILN FORECAST
AREA. THE ROTATION OF THE VORTICITY MAXIMUM DRIVING THIS FORECAST
IS NOW STARTING TO COME INTO VIEW ON VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY...AND WILL BE A FEATURE TO WATCH THROUGH THE DAY.

A BAND OF BROKEN CLEARING HAS DEVELOPED FROM NORTHEAST INDIANA
THROUGH NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER MICHIGAN SUGGESTS THAT THIS WILL GRADUALLY
FILL IN AS MORE CLOUDS ADVECT FROM THE NORTH. HOWEVER...THERE ARE
INDICATIONS ON THE RAP THAT MOISTURE DOWNSTREAM FROM LOWER
MICHIGAN MAY BE SLIGHTLY LESS ENHANCED THAN MOISTURE IN AREAS WITH
A FETCH MORE DIRECTLY OFF OF THE GREAT LAKES.

THE PREVIOUS TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS STILL IN LINE WITH THE LATEST
MODEL TRENDS AND CURRENT CONDITIONS...SO NO CHANGES WERE MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION >
A FEW LIGHT ECHOS ARE DROPPING THE ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES EARLY
THIS MORNING. THESE ARE PROBABLY NO MORE THAN SPRINKLES ATTM. A
SHARP S/W TROF WILL SWING DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE FA
TODAY. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL INCREASE AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES...THUS SO WILL PCPN CHANCES. OVERALL THE BETTER CHANCE
OF PCPN WILL BE ACROSS THE NRN COUNTIES...BUT CANT RULE OUT A
SHOWER ANYWHERE.

EXPANSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOL TODAY...LIMITING
HIGHS TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE NORTH AND THE MID 50S ACROSS THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
BY 00Z THIS EVENING THE S/W TROF HAS SWUNG E OF THE FA...TO NEAR
THE OH/WV BORDER. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE TROF SHOULD ALLOW FOR
QUICK CLEARING OF LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT. SOME LAKE EFFECT SC OFF OF
LAKES MICHIGAN AND ERIE IS POSSIBLE...BUT EXPECT IT TO STAY NORTH
OF THE AREA. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SFC...WINDS WILL
LIGHTEN. COLDEST AIR ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION EARLY
TONIGHT...BUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD BE ABLE TO DECOUPLE
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NW 2/3RD OF THE FA TO DROP INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 30S. FROST SHOULD DEVELOP IN THIS REGIME...SO WILL
ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY NORTH OF A LINE FROM ABOUT CVG-ILN-LHQ.

EXPECT A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY WITH SFC HIGH OVER THE
REGION. NW FLOW ALOFT SHOULD BRING SOME CI. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLOW TO WARM DESPITE THE SUNSHINE...LEAVING HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 50S.

RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH WILL INCREASE MOISTURE
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. S/W ENERGY IN THE FAST FLOW ALOFT
WILL HELP PCPN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE N/W HALF OF THE FA SUNDAY NIGHT.

A CDFNT WILL ADVANCE ON THE REGION MONDAY HELPING TO FOCUS THE
LIFT. KEPT A HIGH CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN GFS/ECMWF IN THE OVERALL UPR PATTERN
AND THE ASSOC SFC FEATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED...ALTHOUGH SOME
CHANGES IN BOTH MODELS FROM YESTERDAY INCLUDE A DEEPER UPR LEVEL LOW
AND THEREFOR SLOWER TO DEPART THE REGION PRIOR TO THE DEEP RIDGING
DOMINATING THE CENTRAL/WESTERN CONUS IN THE LATTER PART OF THE
EXTENDED. HAVE LINGERED SHOWERS NOW THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY IN THE
EAST AS THE UPR LOW CONTINUES TO BECOME DEEPER WITH EACH MODEL RUN
AND WILL RESULT IN PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER IN THE EAST WELL INTO
WEDNESDAY. HAVE ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT LOWS UPWARD IN THE TUE NIGHT/WED
NIGHT TIMEFRAME ACCORDINGLY WITH THE DELAY IN POST FRONTAL CLEARING.

WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR UPDATES IN TEMPS/PRECIP/CLOUDS IN THE EAST
IF THE LOW CONTINUES TO SLOW/DEEPEN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CEILINGS OVER THE REGION HAVE BEEN OSCILLATING BETWEEN 2000-4000
FEET...BUT UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT A SWITCH TO
PREVAILING MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD BE LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. AS THIS IS HAPPENING...AN AREA OF RAIN OVER NORTHERN
INDIANA WILL BE MOVING SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE TAF SITES. AS THIS
RAIN NOW APPEARS LIKELY TO AFFECT THE AIRPORTS...PREVAILING
SHOWERS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED IN THE TAFS. VISIBILITIES IN THE RAIN
HAVE GENERALLY BEEN VFR...BUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VISIBILITIES
WILL BE POSSIBLE. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY GUSTY...BUT
SHOULD DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THEY TURN TO THE WEST.

AFTER THE RAIN MOVES OUT...CEILINGS MAY CONTINUE TO DROP AS NIGHT
FALLS...THOUGH GENERALLY NO LOWER THAN 1500 FEET. ONE CHALLENGE
FOR THE FORECAST IS DETERMINING WHEN THE CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE.
THE NEW TAFS ARE SLIGHTLY MORE PESSIMISTIC...KEEPING CEILINGS IN
PLACE THROUGH MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE IS SOMEWHAT OF A
CHANCE THAT MVFR CEILINGS COULD LAST INTO THE MORNING.
HOWEVER...ONCE CLEARING OCCURS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO
SUNDAY.

.OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR OHZ026-034-
     035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>072-077-080.
KY...NONE.
IN...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR INZ050-058-
     059-066-073-074.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BINAU/SITES
NEAR TERM...HATZOS/SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...JDR
AVIATION...HATZOS






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SAN ANGELO TX

 1243 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/
MVFR CIGS have cleared most of the area early this afternoon. We
will see some VFR SCT clouds develop later this afternoon as
moisture continues to increase in the low levels from the east and
southeast. Expect mainly VFR conditions through the evening hours,
but MVFR CIGS are expected to move back into the area again early
Sunday morning, mainly for our southern and eastern sites, but
these low clouds could also affect KSJT and KABI for a portion of
the morning. 20

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 622 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

IFR conditions have moved into the southern terminals this
morning, as a patchy stratus deck in the 500 to 1000 foot range
spreads northwest into the area. Based on satellite trends and
model data, these ceilings should persist into mid morning and
then break up and dissipate. All sites should see VFR conditions
by noon that should continue into the early morning hours on
Sunday. Models suggest that low clouds should being to move back
into the around sunrise Sunday morning.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Weak front has stalled and is dissipating just south of the I-10
corridor early this morning. Low cloud imagery showing low clouds
developing across the Hill Country, and spreading northwest towards
Junction and Mason. Latest RUC suggests that these low clouds will
spread into at least portions of West Central Texas and have
increased cloud cover across the Northwest Hill Country counties for
the morning hours. The low clouds are a sign of the increasing low
level moisture spreading back into the area, and this will keep
overnight lows up tonight. After lows in the low to mid 50s this
morning, lows tonight will be in the mid 50s to near 60 degrees
across the area.

LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)

An upper level low will be located across northern Mexico/southern
Arizona. This low will open up and approach West Texas late Sunday
into Monday. As this feature approaches West Central Texas, moisture
will be on the increase. Although the majority of convection will
remain west of our area, isolated showers and thunderstorms will be
possible, mainly west of Sterling City to Mason line. More of the
same is expected on Monday, with the best chance of precipitation
west of a Sterling City to Sonora line. Increased cloud cover will
result in near normal temperatures, with highs Sunday and Monday
generally in the mid 70s to near 80, and overnight lows in the 50s.

Models differences arise for the middle to latter part of next week.
The GFS and ECMWF begin to diverge around Wednesday in the handling
of an upper level trough forecast across the Plains. The GFS
progresses this trough east into the Mississippi Valley, with upper
level ridging building in behind it. The ECMWF has been consistent
in pinching off an upper level low, and slowly moving it south,
across West Central Texas, late Thursday through Saturday. The
forecast was trended closer to the more consistent ECMWF, with
increasing rain chances Wednesday night into Thursday. Uncertainty
remains in the PoP forecast this far out, but rain chances may
eventually need to be increased if the ECMWF solution becomes more
likely. Temperatures from the middle to latter part of the week will
be near normal. Highs will be in the mid 70s to near 80, with
overnight lows in the 50s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  78  54  77  58  80 /   5   0  10  10  10
San Angelo  81  56  78  56  78 /   5   5  20  20  20
Junction  83  58  80  59  80 /  10   5  20  20  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

 600 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOR TONIGHT THRU SUN NIGHT...CLOUD AND
TEMPERATURE TRENDS.

18Z DATA ANALYSIS HAD A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED FROM
WESTERN ONT TO KS. WV IMAGERY SHOWED A RATHER VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE
EXITING THE REGION AND DROPPING INTO THE OH VALLEY. SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND THIS WAVE AND ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW WITH THE SFC-850MB RIDGE
AXIS BUILD EAST WERE CLEARING OUT THE STRATO-CU CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF
WI/EASTERN MN/NORTHEAST IA. WEST OF THE LOWER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS LOW
CLOUDS SLOWER TO MIX/ERODE...APPEARING MORE TRAPPED UNDER A STRONGER
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. WITH A RATHER CHILLY 925MB AIRMASS OVER THE
REGION...TEMPS SLOW TO WARM TODAY EVEN WITH THE SUNSHINE.

NO PROBLEMS NOTED WITH 18.12Z MODEL INITIALIZATIONS. SOLUTIONS VERY
SIMILAR FOR TONIGHT THRU SUN NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS OVER
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...THEN AS HGTS FALL WITH APPROACH/
PASSAGE OF THE NEXT STRONGER SHORTWAVE TOPPING THE WESTERN NOAM
LONGWAVE RIDGE AND DROPPING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SOLUTIONS
FAVOR A COMPROMISE OF THE EARLIER RUNS WITH ECMWF OFFERING THE
BETTER RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY. SHORT-TERM FCST CONFIDENCE IS GOOD
THIS CYCLE.

MODELS STRUGGLING A BIT AS THEY USUALLY DO WITH THE LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE/CLOUDS TRAPPED IN/UNDER INVERSIONS THIS TIME OF YEAR. GFS/
ECMWF LOOKING BETTER WITH THE POST-SHORTWAVE SUBSIDENCE/CLEARING
WORKING SOUTH ACROSS WI/EASTERN MN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE LOWER
CLOUDS MORE PERSISTENT OVER WESTERN MN/IA. AS THE 925MB FLOW BECOMES
MORE SOUTHWEST/WEST AHEAD OF THE LOW/TROUGH MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL
CAN TO THE DAKOTAS...THIS RESIDUAL 925MB MOISTURE/ANY CLOUDS OVER
WESTERN MN/IA WOULD BE ADVECTED INTO/ACROSS THE FCST AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND TIME-HGT X-SECTIONS ALSO SHOWING
PLENTIFUL 400-200MB MOISTURE AND WEAK UPWARD MOTION TO SPREAD ACROSS
THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING MID LEVEL TROUGH.
SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT STARTS TO TIGHTEN OVER THE AREA LATER TONIGHT
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SFC-850MB TROUGH...ALONG WITH MDT/STRONG
925-850MB WARM ADVECTION. RAISED LOWS A BIT TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
WEST OF THE MS RIVER.

STRONGEST OF THE LOWER LEVEL WARM ADVECTION/THERMO-DYNAMIC FORCING
MOVES ACROSS THE FCST AREA SUN MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS/X-SECTIONS
SHOWS THIS LIFT GOING INTO TRYING TO SATURATE THE 850-500MB PORTION
OF THE COLUMN. BETTER SATURATION OF THIS PORTION OF THE COLUMN
OCCURS OVER THE NORTHEAST END OF THE FCST AREA SUN AFTER...WHERE IT
IS THE COOLEST. EVEN THERE SATURATION APPEARS MARGINAL AT BEST FOR
-SHRA...AND REMOVED THE SMALL CHANCES ACROSS CLARK/TAYLOR COUNTIES
WHICH BLENDS WELL WITH NEIGHBORING GRIDS. STRONG DRYING AT/ABOVE
700MB SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA SUN NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH...WITH SOME POST TROUGH CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW AND 925-850MB
MOISTURE TO CLIP THE NORTHEAST END OF THE FCST AREA. MDT LOW LEVEL
COLD ADVECTION TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA LATER SUN NIGHT...ALONG
WITH A MODEST SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT FOR SOME WINDS/BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXING AND WARMER LOWS. GENERALLY FAVORED WARMER OF GUIDANCE LOWS
TONIGHT THEN A BLEND OF HIGHS/LOWS SUN/SUN NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOR MON THRU TUE NIGHT...TEMPERATURES AND
CLOUDS.

18.12Z MODELS IN GOOD AND IMPROVING AGREEMENT FOR RIDGING TO BUILD
EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST DURING
THE MON THRU TUE NIGHT PERIOD. TREND FAVORS A COMPROMISE OF THE
EARLIER RUNS. FCST CONFIDENCE IN THIS PERIOD IS GOOD THIS CYCLE.

MON THRU TUE NIGHT CONTINUES TO SHAPE UP AS A DRY/QUIET PERIOD AS
THE RISING HGTS/RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND SFC
HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS NEAR/OVER THE REGION. SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/
CLOUDS BEHIND THE LOW DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
LINGER OVER THE NORTHEAST END OF THE FCST AREA MON. BIT OF A BACK-
DOOR COLD FRONT AND NORTHEAST FLOW AROUND THE SFC-850MB RIDGING
NORTH OF LK SUPERIOR TRIES TO PUSH SOME LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS
WEST/SOUTH INTO THE FCST AREA LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT. PER THE
MODEL ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS...LEFT MON NIGHT THRU TUE NIGHT MOSTLY
CLEAR FOR NOW. AREA UNDER WEAK LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION MON THRU TUE
NIGHT IN THE EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW AROUND THE RIDGING NORTH OF LK
SUPERIOR. 925MB TEMPS IN THE 5C TO 12C RANGE MON AFTERNOON AND 4C TO
7C RANGE TUE AFTERNOON. CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
UNDER THE DRIER CAN HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD ALLOW FOR LARGER DIURNAL
TEMP SWINGS EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS MON/TUE LOOKING TO BE NEAR/ABOVE
NORMAL WHILE LOWS MON/TUE NIGHTS APPEAR NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL. BLEND
OF THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HIGHS/LOWS FOR MON THRU TUE NIGHT LOOK TO
HAVE THIS WELL TRENDED.

FOR WED THROUGH SAT.../DAYS 4 TO 7/...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SMALL -SHRA CHANCE CENTERED ON
THU...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS OF 18.00Z/18.12Z SHOW IMPROVING AGREEMENT
FOR RIDGING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WED WITH A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH TO BE LIFTING INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS. PLENTY OF
DETAIL DIFFERENCES WITH THIS TROUGH BY THU AS IT MOVES INTO/ACROSS
THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY BUT TREND REMAINS WEAKENING OF THIS FEATURE
AS IT MOVES THRU THE RIDGE AXIS. STRONG CONSENSUS FOR RISING HGTS/
RIDGING OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS FRI. 18.12Z GFS/ECMWF IN BETTER
AGREEMENT ON SAT VS. 18.00Z RUNS...ON AMOUNT OF RIDGING ALOFT OVER
THE REGION. 18.00Z ECMWF WAS A STRONGER/FASTER OUTLIER WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO DROP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. ITS LATEST RUN HAS
TRENDED MORE TOWARD THE GFS...HOLDING MORE RIDGING ALOFT/HIGHER HGTS
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST ON DAY 7. FAVORED A MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS
WITH AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN THE DAY 4-7 PERIOD.

MODIFYING CAN HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS OVER THE AREA WED. AREA ON THE
WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH FOR SOME INCREASE OF SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOW
LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE PLAINS LOW/SHORTWAVE. SOME LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA HOWEVER 925MB TEMPS ONLY IN THE
+7C TO +10C RANGE BY 00Z THU...FOR HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID-UPPER
50S. WEAKENING MID LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES INTO/ACROSS THE REGION LATE
WED NIGHT THRU THU EVENING. NOT MUCH FOR A SFC-850MB REFLECTION OF
THIS TROUGH. DISJOINTED LOWER LEVEL THERMO-DYNAMIC FORCING SIGNAL A
BEST BUT PW VALUES PROGGED INTO THE 0.75 TO 1 INCH RANGE WITH THE
TROUGH. SMALL -SHRA CHANCE FOR MUCH OF THE FCST AREA WED NIGHT/THU
FINE FOR NOW UNTIL THE DETAILS SORT THEMSELVES OUT. WITH REBUILDING
HGTS/RIDGING FRI...LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION QUICKLY SPREADS ACROSS
THE AREA FROM THE WEST. 925MB TEMPS IN THE 10C TO 15C RANGE FOR FRI
AFTERNOON AND SAT. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH WESTERLY GRADIENT FLOW
THERE IS FOR MIXING...CONSENSUS HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 60S FRI AND
UPPER 50S-LOW 60S SAT MAY BE 5F TO 10F TOO COOL. STAYED WITH THE
MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS HIGHS/LOWS IN DAY 4-7 GOOD FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1134 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

BAND OF APPROX 2 KFT MVFR CIGS HAVE PERSISTED ACROSS WESTERN MN
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT HAS BEEN SHOWING DIMINISHING TRENDS. SOME
INITIAL CONCERN THAT SOME OF THESE CLOUDS COULD ADVECT EAST TOWARD
KRST/KLSE AS WINDS VEER TONIGHT. RAP RH FIELDS AND SATELLITE TRENDS
SUGGEST ANY LINGERING LOW CLOUD SHOULD STAY NORTH - AND WILL STICK
WITH THIS FOR THE FORECAST.

LIGHT SFC/NEAR SFC WIND FIELD WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD SUGGESTS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR RIVER VALLEY FOG. T/TD SPREAD WAS XX F AT
23Z...BUT THIS CAN BE OVERCOME. HOWEVER...THERE ARE A COUPLE
DRAWBACKS. FIRST IS THE HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING FOR THE WINDS RIGHT ABOVE THE NOCTURNAL
INVERSION TO INCREASE. THE SECOND IS HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING IN
FROM THE WEST...AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THIS TIME...THINK THE CLOUDS WILL BE A
BIT TARDY TO IMPACT FOG POTENTIAL AT KLSE...LEAVING THE INCREASING
WINDS AS THE MAIN DETERRENT. THINK SOME THIN BR/STRATUS WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE RIVER...BUT MAY NOT SPREAD OUTSIDE OF ITS BANKS. WILL KEEP
KLSE FOG FREE FOR NOW...BUT IT WILL NEED MONITORING.

HIGH/MID LEVEL CIGS FOR A PORTION OR THE DAY SUNDAY...WITH
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS BY MID MORNING. EXPECT A FEW HIGHER
GUSTS...WITH SUSTAINED AROUND 15KTS OR SO. WINDS WILL BECOME
WESTERLY SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE/S SURFACE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. NOT EXPECTING ANY PCPN.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION.....RIECK




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

 1134 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 237 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

OVERALL A VERY QUIET WEEK SETTING UP ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. 18.00Z GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
23.00Z...DIVERGING THEREAFTER WITH THE SPEED AND LOCATION OF A MID-
WEEK EASTERN PACIFIC SHORT-WAVE. WILL USE A BLENDED MODEL SOLUTION
FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

FOR TODAY...THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
WILL MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND ALLOWING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY MID-
LATE AFTERNOON. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW
TO DISSIPATE THIS MORNING...BUT BOTH THE RAP AND HRRR HIGH
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SHOW CLEARING SKIES BY LATE AFTERNOON. AS A
RESULT...DELAYED CLEARING IN THE SKY GRIDS THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS BY 19.00Z. TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.

SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES QUICKLY TO THE EAST. DESPITE CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND WITH NEAR SURFACE WINDS FROM 10 TO
15 KTS...DO NOT EXPECT SIGNIFICANT VALLEY FOG FORMATION. LACK OF
CLOUD COVER AND OVERALL DRY AIR MASS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

500 TO 300 HPA PV ADVECTION INCREASES ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORT-WAVE. MOISTURE RATHER LIMITED ALONG MID-
LEVEL WARM FRONT WITH BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FARTHER NORTH
CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW RIDING ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION ACROSS TAYLOR/CLARK COUNTIES...
BUT EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY...
BUT WITH INCREASING THERMAL PROFILE...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO
THE UPPER 5OS TO LOWER 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE BY
AFTERNOON...GUSTING AT TIMES TO 25 MPH.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS SLOWLY ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. RIDGE AXIS
CUTS RIGHT DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 21.12Z (TUESDAY
MORNING)...SO FOG POTENTIAL IS HIGHER...BUT CERTAINTY NOT GREAT
ENOUGH TO MENTION IN CURRENT FORECAST. LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY VARIATION
IN TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN
THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

BY THURSDAY...THE ECMWF RAPIDLY BREAKS DOWN THE 500 HPA RIDGE
ALLOWING THE NEXT SHORT-WAVE TO CRUISE ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING
A QUICK SHOT OF RAIN. THE GFS...HOWEVER MAINTAINS THE RIDGE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...SLOWING THE WAVE/S EASTWARD PROGRESS AND
KEEPING RAIN WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT. THE
GFS SOLUTION ALSO WEAKENS THE WAVE RESULTING IN LESS RAINFALL. FOR
NOW...WILL KEEP LOW-END POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. HEIGHTS RISE THURSDAY...ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO REACH BACK INTO THE LOWER 60S. BY FRIDAY...
850 HPA TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM +12 TO +15 C WHICH SHOULD RESULT
IN SURFACE VALUES INTO THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1134 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

DAYTIME MIXING PLUS DRIER AIR FLOWING SOUTH OUT OF ONTARIO HAS
HELPED BREAK UP THE MVFR STRATUS NEAR AND JUST NORTH OF THE TAF
SITES. EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT SHORTLY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES ACROSS. INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW LATE
TONIGHT...COMBINED WITH INCREASING CIRRUS CLOUD COVER...SHOULD
HELP PRECLUDE ANY VALLEY FOG FORMATION. HOWEVER...THERE IS CONCERN
THAT ANY LEFTOVER MVFR STRATUS CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS/WESTERN MN MAY ADVECT BACK INTO THE TAF SITES AS THE WINDS
VEER. HAVE ALLUDED TO THIS POSSIBILITY WITH A SCT MVFR DECK.
REGARDING THE AFOREMENTIONED WINDS...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
GUSTINESS IS ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...AROUND 18Z SUNDAY...RST AND
LSE COULD GUST IN THE 15-25 KT RANGE...HIGHEST AT RST.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS
AVIATION...AJ