Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 10/17/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RENO NV
1053 AM PDT WED OCT 15 2014
.UPDATE...
OBSERVATIONS FROM AROUND THE REGION SHOW WINDS DECREASING. THIS IS
IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OVER THE AREA WHICH
WILL BRING COOLER AIR AND LESS WIND ALOFT INTO THE REGION. THE
COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL HELP INCREASE INSTABILITY AND DECREASE THE
LIKELIHOOD FOR ANY DOWNSLOPE ENHANCEMENT EAST OF THE SIERRA. BUT
DRIER AIR WILL ALSO BEGIN WORKING INTO THE REGION WHICH WILL CAUSE
A DECREASE IN SHOWERS EVEN AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES A LITTLE MORE
UNSTABLE.
OVERALL...WIND GUSTS IN WIND PRONE AREAS MAY CONTINUE TO REACH
ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR A FEW HOURS...BUT THESE WILL NOT BE
WIDESPREAD. WILL ALLOW THE WIND ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AND WILL HOIST
LAKE WIND ADVISORIES FOR TAHOE AND PYRAMID THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
PYRAMID MAY DROP FASTER THAN TAHOE AND THESE WILL BE REVISITED
WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST. WILL INCREASE POPS JUST SLIGHTLY FOR
THE WEST SIDE OF THE TAHOE BASIN AS UP SLOPE ENHANCEMENT GETS INTO
THAT AREA AND PRODUCES A FEW MORE SHOWERS. 20
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 AM PDT WED OCT 15 2014/
UPDATE...
WINDS ARE DIMINISHING ACROSS THE RENO-TAHOE AREA, GUSTS HAVE
DROPPED OFF TO LESS THAN 45 MPH AROUND RENO-TAHOE OUTSIDE OF A
FEW FOOTHILL LOCATIONS ALONG HIGHWAY 395. BOATERS ON TAHOE AND
PYRAMID WILL WANT TO USE CAUTION TODAY. EVEN AS WINDS DIMINISH
WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY WITH CHOPPY TO ROUGH LAKE WATERS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. FARTHER SOUTH GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH ARE OCCURRING IN
MONO COUNTY.
RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW HAS BEEN FOCUSED FROM I-80 AT DONNER
SUMMIT NORTHWARD TO PLUMAS AND LASSEN COUNTIES, WHERE RAINFALL
TOTALS UP TO 0.25 INCH HAVE BEEN REPORTED SO FAR THIS MORNING.
PROFILERS AND RADAR DATA SUGGEST SNOW LEVELS ARE AS LOW AS
6500-7000 FEET IN WESTERN LASSEN COUNTY, WHILE SNOW LEVELS
ELSEWHERE ARE AT 7000-8000 FEET. A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY
OCCUR ALONG THE SIERRA CREST BETWEEN DONNER SUMMIT AND CARSON
PASS, BUT ROAD TEMPERATURES ARE TOO HIGH TO ALLOW SNOW TO STICK TO
PAVED SURFACES. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH BY 10AM AS THE LOW LIFTS
INTO SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO. BRONG
SYNOPSIS...
STRONG WINDS WILL END THIS MORNING AS A COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS
WESTERN NEVADA, BUT BRISK WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. SCATTERED RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 THIS MORNING. DRY AND
WARM CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND. STRONG WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE WEST COAST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 AM PDT WED OCT 15 2014/
SHORT TERM...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS HAS REACHED THE WEST COAST WITH
INCREASING INSTABILITY LEADING TO DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWER BANDS
AND ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. LATEST
GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE HRRR MODEL SPREAD THESE BANDS OF SHOWERS
INTO NORTHEAST CA AND NORTHWEST NV AFTER 4 AM AND CONTINUING
THROUGH 9 AM. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE SPOTTY BUT BRIEF BURSTS OF
HEAVIER RAIN COULD BRING A QUICK 0.10 INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL
FROM WESTERN LASSEN COUNTY SOUTHWARD TO NEAR TRUCKEE AND THE
CALIFORNIA SIDE OF THE TAHOE BASIN. PARTS OF THE SURPRISE VALLEY
AND NORTHWEST NV MAY RECEIVE UP TO 0.10 INCH OR RAINFALL.
SNOW LEVELS THIS MORNING SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE 6500-7000 FOOT
RANGE NORTH AND WEST OF PORTOLA, AND AROUND 7500 FEET ALONG THE
SIERRA CREST WEST OF TAHOE. HOWEVER, IF A HEAVIER SHOWER PASSES
OVER SOME OF THE SIERRA PASSES INCLUDING YUBA, DONNER AND ECHO
SUMMITS, WET SNOW MAY BRIEFLY MIX IN BUT ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT
EXPECTED ON ROADS.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF WESTERN NEVADA, SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MAY BLOW
INTO THE FOOTHILLS AROUND RENO AND CARSON CITY. MEANWHILE, THE
ACTIVITY OVER NORTHWEST NV WEAKENS AS IT MOVES ACROSS PERSHING
COUNTY NORTH OF LOVELOCK. BY THIS AFTERNOON, VERY LITTLE
PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE VERY MUCH THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO COLD
AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT, AND WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER OVER
MOST OF THE REGION.
AS FOR THE WIND EVENT, STRONG GUSTS WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS AS THE RIDGE WINDS MIX DOWN INTO THE LEE SIDE VALLEYS.
GUSTS BRIEFLY EDGING INTO HIGH WIND CRITERIA ARE STILL POSSIBLE
IN THE ADVISORY AREAS THROUGH 6 AM. WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON
SHOULD STAY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT REMAIN BRISK WITH GUSTS
IN THE 30-40 MPH RANGE BEFORE DIMINISHING BY EARLY EVENING.
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL SPREAD AREAS OF
MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVERHEAD WHICH SHOULD LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING,
AND PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING BELOW FREEZING AT NIGHT IN
AREAS WHICH HAVE YET TO SEE A FREEZE SO FAR THIS FALL. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-UPPER 60S, THEN EDGE UPWARD BY A
FEW DEGREES ON FRIDAY. THESE HIGHS ARE ASSUMING CLOUD COVER WILL
PARTIALLY OBSCURE THE SUN DURING EACH AFTERNOON.
A SPLITTING TROUGH REACHING THE SIERRA LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT MAY PRODUCE A FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS IN NORTHEAST CA AND FAR
NORTHWEST NV, BUT LATEST TRENDS ARE SHOWING A DIMINISHING RAIN
POTENTIAL WITH THIS TROUGH. MJD
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND. DEEP
TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC ALONG 140W WITH A RIDGE OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AS A JET DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PACIFIC ALONG 45N. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW MOISTURE AND ENERGY FROM THE TROUGH TO REACH THE SIERRA AND
WESTERN NEVADA BY MONDAY.
FOR THE WEEKEND, CONDITIONS WILL BE WARM AND DRY WITH LIGHT WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW 70S FOR THE NEVADA VALLEYS WITH 60S
FOR THE SIERRA.
WINDS ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE MONDAY AS THE TROUGH REACHES THE
WEST COAST, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG WIND EVENT. PEAK GUSTS
COULD REACH 40-50 MPH WITH 60+ MPH IN WIND PRONE LOCATIONS ALONG
HIGHWAY 395. AS USUAL WITH STRONG WIND EVENTS, MAIN IMPACTS ARE TO
TRAVEL, AVIATION, BOATING AND FIRE WEATHER. MODELS DIFFER ON HOW
MUCH MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN SIERRA, BUT THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS OR LIGHT RAIN FROM
THE WEST SHORE OF TAHOE NORTHWARD TO LASSEN COUNTY.
A SECOND WAVE MAY REACH THE AREA FOR TUESDAY, BUT THE DIFFERENCES IN
THE MODELS ARE TOO GREAT TO HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE IN ANY POTENTIAL
FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. BRONG
AVIATION...
STRONG WIND EVENT AT KRNO WILL BEGIN TO EASE UP EARLY THIS MORNING
AS THE JET ENERGY AND COLD FRONT PASS THROUGH WESTERN NEVADA. WINDS
WILL WEAKEN AS THEY SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST, BUT GUSTS AS
HIGH AS 30 KTS MAY PERSIST THROUGH 03Z THIS EVENING.
LIGHT RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW WILL MOVE ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF
KTRK-KLOL THIS MORNING. IN THE NORTHERN SIERRA TO WESTERN LASSEN
COUNTY, MVFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCUREMENTS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH 18Z.
SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST FOR THE WEEKEND. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT THURSDAY TO SUNDAY. A STRONG WIND EVENT IS POSSIBLE
MONDAY AS THE NEXT TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WEST COAST. BRONG
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR PYRAMID
LAKE IN NVZ004.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAKE TAHOE
IN NVZ002.
CA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAKE TAHOE
IN CAZ072.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RENO NV
633 AM PDT WED OCT 15 2014
.UPDATE...
WINDS ARE DIMINISHING ACROSS THE RENO-TAHOE AREA, GUSTS HAVE
DROPPED OFF TO LESS THAN 45 MPH AROUND RENO-TAHOE OUTSIDE OF A
FEW FOOTHILL LOCATIONS ALONG HIGHWAY 395. BOATERS ON TAHOE AND
PYRAMID WILL WANT TO USE CAUTION TODAY. EVEN AS WINDS DIMINISH
WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY WITH CHOPPY TO ROUGH LAKE WATERS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. FARTHER SOUTH GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH ARE OCCURRING IN
MONO COUNTY.
RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW HAS BEEN FOCUSED FROM I-80 AT DONNER
SUMMIT NORTHWARD TO PLUMAS AND LASSEN COUNTIES, WHERE RAINFALL
TOTALS UP TO 0.25 INCH HAVE BEEN REPORTED SO FAR THIS MORNING.
PROFILERS AND RADAR DATA SUGGEST SNOW LEVELS ARE AS LOW AS
6500-7000 FEET IN WESTERN LASSEN COUNTY, WHILE SNOW LEVELS
ELSEWHERE ARE AT 7000-8000 FEET. A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY
OCCUR ALONG THE SIERRA CREST BETWEEN DONNER SUMMIT AND CARSON
PASS, BUT ROAD TEMPERATURES ARE TOO HIGH TO ALLOW SNOW TO STICK TO
PAVED SURFACES. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH BY 10AM AS THE LOW LIFTS
INTO SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO. BRONG
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG WINDS WILL END THIS MORNING AS A COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS
WESTERN NEVADA, BUT BRISK WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. SCATTERED RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 THIS MORNING. DRY AND
WARM CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND. STRONG WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE WEST COAST.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 AM PDT WED OCT 15 2014/
SHORT TERM...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS HAS REACHED THE WEST COAST WITH
INCREASING INSTABILITY LEADING TO DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWER BANDS
AND ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. LATEST
GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE HRRR MODEL SPREAD THESE BANDS OF SHOWERS
INTO NORTHEAST CA AND NORTHWEST NV AFTER 4 AM AND CONTINUING
THROUGH 9 AM. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE SPOTTY BUT BRIEF BURSTS OF
HEAVIER RAIN COULD BRING A QUICK 0.10 INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL
FROM WESTERN LASSEN COUNTY SOUTHWARD TO NEAR TRUCKEE AND THE
CALIFORNIA SIDE OF THE TAHOE BASIN. PARTS OF THE SURPRISE VALLEY
AND NORTHWEST NV MAY RECEIVE UP TO 0.10 INCH OR RAINFALL.
SNOW LEVELS THIS MORNING SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE 6500-7000 FOOT
RANGE NORTH AND WEST OF PORTOLA, AND AROUND 7500 FEET ALONG THE
SIERRA CREST WEST OF TAHOE. HOWEVER, IF A HEAVIER SHOWER PASSES
OVER SOME OF THE SIERRA PASSES INCLUDING YUBA, DONNER AND ECHO
SUMMITS, WET SNOW MAY BRIEFLY MIX IN BUT ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT
EXPECTED ON ROADS.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF WESTERN NEVADA, SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MAY BLOW
INTO THE FOOTHILLS AROUND RENO AND CARSON CITY. MEANWHILE, THE
ACTIVITY OVER NORTHWEST NV WEAKENS AS IT MOVES ACROSS PERSHING
COUNTY NORTH OF LOVELOCK. BY THIS AFTERNOON, VERY LITTLE
PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE VERY MUCH THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO COLD
AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT, AND WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER OVER
MOST OF THE REGION.
AS FOR THE WIND EVENT, STRONG GUSTS WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS AS THE RIDGE WINDS MIX DOWN INTO THE LEE SIDE VALLEYS.
GUSTS BRIEFLY EDGING INTO HIGH WIND CRITERIA ARE STILL POSSIBLE
IN THE ADVISORY AREAS THROUGH 6 AM. WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON
SHOULD STAY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT REMAIN BRISK WITH GUSTS
IN THE 30-40 MPH RANGE BEFORE DIMINISHING BY EARLY EVENING.
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL SPREAD AREAS OF
MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVERHEAD WHICH SHOULD LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING,
AND PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING BELOW FREEZING AT NIGHT IN
AREAS WHICH HAVE YET TO SEE A FREEZE SO FAR THIS FALL. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-UPPER 60S, THEN EDGE UPWARD BY A
FEW DEGREES ON FRIDAY. THESE HIGHS ARE ASSUMING CLOUD COVER WILL
PARTIALLY OBSCURE THE SUN DURING EACH AFTERNOON.
A SPLITTING TROUGH REACHING THE SIERRA LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT MAY PRODUCE A FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS IN NORTHEAST CA AND FAR
NORTHWEST NV, BUT LATEST TRENDS ARE SHOWING A DIMINISHING RAIN
POTENTIAL WITH THIS TROUGH. MJD
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND. DEEP
TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC ALONG 140W WITH A RIDGE OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AS A JET DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PACIFIC ALONG 45N. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW MOISTURE AND ENERGY FROM THE TROUGH TO REACH THE SIERRA AND
WESTERN NEVADA BY MONDAY.
FOR THE WEEKEND, CONDITIONS WILL BE WARM AND DRY WITH LIGHT WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW 70S FOR THE NEVADA VALLEYS WITH 60S
FOR THE SIERRA.
WINDS ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE MONDAY AS THE TROUGH REACHES THE
WEST COAST, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG WIND EVENT. PEAK GUSTS
COULD REACH 40-50 MPH WITH 60+ MPH IN WIND PRONE LOCATIONS ALONG
HIGHWAY 395. AS USUAL WITH STRONG WIND EVENTS, MAIN IMPACTS ARE TO
TRAVEL, AVIATION, BOATING AND FIRE WEATHER. MODELS DIFFER ON HOW
MUCH MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN SIERRA, BUT THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS OR LIGHT RAIN FROM
THE WEST SHORE OF TAHOE NORTHWARD TO LASSEN COUNTY.
A SECOND WAVE MAY REACH THE AREA FOR TUESDAY, BUT THE DIFFERENCES IN
THE MODELS ARE TOO GREAT TO HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE IN ANY POTENTIAL
FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. BRONG
AVIATION...
STRONG WIND EVENT AT KRNO WILL BEGIN TO EASE UP EARLY THIS MORNING
AS THE JET ENERGY AND COLD FRONT PASS THROUGH WESTERN NEVADA. WINDS
WILL WEAKEN AS THEY SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST, BUT GUSTS AS
HIGH AS 30 KTS MAY PERSIST THROUGH 03Z THIS EVENING.
LIGHT RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW WILL MOVE ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF
KTRK-KLOL THIS MORNING. IN THE NORTHERN SIERRA TO WESTERN LASSEN
COUNTY, MVFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCUREMENTS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH 18Z.
SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST FOR THE WEEKEND. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT THURSDAY TO SUNDAY. A STRONG WIND EVENT IS POSSIBLE
MONDAY AS THE NEXT TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WEST COAST. BRONG
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING NVZ002-003.
CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING CAZ072-073.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RENO NV
307 AM PDT WED OCT 15 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG WINDS WILL END THIS MORNING AS A COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS
WESTERN NEVADA, BUT BRISK WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. SCATTERED RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 THIS MORNING. DRY AND
WARM CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND. STRONG WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE WEST COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS HAS REACHED THE WEST COAST WITH
INCREASING INSTABILITY LEADING TO DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWER BANDS
AND ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. LATEST
GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE HRRR MODEL SPREAD THESE BANDS OF SHOWERS
INTO NORTHEAST CA AND NORTHWEST NV AFTER 4 AM AND CONTINUING
THROUGH 9 AM. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE SPOTTY BUT BRIEF BURSTS OF
HEAVIER RAIN COULD BRING A QUICK 0.10 INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL
FROM WESTERN LASSEN COUNTY SOUTHWARD TO NEAR TRUCKEE AND THE
CALIFORNIA SIDE OF THE TAHOE BASIN. PARTS OF THE SURPRISE VALLEY
AND NORTHWEST NV MAY RECEIVE UP TO 0.10 INCH OR RAINFALL.
SNOW LEVELS THIS MORNING SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE 6500-7000 FOOT
RANGE NORTH AND WEST OF PORTOLA, AND AROUND 7500 FEET ALONG THE
SIERRA CREST WEST OF TAHOE. HOWEVER, IF A HEAVIER SHOWER PASSES
OVER SOME OF THE SIERRA PASSES INCLUDING YUBA, DONNER AND ECHO
SUMMITS, WET SNOW MAY BRIEFLY MIX IN BUT ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT
EXPECTED ON ROADS.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF WESTERN NEVADA, SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MAY BLOW
INTO THE FOOTHILLS AROUND RENO AND CARSON CITY. MEANWHILE, THE
ACTIVITY OVER NORTHWEST NV WEAKENS AS IT MOVES ACROSS PERSHING
COUNTY NORTH OF LOVELOCK. BY THIS AFTERNOON, VERY LITTLE
PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE VERY MUCH THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO COLD
AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT, AND WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER OVER
MOST OF THE REGION.
AS FOR THE WIND EVENT, STRONG GUSTS WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS AS THE RIDGE WINDS MIX DOWN INTO THE LEE SIDE VALLEYS.
GUSTS BRIEFLY EDGING INTO HIGH WIND CRITERIA ARE STILL POSSIBLE
IN THE ADVISORY AREAS THROUGH 6 AM. WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON
SHOULD STAY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT REMAIN BRISK WITH GUSTS
IN THE 30-40 MPH RANGE BEFORE DIMINISHING BY EARLY EVENING.
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL SPREAD AREAS OF
MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVERHEAD WHICH SHOULD LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING,
AND PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING BELOW FREEZING AT NIGHT IN
AREAS WHICH HAVE YET TO SEE A FREEZE SO FAR THIS FALL. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-UPPER 60S, THEN EDGE UPWARD BY A
FEW DEGREES ON FRIDAY. THESE HIGHS ARE ASSUMING CLOUD COVER WILL
PARTIALLY OBSCURE THE SUN DURING EACH AFTERNOON.
A SPLITTING TROUGH REACHING THE SIERRA LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT MAY PRODUCE A FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS IN NORTHEAST CA AND FAR
NORTHWEST NV, BUT LATEST TRENDS ARE SHOWING A DIMINISHING RAIN
POTENTIAL WITH THIS TROUGH. MJD
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND. DEEP
TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC ALONG 140W WITH A RIDGE OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AS A JET DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PACIFIC ALONG 45N. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW MOISTURE AND ENERGY FROM THE TROUGH TO REACH THE SIERRA AND
WESTERN NEVADA BY MONDAY.
FOR THE WEEKEND, CONDITIONS WILL BE WARM AND DRY WITH LIGHT WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW 70S FOR THE NEVADA VALLEYS WITH 60S
FOR THE SIERRA.
WINDS ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE MONDAY AS THE TROUGH REACHES THE
WEST COAST, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG WIND EVENT. PEAK GUSTS
COULD REACH 40-50 MPH WITH 60+ MPH IN WIND PRONE LOCATIONS ALONG
HIGHWAY 395. AS USUAL WITH STRONG WIND EVENTS, MAIN IMPACTS ARE TO
TRAVEL, AVIATION, BOATING AND FIRE WEATHER. MODELS DIFFER ON HOW
MUCH MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN SIERRA, BUT THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS OR LIGHT RAIN FROM
THE WEST SHORE OF TAHOE NORTHWARD TO LASSEN COUNTY.
A SECOND WAVE MAY REACH THE AREA FOR TUESDAY, BUT THE DIFFERENCES IN
THE MODELS ARE TOO GREAT TO HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE IN ANY POTENTIAL
FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. BRONG
&&
.AVIATION...
STRONG WIND EVENT AT KRNO WILL BEGIN TO EASE UP EARLY THIS MORNING
AS THE JET ENERGY AND COLD FRONT PASS THROUGH WESTERN NEVADA. WINDS
WILL WEAKEN AS THEY SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST, BUT GUSTS AS
HIGH AS 30 KTS MAY PERSIST THROUGH 03Z THIS EVENING.
LIGHT RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW WILL MOVE ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF
KTRK-KLOL THIS MORNING. IN THE NORTHERN SIERRA TO WESTERN LASSEN
COUNTY, MVFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCUREMENTS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH 18Z.
SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST FOR THE WEEKEND. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT THURSDAY TO SUNDAY. A STRONG WIND EVENT IS POSSIBLE
MONDAY AS THE NEXT TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WEST COAST. BRONG
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING NVZ002-003.
CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING CAZ072-073.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
741 PM EDT THU OCT 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT THU OCT 16 2014
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS EVENING...PRIMARILY
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN...FAR NORTHEAST INDIANA AND IN
NORTHWEST OHIO. THEREAFTER EXPECT VARIABLE...BUT GENERALLY MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE NIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING TO AROUND 50. FOR
FRIDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BRING A BIT WARMER
TEMPERATURES THAN SEEN THURSDAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REACH THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP BY LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN...AS AN UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM REACHES THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT THU OCT 16 2014
WEAK/SHALLOW CONVECTION WITH ISOLD SHRA EASTERN HALF TO LIFT OUT/END
AS CYCLONIC FLOW LOW LEVEL FLOW CENTERED IN FAR SWRN ONTARIO BEGINS
NORTHWARD LIFT THIS EVENING/COINCIDENT WITH INCREASING 0-2KM
STABILITY. CONCERN LATER TONIGHT REVOLVES AROUND STRATUS
REFORMATION/FILL-IN AS ELEVATED 2KFT FLOW BEGINS TO RAMP TO 40 KTS
ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA AFTER 06 UTC. GIVEN EXTENSIVE COVERAGE AND
MEAGER LIFTING OF BASES OF CU FIELD THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL AS
SURFACE RIDGELINE STILL UPSTREAM /ERN WI SWD INTO WRN TN/...WILL
SIDE A BIT MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH CLOUD COVERAGE AND TOWARD WARMER
SIDE OF GUIDANCE BLEND...THOUGH CONCEDE CONFIDENCE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO SUCCINCT/POTENT UPSTREAM WAVE OVER EASTERN
ND AND CONTINUED EASTWARD SLIDE INTO CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY MIDDAY
FRI AND TO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN BY 21 UTC. NORTHERN HALF CWA IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY OF STRONG HEIGHT FALL CENTROID...WITH GENERALLY
60-90M/12 HR FALLS SKIRTING NORTHERN CWA. ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE AND
HIGH NEAR SURFACE CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS SHOULD PROVIDE DRY
WX FOR ALL BUT FAR NORTHWEST/NORTHERN CWA THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THOUGH AS DEEPER CAA BEGINS TO SETTLE IN NWRN CWA BY LATE
AFTERNOON RAMPED POPS 21-24 UTC TIMEFRAME WITH LAKE/8H
DIFFERENTIALS BEGINNING TO RAMP/REACHING LOWER 20C RANGE BY
SHORT/LONG TERM TIMEFRAME CROSSOVER. CONTINUED SIMILAR TO PRIOR
FORECAST TOWARD HIGHER SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH EXPECTATION OF
MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON INSOLATION WITHIN INCREASINGLY DEEPER MIXED
BLYR WITH WESTERN FRINGE OF THERMAL TONGUE OVER SERN CWA.
&&
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT THU OCT 16 2014
SEPARATE PV ANOMALIES / ONE COMPACT OVER NORTH DAKOTA AND ANOTHER
BAROTROPIC LOW CENTERED NEAR LAKE HURON PER AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR /
WILL PHASE OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL
PLACE THE LOCAL AREA WITHIN A COOL/PERTURBED NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME
UNDER THE RESULTING NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY. A SERIES OF SMALLER
SCALE VORTS WITH PASSAGE OF THE MAIN MID LEVEL TROUGH...AND STRONG
LOW LEVEL CAA/LAKE ACTIVATION IN VEERED NWRLY FLOW...WILL BRING
CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR A FEW SHOWERS/SPRINKLES TO THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. DECENT LOW LEVEL HEIGHT GRADIENT ON SW
PERIPHERY OF CONSOLIDATED SOUTHEAST CANADA LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SHOULD SUPPORT GUSTS 20-30 MPH ON SATURDAY...WITH WHEN COMBINED WITH
TEMPS IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S WILL RESULT IN A RATHER RAW/CHILLY
SATURDAY. SUNDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE BETTER WEEKEND DAY
BEFORE THE NEXT MORE PRONOUNCED CLIPPER-LIKE SHORTWAVE DROPS IN
AROUND MONDAY. LAST SEVERAL MODEL CYCLES OVERALL HAVE TRENDED
FARTHER NORTH WITH THIS FEATURE AND ITS LIGHT WAA PCPN RESULTING IN
A SLIGHT DECREASE IN POPS LOCALLY. OTHERWISE...THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK (TUE-THU) APPEARS DRY/COOL (NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW) IN BETWEEN A
MID ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST CUT-OFF LOW AND AMPLIFYING CENTRAL CONUS
RIDGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 741 PM EDT THU OCT 16 2014
VFR CONDS GIVING WAY TO MVFR CIGS THIS EVENING AS LAST RESIDUAL BAND
OF LL MSTR TRAPPED BENEATH SHALLOW POST FNTL INVERSION WRAPPING EWD
OUT OF NE IL. HWVR W/EWD PROGRESSION OF LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING AND
INCREASING LL WAA DOUBT WRN EDGE OF MVFR STRATOCU DECK WILL MIX OUT
OVERNIGHT AND WILL LIKELY HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL WELL AFT SUNRISE FRI.
AS SUCH AND IN LIGHT OF LATEST RAP INTERATION ALG W/18Z HIGHRES
GUIDANCE...DROPPED PRIOR LLWS MENTION W/STGR H85 FLW HOLDING OFF
UNTIL AFT DAYBREAK.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...T
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1135 PM MDT TUE OCT 14 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 111 PM MDT TUE OCT 14 2014
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW BLOCKY
RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN ACROSS THE US...WITH AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER
THE WESTER US THE DOMINATE FEATURE FOR OUR CWA. AT THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IS IN PLACE OVER OUR CWA WITH A WEAK LEE TROUGH BEGINNING
TO DEVELOP OVER COLORADO.
DUE TO THE STRONG RIDGE KEEPING CONDITIONS CLEAR AND DRY ACROSS OUR
CWA...PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS ON MODERATING TEMPS AND
POTENTIAL FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY.
SOUTHERLY GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO TIGHTEN AS LEE TROUGH CONTINUES TO
DEEPEN WEDNESDAY...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING AROUND 25 MPH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPS SHOULD WARM TO THE UPPER
70S...POSSIBLY THE LOWER 80S. MODELS ARE TENDING TO ADVECT HIGHER
TD VALUES NORTH WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW...HOWEVER IT APPEARS THE
BETTER MOISTURE SHOULD BE CUT OFF TO THE SOUTH AT LEAST THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE AFTERNOON. MIXING HEIGHTS ARE SOMEWHAT LIMITED
BY ELEVATED INVERSION...HOWEVER WE SHOULD STILL SEE TD VALUES MIX
TO THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S IN THE WEST. RESULT WOULD BE RH VALUES
RIGHT ABOVE 15 PERCENT. AFTER COORDINATION WITH PARTNERS CURRENT
FUELS SHOULD SUPPORT EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH FOR ALL OF OUR CWA
EXCEPT FOR GREELEY AND WICHITA COUNTIES. CONDITIONS WILL BE
CLOSE TO CRITERIA...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN A 3HR CROSSOVER OF
WIND/RH IS LOW SO A RED FLAG WARNING IS PLANNED DURING THIS UPDATE
WEDNESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 PM MDT TUE OCT 14 2014
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD IS NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY. A BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN FOR
THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD SHALL LEAD TO LITTLE TO NO HAZARDOUS
WEATHER THROUGHOUT.
BEGINNING WITH THURSDAY...A STRONG...FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PASSES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS TROUGH ALSO FORCES A WEAK COLD
FRONT THROUGH. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS TROUGH SHALL BE A SLIGHT
COOLING OF TEMPERATURES...ALBEIT REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL...DRIER AIR
AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS. FIRE WEATHER MAY BECOME A CONCERN FOR
THURSDAY IF TEMPERATURES ARE WARMER AND DEWPOINTS LOWER THAN
CURRENTLY ADVERTISED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO BRING SOME CONCERN THAT
DRIER AIR ALOFT COULD MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE AND BRING MUCH LOWER
HUMIDITIES. CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
NEAR 20 PERCENT AND WIND GUSTS 30-35 MPH. MADE SOME CALLS TO LOCAL
FIRE WEATHER PARTNERS AND CONSENSUS SEEMS TO BE FUELS ARE CURED
ENOUGH TO CARRY A FIRE THREAT. FOR NOW...WILL MENTION CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE HWO BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING
A WATCH.
FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...EXPECTING QUIET WEATHER FOR THE MOST
PART. FORECAST GUIDANCE IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A SYSTEM MOVING
IN SUNDAY. THE SYSTEM IS FAIRLY WEAK AND MOST GUIDANCE ANTICIPATES A
FURTHER SOUTH TRACK AND SLOWER PACE COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. WHILE A
SHOWER OR TWO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT COMPLETELY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...DID NOT THINK THAT A PRECIP MENTION WAS REQUIRED.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES LOOKS TO BREAK
DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THIS HAPPENS...A TROUGH REPLACES THE RIDGE
AND BRINGS SOUTH WINDS AND HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT...PRIMING THE
AREA FOR POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION BY MID-WEEK. THIS SYSTEM REPRESENTS
THE NEXT BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AND POTENTIALLY A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS IF TEMPERATURES/INSTABILITY ARE HIGH ENOUGH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM MDT TUE OCT 14 2014
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE 6Z TAFS. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT
WILL BECOME GUSTY WEDNESDAY LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
DECLINE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...JTL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
221 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2014
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 221 PM CDT WED OCT 15 2014
Water vapor imagery shows deep low centered over west OH covering
much of the Great Lakes south to the southern Appalachians. Energy
aloft continues to move SSE within the backside flow. Light showers
and drizzle persisted across the area mainly east of the
Mississippi. Cross section depiction off the RAP showed moisture
depth up through 500mb over the KEVV tri-state (where IR shows
enhancement -15/-20C), tapering off to a narrow corridor h9/h8
around KPOF and KUNO. Will continue highest chance PoPs east, to
near nothing SEMO through the remainder of the afternoon and evening,
with a slow drop in PoPs from west to east with time, as the low
gradually moves east. Lows tonight, will hedge toward Raw Model
output (a degree or two above MOS), given clouds.
Gradual decreasing clouds from west to east expected Thursday as
the low slowly pulls away. Clouds may hang on and be slow to clear
KEVV tri-state and into the Pennyrile. Even central sections, once
some clearing takes place, may see diurnal development take over.
Despite a frontal passage Friday, quite weather is anticipated
given a very dry air mass Thursday night through Friday night.
Some clouds expected, but that`s it. Temps Thursday through Friday
night will be a blend of existing forecast numbers, the latest MOS
and Raw Model output.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 221 PM CDT WED OCT 15 2014
A dry and seasonably cool northwest flow pattern is expected during
the long term. Very little if any precipitation will occur...and
temps will average a few degrees cooler than usual for mid October.
On Saturday...a 500 mb shortwave trough will dig southeast across
the Ohio Valley. Little if any moisture will accompany this feature.
A cool northerly low level flow will become rather gusty ahead of
high pressure over the Plains.
By Sunday...the surface high will be nearly over the Ohio
Valley...ensuring a continuation of mainly clear and cool conditions.
Another 500 mb shortwave will dig southeast across the Ohio Valley
on Monday. There may be a few showers with this system. The 12z gfs
and gefs are drier than previous runs...so pops will be kept only in
the slight chance category.
On Tuesday into Wednesday...a deep layer ridge will become
established over or just west of the Mississippi Valley. A light
northeast wind flow will keep dry and cool conditions in place.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 1250 PM CDT WED OCT 15 2014
Blanket of low clouds continues to envelope the region as cool moist
northwest winds persist around low pressure over the middle Ohio
Valley. Slight diurnal improvement in cigs and vsbys will continue
this afternoon...then a slow decrease in cigs will occur tonight.
The kevv/kowb areas will likely experience ifr cigs much of the
night. Diurnal improvement will again start Thursday morning...with
vfr conditions are kcgi. The kowb area will be the last to rise
above ifr conditions...maybe not until late morning Thursday.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
201 PM EDT WED OCT 15 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 201 PM EDT WED OCT 15 2014
SHOWERS ARE STARTING TO FILL IN ACROSS THE AREA ON SCHEDULE. THE
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK...SO HAVE ONLY ADJUSTED SOME OF THE NEAR
TERM HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO JIVE BETTER WITH THE
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1151 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2014
A VORT LOBE WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...SWINGING IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. SO FAR...THE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN SPOTTY AND LIGHT ON
RADAR...SO SLOWED THE TIMING OF THE HIGHER POPS A BIT MORE BASED ON
THESE TRENDS AS WELL AS THE HRRR MODEL. WENT AHEAD AND ALLOWED FOR
CATEGORICAL POPS FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA...AS MOS HAS COME
IN WITH 80-90 POPS FOR THOSE LOCATIONS. FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS AS WELL TO ACCOUNT FOR A SPEEDIER WARM UP
BEFORE THE THICKER CLOUDS COME IN. THE FORECAST HIGHS STILL LOOK ON
TARGET...SO ONLY MADE A FEW TWEAKS BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 656 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2014
SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OUT WEST AND MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS
MORNING. THE POP FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK TO HANDLE THE RAIN
MOVING IN. ALL THE FOG HAS JUST ABOUT RISEN INTO A STRATUS LAYER IN
ALL OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK SO HAVE
UPLOADED THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND THE GRIDS TO NDFD SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY FEATURES AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
POSITIONED OVER NORTHERN INDIANA WITH A SURFACE TROUGH JUST NOW
SWINGING INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY WITH EASTERN KENTUCKY STILL IN A DRY
SLOT REGION BEHIND AN EXITING FRONT NOW WELL ACROSS THE LEE SIDE OF
THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN. THIS BREAK HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT
IN THE VALLEYS EARLIER IN THE NIGHT BUT CLOUD COVER ROLLING IN FROM
THE WEST WITH THE APPROACH OF THE TROUGH COUPLED WITH LIFTED STRATUS
LAYERS DUE TO THE INCREASE IN SOUTHWEST WINDS...FOG IS LIFTING IN
MANY AREAS. THERE WAS AN SPS ISSUED FOR THE FOG BUT BASED ON TRENDS
OUT WEST AND WHAT HAS ALREADY HAPPENED HERE...WILL LET THE SPS EXPIRE.
HEADING INTO TODAY...THE EVER PRESENT AND SLOWLY TRUDGING
EAST...UPPER LOW WILL KEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY AS A
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. MODELS ARE QUITE
INSISTENT ON LIKELY TO CAT POPS TODAY WITH THE SHOWERS EXPECTED. WENT
WITH A COMPROMISE OF THE NAM AND GFS WHILE KEEPING SOME CONSISTENCY
WITH THE SURROUNDING OFFICES. THE COMBINATION OF WEAK INSTABILITY AND
STILL SOME 0.70 TO 0.90 PWATS WILL BE ENOUGH FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. FELT THAT THIS WAS NOT
ENOUGH FOR CATEGORICAL POPS AND KEPT LIKELY INTO THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO TONIGHT. WITH THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER OVERHEAD TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A BIT LOWER OVER THE AREA WITH LOWER 60S EXPECTED. HEADING
INTO TONIGHT THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SWING THROUGH AS THE LOW
OVER NORTHERN INDIANA WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL KEEP AT LEAST
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT AND EFFECTIVELY KEEP FOG
FROM DEVELOPING TONIGHT. FOR THURSDAY...A GENERAL AGREEMENT BETWEEN
THE GFS AND NAM HAVE THE LOW EXITING BY THURSDAY EVENING AND EXITING
SHOWERS. CLOUD COVER WILL STILL BE MAINTAINED DUE TO LINGERING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE CAUGHT UP IN THE TERRAIN BUT ALL PRECIP SHOULD EXIT BY
THIS TIME. JUST LIKE TODAY...ANY SHOWERS WILL BE CAPPED OFF WITH
LIMITED INSTABILITY AND NO THUNDER IS EXPECTED. THE PERSISTENT CLOUD
COVER SHOWER ACTIVITY AS WELL AS ADVECTION NOW FROM THE WEST ON
THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGHS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2014
EARLY IN THE PERIOD...THE CLOSED LOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE DEPARTING
TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION WHILE RATHER WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING
IS POISED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE LOWER OH AND TN VALLEYS IN ITS
WAKE FOR THU NIGHT. CORRESPONDING SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE DEEP SOUTH SHOULD ALSO BRIEFLY BUILD NORTH INTO THE AREA FOR THU
NIGHT INTO EARLY ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THIS WILL ONLY BE BRIEF AS A
MOISTURE STARVED SFC COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
WORK INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY FOR FRI INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
OVERALL...THE PATTERN WILL EVOLVE TO A RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND
PLAINS TO START THE WEEKEND WITH A TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND
THE EASTERN CONUS.
THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF RUNS CONTINUE TO VARY WITH HEIGHTS ACROSS
THE OH VALLEY REGION OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE ECMWF A LITTLE STRONG
WITH INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES WORKING ACROSS THE AREA FRI NIGHT INTO
EARLY ON SAT AND NEXT SAT EVENING INTO SAT NIGHT. THE ECMWF SCENARIO
WOULD SUPPORT A BIT MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER AND IT ALSO
REMAINS COLDER...THOUGH THE 850 MB TEMPS IN THE GFS HAVE TRENDED
COLDER OVER THE WEEKEND COMPARED TO MODEL RUNS FROM 24 HOURS AGO.
LATE IN THE PERIOD...THE EASTERN TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST
WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE ROCKIES
OVER THE WEEKEND SHIFTING EAST TOWARD THE PLAINS AND MS VALLEY
REGION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. IN NW FLOW...MODELS BRING A SFC
SYSTEM TOWARD THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE
0Z ECMWF IS QUICKER TO BRING MOISTURE AND PRECIP INTO THE REGION
COMPARED TO THE 0Z GFS. HEIGHT RISES ARE PROGGED NEAR THE END OF THE
PERIOD WITH CORRESPONDING SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
COMMONWEALTH.
OVERALL...PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE QUICKLY DIMINISHING ON THU EVENING
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AS THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES
TO DEPART...THOUGH SOME LOW CLOUDS WILL BE LEFT BEHIND AS WELL.
CLEARING ON THU NIGHT WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PART OF
THE CWA. POTENTIALLY DENSE FOG MAY BECOME A CONCERN FOR THU NIGHT...
PENDING CLEARING...GIVEN SLACKENING WINDS AND MOIST GROUND FROM THE
VERY WET START TO OCTOBER.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BRIEFLY IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT ON
FRIDAY...TO NEAR 70...IF NOT A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE IN A FEW
SPOTS WHICH IS NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. COLD ADVECTION
BEHIND THE FRONT AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS BEGINS TO
BUILD INTO THE OH VALLEY WILL USHER IN A COLDER AIR MASS FOR THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
ANTICIPATED OVER THE WEEKEND AND THE SHORTWAVES IN NW FLOW FROM FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT WILL BRING LOW CLOUDS AT TIMES.
AS THE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE CWA ON SAT NIGHT...THE EASTERN COUNTIES
HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR CLOUDS SO THE COLDEST MIN T SHOULD BE
ACROSS THE DEEPER WESTERN VALLEYS AND HIGHEST TERRAIN. MIN T FOR SUN
NIGHT DEPENDS ON WHEN CLOUD COVER INCREASES. THE AIR MASS COULD
BECOME DRY ENOUGH ON SUN INTO SUN NIGHT THAT IF CLOUDS ARE SLOW TO
INCREASE...A FEW OF THE EASTERN VALLEYS MIGHT HAVE A THREAT OF
FROST. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT HIGH AS THE 0Z ECMWF
BRINGS THE CLOUDS IN A BIT FASTER THAN THE 0Z GFS. LATE IN THE
PERIOD...LOW CHANCE POPS WERE USED FOR THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WORKING THROUGH THE OH AND TN VALLEY FROM
MON INTO EARLY ON TUE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 201 PM EDT WED OCT 15 2014
EXPECT NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO MOVE IN ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...KNOCKING DOWN THE CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY. ONCE THE SHOWERS BECOME MORE
SCATTERED LATER THIS EVENING...CEILINGS WILL LOWER DOWN TO IFR/LIFR
STATUS. CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE WORSE ON THE RIDGES. ONLY A GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED LATER WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BE OUT
OF THE SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS...WITH AN OCCASIONAL GUST TO AROUND
15 KTS...MAINLY SEEN AT LOZ AND SME THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE
DIMINISHING THIS EVENING.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
1151 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1151 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2014
A VORT LOBE WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...SWINGING IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. SO FAR...THE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN SPOTTY AND LIGHT ON
RADAR...SO SLOWED THE TIMING OF THE HIGHER POPS A BIT MORE BASED ON
THESE TRENDS AS WELL AS THE HRRR MODEL. WENT AHEAD AND ALLOWED FOR
CATEGORICAL POPS FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA...AS MOS HAS COME
IN WITH 80-90 POPS FOR THOSE LOCATIONS. FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS AS WELL TO ACCOUNT FOR A SPEEDIER WARM UP
BEFORE THE THICKER CLOUDS COME IN. THE FORECAST HIGHS STILL LOOK ON
TARGET...SO ONLY MADE A FEW TWEAKS BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 656 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2014
SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OUT WEST AND MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS
MORNING. THE POP FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK TO HANDLE THE RAIN
MOVING IN. ALL THE FOG HAS JUST ABOUT RISEN INTO A STRATUS LAYER IN
ALL OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK SO HAVE
UPLOADED THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND THE GRIDS TO NDFD SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY FEATURES AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
POSITIONED OVER NORTHERN INDIANA WITH A SURFACE TROUGH JUST NOW
SWINGING INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY WITH EASTERN KENTUCKY STILL IN A DRY
SLOT REGION BEHIND AN EXITING FRONT NOW WELL ACROSS THE LEE SIDE OF
THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN. THIS BREAK HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT
IN THE VALLEYS EARLIER IN THE NIGHT BUT CLOUD COVER ROLLING IN FROM
THE WEST WITH THE APPROACH OF THE TROUGH COUPLED WITH LIFTED STRATUS
LAYERS DUE TO THE INCREASE IN SOUTHWEST WINDS...FOG IS LIFTING IN
MANY AREAS. THERE WAS AN SPS ISSUED FOR THE FOG BUT BASED ON TRENDS
OUT WEST AND WHAT HAS ALREADY HAPPENED HERE...WILL LET THE SPS EXPIRE.
HEADING INTO TODAY...THE EVER PRESENT AND SLOWLY TRUDGING
EAST...UPPER LOW WILL KEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY AS A
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. MODELS ARE QUITE
INSISTENT ON LIKELY TO CAT POPS TODAY WITH THE SHOWERS EXPECTED. WENT
WITH A COMPROMISE OF THE NAM AND GFS WHILE KEEPING SOME CONSISTENCY
WITH THE SURROUNDING OFFICES. THE COMBINATION OF WEAK INSTABILITY AND
STILL SOME 0.70 TO 0.90 PWATS WILL BE ENOUGH FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. FELT THAT THIS WAS NOT
ENOUGH FOR CATEGORICAL POPS AND KEPT LIKELY INTO THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO TONIGHT. WITH THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER OVERHEAD TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A BIT LOWER OVER THE AREA WITH LOWER 60S EXPECTED. HEADING
INTO TONIGHT THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SWING THROUGH AS THE LOW
OVER NORTHERN INDIANA WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL KEEP AT LEAST
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT AND EFFECTIVELY KEEP FOG
FROM DEVELOPING TONIGHT. FOR THURSDAY...A GENERAL AGREEMENT BETWEEN
THE GFS AND NAM HAVE THE LOW EXITING BY THURSDAY EVENING AND EXITING
SHOWERS. CLOUD COVER WILL STILL BE MAINTAINED DUE TO LINGERING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE CAUGHT UP IN THE TERRAIN BUT ALL PRECIP SHOULD EXIT BY
THIS TIME. JUST LIKE TODAY...ANY SHOWERS WILL BE CAPPED OFF WITH
LIMITED INSTABILITY AND NO THUNDER IS EXPECTED. THE PERSISTENT CLOUD
COVER SHOWER ACTIVITY AS WELL AS ADVECTION NOW FROM THE WEST ON
THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGHS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2014
EARLY IN THE PERIOD...THE CLOSED LOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE DEPARTING
TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION WHILE RATHER WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING
IS POISED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE LOWER OH AND TN VALLEYS IN ITS
WAKE FOR THU NIGHT. CORRESPONDING SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE DEEP SOUTH SHOULD ALSO BRIEFLY BUILD NORTH INTO THE AREA FOR THU
NIGHT INTO EARLY ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THIS WILL ONLY BE BRIEF AS A
MOISTURE STARVED SFC COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
WORK INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY FOR FRI INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
OVERALL...THE PATTERN WILL EVOLVE TO A RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND
PLAINS TO START THE WEEKEND WITH A TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND
THE EASTERN CONUS.
THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF RUNS CONTINUE TO VARY WITH HEIGHTS ACROSS
THE OH VALLEY REGION OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE ECMWF A LITTLE STRONG
WITH INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES WORKING ACROSS THE AREA FRI NIGHT INTO
EARLY ON SAT AND NEXT SAT EVENING INTO SAT NIGHT. THE ECMWF SCENARIO
WOULD SUPPORT A BIT MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER AND IT ALSO
REMAINS COLDER...THOUGH THE 850 MB TEMPS IN THE GFS HAVE TRENDED
COLDER OVER THE WEEKEND COMPARED TO MODEL RUNS FROM 24 HOURS AGO.
LATE IN THE PERIOD...THE EASTERN TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST
WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE ROCKIES
OVER THE WEEKEND SHIFTING EAST TOWARD THE PLAINS AND MS VALLEY
REGION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. IN NW FLOW...MODELS BRING A SFC
SYSTEM TOWARD THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE
0Z ECMWF IS QUICKER TO BRING MOISTURE AND PRECIP INTO THE REGION
COMPARED TO THE 0Z GFS. HEIGHT RISES ARE PROGGED NEAR THE END OF THE
PERIOD WITH CORRESPONDING SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
COMMONWEALTH.
OVERALL...PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE QUICKLY DIMINISHING ON THU EVENING
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AS THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES
TO DEPART...THOUGH SOME LOW CLOUDS WILL BE LEFT BEHIND AS WELL.
CLEARING ON THU NIGHT WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PART OF
THE CWA. POTENTIALLY DENSE FOG MAY BECOME A CONCERN FOR THU NIGHT...
PENDING CLEARING...GIVEN SLACKENING WINDS AND MOIST GROUND FROM THE
VERY WET START TO OCTOBER.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BRIEFLY IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT ON
FRIDAY...TO NEAR 70...IF NOT A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE IN A FEW
SPOTS WHICH IS NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. COLD ADVECTION
BEHIND THE FRONT AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS BEGINS TO
BUILD INTO THE OH VALLEY WILL USHER IN A COLDER AIR MASS FOR THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
ANTICIPATED OVER THE WEEKEND AND THE SHORTWAVES IN NW FLOW FROM FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT WILL BRING LOW CLOUDS AT TIMES.
AS THE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE CWA ON SAT NIGHT...THE EASTERN COUNTIES
HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR CLOUDS SO THE COLDEST MIN T SHOULD BE
ACROSS THE DEEPER WESTERN VALLEYS AND HIGHEST TERRAIN. MIN T FOR SUN
NIGHT DEPENDS ON WHEN CLOUD COVER INCREASES. THE AIR MASS COULD
BECOME DRY ENOUGH ON SUN INTO SUN NIGHT THAT IF CLOUDS ARE SLOW TO
INCREASE...A FEW OF THE EASTERN VALLEYS MIGHT HAVE A THREAT OF
FROST. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT HIGH AS THE 0Z ECMWF
BRINGS THE CLOUDS IN A BIT FASTER THAN THE 0Z GFS. LATE IN THE
PERIOD...LOW CHANCE POPS WERE USED FOR THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WORKING THROUGH THE OH AND TN VALLEY FROM
MON INTO EARLY ON TUE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 656 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2014
FOG OVER THE AREA HAS RISEN TO A STRATUS LAYER THIS MORNING AND HAVE
PUT SOME MVFR CEILINGS IN THE TAFS TO ADDRESS THIS. SOME SHOWERS HAVE
ALREADY DEVELOPED OUT WEST AND WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA THIS
MORNING. AN APPROACHING TROUGH TODAY WILL SPAWN SOME MORE SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE PUT THIS INTO THE TAF SITES WITH MAINLY MVFR
CONDITIONS. HEADING INTO TONIGHT WILL GO WITH SOME VCSH CONTINUING
BUT WILL ALSO GO WITH SOME IFR CEILINGS AT THE SITES. WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN OVERALL LIGHT BUT SME AND LOZ MAY SEE SOME 15 KNOT SOUTHWEST
GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON THEN BECOMING LIGHT AFTER 00Z.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
153 PM EDT WED OCT 15 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2014
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW SLOW MOVING CLOSED
LO OVER IL WITH 110KT H3 JET MAX MOVING N THRU LOWER MI TO THE E OF
THIS FEATURE. THERE IS AN AREA OF RAIN OVER CENTRAL UPR MI UNDER
SHARP SFC-H85 FRONTAL ZN/CYC FLOW...SOME UPR DVGC/DEEP LYR QVECTOR
CNVGC IN THE EXIT REGION OF THIS JET STREAK AND CLOSER TO DEEPER
MSTR DEPICTED ON THE 00Z GRB RAOB...WHERE 00Z PWAT WAS CLOSE TO AN
INCH OR 165 PCT OF NORMAL. BUT FAIRLY DRY LYR BTWN H7-9 SHOWN ON THE
00Z APX RAOB APPEARS TO BE LIMITING THE PCPN COVERAGE FARTHER TO THE
E...WHERE CLD TOP TEMPS WERE WARMING PER IR STLT IMAGERY DESPITE THE
PRESENCE OF THE HEALTHY DYNAMIC FORCING THERE AS WELL. NE WINDS ARE
GUSTING AS HI AS ARND 35 MPH OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL UPR MI UNDER
THE TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT IN THAT AREA. OVER THE FAR W...SKIES ARE
MOCLR CLOSER TO SFC RDG AXIS RUNNING FM NW ONTARIO SWWD THRU MN AND
VERY DRY AIRMASS SHOWN ON THE 00Z INL RAOB. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS
NEAR IWD...WHERE SOME UPSLOPE LO CLDS HAVE DVLPD.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM WL BE FOCUSED ON POPS
ASSOCIATED WITH LEFT EXIT FORCING OF JET STREAK IN LOWER MI.
TODAY...ALTHOUGH THE DRY AIR SHOWN ON THE 00Z APX RAOB IS LIMITING
THE RA COVERAGE OVER THE ERN CWA EARLY THIS MRNG...MOST OF THE
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS AN AREA OF HIER H85 DEWPTS WRAPPING WWD
INTO THE E HALF OF UPR MI BY 09Z. THE INTERACTION BTWN THIS INCRSG
MSTR AND DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC...UPR DVGC AND H85-7 FGEN SHOULD
RESULT IN EXPANDING POPS FOR THE E HALF OF UPR MI. RECENT IR STLT
IMAGERY IN FACT SHOWS COOLING CLD TOPS IN THIS AREA. VERY DRY AIR TO
THE W WL SUPPORT A FAIRLY SHARP WRN EDGE OF THE HIER POPS ACRS THE
CENTRAL CWA. AS THE CLOSED LO/ACCOMPANYING JET STREAK TO THE S DRIFT
SLOWLY TO THE E THRU THE DAY AND TO NEAR CINCINNATI BY 00Z...THE
DYNAMIC FORCING WL TEND TO DIMINISH AND SHIFT EWD AS WELL...
RESULTING IN LOWERING POPS UNDER DECAYING MSTR RIBBON THAT WL STILL
MAINTAIN OVC SKIES AT LEAST OVER THE E HALF. ALL THIS ACTION WL
REMAIN AWAY FM THE WRN CWA...WHERE MORE SUNSHINE UNDER AREA OF DRIER
AIR/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC WL BOOST TEMPS WELL INTO THE 50S AFTER ANY
LINGERING LO CLDS/FOG MIX OUT. SLOWLY WEAKENING PRES GRADIENT WL
ALLOW FOR DIMINISHING WINDS...BUT LINGERING HI WAVES WHIPPED UP BY
THE HIER WAVES MAY CAUSE SOME MINOR BEACH EROSION OVER THE NCENTRAL
ESPECIALLY THIS MRNG.
TNGT...AS THE CLOSED UPR LO/DYNAMIC SUPPORT SHIFTS SLOWLY TO THE
E...LINGERNING SHOWERS OVER THE E WL SLOWLY DIMINISH TO NO MORE THAN
SCHC POPS LATE. BUT MANY OF THE MODELS HINT LO CLDS WL LINGER OVER
MAINLY THE NCENTRAL AND E WITH PERSISTENT/ALBEIT WEAKENING SFC-H925
NE FLOW OFF LK SUP UNDER SHARP SUBSIDENCE INVRN. ADDED A MENTION OF
PATCHY FOG OVER THE W LATE WHERE SKIES ARE MORE LIKELY TO TURN MOCLR
WITH A DOWNSLOPE ESE WIND COMPONENT. LOWERED FCST MIN TEMPS WELL
INTO THE 30S IN THIS AREA. LINGERING CLDS WL LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP
FALL OVER THE NCENTRAL AND E.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2014
THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE SRN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL MOVE
OVER OH BY 12Z THU AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NRN PLAINS.
BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS WILL BE THE RIDGE OVER THE NWRN CWA. BY 12Z
FRI...MODELS SHOW THE GREAT LAKES LOW HAVING MOVED TO THE
ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER E OF LAKE SUPERIOR WHILE MERGING WITH THE
SYSTEM COMING OUT OF THE NRN PLAINS...WHICH WILL HAVE STRENGTHENED
INTO A CLOSED LOW AND WILL MOVE OVER OR NEAR THE MN ARROWHEAD. THE
SFC COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NRN PLAINS LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE WRN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z FRI...BUT BETTER
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LAGS THE FRONT BY AROUND 6 HOURS. AS A
RESULT...MINIMAL PRECIP IS EXPECTED BEFORE FROM 12Z THU TO 12Z FRI
AS THE RIDGE WILL BE MOVING OVERHEAD AND THE CWA WILL BE BETWEEN THE
AREAS OF FORCING. THE ONLY PLACE WHERE SOME VERY MINOR RAIN MAY FALL
IS OVER ERN UPPER MI IF ANY SHORTWAVE ENERGY CAN ROTATE AROUND THE
GREAT LAKES LOW.
THE NRN PLAINS LOW WILL SHIFT ACROSS UPPER MI ON FRI INTO FRI
EVENING. MODELS AGREE WELL ON THIS OCCURRING...BUT DO VARY SLIGHTLY
ON TIMING WITH THE 12Z/14 ECMWF BEING FASTER...THE 00Z/15 NAM BEING
SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF BY ABOUT 6 HOURS AND THE 00Z/15 GFS BETWEEN
THE TWO. 850MB TEMPS FALL FROM A MAX OF AROUND 10C AT 00Z FRI TO
3-4C AT 18Z FRI AND THEN TO AROUND -2C OVER NWRN UPPER MI BEHIND THE
SECONDARY COLD FRONT BY 00Z SAT /WITH THE MEAN TIMING BETWEEN THE
MODELS/. THE COMBINATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND UPSLOPE FLOW
THAT BECOMES INCREASINGLY LAKE ENHANCED EASILY JUSTIFIES LIKELY POPS
FOR RAIN OVER NW PRECIP BELTS. EXPECT SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
ELSEWHERE.
CAA CONTINUES FRI NIGHT WITH 850MB TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND -5C BY
12Z SAT...ALTHOUGH THE NAM IS SLOWER AND THEREFORE WARMER. WINDS
TURN MORE N-NNW FRI NIGHT...SO THE LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED AREAS SHIFT
SLIGHTLY FROM FRI EVENING. FRI NIGHT...PRECIP SHOULD TURN TO ALL
SNOW OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NCENTRAL AND WRN UPPER MI...MEANING
THE FIRST MEASURABLE SNOWFALL FOR THE SEASON WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THESE AREAS. ELSEWHERE...A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH NO
ACCUMULATIONS. EVEN THE LARGER SCALE ECMWF AND GLOBAL GEM SHOW UP TO
0.2 INCHES OF QPF BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z SAT...SO EXPECT MORE IN THE
FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS...ESPECIALLY IF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH
AS IS HINTED AT BY GUIDANCE. WHILE IT IS STILL PRETTY FAR OUT TO BE
TALKING ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS...AN OR MAYBE TWO OF SNOW IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION LATE FRI NIGHT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR...MAINLY ON GRASSY OR ELEVATED SURFACES.
SATURDAY IS THE TRICKIER FORECAST SINCE UPPER LEVEL FORCING IS OUT
OF THE AREA...MODELS VARY ON HOW COLD THE AIRMASS WILL BE AND DRY
AIR WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE NW. THE ECMWF SHOWS 850MB TEMPS
GENERALLY WARMING THROUGH THE DAY TO A RANGE OF 0C W TO -4C E. THE
GFS IS COLDER IN SHOWING A SWATH OF -7C TO -8C 850MB TEMPS MOVING W
TO E ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE DAY...ALTHOUGH THE PREVIOUS RUN DID
NOT HAVE THIS. MODELS AGREE FAIRLY WELL ON MOISTURE...WITH
1000-700MB RH VALUES DROPPING BELOW 40 PERCENT OVER WRN LAKE
SUPERIOR BY 18Z SAT...ALTHOUGH THE GFS DOES NOT MOVE THE DRY AIR E
IN THE EVENING LIKE THE ECMWF DOES. THINK THE LES WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE W...WHILE PERSISTING
MORE OVER THE E. ADDITIONAL SNOW IS EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE W AND NCENTRAL...BUT WITH DAYTIME HEATING NOT MUCH OF THAT
SHOULD ACCUMULATE...ESPECIALLY ON THE ROADS.
BY LATE SAT NIGHT...A SFC RIDGE WILL HAVE MOVED OVER THE WRN CWA AS
MOISTURE DROPS OUT AND 850MB TEMPS INCREASE. THINK THERE MAY BE SOME
LINGERING ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS...SO WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS SHIFT.
FOR SUN THROUGH TUE...JUST USED CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE AS
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN SHORTWAVE ENERGY MAY BRING SOME PRECIP LATE SUN
INTO MON...WITH TUE LOOKING DRIER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT WED OCT 15 2014
WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM ILLINOIS TO LOWER MICHIGAN WILL
RESULT IN LOW CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF LOWER VSBY AT KSAW INTO
THURSDAY. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO IFR LATER THIS AFTN...THEN
FALL BACK TO LIFR OR EVEN VLIFR TONIGHT DUE TO PERSISTENT MOIST AND
COOL NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW OFF OF LK SUPERIOR BENEATH INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING ALOFT. CONDITIONS MAY APPROACH AIRPORT
MINIMUMS. VERY LOW CONDITIONS WOULD CONTINUE INTO MID MORNING ON
THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...AT KIWD AND KCMX...THOUGH THERE MAY BE SCT-BKN
MVFR CLOUDS AT KCMX THIS AFTN...THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE IFR CATEGORY
GROUND FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
MOVES OVER WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN. CONDITIONS WILL SHOW IMPROVEMENT AT
ALL TAF SITES BY MIDDAY ON THURSDAY...BUT IMPROVEMENT WILL TAKE THE
LONGEST AT KSAW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2014
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TODAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES STARTS TO WEAKEN WHILE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW
20 KTS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES
ACROSS THE LAKE ON FRIDAY AND THEN MERGES WITH THE LOW OVER THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES WHILE STRENGTHENING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG
N-NW WINDS TO DEVELOP FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN
GALES OF 35-40 KTS FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...TITUS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
727 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2014
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW SLOW MOVING CLOSED
LO OVER IL WITH 110KT H3 JET MAX MOVING N THRU LOWER MI TO THE E OF
THIS FEATURE. THERE IS AN AREA OF RAIN OVER CENTRAL UPR MI UNDER
SHARP SFC-H85 FRONTAL ZN/CYC FLOW...SOME UPR DVGC/DEEP LYR QVECTOR
CNVGC IN THE EXIT REGION OF THIS JET STREAK AND CLOSER TO DEEPER
MSTR DEPICTED ON THE 00Z GRB RAOB...WHERE 00Z PWAT WAS CLOSE TO AN
INCH OR 165 PCT OF NORMAL. BUT FAIRLY DRY LYR BTWN H7-9 SHOWN ON THE
00Z APX RAOB APPEARS TO BE LIMITING THE PCPN COVERAGE FARTHER TO THE
E...WHERE CLD TOP TEMPS WERE WARMING PER IR STLT IMAGERY DESPITE THE
PRESENCE OF THE HEALTHY DYNAMIC FORCING THERE AS WELL. NE WINDS ARE
GUSTING AS HI AS ARND 35 MPH OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL UPR MI UNDER
THE TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT IN THAT AREA. OVER THE FAR W...SKIES ARE
MOCLR CLOSER TO SFC RDG AXIS RUNNING FM NW ONTARIO SWWD THRU MN AND
VERY DRY AIRMASS SHOWN ON THE 00Z INL RAOB. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS
NEAR IWD...WHERE SOME UPSLOPE LO CLDS HAVE DVLPD.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM WL BE FOCUSED ON POPS
ASSOCIATED WITH LEFT EXIT FORCING OF JET STREAK IN LOWER MI.
TODAY...ALTHOUGH THE DRY AIR SHOWN ON THE 00Z APX RAOB IS LIMITING
THE RA COVERAGE OVER THE ERN CWA EARLY THIS MRNG...MOST OF THE
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS AN AREA OF HIER H85 DEWPTS WRAPPING WWD
INTO THE E HALF OF UPR MI BY 09Z. THE INTERACTION BTWN THIS INCRSG
MSTR AND DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC...UPR DVGC AND H85-7 FGEN SHOULD
RESULT IN EXPANDING POPS FOR THE E HALF OF UPR MI. RECENT IR STLT
IMAGERY IN FACT SHOWS COOLING CLD TOPS IN THIS AREA. VERY DRY AIR TO
THE W WL SUPPORT A FAIRLY SHARP WRN EDGE OF THE HIER POPS ACRS THE
CENTRAL CWA. AS THE CLOSED LO/ACCOMPANYING JET STREAK TO THE S DRIFT
SLOWLY TO THE E THRU THE DAY AND TO NEAR CINCINNATI BY 00Z...THE
DYNAMIC FORCING WL TEND TO DIMINISH AND SHIFT EWD AS WELL...
RESULTING IN LOWERING POPS UNDER DECAYING MSTR RIBBON THAT WL STILL
MAINTAIN OVC SKIES AT LEAST OVER THE E HALF. ALL THIS ACTION WL
REMAIN AWAY FM THE WRN CWA...WHERE MORE SUNSHINE UNDER AREA OF DRIER
AIR/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC WL BOOST TEMPS WELL INTO THE 50S AFTER ANY
LINGERING LO CLDS/FOG MIX OUT. SLOWLY WEAKENING PRES GRADIENT WL
ALLOW FOR DIMINISHING WINDS...BUT LINGERING HI WAVES WHIPPED UP BY
THE HIER WAVES MAY CAUSE SOME MINOR BEACH EROSION OVER THE NCENTRAL
ESPECIALLY THIS MRNG.
TNGT...AS THE CLOSED UPR LO/DYNAMIC SUPPORT SHIFTS SLOWLY TO THE
E...LINGERNING SHOWERS OVER THE E WL SLOWLY DIMINISH TO NO MORE THAN
SCHC POPS LATE. BUT MANY OF THE MODELS HINT LO CLDS WL LINGER OVER
MAINLY THE NCENTRAL AND E WITH PERSISTENT/ALBEIT WEAKENING SFC-H925
NE FLOW OFF LK SUP UNDER SHARP SUBSIDENCE INVRN. ADDED A MENTION OF
PATCHY FOG OVER THE W LATE WHERE SKIES ARE MORE LIKELY TO TURN MOCLR
WITH A DOWNSLOPE ESE WIND COMPONENT. LOWERED FCST MIN TEMPS WELL
INTO THE 30S IN THIS AREA. LINGERING CLDS WL LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP
FALL OVER THE NCENTRAL AND E.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2014
THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE SRN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL MOVE
OVER OH BY 12Z THU AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NRN PLAINS.
BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS WILL BE THE RIDGE OVER THE NWRN CWA. BY 12Z
FRI...MODELS SHOW THE GREAT LAKES LOW HAVING MOVED TO THE
ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER E OF LAKE SUPERIOR WHILE MERGING WITH THE
SYSTEM COMING OUT OF THE NRN PLAINS...WHICH WILL HAVE STRENGTHENED
INTO A CLOSED LOW AND WILL MOVE OVER OR NEAR THE MN ARROWHEAD. THE
SFC COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NRN PLAINS LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE WRN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z FRI...BUT BETTER
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LAGS THE FRONT BY AROUND 6 HOURS. AS A
RESULT...MINIMAL PRECIP IS EXPECTED BEFORE FROM 12Z THU TO 12Z FRI
AS THE RIDGE WILL BE MOVING OVERHEAD AND THE CWA WILL BE BETWEEN THE
AREAS OF FORCING. THE ONLY PLACE WHERE SOME VERY MINOR RAIN MAY FALL
IS OVER ERN UPPER MI IF ANY SHORTWAVE ENERGY CAN ROTATE AROUND THE
GREAT LAKES LOW.
THE NRN PLAINS LOW WILL SHIFT ACROSS UPPER MI ON FRI INTO FRI
EVENING. MODELS AGREE WELL ON THIS OCCURRING...BUT DO VARY SLIGHTLY
ON TIMING WITH THE 12Z/14 ECMWF BEING FASTER...THE 00Z/15 NAM BEING
SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF BY ABOUT 6 HOURS AND THE 00Z/15 GFS BETWEEN
THE TWO. 850MB TEMPS FALL FROM A MAX OF AROUND 10C AT 00Z FRI TO
3-4C AT 18Z FRI AND THEN TO AROUND -2C OVER NWRN UPPER MI BEHIND THE
SECONDARY COLD FRONT BY 00Z SAT /WITH THE MEAN TIMING BETWEEN THE
MODELS/. THE COMBINATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND UPSLOPE FLOW
THAT BECOMES INCREASINGLY LAKE ENHANCED EASILY JUSTIFIES LIKELY POPS
FOR RAIN OVER NW PRECIP BELTS. EXPECT SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
ELSEWHERE.
CAA CONTINUES FRI NIGHT WITH 850MB TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND -5C BY
12Z SAT...ALTHOUGH THE NAM IS SLOWER AND THEREFORE WARMER. WINDS
TURN MORE N-NNW FRI NIGHT...SO THE LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED AREAS SHIFT
SLIGHTLY FROM FRI EVENING. FRI NIGHT...PRECIP SHOULD TURN TO ALL
SNOW OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NCENTRAL AND WRN UPPER MI...MEANING
THE FIRST MEASURABLE SNOWFALL FOR THE SEASON WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THESE AREAS. ELSEWHERE...A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH NO
ACCUMULATIONS. EVEN THE LARGER SCALE ECMWF AND GLOBAL GEM SHOW UP TO
0.2 INCHES OF QPF BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z SAT...SO EXPECT MORE IN THE
FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS...ESPECIALLY IF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH
AS IS HINTED AT BY GUIDANCE. WHILE IT IS STILL PRETTY FAR OUT TO BE
TALKING ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS...AN OR MAYBE TWO OF SNOW IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION LATE FRI NIGHT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR...MAINLY ON GRASSY OR ELEVATED SURFACES.
SATURDAY IS THE TRICKIER FORECAST SINCE UPPER LEVEL FORCING IS OUT
OF THE AREA...MODELS VARY ON HOW COLD THE AIRMASS WILL BE AND DRY
AIR WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE NW. THE ECMWF SHOWS 850MB TEMPS
GENERALLY WARMING THROUGH THE DAY TO A RANGE OF 0C W TO -4C E. THE
GFS IS COLDER IN SHOWING A SWATH OF -7C TO -8C 850MB TEMPS MOVING W
TO E ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE DAY...ALTHOUGH THE PREVIOUS RUN DID
NOT HAVE THIS. MODELS AGREE FAIRLY WELL ON MOISTURE...WITH
1000-700MB RH VALUES DROPPING BELOW 40 PERCENT OVER WRN LAKE
SUPERIOR BY 18Z SAT...ALTHOUGH THE GFS DOES NOT MOVE THE DRY AIR E
IN THE EVENING LIKE THE ECMWF DOES. THINK THE LES WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE W...WHILE PERSISTING
MORE OVER THE E. ADDITIONAL SNOW IS EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE W AND NCENTRAL...BUT WITH DAYTIME HEATING NOT MUCH OF THAT
SHOULD ACCUMULATE...ESPECIALLY ON THE ROADS.
BY LATE SAT NIGHT...A SFC RIDGE WILL HAVE MOVED OVER THE WRN CWA AS
MOISTURE DROPS OUT AND 850MB TEMPS INCREASE. THINK THERE MAY BE SOME
LINGERING ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS...SO WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS SHIFT.
FOR SUN THROUGH TUE...JUST USED CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE AS
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN SHORTWAVE ENERGY MAY BRING SOME PRECIP LATE SUN
INTO MON...WITH TUE LOOKING DRIER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 724 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2014
ALTHOUGH THERE MAY STILL BE SOME UPSLOPE LO CLDS AT IWD EARLY THIS
TAF PERIOD...VERY DRY AIR SHOWN ON THE 00Z INL/YPL RAOBS IN CONCERT
WITH DAYTIME HEATING WL BRING ABOUT VFR CONDITIONS AT IWD AND CMX
INTO TNGT. AS A HI PRES RDG MOVES OVHD TNGT AND WINDS TEND NEAR CALM
UNDER A MOCLR SKY...SOME FOG MAY BRING SOME LOWER VSBYS. NOT
CONFIDENT ENUF TO GO WITH AN IFR FCST...BUT THESE LOWER VSBYS WL NOT
BE OUT OF THE QUESTION...ESPECIALLY AT IWD. FOR SAW...ALTHOUGH
GUSTY NNE WINDS WL BE SLOWLY DIMINISHING THRU THE DAY AS LO PRES IN
THE OH RIVER VALLEY SLOWLY SHIFTS TO THE E...FAVORABLE UPSLOPE WIND
COMPONENT IN THE PRESENCE OF DEEPER MSTR/A FEW -SHRA THIS MRNG WL
RESULT IN LO CLDS THRU THE DAY. EXPECT IFR CIGS TO SLOWLY IMPROVE TO
MVFR WITH SOME DAYTIME HEATING. ALTHOUGH SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES AN
IMPROVEMENT AT SAW TNGT TO VFR...NOCTURNAL COOLING AND PERSISTENT
ALBEIT LIGHTER UPSLOPE NNE WIND UNDER SHARP SUBSIDENCE INVRN SHOULD
MAINTAIN LO CLDS AND AT LEAST MVFR CIGS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2014
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TODAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES STARTS TO WEAKEN WHILE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW
20 KTS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES
ACROSS THE LAKE ON FRIDAY AND THEN MERGES WITH THE LOW OVER THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES WHILE STRENGTHENING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG
N-NW WINDS TO DEVELOP FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN
GALES OF 35-40 KTS FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...TITUS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
414 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2014
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW SLOW MOVING CLOSED
LO OVER IL WITH 110KT H3 JET MAX MOVING N THRU LOWER MI TO THE E OF
THIS FEATURE. THERE IS AN AREA OF RAIN OVER CENTRAL UPR MI UNDER
SHARP SFC-H85 FRONTAL ZN/CYC FLOW...SOME UPR DVGC/DEEP LYR QVECTOR
CNVGC IN THE EXIT REGION OF THIS JET STREAK AND CLOSER TO DEEPER
MSTR DEPICTED ON THE 00Z GRB RAOB...WHERE 00Z PWAT WAS CLOSE TO AN
INCH OR 165 PCT OF NORMAL. BUT FAIRLY DRY LYR BTWN H7-9 SHOWN ON THE
00Z APX RAOB APPEARS TO BE LIMITING THE PCPN COVERAGE FARTHER TO THE
E...WHERE CLD TOP TEMPS WERE WARMING PER IR STLT IMAGERY DESPITE THE
PRESENCE OF THE HEALTHY DYNAMIC FORCING THERE AS WELL. NE WINDS ARE
GUSTING AS HI AS ARND 35 MPH OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL UPR MI UNDER
THE TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT IN THAT AREA. OVER THE FAR W...SKIES ARE
MOCLR CLOSER TO SFC RDG AXIS RUNNING FM NW ONTARIO SWWD THRU MN AND
VERY DRY AIRMASS SHOWN ON THE 00Z INL RAOB. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS
NEAR IWD...WHERE SOME UPSLOPE LO CLDS HAVE DVLPD.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM WL BE FOCUSED ON POPS
ASSOCIATED WITH LEFT EXIT FORCING OF JET STREAK IN LOWER MI.
TODAY...ALTHOUGH THE DRY AIR SHOWN ON THE 00Z APX RAOB IS LIMITING
THE RA COVERAGE OVER THE ERN CWA EARLY THIS MRNG...MOST OF THE
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS AN AREA OF HIER H85 DEWPTS WRAPPING WWD
INTO THE E HALF OF UPR MI BY 09Z. THE INTERACTION BTWN THIS INCRSG
MSTR AND DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC...UPR DVGC AND H85-7 FGEN SHOULD
RESULT IN EXPANDING POPS FOR THE E HALF OF UPR MI. RECENT IR STLT
IMAGERY IN FACT SHOWS COOLING CLD TOPS IN THIS AREA. VERY DRY AIR TO
THE W WL SUPPORT A FAIRLY SHARP WRN EDGE OF THE HIER POPS ACRS THE
CENTRAL CWA. AS THE CLOSED LO/ACCOMPANYING JET STREAK TO THE S DRIFT
SLOWLY TO THE E THRU THE DAY AND TO NEAR CINCINNATI BY 00Z...THE
DYNAMIC FORCING WL TEND TO DIMINISH AND SHIFT EWD AS WELL...
RESULTING IN LOWERING POPS UNDER DECAYING MSTR RIBBON THAT WL STILL
MAINTAIN OVC SKIES AT LEAST OVER THE E HALF. ALL THIS ACTION WL
REMAIN AWAY FM THE WRN CWA...WHERE MORE SUNSHINE UNDER AREA OF DRIER
AIR/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC WL BOOST TEMPS WELL INTO THE 50S AFTER ANY
LINGERING LO CLDS/FOG MIX OUT. SLOWLY WEAKENING PRES GRADIENT WL
ALLOW FOR DIMINISHING WINDS...BUT LINGERING HI WAVES WHIPPED UP BY
THE HIER WAVES MAY CAUSE SOME MINOR BEACH EROSION OVER THE NCENTRAL
ESPECIALLY THIS MRNG.
TNGT...AS THE CLOSED UPR LO/DYNAMIC SUPPORT SHIFTS SLOWLY TO THE
E...LINGERNING SHOWERS OVER THE E WL SLOWLY DIMINISH TO NO MORE THAN
SCHC POPS LATE. BUT MANY OF THE MODELS HINT LO CLDS WL LINGER OVER
MAINLY THE NCENTRAL AND E WITH PERSISTENT/ALBEIT WEAKENING SFC-H925
NE FLOW OFF LK SUP UNDER SHARP SUBSIDENCE INVRN. ADDED A MENTION OF
PATCHY FOG OVER THE W LATE WHERE SKIES ARE MORE LIKELY TO TURN MOCLR
WITH A DOWNSLOPE ESE WIND COMPONENT. LOWERED FCST MIN TEMPS WELL
INTO THE 30S IN THIS AREA. LINGERING CLDS WL LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP
FALL OVER THE NCENTRAL AND E.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2014
THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE SRN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL MOVE
OVER OH BY 12Z THU AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NRN PLAINS.
BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS WILL BE THE RIDGE OVER THE NWRN CWA. BY 12Z
FRI...MODELS SHOW THE GREAT LAKES LOW HAVING MOVED TO THE
ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER E OF LAKE SUPERIOR WHILE MERGING WITH THE
SYSTEM COMING OUT OF THE NRN PLAINS...WHICH WILL HAVE STRENGTHENED
INTO A CLOSED LOW AND WILL MOVE OVER OR NEAR THE MN ARROWHEAD. THE
SFC COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NRN PLAINS LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE WRN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z FRI...BUT BETTER
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LAGS THE FRONT BY AROUND 6 HOURS. AS A
RESULT...MINIMAL PRECIP IS EXPECTED BEFORE FROM 12Z THU TO 12Z FRI
AS THE RIDGE WILL BE MOVING OVERHEAD AND THE CWA WILL BE BETWEEN THE
AREAS OF FORCING. THE ONLY PLACE WHERE SOME VERY MINOR RAIN MAY FALL
IS OVER ERN UPPER MI IF ANY SHORTWAVE ENERGY CAN ROTATE AROUND THE
GREAT LAKES LOW.
THE NRN PLAINS LOW WILL SHIFT ACROSS UPPER MI ON FRI INTO FRI
EVENING. MODELS AGREE WELL ON THIS OCCURRING...BUT DO VARY SLIGHTLY
ON TIMING WITH THE 12Z/14 ECMWF BEING FASTER...THE 00Z/15 NAM BEING
SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF BY ABOUT 6 HOURS AND THE 00Z/15 GFS BETWEEN
THE TWO. 850MB TEMPS FALL FROM A MAX OF AROUND 10C AT 00Z FRI TO
3-4C AT 18Z FRI AND THEN TO AROUND -2C OVER NWRN UPPER MI BEHIND THE
SECONDARY COLD FRONT BY 00Z SAT /WITH THE MEAN TIMING BETWEEN THE
MODELS/. THE COMBINATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND UPSLOPE FLOW
THAT BECOMES INCREASINGLY LAKE ENHANCED EASILY JUSTIFIES LIKELY POPS
FOR RAIN OVER NW PRECIP BELTS. EXPECT SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
ELSEWHERE.
CAA CONTINUES FRI NIGHT WITH 850MB TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND -5C BY
12Z SAT...ALTHOUGH THE NAM IS SLOWER AND THEREFORE WARMER. WINDS
TURN MORE N-NNW FRI NIGHT...SO THE LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED AREAS SHIFT
SLIGHTLY FROM FRI EVENING. FRI NIGHT...PRECIP SHOULD TURN TO ALL
SNOW OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NCENTRAL AND WRN UPPER MI...MEANING
THE FIRST MEASURABLE SNOWFALL FOR THE SEASON WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THESE AREAS. ELSEWHERE...A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH NO
ACCUMULATIONS. EVEN THE LARGER SCALE ECMWF AND GLOBAL GEM SHOW UP TO
0.2 INCHES OF QPF BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z SAT...SO EXPECT MORE IN THE
FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS...ESPECIALLY IF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH
AS IS HINTED AT BY GUIDANCE. WHILE IT IS STILL PRETTY FAR OUT TO BE
TALKING ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS...AN OR MAYBE TWO OF SNOW IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION LATE FRI NIGHT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR...MAINLY ON GRASSY OR ELEVATED SURFACES.
SATURDAY IS THE TRICKIER FORECAST SINCE UPPER LEVEL FORCING IS OUT
OF THE AREA...MODELS VARY ON HOW COLD THE AIRMASS WILL BE AND DRY
AIR WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE NW. THE ECMWF SHOWS 850MB TEMPS
GENERALLY WARMING THROUGH THE DAY TO A RANGE OF 0C W TO -4C E. THE
GFS IS COLDER IN SHOWING A SWATH OF -7C TO -8C 850MB TEMPS MOVING W
TO E ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE DAY...ALTHOUGH THE PREVIOUS RUN DID
NOT HAVE THIS. MODELS AGREE FAIRLY WELL ON MOISTURE...WITH
1000-700MB RH VALUES DROPPING BELOW 40 PERCENT OVER WRN LAKE
SUPERIOR BY 18Z SAT...ALTHOUGH THE GFS DOES NOT MOVE THE DRY AIR E
IN THE EVENING LIKE THE ECMWF DOES. THINK THE LES WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE W...WHILE PERSISTING
MORE OVER THE E. ADDITIONAL SNOW IS EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE W AND NCENTRAL...BUT WITH DAYTIME HEATING NOT MUCH OF THAT
SHOULD ACCUMULATE...ESPECIALLY ON THE ROADS.
BY LATE SAT NIGHT...A SFC RIDGE WILL HAVE MOVED OVER THE WRN CWA AS
MOISTURE DROPS OUT AND 850MB TEMPS INCREASE. THINK THERE MAY BE SOME
LINGERING ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS...SO WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS SHIFT.
FOR SUN THROUGH TUE...JUST USED CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE AS
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN SHORTWAVE ENERGY MAY BRING SOME PRECIP LATE SUN
INTO MON...WITH TUE LOOKING DRIER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 121 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2014
WITH DRY AIR ACROSS WRN UPER MI...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT IWD AND
CMX. HOWEVER...AT KCMX AND KIWD...THERE IS A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR
LIFR CIGS TO REAPPEAR LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WED MORNING AS NOCTURNAL
COOLING AND UPSLOPE FLOW MAY LEAD TO STRATUS FORMATION. WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE...CONDITIONS WERE KEPT VFR...BUT KEPT SCT 200FT CLOUDS AT
KIWD WHERE UPSLOPING IS MORE FAVORABLE. KSAW REMAINS IN THE MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER IL. SO...THE GREATER
MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW INTO SAW SHOULD KEEP MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE
FCST PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2014
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TODAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES STARTS TO WEAKEN WHILE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW
20 KTS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES
ACROSS THE LAKE ON FRIDAY AND THEN MERGES WITH THE LOW OVER THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES WHILE STRENGTHENING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG
N-NW WINDS TO DEVELOP FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN
GALES OF 35-40 KTS FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...TITUS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
351 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 441 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A SHARP TROF CENTERED OVER
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH A CLOSED LOW OVER IL. JET STREAK ACROSS
NRN ONTARIO/QUEBEC THAT WAS ONE OF THE BIG DRIVERS FOR THE MDT TO
HVY PCPN ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES LAST NIGHT IS SHIFTING E.
HOWEVER...FCST AREA STILL REMAINS UNDER UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THE DEPARTING JET STREAK AND ALSO IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE LEFT EXIT OF ANOTHER JET STREAK WITH A VERY
SHARP ISOTACH GRADIENT ORIENTED FROM THE LWR OHIO VALLEY TO LAKE MI
AND WRN LWR MI. PCPN MORE STRONGLY TIED TO THE LEFT EXIT OF THE
LATTER JET STREAK HAS BEEN SURGING N UP LAKE MI TODAY AND IS NOW
SPREADING INTO THE ERN FCST AREA.
TONIGHT...COMBINATION OF RATHER STRONG DEEP LAYER FORCING PER
QVECTORS AND LEFT EXIT OF THE WRN GREAT LAKES UPPER JET WHICH IS
TRANSLATING SLIGHTLY EASTWARD WILL SUPPORT BEST CHC OF RAIN OVER THE
ERN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA. SHRA COVERAGE WILL PROBABLY DIMINISH
SOME EARLY THIS EVENING PER RADAR TRENDS...BUT EXPECT NEW
DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR QUICKLY DURING THE EVENING GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF
FORCING. GREATEST COVERAGE SHOULD BE OVERNIGHT WHEN ANOTHER PUSH OF
MOISTURE ADVECTION ALSO OCCURS IN THE 850-700MB LAYER. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SOME LOCALLY MDT TO HVY PCPN. TO THE W...LOW-MID LEVEL
DRYING OCCURRING THIS AFTN WILL HOLD TONIGHT...SO DRY WEATHER WILL
PREVAIL THERE. MORE CHALLENGING PART OF THE FCST IS ACROSS THE CNTRL
WHERE DELINEATION BTWN DRY AND RAIN WILL OCCUR...SO A FAIRLY TIGHT
POP GRADIENT WILL BE PAINTED ACROSS MAINLY DICKINSON AND MARQUETTE
COUNTIES. ON ANOTHER NOTE...THE STRONGEST WINDS ON LAKE SUPERIOR
HAVE OCCURRED CLOSER TO THE UPPER MICHIGAN SHORE TODAY...LIMITING
WAVE HEIGHTS OVER WHAT THEY COULD BE IF THE STRONGER WINDS COVERED
MORE OF THE OPEN WATER. EVEN SO...CONTINUED STEADY WINDS WITH SOME
EXPANSION OF HIGHER SPEEDS OVER THE OPEN WATERS MAY PUSH WAVES UP
SOME TONIGHT...LEADING TO MINOR BEACH EROSION ALONG THE SHORES OF
MARQUETTE AND ALGER COUNTIES INTO WED.
ON WED...QVECTOR DIVERGENCE AND UPPER JET GRADUALLY SHIFT E THOUGH
SOME WEAK FORCING DOES LINGER OVER THE E. WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS IN
THE MORNING OVER THE E WITH ONLY LOW CHC POPS LINGERING IN THE AFTN.
THE W WILL REMAIN DRY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2014
THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE SRN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL MOVE
OVER OH BY 12Z THU AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NRN PLAINS.
BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS WILL BE THE RIDGE OVER THE NWRN CWA. BY 12Z
FRI...MODELS SHOW THE GREAT LAKES LOW HAVING MOVED TO THE
ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER E OF LAKE SUPERIOR WHILE MERGING WITH THE
SYSTEM COMING OUT OF THE NRN PLAINS...WHICH WILL HAVE STRENGTHENED
INTO A CLOSED LOW AND WILL MOVE OVER OR NEAR THE MN ARROWHEAD. THE
SFC COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NRN PLAINS LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE WRN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z FRI...BUT BETTER
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LAGS THE FRONT BY AROUND 6 HOURS. AS A
RESULT...MINIMAL PRECIP IS EXPECTED BEFORE FROM 12Z THU TO 12Z FRI
AS THE RIDGE WILL BE MOVING OVERHEAD AND THE CWA WILL BE BETWEEN THE
AREAS OF FORCING. THE ONLY PLACE WHERE SOME VERY MINOR RAIN MAY FALL
IS OVER ERN UPPER MI IF ANY SHORTWAVE ENERGY CAN ROTATE AROUND THE
GREAT LAKES LOW.
THE NRN PLAINS LOW WILL SHIFT ACROSS UPPER MI ON FRI INTO FRI
EVENING. MODELS AGREE WELL ON THIS OCCURRING...BUT DO VARY SLIGHTLY
ON TIMING WITH THE 12Z/14 ECMWF BEING FASTER...THE 00Z/15 NAM BEING
SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF BY ABOUT 6 HOURS AND THE 00Z/15 GFS BETWEEN
THE TWO. 850MB TEMPS FALL FROM A MAX OF AROUND 10C AT 00Z FRI TO
3-4C AT 18Z FRI AND THEN TO AROUND -2C OVER NWRN UPPER MI BEHIND THE
SECONDARY COLD FRONT BY 00Z SAT /WITH THE MEAN TIMING BETWEEN THE
MODELS/. THE COMBINATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND UPSLOPE FLOW
THAT BECOMES INCREASINGLY LAKE ENHANCED EASILY JUSTIFIES LIKELY POPS
FOR RAIN OVER NW PRECIP BELTS. EXPECT SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
ELSEWHERE.
CAA CONTINUES FRI NIGHT WITH 850MB TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND -5C BY
12Z SAT...ALTHOUGH THE NAM IS SLOWER AND THEREFORE WARMER. WINDS
TURN MORE N-NNW FRI NIGHT...SO THE LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED AREAS SHIFT
SLIGHTLY FROM FRI EVENING. FRI NIGHT...PRECIP SHOULD TURN TO ALL
SNOW OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NCENTRAL AND WRN UPPER MI...MEANING
THE FIRST MEASURABLE SNOWFALL FOR THE SEASON WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THESE AREAS. ELSEWHERE...A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH NO
ACCUMULATIONS. EVEN THE LARGER SCALE ECMWF AND GLOBAL GEM SHOW UP TO
0.2 INCHES OF QPF BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z SAT...SO EXPECT MORE IN THE
FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS...ESPECIALLY IF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH
AS IS HINTED AT BY GUIDANCE. WHILE IT IS STILL PRETTY FAR OUT TO BE
TALKING ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS...AN OR MAYBE TWO OF SNOW IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION LATE FRI NIGHT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR...MAINLY ON GRASSY OR ELEVATED SURFACES.
SATURDAY IS THE TRICKIER FORECAST SINCE UPPER LEVEL FORCING IS OUT
OF THE AREA...MODELS VARY ON HOW COLD THE AIRMASS WILL BE AND DRY
AIR WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE NW. THE ECMWF SHOWS 850MB TEMPS
GENERALLY WARMING THROUGH THE DAY TO A RANGE OF 0C W TO -4C E. THE
GFS IS COLDER IN SHOWING A SWATH OF -7C TO -8C 850MB TEMPS MOVING W
TO E ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE DAY...ALTHOUGH THE PREVIOUS RUN DID
NOT HAVE THIS. MODELS AGREE FAIRLY WELL ON MOISTURE...WITH
1000-700MB RH VALUES DROPPING BELOW 40 PERCENT OVER WRN LAKE
SUPERIOR BY 18Z SAT...ALTHOUGH THE GFS DOES NOT MOVE THE DRY AIR E
IN THE EVENING LIKE THE ECMWF DOES. THINK THE LES WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE W...WHILE PERSISTING
MORE OVER THE E. ADDITIONAL SNOW IS EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE W AND NCENTRAL...BUT WITH DAYTIME HEATING NOT MUCH OF THAT
SHOULD ACCUMULATE...ESPECIALLY ON THE ROADS.
BY LATE SAT NIGHT...A SFC RIDGE WILL HAVE MOVED OVER THE WRN CWA AS
MOISTURE DROPS OUT AND 850MB TEMPS INCREASE. THINK THERE MAY BE SOME
LINGERING ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS...SO WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS SHIFT.
FOR SUN THROUGH TUE...JUST USED CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE AS
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN SHORTWAVE ENERGY MAY BRING SOME PRECIP LATE SUN
INTO MON...WITH TUE LOOKING DRIER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 121 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2014
WITH DRY AIR ACROSS WRN UPER MI...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT IWD AND
CMX. HOWEVER...AT KCMX AND KIWD...THERE IS A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR
LIFR CIGS TO REAPPEAR LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WED MORNING AS NOCTURNAL
COOLING AND UPSLOPE FLOW MAY LEAD TO STRATUS FORMATION. WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE...CONDITIONS WERE KEPT VFR...BUT KEPT SCT 200FT CLOUDS AT
KIWD WHERE UPSLOPING IS MORE FAVORABLE. KSAW REMAINS IN THE MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER IL. SO...THE GREATER
MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW INTO SAW SHOULD KEEP MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE
FCST PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2014
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TODAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES STARTS TO WEAKEN WHILE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW
20 KTS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES
ACROSS THE LAKE ON FRIDAY AND THEN MERGES WITH THE LOW OVER THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES WHILE STRENGTHENING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG
N-NW WINDS TO DEVELOP FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN
GALES OF 35-40 KTS FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...TITUS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
128 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 441 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A SHARP TROF CENTERED OVER
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH A CLOSED LOW OVER IL. JET STREAK ACROSS
NRN ONTARIO/QUEBEC THAT WAS ONE OF THE BIG DRIVERS FOR THE MDT TO
HVY PCPN ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES LAST NIGHT IS SHIFTING E.
HOWEVER...FCST AREA STILL REMAINS UNDER UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THE DEPARTING JET STREAK AND ALSO IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE LEFT EXIT OF ANOTHER JET STREAK WITH A VERY
SHARP ISOTACH GRADIENT ORIENTED FROM THE LWR OHIO VALLEY TO LAKE MI
AND WRN LWR MI. PCPN MORE STRONGLY TIED TO THE LEFT EXIT OF THE
LATTER JET STREAK HAS BEEN SURGING N UP LAKE MI TODAY AND IS NOW
SPREADING INTO THE ERN FCST AREA.
TONIGHT...COMBINATION OF RATHER STRONG DEEP LAYER FORCING PER
QVECTORS AND LEFT EXIT OF THE WRN GREAT LAKES UPPER JET WHICH IS
TRANSLATING SLIGHTLY EASTWARD WILL SUPPORT BEST CHC OF RAIN OVER THE
ERN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA. SHRA COVERAGE WILL PROBABLY DIMINISH
SOME EARLY THIS EVENING PER RADAR TRENDS...BUT EXPECT NEW
DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR QUICKLY DURING THE EVENING GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF
FORCING. GREATEST COVERAGE SHOULD BE OVERNIGHT WHEN ANOTHER PUSH OF
MOISTURE ADVECTION ALSO OCCURS IN THE 850-700MB LAYER. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SOME LOCALLY MDT TO HVY PCPN. TO THE W...LOW-MID LEVEL
DRYING OCCURRING THIS AFTN WILL HOLD TONIGHT...SO DRY WEATHER WILL
PREVAIL THERE. MORE CHALLENGING PART OF THE FCST IS ACROSS THE CNTRL
WHERE DELINEATION BTWN DRY AND RAIN WILL OCCUR...SO A FAIRLY TIGHT
POP GRADIENT WILL BE PAINTED ACROSS MAINLY DICKINSON AND MARQUETTE
COUNTIES. ON ANOTHER NOTE...THE STRONGEST WINDS ON LAKE SUPERIOR
HAVE OCCURRED CLOSER TO THE UPPER MICHIGAN SHORE TODAY...LIMITING
WAVE HEIGHTS OVER WHAT THEY COULD BE IF THE STRONGER WINDS COVERED
MORE OF THE OPEN WATER. EVEN SO...CONTINUED STEADY WINDS WITH SOME
EXPANSION OF HIGHER SPEEDS OVER THE OPEN WATERS MAY PUSH WAVES UP
SOME TONIGHT...LEADING TO MINOR BEACH EROSION ALONG THE SHORES OF
MARQUETTE AND ALGER COUNTIES INTO WED.
ON WED...QVECTOR DIVERGENCE AND UPPER JET GRADUALLY SHIFT E THOUGH
SOME WEAK FORCING DOES LINGER OVER THE E. WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS IN
THE MORNING OVER THE E WITH ONLY LOW CHC POPS LINGERING IN THE AFTN.
THE W WILL REMAIN DRY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014
THE FORECAST FOR LATE THIS WEEK REMAINS COMPLICATED AS THE UPPER LOW
PERSISTS OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THURSDAY...LEADING TO
THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA UNDER CONTINUED CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT...WHILE THE WESTERN AREA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK
RIDGING. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE EAST UNDER GENERALLY CLOUDY SKIES WED NIGHT INTO
THU...WHILE THE WEST MAY END UP WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.
HOWEVER...EVEN WITH THE EAST SEEING RAIN CHANCES...THIS AREA WILL BE
QUITE FAR REMOVED FROM THE UPPER LOW ITSELF AND ANY RAIN SHOWERS
WILL BE SCATTERED AT BEST...NOT ANYTHING LIKE AN ALL DAY RAIN LIKE
THE EAST HAS SEEN TODAY.
FINALLY...BY FRIDAY...AN UPPER DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER MS VLY AND MERGE WITH THE
GREAT LAKES UPPER LOW. THIS WILL ALLOW THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO
MOVE THROUGH AND ALSO ALLOW FOR MOISTURE TO WRAP AROUND THE MEAN
UPPER LOW AS IT MOVES TO HUDSON BAY. AS SUCH...ALONG AND BEHIND THE
SFC AND UPPER TOUGH THERE WILL BE BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN. IN
FACT...THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH SHOW UP TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH OF
RAIN FOR THE WEST FRI AFTN/EVENING. THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE
COLDER 850MB TEMPS DROPPING IN TO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT AS WELL
AS CYCLONIC UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE WESTERN UPPER PENINSULA. AS
SUCH...WILL RAISE POPS TO HIGH CHC OR LIKELY ACROSS THE WEST. WITH
THE CYCLONIC FLOW AND INDICATIONS FROM THE 12Z ECMWF THAT AN
ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT...WILL MAINTAIN
HIGHER POPS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR DUE TO LAKE ENHANCED PCPN. IN
FACT...IF THE COLDER ECMWF VERIFIES WITH 1000-850MB THICKNESS VALUES
BELOW 1300M...THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF MARQUETTE WILL LIKELY SEE
THEIR FIRST MEASURABLE SNOWFALL OF THE YEAR FRI NIGHT. AS
SUCH...WILL ALSO MENTION SNOW A LITTLE MORE ON FRI NIGHT IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF MARQUETTE.
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...EXPECT LAKE EFFECT PCPN TO GRADUALLY END
SATURDAY/SAT EVENING AS THE LOW MOVES OUT AND HIGH PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE BUILDS IN. WILL MAINTAIN HIGH POPS ACROSS THE
KEWEENAW AND THE EAST DUE TO THE NW PBL FLOW AND 850MB TEMPS -2C TO
-5C. RIDGING BUILDS IN BRIEFLY ON SUNDAY...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
QUIET AND WARMER DAY. HOWEVER...THE NWP START TO DISAGREE ON MON
REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE NEXT TOUGH DIVING DOWN INTO THE
TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE SUPPRESSED THAN
THE ECMWF...WITH THE GFS GENERALLY DRY FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE THE
ECWMF SHOWS AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE FOR RAIN WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM A
LITTLE FURTHER NORTH. FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FCST BUT IT
POSSIBLE THAT POPS WILL NEED TO BE INTRODUCED AT SOME POINT FOR MON.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 121 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2014
WITH DRY AIR ACROSS WRN UPER MI...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT IWD AND
CMX. HOWEVER...AT KCMX AND KIWD...THERE IS A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR
LIFR CIGS TO REAPPEAR LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WED MORNING AS NOCTURNAL
COOLING AND UPSLOPE FLOW MAY LEAD TO STRATUS FORMATION. WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE...CONDITIONS WERE KEPT VFR...BUT KEPT SCT 200FT CLOUDS AT
KIWD WHERE UPSLOPING IS MORE FAVORABLE. KSAW REMAINS IN THE MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER IL. SO...THE GREATER
MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW INTO SAW SHOULD KEEP MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE
FCST PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 20-30 KT TONIGHT ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REMAINS
STATIONARY. THE LOW STARTS TO WEAKEN ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO
WEAKEN DURING THE DAY AND REMAIN BELOW 20 KT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE ON FRIDAY AND THEN
MERGES WITH THE LOW OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WHILE STRENGTHENING.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR N-NW WINDS TO DEVELOP FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
WINDS COULD INCREASE TO NEAR GALE FORCE SAT BEFORE DIMINISHING
SUNDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...MRD
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...MRD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
619 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2014
TEMPERATURES WILL PROVIDE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES INTO THE MID
PART OF NEXT WEEK. THERE IS SOME CHANCE OF PCPN BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY.
AN IMPRESSIVE 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS NOTED OVER THE DAKOTAS
WITH 12 HR HEIGHT FALLS OF ABOUT 150 METERS OVER WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA THIS MORNING. LATEST RUC INITIALIZATION IN COMBINATION WITH
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED THE CENTER OF THE CIRCULATION WAS OVER
NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME LIGHTNING STRIKES
WERE NOTED JUST AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE.
850 MB CHART FROM 12Z THIS MORNING SHOWED A THERMAL RIDGE FROM WEST
TEXAS UP INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. THIS HAS ALREADY BEEN SHIFTING
SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA AS OF MID AFTERNOON. FAIRLY DEEP
MIXING ALONG/BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA HELPED
PUSH TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE 70S...BUT COOLING WAS ALREADY TAKING
PLACE IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. MODEST LOW LEVEL GRADIENT TONIGHT MAY
HELP KEEP WINDS UP...SO RAISED THEM A BIT COMPARED TO LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE. THE AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS CURRENTLY OFF TO OUR
NORTH MAY MOVE INTO OUR NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES LATER
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING (MOSTLY NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM ALBION
TO FREMONT AND RED OAK).
OTHERWISE...WE LOOK FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES (COMPARED TO TODAY) FOR
BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS BUILDS INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT SO KEPT LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER AND MID 30S (AT OR
BELOW MOS GUIDANCE). SURFACE WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
AND INCREASE LATER SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING...THEN ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA SHIFTING WINDS TO THE
NORTH OR NORTHWEST. GOOD MIXING WITH THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH HIGHS
INTO THE 60S MOST AREAS WITH SOME HIGHS AROUND 70 WESTERN ZONES.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2014
THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY AT THE BEGINNING BUT MAY TURN
WET BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY.
LATEST MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE
PATTERN AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...WITH A 500 MB RIDGE FROM
WYOMING UP INTO ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN. A CLOSED LOW WILL BE
NEAR THE ARIZONA/CALIFORNIA/MEXICO BORDER REGION AND A TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM ALASKA DOWN TO NEAR 30 N 135 W. SOME
ENERGY WILL MOVE EAST OUT OF THAT TROUGH IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC
AND BE OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION BY WEDNESDAY. THIS
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL PROVIDE OUT NEXT GOOD CHANCE FOR PCPN. ALTHOUGH
THE MODELS ARE NOT IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT BY THAT TIME (GFS IS WET
FOR OUR AREA WHILE THE ECMWF HOLDS THE PCPN MAINLY TO OUR WEST)...
THE GENERAL PATTERN SUGGESTS LOW CHANCE CATEGORY POPS ARE NEEDED
FOR NOW. HIGHS FROM MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY 60S
TO LOWER 790S WITH LOWS IN THE 40S OR UPPER 30S.
&&
.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2014
A REINFORCING FRONT IN SD WILL PUSH ACROSS ERN NEBRASKA LATE
TONIGHT AND BRING AN INCREASE IN SFC WINDS WHICH WERE DECREASING
AT INITIAL ISSUANCE. STRATOCUMULUS NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL MAKE IT INTO NERN NEBR LATER THIS EVENING AND COULD BRING
CIGS TO KOFK...BUT INITIALLY THEY ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE FL030.
HOWEVER...EITHER LATE TONIGHT OR FRIDAY MORNING A PERIOD OF MVFR
CIGS WILL LIKELY MOVE ACROSS KOFK AND KOMA AND POSSIBLY EVEN KLNK.
AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE CIGS AT KOMA AND KOFK COULD LINGER AT
LEAST INTO MID AFTN.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...CHERMOK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1258 PM CDT WED OCT 15 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT WED OCT 15 2014
LOW PRESSURE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS
THIS AFTN. THIS WOULD DIRECT THE WARMEST AIR ACROSS NWRN NEB
WHERE HIGHS COULD REACH MID 80S IN A FEW SPOTS. VERTICAL MIXING
IS THE ONLY LIMITING FACTOR FOR HIGHS TODAY AS H7 TEMPERATURES
RISE TOWARD 14C ACROSS SWRN NEB. IN SUMMER MONTHS...HIGHS NEAR OR
ABOVE 100F WOULD OCCUR BUT THE MODELS SHOW SOUTH WINDS TO 800MB
WHICH SHOULD LIMIT MIXING AND KEEP HIGHS IN THE 80S. 70S ARE
EXPECTED EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. THE FORECAST USES A SLIGHTLY DEEPER
MIXING PROFILE THAN SHOWN BY THE NAM AND GFS WHICH PRODUCES HIGHS
CLOSE TO WHAT IS SHOWN BY THE MET...ECS AND MAV GUIDANCE.
SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO NEAR 35 MPH ACROSS THE NORTH.
TONIGHT...THE THERMAL RIDGE MOVES DIRECTLY OVER THE FCST AREA
FOLLOWED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT. LOWS IN THE 40S ARE EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT WED OCT 15 2014
OVERALL LONG TERM PATTERN IS DOMINATED BY RIDGING AND WARM
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA EARLY IN THE DAY ON THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH TEMPS
WILL STILL WARM ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER
70S. SOME MARGINAL PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THE FROPA AND
LIKELY TO SEE AN INCREASE OF HIGH CLOUDS. WILL ALSO HAVE AN
INCREASE OF NW WINDS...WHILE BREEZY...NOT EXPECTING ADVISORY
CRITERIA.
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND THE RIDGE REDEVELOPS ACROSS THE
ROCKIES. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL...THEN A WARMING TREND
IS EXPECTED. BY THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK THE RIDGE WILL DRIFT
EASTWARD AND HIGHS SOAR IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...MAYBE
WARMER.
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S TO
MID 40S...EXCEPT FOR LOCALLY FAVORED COOL SPOTS WHICH WILL
OCCASIONALLY DIP TO NEAR FREEZING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT WED OCT 15 2014
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND LOWER PRESSURE TO THE WEST...WILL
RESULT IN SOUTH WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KTS ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. INCREASING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD A VEIL OF
HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT WED OCT 15 2014
FIRE DANGER COULD APPROACH CRITICAL LEVELS THIS AFTN ALONG AND
WEST OF HIGHWAY 61. THE FCST USES 50 PERCENT OF THE DETERMINISTIC
MODELS PLUS GUIDANCE AND 50 PERCENT OF THE RAP AND HRRR SOLNS
WHICH WERE THE DRIEST MODEL SOLNS. AS MENTIONED...SOUTH WINDS
MOVING NORTH UP THE CNTL HIGH PLAINS ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP DEW
POINTS IN THE 30S VS THE CLASSIC DOWNSLOPE OFF THE ROCKIES WHICH
IS NOT SHOWN BY ANY OF THE MODELS.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...TAYLOR
FIRE WEATHER...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
614 AM CDT WED OCT 15 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT WED OCT 15 2014
LOW PRESSURE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS
THIS AFTN. THIS WOULD DIRECT THE WARMEST AIR ACROSS NWRN NEB
WHERE HIGHS COULD REACH MID 80S IN A FEW SPOTS. VERTICAL MIXING
IS THE ONLY LIMITING FACTOR FOR HIGHS TODAY AS H7 TEMPERATURES
RISE TOWARD 14C ACROSS SWRN NEB. IN SUMMER MONTHS...HIGHS NEAR OR
ABOVE 100F WOULD OCCUR BUT THE MODELS SHOW SOUTH WINDS TO 800MB
WHICH SHOULD LIMIT MIXING AND KEEP HIGHS IN THE 80S. 70S ARE
EXPECTED EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. THE FORECAST USES A SLIGHTLY DEEPER
MIXING PROFILE THAN SHOWN BY THE NAM AND GFS WHICH PRODUCES HIGHS
CLOSE TO WHAT IS SHOWN BY THE MET...ECS AND MAV GUIDANCE.
SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO NEAR 35 MPH ACROSS THE NORTH.
TONIGHT...THE THERMAL RIDGE MOVES DIRECTLY OVER THE FCST AREA
FOLLOWED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT. LOWS IN THE 40S ARE EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT WED OCT 15 2014
OVERALL LONG TERM PATTERN IS DOMINATED BY RIDGING AND WARM
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA EARLY IN THE DAY ON THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH TEMPS
WILL STILL WARM ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER
70S. SOME MARGINAL PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THE FROPA AND
LIKELY TO SEE AN INCREASE OF HIGH CLOUDS. WILL ALSO HAVE AN
INCREASE OF NW WINDS...WHILE BREEZY...NOT EXPECTING ADVISORY
CRITERIA.
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND THE RIDGE REDEVELOPS ACROSS THE
ROCKIES. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL...THEN A WARMING TREND
IS EXPECTED. BY THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK THE RIDGE WILL DRIFT
EASTWARD AND HIGHS SOAR IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...MAYBE
WARMER.
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S TO
MID 40S...EXCEPT FOR LOCALLY FAVORED COOL SPOTS WHICH WILL
OCCASIONALLY DIP TO NEAR FREEZING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 613 AM CDT WED OCT 15 2014
VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS TODAY AND TONIGHT
AND SEND A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FCST AREA LATE TONIGHT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT WED OCT 15 2014
FIRE DANGER COULD APPROACH CRITICAL LEVELS THIS AFTN ALONG AND
WEST OF HIGHWAY 61. THE FCST USES 50 PERCENT OF THE DETERMINISTIC
MODELS PLUS GUIDANCE AND 50 PERCENT OF THE RAP AND HRRR SOLNS
WHICH WERE THE DRIEST MODEL SOLNS. AS MENTIONED...SOUTH WINDS
MOVING NORTH UP THE CNTL HIGH PLAINS ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP DEW
POINTS IN THE 30S VS THE CLASSIC DOWNSLOPE OFF THE ROCKIES WHICH
IS NOT SHOWN BY ANY OF THE MODELS.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...CDC
FIRE WEATHER...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
344 AM CDT WED OCT 15 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT WED OCT 15 2014
LOW PRESSURE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS
THIS AFTN. THIS WOULD DIRECT THE WARMEST AIR ACROSS NWRN NEB
WHERE HIGHS COULD REACH MID 80S IN A FEW SPOTS. VERTICAL MIXING
IS THE ONLY LIMITING FACTOR FOR HIGHS TODAY AS H7 TEMPERATURES
RISE TOWARD 14C ACROSS SWRN NEB. IN SUMMER MONTHS...HIGHS NEAR OR
ABOVE 100F WOULD OCCUR BUT THE MODELS SHOW SOUTH WINDS TO 800MB
WHICH SHOULD LIMIT MIXING AND KEEP HIGHS IN THE 80S. 70S ARE
EXPECTED EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. THE FORECAST USES A SLIGHTLY DEEPER
MIXING PROFILE THAN SHOWN BY THE NAM AND GFS WHICH PRODUCES HIGHS
CLOSE TO WHAT IS SHOWN BY THE MET...ECS AND MAV GUIDANCE.
SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO NEAR 35 MPH ACROSS THE NORTH.
TONIGHT...THE THERMAL RIDGE MOVES DIRECTLY OVER THE FCST AREA
FOLLOWED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT. LOWS IN THE 40S ARE EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT WED OCT 15 2014
OVERALL LONG TERM PATTERN IS DOMINATED BY RIDGING AND WARM
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA EARLY IN THE DAY ON THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH TEMPS
WILL STILL WARM ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER
70S. SOME MARGINAL PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THE FROPA AND
LIKELY TO SEE AN INCREASE OF HIGH CLOUDS. WILL ALSO HAVE AN
INCREASE OF NW WINDS...WHILE BREEZY...NOT EXPECTING ADVISORY
CRITERIA.
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND THE RIDGE REDEVELOPS ACROSS THE
ROCKIES. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL...THEN A WARMING TREND
IS EXPECTED. BY THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK THE RIDGE WILL DRIFT
EASTWARD AND HIGHS SOAR IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...MAYBE
WARMER.
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S TO
MID 40S...EXCEPT FOR LOCALLY FAVORED COOL SPOTS WHICH WILL
OCCASIONALLY DIP TO NEAR FREEZING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1256 AM CDT WED OCT 15 2014
AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST OF THE GREAT PLAINS WINDS WILL
SWITCH TO THE SOUTH ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
DURING THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE SETS UP WEST OF THE AREA WILL
STRENGTHEN THE WINDS DURING THE DAY. ALONG WITH THIS...BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING TO AROUND 2K FEET AGL WILL PROMOTE WIND GUSTS UP TO
25KTS WITH THE STRONGER WIND GUSTS UP OVER THE PANHANDLE AND
NORTHERN NEBRASKA. THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...THINKING THE GUSTS
WILL SUBSIDE BUT SUSTAINED WINDS WILL STAY ABOVE 12KTS THROUGH
06Z. CLOUD WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL
BE HIGH CIRRUS SO VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT WED OCT 15 2014
FIRE DANGER COULD APPROACH CRITICAL LEVELS THIS AFTN ALONG AND
WEST OF HIGHWAY 61. THE FCST USES 50 PERCENT OF THE DETERMINISTIC
MODELS PLUS GUIDANCE AND 50 PERCENT OF THE RAP AND HRRR SOLNS
WHICH WERE THE DRIEST MODEL SOLNS. AS MENTIONED...SOUTH WINDS
MOVING NORTH UP THE CNTL HIGH PLAINS ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP DEW
POINTS IN THE 30S VS THE CLASSIC DOWNSLOPE OFF THE ROCKIES WHICH
IS NOT SHOWN BY ANY OF THE MODELS.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...CDC
FIRE WEATHER...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
916 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 916 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2014
FRESHENED UP FORECAST PRECIPITATION GRIDS BASED ON LATEST RADAR
TRENDS AND MODEL DATA. PRECIP HAS ALREADY SHOWN SIGNS OF
DECREASING AND BELIEVE THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT AS THE PRECIP AREA SHIFTS EAST. STILL EXPECTING RATHER
GUSTY WINDS TONIGHT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 657 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2014
UPDATED FORECAST PRIMARILY FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES. AN AREA OF
RAIN HAS BEEN MOVING SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE RED RIVER
VALLEY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER
NORTHERN MN. RAIN HAS BEEN MEASURING ON THE LIGHT SIDE...UNDER A
TENTH OF AN INCH IN MOST LOCATIONS SO FAR. EXPECT RAIN TO DECREASE
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND SHIFT EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MN...
WHILE WINDS INCREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. EXPECT
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO PEAK AROUND MIDNIGHT IN MOST AREAS...BUT
REMAINING RATHER WINDY INTO TOMORROW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2014
SHOWER CHANCES AND WIND POTENTIAL THIS EVENING/TONIGHT WILL BE
THE MAIN CHALLENGES. 12Z MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT.
A SECONDARY PUSH OF COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
FROM CANADA THIS EVENING...WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW TO 925MB
(WITH 925MB WIND SPEEDS @40-45 KNOTS)...AND MIXING UP TO
850MB...ALONG WITH A SFC PRESSURE RISE 4-5MB/3-HR (ACROSS NE ND
AND NW MN). THIS WILL MOSTLY OCCUR AFTER SUNSET AND WITH CLOUD
COVER...SO MIXING POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED. THE MOST LIKELY
SCENARIO WILL BE BRIEF WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS WITH THE INITIAL
PUSH OF COLD AIR ADVECTION...WITH NEAR ADVISORY CONDITIONS A
MAJORITY OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOPWRF INDICATES A LOW
PROBABILITY (30%) FOR ADVISORY WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
VALLEY...WHICH WOULD TEND TO AGREE WITH THE EXPECTED SCENARIO.
A BAND OF PERSISTENT SHOWERS JUST NORTH OF THE UPPER LOW HAS
PRODUCED 0.20-0.40 INCHES OF RAINFALL ACROSS A PORTION OF THE
DEVILS LAKE BASIN. LATEST HRRR INDICATES THIS BAND WILL SLOWLY
PIVOT SOUTH/SOUTHEAST...AND DISSIPATE. RADAR INDICATES THAT THIS
IS BEGINNING TO OCCUR...AND WILL ADJUST POPS/WX TOWARD THIS
SOLUTION. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT...SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT NOT SURE WHEN AND WHERE (HRRR/RAP
INDICATES MORE ISOLATED/SCATTERED COVERAGE). IF A PERSISTENT BAND
OF SHOWERS AGAIN DEVELOPS...WILL ADJUST POPS UPWARD.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
COLDER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED...WITH BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2014
SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SHORTWAVE WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS CANADA ON
SATURDAY AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY. BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS ON SATURDAY...WITH A WIND SHIFT AND BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURE SHOULD BE WARMER EACH DAY
(STRONGEST COLD AIR ADVECTION NOT EXPECTED UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT).
THE AIRMASS WILL BE RELATIVELY DRY...AND WITH THE STRONGEST
FORCING TO THE NORTH SHOWER CHANCES ARE EXTREMELY LIMITED.
SUNDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...SYNOPTIC MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT
AGREEMENT THIS PERIOD. DEPARTING UPPER WAVE...BUILDING HEIGHTS AND
SURFACE HIGH BUILDING IN SPELL DECREASING WINDS. SURFACE HIGH
TRANSITS CWFA...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MINIMAL MIXING TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY. RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS
OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY LEADING TO BREEZY SOUTH WINDS. BLOCKING LOW
OVER EASTERN U.S. AND SPLIT FLOW LEAD TO SLOW MOVING UPPER AND
SURFACE PATTERN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS BOTH
DAYS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO AND ACROSS THE CWFA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WITH GFS/ECMWF TIMING SIMILAR. LEFT BLEND POPS
ALONE DUE TO THE INHERENT UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT IN TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 636 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2014
THE LATEST TAF ISSUANCE HIGHLIGHTS LOWERING CIGS AND GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN
MINNESOTA WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST...RESULTING WINDS BECOMING
NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTHERLY ACROSS THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL PEAK
AROUND MIDNIGHT IN MOST AREAS. CIGS UPSTREAM IN SOUTHWESTERN MB
ARE IN THE 015-020 RANGE. HAVE LOWERED CIG FORECASTS FOR MOST TAF
SITES BASED ON LATEST NAM MODEL AND OBS. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES
HAVE BEEN SEEN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. BELIEVE THIS ACTIVITY WILL
DWINDLE BASED ON THE SREFS MOST UNSTABLE CAPE FORECAST. THE LAST
FEW STRIKES HAVE BEEN JUST NORTH OF PEMBINA IN MB AND NEAR
WARROAD. BELIEVE GFK/TVF/BJI WOULD BE THE CLOSEST TAFS TO ANY
THUNDER THREAT. WILL MONITOR AND UPDATE IF CONDITIONS CHANGE.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KNUTSVIG
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...EWENS/TG
AVIATION...KNUTSVIG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
657 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 657 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2014
UPDATED FORECAST PRIMARILY FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES. AN AREA OF
RAIN HAS BEEN MOVING SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE RED RIVER
VALLEY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER
NORTHERN MN. RAIN HAS BEEN MEASURING ON THE LIGHT SIDE...UNDER A
TENTH OF AN INCH IN MOST LOCATIONS SO FAR. EXPECT RAIN TO DECREASE
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND SHIFT EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MN...
WHILE WINDS INCREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. EXPECT
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO PEAK AROUND MIDNIGHT IN MOST AREAS...BUT
REMAINING RATHER WINDY INTO TOMORROW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2014
SHOWER CHANCES AND WIND POTENTIAL THIS EVENING/TONIGHT WILL BE
THE MAIN CHALLENGES. 12Z MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT.
A SECONDARY PUSH OF COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
FROM CANADA THIS EVENING...WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW TO 925MB
(WITH 925MB WIND SPEEDS @40-45 KNOTS)...AND MIXING UP TO
850MB...ALONG WITH A SFC PRESSURE RISE 4-5MB/3-HR (ACROSS NE ND
AND NW MN). THIS WILL MOSTLY OCCUR AFTER SUNSET AND WITH CLOUD
COVER...SO MIXING POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED. THE MOST LIKELY
SCENARIO WILL BE BRIEF WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS WITH THE INITIAL
PUSH OF COLD AIR ADVECTION...WITH NEAR ADVISORY CONDITIONS A
MAJORITY OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOPWRF INDICATES A LOW
PROBABILITY (30%) FOR ADVISORY WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
VALLEY...WHICH WOULD TEND TO AGREE WITH THE EXPECTED SCENARIO.
A BAND OF PERSISTENT SHOWERS JUST NORTH OF THE UPPER LOW HAS
PRODUCED 0.20-0.40 INCHES OF RAINFALL ACROSS A PORTION OF THE
DEVILS LAKE BASIN. LATEST HRRR INDICATES THIS BAND WILL SLOWLY
PIVOT SOUTH/SOUTHEAST...AND DISSIPATE. RADAR INDICATES THAT THIS
IS BEGINNING TO OCCUR...AND WILL ADJUST POPS/WX TOWARD THIS
SOLUTION. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT...SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT NOT SURE WHEN AND WHERE (HRRR/RAP
INDICATES MORE ISOLATED/SCATTERED COVERAGE). IF A PERSISTENT BAND
OF SHOWERS AGAIN DEVELOPS...WILL ADJUST POPS UPWARD.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
COLDER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED...WITH BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2014
SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SHORTWAVE WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS CANADA ON
SATURDAY AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY. BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS ON SATURDAY...WITH A WIND SHIFT AND BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURE SHOULD BE WARMER EACH DAY
(STRONGEST COLD AIR ADVECTION NOT EXPECTED UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT).
THE AIRMASS WILL BE RELATIVELY DRY...AND WITH THE STRONGEST
FORCING TO THE NORTH SHOWER CHANCES ARE EXTREMELY LIMITED.
SUNDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...SYNOPTIC MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT
AGREEMENT THIS PERIOD. DEPARTING UPPER WAVE...BUILDING HEIGHTS AND
SURFACE HIGH BUILDING IN SPELL DECREASING WINDS. SURFACE HIGH
TRANSITS CWFA...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MINIMAL MIXING TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY. RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS
OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY LEADING TO BREEZY SOUTH WINDS. BLOCKING LOW
OVER EASTERN U.S. AND SPLIT FLOW LEAD TO SLOW MOVING UPPER AND
SURFACE PATTERN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS BOTH
DAYS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO AND ACROSS THE CWFA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WITH GFS/ECMWF TIMING SIMILAR. LEFT BLEND POPS
ALONE DUE TO THE INHERENT UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT IN TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 636 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2014
THE LATEST TAF ISSUANCE HIGHLIGHTS LOWERING CIGS AND GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN
MINNESOTA WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST...RESULTING WINDS BECOMING
NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTHERLY ACROSS THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL PEAK
AROUND MIDNIGHT IN MOST AREAS. CIGS UPSTREAM IN SOUTHWESTERN MB
ARE IN THE 015-020 RANGE. HAVE LOWERED CIG FORECASTS FOR MOST TAF
SITES BASED ON LATEST NAM MODEL AND OBS. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES
HAVE BEEN SEEN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. BELIEVE THIS ACTIVITY WILL
DWINDLE BASED ON THE SREFS MOST UNSTABLE CAPE FORECAST. THE LAST
FEW STRIKES HAVE BEEN JUST NORTH OF PEMBINA IN MB AND NEAR
WARROAD. BELIEVE GFK/TVF/BJI WOULD BE THE CLOSEST TAFS TO ANY
THUNDER THREAT. WILL MONITOR AND UPDATE IF CONDITIONS CHANGE.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KNUTSVIG
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...EWENS/TG
AVIATION...KNUTSVIG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
636 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2014
SHOWER CHANCES AND WIND POTENTIAL THIS EVENING/TONIGHT WILL BE
THE MAIN CHALLENGES. 12Z MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT.
A SECONDARY PUSH OF COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
FROM CANADA THIS EVENING...WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW TO 925MB
(WITH 925MB WIND SPEEDS @40-45 KNOTS)...AND MIXING UP TO
850MB...ALONG WITH A SFC PRESSURE RISE 4-5MB/3-HR (ACROSS NE ND
AND NW MN). THIS WILL MOSTLY OCCUR AFTER SUNSET AND WITH CLOUD
COVER...SO MIXING POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED. THE MOST LIKELY
SCENARIO WILL BE BRIEF WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS WITH THE INITIAL
PUSH OF COLD AIR ADVECTION...WITH NEAR ADVISORY CONDITIONS A
MAJORITY OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOPWRF INDICATES A LOW
PROBABILITY (30%) FOR ADVISORY WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
VALLEY...WHICH WOULD TEND TO AGREE WITH THE EXPECTED SCENARIO.
A BAND OF PERSISTENT SHOWERS JUST NORTH OF THE UPPER LOW HAS
PRODUCED 0.20-0.40 INCHES OF RAINFALL ACROSS A PORTION OF THE
DEVILS LAKE BASIN. LATEST HRRR INDICATES THIS BAND WILL SLOWLY
PIVOT SOUTH/SOUTHEAST...AND DISSIPATE. RADAR INDICATES THAT THIS
IS BEGINNING TO OCCUR...AND WILL ADJUST POPS/WX TOWARD THIS
SOLUTION. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT...SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT NOT SURE WHEN AND WHERE (HRRR/RAP
INDICATES MORE ISOLATED/SCATTERED COVERAGE). IF A PERSISTENT BAND
OF SHOWERS AGAIN DEVELOPS...WILL ADJUST POPS UPWARD.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
COLDER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED...WITH BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2014
SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SHORTWAVE WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS CANADA ON
SATURDAY AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY. BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS ON SATURDAY...WITH A WIND SHIFT AND BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURE SHOULD BE WARMER EACH DAY
(STRONGEST COLD AIR ADVECTION NOT EXPECTED UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT).
THE AIRMASS WILL BE RELATIVELY DRY...AND WITH THE STRONGEST
FORCING TO THE NORTH SHOWER CHANCES ARE EXTREMELY LIMITED.
SUNDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...SYNOPTIC MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT
AGREEMENT THIS PERIOD. DEPARTING UPPER WAVE...BUILDING HEIGHTS AND
SURFACE HIGH BUILDING IN SPELL DECREASING WINDS. SURFACE HIGH
TRANSITS CWFA...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MINIMAL MIXING TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY. RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS
OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY LEADING TO BREEZY SOUTH WINDS. BLOCKING LOW
OVER EASTERN U.S. AND SPLIT FLOW LEAD TO SLOW MOVING UPPER AND
SURFACE PATTERN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS BOTH
DAYS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO AND ACROSS THE CWFA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WITH GFS/ECMWF TIMING SIMILAR. LEFT BLEND POPS
ALONE DUE TO THE INHERENT UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT IN TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 636 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2014
THE LATEST TAF ISSUANCE HIGHLIGHTS LOWERING CIGS AND GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN
MINNESOTA WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST...RESULTING WINDS BECOMING
NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTHERLY ACROSS THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL PEAK
AROUND MIDNIGHT IN MOST AREAS. CIGS UPSTREAM IN SOUTHWESTERN MB
ARE IN THE 015-020 RANGE. HAVE LOWERED CIG FORECASTS FOR MOST TAF
SITES BASED ON LATEST NAM MODEL AND OBS. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES
HAVE BEEN SEEN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. BELIEVE THIS ACTIVITY WILL
DWINDLE BASED ON THE SREFS MOST UNSTABLE CAPE FORECAST. THE LAST
FEW STRIKES HAVE BEEN JUST NORTH OF PEMBINA IN MB AND NEAR
WARROAD. BELIEVE GFK/TVF/BJI WOULD BE THE CLOSEST TAFS TO ANY
THUNDER THREAT. WILL MONITOR AND UPDATE IF CONDITIONS CHANGE.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...EWENS/TG
AVIATION...KNUTSVIG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
208 PM EDT WED OCT 15 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM LOWER MICHIGAN
TO EASTERN ILLINOIS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT AND TO
JAMES BAY BY FRIDAY NIGHT. A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL
ROTATE AROUND THIS LOW AND ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL STAY OVER THE EASTERN
LAKES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST TO REFLECT
CURRENT CONDITIONS.
PREVIOUS...THE MAIN PRECIP BAND CONTINUES TO MAKE SLOW NE
PROGRESS OUT OF THE AREA. MOST OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE GONE BY
12Z ALTHOUGH SOME PRECIP COULD LINGER OVER NW PA MUCH OF THE
MORNING. PRECIP TOTALS SO FAR HAVE BEEN MODEST WITH MOST LOCATIONS
SEEING AROUND HALF AN INCH. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY SHOULD BE
MARGINAL AND NOT ANTICIPATING ANY PROBLEMS. MOST OF THE AREA WILL
ENJOY A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER TODAY. MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE SREF AND HRRR SHOW SHOWERS REDEVELOPING
AROUND MIDDAY. COVERAGE SHOULD BE NO MORE THAN SCATTERED. WILL TRY
FOR A DRY MORNING ALL BUT THE EASTERN END OF THE AREA WITH 30ISH
POPS THIS AFTERNOON. NO THUNDER EXPECTED TODAY.
SOME CLEARING HAS OCCURRED OVER THE WESTERN END OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING. EXPECT THESE CLEAR AREAS TO FILL BACK IN BY DAYBREAK.
COULD SEE A FEW PEAKS OF SUNSHINE DURING THE DAY JUST ABOUT
ANYWHERE BUT MOSTLY CLOUDY WILL BE THE FLAVOR OF THE DAY. HAVE
STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE SURFACE LOW WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY BUT THE PESKY UPPER LOW WILL LINGER OVER THE
REGION INTO THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT WILL SEE PROLONGED PERIODS OF
DRY WEATHER FOLLOWED BY PERIODS OF SHOWERS AS INDIVIDUAL PIECES OF
ENERGY ROTATE ACROSS THE AREA. TIMING THESE IMPULSES REMAINS A
CHALLENGE AND UNFORTUNATELY WILL HAVE TO GO WITH SEVERAL PERIODS
OF CHANCE POPS. AM HOPING BY EARLY FRIDAY THAT MOST OF THE SHOWERS
WILL BE CONFINED TO THE EASTERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE AREA GIVEN
THE EXPECTED LOCATION OF THE UPPER LOW. PRECIP CHANCES WILL RETURN
TO THE ENTIRE AREA ON SATURDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH
INTO THE AREA. BY THAT TIME THE SURFACE LOW WILL OVER JAMES BAY.
DO NOT THINK THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE A WASHOUT BY ANY MEANS AND
PERIODS OR GLIMPSES OF SUN ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. HAVE USED A
BLEND OF GUIDANCE TEMPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS PERIOD. THE MODELS START IN
AGREEMENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDING INTO THE AREA
ON SUNDAY. SOME LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS WILL LINGER IN EXTREME NE OH AND
NW PA SUNDAY IN THE COLD NORTHWEST FLOW AS THE LAKE AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE WILL BE NEAR 19C. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN
MODELS MOVE THE HIGH TO THE EAST QUICKER THEN THE GFS AND THIS
ALLOWS A FRONT TO BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH A
THREAT OF SHOWERS. CONTINUED THE PREVIOUS THINKING WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AND DECREASING CHANCE ON TUESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD IN QUICKLY BY LATE TUESDAY.
FOR SUNDAY WENT COOLER FOR THE HIGHS WITH THE 850 MB TEMPERATURE
AVERAGING AROUND ZERO.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER INDIANA WILL MOVE TO LAKE ONTARIO OVERNIGHT.
IN THE MEANTIME...SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE MOVING NORTH AHEAD OF
THE LOW. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHWEST OHIO
EXPANDING INTO NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL OHIO. CEILINGS RANGE FROM
MVFR TO VFR AND WILL LIKELY IMPROVE OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS AS THE
ATMOSPERE BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONVECTIVE THIS AFTERNOON. CEILINGS
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BACK INTO THE MVFR RANGE THIS EVENING AND IFR
OVERNIGHT AS THE WEAK LOW MOVES OVERHEAD. VISIBILITIES ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE MVFR/IFR RANGE 09-13Z. LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT TO LIGHT WESTERLY INTO THURSDAY.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR AT TIMES THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
FRIDAY...THEN AGAIN ON SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE ON THE LAKE TODAY INTO TONIGHT
WITH THE UPPER LOW AND SURFACE LOW OVER OHIO. ON THURSDAY WITH THE
LOWS TO THE EAST THE FLOW WILL BE NORTHWEST BUT NOT EXPECTING THE
WINDS TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PROMPT THE NEED FOR A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY...HOWEVER...THE LAKE WILL BE CHOPPY.
A FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE FRIDAY. THE SOUTHWEST WINDS COULD
BE STRONG ENOUGH AHEAD OF THE FRONT FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR AN ADVISORY WILL BE BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS THREAT
WILL LAST INTO SUNDAY ESPECIALLY ON THE EAST END OF THE LAKE. THE
STRENGTH OF THE WINDS ARE A QUESTION ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS THE MODELS ARE QUITE VARIABLE. IF THE GFS IS CORRECT
WINDS WILL APPROACH GALE FORCE. ALL THE OTHER MODELS ARE NOT AS
STRONG. AT THIS POINT WITH SOME QUESTIONS CONTINUED THE 15 TO 25
KNOT FORECAST.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KIELTYKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
949 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM LOWER MICHIGAN
TO EASTERN ILLINOIS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT AND TO
JAMES BAY BY FRIDAY NIGHT. A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL
ROTATE AROUND THIS LOW AND ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL STAY OVER THE EASTERN
LAKES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST TO REFLECT
CURRENT CONDITIONS.
PREVIOUS...THE MAIN PRECIP BAND CONTINUES TO MAKE SLOW NE
PROGRESS OUT OF THE AREA. MOST OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE GONE BY
12Z ALTHOUGH SOME PRECIP COULD LINGER OVER NW PA MUCH OF THE
MORNING. PRECIP TOTALS SO FAR HAVE BEEN MODEST WITH MOST LOCATIONS
SEEING AROUND HALF AN INCH. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY SHOULD BE
MARGINAL AND NOT ANTICIPATING ANY PROBLEMS. MOST OF THE AREA WILL
ENJOY A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER TODAY. MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE SREF AND HRRR SHOW SHOWERS REDEVELOPING
AROUND MIDDAY. COVERAGE SHOULD BE NO MORE THAN SCATTERED. WILL TRY
FOR A DRY MORNING ALL BUT THE EASTERN END OF THE AREA WITH 30ISH
POPS THIS AFTERNOON. NO THUNDER EXPECTED TODAY.
SOME CLEARING HAS OCCURRED OVER THE WESTERN END OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING. EXPECT THESE CLEAR AREAS TO FILL BACK IN BY DAYBREAK.
COULD SEE A FEW PEAKS OF SUNSHINE DURING THE DAY JUST ABOUT
ANYWHERE BUT MOSTLY CLOUDY WILL BE THE FLAVOR OF THE DAY. HAVE
STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE SURFACE LOW WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY BUT THE PESKY UPPER LOW WILL LINGER OVER THE
REGION INTO THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT WILL SEE PROLONGED PERIODS OF
DRY WEATHER FOLLOWED BY PERIODS OF SHOWERS AS INDIVIDUAL PIECES OF
ENERGY ROTATE ACROSS THE AREA. TIMING THESE IMPULSES REMAINS A
CHALLENGE AND UNFORTUNATELY WILL HAVE TO GO WITH SEVERAL PERIODS
OF CHANCE POPS. AM HOPING BY EARLY FRIDAY THAT MOST OF THE SHOWERS
WILL BE CONFINED TO THE EASTERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE AREA GIVEN
THE EXPECTED LOCATION OF THE UPPER LOW. PRECIP CHANCES WILL RETURN
TO THE ENTIRE AREA ON SATURDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH
INTO THE AREA. BY THAT TIME THE SURFACE LOW WILL OVER JAMES BAY.
DO NOT THINK THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE A WASHOUT BY ANY MEANS AND
PERIODS OR GLIMPSES OF SUN ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. HAVE USED A
BLEND OF GUIDANCE TEMPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS PERIOD. THE MODELS START IN
AGREEMENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDING INTO THE AREA
ON SUNDAY. SOME LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS WILL LINGER IN EXTREME NE OH AND
NW PA SUNDAY IN THE COLD NORTHWEST FLOW AS THE LAKE AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE WILL BE NEAR 19C. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN
MODELS MOVE THE HIGH TO THE EAST QUICKER THEN THE GFS AND THIS
ALLOWS A FRONT TO BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH A
THREAT OF SHOWERS. CONTINUED THE PREVIOUS THINKING WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AND DECREASING CHANCE ON TUESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD IN QUICKLY BY LATE TUESDAY.
FOR SUNDAY WENT COOLER FOR THE HIGHS WITH THE 850 MB TEMPERATURE
AVERAGING AROUND ZERO.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE SHOWERS HAVE MOVED EAST. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ESPECIALLY OVER NE OH AND NW PA CAUSING SOME IFR
CEILINGS...ELSEWHERE A MIX OF VFR TO MVFR. THE TREND WILL BE FOR
ALL AREAS TO LIFT TO VFR CEILINGS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
AS THE SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LOW MOVE TOWARDS OHIO SOME SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND LAST INTO THE EVENING. SOME
SUNSHINE ON TOP OF THE CLOUDS WILL HELP. AT THIS TIME THEY SEEM
LIKE THEY WILL BE MORE ON THE SCATTERED SIDE...SO JUST WENT WITH
VCSH...SHOWERS VICINITY UNTIL IT IS CLEAR WHICH TAF SITES WILL
DEFINITELY HAVE SOME SHOWERS.
MOST MODELS TRY TO INDICATE THE CEILINGS LOWERING TO MVFR LATE
TONIGHT. WENT ALONG WITH THAT BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR AT TIMES THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND
OVER EXTREME NE OH AND NW PA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE ON THE LAKE TODAY INTO TONIGHT
WITH THE UPPER LOW AND SURFACE LOW OVER OHIO. ON THURSDAY WITH THE
LOWS TO THE EAST THE FLOW WILL BE NORTHWEST BUT NOT EXPECTING THE
WINDS TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PROMPT THE NEED FOR A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY...HOWEVER...THE LAKE WILL BE CHOPPY.
A FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE FRIDAY. THE SOUTHWEST WINDS COULD
BE STRONG ENOUGH AHEAD OF THE FRONT FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR AN ADVISORY WILL BE BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS THREAT
WILL LAST INTO SUNDAY ESPECIALLY ON THE EAST END OF THE LAKE. THE
STRENGTH OF THE WINDS ARE A QUESTION ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS THE MODELS ARE QUITE VARIABLE. IF THE GFS IS CORRECT
WINDS WILL APPROACH GALE FORCE. ALL THE OTHER MODELS ARE NOT AS
STRONG. AT THIS POINT WITH SOME QUESTIONS CONTINUED THE 15 TO 25
KNOT FORECAST.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
749 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM LOWER MICHIGAN
TO EASTERN ILLINOIS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT AND TO
JAMES BAY BY FRIDAY NIGHT. A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL
ROTATE AROUND THIS LOW AND ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL STAY OVER THE EASTERN
LAKES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS LEFT THE AREA BUT SOME SPRINKLES
ARE LIKELY STILL FALLING ACROSS THE AREA. HRRR JUST COMING IN
SHOWING SOME MORE LIGHT SHOWERS COULD OCCUR THIS MORNING IN THE
WEST. COVERAGE WILL BE VERY SMALL BUT DID ADD AN ISOLATED MENTION
PRIOR TO NOON. THE CLEAR AREA CONTINUES TO SLOWLY FILL IN AS WELL
BUT SOME PEAKS OF SUN ARE LIKELY TODAY. NO CHANGES TO TEMPS OR THE
AFTERNOON FORECAST.
PREVIOUS...THE MAIN PRECIP BAND CONTINUES TO MAKE SLOW NE PROGRESS OUT OF THE
AREA. MOST OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE GONE BY 12Z ALTHOUGH SOME
PRECIP COULD LINGER OVER NW PA MUCH OF THE MORNING. PRECIP TOTALS
SO FAR HAVE BEEN MODEST WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING AROUND HALF AN
INCH. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY SHOULD BE MARGINAL AND NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY PROBLEMS. MOST OF THE AREA WILL ENJOY A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER TODAY. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE
SREF AND HRRR SHOW SHOWERS REDEVELOPING AROUND MIDDAY. COVERAGE
SHOULD BE NO MORE THAN SCATTERED. WILL TRY FOR A DRY MORNING ALL
BUT THE EASTERN END OF THE AREA WITH 30ISH POPS THIS AFTERNOON. NO
THUNDER EXPECTED TODAY.
SOME CLEARING HAS OCCURRED OVER THE WESTERN END OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING. EXPECT THESE CLEAR AREAS TO FILL BACK IN BY DAYBREAK.
COULD SEE A FEW PEAKS OF SUNSHINE DURING THE DAY JUST ABOUT
ANYWHERE BUT MOSTLY CLOUDY WILL BE THE FLAVOR OF THE DAY. HAVE
STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE SURFACE LOW WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY BUT THE PESKY UPPER LOW WILL LINGER OVER THE
REGION INTO THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT WILL SEE PROLONGED PERIODS OF
DRY WEATHER FOLLOWED BY PERIODS OF SHOWERS AS INDIVIDUAL PIECES OF
ENERGY ROTATE ACROSS THE AREA. TIMING THESE IMPULSES REMAINS A
CHALLENGE AND UNFORTUNATELY WILL HAVE TO GO WITH SEVERAL PERIODS
OF CHANCE POPS. AM HOPING BY EARLY FRIDAY THAT MOST OF THE SHOWERS
WILL BE CONFINED TO THE EASTERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE AREA GIVEN
THE EXPECTED LOCATION OF THE UPPER LOW. PRECIP CHANCES WILL RETURN
TO THE ENTIRE AREA ON SATURDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH
INTO THE AREA. BY THAT TIME THE SURFACE LOW WILL OVER JAMES BAY.
DO NOT THINK THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE A WASHOUT BY ANY MEANS AND
PERIODS OR GLIMPSES OF SUN ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. HAVE USED A
BLEND OF GUIDANCE TEMPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS PERIOD. THE MODELS START IN
AGREEMENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDING INTO THE AREA
ON SUNDAY. SOME LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS WILL LINGER IN EXTREME NE OH AND
NW PA SUNDAY IN THE COLD NORTHWEST FLOW AS THE LAKE AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE WILL BE NEAR 19C. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN
MODELS MOVE THE HIGH TO THE EAST QUICKER THEN THE GFS AND THIS
ALLOWS A FRONT TO BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH A
THREAT OF SHOWERS. CONTINUED THE PREVIOUS THINKING WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AND DECREASING CHANCE ON TUESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD IN QUICKLY BY LATE TUESDAY.
FOR SUNDAY WENT COOLER FOR THE HIGHS WITH THE 850 MB TEMPERATURE
AVERAGING AROUND ZERO.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE SHOWERS HAVE MOVED EAST. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ESPECIALLY OVER NE OH AND NW PA CAUSING SOME IFR
CEILINGS...ELSEWHERE A MIX OF VFR TO MVFR. THE TREND WILL BE FOR
ALL AREAS TO LIFT TO VFR CEILINGS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
AS THE SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LOW MOVE TOWARDS OHIO SOME SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND LAST INTO THE EVENING. SOME
SUNSHINE ON TOP OF THE CLOUDS WILL HELP. AT THIS TIME THEY SEEM
LIKE THEY WILL BE MORE ON THE SCATTERED SIDE...SO JUST WENT WITH
VCSH...SHOWERS VICINITY UNTIL IT IS CLEAR WHICH TAF SITES WILL
DEFINITELY HAVE SOME SHOWERS.
MOST MODELS TRY TO INDICATE THE CEILINGS LOWERING TO MVFR LATE
TONIGHT. WENT ALONG WITH THAT BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR AT TIMES THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND
OVER EXTREME NE OH AND NW PA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE ON THE LAKE TODAY INTO TONIGHT
WITH THE UPPER LOW AND SURFACE LOW OVER OHIO. ON THURSDAY WITH THE
LOWS TO THE EAST THE FLOW WILL BE NORTHWEST BUT NOT EXPECTING THE
WINDS TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PROMPT THE NEED FOR A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY...HOWEVER...THE LAKE WILL BE CHOPPY.
A FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE FRIDAY. THE SOUTHWEST WINDS COULD
BE STRONG ENOUGH AHEAD OF THE FRONT FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR AN ADVISORY WILL BE BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS THREAT
WILL LAST INTO SUNDAY ESPECIALLY ON THE EAST END OF THE LAKE. THE
STRENGTH OF THE WINDS ARE A QUESTION ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS THE MODELS ARE QUITE VARIABLE. IF THE GFS IS CORRECT
WINDS WILL APPROACH GALE FORCE. ALL THE OTHER MODELS ARE NOT AS
STRONG. AT THIS POINT WITH SOME QUESTIONS CONTINUED THE 15 TO 25
KNOT FORECAST.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
623 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM LOWER MICHIGAN
TO EASTERN ILLINOIS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT AND TO
JAMES BAY BY FRIDAY NIGHT. A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL
ROTATE AROUND THIS LOW AND ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL STAY OVER THE EASTERN
LAKES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS LEFT THE AREA BUT SOME SPRINKLES
ARE LIKELY STILL FALLING ACROSS THE AREA. HRRR JUST COMING IN
SHOWING SOME MORE LIGHT SHOWERS COULD OCCUR THIS MORNING IN THE
WEST. COVERAGE WILL BE VERY SMALL BUT DID ADD AN ISOLATED MENTION
PRIOR TO NOON. THE CLEAR AREA CONTINUES TO SLOWLY FILL IN AS WELL
BUT SOME PEAKS OF SUN ARE LIKELY TODAY. NO CHANGES TO TEMPS OR THE
AFTERNOON FORECAST.
PREVIOUS...THE MAIN PRECIP BAND CONTINUES TO MAKE SLOW NE PROGRESS OUT OF THE
AREA. MOST OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE GONE BY 12Z ALTHOUGH SOME
PRECIP COULD LINGER OVER NW PA MUCH OF THE MORNING. PRECIP TOTALS
SO FAR HAVE BEEN MODEST WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING AROUND HALF AN
INCH. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY SHOULD BE MARGINAL AND NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY PROBLEMS. MOST OF THE AREA WILL ENJOY A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER TODAY. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE
SREF AND HRRR SHOW SHOWERS REDEVELOPING AROUND MIDDAY. COVERAGE
SHOULD BE NO MORE THAN SCATTERED. WILL TRY FOR A DRY MORNING ALL
BUT THE EASTERN END OF THE AREA WITH 30ISH POPS THIS AFTERNOON. NO
THUNDER EXPECTED TODAY.
SOME CLEARING HAS OCCURRED OVER THE WESTERN END OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING. EXPECT THESE CLEAR AREAS TO FILL BACK IN BY DAYBREAK.
COULD SEE A FEW PEAKS OF SUNSHINE DURING THE DAY JUST ABOUT
ANYWHERE BUT MOSTLY CLOUDY WILL BE THE FLAVOR OF THE DAY. HAVE
STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE SURFACE LOW WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY BUT THE PESKY UPPER LOW WILL LINGER OVER THE
REGION INTO THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT WILL SEE PROLONGED PERIODS OF
DRY WEATHER FOLLOWED BY PERIODS OF SHOWERS AS INDIVIDUAL PIECES OF
ENERGY ROTATE ACROSS THE AREA. TIMING THESE IMPULSES REMAINS A
CHALLENGE AND UNFORTUNATELY WILL HAVE TO GO WITH SEVERAL PERIODS
OF CHANCE POPS. AM HOPING BY EARLY FRIDAY THAT MOST OF THE SHOWERS
WILL BE CONFINED TO THE EASTERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE AREA GIVEN
THE EXPECTED LOCATION OF THE UPPER LOW. PRECIP CHANCES WILL RETURN
TO THE ENTIRE AREA ON SATURDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH
INTO THE AREA. BY THAT TIME THE SURFACE LOW WILL OVER JAMES BAY.
DO NOT THINK THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE A WASHOUT BY ANY MEANS AND
PERIODS OR GLIMPSES OF SUN ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. HAVE USED A
BLEND OF GUIDANCE TEMPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS PERIOD. THE MODELS START IN
AGREEMENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDING INTO THE AREA
ON SUNDAY. SOME LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS WILL LINGER IN EXTREME NE OH AND
NW PA SUNDAY IN THE COLD NORTHWEST FLOW AS THE LAKE AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE WILL BE NEAR 19C. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN
MODELS MOVE THE HIGH TO THE EAST QUICKER THEN THE GFS AND THIS
ALLOWS A FRONT TO BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH A
THREAT OF SHOWERS. CONTINUED THE PREVIOUS THINKING WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AND DECREASING CHANCE ON TUESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD IN QUICKLY BY LATE TUESDAY.
FOR SUNDAY WENT COOLER FOR THE HIGHS WITH THE 850 MB TEMPERATURE
AVERAGING AROUND ZERO.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS JUST ABOUT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AT 2
AM EDT. THE BAND OF SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY DRIFT EAST. NO THUNDER IN THESE SHOWERS. VARYING CONDITIONS
FROM VFR TO IFR IN THE SHOWERS. THE ISSUES FOR THE REST OF THE
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE CEILINGS AND WHEN WILL THE SHOWERS
DEVELOP AGAIN.
A DECREASE IN CLOUDS OVER NW OH WILL LEAD TO STRATUS AND A LITTLE
BIT OF FOG. THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE A LITTLE TOO STRONG FOR
DENSE FOG TO FORM. CEILINGS WILL EVENTUALLY LIFT TO VFR IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING BY EVENING.
ELSEWHERE MVFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP ONCE THE RAIN ENDS AND THEN
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS
DEVELOPING BY LATE AFTERNOON. TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THE SHOWERS
ARE IN QUESTION AS THE SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LOW WILL BE ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR AT TIMES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT AND OVER EXTREME NE OH AND NW PA SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE ON THE LAKE TODAY INTO TONIGHT
WITH THE UPPER LOW AND SURFACE LOW OVER OHIO. ON THURSDAY WITH THE
LOWS TO THE EAST THE FLOW WILL BE NORTHWEST BUT NOT EXPECTING THE
WINDS TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PROMPT THE NEED FOR A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY...HOWEVER...THE LAKE WILL BE CHOPPY.
A FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE FRIDAY. THE SOUTHWEST WINDS COULD
BE STRONG ENOUGH AHEAD OF THE FRONT FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR AN ADVISORY WILL BE BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS THREAT
WILL LAST INTO SUNDAY ESPECIALLY ON THE EAST END OF THE LAKE. THE
STRENGTH OF THE WINDS ARE A QUESTION ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS THE MODELS ARE QUITE VARIABLE. IF THE GFS IS CORRECT
WINDS WILL APPROACH GALE FORCE. ALL THE OTHER MODELS ARE NOT AS
STRONG. AT THIS POINT WITH SOME QUESTIONS CONTINUED THE 15 TO 25
KNOT FORECAST.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
332 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM LOWER MICHIGAN
TO EASTERN ILLINOIS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT AND TO
JAMES BAY BY FRIDAY NIGHT. A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL
ROTATE AROUND THIS LOW AND ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL STAY OVER THE EASTERN
LAKES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE MAIN PRECIP BAND CONTINUES TO MAKE SLOW NE PROGRESS OUT OF THE
AREA. MOST OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE GONE BY 12Z ALTHOUGH SOME
PRECIP COULD LINGER OVER NW PA MUCH OF THE MORNING. PRECIP TOTALS
SO FAR HAVE BEEN MODEST WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING AROUND HALF AN
INCH. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY SHOULD BE MARGINAL AND NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY PROBLEMS. MOST OF THE AREA WILL ENJOY A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER TODAY. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE
SREF AND HRRR SHOW SHOWERS REDEVELOPING AROUND MIDDAY. COVERAGE
SHOULD BE NO MORE THAN SCATTERED. WILL TRY FOR A DRY MORNING ALL
BUT THE EASTERN END OF THE AREA WITH 30ISH POPS THIS AFTERNOON. NO
THUNDER EXPECTED TODAY.
SOME CLEARING HAS OCCURRED OVER THE WESTERN END OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING. EXPECT THESE CLEAR AREAS TO FILL BACK IN BY DAYBREAK.
COULD SEE A FEW PEAKS OF SUNSHINE DURING THE DAY JUST ABOUT
ANYWHERE BUT MOSTLY CLOUDY WILL BE THE FLAVOR OF THE DAY. HAVE
STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE SURFACE LOW WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY BUT THE PESKY UPPER LOW WILL LINGER OVER THE
REGION INTO THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT WILL SEE PROLONGED PERIODS OF
DRY WEATHER FOLLOWED BY PERIODS OF SHOWERS AS INDIVIDUAL PIECES OF
ENERGY ROTATE ACROSS THE AREA. TIMING THESE IMPULSES REMAINS A
CHALLENGE AND UNFORTUNATELY WILL HAVE TO GO WITH SEVERAL PERIODS
OF CHANCE POPS. AM HOPING BY EARLY FRIDAY THAT MOST OF THE SHOWERS
WILL BE CONFINED TO THE EASTERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE AREA GIVEN
THE EXPECTED LOCATION OF THE UPPER LOW. PRECIP CHANCES WILL RETURN
TO THE ENTIRE AREA ON SATURDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH
INTO THE AREA. BY THAT TIME THE SURFACE LOW WILL OVER JAMES BAY.
DO NOT THINK THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE A WASHOUT BY ANY MEANS AND
PERIODS OR GLIMPSES OF SUN ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. HAVE USED A
BLEND OF GUIDANCE TEMPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS PERIOD. THE MODELS START IN
AGREEMENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDING INTO THE AREA
ON SUNDAY. SOME LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS WILL LINGER IN EXTREME NE OH AND
NW PA SUNDAY IN THE COLD NORTHWEST FLOW AS THE LAKE AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE WILL BE NEAR 19C. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN
MODELS MOVE THE HIGH TO THE EAST QUICKER THEN THE GFS AND THIS
ALLOWS A FRONT TO BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH A
THREAT OF SHOWERS. CONTINUED THE PREVIOUS THINKING WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AND DECREASING CHANCE ON TUESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD IN QUICKLY BY LATE TUESDAY.
FOR SUNDAY WENT COOLER FOR THE HIGHS WITH THE 850 MB TEMPERATURE
AVERAGING AROUND ZERO.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS JUST ABOUT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AT 2
AM EDT. THE BAND OF SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY DRIFT EAST. NO THUNDER IN THESE SHOWERS. VARYING CONDITIONS
FROM VFR TO IFR IN THE SHOWERS. THE ISSUES FOR THE REST OF THE
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE CEILINGS AND WHEN WILL THE SHOWERS
DEVELOP AGAIN.
A DECREASE IN CLOUDS OVER NW OH WILL LEAD TO STRATUS AND A LITTLE
BIT OF FOG. THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE A LITTLE TOO STRONG FOR
DENSE FOG TO FORM. CEILINGS WILL EVENTUALLY LIFT TO VFR IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING BY EVENING.
ELSEWHERE MVFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP ONCE THE RAIN ENDS AND THEN
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS
DEVELOPING BY LATE AFTERNOON. TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THE SHOWERS
ARE IN QUESTION AS THE SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LOW WILL BE ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR AT TIMES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT AND OVER EXTREME NE OH AND NW PA SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE ON THE LAKE TODAY INTO TONIGHT
WITH THE UPPER LOW AND SURFACE LOW OVER OHIO. ON THURSDAY WITH THE
LOWS TO THE EAST THE FLOW WILL BE NORTHWEST BUT NOT EXPECTING THE
WINDS TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PROMPT THE NEED FOR A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY...HOWEVER...THE LAKE WILL BE CHOPPY.
A FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE FRIDAY. THE SOUTHWEST WINDS COULD
BE STRONG ENOUGH AHEAD OF THE FRONT FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR AN ADVISORY WILL BE BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS THREAT
WILL LAST INTO SUNDAY ESPECIALLY ON THE EAST END OF THE LAKE. THE
STRENGTH OF THE WINDS ARE A QUESTION ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS THE MODELS ARE QUITE VARIABLE. IF THE GFS IS CORRECT
WINDS WILL APPROACH GALE FORCE. ALL THE OTHER MODELS ARE NOT AS
STRONG. AT THIS POINT WITH SOME QUESTIONS CONTINUED THE 15 TO 25
KNOT FORECAST.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND OR
339 AM PDT WED OCT 15 2014
.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE SHOWERS OVER THE PACIFIC NW
TODAY. A SURFACE LOW MAY BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS THIS
MORNING TO MUCH OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD THURSDAY AND
BRING A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT BRINGS ADDITIONAL
RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS FRIDAY. SHOWERS WILL LINGER SATURDAY BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE BRINGS ANOTHER DRY PERIOD FOR SUNDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH...BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED OFFSHORE THE WASHINGTON AND
OREGON COAST..WITH THE SOUTHERN END OF THE TROUGH AXIS JUST ABOUT TO
MOVE OVER THE CA/OR BORDER. A RAIN BAND AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH HAS
BEEN GENERATING SHOWERS OVER THE PORTLAND FORECAST AREA. A NARROW
BAND OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVED OVER THE OREGON AND SOUTHERN
WATERS OVERNIGHT. THIS BAND HAS MOVED NORTH...BUT THE POSSIBILITY OF
ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE TROUGH
PUSHES INLAND...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS
THE REGION...DECREASING THIS EVENING. SNOW LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY
AROUND 6500 FEET AND SHOULD LOWER TO AROUND 5500 FEET THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS SHOWERS ARE DECREASING. EXPECT A DUSTING OF SNOW FOR
THE HIGHER CASCADES TODAY.
A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS DEVELOPING OFF THE NORTHERN OREGON COAST NEAR
45N 132W. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD TIGHTEN AS THIS LOW
MOVES NE TOWARDS THE WASHINGTON COAST THIS MORNING...AND EXPECT A
BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE COAST AND THROUGH THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY CLOSER TO SUNRISE THIS MORNING. THIS LOW IS WEAKER
THAN THE PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS FORECASTED...AND THERE IS A CHANCE THAT
OUR CURRENT WIND FORECAST IS OVERDONE 5 TO 10 MPH. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS ARE JUST SHOWING THE GRADIENT BEGINNING TO TIGHTEN AT 3
AM THIS MORNING...AND WANT TO WATCH OBSERVATIONS FOR A COUPLE OF MORE
HOURS BEFORE DECIDING WHETHER TO DROP OR KEEP THE WIND ADVISORY.
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THURSDAY AS ANOTHER
UPPER TROUGH DIGS OFFSHORE...RESULTING IN A BREAK IN RAIN THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT MOIST FRONT WILL STALL OFFSHORE THURSDAY
NIGHT BEFORE PUSHING ONSHORE EITHER FRIDAY MORNING OR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL BRING SNOW
LEVELS ABOVE 8000 FEET BEFORE THE ONSET OF RAIN. GUSTY WINDS WILL
ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT. THE NAM MODEL HINTS OF A COASTAL JET
POSSIBLY DEVELOPING JUST OFFSHORE FRIDAY EVENING WHICH COULD BRING A
BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONG GUSTS TO THE COAST.
THE 00Z GFS FORECASTS 1.25 INCH OF TROPICAL PRECIPITABLE WATER AND
DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 300K SURFACE...HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY RAIN. HOWEVER...SOME OF THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE TROUGH
SPLIT AS IT NEARS WHICH WOULD BRING THIS HEAVIER RAIN NORTH OR SOUTH
OF THE PORTLAND FORECAST AREA. THEREFORE...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH ON THE PROBABILITY OF RAIN BUT LOW ON RAIN AMOUNTS WITH THE
FRIDAY FRONT. RAIN WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT FRIDAY...BUT SHOWERS WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. TJ
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS
SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE RAIN AND COOLER
WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS MAY DIP BACK DOWN
TO AROUND 6000 FEET TUESDAY. TJ
&&
.AVIATION...VFR PREVAILING WITH A MIX OF MVFR WITH SHOWERS THROUGH
OUT THE DAY. LOCAL IFR VIS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS OR ANY
THUNDERSTORM THAT MAY DEVELOP. THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
IS COAST RANGE WESTWARD THIS MORNING. SHOWER ACTIVITY DECREASE
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE WIND SPEED FORECAST IS
THE CHALLENGE TODAY. MODELS VARY ON THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF A
DEVELOPING LOW OFF THE SOUTH OREGON COAST THAT WILL TRACK NORTH
ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY. WHILE GUSTY WINDS ON THE COAST ARE
EXPECTED...THERE IS A CHANCE SOUTH WINDS GUSTING 30 TO 35 KT IN
THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS THIS MORNING.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR PREVAILING WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS
WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS. AS STATED ABOVE WIND FORECAST IS THE
CHALLENGE. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KT 16Z-20Z TIME
FRAME BUT GUSTS 30 TO 35 KT IS POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...THE MAIN FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE A POORLY MODELED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM STRENGTHENING JUST OFFSHORE FROM THE OR/CA BORDER.
SO FAR OBSERVATIONS NEAR THE EXPECTED LOCATION OFF THE LOW OFF THE
CENTRAL OREGON COAST IS ARE LAGGING A LITTLE COMPARED TO MODELS.
THE LATEST HRRR MODEL RUN SEEMS TO BE THE BEST. THE LOCAL WRF IS
STRONGER AND FASTER THAN OBSERVED. AS STATED PREVIOUSLY THE GALE
WARNING MAY BE OVER DONE BUT GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES WILL KEEP THE
CURRENT HEADLINES. THERE IS ANOTHER LOW THAT THE MODELS ARE
HANDLING BETTER IS OFF THE NORTH OREGON COAST BRINGING ADVISORY
WINDS TO THE NEARSHORE AREAS. THE OVERALL TREND IN THE MODELS IS
TO INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS AS THE MORNING
PROGRESSES. WINDS WILL SHIFT SW AND EASE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM LATER
TODAY.
SEAS...W-NW SWELL WILL BE INCREASING FROM A WELL-ENTRENCHED BROAD
PARENT LOW DOMINATING THE GULF OF ALASKA AND NE PACIFIC. W-NW
SWELL 12-15 FT WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE
TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ROTATING AROUND THIS
BROADER UPPER LOW.
WINDS INCREASE AGAIN THU AHEAD OF A STRONGER LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOPING LATE THU OR FRI AND MOVING N TOWARDS SOUTHERN B.C.
RESULTING IN A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING THE COASTAL
WATERS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN SPECIFIC DETAILS OF THE SYSTEM IS
GRADUALLY IMPROVING WITH AT LEAST GALE GUSTS APPEARING
INCREASINGLY LIKELY. THAT SAID...SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AND WILL
CONTINUE TO EVALUATE MODEL GUIDANCE IN THE COMING DAYS AS THE
TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF THE LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL GREATLY INFLUENCE
POTENTIAL IMPACTS. WEAGLE/CULLEN/MH
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR CENTRAL
WILLAMETTE VALLEY-GREATER PORTLAND METRO AREA-SOUTH
WILLAMETTE VALLEY.
WA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR GREATER
VANCOUVER AREA.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON
FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10
TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM PDT
THURSDAY FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
FROM 10 TO 60 NM.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR COASTAL WATERS
FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 10 NM.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM PDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR COASTAL
WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 5 AM
PDT THURSDAY.
&&
$$
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
343 AM CDT WED OCT 15 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT WED OCT 15 2014
LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE EDGES IN FROM WESTERN MINNESOTA/WESTERN IOWA. RAIN
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND FAR
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN BEFORE ENDING LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. SKIES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER
CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO SUNNY OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA.
LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM LOWER 60S WHERE CLOUDS
CLEAR TO THE MID 50S WHERE CLOUD COVER LINGERS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT GRADUALLY WEAKENS THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY SO WINDS WON/T BE AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY BUT STILL
ON THE BREEZY SIDE AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 20 MPH.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG RIVER VALLEY
LOCATIONS. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT FROM THE SURFACE
THROUGH AROUND 5 KFT AT KLSE. THIS SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR
WIDESPREAD VALLEY FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WILL
HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON SOME HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING IN FROM THE
WEST WHICH COULD LIMIT VALLEY FOG COVERAGE. ANOTHER NEGATIVE FOR
FOG OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN IS LINGERING STRATUS. THIS LOOKS TO
HANG ON THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT AND THIS WOULD CERTAINLY IMPACT
FOG FORMATION OVER THESE AREAS. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT WED OCT 15 2014
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY WITH
A PLEASANT FALL DAY IN STORE FOR THE AREA. PLAN ON MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE 60S. A TROUGH THEN DIVES INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE TROUGH
WILL BRING COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR
SOME RAIN SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN INTO CENTRAL
WISCONSIN . HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 50S OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN TO THE UPPER 50S ACROSS
NORTHEAST IOWA. NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW THEN PERSISTS OVER THE REGION
INTO THE WEEKEND. A SHORTWAVE DROPS INTO THE REGION SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA. LOOK
FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER
RETURNS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE
AREA. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S WITH LOWS IN THE 30S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT TUE OCT 14 2014
STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER ILL WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE SLOW
PROGRESS EAST TONIGHT-WED. THE REGION IS ON THE BACKSIDE OF A SHARP
EDGED CLOUD BAND...JUST EAST OF AN EAU-AUM LINE AT LATE EVENING.
MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR KLSE
OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE EDGE WILL STAY CLOSE. UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY/DEFORMATION REGION OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL KEEP BANDS
OF -SHRA GOING WHERE THE CLOUDS ARE LOCATED. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME CU
FORMATION ON THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE CLOUD BAND WED...BUT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE ALREADY BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS FOR KRST/KLSE.
WIND SHEAR WILL REMAIN A CONCERN OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KLSE.
LATEST VAD WIND PROFILES AT KARX HAVE 45KT WINDS AT 925 MB...ROUGHLY
2 KFT. RAP BUFKIT SOUNDINGS PERSIST THESE WINDS OVERNIGHT. A BIT
LESS FOR KRST. WILL HOLD ONTO LLWS FOR KLSE OVERNIGHT.
WED NIGHT/THU MORNING SHOWING PROMISE FOR VALLEY FOG AT KLSE. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS POINTING TO A DEEP...LIGHT WIND FIELD...WITH A SFC HIGH
OVERNIGHT MOST OF THE NIGHT. RECENT RAINS WILL HELP WITH SATURATION
IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. SOMETHING TO WATCH.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION.....RIECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1130 PM CDT TUE OCT 14 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT TUE OCT 14 2014
UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT SLOWLY NORTH ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY WITH THE SURFACE LOW LOCATED OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. LOCAL AND REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS SHOWING TWO MAIN
AREAS OF SHOWERS...ONE OVER SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN INTO EASTERN IOWA
UNDERNEATH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WITH ANOTHER OVER LAKE MICHIGAN.
THE RAIN OVER WISCONSIN AND IOWA WAS DRIFTING SLOWLY TO THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WITH THE RAIN OVER LAKE MICHIGAN MOVING NORTH.
BOTH OF THESE AREAS ARE CLOSELY TIED TO SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. BASED ON THE MOVEMENT OF
THESE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS...EXPECT THE RAIN OVER WISCONSIN AND IOWA
TO CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH AND SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA/DISSIPATE
BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THIS TREND IS HANDLED WELL BY
THE 12Z HI-RES ARW AND HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE SCENARIO OF THE
RAIN MOVING OUT SOONER THAN THE PREVIOUS EXPECTED...BUT DID NOT
TOTALLY DRY THINGS OUT. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
RAIN OVER LAKE MICHIGAN IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN COMING DOWN THE BACK
SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVERNIGHT. AS IT DOES...THERE SHOULD
BE A CONTINUATION OF THE RAIN ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE SURFACE
LOW/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE HI-RES ARW AND MOST OF THE 14.12Z
MODELS INDICATE MOST OF THIS RAIN SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF WISCONSIN INTO ILLINOIS. CENTRAL WISCONSIN SHOULD BE ON
THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THIS POTENTIAL RAIN AREA...AND HAVE
MAINTAINED SOME 30 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCES ACROSS THE EASTERN PARTS
OF THE FORECAST AREA TO COVER THIS POSSIBILITY.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHOULD MOVE OFF INTO INDIANA WEDNESDAY BUT
WITH ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH COMING AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF
IT...SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. THE QUESTION BECOMES HOW FAR
WEST THESE SHOWERS WILL EXTEND. THE HI-RES ARW SUGGESTS THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT WILL CARRY A
SMALL RAIN CHANCE IN THE MORNING ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS AND
THEN GO DRY IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE SLIDING
SLOWLY EAST WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT TUE OCT 14 2014
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT BRIEFLY BUILDS IN OVER THE AREA BEHIND
THE CURRENT UPPER LEVEL LOW...WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ALLOWING
THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO MOVE ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER AND
OVER THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY. ALL THE 14.12Z MODELS SHOW THE BEST
PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER PRIMARILY STAYING NORTH OF
THE AREA...BUT SOME OF THIS COULD TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN.
NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO WORK
WITH...SO THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION SHOULD STAY NORTH IN
THE BETTER PV ADVECTION...BUT WILL SHOW A SMALL 20 PERCENT CHANCE
ACROSS THE NORTH.
NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL ALLOW ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
TROUGH TO DROP ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. PLENTY OF DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE MODELS ON THE TRACK OF THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND THE
TIMING. THE 14.12Z ECMWF IS FARTHER SOUTHWEST THAN EITHER THE
14.12Z GEM AND GFS AND THE GFS IS SLOWER THAN THE OTHER TWO
MODELS. FOR NOW...WILL SHOW A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT AND ADJUST WHEN THERE IS A BETTER CONSENSUS
BETWEEN THE MODELS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT TUE OCT 14 2014
STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER ILL WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE SLOW
PROGRESS EAST TONIGHT-WED. THE REGION IS ON THE BACKSIDE OF A SHARP
EDGED CLOUD BAND...JUST EAST OF AN EAU-AUM LINE AT LATE EVENING.
MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR KLSE
OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE EDGE WILL STAY CLOSE. UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY/DEFORMATION REGION OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL KEEP BANDS
OF -SHRA GOING WHERE THE CLOUDS ARE LOCATED. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME CU
FORMATION ON THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE CLOUD BAND WED...BUT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE ALREADY BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS FOR KRST/KLSE.
WIND SHEAR WILL REMAIN A CONCERN OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KLSE.
LATEST VAD WIND PROFILES AT KARX HAVE 45KT WINDS AT 925 MB...ROUGHLY
2 KFT. RAP BUFKIT SOUNDINGS PERSIST THESE WINDS OVERNIGHT. A BIT
LESS FOR KRST. WILL HOLD ONTO LLWS FOR KLSE OVERNIGHT.
WED NIGHT/THU MORNING SHOWING PROMISE FOR VALLEY FOG AT KLSE. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS POINTING TO A DEEP...LIGHT WIND FIELD...WITH A SFC HIGH
OVERNIGHT MOST OF THE NIGHT. RECENT RAINS WILL HELP WITH SATURATION
IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. SOMETHING TO WATCH.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION.....RIECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
537 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 536 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW THAT THE STRONG SHORTWAVE
THAT WAS OVER MT 24HRS AGO IS NOW A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW CENTERED
NEAR KDLH WITH ASSOCIATED SFC LOW NEAR KIWD. SO FAR...PCPN
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE HAS MOSTLY BEEN NOTHING MORE THAN SCT.
ONE ARC OF PCPN IS NEARING KIWD AS OF 09Z. MID LEVEL LOW THAT HAS
PLAGUED THE GREAT LAKES IN RECENT DAYS IS SHIFTING N IN RESPONSE TO
THE UPSTREAM WAVE AND IS NOW CENTERED JUST NE OF GEORGIAN BAY. LARGE
AREA OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS BACKING W THRU NRN
ONTARIO TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR. CLOSER TO HOME...IT`S BEEN A QUIET
NIGHT ACROSS UPPER MI UNDER A BLANKET OF LOW CLOUDS OVER ALL BUT THE
FAR W. SOME FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...AND SPOTTY -DZ HAS BEEN NOTED.
AS SYSTEM NEAR KDLH TRACKS SE INTO LWR MI BY EVENING...IT WILL
ENTRAIN SOME OF THE MOISTURE BACKING W ACROSS NRN ONTARIO. THE
DEEPENING MOISTURE PROFILE COMBINED WITH FORCING PROVIDED BY THE
WAVE WILL RESULT IN EXPANSION OF PCPN ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES TODAY.
PCPN WILL BECOME MOST WIDESPREAD ACROSS NRN UPPER MI DUE TO
STRENGTHENING NRLY UPSLOPE FLOW AND EVENTUALLY A WEAK LAKE
ENHANCEMENT COMPONENT AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TO 0C BY 00Z. WITH
DEVELOPMENT OF MORE WIDESPREAD PCPN AND STRENGTHENING NRLY
WINDS...TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO FALL THIS AFTN...SETTLING INTO THE LWR 40S
BY EVENING ACROSS THE N AND W.
TONIGHT...DEEP MOISTURE LINGERS IN THE EVENING...PROVIDING CONTINUED
UPSLOPE FLOW/LAKE ENHANCED PCPN OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. UTILIZING WET
BULB HEIGHTS...MAY SEE A LITTLE SNOW MIX WITH THE RAIN OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN OF THE KEWEENAW AND FROM THE HURON MTNS TOWARD IRON RIVER BY
LATE EVENING AS WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS FALL BLO 1500FT AGL IN THOSE
AREAS. OVERNIGHT...THERE IS EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT ON VERY
PRONOUNCED DRYING FROM THE NW BEGINNING ROUGHLY AROUND 06Z.
INVERSION CRASHES TO AROUND 3KFT. WITH TEMPS IN THE SHALLOW MOIST
LAYER -5 TO -7C AT THE LOWEST...IT`S VERY POSSIBLE PCPN WILL
COMPLETELY SHUTDOWN OR NEARLY SHUTDOWN FROM W TO E OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY SAT MORNING AS SUFFICIENTLY WARM WATER TO REACH THE LAKE
EFFECT THRESHOLD ONLY EXISTS CLOSE TO THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. THUS...IN EFFECT...THERE IS ONLY A SHORT FETCH. THE VERY
NOTABLE DECREASE IN PCPN COVERAGE ON ALL MODEL GUIDANCE CERTAINLY
REFLECTS THIS POSSIBILITY. FOR NOW...GRIDS WILL SHOW LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS IN THE EVENING ACROSS THE N FALLING TO CHC
OVERNIGHT...LOWEST W. IN THE INTERIOR AWAY FROM AREAS FAVORED BY NNW
UPSLOPE...SCT SHRA IN THE EVENING WILL END OVERNIGHT. WITH WET BULB
ZERO HEIGHTS CONTINUING TO FALL...MORE OF THE LINGERING PCPN WILL
MIX WITH OR EVEN CHANGE TO SNOW WHERE MOISTURE STILL EXTENDS TO THE
-10C OR LWR ISOTHERM. GIVEN THE RAPID DECREASE IN PCPN
COVERAGE/INTENSITY DURING THE OVERNIGHT...NOT EXPECTING ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION.
ON A FINAL NOTE...WITH STRONGER WINDS OF 30-40KT CENTERED AROUND
2KFT ARRIVING THIS AFTN COMBINED WITH WEAK CAA...WINDS WILL BECOME
GUSTY THIS AFTN...AT FIRST NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT EVENTUALLY OVER
MUCH OF THE FCST AREA. EXPECT STRONGEST WINDS GUSTING TO 35-40MPH
CLOSER TO LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY E OF THE KEWEENAW FROM
MARQUETTE TO GRAND MARAIS WHERE THE STRONGER CORE OF WINDS IS NOTED
IN MODEL GUIDANCE. WIND GUSTS INLAND AND CLOSER TO LAKE MICHIGAN
WILL BE UP TO AROUND 30MPH. GIVEN THE HIGH WATER LEVELS ON LAKE
SUPERIOR (HIGHEST SINCE THE MID 1990S) AND WAVES BUILDING TO 8-12
FEET LATE IN THE DAY INTO TONIGHT (HIGHEST E OF THE KEWEENAW)...
MINOR BEACH EROSION/FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ON THE
BEACHES FROM AROUND MARQUETTE TO GRAND MARAIS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE LONG TERM WL BE FOCUSED ON DIMINISHING
POPS/WINDS ON SAT AND THEN POPS AGAIN LATE SUN INTO MON IN ADVANCE
OF ANOTHER SHRTWV DIGGING INTO THE GREAT LKS. TEMPS SHOULD BE AOB
NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEK WITH THE COLDEST TEMPS ON SAT NGT UNDER HI
PRES RDG/DRY AIRMASS PASSING OVER THE UPR LKS. SOME WARMER WX WL
RETURN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK UNDER A BLDG UPR RDG.
SAT...ALTHOUGH PLENTY OF LK CLDS AND SOME SCT SHOWERS OF RAIN MIXED
WITH SNOW WL STILL BE ARND IN THE MRNG UNDER LINGERING H85 THERMAL
TROF...RISING HGTS/DNVA/LARGE SCALE QVECTOR DVGC IN ADVANCE OF
APRCHG SHRTWV RDG THAT IS FCST TO SHARPEN AND LOWER INVRN BASE BLO
H9 BY 00Z SUN WL END THIS PCPN AND BRING A RETURN OF SOME SUNSHINE
BY LATE IN THE DAY AS INVRN BASE SINKS BLO THE LCL. EXPECT LINGERING
GUSTY NNW WINDS IN THE MRNG TO ALSO DIMINISH STEADILY WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF HI PRES RDG OVER THE W LATE IN THE DAY.
SAT NGT...WITH RDG AXIS PASSING OVHD AND PWAT FCST AS LO AS 0.25
INCH SUPPORTING THE CLRG OF ANY LO CLDS THAT MIGHT LINGER EARLY OVER
THE E...EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL WELL INTO THE 20S OVER THE INTERIOR
CENTRAL AND E. RETURN SW FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SFC RDG
AXIS AND SOME HI CLDS ARRIVING LATE IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SHRTWV
DIGGING SEWD THRU SCENTRAL CANADA WL TEND TO LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP
DROP OVER THE W.
SUN INTO MON...NEXT SHRTWV DROPPING SEWD AND INTO THE UPR LKS/UPR
MIDWEST BY 12Z MON WL BRING INCRSG CLDS ON SUN AND THE NEXT CHC OF
SHOWERS SUN AFTN INTO MON MRNG. ALTHOUGH MSTR INFLOW INTO THIS
DISTURBANCE WL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED...FAIRLY VIGOROUS DPVA/QVECTOR
CNVGC AND SOME SHARPER ISENTROPIC ASCENT SHOWN BEST ON THE 295K SFC
/H775-725/ WARRANT RAISING POPS INTO THE HI LIKELY RANGE OVER THE
CENTRAL AND E CENTERED ARND 00Z MON WHERE AND WHEN THE DYNAMIC
FORCING WL BE SHARPEST. ALTHOUGH THE SHARPER UPPER FORCING WL EXIT
ON MON MRNG...LINGERING LLVL CYC NE FLOW AND SOME DEEPER MSTR SHOULD
MAINTAIN LOTS OF CLDS AND SOME SCT SHOWERS. ALTHOUGH H85 TEMPS ARE
PROGGED TO FALL TO ARND 0C BY 00Z TUE...ALL THE PCPN SHOULD BE IN
THE FORM OF RA WITH H85 TEMPS IN THE 2-5C RANGE MOST OF THE TIME.
MON NGT INTO TUE...ALTHOUGH HGTS WL BEGIN TO RISE IN THE WAKE OF THE
DIGGING SHRTWV INTO THE SE GREAT LKS...SOME MODELS SHOW SHARPER CYC
NE FLOW LINGERING INTO TUE MRNG. THIS SETUP MAY BE FAVORABLE FOR
MORE LK CLDS/EVEN A FEW SPRINKLES LINGERING A BIT LONGER FOR AREAS
NEAR LK SUP...MAINLY OVER THE NCENTRAL. BUT AS SFC HI PRES BUILDS
SLOWLY SE ON TUE...EXPECT ANY LINGERING CLDS TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE AND
GIVE WAY TO A MOSUNNY AFTN.
WED/THU...EXPECT MOCLR SKIES WITH SFC HI PRES UNDER UPR RDG
EXTENDING FM THE PLAINS INTO THE UPR GREAT LKS. WITH H85 TEMPS UP TO
8 TO 9C...EXPECT ABV NORMAL MAX TEMPS BOTH DAYS. BUT CLEAR SKIES/LGT
WINDS AT NGT WL SUPPORT A LARGE DIURNAL TEMP RANGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 138 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014
AT KIWD...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GIVE WAY TO IFR TOWARD
DAYBREAK AS LOW PRESSURE OVER NRN MN BEGINS TO CROSS THE AREA WITH
RAIN DEVEVLOPING AND INCREASING NRLY UPSLOPE FLOW.
AT KSAW AND KCMX...WITH WEAK WINDS OVERNIGHT AND LACK OF DRY AIR
ADVECTION...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL PERSIST WITH LIFR/VLIFR
CONDITIONS NEAR AIRPORT MINS AT TIMES. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH TODAY WILL SWITCH WINDS TO NORTHERLY BY MID-LATE MORNING
WHICH WILL RESULT IN CONTINUATION OF LOW CLOUDS...AT LEAST AS LOW AS
IFR. VSBY MAY IMPROVE FOR A TIME THOUGH...BEFORE STEADIER RAIN AND
GUSTY WINDS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT
KSAW UNDER FAVORABLY NRLY FLOW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014
AS A LO PRES DEEPENS NEAR JAMES BAY TODAY...EXPECT NNW GALES TO
35-40 KTS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO SAT MORNING
OVER ALL BUT FAR WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. CONTINUED GALE WARNINGS
ISSUED YESTERDAY. ISSUED GALE WARNINGS FOR THE LAKE MICHIGAN
NEARSHORE WATERS AND THE NORTHERN BAY OF GREEN BAY AS AXIS OF
HIGHEST WINDS WILL EXTEND INTO THAT AREA BY THIS EVENING BEFORE THE
FREQUENT GALE FORCE GUSTS DIMINISH ON SAT MORNING. AS A HI PRES
RIDGE APPROACHES FROM THE W ON SAT...THE STRONG WINDS WILL DIMINISH
W-E. ALTHOUGH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE/SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK...NO STRONG WINDS ARE
EXPECTED.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 11 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LSZ266-
267.
GALE WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LSZ244-245-
248-249-264-265.
GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
LSZ250-251.
GALE WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LSZ242-243-246-247-263.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
LMZ221-248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1124 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2014
TEMPERATURES WILL PROVIDE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES INTO THE MID
PART OF NEXT WEEK. THERE IS SOME CHANCE OF PCPN BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY.
AN IMPRESSIVE 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS NOTED OVER THE DAKOTAS
WITH 12 HR HEIGHT FALLS OF ABOUT 150 METERS OVER WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA THIS MORNING. LATEST RUC INITIALIZATION IN COMBINATION WITH
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED THE CENTER OF THE CIRCULATION WAS OVER
NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME LIGHTNING STRIKES
WERE NOTED JUST AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE.
850 MB CHART FROM 12Z THIS MORNING SHOWED A THERMAL RIDGE FROM WEST
TEXAS UP INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. THIS HAS ALREADY BEEN SHIFTING
SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA AS OF MID AFTERNOON. FAIRLY DEEP
MIXING ALONG/BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA HELPED
PUSH TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE 70S...BUT COOLING WAS ALREADY TAKING
PLACE IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. MODEST LOW LEVEL GRADIENT TONIGHT MAY
HELP KEEP WINDS UP...SO RAISED THEM A BIT COMPARED TO LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE. THE AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS CURRENTLY OFF TO OUR
NORTH MAY MOVE INTO OUR NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES LATER
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING (MOSTLY NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM ALBION
TO FREMONT AND RED OAK).
OTHERWISE...WE LOOK FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES (COMPARED TO TODAY) FOR
BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS BUILDS INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT SO KEPT LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER AND MID 30S (AT OR
BELOW MOS GUIDANCE). SURFACE WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
AND INCREASE LATER SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING...THEN ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA SHIFTING WINDS TO THE
NORTH OR NORTHWEST. GOOD MIXING WITH THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH HIGHS
INTO THE 60S MOST AREAS WITH SOME HIGHS AROUND 70 WESTERN ZONES.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2014
THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY AT THE BEGINNING BUT MAY TURN
WET BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY.
LATEST MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE
PATTERN AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...WITH A 500 MB RIDGE FROM
WYOMING UP INTO ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN. A CLOSED LOW WILL BE
NEAR THE ARIZONA/CALIFORNIA/MEXICO BORDER REGION AND A TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM ALASKA DOWN TO NEAR 30 N 135 W. SOME
ENERGY WILL MOVE EAST OUT OF THAT TROUGH IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC
AND BE OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION BY WEDNESDAY. THIS
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL PROVIDE OUT NEXT GOOD CHANCE FOR PCPN. ALTHOUGH
THE MODELS ARE NOT IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT BY THAT TIME (GFS IS WET
FOR OUR AREA WHILE THE ECMWF HOLDS THE PCPN MAINLY TO OUR WEST)...
THE GENERAL PATTERN SUGGESTS LOW CHANCE CATEGORY POPS ARE NEEDED
FOR NOW. HIGHS FROM MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY 60S
TO LOWER 790S WITH LOWS IN THE 40S OR UPPER 30S.
&&
.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2014
A LARGE AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD TAF SITES
BEHIND A REINFORCING FRONT THAT WAS ALSO BRINGING INCREASING NW
WINDS TO THE REGION. ALTHOUGH CIGS INITIALLY COULD BE ABOVE
FL030...THEY SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE MVFR RANGE AND COULD
PERSIST WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT KOMA AND KOFK. IT
APPEARS LINCOLN WILL BE ON SW EDGE OF THE CLOUDS AND THUS ONLY A
TEMPO GROUP WAS CARRIED WITH INITIAL 06Z FORECAST.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...CHERMOK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
309 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014
LATEST SUITE OF SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY
CONDITIONS COVERING JUST ABOUT ALL OF WESTERN/CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SOUTHWEST. NAM BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS AND THE LATEST HRRR CEILING FORECAST KEEP A NEARLY
SATURATED LAYER...ALBEIT SHALLOW...FROM 900MB TO 850MB ACROSS
MAINLY CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY. THE WEST WILL SEE A RETURN TO A
PARTLY CLOUDY SKY BY LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS
MOISTURE IS NOT AS DEEP AND SUBSIDENCE/DRYING OCCURS BEHIND A
DEPARTING SHORTWAVE THIS AFTERNOON. A H85 COLD POCKET OF 0C TO +2C
SLIDES INTO THE EAST CENTRAL ZONES TODAY KEEPING UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS IN PLACE AS STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE 925-H85 LAYER ARE
MAINTAINED FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS SOUTH INTO THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY. THUS WITH THE EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS UPSTREAM PER FOG/STRATUS
IMAGERY LOOP...IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE LATEST TIME HEIGHT RH CROSS
SECTIONS...CLOUDS/BRISK WINDS WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY EVENING
BEFORE CLEARING BEGINS TO TAKE PLACE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S NORTH AND EAST TO LOWER 50S SOUTHWEST.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS TWO SHORTWAVES...THE FIRST WAS
SHORTWAVE WAS CIRCULATING OVER NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA...AND THIS IS
FORECAST TO SLIDE INTO SOUTHEAST MONTANA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LARGE
SCALE ASCENT IS LACKING FOR ANYTHING MUCH MORE THAN CLOUDS THROUGH
THE MORNING IN THE SOUTHWEST...THEN AS MENTIONED ABOVE SOME CLEARING
THIS AFTERNOON ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SHORTWAVE. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL/NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN...AND THIS IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF NORTH DAKOTA TODAY
AS IT MOVES INTO MANITOBA AND MINNESOTA. DECREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS 30 TO 35F.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014
THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE A WARMING TREND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL NOT BE UNTIL THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIMEFRAME
NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE
PLAINS THIS WEEKEND FOR A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. SOUTHERLY WINDS
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE 50S CENTRAL TO THE LOWER 60S WEST.
ON SUNDAY A WEAK FRONT WILL BRING NORTHWEST WINDS AT 10 TO 15
MPH...BUT THE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT IS MILD PACIFIC AIR AND HIGHS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE STATE.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST ACROSS
THE PLAINS. HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER
60S NORTHEAST TO LOWER 70S SOUTHWEST.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES...PUTTING THE DAKOTAS UNDER A SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. THIS WILL BRING SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. CURRENTLY THE MODEL BLEND SOLUTION BRINGS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
INTO THE WEST WEDNESDAY...AND CENTRAL/EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LATEST DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN
WEAKER/DRIER WITH THIS FEATURE...WITH THE MAIN ENERGY ALOFT LIFTING
WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...COULD SEE A DRY
FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURES COOL ONLY SLIGHTLY WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY...BUT IT WILL REMAIN MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014
THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW MVFR
CIGS OVER KMOT/KBIS/KJMS...AND A MIX OF LOW VFR AND MVFR CIGS AT
KISN AND KDIK. MVFR CIGS WILL DOMINATE AT KMOT/KBIS/KJMS THROUGH
03Z SATURDAY...WHILE LOW VFR/MVFR CIGS AT KISN/KDIK WILL IMPROVE
TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS TO 30KT WILL CONTINUE AT
KJMS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
349 AM MDT FRI OCT 17 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM MDT FRI OCT 17 2014
THE VERY NICE FALL WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A WEAK FRONT HAS BACKED ACROSS THE PLAINS AND TEMPS ARE
CHILLY WITH MANY LOCATIONS IN THE LOW-TO-MID 30S. STRATUS IS
CURRENTLY ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
THE HRRR PUSHES THE LOW CLOUDS INTO THE FAR EASTERN ZONES BY
SUNRISE...HOWEVER BELIEVE IT MAY BE A BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE. A DROP
IN TEMPS OF 5-10 DEGREES WILL BE SEE TODAY ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S AS OPPOSED TO THE 70S FROM THE PAST FEW
DAYS. HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE ON SAT WITH WARM ADVECTION. TEMPS WILL
BE BACK UP INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE
BREEZY DURING THE AFTN OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AS PRESSURE
FALLS OCCUR OVER EASTERN MT DURING THE DAY. WEAK SHORTWAVE PUSHES
FROM MT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SAT NIGHT. OTHER THAN DRAGGING
A WEAK COOL FRONT OVER THE PANHANDLE ON SUN MORNING...THIS SYSTEM
WILL HAVE VERY LITTLE EFFECT ON THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES
OVERHEAD ON SUN FOR A CONTINUATION OF THE TRANQUIL WEATHER
CONDITIONS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM MDT FRI OCT 17 2014
DRY AND MILD TO START OFF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES MONDAY WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT INTO THE
PLAINS WITH A TROUGH TO PUSH INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY MID WEEK.
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS INTO THE 70S
ACROSS MOST OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 60S INTO THE WEST. TUESDAY
COULD BE VERY WARM FOR THE LATER PORTIONS OF OCTOBER. MAY SEE RECORD
HIGHS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA ASSUMING HIGH CLOUDS ARE NOT TOO
EXTENSIVE AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE WEDNESDAY BASED ON CURRENT MODEL TIMING.
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE IN THE FORM OF LIQUID...AND THAT MAY
ALSO HOLD TRUE FOR THE MOUNTAINS AS THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH IN THE
WAY OF COLD AIR FROM THIS PACIFIC SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 249 AM MDT FRI OCT 17 2014
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS INTO THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE. CURRENTLY WIDESPREAD IFR TO MVFR DUE TO STRATUS OVER
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THE STRATUS WILL SPILL SOUTH INTO WESTERN
NEBRASKA BY LATE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 249 AM MDT FRI OCT 17 2014
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
5-10 DEGREES COOLER TODAY FOR AREAS TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE. MINIMUM AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE IN THE 20-30
PERCENT RANGE TO THE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. WITH WEAK SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS...WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 15 MPH
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...SML
AVIATION...SML
FIRE WEATHER...FINCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
830 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014
UPDATE...
12Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A BENIGN
WEATHER PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND
FLORIDA PENINSULA. SHORTWAVE ENERGY HAS RAPIDLY PIVOTED UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD LEAVING THE DEEP SOUTH UNDER A LARGE SCALE ZONAL
FLOW PATTERN. THIS ZONAL FLOW WILL HOLD THROUGH TONIGHT. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL AMPLIFY TO THE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEY...AND THEN OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS ENERGY WILL PUSH ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT DOWN
INTO THE PENINSULA FOR SUNDAY...HOWEVER A VERY DRY ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN WILL KEEP THIS A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH VIRTUALLY NOT
CHANCE OF ANY ASSOCIATED RAIN.
CURRENTLY...WE FIND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO AND IN FIRM CONTROL OF OUR LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT.
THIS NEARBY RIDGE WILL PROVIDE A WEAK GRADIENT AND LIGHT WINDS
THROUGH THE DAY.
JUST GOT THE 17/12Z KTBW SOUNDING PROFILE INTO OUR SYSTEMS AND THE
COLUMN CONTINUES TO DRY OUT AND IS NOW SHOWING A VERY IMPRESSIVE LOW
PW VALUE OF 0.47"...WITH LARGE DEWPOINT DEPRESSION THROUGH THE
EXTENT OF THE COLUMN. IT IS GOING TO BE DIFFICULT TO EVEN SEE A FEW
SHALLOW CU DEVELOP TODAY GIVEN THE CURRENT PROFILE.
VERY LITTLE ELSE TO TALK ABOUT WITH THIS PATTERN. WITH LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF LARGE SCALE FORCING AND THE DRYNESS OF THE COLUMN...THE
FORECAST WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SEASONABLE WITH MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS.
HAVE A GREAT REST OF YOUR FRIDAY AND ENJOY THE PLEASANT WEATHER THIS
WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITION WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
N/NW FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE WATERS. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE E/NE FOR
SUNDAY AND THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE IS
REINFORCED FROM THE NORTH. NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 81 63 83 67 / 0 0 0 0
FMY 83 63 85 64 / 0 0 0 0
GIF 82 61 85 64 / 0 0 0 0
SRQ 81 61 83 63 / 0 0 0 0
BKV 82 49 84 56 / 0 0 0 0
SPG 80 68 83 72 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE/AVIATION...MROCZKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
736 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 536 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW THAT THE STRONG SHORTWAVE
THAT WAS OVER MT 24HRS AGO IS NOW A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW CENTERED
NEAR KDLH WITH ASSOCIATED SFC LOW NEAR KIWD. SO FAR...PCPN
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE HAS MOSTLY BEEN NOTHING MORE THAN SCT.
ONE ARC OF PCPN IS NEARING KIWD AS OF 09Z. MID LEVEL LOW THAT HAS
PLAGUED THE GREAT LAKES IN RECENT DAYS IS SHIFTING N IN RESPONSE TO
THE UPSTREAM WAVE AND IS NOW CENTERED JUST NE OF GEORGIAN BAY. LARGE
AREA OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS BACKING W THRU NRN
ONTARIO TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR. CLOSER TO HOME...IT`S BEEN A QUIET
NIGHT ACROSS UPPER MI UNDER A BLANKET OF LOW CLOUDS OVER ALL BUT THE
FAR W. SOME FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...AND SPOTTY -DZ HAS BEEN NOTED.
AS SYSTEM NEAR KDLH TRACKS SE INTO LWR MI BY EVENING...IT WILL
ENTRAIN SOME OF THE MOISTURE BACKING W ACROSS NRN ONTARIO. THE
DEEPENING MOISTURE PROFILE COMBINED WITH FORCING PROVIDED BY THE
WAVE WILL RESULT IN EXPANSION OF PCPN ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES TODAY.
PCPN WILL BECOME MOST WIDESPREAD ACROSS NRN UPPER MI DUE TO
STRENGTHENING NRLY UPSLOPE FLOW AND EVENTUALLY A WEAK LAKE
ENHANCEMENT COMPONENT AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TO 0C BY 00Z. WITH
DEVELOPMENT OF MORE WIDESPREAD PCPN AND STRENGTHENING NRLY
WINDS...TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO FALL THIS AFTN...SETTLING INTO THE LWR 40S
BY EVENING ACROSS THE N AND W.
TONIGHT...DEEP MOISTURE LINGERS IN THE EVENING...PROVIDING CONTINUED
UPSLOPE FLOW/LAKE ENHANCED PCPN OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. UTILIZING WET
BULB HEIGHTS...MAY SEE A LITTLE SNOW MIX WITH THE RAIN OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN OF THE KEWEENAW AND FROM THE HURON MTNS TOWARD IRON RIVER BY
LATE EVENING AS WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS FALL BLO 1500FT AGL IN THOSE
AREAS. OVERNIGHT...THERE IS EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT ON VERY
PRONOUNCED DRYING FROM THE NW BEGINNING ROUGHLY AROUND 06Z.
INVERSION CRASHES TO AROUND 3KFT. WITH TEMPS IN THE SHALLOW MOIST
LAYER -5 TO -7C AT THE LOWEST...IT`S VERY POSSIBLE PCPN WILL
COMPLETELY SHUTDOWN OR NEARLY SHUTDOWN FROM W TO E OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY SAT MORNING AS SUFFICIENTLY WARM WATER TO REACH THE LAKE
EFFECT THRESHOLD ONLY EXISTS CLOSE TO THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. THUS...IN EFFECT...THERE IS ONLY A SHORT FETCH. THE VERY
NOTABLE DECREASE IN PCPN COVERAGE ON ALL MODEL GUIDANCE CERTAINLY
REFLECTS THIS POSSIBILITY. FOR NOW...GRIDS WILL SHOW LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS IN THE EVENING ACROSS THE N FALLING TO CHC
OVERNIGHT...LOWEST W. IN THE INTERIOR AWAY FROM AREAS FAVORED BY NNW
UPSLOPE...SCT SHRA IN THE EVENING WILL END OVERNIGHT. WITH WET BULB
ZERO HEIGHTS CONTINUING TO FALL...MORE OF THE LINGERING PCPN WILL
MIX WITH OR EVEN CHANGE TO SNOW WHERE MOISTURE STILL EXTENDS TO THE
-10C OR LWR ISOTHERM. GIVEN THE RAPID DECREASE IN PCPN
COVERAGE/INTENSITY DURING THE OVERNIGHT...NOT EXPECTING ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION.
ON A FINAL NOTE...WITH STRONGER WINDS OF 30-40KT CENTERED AROUND
2KFT ARRIVING THIS AFTN COMBINED WITH WEAK CAA...WINDS WILL BECOME
GUSTY THIS AFTN...AT FIRST NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT EVENTUALLY OVER
MUCH OF THE FCST AREA. EXPECT STRONGEST WINDS GUSTING TO 35-40MPH
CLOSER TO LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY E OF THE KEWEENAW FROM
MARQUETTE TO GRAND MARAIS WHERE THE STRONGER CORE OF WINDS IS NOTED
IN MODEL GUIDANCE. WIND GUSTS INLAND AND CLOSER TO LAKE MICHIGAN
WILL BE UP TO AROUND 30MPH. GIVEN THE HIGH WATER LEVELS ON LAKE
SUPERIOR (HIGHEST SINCE THE MID 1990S) AND WAVES BUILDING TO 8-12
FEET LATE IN THE DAY INTO TONIGHT (HIGHEST E OF THE KEWEENAW)...
MINOR BEACH EROSION/FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ON THE
BEACHES FROM AROUND MARQUETTE TO GRAND MARAIS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE LONG TERM WL BE FOCUSED ON DIMINISHING
POPS/WINDS ON SAT AND THEN POPS AGAIN LATE SUN INTO MON IN ADVANCE
OF ANOTHER SHRTWV DIGGING INTO THE GREAT LKS. TEMPS SHOULD BE AOB
NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEK WITH THE COLDEST TEMPS ON SAT NGT UNDER HI
PRES RDG/DRY AIRMASS PASSING OVER THE UPR LKS. SOME WARMER WX WL
RETURN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK UNDER A BLDG UPR RDG.
SAT...ALTHOUGH PLENTY OF LK CLDS AND SOME SCT SHOWERS OF RAIN MIXED
WITH SNOW WL STILL BE ARND IN THE MRNG UNDER LINGERING H85 THERMAL
TROF...RISING HGTS/DNVA/LARGE SCALE QVECTOR DVGC IN ADVANCE OF
APRCHG SHRTWV RDG THAT IS FCST TO SHARPEN AND LOWER INVRN BASE BLO
H9 BY 00Z SUN WL END THIS PCPN AND BRING A RETURN OF SOME SUNSHINE
BY LATE IN THE DAY AS INVRN BASE SINKS BLO THE LCL. EXPECT LINGERING
GUSTY NNW WINDS IN THE MRNG TO ALSO DIMINISH STEADILY WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF HI PRES RDG OVER THE W LATE IN THE DAY.
SAT NGT...WITH RDG AXIS PASSING OVHD AND PWAT FCST AS LO AS 0.25
INCH SUPPORTING THE CLRG OF ANY LO CLDS THAT MIGHT LINGER EARLY OVER
THE E...EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL WELL INTO THE 20S OVER THE INTERIOR
CENTRAL AND E. RETURN SW FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SFC RDG
AXIS AND SOME HI CLDS ARRIVING LATE IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SHRTWV
DIGGING SEWD THRU SCENTRAL CANADA WL TEND TO LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP
DROP OVER THE W.
SUN INTO MON...NEXT SHRTWV DROPPING SEWD AND INTO THE UPR LKS/UPR
MIDWEST BY 12Z MON WL BRING INCRSG CLDS ON SUN AND THE NEXT CHC OF
SHOWERS SUN AFTN INTO MON MRNG. ALTHOUGH MSTR INFLOW INTO THIS
DISTURBANCE WL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED...FAIRLY VIGOROUS DPVA/QVECTOR
CNVGC AND SOME SHARPER ISENTROPIC ASCENT SHOWN BEST ON THE 295K SFC
/H775-725/ WARRANT RAISING POPS INTO THE HI LIKELY RANGE OVER THE
CENTRAL AND E CENTERED ARND 00Z MON WHERE AND WHEN THE DYNAMIC
FORCING WL BE SHARPEST. ALTHOUGH THE SHARPER UPPER FORCING WL EXIT
ON MON MRNG...LINGERING LLVL CYC NE FLOW AND SOME DEEPER MSTR SHOULD
MAINTAIN LOTS OF CLDS AND SOME SCT SHOWERS. ALTHOUGH H85 TEMPS ARE
PROGGED TO FALL TO ARND 0C BY 00Z TUE...ALL THE PCPN SHOULD BE IN
THE FORM OF RA WITH H85 TEMPS IN THE 2-5C RANGE MOST OF THE TIME.
MON NGT INTO TUE...ALTHOUGH HGTS WL BEGIN TO RISE IN THE WAKE OF THE
DIGGING SHRTWV INTO THE SE GREAT LKS...SOME MODELS SHOW SHARPER CYC
NE FLOW LINGERING INTO TUE MRNG. THIS SETUP MAY BE FAVORABLE FOR
MORE LK CLDS/EVEN A FEW SPRINKLES LINGERING A BIT LONGER FOR AREAS
NEAR LK SUP...MAINLY OVER THE NCENTRAL. BUT AS SFC HI PRES BUILDS
SLOWLY SE ON TUE...EXPECT ANY LINGERING CLDS TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE AND
GIVE WAY TO A MOSUNNY AFTN.
WED/THU...EXPECT MOCLR SKIES WITH SFC HI PRES UNDER UPR RDG
EXTENDING FM THE PLAINS INTO THE UPR GREAT LKS. WITH H85 TEMPS UP TO
8 TO 9C...EXPECT ABV NORMAL MAX TEMPS BOTH DAYS. BUT CLEAR SKIES/LGT
WINDS AT NGT WL SUPPORT A LARGE DIURNAL TEMP RANGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 736 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014
INCREASING NORTHERLY UPSLOPE WINDS AND DEVELOPING/EXPANDING PCPN
WILL LEAD TO IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TODAY AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. LIFR
CONDITIONS ARE MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR AT KIWD/KSAW UNDER A MORE
FAVORABLE UPSLOPE WIND. THE STRENGTHENING NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE
STRONGEST AT KSAW THIS AFTN/EVENING WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 30KT. AS
DRIER AIR BEINGS FLOW INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
OVERNIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR AT ALL TERMINALS WITH
PCPN DIMINISHING OR ENDING. IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR FIRST AT KCMX AND
LAST AT KSAW AS MOISTURE THINS OUT THERE LATEST.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014
AS A LO PRES DEEPENS NEAR JAMES BAY TODAY...EXPECT NNW GALES TO
35-40 KTS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO SAT MORNING
OVER ALL BUT FAR WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. CONTINUED GALE WARNINGS
ISSUED YESTERDAY. ISSUED GALE WARNINGS FOR THE LAKE MICHIGAN
NEARSHORE WATERS AND THE NORTHERN BAY OF GREEN BAY AS AXIS OF
HIGHEST WINDS WILL EXTEND INTO THAT AREA BY THIS EVENING BEFORE THE
FREQUENT GALE FORCE GUSTS DIMINISH ON SAT MORNING. AS A HI PRES
RIDGE APPROACHES FROM THE W ON SAT...THE STRONG WINDS WILL DIMINISH
W-E. ALTHOUGH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE/SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK...NO STRONG WINDS ARE
EXPECTED.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 11 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LSZ266-
267.
GALE WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LSZ244-245-
248-249-264-265.
GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
LSZ250-251.
GALE WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LSZ242-243-246-247-263.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
LMZ221-248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON MS
1023 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014
.UPDATE...ONLY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS IN HOURLY AND MAX TEMPERATURES
WERE MADE TO GOING FORECAST FOR TODAY. ALL OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS
ARE ON TRACK.
.DISCUSSION...DRY AIR CONTINUES TO RESIDE OVER THE REGION AND
COUPLED WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXPECT ANOTHER SUNNY DAY ACROSS
THE REGION. WITH SUCH DRY AIR IN PLACE, TEMPERATURES HAVE REBOUNDED
QUICKLY WITH SOLID 4-6F DEGREE JUMPS PER HOUR THIS MORNING. HAVE
BUMPED UP HOURLY TEMPS TO FOLLOW SUIT WITH RESULTANT EQUALING 1-2F
DEGREE INCREASE IN MAX HIGHS FOR SELECT AREAS. NEW GFS LAMP GUIDANCE
LOOKS TO HANDLE THIS WELL WITH FURTHER RAP SUPPORT INDICATING NEAR
21.5C H925 TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON. NO OTHER CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST
FOR TODAY WERE MADE.
UPDATES ARE OUT AND AN UPDATED AVIATION CAN BE FOUND DIRECTLY BELOW.
/ALLEN/
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST TAF SITES THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN KHBG WHERE MVFR VISIBILITIES
WILL DEVELOP IN FOG AFTER 18/06Z AND LINGER UNTIL AROUND 18/14Z./26/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...A CLIPPER-TYPE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRIVE
A DRY COLD FRONT TOWARD OUR REGION BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON TODAY.
IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT PATCHY HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL STREAM
OVERHEAD WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL WINDS HELPING BOOST
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL (INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S).
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT FRONT WILL BEGIN PUSHING INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE WARMER THAN PAST NIGHTS CONSIDERING THE LOW LEVEL
MIXING FACTOR WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING A GREAT DEAL. HIGH
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE WHICH WILL ALSO HELP LIMIT COOLING SOMEWHAT.
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL ENOUGH PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE COULD CONGREGATE
TO BRING SOME PATCHY FOG TO SOUTHERN ZONES BY SATURDAY
MORNING...ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS NOT EXPECTED.
THE COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS THROUGH SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE REGION BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT SOLID COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LAG THE WIND
SHIFT ENOUGH TO REALLY ONLY RESULT IN SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN NORTHERN ZONES. ELSEWHERE SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL
ONLY BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN TODAY...ALTHOUGH NOT HOT BY ANY
STRETCH.
BUT EVERYBODY WILL FEEL THE COOL DOWN ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE SINKS SOUTH AND POST-FRONTAL WINDS SLACK INTO THE EVENING.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP INTO THE 40S IN MOST AREAS BY DAWN
SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH PERHAPS NOT FALLING BELOW THE 50 DEGREE MARK IN
FAR SOUTHERN ZONES. /BB/
LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS AUTUMN SEEMS TO FINALLY BE WANTING TO STAY AT
LEAST FOR A LITTLE WHILE.
FOLLOWING SATURDAYS FROPA...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN OVERHEAD FOR
SUNDAY AND MOSTLY MONDAY...ALLOWING FOR GRADUALLY WARMING
TEMPERATURES BUT REMAINING NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. READINGS WILL SLOWLY GET BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID
80S. THE SFC HIGH WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST LATE MONDAY IN RESPONSE
TO ANOTHER APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND SFC LOW OVER MICHIGAN. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL DIVE SOUTH INTO OUR REGION TUESDAY. WITH
LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...THIS SHOULD MAINLY BE A DRY FRONT
THAT SHOULD BRING OUR TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN INTO THE 70S FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AS WELL
KEEPING CONDITIONS COOL AND DRY. UPPER RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHWEST
UNITED STATES WILL EVENTUALLY TRY TO NOSE INTO OUR REGION AND MODELS
SHOW A DRY PATTERN CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEKEND/LATE OCTOBER. /28/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 84 56 81 48 / 0 2 2 0
MERIDIAN 85 53 81 45 / 0 0 3 0
VICKSBURG 85 54 81 47 / 0 4 1 0
HATTIESBURG 85 57 85 51 / 0 1 4 2
NATCHEZ 83 58 81 51 / 0 1 2 1
GREENVILLE 85 55 75 48 / 0 5 1 0
GREENWOOD 84 53 76 46 / 0 5 1 0
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
ALLEN/26/BB/28
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAS VEGAS NV
900 AM PDT FRI OCT 17 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BRING HIGH CLOUDS AND VERY
ISOLATED SHOWERS TO NORTHWEST ARIZONA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER
WEAK SYSTEM DUE INTO THE AREA MID NEXT WEEK MAY BRING HIGH CLOUDS
AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES BUT OTHERWISE DRY AND MILD WEATHER
WILL PERSIST.
&&
.UPDATE...CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ACROSS MOHAVE COUNTY BACK INTO EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY. RADAR
ALSO DEPICTING LIGHT SHOWERS IN THAT AREA BUT SO FAR NOT SEEING ANY
MEASURABLE RAIN REACHING ANY RAIN GAGES. HIGH CLOUD COVER WAS
INCREASING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING PACIFIC TROUGH. I TWEAKED SKY COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR
LATEST SATELLITE AND MODEL TRENDS...INCREASING SKY COVER TODAY AND
TONIGHT OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALSO INCREASED
POPS A LITTLE TO MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS A BIT FARTHER
NORTH IN MOHAVE COUNTY TODAY...BASED ON LATEST HRRR AND LAST NIGHTS
ECMWF. -HARRISON-
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
210 AM PDT FRI OCT 17 2014
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WHICH HAS BEEN SPINNING OFF THE COAST OF NORTHWEST
MEXICO HAS BEGUN TO EJECT NORTHEAST TOWARDS ARIZONA AND IS STREAMING
A BROAD DECK OF HIGH CLOUD COVER ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...MAINLY
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 15. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY LIFT
NORTHEAST WHILE WEAKENING AND WONT BE MUCH OF A FACTOR FOR OUR
SENSIBLE WEATHER AFTER TODAY. BUT IN THE MEANTIME...WIDESPREAD HIGH
CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLY SOME VIRGA SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS MOHAVE COUNTY.
MEANWHILE AS THAT SYSTEM EXITS...A PACIFIC TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE
WEST COAST, WITH THE ENERGY SPLITTING AS IT DOES SO. THE RESULT WILL
BE A WEAK TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SATURDAY AND
SLOWLY CLOSING OFF AS IT PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS ARIZONA ON SUNDAY.
WHILE DYNAMICS WILL BE POOR...ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL
BE PRESENT FOR SOME VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS PRIMARILY THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF LINCOLN AND MOHAVE COUNTIES OVER THE WEEKEND.
TRENDED POPS SIMILAR TO THAT OF THE SREF BUT NOT QUITE AS
AGGRESSIVE, AS IT PAINTS POPS AS HIGH AS 50 PERCENT ACROSS EASTERN
MOHAVE COUNTY SUNDAY EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO BECOME
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS BUT I KEPT
THUNDER OUT OF THE GRIDS AS ANY LIGHTNING ACTIVITY WILL BE QUITE
ISOLATED.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS PERSISTING OVER THE REGION THROUGH NEXT WEEK. WE WILL SEE
ANOTHER OPEN PACIFIC TROUGH APPROACH THE WEST COAST MONDAY THEN MOVE
INLAND AND SPLIT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH MOST OF THE ENERGY
LIFTING NORTHEAST OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. SOUTH WINDS WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...ESPECIALLY OVER INYO COUNTY AND
NEARBY WEST CENTRAL NEVADA. GUSTS SHOULD GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 35
MPH EXCEPT HIGHER OVER THE RIDGES OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA AND WHITE
MOUNTAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE WEAKER SOUTHERN
BRANCH OF THE TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN
AND MOJAVE DESERT TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH VERY LIMITED
MOISTURE BRUSHING THE SOUTHERN SIERRA AND SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN.
MOISTURE APPEARS TOO SPARSE TO MENTION ANY CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
IN OUR FORECAST AREA. THE TROUGH THEN MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND IS
REPLACED BY A RIDGE EXPANDING FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST STATES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP
TEMPS RUNNING A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL WITH ONLY SLIGHT LOWER TEMPS
WHEN THE TROUGH PASSES TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SCT-BKN SKIES AOA 25KFT WILL PREVAIL
ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AIRFIELD TODAY. LIGHT EASTERLY
WINDS AOB 9KTS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH GUSTS MAY
OCCASIONALLY EXCEED 9KTS FOR BRIEF PERIODS.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA WITH BKN CLOUD COVER PREVAILING SOUTH OF A KNXP-KIFP-KGCN-KAZC
LINE. SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT AND VIRGA POSSIBLE AS WELL THIS
AFTERNOON.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...OUTLER
LONG TERM...ADAIR
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
915 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 915 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND ONLY CHANGES WERE TO BLEND CURRENT
OBS TO FORECAST. MAIN ISSUE TODAY WILL BE CLOUD COVER AND WHEN
CLEARING WILL OCCUR. WATER VAPOR CONTINUES TO SHOW WEAK SHORTWAVE
ENTERING WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...SUPPORTING ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER
WITH REMAINDER OF STATE OVERCAST PER 11-3.9 IMAGERY AND EARLY
MORNING VIS IMAGERY AND OBS. SOME DISCREPANCY BETWEEN MODELS WITH
REGARD TO TIMING OF CLEARING WITH GFS/MAV MUCH MORE OPTIMISTIC
THAN NAM/HRRR GUIDANCE. WILL CONTINUE THE SLOWER CLEARING THAT IS
ALREADY DEPICTED IN FORECAST GRIDS. NAM/HRRR ARE INDICATING CLOUDS
LINGERING IN CENTRAL/EASTERN ND WELL INTO NIGHT. WILL SEE HOW
TRENDS DEVELOP TODAY BEFORE ADJUSTING SKY TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...WINDS ARE STILL GUSTY CENTRAL/EAST BUT SHOULD
GRADUALLY TAPER DOWN DURING THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. A FEW BREAKS IN THE LOWER MVFR
CEILINGS IN THE WEST IS BEING COVERED BY A BAND OF HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON SKY COVER THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS SO NO UPDATES NEEDED HERE. ONLY CHANGES WERE TO
UPDATE LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014
LATEST SUITE OF SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY
CONDITIONS COVERING JUST ABOUT ALL OF WESTERN/CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SOUTHWEST. NAM BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS AND THE LATEST HRRR CEILING FORECAST KEEP A NEARLY
SATURATED LAYER...ALBEIT SHALLOW...FROM 900MB TO 850MB ACROSS
MAINLY CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY. THE WEST WILL SEE A RETURN TO A
PARTLY CLOUDY SKY BY LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS
MOISTURE IS NOT AS DEEP AND SUBSIDENCE/DRYING OCCURS BEHIND A
DEPARTING SHORTWAVE THIS AFTERNOON. A H85 COLD POCKET OF 0C TO +2C
SLIDES INTO THE EAST CENTRAL ZONES TODAY KEEPING UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS IN PLACE AS STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE 925-H85 LAYER ARE
MAINTAINED FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS SOUTH INTO THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY. THUS WITH THE EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS UPSTREAM PER FOG/STRATUS
IMAGERY LOOP...IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE LATEST TIME HEIGHT RH CROSS
SECTIONS...CLOUDS/BRISK WINDS WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY EVENING
BEFORE CLEARING BEGINS TO TAKE PLACE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S NORTH AND EAST TO LOWER 50S SOUTHWEST.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS TWO SHORTWAVES...THE FIRST WAS
SHORTWAVE WAS CIRCULATING OVER NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA...AND THIS IS
FORECAST TO SLIDE INTO SOUTHEAST MONTANA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LARGE
SCALE ASCENT IS LACKING FOR ANYTHING MUCH MORE THAN CLOUDS THROUGH
THE MORNING IN THE SOUTHWEST...THEN AS MENTIONED ABOVE SOME CLEARING
THIS AFTERNOON ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SHORTWAVE. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL/NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN...AND THIS IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF NORTH DAKOTA TODAY
AS IT MOVES INTO MANITOBA AND MINNESOTA. DECREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS 30 TO 35F.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014
THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE A WARMING TREND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL NOT BE UNTIL THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIMEFRAME
NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE
PLAINS THIS WEEKEND FOR A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. SOUTHERLY WINDS
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE 50S CENTRAL TO THE LOWER 60S WEST.
ON SUNDAY A WEAK FRONT WILL BRING NORTHWEST WINDS AT 10 TO 15
MPH...BUT THE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT IS MILD PACIFIC AIR AND HIGHS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE STATE.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST ACROSS
THE PLAINS. HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER
60S NORTHEAST TO LOWER 70S SOUTHWEST.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES...PUTTING THE DAKOTAS UNDER A SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. THIS WILL BRING SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. CURRENTLY THE MODEL BLEND SOLUTION BRINGS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
INTO THE WEST WEDNESDAY...AND CENTRAL/EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LATEST DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN
WEAKER/DRIER WITH THIS FEATURE...WITH THE MAIN ENERGY ALOFT LIFTING
WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...COULD SEE A DRY
FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURES COOL ONLY SLIGHTLY WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY...BUT IT WILL REMAIN MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A LARGE SWATH
OF MVFR CIGS OVER THE AERODROMES...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. EXPECTING KMOT/KBIS/KJMS TO REMAIN IN MVFR STATUS THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. KISN WILL BEGIN TO SEE IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR BY 17Z
FRIDAY...AND KDIK BY 19Z FRIDAY. GUSTY NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TO 30KT
WILL CONTINUE AT KJMS THROUGH 21Z FRIDAY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JNS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
639 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. A FEW BREAKS IN THE LOWER MVFR
CEILINGS IN THE WEST IS BEING COVERED BY A BAND OF HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON SKY COVER THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS SO NO UPDATES NEEDED HERE. ONLY CHANGES WERE TO
UPDATE LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014
LATEST SUITE OF SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY
CONDITIONS COVERING JUST ABOUT ALL OF WESTERN/CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SOUTHWEST. NAM BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS AND THE LATEST HRRR CEILING FORECAST KEEP A NEARLY
SATURATED LAYER...ALBEIT SHALLOW...FROM 900MB TO 850MB ACROSS
MAINLY CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY. THE WEST WILL SEE A RETURN TO A
PARTLY CLOUDY SKY BY LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS
MOISTURE IS NOT AS DEEP AND SUBSIDENCE/DRYING OCCURS BEHIND A
DEPARTING SHORTWAVE THIS AFTERNOON. A H85 COLD POCKET OF 0C TO +2C
SLIDES INTO THE EAST CENTRAL ZONES TODAY KEEPING UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS IN PLACE AS STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE 925-H85 LAYER ARE
MAINTAINED FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS SOUTH INTO THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY. THUS WITH THE EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS UPSTREAM PER FOG/STRATUS
IMAGERY LOOP...IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE LATEST TIME HEIGHT RH CROSS
SECTIONS...CLOUDS/BRISK WINDS WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY EVENING
BEFORE CLEARING BEGINS TO TAKE PLACE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S NORTH AND EAST TO LOWER 50S SOUTHWEST.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS TWO SHORTWAVES...THE FIRST WAS
SHORTWAVE WAS CIRCULATING OVER NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA...AND THIS IS
FORECAST TO SLIDE INTO SOUTHEAST MONTANA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LARGE
SCALE ASCENT IS LACKING FOR ANYTHING MUCH MORE THAN CLOUDS THROUGH
THE MORNING IN THE SOUTHWEST...THEN AS MENTIONED ABOVE SOME CLEARING
THIS AFTERNOON ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SHORTWAVE. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL/NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN...AND THIS IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF NORTH DAKOTA TODAY
AS IT MOVES INTO MANITOBA AND MINNESOTA. DECREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS 30 TO 35F.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014
THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE A WARMING TREND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL NOT BE UNTIL THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIMEFRAME
NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE
PLAINS THIS WEEKEND FOR A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. SOUTHERLY WINDS
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE 50S CENTRAL TO THE LOWER 60S WEST.
ON SUNDAY A WEAK FRONT WILL BRING NORTHWEST WINDS AT 10 TO 15
MPH...BUT THE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT IS MILD PACIFIC AIR AND HIGHS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE STATE.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST ACROSS
THE PLAINS. HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER
60S NORTHEAST TO LOWER 70S SOUTHWEST.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES...PUTTING THE DAKOTAS UNDER A SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. THIS WILL BRING SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. CURRENTLY THE MODEL BLEND SOLUTION BRINGS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
INTO THE WEST WEDNESDAY...AND CENTRAL/EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LATEST DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN
WEAKER/DRIER WITH THIS FEATURE...WITH THE MAIN ENERGY ALOFT LIFTING
WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...COULD SEE A DRY
FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURES COOL ONLY SLIGHTLY WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY...BUT IT WILL REMAIN MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A LARGE SWATH
OF MVFR CIGS OVER THE AERODROMES...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. EXPECTING KMOT/KBIS/KJMS TO REMAIN IN MVFR STATUS THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. KISN WILL BEGIN TO SEE IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR BY 17Z
FRIDAY...AND KDIK BY 19Z FRIDAY. GUSTY NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TO 30KT
WILL CONTINUE AT KJMS THROUGH 21Z FRIDAY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
556 AM MDT FRI OCT 17 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM MDT FRI OCT 17 2014
THE VERY NICE FALL WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A WEAK FRONT HAS BACKED ACROSS THE PLAINS AND TEMPS ARE
CHILLY WITH MANY LOCATIONS IN THE LOW-TO-MID 30S. STRATUS IS
CURRENTLY ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
THE HRRR PUSHES THE LOW CLOUDS INTO THE FAR EASTERN ZONES BY
SUNRISE...HOWEVER BELIEVE IT MAY BE A BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE. A DROP
IN TEMPS OF 5-10 DEGREES WILL BE SEE TODAY ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S AS OPPOSED TO THE 70S FROM THE PAST FEW
DAYS. HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE ON SAT WITH WARM ADVECTION. TEMPS WILL
BE BACK UP INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE
BREEZY DURING THE AFTN OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AS PRESSURE
FALLS OCCUR OVER EASTERN MT DURING THE DAY. WEAK SHORTWAVE PUSHES
FROM MT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SAT NIGHT. OTHER THAN DRAGGING
A WEAK COOL FRONT OVER THE PANHANDLE ON SUN MORNING...THIS SYSTEM
WILL HAVE VERY LITTLE EFFECT ON THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES
OVERHEAD ON SUN FOR A CONTINUATION OF THE TRANQUIL WEATHER
CONDITIONS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM MDT FRI OCT 17 2014
DRY AND MILD TO START OFF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES MONDAY WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT INTO THE
PLAINS WITH A TROUGH TO PUSH INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY MID WEEK.
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS INTO THE 70S
ACROSS MOST OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 60S INTO THE WEST. TUESDAY
COULD BE VERY WARM FOR THE LATER PORTIONS OF OCTOBER. MAY SEE RECORD
HIGHS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA ASSUMING HIGH CLOUDS ARE NOT TOO
EXTENSIVE AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE WEDNESDAY BASED ON CURRENT MODEL TIMING.
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE IN THE FORM OF LIQUID...AND THAT MAY
ALSO HOLD TRUE FOR THE MOUNTAINS AS THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH IN THE
WAY OF COLD AIR FROM THIS PACIFIC SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 534 AM MDT FRI OCT 17 2014
A POCKET OF LOW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP BRIEFLY THIS MORNING OVER THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE BUT AS OF 12Z A MAJORITY OF THE CLOUD COVER HAS
BEEN OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA. SO OTHER THAN
SOME MORNING LOW CLOUDS...VFR WILL BE FOUND THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 249 AM MDT FRI OCT 17 2014
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
5-10 DEGREES COOLER TODAY FOR AREAS TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE. MINIMUM AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE IN THE 20-30
PERCENT RANGE TO THE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. WITH WEAK SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS...WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 15 MPH
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...SML
AVIATION...SML
FIRE WEATHER...FINCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
431 PM MDT FRI OCT 17 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 124 PM MDT FRI OCT 17 2014
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW NW FLOW ACROSS
THE PLAINS WITH A RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST US. A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH IS MOVING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH HIGH CLOUD
COVER STREAMING NORTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS OUR CWA.
A RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH WEST-
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER OUR CWA AND ANY WEAK LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH REMAINING WELL SOUTH OF THE CWA. THIS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BRING INCREASING HIGH CLOUD COVER AND
INCREASING WINDS. AS THE FLOW SHIFTS TO MORE OF A WESTERLY
DIRECTION ACROSS THE ROCKIES A LEE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DEEPEN
WHICH WILL RESULT IN A TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
OUR CWA AND BREEZY WINDS DURING THE DAY. WE WILL ALSO START TO SE
A SLIGHT MODERATION IN THE AIR MASS OVER THE WESTERN CWA...WHICH
MAY ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPS SATURDAY TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 70S IN
THE WEST...THOUGH MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN SEASONAL WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID-UPPER 60S.
MODELS ARE ADVERTISING TD RECOVERY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AND ELEVATED
INVERSION LIMITING MIXING SO WE SHOULD SEE RH VALUES REMAIN WELL
ABOVE RED FLAG CRITERIA. SO DESPITE WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH RED
FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 PM MDT FRI OCT 17 2014
A LARGE RIDGE WILL BE AMPLIFYING ALOFT OVER THE ROCKIES AND HIGH
PLAINS REGION ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
ALSO IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION DURING THIS
TIME. A SURFACE LEE TROUGH WILL BE DEEPENING OVER THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE
UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS AND A TROUGH OF LOWER
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE SURFACE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WHILE DAYTIME
HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ON
THURSDAY FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT WHEN DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE
COOLER...BUT STILL NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.
MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE ECMWF
DEEPENING A CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY FRIDAY INSTEAD
OF MOVING IT EAST AS AN OPEN TROUGH AS THE GFS DOES. EITHER
WAY...IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE AT LEAST WEAK UPPER RIDGING OVER
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT
WEEKEND FOR MORE DRY CONDITIONS AND WARM TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 430 PM MDT FRI OCT 17 2014
KGLD AND KMCK...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. GENERALLY MID AND UPPER
CLOUDS EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS.
SURFACE HIGH CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS
FORECAST TO SLIDE EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENING ALONG THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE. THIS WILL
INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA WITH
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS GUSTING FROM 15Z-23Z AT KGLD...PEAKING
AROUND 25KTS IN THE 18Z-22Z TIMEFRAME. OTHERWISE LGT/VRB WINDS AT
TAF ISSUANCE EXPECTED TO VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 09Z AND
CONTINUING THROUGH 14Z.
FOR KMCK LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND AT TAF ISSUANCE EXPECTED TO BECOME
LIGHT FROM THE EAST AROUND 11Z THEN SOUTHEAST NEAR 10KTS BY 16Z.
SOME GUSTINESS TO 20KTS EXPECTED AROUND 21Z-22Z.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
301 PM MDT FRI OCT 17 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 124 PM MDT FRI OCT 17 2014
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW NW FLOW ACROSS
THE PLAINS WITH A RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST US. A SHORT WAVE
TROUGHIS MOVING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH HIGH CLOUD
COVER STREAMING NORTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS OUR CWA.
A RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH WEST-
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER OUR CWA AND ANY WEAK LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH REMAINING WELL SOUTH OF THE CWA. THIS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BRING INCREASING HIGH CLOUD COVER AND
INCREASING WINDS. AS THE FLOW SHIFTS TO MORE OF A WESTERLY
DIRECTION ACROSS THE ROCKIES A LEE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DEEPEN
WHICH WILL RESULT IN A TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
OUR CWA AND BREEZY WINDS DURING THE DAY. WE WILL ALSO START TO SE
A SLIGHT MODERATION IN THE AIR MASS OVER THE WESTERN CWA...WHICH
MAY ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPS SATURDAY TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 70S IN
THE WEST...THOUGH MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN SEASONAL WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID-UPPER 60S.
MODELS ARE ADVERTISING TD RECOVERY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AND ELEVATED
INVERSION LIMITING MIXING SO WE SHOULD SEE RH VALUES REMAIN WELL
ABOVE RED FLAG CRITERIA. SO DESPITE WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH RED
FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 PM MDT FRI OCT 17 2014
A LARGE RIDGE WILL BE AMPLIFYING ALOFT OVER THE ROCKIES AND HIGH
PLAINS REGION ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
ALSO IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION DURING THIS
TIME. A SURFACE LEE TROUGH WILL BE DEEPENING OVER THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE
UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS AND A TROUGH OF LOWER
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE SURFACE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WHILE DAYTIME
HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ON
THURSDAY FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT WHEN DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE
COOLER...BUT STILL NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.
MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE ECMWF
DEEPENING A CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY FRIDAY INSTEAD
OF MOVING IT EAST AS AN OPEN TROUGH AS THE GFS DOES. EITHER
WAY...IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE AT LEAST WEAK UPPER RIDGING OVER
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT
WEEKEND FOR MORE DRY CONDITIONS AND WARM TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1132 AM MDT FRI OCT 17 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH KGLD
AND KMCK. LIGHT WINDS 5-10KT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE
TAF PERIOD AT BOTH TERMINALS AS WEAK SURFACE GRADIENT LINGERS OVER
SW NEBRASKA AND NW KANSAS. LEE TROUGH OVER EASTERN COLORADO WILL
DEEPEN SATURDAY MORNING...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AND
INCREASING. GUSTY WINDS AROUND 20KT WILL DEVELOP AT KGLD AROUND
15KT. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 12KT AT KMCK.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
124 PM MDT FRI OCT 17 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 124 PM MDT FRI OCT 17 2014
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW NW FLOW ACROSS
THE PLAINS WITH A RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST US. A SHORTWAVETROUGH
IS MOVING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH HIGH CLOUD COVER
STREAMING NORTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS.
AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS OUR CWA.
A RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH WEST-
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER OUR CWA AND ANY WEAK LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH REMAINING WELL SOUTH OF THE CWA. THIS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BRING INCREASING HIGH CLOUD COVER AND
INCREASING WINDS. AS THE FLOW SHIFTS TO MORE OF A WESTERLY
DIRECTION ACROSS THE ROCKIES A LEE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DEEPEN
WHICH WILL RESULT IN A TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
OUR CWA AND BREEZY WINDS DURING THE DAY. WE WILL ALSO START TO SE
A SLIGHT MODERATION IN THE AIR MASS OVER THE WESTERN CWA...WHICH
MAY ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPS SATURDAY TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 70S IN
THE WEST...THOUGH MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN SEASONAL WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID-UPPER 60S.
MODELS ARE ADVERTISING TD RECOVERY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AND ELEVATED
INVERSION LIMITING MIXING SO WE SHOULD SEE RH VALUES REMAIN WELL
ABOVE RED FLAG CRITERIA. SO DESPITE WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH RED
FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 AM MDT FRI OCT 17 2014
A LARGE AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS
ON MONDAY...BRINGING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS TO THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE
LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AS WELL...FALLING TO THE
MID TO UPPER 40S.
THE NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE MID WEEK AS AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
SLIDE THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS. MODEL GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE COMING
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH POSITION OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO
DISSIPATE THURSDAY AFTER THE SURFACE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THERE
IS SOME SLIGHT INSTABILITY ALOFT WITH CAPE VALUES AROUND OR LESS
THAN 300 J/KG...SO THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED CHANCE FOR SOME
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OTHERWISE...THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE RAIN SHOWERS AS
MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FILTERS INTO
THE HIGH PLAINS REGION TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1132 AM MDT FRI OCT 17 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH KGLD
AND KMCK. LIGHT WINDS 5-10KT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE
TAF PERIOD AT BOTH TERMINALS AS WEAK SURFACE GRADIENT LINGERS OVER
SW NEBRASKA AND NW KANSAS. LEE TROUGH OVER EASTERN COLORADO WILL
DEEPEN SATURDAY MORNING...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AND
INCREASING. GUSTY WINDS AROUND 20KT WILL DEVELOP AT KGLD AROUND
15KT. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 12KT AT KMCK.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
456 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH ON SATURDAY AND CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE WEST EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
435 PM UPDATE...LIGHTNING STRIKES SHOWING UP PER THE LATEST
LIGHTNING DETECTION. ALSO SEEING SOME ENHANCED ECHO TOPS ALONG
W/THE THREAT FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS. FREEZING LEVELS DROPPED TO 10K
FT. DECIDED TO ADD GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON W/ANY TSTMS. SHOWERS AND ANY REMAINING CONVECTION
SHOULD BE EAST OF THE CWA BY 8 PM PER THE LATEST HRRR 3KM MODEL
AND NAM12.
SEE AVIATION SECTION.
WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED PATCHY
FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
40S TO NEAR 50 AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S DOWNEAST.
A RATHER POTENT SHORT WAVE TROF IS FORECASTED TO CROSS THE REGION
LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING SHOWERS TO MUCH OF THE
REGION DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT ONE LAST UNSEASONABLY
MILD DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MILD WEATHER IS COMING TO AN END LATE THIS WEEKEND AND SOME
MUCH CHILLIER AIR IS COMING IN. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY EVENING WITH SOME SHOWERS LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTH,
ESPECIALLY UP IN THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY. COOLER AIR WILL THEN BEGIN
SPREADING IN FROM THE NORTH FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
ON SUNDAY WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. A WET SNOW
SHOWER IS EVEN POSSIBLE IN WESTERN ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1200 FT. GUSTY
WEST WINDS WILL THEN BRING BLUSTERY AND CHILLY CONDITIONS SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT DIPPING BELOW FREEZING
IN MANY SPOTS AND HIGHS MONDAY ONLY IN THE 40S NORTH AND NEAR 50
DOWNEAST. OTHERWISE, STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WILL KEEP NORTHERN AREAS
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH THE DOWNEAST REGION EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY
SUNNY ON SUNDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THERE WILL BE A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE ACROSS THE STATE. A LOW EXITING THE AREA TO THE EAST OVER
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...AND A NEW LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. BY TUESDAY EVENING THE LOW OVER THE
GREAT LAKE WILL MOVE TO THE COAST OF VIRGINIA...THE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST. WED MRNG THE LOW BEGINS TO MOVE
NORTH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE GFS HAS IT ALONG THE COAST
OF NJ...ECMWF ALONG THE COAST OF DELMARVA WITH A SECONDARY LOW SE
OF CAPE COD...THE GEM OFF THE ERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND. THE
DIFFERENCES IN THE LOW POSITIONS REFLECT THE DIFFERENCES IN THE
DEPICTION OF THE EXTEND TO THE PRECIP BANDS. THE GFS BRINGS PCPN
INTO THE PORTLAND AREA...THE ECMWF AND GEM INTO THE BAR HARBOR
AREA. BY WED EVNG THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AGAIN
WITH PCPN SPREAD ACROSS ALL BUT THE CROWN OF MAINE. ALL THREE SHOW
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST WITH MINOR
DIFFERENCES IN THE POSITION OF THE LOW...AS WELL AS A SUPPORTING
CLOSE LOW AT 500 MB. ALL ARE SHOWING A SFC LOW THAT IS BEGINNING TO
GO COLD CORE. THE TREND CONTINUES INTO FRI...COLD CORE LOW ALONG
THE EAST COAST WITH THE OCCLUDED FRONT WRAPPED AROUND THE
LOW...ACROSS MAINE. BY FRI EVNG THE LOW BEGINS TO MOVE NE TOWARDS
THE BAY OF FUNDY. AT THE END OF THE PERIOD THE COLD CORE LOW WILL
BE OVER ERN NOVA SCOTIA.
LOADED THE SUPERBLEND...NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS.
ADDED 15 PERCENT TO THE WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT
OVER WATER.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: UPDATE...ISSUED AN AVIATION WEATHER WARNING FOR BGR(BIA).
SOME CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE DETECTED IN THE
VICINITY OF THE AIRPORT AND ANOTHER CELL IS MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST, BUT WEAKENING PER THE LAST RADAR SCAN. THOUGHT IT WOULD BE
FOR SAFETY TO CARRY THE WARNING THROUGH 5 PM.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT. SOME PATCHY FOG
MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WHICH COULD RESULT IN LCL BRIEF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IFR ACROSS THE
NORTH AND MVFR TO VFR DOWNEAST. VFR CONDITIONS DOWNEAST AND MVFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT. MVFR TO
IFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. A
RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED DOWNEAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH. WEST WINDS WILL
LIKELY BE GUSTY ON MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY.
LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO AFFECT THE
WATERS LATER SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED SATURDAY EVENING. AN SCA WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS GUSTY COLD WEST
WINDS MOVE IN.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...DUDA/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...DUDA/HEWITT/BLOOMER
MARINE...DUDA/HEWITT/BLOOMER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
350 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014
...A COOL WET AND WINDY EVENING WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT LATER
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...
WV LOOP AND IR SATELLITE AND NWS REGIONAL RADAR AND CANADIAN RADAR
LOOPS SHOWING AN EXPANDED AREA OF RAIN SWEEPING NORTH TO SOUTH OVER
UPPER GREAT LAKES. BASED ON SFC OBS...APPEARS BACK EDGE OF RAIN IS
OVR CENTRAL LK SUPERIOR ENE INTO ADJACENT AREAS OF ONTARIO. PRIMARY
SFC LOW IS NOW JUST SOUTH OF JAMES BAY AT AROUND 990MB. NORTH WINDS
OVER THE REGION ARE GUSTING OVER 30 MPH OVER MUCH OF LK SUPERIOR AND
OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN UPR MICHIGAN...WITH 20-30 MPH GUSTS FARTHER
INLAND AND TOWARD LK MICHIGAN. BASED ON UPSTREAM TRENDS...SHORT
TERM MODEL FORECASTS FM NAM/GEM-REGIONAL SEEM IN GOOD SHAPE..AND
HAVE LEANED ON THOSE ALONG WITH THE HRRR FOR DETAILS IN THE NEXT
12-15 HRS. EXPECT A PERIOD OF RAIN AND STRONG WINDS THROUGH AT LEAST
THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE PRECIP DIMINISHES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS
MOISTURE ABOVE H9 DIMINISHES SHARPLY. EVEN WITH THE DECREASE IN
MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE...ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
INTO MUCH OF SATURDAY ALONG WITH A NNW LOW-LEVEL FLOW BTWN DEPARTING
LOW AND APPROACHING SFC HIGH. LAKE ENHANCED PRECIP THIS EVENING
/DELTA T/S AROUND 8C GIVEN SUFFICIENT LARGE SCALE MOISTURE AND LIFT/
SHOULD TRANSITION TO PURE LAKE EFFECT SINCE THERE IS JUST ENOUGH
OVER-WATER INSTABILITY PRESENT AS TEMPS AT INVERSION TOP 900-875MB
FALL TO -5C AFTER 09Z WHILE WATER TEMPS ON AVERAGE ARE AROUND +8C
/PROVIDING DELTA T/S OF 13C/.
BASED ON SOUNDINGS...ANY SNOW POTENTIAL IS BASED ON EXTENT OF
WARMING IN LOWEST PARTS OF THE BLYR. THUS CONTINUED TO USE WBZERO
HEIGHTS TO DETERMINE THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW. APPEARS THAT HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS OF WEST AND CNTRL CWA SEE THE BEST CHANCES FOR SOME
SNOW...BUT WITHOUT DEEPER MOISTURE/LIFTING OCCURRING...SEEMS THAT
TEMPS IN MOIST LAYER MAY NOT BE AS LOW AS -8C OR -10C...SUGGESTING
THERE MAY NOT BE ICE CRYSTALS INTRODUCED FM ALOFT TO LEAD TO BETTER
CHANCES OF SNOW. A WEAK WAVE ALOFT CURRENTLY DROPPING SE OVER CNTRL
MANITOBA MAY PUSH ACROSS WEST CWA LATER TONIGHT RESULTING IN A BIT OF
ADDITIONAL H7-H5 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND LIFT TO HELP OUT THE CAUSE.
EVEN IMPACT FM THAT APPEARS MINIMAL ATTM. OVERALL...CHANCES OF
MEASURABLE SNOW APPEAR MINIMAL WITH THIS SYSTEM.
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH INVERSION AT
H85-H8 ON SATURDAY. KEPT IN SMALL POPS FOR LAKE EFFECT AS SETUP IS
NOT ALL THAT DIFFERENT FM LATE TONIGHT. GRADUALLY...AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA...EXPECT BLYR TO DRY OUT BLO CLOUD BASE
ENOUGH TO RESULT IN ANY LGT PRECIP COMING TO AN END. TEMPS WILL BE
CHILLY AS LOW-LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH IS OVERHEAD. EXPECT MAX TEMPS
MAINLY IN THE 30S...EXCEPT SOME LOW 40S OVER SCNTRL CWA. ADDED TO
THE CHILL WILL BE CONTINUING GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS...
STRONGEST NEAR LK SUPERIOR OVER THE EAST CWA IN THE MORNING.
LIKELY THE BIGGEST POTENTIAL IMPACT FM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WINDS AND
WAVE ACTION ALONG LK SUPERIOR. GIVEN THE HIGH WATER LEVELS ON LAKE
SUPERIOR WHICH ARE THE HIGHEST SINCE THE MID 1990S AND WAVES
BUILDING TO 8-12 FEET INTO THIS EVENING AND THROUGH TONIGHT (HIGHEST
E OF THE KEWEENAW)...MINOR BEACH EROSION AND LOCALIZED FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ON THE BEACHES FROM AROUND MARQUETTE TO GRAND
MARAIS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MENTIONED IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK AND THE GRAPHICAL EHWO.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014
NAM SHOWS A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. 00Z SUN. THERE IS A
SHORTWAVE OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES 00Z SUN THAT AFFECTS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES LATE ON SUN. A 500 MB RIDGE THEN BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS
ON MON. NAM SHOWS SOME DEEPER MOISTURE AND 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE MOVING INTO THE AREA LATE SUN AND THEN MOVING OUT ON
MON. NAM SHOWS SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE ON I290K-I305K
SURFACES MOVING INTO THE AREA SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE
MOVING OUT ON MON. WILL KEEP SOME LOW CHANCE POPS SUN MORNING
GRADUALLY SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA SUN AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AND
THEN DRYING OUT LATE MONDAY. DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE
TEMPERATURES OR THE WEATHER AS THE FORECAST HAD THINGS WELL IN HAND.
IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB TROUGH ON THE WEST
COAST 12Z TUE WITH A RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS AND A TROUGH IN THE ERN
U.S. THE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z WED INTO 12Z
THU WITH RIDGING STAYING IN PLACE INTO FRI. THIS FORECAST PERIOD
WILL BE DRY WITH A WARMING TREND WITH TEMPERATURES GOING ABOVE
NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 153 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014
INCREASING NORTHERLY UPSLOPE WINDS AND EXPANDING PCPN WILL LEAD
TO IFR OR LOWER MVFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THE STRENGTHENING NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST
AT KSAW THIS AFTN/EVENING WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 30KT. AS DRIER
AIR BEGINS TO FLOW INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT...
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR AT ALL TERMINALS WITH PCPN
DIMINISHING OR ENDING. IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR FIRST AT KCMX AND LAST
AT KSAW AS MOISTURE THINS OUT THERE LATEST.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014
GALES 35-40 KTS REMAIN ON TRACK OVER LK SUPERIOR THROUGH TONIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS SOUTHEAST OF JAMES BAY. WINDS JUST STARTING TO
INCREASE ON BAY OF GREEN BAY AND LK MICHIGAN AND EXPECT FREQUENT
GALE GUSTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT THERE. AS A HIGH PRES RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY AFTN...STRONG WINDS WILL DIMINISH
WEST TO EAST. ALTHOUGH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE/SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRACK ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK...NO STRONG WINDS ARE
EXPECTED.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LSZ266-267.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LSZ244-245-248-249-264-
265.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LSZ250-251.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ242-243-246-247-
263.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LMZ221-248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
308 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 536 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW THAT THE STRONG SHORTWAVE
THAT WAS OVER MT 24HRS AGO IS NOW A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW CENTERED
NEAR KDLH WITH ASSOCIATED SFC LOW NEAR KIWD. SO FAR...PCPN
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE HAS MOSTLY BEEN NOTHING MORE THAN SCT.
ONE ARC OF PCPN IS NEARING KIWD AS OF 09Z. MID LEVEL LOW THAT HAS
PLAGUED THE GREAT LAKES IN RECENT DAYS IS SHIFTING N IN RESPONSE TO
THE UPSTREAM WAVE AND IS NOW CENTERED JUST NE OF GEORGIAN BAY. LARGE
AREA OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS BACKING W THRU NRN
ONTARIO TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR. CLOSER TO HOME...IT`S BEEN A QUIET
NIGHT ACROSS UPPER MI UNDER A BLANKET OF LOW CLOUDS OVER ALL BUT THE
FAR W. SOME FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...AND SPOTTY -DZ HAS BEEN NOTED.
AS SYSTEM NEAR KDLH TRACKS SE INTO LWR MI BY EVENING...IT WILL
ENTRAIN SOME OF THE MOISTURE BACKING W ACROSS NRN ONTARIO. THE
DEEPENING MOISTURE PROFILE COMBINED WITH FORCING PROVIDED BY THE
WAVE WILL RESULT IN EXPANSION OF PCPN ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES TODAY.
PCPN WILL BECOME MOST WIDESPREAD ACROSS NRN UPPER MI DUE TO
STRENGTHENING NRLY UPSLOPE FLOW AND EVENTUALLY A WEAK LAKE
ENHANCEMENT COMPONENT AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TO 0C BY 00Z. WITH
DEVELOPMENT OF MORE WIDESPREAD PCPN AND STRENGTHENING NRLY
WINDS...TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO FALL THIS AFTN...SETTLING INTO THE LWR 40S
BY EVENING ACROSS THE N AND W.
TONIGHT...DEEP MOISTURE LINGERS IN THE EVENING...PROVIDING CONTINUED
UPSLOPE FLOW/LAKE ENHANCED PCPN OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. UTILIZING WET
BULB HEIGHTS...MAY SEE A LITTLE SNOW MIX WITH THE RAIN OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN OF THE KEWEENAW AND FROM THE HURON MTNS TOWARD IRON RIVER BY
LATE EVENING AS WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS FALL BLO 1500FT AGL IN THOSE
AREAS. OVERNIGHT...THERE IS EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT ON VERY
PRONOUNCED DRYING FROM THE NW BEGINNING ROUGHLY AROUND 06Z.
INVERSION CRASHES TO AROUND 3KFT. WITH TEMPS IN THE SHALLOW MOIST
LAYER -5 TO -7C AT THE LOWEST...IT`S VERY POSSIBLE PCPN WILL
COMPLETELY SHUTDOWN OR NEARLY SHUTDOWN FROM W TO E OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY SAT MORNING AS SUFFICIENTLY WARM WATER TO REACH THE LAKE
EFFECT THRESHOLD ONLY EXISTS CLOSE TO THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. THUS...IN EFFECT...THERE IS ONLY A SHORT FETCH. THE VERY
NOTABLE DECREASE IN PCPN COVERAGE ON ALL MODEL GUIDANCE CERTAINLY
REFLECTS THIS POSSIBILITY. FOR NOW...GRIDS WILL SHOW LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS IN THE EVENING ACROSS THE N FALLING TO CHC
OVERNIGHT...LOWEST W. IN THE INTERIOR AWAY FROM AREAS FAVORED BY NNW
UPSLOPE...SCT SHRA IN THE EVENING WILL END OVERNIGHT. WITH WET BULB
ZERO HEIGHTS CONTINUING TO FALL...MORE OF THE LINGERING PCPN WILL
MIX WITH OR EVEN CHANGE TO SNOW WHERE MOISTURE STILL EXTENDS TO THE
-10C OR LWR ISOTHERM. GIVEN THE RAPID DECREASE IN PCPN
COVERAGE/INTENSITY DURING THE OVERNIGHT...NOT EXPECTING ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION.
ON A FINAL NOTE...WITH STRONGER WINDS OF 30-40KT CENTERED AROUND
2KFT ARRIVING THIS AFTN COMBINED WITH WEAK CAA...WINDS WILL BECOME
GUSTY THIS AFTN...AT FIRST NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT EVENTUALLY OVER
MUCH OF THE FCST AREA. EXPECT STRONGEST WINDS GUSTING TO 35-40MPH
CLOSER TO LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY E OF THE KEWEENAW FROM
MARQUETTE TO GRAND MARAIS WHERE THE STRONGER CORE OF WINDS IS NOTED
IN MODEL GUIDANCE. WIND GUSTS INLAND AND CLOSER TO LAKE MICHIGAN
WILL BE UP TO AROUND 30MPH. GIVEN THE HIGH WATER LEVELS ON LAKE
SUPERIOR (HIGHEST SINCE THE MID 1990S) AND WAVES BUILDING TO 8-12
FEET LATE IN THE DAY INTO TONIGHT (HIGHEST E OF THE KEWEENAW)...
MINOR BEACH EROSION/FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ON THE
BEACHES FROM AROUND MARQUETTE TO GRAND MARAIS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014
NAM SHOWS A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. 00Z SUN. THERE IS A
SHORTWAVE OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES 00Z SUN THAT AFFECTS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES LATE ON SUN. A 500 MB RIDGE THEN BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS
ON MON. NAM SHOWS SOME DEEPER MOISTURE AND 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE MOVING INTO THE AREA LATE SUN AND THEN MOVING OUT ON
MON. NAM SHOWS SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE ON I290K-I305K
SURFACES MOVING INTO THE AREA SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE
MOVING OUT ON MON. WILL KEEP SOME LOW CHANCE POPS SUN MORNING
GRADUALLY SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA SUN AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AND
THEN DRYING OUT LATE MONDAY. DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE
TEMPERATURES OR THE WEATHER AS THE FORECAST HAD THINGS WELL IN HAND.
IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB TROUGH ON THE WEST
COAST 12Z TUE WITH A RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS AND A TROUGH IN THE ERN
U.S. THE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z WED INTO 12Z
THU WITH RIDGING STAYING IN PLACE INTO FRI. THIS FORECAST PERIOD
WILL BE DRY WITH A WARMING TREND WITH TEMPERATURES GOING ABOVE
NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 153 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014
INCREASING NORTHERLY UPSLOPE WINDS AND EXPANDING PCPN WILL LEAD
TO IFR OR LOWER MVFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THE STRENGTHENING NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST
AT KSAW THIS AFTN/EVENING WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 30KT. AS DRIER
AIR BEGINS TO FLOW INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT...
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR AT ALL TERMINALS WITH PCPN
DIMINISHING OR ENDING. IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR FIRST AT KCMX AND LAST
AT KSAW AS MOISTURE THINS OUT THERE LATEST.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014
AS A LO PRES DEEPENS NEAR JAMES BAY TODAY...EXPECT NNW GALES TO
35-40 KTS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO SAT MORNING
OVER ALL BUT FAR WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. CONTINUED GALE WARNINGS
ISSUED YESTERDAY. ISSUED GALE WARNINGS FOR THE LAKE MICHIGAN
NEARSHORE WATERS AND THE NORTHERN BAY OF GREEN BAY AS AXIS OF
HIGHEST WINDS WILL EXTEND INTO THAT AREA BY THIS EVENING BEFORE THE
FREQUENT GALE FORCE GUSTS DIMINISH ON SAT MORNING. AS A HI PRES
RIDGE APPROACHES FROM THE W ON SAT...THE STRONG WINDS WILL DIMINISH
W-E. ALTHOUGH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE/SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK...NO STRONG WINDS ARE
EXPECTED.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LSZ266-267.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LSZ244-245-248-249-264-
265.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LSZ250-251.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ242-243-246-247-
263.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LMZ221-248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
157 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 536 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW THAT THE STRONG SHORTWAVE
THAT WAS OVER MT 24HRS AGO IS NOW A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW CENTERED
NEAR KDLH WITH ASSOCIATED SFC LOW NEAR KIWD. SO FAR...PCPN
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE HAS MOSTLY BEEN NOTHING MORE THAN SCT.
ONE ARC OF PCPN IS NEARING KIWD AS OF 09Z. MID LEVEL LOW THAT HAS
PLAGUED THE GREAT LAKES IN RECENT DAYS IS SHIFTING N IN RESPONSE TO
THE UPSTREAM WAVE AND IS NOW CENTERED JUST NE OF GEORGIAN BAY. LARGE
AREA OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS BACKING W THRU NRN
ONTARIO TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR. CLOSER TO HOME...IT`S BEEN A QUIET
NIGHT ACROSS UPPER MI UNDER A BLANKET OF LOW CLOUDS OVER ALL BUT THE
FAR W. SOME FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...AND SPOTTY -DZ HAS BEEN NOTED.
AS SYSTEM NEAR KDLH TRACKS SE INTO LWR MI BY EVENING...IT WILL
ENTRAIN SOME OF THE MOISTURE BACKING W ACROSS NRN ONTARIO. THE
DEEPENING MOISTURE PROFILE COMBINED WITH FORCING PROVIDED BY THE
WAVE WILL RESULT IN EXPANSION OF PCPN ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES TODAY.
PCPN WILL BECOME MOST WIDESPREAD ACROSS NRN UPPER MI DUE TO
STRENGTHENING NRLY UPSLOPE FLOW AND EVENTUALLY A WEAK LAKE
ENHANCEMENT COMPONENT AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TO 0C BY 00Z. WITH
DEVELOPMENT OF MORE WIDESPREAD PCPN AND STRENGTHENING NRLY
WINDS...TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO FALL THIS AFTN...SETTLING INTO THE LWR 40S
BY EVENING ACROSS THE N AND W.
TONIGHT...DEEP MOISTURE LINGERS IN THE EVENING...PROVIDING CONTINUED
UPSLOPE FLOW/LAKE ENHANCED PCPN OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. UTILIZING WET
BULB HEIGHTS...MAY SEE A LITTLE SNOW MIX WITH THE RAIN OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN OF THE KEWEENAW AND FROM THE HURON MTNS TOWARD IRON RIVER BY
LATE EVENING AS WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS FALL BLO 1500FT AGL IN THOSE
AREAS. OVERNIGHT...THERE IS EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT ON VERY
PRONOUNCED DRYING FROM THE NW BEGINNING ROUGHLY AROUND 06Z.
INVERSION CRASHES TO AROUND 3KFT. WITH TEMPS IN THE SHALLOW MOIST
LAYER -5 TO -7C AT THE LOWEST...IT`S VERY POSSIBLE PCPN WILL
COMPLETELY SHUTDOWN OR NEARLY SHUTDOWN FROM W TO E OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY SAT MORNING AS SUFFICIENTLY WARM WATER TO REACH THE LAKE
EFFECT THRESHOLD ONLY EXISTS CLOSE TO THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. THUS...IN EFFECT...THERE IS ONLY A SHORT FETCH. THE VERY
NOTABLE DECREASE IN PCPN COVERAGE ON ALL MODEL GUIDANCE CERTAINLY
REFLECTS THIS POSSIBILITY. FOR NOW...GRIDS WILL SHOW LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS IN THE EVENING ACROSS THE N FALLING TO CHC
OVERNIGHT...LOWEST W. IN THE INTERIOR AWAY FROM AREAS FAVORED BY NNW
UPSLOPE...SCT SHRA IN THE EVENING WILL END OVERNIGHT. WITH WET BULB
ZERO HEIGHTS CONTINUING TO FALL...MORE OF THE LINGERING PCPN WILL
MIX WITH OR EVEN CHANGE TO SNOW WHERE MOISTURE STILL EXTENDS TO THE
-10C OR LWR ISOTHERM. GIVEN THE RAPID DECREASE IN PCPN
COVERAGE/INTENSITY DURING THE OVERNIGHT...NOT EXPECTING ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION.
ON A FINAL NOTE...WITH STRONGER WINDS OF 30-40KT CENTERED AROUND
2KFT ARRIVING THIS AFTN COMBINED WITH WEAK CAA...WINDS WILL BECOME
GUSTY THIS AFTN...AT FIRST NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT EVENTUALLY OVER
MUCH OF THE FCST AREA. EXPECT STRONGEST WINDS GUSTING TO 35-40MPH
CLOSER TO LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY E OF THE KEWEENAW FROM
MARQUETTE TO GRAND MARAIS WHERE THE STRONGER CORE OF WINDS IS NOTED
IN MODEL GUIDANCE. WIND GUSTS INLAND AND CLOSER TO LAKE MICHIGAN
WILL BE UP TO AROUND 30MPH. GIVEN THE HIGH WATER LEVELS ON LAKE
SUPERIOR (HIGHEST SINCE THE MID 1990S) AND WAVES BUILDING TO 8-12
FEET LATE IN THE DAY INTO TONIGHT (HIGHEST E OF THE KEWEENAW)...
MINOR BEACH EROSION/FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ON THE
BEACHES FROM AROUND MARQUETTE TO GRAND MARAIS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE LONG TERM WL BE FOCUSED ON DIMINISHING
POPS/WINDS ON SAT AND THEN POPS AGAIN LATE SUN INTO MON IN ADVANCE
OF ANOTHER SHRTWV DIGGING INTO THE GREAT LKS. TEMPS SHOULD BE AOB
NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEK WITH THE COLDEST TEMPS ON SAT NGT UNDER HI
PRES RDG/DRY AIRMASS PASSING OVER THE UPR LKS. SOME WARMER WX WL
RETURN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK UNDER A BLDG UPR RDG.
SAT...ALTHOUGH PLENTY OF LK CLDS AND SOME SCT SHOWERS OF RAIN MIXED
WITH SNOW WL STILL BE ARND IN THE MRNG UNDER LINGERING H85 THERMAL
TROF...RISING HGTS/DNVA/LARGE SCALE QVECTOR DVGC IN ADVANCE OF
APRCHG SHRTWV RDG THAT IS FCST TO SHARPEN AND LOWER INVRN BASE BLO
H9 BY 00Z SUN WL END THIS PCPN AND BRING A RETURN OF SOME SUNSHINE
BY LATE IN THE DAY AS INVRN BASE SINKS BLO THE LCL. EXPECT LINGERING
GUSTY NNW WINDS IN THE MRNG TO ALSO DIMINISH STEADILY WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF HI PRES RDG OVER THE W LATE IN THE DAY.
SAT NGT...WITH RDG AXIS PASSING OVHD AND PWAT FCST AS LO AS 0.25
INCH SUPPORTING THE CLRG OF ANY LO CLDS THAT MIGHT LINGER EARLY OVER
THE E...EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL WELL INTO THE 20S OVER THE INTERIOR
CENTRAL AND E. RETURN SW FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SFC RDG
AXIS AND SOME HI CLDS ARRIVING LATE IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SHRTWV
DIGGING SEWD THRU SCENTRAL CANADA WL TEND TO LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP
DROP OVER THE W.
SUN INTO MON...NEXT SHRTWV DROPPING SEWD AND INTO THE UPR LKS/UPR
MIDWEST BY 12Z MON WL BRING INCRSG CLDS ON SUN AND THE NEXT CHC OF
SHOWERS SUN AFTN INTO MON MRNG. ALTHOUGH MSTR INFLOW INTO THIS
DISTURBANCE WL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED...FAIRLY VIGOROUS DPVA/QVECTOR
CNVGC AND SOME SHARPER ISENTROPIC ASCENT SHOWN BEST ON THE 295K SFC
/H775-725/ WARRANT RAISING POPS INTO THE HI LIKELY RANGE OVER THE
CENTRAL AND E CENTERED ARND 00Z MON WHERE AND WHEN THE DYNAMIC
FORCING WL BE SHARPEST. ALTHOUGH THE SHARPER UPPER FORCING WL EXIT
ON MON MRNG...LINGERING LLVL CYC NE FLOW AND SOME DEEPER MSTR SHOULD
MAINTAIN LOTS OF CLDS AND SOME SCT SHOWERS. ALTHOUGH H85 TEMPS ARE
PROGGED TO FALL TO ARND 0C BY 00Z TUE...ALL THE PCPN SHOULD BE IN
THE FORM OF RA WITH H85 TEMPS IN THE 2-5C RANGE MOST OF THE TIME.
MON NGT INTO TUE...ALTHOUGH HGTS WL BEGIN TO RISE IN THE WAKE OF THE
DIGGING SHRTWV INTO THE SE GREAT LKS...SOME MODELS SHOW SHARPER CYC
NE FLOW LINGERING INTO TUE MRNG. THIS SETUP MAY BE FAVORABLE FOR
MORE LK CLDS/EVEN A FEW SPRINKLES LINGERING A BIT LONGER FOR AREAS
NEAR LK SUP...MAINLY OVER THE NCENTRAL. BUT AS SFC HI PRES BUILDS
SLOWLY SE ON TUE...EXPECT ANY LINGERING CLDS TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE AND
GIVE WAY TO A MOSUNNY AFTN.
WED/THU...EXPECT MOCLR SKIES WITH SFC HI PRES UNDER UPR RDG
EXTENDING FM THE PLAINS INTO THE UPR GREAT LKS. WITH H85 TEMPS UP TO
8 TO 9C...EXPECT ABV NORMAL MAX TEMPS BOTH DAYS. BUT CLEAR SKIES/LGT
WINDS AT NGT WL SUPPORT A LARGE DIURNAL TEMP RANGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 153 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014
INCREASING NORTHERLY UPSLOPE WINDS AND EXPANDING PCPN WILL LEAD
TO IFR OR LOWER MVFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THE STRENGTHENING NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST
AT KSAW THIS AFTN/EVENING WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 30KT. AS DRIER
AIR BEGINS TO FLOW INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT...
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR AT ALL TERMINALS WITH PCPN
DIMINISHING OR ENDING. IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR FIRST AT KCMX AND LAST
AT KSAW AS MOISTURE THINS OUT THERE LATEST.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014
AS A LO PRES DEEPENS NEAR JAMES BAY TODAY...EXPECT NNW GALES TO
35-40 KTS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO SAT MORNING
OVER ALL BUT FAR WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. CONTINUED GALE WARNINGS
ISSUED YESTERDAY. ISSUED GALE WARNINGS FOR THE LAKE MICHIGAN
NEARSHORE WATERS AND THE NORTHERN BAY OF GREEN BAY AS AXIS OF
HIGHEST WINDS WILL EXTEND INTO THAT AREA BY THIS EVENING BEFORE THE
FREQUENT GALE FORCE GUSTS DIMINISH ON SAT MORNING. AS A HI PRES
RIDGE APPROACHES FROM THE W ON SAT...THE STRONG WINDS WILL DIMINISH
W-E. ALTHOUGH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE/SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK...NO STRONG WINDS ARE
EXPECTED.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LSZ266-267.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LSZ244-245-248-249-264-
265.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LSZ250-251.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ242-243-246-247-
263.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
LMZ221-248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1236 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014
MADE ADDITIONAL CHANGES TO SKY COVER THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.
OVERCAST SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF REGION WITH A FEW BREAKS
ACROSS NORTHWEST. GFS/MAV GUIDANCE WAS IGNORED...AS IT IS WAY TOO
OPTIMISTIC. FOLLOWED MORE OF A NAM/HRRR BLEND WHICH IS VERIFYING
BETTER AND HOLDS ON TO CLOUD COVER INTO SATURDAY MORNING...WHILE
HITTING IT HARDEST ACROSS CENTRAL ND. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH
TRENDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND MAKE ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS AS
NEEDED. OTHERWISE...FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 915 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND ONLY CHANGES WERE TO BLEND CURRENT
OBS TO FORECAST. MAIN ISSUE TODAY WILL BE CLOUD COVER AND WHEN
CLEARING WILL OCCUR. WATER VAPOR CONTINUES TO SHOW WEAK SHORTWAVE
ENTERING WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...SUPPORTING ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER
WITH REMAINDER OF STATE OVERCAST PER 11-3.9 IMAGERY AND EARLY
MORNING VIS IMAGERY AND OBS. SOME DISCREPANCY BETWEEN MODELS WITH
REGARD TO TIMING OF CLEARING WITH GFS/MAV MUCH MORE OPTIMISTIC
THAN NAM/HRRR GUIDANCE. WILL CONTINUE THE SLOWER CLEARING THAT IS
ALREADY DEPICTED IN FORECAST GRIDS. NAM/HRRR ARE INDICATING CLOUDS
LINGERING IN CENTRAL/EASTERN ND WELL INTO NIGHT. WILL SEE HOW
TRENDS DEVELOP TODAY BEFORE ADJUSTING SKY TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...WINDS ARE STILL GUSTY CENTRAL/EAST BUT SHOULD
GRADUALLY TAPER DOWN DURING THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. A FEW BREAKS IN THE LOWER MVFR
CEILINGS IN THE WEST IS BEING COVERED BY A BAND OF HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON SKY COVER THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS SO NO UPDATES NEEDED HERE. ONLY CHANGES WERE TO
UPDATE LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014
LATEST SUITE OF SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY
CONDITIONS COVERING JUST ABOUT ALL OF WESTERN/CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SOUTHWEST. NAM BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS AND THE LATEST HRRR CEILING FORECAST KEEP A NEARLY
SATURATED LAYER...ALBEIT SHALLOW...FROM 900MB TO 850MB ACROSS
MAINLY CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY. THE WEST WILL SEE A RETURN TO A
PARTLY CLOUDY SKY BY LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS
MOISTURE IS NOT AS DEEP AND SUBSIDENCE/DRYING OCCURS BEHIND A
DEPARTING SHORTWAVE THIS AFTERNOON. A H85 COLD POCKET OF 0C TO +2C
SLIDES INTO THE EAST CENTRAL ZONES TODAY KEEPING UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS IN PLACE AS STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE 925-H85 LAYER ARE
MAINTAINED FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS SOUTH INTO THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY. THUS WITH THE EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS UPSTREAM PER FOG/STRATUS
IMAGERY LOOP...IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE LATEST TIME HEIGHT RH CROSS
SECTIONS...CLOUDS/BRISK WINDS WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY EVENING
BEFORE CLEARING BEGINS TO TAKE PLACE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S NORTH AND EAST TO LOWER 50S SOUTHWEST.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS TWO SHORTWAVES...THE FIRST WAS
SHORTWAVE WAS CIRCULATING OVER NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA...AND THIS IS
FORECAST TO SLIDE INTO SOUTHEAST MONTANA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LARGE
SCALE ASCENT IS LACKING FOR ANYTHING MUCH MORE THAN CLOUDS THROUGH
THE MORNING IN THE SOUTHWEST...THEN AS MENTIONED ABOVE SOME CLEARING
THIS AFTERNOON ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SHORTWAVE. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL/NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN...AND THIS IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF NORTH DAKOTA TODAY
AS IT MOVES INTO MANITOBA AND MINNESOTA. DECREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS 30 TO 35F.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014
THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE A WARMING TREND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL NOT BE UNTIL THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIMEFRAME
NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE
PLAINS THIS WEEKEND FOR A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. SOUTHERLY WINDS
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE 50S CENTRAL TO THE LOWER 60S WEST.
ON SUNDAY A WEAK FRONT WILL BRING NORTHWEST WINDS AT 10 TO 15
MPH...BUT THE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT IS MILD PACIFIC AIR AND HIGHS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE STATE.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST ACROSS
THE PLAINS. HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER
60S NORTHEAST TO LOWER 70S SOUTHWEST.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES...PUTTING THE DAKOTAS UNDER A SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. THIS WILL BRING SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. CURRENTLY THE MODEL BLEND SOLUTION BRINGS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
INTO THE WEST WEDNESDAY...AND CENTRAL/EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LATEST DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN
WEAKER/DRIER WITH THIS FEATURE...WITH THE MAIN ENERGY ALOFT LIFTING
WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...COULD SEE A DRY
FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURES COOL ONLY SLIGHTLY WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY...BUT IT WILL REMAIN MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014
MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION WITH CIGS AROUND
1000 FEET. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF CLEARING ACROSS THE
WEST...INCLUDING KISN AND KDIK. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
WEAKEN ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JNS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...JNS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
659 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT SHIFTING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT OVER
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OHIO. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL ALLOW COOL TEMPERATURES TO SPILL SOUTH AND COVER THE AREA
SATURDAY. A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL WEATHER SYSTEM WILL DIG SOUTHEAST
ACROSS OHIO AND KENTUCKY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BRINGING
A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS. IN ADDITION...THE COOL AIR FLOWING
OVER LAKE MICHIGAN MAY ALLOW A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
NORTHERN INDIANA AND AFFECT THE TRI STATE ON SATURDAY MORNING IN
ADVANCE OF THE STRONGER WAVE IN THE AFTERNOON. A DRY SUNDAY IS
EXPECTED WITH COOL TEMPERATURES LINGERING. LOOKING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...WITH A CHANCE OF
RAIN MOVING BACK INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES
INTO THE GREAT LAKES FROM CANADA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
17.18Z RAP ANALYSIS AND OBSERVATIONAL DATA /GOES WATER VAPOR DATA/
INDICATE A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING LAKE MICHIGAN AND
EASTERN WISCONSIN. AT THE SURFACE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...IS A
STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS WRN LOWER MICHIGAN...INDIANA...INTO
SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS. LOW CLOUDS ARE STREAKING QUICKLY ACROSS NRN
INDIANA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT IN DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CAA.
GUSTY WAA/MIXING IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO
RISE TO NEAR 70F AREA-WIDE...WITH DWPTS MIXING STEADILY INTO THE
UPPER 40S AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON. IN THE PAST FEW HOURS...SOME
HIGH BASED CUMULUS HAVE DEVELOPED IN A FORCED ASCENT REGION
IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM OF THE SHORTWAVE OVER NERN IND/NWRN
OH...WITH SPRINKLES/-SHRA NOW DEVELOPING.
EXPECT SOME HIGHER-BASED SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP IN ACCORDANCE WITH RECENT HRRR...17.12Z HIRES
ARW/NMM/NAM/GEM. THESE SHOULD DEVELOP/STREAK DOWNSTREAM ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-70 THROUGH THIS EVENING SO INTRODUCED VERY SMALL
CHANCES OF A MEASURABLE SHOWER ESP FOR AREAS FROM CELINA TO KENTON
OVER TO DELAWARE. COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY CROSS THE CWA THIS
EVENING AND STRONG CAA TO ENSUE WITH BRISK/GUSTY NW WINDS. BRING
CLOUD COVER UP QUICKLY IN THE NWLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...WITH CONTINUED MENTION OF A SPRINKLE/-SHRA INTO THE
OVERNIGHT IN OUR FAR NORTH WHICH IS JUXTAPOSED WITH THE DEEPEST
/RELATIVELY SPEAKING/ MOISTURE AND MODEST FORCED ASCENT FROM THE
SHORTWAVE CROSSING MICH/LAKE HURON. LATER IN THE NIGHT /AFTER 3 AM
OR SO/...THE STRONG COLD ADVECTION SHOULD BEGIN WORKING THE WARM
SRN LAKE MICHIGAN LAKE WATERS AND ALL CONVECTION-ALLOWING GUIDANCE
INDICATES STREAMERS OF -SHRA DEVELOPING OFF LAKE MICHIGAN PUSHING
INTO ECNTL IND TOWARD THE CWA VERY LATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ON 19.12Z...THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE MENTIONED ABOVE WILL BE PUSHING
INTO UPSTATE NY...WHILE A SECOND STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS
QUICKLY SOUTHEAST INTO WIS/ILL. THINK THERE IS A LULL IN THE
SYNOPTIC FORCING FROM 12Z-18Z...SO RAIN CHANCES IN THE MORNING
QUITE SMALL. LOW LEVEL STRATUS/STRATOCUMULUS WILL BE RATHER
WIDESPREAD...BUT THERE MAY BE SOME HOLES HERE AND THERE AMIDST THE
STRONG CAA. LAKE MICHIGAN-INDUCED BANDS OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TO POSE A THREAT INTO THE TRI-STATE AREA ON A LIMITED/NARROW
BASIS...AS MOST 17.12Z CAM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST SHRA
BANDS WILL BE MAINTAINED OFF LAKE MICHIGAN INTO SERN IND/SWRN
OH/NRN KY.
THE SECOND POTENT S/W BRINGS A BRIEF BUT DEEP MOISTURE FIELD AND
COMPACT VERTICAL MOTION SIGNAL. SEEMS QPF IN THE DETERMINISTIC
RUNS MAY BE UNDERDONE GIVEN A PURELY MOISTURE/LIFT PERSPECTIVE
FROM 17.12Z NAM/GFS...BUT THERE IS ACKNOWLEDGMENT THAT ANTECEDENT
MOISTURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES IS HARDLY IMPRESSIVE. THUS...EXPECT
BAND/S/ OF SHOWERS TO SPREAD NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVE. INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES A BIT BUT THINK THEY COULD GO EVEN A LITTLE HIGHER IF
FORCING/MOISTURE SIGNAL STILL LOOKS DECENT. A CHILLY...GREY DAY
FOR THE MOST PART...WITH HIGHS ONLY MOVING UP A FEW DEGREES OFF
THE MORNING LOWS...MOSTLY LOW-MID 50S GIVEN 850MB TEMPS PLUNGING
TO 0C BY MIDDAY OVER OHIO/INDIANA. A BRISK WIND WILL ADD TO THE CHILL.
THIS FORCING QUICKLY SLIDES EAST SATURDAY NIGHT WITH CLEARING
SKIES. THIS IS IMPORTANT AND STILL A LOW CONFIDENCE POINT...IF
SUBSIDENCE IS EFFICIENT AT ERODING LOW CLOUDS...MAY BE DEALING
WITH A WIDESPREAD FROST /AND POTENTIAL FREEZE/ IN OUR NORTH/WEST
COUNTIES LATER SAT NIGHT. A FEW HOURS EITHER WAY MAKE/BREAK THIS
FORECAST...AND THIS PUTS CNTL OH/SCIOTO VALLEY IN A REAL QUESTION
MARK AS THERE WON/T BE MUCH OF A WINDOW FOR FROST FORMATION IF LOW
CLOUDS ARE SLOW IN ERODING. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT OWING TO
DECOUPLING BOUNDARY LAYER. 17.12Z NAM HAS MORE WIND AND A HIGHER
POTENTIAL OF LOW CLOUDS HANGING IN THEN 17.12Z GFS...WHICH LOOKS
VERY FROSTY IN OUR NORTH/WEST. AT A MINIMUM THINK WE/LL PROBABLY
NEED FROST ADVISORIES FOR WCNTL OH/SERN IND/PORTIONS OF SWRN OH
SAT NIGHT...WITH POTENTIAL FREEZE HEADLINES IN FAR NORTH/WEST AND
MORE WIDESPREAD FROST HEADLINES IF CLEARING IS AHEAD OF SCHEDULE.
SUNDAY BRINGS A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AS S/W RIDGING MOVES IN.
BOUNDARY LAYER SLOW TO WARM AFTER THE CHILLY START AND ONLY LOW-
MID 50S ARE SUGGESTED GIVEN LIGHT WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND
BETTER WAA REMAINING ATOP THE BOUNDARY LAYER. WARM ADVECTION
BECOMES STRONGER SUNDAY NIGHT AS THETA-E ADVECTION INCREASES AHEAD
OF NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THERE STILL
MAY BE A FROST THREAT IN CNTL OH/SCIOTO VALLEY AS THEY WILL BE
LAST TO SEE INCREASING CLOUDS/SWLY WINDS. DID INTRODUCE A SMALL
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FAR WEST/NORTH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT GIVEN
SIGNALS IN ECMWF/GFS...THOUGH NAM/SREF ARE QUITE DRY IN THE
SUBCLOUD LAYER BELOW THE ADVANCING MID CLOUD.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN GFS/ECMWF IN THE OVERALL UPR PATTERN
AND THE ASSOC SFC FEATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED...ALTHOUGH SOME
CHANGES IN BOTH MODELS FROM YESTERDAY INCLUDE A DEEPER UPR LEVEL LOW
AND THEREFOR SLOWER TO DEPART THE REGION PRIOR TO THE DEEP RIDGING
DOMINATING THE CENTRAL/WESTERN CONUS IN THE LATTER PART OF THE
EXTENDED. HAVE LINGERED SHOWERS NOW THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY IN THE
EAST AS THE UPR LOW CONTINUES TO BECOME DEEPER WITH EACH MODEL RUN
AND WILL RESULT IN PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER IN THE EAST WELL INTO
WEDNESDAY. HAVE ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT LOWS UPWARD IN THE TUE NIGHT/WED
NIGHT TIMEFRAME ACCORDINGLY WITH THE DELAY IN POST FRONTAL CLEARING.
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR UPDATES IN TEMPS/PRECIP/CLOUDS IN THE EAST
IF THE LOW CONTINUES TO SLOW/DEEPEN.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CEILINGS OVER THE AREA ARE CURRENTLY COMFORTABLY IN THE VFR
RANGE...WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OBSERVED OVER NORTHWEST OHIO AND
NORTHERN INDIANA. AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES INTO THE
OVERNIGHT...LOW CLOUDS UPSTREAM WILL GRADUALLY MOVE INTO THE
REGION...AND MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL THE TAF SITES BY
EARLY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AT THE DAYTON
AND COLUMBUS TAF SITES...BUT IF ANY OCCURS...IT WILL HAVE LITTLE
IMPACT ON AVIATION CONDITIONS.
MVFR CEILINGS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY...THOUGH THEY SHOULD LIFT ABOVE 2000 FEET IN HEIGHT. RAIN
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND COULD
IMPACT ANY OF THE TAF SITES AFTER 18Z. IMPACTS ARE GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO BE MINOR. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR RAIN APPEARS TO BE
AT THE COLUMBUS TAF SITES.
WESTERLY WINDS WILL SLIGHTLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING...BUT SUSTAINED
WINDS OF ABOVE 10 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS. AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST ON
SATURDAY...THEY WILL AGAIN BE BREEZY...WITH GUSTS REACHING THE
20-25 KNOT RANGE.
.OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY EVENING. MVFR
CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BINAU
NEAR TERM...BINAU
SHORT TERM...BINAU
LONG TERM...JDR
AVIATION...HATZOS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
340 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT SHIFTING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT OVER
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OHIO. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL ALLOW COOL TEMPERATURES TO SPILL SOUTH AND COVER THE AREA
SATURDAY. A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL WEATHER SYSTEM WILL DIG SOUTHEAST
ACROSS OHIO AND KENTUCKY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BRINGING
A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS. IN ADDITION...THE COOL AIR FLOWING
OVER LAKE MICHIGAN MAY ALLOW A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
NORTHERN INDIANA AND AFFECT THE TRI STATE ON SATURDAY MORNING IN
ADVANCE OF THE STRONGER WAVE IN THE AFTERNOON. A DRY SUNDAY IS
EXPECTED WITH COOL TEMPERATURES LINGERING. LOOKING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...WITH A CHANCE OF
RAIN MOVING BACK INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES
INTO THE GREAT LAKES FROM CANADA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
17.18Z RAP ANALYSIS AND OBSERVATIONAL DATA /GOES WATER VAPOR DATA/
INDICATE A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING LAKE MICHIGAN AND
EASTERN WISCONSIN. AT THE SURFACE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...IS A
STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS WRN LOWER MICHIGAN...INDIANA...INTO
SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS. LOW CLOUDS ARE STREAKING QUICKLY ACROSS NRN
INDIANA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT IN DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CAA.
GUSTY WAA/MIXING IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO
RISE TO NEAR 70F AREA-WIDE...WITH DWPTS MIXING STEADILY INTO THE
UPPER 40S AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON. IN THE PAST FEW HOURS...SOME
HIGH BASED CUMULUS HAVE DEVELOPED IN A FORCED ASCENT REGION
IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM OF THE SHORTWAVE OVER NERN IND/NWRN
OH...WITH SPRINKLES/-SHRA NOW DEVELOPING.
EXPECT SOME HIGHER-BASED SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP IN ACCORDANCE WITH RECENT HRRR...17.12Z HIRES
ARW/NMM/NAM/GEM. THESE SHOULD DEVELOP/STREAK DOWNSTREAM ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-70 THROUGH THIS EVENING SO INTRODUCED VERY SMALL
CHANCES OF A MEASURABLE SHOWER ESP FOR AREAS FROM CELINA TO KENTON
OVER TO DELAWARE. COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY CROSS THE CWA THIS
EVENING AND STRONG CAA TO ENSUE WITH BRISK/GUSTY NW WINDS. BRING
CLOUD COVER UP QUICKLY IN THE NWLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...WITH CONTINUED MENTION OF A SPRINKLE/-SHRA INTO THE
OVERNIGHT IN OUR FAR NORTH WHICH IS JUXTAPOSED WITH THE DEEPEST
/RELATIVELY SPEAKING/ MOISTURE AND MODEST FORCED ASCENT FROM THE
SHORTWAVE CROSSING MICH/LAKE HURON. LATER IN THE NIGHT /AFTER 3 AM
OR SO/...THE STRONG COLD ADVECTION SHOULD BEGIN WORKING THE WARM
SRN LAKE MICHIGAN LAKE WATERS AND ALL CONVECTION-ALLOWING GUIDANCE
INDICATES STREAMERS OF -SHRA DEVELOPING OFF LAKE MICHIGAN PUSHING
INTO ECNTL IND TOWARD THE CWA VERY LATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ON 19.12Z...THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE MENTIONED ABOVE WILL BE PUSHING
INTO UPSTATE NY...WHILE A SECOND STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS
QUICKLY SOUTHEAST INTO WIS/ILL. THINK THERE IS A LULL IN THE
SYNOPTIC FORCING FROM 12Z-18Z...SO RAIN CHANCES IN THE MORNING
QUITE SMALL. LOW LEVEL STRATUS/STRATOCUMULUS WILL BE RATHER
WIDESPREAD...BUT THERE MAY BE SOME HOLES HERE AND THERE AMIDST THE
STRONG CAA. LAKE MICHIGAN-INDUCED BANDS OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TO POSE A THREAT INTO THE TRI-STATE AREA ON A LIMITED/NARROW
BASIS...AS MOST 17.12Z CAM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST SHRA
BANDS WILL BE MAINTAINED OFF LAKE MICHIGAN INTO SERN IND/SWRN
OH/NRN KY.
THE SECOND POTENT S/W BRINGS A BRIEF BUT DEEP MOISTURE FIELD AND
COMPACT VERTICAL MOTION SIGNAL. SEEMS QPF IN THE DETERMINISTIC
RUNS MAY BE UNDERDONE GIVEN A PURELY MOISTURE/LIFT PERSPECTIVE
FROM 17.12Z NAM/GFS...BUT THERE IS ACKNOWLEDGMENT THAT ANTECEDENT
MOISTURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES IS HARDLY IMPRESSIVE. THUS...EXPECT
BAND/S/ OF SHOWERS TO SPREAD NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVE. INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES A BIT BUT THINK THEY COULD GO EVEN A LITTLE HIGHER IF
FORCING/MOISTURE SIGNAL STILL LOOKS DECENT. A CHILLY...GREY DAY
FOR THE MOST PART...WITH HIGHS ONLY MOVING UP A FEW DEGREES OFF
THE MORNING LOWS...MOSTLY LOW-MID 50S GIVEN 850MB TEMPS PLUNGING
TO 0C BY MIDDAY OVER OHIO/INDIANA. A BRISK WIND WILL ADD TO THE CHILL.
THIS FORCING QUICKLY SLIDES EAST SATURDAY NIGHT WITH CLEARING
SKIES. THIS IS IMPORTANT AND STILL A LOW CONFIDENCE POINT...IF
SUBSIDENCE IS EFFICIENT AT ERODING LOW CLOUDS...MAY BE DEALING
WITH A WIDESPREAD FROST /AND POTENTIAL FREEZE/ IN OUR NORTH/WEST
COUNTIES LATER SAT NIGHT. A FEW HOURS EITHER WAY MAKE/BREAK THIS
FORECAST...AND THIS PUTS CNTL OH/SCIOTO VALLEY IN A REAL QUESTION
MARK AS THERE WON/T BE MUCH OF A WINDOW FOR FROST FORMATION IF LOW
CLOUDS ARE SLOW IN ERODING. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT OWING TO
DECOUPLING BOUNDARY LAYER. 17.12Z NAM HAS MORE WIND AND A HIGHER
POTENTIAL OF LOW CLOUDS HANGING IN THEN 17.12Z GFS...WHICH LOOKS
VERY FROSTY IN OUR NORTH/WEST. AT A MINIMUM THINK WE/LL PROBABLY
NEED FROST ADVISORIES FOR WCNTL OH/SERN IND/PORTIONS OF SWRN OH
SAT NIGHT...WITH POTENTIAL FREEZE HEADLINES IN FAR NORTH/WEST AND
MORE WIDESPREAD FROST HEADLINES IF CLEARING IS AHEAD OF SCHEDULE.
SUNDAY BRINGS A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AS S/W RIDGING MOVES IN.
BOUNDARY LAYER SLOW TO WARM AFTER THE CHILLY START AND ONLY LOW-
MID 50S ARE SUGGESTED GIVEN LIGHT WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND
BETTER WAA REMAINING ATOP THE BOUNDARY LAYER. WARM ADVECTION
BECOMES STRONGER SUNDAY NIGHT AS THETA-E ADVECTION INCREASES AHEAD
OF NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THERE STILL
MAY BE A FROST THREAT IN CNTL OH/SCIOTO VALLEY AS THEY WILL BE
LAST TO SEE INCREASING CLOUDS/SWLY WINDS. DID INTRODUCE A SMALL
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FAR WEST/NORTH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT GIVEN
SIGNALS IN ECMWF/GFS...THOUGH NAM/SREF ARE QUITE DRY IN THE
SUBCLOUD LAYER BELOW THE ADVANCING MID CLOUD.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN GFS/ECMWF IN THE OVERALL UPR PATTERN
AND THE ASSOC SFC FEATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED...ALTHOUGH SOME
CHANGES IN BOTH MODELS FROM YESTERDAY INCLUDE A DEEPER UPR LEVEL LOW
AND THEREFOR SLOWER TO DEPART THE REGION PRIOR TO THE DEEP RIDGING
DOMINATING THE CENTRAL/WESTERN CONUS IN THE LATTER PART OF THE
EXTENDED. HAVE LINGERED SHOWERS NOW THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY IN THE
EAST AS THE UPR LOW CONTINUES TO BECOME DEEPER WITH EACH MODEL RUN
AND WILL RESULT IN PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER IN THE EAST WELL INTO
WEDNESDAY. HAVE ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT LOWS UPWARD IN THE TUE NIGHT/WED
NIGHT TIMEFRAME ACCORDINGLY WITH THE DELAY IN POST FRONTAL CLEARING.
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR UPDATES IN TEMPS/PRECIP/CLOUDS IN THE EAST
IF THE LOW CONTINUES TO SLOW/DEEPEN.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED OUT LEAVING ONLY FEW TO SCATTERED CLOUDS
THIS AFTN IN WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT. COLD FRONT TO
SWEEP EAST THRU THE TAF SITES FROM WEST TO EAST DURG LATE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING HOURS. THIS FRONT WILL COME THRU DRY FOLLOWED
BY AN OVERCAST DECK OF CLOUDS IN THE MVFR CATEGORY.
EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO PERSIST ON SATURDAY WITH A SHOWER OR SPRINKLE
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AT KDAY/KILN/KCVG AND KLUK. COVERAGE AND
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE FCST.
SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 KTS THIS AFTN WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE AGAIN
SATURDAY.
.OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BINAU
NEAR TERM...BINAU
SHORT TERM...BINAU
LONG TERM...JDR
AVIATION...AR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1120 AM MDT FRI OCT 17 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM MDT FRI OCT 17 2014
THE VERY NICE FALL WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A WEAK FRONT HAS BACKED ACROSS THE PLAINS AND TEMPS ARE
CHILLY WITH MANY LOCATIONS IN THE LOW-TO-MID 30S. STRATUS IS
CURRENTLY ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
THE HRRR PUSHES THE LOW CLOUDS INTO THE FAR EASTERN ZONES BY
SUNRISE...HOWEVER BELIEVE IT MAY BE A BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE. A DROP
IN TEMPS OF 5-10 DEGREES WILL BE SEE TODAY ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S AS OPPOSED TO THE 70S FROM THE PAST FEW
DAYS. HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE ON SAT WITH WARM ADVECTION. TEMPS WILL
BE BACK UP INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE
BREEZY DURING THE AFTN OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AS PRESSURE
FALLS OCCUR OVER EASTERN MT DURING THE DAY. WEAK SHORTWAVE PUSHES
FROM MT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SAT NIGHT. OTHER THAN DRAGGING
A WEAK COOL FRONT OVER THE PANHANDLE ON SUN MORNING...THIS SYSTEM
WILL HAVE VERY LITTLE EFFECT ON THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES
OVERHEAD ON SUN FOR A CONTINUATION OF THE TRANQUIL WEATHER
CONDITIONS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM MDT FRI OCT 17 2014
DRY AND MILD TO START OFF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES MONDAY WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT INTO THE
PLAINS WITH A TROUGH TO PUSH INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY MID WEEK.
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS INTO THE 70S
ACROSS MOST OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 60S INTO THE WEST. TUESDAY
COULD BE VERY WARM FOR THE LATER PORTIONS OF OCTOBER. MAY SEE RECORD
HIGHS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA ASSUMING HIGH CLOUDS ARE NOT TOO
EXTENSIVE AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE WEDNESDAY BASED ON CURRENT MODEL TIMING.
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE IN THE FORM OF LIQUID...AND THAT MAY
ALSO HOLD TRUE FOR THE MOUNTAINS AS THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH IN THE
WAY OF COLD AIR FROM THIS PACIFIC SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1120 AM MDT FRI OCT 17 2014
VFR OVER ALL AERODROMES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT SFC WINDS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 249 AM MDT FRI OCT 17 2014
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
5-10 DEGREES COOLER TODAY FOR AREAS TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE. MINIMUM AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE IN THE 20-30
PERCENT RANGE TO THE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. WITH WEAK SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS...WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 15 MPH
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...SML
AVIATION...RE
FIRE WEATHER...FINCH