Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 10/17/14


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RENO NV
1053 AM PDT WED OCT 15 2014 .UPDATE... OBSERVATIONS FROM AROUND THE REGION SHOW WINDS DECREASING. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OVER THE AREA WHICH WILL BRING COOLER AIR AND LESS WIND ALOFT INTO THE REGION. THE COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL HELP INCREASE INSTABILITY AND DECREASE THE LIKELIHOOD FOR ANY DOWNSLOPE ENHANCEMENT EAST OF THE SIERRA. BUT DRIER AIR WILL ALSO BEGIN WORKING INTO THE REGION WHICH WILL CAUSE A DECREASE IN SHOWERS EVEN AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES A LITTLE MORE UNSTABLE. OVERALL...WIND GUSTS IN WIND PRONE AREAS MAY CONTINUE TO REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR A FEW HOURS...BUT THESE WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD. WILL ALLOW THE WIND ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AND WILL HOIST LAKE WIND ADVISORIES FOR TAHOE AND PYRAMID THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. PYRAMID MAY DROP FASTER THAN TAHOE AND THESE WILL BE REVISITED WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST. WILL INCREASE POPS JUST SLIGHTLY FOR THE WEST SIDE OF THE TAHOE BASIN AS UP SLOPE ENHANCEMENT GETS INTO THAT AREA AND PRODUCES A FEW MORE SHOWERS. 20 && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 AM PDT WED OCT 15 2014/ UPDATE... WINDS ARE DIMINISHING ACROSS THE RENO-TAHOE AREA, GUSTS HAVE DROPPED OFF TO LESS THAN 45 MPH AROUND RENO-TAHOE OUTSIDE OF A FEW FOOTHILL LOCATIONS ALONG HIGHWAY 395. BOATERS ON TAHOE AND PYRAMID WILL WANT TO USE CAUTION TODAY. EVEN AS WINDS DIMINISH WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY WITH CHOPPY TO ROUGH LAKE WATERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. FARTHER SOUTH GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH ARE OCCURRING IN MONO COUNTY. RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW HAS BEEN FOCUSED FROM I-80 AT DONNER SUMMIT NORTHWARD TO PLUMAS AND LASSEN COUNTIES, WHERE RAINFALL TOTALS UP TO 0.25 INCH HAVE BEEN REPORTED SO FAR THIS MORNING. PROFILERS AND RADAR DATA SUGGEST SNOW LEVELS ARE AS LOW AS 6500-7000 FEET IN WESTERN LASSEN COUNTY, WHILE SNOW LEVELS ELSEWHERE ARE AT 7000-8000 FEET. A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR ALONG THE SIERRA CREST BETWEEN DONNER SUMMIT AND CARSON PASS, BUT ROAD TEMPERATURES ARE TOO HIGH TO ALLOW SNOW TO STICK TO PAVED SURFACES. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH BY 10AM AS THE LOW LIFTS INTO SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO. BRONG SYNOPSIS... STRONG WINDS WILL END THIS MORNING AS A COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA, BUT BRISK WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. SCATTERED RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 THIS MORNING. DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND. STRONG WINDS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE WEST COAST. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 AM PDT WED OCT 15 2014/ SHORT TERM... THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS HAS REACHED THE WEST COAST WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY LEADING TO DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWER BANDS AND ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. LATEST GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE HRRR MODEL SPREAD THESE BANDS OF SHOWERS INTO NORTHEAST CA AND NORTHWEST NV AFTER 4 AM AND CONTINUING THROUGH 9 AM. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE SPOTTY BUT BRIEF BURSTS OF HEAVIER RAIN COULD BRING A QUICK 0.10 INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL FROM WESTERN LASSEN COUNTY SOUTHWARD TO NEAR TRUCKEE AND THE CALIFORNIA SIDE OF THE TAHOE BASIN. PARTS OF THE SURPRISE VALLEY AND NORTHWEST NV MAY RECEIVE UP TO 0.10 INCH OR RAINFALL. SNOW LEVELS THIS MORNING SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE 6500-7000 FOOT RANGE NORTH AND WEST OF PORTOLA, AND AROUND 7500 FEET ALONG THE SIERRA CREST WEST OF TAHOE. HOWEVER, IF A HEAVIER SHOWER PASSES OVER SOME OF THE SIERRA PASSES INCLUDING YUBA, DONNER AND ECHO SUMMITS, WET SNOW MAY BRIEFLY MIX IN BUT ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED ON ROADS. FOR THE REMAINDER OF WESTERN NEVADA, SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MAY BLOW INTO THE FOOTHILLS AROUND RENO AND CARSON CITY. MEANWHILE, THE ACTIVITY OVER NORTHWEST NV WEAKENS AS IT MOVES ACROSS PERSHING COUNTY NORTH OF LOVELOCK. BY THIS AFTERNOON, VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE VERY MUCH THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT, AND WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER OVER MOST OF THE REGION. AS FOR THE WIND EVENT, STRONG GUSTS WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AS THE RIDGE WINDS MIX DOWN INTO THE LEE SIDE VALLEYS. GUSTS BRIEFLY EDGING INTO HIGH WIND CRITERIA ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN THE ADVISORY AREAS THROUGH 6 AM. WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD STAY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT REMAIN BRISK WITH GUSTS IN THE 30-40 MPH RANGE BEFORE DIMINISHING BY EARLY EVENING. FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL SPREAD AREAS OF MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVERHEAD WHICH SHOULD LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING, AND PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING BELOW FREEZING AT NIGHT IN AREAS WHICH HAVE YET TO SEE A FREEZE SO FAR THIS FALL. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-UPPER 60S, THEN EDGE UPWARD BY A FEW DEGREES ON FRIDAY. THESE HIGHS ARE ASSUMING CLOUD COVER WILL PARTIALLY OBSCURE THE SUN DURING EACH AFTERNOON. A SPLITTING TROUGH REACHING THE SIERRA LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT MAY PRODUCE A FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS IN NORTHEAST CA AND FAR NORTHWEST NV, BUT LATEST TRENDS ARE SHOWING A DIMINISHING RAIN POTENTIAL WITH THIS TROUGH. MJD LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND. DEEP TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC ALONG 140W WITH A RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS A JET DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PACIFIC ALONG 45N. THIS SHOULD ALLOW MOISTURE AND ENERGY FROM THE TROUGH TO REACH THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA BY MONDAY. FOR THE WEEKEND, CONDITIONS WILL BE WARM AND DRY WITH LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW 70S FOR THE NEVADA VALLEYS WITH 60S FOR THE SIERRA. WINDS ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE MONDAY AS THE TROUGH REACHES THE WEST COAST, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG WIND EVENT. PEAK GUSTS COULD REACH 40-50 MPH WITH 60+ MPH IN WIND PRONE LOCATIONS ALONG HIGHWAY 395. AS USUAL WITH STRONG WIND EVENTS, MAIN IMPACTS ARE TO TRAVEL, AVIATION, BOATING AND FIRE WEATHER. MODELS DIFFER ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN SIERRA, BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS OR LIGHT RAIN FROM THE WEST SHORE OF TAHOE NORTHWARD TO LASSEN COUNTY. A SECOND WAVE MAY REACH THE AREA FOR TUESDAY, BUT THE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS ARE TOO GREAT TO HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE IN ANY POTENTIAL FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. BRONG AVIATION... STRONG WIND EVENT AT KRNO WILL BEGIN TO EASE UP EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE JET ENERGY AND COLD FRONT PASS THROUGH WESTERN NEVADA. WINDS WILL WEAKEN AS THEY SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST, BUT GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 KTS MAY PERSIST THROUGH 03Z THIS EVENING. LIGHT RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW WILL MOVE ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF KTRK-KLOL THIS MORNING. IN THE NORTHERN SIERRA TO WESTERN LASSEN COUNTY, MVFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCUREMENTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 18Z. SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST FOR THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THURSDAY TO SUNDAY. A STRONG WIND EVENT IS POSSIBLE MONDAY AS THE NEXT TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WEST COAST. BRONG && .REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NV...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR PYRAMID LAKE IN NVZ004. LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAKE TAHOE IN NVZ002. CA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAKE TAHOE IN CAZ072. && $$ FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT... HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RENO NV
633 AM PDT WED OCT 15 2014 .UPDATE... WINDS ARE DIMINISHING ACROSS THE RENO-TAHOE AREA, GUSTS HAVE DROPPED OFF TO LESS THAN 45 MPH AROUND RENO-TAHOE OUTSIDE OF A FEW FOOTHILL LOCATIONS ALONG HIGHWAY 395. BOATERS ON TAHOE AND PYRAMID WILL WANT TO USE CAUTION TODAY. EVEN AS WINDS DIMINISH WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY WITH CHOPPY TO ROUGH LAKE WATERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. FARTHER SOUTH GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH ARE OCCURRING IN MONO COUNTY. RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW HAS BEEN FOCUSED FROM I-80 AT DONNER SUMMIT NORTHWARD TO PLUMAS AND LASSEN COUNTIES, WHERE RAINFALL TOTALS UP TO 0.25 INCH HAVE BEEN REPORTED SO FAR THIS MORNING. PROFILERS AND RADAR DATA SUGGEST SNOW LEVELS ARE AS LOW AS 6500-7000 FEET IN WESTERN LASSEN COUNTY, WHILE SNOW LEVELS ELSEWHERE ARE AT 7000-8000 FEET. A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR ALONG THE SIERRA CREST BETWEEN DONNER SUMMIT AND CARSON PASS, BUT ROAD TEMPERATURES ARE TOO HIGH TO ALLOW SNOW TO STICK TO PAVED SURFACES. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH BY 10AM AS THE LOW LIFTS INTO SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO. BRONG && .SYNOPSIS... STRONG WINDS WILL END THIS MORNING AS A COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA, BUT BRISK WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. SCATTERED RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 THIS MORNING. DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND. STRONG WINDS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE WEST COAST. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 AM PDT WED OCT 15 2014/ SHORT TERM... THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS HAS REACHED THE WEST COAST WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY LEADING TO DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWER BANDS AND ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. LATEST GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE HRRR MODEL SPREAD THESE BANDS OF SHOWERS INTO NORTHEAST CA AND NORTHWEST NV AFTER 4 AM AND CONTINUING THROUGH 9 AM. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE SPOTTY BUT BRIEF BURSTS OF HEAVIER RAIN COULD BRING A QUICK 0.10 INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL FROM WESTERN LASSEN COUNTY SOUTHWARD TO NEAR TRUCKEE AND THE CALIFORNIA SIDE OF THE TAHOE BASIN. PARTS OF THE SURPRISE VALLEY AND NORTHWEST NV MAY RECEIVE UP TO 0.10 INCH OR RAINFALL. SNOW LEVELS THIS MORNING SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE 6500-7000 FOOT RANGE NORTH AND WEST OF PORTOLA, AND AROUND 7500 FEET ALONG THE SIERRA CREST WEST OF TAHOE. HOWEVER, IF A HEAVIER SHOWER PASSES OVER SOME OF THE SIERRA PASSES INCLUDING YUBA, DONNER AND ECHO SUMMITS, WET SNOW MAY BRIEFLY MIX IN BUT ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED ON ROADS. FOR THE REMAINDER OF WESTERN NEVADA, SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MAY BLOW INTO THE FOOTHILLS AROUND RENO AND CARSON CITY. MEANWHILE, THE ACTIVITY OVER NORTHWEST NV WEAKENS AS IT MOVES ACROSS PERSHING COUNTY NORTH OF LOVELOCK. BY THIS AFTERNOON, VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE VERY MUCH THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT, AND WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER OVER MOST OF THE REGION. AS FOR THE WIND EVENT, STRONG GUSTS WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AS THE RIDGE WINDS MIX DOWN INTO THE LEE SIDE VALLEYS. GUSTS BRIEFLY EDGING INTO HIGH WIND CRITERIA ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN THE ADVISORY AREAS THROUGH 6 AM. WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD STAY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT REMAIN BRISK WITH GUSTS IN THE 30-40 MPH RANGE BEFORE DIMINISHING BY EARLY EVENING. FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL SPREAD AREAS OF MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVERHEAD WHICH SHOULD LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING, AND PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING BELOW FREEZING AT NIGHT IN AREAS WHICH HAVE YET TO SEE A FREEZE SO FAR THIS FALL. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-UPPER 60S, THEN EDGE UPWARD BY A FEW DEGREES ON FRIDAY. THESE HIGHS ARE ASSUMING CLOUD COVER WILL PARTIALLY OBSCURE THE SUN DURING EACH AFTERNOON. A SPLITTING TROUGH REACHING THE SIERRA LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT MAY PRODUCE A FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS IN NORTHEAST CA AND FAR NORTHWEST NV, BUT LATEST TRENDS ARE SHOWING A DIMINISHING RAIN POTENTIAL WITH THIS TROUGH. MJD LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND. DEEP TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC ALONG 140W WITH A RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS A JET DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PACIFIC ALONG 45N. THIS SHOULD ALLOW MOISTURE AND ENERGY FROM THE TROUGH TO REACH THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA BY MONDAY. FOR THE WEEKEND, CONDITIONS WILL BE WARM AND DRY WITH LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW 70S FOR THE NEVADA VALLEYS WITH 60S FOR THE SIERRA. WINDS ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE MONDAY AS THE TROUGH REACHES THE WEST COAST, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG WIND EVENT. PEAK GUSTS COULD REACH 40-50 MPH WITH 60+ MPH IN WIND PRONE LOCATIONS ALONG HIGHWAY 395. AS USUAL WITH STRONG WIND EVENTS, MAIN IMPACTS ARE TO TRAVEL, AVIATION, BOATING AND FIRE WEATHER. MODELS DIFFER ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN SIERRA, BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS OR LIGHT RAIN FROM THE WEST SHORE OF TAHOE NORTHWARD TO LASSEN COUNTY. A SECOND WAVE MAY REACH THE AREA FOR TUESDAY, BUT THE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS ARE TOO GREAT TO HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE IN ANY POTENTIAL FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. BRONG AVIATION... STRONG WIND EVENT AT KRNO WILL BEGIN TO EASE UP EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE JET ENERGY AND COLD FRONT PASS THROUGH WESTERN NEVADA. WINDS WILL WEAKEN AS THEY SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST, BUT GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 KTS MAY PERSIST THROUGH 03Z THIS EVENING. LIGHT RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW WILL MOVE ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF KTRK-KLOL THIS MORNING. IN THE NORTHERN SIERRA TO WESTERN LASSEN COUNTY, MVFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCUREMENTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 18Z. SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST FOR THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THURSDAY TO SUNDAY. A STRONG WIND EVENT IS POSSIBLE MONDAY AS THE NEXT TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WEST COAST. BRONG && .REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING NVZ002-003. CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING CAZ072-073. && $$ FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT... HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RENO NV
307 AM PDT WED OCT 15 2014 .SYNOPSIS... STRONG WINDS WILL END THIS MORNING AS A COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA, BUT BRISK WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. SCATTERED RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 THIS MORNING. DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND. STRONG WINDS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE WEST COAST. && .SHORT TERM... THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS HAS REACHED THE WEST COAST WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY LEADING TO DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWER BANDS AND ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. LATEST GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE HRRR MODEL SPREAD THESE BANDS OF SHOWERS INTO NORTHEAST CA AND NORTHWEST NV AFTER 4 AM AND CONTINUING THROUGH 9 AM. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE SPOTTY BUT BRIEF BURSTS OF HEAVIER RAIN COULD BRING A QUICK 0.10 INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL FROM WESTERN LASSEN COUNTY SOUTHWARD TO NEAR TRUCKEE AND THE CALIFORNIA SIDE OF THE TAHOE BASIN. PARTS OF THE SURPRISE VALLEY AND NORTHWEST NV MAY RECEIVE UP TO 0.10 INCH OR RAINFALL. SNOW LEVELS THIS MORNING SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE 6500-7000 FOOT RANGE NORTH AND WEST OF PORTOLA, AND AROUND 7500 FEET ALONG THE SIERRA CREST WEST OF TAHOE. HOWEVER, IF A HEAVIER SHOWER PASSES OVER SOME OF THE SIERRA PASSES INCLUDING YUBA, DONNER AND ECHO SUMMITS, WET SNOW MAY BRIEFLY MIX IN BUT ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED ON ROADS. FOR THE REMAINDER OF WESTERN NEVADA, SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MAY BLOW INTO THE FOOTHILLS AROUND RENO AND CARSON CITY. MEANWHILE, THE ACTIVITY OVER NORTHWEST NV WEAKENS AS IT MOVES ACROSS PERSHING COUNTY NORTH OF LOVELOCK. BY THIS AFTERNOON, VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE VERY MUCH THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT, AND WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER OVER MOST OF THE REGION. AS FOR THE WIND EVENT, STRONG GUSTS WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AS THE RIDGE WINDS MIX DOWN INTO THE LEE SIDE VALLEYS. GUSTS BRIEFLY EDGING INTO HIGH WIND CRITERIA ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN THE ADVISORY AREAS THROUGH 6 AM. WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD STAY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT REMAIN BRISK WITH GUSTS IN THE 30-40 MPH RANGE BEFORE DIMINISHING BY EARLY EVENING. FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL SPREAD AREAS OF MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVERHEAD WHICH SHOULD LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING, AND PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING BELOW FREEZING AT NIGHT IN AREAS WHICH HAVE YET TO SEE A FREEZE SO FAR THIS FALL. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-UPPER 60S, THEN EDGE UPWARD BY A FEW DEGREES ON FRIDAY. THESE HIGHS ARE ASSUMING CLOUD COVER WILL PARTIALLY OBSCURE THE SUN DURING EACH AFTERNOON. A SPLITTING TROUGH REACHING THE SIERRA LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT MAY PRODUCE A FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS IN NORTHEAST CA AND FAR NORTHWEST NV, BUT LATEST TRENDS ARE SHOWING A DIMINISHING RAIN POTENTIAL WITH THIS TROUGH. MJD .LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND. DEEP TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC ALONG 140W WITH A RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS A JET DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PACIFIC ALONG 45N. THIS SHOULD ALLOW MOISTURE AND ENERGY FROM THE TROUGH TO REACH THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA BY MONDAY. FOR THE WEEKEND, CONDITIONS WILL BE WARM AND DRY WITH LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW 70S FOR THE NEVADA VALLEYS WITH 60S FOR THE SIERRA. WINDS ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE MONDAY AS THE TROUGH REACHES THE WEST COAST, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG WIND EVENT. PEAK GUSTS COULD REACH 40-50 MPH WITH 60+ MPH IN WIND PRONE LOCATIONS ALONG HIGHWAY 395. AS USUAL WITH STRONG WIND EVENTS, MAIN IMPACTS ARE TO TRAVEL, AVIATION, BOATING AND FIRE WEATHER. MODELS DIFFER ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN SIERRA, BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS OR LIGHT RAIN FROM THE WEST SHORE OF TAHOE NORTHWARD TO LASSEN COUNTY. A SECOND WAVE MAY REACH THE AREA FOR TUESDAY, BUT THE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS ARE TOO GREAT TO HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE IN ANY POTENTIAL FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. BRONG && .AVIATION... STRONG WIND EVENT AT KRNO WILL BEGIN TO EASE UP EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE JET ENERGY AND COLD FRONT PASS THROUGH WESTERN NEVADA. WINDS WILL WEAKEN AS THEY SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST, BUT GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 KTS MAY PERSIST THROUGH 03Z THIS EVENING. LIGHT RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW WILL MOVE ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF KTRK-KLOL THIS MORNING. IN THE NORTHERN SIERRA TO WESTERN LASSEN COUNTY, MVFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCUREMENTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 18Z. SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST FOR THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THURSDAY TO SUNDAY. A STRONG WIND EVENT IS POSSIBLE MONDAY AS THE NEXT TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WEST COAST. BRONG && .REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING NVZ002-003. CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING CAZ072-073. && $$ FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT... HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
741 PM EDT THU OCT 16 2014 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT THU OCT 16 2014 A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS EVENING...PRIMARILY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN...FAR NORTHEAST INDIANA AND IN NORTHWEST OHIO. THEREAFTER EXPECT VARIABLE...BUT GENERALLY MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE NIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING TO AROUND 50. FOR FRIDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BRING A BIT WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN SEEN THURSDAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REACH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN...AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM REACHES THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT THU OCT 16 2014 WEAK/SHALLOW CONVECTION WITH ISOLD SHRA EASTERN HALF TO LIFT OUT/END AS CYCLONIC FLOW LOW LEVEL FLOW CENTERED IN FAR SWRN ONTARIO BEGINS NORTHWARD LIFT THIS EVENING/COINCIDENT WITH INCREASING 0-2KM STABILITY. CONCERN LATER TONIGHT REVOLVES AROUND STRATUS REFORMATION/FILL-IN AS ELEVATED 2KFT FLOW BEGINS TO RAMP TO 40 KTS ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA AFTER 06 UTC. GIVEN EXTENSIVE COVERAGE AND MEAGER LIFTING OF BASES OF CU FIELD THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL AS SURFACE RIDGELINE STILL UPSTREAM /ERN WI SWD INTO WRN TN/...WILL SIDE A BIT MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH CLOUD COVERAGE AND TOWARD WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE BLEND...THOUGH CONCEDE CONFIDENCE SOMEWHAT LIMITED. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO SUCCINCT/POTENT UPSTREAM WAVE OVER EASTERN ND AND CONTINUED EASTWARD SLIDE INTO CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY MIDDAY FRI AND TO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN BY 21 UTC. NORTHERN HALF CWA IN CLOSER PROXIMITY OF STRONG HEIGHT FALL CENTROID...WITH GENERALLY 60-90M/12 HR FALLS SKIRTING NORTHERN CWA. ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE AND HIGH NEAR SURFACE CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS SHOULD PROVIDE DRY WX FOR ALL BUT FAR NORTHWEST/NORTHERN CWA THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THOUGH AS DEEPER CAA BEGINS TO SETTLE IN NWRN CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON RAMPED POPS 21-24 UTC TIMEFRAME WITH LAKE/8H DIFFERENTIALS BEGINNING TO RAMP/REACHING LOWER 20C RANGE BY SHORT/LONG TERM TIMEFRAME CROSSOVER. CONTINUED SIMILAR TO PRIOR FORECAST TOWARD HIGHER SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH EXPECTATION OF MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON INSOLATION WITHIN INCREASINGLY DEEPER MIXED BLYR WITH WESTERN FRINGE OF THERMAL TONGUE OVER SERN CWA. && .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT THU OCT 16 2014 SEPARATE PV ANOMALIES / ONE COMPACT OVER NORTH DAKOTA AND ANOTHER BAROTROPIC LOW CENTERED NEAR LAKE HURON PER AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR / WILL PHASE OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL PLACE THE LOCAL AREA WITHIN A COOL/PERTURBED NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME UNDER THE RESULTING NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY. A SERIES OF SMALLER SCALE VORTS WITH PASSAGE OF THE MAIN MID LEVEL TROUGH...AND STRONG LOW LEVEL CAA/LAKE ACTIVATION IN VEERED NWRLY FLOW...WILL BRING CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR A FEW SHOWERS/SPRINKLES TO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. DECENT LOW LEVEL HEIGHT GRADIENT ON SW PERIPHERY OF CONSOLIDATED SOUTHEAST CANADA LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD SUPPORT GUSTS 20-30 MPH ON SATURDAY...WITH WHEN COMBINED WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S WILL RESULT IN A RATHER RAW/CHILLY SATURDAY. SUNDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE BETTER WEEKEND DAY BEFORE THE NEXT MORE PRONOUNCED CLIPPER-LIKE SHORTWAVE DROPS IN AROUND MONDAY. LAST SEVERAL MODEL CYCLES OVERALL HAVE TRENDED FARTHER NORTH WITH THIS FEATURE AND ITS LIGHT WAA PCPN RESULTING IN A SLIGHT DECREASE IN POPS LOCALLY. OTHERWISE...THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK (TUE-THU) APPEARS DRY/COOL (NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW) IN BETWEEN A MID ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST CUT-OFF LOW AND AMPLIFYING CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 741 PM EDT THU OCT 16 2014 VFR CONDS GIVING WAY TO MVFR CIGS THIS EVENING AS LAST RESIDUAL BAND OF LL MSTR TRAPPED BENEATH SHALLOW POST FNTL INVERSION WRAPPING EWD OUT OF NE IL. HWVR W/EWD PROGRESSION OF LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING AND INCREASING LL WAA DOUBT WRN EDGE OF MVFR STRATOCU DECK WILL MIX OUT OVERNIGHT AND WILL LIKELY HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL WELL AFT SUNRISE FRI. AS SUCH AND IN LIGHT OF LATEST RAP INTERATION ALG W/18Z HIGHRES GUIDANCE...DROPPED PRIOR LLWS MENTION W/STGR H85 FLW HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFT DAYBREAK. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. MI...NONE. OH...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ043-046. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MURPHY SHORT TERM...MURPHY LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL AVIATION...T VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1135 PM MDT TUE OCT 14 2014 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 111 PM MDT TUE OCT 14 2014 EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW BLOCKY RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN ACROSS THE US...WITH AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE WESTER US THE DOMINATE FEATURE FOR OUR CWA. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE OVER OUR CWA WITH A WEAK LEE TROUGH BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER COLORADO. DUE TO THE STRONG RIDGE KEEPING CONDITIONS CLEAR AND DRY ACROSS OUR CWA...PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS ON MODERATING TEMPS AND POTENTIAL FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY. SOUTHERLY GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO TIGHTEN AS LEE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN WEDNESDAY...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING AROUND 25 MPH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPS SHOULD WARM TO THE UPPER 70S...POSSIBLY THE LOWER 80S. MODELS ARE TENDING TO ADVECT HIGHER TD VALUES NORTH WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW...HOWEVER IT APPEARS THE BETTER MOISTURE SHOULD BE CUT OFF TO THE SOUTH AT LEAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE AFTERNOON. MIXING HEIGHTS ARE SOMEWHAT LIMITED BY ELEVATED INVERSION...HOWEVER WE SHOULD STILL SEE TD VALUES MIX TO THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S IN THE WEST. RESULT WOULD BE RH VALUES RIGHT ABOVE 15 PERCENT. AFTER COORDINATION WITH PARTNERS CURRENT FUELS SHOULD SUPPORT EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH FOR ALL OF OUR CWA EXCEPT FOR GREELEY AND WICHITA COUNTIES. CONDITIONS WILL BE CLOSE TO CRITERIA...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN A 3HR CROSSOVER OF WIND/RH IS LOW SO A RED FLAG WARNING IS PLANNED DURING THIS UPDATE WEDNESDAY. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 204 PM MDT TUE OCT 14 2014 MAIN CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD IS NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY. A BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD SHALL LEAD TO LITTLE TO NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER THROUGHOUT. BEGINNING WITH THURSDAY...A STRONG...FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS TROUGH ALSO FORCES A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS TROUGH SHALL BE A SLIGHT COOLING OF TEMPERATURES...ALBEIT REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL...DRIER AIR AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS. FIRE WEATHER MAY BECOME A CONCERN FOR THURSDAY IF TEMPERATURES ARE WARMER AND DEWPOINTS LOWER THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO BRING SOME CONCERN THAT DRIER AIR ALOFT COULD MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE AND BRING MUCH LOWER HUMIDITIES. CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY NEAR 20 PERCENT AND WIND GUSTS 30-35 MPH. MADE SOME CALLS TO LOCAL FIRE WEATHER PARTNERS AND CONSENSUS SEEMS TO BE FUELS ARE CURED ENOUGH TO CARRY A FIRE THREAT. FOR NOW...WILL MENTION CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE HWO BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A WATCH. FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...EXPECTING QUIET WEATHER FOR THE MOST PART. FORECAST GUIDANCE IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A SYSTEM MOVING IN SUNDAY. THE SYSTEM IS FAIRLY WEAK AND MOST GUIDANCE ANTICIPATES A FURTHER SOUTH TRACK AND SLOWER PACE COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. WHILE A SHOWER OR TWO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT COMPLETELY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...DID NOT THINK THAT A PRECIP MENTION WAS REQUIRED. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES LOOKS TO BREAK DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THIS HAPPENS...A TROUGH REPLACES THE RIDGE AND BRINGS SOUTH WINDS AND HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT...PRIMING THE AREA FOR POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION BY MID-WEEK. THIS SYSTEM REPRESENTS THE NEXT BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AND POTENTIALLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IF TEMPERATURES/INSTABILITY ARE HIGH ENOUGH. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1132 PM MDT TUE OCT 14 2014 VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE 6Z TAFS. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME GUSTY WEDNESDAY LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DECLINE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DR LONG TERM...RRH AVIATION...JTL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
221 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2014 .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday night) Issued at 221 PM CDT WED OCT 15 2014 Water vapor imagery shows deep low centered over west OH covering much of the Great Lakes south to the southern Appalachians. Energy aloft continues to move SSE within the backside flow. Light showers and drizzle persisted across the area mainly east of the Mississippi. Cross section depiction off the RAP showed moisture depth up through 500mb over the KEVV tri-state (where IR shows enhancement -15/-20C), tapering off to a narrow corridor h9/h8 around KPOF and KUNO. Will continue highest chance PoPs east, to near nothing SEMO through the remainder of the afternoon and evening, with a slow drop in PoPs from west to east with time, as the low gradually moves east. Lows tonight, will hedge toward Raw Model output (a degree or two above MOS), given clouds. Gradual decreasing clouds from west to east expected Thursday as the low slowly pulls away. Clouds may hang on and be slow to clear KEVV tri-state and into the Pennyrile. Even central sections, once some clearing takes place, may see diurnal development take over. Despite a frontal passage Friday, quite weather is anticipated given a very dry air mass Thursday night through Friday night. Some clouds expected, but that`s it. Temps Thursday through Friday night will be a blend of existing forecast numbers, the latest MOS and Raw Model output. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 221 PM CDT WED OCT 15 2014 A dry and seasonably cool northwest flow pattern is expected during the long term. Very little if any precipitation will occur...and temps will average a few degrees cooler than usual for mid October. On Saturday...a 500 mb shortwave trough will dig southeast across the Ohio Valley. Little if any moisture will accompany this feature. A cool northerly low level flow will become rather gusty ahead of high pressure over the Plains. By Sunday...the surface high will be nearly over the Ohio Valley...ensuring a continuation of mainly clear and cool conditions. Another 500 mb shortwave will dig southeast across the Ohio Valley on Monday. There may be a few showers with this system. The 12z gfs and gefs are drier than previous runs...so pops will be kept only in the slight chance category. On Tuesday into Wednesday...a deep layer ridge will become established over or just west of the Mississippi Valley. A light northeast wind flow will keep dry and cool conditions in place. && .AVIATION... Issued at 1250 PM CDT WED OCT 15 2014 Blanket of low clouds continues to envelope the region as cool moist northwest winds persist around low pressure over the middle Ohio Valley. Slight diurnal improvement in cigs and vsbys will continue this afternoon...then a slow decrease in cigs will occur tonight. The kevv/kowb areas will likely experience ifr cigs much of the night. Diurnal improvement will again start Thursday morning...with vfr conditions are kcgi. The kowb area will be the last to rise above ifr conditions...maybe not until late morning Thursday. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. MO...NONE. IN...NONE. KY...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
201 PM EDT WED OCT 15 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 201 PM EDT WED OCT 15 2014 SHOWERS ARE STARTING TO FILL IN ACROSS THE AREA ON SCHEDULE. THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK...SO HAVE ONLY ADJUSTED SOME OF THE NEAR TERM HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO JIVE BETTER WITH THE OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 1151 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2014 A VORT LOBE WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...SWINGING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SO FAR...THE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN SPOTTY AND LIGHT ON RADAR...SO SLOWED THE TIMING OF THE HIGHER POPS A BIT MORE BASED ON THESE TRENDS AS WELL AS THE HRRR MODEL. WENT AHEAD AND ALLOWED FOR CATEGORICAL POPS FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA...AS MOS HAS COME IN WITH 80-90 POPS FOR THOSE LOCATIONS. FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS AS WELL TO ACCOUNT FOR A SPEEDIER WARM UP BEFORE THE THICKER CLOUDS COME IN. THE FORECAST HIGHS STILL LOOK ON TARGET...SO ONLY MADE A FEW TWEAKS BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT. UPDATE ISSUED AT 656 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2014 SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OUT WEST AND MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING. THE POP FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK TO HANDLE THE RAIN MOVING IN. ALL THE FOG HAS JUST ABOUT RISEN INTO A STRATUS LAYER IN ALL OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK SO HAVE UPLOADED THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND THE GRIDS TO NDFD SERVERS. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2014 CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY FEATURES AN UPPER LEVEL LOW POSITIONED OVER NORTHERN INDIANA WITH A SURFACE TROUGH JUST NOW SWINGING INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY WITH EASTERN KENTUCKY STILL IN A DRY SLOT REGION BEHIND AN EXITING FRONT NOW WELL ACROSS THE LEE SIDE OF THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN. THIS BREAK HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE VALLEYS EARLIER IN THE NIGHT BUT CLOUD COVER ROLLING IN FROM THE WEST WITH THE APPROACH OF THE TROUGH COUPLED WITH LIFTED STRATUS LAYERS DUE TO THE INCREASE IN SOUTHWEST WINDS...FOG IS LIFTING IN MANY AREAS. THERE WAS AN SPS ISSUED FOR THE FOG BUT BASED ON TRENDS OUT WEST AND WHAT HAS ALREADY HAPPENED HERE...WILL LET THE SPS EXPIRE. HEADING INTO TODAY...THE EVER PRESENT AND SLOWLY TRUDGING EAST...UPPER LOW WILL KEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY AS A TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. MODELS ARE QUITE INSISTENT ON LIKELY TO CAT POPS TODAY WITH THE SHOWERS EXPECTED. WENT WITH A COMPROMISE OF THE NAM AND GFS WHILE KEEPING SOME CONSISTENCY WITH THE SURROUNDING OFFICES. THE COMBINATION OF WEAK INSTABILITY AND STILL SOME 0.70 TO 0.90 PWATS WILL BE ENOUGH FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. FELT THAT THIS WAS NOT ENOUGH FOR CATEGORICAL POPS AND KEPT LIKELY INTO THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT. WITH THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER OVERHEAD TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT LOWER OVER THE AREA WITH LOWER 60S EXPECTED. HEADING INTO TONIGHT THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SWING THROUGH AS THE LOW OVER NORTHERN INDIANA WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL KEEP AT LEAST CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT AND EFFECTIVELY KEEP FOG FROM DEVELOPING TONIGHT. FOR THURSDAY...A GENERAL AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND NAM HAVE THE LOW EXITING BY THURSDAY EVENING AND EXITING SHOWERS. CLOUD COVER WILL STILL BE MAINTAINED DUE TO LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CAUGHT UP IN THE TERRAIN BUT ALL PRECIP SHOULD EXIT BY THIS TIME. JUST LIKE TODAY...ANY SHOWERS WILL BE CAPPED OFF WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY AND NO THUNDER IS EXPECTED. THE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER SHOWER ACTIVITY AS WELL AS ADVECTION NOW FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGHS. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 413 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2014 EARLY IN THE PERIOD...THE CLOSED LOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE DEPARTING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION WHILE RATHER WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS POISED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE LOWER OH AND TN VALLEYS IN ITS WAKE FOR THU NIGHT. CORRESPONDING SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE DEEP SOUTH SHOULD ALSO BRIEFLY BUILD NORTH INTO THE AREA FOR THU NIGHT INTO EARLY ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THIS WILL ONLY BE BRIEF AS A MOISTURE STARVED SFC COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WORK INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY FOR FRI INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. OVERALL...THE PATTERN WILL EVOLVE TO A RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS TO START THE WEEKEND WITH A TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE EASTERN CONUS. THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF RUNS CONTINUE TO VARY WITH HEIGHTS ACROSS THE OH VALLEY REGION OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE ECMWF A LITTLE STRONG WITH INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES WORKING ACROSS THE AREA FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY ON SAT AND NEXT SAT EVENING INTO SAT NIGHT. THE ECMWF SCENARIO WOULD SUPPORT A BIT MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER AND IT ALSO REMAINS COLDER...THOUGH THE 850 MB TEMPS IN THE GFS HAVE TRENDED COLDER OVER THE WEEKEND COMPARED TO MODEL RUNS FROM 24 HOURS AGO. LATE IN THE PERIOD...THE EASTERN TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE ROCKIES OVER THE WEEKEND SHIFTING EAST TOWARD THE PLAINS AND MS VALLEY REGION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. IN NW FLOW...MODELS BRING A SFC SYSTEM TOWARD THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE 0Z ECMWF IS QUICKER TO BRING MOISTURE AND PRECIP INTO THE REGION COMPARED TO THE 0Z GFS. HEIGHT RISES ARE PROGGED NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH CORRESPONDING SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE COMMONWEALTH. OVERALL...PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE QUICKLY DIMINISHING ON THU EVENING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AS THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO DEPART...THOUGH SOME LOW CLOUDS WILL BE LEFT BEHIND AS WELL. CLEARING ON THU NIGHT WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE CWA. POTENTIALLY DENSE FOG MAY BECOME A CONCERN FOR THU NIGHT... PENDING CLEARING...GIVEN SLACKENING WINDS AND MOIST GROUND FROM THE VERY WET START TO OCTOBER. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BRIEFLY IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY...TO NEAR 70...IF NOT A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE IN A FEW SPOTS WHICH IS NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE OH VALLEY WILL USHER IN A COLDER AIR MASS FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE WEEKEND AND THE SHORTWAVES IN NW FLOW FROM FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT WILL BRING LOW CLOUDS AT TIMES. AS THE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE CWA ON SAT NIGHT...THE EASTERN COUNTIES HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR CLOUDS SO THE COLDEST MIN T SHOULD BE ACROSS THE DEEPER WESTERN VALLEYS AND HIGHEST TERRAIN. MIN T FOR SUN NIGHT DEPENDS ON WHEN CLOUD COVER INCREASES. THE AIR MASS COULD BECOME DRY ENOUGH ON SUN INTO SUN NIGHT THAT IF CLOUDS ARE SLOW TO INCREASE...A FEW OF THE EASTERN VALLEYS MIGHT HAVE A THREAT OF FROST. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT HIGH AS THE 0Z ECMWF BRINGS THE CLOUDS IN A BIT FASTER THAN THE 0Z GFS. LATE IN THE PERIOD...LOW CHANCE POPS WERE USED FOR THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WORKING THROUGH THE OH AND TN VALLEY FROM MON INTO EARLY ON TUE. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 201 PM EDT WED OCT 15 2014 EXPECT NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO MOVE IN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...KNOCKING DOWN THE CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY. ONCE THE SHOWERS BECOME MORE SCATTERED LATER THIS EVENING...CEILINGS WILL LOWER DOWN TO IFR/LIFR STATUS. CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE WORSE ON THE RIDGES. ONLY A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED LATER WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS...WITH AN OCCASIONAL GUST TO AROUND 15 KTS...MAINLY SEEN AT LOZ AND SME THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GEOGERIAN SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER LONG TERM...JP AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
1151 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1151 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2014 A VORT LOBE WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...SWINGING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SO FAR...THE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN SPOTTY AND LIGHT ON RADAR...SO SLOWED THE TIMING OF THE HIGHER POPS A BIT MORE BASED ON THESE TRENDS AS WELL AS THE HRRR MODEL. WENT AHEAD AND ALLOWED FOR CATEGORICAL POPS FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA...AS MOS HAS COME IN WITH 80-90 POPS FOR THOSE LOCATIONS. FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS AS WELL TO ACCOUNT FOR A SPEEDIER WARM UP BEFORE THE THICKER CLOUDS COME IN. THE FORECAST HIGHS STILL LOOK ON TARGET...SO ONLY MADE A FEW TWEAKS BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT. UPDATE ISSUED AT 656 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2014 SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OUT WEST AND MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING. THE POP FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK TO HANDLE THE RAIN MOVING IN. ALL THE FOG HAS JUST ABOUT RISEN INTO A STRATUS LAYER IN ALL OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK SO HAVE UPLOADED THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND THE GRIDS TO NDFD SERVERS. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2014 CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY FEATURES AN UPPER LEVEL LOW POSITIONED OVER NORTHERN INDIANA WITH A SURFACE TROUGH JUST NOW SWINGING INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY WITH EASTERN KENTUCKY STILL IN A DRY SLOT REGION BEHIND AN EXITING FRONT NOW WELL ACROSS THE LEE SIDE OF THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN. THIS BREAK HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE VALLEYS EARLIER IN THE NIGHT BUT CLOUD COVER ROLLING IN FROM THE WEST WITH THE APPROACH OF THE TROUGH COUPLED WITH LIFTED STRATUS LAYERS DUE TO THE INCREASE IN SOUTHWEST WINDS...FOG IS LIFTING IN MANY AREAS. THERE WAS AN SPS ISSUED FOR THE FOG BUT BASED ON TRENDS OUT WEST AND WHAT HAS ALREADY HAPPENED HERE...WILL LET THE SPS EXPIRE. HEADING INTO TODAY...THE EVER PRESENT AND SLOWLY TRUDGING EAST...UPPER LOW WILL KEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY AS A TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. MODELS ARE QUITE INSISTENT ON LIKELY TO CAT POPS TODAY WITH THE SHOWERS EXPECTED. WENT WITH A COMPROMISE OF THE NAM AND GFS WHILE KEEPING SOME CONSISTENCY WITH THE SURROUNDING OFFICES. THE COMBINATION OF WEAK INSTABILITY AND STILL SOME 0.70 TO 0.90 PWATS WILL BE ENOUGH FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. FELT THAT THIS WAS NOT ENOUGH FOR CATEGORICAL POPS AND KEPT LIKELY INTO THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT. WITH THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER OVERHEAD TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT LOWER OVER THE AREA WITH LOWER 60S EXPECTED. HEADING INTO TONIGHT THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SWING THROUGH AS THE LOW OVER NORTHERN INDIANA WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL KEEP AT LEAST CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT AND EFFECTIVELY KEEP FOG FROM DEVELOPING TONIGHT. FOR THURSDAY...A GENERAL AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND NAM HAVE THE LOW EXITING BY THURSDAY EVENING AND EXITING SHOWERS. CLOUD COVER WILL STILL BE MAINTAINED DUE TO LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CAUGHT UP IN THE TERRAIN BUT ALL PRECIP SHOULD EXIT BY THIS TIME. JUST LIKE TODAY...ANY SHOWERS WILL BE CAPPED OFF WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY AND NO THUNDER IS EXPECTED. THE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER SHOWER ACTIVITY AS WELL AS ADVECTION NOW FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGHS. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 413 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2014 EARLY IN THE PERIOD...THE CLOSED LOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE DEPARTING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION WHILE RATHER WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS POISED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE LOWER OH AND TN VALLEYS IN ITS WAKE FOR THU NIGHT. CORRESPONDING SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE DEEP SOUTH SHOULD ALSO BRIEFLY BUILD NORTH INTO THE AREA FOR THU NIGHT INTO EARLY ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THIS WILL ONLY BE BRIEF AS A MOISTURE STARVED SFC COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WORK INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY FOR FRI INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. OVERALL...THE PATTERN WILL EVOLVE TO A RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS TO START THE WEEKEND WITH A TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE EASTERN CONUS. THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF RUNS CONTINUE TO VARY WITH HEIGHTS ACROSS THE OH VALLEY REGION OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE ECMWF A LITTLE STRONG WITH INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES WORKING ACROSS THE AREA FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY ON SAT AND NEXT SAT EVENING INTO SAT NIGHT. THE ECMWF SCENARIO WOULD SUPPORT A BIT MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER AND IT ALSO REMAINS COLDER...THOUGH THE 850 MB TEMPS IN THE GFS HAVE TRENDED COLDER OVER THE WEEKEND COMPARED TO MODEL RUNS FROM 24 HOURS AGO. LATE IN THE PERIOD...THE EASTERN TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE ROCKIES OVER THE WEEKEND SHIFTING EAST TOWARD THE PLAINS AND MS VALLEY REGION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. IN NW FLOW...MODELS BRING A SFC SYSTEM TOWARD THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE 0Z ECMWF IS QUICKER TO BRING MOISTURE AND PRECIP INTO THE REGION COMPARED TO THE 0Z GFS. HEIGHT RISES ARE PROGGED NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH CORRESPONDING SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE COMMONWEALTH. OVERALL...PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE QUICKLY DIMINISHING ON THU EVENING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AS THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO DEPART...THOUGH SOME LOW CLOUDS WILL BE LEFT BEHIND AS WELL. CLEARING ON THU NIGHT WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE CWA. POTENTIALLY DENSE FOG MAY BECOME A CONCERN FOR THU NIGHT... PENDING CLEARING...GIVEN SLACKENING WINDS AND MOIST GROUND FROM THE VERY WET START TO OCTOBER. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BRIEFLY IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY...TO NEAR 70...IF NOT A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE IN A FEW SPOTS WHICH IS NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE OH VALLEY WILL USHER IN A COLDER AIR MASS FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE WEEKEND AND THE SHORTWAVES IN NW FLOW FROM FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT WILL BRING LOW CLOUDS AT TIMES. AS THE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE CWA ON SAT NIGHT...THE EASTERN COUNTIES HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR CLOUDS SO THE COLDEST MIN T SHOULD BE ACROSS THE DEEPER WESTERN VALLEYS AND HIGHEST TERRAIN. MIN T FOR SUN NIGHT DEPENDS ON WHEN CLOUD COVER INCREASES. THE AIR MASS COULD BECOME DRY ENOUGH ON SUN INTO SUN NIGHT THAT IF CLOUDS ARE SLOW TO INCREASE...A FEW OF THE EASTERN VALLEYS MIGHT HAVE A THREAT OF FROST. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT HIGH AS THE 0Z ECMWF BRINGS THE CLOUDS IN A BIT FASTER THAN THE 0Z GFS. LATE IN THE PERIOD...LOW CHANCE POPS WERE USED FOR THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WORKING THROUGH THE OH AND TN VALLEY FROM MON INTO EARLY ON TUE. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 656 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2014 FOG OVER THE AREA HAS RISEN TO A STRATUS LAYER THIS MORNING AND HAVE PUT SOME MVFR CEILINGS IN THE TAFS TO ADDRESS THIS. SOME SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED OUT WEST AND WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING. AN APPROACHING TROUGH TODAY WILL SPAWN SOME MORE SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE PUT THIS INTO THE TAF SITES WITH MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS. HEADING INTO TONIGHT WILL GO WITH SOME VCSH CONTINUING BUT WILL ALSO GO WITH SOME IFR CEILINGS AT THE SITES. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN OVERALL LIGHT BUT SME AND LOZ MAY SEE SOME 15 KNOT SOUTHWEST GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON THEN BECOMING LIGHT AFTER 00Z. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GEOGERIAN SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER LONG TERM...JP AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
153 PM EDT WED OCT 15 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2014 00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW SLOW MOVING CLOSED LO OVER IL WITH 110KT H3 JET MAX MOVING N THRU LOWER MI TO THE E OF THIS FEATURE. THERE IS AN AREA OF RAIN OVER CENTRAL UPR MI UNDER SHARP SFC-H85 FRONTAL ZN/CYC FLOW...SOME UPR DVGC/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC IN THE EXIT REGION OF THIS JET STREAK AND CLOSER TO DEEPER MSTR DEPICTED ON THE 00Z GRB RAOB...WHERE 00Z PWAT WAS CLOSE TO AN INCH OR 165 PCT OF NORMAL. BUT FAIRLY DRY LYR BTWN H7-9 SHOWN ON THE 00Z APX RAOB APPEARS TO BE LIMITING THE PCPN COVERAGE FARTHER TO THE E...WHERE CLD TOP TEMPS WERE WARMING PER IR STLT IMAGERY DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF THE HEALTHY DYNAMIC FORCING THERE AS WELL. NE WINDS ARE GUSTING AS HI AS ARND 35 MPH OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL UPR MI UNDER THE TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT IN THAT AREA. OVER THE FAR W...SKIES ARE MOCLR CLOSER TO SFC RDG AXIS RUNNING FM NW ONTARIO SWWD THRU MN AND VERY DRY AIRMASS SHOWN ON THE 00Z INL RAOB. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS NEAR IWD...WHERE SOME UPSLOPE LO CLDS HAVE DVLPD. MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM WL BE FOCUSED ON POPS ASSOCIATED WITH LEFT EXIT FORCING OF JET STREAK IN LOWER MI. TODAY...ALTHOUGH THE DRY AIR SHOWN ON THE 00Z APX RAOB IS LIMITING THE RA COVERAGE OVER THE ERN CWA EARLY THIS MRNG...MOST OF THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS AN AREA OF HIER H85 DEWPTS WRAPPING WWD INTO THE E HALF OF UPR MI BY 09Z. THE INTERACTION BTWN THIS INCRSG MSTR AND DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC...UPR DVGC AND H85-7 FGEN SHOULD RESULT IN EXPANDING POPS FOR THE E HALF OF UPR MI. RECENT IR STLT IMAGERY IN FACT SHOWS COOLING CLD TOPS IN THIS AREA. VERY DRY AIR TO THE W WL SUPPORT A FAIRLY SHARP WRN EDGE OF THE HIER POPS ACRS THE CENTRAL CWA. AS THE CLOSED LO/ACCOMPANYING JET STREAK TO THE S DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE E THRU THE DAY AND TO NEAR CINCINNATI BY 00Z...THE DYNAMIC FORCING WL TEND TO DIMINISH AND SHIFT EWD AS WELL... RESULTING IN LOWERING POPS UNDER DECAYING MSTR RIBBON THAT WL STILL MAINTAIN OVC SKIES AT LEAST OVER THE E HALF. ALL THIS ACTION WL REMAIN AWAY FM THE WRN CWA...WHERE MORE SUNSHINE UNDER AREA OF DRIER AIR/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC WL BOOST TEMPS WELL INTO THE 50S AFTER ANY LINGERING LO CLDS/FOG MIX OUT. SLOWLY WEAKENING PRES GRADIENT WL ALLOW FOR DIMINISHING WINDS...BUT LINGERING HI WAVES WHIPPED UP BY THE HIER WAVES MAY CAUSE SOME MINOR BEACH EROSION OVER THE NCENTRAL ESPECIALLY THIS MRNG. TNGT...AS THE CLOSED UPR LO/DYNAMIC SUPPORT SHIFTS SLOWLY TO THE E...LINGERNING SHOWERS OVER THE E WL SLOWLY DIMINISH TO NO MORE THAN SCHC POPS LATE. BUT MANY OF THE MODELS HINT LO CLDS WL LINGER OVER MAINLY THE NCENTRAL AND E WITH PERSISTENT/ALBEIT WEAKENING SFC-H925 NE FLOW OFF LK SUP UNDER SHARP SUBSIDENCE INVRN. ADDED A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG OVER THE W LATE WHERE SKIES ARE MORE LIKELY TO TURN MOCLR WITH A DOWNSLOPE ESE WIND COMPONENT. LOWERED FCST MIN TEMPS WELL INTO THE 30S IN THIS AREA. LINGERING CLDS WL LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP FALL OVER THE NCENTRAL AND E. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2014 THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE SRN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL MOVE OVER OH BY 12Z THU AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NRN PLAINS. BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS WILL BE THE RIDGE OVER THE NWRN CWA. BY 12Z FRI...MODELS SHOW THE GREAT LAKES LOW HAVING MOVED TO THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER E OF LAKE SUPERIOR WHILE MERGING WITH THE SYSTEM COMING OUT OF THE NRN PLAINS...WHICH WILL HAVE STRENGTHENED INTO A CLOSED LOW AND WILL MOVE OVER OR NEAR THE MN ARROWHEAD. THE SFC COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NRN PLAINS LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WRN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z FRI...BUT BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LAGS THE FRONT BY AROUND 6 HOURS. AS A RESULT...MINIMAL PRECIP IS EXPECTED BEFORE FROM 12Z THU TO 12Z FRI AS THE RIDGE WILL BE MOVING OVERHEAD AND THE CWA WILL BE BETWEEN THE AREAS OF FORCING. THE ONLY PLACE WHERE SOME VERY MINOR RAIN MAY FALL IS OVER ERN UPPER MI IF ANY SHORTWAVE ENERGY CAN ROTATE AROUND THE GREAT LAKES LOW. THE NRN PLAINS LOW WILL SHIFT ACROSS UPPER MI ON FRI INTO FRI EVENING. MODELS AGREE WELL ON THIS OCCURRING...BUT DO VARY SLIGHTLY ON TIMING WITH THE 12Z/14 ECMWF BEING FASTER...THE 00Z/15 NAM BEING SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF BY ABOUT 6 HOURS AND THE 00Z/15 GFS BETWEEN THE TWO. 850MB TEMPS FALL FROM A MAX OF AROUND 10C AT 00Z FRI TO 3-4C AT 18Z FRI AND THEN TO AROUND -2C OVER NWRN UPPER MI BEHIND THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT BY 00Z SAT /WITH THE MEAN TIMING BETWEEN THE MODELS/. THE COMBINATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND UPSLOPE FLOW THAT BECOMES INCREASINGLY LAKE ENHANCED EASILY JUSTIFIES LIKELY POPS FOR RAIN OVER NW PRECIP BELTS. EXPECT SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. CAA CONTINUES FRI NIGHT WITH 850MB TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND -5C BY 12Z SAT...ALTHOUGH THE NAM IS SLOWER AND THEREFORE WARMER. WINDS TURN MORE N-NNW FRI NIGHT...SO THE LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED AREAS SHIFT SLIGHTLY FROM FRI EVENING. FRI NIGHT...PRECIP SHOULD TURN TO ALL SNOW OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NCENTRAL AND WRN UPPER MI...MEANING THE FIRST MEASURABLE SNOWFALL FOR THE SEASON WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. ELSEWHERE...A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH NO ACCUMULATIONS. EVEN THE LARGER SCALE ECMWF AND GLOBAL GEM SHOW UP TO 0.2 INCHES OF QPF BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z SAT...SO EXPECT MORE IN THE FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS...ESPECIALLY IF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH AS IS HINTED AT BY GUIDANCE. WHILE IT IS STILL PRETTY FAR OUT TO BE TALKING ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS...AN OR MAYBE TWO OF SNOW IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION LATE FRI NIGHT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...MAINLY ON GRASSY OR ELEVATED SURFACES. SATURDAY IS THE TRICKIER FORECAST SINCE UPPER LEVEL FORCING IS OUT OF THE AREA...MODELS VARY ON HOW COLD THE AIRMASS WILL BE AND DRY AIR WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE NW. THE ECMWF SHOWS 850MB TEMPS GENERALLY WARMING THROUGH THE DAY TO A RANGE OF 0C W TO -4C E. THE GFS IS COLDER IN SHOWING A SWATH OF -7C TO -8C 850MB TEMPS MOVING W TO E ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE DAY...ALTHOUGH THE PREVIOUS RUN DID NOT HAVE THIS. MODELS AGREE FAIRLY WELL ON MOISTURE...WITH 1000-700MB RH VALUES DROPPING BELOW 40 PERCENT OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR BY 18Z SAT...ALTHOUGH THE GFS DOES NOT MOVE THE DRY AIR E IN THE EVENING LIKE THE ECMWF DOES. THINK THE LES WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE W...WHILE PERSISTING MORE OVER THE E. ADDITIONAL SNOW IS EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE W AND NCENTRAL...BUT WITH DAYTIME HEATING NOT MUCH OF THAT SHOULD ACCUMULATE...ESPECIALLY ON THE ROADS. BY LATE SAT NIGHT...A SFC RIDGE WILL HAVE MOVED OVER THE WRN CWA AS MOISTURE DROPS OUT AND 850MB TEMPS INCREASE. THINK THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS...SO WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS SHIFT. FOR SUN THROUGH TUE...JUST USED CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE AS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN SHORTWAVE ENERGY MAY BRING SOME PRECIP LATE SUN INTO MON...WITH TUE LOOKING DRIER. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT WED OCT 15 2014 WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM ILLINOIS TO LOWER MICHIGAN WILL RESULT IN LOW CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF LOWER VSBY AT KSAW INTO THURSDAY. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO IFR LATER THIS AFTN...THEN FALL BACK TO LIFR OR EVEN VLIFR TONIGHT DUE TO PERSISTENT MOIST AND COOL NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW OFF OF LK SUPERIOR BENEATH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING ALOFT. CONDITIONS MAY APPROACH AIRPORT MINIMUMS. VERY LOW CONDITIONS WOULD CONTINUE INTO MID MORNING ON THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...AT KIWD AND KCMX...THOUGH THERE MAY BE SCT-BKN MVFR CLOUDS AT KCMX THIS AFTN...THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE IFR CATEGORY GROUND FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES OVER WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN. CONDITIONS WILL SHOW IMPROVEMENT AT ALL TAF SITES BY MIDDAY ON THURSDAY...BUT IMPROVEMENT WILL TAKE THE LONGEST AT KSAW. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2014 NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES STARTS TO WEAKEN WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 20 KTS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE ON FRIDAY AND THEN MERGES WITH THE LOW OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WHILE STRENGTHENING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG N-NW WINDS TO DEVELOP FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN GALES OF 35-40 KTS FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KC LONG TERM...TITUS AVIATION...JLA MARINE...TITUS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
727 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2014 00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW SLOW MOVING CLOSED LO OVER IL WITH 110KT H3 JET MAX MOVING N THRU LOWER MI TO THE E OF THIS FEATURE. THERE IS AN AREA OF RAIN OVER CENTRAL UPR MI UNDER SHARP SFC-H85 FRONTAL ZN/CYC FLOW...SOME UPR DVGC/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC IN THE EXIT REGION OF THIS JET STREAK AND CLOSER TO DEEPER MSTR DEPICTED ON THE 00Z GRB RAOB...WHERE 00Z PWAT WAS CLOSE TO AN INCH OR 165 PCT OF NORMAL. BUT FAIRLY DRY LYR BTWN H7-9 SHOWN ON THE 00Z APX RAOB APPEARS TO BE LIMITING THE PCPN COVERAGE FARTHER TO THE E...WHERE CLD TOP TEMPS WERE WARMING PER IR STLT IMAGERY DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF THE HEALTHY DYNAMIC FORCING THERE AS WELL. NE WINDS ARE GUSTING AS HI AS ARND 35 MPH OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL UPR MI UNDER THE TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT IN THAT AREA. OVER THE FAR W...SKIES ARE MOCLR CLOSER TO SFC RDG AXIS RUNNING FM NW ONTARIO SWWD THRU MN AND VERY DRY AIRMASS SHOWN ON THE 00Z INL RAOB. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS NEAR IWD...WHERE SOME UPSLOPE LO CLDS HAVE DVLPD. MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM WL BE FOCUSED ON POPS ASSOCIATED WITH LEFT EXIT FORCING OF JET STREAK IN LOWER MI. TODAY...ALTHOUGH THE DRY AIR SHOWN ON THE 00Z APX RAOB IS LIMITING THE RA COVERAGE OVER THE ERN CWA EARLY THIS MRNG...MOST OF THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS AN AREA OF HIER H85 DEWPTS WRAPPING WWD INTO THE E HALF OF UPR MI BY 09Z. THE INTERACTION BTWN THIS INCRSG MSTR AND DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC...UPR DVGC AND H85-7 FGEN SHOULD RESULT IN EXPANDING POPS FOR THE E HALF OF UPR MI. RECENT IR STLT IMAGERY IN FACT SHOWS COOLING CLD TOPS IN THIS AREA. VERY DRY AIR TO THE W WL SUPPORT A FAIRLY SHARP WRN EDGE OF THE HIER POPS ACRS THE CENTRAL CWA. AS THE CLOSED LO/ACCOMPANYING JET STREAK TO THE S DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE E THRU THE DAY AND TO NEAR CINCINNATI BY 00Z...THE DYNAMIC FORCING WL TEND TO DIMINISH AND SHIFT EWD AS WELL... RESULTING IN LOWERING POPS UNDER DECAYING MSTR RIBBON THAT WL STILL MAINTAIN OVC SKIES AT LEAST OVER THE E HALF. ALL THIS ACTION WL REMAIN AWAY FM THE WRN CWA...WHERE MORE SUNSHINE UNDER AREA OF DRIER AIR/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC WL BOOST TEMPS WELL INTO THE 50S AFTER ANY LINGERING LO CLDS/FOG MIX OUT. SLOWLY WEAKENING PRES GRADIENT WL ALLOW FOR DIMINISHING WINDS...BUT LINGERING HI WAVES WHIPPED UP BY THE HIER WAVES MAY CAUSE SOME MINOR BEACH EROSION OVER THE NCENTRAL ESPECIALLY THIS MRNG. TNGT...AS THE CLOSED UPR LO/DYNAMIC SUPPORT SHIFTS SLOWLY TO THE E...LINGERNING SHOWERS OVER THE E WL SLOWLY DIMINISH TO NO MORE THAN SCHC POPS LATE. BUT MANY OF THE MODELS HINT LO CLDS WL LINGER OVER MAINLY THE NCENTRAL AND E WITH PERSISTENT/ALBEIT WEAKENING SFC-H925 NE FLOW OFF LK SUP UNDER SHARP SUBSIDENCE INVRN. ADDED A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG OVER THE W LATE WHERE SKIES ARE MORE LIKELY TO TURN MOCLR WITH A DOWNSLOPE ESE WIND COMPONENT. LOWERED FCST MIN TEMPS WELL INTO THE 30S IN THIS AREA. LINGERING CLDS WL LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP FALL OVER THE NCENTRAL AND E. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2014 THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE SRN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL MOVE OVER OH BY 12Z THU AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NRN PLAINS. BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS WILL BE THE RIDGE OVER THE NWRN CWA. BY 12Z FRI...MODELS SHOW THE GREAT LAKES LOW HAVING MOVED TO THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER E OF LAKE SUPERIOR WHILE MERGING WITH THE SYSTEM COMING OUT OF THE NRN PLAINS...WHICH WILL HAVE STRENGTHENED INTO A CLOSED LOW AND WILL MOVE OVER OR NEAR THE MN ARROWHEAD. THE SFC COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NRN PLAINS LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WRN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z FRI...BUT BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LAGS THE FRONT BY AROUND 6 HOURS. AS A RESULT...MINIMAL PRECIP IS EXPECTED BEFORE FROM 12Z THU TO 12Z FRI AS THE RIDGE WILL BE MOVING OVERHEAD AND THE CWA WILL BE BETWEEN THE AREAS OF FORCING. THE ONLY PLACE WHERE SOME VERY MINOR RAIN MAY FALL IS OVER ERN UPPER MI IF ANY SHORTWAVE ENERGY CAN ROTATE AROUND THE GREAT LAKES LOW. THE NRN PLAINS LOW WILL SHIFT ACROSS UPPER MI ON FRI INTO FRI EVENING. MODELS AGREE WELL ON THIS OCCURRING...BUT DO VARY SLIGHTLY ON TIMING WITH THE 12Z/14 ECMWF BEING FASTER...THE 00Z/15 NAM BEING SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF BY ABOUT 6 HOURS AND THE 00Z/15 GFS BETWEEN THE TWO. 850MB TEMPS FALL FROM A MAX OF AROUND 10C AT 00Z FRI TO 3-4C AT 18Z FRI AND THEN TO AROUND -2C OVER NWRN UPPER MI BEHIND THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT BY 00Z SAT /WITH THE MEAN TIMING BETWEEN THE MODELS/. THE COMBINATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND UPSLOPE FLOW THAT BECOMES INCREASINGLY LAKE ENHANCED EASILY JUSTIFIES LIKELY POPS FOR RAIN OVER NW PRECIP BELTS. EXPECT SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. CAA CONTINUES FRI NIGHT WITH 850MB TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND -5C BY 12Z SAT...ALTHOUGH THE NAM IS SLOWER AND THEREFORE WARMER. WINDS TURN MORE N-NNW FRI NIGHT...SO THE LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED AREAS SHIFT SLIGHTLY FROM FRI EVENING. FRI NIGHT...PRECIP SHOULD TURN TO ALL SNOW OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NCENTRAL AND WRN UPPER MI...MEANING THE FIRST MEASURABLE SNOWFALL FOR THE SEASON WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. ELSEWHERE...A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH NO ACCUMULATIONS. EVEN THE LARGER SCALE ECMWF AND GLOBAL GEM SHOW UP TO 0.2 INCHES OF QPF BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z SAT...SO EXPECT MORE IN THE FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS...ESPECIALLY IF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH AS IS HINTED AT BY GUIDANCE. WHILE IT IS STILL PRETTY FAR OUT TO BE TALKING ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS...AN OR MAYBE TWO OF SNOW IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION LATE FRI NIGHT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...MAINLY ON GRASSY OR ELEVATED SURFACES. SATURDAY IS THE TRICKIER FORECAST SINCE UPPER LEVEL FORCING IS OUT OF THE AREA...MODELS VARY ON HOW COLD THE AIRMASS WILL BE AND DRY AIR WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE NW. THE ECMWF SHOWS 850MB TEMPS GENERALLY WARMING THROUGH THE DAY TO A RANGE OF 0C W TO -4C E. THE GFS IS COLDER IN SHOWING A SWATH OF -7C TO -8C 850MB TEMPS MOVING W TO E ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE DAY...ALTHOUGH THE PREVIOUS RUN DID NOT HAVE THIS. MODELS AGREE FAIRLY WELL ON MOISTURE...WITH 1000-700MB RH VALUES DROPPING BELOW 40 PERCENT OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR BY 18Z SAT...ALTHOUGH THE GFS DOES NOT MOVE THE DRY AIR E IN THE EVENING LIKE THE ECMWF DOES. THINK THE LES WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE W...WHILE PERSISTING MORE OVER THE E. ADDITIONAL SNOW IS EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE W AND NCENTRAL...BUT WITH DAYTIME HEATING NOT MUCH OF THAT SHOULD ACCUMULATE...ESPECIALLY ON THE ROADS. BY LATE SAT NIGHT...A SFC RIDGE WILL HAVE MOVED OVER THE WRN CWA AS MOISTURE DROPS OUT AND 850MB TEMPS INCREASE. THINK THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS...SO WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS SHIFT. FOR SUN THROUGH TUE...JUST USED CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE AS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN SHORTWAVE ENERGY MAY BRING SOME PRECIP LATE SUN INTO MON...WITH TUE LOOKING DRIER. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 724 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2014 ALTHOUGH THERE MAY STILL BE SOME UPSLOPE LO CLDS AT IWD EARLY THIS TAF PERIOD...VERY DRY AIR SHOWN ON THE 00Z INL/YPL RAOBS IN CONCERT WITH DAYTIME HEATING WL BRING ABOUT VFR CONDITIONS AT IWD AND CMX INTO TNGT. AS A HI PRES RDG MOVES OVHD TNGT AND WINDS TEND NEAR CALM UNDER A MOCLR SKY...SOME FOG MAY BRING SOME LOWER VSBYS. NOT CONFIDENT ENUF TO GO WITH AN IFR FCST...BUT THESE LOWER VSBYS WL NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION...ESPECIALLY AT IWD. FOR SAW...ALTHOUGH GUSTY NNE WINDS WL BE SLOWLY DIMINISHING THRU THE DAY AS LO PRES IN THE OH RIVER VALLEY SLOWLY SHIFTS TO THE E...FAVORABLE UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT IN THE PRESENCE OF DEEPER MSTR/A FEW -SHRA THIS MRNG WL RESULT IN LO CLDS THRU THE DAY. EXPECT IFR CIGS TO SLOWLY IMPROVE TO MVFR WITH SOME DAYTIME HEATING. ALTHOUGH SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES AN IMPROVEMENT AT SAW TNGT TO VFR...NOCTURNAL COOLING AND PERSISTENT ALBEIT LIGHTER UPSLOPE NNE WIND UNDER SHARP SUBSIDENCE INVRN SHOULD MAINTAIN LO CLDS AND AT LEAST MVFR CIGS. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2014 NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES STARTS TO WEAKEN WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 20 KTS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE ON FRIDAY AND THEN MERGES WITH THE LOW OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WHILE STRENGTHENING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG N-NW WINDS TO DEVELOP FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN GALES OF 35-40 KTS FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KC LONG TERM...TITUS AVIATION...KC MARINE...TITUS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
414 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2014 00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW SLOW MOVING CLOSED LO OVER IL WITH 110KT H3 JET MAX MOVING N THRU LOWER MI TO THE E OF THIS FEATURE. THERE IS AN AREA OF RAIN OVER CENTRAL UPR MI UNDER SHARP SFC-H85 FRONTAL ZN/CYC FLOW...SOME UPR DVGC/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC IN THE EXIT REGION OF THIS JET STREAK AND CLOSER TO DEEPER MSTR DEPICTED ON THE 00Z GRB RAOB...WHERE 00Z PWAT WAS CLOSE TO AN INCH OR 165 PCT OF NORMAL. BUT FAIRLY DRY LYR BTWN H7-9 SHOWN ON THE 00Z APX RAOB APPEARS TO BE LIMITING THE PCPN COVERAGE FARTHER TO THE E...WHERE CLD TOP TEMPS WERE WARMING PER IR STLT IMAGERY DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF THE HEALTHY DYNAMIC FORCING THERE AS WELL. NE WINDS ARE GUSTING AS HI AS ARND 35 MPH OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL UPR MI UNDER THE TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT IN THAT AREA. OVER THE FAR W...SKIES ARE MOCLR CLOSER TO SFC RDG AXIS RUNNING FM NW ONTARIO SWWD THRU MN AND VERY DRY AIRMASS SHOWN ON THE 00Z INL RAOB. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS NEAR IWD...WHERE SOME UPSLOPE LO CLDS HAVE DVLPD. MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM WL BE FOCUSED ON POPS ASSOCIATED WITH LEFT EXIT FORCING OF JET STREAK IN LOWER MI. TODAY...ALTHOUGH THE DRY AIR SHOWN ON THE 00Z APX RAOB IS LIMITING THE RA COVERAGE OVER THE ERN CWA EARLY THIS MRNG...MOST OF THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS AN AREA OF HIER H85 DEWPTS WRAPPING WWD INTO THE E HALF OF UPR MI BY 09Z. THE INTERACTION BTWN THIS INCRSG MSTR AND DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC...UPR DVGC AND H85-7 FGEN SHOULD RESULT IN EXPANDING POPS FOR THE E HALF OF UPR MI. RECENT IR STLT IMAGERY IN FACT SHOWS COOLING CLD TOPS IN THIS AREA. VERY DRY AIR TO THE W WL SUPPORT A FAIRLY SHARP WRN EDGE OF THE HIER POPS ACRS THE CENTRAL CWA. AS THE CLOSED LO/ACCOMPANYING JET STREAK TO THE S DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE E THRU THE DAY AND TO NEAR CINCINNATI BY 00Z...THE DYNAMIC FORCING WL TEND TO DIMINISH AND SHIFT EWD AS WELL... RESULTING IN LOWERING POPS UNDER DECAYING MSTR RIBBON THAT WL STILL MAINTAIN OVC SKIES AT LEAST OVER THE E HALF. ALL THIS ACTION WL REMAIN AWAY FM THE WRN CWA...WHERE MORE SUNSHINE UNDER AREA OF DRIER AIR/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC WL BOOST TEMPS WELL INTO THE 50S AFTER ANY LINGERING LO CLDS/FOG MIX OUT. SLOWLY WEAKENING PRES GRADIENT WL ALLOW FOR DIMINISHING WINDS...BUT LINGERING HI WAVES WHIPPED UP BY THE HIER WAVES MAY CAUSE SOME MINOR BEACH EROSION OVER THE NCENTRAL ESPECIALLY THIS MRNG. TNGT...AS THE CLOSED UPR LO/DYNAMIC SUPPORT SHIFTS SLOWLY TO THE E...LINGERNING SHOWERS OVER THE E WL SLOWLY DIMINISH TO NO MORE THAN SCHC POPS LATE. BUT MANY OF THE MODELS HINT LO CLDS WL LINGER OVER MAINLY THE NCENTRAL AND E WITH PERSISTENT/ALBEIT WEAKENING SFC-H925 NE FLOW OFF LK SUP UNDER SHARP SUBSIDENCE INVRN. ADDED A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG OVER THE W LATE WHERE SKIES ARE MORE LIKELY TO TURN MOCLR WITH A DOWNSLOPE ESE WIND COMPONENT. LOWERED FCST MIN TEMPS WELL INTO THE 30S IN THIS AREA. LINGERING CLDS WL LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP FALL OVER THE NCENTRAL AND E. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2014 THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE SRN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL MOVE OVER OH BY 12Z THU AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NRN PLAINS. BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS WILL BE THE RIDGE OVER THE NWRN CWA. BY 12Z FRI...MODELS SHOW THE GREAT LAKES LOW HAVING MOVED TO THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER E OF LAKE SUPERIOR WHILE MERGING WITH THE SYSTEM COMING OUT OF THE NRN PLAINS...WHICH WILL HAVE STRENGTHENED INTO A CLOSED LOW AND WILL MOVE OVER OR NEAR THE MN ARROWHEAD. THE SFC COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NRN PLAINS LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WRN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z FRI...BUT BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LAGS THE FRONT BY AROUND 6 HOURS. AS A RESULT...MINIMAL PRECIP IS EXPECTED BEFORE FROM 12Z THU TO 12Z FRI AS THE RIDGE WILL BE MOVING OVERHEAD AND THE CWA WILL BE BETWEEN THE AREAS OF FORCING. THE ONLY PLACE WHERE SOME VERY MINOR RAIN MAY FALL IS OVER ERN UPPER MI IF ANY SHORTWAVE ENERGY CAN ROTATE AROUND THE GREAT LAKES LOW. THE NRN PLAINS LOW WILL SHIFT ACROSS UPPER MI ON FRI INTO FRI EVENING. MODELS AGREE WELL ON THIS OCCURRING...BUT DO VARY SLIGHTLY ON TIMING WITH THE 12Z/14 ECMWF BEING FASTER...THE 00Z/15 NAM BEING SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF BY ABOUT 6 HOURS AND THE 00Z/15 GFS BETWEEN THE TWO. 850MB TEMPS FALL FROM A MAX OF AROUND 10C AT 00Z FRI TO 3-4C AT 18Z FRI AND THEN TO AROUND -2C OVER NWRN UPPER MI BEHIND THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT BY 00Z SAT /WITH THE MEAN TIMING BETWEEN THE MODELS/. THE COMBINATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND UPSLOPE FLOW THAT BECOMES INCREASINGLY LAKE ENHANCED EASILY JUSTIFIES LIKELY POPS FOR RAIN OVER NW PRECIP BELTS. EXPECT SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. CAA CONTINUES FRI NIGHT WITH 850MB TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND -5C BY 12Z SAT...ALTHOUGH THE NAM IS SLOWER AND THEREFORE WARMER. WINDS TURN MORE N-NNW FRI NIGHT...SO THE LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED AREAS SHIFT SLIGHTLY FROM FRI EVENING. FRI NIGHT...PRECIP SHOULD TURN TO ALL SNOW OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NCENTRAL AND WRN UPPER MI...MEANING THE FIRST MEASURABLE SNOWFALL FOR THE SEASON WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. ELSEWHERE...A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH NO ACCUMULATIONS. EVEN THE LARGER SCALE ECMWF AND GLOBAL GEM SHOW UP TO 0.2 INCHES OF QPF BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z SAT...SO EXPECT MORE IN THE FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS...ESPECIALLY IF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH AS IS HINTED AT BY GUIDANCE. WHILE IT IS STILL PRETTY FAR OUT TO BE TALKING ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS...AN OR MAYBE TWO OF SNOW IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION LATE FRI NIGHT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...MAINLY ON GRASSY OR ELEVATED SURFACES. SATURDAY IS THE TRICKIER FORECAST SINCE UPPER LEVEL FORCING IS OUT OF THE AREA...MODELS VARY ON HOW COLD THE AIRMASS WILL BE AND DRY AIR WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE NW. THE ECMWF SHOWS 850MB TEMPS GENERALLY WARMING THROUGH THE DAY TO A RANGE OF 0C W TO -4C E. THE GFS IS COLDER IN SHOWING A SWATH OF -7C TO -8C 850MB TEMPS MOVING W TO E ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE DAY...ALTHOUGH THE PREVIOUS RUN DID NOT HAVE THIS. MODELS AGREE FAIRLY WELL ON MOISTURE...WITH 1000-700MB RH VALUES DROPPING BELOW 40 PERCENT OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR BY 18Z SAT...ALTHOUGH THE GFS DOES NOT MOVE THE DRY AIR E IN THE EVENING LIKE THE ECMWF DOES. THINK THE LES WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE W...WHILE PERSISTING MORE OVER THE E. ADDITIONAL SNOW IS EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE W AND NCENTRAL...BUT WITH DAYTIME HEATING NOT MUCH OF THAT SHOULD ACCUMULATE...ESPECIALLY ON THE ROADS. BY LATE SAT NIGHT...A SFC RIDGE WILL HAVE MOVED OVER THE WRN CWA AS MOISTURE DROPS OUT AND 850MB TEMPS INCREASE. THINK THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS...SO WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS SHIFT. FOR SUN THROUGH TUE...JUST USED CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE AS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN SHORTWAVE ENERGY MAY BRING SOME PRECIP LATE SUN INTO MON...WITH TUE LOOKING DRIER. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 121 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2014 WITH DRY AIR ACROSS WRN UPER MI...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT IWD AND CMX. HOWEVER...AT KCMX AND KIWD...THERE IS A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR LIFR CIGS TO REAPPEAR LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WED MORNING AS NOCTURNAL COOLING AND UPSLOPE FLOW MAY LEAD TO STRATUS FORMATION. WITH LOW CONFIDENCE...CONDITIONS WERE KEPT VFR...BUT KEPT SCT 200FT CLOUDS AT KIWD WHERE UPSLOPING IS MORE FAVORABLE. KSAW REMAINS IN THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER IL. SO...THE GREATER MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW INTO SAW SHOULD KEEP MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2014 NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES STARTS TO WEAKEN WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 20 KTS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE ON FRIDAY AND THEN MERGES WITH THE LOW OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WHILE STRENGTHENING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG N-NW WINDS TO DEVELOP FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN GALES OF 35-40 KTS FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KC LONG TERM...TITUS AVIATION...JLB MARINE...TITUS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
351 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2014 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 441 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A SHARP TROF CENTERED OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH A CLOSED LOW OVER IL. JET STREAK ACROSS NRN ONTARIO/QUEBEC THAT WAS ONE OF THE BIG DRIVERS FOR THE MDT TO HVY PCPN ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES LAST NIGHT IS SHIFTING E. HOWEVER...FCST AREA STILL REMAINS UNDER UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THE DEPARTING JET STREAK AND ALSO IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LEFT EXIT OF ANOTHER JET STREAK WITH A VERY SHARP ISOTACH GRADIENT ORIENTED FROM THE LWR OHIO VALLEY TO LAKE MI AND WRN LWR MI. PCPN MORE STRONGLY TIED TO THE LEFT EXIT OF THE LATTER JET STREAK HAS BEEN SURGING N UP LAKE MI TODAY AND IS NOW SPREADING INTO THE ERN FCST AREA. TONIGHT...COMBINATION OF RATHER STRONG DEEP LAYER FORCING PER QVECTORS AND LEFT EXIT OF THE WRN GREAT LAKES UPPER JET WHICH IS TRANSLATING SLIGHTLY EASTWARD WILL SUPPORT BEST CHC OF RAIN OVER THE ERN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA. SHRA COVERAGE WILL PROBABLY DIMINISH SOME EARLY THIS EVENING PER RADAR TRENDS...BUT EXPECT NEW DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR QUICKLY DURING THE EVENING GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF FORCING. GREATEST COVERAGE SHOULD BE OVERNIGHT WHEN ANOTHER PUSH OF MOISTURE ADVECTION ALSO OCCURS IN THE 850-700MB LAYER. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SOME LOCALLY MDT TO HVY PCPN. TO THE W...LOW-MID LEVEL DRYING OCCURRING THIS AFTN WILL HOLD TONIGHT...SO DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THERE. MORE CHALLENGING PART OF THE FCST IS ACROSS THE CNTRL WHERE DELINEATION BTWN DRY AND RAIN WILL OCCUR...SO A FAIRLY TIGHT POP GRADIENT WILL BE PAINTED ACROSS MAINLY DICKINSON AND MARQUETTE COUNTIES. ON ANOTHER NOTE...THE STRONGEST WINDS ON LAKE SUPERIOR HAVE OCCURRED CLOSER TO THE UPPER MICHIGAN SHORE TODAY...LIMITING WAVE HEIGHTS OVER WHAT THEY COULD BE IF THE STRONGER WINDS COVERED MORE OF THE OPEN WATER. EVEN SO...CONTINUED STEADY WINDS WITH SOME EXPANSION OF HIGHER SPEEDS OVER THE OPEN WATERS MAY PUSH WAVES UP SOME TONIGHT...LEADING TO MINOR BEACH EROSION ALONG THE SHORES OF MARQUETTE AND ALGER COUNTIES INTO WED. ON WED...QVECTOR DIVERGENCE AND UPPER JET GRADUALLY SHIFT E THOUGH SOME WEAK FORCING DOES LINGER OVER THE E. WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS IN THE MORNING OVER THE E WITH ONLY LOW CHC POPS LINGERING IN THE AFTN. THE W WILL REMAIN DRY. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2014 THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE SRN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL MOVE OVER OH BY 12Z THU AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NRN PLAINS. BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS WILL BE THE RIDGE OVER THE NWRN CWA. BY 12Z FRI...MODELS SHOW THE GREAT LAKES LOW HAVING MOVED TO THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER E OF LAKE SUPERIOR WHILE MERGING WITH THE SYSTEM COMING OUT OF THE NRN PLAINS...WHICH WILL HAVE STRENGTHENED INTO A CLOSED LOW AND WILL MOVE OVER OR NEAR THE MN ARROWHEAD. THE SFC COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NRN PLAINS LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WRN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z FRI...BUT BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LAGS THE FRONT BY AROUND 6 HOURS. AS A RESULT...MINIMAL PRECIP IS EXPECTED BEFORE FROM 12Z THU TO 12Z FRI AS THE RIDGE WILL BE MOVING OVERHEAD AND THE CWA WILL BE BETWEEN THE AREAS OF FORCING. THE ONLY PLACE WHERE SOME VERY MINOR RAIN MAY FALL IS OVER ERN UPPER MI IF ANY SHORTWAVE ENERGY CAN ROTATE AROUND THE GREAT LAKES LOW. THE NRN PLAINS LOW WILL SHIFT ACROSS UPPER MI ON FRI INTO FRI EVENING. MODELS AGREE WELL ON THIS OCCURRING...BUT DO VARY SLIGHTLY ON TIMING WITH THE 12Z/14 ECMWF BEING FASTER...THE 00Z/15 NAM BEING SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF BY ABOUT 6 HOURS AND THE 00Z/15 GFS BETWEEN THE TWO. 850MB TEMPS FALL FROM A MAX OF AROUND 10C AT 00Z FRI TO 3-4C AT 18Z FRI AND THEN TO AROUND -2C OVER NWRN UPPER MI BEHIND THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT BY 00Z SAT /WITH THE MEAN TIMING BETWEEN THE MODELS/. THE COMBINATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND UPSLOPE FLOW THAT BECOMES INCREASINGLY LAKE ENHANCED EASILY JUSTIFIES LIKELY POPS FOR RAIN OVER NW PRECIP BELTS. EXPECT SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. CAA CONTINUES FRI NIGHT WITH 850MB TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND -5C BY 12Z SAT...ALTHOUGH THE NAM IS SLOWER AND THEREFORE WARMER. WINDS TURN MORE N-NNW FRI NIGHT...SO THE LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED AREAS SHIFT SLIGHTLY FROM FRI EVENING. FRI NIGHT...PRECIP SHOULD TURN TO ALL SNOW OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NCENTRAL AND WRN UPPER MI...MEANING THE FIRST MEASURABLE SNOWFALL FOR THE SEASON WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. ELSEWHERE...A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH NO ACCUMULATIONS. EVEN THE LARGER SCALE ECMWF AND GLOBAL GEM SHOW UP TO 0.2 INCHES OF QPF BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z SAT...SO EXPECT MORE IN THE FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS...ESPECIALLY IF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH AS IS HINTED AT BY GUIDANCE. WHILE IT IS STILL PRETTY FAR OUT TO BE TALKING ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS...AN OR MAYBE TWO OF SNOW IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION LATE FRI NIGHT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...MAINLY ON GRASSY OR ELEVATED SURFACES. SATURDAY IS THE TRICKIER FORECAST SINCE UPPER LEVEL FORCING IS OUT OF THE AREA...MODELS VARY ON HOW COLD THE AIRMASS WILL BE AND DRY AIR WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE NW. THE ECMWF SHOWS 850MB TEMPS GENERALLY WARMING THROUGH THE DAY TO A RANGE OF 0C W TO -4C E. THE GFS IS COLDER IN SHOWING A SWATH OF -7C TO -8C 850MB TEMPS MOVING W TO E ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE DAY...ALTHOUGH THE PREVIOUS RUN DID NOT HAVE THIS. MODELS AGREE FAIRLY WELL ON MOISTURE...WITH 1000-700MB RH VALUES DROPPING BELOW 40 PERCENT OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR BY 18Z SAT...ALTHOUGH THE GFS DOES NOT MOVE THE DRY AIR E IN THE EVENING LIKE THE ECMWF DOES. THINK THE LES WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE W...WHILE PERSISTING MORE OVER THE E. ADDITIONAL SNOW IS EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE W AND NCENTRAL...BUT WITH DAYTIME HEATING NOT MUCH OF THAT SHOULD ACCUMULATE...ESPECIALLY ON THE ROADS. BY LATE SAT NIGHT...A SFC RIDGE WILL HAVE MOVED OVER THE WRN CWA AS MOISTURE DROPS OUT AND 850MB TEMPS INCREASE. THINK THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS...SO WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS SHIFT. FOR SUN THROUGH TUE...JUST USED CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE AS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN SHORTWAVE ENERGY MAY BRING SOME PRECIP LATE SUN INTO MON...WITH TUE LOOKING DRIER. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 121 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2014 WITH DRY AIR ACROSS WRN UPER MI...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT IWD AND CMX. HOWEVER...AT KCMX AND KIWD...THERE IS A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR LIFR CIGS TO REAPPEAR LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WED MORNING AS NOCTURNAL COOLING AND UPSLOPE FLOW MAY LEAD TO STRATUS FORMATION. WITH LOW CONFIDENCE...CONDITIONS WERE KEPT VFR...BUT KEPT SCT 200FT CLOUDS AT KIWD WHERE UPSLOPING IS MORE FAVORABLE. KSAW REMAINS IN THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER IL. SO...THE GREATER MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW INTO SAW SHOULD KEEP MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2014 NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES STARTS TO WEAKEN WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 20 KTS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE ON FRIDAY AND THEN MERGES WITH THE LOW OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WHILE STRENGTHENING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG N-NW WINDS TO DEVELOP FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN GALES OF 35-40 KTS FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...ROLFSON LONG TERM...TITUS AVIATION...JLB MARINE...TITUS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
128 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2014 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 441 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A SHARP TROF CENTERED OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH A CLOSED LOW OVER IL. JET STREAK ACROSS NRN ONTARIO/QUEBEC THAT WAS ONE OF THE BIG DRIVERS FOR THE MDT TO HVY PCPN ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES LAST NIGHT IS SHIFTING E. HOWEVER...FCST AREA STILL REMAINS UNDER UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THE DEPARTING JET STREAK AND ALSO IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LEFT EXIT OF ANOTHER JET STREAK WITH A VERY SHARP ISOTACH GRADIENT ORIENTED FROM THE LWR OHIO VALLEY TO LAKE MI AND WRN LWR MI. PCPN MORE STRONGLY TIED TO THE LEFT EXIT OF THE LATTER JET STREAK HAS BEEN SURGING N UP LAKE MI TODAY AND IS NOW SPREADING INTO THE ERN FCST AREA. TONIGHT...COMBINATION OF RATHER STRONG DEEP LAYER FORCING PER QVECTORS AND LEFT EXIT OF THE WRN GREAT LAKES UPPER JET WHICH IS TRANSLATING SLIGHTLY EASTWARD WILL SUPPORT BEST CHC OF RAIN OVER THE ERN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA. SHRA COVERAGE WILL PROBABLY DIMINISH SOME EARLY THIS EVENING PER RADAR TRENDS...BUT EXPECT NEW DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR QUICKLY DURING THE EVENING GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF FORCING. GREATEST COVERAGE SHOULD BE OVERNIGHT WHEN ANOTHER PUSH OF MOISTURE ADVECTION ALSO OCCURS IN THE 850-700MB LAYER. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SOME LOCALLY MDT TO HVY PCPN. TO THE W...LOW-MID LEVEL DRYING OCCURRING THIS AFTN WILL HOLD TONIGHT...SO DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THERE. MORE CHALLENGING PART OF THE FCST IS ACROSS THE CNTRL WHERE DELINEATION BTWN DRY AND RAIN WILL OCCUR...SO A FAIRLY TIGHT POP GRADIENT WILL BE PAINTED ACROSS MAINLY DICKINSON AND MARQUETTE COUNTIES. ON ANOTHER NOTE...THE STRONGEST WINDS ON LAKE SUPERIOR HAVE OCCURRED CLOSER TO THE UPPER MICHIGAN SHORE TODAY...LIMITING WAVE HEIGHTS OVER WHAT THEY COULD BE IF THE STRONGER WINDS COVERED MORE OF THE OPEN WATER. EVEN SO...CONTINUED STEADY WINDS WITH SOME EXPANSION OF HIGHER SPEEDS OVER THE OPEN WATERS MAY PUSH WAVES UP SOME TONIGHT...LEADING TO MINOR BEACH EROSION ALONG THE SHORES OF MARQUETTE AND ALGER COUNTIES INTO WED. ON WED...QVECTOR DIVERGENCE AND UPPER JET GRADUALLY SHIFT E THOUGH SOME WEAK FORCING DOES LINGER OVER THE E. WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS IN THE MORNING OVER THE E WITH ONLY LOW CHC POPS LINGERING IN THE AFTN. THE W WILL REMAIN DRY. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014 THE FORECAST FOR LATE THIS WEEK REMAINS COMPLICATED AS THE UPPER LOW PERSISTS OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THURSDAY...LEADING TO THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA UNDER CONTINUED CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...WHILE THE WESTERN AREA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK RIDGING. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE EAST UNDER GENERALLY CLOUDY SKIES WED NIGHT INTO THU...WHILE THE WEST MAY END UP WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. HOWEVER...EVEN WITH THE EAST SEEING RAIN CHANCES...THIS AREA WILL BE QUITE FAR REMOVED FROM THE UPPER LOW ITSELF AND ANY RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE SCATTERED AT BEST...NOT ANYTHING LIKE AN ALL DAY RAIN LIKE THE EAST HAS SEEN TODAY. FINALLY...BY FRIDAY...AN UPPER DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER MS VLY AND MERGE WITH THE GREAT LAKES UPPER LOW. THIS WILL ALLOW THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH AND ALSO ALLOW FOR MOISTURE TO WRAP AROUND THE MEAN UPPER LOW AS IT MOVES TO HUDSON BAY. AS SUCH...ALONG AND BEHIND THE SFC AND UPPER TOUGH THERE WILL BE BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN. IN FACT...THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH SHOW UP TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN FOR THE WEST FRI AFTN/EVENING. THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE COLDER 850MB TEMPS DROPPING IN TO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT AS WELL AS CYCLONIC UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE WESTERN UPPER PENINSULA. AS SUCH...WILL RAISE POPS TO HIGH CHC OR LIKELY ACROSS THE WEST. WITH THE CYCLONIC FLOW AND INDICATIONS FROM THE 12Z ECMWF THAT AN ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT...WILL MAINTAIN HIGHER POPS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR DUE TO LAKE ENHANCED PCPN. IN FACT...IF THE COLDER ECMWF VERIFIES WITH 1000-850MB THICKNESS VALUES BELOW 1300M...THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF MARQUETTE WILL LIKELY SEE THEIR FIRST MEASURABLE SNOWFALL OF THE YEAR FRI NIGHT. AS SUCH...WILL ALSO MENTION SNOW A LITTLE MORE ON FRI NIGHT IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF MARQUETTE. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...EXPECT LAKE EFFECT PCPN TO GRADUALLY END SATURDAY/SAT EVENING AS THE LOW MOVES OUT AND HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE BUILDS IN. WILL MAINTAIN HIGH POPS ACROSS THE KEWEENAW AND THE EAST DUE TO THE NW PBL FLOW AND 850MB TEMPS -2C TO -5C. RIDGING BUILDS IN BRIEFLY ON SUNDAY...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A QUIET AND WARMER DAY. HOWEVER...THE NWP START TO DISAGREE ON MON REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE NEXT TOUGH DIVING DOWN INTO THE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE SUPPRESSED THAN THE ECMWF...WITH THE GFS GENERALLY DRY FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE THE ECWMF SHOWS AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE FOR RAIN WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH. FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FCST BUT IT POSSIBLE THAT POPS WILL NEED TO BE INTRODUCED AT SOME POINT FOR MON. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 121 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2014 WITH DRY AIR ACROSS WRN UPER MI...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT IWD AND CMX. HOWEVER...AT KCMX AND KIWD...THERE IS A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR LIFR CIGS TO REAPPEAR LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WED MORNING AS NOCTURNAL COOLING AND UPSLOPE FLOW MAY LEAD TO STRATUS FORMATION. WITH LOW CONFIDENCE...CONDITIONS WERE KEPT VFR...BUT KEPT SCT 200FT CLOUDS AT KIWD WHERE UPSLOPING IS MORE FAVORABLE. KSAW REMAINS IN THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER IL. SO...THE GREATER MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW INTO SAW SHOULD KEEP MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014 NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 20-30 KT TONIGHT ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REMAINS STATIONARY. THE LOW STARTS TO WEAKEN ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO WEAKEN DURING THE DAY AND REMAIN BELOW 20 KT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE ON FRIDAY AND THEN MERGES WITH THE LOW OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WHILE STRENGTHENING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR N-NW WINDS TO DEVELOP FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WINDS COULD INCREASE TO NEAR GALE FORCE SAT BEFORE DIMINISHING SUNDAY. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...ROLFSON LONG TERM...MRD AVIATION...JLB MARINE...MRD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
619 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2014 TEMPERATURES WILL PROVIDE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES INTO THE MID PART OF NEXT WEEK. THERE IS SOME CHANCE OF PCPN BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AN IMPRESSIVE 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS NOTED OVER THE DAKOTAS WITH 12 HR HEIGHT FALLS OF ABOUT 150 METERS OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. LATEST RUC INITIALIZATION IN COMBINATION WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED THE CENTER OF THE CIRCULATION WAS OVER NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE NOTED JUST AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. 850 MB CHART FROM 12Z THIS MORNING SHOWED A THERMAL RIDGE FROM WEST TEXAS UP INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. THIS HAS ALREADY BEEN SHIFTING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA AS OF MID AFTERNOON. FAIRLY DEEP MIXING ALONG/BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA HELPED PUSH TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE 70S...BUT COOLING WAS ALREADY TAKING PLACE IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. MODEST LOW LEVEL GRADIENT TONIGHT MAY HELP KEEP WINDS UP...SO RAISED THEM A BIT COMPARED TO LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. THE AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS CURRENTLY OFF TO OUR NORTH MAY MOVE INTO OUR NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING (MOSTLY NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM ALBION TO FREMONT AND RED OAK). OTHERWISE...WE LOOK FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES (COMPARED TO TODAY) FOR BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS BUILDS INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT SO KEPT LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER AND MID 30S (AT OR BELOW MOS GUIDANCE). SURFACE WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE LATER SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING...THEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST. GOOD MIXING WITH THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH HIGHS INTO THE 60S MOST AREAS WITH SOME HIGHS AROUND 70 WESTERN ZONES. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2014 THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY AT THE BEGINNING BUT MAY TURN WET BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY. LATEST MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...WITH A 500 MB RIDGE FROM WYOMING UP INTO ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN. A CLOSED LOW WILL BE NEAR THE ARIZONA/CALIFORNIA/MEXICO BORDER REGION AND A TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM ALASKA DOWN TO NEAR 30 N 135 W. SOME ENERGY WILL MOVE EAST OUT OF THAT TROUGH IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND BE OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION BY WEDNESDAY. THIS LOOKS LIKE IT WILL PROVIDE OUT NEXT GOOD CHANCE FOR PCPN. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS ARE NOT IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT BY THAT TIME (GFS IS WET FOR OUR AREA WHILE THE ECMWF HOLDS THE PCPN MAINLY TO OUR WEST)... THE GENERAL PATTERN SUGGESTS LOW CHANCE CATEGORY POPS ARE NEEDED FOR NOW. HIGHS FROM MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY 60S TO LOWER 790S WITH LOWS IN THE 40S OR UPPER 30S. && .AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2014 A REINFORCING FRONT IN SD WILL PUSH ACROSS ERN NEBRASKA LATE TONIGHT AND BRING AN INCREASE IN SFC WINDS WHICH WERE DECREASING AT INITIAL ISSUANCE. STRATOCUMULUS NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL MAKE IT INTO NERN NEBR LATER THIS EVENING AND COULD BRING CIGS TO KOFK...BUT INITIALLY THEY ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE FL030. HOWEVER...EITHER LATE TONIGHT OR FRIDAY MORNING A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY MOVE ACROSS KOFK AND KOMA AND POSSIBLY EVEN KLNK. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE CIGS AT KOMA AND KOFK COULD LINGER AT LEAST INTO MID AFTN. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...MILLER LONG TERM...MILLER AVIATION...CHERMOK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1258 PM CDT WED OCT 15 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT WED OCT 15 2014 LOW PRESSURE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTN. THIS WOULD DIRECT THE WARMEST AIR ACROSS NWRN NEB WHERE HIGHS COULD REACH MID 80S IN A FEW SPOTS. VERTICAL MIXING IS THE ONLY LIMITING FACTOR FOR HIGHS TODAY AS H7 TEMPERATURES RISE TOWARD 14C ACROSS SWRN NEB. IN SUMMER MONTHS...HIGHS NEAR OR ABOVE 100F WOULD OCCUR BUT THE MODELS SHOW SOUTH WINDS TO 800MB WHICH SHOULD LIMIT MIXING AND KEEP HIGHS IN THE 80S. 70S ARE EXPECTED EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. THE FORECAST USES A SLIGHTLY DEEPER MIXING PROFILE THAN SHOWN BY THE NAM AND GFS WHICH PRODUCES HIGHS CLOSE TO WHAT IS SHOWN BY THE MET...ECS AND MAV GUIDANCE. SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 35 MPH ACROSS THE NORTH. TONIGHT...THE THERMAL RIDGE MOVES DIRECTLY OVER THE FCST AREA FOLLOWED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT. LOWS IN THE 40S ARE EXPECTED. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT WED OCT 15 2014 OVERALL LONG TERM PATTERN IS DOMINATED BY RIDGING AND WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA EARLY IN THE DAY ON THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL STILL WARM ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. SOME MARGINAL PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THE FROPA AND LIKELY TO SEE AN INCREASE OF HIGH CLOUDS. WILL ALSO HAVE AN INCREASE OF NW WINDS...WHILE BREEZY...NOT EXPECTING ADVISORY CRITERIA. FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND THE RIDGE REDEVELOPS ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL...THEN A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED. BY THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK THE RIDGE WILL DRIFT EASTWARD AND HIGHS SOAR IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...MAYBE WARMER. THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S...EXCEPT FOR LOCALLY FAVORED COOL SPOTS WHICH WILL OCCASIONALLY DIP TO NEAR FREEZING. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT WED OCT 15 2014 HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND LOWER PRESSURE TO THE WEST...WILL RESULT IN SOUTH WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KTS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD A VEIL OF HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. && .FIRE WEATHER... ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT WED OCT 15 2014 FIRE DANGER COULD APPROACH CRITICAL LEVELS THIS AFTN ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 61. THE FCST USES 50 PERCENT OF THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS PLUS GUIDANCE AND 50 PERCENT OF THE RAP AND HRRR SOLNS WHICH WERE THE DRIEST MODEL SOLNS. AS MENTIONED...SOUTH WINDS MOVING NORTH UP THE CNTL HIGH PLAINS ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP DEW POINTS IN THE 30S VS THE CLASSIC DOWNSLOPE OFF THE ROCKIES WHICH IS NOT SHOWN BY ANY OF THE MODELS. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...CDC LONG TERM...MASEK AVIATION...TAYLOR FIRE WEATHER...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
614 AM CDT WED OCT 15 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT WED OCT 15 2014 LOW PRESSURE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTN. THIS WOULD DIRECT THE WARMEST AIR ACROSS NWRN NEB WHERE HIGHS COULD REACH MID 80S IN A FEW SPOTS. VERTICAL MIXING IS THE ONLY LIMITING FACTOR FOR HIGHS TODAY AS H7 TEMPERATURES RISE TOWARD 14C ACROSS SWRN NEB. IN SUMMER MONTHS...HIGHS NEAR OR ABOVE 100F WOULD OCCUR BUT THE MODELS SHOW SOUTH WINDS TO 800MB WHICH SHOULD LIMIT MIXING AND KEEP HIGHS IN THE 80S. 70S ARE EXPECTED EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. THE FORECAST USES A SLIGHTLY DEEPER MIXING PROFILE THAN SHOWN BY THE NAM AND GFS WHICH PRODUCES HIGHS CLOSE TO WHAT IS SHOWN BY THE MET...ECS AND MAV GUIDANCE. SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 35 MPH ACROSS THE NORTH. TONIGHT...THE THERMAL RIDGE MOVES DIRECTLY OVER THE FCST AREA FOLLOWED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT. LOWS IN THE 40S ARE EXPECTED. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT WED OCT 15 2014 OVERALL LONG TERM PATTERN IS DOMINATED BY RIDGING AND WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA EARLY IN THE DAY ON THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL STILL WARM ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. SOME MARGINAL PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THE FROPA AND LIKELY TO SEE AN INCREASE OF HIGH CLOUDS. WILL ALSO HAVE AN INCREASE OF NW WINDS...WHILE BREEZY...NOT EXPECTING ADVISORY CRITERIA. FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND THE RIDGE REDEVELOPS ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL...THEN A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED. BY THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK THE RIDGE WILL DRIFT EASTWARD AND HIGHS SOAR IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...MAYBE WARMER. THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S...EXCEPT FOR LOCALLY FAVORED COOL SPOTS WHICH WILL OCCASIONALLY DIP TO NEAR FREEZING. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 613 AM CDT WED OCT 15 2014 VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS TODAY AND TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS TODAY AND TONIGHT AND SEND A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FCST AREA LATE TONIGHT. && .FIRE WEATHER... ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT WED OCT 15 2014 FIRE DANGER COULD APPROACH CRITICAL LEVELS THIS AFTN ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 61. THE FCST USES 50 PERCENT OF THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS PLUS GUIDANCE AND 50 PERCENT OF THE RAP AND HRRR SOLNS WHICH WERE THE DRIEST MODEL SOLNS. AS MENTIONED...SOUTH WINDS MOVING NORTH UP THE CNTL HIGH PLAINS ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP DEW POINTS IN THE 30S VS THE CLASSIC DOWNSLOPE OFF THE ROCKIES WHICH IS NOT SHOWN BY ANY OF THE MODELS. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...CDC LONG TERM...MASEK AVIATION...CDC FIRE WEATHER...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
344 AM CDT WED OCT 15 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT WED OCT 15 2014 LOW PRESSURE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTN. THIS WOULD DIRECT THE WARMEST AIR ACROSS NWRN NEB WHERE HIGHS COULD REACH MID 80S IN A FEW SPOTS. VERTICAL MIXING IS THE ONLY LIMITING FACTOR FOR HIGHS TODAY AS H7 TEMPERATURES RISE TOWARD 14C ACROSS SWRN NEB. IN SUMMER MONTHS...HIGHS NEAR OR ABOVE 100F WOULD OCCUR BUT THE MODELS SHOW SOUTH WINDS TO 800MB WHICH SHOULD LIMIT MIXING AND KEEP HIGHS IN THE 80S. 70S ARE EXPECTED EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. THE FORECAST USES A SLIGHTLY DEEPER MIXING PROFILE THAN SHOWN BY THE NAM AND GFS WHICH PRODUCES HIGHS CLOSE TO WHAT IS SHOWN BY THE MET...ECS AND MAV GUIDANCE. SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 35 MPH ACROSS THE NORTH. TONIGHT...THE THERMAL RIDGE MOVES DIRECTLY OVER THE FCST AREA FOLLOWED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT. LOWS IN THE 40S ARE EXPECTED. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT WED OCT 15 2014 OVERALL LONG TERM PATTERN IS DOMINATED BY RIDGING AND WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA EARLY IN THE DAY ON THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL STILL WARM ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. SOME MARGINAL PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THE FROPA AND LIKELY TO SEE AN INCREASE OF HIGH CLOUDS. WILL ALSO HAVE AN INCREASE OF NW WINDS...WHILE BREEZY...NOT EXPECTING ADVISORY CRITERIA. FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND THE RIDGE REDEVELOPS ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL...THEN A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED. BY THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK THE RIDGE WILL DRIFT EASTWARD AND HIGHS SOAR IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...MAYBE WARMER. THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S...EXCEPT FOR LOCALLY FAVORED COOL SPOTS WHICH WILL OCCASIONALLY DIP TO NEAR FREEZING. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1256 AM CDT WED OCT 15 2014 AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST OF THE GREAT PLAINS WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE SOUTH ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS DURING THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE SETS UP WEST OF THE AREA WILL STRENGTHEN THE WINDS DURING THE DAY. ALONG WITH THIS...BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING TO AROUND 2K FEET AGL WILL PROMOTE WIND GUSTS UP TO 25KTS WITH THE STRONGER WIND GUSTS UP OVER THE PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA. THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...THINKING THE GUSTS WILL SUBSIDE BUT SUSTAINED WINDS WILL STAY ABOVE 12KTS THROUGH 06Z. CLOUD WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL BE HIGH CIRRUS SO VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. && .FIRE WEATHER... ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT WED OCT 15 2014 FIRE DANGER COULD APPROACH CRITICAL LEVELS THIS AFTN ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 61. THE FCST USES 50 PERCENT OF THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS PLUS GUIDANCE AND 50 PERCENT OF THE RAP AND HRRR SOLNS WHICH WERE THE DRIEST MODEL SOLNS. AS MENTIONED...SOUTH WINDS MOVING NORTH UP THE CNTL HIGH PLAINS ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP DEW POINTS IN THE 30S VS THE CLASSIC DOWNSLOPE OFF THE ROCKIES WHICH IS NOT SHOWN BY ANY OF THE MODELS. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...CDC LONG TERM...MASEK AVIATION...CDC FIRE WEATHER...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
916 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 916 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2014 FRESHENED UP FORECAST PRECIPITATION GRIDS BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND MODEL DATA. PRECIP HAS ALREADY SHOWN SIGNS OF DECREASING AND BELIEVE THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS THE PRECIP AREA SHIFTS EAST. STILL EXPECTING RATHER GUSTY WINDS TONIGHT. UPDATE ISSUED AT 657 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2014 UPDATED FORECAST PRIMARILY FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES. AN AREA OF RAIN HAS BEEN MOVING SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MN. RAIN HAS BEEN MEASURING ON THE LIGHT SIDE...UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH IN MOST LOCATIONS SO FAR. EXPECT RAIN TO DECREASE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND SHIFT EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MN... WHILE WINDS INCREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. EXPECT GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO PEAK AROUND MIDNIGHT IN MOST AREAS...BUT REMAINING RATHER WINDY INTO TOMORROW. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2014 SHOWER CHANCES AND WIND POTENTIAL THIS EVENING/TONIGHT WILL BE THE MAIN CHALLENGES. 12Z MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT. A SECONDARY PUSH OF COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM CANADA THIS EVENING...WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW TO 925MB (WITH 925MB WIND SPEEDS @40-45 KNOTS)...AND MIXING UP TO 850MB...ALONG WITH A SFC PRESSURE RISE 4-5MB/3-HR (ACROSS NE ND AND NW MN). THIS WILL MOSTLY OCCUR AFTER SUNSET AND WITH CLOUD COVER...SO MIXING POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO WILL BE BRIEF WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS WITH THE INITIAL PUSH OF COLD AIR ADVECTION...WITH NEAR ADVISORY CONDITIONS A MAJORITY OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOPWRF INDICATES A LOW PROBABILITY (30%) FOR ADVISORY WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN VALLEY...WHICH WOULD TEND TO AGREE WITH THE EXPECTED SCENARIO. A BAND OF PERSISTENT SHOWERS JUST NORTH OF THE UPPER LOW HAS PRODUCED 0.20-0.40 INCHES OF RAINFALL ACROSS A PORTION OF THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN. LATEST HRRR INDICATES THIS BAND WILL SLOWLY PIVOT SOUTH/SOUTHEAST...AND DISSIPATE. RADAR INDICATES THAT THIS IS BEGINNING TO OCCUR...AND WILL ADJUST POPS/WX TOWARD THIS SOLUTION. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT...SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT NOT SURE WHEN AND WHERE (HRRR/RAP INDICATES MORE ISOLATED/SCATTERED COVERAGE). IF A PERSISTENT BAND OF SHOWERS AGAIN DEVELOPS...WILL ADJUST POPS UPWARD. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. COLDER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED...WITH BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2014 SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SHORTWAVE WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS CANADA ON SATURDAY AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS ON SATURDAY...WITH A WIND SHIFT AND BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURE SHOULD BE WARMER EACH DAY (STRONGEST COLD AIR ADVECTION NOT EXPECTED UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT). THE AIRMASS WILL BE RELATIVELY DRY...AND WITH THE STRONGEST FORCING TO THE NORTH SHOWER CHANCES ARE EXTREMELY LIMITED. SUNDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...SYNOPTIC MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT THIS PERIOD. DEPARTING UPPER WAVE...BUILDING HEIGHTS AND SURFACE HIGH BUILDING IN SPELL DECREASING WINDS. SURFACE HIGH TRANSITS CWFA...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MINIMAL MIXING TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY. RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY LEADING TO BREEZY SOUTH WINDS. BLOCKING LOW OVER EASTERN U.S. AND SPLIT FLOW LEAD TO SLOW MOVING UPPER AND SURFACE PATTERN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS BOTH DAYS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO AND ACROSS THE CWFA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WITH GFS/ECMWF TIMING SIMILAR. LEFT BLEND POPS ALONE DUE TO THE INHERENT UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT IN TIME. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 636 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2014 THE LATEST TAF ISSUANCE HIGHLIGHTS LOWERING CIGS AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST...RESULTING WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTHERLY ACROSS THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL PEAK AROUND MIDNIGHT IN MOST AREAS. CIGS UPSTREAM IN SOUTHWESTERN MB ARE IN THE 015-020 RANGE. HAVE LOWERED CIG FORECASTS FOR MOST TAF SITES BASED ON LATEST NAM MODEL AND OBS. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN SEEN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. BELIEVE THIS ACTIVITY WILL DWINDLE BASED ON THE SREFS MOST UNSTABLE CAPE FORECAST. THE LAST FEW STRIKES HAVE BEEN JUST NORTH OF PEMBINA IN MB AND NEAR WARROAD. BELIEVE GFK/TVF/BJI WOULD BE THE CLOSEST TAFS TO ANY THUNDER THREAT. WILL MONITOR AND UPDATE IF CONDITIONS CHANGE. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...KNUTSVIG SHORT TERM...TG LONG TERM...EWENS/TG AVIATION...KNUTSVIG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
657 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 657 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2014 UPDATED FORECAST PRIMARILY FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES. AN AREA OF RAIN HAS BEEN MOVING SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MN. RAIN HAS BEEN MEASURING ON THE LIGHT SIDE...UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH IN MOST LOCATIONS SO FAR. EXPECT RAIN TO DECREASE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND SHIFT EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MN... WHILE WINDS INCREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. EXPECT GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO PEAK AROUND MIDNIGHT IN MOST AREAS...BUT REMAINING RATHER WINDY INTO TOMORROW. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2014 SHOWER CHANCES AND WIND POTENTIAL THIS EVENING/TONIGHT WILL BE THE MAIN CHALLENGES. 12Z MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT. A SECONDARY PUSH OF COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM CANADA THIS EVENING...WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW TO 925MB (WITH 925MB WIND SPEEDS @40-45 KNOTS)...AND MIXING UP TO 850MB...ALONG WITH A SFC PRESSURE RISE 4-5MB/3-HR (ACROSS NE ND AND NW MN). THIS WILL MOSTLY OCCUR AFTER SUNSET AND WITH CLOUD COVER...SO MIXING POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO WILL BE BRIEF WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS WITH THE INITIAL PUSH OF COLD AIR ADVECTION...WITH NEAR ADVISORY CONDITIONS A MAJORITY OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOPWRF INDICATES A LOW PROBABILITY (30%) FOR ADVISORY WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN VALLEY...WHICH WOULD TEND TO AGREE WITH THE EXPECTED SCENARIO. A BAND OF PERSISTENT SHOWERS JUST NORTH OF THE UPPER LOW HAS PRODUCED 0.20-0.40 INCHES OF RAINFALL ACROSS A PORTION OF THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN. LATEST HRRR INDICATES THIS BAND WILL SLOWLY PIVOT SOUTH/SOUTHEAST...AND DISSIPATE. RADAR INDICATES THAT THIS IS BEGINNING TO OCCUR...AND WILL ADJUST POPS/WX TOWARD THIS SOLUTION. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT...SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT NOT SURE WHEN AND WHERE (HRRR/RAP INDICATES MORE ISOLATED/SCATTERED COVERAGE). IF A PERSISTENT BAND OF SHOWERS AGAIN DEVELOPS...WILL ADJUST POPS UPWARD. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. COLDER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED...WITH BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2014 SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SHORTWAVE WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS CANADA ON SATURDAY AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS ON SATURDAY...WITH A WIND SHIFT AND BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURE SHOULD BE WARMER EACH DAY (STRONGEST COLD AIR ADVECTION NOT EXPECTED UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT). THE AIRMASS WILL BE RELATIVELY DRY...AND WITH THE STRONGEST FORCING TO THE NORTH SHOWER CHANCES ARE EXTREMELY LIMITED. SUNDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...SYNOPTIC MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT THIS PERIOD. DEPARTING UPPER WAVE...BUILDING HEIGHTS AND SURFACE HIGH BUILDING IN SPELL DECREASING WINDS. SURFACE HIGH TRANSITS CWFA...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MINIMAL MIXING TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY. RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY LEADING TO BREEZY SOUTH WINDS. BLOCKING LOW OVER EASTERN U.S. AND SPLIT FLOW LEAD TO SLOW MOVING UPPER AND SURFACE PATTERN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS BOTH DAYS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO AND ACROSS THE CWFA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WITH GFS/ECMWF TIMING SIMILAR. LEFT BLEND POPS ALONE DUE TO THE INHERENT UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT IN TIME. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 636 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2014 THE LATEST TAF ISSUANCE HIGHLIGHTS LOWERING CIGS AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST...RESULTING WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTHERLY ACROSS THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL PEAK AROUND MIDNIGHT IN MOST AREAS. CIGS UPSTREAM IN SOUTHWESTERN MB ARE IN THE 015-020 RANGE. HAVE LOWERED CIG FORECASTS FOR MOST TAF SITES BASED ON LATEST NAM MODEL AND OBS. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN SEEN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. BELIEVE THIS ACTIVITY WILL DWINDLE BASED ON THE SREFS MOST UNSTABLE CAPE FORECAST. THE LAST FEW STRIKES HAVE BEEN JUST NORTH OF PEMBINA IN MB AND NEAR WARROAD. BELIEVE GFK/TVF/BJI WOULD BE THE CLOSEST TAFS TO ANY THUNDER THREAT. WILL MONITOR AND UPDATE IF CONDITIONS CHANGE. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...KNUTSVIG SHORT TERM...TG LONG TERM...EWENS/TG AVIATION...KNUTSVIG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
636 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2014 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2014 SHOWER CHANCES AND WIND POTENTIAL THIS EVENING/TONIGHT WILL BE THE MAIN CHALLENGES. 12Z MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT. A SECONDARY PUSH OF COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM CANADA THIS EVENING...WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW TO 925MB (WITH 925MB WIND SPEEDS @40-45 KNOTS)...AND MIXING UP TO 850MB...ALONG WITH A SFC PRESSURE RISE 4-5MB/3-HR (ACROSS NE ND AND NW MN). THIS WILL MOSTLY OCCUR AFTER SUNSET AND WITH CLOUD COVER...SO MIXING POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO WILL BE BRIEF WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS WITH THE INITIAL PUSH OF COLD AIR ADVECTION...WITH NEAR ADVISORY CONDITIONS A MAJORITY OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOPWRF INDICATES A LOW PROBABILITY (30%) FOR ADVISORY WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN VALLEY...WHICH WOULD TEND TO AGREE WITH THE EXPECTED SCENARIO. A BAND OF PERSISTENT SHOWERS JUST NORTH OF THE UPPER LOW HAS PRODUCED 0.20-0.40 INCHES OF RAINFALL ACROSS A PORTION OF THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN. LATEST HRRR INDICATES THIS BAND WILL SLOWLY PIVOT SOUTH/SOUTHEAST...AND DISSIPATE. RADAR INDICATES THAT THIS IS BEGINNING TO OCCUR...AND WILL ADJUST POPS/WX TOWARD THIS SOLUTION. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT...SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT NOT SURE WHEN AND WHERE (HRRR/RAP INDICATES MORE ISOLATED/SCATTERED COVERAGE). IF A PERSISTENT BAND OF SHOWERS AGAIN DEVELOPS...WILL ADJUST POPS UPWARD. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. COLDER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED...WITH BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2014 SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SHORTWAVE WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS CANADA ON SATURDAY AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS ON SATURDAY...WITH A WIND SHIFT AND BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURE SHOULD BE WARMER EACH DAY (STRONGEST COLD AIR ADVECTION NOT EXPECTED UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT). THE AIRMASS WILL BE RELATIVELY DRY...AND WITH THE STRONGEST FORCING TO THE NORTH SHOWER CHANCES ARE EXTREMELY LIMITED. SUNDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...SYNOPTIC MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT THIS PERIOD. DEPARTING UPPER WAVE...BUILDING HEIGHTS AND SURFACE HIGH BUILDING IN SPELL DECREASING WINDS. SURFACE HIGH TRANSITS CWFA...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MINIMAL MIXING TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY. RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY LEADING TO BREEZY SOUTH WINDS. BLOCKING LOW OVER EASTERN U.S. AND SPLIT FLOW LEAD TO SLOW MOVING UPPER AND SURFACE PATTERN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS BOTH DAYS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO AND ACROSS THE CWFA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WITH GFS/ECMWF TIMING SIMILAR. LEFT BLEND POPS ALONE DUE TO THE INHERENT UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT IN TIME. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 636 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2014 THE LATEST TAF ISSUANCE HIGHLIGHTS LOWERING CIGS AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST...RESULTING WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTHERLY ACROSS THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL PEAK AROUND MIDNIGHT IN MOST AREAS. CIGS UPSTREAM IN SOUTHWESTERN MB ARE IN THE 015-020 RANGE. HAVE LOWERED CIG FORECASTS FOR MOST TAF SITES BASED ON LATEST NAM MODEL AND OBS. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN SEEN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. BELIEVE THIS ACTIVITY WILL DWINDLE BASED ON THE SREFS MOST UNSTABLE CAPE FORECAST. THE LAST FEW STRIKES HAVE BEEN JUST NORTH OF PEMBINA IN MB AND NEAR WARROAD. BELIEVE GFK/TVF/BJI WOULD BE THE CLOSEST TAFS TO ANY THUNDER THREAT. WILL MONITOR AND UPDATE IF CONDITIONS CHANGE. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...TG LONG TERM...EWENS/TG AVIATION...KNUTSVIG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
208 PM EDT WED OCT 15 2014 .SYNOPSIS... AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM LOWER MICHIGAN TO EASTERN ILLINOIS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT AND TO JAMES BAY BY FRIDAY NIGHT. A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL ROTATE AROUND THIS LOW AND ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL STAY OVER THE EASTERN LAKES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... ONLY MINOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS. PREVIOUS...THE MAIN PRECIP BAND CONTINUES TO MAKE SLOW NE PROGRESS OUT OF THE AREA. MOST OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE GONE BY 12Z ALTHOUGH SOME PRECIP COULD LINGER OVER NW PA MUCH OF THE MORNING. PRECIP TOTALS SO FAR HAVE BEEN MODEST WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING AROUND HALF AN INCH. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY SHOULD BE MARGINAL AND NOT ANTICIPATING ANY PROBLEMS. MOST OF THE AREA WILL ENJOY A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER TODAY. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE SREF AND HRRR SHOW SHOWERS REDEVELOPING AROUND MIDDAY. COVERAGE SHOULD BE NO MORE THAN SCATTERED. WILL TRY FOR A DRY MORNING ALL BUT THE EASTERN END OF THE AREA WITH 30ISH POPS THIS AFTERNOON. NO THUNDER EXPECTED TODAY. SOME CLEARING HAS OCCURRED OVER THE WESTERN END OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. EXPECT THESE CLEAR AREAS TO FILL BACK IN BY DAYBREAK. COULD SEE A FEW PEAKS OF SUNSHINE DURING THE DAY JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE BUT MOSTLY CLOUDY WILL BE THE FLAVOR OF THE DAY. HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPS. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... THE SURFACE LOW WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY BUT THE PESKY UPPER LOW WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT WILL SEE PROLONGED PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER FOLLOWED BY PERIODS OF SHOWERS AS INDIVIDUAL PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATE ACROSS THE AREA. TIMING THESE IMPULSES REMAINS A CHALLENGE AND UNFORTUNATELY WILL HAVE TO GO WITH SEVERAL PERIODS OF CHANCE POPS. AM HOPING BY EARLY FRIDAY THAT MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE EASTERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE AREA GIVEN THE EXPECTED LOCATION OF THE UPPER LOW. PRECIP CHANCES WILL RETURN TO THE ENTIRE AREA ON SATURDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH INTO THE AREA. BY THAT TIME THE SURFACE LOW WILL OVER JAMES BAY. DO NOT THINK THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE A WASHOUT BY ANY MEANS AND PERIODS OR GLIMPSES OF SUN ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. HAVE USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE TEMPS. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS PERIOD. THE MODELS START IN AGREEMENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDING INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY. SOME LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS WILL LINGER IN EXTREME NE OH AND NW PA SUNDAY IN THE COLD NORTHWEST FLOW AS THE LAKE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE WILL BE NEAR 19C. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS MOVE THE HIGH TO THE EAST QUICKER THEN THE GFS AND THIS ALLOWS A FRONT TO BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH A THREAT OF SHOWERS. CONTINUED THE PREVIOUS THINKING WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AND DECREASING CHANCE ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD IN QUICKLY BY LATE TUESDAY. FOR SUNDAY WENT COOLER FOR THE HIGHS WITH THE 850 MB TEMPERATURE AVERAGING AROUND ZERO. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... LOW PRESSURE OVER INDIANA WILL MOVE TO LAKE ONTARIO OVERNIGHT. IN THE MEANTIME...SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE MOVING NORTH AHEAD OF THE LOW. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHWEST OHIO EXPANDING INTO NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL OHIO. CEILINGS RANGE FROM MVFR TO VFR AND WILL LIKELY IMPROVE OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS AS THE ATMOSPERE BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONVECTIVE THIS AFTERNOON. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BACK INTO THE MVFR RANGE THIS EVENING AND IFR OVERNIGHT AS THE WEAK LOW MOVES OVERHEAD. VISIBILITIES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE MVFR/IFR RANGE 09-13Z. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT TO LIGHT WESTERLY INTO THURSDAY. .OUTLOOK...NON VFR AT TIMES THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY FRIDAY...THEN AGAIN ON SATURDAY. && .MARINE... THE WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE ON THE LAKE TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH THE UPPER LOW AND SURFACE LOW OVER OHIO. ON THURSDAY WITH THE LOWS TO THE EAST THE FLOW WILL BE NORTHWEST BUT NOT EXPECTING THE WINDS TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PROMPT THE NEED FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...HOWEVER...THE LAKE WILL BE CHOPPY. A FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE FRIDAY. THE SOUTHWEST WINDS COULD BE STRONG ENOUGH AHEAD OF THE FRONT FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR AN ADVISORY WILL BE BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS THREAT WILL LAST INTO SUNDAY ESPECIALLY ON THE EAST END OF THE LAKE. THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS ARE A QUESTION ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE MODELS ARE QUITE VARIABLE. IF THE GFS IS CORRECT WINDS WILL APPROACH GALE FORCE. ALL THE OTHER MODELS ARE NOT AS STRONG. AT THIS POINT WITH SOME QUESTIONS CONTINUED THE 15 TO 25 KNOT FORECAST. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KUBINA NEAR TERM...KUBINA/MULLEN SHORT TERM...KUBINA LONG TERM...KIELTYKA AVIATION...KEC MARINE...KIELTYKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
949 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2014 .SYNOPSIS... AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM LOWER MICHIGAN TO EASTERN ILLINOIS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT AND TO JAMES BAY BY FRIDAY NIGHT. A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL ROTATE AROUND THIS LOW AND ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL STAY OVER THE EASTERN LAKES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... ONLY MINOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS. PREVIOUS...THE MAIN PRECIP BAND CONTINUES TO MAKE SLOW NE PROGRESS OUT OF THE AREA. MOST OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE GONE BY 12Z ALTHOUGH SOME PRECIP COULD LINGER OVER NW PA MUCH OF THE MORNING. PRECIP TOTALS SO FAR HAVE BEEN MODEST WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING AROUND HALF AN INCH. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY SHOULD BE MARGINAL AND NOT ANTICIPATING ANY PROBLEMS. MOST OF THE AREA WILL ENJOY A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER TODAY. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE SREF AND HRRR SHOW SHOWERS REDEVELOPING AROUND MIDDAY. COVERAGE SHOULD BE NO MORE THAN SCATTERED. WILL TRY FOR A DRY MORNING ALL BUT THE EASTERN END OF THE AREA WITH 30ISH POPS THIS AFTERNOON. NO THUNDER EXPECTED TODAY. SOME CLEARING HAS OCCURRED OVER THE WESTERN END OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. EXPECT THESE CLEAR AREAS TO FILL BACK IN BY DAYBREAK. COULD SEE A FEW PEAKS OF SUNSHINE DURING THE DAY JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE BUT MOSTLY CLOUDY WILL BE THE FLAVOR OF THE DAY. HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPS. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... THE SURFACE LOW WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY BUT THE PESKY UPPER LOW WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT WILL SEE PROLONGED PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER FOLLOWED BY PERIODS OF SHOWERS AS INDIVIDUAL PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATE ACROSS THE AREA. TIMING THESE IMPULSES REMAINS A CHALLENGE AND UNFORTUNATELY WILL HAVE TO GO WITH SEVERAL PERIODS OF CHANCE POPS. AM HOPING BY EARLY FRIDAY THAT MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE EASTERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE AREA GIVEN THE EXPECTED LOCATION OF THE UPPER LOW. PRECIP CHANCES WILL RETURN TO THE ENTIRE AREA ON SATURDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH INTO THE AREA. BY THAT TIME THE SURFACE LOW WILL OVER JAMES BAY. DO NOT THINK THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE A WASHOUT BY ANY MEANS AND PERIODS OR GLIMPSES OF SUN ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. HAVE USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE TEMPS. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS PERIOD. THE MODELS START IN AGREEMENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDING INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY. SOME LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS WILL LINGER IN EXTREME NE OH AND NW PA SUNDAY IN THE COLD NORTHWEST FLOW AS THE LAKE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE WILL BE NEAR 19C. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS MOVE THE HIGH TO THE EAST QUICKER THEN THE GFS AND THIS ALLOWS A FRONT TO BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH A THREAT OF SHOWERS. CONTINUED THE PREVIOUS THINKING WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AND DECREASING CHANCE ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD IN QUICKLY BY LATE TUESDAY. FOR SUNDAY WENT COOLER FOR THE HIGHS WITH THE 850 MB TEMPERATURE AVERAGING AROUND ZERO. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE SHOWERS HAVE MOVED EAST. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ESPECIALLY OVER NE OH AND NW PA CAUSING SOME IFR CEILINGS...ELSEWHERE A MIX OF VFR TO MVFR. THE TREND WILL BE FOR ALL AREAS TO LIFT TO VFR CEILINGS DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS THE SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LOW MOVE TOWARDS OHIO SOME SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND LAST INTO THE EVENING. SOME SUNSHINE ON TOP OF THE CLOUDS WILL HELP. AT THIS TIME THEY SEEM LIKE THEY WILL BE MORE ON THE SCATTERED SIDE...SO JUST WENT WITH VCSH...SHOWERS VICINITY UNTIL IT IS CLEAR WHICH TAF SITES WILL DEFINITELY HAVE SOME SHOWERS. MOST MODELS TRY TO INDICATE THE CEILINGS LOWERING TO MVFR LATE TONIGHT. WENT ALONG WITH THAT BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. .OUTLOOK...NON VFR AT TIMES THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND OVER EXTREME NE OH AND NW PA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. && .MARINE... THE WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE ON THE LAKE TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH THE UPPER LOW AND SURFACE LOW OVER OHIO. ON THURSDAY WITH THE LOWS TO THE EAST THE FLOW WILL BE NORTHWEST BUT NOT EXPECTING THE WINDS TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PROMPT THE NEED FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...HOWEVER...THE LAKE WILL BE CHOPPY. A FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE FRIDAY. THE SOUTHWEST WINDS COULD BE STRONG ENOUGH AHEAD OF THE FRONT FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR AN ADVISORY WILL BE BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS THREAT WILL LAST INTO SUNDAY ESPECIALLY ON THE EAST END OF THE LAKE. THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS ARE A QUESTION ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE MODELS ARE QUITE VARIABLE. IF THE GFS IS CORRECT WINDS WILL APPROACH GALE FORCE. ALL THE OTHER MODELS ARE NOT AS STRONG. AT THIS POINT WITH SOME QUESTIONS CONTINUED THE 15 TO 25 KNOT FORECAST. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KUBINA NEAR TERM...KUBINA/MULLEN SHORT TERM...KUBINA LONG TERM...KIELTYKA AVIATION...KIELTYKA MARINE...KIELTYKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
749 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2014 .SYNOPSIS... AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM LOWER MICHIGAN TO EASTERN ILLINOIS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT AND TO JAMES BAY BY FRIDAY NIGHT. A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL ROTATE AROUND THIS LOW AND ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL STAY OVER THE EASTERN LAKES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS LEFT THE AREA BUT SOME SPRINKLES ARE LIKELY STILL FALLING ACROSS THE AREA. HRRR JUST COMING IN SHOWING SOME MORE LIGHT SHOWERS COULD OCCUR THIS MORNING IN THE WEST. COVERAGE WILL BE VERY SMALL BUT DID ADD AN ISOLATED MENTION PRIOR TO NOON. THE CLEAR AREA CONTINUES TO SLOWLY FILL IN AS WELL BUT SOME PEAKS OF SUN ARE LIKELY TODAY. NO CHANGES TO TEMPS OR THE AFTERNOON FORECAST. PREVIOUS...THE MAIN PRECIP BAND CONTINUES TO MAKE SLOW NE PROGRESS OUT OF THE AREA. MOST OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE GONE BY 12Z ALTHOUGH SOME PRECIP COULD LINGER OVER NW PA MUCH OF THE MORNING. PRECIP TOTALS SO FAR HAVE BEEN MODEST WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING AROUND HALF AN INCH. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY SHOULD BE MARGINAL AND NOT ANTICIPATING ANY PROBLEMS. MOST OF THE AREA WILL ENJOY A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER TODAY. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE SREF AND HRRR SHOW SHOWERS REDEVELOPING AROUND MIDDAY. COVERAGE SHOULD BE NO MORE THAN SCATTERED. WILL TRY FOR A DRY MORNING ALL BUT THE EASTERN END OF THE AREA WITH 30ISH POPS THIS AFTERNOON. NO THUNDER EXPECTED TODAY. SOME CLEARING HAS OCCURRED OVER THE WESTERN END OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. EXPECT THESE CLEAR AREAS TO FILL BACK IN BY DAYBREAK. COULD SEE A FEW PEAKS OF SUNSHINE DURING THE DAY JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE BUT MOSTLY CLOUDY WILL BE THE FLAVOR OF THE DAY. HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPS. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... THE SURFACE LOW WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY BUT THE PESKY UPPER LOW WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT WILL SEE PROLONGED PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER FOLLOWED BY PERIODS OF SHOWERS AS INDIVIDUAL PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATE ACROSS THE AREA. TIMING THESE IMPULSES REMAINS A CHALLENGE AND UNFORTUNATELY WILL HAVE TO GO WITH SEVERAL PERIODS OF CHANCE POPS. AM HOPING BY EARLY FRIDAY THAT MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE EASTERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE AREA GIVEN THE EXPECTED LOCATION OF THE UPPER LOW. PRECIP CHANCES WILL RETURN TO THE ENTIRE AREA ON SATURDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH INTO THE AREA. BY THAT TIME THE SURFACE LOW WILL OVER JAMES BAY. DO NOT THINK THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE A WASHOUT BY ANY MEANS AND PERIODS OR GLIMPSES OF SUN ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. HAVE USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE TEMPS. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS PERIOD. THE MODELS START IN AGREEMENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDING INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY. SOME LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS WILL LINGER IN EXTREME NE OH AND NW PA SUNDAY IN THE COLD NORTHWEST FLOW AS THE LAKE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE WILL BE NEAR 19C. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS MOVE THE HIGH TO THE EAST QUICKER THEN THE GFS AND THIS ALLOWS A FRONT TO BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH A THREAT OF SHOWERS. CONTINUED THE PREVIOUS THINKING WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AND DECREASING CHANCE ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD IN QUICKLY BY LATE TUESDAY. FOR SUNDAY WENT COOLER FOR THE HIGHS WITH THE 850 MB TEMPERATURE AVERAGING AROUND ZERO. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE SHOWERS HAVE MOVED EAST. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ESPECIALLY OVER NE OH AND NW PA CAUSING SOME IFR CEILINGS...ELSEWHERE A MIX OF VFR TO MVFR. THE TREND WILL BE FOR ALL AREAS TO LIFT TO VFR CEILINGS DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS THE SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LOW MOVE TOWARDS OHIO SOME SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND LAST INTO THE EVENING. SOME SUNSHINE ON TOP OF THE CLOUDS WILL HELP. AT THIS TIME THEY SEEM LIKE THEY WILL BE MORE ON THE SCATTERED SIDE...SO JUST WENT WITH VCSH...SHOWERS VICINITY UNTIL IT IS CLEAR WHICH TAF SITES WILL DEFINITELY HAVE SOME SHOWERS. MOST MODELS TRY TO INDICATE THE CEILINGS LOWERING TO MVFR LATE TONIGHT. WENT ALONG WITH THAT BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. .OUTLOOK...NON VFR AT TIMES THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND OVER EXTREME NE OH AND NW PA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. && .MARINE... THE WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE ON THE LAKE TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH THE UPPER LOW AND SURFACE LOW OVER OHIO. ON THURSDAY WITH THE LOWS TO THE EAST THE FLOW WILL BE NORTHWEST BUT NOT EXPECTING THE WINDS TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PROMPT THE NEED FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...HOWEVER...THE LAKE WILL BE CHOPPY. A FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE FRIDAY. THE SOUTHWEST WINDS COULD BE STRONG ENOUGH AHEAD OF THE FRONT FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR AN ADVISORY WILL BE BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS THREAT WILL LAST INTO SUNDAY ESPECIALLY ON THE EAST END OF THE LAKE. THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS ARE A QUESTION ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE MODELS ARE QUITE VARIABLE. IF THE GFS IS CORRECT WINDS WILL APPROACH GALE FORCE. ALL THE OTHER MODELS ARE NOT AS STRONG. AT THIS POINT WITH SOME QUESTIONS CONTINUED THE 15 TO 25 KNOT FORECAST. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KUBINA NEAR TERM...KUBINA SHORT TERM...KUBINA LONG TERM...KIELTYKA AVIATION...KIELTYKA MARINE...KIELTYKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
623 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2014 .SYNOPSIS... AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM LOWER MICHIGAN TO EASTERN ILLINOIS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT AND TO JAMES BAY BY FRIDAY NIGHT. A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL ROTATE AROUND THIS LOW AND ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL STAY OVER THE EASTERN LAKES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS LEFT THE AREA BUT SOME SPRINKLES ARE LIKELY STILL FALLING ACROSS THE AREA. HRRR JUST COMING IN SHOWING SOME MORE LIGHT SHOWERS COULD OCCUR THIS MORNING IN THE WEST. COVERAGE WILL BE VERY SMALL BUT DID ADD AN ISOLATED MENTION PRIOR TO NOON. THE CLEAR AREA CONTINUES TO SLOWLY FILL IN AS WELL BUT SOME PEAKS OF SUN ARE LIKELY TODAY. NO CHANGES TO TEMPS OR THE AFTERNOON FORECAST. PREVIOUS...THE MAIN PRECIP BAND CONTINUES TO MAKE SLOW NE PROGRESS OUT OF THE AREA. MOST OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE GONE BY 12Z ALTHOUGH SOME PRECIP COULD LINGER OVER NW PA MUCH OF THE MORNING. PRECIP TOTALS SO FAR HAVE BEEN MODEST WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING AROUND HALF AN INCH. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY SHOULD BE MARGINAL AND NOT ANTICIPATING ANY PROBLEMS. MOST OF THE AREA WILL ENJOY A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER TODAY. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE SREF AND HRRR SHOW SHOWERS REDEVELOPING AROUND MIDDAY. COVERAGE SHOULD BE NO MORE THAN SCATTERED. WILL TRY FOR A DRY MORNING ALL BUT THE EASTERN END OF THE AREA WITH 30ISH POPS THIS AFTERNOON. NO THUNDER EXPECTED TODAY. SOME CLEARING HAS OCCURRED OVER THE WESTERN END OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. EXPECT THESE CLEAR AREAS TO FILL BACK IN BY DAYBREAK. COULD SEE A FEW PEAKS OF SUNSHINE DURING THE DAY JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE BUT MOSTLY CLOUDY WILL BE THE FLAVOR OF THE DAY. HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPS. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... THE SURFACE LOW WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY BUT THE PESKY UPPER LOW WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT WILL SEE PROLONGED PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER FOLLOWED BY PERIODS OF SHOWERS AS INDIVIDUAL PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATE ACROSS THE AREA. TIMING THESE IMPULSES REMAINS A CHALLENGE AND UNFORTUNATELY WILL HAVE TO GO WITH SEVERAL PERIODS OF CHANCE POPS. AM HOPING BY EARLY FRIDAY THAT MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE EASTERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE AREA GIVEN THE EXPECTED LOCATION OF THE UPPER LOW. PRECIP CHANCES WILL RETURN TO THE ENTIRE AREA ON SATURDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH INTO THE AREA. BY THAT TIME THE SURFACE LOW WILL OVER JAMES BAY. DO NOT THINK THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE A WASHOUT BY ANY MEANS AND PERIODS OR GLIMPSES OF SUN ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. HAVE USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE TEMPS. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS PERIOD. THE MODELS START IN AGREEMENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDING INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY. SOME LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS WILL LINGER IN EXTREME NE OH AND NW PA SUNDAY IN THE COLD NORTHWEST FLOW AS THE LAKE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE WILL BE NEAR 19C. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS MOVE THE HIGH TO THE EAST QUICKER THEN THE GFS AND THIS ALLOWS A FRONT TO BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH A THREAT OF SHOWERS. CONTINUED THE PREVIOUS THINKING WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AND DECREASING CHANCE ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD IN QUICKLY BY LATE TUESDAY. FOR SUNDAY WENT COOLER FOR THE HIGHS WITH THE 850 MB TEMPERATURE AVERAGING AROUND ZERO. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS JUST ABOUT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AT 2 AM EDT. THE BAND OF SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT EAST. NO THUNDER IN THESE SHOWERS. VARYING CONDITIONS FROM VFR TO IFR IN THE SHOWERS. THE ISSUES FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE CEILINGS AND WHEN WILL THE SHOWERS DEVELOP AGAIN. A DECREASE IN CLOUDS OVER NW OH WILL LEAD TO STRATUS AND A LITTLE BIT OF FOG. THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE A LITTLE TOO STRONG FOR DENSE FOG TO FORM. CEILINGS WILL EVENTUALLY LIFT TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING BY EVENING. ELSEWHERE MVFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP ONCE THE RAIN ENDS AND THEN CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING BY LATE AFTERNOON. TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THE SHOWERS ARE IN QUESTION AS THE SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LOW WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. .OUTLOOK...NON VFR AT TIMES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND OVER EXTREME NE OH AND NW PA SATURDAY. && .MARINE... THE WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE ON THE LAKE TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH THE UPPER LOW AND SURFACE LOW OVER OHIO. ON THURSDAY WITH THE LOWS TO THE EAST THE FLOW WILL BE NORTHWEST BUT NOT EXPECTING THE WINDS TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PROMPT THE NEED FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...HOWEVER...THE LAKE WILL BE CHOPPY. A FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE FRIDAY. THE SOUTHWEST WINDS COULD BE STRONG ENOUGH AHEAD OF THE FRONT FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR AN ADVISORY WILL BE BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS THREAT WILL LAST INTO SUNDAY ESPECIALLY ON THE EAST END OF THE LAKE. THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS ARE A QUESTION ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE MODELS ARE QUITE VARIABLE. IF THE GFS IS CORRECT WINDS WILL APPROACH GALE FORCE. ALL THE OTHER MODELS ARE NOT AS STRONG. AT THIS POINT WITH SOME QUESTIONS CONTINUED THE 15 TO 25 KNOT FORECAST. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KUBINA NEAR TERM...KUBINA SHORT TERM...KUBINA LONG TERM...KIELTYKA AVIATION...KIELTYKA MARINE...KIELTYKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
332 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2014 .SYNOPSIS... AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM LOWER MICHIGAN TO EASTERN ILLINOIS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT AND TO JAMES BAY BY FRIDAY NIGHT. A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL ROTATE AROUND THIS LOW AND ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL STAY OVER THE EASTERN LAKES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... THE MAIN PRECIP BAND CONTINUES TO MAKE SLOW NE PROGRESS OUT OF THE AREA. MOST OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE GONE BY 12Z ALTHOUGH SOME PRECIP COULD LINGER OVER NW PA MUCH OF THE MORNING. PRECIP TOTALS SO FAR HAVE BEEN MODEST WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING AROUND HALF AN INCH. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY SHOULD BE MARGINAL AND NOT ANTICIPATING ANY PROBLEMS. MOST OF THE AREA WILL ENJOY A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER TODAY. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE SREF AND HRRR SHOW SHOWERS REDEVELOPING AROUND MIDDAY. COVERAGE SHOULD BE NO MORE THAN SCATTERED. WILL TRY FOR A DRY MORNING ALL BUT THE EASTERN END OF THE AREA WITH 30ISH POPS THIS AFTERNOON. NO THUNDER EXPECTED TODAY. SOME CLEARING HAS OCCURRED OVER THE WESTERN END OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. EXPECT THESE CLEAR AREAS TO FILL BACK IN BY DAYBREAK. COULD SEE A FEW PEAKS OF SUNSHINE DURING THE DAY JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE BUT MOSTLY CLOUDY WILL BE THE FLAVOR OF THE DAY. HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPS. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... THE SURFACE LOW WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY BUT THE PESKY UPPER LOW WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT WILL SEE PROLONGED PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER FOLLOWED BY PERIODS OF SHOWERS AS INDIVIDUAL PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATE ACROSS THE AREA. TIMING THESE IMPULSES REMAINS A CHALLENGE AND UNFORTUNATELY WILL HAVE TO GO WITH SEVERAL PERIODS OF CHANCE POPS. AM HOPING BY EARLY FRIDAY THAT MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE EASTERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE AREA GIVEN THE EXPECTED LOCATION OF THE UPPER LOW. PRECIP CHANCES WILL RETURN TO THE ENTIRE AREA ON SATURDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH INTO THE AREA. BY THAT TIME THE SURFACE LOW WILL OVER JAMES BAY. DO NOT THINK THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE A WASHOUT BY ANY MEANS AND PERIODS OR GLIMPSES OF SUN ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. HAVE USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE TEMPS. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS PERIOD. THE MODELS START IN AGREEMENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDING INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY. SOME LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS WILL LINGER IN EXTREME NE OH AND NW PA SUNDAY IN THE COLD NORTHWEST FLOW AS THE LAKE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE WILL BE NEAR 19C. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS MOVE THE HIGH TO THE EAST QUICKER THEN THE GFS AND THIS ALLOWS A FRONT TO BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH A THREAT OF SHOWERS. CONTINUED THE PREVIOUS THINKING WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AND DECREASING CHANCE ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD IN QUICKLY BY LATE TUESDAY. FOR SUNDAY WENT COOLER FOR THE HIGHS WITH THE 850 MB TEMPERATURE AVERAGING AROUND ZERO. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS JUST ABOUT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AT 2 AM EDT. THE BAND OF SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT EAST. NO THUNDER IN THESE SHOWERS. VARYING CONDITIONS FROM VFR TO IFR IN THE SHOWERS. THE ISSUES FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE CEILINGS AND WHEN WILL THE SHOWERS DEVELOP AGAIN. A DECREASE IN CLOUDS OVER NW OH WILL LEAD TO STRATUS AND A LITTLE BIT OF FOG. THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE A LITTLE TOO STRONG FOR DENSE FOG TO FORM. CEILINGS WILL EVENTUALLY LIFT TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING BY EVENING. ELSEWHERE MVFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP ONCE THE RAIN ENDS AND THEN CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING BY LATE AFTERNOON. TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THE SHOWERS ARE IN QUESTION AS THE SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LOW WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. .OUTLOOK...NON VFR AT TIMES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND OVER EXTREME NE OH AND NW PA SATURDAY. && .MARINE... THE WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE ON THE LAKE TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH THE UPPER LOW AND SURFACE LOW OVER OHIO. ON THURSDAY WITH THE LOWS TO THE EAST THE FLOW WILL BE NORTHWEST BUT NOT EXPECTING THE WINDS TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PROMPT THE NEED FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...HOWEVER...THE LAKE WILL BE CHOPPY. A FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE FRIDAY. THE SOUTHWEST WINDS COULD BE STRONG ENOUGH AHEAD OF THE FRONT FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR AN ADVISORY WILL BE BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS THREAT WILL LAST INTO SUNDAY ESPECIALLY ON THE EAST END OF THE LAKE. THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS ARE A QUESTION ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE MODELS ARE QUITE VARIABLE. IF THE GFS IS CORRECT WINDS WILL APPROACH GALE FORCE. ALL THE OTHER MODELS ARE NOT AS STRONG. AT THIS POINT WITH SOME QUESTIONS CONTINUED THE 15 TO 25 KNOT FORECAST. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KUBINA NEAR TERM...KUBINA SHORT TERM...KUBINA LONG TERM...KIELTYKA AVIATION...KIELTYKA MARINE...KIELTYKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND OR
339 AM PDT WED OCT 15 2014 .SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE SHOWERS OVER THE PACIFIC NW TODAY. A SURFACE LOW MAY BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS THIS MORNING TO MUCH OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD THURSDAY AND BRING A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT BRINGS ADDITIONAL RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS FRIDAY. SHOWERS WILL LINGER SATURDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS ANOTHER DRY PERIOD FOR SUNDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .SHORT TERM...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED OFFSHORE THE WASHINGTON AND OREGON COAST..WITH THE SOUTHERN END OF THE TROUGH AXIS JUST ABOUT TO MOVE OVER THE CA/OR BORDER. A RAIN BAND AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH HAS BEEN GENERATING SHOWERS OVER THE PORTLAND FORECAST AREA. A NARROW BAND OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVED OVER THE OREGON AND SOUTHERN WATERS OVERNIGHT. THIS BAND HAS MOVED NORTH...BUT THE POSSIBILITY OF ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE TROUGH PUSHES INLAND...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION...DECREASING THIS EVENING. SNOW LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 6500 FEET AND SHOULD LOWER TO AROUND 5500 FEET THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS SHOWERS ARE DECREASING. EXPECT A DUSTING OF SNOW FOR THE HIGHER CASCADES TODAY. A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS DEVELOPING OFF THE NORTHERN OREGON COAST NEAR 45N 132W. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD TIGHTEN AS THIS LOW MOVES NE TOWARDS THE WASHINGTON COAST THIS MORNING...AND EXPECT A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE COAST AND THROUGH THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY CLOSER TO SUNRISE THIS MORNING. THIS LOW IS WEAKER THAN THE PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS FORECASTED...AND THERE IS A CHANCE THAT OUR CURRENT WIND FORECAST IS OVERDONE 5 TO 10 MPH. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ARE JUST SHOWING THE GRADIENT BEGINNING TO TIGHTEN AT 3 AM THIS MORNING...AND WANT TO WATCH OBSERVATIONS FOR A COUPLE OF MORE HOURS BEFORE DECIDING WHETHER TO DROP OR KEEP THE WIND ADVISORY. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THURSDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH DIGS OFFSHORE...RESULTING IN A BREAK IN RAIN THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT MOIST FRONT WILL STALL OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE PUSHING ONSHORE EITHER FRIDAY MORNING OR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL BRING SNOW LEVELS ABOVE 8000 FEET BEFORE THE ONSET OF RAIN. GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT. THE NAM MODEL HINTS OF A COASTAL JET POSSIBLY DEVELOPING JUST OFFSHORE FRIDAY EVENING WHICH COULD BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONG GUSTS TO THE COAST. THE 00Z GFS FORECASTS 1.25 INCH OF TROPICAL PRECIPITABLE WATER AND DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 300K SURFACE...HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN. HOWEVER...SOME OF THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE TROUGH SPLIT AS IT NEARS WHICH WOULD BRING THIS HEAVIER RAIN NORTH OR SOUTH OF THE PORTLAND FORECAST AREA. THEREFORE...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON THE PROBABILITY OF RAIN BUT LOW ON RAIN AMOUNTS WITH THE FRIDAY FRONT. RAIN WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT FRIDAY...BUT SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. TJ .LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE RAIN AND COOLER WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS MAY DIP BACK DOWN TO AROUND 6000 FEET TUESDAY. TJ && .AVIATION...VFR PREVAILING WITH A MIX OF MVFR WITH SHOWERS THROUGH OUT THE DAY. LOCAL IFR VIS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS OR ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT MAY DEVELOP. THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS COAST RANGE WESTWARD THIS MORNING. SHOWER ACTIVITY DECREASE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE WIND SPEED FORECAST IS THE CHALLENGE TODAY. MODELS VARY ON THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF A DEVELOPING LOW OFF THE SOUTH OREGON COAST THAT WILL TRACK NORTH ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY. WHILE GUSTY WINDS ON THE COAST ARE EXPECTED...THERE IS A CHANCE SOUTH WINDS GUSTING 30 TO 35 KT IN THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS THIS MORNING. KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR PREVAILING WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS. AS STATED ABOVE WIND FORECAST IS THE CHALLENGE. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KT 16Z-20Z TIME FRAME BUT GUSTS 30 TO 35 KT IS POSSIBLE. && .MARINE...THE MAIN FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE A POORLY MODELED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STRENGTHENING JUST OFFSHORE FROM THE OR/CA BORDER. SO FAR OBSERVATIONS NEAR THE EXPECTED LOCATION OFF THE LOW OFF THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST IS ARE LAGGING A LITTLE COMPARED TO MODELS. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL RUN SEEMS TO BE THE BEST. THE LOCAL WRF IS STRONGER AND FASTER THAN OBSERVED. AS STATED PREVIOUSLY THE GALE WARNING MAY BE OVER DONE BUT GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES WILL KEEP THE CURRENT HEADLINES. THERE IS ANOTHER LOW THAT THE MODELS ARE HANDLING BETTER IS OFF THE NORTH OREGON COAST BRINGING ADVISORY WINDS TO THE NEARSHORE AREAS. THE OVERALL TREND IN THE MODELS IS TO INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. WINDS WILL SHIFT SW AND EASE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM LATER TODAY. SEAS...W-NW SWELL WILL BE INCREASING FROM A WELL-ENTRENCHED BROAD PARENT LOW DOMINATING THE GULF OF ALASKA AND NE PACIFIC. W-NW SWELL 12-15 FT WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ROTATING AROUND THIS BROADER UPPER LOW. WINDS INCREASE AGAIN THU AHEAD OF A STRONGER LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL DEVELOPING LATE THU OR FRI AND MOVING N TOWARDS SOUTHERN B.C. RESULTING IN A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING THE COASTAL WATERS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN SPECIFIC DETAILS OF THE SYSTEM IS GRADUALLY IMPROVING WITH AT LEAST GALE GUSTS APPEARING INCREASINGLY LIKELY. THAT SAID...SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AND WILL CONTINUE TO EVALUATE MODEL GUIDANCE IN THE COMING DAYS AS THE TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF THE LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL GREATLY INFLUENCE POTENTIAL IMPACTS. WEAGLE/CULLEN/MH && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-GREATER PORTLAND METRO AREA-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY. WA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR GREATER VANCOUVER AREA. PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM. GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 10 NM. GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM PDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 5 AM PDT THURSDAY. && $$ INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA. &&
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
343 AM CDT WED OCT 15 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT WED OCT 15 2014 LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE EDGES IN FROM WESTERN MINNESOTA/WESTERN IOWA. RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN BEFORE ENDING LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. SKIES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO SUNNY OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA. LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM LOWER 60S WHERE CLOUDS CLEAR TO THE MID 50S WHERE CLOUD COVER LINGERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT GRADUALLY WEAKENS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY SO WINDS WON/T BE AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY BUT STILL ON THE BREEZY SIDE AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 20 MPH. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG RIVER VALLEY LOCATIONS. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH AROUND 5 KFT AT KLSE. THIS SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR WIDESPREAD VALLEY FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON SOME HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST WHICH COULD LIMIT VALLEY FOG COVERAGE. ANOTHER NEGATIVE FOR FOG OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN IS LINGERING STRATUS. THIS LOOKS TO HANG ON THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT AND THIS WOULD CERTAINLY IMPACT FOG FORMATION OVER THESE AREAS. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT WED OCT 15 2014 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY WITH A PLEASANT FALL DAY IN STORE FOR THE AREA. PLAN ON MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE 60S. A TROUGH THEN DIVES INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE TROUGH WILL BRING COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN . HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN TO THE UPPER 50S ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA. NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW THEN PERSISTS OVER THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND. A SHORTWAVE DROPS INTO THE REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA. LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER RETURNS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S WITH LOWS IN THE 30S. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT TUE OCT 14 2014 STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER ILL WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE SLOW PROGRESS EAST TONIGHT-WED. THE REGION IS ON THE BACKSIDE OF A SHARP EDGED CLOUD BAND...JUST EAST OF AN EAU-AUM LINE AT LATE EVENING. MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR KLSE OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE EDGE WILL STAY CLOSE. UPPER LEVEL ENERGY/DEFORMATION REGION OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL KEEP BANDS OF -SHRA GOING WHERE THE CLOUDS ARE LOCATED. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME CU FORMATION ON THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE CLOUD BAND WED...BUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE ALREADY BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR KRST/KLSE. WIND SHEAR WILL REMAIN A CONCERN OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KLSE. LATEST VAD WIND PROFILES AT KARX HAVE 45KT WINDS AT 925 MB...ROUGHLY 2 KFT. RAP BUFKIT SOUNDINGS PERSIST THESE WINDS OVERNIGHT. A BIT LESS FOR KRST. WILL HOLD ONTO LLWS FOR KLSE OVERNIGHT. WED NIGHT/THU MORNING SHOWING PROMISE FOR VALLEY FOG AT KLSE. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS POINTING TO A DEEP...LIGHT WIND FIELD...WITH A SFC HIGH OVERNIGHT MOST OF THE NIGHT. RECENT RAINS WILL HELP WITH SATURATION IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. SOMETHING TO WATCH. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP LONG TERM...WETENKAMP AVIATION.....RIECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1130 PM CDT TUE OCT 14 2014 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT TUE OCT 14 2014 UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT SLOWLY NORTH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH THE SURFACE LOW LOCATED OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LOCAL AND REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS SHOWING TWO MAIN AREAS OF SHOWERS...ONE OVER SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN INTO EASTERN IOWA UNDERNEATH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WITH ANOTHER OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. THE RAIN OVER WISCONSIN AND IOWA WAS DRIFTING SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WITH THE RAIN OVER LAKE MICHIGAN MOVING NORTH. BOTH OF THESE AREAS ARE CLOSELY TIED TO SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. BASED ON THE MOVEMENT OF THESE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS...EXPECT THE RAIN OVER WISCONSIN AND IOWA TO CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH AND SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA/DISSIPATE BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THIS TREND IS HANDLED WELL BY THE 12Z HI-RES ARW AND HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE SCENARIO OF THE RAIN MOVING OUT SOONER THAN THE PREVIOUS EXPECTED...BUT DID NOT TOTALLY DRY THINGS OUT. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THE RAIN OVER LAKE MICHIGAN IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN COMING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVERNIGHT. AS IT DOES...THERE SHOULD BE A CONTINUATION OF THE RAIN ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE HI-RES ARW AND MOST OF THE 14.12Z MODELS INDICATE MOST OF THIS RAIN SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF WISCONSIN INTO ILLINOIS. CENTRAL WISCONSIN SHOULD BE ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THIS POTENTIAL RAIN AREA...AND HAVE MAINTAINED SOME 30 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCES ACROSS THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA TO COVER THIS POSSIBILITY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHOULD MOVE OFF INTO INDIANA WEDNESDAY BUT WITH ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH COMING AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF IT...SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. THE QUESTION BECOMES HOW FAR WEST THESE SHOWERS WILL EXTEND. THE HI-RES ARW SUGGESTS THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT WILL CARRY A SMALL RAIN CHANCE IN THE MORNING ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS AND THEN GO DRY IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE SLIDING SLOWLY EAST WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT TUE OCT 14 2014 THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT BRIEFLY BUILDS IN OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE CURRENT UPPER LEVEL LOW...WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ALLOWING THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO MOVE ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER AND OVER THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY. ALL THE 14.12Z MODELS SHOW THE BEST PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER PRIMARILY STAYING NORTH OF THE AREA...BUT SOME OF THIS COULD TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN. NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO WORK WITH...SO THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION SHOULD STAY NORTH IN THE BETTER PV ADVECTION...BUT WILL SHOW A SMALL 20 PERCENT CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTH. NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL ALLOW ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO DROP ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. PLENTY OF DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS ON THE TRACK OF THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND THE TIMING. THE 14.12Z ECMWF IS FARTHER SOUTHWEST THAN EITHER THE 14.12Z GEM AND GFS AND THE GFS IS SLOWER THAN THE OTHER TWO MODELS. FOR NOW...WILL SHOW A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AND ADJUST WHEN THERE IS A BETTER CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE MODELS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT TUE OCT 14 2014 STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER ILL WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE SLOW PROGRESS EAST TONIGHT-WED. THE REGION IS ON THE BACKSIDE OF A SHARP EDGED CLOUD BAND...JUST EAST OF AN EAU-AUM LINE AT LATE EVENING. MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR KLSE OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE EDGE WILL STAY CLOSE. UPPER LEVEL ENERGY/DEFORMATION REGION OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL KEEP BANDS OF -SHRA GOING WHERE THE CLOUDS ARE LOCATED. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME CU FORMATION ON THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE CLOUD BAND WED...BUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE ALREADY BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR KRST/KLSE. WIND SHEAR WILL REMAIN A CONCERN OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KLSE. LATEST VAD WIND PROFILES AT KARX HAVE 45KT WINDS AT 925 MB...ROUGHLY 2 KFT. RAP BUFKIT SOUNDINGS PERSIST THESE WINDS OVERNIGHT. A BIT LESS FOR KRST. WILL HOLD ONTO LLWS FOR KLSE OVERNIGHT. WED NIGHT/THU MORNING SHOWING PROMISE FOR VALLEY FOG AT KLSE. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS POINTING TO A DEEP...LIGHT WIND FIELD...WITH A SFC HIGH OVERNIGHT MOST OF THE NIGHT. RECENT RAINS WILL HELP WITH SATURATION IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. SOMETHING TO WATCH. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...04 LONG TERM....04 AVIATION.....RIECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
537 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 536 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW THAT THE STRONG SHORTWAVE THAT WAS OVER MT 24HRS AGO IS NOW A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR KDLH WITH ASSOCIATED SFC LOW NEAR KIWD. SO FAR...PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE HAS MOSTLY BEEN NOTHING MORE THAN SCT. ONE ARC OF PCPN IS NEARING KIWD AS OF 09Z. MID LEVEL LOW THAT HAS PLAGUED THE GREAT LAKES IN RECENT DAYS IS SHIFTING N IN RESPONSE TO THE UPSTREAM WAVE AND IS NOW CENTERED JUST NE OF GEORGIAN BAY. LARGE AREA OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS BACKING W THRU NRN ONTARIO TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR. CLOSER TO HOME...IT`S BEEN A QUIET NIGHT ACROSS UPPER MI UNDER A BLANKET OF LOW CLOUDS OVER ALL BUT THE FAR W. SOME FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...AND SPOTTY -DZ HAS BEEN NOTED. AS SYSTEM NEAR KDLH TRACKS SE INTO LWR MI BY EVENING...IT WILL ENTRAIN SOME OF THE MOISTURE BACKING W ACROSS NRN ONTARIO. THE DEEPENING MOISTURE PROFILE COMBINED WITH FORCING PROVIDED BY THE WAVE WILL RESULT IN EXPANSION OF PCPN ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES TODAY. PCPN WILL BECOME MOST WIDESPREAD ACROSS NRN UPPER MI DUE TO STRENGTHENING NRLY UPSLOPE FLOW AND EVENTUALLY A WEAK LAKE ENHANCEMENT COMPONENT AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TO 0C BY 00Z. WITH DEVELOPMENT OF MORE WIDESPREAD PCPN AND STRENGTHENING NRLY WINDS...TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO FALL THIS AFTN...SETTLING INTO THE LWR 40S BY EVENING ACROSS THE N AND W. TONIGHT...DEEP MOISTURE LINGERS IN THE EVENING...PROVIDING CONTINUED UPSLOPE FLOW/LAKE ENHANCED PCPN OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. UTILIZING WET BULB HEIGHTS...MAY SEE A LITTLE SNOW MIX WITH THE RAIN OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE KEWEENAW AND FROM THE HURON MTNS TOWARD IRON RIVER BY LATE EVENING AS WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS FALL BLO 1500FT AGL IN THOSE AREAS. OVERNIGHT...THERE IS EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT ON VERY PRONOUNCED DRYING FROM THE NW BEGINNING ROUGHLY AROUND 06Z. INVERSION CRASHES TO AROUND 3KFT. WITH TEMPS IN THE SHALLOW MOIST LAYER -5 TO -7C AT THE LOWEST...IT`S VERY POSSIBLE PCPN WILL COMPLETELY SHUTDOWN OR NEARLY SHUTDOWN FROM W TO E OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING AS SUFFICIENTLY WARM WATER TO REACH THE LAKE EFFECT THRESHOLD ONLY EXISTS CLOSE TO THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THUS...IN EFFECT...THERE IS ONLY A SHORT FETCH. THE VERY NOTABLE DECREASE IN PCPN COVERAGE ON ALL MODEL GUIDANCE CERTAINLY REFLECTS THIS POSSIBILITY. FOR NOW...GRIDS WILL SHOW LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS IN THE EVENING ACROSS THE N FALLING TO CHC OVERNIGHT...LOWEST W. IN THE INTERIOR AWAY FROM AREAS FAVORED BY NNW UPSLOPE...SCT SHRA IN THE EVENING WILL END OVERNIGHT. WITH WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS CONTINUING TO FALL...MORE OF THE LINGERING PCPN WILL MIX WITH OR EVEN CHANGE TO SNOW WHERE MOISTURE STILL EXTENDS TO THE -10C OR LWR ISOTHERM. GIVEN THE RAPID DECREASE IN PCPN COVERAGE/INTENSITY DURING THE OVERNIGHT...NOT EXPECTING ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION. ON A FINAL NOTE...WITH STRONGER WINDS OF 30-40KT CENTERED AROUND 2KFT ARRIVING THIS AFTN COMBINED WITH WEAK CAA...WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY THIS AFTN...AT FIRST NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT EVENTUALLY OVER MUCH OF THE FCST AREA. EXPECT STRONGEST WINDS GUSTING TO 35-40MPH CLOSER TO LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY E OF THE KEWEENAW FROM MARQUETTE TO GRAND MARAIS WHERE THE STRONGER CORE OF WINDS IS NOTED IN MODEL GUIDANCE. WIND GUSTS INLAND AND CLOSER TO LAKE MICHIGAN WILL BE UP TO AROUND 30MPH. GIVEN THE HIGH WATER LEVELS ON LAKE SUPERIOR (HIGHEST SINCE THE MID 1990S) AND WAVES BUILDING TO 8-12 FEET LATE IN THE DAY INTO TONIGHT (HIGHEST E OF THE KEWEENAW)... MINOR BEACH EROSION/FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ON THE BEACHES FROM AROUND MARQUETTE TO GRAND MARAIS. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014 MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE LONG TERM WL BE FOCUSED ON DIMINISHING POPS/WINDS ON SAT AND THEN POPS AGAIN LATE SUN INTO MON IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER SHRTWV DIGGING INTO THE GREAT LKS. TEMPS SHOULD BE AOB NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEK WITH THE COLDEST TEMPS ON SAT NGT UNDER HI PRES RDG/DRY AIRMASS PASSING OVER THE UPR LKS. SOME WARMER WX WL RETURN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK UNDER A BLDG UPR RDG. SAT...ALTHOUGH PLENTY OF LK CLDS AND SOME SCT SHOWERS OF RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW WL STILL BE ARND IN THE MRNG UNDER LINGERING H85 THERMAL TROF...RISING HGTS/DNVA/LARGE SCALE QVECTOR DVGC IN ADVANCE OF APRCHG SHRTWV RDG THAT IS FCST TO SHARPEN AND LOWER INVRN BASE BLO H9 BY 00Z SUN WL END THIS PCPN AND BRING A RETURN OF SOME SUNSHINE BY LATE IN THE DAY AS INVRN BASE SINKS BLO THE LCL. EXPECT LINGERING GUSTY NNW WINDS IN THE MRNG TO ALSO DIMINISH STEADILY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF HI PRES RDG OVER THE W LATE IN THE DAY. SAT NGT...WITH RDG AXIS PASSING OVHD AND PWAT FCST AS LO AS 0.25 INCH SUPPORTING THE CLRG OF ANY LO CLDS THAT MIGHT LINGER EARLY OVER THE E...EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL WELL INTO THE 20S OVER THE INTERIOR CENTRAL AND E. RETURN SW FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SFC RDG AXIS AND SOME HI CLDS ARRIVING LATE IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SHRTWV DIGGING SEWD THRU SCENTRAL CANADA WL TEND TO LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP DROP OVER THE W. SUN INTO MON...NEXT SHRTWV DROPPING SEWD AND INTO THE UPR LKS/UPR MIDWEST BY 12Z MON WL BRING INCRSG CLDS ON SUN AND THE NEXT CHC OF SHOWERS SUN AFTN INTO MON MRNG. ALTHOUGH MSTR INFLOW INTO THIS DISTURBANCE WL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED...FAIRLY VIGOROUS DPVA/QVECTOR CNVGC AND SOME SHARPER ISENTROPIC ASCENT SHOWN BEST ON THE 295K SFC /H775-725/ WARRANT RAISING POPS INTO THE HI LIKELY RANGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND E CENTERED ARND 00Z MON WHERE AND WHEN THE DYNAMIC FORCING WL BE SHARPEST. ALTHOUGH THE SHARPER UPPER FORCING WL EXIT ON MON MRNG...LINGERING LLVL CYC NE FLOW AND SOME DEEPER MSTR SHOULD MAINTAIN LOTS OF CLDS AND SOME SCT SHOWERS. ALTHOUGH H85 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO FALL TO ARND 0C BY 00Z TUE...ALL THE PCPN SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RA WITH H85 TEMPS IN THE 2-5C RANGE MOST OF THE TIME. MON NGT INTO TUE...ALTHOUGH HGTS WL BEGIN TO RISE IN THE WAKE OF THE DIGGING SHRTWV INTO THE SE GREAT LKS...SOME MODELS SHOW SHARPER CYC NE FLOW LINGERING INTO TUE MRNG. THIS SETUP MAY BE FAVORABLE FOR MORE LK CLDS/EVEN A FEW SPRINKLES LINGERING A BIT LONGER FOR AREAS NEAR LK SUP...MAINLY OVER THE NCENTRAL. BUT AS SFC HI PRES BUILDS SLOWLY SE ON TUE...EXPECT ANY LINGERING CLDS TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE AND GIVE WAY TO A MOSUNNY AFTN. WED/THU...EXPECT MOCLR SKIES WITH SFC HI PRES UNDER UPR RDG EXTENDING FM THE PLAINS INTO THE UPR GREAT LKS. WITH H85 TEMPS UP TO 8 TO 9C...EXPECT ABV NORMAL MAX TEMPS BOTH DAYS. BUT CLEAR SKIES/LGT WINDS AT NGT WL SUPPORT A LARGE DIURNAL TEMP RANGE. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 138 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014 AT KIWD...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GIVE WAY TO IFR TOWARD DAYBREAK AS LOW PRESSURE OVER NRN MN BEGINS TO CROSS THE AREA WITH RAIN DEVEVLOPING AND INCREASING NRLY UPSLOPE FLOW. AT KSAW AND KCMX...WITH WEAK WINDS OVERNIGHT AND LACK OF DRY AIR ADVECTION...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL PERSIST WITH LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS NEAR AIRPORT MINS AT TIMES. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH TODAY WILL SWITCH WINDS TO NORTHERLY BY MID-LATE MORNING WHICH WILL RESULT IN CONTINUATION OF LOW CLOUDS...AT LEAST AS LOW AS IFR. VSBY MAY IMPROVE FOR A TIME THOUGH...BEFORE STEADIER RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT KSAW UNDER FAVORABLY NRLY FLOW. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014 AS A LO PRES DEEPENS NEAR JAMES BAY TODAY...EXPECT NNW GALES TO 35-40 KTS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO SAT MORNING OVER ALL BUT FAR WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. CONTINUED GALE WARNINGS ISSUED YESTERDAY. ISSUED GALE WARNINGS FOR THE LAKE MICHIGAN NEARSHORE WATERS AND THE NORTHERN BAY OF GREEN BAY AS AXIS OF HIGHEST WINDS WILL EXTEND INTO THAT AREA BY THIS EVENING BEFORE THE FREQUENT GALE FORCE GUSTS DIMINISH ON SAT MORNING. AS A HI PRES RIDGE APPROACHES FROM THE W ON SAT...THE STRONG WINDS WILL DIMINISH W-E. ALTHOUGH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE/SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK...NO STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... GALE WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 11 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LSZ266- 267. GALE WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LSZ244-245- 248-249-264-265. GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LSZ250-251. GALE WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ242-243-246-247-263. LAKE MICHIGAN... GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LMZ221-248-250. && $$ SHORT TERM...ROLFSON LONG TERM...KC AVIATION...JLB MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1124 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2014 TEMPERATURES WILL PROVIDE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES INTO THE MID PART OF NEXT WEEK. THERE IS SOME CHANCE OF PCPN BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AN IMPRESSIVE 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS NOTED OVER THE DAKOTAS WITH 12 HR HEIGHT FALLS OF ABOUT 150 METERS OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. LATEST RUC INITIALIZATION IN COMBINATION WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED THE CENTER OF THE CIRCULATION WAS OVER NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE NOTED JUST AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. 850 MB CHART FROM 12Z THIS MORNING SHOWED A THERMAL RIDGE FROM WEST TEXAS UP INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. THIS HAS ALREADY BEEN SHIFTING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA AS OF MID AFTERNOON. FAIRLY DEEP MIXING ALONG/BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA HELPED PUSH TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE 70S...BUT COOLING WAS ALREADY TAKING PLACE IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. MODEST LOW LEVEL GRADIENT TONIGHT MAY HELP KEEP WINDS UP...SO RAISED THEM A BIT COMPARED TO LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. THE AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS CURRENTLY OFF TO OUR NORTH MAY MOVE INTO OUR NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING (MOSTLY NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM ALBION TO FREMONT AND RED OAK). OTHERWISE...WE LOOK FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES (COMPARED TO TODAY) FOR BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS BUILDS INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT SO KEPT LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER AND MID 30S (AT OR BELOW MOS GUIDANCE). SURFACE WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE LATER SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING...THEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST. GOOD MIXING WITH THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH HIGHS INTO THE 60S MOST AREAS WITH SOME HIGHS AROUND 70 WESTERN ZONES. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2014 THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY AT THE BEGINNING BUT MAY TURN WET BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY. LATEST MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...WITH A 500 MB RIDGE FROM WYOMING UP INTO ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN. A CLOSED LOW WILL BE NEAR THE ARIZONA/CALIFORNIA/MEXICO BORDER REGION AND A TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM ALASKA DOWN TO NEAR 30 N 135 W. SOME ENERGY WILL MOVE EAST OUT OF THAT TROUGH IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND BE OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION BY WEDNESDAY. THIS LOOKS LIKE IT WILL PROVIDE OUT NEXT GOOD CHANCE FOR PCPN. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS ARE NOT IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT BY THAT TIME (GFS IS WET FOR OUR AREA WHILE THE ECMWF HOLDS THE PCPN MAINLY TO OUR WEST)... THE GENERAL PATTERN SUGGESTS LOW CHANCE CATEGORY POPS ARE NEEDED FOR NOW. HIGHS FROM MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY 60S TO LOWER 790S WITH LOWS IN THE 40S OR UPPER 30S. && .AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2014 A LARGE AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD TAF SITES BEHIND A REINFORCING FRONT THAT WAS ALSO BRINGING INCREASING NW WINDS TO THE REGION. ALTHOUGH CIGS INITIALLY COULD BE ABOVE FL030...THEY SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE MVFR RANGE AND COULD PERSIST WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT KOMA AND KOFK. IT APPEARS LINCOLN WILL BE ON SW EDGE OF THE CLOUDS AND THUS ONLY A TEMPO GROUP WAS CARRIED WITH INITIAL 06Z FORECAST. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...MILLER LONG TERM...MILLER AVIATION...CHERMOK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
309 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014 LATEST SUITE OF SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY CONDITIONS COVERING JUST ABOUT ALL OF WESTERN/CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SOUTHWEST. NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND THE LATEST HRRR CEILING FORECAST KEEP A NEARLY SATURATED LAYER...ALBEIT SHALLOW...FROM 900MB TO 850MB ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY. THE WEST WILL SEE A RETURN TO A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY BY LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE IS NOT AS DEEP AND SUBSIDENCE/DRYING OCCURS BEHIND A DEPARTING SHORTWAVE THIS AFTERNOON. A H85 COLD POCKET OF 0C TO +2C SLIDES INTO THE EAST CENTRAL ZONES TODAY KEEPING UNSTABLE CONDITIONS IN PLACE AS STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE 925-H85 LAYER ARE MAINTAINED FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS SOUTH INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. THUS WITH THE EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS UPSTREAM PER FOG/STRATUS IMAGERY LOOP...IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE LATEST TIME HEIGHT RH CROSS SECTIONS...CLOUDS/BRISK WINDS WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE CLEARING BEGINS TO TAKE PLACE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S NORTH AND EAST TO LOWER 50S SOUTHWEST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS TWO SHORTWAVES...THE FIRST WAS SHORTWAVE WAS CIRCULATING OVER NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA...AND THIS IS FORECAST TO SLIDE INTO SOUTHEAST MONTANA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS LACKING FOR ANYTHING MUCH MORE THAN CLOUDS THROUGH THE MORNING IN THE SOUTHWEST...THEN AS MENTIONED ABOVE SOME CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SHORTWAVE. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL/NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN...AND THIS IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF NORTH DAKOTA TODAY AS IT MOVES INTO MANITOBA AND MINNESOTA. DECREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS 30 TO 35F. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014 THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL NOT BE UNTIL THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIMEFRAME NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS THIS WEEKEND FOR A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. SOUTHERLY WINDS SATURDAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE 50S CENTRAL TO THE LOWER 60S WEST. ON SUNDAY A WEAK FRONT WILL BRING NORTHWEST WINDS AT 10 TO 15 MPH...BUT THE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT IS MILD PACIFIC AIR AND HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE STATE. MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 60S NORTHEAST TO LOWER 70S SOUTHWEST. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES...PUTTING THE DAKOTAS UNDER A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL BRING SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. CURRENTLY THE MODEL BLEND SOLUTION BRINGS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO THE WEST WEDNESDAY...AND CENTRAL/EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LATEST DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN WEAKER/DRIER WITH THIS FEATURE...WITH THE MAIN ENERGY ALOFT LIFTING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...COULD SEE A DRY FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURES COOL ONLY SLIGHTLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BUT IT WILL REMAIN MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014 THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW MVFR CIGS OVER KMOT/KBIS/KJMS...AND A MIX OF LOW VFR AND MVFR CIGS AT KISN AND KDIK. MVFR CIGS WILL DOMINATE AT KMOT/KBIS/KJMS THROUGH 03Z SATURDAY...WHILE LOW VFR/MVFR CIGS AT KISN/KDIK WILL IMPROVE TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS TO 30KT WILL CONTINUE AT KJMS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KS LONG TERM...TWH AVIATION...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
349 AM MDT FRI OCT 17 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 349 AM MDT FRI OCT 17 2014 THE VERY NICE FALL WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAK FRONT HAS BACKED ACROSS THE PLAINS AND TEMPS ARE CHILLY WITH MANY LOCATIONS IN THE LOW-TO-MID 30S. STRATUS IS CURRENTLY ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE HRRR PUSHES THE LOW CLOUDS INTO THE FAR EASTERN ZONES BY SUNRISE...HOWEVER BELIEVE IT MAY BE A BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE. A DROP IN TEMPS OF 5-10 DEGREES WILL BE SEE TODAY ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S AS OPPOSED TO THE 70S FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS. HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE ON SAT WITH WARM ADVECTION. TEMPS WILL BE BACK UP INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE BREEZY DURING THE AFTN OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AS PRESSURE FALLS OCCUR OVER EASTERN MT DURING THE DAY. WEAK SHORTWAVE PUSHES FROM MT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SAT NIGHT. OTHER THAN DRAGGING A WEAK COOL FRONT OVER THE PANHANDLE ON SUN MORNING...THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE VERY LITTLE EFFECT ON THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD ON SUN FOR A CONTINUATION OF THE TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 349 AM MDT FRI OCT 17 2014 DRY AND MILD TO START OFF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES MONDAY WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT INTO THE PLAINS WITH A TROUGH TO PUSH INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY MID WEEK. TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS INTO THE 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 60S INTO THE WEST. TUESDAY COULD BE VERY WARM FOR THE LATER PORTIONS OF OCTOBER. MAY SEE RECORD HIGHS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA ASSUMING HIGH CLOUDS ARE NOT TOO EXTENSIVE AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE WEDNESDAY BASED ON CURRENT MODEL TIMING. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE IN THE FORM OF LIQUID...AND THAT MAY ALSO HOLD TRUE FOR THE MOUNTAINS AS THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF COLD AIR FROM THIS PACIFIC SYSTEM. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 249 AM MDT FRI OCT 17 2014 MAIN AVIATION CONCERN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS INTO THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. CURRENTLY WIDESPREAD IFR TO MVFR DUE TO STRATUS OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THE STRATUS WILL SPILL SOUTH INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA BY LATE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. && .FIRE WEATHER... ISSUED AT 249 AM MDT FRI OCT 17 2014 NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES COOLER TODAY FOR AREAS TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. MINIMUM AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE TO THE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. WITH WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS...WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 15 MPH THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...FINCH LONG TERM...SML AVIATION...SML FIRE WEATHER...FINCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
830 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014 UPDATE... 12Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA PENINSULA. SHORTWAVE ENERGY HAS RAPIDLY PIVOTED UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD LEAVING THE DEEP SOUTH UNDER A LARGE SCALE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN. THIS ZONAL FLOW WILL HOLD THROUGH TONIGHT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL AMPLIFY TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEY...AND THEN OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS ENERGY WILL PUSH ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT DOWN INTO THE PENINSULA FOR SUNDAY...HOWEVER A VERY DRY ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL KEEP THIS A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH VIRTUALLY NOT CHANCE OF ANY ASSOCIATED RAIN. CURRENTLY...WE FIND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AND IN FIRM CONTROL OF OUR LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. THIS NEARBY RIDGE WILL PROVIDE A WEAK GRADIENT AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE DAY. JUST GOT THE 17/12Z KTBW SOUNDING PROFILE INTO OUR SYSTEMS AND THE COLUMN CONTINUES TO DRY OUT AND IS NOW SHOWING A VERY IMPRESSIVE LOW PW VALUE OF 0.47"...WITH LARGE DEWPOINT DEPRESSION THROUGH THE EXTENT OF THE COLUMN. IT IS GOING TO BE DIFFICULT TO EVEN SEE A FEW SHALLOW CU DEVELOP TODAY GIVEN THE CURRENT PROFILE. VERY LITTLE ELSE TO TALK ABOUT WITH THIS PATTERN. WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LARGE SCALE FORCING AND THE DRYNESS OF THE COLUMN...THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE WITH MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS. HAVE A GREAT REST OF YOUR FRIDAY AND ENJOY THE PLEASANT WEATHER THIS WEEKEND. && .AVIATION... VFR CONDITION WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. && .MARINE... N/NW FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE WATERS. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE E/NE FOR SUNDAY AND THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE IS REINFORCED FROM THE NORTH. NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 81 63 83 67 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 83 63 85 64 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 82 61 85 64 / 0 0 0 0 SRQ 81 61 83 63 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 82 49 84 56 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 80 68 83 72 / 0 0 0 0 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GULF WATERS...NONE. && $$ UPDATE/AVIATION...MROCZKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
736 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 536 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW THAT THE STRONG SHORTWAVE THAT WAS OVER MT 24HRS AGO IS NOW A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR KDLH WITH ASSOCIATED SFC LOW NEAR KIWD. SO FAR...PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE HAS MOSTLY BEEN NOTHING MORE THAN SCT. ONE ARC OF PCPN IS NEARING KIWD AS OF 09Z. MID LEVEL LOW THAT HAS PLAGUED THE GREAT LAKES IN RECENT DAYS IS SHIFTING N IN RESPONSE TO THE UPSTREAM WAVE AND IS NOW CENTERED JUST NE OF GEORGIAN BAY. LARGE AREA OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS BACKING W THRU NRN ONTARIO TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR. CLOSER TO HOME...IT`S BEEN A QUIET NIGHT ACROSS UPPER MI UNDER A BLANKET OF LOW CLOUDS OVER ALL BUT THE FAR W. SOME FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...AND SPOTTY -DZ HAS BEEN NOTED. AS SYSTEM NEAR KDLH TRACKS SE INTO LWR MI BY EVENING...IT WILL ENTRAIN SOME OF THE MOISTURE BACKING W ACROSS NRN ONTARIO. THE DEEPENING MOISTURE PROFILE COMBINED WITH FORCING PROVIDED BY THE WAVE WILL RESULT IN EXPANSION OF PCPN ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES TODAY. PCPN WILL BECOME MOST WIDESPREAD ACROSS NRN UPPER MI DUE TO STRENGTHENING NRLY UPSLOPE FLOW AND EVENTUALLY A WEAK LAKE ENHANCEMENT COMPONENT AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TO 0C BY 00Z. WITH DEVELOPMENT OF MORE WIDESPREAD PCPN AND STRENGTHENING NRLY WINDS...TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO FALL THIS AFTN...SETTLING INTO THE LWR 40S BY EVENING ACROSS THE N AND W. TONIGHT...DEEP MOISTURE LINGERS IN THE EVENING...PROVIDING CONTINUED UPSLOPE FLOW/LAKE ENHANCED PCPN OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. UTILIZING WET BULB HEIGHTS...MAY SEE A LITTLE SNOW MIX WITH THE RAIN OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE KEWEENAW AND FROM THE HURON MTNS TOWARD IRON RIVER BY LATE EVENING AS WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS FALL BLO 1500FT AGL IN THOSE AREAS. OVERNIGHT...THERE IS EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT ON VERY PRONOUNCED DRYING FROM THE NW BEGINNING ROUGHLY AROUND 06Z. INVERSION CRASHES TO AROUND 3KFT. WITH TEMPS IN THE SHALLOW MOIST LAYER -5 TO -7C AT THE LOWEST...IT`S VERY POSSIBLE PCPN WILL COMPLETELY SHUTDOWN OR NEARLY SHUTDOWN FROM W TO E OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING AS SUFFICIENTLY WARM WATER TO REACH THE LAKE EFFECT THRESHOLD ONLY EXISTS CLOSE TO THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THUS...IN EFFECT...THERE IS ONLY A SHORT FETCH. THE VERY NOTABLE DECREASE IN PCPN COVERAGE ON ALL MODEL GUIDANCE CERTAINLY REFLECTS THIS POSSIBILITY. FOR NOW...GRIDS WILL SHOW LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS IN THE EVENING ACROSS THE N FALLING TO CHC OVERNIGHT...LOWEST W. IN THE INTERIOR AWAY FROM AREAS FAVORED BY NNW UPSLOPE...SCT SHRA IN THE EVENING WILL END OVERNIGHT. WITH WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS CONTINUING TO FALL...MORE OF THE LINGERING PCPN WILL MIX WITH OR EVEN CHANGE TO SNOW WHERE MOISTURE STILL EXTENDS TO THE -10C OR LWR ISOTHERM. GIVEN THE RAPID DECREASE IN PCPN COVERAGE/INTENSITY DURING THE OVERNIGHT...NOT EXPECTING ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION. ON A FINAL NOTE...WITH STRONGER WINDS OF 30-40KT CENTERED AROUND 2KFT ARRIVING THIS AFTN COMBINED WITH WEAK CAA...WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY THIS AFTN...AT FIRST NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT EVENTUALLY OVER MUCH OF THE FCST AREA. EXPECT STRONGEST WINDS GUSTING TO 35-40MPH CLOSER TO LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY E OF THE KEWEENAW FROM MARQUETTE TO GRAND MARAIS WHERE THE STRONGER CORE OF WINDS IS NOTED IN MODEL GUIDANCE. WIND GUSTS INLAND AND CLOSER TO LAKE MICHIGAN WILL BE UP TO AROUND 30MPH. GIVEN THE HIGH WATER LEVELS ON LAKE SUPERIOR (HIGHEST SINCE THE MID 1990S) AND WAVES BUILDING TO 8-12 FEET LATE IN THE DAY INTO TONIGHT (HIGHEST E OF THE KEWEENAW)... MINOR BEACH EROSION/FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ON THE BEACHES FROM AROUND MARQUETTE TO GRAND MARAIS. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014 MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE LONG TERM WL BE FOCUSED ON DIMINISHING POPS/WINDS ON SAT AND THEN POPS AGAIN LATE SUN INTO MON IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER SHRTWV DIGGING INTO THE GREAT LKS. TEMPS SHOULD BE AOB NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEK WITH THE COLDEST TEMPS ON SAT NGT UNDER HI PRES RDG/DRY AIRMASS PASSING OVER THE UPR LKS. SOME WARMER WX WL RETURN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK UNDER A BLDG UPR RDG. SAT...ALTHOUGH PLENTY OF LK CLDS AND SOME SCT SHOWERS OF RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW WL STILL BE ARND IN THE MRNG UNDER LINGERING H85 THERMAL TROF...RISING HGTS/DNVA/LARGE SCALE QVECTOR DVGC IN ADVANCE OF APRCHG SHRTWV RDG THAT IS FCST TO SHARPEN AND LOWER INVRN BASE BLO H9 BY 00Z SUN WL END THIS PCPN AND BRING A RETURN OF SOME SUNSHINE BY LATE IN THE DAY AS INVRN BASE SINKS BLO THE LCL. EXPECT LINGERING GUSTY NNW WINDS IN THE MRNG TO ALSO DIMINISH STEADILY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF HI PRES RDG OVER THE W LATE IN THE DAY. SAT NGT...WITH RDG AXIS PASSING OVHD AND PWAT FCST AS LO AS 0.25 INCH SUPPORTING THE CLRG OF ANY LO CLDS THAT MIGHT LINGER EARLY OVER THE E...EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL WELL INTO THE 20S OVER THE INTERIOR CENTRAL AND E. RETURN SW FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SFC RDG AXIS AND SOME HI CLDS ARRIVING LATE IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SHRTWV DIGGING SEWD THRU SCENTRAL CANADA WL TEND TO LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP DROP OVER THE W. SUN INTO MON...NEXT SHRTWV DROPPING SEWD AND INTO THE UPR LKS/UPR MIDWEST BY 12Z MON WL BRING INCRSG CLDS ON SUN AND THE NEXT CHC OF SHOWERS SUN AFTN INTO MON MRNG. ALTHOUGH MSTR INFLOW INTO THIS DISTURBANCE WL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED...FAIRLY VIGOROUS DPVA/QVECTOR CNVGC AND SOME SHARPER ISENTROPIC ASCENT SHOWN BEST ON THE 295K SFC /H775-725/ WARRANT RAISING POPS INTO THE HI LIKELY RANGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND E CENTERED ARND 00Z MON WHERE AND WHEN THE DYNAMIC FORCING WL BE SHARPEST. ALTHOUGH THE SHARPER UPPER FORCING WL EXIT ON MON MRNG...LINGERING LLVL CYC NE FLOW AND SOME DEEPER MSTR SHOULD MAINTAIN LOTS OF CLDS AND SOME SCT SHOWERS. ALTHOUGH H85 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO FALL TO ARND 0C BY 00Z TUE...ALL THE PCPN SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RA WITH H85 TEMPS IN THE 2-5C RANGE MOST OF THE TIME. MON NGT INTO TUE...ALTHOUGH HGTS WL BEGIN TO RISE IN THE WAKE OF THE DIGGING SHRTWV INTO THE SE GREAT LKS...SOME MODELS SHOW SHARPER CYC NE FLOW LINGERING INTO TUE MRNG. THIS SETUP MAY BE FAVORABLE FOR MORE LK CLDS/EVEN A FEW SPRINKLES LINGERING A BIT LONGER FOR AREAS NEAR LK SUP...MAINLY OVER THE NCENTRAL. BUT AS SFC HI PRES BUILDS SLOWLY SE ON TUE...EXPECT ANY LINGERING CLDS TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE AND GIVE WAY TO A MOSUNNY AFTN. WED/THU...EXPECT MOCLR SKIES WITH SFC HI PRES UNDER UPR RDG EXTENDING FM THE PLAINS INTO THE UPR GREAT LKS. WITH H85 TEMPS UP TO 8 TO 9C...EXPECT ABV NORMAL MAX TEMPS BOTH DAYS. BUT CLEAR SKIES/LGT WINDS AT NGT WL SUPPORT A LARGE DIURNAL TEMP RANGE. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 736 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014 INCREASING NORTHERLY UPSLOPE WINDS AND DEVELOPING/EXPANDING PCPN WILL LEAD TO IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TODAY AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. LIFR CONDITIONS ARE MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR AT KIWD/KSAW UNDER A MORE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE WIND. THE STRENGTHENING NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST AT KSAW THIS AFTN/EVENING WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 30KT. AS DRIER AIR BEINGS FLOW INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR AT ALL TERMINALS WITH PCPN DIMINISHING OR ENDING. IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR FIRST AT KCMX AND LAST AT KSAW AS MOISTURE THINS OUT THERE LATEST. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014 AS A LO PRES DEEPENS NEAR JAMES BAY TODAY...EXPECT NNW GALES TO 35-40 KTS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO SAT MORNING OVER ALL BUT FAR WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. CONTINUED GALE WARNINGS ISSUED YESTERDAY. ISSUED GALE WARNINGS FOR THE LAKE MICHIGAN NEARSHORE WATERS AND THE NORTHERN BAY OF GREEN BAY AS AXIS OF HIGHEST WINDS WILL EXTEND INTO THAT AREA BY THIS EVENING BEFORE THE FREQUENT GALE FORCE GUSTS DIMINISH ON SAT MORNING. AS A HI PRES RIDGE APPROACHES FROM THE W ON SAT...THE STRONG WINDS WILL DIMINISH W-E. ALTHOUGH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE/SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK...NO STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... GALE WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 11 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LSZ266- 267. GALE WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LSZ244-245- 248-249-264-265. GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LSZ250-251. GALE WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ242-243-246-247-263. LAKE MICHIGAN... GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LMZ221-248-250. && $$ SHORT TERM...ROLFSON LONG TERM...KC AVIATION...ROLFSON MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON MS
1023 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014 .UPDATE...ONLY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS IN HOURLY AND MAX TEMPERATURES WERE MADE TO GOING FORECAST FOR TODAY. ALL OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS ARE ON TRACK. .DISCUSSION...DRY AIR CONTINUES TO RESIDE OVER THE REGION AND COUPLED WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXPECT ANOTHER SUNNY DAY ACROSS THE REGION. WITH SUCH DRY AIR IN PLACE, TEMPERATURES HAVE REBOUNDED QUICKLY WITH SOLID 4-6F DEGREE JUMPS PER HOUR THIS MORNING. HAVE BUMPED UP HOURLY TEMPS TO FOLLOW SUIT WITH RESULTANT EQUALING 1-2F DEGREE INCREASE IN MAX HIGHS FOR SELECT AREAS. NEW GFS LAMP GUIDANCE LOOKS TO HANDLE THIS WELL WITH FURTHER RAP SUPPORT INDICATING NEAR 21.5C H925 TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON. NO OTHER CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST FOR TODAY WERE MADE. UPDATES ARE OUT AND AN UPDATED AVIATION CAN BE FOUND DIRECTLY BELOW. /ALLEN/ && .AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN KHBG WHERE MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL DEVELOP IN FOG AFTER 18/06Z AND LINGER UNTIL AROUND 18/14Z./26/ && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014/ SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...A CLIPPER-TYPE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRIVE A DRY COLD FRONT TOWARD OUR REGION BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON TODAY. IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT PATCHY HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL STREAM OVERHEAD WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL WINDS HELPING BOOST TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL (INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S). THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT FRONT WILL BEGIN PUSHING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE WARMER THAN PAST NIGHTS CONSIDERING THE LOW LEVEL MIXING FACTOR WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING A GREAT DEAL. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE WHICH WILL ALSO HELP LIMIT COOLING SOMEWHAT. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL ENOUGH PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE COULD CONGREGATE TO BRING SOME PATCHY FOG TO SOUTHERN ZONES BY SATURDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS NOT EXPECTED. THE COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS THROUGH SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT SOLID COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LAG THE WIND SHIFT ENOUGH TO REALLY ONLY RESULT IN SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES IN NORTHERN ZONES. ELSEWHERE SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL ONLY BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN TODAY...ALTHOUGH NOT HOT BY ANY STRETCH. BUT EVERYBODY WILL FEEL THE COOL DOWN ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SINKS SOUTH AND POST-FRONTAL WINDS SLACK INTO THE EVENING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP INTO THE 40S IN MOST AREAS BY DAWN SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH PERHAPS NOT FALLING BELOW THE 50 DEGREE MARK IN FAR SOUTHERN ZONES. /BB/ LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS AUTUMN SEEMS TO FINALLY BE WANTING TO STAY AT LEAST FOR A LITTLE WHILE. FOLLOWING SATURDAYS FROPA...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN OVERHEAD FOR SUNDAY AND MOSTLY MONDAY...ALLOWING FOR GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES BUT REMAINING NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. READINGS WILL SLOWLY GET BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S. THE SFC HIGH WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST LATE MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND SFC LOW OVER MICHIGAN. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL DIVE SOUTH INTO OUR REGION TUESDAY. WITH LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...THIS SHOULD MAINLY BE A DRY FRONT THAT SHOULD BRING OUR TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN INTO THE 70S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AS WELL KEEPING CONDITIONS COOL AND DRY. UPPER RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES WILL EVENTUALLY TRY TO NOSE INTO OUR REGION AND MODELS SHOW A DRY PATTERN CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEKEND/LATE OCTOBER. /28/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... JACKSON 84 56 81 48 / 0 2 2 0 MERIDIAN 85 53 81 45 / 0 0 3 0 VICKSBURG 85 54 81 47 / 0 4 1 0 HATTIESBURG 85 57 85 51 / 0 1 4 2 NATCHEZ 83 58 81 51 / 0 1 2 1 GREENVILLE 85 55 75 48 / 0 5 1 0 GREENWOOD 84 53 76 46 / 0 5 1 0 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...NONE. LA...NONE. AR...NONE. && $$ ALLEN/26/BB/28
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAS VEGAS NV
900 AM PDT FRI OCT 17 2014 .SYNOPSIS...A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BRING HIGH CLOUDS AND VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS TO NORTHWEST ARIZONA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM DUE INTO THE AREA MID NEXT WEEK MAY BRING HIGH CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES BUT OTHERWISE DRY AND MILD WEATHER WILL PERSIST. && .UPDATE...CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS MOHAVE COUNTY BACK INTO EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY. RADAR ALSO DEPICTING LIGHT SHOWERS IN THAT AREA BUT SO FAR NOT SEEING ANY MEASURABLE RAIN REACHING ANY RAIN GAGES. HIGH CLOUD COVER WAS INCREASING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING PACIFIC TROUGH. I TWEAKED SKY COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST SATELLITE AND MODEL TRENDS...INCREASING SKY COVER TODAY AND TONIGHT OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALSO INCREASED POPS A LITTLE TO MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS A BIT FARTHER NORTH IN MOHAVE COUNTY TODAY...BASED ON LATEST HRRR AND LAST NIGHTS ECMWF. -HARRISON- && .PREV DISCUSSION... 210 AM PDT FRI OCT 17 2014 .SHORT TERM...THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WHICH HAS BEEN SPINNING OFF THE COAST OF NORTHWEST MEXICO HAS BEGUN TO EJECT NORTHEAST TOWARDS ARIZONA AND IS STREAMING A BROAD DECK OF HIGH CLOUD COVER ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 15. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY LIFT NORTHEAST WHILE WEAKENING AND WONT BE MUCH OF A FACTOR FOR OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER AFTER TODAY. BUT IN THE MEANTIME...WIDESPREAD HIGH CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLY SOME VIRGA SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS MOHAVE COUNTY. MEANWHILE AS THAT SYSTEM EXITS...A PACIFIC TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE WEST COAST, WITH THE ENERGY SPLITTING AS IT DOES SO. THE RESULT WILL BE A WEAK TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SATURDAY AND SLOWLY CLOSING OFF AS IT PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS ARIZONA ON SUNDAY. WHILE DYNAMICS WILL BE POOR...ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT FOR SOME VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS PRIMARILY THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF LINCOLN AND MOHAVE COUNTIES OVER THE WEEKEND. TRENDED POPS SIMILAR TO THAT OF THE SREF BUT NOT QUITE AS AGGRESSIVE, AS IT PAINTS POPS AS HIGH AS 50 PERCENT ACROSS EASTERN MOHAVE COUNTY SUNDAY EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO BECOME MARGINALLY UNSTABLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS BUT I KEPT THUNDER OUT OF THE GRIDS AS ANY LIGHTNING ACTIVITY WILL BE QUITE ISOLATED. .LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS PERSISTING OVER THE REGION THROUGH NEXT WEEK. WE WILL SEE ANOTHER OPEN PACIFIC TROUGH APPROACH THE WEST COAST MONDAY THEN MOVE INLAND AND SPLIT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH MOST OF THE ENERGY LIFTING NORTHEAST OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...ESPECIALLY OVER INYO COUNTY AND NEARBY WEST CENTRAL NEVADA. GUSTS SHOULD GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 35 MPH EXCEPT HIGHER OVER THE RIDGES OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA AND WHITE MOUNTAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE WEAKER SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND MOJAVE DESERT TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH VERY LIMITED MOISTURE BRUSHING THE SOUTHERN SIERRA AND SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN. MOISTURE APPEARS TOO SPARSE TO MENTION ANY CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN OUR FORECAST AREA. THE TROUGH THEN MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND IS REPLACED BY A RIDGE EXPANDING FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST STATES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP TEMPS RUNNING A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL WITH ONLY SLIGHT LOWER TEMPS WHEN THE TROUGH PASSES TUESDAY. && .AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SCT-BKN SKIES AOA 25KFT WILL PREVAIL ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AIRFIELD TODAY. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS AOB 9KTS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH GUSTS MAY OCCASIONALLY EXCEED 9KTS FOR BRIEF PERIODS. FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA WITH BKN CLOUD COVER PREVAILING SOUTH OF A KNXP-KIFP-KGCN-KAZC LINE. SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT AND VIRGA POSSIBLE AS WELL THIS AFTERNOON. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED. && $$ SHORT TERM/AVIATION...OUTLER LONG TERM...ADAIR FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE: HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
915 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 915 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014 FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND ONLY CHANGES WERE TO BLEND CURRENT OBS TO FORECAST. MAIN ISSUE TODAY WILL BE CLOUD COVER AND WHEN CLEARING WILL OCCUR. WATER VAPOR CONTINUES TO SHOW WEAK SHORTWAVE ENTERING WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...SUPPORTING ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER WITH REMAINDER OF STATE OVERCAST PER 11-3.9 IMAGERY AND EARLY MORNING VIS IMAGERY AND OBS. SOME DISCREPANCY BETWEEN MODELS WITH REGARD TO TIMING OF CLEARING WITH GFS/MAV MUCH MORE OPTIMISTIC THAN NAM/HRRR GUIDANCE. WILL CONTINUE THE SLOWER CLEARING THAT IS ALREADY DEPICTED IN FORECAST GRIDS. NAM/HRRR ARE INDICATING CLOUDS LINGERING IN CENTRAL/EASTERN ND WELL INTO NIGHT. WILL SEE HOW TRENDS DEVELOP TODAY BEFORE ADJUSTING SKY TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...WINDS ARE STILL GUSTY CENTRAL/EAST BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY TAPER DOWN DURING THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014 LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. A FEW BREAKS IN THE LOWER MVFR CEILINGS IN THE WEST IS BEING COVERED BY A BAND OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON SKY COVER THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS SO NO UPDATES NEEDED HERE. ONLY CHANGES WERE TO UPDATE LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014 LATEST SUITE OF SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY CONDITIONS COVERING JUST ABOUT ALL OF WESTERN/CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SOUTHWEST. NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND THE LATEST HRRR CEILING FORECAST KEEP A NEARLY SATURATED LAYER...ALBEIT SHALLOW...FROM 900MB TO 850MB ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY. THE WEST WILL SEE A RETURN TO A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY BY LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE IS NOT AS DEEP AND SUBSIDENCE/DRYING OCCURS BEHIND A DEPARTING SHORTWAVE THIS AFTERNOON. A H85 COLD POCKET OF 0C TO +2C SLIDES INTO THE EAST CENTRAL ZONES TODAY KEEPING UNSTABLE CONDITIONS IN PLACE AS STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE 925-H85 LAYER ARE MAINTAINED FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS SOUTH INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. THUS WITH THE EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS UPSTREAM PER FOG/STRATUS IMAGERY LOOP...IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE LATEST TIME HEIGHT RH CROSS SECTIONS...CLOUDS/BRISK WINDS WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE CLEARING BEGINS TO TAKE PLACE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S NORTH AND EAST TO LOWER 50S SOUTHWEST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS TWO SHORTWAVES...THE FIRST WAS SHORTWAVE WAS CIRCULATING OVER NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA...AND THIS IS FORECAST TO SLIDE INTO SOUTHEAST MONTANA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS LACKING FOR ANYTHING MUCH MORE THAN CLOUDS THROUGH THE MORNING IN THE SOUTHWEST...THEN AS MENTIONED ABOVE SOME CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SHORTWAVE. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL/NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN...AND THIS IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF NORTH DAKOTA TODAY AS IT MOVES INTO MANITOBA AND MINNESOTA. DECREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS 30 TO 35F. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014 THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL NOT BE UNTIL THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIMEFRAME NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS THIS WEEKEND FOR A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. SOUTHERLY WINDS SATURDAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE 50S CENTRAL TO THE LOWER 60S WEST. ON SUNDAY A WEAK FRONT WILL BRING NORTHWEST WINDS AT 10 TO 15 MPH...BUT THE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT IS MILD PACIFIC AIR AND HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE STATE. MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 60S NORTHEAST TO LOWER 70S SOUTHWEST. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES...PUTTING THE DAKOTAS UNDER A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL BRING SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. CURRENTLY THE MODEL BLEND SOLUTION BRINGS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO THE WEST WEDNESDAY...AND CENTRAL/EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LATEST DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN WEAKER/DRIER WITH THIS FEATURE...WITH THE MAIN ENERGY ALOFT LIFTING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...COULD SEE A DRY FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURES COOL ONLY SLIGHTLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BUT IT WILL REMAIN MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014 LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A LARGE SWATH OF MVFR CIGS OVER THE AERODROMES...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. EXPECTING KMOT/KBIS/KJMS TO REMAIN IN MVFR STATUS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. KISN WILL BEGIN TO SEE IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR BY 17Z FRIDAY...AND KDIK BY 19Z FRIDAY. GUSTY NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TO 30KT WILL CONTINUE AT KJMS THROUGH 21Z FRIDAY. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JNS SHORT TERM...KS LONG TERM...TWH AVIATION...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
639 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014 LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. A FEW BREAKS IN THE LOWER MVFR CEILINGS IN THE WEST IS BEING COVERED BY A BAND OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON SKY COVER THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS SO NO UPDATES NEEDED HERE. ONLY CHANGES WERE TO UPDATE LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014 LATEST SUITE OF SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY CONDITIONS COVERING JUST ABOUT ALL OF WESTERN/CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SOUTHWEST. NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND THE LATEST HRRR CEILING FORECAST KEEP A NEARLY SATURATED LAYER...ALBEIT SHALLOW...FROM 900MB TO 850MB ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY. THE WEST WILL SEE A RETURN TO A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY BY LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE IS NOT AS DEEP AND SUBSIDENCE/DRYING OCCURS BEHIND A DEPARTING SHORTWAVE THIS AFTERNOON. A H85 COLD POCKET OF 0C TO +2C SLIDES INTO THE EAST CENTRAL ZONES TODAY KEEPING UNSTABLE CONDITIONS IN PLACE AS STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE 925-H85 LAYER ARE MAINTAINED FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS SOUTH INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. THUS WITH THE EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS UPSTREAM PER FOG/STRATUS IMAGERY LOOP...IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE LATEST TIME HEIGHT RH CROSS SECTIONS...CLOUDS/BRISK WINDS WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE CLEARING BEGINS TO TAKE PLACE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S NORTH AND EAST TO LOWER 50S SOUTHWEST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS TWO SHORTWAVES...THE FIRST WAS SHORTWAVE WAS CIRCULATING OVER NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA...AND THIS IS FORECAST TO SLIDE INTO SOUTHEAST MONTANA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS LACKING FOR ANYTHING MUCH MORE THAN CLOUDS THROUGH THE MORNING IN THE SOUTHWEST...THEN AS MENTIONED ABOVE SOME CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SHORTWAVE. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL/NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN...AND THIS IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF NORTH DAKOTA TODAY AS IT MOVES INTO MANITOBA AND MINNESOTA. DECREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS 30 TO 35F. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014 THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL NOT BE UNTIL THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIMEFRAME NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS THIS WEEKEND FOR A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. SOUTHERLY WINDS SATURDAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE 50S CENTRAL TO THE LOWER 60S WEST. ON SUNDAY A WEAK FRONT WILL BRING NORTHWEST WINDS AT 10 TO 15 MPH...BUT THE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT IS MILD PACIFIC AIR AND HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE STATE. MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 60S NORTHEAST TO LOWER 70S SOUTHWEST. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES...PUTTING THE DAKOTAS UNDER A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL BRING SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. CURRENTLY THE MODEL BLEND SOLUTION BRINGS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO THE WEST WEDNESDAY...AND CENTRAL/EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LATEST DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN WEAKER/DRIER WITH THIS FEATURE...WITH THE MAIN ENERGY ALOFT LIFTING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...COULD SEE A DRY FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURES COOL ONLY SLIGHTLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BUT IT WILL REMAIN MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014 LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A LARGE SWATH OF MVFR CIGS OVER THE AERODROMES...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. EXPECTING KMOT/KBIS/KJMS TO REMAIN IN MVFR STATUS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. KISN WILL BEGIN TO SEE IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR BY 17Z FRIDAY...AND KDIK BY 19Z FRIDAY. GUSTY NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TO 30KT WILL CONTINUE AT KJMS THROUGH 21Z FRIDAY. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...TWH SHORT TERM...KS LONG TERM...TWH AVIATION...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
556 AM MDT FRI OCT 17 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 349 AM MDT FRI OCT 17 2014 THE VERY NICE FALL WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAK FRONT HAS BACKED ACROSS THE PLAINS AND TEMPS ARE CHILLY WITH MANY LOCATIONS IN THE LOW-TO-MID 30S. STRATUS IS CURRENTLY ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE HRRR PUSHES THE LOW CLOUDS INTO THE FAR EASTERN ZONES BY SUNRISE...HOWEVER BELIEVE IT MAY BE A BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE. A DROP IN TEMPS OF 5-10 DEGREES WILL BE SEE TODAY ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S AS OPPOSED TO THE 70S FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS. HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE ON SAT WITH WARM ADVECTION. TEMPS WILL BE BACK UP INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE BREEZY DURING THE AFTN OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AS PRESSURE FALLS OCCUR OVER EASTERN MT DURING THE DAY. WEAK SHORTWAVE PUSHES FROM MT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SAT NIGHT. OTHER THAN DRAGGING A WEAK COOL FRONT OVER THE PANHANDLE ON SUN MORNING...THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE VERY LITTLE EFFECT ON THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD ON SUN FOR A CONTINUATION OF THE TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 349 AM MDT FRI OCT 17 2014 DRY AND MILD TO START OFF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES MONDAY WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT INTO THE PLAINS WITH A TROUGH TO PUSH INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY MID WEEK. TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS INTO THE 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 60S INTO THE WEST. TUESDAY COULD BE VERY WARM FOR THE LATER PORTIONS OF OCTOBER. MAY SEE RECORD HIGHS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA ASSUMING HIGH CLOUDS ARE NOT TOO EXTENSIVE AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE WEDNESDAY BASED ON CURRENT MODEL TIMING. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE IN THE FORM OF LIQUID...AND THAT MAY ALSO HOLD TRUE FOR THE MOUNTAINS AS THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF COLD AIR FROM THIS PACIFIC SYSTEM. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 534 AM MDT FRI OCT 17 2014 A POCKET OF LOW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP BRIEFLY THIS MORNING OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE BUT AS OF 12Z A MAJORITY OF THE CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA. SO OTHER THAN SOME MORNING LOW CLOUDS...VFR WILL BE FOUND THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. && .FIRE WEATHER... ISSUED AT 249 AM MDT FRI OCT 17 2014 NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES COOLER TODAY FOR AREAS TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. MINIMUM AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE TO THE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. WITH WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS...WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 15 MPH THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...FINCH LONG TERM...SML AVIATION...SML FIRE WEATHER...FINCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
431 PM MDT FRI OCT 17 2014 .SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 124 PM MDT FRI OCT 17 2014 EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW NW FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH A RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST US. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS MOVING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH HIGH CLOUD COVER STREAMING NORTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS OUR CWA. A RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH WEST- NORTHWEST FLOW OVER OUR CWA AND ANY WEAK LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH REMAINING WELL SOUTH OF THE CWA. THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BRING INCREASING HIGH CLOUD COVER AND INCREASING WINDS. AS THE FLOW SHIFTS TO MORE OF A WESTERLY DIRECTION ACROSS THE ROCKIES A LEE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DEEPEN WHICH WILL RESULT IN A TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER OUR CWA AND BREEZY WINDS DURING THE DAY. WE WILL ALSO START TO SE A SLIGHT MODERATION IN THE AIR MASS OVER THE WESTERN CWA...WHICH MAY ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPS SATURDAY TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 70S IN THE WEST...THOUGH MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN SEASONAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S. MODELS ARE ADVERTISING TD RECOVERY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AND ELEVATED INVERSION LIMITING MIXING SO WE SHOULD SEE RH VALUES REMAIN WELL ABOVE RED FLAG CRITERIA. SO DESPITE WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 217 PM MDT FRI OCT 17 2014 A LARGE RIDGE WILL BE AMPLIFYING ALOFT OVER THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS REGION ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALSO IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION DURING THIS TIME. A SURFACE LEE TROUGH WILL BE DEEPENING OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS AND A TROUGH OF LOWER PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE SURFACE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS THE THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WHILE DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ON THURSDAY FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT WHEN DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE COOLER...BUT STILL NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE ECMWF DEEPENING A CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY FRIDAY INSTEAD OF MOVING IT EAST AS AN OPEN TROUGH AS THE GFS DOES. EITHER WAY...IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE AT LEAST WEAK UPPER RIDGING OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND FOR MORE DRY CONDITIONS AND WARM TEMPERATURES. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 430 PM MDT FRI OCT 17 2014 KGLD AND KMCK...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. GENERALLY MID AND UPPER CLOUDS EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS. SURFACE HIGH CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS FORECAST TO SLIDE EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING ALONG THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE. THIS WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS GUSTING FROM 15Z-23Z AT KGLD...PEAKING AROUND 25KTS IN THE 18Z-22Z TIMEFRAME. OTHERWISE LGT/VRB WINDS AT TAF ISSUANCE EXPECTED TO VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 09Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH 14Z. FOR KMCK LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND AT TAF ISSUANCE EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT FROM THE EAST AROUND 11Z THEN SOUTHEAST NEAR 10KTS BY 16Z. SOME GUSTINESS TO 20KTS EXPECTED AROUND 21Z-22Z. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DR LONG TERM...LOCKHART AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
301 PM MDT FRI OCT 17 2014 .SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 124 PM MDT FRI OCT 17 2014 EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW NW FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH A RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST US. A SHORT WAVE TROUGHIS MOVING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH HIGH CLOUD COVER STREAMING NORTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS OUR CWA. A RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH WEST- NORTHWEST FLOW OVER OUR CWA AND ANY WEAK LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH REMAINING WELL SOUTH OF THE CWA. THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BRING INCREASING HIGH CLOUD COVER AND INCREASING WINDS. AS THE FLOW SHIFTS TO MORE OF A WESTERLY DIRECTION ACROSS THE ROCKIES A LEE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DEEPEN WHICH WILL RESULT IN A TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER OUR CWA AND BREEZY WINDS DURING THE DAY. WE WILL ALSO START TO SE A SLIGHT MODERATION IN THE AIR MASS OVER THE WESTERN CWA...WHICH MAY ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPS SATURDAY TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 70S IN THE WEST...THOUGH MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN SEASONAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S. MODELS ARE ADVERTISING TD RECOVERY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AND ELEVATED INVERSION LIMITING MIXING SO WE SHOULD SEE RH VALUES REMAIN WELL ABOVE RED FLAG CRITERIA. SO DESPITE WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 217 PM MDT FRI OCT 17 2014 A LARGE RIDGE WILL BE AMPLIFYING ALOFT OVER THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS REGION ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALSO IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION DURING THIS TIME. A SURFACE LEE TROUGH WILL BE DEEPENING OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS AND A TROUGH OF LOWER PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE SURFACE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS THE THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WHILE DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ON THURSDAY FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT WHEN DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE COOLER...BUT STILL NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE ECMWF DEEPENING A CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY FRIDAY INSTEAD OF MOVING IT EAST AS AN OPEN TROUGH AS THE GFS DOES. EITHER WAY...IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE AT LEAST WEAK UPPER RIDGING OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND FOR MORE DRY CONDITIONS AND WARM TEMPERATURES. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1132 AM MDT FRI OCT 17 2014 VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK. LIGHT WINDS 5-10KT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH TERMINALS AS WEAK SURFACE GRADIENT LINGERS OVER SW NEBRASKA AND NW KANSAS. LEE TROUGH OVER EASTERN COLORADO WILL DEEPEN SATURDAY MORNING...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASING. GUSTY WINDS AROUND 20KT WILL DEVELOP AT KGLD AROUND 15KT. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 12KT AT KMCK. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DR LONG TERM...LOCKHART AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
124 PM MDT FRI OCT 17 2014 .SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 124 PM MDT FRI OCT 17 2014 EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW NW FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH A RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST US. A SHORTWAVETROUGH IS MOVING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH HIGH CLOUD COVER STREAMING NORTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS OUR CWA. A RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH WEST- NORTHWEST FLOW OVER OUR CWA AND ANY WEAK LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH REMAINING WELL SOUTH OF THE CWA. THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BRING INCREASING HIGH CLOUD COVER AND INCREASING WINDS. AS THE FLOW SHIFTS TO MORE OF A WESTERLY DIRECTION ACROSS THE ROCKIES A LEE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DEEPEN WHICH WILL RESULT IN A TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER OUR CWA AND BREEZY WINDS DURING THE DAY. WE WILL ALSO START TO SE A SLIGHT MODERATION IN THE AIR MASS OVER THE WESTERN CWA...WHICH MAY ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPS SATURDAY TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 70S IN THE WEST...THOUGH MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN SEASONAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S. MODELS ARE ADVERTISING TD RECOVERY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AND ELEVATED INVERSION LIMITING MIXING SO WE SHOULD SEE RH VALUES REMAIN WELL ABOVE RED FLAG CRITERIA. SO DESPITE WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 212 AM MDT FRI OCT 17 2014 A LARGE AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS ON MONDAY...BRINGING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AS WELL...FALLING TO THE MID TO UPPER 40S. THE NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE MID WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS. MODEL GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH POSITION OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE THURSDAY AFTER THE SURFACE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THERE IS SOME SLIGHT INSTABILITY ALOFT WITH CAPE VALUES AROUND OR LESS THAN 300 J/KG...SO THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE RAIN SHOWERS AS MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FILTERS INTO THE HIGH PLAINS REGION TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1132 AM MDT FRI OCT 17 2014 VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK. LIGHT WINDS 5-10KT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH TERMINALS AS WEAK SURFACE GRADIENT LINGERS OVER SW NEBRASKA AND NW KANSAS. LEE TROUGH OVER EASTERN COLORADO WILL DEEPEN SATURDAY MORNING...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASING. GUSTY WINDS AROUND 20KT WILL DEVELOP AT KGLD AROUND 15KT. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 12KT AT KMCK. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DR LONG TERM...MK AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
456 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON SATURDAY AND CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... 435 PM UPDATE...LIGHTNING STRIKES SHOWING UP PER THE LATEST LIGHTNING DETECTION. ALSO SEEING SOME ENHANCED ECHO TOPS ALONG W/THE THREAT FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS. FREEZING LEVELS DROPPED TO 10K FT. DECIDED TO ADD GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON W/ANY TSTMS. SHOWERS AND ANY REMAINING CONVECTION SHOULD BE EAST OF THE CWA BY 8 PM PER THE LATEST HRRR 3KM MODEL AND NAM12. SEE AVIATION SECTION. WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S DOWNEAST. A RATHER POTENT SHORT WAVE TROF IS FORECASTED TO CROSS THE REGION LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING SHOWERS TO MUCH OF THE REGION DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT ONE LAST UNSEASONABLY MILD DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE REGION. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... THE MILD WEATHER IS COMING TO AN END LATE THIS WEEKEND AND SOME MUCH CHILLIER AIR IS COMING IN. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY EVENING WITH SOME SHOWERS LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTH, ESPECIALLY UP IN THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY. COOLER AIR WILL THEN BEGIN SPREADING IN FROM THE NORTH FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH ON SUNDAY WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. A WET SNOW SHOWER IS EVEN POSSIBLE IN WESTERN ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1200 FT. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL THEN BRING BLUSTERY AND CHILLY CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT DIPPING BELOW FREEZING IN MANY SPOTS AND HIGHS MONDAY ONLY IN THE 40S NORTH AND NEAR 50 DOWNEAST. OTHERWISE, STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WILL KEEP NORTHERN AREAS MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH THE DOWNEAST REGION EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY ON SUNDAY. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THERE WILL BE A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE STATE. A LOW EXITING THE AREA TO THE EAST OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...AND A NEW LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. BY TUESDAY EVENING THE LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKE WILL MOVE TO THE COAST OF VIRGINIA...THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST. WED MRNG THE LOW BEGINS TO MOVE NORTH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE GFS HAS IT ALONG THE COAST OF NJ...ECMWF ALONG THE COAST OF DELMARVA WITH A SECONDARY LOW SE OF CAPE COD...THE GEM OFF THE ERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND. THE DIFFERENCES IN THE LOW POSITIONS REFLECT THE DIFFERENCES IN THE DEPICTION OF THE EXTEND TO THE PRECIP BANDS. THE GFS BRINGS PCPN INTO THE PORTLAND AREA...THE ECMWF AND GEM INTO THE BAR HARBOR AREA. BY WED EVNG THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AGAIN WITH PCPN SPREAD ACROSS ALL BUT THE CROWN OF MAINE. ALL THREE SHOW A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST WITH MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE POSITION OF THE LOW...AS WELL AS A SUPPORTING CLOSE LOW AT 500 MB. ALL ARE SHOWING A SFC LOW THAT IS BEGINNING TO GO COLD CORE. THE TREND CONTINUES INTO FRI...COLD CORE LOW ALONG THE EAST COAST WITH THE OCCLUDED FRONT WRAPPED AROUND THE LOW...ACROSS MAINE. BY FRI EVNG THE LOW BEGINS TO MOVE NE TOWARDS THE BAY OF FUNDY. AT THE END OF THE PERIOD THE COLD CORE LOW WILL BE OVER ERN NOVA SCOTIA. LOADED THE SUPERBLEND...NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS. ADDED 15 PERCENT TO THE WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT OVER WATER. && .AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NEAR TERM: UPDATE...ISSUED AN AVIATION WEATHER WARNING FOR BGR(BIA). SOME CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE DETECTED IN THE VICINITY OF THE AIRPORT AND ANOTHER CELL IS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST, BUT WEAKENING PER THE LAST RADAR SCAN. THOUGHT IT WOULD BE FOR SAFETY TO CARRY THE WARNING THROUGH 5 PM. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WHICH COULD RESULT IN LCL BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IFR ACROSS THE NORTH AND MVFR TO VFR DOWNEAST. VFR CONDITIONS DOWNEAST AND MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED DOWNEAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH. WEST WINDS WILL LIKELY BE GUSTY ON MONDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY. LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO AFFECT THE WATERS LATER SATURDAY. SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED SATURDAY EVENING. AN SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS GUSTY COLD WEST WINDS MOVE IN. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ050>052. && $$ NEAR TERM...DUDA/HEWITT SHORT TERM...BLOOMER LONG TERM...NORTON AVIATION...DUDA/HEWITT/BLOOMER MARINE...DUDA/HEWITT/BLOOMER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
350 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014 ...A COOL WET AND WINDY EVENING WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY... WV LOOP AND IR SATELLITE AND NWS REGIONAL RADAR AND CANADIAN RADAR LOOPS SHOWING AN EXPANDED AREA OF RAIN SWEEPING NORTH TO SOUTH OVER UPPER GREAT LAKES. BASED ON SFC OBS...APPEARS BACK EDGE OF RAIN IS OVR CENTRAL LK SUPERIOR ENE INTO ADJACENT AREAS OF ONTARIO. PRIMARY SFC LOW IS NOW JUST SOUTH OF JAMES BAY AT AROUND 990MB. NORTH WINDS OVER THE REGION ARE GUSTING OVER 30 MPH OVER MUCH OF LK SUPERIOR AND OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN UPR MICHIGAN...WITH 20-30 MPH GUSTS FARTHER INLAND AND TOWARD LK MICHIGAN. BASED ON UPSTREAM TRENDS...SHORT TERM MODEL FORECASTS FM NAM/GEM-REGIONAL SEEM IN GOOD SHAPE..AND HAVE LEANED ON THOSE ALONG WITH THE HRRR FOR DETAILS IN THE NEXT 12-15 HRS. EXPECT A PERIOD OF RAIN AND STRONG WINDS THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE PRECIP DIMINISHES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE ABOVE H9 DIMINISHES SHARPLY. EVEN WITH THE DECREASE IN MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE...ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN INTO MUCH OF SATURDAY ALONG WITH A NNW LOW-LEVEL FLOW BTWN DEPARTING LOW AND APPROACHING SFC HIGH. LAKE ENHANCED PRECIP THIS EVENING /DELTA T/S AROUND 8C GIVEN SUFFICIENT LARGE SCALE MOISTURE AND LIFT/ SHOULD TRANSITION TO PURE LAKE EFFECT SINCE THERE IS JUST ENOUGH OVER-WATER INSTABILITY PRESENT AS TEMPS AT INVERSION TOP 900-875MB FALL TO -5C AFTER 09Z WHILE WATER TEMPS ON AVERAGE ARE AROUND +8C /PROVIDING DELTA T/S OF 13C/. BASED ON SOUNDINGS...ANY SNOW POTENTIAL IS BASED ON EXTENT OF WARMING IN LOWEST PARTS OF THE BLYR. THUS CONTINUED TO USE WBZERO HEIGHTS TO DETERMINE THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW. APPEARS THAT HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF WEST AND CNTRL CWA SEE THE BEST CHANCES FOR SOME SNOW...BUT WITHOUT DEEPER MOISTURE/LIFTING OCCURRING...SEEMS THAT TEMPS IN MOIST LAYER MAY NOT BE AS LOW AS -8C OR -10C...SUGGESTING THERE MAY NOT BE ICE CRYSTALS INTRODUCED FM ALOFT TO LEAD TO BETTER CHANCES OF SNOW. A WEAK WAVE ALOFT CURRENTLY DROPPING SE OVER CNTRL MANITOBA MAY PUSH ACROSS WEST CWA LATER TONIGHT RESULTING IN A BIT OF ADDITIONAL H7-H5 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND LIFT TO HELP OUT THE CAUSE. EVEN IMPACT FM THAT APPEARS MINIMAL ATTM. OVERALL...CHANCES OF MEASURABLE SNOW APPEAR MINIMAL WITH THIS SYSTEM. SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH INVERSION AT H85-H8 ON SATURDAY. KEPT IN SMALL POPS FOR LAKE EFFECT AS SETUP IS NOT ALL THAT DIFFERENT FM LATE TONIGHT. GRADUALLY...AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA...EXPECT BLYR TO DRY OUT BLO CLOUD BASE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN ANY LGT PRECIP COMING TO AN END. TEMPS WILL BE CHILLY AS LOW-LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH IS OVERHEAD. EXPECT MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 30S...EXCEPT SOME LOW 40S OVER SCNTRL CWA. ADDED TO THE CHILL WILL BE CONTINUING GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS... STRONGEST NEAR LK SUPERIOR OVER THE EAST CWA IN THE MORNING. LIKELY THE BIGGEST POTENTIAL IMPACT FM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WINDS AND WAVE ACTION ALONG LK SUPERIOR. GIVEN THE HIGH WATER LEVELS ON LAKE SUPERIOR WHICH ARE THE HIGHEST SINCE THE MID 1990S AND WAVES BUILDING TO 8-12 FEET INTO THIS EVENING AND THROUGH TONIGHT (HIGHEST E OF THE KEWEENAW)...MINOR BEACH EROSION AND LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ON THE BEACHES FROM AROUND MARQUETTE TO GRAND MARAIS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MENTIONED IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND THE GRAPHICAL EHWO. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 307 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014 NAM SHOWS A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. 00Z SUN. THERE IS A SHORTWAVE OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES 00Z SUN THAT AFFECTS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE ON SUN. A 500 MB RIDGE THEN BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS ON MON. NAM SHOWS SOME DEEPER MOISTURE AND 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE MOVING INTO THE AREA LATE SUN AND THEN MOVING OUT ON MON. NAM SHOWS SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE ON I290K-I305K SURFACES MOVING INTO THE AREA SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE MOVING OUT ON MON. WILL KEEP SOME LOW CHANCE POPS SUN MORNING GRADUALLY SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA SUN AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AND THEN DRYING OUT LATE MONDAY. DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURES OR THE WEATHER AS THE FORECAST HAD THINGS WELL IN HAND. IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB TROUGH ON THE WEST COAST 12Z TUE WITH A RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS AND A TROUGH IN THE ERN U.S. THE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z WED INTO 12Z THU WITH RIDGING STAYING IN PLACE INTO FRI. THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE DRY WITH A WARMING TREND WITH TEMPERATURES GOING ABOVE NORMAL. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 153 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014 INCREASING NORTHERLY UPSLOPE WINDS AND EXPANDING PCPN WILL LEAD TO IFR OR LOWER MVFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE STRENGTHENING NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST AT KSAW THIS AFTN/EVENING WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 30KT. AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FLOW INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT... CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR AT ALL TERMINALS WITH PCPN DIMINISHING OR ENDING. IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR FIRST AT KCMX AND LAST AT KSAW AS MOISTURE THINS OUT THERE LATEST. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014 GALES 35-40 KTS REMAIN ON TRACK OVER LK SUPERIOR THROUGH TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS SOUTHEAST OF JAMES BAY. WINDS JUST STARTING TO INCREASE ON BAY OF GREEN BAY AND LK MICHIGAN AND EXPECT FREQUENT GALE GUSTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT THERE. AS A HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY AFTN...STRONG WINDS WILL DIMINISH WEST TO EAST. ALTHOUGH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE/SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK...NO STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LSZ266-267. GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LSZ244-245-248-249-264- 265. GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LSZ250-251. GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ242-243-246-247- 263. LAKE MICHIGAN... GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LMZ221-248-250. && $$ SHORT TERM...JLA LONG TERM...07 AVIATION...JLA MARINE...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
308 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 536 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW THAT THE STRONG SHORTWAVE THAT WAS OVER MT 24HRS AGO IS NOW A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR KDLH WITH ASSOCIATED SFC LOW NEAR KIWD. SO FAR...PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE HAS MOSTLY BEEN NOTHING MORE THAN SCT. ONE ARC OF PCPN IS NEARING KIWD AS OF 09Z. MID LEVEL LOW THAT HAS PLAGUED THE GREAT LAKES IN RECENT DAYS IS SHIFTING N IN RESPONSE TO THE UPSTREAM WAVE AND IS NOW CENTERED JUST NE OF GEORGIAN BAY. LARGE AREA OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS BACKING W THRU NRN ONTARIO TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR. CLOSER TO HOME...IT`S BEEN A QUIET NIGHT ACROSS UPPER MI UNDER A BLANKET OF LOW CLOUDS OVER ALL BUT THE FAR W. SOME FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...AND SPOTTY -DZ HAS BEEN NOTED. AS SYSTEM NEAR KDLH TRACKS SE INTO LWR MI BY EVENING...IT WILL ENTRAIN SOME OF THE MOISTURE BACKING W ACROSS NRN ONTARIO. THE DEEPENING MOISTURE PROFILE COMBINED WITH FORCING PROVIDED BY THE WAVE WILL RESULT IN EXPANSION OF PCPN ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES TODAY. PCPN WILL BECOME MOST WIDESPREAD ACROSS NRN UPPER MI DUE TO STRENGTHENING NRLY UPSLOPE FLOW AND EVENTUALLY A WEAK LAKE ENHANCEMENT COMPONENT AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TO 0C BY 00Z. WITH DEVELOPMENT OF MORE WIDESPREAD PCPN AND STRENGTHENING NRLY WINDS...TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO FALL THIS AFTN...SETTLING INTO THE LWR 40S BY EVENING ACROSS THE N AND W. TONIGHT...DEEP MOISTURE LINGERS IN THE EVENING...PROVIDING CONTINUED UPSLOPE FLOW/LAKE ENHANCED PCPN OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. UTILIZING WET BULB HEIGHTS...MAY SEE A LITTLE SNOW MIX WITH THE RAIN OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE KEWEENAW AND FROM THE HURON MTNS TOWARD IRON RIVER BY LATE EVENING AS WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS FALL BLO 1500FT AGL IN THOSE AREAS. OVERNIGHT...THERE IS EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT ON VERY PRONOUNCED DRYING FROM THE NW BEGINNING ROUGHLY AROUND 06Z. INVERSION CRASHES TO AROUND 3KFT. WITH TEMPS IN THE SHALLOW MOIST LAYER -5 TO -7C AT THE LOWEST...IT`S VERY POSSIBLE PCPN WILL COMPLETELY SHUTDOWN OR NEARLY SHUTDOWN FROM W TO E OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING AS SUFFICIENTLY WARM WATER TO REACH THE LAKE EFFECT THRESHOLD ONLY EXISTS CLOSE TO THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THUS...IN EFFECT...THERE IS ONLY A SHORT FETCH. THE VERY NOTABLE DECREASE IN PCPN COVERAGE ON ALL MODEL GUIDANCE CERTAINLY REFLECTS THIS POSSIBILITY. FOR NOW...GRIDS WILL SHOW LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS IN THE EVENING ACROSS THE N FALLING TO CHC OVERNIGHT...LOWEST W. IN THE INTERIOR AWAY FROM AREAS FAVORED BY NNW UPSLOPE...SCT SHRA IN THE EVENING WILL END OVERNIGHT. WITH WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS CONTINUING TO FALL...MORE OF THE LINGERING PCPN WILL MIX WITH OR EVEN CHANGE TO SNOW WHERE MOISTURE STILL EXTENDS TO THE -10C OR LWR ISOTHERM. GIVEN THE RAPID DECREASE IN PCPN COVERAGE/INTENSITY DURING THE OVERNIGHT...NOT EXPECTING ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION. ON A FINAL NOTE...WITH STRONGER WINDS OF 30-40KT CENTERED AROUND 2KFT ARRIVING THIS AFTN COMBINED WITH WEAK CAA...WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY THIS AFTN...AT FIRST NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT EVENTUALLY OVER MUCH OF THE FCST AREA. EXPECT STRONGEST WINDS GUSTING TO 35-40MPH CLOSER TO LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY E OF THE KEWEENAW FROM MARQUETTE TO GRAND MARAIS WHERE THE STRONGER CORE OF WINDS IS NOTED IN MODEL GUIDANCE. WIND GUSTS INLAND AND CLOSER TO LAKE MICHIGAN WILL BE UP TO AROUND 30MPH. GIVEN THE HIGH WATER LEVELS ON LAKE SUPERIOR (HIGHEST SINCE THE MID 1990S) AND WAVES BUILDING TO 8-12 FEET LATE IN THE DAY INTO TONIGHT (HIGHEST E OF THE KEWEENAW)... MINOR BEACH EROSION/FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ON THE BEACHES FROM AROUND MARQUETTE TO GRAND MARAIS. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 307 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014 NAM SHOWS A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. 00Z SUN. THERE IS A SHORTWAVE OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES 00Z SUN THAT AFFECTS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE ON SUN. A 500 MB RIDGE THEN BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS ON MON. NAM SHOWS SOME DEEPER MOISTURE AND 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE MOVING INTO THE AREA LATE SUN AND THEN MOVING OUT ON MON. NAM SHOWS SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE ON I290K-I305K SURFACES MOVING INTO THE AREA SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE MOVING OUT ON MON. WILL KEEP SOME LOW CHANCE POPS SUN MORNING GRADUALLY SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA SUN AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AND THEN DRYING OUT LATE MONDAY. DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURES OR THE WEATHER AS THE FORECAST HAD THINGS WELL IN HAND. IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB TROUGH ON THE WEST COAST 12Z TUE WITH A RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS AND A TROUGH IN THE ERN U.S. THE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z WED INTO 12Z THU WITH RIDGING STAYING IN PLACE INTO FRI. THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE DRY WITH A WARMING TREND WITH TEMPERATURES GOING ABOVE NORMAL. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 153 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014 INCREASING NORTHERLY UPSLOPE WINDS AND EXPANDING PCPN WILL LEAD TO IFR OR LOWER MVFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE STRENGTHENING NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST AT KSAW THIS AFTN/EVENING WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 30KT. AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FLOW INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT... CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR AT ALL TERMINALS WITH PCPN DIMINISHING OR ENDING. IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR FIRST AT KCMX AND LAST AT KSAW AS MOISTURE THINS OUT THERE LATEST. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014 AS A LO PRES DEEPENS NEAR JAMES BAY TODAY...EXPECT NNW GALES TO 35-40 KTS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO SAT MORNING OVER ALL BUT FAR WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. CONTINUED GALE WARNINGS ISSUED YESTERDAY. ISSUED GALE WARNINGS FOR THE LAKE MICHIGAN NEARSHORE WATERS AND THE NORTHERN BAY OF GREEN BAY AS AXIS OF HIGHEST WINDS WILL EXTEND INTO THAT AREA BY THIS EVENING BEFORE THE FREQUENT GALE FORCE GUSTS DIMINISH ON SAT MORNING. AS A HI PRES RIDGE APPROACHES FROM THE W ON SAT...THE STRONG WINDS WILL DIMINISH W-E. ALTHOUGH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE/SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK...NO STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LSZ266-267. GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LSZ244-245-248-249-264- 265. GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LSZ250-251. GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ242-243-246-247- 263. LAKE MICHIGAN... GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LMZ221-248-250. && $$ SHORT TERM...ROLFSON LONG TERM...07 AVIATION...JLA MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
157 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 536 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW THAT THE STRONG SHORTWAVE THAT WAS OVER MT 24HRS AGO IS NOW A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR KDLH WITH ASSOCIATED SFC LOW NEAR KIWD. SO FAR...PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE HAS MOSTLY BEEN NOTHING MORE THAN SCT. ONE ARC OF PCPN IS NEARING KIWD AS OF 09Z. MID LEVEL LOW THAT HAS PLAGUED THE GREAT LAKES IN RECENT DAYS IS SHIFTING N IN RESPONSE TO THE UPSTREAM WAVE AND IS NOW CENTERED JUST NE OF GEORGIAN BAY. LARGE AREA OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS BACKING W THRU NRN ONTARIO TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR. CLOSER TO HOME...IT`S BEEN A QUIET NIGHT ACROSS UPPER MI UNDER A BLANKET OF LOW CLOUDS OVER ALL BUT THE FAR W. SOME FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...AND SPOTTY -DZ HAS BEEN NOTED. AS SYSTEM NEAR KDLH TRACKS SE INTO LWR MI BY EVENING...IT WILL ENTRAIN SOME OF THE MOISTURE BACKING W ACROSS NRN ONTARIO. THE DEEPENING MOISTURE PROFILE COMBINED WITH FORCING PROVIDED BY THE WAVE WILL RESULT IN EXPANSION OF PCPN ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES TODAY. PCPN WILL BECOME MOST WIDESPREAD ACROSS NRN UPPER MI DUE TO STRENGTHENING NRLY UPSLOPE FLOW AND EVENTUALLY A WEAK LAKE ENHANCEMENT COMPONENT AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TO 0C BY 00Z. WITH DEVELOPMENT OF MORE WIDESPREAD PCPN AND STRENGTHENING NRLY WINDS...TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO FALL THIS AFTN...SETTLING INTO THE LWR 40S BY EVENING ACROSS THE N AND W. TONIGHT...DEEP MOISTURE LINGERS IN THE EVENING...PROVIDING CONTINUED UPSLOPE FLOW/LAKE ENHANCED PCPN OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. UTILIZING WET BULB HEIGHTS...MAY SEE A LITTLE SNOW MIX WITH THE RAIN OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE KEWEENAW AND FROM THE HURON MTNS TOWARD IRON RIVER BY LATE EVENING AS WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS FALL BLO 1500FT AGL IN THOSE AREAS. OVERNIGHT...THERE IS EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT ON VERY PRONOUNCED DRYING FROM THE NW BEGINNING ROUGHLY AROUND 06Z. INVERSION CRASHES TO AROUND 3KFT. WITH TEMPS IN THE SHALLOW MOIST LAYER -5 TO -7C AT THE LOWEST...IT`S VERY POSSIBLE PCPN WILL COMPLETELY SHUTDOWN OR NEARLY SHUTDOWN FROM W TO E OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING AS SUFFICIENTLY WARM WATER TO REACH THE LAKE EFFECT THRESHOLD ONLY EXISTS CLOSE TO THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THUS...IN EFFECT...THERE IS ONLY A SHORT FETCH. THE VERY NOTABLE DECREASE IN PCPN COVERAGE ON ALL MODEL GUIDANCE CERTAINLY REFLECTS THIS POSSIBILITY. FOR NOW...GRIDS WILL SHOW LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS IN THE EVENING ACROSS THE N FALLING TO CHC OVERNIGHT...LOWEST W. IN THE INTERIOR AWAY FROM AREAS FAVORED BY NNW UPSLOPE...SCT SHRA IN THE EVENING WILL END OVERNIGHT. WITH WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS CONTINUING TO FALL...MORE OF THE LINGERING PCPN WILL MIX WITH OR EVEN CHANGE TO SNOW WHERE MOISTURE STILL EXTENDS TO THE -10C OR LWR ISOTHERM. GIVEN THE RAPID DECREASE IN PCPN COVERAGE/INTENSITY DURING THE OVERNIGHT...NOT EXPECTING ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION. ON A FINAL NOTE...WITH STRONGER WINDS OF 30-40KT CENTERED AROUND 2KFT ARRIVING THIS AFTN COMBINED WITH WEAK CAA...WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY THIS AFTN...AT FIRST NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT EVENTUALLY OVER MUCH OF THE FCST AREA. EXPECT STRONGEST WINDS GUSTING TO 35-40MPH CLOSER TO LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY E OF THE KEWEENAW FROM MARQUETTE TO GRAND MARAIS WHERE THE STRONGER CORE OF WINDS IS NOTED IN MODEL GUIDANCE. WIND GUSTS INLAND AND CLOSER TO LAKE MICHIGAN WILL BE UP TO AROUND 30MPH. GIVEN THE HIGH WATER LEVELS ON LAKE SUPERIOR (HIGHEST SINCE THE MID 1990S) AND WAVES BUILDING TO 8-12 FEET LATE IN THE DAY INTO TONIGHT (HIGHEST E OF THE KEWEENAW)... MINOR BEACH EROSION/FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ON THE BEACHES FROM AROUND MARQUETTE TO GRAND MARAIS. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014 MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE LONG TERM WL BE FOCUSED ON DIMINISHING POPS/WINDS ON SAT AND THEN POPS AGAIN LATE SUN INTO MON IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER SHRTWV DIGGING INTO THE GREAT LKS. TEMPS SHOULD BE AOB NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEK WITH THE COLDEST TEMPS ON SAT NGT UNDER HI PRES RDG/DRY AIRMASS PASSING OVER THE UPR LKS. SOME WARMER WX WL RETURN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK UNDER A BLDG UPR RDG. SAT...ALTHOUGH PLENTY OF LK CLDS AND SOME SCT SHOWERS OF RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW WL STILL BE ARND IN THE MRNG UNDER LINGERING H85 THERMAL TROF...RISING HGTS/DNVA/LARGE SCALE QVECTOR DVGC IN ADVANCE OF APRCHG SHRTWV RDG THAT IS FCST TO SHARPEN AND LOWER INVRN BASE BLO H9 BY 00Z SUN WL END THIS PCPN AND BRING A RETURN OF SOME SUNSHINE BY LATE IN THE DAY AS INVRN BASE SINKS BLO THE LCL. EXPECT LINGERING GUSTY NNW WINDS IN THE MRNG TO ALSO DIMINISH STEADILY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF HI PRES RDG OVER THE W LATE IN THE DAY. SAT NGT...WITH RDG AXIS PASSING OVHD AND PWAT FCST AS LO AS 0.25 INCH SUPPORTING THE CLRG OF ANY LO CLDS THAT MIGHT LINGER EARLY OVER THE E...EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL WELL INTO THE 20S OVER THE INTERIOR CENTRAL AND E. RETURN SW FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SFC RDG AXIS AND SOME HI CLDS ARRIVING LATE IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SHRTWV DIGGING SEWD THRU SCENTRAL CANADA WL TEND TO LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP DROP OVER THE W. SUN INTO MON...NEXT SHRTWV DROPPING SEWD AND INTO THE UPR LKS/UPR MIDWEST BY 12Z MON WL BRING INCRSG CLDS ON SUN AND THE NEXT CHC OF SHOWERS SUN AFTN INTO MON MRNG. ALTHOUGH MSTR INFLOW INTO THIS DISTURBANCE WL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED...FAIRLY VIGOROUS DPVA/QVECTOR CNVGC AND SOME SHARPER ISENTROPIC ASCENT SHOWN BEST ON THE 295K SFC /H775-725/ WARRANT RAISING POPS INTO THE HI LIKELY RANGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND E CENTERED ARND 00Z MON WHERE AND WHEN THE DYNAMIC FORCING WL BE SHARPEST. ALTHOUGH THE SHARPER UPPER FORCING WL EXIT ON MON MRNG...LINGERING LLVL CYC NE FLOW AND SOME DEEPER MSTR SHOULD MAINTAIN LOTS OF CLDS AND SOME SCT SHOWERS. ALTHOUGH H85 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO FALL TO ARND 0C BY 00Z TUE...ALL THE PCPN SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RA WITH H85 TEMPS IN THE 2-5C RANGE MOST OF THE TIME. MON NGT INTO TUE...ALTHOUGH HGTS WL BEGIN TO RISE IN THE WAKE OF THE DIGGING SHRTWV INTO THE SE GREAT LKS...SOME MODELS SHOW SHARPER CYC NE FLOW LINGERING INTO TUE MRNG. THIS SETUP MAY BE FAVORABLE FOR MORE LK CLDS/EVEN A FEW SPRINKLES LINGERING A BIT LONGER FOR AREAS NEAR LK SUP...MAINLY OVER THE NCENTRAL. BUT AS SFC HI PRES BUILDS SLOWLY SE ON TUE...EXPECT ANY LINGERING CLDS TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE AND GIVE WAY TO A MOSUNNY AFTN. WED/THU...EXPECT MOCLR SKIES WITH SFC HI PRES UNDER UPR RDG EXTENDING FM THE PLAINS INTO THE UPR GREAT LKS. WITH H85 TEMPS UP TO 8 TO 9C...EXPECT ABV NORMAL MAX TEMPS BOTH DAYS. BUT CLEAR SKIES/LGT WINDS AT NGT WL SUPPORT A LARGE DIURNAL TEMP RANGE. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 153 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014 INCREASING NORTHERLY UPSLOPE WINDS AND EXPANDING PCPN WILL LEAD TO IFR OR LOWER MVFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE STRENGTHENING NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST AT KSAW THIS AFTN/EVENING WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 30KT. AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FLOW INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT... CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR AT ALL TERMINALS WITH PCPN DIMINISHING OR ENDING. IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR FIRST AT KCMX AND LAST AT KSAW AS MOISTURE THINS OUT THERE LATEST. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014 AS A LO PRES DEEPENS NEAR JAMES BAY TODAY...EXPECT NNW GALES TO 35-40 KTS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO SAT MORNING OVER ALL BUT FAR WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. CONTINUED GALE WARNINGS ISSUED YESTERDAY. ISSUED GALE WARNINGS FOR THE LAKE MICHIGAN NEARSHORE WATERS AND THE NORTHERN BAY OF GREEN BAY AS AXIS OF HIGHEST WINDS WILL EXTEND INTO THAT AREA BY THIS EVENING BEFORE THE FREQUENT GALE FORCE GUSTS DIMINISH ON SAT MORNING. AS A HI PRES RIDGE APPROACHES FROM THE W ON SAT...THE STRONG WINDS WILL DIMINISH W-E. ALTHOUGH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE/SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK...NO STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LSZ266-267. GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LSZ244-245-248-249-264- 265. GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LSZ250-251. GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ242-243-246-247- 263. LAKE MICHIGAN... GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LMZ221-248-250. && $$ SHORT TERM...ROLFSON LONG TERM...KC AVIATION...JLA MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1236 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014 MADE ADDITIONAL CHANGES TO SKY COVER THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. OVERCAST SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF REGION WITH A FEW BREAKS ACROSS NORTHWEST. GFS/MAV GUIDANCE WAS IGNORED...AS IT IS WAY TOO OPTIMISTIC. FOLLOWED MORE OF A NAM/HRRR BLEND WHICH IS VERIFYING BETTER AND HOLDS ON TO CLOUD COVER INTO SATURDAY MORNING...WHILE HITTING IT HARDEST ACROSS CENTRAL ND. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH TRENDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND MAKE ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS AS NEEDED. OTHERWISE...FORECAST IS ON TRACK. UPDATE ISSUED AT 915 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014 FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND ONLY CHANGES WERE TO BLEND CURRENT OBS TO FORECAST. MAIN ISSUE TODAY WILL BE CLOUD COVER AND WHEN CLEARING WILL OCCUR. WATER VAPOR CONTINUES TO SHOW WEAK SHORTWAVE ENTERING WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...SUPPORTING ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER WITH REMAINDER OF STATE OVERCAST PER 11-3.9 IMAGERY AND EARLY MORNING VIS IMAGERY AND OBS. SOME DISCREPANCY BETWEEN MODELS WITH REGARD TO TIMING OF CLEARING WITH GFS/MAV MUCH MORE OPTIMISTIC THAN NAM/HRRR GUIDANCE. WILL CONTINUE THE SLOWER CLEARING THAT IS ALREADY DEPICTED IN FORECAST GRIDS. NAM/HRRR ARE INDICATING CLOUDS LINGERING IN CENTRAL/EASTERN ND WELL INTO NIGHT. WILL SEE HOW TRENDS DEVELOP TODAY BEFORE ADJUSTING SKY TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...WINDS ARE STILL GUSTY CENTRAL/EAST BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY TAPER DOWN DURING THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014 LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. A FEW BREAKS IN THE LOWER MVFR CEILINGS IN THE WEST IS BEING COVERED BY A BAND OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON SKY COVER THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS SO NO UPDATES NEEDED HERE. ONLY CHANGES WERE TO UPDATE LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014 LATEST SUITE OF SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY CONDITIONS COVERING JUST ABOUT ALL OF WESTERN/CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SOUTHWEST. NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND THE LATEST HRRR CEILING FORECAST KEEP A NEARLY SATURATED LAYER...ALBEIT SHALLOW...FROM 900MB TO 850MB ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY. THE WEST WILL SEE A RETURN TO A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY BY LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE IS NOT AS DEEP AND SUBSIDENCE/DRYING OCCURS BEHIND A DEPARTING SHORTWAVE THIS AFTERNOON. A H85 COLD POCKET OF 0C TO +2C SLIDES INTO THE EAST CENTRAL ZONES TODAY KEEPING UNSTABLE CONDITIONS IN PLACE AS STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE 925-H85 LAYER ARE MAINTAINED FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS SOUTH INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. THUS WITH THE EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS UPSTREAM PER FOG/STRATUS IMAGERY LOOP...IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE LATEST TIME HEIGHT RH CROSS SECTIONS...CLOUDS/BRISK WINDS WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE CLEARING BEGINS TO TAKE PLACE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S NORTH AND EAST TO LOWER 50S SOUTHWEST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS TWO SHORTWAVES...THE FIRST WAS SHORTWAVE WAS CIRCULATING OVER NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA...AND THIS IS FORECAST TO SLIDE INTO SOUTHEAST MONTANA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS LACKING FOR ANYTHING MUCH MORE THAN CLOUDS THROUGH THE MORNING IN THE SOUTHWEST...THEN AS MENTIONED ABOVE SOME CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SHORTWAVE. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL/NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN...AND THIS IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF NORTH DAKOTA TODAY AS IT MOVES INTO MANITOBA AND MINNESOTA. DECREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS 30 TO 35F. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014 THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL NOT BE UNTIL THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIMEFRAME NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS THIS WEEKEND FOR A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. SOUTHERLY WINDS SATURDAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE 50S CENTRAL TO THE LOWER 60S WEST. ON SUNDAY A WEAK FRONT WILL BRING NORTHWEST WINDS AT 10 TO 15 MPH...BUT THE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT IS MILD PACIFIC AIR AND HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE STATE. MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 60S NORTHEAST TO LOWER 70S SOUTHWEST. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES...PUTTING THE DAKOTAS UNDER A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL BRING SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. CURRENTLY THE MODEL BLEND SOLUTION BRINGS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO THE WEST WEDNESDAY...AND CENTRAL/EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LATEST DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN WEAKER/DRIER WITH THIS FEATURE...WITH THE MAIN ENERGY ALOFT LIFTING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...COULD SEE A DRY FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURES COOL ONLY SLIGHTLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BUT IT WILL REMAIN MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014 MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION WITH CIGS AROUND 1000 FEET. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF CLEARING ACROSS THE WEST...INCLUDING KISN AND KDIK. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JNS SHORT TERM...KS LONG TERM...TWH AVIATION...JNS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
659 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT SHIFTING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OHIO. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ALLOW COOL TEMPERATURES TO SPILL SOUTH AND COVER THE AREA SATURDAY. A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL WEATHER SYSTEM WILL DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS OHIO AND KENTUCKY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS. IN ADDITION...THE COOL AIR FLOWING OVER LAKE MICHIGAN MAY ALLOW A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA AND AFFECT THE TRI STATE ON SATURDAY MORNING IN ADVANCE OF THE STRONGER WAVE IN THE AFTERNOON. A DRY SUNDAY IS EXPECTED WITH COOL TEMPERATURES LINGERING. LOOKING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN MOVING BACK INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES FROM CANADA. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... 17.18Z RAP ANALYSIS AND OBSERVATIONAL DATA /GOES WATER VAPOR DATA/ INDICATE A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING LAKE MICHIGAN AND EASTERN WISCONSIN. AT THE SURFACE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...IS A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS WRN LOWER MICHIGAN...INDIANA...INTO SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS. LOW CLOUDS ARE STREAKING QUICKLY ACROSS NRN INDIANA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT IN DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CAA. GUSTY WAA/MIXING IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO RISE TO NEAR 70F AREA-WIDE...WITH DWPTS MIXING STEADILY INTO THE UPPER 40S AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON. IN THE PAST FEW HOURS...SOME HIGH BASED CUMULUS HAVE DEVELOPED IN A FORCED ASCENT REGION IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM OF THE SHORTWAVE OVER NERN IND/NWRN OH...WITH SPRINKLES/-SHRA NOW DEVELOPING. EXPECT SOME HIGHER-BASED SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN ACCORDANCE WITH RECENT HRRR...17.12Z HIRES ARW/NMM/NAM/GEM. THESE SHOULD DEVELOP/STREAK DOWNSTREAM ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70 THROUGH THIS EVENING SO INTRODUCED VERY SMALL CHANCES OF A MEASURABLE SHOWER ESP FOR AREAS FROM CELINA TO KENTON OVER TO DELAWARE. COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY CROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING AND STRONG CAA TO ENSUE WITH BRISK/GUSTY NW WINDS. BRING CLOUD COVER UP QUICKLY IN THE NWLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...WITH CONTINUED MENTION OF A SPRINKLE/-SHRA INTO THE OVERNIGHT IN OUR FAR NORTH WHICH IS JUXTAPOSED WITH THE DEEPEST /RELATIVELY SPEAKING/ MOISTURE AND MODEST FORCED ASCENT FROM THE SHORTWAVE CROSSING MICH/LAKE HURON. LATER IN THE NIGHT /AFTER 3 AM OR SO/...THE STRONG COLD ADVECTION SHOULD BEGIN WORKING THE WARM SRN LAKE MICHIGAN LAKE WATERS AND ALL CONVECTION-ALLOWING GUIDANCE INDICATES STREAMERS OF -SHRA DEVELOPING OFF LAKE MICHIGAN PUSHING INTO ECNTL IND TOWARD THE CWA VERY LATE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... ON 19.12Z...THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE MENTIONED ABOVE WILL BE PUSHING INTO UPSTATE NY...WHILE A SECOND STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS QUICKLY SOUTHEAST INTO WIS/ILL. THINK THERE IS A LULL IN THE SYNOPTIC FORCING FROM 12Z-18Z...SO RAIN CHANCES IN THE MORNING QUITE SMALL. LOW LEVEL STRATUS/STRATOCUMULUS WILL BE RATHER WIDESPREAD...BUT THERE MAY BE SOME HOLES HERE AND THERE AMIDST THE STRONG CAA. LAKE MICHIGAN-INDUCED BANDS OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT INTO THE TRI-STATE AREA ON A LIMITED/NARROW BASIS...AS MOST 17.12Z CAM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST SHRA BANDS WILL BE MAINTAINED OFF LAKE MICHIGAN INTO SERN IND/SWRN OH/NRN KY. THE SECOND POTENT S/W BRINGS A BRIEF BUT DEEP MOISTURE FIELD AND COMPACT VERTICAL MOTION SIGNAL. SEEMS QPF IN THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS MAY BE UNDERDONE GIVEN A PURELY MOISTURE/LIFT PERSPECTIVE FROM 17.12Z NAM/GFS...BUT THERE IS ACKNOWLEDGMENT THAT ANTECEDENT MOISTURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES IS HARDLY IMPRESSIVE. THUS...EXPECT BAND/S/ OF SHOWERS TO SPREAD NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVE. INCREASED RAIN CHANCES A BIT BUT THINK THEY COULD GO EVEN A LITTLE HIGHER IF FORCING/MOISTURE SIGNAL STILL LOOKS DECENT. A CHILLY...GREY DAY FOR THE MOST PART...WITH HIGHS ONLY MOVING UP A FEW DEGREES OFF THE MORNING LOWS...MOSTLY LOW-MID 50S GIVEN 850MB TEMPS PLUNGING TO 0C BY MIDDAY OVER OHIO/INDIANA. A BRISK WIND WILL ADD TO THE CHILL. THIS FORCING QUICKLY SLIDES EAST SATURDAY NIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES. THIS IS IMPORTANT AND STILL A LOW CONFIDENCE POINT...IF SUBSIDENCE IS EFFICIENT AT ERODING LOW CLOUDS...MAY BE DEALING WITH A WIDESPREAD FROST /AND POTENTIAL FREEZE/ IN OUR NORTH/WEST COUNTIES LATER SAT NIGHT. A FEW HOURS EITHER WAY MAKE/BREAK THIS FORECAST...AND THIS PUTS CNTL OH/SCIOTO VALLEY IN A REAL QUESTION MARK AS THERE WON/T BE MUCH OF A WINDOW FOR FROST FORMATION IF LOW CLOUDS ARE SLOW IN ERODING. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT OWING TO DECOUPLING BOUNDARY LAYER. 17.12Z NAM HAS MORE WIND AND A HIGHER POTENTIAL OF LOW CLOUDS HANGING IN THEN 17.12Z GFS...WHICH LOOKS VERY FROSTY IN OUR NORTH/WEST. AT A MINIMUM THINK WE/LL PROBABLY NEED FROST ADVISORIES FOR WCNTL OH/SERN IND/PORTIONS OF SWRN OH SAT NIGHT...WITH POTENTIAL FREEZE HEADLINES IN FAR NORTH/WEST AND MORE WIDESPREAD FROST HEADLINES IF CLEARING IS AHEAD OF SCHEDULE. SUNDAY BRINGS A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AS S/W RIDGING MOVES IN. BOUNDARY LAYER SLOW TO WARM AFTER THE CHILLY START AND ONLY LOW- MID 50S ARE SUGGESTED GIVEN LIGHT WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND BETTER WAA REMAINING ATOP THE BOUNDARY LAYER. WARM ADVECTION BECOMES STRONGER SUNDAY NIGHT AS THETA-E ADVECTION INCREASES AHEAD OF NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THERE STILL MAY BE A FROST THREAT IN CNTL OH/SCIOTO VALLEY AS THEY WILL BE LAST TO SEE INCREASING CLOUDS/SWLY WINDS. DID INTRODUCE A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FAR WEST/NORTH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT GIVEN SIGNALS IN ECMWF/GFS...THOUGH NAM/SREF ARE QUITE DRY IN THE SUBCLOUD LAYER BELOW THE ADVANCING MID CLOUD. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN GFS/ECMWF IN THE OVERALL UPR PATTERN AND THE ASSOC SFC FEATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED...ALTHOUGH SOME CHANGES IN BOTH MODELS FROM YESTERDAY INCLUDE A DEEPER UPR LEVEL LOW AND THEREFOR SLOWER TO DEPART THE REGION PRIOR TO THE DEEP RIDGING DOMINATING THE CENTRAL/WESTERN CONUS IN THE LATTER PART OF THE EXTENDED. HAVE LINGERED SHOWERS NOW THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY IN THE EAST AS THE UPR LOW CONTINUES TO BECOME DEEPER WITH EACH MODEL RUN AND WILL RESULT IN PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER IN THE EAST WELL INTO WEDNESDAY. HAVE ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT LOWS UPWARD IN THE TUE NIGHT/WED NIGHT TIMEFRAME ACCORDINGLY WITH THE DELAY IN POST FRONTAL CLEARING. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR UPDATES IN TEMPS/PRECIP/CLOUDS IN THE EAST IF THE LOW CONTINUES TO SLOW/DEEPEN. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... CEILINGS OVER THE AREA ARE CURRENTLY COMFORTABLY IN THE VFR RANGE...WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OBSERVED OVER NORTHWEST OHIO AND NORTHERN INDIANA. AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES INTO THE OVERNIGHT...LOW CLOUDS UPSTREAM WILL GRADUALLY MOVE INTO THE REGION...AND MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL THE TAF SITES BY EARLY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AT THE DAYTON AND COLUMBUS TAF SITES...BUT IF ANY OCCURS...IT WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON AVIATION CONDITIONS. MVFR CEILINGS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...THOUGH THEY SHOULD LIFT ABOVE 2000 FEET IN HEIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND COULD IMPACT ANY OF THE TAF SITES AFTER 18Z. IMPACTS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE MINOR. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR RAIN APPEARS TO BE AT THE COLUMBUS TAF SITES. WESTERLY WINDS WILL SLIGHTLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING...BUT SUSTAINED WINDS OF ABOVE 10 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS. AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY...THEY WILL AGAIN BE BREEZY...WITH GUSTS REACHING THE 20-25 KNOT RANGE. .OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY EVENING. MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BINAU NEAR TERM...BINAU SHORT TERM...BINAU LONG TERM...JDR AVIATION...HATZOS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
340 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT SHIFTING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OHIO. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ALLOW COOL TEMPERATURES TO SPILL SOUTH AND COVER THE AREA SATURDAY. A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL WEATHER SYSTEM WILL DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS OHIO AND KENTUCKY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS. IN ADDITION...THE COOL AIR FLOWING OVER LAKE MICHIGAN MAY ALLOW A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA AND AFFECT THE TRI STATE ON SATURDAY MORNING IN ADVANCE OF THE STRONGER WAVE IN THE AFTERNOON. A DRY SUNDAY IS EXPECTED WITH COOL TEMPERATURES LINGERING. LOOKING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN MOVING BACK INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES FROM CANADA. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... 17.18Z RAP ANALYSIS AND OBSERVATIONAL DATA /GOES WATER VAPOR DATA/ INDICATE A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING LAKE MICHIGAN AND EASTERN WISCONSIN. AT THE SURFACE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...IS A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS WRN LOWER MICHIGAN...INDIANA...INTO SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS. LOW CLOUDS ARE STREAKING QUICKLY ACROSS NRN INDIANA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT IN DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CAA. GUSTY WAA/MIXING IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO RISE TO NEAR 70F AREA-WIDE...WITH DWPTS MIXING STEADILY INTO THE UPPER 40S AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON. IN THE PAST FEW HOURS...SOME HIGH BASED CUMULUS HAVE DEVELOPED IN A FORCED ASCENT REGION IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM OF THE SHORTWAVE OVER NERN IND/NWRN OH...WITH SPRINKLES/-SHRA NOW DEVELOPING. EXPECT SOME HIGHER-BASED SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN ACCORDANCE WITH RECENT HRRR...17.12Z HIRES ARW/NMM/NAM/GEM. THESE SHOULD DEVELOP/STREAK DOWNSTREAM ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70 THROUGH THIS EVENING SO INTRODUCED VERY SMALL CHANCES OF A MEASURABLE SHOWER ESP FOR AREAS FROM CELINA TO KENTON OVER TO DELAWARE. COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY CROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING AND STRONG CAA TO ENSUE WITH BRISK/GUSTY NW WINDS. BRING CLOUD COVER UP QUICKLY IN THE NWLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...WITH CONTINUED MENTION OF A SPRINKLE/-SHRA INTO THE OVERNIGHT IN OUR FAR NORTH WHICH IS JUXTAPOSED WITH THE DEEPEST /RELATIVELY SPEAKING/ MOISTURE AND MODEST FORCED ASCENT FROM THE SHORTWAVE CROSSING MICH/LAKE HURON. LATER IN THE NIGHT /AFTER 3 AM OR SO/...THE STRONG COLD ADVECTION SHOULD BEGIN WORKING THE WARM SRN LAKE MICHIGAN LAKE WATERS AND ALL CONVECTION-ALLOWING GUIDANCE INDICATES STREAMERS OF -SHRA DEVELOPING OFF LAKE MICHIGAN PUSHING INTO ECNTL IND TOWARD THE CWA VERY LATE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... ON 19.12Z...THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE MENTIONED ABOVE WILL BE PUSHING INTO UPSTATE NY...WHILE A SECOND STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS QUICKLY SOUTHEAST INTO WIS/ILL. THINK THERE IS A LULL IN THE SYNOPTIC FORCING FROM 12Z-18Z...SO RAIN CHANCES IN THE MORNING QUITE SMALL. LOW LEVEL STRATUS/STRATOCUMULUS WILL BE RATHER WIDESPREAD...BUT THERE MAY BE SOME HOLES HERE AND THERE AMIDST THE STRONG CAA. LAKE MICHIGAN-INDUCED BANDS OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT INTO THE TRI-STATE AREA ON A LIMITED/NARROW BASIS...AS MOST 17.12Z CAM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST SHRA BANDS WILL BE MAINTAINED OFF LAKE MICHIGAN INTO SERN IND/SWRN OH/NRN KY. THE SECOND POTENT S/W BRINGS A BRIEF BUT DEEP MOISTURE FIELD AND COMPACT VERTICAL MOTION SIGNAL. SEEMS QPF IN THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS MAY BE UNDERDONE GIVEN A PURELY MOISTURE/LIFT PERSPECTIVE FROM 17.12Z NAM/GFS...BUT THERE IS ACKNOWLEDGMENT THAT ANTECEDENT MOISTURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES IS HARDLY IMPRESSIVE. THUS...EXPECT BAND/S/ OF SHOWERS TO SPREAD NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVE. INCREASED RAIN CHANCES A BIT BUT THINK THEY COULD GO EVEN A LITTLE HIGHER IF FORCING/MOISTURE SIGNAL STILL LOOKS DECENT. A CHILLY...GREY DAY FOR THE MOST PART...WITH HIGHS ONLY MOVING UP A FEW DEGREES OFF THE MORNING LOWS...MOSTLY LOW-MID 50S GIVEN 850MB TEMPS PLUNGING TO 0C BY MIDDAY OVER OHIO/INDIANA. A BRISK WIND WILL ADD TO THE CHILL. THIS FORCING QUICKLY SLIDES EAST SATURDAY NIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES. THIS IS IMPORTANT AND STILL A LOW CONFIDENCE POINT...IF SUBSIDENCE IS EFFICIENT AT ERODING LOW CLOUDS...MAY BE DEALING WITH A WIDESPREAD FROST /AND POTENTIAL FREEZE/ IN OUR NORTH/WEST COUNTIES LATER SAT NIGHT. A FEW HOURS EITHER WAY MAKE/BREAK THIS FORECAST...AND THIS PUTS CNTL OH/SCIOTO VALLEY IN A REAL QUESTION MARK AS THERE WON/T BE MUCH OF A WINDOW FOR FROST FORMATION IF LOW CLOUDS ARE SLOW IN ERODING. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT OWING TO DECOUPLING BOUNDARY LAYER. 17.12Z NAM HAS MORE WIND AND A HIGHER POTENTIAL OF LOW CLOUDS HANGING IN THEN 17.12Z GFS...WHICH LOOKS VERY FROSTY IN OUR NORTH/WEST. AT A MINIMUM THINK WE/LL PROBABLY NEED FROST ADVISORIES FOR WCNTL OH/SERN IND/PORTIONS OF SWRN OH SAT NIGHT...WITH POTENTIAL FREEZE HEADLINES IN FAR NORTH/WEST AND MORE WIDESPREAD FROST HEADLINES IF CLEARING IS AHEAD OF SCHEDULE. SUNDAY BRINGS A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AS S/W RIDGING MOVES IN. BOUNDARY LAYER SLOW TO WARM AFTER THE CHILLY START AND ONLY LOW- MID 50S ARE SUGGESTED GIVEN LIGHT WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND BETTER WAA REMAINING ATOP THE BOUNDARY LAYER. WARM ADVECTION BECOMES STRONGER SUNDAY NIGHT AS THETA-E ADVECTION INCREASES AHEAD OF NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THERE STILL MAY BE A FROST THREAT IN CNTL OH/SCIOTO VALLEY AS THEY WILL BE LAST TO SEE INCREASING CLOUDS/SWLY WINDS. DID INTRODUCE A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FAR WEST/NORTH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT GIVEN SIGNALS IN ECMWF/GFS...THOUGH NAM/SREF ARE QUITE DRY IN THE SUBCLOUD LAYER BELOW THE ADVANCING MID CLOUD. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN GFS/ECMWF IN THE OVERALL UPR PATTERN AND THE ASSOC SFC FEATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED...ALTHOUGH SOME CHANGES IN BOTH MODELS FROM YESTERDAY INCLUDE A DEEPER UPR LEVEL LOW AND THEREFOR SLOWER TO DEPART THE REGION PRIOR TO THE DEEP RIDGING DOMINATING THE CENTRAL/WESTERN CONUS IN THE LATTER PART OF THE EXTENDED. HAVE LINGERED SHOWERS NOW THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY IN THE EAST AS THE UPR LOW CONTINUES TO BECOME DEEPER WITH EACH MODEL RUN AND WILL RESULT IN PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER IN THE EAST WELL INTO WEDNESDAY. HAVE ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT LOWS UPWARD IN THE TUE NIGHT/WED NIGHT TIMEFRAME ACCORDINGLY WITH THE DELAY IN POST FRONTAL CLEARING. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR UPDATES IN TEMPS/PRECIP/CLOUDS IN THE EAST IF THE LOW CONTINUES TO SLOW/DEEPEN. && .AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... LOW CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED OUT LEAVING ONLY FEW TO SCATTERED CLOUDS THIS AFTN IN WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT. COLD FRONT TO SWEEP EAST THRU THE TAF SITES FROM WEST TO EAST DURG LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING HOURS. THIS FRONT WILL COME THRU DRY FOLLOWED BY AN OVERCAST DECK OF CLOUDS IN THE MVFR CATEGORY. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO PERSIST ON SATURDAY WITH A SHOWER OR SPRINKLE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AT KDAY/KILN/KCVG AND KLUK. COVERAGE AND PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE FCST. SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 KTS THIS AFTN WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY. .OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BINAU NEAR TERM...BINAU SHORT TERM...BINAU LONG TERM...JDR AVIATION...AR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1120 AM MDT FRI OCT 17 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 349 AM MDT FRI OCT 17 2014 THE VERY NICE FALL WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAK FRONT HAS BACKED ACROSS THE PLAINS AND TEMPS ARE CHILLY WITH MANY LOCATIONS IN THE LOW-TO-MID 30S. STRATUS IS CURRENTLY ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE HRRR PUSHES THE LOW CLOUDS INTO THE FAR EASTERN ZONES BY SUNRISE...HOWEVER BELIEVE IT MAY BE A BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE. A DROP IN TEMPS OF 5-10 DEGREES WILL BE SEE TODAY ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S AS OPPOSED TO THE 70S FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS. HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE ON SAT WITH WARM ADVECTION. TEMPS WILL BE BACK UP INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE BREEZY DURING THE AFTN OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AS PRESSURE FALLS OCCUR OVER EASTERN MT DURING THE DAY. WEAK SHORTWAVE PUSHES FROM MT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SAT NIGHT. OTHER THAN DRAGGING A WEAK COOL FRONT OVER THE PANHANDLE ON SUN MORNING...THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE VERY LITTLE EFFECT ON THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD ON SUN FOR A CONTINUATION OF THE TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 349 AM MDT FRI OCT 17 2014 DRY AND MILD TO START OFF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES MONDAY WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT INTO THE PLAINS WITH A TROUGH TO PUSH INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY MID WEEK. TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS INTO THE 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 60S INTO THE WEST. TUESDAY COULD BE VERY WARM FOR THE LATER PORTIONS OF OCTOBER. MAY SEE RECORD HIGHS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA ASSUMING HIGH CLOUDS ARE NOT TOO EXTENSIVE AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE WEDNESDAY BASED ON CURRENT MODEL TIMING. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE IN THE FORM OF LIQUID...AND THAT MAY ALSO HOLD TRUE FOR THE MOUNTAINS AS THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF COLD AIR FROM THIS PACIFIC SYSTEM. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 1120 AM MDT FRI OCT 17 2014 VFR OVER ALL AERODROMES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT SFC WINDS. && .FIRE WEATHER... ISSUED AT 249 AM MDT FRI OCT 17 2014 NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES COOLER TODAY FOR AREAS TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. MINIMUM AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE TO THE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. WITH WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS...WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 15 MPH THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...FINCH LONG TERM...SML AVIATION...RE FIRE WEATHER...FINCH