Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 10/16/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
1116 PM EDT WED OCT 15 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL TRACK EAST OVERNIGHT
INTO THURSDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY
INTO THURSDAY EVENING. LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING TO THE SOUTHWEST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY AFFECT THE AREA
NEXT TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FOR WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
PLENTY OF LOW TOPPED CONVECTION IN AN INCREASINGLY MOIST
ENVIRONMENT NOW IMPACTING PART OF OUR AREA. BASED ON LATEST RADAR
TRENDS...AND UPDATED HRRR SIM REFL FORECASTS...EXPECT BROKEN AREAS
OF HEAVY SHOWERS TO TRAVERSE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. THE MAIN AREA
THOUGH WILL SLOWLY TRANSLATE EAST. POPS AND COVERAGE INCREASE FROM
WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT. WITH LOW LEVEL JET EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND
MOVE UP THE COAST...TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE IN WEAK INSTABILITY. WITH
THESE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT...A FEW GUSTS IN HEAVY SHOWERS/TSTMS
MAY APPROACH 40 KTS. MAIN THREAT THOUGH IS HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AND
URBAN OR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR TRAINING
OF STORMS. RECENT OBS HAVE SHOWN A QUARTER OF AN INCH IN A SHORT
PERIOD OF TIME.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN VERY WARM TEMPS FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. VERY LITTLE DROP IN TEMPS FROM CURRENT READINGS IS ANTICIPATED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED THURSDAY WITH THE
COLD FRONT MOVING SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE
EVENING. PRECIPITATION DOES END ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES IN THE
MORNING BUT WILL TAKE MOST OF THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING TO END
EAST AS THE TROUGH BECOMES EVEN MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED. SURFACE
BASED INSTABILITY REMAINS INTO THURSDAY SO CONTINUE WITH THE
ISOLATED THUNDER AND HEAVY RAINFALL. THE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD
FRONT LIFT NORTH AND EAST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT TOWARD FRIDAY
MORNING AS UPPER FLOW THEN BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND WEAK HIGH BUILDS
TO THE SOUTHWEST. ACROSS THE WESTERN SECTIONS HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE
EARLY IN THE DAY ALTHOUGH THERE IS NOT GOING TO BE A SURGE OF MUCH
COLDER AIR.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. A DRY COLD FRONT SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...RESULTING IN A DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE AROUND 70...THEN FALL INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 50S BY SUNDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY NIGHT WILL
BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S...THEN FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
BY SUNDAY NIGHT. LOWS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH SUN NIGHT FOR THE
POSSIBILITY FOR FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA. THE AIR WILL
PROBABLY BE TOO DRY TO SUPPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION.
TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. DRY
CONDITIONS RETURN WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES IN THROUGH
THURSDAY. MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WITH OCCASIONAL IFR
BEFORE BECOMING PREVAILING IFR OVERNIGHT AT MAINLY CITY TERMINALS
AND NORTHWEST. TO THE EAST...IT WILL TAKE A FEW HOURS LONGER FOR
MVFR AND THEN IFR TO MATERIALIZE. SOME FLUCTUATION WILL BE SEEN AT
TIMES BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR/IFR.
SHOWERS WILL BE OVERALL INTERMITTENT TONIGHT WITH THE HEAVIEST OF
RAIN TOWARDS DAYBREAK...WHEN LIFR WILL BE POSSIBLE. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO FORECAST BUT TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN TIME
AND LOCATION FOR INCLUSION IN TAFS.
WINDS...SE TO S THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...10-15 KT WITH
GUSTS 20-25 KT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. LOW LEVEL JET OF
50 KT AT 2KFT OVERNIGHT. HIGHER GUSTS...PERHAPS 30-35 KT POSSIBLE
WITH SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS.
IFR AND SHOWER TIMING COULD VARY 2-4 HOURS FROM FORECAST. THERE
MAY EVEN BE A PERIOD TONIGHT WHERE IT IS MOSTLY DRY. AMENDMENTS
LIKELY TO REFINE TIMING OF SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRI THROUGH MON...
.THU NIGHT...VFR. S WINDS 5-10 KT...DECREASING AND BECOMING MORE
WESTERLY.
.FRI-SAT...VFR. WSW WINDS 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KT.
.SUN..VFR. WNW WINDS AROUND 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT.
.MON...VFR. W WINDS 5-10 KT.
&&
.MARINE...
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND PERSISTS ON THE AREA WATERS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE HIGHEST WIND AND GUSTS WILL BE TONIGHT
AS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE AS THE FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE
REGION. MINIMAL SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ARE LIKELY ON THE OCEAN WATERS
TONIGHT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WATERS. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS REMAIN
AROUND 4 TO 6 FT LATE THIS EVENING AND WILL BUILD THROUGH THE
NIGHT IN THE PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW. THE WINDS SUBSIDE AND
THEN SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT LATE
IN THE DAY INTO THE EVENING THURSDAY. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL
REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT.
SEAS WILL REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS PREVAIL BEHIND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SWELLS
FROM DISTANT HURRICANE GONZALO IMPACT THE AREA WATERS. SEAS FALL
BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ON MONDAY AND REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
LEVEL CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
PLEASE REFER TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR THE LATEST
FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY INFORMATION.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A SLOW MOVING LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ALLOW FOR HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AT TIMES TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...ENDING FROM WEST TO
EAST THURSDAY. TOTAL RAINFALL DURING THIS TIME FRAME SHOULD
AVERAGE AROUND 1 1/2 INCHES. A RANGE OF 1 TO 3 INCHES PER ENSEMBLE
SOLUTIONS. DEPENDING ON WHERE EXACTLY HEAVIER BANDS
DEVELOP...LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE DEFINITELY POSSIBLE. LOW
LYING...POOR DRAINAGE...AND URBAN FLOODING ARE LIKELY.
AFTER THURSDAY NIGHT NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIP EXPECTED.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
AVIATION...JM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
1029 PM EDT WED OCT 15 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL TRACK EAST OVERNIGHT
INTO THURSDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY
INTO THURSDAY EVENING. LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING TO THE SOUTHWEST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY AFFECT THE AREA
NEXT TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FOR WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
PLENTY OF LOW TOPPED CONVECTION IN AN INCREASINGLY MOIST
ENVIRONMENT NOW IMPACTING PART OF OUR AREA. BASED ON LATEST RADAR
TRENDS...AND UPDATED HRRR SIM REFL FORECASTS...EXPECT BROKEN AREAS
OF HEAVY SHOWERS TO TRAVERSE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. THE MAIN AREA
THOUGH WILL SLOWLY TRANSLATE EAST. POPS AND COVERAGE INCREASE FROM
WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT. WITH LOW LEVEL JET EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND
MOVE UP THE COAST...TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE IN WEAK INSTABILITY. WITH
THESE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT...A FEW GUSTS IN HEAVY SHOWERS/TSTMS
MAY APPROACH 40 KTS. MAIN THREAT THOUGH IS HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AND
URBAN OR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR TRAINING
OF STORMS. RECENT OBS HAVE SHOWN A QUARTER OF AN INCH IN A SHORT
PERIOD OF TIME.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN VERY WARM TEMPS FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. VERY LITTLE DROP IN TEMPS FROM CURRENT READINGS IS ANTICIPATED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED THURSDAY WITH THE
COLD FRONT MOVING SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE
EVENING. PRECIPITATION DOES END ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES IN THE
MORNING BUT WILL TAKE MOST OF THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING TO END
EAST AS THE TROUGH BECOMES EVEN MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED. SURFACE
BASED INSTABILITY REMAINS INTO THURSDAY SO CONTINUE WITH THE
ISOLATED THUNDER AND HEAVY RAINFALL. THE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD
FRONT LIFT NORTH AND EAST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT TOWARD FRIDAY
MORNING AS UPPER FLOW THEN BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND WEAK HIGH BUILDS
TO THE SOUTHWEST. ACROSS THE WESTERN SECTIONS HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE
EARLY IN THE DAY ALTHOUGH THERE IS NOT GOING TO BE A SURGE OF MUCH
COLDER AIR.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. A DRY COLD FRONT SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...RESULTING IN A DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE AROUND 70...THEN FALL INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 50S BY SUNDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY NIGHT WILL
BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S...THEN FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
BY SUNDAY NIGHT. LOWS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH SUN NIGHT FOR THE
POSSIBILITY FOR FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA. THE AIR WILL
PROBABLY BE TOO DRY TO SUPPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION.
TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. DRY
CONDITIONS RETURN WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES IN THROUGH
THURSDAY. MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WITH OCCASIONAL IFR
BEFORE BECOMING PREVAILING IFR OVERNIGHT AT MAINLY CITY TERMINALS
AND NORTHWEST. TO THE EAST...IT WILL TAKE A FEW HOURS LONGER FOR
MVFR AND THEN IFR TO MATERIALIZE.
SHOWERS WILL BE OVERALL INTERMITTENT TONIGHT WITH THE HEAVIEST OF
RAIN TOWARDS DAYBREAK...WHEN LIFR WILL BE POSSIBLE. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO FORECAST BUT TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN TIME
AND LOCATION FOR INCLUSION IN TAFS.
WINDS...SE TO S THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...10-15 KT WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS 20-25 KT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. LOW LEVEL
JET OF 50 KT AT 2KFT OVERNIGHT. HIGHER GUSTS...PERHAPS 30-35 KT
POSSIBLE WITH SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR AND SHOWER TIMING COULD VARY 2-4 HOURS
FROM FORECAST. THERE MAY EVEN BE A PERIOD TONIGHT WHERE IT IS
MOSTLY DRY. AMENDMENTS LIKELY TO REFINE TIMING OF SHOWERS AND
MVFR/IFR.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR AND SHOWER TIMING COULD VARY 2-4 HOURS
FROM FORECAST. THERE MAY EVEN BE A PERIOD TONIGHT WHERE IT IS
MOSTLY DRY. AMENDMENTS LIKELY TO REFINE TIMING OF SHOWERS AND
MVFR/IFR.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR AND SHOWER TIMING COULD VARY 2-4 HOURS
FROM FORECAST. THERE MAY EVEN BE A PERIOD TONIGHT WHERE IT IS
MOSTLY DRY. AMENDMENTS LIKELY TO REFINE TIMING OF SHOWERS AND
MVFR/IFR.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR AND SHOWER TIMING COULD VARY 2-4 HOURS
FROM FORECAST. THERE MAY EVEN BE A PERIOD TONIGHT WHERE IT IS
MOSTLY DRY. AMENDMENTS LIKELY TO REFINE TIMING OF SHOWERS AND
MVFR/IFR.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR AND SHOWER TIMING COULD VARY 2-4 HOURS
FROM FORECAST. THERE MAY EVEN BE A PERIOD TONIGHT WHERE IT IS
MOSTLY DRY. AMENDMENTS LIKELY TO REFINE TIMING OF SHOWERS AND
MVFR/IFR.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR AND SHOWER TIMING COULD VARY 2-4 HOURS
FROM FORECAST. THERE MAY EVEN BE A PERIOD TONIGHT WHERE IT IS
MOSTLY DRY. AMENDMENTS LIKELY TO REFINE TIMING OF SHOWERS AND
MVFR/IFR.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRI THROUGH MON...
.THU NIGHT...VFR. S WINDS 5-10 KT...DECREASING AND BECOMING MORE
WESTERLY.
.FRI-SAT...VFR. WSW WINDS 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KT.
.SUN..VFR. WNW WINDS AROUND 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT.
.MON...VFR. W WINDS 5-10 KT.
&&
.MARINE...
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND PERSISTS ON THE AREA WATERS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE HIGHEST WIND AND GUSTS WILL BE TONIGHT
AS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE AS THE FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE
REGION. MINIMAL SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ARE LIKELY ON THE OCEAN WATERS
TONIGHT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WATERS. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS REMAIN
AROUND 4 TO 6 FT LATE THIS EVENING AND WILL BUILD THROUGH THE
NIGHT IN THE PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW. THE WINDS SUBSIDE AND
THEN SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT LATE
IN THE DAY INTO THE EVENING THURSDAY. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL
REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT.
SEAS WILL REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS PREVAIL BEHIND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SWELLS
FROM DISTANT HURRICANE GONZALO IMPACT THE AREA WATERS. SEAS FALL
BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ON MONDAY AND REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
LEVEL CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
PLEASE REFER TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR THE LATEST
FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY INFORMATION.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A SLOW MOVING LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ALLOW FOR HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AT TIMES TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...ENDING FROM WEST TO
EAST THURSDAY. TOTAL RAINFALL DURING THIS TIME FRAME SHOULD
AVERAGE AROUND 1 1/2 INCHES. A RANGE OF 1 TO 3 INCHES PER ENSEMBLE
SOLUTIONS. DEPENDING ON WHERE EXACTLY HEAVIER BANDS
DEVELOP...LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE DEFINITELY POSSIBLE. LOW
LYING...POOR DRAINAGE...AND URBAN FLOODING ARE LIKELY.
AFTER THURSDAY NIGHT NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIP EXPECTED.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
UPDATE...PW
AVIATION...JM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
825 PM EDT WED OCT 15 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL TRACK EAST TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY
INTO THURSDAY EVENING. LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING TO THE SOUTHWEST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY AFFECT THE AREA
NEXT TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FOR WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
PLENTY OF LOW TOPPED CONVECTION IN AN INCREASING MOIST ENVIRONMENT
CONTINUES JUST TO THE WEST. BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS...AND
UPDATED HRRR SIM REFL FORECASTS...EXPECT BROKEN AREAS OF HEAVY
SHOWERS TO TRAVERSE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. THE WHOLE AREA THOUGH
WILL SLOWLY TRANSLATE EAST. CHANGED WEATHER WORDING IN COVERAGE
TERMS FOR OCCASIONAL HEAVY SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS.
WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR TRAINING OF CELLS.
SOUTH WINDS WILL RESULT IN VERY WARM TEMPS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW BECOMES NEGATIVE THURSDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING
SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING. PRECIPITATION DOES
END ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES IN THE MORNING BUT WILL TAKE MOST OF
THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING TO END EAST AS THE TROUGH BECOMES EVEN
MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED. SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY REMAINS INTO
THURSDAY SO CONTINUE WITH THE ISOLATED THUNDER AND HEAVY RAINFALL.
THE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT LIFT NORTH AND EAST LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT TOWARD FRIDAY MORNING AS UPPER FLOW THEN BECOMES MORE ZONAL
AND WEAK HIGH BUILDS TO THE SOUTHWEST. ACROSS THE WESTERN SECTIONS
HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE EARLY IN THE DAY ALTHOUGH THERE IS NOT GOING TO
BE A SURGE OF MUCH COLDER AIR.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. A DRY COLD FRONT SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...RESULTING IN A DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE AROUND 70...THEN FALL INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 50S BY SUNDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY NIGHT WILL
BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S...THEN FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
BY SUNDAY NIGHT. LOWS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH SUN NIGHT FOR THE
POSSIBILITY FOR FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA. THE AIR WILL
PROBABLY BE TOO DRY TO SUPPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION.
TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. DRY
CONDITIONS RETURN WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES IN THROUGH
THURSDAY. MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WITH OCCASIONAL IFR
BEFORE BECOMING PREVAILING IFR OVERNIGHT AT MAINLY CITY TERMINALS
AND NORTHWEST. TO THE EAST...IT WILL TAKE A FEW HOURS LONGER FOR
MVFR AND THEN IFR TO MATERIALIZE.
SHOWERS WILL BE OVERALL INTERMITTENT TONIGHT WITH THE HEAVIEST OF
RAIN TOWARDS DAYBREAK...WHEN LIFR WILL BE POSSIBLE. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO FORECAST BUT TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN TIME
AND LOCATION FOR INCLUSION IN TAFS.
WINDS...SE TO S THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...10-15 KT WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS 20-25 KT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. LOW LEVEL
JET OF 50 KT AT 2KFT OVERNIGHT. HIGHER GUSTS...PERHAPS 30-35 KT
POSSIBLE WITH SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR AND SHOWER TIMING COULD VARY 2-4 HOURS
FROM FORECAST. THERE MAY EVEN BE A PERIOD TONIGHT WHERE IT IS
MOSTLY DRY. AMENDMENTS LIKELY TO REFINE TIMING OF SHOWERS AND
MVFR/IFR.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR AND SHOWER TIMING COULD VARY 2-4 HOURS
FROM FORECAST. THERE MAY EVEN BE A PERIOD TONIGHT WHERE IT IS
MOSTLY DRY. AMENDMENTS LIKELY TO REFINE TIMING OF SHOWERS AND
MVFR/IFR.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR AND SHOWER TIMING COULD VARY 2-4 HOURS
FROM FORECAST. THERE MAY EVEN BE A PERIOD TONIGHT WHERE IT IS
MOSTLY DRY. AMENDMENTS LIKELY TO REFINE TIMING OF SHOWERS AND
MVFR/IFR.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR AND SHOWER TIMING COULD VARY 2-4 HOURS
FROM FORECAST. THERE MAY EVEN BE A PERIOD TONIGHT WHERE IT IS
MOSTLY DRY. AMENDMENTS LIKELY TO REFINE TIMING OF SHOWERS AND
MVFR/IFR.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR AND SHOWER TIMING COULD VARY 2-4 HOURS
FROM FORECAST. THERE MAY EVEN BE A PERIOD TONIGHT WHERE IT IS
MOSTLY DRY. AMENDMENTS LIKELY TO REFINE TIMING OF SHOWERS AND
MVFR/IFR.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR AND SHOWER TIMING COULD VARY 2-4 HOURS
FROM FORECAST. THERE MAY EVEN BE A PERIOD TONIGHT WHERE IT IS
MOSTLY DRY. AMENDMENTS LIKELY TO REFINE TIMING OF SHOWERS AND
MVFR/IFR.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRI THROUGH MON...
.THU NIGHT...VFR. S WINDS 5-10 KT...DECREASING AND BECOMING MORE
WESTERLY.
.FRI-SAT...VFR. WSW WINDS 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KT.
.SUN..VFR. WNW WINDS AROUND 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT.
.MON...VFR. W WINDS 5-10 KT.
&&
.MARINE...
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND PERSISTS ON THE AREA WATERS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE HIGHEST WIND AND GUSTS WILL BE TONIGHT
AS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE AS THE FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE
REGION. MINIMAL SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ARE LIKELY ON THE OCEAN WATERS
TONIGHT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WATERS. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS WERE 4 TO
5 FT EARLY THIS EVENING AND WILL BUILD THROUGH THE NIGHT IN THE
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW. ONCE THE WINDS SUBSIDE AND THEN SHIFT
TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT LATE IN THE DAY
INTO THE EVENING THURSDAY...SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL REMAIN AT
SMALL CRAFT THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT.
SEAS WILL REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS PREVAIL BEHIND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SWELLS
FROM DISTANT HURRICANE GONZALO IMPACT THE AREA WATERS. SEAS FALL
BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ON MONDAY AND REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
LEVEL CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
PLEASE REFER TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR THE LATEST
FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY INFORMATION.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A SLOW MOVING LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ALLOW FOR HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AT TIMES TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...ENDING FROM WEST TO
EAST THURSDAY. TOTAL RAINFALL DURING THIS TIME FRAME SHOULD
AVERAGE AROUND 1 1/2 INCHES. A RANGE OF 1 TO 3 INCHES PER ENSEMBLE
SOLUTIONS. DEPENDING ON WHERE EXACTLY HEAVIER BANDS
DEVELOP...LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE DEFINITELY POSSIBLE. LOW
LYING...POOR DRAINAGE...AND URBAN FLOODING ARE LIKELY.
AFTER THURSDAY NIGHT NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIP EXPECTED.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
UPDATE...PW
AVIATION...JM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1042 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014
.UPDATE...
MOST RECENT SPC OUTLOOK HAS PUSHED JUST A TAD BIT SOUTH WITH SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE STORMS NOW MENTIONED FOR PORTIONS OF PASCO...HERNANDO
AND SUMTER COUNTIES NORTH INTO LEVY. MORNING UPDATE WHICH WAS SENT
OUT ALREADY THIS MORNING INCLUDED THE MENTION OF GUSTY WINDS IN THE
GRIDS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NATURE COAST. THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT THAT HAS BEEN OFFSHORE THIS MORNING HAS GRADUALLY DIMINISHED
IN INTENSITY AS IT APPROACHED THE GULF COAST. THAT BEING SAID...SHOWERS
WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS NEAR THE COAST FROM TAMPA BAY SOUTHWARD.
FOR THE AFTERNOON...MOST RECENT HRRR GUIDANCE IS MUCH MORE ROBUST THAN
THE PAST FEW RUNS ON RE-DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/STORMS OFFSHORE BEFORE
GRADUALLY PUSHING INLAND. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR TSTM
DEVELOPMENT DO NOT SEE A REASON TO ADJUST THE CURRENT FORECAST ALL THAT
MUCH. WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE SOME CHANGES THROUGHOUT THE DAY TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS AS WELL AS LATEST FORECAST THINKING HOWEVER.
&&
.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH LOCALIZED
REDUCTIONS TO MVFR/IFR LIKELY IN THE STRONGEST STORMS. CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
WILL LINGER DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAY TOMORROW BEFORE THE
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8PM THIS EVENING FOR THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL COASTAL WATERS AS LOCAL HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST THAT WINDS
NEAR 20 KTS MAY PERSIST AHEAD OF THE FRONT UNTIL THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AS THE DAY PROGRESSES WHILE THE COLD
FRONT IS LOCATED FAR OFFSHORE STILL. STORMS WILL BE A THREAT FOR THE
REST OF THE DAY AND INTO THE DAY TOMORROW WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 85 75 81 65 / 60 50 40 10
FMY 87 76 85 66 / 50 40 50 20
GIF 86 74 83 63 / 60 40 40 10
SRQ 85 76 82 64 / 70 50 40 10
BKV 85 72 80 53 / 70 50 30 10
SPG 85 76 82 69 / 70 60 40 10
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL
MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO
TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO
SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE
RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
UPDATE/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...11/MCKAUGHAN
MARINE...007/DOUGHERTY AND 11/MCKAUGHAN
DECISION SUPPORT...69/CLOSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSONVILLE FL
415 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014
...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WED...
SYNOPSIS...A ROBUST PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE WAS ONGOING EARLY THIS MORNING
OVER THE FL PANHANDLE...WITH THE TRAILING SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHING
MOBILE BAY. THE PARENT STACKED LOW PRESSURE CENTERS WERE PHASING OVER
THE MIDWEST...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS STILL DIGGING SOUTHWARD
TOWARD THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. SPOKES OF PVA WERE ROTATING AROUND
THE STACKED LOW...THE STRONGEST LOBE FUELING THE CURRENT PRE-FRONTAL
SQUALL LINE...WITH ANOTHER WEAKER SPOKE OF ENERGY ROTATING ENE OVER
THE EASTERN GULF COAST NEAR APALACHEE BAY WHERE A FEW CLUSTERS OF TSTORMS
WERE FIRING THIS HOUR.
THIS MORNING...A FEW MORNING COASTAL WILL SKIRT THE ATLANTIC COAST
WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER FROM THE WEST. BREEZY SOUTH WINDS WILL
NEAR 15 MPH AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE RIVER BASIN AND COAST
BY MID-MORNING AS TEMPS RISE INTO THE MID 80S BY NOON UNDER WARM
AIR ADVECTION. PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL APPROACH THE
SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY FROM APALACHEE BAY...WITH THE HRRR SHOWING
ROBUST ACTIVITY IN THE GULF FADING AS IT SHIFTS INLAND THROUGH
MIDDAY...WITH AREAS EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 301 CORRIDOR REMAINING DRY
LESS A STRAY EARLY MORNING COASTAL SHOWER.
THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT...BY EARLY AFTN...THE COMBINATION OF DAYTIME
HEATING AND THE APPROACH OF PVA WILL FUEL A BLOSSOMING OF
SHOWERS/TSTORMS ACROSS INLAND AREAS PRESSING STEADILY EASTWARD
TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. STRONG
WINDS GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN GIVEN SHEAR
PROFILES...WITH ROTATING CELLS ALSO POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER SE
GA AND THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY WHERE BULK SHEAR WILL BE
STRONGEST. AFTER THE INITIAL CLUSTER OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN PRECIP
SHIFTS OFFSHORE OF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD THIS EVENING...ANOTHER
ROBUST LINE OF PRECIP WILL EDGE EASTWARD ALONG THE ACTUAL COLD
FRONT ENTERING OUR WESTERN ZONES AND SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY ZONES
AROUND 03Z BASED ON MODEL CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE GFS40/NAM12. THE
HEAVY LINE OF TSTORMS WILL LIKELY DECREASE IN INTENSITY WITH THE
LOSS OF HEATING TONIGHT AND AS STRONGER DYNAMICS LIFT NE OF THE
AREA AS THE PARENT SYSTEM FINALLY LIFTS OUT. EXCEPT A GRADUAL
SPLIT IN PRECIP CORE TONIGHT AS THE SQUALL LINE APPROACHES THE JAX
METRO AREA...WITH ONE CORE LIFTING NE WITH DYNAMICS AND THE OTHER
EDGING INLAND OVER OUR SOUTHERN FL ZONES WHERE GULF INSTABILITY
WILL BE HIGHER.
WED...A FEW RUMBLES OF EARLY MORNING THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE TRAILING
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE OVER COASTAL GA AND NE FL...WITH MAINLY SHOWER
ACTIVITY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THROUGH MIDDAY. AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GULF REGION BUILDS OVER THE LOCAL AREA...WEST
WINDS WILL PREVAIL WITH DRIER AIR EDGING IN BY MIDDAY WITH DEW
PTS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S OVER INLAND SE GA AND THE SUWANNEE
RIVER VALLEY DURING THE AFTN. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S
OVER OUR NORTHERN SE GA ZONES TO LOWER 80 ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN FL
ZONES AS SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY.
THURSDAY...A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE AS UPPER TROUGH AXIS
SHIFTS EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR CLIMO LEVELS. MORNING LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 50S WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS 75 TO 80 DEGREES.
.LONG TERM...
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AT SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
PROVIDE DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND BECOME DIFFUSE WITH LITTLE EFFECTS. MAX
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH MIN TEMPERATURES NEAR AVERAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...
A FEW COASTAL SHOWERS MAY SKIRT NEAR SSI AND CRG EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH A BRIEF SHOT OF MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO BKN CIGS NEAR 3KFT. CLOUD
COVER WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN FROM THE SSW THROUGH THE DAY IN ADVANCE
OF COLD FRONT...WITH A COUPLE OF BANDS OF PRE- FRONTAL PRECIP EXPECTED
TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT 36 HRS. BY MIDDAY...A BAND OF
PRECIP WILL LIKELY BE EDGING INLAND FROM THE GULF COAST REGION SHIFTING
ENE INTO THE LATTER PART OF THE AFTN. INTRODUCED PREVAILING TSRA BETWEEN
18-19Z FOR ALL TERMINALS...AND CONTINUED PRECIP THROUGH LATE TUE NIGHT
WITH A LIKELY CONTINUATION OF OFF- AND-ON SHOWER AND STORMS ACTIVITY
UNTIL A MORE ORGANIZED LINE OF SHOWERS/TSTORMS ALONG THE ACTUAL COLD
FRONT OVERNIGHT. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP IN CONVECTION THIS
AFTN WITH BREAKS TO VFR...THEN MVFR TO IFR OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONTAL
PRECIP MOVES ACROSS THE TERMINALS. MAY NEED TO INCLUDE WIND SHEAR IN
THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE FOR TUE NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE LOCAL WATERS FROM THE WEST TODAY
AND TONIGHT...PRECEDED BY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
CONTINUED WITH EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES WITH SOUTH WINDS 15-20
KTS THIS MORNING...THEN ADVISORY CONDITIONS TONIGHT OVER THE
OFFSHORE WATERS WITH WINDS NEAR 20 KTS. STRONG WIND GUSTS CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE
THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE GULF
REGION THURSDAY TRAILING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH OFFSHORE FLOW
EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS WILL RELAX WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER
COMBINED SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED INTO THE WEEKEND DUE TO
EASTERLY SWELLS FROM DISTANT HURRICANE GONZALO.
RIP CURRENTS: A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED TODAY
DUE TO INCREASED SOUTH FLOW 15-20 KTS AND A CONTINUATION OF LONG
PERIOD EAST SWELLS OF 2 FT WITH 10-11 SECOND PERIODS. A LOW RISK
IS ANTICIPATED FOR WED AT THIS TIME DUE TO OFFSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPING...HOWEVER EAST SWELLS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. RH`S WILL FALL INTO THE 30`S. INCREASED TRANPORT WINDS AND
MIXING HEIGHTS WILL ALSO PRODUCE HIGH DISPERION INDICES WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. NO RED FLAG HEADLINES NEEDED.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES MAY BE CHALLENGED THIS MORNING.
BELOW ARE RECORD HIGH MIN TEMPS FOR OCTOBER 14TH:
SITE VALUE/YEAR
JAX 76/1912
GNV 74/1912
AMG 72/1995
SSI 75/1986
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 81 65 76 55 / 90 80 20 0
SSI 81 70 77 60 / 80 80 70 0
JAX 87 70 80 57 / 80 80 60 0
SGJ 86 72 80 60 / 80 70 60 10
GNV 86 69 79 57 / 80 80 40 0
OCF 88 70 81 58 / 80 80 50 0
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20
NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20
NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM
TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.
&&
$$
ENYEDI/ZIBURA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
203 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN TODAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD FROM THE WEST THROUGH LATE WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT
COULD EFFECT THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TODAY WITH A CLOSED
LOW POSITIONED OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A STRONG
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WELL OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...WHILE A
POTENT COLD FRONT STRETCHING ACROSS EASTERN TN...WESTERN GA AND
THE CENTRAL FL PANHANDLE AS OF EARLY AFTERNOON SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST.
SCATTERED CELLULAR CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST GA AND FAR SOUTHERN SC EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER CONCERN
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
EVENING AS A LINEAR CONVECTIVE LINE APPROACHES IN ADVANCE OF THE
COLD FRONT WHERE THE STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE FOUND.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY TO HOW MUCH THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE ABLE
TO DESTABILIZE IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT GIVEN THE INCREASING
HIGH LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDINESS...BUT WITH TEMPERATURES ALREADY IN
THE LOWER TO MID 80S AND DEW POINTS IN THE 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA THIS MAY NOT A BIG ENOUGH NEGATING FACTOR.
MOST OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MESOSCALE MODELS...INCLUDING THE
HRRR...RUC13...AND OUR LOCALLY RUN 4KM WRF MODELS...SHOW THE
LINEAR CONVECTIVE LINE ENTERING FAR INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
AFTER 3 OR 4 PM...MOVING THROUGH THE SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY EARLY
THIS EVENING...THEN INTO COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA LATE THIS EVENING
INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. HRRR MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW CAPE
VALUES REMAINING ELEVATED ABOVE 1000 J/KG THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EVENING...WITH SOME BACKING OF THE WINDS OCCURRING NEAR THE
SURFACE RESULTING IN SOME CLOCKWISE CURVATURE IN THE HODOGRAPH.
THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN
STRONG 30-40 KT LOW LEVEL JETTING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW WEAK SHORT-LIVED TORNADOES WITHIN
BOWING/BROKEN LINE SEGMENTS GIVEN THE SHEAR PROFILES.
OVERALL...THE SEVERE THREAT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD AND
THE CURRENT SLIGHT RISK FROM SPC SEEMS REASONABLE. IN ADDITION...THE
SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES AND STORMS
APPROACH THE SC COAST GIVEN LESSENING INSTABILITY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD REACH IN TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA....EXCEPT LOWER 80S ACROSS FAR INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. CONDITIONS WILL
ALSO BE BREEZY AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW GUSTS UPWARDS
OF AROUND 25 MPH POSSIBLE.
OVERNIGHT...THE STRONGEST CONVECTION WILL WORK ITS WAY OFFSHORE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT EARLY...BUT COULD NOT RULE OUT SOME ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS UNTIL THE ACTUAL FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT OFFSHORE BY
DAYBREAK...BUT ONGOING SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY
EAST OF INTERSTATE 95 AS MOISTURE LINGERS OVER THE AREA AND
ADDITIONAL FORCING OCCURS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID/UPPER LVL LOW PASSING TO OUR NORTH. ACTIVITY SHOULD QUICKLY
SHIFT EAST AND OFFSHORE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT A FEW SHOWERS
COULD LINGER OVER THE TRI- COUNTY AREA WHERE FORCING FROM THE
MID/UPPER LVL LOW IS GREATEST. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS WILL BE COOLER
POST FROPA...BUT A DOWNSLOPING WIND COMPONENT SHOULD OFFSET MOST
COLD-AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PASSING TO OUR NORTH.
IN GENERAL...HIGH TEMPS WILL PEAK IN THE UPPER 70S OVER MOST
LOCATIONS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SHIFTING
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. EXPECT TEMPS TO BE SOME 10-15 DEGREES
COOLER...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS REACHING THE LOW/MID 50S AWAY FROM THE
COAST.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MUCH QUIETER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS DRY
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD FROM THE WEST UNDER A ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT. TEMPS SHOULD SLOWLY MODIFY THROUGH EARLY WEEKEND WITH
SUBSTANTIAL SUNSHINE AND A DOWNSLOPING WIND COMPONENT IN PLACE. IN
GENERAL...AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE IN THE UPPER 70S ON
THURSDAY...THEN AROUND 80 ON FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE IN
THE LOW/MID 50S AWAY FROM THE COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH DRY
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE PATTERN UNDER A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. TEMPS
WILL SLOWLY MODIFY TO THE LOWER 80S THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD ALSO SHOW A GRADUAL WARMING TREND...FROM
MID/UPPER 50S FRIDAY NIGHT TO UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT COULD EFFECT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT
IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL...THUS HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST
THROUGH MONDAY. PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD THEN INCREASE AS WE HEAD INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPRAOCH FROM THE WEST AND MOVE ACROSS
THE TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP...WITH A LINEAR LINE OF STRONGER
COVECTION EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE FRONT NEARS. SHOWERS WILL THEN LINGER
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS UNTIL THE ACTUAL
FRONT PASSES.
AT KCHS...THE FORECAST INDICATES VFR WITH SOME SHOWERS IN THE
VICINITY INTO EARLY EVENING...WITH THE LINE OF STRONGER COVECTION
MOVING THROUGH IN THE 02-06Z TIME FRAME. THIS LINE WILL LIKELY BE
ACCOMPANYIED BY THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS AND
MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS.
AT KSAV...THE FORECAST INDICATES VFR WITH SOME SHOWERS THROUGH
MID/LATE AFTERNOON...WITH THE LINE OF STRONGER COVECTION MOVING
THROUGH IN THE 22-02Z TIME FRAME. THIS LINE WILL LIKELY BE
ACCOMPANYIED BY THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS AND
MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CHANCES OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AT
EITHER TERMINAL WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT SHIFTS
OFFSHORE WITH SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
THEN EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEEK
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA.
&&
.MARINE...
A STEADY ONSHORE COMPONENT FROM THE SE HAS BEEN BUILDING SEAS AT A
SLOW BUT STEADY CLIP. THE ONSHORE TRAJECTORY AND FORECAST OF
CLOSE TO 20 KT AT TIMES OFFSHORE HAVE PUSHED SEAS INTO THE MARGINAL
4-6 FT RANGE INTO ALL NEAR SHORE WATERS AND WE HAVE RAISED SMALL
CRAFT FLAGS FOR ALL COASTAL ZONES. WE INITIALIZED WITH SCA OVER
ALL COASTAL WATERS AND THEY WILL CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST LATER
TONIGHT. IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR... NEIGHBORING WATER TEMPS DOWN
A BIT FROM ADJACENT LAND MASS TEMP EXPECTATIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND
WE CAPPED SSE FLOW AT 15-20 KT.
A BIG POTENTIAL RISK FOR MARINERS THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WOULD BE STRONG LINEAR CONVECTION DRIVING OFF THE COAST
WITH RISKS FOR WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35 KT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE ONGOING FOR MUCH OF THE WATERS INTO DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY
WHILE A STRONG COLD FRONT SHIFTS OVER THE WATERS. THE ENHANCED
GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT SHOULD PRODUCE WIND GUSTS AS HIGH
AS 20-25 KT WHILE VEERING FROM SOUTH TO WEST/SOUTHWEST AND SEAS
NEAR 4-6 FT IN NEARSHORE WATERS AND 6-7 FT IN OFFSHORE GEORGIA
WATERS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AS THE
FRONT SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. LATEST TRENDS
INDICATE THAT BOTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL DECREASE/SUBSIDE TO BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS BY LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY. THUS ALL
SCA/S WILL LIKELY END BY 18Z WEDNESDAY.
WE COULD SEE ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF SURGING WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS A MID/UPPER LVL LOW BEGINS TO SHIFT OFFSHORE LATE...BUT
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. WINDS/SEAS WILL
THEN SLOWLY IMPROVE MID TO LATE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE WATERS...BUT LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM DISTANT TC GONZALO WILL
LIKELY IMPACT THE LOCAL WATERS THURSDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
RIP CURRENTS...A SMALL LINGERING BACK SWELL ALONG WITH SOUTH AND SE
WINDS AT 15-20 MPH WILL SUPPORT A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT
THE BEACHES TODAY.
&&
.CLIMATE...
OCTOBER 14 RECORD MAX TEMPS...
KCHS...88 1990 AND PREVIOUS YEARS.
KCXM...85 1975
KSAV...88 1995 AND PREVIOUS YEARS.
OCTOBER 14 RECORD HIGH MIN TEMPS...
KCHS...71 1986
KCXM...74 1997
KSAV...72 1883
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ352-354.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ350-374.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...JAQ
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...JAQ
MARINE...DPB
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
1217 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN TODAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD FROM THE WEST THROUGH LATE WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT
COULD EFFECT THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TODAY WITH A CLOSED
LOW POSITIONED OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A STRONG
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WELL OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...WHILE A
POTENT COLD FRONT STRETCHING ACROSS CENTRAL TN...THE AL/GA STATE
LATE AND THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE AS OF MIDDAY SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST.
THE EARLIER THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER HAS ENDED AS THE IMMEDIATE
UPSTREAM CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED AND HAD ITS EASTWARD PROGRESS
SLOWED SIGNIFICANTLY BY THE AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. FOR
THESE REASON THE TORNADO WATCH ISSUED EARLIER WAS CANCELLED AS OF
1015 AM FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST GA AND SOUTHEAST SC.
STRATIFORM RAINS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WORK INTO FAR INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CONCERN FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING AS
A LINEAR CONVECTIVE LINE APPROACHES IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT
WHERE THE STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE FOUND. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY TO HOW MUCH THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE ABLE TO DESTABILIZE
IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT GIVEN THE INCREASING HIGH LEVEL
DEBRIS CLOUDINESS...BUT WITH TEMPERATURES ALREADY IN THE LOWER TO
MID 80S AND DEW POINTS IN THE 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MAY
NOT A BIG ENOUGH NEGATING FACTOR.
MOST OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MESOSCALE MODELS...INCLUDING THE
HRRR...RUC13...AND OUR LOCALLY RUN 4KM WRF MODELS...SHOW THE
LINEAR CONVECTIVE LINE ENTERING FAR INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
AFTER 3 OR 4 PM...MOVING THROUGH THE SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY EARLY
THIS EVENING...THEN INTO COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA LATE THIS EVENING
INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. HRRR MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW CAPE
VALUES REMAINING ELEVATED ABOVE 1000 J/KG THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EVENING...WITH SOME BACKING OF THE WINDS OCCURRING NEAR THE
SURFACE RESULTING IN SOME CLOCKWISE CURVATURE IN THE HODOGRAPH.
THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN
STRONG 30-40 KT LOW LEVEL JETTING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW WEAK SHORT-LIVED TORNADOES WITHIN
BOWING/BROKEN LINE SEGMENTS GIVEN THE SHEAR PROFILES.
OVERALL...THE SEVERE THREAT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD AND
THE CURRENT SLIGHT RISK FROM SPC SEEMS REASONABLE. IN ADDITION...THE
SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES AND STORMS
APPROACH THE SC COAST GIVEN LESSENING INSTABILITY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD REACH IN TO THE LOWER AND MID 80S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. CONDITIONS COULD ALSO BECOME BREEZY AT
TIMES THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW GUSTS UPWARDS OF 20-25 MPH
POSSIBLE.
OVERNIGHT...THE STRONGEST CONVECTION WILL WORK ITS WAY OFFSHORE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT EARLY...BUT COULD NOT RULE OUT SOME ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS UNTIL THE ACTUAL FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT OFFSHORE BY
DAYBREAK...BUT ONGOING SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY
EAST OF INTERSTATE 95 AS MOISTURE LINGERS OVER THE AREA AND
ADDITIONAL FORCING OCCURS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID/UPPER LVL LOW PASSING TO OUR NORTH. ACTIVITY SHOULD QUICKLY
SHIFT EAST AND OFFSHORE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT A FEW SHOWERS
COULD LINGER OVER THE TRI- COUNTY AREA WHERE FORCING FROM THE
MID/UPPER LVL LOW IS GREATEST. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS WILL BE COOLER
POST FROPA...BUT A DOWNSLOPING WIND COMPONENT SHOULD OFFSET MOST
COLD-AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PASSING TO OUR NORTH.
IN GENERAL...HIGH TEMPS WILL PEAK IN THE UPPER 70S OVER MOST
LOCATIONS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SHIFTING
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. EXPECT TEMPS TO BE SOME 10-15 DEGREES
COOLER...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS REACHING THE LOW/MID 50S AWAY FROM THE
COAST.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MUCH QUIETER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS DRY
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD FROM THE WEST UNDER A ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT. TEMPS SHOULD SLOWLY MODIFY THROUGH EARLY WEEKEND WITH
SUBSTANTIAL SUNSHINE AND A DOWNSLOPING WIND COMPONENT IN PLACE. IN
GENERAL...AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE IN THE UPPER 70S ON
THURSDAY...THEN AROUND 80 ON FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE IN
THE LOW/MID 50S AWAY FROM THE COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH DRY
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE PATTERN UNDER A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. TEMPS
WILL SLOWLY MODIFY TO THE LOWER 80S THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD ALSO SHOW A GRADUAL WARMING TREND...FROM
MID/UPPER 50S FRIDAY NIGHT TO UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT COULD EFFECT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT
IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL...THUS HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST
THROUGH MONDAY. PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD THEN INCREASE AS WE HEAD INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WE HAVE NUDGED TSRA CHANCES UP SOONER INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AT
KSAV AND LATER AFTERNOON AT KCHS GIVEN LATEST REGION RADAR TRENDS
AT 1130Z. HIGH CLOUDS WILL THICKEN THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS UNTIL RAINS ARRIVE LATER TODAY. TONIGHT UNSETTLED
WEATHER WITH CHANCES FOR TSTMS...HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES WITH MVFR/IFR
VSBYS AT TIMES IN DOWNPOURS. HEAVIER RAINS SHOULD SHIFT INTO SE
SOUTH CAROLINA AFTER MIDNIGHT...DIMINISHING AT KSAV LATE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...HIGH CHANCES OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AT
EITHER TERMINAL WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT SHIFTS
OFFSHORE WITH SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEEK WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA.
&&
.MARINE...
A STEADY ONSHORE COMPONENT FROM THE SE HAS BEEN BUILDING SEAS AT A
SLOW BUT STEADY CLIP. THE ONSHORE TRAJECTORY AND FORECAST OF
CLOSE TO 20 KT AT TIMES OFFSHORE HAVE PUSHED SEAS INTO THE MARGINAL
4-6 FT RANGE INTO ALL NEAR SHORE WATERS AND WE HAVE RAISED SMALL
CRAFT FLAGS FOR ALL COASTAL ZONES. WE INITIALIZED WITH SCA OVER
ALL COASTAL WATERS AND THEY WILL CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST LATER
TONIGHT. IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR... NEIGHBORING WATER TEMPS DOWN
A BIT FROM ADJACENT LAND MASS TEMP EXPECTATIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND
WE CAPPED SSE FLOW AT 15-20 KT.
A BIG POTENTIAL RISK FOR MARINERS THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WOULD BE STRONG LINEAR CONVECTION DRIVING OFF THE COAST
WITH RISKS FOR WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35 KT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE ONGOING FOR MUCH OF THE WATERS INTO DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY
WHILE A STRONG COLD FRONT SHIFTS OVER THE WATERS. THE ENHANCED
GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT SHOULD PRODUCE WIND GUSTS AS HIGH
AS 20-25 KT WHILE VEERING FROM SOUTH TO WEST/SOUTHWEST AND SEAS
NEAR 4-6 FT IN NEARSHORE WATERS AND 6-7 FT IN OFFSHORE GEORGIA
WATERS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AS THE
FRONT SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. LATEST TRENDS
INDICATE THAT BOTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL DECREASE/SUBSIDE TO BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS BY LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY. THUS ALL
SCA/S WILL LIKELY END BY 18Z WEDNESDAY.
WE COULD SEE ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF SURGING WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS A MID/UPPER LVL LOW BEGINS TO SHIFT OFFSHORE LATE...BUT
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. WINDS/SEAS WILL
THEN SLOWLY IMPROVE MID TO LATE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE WATERS...BUT LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM DISTANT TC GONZALO WILL
LIKELY IMPACT THE LOCAL WATERS THURSDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
RIP CURRENTS...A SMALL LINGERING BACK SWELL ALONG WITH SOUTH AND SE
WINDS AT 15-20 MPH WILL SUPPORT A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT
THE BEACHES TODAY.
&&
.CLIMATE...
OCTOBER 14 RECORD MAX TEMPS...
KCHS...88 1990 AND PREVIOUS YEARS.
KCXM...85 1975
KSAV...88 1995 AND PREVIOUS YEARS.
OCTOBER 14 RECORD HIGH MIN TEMPS...
KCHS...71 1986
KCXM...74 1997
KSAV...72 1883
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ352-354.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ350-374.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...JAQ
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...
MARINE...DPB
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
810 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST WILL DIRECT A
MOIST ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT
MAY LINGER IN THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY BUT DEEPER MOISTURE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL SHIFT EASTWARD EARLY AND THE SHOWER CHANCE
WILL DIMINISH.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH 2PM. THIS MORNING...DYNAMIC STORM SYSTEM TO THE WEST
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE STRONG STORMS AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS
EASTERN AL/TN/CENTRAL GA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING
FASTER THAN MODELS HAVE SHOWN.
THE THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL INCREASE BY MIDDAY AS
A LINE OF CONVECTION RE-INTENSIFIES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. HAVE SPED UP POP TIMING BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS. HRRR
AND RAP SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY HAVE BEEN A COUPLE OF HOURS BEHIND
WITH TIMING ON THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS. TIMING IS DIURNALLY
FAVORABLE WITH THE MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION EXPECTED TO REACH THE
CSRA WITHIN THE 18Z TO 20Z TIME FRAME. CONVECTIVE ANALYSIS REVEALS
MODERATE INSTABILITY BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH CAPE AROUND 1000 TO
1500 J/KG. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR
PROFILES WITH 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR AROUND 30 TO 35 KNOTS. THE MAIN
THREAT WILL LIKELY BE STRONG WINDS. TORNADO THREAT IN DISCRETE
CELLS AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN ADDITION TO SMALL
HAIL. THE NAM AND GFS SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASING TO NEAR 2
INCHES TOWARD THE END OF THE DAY WHICH INDICATES POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN PROMOTING
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS TODAY WITH GUSTS NEAR 20
TO 25 KNOTS. EXPECT A GRADIENT IN TEMPERATURES FROM WEST TO EAST
TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S WEST TO MIDDLE 80S EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE SLOW WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE CURRENT
ACTIVITY...BUT FOR THE MOST PART THE MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
THIS EVENING...PROBABLY ALONG A PREFRONTAL TROUGH. INSTABILITY
SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT THE SHEAR ACROSS
THE REGION WILL BE STRONG. STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS
WILL BE MOVING OVER THE FORECAST AREA...AND THIS WILL BE COUPLED
WITH AN EVEN STRONGER MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET. MUCH OF THE ENERGY
WILL BE PARALLEL TO THE MAIN UPPER FLOW...AND WHEN YOU ADD IN PW
VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES THIS EVENING...WE CAN EXPECT PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL. BULK OF THE ACTIVITY THIS EVENING WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH BETWEEN 00Z-05Z...THEN EXPECT LIGHTER SHOWERS AND STORMS
AS THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY MOVES EAST OF THE CWA. SHOWERS SHOULD
LINGER OVERNIGHT...BUT CHANCES FOR RAINFALL WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH
TOWARDS WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE MAIN FRONT MOVES INTO AND THROUGH
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES NOT EXPECTED TO FALL MUCH THROUGH THE
EVENING AND EVEN THROUGH MIDNIGHT. EXPECT BEST TEMPERATURE DROP TO
BE AFTER MIDNIGHT ONCE THE MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS PUSHING
THROUGH THE AREA.
FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN FRONT WILL BE PUSHING
EAST OF THE CWA EARLY IN THE DAY...ALONG WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE.
HOWEVER DUE TO THE MAIN UPPER LOW STILL WEST OF THE CWA...WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE UPSTATE AND
POSSIBLY EXTREME WESTERN CWA. EVEN SO...HAVE DRIED THE FORECAST
OUT ACROSS THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS DURING THE DAY
WILL BE COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH READINGS IN THE MIDDLE 70S.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL SEE A DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS ACROSS THE
REGION. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN UP OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S...WITH
ISOLATED SPOTS POSSIBLY REACHING THE UPPER 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONGER TERM MODELS STILL INDICATING A DRY FORECAST PATTERN THROUGH
THE MAJORITY OF THE LONGER TERM PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE IN THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WITH RIDGING ALONG THE GULF COAST SHOULD DIRECT A DRY
WESTERLY FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA EARLY. THE MODELS SHOW A WEAK
FRONT WILL LITTLE CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE SATURDAY WITH RIDGING
DOMINATING SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE GUIDANCE SUPPORTS NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS LIKELY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING INTO
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A LINE OF HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER AREA AFTER 12Z. MVFR AND BRIEF IFR
VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE AS THE LINE SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
MIDLANDS BY LATE MORNING. STRONG WIND GUSTS OF 25 KNOTS OR HIGHER
ARE LIKELY WITH THE HEAVIER STORMS AND ALSO AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY PUSHING EAST ACROSS ALABAMA. FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS SC
WILL OCCUR LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION
TAPERING OFF.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS EAST.
OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED WITH A
DRIER AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE AREA.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
720 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST WILL DIRECT A
MOIST ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT
MAY LINGER IN THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY BUT DEEPER MOISTURE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL SHIFT EASTWARD EARLY AND THE SHOWER CHANCE
WILL DIMINISH.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH 2PM. THIS MORNING...DYNAMIC STORM SYSTEM TO THE WEST
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE STRONG STORMS AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS
EASTERN AL/TN/CENTRAL GA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING
FASTER THAN MODELS HAVE SHOWN.
THE THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL INCREASE BY MIDDAY AS
A LINE OF CONVECTION RE-INTENSIFIES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. HAVE SPED UP POP TIMING BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS. HRRR
AND RAP SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY HAVE BEEN A COUPLE OF HOURS BEHIND
WITH TIMING ON THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS. TIMING IS DIURNALLY
FAVORABLE WITH THE MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION EXPECTED TO REACH THE
CSRA WITHIN THE 18Z TO 20Z TIME FRAME. CONVECTIVE ANALYSIS REVEALS
MODERATE INSTABILITY BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH CAPE AROUND 1000 TO
1500 J/KG. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR
PROFILES WITH 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR AROUND 30 TO 35 KNOTS. THE MAIN
THREAT WILL LIKELY BE STRONG WINDS. TORNADO THREAT IN DISCRETE
CELLS AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN ADDITION TO SMALL
HAIL. THE NAM AND GFS SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASING TO NEAR 2
INCHES TOWARD THE END OF THE DAY WHICH INDICATES POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN PROMOTING
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS TODAY WITH GUSTS NEAR 20
TO 25 KNOTS. EXPECT A GRADIENT IN TEMPERATURES FROM WEST TO EAST
TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S WEST TO MIDDLE 80S EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE SLOW WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE CURRENT
ACTIVITY...BUT FOR THE MOST PART THE MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
THIS EVENING...PROBABLY ALONG A PREFRONTAL TROUGH. INSTABILITY
SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT THE SHEAR ACROSS
THE REGION WILL BE STRONG. STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS
WILL BE MOVING OVER THE FORECAST AREA...AND THIS WILL BE COUPLED
WITH AN EVEN STRONGER MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET. MUCH OF THE ENERGY
WILL BE PARALLEL TO THE MAIN UPPER FLOW...AND WHEN YOU ADD IN PW
VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES THIS EVENING...WE CAN EXPECT PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL. BULK OF THE ACTIVITY THIS EVENING WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH BETWEEN 00Z-05Z...THEN EXPECT LIGHTER SHOWERS AND STORMS
AS THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY MOVES EAST OF THE CWA. SHOWERS SHOULD
LINGER OVERNIGHT...BUT CHANCES FOR RAINFALL WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH
TOWARDS WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE MAIN FRONT MOVES INTO AND THROUGH
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES NOT EXPECTED TO FALL MUCH THROUGH THE
EVENING AND EVEN THROUGH MIDNIGHT. EXPECT BEST TEMPERATURE DROP TO
BE AFTER MIDNIGHT ONCE THE MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS PUSHING
THROUGH THE AREA.
FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN FRONT WILL BE PUSHING
EAST OF THE CWA EARLY IN THE DAY...ALONG WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE.
HOWEVER DUE TO THE MAIN UPPER LOW STILL WEST OF THE CWA...WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE UPSTATE AND
POSSIBLY EXTREME WESTERN CWA. EVEN SO...HAVE DRIED THE FORECAST
OUT ACROSS THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS DURING THE DAY
WILL BE COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH READINGS IN THE MIDDLE 70S.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL SEE A DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS ACROSS THE
REGION. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN UP OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S...WITH
ISOLATED SPOTS POSSIBLY REACHING THE UPPER 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONGER TERM MODELS STILL INDICATING A DRY FORECAST PATTERN THROUGH
THE MAJORITY OF THE LONGER TERM PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE IN THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WITH RIDGING ALONG THE GULF COAST SHOULD DIRECT A DRY
WESTERLY FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA EARLY. THE MODELS SHOW A WEAK
FRONT WILL LITTLE CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE SATURDAY WITH RIDGING
DOMINATING SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE GUIDANCE SUPPORTS NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY MID MORNING
INTO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE MORNING AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ALONG AND AHEAD OF
A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHING EAST. RESTRICTIONS LIKELY AS THE MAIN
BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS PUSHES THROUGH. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS
AND HEAVY RAINFALL. MODELS ARE ALSO INDICATING LLWS POSSIBLE ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PROMOTE
SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 TO 25
KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN THUNDERSTORMS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS EAST.
OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED WITH A
DRIER AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE AREA.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
615 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST WILL DIRECT A
MOIST ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT
MAY LINGER IN THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY BUT DEEPER MOISTURE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL SHIFT EASTWARD EARLY AND THE SHOWER CHANCE
WILL DIMINISH.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY THIS MORNING...DYNAMIC STORM SYSTEM TO THE WEST CONTINUES
TO PRODUCE STRONG STORMS AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS EASTERN
AL/TN/CENTRAL GA EARLY THIS MORNING. ACROSS THE CAROLINAS A
SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO
BRING MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE
MOVING ONSHORE ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL PORTIONS OF SC THIS
MORNING. WILL STILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH POPS INCREASING TOWARDS DAWN AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE
WEST MOVES IN AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES. CLOUD COVER AND
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET KEEPING THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED WILL RESULT
IN MILD MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.
TODAY...THE SHOWER CHANCE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE IN THE WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT THIS
MORNING. THE THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL INCREASE BY
MIDDAY AS A LINE OF CONVECTION RE-INTENSIFIES AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HAVE SPED UP POP TIMING BASED ON LATEST
RADAR TRENDS. HRRR AND RAP SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY HAVE BEEN A
COUPLE OF HOURS BEHIND WITH TIMING ON THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS.
TIMING IS DIURNALLY FAVORABLE WITH THE MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION
EXPECTED TO REACH THE CSRA WITHIN THE 18Z TO 20Z TIME FRAME.
CONVECTIVE ANALYSIS REVEALS MODERATE INSTABILITY BY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH CAPE AROUND 1000 TO 1500 J/KG. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW STRONG
UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILES WITH 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR AROUND 30 TO 35
KNOTS. THE MAIN THREAT WILL LIKELY BE STRONG WINDS. TORNADO THREAT
IN DISCRETE CELLS AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN
ADDITION TO SMALL HAIL. THE NAM AND GFS SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATER
INCREASING TO NEAR 2 INCHES TOWARD THE END OF THE DAY WHICH
INDICATES POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN PROMOTING SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS TODAY
WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 TO 25 KNOTS. EXPECT A GRADIENT IN TEMPERATURES
FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S WEST TO MIDDLE
80S EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE SLOW WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE CURRENT
ACTIVITY...BUT FOR THE MOST PART THE MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
THIS EVENING...PROBABLY ALONG A PREFRONTAL TROUGH. INSTABILITY
SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT THE SHEAR ACROSS
THE REGION WILL BE STRONG. STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS
WILL BE MOVING OVER THE FORECAST AREA...AND THIS WILL BE COUPLED
WITH AN EVEN STRONGER MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET. MUCH OF THE ENERGY
WILL BE PARALLEL TO THE MAIN UPPER FLOW...AND WHEN YOU ADD IN PW
VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES THIS EVENING...WE CAN EXPECT PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL. BULK OF THE ACTIVITY THIS EVENING WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH BETWEEN 00Z-05Z...THEN EXPECT LIGHTER SHOWERS AND STORMS
AS THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY MOVES EAST OF THE CWA. SHOWERS SHOULD
LINGER OVERNIGHT...BUT CHANCES FOR RAINFALL WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH
TOWARDS WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE MAIN FRONT MOVES INTO AND THROUGH
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES NOT EXPECTED TO FALL MUCH THROUGH THE
EVENING AND EVEN THROUGH MIDNIGHT. EXPECT BEST TEMPERATURE DROP TO
BE AFTER MIDNIGHT ONCE THE MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS PUSHING
THROUGH THE AREA.
FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN FRONT WILL BE PUSHING
EAST OF THE CWA EARLY IN THE DAY...ALONG WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE.
HOWEVER DUE TO THE MAIN UPPER LOW STILL WEST OF THE CWA...WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE UPSTATE AND
POSSIBLY EXTREME WESTERN CWA. EVEN SO...HAVE DRIED THE FORECAST
OUT ACROSS THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS DURING THE DAY
WILL BE COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH READINGS IN THE MIDDLE 70S.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL SEE A DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS ACROSS THE
REGION. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN UP OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S...WITH
ISOLATED SPOTS POSSIBLY REACHING THE UPPER 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONGER TERM MODELS STILL INDICATING A DRY FORECAST PATTERN THROUGH
THE MAJORITY OF THE LONGER TERM PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE IN THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WITH RIDGING ALONG THE GULF COAST SHOULD DIRECT A DRY
WESTERLY FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA EARLY. THE MODELS SHOW A WEAK
FRONT WILL LITTLE CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE SATURDAY WITH RIDGING
DOMINATING SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE GUIDANCE SUPPORTS NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT.
CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN FLUCTUATING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS
INITIAL STRATUS LAYER RETREATED. CEILINGS MAY ONCE AGAIN LOWER
TOWARD DAYBREAK AS SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW PULLS IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
DO NOT EXPECT ANY FOG AS SURFACE WINDS HAVE INCREASED THIS
MORNING. INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE MORNING AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ALONG AND AHEAD OF
A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHING EAST. RESTRICTIONS LIKELY AS THE MAIN
BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS PUSHES THROUGH. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS
AND HEAVY RAINFALL. MODELS ARE ALSO INDICATING LLWS POSSIBLE
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
PROMOTE SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 20
TO 25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN THUNDERSTORMS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS
EAST. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED WITH
A DRIER AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE AREA.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
231 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014
.EARLY MORNING UPDATE...
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LINE OF STORMS APPROACHING THE NW GA
STATE LINE IS WEAKENING DUE TO LACK OF INSTABILITY AND EXPECT THIS
TREND TO CONTINUE. THEREFORE... HAVE REMOVED HEARD... COWETA...
FAYETTE... CLAYTON... DEKALB AND COUNTIES NORTHWARD FROM THE TOR
WATCH AS THIS THREAT HAS GREATLY DIMINISHED. WILL HOLD ONTO THE TOR
WATCH FOR CHATTAHOOCHEE... HARRIS... MERIWETHER... MUSCOGEE...
STEWART AND TROUP FOR AWHILE LONGER AS THE GREATER INSTABILITIES ARE
STILL POOLED IN THIS AREA. ALTHOUGH THE WATCH HAS BEEN DROPPED
FOR NW GA... BE ADVISED... STRONG TO POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
ARE STILL POSSIBLE AS THIS LINE OF STORMS MOVE ACROSS NW GA THIS
MORNING. /39
.UPDATE...
/ISSUED AT 1024 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2014/
THE LATEST HRRR 3KM MODEL RUN CONTINUES TO SHOW THE FIRST ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND TSTMS MOVING INTO NORTH AND WEST GA AS EARLY AS 2 AM
EDT TUE. THE MAIN SQUALL LINE NOW IN CENTRAL AL SHOULD APPROACH
THE GA STATE LINE BY 6 AM EDT MOVING ACROSS GA THROUGH THE DAY.
EXPECTED WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITH ISOLATED SEVERE TSTMS
AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS UPWARD 5 TO 10 PERCENT
TO MATCH UP BETTER WITH EXPECTED QPF AMOUNTS.
&&
16
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 810 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2014/
..SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH STRONG DAMAGING WINDS...ISOLATED
TORNADOES...AND FLASH FLOODING AS MAIN THREATS WITH TWO ROUNDS OF
STORMS EARLY MORNING TUESDAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM CONTINUES TO BE ROBUST
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST TWO WAVES OF ACTIVITY WITH THE FIRST OF TWO SQUALL LINES
MOVING IN EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH A SECONDARY LINE PUSHING
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
FOR THE FIRST WAVE...MODEL CONSENSUS PUSHES THE LINE OF STORMS
ACROSS THE GA/AL LINE BETWEEN 4 AND 6 AM. A FEW MODELS SUGGEST SOME
ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THIS FIRST SQUALL LINE COULD BEGIN AS EARLY AS 2
AM. CONFIDENCE WITH THIS ACTIVITY IS MEDIUM GIVEN QUESTIONS THAT
STILL EXIST ON THE TIMING...AVAILABLE INGREDIENTS...AND OVERALL
INTENSITY. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT CONVECTION DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTH
WILL CUT OFF THE FLOW OF NECESSARY INGREDIENTS FARTHER NORTH.
REGARDLESS...GIVEN 950 MB WINDS...AMPLE SRH...AND EVEN MODEST
CAPE...EXPECT DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES TO BE THE MAIN
CONCERNS...PARTICULARLY IN BOWING PORTIONS OF THE LINE OR IN
DISCRETE STORMS DEVELOPING OUT AHEAD OF IT. AS OF NOW SPC DOES HAVE
THE ENTIRE ARE OUTLOOKED IN A SLIGHT RISK THROUGH THE DAY.
HAVE CONTINUED WITH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS BEGINNING IN THE
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE BY 06Z AND PROGRESSING EASTWARD
THROUGH THE MORNING.
THE SECOND SQUALL LINE LOOKS TO PUSH INTO WESTERN GEORGIA BY 16-17Z
/11-12PM/ AND MOVE INTO THE ATL METRO AREA BY 2-3PM. MODELS DIFFER
SOMEWHAT ON THE LEVEL OF CLEARING BETWEEN THE TWO LINES...WITH
SEVERAL MODELS ADVERTISING ENOUGH COULD COVER AND LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO SIGNIFICANTLY LIMIT THE INSTABILITY FOR THE SECOND
SQUALL LINE. HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT AS THIS LINE
PUSHES THROUGH THE CWA DURING PRIME HEATING TIME /MID-LATE
AFTERNOON/ THAT WITH A BETTER SUPPLY OF AVAILABLE INSTABILITIES AND
INGREDIENTS...WITH RISK OF SEVERE STORMS APPEARS GREATER.
SOUTHERLY FLOW ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE LINES OF ACTIVITY WILL KEEP
THE CONVECTION FROM PROGRESSING QUICKLY. EXPECT THAT IN SLOW MOVING
STORMS WILL DUMP HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE SAME AREA...RESULTING IN
POTENTIAL FLOODING. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FOR 2 AM TUESDAY TO 2 AM WEDNESDAY FOR PORTIONS OF NW AND NORTHERN
GEORGIA. SEE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.
WINDS OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION WILL STILL REMAIN HIGH...WITH SPEEDS OF
10-15 MPH AND GUSTS TO 25 MPH.
PLEASE KEEP IN MIND THE TIMING OF THESE STORMS...PARTICULARLY THAT
MODELS SHOW SOME OF THE HIGHEST RISK DURING MORNING AND AFTERNOON
RUSH HOUR.
31
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SOME SUBTLE DISCREPANCIES LATE IN THE PERIOD TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND
THOUGH NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO CHANGE FORECAST. MADE LITTLE CHANGE
TO THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
BAKER
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF SQUALL LINE THAT
IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE ATLANTA TAF SITES BETWEEN 09-12Z THIS
MORNING. HIRES MODELS SHOW A SECOND LINE OF STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG
THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT... AND THIS LINE MAY PUSH ACROSS THE ATLANTA
TAF SITES BETWEEN 16-19Z TODAY... BUT STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON THIS
SECOND LINE AT THIS TIME. EXPECT CIGS TO OCCASIONALLY LOWER TO IFR
LEVELS WITH THE STRONGER CONVECTION... BUT MVFR CIGS SHOULD PREVAIL
UNTIL IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED TO VFR AFTER THE COLD FRONT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT WRAP AROUND CLOUDS TO SPREAD MVFR CIGS BACK INTO
THE AREA LATER TONIGHT... MAYBE AROUND 07-10Z WED. OTHERWISE...
WINDS WILL BE SSE AROUND 10G20KTS THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING...
THEN VEER SSW BY EARLY AFTERNOON... THEN WESTERLY BY LATE AFTERNOON
OR EARLY EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.
39
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
/ISSUED AT 810 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2014/
EARLY TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY QPF IS ABOVE 2 INCHES ACROSS NORTH
AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WITH 1-1.5 FROM THE SE ATL METRO
AREA THROUGH MACON...AND BELOW 1 INCH FARTHER SE. DUE TO THE
RAINFALL NORTHERN GEORGIA HAS OBSERVED OVER THE LAST WEEK...THIS
AREA IS ALREADY PRIMED FOR POSSIBLE FLOODING ISSUES. FFG IS LOWER IN
THIS AREA...AND SO HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FOR NW GEORGIA COUNTIES. SITE SPECIFIC MODELS INDICATE THAT WITH THE
FORECAST AMOUNT OF PRECIP...SEVERAL RIVERS COULD SEE BANKFULL OR
MINOR FLOODING CONDITIONS...PARTICULARLY IN THE CONASAUGA RIVER AND
LOOKOUT CREEK BASINS.
31
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 67 73 56 70 / 70 100 90 20
ATLANTA 67 74 56 69 / 100 100 40 10
BLAIRSVILLE 62 70 51 65 / 100 100 70 30
CARTERSVILLE 68 74 53 68 / 100 100 40 20
COLUMBUS 71 77 56 75 / 90 100 30 10
GAINESVILLE 66 71 55 67 / 90 100 60 30
MACON 71 78 56 77 / 70 100 60 10
ROME 68 75 52 67 / 100 100 20 20
PEACHTREE CITY 69 75 52 69 / 100 100 40 10
VIDALIA 70 82 65 78 / 20 80 80 10
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
CHATTAHOOCHEE...HARRIS... MERIWETHER... MUSCOGEE... STEWART AND
TROUP.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
BARTOW...CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...CHEROKEE...DADE...FANNIN...DAWSON...
FLOYD... GILMER... GORDON... MURRAY... LUMPKIN... PICKENS... POLK...
TOWNS... UNION... WALKER... WHITE... WHITFIELD.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 AM EDT TUESDAY THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BARTOW...CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...
CHEROKEE...DADE...FANNIN...FLOYD...GILMER...GORDON...MURRAY...
PICKENS...TOWNS...UNION...WALKER...WHITFIELD.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...16/39
LONG TERM....SNELSON
AVIATION...39
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
103 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 237 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014
TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ARE GOING TO DOMINATE INDIANA WEATHER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE FIRST WAS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING. IT IS PREDICTED TO SHOW ALMOST NO
MOVEMENT UNTIL THURSDAY WHEN IT SHOULD DISSIPATE.
SHORTLY THEREAFTER...A SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS GOING TO
DEVELOP FROM WESTERN ONTARIO ACROSS INDIANA...TO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. NOT MUCH CHANGE WILL OCCUR UNTIL MONDAY...WHEN HIGH PRESSURE
OUGHT TO MOVE ACROSS THE HOOSIER STATE FROM THE WEST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 949 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014
FOR THE MORNING UPDATE...INCREASED POPS NORTHEAST AND DECREASED THEM
IN THE SOUTHEAST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO BETTER MATCH RADAR OBS.
FOR THE AFTERNOON HRRR AND RAP ARE BOTH DEPICTING LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF SHOWERS ONCE THIS INITIAL WAVE MOVES OUT. HOWEVER THERE IS
ANOTHER WEAKER WAVE THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER LOW THIS
AFTERNOON SO WENT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND RETAINED SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDER THROUGH 0Z WITH SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
AVAILABLE. DECREASED TEMPERATURES TO HIGHS IN THE MID 60S ACROSS
THE AREA WITH EXPECTED BROKEN TO OVERCAST CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE
DAY AND COLD ADVECTION AT 850 MB AND ALL LATEST OPERATIONAL MODELS
GOING COLDER THAN GOING FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 237 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014
POPS REMAIN THE MAIN ISSUE.
GUIDANCE POPS TONIGHT DECLINE FROM WEST TO EAST. THIS SUGGESTS THEY
EXPECT SOMETHING TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AND THEN GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE. THATS WHAT HAPPENED YESTERDAY INTO THIS MORNING.
THIS MAKES SENSE WITH ALL MODELS HAVING A FRONT TO OUR WEST BY
EVENING. BEYOND THAT PRESSURE ADVECTION ON THE 1.5 POTENTIAL
VORTICITY SURFACE SUGGESTS UPWARD FORCING WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
NORTHERN CWA PAST 00Z. GIVEN THAT LIKELY POPS LOOK GOOD IN THE
NORTHEAST AS WELL AS THE WEST. THE SOUTHEAST IS GOING TO BE FARTHER
AWAY FROM THE FORCING SO CHANCE POPS SHOULD SUFFICE THERE.
BY WEDNESDAY A FRONT IS LIKELY TO BE RIGHT OVER THE CWA. WHILE
DAYTIME HEATING IS APT TO BE MEAGER...IT WILL BE COMBINED WITH
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT. THE HIGHS POPS FROM BOTH FORMS OF
GUIDANCE LOOK GOOD.
THERE IS DECENT MODEL CONSENSUS AN UPPER LOW OVER OUR AREA WILL MOVE
OFF TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...REDUCING THE CHANCE
OF RAIN. HOWEVER THERE IS ALSO MODEL CONSENSUS CYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW
WILL PERSIST. THIS OPENS POSSIBILITY OF EMBEDDED TROUGHS CAUSING
CONVERGENCE. A SLIGHT CHANCE SHOULD BE RETAINED FOR BOTH PERIODS.
WITH THE ALREADY MENTIONED FRONT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE OVER THE CWA
LATE NIGHT...TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN
TODAY. THE GUIDANCE IS CLOSE AND WELL SUPPORTED BY THE DETERMINISTIC
TEMPERATURE FIELDS. THERE IS NO REASON TO CHANGE THE MOS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014
THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSITION INTO SOME WEAK TROUGHING AT
THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. HOWEVER...GFS AND EURO ARE IN
AGREEMENT IN REGARD TO SYSTEM STAYING TOO FAR NORTH FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. AS A RESULT...WILL KEEP THE
DRY FORECAST FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON THAT LATEST
INITIALIZATION PRODUCED.
FURTHER OUT...MODELS BECOME INCONSISTENT...AND REGIONAL
INITIALIZATION IS STRUGGLING WITH LOCATION OF PRECIP CHANCES FROM
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. OVERALL...THE INITIALIZATION
SEEMS TO BE TRENDING TOWARD THE EURO AND A WEAK UPPER TROUGH
BRINGING LIGHT PRECIP TO PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
MEANWHILE...THE GFS IS SHOWING NO INDICATIONS OF AN UPPER TROUGH
DURING THAT TIME PERIOD AND FAVORS SUBSIDENCE OVER CENTRAL INDIANA.
WILL NOT MAKE CHANGES TO INITIALIZATION AT THIS TIME UNTIL MODELS
SHOW BETTER AGREEMENT.
TEMPS WILL START OUT ABOVE NORMAL WITH WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON
FRIDAY. THIS WILL PUT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S.
HOWEVER...TEMPS WILL FALL CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD AS SURFACE WINDS TAKE ON MORE OF A NORTHWESTERLY
COMPONENT. THIS MEANS HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S AND LOWS IN
THE 40S.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 141800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1256 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014
CEILINGS WILL LIKELY BOUNCE BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON SO WILL GO WITH PREVAILING HIGH END MVFR. POP UP SHOWERS
ARE PROBABLE BUT WITH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING PLACEMENT AND BRIEF
NATURE WILL JUST INCLUDE VCSH FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TONIGHT DOWN TO IFR/LIFR WITH
BOTH CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES DROPPING WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND THE UPPER LOW DRAWING CLOSER. THERE COULD BE A FEW
SHOWERS AROUND TONIGHT BUT NOT HIGH ENOUGH PROBABILITY TO INCLUDE.
SHOWERS BECOME MORE LIKELY WEDNESDAY BY LATE MORNING WITH THE
UPPER LOW OVERHEAD AND SOME DAYTIME HEATING SO INCLUDED VCSH
DURING THAT TIME. WIND GUSTS SHOULD LAST THROUGH AROUND 0-3Z
BEFORE DROPPING OFF TONIGHT AND DO NOT EXPECT GUSTS WEDNESDAY.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...CP
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1031 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014
.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 237 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014
TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ARE GOING TO DOMINATE INDIANA WEATHER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE FIRST WAS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING. IT IS PREDICTED TO SHOW ALMOST NO
MOVEMENT UNTIL THURSDAY WHEN IT SHOULD DISSIPATE.
SHORTLY THEREAFTER...A SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS GOING TO
DEVELOP FROM WESTERN ONTARIO ACROSS INDIANA...TO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. NOT MUCH CHANGE WILL OCCUR UNTIL MONDAY...WHEN HIGH PRESSURE
OUGHT TO MOVE ACROSS THE HOOSIER STATE FROM THE WEST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 949 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014
FOR THE MORNING UPDATE...INCREASED POPS NORTHEAST AND DECREASED THEM
IN THE SOUTHEAST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO BETTER MATCH RADAR OBS.
FOR THE AFTERNOON HRRR AND RAP ARE BOTH DEPICTING LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF SHOWERS ONCE THIS INITIAL WAVE MOVES OUT. HOWEVER THERE IS
ANOTHER WEAKER WAVE THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER LOW THIS
AFTERNOON SO WENT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND RETAINED SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDER THROUGH 0Z WITH SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
AVAILABLE. DECREASED TEMPERATURES TO HIGHS IN THE MID 60S ACROSS
THE AREA WITH EXPECTED BROKEN TO OVERCAST CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE
DAY AND COLD ADVECTION AT 850 MB AND ALL LATEST OPERATIONAL MODELS
GOING COLDER THAN GOING FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 237 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014
POPS REMAIN THE MAIN ISSUE.
GUIDANCE POPS TONIGHT DECLINE FROM WEST TO EAST. THIS SUGGESTS THEY
EXPECT SOMETHING TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AND THEN GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE. THATS WHAT HAPPENED YESTERDAY INTO THIS MORNING.
THIS MAKES SENSE WITH ALL MODELS HAVING A FRONT TO OUR WEST BY
EVENING. BEYOND THAT PRESSURE ADVECTION ON THE 1.5 POTENTIAL
VORTICITY SURFACE SUGGESTS UPWARD FORCING WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
NORTHERN CWA PAST 00Z. GIVEN THAT LIKELY POPS LOOK GOOD IN THE
NORTHEAST AS WELL AS THE WEST. THE SOUTHEAST IS GOING TO BE FARTHER
AWAY FROM THE FORCING SO CHANCE POPS SHOULD SUFFICE THERE.
BY WEDNESDAY A FRONT IS LIKELY TO BE RIGHT OVER THE CWA. WHILE
DAYTIME HEATING IS APT TO BE MEAGER...IT WILL BE COMBINED WITH
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT. THE HIGHS POPS FROM BOTH FORMS OF
GUIDANCE LOOK GOOD.
THERE IS DECENT MODEL CONSENSUS AN UPPER LOW OVER OUR AREA WILL MOVE
OFF TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...REDUCING THE CHANCE
OF RAIN. HOWEVER THERE IS ALSO MODEL CONSENSUS CYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW
WILL PERSIST. THIS OPENS POSSIBILITY OF EMBEDDED TROUGHS CAUSING
CONVERGENCE. A SLIGHT CHANCE SHOULD BE RETAINED FOR BOTH PERIODS.
WITH THE ALREADY MENTIONED FRONT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE OVER THE CWA
LATE NIGHT...TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN
TODAY. THE GUIDANCE IS CLOSE AND WELL SUPPORTED BY THE DETERMINISTIC
TEMPERATURE FIELDS. THERE IS NO REASON TO CHANGE THE MOS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014
THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSITION INTO SOME WEAK TROUGHING AT
THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. HOWEVER...GFS AND EURO ARE IN
AGREEMENT IN REGARD TO SYSTEM STAYING TOO FAR NORTH FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. AS A RESULT...WILL KEEP THE
DRY FORECAST FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON THAT LATEST
INITIALIZATION PRODUCED.
FURTHER OUT...MODELS BECOME INCONSISTENT...AND REGIONAL
INITIALIZATION IS STRUGGLING WITH LOCATION OF PRECIP CHANCES FROM
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. OVERALL...THE INITIALIZATION
SEEMS TO BE TRENDING TOWARD THE EURO AND A WEAK UPPER TROUGH
BRINGING LIGHT PRECIP TO PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
MEANWHILE...THE GFS IS SHOWING NO INDICATIONS OF AN UPPER TROUGH
DURING THAT TIME PERIOD AND FAVORS SUBSIDENCE OVER CENTRAL INDIANA.
WILL NOT MAKE CHANGES TO INITIALIZATION AT THIS TIME UNTIL MODELS
SHOW BETTER AGREEMENT.
TEMPS WILL START OUT ABOVE NORMAL WITH WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON
FRIDAY. THIS WILL PUT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S.
HOWEVER...TEMPS WILL FALL CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD AS SURFACE WINDS TAKE ON MORE OF A NORTHWESTERLY
COMPONENT. THIS MEANS HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S AND LOWS IN
THE 40S.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 14/15Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1031 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014
PREVIOUSLY ADDED SOME EXPLICIT SHOWER MENTIONS BUT THOSE SHOULD BE
MOVING OUT OF THE SITES OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO IF THEY HAVEN/T
ALREADY. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY VCSH AS SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. COULD SEE LOW MVFR LIFT TO
HIGHER END MVFR OR EVEN VFR FOR A BRIEF PERIOD LATE THIS
MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SO RAISED TO HIGHER MVFR WHERE LOWER
END WAS GOING. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH OF ANY PROLONGED STRETCH OF VFR
THOUGH SO LEFT THAT OUT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL IMPACT ALL TAF SITES TODAY AS UPPER LOW
APPROACHES CENTRAL INDIANA. ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...BUT CHANCES ARE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE MENTION IN
TAFS AT THIS TIME. MVFR WILL BE THE PREVAILING FLIGHT CATEGORY
THROUGH THE DAY AND EVENING HOURS...BUT CONDITIONS WILL
DETERIORATE FURTHER TONIGHT AS CORE OF UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS FROM WED 06Z THROUGH
END OF TAF PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BE STRONG OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 12
TO 14 KTS...GUSTING TO 24 KTS THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...THEN
TAPERING OFF AND BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY AROUND WED 00Z.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD/CP
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
956 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014
.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 237 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014
TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ARE GOING TO DOMINATE INDIANA WEATHER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE FIRST WAS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING. IT IS PREDICTED TO SHOW ALMOST NO
MOVEMENT UNTIL THURSDAY WHEN IT SHOULD DISSIPATE.
SHORTLY THEREAFTER...A SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS GOING TO
DEVELOP FROM WESTERN ONTARIO ACROSS INDIANA...TO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. NOT MUCH CHANGE WILL OCCUR UNTIL MONDAY...WHEN HIGH PRESSURE
OUGHT TO MOVE ACROSS THE HOOSIER STATE FROM THE WEST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 949 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014
FOR THE MORNING UPDATE...INCREASED POPS NORTHEAST AND DECREASED THEM
IN THE SOUTHEAST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO BETTER MATCH RADAR OBS.
FOR THE AFTERNOON HRRR AND RAP ARE BOTH DEPICTING LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF SHOWERS ONCE THIS INITIAL WAVE MOVES OUT. HOWEVER THERE IS
ANOTHER WEAKER WAVE THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER LOW THIS
AFTERNOON SO WENT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND RETAINED SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDER THROUGH 0Z WITH SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
AVAILABLE. DECREASED TEMPERATURES TO HIGHS IN THE MID 60S ACROSS
THE AREA WITH EXPECTED BROKEN TO OVERCAST CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE
DAY AND COLD ADVECTION AT 850 MB AND ALL LATEST OPERATIONAL MODELS
GOING COLDER THAN GOING FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 237 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014
POPS REMAIN THE MAIN ISSUE.
GUIDANCE POPS TONIGHT DECLINE FROM WEST TO EAST. THIS SUGGESTS THEY
EXPECT SOMETHING TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AND THEN GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE. THATS WHAT HAPPENED YESTERDAY INTO THIS MORNING.
THIS MAKES SENSE WITH ALL MODELS HAVING A FRONT TO OUR WEST BY
EVENING. BEYOND THAT PRESSURE ADVECTION ON THE 1.5 POTENTIAL
VORTICITY SURFACE SUGGESTS UPWARD FORCING WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
NORTHERN CWA PAST 00Z. GIVEN THAT LIKELY POPS LOOK GOOD IN THE
NORTHEAST AS WELL AS THE WEST. THE SOUTHEAST IS GOING TO BE FARTHER
AWAY FROM THE FORCING SO CHANCE POPS SHOULD SUFFICE THERE.
BY WEDNESDAY A FRONT IS LIKELY TO BE RIGHT OVER THE CWA. WHILE
DAYTIME HEATING IS APT TO BE MEAGER...IT WILL BE COMBINED WITH
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT. THE HIGHS POPS FROM BOTH FORMS OF
GUIDANCE LOOK GOOD.
THERE IS DECENT MODEL CONSENSUS AN UPPER LOW OVER OUR AREA WILL MOVE
OFF TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...REDUCING THE CHANCE
OF RAIN. HOWEVER THERE IS ALSO MODEL CONSENSUS CYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW
WILL PERSIST. THIS OPENS POSSIBILITY OF EMBEDDED TROUGHS CAUSING
CONVERGENCE. A SLIGHT CHANCE SHOULD BE RETAINED FOR BOTH PERIODS.
WITH THE ALREADY MENTIONED FRONT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE OVER THE CWA
LATE NIGHT...TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN
TODAY. THE GUIDANCE IS CLOSE AND WELL SUPPORTED BY THE DETERMINISTIC
TEMPERATURE FIELDS. THERE IS NO REASON TO CHANGE THE MOS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014
THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSITION INTO SOME WEAK TROUGHING AT
THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. HOWEVER...GFS AND EURO ARE IN
AGREEMENT IN REGARD TO SYSTEM STAYING TOO FAR NORTH FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. AS A RESULT...WILL KEEP THE
DRY FORECAST FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON THAT LATEST
INITIALIZATION PRODUCED.
FURTHER OUT...MODELS BECOME INCONSISTENT...AND REGIONAL
INITIALIZATION IS STRUGGLING WITH LOCATION OF PRECIP CHANCES FROM
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. OVERALL...THE INITIALIZATION
SEEMS TO BE TRENDING TOWARD THE EURO AND A WEAK UPPER TROUGH
BRINGING LIGHT PRECIP TO PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
MEANWHILE...THE GFS IS SHOWING NO INDICATIONS OF AN UPPER TROUGH
DURING THAT TIME PERIOD AND FAVORS SUBSIDENCE OVER CENTRAL INDIANA.
WILL NOT MAKE CHANGES TO INITIALIZATION AT THIS TIME UNTIL MODELS
SHOW BETTER AGREEMENT.
TEMPS WILL START OUT ABOVE NORMAL WITH WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON
FRIDAY. THIS WILL PUT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S.
HOWEVER...TEMPS WILL FALL CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD AS SURFACE WINDS TAKE ON MORE OF A NORTHWESTERLY
COMPONENT. THIS MEANS HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S AND LOWS IN
THE 40S.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 14/12Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 721 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL IMPACT ALL TAF SITES TODAY AS UPPER LOW
APPROACHES CENTRAL INDIANA. ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...BUT CHANCES ARE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE MENTION IN
TAFS AT THIS TIME. MVFR WILL BE THE PREVAILING FLIGHT CATEGORY
THROUGH THE DAY AND EVENING HOURS...BUT CONDITIONS WILL
DETERIORATE FURTHER TONIGHT AS CORE OF UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS FROM WED 06Z THROUGH
END OF TAF PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BE STRONG OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 12
TO 14 KTS...GUSTING TO 24 KTS THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...THEN
TAPERING OFF AND BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY AROUND WED 00Z.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
204 PM MDT TUE OCT 14 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 111 PM MDT TUE OCT 14 2014
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW BLOCKY
RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN ACROSS THE US...WITH AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER
THE WESTER US THE DOMINATE FEATURE FOR OUR CWA. AT THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IS IN PLACE OVER OUR CWA WITH A WEAK LEE TROUGH BEGINNING
TO DEVELOP OVER COLORADO.
DUE TO THE STRONG RIDGE KEEPING CONDITIONS CLEAR AND DRY ACROSS OUR
CWA...PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS ON MODERATING TEMPS AND
POTENTIAL FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY.
SOUTHERLY GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO TIGHTEN AS LEE TROUGH CONTINUES TO
DEEPEN WEDNESDAY...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING AROUND 25 MPH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPS SHOULD WARM TO THE UPPER
70S...POSSIBLY THE LOWER 80S. MODELS ARE TENDING TO ADVECT HIGHER
TD VALUES NORTH WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW...HOWEVER IT APPEARS THE
BETTER MOISTURE SHOULD BE CUT OFF TO THE SOUTH AT LEAST THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE AFTERNOON. MIXING HEIGHTS ARE SOMEWHAT LIMITED
BY ELEVATED INVERSION...HOWEVER WE SHOULD STILL SEE TD VALUES MIX
TO THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S IN THE WEST. RESULT WOULD BE RH VALUES
RIGHT ABOVE 15 PERCENT. AFTER COORDINATION WITH PARTNERS CURRENT
FUELS SHOULD SUPPORT EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH FOR ALL OF OUR CWA
EXCEPT FOR GREELEY AND WICHITA COUNTIES. CONDITIONS WILL BE
CLOSE TO CRITERIA...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN A 3HR CROSSOVER OF
WIND/RH IS LOW SO A RED FLAG WARNING IS PLANNED DURING THIS UPDATE
WEDNESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 PM MDT TUE OCT 14 2014
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD IS NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY. A BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN FOR
THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD SHALL LEAD TO LITTLE TO NO HAZARDOUS
WEATHER THROUGHOUT.
BEGINNING WITH THURSDAY...A STRONG...FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PASSES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS TROUGH ALSO FORCES A WEAK COLD
FRONT THROUGH. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS TROUGH SHALL BE A SLIGHT
COOLING OF TEMPERATURES...ALBEIT REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL...DRIER AIR
AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS. FIRE WEATHER MAY BECOME A CONCERN FOR
THURSDAY IF TEMPERATURES ARE WARMER AND DEWPOINTS LOWER THAN
CURRENTLY ADVERTISED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO BRING SOME CONCERN THAT
DRIER AIR ALOFT COULD MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE AND BRING MUCH LOWER
HUMIDITIES. CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
NEAR 20 PERCENT AND WIND GUSTS 30-35 MPH. MADE SOME CALLS TO LOCAL
FIRE WEATHER PARTNERS AND CONSENSUS SEEMS TO BE FUELS ARE CURED
ENOUGH TO CARRY A FIRE THREAT. FOR NOW...WILL MENTION CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE HWO BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING
A WATCH.
FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...EXPECTING QUIET WEATHER FOR THE MOST
PART. FORECAST GUIDANCE IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A SYSTEM MOVING
IN SUNDAY. THE SYSTEM IS FAIRLY WEAK AND MOST GUIDANCE ANTICIPATES A
FURTHER SOUTH TRACK AND SLOWER PACE COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. WHILE A
SHOWER OR TWO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT COMPLETELY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...DID NOT THINK THAT A PRECIP MENTION WAS REQUIRED.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES LOOKS TO BREAK
DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THIS HAPPENS...A TROUGH REPLACES THE RIDGE
AND BRINGS SOUTH WINDS AND HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT...PRIMING THE
AREA FOR POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION BY MID-WEEK. THIS SYSTEM REPRESENTS
THE NEXT BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AND POTENTIALLY A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS IF TEMPERATURES/INSTABILITY ARE HIGH ENOUGH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1110 AM MDT TUE OCT 14 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK WITH CLEAR
SKIES PREVAILING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER BOTH
TERMINALS TODAY WILL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS AROUND 5KT BECOMING
VARIABLE EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD AND CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.
SURFACE TROUGH BUILDING WEDNESDAY WILL RESULT IN WINDS SHIFTING TO
THE SOUTH AND INCREASING TO AROUND 12KT AT BOTH TERMINALS BY LATE
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
111 PM MDT TUE OCT 14 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 111 PM MDT TUE OCT 14 2014
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW BLOCKY
RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN ACROSS THE US...WITH AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER
THE WESTER US THE DOMINATE FEATURE FOR OUR CWA. AT THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IS IN PLACE OVER OUR CWA WITH A WEAK LEE TROUGH BEGINNING
TO DEVELOP OVER COLORADO.
DUE TO THE STRONG RIDGE KEEPING CONDITIONS CLEAR AND DRY ACROSS OUR
CWA...PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS ON MODERATING TEMPS AND
POTENTIAL FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY.
SOUTHERLY GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO TIGHTEN AS LEE TROUGH CONTINUES TO
DEEPEN WEDNESDAY...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING AROUND 25 MPH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPS SHOULD WARM TO THE UPPER
70S...POSSIBLY THE LOWER 80S. MODELS ARE TENDING TO ADVECT HIGHER
TD VALUES NORTH WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW...HOWEVER IT APPEARS THE
BETTER MOISTURE SHOULD BE CUT OFF TO THE SOUTH AT LEAST THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE AFTERNOON. MIXING HEIGHTS ARE SOMEWHAT LIMITED
BY ELEVATED INVERSION...HOWEVER WE SHOULD STILL SEE TD VALUES MIX
TO THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S IN THE WEST. RESULT WOULD BE RH VALUES
RIGHT ABOVE 15 PERCENT. AFTER COORDINATION WITH PARTNERS CURRENT
FUELS SHOULD SUPPORT EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH FOR ALL OF OUR CWA
EXCEPT FOR GREELEY AND WICHITA COUNTIES. CONDITIONS WILL BE
CLOSE TO CRITERIA...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN A 3HR CROSSOVER OF
WIND/RH IS LOW SO A RED FLAG WARNING IS PLANNED DURING THIS UPDATE
WEDNESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 AM MDT TUE OCT 14 2014
THE NEXT MENTIONABLE WEATHER WILL BE WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH
DEVELOPS IN EASTERN COLORADO WITH A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT OF
ABOUT 6 MB ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA...WHICH WILL LEAD TO GUSTY
WINDS FOR MANY LOCATIONS. BECAUSE OF SURFACE GRADIENT SIGNATURE
AND SOME HINT FROM GUIDANCE THAT THERE WOULD BE SOME AVAILABILITY
OF WINDS ALOFT TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE...DECIDED TO UP WINDS A
BIT COMPARED TO AVAILABLE GUIDANCE. HIGHER GUSTS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THAN
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR DUE TO THE STRONGER WARM AIR
ADVECTION AT THE SURFACE...WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID 70S TO
AROUND 80.
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS SOMETIME DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY...BRINGING SOME GUSTY WINDS UP
TO 30 MPH ACROSS THE AREA. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE PLENTY OF DRY
AIR ALOFT...SO LOWERED THE DEW POINTS SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
POTENTIAL MIXING DOWN OF DRY AIR. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL NOT
QUITE MEET CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS...SO NOT EXPECTING
FIRE WEATHER PROBLEMS THURSDAY AT THIS TIME. COOLER AIR WILL FILL
IN BEHIND THE FRONT...HOWEVER HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL IN THE MID 70S FOR THURSDAY.
DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR FRIDAY ON INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT AS REGION REMAINS UNDER BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. GOING
INTO SUNDAY HOWEVER...MODELS(GFS/ECMWF) BRING WEAK SHORTWAVE ONSHORE
FROM THE PACIFIC TRAVELING EAST OVER THE ROCKIES...EXITING INTO THE
PLAINS REGION LATE SUNDAY RIGHT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO
MONDAY MORNING. TIMING OF THIS SHORTWAVE INTO THE PLAINS REGION JUST
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA PUTS BEST CHANCES FOR ANY -RW...OVER
SOUTHERN ZONES. DAYTIMES HEATING COMBINED WITH SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER
AREA WITH HIGHER DEWPTS(AFTERNOON HRS)...PUTS THE AFOREMENTIONED
AREA IN POSITION TO SEE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION. DRY WEATHER/SFC
RIDGE THEN RETURNS FOR REST OF NEXT MONDAY/TUESDAY. FOR DAYTIME
HIGHS/OVERNIGHT LOWS...OVERALL SUNNY/MSUNNY SKIES THRU FORECAST
PERIOD WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY A FEW
DEGREES. WILL GO WITH 60S FOR HIGHS AND LOW/MID 40S FOR LOWS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1110 AM MDT TUE OCT 14 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK WITH CLEAR
SKIES PREVAILING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER BOTH
TERMINALS TODAY WILL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS AROUND 5KT BECOMING
VARIABLE EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD AND CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.
SURFACE TROUGH BUILDING WEDNESDAY WILL RESULT IN WINDS SHIFTING TO
THE SOUTH AND INCREASING TO AROUND 12KT AT BOTH TERMINALS BY LATE
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...MK/JN
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1116 PM MDT MON OCT 13 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 127 PM MDT MON OCT 13 2014
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOWS LARGE CALE
RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE WESTERN US INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH
CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN KS. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS
BEGINNING TO BUILD INTO NORTHERN AND EASTERN COLORADO WITH A
NORTH-SOUTH PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE OVER WESTERN KS.
WINDS ALOFT ARE ALREADY SHOWING A DOWNWARD TREND...AND AS THE
SURFACE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN WINDS WILL FOLLOW SUIT. WIND
ADVISORY IS MARGINAL...HOWEVER I COULD SEE ANOTHER FEW HOURS WHERE
GUSTS WILL BE AROUND 45 MPH. IT IS CLOSE ENOUGH THAT I DIDNT WANT
TO EXPIRE THE ADVISORY EARLY...SO WILL ALLOW THE ADVISORY TO
CONTINUE UNTIL WE SEE A MUCH MORE DEFINITE DOWNWARD TREND IN WIND
SPEEDS.
WITH CLEAR SKIES...DECREASING WINDS...AND LOW TD VALUES IN THE MID
20S TO LOW 30S WE WILL SEE VERY GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT. AIR MARI MASS MAY BEGIN TO MODERATE SOME
ALOFT...HOWEVER WE WILL STILL SEE OVERNIGHT LOWS AT LEAST IN THE
MIDDLE 30S. RIVER VALLEYS AND OTHER LOW LYING/SHELTERED LOCATIONS
WILL LIKELY SEE FROST...AND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR TEMPS TO BE
EVEN COOLER THAN EXPECTED I DECIDED TO ISSUE FROST ADVISORY 06Z-
15Z TUE.
TUESDAY...WITH STRONG RIDGING ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY...AND AIR
MASS WILL SLOWLY MODERATE. HIGHS SHOULD BE SEASONAL WITH VALUES IN
THE UPPER 60S (POSSIBLY LOWER 70S).
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 157 PM MDT MON OCT 13 2014
FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST...A RATHER BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN SETS UP
IN THE FORM OF A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES. TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO BE
ABOVE NORMAL. A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY...LEAVING SLIGHTLY COOLER YET MARGINALLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN ITS WAKE. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED.
AS FOR PRECIPITATION...A DRY FORECAST HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA. THE CURRENT GFS RUN AND THE PREVIOUS EUROPEAN MODEL
INDICATED A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH ON SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM
WAS PROJECTED TO BRING SOME SHOWERS...POSSIBLY A STORM OR TWO...TO
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70. THE CURRENT EUROPEAN MODEL RUN HAS
BACKED OFF THAT SOLUTION AND...IN AGREEMENT WITH THE CANADIAN
MODEL...HOLDS THE DISTURBANCE UP IN THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.
IN COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES...DECIDED TO PULL
INITIALIZED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1113 PM MDT MON OCT 13 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KGLD AND KMCK FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IN RESPONSE TO HIGH PRESSURE AND SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION. LIGHT
NORTHWEST WIND WILL BECOME VARIABLE IN DIRECTION TUESDAY EVENING.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MDT /10 AM CDT/ TUESDAY FOR KSZ001>003-
013-014-027-028-041-042.
CO...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MDT TUESDAY FOR COZ090>092.
NE...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MDT /10 AM CDT/ TUESDAY FOR NEZ079>081.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...FS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
208 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 201 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014
SECOND LINE OF RAIN SHOWERS IS CURRENTLY SLOWLY TREKKING ACROSS THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WHILE
SOME OF THESE SHOWERS ARE SHOWING UP MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES ON
THE RADAR...THE RATES AND TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE STILL QUITE LOW
COMPARED TO WHAT WAS ORIGINALLY THOUGHT. LONDON ASOS JUST REPORTED
HALF AN INCH OF RAIN IN THE LAST HOUR...WHICH IS PRETTY GOOD...BUT NO
WHERE NEAR THE HIGHER AMOUNTS THAT WERE ORIGINALLY EXPECTED. AS
SUCH...THE THREAT OF THERE BEING ANY FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE CWA IS
ACTUALLY QUITE LOW. MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THE
AMOUNT OF RAIN THAT IS FALLING...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS WHICH WE MAY NEED TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR AS
WARRANTED. AFTER COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...DECIDED TO
GO AHEAD AND DROP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH ACROSS THE CWA FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1018 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014
UPDATED THE FORECAST...MAINLY THE POPS...TO MAKE SURE THAT ONGOING
TRENDS WERE BETTER REFLECTED. CURRENTLY...AN AREA OF WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS IS SLOWLY MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
CWA. THERE IS A BREAK IN THE ACTION ALONG THE WESTERN CWA
BORDER...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ACTUAL
FRONT CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL KY. THIS ONGOING SCENARIO IS ILL DEFINED
IN ANY OF THE SHORT TERM MODELS...EXCEPT MAYBE THE HRRR WHICH IS
STILL SEVERAL HOURS TOO SLOW. AS SUCH...WENT THROUGH THE POP GRIDS
AND MANUALLY TWEAKED THEM HOUR BY HOUR TO BETTER SHOW THE TRENDS OF
THE TWO LINES AND BREAK IN BETWEEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR IN CASE FURTHER UPDATES NEED TO BE MADE.
ALSO...GIVEN THE LACK OF THUNDER FOR THIS EVENT ACROSS THE
REGION...REDUCED THUNDER MENTION TO ONLY ISOLATED IN THE MOST
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS. EVEN THEN...DON/T KNOW IF WE WILL SEE MUCH
IN THE WAY OF THUNDER WITH THIS EVENT. ALSO LOADED IN THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONAL DATA FOR TEMPS...DEW POINTS...AND WINDS...TO MAKE SURE
THE NEAR TERM FORECAST WAS WELL ON TRACK WITH ONGOING CONDITIONS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 715 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014
FOR THE MOST PART...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. HOWEVER...HAVE FINE
TUNED THE POPS FOR THE LINE OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. A
SLIGHTLY QUICKER MOVEMENT OF THE LINE SEEMS TO BE THE CASE AND HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS FOR THIS. THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE IN WESTERN
KENTUCKY ALONG I-65 THIS HOUR AND LOOKS TO BE ARRIVING IN EASTERN
KENTUCKY BY 18Z. FOR NOW...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AND THE HIGHER WIND
GUSTS THREAT STILL LOOKS TO BE VALID. HAVE SENT OUT A NEW ZFP FOR THE
POPS BEING ADJUSTED AND INPUT THE LATEST OBS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE A LINE OF SHOWERS JUST
ENTERING THE I-75 CORRIDOR AS HEAVY SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE NORTH OUT OF TN INTO KY. THE GENERAL PROGRESSION
OF THE LINE IS EASTWARD...THOUGH VERY SLOWLY. SOUTHEAST WINDS
PERPENDICULAR ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS SEEMS TO BE CREATING A DOWN SLOPE
EFFECT ON THE INCOMING RAINFALL AS IT CREEPS EAST. THIS IS EXPECTED
TO BE OVERCOME HEADING INTO THE MORNING HOURS. EVEN SO ADJUSTED THE
POPS FOR A QUICKER EXIT TONIGHT AS THE DURATION APPEARS TO BE
SHORTER. OBSERVATIONS SO FAR HAVE SHOWN WIND GUSTS GETTING INTO THE
30 TO 40 RANGE IN SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN. BECAUSE
OF THIS...DECIDED TO CONTINUE WITH THE SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THE CONTINUED
WIND THREAT. WHILE A FEW MORE BROKEN LINES OF STRONGER SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THE MORNING HOURS...THE MAIN SEVERE
THREAT IS MARGINAL FOR NOW. THIS MAY CHANGE HEADING INTO THE DAY WITH
SOME HEATING AFTER DAYBREAK...PERHAPS ENOUGH FOR SOME INCREASED
INSTABILITY BUT THE MAIN LINE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY ALREADY BE OVER
MUCH OF EASTERN KENTUCKY BY THEN. THIS WILL NEED MONITORED HEADING
INTO THE HOURS AFTER DAYBREAK TODAY...ESPECIALLY WITH THE LOW LEVEL
JET OF 50 TO 60 KNOTS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ANY
INCREASE IN INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH FOR THE LINE TO REORGANIZE.
DESPITE THE LACK OF INSTABILITY...THE STRONG WIND THREAT WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF A PREFRONTAL
TROUGH AND THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT THIS EVENING. THE ACTUAL FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WILL PROVIDE A SECONDARY CONCERN FOR
WINDS BUT ALSO FOR MORE HEAVY RAINFALL. WITH THIS...WILL KEEP THE
MENTION OF STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS TODAY...HEAVY RAINFALL
WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING...AND THE STRONG
WIND THREAT.
THROUGH THIS EVENING THE NAM AND GFS ARE SUGGESTING AN EARLIER EXIT
WHICH MAY RESULT IN A NEED TO EXPIRE PRODUCTS A BIT EARLIER BUT
ASSESS THIS LATER IN THE DAY. THIS APPEARS TO BE THE FORECAST
CHALLENGE AS WHEN THIS FRONT EXITS. MODELS STILL AGREE WITH THE
SCENARIO OF THE LINGERING UPPER LOW AND WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER OVER
THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT AND ALSO FOR WEDNESDAY DUE TO THIS. TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL FEATURE A BREAK IN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AS THE DRY SLOT WILL BE OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY BEFORE A SECONDARY
TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AND
WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS. FOR NOW...SOME INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT
IN THE AFTERNOON BUT WITH 200 J/KG...EXPECTING SHOWERS TO BE THE
CASE.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014
THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM MEXICO
NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO UPPER MS VALLEY REGION AND A
CLOSED LOW OVER THE OH VALLEY REGION TO ITS EAST. THE AXIS OF THIS
CLOSED LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS EAST KY ON WED
NIGHT...WITH THE CLOSED LOW EXPECTED TO DEPART TO THE NORTHEAST
GRADUALLY ON THU. THE RIDGE INITIALLY IN PLACE OVER THE PLAINS SHOULD
WORK EAST AND WEAKEN/FLATTEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. THE
PATTERN SHOULD GRADUALLY EVOLVE TO PATTERN WITH GENERALLY A RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NORTH INTO THE ROCKIES
AND A TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA SOUTH INTO THE EASTERN CONUS FROM
THE WEEKEND THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. A FEW SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE
THROUGH THIS TROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK. THE
FIRST SHORTWAVE SHOULD WORK ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND TN VALLEY REGIONS
ON FRI NIGHT. THE 0Z ECMWF AND 0Z GFS THEN DIFFER WITH HEIGHTS OVER
THE GREAT LAKES WITH THE GFS MORE CLOSED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND
CONSOLIDATED...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE AND BRINGS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE INTO THE OH VALLEY FROM SAT INTO SAT EVENING. MODELS GENERALLY
HAVE HEIGHT RISES AND WEAK RIDGING FOR SUNDAY...WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
MOVING INTO THE OH VALLEY LATE IN THE PERIOD.
THE PERIOD SHOULD BEGIN RATHER UNSETTLED WITH SHOWERS ANTICIPATED AS
MODELS BRING RATHER DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION ON WED NIGHT INTO
EARLY ON THU. WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND THE COLD AIR ALOFT...BELOW
NORMAL HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FOR THU. SOME CLEARING SHOULD TAKE
PLACE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS FOR LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WITH
MODERATION IN THE AIRMASS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THIS COLD FRONT
WILL WORK ACROSS THE AREA FROM LATE FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. THIS FRONT WILL
PROBABLY BRING NOT MUCH MORE THAN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY
A SPRINKLE OR TWO. THE ECMWF IS COLDER WITH THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE
FRONT...ESPECIALLY BY THE TIME IT BRINGS MUCH LOWER HEIGHTS ACROSS
THE AREA ON SAT WITH THE STRONGER SHORTWAVE. THE MODEL BLEND OF TEMPS
AND POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT FROM LATE FRI INTO SAT NIGHT SEEMED TO BE
THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION AT THIS POINT. BY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT...WITH THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS BEST
AFTER THE END OF THE PERIOD. MODEL DO DIFFER WITH TEMPS AT THAT
POINT...THOUGH...WITH THE MODEL BLEND FAVORED WHICH WAS IN LINE WITH
RECENT ECMWF MOS TEMPS. THIS LEANED TEMPS MORE TOWARD THE TYPICALLY
MORE RELIABLE FOR THAT TIME RANGE ECMWF.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 205 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014
ANOTHER LINE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH EASTERN KY THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ALONG AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT. CEILINGS AND
VIS COULD BRIEFLY DROP AS THE LINE MOVES ACROSS THE TAF SITES...WITH
MVFR OR VERY BRIEF IFR EXPECTED. SO FAR...THERE HAS BEEN NO LIGHTNING
SHOWING UP ON THE RADAR...SO EXPECT TAF SITES TO REMAIN THUNDERSTORM
FREE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS WELL. THE OTHER CONCERN WILL
BE THE CONTINUED WIND GUSTS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. EXPECT
GUSTS OUT OF THE S AND SW BETWEEN 15 AND 30 KNOTS AT THE TAF SITES
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING UNTIL THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS CLEAR OF
THE TAF SITE. WINDS SHOULD MAKE THE SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO MORE WESTERLY
AFTER THE FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH A DISSIPATING
TREND AFTER 00Z. SHOWERS WILL REMAIN OVER A FEW AREAS TONIGHT BUT
SOME BRIEF CLEARING IS POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT. IF THIS DOES
OCCUR...SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP AT THE SITES ALONG WITH SOME LOWER
CEILINGS. THE ACTUAL LOW WILL BEGIN PASSING OVER THE REGION DURING
THE DAY TOMORROW...BRINGING THE RETURN OF RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ088-118.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JMW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1019 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1018 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014
UPDATED THE FORECAST...MAINLY THE POPS...TO MAKE SURE THAT ONGOING
TRENDS WERE BETTER REFLECTED. CURRENTLY...AN AREA OF WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS IS SLOWLY MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
CWA. THERE IS A BREAK IN THE ACTION ALONG THE WESTERN CWA
BORDER...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ACTUAL
FRONT CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL KY. THIS ONGOING SCENARIO IS ILL DEFINED
IN ANY OF THE SHORT TERM MODELS...EXCEPT MAYBE THE HRRR WHICH IS
STILL SEVERAL HOURS TOO SLOW. AS SUCH...WENT THROUGH THE POP GRIDS
AND MANUALLY TWEAKED THEM HOUR BY HOUR TO BETTER SHOW THE TRENDS OF
THE TWO LINES AND BREAK IN BETWEEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR IN CASE FURTHER UPDATES NEED TO BE MADE.
ALSO...GIVEN THE LACK OF THUNDER FOR THIS EVENT ACROSS THE
REGION...REDUCED THUNDER MENTION TO ONLY ISOLATED IN THE MOST
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS. EVEN THEN...DON/T KNOW IF WE WILL SEE MUCH
IN THE WAY OF THUNDER WITH THIS EVENT. ALSO LOADED IN THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONAL DATA FOR TEMPS...DEW POINTS...AND WINDS...TO MAKE SURE
THE NEAR TERM FORECAST WAS WELL ON TRACK WITH ONGOING CONDITIONS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 715 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014
FOR THE MOST PART...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. HOWEVER...HAVE FINE
TUNED THE POPS FOR THE LINE OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. A
SLIGHTLY QUICKER MOVEMENT OF THE LINE SEEMS TO BE THE CASE AND HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS FOR THIS. THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE IN WESTERN
KENTUCKY ALONG I-65 THIS HOUR AND LOOKS TO BE ARRIVING IN EASTERN
KENTUCKY BY 18Z. FOR NOW...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AND THE HIGHER WIND
GUSTS THREAT STILL LOOKS TO BE VALID. HAVE SENT OUT A NEW ZFP FOR THE
POPS BEING ADJUSTED AND INPUT THE LATEST OBS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE A LINE OF SHOWERS JUST
ENTERING THE I-75 CORRIDOR AS HEAVY SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE NORTH OUT OF TN INTO KY. THE GENERAL PROGRESSION
OF THE LINE IS EASTWARD...THOUGH VERY SLOWLY. SOUTHEAST WINDS
PERPENDICULAR ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS SEEMS TO BE CREATING A DOWN SLOPE
EFFECT ON THE INCOMING RAINFALL AS IT CREEPS EAST. THIS IS EXPECTED
TO BE OVERCOME HEADING INTO THE MORNING HOURS. EVEN SO ADJUSTED THE
POPS FOR A QUICKER EXIT TONIGHT AS THE DURATION APPEARS TO BE
SHORTER. OBSERVATIONS SO FAR HAVE SHOWN WIND GUSTS GETTING INTO THE
30 TO 40 RANGE IN SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN. BECAUSE
OF THIS...DECIDED TO CONTINUE WITH THE SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THE CONTINUED
WIND THREAT. WHILE A FEW MORE BROKEN LINES OF STRONGER SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THE MORNING HOURS...THE MAIN SEVERE
THREAT IS MARGINAL FOR NOW. THIS MAY CHANGE HEADING INTO THE DAY WITH
SOME HEATING AFTER DAYBREAK...PERHAPS ENOUGH FOR SOME INCREASED
INSTABILITY BUT THE MAIN LINE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY ALREADY BE OVER
MUCH OF EASTERN KENTUCKY BY THEN. THIS WILL NEED MONITORED HEADING
INTO THE HOURS AFTER DAYBREAK TODAY...ESPECIALLY WITH THE LOW LEVEL
JET OF 50 TO 60 KNOTS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ANY
INCREASE IN INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH FOR THE LINE TO REORGANIZE.
DESPITE THE LACK OF INSTABILITY...THE STRONG WIND THREAT WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF A PREFRONTAL
TROUGH AND THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT THIS EVENING. THE ACTUAL FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WILL PROVIDE A SECONDARY CONCERN FOR
WINDS BUT ALSO FOR MORE HEAVY RAINFALL. WITH THIS...WILL KEEP THE
MENTION OF STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS TODAY...HEAVY RAINFALL
WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING...AND THE STRONG
WIND THREAT.
THROUGH THIS EVENING THE NAM AND GFS ARE SUGGESTING AN EARLIER EXIT
WHICH MAY RESULT IN A NEED TO EXPIRE PRODUCTS A BIT EARLIER BUT
ASSESS THIS LATER IN THE DAY. THIS APPEARS TO BE THE FORECAST
CHALLENGE AS WHEN THIS FRONT EXITS. MODELS STILL AGREE WITH THE
SCENARIO OF THE LINGERING UPPER LOW AND WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER OVER
THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT AND ALSO FOR WEDNESDAY DUE TO THIS. TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL FEATURE A BREAK IN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AS THE DRY SLOT WILL BE OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY BEFORE A SECONDARY
TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AND
WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS. FOR NOW...SOME INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT
IN THE AFTERNOON BUT WITH 200 J/KG...EXPECTING SHOWERS TO BE THE
CASE.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014
THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM MEXICO
NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO UPPER MS VALLEY REGION AND A
CLOSED LOW OVER THE OH VALLEY REGION TO ITS EAST. THE AXIS OF THIS
CLOSED LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS EAST KY ON WED
NIGHT...WITH THE CLOSED LOW EXPECTED TO DEPART TO THE NORTHEAST
GRADUALLY ON THU. THE RIDGE INITIALLY IN PLACE OVER THE PLAINS SHOULD
WORK EAST AND WEAKEN/FLATTEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. THE
PATTERN SHOULD GRADUALLY EVOLVE TO PATTERN WITH GENERALLY A RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NORTH INTO THE ROCKIES
AND A TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA SOUTH INTO THE EASTERN CONUS FROM
THE WEEKEND THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. A FEW SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE
THROUGH THIS TROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK. THE
FIRST SHORTWAVE SHOULD WORK ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND TN VALLEY REGIONS
ON FRI NIGHT. THE 0Z ECMWF AND 0Z GFS THEN DIFFER WITH HEIGHTS OVER
THE GREAT LAKES WITH THE GFS MORE CLOSED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND
CONSOLIDATED...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE AND BRINGS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE INTO THE OH VALLEY FROM SAT INTO SAT EVENING. MODELS GENERALLY
HAVE HEIGHT RISES AND WEAK RIDGING FOR SUNDAY...WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
MOVING INTO THE OH VALLEY LATE IN THE PERIOD.
THE PERIOD SHOULD BEGIN RATHER UNSETTLED WITH SHOWERS ANTICIPATED AS
MODELS BRING RATHER DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION ON WED NIGHT INTO
EARLY ON THU. WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND THE COLD AIR ALOFT...BELOW
NORMAL HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FOR THU. SOME CLEARING SHOULD TAKE
PLACE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS FOR LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WITH
MODERATION IN THE AIRMASS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THIS COLD FRONT
WILL WORK ACROSS THE AREA FROM LATE FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. THIS FRONT WILL
PROBABLY BRING NOT MUCH MORE THAN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY
A SPRINKLE OR TWO. THE ECMWF IS COLDER WITH THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE
FRONT...ESPECIALLY BY THE TIME IT BRINGS MUCH LOWER HEIGHTS ACROSS
THE AREA ON SAT WITH THE STRONGER SHORTWAVE. THE MODEL BLEND OF TEMPS
AND POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT FROM LATE FRI INTO SAT NIGHT SEEMED TO BE
THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION AT THIS POINT. BY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT...WITH THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS BEST
AFTER THE END OF THE PERIOD. MODEL DO DIFFER WITH TEMPS AT THAT
POINT...THOUGH...WITH THE MODEL BLEND FAVORED WHICH WAS IN LINE WITH
RECENT ECMWF MOS TEMPS. THIS LEANED TEMPS MORE TOWARD THE TYPICALLY
MORE RELIABLE FOR THAT TIME RANGE ECMWF.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 715 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014
A WEAKENING LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. CEILINGS AND VIS WILL DROP AS THE LINE
CONTINUES THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY AND WILL KEEP MOSTLY BELOW IFR AT
THE SITES THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT. AS THIS SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE OTHER CONCERN HERE WILL BE WINDS WHICH
WILL GUST OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AND UP TO 25 KNOTS AT SOME LOCATIONS.
WINDS SHOULD SHIFT FROM SOUTH EAST TO SOUTHWEST BY THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE AREA WITH WINDS DISSIPATING AFTER 00Z. SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
OVER A FEW AREAS TONIGHT BUT SOME BRIEF CLEARING IS POSSIBLE BEHIND
THE FRONT. IF THIS DOES OCCUR...SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP AT THE SITES
ALONG WITH SOME LOWER CEILINGS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR KYZ050-058-059-069-
080-085>088-108-111>118.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ068-079-083-
084.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ088-118.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GRAY ME
912 PM EDT WED OCT 15 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY AND WILL FINALLY CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. A WEAK
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON FRIDAY. A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AND WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
.UPDATE...
PUSHED TIMING OF PRECIPITATION BACK A FEW HOURS BASED ON LATEST
MODEL CONSENSUS...NAMELY THE WRF AND RAP MODELS. SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS HAVE BEGUN TO FALL IN THE HIGHER PEAKS AND HAVE INCREASED
POPS IN THESE AREAS. SHOWERS INCREASE MOSTLY OVER NH THROUGH 2
AM AND THEN EASTWARD THROUGH DAYBREAK AS LLJ AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
SHIFT OVER THE REGION.
AREAS CURRENTLY RECEIVING RAINFALL FROM NORTHERN NY STATE TO
COASTAL NJ HAVE SEEN WARM RAIN PROCESSES DOMINATING WITH HEAVY...
TRAINING PRECIPITATION BANDS CONTRIBUTING TO HIGH RAINFALL RATES
OF A HALF AN INCH OR MORE PER HOUR. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE
SLOWLY EAST OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE.
INCIDENTALLY TONIGHT`S 00Z KGYX SOUNDING HAS 1.20 INCHES FOR
PRECIPITABLE WATER... THIS IS NEAR THE 80TH PERCENTILE FOR
OCTOBER. STILL EXPECTING THE HEAVIEST AXIS OF RAIN TO REACH NH AND
MAINE BETWEEN 8 AM AND NOON.
&&
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A MOIST SOUTHERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.
THIS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF DRIZZLE AND SHOWERS AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES...BUT THE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT. AREAS OF DENSE
FOG MAY FORM AS WELL...AND THIS COULD REQUIRE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
FOR A PORTION OF THE AREA LATER ON. STEADIER SHOWERS SHOULD ARRIVE
IN WESTERN NH LATE TONIGHT...BUT THE HEAVY STUFF SHOULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY THURSDAY. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...WARM
AND MUGGY TONIGHT WITH DEWPOINTS HOLDING IN THE 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT REMAINS PRETTY MUCH
STATUS QUO WITH A HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT EXPECTED. THE HEAVIEST
BANDS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THURSDAY MORNING IN THE
WEST...EVENTUALLY TRANSLATING TO THE EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AND PUSH THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WE ARE STILL EXPECTING A
GOOD 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES OF RAINFALL...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLY TO AROUND 3 INCHES ALONG WINDWARD SLOPES OF THE WHITES
AND MAINE FOOTHILLS AS TROPICAL MOISTURE GETS ADVECTED IN ON STOUT
SELY INFLOW. CONVERSELY...LOCATIONS ON THE LEEWARD SIDE OF THE
MOUNTAINS...SUCH AS WHITEFIELD NH...SHOULD SEE MUCH LESS RAINFALL.
PERHAPS NOT EVEN A HALF INCH THERE.
ENOUGH INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT TO
ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLD THUNDER. MORE PERSISTENT HEAVIER CONVECTIVE
BANDS MAY BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN SOME DECENT WIND GUSTS.
HOWEVER...AS OF THIS WRITING THE BOUNDARY LAYER LOOKS TO BE A BIT
TOO INVERTED FOR A STRONG WIND EVENT. IN ADDITION...SOME OF THE
MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE SPEED OF THE LOW LEVEL JET AS WELL.
MOST ARE 40 KT OR LOWER IN THE LOWEST 5 KFT. THEREFORE...DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THURSDAY
NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING.
FRESHENING WESTERLY FLOW WILL CLEAR LINGERING STRATUS THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON. MAY SEE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS IN NORTHEAST
ZONES DURING THE MORNING BUT THESE SHOULD CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA
BY EARLY AFTERNOON. NOT A LOT IN THE WAY OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT AND INCREASING SUN AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL AGAIN SEND
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID 60S TO LOWER
70S.
IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS FRIDAY NIGHT AS WEAK RIDGE FLATTENS AND
SECONDARY COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WILL SEE VARIABLE
CLOUDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND JUST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE.
EXPECT TEMPS TO RANGE THROUGH THE 40S NORTH AND IN THE UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S SOUTH.
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY BRINGING INCREASING
CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS. BEST CHANCE
OF PRECIP WILL BE IN NORTHWEST ZONES BUT NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH IN
THE WAY OF QPF. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY UNIFORM ACROSS THE
REGION WITH MOST AREAS REACHING THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
MORE OF THE SAME FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS DEEP TROUGH
ALOFT KEEPS UNSTABLE AIR OVER THE REGION. WILL SEE MUCH COOLER
TEMPS ON SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH HIGHS NOT GETTING OUT OF THE
40S IN THE NORTH AND LOWER TO MID 50S SOUTH. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL ADD TO THE CHILL.
STRONG NORTHWEST GRADIENT WILL PERSIST INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL
DIMINISH SOMEWHAT ON MONDAY AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER LABRADOR
CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY. EXPECT CLOUDS TO DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT
DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY.
AFTER A CHILLY START WILL ONCE AGAIN ONLY SEE HIGHS IN THE MID 40S
TO MID 50S.
UPPER TROUGH WILL ONCE AGAIN DIG INTO THE NEW ENGLAND AS FRESH
BATCH OF JET ENERGY DIGS INTO THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL KEEP CLOUDS
AND SCATTERED SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
MIDWEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR OR LOWER EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT IN LOW STRATUS AND FOG. THESE CONDITIONS LOOK TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT IN STRATUS...FOG...AND
OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
LONG TERM...IFR/LIFR EARLY FRIDAY BECOMING VFR. VFR FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA HAS BEEN HOISTED FOR ALL WATERS THU THROUGH FRI.
LOW PROBABILITY OF MARGINAL GALE GUSTS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
THURS EVENING...BUT LOOKS LIKE MIXING WILL BE LIMITED.
LONG TERM...SCA`S LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
EXPECTING A 1.5 TO 2.5 INCH RAINFALL EVENT STARTING LATE TONIGHT.
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. NO
FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME AS THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
IN LOCATIONS OF HEAVIEST BANDS OF RAIN. HOWEVER...URBAN AND LOW
LYING FLOODING IS LIKELY. SOME FLASHIER STREAMS MAY SHOW VERY
SHARP RISES. THE MOST LIKELY CANDIDATE FOR A WATCH WOULD BE THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS AND MAINE FOOTHILLS...BUT WILL LET NEXT SHIFT SEE
NEW DATA.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THURSDAY TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HANES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
441 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 441 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A SHARP TROF CENTERED OVER
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH A CLOSED LOW OVER IL. JET STREAK ACROSS
NRN ONTARIO/QUEBEC THAT WAS ONE OF THE BIG DRIVERS FOR THE MDT TO
HVY PCPN ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES LAST NIGHT IS SHIFTING E.
HOWEVER...FCST AREA STILL REMAINS UNDER UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THE DEPARTING JET STREAK AND ALSO IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE LEFT EXIT OF ANOTHER JET STREAK WITH A VERY
SHARP ISOTACH GRADIENT ORIENTED FROM THE LWR OHIO VALLEY TO LAKE MI
AND WRN LWR MI. PCPN MORE STRONGLY TIED TO THE LEFT EXIT OF THE
LATTER JET STREAK HAS BEEN SURGING N UP LAKE MI TODAY AND IS NOW
SPREADING INTO THE ERN FCST AREA.
TONIGHT...COMBINATION OF RATHER STRONG DEEP LAYER FORCING PER
QVECTORS AND LEFT EXIT OF THE WRN GREAT LAKES UPPER JET WHICH IS
TRANSLATING SLIGHTLY EASTWARD WILL SUPPORT BEST CHC OF RAIN OVER THE
ERN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA. SHRA COVERAGE WILL PROBABLY DIMINISH
SOME EARLY THIS EVENING PER RADAR TRENDS...BUT EXPECT NEW
DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR QUICKLY DURING THE EVENING GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF
FORCING. GREATEST COVERAGE SHOULD BE OVERNIGHT WHEN ANOTHER PUSH OF
MOISTURE ADVECTION ALSO OCCURS IN THE 850-700MB LAYER. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SOME LOCALLY MDT TO HVY PCPN. TO THE W...LOW-MID LEVEL
DRYING OCCURRING THIS AFTN WILL HOLD TONIGHT...SO DRY WEATHER WILL
PREVAIL THERE. MORE CHALLENGING PART OF THE FCST IS ACROSS THE CNTRL
WHERE DELINEATION BTWN DRY AND RAIN WILL OCCUR...SO A FAIRLY TIGHT
POP GRADIENT WILL BE PAINTED ACROSS MAINLY DICKINSON AND MARQUETTE
COUNTIES. ON ANOTHER NOTE...THE STRONGEST WINDS ON LAKE SUPERIOR
HAVE OCCURRED CLOSER TO THE UPPER MICHIGAN SHORE TODAY...LIMITING
WAVE HEIGHTS OVER WHAT THEY COULD BE IF THE STRONGER WINDS COVERED
MORE OF THE OPEN WATER. EVEN SO...CONTINUED STEADY WINDS WITH SOME
EXPANSION OF HIGHER SPEEDS OVER THE OPEN WATERS MAY PUSH WAVES UP
SOME TONIGHT...LEADING TO MINOR BEACH EROSION ALONG THE SHORES OF
MARQUETTE AND ALGER COUNTIES INTO WED.
ON WED...QVECTOR DIVERGENCE AND UPPER JET GRADUALLY SHIFT E THOUGH
SOME WEAK FORCING DOES LINGER OVER THE E. WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS IN
THE MORNING OVER THE E WITH ONLY LOW CHC POPS LINGERING IN THE AFTN.
THE W WILL REMAIN DRY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014
THE FORECAST FOR LATE THIS WEEK REMAINS COMPLICATED AS THE UPPER LOW
PERSISTS OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THURSDAY...LEADING TO
THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA UNDER CONTINUED CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT...WHILE THE WESTERN AREA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK
RIDGING. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE EAST UNDER GENERALLY CLOUDY SKIES WED NIGHT INTO
THU...WHILE THE WEST MAY END UP WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.
HOWEVER...EVEN WITH THE EAST SEEING RAIN CHANCES...THIS AREA WILL BE
QUITE FAR REMOVED FROM THE UPPER LOW ITSELF AND ANY RAIN SHOWERS
WILL BE SCATTERED AT BEST...NOT ANYTHING LIKE AN ALL DAY RAIN LIKE
THE EAST HAS SEEN TODAY.
FINALLY...BY FRIDAY...AN UPPER DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER MS VLY AND MERGE WITH THE
GREAT LAKES UPPER LOW. THIS WILL ALLOW THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO
MOVE THROUGH AND ALSO ALLOW FOR MOISTURE TO WRAP AROUND THE MEAN
UPPER LOW AS IT MOVES TO HUDSON BAY. AS SUCH...ALONG AND BEHIND THE
SFC AND UPPER TOUGH THERE WILL BE BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN. IN
FACT...THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH SHOW UP TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH OF
RAIN FOR THE WEST FRI AFTN/EVENING. THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE
COLDER 850MB TEMPS DROPPING IN TO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT AS WELL
AS CYCLONIC UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE WESTERN UPPER PENINSULA. AS
SUCH...WILL RAISE POPS TO HIGH CHC OR LIKELY ACROSS THE WEST. WITH
THE CYCLONIC FLOW AND INDICATIONS FROM THE 12Z ECMWF THAT AN
ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT...WILL MAINTAIN
HIGHER POPS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR DUE TO LAKE ENHANCED PCPN. IN
FACT...IF THE COLDER ECMWF VERIFIES WITH 1000-850MB THICKNESS VALUES
BELOW 1300M...THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF MARQUETTE WILL LIKELY SEE
THEIR FIRST MEASURABLE SNOWFALL OF THE YEAR FRI NIGHT. AS
SUCH...WILL ALSO MENTION SNOW A LITTLE MORE ON FRI NIGHT IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF MARQUETTE.
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...EXPECT LAKE EFFECT PCPN TO GRADUALLY END
SATURDAY/SAT EVENING AS THE LOW MOVES OUT AND HIGH PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE BUILDS IN. WILL MAINTAIN HIGH POPS ACROSS THE
KEWEENAW AND THE EAST DUE TO THE NW PBL FLOW AND 850MB TEMPS -2C TO
-5C. RIDGING BUILDS IN BRIEFLY ON SUNDAY...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
QUIET AND WARMER DAY. HOWEVER...THE NWP START TO DISAGREE ON MON
REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE NEXT TOUGH DIVING DOWN INTO THE
TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE SUPPRESSED THAN
THE ECMWF...WITH THE GFS GENERALLY DRY FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE THE
ECWMF SHOWS AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE FOR RAIN WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM A
LITTLE FURTHER NORTH. FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FCST BUT IT
POSSIBLE THAT POPS WILL NEED TO BE INTRODUCED AT SOME POINT FOR MON.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 137 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014
DRIER AIR IS SLOWLY FILTERING INTO WRN UPPER MI...RESULTING IN CIGS
IMPROVING. KCMX HAS ALREADY IMPROVED TO VFR...AND CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR THRU THE END OF THE FCST PERIOD. AT KIWD...EXPECT
IFR/MVFR CIGS TO SCATTER OUT IN THE NEXT FEW HRS...LEAVING VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST PERIOD. HOWEVER...AT KCMX
AND KIWD...THERE IS A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR LIFR CIGS TO REAPPEAR LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY WED MORNING AS NOCTURNAL COOLING AND UPSLOPE FLOW MAY
CONSPIRE TO CAUSE STRATUS TO FORM. WITH VERY LOW CONFIDENCE...
CONDITIONS WERE KEPT VFR...BUT DID INCLUDE SCT 200FT CLOUDS AT KIWD
WHERE UPSLOPING IS MORE FAVORABLE. KSAW REMAINS IN THE MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THERE ARE SOME HINTS FROM GUIDANCE THAT LOW-LEVELS MAY DRY
OUT SOME LATER THIS AFTN...BUT GIVEN OBS/SATELLITE TRENDS...PLAN TO
KEEP FCST MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH LIFR IMPROVING TO LOW MVFR BY LATE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING. WILL THEN KEEP LOW MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FCST PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST AT KSAW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 20-30 KT TONIGHT ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REMAINS
STATIONARY. THE LOW STARTS TO WEAKEN ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO
WEAKEN DURING THE DAY AND REMAIN BELOW 20 KT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE ON FRIDAY AND THEN
MERGES WITH THE LOW OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WHILE STRENGTHENING.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR N-NW WINDS TO DEVELOP FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
WINDS COULD INCREASE TO NEAR GALE FORCE SAT BEFORE DIMINISHING
SUNDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...MRD
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...MRD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
427 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 428 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW DEEP UPR TROF OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS...WITH CLOSED LO MOVING SLOWLY ENEWD THRU SE IOWA.
WELL DEFINED AREA OF COLDER CLD TOPS IN THE COMMA HEAD OF THE CLOUD
LEAF ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS PRESENT OVER WI AND UPR MI.
COMBINATION OF DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC...VIGOROUS UPR DVGC IN RRQ OF
H3 JET STREAK IN NW ONTARIO AND IN EXIT REGION OF ANOTHER JET STREAK
MOVING N THRU THE MS RIVER VALLEY ARND THE CLOSED LO AND VERY MOIST
AIR WITH 00Z PWAT AS HI AS 1.30 INCH AT GRB /ABOUT 225 PCT OF
NORMAL/ IS RESULTING IN WDSPRD RA OVER THE CWA. THE RA IS HEAVIEST
OVER THE ERN CWA WHERE THE H85 ISOTHERMS ARE MOST CLOSELY PACKED IN
PRESENCE OF SHARP H85-7 FGEN AND SFC-H7 MSTR CNVGC IS MOST
PRONOUNCED NEAR THIS FRONTAL ZN. RADARS TO THE S INDICATE A HINT OF
A DRY SLOT IS MOVING N THRU ERN WI...WITH PCPN THERE TAKING ON A
MORE SHOWERY LOOK. MUCH DRIER MID LVL AIR SHOWN ON THE 00Z INL RAOB
IS KEEPING FAR WRN LK SUP DRY.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS THRU TNGT WL BE FOCUSED ON PCPN COVERAGE AND
AMOUNTS ASSOCIATED WITH CLOSED LO THAT IS FCST TO MOVE TO NEAR
CHICAGO BY 12Z WED.
TODAY...CLOSED LO IS FCST TO DRIFT ONLY SLOWLY TO THE E INTO
NCENTRAL IL BY 00Z WED...WITH DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC MAINTAINED OVER
ALL OF UPR MI EXCEPT FOR THE FAR W...WHERE MODELS INDICATE MORE
AGGRESSIVE LO-MID LVL DRYING WL RESULT IN LARGER SCALE QVECTOR DVGC
BY THE AFTN. AT THE SAME TIME...THE UPR JET STREAK OVER NW ONTARIO
IS FCST TO DRIFT TO THE NE AND OVER JAMES BAY TOWARD 00Z. WHILE THIS
SHIFT WL RESULT IN DIMINISHING UPR DVGC...MOVEMENT OF JET STREAK ON
THE ERN FLANK OF THE CLOSED LO INTO LOWER MI WL LIKELY MAINTAIN SOME
GREATER UPR DVGC OVER THE E HALF OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY LATER IN
THE DAY. AXIS OF SHARPEST H85-7 FGEN/SFC-7 MSTR CNVGC IS ALSO FCST
TO SHIFT TO THE NE THIS MRNG AND GIVE WAY TO SOME H85-7 DRYING. THE
RESULT OF THESE SHIFTS IN DYNAMIC SUPPORT...ALONG WITH SOME DRYING
MOVING IN FM THE S THIS MRNG AND FROM THE W THRU THE DAY SHOULD BE A
DIMINISHING TREND IN THE RA COVERAGE/AMOUNTS. BUT PERSISTENCE OF
DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC OVER ALL BUT THE FAR W AND COVERAGE OF PCPN
UNDER THE COMMA HEAD FEATURE WELL UPSTREAM THRU WI AND INTO SE MN
EARLY THIS MRNG SHOULD MAINTAIN AT LEAST SCT-NMRS SHOWERS OVER THE E
HALF. CONSIDERING THE WELL DEFINED COMMA CLD AND FCST LINGERING DEEP
LYR QVECTOR CNVGC AS WELL AS THE SLOWLY FCST VEERING H85 WINDS...
SUSPECT THE MODELS MAY BE A BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE ON THE MID LVL
DRYING...AT LEAST OVER THE CENTRAL AND E. SO TENDED TO SLOW THE
DRYING TREND A BIT FM THE W. BUT THERE STILL COULD BE SOME AFTN
SUNSHINE OVER THE W...WHICH WL BOOST TEMPS A FEW DEGREES. THERE IS
LIKELY TO BE A RESURGENCE IN THE POPS ESPECIALLY OVER THE SCENTRAL
AND E LATER IN THE DAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF MORE UPR DVGC IN THE LEFT
EXIT REGION IN THE UPR JET MOVING INTO LOWER MI AS WELL AS ANOTHER
AREA OF SHARPER H85-7 FGEN SHOWN BY SOME OF THE GUIDANCE.
TNGT...BULK OF THE MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE WDSPRD RA
MAY IMPACT THE CENTRAL AND ERN CWA INTO THE EARLY MRNG HRS UNDER
PERSISTENT DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC AND UNDER AREA OF UPR DVGC IN LEFT
EXIT OF JET STREAK SHIFTING SLOWLY TO THE E THRU LOWER MI TO THE NE
OF CLOSED LO FCST TO DRIFT SLOWLY ENE TOWARD SRN LK MI. THE PCPN
LOOKS TO BE A BIT HEAVIER IN THE EVNG OVER THE SCENTRAL CWA WHERE
AXIS OF SHARPER H85-7 FGEN IS FCST TO ACCOMPANY THIS HIER LVL
SUPPORT. OTRW...INCRSG NNE WINDS TDAY THRU TNGT WL CAUSE WAVE HGTS
TO BUILD SUFFICIENTLY TO PERHAPS CAUSE SOME MINOR BEACH EROSION
ALONG THE SHORES OF MQT AND ALGER COUNTIES.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014
THE FORECAST FOR LATE THIS WEEK REMAINS COMPLICATED AS THE UPPER LOW
PERSISTS OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THURSDAY...LEADING TO
THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA UNDER CONTINUED CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT...WHILE THE WESTERN AREA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK
RIDGING. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE EAST UNDER GENERALLY CLOUDY SKIES WED NIGHT INTO
THU...WHILE THE WEST MAY END UP WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.
HOWEVER...EVEN WITH THE EAST SEEING RAIN CHANCES...THIS AREA WILL BE
QUITE FAR REMOVED FROM THE UPPER LOW ITSELF AND ANY RAIN SHOWERS
WILL BE SCATTERED AT BEST...NOT ANYTHING LIKE AN ALL DAY RAIN LIKE
THE EAST HAS SEEN TODAY.
FINALLY...BY FRIDAY...AN UPPER DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER MS VLY AND MERGE WITH THE
GREAT LAKES UPPER LOW. THIS WILL ALLOW THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO
MOVE THROUGH AND ALSO ALLOW FOR MOISTURE TO WRAP AROUND THE MEAN
UPPER LOW AS IT MOVES TO HUDSON BAY. AS SUCH...ALONG AND BEHIND THE
SFC AND UPPER TOUGH THERE WILL BE BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN. IN
FACT...THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH SHOW UP TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH OF
RAIN FOR THE WEST FRI AFTN/EVENING. THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE
COLDER 850MB TEMPS DROPPING IN TO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT AS WELL
AS CYCLONIC UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE WESTERN UPPER PENINSULA. AS
SUCH...WILL RAISE POPS TO HIGH CHC OR LIKELY ACROSS THE WEST. WITH
THE CYCLONIC FLOW AND INDICATIONS FROM THE 12Z ECMWF THAT AN
ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT...WILL MAINTAIN
HIGHER POPS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR DUE TO LAKE ENHANCED PCPN. IN
FACT...IF THE COLDER ECMWF VERIFIES WITH 1000-850MB THICKNESS VALUES
BELOW 1300M...THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF MARQUETTE WILL LIKELY SEE
THEIR FIRST MEASURABLE SNOWFALL OF THE YEAR FRI NIGHT. AS
SUCH...WILL ALSO MENTION SNOW A LITTLE MORE ON FRI NIGHT IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF MARQUETTE.
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...EXPECT LAKE EFFECT PCPN TO GRADUALLY END
SATURDAY/SAT EVENING AS THE LOW MOVES OUT AND HIGH PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE BUILDS IN. WILL MAINTAIN HIGH POPS ACROSS THE
KEWEENAW AND THE EAST DUE TO THE NW PBL FLOW AND 850MB TEMPS -2C TO
-5C. RIDGING BUILDS IN BRIEFLY ON SUNDAY...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
QUIET AND WARMER DAY. HOWEVER...THE NWP START TO DISAGREE ON MON
REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE NEXT TOUGH DIVING DOWN INTO THE
TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE SUPPRESSED THAN
THE ECMWF...WITH THE GFS GENERALLY DRY FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE THE
ECWMF SHOWS AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE FOR RAIN WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM A
LITTLE FURTHER NORTH. FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FCST BUT IT
POSSIBLE THAT POPS WILL NEED TO BE INTRODUCED AT SOME POINT FOR MON.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 137 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014
DRIER AIR IS SLOWLY FILTERING INTO WRN UPPER MI...RESULTING IN CIGS
IMPROVING. KCMX HAS ALREADY IMPROVED TO VFR...AND CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR THRU THE END OF THE FCST PERIOD. AT KIWD...EXPECT
IFR/MVFR CIGS TO SCATTER OUT IN THE NEXT FEW HRS...LEAVING VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST PERIOD. HOWEVER...AT KCMX
AND KIWD...THERE IS A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR LIFR CIGS TO REAPPEAR LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY WED MORNING AS NOCTURNAL COOLING AND UPSLOPE FLOW MAY
CONSPIRE TO CAUSE STRATUS TO FORM. WITH VERY LOW CONFIDENCE...
CONDITIONS WERE KEPT VFR...BUT DID INCLUDE SCT 200FT CLOUDS AT KIWD
WHERE UPSLOPING IS MORE FAVORABLE. KSAW REMAINS IN THE MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THERE ARE SOME HINTS FROM GUIDANCE THAT LOW-LEVELS MAY DRY
OUT SOME LATER THIS AFTN...BUT GIVEN OBS/SATELLITE TRENDS...PLAN TO
KEEP FCST MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH LIFR IMPROVING TO LOW MVFR BY LATE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING. WILL THEN KEEP LOW MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FCST PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST AT KSAW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 20-30 KT TONIGHT ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REMAINS
STATIONARY. THE LOW STARTS TO WEAKEN ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO
WEAKEN DURING THE DAY AND REMAIN BELOW 20 KT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE ON FRIDAY AND THEN
MERGES WITH THE LOW OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WHILE STRENGTHENING.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR N-NW WINDS TO DEVELOP FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
WINDS COULD INCREASE TO NEAR GALE FORCE SAT BEFORE DIMINISHING
SUNDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...MRD
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...MRD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
326 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014
.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN ILLINOIS IS BEGINNING THE PROCESS
OF PROPAGATING BACK INTO THE COLD AIR AS OCCLUSION BEGINS TO TAKE
SHAPE IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE. AS THIS OCCURS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS, A SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS PROGGED TO TAKE SHAPE NEAR
THE TRIPLE POINT OVER WESTERN LOWER MI WHICH SHOULD HELP USHER THE
DEEPER MOISTURE EAST OF THE AREA BY 06Z. IN THE MEANTIME, WEAKLY
FORCED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM CONVEYOR AND ENHANCED BY
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LEAD EDGE OF THE GRADUALLY DESCENDING DRY SLOT
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE NIGHT. THE 16Z HRRR SUGGESTS THIS COULD TAKE UNTIL AS LATE AS
07-08Z FOR EASTERN AREAS, CONSIDERABLY SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED. THIS CERTAINLY SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS WHICH SHOW VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORWARD MOTION FOR THE
UPSTREAM CYCLONE. THE RAINFALL FORECAST WILL BE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY
TO ALLOW FOR A SLOWER EXIT OF SHOWERS AND LINGERING DRIZZLE. LIGHT
COLD ADVECTION WILL GET UNDERWAY ONCE THE DEEPER MOISTURE EXITS EAST
AND THE COOL AIRMASS OVER SOUTHERN MO/IL/IN ADVECTS INTO THE AREA
WITHIN DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW. LOWS IN THE MID 50S ARE
REASONABLE.
&&
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY
UPPER CUTOFF LOW MEANDERING ACROSS THE REGION WILL IMPACT OUR
WEATHER LOCALLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MAIN MOISTURE PLUME WILL BE
SHUNTED OFF TO THE EAST...BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER IN LOWER
LEVELS TO SUPPORT BOUTS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR
WEDNESDAY SHOW STEEP LAPSE RATES DEVELOPING BELOW 10KFT SO SHOWER
PRODUCTION WILL LIKELY GET A BOOST FROM DIURNAL PROCESSES DURING THE
AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY...A BIT OF ENHANCED THETA-E AT LOWER TO MID
LEVELS WILL BE DRIVEN WESTWARD FROM THE MAIN MOISTURE PLUME OVER THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS IS DUE TO EASTERLY TRAJECTORIES DEVELOPING AS
THE LOW/MID LEVEL CIRCULATION REORIENTS ITSELF TO OUR SOUTH WHILE
DRIFTING EASTWARD. WITH THE DISORGANIZED NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM
HOWEVER...POPS WILL BE KEPT AT LOW/MID LEVEL CHANCE RANGE.
ADDITIONAL BOUTS OF SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY AS
HIGHER THETA-E CONTINUES TO WRAP INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST. WEAK
SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING AN
END TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES. TEMPERATURES BOTH WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE AS THERE IS NOT MUCH COLD AIR
BENEATH THE UPPER LOW. CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS ELEVATED.
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SWING THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
REGION ON FRIDAY BRINGING YET AGAIN ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS
TO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. WHILE RAIN SHOWERS COULD BE POSSIBLE
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE AREA...THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS LOOKS
TO BE IN THE NORTHERN CWA. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING SOME MUCH NEEDED DRY
WEATHER TO THE AREA. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL BRING A
RETURN OF RAIN ON MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY MILD ON
FRIDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S BEFORE DROPPING DOWN INTO THE MID 50S
FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR TREND STARING OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S ON
FRIDAY NIGHT AND DROPPING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S FOR THE REST OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
MODERATELY STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS. THIS HAS
BROUGHT IN A MILD AIRMASS AND AREAS OF RAIN WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING SOUTH TO NORTH. THE
SURFACE LOW WILL BROADEN AND WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD...CAUSING THE WINDS TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR THE FAR NORTHERN ZONE OF LAKE HURON NEAR THE
STRAITS WHERE STRONGER NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL ON THE
NORTHERN FLANK OF THE LOW. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW
GALE CRITERIA. BOUTS OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...BUT WITH LIGHTER WINDS THAN TODAY. STRONGER
SOUTHWESTERLY/WESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS
A COLDER AIRMASS SPILLS INTO THE REGION...WHEN ADDITIONAL MARINE
HEADLINES WILL BE POSSIBLE.
&&
.AVIATION...ISSUED 1220 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014
//DISCUSSION...
LIGHT RAIN IS ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS HAS PREVENTED DETERIORATION OF CEILINGS
THUS FAR, BUT UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT THIS WILL CHANGE AS
DEEPER MOISTURE OVER EASTERN INDIANA AND WESTERN OHIO LIFT THROUGH
THE AREA ROUGHLY 18Z-03Z. DURING THIS TIME, MVFR CEILINGS WILL TAKE
HOLD WITH VSBY RANGING FROM VFR TO IFR DEPENDING ON VARIABLE SHOWER
INTENSITY. OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNTOS REMAIN POSSIBLE
DURING LULLS IN SHOWER ACTIVITY. PRECIP WILL END AS DRY SLOT WRAPS
IN FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE EVENING, BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN LOCKED IN PLACE ENSURING LOW MVFR CIGS THROUGH TONIGHT AND
PERHAPS A PERIOD OF DRIZZLE EARLY.
//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FEET AFTER 19Z.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR
BEACH...UNTIL MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT
HURON...UNTIL 8 PM TUESDAY.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...UNTIL 8 PM TUESDAY.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JVC
LONG TERM....DT/RK
MARINE.......DT
AVIATION.....JVC
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
137 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 428 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW DEEP UPR TROF OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS...WITH CLOSED LO MOVING SLOWLY ENEWD THRU SE IOWA.
WELL DEFINED AREA OF COLDER CLD TOPS IN THE COMMA HEAD OF THE CLOUD
LEAF ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS PRESENT OVER WI AND UPR MI.
COMBINATION OF DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC...VIGOROUS UPR DVGC IN RRQ OF
H3 JET STREAK IN NW ONTARIO AND IN EXIT REGION OF ANOTHER JET STREAK
MOVING N THRU THE MS RIVER VALLEY ARND THE CLOSED LO AND VERY MOIST
AIR WITH 00Z PWAT AS HI AS 1.30 INCH AT GRB /ABOUT 225 PCT OF
NORMAL/ IS RESULTING IN WDSPRD RA OVER THE CWA. THE RA IS HEAVIEST
OVER THE ERN CWA WHERE THE H85 ISOTHERMS ARE MOST CLOSELY PACKED IN
PRESENCE OF SHARP H85-7 FGEN AND SFC-H7 MSTR CNVGC IS MOST
PRONOUNCED NEAR THIS FRONTAL ZN. RADARS TO THE S INDICATE A HINT OF
A DRY SLOT IS MOVING N THRU ERN WI...WITH PCPN THERE TAKING ON A
MORE SHOWERY LOOK. MUCH DRIER MID LVL AIR SHOWN ON THE 00Z INL RAOB
IS KEEPING FAR WRN LK SUP DRY.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS THRU TNGT WL BE FOCUSED ON PCPN COVERAGE AND
AMOUNTS ASSOCIATED WITH CLOSED LO THAT IS FCST TO MOVE TO NEAR
CHICAGO BY 12Z WED.
TODAY...CLOSED LO IS FCST TO DRIFT ONLY SLOWLY TO THE E INTO
NCENTRAL IL BY 00Z WED...WITH DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC MAINTAINED OVER
ALL OF UPR MI EXCEPT FOR THE FAR W...WHERE MODELS INDICATE MORE
AGGRESSIVE LO-MID LVL DRYING WL RESULT IN LARGER SCALE QVECTOR DVGC
BY THE AFTN. AT THE SAME TIME...THE UPR JET STREAK OVER NW ONTARIO
IS FCST TO DRIFT TO THE NE AND OVER JAMES BAY TOWARD 00Z. WHILE THIS
SHIFT WL RESULT IN DIMINISHING UPR DVGC...MOVEMENT OF JET STREAK ON
THE ERN FLANK OF THE CLOSED LO INTO LOWER MI WL LIKELY MAINTAIN SOME
GREATER UPR DVGC OVER THE E HALF OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY LATER IN
THE DAY. AXIS OF SHARPEST H85-7 FGEN/SFC-7 MSTR CNVGC IS ALSO FCST
TO SHIFT TO THE NE THIS MRNG AND GIVE WAY TO SOME H85-7 DRYING. THE
RESULT OF THESE SHIFTS IN DYNAMIC SUPPORT...ALONG WITH SOME DRYING
MOVING IN FM THE S THIS MRNG AND FROM THE W THRU THE DAY SHOULD BE A
DIMINISHING TREND IN THE RA COVERAGE/AMOUNTS. BUT PERSISTENCE OF
DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC OVER ALL BUT THE FAR W AND COVERAGE OF PCPN
UNDER THE COMMA HEAD FEATURE WELL UPSTREAM THRU WI AND INTO SE MN
EARLY THIS MRNG SHOULD MAINTAIN AT LEAST SCT-NMRS SHOWERS OVER THE E
HALF. CONSIDERING THE WELL DEFINED COMMA CLD AND FCST LINGERING DEEP
LYR QVECTOR CNVGC AS WELL AS THE SLOWLY FCST VEERING H85 WINDS...
SUSPECT THE MODELS MAY BE A BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE ON THE MID LVL
DRYING...AT LEAST OVER THE CENTRAL AND E. SO TENDED TO SLOW THE
DRYING TREND A BIT FM THE W. BUT THERE STILL COULD BE SOME AFTN
SUNSHINE OVER THE W...WHICH WL BOOST TEMPS A FEW DEGREES. THERE IS
LIKELY TO BE A RESURGENCE IN THE POPS ESPECIALLY OVER THE SCENTRAL
AND E LATER IN THE DAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF MORE UPR DVGC IN THE LEFT
EXIT REGION IN THE UPR JET MOVING INTO LOWER MI AS WELL AS ANOTHER
AREA OF SHARPER H85-7 FGEN SHOWN BY SOME OF THE GUIDANCE.
TNGT...BULK OF THE MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE WDSPRD RA
MAY IMPACT THE CENTRAL AND ERN CWA INTO THE EARLY MRNG HRS UNDER
PERSISTENT DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC AND UNDER AREA OF UPR DVGC IN LEFT
EXIT OF JET STREAK SHIFTING SLOWLY TO THE E THRU LOWER MI TO THE NE
OF CLOSED LO FCST TO DRIFT SLOWLY ENE TOWARD SRN LK MI. THE PCPN
LOOKS TO BE A BIT HEAVIER IN THE EVNG OVER THE SCENTRAL CWA WHERE
AXIS OF SHARPER H85-7 FGEN IS FCST TO ACCOMPANY THIS HIER LVL
SUPPORT. OTRW...INCRSG NNE WINDS TDAY THRU TNGT WL CAUSE WAVE HGTS
TO BUILD SUFFICIENTLY TO PERHAPS CAUSE SOME MINOR BEACH EROSION
ALONG THE SHORES OF MQT AND ALGER COUNTIES.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014
THE FORECAST FOR WED-WED NIGHT IS COMPLICATED BY SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER IL/IN.
ADDITIONALLY...DETERMINING WHERE AND HOW MUCH PRECIP IS COMPLICATED
BY A SHARP MOISTURE CUTOFF TO VERY DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A RIDGE
AXIS JUST NW OF THE CWA. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP FAR NWRN UPPER MI DRY
AS MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS TO BE THE CASE...BUT HAVE MINIMAL
CONFIDENCE IN EXACT PRECIP AMOUNTS AND LOCATIONS OF GREATEST PRECIP.
LACK OF CONFIDENCE CONTINUES THU AND THU NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW
MERGES WITH A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SRN CANADA. MODELS SHOW A CLOSED
LOW DEVELOPING OVER OR NEAR THE CWA FRI AS A RESULT OF THE MERGER.
UNCERTAINTY COMES FROM MODEL TO MODEL DISAGREEMENT AND RUN TO RUN
DISCONTINUITY ON WHERE THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY TRACKS BEFORE/DURING
THE MERGER. THE 12Z/13 ECMWF BRINGS THE REMNANTS OF THE LOW
CURRENTLY OVER IL ACROSS THE CWA...WHILE THE 00Z/14 GFS MOVES THE
REMNANTS WELL E AND THEN N OF THE CWA. THUS...THE ECMWF HAS LIGHT
RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA ON THU AND THU NIGHT...WHILE THE GFS HAS
ALMOST THE ENTIRE CWA DRY. THE GFS ALSO HAS BACKING FROM THE 00Z/14
NAM AND 12Z/13 GLOBAL GEM. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD CHANCES OF PRECIP
OVER THE ERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA AND SLIGHT CHANCES ELSEWHERE.
GIVEN CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE BEING MUCH DRIER THAN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...DECIDED TO CUT POPS BACK SOME ON THU.
IT DOES LOOK LIKE A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THU NIGHT OR EARLY
FRI...WITH A REINFORCING COLD FRONT LATE FRI OR FRI NIGHT. AT THIS
POINT...CONFIDENCE ACTUALLY INCREASES AS WNW-NW LOW LEVEL FLOW AND
GREATER LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW
WILL LEAD TO LAKE EFFECT PRECIP FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT.
FOR SUN AND MON...MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH WILL MOVE
FAR ENOUGH E TO LIMIT PRECIP CHANCES. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL WITH CONTINUED N-NW FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 137 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014
DRIER AIR IS SLOWLY FILTERING INTO WRN UPPER MI...RESULTING IN CIGS
IMPROVING. KCMX HAS ALREADY IMPROVED TO VFR...AND CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR THRU THE END OF THE FCST PERIOD. AT KIWD...EXPECT
IFR/MVFR CIGS TO SCATTER OUT IN THE NEXT FEW HRS...LEAVING VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST PERIOD. HOWEVER...AT KCMX
AND KIWD...THERE IS A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR LIFR CIGS TO REAPPEAR LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY WED MORNING AS NOCTURNAL COOLING AND UPSLOPE FLOW MAY
CONSPIRE TO CAUSE STRATUS TO FORM. WITH VERY LOW CONFIDENCE...
CONDITIONS WERE KEPT VFR...BUT DID INCLUDE SCT 200FT CLOUDS AT KIWD
WHERE UPSLOPING IS MORE FAVORABLE. KSAW REMAINS IN THE MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THERE ARE SOME HINTS FROM GUIDANCE THAT LOW-LEVELS MAY DRY
OUT SOME LATER THIS AFTN...BUT GIVEN OBS/SATELLITE TRENDS...PLAN TO
KEEP FCST MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH LIFR IMPROVING TO LOW MVFR BY LATE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING. WILL THEN KEEP LOW MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FCST PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST AT KSAW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 428 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014
EXPECT INCREASING NNE WINDS UP TO 30 KTS OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAKE
INTO TONIGHT UNDER TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT TO THE N OF DEEP LO PRES
MOVING TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THERE
COULD BE SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS...ESPECIALLY AT THE HIER PLATFORMS.
AS THE LO TO THE S SLOWLY WEAKENS LATER TONIGHT/WED AND A HI PRES
RIDGE DRIFTS OVER THE UPPER LAKES LATER ON WED...EXPECT WINDS TO
STEADILY DIMINISH UNDER 15 KTS ON WED NIGHT. RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS
WILL THEN PERSIST INTO FRI BEFORE A LO PRES IF FORECAST TO DEVELOP
AND DEEPEN NEAR JAMES BAY. A SHARPENING PRES GRADIENT AROUND THIS
FEATURE WILL BRING INCREASING NW WINDS...WHICH COULD REACH GALE
FORCE ON SAT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
745 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 428 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW DEEP UPR TROF OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS...WITH CLOSED LO MOVING SLOWLY ENEWD THRU SE IOWA.
WELL DEFINED AREA OF COLDER CLD TOPS IN THE COMMA HEAD OF THE CLOUD
LEAF ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS PRESENT OVER WI AND UPR MI.
COMBINATION OF DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC...VIGOROUS UPR DVGC IN RRQ OF
H3 JET STREAK IN NW ONTARIO AND IN EXIT REGION OF ANOTHER JET STREAK
MOVING N THRU THE MS RIVER VALLEY ARND THE CLOSED LO AND VERY MOIST
AIR WITH 00Z PWAT AS HI AS 1.30 INCH AT GRB /ABOUT 225 PCT OF
NORMAL/ IS RESULTING IN WDSPRD RA OVER THE CWA. THE RA IS HEAVIEST
OVER THE ERN CWA WHERE THE H85 ISOTHERMS ARE MOST CLOSELY PACKED IN
PRESENCE OF SHARP H85-7 FGEN AND SFC-H7 MSTR CNVGC IS MOST
PRONOUNCED NEAR THIS FRONTAL ZN. RADARS TO THE S INDICATE A HINT OF
A DRY SLOT IS MOVING N THRU ERN WI...WITH PCPN THERE TAKING ON A
MORE SHOWERY LOOK. MUCH DRIER MID LVL AIR SHOWN ON THE 00Z INL RAOB
IS KEEPING FAR WRN LK SUP DRY.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS THRU TNGT WL BE FOCUSED ON PCPN COVERAGE AND
AMOUNTS ASSOCIATED WITH CLOSED LO THAT IS FCST TO MOVE TO NEAR
CHICAGO BY 12Z WED.
TODAY...CLOSED LO IS FCST TO DRIFT ONLY SLOWLY TO THE E INTO
NCENTRAL IL BY 00Z WED...WITH DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC MAINTAINED OVER
ALL OF UPR MI EXCEPT FOR THE FAR W...WHERE MODELS INDICATE MORE
AGGRESSIVE LO-MID LVL DRYING WL RESULT IN LARGER SCALE QVECTOR DVGC
BY THE AFTN. AT THE SAME TIME...THE UPR JET STREAK OVER NW ONTARIO
IS FCST TO DRIFT TO THE NE AND OVER JAMES BAY TOWARD 00Z. WHILE THIS
SHIFT WL RESULT IN DIMINISHING UPR DVGC...MOVEMENT OF JET STREAK ON
THE ERN FLANK OF THE CLOSED LO INTO LOWER MI WL LIKELY MAINTAIN SOME
GREATER UPR DVGC OVER THE E HALF OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY LATER IN
THE DAY. AXIS OF SHARPEST H85-7 FGEN/SFC-7 MSTR CNVGC IS ALSO FCST
TO SHIFT TO THE NE THIS MRNG AND GIVE WAY TO SOME H85-7 DRYING. THE
RESULT OF THESE SHIFTS IN DYNAMIC SUPPORT...ALONG WITH SOME DRYING
MOVING IN FM THE S THIS MRNG AND FROM THE W THRU THE DAY SHOULD BE A
DIMINISHING TREND IN THE RA COVERAGE/AMOUNTS. BUT PERSISTENCE OF
DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC OVER ALL BUT THE FAR W AND COVERAGE OF PCPN
UNDER THE COMMA HEAD FEATURE WELL UPSTREAM THRU WI AND INTO SE MN
EARLY THIS MRNG SHOULD MAINTAIN AT LEAST SCT-NMRS SHOWERS OVER THE E
HALF. CONSIDERING THE WELL DEFINED COMMA CLD AND FCST LINGERING DEEP
LYR QVECTOR CNVGC AS WELL AS THE SLOWLY FCST VEERING H85 WINDS...
SUSPECT THE MODELS MAY BE A BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE ON THE MID LVL
DRYING...AT LEAST OVER THE CENTRAL AND E. SO TENDED TO SLOW THE
DRYING TREND A BIT FM THE W. BUT THERE STILL COULD BE SOME AFTN
SUNSHINE OVER THE W...WHICH WL BOOST TEMPS A FEW DEGREES. THERE IS
LIKELY TO BE A RESURGENCE IN THE POPS ESPECIALLY OVER THE SCENTRAL
AND E LATER IN THE DAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF MORE UPR DVGC IN THE LEFT
EXIT REGION IN THE UPR JET MOVING INTO LOWER MI AS WELL AS ANOTHER
AREA OF SHARPER H85-7 FGEN SHOWN BY SOME OF THE GUIDANCE.
TNGT...BULK OF THE MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE WDSPRD RA
MAY IMPACT THE CENTRAL AND ERN CWA INTO THE EARLY MRNG HRS UNDER
PERSISTENT DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC AND UNDER AREA OF UPR DVGC IN LEFT
EXIT OF JET STREAK SHIFTING SLOWLY TO THE E THRU LOWER MI TO THE NE
OF CLOSED LO FCST TO DRIFT SLOWLY ENE TOWARD SRN LK MI. THE PCPN
LOOKS TO BE A BIT HEAVIER IN THE EVNG OVER THE SCENTRAL CWA WHERE
AXIS OF SHARPER H85-7 FGEN IS FCST TO ACCOMPANY THIS HIER LVL
SUPPORT. OTRW...INCRSG NNE WINDS TDAY THRU TNGT WL CAUSE WAVE HGTS
TO BUILD SUFFICIENTLY TO PERHAPS CAUSE SOME MINOR BEACH EROSION
ALONG THE SHORES OF MQT AND ALGER COUNTIES.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014
THE FORECAST FOR WED-WED NIGHT IS COMPLICATED BY SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER IL/IN.
ADDITIONALLY...DETERMINING WHERE AND HOW MUCH PRECIP IS COMPLICATED
BY A SHARP MOISTURE CUTOFF TO VERY DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A RIDGE
AXIS JUST NW OF THE CWA. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP FAR NWRN UPPER MI DRY
AS MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS TO BE THE CASE...BUT HAVE MINIMAL
CONFIDENCE IN EXACT PRECIP AMOUNTS AND LOCATIONS OF GREATEST PRECIP.
LACK OF CONFIDENCE CONTINUES THU AND THU NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW
MERGES WITH A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SRN CANADA. MODELS SHOW A CLOSED
LOW DEVELOPING OVER OR NEAR THE CWA FRI AS A RESULT OF THE MERGER.
UNCERTAINTY COMES FROM MODEL TO MODEL DISAGREEMENT AND RUN TO RUN
DISCONTINUITY ON WHERE THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY TRACKS BEFORE/DURING
THE MERGER. THE 12Z/13 ECMWF BRINGS THE REMNANTS OF THE LOW
CURRENTLY OVER IL ACROSS THE CWA...WHILE THE 00Z/14 GFS MOVES THE
REMNANTS WELL E AND THEN N OF THE CWA. THUS...THE ECMWF HAS LIGHT
RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA ON THU AND THU NIGHT...WHILE THE GFS HAS
ALMOST THE ENTIRE CWA DRY. THE GFS ALSO HAS BACKING FROM THE 00Z/14
NAM AND 12Z/13 GLOBAL GEM. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD CHANCES OF PRECIP
OVER THE ERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA AND SLIGHT CHANCES ELSEWHERE.
GIVEN CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE BEING MUCH DRIER THAN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...DECIDED TO CUT POPS BACK SOME ON THU.
IT DOES LOOK LIKE A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THU NIGHT OR EARLY
FRI...WITH A REINFORCING COLD FRONT LATE FRI OR FRI NIGHT. AT THIS
POINT...CONFIDENCE ACTUALLY INCREASES AS WNW-NW LOW LEVEL FLOW AND
GREATER LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW
WILL LEAD TO LAKE EFFECT PRECIP FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT.
FOR SUN AND MON...MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH WILL MOVE
FAR ENOUGH E TO LIMIT PRECIP CHANCES. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL WITH CONTINUED N-NW FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 739 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014
AS THE DYNAMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP LO PRES TO THE S SLOWLY
WEAKENS TODAY AND DRIER AIR IS SLOWLY ADVECTED INTO THE UPR LKS...
EXPECT GRDLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES. THIS DRYING WL
BE MOST EMPHATIC OVER THE W...WHERE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO IMPROVE
TO VFR AT IWD/CMX IN THE AFTN AND CONTINUE THRU TNGT. SINCE SAW WL
BE CLOSER TO DEEPER MSTR AND A GUSTY N WIND WL UPSLOPE...THE
IMPROVEMENT AT THIS LOCATION WL BE MUCH SLOWER. BUT EVEN HERE...ENUF
DRY AIR MAY ARRIVE TO RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS FOR A TIME THIS EVNG
BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF ANOTHER DISTURBANCE BRINGS A BETTER CHC OF
MORE SHRA AND LO CLDS/MVFR CIGS LATER TNGT. GUSTY WINDS WL ALSO
PERSIST AT SAW THRU TNGT.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 428 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014
EXPECT INCREASING NNE WINDS UP TO 30 KTS OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAKE
INTO TONIGHT UNDER TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT TO THE N OF DEEP LO PRES
MOVING TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THERE
COULD BE SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS...ESPECIALLY AT THE HIER PLATFORMS.
AS THE LO TO THE S SLOWLY WEAKENS LATER TONIGHT/WED AND A HI PRES
RIDGE DRIFTS OVER THE UPPER LAKES LATER ON WED...EXPECT WINDS TO
STEADILY DIMINISH UNDER 15 KTS ON WED NIGHT. RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS
WILL THEN PERSIST INTO FRI BEFORE A LO PRES IF FORECAST TO DEVELOP
AND DEEPEN NEAR JAMES BAY. A SHARPENING PRES GRADIENT AROUND THIS
FEATURE WILL BRING INCREASING NW WINDS...WHICH COULD REACH GALE
FORCE ON SAT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
429 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 428 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW DEEP UPR TROF OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS...WITH CLOSED LO MOVING SLOWLY ENEWD THRU SE IOWA.
WELL DEFINED AREA OF COLDER CLD TOPS IN THE COMMA HEAD OF THE CLOUD
LEAF ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS PRESENT OVER WI AND UPR MI.
COMBINATION OF DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC...VIGOROUS UPR DVGC IN RRQ OF
H3 JET STREAK IN NW ONTARIO AND IN EXIT REGION OF ANOTHER JET STREAK
MOVING N THRU THE MS RIVER VALLEY ARND THE CLOSED LO AND VERY MOIST
AIR WITH 00Z PWAT AS HI AS 1.30 INCH AT GRB /ABOUT 225 PCT OF
NORMAL/ IS RESULTING IN WDSPRD RA OVER THE CWA. THE RA IS HEAVIEST
OVER THE ERN CWA WHERE THE H85 ISOTHERMS ARE MOST CLOSELY PACKED IN
PRESENCE OF SHARP H85-7 FGEN AND SFC-H7 MSTR CNVGC IS MOST
PRONOUNCED NEAR THIS FRONTAL ZN. RADARS TO THE S INDICATE A HINT OF
A DRY SLOT IS MOVING N THRU ERN WI...WITH PCPN THERE TAKING ON A
MORE SHOWERY LOOK. MUCH DRIER MID LVL AIR SHOWN ON THE 00Z INL RAOB
IS KEEPING FAR WRN LK SUP DRY.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS THRU TNGT WL BE FOCUSED ON PCPN COVERAGE AND
AMOUNTS ASSOCIATED WITH CLOSED LO THAT IS FCST TO MOVE TO NEAR
CHICAGO BY 12Z WED.
TODAY...CLOSED LO IS FCST TO DRIFT ONLY SLOWLY TO THE E INTO
NCENTRAL IL BY 00Z WED...WITH DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC MAINTAINED OVER
ALL OF UPR MI EXCEPT FOR THE FAR W...WHERE MODELS INDICATE MORE
AGGRESSIVE LO-MID LVL DRYING WL RESULT IN LARGER SCALE QVECTOR DVGC
BY THE AFTN. AT THE SAME TIME...THE UPR JET STREAK OVER NW ONTARIO
IS FCST TO DRIFT TO THE NE AND OVER JAMES BAY TOWARD 00Z. WHILE THIS
SHIFT WL RESULT IN DIMINISHING UPR DVGC...MOVEMENT OF JET STREAK ON
THE ERN FLANK OF THE CLOSED LO INTO LOWER MI WL LIKELY MAINTAIN SOME
GREATER UPR DVGC OVER THE E HALF OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY LATER IN
THE DAY. AXIS OF SHARPEST H85-7 FGEN/SFC-7 MSTR CNVGC IS ALSO FCST
TO SHIFT TO THE NE THIS MRNG AND GIVE WAY TO SOME H85-7 DRYING. THE
RESULT OF THESE SHIFTS IN DYNAMIC SUPPORT...ALONG WITH SOME DRYING
MOVING IN FM THE S THIS MRNG AND FROM THE W THRU THE DAY SHOULD BE A
DIMINISHING TREND IN THE RA COVERAGE/AMOUNTS. BUT PERSISTENCE OF
DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC OVER ALL BUT THE FAR W AND COVERAGE OF PCPN
UNDER THE COMMA HEAD FEATURE WELL UPSTREAM THRU WI AND INTO SE MN
EARLY THIS MRNG SHOULD MAINTAIN AT LEAST SCT-NMRS SHOWERS OVER THE E
HALF. CONSIDERING THE WELL DEFINED COMMA CLD AND FCST LINGERING DEEP
LYR QVECTOR CNVGC AS WELL AS THE SLOWLY FCST VEERING H85 WINDS...
SUSPECT THE MODELS MAY BE A BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE ON THE MID LVL
DRYING...AT LEAST OVER THE CENTRAL AND E. SO TENDED TO SLOW THE
DRYING TREND A BIT FM THE W. BUT THERE STILL COULD BE SOME AFTN
SUNSHINE OVER THE W...WHICH WL BOOST TEMPS A FEW DEGREES. THERE IS
LIKELY TO BE A RESURGENCE IN THE POPS ESPECIALLY OVER THE SCENTRAL
AND E LATER IN THE DAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF MORE UPR DVGC IN THE LEFT
EXIT REGION IN THE UPR JET MOVING INTO LOWER MI AS WELL AS ANOTHER
AREA OF SHARPER H85-7 FGEN SHOWN BY SOME OF THE GUIDANCE.
TNGT...BULK OF THE MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE WDSPRD RA
MAY IMPACT THE CENTRAL AND ERN CWA INTO THE EARLY MRNG HRS UNDER
PERSISTENT DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC AND UNDER AREA OF UPR DVGC IN LEFT
EXIT OF JET STREAK SHIFTING SLOWLY TO THE E THRU LOWER MI TO THE NE
OF CLOSED LO FCST TO DRIFT SLOWLY ENE TOWARD SRN LK MI. THE PCPN
LOOKS TO BE A BIT HEAVIER IN THE EVNG OVER THE SCENTRAL CWA WHERE
AXIS OF SHARPER H85-7 FGEN IS FCST TO ACCOMPANY THIS HIER LVL
SUPPORT. OTRW...INCRSG NNE WINDS TDAY THRU TNGT WL CAUSE WAVE HGTS
TO BUILD SUFFICIENTLY TO PERHAPS CAUSE SOME MINOR BEACH EROSION
ALONG THE SHORES OF MQT AND ALGER COUNTIES.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014
THE FORECAST FOR WED-WED NIGHT IS COMPLICATED BY SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER IL/IN.
ADDITIONALLY...DETERMINING WHERE AND HOW MUCH PRECIP IS COMPLICATED
BY A SHARP MOISTURE CUTOFF TO VERY DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A RIDGE
AXIS JUST NW OF THE CWA. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP FAR NWRN UPPER MI DRY
AS MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS TO BE THE CASE...BUT HAVE MINIMAL
CONFIDENCE IN EXACT PRECIP AMOUNTS AND LOCATIONS OF GREATEST PRECIP.
LACK OF CONFIDENCE CONTINUES THU AND THU NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW
MERGES WITH A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SRN CANADA. MODELS SHOW A CLOSED
LOW DEVELOPING OVER OR NEAR THE CWA FRI AS A RESULT OF THE MERGER.
UNCERTAINTY COMES FROM MODEL TO MODEL DISAGREEMENT AND RUN TO RUN
DISCONTINUITY ON WHERE THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY TRACKS BEFORE/DURING
THE MERGER. THE 12Z/13 ECMWF BRINGS THE REMNANTS OF THE LOW
CURRENTLY OVER IL ACROSS THE CWA...WHILE THE 00Z/14 GFS MOVES THE
REMNANTS WELL E AND THEN N OF THE CWA. THUS...THE ECMWF HAS LIGHT
RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA ON THU AND THU NIGHT...WHILE THE GFS HAS
ALMOST THE ENTIRE CWA DRY. THE GFS ALSO HAS BACKING FROM THE 00Z/14
NAM AND 12Z/13 GLOBAL GEM. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD CHANCES OF PRECIP
OVER THE ERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA AND SLIGHT CHANCES ELSEWHERE.
GIVEN CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE BEING MUCH DRIER THAN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...DECIDED TO CUT POPS BACK SOME ON THU.
IT DOES LOOK LIKE A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THU NIGHT OR EARLY
FRI...WITH A REINFORCING COLD FRONT LATE FRI OR FRI NIGHT. AT THIS
POINT...CONFIDENCE ACTUALLY INCREASES AS WNW-NW LOW LEVEL FLOW AND
GREATER LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW
WILL LEAD TO LAKE EFFECT PRECIP FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT.
FOR SUN AND MON...MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH WILL MOVE
FAR ENOUGH E TO LIMIT PRECIP CHANCES. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL WITH CONTINUED N-NW FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014
WIDESPREAD RAINS CONTINUE OVER THE REGION WITH CIGS MOSTLY IFR/LIFR
WITH THE NOTABLE EXCEPTION AT KCMX. CIGS THERE HAVE VARIED
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE EVENING FROM IFR TO VFR DUE TO SOME DRIER AIR
INTRUSION ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER AS DEPICTED BY UPSTREAM 0Z
SOUNDINGS. CIGS SHOULD RETURN TO LOW END MVFR AS RAINS CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT. WHILE IFR CIGS A POSSIBILITY AT KCMX...HAVE LEFT
OUT FOR NOW AS SFC WINDS NOT AS FAVORABLE FOR LOW CIGS AS AN
EASTERLY FLOW. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AS THE RAINS END FROM WEST TO
EAST TODAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. WITH UPSLOPE
FLOW PERSISTING LONGEST AT KSAW...THAT SITE TO STAY IN IFR/LIFR THE
LONGEST OF THE THREE SITES. KSAW TO SEE GUSTY WINDS UP TO 22 KTS
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO BE A BIT
STRONGER THERE THAN OVER THE WEST. KSAW MAY ALSO SEE RETURN OF
SHOWER ACTIVITY LATE IN THE DAY BUT MOST OF THIS PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE CONCENTRATED FURTHER EAST WHERE BETTER FORCING TO EXIST
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 428 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014
EXPECT INCREASING NNE WINDS UP TO 30 KTS OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAKE
INTO TONIGHT UNDER TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT TO THE N OF DEEP LO PRES
MOVING TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THERE
COULD BE SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS...ESPECIALLY AT THE HIER PLATFORMS.
AS THE LO TO THE S SLOWLY WEAKENS LATER TONIGHT/WED AND A HI PRES
RIDGE DRIFTS OVER THE UPPER LAKES LATER ON WED...EXPECT WINDS TO
STEADILY DIMINISH UNDER 15 KTS ON WED NIGHT. RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS
WILL THEN PERSIST INTO FRI BEFORE A LO PRES IF FORECAST TO DEVELOP
AND DEEPEN NEAR JAMES BAY. A SHARPENING PRES GRADIENT AROUND THIS
FEATURE WILL BRING INCREASING NW WINDS...WHICH COULD REACH GALE
FORCE ON SAT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...RJT
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
418 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 429 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A SHARP TROF ACROSS THE
CNTRL CONUS WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE IN THE BASE OF THE TROF
BECOMING INCREASINGLY SEPARATED FROM THE FLOW IN THE NRN PORTION OF
THE TROF. THE SHARP TROF HAS TAPPED ABUNDANT MOISTURE AS ANALYSIS OF
12Z RAOBS SHOWED PRECIPITABLE WATER UP TO AROUND 1 INCH ACROSS UPPER
MI WHICH IS 175-200PCT OF NORMAL. RESULT HAS BEEN LOW CLOUDS
DOMINATING THIS AFTN. SOME -DZ/-SHRA/SPRINKLES EARLIER TODAY HAVE
ENDED...AND SO FAR THE AFTN HAS BEEN DRY.
TONIGHT INTO TUE...FLOW IN THE UPSTREAM TROF WILL CONTINUE TO
SEPARATE WHICH RESULTS IN THE SRN PORTION DEVELOPING INTO A CLOSED
LOW OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS THE NRN PORTION
SEPARATES...A WELL-DEFINED JET STREAK WILL DEVELOP FROM NRN ONTARIO
INTO QUEBEC TONIGHT...PLACING THE UPPER LAKES UNDER HEALTHY UPPER
DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF JET. DOWN BELOW...A RIBBON OF
STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS DEVELOPS ACROSS THE FCST AREA.
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASING UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES (NEAR
250PCT OF NORMAL) ACROSS THE FAR SE FCST AREA NEAR LAKE MI...STRONG
UPPER DIVERGENCE/FRONTOGENESIS SHOULD RESULT IN A SOLID AREA OF MDT
TO LOCALLY HVY RAINFALL SPREADING NNE ACROSS ROUGHLY THE E HALF OF
THE FCST AREA TONIGHT. BULK OF PCPN FALLS TONIGHT...BUT INCLUDING
LINGERING PCPN TUE...EXPECT PCPN AMOUNTS OF 1 INCH OR MORE FROM
MARQUETTE/DICKINSON COUNTIES EASTWARD WITH TOTALS OF 1.5 TO PERHAPS
2 INCHES TOWARD LAKE MICHIGAN. TYPICAL FOR THESE TYPE OF PCPN EVENTS
WHICH HAVE A STRONG FRONTOGENESIS COMPONENENT...THERE SHOULD BE A
FAIRLY SHARP W EDGE TO THE PCPN AREA. EXAMINATION OF THE NUMEROUS
AVBL MODELS INDICATES THAT THE WRN EDGE OF THE PCPN AREA WILL
PROBABLY BE JUST W OF UPPER MI. SO...WHILE PCPN AMOUNTS WILL TAIL
OFF QUICKLY WESTWARD...LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS WILL BE CARRIED TO
THE WRN EDGE OF UPPER MI.
WITH UPPER JET ACROSS NRN ONTARIO SHIFTING E ALONG WITH THE RIBBON
OF STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS...PCPN WILL DIMINISH FROM W TO
E TUE MORNING AND WILL END OVER THE W. HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER FORCING
REMAINS OVER MUCH OF UPPER MI THRU THE DAY...SO PLAN TO MAINTAIN A
MENTION OF PCPN THRU THE AFTN OVER THE CNTRL AND E...WITH HIGHEST
POPS TOWARD LAKE MI. AN UPPER JET STREAK ON THE E SIDE OF THE MID
LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL BE ALIGNED
FROM INDIANA UP LAKE MI/WRN LWR MI BY LATE IN THE DAY. UPPER
DIVERGENCE IN THE LEFT EXIT OF THIS JET STREAK WILL LIKELY SUPPORT
ANOTHER AREA OF PCPN THAT MAY BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO SRN PORTIONS OF
UPPER MI LATE IN THE DAY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014
THE FORECAST FOR WED-WED NIGHT IS COMPLICATED BY SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER IL/IN.
ADDITIONALLY...DETERMINING WHERE AND HOW MUCH PRECIP IS COMPLICATED
BY A SHARP MOISTURE CUTOFF TO VERY DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A RIDGE
AXIS JUST NW OF THE CWA. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP FAR NWRN UPPER MI DRY
AS MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS TO BE THE CASE...BUT HAVE MINIMAL
CONFIDENCE IN EXACT PRECIP AMOUNTS AND LOCATIONS OF GREATEST PRECIP.
LACK OF CONFIDENCE CONTINUES THU AND THU NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW
MERGES WITH A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SRN CANADA. MODELS SHOW A CLOSED
LOW DEVELOPING OVER OR NEAR THE CWA FRI AS A RESULT OF THE MERGER.
UNCERTAINTY COMES FROM MODEL TO MODEL DISAGREEMENT AND RUN TO RUN
DISCONTINUITY ON WHERE THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY TRACKS BEFORE/DURING
THE MERGER. THE 12Z/13 ECMWF BRINGS THE REMNANTS OF THE LOW
CURRENTLY OVER IL ACROSS THE CWA...WHILE THE 00Z/14 GFS MOVES THE
REMNANTS WELL E AND THEN N OF THE CWA. THUS...THE ECMWF HAS LIGHT
RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA ON THU AND THU NIGHT...WHILE THE GFS HAS
ALMOST THE ENTIRE CWA DRY. THE GFS ALSO HAS BACKING FROM THE 00Z/14
NAM AND 12Z/13 GLOBAL GEM. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD CHANCES OF PRECIP
OVER THE ERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA AND SLIGHT CHANCES ELSEWHERE.
GIVEN CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE BEING MUCH DRIER THAN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...DECIDED TO CUT POPS BACK SOME ON THU.
IT DOES LOOK LIKE A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THU NIGHT OR EARLY
FRI...WITH A REINFORCING COLD FRONT LATE FRI OR FRI NIGHT. AT THIS
POINT...CONFIDENCE ACTUALLY INCREASES AS WNW-NW LOW LEVEL FLOW AND
GREATER LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW
WILL LEAD TO LAKE EFFECT PRECIP FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT.
FOR SUN AND MON...MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH WILL MOVE
FAR ENOUGH E TO LIMIT PRECIP CHANCES. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL WITH CONTINUED N-NW FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014
WIDESPREAD RAINS CONTINUE OVER THE REGION WITH CIGS MOSTLY IFR/LIFR
WITH THE NOTABLE EXCEPTION AT KCMX. CIGS THERE HAVE VARIED
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE EVENING FROM IFR TO VFR DUE TO SOME DRIER AIR
INTRUSION ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER AS DEPICTED BY UPSTREAM 0Z
SOUNDINGS. CIGS SHOULD RETURN TO LOW END MVFR AS RAINS CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT. WHILE IFR CIGS A POSSIBILITY AT KCMX...HAVE LEFT
OUT FOR NOW AS SFC WINDS NOT AS FAVORABLE FOR LOW CIGS AS AN
EASTERLY FLOW. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AS THE RAINS END FROM WEST TO
EAST TODAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. WITH UPSLOPE
FLOW PERSISTING LONGEST AT KSAW...THAT SITE TO STAY IN IFR/LIFR THE
LONGEST OF THE THREE SITES. KSAW TO SEE GUSTY WINDS UP TO 22 KTS
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO BE A BIT
STRONGER THERE THAN OVER THE WEST. KSAW MAY ALSO SEE RETURN OF
SHOWER ACTIVITY LATE IN THE DAY BUT MOST OF THIS PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE CONCENTRATED FURTHER EAST WHERE BETTER FORCING TO EXIST
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 429 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2014
WEAK PRES GRADIENT AND LIGHT WINDS MOSTLY UNDER 10KT WILL BE THE
RULE INITIALLY TONIGHT. THEN...AS LOW PRESSURE OVER SW MISSOURI
SLOWLY LIFTS NE...N TO NE WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE.
EXPECT N TO NE WINDS UP TO 20KT ON WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND UP TO 25KT
ON ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THE LOW WILL THEN WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS NE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WED/THU...ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH.
WINDS SHOULD BE UNDER 10KT BY THU. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKING ACROSS SRN CANADA THU WILL THEN MERGE WITH THE REMNANT
GREAT LAKES LOW ON FRI IN THE VICINITY OF JAMES BAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN W TO NW WINDS INCREASING INTO THE 15-25KT RANGE ON FRI AND
CONTINUING INTO SAT AS THE LOW MOVES LITTLE.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...RJT
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
123 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 429 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A SHARP TROF ACROSS THE
CNTRL CONUS WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE IN THE BASE OF THE TROF
BECOMING INCREASINGLY SEPARATED FROM THE FLOW IN THE NRN PORTION OF
THE TROF. THE SHARP TROF HAS TAPPED ABUNDANT MOISTURE AS ANALYSIS OF
12Z RAOBS SHOWED PRECIPITABLE WATER UP TO AROUND 1 INCH ACROSS UPPER
MI WHICH IS 175-200PCT OF NORMAL. RESULT HAS BEEN LOW CLOUDS
DOMINATING THIS AFTN. SOME -DZ/-SHRA/SPRINKLES EARLIER TODAY HAVE
ENDED...AND SO FAR THE AFTN HAS BEEN DRY.
TONIGHT INTO TUE...FLOW IN THE UPSTREAM TROF WILL CONTINUE TO
SEPARATE WHICH RESULTS IN THE SRN PORTION DEVELOPING INTO A CLOSED
LOW OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS THE NRN PORTION
SEPARATES...A WELL-DEFINED JET STREAK WILL DEVELOP FROM NRN ONTARIO
INTO QUEBEC TONIGHT...PLACING THE UPPER LAKES UNDER HEALTHY UPPER
DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF JET. DOWN BELOW...A RIBBON OF
STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS DEVELOPS ACROSS THE FCST AREA.
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASING UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES (NEAR
250PCT OF NORMAL) ACROSS THE FAR SE FCST AREA NEAR LAKE MI...STRONG
UPPER DIVERGENCE/FRONTOGENESIS SHOULD RESULT IN A SOLID AREA OF MDT
TO LOCALLY HVY RAINFALL SPREADING NNE ACROSS ROUGHLY THE E HALF OF
THE FCST AREA TONIGHT. BULK OF PCPN FALLS TONIGHT...BUT INCLUDING
LINGERING PCPN TUE...EXPECT PCPN AMOUNTS OF 1 INCH OR MORE FROM
MARQUETTE/DICKINSON COUNTIES EASTWARD WITH TOTALS OF 1.5 TO PERHAPS
2 INCHES TOWARD LAKE MICHIGAN. TYPICAL FOR THESE TYPE OF PCPN EVENTS
WHICH HAVE A STRONG FRONTOGENESIS COMPONENENT...THERE SHOULD BE A
FAIRLY SHARP W EDGE TO THE PCPN AREA. EXAMINATION OF THE NUMEROUS
AVBL MODELS INDICATES THAT THE WRN EDGE OF THE PCPN AREA WILL
PROBABLY BE JUST W OF UPPER MI. SO...WHILE PCPN AMOUNTS WILL TAIL
OFF QUICKLY WESTWARD...LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS WILL BE CARRIED TO
THE WRN EDGE OF UPPER MI.
WITH UPPER JET ACROSS NRN ONTARIO SHIFTING E ALONG WITH THE RIBBON
OF STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS...PCPN WILL DIMINISH FROM W TO
E TUE MORNING AND WILL END OVER THE W. HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER FORCING
REMAINS OVER MUCH OF UPPER MI THRU THE DAY...SO PLAN TO MAINTAIN A
MENTION OF PCPN THRU THE AFTN OVER THE CNTRL AND E...WITH HIGHEST
POPS TOWARD LAKE MI. AN UPPER JET STREAK ON THE E SIDE OF THE MID
LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL BE ALIGNED
FROM INDIANA UP LAKE MI/WRN LWR MI BY LATE IN THE DAY. UPPER
DIVERGENCE IN THE LEFT EXIT OF THIS JET STREAK WILL LIKELY SUPPORT
ANOTHER AREA OF PCPN THAT MAY BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO SRN PORTIONS OF
UPPER MI LATE IN THE DAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2014
TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU...AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW WOBBLES
THROUGH ILLINOIS...THE 12Z GFS AND ESPECIALLY THE 12Z ECMWF HAVE
TRENDED FARTHER TO THE NORTHWEST WITH THE STRONGER 700-300 MB
QVECTOR CONV AHEAD OF A SHRTWV ON THE NRN FLANK OF THE LOW WHILE THE
NAM WAS AN OUTLIER IN KEEPING MOST OF THE CWA DRY. EVEN THOUGH THERE
IS LINGERING UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM...MODELS
CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THAT HIGHER POPS AND QPF ARE WARRANTED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EAST. RAIN CHANCES WILL ALSO LINGER INTO WED NIGHT AND
THU ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF THE CWA AS THE ECMWF/GFS REMAIN FAR
ENOUGH TO THE WEST SO THAT ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE
LOW BRING POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF LIGHT SHOWERS.
THU NIGHT INTO SAT...WITH AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN DEVELOPING...THE WPC
PREFERRED ECMWF SUGGESTS THAT THE WRN RIDGE WILL ALLOW THE NRN
PLAINS TROUGH TO MERGE WITH THE GREAT LAKES LOW AND PERSIST INTO
SATURDAY. AS THE SFC LOW MOVES INTO NE ONTARIO TO NEAR JAMES BAY NW
WINDS AND CAA WILL TAKE OVER BRINGING IN COOLER AIR AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AS DEEPER MOISTURE PREVAILS. ENOUGH COLD AIR
WILL MOVE IN BY FRI NIGHT INTO SAT FOR LAKE ENHANCED RAIN POTENTIAL
FOR LOCATIONS FAVORED BY NW OR NNW FLOW.
SUN-MON...THE GFS/GEFS/ECMWF SUGGEST THAT THE TROUGH WILL SLIDE FAR
ENOUGH EAST TO REDUCE RAIN CHANCES WHILE NNW MID LEVEL LOW LINGERS.
TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014
WIDESPREAD RAINS CONTINUE OVER THE REGION WITH CIGS MOSTLY IFR/LIFR
WITH THE NOTABLE EXCEPTION AT KCMX. CIGS THERE HAVE VARIED
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE EVENING FROM IFR TO VFR DUE TO SOME DRIER AIR
INTRUSION ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER AS DEPICTED BY UPSTREAM 0Z
SOUNDINGS. CIGS SHOULD RETURN TO LOW END MVFR AS RAINS CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT. WHILE IFR CIGS A POSSIBILITY AT KCMX...HAVE LEFT
OUT FOR NOW AS SFC WINDS NOT AS FAVORABLE FOR LOW CIGS AS AN
EASTERLY FLOW. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AS THE RAINS END FROM WEST TO
EAST TODAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. WITH UPSLOPE
FLOW PERSISTING LONGEST AT KSAW...THAT SITE TO STAY IN IFR/LIFR THE
LONGEST OF THE THREE SITES. KSAW TO SEE GUSTY WINDS UP TO 22 KTS
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO BE A BIT
STRONGER THERE THAN OVER THE WEST. KSAW MAY ALSO SEE RETURN OF
SHOWER ACTIVITY LATE IN THE DAY BUT MOST OF THIS PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE CONCENTRATED FURTHER EAST WHERE BETTER FORCING TO EXIST
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 429 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2014
WEAK PRES GRADIENT AND LIGHT WINDS MOSTLY UNDER 10KT WILL BE THE
RULE INITIALLY TONIGHT. THEN...AS LOW PRESSURE OVER SW MISSOURI
SLOWLY LIFTS NE...N TO NE WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE.
EXPECT N TO NE WINDS UP TO 20KT ON WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND UP TO 25KT
ON ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THE LOW WILL THEN WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS NE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WED/THU...ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH.
WINDS SHOULD BE UNDER 10KT BY THU. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKING ACROSS SRN CANADA THU WILL THEN MERGE WITH THE REMNANT
GREAT LAKES LOW ON FRI IN THE VICINITY OF JAMES BAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN W TO NW WINDS INCREASING INTO THE 15-25KT RANGE ON FRI AND
CONTINUING INTO SAT AS THE LOW MOVES LITTLE.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...RJT
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1207 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2014
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE OVER MISSOURI MOVES SLOWLY NORTHEAST THEN STALLS
OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL ARE ALSO POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN STALLED OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
BUT IT WILL REMAIN MILD THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S. A COOL DOWN IS ANTICIPATED FOR SATURDAY.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 605 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2014
I HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY LOWERED THE CHANCE OF RAIN TONIGHT ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THROUGH MIDNIGHT. I ALSO EXPUNGED
THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT FROM THE FORECAST TONIGHT. TO KEEP ALL OF
THE FORECAST DETAILS IN SYNC I ALSO LOWERED THE QPF SIGNIFICANTLY
TONIGHT AND FOR THAT MATTER TUESDAY. THE UPDATED FORECAST DOES
MATCH NICELY WITH THE LATEST FORECASTS FROM NEAR BY OFFICES
THROUGH TUESDAY.
MY MOTIVATION FOR DOING ALL THIS UPDATING IS THERE IS A 65 KNOT
LOW LEVEL JET HEADING DUE NORTH TOWARD MKE CURRENTLY. WITH SUCH A
STRONG JET GOING SO FAR WEST OF LOWER MICHIGAN... IT IS KEEPING
THE DECENT MOISTURE FLUX OUT OF THIS AREA. THAT IDEA IS SHOWN
NICELY WITH THE RAP 21Z 1000/850 MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS. THE
BOTTOM LINE IS MOST OF THE RAIN WILL MISS SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN
THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT. WE COULD SEE A FEW STRAY SHOWERS OF
COURSE BUT I DO BELIEVE MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHT TOO.
IT DOES LOOK LIKE A SECOND LOW LEVEL JET IS AIMED AS SOUTH CENTRAL
LOWER MICHIGAN TUESDAY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS... SO WE WILL LIKELY
STILL SEE SOME RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT NOT NEARLY AS MUCH WAS WE
WERE THINKING EARLIER.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2014
THE BULK OF THE STORM TOTAL RAIN FROM THIS EVENT FOR SW LWR MI
APPEARS TO OCCUR ON TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW DRAWS CLOSER AND THE
OCCLUSION IMPACTS THE AREA.
MODEL TREND OVER THE LAST TWO RUNS HAS BEEN TO LIFT THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL TONIGHT WITHIN THE TROWAL FARTHER NORTHWEST WHICH
ESSENTIALLY MEANS IT MISSES MOST OF THE CWFA WITH PERHAPS THE
EXCEPTION OF LUDINGTON.
IN FACT MOST MODEL STORM TOTAL RAINFALL SOLUTIONS ACTUALLY SHOW MUCH
OF SW LWR MI IN A RELATIVE MINIMUM AREA OF QPF IN BETWEEN THE
DEFORMATION ZONE TO THE NORTHWEST AND THE STRONG CONVECTION AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT TO THE SOUTH.
THAT SAID...WE SHOULD STILL SEE WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS NEAR AN INCH WITH
LOCALLY AS MUCH AS TWO INCHES. THIS SHOULD NOT CAUSE TOO MUCH OF
A PROBLEM ALTHOUGH WHERE HEAVY RAIN PERSISTS SOME PONDING OF WATER IS
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WHERE LEAVES CLOG STORM DRAINS.
AS FAR AS THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT... THERE IS PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR AVAILABLE BUT INSTABILITY IS LIMITED WITH GENERALLY 500 J/KG
OR LESS OF MU CAPE AVAILABLE. THE COVERAGE OF STORMS SHOULD BE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TONIGHT AND TUES. THE THING TO WATCH WILL BE
THE 60 KNOT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET WHICH COMES IN TONIGHT. THIS
COULD LEAD TO SOME RATHER GUSTY SOUTH TO NORTH MOVING SHOWERS IN THE
WARM SECTOR.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2014
MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED AS A SLOW MOVING
UPPER LOW JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES MERGES WITH A DIGGING
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH BEFORE IT FINALLY MOVES EAST. CYCLONIC FLOW
AND SOME LAKE CONTRIBUTION OF MOISTURE SUPPORTS KEEPING CHANCE OR
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING FOR EACH PERIOD FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. SHORTWAVE RIDGING ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY SHOULD
FINALLY DRY THINGS OUT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MODERATED BY THE
CONTINUOUS CLOUD COVER UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WHEN
CLEARING WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE 30S IN MOST PLACES.
THE FLOW BECOMES HIGHLY AMPLIFIED EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A DEEP TROUGH
AXIS OVER THE NE CONUS AND A SHARP RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS. THERE
COULD BE SOME SHOWERS ON MONDAY AS A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DIGS SOUTH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...BUT THE MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW A LOT OF DRY AIR AT MID LEVELS...SO WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1208 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014
THE MAIN CHANGE TO THE TAFS WILL BE TO PUSH THE IFR CIGS BACK A
FEW HOURS. LATEST NEPH ANALYSIS SHOWS VFR CIGS EXTENDING SW INTO
ILLINOIS INTERSPERSED WITH SOME MVFR CIGS. THERE IS A BAND OF
HEAVIER SHOWERS MOVING NORTH FROM INDIANA AND IT/S POSSIBLE WE
COULD SEE BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. HOWEVER...THE
MAIN AREA OF IFR...STILL BACK IN MISSOURI... SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL
LATE TONIGHT...CLOSER TO MORNING. THEN GRADUALLY BECOMING MVFR
AFTER 18Z.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2014
WHILE THE WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
COMES INTO THE AREA... THE SFC WINDS WILL HAVE A BIT OF AN OFFSHORE
COMPONENT. THIS WILL KEEP THE WAVE HEIGHTS DOWN NEAR THE COAST BUT
DESPITE THAT THE WIND SPEEDS ALONE MAY BECOME SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO
WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LATER TONIGHT. WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW.
WEB CAMS SHOW THAT FOG IS NOT A MAJOR ISSUE ALONG THE SW LWR MI
COASTLINE AND WITH THE WINDS INCREASING TONIGHT SEE NO NEED FOR A
MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2014
STORM TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO BE LESS THAN PREVIOUS
THINKING. GENERALLY AROUND A HALF INCH TO 2 INCHES IS EXPECTED. MOST
LOCATIONS WILL SEE LESS THAN AN INCH AND A HALF...WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE TOWARD LUDINGTON. THE TREND IN THE 12Z MODELS IS TO
PUSH THE SLOW-MOVING DEFORMATION BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL
TO THE NORTHWEST. MOST OF THE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO FALL AFTER 00Z
TUESDAY.
RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS
COULD RISE SHARPLY ON TUESDAY. CURRENT STREAMFLOW IN THE GRAND AND
KALAMAZOO RIVER BASINS IS RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL. THERE COULD ALSO BE
BRIEF MINOR URBAN FLOODING AND PONDING OF WATER IN LOW-LYING AREAS.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WDM
SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...93
HYDROLOGY...EBW
MARINE...MEADE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
1155 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1154 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014
WE WILL BE ISSUING A DENSE FOG ADVISORY SHORTLY FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTH/NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. VISIBILITIES HAVE DROPPED TO A QUARTER
MILE OR LESS LATE THIS EVENING. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT INCREASING
WINDS AS SEEN ON THE RAP AT 0.5 KM MAY LESSEN THE FOG LATER
TONIGHT...BUT WE CAN ADJUST THE HEADLINE IF THAT DOES OCCUR.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 916 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014
RAIN HAS MOVED FURTHER NORTHWEST INTO WISCONSIN THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT...AND HAVE INCREASED POPS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014
AT 330 PM...A MIXTURE OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE CONTINUED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA. THE RAIN AT THIS POINT WAS CONFINED TO MAINLY THE
ARROWHEAD OF MN...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF RAIN SPREADING INTO NW WI
FROM THE SOUTH. DRIZZLE PREVAILED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AS WELL
AS SOME FOG. THE EXCEPTION WAS IN THE FAR WEST...WHERE THE LOW
CLOUDS HAD STARTED TO CLEAR AND THERE WAS SOME FILTERED SUNSHINE.
TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MID 40S IN THE ARROWHEAD TO THE MID
50S IN PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN WI.
THE BIG FOCUS FOR TONIGHT WILL BE THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE ILLINOIS
AREA BEFORE STALLING OUT AND EVENTUALLY MERGING WITH ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION INTO
MUCH OF NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN
COUNTIES OF OUR WISCONSIN CWA. COULD BE SOME DECENT
RAINFALL...MAINLY OVER PRICE...IRON AND SOUTHEASTERN SAWYER
COUNTIES. THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA WILL SEE A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
DRIZZLE AND RAIN...AND A DECREASE IN OVERALL CLOUDS AS WELL. LOWS
COULD REACH INTO THE MID 30S IN PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL MN. WITH
THE DAMP GROUND FROM THE RAIN AND DRIZZLE TODAY...WE COULD SEE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME ADDITIONAL FOG AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.
TUESDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A MILD DAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. WE COULD SEE HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S FOR
DAYTIME HIGHS ON TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND PROMOTE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. LEANED
ON THE COLDEST TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...AND THE
WARMER GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY. THERE ARE LOW CHANCES OF
SHOWERS OVER THE FAR SE FORECAST AREA DUE TO A STACKED LOW MOVING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO DISAPPEAR LATE THIS WEEK AS A
LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
GRADUALLY MERGES WITH THE GREAT LAKES LOW. THE TWO SYSTEMS SHOULD
MERGE OVER ONTARIO BY EARLY SATURDAY. THURSDAY WILL BE WARM AS
SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW. FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AND CLOUDIER AS THE TWO LOWS
MOVE INTO THE REGION AND MERGE. THERE WILL BE LOW CHANCES OF
SHOWERS...PRIMARILY OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN FORECAST AREA. THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...BUT GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
THE LOWEST LEVELS WILL BE TOO WARM OR THAT THE COLD SATURATED LAYER
ALOFT WILL BE TOO WARM TO SUPPORT MUCH ICE CRYSTAL DEVELOPMENT.
THEREFORE...ONLY FORECASTED RAIN SHOWERS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE NORTHLAND LATE THIS WEEKEND.
THE REGION WILL REMAIN COOL IN NW FLOW SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1154 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED NEAR THE IA/MO/IL COMMON BORDER
LATE THIS EVENING WITH RAIN EXTENDING WELL NORTH INTO NORTHERN
WISCONSIN. CONDITIONS VARIED FROM LIFR IN FOG OVER FAR NORTHERN
MINNESOTA...TO IFR OVER MUCH OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...WITH SOME VFR
IN BETWEEN. THE RAIN WILL SLOWLY DECREASE LATE TONIGHT...WITH MORE
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHLAND IN FOG. LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE COMMON OVER NORTHERN/NORTHEAST MINNESOTA
TONIGHT IN DENSE FOG.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON TUESDAY AND CAUSE THE FOG TO
DISSIPATE IN THE MORNING LEADING TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 43 59 39 58 / 10 0 0 0
INL 32 59 34 64 / 0 0 0 0
BRD 40 61 34 64 / 0 0 0 0
HYR 45 60 40 60 / 80 10 0 10
ASX 44 57 41 57 / 70 0 0 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR MNZ010-011-018-019-
025-026-033>035.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MELDE
SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...MELDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1017 PM EDT WED OCT 15 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS OCCASIONALLY HEAVY AT TIMES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. A FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY BRINGING
AN END TO THE SHOWERS. THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE
PRIMARILY DRY WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
1015 PM UPDATE...
RELATIVE LULL IN THE ACTION CURRENTLY AFTER A STRIPE 1 TO 3 INCH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA...LOCALIZED REPORTS
OF 2.5 TO 4 INCHES. IMPACTS HAVE BEEN ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS
WHICH ARE SUBJECT TO POOR DRAINAGE FROM CONCRETE AND ADDITIONAL
PROBLEM OF FALLEN LEAVES BLOCKING GRATES. SCRANTON AND UTICA IN
PARTICULAR HAD A LOT OF WATER ON ROADS AND SOME TRAPPED CARS.
VERY DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER...ALMOST 4 KM...AND PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES TO AROUND AN INCH-AND-THREE- QUARTERS...ARE VERY ANOMALOUS
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE RESULTING WARM CLOUD PROCESSES IS
LIKELY WHY RADAR HAS STRUGGLED TO ESTIMATE RAINFALL...EARLIER
UNDERESTIMATING VERSUS REPORTS BY UP TO A FACTOR OF 2.
RAIN RIGHT NOW IS ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH LESS BANDING COMPARED TO
EARLIER. HOWEVER...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN PLACE OVERNIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING BECAUSE OF CONTINUED EXPECTED ROUNDS OF
RAINFALL. NEW BAND NOW DEVELOPING AS EXPECTED IN THE DEL-MAR-VA
AREA...AND THIS WILL RIDE LLJ QUICKLY INTO OUR REGION AS PER THE
HI RES MODELS HRRR AND RUC...AND LOOKS LIKE THE NEW OPERATIONAL
00Z NAM THAT IS JUST COMING IN AS WELL. OUTSIDE OF THE URBAN POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS...WE WERE ABLE TO ABSORB THE INITIAL SHOT OF RAIN
RATHER WELL DUE TO DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...NEW
LOCALIZED ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN WILL BE MUCH MORE PRONE TO RUNNING
OFF AND CAUSING ISSUES.
THURSDAY MORNING CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE AS THE SURFACE
OCCLUSION MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY...SYSTEM WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTH INTO EASTERN
CANADA WITH REGION UNDER A FAIRLY DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW. HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL RANGE IN THE 60S.
FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW NOW MOVING INTO THE
NORTHWEST US WILL TRACK INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND CARVE OUT
ANOTHER DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF WITH THIS CURRENT FEATURE AND PUSH A
SFC COLD FRONT THROUGH ON SATURDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC/SLIGHT
CHC POPS DURING THIS PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
S/WV EMBEDDED IN THE NWLY FLOW BEHIND THE PARTING UPR LOW WILL
PASS THROUGH THE RGN IN THE SAT NGT/SUNDAY TIME FRAME. ANOTHER
S/WV APRCHS FOR MON NGT/TUE AND PASSES TO OUR SOUTH. CARRIED LOW
CHC POPS FOR BOTH OF THESE SYSTEMS. IN BETWEEN THEM...GNRLY FAIR
WX. HPC GUIDANCE LOOKED GREAT AND WAS USED FOR THE MED RNG. TEMPS
GNRLY BLO NORMAL WITH MAXES U40S TO M50S...MINS 30-35.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
00Z UPDATE...
SURGE OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE UP THE EASTERN SIDE OF A LARGE UPPER
LOW...HAS RESULTED IN WAVES OF RAIN WHICH HAVE BEEN AND WILL
CONTINUE TO BE HEAVY AT TIMES WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS...ESPECIALLY
KAVP-KBGM-KRME. EVEN WHERE RAIN DOES NOT FALL AS HARD
THOUGH...EXPECTING DEVELOPMENT OF IFR CIGS AND/OR FOG OVERNIGHT.
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WITHIN LOWEST 2 KFT AGL WILL BREACH LLWS
CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING AT KAVP...BUT PROBABLY NOT QUITE
AT THE OTHER TERMINALS /THOUGH THIS POTENTIAL WILL BE MONITORED/.
RAIN WILL TAPER OFF THU MORNING...CLOUDS MAY BE A LITTLE SLOWER TO
ERODE BUT EVENTUAL VFR ANTICIPATED LATE MORNING-EARLY AFTERNOON AS
DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION.
OUTLOOK...
THU NGT...MVFR IN SCT -SHRA.
FRI/FRI NGT...VFR.
SAT/SAT NGT...MVFR WITH -SHRA PSBL.
SUN...IMPRVG TO VFR.
MON...VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR PAZ038>040-043-
044-047-048-072.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR NYZ009-036-037-
045-046-055>057-062.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MDP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1147 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014
THE HIGH CLOUDS HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE EASTERN-SOUTHEASTERN FCST
AREA LEAVING A CLEAR SKY OVER THE FORECAST AREA. WITH A LIGHT WIND
TEMPS DROPPING BLO MOST GUIDANCE LEVELS SO LOWERED LOWS SOME IN
MOST AREAS ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES. HRRR ONLY SHOWS FOG POTENTIAL IN THE
FAR EASTERN FCST AREA WASKISH-BEMIDJI-PARK RAPIDS AREA BUT WITH
LIGHT WIND AND TEMPS COOLING TO THE DEW PTS MOST AREAS KEPT THE
PATCHY CWA WORDING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014
THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY. MODELS
ARE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT...AND NO PREFERENCE THIS AFTERNOON.
FOR TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION AND IT
SHOULD BE CLEAR. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG IN ALL
AREAS AFTER 5Z...GIVEN SOME RAIN IN THE PAST 24HR AND DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOW/MID 40S THIS AFTERNOON. WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE THREAT
FOR DENSE FOG AS WELL GIVEN THE FAIRLY HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER
DEWPOINTS/MOISTURE.
ON TUESDAY...IT WILL BE A CHAMBER OF COMMERCE DAY WITH FAIRLY
LIGHT WINDS...NEARLY FULL SUNSHINE AND TEMPS INTO THE LOW/MID 60S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014
FOR WED...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AND IT SHOULD BE
BREEZY/WINDY BY AFTERNOON FROM THE VALLEY WEST. TEMPS WILL ONCE
AGAIN WARM INTO THE LOW/MID 60S...PERHAPS NEAR 70 IN THE WEST WITH
VERY WARM AIR ALOFT. IT WILL REMAIN DRY WITH NEARLY FULL SUNSHINE
ONCE AGAIN.
ON THURSDAY...SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS NEAR WINNIPEG AND A COOL
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SWITCHING WINDS TO THE WEST BY AFTERNOON.
EVEN WITH THE COOLER AIR ALOFT MOVING IN...TEMPS WILL WARM INTO
THE 60S WITH FAVORABLE WARM WESTERLY WINDS. FOR NOT WILL KEEP IT
DRY ALTHOUGH THERE SHOULD BE SOME MORE CLOUDS AROUND.
FOR THU NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WILL START OFF WITH A BROAD 500MB LOW
NEAR THE FA THAT WILL TRACK SLOWLY EASTWARD THRU FRI NIGHT. THE 12Z
OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE IN REGARD TO THE
CORRESPONDING SFC LOW PLACEMENT SO THE PCPN FIELDS DO NOT SHOW MUCH
AGREEMENT EITHER. THEREFORE HAVE KEPT MOST OF THE FA IN A CHANCE FOR
SOME LIGHT PCPN THU NIGHT THRU FRIDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH THE BETTER
CHANCES MAY BE ACROSS NORTHWEST MN. RIDGING SLOWLY RETURNS BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPS FOR LATE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014
CLEAR SKY OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW CIRRUS MOVING IN
LATER TUESDAY. LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING TURNING
LIGHT SOUTHERLY 5-10 KTS WED AFTN IN ERN ND/WRN MN. MAIN CHALLENGE
IS FOG POTENTIAL AND LATEST SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS BEST
POTENTIAL REMAINS IN THE WASKISH-BEMIDJI-PARK RAPIDS AREAS. BUT AS
OBSERVED FROM BEMIDJI OBS IT IS A GROUND FOG SITUATION SO VSBYS
VARIABLE. KEPT TEMPO FOR SOME 2SM IN FOG AT GFK/FAR/TVF AS WELL AS
PREV FCST.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...GODON/DK
AVIATION...RIDDLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
610 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER MISSOURI WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST ACROSS LAKE
ERIE BY THURSDAY MORNING AND ON TO JAMES BAY BY FRIDAY NIGHT PULLING
A SERIES OF COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
WILL STAY OVER THE EASTERN LAKES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A FEW SHRA HAVE SPREAD OUT FURTHER EAST THAN THE MODELS HAD
PROJECTED EARLIER SO HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
THE MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN SLOWLY MOVING A BAND OF SHRA/TSRA
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA TODAY INTO WED MORNING. SOME SHEAR PRESENT
BUT INSTABILITY NOT OVER GREAT. SPC KEEPING SVR THREAT SOUTH OF THE
AREA. MAY SEE SOME STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS SINCE WINDS WILL
ALREADY BE GUSTING AROUND 30 TO 40 MPH ANYWAY...BUT CURRENTLY DON`T
EXPECT SIGNIFICANT SEVERE STORMS.
THE OTHER THREAT COULD BE FROM FLOODING IF SOME OF THE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN LINGERS OVER ANY PARTICULAR AREA. IN GENERAL...LOOKING FOR .75
TO 1.5 INCHES OF RAINFALL AS THE SLOW MOVING BAND MAKES ITS WAY
ACROSS THE AREA. 3 HR FLOOD GUIDANCE RANGING BETWEEN 2 AND 3 INCHES
SO IT CURRENTLY APPEARS THAT WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE AN INCH AND
A HALF OR LESS OF RAINFALL WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOODING SO WON`T
PUT UP A FLOOD WATCH.
TODAY WILL BE THE LAST WARM DAY FOR A WHILE...MAYBE FOR THE REST OF
THE SEASON. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE 70S...RANGING FROM MOSTLY LOWER
70S IN THE WEST WHERE THE RAIN ARRIVES THIS MORNING TO THE MID TO
UPPER 70S IN THE EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE LAST OF THE SLOW MOVING BAND OF RAIN SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE CWA
DURING THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF DAYLIGHT WED MORNING. A DRIER SLOT OF
MID LEVEL AIR PUSHES ACROSS THE CWA IN THE WAKE OF THE RAIN BAND SO
EXPECT A BREAK IN THE RAINFALL FOR A WHILE. LATER IN THE DAY...SOME
DAYTIME WARMING UNDER THE UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL LIKELY
TRIGGER SOME CONVECTIVE SHRA AS THE LOWER LEVELS STILL STAY FAIRLY
MOIST. ISOLATED THUNDER MAY OCCUR BUT MOSTLY LOOKING FOR JUST SHRA
DUE TO WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER.
THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW WILL TAKE UNTIL LATE THU NIGHT TO LIFT NE
OF THE CWA SO THE AIRMASS WILL STAY UNSTABLE WITH CLOUDS AND GOOD
CHANCES FOR SHRA HANGING AROUND INTO THU NIGHT. DRIER AIR SHOULD
START PUSHING NE ACROSS THE AREA THU NIGHT INTO FRI CAUSING THE
THREAT FOR SHRA TO SHIFT INTO MAINLY THE NE BY FRI. A REINFORCING
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SE ACROSS THE AREA FRI EVENING.
MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THIS FRONT BUT WITH ADDED HELP FROM LAKE
ERIE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME SHRA IN THE NE.
TEMPS WED THRU FRI SHOULD RUN CLOSE TO NORMAL SINCE THE COLDER AIR
DOES NOT START TO ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER THE FRONT PASSES FRI NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MODELS HAVE THE SAME IDEA BUT TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE UPPER
TROF AND SURFACE FEATURES FOR THE PERIOD.
SOME LAKE INDUCED SHOWERS MAINLY OVER EXTREME NE OH AND NW PA
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO INDICATE A LOT MORE QPF
THEN WOULD BE EXPECTED. CONTINUED THE TREND TO KEEP MOST OF THE RAIN
SHOWERS IN THE SNOW BELT AREA. THE LAKE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE
DIFFERENCE WILL BE AROUND 15 TO 16C.
ON SUNDAY THE ECMWF HAS HIGH PRESSURE OVER MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES
WHILE THE GFS HAS THE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND A TROF
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. CONTINUED CHANCE POPS IN THE SNOW BELT
AREA SUNDAY.
BY MONDAY THE ECMWF MOVES THE HIGH TO THE EAST AND A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES WHILE THE GFS HAS A RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. KEPT MONDAY DRY AT THIS TIME UNTIL THE TRENDS ARE CLEARER.
HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
IN THE MEANTIME THE AREA OF RAIN OVER INDIANA WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EAST AS THE 700 MB FLOW IS SOUTHERLY. THE HRRR MODELS TIMING IS
GOOD IN BRINGING THE SHOWERS INTO TOL AND FDY AROUND 11Z AND THEN
IT TRIES TO SHIFT SOME SHOWERS EASTWARD A LITTLE TOO FAST. WENT
WITH A SLOWER TIMING OF THE SHOWERS GETTING TO MFD AROUND 15Z AND
CLE 18Z AND ERI 23Z. IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS MVFR CONDITIONS BUT
THE PREDOMINANT MAY BE VFR...NOT TOTALLY CONFIDENT IN THAT.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED IN THE SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON. CONFIDENT IN THAT IS LOW...SO NO MENTION OF THUNDER IN
THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. VFR CONDITIONS AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE DURING THE OVERNIGHT. MENTIONED
SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT A FEW SPOTS WHERE THE WINDS ARE LIGHT
AS THE WINDS ALOFT ARE BECOMING STRONG QUICKLY. SOME QUESTION HOW
STRONG THE WINDS WILL GET. ONCE THE SHOWERS START THE WINDS WILL
NOT BE AS STRONG. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE AROUND NOON MAINLY
OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND A PORTION OF NE OHIO INCLUDING MFD AND CLE
AND POSSIBLY CAK. THE 850 MB WINDS GET TO AROUND 70 KTS AT NOON
WHICH IS STRONG EVEN IN WARM ADVECTION.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
VERY UNSETTLED ON THE LAKE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. A LOW PRESSURE AREA
MOVING THROUGH THE THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THE NEXT FEW DAYS WAS
CAUSING A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND INCREASING STRONG WINDS
JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE FOR TODAY. THE LAKE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE
DIFFERENCE WILL BE NIL SO SOME MIXING WILL OCCUR. BECAUSE OF THAT
WILL ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS 20 TO
25 KNOTS DECREASING BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING. THE WAVES IN THE
NEARSHORE WILL NOT BE THAT HIGH. SOME QUESTION TO THE TIMING WHETHER
THE WINDS WILL DECREASE BEFORE EVENING OVER THE WESTERN LAKE. AT
THIS TIME WITH THE UNCERTAINTY WILL TO WITH AN EXPIRATION TIME OF 9
PM ON THE WEST END AND 10 PM ON THE EAST.
THE WINDS ON WEDNESDAY WILL NOT BE TOO STRONG AS THE LOW WEAKENS.
ON THURSDAY A WEAK FRONT OR TROF MOVES THROUGH AND THAT COULD CAUSE
WINDS AND WAVES NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON THE EAST END
OF THE LAKE.
ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE FRIDAY AND THAT WILL
DEFINITELY PROMPT THE NEED FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS WINDS COULD
GET UP TO 30 KNOTS. THAT THREAT WILL LAST INTO SUNDAY ON THE ENTIRE
LAKE AND POSSIBLY INTO EARLY MONDAY ON THE EAST END. THE THREAT FOR
SUSTAINED WINDS REACHING GALE FORCE FRIDAY NIGHT IS POSSIBLE AS THE
COLD ADVECTION IS SIGNIFICANT AND THE WINDS ALOFT ARE NEAR 35
KNOTS...THIS THREAT WILL BE MONITORED.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LEZ146>149.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LEZ142>145.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...ADAMS
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
329 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER MISSOURI WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST ACROSS LAKE
ERIE BY THURSDAY MORNING AND ON TO JAMES BAY BY FRIDAY NIGHT PULLING
A SERIES OF COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
WILL STAY OVER THE EASTERN LAKES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THE MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN SLOWLY MOVING A BAND OF SHRA/TSRA
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA TODAY INTO WED MORNING. SOME SHEAR PRESENT
BUT INSTABILITY NOT OVER GREAT. SPC KEEPING SVR THREAT SOUTH OF THE
AREA. MAY SEE SOME STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS SINCE WINDS WILL
ALREADY BE GUSTING AROUND 30 TO 35 MPH ANYWAY...BUT CURRENTLY DON`T
EXPECT SIGNIFICANT SEVERE STORMS.
THE OTHER THREAT COULD BE FROM FLOODING IF SOME OF THE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN LINGERS OVER ANY PARTICULAR AREA. IN GENERAL...LOOKING FOR .75
TO 1.5 INCHES OF RAINFALL AS THE SLOW MOVING BAND MAKES ITS WAY
ACROSS THE AREA. 3 HR FLOOD GUIDANCE RANGING BETWEEN 2 AND 3 INCHES
SO IT CURRENTLY APPEARS THAT WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE AN INCH AND
A HALF OR LESS OF RAINFALL WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOODING SO WON`T
PUT UP A FLOOD WATCH.
TODAY WILL BE THE LAST WARM DAY FOR A WHILE...MAYBE FOR THE REST OF
THE SEASON. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE 70S...RANGING FROM MOSTLY LOWER
70S IN THE WEST WHERE THE RAIN ARRIVES THIS MORNING TO THE MID TO
UPPER 70S IN THE EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE LAST OF THE SLOW MOVING BAND OF RAIN SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE CWA
DURING THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF DAYLIGHT WED MORNING. A DRIER SLOT OF
MID LEVEL AIR PUSHES ACROSS THE CWA IN THE WAKE OF THE RAIN BAND SO
EXPECT A BREAK IN THE RAINFALL FOR A WHILE. LATER IN THE DAY...SOME
DAYTIME WARMING UNDER THE UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL LIKELY
TRIGGER SOME CONVECTIVE SHRA AS THE LOWER LEVELS STILL STAY FAIRLY
MOIST. ISOLATED THUNDER MAY OCCUR BUT MOSTLY LOOKING FOR JUST SHRA
DUE TO WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER.
THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW WILL TAKE UNTIL LATE THU NIGHT TO LIFT NE
OF THE CWA SO THE AIRMASS WILL STAY UNSTABLE WITH CLOUDS AND GOOD
CHANCES FOR SHRA HANGING AROUND INTO THU NIGHT. DRIER AIR SHOULD
START PUSHING NE ACROSS THE AREA THU NIGHT INTO FRI CAUSING THE
THREAT FOR SHRA TO SHIFT INTO MAINLY THE NE BY FRI. A REINFORCING
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SE ACROSS THE AREA FRI EVENING.
MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THIS FRONT BUT WITH ADDED HELP FROM LAKE
ERIE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME SHRA IN THE NE.
TEMPS WED THRU FRI SHOULD RUN CLOSE TO NORMAL SINCE THE COLDER AIR
DOES NOT START TO ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER THE FRONT PASSES FRI NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MODELS HAVE THE SAME IDEA BUT TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE UPPER
TROF AND SURFACE FEATURES FOR THE PERIOD.
SOME LAKE INDUCED SHOWERS MAINLY OVER EXTREME NE OH AND NW PA
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO INDICATE A LOT MORE QPF
THEN WOULD BE EXPECTED. CONTINUED THE TREND TO KEEP MOST OF THE RAIN
SHOWERS IN THE SNOW BELT AREA. THE LAKE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE
DIFFERENCE WILL BE AROUND 15 TO 16C.
ON SUNDAY THE ECMWF HAS HIGH PRESSURE OVER MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES
WHILE THE GFS HAS THE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND A TROF
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. CONTINUED CHANCE POPS IN THE SNOW BELT
AREA SUNDAY.
BY MONDAY THE ECMWF MOVES THE HIGH TO THE EAST AND A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES WHILE THE GFS HAS A RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. KEPT MONDAY DRY AT THIS TIME UNTIL THE TRENDS ARE CLEARER.
HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
IN THE MEANTIME THE AREA OF RAIN OVER INDIANA WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EAST AS THE 700 MB FLOW IS SOUTHERLY. THE HRRR MODELS TIMING IS
GOOD IN BRINGING THE SHOWERS INTO TOL AND FDY AROUND 11Z AND THEN
IT TRIES TO SHIFT SOME SHOWERS EASTWARD A LITTLE TOO FAST. WENT
WITH A SLOWER TIMING OF THE SHOWERS GETTING TO MFD AROUND 15Z AND
CLE 18Z AND ERI 23Z. IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS MVFR CONDITIONS BUT
THE PREDOMINANT MAY BE VFR...NOT TOTALLY CONFIDENT IN THAT.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED IN THE SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON. CONFIDENT IN THAT IS LOW...SO NO MENTION OF THUNDER IN
THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. VFR CONDITIONS AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE DURING THE OVERNIGHT. MENTIONED
SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT A FEW SPOTS WHERE THE WINDS ARE LIGHT
AS THE WINDS ALOFT ARE BECOMING STRONG QUICKLY. SOME QUESTION HOW
STRONG THE WINDS WILL GET. ONCE THE SHOWERS START THE WINDS WILL
NOT BE AS STRONG. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE AROUND NOON MAINLY
OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND A PORTION OF NE OHIO INCLUDING MFD AND CLE
AND POSSIBLY CAK. THE 850 MB WINDS GET TO AROUND 70 KTS AT NOON
WHICH IS STRONG EVEN IN WARM ADVECTION.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
VERY UNSETTLED ON THE LAKE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. A LOW PRESSURE AREA
MOVING THROUGH THE THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THE NEXT FEW DAYS WAS
CAUSING A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND INCREASING STRONG WINDS
JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE FOR TODAY. THE LAKE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE
DIFFERENCE WILL BE NIL SO SOME MIXING WILL OCCUR. BECAUSE OF THAT
WILL ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS 20 TO
25 KNOTS DECREASING BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING. THE WAVES IN THE
NEARSHORE WILL NOT BE THAT HIGH. SOME QUESTION TO THE TIMING WHETHER
THE WINDS WILL DECREASE BEFORE EVENING OVER THE WESTERN LAKE. AT
THIS TIME WITH THE UNCERTAINTY WILL TO WITH AN EXPIRATION TIME OF 9
PM ON THE WEST END AND 10 PM ON THE EAST.
THE WINDS ON WEDNESDAY WILL NOT BE TOO STRONG AS THE LOW WEAKENS.
ON THURSDAY A WEAK FRONT OR TROF MOVES THROUGH AND THAT COULD CAUSE
WINDS AND WAVES NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON THE EAST END
OF THE LAKE.
ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE FRIDAY AND THAT WILL
DEFINITELY PROMPT THE NEED FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS WINDS COULD
GET UP TO 30 KNOTS. THAT THREAT WILL LAST INTO SUNDAY ON THE ENTIRE
LAKE AND POSSIBLY INTO EARLY MONDAY ON THE EAST END. THE THREAT FOR
SUSTAINED WINDS REACHING GALE FORCE FRIDAY NIGHT IS POSSIBLE AS THE
COLD ADVECTION IS SIGNIFICANT AND THE WINDS ALOFT ARE NEAR 35
KNOTS...THIS THREAT WILL BE MONITORED.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LEZ146>149.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LEZ142>145.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...ADAMS
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
202 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL LAKES LATE TOMORROW DRAGGING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK SO NO CHANGES NEEDED FOR MIDNIGHT UPDATE.
DRY FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE OVERNIGHT WITH THE WARM FRONT TO THE
NORTH OF US. SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN MAKING
THEIR WAY TOWARD THE I-75 CORRIDOR TOWARD MORNING. SOUTHEAST FLOW
WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AND KEEP TEMPERATURES UP. OTHER THAN
POSSIBLY ACROSS THE FAR EAST WHERE LOWS MAY DIP INTO THE UPPER
50S...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE THE SLOW
MOVING SURFACE LOW...NOW CENTERED OVER MISSOURI. LOW FORECAST TO
MOVING INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS TOMORROW AND ONLY TO BE NEAR CHICAGO BY
TOMORROW EVENING. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA TOMORROW AND WONT BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
UNTIL TOMORROW EVENING.
SPC HAS EXTENDED THE SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE TSRA ON TUESDAY TO THE
OHIO RIVER. STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND MOVES INTO THE
CENTRAL LAKES LATE TOMORROW SO THERE WILL BE LIFT. HOWEVER...WILL
BE LATE AND WITH THE RAIN CAPE WILL BE LIMITED. DID NOT ISSUE A
FLOOD WATCH BECAUSE OF THE TIMING AND THE FACT THAT IT HAS BEEN SO
DRY LATELY. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION LATE
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
CHANCE POPS CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY/LOWER GREAT
LAKES WEDNESDAY AND MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA. AS IT DOES SERIES
OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA. THIS FAR OUT DID
NOT TRY TO TIME EACH SHORT WAVE JUST KEPT CHANCE POPS GOING.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE NEXT PIECE OF JET ENERGY DIVING INTO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE GREAT LAKES WILL PASS OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS
MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS WITH IT AND THE THREAT OF SOME LAKE EFFECT
SHOWERS OVER NE OHIO AND NW PA IN ITS WAKE. THESE LAKE EFFECT
SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO SUNDAY.
FRIDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH HIGHS
VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL AVERAGES. COOLER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
IN THE MEANTIME THE AREA OF RAIN OVER INDIANA WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EAST AS THE 700 MB FLOW IS SOUTHERLY. THE HRRR MODELS TIMING IS
GOOD IN BRINGING THE SHOWERS INTO TOL AND FDY AROUND 11Z AND THEN
IT TRIES TO SHIFT SOME SHOWERS EASTWARD A LITTLE TOO FAST. WENT
WITH A SLOWER TIMING OF THE SHOWERS GETTING TO MFD AROUND 15Z AND
CLE 18Z AND ERI 23Z. IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS MVFR CONDITIONS BUT
THE PREDOMINANT MAY BE VFR...NOT TOTALLY CONFIDENT IN THAT.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED IN THE SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON. CONFIDENT IN THAT IS LOW...SO NO MENTION OF THUNDER IN
THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. VFR CONDITIONS AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE DURING THE OVERNIGHT. MENTIONED
SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT A FEW SPOTS WHERE THE WINDS ARE LIGHT
AS THE WINDS ALOFT ARE BECOMING STRONG QUICKLY. SOME QUESTION HOW
STRONG THE WINDS WILL GET. ONCE THE SHOWERS START THE WINDS WILL
NOT BE AS STRONG. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE AROUND NOON MAINLY
OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND A PORTION OF NE OHIO INCLUDING MFD AND CLE
AND POSSIBLY CAK. THE 850 MB WINDS GET TO AROUND 70 KTS AT NOON
WHICH IS STRONG EVEN IN WARM ADVECTION.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
INTO TUESDAY BEFORE IT BEGINS A SLOW MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS LOW
WILL SLOWLY FILL AS IT DRIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON
THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR INCREASING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS
ON TUESDAY. WINDS MAY END UP BEING STRONG ENOUGH TO NEED A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY UP UNTIL A COLD FRONT PASSES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL DECREASE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT BUT SHOULD
REMAIN SOUTHWESTERLY AS ANOTHER PIECE OF JET ENERGY DIVES INTO THE
GREAT LAKES TROUGH. THIS SHOULD BRING A REINFORCING SURGE OF COOLER
AIR ACROSS THE LAKE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE IN ITS WAKE WITH A SMALL CRAFT LIKELY NEEDED FOR
AT LEAST THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LAKE.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...DJB/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...MULLEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORMAN OK
1149 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014
.AVIATION...
CLOUDS HAVE EXITED THE TAF SITES AND CLEAR SKIES SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 850 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014/
UPDATE...
WIND SPEEDS HAVE DECREASED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS SO WIND
ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO DROP. RAIN HAS ALSO MOVED EAST OF THE AREA
AND CLOUDS CONT TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST. COOL AND DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS UPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY
FROM THE FA.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 656 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014/
AVIATION...
SKIES ARE CLEARING THIS EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST AND CLOUDS HAVE
EXITED ALL BUT KPNC... KOKC AND KOUN AS OF THE LATEST OBS. CIGS
ARE VFR WHERE CLOUDS REMAIN. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT THIS
EVENING.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014/
DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS FOCUSED ON RAIN ENDING AND STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS.
CURRENTLY... LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SHIFT
EASTWARD OUT OF CENTRAL OK. EXPECT PRECIP TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING... SLOWLY TAPERING OFF ACROSS THE OKC METRO THROUGH 4-
5 PM CDT. RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR APPEAR TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON
THE PRECIP TRENDS... SO LEFT A SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH THE LATE
EVENING... 7-10PM FOR LOCATIONS ALONG I-35 IN N CENTRAL OK. STRONG
NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST ACROSS WRN AND CENTRAL OK THROUGH
THE EVENING. THROUGH 300 PM CDT... SITES ACROSS WRN OK CONTINUE
TO REPORT GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH... WHERE CLEARING CONTINUES...
THUS RESULTING IN BETTER BL MIXING. WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY
THROUGH THE EVENING... RELAXING GRADUALLY AFTER SUNSET. NW WINDS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUE... PICKING UP THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING/AFTN WITH INCREASED MIXING DUE TO DAY TIME HEATING. NOT AS
WINDY AS TODAY... GUSTS TMRW WILL APPROACH 20 TO 30 MPH ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND ERN OK. WITH NW WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH
TUE... TEMPS WILL ONLY TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S ACROSS
OK... AND MID 70S IN WRN N TX.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK... INTO THE WEEKEND... RIDGING WILL
DEVELOP WED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. IN RESPONSE... SOUTH WINDS
WILL RETURN... RESULTING IN A GRADUAL WARM UP THROUGH SUN. NOT
RECORD WARMTH... BUT HIGHS WILL BE A 5-7 DEGREES ABOVE AVG... IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AT TIMES FROM WED-SUN.
LATE THIS WEEKEND... LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING HINTS OF ANOTHER
H500 SHORTWAVE... SO PRECIP CHANCES MAY RETURN LATE SUN-MON.
JTK
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 45 70 45 76 / 10 0 0 0
HOBART OK 44 73 45 78 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 46 75 47 80 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 40 72 41 78 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 46 70 42 72 / 10 0 0 0
DURANT OK 48 73 48 76 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
647 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEK. A PRECEDING PLUME OF DEEP
GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL BRING A SOAKING RAIN TO
ALL OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
COOLER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
EXAMINATION OF SATL-DERIVED PWAT LOOP AND LATEST RAP OUTPUT SHOWS
A PLUME OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE THE CENTRAL PA THIS
EVENING...PRODUCING A BIT OF LGT RAIN/DRIZZLE WHERE FLOW ASCENDS
THE CENTRAL MTNS. HAVE ADJUSTED EVENING POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
AND REMOVE MENTION OF PRECIP ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY.
MAIN FOCUS REMAINS WITH UPPER LOW AND ASSOC LL JET OVR THE OHIO
VALLEY WITH IT/S PLUME OF GULF OF MEX MOISTURE. LATEST MDL DATA
CONTINUES TO INDICATE RAIN ASSOC WITH ANOMALOUS LL JET/PWATS WILL
OVERSPREAD THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU AND CENTRAL MTNS LATE TONIGHT.
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND LOCAL UPSLOPE INTO THE LAURELS AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL MAKE FOR INCREASING POPS OVR THE W COUNTIES
AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH NR 100 POPS BY DAWN...AS THE RIBBON OF HIGHLY
ABOVE NORMAL PW REACHES THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU. SOUTHERLY WIND
GUSTS COULD EXCEED 30 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT OVR THE HIGH TERRAIN OF
WESTERN PA.
GIVEN CURRENT DWPTS AND CONTINUED MOISTURE ADVECTION
OVERNIGHT...DON/T SEE ANY AREAS DROPPING BLW 60F TONIGHT...AND
THE SUSQ VALLEY IS LIKELY TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE M/U60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
IMPRESSIVE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING THE PASSAGE OF THE
SLOW EASTWARD MOVING FRONTAL ZONE...COMPLICATED BY A SFC WAVE
LIFTING NORTHWARD ALONG IT...WILL BE THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FOCUS
ON WEDNESDAY. DESPITE WEAKENING BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS...THE SYSTEM
WILL PACK A PUNCH THROUGHOUT CENTRAL PA...AND WILL PRODUCE
MARGINAL CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS AND A 3 TO 6 HOUR PERIOD OF
CONVECTIVE RAINFALL IN MOST AREAS. AS ALWAYS...WITH SUCH STRONG
SPEED SHEAR...LOW LCLS AND THE PRESENCE OF WEAK TO MODERATE CAPE
ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW
STRONGER BOWING OR ROTATING CELLS ALONG THE LARGER CONVECTIVE
LINE. WE REMAIN IN SEE TEXT AREA FROM SPC WED AFTN.
THE MAIN THREAT WEDNESDAY WILL BE SOAKING RAINFALL ALONG THE SLOW
MOVING BOUNDARY. LATEST MDL BLENDED QPF RANGES FROM CLOSE TO AN
INCH ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY...TO ARND 2 INCHES OVR THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS. HOWEVER...CONVECTION WILL LIKELY LEAD TO LOCALIZED
HIGHER AMTS. 12Z CONVECTION ALLOWING MDL RUNS SHOW THE POTENTIAL
OF LOCAL 3"+ AMOUNTS...WHICH COME IN ON THE LOWER END OF 3-HR AND
6-HR FFG GUIDANCE. IN GENERAL...EXPECT A BENEFICIAL RAINFALL
RATHER THAN A FLOOD THREAT GIVEN OUR RECENT DRY SPELL. HEAVIEST
RAINFALL OVER EASTERN AREAS MAY NOT BE DONE BY LATE
AFTERNOON...BUT DRIER AIR WILL SWEEP INTO WESTERN AREAS BY MID
AFTERNOON WITH A FAIRLY SHARP CUTOFF EXPECTED TO THE HIGHER
INTENSITY RAINFALL. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BUFFET
THE RIDGE TOPS...AND LOCATIONS NORTH OF RIDGE GAPS. MAX TEMPS WILL
LKLY RANGE FROM THE LOW 60S OVR THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU TO THE
L/M70S ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BROAD AND DEEP/CLOSED H5 CYCLONE CENTERED INVOF THE OH/IN/KY
BORDER AT 16/0000Z WILL PIVOT SLOWLY ENEWD INTO W-CNTRL PA BY
17/0000Z. BY THIS TIME A KICKER SYSTEM CROSSING THE NRN PLAINS AND
UPPER MIDWEST WILL FORCE THE AMPLIFIED EASTERN U.S. SYSTEM INTO A
PROCESS OF OPENING/WEAKENING INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND BY EARLY FRIDAY.
THIS PROCESS APPEARS TO BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE NRN KICKER SYSTEM
ENERGY IS ABSORBED AND FEEDS INTO THE ERN CONUS MEAN TROUGH. WHAT
ULTIMATELY HAPPENS WITH THIS ENERGY REMAINS UNDECIDED FROM A MODEL
PERSPECTIVE AS THE SUBTLE SHORTWAVE DIFFS WILL LKLY IMPACT THE
SHARPNESS OF THE TROUGH ALONG WITH THE PROGRESSION OF EMBEDDED SFC
FRONTS. TAKEN AS A WHOLE...THE INCORPORATION OF THE UPSTREAM
ENERGY SHOULD ALLOW THE TROUGH TO RELOAD OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AND NORTHEAST STATES INTO THE WEEKEND. ENSEMBLE
MEANS AND TELECONNECTIONS FAVOR PERSISTENT ERN CONUS TROUGHING
INTO NEXT WEEK.
HVY RAIN THREAT SHOULD SHIFT EWD OUT OF THE CWA WED NGT ALONG WITH
THE STG SLY LLJ AND AXIS OF ANOMALOUS MSTR/PWS. HOWEVER EXPECT
WEATHER CONDITIONS TO REMAIN UNSETTLED AND `SHOWERY` ON THURS AS
THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH LIFTS NEWD ACROSS THE AREA. BROAD CYCLONIC
FLOW WILL KEEP THE CHC OF SHOWERS IN THE FCST ALONG THE ALLEGHENY
FRONT/NW PLATEAU HOWEVER PCPN LOOKS TO BE VERY LGT/SPOTTY OVER
THESE AREAS FRI. FRONTAL PASSAGE EMBEDDED WITHIN BROAD CYC FLOW
ALOFT SHOULD OCCUR AROUND SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A CHUNK OF SUB-
ZERO AIR AT 850MB SAT NGT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THIS MAY SUPPORT SOME
SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE FAVORED HIGH ELEVATIONS/UPSLOPE AREAS ALONG
THE WRN RIDGES AND DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE. HP SHOULD PROVIDE MAINLY
DRY WEATHER SUN INTO MON.
ONE OR MORE REINFORCING SFC FRONTAL PASSAGES ALONG WITH MEAN
TROUGHING SHOULD SUPPORT SEASONABLY COOL...NEAR-TO-BELOW AVG
TEMPERATURES DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
WED NGT LOW TEMPS WHICH WILL STILL BE RELATIVELY MILD BY MID OCT
STANDARDS.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON WITH PERSISTENT LLVL
SOUTHEAST FLOW AND INCREASINGLY MOIST DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT.
AIR FIELDS SHOULD SEE 15G30KT RANGES FOR MUCH OF THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT WITH LOCALLY STRONGER GUSTS DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS...WEST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MVFR TO IFR REDUCTIONS RETURN BY MID EVE AS LOW CLOUDS AGAIN
OVERSPREAD THE REGION. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BREEZY AT THE SURFACE
AS 850MB FLOW APPROACHES 50KTS...CONTINUING THIS PROLONGED PERIOD
OF LLWS.
THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH A STRONG FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION LATE TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED EVE. STRONG FLOW WILL KEEP
WINDS GUSTY AND LLWS ONGOING. WIDESPREAD REDUCTIONS WILL ALSO
PERSIST WITH OTHER IMPACTS BEING AN APPROX 12HR PERIOD OF RAIN AND
POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS /IN THE WEST DURING THE DAY WED AND IN THE
EAST WED AFT AND EVE/.
OUTLOOK...
WED...COLD FRONT. WIDESPREAD REDUCTIONS. PERIODS OF RAIN AND
SCATTERED TSTMS. LLWS. BREEZY.
THU...SCT SHOWERS WITH RESTRICTIONS LIKELY. IMPROVING LATE.
LIGHTER WINDS.
FRI...MAINLY VFR.
SAT-SUN...MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT MVFR CIGS AND CHC SHRA/SHSN
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...DEVOIR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
956 PM EDT WED OCT 15 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN AND PERSIST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION EARLY TUESDAY. A CANADIAN AIR MASS WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 930 PM...WV IMAGERY AND RAP DATA SHOW POTENT VORT DIVING ESE
TOWARD THE BASE OF DEEP CLOSED UPPER LOW. FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO RING OUT NUMEROUS NC MTN SHOWERS...
ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH CHANCES STEADILY
DECREASING...YET STILL POSSIBLE INTO THE FTHLS OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE... CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS...OVERCAST FOR MANY LOCALES...
WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
AS OF 515 PM...SLUG OF DEEP MOISTURE AHEAD OF VORT ROTATING THRU
DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS
ACRS THE MTNS AND FTHLS THIS EVENING. ACRS THE PIEDMONT...SCT
CLOUDS SHOULD GIVE WAY TO THICKER CLOUDINESS...AND LOCALIZED
GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AS WELL.
AS OF 250 PM...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN
UPPER LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE OH VALLEY TO THE GREAT LAKES THRU THE
PERIOD. A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND THE LOW AND
ACROSS THE AREA THRU THE PERIOD AS WELL. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS
ACROSS THE AREA IN THE SWLY FLOW AROUND THE UPPER LOW. THE FORCING
FROM THE SHORT WAVES COMBINED WITH WEAK INSTABILITY FROM THE COLD
MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL INTERACT WITH THE MOISTURE TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS
TO SCT SHRA ACROSS THE MTNS TONIGHT AND THU. SHRA SHUD REMAIN
ISOLATED ELSEHWERE UNTIL LATE THU AFTERNOON WHEN THE FLOW FINALLY
TURNS NWLY AS THE LAST OF THE SHORT WAVES MOVES EAST AND TAKES THE
TROF AXIS TRAILING THE UPPER LOW EAST AS WELL. EVEN WHERE SHRA DO
NOT DEVELOP...THERE SHUD BE QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDINESS BEFORE THE
WINDS FINALLY TAKE ON A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT LATE ON THU. RIGHT
NOW...IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT INSTABILITY WILL BE STRONG ENUF AND
MID LEVEL TEMPS COLD ENUF FOR SMALL HAIL OR GRAUPEL TO DEVELOP IN
THE STRONGER SHRA. THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT...BUT DO
NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF DENSE FOG GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF
CLOUDINESS AND AT LEAST LIGHT MIXING WITH THE SWLY WINDS. GUSTY
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING THEN RETURN ON THU. LOWS TONIGHT
SHUD BE NEAR NORMAL...WHILE HIGHS THU WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE MTNS AND A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL ELSEWHERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT 230 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...THE FINAL VESTIGES OF THE UPPER LOW WILL
BE DEPARTING OUR FORECAST AREA (FA) THURSDAY EVENING. STILL ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO LINGER SMALL POPS ALONG THE SPINE OF THE NC MOUNTAINS
THROUGH PART OF THE EVENING...BEFORE THE UPPER TROF TOTALLY LOOSES
ITS GRIP ON OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER AND LIFTS FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST.
OTHERWISE CLEARING SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES ON TAP WITH SOME 30S
IN THE NC VALLEYS BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. MODEL GUIDE INDICATING DECENT
FOG POTENTIAL IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...AND WILL START US OUT AT
THAT POINT.
UPPER LEVEL FLOW FLATTENS OUT FRIDAY ACROSS MOST OF THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE CONUS...EXCEPT FOR A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW IN THE GREAT LAKES.
DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD RESULT IN SUNNY SKIES...AND OVERALL THERMAL
PATTERN IS NUDGED UP...AS A RESULT TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY. WE WILL HAVE A QUIET FRIDAY
NIGHT AND NOT AS CHILLY...AS A DRY COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST.
AS THE GREAT LAKES UPPER TROF PIVOTS TO THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
CONUS...THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT DIVES THROUGH OUR REGION. THE GULF
OF MEXICO IS COMPLETELY BLOCKED OFF...AND BUFKIT ONLY SHOWING SOME
MID OR HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. THEREFORE WE WILL MAINTAIN A FAIR WEATHER
FORECAST. MEANWHILE THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE LOWER LEVEL
THERMAL PATTERN (H85) NUDGING DOWN (GETTING COOLER). HOWEVER WE
BELIEVE UNDERNEATH THE 5K LAYER THERE WILL BE A NICE THERMAL
RESPONSE TO NEARLY FULL SUNSHINE BEFORE ANY COOLING CAN SETTLE IN.
AS A RESULT WE ARE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDE PACK FOR TEMPERATURES
ON SATURDAY. THE EXCEPTION IS IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE WE STARTED THE
NOTED COOL-DOWN SATURDAY...QUICKER THAN POINTS SOUTH AND EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT 220 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...SUNDAY...12Z GFS INDICATES THAT THE H5
TROF AXIS WILL RIPPLE OFF THE EAST COAST...LEAVING DRY NW FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES LATE THIS WEEKEND. A PERIOD OF MTN WAVE CLOUDS IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NC FOOTHILLS ON SUN. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR...DRY...AND COOL. I WILL FORECAST
TEMPERATURES AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
ON MONDAY...A CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM RIPPLES ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
THE NC MTNS COULD BE BRUSHED BY MOIST LLVL NW FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CLIPPER. I WILL KEEP CLOUDS ACROSS THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS
RANGING WITHIN PARTLY CLOUDY...WITH ISO SHRA ACROSS THE NRN MTNS MON
NIGHT. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER CANADIAN AIR MASS WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD DIP 5-7
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT...SOLID VFR LVL CLOUD DECK TO OVERSPREAD THE TERMINAL THIS
EVENING WITH CIGS PERHAPS LOWERING TO 5K FEET AT SOME POINT TONIGHT.
WSW WINDS ABT 6 KTS TO LINGER THRU THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE VEERING TO
NW IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS A SMALL POSSIBILITY OF SEEING A SHOWER
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
ELSEHWERE...CIGS...MAINLY VFR LVL OVC TO PERSIST TONIGHT WITH SHOWER
CHANCES CONTINUING...ESPECIALLY ACRS THE MOUNTAINS. WITH
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AND CONTINUED MIXING FROM WINDS...STILL
DO NOT EXPECT ANY IFR FOG...BUT MVFR PROBABLE AT KAVL.
LOWER CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP FROM THE WEST TOWARD THE BLUE RIDGE TONIGHT
AND DROP TO MVFR...POSSIBLY IFR OVERNIGHT AT KAVL. LOW VFR CIGS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THRU THE END OF THE PERIOD...EXCEPT AT KAND
WHERE THEY SCATTER OUT AFTER DAYBREAK. KAVL HAS THE BEST CHC OF
SEEING ANY SHRA THIS PERIOD...BUT EVEN THERE...CHCS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE ATTM.
OUTLOOK...DRYING WILL DEVELOP FRI. A COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM THE NW THIS WEEKEND.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
02-08Z 08-14Z 14-20Z 20-02Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 83% HIGH 81% HIGH 85% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 83% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 97% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NED
NEAR TERM...CSH/RWH
SHORT TERM...TS
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...CSH/RWH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
455 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND
THEN OFFSHORE BY TOMORROW NIGHT. AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES
BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DRIER
WEATHER WILL RETURN AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
420 PM UPDATE...DESPITE THE VERY ACTIVE FCST IT APPEARS TO BE ON
TRACK WRT THE NEWEST GUIDANCE...WARRANTING ONLY RATHER MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS FOR SKY/POP TO BETTER LINE UP WITH REALITY. BAND OF
CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT IS NOW JUST ENTERING THE CWFA DOES NOT
APPEAR TO POSE ANY IMMEDIATE THREAT OF SVR WX...BUT EMBEDDED HEAVY
RAIN IS BEING CLOSELY MONITORED. IT STILL APPEARS THE SVR THREAT
WITH THIS LINE WILL TREND UPWARD TONIGHT AS THE RR QUAD OF UPPER JET
COMES OVERHEAD. LATEST COUPLE RUNS OF THE HRRR SUGGEST THE LINE WILL
BECOME SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED UNTIL IT ENTERS THE I-77 CORRIDOR A
LITTLE BEFORE MIDNIGHT...WHEN IT DEVELOPS A SHORT QLCS.
AS OF 250 PM EDT TUESDAY...RATHER POTENT UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT THE NEAR TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. LATEST DAY ONE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FROM SPC CONSUMES THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WITHIN THE SLIGHT RISK REGION...WITH AN
ADDITIONAL 5 PERCENT AREA FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES. THIS COINCIDES
WITH VERY IMPRESSIVE SHEAR PROFILES ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING
LONGWAVE TROF...UPPER JET...AND BACKED FLOW AT THE SURFACE. MOST
RECENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES INCREASING INSTABILITY AMONGST
CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH ALMOST THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
REACHING INTO THE 500-1000J/KG RANGE. CONVECTIVE ALLOWING GUIDANCE
SOURCES CONTINUE TO INDICATE STRENGTHENING OF A SECONDARY LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH ARE NOW PUSHING THROUGH
NORTH/CENTRAL GA. IMPROVED UPPER SUPPORT BACKED BY AN APPROACHING
SHORT WAVE IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED UPPER JET MAX WILL PROVIDE AMPLE
DIVERGENCE/LIFT IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS TO AID THE ABOVE MENTIONED
CONVECTION THIS EVENING...AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT DESPITE HEATING
LOSS. LONG RIGHT TURNING HODOGRAPHS IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT ARE INDICATIVE OF IMPRESSIVE SHEAR THROUGH THE PROFILE.
BACKED FLOW AT THE SURFACE COULD SUPPORT TORNADOGENESIS WITHIN THE
STRONGEST UPDRAFTS THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. THUS THE PRIMARY SEVERE
WEATHER CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE ISOLATED AND SHORT LIVED TORNADOES
ALONG WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
IN ADDITION...CONTINUED HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH THE DAY TODAY WILL
PROVIDE SUPPORTIVE ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS FOR POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING
WITHIN AND ADJACENT TO ANY OF THE STRONGER CELLS THROUGH THE FIRST
12 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THUS THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT. WIND ADVISORY ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN WILL LIKELY
BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES
BEHIND THE FROPA OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AFTER DAYBREAK
AS THE FRONT SLIDES INTO CENTRAL NC AND THE MIDLANDS OF SC.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RATHER STATIONARY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FEATURED IN THE FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT 200 PM EDT TUESDAY...A DEEP CLOSED UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO BE
CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WED EVENING. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO
MOVE NE AND WEAKEN THROUGH FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR ZONAL FLOW TO DEVELOP
OVER THE CAROLINAS AND NE GA BY LATE WEEK.
AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES NE WED NIGHT THE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD
WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA. THE ASSOCIATED DPVA WILL CONTINUE TO
TRIGGER SOME SCT SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN NC. THE SHOWERS WILL
BE MOST NUMEROPUS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WHERE NW FLOW WILL
ENHANCE LIFT. A FEW NW FLOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO THU MORNING OVER
THE NC MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NW WITH CLEARING COMMENCING DURING THU. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
CONTROL THE WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURE WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL ON THURSDAY...WARMING TO NEAR
CLIMO ON FRIDAY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD NEAR NORMAL BY
CLOUD COVER WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN WILL FALL BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS DEVELOPING.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT 215 PM EDT TUESDAY...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
OVER THE EASTERN U.S. EARLY IN THE WEEKEND AND THEN TRANSITION
EASTWARD ALLOWING FOR ZONAL FLOW TO DEVELOP BY LATE SUNDAY. ANOTHER
UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT
WEEK AND MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TUESDAY.
AT THE SURFACE A DRY COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CP HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SE OVER THE AREA SAT INTO
SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL EAST TO THE COAST ON MONDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. THE MONDAY NIGHT FRONT
MAY TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR
CLIMO.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHRA/TSRA MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
TONIGHT LEADING TO VISB/CIG RESTRICTIONS. SEVERE TSRA POTENTIAL WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WITH ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE EXPECTED TO
SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT...BUT EVENTUALLY A COLD FROPA
WILL CUT OFF THE TS RISK. INITIALLY...CLUSTERS OF WARM SECTOR
SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST PROMPTING INITIAL TEMPO FOR
TSRA THRU 00Z WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS LIKELY. EXPECTING A BRIEF
LULL IN THE ACTIVITY BEFORE A SECOND LINE ASSOCIATED WITH ABOVE
MENTIONED UPPER IMPULSE MOVES INTO THE REGION EARLY MORNING. THE
FRONT ITSELF WILL CLEAR THE REGION BY MID/LATE MORNING ALLOWING
CIG/VISB RESTRICITONS TO IMPROVE FOR THE LATER QUARTER OF THE TAF
CYCLE. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES.
ELSEWHERE...AS WITH KCLT ABOVE EXPECTING A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR/IFR
RESTRICTIONS TO HIGHLIGHT THE TAF CYCLE AT ALL SITES AS MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED. CURRENT SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE UPSTATE AND WESTERN NC WILL SLIDE EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON WITH THE TAFS HIGHLIGHTING SUCH VIA TEMPOS WITH SLIGHT
TIMING ADJUSTMENTS BASED UPON SITE LOCATION. A SECONDARY LINE OF
CONVECTION IS PROGGED TO SLIDE INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST BY LATE
AFTERNOON...BEFORE PUSHING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. EXPECTING FURTHER CIG/VISB RESTRICTIONS WITH HEAVY
RAIN AND POSSIBLE SEVERE +TSRA WITH THIS SECOND LINE THUS PREVAILED
SUCH AT EACH LOCATION. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH LOW STRATUS ERODING BY EARLY MORNING ACROSS THE WEST...MID/LATE
MORNING FURTHER EAST. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY AS STRONG
LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH WINDS SUBSIDING
BEHIND THE FRONT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCES RELAX.
OUTLOOK...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
EARLY WED. GRADUAL DRYING WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
MID TO LATE WEEK.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
21-03Z 03-09Z 09-15Z 15-21Z
KCLT HIGH 85% MED 79% HIGH 81% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 90% MED 73% HIGH 94% HIGH 100%
KAVL MED 70% MED 79% HIGH 90% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 81% MED 76% HIGH 85% HIGH 97%
KGMU HIGH 91% MED 69% HIGH 95% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 85% HIGH 88% HIGH 91% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR GAZ010-017.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NCZ033-048>053-058-
059-062>065-501>506.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NCZ033-048>053-
058-059-062>065-501-503-505.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR SCZ001-002.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JAT
NEAR TERM...CDG/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...LG
AVIATION...CDG/WIMBERLEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MEMPHIS TN
932 PM CDT WED OCT 15 2014
.UPDATE...
MIDEVENING GOES IR IMAGERY SHOWED MIDLEVEL OVERCAST CLOUDINESS...
ROUGHLY NORTHEAST OF A TUPELO TO MEMPHIS TO JONESBORO LINE.
DAYTIME TEMPS WERE CONSIDERABLY COOLER UNDER THE OVERCAST...BUT
LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WERE ALLOWING AREAS TO THE SOUTHWEST
TO COOL MORE QUICKLY.
SOME CONCERN FOR PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT...NEAR THE CLEARING LINE.
12Z HRRR MODEL PROGGED BRIEF /1 HOUR/ VISIBILITY REDUCTION TO 4
MILES NEAR CORINTH AND JACKSON...BUT OTHERWISE LITTLE FOG
POTENTIAL.
PWB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 PM CDT WED OCT 15 2014/
UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT WED OCT 15 2014/
DISCUSSION...
CURRENT H5 ANALYSIS PLACES AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER CENTRAL
INDIANA WITH THE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL
KENTUCKY...EASTERN TENNESSEE...AND PORTIONS OF GEORGIA AND
ALABAMA. AN ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW IS ALSO CENTERED IN CENTRAL
INDIANA WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST. THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS BROAD UPPER TROUGH HAS PROVIDED CLOUD COVER
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY AND ALSO PRODUCED VERY LIGHT SHOWERS
EARLIER IN THE DAY. OVERNIGHT CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST WITH NO SIGNIFICANT POPS AS LOWS WILL
BE NEAR NORMAL FOR MID OCTOBER.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON
THURSDAY AS UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS BUILD OVER THE AREA. WINDS FROM
THE EAST WILL BE LIGHTER AND WILL SHIFT ON THURSDAY NIGHT TO BE
FROM THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER ON FRIDAY WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT. MOISTURE
WILL BE LIMITED WITH THIS FRONT...SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY
SIGNIFICANT POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER ON SATURDAY UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE RAIN FREE AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE
THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL PROVIDE PLEASANT CONDITIONS AND
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
MODELS INDICATE A SHORTWAVE MOVING JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
MIDSOUTH ON MONDAY. NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE LIES IN CURRENT
SOLUTIONS AND MODELS DO NOT INDICATE MUCH MOISTURE PRESENT FOR ANY
SIGNIFICANT POPS. FOR NOW HAVE JUST INCLUDED PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES FOR PARTS OF THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY PM WITH JUST
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR POPS. AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EAST
COAST MOVES FURTHER EAST...MODELS INDICATE A RIDGE MOVING INTO THE
REGION LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. THUS
HAVE KEPT CONDITIONS DRY LATE IN THE PERIOD.
ZDM
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS
TONIGHT WILL INCREASE TO WEST WINDS BETWEEN 5-7 KTS AFTER 16/15Z.
CJC
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
117 PM CDT TUE OCT 14 2014
.UPDATE... /ISSUED 1103 AM CDT TUE OCT 14 2014/
CURRENTLY SKIES ARE CLOUDY AND TEMPS ARE IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE REGION. SOME
SHOWERS ARE PRESENT IN THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS DOWN A BIT IN SOME AREAS AND POPS
UP ACCORDING TO RECENT TRENDS AND THE LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE.
UPDATED GRIDS AND ZONES ARE AVAILABLE.
ZDM
&&
.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 AM CDT TUE OCT 14 2014/
IR SATELLITE SHOWING MERIDIONAL FLOW ACROSS THE COUNTRY WITH A
RIDGE DOMINATING THE WESTERN HALF AND A SECOND ALONG THE EAST
COAST. SANDWICHED BETWEEN WAS THE CURRENT STORM/UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTERED IN NORTHEAST MISSOURI...WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE HANGING
BACK ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND AS FAR SOUTH AS THE ARKLATEX.
CLOSER TO HOME PATCHY AREAS OF POST FRONTAL LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE
WAS OCCURRING UNDER CLOUDY SKIES...WHILE WINDS WERE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST OCCASIONALLY GUSTING TO NEAR 20 MPH IN THE DELTA.
TEMPERATURES HAVE SHOWN ONLY SLIGHT COOLING SINCE MIDNIGHT WITH
MANY READINGS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
FOR TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
STACKED STORM IN THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL SLOWLY MEANDER
EAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST...KEEPING CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND BREEZY WEATHER IN THE
MIDSOUTH. ONLY CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS A BUMP UP TO
OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS THE NORTH DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND AN
ANTICIPATED MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. BEST THREAT FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS...BOTH THIS AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WILL LIE
EAST OF A CORNING ARKANSAS TO A SAVANNAH TENNESSEE LINE.
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BRIEFLY BUILD
OVER THE MIDSOUTH STARTING THURSDAY AS THE WESTERN RIDGE MOVES
INTO THE PLAINS AND DEAMPLIFIES. THIS WILL RESULT IN A MORE ZONAL
UPPER LEVEL FLOW...BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY A WARMER AND DRIER TREND
FOR OUR AREA. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BACK MORE SOUTHERLY...WITH
TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO ABOVE NORMAL. MANY FOLKS WILL SEE
HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. ONE THING
TO NOTE THOUGH...THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
OVER THE LOWER TENNESSEE RIVER COUNTIES ON THURSDAY.
BY LATE FRIDAY THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE FIRST OF TWO DESCENDING
SHORTWAVES IN THE UPPER MIDWEST. THESE FEATURES WILL CARVE OUT A
NEW TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION AND SEND A COUPLE
OF WEAK COLD FRONTS THROUGH THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED
WITH THE FIRST FRONT LATE FRIDAY...WITH ONLY PASSING CLOUDS
CURRENTLY EXPECTED. THE SECOND WILL HAVE A BIT MORE ENERGY AND
MOISTURE...GIVING THE MIDSOUTH MORE CLOUD COVER AND A THREAT FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS FROM LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HAVE GONE
COOLER THAN THE EXTENDED MODEL FORECASTS WITH TEMPERATURES STARTING
SATURDAY...BUT THIS WILL ONLY RESULT IN THE REGION STAYING VERY
CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS.
JAB
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF SET
SCATTERED SHRAS CURRENTLY CONTINUE ACROSS THE CWA. CIGS HAVE
LIFTED TO VFR. EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER BACK TO MVFR DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. W WINDS OF 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 22 KTS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z. SPEEDS WILL DECREASE DOWN TO 8-10 KTS DURING
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN BY 15Z.
KRM
&&
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1103 AM CDT TUE OCT 14 2014
.UPDATE...
CURRENTLY SKIES ARE CLOUDY AND TEMPS ARE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE REGION. SOME
SHOWERS ARE PRESENT IN THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. HAVE
ADJUSTED TEMPS DOWN A BIT IN SOME AREAS AND POPS UP ACCORDING TO
RECENT TRENDS AND THE LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE. UPDATED GRIDS AND
ZONES ARE AVAILABLE.
ZDM
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 AM CDT TUE OCT 14 2014/
IR SATELLITE SHOWING MERIDIONAL FLOW ACROSS THE COUNTRY WITH A
RIDGE DOMINATING THE WESTERN HALF AND A SECOND ALONG THE EAST
COAST. SANDWICHED BETWEEN WAS THE CURRENT STORM/UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTERED IN NORTHEAST MISSOURI...WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE HANGING
BACK ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND AS FAR SOUTH AS THE ARKLATEX.
CLOSER TO HOME PATCHY AREAS OF POST FRONTAL LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE
WAS OCCURRING UNDER CLOUDY SKIES...WHILE WINDS WERE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST OCCASIONALLY GUSTING TO NEAR 20 MPH IN THE DELTA.
TEMPERATURES HAVE SHOWN ONLY SLIGHT COOLING SINCE MIDNIGHT WITH
MANY READINGS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
FOR TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
STACKED STORM IN THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL SLOWLY MEANDER
EAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST...KEEPING CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND BREEZY WEATHER IN THE
MIDSOUTH. ONLY CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS A BUMP UP TO
OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS THE NORTH DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND AN
ANTICIPATED MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. BEST THREAT FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS...BOTH THIS AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WILL LIE
EAST OF A CORNING ARKANSAS TO A SAVANNAH TENNESSEE LINE.
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BRIEFLY BUILD
OVER THE MIDSOUTH STARTING THURSDAY AS THE WESTERN RIDGE MOVES
INTO THE PLAINS AND DEAMPLIFIES. THIS WILL RESULT IN A MORE ZONAL
UPPER LEVEL FLOW...BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY A WARMER AND DRIER TREND
FOR OUR AREA. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BACK MORE SOUTHERLY...WITH
TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO ABOVE NORMAL. MANY FOLKS WILL SEE
HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. ONE THING
TO NOTE THOUGH...THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
OVER THE LOWER TENNESSEE RIVER COUNTIES ON THURSDAY.
BY LATE FRIDAY THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE FIRST OF TWO DESCENDING
SHORTWAVES IN THE UPPER MIDWEST. THESE FEATURES WILL CARVE OUT A
NEW TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION AND SEND A COUPLE
OF WEAK COLD FRONTS THROUGH THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED
WITH THE FIRST FRONT LATE FRIDAY...WITH ONLY PASSING CLOUDS
CURRENTLY EXPECTED. THE SECOND WILL HAVE A BIT MORE ENERGY AND
MOISTURE...GIVING THE MIDSOUTH MORE CLOUD COVER AND A THREAT FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS FROM LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HAVE GONE
COOLER THAN THE EXTENDED MODEL FORECASTS WITH TEMPERATURES STARTING
SATURDAY...BUT THIS WILL ONLY RESULT IN THE REGION STAYING VERY
CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS.
JAB
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE (14/12Z-15/12Z)
MVFR CEILINGS WILL OCCUR TODAY ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.
CONDITIONS MAY DROP TO IFR THIS MORNING WITH AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN.
SW TO W WINDS 10-15 KTS AND GUSTY.
AFTER 15/00Z...CEILINGS LIFTING TO MOSTLY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS
LINGERING AROUND KMKL. WESTERLY WINDS DIMINISHING TO BETWEEN 6 AND 9
KTS.
JCL
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GREEN BAY WI
514 PM CDT TUE OCT 14 2014
NEW INFORMATION ADDED TO UPDATE SECTION
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 444 PM CDT TUE OCT 14 2014
HAVE RECEIVED NUMEROUS REPORTS OF DOWNED TREES AND POWER OUTAGES
FM MAINLY E-C WI WITH THE SURGE OF STG NE WINDS THAT OCCURRED THIS
AFTN. WE/VE SEEN SURGES OF STG NE WINDS AHEAD OF CYCLONES IN THE
PAST...BUT IN MOST CASES THE STG WINDS SURGED SWWD DOWN THE LAKE
AND BAY AND WERE DUE PRIMARILY TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ITSELF AND
MIXING INTO STG NELY FLOW AT 925-850 MB. THIS TIME THE STRONG
WINDS SURGED NWD ACRS THE AREA...AN INDICATION THAT SOMETHING A
LITTLE DIFFERENT WAS OCCURRING.
MESOPLOTS INDICATED STG 1-HOUR PRESSURE FALL CENTER LIFTG NWD
THROUGH ERN WI AT THE TIME THE STG WINDS WERE OCCURRING...WHICH
WOULD BE CONSISTENT WITH A GRAVITY WAVE GENERATED BY STG UPR SPEED
MAX HEADING UP THE ERN SIDE OF THE SHARP UPR TROF ACRS THE RGN.
THAT ALSO FITS WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OCCURRING NR THE BACK EDGE
OF THE BAND OF PCPN MOVG THROUGH THE AREA AT THAT TIME.
THE STRONGEST WINDS WERE NOW IN THE NE CORNER OF THE FCST
AREA...SO THE EFFECTS OF THE FEATURE SHOULD PUSH OUT OF THE AREA
IN THE NEXT HR OR SO. HOWEVER...NOW WE ARE IN A MORE TYPICAL SITN
WHERE STG NE WINDS IN THE 925-850 MB LAYER WERE IN PLACE OVER THE
BAY AND WRN LAKE MICHIGAN. RAP ACTUALLY EDGES THE 925 MB WINDS UP
TO 50 KTS OVER THE BAY ARND MIDNIGHT BEFORE THEY START BACK DOWN.
LOW-LEVEL STABILITY IS NOT AS FAVORABLE FOR MIXING AS IT COULD BE
AS AIR TEMPS ARE FAIRLY MILD. BUT...STILL THINK THIS SET-UP WL
KEEP FAIRLY STG/GUSTY WINDS GOING OVER ERN WI THROUGH THE
EVENING...THOUGH PEAK WIND SPEEDS SHOULD NOT BE AS HIGH AS THIS
AFTN. PCPN IS ALSO LIKELY TO INCR AGAIN OVER ERN WI AS WE HEAD
THROUGH THE EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT TUE OCT 14 2014
A BAND OF SHOWERS MOVED ACROSS NORTHEAST WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON.
ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE LINE OF SHOWERS...GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS
WERE REPORTED ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN FOR AN HOUR OR
TWO. NUMEROUS TREES OR TREE BRANCHES WERE DOWN ACROSS THE REGION
ALONG WITH POWER OUTAGES. THIS BAND OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE NORTH OF
THE AREA BY THIS EVENING.
FOLLOWED THE HRR FOR PRECIPITATION TRENDS TONIGHT. THIS MODEL
WOULD SUGGEST A BREAK/LULL IN THE ACTION EARLY THIS EVENING WITH
INCREASING CHANCES AS THE EVENING PROGRESS AS SHORTWAVE PIVOTS
AROUND THE UPPER LOW. WILL HAVE LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS IN THE FAR
EAST WITH LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FAR WEST LATE
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. DID LOWER MIN TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
FAR NORTH TONIGHT WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME CLEARING LATE THIS
TONIGHT. WARMEST TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE ACROSS THE WEST
WHERE MORE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT TUE OCT 14 2014
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE TRENDED BETTER TO A SOLUTION WITH
RESPECT TO THE DEPARTURE OF THE UPPER LOW SYSTEM FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WILL DIMINISH POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AND
START OUT WITH A BRIEF DRIER PERIOD THURSDAY AS A WEAK RIDGE
DRIFTS OVER THE STATE.
THE NEXT SHORT WAVE WITH A COOLER CANADIAN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL DROP INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION LATER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. TEMPS ARE MARGINALLY COOL ENOUGH FOR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
MIXED WITH THE RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE FAR NORTH. WILL LEAVE OUT THE
MENTION FOR NOW SINCE DEALING WITH LOWER END POP CHANCES.
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SLIDES OVER LATER SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY...FOLLOWED WITH ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
PROGS ARE STILL SUGGESTING THE UPPER RIDGE TO BEGIN TO BUILDING INTO
THE AREA AFTER NEXT MONDAY FOR A DRIER AND MILDER PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1129 AM CDT TUE OCT 14 2014
UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...THEN AWAY FROM WISCONSIN ON WEDNESDAY.
WEAK SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL BRING PERIODIC
CHANCES FOR RAIN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A BATTLE OF DRIER AIR WORKING
IN FROM THE WEST AND THE SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW
THAT WILL DETERMINE HOW FAR WEST THE PRECIPITATION WILL MAKE. ONCE
THE PRECIPITATION ENDS THIS AFTERNOON...WILL NOT MENTION PRECIPITATION
IN THE 18Z TAF AT KRHI...WHILE ANY PRECIPITATION AT KAUW/KCWA WOULD
LINGER INTO THE EVENING AS SHOWERS PIVOT AROUND THE UPPER LOW. THE
BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE FOR KGRB/KATW/KMTW...ALTHOUGH
SHOULD BE DECREASING LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. MVFR/IFR
CIGS WILL CONTINUE TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH DRIER
MOVING INTO THE REGION SHOULD BRING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE.........SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....ECKBERG
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......ECKBERG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
403 PM CDT TUE OCT 14 2014
ADDED AVIATION AND MARINE SECTIONS
.TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
THE OCCLUDED SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL IL. THIS SYSTEM IS
CAUSING SEVERAL COMPLEX WEATHER FEATURES OVER SOUTHERN WI WHERE THE
SURFACE/925MB FRONT EXTENDS NORTHWARD FROM THE LOW. ALL BUT FAR
SOUTHEAST WI NEAR KENOSHA HAVE SWITCHED OVER TO NORTHERLY WINDS WITH
THIS FRONT. THE WINDS ARE SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AND INCREASING JUST
BEHIND THE FRONT. THE HIGHEST WINDS ARE ACCELERATING DOWN THE
LAKESHORE FASTER THAN JUST INLAND.
ANOTHER THING THAT HAPPENED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WAS STRONG WINDS
DEVELOPED IN THE WAKE OF PRECIP ENDING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. WINDS
GUST TO 50 MPH IN SHEBOYGAN AROUND 1 PM WITH THIS FEATURE. THE WIND
GUSTS HAVE COME DOWN TO 35-40 MPH LATE THIS AFTERNOON... AND WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING.
12Z MODELS CAME IN WITH SLIGHTLY LESS PRECIP THAN PREVIOUS RUNS FOR
TONIGHT. THE MESOSCALE MODELS SUPPORT THE LIGHTER SOLUTION FOR
TONIGHT. THE HRRR HAS HAD A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON PRECIP COVERAGE
ALL DAY. THE NEXT BETTER-DEFINED ROUND OF RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH A
SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW THAT IS PROGGED TO SWING
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE MKX AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT THROUGH 4 AM. THE
EAST HALF OF THE MKX AREA WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
SHOWERS.
.WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW AND SURFACE LOW DRIFT THRUOGH INDIANA AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY
CONTINUES TO ROTATE AROUND THEM THROUGH SOUTHEAST WI. EXPECTING
COOLER TEMPS WEDNESDAY THAN WHAT THEY WERE TODAY... WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 50S. EXPECT BRISK NORTH WINDS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20-23 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
BROAD AND DOMINATING UPPER LOW CIRCULATION SLOWLY SHIFTS INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY THIS PERIOD. SOME DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO HOW
QUICK SE WI EXITS THE INFLUENCE OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE
NORTHWEST WIDE OF THIS CIRCULATION...BUT FOR THE MOST PART LOOK
LIKE MIDDAY THURSDAY AND INTO THE AFTERNOON...THE MID LEVEL
RIDGING TAKES HOLD. WILL LINGER SHRA CHANCES INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BUT EVEN WITH THE NEW TAM COMING AROUND TO A DRIER SCENARIO
THURSDAY...WILL GO THE DRY ROUTE. THE TAM HANGS ONTO MORE LVL RH
INTO THURSDAY WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF MORE AGGRESSIVE ON CLEARING
THINGS OUT. 925 TEMPS AVERAGE 9-12C SO ANY SUN WOULD ALLOW TEMPS
TO NUDGE INTO THE LOW 60S.
.FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SHORTWAVE TREKS TO OUR NORTH WITH LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE
POSITIONED INTO SE WI EARLY IN THE DAY. LOW LEVEL COLD AVECTION
RAMPS UP A BIT ON INCREASING NW WINDS. CONSENSUS OF MODELS IS TO
KEEP ANY PRECIP TO OUR NORTH. 12Z ECMWF HAS SAGGED SOME QPF
FURTHER FRIDAY NIGHT BUT FOR THE MOST PART THIS IS AN OUTLIER.
.SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY QUIET NORTHWEST FLOW WITH SURFACE HIGH MOVING
A BITY CLOSER FROM THE PLAINS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE TRENDS WITH
THE ECMWF SHOWING A WETTER LOOK BUT GFS/GEM BOTH DERY. INFLUENCE
OF THE LOW LEVEL COOL POOL IN PLACE WITH 925 TEMPS DOWN TO 3-5C.
.SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING INFLUENCE OF
SHORTWAVE DIVING INTO THE PLAINS. SOME DIFFERENCES ON HOW
AMPLIFIED THIS FEATURE WILL BE THOUGH ECMWF AND GEM SHOW A FAIRLY
DECENT PORT WHILE THE GFS IS WEAKER. 12Z ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF A
BIT ON BRINGING PRECIS INTO WESTERN CWA BEFORE THE DAY IS OUT.
FOR NOW WENT WITH THE POPS WHICH HAS A SLIGHT CHANCE INTO THE
WEST. MUCH OF THE AREA LOOKS DRY WITH POTENTIAL FOR INCREASING
CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE WAVE AND WITH WAN KICKING IN. LATER SHIFTS
MAY BE ABLE TO ELIMINATE THIS POP IF THE DRY TREND BECOMES
CONSISTENT.
.SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW
LOTS OF MODEL VARIABILITY THIS PERIOD WITH BOTH THE GFS AND GEM
SHOWING A STRONGER WAVE WITH BIG TIMING DIFFERENCES...WHILE THE
ECMWF SHOWING A WEAKER POSITIVE TILT WAVE WITH LITTLE OR NO
PRECIS. HAVE KEPT POPS IN PLACE FOR NOW BUT IF WEAKER SOLUTION
OF THE ECMWF BECOMES THE PREVAILING IDEA THEN POP REDUCTION OR
REMOVAL WOULD BECOME NECESSARY.
.TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT OF NORTHWEST ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND
THE PRONOUNCED UPPER RIDGE BUILDING THROUGH THE PLAINS. LARGE
SURFACE HIGH LOOKS TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH
&&
.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS ILLINOIS AND INDIANA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH THE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN. GUSTY NORTH WINDS IN THE WAKE OF A FRONT WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE NIGHT. HIGHEST GUSTS WILL BE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. EXPECT WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS AT
TIMES.
EXPECT IFR CIGS THROUGH THE NIGHT IN SOUTHEAST WI. SOUTH CENTRAL
WI...MSN... COULD SEE CIGS RISE TO 1000-1500 FEET JUST PRIOR TO 12Z
WED. EXPECT SOUTHEAST WI CIGS TO LIFT TO 1000-1500 FT AFTER 12Z THEN
ABOVE 2000 FT BY WED AFTERNOON. THIS IS MORE PESSIMISTIC THAN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST/ 18Z TAF.
SHOWERS OVER FAR SOUTHERN AND WESTERN WI WILL MOVE OUT THIS EVENING.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS IS LIKELY NEAR SHEBOYGAN AROUND MIDNIGHT...
SPREADING DOWN THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES THROUGH EARLY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF A FRONT WERE EXCEEDING GALE FORCE
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND ARE NOW DROPPING DOWN BELOW THAT LEVEL. A
FEW WIND GUSTS COULD STILL REACH GALE FORCE THIS EVENING FROM PORT
WASHINGTON SOUTH TO KENOSHA AS THE FRONT MAKES ITS WAY DOWN THE
LAKE.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS
TO 25 KNOTS. THESE WILL PERSIST THROUGH WED AFTERNOON.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ643>646.
&&
$$
TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...COLLAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
333 PM CDT TUE OCT 14 2014
.TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
THE OCCLUDED SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL IL. THIS SYSTEM IS
CAUSING SEVERAL COMPLEX WEATHER FEATURES OVER SOUTHERN WI WHERE THE
SURFACE/925MB FRONT EXTENDS NORTHWARD FROM THE LOW. ALL BUT FAR
SOUTHEAST WI NEAR KENOSHA HAVE SWITCHED OVER TO NORTHERLY WINDS WITH
THIS FRONT. THE WINDS ARE SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AND INCREASING JUST
BEHIND THE FRONT. THE HIGHEST WINDS ARE ACCELERATING DOWN THE
LAKESHORE FASTER THAN JUST INLAND.
ANOTHER THING THAT HAPPENED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WAS STRONG WINDS
DEVELOPED IN THE WAKE OF PRECIP ENDING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. WINDS
GUST TO 50 MPH IN SHEBOYGAN AROUND 1 PM WITH THIS FEATURE. THE WIND
GUSTS HAVE COME DOWN TO 35-40 MPH LATE THIS AFTERNOON... AND WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING.
12Z MODELS CAME IN WITH SLIGHTLY LESS PRECIP THAN PREVIOUS RUNS FOR
TONIGHT. THE MESOSCALE MODELS SUPPORT THE LIGHTER SOLUTION FOR
TONIGHT. THE HRRR HAS HAD A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON PRECIP COVERAGE
ALL DAY. THE NEXT BETTER-DEFINED ROUND OF RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH A
SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW THAT IS PROGGED TO SWING
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE MKX AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT THROUGH 4 AM. THE
EAST HALF OF THE MKX AREA WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
SHOWERS.
.WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW AND SURFACE LOW DRIFT THRUOGH INDIANA AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY
CONTINUES TO ROTATE AROUND THEM THROUGH SOUTHEAST WI. EXPECTING
COOLER TEMPS WEDNESDAY THAN WHAT THEY WERE TODAY... WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 50S. EXPECT BRISK NORTH WINDS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20-23 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
BROAD AND DOMINATING UPPER LOW CIRCULATION SLOWLY SHIFTS INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY THIS PERIOD. SOME DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO HOW
QUICK SE WI EXITS THE INFLUENCE OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE
NORTHWEST WIDE OF THIS CIRCULATION...BUT FOR THE MOST PART LOOK
LIKE MIDDAY THURSDAY AND INTO THE AFTERNOON...THE MID LEVEL
RIDGING TAKES HOLD. WILL LINGER SHRA CHANCES INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BUT EVEN WITH THE NEW TAM COMING AROUND TO A DRIER SCENARIO
THURSDAY...WILL GO THE DRY ROUTE. THE TAM HANGS ONTO MORE LVL RH
INTO THURSDAY WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF MORE AGGRESSIVE ON CLEARING
THINGS OUT. 925 TEMPS AVERAGE 9-12C SO ANY SUN WOULD ALLOW TEMPS
TO NUDGE INTO THE LOW 60S.
.FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SHORTWAVE TREKS TO OUR NORTH WITH LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE
POSITIONED INTO SE WI EARLY IN THE DAY. LOW LEVEL COLD AVECTION
RAMPS UP A BIT ON INCREASING NW WINDS. CONSENSUS OF MODELS IS TO
KEEP ANY PRECIP TO OUR NORTH. 12Z ECMWF HAS SAGGED SOME QPF
FURTHER FRIDAY NIGHT BUT FOR THE MOST PART THIS IS AN OUTLIER.
.SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY QUIET NORTHWEST FLOW WITH SURFACE HIGH MOVING
A BITY CLOSER FROM THE PLAINS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE TRENDS WITH
THE ECMWF SHOWING A WETTER LOOK BUT GFS/GEM BOTH DERY. INFLUENCE
OF THE LOW LEVEL COOL POOL IN PLACE WITH 925 TEMPS DOWN TO 3-5C.
.SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING INFLUENCE OF
SHORTWAVE DIVING INTO THE PLAINS. SOME DIFFERENCES ON HOW
AMPLIFIED THIS FEATURE WILL BE THOUGH ECMWF AND GEM SHOW A FAIRLY
DECENT PORT WHILE THE GFS IS WEAKER. 12Z ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF A
BIT ON BRINGING PRECIS INTO WESTERN CWA BEFORE THE DAY IS OUT.
FOR NOW WENT WITH THE POPS WHICH HAS A SLIGHT CHANCE INTO THE
WEST. MUCH OF THE AREA LOOKS DRY WITH POTENTIAL FOR INCREASING
CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE WAVE AND WITH WAN KICKING IN. LATER SHIFTS
MAY BE ABLE TO ELIMINATE THIS POP IF THE DRY TREND BECOMES
CONSISTENT.
.SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW
LOTS OF MODEL VARIABILITY THIS PERIOD WITH BOTH THE GFS AND GEM
SHOWING A STRONGER WAVE WITH BIG TIMING DIFFERENCES...WHILE THE
ECMWF SHOWING A WEAKER POSITIVE TILT WAVE WITH LITTLE OR NO
PRECIS. HAVE KEPT POPS IN PLACE FOR NOW BUT IF WEAKER SOLUTION
OF THE ECMWF BECOMES THE PREVAILING IDEA THEN POP REDUCTION OR
REMOVAL WOULD BECOME NECESSARY.
.TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT OF NORTHWEST ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND
THE PRONOUNCED UPPER RIDGE BUILDING THROUGH THE PLAINS. LARGE
SURFACE HIGH LOOKS TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH
&&
.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...COMING SOON.
&&
.MARINE...COMING SOON.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ643>646.
&&
$$
TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...COLLAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1143 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 930 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014
FRONTOGENETICALLY DRIVEN RAIN CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE FORECAST
AREA...HOWEVER...THE CORRIDOR OF STRONGEST F-GEN HAS SHIFTED WEST
AND EXTENDS FROM NEAR EAU CLAIRE TO ROCHESTER AND MASON CITY.
MEANWHILE...A DRY SLOT IN THE REFLECTIVITY AND EVEN IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY IS NOTED OVER WESTERN ILLINOIS INTO SOUTHERN WI...MOSTLY
JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
13.18Z GFS AND 14.00Z HRRR MODELS GENERALLY SEEM TO HAVE THE BEST
HANDLE ON THE FARTHER WEST TREND TO THE STRONGEST F-GEN
CURRENTLY...AND HAVE ADJUSTED QPF TOWARDS THEM FOR THE ENTIRE
NIGHT. THE RESULT WAS A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT UPWARD ADJUSTMENT TO
QPF FOR 06-12Z ALONG/WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. APPEARS DURING
THIS PERIOD THE STRONGER F-GEN BAND WILL MAKE ITS WAY BACK
EASTWARD A BIT AS THE UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS TO OUR SOUTH CONTINUE
THEIR SLOW MARCH NORTHEASTWARD.
INTERESTINGLY...HEADING INTO TUESDAY...THE 13.18Z GFS STALLS THE
F-GEN BAND PRETTY MUCH OVER LA CROSSE AND WINONA ALL DAY WHILE
WEAKENING IT. IF THIS OCCURS...THE QPF FORECASTS NEED TO GO UP
SOME FOR TUESDAY AS WELL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014
FORECAST CHALLENGES INCLUDE RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND THE SPEED IN
WHICH THE CURRENT SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE REGION. 13.12Z GFS/ECMWF
NAM/GEM HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 15.12Z...BUT THEN
DIVERGE SOMEWHAT WITH HOW QUICKLY RAIN ENDS BY MID-WEEK. THE
NAM/GEM ARE MOST PROGRESSIVE WHEREAS THE ECMWF IS SLOWEST AND THE
GFS SOMEWHERE IN-BETWEEN. WILL FOLLOW A GFS/ECMWF BLENDED SOLUTION
FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
13.20Z REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS A SWATH OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
STRETCHING ACROSS MOST OF IA INTO NORTHERN IL AND SOUTHERN WI.
THIS RAIN WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
AS SURFACE LOW DRIFTS SLOWLY ACROSS MO AND THEN STALLS OUT ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL IL BY TOMORROW. STRONG MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ALONG
TROUGH AXIS COMBINED WITH PWATS FROM 1.0 TO 1.5 INCHES WILL
PRODUCE PERIODS OF MODERATE TO EVEN HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH THE
NIGHT. WITH UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS ACROSS IA SHOWING RATES OF 0.10
TO 0.20 INCHES PER HOUR...OVERNIGHT TOTALS FROM 0.25 INCHES ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST TO OVER AN INCH ACROSS THE EAST/SOUTHEAST ARE
LIKELY. RAINFALL WILL EXTEND OVER SEVERAL HOURS AND WITH RECENT
DRY WEATHER...FLOODING IS NOT A CONCERN. WINDS TONIGHT WILL SHIFT
TO THE NORTH WITH INCREASING GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. WITH 100 PERCENT
CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL SLOWLY OR REMAIN STEADY...
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
FORCING SLOWLY DECREASES ON TUESDAY...BUT WITH THE STALLED LOW
FILLING-IN ACROSS IL AND AMPLE MOISTURE...EXPECT PERIODS OF LIGHT
RAIN THROUGH THE DAY. RAIN WILL SLOWLY DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. UP TO AN ADDITIONAL QUARTER OF AN INCH IS
POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY...BUT
IT WILL BE MUCH MORE WINDY WITH FREQUENT NORTHERLY GUSTS FROM 20
TO 30 MPH.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014
SURFACE LOW FINALLY MOVES INTO CENTRAL IN BY MID-DAY ON WEDNESDAY.
GFS/NAM/GEM DRY OUT THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY 16.00Z...BUT THE
ECMWF CONTINUES TO HOLD ONTO SOME LOW QPF ACROSS THE FAR EAST.
WILL HONOR THIS WITH 20 TO 30 POPS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MAINLY ACROSS
WESTERN WI...BUT ALSO CLIPPING EXTREME NORTHEAST IA AND SOUTHEAST
MN. CLOUD COVER WILL BE VERY SLOW TO MOVE OUT...BUT COULD SEE SOME
PEAKS OF SUN ALLOWING AFTERNOON HIGHS TO RISE A DEGREE OR TWO
COMPARED TO TUESDAY.
THURSDAY LIKELY TO BE DRY ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO LINGER
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN WI. WILL CONTINUE
20 POPS FOR THESE AREAS. ASSUMING CLOUDS BREAK-UP A BIT...THURSDAY
WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH QUICK-MOVING THERMAL
RIDGE MOVING OVERHEAD IN FRONT OF THE NEXT WAVE ALOFT. EXPECT
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GFS
KEEPS PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT THE ECMWF/
GEM ARE FARTHER SOUTH. BEST CHANCES APPEAR TO BE ACROSS TAYLOR/
CLARK COUNTIES...SO WILL KEEP 20 POPS CONFINED TO THIS AREA
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN MOSTLY
DRY CONDITIONS WITH DAILY HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S TO
LOWER 40S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014
BOTH TAF SITES CONTINUE TO BE IMPACTED BY RAIN AND A MVFR/IFR STRATUS
DECK...ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY LIFTING
NORTHEAST THROUGH NORTHERN ILLINOIS. THE LOWEST CEILINGS PERSIST
AT RST BUT HAVE BEEN SLOWLY CLIMBING. ADDITIONALLY...THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT HAS TIGHTENED UP RESULTING IN 10-15 KT WINDS...WITH GUSTS
OF 25 KT AT RST. CONDITIONS LOOK TO STAY STATUS QUO EARLY THIS
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A RISE TO MVFR AT RST FOR CEILING HEIGHTS
AT 12Z AS DRIER AIR TRIES TO FILTER IN. BOTH SITES ARE LIKELY TO
SEE THE WINDS AND GUSTS TO INCREASE SOME DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS
AS THE GRADIENT GETS A LITTLE TIGHTER. FURTHER IMPROVEMENT IN
CEILINGS AND DIMINISHING OF THE RAIN IS EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...STARTING FIRST AT RST...AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES A LITTLE FURTHER AWAY FROM THE TAF SITES. LOOK FOR WIND
GUSTS TO DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
HOWEVER...AT LSE WHERE THE VALLEY CAN AID IN DIMINISHING WINDS
NEAR THE GROUND MORE...HAVE INTRODUCED LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WITH
40-50 KT WINDS FORECAST TO PERSIST NEAR 2000 FT.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS
AVIATION...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
157 AM EDT THU OCT 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION
OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS FRONT WILL PROVIDE SHOWERS FOR
EVERYONE...SOME AREA POSSIBLY RECEIVING A THUNDERSTORM WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. IT WILL TURN SLIGHTLY COOLER
BEHIND THIS FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHOWERS LATER ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY MUCH
COOLER WEATHER FOR SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1256 AM EDT...AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN THAT WERE IMPACTING
HERKIMER COUNTY EARLIER THIS EVENING HAVE DISSIPATED. BANDS OF
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED HEAVY RAINFALL HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
CATSKILLS...HUDSON VALLEY AND TACONICS AND ARE RAPIDLY PROGRESSING
NORTHWARD. BASED ON UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS AROUND ONE TO TWO THIRDS
OF AN INCH OF RAIN WILL OCCUR WITH THIS BATCH OF SHOWERS. BASED ON
REGION RADARS IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL GET A BRIEF BREAK EARLY THIS
MORNING...BEFORE ADDITIONAL RE-DEVELOPMENT OCCURS AS THE LOW LEVEL
JET APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH AND THE OCCLUDED BOUNDARY
APPROACHES...WHICH WILL FOCUS ADDITIONAL RAINBANDS WITH EMBEDDED
HEAVY RAINFALL. HI RES MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR AND LOCAL WRF
INDICATING COVERAGE WILL INCREASE IN THE 11Z-13Z TIME FRAME ACROSS
OUR AREA. NO CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING HAS BEEN OBSERVED ALTHOUGH
A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT SO WILL MENTION
ISOLATED THUNDER.
THE TEMPERATURE HAS NOT DROPPED BELOW 70 FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS AT
ALBANY...WHICH RESULTS IN A NEW RECORD WARM MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
FOR THE DATE. THE OLD RECORD WARM MINIMUM OF 66 DEGREES WAS SET
IN 1954. IT COULD ALSO TIE FOR WARMEST OVERNIGHT LOW FOR ANY
OCTOBER...THAT WAS SET BACK ON THE MORNING OF OCTOBER 5TH
1929...ALSO 70 DEGREES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES DURING THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT OVER EASTERN NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY PUSH
THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST WHICH WILL PROVIDE THE LOW LEVEL FOCUS FOR
SEVERAL BANDS OF RAIN TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. MOST SOURCES OF MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THESE LARGE
SCALE FEATURES BUT AS USUAL THERE ARE VARIATIONS IN QPF AMOUNTS WITH
THE 12Z CMC OFFERING THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS...AND THE OVERALL THE 12Z
GFS THE LOWEST (AT LEAST IN THE HUDSON VALLEY).
USUALLY WITH A SSE FLOW UP TO 40-50KTS (AT THE H850 LEVEL) THE
CATSKILLS RECEIVE THE MOST RAINFALL...AND THE TACONICS/BERKSHIRES
AND SOUTHERN GREENS A CLOSE SECOND. PWATS ARE FORECAST TO REACH
AROUND 1.5 INCHES EARLY ON THURSDAY.
WE FIGURE ON A GENERAL 1-2+ INCHES OF RAINFALL WITH THIS
SYSTEM...BUT THERE COULD LOCALLY MORE (MAYBE UP TO 3 INCHES) SHOULD
ANY THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.
THE RAIN COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES...AS ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS ARE
FORECAST TO BE +3 TO +4 STDEV ALONG WITH A 850 MB SOUTHERLY WIND
ANOMALIES OF +2 TO +3 STDEV TRANSPORTING ATLANTIC MOISTURE POLEWARD
INTO THE REGION. THE LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SOMEWHAT AS
IT TRAVERSES OUR REGION...BUT STILL STRONG ENOUGH TO RESULT IN HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL.
DUE TO ANTECEDENT DRY GROUND CONDITIONS...OTHER THAN PONDING OF
WATER DUE TO CLOGGED STORM DRAINS...WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE
NOT ANTICIPATED. PLEASE REFER TO HYDRO SECTION FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES FOR SOME EMBEDDED
CONVECTION/THUNDER...ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY AS TEMPS ALOFT START TO
DECREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LOW MOVING CLOSER. THIS WILL TEND
TO STEEPEN MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ENOUGH FOR ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO
DEVELOP. HAVE CONTINUED TO MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING...INCREASING TO CHANCE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
EMBEDDED DOWNPOURS WILL BE LIKELY WITH ANY ENHANCED CONVECTION.
THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST OF OUR REGION TO
INTERIOR AND COASTAL NEW ENGLAND BY LATE THURSDAY. SOME LEFTOVER
LIGHT SHOWERS WILL STILL BE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF THE NIGHT AND FOR AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION
AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH. SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH OF ALBANY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY...AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL DESPITE THE
RAINFALL...AS WE WILL BE IN THE WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS UNTIL THE
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN ON FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY DUE TO DEEPER
MIXING AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...BUT HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE
NOTICEABLY LOWER.
HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE 70-75 HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD...60S FURTHER
WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE 50S THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGHS
FRIDAY WILL BE AROUND 70 IN THE VALLEYS...60S HIGHER TERRAIN. FRIDAY
NIGHT LOWS WILL BE AROUND 50. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE 60-65 IN THE
VALLEYS...50S HIGHER TERRAIN...CLOSER TO NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A NE STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE TRANSLATING ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CONUS SAT NT-SUN...WITH ANOTHER ONE POTENTIALLY IMPACTING
THE REGION FOR TUE NT AND BEYOND. OVERALL...EXPECT BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD...WITH PRECIP NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK/EVOLUTION OF ANY POTENTIAL CLOSED
LOW FOR WED...WHICH IF THE 12Z/15 ECMWF PROVES CORRECT...COULD
RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL PRECIP.
SOME SPECIFICS...
SAT NT-SUN NT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/COLD POOL WILL BE TRANSLATING
ACROSS THE REGION. OVERALL MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...BUT THE
DEVELOPING LAKE/AIR DIFFERENTIAL IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE MAY
TRIGGER SOME LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SHOWERS...ESP ON SUNDAY. WITH
COOLING 850-700 MB TEMPS INTO THE -5C TO -10C RANGE...IT APPEARS
THAT SOME OF THESE SHOWERS MAY CHANGE TO SNOW...OR MIX WITH
SNOW/GRAUPEL ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...WITH PERHAPS A BIT OF WET SNOW/GRAUPEL EVEN OCCURRING
IN ANY TALLER SHOWER ELEMENTS IN LOWER ELEVATIONS. MOST OF THESE
SHOWERS SHOULD BE FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND POINTS N AND W...AS
WELL AS ACROSS SOUTHERN VT. IT WILL BECOME QUITE BLUSTERY DURING
SUNDAY...WITH MAX TEMPS ONLY REACHING THE LOWER/MID 50S IN VALLEY
AREAS S AND E OF ALBANY...AND 40S TO THE N AND W...WITH HIGHER
TERRAIN ONLY REACHING THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER/MID 40S. SAT NT/SUN AM
SHOULD FALL INTO THE 30S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND LOWER/MID 40S
ACROSS VALLEY AREAS. FOR SUN NT/MON AM...TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
30S IN MOST AREAS...WITH 20S ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS
AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CATSKILLS AND SOUTHERN VT/NW MA. ANY
REMAINING ZONES WHERE THE GROWING SEASON REMAINS IN TACT MAY HAVE A
FROST/FREEZE AND END TO THE GROWING SEASON FOR SUN NT/MON AM.
MON-WED...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SHOULD BUILD IN FOR MON-MON
NT...BEFORE ANOTHER POTENT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM DIGS ACROSS
SOUTHERN/EASTERN CANADA. 12Z/ECMWF IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS
FEATURE...WITH SOME SIGNALS ALSO DEPICTED IN THE MEAN 500 MB PATTERN
IN THE 12Z/GEFS. WILL INDICATE SOME SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR
TUE-WED...ALTHOUGH AGAIN...SHOULD THE TREND OF THE ECMWF AND GEFS
PROVE CORRECT...A MUCH MORE SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION EVENT COULD
UNFOLD ACROSS THE REGION...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE IN THE FORM OF WET
SNOW ACROSS AT LEAST HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...WITH MAINLY 40S ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN...AND LOWER/MID 50S IN VALLEYS FOR MAX TEMPS...AND OVERNIGHT
MINS MAINLY IN THE 30S IN VALLEYS AND 20S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
AGAIN...SHOULD THE TREND IN ECMWF/GEFS PROVE CORRECT...MUCH COOLER
MAX TEMPS COULD OCCUR FOR TUE-WED...WITH 40S IN VALLEYS AND 30S FOR
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WHILE OVERNIGHT MINS REMAIN A BIT WARMER.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LARGE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. ITS ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
STREAM NORTHWARD IN ADVANCE OF BOUNDARY AND LOW. HOWEVER AS THE
LOW LEVEL JET MOVES INTO THE REGION TOWARD SUNRISE THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL PICK UP IN INTENSITY JUST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AS
IT PUSHES THROUGH. CAN NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY FOR A
THUNDERSTORM...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDED
MENTION IN TAFS. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE OCCLUDED BOUNDARY THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DECREASES RAPIDLY.
OVERALL EXPECTING MVFR CONDITIONS WITH IFR IN HEAVIER SHOWERS
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR FOR A PERIOD IN
THE EVENING HOWEVER SOME FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.
EAST TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. HAVE
ADDED LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN TAFS AS THE LOW LEVEL JET MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION. SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST IN THE
EVENING AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA ESPECIALLY IN THE PM.
SAT NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUN: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. ISOLATED SHRA.
SUN NIGHT-MON: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS ARE ON THE WAY...TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ALL AREAS LOOK TO
RECEIVE A QUARTER INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL...SOME AREA MAYBE UP TO
TWO INCHES (MAINLY THE SOUTHERN CATSKILLS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY).
A FEW SHOWERS MIGHT LINGER...MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF ALBANY...
THURSDAY NIGHT. MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH SOME SUNSHINE EXPECTED
FRIDAY BUT A STRAY SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
WE WENT AHEAD AND ASSIGNED A WET FLAG TO ALL OF OUR NFDRS TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY.
RH VALUES WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...COMING DOWN TO
THE 50S BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR MOVES BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
WINDS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY WILL BE MAINLY SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 TO 15
MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS. THE WIND WILL BE BECOME MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY 5 TO 15 MPH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
LOCALLY AT ALBANY...ONLY 0.60 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN IN THE PAST
MONTH! SOME AREAS HAVE SEEN EVEN A LITTLE LESS.
A SOAKING RAINFALL IS LIKELY TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS SEVERAL BANDS
OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MOVES THROUGH. IT LOOKS AS IF
MOST AREAS SHOULD END UP WITH 1-2+ INCHES OF RAINFALL...HEAVIEST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CATSKILLS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY AND OF COURSE
ANYWHERE WHERE THUNDERSTORMS MIGHT MATERIALIZE.
PONDING OF WATER IS LIKELY WHERE LEAVES CLOG DRAINS. OTHERWISE...DUE
TO THE DRY WEATHER PRODUCING UNUSUALLY LOW WATER LEVELS...FLOODING
IS NOT EXPECTED. SOME RIVERS AND STREAMS MIGHT SEE SIGNIFICANT
WITHIN BANKFULL RISES.
LIGHT SHOWERS MIGHT LINGER ON A SCATTERED BASIS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY BUT THESE WOULD HAVE NO FURTHER IMPACT ON OUR WATERSHEDS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/GJM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/GJM/JPV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV/JPV
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1256 AM EDT THU OCT 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION
OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS FRONT WILL PROVIDE SHOWERS FOR
EVERYONE...SOME AREA POSSIBLY RECEIVING A THUNDERSTORM WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. IT WILL TURN SLIGHTLY COOLER
BEHIND THIS FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHOWERS LATER ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY MUCH
COOLER WEATHER FOR SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1256 AM EDT...AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN THAT WERE IMPACTING
HERKIMER COUNTY EARLIER THIS EVENING HAVE DISSIPATED. BANDS OF
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED HEAVY RAINFALL HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
CATSKILLS...HUDSON VALLEY AND TACONICS AND ARE RAPIDLY PROGRESSING
NORTHWARD. BASED ON UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS AROUND ONE TO TWO THIRDS
OF AN INCH OF RAIN WILL OCCUR WITH THIS BATCH OF SHOWERS. BASED ON
REGION RADARS IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL GET A BRIEF BREAK EARLY THIS
MORNING...BEFORE ADDITIONAL RE-DEVELOPMENT OCCURS AS THE LOW LEVEL
JET APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH AND THE OCCLUDED BOUNDARY
APPROACHES...WHICH WILL FOCUS ADDITIONAL RAINBANDS WITH EMBEDDED
HEAVY RAINFALL. HI RES MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR AND LOCAL WRF
INDICATING COVERAGE WILL INCREASE IN THE 11Z-13Z TIME FRAME ACROSS
OUR AREA. NO CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING HAS BEEN OBSERVED ALTHOUGH
A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT SO WILL MENTION
ISOLATED THUNDER.
THE TEMPERATURE HAS NOT DROPPED BELOW 70 FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS AT
ALBANY...WHICH RESULTS IN A NEW RECORD WARM MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
FOR THE DATE. THE OLD RECORD WARM MINIMUM OF 66 DEGREES WAS SET
IN 1954. IT COULD ALSO TIE FOR WARMEST OVERNIGHT LOW FOR ANY
OCTOBER...THAT WAS SET BACK ON THE MORNING OF OCTOBER 5TH
1929...ALSO 70 DEGREES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES DURING THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT OVER EASTERN NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY PUSH
THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST WHICH WILL PROVIDE THE LOW LEVEL FOCUS FOR
SEVERAL BANDS OF RAIN TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. MOST SOURCES OF MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THESE LARGE
SCALE FEATURES BUT AS USUAL THERE ARE VARIATIONS IN QPF AMOUNTS WITH
THE 12Z CMC OFFERING THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS...AND THE OVERALL THE 12Z
GFS THE LOWEST (AT LEAST IN THE HUDSON VALLEY).
USUALLY WITH A SSE FLOW UP TO 40-50KTS (AT THE H850 LEVEL) THE
CATSKILLS RECEIVE THE MOST RAINFALL...AND THE TACONICS/BERKSHIRES
AND SOUTHERN GREENS A CLOSE SECOND. PWATS ARE FORECAST TO REACH
AROUND 1.5 INCHES EARLY ON THURSDAY.
WE FIGURE ON A GENERAL 1-2+ INCHES OF RAINFALL WITH THIS
SYSTEM...BUT THERE COULD LOCALLY MORE (MAYBE UP TO 3 INCHES) SHOULD
ANY THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.
THE RAIN COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES...AS ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS ARE
FORECAST TO BE +3 TO +4 STDEV ALONG WITH A 850 MB SOUTHERLY WIND
ANOMALIES OF +2 TO +3 STDEV TRANSPORTING ATLANTIC MOISTURE POLEWARD
INTO THE REGION. THE LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SOMEWHAT AS
IT TRAVERSES OUR REGION...BUT STILL STRONG ENOUGH TO RESULT IN HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL.
DUE TO ANTECEDENT DRY GROUND CONDITIONS...OTHER THAN PONDING OF
WATER DUE TO CLOGGED STORM DRAINS...WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE
NOT ANTICIPATED. PLEASE REFER TO HYDRO SECTION FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES FOR SOME EMBEDDED
CONVECTION/THUNDER...ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY AS TEMPS ALOFT START TO
DECREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LOW MOVING CLOSER. THIS WILL TEND
TO STEEPEN MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ENOUGH FOR ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO
DEVELOP. HAVE CONTINUED TO MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING...INCREASING TO CHANCE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
EMBEDDED DOWNPOURS WILL BE LIKELY WITH ANY ENHANCED CONVECTION.
THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST OF OUR REGION TO
INTERIOR AND COASTAL NEW ENGLAND BY LATE THURSDAY. SOME LEFTOVER
LIGHT SHOWERS WILL STILL BE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF THE NIGHT AND FOR AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION
AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH. SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH OF ALBANY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY...AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL DESPITE THE
RAINFALL...AS WE WILL BE IN THE WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS UNTIL THE
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN ON FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY DUE TO DEEPER
MIXING AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...BUT HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE
NOTICEABLY LOWER.
HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE 70-75 HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD...60S FURTHER
WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE 50S THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGHS
FRIDAY WILL BE AROUND 70 IN THE VALLEYS...60S HIGHER TERRAIN. FRIDAY
NIGHT LOWS WILL BE AROUND 50. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE 60-65 IN THE
VALLEYS...50S HIGHER TERRAIN...CLOSER TO NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A NE STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE TRANSLATING ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CONUS SAT NT-SUN...WITH ANOTHER ONE POTENTIALLY IMPACTING
THE REGION FOR TUE NT AND BEYOND. OVERALL...EXPECT BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD...WITH PRECIP NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK/EVOLUTION OF ANY POTENTIAL CLOSED
LOW FOR WED...WHICH IF THE 12Z/15 ECMWF PROVES CORRECT...COULD
RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL PRECIP.
SOME SPECIFICS...
SAT NT-SUN NT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/COLD POOL WILL BE TRANSLATING
ACROSS THE REGION. OVERALL MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...BUT THE
DEVELOPING LAKE/AIR DIFFERENTIAL IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE MAY
TRIGGER SOME LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SHOWERS...ESP ON SUNDAY. WITH
COOLING 850-700 MB TEMPS INTO THE -5C TO -10C RANGE...IT APPEARS
THAT SOME OF THESE SHOWERS MAY CHANGE TO SNOW...OR MIX WITH
SNOW/GRAUPEL ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...WITH PERHAPS A BIT OF WET SNOW/GRAUPEL EVEN OCCURRING
IN ANY TALLER SHOWER ELEMENTS IN LOWER ELEVATIONS. MOST OF THESE
SHOWERS SHOULD BE FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND POINTS N AND W...AS
WELL AS ACROSS SOUTHERN VT. IT WILL BECOME QUITE BLUSTERY DURING
SUNDAY...WITH MAX TEMPS ONLY REACHING THE LOWER/MID 50S IN VALLEY
AREAS S AND E OF ALBANY...AND 40S TO THE N AND W...WITH HIGHER
TERRAIN ONLY REACHING THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER/MID 40S. SAT NT/SUN AM
SHOULD FALL INTO THE 30S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND LOWER/MID 40S
ACROSS VALLEY AREAS. FOR SUN NT/MON AM...TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
30S IN MOST AREAS...WITH 20S ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS
AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CATSKILLS AND SOUTHERN VT/NW MA. ANY
REMAINING ZONES WHERE THE GROWING SEASON REMAINS IN TACT MAY HAVE A
FROST/FREEZE AND END TO THE GROWING SEASON FOR SUN NT/MON AM.
MON-WED...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SHOULD BUILD IN FOR MON-MON
NT...BEFORE ANOTHER POTENT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM DIGS ACROSS
SOUTHERN/EASTERN CANADA. 12Z/ECMWF IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS
FEATURE...WITH SOME SIGNALS ALSO DEPICTED IN THE MEAN 500 MB PATTERN
IN THE 12Z/GEFS. WILL INDICATE SOME SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR
TUE-WED...ALTHOUGH AGAIN...SHOULD THE TREND OF THE ECMWF AND GEFS
PROVE CORRECT...A MUCH MORE SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION EVENT COULD
UNFOLD ACROSS THE REGION...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE IN THE FORM OF WET
SNOW ACROSS AT LEAST HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...WITH MAINLY 40S ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN...AND LOWER/MID 50S IN VALLEYS FOR MAX TEMPS...AND OVERNIGHT
MINS MAINLY IN THE 30S IN VALLEYS AND 20S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
AGAIN...SHOULD THE TREND IN ECMWF/GEFS PROVE CORRECT...MUCH COOLER
MAX TEMPS COULD OCCUR FOR TUE-WED...WITH 40S IN VALLEYS AND 30S FOR
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WHILE OVERNIGHT MINS REMAIN A BIT WARMER.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...AS A SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATER TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES LATE
THU MORNING OR EARLY THU AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES THROUGH AROUND
MIDNIGHT...WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS CONTINUING INTO LATE THURSDAY
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. AS OF 16/00Z...CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
TAF SITES WAS VFR/MVFR...WHICH SHOULD LOWER TO MVFR/IFR LATER
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD
SLOWLY IMPROVE THURSDAY AFTERNOON TO VFR/OCCASIONAL MVFR.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BE 5 TO 10 KTS...WITH SOME GUSTS TO 15 KTS
AT KALB/KPSF...BUT BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY ON THURSDAY.
OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SHRA MAINLY IN THE EVNG.
FRI: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRI NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT NIGHT-SUN: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS ARE ON THE WAY...TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ALL AREAS LOOK TO
RECEIVE A QUARTER INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL...SOME AREA MAYBE UP TO
TWO INCHES (MAINLY THE SOUTHERN CATSKILLS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY).
A FEW SHOWERS MIGHT LINGER...MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF ALBANY...
THURSDAY NIGHT. MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH SOME SUNSHINE EXPECTED
FRIDAY BUT A STRAY SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
WE WENT AHEAD AND ASSIGNED A WET FLAG TO ALL OF OUR NFDRS TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY.
RH VALUES WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...COMING DOWN TO
THE 50S BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR MOVES BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
WINDS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY WILL BE MAINLY SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 TO 15
MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS. THE WIND WILL BE BECOME MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY 5 TO 15 MPH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
LOCALLY AT ALBANY...ONLY 0.60 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN IN THE PAST
MONTH! SOME AREAS HAVE SEEN EVEN A LITTLE LESS.
A SOAKING RAINFALL IS LIKELY TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS SEVERAL BANDS
OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MOVES THROUGH. IT LOOKS AS IF
MOST AREAS SHOULD END UP WITH 1-2+ INCHES OF RAINFALL...HEAVIEST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CATSKILLS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY AND OF COURSE
ANYWHERE WHERE THUNDERSTORMS MIGHT MATERIALIZE.
PONDING OF WATER IS LIKELY WHERE LEAVES CLOG DRAINS. OTHERWISE...DUE
TO THE DRY WEATHER PRODUCING UNUSUALLY LOW WATER LEVELS...FLOODING
IS NOT EXPECTED. SOME RIVERS AND STREAMS MIGHT SEE SIGNIFICANT
WITHIN BANKFULL RISES.
LIGHT SHOWERS MIGHT LINGER ON A SCATTERED BASIS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY BUT THESE WOULD HAVE NO FURTHER IMPACT ON OUR WATERSHEDS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/GJM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/GJM/JPV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV/JPV
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
341 AM CDT THU OCT 16 2014
.DISCUSSION...
340 AM CDT
EARLY MORNING GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS OUR OLD UPPER
SPINNING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION OVER WISCONSIN AND ILLINOIS. SHEARED
OUT SHORT WAVE ENERGY/VORTICITY CHANNEL RUNNING NORTH-SOUTH
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE
WITHIN THE MOIST LOW-MID LEVEL ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION... THOUGH THIS LIGHT/SPOTTY PRECIP SHOULD MOVE
OFF TO THE EAST THIS MORNING WITH THE CONTINUED EASTWARD DRIFT OF
THE UPPER TROUGH. CLEARING LINE OVER FAR WESTERN IL/WI EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL ALSO MOVE SLOWLY EAST...WITH LOW CLOUD COVER EXPECTED
TO ERODE OVER NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS DURING THE MORNING AND ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF NORTHERN IL BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH SUBSIDENCE IN
REGION OF RISING HEIGHTS AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE UPPER RIDGE WHICH
MOVES INTO THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. GRADIENT IN CLOUD
COVERAGE WILL MAKE FOR A CONTRAST IN TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CWA
TODAY...WITH WESTERN AREAS WARMING INTO THE MID 60S WITH
CONSIDERABLE SUN WHILE EASTERN AREAS THAT ARE LAST TO CLEAR TOP
OUT AROUND 60.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS QUICKLY TO ANOTHER STRONG SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY
MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THIS MORNING. THIS WAVE IS ALSO
PROGGED CLOSE OFF IN THE MID-LEVELS AS IT TRACKS EAST ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER TODAY...BEFORE DIGGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AND CARVING OUT A LARGE LONG-WAVE
TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA AS THIS SYSTEM COMBINES WITH AND
NEARLY FUJI-WARAS WITH OLD CLOSED LOW TO OUR EAST. SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE DAKOTAS IN RESPONSE TO THIS SECOND WAVE WILL
MOVE TO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH A PACIFIC
COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA VERY EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. THE AIR MASS BEHIND THIS FRONT IS NOT SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER
THAN THE ONE CURRENTLY OVER THE MIDWEST...THUS TEMPS FRIDAY EXPECTED
TO AGAIN BE IN THE LOW-MID 60S WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS NEAR 30 MPH.
THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TOWARD
EVENING...WITH A SECONDARY PUSH OF COOLER AIR AS SURFACE WINDS SHIFT
NORTHWEST FRIDAY EVENING. WHILE A FEW SPRINKLES CANNOT BE RULED OUT
IN COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THIS SECONDARY FRONT FRIDAY EVENING...THE
BEST ORGANIZED FORCING FOR DEEPER LIFT AND MORE ORGANIZED PRECIP
PRODUCTION WILL REMAIN MAINLY NORTH/EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE STRONG SHORT WAVE AND EVOLVING LONG-WAVE TROUGH AXIS ARE OFF TO
THE EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING...THOUGH GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN BRINGING ANOTHER QUICK MOVING LOWER AMPLITUDE SHORT
WAVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY. WHILE THIS MAY KEEP
CLOUD COVER ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...THE
GREATEST THREAT OF SHOWERS AGAIN REMAINS OVER THE LAKE AND ACROSS
AREAS EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE CWA. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE IN
STORE BEHIND FRIDAY EVENINGS SECONDARY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS BACK IN THE LOW-MID 50S SATURDAY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SPREADS INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY TO OUR EAST...SETTING THE STAGE FOR
CLEARING SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND COLD OVERNIGHT TEMPS. CURRENT
INDICATIONS ARE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY DROP TO AROUND THE
FREEZING MARK ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST IL AWAY
FROM THE CHICAGO HEAT ISLAND BY SUNDAY MORNING. A GOOD FROST IS
LIKELY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING CONDITIONS IN SOME SPOTS.
THE SURFACE HIGH THEN MOVES EAST DURING THE DAY AS UPPER FLOW
PATTERN REMAINS VERY PROGRESSIVE...WITH WINDS SHIFTING SOUTH BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT DIGGING SHORT WAVE WHICH IS
PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. ONCE AGAIN DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING AND
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS LIMITED...THOUGH STRONGER FORCING IS A LITTLE
FURTHER SOUTH WITH THIS SYSTEM THAN THOSE EARLIER IN THE WEEKEND.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LAKES BY MONDAY
EVENING WITH THE COLD FRONT CLEARING THE CWA BY MONDAY NIGHT.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEPICT A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF NORTH AMERICA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
OUR MONDAY SYSTEM CLOSES OFF OVER THE EAST COAST. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS SLOWLY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DURING THIS TIME...
WITH A PERIOD OF QUIET/DRY WEATHER THROUGH MID-WEEK. NORTHEAST-EAST
LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH MAY LIMIT OUR WARMING BENEATH
THE UPPER RIDGE...THOUGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AT LEAST RETURN TO LATE
OCTOBER NORMALS OR A LITTLE BETTER.
RATZER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 09Z...
* IFR/LIFR CIGS AND LOW VSBY THROUGH MID MORNING...THEN GRADUALLY
IMPROVING CIGS INTO THE AFTERNOON.
KJB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
LOW IFR TO LIFR CIGS...FOG AND SOME OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE CAN BE
EXPECTED FOR REST OF THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BACK WEST-NORTHWESTERLY DURING THE MORNING TODAY...THEN
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER THE REGION. AS THIS OCCURS...CIGS
SHOULD BE ON A GRADUAL IMPROVING TREND THROUGH THE DAY AS THE VERY
LOW CLOUDS GET PUSHED OUT OF THE AREA. WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION BY EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO PRODUCE SOME STRONG GUSTY WESTERLY
WINDS ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
KJB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 09Z...
* MEDIUM WITH CIG TRENDS TODAY.
* HIGH WITH ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.
KJB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
* FRIDAY...DRY/VFR. STRONG/GUSTY WEST WINDS.
* SATURDAY...DRY/VFR. STRONG/GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.
* SUNDAY...DRY/VFR.
* MONDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
* TUESDAY...DRY/VFR. NE WINDS.
KMD
&&
.MARINE...
148 AM CDT
WINDS ACROSS THE LAKE WILL BACK WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY AND REMAIN AROUND
10 KT DURING THE DAY TODAY AS A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OVER THE WESTERN LAKES. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A FAIRLY QUIET
WEATHER DAY OVER THE LAKE TODAY.
THE NEXT WEATHER EVENT OF INCREASING INTEREST IS THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER NORTH DAKOTA. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT
EASTWARD ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BOARDER TODAY AND APPROACH LAKE
SUPERIOR BY LATE TONIGHT. FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO MERGE THIS LOW
WITH ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO BY
FRIDAY...THEN DEEPEN THE LOW TO AROUND 29.1 INCHES AS IT SHIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN QUEBEC LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS WEATHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO RESULT IN INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS UP
IN THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE OVER THE LAKE ON FRIDAY. A STRONG COLD
FRONT LOOKS TO SHIFT OVER THE LAKE LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...LIKELY RESULTING IN A NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHIFT...WITH EVEN
STRONGER SPEEDS. GALE FORCE WINDS OF 35 TO 40 KT APPEAR PROBABLE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE LAKE FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY BEFORE THE
WINDS BEGIN ABATING.
FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OVER THE WESTERN
LAKES REGION BY SUNDAY...RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF LIGHTER WINDS.
HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THE WINDS COULD INCREASE A BIT OVER THE LAKE
AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM SHIFTS
OVER THE WESTERN LAKES REGION. THIS APPEARS TO BE A WEAKER SYSTEM AT
THIS POINT...THUS GALE FORCE WINDS APPEAR UNLIKELY WITH THIS
EVENT.
KJB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...GALE WATCH...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-LMZ567-
LMZ868...7 PM FRIDAY TO 7 PM SATURDAY.
GALE WATCH...LMZ080-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-
LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...7 PM FRIDAY TO 3 PM
SATURDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
336 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2014
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT THU OCT 16 2014
Deep upper low over Ohio this morning, keeping cloud cover all the
way back into Illinois under northerly/cyclonic flow. Back edge to
the clouds pretty distinct this morning to the west, just east of
the Mississippi River Valley. Weak ridging moving out of the
Plains, but the cut off low is very slow to move out of the region
until the kicker moves in. Said wave is over Montana this morning
and slated to move in late tonight, though the upper low will begin
its easterly drift today. Very slow in going anywhere, the big
question for today is the timing of the back edge/clearing.
850mb-700mb moisture profiles pretty similar btwn GFS and NAM...with
the HRRR also slow to clear today. Most of the CWA remains under
cloudy skies this morning...slowly clearing the western half of the
state by mid day. As a result, cooler in the east.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT THU OCT 16 2014
With the upper low moving out today and tonight...northwesterly flow
briefly kicks in...with kicker wave diving into the larger scale
trof and spinning around the exiting system. New wave bringing a
weak sfc boundary that is barely a shift of winds. Cold front
expected to pass with little notice on Friday. However weak, an
increasing pressure gradient at the surface and some higher winds
aloft will result in a breezy day with 20mph winds in the northern
half of the state sustained...gusting 25-30. Ridge builds in for the
weekend and the forecast remains dry with highs in the 50s and a
chilly Sunday morning. Next chance for precip very small and in
response to another wave moving into the Upper Midwest late
Sunday/Monday. In fact, the ECMWF is the only model persistent with
this feature actually pushing any QPF. The GFS has the wave, but
remains dry this far south. Weak southerly flow and cloud cover
will make Sunday night a little warmer than Sat night. Better precip
chances will be further to the north, as the wave is running into a
weak ridge over the region. That being said, silent slight chances
on Sun night/Mon remain the only precip in the forecast. Sfc
ridging and slightly cooler than seasonal norms expected in the
remainder of the 7 day forecast.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT WED OCT 15 2014
Primary concern remains with coverage and timing of IFR/MVFR low
clouds over the next 12-18hrs. Light drizzle or sprinkles will
remain possible for the eastern terminals and periodic lifting
mechanisms rotate around the back side of the low. The deep low
pressure is making slow progress to the east, and some breaks in
the low clouds have developed in far western IL, including close
to SPI. Cloud cover should generally remain overcast at all
terminal sites through 15z, with SPI possibly seeing a brief break
in cloud cover between 06z and 10z. BMI has dipped to LIFR cloud
heights and could drop to VLIFR at 100FT for a time before
sunrise. Otherwise, IFR ceilings should prevail the rest of
tonight and to mid-morning on Thursday. After 15z, ceilings should
improve to MVFR across the board, with clearing beginning to
develop from west to east Thursday afternoon. All terminals should
see VFR conditions develop between 19z-23z.
Winds will be NW less than 10kt until after sunrise. Turbulent
mixing tomorrow could push sustained winds into the 10-12kt range,
as winds shift from NW to SW during the afternoon. Winds will
weaken below 10kt with sunset while remaining SW.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Shimon
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
1211 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2014
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1211 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2014
Updated aviation section only.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 221 PM CDT WED OCT 15 2014
Water vapor imagery shows deep low centered over west OH covering
much of the Great Lakes south to the southern Appalachians. Energy
aloft continues to move SSE within the backside flow. Light showers
and drizzle persisted across the area mainly east of the
Mississippi. Cross section depiction off the RAP showed moisture
depth up through 500mb over the KEVV tri-state (where IR shows
enhancement -15/-20C), tapering off to a narrow corridor h9/h8
around KPOF and KUNO. Will continue highest chance PoPs east, to
near nothing SEMO through the remainder of the afternoon and evening,
with a slow drop in PoPs from west to east with time, as the low
gradually moves east. Lows tonight, will hedge toward Raw Model
output (a degree or two above MOS), given clouds.
Gradual decreasing clouds from west to east expected Thursday as
the low slowly pulls away. Clouds may hang on and be slow to clear
KEVV tri-state and into the Pennyrile. Even central sections, once
some clearing takes place, may see diurnal development take over.
Despite a frontal passage Friday, quite weather is anticipated
given a very dry air mass Thursday night through Friday night.
Some clouds expected, but that`s it. Temps Thursday through Friday
night will be a blend of existing forecast numbers, the latest MOS
and Raw Model output.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 221 PM CDT WED OCT 15 2014
A dry and seasonably cool northwest flow pattern is expected during
the long term. Very little if any precipitation will occur...and
temps will average a few degrees cooler than usual for mid October.
On Saturday...a 500 mb shortwave trough will dig southeast across
the Ohio Valley. Little if any moisture will accompany this feature.
A cool northerly low level flow will become rather gusty ahead of
high pressure over the Plains.
By Sunday...the surface high will be nearly over the Ohio
Valley...ensuring a continuation of mainly clear and cool conditions.
Another 500 mb shortwave will dig southeast across the Ohio Valley
on Monday. There may be a few showers with this system. The 12z gfs
and gefs are drier than previous runs...so pops will be kept only in
the slight chance category.
On Tuesday into Wednesday...a deep layer ridge will become
established over or just west of the Mississippi Valley. A light
northeast wind flow will keep dry and cool conditions in place.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 1211 AM CDT THU OCT 16 2014
Blanket of low clouds continues to envelope parts of the region as
cool moist northwest winds persist around low pressure over the
middle Ohio Valley. A slow decrease in cig heights east of the MS
River will occur tonight. Some late night fog is possible at KCGI
when skies are clear, and also KPAH if there are some breaks in the
clouds. The KEVV/KOWB areas will likely experience IFR cigs much of
the night. Diurnal improvement will again start Thursday
morning...with VFR conditions at KCGI/KPAH, and MVFR cigs at
KEVV/KOWB through at least midday.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
512 AM EDT THU OCT 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER TODAY...THEN CROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE THE TIMING OF RAINFALL AND AMOUNTS.
06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTED A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE
CROWN OF MAINE FROM ABOUT CARIBOU BACK THROUGH ALLAGASH. NORTH OF
THE THIS BOUNDARY WAS TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND SOUTH OF THE
FRONT, TEMPERATURES WERE RUNNING IN THE 60S. LATEST RADAR SHOWED A
BATCH OF PRECIP(SHOWERS) MOVING ACROSS THE NWRN TIP OF MAINE
W/SOME VERY LIGHT RETURNS SHOWING UP FROM TO TIME SOUTH OF THIS
AREA DOWN INTO THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS. THE LATEST RAP AND
NAM SOUNDINGS CONFIRMED THIS TO BE DRIZZLE W/A DEEP LLVL MOISTURE
PROFILE, LIGHT ESE WINDS AND A DECENT DRY WEDGE NORTH OF THE MOIST
LAYER. DECIDED TO CARRY DRIZZLE AND FOG INTO THE MID MORNING.
THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWERS AROUND, BUT THEY WILL BE WIDELY
SCATTERED AND CONFINED TO THE W AND SW AS FORCING IS WEAK AT BEST
AND LIMITED TO THE LLVLS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN
TODAY W/READINGS IN THE 60S.
ALL THIS IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
AS AN OCCLUDED FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO TAP INTO A TROPICAL CONNECTION ASSOCIATED W/HRCN
GONZALO. THIS CONNECTION CAN BE SEEN ON THE LATEST SATELLITE WV
IMAGERY AS A STRONG PLUME IS SHOWN PUSHING N ALONG THE ATLC
SEABOARD. HIGH PWATS OF 1.5+ INCHES, A LLVL JET OF 50 KTS AND
STRONG SSE INFLOW THROUGH 700MBS SUPPORTS POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY
RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MDL SOUNDINGS ALSO POINT TO SOME
ELEVATED CAPE ESPECIALLY FROM THE SW INTO EASTERN AREAS BY EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. LIGHTING STRIKES WERE SEEN ALONG THE VIRGINIA-NORTH
CAROLINA COAST AS OF 06Z. DECIDED TO KEEP THE MENTION OF HEAVY
RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST AND ADDED THE MENTION OF TSTMS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS INCLUDING PISCATAQUIS CO. AND
UPSLOPE FAVORED AREAS WILL SEE OVER 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL W/SOME
SPOTS HITTING 3 INCHES IN A 12 HR PERIOD. AFTER COORDINATION
W/GYX, DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH. SOME MINOR
FLOODING COULD OCCUR ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS, BUT RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL BE ABLE TO HANDLE THIS
RAINFALL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE OCCLUDED FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON. DEEP MOISTURE...WITH A TROPICAL
CONNECTION...WILL BE DRAWN NORTH ACROSS THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF
THE FRONT. AN AREA OF RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL CROSS THE
REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE OCCLUSION WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
ALSO POSSIBLE. PRECIPITATION WILL THEN TAPER TO SHOWERS IN THE
WAKE OF THE OCCLUSION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. COULD HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS FRIDAY EVENING.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
DOWNEAST. A LOW LEVEL JET WILL ALSO CROSS THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF
THE OCCLUSION. GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF THE
OCCLUSION...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST.
HOWEVER...FORECAST WINDS APPEAR SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN WITH PREVIOUS
MODEL RUNS. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATER
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS FRIDAY/SATURDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION SUNDAY...WHILE AN
UPPER TROF CROSSES THE REGION. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS SUNDAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS DOWNEAST. COULD HAVE A CHANCE
OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
UPPER TROF WILL MOVE NORTHEAST MONDAY. COULD HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF MORNING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS MONDAY.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES NORTH WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DOWNEAST MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. EXPECT
INCREASING CLOUDS TUESDAY...WITH RAIN CHANCES THEN INCREASING
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS SUNDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVEL
TEMPERATURES MONDAY/TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR RIGHT INTO TONIGHT. THERE COULD BE PERIODS OF MVFR
EARLY TODAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERMINALS.
SHORT TERM: IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN IMPROVING TO MVFR/VFR
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS AND LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
COULD BE A CONCERN FRIDAY MORNING WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
ALSO POSSIBLE. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. OCCASIONAL MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION LATER SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS. GENERALLY
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY...THOUGH OCCASIONAL
MVFR CONDITIONS COULD LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS EARLY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: DECIDED TO GO W/A SCA STARTING LATER TONIGHT AS WINDS
AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE OCCLUSION. THE NAM
AND GFS BOTH SUPPORT A LLVL JET OF 50 KTS MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS
LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. SOME THIS STRONG WIND COULD MIX
DOWN TO THE SURFACE. DECIDED TO GO W/GUSTS 25+ KTS AFTER MIDNIGHT
W/SEAS BUILDING TO 7 FT BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE
WATERS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED
IN RAIN AND FOG FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...HEWITT/NORCROSS
MARINE...HEWITT/NORCROSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
211 AM EDT THU OCT 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE OVERNIGHT WILL MOVE BACK
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT FROM QUEBEC WILL
APPROACH LATE THURSDAY THEN SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
2 AM UPDATE...ADJUSTED THE POPS FURTHER TO SHOW ONLY SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE. ELSEWHERE, DECIDED TO CARRY
DRIZZLE AND SOME FOG ESPECIALLY DOWNEAST AND THE COAST AS FORCING
IS WEAK AT BEST AND LIMITED TO THE LLVLS ATTM PER THE LATEST LAPS
AND RAP SOUNDINGS. QPF WAS ALSO ADJUSTED BACK A BIT TO REFLECT
THIS THINKING.
EXPECT CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE ON
THURSDAY WITH A STEADIER RAIN MOVING IN FROM WEST TO EAST LATER
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE RAIN WILL BECOME HEAVIER BY LATER
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT. HIGHS
ON THURSDAY WONT BE AS WARM AS TODAY BUT STILL 10 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ALL MODELS AGREE THAT THE COLD FRONT ALONG WITH THE BAND OF
HEAVIER RNFL AHEAD OF IT ARRIVESINTO THE FA FROM THE W LATER THU
NGT...TRAVERSING THE FA FRI MRNG INTO ERLY AFTN...THEN EXITING THE
FA LATER FIR AFTN. THE BIGGEST QUESTION IS HOW MUCH OF TROP
CONNECTION WITH DEEP MOISTURE STREAMING WELL NNWRD FROM GONZALO IN
THE OPEN N CNTRL ATLC. SOME MODELS INDICATE A BETTER CONNECTION
THEN OTHERS...RESULTING IN EITHER HVY RNFL GETTING WELL NWRD INTO
OUR FA VS ONLY AFFECTING INTERIOR SW AND DOWNEAST AREAS. FOR
NOW...OUR FCST QPF PLAYS THE MIDDLE GROUND BETWEEN THESE TWO
SCENARIOS...AND WE SHOW A HIGHER RNFL TOTAL OF UPWARDS OF 2 INCHES
OR SO ALG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE CNTRL ME AND BAXTER PARK
HIGHLANDS... WITH 1.0 TO 1.5 INCHES ELSEWHERE BEFORE RNFL ENDS BY
FRI EVE. OF COURSE...TEMPS THU NGT AND FRI WILL REMAIN QUITE MILD
FOR THIS TM OF SEASON.
IN ADDITION TO RN...WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FROM THE THE SSE AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT ON FRI WITH THE MDTLY STRONG MSL PRES GRAD.
ALSO... SOME ELEVATED CAPE IS POSSIBLE JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT ACROSS ALL OF THE FA...SO WE CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLD TSTMS.
THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ALSO DOES NOT LOOK TO BE THAT
MUCH COOLER...SO OVRNGT LOWS FRI NGT WILL ALSO BE MILD...BUT A
LITTLE COOLER THAN THU NGT UNDER CLRG SKIES DOWNEAST AND E CNTRL
AND PRTL CLRG SKIES ACROSS THE N. SAT SHOULD BE FAIR...WITH
INCREASING CLDNSS LATE IN THE DAY WITH ANOTHER S/WV AND STRONGER
COLD FRONT APCHG FROM QB. ANY SHWRS FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL ONLY
AFFECT FAR WRN PTNS OF THE FA JUST PRIOR TO EVE. HI TEMPS WILL
AGAIN BE QUITE MILD FOR THIS TM OF SEASON.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE
REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SLOW-MOVING UPPER
LOW. SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY LOOK TO BE THE RAINIEST PERIODS,
BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A SLIGHT CHANCE OR LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS EACH
DAY THEREAFTER, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST MAINE. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL, WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPS TO BE LOW ENOUGH
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE NORTH FOR SOME SNOW TO POSSIBLY
MIX IN WITH ANY RAIN SHOWERS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS EVENING WILL BE GIVING WAY TO
WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR IN LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE DAY THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM: LIFR TO IFR CLGS AND VSBYS IN RN WILL PREVAIL THRU
MUCH OF FRI ACROSS THE TAF SITES...THEN RECOVER TO VFR BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT LATER FRI AFTN AND REMAIN SO THRU FRI NGT AND SAT.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS TONIGHT AND MOST OF THURSDAY...AND THEN BEGIN TO INCREASE
LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON. VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED TO LESS THAN
1 NM IN AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE TONIGHT AND THEN TO 1 TO 3 NM IN
DEVELOPING RAIN AND PATCHY FOG ON THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM: SCA CONDITIONS WILL COMMENCE ACROSS THE WATERS THU EVE
AND CONT SO THRU SAT. WIND WILL INITIALLY BE THE CULPRIT FOR
HIGHER WVS THU NGT AND FRI...WITH DISTANT SWELL FROM GONZALO IN
THE CNTRL ATLC AFFECTING OUR WATERS FRI NGT INTO SAT AS WINDS
DIMINISH BLO SCA THRESHOLDS. OTHERWISE...MARINE FOG WILL BE
CONCERN THU NGT INTO ERLY FRI AFTN AS MOIST LLVL TROP AIR STREAMS
NWRD OVR THE COLD GULF OF ME WATERS.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
105 AM EDT THU OCT 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY AND WILL FINALLY CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. A WEAK
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON FRIDAY. A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AND WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
1230 AM UPDATE...CUT DOWN ON POP A BIT AS NO SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS
DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA YET.
.UPDATE...
PUSHED TIMING OF PRECIPITATION BACK A FEW HOURS BASED ON LATEST
MODEL CONSENSUS...NAMELY THE WRF AND RAP MODELS. SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS HAVE BEGUN TO FALL IN THE HIGHER PEAKS AND HAVE INCREASED
POPS IN THESE AREAS. SHOWERS INCREASE MOSTLY OVER NH THROUGH 2
AM AND THEN EASTWARD THROUGH DAYBREAK AS LLJ AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
SHIFT OVER THE REGION.
AREAS CURRENTLY RECEIVING RAINFALL FROM NORTHERN NY STATE TO
COASTAL NJ HAVE SEEN WARM RAIN PROCESSES DOMINATING WITH HEAVY...
TRAINING PRECIPITATION BANDS CONTRIBUTING TO HIGH RAINFALL RATES
OF A HALF AN INCH OR MORE PER HOUR. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE
SLOWLY EAST OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE.
INCIDENTALLY TONIGHT`S 00Z KGYX SOUNDING HAS 1.20 INCHES FOR
PRECIPITABLE WATER... THIS IS NEAR THE 80TH PERCENTILE FOR
OCTOBER. STILL EXPECTING THE HEAVIEST AXIS OF RAIN TO REACH NH AND
MAINE BETWEEN 8 AM AND NOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT REMAINS PRETTY MUCH
STATUS QUO WITH A HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT EXPECTED. THE HEAVIEST
BANDS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THURSDAY MORNING IN THE
WEST...EVENTUALLY TRANSLATING TO THE EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AND PUSH THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WE ARE STILL EXPECTING A
GOOD 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES OF RAINFALL...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLY TO AROUND 3 INCHES ALONG WINDWARD SLOPES OF THE WHITES
AND MAINE FOOTHILLS AS TROPICAL MOISTURE GETS ADVECTED IN ON STOUT
SELY INFLOW. CONVERSELY...LOCATIONS ON THE LEEWARD SIDE OF THE
MOUNTAINS...SUCH AS WHITEFIELD NH...SHOULD SEE MUCH LESS RAINFALL.
PERHAPS NOT EVEN A HALF INCH THERE.
ENOUGH INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT TO
ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLD THUNDER. MORE PERSISTENT HEAVIER CONVECTIVE
BANDS MAY BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN SOME DECENT WIND GUSTS.
HOWEVER...AS OF THIS WRITING THE BOUNDARY LAYER LOOKS TO BE A BIT
TOO INVERTED FOR A STRONG WIND EVENT. IN ADDITION...SOME OF THE
MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE SPEED OF THE LOW LEVEL JET AS WELL.
MOST ARE 40 KT OR LOWER IN THE LOWEST 5 KFT. THEREFORE...DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THURSDAY
NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING.
FRESHENING WESTERLY FLOW WILL CLEAR LINGERING STRATUS THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON. MAY SEE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS IN NORTHEAST
ZONES DURING THE MORNING BUT THESE SHOULD CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA
BY EARLY AFTERNOON. NOT A LOT IN THE WAY OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT AND INCREASING SUN AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL AGAIN SEND
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID 60S TO LOWER
70S.
IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS FRIDAY NIGHT AS WEAK RIDGE FLATTENS AND
SECONDARY COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WILL SEE VARIABLE
CLOUDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND JUST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE.
EXPECT TEMPS TO RANGE THROUGH THE 40S NORTH AND IN THE UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S SOUTH.
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY BRINGING INCREASING
CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS. BEST CHANCE
OF PRECIP WILL BE IN NORTHWEST ZONES BUT NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH IN
THE WAY OF QPF. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY UNIFORM ACROSS THE
REGION WITH MOST AREAS REACHING THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
MORE OF THE SAME FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS DEEP TROUGH
ALOFT KEEPS UNSTABLE AIR OVER THE REGION. WILL SEE MUCH COOLER
TEMPS ON SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH HIGHS NOT GETTING OUT OF THE
40S IN THE NORTH AND LOWER TO MID 50S SOUTH. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL ADD TO THE CHILL.
STRONG NORTHWEST GRADIENT WILL PERSIST INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL
DIMINISH SOMEWHAT ON MONDAY AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER LABRADOR
CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY. EXPECT CLOUDS TO DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT
DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY.
AFTER A CHILLY START WILL ONCE AGAIN ONLY SEE HIGHS IN THE MID 40S
TO MID 50S.
UPPER TROUGH WILL ONCE AGAIN DIG INTO THE NEW ENGLAND AS FRESH
BATCH OF JET ENERGY DIGS INTO THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL KEEP CLOUDS
AND SCATTERED SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
MIDWEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR OR LOWER EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT IN LOW STRATUS AND FOG. THESE CONDITIONS LOOK TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT IN STRATUS...FOG...AND
OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
LONG TERM...IFR/LIFR EARLY FRIDAY BECOMING VFR. VFR FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA HAS BEEN HOISTED FOR ALL WATERS THU THROUGH FRI.
LOW PROBABILITY OF MARGINAL GALE GUSTS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
THURS EVENING...BUT LOOKS LIKE MIXING WILL BE LIMITED.
LONG TERM...SCA`S LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
EXPECTING A 1.5 TO 2.5 INCH RAINFALL EVENT STARTING LATE TONIGHT.
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. NO
FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME AS THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
IN LOCATIONS OF HEAVIEST BANDS OF RAIN. HOWEVER...URBAN AND LOW
LYING FLOODING IS LIKELY. SOME FLASHIER STREAMS MAY SHOW VERY
SHARP RISES. THE MOST LIKELY CANDIDATE FOR A WATCH WOULD BE THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS AND MAINE FOOTHILLS...BUT WILL LET NEXT SHIFT SEE
NEW DATA.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY
FOR ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
KISTNER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
501 AM EDT THU OCT 16 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 459 AM EDT THU OCT 16 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTERED OVER IN/OH. MUCH OF THE FCST AREA REMAINS UNDER
CONSIDERABLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE NW SIDE OF THIS FEATURE...AND
KMQT RADAR HAS SHOWN SPOTTY -SHRA/SPRINKLES AT TIMES OVER THE ERN
FCST AREA OVERNIGHT. MUCH OF FAR WRN UPPER MI ENJOYED SUNNY SKIES
YESTERDAY. DURING THE NIGHT...SOME FOG HAS FORMED IN THAT AREA AS
WELL AS SOME LOW CLOUDS FROM PORTIONS OF THE KEWEENAW DOWN ALONG THE
VCNTY OF THE SHORELINE INTO NW WI. UPSTREAM...A RATHER POTENT
LOOKING SHORTWAVE IS MOVING E ACROSS MT WITH ASSOCIATED SFC LOW IN
THE ND/SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA BORDER AREA.
FOR TODAY...SOME -SHRA/SPRINKLES MAY CONTINUE TO APPEAR AT TIMES
THRU THE MID MORNING OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE FCST AREA UNDER
LINGERING WEAK DEEP LAYER FORCING PER QVECTORS. DEEP LAYER QVECTOR
DIVERGENCE THEN TAKES OVER...SO IT APPEARS DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE THE
RULE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTN. BIGGEST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE
CLOUD TRENDS. WITH A LIGHT/VRBL WIND REGIME ACROSS THE AREA TODAY
BTWN SFC LOW IN SRN ONTARIO AND APPROACHING LOW MOVING ALONG
U.S./CANADA BORDER...THERE WILL BE LITTLE ADVECTION OCCURRING.
THUS...A PESSIMISTIC CLOUD FCST APPEARS TO BE THE WAY TO GO. THE W
WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE THE BETTER OPPORTUNITY TO SEE SOME
SUNSHINE...AND THIS SHOULD HELP BOOST TEMPS TO AROUND 60F. WHERE
CLOUDS ARE MORE PERSISTENT...LWR 50S WILL BE MORE COMMON.
TONIGHT...THE POTENT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK INTO NRN MN AND
WILL HELP PICK UP THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY.
AS THIS OCCURS...PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE LATTER FEATURE WILL SWING
BACK TO THE NW WITH LEFT EXIT OF 100KT UPPER JET STREAK ON E SIDE OF
THE LOW ASSISTING PCPN PRODUCTION. MUCH OF THAT PCPN SHOULD PASS BY
TO THE E AND N OF UPPER MI...BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO MENTION SCHC POPS
OVER THE FAR E LATE. MEANWHILE...FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE WILL SPREAD INTO WRN UPPER MI. INITIALLY...DEEP MOISTURE
IN THE COLUMN IS LACKING...SO IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME BEFORE PCPN
DEVELOPS. BEST POTENTIAL FOR PCPN SHOULD COME WITH THE ADDITION OF
LOWER LEVEL FORCING FROM SFC-850MB TROF TRAILING WNW FROM SFC LOW
WHICH SHOULD BE IN THE VCNTY OF CNTRL UPPER MI AT 12Z MON. HAVE THUS
INTRODUCED CHC POPS OVER WRN UPPER LATE TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 AM EDT THU OCT 16 2014
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE MEDIUM/LONG TERM WL FOCUS ON POPS AND
WINDS ON FRI INTO SAT AS A STRONG DISTURBANCE SLIDES THRU THE UPR
LKS AND INTERACTS WITH SLOW MOVING CLOSED LO RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
RECENT INCLEMENT WX OVER THE E HALF OF UPR MI. AS THE DISTURBANCES
PHASE...A DEEP LO PRES WL DVLP OVER SE CANADA...BRINGING A STRONG
AND COLDER NW FLOW THAT WL RESULT IN SOME LK ENHANCED PCPN FOR A
TIME ON FRI NGT. RIGHT NOW...IT APPEARS MOST OF THE PCPN WL FALL AS
RA.
FRI/FRI NGT...STRONG SHRTWV CROSSING THE NRN ROCKIES EARLY THIS MRNG
IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE UPR LKS ON FRI AND MERGE WITH THE
SLUGGIST CLOSED LO NOW OVER THE OH RIVER VALLEY THAT WL BE MOVING
NEWD THRU SE ONTARIO AT THAT TIME. THE RESULT WL BE A DEEPENING SFC
LO PRES NEAR JAMES BAY AND STRENGTHENING NNW WINDS/CAD IN THE UPR
LKS ON FRI AFTN AND NGT. ALTHOUGH THERE WL BE LTL MSTR INFLOW IN
ADVANCE OF THE SHRTWV MOVING IN FM THE W ON FRI THAT WL LIMIT THE
INTENSITY OF THE ACCOMPANYING QVECTOR CNVGC...VIGOROUS NATURE OF
THIS SHRTWV/PVA ACCOMPANIED BY 12HR H5 HGT FALLS UP 100M WL SUPPORT
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NRN CWA ON THE CYC
SIDE OF SHRTWV TRACK AND WHERE MODELS SHOW MORE APPRECIABLE DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC/UPR DVGC. EXPECT THE LOWEST POPS OVER THE SCENTRAL
WITH DOWNSLOPE W VEERING NW LLVL WIND COMPONENT. AS NNW H925 WINDS
INCRSG UP TO 40-45 KTS LATE FRI/FRI NGT DRIVE H85 TEMPS DOWN TO -4
TO -6C ON FRI NGT IN THE PRESENCE OF SOME LINGERING DEEP MSTR ON THE
CYC SIDE OF A REINFORCING SHRTWV DIGGING SSEWD THRU MN...EXPECT A
PERIOD OF LK ENHANCED PCPN THAT MAY FEATURE SOME SN MIXING IN WITH
THE RA AT LEAST OVER THE HIER TERRAIN OF THE NW HALF. WINDS WL
LIKELY AT LEAST APRCH ADVY CRITERIA...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LK SUP
SHORE WITH THE INCRSG INSTABILITY. THE LK PCPN MAY BEGIN TO DIMINISH
TOWARD 12Z SAT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF HGT RISES/MID LVL DRYING/LOWERING
SUBSIDENCE INVRN UNDER THE DNVA IN THE WAKE OF THE UPR TROF SHIFTING
INTO THE ERN LKS. ONE OTHER CONCERN WL BE THE HI WAVES WHIPPED UP ON
LK SUP BY THE STRENGTHENING WINDS ON FRI NGT. SINCE THE LK SUP WATER
LVL HAS RISEN UP TO HALF A FOOT ABV NORMAL...THERE MAY BE SOME BEACH
FLOODING AT THE MORE EXPOSED LOCATIONS.
SAT...THE APRCH OF A SHRTWV RDG AND ACCOMPANYING SFC HI PRES WL
BRING DIMINISHING WINDS AND VIGOROUS MID LVL DRYING THAT WL CAUSE LK
EFFECT PCPN ON SAT MRNG TO END IN THE AFTN IN THE PRESENCE OF
DIURNAL HEATING EVEN IF A GOOD DEAL OF SC LINGERS WITHIN THE LLVL
THERMAL TROF THAT IS PROGGED TO HOLD IN PLACE UNDER SUBSIDENCE INVRN
NEAR H875 WITHIN THE NLY FLOW E OF THE APRCHG RDG AXIS. SOME CLRG IS
LIKELY TO ARRIVE OVER THE W BY LATE IN THE AFTN WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
THE SFC RDG AXIS.
SAT NGT...WITH RDG AXIS PASSING OVHD AND PWAT FCST AS LO AS 0.25
INCH SUPPORTING THE CLRG OF ANY LINGERING LO CLDS...EXPECT TEMPS TO
FALL WELL INTO THE 20S OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF EVEN IF SOME HI CLDS
ARRIVE LATE IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SHRTWV DIGGING SEWD THRU SCENTRAL
CANADA. SINCE LO CLDS WL LINGER LONGER OVER THE E...TEMPS THERE WL
NOT FALL AS FAR.
SUN INTO MON...NEXT SHRTWV DROPPING SEWD AND INTO THE UPR LKS/UPR
MIDWEST BY 12Z MON WL BRING INCRSG CLDS ON SUN AND THE NEXT CHC OF
SHOWERS SUN AFTN INTO MON MRNG. ONCE AGAIN...MSTR INFLOW INTO THIS
DISTURBANCE WL BE LIMITED...BUT FAIRLY VIGOROUS DPVA/QVECTOR CNVGC
WILL BRING AT LEAST SCT SHOWERS BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF HGT RISES/DNVA
IN THE WAKE OF THE SHRTWV SLIPPING TO THE SE DIMINISH THE PCPN
THREAT LATER ON MON. ALL THE PCPN ACCOMPANYING THIS DISTURBANCE WL
BE IN THE FORM OF RA
EXTENDED...ALTHOUGH SOME CLDS AND EVEN A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER ON
MON NGT UNDER LLVL CYC FLOW/LLVL THERMAL TROF LEFT IN THE WAKE OF
THE DEPARTING SHRTWV/SFC LO...BLDG UPR RDG OVER CENTRAL NAMERICA AND
SFC HI PRES IN THE GREAT LKS WL BRING DRY WX TO UPR MI.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT THU OCT 16 2014
A WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE OVER INDIANA INTO LOWER MICHIGAN WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING LOW CLOUDS/VSBY INTO KSAW. EXPECT LIFR AND
POSSIBLY VLIFR CONDITIONS DUE TO PERSISTENT MOIST AND COOL
NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR BENEATH INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING ALOFT. VERY LOW CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE
INTO MID MORNING. MEANWHILE...AT KIWD AND KCMX...THE MAIN ISSUE WILL
BE GROUND FOG TRENDS INTO THE MORNING HRS AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
MOVES OVER WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN. EXPECT THAT THE SHALLOW AND VARIABLE
AT TIMES GROUND FOG AT IWD WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY BY AROUND 14Z. THERE
IS ALSO LOWER CONFIDENCE AT CMX BUT SUSPECT THAT SOME REDUCTION IN
VSBY TO AT LEAST MVFR IS ALSO LIKELY OVERNIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 434 AM EDT THU OCT 16 2014
EXPECT LIGHT WINDS INTO EARLY FRI UNDER A RELATIVELY WEAK PRES
GRADIENT. BUT THEN AS A PAIR OF UPPER DISTURBANCES COMBINE ON FRI...
A DEEP LO PRES WILL DEVELOP IN SE CANADA AND BRING INCREASING NNW
WINDS THAT INCREASE TO GALE FORCE/UP TO 40 KTS ON FRI AFTERNOON AND
FRI NIGHT THAT IMPACT ALMOST ALL OF LAKE SUPERIOR INTO NORTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN. ISSUED GALE WATCHES FOR ALL BUT FAR WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR...WHERE THE WINDS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG. AS A HI PRES
RIDGE APPROACHES FROM THE W ON SAT...THE STRONG WINDS WILL DIMINISH
W-E. ALTHOUGH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE/SURFACE LO PRES WILL TRACK ACROSS
THE UPPER LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK...NO STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
LSZ248>251-267.
GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
LSZ266.
GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
LSZ263>265.
GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
LSZ244-245.
GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
LSZ242-243.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
LMZ248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
138 AM EDT THU OCT 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS OCCASIONALLY HEAVY AT TIMES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. A FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING
BRINGING AN END TO THE SHOWERS. TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE
PRIMARILY DRY WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1230 AM UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO CURRENT CONDITIONS. NEGATIVE TILT TROF WILL KEEP
SHOWERS HERE MOST OF THIS MORNING. AS STATED BELOW ANOTHER BATCH
OF HEAVY RAIN MOVING OVER DELAWARE STATE HEADING THIS WAY. 4 AM IN
CWA. DROPPED ADVISORIES AND WARNING BUT MORE LIKELY WITH NEXT
BATCH.
1015 PM UPDATE...
RELATIVE LULL IN THE ACTION CURRENTLY AFTER A STRIPE 1 TO 3 INCH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA...LOCALIZED REPORTS
OF 2.5 TO 4 INCHES. IMPACTS HAVE BEEN ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS
WHICH ARE SUBJECT TO POOR DRAINAGE FROM CONCRETE AND ADDITIONAL
PROBLEM OF FALLEN LEAVES BLOCKING GRATES. SCRANTON AND UTICA IN
PARTICULAR HAD A LOT OF WATER ON ROADS AND SOME TRAPPED CARS.
VERY DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER...ALMOST 4 KM...AND PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES TO AROUND AN INCH-AND-THREE- QUARTERS...ARE VERY ANOMALOUS
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE RESULTING WARM CLOUD PROCESSES IS
LIKELY WHY RADAR HAS STRUGGLED TO ESTIMATE RAINFALL...EARLIER
UNDERESTIMATING VERSUS REPORTS BY UP TO A FACTOR OF 2.
RAIN RIGHT NOW IS ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH LESS BANDING COMPARED TO
EARLIER. HOWEVER...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN PLACE OVERNIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING BECAUSE OF CONTINUED EXPECTED ROUNDS OF
RAINFALL. NEW BAND NOW DEVELOPING AS EXPECTED IN THE DEL-MAR-VA
AREA...AND THIS WILL RIDE LLJ QUICKLY INTO OUR REGION AS PER THE
HI RES MODELS HRRR AND RUC...AND LOOKS LIKE THE NEW OPERATIONAL
00Z NAM THAT IS JUST COMING IN AS WELL. OUTSIDE OF THE URBAN POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS...WE WERE ABLE TO ABSORB THE INITIAL SHOT OF RAIN
RATHER WELL DUE TO DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...NEW
LOCALIZED ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN WILL BE MUCH MORE PRONE TO RUNNING
OFF AND CAUSING ISSUES.
THURSDAY MORNING CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE AS THE SURFACE
OCCLUSION MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY...SYSTEM WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTH INTO EASTERN
CANADA WITH REGION UNDER A FAIRLY DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW. HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL RANGE IN THE 60S.
FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW NOW MOVING INTO THE
NORTHWEST US WILL TRACK INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND CARVE OUT
ANOTHER DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF WITH THIS CURRENT FEATURE AND PUSH A
SFC COLD FRONT THROUGH ON SATURDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC/SLIGHT
CHC POPS DURING THIS PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
S/WV EMBEDDED IN THE NWLY FLOW BEHIND THE PARTING UPR LOW WILL
PASS THROUGH THE RGN IN THE SAT NGT/SUNDAY TIME FRAME. ANOTHER
S/WV APRCHS FOR MON NGT/TUE AND PASSES TO OUR SOUTH. CARRIED LOW
CHC POPS FOR BOTH OF THESE SYSTEMS. IN BETWEEN THEM...GNRLY FAIR
WX. HPC GUIDANCE LOOKED GREAT AND WAS USED FOR THE MED RNG. TEMPS
GNRLY BLO NORMAL WITH MAXES U40S TO M50S...MINS 30-35.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...
AREA OF RAIN IS MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH AND WILL AFFECT TERMINALS
WITH IFR RESTRICTIONS AT SOME POINT DURING THE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT
IFR TO HOLD OFF AT SYR AND RME UNTIL AFTER 08Z WITH BGM AND AVP
SEEING IFR BEGINNING TO IMPACT TERMINALS AFTER 07Z.
AS RAIN CLEARS OUT FROM TERMINALS AFTER 12Z EXPECT A GRADUAL
IMPROVE TO BKN-OVC VFR DECK TODAY. POTENTIAL EXISTS AGAIN FOR LOW
MVFR/IFR AT RME/SYR AND ITH AFTER 02Z FRIDAY WITH CONFIDENCE LOW
REMAINING TERMINALS.
OUTLOOK...
THU NGT...MVFR IN SCT -SHRA.
FRI/FRI NGT...VFR.
SAT/SAT NGT...MVFR WITH -SHRA PSBL.
SUN...IMPRVG TO VFR.
MON...VFR.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES. A LULL NOW WITH SHOWERS NOT TRAINING
AND HEAVIER RAIN ISOLATED. FLASH FLOOD WARNING AND FLOOD
ADVISORIES CANCELLED. ANOTHER BATCH OF HEAVY RAIN GETTING
ORGANIZED OVER DELAWARE STATE WILL MOVE NNW INTO CWA EARLY THIS
MORNING. MESO MODELS HAVE THIS. THIS COULD DROP ANOTHER QUICK 1 TO
2 INCHES. SO FAR HIGHEST AMOUNTS 3 TO 5 INCHES FROM LUZERNE TO
CHENANGO. DESPITE THE DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS FLOOD RESPONSE WAS
RAPID...ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS. RADAR ESTIMATES GROSSLY
UNDERDONE. STREAM RESPONSE WAS RAPID TOO BUT NO FLOODING THERE.
THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED SINCE THE STREAMS HAVE NOT DROPPED
BACK TO ORIGINAL LEVELS.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ038>040-
043-044-047-048-072.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ009-036-
037-045-046-055>057-062.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM/TAC
NEAR TERM...MDP/TAC
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...PVN
HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1242 AM EDT THU OCT 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS OCCASIONALLY HEAVY AT TIMES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. A FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING
BRINGING AN END TO THE SHOWERS. TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE
PRIMARILY DRY WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1230 AM UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO CURRENT CONDITIONS. NEGATIVE TILT TROF WILL KEEP
SHOWERS HERE MOST OF THIS MORNING. AS STATED BELOW ANOTHER BATCH
OF HEAVY RAIN MOVING OVER DELAWARE STATE HEADING THIS WAY. 4 AM IN
CWA. DROPPED ADVISORIES AND WARNING BUT MORE LIKELY WITH NEXT
BATCH.
1015 PM UPDATE...
RELATIVE LULL IN THE ACTION CURRENTLY AFTER A STRIPE 1 TO 3 INCH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA...LOCALIZED REPORTS
OF 2.5 TO 4 INCHES. IMPACTS HAVE BEEN ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS
WHICH ARE SUBJECT TO POOR DRAINAGE FROM CONCRETE AND ADDITIONAL
PROBLEM OF FALLEN LEAVES BLOCKING GRATES. SCRANTON AND UTICA IN
PARTICULAR HAD A LOT OF WATER ON ROADS AND SOME TRAPPED CARS.
VERY DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER...ALMOST 4 KM...AND PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES TO AROUND AN INCH-AND-THREE- QUARTERS...ARE VERY ANOMALOUS
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE RESULTING WARM CLOUD PROCESSES IS
LIKELY WHY RADAR HAS STRUGGLED TO ESTIMATE RAINFALL...EARLIER
UNDERESTIMATING VERSUS REPORTS BY UP TO A FACTOR OF 2.
RAIN RIGHT NOW IS ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH LESS BANDING COMPARED TO
EARLIER. HOWEVER...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN PLACE OVERNIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING BECAUSE OF CONTINUED EXPECTED ROUNDS OF
RAINFALL. NEW BAND NOW DEVELOPING AS EXPECTED IN THE DEL-MAR-VA
AREA...AND THIS WILL RIDE LLJ QUICKLY INTO OUR REGION AS PER THE
HI RES MODELS HRRR AND RUC...AND LOOKS LIKE THE NEW OPERATIONAL
00Z NAM THAT IS JUST COMING IN AS WELL. OUTSIDE OF THE URBAN POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS...WE WERE ABLE TO ABSORB THE INITIAL SHOT OF RAIN
RATHER WELL DUE TO DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...NEW
LOCALIZED ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN WILL BE MUCH MORE PRONE TO RUNNING
OFF AND CAUSING ISSUES.
THURSDAY MORNING CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE AS THE SURFACE
OCCLUSION MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY...SYSTEM WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTH INTO EASTERN
CANADA WITH REGION UNDER A FAIRLY DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW. HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL RANGE IN THE 60S.
FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW NOW MOVING INTO THE
NORTHWEST US WILL TRACK INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND CARVE OUT
ANOTHER DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF WITH THIS CURRENT FEATURE AND PUSH A
SFC COLD FRONT THROUGH ON SATURDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC/SLIGHT
CHC POPS DURING THIS PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
S/WV EMBEDDED IN THE NWLY FLOW BEHIND THE PARTING UPR LOW WILL
PASS THROUGH THE RGN IN THE SAT NGT/SUNDAY TIME FRAME. ANOTHER
S/WV APRCHS FOR MON NGT/TUE AND PASSES TO OUR SOUTH. CARRIED LOW
CHC POPS FOR BOTH OF THESE SYSTEMS. IN BETWEEN THEM...GNRLY FAIR
WX. HPC GUIDANCE LOOKED GREAT AND WAS USED FOR THE MED RNG. TEMPS
GNRLY BLO NORMAL WITH MAXES U40S TO M50S...MINS 30-35.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
00Z UPDATE...
SURGE OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE UP THE EASTERN SIDE OF A LARGE UPPER
LOW...HAS RESULTED IN WAVES OF RAIN WHICH HAVE BEEN AND WILL
CONTINUE TO BE HEAVY AT TIMES WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS...ESPECIALLY
KAVP-KBGM-KRME. EVEN WHERE RAIN DOES NOT FALL AS HARD
THOUGH...EXPECTING DEVELOPMENT OF IFR CIGS AND/OR FOG OVERNIGHT.
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WITHIN LOWEST 2 KFT AGL WILL BREACH LLWS
CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING AT KAVP...BUT PROBABLY NOT QUITE
AT THE OTHER TERMINALS /THOUGH THIS POTENTIAL WILL BE MONITORED/.
RAIN WILL TAPER OFF THU MORNING...CLOUDS MAY BE A LITTLE SLOWER TO
ERODE BUT EVENTUAL VFR ANTICIPATED LATE MORNING-EARLY AFTERNOON AS
DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION.
OUTLOOK...
THU NGT...MVFR IN SCT -SHRA.
FRI/FRI NGT...VFR.
SAT/SAT NGT...MVFR WITH -SHRA PSBL.
SUN...IMPRVG TO VFR.
MON...VFR.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES. A LULL NOW WITH SHOWERS NOT TRAINING
AND HEAVIER RAIN ISOLATED. FLASH FLOOD WARNING AND FLOOD
ADVISORIES CANCELLED. ANOTHER BATCH OF HEAVY RAIN GETTING
ORGANIZED OVER DELAWARE STATE WILL MOVE NNW INTO CWA EARLY THIS
MORNING. MESO MODELS HAVE THIS. THIS COULD DROP ANOTHER QUICK 1 TO
2 INCHES. SO FAR HIGHEST AMOUNTS 3 TO 5 INCHES FROM LUZERNE TO
CHENANGO. DESPITE THE DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS FLOOD RESPONSE WAS
RAPID...ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS. RADAR ESTIMATES GROSSLY
UNDERDONE. STREAM RESPONSE WAS RAPID TOO BUT NO FLOODING THERE.
THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED SINCE THE STREAMS HAVE NOT DROPPED
BACK TO ORIGINAL LEVELS.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ038>040-
043-044-047-048-072.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ009-036-
037-045-046-055>057-062.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM/TAC
NEAR TERM...MDP/TAC
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MDP
HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
206 AM EDT THU OCT 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER INDIANA WILL WOBBLE ACROSS THE REGION INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOVING NORTHWARD AND STRENGTHENING OVER
EASTERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. THERE WILL BE SEVERAL TROUGHS THAT
ROTATE AROUND THE LOW WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVING FRIDAY
NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
DID SOME ADJUSTING OF THE POPS BUT DID CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF POPS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. ADDED PATCHY DENSE FOG TO A LARGE
AREA. THE CLOUDS DECREASE AT TIMES AND THEN THE DENSE FOG FORMS AND
THEN WHEN THE CLOUDS MOVES BACK IN THE VISIBILITY USUALLY
IMPROVES. THE HRRR MODEL TRIES TO INDICATE A LARGE AREA OF DENSE
FOG DEVELOPING OVER NW OHIO. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR WHETHER THIS
ACTUALLY OCCURS WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS ROTATING INTO NW OHIO DURING
THE NIGHT.
MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE LOWS BASED ON MIDNIGHT TEMPERATURES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS IN A BAND HAVE BECOME MORE PREVALENT FROM ABOUT CUYAHOGA
COUNTY SOUTHEAST INTO MAHONING COUNTY. LOCAL AND MESOSCALE MODELS
DID NOT HANDLE THIS SCENARIO VERY WELL. WILL UPDATE TO INCLUDE
GREATER POPS OVER THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREA AND A CHANCE ELSEWHERE.
OTHERWISE...NO OTHER MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A STRONGER PIECE OF ENERGY WILL ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LOW ON
THURSDAY WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING AS IT MOVES FROM
WESTERN NY INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO. AS THE LOW PIVOTS NORTHWARD IT
WILL PULL A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE THE
HIGHEST ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA BUT ALL LOCATIONS WILL
EXPERIENCE SCATTERED SHOWERS. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH COOLER AIR
FLOWING ACROSS THE LAKE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY TO KEEP SOME
LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS GOING. THESE WILL MAINLY BE OVER NE OHIO INTO
NW PA. IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE A DRY PERIOD FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF
THE NEXT MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT MAY BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL SPILL
ACROSS THE LAKE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH NE OHIO AND NW PA GETTING MOST
OF THE SHOWERS. WE ARE SLIGHTLY CONCERNED THAT SOME SNOW MAY MIX IN
ON THE HILLTOPS OF NW PA SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL MONITOR THIS
POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST SUNDAY. LAKE
ENHANCED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL LINGER IN THE FAR EASTERN PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE LAKE THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY.
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES ZONAL THE SECOND HALF OF SUNDAY WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. BY
MONDAY MORNING ANOTHER VORT MAX DIVES SOUTH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
AND THE SURFACE HIGH TRANSLATES OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. A WEAK
SURFACE LOW WILL FORM IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE...AND MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE MEASURABLE RAINFALL ON
MONDAY. WHILE THE AREA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW MOST OF
MONDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50`S.
THE RAIN WILL LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY AND EVENTUALLY COME TO AN END
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE HIGH FILLS AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD. THE REST OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE
DRY WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...DESPITE THE RIDGING.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SPIRALING OVERHEAD THE OHIO VALLEY. CONDITIONS WILL
VARY ACROSS THE SPECTRUM OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY DAYLIGHT
HOURS. AREAS OF FOG/LOW CEILINGS ACROSS THE WEST...TOL/FDY AND
ACROSS THE EAST YNG/GKJ. SOME THICKER CLOUD COVER ATOP THE FOG
WILL BE MOVING IN ACROSS TOL/FDY SO THINKING THERE IS THAT THERE
WILL BE SOME IMPROVEMENT AND HAVE ALLOWED THEM TO COME UP OUT OF
LIFR. ACROSS THE FAR EAST NOT AS OPTIMISTIC...BUT ALSO NOT
ENTIRELY CONFIDENT THEY WILL TANK EITHER AS THEY ARE ON THE
FRINGES OF SOME OF THE MID CLOUD DECK. ACROSS THE MIDDLE
CONDITIONS ARE A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR...AND FIGURE WITH TIME
TONIGHT THEY TOO WILL HIT IFR FOR A WHILE. LOW CONFIDENCE IN ALL
OF THE EXACT DETAILS WITH VARIABILITY EXPECTED. UPPER LOW STICKS
AROUND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON THURSDAY AND CAN EXPECT ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS. ONLY COULD PUT A VCSH IN AT THIS POINT. CALM
WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY GAIN A WEST DIRECTION BY AFTERNOON.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR INTO EARLY FRIDAY...THEN AGAIN ON SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER INDIANA WILL MOVE TO NEAR LAKE ONTARIO
OVERNIGHT. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS ON LAKE ERIE WILL BACK TO NORTHWEST
BY THURSDAY MORNING AND THEN SOUTHWEST AGAIN BY THURSDAY EVENING AS
THE LOW CURLS NW INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20
KNOTS ON EXTREME EASTERN LAKE ERIE BY THURSDAY EVENING...THEN
INCREASE TO 20-25 KNOTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY(EAST HALF) AS
THIS LOW MERGES WITH THE NEXT LOW MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ON THE EAST END
STARTING SOMETIME ON FRIDAY...EXPANDING TO ALL NEARSHORE WATERS
EARLY SATURDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. THE SMALL CRAFTS
WILL NEED TO LINGER INTO SUNDAY WHEN CONDITIONS START TO IMPROVE AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE LAKE.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA/LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...MAYERS
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...KEC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
1238 AM EDT THU OCT 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER INDIANA WILL WOBBLE ACROSS THE REGION INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOVING NORTHWARD AND STRENGTHENING OVER
EASTERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. THERE WILL BE SEVERAL TROUGHS THAT
ROTATE AROUND THE LOW WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVING FRIDAY
NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
DID SOME ADJUSTING OF THE POPS BUT DID CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF POPS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. ADDED PATCHY DENSE FOG TO A LARGE
AREA. THE CLOUDS DECREASE AT TIMES AND THEN THE DENSE FOG FORMS AND
THEN WHEN THE CLOUDS MOVES BACK IN THE VISIBILITY USUALLY
IMPROVES. THE HRRR MODEL TRIES TO INDICATE A LARGE AREA OF DENSE
FOG DEVELOPING OVER NW OHIO. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR WHETHER THIS
ACTUALLY OCCURS WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS ROTATING INTO NW OHIO DURING
THE NIGHT.
MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE LOWS BASED ON MIDNIGHT TEMPERATURES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS IN A BAND HAVE BECOME MORE PREVALENT FROM ABOUT CUYAHOGA
COUNTY SOUTHEAST INTO MAHONING COUNTY. LOCAL AND MESOSCALE MODELS
DID NOT HANDLE THIS SCENARIO VERY WELL. WILL UPDATE TO INCLUDE
GREATER POPS OVER THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREA AND A CHANCE ELSEWHERE.
OTHERWISE...NO OTHER MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A STRONGER PIECE OF ENERGY WILL ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LOW ON
THURSDAY WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING AS IT MOVES FROM
WESTERN NY INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO. AS THE LOW PIVOTS NORTHWARD IT
WILL PULL A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE THE
HIGHEST ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA BUT ALL LOCATIONS WILL
EXPERIENCE SCATTERED SHOWERS. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH COOLER AIR
FLOWING ACROSS THE LAKE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY TO KEEP SOME
LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS GOING. THESE WILL MAINLY BE OVER NE OHIO INTO
NW PA. IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE A DRY PERIOD FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF
THE NEXT MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT MAY BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL SPILL
ACROSS THE LAKE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH NE OHIO AND NW PA GETTING MOST
OF THE SHOWERS. WE ARE SLIGHTLY CONCERNED THAT SOME SNOW MAY MIX IN
ON THE HILLTOPS OF NW PA SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL MONITOR THIS
POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST SUNDAY. LAKE
ENHANCED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL LINGER IN THE FAR EASTERN PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE LAKE THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY.
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES ZONAL THE SECOND HALF OF SUNDAY WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. BY
MONDAY MORNING ANOTHER VORT MAX DIVES SOUTH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
AND THE SURFACE HIGH TRANSLATES OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. A WEAK
SURFACE LOW WILL FORM IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE...AND MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE MEASURABLE RAINFALL ON
MONDAY. WHILE THE AREA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW MOST OF
MONDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50`S.
THE RAIN WILL LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY AND EVENTUALLY COME TO AN END
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE HIGH FILLS AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD. THE REST OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE
DRY WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...DESPITE THE RIDGING.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR INDIANAPOLIS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. AS IT DOES IFR CONDITIONS
WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR AT TIMES THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
FRIDAY...THEN AGAIN ON SATURDAY IN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER INDIANA WILL MOVE TO NEAR LAKE ONTARIO
OVERNIGHT. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS ON LAKE ERIE WILL BACK TO NORTHWEST
BY THURSDAY MORNING AND THEN SOUTHWEST AGAIN BY THURSDAY EVENING AS
THE LOW CURLS NW INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20
KNOTS ON EXTREME EASTERN LAKE ERIE BY THURSDAY EVENING...THEN
INCREASE TO 20-25 KNOTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY(EAST HALF) AS
THIS LOW MERGES WITH THE NEXT LOW MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ON THE EAST END
STARTING SOMETIME ON FRIDAY...EXPANDING TO ALL NEARSHORE WATERS
EARLY SATURDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. THE SMALL CRAFTS
WILL NEED TO LINGER INTO SUNDAY WHEN CONDITIONS START TO IMPROVE AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE LAKE.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA/LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...MAYERS
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...KEC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1143 PM CDT WED OCT 15 2014
.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 932 PM CDT WED OCT 15 2014/
UPDATE...
MIDEVENING GOES IR IMAGERY SHOWED MIDLEVEL OVERCAST CLOUDINESS...
ROUGHLY NORTHEAST OF A TUPELO TO MEMPHIS TO JONESBORO LINE.
DAYTIME TEMPS WERE CONSIDERABLY COOLER UNDER THE OVERCAST...BUT
LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WERE ALLOWING AREAS TO THE SOUTHWEST
TO COOL MORE QUICKLY.
SOME CONCERN FOR PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT...NEAR THE CLEARING LINE.
12Z HRRR MODEL PROGGED BRIEF /1 HOUR/ VISIBILITY REDUCTION TO 4
MILES NEAR CORINTH AND JACKSON...BUT OTHERWISE LITTLE FOG
POTENTIAL.
PWB
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 PM CDT WED OCT 15 2014/
UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT WED OCT 15 2014/
DISCUSSION...
CURRENT H5 ANALYSIS PLACES AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER CENTRAL
INDIANA WITH THE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL
KENTUCKY...EASTERN TENNESSEE...AND PORTIONS OF GEORGIA AND
ALABAMA. AN ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW IS ALSO CENTERED IN CENTRAL
INDIANA WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST. THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS BROAD UPPER TROUGH HAS PROVIDED CLOUD COVER
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY AND ALSO PRODUCED VERY LIGHT SHOWERS
EARLIER IN THE DAY. OVERNIGHT CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST WITH NO SIGNIFICANT POPS AS LOWS WILL
BE NEAR NORMAL FOR MID OCTOBER.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON
THURSDAY AS UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS BUILD OVER THE AREA. WINDS FROM
THE EAST WILL BE LIGHTER AND WILL SHIFT ON THURSDAY NIGHT TO BE
FROM THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER ON FRIDAY WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT. MOISTURE
WILL BE LIMITED WITH THIS FRONT...SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY
SIGNIFICANT POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER ON SATURDAY UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE RAIN FREE AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE
THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL PROVIDE PLEASANT CONDITIONS AND
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
MODELS INDICATE A SHORTWAVE MOVING JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
MIDSOUTH ON MONDAY. NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE LIES IN CURRENT
SOLUTIONS AND MODELS DO NOT INDICATE MUCH MOISTURE PRESENT FOR ANY
SIGNIFICANT POPS. FOR NOW HAVE JUST INCLUDED PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES FOR PARTS OF THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY PM WITH JUST
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR POPS. AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EAST
COAST MOVES FURTHER EAST...MODELS INDICATE A RIDGE MOVING INTO THE
REGION LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. THUS
HAVE KEPT CONDITIONS DRY LATE IN THE PERIOD.
ZDM
&&
AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
PATCHY MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT MKL/TUP BETWEEN 16/08-12Z.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE TO WEST WINDS BETWEEN 5-7 KTS AFTER
16/15Z...THEN BECOME LIGHT AFTER 17/00Z.
CJC
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
734 AM EDT THU OCT 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS OUR
REGION THROUGH TODAY. THIS FRONT WILL PROVIDE A SOAKING RAINFALL FOR
THE ENTIRE REGION...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. IT WILL TURN SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID
BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
ON SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY MUCH COOLER WEATHER FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 644 AM EDT...WIDESPREAD RAIN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING...AS GAPS IN THE RADAR ARE FILLING IN. LOCAL HI
RES MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR AND LOCAL WRF CONTINUE TO INDICATE
BANDS OF RAIN WILL TRACK FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OF THE REGION THIS
MORNING. EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS ARE APPARENT IN THE RADAR
IMAGERY...WHICH WILL ENHANCE RAINFALL RATES.
A WARM CONVEYOR-BELT OF MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN IS EVIDENT
IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...AS STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT IS
TRANSPORTING MOISTURE POLEWARD AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A
SPRAWLING CLOSED UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. AT THE
SURFACE...AN OCCLUDED BOUNDARY POSITIONED OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS WILL GRADUALLY PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE THE LOW LEVEL FOCUS FOR THE RAINFALL...WITH AN
IMPINGING LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET BRINGING SEVERAL BANDS OF MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING...PUSHING EASTWARD INTO
NE NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SO THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE. RAINFALL RATES COULD
EXCEED ONE HALF INCH PER HOUR AT TIMES...BUT FFG VALUES ARE VERY
HIGH /AROUND 2.5 TO 3 INCHES IN 3 HOURS/ AND ARE NOT LIKELY BE
EXCEEDED. DUE TO DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS MINIMAL IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME MINOR URBAN FLOODING
ESPECIALLY WHERE FALLEN LEAVES CLOG STORM DRAINS. REFER TO HYDRO
SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.
A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN NOTED SOUTH OF NYC EARLY THIS
MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS. WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...ALTHOUGH THE INSTABILITY WILL
BE MAINLY ELEVATED WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER LIMITING SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY /5 PERCENT OR LESS/ FOR SOME
OF THE CONVECTION SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY TO PRODUCE STRONG WIND
GUSTS AS THE 40-50 KT LOW LEVEL JET MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
HOWEVER...IT IS HIGHLY QUESTIONABLE THAT THESE WINDS WILL BE ABLE TO
MIX DOWN. SO WHILE A ROGUE STRONG WIND GUST CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...WIDESPREAD STRONG WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED WITH THE CONVECTION.
AS THE OCCLUDED BOUNDARY PROGRESSES EASTWARD AND THE UPPER LOW
STARTS TO TRACK NORTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION...THE
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT INTO INTERIOR AND COASTAL
NEW ENGLAND BY THIS EVENING. AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF ALBANY
WILL SEE THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT END LATER THIS MORNING...WITH HEAVY
RAIN FOR AREAS TO THE NORTH AND EAST TAPERING OFF TO SHOWERS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD TODAY WITH HUMID CONDITIONS ALSO
PERSISTING IN THE MOIST AIR MASS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE OCCLUDED BOUNDARY WILL PUSH EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND AND THIS
EVENING...AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACKS NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHEAST
CANADA. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL
STILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...LEAVING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS ESPECIALLY NORTH OF CAPITAL DISTRICT. SHOWERS WILL TEND TO
TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT AS WEAK SURFACE RIDGING OCCURS WITH THE FLOW
ALOFT STARTING TO BECOME MORE ZONAL. WHILE IT WILL BE COOLER THAN
RECENT NIGHTS...LOW TEMPS WILL STILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT TEMP CHANGE IN THE AIR MASS. IT WILL BE NOTICEABLE LESS
HUMID THOUGH.
FRIDAY WILL FEATURE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION...AS WE
WILL BE IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
STARTS TO DIG ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHEAST CANADA.
THERE COULD BE A FEW LIGHT UPSLOPE SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...BUT MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE RAIN-FREE. TEMPS WILL
STILL BE QUITE MILD WITH DEEPER MIXING EXPECTED. HIGHS COULD TOP 70
FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD.
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD INTO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS
OUT AREA WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS FAR WESTERN ZONES BY
SUNRISE. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SOMEWHAT MOISTURE-STARVED BUT WILL
HAVE GOOD DYNAMICS TO WORK WITH. MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...WITH LIKELY POPS CONFINED TO THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT TEMPS SHOULD WARM WELL INTO THE 60S
FROM GENERALLY THE HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE LONGWAVE PATTERN
AND HAVE IT AMPLIFYING AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK WITH A RIDGING
BUILDING OVER ROCKIES AND PLAINS AND SHORT WAVE ENERGY MAINTAINING
AND DEEPENING THE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THE GUIDANCE
INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE REGION BY MID
WEEK...HOWEVER THERE ARE DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODELS ON ITS
EVOLUTION. WHAT ALL THIS MEANS IS A COOL PATTERN FOR THE REGION.
THE REGION WILL BE UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD AIR ADVECTION SUNDAY
AS AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. WE ARE LOOKING AT
COOL DAY WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND BRISK
WESTERLY WINDS MAKING IT FEEL CHILLIER.
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL BRIEFLY BECOME ZONAL
BETWEEN SHORT WAVE TROUGHS AS WE START THE NEW WORK WEEK. WHILE
AT THE SURFACE SOME RIDGING WILL BUILD IN BUT SHOULD QUICKLY SHIFT
OFFSHORE. A SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA WILL
RETURN THE TROUGH TO THE REGION WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO FORM OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WOULD CAUSE THE SURFACE
LOW TO TRACK TO OUR SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TO MID ATLANTIC
REGION. WITH THE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF
THIS SYSTEM HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LARGE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. ITS ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD IN ADVANCE
OF BOUNDARY AND LOW AND INCREASE IN INTENSITY THIS MORNING AS A LOW
LEVEL JET MOVES INTO THE REGION. CAN NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBLE FOR A
THUNDERSTORM...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDED
MENTION IN TAFS. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE OCCLUDED BOUNDARY THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DECREASES.
OVERALL EXPECTED MVFR CONDITIONS WITH POSSIBLE BRIEF IFR IN
HEAVIER SHOWERS AHEAD AND WITH THE BOUNDARY. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...HOWEVER CONDITIONS MAY LOWER TOWARD DAYBREAK IN SOME
AREAS DUE TO PATCHY GROUND FOG FORMATION.
EAST-SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. HAVE LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN TAFS AS THE LOW LEVEL JET MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION THIS MORNING. SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
IN THE EVENING AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SAT-SAT NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUN: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUN NIGHT-MON: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS OUR
REGION THROUGH TODAY. THIS FRONT WILL PROVIDE A SOAKING RAINFALL FOR
THE ENTIRE REGION...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. IT WILL TURN SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID
BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
ON SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY MUCH COOLER WEATHER FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF ONLY 65 TO 80
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND 90 TO 100 PERCENT. MINIMUM RH VALUES FORECAST TO DROP TO
BETWEEN 45 TO 65 PERCENT ON FRIDAY.
WINDS TODAY WILL BE SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25
MPH. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AROUND 5 MPH TONIGHT...SHIFTING TO
THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH FOR FRIDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A SOAKING RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY AS SEVERAL BANDS OF
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MOVE THROUGH. MOST AREAS SHOULD
RECEIVE AROUND 1-2 INCHES OF RAINFALL...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
GENERALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CATSKILLS AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
HOWEVER...RAINFALL WILL VARY SPATIALLY...AS LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE PERSISTENT CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS OCCUR.
PONDING OF WATER IS LIKELY WHERE FALLEN LEAVES CLOG STORM DRAINS.
MINOR URBAN FLOODING IS POSSIBLE DUE TO RAPID RUNOFF.
OTHERWISE...DUE TO ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS PRODUCING UNUSUALLY LOW
WATER LEVELS...RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. SOME WITHIN BANK
RISES ARE EXPECTED. THE LATEST METEOROLOGICAL MODEL ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS /MMEFS/ CONTINUE TO INDICATE RIVER LEVELS IN OUR HSA WILL
REMAIN BELOW CAUTION STAGE THROUGH THE EVENT.
THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL PUSH EAST OF THE REGION BY TONIGHT...WITH
JUST SOME LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO FRIDAY. ANY ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL WILL BE LIGHT AND WILL NOT HAVE ANY FURTHER IMPACT ON
RIVERS.
ALSO THE LATEST METEOROLOGICAL MODEL ENSEMBLE FORECASTS /MMEFS/
INDICATE RIVER LEVELS IN OUR HSA WILL REMAIN BELOW CAUTION STAGE
THROUGH THE EVENT.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.CLIMATE...
TEMPERATURE RECORDS WERE SET...
ALBANY...
THE LOW TEMPERATURE WAS ONLY 70 DEGREES FOR OCTOBER 15TH. THIS
BREAKS THE OLD RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR THE DATE OF 66
DEGREES SET BACK IN 1954.
IN ADDITION...THE 70 DEGREE MINIMUM ALSO TIES FOR THE HIGHEST
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR THE MONTH OF OCTOBER WHICH OCCURRED BACK ON
OCTOBER 5 IN 1926.
NOTE: DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874.
A RECORD EVENT REPORT WAS ISSUED.
POUGHKEEPSIE...
THE LOW TEMPERATURE WAS ONLY 69 DEGREES FOR OCTOBER 15TH. THIS
BREAKS THE OLD RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR THE DATE OF 65
DEGREES SET BACK IN 1954.
IN ADDITION...THE 69 DEGREE MINIMUM ALSO TIES FOR THE HIGHEST
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR THE MONTH OF OCTOBER WHICH OCCURRED BACK ON
OCTOBER 7 IN 2005.
NOTE...DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949...HOWEVER DATA IS MISSING
FROM JANUARY 1993 TO JULY 2000.
A RECORD EVENT REPORT WAS ISSUED.
GLENS FALLS...
THE HIGH TEMPERATURE WAS 78 DEGREES FOR OCTOBER 15TH. THIS BREAKS
THE RECORD FOR THE DATE OF 77 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1956.
NOTE...DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949.
A RECORD EVENT REPORT WAS ISSUED.
THIS WAS THE SECOND RECORD HIGH FOR GLENS FALLS...ON OCTOBER 14TH
THE HIGH WAS 78 DEGREES WHICH BROKE THE OLD RECORD OF 76 DEGREES SET
BACK IN 1956. A RECORD EVENT REPORT WAS ISSUED.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA/KL
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...JPV
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
644 AM EDT THU OCT 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS OUR
REGION THROUGH TODAY. THIS FRONT WILL PROVIDE A SOAKING RAINFALL FOR
THE ENTIRE REGION...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. IT WILL TURN SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID
BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
ON SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY MUCH COOLER WEATHER FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 644 AM EDT...WIDESPREAD RAIN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING...AS GAPS IN THE RADAR ARE FILLING IN. LOCAL HI
RES MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR AND LOCAL WRF CONTINUE TO INDICATE
BANDS OF RAIN WILL TRACK FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OF THE REGION THIS
MORNING. EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS ARE APPARENT IN THE RADAR
IMAGERY...WHICH WILL ENHANCE RAINFALL RATES.
A WARM CONVEYOR-BELT OF MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN IS EVIDENT
IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...AS STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT IS
TRANSPORTING MOISTURE POLEWARD AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A
SPRAWLING CLOSED UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. AT THE
SURFACE...AN OCCLUDED BOUNDARY POSITIONED OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS WILL GRADUALLY PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE THE LOW LEVEL FOCUS FOR THE RAINFALL...WITH AN
IMPINGING LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET BRINGING SEVERAL BANDS OF MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING...PUSHING EASTWARD INTO
NE NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SO THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE. RAINFALL RATES COULD
EXCEED ONE HALF INCH PER HOUR AT TIMES...BUT FFG VALUES ARE VERY
HIGH /AROUND 2.5 TO 3 INCHES IN 3 HOURS/ AND ARE NOT LIKELY BE
EXCEEDED. DUE TO DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS MINIMAL IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME MINOR URBAN FLOODING
ESPECIALLY WHERE FALLEN LEAVES CLOG STORM DRAINS. REFER TO HYDRO
SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.
A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN NOTED SOUTH OF NYC EARLY THIS
MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS. WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...ALTHOUGH THE INSTABILITY WILL
BE MAINLY ELEVATED WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER LIMITING SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY /5 PERCENT OR LESS/ FOR SOME
OF THE CONVECTION SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY TO PRODUCE STRONG WIND
GUSTS AS THE 40-50 KT LOW LEVEL JET MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
HOWEVER...IT IS HIGHLY QUESTIONABLE THAT THESE WINDS WILL BE ABLE TO
MIX DOWN. SO WHILE A ROGUE STRONG WIND GUST CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...WIDESPREAD STRONG WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED WITH THE CONVECTION.
AS THE OCCLUDED BOUNDARY PROGRESSES EASTWARD AND THE UPPER LOW
STARTS TO TRACK NORTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION...THE
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT INTO INTERIOR AND COASTAL
NEW ENGLAND BY THIS EVENING. AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF ALBANY
WILL SEE THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT END LATER THIS MORNING...WITH HEAVY
RAIN FOR AREAS TO THE NORTH AND EAST TAPERING OFF TO SHOWERS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD TODAY WITH HUMID CONDITIONS ALSO
PERSISTING IN THE MOIST AIR MASS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE OCCLUDED BOUNDARY WILL PUSH EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND AND THIS
EVENING...AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACKS NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHEAST
CANADA. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL
STILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...LEAVING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS ESPECIALLY NORTH OF CAPITAL DISTRICT. SHOWERS WILL TEND TO
TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT AS WEAK SURFACE RIDGING OCCURS WITH THE FLOW
ALOFT STARTING TO BECOME MORE ZONAL. WHILE IT WILL BE COOLER THAN
RECENT NIGHTS...LOW TEMPS WILL STILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT TEMP CHANGE IN THE AIR MASS. IT WILL BE NOTICEABLE LESS
HUMID THOUGH.
FRIDAY WILL FEATURE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION...AS WE
WILL BE IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
STARTS TO DIG ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHEAST CANADA.
THERE COULD BE A FEW LIGHT UPSLOPE SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...BUT MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE RAIN-FREE. TEMPS WILL
STILL BE QUITE MILD WITH DEEPER MIXING EXPECTED. HIGHS COULD TOP 70
FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD.
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD INTO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS
OUT AREA WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS FAR WESTERN ZONES BY
SUNRISE. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SOMEWHAT MOISTURE-STARVED BUT WILL
HAVE GOOD DYNAMICS TO WORK WITH. MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...WITH LIKELY POPS CONFINED TO THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT TEMPS SHOULD WARM WELL INTO THE 60S
FROM GENERALLY THE HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE LONGWAVE PATTERN
AND HAVE IT AMPLIFYING AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK WITH A RIDGING
BUILDING OVER ROCKIES AND PLAINS AND SHORT WAVE ENERGY MAINTAINING
AND DEEPENING THE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THE GUIDANCE
INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE REGION BY MID
WEEK...HOWEVER THERE ARE DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODELS ON ITS
EVOLUTION. WHAT ALL THIS MEANS IS A COOL PATTERN FOR THE REGION.
THE REGION WILL BE UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD AIR ADVECTION SUNDAY
AS AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. WE ARE LOOKING AT
COOL DAY WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND BRISK
WESTERLY WINDS MAKING IT FEEL CHILLIER.
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL BRIEFLY BECOME ZONAL
BETWEEN SHORT WAVE TROUGHS AS WE START THE NEW WORK WEEK. WHILE
AT THE SURFACE SOME RIDGING WILL BUILD IN BUT SHOULD QUICKLY SHIFT
OFFSHORE. A SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA WILL
RETURN THE TROUGH TO THE REGION WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO FORM OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WOULD CAUSE THE SURFACE
LOW TO TRACK TO OUR SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TO MID ATLANTIC
REGION. WITH THE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF
THIS SYSTEM HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LARGE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. ITS ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD IN ADVANCE
OF BOUNDARY AND LOW AND INCREASE IN INTENSITY THIS MORNING AS A LOW
LEVEL JET MOVES INTO THE REGION. CAN NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBLE FOR A
THUNDERSTORM...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDED
MENTION IN TAFS. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE OCCLUDED BOUNDARY THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DECREASES.
OVERALL EXPECTED MVFR CONDITIONS WITH IFR IN HEAVIER SHOWERS AHEAD
OF THE BOUNDARY. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. CEILINGS MAY IMPROVE TO VFR FOR A PERIOD IN THE
EVENING HOWEVER SOME FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.
EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. HAVE LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR IN TAFS AS THE LOW LEVEL JET MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING. SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST IN THE EVENING
AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SAT-SAT NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUN: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUN NIGHT-MON: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS OUR
REGION THROUGH TODAY. THIS FRONT WILL PROVIDE A SOAKING RAINFALL FOR
THE ENTIRE REGION...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. IT WILL TURN SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID
BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
ON SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY MUCH COOLER WEATHER FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF ONLY 65 TO 80
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND 90 TO 100 PERCENT. MINIMUM RH VALUES FORECAST TO DROP TO
BETWEEN 45 TO 65 PERCENT ON FRIDAY.
WINDS TODAY WILL BE SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25
MPH. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AROUND 5 MPH TONIGHT...SHIFTING TO
THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH FOR FRIDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A SOAKING RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY AS SEVERAL BANDS OF
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MOVE THROUGH. MOST AREAS SHOULD
RECEIVE AROUND 1-2 INCHES OF RAINFALL...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
GENERALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CATSKILLS AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
HOWEVER...RAINFALL WILL VARY SPATIALLY...AS LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE PERSISTENT CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS OCCUR.
PONDING OF WATER IS LIKELY WHERE FALLEN LEAVES CLOG STORM DRAINS.
MINOR URBAN FLOODING IS POSSIBLE DUE TO RAPID RUNOFF.
OTHERWISE...DUE TO ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS PRODUCING UNUSUALLY LOW
WATER LEVELS...RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. SOME WITHIN BANK
RISES ARE EXPECTED. THE LATEST METEOROLOGICAL MODEL ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS /MMEFS/ CONTINUE TO INDICATE RIVER LEVELS IN OUR HSA WILL
REMAIN BELOW CAUTION STAGE THROUGH THE EVENT.
THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL PUSH EAST OF THE REGION BY TONIGHT...WITH
JUST SOME LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO FRIDAY. ANY ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL WILL BE LIGHT AND WILL NOT HAVE ANY FURTHER IMPACT ON
RIVERS.
ALSO THE LATEST METEOROLOGICAL MODEL ENSEMBLE FORECASTS /MMEFS/
INDICATE RIVER LEVELS IN OUR HSA WILL REMAIN BELOW CAUTION STAGE
THROUGH THE EVENT.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.CLIMATE...
TEMPERATURE RECORDS WERE SET...
ALBANY...
THE LOW TEMPERATURE WAS ONLY 70 DEGREES FOR OCTOBER 15TH. THIS
BREAKS THE OLD RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR THE DATE OF 66
DEGREES SET BACK IN 1954.
IN ADDITION...THE 70 DEGREE MINIMUM ALSO TIES FOR THE HIGHEST
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR THE MONTH OF OCTOBER WHICH OCCURRED BACK ON
OCTOBER 5 IN 1926.
NOTE: DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874.
A RECORD EVENT REPORT WAS ISSUED.
POUGHKEEPSIE...
THE LOW TEMPERATURE WAS ONLY 69 DEGREES FOR OCTOBER 15TH. THIS
BREAKS THE OLD RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR THE DATE OF 65
DEGREES SET BACK IN 1954.
IN ADDITION...THE 69 DEGREE MINIMUM ALSO TIES FOR THE HIGHEST
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR THE MONTH OF OCTOBER WHICH OCCURRED BACK ON
OCTOBER 7 IN 2005.
NOTE...DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949...HOWEVER DATA IS MISSING
FROM JANUARY 1993 TO JULY 2000.
A RECORD EVENT REPORT WAS ISSUED.
GLENS FALLS...
THE HIGH TEMPERATURE WAS 78 DEGREES FOR OCTOBER 15TH. THIS BREAKS
THE RECORD FOR THE DATE OF 77 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1956.
NOTE...DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949.
A RECORD EVENT REPORT WAS ISSUED.
THIS WAS THE SECOND RECORD HIGH FOR GLENS FALLS...ON OCTOBER 14TH
THE HIGH WAS 78 DEGREES WHICH BROKE THE OLD RECORD OF 76 DEGREES SET
BACK IN 1956. A RECORD EVENT REPORT WAS ISSUED.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...JPV
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1103 AM CDT THU OCT 16 2014
.DISCUSSION...
1029 AM CDT
CONTINUED TO SLOW THE CLEARING TREND WITH THE STRATUS DECK
OVERHEAD THIS MORNING. THERE ARE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS NOTED
ON LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY...BUT THOSE QUICKLY FILL BACK IN WHILE
LOW CEILINGS OVER WEST AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS ARE NOT REALLY
MOVING. SO HAVE SLOWED THE CLEARING TREND FOR THESE MORE TOWARDS
THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON TIME FRAME AS THIS WESTERN EDGE ERODES
AND SHIFTS EAST...WITH THE EASTERN AREAS NOT LIKELY OBSERVING
CLEAR SKIES UNTIL EARLY THIS EVENING. REMOVED POPS THIS MORNING
BUT DID MAKE MENTION OF PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE MAINLY FOR THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA...WITH ONGOING DRIZZLE LIKELY PERSISTING
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS WEAK ASCENT CONTINUES WITHIN THE
OBSERVED SHALLOW MOIST LAYER.
RODRIGUEZ
//PREV DISCUSSION...
340 AM CDT
EARLY MORNING GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS OUR OLD UPPER
SPINNING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION OVER WISCONSIN AND ILLINOIS. SHEARED
OUT SHORT WAVE ENERGY/VORTICITY CHANNEL RUNNING NORTH-SOUTH
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE
WITHIN THE MOIST LOW-MID LEVEL ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION... THOUGH THIS LIGHT/SPOTTY PRECIP SHOULD MOVE
OFF TO THE EAST THIS MORNING WITH THE CONTINUED EASTWARD DRIFT OF
THE UPPER TROUGH. CLEARING LINE OVER FAR WESTERN IL/WI EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL ALSO MOVE SLOWLY EAST...WITH LOW CLOUD COVER EXPECTED
TO ERODE OVER NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS DURING THE MORNING AND ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF NORTHERN IL BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH SUBSIDENCE IN
REGION OF RISING HEIGHTS AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE UPPER RIDGE WHICH
MOVES INTO THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. GRADIENT IN CLOUD
COVERAGE WILL MAKE FOR A CONTRAST IN TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CWA
TODAY...WITH WESTERN AREAS WARMING INTO THE MID 60S WITH
CONSIDERABLE SUN WHILE EASTERN AREAS THAT ARE LAST TO CLEAR TOP
OUT AROUND 60.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS QUICKLY TO ANOTHER STRONG SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY
MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THIS MORNING. THIS WAVE IS ALSO
PROGGED CLOSE OFF IN THE MID-LEVELS AS IT TRACKS EAST ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER TODAY...BEFORE DIGGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AND CARVING OUT A LARGE LONG-WAVE
TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA AS THIS SYSTEM COMBINES WITH AND
NEARLY FUJI-WARAS WITH OLD CLOSED LOW TO OUR EAST. SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE DAKOTAS IN RESPONSE TO THIS SECOND WAVE WILL
MOVE TO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH A PACIFIC
COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA VERY EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. THE AIR MASS BEHIND THIS FRONT IS NOT SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER
THAN THE ONE CURRENTLY OVER THE MIDWEST...THUS TEMPS FRIDAY EXPECTED
TO AGAIN BE IN THE LOW-MID 60S WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS NEAR 30 MPH.
THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TOWARD
EVENING...WITH A SECONDARY PUSH OF COOLER AIR AS SURFACE WINDS SHIFT
NORTHWEST FRIDAY EVENING. WHILE A FEW SPRINKLES CANNOT BE RULED OUT
IN COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THIS SECONDARY FRONT FRIDAY EVENING...THE
BEST ORGANIZED FORCING FOR DEEPER LIFT AND MORE ORGANIZED PRECIP
PRODUCTION WILL REMAIN MAINLY NORTH/EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE STRONG SHORT WAVE AND EVOLVING LONG-WAVE TROUGH AXIS ARE OFF TO
THE EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING...THOUGH GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN BRINGING ANOTHER QUICK MOVING LOWER AMPLITUDE SHORT
WAVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY. WHILE THIS MAY KEEP
CLOUD COVER ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...THE
GREATEST THREAT OF SHOWERS AGAIN REMAINS OVER THE LAKE AND ACROSS
AREAS EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE CWA. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE IN
STORE BEHIND FRIDAY EVENINGS SECONDARY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS BACK IN THE LOW-MID 50S SATURDAY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SPREADS INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY TO OUR EAST...SETTING THE STAGE FOR
CLEARING SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND COLD OVERNIGHT TEMPS. CURRENT
INDICATIONS ARE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY DROP TO AROUND THE
FREEZING MARK ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST IL AWAY
FROM THE CHICAGO HEAT ISLAND BY SUNDAY MORNING. A GOOD FROST IS
LIKELY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING CONDITIONS IN SOME SPOTS.
THE SURFACE HIGH THEN MOVES EAST DURING THE DAY AS UPPER FLOW
PATTERN REMAINS VERY PROGRESSIVE...WITH WINDS SHIFTING SOUTH BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT DIGGING SHORT WAVE WHICH IS
PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. ONCE AGAIN DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING AND
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS LIMITED...THOUGH STRONGER FORCING IS A LITTLE
FURTHER SOUTH WITH THIS SYSTEM THAN THOSE EARLIER IN THE WEEKEND.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LAKES BY MONDAY
EVENING WITH THE COLD FRONT CLEARING THE CWA BY MONDAY NIGHT.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEPICT A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF NORTH AMERICA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
OUR MONDAY SYSTEM CLOSES OFF OVER THE EAST COAST. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS SLOWLY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DURING THIS TIME...
WITH A PERIOD OF QUIET/DRY WEATHER THROUGH MID-WEEK. NORTHEAST-EAST
LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH MAY LIMIT OUR WARMING BENEATH
THE UPPER RIDGE...THOUGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AT LEAST RETURN TO LATE
OCTOBER NORMALS OR A LITTLE BETTER.
RATZER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...
* IFR/LOW MVFR CIGS VERY SLOWLY IMPROVING THROUGH THE DAY.
KJB/BMD
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 16Z...
MADE MODERATE CHANGES TO THE TIMING OF LIFTING CIGS TODAY TAKING A
MUCH MORE PESSIMISTIC APPROACH CLOSER TO RAP/NAM GUIDANCE. SOME
PATCHY DRIZZLE ACROSS THE AREA MAY OCCASIONALLY IMPACT THE
TERMINALS TODAY TOO.
BMD
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...12Z...
IFR TO LOW END MVFR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE INTO THIS
AFTERNOON AS WESTERLY WINDS TRANSPORT A DRIER AIRMASS OVER THE
AREA LATER TODAY. WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS
SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE SOME STRONG GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
AREA ON FRIDAY.
KJB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...
* LOW WITH CIG TRENDS TODAY.
* HIGH WITH ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.
KJB/BMD
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
* FRIDAY NIGHT...DRY/VFR. GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS.
* SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...DRY/VFR.
* MONDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
* TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...DRY/VFR. EASTERLY WINDS.
KJB
&&
.MARINE...
148 AM CDT
WINDS ACROSS THE LAKE WILL BACK WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY AND REMAIN AROUND
10 KT DURING THE DAY TODAY AS A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OVER THE WESTERN LAKES. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A FAIRLY QUIET
WEATHER DAY OVER THE LAKE TODAY.
THE NEXT WEATHER EVENT OF INCREASING INTEREST IS THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER NORTH DAKOTA. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT
EASTWARD ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BOARDER TODAY AND APPROACH LAKE
SUPERIOR BY LATE TONIGHT. FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO MERGE THIS LOW
WITH ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO BY
FRIDAY...THEN DEEPEN THE LOW TO AROUND 29.1 INCHES AS IT SHIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN QUEBEC LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS WEATHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO RESULT IN INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS UP
IN THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE OVER THE LAKE ON FRIDAY. A STRONG COLD
FRONT LOOKS TO SHIFT OVER THE LAKE LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...LIKELY RESULTING IN A NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHIFT...WITH EVEN
STRONGER SPEEDS. GALE FORCE WINDS OF 35 TO 40 KT APPEAR PROBABLE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE LAKE FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY BEFORE THE
WINDS BEGIN ABATING.
FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OVER THE WESTERN
LAKES REGION BY SUNDAY...RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF LIGHTER WINDS.
HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THE WINDS COULD INCREASE A BIT OVER THE LAKE
AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM SHIFTS
OVER THE WESTERN LAKES REGION. THIS APPEARS TO BE A WEAKER SYSTEM AT
THIS POINT...THUS GALE FORCE WINDS APPEAR UNLIKELY WITH THIS
EVENT.
KJB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...GALE WATCH...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-LMZ567-
LMZ868...7 PM FRIDAY TO 7 PM SATURDAY.
GALE WATCH...LMZ080-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-
LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...7 PM FRIDAY TO 3 PM
SATURDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1038 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1038 AM CDT THU OCT 16 2014
Persistent upper low that has brought several days of clouds and
showers to the Midwest is slowly exiting the region this morning,
with latest water vapor imagery showing it located over Ohio.
Cloud cover from this feature still blankets much of central
Illinois: however, skies have cleared along/west of a Galesburg to
Jacksonville line. Clearing is making only very slow eastward
progress, with satellite timing tools suggesting east-central
Illinois will likely remain overcast through the afternoon.
Meanwhile further west, skies will become mostly sunny along/west
of the I-55 corridor. High temperatures will range from around 60
along the Indiana border to the upper 60s in the Illinois River
Valley. Will make some updates to hourly sky/temp grids and send a
zone update out shortly.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT THU OCT 16 2014
Deep upper low over Ohio this morning, keeping cloud cover all the
way back into Illinois under northerly/cyclonic flow. Back edge to
the clouds pretty distinct this morning to the west, just east of
the Mississippi River Valley. Weak ridging moving out of the
Plains, but the cut off low is very slow to move out of the region
until the kicker moves in. Said wave is over Montana this morning
and slated to move in late tonight, though the upper low will begin
its easterly drift today. Very slow in going anywhere, the big
question for today is the timing of the back edge/clearing.
850mb-700mb moisture profiles pretty similar btwn GFS and NAM...with
the HRRR also slow to clear today. Most of the CWA remains under
cloudy skies this morning...slowly clearing the western half of the
state by mid day. As a result, cooler in the east.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT THU OCT 16 2014
With the upper low moving out today and tonight...northwesterly flow
briefly kicks in...with kicker wave diving into the larger scale
trof and spinning around the exiting system. New wave bringing a
weak sfc boundary that is barely a shift of winds. Cold front
expected to pass with little notice on Friday. However weak, an
increasing pressure gradient at the surface and some higher winds
aloft will result in a breezy day with 20mph winds in the northern
half of the state sustained...gusting 25-30. Ridge builds in for the
weekend and the forecast remains dry with highs in the 50s and a
chilly Sunday morning. Next chance for precip very small and in
response to another wave moving into the Upper Midwest late
Sunday/Monday. In fact, the ECMWF is the only model persistent with
this feature actually pushing any QPF. The GFS has the wave, but
remains dry this far south. Weak southerly flow and cloud cover
will make Sunday night a little warmer than Sat night. Better precip
chances will be further to the north, as the wave is running into a
weak ridge over the region. That being said, silent slight chances
on Sun night/Mon remain the only precip in the forecast. Sfc
ridging and slightly cooler than seasonal norms expected in the
remainder of the 7 day forecast.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT THU OCT 16 2014
MVFR and IFR, with some patchy VLIFR conditons are expected for
the next several hours before we see conditions slowly improve
from west to east later this morning. Satellite data and surface
obs indicate widespread IFR and MVFR cigs were across our area
with KBMI just recently reporting 1/4sm in fog. The backedge of
the clouds was located from just west of Galesburg to just east of
Winchester with boundary layer winds remaining out of the north,
taking the cloud shield from north to south this morning. So as
long as the winds just off the surface remain northerly, its going
to be tough to get the clouds to shift east and track out of our
area until later this morning. It appears as the surface ridge
axis shifts across the area later this morning, boundary layer
winds will start to become more southwesterly which will help push
the lower clouds east with the clearing taking place first at PIA
and SPI, and then by early afternoon we should see BMI and DEC go
at least broken on the MVFR cloud deck while CMI remains overcast
until 21z or later.
Surface winds will start out from the northwest this morning and
then back more into the west and southwest during the afternoon
over most of the area. Wind speeds will average around 10 kts
today. Southerly winds at 5 to 10 kts expected tonight ahead of a
cold front that is slated to move through the TAF sites Friday
morning. With most areas expected to see a mostly clear sky
tonight, we may see some patchy fog form late but winds may hold
up enough to prevent any widespread development. For now will not
include in this set of TAFs but may need to be addressed in later
forecasts.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Barnes
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Smith
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
907 AM CDT THU OCT 16 2014
.DISCUSSION...
340 AM CDT
EARLY MORNING GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS OUR OLD UPPER
SPINNING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION OVER WISCONSIN AND ILLINOIS. SHEARED
OUT SHORT WAVE ENERGY/VORTICITY CHANNEL RUNNING NORTH-SOUTH
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE
WITHIN THE MOIST LOW-MID LEVEL ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION... THOUGH THIS LIGHT/SPOTTY PRECIP SHOULD MOVE
OFF TO THE EAST THIS MORNING WITH THE CONTINUED EASTWARD DRIFT OF
THE UPPER TROUGH. CLEARING LINE OVER FAR WESTERN IL/WI EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL ALSO MOVE SLOWLY EAST...WITH LOW CLOUD COVER EXPECTED
TO ERODE OVER NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS DURING THE MORNING AND ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF NORTHERN IL BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH SUBSIDENCE IN
REGION OF RISING HEIGHTS AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE UPPER RIDGE WHICH
MOVES INTO THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. GRADIENT IN CLOUD
COVERAGE WILL MAKE FOR A CONTRAST IN TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CWA
TODAY...WITH WESTERN AREAS WARMING INTO THE MID 60S WITH
CONSIDERABLE SUN WHILE EASTERN AREAS THAT ARE LAST TO CLEAR TOP
OUT AROUND 60.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS QUICKLY TO ANOTHER STRONG SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY
MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THIS MORNING. THIS WAVE IS ALSO
PROGGED CLOSE OFF IN THE MID-LEVELS AS IT TRACKS EAST ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER TODAY...BEFORE DIGGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AND CARVING OUT A LARGE LONG-WAVE
TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA AS THIS SYSTEM COMBINES WITH AND
NEARLY FUJI-WARAS WITH OLD CLOSED LOW TO OUR EAST. SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE DAKOTAS IN RESPONSE TO THIS SECOND WAVE WILL
MOVE TO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH A PACIFIC
COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA VERY EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. THE AIR MASS BEHIND THIS FRONT IS NOT SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER
THAN THE ONE CURRENTLY OVER THE MIDWEST...THUS TEMPS FRIDAY EXPECTED
TO AGAIN BE IN THE LOW-MID 60S WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS NEAR 30 MPH.
THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TOWARD
EVENING...WITH A SECONDARY PUSH OF COOLER AIR AS SURFACE WINDS SHIFT
NORTHWEST FRIDAY EVENING. WHILE A FEW SPRINKLES CANNOT BE RULED OUT
IN COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THIS SECONDARY FRONT FRIDAY EVENING...THE
BEST ORGANIZED FORCING FOR DEEPER LIFT AND MORE ORGANIZED PRECIP
PRODUCTION WILL REMAIN MAINLY NORTH/EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE STRONG SHORT WAVE AND EVOLVING LONG-WAVE TROUGH AXIS ARE OFF TO
THE EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING...THOUGH GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN BRINGING ANOTHER QUICK MOVING LOWER AMPLITUDE SHORT
WAVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY. WHILE THIS MAY KEEP
CLOUD COVER ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...THE
GREATEST THREAT OF SHOWERS AGAIN REMAINS OVER THE LAKE AND ACROSS
AREAS EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE CWA. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE IN
STORE BEHIND FRIDAY EVENINGS SECONDARY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS BACK IN THE LOW-MID 50S SATURDAY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SPREADS INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY TO OUR EAST...SETTING THE STAGE FOR
CLEARING SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND COLD OVERNIGHT TEMPS. CURRENT
INDICATIONS ARE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY DROP TO AROUND THE
FREEZING MARK ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST IL AWAY
FROM THE CHICAGO HEAT ISLAND BY SUNDAY MORNING. A GOOD FROST IS
LIKELY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING CONDITIONS IN SOME SPOTS.
THE SURFACE HIGH THEN MOVES EAST DURING THE DAY AS UPPER FLOW
PATTERN REMAINS VERY PROGRESSIVE...WITH WINDS SHIFTING SOUTH BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT DIGGING SHORT WAVE WHICH IS
PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. ONCE AGAIN DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING AND
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS LIMITED...THOUGH STRONGER FORCING IS A LITTLE
FURTHER SOUTH WITH THIS SYSTEM THAN THOSE EARLIER IN THE WEEKEND.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LAKES BY MONDAY
EVENING WITH THE COLD FRONT CLEARING THE CWA BY MONDAY NIGHT.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEPICT A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF NORTH AMERICA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
OUR MONDAY SYSTEM CLOSES OFF OVER THE EAST COAST. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS SLOWLY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DURING THIS TIME...
WITH A PERIOD OF QUIET/DRY WEATHER THROUGH MID-WEEK. NORTHEAST-EAST
LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH MAY LIMIT OUR WARMING BENEATH
THE UPPER RIDGE...THOUGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AT LEAST RETURN TO LATE
OCTOBER NORMALS OR A LITTLE BETTER.
RATZER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 14Z...
* IFR/LOW MVFR CIGS VERY SLOWLY IMPROVING THROUGH THE DAY.
KJB/BMD
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
IFR TO LOW END MVFR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE INTO THIS
AFTERNOON AS WESTERLY WINDS TRANSPORT A DRIER AIRMASS OVER THE
AREA LATER TODAY. WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS
SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE SOME STRONG GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
AREA ON FRIDAY.
KJB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 14Z...
* MEDIUM WITH CIG TRENDS TODAY.
* HIGH WITH ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.
KJB/BMD
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
* FRIDAY NIGHT...DRY/VFR. GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS.
* SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...DRY/VFR.
* MONDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
* TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...DRY/VFR. EASTERLY WINDS.
KJB
&&
.MARINE...
148 AM CDT
WINDS ACROSS THE LAKE WILL BACK WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY AND REMAIN AROUND
10 KT DURING THE DAY TODAY AS A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OVER THE WESTERN LAKES. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A FAIRLY QUIET
WEATHER DAY OVER THE LAKE TODAY.
THE NEXT WEATHER EVENT OF INCREASING INTEREST IS THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER NORTH DAKOTA. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT
EASTWARD ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BOARDER TODAY AND APPROACH LAKE
SUPERIOR BY LATE TONIGHT. FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO MERGE THIS LOW
WITH ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO BY
FRIDAY...THEN DEEPEN THE LOW TO AROUND 29.1 INCHES AS IT SHIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN QUEBEC LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS WEATHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO RESULT IN INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS UP
IN THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE OVER THE LAKE ON FRIDAY. A STRONG COLD
FRONT LOOKS TO SHIFT OVER THE LAKE LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...LIKELY RESULTING IN A NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHIFT...WITH EVEN
STRONGER SPEEDS. GALE FORCE WINDS OF 35 TO 40 KT APPEAR PROBABLE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE LAKE FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY BEFORE THE
WINDS BEGIN ABATING.
FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OVER THE WESTERN
LAKES REGION BY SUNDAY...RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF LIGHTER WINDS.
HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THE WINDS COULD INCREASE A BIT OVER THE LAKE
AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM SHIFTS
OVER THE WESTERN LAKES REGION. THIS APPEARS TO BE A WEAKER SYSTEM AT
THIS POINT...THUS GALE FORCE WINDS APPEAR UNLIKELY WITH THIS
EVENT.
KJB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...GALE WATCH...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-LMZ567-
LMZ868...7 PM FRIDAY TO 7 PM SATURDAY.
GALE WATCH...LMZ080-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-
LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...7 PM FRIDAY TO 3 PM
SATURDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
611 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2014
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT THU OCT 16 2014
Deep upper low over Ohio this morning, keeping cloud cover all the
way back into Illinois under northerly/cyclonic flow. Back edge to
the clouds pretty distinct this morning to the west, just east of
the Mississippi River Valley. Weak ridging moving out of the
Plains, but the cut off low is very slow to move out of the region
until the kicker moves in. Said wave is over Montana this morning
and slated to move in late tonight, though the upper low will begin
its easterly drift today. Very slow in going anywhere, the big
question for today is the timing of the back edge/clearing.
850mb-700mb moisture profiles pretty similar btwn GFS and NAM...with
the HRRR also slow to clear today. Most of the CWA remains under
cloudy skies this morning...slowly clearing the western half of the
state by mid day. As a result, cooler in the east.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT THU OCT 16 2014
With the upper low moving out today and tonight...northwesterly flow
briefly kicks in...with kicker wave diving into the larger scale
trof and spinning around the exiting system. New wave bringing a
weak sfc boundary that is barely a shift of winds. Cold front
expected to pass with little notice on Friday. However weak, an
increasing pressure gradient at the surface and some higher winds
aloft will result in a breezy day with 20mph winds in the northern
half of the state sustained...gusting 25-30. Ridge builds in for the
weekend and the forecast remains dry with highs in the 50s and a
chilly Sunday morning. Next chance for precip very small and in
response to another wave moving into the Upper Midwest late
Sunday/Monday. In fact, the ECMWF is the only model persistent with
this feature actually pushing any QPF. The GFS has the wave, but
remains dry this far south. Weak southerly flow and cloud cover
will make Sunday night a little warmer than Sat night. Better precip
chances will be further to the north, as the wave is running into a
weak ridge over the region. That being said, silent slight chances
on Sun night/Mon remain the only precip in the forecast. Sfc
ridging and slightly cooler than seasonal norms expected in the
remainder of the 7 day forecast.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT THU OCT 16 2014
MVFR and IFR, with some patchy VLIFR conditons are expected for
the next several hours before we see conditions slowly improve
from west to east later this morning. Satellite data and surface
obs indicate widespread IFR and MVFR cigs were across our area
with KBMI just recently reporting 1/4sm in fog. The backedge of
the clouds was located from just west of Galesburg to just east of
Winchester with boundary layer winds remaining out of the north,
taking the cloud shield from north to south this morning. So as
long as the winds just off the surface remain northerly, its going
to be tough to get the clouds to shift east and track out of our
area until later this morning. It appears as the surface ridge
axis shifts across the area later this morning, boundary layer
winds will start to become more southwesterly which will help push
the lower clouds east with the clearing taking place first at PIA
and SPI, and then by early afternoon we should see BMI and DEC go
at least broken on the MVFR cloud deck while CMI remains overcast
until 21z or later.
Surface winds will start out from the northwest this morning and
then back more into the west and southwest during the afternoon
over most of the area. Wind speeds will average around 10 kts
today. Southerly winds at 5 to 10 kts expected tonight ahead of a
cold front that is slated to move through the TAF sites Friday
morning. With most areas expected to see a mostly clear sky
tonight, we may see some patchy fog form late but winds may hold
up enough to prevent any widespread development. For now will not
include in this set of TAFs but may need to be addressed in later
forecasts.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Smith
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
942 AM EDT THU OCT 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER TODAY...THEN CROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
BASED ON LATEST RAP/HRRR MDLS AND RADAR TRENDS HAVE SLOWED THE
PROGRESSION OF THE STEADIER RAIN INTO THE FA UNTIL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. VISIBILITIES DOWNEAST ARE BEGINNING
TO IMPROVE SO WILL ONLY CARRY PATCHY FOG THE REST OF THIS MORNING.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE THE TIMING OF RAINFALL AND AMOUNTS.
06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTED A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE
CROWN OF MAINE FROM ABOUT CARIBOU BACK THROUGH ALLAGASH. NORTH OF
THIS BOUNDARY TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT,
TEMPERATURES WERE RUNNING IN THE 60S. LATEST RADAR SHOWED A BATCH
OF PRECIP(SHOWERS) MOVING ACROSS THE NWRN TIP OF MAINE W/SOME VERY
LIGHT RETURNS SHOWING UP FROM TO TIME SOUTH OF THIS AREA DOWN INTO
THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS. THE LATEST RAP AND NAM SOUNDINGS
CONFIRMED THIS TO BE DRIZZLE W/A DEEP LLVL MOISTURE PROFILE, LIGHT
ESE WINDS AND A DECENT DRY WEDGE NORTH OF THE MOIST LAYER. DECIDED
TO CARRY DRIZZLE AND FOG INTO THE MID MORNING. THERE WILL BE SOME
SHOWERS AROUND, BUT THEY WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED AND CONFINED TO
THE W AND SW AS FORCING IS WEAK AT BEST AND LIMITED TO THE LLVLS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN TODAY W/READINGS IN THE
60S.
ALL THIS IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
AS AN OCCLUDED FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO TAP INTO A TROPICAL CONNECTION ASSOCIATED W/HRCN
GONZALO. THIS CONNECTION CAN BE SEEN ON THE LATEST SATELLITE WV
IMAGERY AS A STRONG PLUME IS SHOWN PUSHING N ALONG THE ATLC
SEABOARD. HIGH PWATS OF 1.5+ INCHES, A LLVL JET OF 50 KTS AND
STRONG SSE INFLOW THROUGH 700MBS SUPPORTS POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY
RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MDL SOUNDINGS ALSO POINT TO SOME
ELEVATED CAPE ESPECIALLY FROM THE SW INTO EASTERN AREAS BY EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. LIGHTING STRIKES WERE SEEN ALONG THE VIRGINIA-NORTH
CAROLINA COAST AS OF 06Z. DECIDED TO KEEP THE MENTION OF HEAVY
RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST AND ADDED THE MENTION OF TSTMS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS INCLUDING PISCATAQUIS CO. AND
UPSLOPE FAVORED AREAS WILL SEE OVER 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL W/SOME
SPOTS HITTING 3 INCHES IN A 12 HR PERIOD. AFTER COORDINATION
W/GYX, DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH. SOME MINOR
FLOODING COULD OCCUR ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS, BUT RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL BE ABLE TO HANDLE THIS
RAINFALL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE OCCLUDED FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON. DEEP MOISTURE...WITH A TROPICAL
CONNECTION...WILL BE DRAWN NORTH ACROSS THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF
THE FRONT. AN AREA OF RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL CROSS THE
REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE OCCLUSION WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
ALSO POSSIBLE. PRECIPITATION WILL THEN TAPER TO SHOWERS IN THE
WAKE OF THE OCCLUSION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. COULD HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS FRIDAY EVENING.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
DOWNEAST. A LOW LEVEL JET WILL ALSO CROSS THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF
THE OCCLUSION. GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF THE
OCCLUSION...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST.
HOWEVER...FORECAST WINDS APPEAR SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN WITH PREVIOUS
MODEL RUNS. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATER
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS FRIDAY/SATURDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION SUNDAY...WHILE AN
UPPER TROF CROSSES THE REGION. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS SUNDAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS DOWNEAST. COULD HAVE A CHANCE
OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
UPPER TROF WILL MOVE NORTHEAST MONDAY. COULD HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF MORNING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS MONDAY.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES NORTH WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DOWNEAST MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. EXPECT
INCREASING CLOUDS TUESDAY...WITH RAIN CHANCES THEN INCREASING
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS SUNDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVEL
TEMPERATURES MONDAY/TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR RIGHT INTO TONIGHT. THERE COULD BE PERIODS OF MVFR
EARLY TODAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERMINALS.
SHORT TERM: IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN IMPROVING TO MVFR/VFR
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS AND LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
COULD BE A CONCERN FRIDAY MORNING WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
ALSO POSSIBLE. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. OCCASIONAL MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION LATER SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS. GENERALLY
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY...THOUGH OCCASIONAL
MVFR CONDITIONS COULD LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS EARLY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: DECIDED TO GO W/A SCA STARTING LATER TONIGHT AS WINDS
AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE OCCLUSION. THE NAM
AND GFS BOTH SUPPORT A LLVL JET OF 50 KTS MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS
LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. SOME THIS STRONG WIND COULD MIX
DOWN TO THE SURFACE. DECIDED TO GO W/GUSTS 25+ KTS AFTER MIDNIGHT
W/SEAS BUILDING TO 7 FT BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE
WATERS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED
IN RAIN AND FOG FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...DUDA/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...DUDA/HEWITT/NORCROSS
MARINE...DUDA/HEWITT/NORCROSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
622 AM EDT THU OCT 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER TODAY...THEN CROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
ADDED PATCHY FOG TO NORTHERN ZONES THIS MORNING. VISIBILITY AT KFVE
NOW AT 1/4SM AND KHUL 2SM. OTHER THAN POPULATING CURRENT HOURLY
TEMPERATURES AND EXTRAPOLATING TO FORECASTED HIGH TEMPS NO OTHER
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE THE TIMING OF RAINFALL AND AMOUNTS.
06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTED A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE
CROWN OF MAINE FROM ABOUT CARIBOU BACK THROUGH ALLAGASH. NORTH OF
THIS BOUNDARY TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT,
TEMPERATURES WERE RUNNING IN THE 60S. LATEST RADAR SHOWED A BATCH
OF PRECIP(SHOWERS) MOVING ACROSS THE NWRN TIP OF MAINE W/SOME VERY
LIGHT RETURNS SHOWING UP FROM TO TIME SOUTH OF THIS AREA DOWN INTO
THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS. THE LATEST RAP AND NAM SOUNDINGS
CONFIRMED THIS TO BE DRIZZLE W/A DEEP LLVL MOISTURE PROFILE, LIGHT
ESE WINDS AND A DECENT DRY WEDGE NORTH OF THE MOIST LAYER. DECIDED
TO CARRY DRIZZLE AND FOG INTO THE MID MORNING. THERE WILL BE SOME
SHOWERS AROUND, BUT THEY WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED AND CONFINED TO
THE W AND SW AS FORCING IS WEAK AT BEST AND LIMITED TO THE LLVLS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN TODAY W/READINGS IN THE
60S.
ALL THIS IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
AS AN OCCLUDED FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO TAP INTO A TROPICAL CONNECTION ASSOCIATED W/HRCN
GONZALO. THIS CONNECTION CAN BE SEEN ON THE LATEST SATELLITE WV
IMAGERY AS A STRONG PLUME IS SHOWN PUSHING N ALONG THE ATLC
SEABOARD. HIGH PWATS OF 1.5+ INCHES, A LLVL JET OF 50 KTS AND
STRONG SSE INFLOW THROUGH 700MBS SUPPORTS POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY
RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MDL SOUNDINGS ALSO POINT TO SOME
ELEVATED CAPE ESPECIALLY FROM THE SW INTO EASTERN AREAS BY EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. LIGHTING STRIKES WERE SEEN ALONG THE VIRGINIA-NORTH
CAROLINA COAST AS OF 06Z. DECIDED TO KEEP THE MENTION OF HEAVY
RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST AND ADDED THE MENTION OF TSTMS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS INCLUDING PISCATAQUIS CO. AND
UPSLOPE FAVORED AREAS WILL SEE OVER 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL W/SOME
SPOTS HITTING 3 INCHES IN A 12 HR PERIOD. AFTER COORDINATION
W/GYX, DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH. SOME MINOR
FLOODING COULD OCCUR ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS, BUT RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL BE ABLE TO HANDLE THIS
RAINFALL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE OCCLUDED FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON. DEEP MOISTURE...WITH A TROPICAL
CONNECTION...WILL BE DRAWN NORTH ACROSS THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF
THE FRONT. AN AREA OF RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL CROSS THE
REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE OCCLUSION WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
ALSO POSSIBLE. PRECIPITATION WILL THEN TAPER TO SHOWERS IN THE
WAKE OF THE OCCLUSION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. COULD HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS FRIDAY EVENING.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
DOWNEAST. A LOW LEVEL JET WILL ALSO CROSS THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF
THE OCCLUSION. GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF THE
OCCLUSION...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST.
HOWEVER...FORECAST WINDS APPEAR SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN WITH PREVIOUS
MODEL RUNS. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATER
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS FRIDAY/SATURDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION SUNDAY...WHILE AN
UPPER TROF CROSSES THE REGION. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS SUNDAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS DOWNEAST. COULD HAVE A CHANCE
OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
UPPER TROF WILL MOVE NORTHEAST MONDAY. COULD HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF MORNING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS MONDAY.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES NORTH WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DOWNEAST MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. EXPECT
INCREASING CLOUDS TUESDAY...WITH RAIN CHANCES THEN INCREASING
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS SUNDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVEL
TEMPERATURES MONDAY/TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR RIGHT INTO TONIGHT. THERE COULD BE PERIODS OF MVFR
EARLY TODAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERMINALS.
SHORT TERM: IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN IMPROVING TO MVFR/VFR
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS AND LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
COULD BE A CONCERN FRIDAY MORNING WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
ALSO POSSIBLE. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. OCCASIONAL MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION LATER SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS. GENERALLY
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY...THOUGH OCCASIONAL
MVFR CONDITIONS COULD LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS EARLY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: DECIDED TO GO W/A SCA STARTING LATER TONIGHT AS WINDS
AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE OCCLUSION. THE NAM
AND GFS BOTH SUPPORT A LLVL JET OF 50 KTS MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS
LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. SOME THIS STRONG WIND COULD MIX
DOWN TO THE SURFACE. DECIDED TO GO W/GUSTS 25+ KTS AFTER MIDNIGHT
W/SEAS BUILDING TO 7 FT BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE
WATERS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED
IN RAIN AND FOG FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...DUDA/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...DUDA/HEWITT/NORCROSS
MARINE...DUDA/HEWITT/NORCROSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1006 AM EDT THU OCT 16 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1003 AM EDT THU OCT 16 2014
...CLOUDS STICKING AROUND BUT DRIZZLE AND FOG SHOULD END THIS
AFTERNOON...
TWEAKED GOING FORECAST MAINLY FOR THE DENSE FOG ALONG SHORELINE OF
WESTERN CWA. LIMITED ADVECTION AS WINDS ARE LIGHT MAY MAKE IT HARD
TO GET RID OF THIS FOG. FOR MOST PART...THICKEST FOG IS OVER THE
LAKE BUT WEB CAMS FROM ASHLAND WI...PORCUPINE MTS...ONTONAGON...AND
EAGLE HARBOR SHOW IT PUSHING JUST INLAND AS WELL. ELSEWHERE...JUST
SEEING SOME LINGERING DRIZZLE OVER PARTS OF CNTRL CWA AND 1-3SM TYPE
FOG. PROBABLY WILL SEE THE DRIZZLE AND FOG DISIPPATE BY EARLY AFTN
BUT THE CLOUDS LIKELY WILL STAY DUE TO THE LACK OF DRY AIR
ADVECTION BENEATH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AROUND H85-H8 PER FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND 12Z RAOBS FM KINL AND KGRB. IMPACT TO TEMPS NOT TOO
LARGE AS HIGHEST READINGS IN THE 50S STILL EXPECTED OVER FAR WEST
CWA WHERE SKIES ARE ALREADY PARTLY CLOUDY ATTM.
NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OF NOTE IS PUSHING ACROSS EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WITH SHARP WIND SHIFT NOTED OVER WESTERN DAKOTAS. SHOULD SEE
SIMILAR WEATHER OVER UPR MICHIGAN ON FRIDAY WITH INCREASING NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS AND MORE RAIN AS THAT DAKOTAS SYSTEM MERGES WITH THE
SYSTEM THAT MOVED ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION EARLIER THIS WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 459 AM EDT THU OCT 16 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTERED OVER IN/OH. MUCH OF THE FCST AREA REMAINS UNDER
CONSIDERABLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE NW SIDE OF THIS FEATURE...AND
KMQT RADAR HAS SHOWN SPOTTY -SHRA/SPRINKLES AT TIMES OVER THE ERN
FCST AREA OVERNIGHT. MUCH OF FAR WRN UPPER MI ENJOYED SUNNY SKIES
YESTERDAY. DURING THE NIGHT...SOME FOG HAS FORMED IN THAT AREA AS
WELL AS SOME LOW CLOUDS FROM PORTIONS OF THE KEWEENAW DOWN ALONG THE
VCNTY OF THE SHORELINE INTO NW WI. UPSTREAM...A RATHER POTENT
LOOKING SHORTWAVE IS MOVING E ACROSS MT WITH ASSOCIATED SFC LOW IN
THE ND/SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA BORDER AREA.
FOR TODAY...SOME -SHRA/SPRINKLES MAY CONTINUE TO APPEAR AT TIMES
THRU THE MID MORNING OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE FCST AREA UNDER
LINGERING WEAK DEEP LAYER FORCING PER QVECTORS. DEEP LAYER QVECTOR
DIVERGENCE THEN TAKES OVER...SO IT APPEARS DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE THE
RULE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTN. BIGGEST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE
CLOUD TRENDS. WITH A LIGHT/VRBL WIND REGIME ACROSS THE AREA TODAY
BTWN SFC LOW IN SRN ONTARIO AND APPROACHING LOW MOVING ALONG
U.S./CANADA BORDER...THERE WILL BE LITTLE ADVECTION OCCURRING.
THUS...A PESSIMISTIC CLOUD FCST APPEARS TO BE THE WAY TO GO. THE W
WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE THE BETTER OPPORTUNITY TO SEE SOME
SUNSHINE...AND THIS SHOULD HELP BOOST TEMPS TO AROUND 60F. WHERE
CLOUDS ARE MORE PERSISTENT...LWR 50S WILL BE MORE COMMON.
TONIGHT...THE POTENT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK INTO NRN MN AND
WILL HELP PICK UP THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY.
AS THIS OCCURS...PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE LATTER FEATURE WILL SWING
BACK TO THE NW WITH LEFT EXIT OF 100KT UPPER JET STREAK ON E SIDE OF
THE LOW ASSISTING PCPN PRODUCTION. MUCH OF THAT PCPN SHOULD PASS BY
TO THE E AND N OF UPPER MI...BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO MENTION SCHC POPS
OVER THE FAR E LATE. MEANWHILE...FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE WILL SPREAD INTO WRN UPPER MI. INITIALLY...DEEP MOISTURE
IN THE COLUMN IS LACKING...SO IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME BEFORE PCPN
DEVELOPS. BEST POTENTIAL FOR PCPN SHOULD COME WITH THE ADDITION OF
LOWER LEVEL FORCING FROM SFC-850MB TROF TRAILING WNW FROM SFC LOW
WHICH SHOULD BE IN THE VCNTY OF CNTRL UPPER MI AT 12Z MON. HAVE THUS
INTRODUCED CHC POPS OVER WRN UPPER LATE TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 AM EDT THU OCT 16 2014
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE MEDIUM/LONG TERM WL FOCUS ON POPS AND
WINDS ON FRI INTO SAT AS A STRONG DISTURBANCE SLIDES THRU THE UPR
LKS AND INTERACTS WITH SLOW MOVING CLOSED LO RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
RECENT INCLEMENT WX OVER THE E HALF OF UPR MI. AS THE DISTURBANCES
PHASE...A DEEP LO PRES WL DVLP OVER SE CANADA...BRINGING A STRONG
AND COLDER NW FLOW THAT WL RESULT IN SOME LK ENHANCED PCPN FOR A
TIME ON FRI NGT. RIGHT NOW...IT APPEARS MOST OF THE PCPN WL FALL AS
RA.
FRI/FRI NGT...STRONG SHRTWV CROSSING THE NRN ROCKIES EARLY THIS MRNG
IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE UPR LKS ON FRI AND MERGE WITH THE
SLUGGIST CLOSED LO NOW OVER THE OH RIVER VALLEY THAT WL BE MOVING
NEWD THRU SE ONTARIO AT THAT TIME. THE RESULT WL BE A DEEPENING SFC
LO PRES NEAR JAMES BAY AND STRENGTHENING NNW WINDS/CAD IN THE UPR
LKS ON FRI AFTN AND NGT. ALTHOUGH THERE WL BE LTL MSTR INFLOW IN
ADVANCE OF THE SHRTWV MOVING IN FM THE W ON FRI THAT WL LIMIT THE
INTENSITY OF THE ACCOMPANYING QVECTOR CNVGC...VIGOROUS NATURE OF
THIS SHRTWV/PVA ACCOMPANIED BY 12HR H5 HGT FALLS UP 100M WL SUPPORT
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NRN CWA ON THE CYC
SIDE OF SHRTWV TRACK AND WHERE MODELS SHOW MORE APPRECIABLE DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC/UPR DVGC. EXPECT THE LOWEST POPS OVER THE SCENTRAL
WITH DOWNSLOPE W VEERING NW LLVL WIND COMPONENT. AS NNW H925 WINDS
INCRSG UP TO 40-45 KTS LATE FRI/FRI NGT DRIVE H85 TEMPS DOWN TO -4
TO -6C ON FRI NGT IN THE PRESENCE OF SOME LINGERING DEEP MSTR ON THE
CYC SIDE OF A REINFORCING SHRTWV DIGGING SSEWD THRU MN...EXPECT A
PERIOD OF LK ENHANCED PCPN THAT MAY FEATURE SOME SN MIXING IN WITH
THE RA AT LEAST OVER THE HIER TERRAIN OF THE NW HALF. WINDS WL
LIKELY AT LEAST APRCH ADVY CRITERIA...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LK SUP
SHORE WITH THE INCRSG INSTABILITY. THE LK PCPN MAY BEGIN TO DIMINISH
TOWARD 12Z SAT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF HGT RISES/MID LVL DRYING/LOWERING
SUBSIDENCE INVRN UNDER THE DNVA IN THE WAKE OF THE UPR TROF SHIFTING
INTO THE ERN LKS. ONE OTHER CONCERN WL BE THE HI WAVES WHIPPED UP ON
LK SUP BY THE STRENGTHENING WINDS ON FRI NGT. SINCE THE LK SUP WATER
LVL HAS RISEN UP TO HALF A FOOT ABV NORMAL...THERE MAY BE SOME BEACH
FLOODING AT THE MORE EXPOSED LOCATIONS.
SAT...THE APRCH OF A SHRTWV RDG AND ACCOMPANYING SFC HI PRES WL
BRING DIMINISHING WINDS AND VIGOROUS MID LVL DRYING THAT WL CAUSE LK
EFFECT PCPN ON SAT MRNG TO END IN THE AFTN IN THE PRESENCE OF
DIURNAL HEATING EVEN IF A GOOD DEAL OF SC LINGERS WITHIN THE LLVL
THERMAL TROF THAT IS PROGGED TO HOLD IN PLACE UNDER SUBSIDENCE INVRN
NEAR H875 WITHIN THE NLY FLOW E OF THE APRCHG RDG AXIS. SOME CLRG IS
LIKELY TO ARRIVE OVER THE W BY LATE IN THE AFTN WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
THE SFC RDG AXIS.
SAT NGT...WITH RDG AXIS PASSING OVHD AND PWAT FCST AS LO AS 0.25
INCH SUPPORTING THE CLRG OF ANY LINGERING LO CLDS...EXPECT TEMPS TO
FALL WELL INTO THE 20S OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF EVEN IF SOME HI CLDS
ARRIVE LATE IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SHRTWV DIGGING SEWD THRU SCENTRAL
CANADA. SINCE LO CLDS WL LINGER LONGER OVER THE E...TEMPS THERE WL
NOT FALL AS FAR.
SUN INTO MON...NEXT SHRTWV DROPPING SEWD AND INTO THE UPR LKS/UPR
MIDWEST BY 12Z MON WL BRING INCRSG CLDS ON SUN AND THE NEXT CHC OF
SHOWERS SUN AFTN INTO MON MRNG. ONCE AGAIN...MSTR INFLOW INTO THIS
DISTURBANCE WL BE LIMITED...BUT FAIRLY VIGOROUS DPVA/QVECTOR CNVGC
WILL BRING AT LEAST SCT SHOWERS BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF HGT RISES/DNVA
IN THE WAKE OF THE SHRTWV SLIPPING TO THE SE DIMINISH THE PCPN
THREAT LATER ON MON. ALL THE PCPN ACCOMPANYING THIS DISTURBANCE WL
BE IN THE FORM OF RA
EXTENDED...ALTHOUGH SOME CLDS AND EVEN A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER ON
MON NGT UNDER LLVL CYC FLOW/LLVL THERMAL TROF LEFT IN THE WAKE OF
THE DEPARTING SHRTWV/SFC LO...BLDG UPR RDG OVER CENTRAL NAMERICA AND
SFC HI PRES IN THE GREAT LKS WL BRING DRY WX TO UPR MI.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 744 AM EDT THU OCT 16 2014
ON THE NW EDGE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY...
CONSIDERABLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO RESULT IN LIFR
CONDITIONS AT KSAW. WITH WEAK WIND FIELDS TODAY AND THUS LITTLE
ADVECTION OCCURRING...LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE KSAW.
DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD HELP RAISE CIGS A LITTLE...TO IFR LATE
MORNING AND THEN TO MVFR THIS AFTN. MAY SEE LIFR CONDITIONS REDEVELOP
LATE TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...AT KIWD AND KCMX...THE MAIN ISSUE HAS BEEN
GROUND FOG TRENDS EARLY THIS MORNING. SURPRISED BOTH TERMINALS HAVE
RECENTLY BECOME VFR AFTER DEALING WITH FOG...BUT BELIEVE THERE STILL
COULD BE SOME FOG OR STRATUS YET EARLY THIS MORNING. THERE IS A MASS
OF LOW CLOUDS JUST E OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...AND AS WINDS BECOME
LIGHT EASTERLY...THESE CLOUDS MAY IMPACT KCMX WITH MVFR AND
POTENTIALLY IFR CIGS LATER THIS MORNING. LOW PRES MOVING INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL LIKELY BRING IFR CONDITIONS TO KIWD/KCMX LATE
TONIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 434 AM EDT THU OCT 16 2014
EXPECT LIGHT WINDS INTO EARLY FRI UNDER A RELATIVELY WEAK PRES
GRADIENT. BUT THEN AS A PAIR OF UPPER DISTURBANCES COMBINE ON FRI...
A DEEP LO PRES WILL DEVELOP IN SE CANADA AND BRING INCREASING NNW
WINDS THAT INCREASE TO GALE FORCE/UP TO 40 KTS ON FRI AFTERNOON AND
FRI NIGHT THAT IMPACT ALMOST ALL OF LAKE SUPERIOR INTO NORTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN. ISSUED GALE WATCHES FOR ALL BUT FAR WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR...WHERE THE WINDS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG. AS A HI PRES
RIDGE APPROACHES FROM THE W ON SAT...THE STRONG WINDS WILL DIMINISH
W-E. ALTHOUGH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE/SURFACE LO PRES WILL TRACK ACROSS
THE UPPER LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK...NO STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
LSZ248>251-267.
GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
LSZ266.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT /11 AM CDT/ TODAY FOR LSZ162-
240>244-263-264.
GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
LSZ263>265.
GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
LSZ244-245.
GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
LSZ242-243.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
LMZ248-250.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JLA
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
745 AM EDT THU OCT 16 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 459 AM EDT THU OCT 16 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTERED OVER IN/OH. MUCH OF THE FCST AREA REMAINS UNDER
CONSIDERABLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE NW SIDE OF THIS FEATURE...AND
KMQT RADAR HAS SHOWN SPOTTY -SHRA/SPRINKLES AT TIMES OVER THE ERN
FCST AREA OVERNIGHT. MUCH OF FAR WRN UPPER MI ENJOYED SUNNY SKIES
YESTERDAY. DURING THE NIGHT...SOME FOG HAS FORMED IN THAT AREA AS
WELL AS SOME LOW CLOUDS FROM PORTIONS OF THE KEWEENAW DOWN ALONG THE
VCNTY OF THE SHORELINE INTO NW WI. UPSTREAM...A RATHER POTENT
LOOKING SHORTWAVE IS MOVING E ACROSS MT WITH ASSOCIATED SFC LOW IN
THE ND/SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA BORDER AREA.
FOR TODAY...SOME -SHRA/SPRINKLES MAY CONTINUE TO APPEAR AT TIMES
THRU THE MID MORNING OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE FCST AREA UNDER
LINGERING WEAK DEEP LAYER FORCING PER QVECTORS. DEEP LAYER QVECTOR
DIVERGENCE THEN TAKES OVER...SO IT APPEARS DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE THE
RULE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTN. BIGGEST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE
CLOUD TRENDS. WITH A LIGHT/VRBL WIND REGIME ACROSS THE AREA TODAY
BTWN SFC LOW IN SRN ONTARIO AND APPROACHING LOW MOVING ALONG
U.S./CANADA BORDER...THERE WILL BE LITTLE ADVECTION OCCURRING.
THUS...A PESSIMISTIC CLOUD FCST APPEARS TO BE THE WAY TO GO. THE W
WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE THE BETTER OPPORTUNITY TO SEE SOME
SUNSHINE...AND THIS SHOULD HELP BOOST TEMPS TO AROUND 60F. WHERE
CLOUDS ARE MORE PERSISTENT...LWR 50S WILL BE MORE COMMON.
TONIGHT...THE POTENT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK INTO NRN MN AND
WILL HELP PICK UP THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY.
AS THIS OCCURS...PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE LATTER FEATURE WILL SWING
BACK TO THE NW WITH LEFT EXIT OF 100KT UPPER JET STREAK ON E SIDE OF
THE LOW ASSISTING PCPN PRODUCTION. MUCH OF THAT PCPN SHOULD PASS BY
TO THE E AND N OF UPPER MI...BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO MENTION SCHC POPS
OVER THE FAR E LATE. MEANWHILE...FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE WILL SPREAD INTO WRN UPPER MI. INITIALLY...DEEP MOISTURE
IN THE COLUMN IS LACKING...SO IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME BEFORE PCPN
DEVELOPS. BEST POTENTIAL FOR PCPN SHOULD COME WITH THE ADDITION OF
LOWER LEVEL FORCING FROM SFC-850MB TROF TRAILING WNW FROM SFC LOW
WHICH SHOULD BE IN THE VCNTY OF CNTRL UPPER MI AT 12Z MON. HAVE THUS
INTRODUCED CHC POPS OVER WRN UPPER LATE TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 AM EDT THU OCT 16 2014
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE MEDIUM/LONG TERM WL FOCUS ON POPS AND
WINDS ON FRI INTO SAT AS A STRONG DISTURBANCE SLIDES THRU THE UPR
LKS AND INTERACTS WITH SLOW MOVING CLOSED LO RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
RECENT INCLEMENT WX OVER THE E HALF OF UPR MI. AS THE DISTURBANCES
PHASE...A DEEP LO PRES WL DVLP OVER SE CANADA...BRINGING A STRONG
AND COLDER NW FLOW THAT WL RESULT IN SOME LK ENHANCED PCPN FOR A
TIME ON FRI NGT. RIGHT NOW...IT APPEARS MOST OF THE PCPN WL FALL AS
RA.
FRI/FRI NGT...STRONG SHRTWV CROSSING THE NRN ROCKIES EARLY THIS MRNG
IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE UPR LKS ON FRI AND MERGE WITH THE
SLUGGIST CLOSED LO NOW OVER THE OH RIVER VALLEY THAT WL BE MOVING
NEWD THRU SE ONTARIO AT THAT TIME. THE RESULT WL BE A DEEPENING SFC
LO PRES NEAR JAMES BAY AND STRENGTHENING NNW WINDS/CAD IN THE UPR
LKS ON FRI AFTN AND NGT. ALTHOUGH THERE WL BE LTL MSTR INFLOW IN
ADVANCE OF THE SHRTWV MOVING IN FM THE W ON FRI THAT WL LIMIT THE
INTENSITY OF THE ACCOMPANYING QVECTOR CNVGC...VIGOROUS NATURE OF
THIS SHRTWV/PVA ACCOMPANIED BY 12HR H5 HGT FALLS UP 100M WL SUPPORT
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NRN CWA ON THE CYC
SIDE OF SHRTWV TRACK AND WHERE MODELS SHOW MORE APPRECIABLE DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC/UPR DVGC. EXPECT THE LOWEST POPS OVER THE SCENTRAL
WITH DOWNSLOPE W VEERING NW LLVL WIND COMPONENT. AS NNW H925 WINDS
INCRSG UP TO 40-45 KTS LATE FRI/FRI NGT DRIVE H85 TEMPS DOWN TO -4
TO -6C ON FRI NGT IN THE PRESENCE OF SOME LINGERING DEEP MSTR ON THE
CYC SIDE OF A REINFORCING SHRTWV DIGGING SSEWD THRU MN...EXPECT A
PERIOD OF LK ENHANCED PCPN THAT MAY FEATURE SOME SN MIXING IN WITH
THE RA AT LEAST OVER THE HIER TERRAIN OF THE NW HALF. WINDS WL
LIKELY AT LEAST APRCH ADVY CRITERIA...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LK SUP
SHORE WITH THE INCRSG INSTABILITY. THE LK PCPN MAY BEGIN TO DIMINISH
TOWARD 12Z SAT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF HGT RISES/MID LVL DRYING/LOWERING
SUBSIDENCE INVRN UNDER THE DNVA IN THE WAKE OF THE UPR TROF SHIFTING
INTO THE ERN LKS. ONE OTHER CONCERN WL BE THE HI WAVES WHIPPED UP ON
LK SUP BY THE STRENGTHENING WINDS ON FRI NGT. SINCE THE LK SUP WATER
LVL HAS RISEN UP TO HALF A FOOT ABV NORMAL...THERE MAY BE SOME BEACH
FLOODING AT THE MORE EXPOSED LOCATIONS.
SAT...THE APRCH OF A SHRTWV RDG AND ACCOMPANYING SFC HI PRES WL
BRING DIMINISHING WINDS AND VIGOROUS MID LVL DRYING THAT WL CAUSE LK
EFFECT PCPN ON SAT MRNG TO END IN THE AFTN IN THE PRESENCE OF
DIURNAL HEATING EVEN IF A GOOD DEAL OF SC LINGERS WITHIN THE LLVL
THERMAL TROF THAT IS PROGGED TO HOLD IN PLACE UNDER SUBSIDENCE INVRN
NEAR H875 WITHIN THE NLY FLOW E OF THE APRCHG RDG AXIS. SOME CLRG IS
LIKELY TO ARRIVE OVER THE W BY LATE IN THE AFTN WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
THE SFC RDG AXIS.
SAT NGT...WITH RDG AXIS PASSING OVHD AND PWAT FCST AS LO AS 0.25
INCH SUPPORTING THE CLRG OF ANY LINGERING LO CLDS...EXPECT TEMPS TO
FALL WELL INTO THE 20S OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF EVEN IF SOME HI CLDS
ARRIVE LATE IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SHRTWV DIGGING SEWD THRU SCENTRAL
CANADA. SINCE LO CLDS WL LINGER LONGER OVER THE E...TEMPS THERE WL
NOT FALL AS FAR.
SUN INTO MON...NEXT SHRTWV DROPPING SEWD AND INTO THE UPR LKS/UPR
MIDWEST BY 12Z MON WL BRING INCRSG CLDS ON SUN AND THE NEXT CHC OF
SHOWERS SUN AFTN INTO MON MRNG. ONCE AGAIN...MSTR INFLOW INTO THIS
DISTURBANCE WL BE LIMITED...BUT FAIRLY VIGOROUS DPVA/QVECTOR CNVGC
WILL BRING AT LEAST SCT SHOWERS BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF HGT RISES/DNVA
IN THE WAKE OF THE SHRTWV SLIPPING TO THE SE DIMINISH THE PCPN
THREAT LATER ON MON. ALL THE PCPN ACCOMPANYING THIS DISTURBANCE WL
BE IN THE FORM OF RA
EXTENDED...ALTHOUGH SOME CLDS AND EVEN A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER ON
MON NGT UNDER LLVL CYC FLOW/LLVL THERMAL TROF LEFT IN THE WAKE OF
THE DEPARTING SHRTWV/SFC LO...BLDG UPR RDG OVER CENTRAL NAMERICA AND
SFC HI PRES IN THE GREAT LKS WL BRING DRY WX TO UPR MI.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 744 AM EDT THU OCT 16 2014
ON THE NW EDGE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY...
CONSIDERABLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO RESULT IN LIFR
CONDITIONS AT KSAW. WITH WEAK WIND FIELDS TODAY AND THUS LITTLE
ADVECTION OCCURRING...LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE KSAW.
DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD HELP RAISE CIGS A LITTLE...TO IFR LATE
MORNING AND THEN TO MVFR THIS AFTN. MAY SEE LIFR CONDITIONS REDEVELOP
LATE TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...AT KIWD AND KCMX...THE MAIN ISSUE HAS BEEN
GROUND FOG TRENDS EARLY THIS MORNING. SURPRISED BOTH TERMINALS HAVE
RECENTLY BECOME VFR AFTER DEALING WITH FOG...BUT BELIEVE THERE STILL
COULD BE SOME FOG OR STRATUS YET EARLY THIS MORNING. THERE IS A MASS
OF LOW CLOUDS JUST E OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...AND AS WINDS BECOME
LIGHT EASTERLY...THESE CLOUDS MAY IMPACT KCMX WITH MVFR AND
POTENTIALLY IFR CIGS LATER THIS MORNING. LOW PRES MOVING INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL LIKELY BRING IFR CONDITIONS TO KIWD/KCMX LATE
TONIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 434 AM EDT THU OCT 16 2014
EXPECT LIGHT WINDS INTO EARLY FRI UNDER A RELATIVELY WEAK PRES
GRADIENT. BUT THEN AS A PAIR OF UPPER DISTURBANCES COMBINE ON FRI...
A DEEP LO PRES WILL DEVELOP IN SE CANADA AND BRING INCREASING NNW
WINDS THAT INCREASE TO GALE FORCE/UP TO 40 KTS ON FRI AFTERNOON AND
FRI NIGHT THAT IMPACT ALMOST ALL OF LAKE SUPERIOR INTO NORTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN. ISSUED GALE WATCHES FOR ALL BUT FAR WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR...WHERE THE WINDS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG. AS A HI PRES
RIDGE APPROACHES FROM THE W ON SAT...THE STRONG WINDS WILL DIMINISH
W-E. ALTHOUGH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE/SURFACE LO PRES WILL TRACK ACROSS
THE UPPER LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK...NO STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
LSZ248>251-267.
GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
LSZ266.
GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
LSZ263>265.
GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
LSZ244-245.
GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
LSZ242-243.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
LMZ248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
1035 AM EDT THU OCT 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A MOISTURE LADEN OCCLUDED FRONT AND ASSOCIATED RAINBAND WILL SHIFT
SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD FROM NEW YORK ACROSS VERMONT TODAY. PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL AMOUNT TO 1 TO 2 INCHES OF TOTAL
RAINFALL BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED
OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH BRINGS A RETURN TO
COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL COOL SUFFICIENTLY FOR HIGHER SUMMIT SNOW
SHOWERS BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH A LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER PEAKS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1018 AM EDT THURSDAY...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE TO CRNT FCST
WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES IMPACTING MUCH OF OUR CWA.
WATER VAPOR SHOWS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE FEED ACRS OUR THE NE
CONUS...WITH WELL DEFINED DRY SLOT NOW PUSHING INTO CENTRAL NY.
THIS WL TAKE ALL DAY AND MOST OF TONIGHT TO MOVE EAST OUR CWA...SO
EXPECT OCCASIONAL RAIN HEAVY AT TIMES TO CONTINUE...WITH A SLOW
WEST TO EAST DRYING TREND BY LATE THIS AFTN/EVENING. TOTAL QPF
AMOUNTS WL BE HIGHLY TRRN DEPEND WITH OVER 2.0 LIKELY ACRS THE SE
UPSLOPE SECTIONS OF THE GREEN MTNS FROM LUDLOW TO NORTHFIELD AND
BTWN 0.75 AND 1.50 INCHES OVER THE EASTERN DACKS AND PARTS OF THE
CPV...AND NEAR 1.0 FOR THE SLV/WESTERN DACKS. INITIALLY SOME
SHADOWING WL OCCUR ACRS THE NEK ASSOCIATED WITH SE FLW...BUT GIVEN
DEPTH OF MOISTURE AND AVAILABLE DYNAMICS WITH CLOSED SYSTEM...MANY
LOCATIONS WL GET BTWN 0.75 AND 1.50" BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
RADAR/OBS SHOW INITIAL BAND OF RAIN ACRS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
CPV...HAS PRODUCED HRLY RAINFALL RATES OF UP TO 1.0 PER
HOUR...WITH PAWLET VT GETTING 0.92 INCHES BTWN 8 AND 9 AM THIS
MORNING. THESE RATES MAY CAUSE MINOR LOW LYING AND POOR URBAN
DRAINAGE FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IF FALLEN LEAVES CLOG THE STORM
DRAINGES. OTHERWISE...GIVEN RECENT DRY SPELL WITH MANY LOCATIONS
BTWN 2 AND 4 INCHES BELOW NORMAL...THIS IS A WELCOME RAINFALL.
LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH THE
CLOUDS/PRECIP...MAINLY 60S TO L70S.
ITS BEEN NOTED THE 12Z RAOB SOUNDING FROM ALBANY THE PW VALUES WAS
1.80...WHICH IS 239% OF NORMAL AND 3 STD ABOVE NORMAL...PLENTY OF
MOISTURE AVAILABLE.
SPC MESOANALYSIS BASED ON RAP MODEL SHOWS PW PLUME OF 1.6-1.8"
FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EXTENDING NNWWD ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND
ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND NEW YORK. THE FRONTAL RAINBAND WILL
PRODUCE PERIODS OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN...WHILE
GRADUALLY SHIFTING FROM NY/CHAMPLAIN VALLEY THIS MORNING INTO
CENTRAL/ERN VERMONT LATER IN THE DAY. POPS NEAR 100 PERCENT. WILL
SEE AREAS OF 1-1.5" RAINFALL BY EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH HIGHEST
TOTALS ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS WITH SFC-900MB SELY
UPSLOPE ENHANCING RAINFALL AMOUNTS A BIT. AT THE SAME TIME...THERE
WILL BE SOME DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND ALONG
THE NRN SLOPES OF THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE SOME LULLS IN THE
PRECIPITATION CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS BREEZY AS RECENT DAYS...GENERALLY
SELY AROUND 10 MPH. SOME LOCALIZED DOWNSLOPE FLOW IS POSSIBLE
ALONG THE WRN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE WESTERN SLOPES. RELATIVELY STABLE BOUNDARY
LAYER OWING TO RAINFALL WILL GENERALLY PRECLUDE ANY HIGHER WIND
GUST POTENTIAL AND KEEP THE FOOTPRINT OF ANY STRONGER GUSTS
RELATIVELY SMALL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 318 AM EDT THURSDAY...
TONIGHT...SURFACE OCCLUDED FRONT SHIFTS SLOWLY NEWD ACROSS
CENTRAL/NERN VT TONIGHT. WILL SEE STEADY RAINFALL GRADUALLY WORK ITS
WAY OUT OF CENTRAL/ERN VT BY MIDNIGHT OR SO...WITH JUST SOME
SPRINKLES/ISOLD SHOWERS IN THE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS NRN NY
AND WRN VT. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-2" STILL LOOK ON
TRACK. WITH DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS AND RIVERS RUNNING NEAR BASE
LEVELS...ONLY LOOKING FOR MINOR FIELD AND STREET FLOODING IN
FOCUSED AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN. LEAVES CAN SOMETIMES CLOG STORM DRAINS
ADDING TO A BIT OF STREET FLOODING...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC
IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
REMAIN SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE MID-OCTOBER AVERAGES WITH READINGS MOSTLY
IN THE MID-UPR 50S (15-20 DEG ABOVE NORMAL).
FRIDAY...OCCLUSION SHIFTS INTO MAINE WITH MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT AND
BROAD SWLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
MAY SEE A FEW ISOLD RAIN SHOWERS REACHING NRN NY FROM LAKE
ONTARIO...BUT OTHERWISE LOOKING INTERVALS OF CLOUDS/SUN. STILL +7 TO
+8C AT 850MB IN SW FLOW REGIME AND TEMPERATURES - WHILE NOT AS WARM
AS RECENT DAYS - WILL STILL REACH THE MID-UPR 60S FOR MOST VALLEY
SECTIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE A BIT GUSTY AT TIMES WITH
SW GRADIENT FLOW...GENERALLY 10-15 MPH WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS OF 20-30
MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT...DEEP-LAYER SWLY FLOW REMAINS AND STRENGTHENS
IN ADVANCE OF A DIGGING TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/SERN ONTARIO.
PROBABLY LOOKING AT A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR LAKE CHAMPLAIN AS
P-GRADIENT INCREASES. WELL-MIXED PBL SHOULD KEEP THINGS FAIRLY MILD
WITH LOWS IN THE UPR 40S TO MID 50S (WARMEST IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY). SHOULD SEE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS VERMONT...BUT AN
INCREASE TO MOSTLY CLOUDY/CLOUDY CONDITIONS IN ADVANCE OF
APPROACHING MID-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS NRN NY. MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS
DEVELOP DURING THE PRE-DAWN HRS ACROSS OUR NY COUNTIES AS WELL...AND
WILL INDICATE 20-40 POPS FOR WESTERN ZONES.
FOR SATURDAY...IT APPEARS THAT A RATHER VIGOROUS REINFORCING
MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT EWD INTO THE
NORTH COUNTRY. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS ACROSS
THE VALLEYS OF S-CENTRAL VERMONT...UP TO 0.25" ACROSS THE NRN
MOUNTAINS. GIVEN CONSISTENCY IN NWP GUIDANCE SUITE, WILL CARRY 70-80
POPS ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE VALLEYS OF CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
EARLY AFTERNOON MAXES OF LOW-MID 60S ACROSS VERMONT...BUT LIKELY
REMAINING IN THE MID-UPR 50S WITH EARLIER FRONTAL WIND SHIFT AND
LOW-LEVEL CAA OFFSETTING DIURNAL TRENDS DURING THE DAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 318 AM EDT THURSDAY...A BRUTAL CHANGE WITH TEMPERATURES SOME
20-25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THIS PAST TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TO PERHAPS
5+ DEGS BLO NORMAL BY SUNDAY WITH BLUSTERY COLD RAIN SHOWERS IN
VLYS BUT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS PSBL.
CORE OF THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NORTHEAST WITH A STRONG COLD
FRONT TRACKING THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY SATURDAY AFTN-SATURDAY
NIGHT AND THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINING ACRS FA THRU SUNDAY. THIS WILL
SUPPORT ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS WITH P-TYPE
LIKELY CHANGING TO SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AS 925-850MB
TEMPS CRASH BELOW 0C FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
MONDAY...BROAD NW CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES WITH SOME WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING FOR MONDAY...THUS RELATIVELY DRY BUT AOB
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
TUESDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND SFC WAVE EVENTUALLY RESULTING INTO
ANOTHER CLOSED UPPER LOW WITH SOME COASTAL DEVELOPMENT. ATTM...MAIN
SHIELD OF PCPN SHOULD REMAIN ESE OF FA BUT TROF AXIS ACROSS CWA THUS
CANT RULE OUT SOME INSTABILTY VLY SHRA AND PERHAPS MTN SHSN.
THEREAFTER...HIGH PRESSURE FROM QUEBEC DOWN THROUGH GREAT LAKES
BUILD INTO FA BUT REMAINING ON THE SEASONABLY COOL SIDE FOR WED.
IN REGARDS TO TEMPS...MORE FALL-LIKE TEMPS RETURN WITH HIGHS
SUN/MON/TUE ONLY IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S AND LOWS IN THE 20S AND
30S.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/RAIN HAS MOVED INTO
FA AS ADVERTISED WITH CONTINUED PLUME OF SHOWERS OFFSHORE OF NC
COAST HEADED TOWARD ERN VT/NEW ENGLAND. GRADUAL WEST TO EAST
MOVEMENT WITH SHRA ENDING IN NY BY ERLY-MID AFTN...CHMPL VLY MID-
LATE AFTN AND CT RVR VLY POSSIBLY AS LATE AS 06Z FRI.
MDL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN WAY TOO PESSIMISTIC WITH IFR CIGS THE LAST
FEW DAYS AND BASED ON CURRENT AND UPSTREAM OBS HAVE BROUGHT VFR
LOWERING TO MVFR WITH SCT IFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER SHRA ACTIVITY
AND THEN PERHAPS SCT IFR OVERNIGHT AT KMPV.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THRU THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... DRYING ON FRIDAY WITH MAINLY
VFR CONDS. ANOTHER FRNT WL PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
SATURDAY...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY SAT AFTN/EVENING. A WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST WL OCCUR SAT NIGHT BEHIND THIS FRNT WITH A FEW MTN SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT SLK.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/TABER
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SLW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
727 AM EDT THU OCT 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A MOISTURE LADEN OCCLUDED FRONT AND ASSOCIATED RAINBAND WILL SHIFT
SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD FROM NEW YORK ACROSS VERMONT TODAY. PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL AMOUNT TO 1 TO 2 INCHES OF TOTAL
RAINFALL BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED
OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH BRINGS A RETURN TO
COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL COOL SUFFICIENTLY FOR HIGHER SUMMIT SNOW
SHOWERS BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH A LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER PEAKS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 318 AM EDT THURSDAY...SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOW AND LEADING
OCCLUDED FRONTAL BOUNDARY FINALLY MAKING THEIR WAY NEWD INTO THE
NORTH COUNTRY THIS MORNING. LOOKING AT OVERCAST CONDITIONS AND
VERY MILD/MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE GIVEN THE PROLONGED FETCH OF
SOUTHERLY FLOW DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS (INCLUDING RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES OF 79F AND 80F ON 10/14 AND 10/15, RESPECTIVELY).
DAYTIME TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 70S TODAY AREAWIDE.
SPC MESOANALYSIS BASED ON RAP MODEL SHOWS PW PLUME OF 1.6-1.8"
FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EXTENDING NNWWD ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND
ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND NEW YORK. THE FRONTAL RAINBAND WILL
PRODUCE PERIODS OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN...WHILE
GRADUALLY SHIFTING FROM NY/CHAMPLAIN VALLEY THIS MORNING INTO
CENTRAL/ERN VERMONT LATER IN THE DAY. POPS NEAR 100 PERCENT. WILL
SEE AREAS OF 1-1.5" RAINFALL BY EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH HIGHEST
TOTALS ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS WITH SFC-900MB SELY
UPSLOPE ENHANCING RAINFALL AMOUNTS A BIT. AT THE SAME TIME...THERE
WILL BE SOME DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND ALONG
THE NRN SLOPES OF THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE SOME LULLS IN THE
PRECIPITATION CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS BREEZY AS RECENT DAYS...GENERALLY
SELY AROUND 10 MPH. SOME LOCALIZED DOWNSLOPE FLOW IS POSSIBLE
ALONG THE WRN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE WESTERN SLOPES. RELATIVELY STABLE BOUNDARY
LAYER OWING TO RAINFALL WILL GENERALLY PRECLUDE ANY HIGHER WIND
GUST POTENTIAL AND KEEP THE FOOTPRINT OF ANY STRONGER GUSTS
RELATIVELY SMALL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 318 AM EDT THURSDAY...
TONIGHT...SURFACE OCCLUDED FRONT SHIFTS SLOWLY NEWD ACROSS
CENTRAL/NERN VT TONIGHT. WILL SEE STEADY RAINFALL GRADUALLY WORK ITS
WAY OUT OF CENTRAL/ERN VT BY MIDNIGHT OR SO...WITH JUST SOME
SPRINKLES/ISOLD SHOWERS IN THE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS NRN NY
AND WRN VT. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-2" STILL LOOK ON
TRACK. WITH DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS AND RIVERS RUNNING NEAR BASE
LEVELS...ONLY LOOKING FOR MINOR FIELD AND STREET FLOODING IN
FOCUSED AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN. LEAVES CAN SOMETIMES CLOG STORM DRAINS
ADDING TO A BIT OF STREET FLOODING...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC
IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
REMAIN SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE MID-OCTOBER AVERAGES WITH READINGS MOSTLY
IN THE MID-UPR 50S (15-20 DEG ABOVE NORMAL).
FRIDAY...OCCLUSION SHIFTS INTO MAINE WITH MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT AND
BROAD SWLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
MAY SEE A FEW ISOLD RAIN SHOWERS REACHING NRN NY FROM LAKE
ONTARIO...BUT OTHERWISE LOOKING INTERVALS OF CLOUDS/SUN. STILL +7 TO
+8C AT 850MB IN SW FLOW REGIME AND TEMPERATURES - WHILE NOT AS WARM
AS RECENT DAYS - WILL STILL REACH THE MID-UPR 60S FOR MOST VALLEY
SECTIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE A BIT GUSTY AT TIMES WITH
SW GRADIENT FLOW...GENERALLY 10-15 MPH WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS OF 20-30
MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT...DEEP-LAYER SWLY FLOW REMAINS AND STRENGTHENS
IN ADVANCE OF A DIGGING TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/SERN ONTARIO.
PROBABLY LOOKING AT A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR LAKE CHAMPLAIN AS
P-GRADIENT INCREASES. WELL-MIXED PBL SHOULD KEEP THINGS FAIRLY MILD
WITH LOWS IN THE UPR 40S TO MID 50S (WARMEST IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY). SHOULD SEE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS VERMONT...BUT AN
INCREASE TO MOSTLY CLOUDY/CLOUDY CONDITIONS IN ADVANCE OF
APPROACHING MID-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS NRN NY. MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS
DEVELOP DURING THE PRE-DAWN HRS ACROSS OUR NY COUNTIES AS WELL...AND
WILL INDICATE 20-40 POPS FOR WESTERN ZONES.
FOR SATURDAY...IT APPEARS THAT A RATHER VIGOROUS REINFORCING
MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT EWD INTO THE
NORTH COUNTRY. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS ACROSS
THE VALLEYS OF S-CENTRAL VERMONT...UP TO 0.25" ACROSS THE NRN
MOUNTAINS. GIVEN CONSISTENCY IN NWP GUIDANCE SUITE, WILL CARRY 70-80
POPS ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE VALLEYS OF CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
EARLY AFTERNOON MAXES OF LOW-MID 60S ACROSS VERMONT...BUT LIKELY
REMAINING IN THE MID-UPR 50S WITH EARLIER FRONTAL WIND SHIFT AND
LOW-LEVEL CAA OFFSETTING DIURNAL TRENDS DURING THE DAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 318 AM EDT THURSDAY...A BRUTAL CHANGE WITH TEMPERATURES SOME
20-25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THIS PAST TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TO PERHAPS
5+ DEGS BLO NORMAL BY SUNDAY WITH BLUSTERY COLD RAIN SHOWERS IN
VLYS BUT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS PSBL.
CORE OF THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NORTHEAST WITH A STRONG COLD
FRONT TRACKING THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY SATURDAY AFTN-SATURDAY
NIGHT AND THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINING ACRS FA THRU SUNDAY. THIS WILL
SUPPORT ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS WITH P-TYPE
LIKELY CHANGING TO SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AS 925-850MB
TEMPS CRASH BELOW 0C FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
MONDAY...BROAD NW CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES WITH SOME WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING FOR MONDAY...THUS RELATIVELY DRY BUT AOB
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
TUESDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND SFC WAVE EVENTUALLY RESULTING INTO
ANOTHER CLOSED UPPER LOW WITH SOME COASTAL DEVELOPMENT. ATTM...MAIN
SHIELD OF PCPN SHOULD REMAIN ESE OF FA BUT TROF AXIS ACROSS CWA THUS
CANT RULE OUT SOME INSTABILTY VLY SHRA AND PERHAPS MTN SHSN.
THEREAFTER...HIGH PRESSURE FROM QUEBEC DOWN THROUGH GREAT LAKES
BUILD INTO FA BUT REMAINING ON THE SEASONABLY COOL SIDE FOR WED.
IN REGARDS TO TEMPS...MORE FALL-LIKE TEMPS RETURN WITH HIGHS
SUN/MON/TUE ONLY IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S AND LOWS IN THE 20S AND
30S.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/RAIN HAS MOVED INTO
FA AS ADVERTISED WITH CONTINUED PLUME OF SHOWERS OFFSHORE OF NC
COAST HEADED TOWARD ERN VT/NEW ENGLAND. GRADUAL WEST TO EAST
MOVEMENT WITH SHRA ENDING IN NY BY ERLY-MID AFTN...CHMPL VLY MID-
LATE AFTN AND CT RVR VLY POSSIBLY AS LATE AS 06Z FRI.
MDL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN WAY TOO PESSIMISTIC WITH IFR CIGS THE LAST
FEW DAYS AND BASED ON CURRENT AND UPSTREAM OBS HAVE BROUGHT VFR
LOWERING TO MVFR WITH SCT IFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER SHRA ACTIVITY
AND THEN PERHAPS SCT IFR OVERNIGHT AT KMPV.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THRU THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... DRYING ON FRIDAY WITH MAINLY
VFR CONDS. ANOTHER FRNT WL PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
SATURDAY...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY SAT AFTN/EVENING. A WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST WL OCCUR SAT NIGHT BEHIND THIS FRNT WITH A FEW MTN SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT SLK.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SLW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
715 AM EDT THU OCT 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A MOISTURE LADEN OCCLUDED FRONT AND ASSOCIATED RAINBAND WILL SHIFT
SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD FROM NEW YORK ACROSS VERMONT TODAY. PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL AMOUNT TO 1 TO 2 INCHES OF TOTAL
RAINFALL BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED
OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH BRINGS A RETURN TO
COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL COOL SUFFICIENTLY FOR HIGHER SUMMIT SNOW
SHOWERS BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH A LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER PEAKS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 318 AM EDT THURSDAY...SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOW AND LEADING
OCCLUDED FRONTAL BOUNDARY FINALLY MAKING THEIR WAY NEWD INTO THE
NORTH COUNTRY THIS MORNING. LOOKING AT OVERCAST CONDITIONS AND
VERY MILD/MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE GIVEN THE PROLONGED FETCH OF
SOUTHERLY FLOW DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS (INCLUDING RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES OF 79F AND 80F ON 10/14 AND 10/15, RESPECTIVELY).
DAYTIME TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 70S TODAY AREAWIDE.
SPC MESOANALYSIS BASED ON RAP MODEL SHOWS PW PLUME OF 1.6-1.8"
FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EXTENDING NNWWD ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND
ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND NEW YORK. THE FRONTAL RAINBAND WILL
PRODUCE PERIODS OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN...WHILE
GRADUALLY SHIFTING FROM NY/CHAMPLAIN VALLEY THIS MORNING INTO
CENTRAL/ERN VERMONT LATER IN THE DAY. POPS NEAR 100 PERCENT. WILL
SEE AREAS OF 1-1.5" RAINFALL BY EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH HIGHEST
TOTALS ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS WITH SFC-900MB SELY
UPSLOPE ENHANCING RAINFALL AMOUNTS A BIT. AT THE SAME TIME...THERE
WILL BE SOME DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND ALONG
THE NRN SLOPES OF THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE SOME LULLS IN THE
PRECIPITATION CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS BREEZY AS RECENT DAYS...GENERALLY
SELY AROUND 10 MPH. SOME LOCALIZED DOWNSLOPE FLOW IS POSSIBLE
ALONG THE WRN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE WESTERN SLOPES. RELATIVELY STABLE BOUNDARY
LAYER OWING TO RAINFALL WILL GENERALLY PRECLUDE ANY HIGHER WIND
GUST POTENTIAL AND KEEP THE FOOTPRINT OF ANY STRONGER GUSTS
RELATIVELY SMALL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 318 AM EDT THURSDAY...
TONIGHT...SURFACE OCCLUDED FRONT SHIFTS SLOWLY NEWD ACROSS
CENTRAL/NERN VT TONIGHT. WILL SEE STEADY RAINFALL GRADUALLY WORK ITS
WAY OUT OF CENTRAL/ERN VT BY MIDNIGHT OR SO...WITH JUST SOME
SPRINKLES/ISOLD SHOWERS IN THE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS NRN NY
AND WRN VT. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-2" STILL LOOK ON
TRACK. WITH DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS AND RIVERS RUNNING NEAR BASE
LEVELS...ONLY LOOKING FOR MINOR FIELD AND STREET FLOODING IN
FOCUSED AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN. LEAVES CAN SOMETIMES CLOG STORM DRAINS
ADDING TO A BIT OF STREET FLOODING...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC
IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
REMAIN SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE MID-OCTOBER AVERAGES WITH READINGS MOSTLY
IN THE MID-UPR 50S (15-20 DEG ABOVE NORMAL).
FRIDAY...OCCLUSION SHIFTS INTO MAINE WITH MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT AND
BROAD SWLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
MAY SEE A FEW ISOLD RAIN SHOWERS REACHING NRN NY FROM LAKE
ONTARIO...BUT OTHERWISE LOOKING INTERVALS OF CLOUDS/SUN. STILL +7 TO
+8C AT 850MB IN SW FLOW REGIME AND TEMPERATURES - WHILE NOT AS WARM
AS RECENT DAYS - WILL STILL REACH THE MID-UPR 60S FOR MOST VALLEY
SECTIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE A BIT GUSTY AT TIMES WITH
SW GRADIENT FLOW...GENERALLY 10-15 MPH WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS OF 20-30
MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT...DEEP-LAYER SWLY FLOW REMAINS AND STRENGTHENS
IN ADVANCE OF A DIGGING TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/SERN ONTARIO.
PROBABLY LOOKING AT A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR LAKE CHAMPLAIN AS
P-GRADIENT INCREASES. WELL-MIXED PBL SHOULD KEEP THINGS FAIRLY MILD
WITH LOWS IN THE UPR 40S TO MID 50S (WARMEST IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY). SHOULD SEE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS VERMONT...BUT AN
INCREASE TO MOSTLY CLOUDY/CLOUDY CONDITIONS IN ADVANCE OF
APPROACHING MID-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS NRN NY. MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS
DEVELOP DURING THE PRE-DAWN HRS ACROSS OUR NY COUNTIES AS WELL...AND
WILL INDICATE 20-40 POPS FOR WESTERN ZONES.
FOR SATURDAY...IT APPEARS THAT A RATHER VIGOROUS REINFORCING
MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT EWD INTO THE
NORTH COUNTRY. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS ACROSS
THE VALLEYS OF S-CENTRAL VERMONT...UP TO 0.25" ACROSS THE NRN
MOUNTAINS. GIVEN CONSISTENCY IN NWP GUIDANCE SUITE, WILL CARRY 70-80
POPS ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE VALLEYS OF CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
EARLY AFTERNOON MAXES OF LOW-MID 60S ACROSS VERMONT...BUT LIKELY
REMAINING IN THE MID-UPR 50S WITH EARLIER FRONTAL WIND SHIFT AND
LOW-LEVEL CAA OFFSETTING DIURNAL TRENDS DURING THE DAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 318 AM EDT THURSDAY...A BRUTAL CHANGE WITH TEMPERATURES SOME
20-25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THIS PAST TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TO PERHAPS
5+ DEGS BLO NORMAL BY SUNDAY WITH BLUSTERY COLD RAIN SHOWERS IN
VLYS BUT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS PSBL.
CORE OF THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NORTHEAST WITH A STRONG COLD
FRONT TRACKING THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY SATURDAY AFTN-SATURDAY
NIGHT AND THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINING ACRS FA THRU SUNDAY. THIS WILL
SUPPORT ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS WITH P-TYPE
LIKELY CHANGING TO SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AS 925-850MB
TEMPS CRASH BELOW 0C FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
MONDAY...BROAD NW CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES WITH SOME WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING FOR MONDAY...THUS RELATIVELY DRY BUT AOB
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
TUESDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND SFC WAVE EVENTUALLY RESULTING INTO
ANOTHER CLOSED UPPER LOW WITH SOME COASTAL DEVELOPMENT. ATTM...MAIN
SHIELD OF PCPN SHOULD REMAIN ESE OF FA BUT TROF AXIS ACROSS CWA THUS
CANT RULE OUT SOME INSTABILTY VLY SHRA AND PERHAPS MTN SHSN.
THEREAFTER...HIGH PRESSURE FROM QUEBEC DOWN THROUGH GREAT LAKES
BUILD INTO FA BUT REMAINING ON THE SEASONABLY COOL SIDE FOR WED.
IN REGARDS TO TEMPS...MORE FALL-LIKE TEMPS RETURN WITH HIGHS
SUN/MON/TUE ONLY IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S AND LOWS IN THE 20S AND
30S.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...SPOTTY SHRA ACTVTY ACROSS NRN NY BUT A MORE
ORGANZIED PLUME OF +SHRA MVG NNE ACROSS LOWER HUDSON VLY FOR
CHAMPL VLY AND NRN NY THRU 12Z. SHORTLY THEREAFTER...ANOTHER PLUME
LIKELY TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS CHAMPLAIN VLY AND VT THRU
EVENING WITH NY DRYING OUT.
MDL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN WAY TOO PESSIMISTIC WITH IFR CIGS THE LAST
FEW DAYS AND BASED ON CURRENT AND UPSTREAM OBS HAVE BROUGHT VFR
LOWERING TO MVFR WITH SCT IFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER SHRA ACTIVITY
AND THEN PERHAPS MORE CONFIDENT TNGT.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THRU THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... HEAVIER RAIN BAND SHOULD HAVE
EXITED BY 06Z FRIDAY...SOME LEFTOVER BL MOISTURE MAY PRODUCE SOME
LOW STRATUS CLOUDS AT MPV/SLK WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS POSSIBLE. ANOTHER
FRNT WL PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS SATURDAY...WITH BRIEF PERIODS
OF MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY...ESPECIALLY SAT AFTN/EVENING. A WIND
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WL OCCUR SAT NIGHT BEHIND THIS FRNT WITH A
FEW MTN SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT SLK.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...TABER/SLW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
944 AM EDT THU OCT 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS OVER LAKE ERIE WITH A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES ON
SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 940 AM EDT THURSDAY...
REGIONAL RADARS ARE DEPICTING A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS MOVING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH KY/WV. THE LEADING EDGE IS JUST STARTING TO
REACH THE FAR WESTERN PARTS OF OUR REGION BETWEEN ROUGHLY TAZEWELL
AND RICHLANDS VA. PREVAILING FLOW AROUND THE UPPER LOW JUST
ADVECT THIS ACTIVITY INTO MAINLY THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. HAVE INCREASED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY ACROSS A GREATER
SWATH OF THE REGION THAN PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED...SPECIFICALLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA. HAVE ALSO
EXTENDED THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FARTHER EAST THIS MORNING
BASED UPON SOME LIGHT RETURNS ON KFCX RADAR IN THIS REGION AND
BOTH HRRR AND RNK WRK ARW MODEL PROJECTIONS THE NEXT FEW HOURS. NO
OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
AS OF 430 AM EDT THURSDAY...
DEEP UPPER LOW OVER OHIO DRIFTS NORTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. TROF
AXIS WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE TONIGHT. UNTIL
THEN...THREE SHORT WAVES CROSS THE AREA. MODELS HAVE ONE OF THESE
WAVES CROSSING THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST
AREAS WILL STILL BE UNDER THE COLD CORE OF THE UPPER LOW. WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS. 850
MB WINDS FROM THE WEST AT 30-35 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. SHUD BE ENOUGH
MIXING FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.
WATER VAPOR LOOP AND MODELS HAD EXTENSIVE AREA OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE
WITH THE UPPER LOW. THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TODAY
AND BY THIS EVENING...MOISTURE WILL BE CONFINED TO LOW LEVELS IN THE
WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA.
BY 00Z/8PM...SURFACE THROUGH 850 MB WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST. THEN
SURFACE RIDGING FROM HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF COAST WILL BACK
WINDS. THIS WILL END THE MUCH OF THE UPSLOPE...EVEN IN THE FAR
WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA. HAVE TRIMMED BACK CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION AFTER MIDNIGHT.
STATED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY. EXPECTING ENOUGH CLEARING
IN ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHWEST TONIGHT FOR SOME DECENT RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS. WENT LOWER THAN GUIDANCE FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT THURSDAY...
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL
FINALLY BE LIFTING OUT OF THE REGION...BUT THE PARENT UPPER
LOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL ALLOW THE
UPPER LOW TO DUMBBELL BACK AROUND INTO THE REGION AS A SHORT WAVE
MOVES SOUTHEAST OUT OF ALBERTA AND ANOTHER SHORT WAVE...TRACKING
OVER AN UPPER RIDGE IN THE WESTERN STATES...PHASES WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE. THIS WILL SEND AN ALBERTA CLIPPER LIKE
SYSTEM INTO THE REGION FOR SAT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. FRI
HOWEVER...SHOULD BE ONE OF THE BEST DAYS IN THE LAST WEEK OR SO WITH
CONSIDERABLE AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE AND MILD TEMPS WITH WEST SFC FLOW
AND NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
STRONG DYNAMICS ARE INDICATED WITH THE APPROACHING SHORT WAVE
WITH STRONG PVA SAT/SAT EVENING...BUT MOISTURE IS LIMITED. SFC FLOW
IS WEST AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...WHICH WILL FURTHER LIMIT MOISTURE
ADVECTION INTO THE REGION...AND PRODUCE DOWNSLOPING/DRYING EAST OF
THE ALLEGHANY FRONT. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT -SHRA WILL MOST
DEFINITELY DEVELOP WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT LATE
SATURDAY/SATURDAY EVENING...WITH PERHAPS A FEW SPRINKLES REACHING
THE BLUE RIDGE AS THE UPPER SHORT WAVE TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT
TOWARD 06Z SUN AND ROTATES THROUGH THE REGION. FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT
POPS IN THE CHC RANGE...BUT COULD SEE SOME LOW LIKELYS FROM WESTERN
GREENBRIER INTO NW SUMMERS SAT EVENING. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL
BE MILDER WITH WEST FLOW...BUT CONSIDERABLE MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER
WILL INHIBIT HEATING WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND ESPECIALLY EASTERN
WV/SW VA.
AS WE MOVE INTO SAT NIGHT AND THE SHORT WAVE TAKES ON A NEGATIVE
TILT AND ROTATES THROUGH THE PARENT TROUGH...A NEAR WINTERLIKE
PATTERN IS EVIDENT...AT LEAST FOR ABOUT 6 HOURS INTO SUN MORNING.
DECENT 15-20KT UPSLOPE COMPONENT INDICATED AND 850MB TEMPS DROP INTO
THE -2C RANGE WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT TOWARD 12Z SUN. DO FEEL
THAT THE UPSLOPE COMPONENT IS SUFFICIENT ENOUGH WITH THE INDICATED
850MB TEMPS AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...MAINLY ABOVE 3500 FT...TO
SUPPORT OUR FIRST -SHSN OF THE SEASON. THIS WOULD MAINLY AFFECT
WESTERN GREENBRIER NORTHWARD...POSSIBLY EXTREME NW SUMMERS. SFC
TEMPS WILL LIKELY REMAIN AOA FREEZING EXCEPT AT THE VERY HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS...SO NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED AT ALL. ANY -SHSN SHOULD BE
ENDING QUICKLY AFT 12Z SUN AS THE UPSLOPE COMPONENT BECOMES LESS
FAVORABLE AND THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT. TEMPERATURES SUN WILL BE
COOLER...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE 50S WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND A FEW 40S IN WESTERN GREENBRIER
WHERE UPSLOPE CLOUDS COULD LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH FAIRLY QUICKLY...HOWEVER...AS THE DAY PROGRESSES WITH THE
UPPER FLOW QUICKLY RESPONDING TO THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT THURSDAY...
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH A SERIES OF NW FLOW SHORT
WAVES CONTINUING TO BE THE MAIN WEATHER MAKER FOR THE REGION. THE
MAIN CONCERN OF SIGNIFICANCE WILL BE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...WHEN SOME FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE EARLY SUN. HOWEVER...THE WIND MAY BE TOO
STRONG YET TO ALLOW FOR ANY WIDESPREAD FREEZE...WHICH HAS YET TO
OCCUR SO FAR THIS FALL. THIS WOULD BE THE LAST CHANCE FOR A FREEZE
FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH IS RAPIDLY
APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE MONDAY...WHICH
APPEARS SIMILAR TO THE SAT SYSTEM...ALBEIT LESS DYNAMIC AND OVERALL
FURTHER NORTH. THIS SHOULD BE FOLLOWED BY SEVERAL DAYS OF QUIET
WEATHER ONCE AGAIN WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR FREEZE/FROST COMING
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM EARLY THU.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 735 AM EDT THURSDAY...
IFR TO MVFR CLOUDS HAVE EXPANDED NORTH ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
WILL BE SPREADING INTO KBCB BEFORE 14Z/10AM. EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...BREAKS IN THE HIGH CLOUDS RESULTED IN PATCHY MVFR TO IFR
FOG FORMATION. EXPECT NO IMPACT FROM FOG AT KROA/KLYH AND KDAN.
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WAS APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. MORE SHOWERS WILL POP UP BY MID TO LATE MORNING WITH
SOME DAYTIME HEATING...BUT AS FLOW BECOMES MORE W AND
NW...DOWNSLOPE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE SHOULD KEEP KDAN/KLYH OUT OF
THE SHRA. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ANYWHERE FROM KBCB
WEST INTO SE WEST VIRGINIA...MAINLY BETWEEN 15Z/11AM AND 21Z/5PM.
AFTER SUNSET...CLOUDS WILL CLEAR EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. MVFR
CEILINGS WILL HOLD IN MUCH OF THE NIGHT IN SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA...INCLUDING KBLF AND KLWB.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
BY FRIDAY...THE INITIAL PIECE OF THE 5H TROUGH WILL LIFT BACK
NORTH ALLOWING FOR A DRIER ZONAL FLOW TO BRIEFLY DEVELOP WHICH
WILL BRING WIDESPREAD VFR TO END THE WEEK. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT LACKING
MOISTURE BUT ENOUGH TO LIKELY WRING OUT SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCED MVFR
LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS SE WEST VIRGINIA WHERE A FEW SHRA WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME OF THIS CLOUD COVER MAY SPILL INTO
KBCB/KROA GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE NW FLOW WITH LESS CLOUDS TO
THE EAST PER DOWNSLOPE DRYING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH VFR EXPECTED.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/DS
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...PC/RAB
AVIATION...AMS/JH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
242 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2014
.DISCUSSION...
1029 AM CDT
CONTINUED TO SLOW THE CLEARING TREND WITH THE STRATUS DECK
OVERHEAD THIS MORNING. THERE ARE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS NOTED
ON LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY...BUT THOSE QUICKLY FILL BACK IN WHILE
LOW CEILINGS OVER WEST AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS ARE NOT REALLY
MOVING. SO HAVE SLOWED THE CLEARING TREND FOR THESE MORE TOWARDS
THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON TIME FRAME AS THIS WESTERN EDGE ERODES
AND SHIFTS EAST...WITH THE EASTERN AREAS NOT LIKELY OBSERVING
CLEAR SKIES UNTIL EARLY THIS EVENING. REMOVED POPS THIS MORNING
BUT DID MAKE MENTION OF PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE MAINLY FOR THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA...WITH ONGOING DRIZZLE LIKELY PERSISTING
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS WEAK ASCENT CONTINUES WITHIN THE
OBSERVED SHALLOW MOIST LAYER.
RODRIGUEZ
//PREV DISCUSSION...
340 AM CDT
EARLY MORNING GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS OUR OLD UPPER
SPINNING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION OVER WISCONSIN AND ILLINOIS. SHEARED
OUT SHORT WAVE ENERGY/VORTICITY CHANNEL RUNNING NORTH-SOUTH
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE
WITHIN THE MOIST LOW-MID LEVEL ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION... THOUGH THIS LIGHT/SPOTTY PRECIP SHOULD MOVE
OFF TO THE EAST THIS MORNING WITH THE CONTINUED EASTWARD DRIFT OF
THE UPPER TROUGH. CLEARING LINE OVER FAR WESTERN IL/WI EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL ALSO MOVE SLOWLY EAST...WITH LOW CLOUD COVER EXPECTED
TO ERODE OVER NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS DURING THE MORNING AND ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF NORTHERN IL BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH SUBSIDENCE IN
REGION OF RISING HEIGHTS AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE UPPER RIDGE WHICH
MOVES INTO THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. GRADIENT IN CLOUD
COVERAGE WILL MAKE FOR A CONTRAST IN TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CWA
TODAY...WITH WESTERN AREAS WARMING INTO THE MID 60S WITH
CONSIDERABLE SUN WHILE EASTERN AREAS THAT ARE LAST TO CLEAR TOP
OUT AROUND 60.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS QUICKLY TO ANOTHER STRONG SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY
MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THIS MORNING. THIS WAVE IS ALSO
PROGGED CLOSE OFF IN THE MID-LEVELS AS IT TRACKS EAST ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER TODAY...BEFORE DIGGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AND CARVING OUT A LARGE LONG-WAVE
TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA AS THIS SYSTEM COMBINES WITH AND
NEARLY FUJI-WARAS WITH OLD CLOSED LOW TO OUR EAST. SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE DAKOTAS IN RESPONSE TO THIS SECOND WAVE WILL
MOVE TO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH A PACIFIC
COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA VERY EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. THE AIR MASS BEHIND THIS FRONT IS NOT SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER
THAN THE ONE CURRENTLY OVER THE MIDWEST...THUS TEMPS FRIDAY EXPECTED
TO AGAIN BE IN THE LOW-MID 60S WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS NEAR 30 MPH.
THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TOWARD
EVENING...WITH A SECONDARY PUSH OF COOLER AIR AS SURFACE WINDS SHIFT
NORTHWEST FRIDAY EVENING. WHILE A FEW SPRINKLES CANNOT BE RULED OUT
IN COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THIS SECONDARY FRONT FRIDAY EVENING...THE
BEST ORGANIZED FORCING FOR DEEPER LIFT AND MORE ORGANIZED PRECIP
PRODUCTION WILL REMAIN MAINLY NORTH/EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE STRONG SHORT WAVE AND EVOLVING LONG-WAVE TROUGH AXIS ARE OFF TO
THE EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING...THOUGH GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN BRINGING ANOTHER QUICK MOVING LOWER AMPLITUDE SHORT
WAVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY. WHILE THIS MAY KEEP
CLOUD COVER ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...THE
GREATEST THREAT OF SHOWERS AGAIN REMAINS OVER THE LAKE AND ACROSS
AREAS EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE CWA. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE IN
STORE BEHIND FRIDAY EVENINGS SECONDARY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS BACK IN THE LOW-MID 50S SATURDAY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SPREADS INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY TO OUR EAST...SETTING THE STAGE FOR
CLEARING SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND COLD OVERNIGHT TEMPS. CURRENT
INDICATIONS ARE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY DROP TO AROUND THE
FREEZING MARK ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST IL AWAY
FROM THE CHICAGO HEAT ISLAND BY SUNDAY MORNING. A GOOD FROST IS
LIKELY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING CONDITIONS IN SOME SPOTS.
THE SURFACE HIGH THEN MOVES EAST DURING THE DAY AS UPPER FLOW
PATTERN REMAINS VERY PROGRESSIVE...WITH WINDS SHIFTING SOUTH BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT DIGGING SHORT WAVE WHICH IS
PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. ONCE AGAIN DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING AND
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS LIMITED...THOUGH STRONGER FORCING IS A LITTLE
FURTHER SOUTH WITH THIS SYSTEM THAN THOSE EARLIER IN THE WEEKEND.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LAKES BY MONDAY
EVENING WITH THE COLD FRONT CLEARING THE CWA BY MONDAY NIGHT.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEPICT A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF NORTH AMERICA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
OUR MONDAY SYSTEM CLOSES OFF OVER THE EAST COAST. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS SLOWLY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DURING THIS TIME...
WITH A PERIOD OF QUIET/DRY WEATHER THROUGH MID-WEEK. NORTHEAST-EAST
LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH MAY LIMIT OUR WARMING BENEATH
THE UPPER RIDGE...THOUGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AT LEAST RETURN TO LATE
OCTOBER NORMALS OR A LITTLE BETTER.
RATZER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* IFR/LOWER MVFR CIGS REST OF TODAY...AND CIG TRENDS OVERNIGHT.
BMD
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
LOW CLOUD COVER...MAINLY IFR...PERSISTS ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND
NORTHWEST INDIANA...HOWEVER A FEW AREAS HAVE STARTED TO SHOW SIGNS
THAT THE DECK IS TRYING TO LIFT TO LOWER END MVFR. THE STRATUS HAS
SLOWLY BEEN ERODING FROM THE WEST AND IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR RFD BY
MID TO LATE THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE
CHICAGO TERMINALS BY SUNSET WHICH MAY RESULT IN CLOUD COVER
LINGERING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GUIDANCE IS MIXED ON WHETHER
IT WILL CLEAR TO VFR OR DROP BACK DOWN TO IFR OVERNIGHT AND
CONFIDENCE IS LOW BUT LEANING TOWARDS THE LATTER SOLUTION. A DRY
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND
SHOULD HELP SCOUR OUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL THEREAFTER ON FRIDAY...AND WNW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY WITH GUSTS INTO THE LOW TO MID 20 KT RANGE
BY AFTERNOON.
BMD
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN LOWER END MVFR OR IFR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
LOW CONFIDENCE ON CIG TRENDS OVERNIGHT.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS FROM MID MORNING ON FRIDAY.
BMD
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
* FRIDAY NIGHT...DRY/VFR. GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS.
* SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...DRY/VFR.
* MONDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
* TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...DRY/VFR. EASTERLY WINDS.
KJB
&&
.MARINE...
234 PM CDT
WILL MAINTAIN THE GALE WATCH. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND HOISTED A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS AS WINDS WILL BE RAMPING
UP FRIDAY MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH SAT NGT/SUN MORNING.
LOW PRESSURE DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN TO 29.3 INCHES AS IT
NEARS LAKE MICHIGAN...THEN GUIDANCE FURTHER DEEPENS THE LOW TO
AROUND 29.1 INCHES AS IT SHIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN QUEBEC
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN WINDS APPROACHING
30KT IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND LIKELY PRODUCE GALES POSSIBLY
NEARING 40 KTS IN THE OPEN WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
LAKE A LITTLE LONGER SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AND
BRING MUCH LIGHTER WINDS TO THE LAKE. THEN A QUICK MOVING LOW
PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE LAKE SUNDAY NGT-TUE AND COULD
BRING A BRIEF INCREASE TO THE WINDS. THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM
APPEARS TO BE MINIMAL...SO CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTING TO NEED ANY
HEADLINES.
BEACHLER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...GALE WATCH...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-LMZ567-
LMZ868...7 PM FRIDAY TO 7 PM SATURDAY.
GALE WATCH...LMZ080-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-
LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...7 PM FRIDAY TO 3 PM
SATURDAY.
&&
$$
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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1239 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1038 AM CDT THU OCT 16 2014
Persistent upper low that has brought several days of clouds and
showers to the Midwest is slowly exiting the region this morning,
with latest water vapor imagery showing it located over Ohio.
Cloud cover from this feature still blankets much of central
Illinois: however, skies have cleared along/west of a Galesburg to
Jacksonville line. Clearing is making only very slow eastward
progress, with satellite timing tools suggesting east-central
Illinois will likely remain overcast through the afternoon.
Meanwhile further west, skies will become mostly sunny along/west
of the I-55 corridor. High temperatures will range from around 60
along the Indiana border to the upper 60s in the Illinois River
Valley. Will make some updates to hourly sky/temp grids and send a
zone update out shortly.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT THU OCT 16 2014
Deep upper low over Ohio this morning, keeping cloud cover all the
way back into Illinois under northerly/cyclonic flow. Back edge to
the clouds pretty distinct this morning to the west, just east of
the Mississippi River Valley. Weak ridging moving out of the
Plains, but the cut off low is very slow to move out of the region
until the kicker moves in. Said wave is over Montana this morning
and slated to move in late tonight, though the upper low will begin
its easterly drift today. Very slow in going anywhere, the big
question for today is the timing of the back edge/clearing.
850mb-700mb moisture profiles pretty similar btwn GFS and NAM...with
the HRRR also slow to clear today. Most of the CWA remains under
cloudy skies this morning...slowly clearing the western half of the
state by mid day. As a result, cooler in the east.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT THU OCT 16 2014
With the upper low moving out today and tonight...northwesterly flow
briefly kicks in...with kicker wave diving into the larger scale
trof and spinning around the exiting system. New wave bringing a
weak sfc boundary that is barely a shift of winds. Cold front
expected to pass with little notice on Friday. However weak, an
increasing pressure gradient at the surface and some higher winds
aloft will result in a breezy day with 20mph winds in the northern
half of the state sustained...gusting 25-30. Ridge builds in for the
weekend and the forecast remains dry with highs in the 50s and a
chilly Sunday morning. Next chance for precip very small and in
response to another wave moving into the Upper Midwest late
Sunday/Monday. In fact, the ECMWF is the only model persistent with
this feature actually pushing any QPF. The GFS has the wave, but
remains dry this far south. Weak southerly flow and cloud cover
will make Sunday night a little warmer than Sat night. Better precip
chances will be further to the north, as the wave is running into a
weak ridge over the region. That being said, silent slight chances
on Sun night/Mon remain the only precip in the forecast. Sfc
ridging and slightly cooler than seasonal norms expected in the
remainder of the 7 day forecast.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2014
IFR/MVFR ceilings persist across the eastern half of the KILX CWA
early this afternoon. 17z visible satellite imagery shows clearing
line from KPIA to KSPI and inching eastward. Based on timing
tools, clearing will reach KBMI/KDEC by 22z and further east to
KCMI by 02z. Winds will be W/SW at less than 10kt this afternoon,
then will back to the S this evening. Trough axis currently across
the eastern Dakotas into eastern Nebraska will push through the
region tonight, accompanied by a few high clouds and a wind shift
back to the W/SW overnight. After that, a cold front dropping
southward out of Canada will pass through Friday morning, turning
the winds to the W/NW. Big question will be whether or not MVFR
ceilings currently evident on satellite imagery behind this
boundary will spread/develop southward to the TAF sites after
FROPA. While NAM is quite aggressive in bringing clouds to at
least the I-74 corridor by 15z, other models hold them further
northwest. At this point, will only mention SCT low clouds between
14z and 18z as the front passes, thinking any BKN ceilings will
hold off until afternoon.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Barnes
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Barnes
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
146 PM EDT THU OCT 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER TODAY...THEN CROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
AFTER COORD WITH GYX HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF
PISCATAQUIS AS WELL AS SOUTHERN PENOBSCOT COUNTY BEGINNING LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH NOON FRIDAY. SEE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR MORE
DETAILS.
OTHERWISE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE AFTERNOON FORECAST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE THE TIMING OF RAINFALL AND AMOUNTS.
06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTED A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE
CROWN OF MAINE FROM ABOUT CARIBOU BACK THROUGH ALLAGASH. NORTH OF
THIS BOUNDARY TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT,
TEMPERATURES WERE RUNNING IN THE 60S. LATEST RADAR SHOWED A BATCH
OF PRECIP(SHOWERS) MOVING ACROSS THE NWRN TIP OF MAINE W/SOME VERY
LIGHT RETURNS SHOWING UP FROM TO TIME SOUTH OF THIS AREA DOWN INTO
THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS. THE LATEST RAP AND NAM SOUNDINGS
CONFIRMED THIS TO BE DRIZZLE W/A DEEP LLVL MOISTURE PROFILE, LIGHT
ESE WINDS AND A DECENT DRY WEDGE NORTH OF THE MOIST LAYER. DECIDED
TO CARRY DRIZZLE AND FOG INTO THE MID MORNING. THERE WILL BE SOME
SHOWERS AROUND, BUT THEY WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED AND CONFINED TO
THE W AND SW AS FORCING IS WEAK AT BEST AND LIMITED TO THE LLVLS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN TODAY W/READINGS IN THE
60S.
ALL THIS IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
AS AN OCCLUDED FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO TAP INTO A TROPICAL CONNECTION ASSOCIATED W/HRCN
GONZALO. THIS CONNECTION CAN BE SEEN ON THE LATEST SATELLITE WV
IMAGERY AS A STRONG PLUME IS SHOWN PUSHING N ALONG THE ATLC
SEABOARD. HIGH PWATS OF 1.5+ INCHES, A LLVL JET OF 50 KTS AND
STRONG SSE INFLOW THROUGH 700MBS SUPPORTS POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY
RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MDL SOUNDINGS ALSO POINT TO SOME
ELEVATED CAPE ESPECIALLY FROM THE SW INTO EASTERN AREAS BY EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. LIGHTING STRIKES WERE SEEN ALONG THE VIRGINIA-NORTH
CAROLINA COAST AS OF 06Z. DECIDED TO KEEP THE MENTION OF HEAVY
RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST AND ADDED THE MENTION OF TSTMS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS INCLUDING PISCATAQUIS CO. AND
UPSLOPE FAVORED AREAS WILL SEE OVER 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL W/SOME
SPOTS HITTING 3 INCHES IN A 12 HR PERIOD. AFTER COORDINATION
W/GYX, DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH. SOME MINOR
FLOODING COULD OCCUR ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS, BUT RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL BE ABLE TO HANDLE THIS
RAINFALL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE OCCLUDED FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON. DEEP MOISTURE...WITH A TROPICAL
CONNECTION...WILL BE DRAWN NORTH ACROSS THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF
THE FRONT. AN AREA OF RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL CROSS THE
REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE OCCLUSION WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
ALSO POSSIBLE. PRECIPITATION WILL THEN TAPER TO SHOWERS IN THE
WAKE OF THE OCCLUSION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. COULD HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS FRIDAY EVENING.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
DOWNEAST. A LOW LEVEL JET WILL ALSO CROSS THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF
THE OCCLUSION. GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF THE
OCCLUSION...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST.
HOWEVER...FORECAST WINDS APPEAR SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN WITH PREVIOUS
MODEL RUNS. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATER
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS FRIDAY/SATURDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION SUNDAY...WHILE AN
UPPER TROF CROSSES THE REGION. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS SUNDAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS DOWNEAST. COULD HAVE A CHANCE
OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
UPPER TROF WILL MOVE NORTHEAST MONDAY. COULD HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF MORNING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS MONDAY.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES NORTH WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DOWNEAST MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. EXPECT
INCREASING CLOUDS TUESDAY...WITH RAIN CHANCES THEN INCREASING
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS SUNDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVEL
TEMPERATURES MONDAY/TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR RIGHT INTO TONIGHT. THERE COULD BE PERIODS OF MVFR
EARLY TODAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERMINALS.
SHORT TERM: IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN IMPROVING TO MVFR/VFR
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS AND LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
COULD BE A CONCERN FRIDAY MORNING WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
ALSO POSSIBLE. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. OCCASIONAL MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION LATER SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS. GENERALLY
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY...THOUGH OCCASIONAL
MVFR CONDITIONS COULD LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS EARLY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: DECIDED TO GO W/A SCA STARTING LATER TONIGHT AS WINDS
AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE OCCLUSION. THE NAM
AND GFS BOTH SUPPORT A LLVL JET OF 50 KTS MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS
LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. SOME THIS STRONG WIND COULD MIX
DOWN TO THE SURFACE. DECIDED TO GO W/GUSTS 25+ KTS AFTER MIDNIGHT
W/SEAS BUILDING TO 7 FT BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE
WATERS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED
IN RAIN AND FOG FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH
NOON FRIDAY FOR ALL OF PISCATAQUIS AS WELL AS SOUTHERN PENOBSCOT
COUNTIES. WE ARE EXPECTING ANYWHERE FROM 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL
FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EAST FACING HIGHER TERRAIN OF PISCATQUIS
COUNTY. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING ACROSS THE WATCH AREA.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING FOR MEZ004-010-015-031.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...DUDA/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...DUDA/HEWITT/NORCROSS
MARINE...DUDA/HEWITT/NORCROSS
HYDROLOGY...DUDA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
250 PM EDT THU OCT 16 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1003 AM EDT THU OCT 16 2014
...CLOUDS STICKING AROUND BUT DRIZZLE AND FOG SHOULD END THIS
AFTERNOON...
TWEAKED GOING FORECAST MAINLY FOR THE DENSE FOG ALONG SHORELINE OF
WESTERN CWA. LIMITED ADVECTION AS WINDS ARE LIGHT MAY MAKE IT HARD
TO GET RID OF THIS FOG. FOR MOST PART...THICKEST FOG IS OVER THE
LAKE BUT WEB CAMS FROM ASHLAND WI...PORCUPINE MTS...ONTONAGON...AND
EAGLE HARBOR SHOW IT PUSHING JUST INLAND AS WELL. ELSEWHERE...JUST
SEEING SOME LINGERING DRIZZLE OVER PARTS OF CNTRL CWA AND 1-3SM TYPE
FOG. PROBABLY WILL SEE THE DRIZZLE AND FOG DISIPPATE BY EARLY AFTN
BUT THE CLOUDS LIKELY WILL STAY DUE TO THE LACK OF DRY AIR
ADVECTION BENEATH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AROUND H85-H8 PER FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND 12Z RAOBS FM KINL AND KGRB. IMPACT TO TEMPS NOT TOO
LARGE AS HIGHEST READINGS IN THE 50S STILL EXPECTED OVER FAR WEST
CWA WHERE SKIES ARE ALREADY PARTLY CLOUDY ATTM.
NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OF NOTE IS PUSHING ACROSS EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WITH SHARP WIND SHIFT NOTED OVER WESTERN DAKOTAS. SHOULD SEE
SIMILAR WEATHER OVER UPR MICHIGAN ON FRIDAY WITH INCREASING NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS AND MORE RAIN AS THAT DAKOTAS SYSTEM MERGES WITH THE
SYSTEM THAT MOVED ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION EARLIER THIS WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 459 AM EDT THU OCT 16 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTERED OVER IN/OH. MUCH OF THE FCST AREA REMAINS UNDER
CONSIDERABLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE NW SIDE OF THIS FEATURE...AND
KMQT RADAR HAS SHOWN SPOTTY -SHRA/SPRINKLES AT TIMES OVER THE ERN
FCST AREA OVERNIGHT. MUCH OF FAR WRN UPPER MI ENJOYED SUNNY SKIES
YESTERDAY. DURING THE NIGHT...SOME FOG HAS FORMED IN THAT AREA AS
WELL AS SOME LOW CLOUDS FROM PORTIONS OF THE KEWEENAW DOWN ALONG THE
VCNTY OF THE SHORELINE INTO NW WI. UPSTREAM...A RATHER POTENT
LOOKING SHORTWAVE IS MOVING E ACROSS MT WITH ASSOCIATED SFC LOW IN
THE ND/SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA BORDER AREA.
FOR TODAY...SOME -SHRA/SPRINKLES MAY CONTINUE TO APPEAR AT TIMES
THRU THE MID MORNING OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE FCST AREA UNDER
LINGERING WEAK DEEP LAYER FORCING PER QVECTORS. DEEP LAYER QVECTOR
DIVERGENCE THEN TAKES OVER...SO IT APPEARS DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE THE
RULE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTN. BIGGEST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE
CLOUD TRENDS. WITH A LIGHT/VRBL WIND REGIME ACROSS THE AREA TODAY
BTWN SFC LOW IN SRN ONTARIO AND APPROACHING LOW MOVING ALONG
U.S./CANADA BORDER...THERE WILL BE LITTLE ADVECTION OCCURRING.
THUS...A PESSIMISTIC CLOUD FCST APPEARS TO BE THE WAY TO GO. THE W
WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE THE BETTER OPPORTUNITY TO SEE SOME
SUNSHINE...AND THIS SHOULD HELP BOOST TEMPS TO AROUND 60F. WHERE
CLOUDS ARE MORE PERSISTENT...LWR 50S WILL BE MORE COMMON.
TONIGHT...THE POTENT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK INTO NRN MN AND
WILL HELP PICK UP THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY.
AS THIS OCCURS...PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE LATTER FEATURE WILL SWING
BACK TO THE NW WITH LEFT EXIT OF 100KT UPPER JET STREAK ON E SIDE OF
THE LOW ASSISTING PCPN PRODUCTION. MUCH OF THAT PCPN SHOULD PASS BY
TO THE E AND N OF UPPER MI...BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO MENTION SCHC POPS
OVER THE FAR E LATE. MEANWHILE...FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE WILL SPREAD INTO WRN UPPER MI. INITIALLY...DEEP MOISTURE
IN THE COLUMN IS LACKING...SO IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME BEFORE PCPN
DEVELOPS. BEST POTENTIAL FOR PCPN SHOULD COME WITH THE ADDITION OF
LOWER LEVEL FORCING FROM SFC-850MB TROF TRAILING WNW FROM SFC LOW
WHICH SHOULD BE IN THE VCNTY OF CNTRL UPPER MI AT 12Z MON. HAVE THUS
INTRODUCED CHC POPS OVER WRN UPPER LATE TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT THU OCT 16 2014
NAM SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES 00Z SAT WITH A
TROUGH OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THERE IS A SHORTWAVE THAT IS
MOVING DOWN THE RIDGE AND WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FRI
NIGHT FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE LATE SUN.
DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR THIS
FORECAST PERIOD FOR TEMPERATURE OR WEATHER. HAVE LIKELY POPS IN FOR
FRI NIGHT AND SAT IN UPSLOPE AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AND THEN DRY
THINGS OUT STARTING SAT AFTERNOON BEFORE BRINGING IN SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR LATE SUN.
IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES 12Z MON WITH A SFC FRONT AND LOW PASSING THROUGH THE
AREA. THIS TROUGH MOVES EAST ON TUE AND A 500 MB RIDGE BUILDS INTO
THE PLAINS THEN. THE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z WED
THROUGH 12Z THU. THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL HAVE MOSTLY A DRY AND
WARMING TREND WITH TEMPERATURES GOING ABOVE NORMAL BY TUE. WILL BE
DRY MON NIGHT THROUGH THU FOR THIS FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 147 PM EDT THU OCT 16 2014
AT KIWD AND KCMX...VFR CONDITIONS INTO TONIGHT...THEN AS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA BEGINS TO CROSS THE AREA
AND WINDS TURN NORTHERLY...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO RAPIDLY DETERIORATE
TO IFR OR EVEN LOWER IN RAIN AND FOG.
AT KSAW...WITH WEAK WINDS INTO TONIGHT AND LACK OF DRY AIR
ADVECTION...LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT KSAW. VSBY SHOULD
FALL BACK TO IFR LATER TONIGHT WITH NIGHTTIME COOLING LEADING TO
MORE SATURATION. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH ON FRIDAY WILL
SWITCH WINDS TO NORTHERLY MID-LATE MORNING WHICH WILL RESULT IN
CONTINUATION OF LOW CLOUDS...AT LEAST AS LOW AS IFR. VSBY MAY
IMPROVE FOR A TIME THOUGH...BEFORE STEADIER RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS
DEVELOP ON FRIDAY AFTN.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 434 AM EDT THU OCT 16 2014
EXPECT LIGHT WINDS INTO EARLY FRI UNDER A RELATIVELY WEAK PRES
GRADIENT. BUT THEN AS A PAIR OF UPPER DISTURBANCES COMBINE ON FRI...
A DEEP LO PRES WILL DEVELOP IN SE CANADA AND BRING INCREASING NNW
WINDS THAT INCREASE TO GALE FORCE/UP TO 40 KTS ON FRI AFTERNOON AND
FRI NIGHT THAT IMPACT ALMOST ALL OF LAKE SUPERIOR INTO NORTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN. ISSUED GALE WATCHES FOR ALL BUT FAR WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR...WHERE THE WINDS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG. AS A HI PRES
RIDGE APPROACHES FROM THE W ON SAT...THE STRONG WINDS WILL DIMINISH
W-E. ALTHOUGH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE/SURFACE LO PRES WILL TRACK ACROSS
THE UPPER LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK...NO STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
LSZ248>251-267.
GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
LSZ266.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT /4 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LSZ162-241>244-263-264.
GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
LSZ263>265.
GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
LSZ244-245.
GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
LSZ242-243.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
LMZ248-250.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JLA
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
148 PM EDT THU OCT 16 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1003 AM EDT THU OCT 16 2014
...CLOUDS STICKING AROUND BUT DRIZZLE AND FOG SHOULD END THIS
AFTERNOON...
TWEAKED GOING FORECAST MAINLY FOR THE DENSE FOG ALONG SHORELINE OF
WESTERN CWA. LIMITED ADVECTION AS WINDS ARE LIGHT MAY MAKE IT HARD
TO GET RID OF THIS FOG. FOR MOST PART...THICKEST FOG IS OVER THE
LAKE BUT WEB CAMS FROM ASHLAND WI...PORCUPINE MTS...ONTONAGON...AND
EAGLE HARBOR SHOW IT PUSHING JUST INLAND AS WELL. ELSEWHERE...JUST
SEEING SOME LINGERING DRIZZLE OVER PARTS OF CNTRL CWA AND 1-3SM TYPE
FOG. PROBABLY WILL SEE THE DRIZZLE AND FOG DISIPPATE BY EARLY AFTN
BUT THE CLOUDS LIKELY WILL STAY DUE TO THE LACK OF DRY AIR
ADVECTION BENEATH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AROUND H85-H8 PER FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND 12Z RAOBS FM KINL AND KGRB. IMPACT TO TEMPS NOT TOO
LARGE AS HIGHEST READINGS IN THE 50S STILL EXPECTED OVER FAR WEST
CWA WHERE SKIES ARE ALREADY PARTLY CLOUDY ATTM.
NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OF NOTE IS PUSHING ACROSS EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WITH SHARP WIND SHIFT NOTED OVER WESTERN DAKOTAS. SHOULD SEE
SIMILAR WEATHER OVER UPR MICHIGAN ON FRIDAY WITH INCREASING NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS AND MORE RAIN AS THAT DAKOTAS SYSTEM MERGES WITH THE
SYSTEM THAT MOVED ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION EARLIER THIS WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 459 AM EDT THU OCT 16 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTERED OVER IN/OH. MUCH OF THE FCST AREA REMAINS UNDER
CONSIDERABLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE NW SIDE OF THIS FEATURE...AND
KMQT RADAR HAS SHOWN SPOTTY -SHRA/SPRINKLES AT TIMES OVER THE ERN
FCST AREA OVERNIGHT. MUCH OF FAR WRN UPPER MI ENJOYED SUNNY SKIES
YESTERDAY. DURING THE NIGHT...SOME FOG HAS FORMED IN THAT AREA AS
WELL AS SOME LOW CLOUDS FROM PORTIONS OF THE KEWEENAW DOWN ALONG THE
VCNTY OF THE SHORELINE INTO NW WI. UPSTREAM...A RATHER POTENT
LOOKING SHORTWAVE IS MOVING E ACROSS MT WITH ASSOCIATED SFC LOW IN
THE ND/SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA BORDER AREA.
FOR TODAY...SOME -SHRA/SPRINKLES MAY CONTINUE TO APPEAR AT TIMES
THRU THE MID MORNING OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE FCST AREA UNDER
LINGERING WEAK DEEP LAYER FORCING PER QVECTORS. DEEP LAYER QVECTOR
DIVERGENCE THEN TAKES OVER...SO IT APPEARS DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE THE
RULE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTN. BIGGEST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE
CLOUD TRENDS. WITH A LIGHT/VRBL WIND REGIME ACROSS THE AREA TODAY
BTWN SFC LOW IN SRN ONTARIO AND APPROACHING LOW MOVING ALONG
U.S./CANADA BORDER...THERE WILL BE LITTLE ADVECTION OCCURRING.
THUS...A PESSIMISTIC CLOUD FCST APPEARS TO BE THE WAY TO GO. THE W
WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE THE BETTER OPPORTUNITY TO SEE SOME
SUNSHINE...AND THIS SHOULD HELP BOOST TEMPS TO AROUND 60F. WHERE
CLOUDS ARE MORE PERSISTENT...LWR 50S WILL BE MORE COMMON.
TONIGHT...THE POTENT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK INTO NRN MN AND
WILL HELP PICK UP THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY.
AS THIS OCCURS...PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE LATTER FEATURE WILL SWING
BACK TO THE NW WITH LEFT EXIT OF 100KT UPPER JET STREAK ON E SIDE OF
THE LOW ASSISTING PCPN PRODUCTION. MUCH OF THAT PCPN SHOULD PASS BY
TO THE E AND N OF UPPER MI...BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO MENTION SCHC POPS
OVER THE FAR E LATE. MEANWHILE...FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE WILL SPREAD INTO WRN UPPER MI. INITIALLY...DEEP MOISTURE
IN THE COLUMN IS LACKING...SO IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME BEFORE PCPN
DEVELOPS. BEST POTENTIAL FOR PCPN SHOULD COME WITH THE ADDITION OF
LOWER LEVEL FORCING FROM SFC-850MB TROF TRAILING WNW FROM SFC LOW
WHICH SHOULD BE IN THE VCNTY OF CNTRL UPPER MI AT 12Z MON. HAVE THUS
INTRODUCED CHC POPS OVER WRN UPPER LATE TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 AM EDT THU OCT 16 2014
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE MEDIUM/LONG TERM WL FOCUS ON POPS AND
WINDS ON FRI INTO SAT AS A STRONG DISTURBANCE SLIDES THRU THE UPR
LKS AND INTERACTS WITH SLOW MOVING CLOSED LO RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
RECENT INCLEMENT WX OVER THE E HALF OF UPR MI. AS THE DISTURBANCES
PHASE...A DEEP LO PRES WL DVLP OVER SE CANADA...BRINGING A STRONG
AND COLDER NW FLOW THAT WL RESULT IN SOME LK ENHANCED PCPN FOR A
TIME ON FRI NGT. RIGHT NOW...IT APPEARS MOST OF THE PCPN WL FALL AS
RA.
FRI/FRI NGT...STRONG SHRTWV CROSSING THE NRN ROCKIES EARLY THIS MRNG
IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE UPR LKS ON FRI AND MERGE WITH THE
SLUGGIST CLOSED LO NOW OVER THE OH RIVER VALLEY THAT WL BE MOVING
NEWD THRU SE ONTARIO AT THAT TIME. THE RESULT WL BE A DEEPENING SFC
LO PRES NEAR JAMES BAY AND STRENGTHENING NNW WINDS/CAD IN THE UPR
LKS ON FRI AFTN AND NGT. ALTHOUGH THERE WL BE LTL MSTR INFLOW IN
ADVANCE OF THE SHRTWV MOVING IN FM THE W ON FRI THAT WL LIMIT THE
INTENSITY OF THE ACCOMPANYING QVECTOR CNVGC...VIGOROUS NATURE OF
THIS SHRTWV/PVA ACCOMPANIED BY 12HR H5 HGT FALLS UP 100M WL SUPPORT
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NRN CWA ON THE CYC
SIDE OF SHRTWV TRACK AND WHERE MODELS SHOW MORE APPRECIABLE DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC/UPR DVGC. EXPECT THE LOWEST POPS OVER THE SCENTRAL
WITH DOWNSLOPE W VEERING NW LLVL WIND COMPONENT. AS NNW H925 WINDS
INCRSG UP TO 40-45 KTS LATE FRI/FRI NGT DRIVE H85 TEMPS DOWN TO -4
TO -6C ON FRI NGT IN THE PRESENCE OF SOME LINGERING DEEP MSTR ON THE
CYC SIDE OF A REINFORCING SHRTWV DIGGING SSEWD THRU MN...EXPECT A
PERIOD OF LK ENHANCED PCPN THAT MAY FEATURE SOME SN MIXING IN WITH
THE RA AT LEAST OVER THE HIER TERRAIN OF THE NW HALF. WINDS WL
LIKELY AT LEAST APRCH ADVY CRITERIA...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LK SUP
SHORE WITH THE INCRSG INSTABILITY. THE LK PCPN MAY BEGIN TO DIMINISH
TOWARD 12Z SAT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF HGT RISES/MID LVL DRYING/LOWERING
SUBSIDENCE INVRN UNDER THE DNVA IN THE WAKE OF THE UPR TROF SHIFTING
INTO THE ERN LKS. ONE OTHER CONCERN WL BE THE HI WAVES WHIPPED UP ON
LK SUP BY THE STRENGTHENING WINDS ON FRI NGT. SINCE THE LK SUP WATER
LVL HAS RISEN UP TO HALF A FOOT ABV NORMAL...THERE MAY BE SOME BEACH
FLOODING AT THE MORE EXPOSED LOCATIONS.
SAT...THE APRCH OF A SHRTWV RDG AND ACCOMPANYING SFC HI PRES WL
BRING DIMINISHING WINDS AND VIGOROUS MID LVL DRYING THAT WL CAUSE LK
EFFECT PCPN ON SAT MRNG TO END IN THE AFTN IN THE PRESENCE OF
DIURNAL HEATING EVEN IF A GOOD DEAL OF SC LINGERS WITHIN THE LLVL
THERMAL TROF THAT IS PROGGED TO HOLD IN PLACE UNDER SUBSIDENCE INVRN
NEAR H875 WITHIN THE NLY FLOW E OF THE APRCHG RDG AXIS. SOME CLRG IS
LIKELY TO ARRIVE OVER THE W BY LATE IN THE AFTN WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
THE SFC RDG AXIS.
SAT NGT...WITH RDG AXIS PASSING OVHD AND PWAT FCST AS LO AS 0.25
INCH SUPPORTING THE CLRG OF ANY LINGERING LO CLDS...EXPECT TEMPS TO
FALL WELL INTO THE 20S OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF EVEN IF SOME HI CLDS
ARRIVE LATE IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SHRTWV DIGGING SEWD THRU SCENTRAL
CANADA. SINCE LO CLDS WL LINGER LONGER OVER THE E...TEMPS THERE WL
NOT FALL AS FAR.
SUN INTO MON...NEXT SHRTWV DROPPING SEWD AND INTO THE UPR LKS/UPR
MIDWEST BY 12Z MON WL BRING INCRSG CLDS ON SUN AND THE NEXT CHC OF
SHOWERS SUN AFTN INTO MON MRNG. ONCE AGAIN...MSTR INFLOW INTO THIS
DISTURBANCE WL BE LIMITED...BUT FAIRLY VIGOROUS DPVA/QVECTOR CNVGC
WILL BRING AT LEAST SCT SHOWERS BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF HGT RISES/DNVA
IN THE WAKE OF THE SHRTWV SLIPPING TO THE SE DIMINISH THE PCPN
THREAT LATER ON MON. ALL THE PCPN ACCOMPANYING THIS DISTURBANCE WL
BE IN THE FORM OF RA
EXTENDED...ALTHOUGH SOME CLDS AND EVEN A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER ON
MON NGT UNDER LLVL CYC FLOW/LLVL THERMAL TROF LEFT IN THE WAKE OF
THE DEPARTING SHRTWV/SFC LO...BLDG UPR RDG OVER CENTRAL NAMERICA AND
SFC HI PRES IN THE GREAT LKS WL BRING DRY WX TO UPR MI.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 147 PM EDT THU OCT 16 2014
AT KIWD AND KCMX...VFR CONDITIONS INTO TONIGHT...THEN AS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA BEGINS TO CROSS THE AREA
AND WINDS TURN NORTHERLY...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO RAPIDLY DETERIORATE
TO IFR OR EVEN LOWER IN RAIN AND FOG.
AT KSAW...WITH WEAK WINDS INTO TONIGHT AND LACK OF DRY AIR
ADVECTION...LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT KSAW. VSBY SHOULD
FALL BACK TO IFR LATER TONIGHT WITH NIGHTTIME COOLING LEADING TO
MORE SATURATION. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH ON FRIDAY WILL
SWITCH WINDS TO NORTHERLY MID-LATE MORNING WHICH WILL RESULT IN
CONTINUATION OF LOW CLOUDS...AT LEAST AS LOW AS IFR. VSBY MAY
IMPROVE FOR A TIME THOUGH...BEFORE STEADIER RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS
DEVELOP ON FRIDAY AFTN.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 434 AM EDT THU OCT 16 2014
EXPECT LIGHT WINDS INTO EARLY FRI UNDER A RELATIVELY WEAK PRES
GRADIENT. BUT THEN AS A PAIR OF UPPER DISTURBANCES COMBINE ON FRI...
A DEEP LO PRES WILL DEVELOP IN SE CANADA AND BRING INCREASING NNW
WINDS THAT INCREASE TO GALE FORCE/UP TO 40 KTS ON FRI AFTERNOON AND
FRI NIGHT THAT IMPACT ALMOST ALL OF LAKE SUPERIOR INTO NORTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN. ISSUED GALE WATCHES FOR ALL BUT FAR WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR...WHERE THE WINDS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG. AS A HI PRES
RIDGE APPROACHES FROM THE W ON SAT...THE STRONG WINDS WILL DIMINISH
W-E. ALTHOUGH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE/SURFACE LO PRES WILL TRACK ACROSS
THE UPPER LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK...NO STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
LSZ248>251-267.
GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
LSZ266.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT /4 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LSZ162-241>244-263-264.
GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
LSZ263>265.
GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
LSZ244-245.
GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
LSZ242-243.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
LMZ248-250.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JLA
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
255 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2014
TEMPERATURES WILL PROVIDE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES INTO THE MID
PART OF NEXT WEEK. THERE IS SOME CHANCE OF PCPN BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY.
AN IMPRESSIVE 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS NOTED OVER THE DAKOTAS
WITH 12 HR HEIGHT FALLS OF ABOUT 150 METERS OVER WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA THIS MORNING. LATEST RUC INITIALIZATION IN COMBINATION WITH
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED THE CENTER OF THE CIRCULATION WAS OVER
NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME LIGHTNING STRIKES
WERE NOTED JUST AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE.
850 MB CHART FROM 12Z THIS MORNING SHOWED A THERMAL RIDGE FROM WEST
TEXAS UP INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. THIS HAS ALREADY BEEN SHIFTING
SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA AS OF MID AFTERNOON. FAIRLY DEEP
MIXING ALONG/BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA HELPED
PUSH TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE 70S...BUT COOLING WAS ALREADY TAKING
PLACE IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. MODEST LOW LEVEL GRADIENT TONIGHT MAY
HELP KEEP WINDS UP...SO RAISED THEM A BIT COMPARED TO LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE. THE AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS CURRENTLY OFF TO OUR
NORTH MAY MOVE INTO OUR NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES LATER
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING (MOSTLY NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM ALBION
TO FREMONT AND RED OAK).
OTHERWISE...WE LOOK FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES (COMPARED TO TODAY) FOR
BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS BUILDS INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT SO KEPT LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER AND MID 30S (AT OR
BELOW MOS GUIDANCE). SURFACE WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
AND INCREASE LATER SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING...THEN ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA SHIFTING WINDS TO THE
NORTH OR NORTHWEST. GOOD MIXING WITH THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH HIGHS
INTO THE 60S MOST AREAS WITH SOME HIGHS AROUND 70 WESTERN ZONES.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2014
THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY AT THE BEGINNING BUT MAY TURN
WET BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY.
LATEST MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE
PATTERN AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...WITH A 500 MB RIDGE FROM
WYOMING UP INTO ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN. A CLOSED LOW WILL BE
NEAR THE ARIZONA/CALIFORNIA/MEXICO BORDER REGION AND A TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM ALASKA DOWN TO NEAR 30 N 135 W. SOME
ENERGY WILL MOVE EAST OUT OF THAT TROUGH IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC
AND BE OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION BY WEDNESDAY. THIS
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL PROVIDE OUT NEXT GOOD CHANCE FOR PCPN. ALTHOUGH
THE MODELS ARE NOT IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT BY THAT TIME (GFS IS WET
FOR OUR AREA WHILE THE ECMWF HOLDS THE PCPN MAINLY TO OUR WEST)...
THE GENERAL PATTERN SUGGESTS LOW CHANCE CATEGORY POPS ARE NEEDED
FOR NOW. HIGHS FROM MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY 60S
TO LOWER 790S WITH LOWS IN THE 40S OR UPPER 30S.
&&
.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2014
LATEST SFC OBS REVEALING A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM ERN SD TO WRN
KS WAS BEGINNING TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO ERN NEB. KOFK WINDS HAVE
ALREADY SHIFTED TO THE NW...AND SAME EXPECTED AT KOMA/KLNK WITHIN
THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. TIGHT SFC PRES GRADIENT OVER THE REGION
WILL KEEP WINDS GUSTY THE REST OF THIS AFTN. EXPECT NW WIND GUST
TO RAMP UP AGAIN EARLY FRI MORNING WHEN PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP
AGAIN.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...DEE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
310 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2014
SHOWER CHANCES AND WIND POTENTIAL THIS EVENING/TONIGHT WILL BE
THE MAIN CHALLENGES. 12Z MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT.
A SECONDARY PUSH OF COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
FROM CANADA THIS EVENING...WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW TO 925MB
(WITH 925MB WIND SPEEDS @40-45 KNOTS)...AND MIXING UP TO
850MB...ALONG WITH A SFC PRESSURE RISE 4-5MB/3-HR (ACROSS NE ND
AND NW MN). THIS WILL MOSTLY OCCUR AFTER SUNSET AND WITH CLOUD
COVER...SO MIXING POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED. THE MOST LIKELY
SCENARIO WILL BE BRIEF WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS WITH THE INITIAL
PUSH OF COLD AIR ADVECTION...WITH NEAR ADVISORY CONDITIONS A
MAJORITY OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOPWRF INDICATES A LOW
PROBABILITY (30%) FOR ADVISORY WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
VALLEY...WHICH WOULD TEND TO AGREE WITH THE EXPECTED SCENARIO.
A BAND OF PERSISTENT SHOWERS JUST NORTH OF THE UPPER LOW HAS
PRODUCED 0.20-0.40 INCHES OF RAINFALL ACROSS A PORTION OF THE
DEVILS LAKE BASIN. LATEST HRRR INDICATES THIS BAND WILL SLOWLY
PIVOT SOUTH/SOUTHEAST...AND DISSIPATE. RADAR INDICATES THAT THIS
IS BEGINNING TO OCCUR...AND WILL ADJUST POPS/WX TOWARD THIS
SOLUTION. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT...SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT NOT SURE WHEN AND WHERE (HRRR/RAP
INDICATES MORE ISOLATED/SCATTERED COVERAGE). IF A PERSISTENT BAND
OF SHOWERS AGAIN DEVELOPS...WILL ADJUST POPS UPWARD.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
COLDER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED...WITH BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2014
SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SHORTWAVE WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS CANADA ON
SATURDAY AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY. BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS ON SATURDAY...WITH A WIND SHIFT AND BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURE SHOULD BE WARMER EACH DAY
(STRONGEST COLD AIR ADVECTION NOT EXPECTED UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT).
THE AIRMASS WILL BE RELATIVELY DRY...AND WITH THE STRONGEST
FORCING TO THE NORTH SHOWER CHANCES ARE EXTREMELY LIMITED.
SUNDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...SYNOPTIC MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT
AGREEMENT THIS PERIOD. DEPARTING UPPER WAVE...BUILDING HEIGHTS AND
SURFACE HIGH BUILDING IN SPELL DECREASING WINDS. SURFACE HIGH
TRANSITS CWFA...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MINIMAL MIXING TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY. RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS
OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY LEADING TO BREEZY SOUTH WINDS. BLOCKING LOW
OVER EASTERN U.S. AND SPLIT FLOW LEAD TO SLOW MOVING UPPER AND
SURFACE PATTERN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS BOTH
DAYS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO AND ACROSS THE CWFA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WITH GFS/ECMWF TIMING SIMILAR. LEFT BLEND POPS
ALONE DUE TO THE INHERENT UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT IN TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2014
WIND SHIFT ALONG THE RED RIVER AT 1730Z FCST TO CONT MOVING EAST
AT 20 KTS PASSING KTVF 19Z AND KBJI 22Z. GUSTS 30KTS PSL WITHIN
1-2 HOURS FROPA...THEN WINDS DIMINISH. EXP SPEEDS TO INCREASE WITH
GUSTS GTR 30KTS AFT 00Z. VCSH DVL-GFK THROUGH 00Z AND KTVF AFT 21Z
VFR CIGS FCST EXCEPT BCMG MVFR DVL AREA AFT 00Z.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...EWENS/TG
AVIATION...EWENS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
422 PM EDT THU OCT 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ACCOMPANIED BY A SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EVE
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH EARLY FRIDAY. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL THEN SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A SHARP COOLING TREND FOR THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE LOWER GR LAKES WILL LIFT THROUGH THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. COOL AIR ALOFT AND MODEST AFTERNOON HEATING WILL
PROVIDE SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY...SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
LATEST HRRR SUPPORTS THE FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THE SHOWERS OVER
MY SWRN ZONES...SPREADING NE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE
FADING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING. BRIEF DOWNPOURS MAY
DROP A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN IN A FEW SPOTS...BUT MOST
LOCATIONS THAT SEE RAIN WILL HAVE AMOUNTS OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS ON
AVERAGE.
THE OVERNIGHT WILL FEATURE BREEZY WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW. SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY FAVORING
WESTERN AND NORTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN.
LOWS IN THE 40S WILL AVERAGE 5-10 DEG ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
DEEP LAYER FLOW GRADUALLY BACKS TO THE SW FRIDAY AS A FLAT RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES EAST ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAD
TO ANOTHER PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY...WITH MOST CLOUDS AND A
FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGHER COUNTRY. CENTRAL
AND EASTERN AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY.
FRIDAY`S HIGHS IN THE 60S WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CLOSED LOW ALOFT CURRENTLY NEAR THE THUMB OF LOWER MI WILL LIFT
INTO SOUTHEAST ONTARIO ON FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...A COMPACT SHORTWAVE
WILL TRANSLATE QUICKLY ESEWD THROUGH THE DAKOTAS/MN AND AMPLIFY
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRI-SAT...MERGING WITH THE PREVIOUS CLOSED
LOW AND ULTIMATELY HELPING TO REINFORCE A LARGER SCALE TROUGH OVER
THE NORTHEAST SECTOR OF THE CONUS. THE MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE DIGGING RATHER SHARPLY EWD THROUGH THE OH VLY INTO THE
MID-ATLC STATES LATER SAT-SUN. THIS ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO GO NEG
TILT AS IT REACHES NEW ENGLAND ON SUN. YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS FCST TO DIG INTO THE UPPER MS VLY ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL
LKLY INFLUENCE THE PATTERN OVER THE NE CONUS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK...AS MODEL AND ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS SHOWS DOWNSTREAM
TROUGH AMPLIFICATION AND A POSSIBLE CUT-OFF LOW FORMING OVER THE
MID ATLC REGION.
FOR SENSIBLE WX HIGHLIGHTS...GUSTY/COLDER NW FLOW IN THE WAKE OF
FROPA EARLY SATURDAY SHOULD SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT/UPSLOPE RAIN
SHOWERS /POSSIBLY MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS SAT NGT/
OVER THE WESTERN HIGHLANDS AND DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE. POPS WERE
ELEVATED OVER THESE AREAS GIVEN FAVORABLE PATTERN AND STRONG MODEL
AGREEMENT. HP SPELLS A BRIEF RESPITE IN PCPN ACTIVITY FROM LATER
SUN INTO EARLY MONDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS SUPPORTS SFC WAVE OVER THE
GREAT LAKES BY 12Z MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A TRANSFER OF ENERGY OFF THE
EAST COAST AROUND 00Z WED. AT THIS POINT THERE IS AT LEAST AVG
CONFIDENCE IN A CLOSED LOW ALOFT OVER THE MID ATLC STATES AND
ASSOCD SFC LOW PRES NEAR/OFFSHORE THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. WHILE
THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING THE PCPN PATTERN DURING
THE LATER PERIODS...FELT THAT IT WAS PRUDENT TO RAISE POPS IN THE
OUTER PERIODS ESPECIALLY OVER THE ERN PRTNS OF THE CWA AS THE
PATTERN IS LOOKING RATHER UNSETTLED. TEMPS WILL AVG ON THE CHILLY
SIDE OF CLIMO.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SWING THRU THE AREA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH LOCAL RESTRICTIONS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE PRECIPITATION. BEST CHANCE FOR REDUCED CEILINGS/VIZ WILL
BE OVER THE WESTERN 1/2 OF THE FORECAST AREA...HIGHER TERRAIN
TERMINALS.
SHOWERS/THUNDER WILL TEND TO DWINDLE THIS EVENING AS WE LOSE
HEATING. MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO LINGER OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN
TERMINALS FROM JST NORTH THROUGH BFD...WHILE CEILINGS IN THE
3000-5000` RANGE WILL BE MORE LIKELY OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN
AREAS.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE N/W...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR. GUSTY SFC
WINDS 15-25KT FROM 240-270.
SAT...MVFR CIGS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY N/W. SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS WEST SAT NIGHT. GUSTY SFC WINDS
15-25KT FROM 270-300.
SUN...MVFR EARLY BECOMING VFR. DECREASING WINDS.
MON...NO SIG WX.
TUE...MVFR/SHOWERS AS A SLOW MOVING SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE GR
LAKES.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
237 PM EDT THU OCT 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ACCOMPANIED BY A SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EVE
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH EARLY FRIDAY. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL THEN SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A SHARP COOLING TREND FOR THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE LOWER GR LAKES WILL LIFT THROUGH THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. COOL AIR ALOFT AND MODEST AFTERNOON HEATING WILL
PROVIDE SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY...SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
LATEST HRRR SUPPORTS THE FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THE SHOWERS OVER
MY SWRN ZONES...SPREADING NE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE
FADING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING. BRIEF DOWNPOURS MAY
DROP A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN IN A FEW SPOTS...BUT MOST
LOCATIONS THAT SEE RAIN WILL HAVE AMOUNTS OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS ON
AVERAGE.
THE OVERNIGHT WILL FEATURE BREEZY WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW. SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY FAVORING
WESTERN AND NORTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN.
LOWS IN THE 40S WILL AVERAGE 5-10 DEG ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
DEEP LAYER FLOW GRADUALLY BACKS TO THE SW FRIDAY AS A FLAT RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES EAST ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAD
TO ANOTHER PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY...WITH MOST CLOUDS AND A
FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGHER COUNTRY. CENTRAL
AND EASTERN AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY.
FRIDAY`S HIGHS IN THE 60S WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD IS DOMINATED BY BROAD TROF BRINGING MUCH COOLER
AND GENERALLY CLOUDY WEATHER TO THE AREA. A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES
WILL BRING LOW CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION...BUT MOST OF THE TIME
WILL BE PERCEPTION FREE. SECONDARY SHOT OF COLDER AIR ARRIVES LATE
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. COOLEST DAY IN THE PERIOD WILL BE ON SUNDAY
WITH MANY LOCATIONS WILL STRUGGLE TO LEAVE THE 40S FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SWING THRU THE AREA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH LOCAL RESTRICTIONS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE PRECIPITATION. BEST CHANCE FOR REDUCED CEILINGS/VIZ WILL
BE OVER THE WESTERN 1/2 OF THE FORECAST AREA...HIGHER TERRAIN
TERMINALS.
SHOWERS/THUNDER WILL TEND TO DWINDLE THIS EVENING AS WE LOSE
HEATING. MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO LINGER OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN
TERMINALS FROM JST NORTH THROUGH BFD...WHILE CEILINGS IN THE
3000-5000` RANGE WILL BE MORE LIKELY OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN
AREAS.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE N/W...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR. GUSTY SFC
WINDS 15-25KT FROM 240-270.
SAT...MVFR CIGS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY N/W. SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS WEST SAT NIGHT. GUSTY SFC WINDS
15-25KT FROM 270-300.
SUN...MVFR EARLY BECOMING VFR. DECREASING WINDS.
MON...NO SIG WX.
TUE...MVFR/SHOWERS AS A SLOW MOVING SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE GR
LAKES.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...ROSS/LAMBERT
AVIATION...LA CORTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
707 PM EDT THU OCT 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA TONIGHT ALLOWING WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN ON FRIDAY.
ANOTHER FAST MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATER FRIDAY BEFORE
SLIDING THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FOLLOW THE FRONT ON SATURDAY RESULTING IN COOLER AND DRIER
WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 610 PM EDT THURSDAY...
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES WITH LATEST OBC AND MODELS TRENDS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. MODIFIED CLOUD COVER ALLOWING FOR MORE
SUNSHINE. ADJUSTED POPS TOWARDS THE HRRR WITH DECREASING CHANCES
OF INSTABILITY SHOWERS GOING INTO TONIGHT. MORE CHANGES LATER
TONIGHT.
AS OF 300 PM EDT THURSDAY...
INSTABILITY SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND
WANE FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. THE RESPONSIBLE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS WILL HEAD EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. BEHIND IT...NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO ROUGHLY 25-30KTS AT 850 MB. DECOUPLING OF
SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND WITHIN MOST OF
THE MOUNTAINS VALLEYS. HOWEVER...THE INCREASE AND LOWERING OF
THESE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WILL HELP MAINTAIN A BREEZE TONIGHT AT
THE RIDGE TOPS ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME GUSTS AROUND 25
MPH BETWEEN ROUGHLY MIDNIGHT AND 6AM. THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL HELP
MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS WILL YIELD NO OR VERY LIMITED CLOUD COVER
EAST OF THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID TO UPPER 40S
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
ON FRIDAY...LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL CAUSE THE
WEST TO LOSE ITS UPSLOPE COMPONENT...AND MOST AREAS BY MIDDAY WILL
BE MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY ACROSS THE REGION. SURFACE WINDS WILL
START THE DAY LIGHT AND VARIABLE...OR LIGHT FROM THE SOUTHWEST
THEN INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO THE
LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT THURSDAY...
CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER ONTARIO CANADA WILL DUMBBELL SOUTHWEST ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND AS A SHORT WAVE
MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THEN PHASES WITH
THE GREAT LAKES TROUGH. THIS WILL SEND A CLIPPER LIKE SURFACE
FRONT THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY WITH A BRIEF SHOT OF
COOL AIR FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO BE MOISTURE STARVED...SO LITTLE IN THE WAY OF QPF ANTICIPATED.
THE MOUNTAINS MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT PASSES OVER THE
MOUNTAINS SHOULD DRY UP IN THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE THAT DEVELOPS IN
THE WAKE OF THE FROPA.
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY...AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD REMAIN
MILD...ALTHOUGH INCREASING CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM MAY
INHIBIT HEATING WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND ESPECIALLY EASTERN
WV AND FAR SW VA. AFTER FROPA...SURGE OF COOLER AIR IS FORCED INTO
THE REGION UNDER BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS. 850 MB TEMPS TAKE A PLUNGE
TO ZERO CELCIUS BY MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT...BEFORE RECOVERING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ANY LINGERING MOISTURE SATURDAY NIGHT MAY MIX
WITH A FEW SNOWFLAKES IN THE MTNS OF WV...MAINLY ABOVE 3000 FEET
IN ELEVATION. GROUND TEMPERATURES ARE STILL WELL ABOVE FREEZING SO
NO ACCUMULATION. TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE FOR SUNDAY WILL BE
CONSIDERABLY COOLER THAN SATURDAY...STRUGGLING TO REACH 50 IN THE
MTNS AND 60 EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THE BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
DIMINISH QUICKLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES
CENTERED OVER THE REGION.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT THURSDAY...
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN SUPPORTS ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM FOR MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...SHORT WAVE COMING FROM THE NORTHWEST AND
SENDING ANOTHER FRONT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. ATTM MODELS INDICATE
LITTLE SUPPORT FOR PRECIP...EXCEPT FOR THE MOUNTAINS. THERE ARE
SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS WHICH SUGGEST THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
TRIGGER THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL STORM AS THE ENERGY PASSES
OFF THE DELMARVA. EVEN THOUGH THIS DOES NOT PRECIPITATE INTO MUCH
OF A QPF PRODUCER FOR OUR REGION...THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE COULD
RESULT IN A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER FOR MID WEEK THAN WHAT WE HAVE
BEEN FORECASTING. FOR NOW...WILL TREND CLOUD COVER UP FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AND LOWER TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 650 PM EDT THURSDAY...
LOW CLOUDS INCLUDING MVFR CIGS LIKELY TO PREVAIL OVER THE SE WEST
VIRGINIA LOCATIONS THIS EVENING...WITH A MIX OF VFR TO MVFR EAST
TO THE BLUE RIDGE...AND MAINLY VFR UNDER SCATTERED/BKN CLOUDS OUT
EAST. COULD STILL SEE A FEW ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS EARLY THIS
EVENING BEFORE COVERAGE TOTALLY FADES WITH LOSS OF HEATING. THUS ONLY
INCLUDING A MENTION AT PERHAPS KBLF WHERE SOMEWHAT DEEPER MOISTURE
RESIDES.
OVERNIGHT...AN INCREASED NORTHWEST JET ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
TROUGH SHOULD HELP MAINTAIN OR INCREASE IN COVERAGE THE AMOUNT OF
UPSLOPE MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR FOR MAINLY SPEED DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND ABOUT
2000 FT AGL IS EXPECTED BETWEEN ROUGHLY 04Z/MIDNIGHT AND 12Z/8AM
WHEN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS AND WEAKENS...AND SURFACE WINDS
START TO INCREASE. LIMITED MVFR/IFR VALLEY FOG IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP TONIGHT PENDING DEGREE OF RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER. MOST WILL
BE IN THE PREFERRED RIVER VALLEYS.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...AND ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION ONCE WESTERN MVFR CIGS SCATTER OUT AROUND
14-15Z/10-11AM.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...TWO FAST MOVING CLIPPER
SYSTEMS WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND BRING
THEIR ASSOCIATED FRONTS THROUGH OUR REGION. WHILE EASTERN PARTS
OF THE AREA ARE EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS...THE
PREFERRED UPSLOPE REGIONS IN THE WEST MAY SEE A COUPLE ROUNDS OF
MVFR CIGS AND SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS
WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AND THEN AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY WHEN IT MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR THE FIRST SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS OF THE SEASON. EACH OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL ALSO HELP
TO RAMP UP SURFACE WINDS WITH GUSTS APPROACH 30 KTS AT THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...DS/KK
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...DS/JH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
612 PM EDT THU OCT 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO
WITH A COLD FRONT ACRING SOUTHEAST THROUGH NEW ENGLAND AND
EXTENDING WELL OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDED FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SOUTH INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 610 PM EDT THURSDAY...
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES WITH LATEST OBC AND MODELS TRENDS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. MODIFIED CLOUD COVER ALLOWING FOR MORE
SUNSHINE. ADJUSTED POPS TOWARDS THE HRRR WITH DECREASING CHANCES
OF INSTABILITY SHOWERS GOING INTO TONIGHT. MORE CHANGES LATER
TONIGHT.
AS OF 300 PM EDT THURSDAY...
INSTABILITY SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND
WANE FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. THE RESPONSIBLE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS WILL HEAD EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. BEHIND IT...NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO ROUGHLY 25-30KTS AT 850 MB. DECOUPLING OF
SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND WITHIN MOST OF
THE MOUNTAINS VALLEYS. HOWEVER...THE INCREASE AND LOWERING OF
THESE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WILL HELP MAINTAIN A BREEZE TONIGHT AT
THE RIDGE TOPS ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME GUSTS AROUND 25
MPH BETWEEN ROUGHLY MIDNIGHT AND 6AM. THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL HELP
MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS WILL YIELD NO OR VERY LIMITED CLOUD COVER
EAST OF THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID TO UPPER 40S
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
ON FRIDAY...LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL CAUSE THE
WEST TO LOSE ITS UPSLOPE COMPONENT...AND MOST AREAS BY MIDDAY WILL
BE MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY ACROSS THE REGION. SURFACE WINDS WILL
START THE DAY LIGHT AND VARIABLE...OR LIGHT FROM THE SOUTHWEST
THEN INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO THE
LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT THURSDAY...
CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER ONTARIO CANADA WILL DUMBBELL SOUTHWEST ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND AS A SHORT WAVE
MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THEN PHASES WITH
THE GREAT LAKES TROUGH. THIS WILL SEND A CLIPPER LIKE SURFACE
FRONT THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY WITH A BRIEF SHOT OF
COOL AIR FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO BE MOISTURE STARVED...SO LITTLE IN THE WAY OF QPF ANTICIPATED.
THE MOUNTAINS MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT PASSES OVER THE
MOUNTAINS SHOULD DRY UP IN THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE THAT DEVELOPS IN
THE WAKE OF THE FROPA.
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY...AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD REMAIN
MILD...ALTHOUGH INCREASING CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM MAY
INHIBIT HEATING WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND ESPECIALLY EASTERN
WV AND FAR SW VA. AFTER FROPA...SURGE OF COOLER AIR IS FORCED INTO
THE REGION UNDER BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS. 850 MB TEMPS TAKE A PLUNGE
TO ZERO CELCIUS BY MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT...BEFORE RECOVERING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ANY LINGERING MOISTURE SATURDAY NIGHT MAY MIX
WITH A FEW SNOWFLAKES IN THE MTNS OF WV...MAINLY ABOVE 3000 FEET
IN ELEVATION. GROUND TEMPERATURES ARE STILL WELL ABOVE FREEZING SO
NO ACCUMULATION. TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE FOR SUNDAY WILL BE
CONSIDERABLY COOLER THAN SATURDAY...STRUGGLING TO REACH 50 IN THE
MTNS AND 60 EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THE BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
DIMINISH QUICKLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES
CENTERED OVER THE REGION.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT THURSDAY...
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN SUPPORTS ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM FOR MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...SHORT WAVE COMING FROM THE NORTHWEST AND
SENDING ANOTHER FRONT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. ATTM MODELS INDICATE
LITTLE SUPPORT FOR PRECIP...EXCEPT FOR THE MOUNTAINS. THERE ARE
SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS WHICH SUGGEST THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
TRIGGER THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL STORM AS THE ENERGY PASSES
OFF THE DELMARVA. EVEN THOUGH THIS DOES NOT PRECIPITATE INTO MUCH
OF A QPF PRODUCER FOR OUR REGION...THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE COULD
RESULT IN A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER FOR MID WEEK THAN WHAT WE HAVE
BEEN FORECASTING. FOR NOW...WILL TREND CLOUD COVER UP FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AND LOWER TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT THURSDAY...
PRIMARILY MVFR CIGS AND VRF VSBYS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED INSTABILITY
SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS IN CONJUNCTION WITH
DAYTIME HEATING AND STEEP LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THIS AFTERNOON AND WANE AS THE SUN BEGINS TO SET. LITTLE ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO THE PIEDMONT AS WESTERLY
FLOW SHOULD HELP LIMIT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION.
OVERNIGHT...AN INCREASED NORTHWEST JET ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
TROUGH SHOULD HELP MAINTAIN OR INCREASE IN COVERAGE THE AMOUNT OF
UPSLOPE MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR FOR MAINLY SPEED DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND ABOUT
2000 FT AGL IS EXPECTED BETWEEN ROUGHLY 04Z/MIDNIGHT AND 12Z/8AM
WHEN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS AND WEAKENS...AND SURFACE WINDS
START TO INCREASE. LIMITED MVFR/IFR VALLEY FOG IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP TONIGHT. MOST WILL BE IN THE PREFERRED RIVER VALLEYS.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...AND ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION ONCE WESTERN MVFR CIGS SCATTER AROUND
14-15Z/10-11AM.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...TWO FAST MOVING CLIPPER
SYSTEMS WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND BRING
THEIR ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXES INTO AND TROUGH OUR REGION. WHILE
EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA ARE EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN VFR
CONDITIONS...THE PREFERRED UPSLOPE REGIONS IN THE WEST MAY SEE A
COUPLE ROUNDS OF MVFR CIGS AND SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THIS WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AND THEN
AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WHEN IT MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR THE
FIRST SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OF THE SEASON. EACH OF THESE SYSTEMS
WILL ALSO HELP TO RAMP UP SURFACE WINDS WITH GUSTS APPROACH 30 KTS
AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/PM
NEAR TERM...DS/KK
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...DS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
144 PM EDT THU OCT 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS OVER LAKE ERIE WITH A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES ON
SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1240 PM EDT THURSDAY...
THE AREA OF LIGHT RAIN THAT MOVED INTO WESTERN PARTS OF THE
REGION HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE PAST HOUR. ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON THANKS TO SURFACE HEATING AND STEEP LAPSE
RATES ALOFT. THE FOCUS FOR THE BEST COVERAGE STILL IS EXPECTED TO
BE ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA. HAVE MADE SMALL ADJUSTMENTS
UPWARD IN MOST LOCATIONS FOR HIGHER MAX TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY
BASED UPON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND EXPECTED TRENDS IN AREAS
THAT WILL EXPERIENCE SOME SUNSHINE TODAY.
AS OF 940 AM EDT THURSDAY...
REGIONAL RADARS ARE DEPICTING A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS MOVING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH KY/WV. THE LEADING EDGE IS JUST STARTING TO
REACH THE FAR WESTERN PARTS OF OUR REGION BETWEEN ROUGHLY TAZEWELL
AND RICHLANDS VA. PREVAILING FLOW AROUND THE UPPER LOW JUST
ADVECT THIS ACTIVITY INTO MAINLY THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. HAVE INCREASED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY ACROSS A GREATER
SWATH OF THE REGION THAN PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED...SPECIFICALLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA. HAVE ALSO
EXTENDED THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FARTHER EAST THIS MORNING
BASED UPON SOME LIGHT RETURNS ON KFCX RADAR IN THIS REGION AND
BOTH HRRR AND RNK WRK ARW MODEL PROJECTIONS THE NEXT FEW HOURS. NO
OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
AS OF 430 AM EDT THURSDAY...
DEEP UPPER LOW OVER OHIO DRIFTS NORTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. TROF
AXIS WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE TONIGHT. UNTIL
THEN...THREE SHORT WAVES CROSS THE AREA. MODELS HAVE ONE OF THESE
WAVES CROSSING THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST
AREAS WILL STILL BE UNDER THE COLD CORE OF THE UPPER LOW. WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS. 850
MB WINDS FROM THE WEST AT 30-35 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. SHUD BE ENOUGH
MIXING FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.
WATER VAPOR LOOP AND MODELS HAD EXTENSIVE AREA OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE
WITH THE UPPER LOW. THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TODAY
AND BY THIS EVENING...MOISTURE WILL BE CONFINED TO LOW LEVELS IN THE
WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA.
BY 00Z/8PM...SURFACE THROUGH 850 MB WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST. THEN
SURFACE RIDGING FROM HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF COAST WILL BACK
WINDS. THIS WILL END THE MUCH OF THE UPSLOPE...EVEN IN THE FAR
WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA. HAVE TRIMMED BACK CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION AFTER MIDNIGHT.
STATED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY. EXPECTING ENOUGH CLEARING
IN ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHWEST TONIGHT FOR SOME DECENT RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS. WENT LOWER THAN GUIDANCE FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT THURSDAY...
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL
FINALLY BE LIFTING OUT OF THE REGION...BUT THE PARENT UPPER
LOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL ALLOW THE
UPPER LOW TO DUMBBELL BACK AROUND INTO THE REGION AS A SHORT WAVE
MOVES SOUTHEAST OUT OF ALBERTA AND ANOTHER SHORT WAVE...TRACKING
OVER AN UPPER RIDGE IN THE WESTERN STATES...PHASES WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE. THIS WILL SEND AN ALBERTA CLIPPER LIKE
SYSTEM INTO THE REGION FOR SAT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. FRI
HOWEVER...SHOULD BE ONE OF THE BEST DAYS IN THE LAST WEEK OR SO WITH
CONSIDERABLE AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE AND MILD TEMPS WITH WEST SFC FLOW
AND NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
STRONG DYNAMICS ARE INDICATED WITH THE APPROACHING SHORT WAVE
WITH STRONG PVA SAT/SAT EVENING...BUT MOISTURE IS LIMITED. SFC FLOW
IS WEST AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...WHICH WILL FURTHER LIMIT MOISTURE
ADVECTION INTO THE REGION...AND PRODUCE DOWNSLOPING/DRYING EAST OF
THE ALLEGHANY FRONT. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT -SHRA WILL MOST
DEFINITELY DEVELOP WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT LATE
SATURDAY/SATURDAY EVENING...WITH PERHAPS A FEW SPRINKLES REACHING
THE BLUE RIDGE AS THE UPPER SHORT WAVE TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT
TOWARD 06Z SUN AND ROTATES THROUGH THE REGION. FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT
POPS IN THE CHC RANGE...BUT COULD SEE SOME LOW LIKELYS FROM WESTERN
GREENBRIER INTO NW SUMMERS SAT EVENING. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL
BE MILDER WITH WEST FLOW...BUT CONSIDERABLE MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER
WILL INHIBIT HEATING WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND ESPECIALLY EASTERN
WV/SW VA.
AS WE MOVE INTO SAT NIGHT AND THE SHORT WAVE TAKES ON A NEGATIVE
TILT AND ROTATES THROUGH THE PARENT TROUGH...A NEAR WINTERLIKE
PATTERN IS EVIDENT...AT LEAST FOR ABOUT 6 HOURS INTO SUN MORNING.
DECENT 15-20KT UPSLOPE COMPONENT INDICATED AND 850MB TEMPS DROP INTO
THE -2C RANGE WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT TOWARD 12Z SUN. DO FEEL
THAT THE UPSLOPE COMPONENT IS SUFFICIENT ENOUGH WITH THE INDICATED
850MB TEMPS AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...MAINLY ABOVE 3500 FT...TO
SUPPORT OUR FIRST -SHSN OF THE SEASON. THIS WOULD MAINLY AFFECT
WESTERN GREENBRIER NORTHWARD...POSSIBLY EXTREME NW SUMMERS. SFC
TEMPS WILL LIKELY REMAIN AOA FREEZING EXCEPT AT THE VERY HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS...SO NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED AT ALL. ANY -SHSN SHOULD BE
ENDING QUICKLY AFT 12Z SUN AS THE UPSLOPE COMPONENT BECOMES LESS
FAVORABLE AND THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT. TEMPERATURES SUN WILL BE
COOLER...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE 50S WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND A FEW 40S IN WESTERN GREENBRIER
WHERE UPSLOPE CLOUDS COULD LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH FAIRLY QUICKLY...HOWEVER...AS THE DAY PROGRESSES WITH THE
UPPER FLOW QUICKLY RESPONDING TO THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT THURSDAY...
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH A SERIES OF NW FLOW SHORT
WAVES CONTINUING TO BE THE MAIN WEATHER MAKER FOR THE REGION. THE
MAIN CONCERN OF SIGNIFICANCE WILL BE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...WHEN SOME FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE EARLY SUN. HOWEVER...THE WIND MAY BE TOO
STRONG YET TO ALLOW FOR ANY WIDESPREAD FREEZE...WHICH HAS YET TO
OCCUR SO FAR THIS FALL. THIS WOULD BE THE LAST CHANCE FOR A FREEZE
FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH IS RAPIDLY
APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE MONDAY...WHICH
APPEARS SIMILAR TO THE SAT SYSTEM...ALBEIT LESS DYNAMIC AND OVERALL
FURTHER NORTH. THIS SHOULD BE FOLLOWED BY SEVERAL DAYS OF QUIET
WEATHER ONCE AGAIN WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR FREEZE/FROST COMING
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM EARLY THU.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT THURSDAY...
PRIMARILY MVFR CIGS AND VRF VSBYS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED INSTABILITY
SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS IN CONJUNCTION WITH
DAYTIME HEATING AND STEEP LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THIS AFTERNOON AND WANE AS THE SUN BEGINS TO SET. LITTLE ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO THE PIEDMONT AS WESTERLY
FLOW SHOULD HELP LIMIT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION.
OVERNIGHT...AN INCREASED NORTHWEST JET ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
TROUGH SHOULD HELP MAINTAIN OR INCREASE IN COVERAGE THE AMOUNT OF
UPSLOPE MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR FOR MAINLY SPEED DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND ABOUT
2000 FT AGL IS EXPECTED BETWEEN ROUGHLY 04Z/MIDNIGHT AND 12Z/8AM
WHEN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS AND WEAKENS...AND SURFACE WINDS
START TO INCREASE. LIMITED MVFR/IFR VALLEY FOG IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP TONIGHT. MOST WILL BE IN THE PREFERRED RIVER VALLEYS.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...AND ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION ONCE WESTERN MVFR CIGS SCATTER AROUND
14-15Z/10-11AM.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...TWO FAST MOVING CLIPPER
SYSTEMS WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND BRING
THEIR ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXES INTO AND TROUGH OUR REGION. WHILE
EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA ARE EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN VFR
CONDITIONS...THE PREFERRED UPSLOPE REGIONS IN THE WEST MAY SEE A
COUPLE ROUNDS OF MVFR CIGS AND SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THIS WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AND THEN
AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WHEN IT MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR THE
FIRST SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OF THE SEASON. EACH OF THESE SYSTEMS
WILL ALSO HELP TO RAMP UP SURFACE WINDS WITH GUSTS APPROACH 30 KTS
AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/DS
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...PC/RAB
AVIATION...DS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1241 PM EDT THU OCT 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS OVER LAKE ERIE WITH A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES ON
SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1240 PM EDT THURSDAY...
THE AREA OF LIGHT RAIN THAT MOVED INTO WESTERN PARTS OF THE
REGION HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE PAST HOUR. ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON THANKS TO SURFACE HEATING AND STEEP LAPSE
RATES ALOFT. THE FOCUS FOR THE BEST COVERAGE STILL IS EXPECTED TO
BE ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA. HAVE MADE SMALL ADJUSTMENTS
UPWARD IN MOST LOCATIONS FOR HIGHER MAX TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY
BASED UPON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND EXPECTED TRENDS IN AREAS
THAT WILL EXPERIENCE SOME SUNSHINE TODAY.
AS OF 940 AM EDT THURSDAY...
REGIONAL RADARS ARE DEPICTING A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS MOVING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH KY/WV. THE LEADING EDGE IS JUST STARTING TO
REACH THE FAR WESTERN PARTS OF OUR REGION BETWEEN ROUGHLY TAZEWELL
AND RICHLANDS VA. PREVAILING FLOW AROUND THE UPPER LOW JUST
ADVECT THIS ACTIVITY INTO MAINLY THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. HAVE INCREASED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY ACROSS A GREATER
SWATH OF THE REGION THAN PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED...SPECIFICALLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA. HAVE ALSO
EXTENDED THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FARTHER EAST THIS MORNING
BASED UPON SOME LIGHT RETURNS ON KFCX RADAR IN THIS REGION AND
BOTH HRRR AND RNK WRK ARW MODEL PROJECTIONS THE NEXT FEW HOURS. NO
OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
AS OF 430 AM EDT THURSDAY...
DEEP UPPER LOW OVER OHIO DRIFTS NORTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. TROF
AXIS WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE TONIGHT. UNTIL
THEN...THREE SHORT WAVES CROSS THE AREA. MODELS HAVE ONE OF THESE
WAVES CROSSING THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST
AREAS WILL STILL BE UNDER THE COLD CORE OF THE UPPER LOW. WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS. 850
MB WINDS FROM THE WEST AT 30-35 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. SHUD BE ENOUGH
MIXING FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.
WATER VAPOR LOOP AND MODELS HAD EXTENSIVE AREA OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE
WITH THE UPPER LOW. THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TODAY
AND BY THIS EVENING...MOISTURE WILL BE CONFINED TO LOW LEVELS IN THE
WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA.
BY 00Z/8PM...SURFACE THROUGH 850 MB WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST. THEN
SURFACE RIDGING FROM HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF COAST WILL BACK
WINDS. THIS WILL END THE MUCH OF THE UPSLOPE...EVEN IN THE FAR
WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA. HAVE TRIMMED BACK CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION AFTER MIDNIGHT.
STATED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY. EXPECTING ENOUGH CLEARING
IN ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHWEST TONIGHT FOR SOME DECENT RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS. WENT LOWER THAN GUIDANCE FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT THURSDAY...
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL
FINALLY BE LIFTING OUT OF THE REGION...BUT THE PARENT UPPER
LOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL ALLOW THE
UPPER LOW TO DUMBBELL BACK AROUND INTO THE REGION AS A SHORT WAVE
MOVES SOUTHEAST OUT OF ALBERTA AND ANOTHER SHORT WAVE...TRACKING
OVER AN UPPER RIDGE IN THE WESTERN STATES...PHASES WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE. THIS WILL SEND AN ALBERTA CLIPPER LIKE
SYSTEM INTO THE REGION FOR SAT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. FRI
HOWEVER...SHOULD BE ONE OF THE BEST DAYS IN THE LAST WEEK OR SO WITH
CONSIDERABLE AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE AND MILD TEMPS WITH WEST SFC FLOW
AND NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
STRONG DYNAMICS ARE INDICATED WITH THE APPROACHING SHORT WAVE
WITH STRONG PVA SAT/SAT EVENING...BUT MOISTURE IS LIMITED. SFC FLOW
IS WEST AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...WHICH WILL FURTHER LIMIT MOISTURE
ADVECTION INTO THE REGION...AND PRODUCE DOWNSLOPING/DRYING EAST OF
THE ALLEGHANY FRONT. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT -SHRA WILL MOST
DEFINITELY DEVELOP WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT LATE
SATURDAY/SATURDAY EVENING...WITH PERHAPS A FEW SPRINKLES REACHING
THE BLUE RIDGE AS THE UPPER SHORT WAVE TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT
TOWARD 06Z SUN AND ROTATES THROUGH THE REGION. FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT
POPS IN THE CHC RANGE...BUT COULD SEE SOME LOW LIKELYS FROM WESTERN
GREENBRIER INTO NW SUMMERS SAT EVENING. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL
BE MILDER WITH WEST FLOW...BUT CONSIDERABLE MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER
WILL INHIBIT HEATING WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND ESPECIALLY EASTERN
WV/SW VA.
AS WE MOVE INTO SAT NIGHT AND THE SHORT WAVE TAKES ON A NEGATIVE
TILT AND ROTATES THROUGH THE PARENT TROUGH...A NEAR WINTERLIKE
PATTERN IS EVIDENT...AT LEAST FOR ABOUT 6 HOURS INTO SUN MORNING.
DECENT 15-20KT UPSLOPE COMPONENT INDICATED AND 850MB TEMPS DROP INTO
THE -2C RANGE WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT TOWARD 12Z SUN. DO FEEL
THAT THE UPSLOPE COMPONENT IS SUFFICIENT ENOUGH WITH THE INDICATED
850MB TEMPS AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...MAINLY ABOVE 3500 FT...TO
SUPPORT OUR FIRST -SHSN OF THE SEASON. THIS WOULD MAINLY AFFECT
WESTERN GREENBRIER NORTHWARD...POSSIBLY EXTREME NW SUMMERS. SFC
TEMPS WILL LIKELY REMAIN AOA FREEZING EXCEPT AT THE VERY HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS...SO NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED AT ALL. ANY -SHSN SHOULD BE
ENDING QUICKLY AFT 12Z SUN AS THE UPSLOPE COMPONENT BECOMES LESS
FAVORABLE AND THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT. TEMPERATURES SUN WILL BE
COOLER...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE 50S WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND A FEW 40S IN WESTERN GREENBRIER
WHERE UPSLOPE CLOUDS COULD LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH FAIRLY QUICKLY...HOWEVER...AS THE DAY PROGRESSES WITH THE
UPPER FLOW QUICKLY RESPONDING TO THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT THURSDAY...
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH A SERIES OF NW FLOW SHORT
WAVES CONTINUING TO BE THE MAIN WEATHER MAKER FOR THE REGION. THE
MAIN CONCERN OF SIGNIFICANCE WILL BE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...WHEN SOME FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE EARLY SUN. HOWEVER...THE WIND MAY BE TOO
STRONG YET TO ALLOW FOR ANY WIDESPREAD FREEZE...WHICH HAS YET TO
OCCUR SO FAR THIS FALL. THIS WOULD BE THE LAST CHANCE FOR A FREEZE
FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH IS RAPIDLY
APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE MONDAY...WHICH
APPEARS SIMILAR TO THE SAT SYSTEM...ALBEIT LESS DYNAMIC AND OVERALL
FURTHER NORTH. THIS SHOULD BE FOLLOWED BY SEVERAL DAYS OF QUIET
WEATHER ONCE AGAIN WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR FREEZE/FROST COMING
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM EARLY THU.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 735 AM EDT THURSDAY...
IFR TO MVFR CLOUDS HAVE EXPANDED NORTH ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
WILL BE SPREADING INTO KBCB BEFORE 14Z/10AM. EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...BREAKS IN THE HIGH CLOUDS RESULTED IN PATCHY MVFR TO IFR
FOG FORMATION. EXPECT NO IMPACT FROM FOG AT KROA/KLYH AND KDAN.
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WAS APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. MORE SHOWERS WILL POP UP BY MID TO LATE MORNING WITH
SOME DAYTIME HEATING...BUT AS FLOW BECOMES MORE W AND
NW...DOWNSLOPE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE SHOULD KEEP KDAN/KLYH OUT OF
THE SHRA. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ANYWHERE FROM KBCB
WEST INTO SE WEST VIRGINIA...MAINLY BETWEEN 15Z/11AM AND 21Z/5PM.
AFTER SUNSET...CLOUDS WILL CLEAR EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. MVFR
CEILINGS WILL HOLD IN MUCH OF THE NIGHT IN SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA...INCLUDING KBLF AND KLWB.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
BY FRIDAY...THE INITIAL PIECE OF THE 5H TROUGH WILL LIFT BACK
NORTH ALLOWING FOR A DRIER ZONAL FLOW TO BRIEFLY DEVELOP WHICH
WILL BRING WIDESPREAD VFR TO END THE WEEK. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT LACKING
MOISTURE BUT ENOUGH TO LIKELY WRING OUT SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCED MVFR
LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS SE WEST VIRGINIA WHERE A FEW SHRA WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME OF THIS CLOUD COVER MAY SPILL INTO
KBCB/KROA GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE NW FLOW WITH LESS CLOUDS TO
THE EAST PER DOWNSLOPE DRYING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH VFR EXPECTED.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/DS
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...PC/RAB
AVIATION...AMS/JH