Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 10/16/14


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
1116 PM EDT WED OCT 15 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL TRACK EAST OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING. LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CANADA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO THE SOUTHWEST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY AFFECT THE AREA NEXT TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FOR WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... PLENTY OF LOW TOPPED CONVECTION IN AN INCREASINGLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT NOW IMPACTING PART OF OUR AREA. BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS...AND UPDATED HRRR SIM REFL FORECASTS...EXPECT BROKEN AREAS OF HEAVY SHOWERS TO TRAVERSE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. THE MAIN AREA THOUGH WILL SLOWLY TRANSLATE EAST. POPS AND COVERAGE INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT. WITH LOW LEVEL JET EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE UP THE COAST...TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE IN WEAK INSTABILITY. WITH THESE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT...A FEW GUSTS IN HEAVY SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY APPROACH 40 KTS. MAIN THREAT THOUGH IS HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AND URBAN OR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR TRAINING OF STORMS. RECENT OBS HAVE SHOWN A QUARTER OF AN INCH IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN VERY WARM TEMPS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. VERY LITTLE DROP IN TEMPS FROM CURRENT READINGS IS ANTICIPATED. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED THURSDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING. PRECIPITATION DOES END ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES IN THE MORNING BUT WILL TAKE MOST OF THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING TO END EAST AS THE TROUGH BECOMES EVEN MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED. SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY REMAINS INTO THURSDAY SO CONTINUE WITH THE ISOLATED THUNDER AND HEAVY RAINFALL. THE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT LIFT NORTH AND EAST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT TOWARD FRIDAY MORNING AS UPPER FLOW THEN BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND WEAK HIGH BUILDS TO THE SOUTHWEST. ACROSS THE WESTERN SECTIONS HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE EARLY IN THE DAY ALTHOUGH THERE IS NOT GOING TO BE A SURGE OF MUCH COLDER AIR. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. A DRY COLD FRONT SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...RESULTING IN A DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE AROUND 70...THEN FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S BY SUNDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S...THEN FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S BY SUNDAY NIGHT. LOWS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH SUN NIGHT FOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS. MONDAY AND TUESDAY AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA. THE AIR WILL PROBABLY BE TOO DRY TO SUPPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. DRY CONDITIONS RETURN WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. && .AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES IN THROUGH THURSDAY. MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WITH OCCASIONAL IFR BEFORE BECOMING PREVAILING IFR OVERNIGHT AT MAINLY CITY TERMINALS AND NORTHWEST. TO THE EAST...IT WILL TAKE A FEW HOURS LONGER FOR MVFR AND THEN IFR TO MATERIALIZE. SOME FLUCTUATION WILL BE SEEN AT TIMES BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR/IFR. SHOWERS WILL BE OVERALL INTERMITTENT TONIGHT WITH THE HEAVIEST OF RAIN TOWARDS DAYBREAK...WHEN LIFR WILL BE POSSIBLE. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO FORECAST BUT TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN TIME AND LOCATION FOR INCLUSION IN TAFS. WINDS...SE TO S THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...10-15 KT WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. LOW LEVEL JET OF 50 KT AT 2KFT OVERNIGHT. HIGHER GUSTS...PERHAPS 30-35 KT POSSIBLE WITH SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS. IFR AND SHOWER TIMING COULD VARY 2-4 HOURS FROM FORECAST. THERE MAY EVEN BE A PERIOD TONIGHT WHERE IT IS MOSTLY DRY. AMENDMENTS LIKELY TO REFINE TIMING OF SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRI THROUGH MON... .THU NIGHT...VFR. S WINDS 5-10 KT...DECREASING AND BECOMING MORE WESTERLY. .FRI-SAT...VFR. WSW WINDS 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KT. .SUN..VFR. WNW WINDS AROUND 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT. .MON...VFR. W WINDS 5-10 KT. && .MARINE... SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND PERSISTS ON THE AREA WATERS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE HIGHEST WIND AND GUSTS WILL BE TONIGHT AS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE AS THE FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE REGION. MINIMAL SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ARE LIKELY ON THE OCEAN WATERS TONIGHT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WATERS. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS REMAIN AROUND 4 TO 6 FT LATE THIS EVENING AND WILL BUILD THROUGH THE NIGHT IN THE PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW. THE WINDS SUBSIDE AND THEN SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE EVENING THURSDAY. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT. SEAS WILL REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS PREVAIL BEHIND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SWELLS FROM DISTANT HURRICANE GONZALO IMPACT THE AREA WATERS. SEAS FALL BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ON MONDAY AND REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVEL CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. PLEASE REFER TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY INFORMATION. && .HYDROLOGY... A SLOW MOVING LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ALLOW FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS AT TIMES TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY. TOTAL RAINFALL DURING THIS TIME FRAME SHOULD AVERAGE AROUND 1 1/2 INCHES. A RANGE OF 1 TO 3 INCHES PER ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS. DEPENDING ON WHERE EXACTLY HEAVIER BANDS DEVELOP...LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE DEFINITELY POSSIBLE. LOW LYING...POOR DRAINAGE...AND URBAN FLOODING ARE LIKELY. AFTER THURSDAY NIGHT NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIP EXPECTED. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355. && $$ AVIATION...JM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
1029 PM EDT WED OCT 15 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL TRACK EAST OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING. LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CANADA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO THE SOUTHWEST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY AFFECT THE AREA NEXT TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FOR WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... PLENTY OF LOW TOPPED CONVECTION IN AN INCREASINGLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT NOW IMPACTING PART OF OUR AREA. BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS...AND UPDATED HRRR SIM REFL FORECASTS...EXPECT BROKEN AREAS OF HEAVY SHOWERS TO TRAVERSE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. THE MAIN AREA THOUGH WILL SLOWLY TRANSLATE EAST. POPS AND COVERAGE INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT. WITH LOW LEVEL JET EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE UP THE COAST...TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE IN WEAK INSTABILITY. WITH THESE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT...A FEW GUSTS IN HEAVY SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY APPROACH 40 KTS. MAIN THREAT THOUGH IS HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AND URBAN OR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR TRAINING OF STORMS. RECENT OBS HAVE SHOWN A QUARTER OF AN INCH IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN VERY WARM TEMPS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. VERY LITTLE DROP IN TEMPS FROM CURRENT READINGS IS ANTICIPATED. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED THURSDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING. PRECIPITATION DOES END ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES IN THE MORNING BUT WILL TAKE MOST OF THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING TO END EAST AS THE TROUGH BECOMES EVEN MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED. SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY REMAINS INTO THURSDAY SO CONTINUE WITH THE ISOLATED THUNDER AND HEAVY RAINFALL. THE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT LIFT NORTH AND EAST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT TOWARD FRIDAY MORNING AS UPPER FLOW THEN BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND WEAK HIGH BUILDS TO THE SOUTHWEST. ACROSS THE WESTERN SECTIONS HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE EARLY IN THE DAY ALTHOUGH THERE IS NOT GOING TO BE A SURGE OF MUCH COLDER AIR. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. A DRY COLD FRONT SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...RESULTING IN A DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE AROUND 70...THEN FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S BY SUNDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S...THEN FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S BY SUNDAY NIGHT. LOWS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH SUN NIGHT FOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS. MONDAY AND TUESDAY AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA. THE AIR WILL PROBABLY BE TOO DRY TO SUPPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. DRY CONDITIONS RETURN WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. && .AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES IN THROUGH THURSDAY. MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WITH OCCASIONAL IFR BEFORE BECOMING PREVAILING IFR OVERNIGHT AT MAINLY CITY TERMINALS AND NORTHWEST. TO THE EAST...IT WILL TAKE A FEW HOURS LONGER FOR MVFR AND THEN IFR TO MATERIALIZE. SHOWERS WILL BE OVERALL INTERMITTENT TONIGHT WITH THE HEAVIEST OF RAIN TOWARDS DAYBREAK...WHEN LIFR WILL BE POSSIBLE. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO FORECAST BUT TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN TIME AND LOCATION FOR INCLUSION IN TAFS. WINDS...SE TO S THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...10-15 KT WITH FREQUENT GUSTS 20-25 KT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. LOW LEVEL JET OF 50 KT AT 2KFT OVERNIGHT. HIGHER GUSTS...PERHAPS 30-35 KT POSSIBLE WITH SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR AND SHOWER TIMING COULD VARY 2-4 HOURS FROM FORECAST. THERE MAY EVEN BE A PERIOD TONIGHT WHERE IT IS MOSTLY DRY. AMENDMENTS LIKELY TO REFINE TIMING OF SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR AND SHOWER TIMING COULD VARY 2-4 HOURS FROM FORECAST. THERE MAY EVEN BE A PERIOD TONIGHT WHERE IT IS MOSTLY DRY. AMENDMENTS LIKELY TO REFINE TIMING OF SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR AND SHOWER TIMING COULD VARY 2-4 HOURS FROM FORECAST. THERE MAY EVEN BE A PERIOD TONIGHT WHERE IT IS MOSTLY DRY. AMENDMENTS LIKELY TO REFINE TIMING OF SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR AND SHOWER TIMING COULD VARY 2-4 HOURS FROM FORECAST. THERE MAY EVEN BE A PERIOD TONIGHT WHERE IT IS MOSTLY DRY. AMENDMENTS LIKELY TO REFINE TIMING OF SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR AND SHOWER TIMING COULD VARY 2-4 HOURS FROM FORECAST. THERE MAY EVEN BE A PERIOD TONIGHT WHERE IT IS MOSTLY DRY. AMENDMENTS LIKELY TO REFINE TIMING OF SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR AND SHOWER TIMING COULD VARY 2-4 HOURS FROM FORECAST. THERE MAY EVEN BE A PERIOD TONIGHT WHERE IT IS MOSTLY DRY. AMENDMENTS LIKELY TO REFINE TIMING OF SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRI THROUGH MON... .THU NIGHT...VFR. S WINDS 5-10 KT...DECREASING AND BECOMING MORE WESTERLY. .FRI-SAT...VFR. WSW WINDS 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KT. .SUN..VFR. WNW WINDS AROUND 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT. .MON...VFR. W WINDS 5-10 KT. && .MARINE... SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND PERSISTS ON THE AREA WATERS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE HIGHEST WIND AND GUSTS WILL BE TONIGHT AS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE AS THE FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE REGION. MINIMAL SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ARE LIKELY ON THE OCEAN WATERS TONIGHT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WATERS. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS REMAIN AROUND 4 TO 6 FT LATE THIS EVENING AND WILL BUILD THROUGH THE NIGHT IN THE PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW. THE WINDS SUBSIDE AND THEN SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE EVENING THURSDAY. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT. SEAS WILL REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS PREVAIL BEHIND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SWELLS FROM DISTANT HURRICANE GONZALO IMPACT THE AREA WATERS. SEAS FALL BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ON MONDAY AND REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVEL CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. PLEASE REFER TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY INFORMATION. && .HYDROLOGY... A SLOW MOVING LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ALLOW FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS AT TIMES TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY. TOTAL RAINFALL DURING THIS TIME FRAME SHOULD AVERAGE AROUND 1 1/2 INCHES. A RANGE OF 1 TO 3 INCHES PER ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS. DEPENDING ON WHERE EXACTLY HEAVIER BANDS DEVELOP...LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE DEFINITELY POSSIBLE. LOW LYING...POOR DRAINAGE...AND URBAN FLOODING ARE LIKELY. AFTER THURSDAY NIGHT NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIP EXPECTED. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355. && $$ UPDATE...PW AVIATION...JM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
825 PM EDT WED OCT 15 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL TRACK EAST TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING. LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CANADA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO THE SOUTHWEST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY AFFECT THE AREA NEXT TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FOR WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... PLENTY OF LOW TOPPED CONVECTION IN AN INCREASING MOIST ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES JUST TO THE WEST. BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS...AND UPDATED HRRR SIM REFL FORECASTS...EXPECT BROKEN AREAS OF HEAVY SHOWERS TO TRAVERSE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. THE WHOLE AREA THOUGH WILL SLOWLY TRANSLATE EAST. CHANGED WEATHER WORDING IN COVERAGE TERMS FOR OCCASIONAL HEAVY SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR TRAINING OF CELLS. SOUTH WINDS WILL RESULT IN VERY WARM TEMPS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... THE UPPER LOW BECOMES NEGATIVE THURSDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING. PRECIPITATION DOES END ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES IN THE MORNING BUT WILL TAKE MOST OF THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING TO END EAST AS THE TROUGH BECOMES EVEN MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED. SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY REMAINS INTO THURSDAY SO CONTINUE WITH THE ISOLATED THUNDER AND HEAVY RAINFALL. THE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT LIFT NORTH AND EAST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT TOWARD FRIDAY MORNING AS UPPER FLOW THEN BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND WEAK HIGH BUILDS TO THE SOUTHWEST. ACROSS THE WESTERN SECTIONS HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE EARLY IN THE DAY ALTHOUGH THERE IS NOT GOING TO BE A SURGE OF MUCH COLDER AIR. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. A DRY COLD FRONT SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...RESULTING IN A DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE AROUND 70...THEN FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S BY SUNDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S...THEN FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S BY SUNDAY NIGHT. LOWS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH SUN NIGHT FOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS. MONDAY AND TUESDAY AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA. THE AIR WILL PROBABLY BE TOO DRY TO SUPPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. DRY CONDITIONS RETURN WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES IN THROUGH THURSDAY. MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WITH OCCASIONAL IFR BEFORE BECOMING PREVAILING IFR OVERNIGHT AT MAINLY CITY TERMINALS AND NORTHWEST. TO THE EAST...IT WILL TAKE A FEW HOURS LONGER FOR MVFR AND THEN IFR TO MATERIALIZE. SHOWERS WILL BE OVERALL INTERMITTENT TONIGHT WITH THE HEAVIEST OF RAIN TOWARDS DAYBREAK...WHEN LIFR WILL BE POSSIBLE. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO FORECAST BUT TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN TIME AND LOCATION FOR INCLUSION IN TAFS. WINDS...SE TO S THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...10-15 KT WITH FREQUENT GUSTS 20-25 KT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. LOW LEVEL JET OF 50 KT AT 2KFT OVERNIGHT. HIGHER GUSTS...PERHAPS 30-35 KT POSSIBLE WITH SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR AND SHOWER TIMING COULD VARY 2-4 HOURS FROM FORECAST. THERE MAY EVEN BE A PERIOD TONIGHT WHERE IT IS MOSTLY DRY. AMENDMENTS LIKELY TO REFINE TIMING OF SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR AND SHOWER TIMING COULD VARY 2-4 HOURS FROM FORECAST. THERE MAY EVEN BE A PERIOD TONIGHT WHERE IT IS MOSTLY DRY. AMENDMENTS LIKELY TO REFINE TIMING OF SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR AND SHOWER TIMING COULD VARY 2-4 HOURS FROM FORECAST. THERE MAY EVEN BE A PERIOD TONIGHT WHERE IT IS MOSTLY DRY. AMENDMENTS LIKELY TO REFINE TIMING OF SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR AND SHOWER TIMING COULD VARY 2-4 HOURS FROM FORECAST. THERE MAY EVEN BE A PERIOD TONIGHT WHERE IT IS MOSTLY DRY. AMENDMENTS LIKELY TO REFINE TIMING OF SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR AND SHOWER TIMING COULD VARY 2-4 HOURS FROM FORECAST. THERE MAY EVEN BE A PERIOD TONIGHT WHERE IT IS MOSTLY DRY. AMENDMENTS LIKELY TO REFINE TIMING OF SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR AND SHOWER TIMING COULD VARY 2-4 HOURS FROM FORECAST. THERE MAY EVEN BE A PERIOD TONIGHT WHERE IT IS MOSTLY DRY. AMENDMENTS LIKELY TO REFINE TIMING OF SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRI THROUGH MON... .THU NIGHT...VFR. S WINDS 5-10 KT...DECREASING AND BECOMING MORE WESTERLY. .FRI-SAT...VFR. WSW WINDS 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KT. .SUN..VFR. WNW WINDS AROUND 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT. .MON...VFR. W WINDS 5-10 KT. && .MARINE... SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND PERSISTS ON THE AREA WATERS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE HIGHEST WIND AND GUSTS WILL BE TONIGHT AS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE AS THE FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE REGION. MINIMAL SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ARE LIKELY ON THE OCEAN WATERS TONIGHT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WATERS. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS WERE 4 TO 5 FT EARLY THIS EVENING AND WILL BUILD THROUGH THE NIGHT IN THE PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW. ONCE THE WINDS SUBSIDE AND THEN SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE EVENING THURSDAY...SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT. SEAS WILL REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS PREVAIL BEHIND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SWELLS FROM DISTANT HURRICANE GONZALO IMPACT THE AREA WATERS. SEAS FALL BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ON MONDAY AND REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVEL CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. PLEASE REFER TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY INFORMATION. && .HYDROLOGY... A SLOW MOVING LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ALLOW FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS AT TIMES TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY. TOTAL RAINFALL DURING THIS TIME FRAME SHOULD AVERAGE AROUND 1 1/2 INCHES. A RANGE OF 1 TO 3 INCHES PER ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS. DEPENDING ON WHERE EXACTLY HEAVIER BANDS DEVELOP...LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE DEFINITELY POSSIBLE. LOW LYING...POOR DRAINAGE...AND URBAN FLOODING ARE LIKELY. AFTER THURSDAY NIGHT NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIP EXPECTED. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355. && $$ UPDATE...PW AVIATION...JM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1042 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014 .UPDATE... MOST RECENT SPC OUTLOOK HAS PUSHED JUST A TAD BIT SOUTH WITH SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS NOW MENTIONED FOR PORTIONS OF PASCO...HERNANDO AND SUMTER COUNTIES NORTH INTO LEVY. MORNING UPDATE WHICH WAS SENT OUT ALREADY THIS MORNING INCLUDED THE MENTION OF GUSTY WINDS IN THE GRIDS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NATURE COAST. THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT THAT HAS BEEN OFFSHORE THIS MORNING HAS GRADUALLY DIMINISHED IN INTENSITY AS IT APPROACHED THE GULF COAST. THAT BEING SAID...SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS NEAR THE COAST FROM TAMPA BAY SOUTHWARD. FOR THE AFTERNOON...MOST RECENT HRRR GUIDANCE IS MUCH MORE ROBUST THAN THE PAST FEW RUNS ON RE-DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/STORMS OFFSHORE BEFORE GRADUALLY PUSHING INLAND. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT DO NOT SEE A REASON TO ADJUST THE CURRENT FORECAST ALL THAT MUCH. WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE SOME CHANGES THROUGHOUT THE DAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS AS WELL AS LATEST FORECAST THINKING HOWEVER. && .AVIATION... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH LOCALIZED REDUCTIONS TO MVFR/IFR LIKELY IN THE STRONGEST STORMS. CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAY TOMORROW BEFORE THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON. && .MARINE... EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8PM THIS EVENING FOR THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COASTAL WATERS AS LOCAL HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST THAT WINDS NEAR 20 KTS MAY PERSIST AHEAD OF THE FRONT UNTIL THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AS THE DAY PROGRESSES WHILE THE COLD FRONT IS LOCATED FAR OFFSHORE STILL. STORMS WILL BE A THREAT FOR THE REST OF THE DAY AND INTO THE DAY TOMORROW WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 85 75 81 65 / 60 50 40 10 FMY 87 76 85 66 / 50 40 50 20 GIF 86 74 83 63 / 60 40 40 10 SRQ 85 76 82 64 / 70 50 40 10 BKV 85 72 80 53 / 70 50 30 10 SPG 85 76 82 69 / 70 60 40 10 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS. GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM. && $$ UPDATE/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...11/MCKAUGHAN MARINE...007/DOUGHERTY AND 11/MCKAUGHAN DECISION SUPPORT...69/CLOSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSONVILLE FL
415 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014 ...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT... .SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WED... SYNOPSIS...A ROBUST PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE WAS ONGOING EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE FL PANHANDLE...WITH THE TRAILING SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHING MOBILE BAY. THE PARENT STACKED LOW PRESSURE CENTERS WERE PHASING OVER THE MIDWEST...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS STILL DIGGING SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. SPOKES OF PVA WERE ROTATING AROUND THE STACKED LOW...THE STRONGEST LOBE FUELING THE CURRENT PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE...WITH ANOTHER WEAKER SPOKE OF ENERGY ROTATING ENE OVER THE EASTERN GULF COAST NEAR APALACHEE BAY WHERE A FEW CLUSTERS OF TSTORMS WERE FIRING THIS HOUR. THIS MORNING...A FEW MORNING COASTAL WILL SKIRT THE ATLANTIC COAST WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER FROM THE WEST. BREEZY SOUTH WINDS WILL NEAR 15 MPH AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE RIVER BASIN AND COAST BY MID-MORNING AS TEMPS RISE INTO THE MID 80S BY NOON UNDER WARM AIR ADVECTION. PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL APPROACH THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY FROM APALACHEE BAY...WITH THE HRRR SHOWING ROBUST ACTIVITY IN THE GULF FADING AS IT SHIFTS INLAND THROUGH MIDDAY...WITH AREAS EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 301 CORRIDOR REMAINING DRY LESS A STRAY EARLY MORNING COASTAL SHOWER. THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT...BY EARLY AFTN...THE COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE APPROACH OF PVA WILL FUEL A BLOSSOMING OF SHOWERS/TSTORMS ACROSS INLAND AREAS PRESSING STEADILY EASTWARD TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. STRONG WINDS GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN GIVEN SHEAR PROFILES...WITH ROTATING CELLS ALSO POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER SE GA AND THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY WHERE BULK SHEAR WILL BE STRONGEST. AFTER THE INITIAL CLUSTER OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN PRECIP SHIFTS OFFSHORE OF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD THIS EVENING...ANOTHER ROBUST LINE OF PRECIP WILL EDGE EASTWARD ALONG THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT ENTERING OUR WESTERN ZONES AND SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY ZONES AROUND 03Z BASED ON MODEL CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE GFS40/NAM12. THE HEAVY LINE OF TSTORMS WILL LIKELY DECREASE IN INTENSITY WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING TONIGHT AND AS STRONGER DYNAMICS LIFT NE OF THE AREA AS THE PARENT SYSTEM FINALLY LIFTS OUT. EXCEPT A GRADUAL SPLIT IN PRECIP CORE TONIGHT AS THE SQUALL LINE APPROACHES THE JAX METRO AREA...WITH ONE CORE LIFTING NE WITH DYNAMICS AND THE OTHER EDGING INLAND OVER OUR SOUTHERN FL ZONES WHERE GULF INSTABILITY WILL BE HIGHER. WED...A FEW RUMBLES OF EARLY MORNING THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE TRAILING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE OVER COASTAL GA AND NE FL...WITH MAINLY SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THROUGH MIDDAY. AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF REGION BUILDS OVER THE LOCAL AREA...WEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL WITH DRIER AIR EDGING IN BY MIDDAY WITH DEW PTS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S OVER INLAND SE GA AND THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY DURING THE AFTN. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S OVER OUR NORTHERN SE GA ZONES TO LOWER 80 ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN FL ZONES AS SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY. THURSDAY...A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE AS UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR CLIMO LEVELS. MORNING LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS 75 TO 80 DEGREES. .LONG TERM... FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AT SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND BECOME DIFFUSE WITH LITTLE EFFECTS. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MIN TEMPERATURES NEAR AVERAGE. && .AVIATION... A FEW COASTAL SHOWERS MAY SKIRT NEAR SSI AND CRG EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A BRIEF SHOT OF MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO BKN CIGS NEAR 3KFT. CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN FROM THE SSW THROUGH THE DAY IN ADVANCE OF COLD FRONT...WITH A COUPLE OF BANDS OF PRE- FRONTAL PRECIP EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT 36 HRS. BY MIDDAY...A BAND OF PRECIP WILL LIKELY BE EDGING INLAND FROM THE GULF COAST REGION SHIFTING ENE INTO THE LATTER PART OF THE AFTN. INTRODUCED PREVAILING TSRA BETWEEN 18-19Z FOR ALL TERMINALS...AND CONTINUED PRECIP THROUGH LATE TUE NIGHT WITH A LIKELY CONTINUATION OF OFF- AND-ON SHOWER AND STORMS ACTIVITY UNTIL A MORE ORGANIZED LINE OF SHOWERS/TSTORMS ALONG THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP IN CONVECTION THIS AFTN WITH BREAKS TO VFR...THEN MVFR TO IFR OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONTAL PRECIP MOVES ACROSS THE TERMINALS. MAY NEED TO INCLUDE WIND SHEAR IN THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE FOR TUE NIGHT. && .MARINE... A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE LOCAL WATERS FROM THE WEST TODAY AND TONIGHT...PRECEDED BY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CONTINUED WITH EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES WITH SOUTH WINDS 15-20 KTS THIS MORNING...THEN ADVISORY CONDITIONS TONIGHT OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS WITH WINDS NEAR 20 KTS. STRONG WIND GUSTS CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE GULF REGION THURSDAY TRAILING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH OFFSHORE FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS WILL RELAX WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER COMBINED SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED INTO THE WEEKEND DUE TO EASTERLY SWELLS FROM DISTANT HURRICANE GONZALO. RIP CURRENTS: A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED TODAY DUE TO INCREASED SOUTH FLOW 15-20 KTS AND A CONTINUATION OF LONG PERIOD EAST SWELLS OF 2 FT WITH 10-11 SECOND PERIODS. A LOW RISK IS ANTICIPATED FOR WED AT THIS TIME DUE TO OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING...HOWEVER EAST SWELLS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. && .FIRE WEATHER... DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. RH`S WILL FALL INTO THE 30`S. INCREASED TRANPORT WINDS AND MIXING HEIGHTS WILL ALSO PRODUCE HIGH DISPERION INDICES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. NO RED FLAG HEADLINES NEEDED. && .CLIMATE... RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES MAY BE CHALLENGED THIS MORNING. BELOW ARE RECORD HIGH MIN TEMPS FOR OCTOBER 14TH: SITE VALUE/YEAR JAX 76/1912 GNV 74/1912 AMG 72/1995 SSI 75/1986 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 81 65 76 55 / 90 80 20 0 SSI 81 70 77 60 / 80 80 70 0 JAX 87 70 80 57 / 80 80 60 0 SGJ 86 72 80 60 / 80 70 60 10 GNV 86 69 79 57 / 80 80 40 0 OCF 88 70 81 58 / 80 80 50 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GA...NONE. AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE. && $$ ENYEDI/ZIBURA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
203 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014 .SYNOPSIS... ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN TODAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD FROM THE WEST THROUGH LATE WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT COULD EFFECT THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TODAY WITH A CLOSED LOW POSITIONED OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WELL OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...WHILE A POTENT COLD FRONT STRETCHING ACROSS EASTERN TN...WESTERN GA AND THE CENTRAL FL PANHANDLE AS OF EARLY AFTERNOON SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST. SCATTERED CELLULAR CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST GA AND FAR SOUTHERN SC EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER CONCERN FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A LINEAR CONVECTIVE LINE APPROACHES IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WHERE THE STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE FOUND. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY TO HOW MUCH THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE ABLE TO DESTABILIZE IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT GIVEN THE INCREASING HIGH LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDINESS...BUT WITH TEMPERATURES ALREADY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S AND DEW POINTS IN THE 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MAY NOT A BIG ENOUGH NEGATING FACTOR. MOST OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MESOSCALE MODELS...INCLUDING THE HRRR...RUC13...AND OUR LOCALLY RUN 4KM WRF MODELS...SHOW THE LINEAR CONVECTIVE LINE ENTERING FAR INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AFTER 3 OR 4 PM...MOVING THROUGH THE SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN INTO COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. HRRR MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW CAPE VALUES REMAINING ELEVATED ABOVE 1000 J/KG THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING...WITH SOME BACKING OF THE WINDS OCCURRING NEAR THE SURFACE RESULTING IN SOME CLOCKWISE CURVATURE IN THE HODOGRAPH. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN STRONG 30-40 KT LOW LEVEL JETTING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW WEAK SHORT-LIVED TORNADOES WITHIN BOWING/BROKEN LINE SEGMENTS GIVEN THE SHEAR PROFILES. OVERALL...THE SEVERE THREAT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD AND THE CURRENT SLIGHT RISK FROM SPC SEEMS REASONABLE. IN ADDITION...THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES AND STORMS APPROACH THE SC COAST GIVEN LESSENING INSTABILITY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD REACH IN TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA....EXCEPT LOWER 80S ACROSS FAR INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE BREEZY AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW GUSTS UPWARDS OF AROUND 25 MPH POSSIBLE. OVERNIGHT...THE STRONGEST CONVECTION WILL WORK ITS WAY OFFSHORE AHEAD OF THE FRONT EARLY...BUT COULD NOT RULE OUT SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS UNTIL THE ACTUAL FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... WEDNESDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT OFFSHORE BY DAYBREAK...BUT ONGOING SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY EAST OF INTERSTATE 95 AS MOISTURE LINGERS OVER THE AREA AND ADDITIONAL FORCING OCCURS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A MID/UPPER LVL LOW PASSING TO OUR NORTH. ACTIVITY SHOULD QUICKLY SHIFT EAST AND OFFSHORE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER OVER THE TRI- COUNTY AREA WHERE FORCING FROM THE MID/UPPER LVL LOW IS GREATEST. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS WILL BE COOLER POST FROPA...BUT A DOWNSLOPING WIND COMPONENT SHOULD OFFSET MOST COLD-AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PASSING TO OUR NORTH. IN GENERAL...HIGH TEMPS WILL PEAK IN THE UPPER 70S OVER MOST LOCATIONS. WEDNESDAY NIGHT TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SHIFTING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. EXPECT TEMPS TO BE SOME 10-15 DEGREES COOLER...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS REACHING THE LOW/MID 50S AWAY FROM THE COAST. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MUCH QUIETER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD FROM THE WEST UNDER A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. TEMPS SHOULD SLOWLY MODIFY THROUGH EARLY WEEKEND WITH SUBSTANTIAL SUNSHINE AND A DOWNSLOPING WIND COMPONENT IN PLACE. IN GENERAL...AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE IN THE UPPER 70S ON THURSDAY...THEN AROUND 80 ON FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 50S AWAY FROM THE COAST. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... A QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE PATTERN UNDER A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. TEMPS WILL SLOWLY MODIFY TO THE LOWER 80S THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD ALSO SHOW A GRADUAL WARMING TREND...FROM MID/UPPER 50S FRIDAY NIGHT TO UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT COULD EFFECT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL...THUS HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY. PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD THEN INCREASE AS WE HEAD INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPRAOCH FROM THE WEST AND MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP...WITH A LINEAR LINE OF STRONGER COVECTION EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE FRONT NEARS. SHOWERS WILL THEN LINGER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS UNTIL THE ACTUAL FRONT PASSES. AT KCHS...THE FORECAST INDICATES VFR WITH SOME SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY INTO EARLY EVENING...WITH THE LINE OF STRONGER COVECTION MOVING THROUGH IN THE 02-06Z TIME FRAME. THIS LINE WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANYIED BY THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS AND MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS. AT KSAV...THE FORECAST INDICATES VFR WITH SOME SHOWERS THROUGH MID/LATE AFTERNOON...WITH THE LINE OF STRONGER COVECTION MOVING THROUGH IN THE 22-02Z TIME FRAME. THIS LINE WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANYIED BY THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS AND MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CHANCES OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AT EITHER TERMINAL WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT SHIFTS OFFSHORE WITH SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. && .MARINE... A STEADY ONSHORE COMPONENT FROM THE SE HAS BEEN BUILDING SEAS AT A SLOW BUT STEADY CLIP. THE ONSHORE TRAJECTORY AND FORECAST OF CLOSE TO 20 KT AT TIMES OFFSHORE HAVE PUSHED SEAS INTO THE MARGINAL 4-6 FT RANGE INTO ALL NEAR SHORE WATERS AND WE HAVE RAISED SMALL CRAFT FLAGS FOR ALL COASTAL ZONES. WE INITIALIZED WITH SCA OVER ALL COASTAL WATERS AND THEY WILL CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST LATER TONIGHT. IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR... NEIGHBORING WATER TEMPS DOWN A BIT FROM ADJACENT LAND MASS TEMP EXPECTATIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND WE CAPPED SSE FLOW AT 15-20 KT. A BIG POTENTIAL RISK FOR MARINERS THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WOULD BE STRONG LINEAR CONVECTION DRIVING OFF THE COAST WITH RISKS FOR WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35 KT. WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS SHOULD BE ONGOING FOR MUCH OF THE WATERS INTO DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY WHILE A STRONG COLD FRONT SHIFTS OVER THE WATERS. THE ENHANCED GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT SHOULD PRODUCE WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20-25 KT WHILE VEERING FROM SOUTH TO WEST/SOUTHWEST AND SEAS NEAR 4-6 FT IN NEARSHORE WATERS AND 6-7 FT IN OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AS THE FRONT SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. LATEST TRENDS INDICATE THAT BOTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL DECREASE/SUBSIDE TO BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS BY LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY. THUS ALL SCA/S WILL LIKELY END BY 18Z WEDNESDAY. WE COULD SEE ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF SURGING WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A MID/UPPER LVL LOW BEGINS TO SHIFT OFFSHORE LATE...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. WINDS/SEAS WILL THEN SLOWLY IMPROVE MID TO LATE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS...BUT LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM DISTANT TC GONZALO WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE LOCAL WATERS THURSDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. RIP CURRENTS...A SMALL LINGERING BACK SWELL ALONG WITH SOUTH AND SE WINDS AT 15-20 MPH WILL SUPPORT A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE BEACHES TODAY. && .CLIMATE... OCTOBER 14 RECORD MAX TEMPS... KCHS...88 1990 AND PREVIOUS YEARS. KCXM...85 1975 KSAV...88 1995 AND PREVIOUS YEARS. OCTOBER 14 RECORD HIGH MIN TEMPS... KCHS...71 1986 KCXM...74 1997 KSAV...72 1883 && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. SC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ352-354. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ350-374. && $$ NEAR TERM...JAQ SHORT TERM...DPB LONG TERM...DPB AVIATION...JAQ MARINE...DPB CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
1217 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014 .SYNOPSIS... ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN TODAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD FROM THE WEST THROUGH LATE WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT COULD EFFECT THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TODAY WITH A CLOSED LOW POSITIONED OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WELL OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...WHILE A POTENT COLD FRONT STRETCHING ACROSS CENTRAL TN...THE AL/GA STATE LATE AND THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE AS OF MIDDAY SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST. THE EARLIER THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER HAS ENDED AS THE IMMEDIATE UPSTREAM CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED AND HAD ITS EASTWARD PROGRESS SLOWED SIGNIFICANTLY BY THE AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. FOR THESE REASON THE TORNADO WATCH ISSUED EARLIER WAS CANCELLED AS OF 1015 AM FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST GA AND SOUTHEAST SC. STRATIFORM RAINS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WORK INTO FAR INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CONCERN FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A LINEAR CONVECTIVE LINE APPROACHES IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WHERE THE STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE FOUND. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY TO HOW MUCH THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE ABLE TO DESTABILIZE IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT GIVEN THE INCREASING HIGH LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDINESS...BUT WITH TEMPERATURES ALREADY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S AND DEW POINTS IN THE 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MAY NOT A BIG ENOUGH NEGATING FACTOR. MOST OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MESOSCALE MODELS...INCLUDING THE HRRR...RUC13...AND OUR LOCALLY RUN 4KM WRF MODELS...SHOW THE LINEAR CONVECTIVE LINE ENTERING FAR INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AFTER 3 OR 4 PM...MOVING THROUGH THE SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN INTO COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. HRRR MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW CAPE VALUES REMAINING ELEVATED ABOVE 1000 J/KG THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING...WITH SOME BACKING OF THE WINDS OCCURRING NEAR THE SURFACE RESULTING IN SOME CLOCKWISE CURVATURE IN THE HODOGRAPH. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN STRONG 30-40 KT LOW LEVEL JETTING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW WEAK SHORT-LIVED TORNADOES WITHIN BOWING/BROKEN LINE SEGMENTS GIVEN THE SHEAR PROFILES. OVERALL...THE SEVERE THREAT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD AND THE CURRENT SLIGHT RISK FROM SPC SEEMS REASONABLE. IN ADDITION...THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES AND STORMS APPROACH THE SC COAST GIVEN LESSENING INSTABILITY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD REACH IN TO THE LOWER AND MID 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. CONDITIONS COULD ALSO BECOME BREEZY AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW GUSTS UPWARDS OF 20-25 MPH POSSIBLE. OVERNIGHT...THE STRONGEST CONVECTION WILL WORK ITS WAY OFFSHORE AHEAD OF THE FRONT EARLY...BUT COULD NOT RULE OUT SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS UNTIL THE ACTUAL FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... WEDNESDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT OFFSHORE BY DAYBREAK...BUT ONGOING SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY EAST OF INTERSTATE 95 AS MOISTURE LINGERS OVER THE AREA AND ADDITIONAL FORCING OCCURS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A MID/UPPER LVL LOW PASSING TO OUR NORTH. ACTIVITY SHOULD QUICKLY SHIFT EAST AND OFFSHORE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER OVER THE TRI- COUNTY AREA WHERE FORCING FROM THE MID/UPPER LVL LOW IS GREATEST. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS WILL BE COOLER POST FROPA...BUT A DOWNSLOPING WIND COMPONENT SHOULD OFFSET MOST COLD-AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PASSING TO OUR NORTH. IN GENERAL...HIGH TEMPS WILL PEAK IN THE UPPER 70S OVER MOST LOCATIONS. WEDNESDAY NIGHT TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SHIFTING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. EXPECT TEMPS TO BE SOME 10-15 DEGREES COOLER...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS REACHING THE LOW/MID 50S AWAY FROM THE COAST. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MUCH QUIETER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD FROM THE WEST UNDER A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. TEMPS SHOULD SLOWLY MODIFY THROUGH EARLY WEEKEND WITH SUBSTANTIAL SUNSHINE AND A DOWNSLOPING WIND COMPONENT IN PLACE. IN GENERAL...AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE IN THE UPPER 70S ON THURSDAY...THEN AROUND 80 ON FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 50S AWAY FROM THE COAST. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... A QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE PATTERN UNDER A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. TEMPS WILL SLOWLY MODIFY TO THE LOWER 80S THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD ALSO SHOW A GRADUAL WARMING TREND...FROM MID/UPPER 50S FRIDAY NIGHT TO UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT COULD EFFECT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL...THUS HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY. PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD THEN INCREASE AS WE HEAD INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. && .AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... WE HAVE NUDGED TSRA CHANCES UP SOONER INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AT KSAV AND LATER AFTERNOON AT KCHS GIVEN LATEST REGION RADAR TRENDS AT 1130Z. HIGH CLOUDS WILL THICKEN THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL RAINS ARRIVE LATER TODAY. TONIGHT UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH CHANCES FOR TSTMS...HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES WITH MVFR/IFR VSBYS AT TIMES IN DOWNPOURS. HEAVIER RAINS SHOULD SHIFT INTO SE SOUTH CAROLINA AFTER MIDNIGHT...DIMINISHING AT KSAV LATE. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...HIGH CHANCES OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AT EITHER TERMINAL WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT SHIFTS OFFSHORE WITH SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. && .MARINE... A STEADY ONSHORE COMPONENT FROM THE SE HAS BEEN BUILDING SEAS AT A SLOW BUT STEADY CLIP. THE ONSHORE TRAJECTORY AND FORECAST OF CLOSE TO 20 KT AT TIMES OFFSHORE HAVE PUSHED SEAS INTO THE MARGINAL 4-6 FT RANGE INTO ALL NEAR SHORE WATERS AND WE HAVE RAISED SMALL CRAFT FLAGS FOR ALL COASTAL ZONES. WE INITIALIZED WITH SCA OVER ALL COASTAL WATERS AND THEY WILL CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST LATER TONIGHT. IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR... NEIGHBORING WATER TEMPS DOWN A BIT FROM ADJACENT LAND MASS TEMP EXPECTATIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND WE CAPPED SSE FLOW AT 15-20 KT. A BIG POTENTIAL RISK FOR MARINERS THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WOULD BE STRONG LINEAR CONVECTION DRIVING OFF THE COAST WITH RISKS FOR WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35 KT. WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS SHOULD BE ONGOING FOR MUCH OF THE WATERS INTO DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY WHILE A STRONG COLD FRONT SHIFTS OVER THE WATERS. THE ENHANCED GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT SHOULD PRODUCE WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20-25 KT WHILE VEERING FROM SOUTH TO WEST/SOUTHWEST AND SEAS NEAR 4-6 FT IN NEARSHORE WATERS AND 6-7 FT IN OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AS THE FRONT SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. LATEST TRENDS INDICATE THAT BOTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL DECREASE/SUBSIDE TO BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS BY LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY. THUS ALL SCA/S WILL LIKELY END BY 18Z WEDNESDAY. WE COULD SEE ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF SURGING WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A MID/UPPER LVL LOW BEGINS TO SHIFT OFFSHORE LATE...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. WINDS/SEAS WILL THEN SLOWLY IMPROVE MID TO LATE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS...BUT LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM DISTANT TC GONZALO WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE LOCAL WATERS THURSDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. RIP CURRENTS...A SMALL LINGERING BACK SWELL ALONG WITH SOUTH AND SE WINDS AT 15-20 MPH WILL SUPPORT A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE BEACHES TODAY. && .CLIMATE... OCTOBER 14 RECORD MAX TEMPS... KCHS...88 1990 AND PREVIOUS YEARS. KCXM...85 1975 KSAV...88 1995 AND PREVIOUS YEARS. OCTOBER 14 RECORD HIGH MIN TEMPS... KCHS...71 1986 KCXM...74 1997 KSAV...72 1883 && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. SC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ352-354. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ350-374. && $$ NEAR TERM...JAQ SHORT TERM...DPB LONG TERM...DPB AVIATION... MARINE...DPB CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
810 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST WILL DIRECT A MOIST ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT MAY LINGER IN THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY BUT DEEPER MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL SHIFT EASTWARD EARLY AND THE SHOWER CHANCE WILL DIMINISH. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 2PM. THIS MORNING...DYNAMIC STORM SYSTEM TO THE WEST CONTINUES TO PRODUCE STRONG STORMS AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS EASTERN AL/TN/CENTRAL GA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING FASTER THAN MODELS HAVE SHOWN. THE THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL INCREASE BY MIDDAY AS A LINE OF CONVECTION RE-INTENSIFIES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HAVE SPED UP POP TIMING BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS. HRRR AND RAP SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY HAVE BEEN A COUPLE OF HOURS BEHIND WITH TIMING ON THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS. TIMING IS DIURNALLY FAVORABLE WITH THE MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION EXPECTED TO REACH THE CSRA WITHIN THE 18Z TO 20Z TIME FRAME. CONVECTIVE ANALYSIS REVEALS MODERATE INSTABILITY BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH CAPE AROUND 1000 TO 1500 J/KG. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILES WITH 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR AROUND 30 TO 35 KNOTS. THE MAIN THREAT WILL LIKELY BE STRONG WINDS. TORNADO THREAT IN DISCRETE CELLS AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN ADDITION TO SMALL HAIL. THE NAM AND GFS SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASING TO NEAR 2 INCHES TOWARD THE END OF THE DAY WHICH INDICATES POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN PROMOTING SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS TODAY WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 TO 25 KNOTS. EXPECT A GRADIENT IN TEMPERATURES FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S WEST TO MIDDLE 80S EAST. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... MODELS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE SLOW WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE CURRENT ACTIVITY...BUT FOR THE MOST PART THE MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS EVENING...PROBABLY ALONG A PREFRONTAL TROUGH. INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT THE SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE STRONG. STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS WILL BE MOVING OVER THE FORECAST AREA...AND THIS WILL BE COUPLED WITH AN EVEN STRONGER MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET. MUCH OF THE ENERGY WILL BE PARALLEL TO THE MAIN UPPER FLOW...AND WHEN YOU ADD IN PW VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES THIS EVENING...WE CAN EXPECT PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. BULK OF THE ACTIVITY THIS EVENING WILL BE MOVING THROUGH BETWEEN 00Z-05Z...THEN EXPECT LIGHTER SHOWERS AND STORMS AS THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY MOVES EAST OF THE CWA. SHOWERS SHOULD LINGER OVERNIGHT...BUT CHANCES FOR RAINFALL WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH TOWARDS WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE MAIN FRONT MOVES INTO AND THROUGH THE REGION. TEMPERATURES NOT EXPECTED TO FALL MUCH THROUGH THE EVENING AND EVEN THROUGH MIDNIGHT. EXPECT BEST TEMPERATURE DROP TO BE AFTER MIDNIGHT ONCE THE MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA. FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN FRONT WILL BE PUSHING EAST OF THE CWA EARLY IN THE DAY...ALONG WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE. HOWEVER DUE TO THE MAIN UPPER LOW STILL WEST OF THE CWA...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE UPSTATE AND POSSIBLY EXTREME WESTERN CWA. EVEN SO...HAVE DRIED THE FORECAST OUT ACROSS THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS DURING THE DAY WILL BE COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH READINGS IN THE MIDDLE 70S. WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL SEE A DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN UP OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S...WITH ISOLATED SPOTS POSSIBLY REACHING THE UPPER 40S. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... LONGER TERM MODELS STILL INDICATING A DRY FORECAST PATTERN THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE LONGER TERM PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH RIDGING ALONG THE GULF COAST SHOULD DIRECT A DRY WESTERLY FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA EARLY. THE MODELS SHOW A WEAK FRONT WILL LITTLE CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE SATURDAY WITH RIDGING DOMINATING SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE GUIDANCE SUPPORTS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... RESTRICTIONS LIKELY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A LINE OF HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER AREA AFTER 12Z. MVFR AND BRIEF IFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE AS THE LINE SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS BY LATE MORNING. STRONG WIND GUSTS OF 25 KNOTS OR HIGHER ARE LIKELY WITH THE HEAVIER STORMS AND ALSO AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY PUSHING EAST ACROSS ALABAMA. FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS SC WILL OCCUR LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION TAPERING OFF. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS EAST. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED WITH A DRIER AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE AREA. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. GA...NONE. && $$ 99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
720 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST WILL DIRECT A MOIST ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT MAY LINGER IN THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY BUT DEEPER MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL SHIFT EASTWARD EARLY AND THE SHOWER CHANCE WILL DIMINISH. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 2PM. THIS MORNING...DYNAMIC STORM SYSTEM TO THE WEST CONTINUES TO PRODUCE STRONG STORMS AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS EASTERN AL/TN/CENTRAL GA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING FASTER THAN MODELS HAVE SHOWN. THE THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL INCREASE BY MIDDAY AS A LINE OF CONVECTION RE-INTENSIFIES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HAVE SPED UP POP TIMING BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS. HRRR AND RAP SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY HAVE BEEN A COUPLE OF HOURS BEHIND WITH TIMING ON THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS. TIMING IS DIURNALLY FAVORABLE WITH THE MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION EXPECTED TO REACH THE CSRA WITHIN THE 18Z TO 20Z TIME FRAME. CONVECTIVE ANALYSIS REVEALS MODERATE INSTABILITY BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH CAPE AROUND 1000 TO 1500 J/KG. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILES WITH 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR AROUND 30 TO 35 KNOTS. THE MAIN THREAT WILL LIKELY BE STRONG WINDS. TORNADO THREAT IN DISCRETE CELLS AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN ADDITION TO SMALL HAIL. THE NAM AND GFS SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASING TO NEAR 2 INCHES TOWARD THE END OF THE DAY WHICH INDICATES POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN PROMOTING SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS TODAY WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 TO 25 KNOTS. EXPECT A GRADIENT IN TEMPERATURES FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S WEST TO MIDDLE 80S EAST. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... MODELS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE SLOW WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE CURRENT ACTIVITY...BUT FOR THE MOST PART THE MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS EVENING...PROBABLY ALONG A PREFRONTAL TROUGH. INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT THE SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE STRONG. STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS WILL BE MOVING OVER THE FORECAST AREA...AND THIS WILL BE COUPLED WITH AN EVEN STRONGER MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET. MUCH OF THE ENERGY WILL BE PARALLEL TO THE MAIN UPPER FLOW...AND WHEN YOU ADD IN PW VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES THIS EVENING...WE CAN EXPECT PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. BULK OF THE ACTIVITY THIS EVENING WILL BE MOVING THROUGH BETWEEN 00Z-05Z...THEN EXPECT LIGHTER SHOWERS AND STORMS AS THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY MOVES EAST OF THE CWA. SHOWERS SHOULD LINGER OVERNIGHT...BUT CHANCES FOR RAINFALL WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH TOWARDS WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE MAIN FRONT MOVES INTO AND THROUGH THE REGION. TEMPERATURES NOT EXPECTED TO FALL MUCH THROUGH THE EVENING AND EVEN THROUGH MIDNIGHT. EXPECT BEST TEMPERATURE DROP TO BE AFTER MIDNIGHT ONCE THE MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA. FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN FRONT WILL BE PUSHING EAST OF THE CWA EARLY IN THE DAY...ALONG WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE. HOWEVER DUE TO THE MAIN UPPER LOW STILL WEST OF THE CWA...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE UPSTATE AND POSSIBLY EXTREME WESTERN CWA. EVEN SO...HAVE DRIED THE FORECAST OUT ACROSS THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS DURING THE DAY WILL BE COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH READINGS IN THE MIDDLE 70S. WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL SEE A DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN UP OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S...WITH ISOLATED SPOTS POSSIBLY REACHING THE UPPER 40S. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... LONGER TERM MODELS STILL INDICATING A DRY FORECAST PATTERN THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE LONGER TERM PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH RIDGING ALONG THE GULF COAST SHOULD DIRECT A DRY WESTERLY FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA EARLY. THE MODELS SHOW A WEAK FRONT WILL LITTLE CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE SATURDAY WITH RIDGING DOMINATING SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE GUIDANCE SUPPORTS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... RESTRICTIONS LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY MID MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE MORNING AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ALONG AND AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHING EAST. RESTRICTIONS LIKELY AS THE MAIN BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS PUSHES THROUGH. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. MODELS ARE ALSO INDICATING LLWS POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PROMOTE SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN THUNDERSTORMS. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS EAST. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED WITH A DRIER AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE AREA. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. GA...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
615 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST WILL DIRECT A MOIST ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT MAY LINGER IN THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY BUT DEEPER MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL SHIFT EASTWARD EARLY AND THE SHOWER CHANCE WILL DIMINISH. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... EARLY THIS MORNING...DYNAMIC STORM SYSTEM TO THE WEST CONTINUES TO PRODUCE STRONG STORMS AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS EASTERN AL/TN/CENTRAL GA EARLY THIS MORNING. ACROSS THE CAROLINAS A SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BRING MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE MOVING ONSHORE ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL PORTIONS OF SC THIS MORNING. WILL STILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH POPS INCREASING TOWARDS DAWN AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE WEST MOVES IN AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES. CLOUD COVER AND STRONG LOW LEVEL JET KEEPING THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED WILL RESULT IN MILD MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70. TODAY...THE SHOWER CHANCE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE IN THE WARM ADVECTION PATTERN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT THIS MORNING. THE THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL INCREASE BY MIDDAY AS A LINE OF CONVECTION RE-INTENSIFIES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HAVE SPED UP POP TIMING BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS. HRRR AND RAP SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY HAVE BEEN A COUPLE OF HOURS BEHIND WITH TIMING ON THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS. TIMING IS DIURNALLY FAVORABLE WITH THE MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION EXPECTED TO REACH THE CSRA WITHIN THE 18Z TO 20Z TIME FRAME. CONVECTIVE ANALYSIS REVEALS MODERATE INSTABILITY BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH CAPE AROUND 1000 TO 1500 J/KG. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILES WITH 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR AROUND 30 TO 35 KNOTS. THE MAIN THREAT WILL LIKELY BE STRONG WINDS. TORNADO THREAT IN DISCRETE CELLS AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN ADDITION TO SMALL HAIL. THE NAM AND GFS SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASING TO NEAR 2 INCHES TOWARD THE END OF THE DAY WHICH INDICATES POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN PROMOTING SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS TODAY WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 TO 25 KNOTS. EXPECT A GRADIENT IN TEMPERATURES FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S WEST TO MIDDLE 80S EAST. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... MODELS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE SLOW WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE CURRENT ACTIVITY...BUT FOR THE MOST PART THE MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS EVENING...PROBABLY ALONG A PREFRONTAL TROUGH. INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT THE SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE STRONG. STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS WILL BE MOVING OVER THE FORECAST AREA...AND THIS WILL BE COUPLED WITH AN EVEN STRONGER MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET. MUCH OF THE ENERGY WILL BE PARALLEL TO THE MAIN UPPER FLOW...AND WHEN YOU ADD IN PW VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES THIS EVENING...WE CAN EXPECT PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. BULK OF THE ACTIVITY THIS EVENING WILL BE MOVING THROUGH BETWEEN 00Z-05Z...THEN EXPECT LIGHTER SHOWERS AND STORMS AS THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY MOVES EAST OF THE CWA. SHOWERS SHOULD LINGER OVERNIGHT...BUT CHANCES FOR RAINFALL WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH TOWARDS WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE MAIN FRONT MOVES INTO AND THROUGH THE REGION. TEMPERATURES NOT EXPECTED TO FALL MUCH THROUGH THE EVENING AND EVEN THROUGH MIDNIGHT. EXPECT BEST TEMPERATURE DROP TO BE AFTER MIDNIGHT ONCE THE MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA. FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN FRONT WILL BE PUSHING EAST OF THE CWA EARLY IN THE DAY...ALONG WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE. HOWEVER DUE TO THE MAIN UPPER LOW STILL WEST OF THE CWA...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE UPSTATE AND POSSIBLY EXTREME WESTERN CWA. EVEN SO...HAVE DRIED THE FORECAST OUT ACROSS THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS DURING THE DAY WILL BE COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH READINGS IN THE MIDDLE 70S. WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL SEE A DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN UP OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S...WITH ISOLATED SPOTS POSSIBLY REACHING THE UPPER 40S. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... LONGER TERM MODELS STILL INDICATING A DRY FORECAST PATTERN THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE LONGER TERM PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH RIDGING ALONG THE GULF COAST SHOULD DIRECT A DRY WESTERLY FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA EARLY. THE MODELS SHOW A WEAK FRONT WILL LITTLE CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE SATURDAY WITH RIDGING DOMINATING SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE GUIDANCE SUPPORTS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. && .AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... RESTRICTIONS LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN FLUCTUATING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS INITIAL STRATUS LAYER RETREATED. CEILINGS MAY ONCE AGAIN LOWER TOWARD DAYBREAK AS SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW PULLS IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. DO NOT EXPECT ANY FOG AS SURFACE WINDS HAVE INCREASED THIS MORNING. INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE MORNING AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ALONG AND AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHING EAST. RESTRICTIONS LIKELY AS THE MAIN BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS PUSHES THROUGH. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. MODELS ARE ALSO INDICATING LLWS POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PROMOTE SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN THUNDERSTORMS. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS EAST. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED WITH A DRIER AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE AREA. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. GA...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
231 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014 .EARLY MORNING UPDATE... THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LINE OF STORMS APPROACHING THE NW GA STATE LINE IS WEAKENING DUE TO LACK OF INSTABILITY AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE. THEREFORE... HAVE REMOVED HEARD... COWETA... FAYETTE... CLAYTON... DEKALB AND COUNTIES NORTHWARD FROM THE TOR WATCH AS THIS THREAT HAS GREATLY DIMINISHED. WILL HOLD ONTO THE TOR WATCH FOR CHATTAHOOCHEE... HARRIS... MERIWETHER... MUSCOGEE... STEWART AND TROUP FOR AWHILE LONGER AS THE GREATER INSTABILITIES ARE STILL POOLED IN THIS AREA. ALTHOUGH THE WATCH HAS BEEN DROPPED FOR NW GA... BE ADVISED... STRONG TO POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE AS THIS LINE OF STORMS MOVE ACROSS NW GA THIS MORNING. /39 .UPDATE... /ISSUED AT 1024 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2014/ THE LATEST HRRR 3KM MODEL RUN CONTINUES TO SHOW THE FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS MOVING INTO NORTH AND WEST GA AS EARLY AS 2 AM EDT TUE. THE MAIN SQUALL LINE NOW IN CENTRAL AL SHOULD APPROACH THE GA STATE LINE BY 6 AM EDT MOVING ACROSS GA THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECTED WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITH ISOLATED SEVERE TSTMS AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS UPWARD 5 TO 10 PERCENT TO MATCH UP BETTER WITH EXPECTED QPF AMOUNTS. && 16 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 810 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2014/ ..SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH STRONG DAMAGING WINDS...ISOLATED TORNADOES...AND FLASH FLOODING AS MAIN THREATS WITH TWO ROUNDS OF STORMS EARLY MORNING TUESDAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON... SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM CONTINUES TO BE ROBUST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST TWO WAVES OF ACTIVITY WITH THE FIRST OF TWO SQUALL LINES MOVING IN EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH A SECONDARY LINE PUSHING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FOR THE FIRST WAVE...MODEL CONSENSUS PUSHES THE LINE OF STORMS ACROSS THE GA/AL LINE BETWEEN 4 AND 6 AM. A FEW MODELS SUGGEST SOME ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THIS FIRST SQUALL LINE COULD BEGIN AS EARLY AS 2 AM. CONFIDENCE WITH THIS ACTIVITY IS MEDIUM GIVEN QUESTIONS THAT STILL EXIST ON THE TIMING...AVAILABLE INGREDIENTS...AND OVERALL INTENSITY. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT CONVECTION DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTH WILL CUT OFF THE FLOW OF NECESSARY INGREDIENTS FARTHER NORTH. REGARDLESS...GIVEN 950 MB WINDS...AMPLE SRH...AND EVEN MODEST CAPE...EXPECT DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES TO BE THE MAIN CONCERNS...PARTICULARLY IN BOWING PORTIONS OF THE LINE OR IN DISCRETE STORMS DEVELOPING OUT AHEAD OF IT. AS OF NOW SPC DOES HAVE THE ENTIRE ARE OUTLOOKED IN A SLIGHT RISK THROUGH THE DAY. HAVE CONTINUED WITH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS BEGINNING IN THE NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE BY 06Z AND PROGRESSING EASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING. THE SECOND SQUALL LINE LOOKS TO PUSH INTO WESTERN GEORGIA BY 16-17Z /11-12PM/ AND MOVE INTO THE ATL METRO AREA BY 2-3PM. MODELS DIFFER SOMEWHAT ON THE LEVEL OF CLEARING BETWEEN THE TWO LINES...WITH SEVERAL MODELS ADVERTISING ENOUGH COULD COVER AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO SIGNIFICANTLY LIMIT THE INSTABILITY FOR THE SECOND SQUALL LINE. HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT AS THIS LINE PUSHES THROUGH THE CWA DURING PRIME HEATING TIME /MID-LATE AFTERNOON/ THAT WITH A BETTER SUPPLY OF AVAILABLE INSTABILITIES AND INGREDIENTS...WITH RISK OF SEVERE STORMS APPEARS GREATER. SOUTHERLY FLOW ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE LINES OF ACTIVITY WILL KEEP THE CONVECTION FROM PROGRESSING QUICKLY. EXPECT THAT IN SLOW MOVING STORMS WILL DUMP HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE SAME AREA...RESULTING IN POTENTIAL FLOODING. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR 2 AM TUESDAY TO 2 AM WEDNESDAY FOR PORTIONS OF NW AND NORTHERN GEORGIA. SEE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS. WINDS OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION WILL STILL REMAIN HIGH...WITH SPEEDS OF 10-15 MPH AND GUSTS TO 25 MPH. PLEASE KEEP IN MIND THE TIMING OF THESE STORMS...PARTICULARLY THAT MODELS SHOW SOME OF THE HIGHEST RISK DURING MORNING AND AFTERNOON RUSH HOUR. 31 LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... SOME SUBTLE DISCREPANCIES LATE IN THE PERIOD TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND THOUGH NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO CHANGE FORECAST. MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE LONG TERM PERIOD. BAKER && .AVIATION... 06Z UPDATE... MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF SQUALL LINE THAT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE ATLANTA TAF SITES BETWEEN 09-12Z THIS MORNING. HIRES MODELS SHOW A SECOND LINE OF STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT... AND THIS LINE MAY PUSH ACROSS THE ATLANTA TAF SITES BETWEEN 16-19Z TODAY... BUT STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON THIS SECOND LINE AT THIS TIME. EXPECT CIGS TO OCCASIONALLY LOWER TO IFR LEVELS WITH THE STRONGER CONVECTION... BUT MVFR CIGS SHOULD PREVAIL UNTIL IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED TO VFR AFTER THE COLD FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT WRAP AROUND CLOUDS TO SPREAD MVFR CIGS BACK INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT... MAYBE AROUND 07-10Z WED. OTHERWISE... WINDS WILL BE SSE AROUND 10G20KTS THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING... THEN VEER SSW BY EARLY AFTERNOON... THEN WESTERLY BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT. //ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE... MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS. 39 && .HYDROLOGY... /ISSUED AT 810 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2014/ EARLY TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY QPF IS ABOVE 2 INCHES ACROSS NORTH AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WITH 1-1.5 FROM THE SE ATL METRO AREA THROUGH MACON...AND BELOW 1 INCH FARTHER SE. DUE TO THE RAINFALL NORTHERN GEORGIA HAS OBSERVED OVER THE LAST WEEK...THIS AREA IS ALREADY PRIMED FOR POSSIBLE FLOODING ISSUES. FFG IS LOWER IN THIS AREA...AND SO HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NW GEORGIA COUNTIES. SITE SPECIFIC MODELS INDICATE THAT WITH THE FORECAST AMOUNT OF PRECIP...SEVERAL RIVERS COULD SEE BANKFULL OR MINOR FLOODING CONDITIONS...PARTICULARLY IN THE CONASAUGA RIVER AND LOOKOUT CREEK BASINS. 31 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... ATHENS 67 73 56 70 / 70 100 90 20 ATLANTA 67 74 56 69 / 100 100 40 10 BLAIRSVILLE 62 70 51 65 / 100 100 70 30 CARTERSVILLE 68 74 53 68 / 100 100 40 20 COLUMBUS 71 77 56 75 / 90 100 30 10 GAINESVILLE 66 71 55 67 / 90 100 60 30 MACON 71 78 56 77 / 70 100 60 10 ROME 68 75 52 67 / 100 100 20 20 PEACHTREE CITY 69 75 52 69 / 100 100 40 10 VIDALIA 70 82 65 78 / 20 80 80 10 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CHATTAHOOCHEE...HARRIS... MERIWETHER... MUSCOGEE... STEWART AND TROUP. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BARTOW...CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...CHEROKEE...DADE...FANNIN...DAWSON... FLOYD... GILMER... GORDON... MURRAY... LUMPKIN... PICKENS... POLK... TOWNS... UNION... WALKER... WHITE... WHITFIELD. FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 AM EDT TUESDAY THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BARTOW...CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA... CHEROKEE...DADE...FANNIN...FLOYD...GILMER...GORDON...MURRAY... PICKENS...TOWNS...UNION...WALKER...WHITFIELD. && $$ SHORT TERM...16/39 LONG TERM....SNELSON AVIATION...39
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
103 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014 .UPDATE... THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW. && .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 237 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014 TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ARE GOING TO DOMINATE INDIANA WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE FIRST WAS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING. IT IS PREDICTED TO SHOW ALMOST NO MOVEMENT UNTIL THURSDAY WHEN IT SHOULD DISSIPATE. SHORTLY THEREAFTER...A SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS GOING TO DEVELOP FROM WESTERN ONTARIO ACROSS INDIANA...TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. NOT MUCH CHANGE WILL OCCUR UNTIL MONDAY...WHEN HIGH PRESSURE OUGHT TO MOVE ACROSS THE HOOSIER STATE FROM THE WEST. && .NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/... ISSUED AT 949 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014 FOR THE MORNING UPDATE...INCREASED POPS NORTHEAST AND DECREASED THEM IN THE SOUTHEAST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO BETTER MATCH RADAR OBS. FOR THE AFTERNOON HRRR AND RAP ARE BOTH DEPICTING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS ONCE THIS INITIAL WAVE MOVES OUT. HOWEVER THERE IS ANOTHER WEAKER WAVE THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER LOW THIS AFTERNOON SO WENT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND RETAINED SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER THROUGH 0Z WITH SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY AVAILABLE. DECREASED TEMPERATURES TO HIGHS IN THE MID 60S ACROSS THE AREA WITH EXPECTED BROKEN TO OVERCAST CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY AND COLD ADVECTION AT 850 MB AND ALL LATEST OPERATIONAL MODELS GOING COLDER THAN GOING FORECAST. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... ISSUED AT 237 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014 POPS REMAIN THE MAIN ISSUE. GUIDANCE POPS TONIGHT DECLINE FROM WEST TO EAST. THIS SUGGESTS THEY EXPECT SOMETHING TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AND THEN GRADUALLY DISSIPATE. THATS WHAT HAPPENED YESTERDAY INTO THIS MORNING. THIS MAKES SENSE WITH ALL MODELS HAVING A FRONT TO OUR WEST BY EVENING. BEYOND THAT PRESSURE ADVECTION ON THE 1.5 POTENTIAL VORTICITY SURFACE SUGGESTS UPWARD FORCING WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN CWA PAST 00Z. GIVEN THAT LIKELY POPS LOOK GOOD IN THE NORTHEAST AS WELL AS THE WEST. THE SOUTHEAST IS GOING TO BE FARTHER AWAY FROM THE FORCING SO CHANCE POPS SHOULD SUFFICE THERE. BY WEDNESDAY A FRONT IS LIKELY TO BE RIGHT OVER THE CWA. WHILE DAYTIME HEATING IS APT TO BE MEAGER...IT WILL BE COMBINED WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT. THE HIGHS POPS FROM BOTH FORMS OF GUIDANCE LOOK GOOD. THERE IS DECENT MODEL CONSENSUS AN UPPER LOW OVER OUR AREA WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...REDUCING THE CHANCE OF RAIN. HOWEVER THERE IS ALSO MODEL CONSENSUS CYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW WILL PERSIST. THIS OPENS POSSIBILITY OF EMBEDDED TROUGHS CAUSING CONVERGENCE. A SLIGHT CHANCE SHOULD BE RETAINED FOR BOTH PERIODS. WITH THE ALREADY MENTIONED FRONT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE OVER THE CWA LATE NIGHT...TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN TODAY. THE GUIDANCE IS CLOSE AND WELL SUPPORTED BY THE DETERMINISTIC TEMPERATURE FIELDS. THERE IS NO REASON TO CHANGE THE MOS. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014 THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSITION INTO SOME WEAK TROUGHING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. HOWEVER...GFS AND EURO ARE IN AGREEMENT IN REGARD TO SYSTEM STAYING TOO FAR NORTH FOR ANY PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. AS A RESULT...WILL KEEP THE DRY FORECAST FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON THAT LATEST INITIALIZATION PRODUCED. FURTHER OUT...MODELS BECOME INCONSISTENT...AND REGIONAL INITIALIZATION IS STRUGGLING WITH LOCATION OF PRECIP CHANCES FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. OVERALL...THE INITIALIZATION SEEMS TO BE TRENDING TOWARD THE EURO AND A WEAK UPPER TROUGH BRINGING LIGHT PRECIP TO PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE...THE GFS IS SHOWING NO INDICATIONS OF AN UPPER TROUGH DURING THAT TIME PERIOD AND FAVORS SUBSIDENCE OVER CENTRAL INDIANA. WILL NOT MAKE CHANGES TO INITIALIZATION AT THIS TIME UNTIL MODELS SHOW BETTER AGREEMENT. TEMPS WILL START OUT ABOVE NORMAL WITH WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL PUT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S. HOWEVER...TEMPS WILL FALL CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS SURFACE WINDS TAKE ON MORE OF A NORTHWESTERLY COMPONENT. THIS MEANS HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S. && .AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 141800Z TAF ISSUANCE/... ISSUED AT 1256 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014 CEILINGS WILL LIKELY BOUNCE BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SO WILL GO WITH PREVAILING HIGH END MVFR. POP UP SHOWERS ARE PROBABLE BUT WITH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING PLACEMENT AND BRIEF NATURE WILL JUST INCLUDE VCSH FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TONIGHT DOWN TO IFR/LIFR WITH BOTH CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES DROPPING WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE UPPER LOW DRAWING CLOSER. THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS AROUND TONIGHT BUT NOT HIGH ENOUGH PROBABILITY TO INCLUDE. SHOWERS BECOME MORE LIKELY WEDNESDAY BY LATE MORNING WITH THE UPPER LOW OVERHEAD AND SOME DAYTIME HEATING SO INCLUDED VCSH DURING THAT TIME. WIND GUSTS SHOULD LAST THROUGH AROUND 0-3Z BEFORE DROPPING OFF TONIGHT AND DO NOT EXPECT GUSTS WEDNESDAY. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JK NEAR TERM...CP SHORT TERM...JK LONG TERM....TDUD AVIATION...CP VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1031 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014 .UPDATE... THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW. && .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 237 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014 TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ARE GOING TO DOMINATE INDIANA WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE FIRST WAS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING. IT IS PREDICTED TO SHOW ALMOST NO MOVEMENT UNTIL THURSDAY WHEN IT SHOULD DISSIPATE. SHORTLY THEREAFTER...A SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS GOING TO DEVELOP FROM WESTERN ONTARIO ACROSS INDIANA...TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. NOT MUCH CHANGE WILL OCCUR UNTIL MONDAY...WHEN HIGH PRESSURE OUGHT TO MOVE ACROSS THE HOOSIER STATE FROM THE WEST. && .NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/... ISSUED AT 949 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014 FOR THE MORNING UPDATE...INCREASED POPS NORTHEAST AND DECREASED THEM IN THE SOUTHEAST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO BETTER MATCH RADAR OBS. FOR THE AFTERNOON HRRR AND RAP ARE BOTH DEPICTING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS ONCE THIS INITIAL WAVE MOVES OUT. HOWEVER THERE IS ANOTHER WEAKER WAVE THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER LOW THIS AFTERNOON SO WENT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND RETAINED SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER THROUGH 0Z WITH SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY AVAILABLE. DECREASED TEMPERATURES TO HIGHS IN THE MID 60S ACROSS THE AREA WITH EXPECTED BROKEN TO OVERCAST CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY AND COLD ADVECTION AT 850 MB AND ALL LATEST OPERATIONAL MODELS GOING COLDER THAN GOING FORECAST. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... ISSUED AT 237 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014 POPS REMAIN THE MAIN ISSUE. GUIDANCE POPS TONIGHT DECLINE FROM WEST TO EAST. THIS SUGGESTS THEY EXPECT SOMETHING TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AND THEN GRADUALLY DISSIPATE. THATS WHAT HAPPENED YESTERDAY INTO THIS MORNING. THIS MAKES SENSE WITH ALL MODELS HAVING A FRONT TO OUR WEST BY EVENING. BEYOND THAT PRESSURE ADVECTION ON THE 1.5 POTENTIAL VORTICITY SURFACE SUGGESTS UPWARD FORCING WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN CWA PAST 00Z. GIVEN THAT LIKELY POPS LOOK GOOD IN THE NORTHEAST AS WELL AS THE WEST. THE SOUTHEAST IS GOING TO BE FARTHER AWAY FROM THE FORCING SO CHANCE POPS SHOULD SUFFICE THERE. BY WEDNESDAY A FRONT IS LIKELY TO BE RIGHT OVER THE CWA. WHILE DAYTIME HEATING IS APT TO BE MEAGER...IT WILL BE COMBINED WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT. THE HIGHS POPS FROM BOTH FORMS OF GUIDANCE LOOK GOOD. THERE IS DECENT MODEL CONSENSUS AN UPPER LOW OVER OUR AREA WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...REDUCING THE CHANCE OF RAIN. HOWEVER THERE IS ALSO MODEL CONSENSUS CYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW WILL PERSIST. THIS OPENS POSSIBILITY OF EMBEDDED TROUGHS CAUSING CONVERGENCE. A SLIGHT CHANCE SHOULD BE RETAINED FOR BOTH PERIODS. WITH THE ALREADY MENTIONED FRONT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE OVER THE CWA LATE NIGHT...TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN TODAY. THE GUIDANCE IS CLOSE AND WELL SUPPORTED BY THE DETERMINISTIC TEMPERATURE FIELDS. THERE IS NO REASON TO CHANGE THE MOS. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014 THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSITION INTO SOME WEAK TROUGHING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. HOWEVER...GFS AND EURO ARE IN AGREEMENT IN REGARD TO SYSTEM STAYING TOO FAR NORTH FOR ANY PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. AS A RESULT...WILL KEEP THE DRY FORECAST FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON THAT LATEST INITIALIZATION PRODUCED. FURTHER OUT...MODELS BECOME INCONSISTENT...AND REGIONAL INITIALIZATION IS STRUGGLING WITH LOCATION OF PRECIP CHANCES FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. OVERALL...THE INITIALIZATION SEEMS TO BE TRENDING TOWARD THE EURO AND A WEAK UPPER TROUGH BRINGING LIGHT PRECIP TO PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE...THE GFS IS SHOWING NO INDICATIONS OF AN UPPER TROUGH DURING THAT TIME PERIOD AND FAVORS SUBSIDENCE OVER CENTRAL INDIANA. WILL NOT MAKE CHANGES TO INITIALIZATION AT THIS TIME UNTIL MODELS SHOW BETTER AGREEMENT. TEMPS WILL START OUT ABOVE NORMAL WITH WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL PUT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S. HOWEVER...TEMPS WILL FALL CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS SURFACE WINDS TAKE ON MORE OF A NORTHWESTERLY COMPONENT. THIS MEANS HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S. && .AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 14/15Z TAF ISSUANCE/... ISSUED AT 1031 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014 PREVIOUSLY ADDED SOME EXPLICIT SHOWER MENTIONS BUT THOSE SHOULD BE MOVING OUT OF THE SITES OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO IF THEY HAVEN/T ALREADY. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY VCSH AS SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. COULD SEE LOW MVFR LIFT TO HIGHER END MVFR OR EVEN VFR FOR A BRIEF PERIOD LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SO RAISED TO HIGHER MVFR WHERE LOWER END WAS GOING. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH OF ANY PROLONGED STRETCH OF VFR THOUGH SO LEFT THAT OUT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS... WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL IMPACT ALL TAF SITES TODAY AS UPPER LOW APPROACHES CENTRAL INDIANA. ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT CHANCES ARE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. MVFR WILL BE THE PREVAILING FLIGHT CATEGORY THROUGH THE DAY AND EVENING HOURS...BUT CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE FURTHER TONIGHT AS CORE OF UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS FROM WED 06Z THROUGH END OF TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE STRONG OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 12 TO 14 KTS...GUSTING TO 24 KTS THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...THEN TAPERING OFF AND BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY AROUND WED 00Z. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JK NEAR TERM...CP SHORT TERM...JK LONG TERM....TDUD AVIATION...TDUD/CP VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
956 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014 .UPDATE... THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW. && .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 237 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014 TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ARE GOING TO DOMINATE INDIANA WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE FIRST WAS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING. IT IS PREDICTED TO SHOW ALMOST NO MOVEMENT UNTIL THURSDAY WHEN IT SHOULD DISSIPATE. SHORTLY THEREAFTER...A SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS GOING TO DEVELOP FROM WESTERN ONTARIO ACROSS INDIANA...TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. NOT MUCH CHANGE WILL OCCUR UNTIL MONDAY...WHEN HIGH PRESSURE OUGHT TO MOVE ACROSS THE HOOSIER STATE FROM THE WEST. && .NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/... ISSUED AT 949 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014 FOR THE MORNING UPDATE...INCREASED POPS NORTHEAST AND DECREASED THEM IN THE SOUTHEAST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO BETTER MATCH RADAR OBS. FOR THE AFTERNOON HRRR AND RAP ARE BOTH DEPICTING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS ONCE THIS INITIAL WAVE MOVES OUT. HOWEVER THERE IS ANOTHER WEAKER WAVE THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER LOW THIS AFTERNOON SO WENT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND RETAINED SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER THROUGH 0Z WITH SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY AVAILABLE. DECREASED TEMPERATURES TO HIGHS IN THE MID 60S ACROSS THE AREA WITH EXPECTED BROKEN TO OVERCAST CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY AND COLD ADVECTION AT 850 MB AND ALL LATEST OPERATIONAL MODELS GOING COLDER THAN GOING FORECAST. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... ISSUED AT 237 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014 POPS REMAIN THE MAIN ISSUE. GUIDANCE POPS TONIGHT DECLINE FROM WEST TO EAST. THIS SUGGESTS THEY EXPECT SOMETHING TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AND THEN GRADUALLY DISSIPATE. THATS WHAT HAPPENED YESTERDAY INTO THIS MORNING. THIS MAKES SENSE WITH ALL MODELS HAVING A FRONT TO OUR WEST BY EVENING. BEYOND THAT PRESSURE ADVECTION ON THE 1.5 POTENTIAL VORTICITY SURFACE SUGGESTS UPWARD FORCING WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN CWA PAST 00Z. GIVEN THAT LIKELY POPS LOOK GOOD IN THE NORTHEAST AS WELL AS THE WEST. THE SOUTHEAST IS GOING TO BE FARTHER AWAY FROM THE FORCING SO CHANCE POPS SHOULD SUFFICE THERE. BY WEDNESDAY A FRONT IS LIKELY TO BE RIGHT OVER THE CWA. WHILE DAYTIME HEATING IS APT TO BE MEAGER...IT WILL BE COMBINED WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT. THE HIGHS POPS FROM BOTH FORMS OF GUIDANCE LOOK GOOD. THERE IS DECENT MODEL CONSENSUS AN UPPER LOW OVER OUR AREA WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...REDUCING THE CHANCE OF RAIN. HOWEVER THERE IS ALSO MODEL CONSENSUS CYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW WILL PERSIST. THIS OPENS POSSIBILITY OF EMBEDDED TROUGHS CAUSING CONVERGENCE. A SLIGHT CHANCE SHOULD BE RETAINED FOR BOTH PERIODS. WITH THE ALREADY MENTIONED FRONT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE OVER THE CWA LATE NIGHT...TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN TODAY. THE GUIDANCE IS CLOSE AND WELL SUPPORTED BY THE DETERMINISTIC TEMPERATURE FIELDS. THERE IS NO REASON TO CHANGE THE MOS. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014 THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSITION INTO SOME WEAK TROUGHING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. HOWEVER...GFS AND EURO ARE IN AGREEMENT IN REGARD TO SYSTEM STAYING TOO FAR NORTH FOR ANY PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. AS A RESULT...WILL KEEP THE DRY FORECAST FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON THAT LATEST INITIALIZATION PRODUCED. FURTHER OUT...MODELS BECOME INCONSISTENT...AND REGIONAL INITIALIZATION IS STRUGGLING WITH LOCATION OF PRECIP CHANCES FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. OVERALL...THE INITIALIZATION SEEMS TO BE TRENDING TOWARD THE EURO AND A WEAK UPPER TROUGH BRINGING LIGHT PRECIP TO PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE...THE GFS IS SHOWING NO INDICATIONS OF AN UPPER TROUGH DURING THAT TIME PERIOD AND FAVORS SUBSIDENCE OVER CENTRAL INDIANA. WILL NOT MAKE CHANGES TO INITIALIZATION AT THIS TIME UNTIL MODELS SHOW BETTER AGREEMENT. TEMPS WILL START OUT ABOVE NORMAL WITH WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL PUT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S. HOWEVER...TEMPS WILL FALL CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS SURFACE WINDS TAKE ON MORE OF A NORTHWESTERLY COMPONENT. THIS MEANS HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S. && .AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 14/12Z TAF ISSUANCE/... ISSUED AT 721 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014 WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL IMPACT ALL TAF SITES TODAY AS UPPER LOW APPROACHES CENTRAL INDIANA. ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT CHANCES ARE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. MVFR WILL BE THE PREVAILING FLIGHT CATEGORY THROUGH THE DAY AND EVENING HOURS...BUT CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE FURTHER TONIGHT AS CORE OF UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS FROM WED 06Z THROUGH END OF TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE STRONG OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 12 TO 14 KTS...GUSTING TO 24 KTS THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...THEN TAPERING OFF AND BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY AROUND WED 00Z. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JK NEAR TERM...CP SHORT TERM...JK LONG TERM....TDUD AVIATION...TDUD VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
204 PM MDT TUE OCT 14 2014 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 111 PM MDT TUE OCT 14 2014 EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW BLOCKY RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN ACROSS THE US...WITH AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE WESTER US THE DOMINATE FEATURE FOR OUR CWA. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE OVER OUR CWA WITH A WEAK LEE TROUGH BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER COLORADO. DUE TO THE STRONG RIDGE KEEPING CONDITIONS CLEAR AND DRY ACROSS OUR CWA...PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS ON MODERATING TEMPS AND POTENTIAL FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY. SOUTHERLY GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO TIGHTEN AS LEE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN WEDNESDAY...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING AROUND 25 MPH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPS SHOULD WARM TO THE UPPER 70S...POSSIBLY THE LOWER 80S. MODELS ARE TENDING TO ADVECT HIGHER TD VALUES NORTH WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW...HOWEVER IT APPEARS THE BETTER MOISTURE SHOULD BE CUT OFF TO THE SOUTH AT LEAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE AFTERNOON. MIXING HEIGHTS ARE SOMEWHAT LIMITED BY ELEVATED INVERSION...HOWEVER WE SHOULD STILL SEE TD VALUES MIX TO THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S IN THE WEST. RESULT WOULD BE RH VALUES RIGHT ABOVE 15 PERCENT. AFTER COORDINATION WITH PARTNERS CURRENT FUELS SHOULD SUPPORT EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH FOR ALL OF OUR CWA EXCEPT FOR GREELEY AND WICHITA COUNTIES. CONDITIONS WILL BE CLOSE TO CRITERIA...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN A 3HR CROSSOVER OF WIND/RH IS LOW SO A RED FLAG WARNING IS PLANNED DURING THIS UPDATE WEDNESDAY. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 204 PM MDT TUE OCT 14 2014 MAIN CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD IS NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY. A BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD SHALL LEAD TO LITTLE TO NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER THROUGHOUT. BEGINNING WITH THURSDAY...A STRONG...FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS TROUGH ALSO FORCES A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS TROUGH SHALL BE A SLIGHT COOLING OF TEMPERATURES...ALBEIT REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL...DRIER AIR AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS. FIRE WEATHER MAY BECOME A CONCERN FOR THURSDAY IF TEMPERATURES ARE WARMER AND DEWPOINTS LOWER THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO BRING SOME CONCERN THAT DRIER AIR ALOFT COULD MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE AND BRING MUCH LOWER HUMIDITIES. CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY NEAR 20 PERCENT AND WIND GUSTS 30-35 MPH. MADE SOME CALLS TO LOCAL FIRE WEATHER PARTNERS AND CONSENSUS SEEMS TO BE FUELS ARE CURED ENOUGH TO CARRY A FIRE THREAT. FOR NOW...WILL MENTION CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE HWO BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A WATCH. FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...EXPECTING QUIET WEATHER FOR THE MOST PART. FORECAST GUIDANCE IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A SYSTEM MOVING IN SUNDAY. THE SYSTEM IS FAIRLY WEAK AND MOST GUIDANCE ANTICIPATES A FURTHER SOUTH TRACK AND SLOWER PACE COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. WHILE A SHOWER OR TWO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT COMPLETELY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...DID NOT THINK THAT A PRECIP MENTION WAS REQUIRED. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES LOOKS TO BREAK DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THIS HAPPENS...A TROUGH REPLACES THE RIDGE AND BRINGS SOUTH WINDS AND HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT...PRIMING THE AREA FOR POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION BY MID-WEEK. THIS SYSTEM REPRESENTS THE NEXT BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AND POTENTIALLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IF TEMPERATURES/INSTABILITY ARE HIGH ENOUGH. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1110 AM MDT TUE OCT 14 2014 VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK WITH CLEAR SKIES PREVAILING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER BOTH TERMINALS TODAY WILL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS AROUND 5KT BECOMING VARIABLE EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD AND CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. SURFACE TROUGH BUILDING WEDNESDAY WILL RESULT IN WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASING TO AROUND 12KT AT BOTH TERMINALS BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DR LONG TERM...RRH AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
111 PM MDT TUE OCT 14 2014 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 111 PM MDT TUE OCT 14 2014 EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW BLOCKY RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN ACROSS THE US...WITH AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE WESTER US THE DOMINATE FEATURE FOR OUR CWA. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE OVER OUR CWA WITH A WEAK LEE TROUGH BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER COLORADO. DUE TO THE STRONG RIDGE KEEPING CONDITIONS CLEAR AND DRY ACROSS OUR CWA...PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS ON MODERATING TEMPS AND POTENTIAL FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY. SOUTHERLY GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO TIGHTEN AS LEE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN WEDNESDAY...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING AROUND 25 MPH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPS SHOULD WARM TO THE UPPER 70S...POSSIBLY THE LOWER 80S. MODELS ARE TENDING TO ADVECT HIGHER TD VALUES NORTH WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW...HOWEVER IT APPEARS THE BETTER MOISTURE SHOULD BE CUT OFF TO THE SOUTH AT LEAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE AFTERNOON. MIXING HEIGHTS ARE SOMEWHAT LIMITED BY ELEVATED INVERSION...HOWEVER WE SHOULD STILL SEE TD VALUES MIX TO THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S IN THE WEST. RESULT WOULD BE RH VALUES RIGHT ABOVE 15 PERCENT. AFTER COORDINATION WITH PARTNERS CURRENT FUELS SHOULD SUPPORT EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH FOR ALL OF OUR CWA EXCEPT FOR GREELEY AND WICHITA COUNTIES. CONDITIONS WILL BE CLOSE TO CRITERIA...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN A 3HR CROSSOVER OF WIND/RH IS LOW SO A RED FLAG WARNING IS PLANNED DURING THIS UPDATE WEDNESDAY. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 225 AM MDT TUE OCT 14 2014 THE NEXT MENTIONABLE WEATHER WILL BE WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS IN EASTERN COLORADO WITH A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT OF ABOUT 6 MB ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA...WHICH WILL LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS FOR MANY LOCATIONS. BECAUSE OF SURFACE GRADIENT SIGNATURE AND SOME HINT FROM GUIDANCE THAT THERE WOULD BE SOME AVAILABILITY OF WINDS ALOFT TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE...DECIDED TO UP WINDS A BIT COMPARED TO AVAILABLE GUIDANCE. HIGHER GUSTS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR DUE TO THE STRONGER WARM AIR ADVECTION AT THE SURFACE...WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS SOMETIME DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY...BRINGING SOME GUSTY WINDS UP TO 30 MPH ACROSS THE AREA. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE PLENTY OF DRY AIR ALOFT...SO LOWERED THE DEW POINTS SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POTENTIAL MIXING DOWN OF DRY AIR. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL NOT QUITE MEET CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS...SO NOT EXPECTING FIRE WEATHER PROBLEMS THURSDAY AT THIS TIME. COOLER AIR WILL FILL IN BEHIND THE FRONT...HOWEVER HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL IN THE MID 70S FOR THURSDAY. DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR FRIDAY ON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS REGION REMAINS UNDER BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. GOING INTO SUNDAY HOWEVER...MODELS(GFS/ECMWF) BRING WEAK SHORTWAVE ONSHORE FROM THE PACIFIC TRAVELING EAST OVER THE ROCKIES...EXITING INTO THE PLAINS REGION LATE SUNDAY RIGHT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO MONDAY MORNING. TIMING OF THIS SHORTWAVE INTO THE PLAINS REGION JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA PUTS BEST CHANCES FOR ANY -RW...OVER SOUTHERN ZONES. DAYTIMES HEATING COMBINED WITH SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER AREA WITH HIGHER DEWPTS(AFTERNOON HRS)...PUTS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA IN POSITION TO SEE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION. DRY WEATHER/SFC RIDGE THEN RETURNS FOR REST OF NEXT MONDAY/TUESDAY. FOR DAYTIME HIGHS/OVERNIGHT LOWS...OVERALL SUNNY/MSUNNY SKIES THRU FORECAST PERIOD WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY A FEW DEGREES. WILL GO WITH 60S FOR HIGHS AND LOW/MID 40S FOR LOWS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1110 AM MDT TUE OCT 14 2014 VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK WITH CLEAR SKIES PREVAILING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER BOTH TERMINALS TODAY WILL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS AROUND 5KT BECOMING VARIABLE EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD AND CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. SURFACE TROUGH BUILDING WEDNESDAY WILL RESULT IN WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASING TO AROUND 12KT AT BOTH TERMINALS BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DR LONG TERM...MK/JN AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1116 PM MDT MON OCT 13 2014 .SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 127 PM MDT MON OCT 13 2014 EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOWS LARGE CALE RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE WESTERN US INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN KS. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS BEGINNING TO BUILD INTO NORTHERN AND EASTERN COLORADO WITH A NORTH-SOUTH PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE OVER WESTERN KS. WINDS ALOFT ARE ALREADY SHOWING A DOWNWARD TREND...AND AS THE SURFACE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN WINDS WILL FOLLOW SUIT. WIND ADVISORY IS MARGINAL...HOWEVER I COULD SEE ANOTHER FEW HOURS WHERE GUSTS WILL BE AROUND 45 MPH. IT IS CLOSE ENOUGH THAT I DIDNT WANT TO EXPIRE THE ADVISORY EARLY...SO WILL ALLOW THE ADVISORY TO CONTINUE UNTIL WE SEE A MUCH MORE DEFINITE DOWNWARD TREND IN WIND SPEEDS. WITH CLEAR SKIES...DECREASING WINDS...AND LOW TD VALUES IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S WE WILL SEE VERY GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. AIR MARI MASS MAY BEGIN TO MODERATE SOME ALOFT...HOWEVER WE WILL STILL SEE OVERNIGHT LOWS AT LEAST IN THE MIDDLE 30S. RIVER VALLEYS AND OTHER LOW LYING/SHELTERED LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY SEE FROST...AND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR TEMPS TO BE EVEN COOLER THAN EXPECTED I DECIDED TO ISSUE FROST ADVISORY 06Z- 15Z TUE. TUESDAY...WITH STRONG RIDGING ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY...AND AIR MASS WILL SLOWLY MODERATE. HIGHS SHOULD BE SEASONAL WITH VALUES IN THE UPPER 60S (POSSIBLY LOWER 70S). .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 157 PM MDT MON OCT 13 2014 FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST...A RATHER BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN SETS UP IN THE FORM OF A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL. A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...LEAVING SLIGHTLY COOLER YET MARGINALLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN ITS WAKE. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED. AS FOR PRECIPITATION...A DRY FORECAST HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE CURRENT GFS RUN AND THE PREVIOUS EUROPEAN MODEL INDICATED A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH ON SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WAS PROJECTED TO BRING SOME SHOWERS...POSSIBLY A STORM OR TWO...TO LOCATIONS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70. THE CURRENT EUROPEAN MODEL RUN HAS BACKED OFF THAT SOLUTION AND...IN AGREEMENT WITH THE CANADIAN MODEL...HOLDS THE DISTURBANCE UP IN THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. IN COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES...DECIDED TO PULL INITIALIZED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1113 PM MDT MON OCT 13 2014 VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KGLD AND KMCK FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO HIGH PRESSURE AND SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION. LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND WILL BECOME VARIABLE IN DIRECTION TUESDAY EVENING. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MDT /10 AM CDT/ TUESDAY FOR KSZ001>003- 013-014-027-028-041-042. CO...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MDT TUESDAY FOR COZ090>092. NE...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MDT /10 AM CDT/ TUESDAY FOR NEZ079>081. && $$ SHORT TERM...DR LONG TERM...RRH AVIATION...FS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
208 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 201 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014 SECOND LINE OF RAIN SHOWERS IS CURRENTLY SLOWLY TREKKING ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WHILE SOME OF THESE SHOWERS ARE SHOWING UP MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES ON THE RADAR...THE RATES AND TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE STILL QUITE LOW COMPARED TO WHAT WAS ORIGINALLY THOUGHT. LONDON ASOS JUST REPORTED HALF AN INCH OF RAIN IN THE LAST HOUR...WHICH IS PRETTY GOOD...BUT NO WHERE NEAR THE HIGHER AMOUNTS THAT WERE ORIGINALLY EXPECTED. AS SUCH...THE THREAT OF THERE BEING ANY FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE CWA IS ACTUALLY QUITE LOW. MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THE AMOUNT OF RAIN THAT IS FALLING...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW POOR DRAINAGE AREAS WHICH WE MAY NEED TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR AS WARRANTED. AFTER COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...DECIDED TO GO AHEAD AND DROP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH ACROSS THE CWA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. UPDATE ISSUED AT 1018 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014 UPDATED THE FORECAST...MAINLY THE POPS...TO MAKE SURE THAT ONGOING TRENDS WERE BETTER REFLECTED. CURRENTLY...AN AREA OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS IS SLOWLY MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA. THERE IS A BREAK IN THE ACTION ALONG THE WESTERN CWA BORDER...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ACTUAL FRONT CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL KY. THIS ONGOING SCENARIO IS ILL DEFINED IN ANY OF THE SHORT TERM MODELS...EXCEPT MAYBE THE HRRR WHICH IS STILL SEVERAL HOURS TOO SLOW. AS SUCH...WENT THROUGH THE POP GRIDS AND MANUALLY TWEAKED THEM HOUR BY HOUR TO BETTER SHOW THE TRENDS OF THE TWO LINES AND BREAK IN BETWEEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR IN CASE FURTHER UPDATES NEED TO BE MADE. ALSO...GIVEN THE LACK OF THUNDER FOR THIS EVENT ACROSS THE REGION...REDUCED THUNDER MENTION TO ONLY ISOLATED IN THE MOST WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS. EVEN THEN...DON/T KNOW IF WE WILL SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF THUNDER WITH THIS EVENT. ALSO LOADED IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA FOR TEMPS...DEW POINTS...AND WINDS...TO MAKE SURE THE NEAR TERM FORECAST WAS WELL ON TRACK WITH ONGOING CONDITIONS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 715 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014 FOR THE MOST PART...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. HOWEVER...HAVE FINE TUNED THE POPS FOR THE LINE OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. A SLIGHTLY QUICKER MOVEMENT OF THE LINE SEEMS TO BE THE CASE AND HAVE ADJUSTED POPS FOR THIS. THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE IN WESTERN KENTUCKY ALONG I-65 THIS HOUR AND LOOKS TO BE ARRIVING IN EASTERN KENTUCKY BY 18Z. FOR NOW...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AND THE HIGHER WIND GUSTS THREAT STILL LOOKS TO BE VALID. HAVE SENT OUT A NEW ZFP FOR THE POPS BEING ADJUSTED AND INPUT THE LATEST OBS. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014 CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE A LINE OF SHOWERS JUST ENTERING THE I-75 CORRIDOR AS HEAVY SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MOVE NORTH OUT OF TN INTO KY. THE GENERAL PROGRESSION OF THE LINE IS EASTWARD...THOUGH VERY SLOWLY. SOUTHEAST WINDS PERPENDICULAR ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS SEEMS TO BE CREATING A DOWN SLOPE EFFECT ON THE INCOMING RAINFALL AS IT CREEPS EAST. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE OVERCOME HEADING INTO THE MORNING HOURS. EVEN SO ADJUSTED THE POPS FOR A QUICKER EXIT TONIGHT AS THE DURATION APPEARS TO BE SHORTER. OBSERVATIONS SO FAR HAVE SHOWN WIND GUSTS GETTING INTO THE 30 TO 40 RANGE IN SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN. BECAUSE OF THIS...DECIDED TO CONTINUE WITH THE SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THE CONTINUED WIND THREAT. WHILE A FEW MORE BROKEN LINES OF STRONGER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THE MORNING HOURS...THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT IS MARGINAL FOR NOW. THIS MAY CHANGE HEADING INTO THE DAY WITH SOME HEATING AFTER DAYBREAK...PERHAPS ENOUGH FOR SOME INCREASED INSTABILITY BUT THE MAIN LINE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY ALREADY BE OVER MUCH OF EASTERN KENTUCKY BY THEN. THIS WILL NEED MONITORED HEADING INTO THE HOURS AFTER DAYBREAK TODAY...ESPECIALLY WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET OF 50 TO 60 KNOTS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ANY INCREASE IN INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH FOR THE LINE TO REORGANIZE. DESPITE THE LACK OF INSTABILITY...THE STRONG WIND THREAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF A PREFRONTAL TROUGH AND THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT THIS EVENING. THE ACTUAL FRONT MOVING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WILL PROVIDE A SECONDARY CONCERN FOR WINDS BUT ALSO FOR MORE HEAVY RAINFALL. WITH THIS...WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS TODAY...HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING...AND THE STRONG WIND THREAT. THROUGH THIS EVENING THE NAM AND GFS ARE SUGGESTING AN EARLIER EXIT WHICH MAY RESULT IN A NEED TO EXPIRE PRODUCTS A BIT EARLIER BUT ASSESS THIS LATER IN THE DAY. THIS APPEARS TO BE THE FORECAST CHALLENGE AS WHEN THIS FRONT EXITS. MODELS STILL AGREE WITH THE SCENARIO OF THE LINGERING UPPER LOW AND WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT AND ALSO FOR WEDNESDAY DUE TO THIS. TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL FEATURE A BREAK IN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AS THE DRY SLOT WILL BE OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY BEFORE A SECONDARY TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS. FOR NOW...SOME INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT IN THE AFTERNOON BUT WITH 200 J/KG...EXPECTING SHOWERS TO BE THE CASE. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 420 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014 THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM MEXICO NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO UPPER MS VALLEY REGION AND A CLOSED LOW OVER THE OH VALLEY REGION TO ITS EAST. THE AXIS OF THIS CLOSED LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS EAST KY ON WED NIGHT...WITH THE CLOSED LOW EXPECTED TO DEPART TO THE NORTHEAST GRADUALLY ON THU. THE RIDGE INITIALLY IN PLACE OVER THE PLAINS SHOULD WORK EAST AND WEAKEN/FLATTEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. THE PATTERN SHOULD GRADUALLY EVOLVE TO PATTERN WITH GENERALLY A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NORTH INTO THE ROCKIES AND A TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA SOUTH INTO THE EASTERN CONUS FROM THE WEEKEND THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. A FEW SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS TROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE SHOULD WORK ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND TN VALLEY REGIONS ON FRI NIGHT. THE 0Z ECMWF AND 0Z GFS THEN DIFFER WITH HEIGHTS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH THE GFS MORE CLOSED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND CONSOLIDATED...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE AND BRINGS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE INTO THE OH VALLEY FROM SAT INTO SAT EVENING. MODELS GENERALLY HAVE HEIGHT RISES AND WEAK RIDGING FOR SUNDAY...WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE OH VALLEY LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE PERIOD SHOULD BEGIN RATHER UNSETTLED WITH SHOWERS ANTICIPATED AS MODELS BRING RATHER DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION ON WED NIGHT INTO EARLY ON THU. WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND THE COLD AIR ALOFT...BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FOR THU. SOME CLEARING SHOULD TAKE PLACE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS FOR LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WITH MODERATION IN THE AIRMASS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THIS COLD FRONT WILL WORK ACROSS THE AREA FROM LATE FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. THIS FRONT WILL PROBABLY BRING NOT MUCH MORE THAN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A SPRINKLE OR TWO. THE ECMWF IS COLDER WITH THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY BY THE TIME IT BRINGS MUCH LOWER HEIGHTS ACROSS THE AREA ON SAT WITH THE STRONGER SHORTWAVE. THE MODEL BLEND OF TEMPS AND POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT FROM LATE FRI INTO SAT NIGHT SEEMED TO BE THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION AT THIS POINT. BY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT...WITH THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS BEST AFTER THE END OF THE PERIOD. MODEL DO DIFFER WITH TEMPS AT THAT POINT...THOUGH...WITH THE MODEL BLEND FAVORED WHICH WAS IN LINE WITH RECENT ECMWF MOS TEMPS. THIS LEANED TEMPS MORE TOWARD THE TYPICALLY MORE RELIABLE FOR THAT TIME RANGE ECMWF. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 205 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014 ANOTHER LINE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH EASTERN KY THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ALONG AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT. CEILINGS AND VIS COULD BRIEFLY DROP AS THE LINE MOVES ACROSS THE TAF SITES...WITH MVFR OR VERY BRIEF IFR EXPECTED. SO FAR...THERE HAS BEEN NO LIGHTNING SHOWING UP ON THE RADAR...SO EXPECT TAF SITES TO REMAIN THUNDERSTORM FREE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS WELL. THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE THE CONTINUED WIND GUSTS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. EXPECT GUSTS OUT OF THE S AND SW BETWEEN 15 AND 30 KNOTS AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING UNTIL THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS CLEAR OF THE TAF SITE. WINDS SHOULD MAKE THE SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO MORE WESTERLY AFTER THE FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH A DISSIPATING TREND AFTER 00Z. SHOWERS WILL REMAIN OVER A FEW AREAS TONIGHT BUT SOME BRIEF CLEARING IS POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT. IF THIS DOES OCCUR...SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP AT THE SITES ALONG WITH SOME LOWER CEILINGS. THE ACTUAL LOW WILL BEGIN PASSING OVER THE REGION DURING THE DAY TOMORROW...BRINGING THE RETURN OF RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ088-118. && $$ UPDATE...JMW SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER LONG TERM...JP AVIATION...JMW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1019 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1018 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014 UPDATED THE FORECAST...MAINLY THE POPS...TO MAKE SURE THAT ONGOING TRENDS WERE BETTER REFLECTED. CURRENTLY...AN AREA OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS IS SLOWLY MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA. THERE IS A BREAK IN THE ACTION ALONG THE WESTERN CWA BORDER...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ACTUAL FRONT CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL KY. THIS ONGOING SCENARIO IS ILL DEFINED IN ANY OF THE SHORT TERM MODELS...EXCEPT MAYBE THE HRRR WHICH IS STILL SEVERAL HOURS TOO SLOW. AS SUCH...WENT THROUGH THE POP GRIDS AND MANUALLY TWEAKED THEM HOUR BY HOUR TO BETTER SHOW THE TRENDS OF THE TWO LINES AND BREAK IN BETWEEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR IN CASE FURTHER UPDATES NEED TO BE MADE. ALSO...GIVEN THE LACK OF THUNDER FOR THIS EVENT ACROSS THE REGION...REDUCED THUNDER MENTION TO ONLY ISOLATED IN THE MOST WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS. EVEN THEN...DON/T KNOW IF WE WILL SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF THUNDER WITH THIS EVENT. ALSO LOADED IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA FOR TEMPS...DEW POINTS...AND WINDS...TO MAKE SURE THE NEAR TERM FORECAST WAS WELL ON TRACK WITH ONGOING CONDITIONS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 715 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014 FOR THE MOST PART...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. HOWEVER...HAVE FINE TUNED THE POPS FOR THE LINE OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. A SLIGHTLY QUICKER MOVEMENT OF THE LINE SEEMS TO BE THE CASE AND HAVE ADJUSTED POPS FOR THIS. THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE IN WESTERN KENTUCKY ALONG I-65 THIS HOUR AND LOOKS TO BE ARRIVING IN EASTERN KENTUCKY BY 18Z. FOR NOW...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AND THE HIGHER WIND GUSTS THREAT STILL LOOKS TO BE VALID. HAVE SENT OUT A NEW ZFP FOR THE POPS BEING ADJUSTED AND INPUT THE LATEST OBS. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014 CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE A LINE OF SHOWERS JUST ENTERING THE I-75 CORRIDOR AS HEAVY SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MOVE NORTH OUT OF TN INTO KY. THE GENERAL PROGRESSION OF THE LINE IS EASTWARD...THOUGH VERY SLOWLY. SOUTHEAST WINDS PERPENDICULAR ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS SEEMS TO BE CREATING A DOWN SLOPE EFFECT ON THE INCOMING RAINFALL AS IT CREEPS EAST. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE OVERCOME HEADING INTO THE MORNING HOURS. EVEN SO ADJUSTED THE POPS FOR A QUICKER EXIT TONIGHT AS THE DURATION APPEARS TO BE SHORTER. OBSERVATIONS SO FAR HAVE SHOWN WIND GUSTS GETTING INTO THE 30 TO 40 RANGE IN SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN. BECAUSE OF THIS...DECIDED TO CONTINUE WITH THE SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THE CONTINUED WIND THREAT. WHILE A FEW MORE BROKEN LINES OF STRONGER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THE MORNING HOURS...THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT IS MARGINAL FOR NOW. THIS MAY CHANGE HEADING INTO THE DAY WITH SOME HEATING AFTER DAYBREAK...PERHAPS ENOUGH FOR SOME INCREASED INSTABILITY BUT THE MAIN LINE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY ALREADY BE OVER MUCH OF EASTERN KENTUCKY BY THEN. THIS WILL NEED MONITORED HEADING INTO THE HOURS AFTER DAYBREAK TODAY...ESPECIALLY WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET OF 50 TO 60 KNOTS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ANY INCREASE IN INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH FOR THE LINE TO REORGANIZE. DESPITE THE LACK OF INSTABILITY...THE STRONG WIND THREAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF A PREFRONTAL TROUGH AND THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT THIS EVENING. THE ACTUAL FRONT MOVING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WILL PROVIDE A SECONDARY CONCERN FOR WINDS BUT ALSO FOR MORE HEAVY RAINFALL. WITH THIS...WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS TODAY...HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING...AND THE STRONG WIND THREAT. THROUGH THIS EVENING THE NAM AND GFS ARE SUGGESTING AN EARLIER EXIT WHICH MAY RESULT IN A NEED TO EXPIRE PRODUCTS A BIT EARLIER BUT ASSESS THIS LATER IN THE DAY. THIS APPEARS TO BE THE FORECAST CHALLENGE AS WHEN THIS FRONT EXITS. MODELS STILL AGREE WITH THE SCENARIO OF THE LINGERING UPPER LOW AND WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT AND ALSO FOR WEDNESDAY DUE TO THIS. TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL FEATURE A BREAK IN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AS THE DRY SLOT WILL BE OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY BEFORE A SECONDARY TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS. FOR NOW...SOME INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT IN THE AFTERNOON BUT WITH 200 J/KG...EXPECTING SHOWERS TO BE THE CASE. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 420 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014 THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM MEXICO NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO UPPER MS VALLEY REGION AND A CLOSED LOW OVER THE OH VALLEY REGION TO ITS EAST. THE AXIS OF THIS CLOSED LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS EAST KY ON WED NIGHT...WITH THE CLOSED LOW EXPECTED TO DEPART TO THE NORTHEAST GRADUALLY ON THU. THE RIDGE INITIALLY IN PLACE OVER THE PLAINS SHOULD WORK EAST AND WEAKEN/FLATTEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. THE PATTERN SHOULD GRADUALLY EVOLVE TO PATTERN WITH GENERALLY A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NORTH INTO THE ROCKIES AND A TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA SOUTH INTO THE EASTERN CONUS FROM THE WEEKEND THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. A FEW SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS TROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE SHOULD WORK ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND TN VALLEY REGIONS ON FRI NIGHT. THE 0Z ECMWF AND 0Z GFS THEN DIFFER WITH HEIGHTS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH THE GFS MORE CLOSED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND CONSOLIDATED...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE AND BRINGS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE INTO THE OH VALLEY FROM SAT INTO SAT EVENING. MODELS GENERALLY HAVE HEIGHT RISES AND WEAK RIDGING FOR SUNDAY...WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE OH VALLEY LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE PERIOD SHOULD BEGIN RATHER UNSETTLED WITH SHOWERS ANTICIPATED AS MODELS BRING RATHER DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION ON WED NIGHT INTO EARLY ON THU. WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND THE COLD AIR ALOFT...BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FOR THU. SOME CLEARING SHOULD TAKE PLACE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS FOR LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WITH MODERATION IN THE AIRMASS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THIS COLD FRONT WILL WORK ACROSS THE AREA FROM LATE FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. THIS FRONT WILL PROBABLY BRING NOT MUCH MORE THAN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A SPRINKLE OR TWO. THE ECMWF IS COLDER WITH THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY BY THE TIME IT BRINGS MUCH LOWER HEIGHTS ACROSS THE AREA ON SAT WITH THE STRONGER SHORTWAVE. THE MODEL BLEND OF TEMPS AND POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT FROM LATE FRI INTO SAT NIGHT SEEMED TO BE THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION AT THIS POINT. BY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT...WITH THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS BEST AFTER THE END OF THE PERIOD. MODEL DO DIFFER WITH TEMPS AT THAT POINT...THOUGH...WITH THE MODEL BLEND FAVORED WHICH WAS IN LINE WITH RECENT ECMWF MOS TEMPS. THIS LEANED TEMPS MORE TOWARD THE TYPICALLY MORE RELIABLE FOR THAT TIME RANGE ECMWF. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 715 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014 A WEAKENING LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. CEILINGS AND VIS WILL DROP AS THE LINE CONTINUES THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY AND WILL KEEP MOSTLY BELOW IFR AT THE SITES THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE OTHER CONCERN HERE WILL BE WINDS WHICH WILL GUST OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AND UP TO 25 KNOTS AT SOME LOCATIONS. WINDS SHOULD SHIFT FROM SOUTH EAST TO SOUTHWEST BY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE AREA WITH WINDS DISSIPATING AFTER 00Z. SHOWERS WILL REMAIN OVER A FEW AREAS TONIGHT BUT SOME BRIEF CLEARING IS POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT. IF THIS DOES OCCUR...SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP AT THE SITES ALONG WITH SOME LOWER CEILINGS. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR KYZ050-058-059-069- 080-085>088-108-111>118. FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ068-079-083- 084. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ088-118. && $$ UPDATE...JMW SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER LONG TERM...JP AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GRAY ME
912 PM EDT WED OCT 15 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AND WILL FINALLY CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON FRIDAY. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AND WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... .UPDATE... PUSHED TIMING OF PRECIPITATION BACK A FEW HOURS BASED ON LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS...NAMELY THE WRF AND RAP MODELS. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE BEGUN TO FALL IN THE HIGHER PEAKS AND HAVE INCREASED POPS IN THESE AREAS. SHOWERS INCREASE MOSTLY OVER NH THROUGH 2 AM AND THEN EASTWARD THROUGH DAYBREAK AS LLJ AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SHIFT OVER THE REGION. AREAS CURRENTLY RECEIVING RAINFALL FROM NORTHERN NY STATE TO COASTAL NJ HAVE SEEN WARM RAIN PROCESSES DOMINATING WITH HEAVY... TRAINING PRECIPITATION BANDS CONTRIBUTING TO HIGH RAINFALL RATES OF A HALF AN INCH OR MORE PER HOUR. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE. INCIDENTALLY TONIGHT`S 00Z KGYX SOUNDING HAS 1.20 INCHES FOR PRECIPITABLE WATER... THIS IS NEAR THE 80TH PERCENTILE FOR OCTOBER. STILL EXPECTING THE HEAVIEST AXIS OF RAIN TO REACH NH AND MAINE BETWEEN 8 AM AND NOON. && PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... A MOIST SOUTHERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF DRIZZLE AND SHOWERS AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...BUT THE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT. AREAS OF DENSE FOG MAY FORM AS WELL...AND THIS COULD REQUIRE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR A PORTION OF THE AREA LATER ON. STEADIER SHOWERS SHOULD ARRIVE IN WESTERN NH LATE TONIGHT...BUT THE HEAVY STUFF SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY THURSDAY. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...WARM AND MUGGY TONIGHT WITH DEWPOINTS HOLDING IN THE 60S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT REMAINS PRETTY MUCH STATUS QUO WITH A HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT EXPECTED. THE HEAVIEST BANDS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THURSDAY MORNING IN THE WEST...EVENTUALLY TRANSLATING TO THE EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND PUSH THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WE ARE STILL EXPECTING A GOOD 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES OF RAINFALL...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLY TO AROUND 3 INCHES ALONG WINDWARD SLOPES OF THE WHITES AND MAINE FOOTHILLS AS TROPICAL MOISTURE GETS ADVECTED IN ON STOUT SELY INFLOW. CONVERSELY...LOCATIONS ON THE LEEWARD SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS...SUCH AS WHITEFIELD NH...SHOULD SEE MUCH LESS RAINFALL. PERHAPS NOT EVEN A HALF INCH THERE. ENOUGH INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT TO ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLD THUNDER. MORE PERSISTENT HEAVIER CONVECTIVE BANDS MAY BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN SOME DECENT WIND GUSTS. HOWEVER...AS OF THIS WRITING THE BOUNDARY LAYER LOOKS TO BE A BIT TOO INVERTED FOR A STRONG WIND EVENT. IN ADDITION...SOME OF THE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE SPEED OF THE LOW LEVEL JET AS WELL. MOST ARE 40 KT OR LOWER IN THE LOWEST 5 KFT. THEREFORE...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE NOT EXPECTED. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THURSDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING. FRESHENING WESTERLY FLOW WILL CLEAR LINGERING STRATUS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. MAY SEE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS IN NORTHEAST ZONES DURING THE MORNING BUT THESE SHOULD CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. NOT A LOT IN THE WAY OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT AND INCREASING SUN AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL AGAIN SEND TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS FRIDAY NIGHT AS WEAK RIDGE FLATTENS AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WILL SEE VARIABLE CLOUDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND JUST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE. EXPECT TEMPS TO RANGE THROUGH THE 40S NORTH AND IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S SOUTH. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY BRINGING INCREASING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS. BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL BE IN NORTHWEST ZONES BUT NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY UNIFORM ACROSS THE REGION WITH MOST AREAS REACHING THE LOWER TO MID 60S. MORE OF THE SAME FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS DEEP TROUGH ALOFT KEEPS UNSTABLE AIR OVER THE REGION. WILL SEE MUCH COOLER TEMPS ON SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH HIGHS NOT GETTING OUT OF THE 40S IN THE NORTH AND LOWER TO MID 50S SOUTH. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ADD TO THE CHILL. STRONG NORTHWEST GRADIENT WILL PERSIST INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT ON MONDAY AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER LABRADOR CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY. EXPECT CLOUDS TO DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY. AFTER A CHILLY START WILL ONCE AGAIN ONLY SEE HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. UPPER TROUGH WILL ONCE AGAIN DIG INTO THE NEW ENGLAND AS FRESH BATCH OF JET ENERGY DIGS INTO THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MIDWEEK. && .AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... SHORT TERM...IFR OR LOWER EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT IN LOW STRATUS AND FOG. THESE CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT IN STRATUS...FOG...AND OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. LONG TERM...IFR/LIFR EARLY FRIDAY BECOMING VFR. VFR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...SCA HAS BEEN HOISTED FOR ALL WATERS THU THROUGH FRI. LOW PROBABILITY OF MARGINAL GALE GUSTS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THURS EVENING...BUT LOOKS LIKE MIXING WILL BE LIMITED. LONG TERM...SCA`S LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... EXPECTING A 1.5 TO 2.5 INCH RAINFALL EVENT STARTING LATE TONIGHT. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. NO FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME AS THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN LOCATIONS OF HEAVIEST BANDS OF RAIN. HOWEVER...URBAN AND LOW LYING FLOODING IS LIKELY. SOME FLASHIER STREAMS MAY SHOW VERY SHARP RISES. THE MOST LIKELY CANDIDATE FOR A WATCH WOULD BE THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND MAINE FOOTHILLS...BUT WILL LET NEXT SHIFT SEE NEW DATA. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THURSDAY TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ150>154. && $$ UPDATE...HANES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
441 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 441 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A SHARP TROF CENTERED OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH A CLOSED LOW OVER IL. JET STREAK ACROSS NRN ONTARIO/QUEBEC THAT WAS ONE OF THE BIG DRIVERS FOR THE MDT TO HVY PCPN ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES LAST NIGHT IS SHIFTING E. HOWEVER...FCST AREA STILL REMAINS UNDER UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THE DEPARTING JET STREAK AND ALSO IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LEFT EXIT OF ANOTHER JET STREAK WITH A VERY SHARP ISOTACH GRADIENT ORIENTED FROM THE LWR OHIO VALLEY TO LAKE MI AND WRN LWR MI. PCPN MORE STRONGLY TIED TO THE LEFT EXIT OF THE LATTER JET STREAK HAS BEEN SURGING N UP LAKE MI TODAY AND IS NOW SPREADING INTO THE ERN FCST AREA. TONIGHT...COMBINATION OF RATHER STRONG DEEP LAYER FORCING PER QVECTORS AND LEFT EXIT OF THE WRN GREAT LAKES UPPER JET WHICH IS TRANSLATING SLIGHTLY EASTWARD WILL SUPPORT BEST CHC OF RAIN OVER THE ERN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA. SHRA COVERAGE WILL PROBABLY DIMINISH SOME EARLY THIS EVENING PER RADAR TRENDS...BUT EXPECT NEW DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR QUICKLY DURING THE EVENING GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF FORCING. GREATEST COVERAGE SHOULD BE OVERNIGHT WHEN ANOTHER PUSH OF MOISTURE ADVECTION ALSO OCCURS IN THE 850-700MB LAYER. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SOME LOCALLY MDT TO HVY PCPN. TO THE W...LOW-MID LEVEL DRYING OCCURRING THIS AFTN WILL HOLD TONIGHT...SO DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THERE. MORE CHALLENGING PART OF THE FCST IS ACROSS THE CNTRL WHERE DELINEATION BTWN DRY AND RAIN WILL OCCUR...SO A FAIRLY TIGHT POP GRADIENT WILL BE PAINTED ACROSS MAINLY DICKINSON AND MARQUETTE COUNTIES. ON ANOTHER NOTE...THE STRONGEST WINDS ON LAKE SUPERIOR HAVE OCCURRED CLOSER TO THE UPPER MICHIGAN SHORE TODAY...LIMITING WAVE HEIGHTS OVER WHAT THEY COULD BE IF THE STRONGER WINDS COVERED MORE OF THE OPEN WATER. EVEN SO...CONTINUED STEADY WINDS WITH SOME EXPANSION OF HIGHER SPEEDS OVER THE OPEN WATERS MAY PUSH WAVES UP SOME TONIGHT...LEADING TO MINOR BEACH EROSION ALONG THE SHORES OF MARQUETTE AND ALGER COUNTIES INTO WED. ON WED...QVECTOR DIVERGENCE AND UPPER JET GRADUALLY SHIFT E THOUGH SOME WEAK FORCING DOES LINGER OVER THE E. WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS IN THE MORNING OVER THE E WITH ONLY LOW CHC POPS LINGERING IN THE AFTN. THE W WILL REMAIN DRY. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014 THE FORECAST FOR LATE THIS WEEK REMAINS COMPLICATED AS THE UPPER LOW PERSISTS OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THURSDAY...LEADING TO THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA UNDER CONTINUED CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...WHILE THE WESTERN AREA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK RIDGING. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE EAST UNDER GENERALLY CLOUDY SKIES WED NIGHT INTO THU...WHILE THE WEST MAY END UP WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. HOWEVER...EVEN WITH THE EAST SEEING RAIN CHANCES...THIS AREA WILL BE QUITE FAR REMOVED FROM THE UPPER LOW ITSELF AND ANY RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE SCATTERED AT BEST...NOT ANYTHING LIKE AN ALL DAY RAIN LIKE THE EAST HAS SEEN TODAY. FINALLY...BY FRIDAY...AN UPPER DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER MS VLY AND MERGE WITH THE GREAT LAKES UPPER LOW. THIS WILL ALLOW THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH AND ALSO ALLOW FOR MOISTURE TO WRAP AROUND THE MEAN UPPER LOW AS IT MOVES TO HUDSON BAY. AS SUCH...ALONG AND BEHIND THE SFC AND UPPER TOUGH THERE WILL BE BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN. IN FACT...THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH SHOW UP TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN FOR THE WEST FRI AFTN/EVENING. THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE COLDER 850MB TEMPS DROPPING IN TO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT AS WELL AS CYCLONIC UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE WESTERN UPPER PENINSULA. AS SUCH...WILL RAISE POPS TO HIGH CHC OR LIKELY ACROSS THE WEST. WITH THE CYCLONIC FLOW AND INDICATIONS FROM THE 12Z ECMWF THAT AN ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT...WILL MAINTAIN HIGHER POPS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR DUE TO LAKE ENHANCED PCPN. IN FACT...IF THE COLDER ECMWF VERIFIES WITH 1000-850MB THICKNESS VALUES BELOW 1300M...THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF MARQUETTE WILL LIKELY SEE THEIR FIRST MEASURABLE SNOWFALL OF THE YEAR FRI NIGHT. AS SUCH...WILL ALSO MENTION SNOW A LITTLE MORE ON FRI NIGHT IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF MARQUETTE. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...EXPECT LAKE EFFECT PCPN TO GRADUALLY END SATURDAY/SAT EVENING AS THE LOW MOVES OUT AND HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE BUILDS IN. WILL MAINTAIN HIGH POPS ACROSS THE KEWEENAW AND THE EAST DUE TO THE NW PBL FLOW AND 850MB TEMPS -2C TO -5C. RIDGING BUILDS IN BRIEFLY ON SUNDAY...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A QUIET AND WARMER DAY. HOWEVER...THE NWP START TO DISAGREE ON MON REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE NEXT TOUGH DIVING DOWN INTO THE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE SUPPRESSED THAN THE ECMWF...WITH THE GFS GENERALLY DRY FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE THE ECWMF SHOWS AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE FOR RAIN WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH. FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FCST BUT IT POSSIBLE THAT POPS WILL NEED TO BE INTRODUCED AT SOME POINT FOR MON. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 137 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014 DRIER AIR IS SLOWLY FILTERING INTO WRN UPPER MI...RESULTING IN CIGS IMPROVING. KCMX HAS ALREADY IMPROVED TO VFR...AND CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THRU THE END OF THE FCST PERIOD. AT KIWD...EXPECT IFR/MVFR CIGS TO SCATTER OUT IN THE NEXT FEW HRS...LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST PERIOD. HOWEVER...AT KCMX AND KIWD...THERE IS A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR LIFR CIGS TO REAPPEAR LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WED MORNING AS NOCTURNAL COOLING AND UPSLOPE FLOW MAY CONSPIRE TO CAUSE STRATUS TO FORM. WITH VERY LOW CONFIDENCE... CONDITIONS WERE KEPT VFR...BUT DID INCLUDE SCT 200FT CLOUDS AT KIWD WHERE UPSLOPING IS MORE FAVORABLE. KSAW REMAINS IN THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THERE ARE SOME HINTS FROM GUIDANCE THAT LOW-LEVELS MAY DRY OUT SOME LATER THIS AFTN...BUT GIVEN OBS/SATELLITE TRENDS...PLAN TO KEEP FCST MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH LIFR IMPROVING TO LOW MVFR BY LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING. WILL THEN KEEP LOW MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST AT KSAW. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014 NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 20-30 KT TONIGHT ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REMAINS STATIONARY. THE LOW STARTS TO WEAKEN ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO WEAKEN DURING THE DAY AND REMAIN BELOW 20 KT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE ON FRIDAY AND THEN MERGES WITH THE LOW OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WHILE STRENGTHENING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR N-NW WINDS TO DEVELOP FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WINDS COULD INCREASE TO NEAR GALE FORCE SAT BEFORE DIMINISHING SUNDAY. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...ROLFSON LONG TERM...MRD AVIATION...ROLFSON MARINE...MRD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
427 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 428 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014 00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW DEEP UPR TROF OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS...WITH CLOSED LO MOVING SLOWLY ENEWD THRU SE IOWA. WELL DEFINED AREA OF COLDER CLD TOPS IN THE COMMA HEAD OF THE CLOUD LEAF ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS PRESENT OVER WI AND UPR MI. COMBINATION OF DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC...VIGOROUS UPR DVGC IN RRQ OF H3 JET STREAK IN NW ONTARIO AND IN EXIT REGION OF ANOTHER JET STREAK MOVING N THRU THE MS RIVER VALLEY ARND THE CLOSED LO AND VERY MOIST AIR WITH 00Z PWAT AS HI AS 1.30 INCH AT GRB /ABOUT 225 PCT OF NORMAL/ IS RESULTING IN WDSPRD RA OVER THE CWA. THE RA IS HEAVIEST OVER THE ERN CWA WHERE THE H85 ISOTHERMS ARE MOST CLOSELY PACKED IN PRESENCE OF SHARP H85-7 FGEN AND SFC-H7 MSTR CNVGC IS MOST PRONOUNCED NEAR THIS FRONTAL ZN. RADARS TO THE S INDICATE A HINT OF A DRY SLOT IS MOVING N THRU ERN WI...WITH PCPN THERE TAKING ON A MORE SHOWERY LOOK. MUCH DRIER MID LVL AIR SHOWN ON THE 00Z INL RAOB IS KEEPING FAR WRN LK SUP DRY. MAIN FCST CONCERNS THRU TNGT WL BE FOCUSED ON PCPN COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS ASSOCIATED WITH CLOSED LO THAT IS FCST TO MOVE TO NEAR CHICAGO BY 12Z WED. TODAY...CLOSED LO IS FCST TO DRIFT ONLY SLOWLY TO THE E INTO NCENTRAL IL BY 00Z WED...WITH DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC MAINTAINED OVER ALL OF UPR MI EXCEPT FOR THE FAR W...WHERE MODELS INDICATE MORE AGGRESSIVE LO-MID LVL DRYING WL RESULT IN LARGER SCALE QVECTOR DVGC BY THE AFTN. AT THE SAME TIME...THE UPR JET STREAK OVER NW ONTARIO IS FCST TO DRIFT TO THE NE AND OVER JAMES BAY TOWARD 00Z. WHILE THIS SHIFT WL RESULT IN DIMINISHING UPR DVGC...MOVEMENT OF JET STREAK ON THE ERN FLANK OF THE CLOSED LO INTO LOWER MI WL LIKELY MAINTAIN SOME GREATER UPR DVGC OVER THE E HALF OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE DAY. AXIS OF SHARPEST H85-7 FGEN/SFC-7 MSTR CNVGC IS ALSO FCST TO SHIFT TO THE NE THIS MRNG AND GIVE WAY TO SOME H85-7 DRYING. THE RESULT OF THESE SHIFTS IN DYNAMIC SUPPORT...ALONG WITH SOME DRYING MOVING IN FM THE S THIS MRNG AND FROM THE W THRU THE DAY SHOULD BE A DIMINISHING TREND IN THE RA COVERAGE/AMOUNTS. BUT PERSISTENCE OF DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC OVER ALL BUT THE FAR W AND COVERAGE OF PCPN UNDER THE COMMA HEAD FEATURE WELL UPSTREAM THRU WI AND INTO SE MN EARLY THIS MRNG SHOULD MAINTAIN AT LEAST SCT-NMRS SHOWERS OVER THE E HALF. CONSIDERING THE WELL DEFINED COMMA CLD AND FCST LINGERING DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC AS WELL AS THE SLOWLY FCST VEERING H85 WINDS... SUSPECT THE MODELS MAY BE A BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE ON THE MID LVL DRYING...AT LEAST OVER THE CENTRAL AND E. SO TENDED TO SLOW THE DRYING TREND A BIT FM THE W. BUT THERE STILL COULD BE SOME AFTN SUNSHINE OVER THE W...WHICH WL BOOST TEMPS A FEW DEGREES. THERE IS LIKELY TO BE A RESURGENCE IN THE POPS ESPECIALLY OVER THE SCENTRAL AND E LATER IN THE DAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF MORE UPR DVGC IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION IN THE UPR JET MOVING INTO LOWER MI AS WELL AS ANOTHER AREA OF SHARPER H85-7 FGEN SHOWN BY SOME OF THE GUIDANCE. TNGT...BULK OF THE MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE WDSPRD RA MAY IMPACT THE CENTRAL AND ERN CWA INTO THE EARLY MRNG HRS UNDER PERSISTENT DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC AND UNDER AREA OF UPR DVGC IN LEFT EXIT OF JET STREAK SHIFTING SLOWLY TO THE E THRU LOWER MI TO THE NE OF CLOSED LO FCST TO DRIFT SLOWLY ENE TOWARD SRN LK MI. THE PCPN LOOKS TO BE A BIT HEAVIER IN THE EVNG OVER THE SCENTRAL CWA WHERE AXIS OF SHARPER H85-7 FGEN IS FCST TO ACCOMPANY THIS HIER LVL SUPPORT. OTRW...INCRSG NNE WINDS TDAY THRU TNGT WL CAUSE WAVE HGTS TO BUILD SUFFICIENTLY TO PERHAPS CAUSE SOME MINOR BEACH EROSION ALONG THE SHORES OF MQT AND ALGER COUNTIES. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014 THE FORECAST FOR LATE THIS WEEK REMAINS COMPLICATED AS THE UPPER LOW PERSISTS OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THURSDAY...LEADING TO THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA UNDER CONTINUED CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...WHILE THE WESTERN AREA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK RIDGING. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE EAST UNDER GENERALLY CLOUDY SKIES WED NIGHT INTO THU...WHILE THE WEST MAY END UP WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. HOWEVER...EVEN WITH THE EAST SEEING RAIN CHANCES...THIS AREA WILL BE QUITE FAR REMOVED FROM THE UPPER LOW ITSELF AND ANY RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE SCATTERED AT BEST...NOT ANYTHING LIKE AN ALL DAY RAIN LIKE THE EAST HAS SEEN TODAY. FINALLY...BY FRIDAY...AN UPPER DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER MS VLY AND MERGE WITH THE GREAT LAKES UPPER LOW. THIS WILL ALLOW THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH AND ALSO ALLOW FOR MOISTURE TO WRAP AROUND THE MEAN UPPER LOW AS IT MOVES TO HUDSON BAY. AS SUCH...ALONG AND BEHIND THE SFC AND UPPER TOUGH THERE WILL BE BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN. IN FACT...THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH SHOW UP TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN FOR THE WEST FRI AFTN/EVENING. THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE COLDER 850MB TEMPS DROPPING IN TO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT AS WELL AS CYCLONIC UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE WESTERN UPPER PENINSULA. AS SUCH...WILL RAISE POPS TO HIGH CHC OR LIKELY ACROSS THE WEST. WITH THE CYCLONIC FLOW AND INDICATIONS FROM THE 12Z ECMWF THAT AN ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT...WILL MAINTAIN HIGHER POPS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR DUE TO LAKE ENHANCED PCPN. IN FACT...IF THE COLDER ECMWF VERIFIES WITH 1000-850MB THICKNESS VALUES BELOW 1300M...THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF MARQUETTE WILL LIKELY SEE THEIR FIRST MEASURABLE SNOWFALL OF THE YEAR FRI NIGHT. AS SUCH...WILL ALSO MENTION SNOW A LITTLE MORE ON FRI NIGHT IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF MARQUETTE. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...EXPECT LAKE EFFECT PCPN TO GRADUALLY END SATURDAY/SAT EVENING AS THE LOW MOVES OUT AND HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE BUILDS IN. WILL MAINTAIN HIGH POPS ACROSS THE KEWEENAW AND THE EAST DUE TO THE NW PBL FLOW AND 850MB TEMPS -2C TO -5C. RIDGING BUILDS IN BRIEFLY ON SUNDAY...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A QUIET AND WARMER DAY. HOWEVER...THE NWP START TO DISAGREE ON MON REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE NEXT TOUGH DIVING DOWN INTO THE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE SUPPRESSED THAN THE ECMWF...WITH THE GFS GENERALLY DRY FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE THE ECWMF SHOWS AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE FOR RAIN WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH. FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FCST BUT IT POSSIBLE THAT POPS WILL NEED TO BE INTRODUCED AT SOME POINT FOR MON. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 137 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014 DRIER AIR IS SLOWLY FILTERING INTO WRN UPPER MI...RESULTING IN CIGS IMPROVING. KCMX HAS ALREADY IMPROVED TO VFR...AND CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THRU THE END OF THE FCST PERIOD. AT KIWD...EXPECT IFR/MVFR CIGS TO SCATTER OUT IN THE NEXT FEW HRS...LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST PERIOD. HOWEVER...AT KCMX AND KIWD...THERE IS A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR LIFR CIGS TO REAPPEAR LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WED MORNING AS NOCTURNAL COOLING AND UPSLOPE FLOW MAY CONSPIRE TO CAUSE STRATUS TO FORM. WITH VERY LOW CONFIDENCE... CONDITIONS WERE KEPT VFR...BUT DID INCLUDE SCT 200FT CLOUDS AT KIWD WHERE UPSLOPING IS MORE FAVORABLE. KSAW REMAINS IN THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THERE ARE SOME HINTS FROM GUIDANCE THAT LOW-LEVELS MAY DRY OUT SOME LATER THIS AFTN...BUT GIVEN OBS/SATELLITE TRENDS...PLAN TO KEEP FCST MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH LIFR IMPROVING TO LOW MVFR BY LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING. WILL THEN KEEP LOW MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST AT KSAW. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014 NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 20-30 KT TONIGHT ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REMAINS STATIONARY. THE LOW STARTS TO WEAKEN ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO WEAKEN DURING THE DAY AND REMAIN BELOW 20 KT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE ON FRIDAY AND THEN MERGES WITH THE LOW OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WHILE STRENGTHENING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR N-NW WINDS TO DEVELOP FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WINDS COULD INCREASE TO NEAR GALE FORCE SAT BEFORE DIMINISHING SUNDAY. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KC LONG TERM...MRD AVIATION...ROLFSON MARINE...MRD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
326 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014 .SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN ILLINOIS IS BEGINNING THE PROCESS OF PROPAGATING BACK INTO THE COLD AIR AS OCCLUSION BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE. AS THIS OCCURS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, A SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS PROGGED TO TAKE SHAPE NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT OVER WESTERN LOWER MI WHICH SHOULD HELP USHER THE DEEPER MOISTURE EAST OF THE AREA BY 06Z. IN THE MEANTIME, WEAKLY FORCED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM CONVEYOR AND ENHANCED BY CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LEAD EDGE OF THE GRADUALLY DESCENDING DRY SLOT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. THE 16Z HRRR SUGGESTS THIS COULD TAKE UNTIL AS LATE AS 07-08Z FOR EASTERN AREAS, CONSIDERABLY SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. THIS CERTAINLY SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS WHICH SHOW VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORWARD MOTION FOR THE UPSTREAM CYCLONE. THE RAINFALL FORECAST WILL BE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY TO ALLOW FOR A SLOWER EXIT OF SHOWERS AND LINGERING DRIZZLE. LIGHT COLD ADVECTION WILL GET UNDERWAY ONCE THE DEEPER MOISTURE EXITS EAST AND THE COOL AIRMASS OVER SOUTHERN MO/IL/IN ADVECTS INTO THE AREA WITHIN DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW. LOWS IN THE MID 50S ARE REASONABLE. && .LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY UPPER CUTOFF LOW MEANDERING ACROSS THE REGION WILL IMPACT OUR WEATHER LOCALLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MAIN MOISTURE PLUME WILL BE SHUNTED OFF TO THE EAST...BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER IN LOWER LEVELS TO SUPPORT BOUTS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR WEDNESDAY SHOW STEEP LAPSE RATES DEVELOPING BELOW 10KFT SO SHOWER PRODUCTION WILL LIKELY GET A BOOST FROM DIURNAL PROCESSES DURING THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY...A BIT OF ENHANCED THETA-E AT LOWER TO MID LEVELS WILL BE DRIVEN WESTWARD FROM THE MAIN MOISTURE PLUME OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS IS DUE TO EASTERLY TRAJECTORIES DEVELOPING AS THE LOW/MID LEVEL CIRCULATION REORIENTS ITSELF TO OUR SOUTH WHILE DRIFTING EASTWARD. WITH THE DISORGANIZED NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM HOWEVER...POPS WILL BE KEPT AT LOW/MID LEVEL CHANCE RANGE. ADDITIONAL BOUTS OF SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGHER THETA-E CONTINUES TO WRAP INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST. WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING AN END TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES. TEMPERATURES BOTH WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE AS THERE IS NOT MUCH COLD AIR BENEATH THE UPPER LOW. CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS ELEVATED. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SWING THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY BRINGING YET AGAIN ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS TO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. WHILE RAIN SHOWERS COULD BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE AREA...THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE IN THE NORTHERN CWA. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING SOME MUCH NEEDED DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL BRING A RETURN OF RAIN ON MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY MILD ON FRIDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S BEFORE DROPPING DOWN INTO THE MID 50S FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR TREND STARING OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND DROPPING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. && .MARINE... MODERATELY STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS. THIS HAS BROUGHT IN A MILD AIRMASS AND AREAS OF RAIN WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING SOUTH TO NORTH. THE SURFACE LOW WILL BROADEN AND WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS NORTHEASTWARD...CAUSING THE WINDS TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR THE FAR NORTHERN ZONE OF LAKE HURON NEAR THE STRAITS WHERE STRONGER NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL ON THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE LOW. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW GALE CRITERIA. BOUTS OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BUT WITH LIGHTER WINDS THAN TODAY. STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY/WESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS A COLDER AIRMASS SPILLS INTO THE REGION...WHEN ADDITIONAL MARINE HEADLINES WILL BE POSSIBLE. && .AVIATION...ISSUED 1220 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014 //DISCUSSION... LIGHT RAIN IS ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS HAS PREVENTED DETERIORATION OF CEILINGS THUS FAR, BUT UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT THIS WILL CHANGE AS DEEPER MOISTURE OVER EASTERN INDIANA AND WESTERN OHIO LIFT THROUGH THE AREA ROUGHLY 18Z-03Z. DURING THIS TIME, MVFR CEILINGS WILL TAKE HOLD WITH VSBY RANGING FROM VFR TO IFR DEPENDING ON VARIABLE SHOWER INTENSITY. OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNTOS REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING LULLS IN SHOWER ACTIVITY. PRECIP WILL END AS DRY SLOT WRAPS IN FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE EVENING, BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LOCKED IN PLACE ENSURING LOW MVFR CIGS THROUGH TONIGHT AND PERHAPS A PERIOD OF DRIZZLE EARLY. //DTW THRESHOLD THREATS... * HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FEET AFTER 19Z. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LAKE HURON... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH...UNTIL MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT HURON...UNTIL 8 PM TUESDAY. LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE. MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...UNTIL 8 PM TUESDAY. && $$ SHORT TERM...JVC LONG TERM....DT/RK MARINE.......DT AVIATION.....JVC YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
137 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 428 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014 00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW DEEP UPR TROF OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS...WITH CLOSED LO MOVING SLOWLY ENEWD THRU SE IOWA. WELL DEFINED AREA OF COLDER CLD TOPS IN THE COMMA HEAD OF THE CLOUD LEAF ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS PRESENT OVER WI AND UPR MI. COMBINATION OF DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC...VIGOROUS UPR DVGC IN RRQ OF H3 JET STREAK IN NW ONTARIO AND IN EXIT REGION OF ANOTHER JET STREAK MOVING N THRU THE MS RIVER VALLEY ARND THE CLOSED LO AND VERY MOIST AIR WITH 00Z PWAT AS HI AS 1.30 INCH AT GRB /ABOUT 225 PCT OF NORMAL/ IS RESULTING IN WDSPRD RA OVER THE CWA. THE RA IS HEAVIEST OVER THE ERN CWA WHERE THE H85 ISOTHERMS ARE MOST CLOSELY PACKED IN PRESENCE OF SHARP H85-7 FGEN AND SFC-H7 MSTR CNVGC IS MOST PRONOUNCED NEAR THIS FRONTAL ZN. RADARS TO THE S INDICATE A HINT OF A DRY SLOT IS MOVING N THRU ERN WI...WITH PCPN THERE TAKING ON A MORE SHOWERY LOOK. MUCH DRIER MID LVL AIR SHOWN ON THE 00Z INL RAOB IS KEEPING FAR WRN LK SUP DRY. MAIN FCST CONCERNS THRU TNGT WL BE FOCUSED ON PCPN COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS ASSOCIATED WITH CLOSED LO THAT IS FCST TO MOVE TO NEAR CHICAGO BY 12Z WED. TODAY...CLOSED LO IS FCST TO DRIFT ONLY SLOWLY TO THE E INTO NCENTRAL IL BY 00Z WED...WITH DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC MAINTAINED OVER ALL OF UPR MI EXCEPT FOR THE FAR W...WHERE MODELS INDICATE MORE AGGRESSIVE LO-MID LVL DRYING WL RESULT IN LARGER SCALE QVECTOR DVGC BY THE AFTN. AT THE SAME TIME...THE UPR JET STREAK OVER NW ONTARIO IS FCST TO DRIFT TO THE NE AND OVER JAMES BAY TOWARD 00Z. WHILE THIS SHIFT WL RESULT IN DIMINISHING UPR DVGC...MOVEMENT OF JET STREAK ON THE ERN FLANK OF THE CLOSED LO INTO LOWER MI WL LIKELY MAINTAIN SOME GREATER UPR DVGC OVER THE E HALF OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE DAY. AXIS OF SHARPEST H85-7 FGEN/SFC-7 MSTR CNVGC IS ALSO FCST TO SHIFT TO THE NE THIS MRNG AND GIVE WAY TO SOME H85-7 DRYING. THE RESULT OF THESE SHIFTS IN DYNAMIC SUPPORT...ALONG WITH SOME DRYING MOVING IN FM THE S THIS MRNG AND FROM THE W THRU THE DAY SHOULD BE A DIMINISHING TREND IN THE RA COVERAGE/AMOUNTS. BUT PERSISTENCE OF DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC OVER ALL BUT THE FAR W AND COVERAGE OF PCPN UNDER THE COMMA HEAD FEATURE WELL UPSTREAM THRU WI AND INTO SE MN EARLY THIS MRNG SHOULD MAINTAIN AT LEAST SCT-NMRS SHOWERS OVER THE E HALF. CONSIDERING THE WELL DEFINED COMMA CLD AND FCST LINGERING DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC AS WELL AS THE SLOWLY FCST VEERING H85 WINDS... SUSPECT THE MODELS MAY BE A BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE ON THE MID LVL DRYING...AT LEAST OVER THE CENTRAL AND E. SO TENDED TO SLOW THE DRYING TREND A BIT FM THE W. BUT THERE STILL COULD BE SOME AFTN SUNSHINE OVER THE W...WHICH WL BOOST TEMPS A FEW DEGREES. THERE IS LIKELY TO BE A RESURGENCE IN THE POPS ESPECIALLY OVER THE SCENTRAL AND E LATER IN THE DAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF MORE UPR DVGC IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION IN THE UPR JET MOVING INTO LOWER MI AS WELL AS ANOTHER AREA OF SHARPER H85-7 FGEN SHOWN BY SOME OF THE GUIDANCE. TNGT...BULK OF THE MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE WDSPRD RA MAY IMPACT THE CENTRAL AND ERN CWA INTO THE EARLY MRNG HRS UNDER PERSISTENT DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC AND UNDER AREA OF UPR DVGC IN LEFT EXIT OF JET STREAK SHIFTING SLOWLY TO THE E THRU LOWER MI TO THE NE OF CLOSED LO FCST TO DRIFT SLOWLY ENE TOWARD SRN LK MI. THE PCPN LOOKS TO BE A BIT HEAVIER IN THE EVNG OVER THE SCENTRAL CWA WHERE AXIS OF SHARPER H85-7 FGEN IS FCST TO ACCOMPANY THIS HIER LVL SUPPORT. OTRW...INCRSG NNE WINDS TDAY THRU TNGT WL CAUSE WAVE HGTS TO BUILD SUFFICIENTLY TO PERHAPS CAUSE SOME MINOR BEACH EROSION ALONG THE SHORES OF MQT AND ALGER COUNTIES. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 418 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014 THE FORECAST FOR WED-WED NIGHT IS COMPLICATED BY SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER IL/IN. ADDITIONALLY...DETERMINING WHERE AND HOW MUCH PRECIP IS COMPLICATED BY A SHARP MOISTURE CUTOFF TO VERY DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A RIDGE AXIS JUST NW OF THE CWA. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP FAR NWRN UPPER MI DRY AS MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS TO BE THE CASE...BUT HAVE MINIMAL CONFIDENCE IN EXACT PRECIP AMOUNTS AND LOCATIONS OF GREATEST PRECIP. LACK OF CONFIDENCE CONTINUES THU AND THU NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW MERGES WITH A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SRN CANADA. MODELS SHOW A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING OVER OR NEAR THE CWA FRI AS A RESULT OF THE MERGER. UNCERTAINTY COMES FROM MODEL TO MODEL DISAGREEMENT AND RUN TO RUN DISCONTINUITY ON WHERE THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY TRACKS BEFORE/DURING THE MERGER. THE 12Z/13 ECMWF BRINGS THE REMNANTS OF THE LOW CURRENTLY OVER IL ACROSS THE CWA...WHILE THE 00Z/14 GFS MOVES THE REMNANTS WELL E AND THEN N OF THE CWA. THUS...THE ECMWF HAS LIGHT RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA ON THU AND THU NIGHT...WHILE THE GFS HAS ALMOST THE ENTIRE CWA DRY. THE GFS ALSO HAS BACKING FROM THE 00Z/14 NAM AND 12Z/13 GLOBAL GEM. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD CHANCES OF PRECIP OVER THE ERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA AND SLIGHT CHANCES ELSEWHERE. GIVEN CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE BEING MUCH DRIER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...DECIDED TO CUT POPS BACK SOME ON THU. IT DOES LOOK LIKE A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THU NIGHT OR EARLY FRI...WITH A REINFORCING COLD FRONT LATE FRI OR FRI NIGHT. AT THIS POINT...CONFIDENCE ACTUALLY INCREASES AS WNW-NW LOW LEVEL FLOW AND GREATER LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL LEAD TO LAKE EFFECT PRECIP FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT. FOR SUN AND MON...MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH WILL MOVE FAR ENOUGH E TO LIMIT PRECIP CHANCES. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH CONTINUED N-NW FLOW. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 137 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014 DRIER AIR IS SLOWLY FILTERING INTO WRN UPPER MI...RESULTING IN CIGS IMPROVING. KCMX HAS ALREADY IMPROVED TO VFR...AND CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THRU THE END OF THE FCST PERIOD. AT KIWD...EXPECT IFR/MVFR CIGS TO SCATTER OUT IN THE NEXT FEW HRS...LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST PERIOD. HOWEVER...AT KCMX AND KIWD...THERE IS A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR LIFR CIGS TO REAPPEAR LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WED MORNING AS NOCTURNAL COOLING AND UPSLOPE FLOW MAY CONSPIRE TO CAUSE STRATUS TO FORM. WITH VERY LOW CONFIDENCE... CONDITIONS WERE KEPT VFR...BUT DID INCLUDE SCT 200FT CLOUDS AT KIWD WHERE UPSLOPING IS MORE FAVORABLE. KSAW REMAINS IN THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THERE ARE SOME HINTS FROM GUIDANCE THAT LOW-LEVELS MAY DRY OUT SOME LATER THIS AFTN...BUT GIVEN OBS/SATELLITE TRENDS...PLAN TO KEEP FCST MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH LIFR IMPROVING TO LOW MVFR BY LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING. WILL THEN KEEP LOW MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST AT KSAW. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 428 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014 EXPECT INCREASING NNE WINDS UP TO 30 KTS OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAKE INTO TONIGHT UNDER TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT TO THE N OF DEEP LO PRES MOVING TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THERE COULD BE SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS...ESPECIALLY AT THE HIER PLATFORMS. AS THE LO TO THE S SLOWLY WEAKENS LATER TONIGHT/WED AND A HI PRES RIDGE DRIFTS OVER THE UPPER LAKES LATER ON WED...EXPECT WINDS TO STEADILY DIMINISH UNDER 15 KTS ON WED NIGHT. RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WILL THEN PERSIST INTO FRI BEFORE A LO PRES IF FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND DEEPEN NEAR JAMES BAY. A SHARPENING PRES GRADIENT AROUND THIS FEATURE WILL BRING INCREASING NW WINDS...WHICH COULD REACH GALE FORCE ON SAT. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KC LONG TERM...TITUS AVIATION...ROLFSON MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
745 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 428 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014 00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW DEEP UPR TROF OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS...WITH CLOSED LO MOVING SLOWLY ENEWD THRU SE IOWA. WELL DEFINED AREA OF COLDER CLD TOPS IN THE COMMA HEAD OF THE CLOUD LEAF ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS PRESENT OVER WI AND UPR MI. COMBINATION OF DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC...VIGOROUS UPR DVGC IN RRQ OF H3 JET STREAK IN NW ONTARIO AND IN EXIT REGION OF ANOTHER JET STREAK MOVING N THRU THE MS RIVER VALLEY ARND THE CLOSED LO AND VERY MOIST AIR WITH 00Z PWAT AS HI AS 1.30 INCH AT GRB /ABOUT 225 PCT OF NORMAL/ IS RESULTING IN WDSPRD RA OVER THE CWA. THE RA IS HEAVIEST OVER THE ERN CWA WHERE THE H85 ISOTHERMS ARE MOST CLOSELY PACKED IN PRESENCE OF SHARP H85-7 FGEN AND SFC-H7 MSTR CNVGC IS MOST PRONOUNCED NEAR THIS FRONTAL ZN. RADARS TO THE S INDICATE A HINT OF A DRY SLOT IS MOVING N THRU ERN WI...WITH PCPN THERE TAKING ON A MORE SHOWERY LOOK. MUCH DRIER MID LVL AIR SHOWN ON THE 00Z INL RAOB IS KEEPING FAR WRN LK SUP DRY. MAIN FCST CONCERNS THRU TNGT WL BE FOCUSED ON PCPN COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS ASSOCIATED WITH CLOSED LO THAT IS FCST TO MOVE TO NEAR CHICAGO BY 12Z WED. TODAY...CLOSED LO IS FCST TO DRIFT ONLY SLOWLY TO THE E INTO NCENTRAL IL BY 00Z WED...WITH DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC MAINTAINED OVER ALL OF UPR MI EXCEPT FOR THE FAR W...WHERE MODELS INDICATE MORE AGGRESSIVE LO-MID LVL DRYING WL RESULT IN LARGER SCALE QVECTOR DVGC BY THE AFTN. AT THE SAME TIME...THE UPR JET STREAK OVER NW ONTARIO IS FCST TO DRIFT TO THE NE AND OVER JAMES BAY TOWARD 00Z. WHILE THIS SHIFT WL RESULT IN DIMINISHING UPR DVGC...MOVEMENT OF JET STREAK ON THE ERN FLANK OF THE CLOSED LO INTO LOWER MI WL LIKELY MAINTAIN SOME GREATER UPR DVGC OVER THE E HALF OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE DAY. AXIS OF SHARPEST H85-7 FGEN/SFC-7 MSTR CNVGC IS ALSO FCST TO SHIFT TO THE NE THIS MRNG AND GIVE WAY TO SOME H85-7 DRYING. THE RESULT OF THESE SHIFTS IN DYNAMIC SUPPORT...ALONG WITH SOME DRYING MOVING IN FM THE S THIS MRNG AND FROM THE W THRU THE DAY SHOULD BE A DIMINISHING TREND IN THE RA COVERAGE/AMOUNTS. BUT PERSISTENCE OF DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC OVER ALL BUT THE FAR W AND COVERAGE OF PCPN UNDER THE COMMA HEAD FEATURE WELL UPSTREAM THRU WI AND INTO SE MN EARLY THIS MRNG SHOULD MAINTAIN AT LEAST SCT-NMRS SHOWERS OVER THE E HALF. CONSIDERING THE WELL DEFINED COMMA CLD AND FCST LINGERING DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC AS WELL AS THE SLOWLY FCST VEERING H85 WINDS... SUSPECT THE MODELS MAY BE A BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE ON THE MID LVL DRYING...AT LEAST OVER THE CENTRAL AND E. SO TENDED TO SLOW THE DRYING TREND A BIT FM THE W. BUT THERE STILL COULD BE SOME AFTN SUNSHINE OVER THE W...WHICH WL BOOST TEMPS A FEW DEGREES. THERE IS LIKELY TO BE A RESURGENCE IN THE POPS ESPECIALLY OVER THE SCENTRAL AND E LATER IN THE DAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF MORE UPR DVGC IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION IN THE UPR JET MOVING INTO LOWER MI AS WELL AS ANOTHER AREA OF SHARPER H85-7 FGEN SHOWN BY SOME OF THE GUIDANCE. TNGT...BULK OF THE MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE WDSPRD RA MAY IMPACT THE CENTRAL AND ERN CWA INTO THE EARLY MRNG HRS UNDER PERSISTENT DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC AND UNDER AREA OF UPR DVGC IN LEFT EXIT OF JET STREAK SHIFTING SLOWLY TO THE E THRU LOWER MI TO THE NE OF CLOSED LO FCST TO DRIFT SLOWLY ENE TOWARD SRN LK MI. THE PCPN LOOKS TO BE A BIT HEAVIER IN THE EVNG OVER THE SCENTRAL CWA WHERE AXIS OF SHARPER H85-7 FGEN IS FCST TO ACCOMPANY THIS HIER LVL SUPPORT. OTRW...INCRSG NNE WINDS TDAY THRU TNGT WL CAUSE WAVE HGTS TO BUILD SUFFICIENTLY TO PERHAPS CAUSE SOME MINOR BEACH EROSION ALONG THE SHORES OF MQT AND ALGER COUNTIES. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 418 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014 THE FORECAST FOR WED-WED NIGHT IS COMPLICATED BY SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER IL/IN. ADDITIONALLY...DETERMINING WHERE AND HOW MUCH PRECIP IS COMPLICATED BY A SHARP MOISTURE CUTOFF TO VERY DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A RIDGE AXIS JUST NW OF THE CWA. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP FAR NWRN UPPER MI DRY AS MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS TO BE THE CASE...BUT HAVE MINIMAL CONFIDENCE IN EXACT PRECIP AMOUNTS AND LOCATIONS OF GREATEST PRECIP. LACK OF CONFIDENCE CONTINUES THU AND THU NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW MERGES WITH A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SRN CANADA. MODELS SHOW A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING OVER OR NEAR THE CWA FRI AS A RESULT OF THE MERGER. UNCERTAINTY COMES FROM MODEL TO MODEL DISAGREEMENT AND RUN TO RUN DISCONTINUITY ON WHERE THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY TRACKS BEFORE/DURING THE MERGER. THE 12Z/13 ECMWF BRINGS THE REMNANTS OF THE LOW CURRENTLY OVER IL ACROSS THE CWA...WHILE THE 00Z/14 GFS MOVES THE REMNANTS WELL E AND THEN N OF THE CWA. THUS...THE ECMWF HAS LIGHT RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA ON THU AND THU NIGHT...WHILE THE GFS HAS ALMOST THE ENTIRE CWA DRY. THE GFS ALSO HAS BACKING FROM THE 00Z/14 NAM AND 12Z/13 GLOBAL GEM. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD CHANCES OF PRECIP OVER THE ERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA AND SLIGHT CHANCES ELSEWHERE. GIVEN CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE BEING MUCH DRIER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...DECIDED TO CUT POPS BACK SOME ON THU. IT DOES LOOK LIKE A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THU NIGHT OR EARLY FRI...WITH A REINFORCING COLD FRONT LATE FRI OR FRI NIGHT. AT THIS POINT...CONFIDENCE ACTUALLY INCREASES AS WNW-NW LOW LEVEL FLOW AND GREATER LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL LEAD TO LAKE EFFECT PRECIP FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT. FOR SUN AND MON...MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH WILL MOVE FAR ENOUGH E TO LIMIT PRECIP CHANCES. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH CONTINUED N-NW FLOW. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 739 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014 AS THE DYNAMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP LO PRES TO THE S SLOWLY WEAKENS TODAY AND DRIER AIR IS SLOWLY ADVECTED INTO THE UPR LKS... EXPECT GRDLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES. THIS DRYING WL BE MOST EMPHATIC OVER THE W...WHERE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO IMPROVE TO VFR AT IWD/CMX IN THE AFTN AND CONTINUE THRU TNGT. SINCE SAW WL BE CLOSER TO DEEPER MSTR AND A GUSTY N WIND WL UPSLOPE...THE IMPROVEMENT AT THIS LOCATION WL BE MUCH SLOWER. BUT EVEN HERE...ENUF DRY AIR MAY ARRIVE TO RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS FOR A TIME THIS EVNG BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF ANOTHER DISTURBANCE BRINGS A BETTER CHC OF MORE SHRA AND LO CLDS/MVFR CIGS LATER TNGT. GUSTY WINDS WL ALSO PERSIST AT SAW THRU TNGT. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 428 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014 EXPECT INCREASING NNE WINDS UP TO 30 KTS OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAKE INTO TONIGHT UNDER TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT TO THE N OF DEEP LO PRES MOVING TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THERE COULD BE SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS...ESPECIALLY AT THE HIER PLATFORMS. AS THE LO TO THE S SLOWLY WEAKENS LATER TONIGHT/WED AND A HI PRES RIDGE DRIFTS OVER THE UPPER LAKES LATER ON WED...EXPECT WINDS TO STEADILY DIMINISH UNDER 15 KTS ON WED NIGHT. RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WILL THEN PERSIST INTO FRI BEFORE A LO PRES IF FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND DEEPEN NEAR JAMES BAY. A SHARPENING PRES GRADIENT AROUND THIS FEATURE WILL BRING INCREASING NW WINDS...WHICH COULD REACH GALE FORCE ON SAT. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KC LONG TERM...TITUS AVIATION...KC MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
429 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 428 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014 00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW DEEP UPR TROF OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS...WITH CLOSED LO MOVING SLOWLY ENEWD THRU SE IOWA. WELL DEFINED AREA OF COLDER CLD TOPS IN THE COMMA HEAD OF THE CLOUD LEAF ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS PRESENT OVER WI AND UPR MI. COMBINATION OF DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC...VIGOROUS UPR DVGC IN RRQ OF H3 JET STREAK IN NW ONTARIO AND IN EXIT REGION OF ANOTHER JET STREAK MOVING N THRU THE MS RIVER VALLEY ARND THE CLOSED LO AND VERY MOIST AIR WITH 00Z PWAT AS HI AS 1.30 INCH AT GRB /ABOUT 225 PCT OF NORMAL/ IS RESULTING IN WDSPRD RA OVER THE CWA. THE RA IS HEAVIEST OVER THE ERN CWA WHERE THE H85 ISOTHERMS ARE MOST CLOSELY PACKED IN PRESENCE OF SHARP H85-7 FGEN AND SFC-H7 MSTR CNVGC IS MOST PRONOUNCED NEAR THIS FRONTAL ZN. RADARS TO THE S INDICATE A HINT OF A DRY SLOT IS MOVING N THRU ERN WI...WITH PCPN THERE TAKING ON A MORE SHOWERY LOOK. MUCH DRIER MID LVL AIR SHOWN ON THE 00Z INL RAOB IS KEEPING FAR WRN LK SUP DRY. MAIN FCST CONCERNS THRU TNGT WL BE FOCUSED ON PCPN COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS ASSOCIATED WITH CLOSED LO THAT IS FCST TO MOVE TO NEAR CHICAGO BY 12Z WED. TODAY...CLOSED LO IS FCST TO DRIFT ONLY SLOWLY TO THE E INTO NCENTRAL IL BY 00Z WED...WITH DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC MAINTAINED OVER ALL OF UPR MI EXCEPT FOR THE FAR W...WHERE MODELS INDICATE MORE AGGRESSIVE LO-MID LVL DRYING WL RESULT IN LARGER SCALE QVECTOR DVGC BY THE AFTN. AT THE SAME TIME...THE UPR JET STREAK OVER NW ONTARIO IS FCST TO DRIFT TO THE NE AND OVER JAMES BAY TOWARD 00Z. WHILE THIS SHIFT WL RESULT IN DIMINISHING UPR DVGC...MOVEMENT OF JET STREAK ON THE ERN FLANK OF THE CLOSED LO INTO LOWER MI WL LIKELY MAINTAIN SOME GREATER UPR DVGC OVER THE E HALF OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE DAY. AXIS OF SHARPEST H85-7 FGEN/SFC-7 MSTR CNVGC IS ALSO FCST TO SHIFT TO THE NE THIS MRNG AND GIVE WAY TO SOME H85-7 DRYING. THE RESULT OF THESE SHIFTS IN DYNAMIC SUPPORT...ALONG WITH SOME DRYING MOVING IN FM THE S THIS MRNG AND FROM THE W THRU THE DAY SHOULD BE A DIMINISHING TREND IN THE RA COVERAGE/AMOUNTS. BUT PERSISTENCE OF DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC OVER ALL BUT THE FAR W AND COVERAGE OF PCPN UNDER THE COMMA HEAD FEATURE WELL UPSTREAM THRU WI AND INTO SE MN EARLY THIS MRNG SHOULD MAINTAIN AT LEAST SCT-NMRS SHOWERS OVER THE E HALF. CONSIDERING THE WELL DEFINED COMMA CLD AND FCST LINGERING DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC AS WELL AS THE SLOWLY FCST VEERING H85 WINDS... SUSPECT THE MODELS MAY BE A BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE ON THE MID LVL DRYING...AT LEAST OVER THE CENTRAL AND E. SO TENDED TO SLOW THE DRYING TREND A BIT FM THE W. BUT THERE STILL COULD BE SOME AFTN SUNSHINE OVER THE W...WHICH WL BOOST TEMPS A FEW DEGREES. THERE IS LIKELY TO BE A RESURGENCE IN THE POPS ESPECIALLY OVER THE SCENTRAL AND E LATER IN THE DAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF MORE UPR DVGC IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION IN THE UPR JET MOVING INTO LOWER MI AS WELL AS ANOTHER AREA OF SHARPER H85-7 FGEN SHOWN BY SOME OF THE GUIDANCE. TNGT...BULK OF THE MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE WDSPRD RA MAY IMPACT THE CENTRAL AND ERN CWA INTO THE EARLY MRNG HRS UNDER PERSISTENT DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC AND UNDER AREA OF UPR DVGC IN LEFT EXIT OF JET STREAK SHIFTING SLOWLY TO THE E THRU LOWER MI TO THE NE OF CLOSED LO FCST TO DRIFT SLOWLY ENE TOWARD SRN LK MI. THE PCPN LOOKS TO BE A BIT HEAVIER IN THE EVNG OVER THE SCENTRAL CWA WHERE AXIS OF SHARPER H85-7 FGEN IS FCST TO ACCOMPANY THIS HIER LVL SUPPORT. OTRW...INCRSG NNE WINDS TDAY THRU TNGT WL CAUSE WAVE HGTS TO BUILD SUFFICIENTLY TO PERHAPS CAUSE SOME MINOR BEACH EROSION ALONG THE SHORES OF MQT AND ALGER COUNTIES. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 418 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014 THE FORECAST FOR WED-WED NIGHT IS COMPLICATED BY SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER IL/IN. ADDITIONALLY...DETERMINING WHERE AND HOW MUCH PRECIP IS COMPLICATED BY A SHARP MOISTURE CUTOFF TO VERY DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A RIDGE AXIS JUST NW OF THE CWA. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP FAR NWRN UPPER MI DRY AS MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS TO BE THE CASE...BUT HAVE MINIMAL CONFIDENCE IN EXACT PRECIP AMOUNTS AND LOCATIONS OF GREATEST PRECIP. LACK OF CONFIDENCE CONTINUES THU AND THU NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW MERGES WITH A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SRN CANADA. MODELS SHOW A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING OVER OR NEAR THE CWA FRI AS A RESULT OF THE MERGER. UNCERTAINTY COMES FROM MODEL TO MODEL DISAGREEMENT AND RUN TO RUN DISCONTINUITY ON WHERE THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY TRACKS BEFORE/DURING THE MERGER. THE 12Z/13 ECMWF BRINGS THE REMNANTS OF THE LOW CURRENTLY OVER IL ACROSS THE CWA...WHILE THE 00Z/14 GFS MOVES THE REMNANTS WELL E AND THEN N OF THE CWA. THUS...THE ECMWF HAS LIGHT RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA ON THU AND THU NIGHT...WHILE THE GFS HAS ALMOST THE ENTIRE CWA DRY. THE GFS ALSO HAS BACKING FROM THE 00Z/14 NAM AND 12Z/13 GLOBAL GEM. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD CHANCES OF PRECIP OVER THE ERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA AND SLIGHT CHANCES ELSEWHERE. GIVEN CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE BEING MUCH DRIER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...DECIDED TO CUT POPS BACK SOME ON THU. IT DOES LOOK LIKE A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THU NIGHT OR EARLY FRI...WITH A REINFORCING COLD FRONT LATE FRI OR FRI NIGHT. AT THIS POINT...CONFIDENCE ACTUALLY INCREASES AS WNW-NW LOW LEVEL FLOW AND GREATER LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL LEAD TO LAKE EFFECT PRECIP FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT. FOR SUN AND MON...MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH WILL MOVE FAR ENOUGH E TO LIMIT PRECIP CHANCES. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH CONTINUED N-NW FLOW. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014 WIDESPREAD RAINS CONTINUE OVER THE REGION WITH CIGS MOSTLY IFR/LIFR WITH THE NOTABLE EXCEPTION AT KCMX. CIGS THERE HAVE VARIED THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE EVENING FROM IFR TO VFR DUE TO SOME DRIER AIR INTRUSION ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER AS DEPICTED BY UPSTREAM 0Z SOUNDINGS. CIGS SHOULD RETURN TO LOW END MVFR AS RAINS CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. WHILE IFR CIGS A POSSIBILITY AT KCMX...HAVE LEFT OUT FOR NOW AS SFC WINDS NOT AS FAVORABLE FOR LOW CIGS AS AN EASTERLY FLOW. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AS THE RAINS END FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. WITH UPSLOPE FLOW PERSISTING LONGEST AT KSAW...THAT SITE TO STAY IN IFR/LIFR THE LONGEST OF THE THREE SITES. KSAW TO SEE GUSTY WINDS UP TO 22 KTS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO BE A BIT STRONGER THERE THAN OVER THE WEST. KSAW MAY ALSO SEE RETURN OF SHOWER ACTIVITY LATE IN THE DAY BUT MOST OF THIS PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE CONCENTRATED FURTHER EAST WHERE BETTER FORCING TO EXIST && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 428 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014 EXPECT INCREASING NNE WINDS UP TO 30 KTS OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAKE INTO TONIGHT UNDER TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT TO THE N OF DEEP LO PRES MOVING TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THERE COULD BE SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS...ESPECIALLY AT THE HIER PLATFORMS. AS THE LO TO THE S SLOWLY WEAKENS LATER TONIGHT/WED AND A HI PRES RIDGE DRIFTS OVER THE UPPER LAKES LATER ON WED...EXPECT WINDS TO STEADILY DIMINISH UNDER 15 KTS ON WED NIGHT. RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WILL THEN PERSIST INTO FRI BEFORE A LO PRES IF FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND DEEPEN NEAR JAMES BAY. A SHARPENING PRES GRADIENT AROUND THIS FEATURE WILL BRING INCREASING NW WINDS...WHICH COULD REACH GALE FORCE ON SAT. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KC LONG TERM...TITUS AVIATION...RJT MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
418 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 429 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2014 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A SHARP TROF ACROSS THE CNTRL CONUS WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE IN THE BASE OF THE TROF BECOMING INCREASINGLY SEPARATED FROM THE FLOW IN THE NRN PORTION OF THE TROF. THE SHARP TROF HAS TAPPED ABUNDANT MOISTURE AS ANALYSIS OF 12Z RAOBS SHOWED PRECIPITABLE WATER UP TO AROUND 1 INCH ACROSS UPPER MI WHICH IS 175-200PCT OF NORMAL. RESULT HAS BEEN LOW CLOUDS DOMINATING THIS AFTN. SOME -DZ/-SHRA/SPRINKLES EARLIER TODAY HAVE ENDED...AND SO FAR THE AFTN HAS BEEN DRY. TONIGHT INTO TUE...FLOW IN THE UPSTREAM TROF WILL CONTINUE TO SEPARATE WHICH RESULTS IN THE SRN PORTION DEVELOPING INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS THE NRN PORTION SEPARATES...A WELL-DEFINED JET STREAK WILL DEVELOP FROM NRN ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC TONIGHT...PLACING THE UPPER LAKES UNDER HEALTHY UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF JET. DOWN BELOW...A RIBBON OF STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS DEVELOPS ACROSS THE FCST AREA. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASING UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES (NEAR 250PCT OF NORMAL) ACROSS THE FAR SE FCST AREA NEAR LAKE MI...STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE/FRONTOGENESIS SHOULD RESULT IN A SOLID AREA OF MDT TO LOCALLY HVY RAINFALL SPREADING NNE ACROSS ROUGHLY THE E HALF OF THE FCST AREA TONIGHT. BULK OF PCPN FALLS TONIGHT...BUT INCLUDING LINGERING PCPN TUE...EXPECT PCPN AMOUNTS OF 1 INCH OR MORE FROM MARQUETTE/DICKINSON COUNTIES EASTWARD WITH TOTALS OF 1.5 TO PERHAPS 2 INCHES TOWARD LAKE MICHIGAN. TYPICAL FOR THESE TYPE OF PCPN EVENTS WHICH HAVE A STRONG FRONTOGENESIS COMPONENENT...THERE SHOULD BE A FAIRLY SHARP W EDGE TO THE PCPN AREA. EXAMINATION OF THE NUMEROUS AVBL MODELS INDICATES THAT THE WRN EDGE OF THE PCPN AREA WILL PROBABLY BE JUST W OF UPPER MI. SO...WHILE PCPN AMOUNTS WILL TAIL OFF QUICKLY WESTWARD...LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS WILL BE CARRIED TO THE WRN EDGE OF UPPER MI. WITH UPPER JET ACROSS NRN ONTARIO SHIFTING E ALONG WITH THE RIBBON OF STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS...PCPN WILL DIMINISH FROM W TO E TUE MORNING AND WILL END OVER THE W. HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER FORCING REMAINS OVER MUCH OF UPPER MI THRU THE DAY...SO PLAN TO MAINTAIN A MENTION OF PCPN THRU THE AFTN OVER THE CNTRL AND E...WITH HIGHEST POPS TOWARD LAKE MI. AN UPPER JET STREAK ON THE E SIDE OF THE MID LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL BE ALIGNED FROM INDIANA UP LAKE MI/WRN LWR MI BY LATE IN THE DAY. UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE LEFT EXIT OF THIS JET STREAK WILL LIKELY SUPPORT ANOTHER AREA OF PCPN THAT MAY BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO SRN PORTIONS OF UPPER MI LATE IN THE DAY. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 418 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014 THE FORECAST FOR WED-WED NIGHT IS COMPLICATED BY SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER IL/IN. ADDITIONALLY...DETERMINING WHERE AND HOW MUCH PRECIP IS COMPLICATED BY A SHARP MOISTURE CUTOFF TO VERY DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A RIDGE AXIS JUST NW OF THE CWA. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP FAR NWRN UPPER MI DRY AS MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS TO BE THE CASE...BUT HAVE MINIMAL CONFIDENCE IN EXACT PRECIP AMOUNTS AND LOCATIONS OF GREATEST PRECIP. LACK OF CONFIDENCE CONTINUES THU AND THU NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW MERGES WITH A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SRN CANADA. MODELS SHOW A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING OVER OR NEAR THE CWA FRI AS A RESULT OF THE MERGER. UNCERTAINTY COMES FROM MODEL TO MODEL DISAGREEMENT AND RUN TO RUN DISCONTINUITY ON WHERE THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY TRACKS BEFORE/DURING THE MERGER. THE 12Z/13 ECMWF BRINGS THE REMNANTS OF THE LOW CURRENTLY OVER IL ACROSS THE CWA...WHILE THE 00Z/14 GFS MOVES THE REMNANTS WELL E AND THEN N OF THE CWA. THUS...THE ECMWF HAS LIGHT RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA ON THU AND THU NIGHT...WHILE THE GFS HAS ALMOST THE ENTIRE CWA DRY. THE GFS ALSO HAS BACKING FROM THE 00Z/14 NAM AND 12Z/13 GLOBAL GEM. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD CHANCES OF PRECIP OVER THE ERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA AND SLIGHT CHANCES ELSEWHERE. GIVEN CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE BEING MUCH DRIER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...DECIDED TO CUT POPS BACK SOME ON THU. IT DOES LOOK LIKE A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THU NIGHT OR EARLY FRI...WITH A REINFORCING COLD FRONT LATE FRI OR FRI NIGHT. AT THIS POINT...CONFIDENCE ACTUALLY INCREASES AS WNW-NW LOW LEVEL FLOW AND GREATER LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL LEAD TO LAKE EFFECT PRECIP FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT. FOR SUN AND MON...MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH WILL MOVE FAR ENOUGH E TO LIMIT PRECIP CHANCES. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH CONTINUED N-NW FLOW. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014 WIDESPREAD RAINS CONTINUE OVER THE REGION WITH CIGS MOSTLY IFR/LIFR WITH THE NOTABLE EXCEPTION AT KCMX. CIGS THERE HAVE VARIED THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE EVENING FROM IFR TO VFR DUE TO SOME DRIER AIR INTRUSION ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER AS DEPICTED BY UPSTREAM 0Z SOUNDINGS. CIGS SHOULD RETURN TO LOW END MVFR AS RAINS CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. WHILE IFR CIGS A POSSIBILITY AT KCMX...HAVE LEFT OUT FOR NOW AS SFC WINDS NOT AS FAVORABLE FOR LOW CIGS AS AN EASTERLY FLOW. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AS THE RAINS END FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. WITH UPSLOPE FLOW PERSISTING LONGEST AT KSAW...THAT SITE TO STAY IN IFR/LIFR THE LONGEST OF THE THREE SITES. KSAW TO SEE GUSTY WINDS UP TO 22 KTS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO BE A BIT STRONGER THERE THAN OVER THE WEST. KSAW MAY ALSO SEE RETURN OF SHOWER ACTIVITY LATE IN THE DAY BUT MOST OF THIS PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE CONCENTRATED FURTHER EAST WHERE BETTER FORCING TO EXIST && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 429 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2014 WEAK PRES GRADIENT AND LIGHT WINDS MOSTLY UNDER 10KT WILL BE THE RULE INITIALLY TONIGHT. THEN...AS LOW PRESSURE OVER SW MISSOURI SLOWLY LIFTS NE...N TO NE WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE. EXPECT N TO NE WINDS UP TO 20KT ON WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND UP TO 25KT ON ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THE LOW WILL THEN WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS NE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WED/THU...ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH. WINDS SHOULD BE UNDER 10KT BY THU. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS SRN CANADA THU WILL THEN MERGE WITH THE REMNANT GREAT LAKES LOW ON FRI IN THE VICINITY OF JAMES BAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN W TO NW WINDS INCREASING INTO THE 15-25KT RANGE ON FRI AND CONTINUING INTO SAT AS THE LOW MOVES LITTLE. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...ROLFSON LONG TERM...TITUS AVIATION...RJT MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
123 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 429 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2014 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A SHARP TROF ACROSS THE CNTRL CONUS WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE IN THE BASE OF THE TROF BECOMING INCREASINGLY SEPARATED FROM THE FLOW IN THE NRN PORTION OF THE TROF. THE SHARP TROF HAS TAPPED ABUNDANT MOISTURE AS ANALYSIS OF 12Z RAOBS SHOWED PRECIPITABLE WATER UP TO AROUND 1 INCH ACROSS UPPER MI WHICH IS 175-200PCT OF NORMAL. RESULT HAS BEEN LOW CLOUDS DOMINATING THIS AFTN. SOME -DZ/-SHRA/SPRINKLES EARLIER TODAY HAVE ENDED...AND SO FAR THE AFTN HAS BEEN DRY. TONIGHT INTO TUE...FLOW IN THE UPSTREAM TROF WILL CONTINUE TO SEPARATE WHICH RESULTS IN THE SRN PORTION DEVELOPING INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS THE NRN PORTION SEPARATES...A WELL-DEFINED JET STREAK WILL DEVELOP FROM NRN ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC TONIGHT...PLACING THE UPPER LAKES UNDER HEALTHY UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF JET. DOWN BELOW...A RIBBON OF STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS DEVELOPS ACROSS THE FCST AREA. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASING UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES (NEAR 250PCT OF NORMAL) ACROSS THE FAR SE FCST AREA NEAR LAKE MI...STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE/FRONTOGENESIS SHOULD RESULT IN A SOLID AREA OF MDT TO LOCALLY HVY RAINFALL SPREADING NNE ACROSS ROUGHLY THE E HALF OF THE FCST AREA TONIGHT. BULK OF PCPN FALLS TONIGHT...BUT INCLUDING LINGERING PCPN TUE...EXPECT PCPN AMOUNTS OF 1 INCH OR MORE FROM MARQUETTE/DICKINSON COUNTIES EASTWARD WITH TOTALS OF 1.5 TO PERHAPS 2 INCHES TOWARD LAKE MICHIGAN. TYPICAL FOR THESE TYPE OF PCPN EVENTS WHICH HAVE A STRONG FRONTOGENESIS COMPONENENT...THERE SHOULD BE A FAIRLY SHARP W EDGE TO THE PCPN AREA. EXAMINATION OF THE NUMEROUS AVBL MODELS INDICATES THAT THE WRN EDGE OF THE PCPN AREA WILL PROBABLY BE JUST W OF UPPER MI. SO...WHILE PCPN AMOUNTS WILL TAIL OFF QUICKLY WESTWARD...LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS WILL BE CARRIED TO THE WRN EDGE OF UPPER MI. WITH UPPER JET ACROSS NRN ONTARIO SHIFTING E ALONG WITH THE RIBBON OF STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS...PCPN WILL DIMINISH FROM W TO E TUE MORNING AND WILL END OVER THE W. HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER FORCING REMAINS OVER MUCH OF UPPER MI THRU THE DAY...SO PLAN TO MAINTAIN A MENTION OF PCPN THRU THE AFTN OVER THE CNTRL AND E...WITH HIGHEST POPS TOWARD LAKE MI. AN UPPER JET STREAK ON THE E SIDE OF THE MID LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL BE ALIGNED FROM INDIANA UP LAKE MI/WRN LWR MI BY LATE IN THE DAY. UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE LEFT EXIT OF THIS JET STREAK WILL LIKELY SUPPORT ANOTHER AREA OF PCPN THAT MAY BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO SRN PORTIONS OF UPPER MI LATE IN THE DAY. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 414 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2014 TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU...AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW WOBBLES THROUGH ILLINOIS...THE 12Z GFS AND ESPECIALLY THE 12Z ECMWF HAVE TRENDED FARTHER TO THE NORTHWEST WITH THE STRONGER 700-300 MB QVECTOR CONV AHEAD OF A SHRTWV ON THE NRN FLANK OF THE LOW WHILE THE NAM WAS AN OUTLIER IN KEEPING MOST OF THE CWA DRY. EVEN THOUGH THERE IS LINGERING UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM...MODELS CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THAT HIGHER POPS AND QPF ARE WARRANTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EAST. RAIN CHANCES WILL ALSO LINGER INTO WED NIGHT AND THU ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF THE CWA AS THE ECMWF/GFS REMAIN FAR ENOUGH TO THE WEST SO THAT ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE LOW BRING POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF LIGHT SHOWERS. THU NIGHT INTO SAT...WITH AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN DEVELOPING...THE WPC PREFERRED ECMWF SUGGESTS THAT THE WRN RIDGE WILL ALLOW THE NRN PLAINS TROUGH TO MERGE WITH THE GREAT LAKES LOW AND PERSIST INTO SATURDAY. AS THE SFC LOW MOVES INTO NE ONTARIO TO NEAR JAMES BAY NW WINDS AND CAA WILL TAKE OVER BRINGING IN COOLER AIR AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AS DEEPER MOISTURE PREVAILS. ENOUGH COLD AIR WILL MOVE IN BY FRI NIGHT INTO SAT FOR LAKE ENHANCED RAIN POTENTIAL FOR LOCATIONS FAVORED BY NW OR NNW FLOW. SUN-MON...THE GFS/GEFS/ECMWF SUGGEST THAT THE TROUGH WILL SLIDE FAR ENOUGH EAST TO REDUCE RAIN CHANCES WHILE NNW MID LEVEL LOW LINGERS. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014 WIDESPREAD RAINS CONTINUE OVER THE REGION WITH CIGS MOSTLY IFR/LIFR WITH THE NOTABLE EXCEPTION AT KCMX. CIGS THERE HAVE VARIED THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE EVENING FROM IFR TO VFR DUE TO SOME DRIER AIR INTRUSION ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER AS DEPICTED BY UPSTREAM 0Z SOUNDINGS. CIGS SHOULD RETURN TO LOW END MVFR AS RAINS CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. WHILE IFR CIGS A POSSIBILITY AT KCMX...HAVE LEFT OUT FOR NOW AS SFC WINDS NOT AS FAVORABLE FOR LOW CIGS AS AN EASTERLY FLOW. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AS THE RAINS END FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. WITH UPSLOPE FLOW PERSISTING LONGEST AT KSAW...THAT SITE TO STAY IN IFR/LIFR THE LONGEST OF THE THREE SITES. KSAW TO SEE GUSTY WINDS UP TO 22 KTS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO BE A BIT STRONGER THERE THAN OVER THE WEST. KSAW MAY ALSO SEE RETURN OF SHOWER ACTIVITY LATE IN THE DAY BUT MOST OF THIS PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE CONCENTRATED FURTHER EAST WHERE BETTER FORCING TO EXIST && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 429 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2014 WEAK PRES GRADIENT AND LIGHT WINDS MOSTLY UNDER 10KT WILL BE THE RULE INITIALLY TONIGHT. THEN...AS LOW PRESSURE OVER SW MISSOURI SLOWLY LIFTS NE...N TO NE WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE. EXPECT N TO NE WINDS UP TO 20KT ON WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND UP TO 25KT ON ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THE LOW WILL THEN WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS NE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WED/THU...ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH. WINDS SHOULD BE UNDER 10KT BY THU. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS SRN CANADA THU WILL THEN MERGE WITH THE REMNANT GREAT LAKES LOW ON FRI IN THE VICINITY OF JAMES BAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN W TO NW WINDS INCREASING INTO THE 15-25KT RANGE ON FRI AND CONTINUING INTO SAT AS THE LOW MOVES LITTLE. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...ROLFSON LONG TERM...JLB AVIATION...RJT MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1207 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014 LATEST UPDATE... AVIATION .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2014 SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE OVER MISSOURI MOVES SLOWLY NORTHEAST THEN STALLS OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE ALSO POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN STALLED OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE BUT IT WILL REMAIN MILD THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. A COOL DOWN IS ANTICIPATED FOR SATURDAY. && .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 605 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2014 I HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY LOWERED THE CHANCE OF RAIN TONIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THROUGH MIDNIGHT. I ALSO EXPUNGED THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT FROM THE FORECAST TONIGHT. TO KEEP ALL OF THE FORECAST DETAILS IN SYNC I ALSO LOWERED THE QPF SIGNIFICANTLY TONIGHT AND FOR THAT MATTER TUESDAY. THE UPDATED FORECAST DOES MATCH NICELY WITH THE LATEST FORECASTS FROM NEAR BY OFFICES THROUGH TUESDAY. MY MOTIVATION FOR DOING ALL THIS UPDATING IS THERE IS A 65 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET HEADING DUE NORTH TOWARD MKE CURRENTLY. WITH SUCH A STRONG JET GOING SO FAR WEST OF LOWER MICHIGAN... IT IS KEEPING THE DECENT MOISTURE FLUX OUT OF THIS AREA. THAT IDEA IS SHOWN NICELY WITH THE RAP 21Z 1000/850 MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS. THE BOTTOM LINE IS MOST OF THE RAIN WILL MISS SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT. WE COULD SEE A FEW STRAY SHOWERS OF COURSE BUT I DO BELIEVE MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHT TOO. IT DOES LOOK LIKE A SECOND LOW LEVEL JET IS AIMED AS SOUTH CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN TUESDAY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS... SO WE WILL LIKELY STILL SEE SOME RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT NOT NEARLY AS MUCH WAS WE WERE THINKING EARLIER. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2014 THE BULK OF THE STORM TOTAL RAIN FROM THIS EVENT FOR SW LWR MI APPEARS TO OCCUR ON TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW DRAWS CLOSER AND THE OCCLUSION IMPACTS THE AREA. MODEL TREND OVER THE LAST TWO RUNS HAS BEEN TO LIFT THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL TONIGHT WITHIN THE TROWAL FARTHER NORTHWEST WHICH ESSENTIALLY MEANS IT MISSES MOST OF THE CWFA WITH PERHAPS THE EXCEPTION OF LUDINGTON. IN FACT MOST MODEL STORM TOTAL RAINFALL SOLUTIONS ACTUALLY SHOW MUCH OF SW LWR MI IN A RELATIVE MINIMUM AREA OF QPF IN BETWEEN THE DEFORMATION ZONE TO THE NORTHWEST AND THE STRONG CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TO THE SOUTH. THAT SAID...WE SHOULD STILL SEE WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS NEAR AN INCH WITH LOCALLY AS MUCH AS TWO INCHES. THIS SHOULD NOT CAUSE TOO MUCH OF A PROBLEM ALTHOUGH WHERE HEAVY RAIN PERSISTS SOME PONDING OF WATER IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WHERE LEAVES CLOG STORM DRAINS. AS FAR AS THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT... THERE IS PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AVAILABLE BUT INSTABILITY IS LIMITED WITH GENERALLY 500 J/KG OR LESS OF MU CAPE AVAILABLE. THE COVERAGE OF STORMS SHOULD BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TONIGHT AND TUES. THE THING TO WATCH WILL BE THE 60 KNOT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET WHICH COMES IN TONIGHT. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME RATHER GUSTY SOUTH TO NORTH MOVING SHOWERS IN THE WARM SECTOR. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2014 MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED AS A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES MERGES WITH A DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH BEFORE IT FINALLY MOVES EAST. CYCLONIC FLOW AND SOME LAKE CONTRIBUTION OF MOISTURE SUPPORTS KEEPING CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING FOR EACH PERIOD FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SHORTWAVE RIDGING ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY SHOULD FINALLY DRY THINGS OUT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MODERATED BY THE CONTINUOUS CLOUD COVER UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WHEN CLEARING WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE 30S IN MOST PLACES. THE FLOW BECOMES HIGHLY AMPLIFIED EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A DEEP TROUGH AXIS OVER THE NE CONUS AND A SHARP RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS. THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS ON MONDAY AS A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS SOUTH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...BUT THE MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A LOT OF DRY AIR AT MID LEVELS...SO WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1208 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014 THE MAIN CHANGE TO THE TAFS WILL BE TO PUSH THE IFR CIGS BACK A FEW HOURS. LATEST NEPH ANALYSIS SHOWS VFR CIGS EXTENDING SW INTO ILLINOIS INTERSPERSED WITH SOME MVFR CIGS. THERE IS A BAND OF HEAVIER SHOWERS MOVING NORTH FROM INDIANA AND IT/S POSSIBLE WE COULD SEE BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. HOWEVER...THE MAIN AREA OF IFR...STILL BACK IN MISSOURI... SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...CLOSER TO MORNING. THEN GRADUALLY BECOMING MVFR AFTER 18Z. && .MARINE... ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2014 WHILE THE WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET COMES INTO THE AREA... THE SFC WINDS WILL HAVE A BIT OF AN OFFSHORE COMPONENT. THIS WILL KEEP THE WAVE HEIGHTS DOWN NEAR THE COAST BUT DESPITE THAT THE WIND SPEEDS ALONE MAY BECOME SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LATER TONIGHT. WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW. WEB CAMS SHOW THAT FOG IS NOT A MAJOR ISSUE ALONG THE SW LWR MI COASTLINE AND WITH THE WINDS INCREASING TONIGHT SEE NO NEED FOR A MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2014 STORM TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO BE LESS THAN PREVIOUS THINKING. GENERALLY AROUND A HALF INCH TO 2 INCHES IS EXPECTED. MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE LESS THAN AN INCH AND A HALF...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE TOWARD LUDINGTON. THE TREND IN THE 12Z MODELS IS TO PUSH THE SLOW-MOVING DEFORMATION BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE NORTHWEST. MOST OF THE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO FALL AFTER 00Z TUESDAY. RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS COULD RISE SHARPLY ON TUESDAY. CURRENT STREAMFLOW IN THE GRAND AND KALAMAZOO RIVER BASINS IS RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL. THERE COULD ALSO BE BRIEF MINOR URBAN FLOODING AND PONDING OF WATER IN LOW-LYING AREAS. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...WDM SYNOPSIS...MEADE SHORT TERM...MEADE LONG TERM...OSTUNO AVIATION...93 HYDROLOGY...EBW MARINE...MEADE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
1155 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1154 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014 WE WILL BE ISSUING A DENSE FOG ADVISORY SHORTLY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH/NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. VISIBILITIES HAVE DROPPED TO A QUARTER MILE OR LESS LATE THIS EVENING. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT INCREASING WINDS AS SEEN ON THE RAP AT 0.5 KM MAY LESSEN THE FOG LATER TONIGHT...BUT WE CAN ADJUST THE HEADLINE IF THAT DOES OCCUR. UPDATE ISSUED AT 916 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014 RAIN HAS MOVED FURTHER NORTHWEST INTO WISCONSIN THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...AND HAVE INCREASED POPS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014 AT 330 PM...A MIXTURE OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE CONTINUED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. THE RAIN AT THIS POINT WAS CONFINED TO MAINLY THE ARROWHEAD OF MN...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF RAIN SPREADING INTO NW WI FROM THE SOUTH. DRIZZLE PREVAILED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AS WELL AS SOME FOG. THE EXCEPTION WAS IN THE FAR WEST...WHERE THE LOW CLOUDS HAD STARTED TO CLEAR AND THERE WAS SOME FILTERED SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MID 40S IN THE ARROWHEAD TO THE MID 50S IN PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN WI. THE BIG FOCUS FOR TONIGHT WILL BE THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE ILLINOIS AREA BEFORE STALLING OUT AND EVENTUALLY MERGING WITH ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION INTO MUCH OF NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES OF OUR WISCONSIN CWA. COULD BE SOME DECENT RAINFALL...MAINLY OVER PRICE...IRON AND SOUTHEASTERN SAWYER COUNTIES. THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA WILL SEE A GRADUAL DECREASE IN DRIZZLE AND RAIN...AND A DECREASE IN OVERALL CLOUDS AS WELL. LOWS COULD REACH INTO THE MID 30S IN PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL MN. WITH THE DAMP GROUND FROM THE RAIN AND DRIZZLE TODAY...WE COULD SEE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME ADDITIONAL FOG AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. TUESDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A MILD DAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. WE COULD SEE HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS ON TUESDAY. .LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014 A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND PROMOTE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. LEANED ON THE COLDEST TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...AND THE WARMER GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY. THERE ARE LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS OVER THE FAR SE FORECAST AREA DUE TO A STACKED LOW MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO DISAPPEAR LATE THIS WEEK AS A LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA GRADUALLY MERGES WITH THE GREAT LAKES LOW. THE TWO SYSTEMS SHOULD MERGE OVER ONTARIO BY EARLY SATURDAY. THURSDAY WILL BE WARM AS SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AND CLOUDIER AS THE TWO LOWS MOVE INTO THE REGION AND MERGE. THERE WILL BE LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS...PRIMARILY OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN FORECAST AREA. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...BUT GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE LOWEST LEVELS WILL BE TOO WARM OR THAT THE COLD SATURATED LAYER ALOFT WILL BE TOO WARM TO SUPPORT MUCH ICE CRYSTAL DEVELOPMENT. THEREFORE...ONLY FORECASTED RAIN SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE NORTHLAND LATE THIS WEEKEND. THE REGION WILL REMAIN COOL IN NW FLOW SUNDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1154 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014 SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED NEAR THE IA/MO/IL COMMON BORDER LATE THIS EVENING WITH RAIN EXTENDING WELL NORTH INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN. CONDITIONS VARIED FROM LIFR IN FOG OVER FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA...TO IFR OVER MUCH OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...WITH SOME VFR IN BETWEEN. THE RAIN WILL SLOWLY DECREASE LATE TONIGHT...WITH MORE IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHLAND IN FOG. LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE COMMON OVER NORTHERN/NORTHEAST MINNESOTA TONIGHT IN DENSE FOG. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON TUESDAY AND CAUSE THE FOG TO DISSIPATE IN THE MORNING LEADING TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 43 59 39 58 / 10 0 0 0 INL 32 59 34 64 / 0 0 0 0 BRD 40 61 34 64 / 0 0 0 0 HYR 45 60 40 60 / 80 10 0 10 ASX 44 57 41 57 / 70 0 0 10 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR MNZ010-011-018-019- 025-026-033>035. WI...NONE. LS...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...MELDE SHORT TERM...DAP LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI AVIATION...MELDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1017 PM EDT WED OCT 15 2014 .SYNOPSIS... SHOWERS OCCASIONALLY HEAVY AT TIMES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. A FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY BRINGING AN END TO THE SHOWERS. THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE PRIMARILY DRY WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... 1015 PM UPDATE... RELATIVE LULL IN THE ACTION CURRENTLY AFTER A STRIPE 1 TO 3 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA...LOCALIZED REPORTS OF 2.5 TO 4 INCHES. IMPACTS HAVE BEEN ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS WHICH ARE SUBJECT TO POOR DRAINAGE FROM CONCRETE AND ADDITIONAL PROBLEM OF FALLEN LEAVES BLOCKING GRATES. SCRANTON AND UTICA IN PARTICULAR HAD A LOT OF WATER ON ROADS AND SOME TRAPPED CARS. VERY DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER...ALMOST 4 KM...AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO AROUND AN INCH-AND-THREE- QUARTERS...ARE VERY ANOMALOUS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE RESULTING WARM CLOUD PROCESSES IS LIKELY WHY RADAR HAS STRUGGLED TO ESTIMATE RAINFALL...EARLIER UNDERESTIMATING VERSUS REPORTS BY UP TO A FACTOR OF 2. RAIN RIGHT NOW IS ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH LESS BANDING COMPARED TO EARLIER. HOWEVER...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN PLACE OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING BECAUSE OF CONTINUED EXPECTED ROUNDS OF RAINFALL. NEW BAND NOW DEVELOPING AS EXPECTED IN THE DEL-MAR-VA AREA...AND THIS WILL RIDE LLJ QUICKLY INTO OUR REGION AS PER THE HI RES MODELS HRRR AND RUC...AND LOOKS LIKE THE NEW OPERATIONAL 00Z NAM THAT IS JUST COMING IN AS WELL. OUTSIDE OF THE URBAN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...WE WERE ABLE TO ABSORB THE INITIAL SHOT OF RAIN RATHER WELL DUE TO DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...NEW LOCALIZED ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN WILL BE MUCH MORE PRONE TO RUNNING OFF AND CAUSING ISSUES. THURSDAY MORNING CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE AS THE SURFACE OCCLUSION MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY...SYSTEM WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTH INTO EASTERN CANADA WITH REGION UNDER A FAIRLY DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE IN THE 60S. FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW NOW MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST US WILL TRACK INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND CARVE OUT ANOTHER DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF WITH THIS CURRENT FEATURE AND PUSH A SFC COLD FRONT THROUGH ON SATURDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS DURING THIS PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... S/WV EMBEDDED IN THE NWLY FLOW BEHIND THE PARTING UPR LOW WILL PASS THROUGH THE RGN IN THE SAT NGT/SUNDAY TIME FRAME. ANOTHER S/WV APRCHS FOR MON NGT/TUE AND PASSES TO OUR SOUTH. CARRIED LOW CHC POPS FOR BOTH OF THESE SYSTEMS. IN BETWEEN THEM...GNRLY FAIR WX. HPC GUIDANCE LOOKED GREAT AND WAS USED FOR THE MED RNG. TEMPS GNRLY BLO NORMAL WITH MAXES U40S TO M50S...MINS 30-35. && .AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... 00Z UPDATE... SURGE OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE UP THE EASTERN SIDE OF A LARGE UPPER LOW...HAS RESULTED IN WAVES OF RAIN WHICH HAVE BEEN AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE HEAVY AT TIMES WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS...ESPECIALLY KAVP-KBGM-KRME. EVEN WHERE RAIN DOES NOT FALL AS HARD THOUGH...EXPECTING DEVELOPMENT OF IFR CIGS AND/OR FOG OVERNIGHT. STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WITHIN LOWEST 2 KFT AGL WILL BREACH LLWS CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING AT KAVP...BUT PROBABLY NOT QUITE AT THE OTHER TERMINALS /THOUGH THIS POTENTIAL WILL BE MONITORED/. RAIN WILL TAPER OFF THU MORNING...CLOUDS MAY BE A LITTLE SLOWER TO ERODE BUT EVENTUAL VFR ANTICIPATED LATE MORNING-EARLY AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION. OUTLOOK... THU NGT...MVFR IN SCT -SHRA. FRI/FRI NGT...VFR. SAT/SAT NGT...MVFR WITH -SHRA PSBL. SUN...IMPRVG TO VFR. MON...VFR. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR PAZ038>040-043- 044-047-048-072. NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR NYZ009-036-037- 045-046-055>057-062. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RRM NEAR TERM...MDP SHORT TERM...RRM LONG TERM... AVIATION...MDP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1147 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014 THE HIGH CLOUDS HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE EASTERN-SOUTHEASTERN FCST AREA LEAVING A CLEAR SKY OVER THE FORECAST AREA. WITH A LIGHT WIND TEMPS DROPPING BLO MOST GUIDANCE LEVELS SO LOWERED LOWS SOME IN MOST AREAS ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES. HRRR ONLY SHOWS FOG POTENTIAL IN THE FAR EASTERN FCST AREA WASKISH-BEMIDJI-PARK RAPIDS AREA BUT WITH LIGHT WIND AND TEMPS COOLING TO THE DEW PTS MOST AREAS KEPT THE PATCHY CWA WORDING. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014 THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT...AND NO PREFERENCE THIS AFTERNOON. FOR TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION AND IT SHOULD BE CLEAR. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG IN ALL AREAS AFTER 5Z...GIVEN SOME RAIN IN THE PAST 24HR AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW/MID 40S THIS AFTERNOON. WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE THREAT FOR DENSE FOG AS WELL GIVEN THE FAIRLY HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS/MOISTURE. ON TUESDAY...IT WILL BE A CHAMBER OF COMMERCE DAY WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS...NEARLY FULL SUNSHINE AND TEMPS INTO THE LOW/MID 60S. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014 FOR WED...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AND IT SHOULD BE BREEZY/WINDY BY AFTERNOON FROM THE VALLEY WEST. TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN WARM INTO THE LOW/MID 60S...PERHAPS NEAR 70 IN THE WEST WITH VERY WARM AIR ALOFT. IT WILL REMAIN DRY WITH NEARLY FULL SUNSHINE ONCE AGAIN. ON THURSDAY...SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS NEAR WINNIPEG AND A COOL FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SWITCHING WINDS TO THE WEST BY AFTERNOON. EVEN WITH THE COOLER AIR ALOFT MOVING IN...TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE 60S WITH FAVORABLE WARM WESTERLY WINDS. FOR NOT WILL KEEP IT DRY ALTHOUGH THERE SHOULD BE SOME MORE CLOUDS AROUND. FOR THU NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WILL START OFF WITH A BROAD 500MB LOW NEAR THE FA THAT WILL TRACK SLOWLY EASTWARD THRU FRI NIGHT. THE 12Z OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE IN REGARD TO THE CORRESPONDING SFC LOW PLACEMENT SO THE PCPN FIELDS DO NOT SHOW MUCH AGREEMENT EITHER. THEREFORE HAVE KEPT MOST OF THE FA IN A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT PCPN THU NIGHT THRU FRIDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH THE BETTER CHANCES MAY BE ACROSS NORTHWEST MN. RIDGING SLOWLY RETURNS BEHIND THIS SYSTEM BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPS FOR LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014 CLEAR SKY OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW CIRRUS MOVING IN LATER TUESDAY. LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING TURNING LIGHT SOUTHERLY 5-10 KTS WED AFTN IN ERN ND/WRN MN. MAIN CHALLENGE IS FOG POTENTIAL AND LATEST SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS BEST POTENTIAL REMAINS IN THE WASKISH-BEMIDJI-PARK RAPIDS AREAS. BUT AS OBSERVED FROM BEMIDJI OBS IT IS A GROUND FOG SITUATION SO VSBYS VARIABLE. KEPT TEMPO FOR SOME 2SM IN FOG AT GFK/FAR/TVF AS WELL AS PREV FCST. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...RIDDLE SHORT TERM...DK LONG TERM...GODON/DK AVIATION...RIDDLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
610 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE OVER MISSOURI WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST ACROSS LAKE ERIE BY THURSDAY MORNING AND ON TO JAMES BAY BY FRIDAY NIGHT PULLING A SERIES OF COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL STAY OVER THE EASTERN LAKES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... A FEW SHRA HAVE SPREAD OUT FURTHER EAST THAN THE MODELS HAD PROJECTED EARLIER SO HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. THE MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN SLOWLY MOVING A BAND OF SHRA/TSRA EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA TODAY INTO WED MORNING. SOME SHEAR PRESENT BUT INSTABILITY NOT OVER GREAT. SPC KEEPING SVR THREAT SOUTH OF THE AREA. MAY SEE SOME STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS SINCE WINDS WILL ALREADY BE GUSTING AROUND 30 TO 40 MPH ANYWAY...BUT CURRENTLY DON`T EXPECT SIGNIFICANT SEVERE STORMS. THE OTHER THREAT COULD BE FROM FLOODING IF SOME OF THE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN LINGERS OVER ANY PARTICULAR AREA. IN GENERAL...LOOKING FOR .75 TO 1.5 INCHES OF RAINFALL AS THE SLOW MOVING BAND MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA. 3 HR FLOOD GUIDANCE RANGING BETWEEN 2 AND 3 INCHES SO IT CURRENTLY APPEARS THAT WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE AN INCH AND A HALF OR LESS OF RAINFALL WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOODING SO WON`T PUT UP A FLOOD WATCH. TODAY WILL BE THE LAST WARM DAY FOR A WHILE...MAYBE FOR THE REST OF THE SEASON. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE 70S...RANGING FROM MOSTLY LOWER 70S IN THE WEST WHERE THE RAIN ARRIVES THIS MORNING TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN THE EAST. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... THE LAST OF THE SLOW MOVING BAND OF RAIN SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE CWA DURING THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF DAYLIGHT WED MORNING. A DRIER SLOT OF MID LEVEL AIR PUSHES ACROSS THE CWA IN THE WAKE OF THE RAIN BAND SO EXPECT A BREAK IN THE RAINFALL FOR A WHILE. LATER IN THE DAY...SOME DAYTIME WARMING UNDER THE UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL LIKELY TRIGGER SOME CONVECTIVE SHRA AS THE LOWER LEVELS STILL STAY FAIRLY MOIST. ISOLATED THUNDER MAY OCCUR BUT MOSTLY LOOKING FOR JUST SHRA DUE TO WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER. THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW WILL TAKE UNTIL LATE THU NIGHT TO LIFT NE OF THE CWA SO THE AIRMASS WILL STAY UNSTABLE WITH CLOUDS AND GOOD CHANCES FOR SHRA HANGING AROUND INTO THU NIGHT. DRIER AIR SHOULD START PUSHING NE ACROSS THE AREA THU NIGHT INTO FRI CAUSING THE THREAT FOR SHRA TO SHIFT INTO MAINLY THE NE BY FRI. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SE ACROSS THE AREA FRI EVENING. MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THIS FRONT BUT WITH ADDED HELP FROM LAKE ERIE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME SHRA IN THE NE. TEMPS WED THRU FRI SHOULD RUN CLOSE TO NORMAL SINCE THE COLDER AIR DOES NOT START TO ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER THE FRONT PASSES FRI NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THE MODELS HAVE THE SAME IDEA BUT TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE UPPER TROF AND SURFACE FEATURES FOR THE PERIOD. SOME LAKE INDUCED SHOWERS MAINLY OVER EXTREME NE OH AND NW PA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO INDICATE A LOT MORE QPF THEN WOULD BE EXPECTED. CONTINUED THE TREND TO KEEP MOST OF THE RAIN SHOWERS IN THE SNOW BELT AREA. THE LAKE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE WILL BE AROUND 15 TO 16C. ON SUNDAY THE ECMWF HAS HIGH PRESSURE OVER MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES WHILE THE GFS HAS THE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND A TROF OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. CONTINUED CHANCE POPS IN THE SNOW BELT AREA SUNDAY. BY MONDAY THE ECMWF MOVES THE HIGH TO THE EAST AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES WHILE THE GFS HAS A RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. KEPT MONDAY DRY AT THIS TIME UNTIL THE TRENDS ARE CLEARER. HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. IN THE MEANTIME THE AREA OF RAIN OVER INDIANA WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST AS THE 700 MB FLOW IS SOUTHERLY. THE HRRR MODELS TIMING IS GOOD IN BRINGING THE SHOWERS INTO TOL AND FDY AROUND 11Z AND THEN IT TRIES TO SHIFT SOME SHOWERS EASTWARD A LITTLE TOO FAST. WENT WITH A SLOWER TIMING OF THE SHOWERS GETTING TO MFD AROUND 15Z AND CLE 18Z AND ERI 23Z. IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS MVFR CONDITIONS BUT THE PREDOMINANT MAY BE VFR...NOT TOTALLY CONFIDENT IN THAT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED IN THE SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. CONFIDENT IN THAT IS LOW...SO NO MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. VFR CONDITIONS AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE DURING THE OVERNIGHT. MENTIONED SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT A FEW SPOTS WHERE THE WINDS ARE LIGHT AS THE WINDS ALOFT ARE BECOMING STRONG QUICKLY. SOME QUESTION HOW STRONG THE WINDS WILL GET. ONCE THE SHOWERS START THE WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE AROUND NOON MAINLY OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND A PORTION OF NE OHIO INCLUDING MFD AND CLE AND POSSIBLY CAK. THE 850 MB WINDS GET TO AROUND 70 KTS AT NOON WHICH IS STRONG EVEN IN WARM ADVECTION. .OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO THURSDAY. && .MARINE... VERY UNSETTLED ON THE LAKE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. A LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVING THROUGH THE THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THE NEXT FEW DAYS WAS CAUSING A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND INCREASING STRONG WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE FOR TODAY. THE LAKE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE WILL BE NIL SO SOME MIXING WILL OCCUR. BECAUSE OF THAT WILL ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS DECREASING BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING. THE WAVES IN THE NEARSHORE WILL NOT BE THAT HIGH. SOME QUESTION TO THE TIMING WHETHER THE WINDS WILL DECREASE BEFORE EVENING OVER THE WESTERN LAKE. AT THIS TIME WITH THE UNCERTAINTY WILL TO WITH AN EXPIRATION TIME OF 9 PM ON THE WEST END AND 10 PM ON THE EAST. THE WINDS ON WEDNESDAY WILL NOT BE TOO STRONG AS THE LOW WEAKENS. ON THURSDAY A WEAK FRONT OR TROF MOVES THROUGH AND THAT COULD CAUSE WINDS AND WAVES NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON THE EAST END OF THE LAKE. ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE FRIDAY AND THAT WILL DEFINITELY PROMPT THE NEED FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS WINDS COULD GET UP TO 30 KNOTS. THAT THREAT WILL LAST INTO SUNDAY ON THE ENTIRE LAKE AND POSSIBLY INTO EARLY MONDAY ON THE EAST END. THE THREAT FOR SUSTAINED WINDS REACHING GALE FORCE FRIDAY NIGHT IS POSSIBLE AS THE COLD ADVECTION IS SIGNIFICANT AND THE WINDS ALOFT ARE NEAR 35 KNOTS...THIS THREAT WILL BE MONITORED. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ146>149. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ142>145. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ADAMS NEAR TERM...ADAMS SHORT TERM...ADAMS LONG TERM...KIELTYKA AVIATION...KIELTYKA MARINE...KIELTYKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
329 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE OVER MISSOURI WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST ACROSS LAKE ERIE BY THURSDAY MORNING AND ON TO JAMES BAY BY FRIDAY NIGHT PULLING A SERIES OF COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL STAY OVER THE EASTERN LAKES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... THE MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN SLOWLY MOVING A BAND OF SHRA/TSRA EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA TODAY INTO WED MORNING. SOME SHEAR PRESENT BUT INSTABILITY NOT OVER GREAT. SPC KEEPING SVR THREAT SOUTH OF THE AREA. MAY SEE SOME STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS SINCE WINDS WILL ALREADY BE GUSTING AROUND 30 TO 35 MPH ANYWAY...BUT CURRENTLY DON`T EXPECT SIGNIFICANT SEVERE STORMS. THE OTHER THREAT COULD BE FROM FLOODING IF SOME OF THE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN LINGERS OVER ANY PARTICULAR AREA. IN GENERAL...LOOKING FOR .75 TO 1.5 INCHES OF RAINFALL AS THE SLOW MOVING BAND MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA. 3 HR FLOOD GUIDANCE RANGING BETWEEN 2 AND 3 INCHES SO IT CURRENTLY APPEARS THAT WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE AN INCH AND A HALF OR LESS OF RAINFALL WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOODING SO WON`T PUT UP A FLOOD WATCH. TODAY WILL BE THE LAST WARM DAY FOR A WHILE...MAYBE FOR THE REST OF THE SEASON. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE 70S...RANGING FROM MOSTLY LOWER 70S IN THE WEST WHERE THE RAIN ARRIVES THIS MORNING TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN THE EAST. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... THE LAST OF THE SLOW MOVING BAND OF RAIN SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE CWA DURING THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF DAYLIGHT WED MORNING. A DRIER SLOT OF MID LEVEL AIR PUSHES ACROSS THE CWA IN THE WAKE OF THE RAIN BAND SO EXPECT A BREAK IN THE RAINFALL FOR A WHILE. LATER IN THE DAY...SOME DAYTIME WARMING UNDER THE UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL LIKELY TRIGGER SOME CONVECTIVE SHRA AS THE LOWER LEVELS STILL STAY FAIRLY MOIST. ISOLATED THUNDER MAY OCCUR BUT MOSTLY LOOKING FOR JUST SHRA DUE TO WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER. THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW WILL TAKE UNTIL LATE THU NIGHT TO LIFT NE OF THE CWA SO THE AIRMASS WILL STAY UNSTABLE WITH CLOUDS AND GOOD CHANCES FOR SHRA HANGING AROUND INTO THU NIGHT. DRIER AIR SHOULD START PUSHING NE ACROSS THE AREA THU NIGHT INTO FRI CAUSING THE THREAT FOR SHRA TO SHIFT INTO MAINLY THE NE BY FRI. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SE ACROSS THE AREA FRI EVENING. MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THIS FRONT BUT WITH ADDED HELP FROM LAKE ERIE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME SHRA IN THE NE. TEMPS WED THRU FRI SHOULD RUN CLOSE TO NORMAL SINCE THE COLDER AIR DOES NOT START TO ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER THE FRONT PASSES FRI NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THE MODELS HAVE THE SAME IDEA BUT TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE UPPER TROF AND SURFACE FEATURES FOR THE PERIOD. SOME LAKE INDUCED SHOWERS MAINLY OVER EXTREME NE OH AND NW PA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO INDICATE A LOT MORE QPF THEN WOULD BE EXPECTED. CONTINUED THE TREND TO KEEP MOST OF THE RAIN SHOWERS IN THE SNOW BELT AREA. THE LAKE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE WILL BE AROUND 15 TO 16C. ON SUNDAY THE ECMWF HAS HIGH PRESSURE OVER MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES WHILE THE GFS HAS THE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND A TROF OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. CONTINUED CHANCE POPS IN THE SNOW BELT AREA SUNDAY. BY MONDAY THE ECMWF MOVES THE HIGH TO THE EAST AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES WHILE THE GFS HAS A RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. KEPT MONDAY DRY AT THIS TIME UNTIL THE TRENDS ARE CLEARER. HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. IN THE MEANTIME THE AREA OF RAIN OVER INDIANA WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST AS THE 700 MB FLOW IS SOUTHERLY. THE HRRR MODELS TIMING IS GOOD IN BRINGING THE SHOWERS INTO TOL AND FDY AROUND 11Z AND THEN IT TRIES TO SHIFT SOME SHOWERS EASTWARD A LITTLE TOO FAST. WENT WITH A SLOWER TIMING OF THE SHOWERS GETTING TO MFD AROUND 15Z AND CLE 18Z AND ERI 23Z. IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS MVFR CONDITIONS BUT THE PREDOMINANT MAY BE VFR...NOT TOTALLY CONFIDENT IN THAT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED IN THE SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. CONFIDENT IN THAT IS LOW...SO NO MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. VFR CONDITIONS AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE DURING THE OVERNIGHT. MENTIONED SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT A FEW SPOTS WHERE THE WINDS ARE LIGHT AS THE WINDS ALOFT ARE BECOMING STRONG QUICKLY. SOME QUESTION HOW STRONG THE WINDS WILL GET. ONCE THE SHOWERS START THE WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE AROUND NOON MAINLY OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND A PORTION OF NE OHIO INCLUDING MFD AND CLE AND POSSIBLY CAK. THE 850 MB WINDS GET TO AROUND 70 KTS AT NOON WHICH IS STRONG EVEN IN WARM ADVECTION. .OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO THURSDAY. && .MARINE... VERY UNSETTLED ON THE LAKE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. A LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVING THROUGH THE THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THE NEXT FEW DAYS WAS CAUSING A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND INCREASING STRONG WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE FOR TODAY. THE LAKE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE WILL BE NIL SO SOME MIXING WILL OCCUR. BECAUSE OF THAT WILL ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS DECREASING BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING. THE WAVES IN THE NEARSHORE WILL NOT BE THAT HIGH. SOME QUESTION TO THE TIMING WHETHER THE WINDS WILL DECREASE BEFORE EVENING OVER THE WESTERN LAKE. AT THIS TIME WITH THE UNCERTAINTY WILL TO WITH AN EXPIRATION TIME OF 9 PM ON THE WEST END AND 10 PM ON THE EAST. THE WINDS ON WEDNESDAY WILL NOT BE TOO STRONG AS THE LOW WEAKENS. ON THURSDAY A WEAK FRONT OR TROF MOVES THROUGH AND THAT COULD CAUSE WINDS AND WAVES NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON THE EAST END OF THE LAKE. ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE FRIDAY AND THAT WILL DEFINITELY PROMPT THE NEED FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS WINDS COULD GET UP TO 30 KNOTS. THAT THREAT WILL LAST INTO SUNDAY ON THE ENTIRE LAKE AND POSSIBLY INTO EARLY MONDAY ON THE EAST END. THE THREAT FOR SUSTAINED WINDS REACHING GALE FORCE FRIDAY NIGHT IS POSSIBLE AS THE COLD ADVECTION IS SIGNIFICANT AND THE WINDS ALOFT ARE NEAR 35 KNOTS...THIS THREAT WILL BE MONITORED. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ146>149. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ142>145. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ADAMS NEAR TERM...ADAMS SHORT TERM...ADAMS LONG TERM...KIELTYKA AVIATION...KIELTYKA MARINE...KIELTYKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
202 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL LAKES LATE TOMORROW DRAGGING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK SO NO CHANGES NEEDED FOR MIDNIGHT UPDATE. DRY FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE OVERNIGHT WITH THE WARM FRONT TO THE NORTH OF US. SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN MAKING THEIR WAY TOWARD THE I-75 CORRIDOR TOWARD MORNING. SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AND KEEP TEMPERATURES UP. OTHER THAN POSSIBLY ACROSS THE FAR EAST WHERE LOWS MAY DIP INTO THE UPPER 50S...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... MODELS IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE THE SLOW MOVING SURFACE LOW...NOW CENTERED OVER MISSOURI. LOW FORECAST TO MOVING INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS TOMORROW AND ONLY TO BE NEAR CHICAGO BY TOMORROW EVENING. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TOMORROW AND WONT BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL TOMORROW EVENING. SPC HAS EXTENDED THE SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE TSRA ON TUESDAY TO THE OHIO RIVER. STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL LAKES LATE TOMORROW SO THERE WILL BE LIFT. HOWEVER...WILL BE LATE AND WITH THE RAIN CAPE WILL BE LIMITED. DID NOT ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH BECAUSE OF THE TIMING AND THE FACT THAT IT HAS BEEN SO DRY LATELY. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. CHANCE POPS CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AND MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA. AS IT DOES SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA. THIS FAR OUT DID NOT TRY TO TIME EACH SHORT WAVE JUST KEPT CHANCE POPS GOING. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THE NEXT PIECE OF JET ENERGY DIVING INTO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PASS OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS WITH IT AND THE THREAT OF SOME LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS OVER NE OHIO AND NW PA IN ITS WAKE. THESE LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO SUNDAY. FRIDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH HIGHS VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL AVERAGES. COOLER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. IN THE MEANTIME THE AREA OF RAIN OVER INDIANA WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST AS THE 700 MB FLOW IS SOUTHERLY. THE HRRR MODELS TIMING IS GOOD IN BRINGING THE SHOWERS INTO TOL AND FDY AROUND 11Z AND THEN IT TRIES TO SHIFT SOME SHOWERS EASTWARD A LITTLE TOO FAST. WENT WITH A SLOWER TIMING OF THE SHOWERS GETTING TO MFD AROUND 15Z AND CLE 18Z AND ERI 23Z. IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS MVFR CONDITIONS BUT THE PREDOMINANT MAY BE VFR...NOT TOTALLY CONFIDENT IN THAT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED IN THE SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. CONFIDENT IN THAT IS LOW...SO NO MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. VFR CONDITIONS AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE DURING THE OVERNIGHT. MENTIONED SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT A FEW SPOTS WHERE THE WINDS ARE LIGHT AS THE WINDS ALOFT ARE BECOMING STRONG QUICKLY. SOME QUESTION HOW STRONG THE WINDS WILL GET. ONCE THE SHOWERS START THE WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE AROUND NOON MAINLY OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND A PORTION OF NE OHIO INCLUDING MFD AND CLE AND POSSIBLY CAK. THE 850 MB WINDS GET TO AROUND 70 KTS AT NOON WHICH IS STRONG EVEN IN WARM ADVECTION. .OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO THURSDAY. && .MARINE... LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO TUESDAY BEFORE IT BEGINS A SLOW MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS LOW WILL SLOWLY FILL AS IT DRIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR INCREASING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS ON TUESDAY. WINDS MAY END UP BEING STRONG ENOUGH TO NEED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UP UNTIL A COLD FRONT PASSES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL DECREASE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT BUT SHOULD REMAIN SOUTHWESTERLY AS ANOTHER PIECE OF JET ENERGY DIVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES TROUGH. THIS SHOULD BRING A REINFORCING SURGE OF COOLER AIR ACROSS THE LAKE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE IN ITS WAKE WITH A SMALL CRAFT LIKELY NEEDED FOR AT LEAST THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LAKE. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DJB NEAR TERM...DJB/OUDEMAN SHORT TERM...DJB LONG TERM...MULLEN AVIATION...KIELTYKA MARINE...MULLEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORMAN OK
1149 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014 .AVIATION... CLOUDS HAVE EXITED THE TAF SITES AND CLEAR SKIES SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 850 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014/ UPDATE... WIND SPEEDS HAVE DECREASED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS SO WIND ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO DROP. RAIN HAS ALSO MOVED EAST OF THE AREA AND CLOUDS CONT TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST. COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS UPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE FA. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 656 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014/ AVIATION... SKIES ARE CLEARING THIS EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST AND CLOUDS HAVE EXITED ALL BUT KPNC... KOKC AND KOUN AS OF THE LATEST OBS. CIGS ARE VFR WHERE CLOUDS REMAIN. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014/ DISCUSSION... PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS FOCUSED ON RAIN ENDING AND STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS. CURRENTLY... LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD OUT OF CENTRAL OK. EXPECT PRECIP TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING... SLOWLY TAPERING OFF ACROSS THE OKC METRO THROUGH 4- 5 PM CDT. RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR APPEAR TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THE PRECIP TRENDS... SO LEFT A SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING... 7-10PM FOR LOCATIONS ALONG I-35 IN N CENTRAL OK. STRONG NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST ACROSS WRN AND CENTRAL OK THROUGH THE EVENING. THROUGH 300 PM CDT... SITES ACROSS WRN OK CONTINUE TO REPORT GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH... WHERE CLEARING CONTINUES... THUS RESULTING IN BETTER BL MIXING. WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH THE EVENING... RELAXING GRADUALLY AFTER SUNSET. NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUE... PICKING UP THROUGH THE LATE MORNING/AFTN WITH INCREASED MIXING DUE TO DAY TIME HEATING. NOT AS WINDY AS TODAY... GUSTS TMRW WILL APPROACH 20 TO 30 MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND ERN OK. WITH NW WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH TUE... TEMPS WILL ONLY TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S ACROSS OK... AND MID 70S IN WRN N TX. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK... INTO THE WEEKEND... RIDGING WILL DEVELOP WED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. IN RESPONSE... SOUTH WINDS WILL RETURN... RESULTING IN A GRADUAL WARM UP THROUGH SUN. NOT RECORD WARMTH... BUT HIGHS WILL BE A 5-7 DEGREES ABOVE AVG... IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AT TIMES FROM WED-SUN. LATE THIS WEEKEND... LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING HINTS OF ANOTHER H500 SHORTWAVE... SO PRECIP CHANCES MAY RETURN LATE SUN-MON. JTK && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... OKLAHOMA CITY OK 45 70 45 76 / 10 0 0 0 HOBART OK 44 73 45 78 / 0 0 0 0 WICHITA FALLS TX 46 75 47 80 / 0 0 0 0 GAGE OK 40 72 41 78 / 0 0 0 0 PONCA CITY OK 46 70 42 72 / 10 0 0 0 DURANT OK 48 73 48 76 / 10 0 0 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...NONE. TX...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
647 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A DEEP UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEK. A PRECEDING PLUME OF DEEP GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL BRING A SOAKING RAIN TO ALL OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. COOLER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... EXAMINATION OF SATL-DERIVED PWAT LOOP AND LATEST RAP OUTPUT SHOWS A PLUME OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE THE CENTRAL PA THIS EVENING...PRODUCING A BIT OF LGT RAIN/DRIZZLE WHERE FLOW ASCENDS THE CENTRAL MTNS. HAVE ADJUSTED EVENING POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS AND REMOVE MENTION OF PRECIP ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY. MAIN FOCUS REMAINS WITH UPPER LOW AND ASSOC LL JET OVR THE OHIO VALLEY WITH IT/S PLUME OF GULF OF MEX MOISTURE. LATEST MDL DATA CONTINUES TO INDICATE RAIN ASSOC WITH ANOMALOUS LL JET/PWATS WILL OVERSPREAD THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU AND CENTRAL MTNS LATE TONIGHT. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND LOCAL UPSLOPE INTO THE LAURELS AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL MAKE FOR INCREASING POPS OVR THE W COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH NR 100 POPS BY DAWN...AS THE RIBBON OF HIGHLY ABOVE NORMAL PW REACHES THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU. SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS COULD EXCEED 30 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT OVR THE HIGH TERRAIN OF WESTERN PA. GIVEN CURRENT DWPTS AND CONTINUED MOISTURE ADVECTION OVERNIGHT...DON/T SEE ANY AREAS DROPPING BLW 60F TONIGHT...AND THE SUSQ VALLEY IS LIKELY TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE M/U60S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... IMPRESSIVE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING THE PASSAGE OF THE SLOW EASTWARD MOVING FRONTAL ZONE...COMPLICATED BY A SFC WAVE LIFTING NORTHWARD ALONG IT...WILL BE THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FOCUS ON WEDNESDAY. DESPITE WEAKENING BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS...THE SYSTEM WILL PACK A PUNCH THROUGHOUT CENTRAL PA...AND WILL PRODUCE MARGINAL CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS AND A 3 TO 6 HOUR PERIOD OF CONVECTIVE RAINFALL IN MOST AREAS. AS ALWAYS...WITH SUCH STRONG SPEED SHEAR...LOW LCLS AND THE PRESENCE OF WEAK TO MODERATE CAPE ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW STRONGER BOWING OR ROTATING CELLS ALONG THE LARGER CONVECTIVE LINE. WE REMAIN IN SEE TEXT AREA FROM SPC WED AFTN. THE MAIN THREAT WEDNESDAY WILL BE SOAKING RAINFALL ALONG THE SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY. LATEST MDL BLENDED QPF RANGES FROM CLOSE TO AN INCH ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY...TO ARND 2 INCHES OVR THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. HOWEVER...CONVECTION WILL LIKELY LEAD TO LOCALIZED HIGHER AMTS. 12Z CONVECTION ALLOWING MDL RUNS SHOW THE POTENTIAL OF LOCAL 3"+ AMOUNTS...WHICH COME IN ON THE LOWER END OF 3-HR AND 6-HR FFG GUIDANCE. IN GENERAL...EXPECT A BENEFICIAL RAINFALL RATHER THAN A FLOOD THREAT GIVEN OUR RECENT DRY SPELL. HEAVIEST RAINFALL OVER EASTERN AREAS MAY NOT BE DONE BY LATE AFTERNOON...BUT DRIER AIR WILL SWEEP INTO WESTERN AREAS BY MID AFTERNOON WITH A FAIRLY SHARP CUTOFF EXPECTED TO THE HIGHER INTENSITY RAINFALL. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BUFFET THE RIDGE TOPS...AND LOCATIONS NORTH OF RIDGE GAPS. MAX TEMPS WILL LKLY RANGE FROM THE LOW 60S OVR THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU TO THE L/M70S ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... BROAD AND DEEP/CLOSED H5 CYCLONE CENTERED INVOF THE OH/IN/KY BORDER AT 16/0000Z WILL PIVOT SLOWLY ENEWD INTO W-CNTRL PA BY 17/0000Z. BY THIS TIME A KICKER SYSTEM CROSSING THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST WILL FORCE THE AMPLIFIED EASTERN U.S. SYSTEM INTO A PROCESS OF OPENING/WEAKENING INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND BY EARLY FRIDAY. THIS PROCESS APPEARS TO BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE NRN KICKER SYSTEM ENERGY IS ABSORBED AND FEEDS INTO THE ERN CONUS MEAN TROUGH. WHAT ULTIMATELY HAPPENS WITH THIS ENERGY REMAINS UNDECIDED FROM A MODEL PERSPECTIVE AS THE SUBTLE SHORTWAVE DIFFS WILL LKLY IMPACT THE SHARPNESS OF THE TROUGH ALONG WITH THE PROGRESSION OF EMBEDDED SFC FRONTS. TAKEN AS A WHOLE...THE INCORPORATION OF THE UPSTREAM ENERGY SHOULD ALLOW THE TROUGH TO RELOAD OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND NORTHEAST STATES INTO THE WEEKEND. ENSEMBLE MEANS AND TELECONNECTIONS FAVOR PERSISTENT ERN CONUS TROUGHING INTO NEXT WEEK. HVY RAIN THREAT SHOULD SHIFT EWD OUT OF THE CWA WED NGT ALONG WITH THE STG SLY LLJ AND AXIS OF ANOMALOUS MSTR/PWS. HOWEVER EXPECT WEATHER CONDITIONS TO REMAIN UNSETTLED AND `SHOWERY` ON THURS AS THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH LIFTS NEWD ACROSS THE AREA. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL KEEP THE CHC OF SHOWERS IN THE FCST ALONG THE ALLEGHENY FRONT/NW PLATEAU HOWEVER PCPN LOOKS TO BE VERY LGT/SPOTTY OVER THESE AREAS FRI. FRONTAL PASSAGE EMBEDDED WITHIN BROAD CYC FLOW ALOFT SHOULD OCCUR AROUND SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A CHUNK OF SUB- ZERO AIR AT 850MB SAT NGT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THIS MAY SUPPORT SOME SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE FAVORED HIGH ELEVATIONS/UPSLOPE AREAS ALONG THE WRN RIDGES AND DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE. HP SHOULD PROVIDE MAINLY DRY WEATHER SUN INTO MON. ONE OR MORE REINFORCING SFC FRONTAL PASSAGES ALONG WITH MEAN TROUGHING SHOULD SUPPORT SEASONABLY COOL...NEAR-TO-BELOW AVG TEMPERATURES DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE WED NGT LOW TEMPS WHICH WILL STILL BE RELATIVELY MILD BY MID OCT STANDARDS. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON WITH PERSISTENT LLVL SOUTHEAST FLOW AND INCREASINGLY MOIST DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. AIR FIELDS SHOULD SEE 15G30KT RANGES FOR MUCH OF THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH LOCALLY STRONGER GUSTS DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS...WEST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT. MVFR TO IFR REDUCTIONS RETURN BY MID EVE AS LOW CLOUDS AGAIN OVERSPREAD THE REGION. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BREEZY AT THE SURFACE AS 850MB FLOW APPROACHES 50KTS...CONTINUING THIS PROLONGED PERIOD OF LLWS. THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH A STRONG FRONT THROUGH THE REGION LATE TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED EVE. STRONG FLOW WILL KEEP WINDS GUSTY AND LLWS ONGOING. WIDESPREAD REDUCTIONS WILL ALSO PERSIST WITH OTHER IMPACTS BEING AN APPROX 12HR PERIOD OF RAIN AND POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS /IN THE WEST DURING THE DAY WED AND IN THE EAST WED AFT AND EVE/. OUTLOOK... WED...COLD FRONT. WIDESPREAD REDUCTIONS. PERIODS OF RAIN AND SCATTERED TSTMS. LLWS. BREEZY. THU...SCT SHOWERS WITH RESTRICTIONS LIKELY. IMPROVING LATE. LIGHTER WINDS. FRI...MAINLY VFR. SAT-SUN...MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT MVFR CIGS AND CHC SHRA/SHSN NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD LONG TERM...STEINBUGL AVIATION...DEVOIR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
956 PM EDT WED OCT 15 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION EARLY TUESDAY. A CANADIAN AIR MASS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 930 PM...WV IMAGERY AND RAP DATA SHOW POTENT VORT DIVING ESE TOWARD THE BASE OF DEEP CLOSED UPPER LOW. FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO RING OUT NUMEROUS NC MTN SHOWERS... ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH CHANCES STEADILY DECREASING...YET STILL POSSIBLE INTO THE FTHLS OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE... CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS...OVERCAST FOR MANY LOCALES... WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY MORNING. AS OF 515 PM...SLUG OF DEEP MOISTURE AHEAD OF VORT ROTATING THRU DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACRS THE MTNS AND FTHLS THIS EVENING. ACRS THE PIEDMONT...SCT CLOUDS SHOULD GIVE WAY TO THICKER CLOUDINESS...AND LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AS WELL. AS OF 250 PM...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE OH VALLEY TO THE GREAT LAKES THRU THE PERIOD. A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND THE LOW AND ACROSS THE AREA THRU THE PERIOD AS WELL. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS ACROSS THE AREA IN THE SWLY FLOW AROUND THE UPPER LOW. THE FORCING FROM THE SHORT WAVES COMBINED WITH WEAK INSTABILITY FROM THE COLD MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL INTERACT WITH THE MOISTURE TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS TO SCT SHRA ACROSS THE MTNS TONIGHT AND THU. SHRA SHUD REMAIN ISOLATED ELSEHWERE UNTIL LATE THU AFTERNOON WHEN THE FLOW FINALLY TURNS NWLY AS THE LAST OF THE SHORT WAVES MOVES EAST AND TAKES THE TROF AXIS TRAILING THE UPPER LOW EAST AS WELL. EVEN WHERE SHRA DO NOT DEVELOP...THERE SHUD BE QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDINESS BEFORE THE WINDS FINALLY TAKE ON A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT LATE ON THU. RIGHT NOW...IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT INSTABILITY WILL BE STRONG ENUF AND MID LEVEL TEMPS COLD ENUF FOR SMALL HAIL OR GRAUPEL TO DEVELOP IN THE STRONGER SHRA. THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT...BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF DENSE FOG GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS AND AT LEAST LIGHT MIXING WITH THE SWLY WINDS. GUSTY WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING THEN RETURN ON THU. LOWS TONIGHT SHUD BE NEAR NORMAL...WHILE HIGHS THU WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE MTNS AND A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL ELSEWHERE. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... AT 230 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...THE FINAL VESTIGES OF THE UPPER LOW WILL BE DEPARTING OUR FORECAST AREA (FA) THURSDAY EVENING. STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE TO LINGER SMALL POPS ALONG THE SPINE OF THE NC MOUNTAINS THROUGH PART OF THE EVENING...BEFORE THE UPPER TROF TOTALLY LOOSES ITS GRIP ON OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER AND LIFTS FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST. OTHERWISE CLEARING SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES ON TAP WITH SOME 30S IN THE NC VALLEYS BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. MODEL GUIDE INDICATING DECENT FOG POTENTIAL IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...AND WILL START US OUT AT THAT POINT. UPPER LEVEL FLOW FLATTENS OUT FRIDAY ACROSS MOST OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS...EXCEPT FOR A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW IN THE GREAT LAKES. DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD RESULT IN SUNNY SKIES...AND OVERALL THERMAL PATTERN IS NUDGED UP...AS A RESULT TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY. WE WILL HAVE A QUIET FRIDAY NIGHT AND NOT AS CHILLY...AS A DRY COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. AS THE GREAT LAKES UPPER TROF PIVOTS TO THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CONUS...THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT DIVES THROUGH OUR REGION. THE GULF OF MEXICO IS COMPLETELY BLOCKED OFF...AND BUFKIT ONLY SHOWING SOME MID OR HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. THEREFORE WE WILL MAINTAIN A FAIR WEATHER FORECAST. MEANWHILE THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE LOWER LEVEL THERMAL PATTERN (H85) NUDGING DOWN (GETTING COOLER). HOWEVER WE BELIEVE UNDERNEATH THE 5K LAYER THERE WILL BE A NICE THERMAL RESPONSE TO NEARLY FULL SUNSHINE BEFORE ANY COOLING CAN SETTLE IN. AS A RESULT WE ARE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDE PACK FOR TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY. THE EXCEPTION IS IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE WE STARTED THE NOTED COOL-DOWN SATURDAY...QUICKER THAN POINTS SOUTH AND EAST. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AT 220 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...SUNDAY...12Z GFS INDICATES THAT THE H5 TROF AXIS WILL RIPPLE OFF THE EAST COAST...LEAVING DRY NW FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES LATE THIS WEEKEND. A PERIOD OF MTN WAVE CLOUDS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NC FOOTHILLS ON SUN. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR...DRY...AND COOL. I WILL FORECAST TEMPERATURES AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. ON MONDAY...A CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM RIPPLES ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE NC MTNS COULD BE BRUSHED BY MOIST LLVL NW FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER. I WILL KEEP CLOUDS ACROSS THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS RANGING WITHIN PARTLY CLOUDY...WITH ISO SHRA ACROSS THE NRN MTNS MON NIGHT. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER CANADIAN AIR MASS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD DIP 5-7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. && .AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AT KCLT...SOLID VFR LVL CLOUD DECK TO OVERSPREAD THE TERMINAL THIS EVENING WITH CIGS PERHAPS LOWERING TO 5K FEET AT SOME POINT TONIGHT. WSW WINDS ABT 6 KTS TO LINGER THRU THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE VEERING TO NW IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS A SMALL POSSIBILITY OF SEEING A SHOWER THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ELSEHWERE...CIGS...MAINLY VFR LVL OVC TO PERSIST TONIGHT WITH SHOWER CHANCES CONTINUING...ESPECIALLY ACRS THE MOUNTAINS. WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AND CONTINUED MIXING FROM WINDS...STILL DO NOT EXPECT ANY IFR FOG...BUT MVFR PROBABLE AT KAVL. LOWER CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP FROM THE WEST TOWARD THE BLUE RIDGE TONIGHT AND DROP TO MVFR...POSSIBLY IFR OVERNIGHT AT KAVL. LOW VFR CIGS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THRU THE END OF THE PERIOD...EXCEPT AT KAND WHERE THEY SCATTER OUT AFTER DAYBREAK. KAVL HAS THE BEST CHC OF SEEING ANY SHRA THIS PERIOD...BUT EVEN THERE...CHCS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ATTM. OUTLOOK...DRYING WILL DEVELOP FRI. A COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM THE NW THIS WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE TABLE... 02-08Z 08-14Z 14-20Z 20-02Z KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% KAVL HIGH 83% HIGH 81% HIGH 85% HIGH 100% KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 83% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 97% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE) WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. NC...NONE. SC...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NED NEAR TERM...CSH/RWH SHORT TERM...TS LONG TERM...NED AVIATION...CSH/RWH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
455 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND THEN OFFSHORE BY TOMORROW NIGHT. AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 420 PM UPDATE...DESPITE THE VERY ACTIVE FCST IT APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK WRT THE NEWEST GUIDANCE...WARRANTING ONLY RATHER MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR SKY/POP TO BETTER LINE UP WITH REALITY. BAND OF CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT IS NOW JUST ENTERING THE CWFA DOES NOT APPEAR TO POSE ANY IMMEDIATE THREAT OF SVR WX...BUT EMBEDDED HEAVY RAIN IS BEING CLOSELY MONITORED. IT STILL APPEARS THE SVR THREAT WITH THIS LINE WILL TREND UPWARD TONIGHT AS THE RR QUAD OF UPPER JET COMES OVERHEAD. LATEST COUPLE RUNS OF THE HRRR SUGGEST THE LINE WILL BECOME SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED UNTIL IT ENTERS THE I-77 CORRIDOR A LITTLE BEFORE MIDNIGHT...WHEN IT DEVELOPS A SHORT QLCS. AS OF 250 PM EDT TUESDAY...RATHER POTENT UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT THE NEAR TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. LATEST DAY ONE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FROM SPC CONSUMES THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WITHIN THE SLIGHT RISK REGION...WITH AN ADDITIONAL 5 PERCENT AREA FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES. THIS COINCIDES WITH VERY IMPRESSIVE SHEAR PROFILES ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING LONGWAVE TROF...UPPER JET...AND BACKED FLOW AT THE SURFACE. MOST RECENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES INCREASING INSTABILITY AMONGST CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH ALMOST THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA REACHING INTO THE 500-1000J/KG RANGE. CONVECTIVE ALLOWING GUIDANCE SOURCES CONTINUE TO INDICATE STRENGTHENING OF A SECONDARY LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH ARE NOW PUSHING THROUGH NORTH/CENTRAL GA. IMPROVED UPPER SUPPORT BACKED BY AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED UPPER JET MAX WILL PROVIDE AMPLE DIVERGENCE/LIFT IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS TO AID THE ABOVE MENTIONED CONVECTION THIS EVENING...AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT DESPITE HEATING LOSS. LONG RIGHT TURNING HODOGRAPHS IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ARE INDICATIVE OF IMPRESSIVE SHEAR THROUGH THE PROFILE. BACKED FLOW AT THE SURFACE COULD SUPPORT TORNADOGENESIS WITHIN THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. THUS THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE ISOLATED AND SHORT LIVED TORNADOES ALONG WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. IN ADDITION...CONTINUED HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH THE DAY TODAY WILL PROVIDE SUPPORTIVE ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS FOR POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING WITHIN AND ADJACENT TO ANY OF THE STRONGER CELLS THROUGH THE FIRST 12 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THUS THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT. WIND ADVISORY ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN WILL LIKELY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES BEHIND THE FROPA OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AFTER DAYBREAK AS THE FRONT SLIDES INTO CENTRAL NC AND THE MIDLANDS OF SC. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RATHER STATIONARY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FEATURED IN THE FORECAST. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... AT 200 PM EDT TUESDAY...A DEEP CLOSED UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO BE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WED EVENING. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE NE AND WEAKEN THROUGH FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR ZONAL FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE CAROLINAS AND NE GA BY LATE WEEK. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES NE WED NIGHT THE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA. THE ASSOCIATED DPVA WILL CONTINUE TO TRIGGER SOME SCT SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN NC. THE SHOWERS WILL BE MOST NUMEROPUS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WHERE NW FLOW WILL ENHANCE LIFT. A FEW NW FLOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO THU MORNING OVER THE NC MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NW WITH CLEARING COMMENCING DURING THU. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN CONTROL THE WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURE WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL ON THURSDAY...WARMING TO NEAR CLIMO ON FRIDAY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD NEAR NORMAL BY CLOUD COVER WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN WILL FALL BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY NIGHT WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... AT 215 PM EDT TUESDAY...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN U.S. EARLY IN THE WEEKEND AND THEN TRANSITION EASTWARD ALLOWING FOR ZONAL FLOW TO DEVELOP BY LATE SUNDAY. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK AND MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TUESDAY. AT THE SURFACE A DRY COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CP HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SE OVER THE AREA SAT INTO SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL EAST TO THE COAST ON MONDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. THE MONDAY NIGHT FRONT MAY TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR CLIMO. && .AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AT KCLT...MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHRA/TSRA MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT LEADING TO VISB/CIG RESTRICTIONS. SEVERE TSRA POTENTIAL WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WITH ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE EXPECTED TO SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT...BUT EVENTUALLY A COLD FROPA WILL CUT OFF THE TS RISK. INITIALLY...CLUSTERS OF WARM SECTOR SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST PROMPTING INITIAL TEMPO FOR TSRA THRU 00Z WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS LIKELY. EXPECTING A BRIEF LULL IN THE ACTIVITY BEFORE A SECOND LINE ASSOCIATED WITH ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER IMPULSE MOVES INTO THE REGION EARLY MORNING. THE FRONT ITSELF WILL CLEAR THE REGION BY MID/LATE MORNING ALLOWING CIG/VISB RESTRICITONS TO IMPROVE FOR THE LATER QUARTER OF THE TAF CYCLE. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. ELSEWHERE...AS WITH KCLT ABOVE EXPECTING A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS TO HIGHLIGHT THE TAF CYCLE AT ALL SITES AS MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED. CURRENT SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY ACROSS THE UPSTATE AND WESTERN NC WILL SLIDE EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON WITH THE TAFS HIGHLIGHTING SUCH VIA TEMPOS WITH SLIGHT TIMING ADJUSTMENTS BASED UPON SITE LOCATION. A SECONDARY LINE OF CONVECTION IS PROGGED TO SLIDE INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST BY LATE AFTERNOON...BEFORE PUSHING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. EXPECTING FURTHER CIG/VISB RESTRICTIONS WITH HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE SEVERE +TSRA WITH THIS SECOND LINE THUS PREVAILED SUCH AT EACH LOCATION. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH LOW STRATUS ERODING BY EARLY MORNING ACROSS THE WEST...MID/LATE MORNING FURTHER EAST. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY AS STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH WINDS SUBSIDING BEHIND THE FRONT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCES RELAX. OUTLOOK...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY WED. GRADUAL DRYING WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE MID TO LATE WEEK. CONFIDENCE TABLE... 21-03Z 03-09Z 09-15Z 15-21Z KCLT HIGH 85% MED 79% HIGH 81% HIGH 100% KGSP HIGH 90% MED 73% HIGH 94% HIGH 100% KAVL MED 70% MED 79% HIGH 90% HIGH 100% KHKY HIGH 81% MED 76% HIGH 85% HIGH 97% KGMU HIGH 91% MED 69% HIGH 95% HIGH 100% KAND HIGH 85% HIGH 88% HIGH 91% HIGH 100% THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE) WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR GAZ010-017. NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NCZ033-048>053-058- 059-062>065-501>506. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NCZ033-048>053- 058-059-062>065-501-503-505. SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR SCZ001-002. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JAT NEAR TERM...CDG/WIMBERLEY SHORT TERM...LG LONG TERM...LG AVIATION...CDG/WIMBERLEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MEMPHIS TN
932 PM CDT WED OCT 15 2014 .UPDATE... MIDEVENING GOES IR IMAGERY SHOWED MIDLEVEL OVERCAST CLOUDINESS... ROUGHLY NORTHEAST OF A TUPELO TO MEMPHIS TO JONESBORO LINE. DAYTIME TEMPS WERE CONSIDERABLY COOLER UNDER THE OVERCAST...BUT LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WERE ALLOWING AREAS TO THE SOUTHWEST TO COOL MORE QUICKLY. SOME CONCERN FOR PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT...NEAR THE CLEARING LINE. 12Z HRRR MODEL PROGGED BRIEF /1 HOUR/ VISIBILITY REDUCTION TO 4 MILES NEAR CORINTH AND JACKSON...BUT OTHERWISE LITTLE FOG POTENTIAL. PWB && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 PM CDT WED OCT 15 2014/ UPDATE... UPDATED TO ADD 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT WED OCT 15 2014/ DISCUSSION... CURRENT H5 ANALYSIS PLACES AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER CENTRAL INDIANA WITH THE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...EASTERN TENNESSEE...AND PORTIONS OF GEORGIA AND ALABAMA. AN ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW IS ALSO CENTERED IN CENTRAL INDIANA WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST. THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS BROAD UPPER TROUGH HAS PROVIDED CLOUD COVER ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY AND ALSO PRODUCED VERY LIGHT SHOWERS EARLIER IN THE DAY. OVERNIGHT CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST WITH NO SIGNIFICANT POPS AS LOWS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR MID OCTOBER. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON THURSDAY AS UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS BUILD OVER THE AREA. WINDS FROM THE EAST WILL BE LIGHTER AND WILL SHIFT ON THURSDAY NIGHT TO BE FROM THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER ON FRIDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH THIS FRONT...SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY SIGNIFICANT POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER ON SATURDAY UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE RAIN FREE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL PROVIDE PLEASANT CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MODELS INDICATE A SHORTWAVE MOVING JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE MIDSOUTH ON MONDAY. NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE LIES IN CURRENT SOLUTIONS AND MODELS DO NOT INDICATE MUCH MOISTURE PRESENT FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT POPS. FOR NOW HAVE JUST INCLUDED PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR PARTS OF THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY PM WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCES FOR POPS. AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST MOVES FURTHER EAST...MODELS INDICATE A RIDGE MOVING INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. THUS HAVE KEPT CONDITIONS DRY LATE IN THE PERIOD. ZDM && .AVIATION... 00Z TAF CYCLE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL INCREASE TO WEST WINDS BETWEEN 5-7 KTS AFTER 16/15Z. CJC && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...NONE. MO...NONE. MS...NONE. TN...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
117 PM CDT TUE OCT 14 2014 .UPDATE... /ISSUED 1103 AM CDT TUE OCT 14 2014/ CURRENTLY SKIES ARE CLOUDY AND TEMPS ARE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE REGION. SOME SHOWERS ARE PRESENT IN THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS DOWN A BIT IN SOME AREAS AND POPS UP ACCORDING TO RECENT TRENDS AND THE LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE. UPDATED GRIDS AND ZONES ARE AVAILABLE. ZDM && .DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 AM CDT TUE OCT 14 2014/ IR SATELLITE SHOWING MERIDIONAL FLOW ACROSS THE COUNTRY WITH A RIDGE DOMINATING THE WESTERN HALF AND A SECOND ALONG THE EAST COAST. SANDWICHED BETWEEN WAS THE CURRENT STORM/UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED IN NORTHEAST MISSOURI...WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE HANGING BACK ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND AS FAR SOUTH AS THE ARKLATEX. CLOSER TO HOME PATCHY AREAS OF POST FRONTAL LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE WAS OCCURRING UNDER CLOUDY SKIES...WHILE WINDS WERE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST OCCASIONALLY GUSTING TO NEAR 20 MPH IN THE DELTA. TEMPERATURES HAVE SHOWN ONLY SLIGHT COOLING SINCE MIDNIGHT WITH MANY READINGS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. FOR TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT STACKED STORM IN THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL SLOWLY MEANDER EAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST...KEEPING CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND BREEZY WEATHER IN THE MIDSOUTH. ONLY CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS A BUMP UP TO OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS THE NORTH DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND AN ANTICIPATED MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. BEST THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS...BOTH THIS AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WILL LIE EAST OF A CORNING ARKANSAS TO A SAVANNAH TENNESSEE LINE. THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE MIDSOUTH STARTING THURSDAY AS THE WESTERN RIDGE MOVES INTO THE PLAINS AND DEAMPLIFIES. THIS WILL RESULT IN A MORE ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW...BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY A WARMER AND DRIER TREND FOR OUR AREA. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BACK MORE SOUTHERLY...WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO ABOVE NORMAL. MANY FOLKS WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. ONE THING TO NOTE THOUGH...THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE LOWER TENNESSEE RIVER COUNTIES ON THURSDAY. BY LATE FRIDAY THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE FIRST OF TWO DESCENDING SHORTWAVES IN THE UPPER MIDWEST. THESE FEATURES WILL CARVE OUT A NEW TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION AND SEND A COUPLE OF WEAK COLD FRONTS THROUGH THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH THE FIRST FRONT LATE FRIDAY...WITH ONLY PASSING CLOUDS CURRENTLY EXPECTED. THE SECOND WILL HAVE A BIT MORE ENERGY AND MOISTURE...GIVING THE MIDSOUTH MORE CLOUD COVER AND A THREAT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS FROM LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HAVE GONE COOLER THAN THE EXTENDED MODEL FORECASTS WITH TEMPERATURES STARTING SATURDAY...BUT THIS WILL ONLY RESULT IN THE REGION STAYING VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS. JAB && .AVIATION... 18Z TAF SET SCATTERED SHRAS CURRENTLY CONTINUE ACROSS THE CWA. CIGS HAVE LIFTED TO VFR. EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER BACK TO MVFR DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. W WINDS OF 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 22 KTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z. SPEEDS WILL DECREASE DOWN TO 8-10 KTS DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN BY 15Z. KRM && && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...NONE. MO...NONE. MS...NONE. TN...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1103 AM CDT TUE OCT 14 2014 .UPDATE... CURRENTLY SKIES ARE CLOUDY AND TEMPS ARE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE REGION. SOME SHOWERS ARE PRESENT IN THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS DOWN A BIT IN SOME AREAS AND POPS UP ACCORDING TO RECENT TRENDS AND THE LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE. UPDATED GRIDS AND ZONES ARE AVAILABLE. ZDM && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 AM CDT TUE OCT 14 2014/ IR SATELLITE SHOWING MERIDIONAL FLOW ACROSS THE COUNTRY WITH A RIDGE DOMINATING THE WESTERN HALF AND A SECOND ALONG THE EAST COAST. SANDWICHED BETWEEN WAS THE CURRENT STORM/UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED IN NORTHEAST MISSOURI...WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE HANGING BACK ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND AS FAR SOUTH AS THE ARKLATEX. CLOSER TO HOME PATCHY AREAS OF POST FRONTAL LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE WAS OCCURRING UNDER CLOUDY SKIES...WHILE WINDS WERE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST OCCASIONALLY GUSTING TO NEAR 20 MPH IN THE DELTA. TEMPERATURES HAVE SHOWN ONLY SLIGHT COOLING SINCE MIDNIGHT WITH MANY READINGS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. FOR TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT STACKED STORM IN THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL SLOWLY MEANDER EAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST...KEEPING CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND BREEZY WEATHER IN THE MIDSOUTH. ONLY CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS A BUMP UP TO OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS THE NORTH DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND AN ANTICIPATED MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. BEST THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS...BOTH THIS AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WILL LIE EAST OF A CORNING ARKANSAS TO A SAVANNAH TENNESSEE LINE. THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE MIDSOUTH STARTING THURSDAY AS THE WESTERN RIDGE MOVES INTO THE PLAINS AND DEAMPLIFIES. THIS WILL RESULT IN A MORE ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW...BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY A WARMER AND DRIER TREND FOR OUR AREA. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BACK MORE SOUTHERLY...WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO ABOVE NORMAL. MANY FOLKS WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. ONE THING TO NOTE THOUGH...THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE LOWER TENNESSEE RIVER COUNTIES ON THURSDAY. BY LATE FRIDAY THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE FIRST OF TWO DESCENDING SHORTWAVES IN THE UPPER MIDWEST. THESE FEATURES WILL CARVE OUT A NEW TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION AND SEND A COUPLE OF WEAK COLD FRONTS THROUGH THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH THE FIRST FRONT LATE FRIDAY...WITH ONLY PASSING CLOUDS CURRENTLY EXPECTED. THE SECOND WILL HAVE A BIT MORE ENERGY AND MOISTURE...GIVING THE MIDSOUTH MORE CLOUD COVER AND A THREAT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS FROM LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HAVE GONE COOLER THAN THE EXTENDED MODEL FORECASTS WITH TEMPERATURES STARTING SATURDAY...BUT THIS WILL ONLY RESULT IN THE REGION STAYING VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS. JAB && .AVIATION... 12Z TAF CYCLE (14/12Z-15/12Z) MVFR CEILINGS WILL OCCUR TODAY ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. CONDITIONS MAY DROP TO IFR THIS MORNING WITH AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN. SW TO W WINDS 10-15 KTS AND GUSTY. AFTER 15/00Z...CEILINGS LIFTING TO MOSTLY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS LINGERING AROUND KMKL. WESTERLY WINDS DIMINISHING TO BETWEEN 6 AND 9 KTS. JCL && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...NONE. MO...NONE. MS...NONE. TN...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GREEN BAY WI
514 PM CDT TUE OCT 14 2014 NEW INFORMATION ADDED TO UPDATE SECTION .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 444 PM CDT TUE OCT 14 2014 HAVE RECEIVED NUMEROUS REPORTS OF DOWNED TREES AND POWER OUTAGES FM MAINLY E-C WI WITH THE SURGE OF STG NE WINDS THAT OCCURRED THIS AFTN. WE/VE SEEN SURGES OF STG NE WINDS AHEAD OF CYCLONES IN THE PAST...BUT IN MOST CASES THE STG WINDS SURGED SWWD DOWN THE LAKE AND BAY AND WERE DUE PRIMARILY TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ITSELF AND MIXING INTO STG NELY FLOW AT 925-850 MB. THIS TIME THE STRONG WINDS SURGED NWD ACRS THE AREA...AN INDICATION THAT SOMETHING A LITTLE DIFFERENT WAS OCCURRING. MESOPLOTS INDICATED STG 1-HOUR PRESSURE FALL CENTER LIFTG NWD THROUGH ERN WI AT THE TIME THE STG WINDS WERE OCCURRING...WHICH WOULD BE CONSISTENT WITH A GRAVITY WAVE GENERATED BY STG UPR SPEED MAX HEADING UP THE ERN SIDE OF THE SHARP UPR TROF ACRS THE RGN. THAT ALSO FITS WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OCCURRING NR THE BACK EDGE OF THE BAND OF PCPN MOVG THROUGH THE AREA AT THAT TIME. THE STRONGEST WINDS WERE NOW IN THE NE CORNER OF THE FCST AREA...SO THE EFFECTS OF THE FEATURE SHOULD PUSH OUT OF THE AREA IN THE NEXT HR OR SO. HOWEVER...NOW WE ARE IN A MORE TYPICAL SITN WHERE STG NE WINDS IN THE 925-850 MB LAYER WERE IN PLACE OVER THE BAY AND WRN LAKE MICHIGAN. RAP ACTUALLY EDGES THE 925 MB WINDS UP TO 50 KTS OVER THE BAY ARND MIDNIGHT BEFORE THEY START BACK DOWN. LOW-LEVEL STABILITY IS NOT AS FAVORABLE FOR MIXING AS IT COULD BE AS AIR TEMPS ARE FAIRLY MILD. BUT...STILL THINK THIS SET-UP WL KEEP FAIRLY STG/GUSTY WINDS GOING OVER ERN WI THROUGH THE EVENING...THOUGH PEAK WIND SPEEDS SHOULD NOT BE AS HIGH AS THIS AFTN. PCPN IS ALSO LIKELY TO INCR AGAIN OVER ERN WI AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE EVENING. && .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT TUE OCT 14 2014 A BAND OF SHOWERS MOVED ACROSS NORTHEAST WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON. ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE LINE OF SHOWERS...GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS WERE REPORTED ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN FOR AN HOUR OR TWO. NUMEROUS TREES OR TREE BRANCHES WERE DOWN ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH POWER OUTAGES. THIS BAND OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA BY THIS EVENING. FOLLOWED THE HRR FOR PRECIPITATION TRENDS TONIGHT. THIS MODEL WOULD SUGGEST A BREAK/LULL IN THE ACTION EARLY THIS EVENING WITH INCREASING CHANCES AS THE EVENING PROGRESS AS SHORTWAVE PIVOTS AROUND THE UPPER LOW. WILL HAVE LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS IN THE FAR EAST WITH LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FAR WEST LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. DID LOWER MIN TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FAR NORTH TONIGHT WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME CLEARING LATE THIS TONIGHT. WARMEST TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE ACROSS THE WEST WHERE MORE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED. .LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT TUE OCT 14 2014 MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE TRENDED BETTER TO A SOLUTION WITH RESPECT TO THE DEPARTURE OF THE UPPER LOW SYSTEM FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL DIMINISH POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AND START OUT WITH A BRIEF DRIER PERIOD THURSDAY AS A WEAK RIDGE DRIFTS OVER THE STATE. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE WITH A COOLER CANADIAN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DROP INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. TEMPS ARE MARGINALLY COOL ENOUGH FOR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MIXED WITH THE RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE FAR NORTH. WILL LEAVE OUT THE MENTION FOR NOW SINCE DEALING WITH LOWER END POP CHANCES. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SLIDES OVER LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...FOLLOWED WITH ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS. PROGS ARE STILL SUGGESTING THE UPPER RIDGE TO BEGIN TO BUILDING INTO THE AREA AFTER NEXT MONDAY FOR A DRIER AND MILDER PERIOD. && .AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE ISSUED AT 1129 AM CDT TUE OCT 14 2014 UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...THEN AWAY FROM WISCONSIN ON WEDNESDAY. WEAK SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL BRING PERIODIC CHANCES FOR RAIN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A BATTLE OF DRIER AIR WORKING IN FROM THE WEST AND THE SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW THAT WILL DETERMINE HOW FAR WEST THE PRECIPITATION WILL MAKE. ONCE THE PRECIPITATION ENDS THIS AFTERNOON...WILL NOT MENTION PRECIPITATION IN THE 18Z TAF AT KRHI...WHILE ANY PRECIPITATION AT KAUW/KCWA WOULD LINGER INTO THE EVENING AS SHOWERS PIVOT AROUND THE UPPER LOW. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE FOR KGRB/KATW/KMTW...ALTHOUGH SHOULD BE DECREASING LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH DRIER MOVING INTO THE REGION SHOULD BRING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE.........SKOWRONSKI SHORT TERM.....ECKBERG LONG TERM......TDH AVIATION.......ECKBERG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
403 PM CDT TUE OCT 14 2014 ADDED AVIATION AND MARINE SECTIONS .TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. THE OCCLUDED SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL IL. THIS SYSTEM IS CAUSING SEVERAL COMPLEX WEATHER FEATURES OVER SOUTHERN WI WHERE THE SURFACE/925MB FRONT EXTENDS NORTHWARD FROM THE LOW. ALL BUT FAR SOUTHEAST WI NEAR KENOSHA HAVE SWITCHED OVER TO NORTHERLY WINDS WITH THIS FRONT. THE WINDS ARE SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AND INCREASING JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. THE HIGHEST WINDS ARE ACCELERATING DOWN THE LAKESHORE FASTER THAN JUST INLAND. ANOTHER THING THAT HAPPENED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WAS STRONG WINDS DEVELOPED IN THE WAKE OF PRECIP ENDING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. WINDS GUST TO 50 MPH IN SHEBOYGAN AROUND 1 PM WITH THIS FEATURE. THE WIND GUSTS HAVE COME DOWN TO 35-40 MPH LATE THIS AFTERNOON... AND WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING. 12Z MODELS CAME IN WITH SLIGHTLY LESS PRECIP THAN PREVIOUS RUNS FOR TONIGHT. THE MESOSCALE MODELS SUPPORT THE LIGHTER SOLUTION FOR TONIGHT. THE HRRR HAS HAD A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON PRECIP COVERAGE ALL DAY. THE NEXT BETTER-DEFINED ROUND OF RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH A SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW THAT IS PROGGED TO SWING SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE MKX AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT THROUGH 4 AM. THE EAST HALF OF THE MKX AREA WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS. .WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW AND SURFACE LOW DRIFT THRUOGH INDIANA AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY CONTINUES TO ROTATE AROUND THEM THROUGH SOUTHEAST WI. EXPECTING COOLER TEMPS WEDNESDAY THAN WHAT THEY WERE TODAY... WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. EXPECT BRISK NORTH WINDS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20-23 MPH. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM BROAD AND DOMINATING UPPER LOW CIRCULATION SLOWLY SHIFTS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THIS PERIOD. SOME DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO HOW QUICK SE WI EXITS THE INFLUENCE OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE NORTHWEST WIDE OF THIS CIRCULATION...BUT FOR THE MOST PART LOOK LIKE MIDDAY THURSDAY AND INTO THE AFTERNOON...THE MID LEVEL RIDGING TAKES HOLD. WILL LINGER SHRA CHANCES INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT EVEN WITH THE NEW TAM COMING AROUND TO A DRIER SCENARIO THURSDAY...WILL GO THE DRY ROUTE. THE TAM HANGS ONTO MORE LVL RH INTO THURSDAY WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF MORE AGGRESSIVE ON CLEARING THINGS OUT. 925 TEMPS AVERAGE 9-12C SO ANY SUN WOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO NUDGE INTO THE LOW 60S. .FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM SHORTWAVE TREKS TO OUR NORTH WITH LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE POSITIONED INTO SE WI EARLY IN THE DAY. LOW LEVEL COLD AVECTION RAMPS UP A BIT ON INCREASING NW WINDS. CONSENSUS OF MODELS IS TO KEEP ANY PRECIP TO OUR NORTH. 12Z ECMWF HAS SAGGED SOME QPF FURTHER FRIDAY NIGHT BUT FOR THE MOST PART THIS IS AN OUTLIER. .SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY QUIET NORTHWEST FLOW WITH SURFACE HIGH MOVING A BITY CLOSER FROM THE PLAINS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE TRENDS WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING A WETTER LOOK BUT GFS/GEM BOTH DERY. INFLUENCE OF THE LOW LEVEL COOL POOL IN PLACE WITH 925 TEMPS DOWN TO 3-5C. .SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING INFLUENCE OF SHORTWAVE DIVING INTO THE PLAINS. SOME DIFFERENCES ON HOW AMPLIFIED THIS FEATURE WILL BE THOUGH ECMWF AND GEM SHOW A FAIRLY DECENT PORT WHILE THE GFS IS WEAKER. 12Z ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF A BIT ON BRINGING PRECIS INTO WESTERN CWA BEFORE THE DAY IS OUT. FOR NOW WENT WITH THE POPS WHICH HAS A SLIGHT CHANCE INTO THE WEST. MUCH OF THE AREA LOOKS DRY WITH POTENTIAL FOR INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE WAVE AND WITH WAN KICKING IN. LATER SHIFTS MAY BE ABLE TO ELIMINATE THIS POP IF THE DRY TREND BECOMES CONSISTENT. .SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW LOTS OF MODEL VARIABILITY THIS PERIOD WITH BOTH THE GFS AND GEM SHOWING A STRONGER WAVE WITH BIG TIMING DIFFERENCES...WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWING A WEAKER POSITIVE TILT WAVE WITH LITTLE OR NO PRECIS. HAVE KEPT POPS IN PLACE FOR NOW BUT IF WEAKER SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF BECOMES THE PREVAILING IDEA THEN POP REDUCTION OR REMOVAL WOULD BECOME NECESSARY. .TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT OF NORTHWEST ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE PRONOUNCED UPPER RIDGE BUILDING THROUGH THE PLAINS. LARGE SURFACE HIGH LOOKS TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH && .AVIATION/00Z TAFS/... LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS ILLINOIS AND INDIANA THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN. GUSTY NORTH WINDS IN THE WAKE OF A FRONT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT. HIGHEST GUSTS WILL BE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. EXPECT WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS AT TIMES. EXPECT IFR CIGS THROUGH THE NIGHT IN SOUTHEAST WI. SOUTH CENTRAL WI...MSN... COULD SEE CIGS RISE TO 1000-1500 FEET JUST PRIOR TO 12Z WED. EXPECT SOUTHEAST WI CIGS TO LIFT TO 1000-1500 FT AFTER 12Z THEN ABOVE 2000 FT BY WED AFTERNOON. THIS IS MORE PESSIMISTIC THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST/ 18Z TAF. SHOWERS OVER FAR SOUTHERN AND WESTERN WI WILL MOVE OUT THIS EVENING. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS IS LIKELY NEAR SHEBOYGAN AROUND MIDNIGHT... SPREADING DOWN THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES THROUGH EARLY MORNING. && .MARINE... NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF A FRONT WERE EXCEEDING GALE FORCE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND ARE NOW DROPPING DOWN BELOW THAT LEVEL. A FEW WIND GUSTS COULD STILL REACH GALE FORCE THIS EVENING FROM PORT WASHINGTON SOUTH TO KENOSHA AS THE FRONT MAKES ITS WAY DOWN THE LAKE. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS. THESE WILL PERSIST THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ643>646. && $$ TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...COLLAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
333 PM CDT TUE OCT 14 2014 .TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. THE OCCLUDED SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL IL. THIS SYSTEM IS CAUSING SEVERAL COMPLEX WEATHER FEATURES OVER SOUTHERN WI WHERE THE SURFACE/925MB FRONT EXTENDS NORTHWARD FROM THE LOW. ALL BUT FAR SOUTHEAST WI NEAR KENOSHA HAVE SWITCHED OVER TO NORTHERLY WINDS WITH THIS FRONT. THE WINDS ARE SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AND INCREASING JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. THE HIGHEST WINDS ARE ACCELERATING DOWN THE LAKESHORE FASTER THAN JUST INLAND. ANOTHER THING THAT HAPPENED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WAS STRONG WINDS DEVELOPED IN THE WAKE OF PRECIP ENDING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. WINDS GUST TO 50 MPH IN SHEBOYGAN AROUND 1 PM WITH THIS FEATURE. THE WIND GUSTS HAVE COME DOWN TO 35-40 MPH LATE THIS AFTERNOON... AND WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING. 12Z MODELS CAME IN WITH SLIGHTLY LESS PRECIP THAN PREVIOUS RUNS FOR TONIGHT. THE MESOSCALE MODELS SUPPORT THE LIGHTER SOLUTION FOR TONIGHT. THE HRRR HAS HAD A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON PRECIP COVERAGE ALL DAY. THE NEXT BETTER-DEFINED ROUND OF RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH A SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW THAT IS PROGGED TO SWING SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE MKX AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT THROUGH 4 AM. THE EAST HALF OF THE MKX AREA WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS. .WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW AND SURFACE LOW DRIFT THRUOGH INDIANA AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY CONTINUES TO ROTATE AROUND THEM THROUGH SOUTHEAST WI. EXPECTING COOLER TEMPS WEDNESDAY THAN WHAT THEY WERE TODAY... WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. EXPECT BRISK NORTH WINDS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20-23 MPH. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM BROAD AND DOMINATING UPPER LOW CIRCULATION SLOWLY SHIFTS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THIS PERIOD. SOME DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO HOW QUICK SE WI EXITS THE INFLUENCE OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE NORTHWEST WIDE OF THIS CIRCULATION...BUT FOR THE MOST PART LOOK LIKE MIDDAY THURSDAY AND INTO THE AFTERNOON...THE MID LEVEL RIDGING TAKES HOLD. WILL LINGER SHRA CHANCES INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT EVEN WITH THE NEW TAM COMING AROUND TO A DRIER SCENARIO THURSDAY...WILL GO THE DRY ROUTE. THE TAM HANGS ONTO MORE LVL RH INTO THURSDAY WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF MORE AGGRESSIVE ON CLEARING THINGS OUT. 925 TEMPS AVERAGE 9-12C SO ANY SUN WOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO NUDGE INTO THE LOW 60S. .FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM SHORTWAVE TREKS TO OUR NORTH WITH LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE POSITIONED INTO SE WI EARLY IN THE DAY. LOW LEVEL COLD AVECTION RAMPS UP A BIT ON INCREASING NW WINDS. CONSENSUS OF MODELS IS TO KEEP ANY PRECIP TO OUR NORTH. 12Z ECMWF HAS SAGGED SOME QPF FURTHER FRIDAY NIGHT BUT FOR THE MOST PART THIS IS AN OUTLIER. .SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY QUIET NORTHWEST FLOW WITH SURFACE HIGH MOVING A BITY CLOSER FROM THE PLAINS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE TRENDS WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING A WETTER LOOK BUT GFS/GEM BOTH DERY. INFLUENCE OF THE LOW LEVEL COOL POOL IN PLACE WITH 925 TEMPS DOWN TO 3-5C. .SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING INFLUENCE OF SHORTWAVE DIVING INTO THE PLAINS. SOME DIFFERENCES ON HOW AMPLIFIED THIS FEATURE WILL BE THOUGH ECMWF AND GEM SHOW A FAIRLY DECENT PORT WHILE THE GFS IS WEAKER. 12Z ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF A BIT ON BRINGING PRECIS INTO WESTERN CWA BEFORE THE DAY IS OUT. FOR NOW WENT WITH THE POPS WHICH HAS A SLIGHT CHANCE INTO THE WEST. MUCH OF THE AREA LOOKS DRY WITH POTENTIAL FOR INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE WAVE AND WITH WAN KICKING IN. LATER SHIFTS MAY BE ABLE TO ELIMINATE THIS POP IF THE DRY TREND BECOMES CONSISTENT. .SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW LOTS OF MODEL VARIABILITY THIS PERIOD WITH BOTH THE GFS AND GEM SHOWING A STRONGER WAVE WITH BIG TIMING DIFFERENCES...WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWING A WEAKER POSITIVE TILT WAVE WITH LITTLE OR NO PRECIS. HAVE KEPT POPS IN PLACE FOR NOW BUT IF WEAKER SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF BECOMES THE PREVAILING IDEA THEN POP REDUCTION OR REMOVAL WOULD BECOME NECESSARY. .TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT OF NORTHWEST ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE PRONOUNCED UPPER RIDGE BUILDING THROUGH THE PLAINS. LARGE SURFACE HIGH LOOKS TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH && .AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...COMING SOON. && .MARINE...COMING SOON. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ643>646. && $$ TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...COLLAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1143 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 930 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014 FRONTOGENETICALLY DRIVEN RAIN CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER...THE CORRIDOR OF STRONGEST F-GEN HAS SHIFTED WEST AND EXTENDS FROM NEAR EAU CLAIRE TO ROCHESTER AND MASON CITY. MEANWHILE...A DRY SLOT IN THE REFLECTIVITY AND EVEN IR SATELLITE IMAGERY IS NOTED OVER WESTERN ILLINOIS INTO SOUTHERN WI...MOSTLY JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. 13.18Z GFS AND 14.00Z HRRR MODELS GENERALLY SEEM TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE FARTHER WEST TREND TO THE STRONGEST F-GEN CURRENTLY...AND HAVE ADJUSTED QPF TOWARDS THEM FOR THE ENTIRE NIGHT. THE RESULT WAS A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT UPWARD ADJUSTMENT TO QPF FOR 06-12Z ALONG/WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. APPEARS DURING THIS PERIOD THE STRONGER F-GEN BAND WILL MAKE ITS WAY BACK EASTWARD A BIT AS THE UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS TO OUR SOUTH CONTINUE THEIR SLOW MARCH NORTHEASTWARD. INTERESTINGLY...HEADING INTO TUESDAY...THE 13.18Z GFS STALLS THE F-GEN BAND PRETTY MUCH OVER LA CROSSE AND WINONA ALL DAY WHILE WEAKENING IT. IF THIS OCCURS...THE QPF FORECASTS NEED TO GO UP SOME FOR TUESDAY AS WELL. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 216 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014 FORECAST CHALLENGES INCLUDE RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND THE SPEED IN WHICH THE CURRENT SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE REGION. 13.12Z GFS/ECMWF NAM/GEM HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 15.12Z...BUT THEN DIVERGE SOMEWHAT WITH HOW QUICKLY RAIN ENDS BY MID-WEEK. THE NAM/GEM ARE MOST PROGRESSIVE WHEREAS THE ECMWF IS SLOWEST AND THE GFS SOMEWHERE IN-BETWEEN. WILL FOLLOW A GFS/ECMWF BLENDED SOLUTION FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. 13.20Z REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS A SWATH OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN STRETCHING ACROSS MOST OF IA INTO NORTHERN IL AND SOUTHERN WI. THIS RAIN WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE LOW DRIFTS SLOWLY ACROSS MO AND THEN STALLS OUT ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL IL BY TOMORROW. STRONG MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ALONG TROUGH AXIS COMBINED WITH PWATS FROM 1.0 TO 1.5 INCHES WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF MODERATE TO EVEN HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH THE NIGHT. WITH UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS ACROSS IA SHOWING RATES OF 0.10 TO 0.20 INCHES PER HOUR...OVERNIGHT TOTALS FROM 0.25 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TO OVER AN INCH ACROSS THE EAST/SOUTHEAST ARE LIKELY. RAINFALL WILL EXTEND OVER SEVERAL HOURS AND WITH RECENT DRY WEATHER...FLOODING IS NOT A CONCERN. WINDS TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH WITH INCREASING GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. WITH 100 PERCENT CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL SLOWLY OR REMAIN STEADY... BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. FORCING SLOWLY DECREASES ON TUESDAY...BUT WITH THE STALLED LOW FILLING-IN ACROSS IL AND AMPLE MOISTURE...EXPECT PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN THROUGH THE DAY. RAIN WILL SLOWLY DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. UP TO AN ADDITIONAL QUARTER OF AN INCH IS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY...BUT IT WILL BE MUCH MORE WINDY WITH FREQUENT NORTHERLY GUSTS FROM 20 TO 30 MPH. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 216 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014 SURFACE LOW FINALLY MOVES INTO CENTRAL IN BY MID-DAY ON WEDNESDAY. GFS/NAM/GEM DRY OUT THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY 16.00Z...BUT THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO HOLD ONTO SOME LOW QPF ACROSS THE FAR EAST. WILL HONOR THIS WITH 20 TO 30 POPS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN WI...BUT ALSO CLIPPING EXTREME NORTHEAST IA AND SOUTHEAST MN. CLOUD COVER WILL BE VERY SLOW TO MOVE OUT...BUT COULD SEE SOME PEAKS OF SUN ALLOWING AFTERNOON HIGHS TO RISE A DEGREE OR TWO COMPARED TO TUESDAY. THURSDAY LIKELY TO BE DRY ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO LINGER ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN WI. WILL CONTINUE 20 POPS FOR THESE AREAS. ASSUMING CLOUDS BREAK-UP A BIT...THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH QUICK-MOVING THERMAL RIDGE MOVING OVERHEAD IN FRONT OF THE NEXT WAVE ALOFT. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GFS KEEPS PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT THE ECMWF/ GEM ARE FARTHER SOUTH. BEST CHANCES APPEAR TO BE ACROSS TAYLOR/ CLARK COUNTIES...SO WILL KEEP 20 POPS CONFINED TO THIS AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH DAILY HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014 BOTH TAF SITES CONTINUE TO BE IMPACTED BY RAIN AND A MVFR/IFR STRATUS DECK...ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH NORTHERN ILLINOIS. THE LOWEST CEILINGS PERSIST AT RST BUT HAVE BEEN SLOWLY CLIMBING. ADDITIONALLY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS TIGHTENED UP RESULTING IN 10-15 KT WINDS...WITH GUSTS OF 25 KT AT RST. CONDITIONS LOOK TO STAY STATUS QUO EARLY THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A RISE TO MVFR AT RST FOR CEILING HEIGHTS AT 12Z AS DRIER AIR TRIES TO FILTER IN. BOTH SITES ARE LIKELY TO SEE THE WINDS AND GUSTS TO INCREASE SOME DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS AS THE GRADIENT GETS A LITTLE TIGHTER. FURTHER IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS AND DIMINISHING OF THE RAIN IS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...STARTING FIRST AT RST...AS THE SYSTEM MOVES A LITTLE FURTHER AWAY FROM THE TAF SITES. LOOK FOR WIND GUSTS TO DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER...AT LSE WHERE THE VALLEY CAN AID IN DIMINISHING WINDS NEAR THE GROUND MORE...HAVE INTRODUCED LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WITH 40-50 KT WINDS FORECAST TO PERSIST NEAR 2000 FT. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...AJ SHORT TERM...ROGERS LONG TERM...ROGERS AVIATION...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
157 AM EDT THU OCT 16 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS FRONT WILL PROVIDE SHOWERS FOR EVERYONE...SOME AREA POSSIBLY RECEIVING A THUNDERSTORM WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. IT WILL TURN SLIGHTLY COOLER BEHIND THIS FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS LATER ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY MUCH COOLER WEATHER FOR SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 1256 AM EDT...AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN THAT WERE IMPACTING HERKIMER COUNTY EARLIER THIS EVENING HAVE DISSIPATED. BANDS OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED HEAVY RAINFALL HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE CATSKILLS...HUDSON VALLEY AND TACONICS AND ARE RAPIDLY PROGRESSING NORTHWARD. BASED ON UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS AROUND ONE TO TWO THIRDS OF AN INCH OF RAIN WILL OCCUR WITH THIS BATCH OF SHOWERS. BASED ON REGION RADARS IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL GET A BRIEF BREAK EARLY THIS MORNING...BEFORE ADDITIONAL RE-DEVELOPMENT OCCURS AS THE LOW LEVEL JET APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH AND THE OCCLUDED BOUNDARY APPROACHES...WHICH WILL FOCUS ADDITIONAL RAINBANDS WITH EMBEDDED HEAVY RAINFALL. HI RES MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR AND LOCAL WRF INDICATING COVERAGE WILL INCREASE IN THE 11Z-13Z TIME FRAME ACROSS OUR AREA. NO CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING HAS BEEN OBSERVED ALTHOUGH A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT SO WILL MENTION ISOLATED THUNDER. THE TEMPERATURE HAS NOT DROPPED BELOW 70 FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS AT ALBANY...WHICH RESULTS IN A NEW RECORD WARM MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR THE DATE. THE OLD RECORD WARM MINIMUM OF 66 DEGREES WAS SET IN 1954. IT COULD ALSO TIE FOR WARMEST OVERNIGHT LOW FOR ANY OCTOBER...THAT WAS SET BACK ON THE MORNING OF OCTOBER 5TH 1929...ALSO 70 DEGREES. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES DURING THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT OVER EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY PUSH THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST WHICH WILL PROVIDE THE LOW LEVEL FOCUS FOR SEVERAL BANDS OF RAIN TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. MOST SOURCES OF MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THESE LARGE SCALE FEATURES BUT AS USUAL THERE ARE VARIATIONS IN QPF AMOUNTS WITH THE 12Z CMC OFFERING THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS...AND THE OVERALL THE 12Z GFS THE LOWEST (AT LEAST IN THE HUDSON VALLEY). USUALLY WITH A SSE FLOW UP TO 40-50KTS (AT THE H850 LEVEL) THE CATSKILLS RECEIVE THE MOST RAINFALL...AND THE TACONICS/BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREENS A CLOSE SECOND. PWATS ARE FORECAST TO REACH AROUND 1.5 INCHES EARLY ON THURSDAY. WE FIGURE ON A GENERAL 1-2+ INCHES OF RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT THERE COULD LOCALLY MORE (MAYBE UP TO 3 INCHES) SHOULD ANY THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. THE RAIN COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES...AS ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS ARE FORECAST TO BE +3 TO +4 STDEV ALONG WITH A 850 MB SOUTHERLY WIND ANOMALIES OF +2 TO +3 STDEV TRANSPORTING ATLANTIC MOISTURE POLEWARD INTO THE REGION. THE LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SOMEWHAT AS IT TRAVERSES OUR REGION...BUT STILL STRONG ENOUGH TO RESULT IN HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL. DUE TO ANTECEDENT DRY GROUND CONDITIONS...OTHER THAN PONDING OF WATER DUE TO CLOGGED STORM DRAINS...WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. PLEASE REFER TO HYDRO SECTION FOR FURTHER DETAILS. THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES FOR SOME EMBEDDED CONVECTION/THUNDER...ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY AS TEMPS ALOFT START TO DECREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LOW MOVING CLOSER. THIS WILL TEND TO STEEPEN MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ENOUGH FOR ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP. HAVE CONTINUED TO MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...INCREASING TO CHANCE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. EMBEDDED DOWNPOURS WILL BE LIKELY WITH ANY ENHANCED CONVECTION. THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST OF OUR REGION TO INTERIOR AND COASTAL NEW ENGLAND BY LATE THURSDAY. SOME LEFTOVER LIGHT SHOWERS WILL STILL BE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT AND FOR AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH. SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH OF ALBANY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL DESPITE THE RAINFALL...AS WE WILL BE IN THE WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS UNTIL THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY DUE TO DEEPER MIXING AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...BUT HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE NOTICEABLY LOWER. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE 70-75 HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD...60S FURTHER WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE 50S THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE AROUND 70 IN THE VALLEYS...60S HIGHER TERRAIN. FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL BE AROUND 50. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE 60-65 IN THE VALLEYS...50S HIGHER TERRAIN...CLOSER TO NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A NE STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE TRANSLATING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS SAT NT-SUN...WITH ANOTHER ONE POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE REGION FOR TUE NT AND BEYOND. OVERALL...EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD...WITH PRECIP NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK/EVOLUTION OF ANY POTENTIAL CLOSED LOW FOR WED...WHICH IF THE 12Z/15 ECMWF PROVES CORRECT...COULD RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL PRECIP. SOME SPECIFICS... SAT NT-SUN NT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/COLD POOL WILL BE TRANSLATING ACROSS THE REGION. OVERALL MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...BUT THE DEVELOPING LAKE/AIR DIFFERENTIAL IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE MAY TRIGGER SOME LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SHOWERS...ESP ON SUNDAY. WITH COOLING 850-700 MB TEMPS INTO THE -5C TO -10C RANGE...IT APPEARS THAT SOME OF THESE SHOWERS MAY CHANGE TO SNOW...OR MIX WITH SNOW/GRAUPEL ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WITH PERHAPS A BIT OF WET SNOW/GRAUPEL EVEN OCCURRING IN ANY TALLER SHOWER ELEMENTS IN LOWER ELEVATIONS. MOST OF THESE SHOWERS SHOULD BE FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND POINTS N AND W...AS WELL AS ACROSS SOUTHERN VT. IT WILL BECOME QUITE BLUSTERY DURING SUNDAY...WITH MAX TEMPS ONLY REACHING THE LOWER/MID 50S IN VALLEY AREAS S AND E OF ALBANY...AND 40S TO THE N AND W...WITH HIGHER TERRAIN ONLY REACHING THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER/MID 40S. SAT NT/SUN AM SHOULD FALL INTO THE 30S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND LOWER/MID 40S ACROSS VALLEY AREAS. FOR SUN NT/MON AM...TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 30S IN MOST AREAS...WITH 20S ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CATSKILLS AND SOUTHERN VT/NW MA. ANY REMAINING ZONES WHERE THE GROWING SEASON REMAINS IN TACT MAY HAVE A FROST/FREEZE AND END TO THE GROWING SEASON FOR SUN NT/MON AM. MON-WED...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SHOULD BUILD IN FOR MON-MON NT...BEFORE ANOTHER POTENT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM DIGS ACROSS SOUTHERN/EASTERN CANADA. 12Z/ECMWF IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE...WITH SOME SIGNALS ALSO DEPICTED IN THE MEAN 500 MB PATTERN IN THE 12Z/GEFS. WILL INDICATE SOME SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR TUE-WED...ALTHOUGH AGAIN...SHOULD THE TREND OF THE ECMWF AND GEFS PROVE CORRECT...A MUCH MORE SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION EVENT COULD UNFOLD ACROSS THE REGION...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE IN THE FORM OF WET SNOW ACROSS AT LEAST HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...WITH MAINLY 40S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...AND LOWER/MID 50S IN VALLEYS FOR MAX TEMPS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS MAINLY IN THE 30S IN VALLEYS AND 20S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AGAIN...SHOULD THE TREND IN ECMWF/GEFS PROVE CORRECT...MUCH COOLER MAX TEMPS COULD OCCUR FOR TUE-WED...WITH 40S IN VALLEYS AND 30S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WHILE OVERNIGHT MINS REMAIN A BIT WARMER. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A LARGE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ITS ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD IN ADVANCE OF BOUNDARY AND LOW. HOWEVER AS THE LOW LEVEL JET MOVES INTO THE REGION TOWARD SUNRISE THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL PICK UP IN INTENSITY JUST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AS IT PUSHES THROUGH. CAN NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY FOR A THUNDERSTORM...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDED MENTION IN TAFS. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE OCCLUDED BOUNDARY THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DECREASES RAPIDLY. OVERALL EXPECTING MVFR CONDITIONS WITH IFR IN HEAVIER SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR FOR A PERIOD IN THE EVENING HOWEVER SOME FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. EAST TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. HAVE ADDED LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN TAFS AS THE LOW LEVEL JET MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST IN THE EVENING AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. OUTLOOK... FRI NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA ESPECIALLY IN THE PM. SAT NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. SUN: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. ISOLATED SHRA. SUN NIGHT-MON: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. && .FIRE WEATHER... SHOWERS ARE ON THE WAY...TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ALL AREAS LOOK TO RECEIVE A QUARTER INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL...SOME AREA MAYBE UP TO TWO INCHES (MAINLY THE SOUTHERN CATSKILLS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY). A FEW SHOWERS MIGHT LINGER...MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF ALBANY... THURSDAY NIGHT. MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH SOME SUNSHINE EXPECTED FRIDAY BUT A STRAY SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WE WENT AHEAD AND ASSIGNED A WET FLAG TO ALL OF OUR NFDRS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. RH VALUES WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...COMING DOWN TO THE 50S BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR MOVES BEHIND A COLD FRONT. WINDS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY WILL BE MAINLY SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS. THE WIND WILL BE BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY 5 TO 15 MPH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... LOCALLY AT ALBANY...ONLY 0.60 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN IN THE PAST MONTH! SOME AREAS HAVE SEEN EVEN A LITTLE LESS. A SOAKING RAINFALL IS LIKELY TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS SEVERAL BANDS OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MOVES THROUGH. IT LOOKS AS IF MOST AREAS SHOULD END UP WITH 1-2+ INCHES OF RAINFALL...HEAVIEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CATSKILLS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY AND OF COURSE ANYWHERE WHERE THUNDERSTORMS MIGHT MATERIALIZE. PONDING OF WATER IS LIKELY WHERE LEAVES CLOG DRAINS. OTHERWISE...DUE TO THE DRY WEATHER PRODUCING UNUSUALLY LOW WATER LEVELS...FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. SOME RIVERS AND STREAMS MIGHT SEE SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANKFULL RISES. LIGHT SHOWERS MIGHT LINGER ON A SCATTERED BASIS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BUT THESE WOULD HAVE NO FURTHER IMPACT ON OUR WATERSHEDS. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. MA...NONE. VT...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/GJM NEAR TERM...HWJIV/GJM/JPV SHORT TERM...HWJIV/JPV LONG TERM...KL AVIATION...IAA FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV HYDROLOGY...HWJIV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1256 AM EDT THU OCT 16 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS FRONT WILL PROVIDE SHOWERS FOR EVERYONE...SOME AREA POSSIBLY RECEIVING A THUNDERSTORM WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. IT WILL TURN SLIGHTLY COOLER BEHIND THIS FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS LATER ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY MUCH COOLER WEATHER FOR SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 1256 AM EDT...AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN THAT WERE IMPACTING HERKIMER COUNTY EARLIER THIS EVENING HAVE DISSIPATED. BANDS OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED HEAVY RAINFALL HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE CATSKILLS...HUDSON VALLEY AND TACONICS AND ARE RAPIDLY PROGRESSING NORTHWARD. BASED ON UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS AROUND ONE TO TWO THIRDS OF AN INCH OF RAIN WILL OCCUR WITH THIS BATCH OF SHOWERS. BASED ON REGION RADARS IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL GET A BRIEF BREAK EARLY THIS MORNING...BEFORE ADDITIONAL RE-DEVELOPMENT OCCURS AS THE LOW LEVEL JET APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH AND THE OCCLUDED BOUNDARY APPROACHES...WHICH WILL FOCUS ADDITIONAL RAINBANDS WITH EMBEDDED HEAVY RAINFALL. HI RES MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR AND LOCAL WRF INDICATING COVERAGE WILL INCREASE IN THE 11Z-13Z TIME FRAME ACROSS OUR AREA. NO CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING HAS BEEN OBSERVED ALTHOUGH A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT SO WILL MENTION ISOLATED THUNDER. THE TEMPERATURE HAS NOT DROPPED BELOW 70 FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS AT ALBANY...WHICH RESULTS IN A NEW RECORD WARM MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR THE DATE. THE OLD RECORD WARM MINIMUM OF 66 DEGREES WAS SET IN 1954. IT COULD ALSO TIE FOR WARMEST OVERNIGHT LOW FOR ANY OCTOBER...THAT WAS SET BACK ON THE MORNING OF OCTOBER 5TH 1929...ALSO 70 DEGREES. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES DURING THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT OVER EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY PUSH THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST WHICH WILL PROVIDE THE LOW LEVEL FOCUS FOR SEVERAL BANDS OF RAIN TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. MOST SOURCES OF MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THESE LARGE SCALE FEATURES BUT AS USUAL THERE ARE VARIATIONS IN QPF AMOUNTS WITH THE 12Z CMC OFFERING THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS...AND THE OVERALL THE 12Z GFS THE LOWEST (AT LEAST IN THE HUDSON VALLEY). USUALLY WITH A SSE FLOW UP TO 40-50KTS (AT THE H850 LEVEL) THE CATSKILLS RECEIVE THE MOST RAINFALL...AND THE TACONICS/BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREENS A CLOSE SECOND. PWATS ARE FORECAST TO REACH AROUND 1.5 INCHES EARLY ON THURSDAY. WE FIGURE ON A GENERAL 1-2+ INCHES OF RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT THERE COULD LOCALLY MORE (MAYBE UP TO 3 INCHES) SHOULD ANY THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. THE RAIN COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES...AS ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS ARE FORECAST TO BE +3 TO +4 STDEV ALONG WITH A 850 MB SOUTHERLY WIND ANOMALIES OF +2 TO +3 STDEV TRANSPORTING ATLANTIC MOISTURE POLEWARD INTO THE REGION. THE LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SOMEWHAT AS IT TRAVERSES OUR REGION...BUT STILL STRONG ENOUGH TO RESULT IN HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL. DUE TO ANTECEDENT DRY GROUND CONDITIONS...OTHER THAN PONDING OF WATER DUE TO CLOGGED STORM DRAINS...WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. PLEASE REFER TO HYDRO SECTION FOR FURTHER DETAILS. THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES FOR SOME EMBEDDED CONVECTION/THUNDER...ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY AS TEMPS ALOFT START TO DECREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LOW MOVING CLOSER. THIS WILL TEND TO STEEPEN MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ENOUGH FOR ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP. HAVE CONTINUED TO MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...INCREASING TO CHANCE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. EMBEDDED DOWNPOURS WILL BE LIKELY WITH ANY ENHANCED CONVECTION. THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST OF OUR REGION TO INTERIOR AND COASTAL NEW ENGLAND BY LATE THURSDAY. SOME LEFTOVER LIGHT SHOWERS WILL STILL BE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT AND FOR AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH. SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH OF ALBANY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL DESPITE THE RAINFALL...AS WE WILL BE IN THE WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS UNTIL THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY DUE TO DEEPER MIXING AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...BUT HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE NOTICEABLY LOWER. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE 70-75 HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD...60S FURTHER WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE 50S THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE AROUND 70 IN THE VALLEYS...60S HIGHER TERRAIN. FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL BE AROUND 50. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE 60-65 IN THE VALLEYS...50S HIGHER TERRAIN...CLOSER TO NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A NE STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE TRANSLATING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS SAT NT-SUN...WITH ANOTHER ONE POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE REGION FOR TUE NT AND BEYOND. OVERALL...EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD...WITH PRECIP NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK/EVOLUTION OF ANY POTENTIAL CLOSED LOW FOR WED...WHICH IF THE 12Z/15 ECMWF PROVES CORRECT...COULD RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL PRECIP. SOME SPECIFICS... SAT NT-SUN NT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/COLD POOL WILL BE TRANSLATING ACROSS THE REGION. OVERALL MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...BUT THE DEVELOPING LAKE/AIR DIFFERENTIAL IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE MAY TRIGGER SOME LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SHOWERS...ESP ON SUNDAY. WITH COOLING 850-700 MB TEMPS INTO THE -5C TO -10C RANGE...IT APPEARS THAT SOME OF THESE SHOWERS MAY CHANGE TO SNOW...OR MIX WITH SNOW/GRAUPEL ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WITH PERHAPS A BIT OF WET SNOW/GRAUPEL EVEN OCCURRING IN ANY TALLER SHOWER ELEMENTS IN LOWER ELEVATIONS. MOST OF THESE SHOWERS SHOULD BE FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND POINTS N AND W...AS WELL AS ACROSS SOUTHERN VT. IT WILL BECOME QUITE BLUSTERY DURING SUNDAY...WITH MAX TEMPS ONLY REACHING THE LOWER/MID 50S IN VALLEY AREAS S AND E OF ALBANY...AND 40S TO THE N AND W...WITH HIGHER TERRAIN ONLY REACHING THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER/MID 40S. SAT NT/SUN AM SHOULD FALL INTO THE 30S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND LOWER/MID 40S ACROSS VALLEY AREAS. FOR SUN NT/MON AM...TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 30S IN MOST AREAS...WITH 20S ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CATSKILLS AND SOUTHERN VT/NW MA. ANY REMAINING ZONES WHERE THE GROWING SEASON REMAINS IN TACT MAY HAVE A FROST/FREEZE AND END TO THE GROWING SEASON FOR SUN NT/MON AM. MON-WED...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SHOULD BUILD IN FOR MON-MON NT...BEFORE ANOTHER POTENT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM DIGS ACROSS SOUTHERN/EASTERN CANADA. 12Z/ECMWF IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE...WITH SOME SIGNALS ALSO DEPICTED IN THE MEAN 500 MB PATTERN IN THE 12Z/GEFS. WILL INDICATE SOME SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR TUE-WED...ALTHOUGH AGAIN...SHOULD THE TREND OF THE ECMWF AND GEFS PROVE CORRECT...A MUCH MORE SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION EVENT COULD UNFOLD ACROSS THE REGION...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE IN THE FORM OF WET SNOW ACROSS AT LEAST HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...WITH MAINLY 40S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...AND LOWER/MID 50S IN VALLEYS FOR MAX TEMPS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS MAINLY IN THE 30S IN VALLEYS AND 20S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AGAIN...SHOULD THE TREND IN ECMWF/GEFS PROVE CORRECT...MUCH COOLER MAX TEMPS COULD OCCUR FOR TUE-WED...WITH 40S IN VALLEYS AND 30S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WHILE OVERNIGHT MINS REMAIN A BIT WARMER. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES LATE THU MORNING OR EARLY THU AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT...WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS CONTINUING INTO LATE THURSDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. AS OF 16/00Z...CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TAF SITES WAS VFR/MVFR...WHICH SHOULD LOWER TO MVFR/IFR LATER TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD SLOWLY IMPROVE THURSDAY AFTERNOON TO VFR/OCCASIONAL MVFR. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BE 5 TO 10 KTS...WITH SOME GUSTS TO 15 KTS AT KALB/KPSF...BUT BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY ON THURSDAY. OUTLOOK... THU NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SHRA MAINLY IN THE EVNG. FRI: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. FRI NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. SAT NIGHT-SUN: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. && .FIRE WEATHER... SHOWERS ARE ON THE WAY...TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ALL AREAS LOOK TO RECEIVE A QUARTER INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL...SOME AREA MAYBE UP TO TWO INCHES (MAINLY THE SOUTHERN CATSKILLS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY). A FEW SHOWERS MIGHT LINGER...MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF ALBANY... THURSDAY NIGHT. MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH SOME SUNSHINE EXPECTED FRIDAY BUT A STRAY SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WE WENT AHEAD AND ASSIGNED A WET FLAG TO ALL OF OUR NFDRS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. RH VALUES WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...COMING DOWN TO THE 50S BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR MOVES BEHIND A COLD FRONT. WINDS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY WILL BE MAINLY SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS. THE WIND WILL BE BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY 5 TO 15 MPH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... LOCALLY AT ALBANY...ONLY 0.60 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN IN THE PAST MONTH! SOME AREAS HAVE SEEN EVEN A LITTLE LESS. A SOAKING RAINFALL IS LIKELY TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS SEVERAL BANDS OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MOVES THROUGH. IT LOOKS AS IF MOST AREAS SHOULD END UP WITH 1-2+ INCHES OF RAINFALL...HEAVIEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CATSKILLS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY AND OF COURSE ANYWHERE WHERE THUNDERSTORMS MIGHT MATERIALIZE. PONDING OF WATER IS LIKELY WHERE LEAVES CLOG DRAINS. OTHERWISE...DUE TO THE DRY WEATHER PRODUCING UNUSUALLY LOW WATER LEVELS...FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. SOME RIVERS AND STREAMS MIGHT SEE SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANKFULL RISES. LIGHT SHOWERS MIGHT LINGER ON A SCATTERED BASIS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BUT THESE WOULD HAVE NO FURTHER IMPACT ON OUR WATERSHEDS. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. MA...NONE. VT...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/GJM NEAR TERM...HWJIV/GJM/JPV SHORT TERM...HWJIV/JPV LONG TERM...KL AVIATION...GJM FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV HYDROLOGY...HWJIV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
341 AM CDT THU OCT 16 2014 .DISCUSSION... 340 AM CDT EARLY MORNING GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS OUR OLD UPPER SPINNING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION OVER WISCONSIN AND ILLINOIS. SHEARED OUT SHORT WAVE ENERGY/VORTICITY CHANNEL RUNNING NORTH-SOUTH CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE WITHIN THE MOIST LOW-MID LEVEL ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION... THOUGH THIS LIGHT/SPOTTY PRECIP SHOULD MOVE OFF TO THE EAST THIS MORNING WITH THE CONTINUED EASTWARD DRIFT OF THE UPPER TROUGH. CLEARING LINE OVER FAR WESTERN IL/WI EARLY THIS MORNING WILL ALSO MOVE SLOWLY EAST...WITH LOW CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO ERODE OVER NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS DURING THE MORNING AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NORTHERN IL BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH SUBSIDENCE IN REGION OF RISING HEIGHTS AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE UPPER RIDGE WHICH MOVES INTO THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. GRADIENT IN CLOUD COVERAGE WILL MAKE FOR A CONTRAST IN TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CWA TODAY...WITH WESTERN AREAS WARMING INTO THE MID 60S WITH CONSIDERABLE SUN WHILE EASTERN AREAS THAT ARE LAST TO CLEAR TOP OUT AROUND 60. ATTENTION THEN TURNS QUICKLY TO ANOTHER STRONG SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THIS MORNING. THIS WAVE IS ALSO PROGGED CLOSE OFF IN THE MID-LEVELS AS IT TRACKS EAST ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER TODAY...BEFORE DIGGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AND CARVING OUT A LARGE LONG-WAVE TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA AS THIS SYSTEM COMBINES WITH AND NEARLY FUJI-WARAS WITH OLD CLOSED LOW TO OUR EAST. SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE DAKOTAS IN RESPONSE TO THIS SECOND WAVE WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH A PACIFIC COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA VERY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE AIR MASS BEHIND THIS FRONT IS NOT SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER THAN THE ONE CURRENTLY OVER THE MIDWEST...THUS TEMPS FRIDAY EXPECTED TO AGAIN BE IN THE LOW-MID 60S WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS NEAR 30 MPH. THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TOWARD EVENING...WITH A SECONDARY PUSH OF COOLER AIR AS SURFACE WINDS SHIFT NORTHWEST FRIDAY EVENING. WHILE A FEW SPRINKLES CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THIS SECONDARY FRONT FRIDAY EVENING...THE BEST ORGANIZED FORCING FOR DEEPER LIFT AND MORE ORGANIZED PRECIP PRODUCTION WILL REMAIN MAINLY NORTH/EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE STRONG SHORT WAVE AND EVOLVING LONG-WAVE TROUGH AXIS ARE OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING...THOUGH GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING ANOTHER QUICK MOVING LOWER AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY. WHILE THIS MAY KEEP CLOUD COVER ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...THE GREATEST THREAT OF SHOWERS AGAIN REMAINS OVER THE LAKE AND ACROSS AREAS EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE CWA. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE BEHIND FRIDAY EVENINGS SECONDARY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS BACK IN THE LOW-MID 50S SATURDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY TO OUR EAST...SETTING THE STAGE FOR CLEARING SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND COLD OVERNIGHT TEMPS. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY DROP TO AROUND THE FREEZING MARK ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST IL AWAY FROM THE CHICAGO HEAT ISLAND BY SUNDAY MORNING. A GOOD FROST IS LIKELY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING CONDITIONS IN SOME SPOTS. THE SURFACE HIGH THEN MOVES EAST DURING THE DAY AS UPPER FLOW PATTERN REMAINS VERY PROGRESSIVE...WITH WINDS SHIFTING SOUTH BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT DIGGING SHORT WAVE WHICH IS PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ONCE AGAIN DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING AND PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS LIMITED...THOUGH STRONGER FORCING IS A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH WITH THIS SYSTEM THAN THOSE EARLIER IN THE WEEKEND. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LAKES BY MONDAY EVENING WITH THE COLD FRONT CLEARING THE CWA BY MONDAY NIGHT. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEPICT A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF NORTH AMERICA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS OUR MONDAY SYSTEM CLOSES OFF OVER THE EAST COAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS SLOWLY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DURING THIS TIME... WITH A PERIOD OF QUIET/DRY WEATHER THROUGH MID-WEEK. NORTHEAST-EAST LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH MAY LIMIT OUR WARMING BENEATH THE UPPER RIDGE...THOUGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AT LEAST RETURN TO LATE OCTOBER NORMALS OR A LITTLE BETTER. RATZER && .AVIATION... //ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 09Z... * IFR/LIFR CIGS AND LOW VSBY THROUGH MID MORNING...THEN GRADUALLY IMPROVING CIGS INTO THE AFTERNOON. KJB //DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z... LOW IFR TO LIFR CIGS...FOG AND SOME OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE CAN BE EXPECTED FOR REST OF THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BACK WEST-NORTHWESTERLY DURING THE MORNING TODAY...THEN WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER THE REGION. AS THIS OCCURS...CIGS SHOULD BE ON A GRADUAL IMPROVING TREND THROUGH THE DAY AS THE VERY LOW CLOUDS GET PUSHED OUT OF THE AREA. WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO PRODUCE SOME STRONG GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. KJB //ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 09Z... * MEDIUM WITH CIG TRENDS TODAY. * HIGH WITH ALL OTHER ELEMENTS. KJB //OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 00Z... * FRIDAY...DRY/VFR. STRONG/GUSTY WEST WINDS. * SATURDAY...DRY/VFR. STRONG/GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. * SUNDAY...DRY/VFR. * MONDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. * TUESDAY...DRY/VFR. NE WINDS. KMD && .MARINE... 148 AM CDT WINDS ACROSS THE LAKE WILL BACK WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY AND REMAIN AROUND 10 KT DURING THE DAY TODAY AS A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE WESTERN LAKES. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER DAY OVER THE LAKE TODAY. THE NEXT WEATHER EVENT OF INCREASING INTEREST IS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER NORTH DAKOTA. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BOARDER TODAY AND APPROACH LAKE SUPERIOR BY LATE TONIGHT. FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO MERGE THIS LOW WITH ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO BY FRIDAY...THEN DEEPEN THE LOW TO AROUND 29.1 INCHES AS IT SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN QUEBEC LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO RESULT IN INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS UP IN THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE OVER THE LAKE ON FRIDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT LOOKS TO SHIFT OVER THE LAKE LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...LIKELY RESULTING IN A NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHIFT...WITH EVEN STRONGER SPEEDS. GALE FORCE WINDS OF 35 TO 40 KT APPEAR PROBABLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE LAKE FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY BEFORE THE WINDS BEGIN ABATING. FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OVER THE WESTERN LAKES REGION BY SUNDAY...RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF LIGHTER WINDS. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THE WINDS COULD INCREASE A BIT OVER THE LAKE AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM SHIFTS OVER THE WESTERN LAKES REGION. THIS APPEARS TO BE A WEAKER SYSTEM AT THIS POINT...THUS GALE FORCE WINDS APPEAR UNLIKELY WITH THIS EVENT. KJB && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. IN...NONE. LM...GALE WATCH...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-LMZ567- LMZ868...7 PM FRIDAY TO 7 PM SATURDAY. GALE WATCH...LMZ080-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779- LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...7 PM FRIDAY TO 3 PM SATURDAY. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
  [top] Area Forecast Discussion NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 336 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2014 .SHORT TERM...(Today) ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT THU OCT 16 2014 Deep upper low over Ohio this morning, keeping cloud cover all the way back into Illinois under northerly/cyclonic flow. Back edge to the clouds pretty distinct this morning to the west, just east of the Mississippi River Valley. Weak ridging moving out of the Plains, but the cut off low is very slow to move out of the region until the kicker moves in. Said wave is over Montana this morning and slated to move in late tonight, though the upper low will begin its easterly drift today. Very slow in going anywhere, the big question for today is the timing of the back edge/clearing. 850mb-700mb moisture profiles pretty similar btwn GFS and NAM...with the HRRR also slow to clear today. Most of the CWA remains under cloudy skies this morning...slowly clearing the western half of the state by mid day. As a result, cooler in the east. && .LONG TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday) ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT THU OCT 16 2014 With the upper low moving out today and tonight...northwesterly flow briefly kicks in...with kicker wave diving into the larger scale trof and spinning around the exiting system. New wave bringing a weak sfc boundary that is barely a shift of winds. Cold front expected to pass with little notice on Friday. However weak, an increasing pressure gradient at the surface and some higher winds aloft will result in a breezy day with 20mph winds in the northern half of the state sustained...gusting 25-30. Ridge builds in for the weekend and the forecast remains dry with highs in the 50s and a chilly Sunday morning. Next chance for precip very small and in response to another wave moving into the Upper Midwest late Sunday/Monday. In fact, the ECMWF is the only model persistent with this feature actually pushing any QPF. The GFS has the wave, but remains dry this far south. Weak southerly flow and cloud cover will make Sunday night a little warmer than Sat night. Better precip chances will be further to the north, as the wave is running into a weak ridge over the region. That being said, silent slight chances on Sun night/Mon remain the only precip in the forecast. Sfc ridging and slightly cooler than seasonal norms expected in the remainder of the 7 day forecast. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night) ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT WED OCT 15 2014 Primary concern remains with coverage and timing of IFR/MVFR low clouds over the next 12-18hrs. Light drizzle or sprinkles will remain possible for the eastern terminals and periodic lifting mechanisms rotate around the back side of the low. The deep low pressure is making slow progress to the east, and some breaks in the low clouds have developed in far western IL, including close to SPI. Cloud cover should generally remain overcast at all terminal sites through 15z, with SPI possibly seeing a brief break in cloud cover between 06z and 10z. BMI has dipped to LIFR cloud heights and could drop to VLIFR at 100FT for a time before sunrise. Otherwise, IFR ceilings should prevail the rest of tonight and to mid-morning on Thursday. After 15z, ceilings should improve to MVFR across the board, with clearing beginning to develop from west to east Thursday afternoon. All terminals should see VFR conditions develop between 19z-23z. Winds will be NW less than 10kt until after sunrise. Turbulent mixing tomorrow could push sustained winds into the 10-12kt range, as winds shift from NW to SW during the afternoon. Winds will weaken below 10kt with sunset while remaining SW. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...HJS LONG TERM...HJS AVIATION...Shimon
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
1211 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2014 .UPDATE... Issued at 1211 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2014 Updated aviation section only. && .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday night) Issued at 221 PM CDT WED OCT 15 2014 Water vapor imagery shows deep low centered over west OH covering much of the Great Lakes south to the southern Appalachians. Energy aloft continues to move SSE within the backside flow. Light showers and drizzle persisted across the area mainly east of the Mississippi. Cross section depiction off the RAP showed moisture depth up through 500mb over the KEVV tri-state (where IR shows enhancement -15/-20C), tapering off to a narrow corridor h9/h8 around KPOF and KUNO. Will continue highest chance PoPs east, to near nothing SEMO through the remainder of the afternoon and evening, with a slow drop in PoPs from west to east with time, as the low gradually moves east. Lows tonight, will hedge toward Raw Model output (a degree or two above MOS), given clouds. Gradual decreasing clouds from west to east expected Thursday as the low slowly pulls away. Clouds may hang on and be slow to clear KEVV tri-state and into the Pennyrile. Even central sections, once some clearing takes place, may see diurnal development take over. Despite a frontal passage Friday, quite weather is anticipated given a very dry air mass Thursday night through Friday night. Some clouds expected, but that`s it. Temps Thursday through Friday night will be a blend of existing forecast numbers, the latest MOS and Raw Model output. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 221 PM CDT WED OCT 15 2014 A dry and seasonably cool northwest flow pattern is expected during the long term. Very little if any precipitation will occur...and temps will average a few degrees cooler than usual for mid October. On Saturday...a 500 mb shortwave trough will dig southeast across the Ohio Valley. Little if any moisture will accompany this feature. A cool northerly low level flow will become rather gusty ahead of high pressure over the Plains. By Sunday...the surface high will be nearly over the Ohio Valley...ensuring a continuation of mainly clear and cool conditions. Another 500 mb shortwave will dig southeast across the Ohio Valley on Monday. There may be a few showers with this system. The 12z gfs and gefs are drier than previous runs...so pops will be kept only in the slight chance category. On Tuesday into Wednesday...a deep layer ridge will become established over or just west of the Mississippi Valley. A light northeast wind flow will keep dry and cool conditions in place. && .AVIATION... Issued at 1211 AM CDT THU OCT 16 2014 Blanket of low clouds continues to envelope parts of the region as cool moist northwest winds persist around low pressure over the middle Ohio Valley. A slow decrease in cig heights east of the MS River will occur tonight. Some late night fog is possible at KCGI when skies are clear, and also KPAH if there are some breaks in the clouds. The KEVV/KOWB areas will likely experience IFR cigs much of the night. Diurnal improvement will again start Thursday morning...with VFR conditions at KCGI/KPAH, and MVFR cigs at KEVV/KOWB through at least midday. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. MO...NONE. IN...NONE. KY...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
512 AM EDT THU OCT 16 2014 .SYNOPSIS... AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER TODAY...THEN CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE THE TIMING OF RAINFALL AND AMOUNTS. 06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTED A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE FROM ABOUT CARIBOU BACK THROUGH ALLAGASH. NORTH OF THE THIS BOUNDARY WAS TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES WERE RUNNING IN THE 60S. LATEST RADAR SHOWED A BATCH OF PRECIP(SHOWERS) MOVING ACROSS THE NWRN TIP OF MAINE W/SOME VERY LIGHT RETURNS SHOWING UP FROM TO TIME SOUTH OF THIS AREA DOWN INTO THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS. THE LATEST RAP AND NAM SOUNDINGS CONFIRMED THIS TO BE DRIZZLE W/A DEEP LLVL MOISTURE PROFILE, LIGHT ESE WINDS AND A DECENT DRY WEDGE NORTH OF THE MOIST LAYER. DECIDED TO CARRY DRIZZLE AND FOG INTO THE MID MORNING. THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWERS AROUND, BUT THEY WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED AND CONFINED TO THE W AND SW AS FORCING IS WEAK AT BEST AND LIMITED TO THE LLVLS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN TODAY W/READINGS IN THE 60S. ALL THIS IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS AN OCCLUDED FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TAP INTO A TROPICAL CONNECTION ASSOCIATED W/HRCN GONZALO. THIS CONNECTION CAN BE SEEN ON THE LATEST SATELLITE WV IMAGERY AS A STRONG PLUME IS SHOWN PUSHING N ALONG THE ATLC SEABOARD. HIGH PWATS OF 1.5+ INCHES, A LLVL JET OF 50 KTS AND STRONG SSE INFLOW THROUGH 700MBS SUPPORTS POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MDL SOUNDINGS ALSO POINT TO SOME ELEVATED CAPE ESPECIALLY FROM THE SW INTO EASTERN AREAS BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. LIGHTING STRIKES WERE SEEN ALONG THE VIRGINIA-NORTH CAROLINA COAST AS OF 06Z. DECIDED TO KEEP THE MENTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST AND ADDED THE MENTION OF TSTMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS INCLUDING PISCATAQUIS CO. AND UPSLOPE FAVORED AREAS WILL SEE OVER 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL W/SOME SPOTS HITTING 3 INCHES IN A 12 HR PERIOD. AFTER COORDINATION W/GYX, DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH. SOME MINOR FLOODING COULD OCCUR ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS, BUT RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL BE ABLE TO HANDLE THIS RAINFALL. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... THE OCCLUDED FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. DEEP MOISTURE...WITH A TROPICAL CONNECTION...WILL BE DRAWN NORTH ACROSS THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. AN AREA OF RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL CROSS THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE OCCLUSION WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ALSO POSSIBLE. PRECIPITATION WILL THEN TAPER TO SHOWERS IN THE WAKE OF THE OCCLUSION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. COULD HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS FRIDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DOWNEAST. A LOW LEVEL JET WILL ALSO CROSS THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE OCCLUSION. GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF THE OCCLUSION...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. HOWEVER...FORECAST WINDS APPEAR SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN WITH PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS FRIDAY/SATURDAY. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION SUNDAY...WHILE AN UPPER TROF CROSSES THE REGION. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS SUNDAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS DOWNEAST. COULD HAVE A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER TROF WILL MOVE NORTHEAST MONDAY. COULD HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MORNING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS MONDAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES NORTH WITH PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DOWNEAST MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS TUESDAY...WITH RAIN CHANCES THEN INCREASING TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS SUNDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES MONDAY/TUESDAY. && .AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NEAR TERM: IFR RIGHT INTO TONIGHT. THERE COULD BE PERIODS OF MVFR EARLY TODAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. SHORT TERM: IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN IMPROVING TO MVFR/VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS AND LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR COULD BE A CONCERN FRIDAY MORNING WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ALSO POSSIBLE. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS. GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY...THOUGH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS COULD LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS EARLY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: DECIDED TO GO W/A SCA STARTING LATER TONIGHT AS WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE OCCLUSION. THE NAM AND GFS BOTH SUPPORT A LLVL JET OF 50 KTS MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. SOME THIS STRONG WIND COULD MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. DECIDED TO GO W/GUSTS 25+ KTS AFTER MIDNIGHT W/SEAS BUILDING TO 7 FT BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE WATERS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN RAIN AND FOG FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052. && $$ NEAR TERM...HEWITT SHORT TERM...NORCROSS LONG TERM...NORCROSS AVIATION...HEWITT/NORCROSS MARINE...HEWITT/NORCROSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
211 AM EDT THU OCT 16 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE OVERNIGHT WILL MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT FROM QUEBEC WILL APPROACH LATE THURSDAY THEN SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... 2 AM UPDATE...ADJUSTED THE POPS FURTHER TO SHOW ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE. ELSEWHERE, DECIDED TO CARRY DRIZZLE AND SOME FOG ESPECIALLY DOWNEAST AND THE COAST AS FORCING IS WEAK AT BEST AND LIMITED TO THE LLVLS ATTM PER THE LATEST LAPS AND RAP SOUNDINGS. QPF WAS ALSO ADJUSTED BACK A BIT TO REFLECT THIS THINKING. EXPECT CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE ON THURSDAY WITH A STEADIER RAIN MOVING IN FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE RAIN WILL BECOME HEAVIER BY LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WONT BE AS WARM AS TODAY BUT STILL 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... ALL MODELS AGREE THAT THE COLD FRONT ALONG WITH THE BAND OF HEAVIER RNFL AHEAD OF IT ARRIVESINTO THE FA FROM THE W LATER THU NGT...TRAVERSING THE FA FRI MRNG INTO ERLY AFTN...THEN EXITING THE FA LATER FIR AFTN. THE BIGGEST QUESTION IS HOW MUCH OF TROP CONNECTION WITH DEEP MOISTURE STREAMING WELL NNWRD FROM GONZALO IN THE OPEN N CNTRL ATLC. SOME MODELS INDICATE A BETTER CONNECTION THEN OTHERS...RESULTING IN EITHER HVY RNFL GETTING WELL NWRD INTO OUR FA VS ONLY AFFECTING INTERIOR SW AND DOWNEAST AREAS. FOR NOW...OUR FCST QPF PLAYS THE MIDDLE GROUND BETWEEN THESE TWO SCENARIOS...AND WE SHOW A HIGHER RNFL TOTAL OF UPWARDS OF 2 INCHES OR SO ALG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE CNTRL ME AND BAXTER PARK HIGHLANDS... WITH 1.0 TO 1.5 INCHES ELSEWHERE BEFORE RNFL ENDS BY FRI EVE. OF COURSE...TEMPS THU NGT AND FRI WILL REMAIN QUITE MILD FOR THIS TM OF SEASON. IN ADDITION TO RN...WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FROM THE THE SSE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ON FRI WITH THE MDTLY STRONG MSL PRES GRAD. ALSO... SOME ELEVATED CAPE IS POSSIBLE JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS ALL OF THE FA...SO WE CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLD TSTMS. THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ALSO DOES NOT LOOK TO BE THAT MUCH COOLER...SO OVRNGT LOWS FRI NGT WILL ALSO BE MILD...BUT A LITTLE COOLER THAN THU NGT UNDER CLRG SKIES DOWNEAST AND E CNTRL AND PRTL CLRG SKIES ACROSS THE N. SAT SHOULD BE FAIR...WITH INCREASING CLDNSS LATE IN THE DAY WITH ANOTHER S/WV AND STRONGER COLD FRONT APCHG FROM QB. ANY SHWRS FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL ONLY AFFECT FAR WRN PTNS OF THE FA JUST PRIOR TO EVE. HI TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE QUITE MILD FOR THIS TM OF SEASON. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... EXPECT MAINLY UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOW. SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY LOOK TO BE THE RAINIEST PERIODS, BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A SLIGHT CHANCE OR LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS EACH DAY THEREAFTER, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST MAINE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL, WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPS TO BE LOW ENOUGH ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE NORTH FOR SOME SNOW TO POSSIBLY MIX IN WITH ANY RAIN SHOWERS. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS EVENING WILL BE GIVING WAY TO WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR IN LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE DAY THURSDAY. SHORT TERM: LIFR TO IFR CLGS AND VSBYS IN RN WILL PREVAIL THRU MUCH OF FRI ACROSS THE TAF SITES...THEN RECOVER TO VFR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATER FRI AFTN AND REMAIN SO THRU FRI NGT AND SAT. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TONIGHT AND MOST OF THURSDAY...AND THEN BEGIN TO INCREASE LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON. VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED TO LESS THAN 1 NM IN AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE TONIGHT AND THEN TO 1 TO 3 NM IN DEVELOPING RAIN AND PATCHY FOG ON THURSDAY. SHORT TERM: SCA CONDITIONS WILL COMMENCE ACROSS THE WATERS THU EVE AND CONT SO THRU SAT. WIND WILL INITIALLY BE THE CULPRIT FOR HIGHER WVS THU NGT AND FRI...WITH DISTANT SWELL FROM GONZALO IN THE CNTRL ATLC AFFECTING OUR WATERS FRI NGT INTO SAT AS WINDS DIMINISH BLO SCA THRESHOLDS. OTHERWISE...MARINE FOG WILL BE CONCERN THU NGT INTO ERLY FRI AFTN AS MOIST LLVL TROP AIR STREAMS NWRD OVR THE COLD GULF OF ME WATERS. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...HEWITT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
105 AM EDT THU OCT 16 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AND WILL FINALLY CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON FRIDAY. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AND WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... 1230 AM UPDATE...CUT DOWN ON POP A BIT AS NO SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA YET. .UPDATE... PUSHED TIMING OF PRECIPITATION BACK A FEW HOURS BASED ON LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS...NAMELY THE WRF AND RAP MODELS. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE BEGUN TO FALL IN THE HIGHER PEAKS AND HAVE INCREASED POPS IN THESE AREAS. SHOWERS INCREASE MOSTLY OVER NH THROUGH 2 AM AND THEN EASTWARD THROUGH DAYBREAK AS LLJ AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SHIFT OVER THE REGION. AREAS CURRENTLY RECEIVING RAINFALL FROM NORTHERN NY STATE TO COASTAL NJ HAVE SEEN WARM RAIN PROCESSES DOMINATING WITH HEAVY... TRAINING PRECIPITATION BANDS CONTRIBUTING TO HIGH RAINFALL RATES OF A HALF AN INCH OR MORE PER HOUR. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE. INCIDENTALLY TONIGHT`S 00Z KGYX SOUNDING HAS 1.20 INCHES FOR PRECIPITABLE WATER... THIS IS NEAR THE 80TH PERCENTILE FOR OCTOBER. STILL EXPECTING THE HEAVIEST AXIS OF RAIN TO REACH NH AND MAINE BETWEEN 8 AM AND NOON. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT REMAINS PRETTY MUCH STATUS QUO WITH A HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT EXPECTED. THE HEAVIEST BANDS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THURSDAY MORNING IN THE WEST...EVENTUALLY TRANSLATING TO THE EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND PUSH THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WE ARE STILL EXPECTING A GOOD 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES OF RAINFALL...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLY TO AROUND 3 INCHES ALONG WINDWARD SLOPES OF THE WHITES AND MAINE FOOTHILLS AS TROPICAL MOISTURE GETS ADVECTED IN ON STOUT SELY INFLOW. CONVERSELY...LOCATIONS ON THE LEEWARD SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS...SUCH AS WHITEFIELD NH...SHOULD SEE MUCH LESS RAINFALL. PERHAPS NOT EVEN A HALF INCH THERE. ENOUGH INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT TO ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLD THUNDER. MORE PERSISTENT HEAVIER CONVECTIVE BANDS MAY BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN SOME DECENT WIND GUSTS. HOWEVER...AS OF THIS WRITING THE BOUNDARY LAYER LOOKS TO BE A BIT TOO INVERTED FOR A STRONG WIND EVENT. IN ADDITION...SOME OF THE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE SPEED OF THE LOW LEVEL JET AS WELL. MOST ARE 40 KT OR LOWER IN THE LOWEST 5 KFT. THEREFORE...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE NOT EXPECTED. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THURSDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING. FRESHENING WESTERLY FLOW WILL CLEAR LINGERING STRATUS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. MAY SEE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS IN NORTHEAST ZONES DURING THE MORNING BUT THESE SHOULD CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. NOT A LOT IN THE WAY OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT AND INCREASING SUN AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL AGAIN SEND TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS FRIDAY NIGHT AS WEAK RIDGE FLATTENS AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WILL SEE VARIABLE CLOUDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND JUST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE. EXPECT TEMPS TO RANGE THROUGH THE 40S NORTH AND IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S SOUTH. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY BRINGING INCREASING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS. BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL BE IN NORTHWEST ZONES BUT NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY UNIFORM ACROSS THE REGION WITH MOST AREAS REACHING THE LOWER TO MID 60S. MORE OF THE SAME FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS DEEP TROUGH ALOFT KEEPS UNSTABLE AIR OVER THE REGION. WILL SEE MUCH COOLER TEMPS ON SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH HIGHS NOT GETTING OUT OF THE 40S IN THE NORTH AND LOWER TO MID 50S SOUTH. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ADD TO THE CHILL. STRONG NORTHWEST GRADIENT WILL PERSIST INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT ON MONDAY AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER LABRADOR CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY. EXPECT CLOUDS TO DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY. AFTER A CHILLY START WILL ONCE AGAIN ONLY SEE HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. UPPER TROUGH WILL ONCE AGAIN DIG INTO THE NEW ENGLAND AS FRESH BATCH OF JET ENERGY DIGS INTO THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MIDWEEK. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... SHORT TERM...IFR OR LOWER EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT IN LOW STRATUS AND FOG. THESE CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT IN STRATUS...FOG...AND OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. LONG TERM...IFR/LIFR EARLY FRIDAY BECOMING VFR. VFR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...SCA HAS BEEN HOISTED FOR ALL WATERS THU THROUGH FRI. LOW PROBABILITY OF MARGINAL GALE GUSTS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THURS EVENING...BUT LOOKS LIKE MIXING WILL BE LIMITED. LONG TERM...SCA`S LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... EXPECTING A 1.5 TO 2.5 INCH RAINFALL EVENT STARTING LATE TONIGHT. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. NO FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME AS THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN LOCATIONS OF HEAVIEST BANDS OF RAIN. HOWEVER...URBAN AND LOW LYING FLOODING IS LIKELY. SOME FLASHIER STREAMS MAY SHOW VERY SHARP RISES. THE MOST LIKELY CANDIDATE FOR A WATCH WOULD BE THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND MAINE FOOTHILLS...BUT WILL LET NEXT SHIFT SEE NEW DATA. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ150>154. && $$ KISTNER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
501 AM EDT THU OCT 16 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 459 AM EDT THU OCT 16 2014 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER IN/OH. MUCH OF THE FCST AREA REMAINS UNDER CONSIDERABLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE NW SIDE OF THIS FEATURE...AND KMQT RADAR HAS SHOWN SPOTTY -SHRA/SPRINKLES AT TIMES OVER THE ERN FCST AREA OVERNIGHT. MUCH OF FAR WRN UPPER MI ENJOYED SUNNY SKIES YESTERDAY. DURING THE NIGHT...SOME FOG HAS FORMED IN THAT AREA AS WELL AS SOME LOW CLOUDS FROM PORTIONS OF THE KEWEENAW DOWN ALONG THE VCNTY OF THE SHORELINE INTO NW WI. UPSTREAM...A RATHER POTENT LOOKING SHORTWAVE IS MOVING E ACROSS MT WITH ASSOCIATED SFC LOW IN THE ND/SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA BORDER AREA. FOR TODAY...SOME -SHRA/SPRINKLES MAY CONTINUE TO APPEAR AT TIMES THRU THE MID MORNING OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE FCST AREA UNDER LINGERING WEAK DEEP LAYER FORCING PER QVECTORS. DEEP LAYER QVECTOR DIVERGENCE THEN TAKES OVER...SO IT APPEARS DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE THE RULE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTN. BIGGEST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE CLOUD TRENDS. WITH A LIGHT/VRBL WIND REGIME ACROSS THE AREA TODAY BTWN SFC LOW IN SRN ONTARIO AND APPROACHING LOW MOVING ALONG U.S./CANADA BORDER...THERE WILL BE LITTLE ADVECTION OCCURRING. THUS...A PESSIMISTIC CLOUD FCST APPEARS TO BE THE WAY TO GO. THE W WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE THE BETTER OPPORTUNITY TO SEE SOME SUNSHINE...AND THIS SHOULD HELP BOOST TEMPS TO AROUND 60F. WHERE CLOUDS ARE MORE PERSISTENT...LWR 50S WILL BE MORE COMMON. TONIGHT...THE POTENT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK INTO NRN MN AND WILL HELP PICK UP THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY. AS THIS OCCURS...PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE LATTER FEATURE WILL SWING BACK TO THE NW WITH LEFT EXIT OF 100KT UPPER JET STREAK ON E SIDE OF THE LOW ASSISTING PCPN PRODUCTION. MUCH OF THAT PCPN SHOULD PASS BY TO THE E AND N OF UPPER MI...BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO MENTION SCHC POPS OVER THE FAR E LATE. MEANWHILE...FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL SPREAD INTO WRN UPPER MI. INITIALLY...DEEP MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN IS LACKING...SO IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME BEFORE PCPN DEVELOPS. BEST POTENTIAL FOR PCPN SHOULD COME WITH THE ADDITION OF LOWER LEVEL FORCING FROM SFC-850MB TROF TRAILING WNW FROM SFC LOW WHICH SHOULD BE IN THE VCNTY OF CNTRL UPPER MI AT 12Z MON. HAVE THUS INTRODUCED CHC POPS OVER WRN UPPER LATE TONIGHT. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 421 AM EDT THU OCT 16 2014 MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE MEDIUM/LONG TERM WL FOCUS ON POPS AND WINDS ON FRI INTO SAT AS A STRONG DISTURBANCE SLIDES THRU THE UPR LKS AND INTERACTS WITH SLOW MOVING CLOSED LO RESPONSIBLE FOR THE RECENT INCLEMENT WX OVER THE E HALF OF UPR MI. AS THE DISTURBANCES PHASE...A DEEP LO PRES WL DVLP OVER SE CANADA...BRINGING A STRONG AND COLDER NW FLOW THAT WL RESULT IN SOME LK ENHANCED PCPN FOR A TIME ON FRI NGT. RIGHT NOW...IT APPEARS MOST OF THE PCPN WL FALL AS RA. FRI/FRI NGT...STRONG SHRTWV CROSSING THE NRN ROCKIES EARLY THIS MRNG IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE UPR LKS ON FRI AND MERGE WITH THE SLUGGIST CLOSED LO NOW OVER THE OH RIVER VALLEY THAT WL BE MOVING NEWD THRU SE ONTARIO AT THAT TIME. THE RESULT WL BE A DEEPENING SFC LO PRES NEAR JAMES BAY AND STRENGTHENING NNW WINDS/CAD IN THE UPR LKS ON FRI AFTN AND NGT. ALTHOUGH THERE WL BE LTL MSTR INFLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE SHRTWV MOVING IN FM THE W ON FRI THAT WL LIMIT THE INTENSITY OF THE ACCOMPANYING QVECTOR CNVGC...VIGOROUS NATURE OF THIS SHRTWV/PVA ACCOMPANIED BY 12HR H5 HGT FALLS UP 100M WL SUPPORT LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NRN CWA ON THE CYC SIDE OF SHRTWV TRACK AND WHERE MODELS SHOW MORE APPRECIABLE DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC/UPR DVGC. EXPECT THE LOWEST POPS OVER THE SCENTRAL WITH DOWNSLOPE W VEERING NW LLVL WIND COMPONENT. AS NNW H925 WINDS INCRSG UP TO 40-45 KTS LATE FRI/FRI NGT DRIVE H85 TEMPS DOWN TO -4 TO -6C ON FRI NGT IN THE PRESENCE OF SOME LINGERING DEEP MSTR ON THE CYC SIDE OF A REINFORCING SHRTWV DIGGING SSEWD THRU MN...EXPECT A PERIOD OF LK ENHANCED PCPN THAT MAY FEATURE SOME SN MIXING IN WITH THE RA AT LEAST OVER THE HIER TERRAIN OF THE NW HALF. WINDS WL LIKELY AT LEAST APRCH ADVY CRITERIA...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LK SUP SHORE WITH THE INCRSG INSTABILITY. THE LK PCPN MAY BEGIN TO DIMINISH TOWARD 12Z SAT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF HGT RISES/MID LVL DRYING/LOWERING SUBSIDENCE INVRN UNDER THE DNVA IN THE WAKE OF THE UPR TROF SHIFTING INTO THE ERN LKS. ONE OTHER CONCERN WL BE THE HI WAVES WHIPPED UP ON LK SUP BY THE STRENGTHENING WINDS ON FRI NGT. SINCE THE LK SUP WATER LVL HAS RISEN UP TO HALF A FOOT ABV NORMAL...THERE MAY BE SOME BEACH FLOODING AT THE MORE EXPOSED LOCATIONS. SAT...THE APRCH OF A SHRTWV RDG AND ACCOMPANYING SFC HI PRES WL BRING DIMINISHING WINDS AND VIGOROUS MID LVL DRYING THAT WL CAUSE LK EFFECT PCPN ON SAT MRNG TO END IN THE AFTN IN THE PRESENCE OF DIURNAL HEATING EVEN IF A GOOD DEAL OF SC LINGERS WITHIN THE LLVL THERMAL TROF THAT IS PROGGED TO HOLD IN PLACE UNDER SUBSIDENCE INVRN NEAR H875 WITHIN THE NLY FLOW E OF THE APRCHG RDG AXIS. SOME CLRG IS LIKELY TO ARRIVE OVER THE W BY LATE IN THE AFTN WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE SFC RDG AXIS. SAT NGT...WITH RDG AXIS PASSING OVHD AND PWAT FCST AS LO AS 0.25 INCH SUPPORTING THE CLRG OF ANY LINGERING LO CLDS...EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL WELL INTO THE 20S OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF EVEN IF SOME HI CLDS ARRIVE LATE IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SHRTWV DIGGING SEWD THRU SCENTRAL CANADA. SINCE LO CLDS WL LINGER LONGER OVER THE E...TEMPS THERE WL NOT FALL AS FAR. SUN INTO MON...NEXT SHRTWV DROPPING SEWD AND INTO THE UPR LKS/UPR MIDWEST BY 12Z MON WL BRING INCRSG CLDS ON SUN AND THE NEXT CHC OF SHOWERS SUN AFTN INTO MON MRNG. ONCE AGAIN...MSTR INFLOW INTO THIS DISTURBANCE WL BE LIMITED...BUT FAIRLY VIGOROUS DPVA/QVECTOR CNVGC WILL BRING AT LEAST SCT SHOWERS BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF HGT RISES/DNVA IN THE WAKE OF THE SHRTWV SLIPPING TO THE SE DIMINISH THE PCPN THREAT LATER ON MON. ALL THE PCPN ACCOMPANYING THIS DISTURBANCE WL BE IN THE FORM OF RA EXTENDED...ALTHOUGH SOME CLDS AND EVEN A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER ON MON NGT UNDER LLVL CYC FLOW/LLVL THERMAL TROF LEFT IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SHRTWV/SFC LO...BLDG UPR RDG OVER CENTRAL NAMERICA AND SFC HI PRES IN THE GREAT LKS WL BRING DRY WX TO UPR MI. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT THU OCT 16 2014 A WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE OVER INDIANA INTO LOWER MICHIGAN WILL CONTINUE TO BRING LOW CLOUDS/VSBY INTO KSAW. EXPECT LIFR AND POSSIBLY VLIFR CONDITIONS DUE TO PERSISTENT MOIST AND COOL NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR BENEATH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING ALOFT. VERY LOW CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO MID MORNING. MEANWHILE...AT KIWD AND KCMX...THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE GROUND FOG TRENDS INTO THE MORNING HRS AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES OVER WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN. EXPECT THAT THE SHALLOW AND VARIABLE AT TIMES GROUND FOG AT IWD WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY BY AROUND 14Z. THERE IS ALSO LOWER CONFIDENCE AT CMX BUT SUSPECT THAT SOME REDUCTION IN VSBY TO AT LEAST MVFR IS ALSO LIKELY OVERNIGHT. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 434 AM EDT THU OCT 16 2014 EXPECT LIGHT WINDS INTO EARLY FRI UNDER A RELATIVELY WEAK PRES GRADIENT. BUT THEN AS A PAIR OF UPPER DISTURBANCES COMBINE ON FRI... A DEEP LO PRES WILL DEVELOP IN SE CANADA AND BRING INCREASING NNW WINDS THAT INCREASE TO GALE FORCE/UP TO 40 KTS ON FRI AFTERNOON AND FRI NIGHT THAT IMPACT ALMOST ALL OF LAKE SUPERIOR INTO NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. ISSUED GALE WATCHES FOR ALL BUT FAR WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...WHERE THE WINDS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG. AS A HI PRES RIDGE APPROACHES FROM THE W ON SAT...THE STRONG WINDS WILL DIMINISH W-E. ALTHOUGH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE/SURFACE LO PRES WILL TRACK ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK...NO STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR LSZ248>251-267. GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR LSZ266. GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR LSZ263>265. GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR LSZ244-245. GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR LSZ242-243. LAKE MICHIGAN... GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR LMZ248-250. && $$ SHORT TERM...ROLFSON LONG TERM...KC AVIATION...JLB MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
138 AM EDT THU OCT 16 2014 .SYNOPSIS... SHOWERS OCCASIONALLY HEAVY AT TIMES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. A FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING BRINGING AN END TO THE SHOWERS. TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE PRIMARILY DRY WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... 1230 AM UPDATE... QUICK UPDATE TO CURRENT CONDITIONS. NEGATIVE TILT TROF WILL KEEP SHOWERS HERE MOST OF THIS MORNING. AS STATED BELOW ANOTHER BATCH OF HEAVY RAIN MOVING OVER DELAWARE STATE HEADING THIS WAY. 4 AM IN CWA. DROPPED ADVISORIES AND WARNING BUT MORE LIKELY WITH NEXT BATCH. 1015 PM UPDATE... RELATIVE LULL IN THE ACTION CURRENTLY AFTER A STRIPE 1 TO 3 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA...LOCALIZED REPORTS OF 2.5 TO 4 INCHES. IMPACTS HAVE BEEN ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS WHICH ARE SUBJECT TO POOR DRAINAGE FROM CONCRETE AND ADDITIONAL PROBLEM OF FALLEN LEAVES BLOCKING GRATES. SCRANTON AND UTICA IN PARTICULAR HAD A LOT OF WATER ON ROADS AND SOME TRAPPED CARS. VERY DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER...ALMOST 4 KM...AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO AROUND AN INCH-AND-THREE- QUARTERS...ARE VERY ANOMALOUS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE RESULTING WARM CLOUD PROCESSES IS LIKELY WHY RADAR HAS STRUGGLED TO ESTIMATE RAINFALL...EARLIER UNDERESTIMATING VERSUS REPORTS BY UP TO A FACTOR OF 2. RAIN RIGHT NOW IS ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH LESS BANDING COMPARED TO EARLIER. HOWEVER...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN PLACE OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING BECAUSE OF CONTINUED EXPECTED ROUNDS OF RAINFALL. NEW BAND NOW DEVELOPING AS EXPECTED IN THE DEL-MAR-VA AREA...AND THIS WILL RIDE LLJ QUICKLY INTO OUR REGION AS PER THE HI RES MODELS HRRR AND RUC...AND LOOKS LIKE THE NEW OPERATIONAL 00Z NAM THAT IS JUST COMING IN AS WELL. OUTSIDE OF THE URBAN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...WE WERE ABLE TO ABSORB THE INITIAL SHOT OF RAIN RATHER WELL DUE TO DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...NEW LOCALIZED ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN WILL BE MUCH MORE PRONE TO RUNNING OFF AND CAUSING ISSUES. THURSDAY MORNING CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE AS THE SURFACE OCCLUSION MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY...SYSTEM WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTH INTO EASTERN CANADA WITH REGION UNDER A FAIRLY DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE IN THE 60S. FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW NOW MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST US WILL TRACK INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND CARVE OUT ANOTHER DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF WITH THIS CURRENT FEATURE AND PUSH A SFC COLD FRONT THROUGH ON SATURDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS DURING THIS PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... S/WV EMBEDDED IN THE NWLY FLOW BEHIND THE PARTING UPR LOW WILL PASS THROUGH THE RGN IN THE SAT NGT/SUNDAY TIME FRAME. ANOTHER S/WV APRCHS FOR MON NGT/TUE AND PASSES TO OUR SOUTH. CARRIED LOW CHC POPS FOR BOTH OF THESE SYSTEMS. IN BETWEEN THEM...GNRLY FAIR WX. HPC GUIDANCE LOOKED GREAT AND WAS USED FOR THE MED RNG. TEMPS GNRLY BLO NORMAL WITH MAXES U40S TO M50S...MINS 30-35. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... 06Z UPDATE... AREA OF RAIN IS MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH AND WILL AFFECT TERMINALS WITH IFR RESTRICTIONS AT SOME POINT DURING THE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT IFR TO HOLD OFF AT SYR AND RME UNTIL AFTER 08Z WITH BGM AND AVP SEEING IFR BEGINNING TO IMPACT TERMINALS AFTER 07Z. AS RAIN CLEARS OUT FROM TERMINALS AFTER 12Z EXPECT A GRADUAL IMPROVE TO BKN-OVC VFR DECK TODAY. POTENTIAL EXISTS AGAIN FOR LOW MVFR/IFR AT RME/SYR AND ITH AFTER 02Z FRIDAY WITH CONFIDENCE LOW REMAINING TERMINALS. OUTLOOK... THU NGT...MVFR IN SCT -SHRA. FRI/FRI NGT...VFR. SAT/SAT NGT...MVFR WITH -SHRA PSBL. SUN...IMPRVG TO VFR. MON...VFR. && .HYDROLOGY... FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES. A LULL NOW WITH SHOWERS NOT TRAINING AND HEAVIER RAIN ISOLATED. FLASH FLOOD WARNING AND FLOOD ADVISORIES CANCELLED. ANOTHER BATCH OF HEAVY RAIN GETTING ORGANIZED OVER DELAWARE STATE WILL MOVE NNW INTO CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. MESO MODELS HAVE THIS. THIS COULD DROP ANOTHER QUICK 1 TO 2 INCHES. SO FAR HIGHEST AMOUNTS 3 TO 5 INCHES FROM LUZERNE TO CHENANGO. DESPITE THE DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS FLOOD RESPONSE WAS RAPID...ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS. RADAR ESTIMATES GROSSLY UNDERDONE. STREAM RESPONSE WAS RAPID TOO BUT NO FLOODING THERE. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED SINCE THE STREAMS HAVE NOT DROPPED BACK TO ORIGINAL LEVELS. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ038>040- 043-044-047-048-072. NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ009-036- 037-045-046-055>057-062. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RRM/TAC NEAR TERM...MDP/TAC SHORT TERM...RRM LONG TERM... AVIATION...PVN HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1242 AM EDT THU OCT 16 2014 .SYNOPSIS... SHOWERS OCCASIONALLY HEAVY AT TIMES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. A FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING BRINGING AN END TO THE SHOWERS. TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE PRIMARILY DRY WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... 1230 AM UPDATE... QUICK UPDATE TO CURRENT CONDITIONS. NEGATIVE TILT TROF WILL KEEP SHOWERS HERE MOST OF THIS MORNING. AS STATED BELOW ANOTHER BATCH OF HEAVY RAIN MOVING OVER DELAWARE STATE HEADING THIS WAY. 4 AM IN CWA. DROPPED ADVISORIES AND WARNING BUT MORE LIKELY WITH NEXT BATCH. 1015 PM UPDATE... RELATIVE LULL IN THE ACTION CURRENTLY AFTER A STRIPE 1 TO 3 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA...LOCALIZED REPORTS OF 2.5 TO 4 INCHES. IMPACTS HAVE BEEN ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS WHICH ARE SUBJECT TO POOR DRAINAGE FROM CONCRETE AND ADDITIONAL PROBLEM OF FALLEN LEAVES BLOCKING GRATES. SCRANTON AND UTICA IN PARTICULAR HAD A LOT OF WATER ON ROADS AND SOME TRAPPED CARS. VERY DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER...ALMOST 4 KM...AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO AROUND AN INCH-AND-THREE- QUARTERS...ARE VERY ANOMALOUS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE RESULTING WARM CLOUD PROCESSES IS LIKELY WHY RADAR HAS STRUGGLED TO ESTIMATE RAINFALL...EARLIER UNDERESTIMATING VERSUS REPORTS BY UP TO A FACTOR OF 2. RAIN RIGHT NOW IS ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH LESS BANDING COMPARED TO EARLIER. HOWEVER...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN PLACE OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING BECAUSE OF CONTINUED EXPECTED ROUNDS OF RAINFALL. NEW BAND NOW DEVELOPING AS EXPECTED IN THE DEL-MAR-VA AREA...AND THIS WILL RIDE LLJ QUICKLY INTO OUR REGION AS PER THE HI RES MODELS HRRR AND RUC...AND LOOKS LIKE THE NEW OPERATIONAL 00Z NAM THAT IS JUST COMING IN AS WELL. OUTSIDE OF THE URBAN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...WE WERE ABLE TO ABSORB THE INITIAL SHOT OF RAIN RATHER WELL DUE TO DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...NEW LOCALIZED ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN WILL BE MUCH MORE PRONE TO RUNNING OFF AND CAUSING ISSUES. THURSDAY MORNING CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE AS THE SURFACE OCCLUSION MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY...SYSTEM WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTH INTO EASTERN CANADA WITH REGION UNDER A FAIRLY DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE IN THE 60S. FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW NOW MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST US WILL TRACK INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND CARVE OUT ANOTHER DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF WITH THIS CURRENT FEATURE AND PUSH A SFC COLD FRONT THROUGH ON SATURDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS DURING THIS PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... S/WV EMBEDDED IN THE NWLY FLOW BEHIND THE PARTING UPR LOW WILL PASS THROUGH THE RGN IN THE SAT NGT/SUNDAY TIME FRAME. ANOTHER S/WV APRCHS FOR MON NGT/TUE AND PASSES TO OUR SOUTH. CARRIED LOW CHC POPS FOR BOTH OF THESE SYSTEMS. IN BETWEEN THEM...GNRLY FAIR WX. HPC GUIDANCE LOOKED GREAT AND WAS USED FOR THE MED RNG. TEMPS GNRLY BLO NORMAL WITH MAXES U40S TO M50S...MINS 30-35. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... 00Z UPDATE... SURGE OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE UP THE EASTERN SIDE OF A LARGE UPPER LOW...HAS RESULTED IN WAVES OF RAIN WHICH HAVE BEEN AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE HEAVY AT TIMES WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS...ESPECIALLY KAVP-KBGM-KRME. EVEN WHERE RAIN DOES NOT FALL AS HARD THOUGH...EXPECTING DEVELOPMENT OF IFR CIGS AND/OR FOG OVERNIGHT. STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WITHIN LOWEST 2 KFT AGL WILL BREACH LLWS CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING AT KAVP...BUT PROBABLY NOT QUITE AT THE OTHER TERMINALS /THOUGH THIS POTENTIAL WILL BE MONITORED/. RAIN WILL TAPER OFF THU MORNING...CLOUDS MAY BE A LITTLE SLOWER TO ERODE BUT EVENTUAL VFR ANTICIPATED LATE MORNING-EARLY AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION. OUTLOOK... THU NGT...MVFR IN SCT -SHRA. FRI/FRI NGT...VFR. SAT/SAT NGT...MVFR WITH -SHRA PSBL. SUN...IMPRVG TO VFR. MON...VFR. && .HYDROLOGY... FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES. A LULL NOW WITH SHOWERS NOT TRAINING AND HEAVIER RAIN ISOLATED. FLASH FLOOD WARNING AND FLOOD ADVISORIES CANCELLED. ANOTHER BATCH OF HEAVY RAIN GETTING ORGANIZED OVER DELAWARE STATE WILL MOVE NNW INTO CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. MESO MODELS HAVE THIS. THIS COULD DROP ANOTHER QUICK 1 TO 2 INCHES. SO FAR HIGHEST AMOUNTS 3 TO 5 INCHES FROM LUZERNE TO CHENANGO. DESPITE THE DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS FLOOD RESPONSE WAS RAPID...ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS. RADAR ESTIMATES GROSSLY UNDERDONE. STREAM RESPONSE WAS RAPID TOO BUT NO FLOODING THERE. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED SINCE THE STREAMS HAVE NOT DROPPED BACK TO ORIGINAL LEVELS. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ038>040- 043-044-047-048-072. NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ009-036- 037-045-046-055>057-062. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RRM/TAC NEAR TERM...MDP/TAC SHORT TERM...RRM LONG TERM... AVIATION...MDP HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
206 AM EDT THU OCT 16 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE OVER INDIANA WILL WOBBLE ACROSS THE REGION INTO THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOVING NORTHWARD AND STRENGTHENING OVER EASTERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. THERE WILL BE SEVERAL TROUGHS THAT ROTATE AROUND THE LOW WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVING FRIDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... DID SOME ADJUSTING OF THE POPS BUT DID CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. ADDED PATCHY DENSE FOG TO A LARGE AREA. THE CLOUDS DECREASE AT TIMES AND THEN THE DENSE FOG FORMS AND THEN WHEN THE CLOUDS MOVES BACK IN THE VISIBILITY USUALLY IMPROVES. THE HRRR MODEL TRIES TO INDICATE A LARGE AREA OF DENSE FOG DEVELOPING OVER NW OHIO. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR WHETHER THIS ACTUALLY OCCURS WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS ROTATING INTO NW OHIO DURING THE NIGHT. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE LOWS BASED ON MIDNIGHT TEMPERATURES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... SHOWERS IN A BAND HAVE BECOME MORE PREVALENT FROM ABOUT CUYAHOGA COUNTY SOUTHEAST INTO MAHONING COUNTY. LOCAL AND MESOSCALE MODELS DID NOT HANDLE THIS SCENARIO VERY WELL. WILL UPDATE TO INCLUDE GREATER POPS OVER THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREA AND A CHANCE ELSEWHERE. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... A STRONGER PIECE OF ENERGY WILL ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LOW ON THURSDAY WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING AS IT MOVES FROM WESTERN NY INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO. AS THE LOW PIVOTS NORTHWARD IT WILL PULL A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE THE HIGHEST ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA BUT ALL LOCATIONS WILL EXPERIENCE SCATTERED SHOWERS. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH COOLER AIR FLOWING ACROSS THE LAKE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY TO KEEP SOME LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS GOING. THESE WILL MAINLY BE OVER NE OHIO INTO NW PA. IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE A DRY PERIOD FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT MAY BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL SPILL ACROSS THE LAKE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH NE OHIO AND NW PA GETTING MOST OF THE SHOWERS. WE ARE SLIGHTLY CONCERNED THAT SOME SNOW MAY MIX IN ON THE HILLTOPS OF NW PA SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST SUNDAY. LAKE ENHANCED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL LINGER IN THE FAR EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE LAKE THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES ZONAL THE SECOND HALF OF SUNDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. BY MONDAY MORNING ANOTHER VORT MAX DIVES SOUTH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE SURFACE HIGH TRANSLATES OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL FORM IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...AND MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE MEASURABLE RAINFALL ON MONDAY. WHILE THE AREA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW MOST OF MONDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50`S. THE RAIN WILL LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY AND EVENTUALLY COME TO AN END BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE HIGH FILLS AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD. THE REST OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE DRY WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...DESPITE THE RIDGING. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... LOW PRESSURE SPIRALING OVERHEAD THE OHIO VALLEY. CONDITIONS WILL VARY ACROSS THE SPECTRUM OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY DAYLIGHT HOURS. AREAS OF FOG/LOW CEILINGS ACROSS THE WEST...TOL/FDY AND ACROSS THE EAST YNG/GKJ. SOME THICKER CLOUD COVER ATOP THE FOG WILL BE MOVING IN ACROSS TOL/FDY SO THINKING THERE IS THAT THERE WILL BE SOME IMPROVEMENT AND HAVE ALLOWED THEM TO COME UP OUT OF LIFR. ACROSS THE FAR EAST NOT AS OPTIMISTIC...BUT ALSO NOT ENTIRELY CONFIDENT THEY WILL TANK EITHER AS THEY ARE ON THE FRINGES OF SOME OF THE MID CLOUD DECK. ACROSS THE MIDDLE CONDITIONS ARE A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR...AND FIGURE WITH TIME TONIGHT THEY TOO WILL HIT IFR FOR A WHILE. LOW CONFIDENCE IN ALL OF THE EXACT DETAILS WITH VARIABILITY EXPECTED. UPPER LOW STICKS AROUND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON THURSDAY AND CAN EXPECT ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS. ONLY COULD PUT A VCSH IN AT THIS POINT. CALM WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY GAIN A WEST DIRECTION BY AFTERNOON. .OUTLOOK...NON VFR INTO EARLY FRIDAY...THEN AGAIN ON SATURDAY. && .MARINE... WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER INDIANA WILL MOVE TO NEAR LAKE ONTARIO OVERNIGHT. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS ON LAKE ERIE WILL BACK TO NORTHWEST BY THURSDAY MORNING AND THEN SOUTHWEST AGAIN BY THURSDAY EVENING AS THE LOW CURLS NW INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS ON EXTREME EASTERN LAKE ERIE BY THURSDAY EVENING...THEN INCREASE TO 20-25 KNOTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY(EAST HALF) AS THIS LOW MERGES WITH THE NEXT LOW MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ON THE EAST END STARTING SOMETIME ON FRIDAY...EXPANDING TO ALL NEARSHORE WATERS EARLY SATURDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. THE SMALL CRAFTS WILL NEED TO LINGER INTO SUNDAY WHEN CONDITIONS START TO IMPROVE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE LAKE. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MULLEN NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA/LOMBARDY SHORT TERM...MULLEN LONG TERM...MAYERS AVIATION...OUDEMAN MARINE...KEC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
1238 AM EDT THU OCT 16 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE OVER INDIANA WILL WOBBLE ACROSS THE REGION INTO THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOVING NORTHWARD AND STRENGTHENING OVER EASTERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. THERE WILL BE SEVERAL TROUGHS THAT ROTATE AROUND THE LOW WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVING FRIDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... DID SOME ADJUSTING OF THE POPS BUT DID CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. ADDED PATCHY DENSE FOG TO A LARGE AREA. THE CLOUDS DECREASE AT TIMES AND THEN THE DENSE FOG FORMS AND THEN WHEN THE CLOUDS MOVES BACK IN THE VISIBILITY USUALLY IMPROVES. THE HRRR MODEL TRIES TO INDICATE A LARGE AREA OF DENSE FOG DEVELOPING OVER NW OHIO. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR WHETHER THIS ACTUALLY OCCURS WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS ROTATING INTO NW OHIO DURING THE NIGHT. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE LOWS BASED ON MIDNIGHT TEMPERATURES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... SHOWERS IN A BAND HAVE BECOME MORE PREVALENT FROM ABOUT CUYAHOGA COUNTY SOUTHEAST INTO MAHONING COUNTY. LOCAL AND MESOSCALE MODELS DID NOT HANDLE THIS SCENARIO VERY WELL. WILL UPDATE TO INCLUDE GREATER POPS OVER THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREA AND A CHANCE ELSEWHERE. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... A STRONGER PIECE OF ENERGY WILL ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LOW ON THURSDAY WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING AS IT MOVES FROM WESTERN NY INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO. AS THE LOW PIVOTS NORTHWARD IT WILL PULL A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE THE HIGHEST ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA BUT ALL LOCATIONS WILL EXPERIENCE SCATTERED SHOWERS. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH COOLER AIR FLOWING ACROSS THE LAKE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY TO KEEP SOME LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS GOING. THESE WILL MAINLY BE OVER NE OHIO INTO NW PA. IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE A DRY PERIOD FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT MAY BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL SPILL ACROSS THE LAKE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH NE OHIO AND NW PA GETTING MOST OF THE SHOWERS. WE ARE SLIGHTLY CONCERNED THAT SOME SNOW MAY MIX IN ON THE HILLTOPS OF NW PA SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST SUNDAY. LAKE ENHANCED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL LINGER IN THE FAR EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE LAKE THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES ZONAL THE SECOND HALF OF SUNDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. BY MONDAY MORNING ANOTHER VORT MAX DIVES SOUTH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE SURFACE HIGH TRANSLATES OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL FORM IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...AND MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE MEASURABLE RAINFALL ON MONDAY. WHILE THE AREA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW MOST OF MONDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50`S. THE RAIN WILL LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY AND EVENTUALLY COME TO AN END BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE HIGH FILLS AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD. THE REST OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE DRY WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...DESPITE THE RIDGING. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR INDIANAPOLIS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. AS IT DOES IFR CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. .OUTLOOK...NON VFR AT TIMES THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY FRIDAY...THEN AGAIN ON SATURDAY IN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. && .MARINE... WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER INDIANA WILL MOVE TO NEAR LAKE ONTARIO OVERNIGHT. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS ON LAKE ERIE WILL BACK TO NORTHWEST BY THURSDAY MORNING AND THEN SOUTHWEST AGAIN BY THURSDAY EVENING AS THE LOW CURLS NW INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS ON EXTREME EASTERN LAKE ERIE BY THURSDAY EVENING...THEN INCREASE TO 20-25 KNOTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY(EAST HALF) AS THIS LOW MERGES WITH THE NEXT LOW MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ON THE EAST END STARTING SOMETIME ON FRIDAY...EXPANDING TO ALL NEARSHORE WATERS EARLY SATURDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. THE SMALL CRAFTS WILL NEED TO LINGER INTO SUNDAY WHEN CONDITIONS START TO IMPROVE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE LAKE. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MULLEN NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA/LOMBARDY SHORT TERM...MULLEN LONG TERM...MAYERS AVIATION...DJB MARINE...KEC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1143 PM CDT WED OCT 15 2014 .UPDATE... UPDATED TO ADD 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 932 PM CDT WED OCT 15 2014/ UPDATE... MIDEVENING GOES IR IMAGERY SHOWED MIDLEVEL OVERCAST CLOUDINESS... ROUGHLY NORTHEAST OF A TUPELO TO MEMPHIS TO JONESBORO LINE. DAYTIME TEMPS WERE CONSIDERABLY COOLER UNDER THE OVERCAST...BUT LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WERE ALLOWING AREAS TO THE SOUTHWEST TO COOL MORE QUICKLY. SOME CONCERN FOR PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT...NEAR THE CLEARING LINE. 12Z HRRR MODEL PROGGED BRIEF /1 HOUR/ VISIBILITY REDUCTION TO 4 MILES NEAR CORINTH AND JACKSON...BUT OTHERWISE LITTLE FOG POTENTIAL. PWB PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 PM CDT WED OCT 15 2014/ UPDATE... UPDATED TO ADD 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT WED OCT 15 2014/ DISCUSSION... CURRENT H5 ANALYSIS PLACES AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER CENTRAL INDIANA WITH THE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...EASTERN TENNESSEE...AND PORTIONS OF GEORGIA AND ALABAMA. AN ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW IS ALSO CENTERED IN CENTRAL INDIANA WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST. THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS BROAD UPPER TROUGH HAS PROVIDED CLOUD COVER ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY AND ALSO PRODUCED VERY LIGHT SHOWERS EARLIER IN THE DAY. OVERNIGHT CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST WITH NO SIGNIFICANT POPS AS LOWS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR MID OCTOBER. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON THURSDAY AS UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS BUILD OVER THE AREA. WINDS FROM THE EAST WILL BE LIGHTER AND WILL SHIFT ON THURSDAY NIGHT TO BE FROM THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER ON FRIDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH THIS FRONT...SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY SIGNIFICANT POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER ON SATURDAY UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE RAIN FREE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL PROVIDE PLEASANT CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MODELS INDICATE A SHORTWAVE MOVING JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE MIDSOUTH ON MONDAY. NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE LIES IN CURRENT SOLUTIONS AND MODELS DO NOT INDICATE MUCH MOISTURE PRESENT FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT POPS. FOR NOW HAVE JUST INCLUDED PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR PARTS OF THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY PM WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCES FOR POPS. AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST MOVES FURTHER EAST...MODELS INDICATE A RIDGE MOVING INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. THUS HAVE KEPT CONDITIONS DRY LATE IN THE PERIOD. ZDM && AVIATION... 06Z TAF CYCLE PATCHY MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT MKL/TUP BETWEEN 16/08-12Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE TO WEST WINDS BETWEEN 5-7 KTS AFTER 16/15Z...THEN BECOME LIGHT AFTER 17/00Z. CJC && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...NONE. MO...NONE. MS...NONE. TN...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
734 AM EDT THU OCT 16 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH TODAY. THIS FRONT WILL PROVIDE A SOAKING RAINFALL FOR THE ENTIRE REGION...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. IT WILL TURN SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ON SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY MUCH COOLER WEATHER FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 644 AM EDT...WIDESPREAD RAIN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...AS GAPS IN THE RADAR ARE FILLING IN. LOCAL HI RES MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR AND LOCAL WRF CONTINUE TO INDICATE BANDS OF RAIN WILL TRACK FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OF THE REGION THIS MORNING. EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS ARE APPARENT IN THE RADAR IMAGERY...WHICH WILL ENHANCE RAINFALL RATES. A WARM CONVEYOR-BELT OF MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN IS EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...AS STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT IS TRANSPORTING MOISTURE POLEWARD AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A SPRAWLING CLOSED UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...AN OCCLUDED BOUNDARY POSITIONED OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WILL GRADUALLY PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE THE LOW LEVEL FOCUS FOR THE RAINFALL...WITH AN IMPINGING LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET BRINGING SEVERAL BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING...PUSHING EASTWARD INTO NE NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. SO THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE. RAINFALL RATES COULD EXCEED ONE HALF INCH PER HOUR AT TIMES...BUT FFG VALUES ARE VERY HIGH /AROUND 2.5 TO 3 INCHES IN 3 HOURS/ AND ARE NOT LIKELY BE EXCEEDED. DUE TO DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS MINIMAL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME MINOR URBAN FLOODING ESPECIALLY WHERE FALLEN LEAVES CLOG STORM DRAINS. REFER TO HYDRO SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN NOTED SOUTH OF NYC EARLY THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...ALTHOUGH THE INSTABILITY WILL BE MAINLY ELEVATED WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER LIMITING SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY /5 PERCENT OR LESS/ FOR SOME OF THE CONVECTION SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY TO PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS AS THE 40-50 KT LOW LEVEL JET MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...IT IS HIGHLY QUESTIONABLE THAT THESE WINDS WILL BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN. SO WHILE A ROGUE STRONG WIND GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT...WIDESPREAD STRONG WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED WITH THE CONVECTION. AS THE OCCLUDED BOUNDARY PROGRESSES EASTWARD AND THE UPPER LOW STARTS TO TRACK NORTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION...THE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT INTO INTERIOR AND COASTAL NEW ENGLAND BY THIS EVENING. AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF ALBANY WILL SEE THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT END LATER THIS MORNING...WITH HEAVY RAIN FOR AREAS TO THE NORTH AND EAST TAPERING OFF TO SHOWERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD TODAY WITH HUMID CONDITIONS ALSO PERSISTING IN THE MOIST AIR MASS. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE OCCLUDED BOUNDARY WILL PUSH EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND AND THIS EVENING...AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACKS NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL STILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...LEAVING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ESPECIALLY NORTH OF CAPITAL DISTRICT. SHOWERS WILL TEND TO TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT AS WEAK SURFACE RIDGING OCCURS WITH THE FLOW ALOFT STARTING TO BECOME MORE ZONAL. WHILE IT WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS...LOW TEMPS WILL STILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH NO SIGNIFICANT TEMP CHANGE IN THE AIR MASS. IT WILL BE NOTICEABLE LESS HUMID THOUGH. FRIDAY WILL FEATURE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION...AS WE WILL BE IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO DIG ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHEAST CANADA. THERE COULD BE A FEW LIGHT UPSLOPE SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...BUT MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE RAIN-FREE. TEMPS WILL STILL BE QUITE MILD WITH DEEPER MIXING EXPECTED. HIGHS COULD TOP 70 FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS OUT AREA WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS FAR WESTERN ZONES BY SUNRISE. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SOMEWHAT MOISTURE-STARVED BUT WILL HAVE GOOD DYNAMICS TO WORK WITH. MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...WITH LIKELY POPS CONFINED TO THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT TEMPS SHOULD WARM WELL INTO THE 60S FROM GENERALLY THE HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE LONGWAVE PATTERN AND HAVE IT AMPLIFYING AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK WITH A RIDGING BUILDING OVER ROCKIES AND PLAINS AND SHORT WAVE ENERGY MAINTAINING AND DEEPENING THE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THE GUIDANCE INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE REGION BY MID WEEK...HOWEVER THERE ARE DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODELS ON ITS EVOLUTION. WHAT ALL THIS MEANS IS A COOL PATTERN FOR THE REGION. THE REGION WILL BE UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD AIR ADVECTION SUNDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. WE ARE LOOKING AT COOL DAY WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND BRISK WESTERLY WINDS MAKING IT FEEL CHILLIER. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL BRIEFLY BECOME ZONAL BETWEEN SHORT WAVE TROUGHS AS WE START THE NEW WORK WEEK. WHILE AT THE SURFACE SOME RIDGING WILL BUILD IN BUT SHOULD QUICKLY SHIFT OFFSHORE. A SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA WILL RETURN THE TROUGH TO THE REGION WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO FORM OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WOULD CAUSE THE SURFACE LOW TO TRACK TO OUR SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TO MID ATLANTIC REGION. WITH THE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A LARGE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ITS ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD IN ADVANCE OF BOUNDARY AND LOW AND INCREASE IN INTENSITY THIS MORNING AS A LOW LEVEL JET MOVES INTO THE REGION. CAN NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBLE FOR A THUNDERSTORM...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDED MENTION IN TAFS. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE OCCLUDED BOUNDARY THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DECREASES. OVERALL EXPECTED MVFR CONDITIONS WITH POSSIBLE BRIEF IFR IN HEAVIER SHOWERS AHEAD AND WITH THE BOUNDARY. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...HOWEVER CONDITIONS MAY LOWER TOWARD DAYBREAK IN SOME AREAS DUE TO PATCHY GROUND FOG FORMATION. EAST-SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. HAVE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN TAFS AS THE LOW LEVEL JET MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST IN THE EVENING AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. OUTLOOK... FRI NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. SAT-SAT NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. SUN: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. SUN NIGHT-MON: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. && .FIRE WEATHER... A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH TODAY. THIS FRONT WILL PROVIDE A SOAKING RAINFALL FOR THE ENTIRE REGION...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. IT WILL TURN SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ON SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY MUCH COOLER WEATHER FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF ONLY 65 TO 80 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 90 TO 100 PERCENT. MINIMUM RH VALUES FORECAST TO DROP TO BETWEEN 45 TO 65 PERCENT ON FRIDAY. WINDS TODAY WILL BE SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AROUND 5 MPH TONIGHT...SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH FOR FRIDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... A SOAKING RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY AS SEVERAL BANDS OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MOVE THROUGH. MOST AREAS SHOULD RECEIVE AROUND 1-2 INCHES OF RAINFALL...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS GENERALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CATSKILLS AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER...RAINFALL WILL VARY SPATIALLY...AS LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE PERSISTENT CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS OCCUR. PONDING OF WATER IS LIKELY WHERE FALLEN LEAVES CLOG STORM DRAINS. MINOR URBAN FLOODING IS POSSIBLE DUE TO RAPID RUNOFF. OTHERWISE...DUE TO ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS PRODUCING UNUSUALLY LOW WATER LEVELS...RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. SOME WITHIN BANK RISES ARE EXPECTED. THE LATEST METEOROLOGICAL MODEL ENSEMBLE FORECASTS /MMEFS/ CONTINUE TO INDICATE RIVER LEVELS IN OUR HSA WILL REMAIN BELOW CAUTION STAGE THROUGH THE EVENT. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL PUSH EAST OF THE REGION BY TONIGHT...WITH JUST SOME LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO FRIDAY. ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL BE LIGHT AND WILL NOT HAVE ANY FURTHER IMPACT ON RIVERS. ALSO THE LATEST METEOROLOGICAL MODEL ENSEMBLE FORECASTS /MMEFS/ INDICATE RIVER LEVELS IN OUR HSA WILL REMAIN BELOW CAUTION STAGE THROUGH THE EVENT. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .CLIMATE... TEMPERATURE RECORDS WERE SET... ALBANY... THE LOW TEMPERATURE WAS ONLY 70 DEGREES FOR OCTOBER 15TH. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR THE DATE OF 66 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1954. IN ADDITION...THE 70 DEGREE MINIMUM ALSO TIES FOR THE HIGHEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR THE MONTH OF OCTOBER WHICH OCCURRED BACK ON OCTOBER 5 IN 1926. NOTE: DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874. A RECORD EVENT REPORT WAS ISSUED. POUGHKEEPSIE... THE LOW TEMPERATURE WAS ONLY 69 DEGREES FOR OCTOBER 15TH. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR THE DATE OF 65 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1954. IN ADDITION...THE 69 DEGREE MINIMUM ALSO TIES FOR THE HIGHEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR THE MONTH OF OCTOBER WHICH OCCURRED BACK ON OCTOBER 7 IN 2005. NOTE...DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949...HOWEVER DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 TO JULY 2000. A RECORD EVENT REPORT WAS ISSUED. GLENS FALLS... THE HIGH TEMPERATURE WAS 78 DEGREES FOR OCTOBER 15TH. THIS BREAKS THE RECORD FOR THE DATE OF 77 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1956. NOTE...DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949. A RECORD EVENT REPORT WAS ISSUED. THIS WAS THE SECOND RECORD HIGH FOR GLENS FALLS...ON OCTOBER 14TH THE HIGH WAS 78 DEGREES WHICH BROKE THE OLD RECORD OF 76 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1956. A RECORD EVENT REPORT WAS ISSUED. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. MA...NONE. VT...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JPV NEAR TERM...JPV SHORT TERM...JPV LONG TERM...IAA AVIATION...IAA/KL FIRE WEATHER...JPV HYDROLOGY...JPV CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
644 AM EDT THU OCT 16 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH TODAY. THIS FRONT WILL PROVIDE A SOAKING RAINFALL FOR THE ENTIRE REGION...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. IT WILL TURN SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ON SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY MUCH COOLER WEATHER FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 644 AM EDT...WIDESPREAD RAIN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...AS GAPS IN THE RADAR ARE FILLING IN. LOCAL HI RES MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR AND LOCAL WRF CONTINUE TO INDICATE BANDS OF RAIN WILL TRACK FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OF THE REGION THIS MORNING. EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS ARE APPARENT IN THE RADAR IMAGERY...WHICH WILL ENHANCE RAINFALL RATES. A WARM CONVEYOR-BELT OF MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN IS EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...AS STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT IS TRANSPORTING MOISTURE POLEWARD AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A SPRAWLING CLOSED UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...AN OCCLUDED BOUNDARY POSITIONED OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WILL GRADUALLY PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE THE LOW LEVEL FOCUS FOR THE RAINFALL...WITH AN IMPINGING LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET BRINGING SEVERAL BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING...PUSHING EASTWARD INTO NE NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. SO THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE. RAINFALL RATES COULD EXCEED ONE HALF INCH PER HOUR AT TIMES...BUT FFG VALUES ARE VERY HIGH /AROUND 2.5 TO 3 INCHES IN 3 HOURS/ AND ARE NOT LIKELY BE EXCEEDED. DUE TO DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS MINIMAL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME MINOR URBAN FLOODING ESPECIALLY WHERE FALLEN LEAVES CLOG STORM DRAINS. REFER TO HYDRO SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN NOTED SOUTH OF NYC EARLY THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...ALTHOUGH THE INSTABILITY WILL BE MAINLY ELEVATED WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER LIMITING SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY /5 PERCENT OR LESS/ FOR SOME OF THE CONVECTION SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY TO PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS AS THE 40-50 KT LOW LEVEL JET MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...IT IS HIGHLY QUESTIONABLE THAT THESE WINDS WILL BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN. SO WHILE A ROGUE STRONG WIND GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT...WIDESPREAD STRONG WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED WITH THE CONVECTION. AS THE OCCLUDED BOUNDARY PROGRESSES EASTWARD AND THE UPPER LOW STARTS TO TRACK NORTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION...THE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT INTO INTERIOR AND COASTAL NEW ENGLAND BY THIS EVENING. AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF ALBANY WILL SEE THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT END LATER THIS MORNING...WITH HEAVY RAIN FOR AREAS TO THE NORTH AND EAST TAPERING OFF TO SHOWERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD TODAY WITH HUMID CONDITIONS ALSO PERSISTING IN THE MOIST AIR MASS. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE OCCLUDED BOUNDARY WILL PUSH EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND AND THIS EVENING...AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACKS NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL STILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...LEAVING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ESPECIALLY NORTH OF CAPITAL DISTRICT. SHOWERS WILL TEND TO TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT AS WEAK SURFACE RIDGING OCCURS WITH THE FLOW ALOFT STARTING TO BECOME MORE ZONAL. WHILE IT WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS...LOW TEMPS WILL STILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH NO SIGNIFICANT TEMP CHANGE IN THE AIR MASS. IT WILL BE NOTICEABLE LESS HUMID THOUGH. FRIDAY WILL FEATURE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION...AS WE WILL BE IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO DIG ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHEAST CANADA. THERE COULD BE A FEW LIGHT UPSLOPE SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...BUT MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE RAIN-FREE. TEMPS WILL STILL BE QUITE MILD WITH DEEPER MIXING EXPECTED. HIGHS COULD TOP 70 FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS OUT AREA WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS FAR WESTERN ZONES BY SUNRISE. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SOMEWHAT MOISTURE-STARVED BUT WILL HAVE GOOD DYNAMICS TO WORK WITH. MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...WITH LIKELY POPS CONFINED TO THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT TEMPS SHOULD WARM WELL INTO THE 60S FROM GENERALLY THE HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE LONGWAVE PATTERN AND HAVE IT AMPLIFYING AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK WITH A RIDGING BUILDING OVER ROCKIES AND PLAINS AND SHORT WAVE ENERGY MAINTAINING AND DEEPENING THE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THE GUIDANCE INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE REGION BY MID WEEK...HOWEVER THERE ARE DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODELS ON ITS EVOLUTION. WHAT ALL THIS MEANS IS A COOL PATTERN FOR THE REGION. THE REGION WILL BE UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD AIR ADVECTION SUNDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. WE ARE LOOKING AT COOL DAY WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND BRISK WESTERLY WINDS MAKING IT FEEL CHILLIER. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL BRIEFLY BECOME ZONAL BETWEEN SHORT WAVE TROUGHS AS WE START THE NEW WORK WEEK. WHILE AT THE SURFACE SOME RIDGING WILL BUILD IN BUT SHOULD QUICKLY SHIFT OFFSHORE. A SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA WILL RETURN THE TROUGH TO THE REGION WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO FORM OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WOULD CAUSE THE SURFACE LOW TO TRACK TO OUR SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TO MID ATLANTIC REGION. WITH THE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A LARGE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ITS ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD IN ADVANCE OF BOUNDARY AND LOW AND INCREASE IN INTENSITY THIS MORNING AS A LOW LEVEL JET MOVES INTO THE REGION. CAN NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBLE FOR A THUNDERSTORM...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDED MENTION IN TAFS. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE OCCLUDED BOUNDARY THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DECREASES. OVERALL EXPECTED MVFR CONDITIONS WITH IFR IN HEAVIER SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. CEILINGS MAY IMPROVE TO VFR FOR A PERIOD IN THE EVENING HOWEVER SOME FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. HAVE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN TAFS AS THE LOW LEVEL JET MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST IN THE EVENING AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. OUTLOOK... FRI NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. SAT-SAT NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. SUN: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. SUN NIGHT-MON: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. && .FIRE WEATHER... A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH TODAY. THIS FRONT WILL PROVIDE A SOAKING RAINFALL FOR THE ENTIRE REGION...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. IT WILL TURN SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ON SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY MUCH COOLER WEATHER FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF ONLY 65 TO 80 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 90 TO 100 PERCENT. MINIMUM RH VALUES FORECAST TO DROP TO BETWEEN 45 TO 65 PERCENT ON FRIDAY. WINDS TODAY WILL BE SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AROUND 5 MPH TONIGHT...SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH FOR FRIDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... A SOAKING RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY AS SEVERAL BANDS OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MOVE THROUGH. MOST AREAS SHOULD RECEIVE AROUND 1-2 INCHES OF RAINFALL...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS GENERALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CATSKILLS AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER...RAINFALL WILL VARY SPATIALLY...AS LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE PERSISTENT CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS OCCUR. PONDING OF WATER IS LIKELY WHERE FALLEN LEAVES CLOG STORM DRAINS. MINOR URBAN FLOODING IS POSSIBLE DUE TO RAPID RUNOFF. OTHERWISE...DUE TO ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS PRODUCING UNUSUALLY LOW WATER LEVELS...RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. SOME WITHIN BANK RISES ARE EXPECTED. THE LATEST METEOROLOGICAL MODEL ENSEMBLE FORECASTS /MMEFS/ CONTINUE TO INDICATE RIVER LEVELS IN OUR HSA WILL REMAIN BELOW CAUTION STAGE THROUGH THE EVENT. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL PUSH EAST OF THE REGION BY TONIGHT...WITH JUST SOME LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO FRIDAY. ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL BE LIGHT AND WILL NOT HAVE ANY FURTHER IMPACT ON RIVERS. ALSO THE LATEST METEOROLOGICAL MODEL ENSEMBLE FORECASTS /MMEFS/ INDICATE RIVER LEVELS IN OUR HSA WILL REMAIN BELOW CAUTION STAGE THROUGH THE EVENT. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .CLIMATE... TEMPERATURE RECORDS WERE SET... ALBANY... THE LOW TEMPERATURE WAS ONLY 70 DEGREES FOR OCTOBER 15TH. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR THE DATE OF 66 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1954. IN ADDITION...THE 70 DEGREE MINIMUM ALSO TIES FOR THE HIGHEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR THE MONTH OF OCTOBER WHICH OCCURRED BACK ON OCTOBER 5 IN 1926. NOTE: DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874. A RECORD EVENT REPORT WAS ISSUED. POUGHKEEPSIE... THE LOW TEMPERATURE WAS ONLY 69 DEGREES FOR OCTOBER 15TH. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR THE DATE OF 65 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1954. IN ADDITION...THE 69 DEGREE MINIMUM ALSO TIES FOR THE HIGHEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR THE MONTH OF OCTOBER WHICH OCCURRED BACK ON OCTOBER 7 IN 2005. NOTE...DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949...HOWEVER DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 TO JULY 2000. A RECORD EVENT REPORT WAS ISSUED. GLENS FALLS... THE HIGH TEMPERATURE WAS 78 DEGREES FOR OCTOBER 15TH. THIS BREAKS THE RECORD FOR THE DATE OF 77 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1956. NOTE...DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949. A RECORD EVENT REPORT WAS ISSUED. THIS WAS THE SECOND RECORD HIGH FOR GLENS FALLS...ON OCTOBER 14TH THE HIGH WAS 78 DEGREES WHICH BROKE THE OLD RECORD OF 76 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1956. A RECORD EVENT REPORT WAS ISSUED. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. MA...NONE. VT...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JPV NEAR TERM...JPV SHORT TERM...JPV LONG TERM...IAA AVIATION...IAA FIRE WEATHER...JPV HYDROLOGY...JPV CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1103 AM CDT THU OCT 16 2014 .DISCUSSION... 1029 AM CDT CONTINUED TO SLOW THE CLEARING TREND WITH THE STRATUS DECK OVERHEAD THIS MORNING. THERE ARE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS NOTED ON LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY...BUT THOSE QUICKLY FILL BACK IN WHILE LOW CEILINGS OVER WEST AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS ARE NOT REALLY MOVING. SO HAVE SLOWED THE CLEARING TREND FOR THESE MORE TOWARDS THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON TIME FRAME AS THIS WESTERN EDGE ERODES AND SHIFTS EAST...WITH THE EASTERN AREAS NOT LIKELY OBSERVING CLEAR SKIES UNTIL EARLY THIS EVENING. REMOVED POPS THIS MORNING BUT DID MAKE MENTION OF PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE MAINLY FOR THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA...WITH ONGOING DRIZZLE LIKELY PERSISTING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS WEAK ASCENT CONTINUES WITHIN THE OBSERVED SHALLOW MOIST LAYER. RODRIGUEZ //PREV DISCUSSION... 340 AM CDT EARLY MORNING GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS OUR OLD UPPER SPINNING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION OVER WISCONSIN AND ILLINOIS. SHEARED OUT SHORT WAVE ENERGY/VORTICITY CHANNEL RUNNING NORTH-SOUTH CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE WITHIN THE MOIST LOW-MID LEVEL ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION... THOUGH THIS LIGHT/SPOTTY PRECIP SHOULD MOVE OFF TO THE EAST THIS MORNING WITH THE CONTINUED EASTWARD DRIFT OF THE UPPER TROUGH. CLEARING LINE OVER FAR WESTERN IL/WI EARLY THIS MORNING WILL ALSO MOVE SLOWLY EAST...WITH LOW CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO ERODE OVER NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS DURING THE MORNING AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NORTHERN IL BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH SUBSIDENCE IN REGION OF RISING HEIGHTS AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE UPPER RIDGE WHICH MOVES INTO THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. GRADIENT IN CLOUD COVERAGE WILL MAKE FOR A CONTRAST IN TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CWA TODAY...WITH WESTERN AREAS WARMING INTO THE MID 60S WITH CONSIDERABLE SUN WHILE EASTERN AREAS THAT ARE LAST TO CLEAR TOP OUT AROUND 60. ATTENTION THEN TURNS QUICKLY TO ANOTHER STRONG SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THIS MORNING. THIS WAVE IS ALSO PROGGED CLOSE OFF IN THE MID-LEVELS AS IT TRACKS EAST ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER TODAY...BEFORE DIGGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AND CARVING OUT A LARGE LONG-WAVE TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA AS THIS SYSTEM COMBINES WITH AND NEARLY FUJI-WARAS WITH OLD CLOSED LOW TO OUR EAST. SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE DAKOTAS IN RESPONSE TO THIS SECOND WAVE WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH A PACIFIC COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA VERY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE AIR MASS BEHIND THIS FRONT IS NOT SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER THAN THE ONE CURRENTLY OVER THE MIDWEST...THUS TEMPS FRIDAY EXPECTED TO AGAIN BE IN THE LOW-MID 60S WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS NEAR 30 MPH. THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TOWARD EVENING...WITH A SECONDARY PUSH OF COOLER AIR AS SURFACE WINDS SHIFT NORTHWEST FRIDAY EVENING. WHILE A FEW SPRINKLES CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THIS SECONDARY FRONT FRIDAY EVENING...THE BEST ORGANIZED FORCING FOR DEEPER LIFT AND MORE ORGANIZED PRECIP PRODUCTION WILL REMAIN MAINLY NORTH/EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE STRONG SHORT WAVE AND EVOLVING LONG-WAVE TROUGH AXIS ARE OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING...THOUGH GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING ANOTHER QUICK MOVING LOWER AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY. WHILE THIS MAY KEEP CLOUD COVER ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...THE GREATEST THREAT OF SHOWERS AGAIN REMAINS OVER THE LAKE AND ACROSS AREAS EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE CWA. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE BEHIND FRIDAY EVENINGS SECONDARY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS BACK IN THE LOW-MID 50S SATURDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY TO OUR EAST...SETTING THE STAGE FOR CLEARING SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND COLD OVERNIGHT TEMPS. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY DROP TO AROUND THE FREEZING MARK ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST IL AWAY FROM THE CHICAGO HEAT ISLAND BY SUNDAY MORNING. A GOOD FROST IS LIKELY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING CONDITIONS IN SOME SPOTS. THE SURFACE HIGH THEN MOVES EAST DURING THE DAY AS UPPER FLOW PATTERN REMAINS VERY PROGRESSIVE...WITH WINDS SHIFTING SOUTH BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT DIGGING SHORT WAVE WHICH IS PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ONCE AGAIN DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING AND PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS LIMITED...THOUGH STRONGER FORCING IS A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH WITH THIS SYSTEM THAN THOSE EARLIER IN THE WEEKEND. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LAKES BY MONDAY EVENING WITH THE COLD FRONT CLEARING THE CWA BY MONDAY NIGHT. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEPICT A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF NORTH AMERICA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS OUR MONDAY SYSTEM CLOSES OFF OVER THE EAST COAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS SLOWLY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DURING THIS TIME... WITH A PERIOD OF QUIET/DRY WEATHER THROUGH MID-WEEK. NORTHEAST-EAST LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH MAY LIMIT OUR WARMING BENEATH THE UPPER RIDGE...THOUGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AT LEAST RETURN TO LATE OCTOBER NORMALS OR A LITTLE BETTER. RATZER && .AVIATION... //ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z... * IFR/LOW MVFR CIGS VERY SLOWLY IMPROVING THROUGH THE DAY. KJB/BMD //DISCUSSION...UPDATED 16Z... MADE MODERATE CHANGES TO THE TIMING OF LIFTING CIGS TODAY TAKING A MUCH MORE PESSIMISTIC APPROACH CLOSER TO RAP/NAM GUIDANCE. SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE ACROSS THE AREA MAY OCCASIONALLY IMPACT THE TERMINALS TODAY TOO. BMD PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...12Z... IFR TO LOW END MVFR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS WESTERLY WINDS TRANSPORT A DRIER AIRMASS OVER THE AREA LATER TODAY. WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE SOME STRONG GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. KJB //ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z... * LOW WITH CIG TRENDS TODAY. * HIGH WITH ALL OTHER ELEMENTS. KJB/BMD //OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 12Z... * FRIDAY NIGHT...DRY/VFR. GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. * SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...DRY/VFR. * MONDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. * TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...DRY/VFR. EASTERLY WINDS. KJB && .MARINE... 148 AM CDT WINDS ACROSS THE LAKE WILL BACK WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY AND REMAIN AROUND 10 KT DURING THE DAY TODAY AS A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE WESTERN LAKES. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER DAY OVER THE LAKE TODAY. THE NEXT WEATHER EVENT OF INCREASING INTEREST IS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER NORTH DAKOTA. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BOARDER TODAY AND APPROACH LAKE SUPERIOR BY LATE TONIGHT. FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO MERGE THIS LOW WITH ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO BY FRIDAY...THEN DEEPEN THE LOW TO AROUND 29.1 INCHES AS IT SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN QUEBEC LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO RESULT IN INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS UP IN THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE OVER THE LAKE ON FRIDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT LOOKS TO SHIFT OVER THE LAKE LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...LIKELY RESULTING IN A NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHIFT...WITH EVEN STRONGER SPEEDS. GALE FORCE WINDS OF 35 TO 40 KT APPEAR PROBABLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE LAKE FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY BEFORE THE WINDS BEGIN ABATING. FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OVER THE WESTERN LAKES REGION BY SUNDAY...RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF LIGHTER WINDS. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THE WINDS COULD INCREASE A BIT OVER THE LAKE AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM SHIFTS OVER THE WESTERN LAKES REGION. THIS APPEARS TO BE A WEAKER SYSTEM AT THIS POINT...THUS GALE FORCE WINDS APPEAR UNLIKELY WITH THIS EVENT. KJB && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. IN...NONE. LM...GALE WATCH...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-LMZ567- LMZ868...7 PM FRIDAY TO 7 PM SATURDAY. GALE WATCH...LMZ080-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779- LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...7 PM FRIDAY TO 3 PM SATURDAY. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
  [top] Area Forecast Discussion NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 1038 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1038 AM CDT THU OCT 16 2014 Persistent upper low that has brought several days of clouds and showers to the Midwest is slowly exiting the region this morning, with latest water vapor imagery showing it located over Ohio. Cloud cover from this feature still blankets much of central Illinois: however, skies have cleared along/west of a Galesburg to Jacksonville line. Clearing is making only very slow eastward progress, with satellite timing tools suggesting east-central Illinois will likely remain overcast through the afternoon. Meanwhile further west, skies will become mostly sunny along/west of the I-55 corridor. High temperatures will range from around 60 along the Indiana border to the upper 60s in the Illinois River Valley. Will make some updates to hourly sky/temp grids and send a zone update out shortly. && .SHORT TERM...(Today) ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT THU OCT 16 2014 Deep upper low over Ohio this morning, keeping cloud cover all the way back into Illinois under northerly/cyclonic flow. Back edge to the clouds pretty distinct this morning to the west, just east of the Mississippi River Valley. Weak ridging moving out of the Plains, but the cut off low is very slow to move out of the region until the kicker moves in. Said wave is over Montana this morning and slated to move in late tonight, though the upper low will begin its easterly drift today. Very slow in going anywhere, the big question for today is the timing of the back edge/clearing. 850mb-700mb moisture profiles pretty similar btwn GFS and NAM...with the HRRR also slow to clear today. Most of the CWA remains under cloudy skies this morning...slowly clearing the western half of the state by mid day. As a result, cooler in the east. && .LONG TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday) ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT THU OCT 16 2014 With the upper low moving out today and tonight...northwesterly flow briefly kicks in...with kicker wave diving into the larger scale trof and spinning around the exiting system. New wave bringing a weak sfc boundary that is barely a shift of winds. Cold front expected to pass with little notice on Friday. However weak, an increasing pressure gradient at the surface and some higher winds aloft will result in a breezy day with 20mph winds in the northern half of the state sustained...gusting 25-30. Ridge builds in for the weekend and the forecast remains dry with highs in the 50s and a chilly Sunday morning. Next chance for precip very small and in response to another wave moving into the Upper Midwest late Sunday/Monday. In fact, the ECMWF is the only model persistent with this feature actually pushing any QPF. The GFS has the wave, but remains dry this far south. Weak southerly flow and cloud cover will make Sunday night a little warmer than Sat night. Better precip chances will be further to the north, as the wave is running into a weak ridge over the region. That being said, silent slight chances on Sun night/Mon remain the only precip in the forecast. Sfc ridging and slightly cooler than seasonal norms expected in the remainder of the 7 day forecast. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning) ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT THU OCT 16 2014 MVFR and IFR, with some patchy VLIFR conditons are expected for the next several hours before we see conditions slowly improve from west to east later this morning. Satellite data and surface obs indicate widespread IFR and MVFR cigs were across our area with KBMI just recently reporting 1/4sm in fog. The backedge of the clouds was located from just west of Galesburg to just east of Winchester with boundary layer winds remaining out of the north, taking the cloud shield from north to south this morning. So as long as the winds just off the surface remain northerly, its going to be tough to get the clouds to shift east and track out of our area until later this morning. It appears as the surface ridge axis shifts across the area later this morning, boundary layer winds will start to become more southwesterly which will help push the lower clouds east with the clearing taking place first at PIA and SPI, and then by early afternoon we should see BMI and DEC go at least broken on the MVFR cloud deck while CMI remains overcast until 21z or later. Surface winds will start out from the northwest this morning and then back more into the west and southwest during the afternoon over most of the area. Wind speeds will average around 10 kts today. Southerly winds at 5 to 10 kts expected tonight ahead of a cold front that is slated to move through the TAF sites Friday morning. With most areas expected to see a mostly clear sky tonight, we may see some patchy fog form late but winds may hold up enough to prevent any widespread development. For now will not include in this set of TAFs but may need to be addressed in later forecasts. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...Barnes SHORT TERM...HJS LONG TERM...HJS AVIATION...Smith
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
907 AM CDT THU OCT 16 2014 .DISCUSSION... 340 AM CDT EARLY MORNING GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS OUR OLD UPPER SPINNING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION OVER WISCONSIN AND ILLINOIS. SHEARED OUT SHORT WAVE ENERGY/VORTICITY CHANNEL RUNNING NORTH-SOUTH CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE WITHIN THE MOIST LOW-MID LEVEL ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION... THOUGH THIS LIGHT/SPOTTY PRECIP SHOULD MOVE OFF TO THE EAST THIS MORNING WITH THE CONTINUED EASTWARD DRIFT OF THE UPPER TROUGH. CLEARING LINE OVER FAR WESTERN IL/WI EARLY THIS MORNING WILL ALSO MOVE SLOWLY EAST...WITH LOW CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO ERODE OVER NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS DURING THE MORNING AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NORTHERN IL BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH SUBSIDENCE IN REGION OF RISING HEIGHTS AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE UPPER RIDGE WHICH MOVES INTO THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. GRADIENT IN CLOUD COVERAGE WILL MAKE FOR A CONTRAST IN TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CWA TODAY...WITH WESTERN AREAS WARMING INTO THE MID 60S WITH CONSIDERABLE SUN WHILE EASTERN AREAS THAT ARE LAST TO CLEAR TOP OUT AROUND 60. ATTENTION THEN TURNS QUICKLY TO ANOTHER STRONG SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THIS MORNING. THIS WAVE IS ALSO PROGGED CLOSE OFF IN THE MID-LEVELS AS IT TRACKS EAST ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER TODAY...BEFORE DIGGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AND CARVING OUT A LARGE LONG-WAVE TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA AS THIS SYSTEM COMBINES WITH AND NEARLY FUJI-WARAS WITH OLD CLOSED LOW TO OUR EAST. SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE DAKOTAS IN RESPONSE TO THIS SECOND WAVE WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH A PACIFIC COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA VERY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE AIR MASS BEHIND THIS FRONT IS NOT SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER THAN THE ONE CURRENTLY OVER THE MIDWEST...THUS TEMPS FRIDAY EXPECTED TO AGAIN BE IN THE LOW-MID 60S WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS NEAR 30 MPH. THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TOWARD EVENING...WITH A SECONDARY PUSH OF COOLER AIR AS SURFACE WINDS SHIFT NORTHWEST FRIDAY EVENING. WHILE A FEW SPRINKLES CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THIS SECONDARY FRONT FRIDAY EVENING...THE BEST ORGANIZED FORCING FOR DEEPER LIFT AND MORE ORGANIZED PRECIP PRODUCTION WILL REMAIN MAINLY NORTH/EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE STRONG SHORT WAVE AND EVOLVING LONG-WAVE TROUGH AXIS ARE OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING...THOUGH GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING ANOTHER QUICK MOVING LOWER AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY. WHILE THIS MAY KEEP CLOUD COVER ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...THE GREATEST THREAT OF SHOWERS AGAIN REMAINS OVER THE LAKE AND ACROSS AREAS EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE CWA. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE BEHIND FRIDAY EVENINGS SECONDARY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS BACK IN THE LOW-MID 50S SATURDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY TO OUR EAST...SETTING THE STAGE FOR CLEARING SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND COLD OVERNIGHT TEMPS. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY DROP TO AROUND THE FREEZING MARK ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST IL AWAY FROM THE CHICAGO HEAT ISLAND BY SUNDAY MORNING. A GOOD FROST IS LIKELY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING CONDITIONS IN SOME SPOTS. THE SURFACE HIGH THEN MOVES EAST DURING THE DAY AS UPPER FLOW PATTERN REMAINS VERY PROGRESSIVE...WITH WINDS SHIFTING SOUTH BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT DIGGING SHORT WAVE WHICH IS PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ONCE AGAIN DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING AND PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS LIMITED...THOUGH STRONGER FORCING IS A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH WITH THIS SYSTEM THAN THOSE EARLIER IN THE WEEKEND. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LAKES BY MONDAY EVENING WITH THE COLD FRONT CLEARING THE CWA BY MONDAY NIGHT. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEPICT A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF NORTH AMERICA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS OUR MONDAY SYSTEM CLOSES OFF OVER THE EAST COAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS SLOWLY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DURING THIS TIME... WITH A PERIOD OF QUIET/DRY WEATHER THROUGH MID-WEEK. NORTHEAST-EAST LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH MAY LIMIT OUR WARMING BENEATH THE UPPER RIDGE...THOUGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AT LEAST RETURN TO LATE OCTOBER NORMALS OR A LITTLE BETTER. RATZER && .AVIATION... //ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 14Z... * IFR/LOW MVFR CIGS VERY SLOWLY IMPROVING THROUGH THE DAY. KJB/BMD //DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z... IFR TO LOW END MVFR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS WESTERLY WINDS TRANSPORT A DRIER AIRMASS OVER THE AREA LATER TODAY. WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE SOME STRONG GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. KJB //ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 14Z... * MEDIUM WITH CIG TRENDS TODAY. * HIGH WITH ALL OTHER ELEMENTS. KJB/BMD //OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 12Z... * FRIDAY NIGHT...DRY/VFR. GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. * SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...DRY/VFR. * MONDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. * TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...DRY/VFR. EASTERLY WINDS. KJB && .MARINE... 148 AM CDT WINDS ACROSS THE LAKE WILL BACK WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY AND REMAIN AROUND 10 KT DURING THE DAY TODAY AS A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE WESTERN LAKES. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER DAY OVER THE LAKE TODAY. THE NEXT WEATHER EVENT OF INCREASING INTEREST IS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER NORTH DAKOTA. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BOARDER TODAY AND APPROACH LAKE SUPERIOR BY LATE TONIGHT. FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO MERGE THIS LOW WITH ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO BY FRIDAY...THEN DEEPEN THE LOW TO AROUND 29.1 INCHES AS IT SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN QUEBEC LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO RESULT IN INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS UP IN THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE OVER THE LAKE ON FRIDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT LOOKS TO SHIFT OVER THE LAKE LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...LIKELY RESULTING IN A NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHIFT...WITH EVEN STRONGER SPEEDS. GALE FORCE WINDS OF 35 TO 40 KT APPEAR PROBABLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE LAKE FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY BEFORE THE WINDS BEGIN ABATING. FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OVER THE WESTERN LAKES REGION BY SUNDAY...RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF LIGHTER WINDS. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THE WINDS COULD INCREASE A BIT OVER THE LAKE AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM SHIFTS OVER THE WESTERN LAKES REGION. THIS APPEARS TO BE A WEAKER SYSTEM AT THIS POINT...THUS GALE FORCE WINDS APPEAR UNLIKELY WITH THIS EVENT. KJB && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. IN...NONE. LM...GALE WATCH...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-LMZ567- LMZ868...7 PM FRIDAY TO 7 PM SATURDAY. GALE WATCH...LMZ080-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779- LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...7 PM FRIDAY TO 3 PM SATURDAY. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 611 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2014 .SHORT TERM...(Today) ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT THU OCT 16 2014 Deep upper low over Ohio this morning, keeping cloud cover all the way back into Illinois under northerly/cyclonic flow. Back edge to the clouds pretty distinct this morning to the west, just east of the Mississippi River Valley. Weak ridging moving out of the Plains, but the cut off low is very slow to move out of the region until the kicker moves in. Said wave is over Montana this morning and slated to move in late tonight, though the upper low will begin its easterly drift today. Very slow in going anywhere, the big question for today is the timing of the back edge/clearing. 850mb-700mb moisture profiles pretty similar btwn GFS and NAM...with the HRRR also slow to clear today. Most of the CWA remains under cloudy skies this morning...slowly clearing the western half of the state by mid day. As a result, cooler in the east. && .LONG TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday) ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT THU OCT 16 2014 With the upper low moving out today and tonight...northwesterly flow briefly kicks in...with kicker wave diving into the larger scale trof and spinning around the exiting system. New wave bringing a weak sfc boundary that is barely a shift of winds. Cold front expected to pass with little notice on Friday. However weak, an increasing pressure gradient at the surface and some higher winds aloft will result in a breezy day with 20mph winds in the northern half of the state sustained...gusting 25-30. Ridge builds in for the weekend and the forecast remains dry with highs in the 50s and a chilly Sunday morning. Next chance for precip very small and in response to another wave moving into the Upper Midwest late Sunday/Monday. In fact, the ECMWF is the only model persistent with this feature actually pushing any QPF. The GFS has the wave, but remains dry this far south. Weak southerly flow and cloud cover will make Sunday night a little warmer than Sat night. Better precip chances will be further to the north, as the wave is running into a weak ridge over the region. That being said, silent slight chances on Sun night/Mon remain the only precip in the forecast. Sfc ridging and slightly cooler than seasonal norms expected in the remainder of the 7 day forecast. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning) ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT THU OCT 16 2014 MVFR and IFR, with some patchy VLIFR conditons are expected for the next several hours before we see conditions slowly improve from west to east later this morning. Satellite data and surface obs indicate widespread IFR and MVFR cigs were across our area with KBMI just recently reporting 1/4sm in fog. The backedge of the clouds was located from just west of Galesburg to just east of Winchester with boundary layer winds remaining out of the north, taking the cloud shield from north to south this morning. So as long as the winds just off the surface remain northerly, its going to be tough to get the clouds to shift east and track out of our area until later this morning. It appears as the surface ridge axis shifts across the area later this morning, boundary layer winds will start to become more southwesterly which will help push the lower clouds east with the clearing taking place first at PIA and SPI, and then by early afternoon we should see BMI and DEC go at least broken on the MVFR cloud deck while CMI remains overcast until 21z or later. Surface winds will start out from the northwest this morning and then back more into the west and southwest during the afternoon over most of the area. Wind speeds will average around 10 kts today. Southerly winds at 5 to 10 kts expected tonight ahead of a cold front that is slated to move through the TAF sites Friday morning. With most areas expected to see a mostly clear sky tonight, we may see some patchy fog form late but winds may hold up enough to prevent any widespread development. For now will not include in this set of TAFs but may need to be addressed in later forecasts. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...HJS LONG TERM...HJS AVIATION...Smith
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
942 AM EDT THU OCT 16 2014 .SYNOPSIS... AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER TODAY...THEN CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... UPDATE... BASED ON LATEST RAP/HRRR MDLS AND RADAR TRENDS HAVE SLOWED THE PROGRESSION OF THE STEADIER RAIN INTO THE FA UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. VISIBILITIES DOWNEAST ARE BEGINNING TO IMPROVE SO WILL ONLY CARRY PATCHY FOG THE REST OF THIS MORNING. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE THE TIMING OF RAINFALL AND AMOUNTS. 06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTED A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE FROM ABOUT CARIBOU BACK THROUGH ALLAGASH. NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES WERE RUNNING IN THE 60S. LATEST RADAR SHOWED A BATCH OF PRECIP(SHOWERS) MOVING ACROSS THE NWRN TIP OF MAINE W/SOME VERY LIGHT RETURNS SHOWING UP FROM TO TIME SOUTH OF THIS AREA DOWN INTO THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS. THE LATEST RAP AND NAM SOUNDINGS CONFIRMED THIS TO BE DRIZZLE W/A DEEP LLVL MOISTURE PROFILE, LIGHT ESE WINDS AND A DECENT DRY WEDGE NORTH OF THE MOIST LAYER. DECIDED TO CARRY DRIZZLE AND FOG INTO THE MID MORNING. THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWERS AROUND, BUT THEY WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED AND CONFINED TO THE W AND SW AS FORCING IS WEAK AT BEST AND LIMITED TO THE LLVLS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN TODAY W/READINGS IN THE 60S. ALL THIS IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS AN OCCLUDED FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TAP INTO A TROPICAL CONNECTION ASSOCIATED W/HRCN GONZALO. THIS CONNECTION CAN BE SEEN ON THE LATEST SATELLITE WV IMAGERY AS A STRONG PLUME IS SHOWN PUSHING N ALONG THE ATLC SEABOARD. HIGH PWATS OF 1.5+ INCHES, A LLVL JET OF 50 KTS AND STRONG SSE INFLOW THROUGH 700MBS SUPPORTS POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MDL SOUNDINGS ALSO POINT TO SOME ELEVATED CAPE ESPECIALLY FROM THE SW INTO EASTERN AREAS BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. LIGHTING STRIKES WERE SEEN ALONG THE VIRGINIA-NORTH CAROLINA COAST AS OF 06Z. DECIDED TO KEEP THE MENTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST AND ADDED THE MENTION OF TSTMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS INCLUDING PISCATAQUIS CO. AND UPSLOPE FAVORED AREAS WILL SEE OVER 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL W/SOME SPOTS HITTING 3 INCHES IN A 12 HR PERIOD. AFTER COORDINATION W/GYX, DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH. SOME MINOR FLOODING COULD OCCUR ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS, BUT RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL BE ABLE TO HANDLE THIS RAINFALL. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE OCCLUDED FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. DEEP MOISTURE...WITH A TROPICAL CONNECTION...WILL BE DRAWN NORTH ACROSS THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. AN AREA OF RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL CROSS THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE OCCLUSION WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ALSO POSSIBLE. PRECIPITATION WILL THEN TAPER TO SHOWERS IN THE WAKE OF THE OCCLUSION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. COULD HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS FRIDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DOWNEAST. A LOW LEVEL JET WILL ALSO CROSS THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE OCCLUSION. GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF THE OCCLUSION...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. HOWEVER...FORECAST WINDS APPEAR SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN WITH PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS FRIDAY/SATURDAY. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION SUNDAY...WHILE AN UPPER TROF CROSSES THE REGION. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS SUNDAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS DOWNEAST. COULD HAVE A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER TROF WILL MOVE NORTHEAST MONDAY. COULD HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MORNING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS MONDAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES NORTH WITH PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DOWNEAST MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS TUESDAY...WITH RAIN CHANCES THEN INCREASING TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS SUNDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES MONDAY/TUESDAY. && .AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NEAR TERM: IFR RIGHT INTO TONIGHT. THERE COULD BE PERIODS OF MVFR EARLY TODAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. SHORT TERM: IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN IMPROVING TO MVFR/VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS AND LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR COULD BE A CONCERN FRIDAY MORNING WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ALSO POSSIBLE. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS. GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY...THOUGH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS COULD LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS EARLY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: DECIDED TO GO W/A SCA STARTING LATER TONIGHT AS WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE OCCLUSION. THE NAM AND GFS BOTH SUPPORT A LLVL JET OF 50 KTS MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. SOME THIS STRONG WIND COULD MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. DECIDED TO GO W/GUSTS 25+ KTS AFTER MIDNIGHT W/SEAS BUILDING TO 7 FT BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE WATERS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN RAIN AND FOG FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052. && $$ NEAR TERM...DUDA/HEWITT SHORT TERM...NORCROSS LONG TERM...NORCROSS AVIATION...DUDA/HEWITT/NORCROSS MARINE...DUDA/HEWITT/NORCROSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
622 AM EDT THU OCT 16 2014 .SYNOPSIS... AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER TODAY...THEN CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... UPDATE... ADDED PATCHY FOG TO NORTHERN ZONES THIS MORNING. VISIBILITY AT KFVE NOW AT 1/4SM AND KHUL 2SM. OTHER THAN POPULATING CURRENT HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND EXTRAPOLATING TO FORECASTED HIGH TEMPS NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE THE TIMING OF RAINFALL AND AMOUNTS. 06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTED A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE FROM ABOUT CARIBOU BACK THROUGH ALLAGASH. NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES WERE RUNNING IN THE 60S. LATEST RADAR SHOWED A BATCH OF PRECIP(SHOWERS) MOVING ACROSS THE NWRN TIP OF MAINE W/SOME VERY LIGHT RETURNS SHOWING UP FROM TO TIME SOUTH OF THIS AREA DOWN INTO THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS. THE LATEST RAP AND NAM SOUNDINGS CONFIRMED THIS TO BE DRIZZLE W/A DEEP LLVL MOISTURE PROFILE, LIGHT ESE WINDS AND A DECENT DRY WEDGE NORTH OF THE MOIST LAYER. DECIDED TO CARRY DRIZZLE AND FOG INTO THE MID MORNING. THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWERS AROUND, BUT THEY WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED AND CONFINED TO THE W AND SW AS FORCING IS WEAK AT BEST AND LIMITED TO THE LLVLS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN TODAY W/READINGS IN THE 60S. ALL THIS IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS AN OCCLUDED FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TAP INTO A TROPICAL CONNECTION ASSOCIATED W/HRCN GONZALO. THIS CONNECTION CAN BE SEEN ON THE LATEST SATELLITE WV IMAGERY AS A STRONG PLUME IS SHOWN PUSHING N ALONG THE ATLC SEABOARD. HIGH PWATS OF 1.5+ INCHES, A LLVL JET OF 50 KTS AND STRONG SSE INFLOW THROUGH 700MBS SUPPORTS POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MDL SOUNDINGS ALSO POINT TO SOME ELEVATED CAPE ESPECIALLY FROM THE SW INTO EASTERN AREAS BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. LIGHTING STRIKES WERE SEEN ALONG THE VIRGINIA-NORTH CAROLINA COAST AS OF 06Z. DECIDED TO KEEP THE MENTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST AND ADDED THE MENTION OF TSTMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS INCLUDING PISCATAQUIS CO. AND UPSLOPE FAVORED AREAS WILL SEE OVER 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL W/SOME SPOTS HITTING 3 INCHES IN A 12 HR PERIOD. AFTER COORDINATION W/GYX, DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH. SOME MINOR FLOODING COULD OCCUR ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS, BUT RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL BE ABLE TO HANDLE THIS RAINFALL. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE OCCLUDED FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. DEEP MOISTURE...WITH A TROPICAL CONNECTION...WILL BE DRAWN NORTH ACROSS THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. AN AREA OF RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL CROSS THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE OCCLUSION WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ALSO POSSIBLE. PRECIPITATION WILL THEN TAPER TO SHOWERS IN THE WAKE OF THE OCCLUSION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. COULD HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS FRIDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DOWNEAST. A LOW LEVEL JET WILL ALSO CROSS THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE OCCLUSION. GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF THE OCCLUSION...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. HOWEVER...FORECAST WINDS APPEAR SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN WITH PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS FRIDAY/SATURDAY. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION SUNDAY...WHILE AN UPPER TROF CROSSES THE REGION. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS SUNDAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS DOWNEAST. COULD HAVE A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER TROF WILL MOVE NORTHEAST MONDAY. COULD HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MORNING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS MONDAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES NORTH WITH PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DOWNEAST MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS TUESDAY...WITH RAIN CHANCES THEN INCREASING TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS SUNDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES MONDAY/TUESDAY. && .AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NEAR TERM: IFR RIGHT INTO TONIGHT. THERE COULD BE PERIODS OF MVFR EARLY TODAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. SHORT TERM: IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN IMPROVING TO MVFR/VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS AND LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR COULD BE A CONCERN FRIDAY MORNING WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ALSO POSSIBLE. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS. GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY...THOUGH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS COULD LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS EARLY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: DECIDED TO GO W/A SCA STARTING LATER TONIGHT AS WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE OCCLUSION. THE NAM AND GFS BOTH SUPPORT A LLVL JET OF 50 KTS MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. SOME THIS STRONG WIND COULD MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. DECIDED TO GO W/GUSTS 25+ KTS AFTER MIDNIGHT W/SEAS BUILDING TO 7 FT BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE WATERS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN RAIN AND FOG FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052. && $$ NEAR TERM...DUDA/HEWITT SHORT TERM...NORCROSS LONG TERM...NORCROSS AVIATION...DUDA/HEWITT/NORCROSS MARINE...DUDA/HEWITT/NORCROSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1006 AM EDT THU OCT 16 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1003 AM EDT THU OCT 16 2014 ...CLOUDS STICKING AROUND BUT DRIZZLE AND FOG SHOULD END THIS AFTERNOON... TWEAKED GOING FORECAST MAINLY FOR THE DENSE FOG ALONG SHORELINE OF WESTERN CWA. LIMITED ADVECTION AS WINDS ARE LIGHT MAY MAKE IT HARD TO GET RID OF THIS FOG. FOR MOST PART...THICKEST FOG IS OVER THE LAKE BUT WEB CAMS FROM ASHLAND WI...PORCUPINE MTS...ONTONAGON...AND EAGLE HARBOR SHOW IT PUSHING JUST INLAND AS WELL. ELSEWHERE...JUST SEEING SOME LINGERING DRIZZLE OVER PARTS OF CNTRL CWA AND 1-3SM TYPE FOG. PROBABLY WILL SEE THE DRIZZLE AND FOG DISIPPATE BY EARLY AFTN BUT THE CLOUDS LIKELY WILL STAY DUE TO THE LACK OF DRY AIR ADVECTION BENEATH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AROUND H85-H8 PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND 12Z RAOBS FM KINL AND KGRB. IMPACT TO TEMPS NOT TOO LARGE AS HIGHEST READINGS IN THE 50S STILL EXPECTED OVER FAR WEST CWA WHERE SKIES ARE ALREADY PARTLY CLOUDY ATTM. NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OF NOTE IS PUSHING ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WITH SHARP WIND SHIFT NOTED OVER WESTERN DAKOTAS. SHOULD SEE SIMILAR WEATHER OVER UPR MICHIGAN ON FRIDAY WITH INCREASING NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS AND MORE RAIN AS THAT DAKOTAS SYSTEM MERGES WITH THE SYSTEM THAT MOVED ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION EARLIER THIS WEEK. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 459 AM EDT THU OCT 16 2014 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER IN/OH. MUCH OF THE FCST AREA REMAINS UNDER CONSIDERABLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE NW SIDE OF THIS FEATURE...AND KMQT RADAR HAS SHOWN SPOTTY -SHRA/SPRINKLES AT TIMES OVER THE ERN FCST AREA OVERNIGHT. MUCH OF FAR WRN UPPER MI ENJOYED SUNNY SKIES YESTERDAY. DURING THE NIGHT...SOME FOG HAS FORMED IN THAT AREA AS WELL AS SOME LOW CLOUDS FROM PORTIONS OF THE KEWEENAW DOWN ALONG THE VCNTY OF THE SHORELINE INTO NW WI. UPSTREAM...A RATHER POTENT LOOKING SHORTWAVE IS MOVING E ACROSS MT WITH ASSOCIATED SFC LOW IN THE ND/SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA BORDER AREA. FOR TODAY...SOME -SHRA/SPRINKLES MAY CONTINUE TO APPEAR AT TIMES THRU THE MID MORNING OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE FCST AREA UNDER LINGERING WEAK DEEP LAYER FORCING PER QVECTORS. DEEP LAYER QVECTOR DIVERGENCE THEN TAKES OVER...SO IT APPEARS DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE THE RULE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTN. BIGGEST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE CLOUD TRENDS. WITH A LIGHT/VRBL WIND REGIME ACROSS THE AREA TODAY BTWN SFC LOW IN SRN ONTARIO AND APPROACHING LOW MOVING ALONG U.S./CANADA BORDER...THERE WILL BE LITTLE ADVECTION OCCURRING. THUS...A PESSIMISTIC CLOUD FCST APPEARS TO BE THE WAY TO GO. THE W WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE THE BETTER OPPORTUNITY TO SEE SOME SUNSHINE...AND THIS SHOULD HELP BOOST TEMPS TO AROUND 60F. WHERE CLOUDS ARE MORE PERSISTENT...LWR 50S WILL BE MORE COMMON. TONIGHT...THE POTENT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK INTO NRN MN AND WILL HELP PICK UP THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY. AS THIS OCCURS...PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE LATTER FEATURE WILL SWING BACK TO THE NW WITH LEFT EXIT OF 100KT UPPER JET STREAK ON E SIDE OF THE LOW ASSISTING PCPN PRODUCTION. MUCH OF THAT PCPN SHOULD PASS BY TO THE E AND N OF UPPER MI...BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO MENTION SCHC POPS OVER THE FAR E LATE. MEANWHILE...FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL SPREAD INTO WRN UPPER MI. INITIALLY...DEEP MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN IS LACKING...SO IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME BEFORE PCPN DEVELOPS. BEST POTENTIAL FOR PCPN SHOULD COME WITH THE ADDITION OF LOWER LEVEL FORCING FROM SFC-850MB TROF TRAILING WNW FROM SFC LOW WHICH SHOULD BE IN THE VCNTY OF CNTRL UPPER MI AT 12Z MON. HAVE THUS INTRODUCED CHC POPS OVER WRN UPPER LATE TONIGHT. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 421 AM EDT THU OCT 16 2014 MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE MEDIUM/LONG TERM WL FOCUS ON POPS AND WINDS ON FRI INTO SAT AS A STRONG DISTURBANCE SLIDES THRU THE UPR LKS AND INTERACTS WITH SLOW MOVING CLOSED LO RESPONSIBLE FOR THE RECENT INCLEMENT WX OVER THE E HALF OF UPR MI. AS THE DISTURBANCES PHASE...A DEEP LO PRES WL DVLP OVER SE CANADA...BRINGING A STRONG AND COLDER NW FLOW THAT WL RESULT IN SOME LK ENHANCED PCPN FOR A TIME ON FRI NGT. RIGHT NOW...IT APPEARS MOST OF THE PCPN WL FALL AS RA. FRI/FRI NGT...STRONG SHRTWV CROSSING THE NRN ROCKIES EARLY THIS MRNG IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE UPR LKS ON FRI AND MERGE WITH THE SLUGGIST CLOSED LO NOW OVER THE OH RIVER VALLEY THAT WL BE MOVING NEWD THRU SE ONTARIO AT THAT TIME. THE RESULT WL BE A DEEPENING SFC LO PRES NEAR JAMES BAY AND STRENGTHENING NNW WINDS/CAD IN THE UPR LKS ON FRI AFTN AND NGT. ALTHOUGH THERE WL BE LTL MSTR INFLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE SHRTWV MOVING IN FM THE W ON FRI THAT WL LIMIT THE INTENSITY OF THE ACCOMPANYING QVECTOR CNVGC...VIGOROUS NATURE OF THIS SHRTWV/PVA ACCOMPANIED BY 12HR H5 HGT FALLS UP 100M WL SUPPORT LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NRN CWA ON THE CYC SIDE OF SHRTWV TRACK AND WHERE MODELS SHOW MORE APPRECIABLE DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC/UPR DVGC. EXPECT THE LOWEST POPS OVER THE SCENTRAL WITH DOWNSLOPE W VEERING NW LLVL WIND COMPONENT. AS NNW H925 WINDS INCRSG UP TO 40-45 KTS LATE FRI/FRI NGT DRIVE H85 TEMPS DOWN TO -4 TO -6C ON FRI NGT IN THE PRESENCE OF SOME LINGERING DEEP MSTR ON THE CYC SIDE OF A REINFORCING SHRTWV DIGGING SSEWD THRU MN...EXPECT A PERIOD OF LK ENHANCED PCPN THAT MAY FEATURE SOME SN MIXING IN WITH THE RA AT LEAST OVER THE HIER TERRAIN OF THE NW HALF. WINDS WL LIKELY AT LEAST APRCH ADVY CRITERIA...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LK SUP SHORE WITH THE INCRSG INSTABILITY. THE LK PCPN MAY BEGIN TO DIMINISH TOWARD 12Z SAT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF HGT RISES/MID LVL DRYING/LOWERING SUBSIDENCE INVRN UNDER THE DNVA IN THE WAKE OF THE UPR TROF SHIFTING INTO THE ERN LKS. ONE OTHER CONCERN WL BE THE HI WAVES WHIPPED UP ON LK SUP BY THE STRENGTHENING WINDS ON FRI NGT. SINCE THE LK SUP WATER LVL HAS RISEN UP TO HALF A FOOT ABV NORMAL...THERE MAY BE SOME BEACH FLOODING AT THE MORE EXPOSED LOCATIONS. SAT...THE APRCH OF A SHRTWV RDG AND ACCOMPANYING SFC HI PRES WL BRING DIMINISHING WINDS AND VIGOROUS MID LVL DRYING THAT WL CAUSE LK EFFECT PCPN ON SAT MRNG TO END IN THE AFTN IN THE PRESENCE OF DIURNAL HEATING EVEN IF A GOOD DEAL OF SC LINGERS WITHIN THE LLVL THERMAL TROF THAT IS PROGGED TO HOLD IN PLACE UNDER SUBSIDENCE INVRN NEAR H875 WITHIN THE NLY FLOW E OF THE APRCHG RDG AXIS. SOME CLRG IS LIKELY TO ARRIVE OVER THE W BY LATE IN THE AFTN WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE SFC RDG AXIS. SAT NGT...WITH RDG AXIS PASSING OVHD AND PWAT FCST AS LO AS 0.25 INCH SUPPORTING THE CLRG OF ANY LINGERING LO CLDS...EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL WELL INTO THE 20S OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF EVEN IF SOME HI CLDS ARRIVE LATE IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SHRTWV DIGGING SEWD THRU SCENTRAL CANADA. SINCE LO CLDS WL LINGER LONGER OVER THE E...TEMPS THERE WL NOT FALL AS FAR. SUN INTO MON...NEXT SHRTWV DROPPING SEWD AND INTO THE UPR LKS/UPR MIDWEST BY 12Z MON WL BRING INCRSG CLDS ON SUN AND THE NEXT CHC OF SHOWERS SUN AFTN INTO MON MRNG. ONCE AGAIN...MSTR INFLOW INTO THIS DISTURBANCE WL BE LIMITED...BUT FAIRLY VIGOROUS DPVA/QVECTOR CNVGC WILL BRING AT LEAST SCT SHOWERS BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF HGT RISES/DNVA IN THE WAKE OF THE SHRTWV SLIPPING TO THE SE DIMINISH THE PCPN THREAT LATER ON MON. ALL THE PCPN ACCOMPANYING THIS DISTURBANCE WL BE IN THE FORM OF RA EXTENDED...ALTHOUGH SOME CLDS AND EVEN A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER ON MON NGT UNDER LLVL CYC FLOW/LLVL THERMAL TROF LEFT IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SHRTWV/SFC LO...BLDG UPR RDG OVER CENTRAL NAMERICA AND SFC HI PRES IN THE GREAT LKS WL BRING DRY WX TO UPR MI. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 744 AM EDT THU OCT 16 2014 ON THE NW EDGE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY... CONSIDERABLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO RESULT IN LIFR CONDITIONS AT KSAW. WITH WEAK WIND FIELDS TODAY AND THUS LITTLE ADVECTION OCCURRING...LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE KSAW. DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD HELP RAISE CIGS A LITTLE...TO IFR LATE MORNING AND THEN TO MVFR THIS AFTN. MAY SEE LIFR CONDITIONS REDEVELOP LATE TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...AT KIWD AND KCMX...THE MAIN ISSUE HAS BEEN GROUND FOG TRENDS EARLY THIS MORNING. SURPRISED BOTH TERMINALS HAVE RECENTLY BECOME VFR AFTER DEALING WITH FOG...BUT BELIEVE THERE STILL COULD BE SOME FOG OR STRATUS YET EARLY THIS MORNING. THERE IS A MASS OF LOW CLOUDS JUST E OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...AND AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT EASTERLY...THESE CLOUDS MAY IMPACT KCMX WITH MVFR AND POTENTIALLY IFR CIGS LATER THIS MORNING. LOW PRES MOVING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL LIKELY BRING IFR CONDITIONS TO KIWD/KCMX LATE TONIGHT. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 434 AM EDT THU OCT 16 2014 EXPECT LIGHT WINDS INTO EARLY FRI UNDER A RELATIVELY WEAK PRES GRADIENT. BUT THEN AS A PAIR OF UPPER DISTURBANCES COMBINE ON FRI... A DEEP LO PRES WILL DEVELOP IN SE CANADA AND BRING INCREASING NNW WINDS THAT INCREASE TO GALE FORCE/UP TO 40 KTS ON FRI AFTERNOON AND FRI NIGHT THAT IMPACT ALMOST ALL OF LAKE SUPERIOR INTO NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. ISSUED GALE WATCHES FOR ALL BUT FAR WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...WHERE THE WINDS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG. AS A HI PRES RIDGE APPROACHES FROM THE W ON SAT...THE STRONG WINDS WILL DIMINISH W-E. ALTHOUGH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE/SURFACE LO PRES WILL TRACK ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK...NO STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR LSZ248>251-267. GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR LSZ266. DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT /11 AM CDT/ TODAY FOR LSZ162- 240>244-263-264. GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR LSZ263>265. GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR LSZ244-245. GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR LSZ242-243. LAKE MICHIGAN... GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR LMZ248-250. && $$ UPDATE...JLA SHORT TERM...ROLFSON LONG TERM...KC AVIATION...ROLFSON MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
745 AM EDT THU OCT 16 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 459 AM EDT THU OCT 16 2014 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER IN/OH. MUCH OF THE FCST AREA REMAINS UNDER CONSIDERABLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE NW SIDE OF THIS FEATURE...AND KMQT RADAR HAS SHOWN SPOTTY -SHRA/SPRINKLES AT TIMES OVER THE ERN FCST AREA OVERNIGHT. MUCH OF FAR WRN UPPER MI ENJOYED SUNNY SKIES YESTERDAY. DURING THE NIGHT...SOME FOG HAS FORMED IN THAT AREA AS WELL AS SOME LOW CLOUDS FROM PORTIONS OF THE KEWEENAW DOWN ALONG THE VCNTY OF THE SHORELINE INTO NW WI. UPSTREAM...A RATHER POTENT LOOKING SHORTWAVE IS MOVING E ACROSS MT WITH ASSOCIATED SFC LOW IN THE ND/SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA BORDER AREA. FOR TODAY...SOME -SHRA/SPRINKLES MAY CONTINUE TO APPEAR AT TIMES THRU THE MID MORNING OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE FCST AREA UNDER LINGERING WEAK DEEP LAYER FORCING PER QVECTORS. DEEP LAYER QVECTOR DIVERGENCE THEN TAKES OVER...SO IT APPEARS DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE THE RULE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTN. BIGGEST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE CLOUD TRENDS. WITH A LIGHT/VRBL WIND REGIME ACROSS THE AREA TODAY BTWN SFC LOW IN SRN ONTARIO AND APPROACHING LOW MOVING ALONG U.S./CANADA BORDER...THERE WILL BE LITTLE ADVECTION OCCURRING. THUS...A PESSIMISTIC CLOUD FCST APPEARS TO BE THE WAY TO GO. THE W WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE THE BETTER OPPORTUNITY TO SEE SOME SUNSHINE...AND THIS SHOULD HELP BOOST TEMPS TO AROUND 60F. WHERE CLOUDS ARE MORE PERSISTENT...LWR 50S WILL BE MORE COMMON. TONIGHT...THE POTENT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK INTO NRN MN AND WILL HELP PICK UP THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY. AS THIS OCCURS...PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE LATTER FEATURE WILL SWING BACK TO THE NW WITH LEFT EXIT OF 100KT UPPER JET STREAK ON E SIDE OF THE LOW ASSISTING PCPN PRODUCTION. MUCH OF THAT PCPN SHOULD PASS BY TO THE E AND N OF UPPER MI...BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO MENTION SCHC POPS OVER THE FAR E LATE. MEANWHILE...FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL SPREAD INTO WRN UPPER MI. INITIALLY...DEEP MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN IS LACKING...SO IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME BEFORE PCPN DEVELOPS. BEST POTENTIAL FOR PCPN SHOULD COME WITH THE ADDITION OF LOWER LEVEL FORCING FROM SFC-850MB TROF TRAILING WNW FROM SFC LOW WHICH SHOULD BE IN THE VCNTY OF CNTRL UPPER MI AT 12Z MON. HAVE THUS INTRODUCED CHC POPS OVER WRN UPPER LATE TONIGHT. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 421 AM EDT THU OCT 16 2014 MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE MEDIUM/LONG TERM WL FOCUS ON POPS AND WINDS ON FRI INTO SAT AS A STRONG DISTURBANCE SLIDES THRU THE UPR LKS AND INTERACTS WITH SLOW MOVING CLOSED LO RESPONSIBLE FOR THE RECENT INCLEMENT WX OVER THE E HALF OF UPR MI. AS THE DISTURBANCES PHASE...A DEEP LO PRES WL DVLP OVER SE CANADA...BRINGING A STRONG AND COLDER NW FLOW THAT WL RESULT IN SOME LK ENHANCED PCPN FOR A TIME ON FRI NGT. RIGHT NOW...IT APPEARS MOST OF THE PCPN WL FALL AS RA. FRI/FRI NGT...STRONG SHRTWV CROSSING THE NRN ROCKIES EARLY THIS MRNG IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE UPR LKS ON FRI AND MERGE WITH THE SLUGGIST CLOSED LO NOW OVER THE OH RIVER VALLEY THAT WL BE MOVING NEWD THRU SE ONTARIO AT THAT TIME. THE RESULT WL BE A DEEPENING SFC LO PRES NEAR JAMES BAY AND STRENGTHENING NNW WINDS/CAD IN THE UPR LKS ON FRI AFTN AND NGT. ALTHOUGH THERE WL BE LTL MSTR INFLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE SHRTWV MOVING IN FM THE W ON FRI THAT WL LIMIT THE INTENSITY OF THE ACCOMPANYING QVECTOR CNVGC...VIGOROUS NATURE OF THIS SHRTWV/PVA ACCOMPANIED BY 12HR H5 HGT FALLS UP 100M WL SUPPORT LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NRN CWA ON THE CYC SIDE OF SHRTWV TRACK AND WHERE MODELS SHOW MORE APPRECIABLE DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC/UPR DVGC. EXPECT THE LOWEST POPS OVER THE SCENTRAL WITH DOWNSLOPE W VEERING NW LLVL WIND COMPONENT. AS NNW H925 WINDS INCRSG UP TO 40-45 KTS LATE FRI/FRI NGT DRIVE H85 TEMPS DOWN TO -4 TO -6C ON FRI NGT IN THE PRESENCE OF SOME LINGERING DEEP MSTR ON THE CYC SIDE OF A REINFORCING SHRTWV DIGGING SSEWD THRU MN...EXPECT A PERIOD OF LK ENHANCED PCPN THAT MAY FEATURE SOME SN MIXING IN WITH THE RA AT LEAST OVER THE HIER TERRAIN OF THE NW HALF. WINDS WL LIKELY AT LEAST APRCH ADVY CRITERIA...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LK SUP SHORE WITH THE INCRSG INSTABILITY. THE LK PCPN MAY BEGIN TO DIMINISH TOWARD 12Z SAT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF HGT RISES/MID LVL DRYING/LOWERING SUBSIDENCE INVRN UNDER THE DNVA IN THE WAKE OF THE UPR TROF SHIFTING INTO THE ERN LKS. ONE OTHER CONCERN WL BE THE HI WAVES WHIPPED UP ON LK SUP BY THE STRENGTHENING WINDS ON FRI NGT. SINCE THE LK SUP WATER LVL HAS RISEN UP TO HALF A FOOT ABV NORMAL...THERE MAY BE SOME BEACH FLOODING AT THE MORE EXPOSED LOCATIONS. SAT...THE APRCH OF A SHRTWV RDG AND ACCOMPANYING SFC HI PRES WL BRING DIMINISHING WINDS AND VIGOROUS MID LVL DRYING THAT WL CAUSE LK EFFECT PCPN ON SAT MRNG TO END IN THE AFTN IN THE PRESENCE OF DIURNAL HEATING EVEN IF A GOOD DEAL OF SC LINGERS WITHIN THE LLVL THERMAL TROF THAT IS PROGGED TO HOLD IN PLACE UNDER SUBSIDENCE INVRN NEAR H875 WITHIN THE NLY FLOW E OF THE APRCHG RDG AXIS. SOME CLRG IS LIKELY TO ARRIVE OVER THE W BY LATE IN THE AFTN WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE SFC RDG AXIS. SAT NGT...WITH RDG AXIS PASSING OVHD AND PWAT FCST AS LO AS 0.25 INCH SUPPORTING THE CLRG OF ANY LINGERING LO CLDS...EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL WELL INTO THE 20S OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF EVEN IF SOME HI CLDS ARRIVE LATE IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SHRTWV DIGGING SEWD THRU SCENTRAL CANADA. SINCE LO CLDS WL LINGER LONGER OVER THE E...TEMPS THERE WL NOT FALL AS FAR. SUN INTO MON...NEXT SHRTWV DROPPING SEWD AND INTO THE UPR LKS/UPR MIDWEST BY 12Z MON WL BRING INCRSG CLDS ON SUN AND THE NEXT CHC OF SHOWERS SUN AFTN INTO MON MRNG. ONCE AGAIN...MSTR INFLOW INTO THIS DISTURBANCE WL BE LIMITED...BUT FAIRLY VIGOROUS DPVA/QVECTOR CNVGC WILL BRING AT LEAST SCT SHOWERS BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF HGT RISES/DNVA IN THE WAKE OF THE SHRTWV SLIPPING TO THE SE DIMINISH THE PCPN THREAT LATER ON MON. ALL THE PCPN ACCOMPANYING THIS DISTURBANCE WL BE IN THE FORM OF RA EXTENDED...ALTHOUGH SOME CLDS AND EVEN A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER ON MON NGT UNDER LLVL CYC FLOW/LLVL THERMAL TROF LEFT IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SHRTWV/SFC LO...BLDG UPR RDG OVER CENTRAL NAMERICA AND SFC HI PRES IN THE GREAT LKS WL BRING DRY WX TO UPR MI. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 744 AM EDT THU OCT 16 2014 ON THE NW EDGE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY... CONSIDERABLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO RESULT IN LIFR CONDITIONS AT KSAW. WITH WEAK WIND FIELDS TODAY AND THUS LITTLE ADVECTION OCCURRING...LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE KSAW. DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD HELP RAISE CIGS A LITTLE...TO IFR LATE MORNING AND THEN TO MVFR THIS AFTN. MAY SEE LIFR CONDITIONS REDEVELOP LATE TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...AT KIWD AND KCMX...THE MAIN ISSUE HAS BEEN GROUND FOG TRENDS EARLY THIS MORNING. SURPRISED BOTH TERMINALS HAVE RECENTLY BECOME VFR AFTER DEALING WITH FOG...BUT BELIEVE THERE STILL COULD BE SOME FOG OR STRATUS YET EARLY THIS MORNING. THERE IS A MASS OF LOW CLOUDS JUST E OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...AND AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT EASTERLY...THESE CLOUDS MAY IMPACT KCMX WITH MVFR AND POTENTIALLY IFR CIGS LATER THIS MORNING. LOW PRES MOVING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL LIKELY BRING IFR CONDITIONS TO KIWD/KCMX LATE TONIGHT. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 434 AM EDT THU OCT 16 2014 EXPECT LIGHT WINDS INTO EARLY FRI UNDER A RELATIVELY WEAK PRES GRADIENT. BUT THEN AS A PAIR OF UPPER DISTURBANCES COMBINE ON FRI... A DEEP LO PRES WILL DEVELOP IN SE CANADA AND BRING INCREASING NNW WINDS THAT INCREASE TO GALE FORCE/UP TO 40 KTS ON FRI AFTERNOON AND FRI NIGHT THAT IMPACT ALMOST ALL OF LAKE SUPERIOR INTO NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. ISSUED GALE WATCHES FOR ALL BUT FAR WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...WHERE THE WINDS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG. AS A HI PRES RIDGE APPROACHES FROM THE W ON SAT...THE STRONG WINDS WILL DIMINISH W-E. ALTHOUGH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE/SURFACE LO PRES WILL TRACK ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK...NO STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR LSZ248>251-267. GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR LSZ266. GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR LSZ263>265. GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR LSZ244-245. GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR LSZ242-243. LAKE MICHIGAN... GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR LMZ248-250. && $$ SHORT TERM...ROLFSON LONG TERM...KC AVIATION...ROLFSON MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
1035 AM EDT THU OCT 16 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A MOISTURE LADEN OCCLUDED FRONT AND ASSOCIATED RAINBAND WILL SHIFT SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD FROM NEW YORK ACROSS VERMONT TODAY. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL AMOUNT TO 1 TO 2 INCHES OF TOTAL RAINFALL BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH BRINGS A RETURN TO COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL COOL SUFFICIENTLY FOR HIGHER SUMMIT SNOW SHOWERS BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH A LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER PEAKS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 1018 AM EDT THURSDAY...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE TO CRNT FCST WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES IMPACTING MUCH OF OUR CWA. WATER VAPOR SHOWS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE FEED ACRS OUR THE NE CONUS...WITH WELL DEFINED DRY SLOT NOW PUSHING INTO CENTRAL NY. THIS WL TAKE ALL DAY AND MOST OF TONIGHT TO MOVE EAST OUR CWA...SO EXPECT OCCASIONAL RAIN HEAVY AT TIMES TO CONTINUE...WITH A SLOW WEST TO EAST DRYING TREND BY LATE THIS AFTN/EVENING. TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS WL BE HIGHLY TRRN DEPEND WITH OVER 2.0 LIKELY ACRS THE SE UPSLOPE SECTIONS OF THE GREEN MTNS FROM LUDLOW TO NORTHFIELD AND BTWN 0.75 AND 1.50 INCHES OVER THE EASTERN DACKS AND PARTS OF THE CPV...AND NEAR 1.0 FOR THE SLV/WESTERN DACKS. INITIALLY SOME SHADOWING WL OCCUR ACRS THE NEK ASSOCIATED WITH SE FLW...BUT GIVEN DEPTH OF MOISTURE AND AVAILABLE DYNAMICS WITH CLOSED SYSTEM...MANY LOCATIONS WL GET BTWN 0.75 AND 1.50" BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. RADAR/OBS SHOW INITIAL BAND OF RAIN ACRS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CPV...HAS PRODUCED HRLY RAINFALL RATES OF UP TO 1.0 PER HOUR...WITH PAWLET VT GETTING 0.92 INCHES BTWN 8 AND 9 AM THIS MORNING. THESE RATES MAY CAUSE MINOR LOW LYING AND POOR URBAN DRAINAGE FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IF FALLEN LEAVES CLOG THE STORM DRAINGES. OTHERWISE...GIVEN RECENT DRY SPELL WITH MANY LOCATIONS BTWN 2 AND 4 INCHES BELOW NORMAL...THIS IS A WELCOME RAINFALL. LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH THE CLOUDS/PRECIP...MAINLY 60S TO L70S. ITS BEEN NOTED THE 12Z RAOB SOUNDING FROM ALBANY THE PW VALUES WAS 1.80...WHICH IS 239% OF NORMAL AND 3 STD ABOVE NORMAL...PLENTY OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE. SPC MESOANALYSIS BASED ON RAP MODEL SHOWS PW PLUME OF 1.6-1.8" FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EXTENDING NNWWD ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND NEW YORK. THE FRONTAL RAINBAND WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN...WHILE GRADUALLY SHIFTING FROM NY/CHAMPLAIN VALLEY THIS MORNING INTO CENTRAL/ERN VERMONT LATER IN THE DAY. POPS NEAR 100 PERCENT. WILL SEE AREAS OF 1-1.5" RAINFALL BY EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH HIGHEST TOTALS ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS WITH SFC-900MB SELY UPSLOPE ENHANCING RAINFALL AMOUNTS A BIT. AT THE SAME TIME...THERE WILL BE SOME DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND ALONG THE NRN SLOPES OF THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE SOME LULLS IN THE PRECIPITATION CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS BREEZY AS RECENT DAYS...GENERALLY SELY AROUND 10 MPH. SOME LOCALIZED DOWNSLOPE FLOW IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE WRN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH ALONG THE IMMEDIATE WESTERN SLOPES. RELATIVELY STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER OWING TO RAINFALL WILL GENERALLY PRECLUDE ANY HIGHER WIND GUST POTENTIAL AND KEEP THE FOOTPRINT OF ANY STRONGER GUSTS RELATIVELY SMALL. && .SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 318 AM EDT THURSDAY... TONIGHT...SURFACE OCCLUDED FRONT SHIFTS SLOWLY NEWD ACROSS CENTRAL/NERN VT TONIGHT. WILL SEE STEADY RAINFALL GRADUALLY WORK ITS WAY OUT OF CENTRAL/ERN VT BY MIDNIGHT OR SO...WITH JUST SOME SPRINKLES/ISOLD SHOWERS IN THE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS NRN NY AND WRN VT. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-2" STILL LOOK ON TRACK. WITH DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS AND RIVERS RUNNING NEAR BASE LEVELS...ONLY LOOKING FOR MINOR FIELD AND STREET FLOODING IN FOCUSED AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN. LEAVES CAN SOMETIMES CLOG STORM DRAINS ADDING TO A BIT OF STREET FLOODING...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT REMAIN SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE MID-OCTOBER AVERAGES WITH READINGS MOSTLY IN THE MID-UPR 50S (15-20 DEG ABOVE NORMAL). FRIDAY...OCCLUSION SHIFTS INTO MAINE WITH MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT AND BROAD SWLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. MAY SEE A FEW ISOLD RAIN SHOWERS REACHING NRN NY FROM LAKE ONTARIO...BUT OTHERWISE LOOKING INTERVALS OF CLOUDS/SUN. STILL +7 TO +8C AT 850MB IN SW FLOW REGIME AND TEMPERATURES - WHILE NOT AS WARM AS RECENT DAYS - WILL STILL REACH THE MID-UPR 60S FOR MOST VALLEY SECTIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE A BIT GUSTY AT TIMES WITH SW GRADIENT FLOW...GENERALLY 10-15 MPH WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH. FRIDAY NIGHT...DEEP-LAYER SWLY FLOW REMAINS AND STRENGTHENS IN ADVANCE OF A DIGGING TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/SERN ONTARIO. PROBABLY LOOKING AT A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR LAKE CHAMPLAIN AS P-GRADIENT INCREASES. WELL-MIXED PBL SHOULD KEEP THINGS FAIRLY MILD WITH LOWS IN THE UPR 40S TO MID 50S (WARMEST IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY). SHOULD SEE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS VERMONT...BUT AN INCREASE TO MOSTLY CLOUDY/CLOUDY CONDITIONS IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING MID-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS NRN NY. MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP DURING THE PRE-DAWN HRS ACROSS OUR NY COUNTIES AS WELL...AND WILL INDICATE 20-40 POPS FOR WESTERN ZONES. FOR SATURDAY...IT APPEARS THAT A RATHER VIGOROUS REINFORCING MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT EWD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS ACROSS THE VALLEYS OF S-CENTRAL VERMONT...UP TO 0.25" ACROSS THE NRN MOUNTAINS. GIVEN CONSISTENCY IN NWP GUIDANCE SUITE, WILL CARRY 70-80 POPS ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE VALLEYS OF CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH EARLY AFTERNOON MAXES OF LOW-MID 60S ACROSS VERMONT...BUT LIKELY REMAINING IN THE MID-UPR 50S WITH EARLIER FRONTAL WIND SHIFT AND LOW-LEVEL CAA OFFSETTING DIURNAL TRENDS DURING THE DAY. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 318 AM EDT THURSDAY...A BRUTAL CHANGE WITH TEMPERATURES SOME 20-25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THIS PAST TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TO PERHAPS 5+ DEGS BLO NORMAL BY SUNDAY WITH BLUSTERY COLD RAIN SHOWERS IN VLYS BUT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS PSBL. CORE OF THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NORTHEAST WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT TRACKING THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY SATURDAY AFTN-SATURDAY NIGHT AND THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINING ACRS FA THRU SUNDAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS WITH P-TYPE LIKELY CHANGING TO SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AS 925-850MB TEMPS CRASH BELOW 0C FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. MONDAY...BROAD NW CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES WITH SOME WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FOR MONDAY...THUS RELATIVELY DRY BUT AOB SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. TUESDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND SFC WAVE EVENTUALLY RESULTING INTO ANOTHER CLOSED UPPER LOW WITH SOME COASTAL DEVELOPMENT. ATTM...MAIN SHIELD OF PCPN SHOULD REMAIN ESE OF FA BUT TROF AXIS ACROSS CWA THUS CANT RULE OUT SOME INSTABILTY VLY SHRA AND PERHAPS MTN SHSN. THEREAFTER...HIGH PRESSURE FROM QUEBEC DOWN THROUGH GREAT LAKES BUILD INTO FA BUT REMAINING ON THE SEASONABLY COOL SIDE FOR WED. IN REGARDS TO TEMPS...MORE FALL-LIKE TEMPS RETURN WITH HIGHS SUN/MON/TUE ONLY IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S AND LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S. && .AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/RAIN HAS MOVED INTO FA AS ADVERTISED WITH CONTINUED PLUME OF SHOWERS OFFSHORE OF NC COAST HEADED TOWARD ERN VT/NEW ENGLAND. GRADUAL WEST TO EAST MOVEMENT WITH SHRA ENDING IN NY BY ERLY-MID AFTN...CHMPL VLY MID- LATE AFTN AND CT RVR VLY POSSIBLY AS LATE AS 06Z FRI. MDL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN WAY TOO PESSIMISTIC WITH IFR CIGS THE LAST FEW DAYS AND BASED ON CURRENT AND UPSTREAM OBS HAVE BROUGHT VFR LOWERING TO MVFR WITH SCT IFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER SHRA ACTIVITY AND THEN PERHAPS SCT IFR OVERNIGHT AT KMPV. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THRU THE PERIOD. OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... DRYING ON FRIDAY WITH MAINLY VFR CONDS. ANOTHER FRNT WL PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS SATURDAY...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY...ESPECIALLY SAT AFTN/EVENING. A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WL OCCUR SAT NIGHT BEHIND THIS FRNT WITH A FEW MTN SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT SLK. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BANACOS NEAR TERM...BANACOS/TABER SHORT TERM...BANACOS LONG TERM...SLW AVIATION...SLW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
727 AM EDT THU OCT 16 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A MOISTURE LADEN OCCLUDED FRONT AND ASSOCIATED RAINBAND WILL SHIFT SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD FROM NEW YORK ACROSS VERMONT TODAY. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL AMOUNT TO 1 TO 2 INCHES OF TOTAL RAINFALL BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH BRINGS A RETURN TO COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL COOL SUFFICIENTLY FOR HIGHER SUMMIT SNOW SHOWERS BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH A LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER PEAKS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 318 AM EDT THURSDAY...SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOW AND LEADING OCCLUDED FRONTAL BOUNDARY FINALLY MAKING THEIR WAY NEWD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS MORNING. LOOKING AT OVERCAST CONDITIONS AND VERY MILD/MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE GIVEN THE PROLONGED FETCH OF SOUTHERLY FLOW DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS (INCLUDING RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES OF 79F AND 80F ON 10/14 AND 10/15, RESPECTIVELY). DAYTIME TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 70S TODAY AREAWIDE. SPC MESOANALYSIS BASED ON RAP MODEL SHOWS PW PLUME OF 1.6-1.8" FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EXTENDING NNWWD ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND NEW YORK. THE FRONTAL RAINBAND WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN...WHILE GRADUALLY SHIFTING FROM NY/CHAMPLAIN VALLEY THIS MORNING INTO CENTRAL/ERN VERMONT LATER IN THE DAY. POPS NEAR 100 PERCENT. WILL SEE AREAS OF 1-1.5" RAINFALL BY EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH HIGHEST TOTALS ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS WITH SFC-900MB SELY UPSLOPE ENHANCING RAINFALL AMOUNTS A BIT. AT THE SAME TIME...THERE WILL BE SOME DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND ALONG THE NRN SLOPES OF THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE SOME LULLS IN THE PRECIPITATION CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS BREEZY AS RECENT DAYS...GENERALLY SELY AROUND 10 MPH. SOME LOCALIZED DOWNSLOPE FLOW IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE WRN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH ALONG THE IMMEDIATE WESTERN SLOPES. RELATIVELY STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER OWING TO RAINFALL WILL GENERALLY PRECLUDE ANY HIGHER WIND GUST POTENTIAL AND KEEP THE FOOTPRINT OF ANY STRONGER GUSTS RELATIVELY SMALL. && .SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 318 AM EDT THURSDAY... TONIGHT...SURFACE OCCLUDED FRONT SHIFTS SLOWLY NEWD ACROSS CENTRAL/NERN VT TONIGHT. WILL SEE STEADY RAINFALL GRADUALLY WORK ITS WAY OUT OF CENTRAL/ERN VT BY MIDNIGHT OR SO...WITH JUST SOME SPRINKLES/ISOLD SHOWERS IN THE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS NRN NY AND WRN VT. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-2" STILL LOOK ON TRACK. WITH DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS AND RIVERS RUNNING NEAR BASE LEVELS...ONLY LOOKING FOR MINOR FIELD AND STREET FLOODING IN FOCUSED AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN. LEAVES CAN SOMETIMES CLOG STORM DRAINS ADDING TO A BIT OF STREET FLOODING...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT REMAIN SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE MID-OCTOBER AVERAGES WITH READINGS MOSTLY IN THE MID-UPR 50S (15-20 DEG ABOVE NORMAL). FRIDAY...OCCLUSION SHIFTS INTO MAINE WITH MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT AND BROAD SWLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. MAY SEE A FEW ISOLD RAIN SHOWERS REACHING NRN NY FROM LAKE ONTARIO...BUT OTHERWISE LOOKING INTERVALS OF CLOUDS/SUN. STILL +7 TO +8C AT 850MB IN SW FLOW REGIME AND TEMPERATURES - WHILE NOT AS WARM AS RECENT DAYS - WILL STILL REACH THE MID-UPR 60S FOR MOST VALLEY SECTIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE A BIT GUSTY AT TIMES WITH SW GRADIENT FLOW...GENERALLY 10-15 MPH WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH. FRIDAY NIGHT...DEEP-LAYER SWLY FLOW REMAINS AND STRENGTHENS IN ADVANCE OF A DIGGING TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/SERN ONTARIO. PROBABLY LOOKING AT A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR LAKE CHAMPLAIN AS P-GRADIENT INCREASES. WELL-MIXED PBL SHOULD KEEP THINGS FAIRLY MILD WITH LOWS IN THE UPR 40S TO MID 50S (WARMEST IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY). SHOULD SEE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS VERMONT...BUT AN INCREASE TO MOSTLY CLOUDY/CLOUDY CONDITIONS IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING MID-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS NRN NY. MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP DURING THE PRE-DAWN HRS ACROSS OUR NY COUNTIES AS WELL...AND WILL INDICATE 20-40 POPS FOR WESTERN ZONES. FOR SATURDAY...IT APPEARS THAT A RATHER VIGOROUS REINFORCING MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT EWD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS ACROSS THE VALLEYS OF S-CENTRAL VERMONT...UP TO 0.25" ACROSS THE NRN MOUNTAINS. GIVEN CONSISTENCY IN NWP GUIDANCE SUITE, WILL CARRY 70-80 POPS ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE VALLEYS OF CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH EARLY AFTERNOON MAXES OF LOW-MID 60S ACROSS VERMONT...BUT LIKELY REMAINING IN THE MID-UPR 50S WITH EARLIER FRONTAL WIND SHIFT AND LOW-LEVEL CAA OFFSETTING DIURNAL TRENDS DURING THE DAY. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 318 AM EDT THURSDAY...A BRUTAL CHANGE WITH TEMPERATURES SOME 20-25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THIS PAST TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TO PERHAPS 5+ DEGS BLO NORMAL BY SUNDAY WITH BLUSTERY COLD RAIN SHOWERS IN VLYS BUT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS PSBL. CORE OF THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NORTHEAST WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT TRACKING THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY SATURDAY AFTN-SATURDAY NIGHT AND THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINING ACRS FA THRU SUNDAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS WITH P-TYPE LIKELY CHANGING TO SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AS 925-850MB TEMPS CRASH BELOW 0C FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. MONDAY...BROAD NW CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES WITH SOME WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FOR MONDAY...THUS RELATIVELY DRY BUT AOB SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. TUESDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND SFC WAVE EVENTUALLY RESULTING INTO ANOTHER CLOSED UPPER LOW WITH SOME COASTAL DEVELOPMENT. ATTM...MAIN SHIELD OF PCPN SHOULD REMAIN ESE OF FA BUT TROF AXIS ACROSS CWA THUS CANT RULE OUT SOME INSTABILTY VLY SHRA AND PERHAPS MTN SHSN. THEREAFTER...HIGH PRESSURE FROM QUEBEC DOWN THROUGH GREAT LAKES BUILD INTO FA BUT REMAINING ON THE SEASONABLY COOL SIDE FOR WED. IN REGARDS TO TEMPS...MORE FALL-LIKE TEMPS RETURN WITH HIGHS SUN/MON/TUE ONLY IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S AND LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/RAIN HAS MOVED INTO FA AS ADVERTISED WITH CONTINUED PLUME OF SHOWERS OFFSHORE OF NC COAST HEADED TOWARD ERN VT/NEW ENGLAND. GRADUAL WEST TO EAST MOVEMENT WITH SHRA ENDING IN NY BY ERLY-MID AFTN...CHMPL VLY MID- LATE AFTN AND CT RVR VLY POSSIBLY AS LATE AS 06Z FRI. MDL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN WAY TOO PESSIMISTIC WITH IFR CIGS THE LAST FEW DAYS AND BASED ON CURRENT AND UPSTREAM OBS HAVE BROUGHT VFR LOWERING TO MVFR WITH SCT IFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER SHRA ACTIVITY AND THEN PERHAPS SCT IFR OVERNIGHT AT KMPV. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THRU THE PERIOD. OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... DRYING ON FRIDAY WITH MAINLY VFR CONDS. ANOTHER FRNT WL PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS SATURDAY...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY...ESPECIALLY SAT AFTN/EVENING. A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WL OCCUR SAT NIGHT BEHIND THIS FRNT WITH A FEW MTN SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT SLK. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BANACOS NEAR TERM...BANACOS SHORT TERM...BANACOS LONG TERM...SLW AVIATION...SLW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
715 AM EDT THU OCT 16 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A MOISTURE LADEN OCCLUDED FRONT AND ASSOCIATED RAINBAND WILL SHIFT SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD FROM NEW YORK ACROSS VERMONT TODAY. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL AMOUNT TO 1 TO 2 INCHES OF TOTAL RAINFALL BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH BRINGS A RETURN TO COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL COOL SUFFICIENTLY FOR HIGHER SUMMIT SNOW SHOWERS BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH A LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER PEAKS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 318 AM EDT THURSDAY...SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOW AND LEADING OCCLUDED FRONTAL BOUNDARY FINALLY MAKING THEIR WAY NEWD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS MORNING. LOOKING AT OVERCAST CONDITIONS AND VERY MILD/MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE GIVEN THE PROLONGED FETCH OF SOUTHERLY FLOW DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS (INCLUDING RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES OF 79F AND 80F ON 10/14 AND 10/15, RESPECTIVELY). DAYTIME TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 70S TODAY AREAWIDE. SPC MESOANALYSIS BASED ON RAP MODEL SHOWS PW PLUME OF 1.6-1.8" FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EXTENDING NNWWD ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND NEW YORK. THE FRONTAL RAINBAND WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN...WHILE GRADUALLY SHIFTING FROM NY/CHAMPLAIN VALLEY THIS MORNING INTO CENTRAL/ERN VERMONT LATER IN THE DAY. POPS NEAR 100 PERCENT. WILL SEE AREAS OF 1-1.5" RAINFALL BY EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH HIGHEST TOTALS ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS WITH SFC-900MB SELY UPSLOPE ENHANCING RAINFALL AMOUNTS A BIT. AT THE SAME TIME...THERE WILL BE SOME DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND ALONG THE NRN SLOPES OF THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE SOME LULLS IN THE PRECIPITATION CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS BREEZY AS RECENT DAYS...GENERALLY SELY AROUND 10 MPH. SOME LOCALIZED DOWNSLOPE FLOW IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE WRN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH ALONG THE IMMEDIATE WESTERN SLOPES. RELATIVELY STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER OWING TO RAINFALL WILL GENERALLY PRECLUDE ANY HIGHER WIND GUST POTENTIAL AND KEEP THE FOOTPRINT OF ANY STRONGER GUSTS RELATIVELY SMALL. && .SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 318 AM EDT THURSDAY... TONIGHT...SURFACE OCCLUDED FRONT SHIFTS SLOWLY NEWD ACROSS CENTRAL/NERN VT TONIGHT. WILL SEE STEADY RAINFALL GRADUALLY WORK ITS WAY OUT OF CENTRAL/ERN VT BY MIDNIGHT OR SO...WITH JUST SOME SPRINKLES/ISOLD SHOWERS IN THE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS NRN NY AND WRN VT. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-2" STILL LOOK ON TRACK. WITH DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS AND RIVERS RUNNING NEAR BASE LEVELS...ONLY LOOKING FOR MINOR FIELD AND STREET FLOODING IN FOCUSED AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN. LEAVES CAN SOMETIMES CLOG STORM DRAINS ADDING TO A BIT OF STREET FLOODING...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT REMAIN SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE MID-OCTOBER AVERAGES WITH READINGS MOSTLY IN THE MID-UPR 50S (15-20 DEG ABOVE NORMAL). FRIDAY...OCCLUSION SHIFTS INTO MAINE WITH MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT AND BROAD SWLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. MAY SEE A FEW ISOLD RAIN SHOWERS REACHING NRN NY FROM LAKE ONTARIO...BUT OTHERWISE LOOKING INTERVALS OF CLOUDS/SUN. STILL +7 TO +8C AT 850MB IN SW FLOW REGIME AND TEMPERATURES - WHILE NOT AS WARM AS RECENT DAYS - WILL STILL REACH THE MID-UPR 60S FOR MOST VALLEY SECTIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE A BIT GUSTY AT TIMES WITH SW GRADIENT FLOW...GENERALLY 10-15 MPH WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH. FRIDAY NIGHT...DEEP-LAYER SWLY FLOW REMAINS AND STRENGTHENS IN ADVANCE OF A DIGGING TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/SERN ONTARIO. PROBABLY LOOKING AT A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR LAKE CHAMPLAIN AS P-GRADIENT INCREASES. WELL-MIXED PBL SHOULD KEEP THINGS FAIRLY MILD WITH LOWS IN THE UPR 40S TO MID 50S (WARMEST IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY). SHOULD SEE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS VERMONT...BUT AN INCREASE TO MOSTLY CLOUDY/CLOUDY CONDITIONS IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING MID-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS NRN NY. MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP DURING THE PRE-DAWN HRS ACROSS OUR NY COUNTIES AS WELL...AND WILL INDICATE 20-40 POPS FOR WESTERN ZONES. FOR SATURDAY...IT APPEARS THAT A RATHER VIGOROUS REINFORCING MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT EWD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS ACROSS THE VALLEYS OF S-CENTRAL VERMONT...UP TO 0.25" ACROSS THE NRN MOUNTAINS. GIVEN CONSISTENCY IN NWP GUIDANCE SUITE, WILL CARRY 70-80 POPS ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE VALLEYS OF CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH EARLY AFTERNOON MAXES OF LOW-MID 60S ACROSS VERMONT...BUT LIKELY REMAINING IN THE MID-UPR 50S WITH EARLIER FRONTAL WIND SHIFT AND LOW-LEVEL CAA OFFSETTING DIURNAL TRENDS DURING THE DAY. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 318 AM EDT THURSDAY...A BRUTAL CHANGE WITH TEMPERATURES SOME 20-25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THIS PAST TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TO PERHAPS 5+ DEGS BLO NORMAL BY SUNDAY WITH BLUSTERY COLD RAIN SHOWERS IN VLYS BUT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS PSBL. CORE OF THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NORTHEAST WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT TRACKING THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY SATURDAY AFTN-SATURDAY NIGHT AND THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINING ACRS FA THRU SUNDAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS WITH P-TYPE LIKELY CHANGING TO SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AS 925-850MB TEMPS CRASH BELOW 0C FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. MONDAY...BROAD NW CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES WITH SOME WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FOR MONDAY...THUS RELATIVELY DRY BUT AOB SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. TUESDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND SFC WAVE EVENTUALLY RESULTING INTO ANOTHER CLOSED UPPER LOW WITH SOME COASTAL DEVELOPMENT. ATTM...MAIN SHIELD OF PCPN SHOULD REMAIN ESE OF FA BUT TROF AXIS ACROSS CWA THUS CANT RULE OUT SOME INSTABILTY VLY SHRA AND PERHAPS MTN SHSN. THEREAFTER...HIGH PRESSURE FROM QUEBEC DOWN THROUGH GREAT LAKES BUILD INTO FA BUT REMAINING ON THE SEASONABLY COOL SIDE FOR WED. IN REGARDS TO TEMPS...MORE FALL-LIKE TEMPS RETURN WITH HIGHS SUN/MON/TUE ONLY IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S AND LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S. && .AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...SPOTTY SHRA ACTVTY ACROSS NRN NY BUT A MORE ORGANZIED PLUME OF +SHRA MVG NNE ACROSS LOWER HUDSON VLY FOR CHAMPL VLY AND NRN NY THRU 12Z. SHORTLY THEREAFTER...ANOTHER PLUME LIKELY TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS CHAMPLAIN VLY AND VT THRU EVENING WITH NY DRYING OUT. MDL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN WAY TOO PESSIMISTIC WITH IFR CIGS THE LAST FEW DAYS AND BASED ON CURRENT AND UPSTREAM OBS HAVE BROUGHT VFR LOWERING TO MVFR WITH SCT IFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER SHRA ACTIVITY AND THEN PERHAPS MORE CONFIDENT TNGT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THRU THE PERIOD. OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... HEAVIER RAIN BAND SHOULD HAVE EXITED BY 06Z FRIDAY...SOME LEFTOVER BL MOISTURE MAY PRODUCE SOME LOW STRATUS CLOUDS AT MPV/SLK WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS POSSIBLE. ANOTHER FRNT WL PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS SATURDAY...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY...ESPECIALLY SAT AFTN/EVENING. A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WL OCCUR SAT NIGHT BEHIND THIS FRNT WITH A FEW MTN SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT SLK. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BANACOS NEAR TERM...BANACOS SHORT TERM...BANACOS LONG TERM...SLW AVIATION...TABER/SLW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
944 AM EDT THU OCT 16 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS OVER LAKE ERIE WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES ON SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 940 AM EDT THURSDAY... REGIONAL RADARS ARE DEPICTING A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH KY/WV. THE LEADING EDGE IS JUST STARTING TO REACH THE FAR WESTERN PARTS OF OUR REGION BETWEEN ROUGHLY TAZEWELL AND RICHLANDS VA. PREVAILING FLOW AROUND THE UPPER LOW JUST ADVECT THIS ACTIVITY INTO MAINLY THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY ACROSS A GREATER SWATH OF THE REGION THAN PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED...SPECIFICALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA. HAVE ALSO EXTENDED THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FARTHER EAST THIS MORNING BASED UPON SOME LIGHT RETURNS ON KFCX RADAR IN THIS REGION AND BOTH HRRR AND RNK WRK ARW MODEL PROJECTIONS THE NEXT FEW HOURS. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AT THIS TIME. AS OF 430 AM EDT THURSDAY... DEEP UPPER LOW OVER OHIO DRIFTS NORTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. TROF AXIS WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE TONIGHT. UNTIL THEN...THREE SHORT WAVES CROSS THE AREA. MODELS HAVE ONE OF THESE WAVES CROSSING THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST AREAS WILL STILL BE UNDER THE COLD CORE OF THE UPPER LOW. WITH DAYTIME HEATING...LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS. 850 MB WINDS FROM THE WEST AT 30-35 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. SHUD BE ENOUGH MIXING FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. WATER VAPOR LOOP AND MODELS HAD EXTENSIVE AREA OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THE UPPER LOW. THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TODAY AND BY THIS EVENING...MOISTURE WILL BE CONFINED TO LOW LEVELS IN THE WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA. BY 00Z/8PM...SURFACE THROUGH 850 MB WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST. THEN SURFACE RIDGING FROM HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF COAST WILL BACK WINDS. THIS WILL END THE MUCH OF THE UPSLOPE...EVEN IN THE FAR WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA. HAVE TRIMMED BACK CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AFTER MIDNIGHT. STATED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY. EXPECTING ENOUGH CLEARING IN ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHWEST TONIGHT FOR SOME DECENT RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS. WENT LOWER THAN GUIDANCE FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 400 AM EDT THURSDAY... AT THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY BE LIFTING OUT OF THE REGION...BUT THE PARENT UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL ALLOW THE UPPER LOW TO DUMBBELL BACK AROUND INTO THE REGION AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST OUT OF ALBERTA AND ANOTHER SHORT WAVE...TRACKING OVER AN UPPER RIDGE IN THE WESTERN STATES...PHASES WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE. THIS WILL SEND AN ALBERTA CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM INTO THE REGION FOR SAT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. FRI HOWEVER...SHOULD BE ONE OF THE BEST DAYS IN THE LAST WEEK OR SO WITH CONSIDERABLE AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE AND MILD TEMPS WITH WEST SFC FLOW AND NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. STRONG DYNAMICS ARE INDICATED WITH THE APPROACHING SHORT WAVE WITH STRONG PVA SAT/SAT EVENING...BUT MOISTURE IS LIMITED. SFC FLOW IS WEST AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...WHICH WILL FURTHER LIMIT MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE REGION...AND PRODUCE DOWNSLOPING/DRYING EAST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT -SHRA WILL MOST DEFINITELY DEVELOP WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT LATE SATURDAY/SATURDAY EVENING...WITH PERHAPS A FEW SPRINKLES REACHING THE BLUE RIDGE AS THE UPPER SHORT WAVE TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT TOWARD 06Z SUN AND ROTATES THROUGH THE REGION. FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE CHC RANGE...BUT COULD SEE SOME LOW LIKELYS FROM WESTERN GREENBRIER INTO NW SUMMERS SAT EVENING. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL BE MILDER WITH WEST FLOW...BUT CONSIDERABLE MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL INHIBIT HEATING WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND ESPECIALLY EASTERN WV/SW VA. AS WE MOVE INTO SAT NIGHT AND THE SHORT WAVE TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT AND ROTATES THROUGH THE PARENT TROUGH...A NEAR WINTERLIKE PATTERN IS EVIDENT...AT LEAST FOR ABOUT 6 HOURS INTO SUN MORNING. DECENT 15-20KT UPSLOPE COMPONENT INDICATED AND 850MB TEMPS DROP INTO THE -2C RANGE WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT TOWARD 12Z SUN. DO FEEL THAT THE UPSLOPE COMPONENT IS SUFFICIENT ENOUGH WITH THE INDICATED 850MB TEMPS AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...MAINLY ABOVE 3500 FT...TO SUPPORT OUR FIRST -SHSN OF THE SEASON. THIS WOULD MAINLY AFFECT WESTERN GREENBRIER NORTHWARD...POSSIBLY EXTREME NW SUMMERS. SFC TEMPS WILL LIKELY REMAIN AOA FREEZING EXCEPT AT THE VERY HIGHEST ELEVATIONS...SO NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED AT ALL. ANY -SHSN SHOULD BE ENDING QUICKLY AFT 12Z SUN AS THE UPSLOPE COMPONENT BECOMES LESS FAVORABLE AND THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT. TEMPERATURES SUN WILL BE COOLER...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND A FEW 40S IN WESTERN GREENBRIER WHERE UPSLOPE CLOUDS COULD LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH FAIRLY QUICKLY...HOWEVER...AS THE DAY PROGRESSES WITH THE UPPER FLOW QUICKLY RESPONDING TO THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 430 AM EDT THURSDAY... PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH A SERIES OF NW FLOW SHORT WAVES CONTINUING TO BE THE MAIN WEATHER MAKER FOR THE REGION. THE MAIN CONCERN OF SIGNIFICANCE WILL BE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHEN SOME FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE EARLY SUN. HOWEVER...THE WIND MAY BE TOO STRONG YET TO ALLOW FOR ANY WIDESPREAD FREEZE...WHICH HAS YET TO OCCUR SO FAR THIS FALL. THIS WOULD BE THE LAST CHANCE FOR A FREEZE FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH IS RAPIDLY APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE MONDAY...WHICH APPEARS SIMILAR TO THE SAT SYSTEM...ALBEIT LESS DYNAMIC AND OVERALL FURTHER NORTH. THIS SHOULD BE FOLLOWED BY SEVERAL DAYS OF QUIET WEATHER ONCE AGAIN WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR FREEZE/FROST COMING BEHIND THIS SYSTEM EARLY THU. && .AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 735 AM EDT THURSDAY... IFR TO MVFR CLOUDS HAVE EXPANDED NORTH ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND WILL BE SPREADING INTO KBCB BEFORE 14Z/10AM. EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...BREAKS IN THE HIGH CLOUDS RESULTED IN PATCHY MVFR TO IFR FOG FORMATION. EXPECT NO IMPACT FROM FOG AT KROA/KLYH AND KDAN. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WAS APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. MORE SHOWERS WILL POP UP BY MID TO LATE MORNING WITH SOME DAYTIME HEATING...BUT AS FLOW BECOMES MORE W AND NW...DOWNSLOPE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE SHOULD KEEP KDAN/KLYH OUT OF THE SHRA. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ANYWHERE FROM KBCB WEST INTO SE WEST VIRGINIA...MAINLY BETWEEN 15Z/11AM AND 21Z/5PM. AFTER SUNSET...CLOUDS WILL CLEAR EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. MVFR CEILINGS WILL HOLD IN MUCH OF THE NIGHT IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...INCLUDING KBLF AND KLWB. EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION... BY FRIDAY...THE INITIAL PIECE OF THE 5H TROUGH WILL LIFT BACK NORTH ALLOWING FOR A DRIER ZONAL FLOW TO BRIEFLY DEVELOP WHICH WILL BRING WIDESPREAD VFR TO END THE WEEK. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT LACKING MOISTURE BUT ENOUGH TO LIKELY WRING OUT SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCED MVFR LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS SE WEST VIRGINIA WHERE A FEW SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME OF THIS CLOUD COVER MAY SPILL INTO KBCB/KROA GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE NW FLOW WITH LESS CLOUDS TO THE EAST PER DOWNSLOPE DRYING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH VFR EXPECTED. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AMS NEAR TERM...AMS/DS SHORT TERM...RAB LONG TERM...PC/RAB AVIATION...AMS/JH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
242 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2014 .DISCUSSION... 1029 AM CDT CONTINUED TO SLOW THE CLEARING TREND WITH THE STRATUS DECK OVERHEAD THIS MORNING. THERE ARE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS NOTED ON LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY...BUT THOSE QUICKLY FILL BACK IN WHILE LOW CEILINGS OVER WEST AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS ARE NOT REALLY MOVING. SO HAVE SLOWED THE CLEARING TREND FOR THESE MORE TOWARDS THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON TIME FRAME AS THIS WESTERN EDGE ERODES AND SHIFTS EAST...WITH THE EASTERN AREAS NOT LIKELY OBSERVING CLEAR SKIES UNTIL EARLY THIS EVENING. REMOVED POPS THIS MORNING BUT DID MAKE MENTION OF PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE MAINLY FOR THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA...WITH ONGOING DRIZZLE LIKELY PERSISTING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS WEAK ASCENT CONTINUES WITHIN THE OBSERVED SHALLOW MOIST LAYER. RODRIGUEZ //PREV DISCUSSION... 340 AM CDT EARLY MORNING GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS OUR OLD UPPER SPINNING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION OVER WISCONSIN AND ILLINOIS. SHEARED OUT SHORT WAVE ENERGY/VORTICITY CHANNEL RUNNING NORTH-SOUTH CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE WITHIN THE MOIST LOW-MID LEVEL ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION... THOUGH THIS LIGHT/SPOTTY PRECIP SHOULD MOVE OFF TO THE EAST THIS MORNING WITH THE CONTINUED EASTWARD DRIFT OF THE UPPER TROUGH. CLEARING LINE OVER FAR WESTERN IL/WI EARLY THIS MORNING WILL ALSO MOVE SLOWLY EAST...WITH LOW CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO ERODE OVER NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS DURING THE MORNING AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NORTHERN IL BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH SUBSIDENCE IN REGION OF RISING HEIGHTS AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE UPPER RIDGE WHICH MOVES INTO THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. GRADIENT IN CLOUD COVERAGE WILL MAKE FOR A CONTRAST IN TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CWA TODAY...WITH WESTERN AREAS WARMING INTO THE MID 60S WITH CONSIDERABLE SUN WHILE EASTERN AREAS THAT ARE LAST TO CLEAR TOP OUT AROUND 60. ATTENTION THEN TURNS QUICKLY TO ANOTHER STRONG SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THIS MORNING. THIS WAVE IS ALSO PROGGED CLOSE OFF IN THE MID-LEVELS AS IT TRACKS EAST ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER TODAY...BEFORE DIGGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AND CARVING OUT A LARGE LONG-WAVE TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA AS THIS SYSTEM COMBINES WITH AND NEARLY FUJI-WARAS WITH OLD CLOSED LOW TO OUR EAST. SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE DAKOTAS IN RESPONSE TO THIS SECOND WAVE WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH A PACIFIC COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA VERY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE AIR MASS BEHIND THIS FRONT IS NOT SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER THAN THE ONE CURRENTLY OVER THE MIDWEST...THUS TEMPS FRIDAY EXPECTED TO AGAIN BE IN THE LOW-MID 60S WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS NEAR 30 MPH. THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TOWARD EVENING...WITH A SECONDARY PUSH OF COOLER AIR AS SURFACE WINDS SHIFT NORTHWEST FRIDAY EVENING. WHILE A FEW SPRINKLES CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THIS SECONDARY FRONT FRIDAY EVENING...THE BEST ORGANIZED FORCING FOR DEEPER LIFT AND MORE ORGANIZED PRECIP PRODUCTION WILL REMAIN MAINLY NORTH/EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE STRONG SHORT WAVE AND EVOLVING LONG-WAVE TROUGH AXIS ARE OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING...THOUGH GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING ANOTHER QUICK MOVING LOWER AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY. WHILE THIS MAY KEEP CLOUD COVER ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...THE GREATEST THREAT OF SHOWERS AGAIN REMAINS OVER THE LAKE AND ACROSS AREAS EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE CWA. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE BEHIND FRIDAY EVENINGS SECONDARY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS BACK IN THE LOW-MID 50S SATURDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY TO OUR EAST...SETTING THE STAGE FOR CLEARING SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND COLD OVERNIGHT TEMPS. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY DROP TO AROUND THE FREEZING MARK ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST IL AWAY FROM THE CHICAGO HEAT ISLAND BY SUNDAY MORNING. A GOOD FROST IS LIKELY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING CONDITIONS IN SOME SPOTS. THE SURFACE HIGH THEN MOVES EAST DURING THE DAY AS UPPER FLOW PATTERN REMAINS VERY PROGRESSIVE...WITH WINDS SHIFTING SOUTH BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT DIGGING SHORT WAVE WHICH IS PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ONCE AGAIN DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING AND PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS LIMITED...THOUGH STRONGER FORCING IS A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH WITH THIS SYSTEM THAN THOSE EARLIER IN THE WEEKEND. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LAKES BY MONDAY EVENING WITH THE COLD FRONT CLEARING THE CWA BY MONDAY NIGHT. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEPICT A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF NORTH AMERICA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS OUR MONDAY SYSTEM CLOSES OFF OVER THE EAST COAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS SLOWLY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DURING THIS TIME... WITH A PERIOD OF QUIET/DRY WEATHER THROUGH MID-WEEK. NORTHEAST-EAST LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH MAY LIMIT OUR WARMING BENEATH THE UPPER RIDGE...THOUGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AT LEAST RETURN TO LATE OCTOBER NORMALS OR A LITTLE BETTER. RATZER && .AVIATION... //ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z... * IFR/LOWER MVFR CIGS REST OF TODAY...AND CIG TRENDS OVERNIGHT. BMD //DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z... LOW CLOUD COVER...MAINLY IFR...PERSISTS ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA...HOWEVER A FEW AREAS HAVE STARTED TO SHOW SIGNS THAT THE DECK IS TRYING TO LIFT TO LOWER END MVFR. THE STRATUS HAS SLOWLY BEEN ERODING FROM THE WEST AND IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR RFD BY MID TO LATE THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE CHICAGO TERMINALS BY SUNSET WHICH MAY RESULT IN CLOUD COVER LINGERING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GUIDANCE IS MIXED ON WHETHER IT WILL CLEAR TO VFR OR DROP BACK DOWN TO IFR OVERNIGHT AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW BUT LEANING TOWARDS THE LATTER SOLUTION. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND SHOULD HELP SCOUR OUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THEREAFTER ON FRIDAY...AND WNW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY WITH GUSTS INTO THE LOW TO MID 20 KT RANGE BY AFTERNOON. BMD //ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z... * HIGH CONFIDENCE IN LOWER END MVFR OR IFR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. LOW CONFIDENCE ON CIG TRENDS OVERNIGHT. * HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS FROM MID MORNING ON FRIDAY. BMD //OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 12Z... * FRIDAY NIGHT...DRY/VFR. GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. * SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...DRY/VFR. * MONDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. * TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...DRY/VFR. EASTERLY WINDS. KJB && .MARINE... 234 PM CDT WILL MAINTAIN THE GALE WATCH. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND HOISTED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS AS WINDS WILL BE RAMPING UP FRIDAY MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH SAT NGT/SUN MORNING. LOW PRESSURE DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN TO 29.3 INCHES AS IT NEARS LAKE MICHIGAN...THEN GUIDANCE FURTHER DEEPENS THE LOW TO AROUND 29.1 INCHES AS IT SHIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN QUEBEC LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN WINDS APPROACHING 30KT IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND LIKELY PRODUCE GALES POSSIBLY NEARING 40 KTS IN THE OPEN WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE A LITTLE LONGER SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AND BRING MUCH LIGHTER WINDS TO THE LAKE. THEN A QUICK MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE LAKE SUNDAY NGT-TUE AND COULD BRING A BRIEF INCREASE TO THE WINDS. THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE MINIMAL...SO CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTING TO NEED ANY HEADLINES. BEACHLER && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. IN...NONE. LM...GALE WATCH...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-LMZ567- LMZ868...7 PM FRIDAY TO 7 PM SATURDAY. GALE WATCH...LMZ080-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779- LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...7 PM FRIDAY TO 3 PM SATURDAY. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 1239 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1038 AM CDT THU OCT 16 2014 Persistent upper low that has brought several days of clouds and showers to the Midwest is slowly exiting the region this morning, with latest water vapor imagery showing it located over Ohio. Cloud cover from this feature still blankets much of central Illinois: however, skies have cleared along/west of a Galesburg to Jacksonville line. Clearing is making only very slow eastward progress, with satellite timing tools suggesting east-central Illinois will likely remain overcast through the afternoon. Meanwhile further west, skies will become mostly sunny along/west of the I-55 corridor. High temperatures will range from around 60 along the Indiana border to the upper 60s in the Illinois River Valley. Will make some updates to hourly sky/temp grids and send a zone update out shortly. && .SHORT TERM...(Today) ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT THU OCT 16 2014 Deep upper low over Ohio this morning, keeping cloud cover all the way back into Illinois under northerly/cyclonic flow. Back edge to the clouds pretty distinct this morning to the west, just east of the Mississippi River Valley. Weak ridging moving out of the Plains, but the cut off low is very slow to move out of the region until the kicker moves in. Said wave is over Montana this morning and slated to move in late tonight, though the upper low will begin its easterly drift today. Very slow in going anywhere, the big question for today is the timing of the back edge/clearing. 850mb-700mb moisture profiles pretty similar btwn GFS and NAM...with the HRRR also slow to clear today. Most of the CWA remains under cloudy skies this morning...slowly clearing the western half of the state by mid day. As a result, cooler in the east. && .LONG TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday) ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT THU OCT 16 2014 With the upper low moving out today and tonight...northwesterly flow briefly kicks in...with kicker wave diving into the larger scale trof and spinning around the exiting system. New wave bringing a weak sfc boundary that is barely a shift of winds. Cold front expected to pass with little notice on Friday. However weak, an increasing pressure gradient at the surface and some higher winds aloft will result in a breezy day with 20mph winds in the northern half of the state sustained...gusting 25-30. Ridge builds in for the weekend and the forecast remains dry with highs in the 50s and a chilly Sunday morning. Next chance for precip very small and in response to another wave moving into the Upper Midwest late Sunday/Monday. In fact, the ECMWF is the only model persistent with this feature actually pushing any QPF. The GFS has the wave, but remains dry this far south. Weak southerly flow and cloud cover will make Sunday night a little warmer than Sat night. Better precip chances will be further to the north, as the wave is running into a weak ridge over the region. That being said, silent slight chances on Sun night/Mon remain the only precip in the forecast. Sfc ridging and slightly cooler than seasonal norms expected in the remainder of the 7 day forecast. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon) ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2014 IFR/MVFR ceilings persist across the eastern half of the KILX CWA early this afternoon. 17z visible satellite imagery shows clearing line from KPIA to KSPI and inching eastward. Based on timing tools, clearing will reach KBMI/KDEC by 22z and further east to KCMI by 02z. Winds will be W/SW at less than 10kt this afternoon, then will back to the S this evening. Trough axis currently across the eastern Dakotas into eastern Nebraska will push through the region tonight, accompanied by a few high clouds and a wind shift back to the W/SW overnight. After that, a cold front dropping southward out of Canada will pass through Friday morning, turning the winds to the W/NW. Big question will be whether or not MVFR ceilings currently evident on satellite imagery behind this boundary will spread/develop southward to the TAF sites after FROPA. While NAM is quite aggressive in bringing clouds to at least the I-74 corridor by 15z, other models hold them further northwest. At this point, will only mention SCT low clouds between 14z and 18z as the front passes, thinking any BKN ceilings will hold off until afternoon. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...Barnes SHORT TERM...HJS LONG TERM...HJS AVIATION...Barnes
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
146 PM EDT THU OCT 16 2014 .SYNOPSIS... AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER TODAY...THEN CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... UPDATE... AFTER COORD WITH GYX HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF PISCATAQUIS AS WELL AS SOUTHERN PENOBSCOT COUNTY BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH NOON FRIDAY. SEE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS. OTHERWISE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE AFTERNOON FORECAST. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE THE TIMING OF RAINFALL AND AMOUNTS. 06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTED A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE FROM ABOUT CARIBOU BACK THROUGH ALLAGASH. NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES WERE RUNNING IN THE 60S. LATEST RADAR SHOWED A BATCH OF PRECIP(SHOWERS) MOVING ACROSS THE NWRN TIP OF MAINE W/SOME VERY LIGHT RETURNS SHOWING UP FROM TO TIME SOUTH OF THIS AREA DOWN INTO THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS. THE LATEST RAP AND NAM SOUNDINGS CONFIRMED THIS TO BE DRIZZLE W/A DEEP LLVL MOISTURE PROFILE, LIGHT ESE WINDS AND A DECENT DRY WEDGE NORTH OF THE MOIST LAYER. DECIDED TO CARRY DRIZZLE AND FOG INTO THE MID MORNING. THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWERS AROUND, BUT THEY WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED AND CONFINED TO THE W AND SW AS FORCING IS WEAK AT BEST AND LIMITED TO THE LLVLS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN TODAY W/READINGS IN THE 60S. ALL THIS IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS AN OCCLUDED FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TAP INTO A TROPICAL CONNECTION ASSOCIATED W/HRCN GONZALO. THIS CONNECTION CAN BE SEEN ON THE LATEST SATELLITE WV IMAGERY AS A STRONG PLUME IS SHOWN PUSHING N ALONG THE ATLC SEABOARD. HIGH PWATS OF 1.5+ INCHES, A LLVL JET OF 50 KTS AND STRONG SSE INFLOW THROUGH 700MBS SUPPORTS POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MDL SOUNDINGS ALSO POINT TO SOME ELEVATED CAPE ESPECIALLY FROM THE SW INTO EASTERN AREAS BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. LIGHTING STRIKES WERE SEEN ALONG THE VIRGINIA-NORTH CAROLINA COAST AS OF 06Z. DECIDED TO KEEP THE MENTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST AND ADDED THE MENTION OF TSTMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS INCLUDING PISCATAQUIS CO. AND UPSLOPE FAVORED AREAS WILL SEE OVER 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL W/SOME SPOTS HITTING 3 INCHES IN A 12 HR PERIOD. AFTER COORDINATION W/GYX, DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH. SOME MINOR FLOODING COULD OCCUR ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS, BUT RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL BE ABLE TO HANDLE THIS RAINFALL. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE OCCLUDED FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. DEEP MOISTURE...WITH A TROPICAL CONNECTION...WILL BE DRAWN NORTH ACROSS THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. AN AREA OF RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL CROSS THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE OCCLUSION WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ALSO POSSIBLE. PRECIPITATION WILL THEN TAPER TO SHOWERS IN THE WAKE OF THE OCCLUSION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. COULD HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS FRIDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DOWNEAST. A LOW LEVEL JET WILL ALSO CROSS THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE OCCLUSION. GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF THE OCCLUSION...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. HOWEVER...FORECAST WINDS APPEAR SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN WITH PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS FRIDAY/SATURDAY. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION SUNDAY...WHILE AN UPPER TROF CROSSES THE REGION. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS SUNDAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS DOWNEAST. COULD HAVE A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER TROF WILL MOVE NORTHEAST MONDAY. COULD HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MORNING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS MONDAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES NORTH WITH PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DOWNEAST MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS TUESDAY...WITH RAIN CHANCES THEN INCREASING TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS SUNDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES MONDAY/TUESDAY. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... NEAR TERM: IFR RIGHT INTO TONIGHT. THERE COULD BE PERIODS OF MVFR EARLY TODAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. SHORT TERM: IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN IMPROVING TO MVFR/VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS AND LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR COULD BE A CONCERN FRIDAY MORNING WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ALSO POSSIBLE. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS. GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY...THOUGH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS COULD LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS EARLY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: DECIDED TO GO W/A SCA STARTING LATER TONIGHT AS WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE OCCLUSION. THE NAM AND GFS BOTH SUPPORT A LLVL JET OF 50 KTS MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. SOME THIS STRONG WIND COULD MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. DECIDED TO GO W/GUSTS 25+ KTS AFTER MIDNIGHT W/SEAS BUILDING TO 7 FT BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE WATERS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN RAIN AND FOG FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. && .HYDROLOGY... A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH NOON FRIDAY FOR ALL OF PISCATAQUIS AS WELL AS SOUTHERN PENOBSCOT COUNTIES. WE ARE EXPECTING ANYWHERE FROM 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EAST FACING HIGHER TERRAIN OF PISCATQUIS COUNTY. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR MEZ004-010-015-031. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052. && $$ NEAR TERM...DUDA/HEWITT SHORT TERM...NORCROSS LONG TERM...NORCROSS AVIATION...DUDA/HEWITT/NORCROSS MARINE...DUDA/HEWITT/NORCROSS HYDROLOGY...DUDA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
250 PM EDT THU OCT 16 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1003 AM EDT THU OCT 16 2014 ...CLOUDS STICKING AROUND BUT DRIZZLE AND FOG SHOULD END THIS AFTERNOON... TWEAKED GOING FORECAST MAINLY FOR THE DENSE FOG ALONG SHORELINE OF WESTERN CWA. LIMITED ADVECTION AS WINDS ARE LIGHT MAY MAKE IT HARD TO GET RID OF THIS FOG. FOR MOST PART...THICKEST FOG IS OVER THE LAKE BUT WEB CAMS FROM ASHLAND WI...PORCUPINE MTS...ONTONAGON...AND EAGLE HARBOR SHOW IT PUSHING JUST INLAND AS WELL. ELSEWHERE...JUST SEEING SOME LINGERING DRIZZLE OVER PARTS OF CNTRL CWA AND 1-3SM TYPE FOG. PROBABLY WILL SEE THE DRIZZLE AND FOG DISIPPATE BY EARLY AFTN BUT THE CLOUDS LIKELY WILL STAY DUE TO THE LACK OF DRY AIR ADVECTION BENEATH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AROUND H85-H8 PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND 12Z RAOBS FM KINL AND KGRB. IMPACT TO TEMPS NOT TOO LARGE AS HIGHEST READINGS IN THE 50S STILL EXPECTED OVER FAR WEST CWA WHERE SKIES ARE ALREADY PARTLY CLOUDY ATTM. NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OF NOTE IS PUSHING ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WITH SHARP WIND SHIFT NOTED OVER WESTERN DAKOTAS. SHOULD SEE SIMILAR WEATHER OVER UPR MICHIGAN ON FRIDAY WITH INCREASING NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS AND MORE RAIN AS THAT DAKOTAS SYSTEM MERGES WITH THE SYSTEM THAT MOVED ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION EARLIER THIS WEEK. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 459 AM EDT THU OCT 16 2014 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER IN/OH. MUCH OF THE FCST AREA REMAINS UNDER CONSIDERABLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE NW SIDE OF THIS FEATURE...AND KMQT RADAR HAS SHOWN SPOTTY -SHRA/SPRINKLES AT TIMES OVER THE ERN FCST AREA OVERNIGHT. MUCH OF FAR WRN UPPER MI ENJOYED SUNNY SKIES YESTERDAY. DURING THE NIGHT...SOME FOG HAS FORMED IN THAT AREA AS WELL AS SOME LOW CLOUDS FROM PORTIONS OF THE KEWEENAW DOWN ALONG THE VCNTY OF THE SHORELINE INTO NW WI. UPSTREAM...A RATHER POTENT LOOKING SHORTWAVE IS MOVING E ACROSS MT WITH ASSOCIATED SFC LOW IN THE ND/SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA BORDER AREA. FOR TODAY...SOME -SHRA/SPRINKLES MAY CONTINUE TO APPEAR AT TIMES THRU THE MID MORNING OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE FCST AREA UNDER LINGERING WEAK DEEP LAYER FORCING PER QVECTORS. DEEP LAYER QVECTOR DIVERGENCE THEN TAKES OVER...SO IT APPEARS DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE THE RULE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTN. BIGGEST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE CLOUD TRENDS. WITH A LIGHT/VRBL WIND REGIME ACROSS THE AREA TODAY BTWN SFC LOW IN SRN ONTARIO AND APPROACHING LOW MOVING ALONG U.S./CANADA BORDER...THERE WILL BE LITTLE ADVECTION OCCURRING. THUS...A PESSIMISTIC CLOUD FCST APPEARS TO BE THE WAY TO GO. THE W WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE THE BETTER OPPORTUNITY TO SEE SOME SUNSHINE...AND THIS SHOULD HELP BOOST TEMPS TO AROUND 60F. WHERE CLOUDS ARE MORE PERSISTENT...LWR 50S WILL BE MORE COMMON. TONIGHT...THE POTENT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK INTO NRN MN AND WILL HELP PICK UP THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY. AS THIS OCCURS...PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE LATTER FEATURE WILL SWING BACK TO THE NW WITH LEFT EXIT OF 100KT UPPER JET STREAK ON E SIDE OF THE LOW ASSISTING PCPN PRODUCTION. MUCH OF THAT PCPN SHOULD PASS BY TO THE E AND N OF UPPER MI...BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO MENTION SCHC POPS OVER THE FAR E LATE. MEANWHILE...FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL SPREAD INTO WRN UPPER MI. INITIALLY...DEEP MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN IS LACKING...SO IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME BEFORE PCPN DEVELOPS. BEST POTENTIAL FOR PCPN SHOULD COME WITH THE ADDITION OF LOWER LEVEL FORCING FROM SFC-850MB TROF TRAILING WNW FROM SFC LOW WHICH SHOULD BE IN THE VCNTY OF CNTRL UPPER MI AT 12Z MON. HAVE THUS INTRODUCED CHC POPS OVER WRN UPPER LATE TONIGHT. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT THU OCT 16 2014 NAM SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES 00Z SAT WITH A TROUGH OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THERE IS A SHORTWAVE THAT IS MOVING DOWN THE RIDGE AND WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FRI NIGHT FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE LATE SUN. DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD FOR TEMPERATURE OR WEATHER. HAVE LIKELY POPS IN FOR FRI NIGHT AND SAT IN UPSLOPE AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AND THEN DRY THINGS OUT STARTING SAT AFTERNOON BEFORE BRINGING IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR LATE SUN. IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z MON WITH A SFC FRONT AND LOW PASSING THROUGH THE AREA. THIS TROUGH MOVES EAST ON TUE AND A 500 MB RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS THEN. THE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z WED THROUGH 12Z THU. THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL HAVE MOSTLY A DRY AND WARMING TREND WITH TEMPERATURES GOING ABOVE NORMAL BY TUE. WILL BE DRY MON NIGHT THROUGH THU FOR THIS FORECAST. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 147 PM EDT THU OCT 16 2014 AT KIWD AND KCMX...VFR CONDITIONS INTO TONIGHT...THEN AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA BEGINS TO CROSS THE AREA AND WINDS TURN NORTHERLY...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO RAPIDLY DETERIORATE TO IFR OR EVEN LOWER IN RAIN AND FOG. AT KSAW...WITH WEAK WINDS INTO TONIGHT AND LACK OF DRY AIR ADVECTION...LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT KSAW. VSBY SHOULD FALL BACK TO IFR LATER TONIGHT WITH NIGHTTIME COOLING LEADING TO MORE SATURATION. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH ON FRIDAY WILL SWITCH WINDS TO NORTHERLY MID-LATE MORNING WHICH WILL RESULT IN CONTINUATION OF LOW CLOUDS...AT LEAST AS LOW AS IFR. VSBY MAY IMPROVE FOR A TIME THOUGH...BEFORE STEADIER RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS DEVELOP ON FRIDAY AFTN. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 434 AM EDT THU OCT 16 2014 EXPECT LIGHT WINDS INTO EARLY FRI UNDER A RELATIVELY WEAK PRES GRADIENT. BUT THEN AS A PAIR OF UPPER DISTURBANCES COMBINE ON FRI... A DEEP LO PRES WILL DEVELOP IN SE CANADA AND BRING INCREASING NNW WINDS THAT INCREASE TO GALE FORCE/UP TO 40 KTS ON FRI AFTERNOON AND FRI NIGHT THAT IMPACT ALMOST ALL OF LAKE SUPERIOR INTO NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. ISSUED GALE WATCHES FOR ALL BUT FAR WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...WHERE THE WINDS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG. AS A HI PRES RIDGE APPROACHES FROM THE W ON SAT...THE STRONG WINDS WILL DIMINISH W-E. ALTHOUGH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE/SURFACE LO PRES WILL TRACK ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK...NO STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR LSZ248>251-267. GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR LSZ266. DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT /4 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ162-241>244-263-264. GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR LSZ263>265. GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR LSZ244-245. GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR LSZ242-243. LAKE MICHIGAN... GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR LMZ248-250. && $$ UPDATE...JLA SHORT TERM...ROLFSON LONG TERM...07 AVIATION...JLA MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
148 PM EDT THU OCT 16 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1003 AM EDT THU OCT 16 2014 ...CLOUDS STICKING AROUND BUT DRIZZLE AND FOG SHOULD END THIS AFTERNOON... TWEAKED GOING FORECAST MAINLY FOR THE DENSE FOG ALONG SHORELINE OF WESTERN CWA. LIMITED ADVECTION AS WINDS ARE LIGHT MAY MAKE IT HARD TO GET RID OF THIS FOG. FOR MOST PART...THICKEST FOG IS OVER THE LAKE BUT WEB CAMS FROM ASHLAND WI...PORCUPINE MTS...ONTONAGON...AND EAGLE HARBOR SHOW IT PUSHING JUST INLAND AS WELL. ELSEWHERE...JUST SEEING SOME LINGERING DRIZZLE OVER PARTS OF CNTRL CWA AND 1-3SM TYPE FOG. PROBABLY WILL SEE THE DRIZZLE AND FOG DISIPPATE BY EARLY AFTN BUT THE CLOUDS LIKELY WILL STAY DUE TO THE LACK OF DRY AIR ADVECTION BENEATH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AROUND H85-H8 PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND 12Z RAOBS FM KINL AND KGRB. IMPACT TO TEMPS NOT TOO LARGE AS HIGHEST READINGS IN THE 50S STILL EXPECTED OVER FAR WEST CWA WHERE SKIES ARE ALREADY PARTLY CLOUDY ATTM. NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OF NOTE IS PUSHING ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WITH SHARP WIND SHIFT NOTED OVER WESTERN DAKOTAS. SHOULD SEE SIMILAR WEATHER OVER UPR MICHIGAN ON FRIDAY WITH INCREASING NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS AND MORE RAIN AS THAT DAKOTAS SYSTEM MERGES WITH THE SYSTEM THAT MOVED ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION EARLIER THIS WEEK. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 459 AM EDT THU OCT 16 2014 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER IN/OH. MUCH OF THE FCST AREA REMAINS UNDER CONSIDERABLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE NW SIDE OF THIS FEATURE...AND KMQT RADAR HAS SHOWN SPOTTY -SHRA/SPRINKLES AT TIMES OVER THE ERN FCST AREA OVERNIGHT. MUCH OF FAR WRN UPPER MI ENJOYED SUNNY SKIES YESTERDAY. DURING THE NIGHT...SOME FOG HAS FORMED IN THAT AREA AS WELL AS SOME LOW CLOUDS FROM PORTIONS OF THE KEWEENAW DOWN ALONG THE VCNTY OF THE SHORELINE INTO NW WI. UPSTREAM...A RATHER POTENT LOOKING SHORTWAVE IS MOVING E ACROSS MT WITH ASSOCIATED SFC LOW IN THE ND/SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA BORDER AREA. FOR TODAY...SOME -SHRA/SPRINKLES MAY CONTINUE TO APPEAR AT TIMES THRU THE MID MORNING OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE FCST AREA UNDER LINGERING WEAK DEEP LAYER FORCING PER QVECTORS. DEEP LAYER QVECTOR DIVERGENCE THEN TAKES OVER...SO IT APPEARS DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE THE RULE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTN. BIGGEST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE CLOUD TRENDS. WITH A LIGHT/VRBL WIND REGIME ACROSS THE AREA TODAY BTWN SFC LOW IN SRN ONTARIO AND APPROACHING LOW MOVING ALONG U.S./CANADA BORDER...THERE WILL BE LITTLE ADVECTION OCCURRING. THUS...A PESSIMISTIC CLOUD FCST APPEARS TO BE THE WAY TO GO. THE W WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE THE BETTER OPPORTUNITY TO SEE SOME SUNSHINE...AND THIS SHOULD HELP BOOST TEMPS TO AROUND 60F. WHERE CLOUDS ARE MORE PERSISTENT...LWR 50S WILL BE MORE COMMON. TONIGHT...THE POTENT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK INTO NRN MN AND WILL HELP PICK UP THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY. AS THIS OCCURS...PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE LATTER FEATURE WILL SWING BACK TO THE NW WITH LEFT EXIT OF 100KT UPPER JET STREAK ON E SIDE OF THE LOW ASSISTING PCPN PRODUCTION. MUCH OF THAT PCPN SHOULD PASS BY TO THE E AND N OF UPPER MI...BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO MENTION SCHC POPS OVER THE FAR E LATE. MEANWHILE...FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL SPREAD INTO WRN UPPER MI. INITIALLY...DEEP MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN IS LACKING...SO IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME BEFORE PCPN DEVELOPS. BEST POTENTIAL FOR PCPN SHOULD COME WITH THE ADDITION OF LOWER LEVEL FORCING FROM SFC-850MB TROF TRAILING WNW FROM SFC LOW WHICH SHOULD BE IN THE VCNTY OF CNTRL UPPER MI AT 12Z MON. HAVE THUS INTRODUCED CHC POPS OVER WRN UPPER LATE TONIGHT. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 421 AM EDT THU OCT 16 2014 MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE MEDIUM/LONG TERM WL FOCUS ON POPS AND WINDS ON FRI INTO SAT AS A STRONG DISTURBANCE SLIDES THRU THE UPR LKS AND INTERACTS WITH SLOW MOVING CLOSED LO RESPONSIBLE FOR THE RECENT INCLEMENT WX OVER THE E HALF OF UPR MI. AS THE DISTURBANCES PHASE...A DEEP LO PRES WL DVLP OVER SE CANADA...BRINGING A STRONG AND COLDER NW FLOW THAT WL RESULT IN SOME LK ENHANCED PCPN FOR A TIME ON FRI NGT. RIGHT NOW...IT APPEARS MOST OF THE PCPN WL FALL AS RA. FRI/FRI NGT...STRONG SHRTWV CROSSING THE NRN ROCKIES EARLY THIS MRNG IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE UPR LKS ON FRI AND MERGE WITH THE SLUGGIST CLOSED LO NOW OVER THE OH RIVER VALLEY THAT WL BE MOVING NEWD THRU SE ONTARIO AT THAT TIME. THE RESULT WL BE A DEEPENING SFC LO PRES NEAR JAMES BAY AND STRENGTHENING NNW WINDS/CAD IN THE UPR LKS ON FRI AFTN AND NGT. ALTHOUGH THERE WL BE LTL MSTR INFLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE SHRTWV MOVING IN FM THE W ON FRI THAT WL LIMIT THE INTENSITY OF THE ACCOMPANYING QVECTOR CNVGC...VIGOROUS NATURE OF THIS SHRTWV/PVA ACCOMPANIED BY 12HR H5 HGT FALLS UP 100M WL SUPPORT LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NRN CWA ON THE CYC SIDE OF SHRTWV TRACK AND WHERE MODELS SHOW MORE APPRECIABLE DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC/UPR DVGC. EXPECT THE LOWEST POPS OVER THE SCENTRAL WITH DOWNSLOPE W VEERING NW LLVL WIND COMPONENT. AS NNW H925 WINDS INCRSG UP TO 40-45 KTS LATE FRI/FRI NGT DRIVE H85 TEMPS DOWN TO -4 TO -6C ON FRI NGT IN THE PRESENCE OF SOME LINGERING DEEP MSTR ON THE CYC SIDE OF A REINFORCING SHRTWV DIGGING SSEWD THRU MN...EXPECT A PERIOD OF LK ENHANCED PCPN THAT MAY FEATURE SOME SN MIXING IN WITH THE RA AT LEAST OVER THE HIER TERRAIN OF THE NW HALF. WINDS WL LIKELY AT LEAST APRCH ADVY CRITERIA...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LK SUP SHORE WITH THE INCRSG INSTABILITY. THE LK PCPN MAY BEGIN TO DIMINISH TOWARD 12Z SAT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF HGT RISES/MID LVL DRYING/LOWERING SUBSIDENCE INVRN UNDER THE DNVA IN THE WAKE OF THE UPR TROF SHIFTING INTO THE ERN LKS. ONE OTHER CONCERN WL BE THE HI WAVES WHIPPED UP ON LK SUP BY THE STRENGTHENING WINDS ON FRI NGT. SINCE THE LK SUP WATER LVL HAS RISEN UP TO HALF A FOOT ABV NORMAL...THERE MAY BE SOME BEACH FLOODING AT THE MORE EXPOSED LOCATIONS. SAT...THE APRCH OF A SHRTWV RDG AND ACCOMPANYING SFC HI PRES WL BRING DIMINISHING WINDS AND VIGOROUS MID LVL DRYING THAT WL CAUSE LK EFFECT PCPN ON SAT MRNG TO END IN THE AFTN IN THE PRESENCE OF DIURNAL HEATING EVEN IF A GOOD DEAL OF SC LINGERS WITHIN THE LLVL THERMAL TROF THAT IS PROGGED TO HOLD IN PLACE UNDER SUBSIDENCE INVRN NEAR H875 WITHIN THE NLY FLOW E OF THE APRCHG RDG AXIS. SOME CLRG IS LIKELY TO ARRIVE OVER THE W BY LATE IN THE AFTN WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE SFC RDG AXIS. SAT NGT...WITH RDG AXIS PASSING OVHD AND PWAT FCST AS LO AS 0.25 INCH SUPPORTING THE CLRG OF ANY LINGERING LO CLDS...EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL WELL INTO THE 20S OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF EVEN IF SOME HI CLDS ARRIVE LATE IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SHRTWV DIGGING SEWD THRU SCENTRAL CANADA. SINCE LO CLDS WL LINGER LONGER OVER THE E...TEMPS THERE WL NOT FALL AS FAR. SUN INTO MON...NEXT SHRTWV DROPPING SEWD AND INTO THE UPR LKS/UPR MIDWEST BY 12Z MON WL BRING INCRSG CLDS ON SUN AND THE NEXT CHC OF SHOWERS SUN AFTN INTO MON MRNG. ONCE AGAIN...MSTR INFLOW INTO THIS DISTURBANCE WL BE LIMITED...BUT FAIRLY VIGOROUS DPVA/QVECTOR CNVGC WILL BRING AT LEAST SCT SHOWERS BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF HGT RISES/DNVA IN THE WAKE OF THE SHRTWV SLIPPING TO THE SE DIMINISH THE PCPN THREAT LATER ON MON. ALL THE PCPN ACCOMPANYING THIS DISTURBANCE WL BE IN THE FORM OF RA EXTENDED...ALTHOUGH SOME CLDS AND EVEN A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER ON MON NGT UNDER LLVL CYC FLOW/LLVL THERMAL TROF LEFT IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SHRTWV/SFC LO...BLDG UPR RDG OVER CENTRAL NAMERICA AND SFC HI PRES IN THE GREAT LKS WL BRING DRY WX TO UPR MI. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 147 PM EDT THU OCT 16 2014 AT KIWD AND KCMX...VFR CONDITIONS INTO TONIGHT...THEN AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA BEGINS TO CROSS THE AREA AND WINDS TURN NORTHERLY...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO RAPIDLY DETERIORATE TO IFR OR EVEN LOWER IN RAIN AND FOG. AT KSAW...WITH WEAK WINDS INTO TONIGHT AND LACK OF DRY AIR ADVECTION...LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT KSAW. VSBY SHOULD FALL BACK TO IFR LATER TONIGHT WITH NIGHTTIME COOLING LEADING TO MORE SATURATION. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH ON FRIDAY WILL SWITCH WINDS TO NORTHERLY MID-LATE MORNING WHICH WILL RESULT IN CONTINUATION OF LOW CLOUDS...AT LEAST AS LOW AS IFR. VSBY MAY IMPROVE FOR A TIME THOUGH...BEFORE STEADIER RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS DEVELOP ON FRIDAY AFTN. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 434 AM EDT THU OCT 16 2014 EXPECT LIGHT WINDS INTO EARLY FRI UNDER A RELATIVELY WEAK PRES GRADIENT. BUT THEN AS A PAIR OF UPPER DISTURBANCES COMBINE ON FRI... A DEEP LO PRES WILL DEVELOP IN SE CANADA AND BRING INCREASING NNW WINDS THAT INCREASE TO GALE FORCE/UP TO 40 KTS ON FRI AFTERNOON AND FRI NIGHT THAT IMPACT ALMOST ALL OF LAKE SUPERIOR INTO NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. ISSUED GALE WATCHES FOR ALL BUT FAR WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...WHERE THE WINDS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG. AS A HI PRES RIDGE APPROACHES FROM THE W ON SAT...THE STRONG WINDS WILL DIMINISH W-E. ALTHOUGH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE/SURFACE LO PRES WILL TRACK ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK...NO STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR LSZ248>251-267. GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR LSZ266. DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT /4 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ162-241>244-263-264. GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR LSZ263>265. GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR LSZ244-245. GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR LSZ242-243. LAKE MICHIGAN... GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR LMZ248-250. && $$ UPDATE...JLA SHORT TERM...ROLFSON LONG TERM...KC AVIATION...JLA MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
255 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2014 TEMPERATURES WILL PROVIDE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES INTO THE MID PART OF NEXT WEEK. THERE IS SOME CHANCE OF PCPN BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AN IMPRESSIVE 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS NOTED OVER THE DAKOTAS WITH 12 HR HEIGHT FALLS OF ABOUT 150 METERS OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. LATEST RUC INITIALIZATION IN COMBINATION WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED THE CENTER OF THE CIRCULATION WAS OVER NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE NOTED JUST AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. 850 MB CHART FROM 12Z THIS MORNING SHOWED A THERMAL RIDGE FROM WEST TEXAS UP INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. THIS HAS ALREADY BEEN SHIFTING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA AS OF MID AFTERNOON. FAIRLY DEEP MIXING ALONG/BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA HELPED PUSH TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE 70S...BUT COOLING WAS ALREADY TAKING PLACE IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. MODEST LOW LEVEL GRADIENT TONIGHT MAY HELP KEEP WINDS UP...SO RAISED THEM A BIT COMPARED TO LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. THE AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS CURRENTLY OFF TO OUR NORTH MAY MOVE INTO OUR NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING (MOSTLY NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM ALBION TO FREMONT AND RED OAK). OTHERWISE...WE LOOK FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES (COMPARED TO TODAY) FOR BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS BUILDS INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT SO KEPT LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER AND MID 30S (AT OR BELOW MOS GUIDANCE). SURFACE WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE LATER SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING...THEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST. GOOD MIXING WITH THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH HIGHS INTO THE 60S MOST AREAS WITH SOME HIGHS AROUND 70 WESTERN ZONES. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2014 THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY AT THE BEGINNING BUT MAY TURN WET BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY. LATEST MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...WITH A 500 MB RIDGE FROM WYOMING UP INTO ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN. A CLOSED LOW WILL BE NEAR THE ARIZONA/CALIFORNIA/MEXICO BORDER REGION AND A TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM ALASKA DOWN TO NEAR 30 N 135 W. SOME ENERGY WILL MOVE EAST OUT OF THAT TROUGH IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND BE OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION BY WEDNESDAY. THIS LOOKS LIKE IT WILL PROVIDE OUT NEXT GOOD CHANCE FOR PCPN. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS ARE NOT IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT BY THAT TIME (GFS IS WET FOR OUR AREA WHILE THE ECMWF HOLDS THE PCPN MAINLY TO OUR WEST)... THE GENERAL PATTERN SUGGESTS LOW CHANCE CATEGORY POPS ARE NEEDED FOR NOW. HIGHS FROM MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY 60S TO LOWER 790S WITH LOWS IN THE 40S OR UPPER 30S. && .AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2014 LATEST SFC OBS REVEALING A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM ERN SD TO WRN KS WAS BEGINNING TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO ERN NEB. KOFK WINDS HAVE ALREADY SHIFTED TO THE NW...AND SAME EXPECTED AT KOMA/KLNK WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. TIGHT SFC PRES GRADIENT OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP WINDS GUSTY THE REST OF THIS AFTN. EXPECT NW WIND GUST TO RAMP UP AGAIN EARLY FRI MORNING WHEN PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP AGAIN. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...MILLER LONG TERM...MILLER AVIATION...DEE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
310 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2014 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2014 SHOWER CHANCES AND WIND POTENTIAL THIS EVENING/TONIGHT WILL BE THE MAIN CHALLENGES. 12Z MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT. A SECONDARY PUSH OF COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM CANADA THIS EVENING...WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW TO 925MB (WITH 925MB WIND SPEEDS @40-45 KNOTS)...AND MIXING UP TO 850MB...ALONG WITH A SFC PRESSURE RISE 4-5MB/3-HR (ACROSS NE ND AND NW MN). THIS WILL MOSTLY OCCUR AFTER SUNSET AND WITH CLOUD COVER...SO MIXING POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO WILL BE BRIEF WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS WITH THE INITIAL PUSH OF COLD AIR ADVECTION...WITH NEAR ADVISORY CONDITIONS A MAJORITY OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOPWRF INDICATES A LOW PROBABILITY (30%) FOR ADVISORY WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN VALLEY...WHICH WOULD TEND TO AGREE WITH THE EXPECTED SCENARIO. A BAND OF PERSISTENT SHOWERS JUST NORTH OF THE UPPER LOW HAS PRODUCED 0.20-0.40 INCHES OF RAINFALL ACROSS A PORTION OF THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN. LATEST HRRR INDICATES THIS BAND WILL SLOWLY PIVOT SOUTH/SOUTHEAST...AND DISSIPATE. RADAR INDICATES THAT THIS IS BEGINNING TO OCCUR...AND WILL ADJUST POPS/WX TOWARD THIS SOLUTION. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT...SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT NOT SURE WHEN AND WHERE (HRRR/RAP INDICATES MORE ISOLATED/SCATTERED COVERAGE). IF A PERSISTENT BAND OF SHOWERS AGAIN DEVELOPS...WILL ADJUST POPS UPWARD. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. COLDER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED...WITH BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2014 SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SHORTWAVE WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS CANADA ON SATURDAY AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS ON SATURDAY...WITH A WIND SHIFT AND BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURE SHOULD BE WARMER EACH DAY (STRONGEST COLD AIR ADVECTION NOT EXPECTED UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT). THE AIRMASS WILL BE RELATIVELY DRY...AND WITH THE STRONGEST FORCING TO THE NORTH SHOWER CHANCES ARE EXTREMELY LIMITED. SUNDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...SYNOPTIC MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT THIS PERIOD. DEPARTING UPPER WAVE...BUILDING HEIGHTS AND SURFACE HIGH BUILDING IN SPELL DECREASING WINDS. SURFACE HIGH TRANSITS CWFA...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MINIMAL MIXING TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY. RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY LEADING TO BREEZY SOUTH WINDS. BLOCKING LOW OVER EASTERN U.S. AND SPLIT FLOW LEAD TO SLOW MOVING UPPER AND SURFACE PATTERN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS BOTH DAYS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO AND ACROSS THE CWFA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WITH GFS/ECMWF TIMING SIMILAR. LEFT BLEND POPS ALONE DUE TO THE INHERENT UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT IN TIME. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2014 WIND SHIFT ALONG THE RED RIVER AT 1730Z FCST TO CONT MOVING EAST AT 20 KTS PASSING KTVF 19Z AND KBJI 22Z. GUSTS 30KTS PSL WITHIN 1-2 HOURS FROPA...THEN WINDS DIMINISH. EXP SPEEDS TO INCREASE WITH GUSTS GTR 30KTS AFT 00Z. VCSH DVL-GFK THROUGH 00Z AND KTVF AFT 21Z VFR CIGS FCST EXCEPT BCMG MVFR DVL AREA AFT 00Z. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...TG LONG TERM...EWENS/TG AVIATION...EWENS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
422 PM EDT THU OCT 16 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A DEEP UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ACCOMPANIED BY A SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EVE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH EARLY FRIDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL THEN SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A SHARP COOLING TREND FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... THE UPPER LOW OVER THE LOWER GR LAKES WILL LIFT THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. COOL AIR ALOFT AND MODEST AFTERNOON HEATING WILL PROVIDE SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY...SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. LATEST HRRR SUPPORTS THE FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THE SHOWERS OVER MY SWRN ZONES...SPREADING NE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE FADING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING. BRIEF DOWNPOURS MAY DROP A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN IN A FEW SPOTS...BUT MOST LOCATIONS THAT SEE RAIN WILL HAVE AMOUNTS OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS ON AVERAGE. THE OVERNIGHT WILL FEATURE BREEZY WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY FAVORING WESTERN AND NORTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN. LOWS IN THE 40S WILL AVERAGE 5-10 DEG ABOVE NORMAL. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... DEEP LAYER FLOW GRADUALLY BACKS TO THE SW FRIDAY AS A FLAT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES EAST ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY...WITH MOST CLOUDS AND A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGHER COUNTRY. CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. FRIDAY`S HIGHS IN THE 60S WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... CLOSED LOW ALOFT CURRENTLY NEAR THE THUMB OF LOWER MI WILL LIFT INTO SOUTHEAST ONTARIO ON FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...A COMPACT SHORTWAVE WILL TRANSLATE QUICKLY ESEWD THROUGH THE DAKOTAS/MN AND AMPLIFY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRI-SAT...MERGING WITH THE PREVIOUS CLOSED LOW AND ULTIMATELY HELPING TO REINFORCE A LARGER SCALE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST SECTOR OF THE CONUS. THE MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DIGGING RATHER SHARPLY EWD THROUGH THE OH VLY INTO THE MID-ATLC STATES LATER SAT-SUN. THIS ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO GO NEG TILT AS IT REACHES NEW ENGLAND ON SUN. YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FCST TO DIG INTO THE UPPER MS VLY ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL LKLY INFLUENCE THE PATTERN OVER THE NE CONUS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AS MODEL AND ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS SHOWS DOWNSTREAM TROUGH AMPLIFICATION AND A POSSIBLE CUT-OFF LOW FORMING OVER THE MID ATLC REGION. FOR SENSIBLE WX HIGHLIGHTS...GUSTY/COLDER NW FLOW IN THE WAKE OF FROPA EARLY SATURDAY SHOULD SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT/UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWERS /POSSIBLY MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS SAT NGT/ OVER THE WESTERN HIGHLANDS AND DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE. POPS WERE ELEVATED OVER THESE AREAS GIVEN FAVORABLE PATTERN AND STRONG MODEL AGREEMENT. HP SPELLS A BRIEF RESPITE IN PCPN ACTIVITY FROM LATER SUN INTO EARLY MONDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS SUPPORTS SFC WAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY 12Z MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A TRANSFER OF ENERGY OFF THE EAST COAST AROUND 00Z WED. AT THIS POINT THERE IS AT LEAST AVG CONFIDENCE IN A CLOSED LOW ALOFT OVER THE MID ATLC STATES AND ASSOCD SFC LOW PRES NEAR/OFFSHORE THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. WHILE THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING THE PCPN PATTERN DURING THE LATER PERIODS...FELT THAT IT WAS PRUDENT TO RAISE POPS IN THE OUTER PERIODS ESPECIALLY OVER THE ERN PRTNS OF THE CWA AS THE PATTERN IS LOOKING RATHER UNSETTLED. TEMPS WILL AVG ON THE CHILLY SIDE OF CLIMO. && .AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AN UPPER LEVEL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SWING THRU THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH LOCAL RESTRICTIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRECIPITATION. BEST CHANCE FOR REDUCED CEILINGS/VIZ WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN 1/2 OF THE FORECAST AREA...HIGHER TERRAIN TERMINALS. SHOWERS/THUNDER WILL TEND TO DWINDLE THIS EVENING AS WE LOSE HEATING. MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO LINGER OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN TERMINALS FROM JST NORTH THROUGH BFD...WHILE CEILINGS IN THE 3000-5000` RANGE WILL BE MORE LIKELY OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS. OUTLOOK... FRI...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE N/W...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR. GUSTY SFC WINDS 15-25KT FROM 240-270. SAT...MVFR CIGS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY N/W. SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS WEST SAT NIGHT. GUSTY SFC WINDS 15-25KT FROM 270-300. SUN...MVFR EARLY BECOMING VFR. DECREASING WINDS. MON...NO SIG WX. TUE...MVFR/SHOWERS AS A SLOW MOVING SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE GR LAKES. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE NEAR TERM...LA CORTE SHORT TERM...LAMBERT LONG TERM...STEINBUGL AVIATION...LA CORTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
237 PM EDT THU OCT 16 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A DEEP UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ACCOMPANIED BY A SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EVE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH EARLY FRIDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL THEN SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A SHARP COOLING TREND FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... THE UPPER LOW OVER THE LOWER GR LAKES WILL LIFT THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. COOL AIR ALOFT AND MODEST AFTERNOON HEATING WILL PROVIDE SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY...SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. LATEST HRRR SUPPORTS THE FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THE SHOWERS OVER MY SWRN ZONES...SPREADING NE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE FADING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING. BRIEF DOWNPOURS MAY DROP A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN IN A FEW SPOTS...BUT MOST LOCATIONS THAT SEE RAIN WILL HAVE AMOUNTS OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS ON AVERAGE. THE OVERNIGHT WILL FEATURE BREEZY WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY FAVORING WESTERN AND NORTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN. LOWS IN THE 40S WILL AVERAGE 5-10 DEG ABOVE NORMAL. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/... DEEP LAYER FLOW GRADUALLY BACKS TO THE SW FRIDAY AS A FLAT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES EAST ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY...WITH MOST CLOUDS AND A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGHER COUNTRY. CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. FRIDAY`S HIGHS IN THE 60S WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... EXTENDED PERIOD IS DOMINATED BY BROAD TROF BRINGING MUCH COOLER AND GENERALLY CLOUDY WEATHER TO THE AREA. A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL BRING LOW CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION...BUT MOST OF THE TIME WILL BE PERCEPTION FREE. SECONDARY SHOT OF COLDER AIR ARRIVES LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. COOLEST DAY IN THE PERIOD WILL BE ON SUNDAY WITH MANY LOCATIONS WILL STRUGGLE TO LEAVE THE 40S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AN UPPER LEVEL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SWING THRU THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH LOCAL RESTRICTIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRECIPITATION. BEST CHANCE FOR REDUCED CEILINGS/VIZ WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN 1/2 OF THE FORECAST AREA...HIGHER TERRAIN TERMINALS. SHOWERS/THUNDER WILL TEND TO DWINDLE THIS EVENING AS WE LOSE HEATING. MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO LINGER OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN TERMINALS FROM JST NORTH THROUGH BFD...WHILE CEILINGS IN THE 3000-5000` RANGE WILL BE MORE LIKELY OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS. OUTLOOK... FRI...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE N/W...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR. GUSTY SFC WINDS 15-25KT FROM 240-270. SAT...MVFR CIGS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY N/W. SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS WEST SAT NIGHT. GUSTY SFC WINDS 15-25KT FROM 270-300. SUN...MVFR EARLY BECOMING VFR. DECREASING WINDS. MON...NO SIG WX. TUE...MVFR/SHOWERS AS A SLOW MOVING SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE GR LAKES. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE NEAR TERM...LA CORTE SHORT TERM...LAMBERT LONG TERM...ROSS/LAMBERT AVIATION...LA CORTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
707 PM EDT THU OCT 16 2014 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT ALLOWING WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER FAST MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATER FRIDAY BEFORE SLIDING THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT ON SATURDAY RESULTING IN COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 610 PM EDT THURSDAY... ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES WITH LATEST OBC AND MODELS TRENDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. MODIFIED CLOUD COVER ALLOWING FOR MORE SUNSHINE. ADJUSTED POPS TOWARDS THE HRRR WITH DECREASING CHANCES OF INSTABILITY SHOWERS GOING INTO TONIGHT. MORE CHANGES LATER TONIGHT. AS OF 300 PM EDT THURSDAY... INSTABILITY SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND WANE FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. THE RESPONSIBLE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL HEAD EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. BEHIND IT...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO ROUGHLY 25-30KTS AT 850 MB. DECOUPLING OF SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND WITHIN MOST OF THE MOUNTAINS VALLEYS. HOWEVER...THE INCREASE AND LOWERING OF THESE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WILL HELP MAINTAIN A BREEZE TONIGHT AT THE RIDGE TOPS ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH BETWEEN ROUGHLY MIDNIGHT AND 6AM. THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL HELP MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS WILL YIELD NO OR VERY LIMITED CLOUD COVER EAST OF THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. ON FRIDAY...LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL CAUSE THE WEST TO LOSE ITS UPSLOPE COMPONENT...AND MOST AREAS BY MIDDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY ACROSS THE REGION. SURFACE WINDS WILL START THE DAY LIGHT AND VARIABLE...OR LIGHT FROM THE SOUTHWEST THEN INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 400 PM EDT THURSDAY... CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER ONTARIO CANADA WILL DUMBBELL SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THEN PHASES WITH THE GREAT LAKES TROUGH. THIS WILL SEND A CLIPPER LIKE SURFACE FRONT THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY WITH A BRIEF SHOT OF COOL AIR FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE MOISTURE STARVED...SO LITTLE IN THE WAY OF QPF ANTICIPATED. THE MOUNTAINS MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT PASSES OVER THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD DRY UP IN THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE THAT DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY...AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD REMAIN MILD...ALTHOUGH INCREASING CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM MAY INHIBIT HEATING WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND ESPECIALLY EASTERN WV AND FAR SW VA. AFTER FROPA...SURGE OF COOLER AIR IS FORCED INTO THE REGION UNDER BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS. 850 MB TEMPS TAKE A PLUNGE TO ZERO CELCIUS BY MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT...BEFORE RECOVERING SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ANY LINGERING MOISTURE SATURDAY NIGHT MAY MIX WITH A FEW SNOWFLAKES IN THE MTNS OF WV...MAINLY ABOVE 3000 FEET IN ELEVATION. GROUND TEMPERATURES ARE STILL WELL ABOVE FREEZING SO NO ACCUMULATION. TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE FOR SUNDAY WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COOLER THAN SATURDAY...STRUGGLING TO REACH 50 IN THE MTNS AND 60 EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THE BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE REGION. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 400 PM EDT THURSDAY... PROGRESSIVE PATTERN SUPPORTS ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...SHORT WAVE COMING FROM THE NORTHWEST AND SENDING ANOTHER FRONT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. ATTM MODELS INDICATE LITTLE SUPPORT FOR PRECIP...EXCEPT FOR THE MOUNTAINS. THERE ARE SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS WHICH SUGGEST THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL TRIGGER THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL STORM AS THE ENERGY PASSES OFF THE DELMARVA. EVEN THOUGH THIS DOES NOT PRECIPITATE INTO MUCH OF A QPF PRODUCER FOR OUR REGION...THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE COULD RESULT IN A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER FOR MID WEEK THAN WHAT WE HAVE BEEN FORECASTING. FOR NOW...WILL TREND CLOUD COVER UP FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AND LOWER TEMPERATURES. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 650 PM EDT THURSDAY... LOW CLOUDS INCLUDING MVFR CIGS LIKELY TO PREVAIL OVER THE SE WEST VIRGINIA LOCATIONS THIS EVENING...WITH A MIX OF VFR TO MVFR EAST TO THE BLUE RIDGE...AND MAINLY VFR UNDER SCATTERED/BKN CLOUDS OUT EAST. COULD STILL SEE A FEW ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE COVERAGE TOTALLY FADES WITH LOSS OF HEATING. THUS ONLY INCLUDING A MENTION AT PERHAPS KBLF WHERE SOMEWHAT DEEPER MOISTURE RESIDES. OVERNIGHT...AN INCREASED NORTHWEST JET ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH SHOULD HELP MAINTAIN OR INCREASE IN COVERAGE THE AMOUNT OF UPSLOPE MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR FOR MAINLY SPEED DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND ABOUT 2000 FT AGL IS EXPECTED BETWEEN ROUGHLY 04Z/MIDNIGHT AND 12Z/8AM WHEN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS AND WEAKENS...AND SURFACE WINDS START TO INCREASE. LIMITED MVFR/IFR VALLEY FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT PENDING DEGREE OF RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER. MOST WILL BE IN THE PREFERRED RIVER VALLEYS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION ONCE WESTERN MVFR CIGS SCATTER OUT AROUND 14-15Z/10-11AM. EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION... THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...TWO FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND BRING THEIR ASSOCIATED FRONTS THROUGH OUR REGION. WHILE EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA ARE EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS...THE PREFERRED UPSLOPE REGIONS IN THE WEST MAY SEE A COUPLE ROUNDS OF MVFR CIGS AND SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AND THEN AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WHEN IT MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR THE FIRST SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OF THE SEASON. EACH OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL ALSO HELP TO RAMP UP SURFACE WINDS WITH GUSTS APPROACH 30 KTS AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JH NEAR TERM...DS/KK SHORT TERM...PM LONG TERM...PM AVIATION...DS/JH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
612 PM EDT THU OCT 16 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WITH A COLD FRONT ACRING SOUTHEAST THROUGH NEW ENGLAND AND EXTENDING WELL OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SOUTH INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 610 PM EDT THURSDAY... ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES WITH LATEST OBC AND MODELS TRENDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. MODIFIED CLOUD COVER ALLOWING FOR MORE SUNSHINE. ADJUSTED POPS TOWARDS THE HRRR WITH DECREASING CHANCES OF INSTABILITY SHOWERS GOING INTO TONIGHT. MORE CHANGES LATER TONIGHT. AS OF 300 PM EDT THURSDAY... INSTABILITY SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND WANE FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. THE RESPONSIBLE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL HEAD EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. BEHIND IT...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO ROUGHLY 25-30KTS AT 850 MB. DECOUPLING OF SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND WITHIN MOST OF THE MOUNTAINS VALLEYS. HOWEVER...THE INCREASE AND LOWERING OF THESE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WILL HELP MAINTAIN A BREEZE TONIGHT AT THE RIDGE TOPS ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH BETWEEN ROUGHLY MIDNIGHT AND 6AM. THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL HELP MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS WILL YIELD NO OR VERY LIMITED CLOUD COVER EAST OF THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. ON FRIDAY...LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL CAUSE THE WEST TO LOSE ITS UPSLOPE COMPONENT...AND MOST AREAS BY MIDDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY ACROSS THE REGION. SURFACE WINDS WILL START THE DAY LIGHT AND VARIABLE...OR LIGHT FROM THE SOUTHWEST THEN INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 400 PM EDT THURSDAY... CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER ONTARIO CANADA WILL DUMBBELL SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THEN PHASES WITH THE GREAT LAKES TROUGH. THIS WILL SEND A CLIPPER LIKE SURFACE FRONT THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY WITH A BRIEF SHOT OF COOL AIR FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE MOISTURE STARVED...SO LITTLE IN THE WAY OF QPF ANTICIPATED. THE MOUNTAINS MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT PASSES OVER THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD DRY UP IN THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE THAT DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY...AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD REMAIN MILD...ALTHOUGH INCREASING CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM MAY INHIBIT HEATING WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND ESPECIALLY EASTERN WV AND FAR SW VA. AFTER FROPA...SURGE OF COOLER AIR IS FORCED INTO THE REGION UNDER BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS. 850 MB TEMPS TAKE A PLUNGE TO ZERO CELCIUS BY MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT...BEFORE RECOVERING SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ANY LINGERING MOISTURE SATURDAY NIGHT MAY MIX WITH A FEW SNOWFLAKES IN THE MTNS OF WV...MAINLY ABOVE 3000 FEET IN ELEVATION. GROUND TEMPERATURES ARE STILL WELL ABOVE FREEZING SO NO ACCUMULATION. TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE FOR SUNDAY WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COOLER THAN SATURDAY...STRUGGLING TO REACH 50 IN THE MTNS AND 60 EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THE BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE REGION. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 400 PM EDT THURSDAY... PROGRESSIVE PATTERN SUPPORTS ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...SHORT WAVE COMING FROM THE NORTHWEST AND SENDING ANOTHER FRONT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. ATTM MODELS INDICATE LITTLE SUPPORT FOR PRECIP...EXCEPT FOR THE MOUNTAINS. THERE ARE SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS WHICH SUGGEST THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL TRIGGER THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL STORM AS THE ENERGY PASSES OFF THE DELMARVA. EVEN THOUGH THIS DOES NOT PRECIPITATE INTO MUCH OF A QPF PRODUCER FOR OUR REGION...THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE COULD RESULT IN A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER FOR MID WEEK THAN WHAT WE HAVE BEEN FORECASTING. FOR NOW...WILL TREND CLOUD COVER UP FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AND LOWER TEMPERATURES. && .AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 130 PM EDT THURSDAY... PRIMARILY MVFR CIGS AND VRF VSBYS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED INSTABILITY SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS IN CONJUNCTION WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND STEEP LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND WANE AS THE SUN BEGINS TO SET. LITTLE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO THE PIEDMONT AS WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD HELP LIMIT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION. OVERNIGHT...AN INCREASED NORTHWEST JET ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH SHOULD HELP MAINTAIN OR INCREASE IN COVERAGE THE AMOUNT OF UPSLOPE MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR FOR MAINLY SPEED DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND ABOUT 2000 FT AGL IS EXPECTED BETWEEN ROUGHLY 04Z/MIDNIGHT AND 12Z/8AM WHEN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS AND WEAKENS...AND SURFACE WINDS START TO INCREASE. LIMITED MVFR/IFR VALLEY FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT. MOST WILL BE IN THE PREFERRED RIVER VALLEYS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION ONCE WESTERN MVFR CIGS SCATTER AROUND 14-15Z/10-11AM. EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION... THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...TWO FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND BRING THEIR ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXES INTO AND TROUGH OUR REGION. WHILE EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA ARE EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS...THE PREFERRED UPSLOPE REGIONS IN THE WEST MAY SEE A COUPLE ROUNDS OF MVFR CIGS AND SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AND THEN AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WHEN IT MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR THE FIRST SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OF THE SEASON. EACH OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL ALSO HELP TO RAMP UP SURFACE WINDS WITH GUSTS APPROACH 30 KTS AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AMS/PM NEAR TERM...DS/KK SHORT TERM...PM LONG TERM...PM AVIATION...DS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
144 PM EDT THU OCT 16 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS OVER LAKE ERIE WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES ON SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1240 PM EDT THURSDAY... THE AREA OF LIGHT RAIN THAT MOVED INTO WESTERN PARTS OF THE REGION HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE PAST HOUR. ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON THANKS TO SURFACE HEATING AND STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT. THE FOCUS FOR THE BEST COVERAGE STILL IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA. HAVE MADE SMALL ADJUSTMENTS UPWARD IN MOST LOCATIONS FOR HIGHER MAX TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY BASED UPON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND EXPECTED TRENDS IN AREAS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE SOME SUNSHINE TODAY. AS OF 940 AM EDT THURSDAY... REGIONAL RADARS ARE DEPICTING A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH KY/WV. THE LEADING EDGE IS JUST STARTING TO REACH THE FAR WESTERN PARTS OF OUR REGION BETWEEN ROUGHLY TAZEWELL AND RICHLANDS VA. PREVAILING FLOW AROUND THE UPPER LOW JUST ADVECT THIS ACTIVITY INTO MAINLY THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY ACROSS A GREATER SWATH OF THE REGION THAN PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED...SPECIFICALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA. HAVE ALSO EXTENDED THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FARTHER EAST THIS MORNING BASED UPON SOME LIGHT RETURNS ON KFCX RADAR IN THIS REGION AND BOTH HRRR AND RNK WRK ARW MODEL PROJECTIONS THE NEXT FEW HOURS. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AT THIS TIME. AS OF 430 AM EDT THURSDAY... DEEP UPPER LOW OVER OHIO DRIFTS NORTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. TROF AXIS WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE TONIGHT. UNTIL THEN...THREE SHORT WAVES CROSS THE AREA. MODELS HAVE ONE OF THESE WAVES CROSSING THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST AREAS WILL STILL BE UNDER THE COLD CORE OF THE UPPER LOW. WITH DAYTIME HEATING...LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS. 850 MB WINDS FROM THE WEST AT 30-35 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. SHUD BE ENOUGH MIXING FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. WATER VAPOR LOOP AND MODELS HAD EXTENSIVE AREA OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THE UPPER LOW. THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TODAY AND BY THIS EVENING...MOISTURE WILL BE CONFINED TO LOW LEVELS IN THE WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA. BY 00Z/8PM...SURFACE THROUGH 850 MB WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST. THEN SURFACE RIDGING FROM HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF COAST WILL BACK WINDS. THIS WILL END THE MUCH OF THE UPSLOPE...EVEN IN THE FAR WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA. HAVE TRIMMED BACK CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AFTER MIDNIGHT. STATED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY. EXPECTING ENOUGH CLEARING IN ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHWEST TONIGHT FOR SOME DECENT RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS. WENT LOWER THAN GUIDANCE FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 400 AM EDT THURSDAY... AT THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY BE LIFTING OUT OF THE REGION...BUT THE PARENT UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL ALLOW THE UPPER LOW TO DUMBBELL BACK AROUND INTO THE REGION AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST OUT OF ALBERTA AND ANOTHER SHORT WAVE...TRACKING OVER AN UPPER RIDGE IN THE WESTERN STATES...PHASES WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE. THIS WILL SEND AN ALBERTA CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM INTO THE REGION FOR SAT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. FRI HOWEVER...SHOULD BE ONE OF THE BEST DAYS IN THE LAST WEEK OR SO WITH CONSIDERABLE AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE AND MILD TEMPS WITH WEST SFC FLOW AND NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. STRONG DYNAMICS ARE INDICATED WITH THE APPROACHING SHORT WAVE WITH STRONG PVA SAT/SAT EVENING...BUT MOISTURE IS LIMITED. SFC FLOW IS WEST AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...WHICH WILL FURTHER LIMIT MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE REGION...AND PRODUCE DOWNSLOPING/DRYING EAST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT -SHRA WILL MOST DEFINITELY DEVELOP WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT LATE SATURDAY/SATURDAY EVENING...WITH PERHAPS A FEW SPRINKLES REACHING THE BLUE RIDGE AS THE UPPER SHORT WAVE TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT TOWARD 06Z SUN AND ROTATES THROUGH THE REGION. FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE CHC RANGE...BUT COULD SEE SOME LOW LIKELYS FROM WESTERN GREENBRIER INTO NW SUMMERS SAT EVENING. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL BE MILDER WITH WEST FLOW...BUT CONSIDERABLE MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL INHIBIT HEATING WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND ESPECIALLY EASTERN WV/SW VA. AS WE MOVE INTO SAT NIGHT AND THE SHORT WAVE TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT AND ROTATES THROUGH THE PARENT TROUGH...A NEAR WINTERLIKE PATTERN IS EVIDENT...AT LEAST FOR ABOUT 6 HOURS INTO SUN MORNING. DECENT 15-20KT UPSLOPE COMPONENT INDICATED AND 850MB TEMPS DROP INTO THE -2C RANGE WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT TOWARD 12Z SUN. DO FEEL THAT THE UPSLOPE COMPONENT IS SUFFICIENT ENOUGH WITH THE INDICATED 850MB TEMPS AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...MAINLY ABOVE 3500 FT...TO SUPPORT OUR FIRST -SHSN OF THE SEASON. THIS WOULD MAINLY AFFECT WESTERN GREENBRIER NORTHWARD...POSSIBLY EXTREME NW SUMMERS. SFC TEMPS WILL LIKELY REMAIN AOA FREEZING EXCEPT AT THE VERY HIGHEST ELEVATIONS...SO NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED AT ALL. ANY -SHSN SHOULD BE ENDING QUICKLY AFT 12Z SUN AS THE UPSLOPE COMPONENT BECOMES LESS FAVORABLE AND THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT. TEMPERATURES SUN WILL BE COOLER...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND A FEW 40S IN WESTERN GREENBRIER WHERE UPSLOPE CLOUDS COULD LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH FAIRLY QUICKLY...HOWEVER...AS THE DAY PROGRESSES WITH THE UPPER FLOW QUICKLY RESPONDING TO THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 430 AM EDT THURSDAY... PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH A SERIES OF NW FLOW SHORT WAVES CONTINUING TO BE THE MAIN WEATHER MAKER FOR THE REGION. THE MAIN CONCERN OF SIGNIFICANCE WILL BE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHEN SOME FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE EARLY SUN. HOWEVER...THE WIND MAY BE TOO STRONG YET TO ALLOW FOR ANY WIDESPREAD FREEZE...WHICH HAS YET TO OCCUR SO FAR THIS FALL. THIS WOULD BE THE LAST CHANCE FOR A FREEZE FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH IS RAPIDLY APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE MONDAY...WHICH APPEARS SIMILAR TO THE SAT SYSTEM...ALBEIT LESS DYNAMIC AND OVERALL FURTHER NORTH. THIS SHOULD BE FOLLOWED BY SEVERAL DAYS OF QUIET WEATHER ONCE AGAIN WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR FREEZE/FROST COMING BEHIND THIS SYSTEM EARLY THU. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 130 PM EDT THURSDAY... PRIMARILY MVFR CIGS AND VRF VSBYS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED INSTABILITY SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS IN CONJUNCTION WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND STEEP LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND WANE AS THE SUN BEGINS TO SET. LITTLE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO THE PIEDMONT AS WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD HELP LIMIT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION. OVERNIGHT...AN INCREASED NORTHWEST JET ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH SHOULD HELP MAINTAIN OR INCREASE IN COVERAGE THE AMOUNT OF UPSLOPE MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR FOR MAINLY SPEED DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND ABOUT 2000 FT AGL IS EXPECTED BETWEEN ROUGHLY 04Z/MIDNIGHT AND 12Z/8AM WHEN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS AND WEAKENS...AND SURFACE WINDS START TO INCREASE. LIMITED MVFR/IFR VALLEY FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT. MOST WILL BE IN THE PREFERRED RIVER VALLEYS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION ONCE WESTERN MVFR CIGS SCATTER AROUND 14-15Z/10-11AM. EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION... THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...TWO FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND BRING THEIR ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXES INTO AND TROUGH OUR REGION. WHILE EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA ARE EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS...THE PREFERRED UPSLOPE REGIONS IN THE WEST MAY SEE A COUPLE ROUNDS OF MVFR CIGS AND SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AND THEN AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WHEN IT MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR THE FIRST SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OF THE SEASON. EACH OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL ALSO HELP TO RAMP UP SURFACE WINDS WITH GUSTS APPROACH 30 KTS AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AMS NEAR TERM...AMS/DS SHORT TERM...RAB LONG TERM...PC/RAB AVIATION...DS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1241 PM EDT THU OCT 16 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS OVER LAKE ERIE WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES ON SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1240 PM EDT THURSDAY... THE AREA OF LIGHT RAIN THAT MOVED INTO WESTERN PARTS OF THE REGION HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE PAST HOUR. ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON THANKS TO SURFACE HEATING AND STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT. THE FOCUS FOR THE BEST COVERAGE STILL IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA. HAVE MADE SMALL ADJUSTMENTS UPWARD IN MOST LOCATIONS FOR HIGHER MAX TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY BASED UPON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND EXPECTED TRENDS IN AREAS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE SOME SUNSHINE TODAY. AS OF 940 AM EDT THURSDAY... REGIONAL RADARS ARE DEPICTING A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH KY/WV. THE LEADING EDGE IS JUST STARTING TO REACH THE FAR WESTERN PARTS OF OUR REGION BETWEEN ROUGHLY TAZEWELL AND RICHLANDS VA. PREVAILING FLOW AROUND THE UPPER LOW JUST ADVECT THIS ACTIVITY INTO MAINLY THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY ACROSS A GREATER SWATH OF THE REGION THAN PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED...SPECIFICALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA. HAVE ALSO EXTENDED THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FARTHER EAST THIS MORNING BASED UPON SOME LIGHT RETURNS ON KFCX RADAR IN THIS REGION AND BOTH HRRR AND RNK WRK ARW MODEL PROJECTIONS THE NEXT FEW HOURS. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AT THIS TIME. AS OF 430 AM EDT THURSDAY... DEEP UPPER LOW OVER OHIO DRIFTS NORTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. TROF AXIS WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE TONIGHT. UNTIL THEN...THREE SHORT WAVES CROSS THE AREA. MODELS HAVE ONE OF THESE WAVES CROSSING THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST AREAS WILL STILL BE UNDER THE COLD CORE OF THE UPPER LOW. WITH DAYTIME HEATING...LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS. 850 MB WINDS FROM THE WEST AT 30-35 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. SHUD BE ENOUGH MIXING FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. WATER VAPOR LOOP AND MODELS HAD EXTENSIVE AREA OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THE UPPER LOW. THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TODAY AND BY THIS EVENING...MOISTURE WILL BE CONFINED TO LOW LEVELS IN THE WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA. BY 00Z/8PM...SURFACE THROUGH 850 MB WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST. THEN SURFACE RIDGING FROM HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF COAST WILL BACK WINDS. THIS WILL END THE MUCH OF THE UPSLOPE...EVEN IN THE FAR WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA. HAVE TRIMMED BACK CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AFTER MIDNIGHT. STATED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY. EXPECTING ENOUGH CLEARING IN ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHWEST TONIGHT FOR SOME DECENT RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS. WENT LOWER THAN GUIDANCE FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 400 AM EDT THURSDAY... AT THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY BE LIFTING OUT OF THE REGION...BUT THE PARENT UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL ALLOW THE UPPER LOW TO DUMBBELL BACK AROUND INTO THE REGION AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST OUT OF ALBERTA AND ANOTHER SHORT WAVE...TRACKING OVER AN UPPER RIDGE IN THE WESTERN STATES...PHASES WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE. THIS WILL SEND AN ALBERTA CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM INTO THE REGION FOR SAT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. FRI HOWEVER...SHOULD BE ONE OF THE BEST DAYS IN THE LAST WEEK OR SO WITH CONSIDERABLE AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE AND MILD TEMPS WITH WEST SFC FLOW AND NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. STRONG DYNAMICS ARE INDICATED WITH THE APPROACHING SHORT WAVE WITH STRONG PVA SAT/SAT EVENING...BUT MOISTURE IS LIMITED. SFC FLOW IS WEST AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...WHICH WILL FURTHER LIMIT MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE REGION...AND PRODUCE DOWNSLOPING/DRYING EAST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT -SHRA WILL MOST DEFINITELY DEVELOP WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT LATE SATURDAY/SATURDAY EVENING...WITH PERHAPS A FEW SPRINKLES REACHING THE BLUE RIDGE AS THE UPPER SHORT WAVE TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT TOWARD 06Z SUN AND ROTATES THROUGH THE REGION. FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE CHC RANGE...BUT COULD SEE SOME LOW LIKELYS FROM WESTERN GREENBRIER INTO NW SUMMERS SAT EVENING. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL BE MILDER WITH WEST FLOW...BUT CONSIDERABLE MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL INHIBIT HEATING WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND ESPECIALLY EASTERN WV/SW VA. AS WE MOVE INTO SAT NIGHT AND THE SHORT WAVE TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT AND ROTATES THROUGH THE PARENT TROUGH...A NEAR WINTERLIKE PATTERN IS EVIDENT...AT LEAST FOR ABOUT 6 HOURS INTO SUN MORNING. DECENT 15-20KT UPSLOPE COMPONENT INDICATED AND 850MB TEMPS DROP INTO THE -2C RANGE WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT TOWARD 12Z SUN. DO FEEL THAT THE UPSLOPE COMPONENT IS SUFFICIENT ENOUGH WITH THE INDICATED 850MB TEMPS AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...MAINLY ABOVE 3500 FT...TO SUPPORT OUR FIRST -SHSN OF THE SEASON. THIS WOULD MAINLY AFFECT WESTERN GREENBRIER NORTHWARD...POSSIBLY EXTREME NW SUMMERS. SFC TEMPS WILL LIKELY REMAIN AOA FREEZING EXCEPT AT THE VERY HIGHEST ELEVATIONS...SO NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED AT ALL. ANY -SHSN SHOULD BE ENDING QUICKLY AFT 12Z SUN AS THE UPSLOPE COMPONENT BECOMES LESS FAVORABLE AND THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT. TEMPERATURES SUN WILL BE COOLER...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND A FEW 40S IN WESTERN GREENBRIER WHERE UPSLOPE CLOUDS COULD LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH FAIRLY QUICKLY...HOWEVER...AS THE DAY PROGRESSES WITH THE UPPER FLOW QUICKLY RESPONDING TO THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 430 AM EDT THURSDAY... PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH A SERIES OF NW FLOW SHORT WAVES CONTINUING TO BE THE MAIN WEATHER MAKER FOR THE REGION. THE MAIN CONCERN OF SIGNIFICANCE WILL BE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHEN SOME FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE EARLY SUN. HOWEVER...THE WIND MAY BE TOO STRONG YET TO ALLOW FOR ANY WIDESPREAD FREEZE...WHICH HAS YET TO OCCUR SO FAR THIS FALL. THIS WOULD BE THE LAST CHANCE FOR A FREEZE FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH IS RAPIDLY APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE MONDAY...WHICH APPEARS SIMILAR TO THE SAT SYSTEM...ALBEIT LESS DYNAMIC AND OVERALL FURTHER NORTH. THIS SHOULD BE FOLLOWED BY SEVERAL DAYS OF QUIET WEATHER ONCE AGAIN WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR FREEZE/FROST COMING BEHIND THIS SYSTEM EARLY THU. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 735 AM EDT THURSDAY... IFR TO MVFR CLOUDS HAVE EXPANDED NORTH ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND WILL BE SPREADING INTO KBCB BEFORE 14Z/10AM. EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...BREAKS IN THE HIGH CLOUDS RESULTED IN PATCHY MVFR TO IFR FOG FORMATION. EXPECT NO IMPACT FROM FOG AT KROA/KLYH AND KDAN. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WAS APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. MORE SHOWERS WILL POP UP BY MID TO LATE MORNING WITH SOME DAYTIME HEATING...BUT AS FLOW BECOMES MORE W AND NW...DOWNSLOPE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE SHOULD KEEP KDAN/KLYH OUT OF THE SHRA. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ANYWHERE FROM KBCB WEST INTO SE WEST VIRGINIA...MAINLY BETWEEN 15Z/11AM AND 21Z/5PM. AFTER SUNSET...CLOUDS WILL CLEAR EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. MVFR CEILINGS WILL HOLD IN MUCH OF THE NIGHT IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...INCLUDING KBLF AND KLWB. EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION... BY FRIDAY...THE INITIAL PIECE OF THE 5H TROUGH WILL LIFT BACK NORTH ALLOWING FOR A DRIER ZONAL FLOW TO BRIEFLY DEVELOP WHICH WILL BRING WIDESPREAD VFR TO END THE WEEK. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT LACKING MOISTURE BUT ENOUGH TO LIKELY WRING OUT SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCED MVFR LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS SE WEST VIRGINIA WHERE A FEW SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME OF THIS CLOUD COVER MAY SPILL INTO KBCB/KROA GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE NW FLOW WITH LESS CLOUDS TO THE EAST PER DOWNSLOPE DRYING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH VFR EXPECTED. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AMS NEAR TERM...AMS/DS SHORT TERM...RAB LONG TERM...PC/RAB AVIATION...AMS/JH