Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 10/15/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
1210 AM MDT MON OCT 13 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1208 AM MDT MON OCT 13 2014
UPDATED TO DROP THE WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS AND TO ADJUST POPS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AND
LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS SHOW ACTIVITY ENDING AROUND 3 AM IN MOST
AREAS. ALSO MONITORING SOME OF THE LOWER VALLEYS AS TEMPS DROPPING
INTO THE 30S ALREADY AND MAY MAKE A BRIEF RUN AT FREEZING BY
SUNRISE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 910 PM MDT SUN OCT 12 2014
ROAD REPORTS AND WEB CAMS SUGGEST THAT SNOW OVER VAIL PASS
CONTINUES TO HAVE IMPACT...AND THE SAME HOLDS TRUE FOR MONARCH
PASS. THE SNOW MAY HAVE STOPPED OVER RABBIT EARS BUT RADAR STILL
SHOW SHOWERS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 40 AND MOVING SOUTHWARD. WILL LET
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY PLAY OUT. SNOW HAS DIMINISHED OVER THE
NWRN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS AND HAVE ALLOWED THE ADVISORY TO EXPIRE. A
FEW FLURRIES STILL ONGOING...BUT REMOTE SENSORS SUGGEST THE
SNOWFALL HAS PLAYED OUT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 721 PM MDT SUN OCT 12 2014
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED QUITE A BIT DURING THE PAST 1-2 HOURS.
FORECAST UPDATE TO CANCEL THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHERN
VALLEYS. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE DIMINISHING AND IF CURRENT TREND
HOLDS...THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES MAY BE CANCELLED EARLY BUT
STILL HAVING SOME IMPACT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 246 PM MDT SUN OCT 12 2014
ACTIVE WEATHER DAY CONTINUES WITH SNOW...RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALL PLAYING A PART. THE COLD FRONT RESPONSIBLE FOR
THE PRECIP HAS ALREADY PUSHED OUT OF THE CWA AND DID SO FASTER
THAN ANTICIPATED. IN FACT...IT MOVED OVER DURANGO AROUND NOON
WHICH WAS SEVERAL HOURS QUICKER THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST. EVEN
SO...THE ASSOCIATED SNOWFALL CAUSED SOME HEADACHES OVER MTN PASSES
ESPECIALLY VAIL PASS THAT WAS CLOSED FOR SOME TIME THIS MORNING
AND AFTERNOON. LOCAL SNOTELS SHOWING UPWARDS OF 6 INCHES HAVING
FALLEN NEAR TOWER AND SPOTTERS REPORTING AN INCH OR TWO AT MTN
BASES THOUGH THAT SNOW QUICKLY MELTED. UNSETTLED W TO NW FLOW HAS
SET UP BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL KEEP PRECIP IN THE PICTURE
THROUGH THIS AFTN AND EVENING. ONE BIG DIFFERENCE FOR THIS TIME
FRAME IS THE ON AGAIN OFF AGAIN NATURE OF THE PRECIP DUE TO ITS
CONVECTIVE NATURE. WILL KEEP ADVISORIES IN PLACE. OF NOTE IS
LATEST RAP13 AND HRRR SHOWING PRECIP REALLY WINDING DOWN EARLY
THIS EVENING AS OPPOSED TO MIDNIGHT SO CHANCE DOES EXIST FOR SOME
WINTER HIGHLIGHTS TO BE PULLED DOWN EARLY.
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT AND REFLECTED IN ALMOST ALL AREAS
REPORTING WIND GUSTS. THESE GUSTS HAVE RANGED FROM 20 MPH TO 45
MPH AT THE DURANGO AIRPORT. THE WIND WILL SLOWLY START DYING DOWN
N OF I-70 A LITTLE AFTER 6PM WHILE AREAS SOUTH WILL BE A LITTLE
LATER. THE WIND ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE. ALSO UPGRADED THE FREEZE
WATCH TO WARNINGS AS GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING BELOW FREEZING TEMPS
OVERNIGHT WHICH MAKES SENSE AS NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
USHER IN COLD AIR WHILE CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE. A BRISK MORNING
IN STORE.
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN MONDAY BRINGING A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF PRECIP-FREE WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND AS
DESCRIBED BELOW.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM MDT SUN OCT 12 2014
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION TUESDAY
BRINGING VERY DRY AND PLEASANT AUTUMN CONDITIONS. THE RIDGE AXIS
MOVES EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS A PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH MOVES
ONSHORE. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN PART
OF OUR FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND RIDGE TIGHTENS. GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS ON THE
RIDGE FLATTENING AND COOLER AIR OVER NORTHERN UTAH AND COLORADO ON
THURSDAY BEFORE RIDGING STRENGTHENS AGAIN ON FRIDAY.
THE LONG RANGE FORECAST MODELS DIVERGE ON SATURDAY BUT BOTH KEEP
CONDITIONS DRY NEXT WEEKEND THROUGHOUT THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1110 PM MDT SUN OCT 12 2014
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO TONIGHT AND
WILL COME TO AN END AROUND 09Z THIS MORNING. NEAR SHOWERS EXPECT
MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND VSBYS WITH OCCASIONAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR COZ001-007-008-
020>022.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JDC
SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...JDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
1112 PM MDT SUN OCT 12 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 910 PM MDT SUN OCT 12 2014
ROAD REPORTS AND WEB CAMS SUGGEST THAT SNOW OVER VAIL PASS
CONTINUES TO HAVE IMPACT...AND THE SAME HOLDS TRUE FOR MONARCH
PASS. THE SNOW MAY HAVE STOPPED OVER RABBIT EARS BUT RADAR STILL
SHOW SHOWERS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 40 AND MOVING SOUTHWARD. WILL LET
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY PLAY OUT. SNOW HAS DIMINISHED OVER THE
NWRN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS AND HAVE ALLOWED THE ADVISORY TO EXPIRE. A
FEW FLURRIES STILL ONGOING...BUT REMOTE SENSORS SUGGEST THE
SNOWFALL HAS PLAYED OUT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 721 PM MDT SUN OCT 12 2014
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED QUITE A BIT DURING THE PAST 1-2 HOURS.
FORECAST UPDATE TO CANCEL THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHERN
VALLEYS. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE DIMINISHING AND IF CURRENT TREND
HOLDS...THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES MAY BE CANCELLED EARLY BUT
STILL HAVING SOME IMPACT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 246 PM MDT SUN OCT 12 2014
ACTIVE WEATHER DAY CONTINUES WITH SNOW...RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALL PLAYING A PART. THE COLD FRONT RESPONSIBLE FOR
THE PRECIP HAS ALREADY PUSHED OUT OF THE CWA AND DID SO FASTER
THAN ANTICIPATED. IN FACT...IT MOVED OVER DURANGO AROUND NOON
WHICH WAS SEVERAL HOURS QUICKER THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST. EVEN
SO...THE ASSOCIATED SNOWFALL CAUSED SOME HEADACHES OVER MTN PASSES
ESPECIALLY VAIL PASS THAT WAS CLOSED FOR SOME TIME THIS MORNING
AND AFTERNOON. LOCAL SNOTELS SHOWING UPWARDS OF 6 INCHES HAVING
FALLEN NEAR TOWER AND SPOTTERS REPORTING AN INCH OR TWO AT MTN
BASES THOUGH THAT SNOW QUICKLY MELTED. UNSETTLED W TO NW FLOW HAS
SET UP BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL KEEP PRECIP IN THE PICTURE
THROUGH THIS AFTN AND EVENING. ONE BIG DIFFERENCE FOR THIS TIME
FRAME IS THE ON AGAIN OFF AGAIN NATURE OF THE PRECIP DUE TO ITS
CONVECTIVE NATURE. WILL KEEP ADVISORIES IN PLACE. OF NOTE IS
LATEST RAP13 AND HRRR SHOWING PRECIP REALLY WINDING DOWN EARLY
THIS EVENING AS OPPOSED TO MIDNIGHT SO CHANCE DOES EXIST FOR SOME
WINTER HIGHLIGHTS TO BE PULLED DOWN EARLY.
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT AND REFLECTED IN ALMOST ALL AREAS
REPORTING WIND GUSTS. THESE GUSTS HAVE RANGED FROM 20 MPH TO 45
MPH AT THE DURANGO AIRPORT. THE WIND WILL SLOWLY START DYING DOWN
N OF I-70 A LITTLE AFTER 6PM WHILE AREAS SOUTH WILL BE A LITTLE
LATER. THE WIND ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE. ALSO UPGRADED THE FREEZE
WATCH TO WARNINGS AS GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING BELOW FREEZING TEMPS
OVERNIGHT WHICH MAKES SENSE AS NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
USHER IN COLD AIR WHILE CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE. A BRISK MORNING
IN STORE.
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN MONDAY BRINGING A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF PRECIP-FREE WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND AS
DESCRIBED BELOW.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM MDT SUN OCT 12 2014
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION TUESDAY
BRINGING VERY DRY AND PLEASANT AUTUMN CONDITIONS. THE RIDGE AXIS
MOVES EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS A PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH MOVES
ONSHORE. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN PART
OF OUR FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND RIDGE TIGHTENS. GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS ON THE
RIDGE FLATTENING AND COOLER AIR OVER NORTHERN UTAH AND COLORADO ON
THURSDAY BEFORE RIDGING STRENGTHENS AGAIN ON FRIDAY.
THE LONG RANGE FORECAST MODELS DIVERGE ON SATURDAY BUT BOTH KEEP
CONDITIONS DRY NEXT WEEKEND THROUGHOUT THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1110 PM MDT SUN OCT 12 2014
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO TONIGHT AND
WILL COME TO AN END AROUND 09Z THIS MORNING. NEAR SHOWERS EXPECT
MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND VSBYS WITH OCCASIONAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR COZ004-
010-012-013.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MDT MONDAY FOR COZ001-007-008-020>022.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...PF
SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...JDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
611 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST THROUGH TUESDAY. A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL
SYSTEM APPROACHES FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD...PASSING EAST
BY THE END OF THE WEEK. A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS THEN PASS THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
CLOSED LOW PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY WILL SLOWLY
LIFT NORTHEAST TONIGHT. THIS FULL LATITUDE TROUGH WILL HELP BUILD
THE EAST COAST/WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE.
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST WITH A LOW LEVEL S/SE
FLOW SETTING UP ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK
WARM FRONT.
THIS MOIST LOW-LEVEL S/SE FLOW AND WAA TO THE NORTH OF THE WARM
FRONT IS RESULTING IN STRATUS DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING
ACCOMPANIED BY ENOUGH LIFT IN THE LOW LEVELS FOR AREAS OF DRIZZLE
INTO LATE TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...WEAK MID LEVEL WAA COULD PRODUCE
A LIGHT SHOWER. ANY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.
THE SOUTH WINDS AND CLOUD COVER WILL RESULT IN A MILD NIGHT WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 ACROSS NYC METRO. THIS IS ABOUT
10 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY NORMALS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON OVERALL FEATURES IN THIS
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN. CLOSED UPPER LOW EVER SO SLOWLY MOVES
EAST. RIDGE AXIS TRACKS EAST...SETTING UP A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW
ALONG THE EAST COAST. PER NAM/GFS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC SLIDES EAST AS LOW PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS
ILLINOIS AND INTO INDIANA THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. PERSISTENT
SOUTH FLOW BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL ADVECT A HIGH AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE NORTHWARD.
ON TUESDAY...SOME CLEARING IS FORECAST IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE MID
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION PASSES TO THE NORTH AND EAST. A STRAY SHOWER
NORTH AND WEST OF NYC IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPING. HIGH TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL BE
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S...AND EVEN A BIT HIGHER ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NYC METRO. THESE READINGS ARE ONLY TEMPERED BY PERSISTENT S/SE
FLOW OFF THE MIDDLE 60 DEGREE WATERS.
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ALONG WITH AREAS OF LIGHT
RAIN OR DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER SATURATES. TEMPS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY WARM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. OVERNIGHT LOWS
MAY BE 15 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS...60S THROUGHOUT.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THERE IS NOW DECENT AGREEMENT AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS REGARDING THE
TIMING OF THE MID-LATE WEEK STORM SYSTEM. CMC AND GFS HAVE SETTLED
CLOSER TO THE STRONGER CLOSED 500 MB LOW/LESS PROGRESSIVE ECMWF
SOLUTION THAT IT HAD BEEN SHOWING SINCE LATE LAST WEEK.
AT THE SURFACE...A TRIPLE POINT LOW PASSES OVER OR NEARBY THE TRI
STATE AREA...PROBABLY SOMETIME DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
WITH THIS SYSTEM...PLENTY MOISTURE ENTRAINMENT FROM THE GULF AND
ATLANTIC...POSSIBLY INCLUDING SOME FROM DISTANT TROPICAL SYSTEM
GONZALO....HELP PWATS APPROACH 2 INCHES. LIFT WILL BE DEEP AS WELL
WITH A JET STREAK NEARBY...PVA...AND A LOW LEVEL JET PASSING
THROUGH. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FACTORS BRINGS THE LIKELIHOOD OF A
MODERATE RAINFALL EVENT...POTENTIALLY HEAVY. MARGINAL INSTABILITY
AND THE UPWARD FORCING WILL ALSO BRING AN ISOLATED THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS...ENHANCING RAINFALL TOTALS.
SO FOR WEDNESDAY...JUST LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS FROM AROUND THE CITY
AND POINTS WEST. THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE TEMPS...WHICH...WHILE NOT
EXPECTED TO REACH RECORDS...WILL AVERAGE WELL ABOVE NORMALS AS HIGHS
REACH MAINLY MID AND UPPER 70S. SOME INLAND SPOTS PROBABLY REACH 80.
RAIN THEN BECOMES LIKELY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...THEN ENDS WEST TO EAST LATE IN THE DAY TO THURSDAY EVENING.
THE FLOW ALOFT ON FRIDAY WILL BE ONLY SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC WITH WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY INSTABILITY
SHOWERS. WILL HOWEVER PUT IN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS BOTH DAYS OF
THE WEEKEND AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE CYCLONIC. THE FLOW THEN
BECOMES LESS CYCLONIC ON MONDAY WITH A DRY FORECAST.
AFTER ABOVE-NORMAL HIGHS ON THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGHS RETURN
CLOSER TO NORMALS SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP A CONSISTENT SSW-SSE WIND THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD...MAINLY NEAR 10 KT OR LESS.
FAIRLY RAPID DETERIORATION OF CIGS/VSBY HAVE BEEN NOTED ACROSS SE
PA/CENTRAL NJ THIS EVENING WITH STRATUS/DRIZZLE TO NORTH OF MID
ATLANTIC WARM FRONT. BASED ON LATEST HRRR AND RAP
SOUNDINGS...EXPECTATION IS FOR CONDS TO CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE TO
IFR ACROSS NYC METRO TERMINALS BETWEEN 23Z AND 00Z WITH STRATUS
AND DRIZZLE ACCOMPANYING THIS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY SPREAD
TO TERMINALS N&E THROUGH THE EVENING.
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR TUESDAY MORNING WITH A SCATTERING OF
THESE LOWER CIGS EXPECTED BY EARLY TO MID TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE FOR CATEGORY AND HIGH FOR WINDS.
UNCERTAINTY IN CATEGORY WITH THE TIMING OF MVFR WHICH COULD VARY BY
2-4 HOURS.
...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: PREVAILING IFR TIMING COULD BE OFF BY 1-2
HOURS.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: PREVAILING IFR TIMING COULD BE OFF BY 1-2
HOURS.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: PREVAILING IFR TIMING COULD BE OFF BY 1-2
HOURS.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: PREVAILING IFR TIMING COULD BE OFF BY 1-2
HOURS.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: PREVAILING IFR TIMING COULD BE OFF BY 1-2
HOURS.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: PREVAILING MVFR/IFR TIMING COULD BE OFF BY 1-2
HOURS.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUE THROUGH SAT...
.TUE AFTERNOON-NIGHT...VFR RETURNING MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. S-SE
WINDS 10KT. MVFR OR LOWER CONDS LIKELY LATE TUE NIGHT IN STRATUS
AND POSSIBLY FOG.
.WED...MVFR OR LOWER STRATUS/FOG LIKELY IN MORNING. INCREASING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY AFTERNOON/NIGHTTIME WITH MVFR CONDS. S-SE
WINDS 10-15KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE.
.THU-THU NIGHT...MVFR CONDS LIKELY...IFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN
SHOWERS. SE WINDS 15G25KT. LLWS POSSIBLE.
.FRI...VFR LIKELY. WSW WINDS 10-15G20KT.
.SAT...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
THE WATERS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND LOW
PRESSURE WELL TO THE WEST THROUGH TUESDAY. AS A RESULT...PERSISTENT
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE WATERS.
FOR THE SHELTERED WATERS AROUND LONG ISLAND...SUB SCA CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED. FOR THE OCEAN WATERS...SEAS DUE TO SE SWELLS MAY
APPROACH 5 FEET AND WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. FOR NOW...NO HEADLINES
WILL BE POSTED AND WILL CAP SEAS AT 4 FT.
SE WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE...WHICH WILL PROBABLY PASSES
TO THE NW SOMETIME ON THURSDAY WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE SW THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. OCEAN SEAS THEREFORE BUILD TO SCA LEVELS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING...AND REMAIN AT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS IS IN PART DUE TO
POTENTIAL SWELL CONTRIBUTION FROM DISTANT TROPICAL SYSTEM GONZALO.
FOR THE OTHER WATERS...A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KT COULD BE POSSIBLE LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH TUESDAY. ONLY SPOTTY
LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ARE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE AND A HALF TO TWO INCHES IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE.
RAINFALL WILL POTENTIALLY BE HEAVY AT TIMES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE PRIMARILY MINOR SMALL
STREAM/URBANIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/PW
NEAR TERM...PW/NV
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...JC/PW
HYDROLOGY...JC/PW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1247 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY OUT TO SEA THROUGH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. A
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY, AND
IT SHOULD PASS THROUGH OUR REGION ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO NOSE INTO OUR AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST FOR FRIDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST IS ANTICIPATED TO ARRIVE
OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH THE EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE, WE CONTINUED TO FOCUS THE MAIN
AREA OF SCATTERED SHWRS WITH SOME HIGH CHANCE POPS THROUGH
PORTIONS OF THE DELMARVA AND FAR SOUTHERN NJ BASED ON CURRENT
RADAR TRENDS AND DATA FROM THE HRRR AND RAP. AMOUNTS FROM THESE
SHOWERS SHOULD MAINLY BE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OR LESS.
TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING, WE THEN FOCUSED SOMEWHAT
HIGHER POPS FROM THE EASTERN SHORE OF MARYLAND THROUGH PORTIONS OF
EASTERN PA, AS THERE WERE SOME HINTS IN THE RAP AND HRRR MODEL
DATA OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHWRS FOR THESE AREAS. IN ADDITION,
HOURLY TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS WERE ADJUSTED THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON,
AND WE ALSO TWEAKED MAX TEMPS BY A DEGREE OR TWO, MOSTLY ACROSS
EASTERN PA.
OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE OF
THE NORTHEAST STATES THROUGH TODAY, WHICH WILL KEEP A SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP THE
LOW LEVELS MOIST, LEADING TO OVERCAST SKIES THROUGH THE DAY. THERE
IS SOME VERY WEAK LIFT MOVING THROUGH DURING THE DAY AS SOME WEAK
VORTICITY SLIDES INTO THE AREA, SO THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED-
SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. QPF AMOUNTS ARE LIGHT, SO ANY
RAIN SHOULD ONLY AMOUNT TO A COUPLE OF HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OVERALL.
WE DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE TODAY, SO WE DO NOT
EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TODAY. A BLEND OF MET/MAV MOS AND
MOSGUIDE WAS USED, WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER EMPHASIS ON THE COOLER
MET.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
THE HIGH PRESSURE DOES NOT MOVE MUCH THROUGH TONIGHT, REMAINING
OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL KEEP CLOUDY SKIES AND PLENTY
OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FLOWING ACROSS THE AREA. THERE WILL REMAIN A
CHANCE OF RAIN OVERNIGHT AS ANOTHER WEAK PIECE OF VORTICITY SLIDES
ACROSS THE AREA. QPF AMOUNTS REMAIN LIGHT, SO ANY RAIN SHOULD ONLY
AMOUNT TO A COUPLE OF HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. WITH THE AMOUNT OF
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE, IT`S ALSO POSSIBLE WE MAY ALSO SEE SOME PATCHY
DRIZZLE OR FOG DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT, ESPECIALLY FOR THE
NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A MID LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN
NORTH ATLANTIC ON TUESDAY WITH A CUT OFF LOW CENTERED OVER THE
SAINT LOUIS VICINITY. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT OVER INDIANA
FOR WEDNESDAY.
WE EXPECT OUR REGION TO GET INTO THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE NEAR OR A BIT ABOVE 80 DEGREES IN MUCH OF
OUR REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON BOTH DAYS IN THE
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH SURFACE FLOW.
THERE IS A LOW OR SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS
OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. ALSO, THE
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGHOUT OUR REGION MAY RESULT IN
PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION APPROACHING FROM THE WEST IS
ANTICIPATED TO MAKE SLOW PROGRESS INTO OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
THE MID LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO LIFT OVER MICHIGAN AND LAKES
HURON AND SUPERIOR DURING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO PULL A NEGATIVE TILT TROUGH OVER OUR REGION ON
THURSDAY NIGHT.
WE ARE FORECASTING AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH OUR MOST LIKELY TIME FOR PRECIPITATION BEING FROM LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED TO LINGER
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT UNTIL THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS CLEARS OUR
REGION.
WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH THIS ROBUST SYSTEM. CONDITIONS
ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE AT LEAST MARGINALLY UNSTABLE WITH SURFACE
DEW POINTS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S. ANY CONVECTION
SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LOW TOPPED. HOWEVER, ENOUGH SHEAR IS EXPECTED
TO BE PRESENT TO RESULT IN SOME ORGANIZED STORMS WITH STRONG WIND
GUSTS POSSIBLE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES MAY GET UP INTO THE 1.8
INCH RANGE AND THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL.
SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT FOR FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN TO
DROP BACK TOWARD NEAR NORMAL LEVELS FOR MID OCTOBER.
A LONG WAVE MID LEVEL TROUGH IS ANTICIPATED TO SETTLE OVER THE
EASTERN STATES FOR NEXT WEEKEND ALONG WITH THE ARRIVAL OF AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE BOUNDARY IS NOT EXPECTED TO
HAVE MUCH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THIS AFTERNOON...MVFR CEILINGS OVERALL. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SOME
MVFR CEILINGS IMPROVE TO VFR FOR A TIME. SOME SPRINKLES AND SHOWERS
WILL BE AROUND, AND AMENDMENTS WILL BE ISSUED IF ANY VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS 5-8 KNOTS.
TONIGHT...MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD LOWER TO AREAS OF IFR. WHILE THERE
COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS IN THE EVENING, SOME DRIZZLE SHOULD THEN
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF KPHL. AS THE MOISTURE
INCREASES, SOME FOG IS EXPECTED WITH VISIBILITIES LOCALLY LOWERING
TO IFR LATE. OUR CONFIDENCE REGARDING THE FOG IS LOWER GIVEN THE
CLOUD COVER THAT IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT MANY TERMINALS.
TUESDAY...OVERALL CONDITIONS MVFR/IFR IN THE MORNING, THEN
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR SHOULD OCCUR. A SHOWER OR SOME DRIZZLE IS
POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE MORNING, ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF KPHL.
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH SOME LOCAL
AFTERNOON GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...CONDITIONS VARYING
BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY RESULT IN AREAS OF
IFR. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS, MAINLY AROUND KRDG AND KABE.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...CONDITIONS VARYING BETWEEN MVFR
AND VFR IN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE RAIN MAY
BECOME HEAVY. IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
THURSDAY NIGHT...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH CONDITIONS FORECAST TO
IMPROVE TO ALL VFR.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY GUST AROUND
20 KNOTS LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
AROUND 3-4 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY MORNING...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY
BECOME NECESSARY ON OUR OCEAN WATERS WITH WAVES EXPECTED TO BUILD
TO 5 TO 7 FEET IN A PERSISTENT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW. ALSO, WIND
GUSTS MAY APPROACH 25 KNOTS FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...KLINE/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1002 AM EDT MON OCT 13 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY OUT TO SEA THROUGH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. A
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY, AND
IT SHOULD PASS THROUGH OUR REGION ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO NOSE INTO OUR AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST FOR FRIDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST IS ANTICIPATED TO ARRIVE
OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH THE MID MORNING UPDATE, WE INCREASED POPS ACROSS OUR DELMARVA
ZONES TO REFLECT THE SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. THIS IS NOT ONLY SUPPORTED BY CURRENT RADAR DATA, BUT THIS
IS ALSO THE AREA WHERE THE RAP AND THE HRRR MOST HINT AT
MEASURABLE PRECIP FOR OUR REGION THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. MOST
LOCATIONS WILL RECEIVE A COUPLE OF HUNDREDTHS TO AROUND A TENTH OF
AN INCH OF PRECIP. IN ADDITION, WE BACKED OFF ON THE POSSIBILITY
FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR OUR FAR NORTHWEST ZONES FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AND INSTEAD WENT WITH SPRINKLES AS BOTH RADAR AND MODEL DATA
INDICATE LITTLE IF ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP THROUGH MIDDAY. OVERCAST
SKIES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY,
AND NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO MAX TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME. WE
DID TWEAK HOURLY TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS USING THE LAV/LAMP GUIDANCE
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE OF
THE NORTHEAST STATES THROUGH TODAY, WHICH WILL KEEP A SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP THE
LOW LEVELS MOIST, LEADING TO OVERCAST SKIES THROUGH THE DAY. THERE
IS SOME VERY WEAK LIFT MOVING THROUGH DURING THE DAY AS SOME WEAK
VORTICITY SLIDES INTO THE AREA, SO THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED-
SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. QPF AMOUNTS ARE LIGHT, SO ANY
RAIN SHOULD ONLY AMOUNT TO A COUPLE OF HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OVERALL.
WE DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE TODAY, SO WE DO NOT
EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TODAY. A BLEND OF MET/MAV MOS AND
MOSGUIDE WAS USED, WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER EMPHASIS ON THE COOLER
MET.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
THE HIGH PRESSURE DOES NOT MOVE MUCH THROUGH TONIGHT, REMAINING
OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL KEEP CLOUDY SKIES AND PLENTY
OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FLOWING ACROSS THE AREA. THERE WILL REMAIN A
CHANCE OF RAIN OVERNIGHT AS ANOTHER WEAK PIECE OF VORTICITY SLIDES
ACROSS THE AREA. QPF AMOUNTS REMAIN LIGHT, SO ANY RAIN SHOULD ONLY
AMOUNT TO A COUPLE OF HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. WITH THE AMOUNT OF
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE, IT`S ALSO POSSIBLE WE MAY ALSO SEE SOME PATCHY
DRIZZLE OR FOG DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT, ESPECIALLY FOR THE
NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A MID LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN
NORTH ATLANTIC ON TUESDAY WITH A CUT OFF LOW CENTERED OVER THE
SAINT LOUIS VICINITY. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT OVER INDIANA
FOR WEDNESDAY.
WE EXPECT OUR REGION TO GET INTO THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE NEAR OR A BIT ABOVE 80 DEGREES IN MUCH OF
OUR REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON BOTH DAYS IN THE
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH SURFACE FLOW.
THERE IS A LOW OR SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS
OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. ALSO, THE
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGHOUT OUR REGION MAY RESULT IN
PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION APPROACHING FROM THE WEST IS
ANTICIPATED TO MAKE SLOW PROGRESS INTO OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
THE MID LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO LIFT OVER MICHIGAN AND LAKES
HURON AND SUPERIOR DURING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO PULL A NEGATIVE TILT TROUGH OVER OUR REGION ON
THURSDAY NIGHT.
WE ARE FORECASTING AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH OUR MOST LIKELY TIME FOR PRECIPITATION BEING FROM LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED TO LINGER
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT UNTIL THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS CLEARS OUR
REGION.
WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH THIS ROBUST SYSTEM. CONDITIONS
ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE AT LEAST MARGINALLY UNSTABLE WITH SURFACE
DEW POINTS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S. ANY CONVECTION
SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LOW TOPPED. HOWEVER, ENOUGH SHEAR IS EXPECTED
TO BE PRESENT TO RESULT IN SOME ORGANIZED STORMS WITH STRONG WIND
GUSTS POSSIBLE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES MAY GET UP INTO THE 1.8
INCH RANGE AND THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL.
SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT FOR FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN TO
DROP BACK TOWARD NEAR NORMAL LEVELS FOR MID OCTOBER.
A LONG WAVE MID LEVEL TROUGH IS ANTICIPATED TO SETTLE OVER THE
EASTERN STATES FOR NEXT WEEKEND ALONG WITH THE ARRIVAL OF AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE BOUNDARY IS NOT EXPECTED TO
HAVE MUCH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
REST OF TODAY...VFR TO MVFR CEILINGS OVERALL. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT
ANY MVFR CEILINGS IMPROVE TO VFR FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW
SPRINKLES OR SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND ESPECIALLY FROM ABOUT KPHL ON
SOUTHWARD, HOWEVER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE AND THEREFORE NOT
INCLUDED IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS,
BECOMING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST 5-8 KNOTS.
TONIGHT...MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD LOWER TO AREAS OF IFR. WHILE THERE
COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS, SOME DRIZZLE MAY DEVELOP ESPECIALLY NORTH
AND WEST OF KPHL. AS THE MOISTURE INCREASES, SOME FOG SHOULD DEVELOP
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR VISIBILITIES TO LOWER TO IFR. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT MANY TERMINALS.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY MORNING...CONDITIONS VARYING BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR. LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG ARE POSSIBLE AND CONDITIONS MAY DROP INTO THE IFR
RANGE FOR A TIME. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS, MAINLY AROUND KRDG AND
KABE.
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY EVENING...MAINLY VFR.
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...CONDITIONS VARYING
BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY RESULT IN AREAS OF
IFR. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS, MAINLY AROUND KRDG AND KABE.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...CONDITIONS VARYING BETWEEN MVFR
AND VFR IN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE RAIN MAY
BECOME HEAVY. IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
THURSDAY NIGHT...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH CONDITIONS FORECAST TO
IMPROVE TO ALL VFR.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY GUST AROUND
20 KNOTS LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
AROUND 3-4 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY MORNING...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY
BECOME NECESSARY ON OUR OCEAN WATERS WITH WAVES EXPECTED TO BUILD
TO 5 TO 7 FEET IN A PERSISTENT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW. ALSO, WIND
GUSTS MAY APPROACH 25 KNOTS FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...KLINE/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
335 AM EDT MON OCT 13 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
07Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE ANTICIPATED BIG
PATTERN AMPLIFICATION IS WELL UNDERWAY. POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY HAS
DROPPED SOUTH OVER THE ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND HAS
CARVED OUT A DEEP AND SHARP TROUGH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY THROUGH THE DAY AS IT
SLOWLY PROGRESSES EASTWARD TOWARD THE MS VALLEY. WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH WILL BE SEVERE...WILL PRECEDE THIS
FEATURE ALONG AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SURGING EASTWARD. THIS FRONT
WILL EVENTUALLY ARRIVE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TUESDAY
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS QUITE LOW FOR
OUR FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
DOWNSTREAM THE FLOW RIDGES BACK UP ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE FLORIDA PENINSULA IS STILL UNDER THE CONTROL
OF THIS UPPER RIDGE...HOWEVER THE RIDGE AXIS IS BEGINNING TO SHIFT
EAST OF US...AND ALLOW SOME HIGHER LEVEL MOISTURE BACK OVER THE
REGION AS SEEN IN WV IMAGERY. DID SEE A FEW STORMS POP UP DOWN
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA THIS PAST EVENING ALONG A SLOWLY
NORTHWARD RETREATING MOISTURE GRADIENT...REACHING AS FAR NORTH AS
LEE COUNTY. THIS GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SLOWLY NORTH ALONG
THE FLORIDA WEST COAST TODAY...HOWEVER THE REAL DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
SURGE STILL LOOKS TO OVERTAKE THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION TONIGHT.
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
RIDGES ALL THE WAY DOWN THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD TO OUR REGION. A
DEEPENING CYCLONE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ASSOCIATED
WITH THE DIGGING SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD TODAY WHILE ITS
TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES EASTWARD TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
MONDAY WILL BE THE TRANSITION DAY BETWEEN THE DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER
MOST OF US HAVE EXPERIENCE FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW...AND THE NEXT
WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCE ARRIVING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE SHARPNESS AND DEEPNESS OF THE UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST WILL
ACTUALLY HELP OUR SITUATION FOR TODAY AS THE RAPID HEIGHT FALLS AND
PV REDISTRIBUTION OVER THE MS VALLEY WILL HELP FORCE AN
AMPLIFICATION / SHORTING OF THE WAVELENGTH TO THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE
IN CONTROL OF OUR REGION. ESSENTIALLY THIS WILL ALLOW THE RIDGE ONE
MORE FULL DAY TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER...AND HOLD BACK ANY
SIGNIFICANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE RETURN UNTIL TONIGHT. GOOD AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE GFS/NAM IN THE SHARP BACK EDGE OF THE RIDGE KEEPING THE
TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT ALONG THE SW FL COAST...AND THEN JUST
OFFSHORE OF THE NATURE COAST UP INTO WESTERN APALACHEE BAY. IT WILL
BE ALONG THIS MOISTURE GRADIENT WHERE THE BEST CHANCES OF
AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS WILL EXIST. NOW...MOISTURE IS ONLY PART OF
THE EQUATION. WE STILL NEED A TRIGGER FOR THE STORMS. CERTAINLY WE
ARE STILL UNDER THE RIDGE AND WELL REMOVED FROM ANY SYNOPTICS/LARGE
SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH TO OUR WEST...SO WILL NEED
SOMETHING MORE MESOSCALE. THE WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE ARE SIMPLY TOO
STRONG TO ALLOW FOR A DEFINED SEA-BREEZE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...WOULD STILL ANTICIPATE A WEAKENING OF THE WINDS ACROSS THE
NEAR SHORE WATERS IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONG TERRESTRIAL HEATING.
THIS WEAKENING OF THE WINDS WILL SET UP A ZONE OF SPEED CONVERGENCE
NEAR THE COAST AS THE STRONGER EAST TO WEST MIXED LAYER WINDS OVER
LAND BUMP UP AGAINST THE ZONE OF WEAKER MARINE WINDS.
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AMOUNT THE LAST 3-4 RUNS OF THE LOCAL HIRES
CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS IN THIS LATE DAY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SUNCOAST...UP AS FAR NORTH AS TAMPA BAY/PINELLAS
COUNTY. THIS IS ALSO VERY SIMILAR TO THE WHERE THE CONVECTIVE
SCHEMES ARE BEING TRIGGERED ON THE NAM AND MANY OF THE SREF ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS. WILL HAVE HIGHEST POPS 40-50% DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER THIS SPECIFIED AREA MENTIONED ABOVE...AND THEN TAPER
RAIN CHANCES QUICKLY FURTHER TO THE WEST INTO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
ZONES...AND ALSO NORTHWARD INTO THE NATURE COAST.
TEMPERATURES WORKED OUT WELL ON SUNDAY WITH UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90
AT MOST SPOTS. WILL CONTINUE THE SAME PHILOSOPHY OF TAKING A DEGREE
OR 2 OFF OF A MAV/MET BLEND TO ARRIVE AT A HIGH TEMPERATURE
FORECAST.
THE UPPER RIDGE FINALLY BEGINS TO LOSE INFLUENCE ON OUR REGION
TONIGHT...ALLOWING SLIGHT HEIGHT FALLS BY DAWN. WILL SEE A MORE
NORTHWARD AND EASTWARD PUSH TO THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE RETURN.
EVENING STORMS ALONG THE COAST WILL MIGRATE OFFSHORE AND THAT WILL
SET UP A MAINLY DRY OVERNIGHT PERIOD FOR OUR LAND ZONES...AS STILL
ANTICIPATE ANY APPRECIABLE SYNOPTIC SUPPORT FOR ASCENT TO REMAIN TO
WELL TO OUR WEST. HIGHER CHANCES FOR CONTINUED OR DEVELOPING
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL EXIST OVER THE GULF WATERS IN CLOSER PROXIMITY
TO THE MAIN SYNOPTICS OF THE TROUGH AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
TUESDAY WILL SEE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE FIRMLY IN PLACE OVER THE AREA.
GENERALLY SPEAKING THE MAIN BAND OF SHOWERS/STORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT WILL STILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...AS
WILL ANY SUBSTANTIAL HEIGHT FALLS / QG FORCING. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL
FLOW IS SHOWN TO BECOME SOMEWHAT CONVERGENT OVER THE
PENINSULA...WHILE ALOFT...THE EVOLVING JET STRUCTURE RESULTS IN WEAK
DIFFLUENCE. THEREFORE...THE COMBINATION OF ABUNDANT MOISTURE...
A WEAK LOW LEVEL AND UPPER LEVEL FOCUS MECHANISM...AND SOME ADDED
DIURNAL HEATING...SHOULD COMBINE TO TRIGGER SCT-NMRS SHOWERS AND
STORMS INTO THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. THESE STORMS ARE NOT LIKELY
TO BE ORGANIZED...BUT CERTAINLY COULD RESULT IN SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.
&&
.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH A SURFACE
REFLECTION TAILING A COLD FRONT THAT ARCS THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
AND ACROSS THE GULF TO THE YUCATAN...SLOWLY PUSHES EAST. IT REACHES
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THU WITH THE TRAILING
FRONT TRACKING ACROSS CENTRAL FL WED THEN INTO SOUTH FL THU. FRI
THROUGH SUN...THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKE
WHILE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL
CONUS...THEN SLIDES EAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN OVER THE
GULF...DOMINATING INTO THE WEEKEND.
THE FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF/CMC WHICH ARE ALL
VERY SIMILAR IN THEIR SOLUTIONS. DEEP SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO STREAM MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE GULF...AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...EARLY IN THE PERIOD. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS TUE NIGHT PUSH EASTWARD...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE MOVING
ACROSS DURING THE DAY AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO WEST CENTRAL FL.
PRECIPITATION TAPERS DOWN WED NIGHT THEN ENDS FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST DURING THU. THE RIDGING TO THE WEST WILL KEEP A DRY AND
SOMEWHAT COOLER AIRMASS IN PLACE FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. IN THIS
CASE COOLER MEANS TEMPERATURES DROP DOWN TO AROUND SEASONAL VALUES.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING AND ARE
EXPECTED TO GENERALLY CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WOULD BE BRIEF RESTRICTIONS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH SCT STORMS CLOSE TO THE COAST. MOST LIKELY
TERMINALS TO SEE A STORM WOULD BE FROM KFMY/KRSW TO KSRQ...WITH THE
LEAST CHANCE AT SEEING A STORM AT KLAL.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE DOWN THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD TO THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS RIDGING WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE EASTWARD
DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. AREAS OF CAUTIONARY LEVEL WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW 15
KNOTS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND THEN INCREASE BACK TO CAUTIONARY
LEVELS TONIGHT AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TUESDAY. THE COLD FRONT
WILL THEN CROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH IN ITS WAKE.
HIGH PRESSURE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR
THE LATER PORTION OF THE WEEK.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD CONTROL OF THE REGION FOR ONE MORE DAY
BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...A SLOW INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...HOWEVER WE WILL SEE HIGH DISPERSION INDICES
THE BOTH THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE COLD
FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARRIVING IN ITS WAKE FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 90 75 87 74 / 20 20 60 50
FMY 90 74 89 75 / 40 20 60 30
GIF 90 71 89 72 / 0 0 60 40
SRQ 89 74 87 73 / 40 40 60 50
BKV 91 72 87 71 / 10 10 60 50
SPG 89 77 87 76 / 30 40 60 50
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WX...MROCZKA
LONG TERM...RUDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
533 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
510 PM CDT
A SEGMENTED LINE OF STORMS FROM PONTIAC TO FAR SOUTHEAST IL WILL
MOVE NORTH-NORTHEAST THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...EVOLVING WITH THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE MOIST PLUME. WITHIN THIS OVERALL CONVECTIVE LINE
THERE HAVE BEEN A HANDFUL OF EMBEDDED MESOSCALE LINE-ECHO WAVE
PATTERNS IN CENTRAL IL...INCLUDING ONE WHICH PERSISTED FOR OVER AN
HOUR PRODUCING A REPORTED TORNADO NOT FAR FROM DECATUR. THIS
PARTICULAR CIRCULATION HAS SINCE WEAKENED...BUT FURTHER SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST THERE ARE REDEVELOPING CIRCULATIONS...AS WELL AS SOME
INFLOW KINKS IN STORM SEGMENTS THAT WILL BEAR WATCHING.
MODIFIED RAP SOUNDINGS FOR NEAR GIBSON CITY...WATSEKA...AND
KANKAKEE...INDICATE SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY OF A FEW HUNDRED
JOULES. THIS IS PRESENT THROUGH 7-8 PM AS LOW-LEVEL TEMPS AND
THETA-E ARE INCREASING AS ADVECTION DRIVES THE WARM SECTOR. THE
SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW UNDERNEATH A STRONG 45-55 KT LOW-LEVEL JET
SAMPLED BY AREA VAD PROFILERS WILL KEEP LOW-LEVEL SHEAR HIGH AND AT
LEAST KEEP SOME VORTICITY GENERATION POTENTIAL. IN ADDITION...LCLS
ARE LOW AT ONLY 2000-2500 FT. WHILE THE OVERALL THREAT REMAINS
ISOLATED...DEPENDING ON STORM TRENDS THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...THE
TORNADO WATCH MAY NEED TO BE LOCALLY EXPANDED INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA.
BESIDES CIRCULATIONS...THE SEGMENTS OF STORMS COULD SIMPLY BRING
ISOLATED STRONG WINDS GUSTS. HAVE SEEN THIS FURTHER SOUTH IN THE
ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL.
MTF
&&
.DISCUSSION...
258 PM CDT
THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SLOW MOVING CLOSED UPPER
LOW WHICH WILL RESULT IN WET AND ACTIVE WEATHER OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.
//SHORT TERM...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
THIS AFTERNOON...A DEEP TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
ACROSS CENTRAL CONUS WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW SPINNING AT THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI WITH A WARM FRONT DRAPED
ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS. DEWPOINTS IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE
OUTLOOK AREA ALONG THE WARM FRONT HAVE RISEN INTO THE MID/UPPER
60S WHERE A FEW HUNDRED J/KG CAPE IS PRESENT. THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...STRENGTHENING WINDS ALOFT
ARE EXPECTED WITH BOTH THE UPPER JET AND LOW LEVEL JET WHICH WILL
RESULT IN STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES AND STRONG MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION WITH PWATS RISING TO BETWEEN 1.6 AND 1.7
INCHES BY THIS EVENING. THE SURFACE LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT NE OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO WITH WHAT SHOULD BE TWO AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN
BIFURCATING THE CWA. THE FIRST AXIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP
AND PERSISTENT AREA OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND STRONG MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ON THE NOSE OF A LOW LEVEL JET WHICH WILL STRETCH FROM
ROUGHLY SOUTH CENTRAL IA INTO NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL IL THEN
CENTRAL WI. PRECIPITATION INTENSITY WITH THIS AREA SHOULD PEAK
OVER NORTH CENTRAL IL THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MID EVENING...THEN
THE BETTER FORCING WILL SHIFT NORTH INTO WISCONSIN THEREAFTER. THE
SECOND AREA OF CONCERN STRETCHES FROM FAR EAST CENTRAL IL/NW
INDIANA WHERE VERY MODEST INSTABILITY AND STRONG SHEAR WILL
SUPPORT LINEAR CONVECTION. GIVEN THE MOIST SOUNDINGS...THESE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. WHILE
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY...
ESPECIALLY AS WE MOVE BEYOND MOST FAVORABLE DIURNAL TIMING...THERE
IS A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH THE MAIN CONCERN BEING DAMAGING
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. ENHANCED HELICITY NEAR THE WARM FROM WILL
ALSO PROMOTE A LOW END TORNADO THREAT THIS EVENING. THE HEART OF
THE CWA INCLUDING THE CHICAGO METRO AREA MAY BE SPARED SOME OF THE
HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS BUT STILL EXPECT PERIODS OF RAIN AND
DRIZZLE AT TIMES THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO BE OVER WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. MID LEVEL RH FIELDS INDICATE THAT THE DRY SLOT WILL
ROTATE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY TUESDAY. WITH THE LOSS OF THE
DEEPER MOISTURE...EXPECT PRECIP TO TAPER TO A LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE
FOR A PERIOD EARLY TUESDAY...THEN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY THE
DEFORMATION ZONE WILL SLOWLY TRANSLATE ACROSS THE AREA WITH PRECIP
PICKING UP AGAIN. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED
TO BE IN NORTHWEST INDIANA. DESPITE HEIGHTS BUILDING ALOFT AND
WARMING/DRYING IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN
CYCLONIC WITH NEAR SATURATED CONDITIONS SUPPORTING CONTINUED
POSSIBILITY FOR DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. LOW LEVEL FLOW STARTS TO BECOME
ANTICYCLONIC ON THURSDAY AND SHOULD ALLOW SKIES TO SCATTER OUT AND
FOR PRECIP TO END.
//LONG TERM...
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMANATING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS
PROGGED TO MERGE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON THURSDAY...AND EVENTUALLY DRIVING A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THE AIRMASS IS PRETTY DRY OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO CHANCE
FOR PRECIP ARE PRETTY LOW. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT
AND SHOULD RESULT IN CONTINUED COOL BUT DRIER WEATHER REST OF THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BMD
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 22Z...
* PERIODS OF SHRA/POSSIBLE TSRA THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH
PREVAILING MVFR
* SOUTHEASTERLY UP TO 20KT BECMG A BIT MORE SOUTHERLY WITH GUSTS
20-25KT
* WINDS SHIFTING TO NELY TOMORROW AFTERNOON
IZZI
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTH ACROSS THE
REGION AS A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI,
A WEAK WARM FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS CNTRL IL/IN FROM THE LOW...WITH
MVFR/IFR CIGS AND ISOLD SHRA NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...WITH HIGHER
MVFR CIGS TO THE SOUTH. CIGS HAVE BEEN BOUNCING ALL OVER THE PLACE
WITH RESPECT TO BASES TODAY...AND THIS TREND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. SO...IN
GENERAL...HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND DURATION OF WHEN
BASES WILL BE VFR...MVFR OR IFR. OCNL REDUCED VISIBILITY TO 4-5SM
IN SHRA WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
AS THE SFC LOW SLOWLY TRACKS NEWD THE WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH
OF THE TERMINALS...VEERING WINDS GRADUALLY TROUGH SELY TO SLY
OVERNIGHT WHILE ALSO STRENGTHENING. GUSTS UP TO 20KT ARE LIKELY
WAS WINDS TURN SELY...AND 25KT OR HIGHER LATER TONIGHT WITH
INCREASING PRESSURE FALLS AND A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE LOW. THERE IS EVEN A CHANCE FOR SOME
STRONGER GUSTS TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AROUND ANY THUNDERSTORMS AS A
LOW LEVEL JET OF 50-60KT MOVES OVERHEAD AND SOME OF THIS STRONGER
WIND COULD HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO MIX DOWN TO THE SFC. ALSO AS THE
SFC LOW APPROACHES...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION...BUT THE GREATEST CHANGE FOR ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD GENERALLY BE SOUTH OF A LINE FROM VPZ TO PNT.
SOME ISOLATED...EMBEDDED THUNDER IS POSSIBLE NORTH OF THIS
LINE...BUT WILL KEEP ANY MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE
TAFS...EXCEPT FOR GYY...AS ANY TS WILL LIKELY HAVE A VERY SPARSE
COVERAGE.
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT
AND AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OVER CNTRL IL TOMORROW...A SLOT OF DRY
AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION...SHUTTING OFF THE HEAVIER RAIN
POTENTIAL AND SETTING UP A PERIOD OF DRIZZLE AND LOW STRATUS INTO
THE LATE MORNING HOURS TOMORROW. A WIND SHIFT TO NELY WILL TAKE
PLACE TOMORROW AS THE SFC LOW SLOWLY TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION.
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATE THAT THE WIND SHIFT WILL OCCUR AT RFD BY ARND
12-13Z TOMORROW MORNING...BUT NOT UNTIL THE LATE AFTERNOON FOR THE
CHICAGO AREA TERMINALS. THIS WILL NOT BE THE END OF THE PCPN
POTENTIAL AS MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE SYSTEM WILL BRING MORE
WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM RAIN AND IFR-MVFR CIGS AT LEAST INTO
TOMORROW EVENING.
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 22Z...
* MEDIUM CONFINDENCE IN PRIMARILY MVFR CIGS THIS EVENING
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP TRENDS THIS EVENING...MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP FORECAST LATE TONIGHT/TUESDAY
* MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS
IZZI
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
TUESDAY NIGHT...OCNL -SHRA. MVFR CIGS LIKELY. STRONG NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS POSSIBLE.
WEDNESDAY...OCNL -SHRA. MVFR CIGS PROBABLE...SMALL CHANCE OF IFR
CIGS.
THURSDAY...SMALL CHANCE OF -SHRA...PREDOMINANTLY VFR.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...PREDOMINANTLY VFR.
BEACHLER
&&
.MARINE...
315 PM CDT
STRONG LOW PRESSURE LIFTING OUT OF MISSOURI LATE THIS AFTERNOON
HAS A WARM SECTOR THAT IS QUICKLY MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS ILLINOIS
AND INDIANA. THIS WILL REACH THE FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE LAKE BY
SUNSET...LEADING TO SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA WINDS. THE WINDS MAY BE
THE STRONGEST THIS EVENING ON THE INDIANA SHORE GIVEN THE OFFSHORE
COMPONENT...WHILE THE WAVES BUILDING THE QUICKEST ON THE ILLINOIS
SHORE WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW. DENSE FOG WILL LIKELY EASE QUICKLY
OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE LAKE INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH THIS INCREASING FLOW...AS WELL AS RAIN MOVING
OVER THE LAKE HELPING TO MIX THE MARINE LAYER.
AS THE LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE LAKE IT WILL SLOW AS WELL AS
GRADUALLY EXPAND. THIS MAKES IT CHALLENGING FOR WINDS AS THE WARM
FRONTAL PORTION OF THIS LOW /SEPARATING NORTHEAST WINDS FROM
SOUTHEAST/ WILL EXTEND OVER THE LAKE AND WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN
TOO. THIS DEMARKATION IN WINDS WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PART OF THE LAKE DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AND THEN GRADUALLY FADE
INTO THE DAY WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING NORTHERLY WINDS TO ENVELOP
SOUTHWARD. THIS COULD HAPPEN MORE QUICKLY THOUGH WHICH WOULD LEAD
TO SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA WAVES AND POSSIBLY WINDS INTO THE ILLINOIS
NEARSHORE LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING.
IN ADDITION...IT IS POSSIBLE TEMPORARY NORTHEAST GALES COULD BE
EXPERIENCED ON THE NORTHERN PART OF THE LAKE TUESDAY NORTH OF THE
WARM FRONT.
MTF
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 5 AM TUESDAY.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-
LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-
LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 9 PM MONDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
513 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
510 PM CDT
A SEGMENTED LINE OF STORMS FROM PONTIAC TO FAR SOUTHEAST IL WILL
MOVE NORTH-NORTHEAST THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...EVOLVING WITH THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE MOIST PLUME. WITHIN THIS OVERALL CONVECTIVE LINE
THERE HAVE BEEN A HANDFUL OF EMBEDDED MESOSCALE LINE-ECHO WAVE
PATTERNS IN CENTRAL IL...INCLUDING ONE WHICH PERSISTED FOR OVER AN
HOUR PRODUCING A REPORTED TORNADO NOT FAR FROM DECATUR. THIS
PARTICULAR CIRCULATION HAS SINCE WEAKENED...BUT FURTHER SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST THERE ARE REDEVELOPING CIRCULATIONS...AS WELL AS SOME
INFLOW KINKS IN STORM SEGMENTS THAT WILL BEAR WATCHING.
MODIFIED RAP SOUNDINGS FOR NEAR GIBSON CITY...WATSEKA...AND
KANKAKEE...INDICATE SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY OF A FEW HUNDRED
JOULES. THIS IS PRESENT THROUGH 7-8 PM AS LOW-LEVEL TEMPS AND
THETA-E ARE INCREASING AS ADVECTION DRIVES THE WARM SECTOR. THE
SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW UNDERNEATH A STRONG 45-55 KT LOW-LEVEL JET
SAMPLED BY AREA VAD PROFILERS WILL KEEP LOW-LEVEL SHEAR HIGH AND AT
LEAST KEEP SOME VORTICITY GENERATION POTENTIAL. IN ADDITION...LCLS
ARE LOW AT ONLY 2000-2500 FT. WHILE THE OVERALL THREAT REMAINS
ISOLATED...DEPENDING ON STORM TRENDS THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...THE
TORNADO WATCH MAY NEED TO BE LOCALLY EXPANDED INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA.
BESIDES CIRCULATIONS...THE SEGMENTS OF STORMS COULD SIMPLY BRING
ISOLATED STRONG WINDS GUSTS. HAVE SEEN THIS FURTHER SOUTH IN THE
ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL.
MTF
&&
.DISCUSSION...
258 PM CDT
THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SLOW MOVING CLOSED UPPER
LOW WHICH WILL RESULT IN WET AND ACTIVE WEATHER OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.
//SHORT TERM...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
THIS AFTERNOON...A DEEP TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
ACROSS CENTRAL CONUS WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW SPINNING AT THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI WITH A WARM FRONT DRAPED
ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS. DEWPOINTS IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE
OUTLOOK AREA ALONG THE WARM FRONT HAVE RISEN INTO THE MID/UPPER
60S WHERE A FEW HUNDRED J/KG CAPE IS PRESENT. THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...STRENGTHENING WINDS ALOFT
ARE EXPECTED WITH BOTH THE UPPER JET AND LOW LEVEL JET WHICH WILL
RESULT IN STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES AND STRONG MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION WITH PWATS RISING TO BETWEEN 1.6 AND 1.7
INCHES BY THIS EVENING. THE SURFACE LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT NE OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO WITH WHAT SHOULD BE TWO AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN
BIFURCATING THE CWA. THE FIRST AXIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP
AND PERSISTENT AREA OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND STRONG MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ON THE NOSE OF A LOW LEVEL JET WHICH WILL STRETCH FROM
ROUGHLY SOUTH CENTRAL IA INTO NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL IL THEN
CENTRAL WI. PRECIPITATION INTENSITY WITH THIS AREA SHOULD PEAK
OVER NORTH CENTRAL IL THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MID EVENING...THEN
THE BETTER FORCING WILL SHIFT NORTH INTO WISCONSIN THEREAFTER. THE
SECOND AREA OF CONCERN STRETCHES FROM FAR EAST CENTRAL IL/NW
INDIANA WHERE VERY MODEST INSTABILITY AND STRONG SHEAR WILL
SUPPORT LINEAR CONVECTION. GIVEN THE MOIST SOUNDINGS...THESE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. WHILE
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY...
ESPECIALLY AS WE MOVE BEYOND MOST FAVORABLE DIURNAL TIMING...THERE
IS A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH THE MAIN CONCERN BEING DAMAGING
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. ENHANCED HELICITY NEAR THE WARM FROM WILL
ALSO PROMOTE A LOW END TORNADO THREAT THIS EVENING. THE HEART OF
THE CWA INCLUDING THE CHICAGO METRO AREA MAY BE SPARED SOME OF THE
HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS BUT STILL EXPECT PERIODS OF RAIN AND
DRIZZLE AT TIMES THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO BE OVER WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. MID LEVEL RH FIELDS INDICATE THAT THE DRY SLOT WILL
ROTATE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY TUESDAY. WITH THE LOSS OF THE
DEEPER MOISTURE...EXPECT PRECIP TO TAPER TO A LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE
FOR A PERIOD EARLY TUESDAY...THEN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY THE
DEFORMATION ZONE WILL SLOWLY TRANSLATE ACROSS THE AREA WITH PRECIP
PICKING UP AGAIN. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED
TO BE IN NORTHWEST INDIANA. DESPITE HEIGHTS BUILDING ALOFT AND
WARMING/DRYING IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN
CYCLONIC WITH NEAR SATURATED CONDITIONS SUPPORTING CONTINUED
POSSIBILITY FOR DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. LOW LEVEL FLOW STARTS TO BECOME
ANTICYCLONIC ON THURSDAY AND SHOULD ALLOW SKIES TO SCATTER OUT AND
FOR PRECIP TO END.
//LONG TERM...
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMANATING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS
PROGGED TO MERGE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON THURSDAY...AND EVENTUALLY DRIVING A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THE AIRMASS IS PRETTY DRY OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO CHANCE
FOR PRECIP ARE PRETTY LOW. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT
AND SHOULD RESULT IN CONTINUED COOL BUT DRIER WEATHER REST OF THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BMD
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...
* OCNL PERIODS MVFR/IFR CIGS AND MVFR VIS AS A STRONG STORM SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
* LIGHT WINDS SELY-ELY THROUGH ARND NOON...THEN BECMG SELY AND
INCRG TO 10-12KT.
* WINDS BECMG SELY AND INCREASING TO 12G18-20KT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...BECMG SLY AND INCRG TO 18G25KT OR POSSIBLY HIGHER
LATE EVENING TO LATE NIGHT TONIGHT.
* PERIODS OF RAIN...OCCASIONALLY HEAVY...FROM THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TOMORROW.
* WINDS SHIFTING TO NELY TOMORROW AFTERNOON FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE
OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER.
KREIN
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTH ACROSS THE
REGION AS A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI,
A WEAK WARM FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS CNTRL IL/IN FROM THE LOW...WITH
MVFR/IFR CIGS AND ISOLD SHRA NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...WITH HIGHER
MVFR CIGS TO THE SOUTH. CIGS HAVE BEEN BOUNCING ALL OVER THE PLACE
WITH RESPECT TO BASES TODAY...AND THIS TREND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. SO...IN
GENERAL...HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND DURATION OF WHEN
BASES WILL BE VFR...MVFR OR IFR. OCNL REDUCED VISIBILITY TO 4-5SM
IN SHRA WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
AS THE SFC LOW SLOWLY TRACKS NEWD THE WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH
OF THE TERMINALS...VEERING WINDS GRADUALLY TROUGH SELY TO SLY
OVERNIGHT WHILE ALSO STRENGTHENING. GUSTS UP TO 20KT ARE LIKELY
WAS WINDS TURN SELY...AND 25KT OR HIGHER LATER TONIGHT WITH
INCREASING PRESSURE FALLS AND A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE LOW. THERE IS EVEN A CHANCE FOR SOME
STRONGER GUSTS TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AROUND ANY THUNDERSTORMS AS A
LOW LEVEL JET OF 50-60KT MOVES OVERHEAD AND SOME OF THIS STRONGER
WIND COULD HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO MIX DOWN TO THE SFC. ALSO AS THE
SFC LOW APPROACHES...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION...BUT THE GREATEST CHANGE FOR ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD GENERALLY BE SOUTH OF A LINE FROM VPZ TO PNT.
SOME ISOLATED...EMBEDDED THUNDER IS POSSIBLE NORTH OF THIS
LINE...BUT WILL KEEP ANY MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE
TAFS...EXCEPT FOR GYY...AS ANY TS WILL LIKELY HAVE A VERY SPARSE
COVERAGE.
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT
AND AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OVER CNTRL IL TOMORROW...A SLOT OF DRY
AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION...SHUTTING OFF THE HEAVIER RAIN
POTENTIAL AND SETTING UP A PERIOD OF DRIZZLE AND LOW STRATUS INTO
THE LATE MORNING HOURS TOMORROW. A WIND SHIFT TO NELY WILL TAKE
PLACE TOMORROW AS THE SFC LOW SLOWLY TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION.
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATE THAT THE WIND SHIFT WILL OCCUR AT RFD BY ARND
12-13Z TOMORROW MORNING...BUT NOT UNTIL THE LATE AFTERNOON FOR THE
CHICAGO AREA TERMINALS. THIS WILL NOT BE THE END OF THE PCPN
POTENTIAL AS MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE SYSTEM WILL BRING MORE
WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM RAIN AND IFR-MVFR CIGS AT LEAST INTO
TOMORROW EVENING.
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN CIG TRENDS AND WITH BASES BOUNCING AROUND BTWN
MVFR AND IFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY INTO THE EVENING.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN VIS/PCPN TRENDS AND TIMING.
* MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT TS WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE TERMINALS.
* MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR/SPEED TRENDS...WITH MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING.
KREIN
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
TUESDAY NIGHT...OCNL -SHRA. MVFR CIGS LIKELY. STRONG NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS POSSIBLE.
WEDNESDAY...OCNL -SHRA. MVFR CIGS PROBABLE...SMALL CHANCE OF IFR
CIGS.
THURSDAY...SMALL CHANCE OF -SHRA...PREDOMINANTLY VFR.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...PREDOMINANTLY VFR.
BEACHLER
&&
.MARINE...
315 PM CDT
STRONG LOW PRESSURE LIFTING OUT OF MISSOURI LATE THIS AFTERNOON
HAS A WARM SECTOR THAT IS QUICKLY MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS ILLINOIS
AND INDIANA. THIS WILL REACH THE FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE LAKE BY
SUNSET...LEADING TO SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA WINDS. THE WINDS MAY BE
THE STRONGEST THIS EVENING ON THE INDIANA SHORE GIVEN THE OFFSHORE
COMPONENT...WHILE THE WAVES BUILDING THE QUICKEST ON THE ILLINOIS
SHORE WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW. DENSE FOG WILL LIKELY EASE QUICKLY
OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE LAKE INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH THIS INCREASING FLOW...AS WELL AS RAIN MOVING
OVER THE LAKE HELPING TO MIX THE MARINE LAYER.
AS THE LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE LAKE IT WILL SLOW AS WELL AS
GRADUALLY EXPAND. THIS MAKES IT CHALLENGING FOR WINDS AS THE WARM
FRONTAL PORTION OF THIS LOW /SEPARATING NORTHEAST WINDS FROM
SOUTHEAST/ WILL EXTEND OVER THE LAKE AND WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN
TOO. THIS DEMARKATION IN WINDS WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PART OF THE LAKE DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AND THEN GRADUALLY FADE
INTO THE DAY WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING NORTHERLY WINDS TO ENVELOP
SOUTHWARD. THIS COULD HAPPEN MORE QUICKLY THOUGH WHICH WOULD LEAD
TO SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA WAVES AND POSSIBLY WINDS INTO THE ILLINOIS
NEARSHORE LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING.
IN ADDITION...IT IS POSSIBLE TEMPORARY NORTHEAST GALES COULD BE
EXPERIENCED ON THE NORTHERN PART OF THE LAKE TUESDAY NORTH OF THE
WARM FRONT.
MTF
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 5 AM TUESDAY.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-
LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-
LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 9 PM MONDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
122 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014
.DISCUSSION...
1130 AM CDT
HAVE MADE SOME FINE TUNING ON START TIME TO RAIN THIS
AFTERNOON...ALL MOSTLY MINOR. NO SIGNIFICANT SHIFTS IN THINKING
FOR FORECAST OF THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF POTENTIALLY MORE ROBUST
STORMS OR RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND PLACEMENT TONIGHT.
THE WELL-DEFINED CLASSIC TRANSITION SEASON SYSTEM IS MOVING INTO
EASTERN OK WITH A MOIST CONVEYOR BELT RAPIDLY RACING EXTENDING
NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THIS WITHIN RAPIDLY INCREASING UPPER SUPPORT
FOR LIFT. THE SYSTEM LOW-LEVEL JET SAMPLED ON THE LSX VAD
PROFILER HAS STRENGTHENED SHARPLY THROUGH THE MORNING WITH 60 KT
OF FLOW AT 5000 FT. REGIONAL RADAR IS ALREADY SHOWING THE TREND OF
INCREASING ARCS OF SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL IL AND UP TO INTERSTATE
80. THIS WILL CONTINUE WITHIN THE MOIST ADVECTION PATTERN...WITH
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND PROBABLY SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER SUCH AS SEEN
IN WESTERN IL/SOUTHEAST IA/NORTHEAST MO BLOSSOMING INTO NORTH
CENTRAL IL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE DEEPER MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE. TEMPERATURES LIKELY WILL FLATLINE IN THESE PLACES
WHILE FURTHER EAST WHERE SOME BREAKS IN AFTERNOON SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL OCCUR...ADVECTION WILL STILL LIKELY SUPPORT A SLOW
TEMPERATURE CLIMB. ALONG THE NORTHEAST IL LAKE MI SHORE...INCLUDING
CHICAGO...THERE MAY BE SOME FINGERS OF DENSE FOG WITH THE ONSHORE
FLOW AND PERSISTENT FOG PER SATELLITE AND WEBCAM IMAGES.
THE 998MB LOW IN SOUTHWEST MO AT 11 AM IS FORECAST BY A MEAN OF
HIGH RES MODELS TO BE NEAR THE QUAD CITIES BY 10 PM AND HAVING
DEEPENED A COUPLE MORE MB. SUCH A PATH SUPPORTS THE WARM SECTOR
TO PUSH INTO THE SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
POSSIBLY NORTH OF I-80 THIS EVENING. THIS WILL BE DILUTED SOMEWHAT
WITH ALL THE SHOWER AN STORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...AND ALSO WITH THE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY OVER THE MID AND
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY /UPSTREAM IN LOW-LEVEL FLOW
TRAJECTORIES/. NONETHELESS...THERE IS A FAVORED WINDOW THIS
EVENING FOR STORMS AHEAD OF THE LOW TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
FORECAST AREA THAT COULD REALIZE SOME OF THE LOWEST
INSTABILITY...WHICH IS JUST OFF THE DECK ON HIGH-RES MODEL
SOUNDINGS. CONDITIONALLY IF A SEGMENT OF STORMS DOES DEVELOP AND
MOVE OVER THAT AREA THIS EVE...SHEAR PROFILES REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF
ORGANIZATION CAPABLE OF ISOLATED SEVERE WINDS AND A NON-ZERO BRIEF
TORNADO THREAT WITH BACKED INFLOW VECTORS. EFFICIENT RAINFALL WILL
CERTAINLY BE MORE REALIZED OVER A LARGER AREA...WITH SOME
LOCALIZED FLOODING NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WITH HIGHLY ANOMALOUS
VALUES OF MOISTURE AND ITS REPLENISHMENT LATE TODAY AND THIS
EVENING.
MTF
//PREV DISCUSSION...
345 AM CDT
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
FORECAST ISSUES THIS MORNING CONTINUE TO CENTER AROUND THE
SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY
SEVERE WEATHER...ESPECIALLY LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING...AND ALSO
WITH REGARDS TO WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL FALL...AND
IF ANY HYDRO CONDITIONS MAY ARISE.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS THE VIGOROUS MAIN
MID/UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE NOW BEGINNING TO MOVE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. A RAPID UPTAKE IN THE DYNAMIC
FORCING FOR ASCENT DOWNSTREAM OF THIS FEATURE CAN BE JUGGED JUST BY
THE SHEAR AMOUNT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT SPAWNED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS YESTERDAY EVENING.
SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN WIDELY SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA FOR MUCH OF
THE MORNING. HOWEVER...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD
INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AS A STRONG SURGE OF MOISTURE OCCURS ALONG TO THE NOSE OF A
DEVELOPING/STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET. THIS LOW LEVEL JET IS PROGGED
TO INCREASE TO 50 TO 60 KT BY EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE LOWER LEVEL
CIRCULATION STRENGTHENS OVER THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY. THIS ALL LOOKS
TO HAPPEN IN RESPONSE TO THE RAPIDLY CLOSING OFF MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION...AND ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
WITHIN THE VICINITY OF THE EXIT REGION OF A STRENGTHENING UPPER JET
IMPULSE OVER THE OZARKS.
THIS INCREASING WIND FIELD WILL PUMP IN UNSEASONABLY HIGH AMOUNTS OF
DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE...WITH MODEL PROGS STILL INDICATING
UPWARDS OF 1.6" PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...WHICH WOULD RANK WITHIN
THE 99 PERCENTILE FOR OCTOBER. THUS THIS WILL UNDOUBTEDLY SUPPORT
SOME HEFTY RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. THE BIG QUESTION...HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME CONTINUES
TO BE WHICH AREAS WILL BE FAVORED FOR THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SUGGESTING THAT ONE OF
THESE AREAS COULD BE PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND INTO
WISCONSIN...WHERE A DEFORMATION AXIS SHOULD SET UP THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. AS SUCH...STRONG MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND FGEN SHOULD
SET UP HERE ALONG THE NOSE OF THE LOWER LEVEL JET LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SUPPORTING A GOOD SOAKING MODERATE RAINFALL.
A GOOD 1 TO 2 INCHES COULD FALL IN THIS AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS...LIKELY CONTAINING VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL...SHOULD DEVELOP OVER MISSOURI LATER TODAY...THEN SHIFT
EASTWARD ACROSS ILLINOIS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY
COULD RESULT IN PERIODS OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN SECTIONS OF MY AREA TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME
I DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE ANY TYPE OF FLOOD
WATCH...AS GUIDANCE IS UNCERTAIN IN HOW FAR EASTWARD THE MID LEVEL
DRY SLOT WILL REACH TONIGHT...WHICH WILL HAVE LARGE IMPLICATIONS ON
THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL THAT FALLS ACROSS THIS AREA. THIS AREA WILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME HYDRO
ISSUES...ESPECIALLY IF ANY INDIVIDUAL STORMS TENDS TO TRAIN
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE SAME AREAS.
IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT...SOME SEVERE STORMS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE ACROSS MY SOUTHERN COUNTIES ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND
NORTHWESTERN INDIANA AND POINTS SOUTH. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE
WEAK...WITH PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY...THE LARGE AMOUNTS
OF LOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR COULD SUPPORT A LOW END THREAT FOR
STRONG DAMAGING WINDS AND OR A TORNADO OR TWO...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY
ORGANIZED ACTIVE THAT MOVES OVER THESE AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE HIGH DEWPOINT AIR WILL LIKELY LEAD TO LITTLE IF ANY
BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING THIS EVENING...SO THIS THREAT COULD EXTEND
INTO THE EVENING. HOWEVER...THE BETTER CHANCES OF SEVERE STORMS
LOOKS TO REMAIN FARTHER SOUTH OF THE AREA.
THE UPPER LOW STILL LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME PERIODS OF SHOWERS
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY.
KJB
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
500MB TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN...HOWEVER
SOME WEAK RIDGING ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC WILL LIKELY SLOW THE
DEPARTURE OF THE TROUGH. GUIDANCE THEN SUGGESTS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES FRI AND ARRIVE OVER
CENTRAL ONTARIO/NORTHERN GREAT LAKES LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SAT. THEN
HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR A STRONGER WAVE/TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. THIS COULD RESULT IN SHIFTING THE BUILDING WESTERN CONUS
RIDGE FURTHER EAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY THE FOLLOWING
WEEK. OUTSIDE OF SOME OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN THE CURRENT
EXTENDED PERIODS...THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY NOTABLE SYSTEMS
POISED TO IMPACT THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO GENERALLY BE IN
THE 60S...HOWEVER WITH INCREASED CLOUDS AND THE WEEKEND SHORTWAVE
SYSTEM...TEMPS COULD STRUGGLE TO WARM BEYOND THE 50S SAT/SUN.
BEACHLER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* OCNL PERIODS MVFR/IFR CIGS AND MVFR VIS AS A STRONG STORM SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
* LIGHT WINDS SELY-ELY THROUGH ARND NOON...THEN BECMG SELY AND
INCRG TO 10-12KT.
* WINDS BECMG SELY AND INCREASING TO 12G18-20KT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...BECMG SLY AND INCRG TO 18G25KT OR POSSIBLY HIGHER
LATE EVENING TO LATE NIGHT TONIGHT.
* PERIODS OF RAIN...OCCASIONALLY HEAVY...FROM THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TOMORROW.
* WINDS SHIFTING TO NELY TOMORROW AFTERNOON FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE
OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER.
KREIN
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTH ACROSS THE
REGION AS A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI,
A WEAK WARM FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS CNTRL IL/IN FROM THE LOW...WITH
MVFR/IFR CIGS AND ISOLD SHRA NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...WITH HIGHER
MVFR CIGS TO THE SOUTH. CIGS HAVE BEEN BOUNCING ALL OVER THE PLACE
WITH RESPECT TO BASES TODAY...AND THIS TREND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. SO...IN
GENERAL...HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND DURATION OF WHEN
BASES WILL BE VFR...MVFR OR IFR. OCNL REDUCED VISIBILITY TO 4-5SM
IN SHRA WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
AS THE SFC LOW SLOWLY TRACKS NEWD THE WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH
OF THE TERMINALS...VEERING WINDS GRADUALLY TROUGH SELY TO SLY
OVERNIGHT WHILE ALSO STRENGTHENING. GUSTS UP TO 20KT ARE LIKELY
WAS WINDS TURN SELY...AND 25KT OR HIGHER LATER TONIGHT WITH
INCREASING PRESSURE FALLS AND A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE LOW. THERE IS EVEN A CHANCE FOR SOME
STRONGER GUSTS TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AROUND ANY THUNDERSTORMS AS A
LOW LEVEL JET OF 50-60KT MOVES OVERHEAD AND SOME OF THIS STRONGER
WIND COULD HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO MIX DOWN TO THE SFC. ALSO AS THE
SFC LOW APPROACHES...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION...BUT THE GREATEST CHANGE FOR ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD GENERALLY BE SOUTH OF A LINE FROM VPZ TO PNT.
SOME ISOLATED...EMBEDDED THUNDER IS POSSIBLE NORTH OF THIS
LINE...BUT WILL KEEP ANY MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE
TAFS...EXCEPT FOR GYY...AS ANY TS WILL LIKELY HAVE A VERY SPARSE
COVERAGE.
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT
AND AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OVER CNTRL IL TOMORROW...A SLOT OF DRY
AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION...SHUTTING OFF THE HEAVIER RAIN
POTENTIAL AND SETTING UP A PERIOD OF DRIZZLE AND LOW STRATUS INTO
THE LATE MORNING HOURS TOMORROW. A WIND SHIFT TO NELY WILL TAKE
PLACE TOMORROW AS THE SFC LOW SLOWLY TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION.
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATE THAT THE WIND SHIFT WILL OCCUR AT RFD BY ARND
12-13Z TOMORROW MORNING...BUT NOT UNTIL THE LATE AFTERNOON FOR THE
CHICAGO AREA TERMINALS. THIS WILL NOT BE THE END OF THE PCPN
POTENTIAL AS MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE SYSTEM WILL BRING MORE
WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM RAIN AND IFR-MVFR CIGS AT LEAST INTO
TOMORROW EVENING.
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN CIG TRENDS AND WITH BASES BOUNCING AROUND BTWN
MVFR AND IFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY INTO THE EVENING.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN VIS/PCPN TRENDS AND TIMING.
* MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT TS WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE TERMINALS.
* MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR/SPEED TRENDS...WITH MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING.
KREIN
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
TUESDAY NIGHT...OCNL -SHRA. MVFR CIGS LIKELY. STRONG NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS POSSIBLE.
WEDNESDAY...OCNL -SHRA. MVFR CIGS PROBABLE...SMALL CHANCE OF IFR
CIGS.
THURSDAY...SMALL CHANCE OF -SHRA...PREDOMINANTLY VFR.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...PREDOMINANTLY VFR.
BEACHLER
&&
.MARINE...
219 AM CDT
MAIN CONCERN RESIDES WITH THE WINDS IN THE NEARSHORE FOR
TONIGHT...WHICH APPEARS TO BE BODERLINE SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. THEN
THE GRADIENT QUICKLY DIMINISHES ARND DAYBREAK TUE...HOWEVER THIS
LOOKS TO ONLY BE TEMPORARY. TUE NGT ONCE THE LOW DRIFTS EAST OF
THE LAKE...THE GRADIENT IS POISED TO QUICKLY RAMP BACK UP.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A PERIOD OF GALES WILL DEVELOP LATE
TUE EVENING THROUGH WED.
LOW PRESSURE EARLY THIS MORNING REMAINS WELL SOUTH OF LAKE
MICHIGAN NEAR CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...HOWEVER THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO
STEADILY DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI BY
MID-MORNING. WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE LAKE WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHEAST...WHICH SHOULD BE ABLE TO
BUILD THE WAVES ALONG THE ILLINOIS NEARSHORE. THE WILDCARD IS THAT
WITH WARMER AIR FLOWING OVER THE LAKE THIS MAY RESULT IN WINDS NOT
EFFECTIVELY REACHING THE SFC. EARLIER GUIDANCE WAS INDICATING THAT
WINDS COULD BE STRONGER...BUT HAVE BEGUN TO BACK OFF FROM THIS FOR
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE LAKE. THEN AS THE LOW DRIFTS EAST OF
THE LAKE...THE GRADIENT QUICKLY INCREASES FROM THE NORTH TO SOUTH
TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS APPEARS TO BE A FAVORABLE
PERIOD WHEN GALES TO 35KT MAY OCCUR. THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS ON
THE WINDS BEING 30KT. HAVE HELD OFF ON A GALE WATCH AT THIS
TIME...BUT COULD SEE ONE BEING NEEDED FOR TUE NGT/WED. WAVES WILL
EASILY BUILD. THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE LAKE HAVE THE
BEST CHANCE TO SEE GALE FORCE GUSTS. EXPECT WAVES TO INCREASE
CONSIDERABLY...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A NORTHERLY
FETCH OF WINDS CONTINUES FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME. THE LOW
EVENTUALLY FILLS AND GETS KICKED EAST BY ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA.
BEACHLER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 4 PM MONDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-
LMZ745...10 PM MONDAY TO 5 AM TUESDAY.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY...LMZ080-LMZ366-LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-
LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-
LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 9 PM MONDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1231 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1023 AM CDT MON OCT 13 2014
Leading warm front/boundary is steadily lifting northward across
the forecast area, extending roughly along a Quincy to Rantoul
line at 10 am. Visibilities have been steadily improving as the
front moves north, with only isolated areas below 2 miles left.
The big question remains with the potential for severe weather.
Line of storms currently in southeast Missouri extends all the way
into eastern Texas. 0-6km bulk shear already in the 50-60 knot
range along the Illinois/Missouri border and the RAP model shifts
this into central Illinois over the next few hours. Very little
sunshine if any to fuel the fire, with MUCAPE`s only rising into
the 500-1000 J/kg range, but the overall dynamics may be enough to
overcome this limitation. High-res models all agree in a narrow,
fast moving squall line, but have a spread of 2-6 hours in terms
of when the line actually moves through. Latest HRRR brings it as
early as 3 pm around Springfield, ranging to 6 pm with the NSSL
ARW and 8 pm with the 1km NAM nest. The northward movement of the
cells in Missouri would lead some credence to the earlier
solutions.
Have made some timing adjustments to the PoP`s in the grids
through tonight, and also added some mention of severe storms
across the south half of the area late afternoon/early evening.
Temperature trends currently on track.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT MON OCT 13 2014
High pressure ridge over both east and west coast with a deepening
and slow-moving trof dominating the Plains, moving into the
Midwest. Deepening surface low providing today`s storm system for
the region. Models pretty consistent in depicting this storm in
two main sections...with the frontal convection to the south and the
deformation zone wrapping around the NW side of the low just to
the north. Some issues with the forecast surrounding the placement
of pops to cover the trends with some uncertainty around the
timing and the depth of the dry slot. NAM and GFS all becoming
more pronounced with the dry air in the last run...and the ECMWF
coming into line as well. NSSL WRF even more aggressive with the
dry wedge...also far more showery with regards to the activity
into tonight. Under a slight risk for severe storms today, the
better shear profile to the south with the moderate risk in the
southern tip of the state and western KY...combined with a better
chance for temperature recovery from any showers over the area
this morning. This far north will be tough to scour out the
clouds, though any clearing should be watched closely for
re-energizing ahead of the system... priming for severe weather
activity.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT MON OCT 13 2014
Models have been very consistent in the last few runs with dropping
the wave into the region and cutting off the 500mb low, parking it
over the region through midweek. Tonight, the storm remains overhead
before wrapping up on itself. Threat for the stronger convection
shifts to the east before midnight... then the pops starting to
lessen with the impact of the dry slot building north into the
state. Exact location of the dry slot adding in some
uncertainty...though the precip after midnight, particularly to the
north and northwest may be dominated with mostly drizzle, but fairly
consistent enough to keep wet and plenty of low clouds through the
early morning hours.
Next couple of days will improve only slightly as the upper low
grows mostly stagnant over the region. Deformation zone starts to
lose structure as the low wraps up on Tuesday and convection from
the front races out ahead of the actual low. Cloudy, gray, showery
and cool conditions continue through Wednesday night under the
persistent cyclonic flow....likely to be dominated by rain without
thunder. Drying out on Thursday as the low finally gets kicked to
the east by another wave diving into the Great Lakes region. ECMWF
pushing a quick short wave into the region late Sun and into
Mon...GFS is dry, so the blend is starting to put some pops into the
forecast. Tempering them for now to low chance with the nature of a
fast short wave in NWrly flow on day 7/8...not a big concern at this
point.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014
Challenging TAF forecast for the next 24 hours. As of midday,
ceilings over most of the TAF sites have crept up to around
1200-1500 feet, but lower IFR/LIFR linger near KPIA. While a
widespread area of showers exists from KPIA-KSPI westward and more
isolated showers extend east, starting to see an increase in
lightning activity on the leading edge of the rain shield. High-
resolution model guidance sweep a fast moving line of storms east
across the state through about 02Z, although largely missing
KPIA/KBMI. The showers should taper off for a time during the
evening as a dry slot punches northeast into central Illinois, but
will likely see some drizzle/light fog until late night, at which
point wraparound shower will begin spreading back in from west to
east. Think that IFR/LIFR conditions are the way to go through the
night, with some improvement mid/late Tuesday morning.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Geelhart
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1130 AM CDT MON OCT 13 2014
.DISCUSSION...
1130 AM CDT
HAVE MADE SOME FINE TUNING ON START TIME TO RAIN THIS
AFTERNOON...ALL MOSTLY MINOR. NO SIGNIFICANT SHIFTS IN THINKING
FOR FORECAST OF THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF POTENTIALLY MORE ROBUST
STORMS OR RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND PLACEMENT TONIGHT.
THE WELL-DEFINED CLASSIC TRANSITION SEASON SYSTEM IS MOVING INTO
EASTERN OK WITH A MOIST CONVEYOR BELT RAPIDLY RACING EXTENDING
NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THIS WITHIN RAPIDLY INCREASING UPPER SUPPORT
FOR LIFT. THE SYSTEM LOW-LEVEL JET SAMPLED ON THE LSX VAD
PROFILER HAS STRENGTHENED SHARPLY THROUGH THE MORNING WITH 60 KT
OF FLOW AT 5000 FT. REGIONAL RADAR IS ALREADY SHOWING THE TREND OF
INCREASING ARCS OF SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL IL AND UP TO INTERSTATE
80. THIS WILL CONTINUE WITHIN THE MOIST ADVECTION PATTERN...WITH
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND PROBABLY SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER SUCH AS SEEN
IN WESTERN IL/SOUTHEAST IA/NORTHEAST MO BLOSSOMING INTO NORTH
CENTRAL IL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE DEEPER MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE. TEMPERATURES LIKELY WILL FLATLINE IN THESE PLACES
WHILE FURTHER EAST WHERE SOME BREAKS IN AFTERNOON SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL OCCUR...ADVECTION WILL STILL LIKELY SUPPORT A SLOW
TEMPERATURE CLIMB. ALONG THE NORTHEAST IL LAKE MI SHORE...INCLUDING
CHICAGO...THERE MAY BE SOME FINGERS OF DENSE FOG WITH THE ONSHORE
FLOW AND PERSISTENT FOG PER SATELLITE AND WEBCAM IMAGES.
THE 998MB LOW IN SOUTHWEST MO AT 11 AM IS FORECAST BY A MEAN OF
HIGH RES MODELS TO BE NEAR THE QUAD CITIES BY 10 PM AND HAVING
DEEPENED A COUPLE MORE MB. SUCH A PATH SUPPORTS THE WARM SECTOR
TO PUSH INTO THE SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
POSSIBLY NORTH OF I-80 THIS EVENING. THIS WILL BE DILUTED SOMEWHAT
WITH ALL THE SHOWER AN STORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...AND ALSO WITH THE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY OVER THE MID AND
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY /UPSTREAM IN LOW-LEVEL FLOW
TRAJECTORIES/. NONETHELESS...THERE IS A FAVORED WINDOW THIS
EVENING FOR STORMS AHEAD OF THE LOW TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
FORECAST AREA THAT COULD REALIZE SOME OF THE LOWEST
INSTABILITY...WHICH IS JUST OFF THE DECK ON HIGH-RES MODEL
SOUNDINGS. CONDITIONALLY IF A SEGMENT OF STORMS DOES DEVELOP AND
MOVE OVER THAT AREA THIS EVE...SHEAR PROFILES REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF
ORGANIZATION CAPABLE OF ISOLATED SEVERE WINDS AND A NON-ZERO BRIEF
TORNADO THREAT WITH BACKED INFLOW VECTORS. EFFICIENT RAINFALL WILL
CERTAINLY BE MORE REALIZED OVER A LARGER AREA...WITH SOME
LOCALIZED FLOODING NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WITH HIGHLY ANOMALOUS
VALUES OF MOISTURE AND ITS REPLENISHMENT LATE TODAY AND THIS
EVENING.
MTF
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
345 AM CDT
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
FORECAST ISSUES THIS MORNING CONTINUE TO CENTER AROUND THE
SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY
SEVERE WEATHER...ESPECIALLY LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING...AND ALSO
WITH REGARDS TO WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL FALL...AND
IF ANY HYDRO CONDITIONS MAY ARISE.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS THE VIGOROUS MAIN
MID/UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE NOW BEGINNING TO MOVE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. A RAPID UPTAKE IN THE DYNAMIC
FORCING FOR ASCENT DOWNSTREAM OF THIS FEATURE CAN BE JUGGED JUST BY
THE SHEAR AMOUNT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT SPAWNED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS YESTERDAY EVENING.
SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN WIDELY SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA FOR MUCH OF
THE MORNING. HOWEVER...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD
INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AS A STRONG SURGE OF MOISTURE OCCURS ALONG TO THE NOSE OF A
DEVELOPING/STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET. THIS LOW LEVEL JET IS PROGGED
TO INCREASE TO 50 TO 60 KT BY EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE LOWER LEVEL
CIRCULATION STRENGTHENS OVER THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY. THIS ALL LOOKS
TO HAPPEN IN RESPONSE TO THE RAPIDLY CLOSING OFF MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION...AND ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
WITHIN THE VICINITY OF THE EXIT REGION OF A STRENGTHENING UPPER JET
IMPULSE OVER THE OZARKS.
THIS INCREASING WIND FIELD WILL PUMP IN UNSEASONABLY HIGH AMOUNTS OF
DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE...WITH MODEL PROGS STILL INDICATING
UPWARDS OF 1.6" PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...WHICH WOULD RANK WITHIN
THE 99 PERCENTILE FOR OCTOBER. THUS THIS WILL UNDOUBTEDLY SUPPORT
SOME HEFTY RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. THE BIG QUESTION...HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME CONTINUES
TO BE WHICH AREAS WILL BE FAVORED FOR THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SUGGESTING THAT ONE OF
THESE AREAS COULD BE PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND INTO
WISCONSIN...WHERE A DEFORMATION AXIS SHOULD SET UP THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. AS SUCH...STRONG MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND FGEN SHOULD
SET UP HERE ALONG THE NOSE OF THE LOWER LEVEL JET LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SUPPORTING A GOOD SOAKING MODERATE RAINFALL.
A GOOD 1 TO 2 INCHES COULD FALL IN THIS AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS...LIKELY CONTAINING VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL...SHOULD DEVELOP OVER MISSOURI LATER TODAY...THEN SHIFT
EASTWARD ACROSS ILLINOIS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY
COULD RESULT IN PERIODS OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN SECTIONS OF MY AREA TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME
I DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE ANY TYPE OF FLOOD
WATCH...AS GUIDANCE IS UNCERTAIN IN HOW FAR EASTWARD THE MID LEVEL
DRY SLOT WILL REACH TONIGHT...WHICH WILL HAVE LARGE IMPLICATIONS ON
THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL THAT FALLS ACROSS THIS AREA. THIS AREA WILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME HYDRO
ISSUES...ESPECIALLY IF ANY INDIVIDUAL STORMS TENDS TO TRAIN
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE SAME AREAS.
IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT...SOME SEVERE STORMS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE ACROSS MY SOUTHERN COUNTIES ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND
NORTHWESTERN INDIANA AND POINTS SOUTH. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE
WEAK...WITH PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY...THE LARGE AMOUNTS
OF LOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR COULD SUPPORT A LOW END THREAT FOR
STRONG DAMAGING WINDS AND OR A TORNADO OR TWO...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY
ORGANIZED ACTIVE THAT MOVES OVER THESE AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE HIGH DEWPOINT AIR WILL LIKELY LEAD TO LITTLE IF ANY
BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING THIS EVENING...SO THIS THREAT COULD EXTEND
INTO THE EVENING. HOWEVER...THE BETTER CHANCES OF SEVERE STORMS
LOOKS TO REMAIN FARTHER SOUTH OF THE AREA.
THE UPPER LOW STILL LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME PERIODS OF SHOWERS
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY.
KJB
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
500MB TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN...HOWEVER
SOME WEAK RIDGING ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC WILL LIKELY SLOW THE
DEPARTURE OF THE TROUGH. GUIDANCE THEN SUGGESTS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES FRI AND ARRIVE OVER
CENTRAL ONTARIO/NORTHERN GREAT LAKES LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SAT. THEN
HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR A STRONGER WAVE/TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. THIS COULD RESULT IN SHIFTING THE BUILDING WESTERN CONUS
RIDGE FURTHER EAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY THE FOLLOWING
WEEK. OUTSIDE OF SOME OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN THE CURRENT
EXTENDED PERIODS...THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY NOTABLE SYSTEMS
POISED TO IMPACT THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO GENERALLY BE IN
THE 60S...HOWEVER WITH INCREASED CLOUDS AND THE WEEKEND SHORTWAVE
SYSTEM...TEMPS COULD STRUGGLE TO WARM BEYOND THE 50S SAT/SUN.
BEACHLER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...
* OCNL PERIODS MVFR CIGS/VIS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF AN
APCHG WARM FRONT.
* LIGHT WINDS SELY-ELY THROUGH ARND NOON...THEN BECMG SELY AND
INCRG TO 10-12KT.
* WINDS BECMG SSELY DURG AFTERNOON AND INCREASING TO 12G18-20KT
FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF WARM FRONT.
* WINDS BECMG SLY AND INCRG TO 18G25KT OR POSSIBLY HIGHER LATE
EVENING TO LATE NIGHT TONIGHT.
KREIN
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
VERY MOIST AIRMASS CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH TOWARDS NORTHERN
IL/NORTHWEST IN AIRFIELDS THRU TODAY. LLVL FLOW HAS REMAINED
SOUTHERLY...AND MAY SEE SFC WINDS TURN SLIGHTLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY
FOR A PERIOD OF TIME THRU MID-MORNING. CIGS ARND 900FT AGL AT MANY
SITES...AND THE LATEST INDICATIONS ARE THAT CIGS MAY BE ABLE TO
PUSH TO LOW-END MVFR CONDS EARLIER THAN EXPECTED.
WITH THE CONTINUED FEED OF MOISTURE NORTH TOWARDS TAF SITES IT
APPEARS CIGS WILL STAY DOWN THRU MOST OF THE MORNING. DRIZZLE
WITH POCKETS OF LGT SHRA WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING...THEN A LULL
IN THE PRECIP LOOKS LIKELY INTO THE AFTN.
GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO FOCUS THE BETTER ORGANIZED SHOWERS TO
HOLD OFF UNTIL AFT 22Z. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE
FOR THUNDER WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES.
BEACHLER
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIG/VIS/PCPN TRENDS AND TIMING.
* MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR/SPEED TRENDS...WITH MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT ANY THUNDER WILL BE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE
TERMINALS.
KREIN
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
TUESDAY NIGHT...OCNL -SHRA. MVFR CIGS LIKELY. STRONG NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS POSSIBLE.
WEDNESDAY...OCNL -SHRA. MVFR CIGS PROBABLE...SMALL CHANCE OF IFR
CIGS.
THURSDAY...SMALL CHANCE OF -SHRA...PREDOMINANTLY VFR.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...PREDOMINANTLY VFR.
BEACHLER
&&
.MARINE...
219 AM CDT
MAIN CONCERN RESIDES WITH THE WINDS IN THE NEARSHORE FOR
TONIGHT...WHICH APPEARS TO BE BODERLINE SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. THEN
THE GRADIENT QUICKLY DIMINISHES ARND DAYBREAK TUE...HOWEVER THIS
LOOKS TO ONLY BE TEMPORARY. TUE NGT ONCE THE LOW DRIFTS EAST OF
THE LAKE...THE GRADIENT IS POISED TO QUICKLY RAMP BACK UP.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A PERIOD OF GALES WILL DEVELOP LATE
TUE EVENING THROUGH WED.
LOW PRESSURE EARLY THIS MORNING REMAINS WELL SOUTH OF LAKE
MICHIGAN NEAR CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...HOWEVER THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO
STEADILY DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI BY
MID-MORNING. WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE LAKE WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHEAST...WHICH SHOULD BE ABLE TO
BUILD THE WAVES ALONG THE ILLINOIS NEARSHORE. THE WILDCARD IS THAT
WITH WARMER AIR FLOWING OVER THE LAKE THIS MAY RESULT IN WINDS NOT
EFFECTIVELY REACHING THE SFC. EARLIER GUIDANCE WAS INDICATING THAT
WINDS COULD BE STRONGER...BUT HAVE BEGUN TO BACK OFF FROM THIS FOR
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE LAKE. THEN AS THE LOW DRIFTS EAST OF
THE LAKE...THE GRADIENT QUICKLY INCREASES FROM THE NORTH TO SOUTH
TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS APPEARS TO BE A FAVORABLE
PERIOD WHEN GALES TO 35KT MAY OCCUR. THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS ON
THE WINDS BEING 30KT. HAVE HELD OFF ON A GALE WATCH AT THIS
TIME...BUT COULD SEE ONE BEING NEEDED FOR TUE NGT/WED. WAVES WILL
EASILY BUILD. THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE LAKE HAVE THE
BEST CHANCE TO SEE GALE FORCE GUSTS. EXPECT WAVES TO INCREASE
CONSIDERABLY...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A NORTHERLY
FETCH OF WINDS CONTINUES FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME. THE LOW
EVENTUALLY FILLS AND GETS KICKED EAST BY ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA.
BEACHLER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 4 PM MONDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-
LMZ745...10 PM MONDAY TO 5 AM TUESDAY.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY...LMZ080-LMZ366-LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-
LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-
LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 9 PM MONDAY.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1024 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1023 AM CDT MON OCT 13 2014
Leading warm front/boundary is steadily lifting northward across
the forecast area, extending roughly along a Quincy to Rantoul
line at 10 am. Visibilities have been steadily improving as the
front moves north, with only isolated areas below 2 miles left.
The big question remains with the potential for severe weather.
Line of storms currently in southeast Missouri extends all the way
into eastern Texas. 0-6km bulk shear already in the 50-60 knot
range along the Illinois/Missouri border and the RAP model shifts
this into central Illinois over the next few hours. Very little
sunshine if any to fuel the fire, with MUCAPE`s only rising into
the 500-1000 J/kg range, but the overall dynamics may be enough to
overcome this limitation. High-res models all agree in a narrow,
fast moving squall line, but have a spread of 2-6 hours in terms
of when the line actually moves through. Latest HRRR brings it as
early as 3 pm around Springfield, ranging to 6 pm with the NSSL
ARW and 8 pm with the 1km NAM nest. The northward movement of the
cells in Missouri would lead some credence to the earlier
solutions.
Have made some timing adjustments to the PoP`s in the grids
through tonight, and also added some mention of severe storms
across the south half of the area late afternoon/early evening.
Temperature trends currently on track.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT MON OCT 13 2014
High pressure ridge over both east and west coast with a deepening
and slow-moving trof dominating the Plains, moving into the
Midwest. Deepening surface low providing today`s storm system for
the region. Models pretty consistent in depicting this storm in
two main sections...with the frontal convection to the south and the
deformation zone wrapping around the NW side of the low just to
the north. Some issues with the forecast surrounding the placement
of pops to cover the trends with some uncertainty around the
timing and the depth of the dry slot. NAM and GFS all becoming
more pronounced with the dry air in the last run...and the ECMWF
coming into line as well. NSSL WRF even more aggressive with the
dry wedge...also far more showery with regards to the activity
into tonight. Under a slight risk for severe storms today, the
better shear profile to the south with the moderate risk in the
southern tip of the state and western KY...combined with a better
chance for temperature recovery from any showers over the area
this morning. This far north will be tough to scour out the
clouds, though any clearing should be watched closely for
re-energizing ahead of the system... priming for severe weather
activity.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT MON OCT 13 2014
Models have been very consistent in the last few runs with dropping
the wave into the region and cutting off the 500mb low, parking it
over the region through midweek. Tonight, the storm remains overhead
before wrapping up on itself. Threat for the stronger convection
shifts to the east before midnight... then the pops starting to
lessen with the impact of the dry slot building north into the
state. Exact location of the dry slot adding in some
uncertainty...though the precip after midnight, particularly to the
north and northwest may be dominated with mostly drizzle, but fairly
consistent enough to keep wet and plenty of low clouds through the
early morning hours.
Next couple of days will improve only slightly as the upper low
grows mostly stagnant over the region. Deformation zone starts to
lose structure as the low wraps up on Tuesday and convection from
the front races out ahead of the actual low. Cloudy, gray, showery
and cool conditions continue through Wednesday night under the
persistent cyclonic flow....likely to be dominated by rain without
thunder. Drying out on Thursday as the low finally gets kicked to
the east by another wave diving into the Great Lakes region. ECMWF
pushing a quick short wave into the region late Sun and into
Mon...GFS is dry, so the blend is starting to put some pops into the
forecast. Tempering them for now to low chance with the nature of a
fast short wave in NWrly flow on day 7/8...not a big concern at this
point.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
ISSUED AT 540 AM CDT MON OCT 13 2014
LIFR and IFR conditions are expected to continue across all of our
TAF sites thru the period. A warm front was located over southern
Illinois early this morning and is expected to track north of our
area by this afternoon. Along the frontal boundary, scattered
showers and thunderstorms are expected to track north-northeast
this morning with the front and affect all of the TAF locations
before a break in the rain by early this afternoon. North of the
warm front, we have seen areas of dense fog most of the night but
that is expected to gradually lift later this morning as the warm
front shifts to our north.
Our attention will then turn to a squall line that is forecast to
push rapidly northeast out of eastern Missouri this afternoon and
affect areas along and east of I-55. A few of the storms along the
line may be capable of producing strong winds and torrential
rainfall for a short period of time. Current indications suggest
the best timing for this squall line appears to be in the 21z-03z
time frame from southwest to northeast. Once the storms move out,
expect scattered showers from time to time overnight with a
continuation of the low cigs and vsbsy. Surface winds will be
southeast today and increase to between 15 and 25 kts with some
higher gusts possible into this evening before diminishing after
02z from a southeast direction.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Smith
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
756 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 451 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE IN THE REGION THROUGH TOMORROW
KEEPING THE LOW RAIN CHANCES AROUND. SKIES WILL BE CLOUDY WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT IN THE LOWER 50S AND HIGHS TOMORROW IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014
DEEP/STACKED TROPOSPHERIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER WC IL WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FILL EAST INTO CENTRAL IN BY WED AFTN...KEEPING
CLOUDS AND SHOWER/DRIZZLE CHANCES IN THE FCST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
BAND OF MORE ORGANIZED/HEAVIER SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN CONVERGENT
MOISTURE CHANNEL OVER EASTERN HALF OF FA WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST
TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING AS MID LEVEL DRY
SLOT OVERSPREADS. HOWEVER...WEAK ASCENT/RESIDUAL BL MOISTURE IN
TANDEM WITH NEWD PROGRESSION OF SYSTEM OCCLUDED FRONT (AND
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SMALLER SCALE PERTURBATIONS TO PINWHEEL
THROUGH THE AREA) WARRANT KEEPING LOW CHANCES FOR ISO-SCT SHOWERS
AND PATCHY DRIZZLE INTO THIS EVENING (MAINLY WEST).
BY LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING BETTER CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE
LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE FOCUSED JUST WEST OF THE IWX CWA NEAR AN
ELONGATED TROUGH AXIS THAT SHOULD BE SITUATED NEAR OR JUST WEST OF
THE IN/IL BORDER BY 12Z WED. SHOWER INTENSITY/COVERAGE SHOULD
INCREASE WED AFTN AS THIS FEATURE DRIFTS EAST AND LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES STEEPEN UNDER COLD POOL ALOFT....BEST CHANCES
WESTERN/SOUTHERN ZONES CLOSER TO CIRCULATION/DEEPER MOISTURE.
OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO TEMPS/WIND/SKY COVER
TONIGHT-WED.
&&
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014
CLOSED UPPER LOW PRESENTLY DRIFTING INTO OUR NEIGHBORHOOD WILL BEGIN
TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A STRONG
SHORTWAVE UPSTREAM FORCES A MORE ZONAL PATTERN ALOFT. THIS WILL
BRING A GRADUAL END TO RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. NO CLEAR
SYNOPTIC TRIGGERS FOR ENHANCED UVM DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...JUST
PASSING SPOKE OF CYCLONIC SHEAR VORTICITY AND RESIDUAL MOIST
CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS. MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
HAVE BEEN STRIPPED AWAY LONG AGO WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING
SATURATION CONFINED TO THE LOWEST 10 KFT. EXPECT SCT SHOWERS AT BEST
ON THURSDAY WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES IN OUR EASTERN COUNTIES DURING
THE AFTERNOON DUE TO THE MARGINAL DIURNAL STEEPENING OF LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. WILL BE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER THOUGH...KEEPING
AFTERNOON HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING/ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
SLIDES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL ALSO LEAD TO A
RELATIVELY WARM DAY WITH DECREASING CLOUDS/INCREASED PBL MIXING AND
THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK THERMAL RIDGE. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE MID TO
PERHAPS UPPER 60S.
WARM SPELL WILL BE SHORT LIVED THOUGH. AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WILL
EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH EXITING CLOSED LOW AND FORM A NEW CONSOLIDATED
ANOMALY OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS WILL LEAVE OUR REGION IN PERTURBED
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...USHERING IN COOLER AIR AND THE CHANCE FOR A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS. FIRST SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE AREA LATE FRIDAY. FORCING IS TOO WEAK AND ENVIRONMENT IS TOO DRY
FOR ANY PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT BUT PERSISTENT CAA MAY ACTIVATE THE
STILL VERY WARM WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN BY SATURDAY MORNING. SHOWERS
MAY ALSO BE AIDED BY A SECONDARY VORT MAX BUT VARIOUS NWP MEMBERS
STILL DISAGREE ON EXACT STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT OF THIS SECONDARY
WAVE. HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES
FOR SATURDAY MORNING BUT STILL THINK CHANCES OF
ACCUMULATING/IMPACTFUL RAIN ARE SLIM. HIGH TEMPS WILL RETURN TO THE
MID 50S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS MAY BE BACK INTO THE UPPER 30S BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK. NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN ARRIVES SOMETIME EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
NEXT TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION BUT DETAILS VERY SKETCHY AT
THIS POINT WITH MODELS OFFERING A DELUGE OF DIFFERENT POSSIBLE
SCENARIOS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 754 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014
FILLING/WKNG SFC CYCLONE VCNTY KSPI WILL CONT TO DRIFT EWD
OVERNIGHT. LARGE SCALE DRYSLOT HAS NOW OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE AREA
AND XPC ANY ADDNL SHRA DVLPMNT OVERNIGHT WILL BE ISOLD AT BEST AND
MAINLY OVR FAR WRN AREAS LTR TONIGHT IN PROXIMITY TO H7-5
DEFORMATION ZONE WRAPPING EWD. VFR CONDS THIS EVENING WILL DECAY
INTO WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS/VSBYS BY LT EVENING W/LWR IFR BOUND
MINIMUMS AT KSBN IN PROXIMITY TO SFC COL. IN LIGHT OF PESSIMISTIC
18Z GUIDANCE AND SHRT TERM RAP WILL LEAVE KSBN TERMINAL SOCKED IN FOR
MUCH OF THE PD.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...AGD
AVIATION...T
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
522 PM MDT TUE OCT 14 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 111 PM MDT TUE OCT 14 2014
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW BLOCKY
RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN ACROSS THE US...WITH AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER
THE WESTER US THE DOMINATE FEATURE FOR OUR CWA. AT THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IS IN PLACE OVER OUR CWA WITH A WEAK LEE TROUGH BEGINNING
TO DEVELOP OVER COLORADO.
DUE TO THE STRONG RIDGE KEEPING CONDITIONS CLEAR AND DRY ACROSS OUR
CWA...PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS ON MODERATING TEMPS AND
POTENTIAL FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY.
SOUTHERLY GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO TIGHTEN AS LEE TROUGH CONTINUES TO
DEEPEN WEDNESDAY...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING AROUND 25 MPH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPS SHOULD WARM TO THE UPPER
70S...POSSIBLY THE LOWER 80S. MODELS ARE TENDING TO ADVECT HIGHER
TD VALUES NORTH WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW...HOWEVER IT APPEARS THE
BETTER MOISTURE SHOULD BE CUT OFF TO THE SOUTH AT LEAST THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE AFTERNOON. MIXING HEIGHTS ARE SOMEWHAT LIMITED
BY ELEVATED INVERSION...HOWEVER WE SHOULD STILL SEE TD VALUES MIX
TO THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S IN THE WEST. RESULT WOULD BE RH VALUES
RIGHT ABOVE 15 PERCENT. AFTER COORDINATION WITH PARTNERS CURRENT
FUELS SHOULD SUPPORT EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH FOR ALL OF OUR CWA
EXCEPT FOR GREELEY AND WICHITA COUNTIES. CONDITIONS WILL BE
CLOSE TO CRITERIA...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN A 3HR CROSSOVER OF
WIND/RH IS LOW SO A RED FLAG WARNING IS PLANNED DURING THIS UPDATE
WEDNESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 PM MDT TUE OCT 14 2014
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD IS NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY. A BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN FOR
THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD SHALL LEAD TO LITTLE TO NO HAZARDOUS
WEATHER THROUGHOUT.
BEGINNING WITH THURSDAY...A STRONG...FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PASSES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS TROUGH ALSO FORCES A WEAK COLD
FRONT THROUGH. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS TROUGH SHALL BE A SLIGHT
COOLING OF TEMPERATURES...ALBEIT REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL...DRIER AIR
AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS. FIRE WEATHER MAY BECOME A CONCERN FOR
THURSDAY IF TEMPERATURES ARE WARMER AND DEWPOINTS LOWER THAN
CURRENTLY ADVERTISED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO BRING SOME CONCERN THAT
DRIER AIR ALOFT COULD MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE AND BRING MUCH LOWER
HUMIDITIES. CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
NEAR 20 PERCENT AND WIND GUSTS 30-35 MPH. MADE SOME CALLS TO LOCAL
FIRE WEATHER PARTNERS AND CONSENSUS SEEMS TO BE FUELS ARE CURED
ENOUGH TO CARRY A FIRE THREAT. FOR NOW...WILL MENTION CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE HWO BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING
A WATCH.
FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...EXPECTING QUIET WEATHER FOR THE MOST
PART. FORECAST GUIDANCE IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A SYSTEM MOVING
IN SUNDAY. THE SYSTEM IS FAIRLY WEAK AND MOST GUIDANCE ANTICIPATES A
FURTHER SOUTH TRACK AND SLOWER PACE COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. WHILE A
SHOWER OR TWO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT COMPLETELY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...DID NOT THINK THAT A PRECIP MENTION WAS REQUIRED.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES LOOKS TO BREAK
DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THIS HAPPENS...A TROUGH REPLACES THE RIDGE
AND BRINGS SOUTH WINDS AND HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT...PRIMING THE
AREA FOR POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION BY MID-WEEK. THIS SYSTEM REPRESENTS
THE NEXT BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AND POTENTIALLY A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS IF TEMPERATURES/INSTABILITY ARE HIGH ENOUGH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 514 PM MDT TUE OCT 14 2014
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE TAFS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
WILL STRENGTHEN FROM THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THEN BECOME
LIGHT BY EARLY EVENING.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...JTL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
157 PM MDT MON OCT 13 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 127 PM MDT MON OCT 13 2014
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOWS LARGE CALE
RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE WESTERN US INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH
CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN KS. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS
BEGINNING TO BUILD INTO NORTHERN AND EASTERN COLORADO WITH A
NORTH-SOUTH PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE OVER WESTERN KS.
WINDS ALOFT ARE ALREADY SHOWING A DOWNWARD TREND...AND AS THE
SURFACE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN WINDS WILL FOLLOW SUIT. WIND
ADVISORY IS MARGINAL...HOWEVER I COULD SEE ANOTHER FEW HOURS WHERE
GUSTS WILL BE AROUND 45 MPH. IT IS CLOSE ENOUGH THAT I DIDNT WANT
TO EXPIRE THE ADVISORY EARLY...SO WILL ALLOW THE ADVISORY TO
CONTINUE UNTIL WE SEE A MUCH MORE DEFINITE DOWNWARD TREND IN WIND
SPEEDS.
WITH CLEAR SKIES...DECREASING WINDS...AND LOW TD VALUES IN THE MID
20S TO LOW 30S WE WILL SEE VERY GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT. AIR MARI MASS MAY BEGIN TO MODERATE SOME
ALOFT...HOWEVER WE WILL STILL SEE OVERNIGHT LOWS AT LEAST IN THE
MIDDLE 30S. RIVER VALLEYS AND OTHER LOW LYING/SHELTERED LOCATIONS
WILL LIKELY SEE FROST...AND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR TEMPS TO BE
EVEN COOLER THAN EXPECTED I DECIDED TO ISSUE FROST ADVISORY 06Z-
15Z TUE.
TUESDAY...WITH STRONG RIDGING ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY...AND AIR
MASS WILL SLOWLY MODERATE. HIGHS SHOULD BE SEASONAL WITH VALUES IN
THE UPPER 60S (POSSIBLY LOWER 70S).
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 157 PM MDT MON OCT 13 2014
FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST...A RATHER BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN SETS UP
IN THE FORM OF A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES. TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO BE
ABOVE NORMAL. A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY...LEAVING SLIGHTLY COOLER YET MARGINALLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN ITS WAKE. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED.
AS FOR PRECIPITATION...A DRY FORECAST HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA. THE CURRENT GFS RUN AND THE PREVIOUS EUROPEAN MODEL
INDICATED A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH ON SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM
WAS PROJECTED TO BRING SOME SHOWERS...POSSIBLY A STORM OR TWO...TO
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70. THE CURRENT EUROPEAN MODEL RUN HAS
BACKED OFF THAT SOLUTION AND...IN AGREEMENT WITH THE CANADIAN
MODEL...HOLDS THE DISTURBANCE UP IN THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.
IN COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES...DECIDED TO PULL
INITIALIZED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1129 AM MDT MON OCT 13 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT KGLD AND
KMCK. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT BOTH TERMINALS BEFORE
SLOWLY DECREASING LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE GRADIENT
RELAXES AND HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT MDT /1 AM CDT/ TONIGHT TO 9 AM MDT
/10 AM CDT/ TUESDAY FOR KSZ001>003-013-014-027-028-041-042.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
CO...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM MDT TUESDAY FOR
COZ090>092.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ091-092.
NE...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT MDT /1 AM CDT/ TONIGHT TO 9 AM MDT
/10 AM CDT/ TUESDAY FOR NEZ079>081.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ080-081.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
128 PM MDT MON OCT 13 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 127 PM MDT MON OCT 13 2014
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOWS LARGE CALE
RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE WESTERN US INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH
CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN KS. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS
BEGINNING TO BUILD INTO NORTHERN AND EASTERN COLORADO WITH A
NORTH-SOUTH PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE OVER WESTERN KS.
WINDS ALOFT ARE ALREADY SHOWING A DOWNWARD TREND...AND AS THE
SURFACE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN WINDS WILL FOLLOW SUIT. WIND
ADVISORY IS MARGINAL...HOWEVER I COULD SEE ANOTHER FEW HOURS WHERE
GUSTS WILL BE AROUND 45 MPH. IT IS CLOSE ENOUGH THAT I DIDNT WANT
TO EXPIRE THE ADVISORY EARLY...SO WILL ALLOW THE ADVISORY TO
CONTINUE UNTIL WE SEE A MUCH MORE DEFINITE DOWNWARD TREND IN WIND
SPEEDS.
WITH CLEAR SKIES...DECREASING WINDS...AND LOW TD VALUES IN THE MID
20S TO LOW 30S WE WILL SEE VERY GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT. AIR MARI MASS MAY BEGIN TO MODERATE SOME
ALOFT...HOWEVER WE WILL STILL SEE OVERNIGHT LOWS AT LEAST IN THE
MIDDLE 30S. RIVER VALLEYS AND OTHER LOW LYING/SHELTERED LOCATIONS
WILL LIKELY SEE FROST...AND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR TEMPS TO BE
EVEN COOLER THAN EXPECTED I DECIDED TO ISSUE FROST ADVISORY 06Z-
15Z TUE.
TUESDAY...WITH STRONG RIDGING ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY...AND AIR
MASS WILL SLOWLY MODERATE. HIGHS SHOULD BE SEASONAL WITH VALUES IN
THE UPPER 60S (POSSIBLY LOWER 70S).
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM MDT MON OCT 13 2014
FOR TUESDAY ON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
WILL SEE A PROLONGED DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER AS BROAD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE ROCKIES ON INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
DURING THIS TIME FRAME DO EXPECT GRADUAL INCREASE IN DAYTIME TEMPS
AS REGION WILL SEE LIMITED CLOUD COVER AND FULL SUNSHINE. LOOKING
FOR TEMPS TO START OFF ON TUESDAY AROUND 70F...THEN INCREASE WELL
INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S BY MIDWEEK. FOR THE OVERNIGHT LOWS
HOWEVER...LACK OF CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW FOR AMPLE RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND THUS DROP TEMPS DOWN INTO THE 30S TO NEAR 40F.
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL START THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD ON
THURSDAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE MOVES THROUGH THE
HIGH PLAINS REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY ACROSS THE REGION
WILL RISE BETWEEN THE LOW TO MID 70S...WHICH IS ABOUT 5 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. COOLER AIR WILL SLIDE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS AS A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
FRIDAY...BRINGING HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL IN THE
UPPER 60S. DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEKEND. LOW TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD
SHOULD STAY ABOVE FREEZING AND NEAR NORMAL WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO
MID 40S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1129 AM MDT MON OCT 13 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT KGLD AND
KMCK. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT BOTH TERMINALS BEFORE
SLOWLY DECREASING LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE GRADIENT
RELAXES AND HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT MDT /1 AM CDT/ TONIGHT TO 9 AM MDT
/10 AM CDT/ TUESDAY FOR KSZ001>003-013-014-027-028-041-042.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
CO...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM MDT TUESDAY FOR
COZ090>092.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ091-092.
NE...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT MDT /1 AM CDT/ TONIGHT TO 9 AM MDT
/10 AM CDT/ TUESDAY FOR NEZ079>081.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ080-081.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JN/MK
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PADUCAH KY
1227 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2014
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1227 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014
The AVIATION discussion has been updated for the 18Z TAF issuance.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 350 AM CDT MON OCT 13 2014
Decided not to issue a Flash Flood Watch at this time. The latest
HRRR has the main line into Carter and Ripley counties around 18Z
and to the Mississippi River by 21Z this afternoon. Looking at
current radar mosaics, it appears that the latest HRRR may even be
a bit slow. Anyway, followed it fairly closely in timing the main
band through the area in the PoP grids. This is a bit faster than
the previous forecast.
The main convective band may hang up a bit tonight over the
Pennyrile and southwest Indiana, and that is where the heaviest
rain is likely to fall. Using the latest HPC QPF gives that region
2.5"-3" through tonight, which is below 3 hour FFG. Certainly
could see some nuisance issues, but nothing widespread or
significant is expected based on the QPF and FFG. If the FFG is
lowered after this morning`s rains are processed, then the day
shift can re-evaluate.
The 00Z models and the latest HRRR indicate that some scattered
convection will be possible over much of the area through midday,
but then it should dry out, as the main convective band begins to
move through the region. Still cannot rule out a strong storm
through midday, if they become surface-based late this morning.
Damaging winds and hail would be the primary concern.
Wind fields will increase significantly later this afternoon,
presumably with the main band. However, as the line is pushed
faster to the east, there is some concern that it may outrun the
strongest wind fields. Either way there will be plenty of 0-3km
helicity to support rotating updrafts and the 0-1km shear will be
quite strong. The bottom line is that damaging winds and some
tornadoes will be possible. If a supercell can get going just
ahead of the line or persist within the line, a more significant
damaging wind and tornado threat can be expected.
As for timing, figure that the main line will enter Ripley and
Carter counties near 18Z, and push east of the area just after
06Z. That would result in a 12 hour window for severe weather and
heavy rainfall.
Will have to keep good chance PoPs going throughout the region
Tuesday through Wednesday due to the proximity of the upper low,
and the presence of a weak surface trough. The best coverage of
showers is expected Wednesday as the upper low moves right
overhead.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 350 AM CDT MON OCT 13 2014
The GFS continues to slow down the departure of the pesky upper
level low that will be with us for most of the early part of this
week. Yesterdays 00Z GFS run indicated that the low would be exiting
on Wednesday and now, todays 00Z run indicates that it will be more
like Wednesday night. The 00Z ECMWF is now very similar to the 00Z
GFS. Therefore, chances for showers will continue Wednesday
night/Thursday but chances will be greatest in the east/northeast.
After this system pulls out of the area, a weak/dry front moves
through the area on Friday, followed by high pressure that will keep
us dry through Sunday. Another system may bring us a chance for more
precipitation on Sunday night, but confidence is not high yet so
will keep chances low.
After one more day in the 60s on Thursday, we should finally see
readings into the 70s on Friday, but cool off a bit on Saturday and
Sunday behind the weak cold front.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 1227 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014
Numerous showers and thunderstorms will cross the TAF sites from
west to east throughout the first few hours of the period. Some
storms may be severe and will produce locally heavy rainfall. MVFR
cigs/vsbys will prevail will the passage of the storms, however
brief IFR conditions may occur. In the wake of the area of
preciptation, IFR cigs and/or vsbys and patchy drizzle will
prevail through the overnight hours. Conditions should become MVFR
toward the end of the period. Southerly winds at 12-14 knots
gusting to 20-22 knots will drop off to AOB 10 knots overnight,
then pick back up from the south southwest at 10-12 knots with
gusts up to 20 knots after 15-16Z.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...CW
AVIATION...JP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
651 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2014
.UPDATE...
Issued at 651 AM CDT MON OCT 13 2014
The AVIATION section has been updated for the 12Z TAF issuance.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 350 AM CDT MON OCT 13 2014
Decided not to issue a Flash Flood Watch at this time. The latest
HRRR has the main line into Carter and Ripley counties around 18Z
and to the Mississippi River by 21Z this afternoon. Looking at
current radar mosaics, it appears that the latest HRRR may even be
a bit slow. Anyway, followed it fairly closely in timing the main
band through the area in the PoP grids. This is a bit faster than
the previous forecast.
The main convective band may hang up a bit tonight over the
Pennyrile and southwest Indiana, and that is where the heaviest
rain is likely to fall. Using the latest HPC QPF gives that region
2.5"-3" through tonight, which is below 3 hour FFG. Certainly
could see some nuisance issues, but nothing widespread or
significant is expected based on the QPF and FFG. If the FFG is
lowered after this morning`s rains are processed, then the day
shift can re-evaluate.
The 00Z models and the latest HRRR indicate that some scattered
convection will be possible over much of the area through midday,
but then it should dry out, as the main convective band begins to
move through the region. Still cannot rule out a strong storm
through midday, if they become surface-based late this morning.
Damaging winds and hail would be the primary concern.
Wind fields will increase significantly later this afternoon,
presumably with the main band. However, as the line is pushed
faster to the east, there is some concern that it may outrun the
strongest wind fields. Either way there will be plenty of 0-3km
helicity to support rotating updrafts and the 0-1km shear will be
quite strong. The bottom line is that damaging winds and some
tornadoes will be possible. If a supercell can get going just
ahead of the line or persist within the line, a more significant
damaging wind and tornado threat can be expected.
As for timing, figure that the main line will enter Ripley and
Carter counties near 18Z, and push east of the area just after
06Z. That would result in a 12 hour window for severe weather and
heavy rainfall.
Will have to keep good chance PoPs going throughout the region
Tuesday through Wednesday due to the proximity of the upper low,
and the presence of a weak surface trough. The best coverage of
showers is expected Wednesday as the upper low moves right
overhead.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 350 AM CDT MON OCT 13 2014
The GFS continues to slow down the departure of the pesky upper
level low that will be with us for most of the early part of this
week. Yesterdays 00Z GFS run indicated that the low would be exiting
on Wednesday and now, todays 00Z run indicates that it will be more
like Wednesday night. The 00Z ECMWF is now very similar to the 00Z
GFS. Therefore, chances for showers will continue Wednesday
night/Thursday but chances will be greatest in the east/northeast.
After this system pulls out of the area, a weak/dry front moves
through the area on Friday, followed by high pressure that will keep
us dry through Sunday. Another system may bring us a chance for more
precipitation on Sunday night, but confidence is not high yet so
will keep chances low.
After one more day in the 60s on Thursday, we should finally see
readings into the 70s on Friday, but cool off a bit on Saturday and
Sunday behind the weak cold front.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 651 AM CDT MON OCT 13 2014
Low VFR or MVFR ceilings will develop throughout the region
quickly this morning and persist well into the afternoon. Some
scattered showers or even a brief thunderstorm may impact KCGI
through midday. The main concern for this forecast is timing a
line of thunderstorms through each of the TAF sites. The line is
likely to arrive faster than previously expected. It should reach
KCGI by 20Z, and then push eastward, reaching KOWB by 01Z. A
period of gusty winds up to 40kts can be expected along with IFR
conditions, which may last up to 3 hours in the west and 4 hours
in the east, where the line is expected to slow down. Very gusty
southeast winds will be the rule until the line has passed. IFR
ceilings are a good bet behind the line.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...CW
AVIATION...DRS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
350 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2014
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 350 AM CDT MON OCT 13 2014
Decided not to issue a Flash Flood Watch at this time. The latest
HRRR has the main line into Carter and Ripley counties around 18Z
and to the Mississippi River by 21Z this afternoon. Looking at
current radar mosaics, it appears that the latest HRRR may even be
a bit slow. Anyway, followed it fairly closely in timing the main
band through the area in the PoP grids. This is a bit faster than
the previous forecast.
The main convective band may hang up a bit tonight over the
Pennyrile and southwest Indiana, and that is where the heaviest
rain is likely to fall. Using the latest HPC QPF gives that region
2.5"-3" through tonight, which is below 3 hour FFG. Certainly
could see some nuisance issues, but nothing widespread or
significant is expected based on the QPF and FFG. If the FFG is
lowered after this morning`s rains are processed, then the day
shift can re-evaluate.
The 00Z models and the latest HRRR indicate that some scattered
convection will be possible over much of the area through midday,
but then it should dry out, as the main convective band begins to
move through the region. Still cannot rule out a strong storm
through midday, if they become surface-based late this morning.
Damaging winds and hail would be the primary concern.
Wind fields will increase significantly later this afternoon,
presumably with the main band. However, as the line is pushed
faster to the east, there is some concern that it may outrun the
strongest wind fields. Either way there will be plenty of 0-3km
helicity to support rotating updrafts and the 0-1km shear will be
quite strong. The bottom line is that damaging winds and some
tornadoes will be possible. If a supercell can get going just
ahead of the line or persist within the line, a more significant
damaging wind and tornado threat can be expected.
As for timing, figure that the main line will enter Ripley and
Carter counties near 18Z, and push east of the area just after
06Z. That would result in a 12 hour window for severe weather and
heavy rainfall.
Will have to keep good chance PoPs going throughout the region
Tuesday through Wednesday due to the proximity of the upper low,
and the presence of a weak surface trough. The best coverage of
showers is expected Wednesday as the upper low moves right
overhead.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 350 AM CDT MON OCT 13 2014
The GFS continues to slow down the departure of the pesky upper
level low that will be with us for most of the early part of this
week. Yesterdays 00Z GFS run indicated that the low would be exiting
on Wednesday and now, todays 00Z run indicates that it will be more
like Wednesday night. The 00Z ECMWF is now very similar to the 00Z
GFS. Therefore, chances for showers will continue Wednesday
night/Thursday but chances will be greatest in the east/northeast.
After this system pulls out of the area, a weak/dry front moves
through the area on Friday, followed by high pressure that will keep
us dry through Sunday. Another system may bring us a chance for more
precipitation on Sunday night, but confidence is not high yet so
will keep chances low.
After one more day in the 60s on Thursday, we should finally see
readings into the 70s on Friday, but cool off a bit on Saturday and
Sunday behind the weak cold front.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 1148 PM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014
Moist southerly flow ahead of an approaching low pressure system
will keep low VFR or MVFR ceilings around through the greater part
of the forecast period. Isolated showers will be possible just about
anytime, but the greatest chance appears to be with the passage of a
ripple of energy late tonight and early Monday morning. The approach
of a cold front will bring a line of potentially strong to severe
thunderstorms late Monday afternoon and evening. Light south to
southeast winds tonight will become sustained 12 to 15 knots by late
Monday morning. Some gusts as high as 20 to 25 knots are possible
Monday afternoon.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...CW
AVIATION...RJP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
1225 AM CDT MON OCT 13 2014
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 13/06Z TAFS...EXPECT A CONTINUED LOWERING OF CIGS TO
IFR/LIFR THIS MORNING AS CONVECTION BEGINS TO INCREASE FROM THE
WEST OUT AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT OVER WEST TEXAS. AN INTENSE
LINE OF SHWRS/TSTMS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD EWRD AS WE SHIFT AHEAD
TO MID/LATE MORNING IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT IN N CNTRL TX/ERN OK.
THESE STORMS WILL RACE RAPIDLY EWRD ACROSS THE REGION AND PRODUCE
STRONG AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS THROUGH THE
DAY ON MONDAY. TIMING PUTS THE LINE NEAR TYR/GGG/TXK FROM 12Z-15Z
AND 15Z-18Z AT LFK/SHV/ELD...AND MLU AROUND 18Z-21Z. CIGS WILL
IMPROVE SLIGHTLY AT OUR WRN SITES IN E TX AND POSSIBLY SHV/TXK
NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD BUT SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MAY KEEP CLOUDS FROM EXITING QUITE AS QUICKLY
BEHIND THE FRONT. THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE THE STRONG WINDS NOT
ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION AS S/SW FLOW WILL PICK UP LATER THIS
MORNING AND WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 12-20 KTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS APPROACHING 25-30 KTS. W/NW WINDS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH SPEEDS DROPPING OFF AFTER 14/00Z. /19/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1038 PM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014/
DISCUSSION...
VERY BUSY EVENING...AS SCT CONVECTION RAPIDLY DEVELOPED/BECAME SVR
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EXTREME ERN TX/N LA WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR
ALONG/S OF A WARM FRONT. THIS FRONT CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY MIX NNW
THIS EVENING...WITH VERY LOW STRATUS/PATCHY FG STILL HANGING TOUGH
ATTM ACROSS PORTIONS OF EXTREME NE TX/SE OK/SW AR ALONG/N OF THE
I-30 CORRIDOR. THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE THAT TRIGGERED THE SCT SVR
CONVECTION EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS EJECTED NE OF THE AREA...WITH
ALL EYES FOCUSED TO OUR W WITH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH DIVING SE INTO
THE PLAINS. MOSAIC RADARS ALREADY INDICATING A DEVELOPING SQUALL
LINE OVER CNTRL OK/NW TX...ALONG A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT HAS
MOVED THROUGH THE TX PANHANDLE INTO WRN OK. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
HAS TIGHTENED OVER THE SRN PLAINS THIS EVENING...WITH STRONG
FRONTAL CONVERGENCE CONTRIBUTING TO SVR CONVECTION...WHERE STRONG
DIFFLUENCE IN THE RRQ OF THE UPPER JET HAS SET UP.
SFC WINDS OVER OUR REGION HAS NOT INCREASED MUCH AS EARLIER
ANTICIPATED...WITH THE GFS MUCH TOO FAST WITH INCREASING WINDS
AHEAD OF AN INTENSIFYING SFC LOW THAT WILL SPREAD SE INTO CNTRL
OK LATE. HAVE DELAYED THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4AM
MONDAY...AND HAVE MAINTAINED IT THROUGH THE ORIGINAL 7PM EXPIRATION
TIME. HAVE ALSO LOWERED POPS A TAD ACROSS EXTREME E TX/NW
LA/SCNTRL AR AND REMOVED HEAVY RAINFALL WORDING...WITH THE NEW 00Z
NAM IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE HRRR WITH PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE MOVING INTO EXTREME SE OK/NE
TX AFTER 08Z. HAVE ALSO ADDED SVR WORDING TO E TX/SE OK AS WELL
LATE...AND ADDED IT AREAWIDE MONDAY AS THE SQUALL LINE RACES
ACROSS THE REGION. WITH THE HRRR AND 00Z NAM SUGGESTING A FASTER
PROGRESSION OF THE SQUALL LINE...HOPEFULLY THIS AND THE MORNING
LOW STRATUS WILL DETER DESTABILIZATION SOME OVER NCNTRL LA/SCNTRL
AR. HOWEVER...A SLOWER EWD PROGRESSION WOULD SUGGEST MORE
HEATING/INSTABILITY WITHIN A STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...WHICH
WOULD RESULT IN AN ENHANCED SVR THREAT.
AM CONCERNED FOR POTENTIAL FLOODING ISSUES LATE TONIGHT/MONDAY
MORNING ESPECIALLY OVER SE OK/ADJACENT SECTIONS OF SW AR /OUR NRN
COUNTIES/...AS ANY PRE-SQUALL LINE CONVECTION WOULD TEND TO TRAIN
OVER THESE AREAS...RESULTING IN 2-4+ INCH QPF/S OVER ALREADY
SATURATED GROUNDS. WILL NOT ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THESE
AREAS JUST YET...AS THE SQUALL LINE MAY QUICKLY OVERTAKE THE PRE-
FRONTAL CONVECTION AND LIMIT TRAINING. HOWEVER...LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE.
DID ADJUST MIN TEMPS SLIGHTLY TONIGHT...WITH CURRENT TEMPS SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW THE ORIGINAL FORECAST VALUES. HOWEVER...TEMPS SHOULD
SLOWLY WARM OVERNIGHT AS WINDS/LOW STRATUS INCREASES ACROSS THE
NWN EXPANDING WARM SECTOR.
ZONE UPDATE/NPW ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.
15
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 67 79 53 74 48 / 50 100 10 10 10
MLU 68 82 55 73 50 / 40 100 40 10 10
DEQ 64 75 52 71 42 / 80 100 30 10 10
TXK 65 77 52 71 48 / 60 100 20 10 10
ELD 67 78 52 70 46 / 50 100 30 10 10
TYR 68 74 51 75 49 / 70 100 10 10 10
GGG 66 77 52 76 46 / 50 100 10 10 10
LFK 70 82 52 78 48 / 30 100 10 10 10
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.
LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.
OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: OKZ077.
TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.
&&
$$
19
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
942 AM EDT MON OCT 13 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST FROM LONG ISLAND THROUGH TUESDAY. A
POWERFUL COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY BEFORE PASSING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY. AN UPPER-LEVEL
LOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN STATES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC HIPRES OVER NEW ENGLAND HAS WEDGED SWWD DOWN THE MID ATLC
COAST. A CURVY WMFNT EXTENDS EWD FM A MATURE CYCLONE IN THE CENTER
OF THE CONUS. BASED ON DEWPTS...THIS WMFNT HAS PUSHED N OF THE MID
OHVLY INTO IL/IN/OH...BUT THEN DIPS SWD INTO THE CAROLINAS. WHILE
THE MRNG LWX RAOB WAS SATD/STBL...THERES ENUF LIFT OVERRUNNING THE
WMFNT TO PROMOTE SHRA PUSHING ACRS CWFA. THIS ACTIVITY MAINLY S OF
THE PTMC RIVER BUT STRETCHES ACRS SRN MD AS WELL. WHILE QPF LGT...
HV UPDTD FCSTS FOR HIER POPS.
RECENT HRRR RUNS INITIALIZED MRNG PCPN FAIRLY WELL...AND PUSHES E
OF THE METROS BY MIDDAY. THAT WL LEAVE THE MID-LT AFTN HRS
RELATIVELY RAIN-FREE. HV SIDED FCST TWD THIS SOLN...BUT HVNT
TRIMMED POPS ENTIRELY IN RECOGNITION OF ISENT LIFT AND AVBL MSTR.
MAXT WL BE A BIT OF A CHALLENGE...AS WE/LL NEED TO DRY OUT FIRST.
IF THERE WERE ANY SORT OF DIURNAL WARMING...SNDG CUD SUPPORT MAXT
ABV 70F...AS GFS IMPLIES. LAMP OFFERING THIS SOLN AS WELL. HAVING
DOUBTS WHETHER THIS WL HPPN THO. WE/L NED TO GET RID OF LLVL MSTR
FIRST. IF WE DO RISE...ITLL BE FOR A VERY SHORT PD PRIOR TO SUNSET.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE COAST TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
BOUNDARY WILL ATTEMPT TO COME BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. THIS WON/T
HAPPEN TONIGHT...POSSIBLY LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR TUESDAY NIGHT
BUT MODELS SOMETIMES TRY TO BRING THESE TOO FAR TO THE NORTH TOO
SOON.
LOTS OF MOISTURE WILL BE AROUND DURING THIS PERIOD FOR CLOUDY SKIES.
LEANED TOWARD SREFS FOR POPS TONIGHT/TUESDAY...FOCUSED CLOSE TO AND
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE GIVEN OROGRAPHIC LIFT. SOME GUIDANCE IS
SUGGESTING LOW VIS IN FOG AS WELL. THIS MAY BE MORE OF A STRATUS
THAN FOG SITUATION BUT CERTAINLY CAN/T RULE OUT PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY. START TO BRING POPS FURTHER EAST TUESDAY NIGHT
AS LIFT STARTS TO INCREASE GIVEN UPSTREAM LOW/TROUGH AND OCCLUDED
FRONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. CONTINUED TO SIDE TOWARD THE EURO WITH A SLOWER TRACK OF
THE UPPER LOW AND FRONT.
SLOW MOVING UPPER CUTOFF LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. THIS PATTERN FAVORS HIGHER PWATS WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE
STREAMING NORTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA. GIVEN THE UPPER
DIFFLUENCE AND JET DYNAMICS...EXPECTING HEAVY SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP ALONG WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. TRAINING OF SHOWERS/STORMS
COULD DEVELOP WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING A POSSIBILITY. IN
ADDITION...STRONG LOW LEVEL 925MB FLOW OF 40 TO 50KTS WILL CREATE A
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN HEAVY SHOWERS/STORMS DURING
WEDNESDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL LEVELS WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND RAMPED UP EXPECTED QPF. WILL CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT EVENT POTENTIAL IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
GIVEN THE SLOWER TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW...FRONT MAY NOT MAKE IT
ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL THURSDAY. WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN
PLACE INTO THURSDAY WITH UPPER ENERGY HOLDING TO THE WEST. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY WITH COOLER CONDITIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD MOSTLY IN
THE 60S WITH LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S.
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH AND FRONT COULD SWING THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND
BRINGING A RE-ENFORCEMENT OF COOLER TEMPERATURES AND PERHAPS AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. KEPT THE FORECAST DRY ATTM.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR FLGT CONDS PREVAIL...W/ LIFR CONTG AT CHO. DO NOT XPCT TOO
MUCH IMPRVMNT THRU NOON AS ARE OF SHRA CROSSES THE TERMINALS. WL
GO THE OPTIMISTIC RTE THEREAFTER...ALLOWING FOR VFR. THAT FCST HAS
LWR THAN TYPICAL CONFIDENCE LVLS. THE ALTERNATE SCENARIO WUD BE
FOR LWR FLGT CATEGORIES TO CONT INTO/THRU THE AFTN.
GDNC SUGGEST WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS FROM CIGS AND PERHAPS VIS AS
WELL DVLPG TNGT AND CONTG INTO TUE MRNG. LEANED A LITTLE MORE TOWARD
THE MAV/GFS FOR THE INTERMEDIATE PERIOD...BUT IF THE FORECAST WERE
TO GO WRONG IT WOULD BE THAT THE AFTERNOON PERIOD IS TOO
OPTIMISTIC.
WIDESPREAD VSBY AND CIG RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL...DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. LOW CIGS AND VSBYS MAY HANG ON
INTO THURSDAY WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO FOLLOW FROM WEST TO
EAST LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. VFR EXPECTED FOR THE START OF THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.MARINE...
NO CHGS TO THE MARINE FCST ATTM. SOUTHEAST FLOW HAS DEVELOPED AND
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE EARLY THIS WEEK. MODELS SUGGEST WINDS
INCREASING LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. FEEL WINDS WILL BE BELOW SCA
CRITERIA TODAY...BUT ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO 20 KT
RANGE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE
BAY AND LOWER PORTION OF THE TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER.
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS A GOOD BET WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
WINDS BELOW SCA LEVELS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL DEPARTURES REMAIN ARND 3/4 FT ABV ASTRO NORMALS. AT THAT
RATE...HIGH TIDE IS COMING IN ABV CAUTION STAGE BUT UNDER MINOR
FLOOD CRITERIA.
HOWEVER THE SUBSEQUENT HIGH TIDE CYCLE THAT OCCURS TONIGHT WILL
BE THE HIGHER OF THE NEXT TWO...AND BY THEN ANOMALIES MAY BE ABOVE
1 FT DUE TO SOUTHEAST WINDS. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING APPEARS LIKELY
AT ANNAPOLIS AND COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WILL EVENTUALLY BE
NECESSARY. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER AT OTHER LOCATIONS...AND WILL
DEPEND ON HOW MUCH ANOMALIES INCREASE BY HIGH TIDE BUT MINOR TIDAL
FLOODING CERTAINLY WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THE RISK FOR MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT AS SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE. BY
WEDNESDAY...THERE COULD ALSO BE THE RISK FOR MODERATE TIDAL FLOODING
AT SENSITIVE LOCATIONS. THE POTENTIAL FOR TIDAL FLOODING WILL
DECREASE ON THURSDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT
TUESDAY FOR ANZ530>534-537-539>543.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KRW
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...BPP
LONG TERM...KRW
AVIATION...HTS/BPP/KRW
MARINE...HTS/BPP/KRW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS/BPP/KRW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1152 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014
.AVIATION...
//DISCUSSION...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS NOW FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER THE TAF SITES AS
CEILINGS HAVE FALLEN BELOW 1000 FT INTO THE IFR CATEGORY. LOW
CEILINGS AND LIGHT DRIZZLE ARE EXPECTED FOR THE BALANCE OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE DRY SLOT MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN. SOME IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AS DAYTIME HEATING MIXES THE LOW MOISTURE UP A FEW THOUSAND FEET.
//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FEET DURING THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 326 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014
SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN ILLINOIS IS BEGINNING THE PROCESS
OF PROPAGATING BACK INTO THE COLD AIR AS OCCLUSION BEGINS TO TAKE
SHAPE IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE. AS THIS OCCURS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS, A SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS PROGGED TO TAKE SHAPE NEAR
THE TRIPLE POINT OVER WESTERN LOWER MI WHICH SHOULD HELP USHER THE
DEEPER MOISTURE EAST OF THE AREA BY 06Z. IN THE MEANTIME, WEAKLY
FORCED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM CONVEYOR AND ENHANCED BY
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LEAD EDGE OF THE GRADUALLY DESCENDING DRY SLOT
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE NIGHT. THE 16Z HRRR SUGGESTS THIS COULD TAKE UNTIL AS LATE AS
07-08Z FOR EASTERN AREAS, CONSIDERABLY SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED. THIS CERTAINLY SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS WHICH SHOW VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORWARD MOTION FOR THE
UPSTREAM CYCLONE. THE RAINFALL FORECAST WILL BE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY
TO ALLOW FOR A SLOWER EXIT OF SHOWERS AND LINGERING DRIZZLE. LIGHT
COLD ADVECTION WILL GET UNDERWAY ONCE THE DEEPER MOISTURE EXITS EAST
AND THE COOL AIRMASS OVER SOUTHERN MO/IL/IN ADVECTS INTO THE AREA
WITHIN DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW. LOWS IN THE MID 50S ARE
REASONABLE.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY
UPPER CUTOFF LOW MEANDERING ACROSS THE REGION WILL IMPACT OUR
WEATHER LOCALLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MAIN MOISTURE PLUME WILL BE
SHUNTED OFF TO THE EAST...BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER IN LOWER
LEVELS TO SUPPORT BOUTS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR
WEDNESDAY SHOW STEEP LAPSE RATES DEVELOPING BELOW 10KFT SO SHOWER
PRODUCTION WILL LIKELY GET A BOOST FROM DIURNAL PROCESSES DURING THE
AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY...A BIT OF ENHANCED THETA-E AT LOWER TO MID
LEVELS WILL BE DRIVEN WESTWARD FROM THE MAIN MOISTURE PLUME OVER THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS IS DUE TO EASTERLY TRAJECTORIES DEVELOPING AS
THE LOW/MID LEVEL CIRCULATION REORIENTS ITSELF TO OUR SOUTH WHILE
DRIFTING EASTWARD. WITH THE DISORGANIZED NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM
HOWEVER...POPS WILL BE KEPT AT LOW/MID LEVEL CHANCE RANGE.
ADDITIONAL BOUTS OF SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY AS
HIGHER THETA-E CONTINUES TO WRAP INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST. WEAK
SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING AN
END TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES. TEMPERATURES BOTH WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE AS THERE IS NOT MUCH COLD AIR
BENEATH THE UPPER LOW. CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS ELEVATED.
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SWING THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
REGION ON FRIDAY BRINGING YET AGAIN ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS
TO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. WHILE RAIN SHOWERS COULD BE POSSIBLE
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE AREA...THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS LOOKS
TO BE IN THE NORTHERN CWA. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING SOME MUCH NEEDED DRY
WEATHER TO THE AREA. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL BRING A
RETURN OF RAIN ON MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY MILD ON
FRIDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S BEFORE DROPPING DOWN INTO THE MID 50S
FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR TREND STARING OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S ON
FRIDAY NIGHT AND DROPPING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S FOR THE REST OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
MARINE...
MODERATELY STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS. THIS HAS
BROUGHT IN A MILD AIRMASS AND AREAS OF RAIN WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING SOUTH TO NORTH. THE
SURFACE LOW WILL BROADEN AND WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD...CAUSING THE WINDS TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR THE FAR NORTHERN ZONE OF LAKE HURON NEAR THE
STRAITS WHERE STRONGER NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL ON THE
NORTHERN FLANK OF THE LOW. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW
GALE CRITERIA. BOUTS OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...BUT WITH LIGHTER WINDS THAN TODAY. STRONGER
SOUTHWESTERLY/WESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS
A COLDER AIRMASS SPILLS INTO THE REGION...WHEN ADDITIONAL MARINE
HEADLINES WILL BE POSSIBLE.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....KURIMSKI
SHORT TERM...JVC
LONG TERM....DT/RK
MARINE.......DT
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
814 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 441 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A SHARP TROF CENTERED OVER
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH A CLOSED LOW OVER IL. JET STREAK ACROSS
NRN ONTARIO/QUEBEC THAT WAS ONE OF THE BIG DRIVERS FOR THE MDT TO
HVY PCPN ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES LAST NIGHT IS SHIFTING E.
HOWEVER...FCST AREA STILL REMAINS UNDER UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THE DEPARTING JET STREAK AND ALSO IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE LEFT EXIT OF ANOTHER JET STREAK WITH A VERY
SHARP ISOTACH GRADIENT ORIENTED FROM THE LWR OHIO VALLEY TO LAKE MI
AND WRN LWR MI. PCPN MORE STRONGLY TIED TO THE LEFT EXIT OF THE
LATTER JET STREAK HAS BEEN SURGING N UP LAKE MI TODAY AND IS NOW
SPREADING INTO THE ERN FCST AREA.
TONIGHT...COMBINATION OF RATHER STRONG DEEP LAYER FORCING PER
QVECTORS AND LEFT EXIT OF THE WRN GREAT LAKES UPPER JET WHICH IS
TRANSLATING SLIGHTLY EASTWARD WILL SUPPORT BEST CHC OF RAIN OVER THE
ERN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA. SHRA COVERAGE WILL PROBABLY DIMINISH
SOME EARLY THIS EVENING PER RADAR TRENDS...BUT EXPECT NEW
DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR QUICKLY DURING THE EVENING GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF
FORCING. GREATEST COVERAGE SHOULD BE OVERNIGHT WHEN ANOTHER PUSH OF
MOISTURE ADVECTION ALSO OCCURS IN THE 850-700MB LAYER. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SOME LOCALLY MDT TO HVY PCPN. TO THE W...LOW-MID LEVEL
DRYING OCCURRING THIS AFTN WILL HOLD TONIGHT...SO DRY WEATHER WILL
PREVAIL THERE. MORE CHALLENGING PART OF THE FCST IS ACROSS THE CNTRL
WHERE DELINEATION BTWN DRY AND RAIN WILL OCCUR...SO A FAIRLY TIGHT
POP GRADIENT WILL BE PAINTED ACROSS MAINLY DICKINSON AND MARQUETTE
COUNTIES. ON ANOTHER NOTE...THE STRONGEST WINDS ON LAKE SUPERIOR
HAVE OCCURRED CLOSER TO THE UPPER MICHIGAN SHORE TODAY...LIMITING
WAVE HEIGHTS OVER WHAT THEY COULD BE IF THE STRONGER WINDS COVERED
MORE OF THE OPEN WATER. EVEN SO...CONTINUED STEADY WINDS WITH SOME
EXPANSION OF HIGHER SPEEDS OVER THE OPEN WATERS MAY PUSH WAVES UP
SOME TONIGHT...LEADING TO MINOR BEACH EROSION ALONG THE SHORES OF
MARQUETTE AND ALGER COUNTIES INTO WED.
ON WED...QVECTOR DIVERGENCE AND UPPER JET GRADUALLY SHIFT E THOUGH
SOME WEAK FORCING DOES LINGER OVER THE E. WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS IN
THE MORNING OVER THE E WITH ONLY LOW CHC POPS LINGERING IN THE AFTN.
THE W WILL REMAIN DRY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014
THE FORECAST FOR LATE THIS WEEK REMAINS COMPLICATED AS THE UPPER LOW
PERSISTS OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THURSDAY...LEADING TO
THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA UNDER CONTINUED CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT...WHILE THE WESTERN AREA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK
RIDGING. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE EAST UNDER GENERALLY CLOUDY SKIES WED NIGHT INTO
THU...WHILE THE WEST MAY END UP WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.
HOWEVER...EVEN WITH THE EAST SEEING RAIN CHANCES...THIS AREA WILL BE
QUITE FAR REMOVED FROM THE UPPER LOW ITSELF AND ANY RAIN SHOWERS
WILL BE SCATTERED AT BEST...NOT ANYTHING LIKE AN ALL DAY RAIN LIKE
THE EAST HAS SEEN TODAY.
FINALLY...BY FRIDAY...AN UPPER DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER MS VLY AND MERGE WITH THE
GREAT LAKES UPPER LOW. THIS WILL ALLOW THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO
MOVE THROUGH AND ALSO ALLOW FOR MOISTURE TO WRAP AROUND THE MEAN
UPPER LOW AS IT MOVES TO HUDSON BAY. AS SUCH...ALONG AND BEHIND THE
SFC AND UPPER TOUGH THERE WILL BE BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN. IN
FACT...THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH SHOW UP TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH OF
RAIN FOR THE WEST FRI AFTN/EVENING. THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE
COLDER 850MB TEMPS DROPPING IN TO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT AS WELL
AS CYCLONIC UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE WESTERN UPPER PENINSULA. AS
SUCH...WILL RAISE POPS TO HIGH CHC OR LIKELY ACROSS THE WEST. WITH
THE CYCLONIC FLOW AND INDICATIONS FROM THE 12Z ECMWF THAT AN
ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT...WILL MAINTAIN
HIGHER POPS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR DUE TO LAKE ENHANCED PCPN. IN
FACT...IF THE COLDER ECMWF VERIFIES WITH 1000-850MB THICKNESS VALUES
BELOW 1300M...THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF MARQUETTE WILL LIKELY SEE
THEIR FIRST MEASURABLE SNOWFALL OF THE YEAR FRI NIGHT. AS
SUCH...WILL ALSO MENTION SNOW A LITTLE MORE ON FRI NIGHT IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF MARQUETTE.
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...EXPECT LAKE EFFECT PCPN TO GRADUALLY END
SATURDAY/SAT EVENING AS THE LOW MOVES OUT AND HIGH PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE BUILDS IN. WILL MAINTAIN HIGH POPS ACROSS THE
KEWEENAW AND THE EAST DUE TO THE NW PBL FLOW AND 850MB TEMPS -2C TO
-5C. RIDGING BUILDS IN BRIEFLY ON SUNDAY...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
QUIET AND WARMER DAY. HOWEVER...THE NWP START TO DISAGREE ON MON
REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE NEXT TOUGH DIVING DOWN INTO THE
TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE SUPPRESSED THAN
THE ECMWF...WITH THE GFS GENERALLY DRY FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE THE
ECWMF SHOWS AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE FOR RAIN WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM A
LITTLE FURTHER NORTH. FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FCST BUT IT
POSSIBLE THAT POPS WILL NEED TO BE INTRODUCED AT SOME POINT FOR MON.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 813 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014
WITH DRY AIR INTO WRN UPER MI...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT IWD AND CMX.
HOWEVER THERE IS A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR LIFR CIGS TO REAPPEAR LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY WED MORNING AS NOCTURNAL COOLING AND UPSLOPE FLOW MAY
CONSPIRE TO CAUSE STRATUS TO FORM. WITH VERY LOW CONFIDENCE...
CONDITIONS WERE KEPT VFR...BUT DID INCLUDE SCT 200FT CLOUDS AT IWD
WHERE UPSLOPING IS MORE FAVORABLE. KSAW REMAINS IN THE MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER IL. GREATER MOISTURE AND
UPSLOPE FLOW INTO SAW SHOULD KEEP MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 20-30 KT TONIGHT ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REMAINS
STATIONARY. THE LOW STARTS TO WEAKEN ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO
WEAKEN DURING THE DAY AND REMAIN BELOW 20 KT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE ON FRIDAY AND THEN
MERGES WITH THE LOW OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WHILE STRENGTHENING.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR N-NW WINDS TO DEVELOP FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
WINDS COULD INCREASE TO NEAR GALE FORCE SAT BEFORE DIMINISHING
SUNDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...MRD
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...MRD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
728 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014
.AVIATION...
//DISCUSSION...
DRY AIR INTRUDING FROM THE WEST AT MID LEVELS AND CONTINUED RAIN
SHOWERS ADVECTING IN FROM THE SOUTH HAVE PLAYED HAVOC WITH
CONDITIONS EARLY THIS EVENING AS VALUES CONTINUE TO BOUNCE BETWEEN
VFR AND IFR. OVERALL BELIEVE CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR WITH BOUTS OF
MVFR AS CONDITIONS DETERIORATE DOWN TO MVFR AS THE EVENING WEARS
ON AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH ADVECTS IN. THE
AFOREMENTIONED DRY SLOT WILL END MUCH OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY AS
THE EVENING WEARS ON. IN ITS PLACE DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO
THE SOUTH WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH CONTINUED MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
DAY.
//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FEET THIS EVENING...HIGH
CONFIDENCE AFTER 03Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 326 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014
SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN ILLINOIS IS BEGINNING THE PROCESS
OF PROPAGATING BACK INTO THE COLD AIR AS OCCLUSION BEGINS TO TAKE
SHAPE IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE. AS THIS OCCURS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS, A SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS PROGGED TO TAKE SHAPE NEAR
THE TRIPLE POINT OVER WESTERN LOWER MI WHICH SHOULD HELP USHER THE
DEEPER MOISTURE EAST OF THE AREA BY 06Z. IN THE MEANTIME, WEAKLY
FORCED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM CONVEYOR AND ENHANCED BY
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LEAD EDGE OF THE GRADUALLY DESCENDING DRY SLOT
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE NIGHT. THE 16Z HRRR SUGGESTS THIS COULD TAKE UNTIL AS LATE AS
07-08Z FOR EASTERN AREAS, CONSIDERABLY SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED. THIS CERTAINLY SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS WHICH SHOW VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORWARD MOTION FOR THE
UPSTREAM CYCLONE. THE RAINFALL FORECAST WILL BE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY
TO ALLOW FOR A SLOWER EXIT OF SHOWERS AND LINGERING DRIZZLE. LIGHT
COLD ADVECTION WILL GET UNDERWAY ONCE THE DEEPER MOISTURE EXITS EAST
AND THE COOL AIRMASS OVER SOUTHERN MO/IL/IN ADVECTS INTO THE AREA
WITHIN DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW. LOWS IN THE MID 50S ARE
REASONABLE.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY
UPPER CUTOFF LOW MEANDERING ACROSS THE REGION WILL IMPACT OUR
WEATHER LOCALLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MAIN MOISTURE PLUME WILL BE
SHUNTED OFF TO THE EAST...BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER IN LOWER
LEVELS TO SUPPORT BOUTS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR
WEDNESDAY SHOW STEEP LAPSE RATES DEVELOPING BELOW 10KFT SO SHOWER
PRODUCTION WILL LIKELY GET A BOOST FROM DIURNAL PROCESSES DURING THE
AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY...A BIT OF ENHANCED THETA-E AT LOWER TO MID
LEVELS WILL BE DRIVEN WESTWARD FROM THE MAIN MOISTURE PLUME OVER THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS IS DUE TO EASTERLY TRAJECTORIES DEVELOPING AS
THE LOW/MID LEVEL CIRCULATION REORIENTS ITSELF TO OUR SOUTH WHILE
DRIFTING EASTWARD. WITH THE DISORGANIZED NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM
HOWEVER...POPS WILL BE KEPT AT LOW/MID LEVEL CHANCE RANGE.
ADDITIONAL BOUTS OF SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY AS
HIGHER THETA-E CONTINUES TO WRAP INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST. WEAK
SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING AN
END TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES. TEMPERATURES BOTH WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE AS THERE IS NOT MUCH COLD AIR
BENEATH THE UPPER LOW. CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS ELEVATED.
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SWING THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
REGION ON FRIDAY BRINGING YET AGAIN ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS
TO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. WHILE RAIN SHOWERS COULD BE POSSIBLE
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE AREA...THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS LOOKS
TO BE IN THE NORTHERN CWA. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING SOME MUCH NEEDED DRY
WEATHER TO THE AREA. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL BRING A
RETURN OF RAIN ON MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY MILD ON
FRIDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S BEFORE DROPPING DOWN INTO THE MID 50S
FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR TREND STARING OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S ON
FRIDAY NIGHT AND DROPPING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S FOR THE REST OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
MARINE...
MODERATELY STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS. THIS HAS
BROUGHT IN A MILD AIRMASS AND AREAS OF RAIN WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING SOUTH TO NORTH. THE
SURFACE LOW WILL BROADEN AND WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD...CAUSING THE WINDS TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR THE FAR NORTHERN ZONE OF LAKE HURON NEAR THE
STRAITS WHERE STRONGER NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL ON THE
NORTHERN FLANK OF THE LOW. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW
GALE CRITERIA. BOUTS OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...BUT WITH LIGHTER WINDS THAN TODAY. STRONGER
SOUTHWESTERLY/WESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS
A COLDER AIRMASS SPILLS INTO THE REGION...WHEN ADDITIONAL MARINE
HEADLINES WILL BE POSSIBLE.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR
BEACH...UNTIL 8 PM TUESDAY.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....KURIMSKI
SHORT TERM...JVC
LONG TERM....DT/RK
MARINE.......DT
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
605 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2014
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE OVER MISSOURI MOVES SLOWLY NORTHEAST THEN STALLS
OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL ARE ALSO POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN STALLED OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
BUT IT WILL REMAIN MILD THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S. A COOL DOWN IS ANTICIPATED FOR SATURDAY.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 605 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2014
I HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY LOWERED THE CHANCE OF RAIN TONIGHT ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THROUGH MIDNIGHT. I ALSO EXPUNGED
THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT FROM THE FORECAST TONIGHT. TO KEEP ALL OF
THE FORECAST DETAILS IN SYNC I ALSO LOWERED THE QPF SIGNIFICANTLY
TONIGHT AND FOR THAT MATTER TUESDAY. THE UPDATED FORECAST DOES
MATCH NICELY WITH THE LATEST FORECASTS FROM NEAR BY OFFICES
THROUGH TUESDAY.
MY MOTIVATION FOR DOING ALL THIS UPDATING IS THERE IS A 65 KNOT
LOW LEVEL JET HEADING DUE NORTH TOWARD MKE CURRENTLY. WITH SUCH A
STRONG JET GOING SO FAR WEST OF LOWER MICHIGAN... IT IS KEEPING
THE DECENT MOISTURE FLUX OUT OF THIS AREA. THAT IDEA IS SHOWN
NICELY WITH THE RAP 21Z 1000/850 MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS. THE
BOTTOM LINE IS MOST OF THE RAIN WILL MISS SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN
THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT. WE COULD SEE A FEW STRAY SHOWERS OF
COURSE BUT I DO BELIEVE MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHT TOO.
IT DOES LOOK LIKE A SECOND LOW LEVEL JET IS AIMED AS SOUTH CENTRAL
LOWER MICHIGAN TUESDAY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS... SO WE WILL LIKELY
STILL SEE SOME RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT NOT NEARLY AS MUCH WAS WE
WERE THINKING EARLIER.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2014
THE BULK OF THE STORM TOTAL RAIN FROM THIS EVENT FOR SW LWR MI
APPEARS TO OCCUR ON TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW DRAWS CLOSER AND THE
OCCLUSION IMPACTS THE AREA.
MODEL TREND OVER THE LAST TWO RUNS HAS BEEN TO LIFT THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL TONIGHT WITHIN THE TROWAL FARTHER NORTHWEST WHICH
ESSENTIALLY MEANS IT MISSES MOST OF THE CWFA WITH PERHAPS THE
EXCEPTION OF LUDINGTON.
IN FACT MOST MODEL STORM TOTAL RAINFALL SOLUTIONS ACTUALLY SHOW MUCH
OF SW LWR MI IN A RELATIVE MINIMUM AREA OF QPF IN BETWEEN THE
DEFORMATION ZONE TO THE NORTHWEST AND THE STRONG CONVECTION AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT TO THE SOUTH.
THAT SAID...WE SHOULD STILL SEE WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS NEAR AN INCH WITH
LOCALLY AS MUCH AS TWO INCHES. THIS SHOULD NOT CAUSE TOO MUCH OF
A PROBLEM ALTHOUGH WHERE HEAVY RAIN PERSISTS SOME PONDING OF WATER IS
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WHERE LEAVES CLOG STORM DRAINS.
AS FAR AS THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT... THERE IS PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR AVAILABLE BUT INSTABILITY IS LIMITED WITH GENERALLY 500 J/KG
OR LESS OF MU CAPE AVAILABLE. THE COVERAGE OF STORMS SHOULD BE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TONIGHT AND TUES. THE THING TO WATCH WILL BE
THE 60 KNOT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET WHICH COMES IN TONIGHT. THIS
COULD LEAD TO SOME RATHER GUSTY SOUTH TO NORTH MOVING SHOWERS IN THE
WARM SECTOR.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2014
MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED AS A SLOW MOVING
UPPER LOW JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES MERGES WITH A DIGGING
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH BEFORE IT FINALLY MOVES EAST. CYCLONIC FLOW
AND SOME LAKE CONTRIBUTION OF MOISTURE SUPPORTS KEEPING CHANCE OR
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING FOR EACH PERIOD FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. SHORTWAVE RIDGING ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY SHOULD
FINALLY DRY THINGS OUT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MODERATED BY THE
CONTINUOUS CLOUD COVER UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WHEN
CLEARING WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE 30S IN MOST PLACES.
THE FLOW BECOMES HIGHLY AMPLIFIED EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A DEEP TROUGH
AXIS OVER THE NE CONUS AND A SHARP RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS. THERE
COULD BE SOME SHOWERS ON MONDAY AS A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DIGS SOUTH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...BUT THE MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW A LOT OF DRY AIR AT MID LEVELS...SO WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 142 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2014
ALTHOUGH IFR IS EXPECTED MUCH OF THE TIME...CONDITIONS WILL VARY
WIDELY FROM MVFR TO IFR AND LIFR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG OCCASIONALLY LIFT. EXPECT SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON BUT THE STEADY RAIN ALONG WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN...INCLUDING JXN ON
TUESDAY MORNING.
WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.
SOME GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS EVENING AS STRONGER
WINDS FROM ABOVE REACH THE GROUND.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2014
WHILE THE WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
COMES INTO THE AREA... THE SFC WINDS WILL HAVE A BIT OF AN OFFSHORE
COMPONENT. THIS WILL KEEP THE WAVE HEIGHTS DOWN NEAR THE COAST BUT
DESPITE THAT THE WIND SPEEDS ALONE MAY BECOME SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO
WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LATER TONIGHT. WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW.
WEB CAMS SHOW THAT FOG IS NOT A MAJOR ISSUE ALONG THE SW LWR MI
COASTLINE AND WITH THE WINDS INCREASING TONIGHT SEE NO NEED FOR A
MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2014
STORM TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO BE LESS THAN PREVIOUS
THINKING. GENERALLY AROUND A HALF INCH TO 2 INCHES IS EXPECTED. MOST
LOCATIONS WILL SEE LESS THAN AN INCH AND A HALF...WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE TOWARD LUDINGTON. THE TREND IN THE 12Z MODELS IS TO
PUSH THE SLOW-MOVING DEFORMATION BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL
TO THE NORTHWEST. MOST OF THE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO FALL AFTER 00Z
TUESDAY.
RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS
COULD RISE SHARPLY ON TUESDAY. CURRENT STREAMFLOW IN THE GRAND AND
KALAMAZOO RIVER BASINS IS RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL. THERE COULD ALSO BE
BRIEF MINOR URBAN FLOODING AND PONDING OF WATER IN LOW-LYING AREAS.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WDM
SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...EBW
MARINE...MEADE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
430 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 429 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A SHARP TROF ACROSS THE
CNTRL CONUS WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE IN THE BASE OF THE TROF
BECOMING INCREASINGLY SEPARATED FROM THE FLOW IN THE NRN PORTION OF
THE TROF. THE SHARP TROF HAS TAPPED ABUNDANT MOISTURE AS ANALYSIS OF
12Z RAOBS SHOWED PRECIPITABLE WATER UP TO AROUND 1 INCH ACROSS UPPER
MI WHICH IS 175-200PCT OF NORMAL. RESULT HAS BEEN LOW CLOUDS
DOMINATING THIS AFTN. SOME -DZ/-SHRA/SPRINKLES EARLIER TODAY HAVE
ENDED...AND SO FAR THE AFTN HAS BEEN DRY.
TONIGHT INTO TUE...FLOW IN THE UPSTREAM TROF WILL CONTINUE TO
SEPARATE WHICH RESULTS IN THE SRN PORTION DEVELOPING INTO A CLOSED
LOW OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS THE NRN PORTION
SEPARATES...A WELL-DEFINED JET STREAK WILL DEVELOP FROM NRN ONTARIO
INTO QUEBEC TONIGHT...PLACING THE UPPER LAKES UNDER HEALTHY UPPER
DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF JET. DOWN BELOW...A RIBBON OF
STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS DEVELOPS ACROSS THE FCST AREA.
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASING UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES (NEAR
250PCT OF NORMAL) ACROSS THE FAR SE FCST AREA NEAR LAKE MI...STRONG
UPPER DIVERGENCE/FRONTOGENESIS SHOULD RESULT IN A SOLID AREA OF MDT
TO LOCALLY HVY RAINFALL SPREADING NNE ACROSS ROUGHLY THE E HALF OF
THE FCST AREA TONIGHT. BULK OF PCPN FALLS TONIGHT...BUT INCLUDING
LINGERING PCPN TUE...EXPECT PCPN AMOUNTS OF 1 INCH OR MORE FROM
MARQUETTE/DICKINSON COUNTIES EASTWARD WITH TOTALS OF 1.5 TO PERHAPS
2 INCHES TOWARD LAKE MICHIGAN. TYPICAL FOR THESE TYPE OF PCPN EVENTS
WHICH HAVE A STRONG FRONTOGENESIS COMPONENENT...THERE SHOULD BE A
FAIRLY SHARP W EDGE TO THE PCPN AREA. EXAMINATION OF THE NUMEROUS
AVBL MODELS INDICATES THAT THE WRN EDGE OF THE PCPN AREA WILL
PROBABLY BE JUST W OF UPPER MI. SO...WHILE PCPN AMOUNTS WILL TAIL
OFF QUICKLY WESTWARD...LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS WILL BE CARRIED TO
THE WRN EDGE OF UPPER MI.
WITH UPPER JET ACROSS NRN ONTARIO SHIFTING E ALONG WITH THE RIBBON
OF STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS...PCPN WILL DIMINISH FROM W TO
E TUE MORNING AND WILL END OVER THE W. HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER FORCING
REMAINS OVER MUCH OF UPPER MI THRU THE DAY...SO PLAN TO MAINTAIN A
MENTION OF PCPN THRU THE AFTN OVER THE CNTRL AND E...WITH HIGHEST
POPS TOWARD LAKE MI. AN UPPER JET STREAK ON THE E SIDE OF THE MID
LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL BE ALIGNED
FROM INDIANA UP LAKE MI/WRN LWR MI BY LATE IN THE DAY. UPPER
DIVERGENCE IN THE LEFT EXIT OF THIS JET STREAK WILL LIKELY SUPPORT
ANOTHER AREA OF PCPN THAT MAY BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO SRN PORTIONS OF
UPPER MI LATE IN THE DAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2014
TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU...AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW WOBBLES
THROUGH ILLINOIS...THE 12Z GFS AND ESPECIALLY THE 12Z ECMWF HAVE
TRENDED FARTHER TO THE NORTHWEST WITH THE STRONGER 700-300 MB
QVECTOR CONV AHEAD OF A SHRTWV ON THE NRN FLANK OF THE LOW WHILE THE
NAM WAS AN OUTLIER IN KEEPING MOST OF THE CWA DRY. EVEN THOUGH THERE
IS LINGERING UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM...MODELS
CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THAT HIGHER POPS AND QPF ARE WARRANTED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EAST. RAIN CHANCES WILL ALSO LINGER INTO WED NIGHT AND
THU ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF THE CWA AS THE ECMWF/GFS REMAIN FAR
ENOUGH TO THE WEST SO THAT ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE
LOW BRING POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF LIGHT SHOWERS.
THU NIGHT INTO SAT...WITH AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN DEVELOPING...THE WPC
PREFERRED ECMWF SUGGESTS THAT THE WRN RIDGE WILL ALLOW THE NRN
PLAINS TROUGH TO MERGE WITH THE GREAT LAKES LOW AND PERSIST INTO
SATURDAY. AS THE SFC LOW MOVES INTO NE ONTARIO TO NEAR JAMES BAY NW
WINDS AND CAA WILL TAKE OVER BRINGING IN COOLER AIR AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AS DEEPER MOISTURE PREVAILS. ENOUGH COLD AIR
WILL MOVE IN BY FRI NIGHT INTO SAT FOR LAKE ENHANCED RAIN POTENTIAL
FOR LOCATIONS FAVORED BY NW OR NNW FLOW.
SUN-MON...THE GFS/GEFS/ECMWF SUGGEST THAT THE TROUGH WILL SLIDE FAR
ENOUGH EAST TO REDUCE RAIN CHANCES WHILE NNW MID LEVEL LOW LINGERS.
TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 122 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2014
WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE NOW OVER THE AREA....EXPECT GENERALLY LOW
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL TODAY AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE AFTN/EVENING...RESULTING IN WINDS BECOMING N TO NE. AT
THE SAME TIME...WIDESPREAD RAIN NOW ORGANIZING AND LIFTING NNE THRU
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA TONIGHT. UPSLOPE
WIND AND RAIN WILL RESULT IN IFR CONDITIONS AT KCMX AND LIFR AT
KIWD/KSAW AS WIND DIRECTION WILL BE A MORE IDEAL UPSLOPE DIRECTION
AT THOSE TERMINALS. EXPECT HEAVIEST RAINFALL AND MORE RESTRICTED VIS
AT KSAW. RAIN WILL END W TO E TUE MORNING/EARLY AFTN. INFLUX OF
DRIER AIR WILL ALLOW KIWD/KCMX TO IMPROVE TO MVFR.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 429 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2014
WEAK PRES GRADIENT AND LIGHT WINDS MOSTLY UNDER 10KT WILL BE THE
RULE INITIALLY TONIGHT. THEN...AS LOW PRESSURE OVER SW MISSOURI
SLOWLY LIFTS NE...N TO NE WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE.
EXPECT N TO NE WINDS UP TO 20KT ON WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND UP TO 25KT
ON ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THE LOW WILL THEN WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS NE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WED/THU...ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH.
WINDS SHOULD BE UNDER 10KT BY THU. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKING ACROSS SRN CANADA THU WILL THEN MERGE WITH THE REMNANT
GREAT LAKES LOW ON FRI IN THE VICINITY OF JAMES BAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN W TO NW WINDS INCREASING INTO THE 15-25KT RANGE ON FRI AND
CONTINUING INTO SAT AS THE LOW MOVES LITTLE.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
415 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 404 AM EDT MON OCT 13 2014
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW DEEPENING UPR TROF
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AS POTENT SHRTWV DIGS INTO THE SRN PLAINS.
WITHIN THIS LARGER TROF...THERE IS A WEAKER SHRTWV LIFTING NEWD THRU
THE NRN PLAINS...AND SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS IN THE LARGER SCALE
ISENTROPIC ASCENT/SW FLOW/AREA OF H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC BTWN THAT
SHRTWV AND DEPARTING HI PRES OVER NEW ENGLAND HAVE MOVED INTO THE
UPR LKS DESPITE VERY DRY H7-9 LYR SHOWN ON THE 00Z GRB RAOB. THERE
IS ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS OVER MN UNDER THE SHARPER DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC CLOSER TO THE SHRTWV LIFTING NEWD IN THE NRN
PLAINS...BUT THERE IS LTL IN THE WAY OF PCPN BTWN THE ACTIVITY IN
MN/THE UPR LKS AND MORE WDSPRD SHRA/TS IN THE SCENTRAL PLAINS
ASSOCIATED WITH DEEPER SHRTWV IN THAT AREA DESPITE PWATS AS HI AS AN
INCH /UP TO 150 PCT OF NORMAL/ AT QUAD CITIES IOWA.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS THRU TNGT ARE FOCUSED ON POPS. STILL LOOKS LIKE
THE MOST WDSPRD...HEAVY RA WL IMPACT THE E HALF OF UPR MI TNGT
CLOSER TO RIBBON OF HIER PWAT/DVLPG FGEN. PER NCEP GUIDANCE...
FOLLOWED THE 00Z NAM/12Z ECMWF MOST CLOSELY FOR FCST DETAILS.
TODAY...AREA OF DEEPER MSTR/SOMEWHAT SHARPER ISENTROPIC ASCENT/AXIS
OF H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC IS FCST TO MOVE NEWD AND PASS OUT OF UPR MI
BY NOON AND GIVE WAY TO SOME WEAK DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC/DRYING ABV
H7...SO EXPECT THE ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS IMPACTING UPR MI TO DIMINISH IN
THE AFTN. MEANWHILE...AS SHRTWV IN THE NRN PLAINS/ACCOMPANYING
QVECTOR CNVGC CONTINUES TO THE NE AND INTO NW ONTARIO...AREA OF
SHOWERS IN MN WL FOLLOW AND TEND TO MISS ALL BUT WRN LK SUP. BUT
WITH PERSISTENT SLY FLOW OF MOISTER AIR TO THE S...EXPECT OVERCAST
SKIES DESPITE THE DIMINISHING PCPN TREND. LATE IN THE DAY TOWARD 00Z
TUE...COMBINATION OF INCRSG UPR DVGC IN RRQ OF 100KT H3 JET MAX
SHIFTING INTO NW ONTARIO WITH NRN SHRTWV...AREA OF DEEP LYR QVECTOR
CNVGC APRCHG FM THE S AND ARRIVAL OF AXIS OF H85-7 FGEN IN COMMA
TAIL OF DEPARTING SHRTWV IN ONTARIO WL BRING A RETURN OF HIER POPS
TO AREAS NEAR THE WI BORDER/SCENTRAL.
TNGT...DEEP SSW FLOW E OF UPR TROF AXIS IS PROGGED TO LIFT PWAT TO
NEAR 1.5 INCHES OVER THE FAR SE CWA NEAR LK MI...NEARLY 250 PCT OF
NORMAL. IN CONCERT WITH UPR DVGC IN RRQ OF INTENSIFYING H3 JET MAX
IN NW ONTARIO AND AXIS OF SHARP H85-7 FGEN/ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON THE
300-305K SFCS /ABOUT H8-7/ NEAR FRONTAL ZN THAT IS FCST TO IMPACT
THE SE PORTION OF THE FA...EXPECT CATEGORICAL POPS/SOME MDT TO AT
TIMES HEAVY RA IN THIS AREA. THE WRN EXTENT OF THE HIER POPS/
HEAVIER RA IS SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION BECAUSE THE MAIN CUTOFF LO
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MORE VIGOROUS SRN BRANCH SHRTWV AND ACCOMPANYING
SHARPER DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC ARE PROGGED TO STAY S OF THE UPR
LKS...WITH UPR DVGC THE MAIN FORCING MECHANISM FOR PCPN TO THE W.
THE 00Z NAM/12Z ECMWF SHOW SUFFICIENT DRYING OVER THE W IN THE WAKE
OF THE SHRTWV MOVING INTO ONTARIO AND SO FAR W OF THE FRONTAL ZN TO
SUPPORT LTL IF ANY PCPN OVER THE FAR W...SO TENDED TO LOWER POPS IN
THIS AREA. OTRW...ADDED SOME FOG OVER THE NCENTRAL WITH UPSLOPE NE
FLOW AND ACRS THE E WHERE THE PWAT IS FCST SO HI.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2014
TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU...AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW WOBBLES
THROUGH ILLINOIS...THE 12Z GFS AND ESPECIALLY THE 12Z ECMWF HAVE
TRENDED FARTHER TO THE NORTHWEST WITH THE STRONGER 700-300 MB
QVECTOR CONV AHEAD OF A SHRTWV ON THE NRN FLANK OF THE LOW WHILE THE
NAM WAS AN OUTLIER IN KEEPING MOST OF THE CWA DRY. EVEN THOUGH THERE
IS LINGERING UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM...MODELS
CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THAT HIGHER POPS AND QPF ARE WARRANTED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EAST. RAIN CHANCES WILL ALSO LINGER INTO WED NIGHT AND
THU ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF THE CWA AS THE ECMWF/GFS REMAIN FAR
ENOUGH TO THE WEST SO THAT ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE
LOW BRING POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF LIGHT SHOWERS.
THU NIGHT INTO SAT...WITH AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN DEVELOPING...THE WPC
PREFERRED ECMWF SUGGESTS THAT THE WRN RIDGE WILL ALLOW THE NRN
PLAINS TROUGH TO MERGE WITH THE GREAT LAKES LOW AND PERSIST INTO
SATURDAY. AS THE SFC LOW MOVES INTO NE ONTARIO TO NEAR JAMES BAY NW
WINDS AND CAA WILL TAKE OVER BRINGING IN COOLER AIR AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AS DEEPER MOISTURE PREVAILS. ENOUGH COLD AIR
WILL MOVE IN BY FRI NIGHT INTO SAT FOR LAKE ENHANCED RAIN POTENTIAL
FOR LOCATIONS FAVORED BY NW OR NNW FLOW.
SUN-MON...THE GFS/GEFS/ECMWF SUGGEST THAT THE TROUGH WILL SLIDE FAR
ENOUGH EAST TO REDUCE RAIN CHANCES WHILE NNW MID LEVEL LOW LINGERS.
TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 122 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2014
WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE NOW OVER THE AREA....EXPECT GENERALLY LOW
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL TODAY AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE AFTN/EVENING...RESULTING IN WINDS BECOMING N TO NE. AT
THE SAME TIME...WIDESPREAD RAIN NOW ORGANIZING AND LIFTING NNE THRU
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA TONIGHT. UPSLOPE
WIND AND RAIN WILL RESULT IN IFR CONDITIONS AT KCMX AND LIFR AT
KIWD/KSAW AS WIND DIRECTION WILL BE A MORE IDEAL UPSLOPE DIRECTION
AT THOSE TERMINALS. EXPECT HEAVIEST RAINFALL AND MORE RESTRICTED VIS
AT KSAW. RAIN WILL END W TO E TUE MORNING/EARLY AFTN. INFLUX OF
DRIER AIR WILL ALLOW KIWD/KCMX TO IMPROVE TO MVFR.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT MON OCT 13 2014
A WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA WILL LEAD TO WINDS
WILL DROPPING BELOW 10KT ACROSS THE LAKE BY THIS AFTERNOON. AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY LIFTS NE...WINDS WILL BECOME N TO NE TONIGHT
AND WILL INCREASE LATE. TUE AND TUE NIGHT...EXPECT N TO NE WINDS UP
TO 20KT ON WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND UP TO 25KT ON ERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
THE LOW WILL THEN WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS NE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WED/THU...ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH. WINDS SHOULD BE UNDER
10KT BY THU. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS SRN CANADA
THU WILL THEN MERGE WITH THE REMNANT GREAT LAKES LOW ON FRI IN THE
VICINITY OF JAMES BAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING W TO NW INTO
THE 15-25KT RANGE ON FRI.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...TITUS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
122 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 404 AM EDT MON OCT 13 2014
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW DEEPENING UPR TROF
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AS POTENT SHRTWV DIGS INTO THE SRN PLAINS.
WITHIN THIS LARGER TROF...THERE IS A WEAKER SHRTWV LIFTING NEWD THRU
THE NRN PLAINS...AND SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS IN THE LARGER SCALE
ISENTROPIC ASCENT/SW FLOW/AREA OF H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC BTWN THAT
SHRTWV AND DEPARTING HI PRES OVER NEW ENGLAND HAVE MOVED INTO THE
UPR LKS DESPITE VERY DRY H7-9 LYR SHOWN ON THE 00Z GRB RAOB. THERE
IS ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS OVER MN UNDER THE SHARPER DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC CLOSER TO THE SHRTWV LIFTING NEWD IN THE NRN
PLAINS...BUT THERE IS LTL IN THE WAY OF PCPN BTWN THE ACTIVITY IN
MN/THE UPR LKS AND MORE WDSPRD SHRA/TS IN THE SCENTRAL PLAINS
ASSOCIATED WITH DEEPER SHRTWV IN THAT AREA DESPITE PWATS AS HI AS AN
INCH /UP TO 150 PCT OF NORMAL/ AT QUAD CITIES IOWA.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS THRU TNGT ARE FOCUSED ON POPS. STILL LOOKS LIKE
THE MOST WDSPRD...HEAVY RA WL IMPACT THE E HALF OF UPR MI TNGT
CLOSER TO RIBBON OF HIER PWAT/DVLPG FGEN. PER NCEP GUIDANCE...
FOLLOWED THE 00Z NAM/12Z ECMWF MOST CLOSELY FOR FCST DETAILS.
TODAY...AREA OF DEEPER MSTR/SOMEWHAT SHARPER ISENTROPIC ASCENT/AXIS
OF H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC IS FCST TO MOVE NEWD AND PASS OUT OF UPR MI
BY NOON AND GIVE WAY TO SOME WEAK DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC/DRYING ABV
H7...SO EXPECT THE ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS IMPACTING UPR MI TO DIMINISH IN
THE AFTN. MEANWHILE...AS SHRTWV IN THE NRN PLAINS/ACCOMPANYING
QVECTOR CNVGC CONTINUES TO THE NE AND INTO NW ONTARIO...AREA OF
SHOWERS IN MN WL FOLLOW AND TEND TO MISS ALL BUT WRN LK SUP. BUT
WITH PERSISTENT SLY FLOW OF MOISTER AIR TO THE S...EXPECT OVERCAST
SKIES DESPITE THE DIMINISHING PCPN TREND. LATE IN THE DAY TOWARD 00Z
TUE...COMBINATION OF INCRSG UPR DVGC IN RRQ OF 100KT H3 JET MAX
SHIFTING INTO NW ONTARIO WITH NRN SHRTWV...AREA OF DEEP LYR QVECTOR
CNVGC APRCHG FM THE S AND ARRIVAL OF AXIS OF H85-7 FGEN IN COMMA
TAIL OF DEPARTING SHRTWV IN ONTARIO WL BRING A RETURN OF HIER POPS
TO AREAS NEAR THE WI BORDER/SCENTRAL.
TNGT...DEEP SSW FLOW E OF UPR TROF AXIS IS PROGGED TO LIFT PWAT TO
NEAR 1.5 INCHES OVER THE FAR SE CWA NEAR LK MI...NEARLY 250 PCT OF
NORMAL. IN CONCERT WITH UPR DVGC IN RRQ OF INTENSIFYING H3 JET MAX
IN NW ONTARIO AND AXIS OF SHARP H85-7 FGEN/ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON THE
300-305K SFCS /ABOUT H8-7/ NEAR FRONTAL ZN THAT IS FCST TO IMPACT
THE SE PORTION OF THE FA...EXPECT CATEGORICAL POPS/SOME MDT TO AT
TIMES HEAVY RA IN THIS AREA. THE WRN EXTENT OF THE HIER POPS/
HEAVIER RA IS SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION BECAUSE THE MAIN CUTOFF LO
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MORE VIGOROUS SRN BRANCH SHRTWV AND ACCOMPANYING
SHARPER DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC ARE PROGGED TO STAY S OF THE UPR
LKS...WITH UPR DVGC THE MAIN FORCING MECHANISM FOR PCPN TO THE W.
THE 00Z NAM/12Z ECMWF SHOW SUFFICIENT DRYING OVER THE W IN THE WAKE
OF THE SHRTWV MOVING INTO ONTARIO AND SO FAR W OF THE FRONTAL ZN TO
SUPPORT LTL IF ANY PCPN OVER THE FAR W...SO TENDED TO LOWER POPS IN
THIS AREA. OTRW...ADDED SOME FOG OVER THE NCENTRAL WITH UPSLOPE NE
FLOW AND ACRS THE E WHERE THE PWAT IS FCST SO HI.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT MON OCT 13 2014
TUE WILL SEE DECREASING RAIN CHANCES AS AN FGEN BAND ALONG AN
INVERTED SFC TROUGH MOVES E OF THE CWA. MODELS VARY ON EXACTLY WHERE
THE BAND WILL BE AT IN THE MORNING AND HOW FAST IT WILL MOVE E...BUT
AT LEAST FAR NWRN UPPER MI /FROM IWD THROUGH THE KEWEENAW/ WILL BE
DRY ALL DAY PER THE FARTHER W 00Z/13 GFS SOLUTION. THE 12Z/12 ECMWF
ONLY HAS 0.02 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE MORNING AT ERY. THE 00Z/13 NAM
TAKES THE MIDDLE GROUND...WHICH MAKES IT PREFERABLE GIVEN A LACK OF
PREFERENCE FOR THE GFS VS THE ECMWF. ALL THREE OF THESE MODELS HAVE
THE CWA DRY FROM 18Z THROUGH THE REST OF TUE.
AN ADDITIONAL CONCERN...ESPECIALLY DURING THE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT TIME PERIOD IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR LARGE WAVES TO DEVELOP ON
THE TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE INVERTED TROUGH. THESE WAVES
WOULD DEVELOP ON GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS....ALLOWING
WAVES TO REACH AROUND 8 FEET. THIS COULD CAUSE MINOR BEACH EROSION
ALONG THE MARQUETTE AND ALGER COUNTY SHORELINES.
THE ECMWF AND NAM KEEP THE CWA DRY FOR THE MOST PART TUE NIGHT
THROUGH WED WHILE THE GFS BRINGS LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS BACK INTO THE FAR
SERN CWA THROUGH THAT PERIOD. THE REASON FOR THE DISCREPANCY IS THAT
THE GFS SHIFTS THE UPPER LOW FROM CENTRAL IL TO SRN MI WHILE THE
OTHER MODELS KEEP IT OVER IL. BECAUSE OF THIS...THE ECMWF/NAM KEEP
THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING N OF THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE CWA...WHICH
KEEPS THE AIRMASS MUCH DRIER AND FORCING FARTHER S. OPTED TO LOWER
POPS SOME DURING THE PERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR THE DRIER TREND IN
GUIDANCE. AS HEIGHTS RISE DUE TO THE UPPER RIDGE MOVING N OF THE LOW
AND THE LOW ITSELF FILLING...THE AIRMASS WARMS PRETTY CONSIDERABLY.
850MB TEMPS AT 12Z TUE LOOK TO RANGE FROM 4C W TO 8C E...BUT
INCREASE TO AROUND 11 C OVER THE ENTIRE AREA BY 00Z THU.
DETAILS ARE MUCH LESS CERTAIN AFTER WED...BUT OVERALL THE MODELS
SHOW THE UPPER LOW LIFTING QUICKLY N AND MERGING WITH AN INCOMING
TROUGH THAT DEEPENS INTO A CLOSED LOW /OR AT LEAST A DEEP TROUGH/ AS
IT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION FRI AND SAT. CANNOT GET TOO SPECIFIC AT
THIS POINT GIVEN LACK OF CONFIDENCE...BUT CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE
HIGHER WED NIGHT INTO SAT. A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THU NIGHT OR
FRI WILL BRING COOLER CONDITIONS FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS
HAVE THEN BEEN TRENDING DRIER FOR SUN...SO WILL REFLECT THAT IN THE
FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 122 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2014
WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE NOW OVER THE AREA....EXPECT GENERALLY LOW
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL TODAY AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE AFTN/EVENING...RESULTING IN WINDS BECOMING N TO NE. AT
THE SAME TIME...WIDESPREAD RAIN NOW ORGANIZING AND LIFTING NNE THRU
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA TONIGHT. UPSLOPE
WIND AND RAIN WILL RESULT IN IFR CONDITIONS AT KCMX AND LIFR AT
KIWD/KSAW AS WIND DIRECTION WILL BE A MORE IDEAL UPSLOPE DIRECTION
AT THOSE TERMINALS. EXPECT HEAVIEST RAINFALL AND MORE RESTRICTED VIS
AT KSAW. RAIN WILL END W TO E TUE MORNING/EARLY AFTN. INFLUX OF
DRIER AIR WILL ALLOW KIWD/KCMX TO IMPROVE TO MVFR.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT MON OCT 13 2014
A WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA WILL LEAD TO WINDS
WILL DROPPING BELOW 10KT ACROSS THE LAKE BY THIS AFTERNOON. AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY LIFTS NE...WINDS WILL BECOME N TO NE TONIGHT
AND WILL INCREASE LATE. TUE AND TUE NIGHT...EXPECT N TO NE WINDS UP
TO 20KT ON WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND UP TO 25KT ON ERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
THE LOW WILL THEN WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS NE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WED/THU...ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH. WINDS SHOULD BE UNDER
10KT BY THU. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS SRN CANADA
THU WILL THEN MERGE WITH THE REMNANT GREAT LAKES LOW ON FRI IN THE
VICINITY OF JAMES BAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING W TO NW INTO
THE 15-25KT RANGE ON FRI.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...TITUS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
724 AM EDT MON OCT 13 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 404 AM EDT MON OCT 13 2014
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW DEEPENING UPR TROF
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AS POTENT SHRTWV DIGS INTO THE SRN PLAINS.
WITHIN THIS LARGER TROF...THERE IS A WEAKER SHRTWV LIFTING NEWD THRU
THE NRN PLAINS...AND SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS IN THE LARGER SCALE
ISENTROPIC ASCENT/SW FLOW/AREA OF H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC BTWN THAT
SHRTWV AND DEPARTING HI PRES OVER NEW ENGLAND HAVE MOVED INTO THE
UPR LKS DESPITE VERY DRY H7-9 LYR SHOWN ON THE 00Z GRB RAOB. THERE
IS ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS OVER MN UNDER THE SHARPER DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC CLOSER TO THE SHRTWV LIFTING NEWD IN THE NRN
PLAINS...BUT THERE IS LTL IN THE WAY OF PCPN BTWN THE ACTIVITY IN
MN/THE UPR LKS AND MORE WDSPRD SHRA/TS IN THE SCENTRAL PLAINS
ASSOCIATED WITH DEEPER SHRTWV IN THAT AREA DESPITE PWATS AS HI AS AN
INCH /UP TO 150 PCT OF NORMAL/ AT QUAD CITIES IOWA.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS THRU TNGT ARE FOCUSED ON POPS. STILL LOOKS LIKE
THE MOST WDSPRD...HEAVY RA WL IMPACT THE E HALF OF UPR MI TNGT
CLOSER TO RIBBON OF HIER PWAT/DVLPG FGEN. PER NCEP GUIDANCE...
FOLLOWED THE 00Z NAM/12Z ECMWF MOST CLOSELY FOR FCST DETAILS.
TODAY...AREA OF DEEPER MSTR/SOMEWHAT SHARPER ISENTROPIC ASCENT/AXIS
OF H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC IS FCST TO MOVE NEWD AND PASS OUT OF UPR MI
BY NOON AND GIVE WAY TO SOME WEAK DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC/DRYING ABV
H7...SO EXPECT THE ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS IMPACTING UPR MI TO DIMINISH IN
THE AFTN. MEANWHILE...AS SHRTWV IN THE NRN PLAINS/ACCOMPANYING
QVECTOR CNVGC CONTINUES TO THE NE AND INTO NW ONTARIO...AREA OF
SHOWERS IN MN WL FOLLOW AND TEND TO MISS ALL BUT WRN LK SUP. BUT
WITH PERSISTENT SLY FLOW OF MOISTER AIR TO THE S...EXPECT OVERCAST
SKIES DESPITE THE DIMINISHING PCPN TREND. LATE IN THE DAY TOWARD 00Z
TUE...COMBINATION OF INCRSG UPR DVGC IN RRQ OF 100KT H3 JET MAX
SHIFTING INTO NW ONTARIO WITH NRN SHRTWV...AREA OF DEEP LYR QVECTOR
CNVGC APRCHG FM THE S AND ARRIVAL OF AXIS OF H85-7 FGEN IN COMMA
TAIL OF DEPARTING SHRTWV IN ONTARIO WL BRING A RETURN OF HIER POPS
TO AREAS NEAR THE WI BORDER/SCENTRAL.
TNGT...DEEP SSW FLOW E OF UPR TROF AXIS IS PROGGED TO LIFT PWAT TO
NEAR 1.5 INCHES OVER THE FAR SE CWA NEAR LK MI...NEARLY 250 PCT OF
NORMAL. IN CONCERT WITH UPR DVGC IN RRQ OF INTENSIFYING H3 JET MAX
IN NW ONTARIO AND AXIS OF SHARP H85-7 FGEN/ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON THE
300-305K SFCS /ABOUT H8-7/ NEAR FRONTAL ZN THAT IS FCST TO IMPACT
THE SE PORTION OF THE FA...EXPECT CATEGORICAL POPS/SOME MDT TO AT
TIMES HEAVY RA IN THIS AREA. THE WRN EXTENT OF THE HIER POPS/
HEAVIER RA IS SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION BECAUSE THE MAIN CUTOFF LO
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MORE VIGOROUS SRN BRANCH SHRTWV AND ACCOMPANYING
SHARPER DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC ARE PROGGED TO STAY S OF THE UPR
LKS...WITH UPR DVGC THE MAIN FORCING MECHANISM FOR PCPN TO THE W.
THE 00Z NAM/12Z ECMWF SHOW SUFFICIENT DRYING OVER THE W IN THE WAKE
OF THE SHRTWV MOVING INTO ONTARIO AND SO FAR W OF THE FRONTAL ZN TO
SUPPORT LTL IF ANY PCPN OVER THE FAR W...SO TENDED TO LOWER POPS IN
THIS AREA. OTRW...ADDED SOME FOG OVER THE NCENTRAL WITH UPSLOPE NE
FLOW AND ACRS THE E WHERE THE PWAT IS FCST SO HI.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT MON OCT 13 2014
TUE WILL SEE DECREASING RAIN CHANCES AS AN FGEN BAND ALONG AN
INVERTED SFC TROUGH MOVES E OF THE CWA. MODELS VARY ON EXACTLY WHERE
THE BAND WILL BE AT IN THE MORNING AND HOW FAST IT WILL MOVE E...BUT
AT LEAST FAR NWRN UPPER MI /FROM IWD THROUGH THE KEWEENAW/ WILL BE
DRY ALL DAY PER THE FARTHER W 00Z/13 GFS SOLUTION. THE 12Z/12 ECMWF
ONLY HAS 0.02 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE MORNING AT ERY. THE 00Z/13 NAM
TAKES THE MIDDLE GROUND...WHICH MAKES IT PREFERABLE GIVEN A LACK OF
PREFERENCE FOR THE GFS VS THE ECMWF. ALL THREE OF THESE MODELS HAVE
THE CWA DRY FROM 18Z THROUGH THE REST OF TUE.
AN ADDITIONAL CONCERN...ESPECIALLY DURING THE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT TIME PERIOD IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR LARGE WAVES TO DEVELOP ON
THE TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE INVERTED TROUGH. THESE WAVES
WOULD DEVELOP ON GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS....ALLOWING
WAVES TO REACH AROUND 8 FEET. THIS COULD CAUSE MINOR BEACH EROSION
ALONG THE MARQUETTE AND ALGER COUNTY SHORELINES.
THE ECMWF AND NAM KEEP THE CWA DRY FOR THE MOST PART TUE NIGHT
THROUGH WED WHILE THE GFS BRINGS LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS BACK INTO THE FAR
SERN CWA THROUGH THAT PERIOD. THE REASON FOR THE DISCREPANCY IS THAT
THE GFS SHIFTS THE UPPER LOW FROM CENTRAL IL TO SRN MI WHILE THE
OTHER MODELS KEEP IT OVER IL. BECAUSE OF THIS...THE ECMWF/NAM KEEP
THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING N OF THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE CWA...WHICH
KEEPS THE AIRMASS MUCH DRIER AND FORCING FARTHER S. OPTED TO LOWER
POPS SOME DURING THE PERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR THE DRIER TREND IN
GUIDANCE. AS HEIGHTS RISE DUE TO THE UPPER RIDGE MOVING N OF THE LOW
AND THE LOW ITSELF FILLING...THE AIRMASS WARMS PRETTY CONSIDERABLY.
850MB TEMPS AT 12Z TUE LOOK TO RANGE FROM 4C W TO 8C E...BUT
INCREASE TO AROUND 11 C OVER THE ENTIRE AREA BY 00Z THU.
DETAILS ARE MUCH LESS CERTAIN AFTER WED...BUT OVERALL THE MODELS
SHOW THE UPPER LOW LIFTING QUICKLY N AND MERGING WITH AN INCOMING
TROUGH THAT DEEPENS INTO A CLOSED LOW /OR AT LEAST A DEEP TROUGH/ AS
IT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION FRI AND SAT. CANNOT GET TOO SPECIFIC AT
THIS POINT GIVEN LACK OF CONFIDENCE...BUT CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE
HIGHER WED NIGHT INTO SAT. A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THU NIGHT OR
FRI WILL BRING COOLER CONDITIONS FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS
HAVE THEN BEEN TRENDING DRIER FOR SUN...SO WILL REFLECT THAT IN THE
FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 723 AM EDT MON OCT 13 2014
WITH INFLUX OF MORE LLVL MSTR IN PERSISTENT SLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF
SLOWLY ARPCHG COLD FNT...EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE TODAY AT
ALL 3 TAF SITES EVEN THOUGH ISOLD -SHRA WL TEND TO DRIFT TO THE NE. A
MORE WDSPRD RA WL DVLP TNGT AND IMPACT MAINLY THE E HALF OF UPR MI
FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF COLD FNT AND WSHFT TO AN UPSLOPE N DIRECTION
TNGT. IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AT ALL 3 AIRPORTS...ESPECIALLY AT SAW
WHICH WL BE CLOSER TO SHARPER DYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR THE RA AND DEEPER
MSTR. LIFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME FOG ARE A GOOD BET FOR THIS SITE MUCH
OF THE NGT. DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY DRY AIR MOVES INTO WRN UPR MI
LATE...CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TO MVFR AT IWD AND CMX LATE IN THE TAF
PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT MON OCT 13 2014
A WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA WILL LEAD TO WINDS
WILL DROPPING BELOW 10KT ACROSS THE LAKE BY THIS AFTERNOON. AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY LIFTS NE...WINDS WILL BECOME N TO NE TONIGHT
AND WILL INCREASE LATE. TUE AND TUE NIGHT...EXPECT N TO NE WINDS UP
TO 20KT ON WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND UP TO 25KT ON ERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
THE LOW WILL THEN WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS NE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WED/THU...ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH. WINDS SHOULD BE UNDER
10KT BY THU. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS SRN CANADA
THU WILL THEN MERGE WITH THE REMNANT GREAT LAKES LOW ON FRI IN THE
VICINITY OF JAMES BAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING W TO NW INTO
THE 15-25KT RANGE ON FRI.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...TITUS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
405 AM EDT MON OCT 13 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 404 AM EDT MON OCT 13 2014
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW DEEPENING UPR TROF
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AS POTENT SHRTWV DIGS INTO THE SRN PLAINS.
WITHIN THIS LARGER TROF...THERE IS A WEAKER SHRTWV LIFTING NEWD THRU
THE NRN PLAINS...AND SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS IN THE LARGER SCALE
ISENTROPIC ASCENT/SW FLOW/AREA OF H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC BTWN THAT
SHRTWV AND DEPARTING HI PRES OVER NEW ENGLAND HAVE MOVED INTO THE
UPR LKS DESPITE VERY DRY H7-9 LYR SHOWN ON THE 00Z GRB RAOB. THERE
IS ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS OVER MN UNDER THE SHARPER DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC CLOSER TO THE SHRTWV LIFTING NEWD IN THE NRN
PLAINS...BUT THERE IS LTL IN THE WAY OF PCPN BTWN THE ACTIVITY IN
MN/THE UPR LKS AND MORE WDSPRD SHRA/TS IN THE SCENTRAL PLAINS
ASSOCIATED WITH DEEPER SHRTWV IN THAT AREA DESPITE PWATS AS HI AS AN
INCH /UP TO 150 PCT OF NORMAL/ AT QUAD CITIES IOWA.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS THRU TNGT ARE FOCUSED ON POPS. STILL LOOKS LIKE
THE MOST WDSPRD...HEAVY RA WL IMPACT THE E HALF OF UPR MI TNGT
CLOSER TO RIBBON OF HIER PWAT/DVLPG FGEN. PER NCEP GUIDANCE...
FOLLOWED THE 00Z NAM/12Z ECMWF MOST CLOSELY FOR FCST DETAILS.
TODAY...AREA OF DEEPER MSTR/SOMEWHAT SHARPER ISENTROPIC ASCENT/AXIS
OF H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC IS FCST TO MOVE NEWD AND PASS OUT OF UPR MI
BY NOON AND GIVE WAY TO SOME WEAK DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC/DRYING ABV
H7...SO EXPECT THE ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS IMPACTING UPR MI TO DIMINISH IN
THE AFTN. MEANWHILE...AS SHRTWV IN THE NRN PLAINS/ACCOMPANYING
QVECTOR CNVGC CONTINUES TO THE NE AND INTO NW ONTARIO...AREA OF
SHOWERS IN MN WL FOLLOW AND TEND TO MISS ALL BUT WRN LK SUP. BUT
WITH PERSISTENT SLY FLOW OF MOISTER AIR TO THE S...EXPECT OVERCAST
SKIES DESPITE THE DIMINISHING PCPN TREND. LATE IN THE DAY TOWARD 00Z
TUE...COMBINATION OF INCRSG UPR DVGC IN RRQ OF 100KT H3 JET MAX
SHIFTING INTO NW ONTARIO WITH NRN SHRTWV...AREA OF DEEP LYR QVECTOR
CNVGC APRCHG FM THE S AND ARRIVAL OF AXIS OF H85-7 FGEN IN COMMA
TAIL OF DEPARTING SHRTWV IN ONTARIO WL BRING A RETURN OF HIER POPS
TO AREAS NEAR THE WI BORDER/SCENTRAL.
TNGT...DEEP SSW FLOW E OF UPR TROF AXIS IS PROGGED TO LIFT PWAT TO
NEAR 1.5 INCHES OVER THE FAR SE CWA NEAR LK MI...NEARLY 250 PCT OF
NORMAL. IN CONCERT WITH UPR DVGC IN RRQ OF INTENSIFYING H3 JET MAX
IN NW ONTARIO AND AXIS OF SHARP H85-7 FGEN/ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON THE
300-305K SFCS /ABOUT H8-7/ NEAR FRONTAL ZN THAT IS FCST TO IMPACT
THE SE PORTION OF THE FA...EXPECT CATEGORICAL POPS/SOME MDT TO AT
TIMES HEAVY RA IN THIS AREA. THE WRN EXTENT OF THE HIER POPS/
HEAVIER RA IS SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION BECAUSE THE MAIN CUTOFF LO
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MORE VIGOROUS SRN BRANCH SHRTWV AND ACCOMPANYING
SHARPER DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC ARE PROGGED TO STAY S OF THE UPR
LKS...WITH UPR DVGC THE MAIN FORCING MECHANISM FOR PCPN TO THE W.
THE 00Z NAM/12Z ECMWF SHOW SUFFICIENT DRYING OVER THE W IN THE WAKE
OF THE SHRTWV MOVING INTO ONTARIO AND SO FAR W OF THE FRONTAL ZN TO
SUPPORT LTL IF ANY PCPN OVER THE FAR W...SO TENDED TO LOWER POPS IN
THIS AREA. OTRW...ADDED SOME FOG OVER THE NCENTRAL WITH UPSLOPE NE
FLOW AND ACRS THE E WHERE THE PWAT IS FCST SO HI.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT MON OCT 13 2014
TUE WILL SEE DECREASING RAIN CHANCES AS AN FGEN BAND ALONG AN
INVERTED SFC TROUGH MOVES E OF THE CWA. MODELS VARY ON EXACTLY WHERE
THE BAND WILL BE AT IN THE MORNING AND HOW FAST IT WILL MOVE E...BUT
AT LEAST FAR NWRN UPPER MI /FROM IWD THROUGH THE KEWEENAW/ WILL BE
DRY ALL DAY PER THE FARTHER W 00Z/13 GFS SOLUTION. THE 12Z/12 ECMWF
ONLY HAS 0.02 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE MORNING AT ERY. THE 00Z/13 NAM
TAKES THE MIDDLE GROUND...WHICH MAKES IT PREFERABLE GIVEN A LACK OF
PREFERENCE FOR THE GFS VS THE ECMWF. ALL THREE OF THESE MODELS HAVE
THE CWA DRY FROM 18Z THROUGH THE REST OF TUE.
AN ADDITIONAL CONCERN...ESPECIALLY DURING THE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT TIME PERIOD IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR LARGE WAVES TO DEVELOP ON
THE TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE INVERTED TROUGH. THESE WAVES
WOULD DEVELOP ON GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS....ALLOWING
WAVES TO REACH AROUND 8 FEET. THIS COULD CAUSE MINOR BEACH EROSION
ALONG THE MARQUETTE AND ALGER COUNTY SHORELINES.
THE ECMWF AND NAM KEEP THE CWA DRY FOR THE MOST PART TUE NIGHT
THROUGH WED WHILE THE GFS BRINGS LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS BACK INTO THE FAR
SERN CWA THROUGH THAT PERIOD. THE REASON FOR THE DISCREPANCY IS THAT
THE GFS SHIFTS THE UPPER LOW FROM CENTRAL IL TO SRN MI WHILE THE
OTHER MODELS KEEP IT OVER IL. BECAUSE OF THIS...THE ECMWF/NAM KEEP
THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING N OF THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE CWA...WHICH
KEEPS THE AIRMASS MUCH DRIER AND FORCING FARTHER S. OPTED TO LOWER
POPS SOME DURING THE PERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR THE DRIER TREND IN
GUIDANCE. AS HEIGHTS RISE DUE TO THE UPPER RIDGE MOVING N OF THE LOW
AND THE LOW ITSELF FILLING...THE AIRMASS WARMS PRETTY CONSIDERABLY.
850MB TEMPS AT 12Z TUE LOOK TO RANGE FROM 4C W TO 8C E...BUT
INCREASE TO AROUND 11 C OVER THE ENTIRE AREA BY 00Z THU.
DETAILS ARE MUCH LESS CERTAIN AFTER WED...BUT OVERALL THE MODELS
SHOW THE UPPER LOW LIFTING QUICKLY N AND MERGING WITH AN INCOMING
TROUGH THAT DEEPENS INTO A CLOSED LOW /OR AT LEAST A DEEP TROUGH/ AS
IT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION FRI AND SAT. CANNOT GET TOO SPECIFIC AT
THIS POINT GIVEN LACK OF CONFIDENCE...BUT CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE
HIGHER WED NIGHT INTO SAT. A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THU NIGHT OR
FRI WILL BRING COOLER CONDITIONS FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS
HAVE THEN BEEN TRENDING DRIER FOR SUN...SO WILL REFLECT THAT IN THE
FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 121 AM EDT MON OCT 13 2014
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN...HOWEVER THEY
ARE VERY LIGHT AS THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN DRY. AN AREA OF MVFR OR EVEN
IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS IOWA AND SRN WI ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
UPPER MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING. MOST LIKELY...THE CIGS
WILL STAY MVFR AS OPPOSED TO IFR DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...AND
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
THIS LOW WILL MOVE TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES MON/MON NIGHT. DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...ALONG WITH RAIN. IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL MONDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...AND IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF SOME LIFR
CONDITIONS DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT MON OCT 13 2014
A WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA WILL LEAD TO WINDS
WILL DROPPING BELOW 10KT ACROSS THE LAKE BY THIS AFTERNOON. AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY LIFTS NE...WINDS WILL BECOME N TO NE TONIGHT
AND WILL INCREASE LATE. TUE AND TUE NIGHT...EXPECT N TO NE WINDS UP
TO 20KT ON WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND UP TO 25KT ON ERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
THE LOW WILL THEN WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS NE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WED/THU...ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH. WINDS SHOULD BE UNDER
10KT BY THU. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS SRN CANADA
THU WILL THEN MERGE WITH THE REMNANT GREAT LAKES LOW ON FRI IN THE
VICINITY OF JAMES BAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING W TO NW INTO
THE 15-25KT RANGE ON FRI.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...MRD
MARINE...TITUS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
358 AM EDT MON OCT 13 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 904 PM EDT SUN OCT 12 2014
SHOWERS AND/OR SPRINKLES HAVE MOVED INTO WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN IN
ADVANCE OF THE WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE ALOFT. WITH THE DWPTS STILL IN
THE LOWER 30S...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN A FEW
SPRINKLES/SHOWERS. HOWEVER...HAVE INTRODUCED ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. IN FACT...HAVE BROUGHT IN SCATTERED POPS
LATER TONIGHT AS THE HRRR INDICATES MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOPING
AS THE DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER MISSOURI MOVES OVERHEAD.
OTHERWISE...DUE TO THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND CONTINUED GUSTY
WINDS...HAVE RAISED LOW TEMPS SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EDT SUN OCT 12 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A DEEPENING TROF MOVING
OFF THE ROCKIES INTO THE WRN PLAINS. DOWNSTREAM OF THE TROF...
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW IS TRANSPORTING MOISTURE N UP THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS SHOWS UP NICELY ON VIS SATELLITE
IMAGERY AS A MASS OF CLOUDS QUICKLY SPREADING STEADILY N AT ABOUT
30KT WITH LEADING EDGE NOW INTO SE MN AND SW WI AS OF 19Z. CLOSER TO
HOME...IT`S BEEN A NICE MID OCT DAY THOUGH BREEZY IN SOME AREAS.
ADDED MOISTURE OFF LAKE MI LED TO SCT/BKN CLOUDS FOR A WHILE OVER
THE E. OTHERWISE...THERE`S BEEN ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. TEMPS HAVE RISEN
INTO THE MID 50S TO LWR 60S.
WITH A WEAK TEMP GRADIENT OVER THE WRN LAKES TONIGHT...ISENTROPIC
ASCENT IS LIMITED DESPITE CONTINUED SW FLOW. SOME WEAK DEEP LAYER
FORCING IS NOTED AS A COUPLE OF SUBTLE SHORTWAVES LIFT THRU THE WRN
GREAT LAKES. ALL IN ALL...THERE IS NOT A LOT OF SUPPORT FOR MUCH
PCPN EVEN THOUGH MOISTURE INCREASES SUBSTANTIALLY (PRECIPITABLE
WATER INCREASES FROM 50-60PCT OF NORMAL CURRENTLY TO 140-170PCT OF
NORMAL BY 12Z). UPSTREAM RADAR IMAGERY ONLY SHOWS ISOLD TO SCT
-SHRA/SPRINKLES ADVANCING NNE IN THE MOISTURE PLUME...SO A SPREAD OF
SCHC TO SPOTTY LOW CHC POPS N AND E INTO THE FCST AREA APPEARS
REASONABLE TONIGHT. INCREASING MOISTURE/CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM
FALLING SIGNIFICANTLY TONIGHT. 40S WILL BE THE RULE.
ON MON...SUBTLE SHORTWAVE LIFTING NE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY WILL
PROBABLY SUPPORT A CONTINUED THREAT OF ISOLD -SHRA/SPRINKLES IN THE
MORNING...THEN MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE REST OF THE DAY WILL PROBABLY
END UP DRY UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTN. DURING THE AFTN...STRENGTHENING
OF A JET STREAK FROM MN TO JAMES BAY WILL PLACE UPPER GREAT LAKES
UNDER THE INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE...AND DOWN
BELOW...IT WILL SERVE TO STRENGTHEN LOW/MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS/TIGHTENING OF THE THERMAL GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA.
ALL MODELS SHOW A HEALTHY RIBBON OF FRONTOGENESIS BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE UPPER LAKES LATE
IN THE DAY...BUT MUCH MORE SO MON NIGHT. AS A RESULT...A DEVELOPING
AREA OF MDT TO POSSIBLY HVY RAIN SHOULD BEGIN ORGANIZING/SPREADING
NNE THRU THE MID MISSISSIPPPI VALLEY MON AFTN. LEADING EDGE OF THIS
AREA OF DEVELOPING PCPN MAY BEGIN TO REACH THE WRN AND SRN FCST AREA
VERY LATE IN THE DAY...BUT GIVEN SLOWER MODEL TRENDS IN RECENT
DAYS...WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF PCPN HOLDS OFF UNTIL AFTER 00Z.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT MON OCT 13 2014
TUE WILL SEE DECREASING RAIN CHANCES AS AN FGEN BAND ALONG AN
INVERTED SFC TROUGH MOVES E OF THE CWA. MODELS VARY ON EXACTLY WHERE
THE BAND WILL BE AT IN THE MORNING AND HOW FAST IT WILL MOVE E...BUT
AT LEAST FAR NWRN UPPER MI /FROM IWD THROUGH THE KEWEENAW/ WILL BE
DRY ALL DAY PER THE FARTHER W 00Z/13 GFS SOLUTION. THE 12Z/12 ECMWF
ONLY HAS 0.02 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE MORNING AT ERY. THE 00Z/13 NAM
TAKES THE MIDDLE GROUND...WHICH MAKES IT PREFERABLE GIVEN A LACK OF
PREFERENCE FOR THE GFS VS THE ECMWF. ALL THREE OF THESE MODELS HAVE
THE CWA DRY FROM 18Z THROUGH THE REST OF TUE.
AN ADDITIONAL CONCERN...ESPECIALLY DURING THE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT TIME PERIOD IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR LARGE WAVES TO DEVELOP ON
THE TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE INVERTED TROUGH. THESE WAVES
WOULD DEVELOP ON GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS....ALLOWING
WAVES TO REACH AROUND 8 FEET. THIS COULD CAUSE MINOR BEACH EROSION
ALONG THE MARQUETTE AND ALGER COUNTY SHORELINES.
THE ECMWF AND NAM KEEP THE CWA DRY FOR THE MOST PART TUE NIGHT
THROUGH WED WHILE THE GFS BRINGS LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS BACK INTO THE FAR
SERN CWA THROUGH THAT PERIOD. THE REASON FOR THE DISCREPANCY IS THAT
THE GFS SHIFTS THE UPPER LOW FROM CENTRAL IL TO SRN MI WHILE THE
OTHER MODELS KEEP IT OVER IL. BECAUSE OF THIS...THE ECMWF/NAM KEEP
THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING N OF THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE CWA...WHICH
KEEPS THE AIRMASS MUCH DRIER AND FORCING FARTHER S. OPTED TO LOWER
POPS SOME DURING THE PERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR THE DRIER TREND IN
GUIDANCE. AS HEIGHTS RISE DUE TO THE UPPER RIDGE MOVING N OF THE LOW
AND THE LOW ITSELF FILLING...THE AIRMASS WARMS PRETTY CONSIDERABLY.
850MB TEMPS AT 12Z TUE LOOK TO RANGE FROM 4C W TO 8C E...BUT
INCREASE TO AROUND 11 C OVER THE ENTIRE AREA BY 00Z THU.
DETAILS ARE MUCH LESS CERTAIN AFTER WED...BUT OVERALL THE MODELS
SHOW THE UPPER LOW LIFTING QUICKLY N AND MERGING WITH AN INCOMING
TROUGH THAT DEEPENS INTO A CLOSED LOW /OR AT LEAST A DEEP TROUGH/ AS
IT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION FRI AND SAT. CANNOT GET TOO SPECIFIC AT
THIS POINT GIVEN LACK OF CONFIDENCE...BUT CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE
HIGHER WED NIGHT INTO SAT. A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THU NIGHT OR
FRI WILL BRING COOLER CONDITIONS FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS
HAVE THEN BEEN TRENDING DRIER FOR SUN...SO WILL REFLECT THAT IN THE
FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 121 AM EDT MON OCT 13 2014
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN...HOWEVER THEY
ARE VERY LIGHT AS THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN DRY. AN AREA OF MVFR OR EVEN
IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS IOWA AND SRN WI ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
UPPER MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING. MOST LIKELY...THE CIGS
WILL STAY MVFR AS OPPOSED TO IFR DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...AND
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
THIS LOW WILL MOVE TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES MON/MON NIGHT. DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...ALONG WITH RAIN. IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL MONDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...AND IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF SOME LIFR
CONDITIONS DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT MON OCT 13 2014
A WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA WILL LEAD TO WINDS
WILL DROPPING BELOW 10KT ACROSS THE LAKE BY THIS AFTERNOON. AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY LIFTS NE...WINDS WILL BECOME N TO NE TONIGHT
AND WILL INCREASE LATE. TUE AND TUE NIGHT...EXPECT N TO NE WINDS UP
TO 20KT ON WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND UP TO 25KT ON ERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
THE LOW WILL THEN WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS NE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WED/THU...ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH. WINDS SHOULD BE UNDER
10KT BY THU. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS SRN CANADA
THU WILL THEN MERGE WITH THE REMNANT GREAT LAKES LOW ON FRI IN THE
VICINITY OF JAMES BAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING W TO NW INTO
THE 15-25KT RANGE ON FRI.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MRD
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...MRD
MARINE...TITUS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
122 AM EDT MON OCT 13 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 904 PM EDT SUN OCT 12 2014
SHOWERS AND/OR SPRINKLES HAVE MOVED INTO WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN IN
ADVANCE OF THE WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE ALOFT. WITH THE DWPTS STILL IN
THE LOWER 30S...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN A FEW
SPRINKLES/SHOWERS. HOWEVER...HAVE INTRODUCED ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. IN FACT...HAVE BROUGHT IN SCATTERED POPS
LATER TONIGHT AS THE HRRR INDICATES MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOPING
AS THE DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER MISSOURI MOVES OVERHEAD.
OTHERWISE...DUE TO THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND CONTINUED GUSTY
WINDS...HAVE RAISED LOW TEMPS SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EDT SUN OCT 12 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A DEEPENING TROF MOVING
OFF THE ROCKIES INTO THE WRN PLAINS. DOWNSTREAM OF THE TROF...
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW IS TRANSPORTING MOISTURE N UP THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS SHOWS UP NICELY ON VIS SATELLITE
IMAGERY AS A MASS OF CLOUDS QUICKLY SPREADING STEADILY N AT ABOUT
30KT WITH LEADING EDGE NOW INTO SE MN AND SW WI AS OF 19Z. CLOSER TO
HOME...IT`S BEEN A NICE MID OCT DAY THOUGH BREEZY IN SOME AREAS.
ADDED MOISTURE OFF LAKE MI LED TO SCT/BKN CLOUDS FOR A WHILE OVER
THE E. OTHERWISE...THERE`S BEEN ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. TEMPS HAVE RISEN
INTO THE MID 50S TO LWR 60S.
WITH A WEAK TEMP GRADIENT OVER THE WRN LAKES TONIGHT...ISENTROPIC
ASCENT IS LIMITED DESPITE CONTINUED SW FLOW. SOME WEAK DEEP LAYER
FORCING IS NOTED AS A COUPLE OF SUBTLE SHORTWAVES LIFT THRU THE WRN
GREAT LAKES. ALL IN ALL...THERE IS NOT A LOT OF SUPPORT FOR MUCH
PCPN EVEN THOUGH MOISTURE INCREASES SUBSTANTIALLY (PRECIPITABLE
WATER INCREASES FROM 50-60PCT OF NORMAL CURRENTLY TO 140-170PCT OF
NORMAL BY 12Z). UPSTREAM RADAR IMAGERY ONLY SHOWS ISOLD TO SCT
-SHRA/SPRINKLES ADVANCING NNE IN THE MOISTURE PLUME...SO A SPREAD OF
SCHC TO SPOTTY LOW CHC POPS N AND E INTO THE FCST AREA APPEARS
REASONABLE TONIGHT. INCREASING MOISTURE/CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM
FALLING SIGNIFICANTLY TONIGHT. 40S WILL BE THE RULE.
ON MON...SUBTLE SHORTWAVE LIFTING NE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY WILL
PROBABLY SUPPORT A CONTINUED THREAT OF ISOLD -SHRA/SPRINKLES IN THE
MORNING...THEN MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE REST OF THE DAY WILL PROBABLY
END UP DRY UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTN. DURING THE AFTN...STRENGTHENING
OF A JET STREAK FROM MN TO JAMES BAY WILL PLACE UPPER GREAT LAKES
UNDER THE INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE...AND DOWN
BELOW...IT WILL SERVE TO STRENGTHEN LOW/MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS/TIGHTENING OF THE THERMAL GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA.
ALL MODELS SHOW A HEALTHY RIBBON OF FRONTOGENESIS BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE UPPER LAKES LATE
IN THE DAY...BUT MUCH MORE SO MON NIGHT. AS A RESULT...A DEVELOPING
AREA OF MDT TO POSSIBLY HVY RAIN SHOULD BEGIN ORGANIZING/SPREADING
NNE THRU THE MID MISSISSIPPPI VALLEY MON AFTN. LEADING EDGE OF THIS
AREA OF DEVELOPING PCPN MAY BEGIN TO REACH THE WRN AND SRN FCST AREA
VERY LATE IN THE DAY...BUT GIVEN SLOWER MODEL TRENDS IN RECENT
DAYS...WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF PCPN HOLDS OFF UNTIL AFTER 00Z.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EDT SUN OCT 12 2014
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST
WITH WET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THE
HEAVIEST RAIN IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE MISSOURI
VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CLOSES OFF
JUST TO THE WEST OF THE SURFACE LOW MONDAY NIGHT. FAIRLY STRONG
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL SET UP EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE LOW AS
PLENTY OF MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE. THIS WILL ALLOW RAIN TO SPREAD
INTO MUCH OF THE AREA MONDAY EVENING AND LINGER THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH THE BETTER FOCUS BEING OVER THE CENTRAL AND
EAST WHERE THE STRONGER UPGLIDE OCCURS. AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTHWARD
AND BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED OVERNIGHT...A DECENT FGEN BAND IS
PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.P. THIS
WILL FOCUS STRONG QCONV OVER THESE AREAS ALONG WITH THE DEEP LAYER
1000 TO 500MB RH TO LEND SUPPORT TO A STEADY...MODERATE TO
OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA. PWAT VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 1 TO 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA...AGAIN
LENDING SUPPORT TO A DECENT RAINFALL. AS THE LOW WORKS SLOWLY EAST
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH WEDNESDAY EXPECT THE LOW
TO WEAKEN. THE INVERTED TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL LINGER
OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.P. THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME ALONG WITH
WEAK QCONV ALLOWING RAIN SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TIME
PERIOD. DRY AIR WILL BEGIN WORKING INTO THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE
U.P. TUESDAY MORNING ALLOWING SHOWERS TO TAPER OFF A BIT EARLIER
OVER THOSE AREAS.
AN ADDITIONAL CONCERN...ESPECIALLY DURING THE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT TIME PERIOD IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR LARGE WAVES TO DEVELOP ON
THE TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE INVERTED TROUGH. THESE WAVES
WOULD DEVELOP ON GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS....ALLOWING
WAVES TO REACH AROUND 8 FEET. THIS COULD CAUSE MINOR BEACH EROSION
ALONG THE MARQUETTE AND ALGER COUNTY SHORELINES.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...MODEL TRENDS BEGIN TO DIVERGE
ON THE OVERALL TIMING AND POSITION OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
SURFACE LOW SHIFTING TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER PENINSULA.
CURRENTLY...IT APPEARS AS IF MOST OF THE U.P. WILL ONLY SEE LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD AS OVERALL FORCING IS FAIRLY
WEAK AND MOISTURE IS NOT AS ABUNDANT.
FRIDAY THROUGH THE REMAINING EXTENDED...BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S. ALLOWING FOR
INTERMITTENT RAIN SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. PINNING DOWN
SPECIFICS WILL BE A BIT TOUGH AT THIS POINT AS INCREASED RAINFALL
POTENTIAL WILL BE CLOSELY RELATED TO TIMING OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL 500MB TROUGH. AGAIN MODELS VARY SIGNIFICANTLY
ON THE FINER DETAILS AT THIS POINT THEREFORE...WILL STICK CLOSELY TO
MODEL CONSENSUS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. ON SUNDAY...MODELS ARE
TRENDING TOWARD A RIDGE BUILDING IN TO THE AREA...WHICH WOULD BEGIN
TO LEND MORE SUPPORT TO A BIT WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 121 AM EDT MON OCT 13 2014
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN...HOWEVER THEY
ARE VERY LIGHT AS THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN DRY. AN AREA OF MVFR OR EVEN
IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS IOWA AND SRN WI ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
UPPER MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING. MOST LIKELY...THE CIGS
WILL STAY MVFR AS OPPOSED TO IFR DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...AND
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
THIS LOW WILL MOVE TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES MON/MON NIGHT. DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...ALONG WITH RAIN. IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL MONDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...AND IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF SOME LIFR
CONDITIONS DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EDT SUN OCT 12 2014
SOUTHERLY WINDS AS HIGH AS 15-25KT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
OVER ROUGHLY THE E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. PRES GRADIENT THEN WEAKENS
OVERNIGHT/MON AS A LOW PRES TROF MOVES E INTO THE UPPER LAKES WHILE
LOW PRES ORGANIZES ALONG THE TROF OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS
WILL RESULT IN WINDS DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT AND MON. WINDS WILL BE
UNDER 10KT ACROSS THE LAKE BY MON AFTN. AS THE LOW SLOWLY LIFTS
NE...WINDS WILL BECOME N TO NE MON NIGHT AND WILL INCREASE LATE. TUE
AND TUE NIGHT...EXPECT N TO NE WINDS UP TO 20KT ON WRN LAKE SUPERIOR
AND UP TO 25KT ON ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THE LOW WILL THEN WEAKEN AS IT
DRIFTS NE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WED/THU...ALLOWING WINDS TO
DIMINISH. WINDS SHOULD BE UNDER 10KT BY THU. ANOTHER LOW PRES SYSTEM
TRACKING ACROSS SRN CANADA THU WILL THEN MERGE WITH THE REMNANT
GREAT LAKES LOW ON FRI IN THE VCNTY OF JAMES BAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING W TO NW INTO THE 15-25KT RANGE ON FRI.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MRD
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...MRD
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ST LOUIS MO
102 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2014
.UPDATE:
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2014
Expanded tornado watch to include Greene, Jersey, Macoupin and
Montgomery in Illinois. Updated grids/zones accordingly. Minor
adjustments made to pops and temps.
Byrd
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 355 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2014
Warm front extending from near Joplin to Jefferson City and through
the St. Louis Metro area northeast to near Decatur will continue to
lift slowly north today as a strong trof and associated wound up
surface low moves northeast through Missouri. Strong low level warm
advection ahead of the system will produce scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms this morning. All short-range guidance is
very consistent in developing a wave of convection this morning
with a break before another round this afternoon. With some dry
time and a bit of insolation, MUCAPE in excess of 1000 J/Kg should
result. Very strong wind fields and plenty of shear will likely
produce severe thunderstorms this afternoon...primarily along and
east-southeast of the I-44 corridor. 4km NSSL and NCEP WRF models
along with the HRRR develop a strong squall line which moves rapidly
east this afternoon. SPC day 1 outlook has about the southeast 1/2
to 2/3 of the area in a slight risk with the moderate clipping
Reynolds, Iron and Madison counties. Primary concern will be
damaging winds given the very strong wind fields, and there could be
a few tornadoes as 0-1km helicity is forecast to be in excess of 200
m2/s2. Lack of steep lapserates aloft precludes a high hail risk.
Carney
.LONG TERM: (Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 355 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2014
A strong storm system is still set to deepen and slowly move through
our region over the next few days. It will initially close off this
evening over far southwestern MO and then not begin to pull away
from our region to the east until Wednesday, but its influences will
still be felt thru Wednesday night and perhaps into Thursday.
The main severe thunderstorm threat from this system will be on its
front-end, and is expected to be ongoing early this evening from the
lower MS Valley into southern IL. The convective mode by this time
is expected to be a squall line with damaging winds and isolated
imbedded tornadoes. All indications, though, is that the severe
thunderstorm threat should end by 9pm across our region as it pushes
east.
Heading into late tonight and through Wednesday, the primary focus
at this point will be the deformation zone pcpn, which will be best
focused down our way using the expected location of the TROWAL and
decently strong lo-level convergence. With a system this wrapped up
expected, went above MAV MOS PoPs, tapering back to MOS by Wednesday
night. Added in some small mentionable PoPs for Thursday in parts
of southern IL with the trends all heading in that direction, with
stronger indications of more persistent, deep cyclonic flow.
MOS temps thru Wednesday look reasonable, but adjusted daytime maxes
a bit lower where we expect the most peristent, and high, rain
chances to be.
Northwest upper flow is still on track for late week and next
weekend, with a couple of glancing blows from upper level
disturbances on Friday and Sunday, but moisture looks severely
limited enough to hold off on chance mention for now. Temps should
be near seasonal normals.
TES
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 102 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2014
Surface low now near KSZL and continues to track to the north
northeast today. So taf sites to remain on warm side with
southeast to south winds. With dry slot moving in, should see cigs
lift a bit waffling between mvfr and vfr through the afternoon and
early evening hours. Then as main cold front begins to move east
will see ifr cigs return to KUIN and KCOU tonight with some light
rain. As for metro area tafs, could see additional storms fire up
this afternoon, but hard to pin down timing and location, so
just have showers with vcnty thunder possible through 23z and
gusty southeast to south winds. Then winds to diminish towards sunset.
Winds to veer to northwest to north at KCOU by 10z Tuesday and by
11z Tuesday at KUIN. As for metro area it will be just after 18z
Tuesday when front moves through.
Specifics for KSTL:
Surface low now near KSZL and continues to track to the north
northeast today. So taf sites to remain on warm side with
southeast to south winds. With dry slot moving in, should see cigs
lift a bit waffling between mvfr and vfr through the afternoon and
early evening hours. For metro area, could see additional storms
fire up this afternoon, but hard to pin down timing and location,
so just have showers with vcnty thunder possible through 23z and
gusty southeast to south winds. Then winds to diminish towards
sunset. Later tonight will see ifr/mvfr cigs moving in, timing and
coverage hard to pin down. Better chances of ifr cigs with cold
frontal passage around 19z Tuesday as winds veer to the west and
some light rain moves in.
Byrd
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
702 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2014
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 355 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2014
Warm front extending from near Joplin to Jefferson City and through
the St. Louis Metro area northeast to near Decatur will continue to
lift slowly north today as a strong trof and associated wound up
surface low moves northeast through Missouri. Strong low level warm
advection ahead of the system will produce scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms this morning. All short-range guidance is
very consistent in developing a wave of convection this morning
with a break before another round this afternoon. With some dry
time and a bit of insolation, MUCAPE in excess of 1000 J/Kg should
result. Very strong wind fields and plenty of shear will likely
produce severe thunderstorms this afternoon...primarily along and
east-southeast of the I-44 corridor. 4km NSSL and NCEP WRF models
along with the HRRR develop a strong squall line which moves rapidly
east this afternoon. SPC day 1 outlook has about the southeast 1/2
to 2/3 of the area in a slight risk with the moderate clipping
Reynolds, Iron and Madison counties. Primary concern will be
damaging winds given the very strong wind fields, and there could be
a few tornadoes as 0-1km helicity is forecast to be in excess of 200
m2/s2. Lack of steep lapserates aloft precludes a high hail risk.
Carney
.LONG TERM: (Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 355 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2014
A strong storm system is still set to deepen and slowly move through
our region over the next few days. It will initially close off this
evening over far southwestern MO and then not begin to pull away
from our region to the east until Wednesday, but its influences will
still be felt thru Wednesday night and perhaps into Thursday.
The main severe thunderstorm threat from this system will be on its
front-end, and is expected to be ongoing early this evening from the
lower MS Valley into southern IL. The convective mode by this time
is expected to be a squall line with damaging winds and isolated
imbedded tornadoes. All indications, though, is that the severe
thunderstorm threat should end by 9pm across our region as it pushes
east.
Heading into late tonight and through Wednesday, the primary focus
at this point will be the deformation zone pcpn, which will be best
focused down our way using the expected location of the TROWAL and
decently strong lo-level convergence. With a system this wrapped up
expected, went above MAV MOS PoPs, tapering back to MOS by Wednesday
night. Added in some small mentionable PoPs for Thursday in parts
of southern IL with the trends all heading in that direction, with
stronger indications of more persistent, deep cyclonic flow.
MOS temps thru Wednesday look reasonable, but adjusted daytime maxes
a bit lower where we expect the most peristent, and high, rain
chances to be.
Northwest upper flow is still on track for late week and next
weekend, with a couple of glancing blows from upper level
disturbances on Friday and Sunday, but moisture looks severely
limited enough to hold off on chance mention for now. Temps should
be near seasonal normals.
TES
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 634 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2014
Difficult aviation forecast today. A warm front will lift slowly from
around the I-70 corridor northward today. Numerous and widespread
thunderstorms will affect the region, culminating in a strong squall
line this afternoon which will affect areas along and south of
I-70. This squall line will produce wind gusts in excess of 60 kts
as it passes. Generally speaking, the eastern Ozarks should stay
MVFR today outside of thunderstorms. IFR ceilings/visibilities
will lift slowly this morning from I-70 north as the warm front
moves, but think ceilings will stay below 2,000 FT, especially as
thunderstorms roll through. Am very unsure of what
ceilings/visibilities will do after sunset tonight as the low
pressure currently over Oklahoma moves into central Missouri.
However, think ceilings should stay below 2,000 FT and
visibilities could drop down to IFR again in fog and/or light rain
or drizzle.
Specifics for KSTL:
Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms with IFR ceilings will
prevail this morning until the warm front which is just south of
the terminal moves north. This may happen as early as 14Z or may
be as late as 16-18Z depending on which model you believe.
However, wind should eventually swing around to the south-
southwest and ceilings should improve slightly, though am not
optimistic about any ceilings higher than 1,900 FT today. A strong
squall line capable of producing winds in excess of 60 kts will
move through the area this afternoon...I suspect the truly severe part
of the line will stay south of Lambert, but I cannot rule out a
direct impact on the terminal. Am very unsure of what
ceilings/visibilities will do after sunset tonight as the low
pressure currently over Oklahoma moves into central Missouri.
However, think ceilings should stay below 2,000 FT and
visibilities could drop down to IFR again in fog and/or light rain
or drizzle.
Carney
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
355 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2014
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 355 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2014
Warm front extending from near Joplin to Jefferson City and through
the St. Louis Metro area northeast to near Decatur will continue to
lift slowly north today as a strong trof and associated wound up
surface low moves northeast through Missouri. Strong low level warm
advection ahead of the system will produce scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms this morning. All short-range guidance is
very consistent in developing a wave of convection this morning
with a break before another round this afternoon. With some dry
time and a bit of insolation, MUCAPE in excess of 1000 J/Kg should
result. Very strong wind fields and plenty of shear will likely
produce severe thunderstorms this afternoon...primarily along and
east-southeast of the I-44 corridor. 4km NSSL and NCEP WRF models
along with the HRRR develop a strong squall line which moves rapidly
east this afternoon. SPC day 1 outlook has about the southeast 1/2
to 2/3 of the area in a slight risk with the moderate clipping
Reynolds, Iron and Madison counties. Primary concern will be
damaging winds given the very strong wind fields, and there could be
a few tornadoes as 0-1km helicity is forecast to be in excess of 200
m2/s2. Lack of steep lapserates aloft precludes a high hail risk.
Carney
.LONG TERM: (Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 355 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2014
A strong storm system is still set to deepen and slowly move through
our region over the next few days. It will initially close off this
evening over far southwestern MO and then not begin to pull away
from our region to the east until Wednesday, but its influences will
still be felt thru Wednesday night and perhaps into Thursday.
The main severe thunderstorm threat from this system will be on its
front-end, and is expected to be ongoing early this evening from the
lower MS Valley into southern IL. The convective mode by this time
is expected to be a squall line with damaging winds and isolated
imbedded tornadoes. All indications, though, is that the severe
thunderstorm threat should end by 9pm across our region as it pushes
east.
Heading into late tonight and through Wednesday, the primary focus
at this point will be the deformation zone pcpn, which will be best
focused down our way using the expected location of the TROWAL and
decently strong lo-level convergence. With a system this wrapped up
expected, went above MAV MOS PoPs, tapering back to MOS by Wednesday
night. Added in some small mentionable PoPs for Thursday in parts
of southern IL with the trends all heading in that direction, with
stronger indications of more persistent, deep cyclonic flow.
MOS temps thru Wednesday look reasonable, but adjusted daytime maxes
a bit lower where we expect the most peristent, and high, rain
chances to be.
Northwest upper flow is still on track for late week and next
weekend, with a couple of glancing blows from upper level
disturbances on Friday and Sunday, but moisture looks severely
limited enough to hold off on chance mention for now. Temps should
be near seasonal normals.
TES
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Monday Night)
Issued at 1126 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2014
Expect TSRA to develop S of terminals over the next few hours and
gradually move nwd thru the morning hours. Believe there will be a
brief period of dry time before another round of TSRA impact the
terminals. UIN may see more stratiform precip rather than a line
of TSRA, but some uncertainty remains. Cigs/vsbys shud improve as
the wrmfnt lifts nwd, before lowering again with TSRA. Expect dry
slot behind the line of TSRA before RA move in with the sfc low.
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1259 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT MON OCT 13 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE ENDING PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING AND
WINDS FOR TODAY.
LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW SHOWERS IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA THAT ARE MOVING SOUTH AND ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS TO THE
SOUTHEAST THAT IS MOVING TO THE NORTH. SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A COLD
FRONT JUST ABOUT TO EXIT THE FAR SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
ALREADY THIS MORNING.
SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS FOR THE CURRENT
PRECIPITATION. THE HRRR AND RAP TRY TO BRING THE SHOWERS TO THE
SOUTHEAST NORTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA...BUT THE TREND ON THESE HAVE
BEEN TO WEAKEN A LITTLE AS THEY MOVE TO THE NORTH. ON THE OTHER HAND
THE 4KM WRF KEEPS IT MOSTLY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. THE
PRECIPITATION TO THE WEST IS NOT HANDLED WELL WITH THE MODELS. WITH
THAT IN MIND...HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...BUT LOWERED THE
CHANCES. HAVE KEPT THUNDER OUT SINCE THE MUCAPE IS NON-EXISTENT AND
THERE HAS ONLY BEEN A RARE LIGHTNING STRIKE IN THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS.
NORTH OR NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE ALREADY STARTED INCREASING THIS
MORNING. MOST LOCATIONS HAVE WINDS AT 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 25 MPH ALREADY. EXPECT THE TREND TO INCREASE AND AS THE SUN
RISES THIS MORNING AND THE INVERSION BREAKS STRONGER WINDS WILL MIX
DOWN. WINDS AT 850MB ARE STRONGEST AT 12Z THIS MORNING...BUT REMAIN
AROUND 40 KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP THE WIND ADVISORY
THROUGH THE DAY.
AS THE SUN SETS THIS EVENING...WINDS WILL DROP OFF BUT STILL REMAIN
BREEZY FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS. LATER TONIGHT A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL START TO BUILD INTO THE AREA AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT MON OCT 13 2014
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL START WITH AN
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CONUS...AND A RIDGE OVER THE WEST. THE RIDGE OVER THE WEST IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS ON WEDNESDAY...BEFORE
WEAKENING THUS ALLOWING FOR QUASI-ZONAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER
OUR AREA ON THURSDAY. A STRENGTHENING UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION IS THEN EXPECTED TO TURN OUR FLOW MORE
NORTHWESTERLY FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
AN OVERALL LACK IN OMEGA SHOULD PROMOTE DRY CONDITIONS TO OUR AREA AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER THE
REGION. SUCH HAS BEEN PRESENTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. ONE COULD
ARGUE THAT THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK UPPER TROPOSPHERIC PERTURBATION...OR
PERHAPS ENHANCED JET DYNAMICS...COULD BRING CHANCES FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION THURSDAY ONWARD...BUT AT THIS TIME
TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE APPEARS AS THOUGH IT WILL BE EXTREMELY LACKING
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AND AS A RESULT...ALSO WENT AHEAD WITH DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SOUTHERLY BOUNDARY-LAYER RETURN FLOW IS EXPECTED TO OVERTAKE THE
REGION STARTING ON WEDNESDAY AND AS A RESULT...THERMAL ADVECTION
THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD PROMOTE A GENERAL WARMING TREND
FROM DAY TO DAY BETWEEN TUESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS CLIMBING
FROM THE 60S ON TUESDAY TO THE LOW TO MID 70S BY THURSDAY. THE
PASSAGE OF A WEAK BOUNDARY-LAYER BAROCLINIC ZONE IS THEN EXPECTED TO
BRING A SLIGHT COOL DOWN TO FINISH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH HIGHS
BACK IN THE 60S FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT
/ WEDNESDAY MORNING LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S WILL ALSO BE SHORT
LIVED AS BOUNDARY-LAYER THERMAL ADVECTION OVERTAKES THE AREA...WITH
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH VERY STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY. EXPECT THE RESPONSIBLE STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY TO SHIFT
EAST NORTHEAST AND FURTHER AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA THIS
EVENING...WITH A RELAXING PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT AS THE WINDS AT THE SURFACE DECOUPLE SOMEWHAT
FROM THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. AS A RESULT...COULD SEE SOME
MARGINAL LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH SURFACE WINDS
IN THE 12-15KT RANGE...THINK WIND SHEAR WILL BE BELOW THE 30KT
CRITERIA. LIGHTER NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ039>041-046>049-
060>064-072>077-082>087.
KS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ005>007-017>019.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...ROSSI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
551 AM CDT MON OCT 13 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT MON OCT 13 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE ENDING PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING AND
WINDS FOR TODAY.
LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW SHOWERS IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA THAT ARE MOVING SOUTH AND ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS TO THE
SOUTHEAST THAT IS MOVING TO THE NORTH. SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A COLD
FRONT JUST ABOUT TO EXIT THE FAR SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
ALREADY THIS MORNING.
SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS FOR THE CURRENT
PRECIPITATION. THE HRRR AND RAP TRY TO BRING THE SHOWERS TO THE
SOUTHEAST NORTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA...BUT THE TREND ON THESE HAVE
BEEN TO WEAKEN A LITTLE AS THEY MOVE TO THE NORTH. ON THE OTHER HAND
THE 4KM WRF KEEPS IT MOSTLY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. THE
PRECIPITATION TO THE WEST IS NOT HANDLED WELL WITH THE MODELS. WITH
THAT IN MIND...HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...BUT LOWERED THE
CHANCES. HAVE KEPT THUNDER OUT SINCE THE MUCAPE IS NON-EXISTENT AND
THERE HAS ONLY BEEN A RARE LIGHTNING STRIKE IN THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS.
NORTH OR NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE ALREADY STARTED INCREASING THIS
MORNING. MOST LOCATIONS HAVE WINDS AT 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 25 MPH ALREADY. EXPECT THE TREND TO INCREASE AND AS THE SUN
RISES THIS MORNING AND THE INVERSION BREAKS STRONGER WINDS WILL MIX
DOWN. WINDS AT 850MB ARE STRONGEST AT 12Z THIS MORNING...BUT REMAIN
AROUND 40 KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP THE WIND ADVISORY
THROUGH THE DAY.
AS THE SUN SETS THIS EVENING...WINDS WILL DROP OFF BUT STILL REMAIN
BREEZY FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS. LATER TONIGHT A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL START TO BUILD INTO THE AREA AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT MON OCT 13 2014
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL START WITH AN
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CONUS...AND A RIDGE OVER THE WEST. THE RIDGE OVER THE WEST IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS ON WEDNESDAY...BEFORE
WEAKENING THUS ALLOWING FOR QUASI-ZONAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER
OUR AREA ON THURSDAY. A STRENGTHENING UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION IS THEN EXPECTED TO TURN OUR FLOW MORE
NORTHWESTERLY FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
AN OVERALL LACK IN OMEGA SHOULD PROMOTE DRY CONDITIONS TO OUR AREA AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER THE
REGION. SUCH HAS BEEN PRESENTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. ONE COULD
ARGUE THAT THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK UPPER TROPOSPHERIC PERTURBATION...OR
PERHAPS ENHANCED JET DYNAMICS...COULD BRING CHANCES FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION THURSDAY ONWARD...BUT AT THIS TIME
TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE APPEARS AS THOUGH IT WILL BE EXTREMELY LACKING
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AND AS A RESULT...ALSO WENT AHEAD WITH DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SOUTHERLY BOUNDARY-LAYER RETURN FLOW IS EXPECTED TO OVERTAKE THE
REGION STARTING ON WEDNESDAY AND AS A RESULT...THERMAL ADVECTION
THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD PROMOTE A GENERAL WARMING TREND
FROM DAY TO DAY BETWEEN TUESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS CLIMBING
FROM THE 60S ON TUESDAY TO THE LOW TO MID 70S BY THURSDAY. THE
PASSAGE OF A WEAK BOUNDARY-LAYER BAROCLINIC ZONE IS THEN EXPECTED TO
BRING A SLIGHT COOL DOWN TO FINISH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH HIGHS
BACK IN THE 60S FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT
/ WEDNESDAY MORNING LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S WILL ALSO BE SHORT
LIVED AS BOUNDARY-LAYER THERMAL ADVECTION OVERTAKES THE AREA...WITH
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 549 AM CDT MON OCT 13 2014
WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE AS
THE SUN COMES UP THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY...DECREASING AS THE SUN GOES DOWN THIS EVENING. CLOUDS WILL BE
ON THE DECREASE AS WELL.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ039>041-046>049-
060>064-072>077-082>087.
KS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ005>007-017>019.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...JCB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
317 AM CDT MON OCT 13 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT MON OCT 13 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE ENDING PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING AND
WINDS FOR TODAY.
LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW SHOWERS IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA THAT ARE MOVING SOUTH AND ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS TO THE
SOUTHEAST THAT IS MOVING TO THE NORTH. SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A COLD
FRONT JUST ABOUT TO EXIT THE FAR SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
ALREADY THIS MORNING.
SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS FOR THE CURRENT
PRECIPITATION. THE HRRR AND RAP TRY TO BRING THE SHOWERS TO THE
SOUTHEAST NORTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA...BUT THE TREND ON THESE HAVE
BEEN TO WEAKEN A LITTLE AS THEY MOVE TO THE NORTH. ON THE OTHER HAND
THE 4KM WRF KEEPS IT MOSTLY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. THE
PRECIPITATION TO THE WEST IS NOT HANDLED WELL WITH THE MODELS. WITH
THAT IN MIND...HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...BUT LOWERED THE
CHANCES. HAVE KEPT THUNDER OUT SINCE THE MUCAPE IS NON-EXISTENT AND
THERE HAS ONLY BEEN A RARE LIGHTNING STRIKE IN THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS.
NORTH OR NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE ALREADY STARTED INCREASING THIS
MORNING. MOST LOCATIONS HAVE WINDS AT 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 25 MPH ALREADY. EXPECT THE TREND TO INCREASE AND AS THE SUN
RISES THIS MORNING AND THE INVERSION BREAKS STRONGER WINDS WILL MIX
DOWN. WINDS AT 850MB ARE STRONGEST AT 12Z THIS MORNING...BUT REMAIN
AROUND 40 KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP THE WIND ADVISORY
THROUGH THE DAY.
AS THE SUN SETS THIS EVENING...WINDS WILL DROP OFF BUT STILL REMAIN
BREEZY FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS. LATER TONIGHT A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL START TO BUILD INTO THE AREA AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT MON OCT 13 2014
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL START WITH AN
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CONUS...AND A RIDGE OVER THE WEST. THE RIDGE OVER THE WEST IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS ON WEDNESDAY...BEFORE
WEAKENING THUS ALLOWING FOR QUASI-ZONAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER
OUR AREA ON THURSDAY. A STRENGTHENING UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION IS THEN EXPECTED TO TURN OUR FLOW MORE
NORTHWESTERLY FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
AN OVERALL LACK IN OMEGA SHOULD PROMOTE DRY CONDITIONS TO OUR AREA AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER THE
REGION. SUCH HAS BEEN PRESENTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. ONE COULD
ARGUE THAT THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK UPPER TROPOSPHERIC PERTURBATION...OR
PERHAPS ENHANCED JET DYNAMICS...COULD BRING CHANCES FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION THURSDAY ONWARD...BUT AT THIS TIME
TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE APPEARS AS THOUGH IT WILL BE EXTREMELY LACKING
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AND AS A RESULT...ALSO WENT AHEAD WITH DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SOUTHERLY BOUNDARY-LAYER RETURN FLOW IS EXPECTED TO OVERTAKE THE
REGION STARTING ON WEDNESDAY AND AS A RESULT...THERMAL ADVECTION
THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD PROMOTE A GENERAL WARMING TREND
FROM DAY TO DAY BETWEEN TUESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS CLIMBING
FROM THE 60S ON TUESDAY TO THE LOW TO MID 70S BY THURSDAY. THE
PASSAGE OF A WEAK BOUNDARY-LAYER BAROCLINIC ZONE IS THEN EXPECTED TO
BRING A SLIGHT COOL DOWN TO FINISH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH HIGHS
BACK IN THE 60S FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT
/ WEDNESDAY MORNING LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S WILL ALSO BE SHORT
LIVED AS BOUNDARY-LAYER THERMAL ADVECTION OVERTAKES THE AREA...WITH
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1214 AM CDT MON OCT 13 2014
THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING
AND WINDS HAVE TURNED TO THE NORTHWEST AND STARTED TO INCREASE. IN
ADDITION...MVFR CEILINGS HAVE SETTLED INTO THE AREA. THE CEILINGS
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH DAY BREAK THEN GRADUALLY LIFT BEFORE
CLEARING. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRONG DURING THE DAY
THEN DIMINISH SOME THIS EVENING.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.
KS...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR KSZ005>007-017>019.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...JCB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1219 AM CDT MON OCT 13 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 725 PM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014
UPDATED THE FORECAST THIS EVENING TO LOWER CHANCES OF PRECIP IN
SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR NEBRASKA COUNTIES AS MUCH OF THE RAIN
HAS CLEARED OFF TO THE EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MAIN ISSUES ARE PRECIPITATION ONGOING...
AND STRONG WINDS MONDAY.
THE AS ADVERTISED STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE ON TRACK
FOR RAPID STRENGTHENING AND CYCLOGENISIS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
THE NEXT 18-24 HOURS. INITIAL COLD FRONTAL SURGE IS CURRENTLY ACROSS
WESTERN NEBRASKA...APPROACHING THEDFORD AND NORTH PLATTE. THIS SEEMS
A BIT QUICKER GIVEN THE TENDENCY THE LAST DAY OR SO FOR THE MODELS
TO BE A BIT SLOWER OVERALL WITH DEVELOPING FEATURES. INITIAL ROUND
OF DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION AND MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION HAS
SPARKED A SLOW TO MOVE AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WHICH BEGAN FIRST THING THIS MORNING. COUPLE AUTOMATED WEATHER
STATIONS DID REPORT ABOUT ONE-QUARTER INCH OF RAIN IN PHILLIPS COUNTY
KANSAS...AND THIS HAS BEEN A STEADY EVENT ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVELS
ARE VERY DRY WITH NEAR 40 DEWPOINTS OVER THE NORTHEAST FORECAST
AREA. RELYING ON THE HRRR AND ITS HANDLING...THIS PRECIPITATION
GRADUALLY MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...AND LOSES SOME STEAM AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE DRY AIR. THAT
IS TREND FOLLOWED IN THE FORECAST...ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED STORM
OR TWO.
MAIN PRECIPITATION CHANCE COMES LATER TONIGHT. AS THE COLD FRONT
FIRES UP THE DEEPENING LOW WITH INCREASING BAROCLINICITY...A CLASSIC
DEFORMATION AXIS SETS UP ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE MAIN UPPER
LEVEL LOW. SOME 12Z MODELS /WRF-NAM/ NOW HOLD THAT AXIS FURTHER
NORTHWEST AND IMPLY A STEADY RAIN IS POSSIBLE EVEN IN THE HASTINGS
AREA. OTHER MODELS CONTINUE TO OFFER THE RAIN JUST A BIT FURTHER
SOUTHEAST...BUT SOLIDLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...AND SOUTHEAST
OF A YORK TO RED CLOUD LINE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. THAT IS
WERE THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES HAVE BEEN...AND CONTINUE TO
BE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE...THERE WILL
BE AN EXTREMELY SHARP CUTOFF FROM RAIN TO NO-RAIN PROBABLY SOUTHEAST
OF HASTINGS. IN THE RAIN AREA...ITS A SOLID CHILLY RAIN...BUT WILL
END ABOUT AS ABRUPTLY AS IT CAN AT SOME POINT ON ITS NORTHWEST EDGE.
RAIN AMOUNTS COULD BE DECENT IN THIS BAND...ALTHOUGH ITS HARD TO
SELL OUT GIVEN THE EXACT BAND LOCATION WILL NOT BE KNOW FOR SEVERAL
HOURS. THE RAIN WRAPS UP BY MIDDAY IN THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA...
AND CLEARING SKIES WILL PULL EAST NICELY BY AFTERNOON.
THE OTHER MAIN STORY ON MONDAY IS THE WIND. DEEPENING LOW...GOOD
MIXING...NICE UNI-DIRECTIONAL SHEAR...ALL POINT TO STRONG MOMENTUM
TRANSFER DOWNWARD OF STRONG WINDS. GUST POTENTIAL IN THE 50 MPH IS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE LATE MORNING/MIDDAY TIMFRAME ACROSS
FAR SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS IN THE LATE MORNING
AND MIDDAY AREAS. HOISTED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE DAY MONDAY. IT MAY
NOT BE A SLAM DUNK IN THE NORTHEAST AREAS...AND BEGINNING AND ENDING
TIMES ARE NOT WELL ALIGNED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...BUT CONSENSUS
AMONG US AND SEVERAL KANSAS OFFICES WAS A WIND ADVISORY. ADVISORY
STARTS AT 7 AM AND ENDS AT 7 PM MONDAY FOR ALL AREAS TO MAKE THINGS
EASY.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
STARTING OUT MONDAY NIGHT...THE PATTERN ALOFT WILL BE AMPLIFIED WITH
AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NW...RIDGING OVER THE
ROCKIES...A TROUGH IN THE INTERIOR CONUS ACROSS THE PLAINS GENERALLY
ALONG THE MO RIVER...AND UPPER RIDGING IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. IN A
TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE SFC LOW IN IOWA...NORTH
WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG/GUST FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS DURING THE
EVENING BEFORE DECOUPLING.
THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO EXIT TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY WITH RISING HEIGHTS AND WARMER AIR WORKING ONTO THE PLAINS
AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE ROCKIES REACHES THE HIGH PLAINS. THE
LLVL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL NOT BE AS TIGHT ON TUESDAY HOWEVER
FORECAST SOUNDING INDICATE MIXING TO H85 WITH WINDS AT THE TOP OF
THE LAYER AROUND 25KTS THRU THE MORNING AND AROUND 20KTS IN THE AFTN
SO DO EXPECT SOME BREEZY NORTH WINDS AT TIMES ESPECIALLY FOR THE
FIRST PART OF THE DAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE STILL LOOKING
SEASONAL WITH HIGHS AVERAGING IN THE MID 60S.
BOTH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHTS LOOK TO BE THE COLDEST OF THE
EXTENDED PERIODS. SFC DPS DROP TO THE LOW/MID 30S AND LOW TEMPS IN
THE 30S ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. WIND SPEEDS BE LIGHTER TUESDAY NIGHT VS MONDAY NIGHT
UNDER INFLUENCE OF SURFACE RIDGE AND FROST DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR.
SINCE THE LOWER TEMPS WILL MATERIALIZE IN AREAS WHICH ALREADY
FROZE...WILL NOT INCLUDE FROST MENTION IN GRIDS/HWO ATTM.
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL SEE THE UPPER RIDGE DEAMPLIFY AS IT
MIGRATES ONTO THE PLAINS DUE TO ENERGY TRANSLATING FM THE PACIFIC NW
ACROSS THE US/CANADIAN BORDER. AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...TEMPS WILL MAKE A RUN NEAR OR INTO THE 70S ON WEDNESDAY.
THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTH EARLY THURSDAY...WITH OVERALL
COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT NEGLIGIBLE AND TEMPS GRADUALLY RETURN
CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS. THE NORTHERN CONUS SYSTEM DEEPENS IN
ONTARIO FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WORKWEEK WITH FLOW ACROSS THE
PLAINS TRANSITIONING MORE NORTHWESTERLY FOR A TIME. THERE ARE SOME
MODEL DIFFERENCES IN HANDLING THIS TROUGH AS WELL AS THE WESTERN
RIDGE AND DID NOT DEVIATE FROM EXTENDED INIT. FOR THE MOST PART THE
WEEKEND IS LOOKING MAINLY DRY ALTHOUGH MODELS HINT AS SOME LIGHT
PCPN DEVELOPMENT ON SUNDAY BUT THIS IS NOT CLEAR CUT. MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS AND FAIRLY SEASONAL TEMPS STILL LOOK REASONABLE FOR THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1214 AM CDT MON OCT 13 2014
THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING
AND WINDS HAVE TURNED TO THE NORTHWEST AND STARTED TO INCREASE. IN
ADDITION...MVFR CEILINGS HAVE SETTLED INTO THE AREA. THE CEILINGS
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH DAY BREAK THEN GRADUALLY LIFT BEFORE
CLEARING. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRONG DURING THE DAY
THEN DIMINISH SOME THIS EVENING.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.
KS...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR KSZ005>007-017>019.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HEINLEIN
SHORT TERM...NOAA/NWS/MORITZ
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...JCB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1153 PM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 154 PM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE TIMING AND EXTENT OF PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
RADAR SHOWING AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA LIFTING TOWARD NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AT 19Z. ALTHOUGH 12Z
MODELS SHOW SOME RAIN MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND MONDAY
THE BETTER CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL LOOKS TO STAY SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE CWA. LATEST RAP AND HRRR ALSO SHOW THIS TREND THROUGH
THE EVENING WITH BETTER FORCING AND INSTABILITY LOCATED TO THE
SOUTH.
HAVE ADJUSTED WEATHER DURING THIS TIME BY REMOVING MODERATE
CATEGORY OF RAIN AND KEPT JUST LIGHT SHOWERS TO REFLECT THIS
LATEST MODEL SOLUTION. SOME ISOLATED THUNDER IS POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST BORDER WHERE SOME INSTABILITY IS
INDICATED THROUGH 06Z. PRIMARY IMPACT WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE
WIND BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. INCREASING
NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA
AFTER 06Z TONIGHT THEN SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA ON
MONDAY. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL STAY JUST
WEST OF THE CWA ON MONDAY SO NO WIND HEADLINES FOR NOW. LATER
SHIFTS WILL REEVALUATE FOR ANY CHANGE TO THAT THINKING.
WINDS WILL BE DECREASING DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY ONCE SYSTEM
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COOL ON MONDAY DUE TO CLOUDS AND RAIN BUT THINGS WARM UP
QUICKLY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE NATION...ALTHOUGH 12Z ECMWF HOLDS ON TO THE
UPPER LOW OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LONGER THAN THE NAM OR
GFS WHICH COULD KEEP CLOUDS OVER EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA IF
THIS SOLUTION WORKS OUT.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 154 PM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014
EXTENDED MODELS SHOW SOME DIFFERENCE IN HANDLING OF THE UPPER
FEATURES DURING THE PERIOD...SO SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PART OF
THE FORECAST. PRIMARY TREND AT THIS TIME LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014
INITIAL BAND OF -RA HAS MOVED THROUGH THE TAFS. COLD FRONT IS
CURRENTLY MOVG THRU KOFK AND WILL MOV THROUGH KOMA/KLNK BY 08Z.
ALONG THE COLD FNT WE SHOULD CONT TO SEE SOME -DZ/-RA AT ALL 3
SITES FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. CIGS WILL BE A BIT VARIABLE AT KOFK FM
VFR TO MVFR...BUT MORE CONSISTENT MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AT
KOMA/KLNK OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL CONT TO INCREASE ON MON FM THE NW
WITH GUSTS LIKELY AT ALL 3 SITES. LATEST GUIDANCE INDCS BAND OF
-RA MAY BE SOUTH OF KOMA/KLNK ON MON MRNG BUT WL INCLUDE A TEMPO
GROUP FOR A FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE WE SHOULD SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT TO
VFR CONDS BY LATE AFTN AT KOMA/KLNK BUT CONT WITH A BKN MID LEVEL
DECK THRU THE END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1124 AM MDT MON OCT 13 2014
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOME STIFF NORTHERLY GUSTS WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT FAR EASTERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE MID
AFTERNOON...INCLUDING KCAO...KTCC...AND KCVS WHERE A FEW GUSTS OF
30 TO 35 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE BEFORE 13/2100UTC.
52
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...603 AM MDT MON OCT 13 2014...
.UPDATE...
EXPIRED WIND ADVISORY ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. WINDS HAVE
TAPERED OFF TO BETWEEN 15 AND 25MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH FROM
CLAYTON TO CLOVIS. THE 09Z HRRR 10-METER WIND SHOWS WINDS WILL
INCREASE SLIGHTLY AGAIN FOR AN HOUR OR TWO LATE THIS MORNING BEFORE
TAPERING OFF AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. WILL NOT EXTEND THE HIGHLIGHT
FOR THIS BRIEF WINDIER PERIOD AS THE MAIN IMPACT WINDOW HAS ENDED
AND THESE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE NEARLY AS STRONG AS WHAT
WAS EXPERIENCED OVERNIGHT AND LAST EVENING.
GUYER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...556 AM MDT MON OCT 13 2014...
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
STILL SOME BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS MAINLY THE EASTERN
BORDER COUNTIES OF NM INTO MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTN THEN DIMINISHING
SOME THROUGH THE MID AND LATE AFTN. SOME GUSTS MAY STILL REACH
BETWEEN 25 AND 35KT OUT EAST WITH TCC A LIKELY IMPACTED TAF SITE.
A FEW FOG POCKETS POSSIBLE THROUGH MID MORN ACROSS SOME OF THE
COLDER AND WETTER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS IN NORTHERN NM. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS BY FAR THE RULE AS DRY AND DIMINISHING N TO NW FLOW
ALOFT WILL BE IN PLAY THROUGH THE END OF THE FCST PERIOD.
43
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...344 AM MDT MON OCT 13 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
THE STORM SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT ALL THE STRONG WINDS TO THE REGION
SUNDAY WILL GRADUALLY EXIT THE AREA TODAY. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
WINDY OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS ALONG THE TEXAS STATE LINE THROUGH
LATE THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE BELOW
NORMAL FOR MID OCTOBER WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE. CHILLY TEMPERATURES
WILL DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. VERY
PLEASANT WEATHER IS ON TAP TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND SUNNY SKIES.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONSIDERATIONS THIS MORNING WERE STRENGTH AND DURATION OF WINDY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS...AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES
OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NM TONIGHT. LATEST OBSERVATIONS SHOW SURFACE
WINDS ARE STILL ELEVATED FROM CLAYTON TO TUCUMCARI AND CLOVIS...BUT
SPEEDS ARE ONLY MARGINAL TO SLIGHTLY UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA. WINDS
MAY COME BACK UP WITH INITIAL MIXING THIS MORNING FOR A FEW HOURS SO
THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR AN HOUR OR TWO OF ADVISORY WINDS AGAIN.
WILL NOT HOWEVER EXTEND PRODUCT SINCE MAIN IMPACT PERIOD IS OVER AND
WINDS WILL NOT BE NEAR AS STRONG AS WHAT HAS ALREADY OCCURRED. THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH
THE MORNING SO CONFIDENCE ON EXTENSION OF THE ADVISORY IS LOW. TEMPS
ARE ALSO STRUGGLING TO FALL OVER THE NW PLATEAU WHERE WINDS REMAINED
ELEVATED THROUGH 3 AM...SO WILL CANCEL THAT PORTION OF THE FREEZE
WARNING. THE AREA AROUND ESPANOLA IS ALSO NOT FALLING AS MUCH AS
DESIRED FOR FREEZING CONDITIONS...BUT POINTS IMMEDIATELY TO THE
NORTH AND WEST MAY HIT FOR AN HOUR OR TWO.
THE NEXT CHALLENGE WAS TONIGHTS TEMPS. THE BULK OF MOS GUIDANCE HAS
READINGS ONLY HOVERING NEAR FREEZING ACROSS FREEZE ZONES IN THE
NORTH...EXCEPT THE MET...WHICH IS MUCH COLDER. WENT WITH CONSENSUS
GUIDANCE AND WILL ALLOW DAY SHIFT TO TAKE ANOTHER LOOK BEFORE A
FREEZE WARNING IS ISSUED. OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL ACTUALLY BE CLOSE
TO NORMAL TONIGHT FOR MOST AREAS UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
THE PICK OF THE WEEK IS TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS BUILDING
WEST OF NM. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT WINDS...BRIGHT SUNNY SKIES...
AND WARMING TEMPS. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY AGAIN BUT WARMER
THAN TONIGHT. THE H5 HIGH CENTER WILL CREST OVER SE ARIZONA AT 589DM
WEDNESDAY MORNING THEN BREAK DOWN OVER NM THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
YET ANOTHER DELIGHTFUL DAY IS ON TAP WITH EVEN WARMER TEMPS...SUNNY
SKIES...AND DRY CONDITIONS. SURFACE LEE TROUGHING WILL INCREASE OVER
THE EAST AND SUBSEQUENTLY WILL THE TEMPS WITH KATABATIC FLOW. HIGHS
WILL AVERAGE BTWN 5 AND 15F ABOVE NORMAL. ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THURSDAY BEHIND THE FLATTENING RIDGE. A WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT
ENTERING THE PLAINS WILL TREND TEMPS BACK TOWARD NORMAL.
GUYER
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE EASTERN PLAINS
WILL EASE BACK JUST A BIT THROUGH THE EARLY MORN HOURS IN EAST
QUARTER TO THIRD OF NM...BUT SHOULD...FOR A 2 TO 4 HOUR PERIOD MID
MORN TO AROUND MIDDAY TODAY...INCREASE BACK TO NEAR THE 20 TO NEARLY
35 MPH RANGE. DURING THIS CRITICAL WIND SPEED PERIOD...RH VALUES NOT
EXPECTED TO DROP TO CRITICAL VALUES. THIS PLUS THE RECENT DECENT
RAINS ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THIS AREA WOULD PRECLUDE ANY RED FLAG
CONDITIONS. IN FACT AFTER THE MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTN PERIOD...IT LOOKS
LIKE CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS ARE NOT LIKELY THROUGH THE WHOLE
WEEK AS WINDS WILL DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY LATER TODAY AND STAY BELOW
CRITICAL VALUES FOR SOME TIME. TEMPERATURES TO BE COOLER THAN THE
NORM TODAY...BUT BY TUE AFTN LOOKING AT VALUES JUST A FEW DEGREES
EITHER SIDE OF SEASONAL NORMS. THEREAFTER ABOVE NORMAL VALUES INTO
THIS NEXT WEEKEND. VENTILATION RATES GENERALLY VERY GOOD TO
EXCELLENT EAST THIRD...MOSTLY GOOD NORTH AND POOR TO FAIR GENERALLY
ELSEWHERE. EXPECT BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING AND STRONGER TEMP
INVERSIONS TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. COLDER TEMPERATURES
CAN BE EXPECTED WITH MORE READINGS AT OR BELOW FREEZING...INCLUDING
THE POTENTIAL FOR A FREEZE IN SOME OF THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS...
ESTANCIA VALLEY...AND OTHER SHELTERED LOCATIONS.
A PROGRESSIVE UPPER RIDGE WILL EASE INTO NM TUE. DESPITE THE
AFOREMENTIONED WARM-UP...LOOK FOR POOR VENTILATION RATES EXCEPT
PERHAPS IN THE FAR EAST. DRY AND CLEAR CONDITIONS OTHERWISE AREAWIDE
TUE.
THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK APPEARS TO REMAIN DRY AND TRANQUIL.
A WIND SHIFT IN THE EAST COULD LOWER TEMPERATURES A FEW TO SEVERAL
DEGREES IN THE EAST FRIDAY...BUT CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE FAIRLY
TRANQUIL. LOOKING AT SOME MINOR TO MODERATE IMPROVEMENT IN
VENTILATION RATES WED THROUGH FRI...BUT GENERALLY NO BETTER THAN
FAIR TO GOOD.
43
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
603 AM MDT MON OCT 13 2014
.UPDATE...
EXPIRED WIND ADVISORY ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. WINDS HAVE
TAPERED OFF TO BETWEEN 15 AND 25MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH FROM
CLAYTON TO CLOVIS. THE 09Z HRRR 10-METER WIND SHOWS WINDS WILL
INCREASE SLIGHTLY AGAIN FOR AN HOUR OR TWO LATE THIS MORNING BEFORE
TAPERING OFF AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. WILL NOT EXTEND THE HIGHLIGHT
FOR THIS BRIEF WINDIER PERIOD AS THE MAIN IMPACT WINDOW HAS ENDED
AND THESE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE NEARLY AS STRONG AS WHAT
WAS EXPERIENCED OVERNIGHT AND LAST EVENING.
GUYER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...556 AM MDT MON OCT 13 2014...
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
STILL SOME BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS MAINLY THE EASTERN
BORDER COUNTIES OF NM INTO MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTN THEN DIMINISHING
SOME THROUGH THE MID AND LATE AFTN. SOME GUSTS MAY STILL REACH
BETWEEN 25 AND 35KT OUT EAST WITH TCC A LIKELY IMPACTED TAF SITE.
A FEW FOG POCKETS POSSIBLE THROUGH MID MORN ACROSS SOME OF THE
COLDER AND WETTER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS IN NORTHERN NM. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS BY FAR THE RULE AS DRY AND DIMINISHING N TO NW FLOW
ALOFT WILL BE IN PLAY THROUGH THE END OF THE FCST PERIOD.
43
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...344 AM MDT MON OCT 13 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
THE STORM SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT ALL THE STRONG WINDS TO THE REGION
SUNDAY WILL GRADUALLY EXIT THE AREA TODAY. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
WINDY OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS ALONG THE TEXAS STATE LINE THROUGH
LATE THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE BELOW
NORMAL FOR MID OCTOBER WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE. CHILLY TEMPERATURES
WILL DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. VERY
PLEASANT WEATHER IS ON TAP TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND SUNNY SKIES.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONSIDERATIONS THIS MORNING WERE STRENGTH AND DURATION OF WINDY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS...AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES
OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NM TONIGHT. LATEST OBSERVATIONS SHOW SURFACE
WINDS ARE STILL ELEVATED FROM CLAYTON TO TUCUMCARI AND CLOVIS...BUT
SPEEDS ARE ONLY MARGINAL TO SLIGHTLY UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA. WINDS
MAY COME BACK UP WITH INITIAL MIXING THIS MORNING FOR A FEW HOURS SO
THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR AN HOUR OR TWO OF ADVISORY WINDS AGAIN.
WILL NOT HOWEVER EXTEND PRODUCT SINCE MAIN IMPACT PERIOD IS OVER AND
WINDS WILL NOT BE NEAR AS STRONG AS WHAT HAS ALREADY OCCURRED. THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH
THE MORNING SO CONFIDENCE ON EXTENSION OF THE ADVISORY IS LOW. TEMPS
ARE ALSO STRUGGLING TO FALL OVER THE NW PLATEAU WHERE WINDS REMAINED
ELEVATED THROUGH 3 AM...SO WILL CANCEL THAT PORTION OF THE FREEZE
WARNING. THE AREA AROUND ESPANOLA IS ALSO NOT FALLING AS MUCH AS
DESIRED FOR FREEZING CONDITIONS...BUT POINTS IMMEDIATELY TO THE
NORTH AND WEST MAY HIT FOR AN HOUR OR TWO.
THE NEXT CHALLENGE WAS TONIGHTS TEMPS. THE BULK OF MOS GUIDANCE HAS
READINGS ONLY HOVERING NEAR FREEZING ACROSS FREEZE ZONES IN THE
NORTH...EXCEPT THE MET...WHICH IS MUCH COLDER. WENT WITH CONSENSUS
GUIDANCE AND WILL ALLOW DAY SHIFT TO TAKE ANOTHER LOOK BEFORE A
FREEZE WARNING IS ISSUED. OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL ACTUALLY BE CLOSE
TO NORMAL TONIGHT FOR MOST AREAS UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
THE PICK OF THE WEEK IS TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS BUILDING
WEST OF NM. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT WINDS...BRIGHT SUNNY SKIES...
AND WARMING TEMPS. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY AGAIN BUT WARMER
THAN TONIGHT. THE H5 HIGH CENTER WILL CREST OVER SE ARIZONA AT 589DM
WEDNESDAY MORNING THEN BREAK DOWN OVER NM THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
YET ANOTHER DELIGHTFUL DAY IS ON TAP WITH EVEN WARMER TEMPS...SUNNY
SKIES...AND DRY CONDITIONS. SURFACE LEE TROUGHING WILL INCREASE OVER
THE EAST AND SUBSEQUENTLY WILL THE TEMPS WITH KATABATIC FLOW. HIGHS
WILL AVERAGE BTWN 5 AND 15F ABOVE NORMAL. ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THURSDAY BEHIND THE FLATTENING RIDGE. A WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT
ENTERING THE PLAINS WILL TREND TEMPS BACK TOWARD NORMAL.
GUYER
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE EASTERN PLAINS
WILL EASE BACK JUST A BIT THROUGH THE EARLY MORN HOURS IN EAST
QUARTER TO THIRD OF NM...BUT SHOULD...FOR A 2 TO 4 HOUR PERIOD MID
MORN TO AROUND MIDDAY TODAY...INCREASE BACK TO NEAR THE 20 TO NEARLY
35 MPH RANGE. DURING THIS CRITICAL WIND SPEED PERIOD...RH VALUES NOT
EXPECTED TO DROP TO CRITICAL VALUES. THIS PLUS THE RECENT DECENT
RAINS ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THIS AREA WOULD PRECLUDE ANY RED FLAG
CONDITIONS. IN FACT AFTER THE MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTN PERIOD...IT LOOKS
LIKE CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS ARE NOT LIKELY THROUGH THE WHOLE
WEEK AS WINDS WILL DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY LATER TODAY AND STAY BELOW
CRITICAL VALUES FOR SOME TIME. TEMPERATURES TO BE COOLER THAN THE
NORM TODAY...BUT BY TUE AFTN LOOKING AT VALUES JUST A FEW DEGREES
EITHER SIDE OF SEASONAL NORMS. THEREAFTER ABOVE NORMAL VALUES INTO
THIS NEXT WEEKEND. VENTILATION RATES GENERALLY VERY GOOD TO
EXCELLENT EAST THIRD...MOSTLY GOOD NORTH AND POOR TO FAIR GENERALLY
ELSEWHERE. EXPECT BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING AND STRONGER TEMP
INVERSIONS TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. COLDER TEMPERATURES
CAN BE EXPECTED WITH MORE READINGS AT OR BELOW FREEZING...INCLUDING
THE POTENTIAL FOR A FREEZE IN SOME OF THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS...
ESTANCIA VALLEY...AND OTHER SHELTERED LOCATIONS.
A PROGRESSIVE UPPER RIDGE WILL EASE INTO NM TUE. DESPITE THE
AFOREMENTIONED WARM-UP...LOOK FOR POOR VENTILATION RATES EXCEPT
PERHAPS IN THE FAR EAST. DRY AND CLEAR CONDITIONS OTHERWISE AREAWIDE
TUE.
THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK APPEARS TO REMAIN DRY AND TRANQUIL.
A WIND SHIFT IN THE EAST COULD LOWER TEMPERATURES A FEW TO SEVERAL
DEGREES IN THE EAST FRIDAY...BUT CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE FAIRLY
TRANQUIL. LOOKING AT SOME MINOR TO MODERATE IMPROVEMENT IN
VENTILATION RATES WED THROUGH FRI...BUT GENERALLY NO BETTER THAN
FAIR TO GOOD.
43
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ517.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
730 AM EDT MON OCT 13 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY BRINGING A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AND MILD TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR
WELL ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER. A COLD FRONT
WILL THEN SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES JUST NORTH OF THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY
COOLING BACK TO NEAR AVERAGE BY NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WAS SITUATED OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST
THIS MORNING. STRENGTHENING RETURN FLOW OVERSPREADING WESTERN NEW
YORK RESULTING IN INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND RISING TEMPERATURES.
REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY OTHER
THAN A FEW SPRINKLES AT THIS POINT SUGGESTING WEAK LARGE SCALE
FORCING.
WARM AIR/MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE MAINTAINED TODAY AS DIFFUSE
WARM FRONT MOVES NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION. FORCING WILL REMAIN
VERY LIMITED WITH ONLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS EXPECTED. THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY LATEST HRRR RUNS SHOWING VERY LIMITED ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
TEMPERATURES TODAY LOOK TO BE AT LEAST 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AS
850MB TEMPERATURES RISE TO AROUND +11C TO +13C BY AFTERNOON...
SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS FROM
THE GENESEE VALLEY WESTWARD...WITH 60S MORE PREVALENT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY.
TONIGHT...THERE STILL COULD BE A FEW WARM ADVECTION DRIVEN SHOWERS
BUT FOR THE MOST PART CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES REMAINING
MILD UNDERNEATH CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH LOWS ONLY DROPPING
INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
IT WILL BE UNSEASONABLY MILD AND INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED DURING THIS
PERIOD AS A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN...FEATURING AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP
(-3 STD) TROUGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WILL GENERATE A 555DM
CLOSED LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS DOMINANT BLOCK WILL REMAIN TO
OUR WEST THROUGH THIS PERIOD...SO BEING ON THE `WARM` SIDE OF THE
FEATURE...OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BE GUARANTEED TO EXPERIENCE ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE
DOWNRIGHT SUMMER LIKE WITH READINGS MORE TYPICAL OF LATE JULY/EARLY
AUGUST. WHILE THE MERCURY WILL TREND LOWER AFTER THAT POINT...THEY
WILL MOST CERTAINLY REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.
BY THE TIME WE OPEN THIS PERIOD ON TUESDAY...A MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION WILL HAVE ALREADY TAKEN SHAPE OVER MISSOURI. ITS
ATTENDANT SUB-1000MB SFC LOW OVER ILLINOIS WILL LIKELY OCCLUDE BY
THE END OF THE DAY...MARKING THE PEAK STRENGTH OF THE OVERALL
SYSTEM. MEANWHILE DOWNSTREAM..A 40KT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL
PUMP H85 TEMPS OF +15/16C ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. BEING DEEP
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE STORM SYSTEM...THIS WILL SEND OUR
AFTERNOON HIGHS TO BETWEEN 75 AND 80...WITH THE VALLEYS AND LAKE
PLAINS WEST OF ROCHESTER LIKELY PUSHING INTO THE LOWER 80S. THE
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL NOT ONLY HELP TO PRODUCE
UNUSUAL WARMTH ACROSS OUR REGION...BUT WILL KEEP PCPN FROM THE
AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM WELL TO OUR WEST.
THE MATURE...VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM WILL BE CENTERED OVER
ILLINOIS TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE AN OCCLUDED SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
STRETCH SOUTHWARDS ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS. A 45-50KT
LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO RETARD THE
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER OUR
REGION...SO WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF SLOWING THE ONSET OF PCPN.
WILL BACK OFF POPS TO CHC FOR THE WESTERN COUNTIES AND SLGT CHC FOR
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. WHILE THE STRONG LLJ WILL TEMPORARILY
KEEP THE PCPN TO OUR WEST...IT WILL ADVECT PWAT VALUES OF 1.5 TO
1.75" INTO OUR AREA FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...SETTING
THE STAGE FOR A POTENTIALLY VERY WET 18 HOUR PERIOD. TUESDAY NIGHT
LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 60 TO 65...WHICH WILL BE SOME 20
DEGREES F ABOVE NORMAL. ANOTHER WAY OF LOOKING AT THE ANOMALOUS
NATURE OF THESE VALUES IS THAT THEY WILL ACTUALLY BE NOTABLY HIGHER
THAN WHAT THE DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD BE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
ON WEDNESDAY...THE STACKED LOW WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE MID WEST WHILE
THE AXIS OF DEEPEST MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH ITS SFC OCCLUDED FRONT
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES OF NEW YORK. GIVEN PWAT VALUES
IN THE VCNTY OF 1.75"...LIFT PROVIDED BY A STRONGLY DIVERGENT UPPER
LEVEL FLOW AND 40+KT LOW LEVEL JET JUST AHEAD OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT
SHOULD PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH RAINFALL LIKELY REACHING A
HALF TO ONE INCH OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES. WHILE THE AIRMASS WILL
ONLY BE MARGINALLY UNSTABLE...THE SYNOPTIC FORCING COULD BE ENOUGH
TO TOUCH OFF AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. WILL USE CAT POPS OVER
THE WESTERN COUNTIES AND LIKELY EAST OF LK ONTARIO.
THE CLOSED LOW WILL SLOWLY START TO OPEN UP AS IT MAKES ITS WAY TO
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE SFC OCCLUSION
WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS OUR FINGER LAKES REGION. THIS WILL PLACE
SITES FROM THE FINGER LAKES EAST IN THE PRIME AREA FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS...WITH THE ACTIVITY OVER THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES TAPERING
OFF DURING THE COURSE OF THE NIGHT AS A DRY SLOT WORKS IN BEHIND THE
OCCLUSION.
THE FILLING UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS LOWER
MICHIGAN ON THURSDAY...WHILE ITS SUPPORTING LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. AT THE SFC...
THE OCCLUSION WILL EXIT THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION...BUT NOT
BEFORE PRODUCING A FEW MORE HOURS OF SHOWERS DURING THE MORNING.
WHILE SYNOPTIC MOISTURE WILL ROTATE BACK ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED DRY SLOT...THERE WILL BE A LACK OF
ANY SIGNIFICANT FORCING MECHANISM TO SUPPORT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
SHOWERS WITHIN THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...SO WILL ONLY USE
CHC POPS FOR THE WESTERN COUNTIES.
THE BASE OF THE NEGATIVELY TILTED LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS
OUR FORECAST AREA THURSDAY EVENING BEFORE EXITING DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOW LEVEL RIDGING AND A GENERAL LACK OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT FORCING SHOULD NOT DO MUCH TO PROMOTE ANY ORGANIZED
SHOWER ACTIVITY...SO WILL BACK OFF ON POPS AND ONLY USE LOW CHC.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE NEARLY AS ACTIVE DURING THIS
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH WE CAN ANTICIPATE A TREND TOWARDS LOWER...MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
AS ENERGY WITHIN THE EXITING STORM SYSTEM PUSHES NORTH ACROSS QUEBEC
ON FRIDAY...A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE LEFT ACROSS MUCH OF
EASTERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES. THIS TROUGH WILL BECOME
RE-ENERGIZED (`RELOAD` IF YOU WILL) DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY AS
A ROBUST SHORTWAVE OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME WEAK
RIDGING OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...ENOUGH TO LIKELY KEEP THE DAY
RAIN FREE. H85 TEMPS ARND 8C WILL SUPPORT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
60S.
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WILL DIG INTO...AND THEREBY
SHARPEN...THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS
OUR REGION...PRODUCING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE PROCESS.
BY SUNDAY...THE TROUGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY
WITH DEEP COLD ADVECTION OVER OUR REGION SENDING H85 TEMPS TO NEAR
2C. THIS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO CREATE SOME LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY
WITH NUISANCE LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS EAST OF BOTH LAKES. HIGHS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD ONLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE TAF CYCLE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
WARM ADVECTION PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TODAY WHICH WILL
HELP ADVECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER
CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. CIGS SHOULD BE PRIMARILY
LOW VFR ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK AS SOUTHERLY
DOWNSLOPE WINDS PREVAIL. ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
TIER EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF
TODAY...WITH SOME IFR POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.
A WEAK LOW LEVEL JET WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH WINDS
INCREASING TO AROUND 30 KNOTS JUST OFF THE DECK. IT APPEARS WIND
SPEEDS WILL NOT BE QUITE HIGH ENOUGH TO PRODUCE TRUE LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR. THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR LATE
TONIGHT AS A 40 KNOT JET AXIS FOCUSES ON WESTERN NEW YORK.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY...AREAS OF MVFR WITH SHOWERS LIKELY AND A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS.
THURSDAY...AREAS OF MVFR WITH SHOWERS LIKELY.
FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE WESTERN LAKES
BY WEDNESDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE LOW
TODAY...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA THROUGH TUESDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE FURTHER ON
TUESDAY NIGHT AND MAY BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS...
ALTHOUGH THE OFFSHORE WIND COMPONENT WILL KEEP THE GREATER WAVE
ACTION IN CANADA.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...TMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
431 AM EDT MON OCT 13 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY BRINGING A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AND MILD TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR
WELL ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER. A COLD FRONT
WILL THEN SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES JUST NORTH OF THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY
COOLING BACK TO NEAR AVERAGE BY NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WAS SITUATED OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST
THIS MORNING. STRENGTHENING RETURN FLOW OVERSPREADING WESTERN NEW
YORK RESULTING IN INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND RISING TEMPERATURES.
REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY OTHER
THAN A FEW SPRINKLES AT THIS POINT SUGGESTING WEAK LARGE SCALE
FORCING.
WARM AIR/MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE MAINTAINED TODAY AS DIFFUSE
WARM FRONT MOVES NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION. FORCING WILL REMAIN
VERY LIMITED WITH ONLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS EXPECTED. THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY LATEST HRRR RUNS SHOWING VERY LIMITED ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
TEMPERATURES TODAY LOOK TO BE AT LEAST 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AS
850MB TEMPERATURES RISE TO AROUND +11C TO +13C BY AFTERNOON...
SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS FROM
THE GENESEE VALLEY WESTWARD...WITH 60S MORE PREVALENT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY.
TONIGHT...THERE STILL COULD BE A FEW WARM ADVECTION DRIVEN SHOWERS
BUT FOR THE MOST PART CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES REMAINING
MILD UNDERNEATH CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH LOWS ONLY DROPPING
INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
IT WILL BE UNSEASONABLY MILD AND INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED DURING THIS
PERIOD AS A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN...FEATURING AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP
(-3 STD) TROUGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WILL GENERATE A 555DM
CLOSED LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS DOMINANT BLOCK WILL REMAIN TO
OUR WEST THROUGH THIS PERIOD...SO BEING ON THE `WARM` SIDE OF THE
FEATURE...OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BE GUARANTEED TO EXPERIENCE ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE
DOWNRIGHT SUMMER LIKE WITH READINGS MORE TYPICAL OF LATE JULY/EARLY
AUGUST. WHILE THE MERCURY WILL TREND LOWER AFTER THAT POINT...THEY
WILL MOST CERTAINLY REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.
BY THE TIME WE OPEN THIS PERIOD ON TUESDAY...A MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION WILL HAVE ALREADY TAKEN SHAPE OVER MISSOURI. ITS
ATTENDANT SUB-1000MB SFC LOW OVER ILLINOIS WILL LIKELY OCCLUDE BY
THE END OF THE DAY...MARKING THE PEAK STRENGTH OF THE OVERALL
SYSTEM. MEANWHILE DOWNSTREAM..A 40KT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL
PUMP H85 TEMPS OF +15/16C ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. BEING DEEP
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE STORM SYSTEM...THIS WILL SEND OUR
AFTERNOON HIGHS TO BETWEEN 75 AND 80...WITH THE VALLEYS AND LAKE
PLAINS WEST OF ROCHESTER LIKELY PUSHING INTO THE LOWER 80S. THE
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL NOT ONLY HELP TO PRODUCE
UNUSUAL WARMTH ACROSS OUR REGION...BUT WILL KEEP PCPN FROM THE
AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM WELL TO OUR WEST.
THE MATURE...VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM WILL BE CENTERED OVER
ILLINOIS TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE AN OCCLUDED SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
STRETCH SOUTHWARDS ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS. A 45-50KT
LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO RETARD THE
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER OUR
REGION...SO WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF SLOWING THE ONSET OF PCPN.
WILL BACK OFF POPS TO CHC FOR THE WESTERN COUNTIES AND SLGT CHC FOR
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. WHILE THE STRONG LLJ WILL TEMPORARILY
KEEP THE PCPN TO OUR WEST...IT WILL ADVECT PWAT VALUES OF 1.5 TO
1.75" INTO OUR AREA FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...SETTING
THE STAGE FOR A POTENTIALLY VERY WET 18 HOUR PERIOD. TUESDAY NIGHT
LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 60 TO 65...WHICH WILL BE SOME 20
DEGREES F ABOVE NORMAL. ANOTHER WAY OF LOOKING AT THE ANOMALOUS
NATURE OF THESE VALUES IS THAT THEY WILL ACTUALLY BE NOTABLY HIGHER
THAN WHAT THE DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD BE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
ON WEDNESDAY...THE STACKED LOW WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE MID WEST WHILE
THE AXIS OF DEEPEST MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH ITS SFC OCCLUDED FRONT
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES OF NEW YORK. GIVEN PWAT VALUES
IN THE VCNTY OF 1.75"...LIFT PROVIDED BY A STRONGLY DIVERGENT UPPER
LEVEL FLOW AND 40+KT LOW LEVEL JET JUST AHEAD OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT
SHOULD PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH RAINFALL LIKELY REACHING A
HALF TO ONE INCH OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES. WHILE THE AIRMASS WILL
ONLY BE MARGINALLY UNSTABLE...THE SYNOPTIC FORCING COULD BE ENOUGH
TO TOUCH OFF AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. WILL USE CAT POPS OVER
THE WESTERN COUNTIES AND LIKELY EAST OF LK ONTARIO.
THE CLOSED LOW WILL SLOWLY START TO OPEN UP AS IT MAKES ITS WAY TO
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE SFC OCCLUSION
WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS OUR FINGER LAKES REGION. THIS WILL PLACE
SITES FROM THE FINGER LAKES EAST IN THE PRIME AREA FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS...WITH THE ACTIVITY OVER THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES TAPERING
OFF DURING THE COURSE OF THE NIGHT AS A DRY SLOT WORKS IN BEHIND THE
OCCLUSION.
THE FILLING UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS LOWER
MICHIGAN ON THURSDAY...WHILE ITS SUPPORTING LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. AT THE SFC...
THE OCCLUSION WILL EXIT THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION...BUT NOT
BEFORE PRODUCING A FEW MORE HOURS OF SHOWERS DURING THE MORNING.
WHILE SYNOPTIC MOISTURE WILL ROTATE BACK ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED DRY SLOT...THERE WILL BE A LACK OF
ANY SIGNIFICANT FORCING MECHANISM TO SUPPORT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
SHOWERS WITHIN THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...SO WILL ONLY USE
CHC POPS FOR THE WESTERN COUNTIES.
THE BASE OF THE NEGATIVELY TILTED LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS
OUR FORECAST AREA THURSDAY EVENING BEFORE EXITING DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOW LEVEL RIDGING AND A GENERAL LACK OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT FORCING SHOULD NOT DO MUCH TO PROMOTE ANY ORGANIZED
SHOWER ACTIVITY...SO WILL BACK OFF ON POPS AND ONLY USE LOW CHC.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE NEARLY AS ACTIVE DURING THIS
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH WE CAN ANTICIPATE A TREND TOWARDS LOWER...MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
AS ENERGY WITHIN THE EXITING STORM SYSTEM PUSHES NORTH ACROSS QUEBEC
ON FRIDAY...A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE LEFT ACROSS MUCH OF
EASTERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES. THIS TROUGH WILL BECOME
RE-ENERGIZED (`RELOAD` IF YOU WILL) DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY AS
A ROBUST SHORTWAVE OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME WEAK
RIDGING OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...ENOUGH TO LIKELY KEEP THE DAY
RAIN FREE. H85 TEMPS ARND 8C WILL SUPPORT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
60S.
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WILL DIG INTO...AND THEREBY
SHARPEN...THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS
OUR REGION...PRODUCING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE PROCESS.
BY SUNDAY...THE TROUGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY
WITH DEEP COLD ADVECTION OVER OUR REGION SENDING H85 TEMPS TO NEAR
2C. THIS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO CREATE SOME LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY
WITH NUISANCE LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS EAST OF BOTH LAKES. HIGHS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD ONLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE TAF CYCLE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
WARM ADVECTION WILL INCREASE TODAY WHICH WILL HELP ADVECT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY...WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD
COVER CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY. CIGS SHOULD BE
PRIMARILY LOW VFR ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK AS
SOUTHERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS INCREASE.
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND LAST INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF
MONDAY...WITH SOME IFR POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. LOW
VFR/MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE
KBUF/KIAG/KROC TERMINALS. FINALLY...LOW VFR CIGS WILL REACH KART
BY THIS MORNING. EXPECT MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH
SOME IFR POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS HERE AS WELL.
A WEAK LOW LEVEL JET WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH WINDS
INCREASING TO AROUND 30 KNOTS JUST OFF THE DECK. IT APPEARS WIND
SPEEDS WILL NOT BE QUITE HIGH ENOUGH TO PRODUCE TRUE LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY...AREAS OF MVFR WITH SHOWERS LIKELY AND A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS.
THURSDAY...AREAS OF MVFR WITH SHOWERS LIKELY.
FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE WESTERN LAKES
BY WEDNESDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE LOW
TODAY...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA THROUGH TUESDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE FURTHER ON
TUESDAY NIGHT AND MAY BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS...
ALTHOUGH THE OFFSHORE WIND COMPONENT WILL KEEP THE GREATER WAVE
ACTION IN CANADA.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...TMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
425 AM EDT MON OCT 13 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY BRINGING A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AND MILD TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR
WELL ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER. A COLD FRONT
WILL THEN SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES JUST NORTH OF THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY
COOLING BACK TO NEAR AVERAGE BY NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WAS SITUATED OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST
THIS MORNING. STRENGTHENING RETURN FLOW OVERSPREADING WESTERN NEW
YORK RESULTING IN INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND RISING TEMPERATURES.
REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY OTHER
THAN A FEW SPRINKLES AT THIS POINT SUGGESTING WEAK LARGE SCALE
FORCING.
WARM AIR/MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE MAINTAINED TODAY AS DIFFUSE
WARM FRONT MOVES NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION. FORCING WILL REMAIN
VERY LIMITED WITH ONLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS EXPECTED. THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY LATEST HRRR RUNS SHOWING VERY LIMITED ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
TEMPERATURES TODAY LOOK TO BE AT LEAST 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AS
850MB TEMPERATURES RISE TO AROUND +11C TO +13C BY AFTERNOON...
SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS FROM
THE GENESEE VALLEY WESTWARD...WITH 60S MORE PREVALENT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY.
TONIGHT...THERE STILL COULD BE A FEW WARM ADVECTION DRIVEN SHOWERS
BUT FOR THE MOST PART CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES REMAINING
MILD UNDERNEATH CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH LOWS ONLY DROPPING
INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
IT WILL BE UNSEASONABLY MILD AND INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED DURING THIS
PERIOD AS A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN...FEATURING AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP
(-3 STD) TROUGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WILL GENERATE A SUB-
565DM CLOSED LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS DOMINANT BLOCK WILL
REMAIN TO OUR WEST THROUGH THIS PERIOD...SO BEING ON THE `WARM` SIDE
OF THE FEATURE...OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BE GUARANTEED TO EXPERIENCE
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE
DOWNRIGHT SUMMER LIKE WITH READINGS MORE TYPICAL OF LATE JULY/EARLY
AUGUST. WHILE THE MERCURY WILL TREND LOWER AFTER THAT POINT...THEY
WILL MOST CERTAINLY REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.
BY THE TIME WE OPEN THIS PERIOD ON TUESDAY...A MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION WILL HAVE ALREADY TAKEN SHAPE OVER MISSOURI. ITS
ATTENDANT SUB-1000MB SFC LOW OVER ILLINOIS WILL LIKELY OCCLUDE BY
THE END OF THE DAY...MARKING THE PEAK STRENGTH OF THE OVERALL
SYSTEM. MEANWHILE DOWNSTREAM..A 40KT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL
PUMP H85 TEMPS OF +15/16C ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. BEING DEEP
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE STORM SYSTEM...THIS WILL SEND OUR
AFTERNOON HIGHS TO BETWEEN 75 AND 80...WITH THE VALLEYS AND LAKE
PLAINS WEST OF ROCHESTER LIKELY PUSHING INTO THE LOWER 80S. THE
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL NOT ONLY HELP TO PRODUCE
UNUSUAL WARMTH ACROSS OUR REGION...BUT WILL KEEP PCPN FROM THE
AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM WELL TO OUR WEST.
THE MATURE...VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM WILL BE CENTERED OVER
ILLINOIS TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE AN OCCLUDED SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
STRETCH SOUTHWARDS ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS. A 45-50KT
LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO RETARD THE
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER OUR
REGION...SO WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF SLOWING THE ONSET OF PCPN.
WILL BACK OFF POPS TO CHC FOR THE WESTERN COUNTIES AND SLGT CHC FOR
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. WHILE THE STRONG LLJ WILL TEMPORARILY
KEEP THE PCPN TO OUR WEST...IT WILL ADVECT PWAT VALUES OF 1.5 TO
1.75" INTO OUR AREA FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...SETTING
THE STAGE FOR A POTENTIALLY VERY WET 18 HOUR PERIOD. TUESDAY NIGHT
LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 60 TO 65...WHICH WILL BE SOME 20
DEGREES F ABOVE NORMAL. ANOTHER WAY OF LOOKING AT THE ANOMALOUS
NATURE OF THESE VALUES IS THAT THEY WILL ACTUALLY BE NOTABLY HIGHER
THAN WHAT THE DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD BE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
ON WEDNESDAY...THE STACKED LOW WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE MID WEST WHILE
THE AXIS OF DEEPEST MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH ITS SFC OCCLUDED FRONT
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES OF NEW YORK. GIVEN PWAT VALUES
IN THE VCNTY OF 1.75"...LIFT PROVIDED BY A STRONGLY DIVERGENT UPPER
LEVEL FLOW AND 40+KT LOW LEVEL JET JUST AHEAD OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT
SHOULD PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH RAINFALL LIKELY REACHING A
HALF TO ONE INCH OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES. WHILE THE AIRMASS WILL
ONLY BE MARGINALLY UNSTABLE...THE SYNOPTIC FORCING COULD BE ENOUGH
TO TOUCH OFF AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. WILL USE CAT POPS OVER
THE WESTERN COUNTIES AND LIKELY EAST OF LK ONTARIO.
THE CLOSED LOW WILL SLOWLY START TO OPEN UP AS IT MAKES ITS WAY TO
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE SFC OCCLUSION
WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS OUR FINGER LAKES REGION. THIS WILL PLACE
SITES FROM THE FINGER LAKES EAST IN THE PRIME AREA FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS...WITH THE ACTIVITY OVER THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES TAPERING
OFF DURING THE COURSE OF THE NIGHT AS A DRY SLOT WORKS IN BEHIND THE
OCCLUSION.
THE FILLING UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS LOWER
MICHIGAN ON THURSDAY...WHILE ITS SUPPORTING LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. AT THE SFC...
THE OCCLUSION WILL EXIT THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION...BUT NOT
BEFORE PRODUCING A FEW MORE HOURS OF SHOWERS DURING THE MORNING.
WHILE SYNOPTIC MOISTURE WILL ROTATE BACK ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED DRY SLOT...THERE WILL BE A LACK OF
ANY SIGNIFICANT FORCING MECHANISM TO SUPPORT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
SHOWERS WITHIN THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...SO WILL ONLY USE
CHC POPS FOR THE WESTERN COUNTIES.
THE BASE OF THE NEGATIVELY TILTED LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS
OUR FORECAST AREA THURSDAY EVENING BEFORE EXITING DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOW LEVEL RIDGING AND A GENERAL LACK OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT FORCING SHOULD NOT DO MUCH TO PROMOTE ANY ORGANIZED
SHOWER ACTIVITY...SO WILL BACK OFF ON POPS AND ONLY USE LOW CHC.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE NEARLY AS ACTIVE DURING THIS
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH WE CAN ANTICIPATE A TREND TOWARDS LOWER...MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
AS ENERGY WITHIN THE EXITING STORM SYSTEM PUSHES NORTH ACROSS QUEBEC
ON FRIDAY...A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE LEFT ACROSS MUCH OF
EASTERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES. THIS TROUGH WILL BECOME
RE-ENERGIZED (`RELOAD` IF YOU WILL) DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY AS
A ROBUST SHORTWAVE OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME WEAK
RIDGING OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...ENOUGH TO LIKELY KEEP THE DAY
RAIN FREE. H85 TEMPS ARND 8C WILL SUPPORT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
60S.
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WILL DIG INTO...AND THEREBY
SHARPEN...THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS
OUR REGION...PRODUCING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE PROCESS.
BY SUNDAY...THE TROUGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY
WITH DEEP COLD ADVECTION OVER OUR REGION SENDING H85 TEMPS TO NEAR
2C. THIS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO CREATE SOME LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY
WITH NUISANCE LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS EAST OF BOTH LAKES. HIGHS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD ONLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE TAF CYCLE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
WARM ADVECTION WILL INCREASE TODAY WHICH WILL HELP ADVECT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY...WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD
COVER CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY. CIGS SHOULD BE
PRIMARILY LOW VFR ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK AS
SOUTHERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS INCREASE.
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND LAST INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF
MONDAY...WITH SOME IFR POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. LOW
VFR/MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE
KBUF/KIAG/KROC TERMINALS. FINALLY...LOW VFR CIGS WILL REACH KART
BY THIS MORNING. EXPECT MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH
SOME IFR POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS HERE AS WELL.
A WEAK LOW LEVEL JET WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH WINDS
INCREASING TO AROUND 30 KNOTS JUST OFF THE DECK. IT APPEARS WIND
SPEEDS WILL NOT BE QUITE HIGH ENOUGH TO PRODUCE TRUE LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY...AREAS OF MVFR WITH SHOWERS LIKELY AND A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS.
THURSDAY...AREAS OF MVFR WITH SHOWERS LIKELY.
FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE WESTERN LAKES
BY WEDNESDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE LOW
TODAY...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA THROUGH TUESDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE FURTHER ON
TUESDAY NIGHT AND MAY BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS...
ALTHOUGH THE OFFSHORE WIND COMPONENT WILL KEEP THE GREATER WAVE
ACTION IN CANADA.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...TMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
211 AM EDT MON OCT 13 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW YORK STATE WILL SLIDE EAST OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT. A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF WARMER AND INCREASINGLY
MOIST AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION MONDAY AND LAST THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. THE SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BRING MUCH MILDER WEATHER FOR THE REGION ESPECIALLY BY
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING 70 DEGREES IN
MANY LOCATIONS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION WEDNESDAY
WITH A CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE TEMPERATURES COOL DOWN LATER THIS WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
830 PM UPDATE...
BLIND SPOTS TO THE SOUTHWEST...AS WE ARE MISSING SOME RADAR DATA FROM
NEIGHBORING OFFICES. HOWEVER IT DOES APPEAR FROM THE MOSAIC
PICTURE THAT THE PRECIPITATION IS HAVING A HARD TIME MOVING NORTH
THROUGH THE COOL/DRY AIR MASS OVER CENTRAL PA. WILL NEED TO MAKE
ADJUSTMENTS TO PRECIP TIMING AND POPS TO BETTER REFLECT THE LATEST
TRENDS AND HRRR GUIDANCE.
3 PM UPDATE...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A RARE SIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL NEW
YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...COMPLETELY CLEAR SKIES. EVEN
WITH BRIGHT SUNSHINE...MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES STILL WERE A LITTLE
BELOW NORMAL WITH 50S DOMINATE. THE VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE
LOWER CLOUD SHIELD ACRS SRN OHIO...SW PA AND ACRS VA TO THE
DELMARVA. LATEST RAP AND NAM SHOWS THAT THE 850 MB RH FIELDS
CORRELATE WELL WITH THE NRN EDGE OF THIS CLD SHIELD TO THE S. WITH
A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER NY PROJECTED
TO SLIDE OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST BY 12Z MON...A SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP. THIS SRLY FLOW WILL ADVECT THIS CLD
SHIELD NORTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT AND EVENTUALLY SPREAD ACRS ALL OF C
NY AND NE PA BTWN ABT MIDNIGHT AND 8 AM MON AS PER LATEST RAP 850
MB RH FIELDS. ADDTNLY...WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
BEGIN OVERNIGHT AND LAST THRU MONDAY. BUT THIS OCCURS AS THE UPPER
LEVEL HGTS RISE INDICATING THAT THE ISENTROPES ARE DESCENDING WITH
THE WAA. THUS SOME OF THE ISEN LIFT WILL BE CANCELLED LATE TONIGHT
THRU MONDAY. HENCE WE DON/T SEE A LOT OF PRECIP. AFTER
COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING WFO`S DECIDED ON SLGHT TO CHC POPS
WITH THIS FIRST WAA WAVE THRU MON PM. HENCE INTRODUCE SLGHT CHC TO
CHC POPS BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THRU MONDAY FOR
-SHRA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE REBOUND WITH MAXES REACHING
WELL INTO THE 60S...AND POSSIBLY 70F IN THE UPPER FINGER LAKES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FIRST WAA/ISEN LIFT SURGE PASSES BY MON PM WITH A FEW SHRA. THEN
OVERNIGHT MON TO TUE...ALL 4 SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS INDICATE
INCREASING LL MOISTURE AND A SRLY FLOW AND WHAT LOOKS LIKE
DRIZZLE OR JUST A FEW LIGHT SHRA IN THE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF NE PA
AND SC NY/CATSKILLS. THUS HAVE SLGHT CHC-CHC POPS IN THESE AREAS
AND NO POPS FARTHER N TO THE LAKE ONTARIO PLAIN TO UPPER MOHAWK
VALLEY.
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...SRLY FLOW INCREASES AREA WIDE WITH INCREASING MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTO NY AND PA. THERE ARE UNCERTAINTIES AS TO THE TIMING
OF THE ARRIVAL OF THE MAIN FRNTL BAND OF SHRA WITH THE PROGRESSION
OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW EASTWARD. ALL SYNOPTIC MODELS INDICATE THAT
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW REACHES THE WRN OHIO VALLEY 12Z WED. BUT THE
STRGEST PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ASSCTD LL FLOW AND MOISTURE
TRANSPORT VARIES IN PLACEMENT DEPENDING ON MODEL. THE CMC IS
FASTEST WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE OVER NY AND PA BY 12Z WED. THE
EURO IS THE SLOWEST WITH HARDLY ANY PRECIP OR MOISTURE REACHING
NE PA OR C NY BY 12Z WED. THE GFS AND NAM ARE IN BTWN. SO I HAVE
BROADENED POPS ACRS CWA TUE NGT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTIES
AND LEAVE THEM IN THE SLGHT CHC TO CHC RANGE.
FOR WEDNESDAY...MODELS AGAIN VARY ON HOW QUICKLY THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW MOVES TO THE EAST BUT ALL INDICATE PRECIP OVER NY AND PA SO
HAVE LIKELY POPS...ESP BY WED AFTERNOON. GFS AND NAM INDICATE SOME
INSTABILITY AS WELL AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT ABV THE WARM AND
FAIRLY MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE. SO WE CONTINUE MENTION OF SOME
TSRA FOR WED IN GRIDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
315 PM EDT UPDATE...
FOLLOWED CLOSELY TO WPC GUIDANCE AND MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD CONTINUES TO LOOK
UNSETTLED. THE PORTENT UPPR LVL LOW THAT IS STARTING TO DIG SOUTH
ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE ROCKIES WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTH
AND AMPLIFY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST
AND BECOME CLOSED IN NATURE BY TUESDAY EVENING. THIS LOW WILL BE
THE CULPRIT FOR THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING INTO THE REGION IN ITS WAKE
SATURDAY MORNING RESULTING IN THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THUS KEEP AT LEAST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH
THE WHOLE PERIOD.
TEMPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME WILL BE AT OR ABOVE THE SEASONAL
NORM.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR WILL BRING MVFR CIGS TO MOST TERMINALS
THIS MORNING OUTSIDE OF KSYR. CIGS WILL GENERALLY BE 2KT OR
GREATER, BUT SOME LOW END MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT THE ELEVATED SITES
OF KITH AND KBGM.
MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING.
AFTER THAT TIME SOME QUESTION DOES EXIST IN TERMS OF WHETHER OR
NOT THIS DECK WILL RAISE TO VFR OR NOT. MODEL GUIDANCE WOULD
SUGGEST MVFR CIGS ALL DAY. GIVEN GOOD MODEL CONSISTENCY I WENT
WITH A MORE PESSIMISTIC SOLUTION OF ALL DAY MVFR CIGS. SOME MODEL
SOUNDINGS DO SUGGEST WE MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH THE AFTERNOON PERIOD BEING A CLIMATOLOGICALLY
FAVORED TIME FOR VFR I INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP TO SHOW A CHANCE
AT SOME SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT. WHATEVER HAPPENS THIS AFTERNOON, ALL
GUIDANCE POINTS TO LOWERING CIGS AGAIN TONIGHT. MVFR CIGS ARE
LIKELY OUTSIDE OF KSYR, WITH A REAL SHOT AT IFR CIGS ESPECIALLY ON
THE HILLTOP SITES.
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 KTS THIS MORNING INCREASING TO AROUND
10 KTS BY LATE MORNING. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS TONIGHT 5 TO 10
KTS.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...DEEP SRLY FLOW AHEAD OF CNTRL U.S. TROF...RESULTING IN
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS DUE TO CIGS/SHRA/BR.
TUE NGT TO THURS...STEADY RAIN...RESULTING IN MVFR...AND POSSIBLY
IFR CONDITIONS.
FRIDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN/DJP
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...HEDEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1150 PM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014
RAIN AREA IS MOVING EAST BUT OVERALL INTENSITY IS DIMINISHING.
USING RAP/HRRR/NAM12 BACKEDGE OF THE RAIN INTO GRAND FORKS NR
09Z...FARGO BY 11Z AND BEMIDJI 15Z OR SO. VFR STRATOCU DECK CLEARS
OUT FARILY QUICK BEHIND THE RAIN LEAVING CIRRUS BEHIND IT. TRUE
CLEARING BOTTNEAU-GARRISON MOVING EAST. RAP 300 MB RH SHOWS HIGH
CLOUD CLEARING INTO THE RRV MID-LATE MORNING MONDAY. SOME CONCERN
WITH FOG BUT UNCERTAIN IF LIGHT OR WIDESPREAD LOWER VSBYS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014
MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WILL BE PCPN CHANCES
TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY AND THEN DEGREE OF WARMUP INTO MID WEEK. AS
OF MID AFTERNOON ECHOES WERE DEVELOPING A LITTLE BIT MORE ACROSS
THE SW FA BUT OVERALL NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE YET. STILL SEEING SUN
ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN FA WHERE TEMPS HAD RISEN INTO THE LOW 60S.
MORE CLOUDS ACROSS THE WEST WITH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
MODELS STILL GOING BACK AND FORTH WITH WHERE THE MAIN RAIN BAND
WILL SET UP TONIGHT BUT THE OVERALL TREND IS FOR LESS PCPN AND A
WEAKER SYSTEM. THINK THE BAND WILL INITIALLY SET UP ALONG A KJMS
TO KGFK TO KROX LINE AND SLOWLY SHIFT MORE TO A KFAR TO KBDE LINE
THRU THE EVENING. BY MIDNIGHT IT SHOULD SHIFT MORE INTO THE MN
SIDE OF THE FA. CLEARING TRENDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM
WORKING INTO THE KDVL REGION LATE WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. IF
CLEARING MOVES IN SOONER AND WINDS STAY ON THE LIGHT SIDE TEMPS
MAY DROP MORE THAN EXPECTED. LEFT SOME LINGERING PCPN CHANCES ON
THE MN SIDE OF THE FA ON MONDAY MORNING BUT PCPN MAY SLIP OFF TO
THE EAST QUICKER. LOOKING AT A PRETTY NICE DAY OVERALL MONDAY WITH
QUITE A BIT OF SUN AND TEMPS SIMILAR OR A LITTLE WARMER THAN
TODAY. LIGHT WINDS/CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE INTO MON NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014
RETURN SOUTH FLOW GETS GOING ON TUE AS 850MB TEMPS RISE TO 6C TO
8C ACROSS THE FA. FLOW STILL PRETTY WEAK THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY
AND WITH THE COOL START WILL KEEP TUE HIGHS SIMILAR TO MONDAYS.
850MB TEMPS RISE TO A GOOD 16C OR SO BY 00Z THU WITH GUSTY SOUTH
WINDS. STILL NOT A FAVORABLE DIRECTION FOR REALLY GOOD WARMING BUT
DID RAISE TEMPS A LITTLE MORE FROM WHAT THEY WERE.
FOR THE WED NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY TIME FRAME...TEMPS WILL START
OUT WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND COOL BELOW NORMAL BY NEXT FRIDAY. IT
SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SOME LOWER CHANCES
FOR RAIN SHOWERS THU NIGHT INTO FRI...PERHAPS MIXING WITH SOME
LIGHT SNOW BY FRI NIGHT IN THE NORTHEAST FA. THERE ARE NO BIG
STORMS ON THE HORIZON THOUGH...WITH THE RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER
PATTERN CONTINUING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014
AS RAIN ENDS IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND SKIES CLEAR SOMEWHAT
OVERNIGHT-MONDAY MORNING COULD SEE A PERIOD OF FOG AND MVFR
CLOUDS. VERY UNCERTAIN OF COVERAGE OF THIS BUT PUT SOME IDEAS OF
THIS IN THE 06Z TAFS FOR TVF/GFK/FAR. RAIN ENDS IN BEMIDJI BY MID
MORNING. LIGHT WINDS TURNING NORTHWEST 10-15 KTS MONDAY.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/DK
AVIATION...RIDDLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
301 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014
.DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS FOCUSED ON RAIN ENDING AND STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS.
CURRENTLY... LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SHIFT
EASTWARD OUT OF CENTRAL OK. EXPECT PRECIP TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING... SLOWLY TAPERING OFF ACROSS THE OKC METRO THROUGH 4-
5 PM CDT. RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR APPEAR TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON
THE PRECIP TRENDS... SO LEFT A SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH THE LATE
EVENING... 7-10PM FOR LOCATIONS ALONG I-35 IN N CENTRAL OK. STRONG
NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST ACROSS WRN AND CENTRAL OK THROUGH
THE EVENING. THROUGH 300 PM CDT... SITES ACROSS WRN OK CONTINUE
TO REPORT GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH... WHERE CLEARING CONTINUES...
THUS RESULTING IN BETTER BL MIXING. WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY
THROUGH THE EVENING... RELAXING GRADUALLY AFTER SUNSET. NW WINDS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUE... PICKING UP THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING/AFTN WITH INCREASED MIXING DUE TO DAY TIME HEATING. NOT AS
WINDY AS TODAY... GUSTS TMRW WILL APPROACH 20 TO 30 MPH ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND ERN OK. WITH NW WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH
TUE... TEMPS WILL ONLY TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S ACROSS
OK... AND MID 70S IN WRN N TX.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK... INTO THE WEEKEND... RIDGING WILL
DEVELOP WED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. IN RESPONSE... SOUTH WINDS
WILL RETURN... RESULTING IN A GRADUAL WARM UP THROUGH SUN. NOT
RECORD WARMTH... BUT HIGHS WILL BE A 5-7 DEGREES ABOVE AVG... IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AT TIMES FROM WED-SUN.
LATE THIS WEEKEND... LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING HINTS OF ANOTHER
H500 SHORTWAVE... SO PRECIP CHANCES MAY RETURN LATE SUN-MON.
JTK
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 46 70 45 76 / 10 0 0 0
HOBART OK 45 73 45 78 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 47 75 47 80 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 41 72 41 78 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 47 70 42 72 / 20 0 0 0
DURANT OK 49 73 48 76 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ004>031-033>041-
044>046-050.
TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083>090.
&&
$$
11/04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND OR
904 PM PDT TUE OCT 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A STALLED FRONT HAS WEAKENED THIS EVENING AND IS NOW OVER
THE CASCADES. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL
PUSH TOWARD THE COAST TONIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH TOMORROW. THIS WILL
BRING INCREASED SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. THE HIGHER CASCADES MAY GET A LIGHT DUSTING
OF SNOW LATE TONIGHT. THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW IS ALSO EXPECTED TO
BRING A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS TO MUCH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING. THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION THURSDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT BRINGS ADDITIONAL RAIN FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. AFTER ANOTHER BREAK IN THE WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND...YET
ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.EVENING UPDATE...STEADY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A DEFORMATION
BAND AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINED
DRAPED OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST WASHINGTON AND SOUTHWEST OREGON INTO
THIS EVENING. THE BAND HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS AND PUSHED EAST INTO THE CASCADES. MEANWHILE...SHOWER
ACTIVITY HAS PICKED UP SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE SW PORTIONS OF THE FCST
AREA IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS EVENING AND
ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES. AN AREA OF
ENHANCED CLOUD TOPS AND QUITE A BIT OF LIGHTNING ACTIVITY IS APPARENT
OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS. THIS
INDICATES THAT THERE IS PRETTY GOOD LIFT IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM.
BASED ON THE OFFSHORE LIGHTNING...INCREASED THE THUNDER CHANCES OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS.
A DEVELOPING SURFACE TROUGH WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
THE REGION SIGNIFICANTLY OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING...RESULTING
IN A PERIOD OF VERY GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE INTERIOR
LOWLANDS. THE 00Z NAM CONTINUES THE TREND OF DEVELOPING THE TROUGH
INTO A CLOSED LOW OVERNIGHT. BASED ON A COMPARISON OF THE MODEL
SURFACE PRESSURE INITIALIZATION TO OBSERVATIONS...IT APPEARS THAT THE
SYSTEM IS NOT BEING HANDLED ALL THAT WELL AND MAY SET UP STRONGER AND
FURTHER SOUTHEAST THAN THE MODELS ARE INDICATING. BASED ON THE LATEST
TRENDS...DECIDED TO INCREASE THE FORECAST WIND SPEEDS A BIT. ALSO
DECIDED TO EXTEND THE EXISTING WIND ADVISORY TO INCLUDE THE SOUTHERN
WILLAMETTE VALLEY. PYLE
...PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION UNCHANGED...
.CURRENT THROUGH FRIDAY...RADAR SHOWS A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS STRETCHING FROM EUGENE TO MT ADAMS
AND MOVING NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. RAIN AND
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHEN IT BECOMES
REINFORCED BY THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVING INTO THE AREA. THE
TROUGH STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR A MENTION
OF THUNDER ALTHOUGH HAVE DECREASED TO SLIGHT CHANCE EVERYWHERE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SNOW LEVELS DROP TONIGHT TO 5000-6000 FT FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO SKI RESORTS COULD SEE A LITTLE BIT OF SNOW.
THE NAM IN PARTICULAR SHOWS A SMALL SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OFFSHORE
CENTRAL OREGON TONIGHT AND APPROACHING THE COAST EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING THEN MOVING NORTH. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
SIGNIFICANTLY DUE TO THE LOW AND SO WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP
EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH LINGERING GUSTS INTO THE AFTERNOON. ISSUED A
WIND ADVISORY FOR THE CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND
PORTLAND-VANCOUVER METRO AREA FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT IMPACTS WILL
BE SEEN FROM THE COAST TO THE CASCADES WITH 40 MPH GUSTS POSSIBLE.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR THE SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY TO
INCLUDE IT IN THE ADVISORY AT THIS POINT BUT WINDS THERE WILL LIKELY
STILL GUST TO 30-35 MPH DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE WEDNESDAY. AN SPS
HAS BEEN ISSUED REGARDING IMPACTS OUTSIDE OF THE ADVISORY AREA.
RIDGING TAKES OVER ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS AND AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT A MOSTLY DRY
THURSDAY AND IT LOOKS LIKE PARTICULARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL BE DRY FOR MOST INLAND AREAS WHILE LOWER RAIN CHANCES
REMAIN ALONG THE COAST.
THE NEXT FRONT ARRIVES OVERNIGHT THURSDAY WITH RAIN SPREADING INLAND
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT A SPLITTING OF
THE SYSTEM WITH THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA IN THE MIDDLE DRIER PORTION
BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN THIS SOLUTION. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT RAIN
CHANCES HIGH. BOWEN
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY AND BECOME MORE SHOWERY AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST.
THINGS WILL WARM UP A BIT AND CLEAR OUT SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THE NEXT FRONT LOOKS
TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON LATE SUNDAY OR EARLY MONDAY AND BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION THROUGH
THE END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. DETAILS AND IMPACTS WILL BE
NARROWED DOWN AS THE SYSTEMS BECOME MORE DEFINED. /64
&&
.AVIATION...MOST TERMINALS VFR AT THE MOMENT...THOUGH THIS WILL BE
CHANGING AS CONDITIONS DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHERN OREGON COAST WILL SPREAD RAIN BACK
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH CIGS/VSBYS GENERALLY
LOWERING INTO THE MVFR RANGE BY 10Z. AIR MASS WILL BE UNSTABLE
WITH A FEW TSTMS EXPECTED AROUND THE FCST AREA THROUGH WED
MORNING...MAINLY ALONG THE COAST. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE WEDNESDAY WITH MAINLY VFR CIGS BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...
THOUGH SOME MVFR/BRIEF IFR WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER RAIN
SHOWERS INTO WED AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE LATER
TONIGHT/EARLY WED WITH S WINDS GUSTING TO 35 KT BOTH COAST AND
INLAND...SLOWLY EASING DURING THE DAY WED.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...BAND OF RAIN KSLE-KTMK SOUTHWARD IS
APPROACHING KPDX METRO AREA...SHOULD ARRIVE 05Z-06Z. INITIALLY
CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE VFR...BUT EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR AS
RAIN INCREASES OVERNIGHT/EARLY WED MORNING. EXPECT E-SE WINDS TO
SHARPLY SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY AROUND 13Z...INCREASING TO 20-25 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. THESE WINDS SHOULD SLOWLY EASE WED...WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR WITH SCT SHRA BY MIDDAY. WEAGLE
&&
.MARINE...THE MAIN FOCUS OF THIS SHIFT HAS BEEN A POORLY MODELED
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STRENGTHENING JUST OFFSHORE FROM THE OR/CA
BORDER. THE 00Z HRRR MODEL SEEMS TO HAVE A MUCH BETTER HANDLE ON
THIS SYSTEM THAN OTHER MODELS...SO LEANED HEAVILY ON THE 00Z HRRR
IN FORECASTING WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES UP
THE OREGON COAST. THIS MODEL SHOWS S WINDS GUSTING TO 35-45 KT
SPREADING UP THE COAST OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WED...PERHAPS A BIT
OVERDONE BUT STILL WARRANTED A GALE WARNING FOR OUR SOUTHERN
WATERS AND NORTHERN INNER WATERS IN OUR VIEW. THE AIR MASS IS
RATHER UNSTABLE...SO A COASTAL JET IS UNLIKELY TO DEVELOP WITH
THIS SYSTEM...BUT THE TRADE-OFF WILL BE SQUALLY GUSTS UP TO
35-45 KT FROM HEAVIER SHOWERS AND TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM.
WINDS WILL SHIFT SW AND EASE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WED. HOWEVER W-NW
SWELL WILL BE INCREASING FROM A WELL-ENTRENCHED BROAD PARENT LOW
DOMINATING THE GULF OF ALASKA AND NE PACIFIC. W-NW SWELL 12-15 FT
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO OCCASIONALLY
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ROTATING AROUND THIS BROADER UPPER LOW.
WINDS INCREASE AGAIN THU AHEAD OF A STRONGER LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOPING LATE THU OR FRI AND MOVING N TOWARDS SOUTHERN B.C.
RESULTING IN A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING THE COASTAL
WATERS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN SPECIFIC DETAILS OF THE SYSTEM IS
GRADUALLY IMPROVING WITH AT LEAST GALE GUSTS APPEARING
INCREASINGLY LIKELY. THAT SAID...SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AND WILL
CONTINUE TO EVALUATE MODEL GUIDANCE IN THE COMING DAYS AS THE
TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF THE LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL GREATLY INFLUENCE
POTENTIAL IMPACTS. WEAGLE/CULLEN
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 11 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR CENTRAL
WILLAMETTE VALLEY-GREATER PORTLAND METRO AREA-SOUTH
WILLAMETTE VALLEY.
WA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 11 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR GREATER
VANCOUVER AREA.
PZ...GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL
WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 10 NM.
GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM TONIGHT TO 5 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 AM TO 5 PM PDT WEDNESDAY
FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM
10 TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM PDT
THURSDAY FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
FROM 10 TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 3 PM
PDT WEDNESDAY.
&&
$$
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND OR
915 AM PDT MON OCT 13 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A FLAT UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND
NORTHWEST OREGON EARLY TODAY. A FAIRLY STRONG AND WET COLD FRONT WILL
THEN START TO SPREAD ONTO THE COAST AND INTO THE COAST RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE INLAND AREAS LATE TODAY AND
ESPECIALLY TONIGHT...STALLING OVER SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST
OREGON TUESDAY. A SHORTWAVE WILL SWING AROUND THE COOL PARENT
OFFSHORE UPPER TROUGH AND HELPS MOVE THE FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH
THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF RAIN OR SHOWERS. AFTER SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION LINGERS ON
THURSDAY...ANOTHER FAIRLY STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.UPDATE... EASTERN EDGE OF A COLD FRONT LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE
LOCAL MARINE AREA WITH RAIN STILL ABOUT 150 NM OFFSHORE BASED ON THE
LANGLEY HILL RADAR. HOWEVER THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHTER RAIN CLOSER TO
THE OREGON COAST. HRRR SHOWS RAIN ARRIVING AT THE N OR/S WA COAST IN
THE EARLY AFTERNOON WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE. DELAYED HIGH POPS
SLIGHTLY FROM THE GORGE SOUTH ACROSS THE CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS DUE
TO SLOWER TRACKING OF THE SYSTEM. DON`T EXPECT IT TO SPEED UP WITH
UPPER FLOW NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE FRONT. ALSO MADE SOME CHANGES TO
SKY COVER TO REFLECT THE PERCEPTION OF A RATHER SUNNY DAY DESPITE THE
SKY TECHNICALLY BEING MOSTLY COVERED WITH THIN HIGH CLOUDS. BOWEN
.SHORT TERM (PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER
RADAR IS RATHER QUIET EARLY THIS MORNING AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
HAS DECREASED ANY LEFTOVER SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE RIDGE IS A BIT DIRTY
WITH SOME HIGHER CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS MAINLY AREAS NORTH OF ABOUT THE
COLUMBIA RIVER. OTHERWISE SKIES ARE ON THE CLEAR SIDE. HOWEVER...WITH
FAIRLY NARROW TEMPERATURE DEWPOINT SPREADS...EXPECT AREAS OF MORNING
LOW ELEVATIONS FOG TO DEVELOP.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE RATHER IMPRESSIVE MOIST FRONT APPROACHING
130W EARLY THIS MORNING. THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
BRINGING SOME RAIN INTO THE COAST AND COAST RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON...AND INTO THE THE REMAINDER OF THE INLAND AREAS LATE TODAY
BUT MAINLY THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. THE FRONT BECOMES PARALLEL TO
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW...SO THIS SLOWS ITS MOVEMENT THROUGH OUR
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...WITH THE FRONT STALLING OVER THE
AREA TUESDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE UP AROUND 1.25
INCHES...SO THIS SHOULD BRING A FINAL END TO THE FIRE WEATHER SEASON.
THE MODELS DO INDICATE THE PRECIPITATION IN THE FRONTAL BAND MAY LET
UP SOME TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...AFTER THAT...THERE IS A SHORT WAVE THAT SWINGS AROUND THE
BASE OF THE OFFSHORE ASSOCIATED COOL UPPER TROUGH AND THEN MOVES
NORTHEAST THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS
SHOULD BRING ANOTHER SURGE OF RAIN OR SHOWERS AS IT MOVES THROUGH.
THE MODELS SHOW SOME INSTABILITY AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH...SO
WE HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE COASTAL WATERS AND
ALONG THE COAST LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT SPREADING INLAND
WEDNESDAY MORNING. SNOW LEVELS WILL ALSO BE LOWERING DOWN TO NEAR
5000 FEET TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND WE SHOULD SEE SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOW UP IN THE CASCADES. TOLLESON
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...AS THE MAIN SHORT WAVE
SWINGS INLAND ON WEDNESDAY...THE ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES
INLAND AS WELL WITH DECREASING SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
THE NEXT STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS THEN EXPECTED TO BRING MORE
RAIN AND COASTAL BREEZES TO OUR AREA FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN THE WEATHER AGAIN SUNDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK. TOLLESON
&&
.AVIATION...HIGH PRES WITH DRY VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH VARIABLE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS.
THE MAIN EXCEPTION THIS MORNING IS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY WHERE OVERNIGHT CLEAR SKIES HAVE ENABLED
RADIATIONAL FOG TO FORM. OBSERVATIONS AND CAMERAS SUGGEST A
RELATIVELY THIN LAYER OF FOG/LOW CLOUDS THAT WILL LIKELY
DISSIPATE BY 17Z. MEANWHILE...AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL REACH
THE COAST BY THIS AFTERNOON AND PUSH INLAND TO THE INTERIOR TAF
SITES IN THE EVENING. EXPECT A REDUCTION TO MVFR AND RAIN
BEGINNING ALONG THE COAST LATER THIS MORNING...WITH IFR CIGS
POSSIBLE AS FRONT ADVANCES. GUSTY S WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG
THE COAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FOR THE INLAND AREAS...VFR AFTER
ANY FOG THAT DEVELOP CLEARS THIS MORNING. INCREASING CLOUDS WITH
RAIN DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON. MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATER IN THE EVENING.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR WITH PATCHY IFR FOG IN THE AREA THIS
MORNING. RAIN ACCOMPANYING A FRONT WILL LIKELY ARRIVE AFTER 00Z
TUESDAY WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
AFTER 06Z TUESDAY. CULLEN
&&
.MARINE...SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY AHEAD
OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER...THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING GALE GUSTS ACROSS THE WATERS NORTH OF
CASCADE HEAD DURING THE SAME TIME PERIOD AND A WEAK JET MAY
ENHANCE WINDS A LITTLE MORE WITHIN 20 NM OF THE COAST FROM THE
COLUMBIA RIVER MOUTH AND POINTS NORTHWARD.
ANOTHER WEAK FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN FORECAST
MODELS IN TERMS OF STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF THIS...BUT THEY GENERALLY
SUPPORT ADVISORY STRENGTH WINDS. HOWEVER GIVEN THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE LOW PRES CENTER
TRACKS A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE WATERS AND PRODUCES SOME LOW END
GALE GUSTS OVER THE WATERS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
A STRONGER LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP LATE THU OR FRI AND MOVE N
TOWARDS SOUTHERN B.C. AND WOULD RESULT IN A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS. THIS WOULD RESULT IN A STRONG
FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS DURING THE PERIOD...WITH THE
CAPABILITY TO PRODUCE GALES ACROSS ALL WATERS...AND COASTAL JET
DEVELOPMENT COULD CERTAINLY ENHANCE WINDS WITHIN 20 NM OF THE
COAST. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN SPECIFIC DETAILS OF THE SYSTEM
REMAINS LOW AND WILL CONTINUE TO EVALUATE MODEL GUIDANCE IN THE
COMING DAYS AS THE TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF THE LOW PRES WILL
GREATLY INFLUENCE POTENTIAL IMPACTS.
OTHERWISE...COMBINED SEAS WILL ALTERNATE BETWEEN AROUND 9-10 FT
IN BETWEEN FRONTAL SYSTEMS AND BUILDING INTO THE 11 TO 15 FT RANGE
AS SWELLS ARRIVE. HOWEVER...ANY EXTENDED PERIODS OF GALES WILL BE
MORE LIKELY TO PUSH SEAS CLOSER TO 20 FT...THOUGH CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOWER AS THE DETAILS OF THE WED AND FRI LOW PRES SYSTEMS
ARE YET TO BE DETERMINED. CULLEN
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM
10 TO 60 NM.
GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING
FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD
OR OUT 10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM
PDT THIS EVENING FOR WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE
OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM PDT TUESDAY
FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT
60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO
FLORENCE OR OUT 10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 11 PM
PDT THIS EVENING.
&&
$$
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1145 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEK. A PRECEDING PLUME OF DEEP
GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL BRING A SOAKING RAIN TO
ALL OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA WEDNESDAY. COOLER AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
EXAMINATION OF SATL-DERIVED PWAT LOOP AND LATEST RAP OUTPUT SHOWS
A PLUME OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE THE CENTRAL PA THIS
EVENING...PRODUCING A BIT OF LGT RAIN/DRIZZLE WHERE FLOW ASCENDS
THE CENTRAL MTNS. HAVE ADJUSTED LATE EVENING POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS AND REMOVE MENTION OF PRECIP ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY.
MAIN FOCUS REMAINS WITH UPPER LOW AND ASSOC LL JET OVR THE OHIO
VALLEY WITH IT/S PLUME OF GULF OF MEX MOISTURE. LATEST MDL DATA
CONTINUES TO INDICATE RAIN ASSOC WITH ANOMALOUS LL JET/PWATS WILL
OVERSPREAD THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU AND CENTRAL MTNS LATE TONIGHT.
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND LOCAL UPSLOPE INTO THE LAURELS AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL MAKE FOR INCREASING POPS OVR THE W COUNTIES
AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH NR 100 POPS BY DAWN...AS THE RIBBON OF HIGHLY
ABOVE NORMAL PW REACHES THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU. SOUTHERLY WIND
GUSTS COULD EXCEED 30 MPH OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF
WESTERN PA.
ARRIVAL OF COLD FRONT ARND DAWN MAY RESULT IN LOWS IN THE U50S
ACROSS THE W MTNS BY 12Z. OTHERWISE...PREFRONTAL DWPTS SUGGEST
TEMPS WILL GO NO LOWER THAN THE 60S OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
IMPRESSIVE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING THE PASSAGE OF THE
SLOW EASTWARD MOVING FRONTAL ZONE...COMPLICATED BY A SFC WAVE
LIFTING NORTHWARD ALONG IT...WILL BE THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FOCUS
ON WEDNESDAY. DESPITE WEAKENING BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS...THE SYSTEM
WILL PACK A PUNCH THROUGHOUT CENTRAL PA...AND WILL PRODUCE
MARGINAL CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS AND A 3 TO 6 HOUR PERIOD OF
CONVECTIVE RAINFALL IN MOST AREAS. AS ALWAYS...WITH SUCH STRONG
SPEED SHEAR...LOW LCLS AND THE PRESENCE OF WEAK TO MODERATE CAPE
ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW
STRONGER BOWING OR ROTATING CELLS ALONG THE LARGER CONVECTIVE
LINE. WE REMAIN IN SEE TEXT AREA FROM SPC WED AFTN.
THE MAIN THREAT WEDNESDAY WILL BE SOAKING RAINFALL ALONG THE SLOW
MOVING BOUNDARY. LATEST MDL BLENDED QPF RANGES FROM CLOSE TO AN
INCH ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY...TO ARND 2 INCHES OVR THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS. HOWEVER...CONVECTION WILL LIKELY LEAD TO LOCALIZED
HIGHER AMTS. 12Z CONVECTION ALLOWING MDL RUNS SHOW THE POTENTIAL
OF LOCAL 3"+ AMOUNTS...WHICH COME IN ON THE LOWER END OF 3-HR AND
6-HR FFG GUIDANCE. IN GENERAL...EXPECT A BENEFICIAL RAINFALL
RATHER THAN A FLOOD THREAT GIVEN OUR RECENT DRY SPELL. HEAVIEST
RAINFALL OVER EASTERN AREAS MAY NOT BE DONE BY LATE
AFTERNOON...BUT DRIER AIR WILL SWEEP INTO WESTERN AREAS BY MID
AFTERNOON WITH A FAIRLY SHARP CUTOFF EXPECTED TO THE HIGHER
INTENSITY RAINFALL. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BUFFET
THE RIDGE TOPS...AND LOCATIONS NORTH OF RIDGE GAPS. MAX TEMPS WILL
LKLY RANGE FROM THE LOW 60S OVR THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU TO THE
L/M70S ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BROAD AND DEEP/CLOSED H5 CYCLONE CENTERED INVOF THE OH/IN/KY
BORDER AT 16/0000Z WILL PIVOT SLOWLY ENEWD INTO W-CNTRL PA BY
17/0000Z. BY THIS TIME A KICKER SYSTEM CROSSING THE NRN PLAINS AND
UPPER MIDWEST WILL FORCE THE AMPLIFIED EASTERN U.S. SYSTEM INTO A
PROCESS OF OPENING/WEAKENING INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND BY EARLY FRIDAY.
THIS PROCESS APPEARS TO BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE NRN KICKER SYSTEM
ENERGY IS ABSORBED AND FEEDS INTO THE ERN CONUS MEAN TROUGH. WHAT
ULTIMATELY HAPPENS WITH THIS ENERGY REMAINS UNDECIDED FROM A MODEL
PERSPECTIVE AS THE SUBTLE SHORTWAVE DIFFS WILL LKLY IMPACT THE
SHARPNESS OF THE TROUGH ALONG WITH THE PROGRESSION OF EMBEDDED SFC
FRONTS. TAKEN AS A WHOLE...THE INCORPORATION OF THE UPSTREAM
ENERGY SHOULD ALLOW THE TROUGH TO RELOAD OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AND NORTHEAST STATES INTO THE WEEKEND. ENSEMBLE
MEANS AND TELECONNECTIONS FAVOR PERSISTENT ERN CONUS TROUGHING
INTO NEXT WEEK.
HVY RAIN THREAT SHOULD SHIFT EWD OUT OF THE CWA WED NGT ALONG WITH
THE STG SLY LLJ AND AXIS OF ANOMALOUS MSTR/PWS. HOWEVER EXPECT
WEATHER CONDITIONS TO REMAIN UNSETTLED AND `SHOWERY` ON THURS AS
THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH LIFTS NEWD ACROSS THE AREA. BROAD CYCLONIC
FLOW WILL KEEP THE CHC OF SHOWERS IN THE FCST ALONG THE ALLEGHENY
FRONT/NW PLATEAU HOWEVER PCPN LOOKS TO BE VERY LGT/SPOTTY OVER
THESE AREAS FRI. FRONTAL PASSAGE EMBEDDED WITHIN BROAD CYC FLOW
ALOFT SHOULD OCCUR AROUND SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A CHUNK OF SUB-
ZERO AIR AT 850MB SAT NGT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THIS MAY SUPPORT SOME
SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE FAVORED HIGH ELEVATIONS/UPSLOPE AREAS ALONG
THE WRN RIDGES AND DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE. HP SHOULD PROVIDE MAINLY
DRY WEATHER SUN INTO MON.
ONE OR MORE REINFORCING SFC FRONTAL PASSAGES ALONG WITH MEAN
TROUGHING SHOULD SUPPORT SEASONABLY COOL...NEAR-TO-BELOW AVG
TEMPERATURES DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
WED NGT LOW TEMPS WHICH WILL STILL BE RELATIVELY MILD BY MID OCT
STANDARDS.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RAIN SHIELD CONTINUES TO MAKING SLOW EASTWARD ADVANCE ACROSS
CENTRAL PA...WITH ASSOCIATED MVFR CIGS NOW AT ALL AIRFIELDS
WIDESPREAD MVFR AND OCCASIONALL IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BREEZY AT THE SURFACE AS 850MB FLOW
APPROACHES 50KTS...CONTINUING THIS PROLONGED PERIOD OF LLWS.
A STRONG FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH WED EVE.
STRONG FLOW WILL KEEP WINDS GUSTY AND LLWS ONGOING. WIDESPREAD
REDUCTIONS WILL ALSO PERSIST WITH OTHER IMPACTS BEING AN APPROX
12HR PERIOD OF RAIN AND POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS /IN THE WEST DURING
THE DAY WED AND IN THE EAST WED AFT AND EVE/.
OUTLOOK...
WED...COLD FRONT. WIDESPREAD REDUCTIONS. PERIODS OF RAIN AND
SCATTERED TSTMS. LLWS. BREEZY.
THU...SCT SHOWERS WITH RESTRICTIONS LIKELY. IMPROVING LATE.
LIGHTER WINDS.
FRI...MAINLY VFR.
SAT-SUN...MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT MVFR CIGS AND CHC SHRA/SHSN
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...GARTNER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1007 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEK. A PRECEDING PLUME OF DEEP
GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL BRING A SOAKING RAIN TO
ALL OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA WEDNESDAY. COOLER AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
EXAMINATION OF SATL-DERIVED PWAT LOOP AND LATEST RAP OUTPUT SHOWS
A PLUME OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE THE CENTRAL PA THIS
EVENING...PRODUCING A BIT OF LGT RAIN/DRIZZLE WHERE FLOW ASCENDS
THE CENTRAL MTNS. HAVE ADJUSTED LATE EVENING POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS AND REMOVE MENTION OF PRECIP ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY.
MAIN FOCUS REMAINS WITH UPPER LOW AND ASSOC LL JET OVR THE OHIO
VALLEY WITH IT/S PLUME OF GULF OF MEX MOISTURE. LATEST MDL DATA
CONTINUES TO INDICATE RAIN ASSOC WITH ANOMALOUS LL JET/PWATS WILL
OVERSPREAD THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU AND CENTRAL MTNS LATE TONIGHT.
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND LOCAL UPSLOPE INTO THE LAURELS AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL MAKE FOR INCREASING POPS OVR THE W COUNTIES
AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH NR 100 POPS BY DAWN...AS THE RIBBON OF HIGHLY
ABOVE NORMAL PW REACHES THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU. SOUTHERLY WIND
GUSTS COULD EXCEED 30 MPH OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF
WESTERN PA.
ARRIVAL OF COLD FRONT ARND DAWN MAY RESULT IN LOWS IN THE U50S
ACROSS THE W MTNS BY 12Z. OTHERWISE...PREFRONTAL DWPTS SUGGEST
TEMPS WILL GO NO LOWER THAN THE 60S OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
IMPRESSIVE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING THE PASSAGE OF THE
SLOW EASTWARD MOVING FRONTAL ZONE...COMPLICATED BY A SFC WAVE
LIFTING NORTHWARD ALONG IT...WILL BE THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FOCUS
ON WEDNESDAY. DESPITE WEAKENING BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS...THE SYSTEM
WILL PACK A PUNCH THROUGHOUT CENTRAL PA...AND WILL PRODUCE
MARGINAL CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS AND A 3 TO 6 HOUR PERIOD OF
CONVECTIVE RAINFALL IN MOST AREAS. AS ALWAYS...WITH SUCH STRONG
SPEED SHEAR...LOW LCLS AND THE PRESENCE OF WEAK TO MODERATE CAPE
ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW
STRONGER BOWING OR ROTATING CELLS ALONG THE LARGER CONVECTIVE
LINE. WE REMAIN IN SEE TEXT AREA FROM SPC WED AFTN.
THE MAIN THREAT WEDNESDAY WILL BE SOAKING RAINFALL ALONG THE SLOW
MOVING BOUNDARY. LATEST MDL BLENDED QPF RANGES FROM CLOSE TO AN
INCH ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY...TO ARND 2 INCHES OVR THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS. HOWEVER...CONVECTION WILL LIKELY LEAD TO LOCALIZED
HIGHER AMTS. 12Z CONVECTION ALLOWING MDL RUNS SHOW THE POTENTIAL
OF LOCAL 3"+ AMOUNTS...WHICH COME IN ON THE LOWER END OF 3-HR AND
6-HR FFG GUIDANCE. IN GENERAL...EXPECT A BENEFICIAL RAINFALL
RATHER THAN A FLOOD THREAT GIVEN OUR RECENT DRY SPELL. HEAVIEST
RAINFALL OVER EASTERN AREAS MAY NOT BE DONE BY LATE
AFTERNOON...BUT DRIER AIR WILL SWEEP INTO WESTERN AREAS BY MID
AFTERNOON WITH A FAIRLY SHARP CUTOFF EXPECTED TO THE HIGHER
INTENSITY RAINFALL. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BUFFET
THE RIDGE TOPS...AND LOCATIONS NORTH OF RIDGE GAPS. MAX TEMPS WILL
LKLY RANGE FROM THE LOW 60S OVR THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU TO THE
L/M70S ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BROAD AND DEEP/CLOSED H5 CYCLONE CENTERED INVOF THE OH/IN/KY
BORDER AT 16/0000Z WILL PIVOT SLOWLY ENEWD INTO W-CNTRL PA BY
17/0000Z. BY THIS TIME A KICKER SYSTEM CROSSING THE NRN PLAINS AND
UPPER MIDWEST WILL FORCE THE AMPLIFIED EASTERN U.S. SYSTEM INTO A
PROCESS OF OPENING/WEAKENING INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND BY EARLY FRIDAY.
THIS PROCESS APPEARS TO BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE NRN KICKER SYSTEM
ENERGY IS ABSORBED AND FEEDS INTO THE ERN CONUS MEAN TROUGH. WHAT
ULTIMATELY HAPPENS WITH THIS ENERGY REMAINS UNDECIDED FROM A MODEL
PERSPECTIVE AS THE SUBTLE SHORTWAVE DIFFS WILL LKLY IMPACT THE
SHARPNESS OF THE TROUGH ALONG WITH THE PROGRESSION OF EMBEDDED SFC
FRONTS. TAKEN AS A WHOLE...THE INCORPORATION OF THE UPSTREAM
ENERGY SHOULD ALLOW THE TROUGH TO RELOAD OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AND NORTHEAST STATES INTO THE WEEKEND. ENSEMBLE
MEANS AND TELECONNECTIONS FAVOR PERSISTENT ERN CONUS TROUGHING
INTO NEXT WEEK.
HVY RAIN THREAT SHOULD SHIFT EWD OUT OF THE CWA WED NGT ALONG WITH
THE STG SLY LLJ AND AXIS OF ANOMALOUS MSTR/PWS. HOWEVER EXPECT
WEATHER CONDITIONS TO REMAIN UNSETTLED AND `SHOWERY` ON THURS AS
THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH LIFTS NEWD ACROSS THE AREA. BROAD CYCLONIC
FLOW WILL KEEP THE CHC OF SHOWERS IN THE FCST ALONG THE ALLEGHENY
FRONT/NW PLATEAU HOWEVER PCPN LOOKS TO BE VERY LGT/SPOTTY OVER
THESE AREAS FRI. FRONTAL PASSAGE EMBEDDED WITHIN BROAD CYC FLOW
ALOFT SHOULD OCCUR AROUND SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A CHUNK OF SUB-
ZERO AIR AT 850MB SAT NGT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THIS MAY SUPPORT SOME
SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE FAVORED HIGH ELEVATIONS/UPSLOPE AREAS ALONG
THE WRN RIDGES AND DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE. HP SHOULD PROVIDE MAINLY
DRY WEATHER SUN INTO MON.
ONE OR MORE REINFORCING SFC FRONTAL PASSAGES ALONG WITH MEAN
TROUGHING SHOULD SUPPORT SEASONABLY COOL...NEAR-TO-BELOW AVG
TEMPERATURES DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
WED NGT LOW TEMPS WHICH WILL STILL BE RELATIVELY MILD BY MID OCT
STANDARDS.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAKING SLOW BUT STEADY PROGRESS ACROSS CENTRAL
PA OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS NOW AT ALL
TAFS SITES...SAVE FOR KLNS...AND WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH
LOWERED CONDS OVER THE WEST.
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BREEZY AT THE SURFACE AS 850MB FLOW
APPROACHES 50KTS...CONTINUING THIS PROLONGED PERIOD OF LLWS.
THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH A STRONG FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION LATE TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED EVE. STRONG FLOW WILL KEEP
WINDS GUSTY AND LLWS ONGOING. WIDESPREAD REDUCTIONS WILL ALSO
PERSIST WITH OTHER IMPACTS BEING AN APPROX 12HR PERIOD OF RAIN AND
POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS /IN THE WEST DURING THE DAY WED AND IN THE
EAST WED AFT AND EVE/.
OUTLOOK...
WED...COLD FRONT. WIDESPREAD REDUCTIONS. PERIODS OF RAIN AND
SCATTERED TSTMS. LLWS. BREEZY.
THU...SCT SHOWERS WITH RESTRICTIONS LIKELY. IMPROVING LATE.
LIGHTER WINDS.
FRI...MAINLY VFR.
SAT-SUN...MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT MVFR CIGS AND CHC SHRA/SHSN
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...DEVOIR/GARTNER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
924 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEK. A PRECEDING PLUME OF DEEP
GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL BRING A SOAKING RAIN TO
ALL OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
COOLER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
EXAMINATION OF SATL-DERIVED PWAT LOOP AND LATEST RAP OUTPUT SHOWS
A PLUME OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE THE CENTRAL PA THIS
EVENING...PRODUCING A BIT OF LGT RAIN/DRIZZLE WHERE FLOW ASCENDS
THE CENTRAL MTNS. HAVE ADJUSTED EVENING POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
AND REMOVE MENTION OF PRECIP ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY.
MAIN FOCUS REMAINS WITH UPPER LOW AND ASSOC LL JET OVR THE OHIO
VALLEY WITH IT/S PLUME OF GULF OF MEX MOISTURE. LATEST MDL DATA
CONTINUES TO INDICATE RAIN ASSOC WITH ANOMALOUS LL JET/PWATS WILL
OVERSPREAD THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU AND CENTRAL MTNS LATE TONIGHT.
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND LOCAL UPSLOPE INTO THE LAURELS AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL MAKE FOR INCREASING POPS OVR THE W COUNTIES
AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH NR 100 POPS BY DAWN...AS THE RIBBON OF HIGHLY
ABOVE NORMAL PW REACHES THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU. SOUTHERLY WIND
GUSTS COULD EXCEED 30 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT OVR THE HIGH TERRAIN OF
WESTERN PA.
GIVEN CURRENT DWPTS AND CONTINUED MOISTURE ADVECTION
OVERNIGHT...DON/T SEE ANY AREAS DROPPING BLW 60F TONIGHT...AND
THE SUSQ VALLEY IS LIKELY TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE M/U60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
IMPRESSIVE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING THE PASSAGE OF THE
SLOW EASTWARD MOVING FRONTAL ZONE...COMPLICATED BY A SFC WAVE
LIFTING NORTHWARD ALONG IT...WILL BE THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FOCUS
ON WEDNESDAY. DESPITE WEAKENING BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS...THE SYSTEM
WILL PACK A PUNCH THROUGHOUT CENTRAL PA...AND WILL PRODUCE
MARGINAL CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS AND A 3 TO 6 HOUR PERIOD OF
CONVECTIVE RAINFALL IN MOST AREAS. AS ALWAYS...WITH SUCH STRONG
SPEED SHEAR...LOW LCLS AND THE PRESENCE OF WEAK TO MODERATE CAPE
ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW
STRONGER BOWING OR ROTATING CELLS ALONG THE LARGER CONVECTIVE
LINE. WE REMAIN IN SEE TEXT AREA FROM SPC WED AFTN.
THE MAIN THREAT WEDNESDAY WILL BE SOAKING RAINFALL ALONG THE SLOW
MOVING BOUNDARY. LATEST MDL BLENDED QPF RANGES FROM CLOSE TO AN
INCH ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY...TO ARND 2 INCHES OVR THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS. HOWEVER...CONVECTION WILL LIKELY LEAD TO LOCALIZED
HIGHER AMTS. 12Z CONVECTION ALLOWING MDL RUNS SHOW THE POTENTIAL
OF LOCAL 3"+ AMOUNTS...WHICH COME IN ON THE LOWER END OF 3-HR AND
6-HR FFG GUIDANCE. IN GENERAL...EXPECT A BENEFICIAL RAINFALL
RATHER THAN A FLOOD THREAT GIVEN OUR RECENT DRY SPELL. HEAVIEST
RAINFALL OVER EASTERN AREAS MAY NOT BE DONE BY LATE
AFTERNOON...BUT DRIER AIR WILL SWEEP INTO WESTERN AREAS BY MID
AFTERNOON WITH A FAIRLY SHARP CUTOFF EXPECTED TO THE HIGHER
INTENSITY RAINFALL. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BUFFET
THE RIDGE TOPS...AND LOCATIONS NORTH OF RIDGE GAPS. MAX TEMPS WILL
LKLY RANGE FROM THE LOW 60S OVR THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU TO THE
L/M70S ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BROAD AND DEEP/CLOSED H5 CYCLONE CENTERED INVOF THE OH/IN/KY
BORDER AT 16/0000Z WILL PIVOT SLOWLY ENEWD INTO W-CNTRL PA BY
17/0000Z. BY THIS TIME A KICKER SYSTEM CROSSING THE NRN PLAINS AND
UPPER MIDWEST WILL FORCE THE AMPLIFIED EASTERN U.S. SYSTEM INTO A
PROCESS OF OPENING/WEAKENING INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND BY EARLY FRIDAY.
THIS PROCESS APPEARS TO BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE NRN KICKER SYSTEM
ENERGY IS ABSORBED AND FEEDS INTO THE ERN CONUS MEAN TROUGH. WHAT
ULTIMATELY HAPPENS WITH THIS ENERGY REMAINS UNDECIDED FROM A MODEL
PERSPECTIVE AS THE SUBTLE SHORTWAVE DIFFS WILL LKLY IMPACT THE
SHARPNESS OF THE TROUGH ALONG WITH THE PROGRESSION OF EMBEDDED SFC
FRONTS. TAKEN AS A WHOLE...THE INCORPORATION OF THE UPSTREAM
ENERGY SHOULD ALLOW THE TROUGH TO RELOAD OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AND NORTHEAST STATES INTO THE WEEKEND. ENSEMBLE
MEANS AND TELECONNECTIONS FAVOR PERSISTENT ERN CONUS TROUGHING
INTO NEXT WEEK.
HVY RAIN THREAT SHOULD SHIFT EWD OUT OF THE CWA WED NGT ALONG WITH
THE STG SLY LLJ AND AXIS OF ANOMALOUS MSTR/PWS. HOWEVER EXPECT
WEATHER CONDITIONS TO REMAIN UNSETTLED AND `SHOWERY` ON THURS AS
THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH LIFTS NEWD ACROSS THE AREA. BROAD CYCLONIC
FLOW WILL KEEP THE CHC OF SHOWERS IN THE FCST ALONG THE ALLEGHENY
FRONT/NW PLATEAU HOWEVER PCPN LOOKS TO BE VERY LGT/SPOTTY OVER
THESE AREAS FRI. FRONTAL PASSAGE EMBEDDED WITHIN BROAD CYC FLOW
ALOFT SHOULD OCCUR AROUND SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A CHUNK OF SUB-
ZERO AIR AT 850MB SAT NGT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THIS MAY SUPPORT SOME
SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE FAVORED HIGH ELEVATIONS/UPSLOPE AREAS ALONG
THE WRN RIDGES AND DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE. HP SHOULD PROVIDE MAINLY
DRY WEATHER SUN INTO MON.
ONE OR MORE REINFORCING SFC FRONTAL PASSAGES ALONG WITH MEAN
TROUGHING SHOULD SUPPORT SEASONABLY COOL...NEAR-TO-BELOW AVG
TEMPERATURES DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
WED NGT LOW TEMPS WHICH WILL STILL BE RELATIVELY MILD BY MID OCT
STANDARDS.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAKING SLOW BUT STEADY PROGRESS ACROSS CENTRAL
PA OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS NOW AT ALL
TAFS SITES...SAVE FOR KLNS...AND WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH
LOWERED CONDS OVER THE WEST.
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BREEZY AT THE SURFACE AS 850MB FLOW
APPROACHES 50KTS...CONTINUING THIS PROLONGED PERIOD OF LLWS.
THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH A STRONG FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION LATE TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED EVE. STRONG FLOW WILL KEEP
WINDS GUSTY AND LLWS ONGOING. WIDESPREAD REDUCTIONS WILL ALSO
PERSIST WITH OTHER IMPACTS BEING AN APPROX 12HR PERIOD OF RAIN AND
POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS /IN THE WEST DURING THE DAY WED AND IN THE
EAST WED AFT AND EVE/.
OUTLOOK...
WED...COLD FRONT. WIDESPREAD REDUCTIONS. PERIODS OF RAIN AND
SCATTERED TSTMS. LLWS. BREEZY.
THU...SCT SHOWERS WITH RESTRICTIONS LIKELY. IMPROVING LATE.
LIGHTER WINDS.
FRI...MAINLY VFR.
SAT-SUN...MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT MVFR CIGS AND CHC SHRA/SHSN
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...DEVOIR/GARTNER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
158 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
COOL HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL GRADUALLY RELAX
ITS INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER TODAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES IN
ADVANCE OF A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES. THIS TROUGH AND A STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WINDS...HEAVY RAIN...AND POSSIBLY STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY LIFTS OUT OF THE REGION.
IMPROVING WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1245 PM EDT MONDAY...
BIGGEST ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON INCLUDE
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND LESS CLOUD COVER TO THE AREA OF THE
FORECAST AREA BETWEEN AND WEST OF BLUEFIELD WV TO MARION VA. HERE
INCREASING SOUTHEAST FLOW HAS RESULTED IN A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT
THAT IS HELPING TO ERODE THE CLOUD COVER AND INCREASE THE
TEMPERATURE. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID
70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO...HAVE DOWNPLAYED THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON TO PRIMARILY
THOSE AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ALONG WITH SOME PATCHY
DRIZZLE. HAVE ALSO LOWERED EXPECTED HIGH TEMPERATURES IN AREAS
CLOSEST TO THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE CLOUDY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.
AS OF 945 AM EDT MONDAY...
ONLY SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION
CURRENTLY. LIGHT AMOUNTS WERE ALONG THE CREST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...AND A SMALL AREA WAS HEADING NORTH OF BLACKSBURG...ALONG
THE WV/VA BORDER. HRRR AND RNK-WRF ARW SOLUTIONS OFFER VERY LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
HOWEVER...THAT VALUE IS NOT ZERO. WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A FORECAST
THAT REFLECTS SLIGHT TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS WITH THE BEST FOCUS STILL ALONG THE SLOPES OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. WHILE THE TRAJECTORY ANGLE IS NOT THE BEST FOR
UPSLOPE...AS 850 MB WINDS INCREASE...EVEN A COMPONENT TO UPSLOPE
WILL HELP MAINTAIN SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN AT LEAST THIS
REGION.
FORECAST SURFACE BASED LIFTED INDICES AND CAPE VALUES OFFER A
SOLUTION THAT ALLOWS FOR THE POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED STORMS ALONG
THE FAR WESTERN PARTS OF THE REGION...AND ALSO THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE REGION. HAVE RE-INTRODUCED THIS
POTENTIAL DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THESE REGIONS.
HOW QUICKLY THE WEDGE ERODES STILL IS A BIG QUESTION FOR TODAY.
HAVE NOT MADE ANY NOTABLE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST REGARDING
THIS IN TERMS OF CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES GIVEN NO ANOMALIES AT
THIS POINT TO SUGGEST THE FORECAST WILL NOT BE ON TRACK.
AS OF 400 AM EDT MONDAY...
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE PROVERBIAL CALM BEFORE THE STORM AS WE
AWAIT THE APPROACH OF THE INTENSE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE
CENTRAL U.S. MODELS ARE IN VERY CLOSE AGREEMENT ON THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY AND THEN
KICKING IT EASTWARD INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY 12Z
TUESDAY. A STRONG (591 DM) UPPER RIDGE WILL BE POSITIONED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST WHICH ALSO PLAY A ROLE IN PREVENTING THE
RAPID EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND ENHANCING THE MOIST
ATLANTIC AND GULF INFLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE SURFACE HIGH
ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST HAT HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR THE COOL-
AIR DAMMING OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE SLOWLY DRIFTING EAST TODAY
ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE DAY TODAY
ERODING THE LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE. HOW QUICKLY THIS WILL OCCUR
TODAY IS ALWAYS A TRICKY ASPECT OF FORECASTING IN THIS AREA WITH
SKY COVER AND HENCE HIGH TEMPERATURES RIDING ON THE OUTCOME.
PICKED A MODEL BLEND FOR HIGH TEMPS BUT EDGED TOWARD SOMEWHAT
SLOWER EROSION WHICH RESULTS IN HIGHS RANGING FROM UPPER 60S NW TO
MID-70S SE AND ALSO FAR WEST WHERE THE WEDGE WILL ERODE MOST
QUICKLY UNDER THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW. H85 WINDS IN THAT
SAME FAR WESTERN AREA (MAINLY TAZEWELL...SMYTH..MERCER COUNTIES)
WILL BE INCREASING FROM NEAR 25 KT EARLY THIS MORNING TO THE 45-50
KT RANGE BY 12Z TUESDAY WITH SOME OF THIS WINDS MIXING DOWN DURING
THE 06-12Z PERIOD. STRONGEST WINDS LIKELY TO BE BEYOND THE 12Z
CUT-OFF FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD WHEN A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED. SCATTERED SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE TODAY AS THE AIR MASS
REMAINS QUITE MOIST AND ANY WEAK IMPULSES WILL BE CAPABLE OF
GENERATING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT MONDAY...
MODELS CONTINUE TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO TIMING OF THE INTENSE
UPPER-LEVEL LOW/TROUGH SLATED TO DEVELOP TODAY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...THEN SPREAD EASTWARD INTO TUE. EACH
MODEL RUN FOR ALL MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW THE ARRIVAL OF THE MAIN
LINE OF INTENSE CONVECTION INTO OUR CWA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...LIKELY OWING TO THE IMPRESSIVE DIGGING/DEVELOPMENT OF THE
SYSTEM IN RESPONSE TO A 125+KT UPPER JET AND 60-70KT LLJ. IN
ESSENCE...THE MAIN LINE OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
IS NEARLY 36 HOURS SLOWER THAN WHAT WAS PROGGED TWO DAYS AGO AT
THIS TIME. NOW...INSTEAD OF A 12Z TUE TIME FRAME...WE ARE LOOKING
AT A 12Z WED TO 00Z THU TIME FRAME FOR THE MAIN EFFECTS.
THUS FOR TUE...THE WEDGE WILL BEGIN TO FINALLY ERODE...BUT AGAIN
NOT LIKELY AS QUICKLY AS THE MODELS WOULD SUGGEST. PERSISTENT
UPSLOPE AND INCREASING SOUTHEAST SFC FLOW WILL RESULT IN A
CONTINUATION OF SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
ALLEGHANY FRONT AND ALONG UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THE
MAIN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MON AND TUE...HOWEVER...WILL BE THAT AS
THE TROUGH DEEPENS IN THE CENTRAL U.S...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL
BRIEFLY AMPLIFY THROUGH THE SE STATES INTO NC/VA. THIS WILL PUT
MUCH OF THE CWA...EAST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT...IN A WARM SECTOR
WHICH SHOULD REDUCE COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION WITH INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. HOWEVER...ANY PERSISTENCE OF THE WEDGE
UNDERNEATH THE UPPER HIGH WILL PROMOTE CONTINUATION OF UPSLOPE
CLOUDS AND LIGHT -SHRA AS NOTED. THUS...HAVE MAINTAINED HIGH CHC
TO LOW LIKELY POPS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES...UPPER SUPPORT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
FAVORABLE...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN AREAS...AND INSTABILITY WILL
BEGIN TO SUPPORT THE MENTION OF TSRA WEST OF I-77 BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
CATEGORICAL POPS ARE IN ORDER FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION
BETWEEN 00Z WED AND 18Z WED WITH A SCENARIO OF A VERY SLOWLY
MOVING NEARLY MERIDIONAL OR SOUTH-NORTH ORIENTED NARROW BAND OF
INTENSE CONVECTION TRANSLATING SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION AS THE
UPPER LOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY BAROTROPIC. IN FACT...IT COULD TAKE
UNTIL LATE WED FOR THE CONVECTION TO REACH EASTERN VA...SO HAVE
THE PERIOD OF CATEGORICAL POPS A GOOD 12 HOURS FROM THAT PREVIOUSLY
INDICATED. INSTABILITY REMAINS MARGINAL...BUT THE VERY STRONG LLJ
AND PROGGED SHEAR ALONG WITH CONVECTIVE MODE SUGGEST A QLCS IS
MOST PROBABLE WITH THIS SYSTEM. THIS WILL YIELD MARGINAL AMOUNTS
OF LIGHTNING...BUT POSSIBLE BOWING SEGMENTS WHICH CAN RESULT IN
LOCALIZED AREAS OF DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY EVEN AN ISOLATED
TORNADO. SPC HAS UPGRADED MUCH OF SW VA INTO A SLIGHT RISK THROUGH
THIS PERIOD...WITH A 5 PERCENT RISK FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA.
THE MAIN THREAT FOR SEVERE WILL BE WITH THE STRONG LLJ TUE
NIGHT/EARLY WED...WITH LESS THREAT FURTHER EAST AS THE JET LIFTS
NORTH OUT OF THE REGION WITH THE UPPER LOW CUTTING OFF AND
BECOMING INCREASINGLY BAROTROPIC.
HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE A THREAT WITH ANY TRAINING OF ECHOES
WITHIN THE SOUTH-NORTH ORIENTED BAND...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING MUCH
PARTS OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...HAVE SEEN
1-2 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE PAST FEW DAYS. PWATS ARE WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE 1.5+ RANGE AS THE CORE OF THE EVENT MOVES
THROUGH. THE FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD THREAT IS ADDRESSED FURTHER IN THE
HYDRO SECTION BELOW.
ANOTHER THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE STRONG WIND GUSTS IN THE
USUAL FAVORED AREAS OF SOUTHEAST WV AND SOUTHWEST VA AS THE LLJ
TRANSLATES THROUGH THE REGION. GIVEN THE DELAYED TIMING OF THIS
TO AFT 12Z TUE WITH A SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER LOW/STRONG LLJ
THE POTENTIAL FOR A HIGH WIND WATCH/WIND ADVISORY WOULD BE DELAYED
UNTIL 3RD PERIOD. FURTHERMORE...MODELS HAVE SHOWN A RELUCTANCE TO
BRING POTENTIAL WINDS GUSTS OF 40-50KTS DOWN TO THE SFC. FEEL THAT
A WIND ADVISORY WILL MOST CERTAINLY BE WARRANTED AND WIND GUSTS
FOR A BRIEF PERIOD MAY REACH HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA IN PARTS
OF MERCER AND TAZEWELL COUNTIES. HOWEVER...NO OTHER OFFICES ARE ON
BOARD WITH A WATCH AND TOO FAR OUT FOR AN ADVISORY...SO NO NPW
WILL BE ISSUED AT THIS POINT. AS WITH THE SEVERE THREAT...WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE THREAT IN THE HWO.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN PROBLEMATIC...FIRST BECAUSE OF LINGERING
EFFECTS OF THE WEDGE AND THEREAFTER BECAUSE OF THE CLOSED...COLD
CORE SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW...CYCLONIC FLOW...AND POTENTIALLY
HIGHLY VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE FROM WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS TO
THE PIEDMONT. HAVE LEANED TOWARD A MODEL BLEND THROUGH THE PERIOD
AS OPPOSED TO HINGING THE TEMPERATURES ON ANY ONE MODEL. TUE
SHOULD YIELD NEAR NORMAL TEMPS WEST TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
EAST...GIVEN EROSION OF THE WEDGE AND STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW. WED
SHOULD ALSO YIELD NEAR MAX TEMPS AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL MIN
TEMPS...AGAIN PRIMARILY BECAUSE OF STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
DEWPOINTS INTO THE 60S EARLY WED...WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID-
OCTOBER. THU...SHOULD SEE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS...ESPECIALLY WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE CLOUDS AND SCT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED.
AGAIN...NO BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED EVEN AFTER THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH 850MB TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE +4 TO +6C
RANGE.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT MONDAY...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP CLOSED
UPPER LOW THROUGH THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK...FINALLY LIFTING OUT
FRI-SAT. SCT SHOWERS WILL PERSIST UNDER/NEAR THE UPPER LOW WITH A
NOTABLE DIURNAL INCREASE AS DAYTIME HEATING CREATES RELATIVELY
STEEP LAPSE RATES UNDER THE COLD CORE LOW. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WILL BE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. A HEALTHY SHORT WAVE IS
PROGGED TO FINALLY LIFT THE UPPER LOW OUT THU AFTERNOON...BUT IN
SO DOING WILL LIKELY BRING THE BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS TO THE
REGION...EVEN INTO THE PIEDMONT.
FOR THE WEEKEND...FINALLY SOME IMPROVING CONDITIONS INDICATED WITH
GREATER POTENTIAL FOR SUNSHINE...EVEN ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. MAINLY
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE LONG RANGE PERIOD WITH
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEMS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA UNTIL
EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED UNDER A
WEAK WARM ADVECTION PATTERN ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BEFORE NEXT
UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROF SCOOTS RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST OUT OF NORTHERN
PLAINS AND INTO NEW ENGLAND LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
BEST DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL
TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE BLACKSBURG FORECAST AREA...SO OTHER THAN A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...ONLY SENSIBLE IMPACT
WILL BE FOR A SLIGHT REINFORCEMENT OF COOLER AIR WITH PASSAGE OF DRY
COOL FRONT...AND POSSIBLY SOME ISOLATED-WIDELY SCATTERED POST
FRONTAL UPSLOPE SHOWERS REDEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN FLANKS OF
THE APPALACHIANS IN SOUTHEASTERN WEST VIRGINIA...MOST NOTABLY IN
WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1240 PM EDT MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ALONG THE CREST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE ALONG WITH MAINLY LIFR/IFR CIGS AND IFR/MVFR VSBYS FOR LIGHT
FOG AND SOME DRIZZLE. OUTSIDE THE INFLUENCE OF THE WEDGE...ALONG
AND WEST OF A KBLF-KMKJ LINE...SCT-BKN MVFR BASED CLOUDS WERE THE
NORM AS INCREASING SOUTHEAST FLOW IS HELPING TO ERODE THE CLOUD
COVER. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON WITH PERHAPS A BIT MORE EROSION OF THE WEDGE ON ITS
EASTERN AND WESTERN FLANKS.
OVERNIGHT...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY...PROGGED
TO REACH 40 TO 50 KTS AT 850 MB BY 12Z/8AM TUESDAY. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A VERY GENEROUS MOISTURE FETCH INTO THE REGION THAT WILL
YIELD UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION MAINLY IN AREAS NEAREST THE CREST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE. VSBYS AND CIGS WILL ALSO TREND LOWER IN THIS AREA.
THE INCREASING WINDS ABOVE THE WEDGE WILL YIELD LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR AT ALL BUT PERHAPS KBLF. HERE...OUTSIDE THE INFLUENCE OF THE
WEDGE...THE WINDS WILL REMAIN MIXED.
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY...THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY OF
THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN TO OUR
WEST. FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL START TO IMPROVE BY THE LATE MORNING
AS BETTER MIXING...AND EROSION OF THE WEDGE TAKES PLACE.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT A VERY STRONG NEGATIVELY
TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.
LOOK FOR A SOUTHERLY 850 MB JET TO REACH 50 TO 60 KTS IN ADVANCE
OF THE SYSTEM. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH PLENTY OF PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED IN ADVANCE AND CONCURRENT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.
ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THE FRONT WILL EXIT THE REGION BUT
NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM WILL KEEP UPSLOPE CLOUDS AND RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE CENTER
OF THE PARENT UPPER LOW SETTLES OVER PENNSYLVANIA.
BY FRIDAY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN AS WE TRANSITION
INTO A MORE ZONAL PATTERN. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED THOUGH AS OUR
NEXT GREAT LAKES TROUGH DEEPENS ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL START TO
INCREASE AGAIN BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 400 AM EDT MONDAY...
THE UPCOMING EVENT WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT HYDRO COMPONENT WITH
HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED ACROSS ALL RIVER BASINS MAINLY AFTER 12Z
TUESDAY AND PERSISTING INTO EARLY THURSDAY. QPF FROM HPC DURING
THIS PERIOD IS GENERALLY IN THE 2 TO 3 INCH RANGE WITH THE TYPICAL
TERRAIN ENHANCEMENTS. GEFS AND NAEFS ENSEMBLE PRECIPITATION
FORECASTS FROM THE VARIOUS RFCS STILL SHOWING CONSIDERABLE SPREAD
IN THE QPF WITH ANYWHERE FROM 1 TO 5 INCHES IN NEARLY ALL BASINS
BUT SOLUTIONS CLUSTERING MAINLY IN THE 2 TO 2.5 INCH RANGE. THE
RIVER FORECAST ENSEMBLES RESULTING FROM THIS QPF GENERATE A LOT OF
FORECASTS NEAR OR JUST BELOW ACTION STAGE WITH A FEW MEMBERS
REACHING MINOR FLOOD STAGE AND MAYBE ONE OR TWO OUTLIERS AT
MODERATE FLOOD STAGE. SO IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A VERY SERIOUS
RIVER FLOOD EVENT AT THIS POINT BUT CERTAINLY WILL BE WATCHED
CLOSELY. ALSO A FLASH FLOOD THREAT TO CONSIDER AS PWATS REACH 2 TO
3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE MID-OCTOBER KRNK RAOB CLIMATOLOGY BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING RANGING FROM 1.5 TO 1.7 INCHES AT KRNK AND
SOMEWHAT HIGHER AT ROANOKE. WITH THE WIDESPREAD 2 TO 3 INCH
RAINFALL AND EMBEDDED CONVECTION THERE WILL LIKELY BE ISOLATED 4
TO 5 INCH AMOUNTS ACROSS A FEW SMALL BASINS AND POCKETS OF RAPID
RESPONSE FLOODING SEEM TO BE A REASONABLE BET. HPC CURRENTLY
SHOWING A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN EXCESS OF FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE IN THE FAR WESTERN CWA BY 12Z TUE AND FOR MOST THE
REMAINDER 12Z TUE TO 12Z WED. AN ADDITIONAL FACTOR IN THE FLOOD
POTENTIAL IS THE LOW FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES RESULTING FROM
RAINFALL SO FAR IN OCTOBER WHICH HAS REACHED 4 TO 6 INCHES IN
PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE AND NEW RIVER BASINS.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PC
NEAR TERM...DS/PC
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...RAB/WERT
AVIATION...DS
HYDROLOGY...PC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1248 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
COOL HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL GRADUALLY RELAX
ITS INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER TODAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES IN
ADVANCE OF A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES. THIS TROUGH AND A STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WINDS...HEAVY RAIN...AND POSSIBLY STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY LIFTS OUT OF THE REGION.
IMPROVING WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1245 PM EDT MONDAY...
BIGGEST ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON INCLUDE
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND LESS CLOUD COVER TO THE AREA OF THE
FORECAST AREA BETWEEN AND WEST OF BLUEFIELD WV TO MARION VA. HERE
INCREASING SOUTHEAST FLOW HAS RESULTED IN A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT
THAT IS HELPING TO ERODE THE CLOUD COVER AND INCREASE THE
TEMPERATURE. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID
70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO...HAVE DOWNPLAYED THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON TO PRIMARILY
THOSE AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ALONG WITH SOME PATCHY
DRIZZLE. HAVE ALSO LOWERED EXPECTED HIGH TEMPERATURES IN AREAS
CLOSEST TO THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE CLOUDY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.
AS OF 945 AM EDT MONDAY...
ONLY SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION
CURRENTLY. LIGHT AMOUNTS WERE ALONG THE CREST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...AND A SMALL AREA WAS HEADING NORTH OF BLACKSBURG...ALONG
THE WV/VA BORDER. HRRR AND RNK-WRF ARW SOLUTIONS OFFER VERY LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
HOWEVER...THAT VALUE IS NOT ZERO. WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A FORECAST
THAT REFLECTS SLIGHT TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS WITH THE BEST FOCUS STILL ALONG THE SLOPES OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. WHILE THE TRAJECTORY ANGLE IS NOT THE BEST FOR
UPSLOPE...AS 850 MB WINDS INCREASE...EVEN A COMPONENT TO UPSLOPE
WILL HELP MAINTAIN SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN AT LEAST THIS
REGION.
FORECAST SURFACE BASED LIFTED INDICES AND CAPE VALUES OFFER A
SOLUTION THAT ALLOWS FOR THE POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED STORMS ALONG
THE FAR WESTERN PARTS OF THE REGION...AND ALSO THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE REGION. HAVE RE-INTRODUCED THIS
POTENTIAL DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THESE REGIONS.
HOW QUICKLY THE WEDGE ERODES STILL IS A BIG QUESTION FOR TODAY.
HAVE NOT MADE ANY NOTABLE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST REGARDING
THIS IN TERMS OF CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES GIVEN NO ANOMALIES AT
THIS POINT TO SUGGEST THE FORECAST WILL NOT BE ON TRACK.
AS OF 400 AM EDT MONDAY...
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE PROVERBIAL CALM BEFORE THE STORM AS WE
AWAIT THE APPROACH OF THE INTENSE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE
CENTRAL U.S. MODELS ARE IN VERY CLOSE AGREEMENT ON THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY AND THEN
KICKING IT EASTWARD INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY 12Z
TUESDAY. A STRONG (591 DM) UPPER RIDGE WILL BE POSITIONED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST WHICH ALSO PLAY A ROLE IN PREVENTING THE
RAPID EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND ENHANCING THE MOIST
ATLANTIC AND GULF INFLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE SURFACE HIGH
ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST HAT HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR THE COOL-
AIR DAMMING OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE SLOWLY DRIFTING EAST TODAY
ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE DAY TODAY
ERODING THE LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE. HOW QUICKLY THIS WILL OCCUR
TODAY IS ALWAYS A TRICKY ASPECT OF FORECASTING IN THIS AREA WITH
SKY COVER AND HENCE HIGH TEMPERATURES RIDING ON THE OUTCOME.
PICKED A MODEL BLEND FOR HIGH TEMPS BUT EDGED TOWARD SOMEWHAT
SLOWER EROSION WHICH RESULTS IN HIGHS RANGING FROM UPPER 60S NW TO
MID-70S SE AND ALSO FAR WEST WHERE THE WEDGE WILL ERODE MOST
QUICKLY UNDER THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW. H85 WINDS IN THAT
SAME FAR WESTERN AREA (MAINLY TAZEWELL...SMYTH..MERCER COUNTIES)
WILL BE INCREASING FROM NEAR 25 KT EARLY THIS MORNING TO THE 45-50
KT RANGE BY 12Z TUESDAY WITH SOME OF THIS WINDS MIXING DOWN DURING
THE 06-12Z PERIOD. STRONGEST WINDS LIKELY TO BE BEYOND THE 12Z
CUT-OFF FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD WHEN A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED. SCATTERED SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE TODAY AS THE AIR MASS
REMAINS QUITE MOIST AND ANY WEAK IMPULSES WILL BE CAPABLE OF
GENERATING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT MONDAY...
MODELS CONTINUE TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO TIMING OF THE INTENSE
UPPER-LEVEL LOW/TROUGH SLATED TO DEVELOP TODAY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...THEN SPREAD EASTWARD INTO TUE. EACH
MODEL RUN FOR ALL MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW THE ARRIVAL OF THE MAIN
LINE OF INTENSE CONVECTION INTO OUR CWA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...LIKELY OWING TO THE IMPRESSIVE DIGGING/DEVELOPMENT OF THE
SYSTEM IN RESPONSE TO A 125+KT UPPER JET AND 60-70KT LLJ. IN
ESSENCE...THE MAIN LINE OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
IS NEARLY 36 HOURS SLOWER THAN WHAT WAS PROGGED TWO DAYS AGO AT
THIS TIME. NOW...INSTEAD OF A 12Z TUE TIME FRAME...WE ARE LOOKING
AT A 12Z WED TO 00Z THU TIME FRAME FOR THE MAIN EFFECTS.
THUS FOR TUE...THE WEDGE WILL BEGIN TO FINALLY ERODE...BUT AGAIN
NOT LIKELY AS QUICKLY AS THE MODELS WOULD SUGGEST. PERSISTENT
UPSLOPE AND INCREASING SOUTHEAST SFC FLOW WILL RESULT IN A
CONTINUATION OF SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
ALLEGHANY FRONT AND ALONG UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THE
MAIN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MON AND TUE...HOWEVER...WILL BE THAT AS
THE TROUGH DEEPENS IN THE CENTRAL U.S...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL
BRIEFLY AMPLIFY THROUGH THE SE STATES INTO NC/VA. THIS WILL PUT
MUCH OF THE CWA...EAST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT...IN A WARM SECTOR
WHICH SHOULD REDUCE COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION WITH INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. HOWEVER...ANY PERSISTENCE OF THE WEDGE
UNDERNEATH THE UPPER HIGH WILL PROMOTE CONTINUATION OF UPSLOPE
CLOUDS AND LIGHT -SHRA AS NOTED. THUS...HAVE MAINTAINED HIGH CHC
TO LOW LIKELY POPS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES...UPPER SUPPORT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
FAVORABLE...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN AREAS...AND INSTABILITY WILL
BEGIN TO SUPPORT THE MENTION OF TSRA WEST OF I-77 BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
CATEGORICAL POPS ARE IN ORDER FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION
BETWEEN 00Z WED AND 18Z WED WITH A SCENARIO OF A VERY SLOWLY
MOVING NEARLY MERIDIONAL OR SOUTH-NORTH ORIENTED NARROW BAND OF
INTENSE CONVECTION TRANSLATING SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION AS THE
UPPER LOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY BAROTROPIC. IN FACT...IT COULD TAKE
UNTIL LATE WED FOR THE CONVECTION TO REACH EASTERN VA...SO HAVE
THE PERIOD OF CATEGORICAL POPS A GOOD 12 HOURS FROM THAT PREVIOUSLY
INDICATED. INSTABILITY REMAINS MARGINAL...BUT THE VERY STRONG LLJ
AND PROGGED SHEAR ALONG WITH CONVECTIVE MODE SUGGEST A QLCS IS
MOST PROBABLE WITH THIS SYSTEM. THIS WILL YIELD MARGINAL AMOUNTS
OF LIGHTNING...BUT POSSIBLE BOWING SEGMENTS WHICH CAN RESULT IN
LOCALIZED AREAS OF DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY EVEN AN ISOLATED
TORNADO. SPC HAS UPGRADED MUCH OF SW VA INTO A SLIGHT RISK THROUGH
THIS PERIOD...WITH A 5 PERCENT RISK FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA.
THE MAIN THREAT FOR SEVERE WILL BE WITH THE STRONG LLJ TUE
NIGHT/EARLY WED...WITH LESS THREAT FURTHER EAST AS THE JET LIFTS
NORTH OUT OF THE REGION WITH THE UPPER LOW CUTTING OFF AND
BECOMING INCREASINGLY BAROTROPIC.
HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE A THREAT WITH ANY TRAINING OF ECHOES
WITHIN THE SOUTH-NORTH ORIENTED BAND...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING MUCH
PARTS OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...HAVE SEEN
1-2 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE PAST FEW DAYS. PWATS ARE WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE 1.5+ RANGE AS THE CORE OF THE EVENT MOVES
THROUGH. THE FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD THREAT IS ADDRESSED FURTHER IN THE
HYDRO SECTION BELOW.
ANOTHER THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE STRONG WIND GUSTS IN THE
USUAL FAVORED AREAS OF SOUTHEAST WV AND SOUTHWEST VA AS THE LLJ
TRANSLATES THROUGH THE REGION. GIVEN THE DELAYED TIMING OF THIS
TO AFT 12Z TUE WITH A SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER LOW/STRONG LLJ
THE POTENTIAL FOR A HIGH WIND WATCH/WIND ADVISORY WOULD BE DELAYED
UNTIL 3RD PERIOD. FURTHERMORE...MODELS HAVE SHOWN A RELUCTANCE TO
BRING POTENTIAL WINDS GUSTS OF 40-50KTS DOWN TO THE SFC. FEEL THAT
A WIND ADVISORY WILL MOST CERTAINLY BE WARRANTED AND WIND GUSTS
FOR A BRIEF PERIOD MAY REACH HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA IN PARTS
OF MERCER AND TAZEWELL COUNTIES. HOWEVER...NO OTHER OFFICES ARE ON
BOARD WITH A WATCH AND TOO FAR OUT FOR AN ADVISORY...SO NO NPW
WILL BE ISSUED AT THIS POINT. AS WITH THE SEVERE THREAT...WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE THREAT IN THE HWO.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN PROBLEMATIC...FIRST BECAUSE OF LINGERING
EFFECTS OF THE WEDGE AND THEREAFTER BECAUSE OF THE CLOSED...COLD
CORE SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW...CYCLONIC FLOW...AND POTENTIALLY
HIGHLY VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE FROM WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS TO
THE PIEDMONT. HAVE LEANED TOWARD A MODEL BLEND THROUGH THE PERIOD
AS OPPOSED TO HINGING THE TEMPERATURES ON ANY ONE MODEL. TUE
SHOULD YIELD NEAR NORMAL TEMPS WEST TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
EAST...GIVEN EROSION OF THE WEDGE AND STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW. WED
SHOULD ALSO YIELD NEAR MAX TEMPS AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL MIN
TEMPS...AGAIN PRIMARILY BECAUSE OF STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
DEWPOINTS INTO THE 60S EARLY WED...WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID-
OCTOBER. THU...SHOULD SEE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS...ESPECIALLY WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE CLOUDS AND SCT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED.
AGAIN...NO BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED EVEN AFTER THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH 850MB TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE +4 TO +6C
RANGE.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT MONDAY...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP CLOSED
UPPER LOW THROUGH THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK...FINALLY LIFTING OUT
FRI-SAT. SCT SHOWERS WILL PERSIST UNDER/NEAR THE UPPER LOW WITH A
NOTABLE DIURNAL INCREASE AS DAYTIME HEATING CREATES RELATIVELY
STEEP LAPSE RATES UNDER THE COLD CORE LOW. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WILL BE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. A HEALTHY SHORT WAVE IS
PROGGED TO FINALLY LIFT THE UPPER LOW OUT THU AFTERNOON...BUT IN
SO DOING WILL LIKELY BRING THE BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS TO THE
REGION...EVEN INTO THE PIEDMONT.
FOR THE WEEKEND...FINALLY SOME IMPROVING CONDITIONS INDICATED WITH
GREATER POTENTIAL FOR SUNSHINE...EVEN ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. MAINLY
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE LONG RANGE PERIOD WITH
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEMS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA UNTIL
EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED UNDER A
WEAK WARM ADVECTION PATTERN ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BEFORE NEXT
UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROF SCOOTS RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST OUT OF NORTHERN
PLAINS AND INTO NEW ENGLAND LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
BEST DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL
TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE BLACKSBURG FORECAST AREA...SO OTHER THAN A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...ONLY SENSIBLE IMPACT
WILL BE FOR A SLIGHT REINFORCEMENT OF COOLER AIR WITH PASSAGE OF DRY
COOL FRONT...AND POSSIBLY SOME ISOLATED-WIDELY SCATTERED POST
FRONTAL UPSLOPE SHOWERS REDEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN FLANKS OF
THE APPALACHIANS IN SOUTHEASTERN WEST VIRGINIA...MOST NOTABLY IN
WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 630 AM EDT MONDAY...
VARIABLE FLIGHT CONDITIONS LIKELY TO BE THE RULE TODAY AT THE
TERMINALS AS DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE STRUGGLES TO MAINTAIN
THE LOW CLOUDS AND EASTERLY FLOW WHILE THE TROUGH DEVELOPING
OUT WEST BRINGS INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT TRYING TO MIX
DOWN TO THE SURFACE AND SCOUR OUT THE LOW CLOUDS. SHOULD SEE VERY
SLOW IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS/VBSYS AS THIS OCCURS TODAY. UNLIKELY
TO SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF VFR BUT AT LEAST MVFR BY LATER IN THE
DAY OR EVENING. ANY PARTIAL CLEARING THAT TAKES PLACE LATE TODAY
OR OVERNIGHT LIKELY TO BRIEF AS EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS FROM THE
CENTRAL U.S. SYSTEM WILL BE EDGING INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA BY THAT TIME...WHICH MAY ACT TO INHIBIT FOG DEVELOPMENT
TOWARD MORNING.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT A VERY STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER
TROUGH WILL APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. LOOK FOR A
SOUTHERLY 850 MB JET TO REACH 50 TO 70 KTS IN ADVANCE OF THE
SYSTEM. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH PLENTY OF PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED IN ADVANCE AND CONCURRENT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
ON WEDNESDAY...THE FRONT WILL EXIT THE REGION BUT NORTHWEST FLOW
BEHIND THE SYSTEM WILL KEEP UPSLOPE CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF
NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE PARENT UPPER
LOW SETTLES OVER PENNSYLVANIA.
BY FRIDAY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN AS WE TRANSITION
INTO A MORE ZONAL PATTERN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 400 AM EDT MONDAY...
THE UPCOMING EVENT WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT HYDRO COMPONENT WITH
HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED ACROSS ALL RIVER BASINS MAINLY AFTER 12Z
TUESDAY AND PERSISTING INTO EARLY THURSDAY. QPF FROM HPC DURING
THIS PERIOD IS GENERALLY IN THE 2 TO 3 INCH RANGE WITH THE TYPICAL
TERRAIN ENHANCEMENTS. GEFS AND NAEFS ENSEMBLE PRECIPITATION
FORECASTS FROM THE VARIOUS RFCS STILL SHOWING CONSIDERABLE SPREAD
IN THE QPF WITH ANYWHERE FROM 1 TO 5 INCHES IN NEARLY ALL BASINS
BUT SOLUTIONS CLUSTERING MAINLY IN THE 2 TO 2.5 INCH RANGE. THE
RIVER FORECAST ENSEMBLES RESULTING FROM THIS QPF GENERATE A LOT OF
FORECASTS NEAR OR JUST BELOW ACTION STAGE WITH A FEW MEMBERS
REACHING MINOR FLOOD STAGE AND MAYBE ONE OR TWO OUTLIERS AT
MODERATE FLOOD STAGE. SO IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A VERY SERIOUS
RIVER FLOOD EVENT AT THIS POINT BUT CERTAINLY WILL BE WATCHED
CLOSELY. ALSO A FLASH FLOOD THREAT TO CONSIDER AS PWATS REACH 2 TO
3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE MID-OCTOBER KRNK RAOB CLIMATOLOGY BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING RANGING FROM 1.5 TO 1.7 INCHES AT KRNK AND
SOMEWHAT HIGHER AT ROANOKE. WITH THE WIDESPREAD 2 TO 3 INCH
RAINFALL AND EMBEDDED CONVECTION THERE WILL LIKELY BE ISOLATED 4
TO 5 INCH AMOUNTS ACROSS A FEW SMALL BASINS AND POCKETS OF RAPID
RESPONSE FLOODING SEEM TO BE A REASONABLE BET. HPC CURRENTLY
SHOWING A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN EXCESS OF FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE IN THE FAR WESTERN CWA BY 12Z TUE AND FOR MOST THE
REMAINDER 12Z TUE TO 12Z WED. AN ADDITIONAL FACTOR IN THE FLOOD
POTENTIAL IS THE LOW FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES RESULTING FROM
RAINFALL SO FAR IN OCTOBER WHICH HAS REACHED 4 TO 6 INCHES IN
PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE AND NEW RIVER BASINS.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PC
NEAR TERM...DS/PC
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...RAB/WERT
AVIATION...PC
HYDROLOGY...PC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
955 AM EDT MON OCT 13 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
COOL HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL GRADUALLY RELAX
ITS INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER TODAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES IN
ADVANCE OF A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES. THIS TROUGH AND A STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WINDS...HEAVY RAIN...AND POSSIBLY STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY LIFTS OUT OF THE REGION.
IMPROVING WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 AM EDT MONDAY...
ONLY SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION
CURRENTLY. LIGHT AMOUNTS WERE ALONG THE CREST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...AND A SMALL AREA WAS HEADING NORTH OF BLACKSBURG...ALONG
THE WV/VA BORDER. HRRR AND RNK-WRF ARW SOLUTIONS OFFER VERY LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
HOWEVER...THAT VALUE IS NOT ZERO. WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A FORECAST
THAT REFLECTS SLIGHT TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS WITH THE BEST FOCUS STILL ALONG THE SLOPES OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. WHILE THE TRAJECTORY ANGLE IS NOT THE BEST FOR
UPSLOPE...AS 850 MB WINDS INCREASE...EVEN A COMPONENT TO UPSLOPE
WILL HELP MAINTAIN SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN AT LEAST THIS
REGION.
FORECAST SURFACE BASED LIFTED INDICES AND CAPE VALUES OFFER A
SOLUTION THAT ALLOWS FOR THE POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED STORMS ALONG
THE FAR WESTERN PARTS OF THE REGION...AND ALSO THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE REGION. HAVE RE-INTRODUCED THIS
POTENTIAL DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THESE REGIONS.
HOW QUICKLY THE WEDGE ERODES STILL IS A BIG QUESTION FOR TODAY.
HAVE NOT MADE ANY NOTABLE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST REGARDING
THIS IN TERMS OF CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES GIVEN NO ANOMALIES AT
THIS POINT TO SUGGEST THE FORECAST WILL NOT BE ON TRACK.
AS OF 400 AM EDT MONDAY...
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE PROVERBIAL CALM BEFORE THE STORM AS WE
AWAIT THE APPROACH OF THE INTENSE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE
CENTRAL U.S. MODELS ARE IN VERY CLOSE AGREEMENT ON THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY AND THEN
KICKING IT EASTWARD INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY 12Z
TUESDAY. A STRONG (591 DM) UPPER RIDGE WILL BE POSITIONED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST WHICH ALSO PLAY A ROLE IN PREVENTING THE
RAPID EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND ENHANCING THE MOIST
ATLANTIC AND GULF INFLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE SURFACE HIGH
ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST HAT HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR THE COOL-
AIR DAMMING OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE SLOWLY DRIFTING EAST TODAY
ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE DAY TODAY
ERODING THE LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE. HOW QUICKLY THIS WILL OCCUR
TODAY IS ALWAYS A TRICKY ASPECT OF FORECASTING IN THIS AREA WITH
SKY COVER AND HENCE HIGH TEMPERATURES RIDING ON THE OUTCOME.
PICKED A MODEL BLEND FOR HIGH TEMPS BUT EDGED TOWARD SOMEWHAT
SLOWER EROSION WHICH RESULTS IN HIGHS RANGING FROM UPPER 60S NW TO
MID-70S SE AND ALSO FAR WEST WHERE THE WEDGE WILL ERODE MOST
QUICKLY UNDER THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW. H85 WINDS IN THAT
SAME FAR WESTERN AREA (MAINLY TAZEWELL...SMYTH..MERCER COUNTIES)
WILL BE INCREASING FROM NEAR 25 KT EARLY THIS MORNING TO THE 45-50
KT RANGE BY 12Z TUESDAY WITH SOME OF THIS WINDS MIXING DOWN DURING
THE 06-12Z PERIOD. STRONGEST WINDS LIKELY TO BE BEYOND THE 12Z
CUT-OFF FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD WHEN A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED. SCATTERED SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE TODAY AS THE AIR MASS
REMAINS QUITE MOIST AND ANY WEAK IMPULSES WILL BE CAPABLE OF
GENERATING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT MONDAY...
MODELS CONTINUE TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO TIMING OF THE INTENSE
UPPER-LEVEL LOW/TROUGH SLATED TO DEVELOP TODAY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...THEN SPREAD EASTWARD INTO TUE. EACH
MODEL RUN FOR ALL MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW THE ARRIVAL OF THE MAIN
LINE OF INTENSE CONVECTION INTO OUR CWA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...LIKELY OWING TO THE IMPRESSIVE DIGGING/DEVELOPMENT OF THE
SYSTEM IN RESPONSE TO A 125+KT UPPER JET AND 60-70KT LLJ. IN
ESSENCE...THE MAIN LINE OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
IS NEARLY 36 HOURS SLOWER THAN WHAT WAS PROGGED TWO DAYS AGO AT
THIS TIME. NOW...INSTEAD OF A 12Z TUE TIME FRAME...WE ARE LOOKING
AT A 12Z WED TO 00Z THU TIME FRAME FOR THE MAIN EFFECTS.
THUS FOR TUE...THE WEDGE WILL BEGIN TO FINALLY ERODE...BUT AGAIN
NOT LIKELY AS QUICKLY AS THE MODELS WOULD SUGGEST. PERSISTENT
UPSLOPE AND INCREASING SOUTHEAST SFC FLOW WILL RESULT IN A
CONTINUATION OF SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
ALLEGHANY FRONT AND ALONG UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THE
MAIN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MON AND TUE...HOWEVER...WILL BE THAT AS
THE TROUGH DEEPENS IN THE CENTRAL U.S...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL
BRIEFLY AMPLIFY THROUGH THE SE STATES INTO NC/VA. THIS WILL PUT
MUCH OF THE CWA...EAST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT...IN A WARM SECTOR
WHICH SHOULD REDUCE COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION WITH INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. HOWEVER...ANY PERSISTENCE OF THE WEDGE
UNDERNEATH THE UPPER HIGH WILL PROMOTE CONTINUATION OF UPSLOPE
CLOUDS AND LIGHT -SHRA AS NOTED. THUS...HAVE MAINTAINED HIGH CHC
TO LOW LIKELY POPS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES...UPPER SUPPORT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
FAVORABLE...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN AREAS...AND INSTABILITY WILL
BEGIN TO SUPPORT THE MENTION OF TSRA WEST OF I-77 BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
CATEGORICAL POPS ARE IN ORDER FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION
BETWEEN 00Z WED AND 18Z WED WITH A SCENARIO OF A VERY SLOWLY
MOVING NEARLY MERIDIONAL OR SOUTH-NORTH ORIENTED NARROW BAND OF
INTENSE CONVECTION TRANSLATING SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION AS THE
UPPER LOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY BAROTROPIC. IN FACT...IT COULD TAKE
UNTIL LATE WED FOR THE CONVECTION TO REACH EASTERN VA...SO HAVE
THE PERIOD OF CATEGORICAL POPS A GOOD 12 HOURS FROM THAT PREVIOUSLY
INDICATED. INSTABILITY REMAINS MARGINAL...BUT THE VERY STRONG LLJ
AND PROGGED SHEAR ALONG WITH CONVECTIVE MODE SUGGEST A QLCS IS
MOST PROBABLE WITH THIS SYSTEM. THIS WILL YIELD MARGINAL AMOUNTS
OF LIGHTNING...BUT POSSIBLE BOWING SEGMENTS WHICH CAN RESULT IN
LOCALIZED AREAS OF DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY EVEN AN ISOLATED
TORNADO. SPC HAS UPGRADED MUCH OF SW VA INTO A SLIGHT RISK THROUGH
THIS PERIOD...WITH A 5 PERCENT RISK FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA.
THE MAIN THREAT FOR SEVERE WILL BE WITH THE STRONG LLJ TUE
NIGHT/EARLY WED...WITH LESS THREAT FURTHER EAST AS THE JET LIFTS
NORTH OUT OF THE REGION WITH THE UPPER LOW CUTTING OFF AND
BECOMING INCREASINGLY BAROTROPIC.
HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE A THREAT WITH ANY TRAINING OF ECHOES
WITHIN THE SOUTH-NORTH ORIENTED BAND...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING MUCH
PARTS OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...HAVE SEEN
1-2 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE PAST FEW DAYS. PWATS ARE WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE 1.5+ RANGE AS THE CORE OF THE EVENT MOVES
THROUGH. THE FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD THREAT IS ADDRESSED FURTHER IN THE
HYDRO SECTION BELOW.
ANOTHER THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE STRONG WIND GUSTS IN THE
USUAL FAVORED AREAS OF SOUTHEAST WV AND SOUTHWEST VA AS THE LLJ
TRANSLATES THROUGH THE REGION. GIVEN THE DELAYED TIMING OF THIS
TO AFT 12Z TUE WITH A SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER LOW/STRONG LLJ
THE POTENTIAL FOR A HIGH WIND WATCH/WIND ADVISORY WOULD BE DELAYED
UNTIL 3RD PERIOD. FURTHERMORE...MODELS HAVE SHOWN A RELUCTANCE TO
BRING POTENTIAL WINDS GUSTS OF 40-50KTS DOWN TO THE SFC. FEEL THAT
A WIND ADVISORY WILL MOST CERTAINLY BE WARRANTED AND WIND GUSTS
FOR A BRIEF PERIOD MAY REACH HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA IN PARTS
OF MERCER AND TAZEWELL COUNTIES. HOWEVER...NO OTHER OFFICES ARE ON
BOARD WITH A WATCH AND TOO FAR OUT FOR AN ADVISORY...SO NO NPW
WILL BE ISSUED AT THIS POINT. AS WITH THE SEVERE THREAT...WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE THREAT IN THE HWO.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN PROBLEMATIC...FIRST BECAUSE OF LINGERING
EFFECTS OF THE WEDGE AND THEREAFTER BECAUSE OF THE CLOSED...COLD
CORE SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW...CYCLONIC FLOW...AND POTENTIALLY
HIGHLY VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE FROM WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS TO
THE PIEDMONT. HAVE LEANED TOWARD A MODEL BLEND THROUGH THE PERIOD
AS OPPOSED TO HINGING THE TEMPERATURES ON ANY ONE MODEL. TUE
SHOULD YIELD NEAR NORMAL TEMPS WEST TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
EAST...GIVEN EROSION OF THE WEDGE AND STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW. WED
SHOULD ALSO YIELD NEAR MAX TEMPS AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL MIN
TEMPS...AGAIN PRIMARILY BECAUSE OF STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
DEWPOINTS INTO THE 60S EARLY WED...WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID-
OCTOBER. THU...SHOULD SEE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS...ESPECIALLY WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE CLOUDS AND SCT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED.
AGAIN...NO BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED EVEN AFTER THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH 850MB TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE +4 TO +6C
RANGE.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT MONDAY...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP CLOSED
UPPER LOW THROUGH THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK...FINALLY LIFTING OUT
FRI-SAT. SCT SHOWERS WILL PERSIST UNDER/NEAR THE UPPER LOW WITH A
NOTABLE DIURNAL INCREASE AS DAYTIME HEATING CREATES RELATIVELY
STEEP LAPSE RATES UNDER THE COLD CORE LOW. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WILL BE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. A HEALTHY SHORT WAVE IS
PROGGED TO FINALLY LIFT THE UPPER LOW OUT THU AFTERNOON...BUT IN
SO DOING WILL LIKELY BRING THE BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS TO THE
REGION...EVEN INTO THE PIEDMONT.
FOR THE WEEKEND...FINALLY SOME IMPROVING CONDITIONS INDICATED WITH
GREATER POTENTIAL FOR SUNSHINE...EVEN ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. MAINLY
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE LONG RANGE PERIOD WITH
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEMS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA UNTIL
EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED UNDER A
WEAK WARM ADVECTION PATTERN ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BEFORE NEXT
UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROF SCOOTS RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST OUT OF NORTHERN
PLAINS AND INTO NEW ENGLAND LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
BEST DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL
TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE BLACKSBURG FORECAST AREA...SO OTHER THAN A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...ONLY SENSIBLE IMPACT
WILL BE FOR A SLIGHT REINFORCEMENT OF COOLER AIR WITH PASSAGE OF DRY
COOL FRONT...AND POSSIBLY SOME ISOLATED-WIDELY SCATTERED POST
FRONTAL UPSLOPE SHOWERS REDEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN FLANKS OF
THE APPALACHIANS IN SOUTHEASTERN WEST VIRGINIA...MOST NOTABLY IN
WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 630 AM EDT MONDAY...
VARIABLE FLIGHT CONDITIONS LIKELY TO BE THE RULE TODAY AT THE
TERMINALS AS DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE STRUGGLES TO MAINTAIN
THE LOW CLOUDS AND EASTERLY FLOW WHILE THE TROUGH DEVELOPING
OUT WEST BRINGS INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT TRYING TO MIX
DOWN TO THE SURFACE AND SCOUR OUT THE LOW CLOUDS. SHOULD SEE VERY
SLOW IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS/VBSYS AS THIS OCCURS TODAY. UNLIKELY
TO SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF VFR BUT AT LEAST MVFR BY LATER IN THE
DAY OR EVENING. ANY PARTIAL CLEARING THAT TAKES PLACE LATE TODAY
OR OVERNIGHT LIKELY TO BRIEF AS EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS FROM THE
CENTRAL U.S. SYSTEM WILL BE EDGING INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA BY THAT TIME...WHICH MAY ACT TO INHIBIT FOG DEVELOPMENT
TOWARD MORNING.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT A VERY STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER
TROUGH WILL APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. LOOK FOR A
SOUTHERLY 850 MB JET TO REACH 50 TO 70 KTS IN ADVANCE OF THE
SYSTEM. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH PLENTY OF PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED IN ADVANCE AND CONCURRENT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
ON WEDNESDAY...THE FRONT WILL EXIT THE REGION BUT NORTHWEST FLOW
BEHIND THE SYSTEM WILL KEEP UPSLOPE CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF
NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE PARENT UPPER
LOW SETTLES OVER PENNSYLVANIA.
BY FRIDAY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN AS WE TRANSITION
INTO A MORE ZONAL PATTERN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 400 AM EDT MONDAY...
THE UPCOMING EVENT WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT HYDRO COMPONENT WITH
HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED ACROSS ALL RIVER BASINS MAINLY AFTER 12Z
TUESDAY AND PERSISTING INTO EARLY THURSDAY. QPF FROM HPC DURING
THIS PERIOD IS GENERALLY IN THE 2 TO 3 INCH RANGE WITH THE TYPICAL
TERRAIN ENHANCEMENTS. GEFS AND NAEFS ENSEMBLE PRECIPITATION
FORECASTS FROM THE VARIOUS RFCS STILL SHOWING CONSIDERABLE SPREAD
IN THE QPF WITH ANYWHERE FROM 1 TO 5 INCHES IN NEARLY ALL BASINS
BUT SOLUTIONS CLUSTERING MAINLY IN THE 2 TO 2.5 INCH RANGE. THE
RIVER FORECAST ENSEMBLES RESULTING FROM THIS QPF GENERATE A LOT OF
FORECASTS NEAR OR JUST BELOW ACTION STAGE WITH A FEW MEMBERS
REACHING MINOR FLOOD STAGE AND MAYBE ONE OR TWO OUTLIERS AT
MODERATE FLOOD STAGE. SO IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A VERY SERIOUS
RIVER FLOOD EVENT AT THIS POINT BUT CERTAINLY WILL BE WATCHED
CLOSELY. ALSO A FLASH FLOOD THREAT TO CONSIDER AS PWATS REACH 2 TO
3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE MID-OCTOBER KRNK RAOB CLIMATOLOGY BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING RANGING FROM 1.5 TO 1.7 INCHES AT KRNK AND
SOMEWHAT HIGHER AT ROANOKE. WITH THE WIDESPREAD 2 TO 3 INCH
RAINFALL AND EMBEDDED CONVECTION THERE WILL LIKELY BE ISOLATED 4
TO 5 INCH AMOUNTS ACROSS A FEW SMALL BASINS AND POCKETS OF RAPID
RESPONSE FLOODING SEEM TO BE A REASONABLE BET. HPC CURRENTLY
SHOWING A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN EXCESS OF FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE IN THE FAR WESTERN CWA BY 12Z TUE AND FOR MOST THE
REMAINDER 12Z TUE TO 12Z WED. AN ADDITIONAL FACTOR IN THE FLOOD
POTENTIAL IS THE LOW FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES RESULTING FROM
RAINFALL SO FAR IN OCTOBER WHICH HAS REACHED 4 TO 6 INCHES IN
PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE AND NEW RIVER BASINS.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PC
NEAR TERM...DS/PC
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...RAB/WERT
AVIATION...PC
HYDROLOGY...PC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
921 PM CDT TUE OCT 14 2014
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
AND NEW INFORMATION ADDED TO UPDATE SECTION
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 912 PM CDT TUE OCT 14 2014
THE REDEVELOPMENT OF THE PCPN THIS EVENING HAS BEEN OCCURRING
FARTHER W THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED. JUST ADJUSTED THE FCST
ACCORDINGLY...BUT STILL THINK THE MORE PRESISTENT PCPN LATER IN
THE NGT WL BE MORE IN ERN WI. DESPITE THE STG WINDS ALOFT ABV THE
BAY...THE FLOW IS TOO NLY AND LOWEST LAYERS OF THE ATM TOO STABLE
TO ALLOW THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO REALLY MIX DOWN INTO THE
GRB/FOX VALLEY AREAS. ADJUSTED WINDS DOWN IN THOSE AREAS...AND
INSTEAD NOW HAVE A PATTERN WHERE THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE IN NRN
DOOR COUNTY...MORE TYPICAL OF A NNW FLOW REGIME.
UPDATED GRIDS JUST SENT. WL REPLACE THE SPS WITH A NOW AND FRESHEN
UP THE HWO. THOSE WL BE OUT ASAP
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 626 PM CDT TUE OCT 14 2014
THE STG WINDS WITH THE APPARENT GRAVITY WV HAVE SHIFTED OFF TO
THE N OF THE AREA. WINDS ACRS ERN WI HAVE SETTLED DOWN SOME...BUT
STILL GETTING GUSTS TO 36 KTS AT CBRW3...29 KTS AT SUE...AND 28
KTS AT SGNW3. WHERE WINDS HAVE REALLY DIED DOWN IS ALONG THE WRN
SHORE OF THE BAY FM OCONTO TO GRB THROUGH THE FOX VALLEY. THIS
LULL IS LIKELY DUE TO A REORIENTATION OF THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
TO FAVORING MORE DUE NLY AS OPPOSED TO NELY FLOW. GIVEN THE
RELATIVELY MILD TEMPS AND RESULTING LOW-LEVEL STABILITY...THERE
IS PROBABLY TOO MUCH SHEAR TO ALLOW THE STG NELY FLOW THAT IS
OCCURRING IN THE 925 MB-850 MB LAYER OVER THE BAY TO GET DOWN TO
THE SFC. BUT THAT MAY NOT CONT ALL NGT. THE GRADIENT WL TILT BACK
A BIT MORE TO FAVORING NNE FLOW LATER THIS EVENING. IN
ADDITION...BAND OF PCPN SLOWLY INCRG OVER LAKE MICHIGAN SHOULD
GET PULLED BACK INTO THE AREA...WHICH MAY HELP MIX THE STRONGER
WINDS DOWN TO THE SFC. WL STICK WITH THE WINDIER FCST FOR NOW AND
SEE HOW THINGS GO THE NEXT COUPLE HRS BEFORE SCALING BACK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 444 PM CDT TUE OCT 14 2014
HAVE RECEIVED NUMEROUS REPORTS OF DOWNED TREES AND POWER OUTAGES
FM MAINLY E-C WI WITH THE SURGE OF STG NE WINDS THAT OCCURRED THIS
AFTN. WE/VE SEEN SURGES OF STG NE WINDS AHEAD OF CYCLONES IN THE
PAST...BUT IN MOST CASES THE STG WINDS SURGED SWWD DOWN THE LAKE
AND BAY AND WERE DUE PRIMARILY TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ITSELF AND
MIXING INTO STG NELY FLOW AT 925-850 MB. THIS TIME THE STRONG
WINDS SURGED NWD ACRS THE AREA...AN INDICATION THAT SOMETHING A
LITTLE DIFFERENT WAS OCCURRING.
MESOPLOTS INDICATED STG 1-HOUR PRESSURE FALL CENTER LIFTG NWD
THROUGH ERN WI AT THE TIME THE STG WINDS WERE OCCURRING...WHICH
WOULD BE CONSISTENT WITH A GRAVITY WAVE GENERATED BY STG UPR SPEED
MAX HEADING UP THE ERN SIDE OF THE SHARP UPR TROF ACRS THE RGN.
THAT ALSO FITS WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OCCURRING NR THE BACK EDGE
OF THE BAND OF PCPN MOVG THROUGH THE AREA AT THAT TIME.
THE STRONGEST WINDS WERE NOW IN THE NE CORNER OF THE FCST
AREA...SO THE EFFECTS OF THE FEATURE SHOULD PUSH OUT OF THE AREA
IN THE NEXT HR OR SO. HOWEVER...NOW WE ARE IN A MORE TYPICAL SITN
WHERE STG NE WINDS IN THE 925-850 MB LAYER WERE IN PLACE OVER THE
BAY AND WRN LAKE MICHIGAN. RAP ACTUALLY EDGES THE 925 MB WINDS UP
TO 50 KTS OVER THE BAY ARND MIDNIGHT BEFORE THEY START BACK DOWN.
LOW-LEVEL STABILITY IS NOT AS FAVORABLE FOR MIXING AS IT COULD BE
AS AIR TEMPS ARE FAIRLY MILD. BUT...STILL THINK THIS SET-UP WL
KEEP FAIRLY STG/GUSTY WINDS GOING OVER ERN WI THROUGH THE
EVENING...THOUGH PEAK WIND SPEEDS SHOULD NOT BE AS HIGH AS THIS
AFTN. PCPN IS ALSO LIKELY TO INCR AGAIN OVER ERN WI AS WE HEAD
THROUGH THE EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT TUE OCT 14 2014
A BAND OF SHOWERS MOVED ACROSS NORTHEAST WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON.
ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE LINE OF SHOWERS...GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS
WERE REPORTED ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN FOR AN HOUR OR
TWO. NUMEROUS TREES OR TREE BRANCHES WERE DOWN ACROSS THE REGION
ALONG WITH POWER OUTAGES. THIS BAND OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE NORTH OF
THE AREA BY THIS EVENING.
FOLLOWED THE HRR FOR PRECIPITATION TRENDS TONIGHT. THIS MODEL
WOULD SUGGEST A BREAK/LULL IN THE ACTION EARLY THIS EVENING WITH
INCREASING CHANCES AS THE EVENING PROGRESS AS SHORTWAVE PIVOTS
AROUND THE UPPER LOW. WILL HAVE LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS IN THE FAR
EAST WITH LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FAR WEST LATE
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. DID LOWER MIN TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
FAR NORTH TONIGHT WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME CLEARING LATE THIS
TONIGHT. WARMEST TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE ACROSS THE WEST
WHERE MORE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT TUE OCT 14 2014
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE TRENDED BETTER TO A SOLUTION WITH
RESPECT TO THE DEPARTURE OF THE UPPER LOW SYSTEM FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WILL DIMINISH POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AND
START OUT WITH A BRIEF DRIER PERIOD THURSDAY AS A WEAK RIDGE
DRIFTS OVER THE STATE.
THE NEXT SHORT WAVE WITH A COOLER CANADIAN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL DROP INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION LATER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. TEMPS ARE MARGINALLY COOL ENOUGH FOR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
MIXED WITH THE RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE FAR NORTH. WILL LEAVE OUT THE
MENTION FOR NOW SINCE DEALING WITH LOWER END POP CHANCES.
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SLIDES OVER LATER SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY...FOLLOWED WITH ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
PROGS ARE STILL SUGGESTING THE UPPER RIDGE TO BEGIN TO BUILDING INTO
THE AREA AFTER NEXT MONDAY FOR A DRIER AND MILDER PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 912 PM CDT TUE OCT 14 2014
LARGE STORM SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING THE AREA FOR A COUPLE
DAYS WL LINGER OVERNIGHT...BUT BEGIN TO LOSE ITS GRIP ON THE NW
PART OF THE AREA. ANOTHER RAIN BAND WAS DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA.
THAT WAS AFFECTING PORTIONS OF CENTRAL WI NOW...BUT SHOULD IMPACT
MAINLY THE E LATER TNGT. CIGS IN ERN WI WL STAY MAINLY IN THE VFR
RANGE...WTIH MTW A BIT LOWER AT TIMES. THE W WL SEE A MIX OF MVFR
AND VFR CIGS OVERNIGHT.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE.........SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....ECKBERG
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
910 PM CDT TUE OCT 14 2014
.UPDATE...
DRIER AIR WORKING IN BEHIND INVERTED TROUGH AS SECONDARY
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS TAKES PLACE OVER WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN HAS
ERODED PCPN AS IT ROTATES AROUND MAIN LOW CENTERED OVER EAST-
CENTRAL IL. HAVE REDUCED QPF IN NW CWA AND MAY HAVE TO LOWER POPS
EVEN MORE THERE WITH MAINLY AREAS OF LIGHT DRIZZLE BEING
REPORTED...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AT BEST PER LATEST
RUNS OF THE HI-RES/RAPID UPDATE MODELS. EASTERN CWA STILL HAS
BETTER CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
&&
.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...
DRIER AIR WORKING IN BEHIND INVERTED TROUGH AS SECONDARY
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS TAKES PLACE OVER WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN HAS
ERODED PCPN AS IT ROTATES AROUND MAIN LOW CENTERED OVER EAST-
CENTRAL IL. CIGS HAVE ALSO RISEN OVER THE WESTERN CWA WITH POCKETS
OF MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 2K AND 3K FT REACHING KMSN. WILL BRING MVFR
CIGS FOR A TIME TO KMSN...BUT WILL HAVE PREVAILING IFR RETURNING
AFTER 06Z AS LOW-LVL RH FORECASTS AND CLOUD COVER PROBABILITIES
HAVE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PUSHING BACK TO THE WEST AROUND THE SFC LOW
AS IT CONSOLIDATES OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. TIGHT GRADIENT AROUND LOW
WILL KEEP NORTH WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT
HOURS.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR-GALE FORCE GUSTS THIS EVENING AROUND 30 KTS WILL SLOWLY EASE
AFTER 03Z AS 1000 FT WINDS LOWER TO AROUND 25 KTS BY 06Z IN THE
SOUTH...AND 12Z WED IN THE NORTHERN ZONES. CURRENT DIMINISHING
TREND TO WINDS IN FORECAST WILL ALLOW WAVES TO SUBSIDE BELOW
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS BY LATE WED AFTERNOON END TIME...THOUGH LATEST
NAM HAS A BRIEF RISE TO NORTH WINDS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON SO LATER
SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO LOOK OVER COMPLETE 00Z DATA SET FOR POSSIBLE
EXTENSION IF HIGHER THAN EXPECTED AFTERNOON WINDS HOLD WAVE
HEIGHTS UP.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 PM CDT TUE OCT 14 2014/
TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
THE OCCLUDED SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL IL. THIS SYSTEM IS
CAUSING SEVERAL COMPLEX WEATHER FEATURES OVER SOUTHERN WI WHERE THE
SURFACE/925MB FRONT EXTENDS NORTHWARD FROM THE LOW. ALL BUT FAR
SOUTHEAST WI NEAR KENOSHA HAVE SWITCHED OVER TO NORTHERLY WINDS WITH
THIS FRONT. THE WINDS ARE SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AND INCREASING JUST
BEHIND THE FRONT. THE HIGHEST WINDS ARE ACCELERATING DOWN THE
LAKESHORE FASTER THAN JUST INLAND.
ANOTHER THING THAT HAPPENED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WAS STRONG WINDS
DEVELOPED IN THE WAKE OF PRECIP ENDING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. WINDS
GUST TO 50 MPH IN SHEBOYGAN AROUND 1 PM WITH THIS FEATURE. THE WIND
GUSTS HAVE COME DOWN TO 35-40 MPH LATE THIS AFTERNOON... AND WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING.
12Z MODELS CAME IN WITH SLIGHTLY LESS PRECIP THAN PREVIOUS RUNS FOR
TONIGHT. THE MESOSCALE MODELS SUPPORT THE LIGHTER SOLUTION FOR
TONIGHT. THE HRRR HAS HAD A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON PRECIP COVERAGE
ALL DAY. THE NEXT BETTER-DEFINED ROUND OF RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH A
SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW THAT IS PROGGED TO SWING
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE MKX AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT THROUGH 4 AM. THE
EAST HALF OF THE MKX AREA WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW AND SURFACE LOW DRIFT THRUOGH INDIANA AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY
CONTINUES TO ROTATE AROUND THEM THROUGH SOUTHEAST WI. EXPECTING
COOLER TEMPS WEDNESDAY THAN WHAT THEY WERE TODAY... WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 50S. EXPECT BRISK NORTH WINDS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20-23 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
BROAD AND DOMINATING UPPER LOW CIRCULATION SLOWLY SHIFTS INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY THIS PERIOD. SOME DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO HOW
QUICK SE WI EXITS THE INFLUENCE OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE
NORTHWEST WIDE OF THIS CIRCULATION...BUT FOR THE MOST PART LOOK
LIKE MIDDAY THURSDAY AND INTO THE AFTERNOON...THE MID LEVEL
RIDGING TAKES HOLD. WILL LINGER SHRA CHANCES INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BUT EVEN WITH THE NEW TAM COMING AROUND TO A DRIER SCENARIO
THURSDAY...WILL GO THE DRY ROUTE. THE TAM HANGS ONTO MORE LVL RH
INTO THURSDAY WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF MORE AGGRESSIVE ON CLEARING
THINGS OUT. 925 TEMPS AVERAGE 9-12C SO ANY SUN WOULD ALLOW TEMPS
TO NUDGE INTO THE LOW 60S.
FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SHORTWAVE TREKS TO OUR NORTH WITH LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE
POSITIONED INTO SE WI EARLY IN THE DAY. LOW LEVEL COLD AVECTION
RAMPS UP A BIT ON INCREASING NW WINDS. CONSENSUS OF MODELS IS TO
KEEP ANY PRECIP TO OUR NORTH. 12Z ECMWF HAS SAGGED SOME QPF
FURTHER FRIDAY NIGHT BUT FOR THE MOST PART THIS IS AN OUTLIER.
SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY QUIET NORTHWEST FLOW WITH SURFACE HIGH MOVING
A BITY CLOSER FROM THE PLAINS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE TRENDS WITH
THE ECMWF SHOWING A WETTER LOOK BUT GFS/GEM BOTH DERY. INFLUENCE
OF THE LOW LEVEL COOL POOL IN PLACE WITH 925 TEMPS DOWN TO 3-5C.
SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING INFLUENCE OF
SHORTWAVE DIVING INTO THE PLAINS. SOME DIFFERENCES ON HOW
AMPLIFIED THIS FEATURE WILL BE THOUGH ECMWF AND GEM SHOW A FAIRLY
DECENT PORT WHILE THE GFS IS WEAKER. 12Z ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF A
BIT ON BRINGING PRECIS INTO WESTERN CWA BEFORE THE DAY IS OUT.
FOR NOW WENT WITH THE POPS WHICH HAS A SLIGHT CHANCE INTO THE
WEST. MUCH OF THE AREA LOOKS DRY WITH POTENTIAL FOR INCREASING
CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE WAVE AND WITH WAN KICKING IN. LATER SHIFTS
MAY BE ABLE TO ELIMINATE THIS POP IF THE DRY TREND BECOMES
CONSISTENT.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW
LOTS OF MODEL VARIABILITY THIS PERIOD WITH BOTH THE GFS AND GEM
SHOWING A STRONGER WAVE WITH BIG TIMING DIFFERENCES...WHILE THE
ECMWF SHOWING A WEAKER POSITIVE TILT WAVE WITH LITTLE OR NO
PRECIS. HAVE KEPT POPS IN PLACE FOR NOW BUT IF WEAKER SOLUTION
OF THE ECMWF BECOMES THE PREVAILING IDEA THEN POP REDUCTION OR
REMOVAL WOULD BECOME NECESSARY.
TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT OF NORTHWEST ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND
THE PRONOUNCED UPPER RIDGE BUILDING THROUGH THE PLAINS. LARGE
SURFACE HIGH LOOKS TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH
AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS ILLINOIS AND INDIANA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH THE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN. GUSTY NORTH WINDS IN THE WAKE OF A FRONT WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE NIGHT. HIGHEST GUSTS WILL BE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. EXPECT WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS AT
TIMES.
EXPECT IFR CIGS THROUGH THE NIGHT IN SOUTHEAST WI. SOUTH CENTRAL
WI...MSN... COULD SEE CIGS RISE TO 1000-1500 FEET JUST PRIOR TO 12Z
WED. EXPECT SOUTHEAST WI CIGS TO LIFT TO 1000-1500 FT AFTER 12Z THEN
ABOVE 2000 FT BY WED AFTERNOON. THIS IS MORE PESSIMISTIC THAN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST/ 18Z TAF.
SHOWERS OVER FAR SOUTHERN AND WESTERN WI WILL MOVE OUT THIS EVENING.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS IS LIKELY NEAR SHEBOYGAN AROUND MIDNIGHT...
SPREADING DOWN THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES THROUGH EARLY MORNING.
MARINE...
NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF A FRONT WERE EXCEEDING GALE FORCE
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND ARE NOW DROPPING DOWN BELOW THAT LEVEL. A
FEW WIND GUSTS COULD STILL REACH GALE FORCE THIS EVENING FROM PORT
WASHINGTON SOUTH TO KENOSHA AS THE FRONT MAKES ITS WAY DOWN THE
LAKE.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS
TO 25 KNOTS. THESE WILL PERSIST THROUGH WED AFTERNOON.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ643>646.
&&
$$
UPDATE...REM
TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...COLLAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
639 PM CDT TUE OCT 14 2014
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
AND NEW INFORMATION ADDED TO UPDATE SECTION
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 626 PM CDT TUE OCT 14 2014
THE STG WINDS WITH THE APPARENT GRAVITY WV HAVE SHIFTED OFF TO
THE N OF THE AREA. WINDS ACRS ERN WI HAVE SETTLED DOWN SOME...BUT
STILL GETTING GUSTS TO 36 KTS AT CBRW3...29 KTS AT SUE...AND 28
KTS AT SGNW3. WHERE WINDS HAVE REALLY DIED DOWN IS ALONG THE WRN
SHORE OF THE BAY FM OCONTO TO GRB THROUGH THE FOX VALLEY. THIS
LULL IS LIKELY DUE TO A REORIENTATION OF THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
TO FAVORING MORE DUE NLY AS OPPOSED TO NELY FLOW. GIVEN THE
RELATIVELY MILD TEMPS AND RESULTING LOW-LEVEL STABILITY...THERE
IS PROBABLY TOO MUCH SHEAR TO ALLOW THE STG NELY FLOW THAT IS
OCCURRING IN THE 925 MB-850 MB LAYER OVER THE BAY TO GET DOWN TO
THE SFC. BUT THAT MAY NOT CONT ALL NGT. THE GRADIENT WL TILT BACK
A BIT MORE TO FAVORING NNE FLOW LATER THIS EVENING. IN
ADDITION...BAND OF PCPN SLOWLY INCRG OVER LAKE MICHIGAN SHOULD
GET PULLED BACK INTO THE AREA...WHICH MAY HELP MIX THE STRONGER
WINDS DOWN TO THE SFC. WL STICK WITH THE WINDIER FCST FOR NOW AND
SEE HOW THINGS GO THE NEXT COUPLE HRS BEFORE SCALING BACK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 444 PM CDT TUE OCT 14 2014
HAVE RECEIVED NUMEROUS REPORTS OF DOWNED TREES AND POWER OUTAGES
FM MAINLY E-C WI WITH THE SURGE OF STG NE WINDS THAT OCCURRED THIS
AFTN. WE/VE SEEN SURGES OF STG NE WINDS AHEAD OF CYCLONES IN THE
PAST...BUT IN MOST CASES THE STG WINDS SURGED SWWD DOWN THE LAKE
AND BAY AND WERE DUE PRIMARILY TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ITSELF AND
MIXING INTO STG NELY FLOW AT 925-850 MB. THIS TIME THE STRONG
WINDS SURGED NWD ACRS THE AREA...AN INDICATION THAT SOMETHING A
LITTLE DIFFERENT WAS OCCURRING.
MESOPLOTS INDICATED STG 1-HOUR PRESSURE FALL CENTER LIFTG NWD
THROUGH ERN WI AT THE TIME THE STG WINDS WERE OCCURRING...WHICH
WOULD BE CONSISTENT WITH A GRAVITY WAVE GENERATED BY STG UPR SPEED
MAX HEADING UP THE ERN SIDE OF THE SHARP UPR TROF ACRS THE RGN.
THAT ALSO FITS WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OCCURRING NR THE BACK EDGE
OF THE BAND OF PCPN MOVG THROUGH THE AREA AT THAT TIME.
THE STRONGEST WINDS WERE NOW IN THE NE CORNER OF THE FCST
AREA...SO THE EFFECTS OF THE FEATURE SHOULD PUSH OUT OF THE AREA
IN THE NEXT HR OR SO. HOWEVER...NOW WE ARE IN A MORE TYPICAL SITN
WHERE STG NE WINDS IN THE 925-850 MB LAYER WERE IN PLACE OVER THE
BAY AND WRN LAKE MICHIGAN. RAP ACTUALLY EDGES THE 925 MB WINDS UP
TO 50 KTS OVER THE BAY ARND MIDNIGHT BEFORE THEY START BACK DOWN.
LOW-LEVEL STABILITY IS NOT AS FAVORABLE FOR MIXING AS IT COULD BE
AS AIR TEMPS ARE FAIRLY MILD. BUT...STILL THINK THIS SET-UP WL
KEEP FAIRLY STG/GUSTY WINDS GOING OVER ERN WI THROUGH THE
EVENING...THOUGH PEAK WIND SPEEDS SHOULD NOT BE AS HIGH AS THIS
AFTN. PCPN IS ALSO LIKELY TO INCR AGAIN OVER ERN WI AS WE HEAD
THROUGH THE EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT TUE OCT 14 2014
A BAND OF SHOWERS MOVED ACROSS NORTHEAST WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON.
ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE LINE OF SHOWERS...GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS
WERE REPORTED ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN FOR AN HOUR OR
TWO. NUMEROUS TREES OR TREE BRANCHES WERE DOWN ACROSS THE REGION
ALONG WITH POWER OUTAGES. THIS BAND OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE NORTH OF
THE AREA BY THIS EVENING.
FOLLOWED THE HRR FOR PRECIPITATION TRENDS TONIGHT. THIS MODEL
WOULD SUGGEST A BREAK/LULL IN THE ACTION EARLY THIS EVENING WITH
INCREASING CHANCES AS THE EVENING PROGRESS AS SHORTWAVE PIVOTS
AROUND THE UPPER LOW. WILL HAVE LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS IN THE FAR
EAST WITH LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FAR WEST LATE
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. DID LOWER MIN TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
FAR NORTH TONIGHT WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME CLEARING LATE THIS
TONIGHT. WARMEST TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE ACROSS THE WEST
WHERE MORE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT TUE OCT 14 2014
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE TRENDED BETTER TO A SOLUTION WITH
RESPECT TO THE DEPARTURE OF THE UPPER LOW SYSTEM FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WILL DIMINISH POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AND
START OUT WITH A BRIEF DRIER PERIOD THURSDAY AS A WEAK RIDGE
DRIFTS OVER THE STATE.
THE NEXT SHORT WAVE WITH A COOLER CANADIAN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL DROP INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION LATER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. TEMPS ARE MARGINALLY COOL ENOUGH FOR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
MIXED WITH THE RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE FAR NORTH. WILL LEAVE OUT THE
MENTION FOR NOW SINCE DEALING WITH LOWER END POP CHANCES.
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SLIDES OVER LATER SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY...FOLLOWED WITH ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
PROGS ARE STILL SUGGESTING THE UPPER RIDGE TO BEGIN TO BUILDING INTO
THE AREA AFTER NEXT MONDAY FOR A DRIER AND MILDER PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 626 PM CDT TUE OCT 14 2014
LARGE STORM SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING THE AREA FOR OVER 36
HRS WL MAINTAIN IT/S GRIP ON ERN WI...BUT BEGIN TO LOSE IT/S GRIP
ON THE WEST. EXPECT ANOTHER RAIN BAND TO WORK INTO THE E THIS
EVENING...THAT WL KEEP CIGS LOW AND PRIMARILY IN THE BOTTOM OF THE
MVFR RANGE. NLY WINDS WL BE FEEDING DRIER AIR IN AT LOW-
LEVELS...AND THAT SHOULD KEEP CIGS FM GETTING TOO LOW. IT/S A
TOUGHER CALL ON HOW FAR W LOWER CIGS WL GET. BEST GUESS NOW IS
THAT SOME LOWER CIGS WL AFFECT WRN TAF SITES AT TIMEST TNGT.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE.........SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....ECKBERG
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RENO NV
307 AM PDT WED OCT 15 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG WINDS WILL END THIS MORNING AS A COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS
WESTERN NEVADA, BUT BRISK WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. SCATTERED RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 THIS MORNING. DRY AND
WARM CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND. STRONG WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE WEST COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS HAS REACHED THE WEST COAST WITH
INCREASING INSTABILITY LEADING TO DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWER BANDS
AND ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. LATEST
GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE HRRR MODEL SPREAD THESE BANDS OF SHOWERS
INTO NORTHEAST CA AND NORTHWEST NV AFTER 4 AM AND CONTINUING
THROUGH 9 AM. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE SPOTTY BUT BRIEF BURSTS OF
HEAVIER RAIN COULD BRING A QUICK 0.10 INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL
FROM WESTERN LASSEN COUNTY SOUTHWARD TO NEAR TRUCKEE AND THE
CALIFORNIA SIDE OF THE TAHOE BASIN. PARTS OF THE SURPRISE VALLEY
AND NORTHWEST NV MAY RECEIVE UP TO 0.10 INCH OR RAINFALL.
SNOW LEVELS THIS MORNING SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE 6500-7000 FOOT
RANGE NORTH AND WEST OF PORTOLA, AND AROUND 7500 FEET ALONG THE
SIERRA CREST WEST OF TAHOE. HOWEVER, IF A HEAVIER SHOWER PASSES
OVER SOME OF THE SIERRA PASSES INCLUDING YUBA, DONNER AND ECHO
SUMMITS, WET SNOW MAY BRIEFLY MIX IN BUT ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT
EXPECTED ON ROADS.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF WESTERN NEVADA, SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MAY BLOW
INTO THE FOOTHILLS AROUND RENO AND CARSON CITY. MEANWHILE, THE
ACTIVITY OVER NORTHWEST NV WEAKENS AS IT MOVES ACROSS PERSHING
COUNTY NORTH OF LOVELOCK. BY THIS AFTERNOON, VERY LITTLE
PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE VERY MUCH THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO COLD
AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT, AND WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER OVER
MOST OF THE REGION.
AS FOR THE WIND EVENT, STRONG GUSTS WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS AS THE RIDGE WINDS MIX DOWN INTO THE LEE SIDE VALLEYS.
GUSTS BRIEFLY EDGING INTO HIGH WIND CRITERIA ARE STILL POSSIBLE
IN THE ADVISORY AREAS THROUGH 6 AM. WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON
SHOULD STAY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT REMAIN BRISK WITH GUSTS
IN THE 30-40 MPH RANGE BEFORE DIMINISHING BY EARLY EVENING.
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL SPREAD AREAS OF
MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVERHEAD WHICH SHOULD LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING,
AND PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING BELOW FREEZING AT NIGHT IN
AREAS WHICH HAVE YET TO SEE A FREEZE SO FAR THIS FALL. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-UPPER 60S, THEN EDGE UPWARD BY A
FEW DEGREES ON FRIDAY. THESE HIGHS ARE ASSUMING CLOUD COVER WILL
PARTIALLY OBSCURE THE SUN DURING EACH AFTERNOON.
A SPLITTING TROUGH REACHING THE SIERRA LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT MAY PRODUCE A FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS IN NORTHEAST CA AND FAR
NORTHWEST NV, BUT LATEST TRENDS ARE SHOWING A DIMINISHING RAIN
POTENTIAL WITH THIS TROUGH. MJD
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND. DEEP
TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC ALONG 140W WITH A RIDGE OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AS A JET DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PACIFIC ALONG 45N. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW MOISTURE AND ENERGY FROM THE TROUGH TO REACH THE SIERRA AND
WESTERN NEVADA BY MONDAY.
FOR THE WEEKEND, CONDITIONS WILL BE WARM AND DRY WITH LIGHT WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW 70S FOR THE NEVADA VALLEYS WITH 60S
FOR THE SIERRA.
WINDS ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE MONDAY AS THE TROUGH REACHES THE
WEST COAST, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG WIND EVENT. PEAK GUSTS
COULD REACH 40-50 MPH WITH 60+ MPH IN WIND PRONE LOCATIONS ALONG
HIGHWAY 395. AS USUAL WITH STRONG WIND EVENTS, MAIN IMPACTS ARE TO
TRAVEL, AVIATION, BOATING AND FIRE WEATHER. MODELS DIFFER ON HOW
MUCH MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN SIERRA, BUT THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS OR LIGHT RAIN FROM
THE WEST SHORE OF TAHOE NORTHWARD TO LASSEN COUNTY.
A SECOND WAVE MAY REACH THE AREA FOR TUESDAY, BUT THE DIFFERENCES IN
THE MODELS ARE TOO GREAT TO HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE IN ANY POTENTIAL
FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. BRONG
&&
.AVIATION...
STRONG WIND EVENT AT KRNO WILL BEGIN TO EASE UP EARLY THIS MORNING
AS THE JET ENERGY AND COLD FRONT PASS THROUGH WESTERN NEVADA. WINDS
WILL WEAKEN AS THEY SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST, BUT GUSTS AS
HIGH AS 30 KTS MAY PERSIST THROUGH 03Z THIS EVENING.
LIGHT RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW WILL MOVE ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF
KTRK-KLOL THIS MORNING. IN THE NORTHERN SIERRA TO WESTERN LASSEN
COUNTY, MVFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCUREMENTS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH 18Z.
SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST FOR THE WEEKEND. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT THURSDAY TO SUNDAY. A STRONG WIND EVENT IS POSSIBLE
MONDAY AS THE NEXT TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WEST COAST. BRONG
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING NVZ002-003.
CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING CAZ072-073.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1135 PM MDT TUE OCT 14 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 111 PM MDT TUE OCT 14 2014
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW BLOCKY
RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN ACROSS THE US...WITH AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER
THE WESTER US THE DOMINATE FEATURE FOR OUR CWA. AT THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IS IN PLACE OVER OUR CWA WITH A WEAK LEE TROUGH BEGINNING
TO DEVELOP OVER COLORADO.
DUE TO THE STRONG RIDGE KEEPING CONDITIONS CLEAR AND DRY ACROSS OUR
CWA...PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS ON MODERATING TEMPS AND
POTENTIAL FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY.
SOUTHERLY GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO TIGHTEN AS LEE TROUGH CONTINUES TO
DEEPEN WEDNESDAY...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING AROUND 25 MPH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPS SHOULD WARM TO THE UPPER
70S...POSSIBLY THE LOWER 80S. MODELS ARE TENDING TO ADVECT HIGHER
TD VALUES NORTH WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW...HOWEVER IT APPEARS THE
BETTER MOISTURE SHOULD BE CUT OFF TO THE SOUTH AT LEAST THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE AFTERNOON. MIXING HEIGHTS ARE SOMEWHAT LIMITED
BY ELEVATED INVERSION...HOWEVER WE SHOULD STILL SEE TD VALUES MIX
TO THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S IN THE WEST. RESULT WOULD BE RH VALUES
RIGHT ABOVE 15 PERCENT. AFTER COORDINATION WITH PARTNERS CURRENT
FUELS SHOULD SUPPORT EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH FOR ALL OF OUR CWA
EXCEPT FOR GREELEY AND WICHITA COUNTIES. CONDITIONS WILL BE
CLOSE TO CRITERIA...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN A 3HR CROSSOVER OF
WIND/RH IS LOW SO A RED FLAG WARNING IS PLANNED DURING THIS UPDATE
WEDNESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 PM MDT TUE OCT 14 2014
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD IS NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY. A BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN FOR
THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD SHALL LEAD TO LITTLE TO NO HAZARDOUS
WEATHER THROUGHOUT.
BEGINNING WITH THURSDAY...A STRONG...FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PASSES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS TROUGH ALSO FORCES A WEAK COLD
FRONT THROUGH. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS TROUGH SHALL BE A SLIGHT
COOLING OF TEMPERATURES...ALBEIT REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL...DRIER AIR
AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS. FIRE WEATHER MAY BECOME A CONCERN FOR
THURSDAY IF TEMPERATURES ARE WARMER AND DEWPOINTS LOWER THAN
CURRENTLY ADVERTISED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO BRING SOME CONCERN THAT
DRIER AIR ALOFT COULD MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE AND BRING MUCH LOWER
HUMIDITIES. CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
NEAR 20 PERCENT AND WIND GUSTS 30-35 MPH. MADE SOME CALLS TO LOCAL
FIRE WEATHER PARTNERS AND CONSENSUS SEEMS TO BE FUELS ARE CURED
ENOUGH TO CARRY A FIRE THREAT. FOR NOW...WILL MENTION CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE HWO BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING
A WATCH.
FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...EXPECTING QUIET WEATHER FOR THE MOST
PART. FORECAST GUIDANCE IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A SYSTEM MOVING
IN SUNDAY. THE SYSTEM IS FAIRLY WEAK AND MOST GUIDANCE ANTICIPATES A
FURTHER SOUTH TRACK AND SLOWER PACE COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. WHILE A
SHOWER OR TWO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT COMPLETELY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...DID NOT THINK THAT A PRECIP MENTION WAS REQUIRED.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES LOOKS TO BREAK
DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THIS HAPPENS...A TROUGH REPLACES THE RIDGE
AND BRINGS SOUTH WINDS AND HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT...PRIMING THE
AREA FOR POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION BY MID-WEEK. THIS SYSTEM REPRESENTS
THE NEXT BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AND POTENTIALLY A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS IF TEMPERATURES/INSTABILITY ARE HIGH ENOUGH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM MDT TUE OCT 14 2014
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE 6Z TAFS. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT
WILL BECOME GUSTY WEDNESDAY LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
DECLINE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...JTL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
414 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2014
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW SLOW MOVING CLOSED
LO OVER IL WITH 110KT H3 JET MAX MOVING N THRU LOWER MI TO THE E OF
THIS FEATURE. THERE IS AN AREA OF RAIN OVER CENTRAL UPR MI UNDER
SHARP SFC-H85 FRONTAL ZN/CYC FLOW...SOME UPR DVGC/DEEP LYR QVECTOR
CNVGC IN THE EXIT REGION OF THIS JET STREAK AND CLOSER TO DEEPER
MSTR DEPICTED ON THE 00Z GRB RAOB...WHERE 00Z PWAT WAS CLOSE TO AN
INCH OR 165 PCT OF NORMAL. BUT FAIRLY DRY LYR BTWN H7-9 SHOWN ON THE
00Z APX RAOB APPEARS TO BE LIMITING THE PCPN COVERAGE FARTHER TO THE
E...WHERE CLD TOP TEMPS WERE WARMING PER IR STLT IMAGERY DESPITE THE
PRESENCE OF THE HEALTHY DYNAMIC FORCING THERE AS WELL. NE WINDS ARE
GUSTING AS HI AS ARND 35 MPH OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL UPR MI UNDER
THE TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT IN THAT AREA. OVER THE FAR W...SKIES ARE
MOCLR CLOSER TO SFC RDG AXIS RUNNING FM NW ONTARIO SWWD THRU MN AND
VERY DRY AIRMASS SHOWN ON THE 00Z INL RAOB. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS
NEAR IWD...WHERE SOME UPSLOPE LO CLDS HAVE DVLPD.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM WL BE FOCUSED ON POPS
ASSOCIATED WITH LEFT EXIT FORCING OF JET STREAK IN LOWER MI.
TODAY...ALTHOUGH THE DRY AIR SHOWN ON THE 00Z APX RAOB IS LIMITING
THE RA COVERAGE OVER THE ERN CWA EARLY THIS MRNG...MOST OF THE
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS AN AREA OF HIER H85 DEWPTS WRAPPING WWD
INTO THE E HALF OF UPR MI BY 09Z. THE INTERACTION BTWN THIS INCRSG
MSTR AND DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC...UPR DVGC AND H85-7 FGEN SHOULD
RESULT IN EXPANDING POPS FOR THE E HALF OF UPR MI. RECENT IR STLT
IMAGERY IN FACT SHOWS COOLING CLD TOPS IN THIS AREA. VERY DRY AIR TO
THE W WL SUPPORT A FAIRLY SHARP WRN EDGE OF THE HIER POPS ACRS THE
CENTRAL CWA. AS THE CLOSED LO/ACCOMPANYING JET STREAK TO THE S DRIFT
SLOWLY TO THE E THRU THE DAY AND TO NEAR CINCINNATI BY 00Z...THE
DYNAMIC FORCING WL TEND TO DIMINISH AND SHIFT EWD AS WELL...
RESULTING IN LOWERING POPS UNDER DECAYING MSTR RIBBON THAT WL STILL
MAINTAIN OVC SKIES AT LEAST OVER THE E HALF. ALL THIS ACTION WL
REMAIN AWAY FM THE WRN CWA...WHERE MORE SUNSHINE UNDER AREA OF DRIER
AIR/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC WL BOOST TEMPS WELL INTO THE 50S AFTER ANY
LINGERING LO CLDS/FOG MIX OUT. SLOWLY WEAKENING PRES GRADIENT WL
ALLOW FOR DIMINISHING WINDS...BUT LINGERING HI WAVES WHIPPED UP BY
THE HIER WAVES MAY CAUSE SOME MINOR BEACH EROSION OVER THE NCENTRAL
ESPECIALLY THIS MRNG.
TNGT...AS THE CLOSED UPR LO/DYNAMIC SUPPORT SHIFTS SLOWLY TO THE
E...LINGERNING SHOWERS OVER THE E WL SLOWLY DIMINISH TO NO MORE THAN
SCHC POPS LATE. BUT MANY OF THE MODELS HINT LO CLDS WL LINGER OVER
MAINLY THE NCENTRAL AND E WITH PERSISTENT/ALBEIT WEAKENING SFC-H925
NE FLOW OFF LK SUP UNDER SHARP SUBSIDENCE INVRN. ADDED A MENTION OF
PATCHY FOG OVER THE W LATE WHERE SKIES ARE MORE LIKELY TO TURN MOCLR
WITH A DOWNSLOPE ESE WIND COMPONENT. LOWERED FCST MIN TEMPS WELL
INTO THE 30S IN THIS AREA. LINGERING CLDS WL LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP
FALL OVER THE NCENTRAL AND E.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2014
THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE SRN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL MOVE
OVER OH BY 12Z THU AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NRN PLAINS.
BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS WILL BE THE RIDGE OVER THE NWRN CWA. BY 12Z
FRI...MODELS SHOW THE GREAT LAKES LOW HAVING MOVED TO THE
ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER E OF LAKE SUPERIOR WHILE MERGING WITH THE
SYSTEM COMING OUT OF THE NRN PLAINS...WHICH WILL HAVE STRENGTHENED
INTO A CLOSED LOW AND WILL MOVE OVER OR NEAR THE MN ARROWHEAD. THE
SFC COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NRN PLAINS LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE WRN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z FRI...BUT BETTER
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LAGS THE FRONT BY AROUND 6 HOURS. AS A
RESULT...MINIMAL PRECIP IS EXPECTED BEFORE FROM 12Z THU TO 12Z FRI
AS THE RIDGE WILL BE MOVING OVERHEAD AND THE CWA WILL BE BETWEEN THE
AREAS OF FORCING. THE ONLY PLACE WHERE SOME VERY MINOR RAIN MAY FALL
IS OVER ERN UPPER MI IF ANY SHORTWAVE ENERGY CAN ROTATE AROUND THE
GREAT LAKES LOW.
THE NRN PLAINS LOW WILL SHIFT ACROSS UPPER MI ON FRI INTO FRI
EVENING. MODELS AGREE WELL ON THIS OCCURRING...BUT DO VARY SLIGHTLY
ON TIMING WITH THE 12Z/14 ECMWF BEING FASTER...THE 00Z/15 NAM BEING
SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF BY ABOUT 6 HOURS AND THE 00Z/15 GFS BETWEEN
THE TWO. 850MB TEMPS FALL FROM A MAX OF AROUND 10C AT 00Z FRI TO
3-4C AT 18Z FRI AND THEN TO AROUND -2C OVER NWRN UPPER MI BEHIND THE
SECONDARY COLD FRONT BY 00Z SAT /WITH THE MEAN TIMING BETWEEN THE
MODELS/. THE COMBINATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND UPSLOPE FLOW
THAT BECOMES INCREASINGLY LAKE ENHANCED EASILY JUSTIFIES LIKELY POPS
FOR RAIN OVER NW PRECIP BELTS. EXPECT SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
ELSEWHERE.
CAA CONTINUES FRI NIGHT WITH 850MB TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND -5C BY
12Z SAT...ALTHOUGH THE NAM IS SLOWER AND THEREFORE WARMER. WINDS
TURN MORE N-NNW FRI NIGHT...SO THE LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED AREAS SHIFT
SLIGHTLY FROM FRI EVENING. FRI NIGHT...PRECIP SHOULD TURN TO ALL
SNOW OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NCENTRAL AND WRN UPPER MI...MEANING
THE FIRST MEASURABLE SNOWFALL FOR THE SEASON WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THESE AREAS. ELSEWHERE...A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH NO
ACCUMULATIONS. EVEN THE LARGER SCALE ECMWF AND GLOBAL GEM SHOW UP TO
0.2 INCHES OF QPF BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z SAT...SO EXPECT MORE IN THE
FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS...ESPECIALLY IF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH
AS IS HINTED AT BY GUIDANCE. WHILE IT IS STILL PRETTY FAR OUT TO BE
TALKING ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS...AN OR MAYBE TWO OF SNOW IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION LATE FRI NIGHT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR...MAINLY ON GRASSY OR ELEVATED SURFACES.
SATURDAY IS THE TRICKIER FORECAST SINCE UPPER LEVEL FORCING IS OUT
OF THE AREA...MODELS VARY ON HOW COLD THE AIRMASS WILL BE AND DRY
AIR WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE NW. THE ECMWF SHOWS 850MB TEMPS
GENERALLY WARMING THROUGH THE DAY TO A RANGE OF 0C W TO -4C E. THE
GFS IS COLDER IN SHOWING A SWATH OF -7C TO -8C 850MB TEMPS MOVING W
TO E ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE DAY...ALTHOUGH THE PREVIOUS RUN DID
NOT HAVE THIS. MODELS AGREE FAIRLY WELL ON MOISTURE...WITH
1000-700MB RH VALUES DROPPING BELOW 40 PERCENT OVER WRN LAKE
SUPERIOR BY 18Z SAT...ALTHOUGH THE GFS DOES NOT MOVE THE DRY AIR E
IN THE EVENING LIKE THE ECMWF DOES. THINK THE LES WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE W...WHILE PERSISTING
MORE OVER THE E. ADDITIONAL SNOW IS EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE W AND NCENTRAL...BUT WITH DAYTIME HEATING NOT MUCH OF THAT
SHOULD ACCUMULATE...ESPECIALLY ON THE ROADS.
BY LATE SAT NIGHT...A SFC RIDGE WILL HAVE MOVED OVER THE WRN CWA AS
MOISTURE DROPS OUT AND 850MB TEMPS INCREASE. THINK THERE MAY BE SOME
LINGERING ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS...SO WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS SHIFT.
FOR SUN THROUGH TUE...JUST USED CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE AS
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN SHORTWAVE ENERGY MAY BRING SOME PRECIP LATE SUN
INTO MON...WITH TUE LOOKING DRIER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 121 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2014
WITH DRY AIR ACROSS WRN UPER MI...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT IWD AND
CMX. HOWEVER...AT KCMX AND KIWD...THERE IS A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR
LIFR CIGS TO REAPPEAR LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WED MORNING AS NOCTURNAL
COOLING AND UPSLOPE FLOW MAY LEAD TO STRATUS FORMATION. WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE...CONDITIONS WERE KEPT VFR...BUT KEPT SCT 200FT CLOUDS AT
KIWD WHERE UPSLOPING IS MORE FAVORABLE. KSAW REMAINS IN THE MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER IL. SO...THE GREATER
MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW INTO SAW SHOULD KEEP MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE
FCST PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2014
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TODAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES STARTS TO WEAKEN WHILE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW
20 KTS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES
ACROSS THE LAKE ON FRIDAY AND THEN MERGES WITH THE LOW OVER THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES WHILE STRENGTHENING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG
N-NW WINDS TO DEVELOP FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN
GALES OF 35-40 KTS FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...TITUS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
351 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 441 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A SHARP TROF CENTERED OVER
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH A CLOSED LOW OVER IL. JET STREAK ACROSS
NRN ONTARIO/QUEBEC THAT WAS ONE OF THE BIG DRIVERS FOR THE MDT TO
HVY PCPN ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES LAST NIGHT IS SHIFTING E.
HOWEVER...FCST AREA STILL REMAINS UNDER UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THE DEPARTING JET STREAK AND ALSO IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE LEFT EXIT OF ANOTHER JET STREAK WITH A VERY
SHARP ISOTACH GRADIENT ORIENTED FROM THE LWR OHIO VALLEY TO LAKE MI
AND WRN LWR MI. PCPN MORE STRONGLY TIED TO THE LEFT EXIT OF THE
LATTER JET STREAK HAS BEEN SURGING N UP LAKE MI TODAY AND IS NOW
SPREADING INTO THE ERN FCST AREA.
TONIGHT...COMBINATION OF RATHER STRONG DEEP LAYER FORCING PER
QVECTORS AND LEFT EXIT OF THE WRN GREAT LAKES UPPER JET WHICH IS
TRANSLATING SLIGHTLY EASTWARD WILL SUPPORT BEST CHC OF RAIN OVER THE
ERN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA. SHRA COVERAGE WILL PROBABLY DIMINISH
SOME EARLY THIS EVENING PER RADAR TRENDS...BUT EXPECT NEW
DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR QUICKLY DURING THE EVENING GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF
FORCING. GREATEST COVERAGE SHOULD BE OVERNIGHT WHEN ANOTHER PUSH OF
MOISTURE ADVECTION ALSO OCCURS IN THE 850-700MB LAYER. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SOME LOCALLY MDT TO HVY PCPN. TO THE W...LOW-MID LEVEL
DRYING OCCURRING THIS AFTN WILL HOLD TONIGHT...SO DRY WEATHER WILL
PREVAIL THERE. MORE CHALLENGING PART OF THE FCST IS ACROSS THE CNTRL
WHERE DELINEATION BTWN DRY AND RAIN WILL OCCUR...SO A FAIRLY TIGHT
POP GRADIENT WILL BE PAINTED ACROSS MAINLY DICKINSON AND MARQUETTE
COUNTIES. ON ANOTHER NOTE...THE STRONGEST WINDS ON LAKE SUPERIOR
HAVE OCCURRED CLOSER TO THE UPPER MICHIGAN SHORE TODAY...LIMITING
WAVE HEIGHTS OVER WHAT THEY COULD BE IF THE STRONGER WINDS COVERED
MORE OF THE OPEN WATER. EVEN SO...CONTINUED STEADY WINDS WITH SOME
EXPANSION OF HIGHER SPEEDS OVER THE OPEN WATERS MAY PUSH WAVES UP
SOME TONIGHT...LEADING TO MINOR BEACH EROSION ALONG THE SHORES OF
MARQUETTE AND ALGER COUNTIES INTO WED.
ON WED...QVECTOR DIVERGENCE AND UPPER JET GRADUALLY SHIFT E THOUGH
SOME WEAK FORCING DOES LINGER OVER THE E. WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS IN
THE MORNING OVER THE E WITH ONLY LOW CHC POPS LINGERING IN THE AFTN.
THE W WILL REMAIN DRY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2014
THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE SRN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL MOVE
OVER OH BY 12Z THU AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NRN PLAINS.
BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS WILL BE THE RIDGE OVER THE NWRN CWA. BY 12Z
FRI...MODELS SHOW THE GREAT LAKES LOW HAVING MOVED TO THE
ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER E OF LAKE SUPERIOR WHILE MERGING WITH THE
SYSTEM COMING OUT OF THE NRN PLAINS...WHICH WILL HAVE STRENGTHENED
INTO A CLOSED LOW AND WILL MOVE OVER OR NEAR THE MN ARROWHEAD. THE
SFC COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NRN PLAINS LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE WRN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z FRI...BUT BETTER
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LAGS THE FRONT BY AROUND 6 HOURS. AS A
RESULT...MINIMAL PRECIP IS EXPECTED BEFORE FROM 12Z THU TO 12Z FRI
AS THE RIDGE WILL BE MOVING OVERHEAD AND THE CWA WILL BE BETWEEN THE
AREAS OF FORCING. THE ONLY PLACE WHERE SOME VERY MINOR RAIN MAY FALL
IS OVER ERN UPPER MI IF ANY SHORTWAVE ENERGY CAN ROTATE AROUND THE
GREAT LAKES LOW.
THE NRN PLAINS LOW WILL SHIFT ACROSS UPPER MI ON FRI INTO FRI
EVENING. MODELS AGREE WELL ON THIS OCCURRING...BUT DO VARY SLIGHTLY
ON TIMING WITH THE 12Z/14 ECMWF BEING FASTER...THE 00Z/15 NAM BEING
SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF BY ABOUT 6 HOURS AND THE 00Z/15 GFS BETWEEN
THE TWO. 850MB TEMPS FALL FROM A MAX OF AROUND 10C AT 00Z FRI TO
3-4C AT 18Z FRI AND THEN TO AROUND -2C OVER NWRN UPPER MI BEHIND THE
SECONDARY COLD FRONT BY 00Z SAT /WITH THE MEAN TIMING BETWEEN THE
MODELS/. THE COMBINATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND UPSLOPE FLOW
THAT BECOMES INCREASINGLY LAKE ENHANCED EASILY JUSTIFIES LIKELY POPS
FOR RAIN OVER NW PRECIP BELTS. EXPECT SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
ELSEWHERE.
CAA CONTINUES FRI NIGHT WITH 850MB TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND -5C BY
12Z SAT...ALTHOUGH THE NAM IS SLOWER AND THEREFORE WARMER. WINDS
TURN MORE N-NNW FRI NIGHT...SO THE LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED AREAS SHIFT
SLIGHTLY FROM FRI EVENING. FRI NIGHT...PRECIP SHOULD TURN TO ALL
SNOW OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NCENTRAL AND WRN UPPER MI...MEANING
THE FIRST MEASURABLE SNOWFALL FOR THE SEASON WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THESE AREAS. ELSEWHERE...A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH NO
ACCUMULATIONS. EVEN THE LARGER SCALE ECMWF AND GLOBAL GEM SHOW UP TO
0.2 INCHES OF QPF BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z SAT...SO EXPECT MORE IN THE
FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS...ESPECIALLY IF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH
AS IS HINTED AT BY GUIDANCE. WHILE IT IS STILL PRETTY FAR OUT TO BE
TALKING ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS...AN OR MAYBE TWO OF SNOW IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION LATE FRI NIGHT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR...MAINLY ON GRASSY OR ELEVATED SURFACES.
SATURDAY IS THE TRICKIER FORECAST SINCE UPPER LEVEL FORCING IS OUT
OF THE AREA...MODELS VARY ON HOW COLD THE AIRMASS WILL BE AND DRY
AIR WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE NW. THE ECMWF SHOWS 850MB TEMPS
GENERALLY WARMING THROUGH THE DAY TO A RANGE OF 0C W TO -4C E. THE
GFS IS COLDER IN SHOWING A SWATH OF -7C TO -8C 850MB TEMPS MOVING W
TO E ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE DAY...ALTHOUGH THE PREVIOUS RUN DID
NOT HAVE THIS. MODELS AGREE FAIRLY WELL ON MOISTURE...WITH
1000-700MB RH VALUES DROPPING BELOW 40 PERCENT OVER WRN LAKE
SUPERIOR BY 18Z SAT...ALTHOUGH THE GFS DOES NOT MOVE THE DRY AIR E
IN THE EVENING LIKE THE ECMWF DOES. THINK THE LES WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE W...WHILE PERSISTING
MORE OVER THE E. ADDITIONAL SNOW IS EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE W AND NCENTRAL...BUT WITH DAYTIME HEATING NOT MUCH OF THAT
SHOULD ACCUMULATE...ESPECIALLY ON THE ROADS.
BY LATE SAT NIGHT...A SFC RIDGE WILL HAVE MOVED OVER THE WRN CWA AS
MOISTURE DROPS OUT AND 850MB TEMPS INCREASE. THINK THERE MAY BE SOME
LINGERING ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS...SO WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS SHIFT.
FOR SUN THROUGH TUE...JUST USED CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE AS
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN SHORTWAVE ENERGY MAY BRING SOME PRECIP LATE SUN
INTO MON...WITH TUE LOOKING DRIER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 121 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2014
WITH DRY AIR ACROSS WRN UPER MI...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT IWD AND
CMX. HOWEVER...AT KCMX AND KIWD...THERE IS A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR
LIFR CIGS TO REAPPEAR LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WED MORNING AS NOCTURNAL
COOLING AND UPSLOPE FLOW MAY LEAD TO STRATUS FORMATION. WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE...CONDITIONS WERE KEPT VFR...BUT KEPT SCT 200FT CLOUDS AT
KIWD WHERE UPSLOPING IS MORE FAVORABLE. KSAW REMAINS IN THE MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER IL. SO...THE GREATER
MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW INTO SAW SHOULD KEEP MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE
FCST PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2014
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TODAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES STARTS TO WEAKEN WHILE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW
20 KTS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES
ACROSS THE LAKE ON FRIDAY AND THEN MERGES WITH THE LOW OVER THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES WHILE STRENGTHENING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG
N-NW WINDS TO DEVELOP FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN
GALES OF 35-40 KTS FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...TITUS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
128 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 441 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A SHARP TROF CENTERED OVER
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH A CLOSED LOW OVER IL. JET STREAK ACROSS
NRN ONTARIO/QUEBEC THAT WAS ONE OF THE BIG DRIVERS FOR THE MDT TO
HVY PCPN ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES LAST NIGHT IS SHIFTING E.
HOWEVER...FCST AREA STILL REMAINS UNDER UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THE DEPARTING JET STREAK AND ALSO IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE LEFT EXIT OF ANOTHER JET STREAK WITH A VERY
SHARP ISOTACH GRADIENT ORIENTED FROM THE LWR OHIO VALLEY TO LAKE MI
AND WRN LWR MI. PCPN MORE STRONGLY TIED TO THE LEFT EXIT OF THE
LATTER JET STREAK HAS BEEN SURGING N UP LAKE MI TODAY AND IS NOW
SPREADING INTO THE ERN FCST AREA.
TONIGHT...COMBINATION OF RATHER STRONG DEEP LAYER FORCING PER
QVECTORS AND LEFT EXIT OF THE WRN GREAT LAKES UPPER JET WHICH IS
TRANSLATING SLIGHTLY EASTWARD WILL SUPPORT BEST CHC OF RAIN OVER THE
ERN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA. SHRA COVERAGE WILL PROBABLY DIMINISH
SOME EARLY THIS EVENING PER RADAR TRENDS...BUT EXPECT NEW
DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR QUICKLY DURING THE EVENING GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF
FORCING. GREATEST COVERAGE SHOULD BE OVERNIGHT WHEN ANOTHER PUSH OF
MOISTURE ADVECTION ALSO OCCURS IN THE 850-700MB LAYER. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SOME LOCALLY MDT TO HVY PCPN. TO THE W...LOW-MID LEVEL
DRYING OCCURRING THIS AFTN WILL HOLD TONIGHT...SO DRY WEATHER WILL
PREVAIL THERE. MORE CHALLENGING PART OF THE FCST IS ACROSS THE CNTRL
WHERE DELINEATION BTWN DRY AND RAIN WILL OCCUR...SO A FAIRLY TIGHT
POP GRADIENT WILL BE PAINTED ACROSS MAINLY DICKINSON AND MARQUETTE
COUNTIES. ON ANOTHER NOTE...THE STRONGEST WINDS ON LAKE SUPERIOR
HAVE OCCURRED CLOSER TO THE UPPER MICHIGAN SHORE TODAY...LIMITING
WAVE HEIGHTS OVER WHAT THEY COULD BE IF THE STRONGER WINDS COVERED
MORE OF THE OPEN WATER. EVEN SO...CONTINUED STEADY WINDS WITH SOME
EXPANSION OF HIGHER SPEEDS OVER THE OPEN WATERS MAY PUSH WAVES UP
SOME TONIGHT...LEADING TO MINOR BEACH EROSION ALONG THE SHORES OF
MARQUETTE AND ALGER COUNTIES INTO WED.
ON WED...QVECTOR DIVERGENCE AND UPPER JET GRADUALLY SHIFT E THOUGH
SOME WEAK FORCING DOES LINGER OVER THE E. WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS IN
THE MORNING OVER THE E WITH ONLY LOW CHC POPS LINGERING IN THE AFTN.
THE W WILL REMAIN DRY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014
THE FORECAST FOR LATE THIS WEEK REMAINS COMPLICATED AS THE UPPER LOW
PERSISTS OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THURSDAY...LEADING TO
THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA UNDER CONTINUED CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT...WHILE THE WESTERN AREA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK
RIDGING. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE EAST UNDER GENERALLY CLOUDY SKIES WED NIGHT INTO
THU...WHILE THE WEST MAY END UP WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.
HOWEVER...EVEN WITH THE EAST SEEING RAIN CHANCES...THIS AREA WILL BE
QUITE FAR REMOVED FROM THE UPPER LOW ITSELF AND ANY RAIN SHOWERS
WILL BE SCATTERED AT BEST...NOT ANYTHING LIKE AN ALL DAY RAIN LIKE
THE EAST HAS SEEN TODAY.
FINALLY...BY FRIDAY...AN UPPER DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER MS VLY AND MERGE WITH THE
GREAT LAKES UPPER LOW. THIS WILL ALLOW THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO
MOVE THROUGH AND ALSO ALLOW FOR MOISTURE TO WRAP AROUND THE MEAN
UPPER LOW AS IT MOVES TO HUDSON BAY. AS SUCH...ALONG AND BEHIND THE
SFC AND UPPER TOUGH THERE WILL BE BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN. IN
FACT...THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH SHOW UP TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH OF
RAIN FOR THE WEST FRI AFTN/EVENING. THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE
COLDER 850MB TEMPS DROPPING IN TO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT AS WELL
AS CYCLONIC UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE WESTERN UPPER PENINSULA. AS
SUCH...WILL RAISE POPS TO HIGH CHC OR LIKELY ACROSS THE WEST. WITH
THE CYCLONIC FLOW AND INDICATIONS FROM THE 12Z ECMWF THAT AN
ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT...WILL MAINTAIN
HIGHER POPS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR DUE TO LAKE ENHANCED PCPN. IN
FACT...IF THE COLDER ECMWF VERIFIES WITH 1000-850MB THICKNESS VALUES
BELOW 1300M...THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF MARQUETTE WILL LIKELY SEE
THEIR FIRST MEASURABLE SNOWFALL OF THE YEAR FRI NIGHT. AS
SUCH...WILL ALSO MENTION SNOW A LITTLE MORE ON FRI NIGHT IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF MARQUETTE.
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...EXPECT LAKE EFFECT PCPN TO GRADUALLY END
SATURDAY/SAT EVENING AS THE LOW MOVES OUT AND HIGH PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE BUILDS IN. WILL MAINTAIN HIGH POPS ACROSS THE
KEWEENAW AND THE EAST DUE TO THE NW PBL FLOW AND 850MB TEMPS -2C TO
-5C. RIDGING BUILDS IN BRIEFLY ON SUNDAY...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
QUIET AND WARMER DAY. HOWEVER...THE NWP START TO DISAGREE ON MON
REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE NEXT TOUGH DIVING DOWN INTO THE
TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE SUPPRESSED THAN
THE ECMWF...WITH THE GFS GENERALLY DRY FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE THE
ECWMF SHOWS AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE FOR RAIN WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM A
LITTLE FURTHER NORTH. FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FCST BUT IT
POSSIBLE THAT POPS WILL NEED TO BE INTRODUCED AT SOME POINT FOR MON.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 121 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2014
WITH DRY AIR ACROSS WRN UPER MI...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT IWD AND
CMX. HOWEVER...AT KCMX AND KIWD...THERE IS A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR
LIFR CIGS TO REAPPEAR LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WED MORNING AS NOCTURNAL
COOLING AND UPSLOPE FLOW MAY LEAD TO STRATUS FORMATION. WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE...CONDITIONS WERE KEPT VFR...BUT KEPT SCT 200FT CLOUDS AT
KIWD WHERE UPSLOPING IS MORE FAVORABLE. KSAW REMAINS IN THE MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER IL. SO...THE GREATER
MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW INTO SAW SHOULD KEEP MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE
FCST PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 20-30 KT TONIGHT ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REMAINS
STATIONARY. THE LOW STARTS TO WEAKEN ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO
WEAKEN DURING THE DAY AND REMAIN BELOW 20 KT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE ON FRIDAY AND THEN
MERGES WITH THE LOW OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WHILE STRENGTHENING.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR N-NW WINDS TO DEVELOP FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
WINDS COULD INCREASE TO NEAR GALE FORCE SAT BEFORE DIMINISHING
SUNDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...MRD
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...MRD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
344 AM CDT WED OCT 15 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT WED OCT 15 2014
LOW PRESSURE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS
THIS AFTN. THIS WOULD DIRECT THE WARMEST AIR ACROSS NWRN NEB
WHERE HIGHS COULD REACH MID 80S IN A FEW SPOTS. VERTICAL MIXING
IS THE ONLY LIMITING FACTOR FOR HIGHS TODAY AS H7 TEMPERATURES
RISE TOWARD 14C ACROSS SWRN NEB. IN SUMMER MONTHS...HIGHS NEAR OR
ABOVE 100F WOULD OCCUR BUT THE MODELS SHOW SOUTH WINDS TO 800MB
WHICH SHOULD LIMIT MIXING AND KEEP HIGHS IN THE 80S. 70S ARE
EXPECTED EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. THE FORECAST USES A SLIGHTLY DEEPER
MIXING PROFILE THAN SHOWN BY THE NAM AND GFS WHICH PRODUCES HIGHS
CLOSE TO WHAT IS SHOWN BY THE MET...ECS AND MAV GUIDANCE.
SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO NEAR 35 MPH ACROSS THE NORTH.
TONIGHT...THE THERMAL RIDGE MOVES DIRECTLY OVER THE FCST AREA
FOLLOWED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT. LOWS IN THE 40S ARE EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT WED OCT 15 2014
OVERALL LONG TERM PATTERN IS DOMINATED BY RIDGING AND WARM
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA EARLY IN THE DAY ON THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH TEMPS
WILL STILL WARM ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER
70S. SOME MARGINAL PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THE FROPA AND
LIKELY TO SEE AN INCREASE OF HIGH CLOUDS. WILL ALSO HAVE AN
INCREASE OF NW WINDS...WHILE BREEZY...NOT EXPECTING ADVISORY
CRITERIA.
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND THE RIDGE REDEVELOPS ACROSS THE
ROCKIES. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL...THEN A WARMING TREND
IS EXPECTED. BY THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK THE RIDGE WILL DRIFT
EASTWARD AND HIGHS SOAR IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...MAYBE
WARMER.
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S TO
MID 40S...EXCEPT FOR LOCALLY FAVORED COOL SPOTS WHICH WILL
OCCASIONALLY DIP TO NEAR FREEZING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1256 AM CDT WED OCT 15 2014
AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST OF THE GREAT PLAINS WINDS WILL
SWITCH TO THE SOUTH ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
DURING THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE SETS UP WEST OF THE AREA WILL
STRENGTHEN THE WINDS DURING THE DAY. ALONG WITH THIS...BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING TO AROUND 2K FEET AGL WILL PROMOTE WIND GUSTS UP TO
25KTS WITH THE STRONGER WIND GUSTS UP OVER THE PANHANDLE AND
NORTHERN NEBRASKA. THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...THINKING THE GUSTS
WILL SUBSIDE BUT SUSTAINED WINDS WILL STAY ABOVE 12KTS THROUGH
06Z. CLOUD WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL
BE HIGH CIRRUS SO VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT WED OCT 15 2014
FIRE DANGER COULD APPROACH CRITICAL LEVELS THIS AFTN ALONG AND
WEST OF HIGHWAY 61. THE FCST USES 50 PERCENT OF THE DETERMINISTIC
MODELS PLUS GUIDANCE AND 50 PERCENT OF THE RAP AND HRRR SOLNS
WHICH WERE THE DRIEST MODEL SOLNS. AS MENTIONED...SOUTH WINDS
MOVING NORTH UP THE CNTL HIGH PLAINS ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP DEW
POINTS IN THE 30S VS THE CLASSIC DOWNSLOPE OFF THE ROCKIES WHICH
IS NOT SHOWN BY ANY OF THE MODELS.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...CDC
FIRE WEATHER...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
332 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM LOWER MICHIGAN
TO EASTERN ILLINOIS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT AND TO
JAMES BAY BY FRIDAY NIGHT. A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL
ROTATE AROUND THIS LOW AND ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL STAY OVER THE EASTERN
LAKES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE MAIN PRECIP BAND CONTINUES TO MAKE SLOW NE PROGRESS OUT OF THE
AREA. MOST OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE GONE BY 12Z ALTHOUGH SOME
PRECIP COULD LINGER OVER NW PA MUCH OF THE MORNING. PRECIP TOTALS
SO FAR HAVE BEEN MODEST WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING AROUND HALF AN
INCH. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY SHOULD BE MARGINAL AND NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY PROBLEMS. MOST OF THE AREA WILL ENJOY A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER TODAY. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE
SREF AND HRRR SHOW SHOWERS REDEVELOPING AROUND MIDDAY. COVERAGE
SHOULD BE NO MORE THAN SCATTERED. WILL TRY FOR A DRY MORNING ALL
BUT THE EASTERN END OF THE AREA WITH 30ISH POPS THIS AFTERNOON. NO
THUNDER EXPECTED TODAY.
SOME CLEARING HAS OCCURRED OVER THE WESTERN END OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING. EXPECT THESE CLEAR AREAS TO FILL BACK IN BY DAYBREAK.
COULD SEE A FEW PEAKS OF SUNSHINE DURING THE DAY JUST ABOUT
ANYWHERE BUT MOSTLY CLOUDY WILL BE THE FLAVOR OF THE DAY. HAVE
STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE SURFACE LOW WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY BUT THE PESKY UPPER LOW WILL LINGER OVER THE
REGION INTO THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT WILL SEE PROLONGED PERIODS OF
DRY WEATHER FOLLOWED BY PERIODS OF SHOWERS AS INDIVIDUAL PIECES OF
ENERGY ROTATE ACROSS THE AREA. TIMING THESE IMPULSES REMAINS A
CHALLENGE AND UNFORTUNATELY WILL HAVE TO GO WITH SEVERAL PERIODS
OF CHANCE POPS. AM HOPING BY EARLY FRIDAY THAT MOST OF THE SHOWERS
WILL BE CONFINED TO THE EASTERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE AREA GIVEN
THE EXPECTED LOCATION OF THE UPPER LOW. PRECIP CHANCES WILL RETURN
TO THE ENTIRE AREA ON SATURDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH
INTO THE AREA. BY THAT TIME THE SURFACE LOW WILL OVER JAMES BAY.
DO NOT THINK THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE A WASHOUT BY ANY MEANS AND
PERIODS OR GLIMPSES OF SUN ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. HAVE USED A
BLEND OF GUIDANCE TEMPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS PERIOD. THE MODELS START IN
AGREEMENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDING INTO THE AREA
ON SUNDAY. SOME LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS WILL LINGER IN EXTREME NE OH AND
NW PA SUNDAY IN THE COLD NORTHWEST FLOW AS THE LAKE AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE WILL BE NEAR 19C. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN
MODELS MOVE THE HIGH TO THE EAST QUICKER THEN THE GFS AND THIS
ALLOWS A FRONT TO BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH A
THREAT OF SHOWERS. CONTINUED THE PREVIOUS THINKING WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AND DECREASING CHANCE ON TUESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD IN QUICKLY BY LATE TUESDAY.
FOR SUNDAY WENT COOLER FOR THE HIGHS WITH THE 850 MB TEMPERATURE
AVERAGING AROUND ZERO.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS JUST ABOUT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AT 2
AM EDT. THE BAND OF SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY DRIFT EAST. NO THUNDER IN THESE SHOWERS. VARYING CONDITIONS
FROM VFR TO IFR IN THE SHOWERS. THE ISSUES FOR THE REST OF THE
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE CEILINGS AND WHEN WILL THE SHOWERS
DEVELOP AGAIN.
A DECREASE IN CLOUDS OVER NW OH WILL LEAD TO STRATUS AND A LITTLE
BIT OF FOG. THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE A LITTLE TOO STRONG FOR
DENSE FOG TO FORM. CEILINGS WILL EVENTUALLY LIFT TO VFR IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING BY EVENING.
ELSEWHERE MVFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP ONCE THE RAIN ENDS AND THEN
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS
DEVELOPING BY LATE AFTERNOON. TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THE SHOWERS
ARE IN QUESTION AS THE SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LOW WILL BE ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR AT TIMES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT AND OVER EXTREME NE OH AND NW PA SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE ON THE LAKE TODAY INTO TONIGHT
WITH THE UPPER LOW AND SURFACE LOW OVER OHIO. ON THURSDAY WITH THE
LOWS TO THE EAST THE FLOW WILL BE NORTHWEST BUT NOT EXPECTING THE
WINDS TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PROMPT THE NEED FOR A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY...HOWEVER...THE LAKE WILL BE CHOPPY.
A FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE FRIDAY. THE SOUTHWEST WINDS COULD
BE STRONG ENOUGH AHEAD OF THE FRONT FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR AN ADVISORY WILL BE BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS THREAT
WILL LAST INTO SUNDAY ESPECIALLY ON THE EAST END OF THE LAKE. THE
STRENGTH OF THE WINDS ARE A QUESTION ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS THE MODELS ARE QUITE VARIABLE. IF THE GFS IS CORRECT
WINDS WILL APPROACH GALE FORCE. ALL THE OTHER MODELS ARE NOT AS
STRONG. AT THIS POINT WITH SOME QUESTIONS CONTINUED THE 15 TO 25
KNOT FORECAST.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
343 AM CDT WED OCT 15 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT WED OCT 15 2014
LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE EDGES IN FROM WESTERN MINNESOTA/WESTERN IOWA. RAIN
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND FAR
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN BEFORE ENDING LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. SKIES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER
CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO SUNNY OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA.
LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM LOWER 60S WHERE CLOUDS
CLEAR TO THE MID 50S WHERE CLOUD COVER LINGERS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT GRADUALLY WEAKENS THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY SO WINDS WON/T BE AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY BUT STILL
ON THE BREEZY SIDE AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 20 MPH.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG RIVER VALLEY
LOCATIONS. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT FROM THE SURFACE
THROUGH AROUND 5 KFT AT KLSE. THIS SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR
WIDESPREAD VALLEY FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WILL
HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON SOME HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING IN FROM THE
WEST WHICH COULD LIMIT VALLEY FOG COVERAGE. ANOTHER NEGATIVE FOR
FOG OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN IS LINGERING STRATUS. THIS LOOKS TO
HANG ON THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT AND THIS WOULD CERTAINLY IMPACT
FOG FORMATION OVER THESE AREAS. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT WED OCT 15 2014
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY WITH
A PLEASANT FALL DAY IN STORE FOR THE AREA. PLAN ON MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE 60S. A TROUGH THEN DIVES INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE TROUGH
WILL BRING COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR
SOME RAIN SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN INTO CENTRAL
WISCONSIN . HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 50S OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN TO THE UPPER 50S ACROSS
NORTHEAST IOWA. NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW THEN PERSISTS OVER THE REGION
INTO THE WEEKEND. A SHORTWAVE DROPS INTO THE REGION SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA. LOOK
FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER
RETURNS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE
AREA. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S WITH LOWS IN THE 30S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT TUE OCT 14 2014
STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER ILL WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE SLOW
PROGRESS EAST TONIGHT-WED. THE REGION IS ON THE BACKSIDE OF A SHARP
EDGED CLOUD BAND...JUST EAST OF AN EAU-AUM LINE AT LATE EVENING.
MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR KLSE
OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE EDGE WILL STAY CLOSE. UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY/DEFORMATION REGION OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL KEEP BANDS
OF -SHRA GOING WHERE THE CLOUDS ARE LOCATED. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME CU
FORMATION ON THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE CLOUD BAND WED...BUT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE ALREADY BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS FOR KRST/KLSE.
WIND SHEAR WILL REMAIN A CONCERN OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KLSE.
LATEST VAD WIND PROFILES AT KARX HAVE 45KT WINDS AT 925 MB...ROUGHLY
2 KFT. RAP BUFKIT SOUNDINGS PERSIST THESE WINDS OVERNIGHT. A BIT
LESS FOR KRST. WILL HOLD ONTO LLWS FOR KLSE OVERNIGHT.
WED NIGHT/THU MORNING SHOWING PROMISE FOR VALLEY FOG AT KLSE. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS POINTING TO A DEEP...LIGHT WIND FIELD...WITH A SFC HIGH
OVERNIGHT MOST OF THE NIGHT. RECENT RAINS WILL HELP WITH SATURATION
IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. SOMETHING TO WATCH.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION.....RIECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1130 PM CDT TUE OCT 14 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT TUE OCT 14 2014
UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT SLOWLY NORTH ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY WITH THE SURFACE LOW LOCATED OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. LOCAL AND REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS SHOWING TWO MAIN
AREAS OF SHOWERS...ONE OVER SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN INTO EASTERN IOWA
UNDERNEATH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WITH ANOTHER OVER LAKE MICHIGAN.
THE RAIN OVER WISCONSIN AND IOWA WAS DRIFTING SLOWLY TO THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WITH THE RAIN OVER LAKE MICHIGAN MOVING NORTH.
BOTH OF THESE AREAS ARE CLOSELY TIED TO SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. BASED ON THE MOVEMENT OF
THESE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS...EXPECT THE RAIN OVER WISCONSIN AND IOWA
TO CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH AND SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA/DISSIPATE
BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THIS TREND IS HANDLED WELL BY
THE 12Z HI-RES ARW AND HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE SCENARIO OF THE
RAIN MOVING OUT SOONER THAN THE PREVIOUS EXPECTED...BUT DID NOT
TOTALLY DRY THINGS OUT. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
RAIN OVER LAKE MICHIGAN IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN COMING DOWN THE BACK
SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVERNIGHT. AS IT DOES...THERE SHOULD
BE A CONTINUATION OF THE RAIN ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE SURFACE
LOW/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE HI-RES ARW AND MOST OF THE 14.12Z
MODELS INDICATE MOST OF THIS RAIN SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF WISCONSIN INTO ILLINOIS. CENTRAL WISCONSIN SHOULD BE ON
THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THIS POTENTIAL RAIN AREA...AND HAVE
MAINTAINED SOME 30 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCES ACROSS THE EASTERN PARTS
OF THE FORECAST AREA TO COVER THIS POSSIBILITY.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHOULD MOVE OFF INTO INDIANA WEDNESDAY BUT
WITH ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH COMING AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF
IT...SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. THE QUESTION BECOMES HOW FAR
WEST THESE SHOWERS WILL EXTEND. THE HI-RES ARW SUGGESTS THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT WILL CARRY A
SMALL RAIN CHANCE IN THE MORNING ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS AND
THEN GO DRY IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE SLIDING
SLOWLY EAST WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT TUE OCT 14 2014
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT BRIEFLY BUILDS IN OVER THE AREA BEHIND
THE CURRENT UPPER LEVEL LOW...WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ALLOWING
THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO MOVE ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER AND
OVER THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY. ALL THE 14.12Z MODELS SHOW THE BEST
PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER PRIMARILY STAYING NORTH OF
THE AREA...BUT SOME OF THIS COULD TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN.
NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO WORK
WITH...SO THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION SHOULD STAY NORTH IN
THE BETTER PV ADVECTION...BUT WILL SHOW A SMALL 20 PERCENT CHANCE
ACROSS THE NORTH.
NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL ALLOW ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
TROUGH TO DROP ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. PLENTY OF DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE MODELS ON THE TRACK OF THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND THE
TIMING. THE 14.12Z ECMWF IS FARTHER SOUTHWEST THAN EITHER THE
14.12Z GEM AND GFS AND THE GFS IS SLOWER THAN THE OTHER TWO
MODELS. FOR NOW...WILL SHOW A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT AND ADJUST WHEN THERE IS A BETTER CONSENSUS
BETWEEN THE MODELS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT TUE OCT 14 2014
STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER ILL WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE SLOW
PROGRESS EAST TONIGHT-WED. THE REGION IS ON THE BACKSIDE OF A SHARP
EDGED CLOUD BAND...JUST EAST OF AN EAU-AUM LINE AT LATE EVENING.
MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR KLSE
OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE EDGE WILL STAY CLOSE. UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY/DEFORMATION REGION OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL KEEP BANDS
OF -SHRA GOING WHERE THE CLOUDS ARE LOCATED. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME CU
FORMATION ON THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE CLOUD BAND WED...BUT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE ALREADY BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS FOR KRST/KLSE.
WIND SHEAR WILL REMAIN A CONCERN OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KLSE.
LATEST VAD WIND PROFILES AT KARX HAVE 45KT WINDS AT 925 MB...ROUGHLY
2 KFT. RAP BUFKIT SOUNDINGS PERSIST THESE WINDS OVERNIGHT. A BIT
LESS FOR KRST. WILL HOLD ONTO LLWS FOR KLSE OVERNIGHT.
WED NIGHT/THU MORNING SHOWING PROMISE FOR VALLEY FOG AT KLSE. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS POINTING TO A DEEP...LIGHT WIND FIELD...WITH A SFC HIGH
OVERNIGHT MOST OF THE NIGHT. RECENT RAINS WILL HELP WITH SATURATION
IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. SOMETHING TO WATCH.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION.....RIECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RENO NV
633 AM PDT WED OCT 15 2014
.UPDATE...
WINDS ARE DIMINISHING ACROSS THE RENO-TAHOE AREA, GUSTS HAVE
DROPPED OFF TO LESS THAN 45 MPH AROUND RENO-TAHOE OUTSIDE OF A
FEW FOOTHILL LOCATIONS ALONG HIGHWAY 395. BOATERS ON TAHOE AND
PYRAMID WILL WANT TO USE CAUTION TODAY. EVEN AS WINDS DIMINISH
WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY WITH CHOPPY TO ROUGH LAKE WATERS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. FARTHER SOUTH GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH ARE OCCURRING IN
MONO COUNTY.
RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW HAS BEEN FOCUSED FROM I-80 AT DONNER
SUMMIT NORTHWARD TO PLUMAS AND LASSEN COUNTIES, WHERE RAINFALL
TOTALS UP TO 0.25 INCH HAVE BEEN REPORTED SO FAR THIS MORNING.
PROFILERS AND RADAR DATA SUGGEST SNOW LEVELS ARE AS LOW AS
6500-7000 FEET IN WESTERN LASSEN COUNTY, WHILE SNOW LEVELS
ELSEWHERE ARE AT 7000-8000 FEET. A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY
OCCUR ALONG THE SIERRA CREST BETWEEN DONNER SUMMIT AND CARSON
PASS, BUT ROAD TEMPERATURES ARE TOO HIGH TO ALLOW SNOW TO STICK TO
PAVED SURFACES. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH BY 10AM AS THE LOW LIFTS
INTO SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO. BRONG
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG WINDS WILL END THIS MORNING AS A COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS
WESTERN NEVADA, BUT BRISK WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. SCATTERED RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 THIS MORNING. DRY AND
WARM CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND. STRONG WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE WEST COAST.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 AM PDT WED OCT 15 2014/
SHORT TERM...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS HAS REACHED THE WEST COAST WITH
INCREASING INSTABILITY LEADING TO DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWER BANDS
AND ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. LATEST
GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE HRRR MODEL SPREAD THESE BANDS OF SHOWERS
INTO NORTHEAST CA AND NORTHWEST NV AFTER 4 AM AND CONTINUING
THROUGH 9 AM. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE SPOTTY BUT BRIEF BURSTS OF
HEAVIER RAIN COULD BRING A QUICK 0.10 INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL
FROM WESTERN LASSEN COUNTY SOUTHWARD TO NEAR TRUCKEE AND THE
CALIFORNIA SIDE OF THE TAHOE BASIN. PARTS OF THE SURPRISE VALLEY
AND NORTHWEST NV MAY RECEIVE UP TO 0.10 INCH OR RAINFALL.
SNOW LEVELS THIS MORNING SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE 6500-7000 FOOT
RANGE NORTH AND WEST OF PORTOLA, AND AROUND 7500 FEET ALONG THE
SIERRA CREST WEST OF TAHOE. HOWEVER, IF A HEAVIER SHOWER PASSES
OVER SOME OF THE SIERRA PASSES INCLUDING YUBA, DONNER AND ECHO
SUMMITS, WET SNOW MAY BRIEFLY MIX IN BUT ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT
EXPECTED ON ROADS.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF WESTERN NEVADA, SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MAY BLOW
INTO THE FOOTHILLS AROUND RENO AND CARSON CITY. MEANWHILE, THE
ACTIVITY OVER NORTHWEST NV WEAKENS AS IT MOVES ACROSS PERSHING
COUNTY NORTH OF LOVELOCK. BY THIS AFTERNOON, VERY LITTLE
PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE VERY MUCH THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO COLD
AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT, AND WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER OVER
MOST OF THE REGION.
AS FOR THE WIND EVENT, STRONG GUSTS WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS AS THE RIDGE WINDS MIX DOWN INTO THE LEE SIDE VALLEYS.
GUSTS BRIEFLY EDGING INTO HIGH WIND CRITERIA ARE STILL POSSIBLE
IN THE ADVISORY AREAS THROUGH 6 AM. WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON
SHOULD STAY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT REMAIN BRISK WITH GUSTS
IN THE 30-40 MPH RANGE BEFORE DIMINISHING BY EARLY EVENING.
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL SPREAD AREAS OF
MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVERHEAD WHICH SHOULD LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING,
AND PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING BELOW FREEZING AT NIGHT IN
AREAS WHICH HAVE YET TO SEE A FREEZE SO FAR THIS FALL. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-UPPER 60S, THEN EDGE UPWARD BY A
FEW DEGREES ON FRIDAY. THESE HIGHS ARE ASSUMING CLOUD COVER WILL
PARTIALLY OBSCURE THE SUN DURING EACH AFTERNOON.
A SPLITTING TROUGH REACHING THE SIERRA LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT MAY PRODUCE A FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS IN NORTHEAST CA AND FAR
NORTHWEST NV, BUT LATEST TRENDS ARE SHOWING A DIMINISHING RAIN
POTENTIAL WITH THIS TROUGH. MJD
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND. DEEP
TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC ALONG 140W WITH A RIDGE OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AS A JET DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PACIFIC ALONG 45N. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW MOISTURE AND ENERGY FROM THE TROUGH TO REACH THE SIERRA AND
WESTERN NEVADA BY MONDAY.
FOR THE WEEKEND, CONDITIONS WILL BE WARM AND DRY WITH LIGHT WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW 70S FOR THE NEVADA VALLEYS WITH 60S
FOR THE SIERRA.
WINDS ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE MONDAY AS THE TROUGH REACHES THE
WEST COAST, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG WIND EVENT. PEAK GUSTS
COULD REACH 40-50 MPH WITH 60+ MPH IN WIND PRONE LOCATIONS ALONG
HIGHWAY 395. AS USUAL WITH STRONG WIND EVENTS, MAIN IMPACTS ARE TO
TRAVEL, AVIATION, BOATING AND FIRE WEATHER. MODELS DIFFER ON HOW
MUCH MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN SIERRA, BUT THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS OR LIGHT RAIN FROM
THE WEST SHORE OF TAHOE NORTHWARD TO LASSEN COUNTY.
A SECOND WAVE MAY REACH THE AREA FOR TUESDAY, BUT THE DIFFERENCES IN
THE MODELS ARE TOO GREAT TO HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE IN ANY POTENTIAL
FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. BRONG
AVIATION...
STRONG WIND EVENT AT KRNO WILL BEGIN TO EASE UP EARLY THIS MORNING
AS THE JET ENERGY AND COLD FRONT PASS THROUGH WESTERN NEVADA. WINDS
WILL WEAKEN AS THEY SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST, BUT GUSTS AS
HIGH AS 30 KTS MAY PERSIST THROUGH 03Z THIS EVENING.
LIGHT RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW WILL MOVE ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF
KTRK-KLOL THIS MORNING. IN THE NORTHERN SIERRA TO WESTERN LASSEN
COUNTY, MVFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCUREMENTS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH 18Z.
SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST FOR THE WEEKEND. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT THURSDAY TO SUNDAY. A STRONG WIND EVENT IS POSSIBLE
MONDAY AS THE NEXT TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WEST COAST. BRONG
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING NVZ002-003.
CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING CAZ072-073.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
1151 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1151 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2014
A VORT LOBE WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...SWINGING IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. SO FAR...THE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN SPOTTY AND LIGHT ON
RADAR...SO SLOWED THE TIMING OF THE HIGHER POPS A BIT MORE BASED ON
THESE TRENDS AS WELL AS THE HRRR MODEL. WENT AHEAD AND ALLOWED FOR
CATEGORICAL POPS FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA...AS MOS HAS COME
IN WITH 80-90 POPS FOR THOSE LOCATIONS. FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS AS WELL TO ACCOUNT FOR A SPEEDIER WARM UP
BEFORE THE THICKER CLOUDS COME IN. THE FORECAST HIGHS STILL LOOK ON
TARGET...SO ONLY MADE A FEW TWEAKS BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 656 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2014
SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OUT WEST AND MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS
MORNING. THE POP FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK TO HANDLE THE RAIN
MOVING IN. ALL THE FOG HAS JUST ABOUT RISEN INTO A STRATUS LAYER IN
ALL OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK SO HAVE
UPLOADED THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND THE GRIDS TO NDFD SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY FEATURES AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
POSITIONED OVER NORTHERN INDIANA WITH A SURFACE TROUGH JUST NOW
SWINGING INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY WITH EASTERN KENTUCKY STILL IN A DRY
SLOT REGION BEHIND AN EXITING FRONT NOW WELL ACROSS THE LEE SIDE OF
THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN. THIS BREAK HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT
IN THE VALLEYS EARLIER IN THE NIGHT BUT CLOUD COVER ROLLING IN FROM
THE WEST WITH THE APPROACH OF THE TROUGH COUPLED WITH LIFTED STRATUS
LAYERS DUE TO THE INCREASE IN SOUTHWEST WINDS...FOG IS LIFTING IN
MANY AREAS. THERE WAS AN SPS ISSUED FOR THE FOG BUT BASED ON TRENDS
OUT WEST AND WHAT HAS ALREADY HAPPENED HERE...WILL LET THE SPS EXPIRE.
HEADING INTO TODAY...THE EVER PRESENT AND SLOWLY TRUDGING
EAST...UPPER LOW WILL KEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY AS A
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. MODELS ARE QUITE
INSISTENT ON LIKELY TO CAT POPS TODAY WITH THE SHOWERS EXPECTED. WENT
WITH A COMPROMISE OF THE NAM AND GFS WHILE KEEPING SOME CONSISTENCY
WITH THE SURROUNDING OFFICES. THE COMBINATION OF WEAK INSTABILITY AND
STILL SOME 0.70 TO 0.90 PWATS WILL BE ENOUGH FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. FELT THAT THIS WAS NOT
ENOUGH FOR CATEGORICAL POPS AND KEPT LIKELY INTO THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO TONIGHT. WITH THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER OVERHEAD TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A BIT LOWER OVER THE AREA WITH LOWER 60S EXPECTED. HEADING
INTO TONIGHT THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SWING THROUGH AS THE LOW
OVER NORTHERN INDIANA WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL KEEP AT LEAST
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT AND EFFECTIVELY KEEP FOG
FROM DEVELOPING TONIGHT. FOR THURSDAY...A GENERAL AGREEMENT BETWEEN
THE GFS AND NAM HAVE THE LOW EXITING BY THURSDAY EVENING AND EXITING
SHOWERS. CLOUD COVER WILL STILL BE MAINTAINED DUE TO LINGERING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE CAUGHT UP IN THE TERRAIN BUT ALL PRECIP SHOULD EXIT BY
THIS TIME. JUST LIKE TODAY...ANY SHOWERS WILL BE CAPPED OFF WITH
LIMITED INSTABILITY AND NO THUNDER IS EXPECTED. THE PERSISTENT CLOUD
COVER SHOWER ACTIVITY AS WELL AS ADVECTION NOW FROM THE WEST ON
THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGHS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2014
EARLY IN THE PERIOD...THE CLOSED LOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE DEPARTING
TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION WHILE RATHER WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING
IS POISED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE LOWER OH AND TN VALLEYS IN ITS
WAKE FOR THU NIGHT. CORRESPONDING SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE DEEP SOUTH SHOULD ALSO BRIEFLY BUILD NORTH INTO THE AREA FOR THU
NIGHT INTO EARLY ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THIS WILL ONLY BE BRIEF AS A
MOISTURE STARVED SFC COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
WORK INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY FOR FRI INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
OVERALL...THE PATTERN WILL EVOLVE TO A RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND
PLAINS TO START THE WEEKEND WITH A TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND
THE EASTERN CONUS.
THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF RUNS CONTINUE TO VARY WITH HEIGHTS ACROSS
THE OH VALLEY REGION OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE ECMWF A LITTLE STRONG
WITH INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES WORKING ACROSS THE AREA FRI NIGHT INTO
EARLY ON SAT AND NEXT SAT EVENING INTO SAT NIGHT. THE ECMWF SCENARIO
WOULD SUPPORT A BIT MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER AND IT ALSO
REMAINS COLDER...THOUGH THE 850 MB TEMPS IN THE GFS HAVE TRENDED
COLDER OVER THE WEEKEND COMPARED TO MODEL RUNS FROM 24 HOURS AGO.
LATE IN THE PERIOD...THE EASTERN TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST
WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE ROCKIES
OVER THE WEEKEND SHIFTING EAST TOWARD THE PLAINS AND MS VALLEY
REGION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. IN NW FLOW...MODELS BRING A SFC
SYSTEM TOWARD THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE
0Z ECMWF IS QUICKER TO BRING MOISTURE AND PRECIP INTO THE REGION
COMPARED TO THE 0Z GFS. HEIGHT RISES ARE PROGGED NEAR THE END OF THE
PERIOD WITH CORRESPONDING SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
COMMONWEALTH.
OVERALL...PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE QUICKLY DIMINISHING ON THU EVENING
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AS THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES
TO DEPART...THOUGH SOME LOW CLOUDS WILL BE LEFT BEHIND AS WELL.
CLEARING ON THU NIGHT WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PART OF
THE CWA. POTENTIALLY DENSE FOG MAY BECOME A CONCERN FOR THU NIGHT...
PENDING CLEARING...GIVEN SLACKENING WINDS AND MOIST GROUND FROM THE
VERY WET START TO OCTOBER.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BRIEFLY IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT ON
FRIDAY...TO NEAR 70...IF NOT A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE IN A FEW
SPOTS WHICH IS NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. COLD ADVECTION
BEHIND THE FRONT AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS BEGINS TO
BUILD INTO THE OH VALLEY WILL USHER IN A COLDER AIR MASS FOR THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
ANTICIPATED OVER THE WEEKEND AND THE SHORTWAVES IN NW FLOW FROM FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT WILL BRING LOW CLOUDS AT TIMES.
AS THE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE CWA ON SAT NIGHT...THE EASTERN COUNTIES
HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR CLOUDS SO THE COLDEST MIN T SHOULD BE
ACROSS THE DEEPER WESTERN VALLEYS AND HIGHEST TERRAIN. MIN T FOR SUN
NIGHT DEPENDS ON WHEN CLOUD COVER INCREASES. THE AIR MASS COULD
BECOME DRY ENOUGH ON SUN INTO SUN NIGHT THAT IF CLOUDS ARE SLOW TO
INCREASE...A FEW OF THE EASTERN VALLEYS MIGHT HAVE A THREAT OF
FROST. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT HIGH AS THE 0Z ECMWF
BRINGS THE CLOUDS IN A BIT FASTER THAN THE 0Z GFS. LATE IN THE
PERIOD...LOW CHANCE POPS WERE USED FOR THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WORKING THROUGH THE OH AND TN VALLEY FROM
MON INTO EARLY ON TUE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 656 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2014
FOG OVER THE AREA HAS RISEN TO A STRATUS LAYER THIS MORNING AND HAVE
PUT SOME MVFR CEILINGS IN THE TAFS TO ADDRESS THIS. SOME SHOWERS HAVE
ALREADY DEVELOPED OUT WEST AND WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA THIS
MORNING. AN APPROACHING TROUGH TODAY WILL SPAWN SOME MORE SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE PUT THIS INTO THE TAF SITES WITH MAINLY MVFR
CONDITIONS. HEADING INTO TONIGHT WILL GO WITH SOME VCSH CONTINUING
BUT WILL ALSO GO WITH SOME IFR CEILINGS AT THE SITES. WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN OVERALL LIGHT BUT SME AND LOZ MAY SEE SOME 15 KNOT SOUTHWEST
GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON THEN BECOMING LIGHT AFTER 00Z.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
727 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2014
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW SLOW MOVING CLOSED
LO OVER IL WITH 110KT H3 JET MAX MOVING N THRU LOWER MI TO THE E OF
THIS FEATURE. THERE IS AN AREA OF RAIN OVER CENTRAL UPR MI UNDER
SHARP SFC-H85 FRONTAL ZN/CYC FLOW...SOME UPR DVGC/DEEP LYR QVECTOR
CNVGC IN THE EXIT REGION OF THIS JET STREAK AND CLOSER TO DEEPER
MSTR DEPICTED ON THE 00Z GRB RAOB...WHERE 00Z PWAT WAS CLOSE TO AN
INCH OR 165 PCT OF NORMAL. BUT FAIRLY DRY LYR BTWN H7-9 SHOWN ON THE
00Z APX RAOB APPEARS TO BE LIMITING THE PCPN COVERAGE FARTHER TO THE
E...WHERE CLD TOP TEMPS WERE WARMING PER IR STLT IMAGERY DESPITE THE
PRESENCE OF THE HEALTHY DYNAMIC FORCING THERE AS WELL. NE WINDS ARE
GUSTING AS HI AS ARND 35 MPH OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL UPR MI UNDER
THE TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT IN THAT AREA. OVER THE FAR W...SKIES ARE
MOCLR CLOSER TO SFC RDG AXIS RUNNING FM NW ONTARIO SWWD THRU MN AND
VERY DRY AIRMASS SHOWN ON THE 00Z INL RAOB. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS
NEAR IWD...WHERE SOME UPSLOPE LO CLDS HAVE DVLPD.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM WL BE FOCUSED ON POPS
ASSOCIATED WITH LEFT EXIT FORCING OF JET STREAK IN LOWER MI.
TODAY...ALTHOUGH THE DRY AIR SHOWN ON THE 00Z APX RAOB IS LIMITING
THE RA COVERAGE OVER THE ERN CWA EARLY THIS MRNG...MOST OF THE
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS AN AREA OF HIER H85 DEWPTS WRAPPING WWD
INTO THE E HALF OF UPR MI BY 09Z. THE INTERACTION BTWN THIS INCRSG
MSTR AND DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC...UPR DVGC AND H85-7 FGEN SHOULD
RESULT IN EXPANDING POPS FOR THE E HALF OF UPR MI. RECENT IR STLT
IMAGERY IN FACT SHOWS COOLING CLD TOPS IN THIS AREA. VERY DRY AIR TO
THE W WL SUPPORT A FAIRLY SHARP WRN EDGE OF THE HIER POPS ACRS THE
CENTRAL CWA. AS THE CLOSED LO/ACCOMPANYING JET STREAK TO THE S DRIFT
SLOWLY TO THE E THRU THE DAY AND TO NEAR CINCINNATI BY 00Z...THE
DYNAMIC FORCING WL TEND TO DIMINISH AND SHIFT EWD AS WELL...
RESULTING IN LOWERING POPS UNDER DECAYING MSTR RIBBON THAT WL STILL
MAINTAIN OVC SKIES AT LEAST OVER THE E HALF. ALL THIS ACTION WL
REMAIN AWAY FM THE WRN CWA...WHERE MORE SUNSHINE UNDER AREA OF DRIER
AIR/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC WL BOOST TEMPS WELL INTO THE 50S AFTER ANY
LINGERING LO CLDS/FOG MIX OUT. SLOWLY WEAKENING PRES GRADIENT WL
ALLOW FOR DIMINISHING WINDS...BUT LINGERING HI WAVES WHIPPED UP BY
THE HIER WAVES MAY CAUSE SOME MINOR BEACH EROSION OVER THE NCENTRAL
ESPECIALLY THIS MRNG.
TNGT...AS THE CLOSED UPR LO/DYNAMIC SUPPORT SHIFTS SLOWLY TO THE
E...LINGERNING SHOWERS OVER THE E WL SLOWLY DIMINISH TO NO MORE THAN
SCHC POPS LATE. BUT MANY OF THE MODELS HINT LO CLDS WL LINGER OVER
MAINLY THE NCENTRAL AND E WITH PERSISTENT/ALBEIT WEAKENING SFC-H925
NE FLOW OFF LK SUP UNDER SHARP SUBSIDENCE INVRN. ADDED A MENTION OF
PATCHY FOG OVER THE W LATE WHERE SKIES ARE MORE LIKELY TO TURN MOCLR
WITH A DOWNSLOPE ESE WIND COMPONENT. LOWERED FCST MIN TEMPS WELL
INTO THE 30S IN THIS AREA. LINGERING CLDS WL LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP
FALL OVER THE NCENTRAL AND E.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2014
THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE SRN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL MOVE
OVER OH BY 12Z THU AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NRN PLAINS.
BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS WILL BE THE RIDGE OVER THE NWRN CWA. BY 12Z
FRI...MODELS SHOW THE GREAT LAKES LOW HAVING MOVED TO THE
ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER E OF LAKE SUPERIOR WHILE MERGING WITH THE
SYSTEM COMING OUT OF THE NRN PLAINS...WHICH WILL HAVE STRENGTHENED
INTO A CLOSED LOW AND WILL MOVE OVER OR NEAR THE MN ARROWHEAD. THE
SFC COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NRN PLAINS LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE WRN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z FRI...BUT BETTER
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LAGS THE FRONT BY AROUND 6 HOURS. AS A
RESULT...MINIMAL PRECIP IS EXPECTED BEFORE FROM 12Z THU TO 12Z FRI
AS THE RIDGE WILL BE MOVING OVERHEAD AND THE CWA WILL BE BETWEEN THE
AREAS OF FORCING. THE ONLY PLACE WHERE SOME VERY MINOR RAIN MAY FALL
IS OVER ERN UPPER MI IF ANY SHORTWAVE ENERGY CAN ROTATE AROUND THE
GREAT LAKES LOW.
THE NRN PLAINS LOW WILL SHIFT ACROSS UPPER MI ON FRI INTO FRI
EVENING. MODELS AGREE WELL ON THIS OCCURRING...BUT DO VARY SLIGHTLY
ON TIMING WITH THE 12Z/14 ECMWF BEING FASTER...THE 00Z/15 NAM BEING
SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF BY ABOUT 6 HOURS AND THE 00Z/15 GFS BETWEEN
THE TWO. 850MB TEMPS FALL FROM A MAX OF AROUND 10C AT 00Z FRI TO
3-4C AT 18Z FRI AND THEN TO AROUND -2C OVER NWRN UPPER MI BEHIND THE
SECONDARY COLD FRONT BY 00Z SAT /WITH THE MEAN TIMING BETWEEN THE
MODELS/. THE COMBINATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND UPSLOPE FLOW
THAT BECOMES INCREASINGLY LAKE ENHANCED EASILY JUSTIFIES LIKELY POPS
FOR RAIN OVER NW PRECIP BELTS. EXPECT SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
ELSEWHERE.
CAA CONTINUES FRI NIGHT WITH 850MB TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND -5C BY
12Z SAT...ALTHOUGH THE NAM IS SLOWER AND THEREFORE WARMER. WINDS
TURN MORE N-NNW FRI NIGHT...SO THE LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED AREAS SHIFT
SLIGHTLY FROM FRI EVENING. FRI NIGHT...PRECIP SHOULD TURN TO ALL
SNOW OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NCENTRAL AND WRN UPPER MI...MEANING
THE FIRST MEASURABLE SNOWFALL FOR THE SEASON WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THESE AREAS. ELSEWHERE...A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH NO
ACCUMULATIONS. EVEN THE LARGER SCALE ECMWF AND GLOBAL GEM SHOW UP TO
0.2 INCHES OF QPF BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z SAT...SO EXPECT MORE IN THE
FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS...ESPECIALLY IF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH
AS IS HINTED AT BY GUIDANCE. WHILE IT IS STILL PRETTY FAR OUT TO BE
TALKING ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS...AN OR MAYBE TWO OF SNOW IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION LATE FRI NIGHT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR...MAINLY ON GRASSY OR ELEVATED SURFACES.
SATURDAY IS THE TRICKIER FORECAST SINCE UPPER LEVEL FORCING IS OUT
OF THE AREA...MODELS VARY ON HOW COLD THE AIRMASS WILL BE AND DRY
AIR WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE NW. THE ECMWF SHOWS 850MB TEMPS
GENERALLY WARMING THROUGH THE DAY TO A RANGE OF 0C W TO -4C E. THE
GFS IS COLDER IN SHOWING A SWATH OF -7C TO -8C 850MB TEMPS MOVING W
TO E ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE DAY...ALTHOUGH THE PREVIOUS RUN DID
NOT HAVE THIS. MODELS AGREE FAIRLY WELL ON MOISTURE...WITH
1000-700MB RH VALUES DROPPING BELOW 40 PERCENT OVER WRN LAKE
SUPERIOR BY 18Z SAT...ALTHOUGH THE GFS DOES NOT MOVE THE DRY AIR E
IN THE EVENING LIKE THE ECMWF DOES. THINK THE LES WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE W...WHILE PERSISTING
MORE OVER THE E. ADDITIONAL SNOW IS EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE W AND NCENTRAL...BUT WITH DAYTIME HEATING NOT MUCH OF THAT
SHOULD ACCUMULATE...ESPECIALLY ON THE ROADS.
BY LATE SAT NIGHT...A SFC RIDGE WILL HAVE MOVED OVER THE WRN CWA AS
MOISTURE DROPS OUT AND 850MB TEMPS INCREASE. THINK THERE MAY BE SOME
LINGERING ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS...SO WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS SHIFT.
FOR SUN THROUGH TUE...JUST USED CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE AS
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN SHORTWAVE ENERGY MAY BRING SOME PRECIP LATE SUN
INTO MON...WITH TUE LOOKING DRIER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 724 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2014
ALTHOUGH THERE MAY STILL BE SOME UPSLOPE LO CLDS AT IWD EARLY THIS
TAF PERIOD...VERY DRY AIR SHOWN ON THE 00Z INL/YPL RAOBS IN CONCERT
WITH DAYTIME HEATING WL BRING ABOUT VFR CONDITIONS AT IWD AND CMX
INTO TNGT. AS A HI PRES RDG MOVES OVHD TNGT AND WINDS TEND NEAR CALM
UNDER A MOCLR SKY...SOME FOG MAY BRING SOME LOWER VSBYS. NOT
CONFIDENT ENUF TO GO WITH AN IFR FCST...BUT THESE LOWER VSBYS WL NOT
BE OUT OF THE QUESTION...ESPECIALLY AT IWD. FOR SAW...ALTHOUGH
GUSTY NNE WINDS WL BE SLOWLY DIMINISHING THRU THE DAY AS LO PRES IN
THE OH RIVER VALLEY SLOWLY SHIFTS TO THE E...FAVORABLE UPSLOPE WIND
COMPONENT IN THE PRESENCE OF DEEPER MSTR/A FEW -SHRA THIS MRNG WL
RESULT IN LO CLDS THRU THE DAY. EXPECT IFR CIGS TO SLOWLY IMPROVE TO
MVFR WITH SOME DAYTIME HEATING. ALTHOUGH SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES AN
IMPROVEMENT AT SAW TNGT TO VFR...NOCTURNAL COOLING AND PERSISTENT
ALBEIT LIGHTER UPSLOPE NNE WIND UNDER SHARP SUBSIDENCE INVRN SHOULD
MAINTAIN LO CLDS AND AT LEAST MVFR CIGS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2014
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TODAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES STARTS TO WEAKEN WHILE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW
20 KTS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES
ACROSS THE LAKE ON FRIDAY AND THEN MERGES WITH THE LOW OVER THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES WHILE STRENGTHENING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG
N-NW WINDS TO DEVELOP FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN
GALES OF 35-40 KTS FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...TITUS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
614 AM CDT WED OCT 15 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT WED OCT 15 2014
LOW PRESSURE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS
THIS AFTN. THIS WOULD DIRECT THE WARMEST AIR ACROSS NWRN NEB
WHERE HIGHS COULD REACH MID 80S IN A FEW SPOTS. VERTICAL MIXING
IS THE ONLY LIMITING FACTOR FOR HIGHS TODAY AS H7 TEMPERATURES
RISE TOWARD 14C ACROSS SWRN NEB. IN SUMMER MONTHS...HIGHS NEAR OR
ABOVE 100F WOULD OCCUR BUT THE MODELS SHOW SOUTH WINDS TO 800MB
WHICH SHOULD LIMIT MIXING AND KEEP HIGHS IN THE 80S. 70S ARE
EXPECTED EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. THE FORECAST USES A SLIGHTLY DEEPER
MIXING PROFILE THAN SHOWN BY THE NAM AND GFS WHICH PRODUCES HIGHS
CLOSE TO WHAT IS SHOWN BY THE MET...ECS AND MAV GUIDANCE.
SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO NEAR 35 MPH ACROSS THE NORTH.
TONIGHT...THE THERMAL RIDGE MOVES DIRECTLY OVER THE FCST AREA
FOLLOWED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT. LOWS IN THE 40S ARE EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT WED OCT 15 2014
OVERALL LONG TERM PATTERN IS DOMINATED BY RIDGING AND WARM
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA EARLY IN THE DAY ON THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH TEMPS
WILL STILL WARM ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER
70S. SOME MARGINAL PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THE FROPA AND
LIKELY TO SEE AN INCREASE OF HIGH CLOUDS. WILL ALSO HAVE AN
INCREASE OF NW WINDS...WHILE BREEZY...NOT EXPECTING ADVISORY
CRITERIA.
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND THE RIDGE REDEVELOPS ACROSS THE
ROCKIES. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL...THEN A WARMING TREND
IS EXPECTED. BY THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK THE RIDGE WILL DRIFT
EASTWARD AND HIGHS SOAR IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...MAYBE
WARMER.
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S TO
MID 40S...EXCEPT FOR LOCALLY FAVORED COOL SPOTS WHICH WILL
OCCASIONALLY DIP TO NEAR FREEZING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 613 AM CDT WED OCT 15 2014
VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS TODAY AND TONIGHT
AND SEND A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FCST AREA LATE TONIGHT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT WED OCT 15 2014
FIRE DANGER COULD APPROACH CRITICAL LEVELS THIS AFTN ALONG AND
WEST OF HIGHWAY 61. THE FCST USES 50 PERCENT OF THE DETERMINISTIC
MODELS PLUS GUIDANCE AND 50 PERCENT OF THE RAP AND HRRR SOLNS
WHICH WERE THE DRIEST MODEL SOLNS. AS MENTIONED...SOUTH WINDS
MOVING NORTH UP THE CNTL HIGH PLAINS ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP DEW
POINTS IN THE 30S VS THE CLASSIC DOWNSLOPE OFF THE ROCKIES WHICH
IS NOT SHOWN BY ANY OF THE MODELS.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...CDC
FIRE WEATHER...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
949 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM LOWER MICHIGAN
TO EASTERN ILLINOIS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT AND TO
JAMES BAY BY FRIDAY NIGHT. A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL
ROTATE AROUND THIS LOW AND ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL STAY OVER THE EASTERN
LAKES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST TO REFLECT
CURRENT CONDITIONS.
PREVIOUS...THE MAIN PRECIP BAND CONTINUES TO MAKE SLOW NE
PROGRESS OUT OF THE AREA. MOST OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE GONE BY
12Z ALTHOUGH SOME PRECIP COULD LINGER OVER NW PA MUCH OF THE
MORNING. PRECIP TOTALS SO FAR HAVE BEEN MODEST WITH MOST LOCATIONS
SEEING AROUND HALF AN INCH. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY SHOULD BE
MARGINAL AND NOT ANTICIPATING ANY PROBLEMS. MOST OF THE AREA WILL
ENJOY A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER TODAY. MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE SREF AND HRRR SHOW SHOWERS REDEVELOPING
AROUND MIDDAY. COVERAGE SHOULD BE NO MORE THAN SCATTERED. WILL TRY
FOR A DRY MORNING ALL BUT THE EASTERN END OF THE AREA WITH 30ISH
POPS THIS AFTERNOON. NO THUNDER EXPECTED TODAY.
SOME CLEARING HAS OCCURRED OVER THE WESTERN END OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING. EXPECT THESE CLEAR AREAS TO FILL BACK IN BY DAYBREAK.
COULD SEE A FEW PEAKS OF SUNSHINE DURING THE DAY JUST ABOUT
ANYWHERE BUT MOSTLY CLOUDY WILL BE THE FLAVOR OF THE DAY. HAVE
STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE SURFACE LOW WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY BUT THE PESKY UPPER LOW WILL LINGER OVER THE
REGION INTO THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT WILL SEE PROLONGED PERIODS OF
DRY WEATHER FOLLOWED BY PERIODS OF SHOWERS AS INDIVIDUAL PIECES OF
ENERGY ROTATE ACROSS THE AREA. TIMING THESE IMPULSES REMAINS A
CHALLENGE AND UNFORTUNATELY WILL HAVE TO GO WITH SEVERAL PERIODS
OF CHANCE POPS. AM HOPING BY EARLY FRIDAY THAT MOST OF THE SHOWERS
WILL BE CONFINED TO THE EASTERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE AREA GIVEN
THE EXPECTED LOCATION OF THE UPPER LOW. PRECIP CHANCES WILL RETURN
TO THE ENTIRE AREA ON SATURDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH
INTO THE AREA. BY THAT TIME THE SURFACE LOW WILL OVER JAMES BAY.
DO NOT THINK THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE A WASHOUT BY ANY MEANS AND
PERIODS OR GLIMPSES OF SUN ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. HAVE USED A
BLEND OF GUIDANCE TEMPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS PERIOD. THE MODELS START IN
AGREEMENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDING INTO THE AREA
ON SUNDAY. SOME LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS WILL LINGER IN EXTREME NE OH AND
NW PA SUNDAY IN THE COLD NORTHWEST FLOW AS THE LAKE AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE WILL BE NEAR 19C. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN
MODELS MOVE THE HIGH TO THE EAST QUICKER THEN THE GFS AND THIS
ALLOWS A FRONT TO BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH A
THREAT OF SHOWERS. CONTINUED THE PREVIOUS THINKING WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AND DECREASING CHANCE ON TUESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD IN QUICKLY BY LATE TUESDAY.
FOR SUNDAY WENT COOLER FOR THE HIGHS WITH THE 850 MB TEMPERATURE
AVERAGING AROUND ZERO.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE SHOWERS HAVE MOVED EAST. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ESPECIALLY OVER NE OH AND NW PA CAUSING SOME IFR
CEILINGS...ELSEWHERE A MIX OF VFR TO MVFR. THE TREND WILL BE FOR
ALL AREAS TO LIFT TO VFR CEILINGS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
AS THE SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LOW MOVE TOWARDS OHIO SOME SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND LAST INTO THE EVENING. SOME
SUNSHINE ON TOP OF THE CLOUDS WILL HELP. AT THIS TIME THEY SEEM
LIKE THEY WILL BE MORE ON THE SCATTERED SIDE...SO JUST WENT WITH
VCSH...SHOWERS VICINITY UNTIL IT IS CLEAR WHICH TAF SITES WILL
DEFINITELY HAVE SOME SHOWERS.
MOST MODELS TRY TO INDICATE THE CEILINGS LOWERING TO MVFR LATE
TONIGHT. WENT ALONG WITH THAT BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR AT TIMES THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND
OVER EXTREME NE OH AND NW PA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE ON THE LAKE TODAY INTO TONIGHT
WITH THE UPPER LOW AND SURFACE LOW OVER OHIO. ON THURSDAY WITH THE
LOWS TO THE EAST THE FLOW WILL BE NORTHWEST BUT NOT EXPECTING THE
WINDS TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PROMPT THE NEED FOR A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY...HOWEVER...THE LAKE WILL BE CHOPPY.
A FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE FRIDAY. THE SOUTHWEST WINDS COULD
BE STRONG ENOUGH AHEAD OF THE FRONT FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR AN ADVISORY WILL BE BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS THREAT
WILL LAST INTO SUNDAY ESPECIALLY ON THE EAST END OF THE LAKE. THE
STRENGTH OF THE WINDS ARE A QUESTION ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS THE MODELS ARE QUITE VARIABLE. IF THE GFS IS CORRECT
WINDS WILL APPROACH GALE FORCE. ALL THE OTHER MODELS ARE NOT AS
STRONG. AT THIS POINT WITH SOME QUESTIONS CONTINUED THE 15 TO 25
KNOT FORECAST.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
749 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM LOWER MICHIGAN
TO EASTERN ILLINOIS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT AND TO
JAMES BAY BY FRIDAY NIGHT. A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL
ROTATE AROUND THIS LOW AND ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL STAY OVER THE EASTERN
LAKES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS LEFT THE AREA BUT SOME SPRINKLES
ARE LIKELY STILL FALLING ACROSS THE AREA. HRRR JUST COMING IN
SHOWING SOME MORE LIGHT SHOWERS COULD OCCUR THIS MORNING IN THE
WEST. COVERAGE WILL BE VERY SMALL BUT DID ADD AN ISOLATED MENTION
PRIOR TO NOON. THE CLEAR AREA CONTINUES TO SLOWLY FILL IN AS WELL
BUT SOME PEAKS OF SUN ARE LIKELY TODAY. NO CHANGES TO TEMPS OR THE
AFTERNOON FORECAST.
PREVIOUS...THE MAIN PRECIP BAND CONTINUES TO MAKE SLOW NE PROGRESS OUT OF THE
AREA. MOST OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE GONE BY 12Z ALTHOUGH SOME
PRECIP COULD LINGER OVER NW PA MUCH OF THE MORNING. PRECIP TOTALS
SO FAR HAVE BEEN MODEST WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING AROUND HALF AN
INCH. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY SHOULD BE MARGINAL AND NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY PROBLEMS. MOST OF THE AREA WILL ENJOY A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER TODAY. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE
SREF AND HRRR SHOW SHOWERS REDEVELOPING AROUND MIDDAY. COVERAGE
SHOULD BE NO MORE THAN SCATTERED. WILL TRY FOR A DRY MORNING ALL
BUT THE EASTERN END OF THE AREA WITH 30ISH POPS THIS AFTERNOON. NO
THUNDER EXPECTED TODAY.
SOME CLEARING HAS OCCURRED OVER THE WESTERN END OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING. EXPECT THESE CLEAR AREAS TO FILL BACK IN BY DAYBREAK.
COULD SEE A FEW PEAKS OF SUNSHINE DURING THE DAY JUST ABOUT
ANYWHERE BUT MOSTLY CLOUDY WILL BE THE FLAVOR OF THE DAY. HAVE
STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE SURFACE LOW WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY BUT THE PESKY UPPER LOW WILL LINGER OVER THE
REGION INTO THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT WILL SEE PROLONGED PERIODS OF
DRY WEATHER FOLLOWED BY PERIODS OF SHOWERS AS INDIVIDUAL PIECES OF
ENERGY ROTATE ACROSS THE AREA. TIMING THESE IMPULSES REMAINS A
CHALLENGE AND UNFORTUNATELY WILL HAVE TO GO WITH SEVERAL PERIODS
OF CHANCE POPS. AM HOPING BY EARLY FRIDAY THAT MOST OF THE SHOWERS
WILL BE CONFINED TO THE EASTERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE AREA GIVEN
THE EXPECTED LOCATION OF THE UPPER LOW. PRECIP CHANCES WILL RETURN
TO THE ENTIRE AREA ON SATURDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH
INTO THE AREA. BY THAT TIME THE SURFACE LOW WILL OVER JAMES BAY.
DO NOT THINK THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE A WASHOUT BY ANY MEANS AND
PERIODS OR GLIMPSES OF SUN ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. HAVE USED A
BLEND OF GUIDANCE TEMPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS PERIOD. THE MODELS START IN
AGREEMENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDING INTO THE AREA
ON SUNDAY. SOME LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS WILL LINGER IN EXTREME NE OH AND
NW PA SUNDAY IN THE COLD NORTHWEST FLOW AS THE LAKE AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE WILL BE NEAR 19C. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN
MODELS MOVE THE HIGH TO THE EAST QUICKER THEN THE GFS AND THIS
ALLOWS A FRONT TO BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH A
THREAT OF SHOWERS. CONTINUED THE PREVIOUS THINKING WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AND DECREASING CHANCE ON TUESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD IN QUICKLY BY LATE TUESDAY.
FOR SUNDAY WENT COOLER FOR THE HIGHS WITH THE 850 MB TEMPERATURE
AVERAGING AROUND ZERO.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE SHOWERS HAVE MOVED EAST. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ESPECIALLY OVER NE OH AND NW PA CAUSING SOME IFR
CEILINGS...ELSEWHERE A MIX OF VFR TO MVFR. THE TREND WILL BE FOR
ALL AREAS TO LIFT TO VFR CEILINGS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
AS THE SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LOW MOVE TOWARDS OHIO SOME SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND LAST INTO THE EVENING. SOME
SUNSHINE ON TOP OF THE CLOUDS WILL HELP. AT THIS TIME THEY SEEM
LIKE THEY WILL BE MORE ON THE SCATTERED SIDE...SO JUST WENT WITH
VCSH...SHOWERS VICINITY UNTIL IT IS CLEAR WHICH TAF SITES WILL
DEFINITELY HAVE SOME SHOWERS.
MOST MODELS TRY TO INDICATE THE CEILINGS LOWERING TO MVFR LATE
TONIGHT. WENT ALONG WITH THAT BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR AT TIMES THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND
OVER EXTREME NE OH AND NW PA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE ON THE LAKE TODAY INTO TONIGHT
WITH THE UPPER LOW AND SURFACE LOW OVER OHIO. ON THURSDAY WITH THE
LOWS TO THE EAST THE FLOW WILL BE NORTHWEST BUT NOT EXPECTING THE
WINDS TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PROMPT THE NEED FOR A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY...HOWEVER...THE LAKE WILL BE CHOPPY.
A FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE FRIDAY. THE SOUTHWEST WINDS COULD
BE STRONG ENOUGH AHEAD OF THE FRONT FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR AN ADVISORY WILL BE BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS THREAT
WILL LAST INTO SUNDAY ESPECIALLY ON THE EAST END OF THE LAKE. THE
STRENGTH OF THE WINDS ARE A QUESTION ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS THE MODELS ARE QUITE VARIABLE. IF THE GFS IS CORRECT
WINDS WILL APPROACH GALE FORCE. ALL THE OTHER MODELS ARE NOT AS
STRONG. AT THIS POINT WITH SOME QUESTIONS CONTINUED THE 15 TO 25
KNOT FORECAST.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
623 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM LOWER MICHIGAN
TO EASTERN ILLINOIS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT AND TO
JAMES BAY BY FRIDAY NIGHT. A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL
ROTATE AROUND THIS LOW AND ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL STAY OVER THE EASTERN
LAKES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS LEFT THE AREA BUT SOME SPRINKLES
ARE LIKELY STILL FALLING ACROSS THE AREA. HRRR JUST COMING IN
SHOWING SOME MORE LIGHT SHOWERS COULD OCCUR THIS MORNING IN THE
WEST. COVERAGE WILL BE VERY SMALL BUT DID ADD AN ISOLATED MENTION
PRIOR TO NOON. THE CLEAR AREA CONTINUES TO SLOWLY FILL IN AS WELL
BUT SOME PEAKS OF SUN ARE LIKELY TODAY. NO CHANGES TO TEMPS OR THE
AFTERNOON FORECAST.
PREVIOUS...THE MAIN PRECIP BAND CONTINUES TO MAKE SLOW NE PROGRESS OUT OF THE
AREA. MOST OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE GONE BY 12Z ALTHOUGH SOME
PRECIP COULD LINGER OVER NW PA MUCH OF THE MORNING. PRECIP TOTALS
SO FAR HAVE BEEN MODEST WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING AROUND HALF AN
INCH. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY SHOULD BE MARGINAL AND NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY PROBLEMS. MOST OF THE AREA WILL ENJOY A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER TODAY. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE
SREF AND HRRR SHOW SHOWERS REDEVELOPING AROUND MIDDAY. COVERAGE
SHOULD BE NO MORE THAN SCATTERED. WILL TRY FOR A DRY MORNING ALL
BUT THE EASTERN END OF THE AREA WITH 30ISH POPS THIS AFTERNOON. NO
THUNDER EXPECTED TODAY.
SOME CLEARING HAS OCCURRED OVER THE WESTERN END OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING. EXPECT THESE CLEAR AREAS TO FILL BACK IN BY DAYBREAK.
COULD SEE A FEW PEAKS OF SUNSHINE DURING THE DAY JUST ABOUT
ANYWHERE BUT MOSTLY CLOUDY WILL BE THE FLAVOR OF THE DAY. HAVE
STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE SURFACE LOW WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY BUT THE PESKY UPPER LOW WILL LINGER OVER THE
REGION INTO THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT WILL SEE PROLONGED PERIODS OF
DRY WEATHER FOLLOWED BY PERIODS OF SHOWERS AS INDIVIDUAL PIECES OF
ENERGY ROTATE ACROSS THE AREA. TIMING THESE IMPULSES REMAINS A
CHALLENGE AND UNFORTUNATELY WILL HAVE TO GO WITH SEVERAL PERIODS
OF CHANCE POPS. AM HOPING BY EARLY FRIDAY THAT MOST OF THE SHOWERS
WILL BE CONFINED TO THE EASTERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE AREA GIVEN
THE EXPECTED LOCATION OF THE UPPER LOW. PRECIP CHANCES WILL RETURN
TO THE ENTIRE AREA ON SATURDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH
INTO THE AREA. BY THAT TIME THE SURFACE LOW WILL OVER JAMES BAY.
DO NOT THINK THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE A WASHOUT BY ANY MEANS AND
PERIODS OR GLIMPSES OF SUN ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. HAVE USED A
BLEND OF GUIDANCE TEMPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS PERIOD. THE MODELS START IN
AGREEMENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDING INTO THE AREA
ON SUNDAY. SOME LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS WILL LINGER IN EXTREME NE OH AND
NW PA SUNDAY IN THE COLD NORTHWEST FLOW AS THE LAKE AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE WILL BE NEAR 19C. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN
MODELS MOVE THE HIGH TO THE EAST QUICKER THEN THE GFS AND THIS
ALLOWS A FRONT TO BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH A
THREAT OF SHOWERS. CONTINUED THE PREVIOUS THINKING WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AND DECREASING CHANCE ON TUESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD IN QUICKLY BY LATE TUESDAY.
FOR SUNDAY WENT COOLER FOR THE HIGHS WITH THE 850 MB TEMPERATURE
AVERAGING AROUND ZERO.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS JUST ABOUT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AT 2
AM EDT. THE BAND OF SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY DRIFT EAST. NO THUNDER IN THESE SHOWERS. VARYING CONDITIONS
FROM VFR TO IFR IN THE SHOWERS. THE ISSUES FOR THE REST OF THE
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE CEILINGS AND WHEN WILL THE SHOWERS
DEVELOP AGAIN.
A DECREASE IN CLOUDS OVER NW OH WILL LEAD TO STRATUS AND A LITTLE
BIT OF FOG. THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE A LITTLE TOO STRONG FOR
DENSE FOG TO FORM. CEILINGS WILL EVENTUALLY LIFT TO VFR IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING BY EVENING.
ELSEWHERE MVFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP ONCE THE RAIN ENDS AND THEN
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS
DEVELOPING BY LATE AFTERNOON. TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THE SHOWERS
ARE IN QUESTION AS THE SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LOW WILL BE ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR AT TIMES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT AND OVER EXTREME NE OH AND NW PA SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE ON THE LAKE TODAY INTO TONIGHT
WITH THE UPPER LOW AND SURFACE LOW OVER OHIO. ON THURSDAY WITH THE
LOWS TO THE EAST THE FLOW WILL BE NORTHWEST BUT NOT EXPECTING THE
WINDS TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PROMPT THE NEED FOR A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY...HOWEVER...THE LAKE WILL BE CHOPPY.
A FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE FRIDAY. THE SOUTHWEST WINDS COULD
BE STRONG ENOUGH AHEAD OF THE FRONT FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR AN ADVISORY WILL BE BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS THREAT
WILL LAST INTO SUNDAY ESPECIALLY ON THE EAST END OF THE LAKE. THE
STRENGTH OF THE WINDS ARE A QUESTION ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS THE MODELS ARE QUITE VARIABLE. IF THE GFS IS CORRECT
WINDS WILL APPROACH GALE FORCE. ALL THE OTHER MODELS ARE NOT AS
STRONG. AT THIS POINT WITH SOME QUESTIONS CONTINUED THE 15 TO 25
KNOT FORECAST.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND OR
339 AM PDT WED OCT 15 2014
.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE SHOWERS OVER THE PACIFIC NW
TODAY. A SURFACE LOW MAY BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS THIS
MORNING TO MUCH OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD THURSDAY AND
BRING A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT BRINGS ADDITIONAL
RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS FRIDAY. SHOWERS WILL LINGER SATURDAY BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE BRINGS ANOTHER DRY PERIOD FOR SUNDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH...BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED OFFSHORE THE WASHINGTON AND
OREGON COAST..WITH THE SOUTHERN END OF THE TROUGH AXIS JUST ABOUT TO
MOVE OVER THE CA/OR BORDER. A RAIN BAND AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH HAS
BEEN GENERATING SHOWERS OVER THE PORTLAND FORECAST AREA. A NARROW
BAND OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVED OVER THE OREGON AND SOUTHERN
WATERS OVERNIGHT. THIS BAND HAS MOVED NORTH...BUT THE POSSIBILITY OF
ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE TROUGH
PUSHES INLAND...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS
THE REGION...DECREASING THIS EVENING. SNOW LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY
AROUND 6500 FEET AND SHOULD LOWER TO AROUND 5500 FEET THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS SHOWERS ARE DECREASING. EXPECT A DUSTING OF SNOW FOR
THE HIGHER CASCADES TODAY.
A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS DEVELOPING OFF THE NORTHERN OREGON COAST NEAR
45N 132W. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD TIGHTEN AS THIS LOW
MOVES NE TOWARDS THE WASHINGTON COAST THIS MORNING...AND EXPECT A
BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE COAST AND THROUGH THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY CLOSER TO SUNRISE THIS MORNING. THIS LOW IS WEAKER
THAN THE PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS FORECASTED...AND THERE IS A CHANCE THAT
OUR CURRENT WIND FORECAST IS OVERDONE 5 TO 10 MPH. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS ARE JUST SHOWING THE GRADIENT BEGINNING TO TIGHTEN AT 3
AM THIS MORNING...AND WANT TO WATCH OBSERVATIONS FOR A COUPLE OF MORE
HOURS BEFORE DECIDING WHETHER TO DROP OR KEEP THE WIND ADVISORY.
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THURSDAY AS ANOTHER
UPPER TROUGH DIGS OFFSHORE...RESULTING IN A BREAK IN RAIN THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT MOIST FRONT WILL STALL OFFSHORE THURSDAY
NIGHT BEFORE PUSHING ONSHORE EITHER FRIDAY MORNING OR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL BRING SNOW
LEVELS ABOVE 8000 FEET BEFORE THE ONSET OF RAIN. GUSTY WINDS WILL
ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT. THE NAM MODEL HINTS OF A COASTAL JET
POSSIBLY DEVELOPING JUST OFFSHORE FRIDAY EVENING WHICH COULD BRING A
BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONG GUSTS TO THE COAST.
THE 00Z GFS FORECASTS 1.25 INCH OF TROPICAL PRECIPITABLE WATER AND
DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 300K SURFACE...HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY RAIN. HOWEVER...SOME OF THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE TROUGH
SPLIT AS IT NEARS WHICH WOULD BRING THIS HEAVIER RAIN NORTH OR SOUTH
OF THE PORTLAND FORECAST AREA. THEREFORE...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH ON THE PROBABILITY OF RAIN BUT LOW ON RAIN AMOUNTS WITH THE
FRIDAY FRONT. RAIN WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT FRIDAY...BUT SHOWERS WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. TJ
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS
SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE RAIN AND COOLER
WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS MAY DIP BACK DOWN
TO AROUND 6000 FEET TUESDAY. TJ
&&
.AVIATION...VFR PREVAILING WITH A MIX OF MVFR WITH SHOWERS THROUGH
OUT THE DAY. LOCAL IFR VIS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS OR ANY
THUNDERSTORM THAT MAY DEVELOP. THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
IS COAST RANGE WESTWARD THIS MORNING. SHOWER ACTIVITY DECREASE
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE WIND SPEED FORECAST IS
THE CHALLENGE TODAY. MODELS VARY ON THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF A
DEVELOPING LOW OFF THE SOUTH OREGON COAST THAT WILL TRACK NORTH
ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY. WHILE GUSTY WINDS ON THE COAST ARE
EXPECTED...THERE IS A CHANCE SOUTH WINDS GUSTING 30 TO 35 KT IN
THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS THIS MORNING.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR PREVAILING WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS
WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS. AS STATED ABOVE WIND FORECAST IS THE
CHALLENGE. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KT 16Z-20Z TIME
FRAME BUT GUSTS 30 TO 35 KT IS POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...THE MAIN FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE A POORLY MODELED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM STRENGTHENING JUST OFFSHORE FROM THE OR/CA BORDER.
SO FAR OBSERVATIONS NEAR THE EXPECTED LOCATION OFF THE LOW OFF THE
CENTRAL OREGON COAST IS ARE LAGGING A LITTLE COMPARED TO MODELS.
THE LATEST HRRR MODEL RUN SEEMS TO BE THE BEST. THE LOCAL WRF IS
STRONGER AND FASTER THAN OBSERVED. AS STATED PREVIOUSLY THE GALE
WARNING MAY BE OVER DONE BUT GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES WILL KEEP THE
CURRENT HEADLINES. THERE IS ANOTHER LOW THAT THE MODELS ARE
HANDLING BETTER IS OFF THE NORTH OREGON COAST BRINGING ADVISORY
WINDS TO THE NEARSHORE AREAS. THE OVERALL TREND IN THE MODELS IS
TO INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS AS THE MORNING
PROGRESSES. WINDS WILL SHIFT SW AND EASE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM LATER
TODAY.
SEAS...W-NW SWELL WILL BE INCREASING FROM A WELL-ENTRENCHED BROAD
PARENT LOW DOMINATING THE GULF OF ALASKA AND NE PACIFIC. W-NW
SWELL 12-15 FT WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE
TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ROTATING AROUND THIS
BROADER UPPER LOW.
WINDS INCREASE AGAIN THU AHEAD OF A STRONGER LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOPING LATE THU OR FRI AND MOVING N TOWARDS SOUTHERN B.C.
RESULTING IN A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING THE COASTAL
WATERS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN SPECIFIC DETAILS OF THE SYSTEM IS
GRADUALLY IMPROVING WITH AT LEAST GALE GUSTS APPEARING
INCREASINGLY LIKELY. THAT SAID...SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AND WILL
CONTINUE TO EVALUATE MODEL GUIDANCE IN THE COMING DAYS AS THE
TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF THE LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL GREATLY INFLUENCE
POTENTIAL IMPACTS. WEAGLE/CULLEN/MH
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR CENTRAL
WILLAMETTE VALLEY-GREATER PORTLAND METRO AREA-SOUTH
WILLAMETTE VALLEY.
WA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR GREATER
VANCOUVER AREA.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON
FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10
TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM PDT
THURSDAY FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
FROM 10 TO 60 NM.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR COASTAL WATERS
FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 10 NM.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM PDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR COASTAL
WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 5 AM
PDT THURSDAY.
&&
$$
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RENO NV
1053 AM PDT WED OCT 15 2014
.UPDATE...
OBSERVATIONS FROM AROUND THE REGION SHOW WINDS DECREASING. THIS IS
IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OVER THE AREA WHICH
WILL BRING COOLER AIR AND LESS WIND ALOFT INTO THE REGION. THE
COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL HELP INCREASE INSTABILITY AND DECREASE THE
LIKELIHOOD FOR ANY DOWNSLOPE ENHANCEMENT EAST OF THE SIERRA. BUT
DRIER AIR WILL ALSO BEGIN WORKING INTO THE REGION WHICH WILL CAUSE
A DECREASE IN SHOWERS EVEN AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES A LITTLE MORE
UNSTABLE.
OVERALL...WIND GUSTS IN WIND PRONE AREAS MAY CONTINUE TO REACH
ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR A FEW HOURS...BUT THESE WILL NOT BE
WIDESPREAD. WILL ALLOW THE WIND ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AND WILL HOIST
LAKE WIND ADVISORIES FOR TAHOE AND PYRAMID THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
PYRAMID MAY DROP FASTER THAN TAHOE AND THESE WILL BE REVISITED
WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST. WILL INCREASE POPS JUST SLIGHTLY FOR
THE WEST SIDE OF THE TAHOE BASIN AS UP SLOPE ENHANCEMENT GETS INTO
THAT AREA AND PRODUCES A FEW MORE SHOWERS. 20
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 AM PDT WED OCT 15 2014/
UPDATE...
WINDS ARE DIMINISHING ACROSS THE RENO-TAHOE AREA, GUSTS HAVE
DROPPED OFF TO LESS THAN 45 MPH AROUND RENO-TAHOE OUTSIDE OF A
FEW FOOTHILL LOCATIONS ALONG HIGHWAY 395. BOATERS ON TAHOE AND
PYRAMID WILL WANT TO USE CAUTION TODAY. EVEN AS WINDS DIMINISH
WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY WITH CHOPPY TO ROUGH LAKE WATERS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. FARTHER SOUTH GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH ARE OCCURRING IN
MONO COUNTY.
RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW HAS BEEN FOCUSED FROM I-80 AT DONNER
SUMMIT NORTHWARD TO PLUMAS AND LASSEN COUNTIES, WHERE RAINFALL
TOTALS UP TO 0.25 INCH HAVE BEEN REPORTED SO FAR THIS MORNING.
PROFILERS AND RADAR DATA SUGGEST SNOW LEVELS ARE AS LOW AS
6500-7000 FEET IN WESTERN LASSEN COUNTY, WHILE SNOW LEVELS
ELSEWHERE ARE AT 7000-8000 FEET. A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY
OCCUR ALONG THE SIERRA CREST BETWEEN DONNER SUMMIT AND CARSON
PASS, BUT ROAD TEMPERATURES ARE TOO HIGH TO ALLOW SNOW TO STICK TO
PAVED SURFACES. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH BY 10AM AS THE LOW LIFTS
INTO SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO. BRONG
SYNOPSIS...
STRONG WINDS WILL END THIS MORNING AS A COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS
WESTERN NEVADA, BUT BRISK WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. SCATTERED RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 THIS MORNING. DRY AND
WARM CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND. STRONG WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE WEST COAST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 AM PDT WED OCT 15 2014/
SHORT TERM...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS HAS REACHED THE WEST COAST WITH
INCREASING INSTABILITY LEADING TO DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWER BANDS
AND ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. LATEST
GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE HRRR MODEL SPREAD THESE BANDS OF SHOWERS
INTO NORTHEAST CA AND NORTHWEST NV AFTER 4 AM AND CONTINUING
THROUGH 9 AM. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE SPOTTY BUT BRIEF BURSTS OF
HEAVIER RAIN COULD BRING A QUICK 0.10 INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL
FROM WESTERN LASSEN COUNTY SOUTHWARD TO NEAR TRUCKEE AND THE
CALIFORNIA SIDE OF THE TAHOE BASIN. PARTS OF THE SURPRISE VALLEY
AND NORTHWEST NV MAY RECEIVE UP TO 0.10 INCH OR RAINFALL.
SNOW LEVELS THIS MORNING SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE 6500-7000 FOOT
RANGE NORTH AND WEST OF PORTOLA, AND AROUND 7500 FEET ALONG THE
SIERRA CREST WEST OF TAHOE. HOWEVER, IF A HEAVIER SHOWER PASSES
OVER SOME OF THE SIERRA PASSES INCLUDING YUBA, DONNER AND ECHO
SUMMITS, WET SNOW MAY BRIEFLY MIX IN BUT ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT
EXPECTED ON ROADS.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF WESTERN NEVADA, SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MAY BLOW
INTO THE FOOTHILLS AROUND RENO AND CARSON CITY. MEANWHILE, THE
ACTIVITY OVER NORTHWEST NV WEAKENS AS IT MOVES ACROSS PERSHING
COUNTY NORTH OF LOVELOCK. BY THIS AFTERNOON, VERY LITTLE
PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE VERY MUCH THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO COLD
AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT, AND WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER OVER
MOST OF THE REGION.
AS FOR THE WIND EVENT, STRONG GUSTS WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS AS THE RIDGE WINDS MIX DOWN INTO THE LEE SIDE VALLEYS.
GUSTS BRIEFLY EDGING INTO HIGH WIND CRITERIA ARE STILL POSSIBLE
IN THE ADVISORY AREAS THROUGH 6 AM. WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON
SHOULD STAY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT REMAIN BRISK WITH GUSTS
IN THE 30-40 MPH RANGE BEFORE DIMINISHING BY EARLY EVENING.
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL SPREAD AREAS OF
MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVERHEAD WHICH SHOULD LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING,
AND PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING BELOW FREEZING AT NIGHT IN
AREAS WHICH HAVE YET TO SEE A FREEZE SO FAR THIS FALL. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-UPPER 60S, THEN EDGE UPWARD BY A
FEW DEGREES ON FRIDAY. THESE HIGHS ARE ASSUMING CLOUD COVER WILL
PARTIALLY OBSCURE THE SUN DURING EACH AFTERNOON.
A SPLITTING TROUGH REACHING THE SIERRA LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT MAY PRODUCE A FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS IN NORTHEAST CA AND FAR
NORTHWEST NV, BUT LATEST TRENDS ARE SHOWING A DIMINISHING RAIN
POTENTIAL WITH THIS TROUGH. MJD
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND. DEEP
TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC ALONG 140W WITH A RIDGE OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AS A JET DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PACIFIC ALONG 45N. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW MOISTURE AND ENERGY FROM THE TROUGH TO REACH THE SIERRA AND
WESTERN NEVADA BY MONDAY.
FOR THE WEEKEND, CONDITIONS WILL BE WARM AND DRY WITH LIGHT WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW 70S FOR THE NEVADA VALLEYS WITH 60S
FOR THE SIERRA.
WINDS ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE MONDAY AS THE TROUGH REACHES THE
WEST COAST, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG WIND EVENT. PEAK GUSTS
COULD REACH 40-50 MPH WITH 60+ MPH IN WIND PRONE LOCATIONS ALONG
HIGHWAY 395. AS USUAL WITH STRONG WIND EVENTS, MAIN IMPACTS ARE TO
TRAVEL, AVIATION, BOATING AND FIRE WEATHER. MODELS DIFFER ON HOW
MUCH MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN SIERRA, BUT THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS OR LIGHT RAIN FROM
THE WEST SHORE OF TAHOE NORTHWARD TO LASSEN COUNTY.
A SECOND WAVE MAY REACH THE AREA FOR TUESDAY, BUT THE DIFFERENCES IN
THE MODELS ARE TOO GREAT TO HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE IN ANY POTENTIAL
FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. BRONG
AVIATION...
STRONG WIND EVENT AT KRNO WILL BEGIN TO EASE UP EARLY THIS MORNING
AS THE JET ENERGY AND COLD FRONT PASS THROUGH WESTERN NEVADA. WINDS
WILL WEAKEN AS THEY SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST, BUT GUSTS AS
HIGH AS 30 KTS MAY PERSIST THROUGH 03Z THIS EVENING.
LIGHT RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW WILL MOVE ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF
KTRK-KLOL THIS MORNING. IN THE NORTHERN SIERRA TO WESTERN LASSEN
COUNTY, MVFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCUREMENTS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH 18Z.
SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST FOR THE WEEKEND. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT THURSDAY TO SUNDAY. A STRONG WIND EVENT IS POSSIBLE
MONDAY AS THE NEXT TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WEST COAST. BRONG
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR PYRAMID
LAKE IN NVZ004.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAKE TAHOE
IN NVZ002.
CA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAKE TAHOE
IN CAZ072.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
221 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2014
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 221 PM CDT WED OCT 15 2014
Water vapor imagery shows deep low centered over west OH covering
much of the Great Lakes south to the southern Appalachians. Energy
aloft continues to move SSE within the backside flow. Light showers
and drizzle persisted across the area mainly east of the
Mississippi. Cross section depiction off the RAP showed moisture
depth up through 500mb over the KEVV tri-state (where IR shows
enhancement -15/-20C), tapering off to a narrow corridor h9/h8
around KPOF and KUNO. Will continue highest chance PoPs east, to
near nothing SEMO through the remainder of the afternoon and evening,
with a slow drop in PoPs from west to east with time, as the low
gradually moves east. Lows tonight, will hedge toward Raw Model
output (a degree or two above MOS), given clouds.
Gradual decreasing clouds from west to east expected Thursday as
the low slowly pulls away. Clouds may hang on and be slow to clear
KEVV tri-state and into the Pennyrile. Even central sections, once
some clearing takes place, may see diurnal development take over.
Despite a frontal passage Friday, quite weather is anticipated
given a very dry air mass Thursday night through Friday night.
Some clouds expected, but that`s it. Temps Thursday through Friday
night will be a blend of existing forecast numbers, the latest MOS
and Raw Model output.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 221 PM CDT WED OCT 15 2014
A dry and seasonably cool northwest flow pattern is expected during
the long term. Very little if any precipitation will occur...and
temps will average a few degrees cooler than usual for mid October.
On Saturday...a 500 mb shortwave trough will dig southeast across
the Ohio Valley. Little if any moisture will accompany this feature.
A cool northerly low level flow will become rather gusty ahead of
high pressure over the Plains.
By Sunday...the surface high will be nearly over the Ohio
Valley...ensuring a continuation of mainly clear and cool conditions.
Another 500 mb shortwave will dig southeast across the Ohio Valley
on Monday. There may be a few showers with this system. The 12z gfs
and gefs are drier than previous runs...so pops will be kept only in
the slight chance category.
On Tuesday into Wednesday...a deep layer ridge will become
established over or just west of the Mississippi Valley. A light
northeast wind flow will keep dry and cool conditions in place.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 1250 PM CDT WED OCT 15 2014
Blanket of low clouds continues to envelope the region as cool moist
northwest winds persist around low pressure over the middle Ohio
Valley. Slight diurnal improvement in cigs and vsbys will continue
this afternoon...then a slow decrease in cigs will occur tonight.
The kevv/kowb areas will likely experience ifr cigs much of the
night. Diurnal improvement will again start Thursday morning...with
vfr conditions are kcgi. The kowb area will be the last to rise
above ifr conditions...maybe not until late morning Thursday.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
201 PM EDT WED OCT 15 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 201 PM EDT WED OCT 15 2014
SHOWERS ARE STARTING TO FILL IN ACROSS THE AREA ON SCHEDULE. THE
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK...SO HAVE ONLY ADJUSTED SOME OF THE NEAR
TERM HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO JIVE BETTER WITH THE
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1151 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2014
A VORT LOBE WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...SWINGING IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. SO FAR...THE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN SPOTTY AND LIGHT ON
RADAR...SO SLOWED THE TIMING OF THE HIGHER POPS A BIT MORE BASED ON
THESE TRENDS AS WELL AS THE HRRR MODEL. WENT AHEAD AND ALLOWED FOR
CATEGORICAL POPS FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA...AS MOS HAS COME
IN WITH 80-90 POPS FOR THOSE LOCATIONS. FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS AS WELL TO ACCOUNT FOR A SPEEDIER WARM UP
BEFORE THE THICKER CLOUDS COME IN. THE FORECAST HIGHS STILL LOOK ON
TARGET...SO ONLY MADE A FEW TWEAKS BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 656 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2014
SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OUT WEST AND MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS
MORNING. THE POP FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK TO HANDLE THE RAIN
MOVING IN. ALL THE FOG HAS JUST ABOUT RISEN INTO A STRATUS LAYER IN
ALL OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK SO HAVE
UPLOADED THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND THE GRIDS TO NDFD SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY FEATURES AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
POSITIONED OVER NORTHERN INDIANA WITH A SURFACE TROUGH JUST NOW
SWINGING INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY WITH EASTERN KENTUCKY STILL IN A DRY
SLOT REGION BEHIND AN EXITING FRONT NOW WELL ACROSS THE LEE SIDE OF
THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN. THIS BREAK HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT
IN THE VALLEYS EARLIER IN THE NIGHT BUT CLOUD COVER ROLLING IN FROM
THE WEST WITH THE APPROACH OF THE TROUGH COUPLED WITH LIFTED STRATUS
LAYERS DUE TO THE INCREASE IN SOUTHWEST WINDS...FOG IS LIFTING IN
MANY AREAS. THERE WAS AN SPS ISSUED FOR THE FOG BUT BASED ON TRENDS
OUT WEST AND WHAT HAS ALREADY HAPPENED HERE...WILL LET THE SPS EXPIRE.
HEADING INTO TODAY...THE EVER PRESENT AND SLOWLY TRUDGING
EAST...UPPER LOW WILL KEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY AS A
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. MODELS ARE QUITE
INSISTENT ON LIKELY TO CAT POPS TODAY WITH THE SHOWERS EXPECTED. WENT
WITH A COMPROMISE OF THE NAM AND GFS WHILE KEEPING SOME CONSISTENCY
WITH THE SURROUNDING OFFICES. THE COMBINATION OF WEAK INSTABILITY AND
STILL SOME 0.70 TO 0.90 PWATS WILL BE ENOUGH FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. FELT THAT THIS WAS NOT
ENOUGH FOR CATEGORICAL POPS AND KEPT LIKELY INTO THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO TONIGHT. WITH THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER OVERHEAD TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A BIT LOWER OVER THE AREA WITH LOWER 60S EXPECTED. HEADING
INTO TONIGHT THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SWING THROUGH AS THE LOW
OVER NORTHERN INDIANA WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL KEEP AT LEAST
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT AND EFFECTIVELY KEEP FOG
FROM DEVELOPING TONIGHT. FOR THURSDAY...A GENERAL AGREEMENT BETWEEN
THE GFS AND NAM HAVE THE LOW EXITING BY THURSDAY EVENING AND EXITING
SHOWERS. CLOUD COVER WILL STILL BE MAINTAINED DUE TO LINGERING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE CAUGHT UP IN THE TERRAIN BUT ALL PRECIP SHOULD EXIT BY
THIS TIME. JUST LIKE TODAY...ANY SHOWERS WILL BE CAPPED OFF WITH
LIMITED INSTABILITY AND NO THUNDER IS EXPECTED. THE PERSISTENT CLOUD
COVER SHOWER ACTIVITY AS WELL AS ADVECTION NOW FROM THE WEST ON
THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGHS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2014
EARLY IN THE PERIOD...THE CLOSED LOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE DEPARTING
TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION WHILE RATHER WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING
IS POISED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE LOWER OH AND TN VALLEYS IN ITS
WAKE FOR THU NIGHT. CORRESPONDING SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE DEEP SOUTH SHOULD ALSO BRIEFLY BUILD NORTH INTO THE AREA FOR THU
NIGHT INTO EARLY ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THIS WILL ONLY BE BRIEF AS A
MOISTURE STARVED SFC COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
WORK INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY FOR FRI INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
OVERALL...THE PATTERN WILL EVOLVE TO A RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND
PLAINS TO START THE WEEKEND WITH A TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND
THE EASTERN CONUS.
THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF RUNS CONTINUE TO VARY WITH HEIGHTS ACROSS
THE OH VALLEY REGION OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE ECMWF A LITTLE STRONG
WITH INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES WORKING ACROSS THE AREA FRI NIGHT INTO
EARLY ON SAT AND NEXT SAT EVENING INTO SAT NIGHT. THE ECMWF SCENARIO
WOULD SUPPORT A BIT MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER AND IT ALSO
REMAINS COLDER...THOUGH THE 850 MB TEMPS IN THE GFS HAVE TRENDED
COLDER OVER THE WEEKEND COMPARED TO MODEL RUNS FROM 24 HOURS AGO.
LATE IN THE PERIOD...THE EASTERN TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST
WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE ROCKIES
OVER THE WEEKEND SHIFTING EAST TOWARD THE PLAINS AND MS VALLEY
REGION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. IN NW FLOW...MODELS BRING A SFC
SYSTEM TOWARD THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE
0Z ECMWF IS QUICKER TO BRING MOISTURE AND PRECIP INTO THE REGION
COMPARED TO THE 0Z GFS. HEIGHT RISES ARE PROGGED NEAR THE END OF THE
PERIOD WITH CORRESPONDING SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
COMMONWEALTH.
OVERALL...PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE QUICKLY DIMINISHING ON THU EVENING
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AS THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES
TO DEPART...THOUGH SOME LOW CLOUDS WILL BE LEFT BEHIND AS WELL.
CLEARING ON THU NIGHT WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PART OF
THE CWA. POTENTIALLY DENSE FOG MAY BECOME A CONCERN FOR THU NIGHT...
PENDING CLEARING...GIVEN SLACKENING WINDS AND MOIST GROUND FROM THE
VERY WET START TO OCTOBER.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BRIEFLY IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT ON
FRIDAY...TO NEAR 70...IF NOT A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE IN A FEW
SPOTS WHICH IS NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. COLD ADVECTION
BEHIND THE FRONT AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS BEGINS TO
BUILD INTO THE OH VALLEY WILL USHER IN A COLDER AIR MASS FOR THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
ANTICIPATED OVER THE WEEKEND AND THE SHORTWAVES IN NW FLOW FROM FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT WILL BRING LOW CLOUDS AT TIMES.
AS THE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE CWA ON SAT NIGHT...THE EASTERN COUNTIES
HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR CLOUDS SO THE COLDEST MIN T SHOULD BE
ACROSS THE DEEPER WESTERN VALLEYS AND HIGHEST TERRAIN. MIN T FOR SUN
NIGHT DEPENDS ON WHEN CLOUD COVER INCREASES. THE AIR MASS COULD
BECOME DRY ENOUGH ON SUN INTO SUN NIGHT THAT IF CLOUDS ARE SLOW TO
INCREASE...A FEW OF THE EASTERN VALLEYS MIGHT HAVE A THREAT OF
FROST. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT HIGH AS THE 0Z ECMWF
BRINGS THE CLOUDS IN A BIT FASTER THAN THE 0Z GFS. LATE IN THE
PERIOD...LOW CHANCE POPS WERE USED FOR THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WORKING THROUGH THE OH AND TN VALLEY FROM
MON INTO EARLY ON TUE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 201 PM EDT WED OCT 15 2014
EXPECT NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO MOVE IN ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...KNOCKING DOWN THE CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY. ONCE THE SHOWERS BECOME MORE
SCATTERED LATER THIS EVENING...CEILINGS WILL LOWER DOWN TO IFR/LIFR
STATUS. CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE WORSE ON THE RIDGES. ONLY A GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED LATER WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BE OUT
OF THE SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS...WITH AN OCCASIONAL GUST TO AROUND
15 KTS...MAINLY SEEN AT LOZ AND SME THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE
DIMINISHING THIS EVENING.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
153 PM EDT WED OCT 15 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2014
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW SLOW MOVING CLOSED
LO OVER IL WITH 110KT H3 JET MAX MOVING N THRU LOWER MI TO THE E OF
THIS FEATURE. THERE IS AN AREA OF RAIN OVER CENTRAL UPR MI UNDER
SHARP SFC-H85 FRONTAL ZN/CYC FLOW...SOME UPR DVGC/DEEP LYR QVECTOR
CNVGC IN THE EXIT REGION OF THIS JET STREAK AND CLOSER TO DEEPER
MSTR DEPICTED ON THE 00Z GRB RAOB...WHERE 00Z PWAT WAS CLOSE TO AN
INCH OR 165 PCT OF NORMAL. BUT FAIRLY DRY LYR BTWN H7-9 SHOWN ON THE
00Z APX RAOB APPEARS TO BE LIMITING THE PCPN COVERAGE FARTHER TO THE
E...WHERE CLD TOP TEMPS WERE WARMING PER IR STLT IMAGERY DESPITE THE
PRESENCE OF THE HEALTHY DYNAMIC FORCING THERE AS WELL. NE WINDS ARE
GUSTING AS HI AS ARND 35 MPH OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL UPR MI UNDER
THE TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT IN THAT AREA. OVER THE FAR W...SKIES ARE
MOCLR CLOSER TO SFC RDG AXIS RUNNING FM NW ONTARIO SWWD THRU MN AND
VERY DRY AIRMASS SHOWN ON THE 00Z INL RAOB. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS
NEAR IWD...WHERE SOME UPSLOPE LO CLDS HAVE DVLPD.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM WL BE FOCUSED ON POPS
ASSOCIATED WITH LEFT EXIT FORCING OF JET STREAK IN LOWER MI.
TODAY...ALTHOUGH THE DRY AIR SHOWN ON THE 00Z APX RAOB IS LIMITING
THE RA COVERAGE OVER THE ERN CWA EARLY THIS MRNG...MOST OF THE
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS AN AREA OF HIER H85 DEWPTS WRAPPING WWD
INTO THE E HALF OF UPR MI BY 09Z. THE INTERACTION BTWN THIS INCRSG
MSTR AND DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC...UPR DVGC AND H85-7 FGEN SHOULD
RESULT IN EXPANDING POPS FOR THE E HALF OF UPR MI. RECENT IR STLT
IMAGERY IN FACT SHOWS COOLING CLD TOPS IN THIS AREA. VERY DRY AIR TO
THE W WL SUPPORT A FAIRLY SHARP WRN EDGE OF THE HIER POPS ACRS THE
CENTRAL CWA. AS THE CLOSED LO/ACCOMPANYING JET STREAK TO THE S DRIFT
SLOWLY TO THE E THRU THE DAY AND TO NEAR CINCINNATI BY 00Z...THE
DYNAMIC FORCING WL TEND TO DIMINISH AND SHIFT EWD AS WELL...
RESULTING IN LOWERING POPS UNDER DECAYING MSTR RIBBON THAT WL STILL
MAINTAIN OVC SKIES AT LEAST OVER THE E HALF. ALL THIS ACTION WL
REMAIN AWAY FM THE WRN CWA...WHERE MORE SUNSHINE UNDER AREA OF DRIER
AIR/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC WL BOOST TEMPS WELL INTO THE 50S AFTER ANY
LINGERING LO CLDS/FOG MIX OUT. SLOWLY WEAKENING PRES GRADIENT WL
ALLOW FOR DIMINISHING WINDS...BUT LINGERING HI WAVES WHIPPED UP BY
THE HIER WAVES MAY CAUSE SOME MINOR BEACH EROSION OVER THE NCENTRAL
ESPECIALLY THIS MRNG.
TNGT...AS THE CLOSED UPR LO/DYNAMIC SUPPORT SHIFTS SLOWLY TO THE
E...LINGERNING SHOWERS OVER THE E WL SLOWLY DIMINISH TO NO MORE THAN
SCHC POPS LATE. BUT MANY OF THE MODELS HINT LO CLDS WL LINGER OVER
MAINLY THE NCENTRAL AND E WITH PERSISTENT/ALBEIT WEAKENING SFC-H925
NE FLOW OFF LK SUP UNDER SHARP SUBSIDENCE INVRN. ADDED A MENTION OF
PATCHY FOG OVER THE W LATE WHERE SKIES ARE MORE LIKELY TO TURN MOCLR
WITH A DOWNSLOPE ESE WIND COMPONENT. LOWERED FCST MIN TEMPS WELL
INTO THE 30S IN THIS AREA. LINGERING CLDS WL LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP
FALL OVER THE NCENTRAL AND E.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2014
THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE SRN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL MOVE
OVER OH BY 12Z THU AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NRN PLAINS.
BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS WILL BE THE RIDGE OVER THE NWRN CWA. BY 12Z
FRI...MODELS SHOW THE GREAT LAKES LOW HAVING MOVED TO THE
ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER E OF LAKE SUPERIOR WHILE MERGING WITH THE
SYSTEM COMING OUT OF THE NRN PLAINS...WHICH WILL HAVE STRENGTHENED
INTO A CLOSED LOW AND WILL MOVE OVER OR NEAR THE MN ARROWHEAD. THE
SFC COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NRN PLAINS LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE WRN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z FRI...BUT BETTER
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LAGS THE FRONT BY AROUND 6 HOURS. AS A
RESULT...MINIMAL PRECIP IS EXPECTED BEFORE FROM 12Z THU TO 12Z FRI
AS THE RIDGE WILL BE MOVING OVERHEAD AND THE CWA WILL BE BETWEEN THE
AREAS OF FORCING. THE ONLY PLACE WHERE SOME VERY MINOR RAIN MAY FALL
IS OVER ERN UPPER MI IF ANY SHORTWAVE ENERGY CAN ROTATE AROUND THE
GREAT LAKES LOW.
THE NRN PLAINS LOW WILL SHIFT ACROSS UPPER MI ON FRI INTO FRI
EVENING. MODELS AGREE WELL ON THIS OCCURRING...BUT DO VARY SLIGHTLY
ON TIMING WITH THE 12Z/14 ECMWF BEING FASTER...THE 00Z/15 NAM BEING
SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF BY ABOUT 6 HOURS AND THE 00Z/15 GFS BETWEEN
THE TWO. 850MB TEMPS FALL FROM A MAX OF AROUND 10C AT 00Z FRI TO
3-4C AT 18Z FRI AND THEN TO AROUND -2C OVER NWRN UPPER MI BEHIND THE
SECONDARY COLD FRONT BY 00Z SAT /WITH THE MEAN TIMING BETWEEN THE
MODELS/. THE COMBINATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND UPSLOPE FLOW
THAT BECOMES INCREASINGLY LAKE ENHANCED EASILY JUSTIFIES LIKELY POPS
FOR RAIN OVER NW PRECIP BELTS. EXPECT SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
ELSEWHERE.
CAA CONTINUES FRI NIGHT WITH 850MB TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND -5C BY
12Z SAT...ALTHOUGH THE NAM IS SLOWER AND THEREFORE WARMER. WINDS
TURN MORE N-NNW FRI NIGHT...SO THE LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED AREAS SHIFT
SLIGHTLY FROM FRI EVENING. FRI NIGHT...PRECIP SHOULD TURN TO ALL
SNOW OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NCENTRAL AND WRN UPPER MI...MEANING
THE FIRST MEASURABLE SNOWFALL FOR THE SEASON WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THESE AREAS. ELSEWHERE...A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH NO
ACCUMULATIONS. EVEN THE LARGER SCALE ECMWF AND GLOBAL GEM SHOW UP TO
0.2 INCHES OF QPF BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z SAT...SO EXPECT MORE IN THE
FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS...ESPECIALLY IF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH
AS IS HINTED AT BY GUIDANCE. WHILE IT IS STILL PRETTY FAR OUT TO BE
TALKING ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS...AN OR MAYBE TWO OF SNOW IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION LATE FRI NIGHT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR...MAINLY ON GRASSY OR ELEVATED SURFACES.
SATURDAY IS THE TRICKIER FORECAST SINCE UPPER LEVEL FORCING IS OUT
OF THE AREA...MODELS VARY ON HOW COLD THE AIRMASS WILL BE AND DRY
AIR WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE NW. THE ECMWF SHOWS 850MB TEMPS
GENERALLY WARMING THROUGH THE DAY TO A RANGE OF 0C W TO -4C E. THE
GFS IS COLDER IN SHOWING A SWATH OF -7C TO -8C 850MB TEMPS MOVING W
TO E ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE DAY...ALTHOUGH THE PREVIOUS RUN DID
NOT HAVE THIS. MODELS AGREE FAIRLY WELL ON MOISTURE...WITH
1000-700MB RH VALUES DROPPING BELOW 40 PERCENT OVER WRN LAKE
SUPERIOR BY 18Z SAT...ALTHOUGH THE GFS DOES NOT MOVE THE DRY AIR E
IN THE EVENING LIKE THE ECMWF DOES. THINK THE LES WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE W...WHILE PERSISTING
MORE OVER THE E. ADDITIONAL SNOW IS EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE W AND NCENTRAL...BUT WITH DAYTIME HEATING NOT MUCH OF THAT
SHOULD ACCUMULATE...ESPECIALLY ON THE ROADS.
BY LATE SAT NIGHT...A SFC RIDGE WILL HAVE MOVED OVER THE WRN CWA AS
MOISTURE DROPS OUT AND 850MB TEMPS INCREASE. THINK THERE MAY BE SOME
LINGERING ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS...SO WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS SHIFT.
FOR SUN THROUGH TUE...JUST USED CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE AS
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN SHORTWAVE ENERGY MAY BRING SOME PRECIP LATE SUN
INTO MON...WITH TUE LOOKING DRIER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT WED OCT 15 2014
WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM ILLINOIS TO LOWER MICHIGAN WILL
RESULT IN LOW CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF LOWER VSBY AT KSAW INTO
THURSDAY. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO IFR LATER THIS AFTN...THEN
FALL BACK TO LIFR OR EVEN VLIFR TONIGHT DUE TO PERSISTENT MOIST AND
COOL NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW OFF OF LK SUPERIOR BENEATH INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING ALOFT. CONDITIONS MAY APPROACH AIRPORT
MINIMUMS. VERY LOW CONDITIONS WOULD CONTINUE INTO MID MORNING ON
THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...AT KIWD AND KCMX...THOUGH THERE MAY BE SCT-BKN
MVFR CLOUDS AT KCMX THIS AFTN...THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE IFR CATEGORY
GROUND FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
MOVES OVER WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN. CONDITIONS WILL SHOW IMPROVEMENT AT
ALL TAF SITES BY MIDDAY ON THURSDAY...BUT IMPROVEMENT WILL TAKE THE
LONGEST AT KSAW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2014
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TODAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES STARTS TO WEAKEN WHILE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW
20 KTS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES
ACROSS THE LAKE ON FRIDAY AND THEN MERGES WITH THE LOW OVER THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES WHILE STRENGTHENING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG
N-NW WINDS TO DEVELOP FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN
GALES OF 35-40 KTS FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...TITUS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1258 PM CDT WED OCT 15 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT WED OCT 15 2014
LOW PRESSURE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS
THIS AFTN. THIS WOULD DIRECT THE WARMEST AIR ACROSS NWRN NEB
WHERE HIGHS COULD REACH MID 80S IN A FEW SPOTS. VERTICAL MIXING
IS THE ONLY LIMITING FACTOR FOR HIGHS TODAY AS H7 TEMPERATURES
RISE TOWARD 14C ACROSS SWRN NEB. IN SUMMER MONTHS...HIGHS NEAR OR
ABOVE 100F WOULD OCCUR BUT THE MODELS SHOW SOUTH WINDS TO 800MB
WHICH SHOULD LIMIT MIXING AND KEEP HIGHS IN THE 80S. 70S ARE
EXPECTED EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. THE FORECAST USES A SLIGHTLY DEEPER
MIXING PROFILE THAN SHOWN BY THE NAM AND GFS WHICH PRODUCES HIGHS
CLOSE TO WHAT IS SHOWN BY THE MET...ECS AND MAV GUIDANCE.
SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO NEAR 35 MPH ACROSS THE NORTH.
TONIGHT...THE THERMAL RIDGE MOVES DIRECTLY OVER THE FCST AREA
FOLLOWED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT. LOWS IN THE 40S ARE EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT WED OCT 15 2014
OVERALL LONG TERM PATTERN IS DOMINATED BY RIDGING AND WARM
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA EARLY IN THE DAY ON THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH TEMPS
WILL STILL WARM ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER
70S. SOME MARGINAL PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THE FROPA AND
LIKELY TO SEE AN INCREASE OF HIGH CLOUDS. WILL ALSO HAVE AN
INCREASE OF NW WINDS...WHILE BREEZY...NOT EXPECTING ADVISORY
CRITERIA.
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND THE RIDGE REDEVELOPS ACROSS THE
ROCKIES. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL...THEN A WARMING TREND
IS EXPECTED. BY THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK THE RIDGE WILL DRIFT
EASTWARD AND HIGHS SOAR IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...MAYBE
WARMER.
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S TO
MID 40S...EXCEPT FOR LOCALLY FAVORED COOL SPOTS WHICH WILL
OCCASIONALLY DIP TO NEAR FREEZING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT WED OCT 15 2014
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND LOWER PRESSURE TO THE WEST...WILL
RESULT IN SOUTH WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KTS ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. INCREASING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD A VEIL OF
HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT WED OCT 15 2014
FIRE DANGER COULD APPROACH CRITICAL LEVELS THIS AFTN ALONG AND
WEST OF HIGHWAY 61. THE FCST USES 50 PERCENT OF THE DETERMINISTIC
MODELS PLUS GUIDANCE AND 50 PERCENT OF THE RAP AND HRRR SOLNS
WHICH WERE THE DRIEST MODEL SOLNS. AS MENTIONED...SOUTH WINDS
MOVING NORTH UP THE CNTL HIGH PLAINS ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP DEW
POINTS IN THE 30S VS THE CLASSIC DOWNSLOPE OFF THE ROCKIES WHICH
IS NOT SHOWN BY ANY OF THE MODELS.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...TAYLOR
FIRE WEATHER...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
208 PM EDT WED OCT 15 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM LOWER MICHIGAN
TO EASTERN ILLINOIS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT AND TO
JAMES BAY BY FRIDAY NIGHT. A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL
ROTATE AROUND THIS LOW AND ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL STAY OVER THE EASTERN
LAKES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST TO REFLECT
CURRENT CONDITIONS.
PREVIOUS...THE MAIN PRECIP BAND CONTINUES TO MAKE SLOW NE
PROGRESS OUT OF THE AREA. MOST OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE GONE BY
12Z ALTHOUGH SOME PRECIP COULD LINGER OVER NW PA MUCH OF THE
MORNING. PRECIP TOTALS SO FAR HAVE BEEN MODEST WITH MOST LOCATIONS
SEEING AROUND HALF AN INCH. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY SHOULD BE
MARGINAL AND NOT ANTICIPATING ANY PROBLEMS. MOST OF THE AREA WILL
ENJOY A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER TODAY. MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE SREF AND HRRR SHOW SHOWERS REDEVELOPING
AROUND MIDDAY. COVERAGE SHOULD BE NO MORE THAN SCATTERED. WILL TRY
FOR A DRY MORNING ALL BUT THE EASTERN END OF THE AREA WITH 30ISH
POPS THIS AFTERNOON. NO THUNDER EXPECTED TODAY.
SOME CLEARING HAS OCCURRED OVER THE WESTERN END OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING. EXPECT THESE CLEAR AREAS TO FILL BACK IN BY DAYBREAK.
COULD SEE A FEW PEAKS OF SUNSHINE DURING THE DAY JUST ABOUT
ANYWHERE BUT MOSTLY CLOUDY WILL BE THE FLAVOR OF THE DAY. HAVE
STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE SURFACE LOW WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY BUT THE PESKY UPPER LOW WILL LINGER OVER THE
REGION INTO THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT WILL SEE PROLONGED PERIODS OF
DRY WEATHER FOLLOWED BY PERIODS OF SHOWERS AS INDIVIDUAL PIECES OF
ENERGY ROTATE ACROSS THE AREA. TIMING THESE IMPULSES REMAINS A
CHALLENGE AND UNFORTUNATELY WILL HAVE TO GO WITH SEVERAL PERIODS
OF CHANCE POPS. AM HOPING BY EARLY FRIDAY THAT MOST OF THE SHOWERS
WILL BE CONFINED TO THE EASTERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE AREA GIVEN
THE EXPECTED LOCATION OF THE UPPER LOW. PRECIP CHANCES WILL RETURN
TO THE ENTIRE AREA ON SATURDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH
INTO THE AREA. BY THAT TIME THE SURFACE LOW WILL OVER JAMES BAY.
DO NOT THINK THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE A WASHOUT BY ANY MEANS AND
PERIODS OR GLIMPSES OF SUN ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. HAVE USED A
BLEND OF GUIDANCE TEMPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS PERIOD. THE MODELS START IN
AGREEMENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDING INTO THE AREA
ON SUNDAY. SOME LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS WILL LINGER IN EXTREME NE OH AND
NW PA SUNDAY IN THE COLD NORTHWEST FLOW AS THE LAKE AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE WILL BE NEAR 19C. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN
MODELS MOVE THE HIGH TO THE EAST QUICKER THEN THE GFS AND THIS
ALLOWS A FRONT TO BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH A
THREAT OF SHOWERS. CONTINUED THE PREVIOUS THINKING WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AND DECREASING CHANCE ON TUESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD IN QUICKLY BY LATE TUESDAY.
FOR SUNDAY WENT COOLER FOR THE HIGHS WITH THE 850 MB TEMPERATURE
AVERAGING AROUND ZERO.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER INDIANA WILL MOVE TO LAKE ONTARIO OVERNIGHT.
IN THE MEANTIME...SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE MOVING NORTH AHEAD OF
THE LOW. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHWEST OHIO
EXPANDING INTO NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL OHIO. CEILINGS RANGE FROM
MVFR TO VFR AND WILL LIKELY IMPROVE OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS AS THE
ATMOSPERE BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONVECTIVE THIS AFTERNOON. CEILINGS
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BACK INTO THE MVFR RANGE THIS EVENING AND IFR
OVERNIGHT AS THE WEAK LOW MOVES OVERHEAD. VISIBILITIES ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE MVFR/IFR RANGE 09-13Z. LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT TO LIGHT WESTERLY INTO THURSDAY.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR AT TIMES THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
FRIDAY...THEN AGAIN ON SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE ON THE LAKE TODAY INTO TONIGHT
WITH THE UPPER LOW AND SURFACE LOW OVER OHIO. ON THURSDAY WITH THE
LOWS TO THE EAST THE FLOW WILL BE NORTHWEST BUT NOT EXPECTING THE
WINDS TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PROMPT THE NEED FOR A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY...HOWEVER...THE LAKE WILL BE CHOPPY.
A FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE FRIDAY. THE SOUTHWEST WINDS COULD
BE STRONG ENOUGH AHEAD OF THE FRONT FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR AN ADVISORY WILL BE BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS THREAT
WILL LAST INTO SUNDAY ESPECIALLY ON THE EAST END OF THE LAKE. THE
STRENGTH OF THE WINDS ARE A QUESTION ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS THE MODELS ARE QUITE VARIABLE. IF THE GFS IS CORRECT
WINDS WILL APPROACH GALE FORCE. ALL THE OTHER MODELS ARE NOT AS
STRONG. AT THIS POINT WITH SOME QUESTIONS CONTINUED THE 15 TO 25
KNOT FORECAST.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KIELTYKA