Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 10/14/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
320 PM MDT SUN OCT 12 2014
CORRECTED HAZARDS SECTION
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 246 PM MDT SUN OCT 12 2014
ACTIVE WEATHER DAY CONTINUES WITH SNOW...RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALL PLAYING A PART. THE COLD FRONT RESPONSIBLE FOR
THE PRECIP HAS ALREADY PUSHED OUT OF THE CWA AND DID SO FASTER
THAN ANTICIPATED. IN FACT...IT MOVED OVER DURANGO AROUND NOON
WHICH WAS SEVERAL HOURS QUICKER THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST. EVEN
SO...THE ASSOCIATED SNOWFALL CAUSED SOME HEADACHES OVER MTN PASSES
ESPECIALLY VAIL PASS THAT WAS CLOSED FOR SOME TIME THIS MORNING
AND AFTERNOON. LOCAL SNOTELS SHOWING UPWARDS OF 6 INCHES HAVING
FALLEN NEAR TOWER AND SPOTTERS REPORTING AN INCH OR TWO AT MTN
BASES THOUGH THAT SNOW QUICKLY MELTED. UNSETTLED W TO NW FLOW HAS
SET UP BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL KEEP PRECIP IN THE PICTURE
THROUGH THIS AFTN AND EVENING. ONE BIG DIFFERENCE FOR THIS TIME
FRAME IS THE ON AGAIN OFF AGAIN NATURE OF THE PRECIP DUE TO ITS
CONVECTIVE NATURE. WILL KEEP ADVISORIES IN PLACE. OF NOTE IS
LATEST RAP13 AND HRRR SHOWING PRECIP REALLY WINDING DOWN EARLY
THIS EVENING AS OPPOSED TO MIDNIGHT SO CHANCE DOES EXIST FOR SOME
WINTER HIGHLIGHTS TO BE PULLED DOWN EARLY.
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT AND REFLECTED IN ALMOST ALL AREAS
REPORTING WIND GUSTS. THESE GUSTS HAVE RANGED FROM 20 MPH TO 45
MPH AT THE DURANGO AIRPORT. THE WIND WILL SLOWLY START DYING DOWN
N OF I-70 A LITTLE AFTER 6PM WHILE AREAS SOUTH WILL BE A LITTLE
LATER. THE WIND ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE. ALSO UPGRADED THE FREEZE
WATCH TO WARNINGS AS GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING BELOW FREEZING TEMPS
OVERNIGHT WHICH MAKES SENSE AS NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
USHER IN COLD AIR WHILE CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE. A BRISK MORNING
IN STORE.
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN MONDAY BRINGING A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF PRECIP-FREE WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND AS
DESCRIBED BELOW.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM MDT SUN OCT 12 2014
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION TUESDAY
BRINGING VERY DRY AND PLEASANT AUTUMN CONDITIONS. THE RIDGE AXIS
MOVES EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS A PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH MOVES
ONSHORE. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN PART
OF OUR FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND RIDGE TIGHTENS. GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS ON THE
RIDGE FLATTENING AND COOLER AIR OVER NORTHERN UTAH AND COLORADO ON
THURSDAY BEFORE RIDGING STRENGTHENS AGAIN ON FRIDAY.
THE LONG RANGE FORECAST MODELS DIVERGE ON SATURDAY BUT BOTH KEEP
CONDITIONS DRY NEXT WEEKEND THROUGHOUT THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1136 AM MDT SUN OCT 12 2014
WIDESPREAD SNOW AND RAIN WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH MVFR TO IFR BEING COMMON. TRICKY FORECAST FOR MTN TAF SITES
AS HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY DROP FLT CONDITIONS AND THEN BRING
THEM BACK UP IN SHORT ORDER. KEPT MOST TAF SITES VFR WITH SOME
TEMPO GROUPS TO ACCOUNT FOR LOWER CONDITIONS THOUGH WILL UPDATE IF
LOWER CONDITIONS BECOME MORE PREDOMINANT. OTHER CONCERN TODAY IS
GUSTY WINDS WITH REPORTS AT AIRPORTS VARYING FROM 30 MPH UP TO 45
MPH. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
WITH THESE STRONG WINDS...WIND SHEAR ALSO A CONCERN THROUGH THE
DAYTIME HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE OVERNIGHT.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ021-022.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR COZ004-
010-012-013.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ018.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM MDT MONDAY FOR COZ001-007-008-
020>022.
UT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR UTZ022-029.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...TGR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
249 PM MDT SUN OCT 12 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 246 PM MDT SUN OCT 12 2014
ACTIVE WEATHER DAY CONTINUES WITH SNOW...RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALL PLAYING A PART. THE COLD FRONT RESPONSIBLE FOR
THE PRECIP HAS ALREADY PUSHED OUT OF THE CWA AND DID SO FASTER
THAN ANTICIPATED. IN FACT...IT MOVED OVER DURANGO AROUND NOON
WHICH WAS SEVERAL HOURS QUICKER THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST. EVEN
SO...THE ASSOCIATED SNOWFALL CAUSED SOME HEADACHES OVER MTN PASSES
ESPECIALLY VAIL PASS THAT WAS CLOSED FOR SOME TIME THIS MORNING
AND AFTERNOON. LOCAL SNOTELS SHOWING UPWARDS OF 6 INCHES HAVING
FALLEN NEAR TOWER AND SPOTTERS REPORTING AN INCH OR TWO AT MTN
BASES THOUGH THAT SNOW QUICKLY MELTED. UNSETTLED W TO NW FLOW HAS
SET UP BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL KEEP PRECIP IN THE PICTURE
THROUGH THIS AFTN AND EVENING. ONE BIG DIFFERENCE FOR THIS TIME
FRAME IS THE ON AGAIN OFF AGAIN NATURE OF THE PRECIP DUE TO ITS
CONVECTIVE NATURE. WILL KEEP ADVISORIES IN PLACE. OF NOTE IS
LATEST RAP13 AND HRRR SHOWING PRECIP REALLY WINDING DOWN EARLY
THIS EVENING AS OPPOSED TO MIDNIGHT SO CHANCE DOES EXIST FOR SOME
WINTER HIGHLIGHTS TO BE PULLED DOWN EARLY.
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT AND REFLECTED IN ALMOST ALL AREAS
REPORTING WIND GUSTS. THESE GUSTS HAVE RANGED FROM 20 MPH TO 45
MPH AT THE DURANGO AIRPORT. THE WIND WILL SLOWLY START DYING DOWN
N OF I-70 A LITTLE AFTER 6PM WHILE AREAS SOUTH WILL BE A LITTLE
LATER. THE WIND ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE. ALSO UPGRADED THE FREEZE
WATCH TO WARNINGS AS GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING BELOW FREEZING TEMPS
OVERNIGHT WHICH MAKES SENSE AS NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
USHER IN COLD AIR WHILE CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE. A BRISK MORNING
IN STORE.
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN MONDAY BRINGING A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF PRECIP-FREE WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND AS
DESCRIBED BELOW.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM MDT SUN OCT 12 2014
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION TUESDAY
BRINGING VERY DRY AND PLEASANT AUTUMN CONDITIONS. THE RIDGE AXIS
MOVES EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS A PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH MOVES
ONSHORE. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN PART
OF OUR FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND RIDGE TIGHTENS. GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS ON THE
RIDGE FLATTENING AND COOLER AIR OVER NORTHERN UTAH AND COLORADO ON
THURSDAY BEFORE RIDGING STRENGTHENS AGAIN ON FRIDAY.
THE LONG RANGE FORECAST MODELS DIVERGE ON SATURDAY BUT BOTH KEEP
CONDITIONS DRY NEXT WEEKEND THROUGHOUT THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1136 AM MDT SUN OCT 12 2014
WIDESPREAD SNOW AND RAIN WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH MVFR TO IFR BEING COMMON. TRICKY FORECAST FOR MTN TAF SITES
AS HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY DROP FLT CONDITIONS AND THEN BRING
THEM BACK UP IN SHORT ORDER. KEPT MOST TAF SITES VFR WITH SOME
TEMPO GROUPS TO ACCOUNT FOR LOWER CONDITIONS THOUGH WILL UPDATE IF
LOWER CONDITIONS BECOME MORE PREDOMINANT. OTHER CONCERN TODAY IS
GUSTY WINDS WITH REPORTS AT AIRPORTS VARYING FROM 30 MPH UP TO 45
MPH. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
WITH THESE STRONG WINDS...WIND SHEAR ALSO A CONCERN THROUGH THE
DAYTIME HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE OVERNIGHT.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ021-022.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR COZ004-
010-012-013.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ018.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM MDT MONDAY FOR COZ001-007-008-
020.
UT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR UTZ022-029.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...TGR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
827 AM MDT SUN OCT 12 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 813 AM MDT SUN OCT 12 2014
INCREASED THE CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING PER OBS
AND WEBCAMS...AND WENT AHEAD AND BACKED UP THE TIMING OF THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE MOUNTAINS TO STARTING NOW. ALSO
ADDED IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS THERE IS DEFINITELY
ALREADY SOME INSTABILITY INVOLVED WITH THIS SYSTEM. STILL
MONITORING THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT UP IN WYOMING...WHICH SEEMS TO
HAVE STALLED A LITTLE BIT...BUT EXPECT IT TO ACCELERATE AS IT
MOVES OFF THE CHEYENNE RIDGE AND INTO COLORADO.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 318 AM MDT SUN OCT 12 2014
A STG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS
A CDFNT MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS BY MIDDAY. MID LVL ASCENT WILL
COMBINE WITH FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES TO PRODUCE SNOW IN THE MTNS WITH
ADVISORY TYPE AMOUNTS ABV 10000 FT.
AT LOWER ELEVATIONS THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND
A FEW TSTMS MAINLY IN THE 18Z-00Z TIMEFRAME. AFTER 00Z MID LVL
DESCENT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WILL LEAD TO A QUICK END
TO PCPN ACROSS THE PLAINS FM NORTH TO SOUTH BY EARLY EVENING. SNOW
LEVELS WILL DROP DOWN TO AROUND 6000 FEET SO COULD SEE SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE BEFORE PCPN ENDS EARLY THIS
EVENING. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FNT WITH SOME
GUSTS IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE THIS AFTN OVER THE PLAINS. HIGH
TEMPS OVER MOST OF THE PLAINS WILL PEAK IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S BY MIDDAY AND THEN GRADUALLY FALL THRU THE AFTN.
FOR TONIGHT SOME OROGRAPHIC SHSN WILL CONTINUE IN THE MTNS THIS
EVENING BEFORE DECREASING BY MIDNIGHT AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM MDT SUN OCT 12 2014
A NEAR DUE NORTHERLY JET MAXIMUM IS PROGGED OVER THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY MORNING...IT IS AROUND 120 KNOTS. THE FLOW ALOFT DECREASES
MONDAY NIGHT...BECOMING MORE NORTHWESTERLY WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
MOVING INTO COLORADO. THE UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE STATE TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE EASTERN COLORADO
BORDER AT 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING. PRETTY STRONG DOWNWARD SYNOPTIC
SCALE ENERGY IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY...WEAKENING BUT STILL DOWNWARD
MONDAY NIGHT. THE QG VERTICAL VELOCITY FIELDS HAVE BENIGN ENERGY
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE NORTHERLY
ON MONDAY WITH NORMAL DRAINAGE/DOWNSLOPING MONDAY NIGHT. NORMAL
PATTERNS LOOK LIKELY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. FOR MOISTURE...
THERE IS SOME LINGERING MONDAY MORNING...BUT IT DRIES OUT THROUGH
THE DAY. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT LOOK PRETTY DRY. THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE PROGGED IN THE 0.20 TO 0.40 INCH
RANGE ALL FOUR PERIODS. THERE IS NO CAPE PROGGED ALL FOUR PERIODS.
THE QPF FIELDS HAVE NO MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION PROGGED MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL LINGER SOME MINOR POPS OVER THE HIGH
MOUNTAINS MONDAY MORNING...THEN NO POPS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. FOR
TEMPERATURES...MONDAY`S HIGHS ARE 1-2 C WARMER THAN TODAY`S.
TUESDAY`S HIGHS ARE 6-10 C WARMER THAN MONDAY`S. FOR THE LATER
DAYS...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS ON
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH AND
COOLER AIRMASS MOVES IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THERE IS
MORE UPPER RIDGING THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. MOISTURE IS
SPARSE ALL FOUR DAYS...NO POPS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 813 AM MDT SUN OCT 12 2014
STILL MONITORING THE COLD FRONT UP IN WYOMING AS IT SEEMS TO HAVE
SLOWED DOWN JUST NORTH OF CHEYENNE. IT WILL LIKELY SPEED UP ONCE
IT PASSES OVER THE CHEYENNE RIDGE AND INTO COLORADO. WILL PUSH
OFF THE COLD FRONT TIMING AN HOUR IN THE TAFS FOR NOW. THE HRRR
AND RUC HAVE THE REAL FRONT MOVING ACROSS AROUND 18Z WITH NWLY
WINDS DEVELOPING IN ADVANCE OF IT BY 16-17Z. BY 18Z WINDS THEN
SHIFT TO THE NORTH WITH SPEEDS IN THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE WITH SOME
GUSTS 35-40 KT THRU THE AFTN. AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION...THERE WILL
BE A 3 HOUR WINDOW WHERE SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY PROBABLY IN THE
18Z- 21Z TIME PERIOD WITH DECREASING CHANCES NEAR 00Z. CEILINGS
MAY DROP DOWN TO 5000 FT WITH THE SHOWERS WITH VISIBILITY AROUND 5
MILES OR SO. BY EARLY THIS EVENING WINDS SHOULD DECREASE INTO THE
15 TO 20 MPH RANGE FM THE NORTH WITH IMPROVING CEILINGS. BY 06Z
WINDS MAY BECOME MORE NWLY WITH SPEEDS IN THE 10-15 MPH RANGE.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR COZ031-
033-034.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KRIEDERMAN
SHORT TERM...RJK
LONG TERM...RPK
AVIATION...KRIEDERMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
318 AM MDT SUN OCT 12 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 318 AM MDT SUN OCT 12 2014
A STG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS
A CDFNT MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS BY MIDDAY. MID LVL ASCENT WILL
COMBINE WITH FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES TO PRODUCE SNOW IN THE MTNS WITH
ADVISORY TYPE AMOUNTS ABV 10000 FT.
AT LOWER ELEVATIONS THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND
A FEW TSTMS MAINLY IN THE 18Z-00Z TIMEFRAME. AFTER 00Z MID LVL
DESCENT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WILL LEAD TO A QUICK END
TO PCPN ACROSS THE PLAINS FM NORTH TO SOUTH BY EARLY EVENING. SNOW
LEVELS WILL DROP DOWN TO AROND 6000 FEET SO COULD SEE SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE BEFORE PCPN ENDS EARLY THIS
EVENING. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FNT WITH SOME
GUSTS IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE THIS AFTN OVER THE PLAINS. HIGH
TEMPS OVER MOST OF THE PLAINS WILL PEAK IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S BY MIDDAY AND THEN GRADUALLY FALL THRU THE AFTN.
FOR TONIGHT SOME OROGRAPHIC SHSN WILL CONTINUE IN THE MTNS THIS
EVENING BEFORE DECREASING BY MIDNIGHT AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM MDT SUN OCT 12 2014
A NEAR DUE NORTHERLY JET MAXIMUM IS PROGGED OVER THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY MORNING...IT IS AROUND 120 KNOTS. THE FLOW ALOFT DECREASES
MONDAY NIGHT...BECOMING MORE NORTHWESTERLY WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
MOVING INTO COLORADO. THE UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE STATE TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE EASTERN COLORADO
BORDER AT 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING. PRETTY STRONG DOWNWARD SYNOPTIC
SCALE ENERGY IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY...WEAKENING BUT STILL DOWNWARD
MONDAY NIGHT. THE QG VERTICAL VELOCITY FIELDS HAVE BENIGN ENERGY
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE NORTHERLY
ON MONDAY WITH NORMAL DRAINAGE/DOWNSLOPING MONDAY NIGHT. NORMAL
PATTERNS LOOK LIKELY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. FOR MOISTURE...
THERE IS SOME LINGERING MONDAY MORNING...BUT IT DRIES OUT THROUGH
THE DAY. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT LOOK PRETTY DRY. THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE PROGGED IN THE 0.20 TO 0.40 INCH
RANGE ALL FOUR PERIODS. THERE IS NO CAPE PROGGED ALL FOUR PERIODS.
THE QPF FIELDS HAVE NO MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION PROGGED MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL LINGER SOME MINOR POPS OVER THE HIGH
MOUNTAINS MONDAY MORNING...THEN NO POPS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. FOR
TEMPERATURES...MONDAY`S HIGHS ARE 1-2 C WARMER THAN TODAY`S.
TUESDAY`S HIGHS ARE 6-10 C WARMER THAN MONDAY`S. FOR THE LATER
DAYS...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS ON
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH AND
COOLER AIRMASS MOVES IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THERE IS
MORE UPPER RIDGING THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. MOISTURE IS
SPARSE ALL FOUR DAYS...NO POPS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 318 AM MDT SUN OCT 12 2014
NOT SURE ABOUT TIMING IF CDFNT THRU THE AREA. BOTH THE HRRR AND RUC
HAVE THE REAL FNT MOVING ACROSS AROUND 18Z WITH NWLY WINDS
DEVELOPING IN ADVANCE OF IT BY 15Z. BY 18Z WINDS THEN SHIFT TO THE
NORTH WITH SPEEDS IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE WITH SOME GUSTS FM 35-40
MPH THRU THE AFTN. AS FAR AS PCPN THERE WILL BE A 3 HOUR WINDOW
WHERE SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY PROBABLY IN THE 18Z-21Z TIME PERIOD
WITH DECREASING CHANCES TOWARDS 00Z. CEILINGS MAY DROP DOWN TO 5000
FT WITH THE SHOWERS WITH VISIBILITY AROUND 5 MILLES OR SO. BY EARLY
THIS EVENING WINDS SHOULD DECREASE INTO THE 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE FM
THE NORTH WITH IMPROVING CEILINGS. BY 06Z WINDS MAY BECOME MORE
NWLY WITH SPEEDS IN THE 10-15 MPH RANGE.&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT MDT
TONIGHT FOR COZ031-033-034.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RJK
LONG TERM...RPK
AVIATION...RPK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSONVILLE FL
645 AM EDT SUN OCT 12 2014
...NEAR RECORD HIGHS FOR INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AGAIN TODAY...
.CURRENTLY...
EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS HIGH PRESSURE (1018
MILLIBARS) CENTERED OVER OUR AREA. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM
THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN
GEORGIA AND ALABAMA. ALOFT...DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING WAS CENTERED
OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...WITH BROAD TROUGHING AND
STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PUSHING INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES. PATCHES OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG WERE BEGINNING
TO FORM AT 08Z PER SURFACE OBS. TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS AT 08Z
RANGED FROM THE 60S INLAND TO THE LOWER 70S AT THE COAST.
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
HRRR INDICATES THAT LOCALLY DENSE FOG DEVELOPING OVER THE
SUWANNEE VALLEY...ST. JOHN`S RIVER BASIN...AND INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS EXPANDING IN COVERAGE THROUGH
SUNRISE. A SHORT-FUSED DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FOR
PORTIONS OF OUR AREA THROUGH AROUND 14Z IF THE HRRR MODEL
VERIFIES. OTHERWISE...EXPECT ANOTHER SEASONABLY HOT AND DRY DAY
REGION- WIDE...AS DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING GRADUALLY PUSHES OFFSHORE
BUT MAINTAINS A SUBSIDENT AIR MASS OVER OUR REGION. WEAK SURFACE
RIDGING CENTERED OVER OUR REGION WILL GIVE WAY TO A STRONGER RIDGE
CENTERED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THAT WILL BUILD DOWN THE U.S.
EASTERN SEABOARD TONIGHT. WE EXPECT A RATHER MEAGER AND FLAT
CUMULUS FIELD TO DEVELOP ALONG AN INLAND-MOVING ATLANTIC SEA
BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SEA BREEZE SHOULD CAP HIGHS IN THE
MID/UPPER 80S OVER MUCH OF NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FL AS WELL
AS COASTAL SOUTHEAST GA...WITH NEAR RECORD HIGHS APPROACHING 90
DEGREES IN INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GA AND THE SUWANNEE VALLEY.
OUR LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN OVERNIGHT...WITH MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATING NEAR 15 KT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND 1000
FT. THESE WINDS WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD FOG
FORMATION...BUT LOW STRATUS CLOUDS APPEAR LIKELY. CONVERGENT SE
FLOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP A FEW LINES OF SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS POSSIBLY
ADVECTING ONSHORE INTO FLAGLER AND ST. JOHNS COUNTIES DURING THE
PREDAWN HOURS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER
60S INLAND TO THE LOW/MID 70S AT THE COAST.
MON/MON NIGHT...
TROUGHING WILL DEEPEN OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES...KEEPING A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE LOCALLY AS STRONG RIDGING SHIFTS
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER NORTH CENTRAL FL AND OUR WESTERN INTERIOR COUNTIES
AS DEEP-LAYERED MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT GRADUALLY INCREASES.
MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARDS A MORE AMPLIFIED AND SLOWER SOLUTION
FOR THE DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH A
STACKED CYCLONE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY ON MONDAY NIGHT. AFTER THE LOW STRATUS DECK ERODES DURING
THE MID-MORNING HOURS...EXPECT A HEALTHY CUMULUS FIELD WITH
INCREASING HIGH ALTITUDE CLOUDS ARRIVING ON MON EVENING. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY VALUES WILL PREVAIL...WITH UPPER
80S EXPECTED AT INLAND LOCATIONS AND LOW/MID 80S AT THE COAST AS
ONSHORE WINDS BECOME BREEZY AT TIMES. WARM AND MOIST CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL ON MON NIGHT WELL IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THAT
WILL BE ENTERING THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM
NEAR 70 INLAND TO THE MID 70S AT THE COAST.
TUE-WED...PRE-FRONTAL PRECIP WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS LATE TUESDAY AFTN/EVENING ESPECIALLY ACROSS
INLAND SE GA AND POSSIBLY THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY OF NE FL WHERE
850 MB WINDS WILL NEAR 35 KTS DURING PEAK HEATING. MODEL GUIDANCE
HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF PRECIP ONCE
AGAIN DELAYED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AND ONCE AGAIN GIVEN THE
RUN-TO-RUN INCONSISTENCY WITH TIMING OF PRE-FRONTAL PRECIP LOWERED
RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO THE 60-70% RANGE WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN
CHANCES TUE AFTN THROUGH TUE NIGHT WITH PRECIP EXITING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM NW-SE NOT UNTIL WED MORNING.
SYNOPTIC SITUATION STILL FAVORS A POTENTIAL `SPLIT` IN PRE-FRONTAL
SQUALL LINE TUE EVENING WITH AN AREA OF HIGHER RAIN CHANCES OF SE
GA WHERE STRONGER DYNAMICS WILL LIFT NE...WHILE ANOTHER CLUSTER OF
PRECIP WILL LIKELY HUG THE GULF COAST REGION WITH SOME PROGRESSION
INLAND OVER THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY. INCREASED TEMPS OVER NE FL
AND ALONG THE COAST TUE WITH WARM AND BREEZY SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 80S...WITH WARMER TEMPS
TUE NIGHT DUE TO SLOWER FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH MINS IN THE LOWER 60S
SE GA TO NEAR 70 ALONG THE COAST AND OUR SOUTHERN FL ZONES.
.LONG TERM...THU THROUGH SUN...
COOLER AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH THE EXTENDED MODEL
SUITE NOW IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BOTH THE GFS40 AND DGEX NOW
IN LINE WITH RECENT RUNS OF THE ECMWF. MODELS DEPICT DRY WNW UPPER
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH WITH MEAN LAYER TROUGHING OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS...WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD
FROM THE GULF COAST REGION THU INTO THE WEEKEND. NEXT WEEKEND
MODELS DIFFER WITH THE TIMING OF A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
SLIDING SOUTHWARD DOWN THE ATLANTIC COAST...WITH THE GFS LAGGING
THE ECMWF/DGEX WITH THE BOUNDARY PASSAGE LATE SAT INTO SUN. FOR
NOW LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF/DGEX SOLUTIONS WITH A NNE FLOW SUN
TRAILING THE BACKDOOR FRONT. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL VALUES WITH
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH LOWS IN THE
MID/UPPER 50S INLAND TO MID 60S COAST WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOW 80S.
&&
.AVIATION...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE THROUGH 13Z AT
VQQ...WITH IFR CIGS EXPECTED AT GNV. A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIFR
CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE BEFORE 13Z AT JAX. VFR WILL PREVAIL AT SSI
AND CRG. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO RAPIDLY IMPROVE AT THE NORTHEAST
FLORIDA TERMINALS AFTER 13Z...WITH AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE BRINGING
EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS UP TO NEAR 10 KNOTS AFTER 18Z. SOUTHEAST
WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE WILL STRENGTHEN THIS EVENING...WITH
SPEEDS OF 15-20 KNOTS EXPECTED ABOVE 500 FT AFTER 00Z.
&&
.MARINE...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME
ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT PERSISTS OVER
OUR REGION. SWELLS FROM DISTANT TROPICAL STORM FAY WILL RESULT IN
COMBINED SEAS OF 3-5 FEET OFFSHORE AND 2-4 FEET NEAR SHORE. A
TIGHTENING GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST PRESSES DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN TO CAUTION CRITERIA IN THE
OFFSHORE WATERS THIS EVENING AND MONDAY...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO
3-6 FT. CAUTION LEVEL WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED BY MONDAY EVENING
IN THE NEAR SHORE WATERS.
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON TUESDAY WILL
KEEP A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE...WITH SE/S WINDS AT CAUTION
LEVELS OFFSHORE...WITH ADVISORY LEVEL SEAS EXPECTED OFFSHORE.
PERIODS OF NEAR CAUTION WIND SPEEDS WITH 3-5 FT SEAS ARE EXPECTED
IN THE NEAR SHORE WATERS ON TUES/TUES NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS ON WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH OFFSHORE
WINDS OVERSPREADING THE AREA BY MIDDAY WED. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE ON THURS AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR
REGION FROM THE WEST.
RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK EXPECTED BY THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO
BUILDING LONG-PERIOD EASTERLY SWELLS FROM DISTANT TROPICAL STORM
FAY REACHING OUR WATERS ALONG WITH ONSHORE WINDS DEVELOPING
DURING THE AFTERNOON OUTGOING TIDE.
&&
.CLIMO...
DAILY RECORD HIGHS TODAY:
SUN-HIGH
--------
JACKSONVILLE 92(2009)
GAINESVILLE 92(1911)
ALMA 91(2009)
ST SIMONS ISLAND 87(2006)
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 90 67 87 71 / 10 10 10 10
SSI 85 72 81 73 / 0 10 10 20
JAX 87 69 86 71 / 0 10 10 10
SGJ 86 72 84 73 / 0 20 20 10
GNV 89 66 88 70 / 0 10 20 10
OCF 89 67 89 71 / 0 10 20 10
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
NELSON/ENYEDI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSONVILLE FL
438 AM EDT SUN OCT 12 2014
...NEAR RECORD HIGHS FOR INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AGAIN TODAY...
.CURRENTLY...
EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS HIGH PRESSURE (1018
MILLIBARS) CENTERED OVER OUR AREA. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM
THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN
GEORGIA AND ALABAMA. ALOFT...DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING WAS CENTERED
OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...WITH BROAD TROUGHING AND
STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PUSHING INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES. PATCHES OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG WERE BEGINNING
TO FORM AT 08Z PER SURFACE OBS. TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS AT 08Z
RANGED FROM THE 60S INLAND TO THE LOWER 70S AT THE COAST.
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
HRRR INDICATES THAT LOCALLY DENSE FOG DEVELOPING OVER THE
SUWANNEE VALLEY...ST. JOHN`S RIVER BASIN...AND INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS EXPANDING IN COVERAGE THROUGH
SUNRISE. A SHORT-FUSED DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FOR
PORTIONS OF OUR AREA THROUGH AROUND 14Z IF THE HRRR MODEL
VERIFIES. OTHERWISE...EXPECT ANOTHER SEASONABLY HOT AND DRY DAY
REGION- WIDE...AS DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING GRADUALLY PUSHES OFFSHORE
BUT MAINTAINS A SUBSIDENT AIR MASS OVER OUR REGION. WEAK SURFACE
RIDGING CENTERED OVER OUR REGION WILL GIVE WAY TO A STRONGER RIDGE
CENTERED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THAT WILL BUILD DOWN THE U.S.
EASTERN SEABOARD TONIGHT. WE EXPECT A RATHER MEAGER AND FLAT
CUMULUS FIELD TO DEVELOP ALONG AN INLAND-MOVING ATLANTIC SEA
BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SEA BREEZE SHOULD CAP HIGHS IN THE
MID/UPPER 80S OVER MUCH OF NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FL AS WELL
AS COASTAL SOUTHEAST GA...WITH NEAR RECORD HIGHS APPROACHING 90
DEGREES IN INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GA AND THE SUWANNEE VALLEY.
OUR LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN OVERNIGHT...WITH MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATING NEAR 15 KT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND 1000
FT. THESE WINDS WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD FOG
FORMATION...BUT LOW STRATUS CLOUDS APPEAR LIKELY. CONVERGENT SE
FLOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP A FEW LINES OF SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS POSSIBLY
ADVECTING ONSHORE INTO FLAGLER AND ST. JOHNS COUNTIES DURING THE
PREDAWN HOURS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER
60S INLAND TO THE LOW/MID 70S AT THE COAST.
MON/MON NIGHT...
TROUGHING WILL DEEPEN OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES...KEEPING A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE LOCALLY AS STRONG RIDGING SHIFTS
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER NORTH CENTRAL FL AND OUR WESTERN INTERIOR COUNTIES
AS DEEP-LAYERED MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT GRADUALLY INCREASES.
MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARDS A MORE AMPLIFIED AND SLOWER SOLUTION
FOR THE DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH A
STACKED CYCLONE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY ON MONDAY NIGHT. AFTER THE LOW STRATUS DECK ERODES DURING
THE MID-MORNING HOURS...EXPECT A HEALTHY CUMULUS FIELD WITH
INCREASING HIGH ALTITUDE CLOUDS ARRIVING ON MON EVENING. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY VALUES WILL PREVAIL...WITH UPPER
80S EXPECTED AT INLAND LOCATIONS AND LOW/MID 80S AT THE COAST AS
ONSHORE WINDS BECOME BREEZY AT TIMES. WARM AND MOIST CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL ON MON NIGHT WELL IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THAT
WILL BE ENTERING THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM
NEAR 70 INLAND TO THE MID 70S AT THE COAST.
TUE-WED...PRE-FRONTAL PRECIP WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS LATE TUESDAY AFTN/EVENING ESPECIALLY ACROSS
INLAND SE GA AND POSSIBLY THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY OF NE FL WHERE
850 MB WINDS WILL NEAR 35 KTS DURING PEAK HEATING. MODEL GUIDANCE
HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF PRECIP ONCE
AGAIN DELAYED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AND ONCE AGAIN GIVEN THE
RUN-TO-RUN INCONSISTENCY WITH TIMING OF PRE-FRONTAL PRECIP LOWERED
RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO THE 60-70% RANGE WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN
CHANCES TUE AFTN THROUGH TUE NIGHT WITH PRECIP EXITING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM NW-SE NOT UNTIL WED MORNING.
SYNOPTIC SITUATION STILL FAVORS A POTENTIAL `SPLIT` IN PRE-FRONTAL
SQUALL LINE TUE EVENING WITH AN AREA OF HIGHER RAIN CHANCES OF SE
GA WHERE STRONGER DYNAMICS WILL LIFT NE...WHILE ANOTHER CLUSTER OF
PRECIP WILL LIKELY HUG THE GULF COAST REGION WITH SOME PROGRESSION
INLAND OVER THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY. INCREASED TEMPS OVER NE FL
AND ALONG THE COAST TUE WITH WARM AND BREEZY SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 80S...WITH WARMER TEMPS
TUE NIGHT DUE TO SLOWER FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH MINS IN THE LOWER 60S
SE GA TO NEAR 70 ALONG THE COAST AND OUR SOUTHERN FL ZONES.
.LONG TERM...THU THROUGH SUN...
COOLER AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH THE EXTENDED MODEL
SUITE NOW IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BOTH THE GFS40 AND DGEX NOW
IN LINE WITH RECENT RUNS OF THE ECMWF. MODELS DEPICT DRY WNW UPPER
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH WITH MEAN LAYER TROUGHING OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS...WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD
FROM THE GULF COAST REGION THU INTO THE WEEKEND. NEXT WEEKEND
MODELS DIFFER WITH THE TIMING OF A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
SLIDING SOUTHWARD DOWN THE ATLANTIC COAST...WITH THE GFS LAGGING
THE ECMWF/DGEX WITH THE BOUNDARY PASSAGE LATE SAT INTO SUN. FOR
NOW LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF/DGEX SOLUTIONS WITH A NNE FLOW SUN
TRAILING THE BACKDOOR FRONT. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL VALUES WITH
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH LOWS IN THE
MID/UPPER 50S INLAND TO MID 60S COAST WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOW 80S.
&&
.AVIATION...
LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 13Z AT VQQ AND GNV. A
PERIOD OF LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 11Z-13Z AT JAX
AND CRG. VFR WILL PREVAIL AT SSI. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO RAPIDLY
IMPROVE AT THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA TERMINALS AFTER 13Z...WITH AN
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE BRINGING EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS UP TO NEAR 10
KNOTS AFTER 18Z. SOUTHEAST WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE WILL
STRENGTHEN THIS EVENING...WITH SPEEDS OF 15-20 KNOTS EXPECTED
ABOVE 500 FT AFTER 00Z.
&&
.MARINE...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME
ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT PERSISTS OVER
OUR REGION. SWELLS FROM DISTANT TROPICAL STORM FAY WILL RESULT IN
COMBINED SEAS OF 3-5 FEET OFFSHORE AND 2-4 FEET NEAR SHORE. A
TIGHTENING GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST PRESSES DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN TO CAUTION CRITERIA IN THE
OFFSHORE WATERS THIS EVENING AND MONDAY...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO
3-6 FT. CAUTION LEVEL WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED BY MONDAY EVENING
IN THE NEAR SHORE WATERS.
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON TUESDAY WILL
KEEP A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE...WITH SE/S WINDS AT CAUTION
LEVELS OFFSHORE...WITH ADVISORY LEVEL SEAS EXPECTED OFFSHORE.
PERIODS OF NEAR CAUTION WIND SPEEDS WITH 3-5 FT SEAS ARE EXPECTED
IN THE NEAR SHORE WATERS ON TUES/TUES NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS ON WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH OFFSHORE
WINDS OVERSPREADING THE AREA BY MIDDAY WED. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE ON THURS AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR
REGION FROM THE WEST.
RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK EXPECTED BY THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO
BUILDING LONG-PERIOD EASTERLY SWELLS FROM DISTANT TROPICAL STORM
FAY REACHING OUR WATERS ALONG WITH ONSHORE WINDS DEVELOPING
DURING THE AFTERNOON OUTGOING TIDE.
&&
.CLIMO...
DAILY RECORD HIGHS TODAY:
SUN-HIGH
--------
JACKSONVILLE 92(2009)
GAINESVILLE 92(1911)
ALMA 91(2009)
ST SIMONS ISLAND 87(2006)
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 90 67 87 71 / 10 10 10 10
SSI 85 72 81 73 / 0 10 10 20
JAX 87 69 86 71 / 0 10 10 10
SGJ 86 72 84 73 / 0 20 20 10
GNV 89 66 88 70 / 0 10 20 10
OCF 89 67 89 71 / 0 10 20 10
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
NELSON/ENYEDI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
335 AM EDT SUN OCT 12 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
07Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SPLIT FLOW
PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS. POWERFUL NORTHERN STREAM JET ENERGY IS
CURRENTLY SPREADING INLAND OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...CARRYING THE
SEEDS OF A SIGNIFICANT AMPLIFICATION TO THE PATTERN THAT WILL BE
OCCURRING ACROSS THE MID-SECTION OF THE COUNTRY DURING THE NEXT 24
TO 36 HOURS. FLOW SPLITS OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WITH ONE BRANCH
RIDGING NORTH INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA AND THE OTHER DROPPING SOUTH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. DOWNSTREAM FLOW THEN BECOMES CONVERGENT
ONCE AGAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE COUNTRY AND RIDES TO
THE NORTHEAST OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
OUR REGION IS FAR REMOVED FROM ALL THAT...AS WE LIE UNDERNEATH AN
EXPANSE OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERING AN AREA EXTENDING FROM
THE CENTRAL GULF TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND EASTWARD TO THE
BAHAMAS. SYNOPTIC SUPPRESSION UNDER THIS RIDGE IS KEEPING OUR COLUMN
QUITE DRY PER WV IMAGERY AND 12/00Z KTBW SOUNDING PROFILE...WHICH
MEASURED OUR PW AT JUST OVER 1" THIS PAST EVENING. DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS ARE QUITE LARGE THROUGH THE EXTENT OF THE COLUMN...AND
CURRENT TIME HEIGHT PROJECTIONS DO NOT SHOW MUCH CHANGE IN THIS
PROFILE THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY.
AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM OFF THE
NE FLORIDA COAST BACK WESTWARD ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR. A STRONGER
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS BEGINNING TO BUILD DOWN THE EASTERN
SEABOARD AND WILL OVERTAKE THIS WEAKER HIGH BY THE END OF THE
DAY...BECOMING THE DOMINANT LOW LEVEL INFLUENCE INTO THE DAY ON
MONDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
IF YOU ENJOYED THE WEATHER ON SATURDAY...THEN THE FORECAST FOR TODAY
WILL MAKE YOU HAPPY. ALTHOUGH THE PATTERN IS BEGINNING TO MOVE...THE
OVERALL SYNOPTICS FROM THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND WILL STILL BE
IN PLACE FOR YOUR SUNDAY. STACKED RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH SYNOPTIC SUPPRESSION HOLDING BACK ANY
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE RETURN ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THE ONE
DIFFERENCE WILL BE THAT THE RIDGE CENTER WILL HAVE SHIFTED TO OUR
EAST BY LATE IN THE DAY...SLIGHTLY LESSENING THE OVERALL
SUPPRESSION. GENERALLY SPEAKING THE DRYNESS/HOSTILITY OF THE COLUMN
TOWARD DEEP CONVECTION IS JUST TOO GREAT TO OVERCOME TODAY FOR PROB
95% OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND ONCE AGAIN WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES AT
OR BELOW 10% FOR ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES OF CHARLOTTE AND LEE
COUNTIES. IF THERE IS GOING TO BE ENOUGH MOISTENING OF THE COLUMN TO
ALLOW FOR A SHOWER OR TWO...IT WILL BE DOWN OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD
OF THE PENINSULA. TIME-HEIGHT PROGS SHOW SOME "SLIGHT" MOISTENING
DOWN TOWARD FORT MYERS BY EARLY EVENING...BUT ANYTHING NOTICEABLE IS
REALLY CONFINED TO AREAS SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST ZONES. LARGE SCALE
CONVECTIVE SCHEME MODELS AND VIRTUALLY ALL THE HIRES CONVECTION
ALLOWING MODELS THAT THIS FORECASTER CAN GET HIS HANDS ON ARE
SHOWING DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPING DOWN TOWARD NAPLES...AND JUST
BARELY MIGRATING NORTH ENOUGH TO SCRAPE OUR FAR SOUTHERN ZONES.
KEEPING IN MIND THAT CAM MODELS ARE OFTEN A TAD AGGRESSIVE WITH
PULSE TYPE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE...GOING TO KEEP THINGS
CONSERVATIVE...SAY 20-30% POPS...AFTER 20Z. NORTH OF CHARLOTTE
COUNTY...NONE OF THE CONVECTIVE SCHEMES ARE FIRING (AS WOULD BE
EXPECTED GIVEN THE FORECAST COLUMN)...AND AS WAS MENTIONED A COUPLE
NIGHTS AGO...IT IS VERY TELLING OF THE SITUATION WHEN NOT ONE OF THE
CONVECTIVE SCHEMES ASSOCIATED WITH THE SREF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE
TRIGGERED. THAT ALONE GIVES GOOD CONFIDENCE IN A DRY FORECAST
ANYWHERE FURTHER NORTH.
IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...SEE LITTLE REASON TO NOT GO WITH A
PERSISTENCE TYPE FORECAST. STATISTICAL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN GENERALLY
RUNNING A COUPLE OF DEGREES TOO WARM THE PAST FEW DAYS...SO WILL
START WITH A BLEND OF THE MAV AND MET...AND THEN BACK THINGS OFF A
COUPLE OF DEGREES. GIVEN THE EXPECTED DIURNAL MIXING EXTENT...A
WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURE FORECAST IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 SEEMS
REASONABLE. THE OVERALL GRADIENT IS LIGHT TODAY...SO DO ANTICIPATE
WINDS SHIFTING ONSHORE AT MOST LOCATIONS FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON.
THE SHELF WATERS ARE NOT QUITE AS WARM AS THEY WERE A MONTH OR 2
AGO...SO TEMPERATURES AT THE BEACHES MAY BE HELD DOWN MORE IN THE
MIDDLE 80S...ESPECIALLY AFTER THE WIND SHIFT.
IF THERE ARE ANY SHOWERS DOWN TOWARD FORT MYERS EARLY IN THE
EVENING...THEY WILL MIGRATE OFFSHORE QUICKLY WITH SUNSET.
THEREAFTER...EXPECTING A DRY AND SEASONABLE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE
GRADIENT WILL BE STARTING TO TIGHTEN BY THIS TIME BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD...AND DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE MORE MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER
SHOULD HELP KEEP THINGS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THE PREVIOUS
NIGHTS...ESPECIALLY UP OVER THE NATURE COAST. THE CYCLOGENESIS
TAKING PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO AN
AMPLIFYING STRONG/DEEP...AND SHARP UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE
MID-SECTION OF THE COUNTRY. EVENTUALLY THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING OUR
NEXT COLD FRONT AND BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN BY TUESDAY/TUESDAY
NIGHT...HOWEVER...MORE DETAILS ON THAT PORTION OF THE FORECAST CAN
BE FOUND IN THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION BELOW.
MONDAY WILL BE THE TRANSITION DAY BETWEEN THIS DRY AND QUIET STRETCH
OF WEATHER WE ARE CURRENTLY IN...AND OUR NEXT CHANCE OF MORE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL BEGINNING TUESDAY. OVERALL...THE PROGRESS OF THE
PATTERN EVOLUTION HAS SLOWED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST 24 OF MODEL
GUIDANCE...AND IT NOW APPEARS AS THOUGH MONDAY MAY STAY GENERALLY ON
THE DRY SIDE FOR MOST OF US. UPPER RIDGING LOOKS TO HOLD ON JUST
LONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT THE BIGGEST MOISTURE RETURN SURGE UNTIL
MONDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...THE STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL PREVENT ANY SEA-BREEZE
FORMATION...OR AT LEAST PREVENT ANY BOUNDARY FROM COMING ASHORE. WE
ALSO LOOK TO STILL BE WELL AHEAD OF ANY LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS/
SYNOPTIC SUPPORT FOR ASCENT. THEREFORE...ANY SCT LATE DAY SHOWER
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE COASTAL ZONES/MARINE ZONES TO THE
SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY ALONG THE STALLED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE GRADIENT.
EVEN FOR THESE LOCATIONS DO NOT ANTICIPATE A WHOLE LOT OF
ACTIVITY...AND GENERALLY NOT UNTIL AFTER 19-20Z. ANYTHING THAT DOES
FORM WILL QUICKLY MIGRATE OFFSHORE. TEMPTED AT THIS POINT TO KEEP
THE I-4 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD AND THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN ZONES RAIN FREE
FOR ONE MORE DAY ON MONDAY...BUT WILL EXTEND A SLIGHT CHANCE 20% POP
UP THE COAST THROUGH TAMPA BAY TO PASCO COUNTY (LATE IN THE DAY) IN
CASE THE MOISTURE RETURN IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN CURRENTLY
SIMULATED. MORE OF THE SAME IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. WELL...THAT IS THE SHORT TERM
WEATHER STORY FOR NOW...HAVE A GREAT SECOND HALF OF YOUR WEEKEND!
&&
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)...
THE PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST TO THE TX COASTAL PLAIN...A SURFACE LOW OVER THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT DOWN INTO THE FAR
WESTERN GULF...AND DEEP LAYER RIDGING OFF THE U.S. COAST FROM NEW
ENGLAND TO FL. DURING TUE AND WED THESE FEATURES SLIDE EASTWARD WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENING INTO A LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY REGIONS. THE FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE GULF AND INTO SOUTHERN
FL BY WED NIGHT. FOR THU THROUGH SAT THE UPPER LOW PIVOTS ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA AS THE FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE
SOUTHEAST FL THU NIGHT. MEANWHILE DEEP LAYER RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST CONUS AND SHIFTS INTO THE GULF REGION. THE LATEST
GFS/ECMWF/CMC MODELS HAVE CONVERGED INTO A FAIRLY SIMILAR SOLUTION
WITH ONLY MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES.
THE PRESENT FORECAST PHILOSOPHY IS TO BLEND GFS/ECMWF/CMC. SOUTHEAST
FLOW WILL INCREASE SOME AS IT BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE POOLING OUT OVER THE GULF AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE SHOWERS AND STORMS ON THE GULF MON NIGHT THAT
SPREAD ACROSS THE LAND AREAS DURING TUE. AS THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW AND
FRONT WORK EAST SHOWER/STORMS COVERAGE INCREASE INTO LIKELY TUE
NIGHT THEN GRADUALLY TAPER OFF AS THEY EXIT EAST BY THU NIGHT. SOME
OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME ROBUST TUE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOWEVER THE BEST DYNAMICS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY TO THE NORTH...
KEEPING THE THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS LOW. THE RIDGING MOVING INTO
THE GULF WILL BRING IN DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR FOR THE END
OF THE PERIOD WITH NO RAIN EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES DECREASE BUT ONLY
DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL. HOWEVER THE DRIER AIR WILL ALLOW THE
TEMPERATURES TO FEEL MORE COMFORTABLE.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA THIS MORNING. A PERIOD OF MVFR GROUND FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS...MAINLY FOR KLAL AND KPGD. ANY EARLY MORNING VIS
RESTRICTIONS WILL END QUICKLY WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. JUST THE OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A POP UP
SHOWER FOR KFMY/KRSW AFTER 20Z. LOCAL SEA-BREEZE WILL MAKE WINDS
SHIFT ONSHORE FOR THE TERMINALS BORDERING TAMPA BAY BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT BACK TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION FOR
ALL TERMINALS SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL BE REINFORCED LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS STRONGER RIDGING BUILDS DOWN THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. THE
GRADIENT WILL THEN TIGHTEN BETWEEN THIS HIGH TO OUR NORTHEAST AND
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED APPROACHING COLD FRONT
WELL TO OUR WEST. PERIODS OF CAUTIONARY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS ARE
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY UNTIL THIS FRONT CROSSES THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. EXPECT A SHIFT
IN WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH DURING THE MIDDLE PORTION
OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS EASTWARD ACROSS THE
GULF OF MEXICO IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE REINFORCED FROM THE NORTH LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE WEST EARLY IN THE
WEEK AND PASS THROUGH THE REGION LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY WITH JUST A FEW SCT
SHOWER AROUND ON MONDAY. HIGHER RAIN CHANCES ACCOMPANY THE FRONT FOR
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...HOWEVER LDSI
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE HIGH SIDE FOR MONDAY.
PATCHY GROUND FOG AROUND THIS MORNING WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER
SUNRISE. THERE IS LESS POTENTIAL FOR FOG TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
AND EVEN LESS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 88 73 90 74 / 0 0 20 10
FMY 89 75 91 73 / 20 20 40 10
GIF 90 71 90 70 / 10 0 10 10
SRQ 88 73 90 74 / 0 0 30 10
BKV 91 68 91 72 / 0 0 10 10
SPG 89 76 89 76 / 0 0 20 10
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WX...MROCZKA
LONG TERM...RUDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
1024 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2014
.UPDATE...
THE LATEST HRRR 3KM MODEL RUN CONTINUES TO SHOW THE FIRST ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND TSTMS MOVING INTO NORTH AND WEST GA AS EARLY AS 2 AM
EDT TUE. THE MAIN SQUALL LINE NOW IN CENTRAL AL SHOULD APPROACH
THE GA STATE LINE BY 6 AM EDT MOVING ACROSS GA THROUGH THE DAY.
EXPECTED WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITH ISOLATED SEVERE TSTMS
AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS UPWARD 5 TO 10 PERCENT
TO MATCH UP BETTER WITH EXPECTED QPF AMOUNTS.
&&
16
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 810 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2014/
..SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH STRONG DAMAGING WINDS...ISOLATED
TORNADOES...AND FLASH FLOODING AS MAIN THREATS WITH TWO ROUNDS OF
STORMS EARLY MORNING TUESDAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM CONTINUES TO BE ROBUST
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST TWO WAVES OF ACTIVITY WITH THE FIRST OF TWO SQUALL LINES
MOVING IN EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH A SECONDARY LINE PUSHING
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
FOR THE FIRST WAVE...MODEL CONSENSUS PUSHES THE LINE OF STORMS
ACROSS THE GA/AL LINE BETWEEN 4 AND 6 AM. A FEW MODELS SUGGEST SOME
ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THIS FIRST SQUALL LINE COULD BEGIN AS EARLY AS 2
AM. CONFIDENCE WITH THIS ACTIVITY IS MEDIUM GIVEN QUESTIONS THAT
STILL EXIST ON THE TIMING...AVAILABLE INGREDIENTS...AND OVERALL
INTENSITY. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT CONVECTION DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTH
WILL CUT OFF THE FLOW OF NECESSARY INGREDIENTS FARTHER NORTH.
REGARDLESS...GIVEN 950 MB WINDS...AMPLE SRH...AND EVEN MODEST
CAPE...EXPECT DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES TO BE THE MAIN
CONCERNS...PARTICULARLY IN BOWING PORTIONS OF THE LINE OR IN
DISCRETE STORMS DEVELOPING OUT AHEAD OF IT. AS OF NOW SPC DOES HAVE
THE ENTIRE ARE OUTLOOKED IN A SLIGHT RISK THROUGH THE DAY.
HAVE CONTINUED WITH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS BEGINNING IN THE
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE BY 06Z AND PROGRESSING EASTWARD
THROUGH THE MORNING.
THE SECOND SQUALL LINE LOOKS TO PUSH INTO WESTERN GEORGIA BY 16-17Z
/11-12PM/ AND MOVE INTO THE ATL METRO AREA BY 2-3PM. MODELS DIFFER
SOMEWHAT ON THE LEVEL OF CLEARING BETWEEN THE TWO LINES...WITH
SEVERAL MODELS ADVERTISING ENOUGH COULD COVER AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION
TO SIGNIFICANTLY LIMIT THE INSTABILITY FOR THE SECOND SQUALL LINE.
HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT AS THIS LINE PUSHES
THROUGH THE CWA DURING PRIME HEATING TIME /MID-LATE AFTERNOON/ THAT
WITH A BETTER SUPPLY OF AVAILABLE INSTABILITIES AND
INGREDIENTS...WITH RISK OF SEVERE STORMS APPEARS GREATER.
SOUTHERLY FLOW ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE LINES OF ACTIVITY WILL KEEP
THE CONVECTION FROM PROGRESSING QUICKLY. EXPECT THAT IN SLOW MOVING
STORMS WILL DUMP HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE SAME AREA...RESULTING IN
POTENTIAL FLOODING. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FOR 2 AM TUESDAY TO 2 AM WEDNESDAY FOR PORTIONS OF NW AND NORTHERN
GEORGIA. SEE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.
WINDS OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION WILL STILL REMAIN HIGH...WITH SPEEDS OF
10-15 MPH AND GUSTS TO 25 MPH.
PLEASE KEEP IN MIND THE TIMING OF THESE STORMS...PARTICULARLY THAT
MODELS SHOW SOME OF THE HIGHEST RISK DURING MORNING AND AFTERNOON
RUSH HOUR.
31
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SOME SUBTLE DISCREPANCIES LATE IN THE PERIOD TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND
THOUGH NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO CHANGE FORECAST. MADE LITTLE CHANGE
TO PERIOD AND PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
BAKER
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 437 AM EDT MON OCT 13 2014/
CLOSED LOW MEANDERS ACROSS THE MIDWEST INTO WEDNESDAY. EXTENDED
MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON TIMING THE FRONT EXITS THE FORECAST
AREA. GFS CONTINUES 6 HOURS FASTER THAN ECMWF/UKMET...WITH FRONT
EXITING BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER GFS CONTINUES TO TREND TOWARD
THE ECMWF AS THE WRAPAROUND SHOWERS IN NORTH GA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS
PAN OUT...HAVE TRIED TO TAKE THE MIDDLE GROUND IN EXTENDED
FORECASTS AS FAR AS POPS/WEATHER FORECASTS...WITH LINGERING SHOWERS
EAST AND NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT UPPER LOW WILL
SLOWLY LIFT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH SOME
CLOUDS LINGERING IN NORTH GEORGIA. GENERALLY DRY FORECAST FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEAST
BY NEXT WEEKEND. THERE ARE ENOUGH DISCREPANCIES IN THE EXTENDED
MODELS THAT OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS LACKING. EXPECT TO SEE
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL BEHIND THE FRONT FOR MIDWEEK BEFORE
MODERATING BACK TOWARDS NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.
ATWELL
AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF SQUALL LINE IN WEST
AL AT THIS TIME. EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TO MVFR RANGE WITH -SHRA AFTER
05Z LOWERING TO IFR CIGS WITH MAIN TSRA LINE AROUND 11Z. THE
CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR BY 15Z AND CONTINUE AS ANOTHER TSRA LINE
MOVES THROUGH THE TAFS SITES AFTER 18Z. WINDS WILL BE SSE NEAR 10KT
TONIGHT WITH GUSTS NEAR 20KT...THEN SWITCH TO SSW IN THE AFTERNOON.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.
16
HYDROLOGY...
EARLY TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY QPF IS ABOVE 2 INCHES ACROSS NORTH
AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WITH 1-1.5 FROM THE SE ATL METRO
AREA THROUGH MACON...AND BELOW 1 INCH FARTHER SE. DUE TO THE
RAINFALL NORTHERN GEORGIA HAS OBSERVED OVER THE LAST WEEK...THIS
AREA IS ALREADY PRIMED FOR POSSIBLE FLOODING ISSUES. FFG IS LOWER IN
THIS AREA...AND SO HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FOR NW GEORGIA COUNTIES. SITE SPECIFIC MODELS INDICATE THAT WITH THE
FORECAST AMOUNT OF PRECIP...SEVERAL RIVERS COULD SEE BANKFULL OR
MINOR FLOODING CONDITIONS...PARTICULARLY IN THE CONASAUGA RIVER AND
LOOKOUT CREEK BASINS.
31
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 67 73 56 70 / 70 100 90 20
ATLANTA 67 74 56 69 / 100 100 40 10
BLAIRSVILLE 62 70 51 65 / 100 100 70 30
CARTERSVILLE 68 74 53 68 / 100 100 40 20
COLUMBUS 71 77 56 75 / 90 100 30 10
GAINESVILLE 66 71 55 67 / 90 100 60 30
MACON 71 78 56 77 / 70 100 60 10
ROME 68 75 52 67 / 100 100 20 20
PEACHTREE CITY 69 75 52 69 / 100 100 40 10
VIDALIA 70 82 65 78 / 20 80 80 10
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 AM EDT TUESDAY THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BARTOW...CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...
CHEROKEE...DADE...FANNIN...FLOYD...GILMER...GORDON...MURRAY...
PICKENS...TOWNS...UNION...WALKER...WHITFIELD.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....SNELSON
AVIATION...16
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
653 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
510 PM CDT
A SEGMENTED LINE OF STORMS FROM PONTIAC TO FAR SOUTHEAST IL WILL
MOVE NORTH-NORTHEAST THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...EVOLVING WITH THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE MOIST PLUME. WITHIN THIS OVERALL CONVECTIVE LINE
THERE HAVE BEEN A HANDFUL OF EMBEDDED MESOSCALE LINE-ECHO WAVE
PATTERNS IN CENTRAL IL...INCLUDING ONE WHICH PERSISTED FOR OVER AN
HOUR PRODUCING A REPORTED TORNADO NOT FAR FROM DECATUR. THIS
PARTICULAR CIRCULATION HAS SINCE WEAKENED...BUT FURTHER SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST THERE ARE REDEVELOPING CIRCULATIONS...AS WELL AS SOME
INFLOW KINKS IN STORM SEGMENTS THAT WILL BEAR WATCHING.
MODIFIED RAP SOUNDINGS FOR NEAR GIBSON CITY...WATSEKA...AND
KANKAKEE...INDICATE SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY OF A FEW HUNDRED
JOULES. THIS IS PRESENT THROUGH 7-8 PM AS LOW-LEVEL TEMPS AND
THETA-E ARE INCREASING AS ADVECTION DRIVES THE WARM SECTOR. THE
SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW UNDERNEATH A STRONG 45-55 KT LOW-LEVEL JET
SAMPLED BY AREA VAD PROFILERS WILL KEEP LOW-LEVEL SHEAR HIGH AND AT
LEAST KEEP SOME VORTICITY GENERATION POTENTIAL. IN ADDITION...LCLS
ARE LOW AT ONLY 2000-2500 FT. WHILE THE OVERALL THREAT REMAINS
ISOLATED...DEPENDING ON STORM TRENDS THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...THE
TORNADO WATCH MAY NEED TO BE LOCALLY EXPANDED INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA.
BESIDES CIRCULATIONS...THE SEGMENTS OF STORMS COULD SIMPLY BRING
ISOLATED STRONG WINDS GUSTS. HAVE SEEN THIS FURTHER SOUTH IN THE
ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL.
MTF
&&
.DISCUSSION...
258 PM CDT
THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SLOW MOVING CLOSED UPPER
LOW WHICH WILL RESULT IN WET AND ACTIVE WEATHER OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.
//SHORT TERM...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
THIS AFTERNOON...A DEEP TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
ACROSS CENTRAL CONUS WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW SPINNING AT THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI WITH A WARM FRONT DRAPED
ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS. DEWPOINTS IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE
OUTLOOK AREA ALONG THE WARM FRONT HAVE RISEN INTO THE MID/UPPER
60S WHERE A FEW HUNDRED J/KG CAPE IS PRESENT. THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...STRENGTHENING WINDS ALOFT
ARE EXPECTED WITH BOTH THE UPPER JET AND LOW LEVEL JET WHICH WILL
RESULT IN STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES AND STRONG MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION WITH PWATS RISING TO BETWEEN 1.6 AND 1.7
INCHES BY THIS EVENING. THE SURFACE LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT NE OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO WITH WHAT SHOULD BE TWO AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN
BIFURCATING THE CWA. THE FIRST AXIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP
AND PERSISTENT AREA OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND STRONG MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ON THE NOSE OF A LOW LEVEL JET WHICH WILL STRETCH FROM
ROUGHLY SOUTH CENTRAL IA INTO NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL IL THEN
CENTRAL WI. PRECIPITATION INTENSITY WITH THIS AREA SHOULD PEAK
OVER NORTH CENTRAL IL THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MID EVENING...THEN
THE BETTER FORCING WILL SHIFT NORTH INTO WISCONSIN THEREAFTER. THE
SECOND AREA OF CONCERN STRETCHES FROM FAR EAST CENTRAL IL/NW
INDIANA WHERE VERY MODEST INSTABILITY AND STRONG SHEAR WILL
SUPPORT LINEAR CONVECTION. GIVEN THE MOIST SOUNDINGS...THESE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. WHILE
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY...
ESPECIALLY AS WE MOVE BEYOND MOST FAVORABLE DIURNAL TIMING...THERE
IS A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH THE MAIN CONCERN BEING DAMAGING
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. ENHANCED HELICITY NEAR THE WARM FROM WILL
ALSO PROMOTE A LOW END TORNADO THREAT THIS EVENING. THE HEART OF
THE CWA INCLUDING THE CHICAGO METRO AREA MAY BE SPARED SOME OF THE
HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS BUT STILL EXPECT PERIODS OF RAIN AND
DRIZZLE AT TIMES THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO BE OVER WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. MID LEVEL RH FIELDS INDICATE THAT THE DRY SLOT WILL
ROTATE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY TUESDAY. WITH THE LOSS OF THE
DEEPER MOISTURE...EXPECT PRECIP TO TAPER TO A LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE
FOR A PERIOD EARLY TUESDAY...THEN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY THE
DEFORMATION ZONE WILL SLOWLY TRANSLATE ACROSS THE AREA WITH PRECIP
PICKING UP AGAIN. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED
TO BE IN NORTHWEST INDIANA. DESPITE HEIGHTS BUILDING ALOFT AND
WARMING/DRYING IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN
CYCLONIC WITH NEAR SATURATED CONDITIONS SUPPORTING CONTINUED
POSSIBILITY FOR DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. LOW LEVEL FLOW STARTS TO BECOME
ANTICYCLONIC ON THURSDAY AND SHOULD ALLOW SKIES TO SCATTER OUT AND
FOR PRECIP TO END.
//LONG TERM...
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMANATING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS
PROGGED TO MERGE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON THURSDAY...AND EVENTUALLY DRIVING A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THE AIRMASS IS PRETTY DRY OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO CHANCE
FOR PRECIP ARE PRETTY LOW. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT
AND SHOULD RESULT IN CONTINUED COOL BUT DRIER WEATHER REST OF THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BMD
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 00Z...
* OCNL SHRA AND POSSIBLY A TSRA THIS EVENING
* OCNL MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR CIGS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
* SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS OCCASIONALLY GUSTY THROUGH AROUND
MIDNIGHT THEN EASING A BIT
* WIND SHIFT TO STRONG NNE WINDS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON OR
MONDAY EVENING WITH RETURN TO IFR CIGS
IZZI
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z...
COMPLEX FORECAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVES
SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION. WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED NORTH OF THE
TERMINALS WITH GREATLY IMPROVED CIGS AND VSBY OUTSIDE OF THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS WHERE BRIEF IFR VSBYS ARE OCCURRING. CURRENT BAND
OF RAIN AND ISOLD TSRA WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE TERMINALS BY 02Z
WITH MORE SPOTTY SHRA ACTIVITY IN ITS WAKE. SOME MODELS DO SHOW
REDEVELOPMENT OF HEAVIER RAIN OVERNIGHT AND HAVE COVERED THIS
THREAT WITH TEMPO FOR SHRA...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT OVERLY HIGH.
WITHIN THE APPROACHING DRY SLOT THAT MOVES INTO THE AREA LATE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT EXPECT CIGS TO POTENTIALLY BECOME HIGHLY
VARIABLE...WITH ANYTHING FROM IFR/LIFR TO VFR POSSIBLE. SEEMS
LIKELY NOW THAT THE LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS CHICAGO AREA
DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH LAKE ENHANCED COLD FRONT POTENTIALLY
BEING HELD AT BAY UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING AT THE
CHICAGO AREA TERMINALS. AN ALTERNATIVE POSSIBILITY IS THE LIGHT
WINDS NEAR THE CENTER OF THE LOW COULD ALLOW FRONT TO ACCELERATE
SOUTHWARD MORE QUICKLY. MODELS VARY FROM 14Z MON TO 06Z TUES WITH
TIMING OF FROPA FOR ORD...SO CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW. MAJORITY OF
THE RAIN MONDAY COULD END UP NORTHWEST OF THE REGION WITHIN THE
DEFORMATION BAND WITH JUST SPOTTY SHOWERS IN THE IMMEDIATE AREA.
ONCE FRONT DOES MOVE THROUGH LOOK FOR IFR CIGS TO LOCK BACK IN
WITH SHARP MARINE ENHANCED FRONTAL INVERSION.
IZZI
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 00Z...
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST TONIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE
IN WINDS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN CIGS FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP TRENDS IN TAFS
IZZI
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF -SHRA. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE.
THURSDAY...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...PRIMARILY VFR.
IZZI
&&
.MARINE...
315 PM CDT
STRONG LOW PRESSURE LIFTING OUT OF MISSOURI LATE THIS AFTERNOON
HAS A WARM SECTOR THAT IS QUICKLY MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS ILLINOIS
AND INDIANA. THIS WILL REACH THE FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE LAKE BY
SUNSET...LEADING TO SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA WINDS. THE WINDS MAY BE
THE STRONGEST THIS EVENING ON THE INDIANA SHORE GIVEN THE OFFSHORE
COMPONENT...WHILE THE WAVES BUILDING THE QUICKEST ON THE ILLINOIS
SHORE WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW. DENSE FOG WILL LIKELY EASE QUICKLY
OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE LAKE INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH THIS INCREASING FLOW...AS WELL AS RAIN MOVING
OVER THE LAKE HELPING TO MIX THE MARINE LAYER.
AS THE LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE LAKE IT WILL SLOW AS WELL AS
GRADUALLY EXPAND. THIS MAKES IT CHALLENGING FOR WINDS AS THE WARM
FRONTAL PORTION OF THIS LOW /SEPARATING NORTHEAST WINDS FROM
SOUTHEAST/ WILL EXTEND OVER THE LAKE AND WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN
TOO. THIS DEMARCATION IN WINDS WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PART OF THE LAKE DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AND THEN GRADUALLY FADE
INTO THE DAY WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING NORTHERLY WINDS TO ENVELOP
SOUTHWARD. THIS COULD HAPPEN MORE QUICKLY THOUGH WHICH WOULD LEAD
TO SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA WAVES AND POSSIBLY WINDS INTO THE ILLINOIS
NEARSHORE LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING.
IN ADDITION...IT IS POSSIBLE TEMPORARY NORTHEAST GALES COULD BE
EXPERIENCED ON THE NORTHERN PART OF THE LAKE TUESDAY NORTH OF THE
WARM FRONT.
MTF
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 5 AM TUESDAY.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-
LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-
LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 9 PM MONDAY.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
319 PM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014
.DISCUSSION...
318 PM CDT
SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...MAIN ISSUES WILL BE INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AND CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A DENSE COULD DECK STREAMING NORTHWARD INTO NERN
IL/NWRN IN IN ADVANCE OF A DEVELOPING SFC/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE WRN PLAINS AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.
A WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TRACKING ACROSS ERN IA AND WRN IL IS
GENERATING SOME SCT SHRA...BUT THE SHRA ARE SCATTERED AND INITIALLY
CONFINED TO AREAS WEST OF THE FOX VALLEY. AS THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS
NEWD...EXPECT THAT SOME SHRA SHOULD EVENTUALLY SPREAD INTO THE
ROCKFORD AND CHICAGO METRO AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING...BUT ANY PCPN AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND MANY LOCATIONS
WILL LIKELY NOT RECEIVE ANY MEASURABLE PCPN. ANY PCPN ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SHORTWAVE SHOULD PUSH AWAY FROM THE AREA DURING THE LATE
NIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. IN THE PREVAILING SELY FLOW TODAY...TEMPS HAVE
BEEN ABLE TO CLIMB A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY...TOPPING OUT
IN MOST AREAS IN THE LOWER 60S...EXCEPT FOR THE ILLINOIS SHORE OF
LAKE MICHIGAN...WHERE THE PREVAILING ONSHORE FLOW HAS LIMITED TEMPS
TO THE MIDDLE 50S. WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND PERSISTENT WARM
ADVECTION SETTING UP THROUGH A DEEP LAYER OF THE ATMOSPHERE
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER FOR
MONDAY MORNING...WITH LOWS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
50S.
LONGER TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...PCPN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY AS THE NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE
DIGGING INTO THE SOUTH HIGH PLAINS CLOSES OFF INTO A CLOSED
CIRCULATION BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE LOW CENTER SHOULD BEGIN TO
LIFT NEWD THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...MOVING TO ERN KS/WRN MO BY
MONDAY EVENING. THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SETTLED INTO A VERY
CONSISTENT SOLUTION FOR MONDAY...LIFTING THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW INTO
CNTRL MO...WITH AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING NORTHEAST INTO
WISCONSIN...SPREADING WARM SECTOR AIR OVER THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY
ON MONDAY. WITH AN OPEN GULF OF MEXICO...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL
STREAM NWD...WITH SFC DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE LOWER 60S AND PWATS
REACHING 1.6 INCHES. PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD SPREAD
INTO THE SWRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA DURG THE MORNING HOURS...SPREADING
NORTH AND EAST TO THE ROCKFORD AND CHICAGO METRO AREAS BY AROUND
NOON. CURRENT INDICATORS SUGGEST THAT THE GREATEST CONCERN WITH
THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE UNSEASONABLY HIGH PWATS WILL ALLOW ANY STORMS
TO BE VERY EFFICIENT PRECIPITATORS AND RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1
TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME STORMS. A VERY
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET POINTING INTO THE SERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
SHOULD HELP ORGANIZE STORMS INTO A LINEAR MODE WITH AN EXTENSIVE
SQUALL LINE POSSIBLY DEVELOPING...THOUGH THERE COULD BE SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR FOR DISCRETE SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT IN THE WARM SECTOR...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ON MONDAY. INTO THE EVENING...THE GREATEST STRONG
THUNDERSTORM THREAT SHOULD BEING TO SHIFT TO THE EAST...INTO INDIANA
AND OHIO AS THE SFC LOW TRACKS ALONG THE INVERTED TROUGH
AXIS...TAKING THE PATH OF LEAST RESISTANCE THROUGH NRN IL AND TO THE
FAR SRN TIP OF LAKE MICHIGAN. HAVE GENERALLY LIMITED THUNDERSTORMS
ACTIVITY TO THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW ANS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WITH SFC FLOW QUICKLY SHIFTING TO MORE NLY AS THE LOW SLOWLY
MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST. EXPECT THAT THE PERIOD OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL
WILL BE FROM LATE MORNING MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN SHIFTING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LATEST GUIDANCE HAS BEEN RAMPING UP THE QPF AMOUNTS...
WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE THROUGH THIS PERIOD. SO...LATEST THINKING
IS THAT MUCH OF THE CWA COULD SEE AREAL AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
2 TO 2.5 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN ANY AREAS OF
THUNDERSTORM TRAINING.
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM WILL SLOW WITH THE LARGER SCALE MODEL GUIDANCE
CONVERGING TOWARD A SOLUTION OF CUTTING OFF THE UPPER LOW FROM THE
MEAN WESTERLIES...WITH THE UPPER LOW MEANDERING AROUND THE MIDWEST
AT LEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AFTER WEDNESDAY...THE MODELS STILL
BEGIN TO DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY IN TIMING WHEN THE CUT OFF UPPER LOW
WILL WEAKEN INTO AN OPEN WAVE AND EJECT TO THE NORTHEAST. THE
LATEST FORECAST UPDATE MAINTAINS THE IDEA OF A SLOWER EVOLUTION AS
HAS BEEN ADVERTISED BY THE ECMWF...WHICH DOES NOT KICK THE SYSTEM
OUT UNTIL A STRONG PACIFIC JET PUSHES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
SO...WILL CONTINUE A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH CHANCES FOR
ISOLD/SCT SHRA INTO THURSDAY.
WHILE FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS STILL RELATIVELY LOW FROM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND BEYOND WITH THE GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING A DIVERSE SPREAD OF
SOLUTIONS IN THE LONG WAVE PATTERN...WILL CARRY A DRY FORECAST INTO
THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WHEN THE ECMWF
ADVERTISES RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.
KREIN
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...
* CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH BETTER CHANCES OVERNIGHT
AND MONDAY AFTERNOON.
* CIGS LOWERING TO MVFR THIS EVENING AND POSSIBLY IFR OVERNIGHT.
* VISIBILITY DECREASING IN THE PREDAWN HOURS MONDAY.
BMD
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
THERE WILL BE PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN THE TAF PERIOD WITH
THE BEST CHANCES OCCURRING TONIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. OUT
THE GATE...DRY CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE OVER THE TERMINALS HOWEVER
MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN STEADILY LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE
DAY ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THESE
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SOME IN COVERAGE AS THEY ENCOUNTER
DRY AIR...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIP AT THE TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON OCCURRING AT DPA AND RFD AHEAD OF THE STRONGEST RADAR
RETURNS. MOST MODELS INDICATE THAT PRECIP COVERAGE WILL INCREASE
AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
ACROSS THE REGION. IN ADDITION...CIGS ARE PROGGED TO LOWER THROUGH
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE SURFACE WARM FRONT/FRONTAL
TROUGH APPROACHES AND MVFR APPEARS LIKELY AND THERE IS A DECENT SHOT
FOR A WINDOW OF IFR IN THE PREDAWN HOURS. VSBY MAY ALSO BE REDUCED
AT THIS TIME PER MOS GUIDANCE. A CLOSED UPPER LOW AND ATTENDANT
SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO LIFT FROM OK INTO NRN MO BY MIDDAY
TOMORROW. PRECIPITATION...MAINLY RAIN WITH A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS...WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AGAIN AROUND THIS TIME AND
IS EXPECTED TO LAST WELL BEYOND THE END OF THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD AS
THE LOW VERY SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY EAST TO THE OHIO VALLEY BY AROUND
MIDWEEK.
BMD
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN SHRA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT...AND MEDIUM-HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN SHOWERS STARTING AROUND MID AFTERNOON MONDAY.
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS/TIMING...LOW-MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE IN IFR CIGS/VSBY.
BMD
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
MONDAY NIGHT...PERIODIC IFR LIKELY WITH PREVAILING IFR POSSIBLE.
PERIODS OF RAIN AND TSRA.
TUESDAY...OCNL -SHRA. IFR POSSIBLE...MVFR LIKELY.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF -SHRA AND MVFR CIGS.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...VFR PROBABLE.
KJB
&&
.MARINE...
201 PM CDT
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR THE INCOMING STORM
SYSTEM...BUT THERE IS INCREASED CONFIDENCE FOR NORTHERLY
GALES...ESPECIALLY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. THE POTENTIAL
STILL EXISTS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY GALES AHEAD OF IT.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORMING EAST OF THE ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON
AND WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THEN PUSH NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE MISSOURI VALLEY ON MONDAY. THE TROUGH AXIS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW WILL BISECT THE LAKE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ON
MONDAY NIGHT CREATING A SHARP DIVIDING LINE BETWEEN SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
WINDS AND NORTH WINDS ON THE NORTH HALF OF THE LAKE. ON TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT THE LOW WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AND PASS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
LAKE MICHIGAN. AHEAD OF THE LOW ON MONDAY NIGHT...THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE LAKE WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 20-30
KT...POSSIBLY A FEW GUSTS TO 35 KT. EXPECT WAVES TO BUILD ON THE
WEST SIDE OF THE LAKE DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THEN AS THE LOW TRACKS
EAST TOWARD LAKE MICHIGAN...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO CENTRAL
ONTARIO. DURING THIS TIME EXPECT NORTH WINDS TO GALE FORCE. AT
THIS POINT THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE HAS THE BEST CHANCE TO
SEE GALE FORCE GUSTS AS THE LOW LOOKS TO BE WEAKENING LATER
TUESDAY...BUT SOME STRONGER WINDS MAY SPREAD DOWN THE REMAINDER OF
THE LAKE ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT WAVES TO INCREASE
CONSIDERABLY...ESPEICALLY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A NORTHERLY
FETCH OF WINDS CONTINUES FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME. THE LOW
EVENTUALLY FILLS AND GETS KICKED EAST BY ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA.
KMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
251 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2014
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014
First band of showers has lifted north of the forecast area this
afternoon, although additional showers are starting to increase near
Effingham and especially near the south tip of the state.
Short term focus shifting to strong storm system that is digging
southward across the Rockies. 120 knot jet currently extending as
far south as New Mexico, which will sharpen the upper trough across
the Plains overnight. As this happens, 40-45 knot low level jet will
ramp up this evening across the eastern half of the CWA into
northern Indiana, helping to fire additional showers there this
evening. Further west, higher resolution models trying to focus a
relative lull in the precipitation for a few hours this evening,
before ramping things up quickly again after 2-3 am. Warm air
advection with the jet will keep temperatures fairly steady
overnight across the forecast area.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014
Vigorous wave diving across the Four Corners region will help
develop a cut-off upper low Monday as it rounds the base of the mean
trof and heads northeast toward the Great Lakes region. The
associated surface low/frontal system will primarily move
into/through central and southeast Illinois Monday night, a slower
trend from previous forecasts.
A persistent 50+ kt southerly low level jet will transport copious
moisture into the area ahead of the system, with pre-frontal
precipitable water values approaching 2 inches. Given the low level
jet anticipated, it is not surprising to see bulk shear values in
the warm sector of the system expected to be in excess of 50 kts as
well, which may be supportive of strong to severe storms during the
late afternoon/evening hours Monday. The main limiting factor
appears to be very modest instability, with peak CAPE values in the
500-1000 j/kg range. Also, if the system slows much more, the loss
of insolation could limit potential instability further. Still,
given the shear expected, SPC has the southeast 2/3 of the forecast
area under a Slight Risk for severe storms Monday afternoon/evening.
Even if severe weather does not materialize, all of the forecast
area can expect a decent rainfall through Monday night (at least
1"), through the pre-frontal convection and/or wrap-around showers.
The slow moving cut-off upper low will support cloudy, unseasonably
cool, and showery conditions going into at least Wednesday night.
The consistently slower ECMWF keeps the upper low around even
longer, lingering the shower threat until Thursday or even longer.
While the ECMWF is pretty much on its own right now, its solution
can not be discounted considering the typically slower than progged
movement of cut-off systems.
Once the upper system finally pushes east of the region toward the
end of the week, a dry period will follow. Would not be surprised to
see dry conditions linger through the weekend, although most models
suggest another system may arrive by late Sunday. However, the
timing/track of this potential system has not been consistent to
this point. This is not surprising considering the timing
uncertainty with the system preceding it. In any event expect
temperatures, aside from tomorrow, to be mostly below normal through
the entire forecast period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014
IFR conditions will be predominant the next 24 hours. Areas from
KPIA-KCMI will see ceilings lowering into MVFR range over the next
hour or two, as lower ceilings steadily move northeast from
Missouri and southwest Illinois. Showers expected to increase from
the south again toward mid/late afternoon. In regards to the
ceilings, latest RAP model projecting a small break toward 07-08Z
around KSPI/KDEC, although this could cause visibilities to drop
and result in a continuation of the IFR conditions. Monday
morning, have introduced some VCTS mention toward mid-late morning
as instability starts to increase in the warm sector.
During the mid to late evening hours, a period of LLWS conditions
are projected to develop as a low level jet ramps up. Currently
looks like KCMI will be impacted the most and longest, with more
of a 3-4 hour period around KBMI/KDEC before the jet shifts east.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Bak
AVIATION...Geelhart
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1249 PM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014
.DISCUSSION...
259 AM CDT
FORECAST DETAILS WILL BE A CHALLENGE THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A STRONG
STORM SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE ACROSS THE PLAINS AND TRACKS ACROSS THE
AREA. GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH SOME OF THE KEY
FEATURES NOW BEING DIRECTLY SAMPLED BY UPPER AIR OBS. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS WEAK UPPER RIDGING OVER THE LOCAL AREA WHICH IS
QUICKLY TRANSLATING TO THE EAST. A LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH IS DRIFTING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS WHILE ANOTHER TROUGH AXIS BETTER
ORGANIZES OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. RIDGING IS FOUND OVER THE
CANADIAN WEST COAST WITH SEVERAL WELL DEFINED WAVES MOVING EASTWARD
AMPLIFYING THE RIDGE. AT THE SURFACE...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE IS
CENTERED OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING
WESTWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA AND MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. LOW
PRESSURE IS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MANITOBA WITH A TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH INTO MIDDAY ALLOWING A STEADIER
SOUTHEAST WIND TO DEVELOP. THE LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
SWINGING ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL PIVOT NORTHEASTWARD WITH A SHORTWAVE
EXPECTED TO BECOME BETTER DEVELOPED ACROSS MISSOURI THIS MORNING
THEN TRACK NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THIS WAVE WILL PASS WITHIN A LARGER AREA OF MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
AND SHOULD TRIGGER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WHICH WILL TRACK
NORTH/NORTHEAST INTO THE EVENING. WILL INCLUDE LOW CHANCE POPS FROM
MID/LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. ANOTHER WAVE MAY LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN ILLINOIS THIS EVENING SOME THERE MAY BE
SOME BETTER ORGANIZATION OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA SO WILL
CARRY HIGHEST CHANCES THERE. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A LULL IN SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT THOUGH SOME SPOTTY ACTIVITY COULD LINGER. EXPECT
TO SEE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH ONLY SOME
SCATTERED CIRRUS BUT CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS
ASCENT AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL
SLOW THE WARMING TREND SO WILL HOLD HIGHS RIGHT AROUND 60 DEGREES.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS A 170KT
UPPER JET CHARGING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. AS A RESULT THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TROUGH
WILL QUICKLY DEEPEN AND DIG INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN PLAINS BY MONDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL LEAD TO SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER OKLAHOMA
WHICH WILL THEN TRACK NORTHWARD INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER
OHIO VALLEYS MONDAY EVENING WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH CLOSES OFF AND
BECOMES CUTOFF FROM THE MAIN UPPER FLOW. GIVEN THE OBSERVED TRENDS
TONIGHT AND GUIDANCE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON THIS EVOLUTION HAVE A
HIGHER DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST GOING INTO TUESDAY THAN
THIS TIME LAST NIGHT. WITH THAT...MONDAY MORNING LOOKS TO START OUT
DRY THOUGH THERE SHOULD BE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND PERHAPS SOME
MIST AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. RAIN AND SOME EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA BY LATE
MORNING THEN ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A
WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPS AND PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. THE LOW
WILL REACH MISSOURI BY EVENING...SLOW DOWN...AND MEANDER EASTWARD
TUESDAY. IT IS SUGGESTED THAT AN UPPER WAVE WILL ROUND THE BASE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH MONDAY EVENING AND HELP TRIGGER A MORE ORGANIZED
BAND OF CONVECTION WHICH COULD TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CWA WHICH IS
ALSO WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE FOUND. OTHERWISE MORE
PERSISTENT RAIN WILL LIKELY OCCUR ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWESTERN CWA IN
CONJUNCTION WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING NORTH OF THE LOW.
IT ALSO LOOKS LIKE A DRY SLOT WILL WORK INTO A GOOD PORTION OF THE
AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING BUT IT IS STILL EARLY TO HAVE MUCH
CONFIDENCE WHERE EXACTLY THIS WILL OCCUR. THE UPPER LOW WILL CLOSE
OFF TUESDAY ALLOWING THE SURFACE LOW TO WEAKEN. LITTLE MOVEMENT IS
EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TUESDAY SHOULD SEE BETTER CHANCES FOR
RAIN THAN WEDNESDAY GIVEN THAT THE FEATURES WILL BE BETTER
ORGANIZED. PROVIDED THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY DOES MAKE IT NORTH OF
THE AREA BY MONDAY EVENING THEN HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE MILDER WITH
READINGS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S NORTH AND AROUND 70 SOUTH.HIGHS FROM
AROUND 60 NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTH ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
IN TERMS OF SEVERE POTENTIAL...MODEST SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WILL
TRY AND BUILD NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE WARM FRONT BY EARLY
MONDAY EVENING. WITH THE SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA INTO MONDAY EVENING IT WILL BE DIFFICULT FOR
ORGANIZED STRONGER/SURFACE BASED CONVECTION TO LIFT AS FAR NORTH AS
THE CWA BY EVENING BUT COULD DO SO DURING THE LATE EVENING OR
OVERNIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE OVER THE AREA BY THAT TIME SO
THERE MAY BE AN INFLUX OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ANYWAYS BUT SEVERE
POTENTIAL WOULD NOT BE FAVORED BY THAT TIME. SO AT THIS POINT ANY
SEVERE THREAT LOOKS TO BE LIMITED TO THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN CWA FROM
ROUGHLY PONTIAC NORTHEAST TO VALPARAISO MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT.
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT. HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE
THE GREATER THREAT AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PUSH 1.7 INCHES.
FORTUNATELY...CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE MOVING SWIFTLY NORTHWARD SO
EXTENDED PERIODS OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS DO NOT LOOK LIKELY. THE MAIN
CONCERN MAY END UP BEING ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CWA WHERE THE
INVERTED TROUGH AXIS WILL SET UP LEADING TO THE LONGEST DURATION OF
RAINFALL...THOUGH THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
LOOKS MINIMAL SO A STEADIER LIGHTER RAIN WOULD BE FAVORED.
THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON HOW
QUICKLY THE UPPER LOW MOVES NORTHEASTWARD BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY. A
SLOWER DEPARTURE WOULD LEAD TO A LONGER PERIOD OF SHOWER POTENTIAL
INTO THURSDAY. THE NEXT QUESTION WILL BE HOW FAR SOUTH THE NEXT
SYSTEM COMING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL TRACK INTO SATURDAY.
PROVIDED THE UPPER LOW DEPARTS BY/AROUND THURSDAY A DRIER PERIOD
LOOKS TO OCCUR SAVE FOR THE POTENTIAL SATURDAY SYSTEM...BUT A LOT
NEEDS TO OCCUR THROUGH MID WEEK FIRST BEFORE HAVING A HIGH DEGREE OF
CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS.
MDB
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH BETTER CHANCES OVERNIGHT
AND MONDAY AFTERNOON.
* CIGS LOWERING TO MVFR THIS EVENING AND POSSIBLY IFR OVERNIGHT.
* VISIBILITY DECREASING IN THE PREDAWN HOURS MONDAY.
BMD
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
THERE WILL BE PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN THE TAF PERIOD WITH
THE BEST CHANCES OCCURRING TONIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. OUT
THE GATE...DRY CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE OVER THE TERMINALS HOWEVER
MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN STEADILY LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE
DAY ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THESE
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SOME IN COVERAGE AS THEY ENCOUNTER
DRY AIR...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIP AT THE TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON OCCURRING AT DPA AND RFD AHEAD OF THE STRONGEST RADAR
RETURNS. MOST MODELS INDICATE THAT PRECIP COVERAGE WILL INCREASE
AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
ACROSS THE REGION. IN ADDITION...CIGS ARE PROGGED TO LOWER THROUGH
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE SURFACE WARM FRONT/FRONTAL
TROUGH APPROACHES AND MVFR APPEARS LIKELY AND THERE IS A DECENT SHOT
FOR A WINDOW OF IFR IN THE PREDAWN HOURS. VSBY MAY ALSO BE REDUCED
AT THIS TIME PER MOS GUIDANCE. A CLOSED UPPER LOW AND ATTENDANT
SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO LIFT FROM OK INTO NRN MO BY MIDDAY
TOMORROW. PRECIPITATION...MAINLY RAIN WITH A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS...WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AGAIN AROUND THIS TIME AND
IS EXPECTED TO LAST WELL BEYOND THE END OF THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD AS
THE LOW VERY SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY EAST TO THE OHIO VALLEY BY AROUND
MIDWEEK.
BMD
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN SHRA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT...AND MEDIUM-HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN SHOWERS STARTING AROUND MID AFTERNOON MONDAY.
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS/TIMING...LOW-MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE IN IFR CIGS/VSBY.
BMD
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
MONDAY NIGHT...PERIODIC IFR LIKELY WITH PREVAILING IFR POSSIBLE.
PERIODS OF RAIN AND TSRA.
TUESDAY...OCNL -SHRA. IFR POSSIBLE...MVFR LIKELY.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF -SHRA AND MVFR CIGS.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...VFR PROBABLE.
KJB
&&
.MARINE...
207 AM CDT
A RATHER SIGNIFICANT AUTUMN SEASON STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
IMPACT THE GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY THROUGH MID WEEK. IT CONTINUES
TO APPEAR THAT AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS EASTERLY FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY THAT A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL ESTABLISH
ITSELF SOMEWHERE ACROSS NORTHERN OR CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN BY MONDAY
EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT WIND DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE LAKE. TO THE NORTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY...NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE UP TO
AROUND 30 KT LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WHILE SOUTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY...WINDS WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH UP TO 25 TO 30 KT.
IT APPEARS THIS BOUNDARY WILL TRY TO WORK ITS WAY SOUTHWARD DOWN
LAKE MICHIGAN ON TUESDAY MORNING...AS THE SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO SET
UP SHOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THIS WOULD RESULT IN
THE STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS WORKING THEIR WAY ALL THE WAY DOWN THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE POSSIBLY BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
OVERALL...HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS A BIT LOW AS TO EXACT TIMINGS OF
THE NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT AT ANY PARTICULAR POINT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
END OF THE LAKE...AS ANY DEVIATIONS IN THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM
COULD RESULT IN SLOWER OR FASTER TIMINGS FOR THIS WIND SHIFT. A
PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE NORTHERLY WINDS
DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE GRADIENT. HOWEVER...THE LACK OF A
MUCH COLDER AIRMASS BEING INTRODUCED ATOP THE WARM LAKE WATERS
SHOULD LIMIT NEAR SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...SOME OF THE
HIGHEST WHEEL HOUSES WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE GALE FORCE WINDS UP TO
40 KT...WELL ABOVE THE WATER SURFACE. AT THIS TIME I WILL CONTINUE
WITH THE MENTION OF OCCASIONAL GALE FORCE GUSTS.
KJB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1246 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1005 AM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014
Earlier clear skies over the northeast CWA have quickly clouded
over during the last couple hours, as band of clouds has been
surging northward. Initial band of showers has been quickly
pushing northeast across the CWA this morning. Latest high-
resolution model runs keep the morning activity fairly scattered,
with some more development toward mid afternoon. Have done some
tweaking of the precipitation chances to reflect these trends.
Little adjustment needed to the other elements, besides blending
in based on latest trends.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014
High pressure ridge axis slipping east and southerly flow dominating
west of the Mississippi as the next 500 mb trof starts to deepen
over the northern Rockies. Another wave moving in from the SW is
finally starting to show some clouds, though considerably weaker
than prev advertised. Even representation on WV sat imagery is not
as substantive as last few model runs. As a result, slowing the
onset of precip chances today and going to a lower chance pop.
Keeping the TS threat further to the SE closer to the track of the
wave itself. ILX remaining more north of the better chances today.
Cloudy and mild with scattered showers. Major issues for the
forecast remain the nature of the next system later tonight and
through Tuesday morning as the GFS finally starts to come around to
a more ECMWF solution with cutting off the low over the Midwest and
stalling, bringing a longer time pd of showers and thunderstorms as
the pops expand into the forecast.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014
Jet diving into the weak trof over the western half of the CONUS
this morning will continue to deepen the long wave pushing into the
Midwest. Weak low pressure over the southern plains moving NE and
getting out ahead of the trof developing into the next storm system
to bring signif chances for thunderstorms and severe weather to the
region. Previously, the ECMWF was alone in cutting off the low.
However, the GFS has picked up the trend as well as the NAM. GFS is
still moving a little quickly for a closed off low and think that
the ECMWF may be a better fit with a slower progression of the cut
off low. As a result of the GFS still working out some details,
timing is a little skewed between the two. Watching the qpf fields
and extrapolating a bit of convective evolution, the better
dynamic, sfc convergence, and actually shear... is shifting to the
south and southwest. Seems that the max heating of the day with the
FROPA and better svr wx parameters are shifting to the
south/southwest. That being said, another max of activity/qpf
passes just on the north side of the upper low as it crosses through
the region. The storm is starting to look like ILX may end up in
the middle of the two activity centers, with a little less in the
way of threat. Enough inconsistency, that is not a
given...especially the timing and track of the system. Prolonging
the precip into Tuesday and Wednesday with the potentially slower
progression. Models generally cool through the forecast, with
southerly flow kicking in enough to warm up Monday a bit ahead of
the advancing frontal system. May see temps into the lower 70s in
the southeast...but the rest of the forecast is more moderate.
Forecast dries out for the end of the week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014
IFR conditions will be predominant the next 24 hours. Areas from
KPIA-KCMI will see ceilings lowering into MVFR range over the next
hour or two, as lower ceilings steadily move northeast from
Missouri and southwest Illinois. Showers expected to increase from
the south again toward mid/late afternoon. In regards to the
ceilings, latest RAP model projecting a small break toward 07-08Z
around KSPI/KDEC, although this could cause visibilities to drop
and result in a continuation of the IFR conditions. Monday
morning, have introduced some VCTS mention toward mid-late morning
as instability starts to increase in the warm sector.
During the mid to late evening hours, a period of LLWS conditions
are projected to develop as a low level jet ramps up. Currently
looks like KCMI will be impacted the most and longest, with more
of a 3-4 hour period around KBMI/KDEC before the jet shifts east.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Geelhart
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
111 PM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD...WITH
MAIN AFTERNOON IMPACTS EXPECTED NORTH OF HIGHWAY 24. EXPECT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A TRACE TO A COUPLE OF HUNDREDTHS AT BEST.
LOWER CLOUDS HAVE PUSHED NORTH FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT AND
HAVE UPDATED SKY COVER TRENDS. MIDDAY TEMP TRENDS INDICATE SOME
DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS NECESSARY OVER ALL BUT THE NORTHEAST PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT HAS SHIFTED EAST AS THE
NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL U.S. A VERY STRONG JET
APPROACHING 180 KTS ON THE RAP ANALYSIS IS PUSHING INTO THE
CANADIAN SOUTHWEST - PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
TROUGHINESS OVER THE PLAINS AND A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW NEAR THE
BLACK HILLS IS HELPING ADVECT STRATUS RAPIDLY NORTH WHICH IS
ALREADY PUSHING INTO THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST PART OF THE CWA. LIGHT
RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRATUS SEEMS TO BE HOLDING FURTHER BACK
IN SOUTHERN MO WHERE SGF`S 00Z SOUNDING MEASURED A PW OVER 1 INCH.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014
MAIN CONCERN TODAY IS THE IMPACT OF CLOUDS ON MAX TEMPS AND LIGHT
PRECIP. MAX TEMPS REFLECT THE RAPID ADVANCE OF CLOUDS WITH
SOUTHERN CWA HIGHS FORECAST LOWER THAN IN THE NORTH WHERE A
LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED. WITH THE LACK OF SUN AND A
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WIND...TODAY WILL FEEL A NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY.
WITH THE STRATUS DECK IN THE AREA AND WEAK 850 MB THERMAL-MOISTURE
ADVECTION HELPED BY SOLAR HEATING...I WOULD EXPECT AREAS OF LIGHT
RAIN OR SPRINKLES TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL NOT BE A
WASHOUT LIKE WHAT THE FORECAST LATER SHOWS...BUT NEITHER WILL IT
BE THE NICE DRY SUNNY DAY WE HAD YESTERDAY.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014
THE MODEL TRENDS OF SLOWING PROGRESS OF THE UPPER LOW CONTINUE
TONIGHT...WITH THE SAME BASIC SPREAD FROM MODEL TO MODEL THAT HAS
EXISTED IN PREVIOUS NIGHTS. THE GFS REMAINS THE FASTEST IN
PROGRESSION EAST WITH THE UPPER LOW...WHILE THE ECMWF AND UKMET
REMAIN THE SLOWEST. OVER ALL THE MODEL HAVE SLOWLY BEEN SHIFTING
TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION...AS THAT MODEL REMAINS BY FAR THE MOST
CONSISTENT.
THAT SAID...MONDAY IS CONSISTENTLY FORECAST BY ALL MODELS TO SEE A
ROBUST SHOT OF MOISTURE RICH WARM ADVECTION DRIVEN RAIN. THIS WILL
BE THE MAIN PRECIPITATION EVENT OF THE ENTIRE SYSTEM. A WIDESPREAD 1
INCH RAIN EVENT IS LIKELY MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT OVER ALL OF
THE CWA...WITH THE NORTHWEST 1/2 OR SO AT RISK FOR 1 TO 1.5 INCHES
IN THAT ROUGHLY 12 HOUR PERIOD. PWAT VALUES ARE NOW SOLIDLY
FORECAST TO REACH THE 1.25 TO 1.60 RANGE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WHICH IS EXTREMELY HIGH FOR MID OCTOBER IN THE UPPER
MIDWEST. A LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION SHOULD PREVENT ANY RUN OFF ISSUES
FROM CROPPING UP...BUT STRATIFORM RAIN RATES OF 0.25 TO 0.50 ARE
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE DURING THE PEAK FORCING MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THE SURFACE LOW WILL OCCLUDE AND CUT OFF AT UPPER LEVELS MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. WITH DEFORMATION ZONE RAINS TAKING PLACE OVER THE
CWA THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WE SHOULD SEE LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE
RAIN FOR A LONG PERIOD. IT CERTAINLY SEEMS THIS DAMP AND RATHER
WINDY WEATHER LOOKS TO BE THE STORY OF THIS WORK WEEK. IMPROVEMENT
SHOULD BEGIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT WEST...AND THURSDAY OVER THE REST OF
THE CWA AS THE WEAKENING UPPER LOW SHIFTS EAST. I HAVE MY DOUBTS
ABOUT CLEARING UNTIL THIS OCCURS...AND HAVE INCREASED SKY COVER
GRIDS FOR THE 3RD NIGHT IN A ROW FOR THE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT PERIOD. ADDITIONAL QPF TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE
0.25 TO 1 INCH...RESULTING IN 3 DAY TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES...AND
SOME POTENTIAL FOR OVER 2 1/2 IN AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE THE HEAVIER
RAIN BANDS. WHILE THIS WILL NO DOUBT DISRUPT HARVEST ACTIVITIES
THIS WEEK...THE STRATIFORM RATES SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY FLOODING THREAT.
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SHOULD RECOVER TO SOMEWHAT WARMER
READINGS IN THE DEEPER MIXED NORTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
LOWER TO MID 60S ARE FORECAST THROUGH A MODEL BLEND FOR HIGHS...WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
ERVIN
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014
18Z TAFS UPDATED TO MOVE UP THE TIMING OF THE MVFR AND EVENTUALLY
IFR/LIFR CIGS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. HAVE TRENDED CIGS TO LIFR FROM
LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING...BASED ON OBS TO THE SOUTH
WHICH CONFIRM MODEL GUIDANCE. LINGERING AFTERNOON LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES
WILL BE AFFECTING MAINLY KCID/KMLI/KDBQ.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RP KINNEY
SYNOPSIS...WOLF
SHORT TERM...WOLF
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...RP KINNEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
652 AM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT HAS SHIFTED EAST AS THE
NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL U.S. A VERY STRONG JET
APPROACHING 180 KTS ON THE RAP ANALYSIS IS PUSHING INTO THE
CANADIAN SOUTHWEST - PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
TROUGHINESS OVER THE PLAINS AND A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW NEAR THE
BLACK HILLS IS HELPING ADVECT STRATUS RAPIDLY NORTH WHICH IS
ALREADY PUSHING INTO THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST PART OF THE CWA. LIGHT
RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRATUS SEEMS TO BE HOLDING FURTHER BACK
IN SOUTHERN MO WHERE SGF`S 00Z SOUNDING MEASURED A PW OVER 1 INCH.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014
MAIN CONCERN TODAY IS THE IMPACT OF CLOUDS ON MAX TEMPS AND LIGHT
PRECIP. MAX TEMPS REFLECT THE RAPID ADVANCE OF CLOUDS WITH
SOUTHERN CWA HIGHS FORECAST LOWER THAN IN THE NORTH WHERE A
LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED. WITH THE LACK OF SUN AND A
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WIND...TODAY WILL FEEL A NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY.
WITH THE STRATUS DECK IN THE AREA AND WEAK 850 MB THERMAL-MOISTURE
ADVECTION HELPED BY SOLAR HEATING...I WOULD EXPECT AREAS OF LIGHT
RAIN OR SPRINKLES TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL NOT BE A
WASHOUT LIKE WHAT THE FORECAST LATER SHOWS...BUT NEITHER WILL IT
BE THE NICE DRY SUNNY DAY WE HAD YESTERDAY.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014
THE MODEL TRENDS OF SLOWING PROGRESS OF THE UPPER LOW CONTINUE
TONIGHT...WITH THE SAME BASIC SPREAD FROM MODEL TO MODEL THAT HAS
EXISTED IN PREVIOUS NIGHTS. THE GFS REMAINS THE FASTEST IN
PROGRESSION EAST WITH THE UPPER LOW...WHILE THE ECMWF AND UKMET
REMAIN THE SLOWEST. OVER ALL THE MODEL HAVE SLOWLY BEEN SHIFTING
TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION...AS THAT MODEL REMAINS BY FAR THE MOST
CONSISTENT.
THAT SAID...MONDAY IS CONSISTENTLY FORECAST BY ALL MODELS TO SEE A
ROBUST SHOT OF MOISTURE RICH WARM ADVECTION DRIVEN RAIN. THIS WILL
BE THE MAIN PRECIPITATION EVENT OF THE ENTIRE SYSTEM. A WIDESPREAD 1
INCH RAIN EVENT IS LIKELY MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT OVER ALL OF
THE CWA...WITH THE NORTHWEST 1/2 OR SO AT RISK FOR 1 TO 1.5 INCHES
IN THAT ROUGHLY 12 HOUR PERIOD. PWAT VALUES ARE NOW SOLIDLY
FORECAST TO REACH THE 1.25 TO 1.60 RANGE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WHICH IS EXTREMELY HIGH FOR MID OCTOBER IN THE UPPER
MIDWEST. A LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION SHOULD PREVENT ANY RUN OFF ISSUES
FROM CROPPING UP...BUT STRATIFORM RAIN RATES OF 0.25 TO 0.50 ARE
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE DURING THE PEAK FORCING MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THE SURFACE LOW WILL OCCLUDE AND CUT OFF AT UPPER LEVELS MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. WITH DEFORMATION ZONE RAINS TAKING PLACE OVER THE
CWA THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WE SHOULD SEE LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE
RAIN FOR A LONG PERIOD. IT CERTAINLY SEEMS THIS DAMP AND RATHER
WINDY WEATHER LOOKS TO BE THE STORY OF THIS WORK WEEK. IMPROVEMENT
SHOULD BEGIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT WEST...AND THURSDAY OVER THE REST OF
THE CWA AS THE WEAKENING UPPER LOW SHIFTS EAST. I HAVE MY DOUBTS
ABOUT CLEARING UNTIL THIS OCCURS...AND HAVE INCREASED SKY COVER
GRIDS FOR THE 3RD NIGHT IN A ROW FOR THE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT PERIOD. ADDITIONAL QPF TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE
0.25 TO 1 INCH...RESULTING IN 3 DAY TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES...AND
SOME POTENTIAL FOR OVER 2 1/2 IN AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE THE HEAVIER
RAIN BANDS. WHILE THIS WILL NO DOUBT DISRUPT HARVEST ACTIVITIES
THIS WEEK...THE STRATIFORM RATES SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY FLOODING THREAT.
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SHOULD RECOVER TO SOMEWHAT WARMER
READINGS IN THE DEEPER MIXED NORTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
LOWER TO MID 60S ARE FORECAST THROUGH A MODEL BLEND FOR HIGHS...WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
ERVIN
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 647 AM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014
A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS AND WESTERN U.S. IS
PULLING GULF MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS AND PRECIP INTO THE
MIDWEST. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE DAY REACHING
MVFR THRESHOLDS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATER THIS MORNING AS LIGHT
RAIN CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND ADVECT INTO THE AREA. CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE TO WORSEN OVERNIGHT WITH IFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. WOLF
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WOLF
SHORT TERM...WOLF
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...WOLF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
315 AM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT HAS SHIFTED EAST AS THE
NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL U.S. A VERY STRONG JET
APPROACHING 180 KTS ON THE RAP ANALYSIS IS PUSHING INTO THE
CANADIAN SOUTHWEST - PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
TROUGHINESS OVER THE PLAINS AND A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW NEAR THE
BLACK HILLS IS HELPING ADVECT STRATUS RAPIDLY NORTH WHICH IS
ALREADY PUSHING INTO THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST PART OF THE CWA. LIGHT
RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRATUS SEEMS TO BE HOLDING FURTHER BACK
IN SOUTHERN MO WHERE SGF`S 00Z SOUNDING MEASURED A PW OVER 1 INCH.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014
MAIN CONCERN TODAY IS THE IMPACT OF CLOUDS ON MAX TEMPS AND LIGHT
PRECIP. MAX TEMPS REFLECT THE RAPID ADVANCE OF CLOUDS WITH
SOUTHERN CWA HIGHS FORECAST LOWER THAN IN THE NORTH WHERE A
LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED. WITH THE LACK OF SUN AND A
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WIND...TODAY WILL FEEL A NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY.
WITH THE STRATUS DECK IN THE AREA AND WEAK 850 MB THERMAL-MOISTURE
ADVECTION HELPED BY SOLAR HEATING...I WOULD EXPECT AREAS OF LIGHT
RAIN OR SPRINKLES TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL NOT BE A
WASHOUT LIKE WHAT THE FORECAST LATER SHOWS...BUT NEITHER WILL IT
BE THE NICE DRY SUNNY DAY WE HAD YESTERDAY.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014
THE MODEL TRENDS OF SLOWING PROGRESS OF THE UPPER LOW CONTINUE
TONIGHT...WITH THE SAME BASIC SPREAD FROM MODEL TO MODEL THAT HAS
EXISTED IN PREVIOUS NIGHTS. THE GFS REMAINS THE FASTEST IN
PROGRESSION EAST WITH THE UPPER LOW...WHILE THE ECMWF AND UKMET
REMAIN THE SLOWEST. OVER ALL THE MODEL HAVE SLOWLY BEEN SHIFTING
TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION...AS THAT MODEL REMAINS BY FAR THE MOST
CONSISTENT.
THAT SAID...MONDAY IS CONSISTENTLY FORECAST BY ALL MODELS TO SEE A
ROBUST SHOT OF MOISTURE RICH WARM ADVECTION DRIVEN RAIN. THIS WILL
BE THE MAIN PRECIPITATION EVENT OF THE ENTIRE SYSTEM. A WIDESPREAD 1
INCH RAIN EVENT IS LIKELY MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT OVER ALL OF
THE CWA...WITH THE NORTHWEST 1/2 OR SO AT RISK FOR 1 TO 1.5 INCHES
IN THAT ROUGHLY 12 HOUR PERIOD. PWAT VALUES ARE NOW SOLIDLY
FORECAST TO REACH THE 1.25 TO 1.60 RANGE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WHICH IS EXTREMELY HIGH FOR MID OCTOBER IN THE UPPER
MIDWEST. A LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION SHOULD PREVENT ANY RUN OFF ISSUES
FROM CROPPING UP...BUT STRATIFORM RAIN RATES OF 0.25 TO 0.50 ARE
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE DURING THE PEAK FORCING MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THE SURFACE LOW WILL OCCLUDE AND CUT OFF AT UPPER LEVELS MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. WITH DEFORMATION ZONE RAINS TAKING PLACE OVER THE
CWA THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WE SHOULD SEE LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE
RAIN FOR A LONG PERIOD. IT CERTAINLY SEEMS THIS DAMP AND RATHER
WINDY WEATHER LOOKS TO BE THE STORY OF THIS WORK WEEK. IMPROVEMENT
SHOULD BEGIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT WEST...AND THURSDAY OVER THE REST OF
THE CWA AS THE WEAKENING UPPER LOW SHIFTS EAST. I HAVE MY DOUBTS
ABOUT CLEARING UNTIL THIS OCCURS...AND HAVE INCREASED SKY COVER
GRIDS FOR THE 3RD NIGHT IN A ROW FOR THE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT PERIOD. ADDITIONAL QPF TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE
0.25 TO 1 INCH...RESULTING IN 3 DAY TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES...AND
SOME POTENTIAL FOR OVER 2 1/2 IN AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE THE HEAVIER
RAIN BANDS. WHILE THIS WILL NO DOUBT DISRUPT HARVEST ACTIVITIES
THIS WEEK...THE STRATIFORM RATES SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY FLOODING THREAT.
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SHOULD RECOVER TO SOMEWHAT WARMER
READINGS IN THE DEEPER MIXED NORTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
LOWER TO MID 60S ARE FORECAST THROUGH A MODEL BLEND FOR HIGHS...WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
ERVIN
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT SAT OCT 11 2014
CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 12/13Z
AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER ILLINOIS MOVES EAST. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING
NORTH FROM ARKANSAS WILL BRING LOW CLOUDS INTO ALL THE TERMINALS BETWEEN
12/15Z-21Z. CLOUD BASES WILL START OF AOA 3K AGL AND THEN DETERIORATE
TO MVFR CONDITIONS OF 1-2K AGL WITHIN A FEW HOURS WITH ISOLATED SPRINKLES
OR A LIGHT SHOWER POSSIBLE. THIS IS HANDLED WITH VCNTY WORDING IN THE
TERMINAL TAFS FOR NOW UNTIL BETTER CLARIFIED HOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SATURATES INITIALLY. CONTINUED SATURATION BY LATE EVENING SUPPORTS AREAS
OF VERY LIGHT RAIN AND/OR DRIZZLE WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO ARRIVE OR
DEVELOP AT BRL BY 13/04Z AND LIKELY AFTER 13/06Z AT THE OTHER TERMINALS.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WOLF
SHORT TERM...WOLF
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...NICHOLS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
517 PM MDT MON OCT 13 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 127 PM MDT MON OCT 13 2014
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOWS LARGE CALE
RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE WESTERN US INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH
CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN KS. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS
BEGINNING TO BUILD INTO NORTHERN AND EASTERN COLORADO WITH A
NORTH-SOUTH PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE OVER WESTERN KS.
WINDS ALOFT ARE ALREADY SHOWING A DOWNWARD TREND...AND AS THE
SURFACE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN WINDS WILL FOLLOW SUIT. WIND
ADVISORY IS MARGINAL...HOWEVER I COULD SEE ANOTHER FEW HOURS WHERE
GUSTS WILL BE AROUND 45 MPH. IT IS CLOSE ENOUGH THAT I DIDNT WANT
TO EXPIRE THE ADVISORY EARLY...SO WILL ALLOW THE ADVISORY TO
CONTINUE UNTIL WE SEE A MUCH MORE DEFINITE DOWNWARD TREND IN WIND
SPEEDS.
WITH CLEAR SKIES...DECREASING WINDS...AND LOW TD VALUES IN THE MID
20S TO LOW 30S WE WILL SEE VERY GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT. AIR MARI MASS MAY BEGIN TO MODERATE SOME
ALOFT...HOWEVER WE WILL STILL SEE OVERNIGHT LOWS AT LEAST IN THE
MIDDLE 30S. RIVER VALLEYS AND OTHER LOW LYING/SHELTERED LOCATIONS
WILL LIKELY SEE FROST...AND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR TEMPS TO BE
EVEN COOLER THAN EXPECTED I DECIDED TO ISSUE FROST ADVISORY 06Z-
15Z TUE.
TUESDAY...WITH STRONG RIDGING ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY...AND AIR
MASS WILL SLOWLY MODERATE. HIGHS SHOULD BE SEASONAL WITH VALUES IN
THE UPPER 60S (POSSIBLY LOWER 70S).
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 157 PM MDT MON OCT 13 2014
FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST...A RATHER BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN SETS UP
IN THE FORM OF A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES. TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO BE
ABOVE NORMAL. A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY...LEAVING SLIGHTLY COOLER YET MARGINALLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN ITS WAKE. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED.
AS FOR PRECIPITATION...A DRY FORECAST HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA. THE CURRENT GFS RUN AND THE PREVIOUS EUROPEAN MODEL
INDICATED A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH ON SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM
WAS PROJECTED TO BRING SOME SHOWERS...POSSIBLY A STORM OR TWO...TO
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70. THE CURRENT EUROPEAN MODEL RUN HAS
BACKED OFF THAT SOLUTION AND...IN AGREEMENT WITH THE CANADIAN
MODEL...HOLDS THE DISTURBANCE UP IN THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.
IN COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES...DECIDED TO PULL
INITIALIZED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 513 PM MDT MON OCT 13 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KGLD AND KMCK FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IN RESPONSE TO HIGH PRESSURE AND SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT JUST AFTER SUNSET AND REMAIN
LIGHT OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT MDT /1 AM CDT/ TONIGHT TO 9 AM MDT
/10 AM CDT/ TUESDAY FOR KSZ001>003-013-014-027-028-041-042.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
CO...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM MDT TUESDAY FOR
COZ090>092.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ091-092.
NE...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT MDT /1 AM CDT/ TONIGHT TO 9 AM MDT
/10 AM CDT/ TUESDAY FOR NEZ079>081.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ080-081.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...FS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
215 PM EDT SUN OCT 12 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 215 PM EDT SUN OCT 12 2014
FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS AND SKY COVER TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS...OTHERWISE THE
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1159 AM EDT SUN OCT 12 2014
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ONGOING ACROSS SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY AS A WEAK
MID-LEVEL WAVE MOVES ACROSS APPALACHIANS. THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS SOME
RESIDUAL POP COVERAGE LINGERING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...BEFORE A MORE ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDER MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IDEA IS
ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST 12Z NAM. AS SUCH...HAVE ADJUSTED THE
POPS TOWARD THIS SOLUTION...KEEPING A DRIER PERIOD LONGER ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE RAMPING THINGS UP TOWARDS DUSK. THIS WILL KEEP THE
THUNDER CHANCES MORE CONFINED TO SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME BREAKS IN CLOUD
COVER...HOWEVER MOST OF THE TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING A BIT COOLER
COMPARED TO THE FORECAST AND THE LATEST LAMP GUIDANCE ALSO HAS BEEN
TRENDING COOLER...SO ADJUSTED THE HIGHS DOWN A TOUCH. UPDATES HAVE
BEEN SENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 800 AM EDT SUN OCT 12 2014
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION FOR
TODAY AND TO MAKE SOME ADJUSTS TO THE CURRENT CONDITIONS. THE REST OF
THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM EDT SUN OCT 12 2014
THIS IS A VERY INTERESTING FORECAST FOR TODAY. CURRENTLY THERE IS A
SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHERN ARKANSAS WITH AN FRONT EXTENDING TO ANOTHER
LOW OVER NORTHERN ALABAMA. A FRONT THEN CONTINUES TO THE EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA. THE LOW OVER ARKANSAS IS FORECAST TO MOVE
SLOWLY TO THE NORTH. THE INTERESTING PART IS THAT THE MODELS ARE
HINTING THAT THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO THE NORTH. AS
IT DOES IT WILL FALL APART AND THEN REFORM TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL MAKE IT HARD TO FIGURE OUT WHAT WILL
HAPPEN AS THE FRONT TRANSITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. THE NAM GOES NUTS
TONIGHT SHOWING A STRONG AREA OF LIFT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AT
AROUND 11PM TONIGHT. THIS AREA OF LIFT IS NOT REFLECTED AT 500 HPA.
THE GFS SEEMS TO BE MUCH MORE REASONABLE. AS SUCH...THE FORECAST WILL
BE MUCH MORE STRONGLY INFLUENCED BY THE GFS AND ECMWF. AS THIS SYSTEM
MOVES NORTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...EXPECT TO INITIALLY SEE SOME OVER
RUNNING TYPE OF PRECIPITATION WITH SOME SPRINKLES TURNING TO LIGHT
RAIN. THIS AFTERNOON...WHEN THE AIR IS FINALLY ABLE TO MIX DOWN TO
THE SURFACE...EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL THEN BE IN THE MOIST WARM SECTOR.
THIS WILL ALSO CHANGE THE NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STARTING TO DOMINATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE
ATMOSPHERE IS REALLY MARGINAL FOR ANY SEVERE DEVELOPMENT TODAY. THERE
IS A BIT OF A MIX OF MARGINAL SHEAR AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY. THIS
COMBINATION WILL BE ABLE TO KICK OFF SOME THUNDERSTORMS...WITH SOME
STRONG STORMS POSSIBLY EMBEDDED IN THE MIX...HOWEVER SHOULD STAY
BELOW SEVERE CRITERIA. ONE CONCERN FOR TONIGHT IS THAT THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER IS FORECAST TO BE ABOUT 1.5 INCHES. CONSIDERING
HOW WET THE GROUND ALREADY IS...THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED FLOODING WITH STREAMS...DITCHES AND LOW WATER CROSSINGS
RUNNING FULL OVER AREAS THAT SEE STORMS REPEATEDLY MOVE ACROSS THE
SAME AREA. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
MOVES TO THE NORTH. DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE
MOIST AND UNSTABLE WITH SOME DECENT SHEAR. THE MISSING INGREDIENT IS
THE FORCING WHICH WILL BE TO THE WEST OF THE AREA AS A SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS IS ONE OF THOSE SITUATIONS...WHERE IF
SOME THUNDERSTORMS GET GOING...THE OUTFLOWS WILL THEN PRODUCE MORE
STORMS AND COULD THEN PROPAGATE ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS A POTENTIAL
FOR ONE OR TWO SEVERE STORMS TO FORM. THERE IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY
THAT VERY FEW STORMS FORM.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT SUN OCT 12 2014
THE EXTENDED BEGINS WITH AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE
WITH ALL ATTENTION IN THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED WITH A CLOSED
UPPER LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. UPPER LEVEL
FLOW FEATURES A 100 KNOT JET STREAK PASSING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH AS IT ENTERS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. WITH THIS
GENERAL PROGRESSION IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE GFS AND EURO HAVE
SURPRISINGLY COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE EURO SPEEDING UP
IT/S PROGRESSION OF THE LOW AND THE GFS SLOWING DOWN THE MOVEMENT
IN RECENT MODEL RUNS. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR A BETTER CONSENSUS
BETWEEN THE MODELS.
CLOSER TO THE SURFACE...A DEVELOPING 55 TO 70 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET
WILL SET UP AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. TIMING OF ANY STRONG STORMS OR SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE
MORE TOWARD TUESDAY MORNING MAKING AN UNFAVORABLE SITUATION FOR ANY
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE STORMS AS INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL AT
BEST. IF MODELS SLOW THE FEATURE DOWN A BIT MORE...LEANING TOWARDS
AN EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON ARRIVAL...THIS WILL BE A DIFFERENT STORY.
FOR NOW...ABOVE NORMAL PWATS WITH THIS SYSTEM AND SHOWERS WITH THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A CONCERN
HERE...ESPECIALLY WITH THE RECENT RAINFALL OVER THE WEEKEND. IN
ADDITION..THE STRONG WINDS OVERHEAD AND LIMITED INSTABILITY MAY
BRING SOME STRONGER WINDS TO THE SURFACE. MAY BE DEALING WITH A
SITUATION WITH STRONG SHOWERS RATHER THAN STRONG STORMS. DESPITE
THIS...IT IS WORTH MENTIONING THAT SPC WILL KEEP A 5 PERCENT RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER FOR THIS EVENT. WHILE STILL A BIT UNCLEAR...WINDS
WITH THIS SYSTEM MAY POSE THE NEED FOR HEADLINES CONCERNING
WINDS...PERHAPS EVEN CONCERNS FOR MOUNTAIN WAVES ALONG THE FAR
EASTERN COUNTIES. FOR POPS COLLABORATED WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES AND
WENT ABOVE THE SUPER BLEND MODEL AS THE CONSENSUS IN MODELS ADDED
MORE CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST AND WENT WITH CATEGORICAL.
AFTER THE FRONT PASSES...THE LINGERING LOW CENTER THAT IN PREVIOUS
RUNS WAS SLOW TO EXIT...MOVES THROUGH AND INTO THE SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND REGION BY FRIDAY. THIS IS EMBRACED BY BOTH THE GFS AND THE
EURO. FROM THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIME FRAME...LINGERING LOW
PRESSURE...CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WITH A LACK OF
INSTABILITY...PRECIP WILL BE ONLY SHOWER ACTIVITY. FRIDAY WILL
FEATURE THE LOW FINALLY EXITING AS HIGH PRESSURE AND MORE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES RETURN TO EASTERN KENTUCKY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 215 PM EDT SUN OCT 12 2014
MVFR STRATOCU WILL RAISE UP TO VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF KENTUCKY BETWEEN 23 AND
03Z. THIS CONVECTION WILL BRING CONDITIONS BACK DOWN TO MVFR. A LULL
IN THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR A FEW HOURS LATE TONIGHT...BEFORE
ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY DEVELOPS BETWEEN 06 AND 12Z AND MOVES NORTHEAST
INTO THE AREA. LOWER CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY MIX OUT MONDAY MORNING...WITH
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS OF AROUND 10 KTS...WITH GUSTS IN THE 15 TO 20
KT RANGE ENGAGING THEREAFTER.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
1200 PM EDT SUN OCT 12 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1159 AM EDT SUN OCT 12 2014
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ONGOING ACROSS SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY AS A WEAK
MID-LEVEL WAVE MOVES ACROSS APPALACHIANS. THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS SOME
RESIDUAL POP COVERAGE LINGERING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...BEFORE A MORE ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDER MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IDEA IS
ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST 12Z NAM. AS SUCH...HAVE ADJUSTED THE
POPS TOWARD THIS SOLUTION...KEEPING A DRIER PERIOD LONGER ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE RAMPING THINGS UP TOWARDS DUSK. THIS WILL KEEP THE
THUNDER CHANCES MORE CONFINED TO SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME BREAKS IN CLOUD
COVER...HOWEVER MOST OF THE TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING A BIT COOLER
COMPARED TO THE FORECAST AND THE LATEST LAMP GUIDANCE ALSO HAS BEEN
TRENDING COOLER...SO ADJUSTED THE HIGHS DOWN A TOUCH. UPDATES HAVE
BEEN SENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 800 AM EDT SUN OCT 12 2014
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION FOR
TODAY AND TO MAKE SOME ADJUSTS TO THE CURRENT CONDITIONS. THE REST OF
THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM EDT SUN OCT 12 2014
THIS IS A VERY INTERESTING FORECAST FOR TODAY. CURRENTLY THERE IS A
SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHERN ARKANSAS WITH AN FRONT EXTENDING TO ANOTHER
LOW OVER NORTHERN ALABAMA. A FRONT THEN CONTINUES TO THE EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA. THE LOW OVER ARKANSAS IS FORECAST TO MOVE
SLOWLY TO THE NORTH. THE INTERESTING PART IS THAT THE MODELS ARE
HINTING THAT THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO THE NORTH. AS
IT DOES IT WILL FALL APART AND THEN REFORM TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL MAKE IT HARD TO FIGURE OUT WHAT WILL
HAPPEN AS THE FRONT TRANSITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. THE NAM GOES NUTS
TONIGHT SHOWING A STRONG AREA OF LIFT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AT
AROUND 11PM TONIGHT. THIS AREA OF LIFT IS NOT REFLECTED AT 500 HPA.
THE GFS SEEMS TO BE MUCH MORE REASONABLE. AS SUCH...THE FORECAST WILL
BE MUCH MORE STRONGLY INFLUENCED BY THE GFS AND ECMWF. AS THIS SYSTEM
MOVES NORTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...EXPECT TO INITIALLY SEE SOME OVER
RUNNING TYPE OF PRECIPITATION WITH SOME SPRINKLES TURNING TO LIGHT
RAIN. THIS AFTERNOON...WHEN THE AIR IS FINALLY ABLE TO MIX DOWN TO
THE SURFACE...EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL THEN BE IN THE MOIST WARM SECTOR.
THIS WILL ALSO CHANGE THE NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STARTING TO DOMINATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE
ATMOSPHERE IS REALLY MARGINAL FOR ANY SEVERE DEVELOPMENT TODAY. THERE
IS A BIT OF A MIX OF MARGINAL SHEAR AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY. THIS
COMBINATION WILL BE ABLE TO KICK OFF SOME THUNDERSTORMS...WITH SOME
STRONG STORMS POSSIBLY EMBEDDED IN THE MIX...HOWEVER SHOULD STAY
BELOW SEVERE CRITERIA. ONE CONCERN FOR TONIGHT IS THAT THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER IS FORECAST TO BE ABOUT 1.5 INCHES. CONSIDERING
HOW WET THE GROUND ALREADY IS...THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED FLOODING WITH STREAMS...DITCHES AND LOW WATER CROSSINGS
RUNNING FULL OVER AREAS THAT SEE STORMS REPEATEDLY MOVE ACROSS THE
SAME AREA. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
MOVES TO THE NORTH. DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE
MOIST AND UNSTABLE WITH SOME DECENT SHEAR. THE MISSING INGREDIENT IS
THE FORCING WHICH WILL BE TO THE WEST OF THE AREA AS A SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS IS ONE OF THOSE SITUATIONS...WHERE IF
SOME THUNDERSTORMS GET GOING...THE OUTFLOWS WILL THEN PRODUCE MORE
STORMS AND COULD THEN PROPAGATE ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS A POTENTIAL
FOR ONE OR TWO SEVERE STORMS TO FORM. THERE IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY
THAT VERY FEW STORMS FORM.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT SUN OCT 12 2014
THE EXTENDED BEGINS WITH AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE
WITH ALL ATTENTION IN THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED WITH A CLOSED
UPPER LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. UPPER LEVEL
FLOW FEATURES A 100 KNOT JET STREAK PASSING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH AS IT ENTERS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. WITH THIS
GENERAL PROGRESSION IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE GFS AND EURO HAVE
SURPRISINGLY COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE EURO SPEEDING UP
IT/S PROGRESSION OF THE LOW AND THE GFS SLOWING DOWN THE MOVEMENT
IN RECENT MODEL RUNS. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR A BETTER CONSENSUS
BETWEEN THE MODELS.
CLOSER TO THE SURFACE...A DEVELOPING 55 TO 70 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET
WILL SET UP AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. TIMING OF ANY STRONG STORMS OR SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE
MORE TOWARD TUESDAY MORNING MAKING AN UNFAVORABLE SITUATION FOR ANY
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE STORMS AS INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL AT
BEST. IF MODELS SLOW THE FEATURE DOWN A BIT MORE...LEANING TOWARDS
AN EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON ARRIVAL...THIS WILL BE A DIFFERENT STORY.
FOR NOW...ABOVE NORMAL PWATS WITH THIS SYSTEM AND SHOWERS WITH THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A CONCERN
HERE...ESPECIALLY WITH THE RECENT RAINFALL OVER THE WEEKEND. IN
ADDITION..THE STRONG WINDS OVERHEAD AND LIMITED INSTABILITY MAY
BRING SOME STRONGER WINDS TO THE SURFACE. MAY BE DEALING WITH A
SITUATION WITH STRONG SHOWERS RATHER THAN STRONG STORMS. DESPITE
THIS...IT IS WORTH MENTIONING THAT SPC WILL KEEP A 5 PERCENT RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER FOR THIS EVENT. WHILE STILL A BIT UNCLEAR...WINDS
WITH THIS SYSTEM MAY POSE THE NEED FOR HEADLINES CONCERNING
WINDS...PERHAPS EVEN CONCERNS FOR MOUNTAIN WAVES ALONG THE FAR
EASTERN COUNTIES. FOR POPS COLLABORATED WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES AND
WENT ABOVE THE SUPER BLEND MODEL AS THE CONSENSUS IN MODELS ADDED
MORE CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST AND WENT WITH CATEGORICAL.
AFTER THE FRONT PASSES...THE LINGERING LOW CENTER THAT IN PREVIOUS
RUNS WAS SLOW TO EXIT...MOVES THROUGH AND INTO THE SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND REGION BY FRIDAY. THIS IS EMBRACED BY BOTH THE GFS AND THE
EURO. FROM THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIME FRAME...LINGERING LOW
PRESSURE...CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WITH A LACK OF
INSTABILITY...PRECIP WILL BE ONLY SHOWER ACTIVITY. FRIDAY WILL
FEATURE THE LOW FINALLY EXITING AS HIGH PRESSURE AND MORE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES RETURN TO EASTERN KENTUCKY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT
313 AM EDT SUN OCT 12 2014
A MIXED BAG OF IFR AND LIFR STRATUS WILL PERSIST AT MOST OF THE TAF
SITES THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. WILL SEE SOME SIGNIFICANT
IMPROVEMENT AS THE AIR MIXES OUT THIS AFTERNOON AND THE FRONT MOVES
TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DECREASING
LATE IN THE PERIOD AND MOVING TO THE NORTH. EXPECT SOME FOG AGAIN IN
THE MORNING. THE EXTENT OF THE FOG WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH RAIN
ACTUALLY FALLS TODAY AND THIS EVENING.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...JJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW ORLEANS LA
346 AM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014
.SHORT TERM...
A FEW NOCTURNAL SHOWERS OVERNIGHT MAINLY IN THE COASTAL WATERS. WE
REMAIN IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS TODAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF
OUT WEATHER CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE HIGH
CENTERED AROUND JAX/MLB COASTAL AREA. FLOW AROUND THE HIGH CONTINUES
TO PUSH MOIST GULF AIR INTO ARE ENTIRE REGION. EXPECT A FEW
SHOWERS AND MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM TODAY AS THE WARM/MOIST AIR MASS
HOLDS FOR ANOTHER FEW DAYS.
.LONG TERM...
CHANGES ON THE WAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG OVER THE ROCKIES WITH
CYCLOGENISIS BEGINNING TONIGHT. A 560MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS
PROGGED BY THE GFS BEGINNING AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT OVER THE OK
PANHANDLE. A SQUALL LOOKS TO FORM IN EAST TX NORTH TO AR AROUND
NOON ON MONDAY AND MOVE EASTWARD. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS
SOLUTION WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING WITH THE GFS AND NAM
MOVING CLOSER TO THE EURO SOLUTION OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. THE
EURO HAS BEEN THE SLOWER OF THE MODELS WITH THE NAM BEING THE MOST
TEMPORALLY AGGRESSIVE. THE SQUALL LINE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
SHOULD ENTER THE KLIX WARNING AREA AROUND 6PM AND EXIT OUR FAR
EAST WARNING AREA BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. WITH THIS IN MIND...
THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND ENERGY FOR SOME CELLS TO DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE BEGINNING MONDAY AFTERNOON. TAKING A LOOK
AT SOME SEVERE PARAMETERS INDICATE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE IN OUR SW MS COUNTIES NORTHWARD TO THE MS/TN
BORDER. LOCAL CAPE FORECAST TO BE 1200 J/KG WITH ENOUGH SHEAR TO
WARRANT THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO. THE BEST HELICITY
IS PROGGED TO BE IN EAST TX THEN MOVING TO N MS. LOOKING UPWARD
SHOWS A PORTION OF OUR AREA IN THE RR QUAD OF A 120KT JET WITH
SOME UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE MONDAY EVENING IN THE WEST THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING IN THE EAST. GUSTY WINDS...BRIEF TORRENTIAL
RAIN... AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCE WEST OF I-55 AND IN OUR SW MS COUNTIES AND BORDER
LA PARISHES. SPC HAS THE ENTIRE WARNING AREA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK
WITH A TOTAL SEVERE PROBABILITY OF 30 PERCENT IN SW MS. COLD AIR
ADVECTION AFTER THE FRONT WILL BRING MUCH DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION. LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER 40S NORTH AND WEST OF LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN AND 50S SOUTH OF THE LAKE AND THE MS GULF COAST.
&&
.AVIATION...
MAIN THREAT TO AREA TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE
ISOLATED CONVECTION TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE COULD BE A FEW
PATCHES OF FOG THIS MORNING BUT NOTHING WIDESPREAD IS EXPECTED.
SOME BRIEF IFR TO VLIFR OBSERVATIONS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 08Z AND 14Z
OTHERWISE VFR WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS.
&&
.MARINE...
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
MORNING AND COULD LINGER ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. A SQUALL
LINE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE COASTAL WATERS MONDAY
EVENING AND MOVE ACROSS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. STRONG GUSTY
WINDS... FREQUENT LIGHTNING... AND LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS ALONG THE SQUALL LINE. WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 15KT LATER TODAY AND MONDAY AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT
MOVE EAST TOWARDS OUR AREA MONDAY. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
SWITCH FROM THE SOUTH TO THE NORTH AND HOLD STEADY AROUND 15KT
WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20KT. WE WILL WATCH THIS CLOSE AS BOTH SMALL
CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION AND POSSIBLY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE
WARRANTED WITH THIS SYSTEM TUESDAY.
&&
.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
SIGNIFICANCE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 85 71 84 56 / 30 10 70 80
BTR 86 71 86 57 / 30 10 70 80
ASD 85 71 85 61 / 20 20 60 80
MSY 86 73 86 63 / 20 20 60 80
GPT 84 71 83 64 / 10 20 50 80
PQL 84 69 83 65 / 10 20 50 80
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
KEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
138 PM EDT SUN OCT 12 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN CHANCES RETURN TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT SURGES ACROSS THE
REGION. THE THREAT FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HI-RES MODELS LIKE THE HRRR AND THE RAP ARE STILL TRYING TO
GENERATE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON.
THINK THAT THESE MODELS ARE UNDERESTIMATING THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR
IN PLACE. 12Z PBZ SOUNDING TELLS THIS TALE PRETTY EMPHATICALLY.
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW DROPS REACHING THE GROUND ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST AS SHORTWAVE SKIMS BY TO THE SOUTH...BUT THAT SHOULD BE
IT. STILL DO EXPECT A CLOUD INCREASE LATER IN THE THE DAY THOUGH
AS FLOW TURNS SW ALOFT. LEFT POPS AFTER 00Z ALONE FOR NOW...BUT
MAY HAVE TO SLOW ONSET THERE A BIT AS WELL. TEMPERATURES TWEAKED
ACCORDING TO LAMP NUMBERS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EASTWARD TODAY. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT. THE BOUNDARY WILL PULL WARMER
AIR NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TRICKY FORECAST TONIGHT AS FRONT WILL CLEAR THE AREA DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. NOT MUCH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ALONG OR BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY AND HEIGHTS WILL RISE OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT ALLOWING FOR INCREASED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE...CAUGHT IN THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTH LATE TONIGHT. THIS ENERGY...COMBINING WITH A LOW LEVEL JET...
WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. WILL CONTINUE
WITH INCREASING POPS TO LIKELY OVERNIGHT. WITH THE STRONG FLOW OUT
OF THE SOUTH...TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL BE RISING.
UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BE SHEARED OFF TO THE EAST ON MONDAY...AND
THE AREA WILL BE WELL INTO THE WARM SECTOR. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
HEIGHTS SLOWLY RISE AS LARGE TROUGH DIGS AND DEEPENS OVER THE
CENTRAL US. THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS TO END MONDAY MORNING
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AND TEMPS TO WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.
MONDAY NIGHT LOOKS DRY AND MILD WITH A DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER.
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST BEGINS ON TUESDAY AS MODELS STILL HAVE NOT
COME TO AN AGREEMENT ON LOCATION...TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE
LARGE AND DEEP SYSTEM WHICH WILL BE GETTING WOUND UP OVER THE
CENTRAL US. WITH THE ENTIRE SYSTEM CUTTING OFF...AND THE SURFACE
LOW RAPIDLY DEEPENING...SLOWER PROGRESSION IS GENERALLY BETTER
WITH THESE TYPES OF SYSTEM. HAVE SLOWED THE ONSET OF POPS ON
TUESDAY AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THEY WILL HAVE TO BE HELD
BACK MORE. ENTIRE SYSTEM WILL OCCLUDE LATE TUESDAY. HOW FAST THE
OCCLUDED SURFACE FRONT SPINS AROUND THE SYSTEM WILL DETERMINE IF
THE AREA SEES SHOWERS TUESDAY. FOR CURRENT FORECAST WILL NOT STRAY
TOO FAR FROM PREVIOUS THINKING JUST SLOWING THINGS DOWN A BIT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE OCCLUDED FROM WILL REACH THE AREA SOMETIME TUESDAY NIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE TIMING OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS
FOR WHEN THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS REACH THE AREA. A CONVEYOR OF
MOISTURE WILL BE ESTABLISHING ITSELF WITH THE FRONT WHICH WILL
PULL MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF. BEHIND THE FRONT THE ENTIRE
SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST WEDNESDAY AND
OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE
RISK FOR SHOWERS. ENTIRE SYSTEM WILL EXIT THURSDAY NIGHT...DRYING
OUT THE AREA BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE SOUTH TO NORTH THIS AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT. EXPECTING LOW VFR/BORDERLINE MVFR CIGS TO
DEVELOP WITH CONTINUING SE WINDS. A FEW SCT SHRA ACROSS NORTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA THIS AFTERNOON...THEN A MORE GENERAL LIGHT RAIN CHANCE
WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT. CIGS SHOULD SINK TO MVFR OVERNIGHT AS WELL.
IMPROVEMENTS WILL WAIT UNTIL MOSTLY AFTER 18Z WHEN THE WARM SECTOR
ESTABLISHES ITSELF MORE FIRMLY.
.AVIATION /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS A STRONG
SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
937 AM EDT SUN OCT 12 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN CHANCES RETURN TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT SURGES ACROSS THE
REGION. THE THREAT FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HI-RES MODELS LIKE THE HRRR AND THE RAP ARE STILL TRYING TO
GENERATE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON.
THINK THAT THESE MODELS ARE UNDERESTIMATING THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR
IN PLACE. 12Z PBZ SOUNDING TELLS THIS TALE PRETTY EMPHATICALLY.
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW DROPS REACHING THE GROUND ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST AS SHORTWAVE SKIMS BY TO THE SOUTH...BUT THAT SHOULD BE
IT. STILL DO EXPECT A CLOUD INCREASE LATER IN THE THE DAY THOUGH
AS FLOW TURNS SW ALOFT. LEFT POPS AFTER 00Z ALONE FOR NOW...BUT
MAY HAVE TO SLOW ONSET THERE A BIT AS WELL. TEMPERATURES TWEAKED
ACCORDING TO LAMP NUMBERS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EASTWARD TODAY. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT. THE BOUNDARY WILL PULL WARMER
AIR NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TRICKY FORECAST TONIGHT AS FRONT WILL CLEAR THE AREA DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. NOT MUCH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ALONG OR BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY AND HEIGHTS WILL RISE OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT ALLOWING FOR INCREASED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE...CAUGHT IN THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTH LATE TONIGHT. THIS ENERGY...COMBINING WITH A LOW LEVEL JET...
WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. WILL CONTINUE
WITH INCREASING POPS TO LIKELY OVERNIGHT. WITH THE STRONG FLOW OUT
OF THE SOUTH...TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL BE RISING.
UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BE SHEARED OFF TO THE EAST ON MONDAY...AND
THE AREA WILL BE WELL INTO THE WARM SECTOR. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
HEIGHTS SLOWLY RISE AS LARGE TROUGH DIGS AND DEEPENS OVER THE
CENTRAL US. THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS TO END MONDAY MORNING
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AND TEMPS TO WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.
MONDAY NIGHT LOOKS DRY AND MILD WITH A DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER.
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST BEGINS ON TUESDAY AS MODELS STILL HAVE NOT
COME TO AN AGREEMENT ON LOCATION...TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE
LARGE AND DEEP SYSTEM WHICH WILL BE GETTING WOUND UP OVER THE
CENTRAL US. WITH THE ENTIRE SYSTEM CUTTING OFF...AND THE SURFACE
LOW RAPIDLY DEEPENING...SLOWER PROGRESSION IS GENERALLY BETTER
WITH THESE TYPES OF SYSTEM. HAVE SLOWED THE ONSET OF POPS ON
TUESDAY AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THEY WILL HAVE TO BE HELD
BACK MORE. ENTIRE SYSTEM WILL OCCLUDE LATE TUESDAY. HOW FAST THE
OCCLUDED SURFACE FRONT SPINS AROUND THE SYSTEM WILL DETERMINE IF
THE AREA SEES SHOWERS TUESDAY. FOR CURRENT FORECAST WILL NOT STRAY
TOO FAR FROM PREVIOUS THINKING JUST SLOWING THINGS DOWN A BIT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE OCCLUDED FROM WILL REACH THE AREA SOMETIME TUESDAY NIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE TIMING OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS
FOR WHEN THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS REACH THE AREA. A CONVEYOR OF
MOISTURE WILL BE ESTABLISHING ITSELF WITH THE FRONT WHICH WILL
PULL MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF. BEHIND THE FRONT THE ENTIRE
SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST WEDNESDAY AND
OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE
RISK FOR SHOWERS. ENTIRE SYSTEM WILL EXIT THURSDAY NIGHT...DRYING
OUT THE AREA BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TODAY BEFORE A WARM FRONT LIFTS
ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AS RAISES A SLIGHT RISK OF INTER MITTEN
T MVFR CONDITIONS.
N ND L BE VEERING TED THE E TN GT...THEN SE TOMORROW AS A WARM FRONT
LIFTS ACRS THE REGION. SOME LATE DAY SHWRS MAY ACCOMPANY THAT
FEATURE ACRS SRN TERMINALS...BUT MORE WIDESPREAD PCPN AND RESTRICTIONS
SHOULD WAIT TIL NGTFALL.
.AVIATION /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THAT RESTRICTION POTENTIAL WL CONT FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK
AS DEEP LOW PRES SLIDES ACRS THE MIDWEST.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
738 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 429 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A SHARP TROF ACROSS THE
CNTRL CONUS WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE IN THE BASE OF THE TROF
BECOMING INCREASINGLY SEPARATED FROM THE FLOW IN THE NRN PORTION OF
THE TROF. THE SHARP TROF HAS TAPPED ABUNDANT MOISTURE AS ANALYSIS OF
12Z RAOBS SHOWED PRECIPITABLE WATER UP TO AROUND 1 INCH ACROSS UPPER
MI WHICH IS 175-200PCT OF NORMAL. RESULT HAS BEEN LOW CLOUDS
DOMINATING THIS AFTN. SOME -DZ/-SHRA/SPRINKLES EARLIER TODAY HAVE
ENDED...AND SO FAR THE AFTN HAS BEEN DRY.
TONIGHT INTO TUE...FLOW IN THE UPSTREAM TROF WILL CONTINUE TO
SEPARATE WHICH RESULTS IN THE SRN PORTION DEVELOPING INTO A CLOSED
LOW OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS THE NRN PORTION
SEPARATES...A WELL-DEFINED JET STREAK WILL DEVELOP FROM NRN ONTARIO
INTO QUEBEC TONIGHT...PLACING THE UPPER LAKES UNDER HEALTHY UPPER
DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF JET. DOWN BELOW...A RIBBON OF
STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS DEVELOPS ACROSS THE FCST AREA.
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASING UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES (NEAR
250PCT OF NORMAL) ACROSS THE FAR SE FCST AREA NEAR LAKE MI...STRONG
UPPER DIVERGENCE/FRONTOGENESIS SHOULD RESULT IN A SOLID AREA OF MDT
TO LOCALLY HVY RAINFALL SPREADING NNE ACROSS ROUGHLY THE E HALF OF
THE FCST AREA TONIGHT. BULK OF PCPN FALLS TONIGHT...BUT INCLUDING
LINGERING PCPN TUE...EXPECT PCPN AMOUNTS OF 1 INCH OR MORE FROM
MARQUETTE/DICKINSON COUNTIES EASTWARD WITH TOTALS OF 1.5 TO PERHAPS
2 INCHES TOWARD LAKE MICHIGAN. TYPICAL FOR THESE TYPE OF PCPN EVENTS
WHICH HAVE A STRONG FRONTOGENESIS COMPONENENT...THERE SHOULD BE A
FAIRLY SHARP W EDGE TO THE PCPN AREA. EXAMINATION OF THE NUMEROUS
AVBL MODELS INDICATES THAT THE WRN EDGE OF THE PCPN AREA WILL
PROBABLY BE JUST W OF UPPER MI. SO...WHILE PCPN AMOUNTS WILL TAIL
OFF QUICKLY WESTWARD...LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS WILL BE CARRIED TO
THE WRN EDGE OF UPPER MI.
WITH UPPER JET ACROSS NRN ONTARIO SHIFTING E ALONG WITH THE RIBBON
OF STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS...PCPN WILL DIMINISH FROM W TO
E TUE MORNING AND WILL END OVER THE W. HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER FORCING
REMAINS OVER MUCH OF UPPER MI THRU THE DAY...SO PLAN TO MAINTAIN A
MENTION OF PCPN THRU THE AFTN OVER THE CNTRL AND E...WITH HIGHEST
POPS TOWARD LAKE MI. AN UPPER JET STREAK ON THE E SIDE OF THE MID
LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL BE ALIGNED
FROM INDIANA UP LAKE MI/WRN LWR MI BY LATE IN THE DAY. UPPER
DIVERGENCE IN THE LEFT EXIT OF THIS JET STREAK WILL LIKELY SUPPORT
ANOTHER AREA OF PCPN THAT MAY BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO SRN PORTIONS OF
UPPER MI LATE IN THE DAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2014
TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU...AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW WOBBLES
THROUGH ILLINOIS...THE 12Z GFS AND ESPECIALLY THE 12Z ECMWF HAVE
TRENDED FARTHER TO THE NORTHWEST WITH THE STRONGER 700-300 MB
QVECTOR CONV AHEAD OF A SHRTWV ON THE NRN FLANK OF THE LOW WHILE THE
NAM WAS AN OUTLIER IN KEEPING MOST OF THE CWA DRY. EVEN THOUGH THERE
IS LINGERING UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM...MODELS
CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THAT HIGHER POPS AND QPF ARE WARRANTED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EAST. RAIN CHANCES WILL ALSO LINGER INTO WED NIGHT AND
THU ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF THE CWA AS THE ECMWF/GFS REMAIN FAR
ENOUGH TO THE WEST SO THAT ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE
LOW BRING POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF LIGHT SHOWERS.
THU NIGHT INTO SAT...WITH AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN DEVELOPING...THE WPC
PREFERRED ECMWF SUGGESTS THAT THE WRN RIDGE WILL ALLOW THE NRN
PLAINS TROUGH TO MERGE WITH THE GREAT LAKES LOW AND PERSIST INTO
SATURDAY. AS THE SFC LOW MOVES INTO NE ONTARIO TO NEAR JAMES BAY NW
WINDS AND CAA WILL TAKE OVER BRINGING IN COOLER AIR AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AS DEEPER MOISTURE PREVAILS. ENOUGH COLD AIR
WILL MOVE IN BY FRI NIGHT INTO SAT FOR LAKE ENHANCED RAIN POTENTIAL
FOR LOCATIONS FAVORED BY NW OR NNW FLOW.
SUN-MON...THE GFS/GEFS/ECMWF SUGGEST THAT THE TROUGH WILL SLIDE FAR
ENOUGH EAST TO REDUCE RAIN CHANCES WHILE NNW MID LEVEL LOW LINGERS.
TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 737 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2014
WIDESPREAD RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RESULT IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT
ALL THREE TAF SITES THROUGH THE NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION. WITH UPSLOPE FLOW PERSISTING LONGEST AT KSAW...THAT SITE TO
STAY IN IFR/LIFR THE LONGEST...BUT ALL THREE SITES SHOULD BE AT VFR
CIGS BY THE END OF THE FORECAST.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 429 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2014
WEAK PRES GRADIENT AND LIGHT WINDS MOSTLY UNDER 10KT WILL BE THE
RULE INITIALLY TONIGHT. THEN...AS LOW PRESSURE OVER SW MISSOURI
SLOWLY LIFTS NE...N TO NE WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE.
EXPECT N TO NE WINDS UP TO 20KT ON WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND UP TO 25KT
ON ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THE LOW WILL THEN WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS NE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WED/THU...ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH.
WINDS SHOULD BE UNDER 10KT BY THU. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKING ACROSS SRN CANADA THU WILL THEN MERGE WITH THE REMNANT
GREAT LAKES LOW ON FRI IN THE VICINITY OF JAMES BAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN W TO NW WINDS INCREASING INTO THE 15-25KT RANGE ON FRI AND
CONTINUING INTO SAT AS THE LOW MOVES LITTLE.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...RJT
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
737 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2014
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE OVER MISSOURI MOVES SLOWLY NORTHEAST THEN STALLS
OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL ARE ALSO POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN STALLED OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
BUT IT WILL REMAIN MILD THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S. A COOL DOWN IS ANTICIPATED FOR SATURDAY.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 605 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2014
I HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY LOWERED THE CHANCE OF RAIN TONIGHT ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THROUGH MIDNIGHT. I ALSO EXPUNGED
THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT FROM THE FORECAST TONIGHT. TO KEEP ALL OF
THE FORECAST DETAILS IN SYNC I ALSO LOWERED THE QPF SIGNIFICANTLY
TONIGHT AND FOR THAT MATTER TUESDAY. THE UPDATED FORECAST DOES
MATCH NICELY WITH THE LATEST FORECASTS FROM NEAR BY OFFICES
THROUGH TUESDAY.
MY MOTIVATION FOR DOING ALL THIS UPDATING IS THERE IS A 65 KNOT
LOW LEVEL JET HEADING DUE NORTH TOWARD MKE CURRENTLY. WITH SUCH A
STRONG JET GOING SO FAR WEST OF LOWER MICHIGAN... IT IS KEEPING
THE DECENT MOISTURE FLUX OUT OF THIS AREA. THAT IDEA IS SHOWN
NICELY WITH THE RAP 21Z 1000/850 MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS. THE
BOTTOM LINE IS MOST OF THE RAIN WILL MISS SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN
THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT. WE COULD SEE A FEW STRAY SHOWERS OF
COURSE BUT I DO BELIEVE MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHT TOO.
IT DOES LOOK LIKE A SECOND LOW LEVEL JET IS AIMED AS SOUTH CENTRAL
LOWER MICHIGAN TUESDAY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS... SO WE WILL LIKELY
STILL SEE SOME RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT NOT NEARLY AS MUCH WAS WE
WERE THINKING EARLIER.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2014
THE BULK OF THE STORM TOTAL RAIN FROM THIS EVENT FOR SW LWR MI
APPEARS TO OCCUR ON TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW DRAWS CLOSER AND THE
OCCLUSION IMPACTS THE AREA.
MODEL TREND OVER THE LAST TWO RUNS HAS BEEN TO LIFT THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL TONIGHT WITHIN THE TROWAL FARTHER NORTHWEST WHICH
ESSENTIALLY MEANS IT MISSES MOST OF THE CWFA WITH PERHAPS THE
EXCEPTION OF LUDINGTON.
IN FACT MOST MODEL STORM TOTAL RAINFALL SOLUTIONS ACTUALLY SHOW MUCH
OF SW LWR MI IN A RELATIVE MINIMUM AREA OF QPF IN BETWEEN THE
DEFORMATION ZONE TO THE NORTHWEST AND THE STRONG CONVECTION AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT TO THE SOUTH.
THAT SAID...WE SHOULD STILL SEE WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS NEAR AN INCH WITH
LOCALLY AS MUCH AS TWO INCHES. THIS SHOULD NOT CAUSE TOO MUCH OF
A PROBLEM ALTHOUGH WHERE HEAVY RAIN PERSISTS SOME PONDING OF WATER IS
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WHERE LEAVES CLOG STORM DRAINS.
AS FAR AS THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT... THERE IS PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR AVAILABLE BUT INSTABILITY IS LIMITED WITH GENERALLY 500 J/KG
OR LESS OF MU CAPE AVAILABLE. THE COVERAGE OF STORMS SHOULD BE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TONIGHT AND TUES. THE THING TO WATCH WILL BE
THE 60 KNOT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET WHICH COMES IN TONIGHT. THIS
COULD LEAD TO SOME RATHER GUSTY SOUTH TO NORTH MOVING SHOWERS IN THE
WARM SECTOR.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2014
MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED AS A SLOW MOVING
UPPER LOW JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES MERGES WITH A DIGGING
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH BEFORE IT FINALLY MOVES EAST. CYCLONIC FLOW
AND SOME LAKE CONTRIBUTION OF MOISTURE SUPPORTS KEEPING CHANCE OR
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING FOR EACH PERIOD FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. SHORTWAVE RIDGING ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY SHOULD
FINALLY DRY THINGS OUT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MODERATED BY THE
CONTINUOUS CLOUD COVER UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WHEN
CLEARING WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE 30S IN MOST PLACES.
THE FLOW BECOMES HIGHLY AMPLIFIED EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A DEEP TROUGH
AXIS OVER THE NE CONUS AND A SHARP RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS. THERE
COULD BE SOME SHOWERS ON MONDAY AS A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DIGS SOUTH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...BUT THE MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW A LOT OF DRY AIR AT MID LEVELS...SO WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 736 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2014
THE WARM FRONT HAS COME THROUGH AND CLEARED OUT THE LOW CLOUDS. A
BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
GRR AND MKG TAF SITE DURING THE NEXT HOUR... AFTER THAT I EXPECT
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WITH VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL LATER TONIGHT.
A SECOND SURGE OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A SECOND LOW LEVEL JET
AND UPPER LEVEL JET CORE WILL BRING THE LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
INTO ALL OF THE TAF SITES AFTER 06Z... MAYBE AS LATE AS 12Z. IN
ANY EVENT...I EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS BY 12Z AT ALL TAF SITES.
ANOTHER SURGE OF DRY AIR MOVES IN AFTER 18Z SO I EXPECT CLEARING
TO HAPPEN ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY
WITH I AM NOT SO SURE WE WILL SEE THUNDERSTORMS SO I PUT VCTS FOR
NOW.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2014
WHILE THE WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
COMES INTO THE AREA... THE SFC WINDS WILL HAVE A BIT OF AN OFFSHORE
COMPONENT. THIS WILL KEEP THE WAVE HEIGHTS DOWN NEAR THE COAST BUT
DESPITE THAT THE WIND SPEEDS ALONE MAY BECOME SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO
WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LATER TONIGHT. WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW.
WEB CAMS SHOW THAT FOG IS NOT A MAJOR ISSUE ALONG THE SW LWR MI
COASTLINE AND WITH THE WINDS INCREASING TONIGHT SEE NO NEED FOR A
MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2014
STORM TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO BE LESS THAN PREVIOUS
THINKING. GENERALLY AROUND A HALF INCH TO 2 INCHES IS EXPECTED. MOST
LOCATIONS WILL SEE LESS THAN AN INCH AND A HALF...WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE TOWARD LUDINGTON. THE TREND IN THE 12Z MODELS IS TO
PUSH THE SLOW-MOVING DEFORMATION BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL
TO THE NORTHWEST. MOST OF THE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO FALL AFTER 00Z
TUESDAY.
RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS
COULD RISE SHARPLY ON TUESDAY. CURRENT STREAMFLOW IN THE GRAND AND
KALAMAZOO RIVER BASINS IS RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL. THERE COULD ALSO BE
BRIEF MINOR URBAN FLOODING AND PONDING OF WATER IN LOW-LYING AREAS.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WDM
SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...EBW
MARINE...MEADE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
416 PM EDT SUN OCT 12 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EDT SUN OCT 12 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A DEEPENING TROF MOVING
OFF THE ROCKIES INTO THE WRN PLAINS. DOWNSTREAM OF THE TROF...
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW IS TRANSPORTING MOISTURE N UP THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS SHOWS UP NICELY ON VIS SATELLITE
IMAGERY AS A MASS OF CLOUDS QUICKLY SPREADING STEADILY N AT ABOUT
30KT WITH LEADING EDGE NOW INTO SE MN AND SW WI AS OF 19Z. CLOSER TO
HOME...IT`S BEEN A NICE MID OCT DAY THOUGH BREEZY IN SOME AREAS.
ADDED MOISTURE OFF LAKE MI LED TO SCT/BKN CLOUDS FOR A WHILE OVER
THE E. OTHERWISE...THERE`S BEEN ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. TEMPS HAVE RISEN
INTO THE MID 50S TO LWR 60S.
WITH A WEAK TEMP GRADIENT OVER THE WRN LAKES TONIGHT...ISENTROPIC
ASCENT IS LIMITED DESPITE CONTINUED SW FLOW. SOME WEAK DEEP LAYER
FORCING IS NOTED AS A COUPLE OF SUBTLE SHORTWAVES LIFT THRU THE WRN
GREAT LAKES. ALL IN ALL...THERE IS NOT A LOT OF SUPPORT FOR MUCH
PCPN EVEN THOUGH MOISTURE INCREASES SUBSTANTIALLY (PRECIPITABLE
WATER INCREASES FROM 50-60PCT OF NORMAL CURRENTLY TO 140-170PCT OF
NORMAL BY 12Z). UPSTREAM RADAR IMAGERY ONLY SHOWS ISOLD TO SCT
-SHRA/SPRINKLES ADVANCING NNE IN THE MOISTURE PLUME...SO A SPREAD OF
SCHC TO SPOTTY LOW CHC POPS N AND E INTO THE FCST AREA APPEARS
REASONABLE TONIGHT. INCREASING MOISTURE/CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM
FALLING SIGNIFICANTLY TONIGHT. 40S WILL BE THE RULE.
ON MON...SUBTLE SHORTWAVE LIFTING NE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY WILL
PROBABLY SUPPORT A CONTINUED THREAT OF ISOLD -SHRA/SPRINKLES IN THE
MORNING...THEN MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE REST OF THE DAY WILL PROBABLY
END UP DRY UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTN. DURING THE AFTN...STRENGTHENING
OF A JET STREAK FROM MN TO JAMES BAY WILL PLACE UPPER GREAT LAKES
UNDER THE INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE...AND DOWN
BELOW...IT WILL SERVE TO STRENGTHEN LOW/MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS/TIGHTENING OF THE THERMAL GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA.
ALL MODELS SHOW A HEALTHY RIBBON OF FRONTOGENESIS BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE UPPER LAKES LATE
IN THE DAY...BUT MUCH MORE SO MON NIGHT. AS A RESULT...A DEVELOPING
AREA OF MDT TO POSSIBLY HVY RAIN SHOULD BEGIN ORGANIZING/SPREADING
NNE THRU THE MID MISSISSIPPPI VALLEY MON AFTN. LEADING EDGE OF THIS
AREA OF DEVELOPING PCPN MAY BEGIN TO REACH THE WRN AND SRN FCST AREA
VERY LATE IN THE DAY...BUT GIVEN SLOWER MODEL TRENDS IN RECENT
DAYS...WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF PCPN HOLDS OFF UNTIL AFTER 00Z.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EDT SUN OCT 12 2014
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST
WITH WET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THE
HEAVIEST RAIN IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE MISSOURI
VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CLOSES OFF
JUST TO THE WEST OF THE SURFACE LOW MONDAY NIGHT. FAIRLY STRONG
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL SET UP EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE LOW AS
PLENTY OF MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE. THIS WILL ALLOW RAIN TO SPREAD
INTO MUCH OF THE AREA MONDAY EVENING AND LINGER THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH THE BETTER FOCUS BEING OVER THE CENTRAL AND
EAST WHERE THE STRONGER UPGLIDE OCCURS. AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTHWARD
AND BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED OVERNIGHT...A DECENT FGEN BAND IS
PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.P. THIS
WILL FOCUS STRONG QCONV OVER THESE AREAS ALONG WITH THE DEEP LAYER
1000 TO 500MB RH TO LEND SUPPORT TO A STEADY...MODERATE TO
OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA. PWAT VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 1 TO 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA...AGAIN
LENDING SUPPORT TO A DECENT RAINFALL. AS THE LOW WORKS SLOWLY EAST
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH WEDNESDAY EXPECT THE LOW
TO WEAKEN. THE INVERTED TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL LINGER
OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.P. THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME ALONG WITH
WEAK QCONV ALLOWING RAIN SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TIME
PERIOD. DRY AIR WILL BEGIN WORKING INTO THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE
U.P. TUESDAY MORNING ALLOWING SHOWERS TO TAPER OFF A BIT EARLIER
OVER THOSE AREAS.
AN ADDITIONAL CONCERN...ESPECIALLY DURING THE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT TIME PERIOD IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR LARGE WAVES TO DEVELOP ON
THE TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE INVERTED TROUGH. THESE WAVES
WOULD DEVELOP ON GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS....ALLOWING
WAVES TO REACH AROUND 8 FEET. THIS COULD CAUSE MINOR BEACH EROSION
ALONG THE MARQUETTE AND ALGER COUNTY SHORELINES.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...MODEL TRENDS BEGIN TO DIVERGE
ON THE OVERALL TIMING AND POSITION OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
SURFACE LOW SHIFTING TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER PENINSULA.
CURRENTLY...IT APPEARS AS IF MOST OF THE U.P. WILL ONLY SEE LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD AS OVERALL FORCING IS FAIRLY
WEAK AND MOISTURE IS NOT AS ABUNDANT.
FRIDAY THROUGH THE REMAINING EXTENDED...BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S. ALLOWING FOR
INTERMITTENT RAIN SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. PINNING DOWN
SPECIFICS WILL BE A BIT TOUGH AT THIS POINT AS INCREASED RAINFALL
POTENTIAL WILL BE CLOSELY RELATED TO TIMING OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL 500MB TROUGH. AGAIN MODELS VARY SIGNIFICANTLY
ON THE FINER DETAILS AT THIS POINT THEREFORE...WILL STICK CLOSELY TO
MODEL CONSENSUS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. ON SUNDAY...MODELS ARE
TRENDING TOWARD A RIDGE BUILDING IN TO THE AREA...WHICH WOULD BEGIN
TO LEND MORE SUPPORT TO A BIT WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 131 PM EDT SUN OCT 12 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THIS AFTN UNDER A DRY
AIR MASS. EVEN THOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE QUICKLY INCREASING THIS
EVENING UNDER S TO SW FLOW...INITIAL RESULT WILL ONLY BE MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS. LATE TONIGHT AND INTO MON MORNING...CIGS WILL FALL TO
MVFR AT ALL TERMINALS AS LOW LEVELS MOISTEN. IT`S POSSIBLE THAT
UPSLOPE FLOW COULD EVEN LEAD TO IFR CIGS DEVELOPING AT KSAW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EDT SUN OCT 12 2014
SOUTHERLY WINDS AS HIGH AS 15-25KT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
OVER ROUGHLY THE E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. PRES GRADIENT THEN WEAKENS
OVERNIGHT/MON AS A LOW PRES TROF MOVES E INTO THE UPPER LAKES WHILE
LOW PRES ORGANIZES ALONG THE TROF OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS
WILL RESULT IN WINDS DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT AND MON. WINDS WILL BE
UNDER 10KT ACROSS THE LAKE BY MON AFTN. AS THE LOW SLOWLY LIFTS
NE...WINDS WILL BECOME N TO NE MON NIGHT AND WILL INCREASE LATE. TUE
AND TUE NIGHT...EXPECT N TO NE WINDS UP TO 20KT ON WRN LAKE SUPERIOR
AND UP TO 25KT ON ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THE LOW WILL THEN WEAKEN AS IT
DRIFTS NE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WED/THU...ALLOWING WINDS TO
DIMINISH. WINDS SHOULD BE UNDER 10KT BY THU. ANOTHER LOW PRES SYSTEM
TRACKING ACROSS SRN CANADA THU WILL THEN MERGE WITH THE REMNANT
GREAT LAKES LOW ON FRI IN THE VCNTY OF JAMES BAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING W TO NW INTO THE 15-25KT RANGE ON FRI.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
132 PM EDT SUN OCT 12 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SUN OCT 12 2014
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW SHRTWV RDG MOVING
INTO THE WRN GREAT LKS TO THE E OF A DEEPENING UPR TROF IN THE
ROCKIES ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG SHRTWV DIGGING SEWD THRU THE PAC
NW. COMBINATION OF VERY DRY AIRMASS SHOWN ON THE 00Z GRB/MPX
RAOBS...WHERE THE 00Z PWAT WAS ABOUT 0.30 INCH OR 50 PCT OF
NORMAL...AND ACYC SW FLOW ARND SFC HI PRES CENTERED NEAR DETROIT IS
BRINGING ABOUT CLEAR SKIES EARLY THIS MRNG OVER UPR MI. TEMPS HAVE
FALLEN AS LO AS THE 20S AT THE COLD SPOTS OVER THE INTERIOR WHERE
THE WINDS HAVE DECOUPLED...BUT TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT AND A STEADY
DOWNSLOPE SSW WIND NEAR LK SUP HAVE HELD TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 40S
IN THOSE LOCATIONS. LOOKING UPSTREAM...MID/HI CLDS ARE ON THE INCRS
IN THE NRN PLAINS TO THE E OF THE DEEPENING TROF IN THE NRN ROCKIES.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM WL BE HI TEMPS TODAY AND THEN
PCPN CHCS TNGT AS THE SSW FLOW BTWN THE DEPARTING HI TO THE E AND
FALLING MSLP TO THE W AND SW TAPS MOISTER AIR OVER THE SRN CONUS.
TODAY...EXPECT A MOSUNNY DAY WITH DRY ACYC SSW FLOW DOMINATING THE
UPR GREAT LKS ON THE NW FLANK OF SFC HI PRES DRIFTING INTO NEW
ENGLAND LATE IN THE DAY. THE MODELS DO SHOW SOME INCRSG MID LVL MSTR
OVER THE W TOWARD 00Z MON...SO GRIDS WL SHOW MORE CLDS ARRIVING
THERE TOWARD SUNSET. THE 00Z GRB/MPX RAOBS INDICATED DAYTIME MIXING
REACHED TO H85 YDAY...SUPPORTING HI TEMPS REACHING THE LOWER 60S PER
FCST SDNGS AND IN LINE WITH UPSTREAM OBS ON SAT. EXPECT THE HIEST
TEMPS IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LK SUP. THE DAYTIME MIXING WL TAP
H925 WINDS UP TO 25 KTS AND CAUSE SOME GUSTY SFC WINDS.
TNGT...AS STRONG SHRTWV OVER THE PAC NW EARLY THIS MRNG DIGS INTO
THE SRN PLAINS...A DEEP UPR TROF IS FCST TO TAKE SHAPE TNGT IN THE
PLAINS...WITH A 998MB SFC LO FCST OVER OKLAHOME AT 12Z MON. ALTHOUGH
THE SLY SFC-H925 FLOW IS FCST TO SLOWLY WEAKEN UNDER WEAKENING PRES
GRADIENT OVER THE WRN GREAT LKS...MODELS SHOW SSW FLOW ALF E OF THE
DEEPENING TROF WL LIFT THE PWAT UP TO ARND 1 INCH OVER THE SRN CWA
BY 12Z MON. GIVEN THE INCRSD MOISTENING...MANY OF THE MODELS
GENERATE SOME LGT PCPN OVER AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA...MAINLY
AFTER 06Z OVER THE CENTRAL WHERE THERE IS SOME ISENTROPIC ASCENT
SHOWN ON THE 295K SFC /H8-85/. BUT IN ABSENCE OF ANY SGNFT DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC...IN FACT SOME OF THE MODELS SHOW DEEP LYR QVECTOR
DVGC AND SUBSIDENCE SO FAR N OF THE CYCLOGENESIS...OPTED TO GO NO
HIER THAN THE SCHC POPS SHOWN IN THE CURRENT FCST. THE INFLUX OF
MSTR WL LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP FALL DESPITE THE WEAKENING LLVL WINDS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SUN OCT 12 2014
...WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER IN STORE FOR EARLY THIS WEEK...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A DEEP UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE PLAINS AT 12Z MON CLOSING OFF BY TUE EVENING AS IT MOVES
OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A SFC LOW OVER OK AT 12Z SUN MOVES
NE WHILE BECOMING VERTICALLY STACKED BENEATH THE UPPER LOW. A FAIRLY
SHARP AREA OF DEFORMATION AND FRONTOGENETIC CIRCULATION DEVELOP
NEAR THE INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WHICH WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF FORCING
FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE ERN TWO THIRDS OF UPPER MI. THE BEST
MOISTURE ARRIVES LATE ON MON...WITH PWATS UP TO 1.5 INCHES OVER THE
FAR SERN CWA...WHICH IS 225-250 PERCENT OF NORMAL. BECAUSE OF
THIS...HELD OFF ON WIDESPREAD RAIN UNTIL LATE MON. AS IS OFTEN THE
CASE WITH STRONG DEFORMATION/FGEN PRECIP...A SHARP DRY CUTOFF IS
EXPECTED NW OF THE BEST FORCING...WHICH MAY LEAVE PORTIONS OF FAR
NWRN UPPER MI WITH AT LEAST MUCH LESS RAIN MON NIGHT.
GUSTY NORTH WINDS TUE-TUE NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR WAVES OF 7-9 FEET
ALONG THE SHORELINE OF MARQUETTE AND ALGER COUNTIES. GIVEN THE
RELATIVELY HIGH WATER LEVELS COMBINED WITH THE WAVE SETUP...THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MINOR BEACH EROSION IN THESE AREAS.
WITH THE UPPER LOW LINGERING S OF THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST
WED...CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW WILL PERSIST. HOWEVER...VERY DRY AIR WILL
BE LAID OUT OVER THE NWRN CWA...SO ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
CONFINED TO THE SERN CWA.
MODELS EXHIBIT POOR RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY AND MODEL TO MODEL
AGREEMENT AFTER WED WITH THE MERGING OF THE EXISTING SYSTEM AND
ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE REGION. HAVE VERY LOW CONFIDENCE FOR
THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
OVERALL...EXPECT TEMPS NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MID
WEEK...WITH COOLER CONDITIONS MORE LIKELY LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 131 PM EDT SUN OCT 12 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THIS AFTN UNDER A DRY
AIR MASS. EVEN THOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE QUICKLY INCREASING THIS
EVENING UNDER S TO SW FLOW...INITIAL RESULT WILL ONLY BE MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS. LATE TONIGHT AND INTO MON MORNING...CIGS WILL FALL TO
MVFR AT ALL TERMINALS AS LOW LEVELS MOISTEN. IT`S POSSIBLE THAT
UPSLOPE FLOW COULD EVEN LEAD TO IFR CIGS DEVELOPING AT KSAW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SUN OCT 12 2014
GENERALLY QUIET MARINE WEATHER TODAY. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF
10-20 KT WILL PERSIST TODAY. TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
ALONG THE FRONT IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOUTH WINDS TO GRADUALLY
WEAKEN TONIGHT AND MONDAY...BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AND
INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KT LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT WITH WAVES
BUILDING TO 6-9 FEET. THE LOW WEAKENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WED WHILE
MOVING NORTHEAST...ALLOWING THE WINDS TO ALSO WEAKEN TO 10-20 KT.
SOUTH WINDS ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD
FRONT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...TITUS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
728 AM EDT SUN OCT 12 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SUN OCT 12 2014
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW SHRTWV RDG MOVING
INTO THE WRN GREAT LKS TO THE E OF A DEEPENING UPR TROF IN THE
ROCKIES ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG SHRTWV DIGGING SEWD THRU THE PAC
NW. COMBINATION OF VERY DRY AIRMASS SHOWN ON THE 00Z GRB/MPX
RAOBS...WHERE THE 00Z PWAT WAS ABOUT 0.30 INCH OR 50 PCT OF
NORMAL...AND ACYC SW FLOW ARND SFC HI PRES CENTERED NEAR DETROIT IS
BRINGING ABOUT CLEAR SKIES EARLY THIS MRNG OVER UPR MI. TEMPS HAVE
FALLEN AS LO AS THE 20S AT THE COLD SPOTS OVER THE INTERIOR WHERE
THE WINDS HAVE DECOUPLED...BUT TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT AND A STEADY
DOWNSLOPE SSW WIND NEAR LK SUP HAVE HELD TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 40S
IN THOSE LOCATIONS. LOOKING UPSTREAM...MID/HI CLDS ARE ON THE INCRS
IN THE NRN PLAINS TO THE E OF THE DEEPENING TROF IN THE NRN ROCKIES.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM WL BE HI TEMPS TODAY AND THEN
PCPN CHCS TNGT AS THE SSW FLOW BTWN THE DEPARTING HI TO THE E AND
FALLING MSLP TO THE W AND SW TAPS MOISTER AIR OVER THE SRN CONUS.
TODAY...EXPECT A MOSUNNY DAY WITH DRY ACYC SSW FLOW DOMINATING THE
UPR GREAT LKS ON THE NW FLANK OF SFC HI PRES DRIFTING INTO NEW
ENGLAND LATE IN THE DAY. THE MODELS DO SHOW SOME INCRSG MID LVL MSTR
OVER THE W TOWARD 00Z MON...SO GRIDS WL SHOW MORE CLDS ARRIVING
THERE TOWARD SUNSET. THE 00Z GRB/MPX RAOBS INDICATED DAYTIME MIXING
REACHED TO H85 YDAY...SUPPORTING HI TEMPS REACHING THE LOWER 60S PER
FCST SDNGS AND IN LINE WITH UPSTREAM OBS ON SAT. EXPECT THE HIEST
TEMPS IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LK SUP. THE DAYTIME MIXING WL TAP
H925 WINDS UP TO 25 KTS AND CAUSE SOME GUSTY SFC WINDS.
TNGT...AS STRONG SHRTWV OVER THE PAC NW EARLY THIS MRNG DIGS INTO
THE SRN PLAINS...A DEEP UPR TROF IS FCST TO TAKE SHAPE TNGT IN THE
PLAINS...WITH A 998MB SFC LO FCST OVER OKLAHOME AT 12Z MON. ALTHOUGH
THE SLY SFC-H925 FLOW IS FCST TO SLOWLY WEAKEN UNDER WEAKENING PRES
GRADIENT OVER THE WRN GREAT LKS...MODELS SHOW SSW FLOW ALF E OF THE
DEEPENING TROF WL LIFT THE PWAT UP TO ARND 1 INCH OVER THE SRN CWA
BY 12Z MON. GIVEN THE INCRSD MOISTENING...MANY OF THE MODELS
GENERATE SOME LGT PCPN OVER AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA...MAINLY
AFTER 06Z OVER THE CENTRAL WHERE THERE IS SOME ISENTROPIC ASCENT
SHOWN ON THE 295K SFC /H8-85/. BUT IN ABSENCE OF ANY SGNFT DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC...IN FACT SOME OF THE MODELS SHOW DEEP LYR QVECTOR
DVGC AND SUBSIDENCE SO FAR N OF THE CYCLOGENESIS...OPTED TO GO NO
HIER THAN THE SCHC POPS SHOWN IN THE CURRENT FCST. THE INFLUX OF
MSTR WL LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP FALL DESPITE THE WEAKENING LLVL WINDS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SUN OCT 12 2014
...WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER IN STORE FOR EARLY THIS WEEK...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A DEEP UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE PLAINS AT 12Z MON CLOSING OFF BY TUE EVENING AS IT MOVES
OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A SFC LOW OVER OK AT 12Z SUN MOVES
NE WHILE BECOMING VERTICALLY STACKED BENEATH THE UPPER LOW. A FAIRLY
SHARP AREA OF DEFORMATION AND FRONTOGENETIC CIRCULATION DEVELOP
NEAR THE INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WHICH WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF FORCING
FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE ERN TWO THIRDS OF UPPER MI. THE BEST
MOISTURE ARRIVES LATE ON MON...WITH PWATS UP TO 1.5 INCHES OVER THE
FAR SERN CWA...WHICH IS 225-250 PERCENT OF NORMAL. BECAUSE OF
THIS...HELD OFF ON WIDESPREAD RAIN UNTIL LATE MON. AS IS OFTEN THE
CASE WITH STRONG DEFORMATION/FGEN PRECIP...A SHARP DRY CUTOFF IS
EXPECTED NW OF THE BEST FORCING...WHICH MAY LEAVE PORTIONS OF FAR
NWRN UPPER MI WITH AT LEAST MUCH LESS RAIN MON NIGHT.
GUSTY NORTH WINDS TUE-TUE NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR WAVES OF 7-9 FEET
ALONG THE SHORELINE OF MARQUETTE AND ALGER COUNTIES. GIVEN THE
RELATIVELY HIGH WATER LEVELS COMBINED WITH THE WAVE SETUP...THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MINOR BEACH EROSION IN THESE AREAS.
WITH THE UPPER LOW LINGERING S OF THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST
WED...CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW WILL PERSIST. HOWEVER...VERY DRY AIR WILL
BE LAID OUT OVER THE NWRN CWA...SO ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
CONFINED TO THE SERN CWA.
MODELS EXHIBIT POOR RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY AND MODEL TO MODEL
AGREEMENT AFTER WED WITH THE MERGING OF THE EXISTING SYSTEM AND
ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE REGION. HAVE VERY LOW CONFIDENCE FOR
THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
OVERALL...EXPECT TEMPS NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MID
WEEK...WITH COOLER CONDITIONS MORE LIKELY LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 726 AM EDT SUN OCT 12 2014
EXPECT SOME MARGINAL LLWS AT THE TAF SITES THIS MRNG BEFORE DAYTIME
HEATING MIXES OUT THE LLJ AND CAUSES GUSTY SSW WINDS THRU THE
AFTN...ESPECIALLY AT THE MORE EXPOSED SAW/IWD SITES. VERY DRY
AIRMASS SHOWN ON THE UPSTREAM 00Z MPX/GRB RAOBS WL BRING VFR WX TO
ALL 3 SITES INTO THIS EVNG. THE GUSTY WINDS WL DIMINISH TOWARD
SUNSET WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND WEAKENING PRES GRADIENT/LLVL
WINDS. CLDS WL BE ON THE INCRS TNGT AS THE DEEP S FLOW DRAWS MOISTER
AIR INTO THE UPR LKS. PLAN ON MVFR CIGS TO DVLP AT IWD AND PERHAPS
SAW LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD WITH THE ARRIVAL OF DEEPER MSTR S TO N.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SUN OCT 12 2014
GENERALLY QUIET MARINE WEATHER TODAY. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF
10-20 KT WILL PERSIST TODAY. TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
ALONG THE FRONT IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOUTH WINDS TO GRADUALLY
WEAKEN TONIGHT AND MONDAY...BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AND
INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KT LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT WITH WAVES
BUILDING TO 6-9 FEET. THE LOW WEAKENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WED WHILE
MOVING NORTHEAST...ALLOWING THE WINDS TO ALSO WEAKEN TO 10-20 KT.
SOUTH WINDS ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD
FRONT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...TITUS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
317 AM EDT SUN OCT 12 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SUN OCT 12 2014
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW SHRTWV RDG MOVING
INTO THE WRN GREAT LKS TO THE E OF A DEEPENING UPR TROF IN THE
ROCKIES ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG SHRTWV DIGGING SEWD THRU THE PAC
NW. COMBINATION OF VERY DRY AIRMASS SHOWN ON THE 00Z GRB/MPX
RAOBS...WHERE THE 00Z PWAT WAS ABOUT 0.30 INCH OR 50 PCT OF
NORMAL...AND ACYC SW FLOW ARND SFC HI PRES CENTERED NEAR DETROIT IS
BRINGING ABOUT CLEAR SKIES EARLY THIS MRNG OVER UPR MI. TEMPS HAVE
FALLEN AS LO AS THE 20S AT THE COLD SPOTS OVER THE INTERIOR WHERE
THE WINDS HAVE DECOUPLED...BUT TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT AND A STEADY
DOWNSLOPE SSW WIND NEAR LK SUP HAVE HELD TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 40S
IN THOSE LOCATIONS. LOOKING UPSTREAM...MID/HI CLDS ARE ON THE INCRS
IN THE NRN PLAINS TO THE E OF THE DEEPENING TROF IN THE NRN ROCKIES.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM WL BE HI TEMPS TODAY AND THEN
PCPN CHCS TNGT AS THE SSW FLOW BTWN THE DEPARTING HI TO THE E AND
FALLING MSLP TO THE W AND SW TAPS MOISTER AIR OVER THE SRN CONUS.
TODAY...EXPECT A MOSUNNY DAY WITH DRY ACYC SSW FLOW DOMINATING THE
UPR GREAT LKS ON THE NW FLANK OF SFC HI PRES DRIFTING INTO NEW
ENGLAND LATE IN THE DAY. THE MODELS DO SHOW SOME INCRSG MID LVL MSTR
OVER THE W TOWARD 00Z MON...SO GRIDS WL SHOW MORE CLDS ARRIVING
THERE TOWARD SUNSET. THE 00Z GRB/MPX RAOBS INDICATED DAYTIME MIXING
REACHED TO H85 YDAY...SUPPORTING HI TEMPS REACHING THE LOWER 60S PER
FCST SDNGS AND IN LINE WITH UPSTREAM OBS ON SAT. EXPECT THE HIEST
TEMPS IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LK SUP. THE DAYTIME MIXING WL TAP
H925 WINDS UP TO 25 KTS AND CAUSE SOME GUSTY SFC WINDS.
TNGT...AS STRONG SHRTWV OVER THE PAC NW EARLY THIS MRNG DIGS INTO
THE SRN PLAINS...A DEEP UPR TROF IS FCST TO TAKE SHAPE TNGT IN THE
PLAINS...WITH A 998MB SFC LO FCST OVER OKLAHOME AT 12Z MON. ALTHOUGH
THE SLY SFC-H925 FLOW IS FCST TO SLOWLY WEAKEN UNDER WEAKENING PRES
GRADIENT OVER THE WRN GREAT LKS...MODELS SHOW SSW FLOW ALF E OF THE
DEEPENING TROF WL LIFT THE PWAT UP TO ARND 1 INCH OVER THE SRN CWA
BY 12Z MON. GIVEN THE INCRSD MOISTENING...MANY OF THE MODELS
GENERATE SOME LGT PCPN OVER AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA...MAINLY
AFTER 06Z OVER THE CENTRAL WHERE THERE IS SOME ISENTROPIC ASCENT
SHOWN ON THE 295K SFC /H8-85/. BUT IN ABSENCE OF ANY SGNFT DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC...IN FACT SOME OF THE MODELS SHOW DEEP LYR QVECTOR
DVGC AND SUBSIDENCE SO FAR N OF THE CYCLOGENESIS...OPTED TO GO NO
HIER THAN THE SCHC POPS SHOWN IN THE CURRENT FCST. THE INFLUX OF
MSTR WL LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP FALL DESPITE THE WEAKENING LLVL WINDS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SUN OCT 12 2014
...WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER IN STORE FOR EARLY THIS WEEK...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A DEEP UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE PLAINS AT 12Z MON CLOSING OFF BY TUE EVENING AS IT MOVES
OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A SFC LOW OVER OK AT 12Z SUN MOVES
NE WHILE BECOMING VERTICALLY STACKED BENEATH THE UPPER LOW. A FAIRLY
SHARP AREA OF DEFORMATION AND FRONTOGENETIC CIRCULATION DEVELOP
NEAR THE INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WHICH WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF FORCING
FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE ERN TWO THIRDS OF UPPER MI. THE BEST
MOISTURE ARRIVES LATE ON MON...WITH PWATS UP TO 1.5 INCHES OVER THE
FAR SERN CWA...WHICH IS 225-250 PERCENT OF NORMAL. BECAUSE OF
THIS...HELD OFF ON WIDESPREAD RAIN UNTIL LATE MON. AS IS OFTEN THE
CASE WITH STRONG DEFORMATION/FGEN PRECIP...A SHARP DRY CUTOFF IS
EXPECTED NW OF THE BEST FORCING...WHICH MAY LEAVE PORTIONS OF FAR
NWRN UPPER MI WITH AT LEAST MUCH LESS RAIN MON NIGHT.
GUSTY NORTH WINDS TUE-TUE NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR WAVES OF 7-9 FEET
ALONG THE SHORELINE OF MARQUETTE AND ALGER COUNTIES. GIVEN THE
RELATIVELY HIGH WATER LEVELS COMBINED WITH THE WAVE SETUP...THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MINOR BEACH EROSION IN THESE AREAS.
WITH THE UPPER LOW LINGERING S OF THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST
WED...CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW WILL PERSIST. HOWEVER...VERY DRY AIR WILL
BE LAID OUT OVER THE NWRN CWA...SO ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
CONFINED TO THE SERN CWA.
MODELS EXHIBIT POOR RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY AND MODEL TO MODEL
AGREEMENT AFTER WED WITH THE MERGING OF THE EXISTING SYSTEM AND
ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE REGION. HAVE VERY LOW CONFIDENCE FOR
THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
OVERALL...EXPECT TEMPS NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MID
WEEK...WITH COOLER CONDITIONS MORE LIKELY LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 124 AM EDT SUN OCT 12 2014
VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THIS FORECAST. SW WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO
INCREASE A BIT THRU THIS MORNING AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND THE
PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS. DAYTIME MIXING WL TAP THE STRONGER WINDS AND
CAUSE WINDS GUSTS UP TO ARND 20 KTS THIS AFTN. CLDS WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE AFTER 0Z WITH INCRSG MSTR...BUT CIGS WL REMAIN
VFR WITH LINGERING DRY LLVL AIR.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SUN OCT 12 2014
GENERALLY QUIET MARINE WEATHER TODAY. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF
10-20 KT WILL PERSIST TODAY. TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
ALONG THE FRONT IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOUTH WINDS TO GRADUALLY
WEAKEN TONIGHT AND MONDAY...BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AND
INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KT LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT WITH WAVES
BUILDING TO 6-9 FEET. THE LOW WEAKENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WED WHILE
MOVING NORTHEAST...ALLOWING THE WINDS TO ALSO WEAKEN TO 10-20 KT.
SOUTH WINDS ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD
FRONT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...TITUS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
134 AM EDT SUN OCT 12 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT SAT OCT 11 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW THAT THE PERSISTENT TROF
THAT HAS DOMINATED SE CANADA AND THE NE CONUS IS NOW LIFTING OUT AS
STRONG JET AND NEW TROF BEGIN TO PUSH INTO THE NWRN CONUS.
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE NRN PLAINS/SCNTRL CANADA IS ALSO BEING
FORCED EASTWARD. AS A RESULT...WAA IS BEGINNING TO SPREAD INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTN. EARLIER TODAY...QUITE A BIT OF
CU/STRATOCU DEVELOPED WITHIN 850MB THERMAL TROF THAT WAS PUSHING
ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN UPPER MI. COMBINATION OF WEAK WAA AND MIXING
OUT OF MOISTURE HAS LED TO RAPID DISSIPATION OF THESE CLOUDS FROM
THE W. AS OF 19Z...CLOUDS ARE STILL HANGING ON E OF A
MUNISING/ESCANABA LINE. EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO CLEAR OUT OVER THE
NEXT FEW HRS.
SHORT TERM WEATHER WILL BE QUIET AS UPSTREAM RIDGE SHIFTS ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT AND THEN TO THE E ON SUN. THIS WILL RESULT IN GRADUALLY
STRENGTHENING SW FLOW/WAA. TONIGHT...AXIS OF STRONGEST
WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS FOCUSED WELL TO THE N TOWARD JAMES BAY
VCNTY. SO...PCPN IS NOT A CONCERN HERE. IN FACT...SKY WILL BE CLEAR.
ONLY ISSUE TONIGHT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO DEVELOP OVER THE ERN
FCST AREA. LIGHT/CALM WIND AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AT LEAST
THRU THE EVENING WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 30S IN THE
INTERIOR AND AS LOW AS THE UPPER 20S/LWR 30S IN THE TRADITIONAL COLD
SPOTS. WITH TEMPS FALLING PAST THE CROSSOVER TEMP AND MORE
IMPORTANTLY WITH LIGHT NEAR SFC FLOW OFF NRN LAKE MICHIGAN ADVECTING
HIGHER DWPTS INLAND OVERNIGHT...SEEMS LIKELY THAT SOME FOG WILL
DEVELOP.
DESPITE PERSISTENT SW FLOW...COLUMN REMAINS DRY ON SUNDAY. THUS...
EXPECT ABUNDANT SUNSHINE ONLY FILTERED BY SOME INCREASE IN HIGH
CLOUDS DURING THE AFTN. MIXING TO 875-850MB ON FCST SOUNDINGS YIELDS
MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 50S TO AS HIGH AS THE LWR 60S.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT SAT OCT 11 2014
...WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER IN STORE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MON MORNING SHOULD END UP BEING FAIRLY QUIET WITH
THE BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH STILL WEST OF
THE AREA. HOWEVER...AS THE FRONT AND TROUGH MOVE EAST...EXPECT AN
INCREASE OF MOISTURE AND CLOUDS...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN LATE CLOSE TO THE WI BORDER.
AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST
SUNDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG IT IN THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THIS LOW WILL MOVE NORTH/NORTHEAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE
GFS LOOKS TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF IN SHOWING A
FAIRLY SHARP AREA OF DEFORMATION AND FRONTOGENETIC CIRCULATION
DEVELOPING NEAR THE INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE GFS NOW SUGGESTS THAT THE
BEST FORCING AND 850MB THERMAL PACKING WILL BE SUPPRESSED SLIGHTLY
FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH WHICH IS SIMILAR TO WHAT THE ECMWF HAS SHOWN.
AS SUCH...THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO FAR
NORTHERN LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER MI. HOWEVER...AM STILL EXPECTING
MOST OF THE EASTERN 2/3 OF UPPER MICHIGAN TO SEE STEADY RAINFALL
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY SINCE PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WILL STILL BE 150-200 PCT OF NORMAL ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN. AS SUCH...WILL MAINTAIN CATEGORICAL POPS
ACROSS MUCH OF UPPER MICHIGAN MON NIGHT AND MAINTAIN THOSE INTO TUE
MORNING ACROSS THE EAST. WITH DRY EASTERLY FLOW INITIALLY...WILL OPT
TO HOLD OFF THE STEADY PCPN ACROSS THE FAR EAST UNTIL MON EVENING.
GUSTY NORTH WINDS TUE-TUE NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR WAVES OF 7-9 FEET
ALONG THE SHORELINE OF MARQUETTE AND ALGER COUNTIES. GIVEN THE
RELATIVELY HIGH WATER LEVELS COMBINED WITH THE WAVE SETUP...THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MINOR BEACH EROSION IN THESE AREAS.
THE UPPER LOW WILL BE QUITE SLOW TO MOVE OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AS IT BECOMES CUT OFF FROM THE MEAN FLOW TO TH NORTH. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT TO PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH WED AT LEAST. MEANWHILE...CONSIDERABLY DRIER AIR ATTEMPTS TO
MOVE IN FROM THE WEST WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES LOWERING TO
BELOW 1 INCH. WITH THIS SAID...CANNOT RULE OUT A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
ACROSS THE EAST ON TUE NIGHT INTO WED WHERE THE BETTER MOISTURE WILL
BE. HOWEVER...DYNAMICS WILL BE FAIRLY LIMITED DESPITE CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT...AND INSTABILITY OFF THE LAKE WILL BE MINIMAL AT BEST DUE TO
WARM 850MB TEMPS OF AROUND +8C. WILL THEREFORE LIMIT CHC POPS ONLY
TO THE EAST TUE NIGHT INTO WED AND KEEP THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
DRY. MAY HAVE A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
FINALLY LIFTS OUT AND THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
HOWEVER...THE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE CERTAINLY NOT CONSISTENT WITH THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND PCPN IN THIS PERIOD...WITH THE ECMWF BEING
MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS OR GEM. BEHIND THIS TROUGH...850MB
TEMPS DROP TO -6C FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WHICH COMBINED WITH NW PBL
FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A
FEW WET SNOW FLAKES SATURDAY MORNING.
OVERALL...MUCH OF THE WEEK WILL SEE TEMPS AT OR ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGHS EACH DAY IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 124 AM EDT SUN OCT 12 2014
VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THIS FORECAST. SW WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO
INCREASE A BIT THRU THIS MORNING AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND THE
PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS. DAYTIME MIXING WL TAP THE STRONGER WINDS AND
CAUSE WINDS GUSTS UP TO ARND 20 KTS THIS AFTN. CLDS WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE AFTER 0Z WITH INCRSG MSTR...BUT CIGS WL REMAIN
VFR WITH LINGERING DRY LLVL AIR.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT SAT OCT 11 2014
GENERALLY QUIET MARINE WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10-20 KT WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. THESE WINDS WILL PERSIST ON SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT...LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SLOWLY
MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOUTH
WINDS TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY...BEFORE SHIFTING TO
THE NORTH AND INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KT ON TUE/TUE NIGHT WITH WAVES
BUILDING TO 6-9 FEET. THE LOW WEAKENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WED WHILE
MOVING NORTHEAST...ALLOWING THE WINDS TO ALSO WEAKEN TO 10-20 KT.
SOUTH WINDS ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD
FRONT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...MRD
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...MRD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
234 PM MDT SUN OCT 12 2014
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR MON AND TUE...
LINGERING SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND MOISTURE IN THE NNW FLOW WILL KEEP
SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FORECAST
AREA...MAINLY THIS EVENING. RAP SOUNDINGS SHOWED SOME CAPE AND
STEEP LAPSE RATES OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING WHICH WILL SUPPORT A
CONTINUED CHANCE OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS
IN FOR MON...MODELS SHOWED A SHORTWAVE WITH SOME MOISTURE MOVING
OVER THE SW MOUNTAINS. TIME-HEIGHTS FOR THE MOUNTAINS HAD NO
UPWARD MOTION AND LIMITED MOISTURE...AND MODELS DID NOT GENERATE
ANY QPF SO WILL NOT MENTION ANY PRECIPITATION THERE AT THIS TIME.
THE UPPER RIDGE AND AN ACCOMPANYING DRY AIRMASS WILL SLIDE E
THROUGH TUE NIGHT KEEPING THE REGION DRY.
MODEL MIXING PROFILES SUPPORTED THE GOING TEMPERATURE FORECAST SO
HAVE MADE VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO INHERITED VALUES. LEE TROUGHING
MON NIGHT AND TUE NIGHT WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS TO GAP FLOW AREAS.
AT THIS POINT...GRADIENT DID NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY
HIGHLIGHTS. MON AND TUE WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY OVER CENTRAL AND
WESTERN AREAS DUE TO GOOD MIXING. ARTHUR
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...
WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKING QUITE WARM WITH INCREASED WIND AS PACIFIC
FRONT PUSHES INTO OUR WEST EITHER IN THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING...MODELS REMAIN IN SOME DISAGREEMENT HERE. LOOKS LIKE A
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING DAY WHICH SHOULD BE WARMER THAN GUIDANCE SO
HAVE TWEAKED TEMPS UP A LITTLE MORE. COULD SEE 80F APPROACHED IN
CENTRAL OR EASTERN PARTS. OTHERWISE WE SHOULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD
OF SYNOPTIC ASCENT INTO OUR WEST DUE TO PACIFIC SHORTWAVE BY
AFTERNOON. GIVEN THIS IS PEAK HEATING AND WE SHOULD SEE SOME
DIURNAL INSTABILITY ESPECIALLY AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL...HAVE
EXPANDED SLIGHT POPS TO INCLUDE THE LIVINGSTON TO HARLOWTON AREAS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. FAST-MOVING ENERGY MAY BRING A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS TO OUR FAR NORTH IN THE EVENING...THEN DESCENT SPREADS IN
QUICKLY THROUGH THE NIGHT PUTTING AN END TO ANY PCPN CHANCES. MAIN
IMPACT FROM THIS WAVE WILL BE INCREASED WESTERLY WINDS FROM
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY.
MOSTLY QUIET WEATHER SHOULD DOMINATE OUR REGION THURSDAY THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND...WITH TEMPS STAYING ABOVE NORMAL AND IN THE 60S FOR
HIGHS...AND MAYBE BACK NEAR 70F BY NEXT WEEKEND. ECMWF/GFS SUGGEST
A WEAK PACIFIC SHORTWAVE ON SATURDAY...BUT WITH LITTLE MOISTURE TO
WORK WITH. WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY.
LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A RETURN
TO STRONG RIDGING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS EARLY THE FOLLOWING
WEEK...WITH A PERSISTENT LOW HEIGHT ANOMALY IN THE NORTH PACIFIC.
AT THIS TIME THERE IS NO SIGN OF A PATTERN SHIFT TO COLDER
CONDITIONS BUT WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE TROPICAL
PACIFIC AS IT REMAINS ACTIVE.
JKL
&&
.AVIATION...
SCATTERED LOWER ELEVATION RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON UNDER UNSTABLE NW FLOW ALOFT. LOCAL
MVFR IS POSSIBLE MAINLY NEAR THE FOOTHILLS...AND THE MOUNTAINS
WILL BE FREQUENTLY OBSCURED. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING. VFR WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECT NW-N WIND GUSTS OF 20-30
KTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A DECREASE IN WIND SPEEDS ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND
MONDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS INCLUDING LIVINGSTON. JKL
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 038/064 045/076 050/075 045/062 036/062 043/069 044/067
20/B 00/U 00/B 10/N 00/U 11/B 11/U
LVM 033/064 041/074 046/071 040/058 034/063 039/066 041/064
20/N 00/N 02/W 11/N 11/B 11/B 11/B
HDN 037/066 039/078 045/077 042/065 034/065 039/071 041/069
20/U 00/U 00/B 10/U 00/U 11/B 11/U
MLS 037/065 039/078 045/078 044/063 035/062 036/067 041/066
20/B 00/U 00/U 20/N 00/U 11/B 11/B
4BQ 036/063 039/079 046/078 044/063 034/062 036/067 040/067
20/U 00/U 00/U 00/N 00/U 01/U 11/B
BHK 034/062 036/073 043/076 043/060 031/057 032/061 036/062
20/U 00/U 00/U 10/N 00/U 01/B 11/B
SHR 032/061 036/076 043/079 039/062 030/063 036/069 040/066
20/U 00/U 00/B 00/U 00/U 01/B 11/U
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
245 PM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 154 PM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE TIMING AND EXTENT OF PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
RADAR SHOWING AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA LIFTING TOWARD NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AT 19Z. ALTHOUGH 12Z
MODELS SHOW SOME RAIN MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND MONDAY
THE BETTER CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL LOOKS TO STAY SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE CWA. LATEST RAP AND HRRR ALSO SHOW THIS TREND THROUGH
THE EVENING WITH BETTER FORCING AND INSTABILITY LOCATED TO THE
SOUTH.
HAVE ADJUSTED WEATHER DURING THIS TIME BY REMOVING MODERATE
CATEGORY OF RAIN AND KEPT JUST LIGHT SHOWERS TO REFLECT THIS
LATEST MODEL SOLUTION. SOME ISOLATED THUNDER IS POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST BORDER WHERE SOME INSTABILITY IS
INDICATED THROUGH 06Z. PRIMARY IMPACT WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE
WIND BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. INCREASING
NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA
AFTER 06Z TONIGHT THEN SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA ON
MONDAY. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL STAY JUST
WEST OF THE CWA ON MONDAY SO NO WIND HEADLINES FOR NOW. LATER
SHIFTS WILL REEVALUATE FOR ANY CHANGE TO THAT THINKING.
WINDS WILL BE DECREASING DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY ONCE SYSTEM
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COOL ON MONDAY DUE TO CLOUDS AND RAIN BUT THINGS WARM UP
QUICKLY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE NATION...ALTHOUGH 12Z ECMWF HOLDS ON TO THE
UPPER LOW OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLY LONGER THAN THE NAM OR
GFS WHICH COULD KEEP CLOUDS OVER EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA IF
THIS SOLUTION WORKS OUT.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 154 PM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014
EXTENDED MODELS SHOW SOME DIFFERENCE IN HANDLING OF THE UPPER
FEATURES DURING THE PERIOD...SO SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PART OF
THE FORECAST. PRIMARY TREND AT THIS TIME LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014
A BKN DECK HAS STUBBORNLY REMAINED OVER SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND
SOUTHWEST IOWA THIS MORNING. A LEAST FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS THESE CLOUDS WILL AFFECT OMA. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD
FRONT...CURRENTLY OVER THE PANHANDLE...WORKS THROUGH EASTERN
NEBRASKA INTO IOWA. THE LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS THE FRONT GETTING
TO OFK BY 03Z...OMA BY 08Z AND TO LNK BY 04Z. OVERALL MOISTURE IS
FAIRLY DEEP WITH THIS FRONT...THUS DECIDED TO LOWER CIGS A BIT
FROM THE GOING FORECAST. SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR
IFR CIGS...FOR NOW FEEL THIS IS OVERDONE AND WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST AT THE LOW END OF MVFR. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...THROUGH
THIS EVENING...CAN/T BE RULED OUT GIVEN A SMALL AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY AVAILABLE. CONFIDENCE WASN/T HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN
THIS TAF PACKAGE.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...PEARSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
224 PM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MAIN ISSUES ARE PRECIPITATION ONGOING...
AND STRONG WINDS MONDAY.
THE AS ADVERTISED STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE ON TRACK
FOR RAPID STRENGTHENING AND CYCLOGENISIS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
THE NEXT 18-24 HOURS. INITIAL COLD FRONTAL SURGE IS CURRENTLY ACROSS
WESTERN NEBRASKA...APPROACHING THEDFORD AND NORTH PLATTE. THIS SEEMS
A BIT QUICKER GIVEN THE TENDENCY THE LAST DAY OR SO FOR THE MODELS
TO BE A BIT SLOWER OVERALL WITH DEVELOPING FEATURES. INITIAL ROUND
OF DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION AND MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION HAS
SPARKED A SLOW TO MOVE AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WHICH BEGAN FIRST THING THIS MORNING. COUPLE AUTOMATED WEATHER
STATIONS DID REPORT ABOUT ONE-QUARTER INCH OF RAIN IN PHILLIPS COUNTY
KANSAS...AND THIS HAS BEEN A STEADY EVENT ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVELS
ARE VERY DRY WITH NEAR 40 DEWPOINTS OVER THE NORTHEAST FORECAST
AREA. RELYING ON THE HRRR AND ITS HANDLING...THIS PRECIPITATION
GRADUALLY MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...AND LOSES SOME STEAM AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE DRY AIR. THAT
IS TREND FOLLOWED IN THE FORECAST...ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED STORM
OR TWO.
MAIN PRECIPITATION CHANCE COMES LATER TONIGHT. AS THE COLD FRONT
FIRES UP THE DEEPENING LOW WITH INCREASING BAROCLINICITY...A CLASSIC
DEFORMATION AXIS SETS UP ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE MAIN UPPER
LEVEL LOW. SOME 12Z MODELS /WRF-NAM/ NOW HOLD THAT AXIS FURTHER
NORTHWEST AND IMPLY A STEADY RAIN IS POSSIBLE EVEN IN THE HASTINGS
AREA. OTHER MODELS CONTINUE TO OFFER THE RAIN JUST A BIT FURTHER
SOUTHEAST...BUT SOLIDLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...AND SOUTHEAST
OF A YORK TO RED CLOUD LINE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. THAT IS
WERE THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES HAVE BEEN...AND CONTINUE TO
BE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE...THERE WILL
BE AN EXTREMELY SHARP CUTOFF FROM RAIN TO NO-RAIN PROBABLY SOUTHEAST
OF HASTINGS. IN THE RAIN AREA...ITS A SOLID CHILLY RAIN...BUT WILL
END ABOUT AS ABRUPTLY AS IT CAN AT SOME POINT ON ITS NORTHWEST EDGE.
RAIN AMOUNTS COULD BE DECENT IN THIS BAND...ALTHOUGH ITS HARD TO
SELL OUT GIVEN THE EXACT BAND LOCATION WILL NOT BE KNOW FOR SEVERAL
HOURS. THE RAIN WRAPS UP BY MIDDAY IN THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA...
AND CLEARING SKIES WILL PULL EAST NICELY BY AFTERNOON.
THE OTHER MAIN STORY ON MONDAY IS THE WIND. DEEPENING LOW...GOOD
MIXING...NICE UNI-DIRECTIONAL SHEAR...ALL POINT TO STRONG MOMENTUM
TRANSFER DOWNWARD OF STRONG WINDS. GUST POTENTIAL IN THE 50 MPH IS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE LATE MORNING/MIDDAY TIMFRAME ACROSS
FAR SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS IN THE LATE MORNING
AND MIDDAY AREAS. HOISTED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE DAY MONDAY. IT MAY
NOT BE A SLAM DUNK IN THE NORTHEAST AREAS...AND BEGINNING AND ENDING
TIMES ARE NOT WELL ALIGNED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...BUT CONSENSUS
AMONG US AND SEVERAL KANSAS OFFICES WAS A WIND ADVISORY. ADVISORY
STARTS AT 7 AM AND ENDS AT 7 PM MONDAY FOR ALL AREAS TO MAKE THINGS
EASY.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
STARTING OUT MONDAY NIGHT...THE PATTERN ALOFT WILL BE AMPLIFIED WITH
AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NW...RIDGING OVER THE
ROCKIES...A TROUGH IN THE INTERIOR CONUS ACROSS THE PLAINS GENERALLY
ALONG THE MO RIVER...AND UPPER RIDGING IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. IN A
TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE SFC LOW IN IOWA...NORTH
WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG/GUST FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS DURING THE
EVENING BEFORE DECOUPLING.
THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO EXIT TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY WITH RISING HEIGHTS AND WARMER AIR WORKING ONTO THE PLAINS
AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE ROCKIES REACHES THE HIGH PLAINS. THE
LLVL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL NOT BE AS TIGHT ON TUESDAY HOWEVER
FORECAST SOUNDING INDICATE MIXING TO H85 WITH WINDS AT THE TOP OF
THE LAYER AROUND 25KTS THRU THE MORNING AND AROUND 20KTS IN THE AFTN
SO DO EXPECT SOME BREEZY NORTH WINDS AT TIMES ESPECIALLY FOR THE
FIRST PART OF THE DAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE STILL LOOKING
SEASONAL WITH HIGHS AVERAGING IN THE MID 60S.
BOTH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHTS LOOK TO BE THE COLDEST OF THE
EXTENDED PERIODS. SFC DPS DROP TO THE LOW/MID 30S AND LOW TEMPS IN
THE 30S ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. WIND SPEEDS BE LIGHTER TUESDAY NIGHT VS MONDAY NIGHT
UNDER INFLUENCE OF SURFACE RIDGE AND FROST DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR.
SINCE THE LOWER TEMPS WILL MATERIALIZE IN AREAS WHICH ALREADY
FROZE...WILL NOT INCLUDE FROST MENTION IN GRIDS/HWO ATTM.
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL SEE THE UPPER RIDGE DEAMPLIFY AS IT
MIGRATES ONTO THE PLAINS DUE TO ENERGY TRANSLATING FM THE PACIFIC NW
ACROSS THE US/CANADIAN BORDER. AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...TEMPS WILL MAKE A RUN NEAR OR INTO THE 70S ON WEDNESDAY.
THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTH EARLY THURSDAY...WITH OVERALL
COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT NEGLIGIBLE AND TEMPS GRADUALLY RETURN
CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS. THE NORTHERN CONUS SYSTEM DEEPENS IN
ONTARIO FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WORWEEK WITH FLOW ACROSS THE
PLAINS TRANSITIONING MORE NORTHWESTERLY FOR A TIME. THERE ARE SOME
MODEL DIFFERENCES IN HANDLING THIS TROUGH AS WELL AS THE WESTERN
RIDGE AND DID NOT DEVIATE FROM EXTENDED INIT. FOR THE MOST PART THE
WEEKEND IS LOOKING MAINLY DRY ALTHOUGH MODELS HINT AS SOME LIGHT
PCPN DEVELOPMENT ON SUNDAY BUT THIS IS NOT CLEAR CUT. MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS AND FAIRLY SEASONAL TEMPS STILL LOOK REASONABLE FOR THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014
ACTIVE FORECAST PERIOD FOR GRAND ISLAND AND KEARNEY WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT LATE THIS EVENING AND STRONG
WINDS THEREAFTER. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WE ARE SEE ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MIGRATE SLOWLY NORTHEAST TOWARD KGRI/KEAR. VERY
DRY LOW LEVEL AIR IN PLACE SEEMS TO HAVE LIMITED ITS PROGRESSION
BUT HRRR AND OTHER SHORT TERM MODELS POINT TOWARD THIS AREA OF
VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAKING ACROSS THE KGRI/KEAR AREA. STEADY
STREAM OF LIGHTNING STRIKES SOUTHEAST OF HOLDREGE...KEEPS THE
INCLUDE OF A THUNDERSTORM IN THE VICINITY OF THE AIRPORTS IN THE
TAF. LATE IN THE EVENING...NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE WITH THE
INITIAL FRONT PASSAGE...AND AS A BIG UPPER LEVEL LOW DEEPENS TO
THE SOUTHEAST TOWARD DAWN...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILLS STRENGTHEN AND
GUST TO NEAR 35 KTS BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WIND WILL BE THE MAIN
STORY MONDAY. FORTUNATELY...LACKING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP
CEILINGS HIGH...USUALLY 8-12K...AND VISIBILITIES FROM GOING TOO
LOW.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR NEZ039>041-
046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.
KS...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR KSZ005>007-
017>019.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...NOAA/NWS/MORITZ
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...NOAA/NWS/MORITZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1226 PM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014
MAP ANALYSIS INDICATES UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING EXISTS FROM THE
CENTRAL CONUS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA...AND A TROUGH IS NOTED
DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS. ENHANCED UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW EXTENDS FROM THE PACIFIC INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
CONUS. UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA REMAINS WEAK...ONLY
MAXING OUT AT AROUND 30KTS NEAR 28000FT AGL PER 00Z SOUNDING DATA
FROM KLBF AND KOAX. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS THE
AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AND TROUGH...AS WELL AS ENHANCED UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AHEAD OF THE
NORTHWESTERN CONUS TROUGH. AT THE SURFACE AN AREA LOW BAROMETRIC
PRESSURE EXISTS OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND AS A
RESULT...THE BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND FIELD ACROSS OUR AREA REMAINS
FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST.
GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC ALL SUGGEST THE
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH...CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CONUS...WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES EAST THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS BY 00Z THIS EVENING...AND WILL LIKELY
NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY 12Z MONDAY. IN ADDITION...THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT A CLOSED CIRCULATION WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS NEAR 700MB. AT THE
SURFACE...THE AREA OF LOW BAROMETRIC PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST...ALONG WITH THE UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH...AND ACTUALLY WEAKEN AS A STRONGER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ALL OF THIS
SHOULD ALLOW A WEAK BOUNDARY-LAYER BAROCLINIC ZONE TO CLEAR OUR
AREA THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...WITH A NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY
BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND FIELD EXPECTED ACROSS OUR ENTIRE CWA BY 06Z
TONIGHT.
INCREASING UPPER TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL ADVECTION WILL BE REALIZED
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
ACROSS OUR AREA. IN FACT...QPF FIELDS FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL
GFS...EC AND SREF-MEAN ALL SUGGEST PRECIPITATION COULD BE REALIZED
ACROSS OUR FAR WESTERN CWA AS EARLY AS LATE THIS MORNING...WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THEN INCREASING HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. GIVEN ALL THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH ~20% POPS ACROSS OUR
WESTERN CWA STARTING AT 15Z...BUT QUICKLY RAMPED POPS UP TO 50%
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA HEADING INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL THEN DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE CWA TONIGHT AS THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH AXIS CLEARS THE
AREA AND THERMAL ADVECTION DECREASES. WENT AHEAD AND TAPERED POPS
OFF ACROSS OUR WEST 00-12Z TONIGHT. A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT STORY
COULD UNFOLD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN ONE-QUARTER OF OUR CWA
HOWEVER. A ZONE OF DEFORMATION WILL MORE THAN LIKELY DEVELOP JUST
NORTHWEST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED CIRCULATION NEAR 700MB.
ALTHOUGH THE NAM SUGGESTS A BAND OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION WILL BE
REALIZED JUST SOUTHEAST OF OUR CWA...THE OPERATIONAL GFS...EC AND
SREF-MEAN ALL SUGGEST THIS BAND WILL BE REALIZED AS FAR NORTHWEST
AS OUR SOUTHEASTERN CWA TONIGHT AND AS A RESULT...WENT AHEAD WITH
60-70% POPS ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SOUTHEASTERN ONE-QUARTER OF THE
CWA 00-12Z TONIGHT.
BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE DOES NOT APPEAR IT WILL BE OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE TODAY AS SURFACE DEW POINT READINGS REMAIN IN THE 40S
FOR THE MOST PART. BUT UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES IN THE
VICINITY OF THE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF OCCASIONAL
LIGHTNING PRODUCTION...EVIDENT BY PERIODIC LIGHTNING STRIKES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH
POTENTIAL ENERGY VALUES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED
100-200J/KG...DID GO AHEAD WITH ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION ACROSS
THE ENTIRE CWA FOR TODAY.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ARE MAINLY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY
MONDAY MORNING...BUT EXPECT THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS THAT
LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT FOR MONDAY
MORNING AS WELL. THE WINDS AT 850MB ARE AROUND 50 KNOTS IN THE
MORNING BUT DIMINISH EVEN BY MID DAY WHEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENS. EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
FOR THE PERIOD MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA AS A SURFACE HIGH MOVES THROUGH. WITH
SUNSHINE AND WARM ADVECTION EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP INTO
THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S FOR HIGHS. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DESPITE THIS COLD
FRONT...TEMPERATURES THURSDAY SHOULD REMAIN WARM. A COOLER SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SETTLES INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
KEEPING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014
ACTIVE FORECAST PERIOD FOR GRAND ISLAND AND KEARNEY WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT LATE THIS EVENING AND STRONG
WINDS THEREAFTER. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WE ARE SEE ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MIGRATE SLOWLY NORTHEAST TOWARD KGRI/KEAR. VERY
DRY LOW LEVEL AIR IN PLACE SEEMS TO HAVE LIMITED ITS PROGRESSION
BUT HRRR AND OTHER SHORT TERM MODELS POINT TOWARD THIS AREA OF
VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAKING ACROSS THE KGRI/KEAR AREA. STEADY
STREAM OF LIGHTNING STRIKES SOUTHEAST OF HOLDREGE...KEEPS THE
INCLUDE OF A THUNDERSTORM IN THE VICINITY OF THE AIRPORTS IN THE
TAF. LATE IN THE EVENING...NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE WITH THE
INITIAL FRONT PASSAGE...AND AS A BIG UPPER LEVEL LOW DEEPENS TO
THE SOUTHEAST TOWARD DAWN...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILLS STRENGTHEN AND
GUST TO NEAR 35 KTS BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WIND WILL BE THE MAIN
STORY MONDAY. FORTUNATELY...LACKING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP
CEILINGS HIGH...USUALLY 8-12K...AND VISIBILITIES FROM GOING TOO
LOW.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BRYANT
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...NOAA/NWS/MORITZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
319 PM EDT SUN OCT 12 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW YORK STATE WILL SLIDE EAST OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT. A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF WARMER AND INCREASINGLY
MOIST AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION MONDAY AND LAST THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. THE SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BRING MUCH MILDER WEATHER FOR THE REGION ESPECIALLY BY
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING 70 DEGREES IN
MANY LOCATIONS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION WEDNESDAY
WITH A CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE TEMPERATURES COOL DOWN LATER THIS WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A RARE SIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL NEW
YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...COMPLETELY CLEAR SKIES. EVEN
WITH BRIGHT SUNSHINE...MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES STILL WERE A LITTLE
BELOW NORMAL WITH 50S DOMINATE. THE VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE
LOWER CLOUD SHIELD ACRS SRN OHIO...SW PA AND ACRS VA TO THE
DELMARVA. LATEST RAP AND NAM SHOWS THAT THE 850 MB RH FIELDS
CORRELATE WELL WITH THE NRN EDGE OF THIS CLD SHIELD TO THE S. WITH
A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER NY PROJECTED
TO SLIDE OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST BY 12Z MON...A SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP. THIS SRLY FLOW WILL ADVECT THIS CLD
SHIELD NORTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT AND EVENTUALLY SPREAD ACRS ALL OF C
NY AND NE PA BTWN ABT MIDNIGHT AND 8 AM MON AS PER LATEST RAP 850
MB RH FIELDS. ADDNTLY...WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
BEGIN OVERNIGHT AND LAST THRU MONDAY. BUT THIS OCCURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL
HGHTS RISE INDICATING THAT THE ISENTROPES ARE DESCENDING WITH THE
WAA. THUS SOME OF THE ISEN LIFT WILL BE CANCELLED LATE TONIGHT
THRU MONDAY. HENCE WE DON/T SEE A LOT OF PRECIP. AFTER
COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING WFOS DECIDED ON SLGHT TO CHC POPS
WITH THIS FIRST WAA WAVE THRU MON PM. HENCE INTRODUCE SLGHT CHC TO
CHC POPS BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THRU MONDAY FOR
-SHRA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE REBOUND WITH MAXES REACHING
WELL INTO THE 60S...AND POSSIBLY 70F IN THE UPPER FINGER LAKES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FIRST WAA/ISEN LIFT SURGE PASSES BY MON PM WITH A FEW SHRA. THEN
OVERNIGHT MON TO TUE...ALL 4 SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS INDICATE
INCREASING LL MOISTURE AND A SRLY FLOW AND WHAT LOOKS LIKE
DRIZZLE OR JUST A FEW LIGHT SHRA IN THE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF NE PA
AND SC NY/CATSKILLS. THUS HAVE SLGHT CHC-CHC POPS IN THESE AREAS
AND NO POPS FARTHER N TO THE LAKE ONTARIO PLAIN TO UPPER MOHAWK
VALLEY.
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...SRLY FLOW INCREASES AREA WIDE WITH INCREASING MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTO NY AND PA. THERE ARE UNCERTAINTIES AS TO THE TIMING
OF THE ARRIVAL OF THE MAIN FRNTL BAND OF SHRA WITH THE PROGRESSION
OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW EASTWARD. ALL SYNOPTIC MODELS INDICATE THAT
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW REACHES THE WRN OHIO VALLEY 12Z WED. BUT THE
STRGEST PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ASSCTD LL FLOW AND MOISTURE
TRANSPORT VARIES IN PLACEMENT DEPENDING ON MODEL. THE CMC IS
FASTEST WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE OVER NY AND PA BY 12Z WED. THE
EURO IS THE SLOWEST WITH HARDLY ANY PRECIP OR MOISTURE REACHING
NE PA OR C NY BY 12Z WED. THE GFS AND NAM ARE IN BTWN. SO I HAVE
BROADENED POPS ACRS CWA TUE NGT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTIES
AND LEAVE THEM IN THE SLGHT CHC TO CHC RANGE.
FOR WEDNESDAY...MODELS AGAIN VARY ON HOW QUICKLY THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW MOVES TO THE EAST BUT ALL INDICATE PRECIP OVER NY AND PA SO
HAVE LIKELY POPS...ESP BY WED AFTERNOON. GFS AND NAM INDICATE SOME
INSTABILITY AS WELL AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT ABV THE WARM AND
FAIRLY MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE. SO WE CONTINUE MENTION OF SOME
TSRA FOR WED IN GRIDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
315 PM EDT UPDATE...
FOLLOWED CLOSELY TO WPC GUIDANCE AND MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD CONTINUES TO LOOK
UNSETTLED. THE PORTENT UPPR LVL LOW THAT IS STARTING TO DIG SOUTH
ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE ROCKIES WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTH
AND AMPLIFY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST
AND BECOME CLOSED IN NATURE BY TUESDAY EVENING. THIS LOW WILL BE
THE CULPRIT FOR THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING INTO THE REGION IN ITS WAKE
SATURDAY MORNING RESULTING IN THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THUS KEEP AT LEAST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH
THE WHOLE PERIOD.
TEMPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME WILL BE AT OR ABOVE THE SEASONAL
NORM.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
IS IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER. WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT
TODAY UNDER 6 KNOTS AND MAY BE VARIABLE AT TIMES.
A WARM FRONT WILL START TO APPROACH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL RESULT IN THE INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT CIGS TO REMAIN MOSTLY VFR. THIS
FRONT WILL ALSO BRING THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. SOME
EMBEDDED MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE SHOWERS AND EVEN IFR.
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LACKING ON THE IFR CIGS SO DECIDED TO KEEP OUT
OF TAFS. DO NOT THINK FOG WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AS WINDS ARE FAIRLY
BREEZY RIGHT OFF THE SFC AND TEMPS JUST ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FALL
AS MUCH AS THEY DID LAST NIGHT.
WINDS BEHIND THE WARM FROPA ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY AND
RANGE FROM 6-12 KNOTS ACROSS THE REGION.
OUTLOOK...
MON TO TUE...DEEP SRLY FLOW AHEAD OF CNTRL U.S. TROF...RESULTING
IN PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS DUE TO CIGS/SHRA/BR.
TUE NGT TO THURS...STEADY RAIN...RESULTING IN MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR
CONDITIONS.
FRIDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...KAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
305 PM EDT SUN OCT 12 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW YORK STATE WILL SLIDE EAST OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT. A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF WARMER AND INCREASINGLY
MOIST AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION MONDAY AND LAST THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. THE SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BRING MUCH MILDER WEATHER FOR THE REGION ESPECIALLY BY
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING 70 DEGREES IN
MANY LOCATIONS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION WEDNESDAY
WITH A CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE TEMPERATURES COOL DOWN LATER THIS WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A RARE SIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL NEW
YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...COMPLETELY CLEAR SKIES. EVEN
WITH BRIGHT SUNSHINE...MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES STILL WERE A LITTLE
BELOW NORMAL WITH 50S DOMINATE. THE VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE
LOWER CLOUD SHIELD ACRS SRN OHIO...SW PA AND ACRS VA TO THE
DELMARVA. LATEST RAP AND NAM SHOWS THAT THE 850 MB RH FIELDS
CORRELATE WELL WITH THE NRN EDGE OF THIS CLD SHIELD TO THE S. WITH
A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER NY PROJECTED
TO SLIDE OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST BY 12Z MON...A SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP. THIS SRLY FLOW WILL ADVECT THIS CLD
SHIELD NORTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT AND EVENTUALLY SPREAD ACRS ALL OF C
NY AND NE PA BTWN ABT MIDNIGHT AND 8 AM MON AS PER LATEST RAP 850
MB RH FIELDS. ADDNTLY...WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
BEGIN OVERNIGHT AND LAST THRU MONDAY. BUT THIS OCCURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL
HGHTS RISE INDICATING THAT THE ISENTROPES ARE DESCENDING WITH THE
WAA. THUS SOME OF THE ISEN LIFT WILL BE CANCELLED LATE TONIGHT
THRU MONDAY. HENCE WE DON/T SEE A LOT OF PRECIP. AFTER
COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING WFOS DECIDED ON SLGHT TO CHC POPS
WITH THIS FIRST WAA WAVE THRU MON PM. HENCE INTRODUCE SLGHT CHC TO
CHC POPS BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THRU MONDAY FOR
-SHRA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE REBOUND WITH MAXES REACHING
WELL INTO THE 60S...AND POSSIBLY 70F IN THE UPPER FINGER LAKES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FIRST WAA/ISEN LIFT SURGE PASSES BY MON PM WITH A FEW SHRA. THEN
OVERNIGHT MON TO TUE...ALL 4 SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS INDICATE
INCREASIUNG LL MOISTURE AND A SRLY FLOW AND WHAT LOOKS LIKE
DRIZZLE OR JUST A FEW LIGHT SHRA IN THE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF NE PA
AND SC NY/CATSKILLS. THUS HAVE SLGHT CHC-CHC POPS IN THESE AREAS
AND NO POPS FARTHER N TO THE LAKE ONTARIO PLAIN TO UPPER MOHAWK
VALLEY.
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...SRLY FLOW INCREASES AREA WIDE WITH INCREASING MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTO NY AND PA. THERE ARE UNCERTAINTIES AS TO THE TIMING
OF THE ARRIVAL OF THE MAIN FRNTL BAND OF SHRA WITH THE PROGRESSION
OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW EASTWARD. ALL SYNOPTIC MODELS INDICATE THAT
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW REACHES THE WRN OHIO VALLEY 12Z WED. BUT THE
STRGEST PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ASSCTD LL FLOW AND MOISTURE
TRANSPORT VARIES IN PLACEMENT DEPENDING ON MODEL. THE CMC IS
FASTEST WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE OVER NY AND PA BY 12Z WED. THE
EURO IS THE SLOWEST WITH HARDLY ANY PRECIP OR MOISTURE REACHING
NE PA OR C NY BY 12Z WED. THE GFS AND NAM ARE IN BTWN. SO I HAVE
BROADENED POPS ACRS CWA TUE NGT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTIES
AND LEAVE THEM IN THE SLGHT CHC TO CHC RANGE.
FOR WEDNESDAY...MODELS AGAIN VARY ON HOW QUICKLY THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW MOVES TO THE EAST BUT ALL INDICATE PRECIP OVER NY AND PA SO
HAVE LIKELY POPS...ESP BY WED AFTERNOON. GFS AND NAM INDICATE SOME
INSTABILITY AS WELL AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT ABV THE WARM AND
FAIRLY MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE. SO WE CONTINUE MENTION OF SOME
TSRA FOR WED IN GRIDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
300 PM EDT UPDATE...
FOLLOWED CLOSELY TO WPC GUIDANCE. LOOKS LIKE THE EXTENDED FORECAST
WILL BE A WET ONE. A CLOSED LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WHOLE FORECAST. THE
CHANCE FOR A SOAKING RAIN DURING THIS PERIOD CONTINUES AND WILL
CLOSELY MONITOR THE SITUATION AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES. TEMPS
DURING THIS TIME FRAME WILL BE CLOSE TO THE SEASONAL NORM WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING TO THE UPPR 50S TO 60S EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL INTO THE 40S EACH MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
IS IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER. WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT
TODAY UNDER 6 KNOTS AND MAY BE VARIABLE AT TIMES.
A WARM FRONT WILL START TO APPROACH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL RESULT IN THE INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT CIGS TO REMAIN MOSTLY VFR. THIS
FRONT WILL ALSO BRING THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. SOME
EMBEDDED MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE SHOWERS AND EVEN IFR.
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LACKING ON THE IFR CIGS SO DECIDED TO KEEP OUT
OF TAFS. DO NOT THINK FOG WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AS WINDS ARE FAIRLY
BREEZY RIGHT OFF THE SFC AND TEMPS JUST ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FALL
AS MUCH AS THEY DID LAST NIGHT.
WINDS BEHIND THE WARM FROPA ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY AND
RANGE FROM 6-12 KNOTS ACROSS THE REGION.
OUTLOOK...
MON TO TUE...DEEP SRLY FLOW AHEAD OF CNTRL U.S. TROF...RESULTING
IN PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS DUE TO CIGS/SHRA/BR.
TUE NGT TO THURS...STEADY RAIN...RESULTING IN MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR
CONDITIONS.
FRIDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...KAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
647 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014
GFS 300 MB RH SHOWING THE CURRENT EDGE OF HIGH CLOUDS WELL FROM
WAHPETON TO BAUDETTE. IT PUSHES THE HIGH CLOUDS EAST OVERNIGHT
LEAVING THE FCST AREA WITH A CLEAR SKY. ISSUE OF FOG WAS BROUGHT
UP BY DAY SHIFT. LATEST HRRR INDICATES BEST CHC OF GROUND FOG IN
THE BOGS/LAKES REGION OF MINNESOTA SUCH AS BEMIDJI-WASKISH. BUT
COULD CERTAINLY SEE PATCHY GROUND FOG OTHER AREAS BUT LESS
COVERAGE. WILL LEAVE PATCHY FOG CWA WIDE AS IS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014
THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY. MODELS
ARE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT...AND NO PREFERENCE THIS AFTERNOON.
FOR TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION AND IT
SHOULD BE CLEAR. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG IN ALL
AREAS AFTER 5Z...GIVEN SOME RAIN IN THE PAST 24HR AND DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOW/MID 40S THIS AFTERNOON. WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE THREAT
FOR DENSE FOG AS WELL GIVEN THE FAIRLY HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER
DEWPOINTS/MOISTURE.
ON TUESDAY...IT WILL BE A CHAMBER OF COMMERCE DAY WITH FAIRLY
LIGHT WINDS...NEARLY FULL SUNSHINE AND TEMPS INTO THE LOW/MID 60S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014
FOR WED...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AND IT SHOULD BE
BREEZY/WINDY BY AFTERNOON FROM THE VALLEY WEST. TEMPS WILL ONCE
AGAIN WARM INTO THE LOW/MID 60S...PERHAPS NEAR 70 IN THE WEST WITH
VERY WARM AIR ALOFT. IT WILL REMAIN DRY WITH NEARLY FULL SUNSHINE
ONCE AGAIN.
ON THURSDAY...SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS NEAR WINNIPEG AND A COOL
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SWITCHING WINDS TO THE WEST BY AFTERNOON.
EVEN WITH THE COOLER AIR ALOFT MOVING IN...TEMPS WILL WARM INTO
THE 60S WITH FAVORABLE WARM WESTERLY WINDS. FOR NOT WILL KEEP IT
DRY ALTHOUGH THERE SHOULD BE SOME MORE CLOUDS AROUND.
FOR THU NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WILL START OFF WITH A BROAD 500MB LOW
NEAR THE FA THAT WILL TRACK SLOWLY EASTWARD THRU FRI NIGHT. THE 12Z
OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE IN REGARD TO THE
CORRESPONDING SFC LOW PLACEMENT SO THE PCPN FIELDS DO NOT SHOW MUCH
AGREEMENT EITHER. THEREFORE HAVE KEPT MOST OF THE FA IN A CHANCE FOR
SOME LIGHT PCPN THU NIGHT THRU FRIDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH THE BETTER
CHANCES MAY BE ACROSS NORTHWEST MN. RIDGING SLOWLY RETURNS BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPS FOR LATE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014
HIGH CLOUDS BEMIDJI-WAHPETON AREAS WILL MOVE EAST THIS EVENING.
CLEAR SKY ALL AREAS OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND
TONIGHT SHIFTING SOUTHERLY TUESDAY AFTN IN ERN ND/RRV. KEPT 18Z
TAF FCST IN REGARDS TO FOG POSSIBILITIES AS IS. CONFIDENCE IS A
BIT HIGHER IN BEMIDJI AND LESS SO OTHER PLACES. EXPECT IT TO BE A
GROUND FOG SITUATION WHICH IS USUALLY QUITE DIFFICULT TO PREDICT
EXTENT AT ANY ONE SITE.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...GODON/DK
AVIATION...RIDDLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1210 PM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014
NO MAJOR UPDATES ARE REQUIRED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE SLOWLY
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE STATE AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE.
FRESHENED UP PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 921 AM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS BEGINNING TO PIVOT INTO WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. THIS FEATURE IS SPARKING ELEVATED SCATTERED/NUMEROUS
RAIN SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHWESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO
CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY AS THE
UPPER TROUGH SWINGS EAST. ONLY UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCREASE
THE CLOUD COVER SOUTH FOR TODAY. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINING
FORECAST ELEMENTS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE
BEEN SENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014
DID ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH CENTRAL TODAY AS SPORADIC LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN
ASSOCIATED WITH THE RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA THROUGH
THE NIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014
THE MAIN IMPACT IN THE SHORT TERM IS RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN ACROSS CENTRAL MONTANA
AND WYOMING. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SOUTHWESTERN
MANITOBA...AND ON DOWN THROUGH THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. THESE FEATURES
WILL PROVIDE AMPLE ASCENT AND FOCUS FOR RAIN SHOWER DEVELOPMENT.
AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW MOVE FURTHER
EAST...RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF SOUTH DAKOTA
AND SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. THE MODELS (00 UTC ECMWF/GFS/NAM) HAVE
THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION CENTERED OVER NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA. HOWEVER...THEY STILL BRING OVER A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN
INTO NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94. THE RAP HAS HAD A GOOD
HANDLE ON THE ONGOING PRECIPITATION ACROSS MONTANA AND HAS
PRECIPITATION CONTINUING TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA AND
ENTERING WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AROUND 6 AM CDT.
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL BE COOLER THAN TODAY...WITH READINGS IN
THE 50S AND LOW 60S. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STEEPENS BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 30 MPH ARE LIKELY.
WINDS SHOULD DIE DOWN AFTER SUNSET AND RAIN SHOULD COME TO AN END
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST SHORTLY THEREAFTER.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY HIGHLIGHT THE
EXTENDED FORECAST.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO PROPAGATE INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. NAEFS 850-700 MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB
INTO THE THE 97TH-99TH PERCENTILES BY WEDNESDAY IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THIS RIDGE. THUS...A MILD DAY TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S IS FORECAST TO BE FOLLOWED BY WIDESPREAD
HIGHS IN THE 70S ON WEDNESDAY. THIS FOLLOWS THE WARMER EDGE OF THE
00 UTC GUIDANCE SUITE WHICH HAS VERIFIED BEST OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS. THEREAFTER...A SHORTWAVE COMING ON SHORE TO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE
THURSDAY...WITH A DEEPENING EASTERN CONUS TROUGH...PLACING THE
NORTHERN PLAINS UNDER CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE
END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS FAVORS A RETURN TO TEMPERATURES NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014
VFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...TM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
921 AM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 921 AM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS BEGINNING TO PIVOT INTO WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. THIS FEATURE IS SPARKING ELEVATED SCATTERED/NUMEROUS
RAIN SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHWESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO
CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY AS THE
UPPER TROUGH SWINGS EAST. ONLY UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCREASE
THE CLOUD COVER SOUTH FOR TODAY. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINING
FORECAST ELEMENTS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE
BEEN SENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014
DID ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH CENTRAL TODAY AS SPORADIC LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN
ASSOCIATED WITH THE RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA THROUGH
THE NIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014
THE MAIN IMPACT IN THE SHORT TERM IS RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN ACROSS CENTRAL MONTANA
AND WYOMING. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SOUTHWESTERN
MANITOBA...AND ON DOWN THROUGH THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. THESE FEATURES
WILL PROVIDE AMPLE ASCENT AND FOCUS FOR RAIN SHOWER DEVELOPMENT.
AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW MOVE FURTHER
EAST...RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF SOUTH DAKOTA
AND SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. THE MODELS (00 UTC ECMWF/GFS/NAM) HAVE
THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION CENTERED OVER NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA. HOWEVER...THEY STILL BRING OVER A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN
INTO NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94. THE RAP HAS HAD A GOOD
HANDLE ON THE ONGOING PRECIPITATION ACROSS MONTANA AND HAS
PRECIPITATION CONTINUING TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA AND
ENTERING WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AROUND 6 AM CDT.
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL BE COOLER THAN TODAY...WITH READINGS IN
THE 50S AND LOW 60S. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STEEPENS BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 30 MPH ARE LIKELY.
WINDS SHOULD DIE DOWN AFTER SUNSET AND RAIN SHOULD COME TO AN END
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST SHORTLY THEREAFTER.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY HIGHLIGHT THE
EXTENDED FORECAST.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO PROPAGATE INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. NAEFS 850-700 MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB
INTO THE THE 97TH-99TH PERCENTILES BY WEDNESDAY IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THIS RIDGE. THUS...A MILD DAY TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S IS FORECAST TO BE FOLLOWED BY WIDESPREAD
HIGHS IN THE 70S ON WEDNESDAY. THIS FOLLOWS THE WARMER EDGE OF THE
00 UTC GUIDANCE SUITE WHICH HAS VERIFIED BEST OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS. THEREAFTER...A SHORTWAVE COMING ON SHORE TO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE
THURSDAY...WITH A DEEPENING EASTERN CONUS TROUGH...PLACING THE
NORTHERN PLAINS UNDER CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE
END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS FAVORS A RETURN TO TEMPERATURES NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014
RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING...BECOMING FOCUSED ACROSS THE
SOUTH CENTRAL AND EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. MVFR
CONDITIONS IN RAIN ARE EXPECTED. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING
TO 25-30 KTS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
644 AM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014
DID ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH CENTRAL TODAY AS SPORADIC LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN
ASSOCIATED WITH THE RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA THROUGH
THE NIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014
THE MAIN IMPACT IN THE SHORT TERM IS RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN ACROSS CENTRAL MONTANA
AND WYOMING. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SOUTHWESTERN
MANITOBA...AND ON DOWN THROUGH THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. THESE FEATURES
WILL PROVIDE AMPLE ASCENT AND FOCUS FOR RAIN SHOWER DEVELOPMENT.
AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW MOVE FURTHER
EAST...RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF SOUTH DAKOTA
AND SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. THE MODELS (00 UTC ECMWF/GFS/NAM) HAVE
THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION CENTERED OVER NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA. HOWEVER...THEY STILL BRING OVER A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN
INTO NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94. THE RAP HAS HAD A GOOD
HANDLE ON THE ONGOING PRECIPITATION ACROSS MONTANA AND HAS
PRECIPITATION CONTINUING TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA AND
ENTERING WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AROUND 6 AM CDT.
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL BE COOLER THAN TODAY...WITH READINGS IN
THE 50S AND LOW 60S. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STEEPENS BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 30 MPH ARE LIKELY.
WINDS SHOULD DIE DOWN AFTER SUNSET AND RAIN SHOULD COME TO AN END
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST SHORTLY THEREAFTER.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY HIGHLIGHT THE
EXTENDED FORECAST.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO PROPAGATE INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. NAEFS 850-700 MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB
INTO THE THE 97TH-99TH PERCENTILES BY WEDNESDAY IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THIS RIDGE. THUS...A MILD DAY TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S IS FORECAST TO BE FOLLOWED BY WIDESPREAD
HIGHS IN THE 70S ON WEDNESDAY. THIS FOLLOWS THE WARMER EDGE OF THE
00 UTC GUIDANCE SUITE WHICH HAS VERIFIED BEST OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS. THEREAFTER...A SHORTWAVE COMING ON SHORE TO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE
THURSDAY...WITH A DEEPENING EASTERN CONUS TROUGH...PLACING THE
NORTHERN PLAINS UNDER CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE
END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS FAVORS A RETURN TO TEMPERATURES NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014
RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING...BECOMING FOCUSED ACROSS THE
SOUTH CENTRAL AND EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. MVFR
CONDITIONS IN RAIN ARE EXPECTED. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING
TO 25-30 KTS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
306 AM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014
THE MAIN IMPACT IN THE SHORT TERM IS RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN ACROSS CENTRAL MONTANA
AND WYOMING. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SOUTHWESTERN
MANITOBA...AND ON DOWN THROUGH THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. THESE FEATURES
WILL PROVIDE AMPLE ASCENT AND FOCUS FOR RAIN SHOWER DEVELOPMENT.
AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW MOVE FURTHER
EAST...RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF SOUTH DAKOTA
AND SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. THE MODELS (00 UTC ECMWF/GFS/NAM) HAVE
THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION CENTERED OVER NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA. HOWEVER...THEY STILL BRING OVER A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN
INTO NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94. THE RAP HAS HAD A GOOD
HANDLE ON THE ONGOING PRECIPITATION ACROSS MONTANA AND HAS
PRECIPITATION CONTINUING TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA AND
ENTERING WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AROUND 6 AM CDT.
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL BE COOLER THAN TODAY...WITH READINGS IN
THE 50S AND LOW 60S. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STEEPENS BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 30 MPH ARE LIKELY.
WINDS SHOULD DIE DOWN AFTER SUNSET AND RAIN SHOULD COME TO AN END
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST SHORTLY THEREAFTER.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY HIGHLIGHT THE
EXTENDED FORECAST.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO PROPAGATE INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. NAEFS 850-700 MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB
INTO THE THE 97TH-99TH PERCENTILES BY WEDNESDAY IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THIS RIDGE. THUS...A MILD DAY TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S IS FORECAST TO BE FOLLOWED BY WIDESPREAD
HIGHS IN THE 70S ON WEDNESDAY. THIS FOLLOWS THE WARMER EDGE OF THE
00 UTC GUIDANCE SUITE WHICH HAS VERIFIED BEST OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS. THEREAFTER...A SHORTWAVE COMING ON SHORE TO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE
THURSDAY...WITH A DEEPENING EASTERN CONUS TROUGH...PLACING THE
NORTHERN PLAINS UNDER CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE
END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS FAVORS A RETURN TO TEMPERATURES NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1213 AM CDT SAT OCT 11 2014
VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES. RAIN SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS
MORNING AND PUSH EAST. SHOWERS PRESENTLY OVER KJMS WILL BE
SHORT-LIVED. DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE KDIK-KBIS-KJMS CORRIDOR LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1214 AM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1213 AM CDT SAT OCT 11 2014
MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS UPDATE WAS PRECIPITATION ACROSS WESTERN AND
EAST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
A PREFERENTIAL TROUGH ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WAS PROVIDING
ENOUGH ASCENT FOR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TO FORM.
THEREFORE...INCREASED RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE EAST THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.
THE MAIN SHOW IS STILL OUT ACROSS MONTANA AND WILL MAKE ITS WAY
INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE RAP APPEARS TO
HAVE A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT SETUP AND HAS PRECIPITATION
CONTINUING TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA AND ENTERING WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA AROUND 6 AM CDT. THE MOST WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIEST
RAIN SHOULD REMAIN ALONG THE NORTH DAKOTA/SOUTH DAKOTA BOARDER
JUST NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 924 PM CDT SAT OCT 11 2014
BAND OF SHOWERS MOVING ALONG THE COLD FRONT INTO NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA AT THIS TIME. SEEING SOME MILDLY GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT (15 TO 25 MPH) SO RAISED THE POST FRONTAL
WINDS A BIT WEST TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...WILL FOLLOW THE SHOWERS
SLOWLY EAST TONIGHT WITH THE FRONT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 642 PM CDT SAT OCT 11 2014
A BROAD SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ACROSS
EASTERN MONTANA WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT AND BE THE FOCUS FOR
DEVELOPING SHOWERS. MADE SOME MODEST ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS LATER
TONIGHT IN COORDINATION WITH GRAND FORKS DELAYING THE ARRIVAL OF
LOW POPS ACROSS THE EAST A FEW HOURS. LOW SURFACE DEW POINTS SHOULD
RESULT IN A FEW HOURS OF VIRGA INSTEAD OF SHOWERS TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE UPDATED CURRENT SKY CONDITION BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE
OBS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT SAT OCT 11 2014
WARM SECTOR FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS...SUSTAINED 25
MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS SOUTH
INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. COLD FRONT NOW BEGINNING TO EMERGE
FROM SOUTHERN ALBERTA AND SOUTHWEST SASKATCHEWAN WILL SHIFT INTO
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z SUNDAY. LATEST WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SUPPORTING THE AFOREMENTIONED
COLD FRONT IS NOW SLIDING INTO NORTHERN IDAHO. THIS WILL UNDERGO
DEEPENING WITH THE HEIGHT FIELDS SHARPENING UP AS A 140KT 300MB
JET STREAK OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DIVES INTO THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH OVERNIGHT. IN DOING SO...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BUCKLE
MORE TO A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...BECOMING PARALLEL WITH THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT...RESULTING IN A SLOWER MOVEMENT ONCE IT GETS INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY 12Z SUNDAY. STRONGEST OMEGA/VERTICAL
MOTION FIELD IS MORE OR LESS CONFINED TO WESTERN/SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA OVERNIGHT...THEN SHIFTING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA SUNDAY MORNING...TRANSITIONING TO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. HENCE...THE HIGHEST POPS...LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL...CAN BE EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING OVER SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...THEN INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
AS FAR AS THE TIMING OF SHOWERS...THE GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONG THE
FORECAST GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE HIGHER RESOLUTION/HRRR MODEL WAS
TO MAINTAIN PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
BEGINNING IN THE WEST BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z SUNDAY...THEN SPREADING
INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATER TONIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. CONCUR
WITH THIS IDEA GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE VERTICAL MOTION FIELD
MENTIONED ABOVE IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE LOCATION OF THE UPPER
TROUGH/SURFACE COLD FRONT. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BEFORE TAPERING OFF SUNDAY
NIGHT. MUCH COOLER SUNDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S...AND AROUND 60 IN THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL WHERE LESS
PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT SAT OCT 11 2014
UPPER TROUGH DEPARTS BY 12Z MONDAY AND IS EVENTUALLY REPLACED BY AN
UPPER RIDGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE RIDGE WILL TRANSITION FROM THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES MONDAY...INTO NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY...AND THEN
SHIFTING EAST WEDNESDAY. THIS SHIFTING OF THE UPPER RIDGE RESULTS
IN A WARMING TREND MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS AFTERNOON HIGHS
WEDNESDAY RISE BACK INTO THE LOWER 70S WEST...WITH 65F TO 70F
ELSEWHERE. THEREAFTER...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH REMAINS ON TRACK TO SLIDE
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...PUSHING A
SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH WHILE THE HEIGHT FIELD IS BRIEFLY
SUPPRESSED. PRECIPITATION CHANCES...ALTHOUGH EVEN MORE LIMITED IN
TODAYS RUN...IS CONFINED TO THE FAR NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. THE WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE
WITH ANOTHER TRANSITORY RIDGE SLIDING ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA
FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY WEAK SHORTWAVE SATURDAY. AGAIN PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED AND FAVOR THE NORTH AND EAST CENTRAL ON
SATURDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1213 AM CDT SAT OCT 11 2014
VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES. RAIN SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS
MORNING AND PUSH EAST. SHOWERS PRESENTLY OVER KJMS WILL BE
SHORT-LIVED. DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE KDIK-KBIS-KJMS CORRIDOR LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
956 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA VERY
SLOWLY ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...LEADING TO COOL AND
DAMP CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
LINE OF CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND KENTUCKY CONTINUES
TO WEAKEN IN INTENSITY, ITS FORWARD SPEED HAS ALSO SLOWED
DOWN...BUT SOME SHOWERS AND MAYBE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER MIGHT WORK
INTO THE CINCY TRI-STATE REGION AND WHITEWATER VALLEY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TIGHTENED UP THE POP GRADIENT ON THE EAST SIDE DRYING OUT THE REGION
EAST OF ABOUT A U.S. 68 LINE.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE MID 60S ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODEL AGREEMENT IS RELATIVELY STRONG ON THE OVERALL TIMING AND
ORIENTATION OF THE WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE AREA ON
TUESDAY...THOUGH THERE ARE STILL SOME TYPICAL DIFFERENCES IN
BOUNDARY LAYER T/TD AND INSTABILITY.
ON TUESDAY MORNING...RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE ILN FORECAST AREA. AT THE DIURNAL
MINIMUM...WIDESPREAD THUNDER IS NOT EXPECTED. OVER THE COURSE OF
THE DAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL VERY SLOWLY MOVE ITS WAY EAST ACROSS
THE CWA. THE FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA UNTIL AFTER SUNSET. AS VERY WEAK INSTABILITY GROWS
DURING THE DAY...ELECTRIFICATION OF THE STRONGEST STORM CORES WILL
BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT CONVECTION MAY BE
LOW-TOPPED...SO THUNDER MAY END UP BEING RATHER ISOLATED. WHAT
WRF-NMM/WRF-ARW MODELS SUGGEST MAY OCCUR IS THAT BANDS OF
CONVECTION RE-FOCUS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA DURING THE
LATE MORNING...PROGRESSING NNE THROUGH AFTERNOON. ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...A BAND OF 100-POPS IS IN THE GRIDS...MOVING EAST
ACROSS THE CWA BETWEEN 12Z AND 03Z. A DRY SLOT BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL LEAD TO A QUICK REDUCTION IN PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL (AND A
COMPLETE END TO ANY CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL). THUS...POPS FOR THE
TUESDAY NIGHT PERIOD ARE VERY LOW...AND MUCH OF THE PERIOD MAY BE
DRY.
THOUGH CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAK AT THE START
OF THE DAY...THERE ARE TWO HAZARDOUS WEATHER CONCERNS AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES.
THE FIRST THREAT IS THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN. LARGE-SCALE
MODELS ARE FORECASTING 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...WHILE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS
(NAM12/SREF/WRF-ARW/WRF-NMM) SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
HIGHER VALUES. THE STREAKY NATURE OF THE QPF FIELDS ON THE 4KM WRF
RUNS SUGGEST THAT LOCAL CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WILL LIKELY END UP
BEING RESPONSIBLE FOR THE HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THE
ORIENTATION OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
PROLONGED RAIN AND TRAINING. MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE WARM SECTOR
AND ALONG THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE VERY IMPRESSIVE FOR OCTOBER
(ADMITTEDLY A RELATIVE MEASURE)...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
OF 1.4-1.7 INCHES...OVER 225 PERCENT OF NORMAL. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST DEEP SATURATION...THOUGH ALLOWING ONLY FOR VERY WEAK
INSTABILITY. THIS MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO RIDE NORTH ON DEEP AND
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW...EXTENDING ON A NEAR-DIRECT PATH FROM
THE GULF TO THE OHIO VALLEY. IN A FAVORABLE AREA FOR
LIFT...FOCUSING ALONG THE FRONT...THIS SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WILL SUPPORT A THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN. THIS WILL BE
ESPECIALLY TRUE IN CONVECTIVE BANDS...WHICH WILL LIKELY SET UP
PARALLEL TO THE FRONT AND MOVE IN A GENERALLY NORTHERLY DIRECTION.
EVEN WITH A COUPLE INCHES OF RAIN...RELATIVELY DRY ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS OVER THE ILN CWA MAY KEEP FLOODING FROM BECOMING TOO
SIGNIFICANT. THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE A
WIDESPREAD 1-2 INCHES WITHOUT MAJOR ISSUES. THE CONCERN IS THAT
TRAINING STORMS COULD SURPASS THAT FORECAST CONSIDERABLY. A
LOCALIZED THREAT FOR FLOODING WILL EXIST...AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MENTIONED IN THE HWO.
THE SECOND THREAT IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER...A THREAT
THAT REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. THERE IS NO QUESTION THAT THERE
WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF WIND ENERGY IN THE ATMOSPHERE.
GFS/NAM FORECASTS BOTH INDICATE THAT A 60 KNOT 850MB SOUTHERLY JET
WILL ENTERING THE REGION EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...SHIFTING EAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN FROM THE SSE...A
DIRECTION THAT IS BACKED SLIGHTLY FROM THE FLOW JUST OFF THE
SURFACE. DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE SUPPORTIVE OF STORM
ORGANIZATION (UP TO 60 KNOTS 0-6KM) AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS
DEFINITELY AT THE HIGH END OF THE SCALE (40-50 KNOTS 0-1KM). IN
THE PRESENCE OF SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY...THESE WIND PROFILES WOULD
BE OF SIGNIFICANT CONCERN. HOWEVER...WEAK INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED
TO BE A LIMITING FACTOR TO THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. THE SATURATED
SOUNDINGS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR LARGE CAPE PROFILES...AND BOUNDARY
LAYER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE ONLY MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE...EVEN ON THE MOST UNSTABLE OF SOUNDINGS. SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY FORECASTS FROM VARIOUS MODELS RANGE FROM NOTHING AT
ALL (GFS/ECMWF) TO SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG (NAM/WRF-ARW)...FOCUSED
PRIMARILY IN THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN CWA BY 18Z.
ALSO...THE NORTH-TO-SOUTH ORIENTATION OF THE FRONT IS ALMOST
COMPLETELY PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHERLY SHEAR. THIS
BLOCKY / MERIDIONAL SETUP IS NOT ONE THAT WOULD SUGGEST A
WIDESPREAD WIND RISK OR A TRADITIONAL FORWARD-PROPAGATING QLCS.
WITH AS MUCH WIND ENERGY AS IS PRESENT...ESPECIALLY JUST OFF THE
SURFACE...IT WOULD NOT BE WISE TO WHOLLY DISCOUNT A SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT. IN FACT...IF MARGINAL INSTABILITY IS ABLE TO DEVELOP...THE
IMPRESSIVE WIND FIELDS MIGHT SUPPORT EMBEDDED SUPERCELLULAR
STRUCTURES WITHIN THE BANDS OF CONVECTION. WHAT IS BEING OBSERVED
OVER ILLINOIS TODAY (MONDAY) HAS A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF OCCURRING
HERE...BUT ONLY IF INSTABILITY REACHES THE HIGHEST END OF THE
FORECAST VALUES. T/TD VALUES OVER ILLINOIS ARE BOTH A FEW DEGREES
HIGHER THAN WHAT IS EXPECTED FOR THE ILN FORECAST AREA TOMORROW.
THE HWO WILL BE ADJUSTED TO FOCUS THE POTENTIAL SEVERE THREAT OVER
THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST CWA (CLOSE TO THE UPDATED SPC DAY 2
OUTLOOK)...BUT ALSO TO MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF GUSTY WINDS (AND HEAVY
RAIN) EVERYWHERE.
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE VERY DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT TIMING
OF THE FRONTAL BAND OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. BASED ON CURRENT
TIMING EXPECTATIONS...THE FAR EASTERN CWA SHOULD BE ABLE TO RISE INTO
THE MIDDLE 70S (POSSIBLY NEAR 80 OUT INTO EASTERN OHIO)...WHERE THE
FIRST HALF OF THE DAY MAY REMAIN MOSTLY DRY. UNDER RAINY
CONDITIONS...THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA MAY NOT EVEN REACH 70
DEGREES.
AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES OUT OF THE AREA...THE FOCUS WILL TURN
TO THE LUMBERING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE WEST. TRYING TO
DETERMINE THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN A FORECAST CHALLENGE
FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...BUT OVERALL DEPICTIONS ACROSS ALL
MODELS (NAM/GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN) ARE NOW FAIRLY SIMILAR. AFTER A
DRY PERIOD GOING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING PERIOD APPEARS TO HAVE A DECENT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION...AS THE UPPER LOW (AND COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT)
POSITIONS ITSELF OVER THE ILN FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES ON
WEDNESDAY WILL CERTAINLY BE SUBDUED...AND SLIGHTLY BELOW
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH ANOMALOUS CLOSED LOW FAIRLY WELL CLUSTERED
/VIA 13.12Z GUIDANCE/ OVER OHIO/MICHIGAN. PUDDLE OF -20C TEMPS AT
500MB THAT ONLY VERY SLOWLY MOVES EAST THROUGH THE DAY SUGGESTS THAT
WE STICK ON THE LOWER SIDE OF THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE
/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MOS/ WHICH SUGGESTS HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S AT
BEST...PERHAPS NOT ESCAPING THE UPPER 50S WHERE SHOWERS ARE
PREVALENT. DID INCREASE RAIN CHANCES ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST 1/2 OF
FORECAST AREA WHICH IS SERN QUADRANT OF UPPER LOW WHERE HIGHEST
MOISTURE RESIDES AND THIS AREA AHEAD OF LAST LOBE OF VORTICITY
SWINGING THROUGH THE SLOWLY EJECTING/OPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. NOT
A BAD LITTLE VERTICAL MOTION SIGNAL /13.12Z GFS AND ECMWF/ AS THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS THROUGH. EVEN SOME SURFACE
REFLECTION /SURFACE TROUGH/ WITH THIS FEATURE SO DIURNALLY ENHANCED
-SHRA ARE EXPECTED ON THE LAST OF THE BLEAK WX DAYS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM.
ON ITS HEELS...ANOTHER SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS HAVE GOOD
CLUSTERING IN THE NWP ON SWINGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES FRI AFTN
INTO SATURDAY...DRIVING WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH THE AREA.
MOISTURE SCOURED OUT VIA SUBSIDENCE/CP INTRUSION ON THE BACKSIDE OF
EJECTING MAIN UPPER SYSTEM ON THURS SHOULD MAKE SHRA POTENTIAL QUITE
LOW SO MAINTAINING DRY FCST FRI/SAT. MODEST WARMING AHEAD OF THE
FEATURE WITH A VERY NARROW WARM WEDGE ON FRI AFTN SUGGESTING TEMPS
ASCEND INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S.
THIS SHORTWAVE ALLOWS FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL LONGWAVE TROUGH
REDEVELOPMENT ON SAT/SUN WITH COOLER/CYCLONIC FLOW SPREADING ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES. THINK WE CAN SQUEEZE OUT A DRY WEEKEND IN THIS
FLOW...BUT LAPSE RATES WILL SLOWLY BE STEEPENING THROUGHOUT THE TROP
IN THIS FLOW REGIME AND WHILE A FEW DIURNALLY ENHANCED -SHRA WILL BE
POSSIBLE SAT AND/OR SUN IN CNTL OR WCNTL OHIO...NOT SEEING A FOCUSED
FORCING SIGNAL FOR RAIN CHANCES RIGHT NOW...SO RUNNING DRY FCST.
TEMPS FALL BACK INTO THE 50S/LWR 60S FOR THE WEEKEND WITH LOWS INTO
THE LWR 40S /POTENTIALLY MID/UPPER 30S IN COLD PRONE AREAS/.
YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DIGS SOUTHEAST SUN NIGHT/MONDAY AND PROBABLY
PRESENTS THE LOWEST CONFIDENCE PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
13.06Z/13.12Z DETERMINISTIC GFS HAS BEEN AGGRESSIVE WITH ADVANCING
FRONT INTERCEPTING RETURN MOISTURE FOR SHRA CHANCE. MODESTLY
SUPPORTED BY GEFS /NOT UNEXPECTED/ BUT CMC ENSEMBLE NOT NEARLY AS
ROBUST WITH RAIN CHANCES. NEW 13.12Z ECMWF ACTUALLY HAS A PRETTY
DECENT FRONTAL ZONE AND SHRA DEVELOPMENT...BUT JUST 12-18 HOURS
SLOWER THAN GFS. THIS ACTUALLY LENDS A WEE BIT OF CONFIDENCE AND
WILL ALLOW FOR THREAT OF SHOWERS AS EARLY AS SUN NIGHT /GFS TIMING/
CONTINUING INTO MON AFTN/EVE /ECMWF TIMING/ AS ENSEMBLE SIGNAL IS
MODEST PER THE CALIBRATED ENSEMBLE DATA /GEFS REFORECAST/. TEMPS
LIKELY AVERAGING OUT BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY INTO MONDAY...IF NOT
BEYOND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF LINE OF CONVECTION IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA IS
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS AVIATION PACKAGE. LATEST TIMING HAS IT
REACH NEAR KCVG AROUND 06Z...BUT EXPECT IT TO BE WEAKENING AS IT
DOES. KEPT CIGS AND VSBYS VFR FROM 06Z-10Z AS THIS OCCURS.
A SECONDARY SURGE OCCURS AFT 12Z TUESDAY AS DEPICTED BY THE
LATEST RUNS OF THE RAP AND HRRR. LINE SHOULD STRENGTHEN AGAIN
WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. MVFR CIGS AND IFR
VSBYS ARE EXPECTED IN THE LINE OF CONVECTION AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
THROUGH THE TAFS. GUSTS IN THE LINE OF OVER 30 KTS ARE EXPECTED.
BY AFTERNOON THE BACKSIDE OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE ENTERING THE
WRN TAFS. CIGS AND VSBYS SHOULD POP UP TO VFR IN THE DRY SLOT.
LATE IN THE PERIOD A VFR SC WRAP AROUND DECK WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD
INTO THE WRN TAFS.
.OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN
SHOWERS.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...HATZOS/SITES
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...BINAU
AVIATION...SITES
TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL SLIGHTLY THIS EVENING...BUT EVEN AS
DEWPOINTS BEGIN TO TEMPORARILY DROP OVERNIGHT...MODELS ARE
INDICATING THAT SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD STEADY OR EVEN
INCREASE SLIGHTLY GOING INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY.
NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURES WERE INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST...WITH MIN
TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S NEAR 06Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODEL AGREEMENT IS RELATIVELY STRONG ON THE OVERALL TIMING AND
ORIENTATION OF THE WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE AREA ON
TUESDAY...THOUGH THERE ARE STILL SOME TYPICAL DIFFERENCES IN
BOUNDARY LAYER T/TD AND INSTABILITY.
ON TUESDAY MORNING...RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE ILN FORECAST AREA. AT THE DIURNAL
MINIMUM...WIDESPREAD THUNDER IS NOT EXPECTED. OVER THE COURSE OF
THE DAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL VERY SLOWLY MOVE ITS WAY EAST ACROSS
THE CWA. THE FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA UNTIL AFTER SUNSET. AS VERY WEAK INSTABILITY GROWS
DURING THE DAY...ELECTRIFICATION OF THE STRONGEST STORM CORES WILL
BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT CONVECTION MAY BE
LOW-TOPPED...SO THUNDER MAY END UP BEING RATHER ISOLATED. WHAT
WRF-NMM/WRF-ARW MODELS SUGGEST MAY OCCUR IS THAT BANDS OF
CONVECTION RE-FOCUS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA DURING THE
LATE MORNING...PROGRESSING NNE THROUGH AFTERNOON. ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...A BAND OF 100-POPS IS IN THE GRIDS...MOVING EAST
ACROSS THE CWA BETWEEN 12Z AND 03Z. A DRY SLOT BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL LEAD TO A QUICK REDUCTION IN PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL (AND A
COMPLETE END TO ANY CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL). THUS...POPS FOR THE
TUESDAY NIGHT PERIOD ARE VERY LOW...AND MUCH OF THE PERIOD MAY BE
DRY.
THOUGH CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAK AT THE START
OF THE DAY...THERE ARE TWO HAZARDOUS WEATHER CONCERNS AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES.
THE FIRST THREAT IS THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN. LARGE-SCALE
MODELS ARE FORECASTING 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...WHILE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS
(NAM12/SREF/WRF-ARW/WRF-NMM) SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
HIGHER VALUES. THE STREAKY NATURE OF THE QPF FIELDS ON THE 4KM WRF
RUNS SUGGEST THAT LOCAL CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WILL LIKELY END UP
BEING RESPONSIBLE FOR THE HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THE
ORIENTATION OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
PROLONGED RAIN AND TRAINING. MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE WARM SECTOR
AND ALONG THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE VERY IMPRESSIVE FOR OCTOBER
(ADMITTEDLY A RELATIVE MEASURE)...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
OF 1.4-1.7 INCHES...OVER 225 PERCENT OF NORMAL. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST DEEP SATURATION...THOUGH ALLOWING ONLY FOR VERY WEAK
INSTABILITY. THIS MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO RIDE NORTH ON DEEP AND
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW...EXTENDING ON A NEAR-DIRECT PATH FROM
THE GULF TO THE OHIO VALLEY. IN A FAVORABLE AREA FOR
LIFT...FOCUSING ALONG THE FRONT...THIS SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WILL SUPPORT A THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN. THIS WILL BE
ESPECIALLY TRUE IN CONVECTIVE BANDS...WHICH WILL LIKELY SET UP
PARALLEL TO THE FRONT AND MOVE IN A GENERALLY NORTHERLY DIRECTION.
EVEN WITH A COUPLE INCHES OF RAIN...RELATIVELY DRY ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS OVER THE ILN CWA MAY KEEP FLOODING FROM BECOMING TOO
SIGNIFICANT. THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE A
WIDESPREAD 1-2 INCHES WITHOUT MAJOR ISSUES. THE CONCERN IS THAT
TRAINING STORMS COULD SURPASS THAT FORECAST CONSIDERABLY. A
LOCALIZED THREAT FOR FLOODING WILL EXIST...AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MENTIONED IN THE HWO.
THE SECOND THREAT IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER...A THREAT
THAT REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. THERE IS NO QUESTION THAT THERE
WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF WIND ENERGY IN THE ATMOSPHERE.
GFS/NAM FORECASTS BOTH INDICATE THAT A 60 KNOT 850MB SOUTHERLY JET
WILL ENTERING THE REGION EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...SHIFTING EAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN FROM THE SSE...A
DIRECTION THAT IS BACKED SLIGHTLY FROM THE FLOW JUST OFF THE
SURFACE. DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE SUPPORTIVE OF STORM
ORGANIZATION (UP TO 60 KNOTS 0-6KM) AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS
DEFINITELY AT THE HIGH END OF THE SCALE (40-50 KNOTS 0-1KM). IN
THE PRESENCE OF SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY...THESE WIND PROFILES WOULD
BE OF SIGNIFICANT CONCERN. HOWEVER...WEAK INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED
TO BE A LIMITING FACTOR TO THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. THE SATURATED
SOUNDINGS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR LARGE CAPE PROFILES...AND BOUNDARY
LAYER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE ONLY MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE...EVEN ON THE MOST UNSTABLE OF SOUNDINGS. SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY FORECASTS FROM VARIOUS MODELS RANGE FROM NOTHING AT
ALL (GFS/ECMWF) TO SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG (NAM/WRF-ARW)...FOCUSED
PRIMARILY IN THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN CWA BY 18Z.
ALSO...THE NORTH-TO-SOUTH ORIENTATION OF THE FRONT IS ALMOST
COMPLETELY PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHERLY SHEAR. THIS
BLOCKY / MERIDIONAL SETUP IS NOT ONE THAT WOULD SUGGEST A
WIDESPREAD WIND RISK OR A TRADITIONAL FORWARD-PROPAGATING QLCS.
WITH AS MUCH WIND ENERGY AS IS PRESENT...ESPECIALLY JUST OFF THE
SURFACE...IT WOULD NOT BE WISE TO WHOLLY DISCOUNT A SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT. IN FACT...IF MARGINAL INSTABILITY IS ABLE TO DEVELOP...THE
IMPRESSIVE WIND FIELDS MIGHT SUPPORT EMBEDDED SUPERCELLULAR
STRUCTURES WITHIN THE BANDS OF CONVECTION. WHAT IS BEING OBSERVED
OVER ILLINOIS TODAY (MONDAY) HAS A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF OCCURRING
HERE...BUT ONLY IF INSTABILITY REACHES THE HIGHEST END OF THE
FORECAST VALUES. T/TD VALUES OVER ILLINOIS ARE BOTH A FEW DEGREES
HIGHER THAN WHAT IS EXPECTED FOR THE ILN FORECAST AREA TOMORROW.
THE HWO WILL BE ADJUSTED TO FOCUS THE POTENTIAL SEVERE THREAT OVER
THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST CWA (CLOSE TO THE UPDATED SPC DAY 2
OUTLOOK)...BUT ALSO TO MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF GUSTY WINDS (AND HEAVY
RAIN) EVERYWHERE.
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE VERY DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT TIMING
OF THE FRONTAL BAND OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. BASED ON CURRENT
TIMING EXPECTATIONS...THE FAR EASTERN CWA SHOULD BE ABLE TO RISE INTO
THE MIDDLE 70S (POSSIBLY NEAR 80 OUT INTO EASTERN OHIO)...WHERE THE
FIRST HALF OF THE DAY MAY REMAIN MOSTLY DRY. UNDER RAINY
CONDITIONS...THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA MAY NOT EVEN REACH 70
DEGREES.
AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES OUT OF THE AREA...THE FOCUS WILL TURN
TO THE LUMBERING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE WEST. TRYING TO
DETERMINE THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN A FORECAST CHALLENGE
FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...BUT OVERALL DEPICTIONS ACROSS ALL
MODELS (NAM/GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN) ARE NOW FAIRLY SIMILAR. AFTER A
DRY PERIOD GOING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING PERIOD APPEARS TO HAVE A DECENT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION...AS THE UPPER LOW (AND COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT)
POSITIONS ITSELF OVER THE ILN FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES ON
WEDNESDAY WILL CERTAINLY BE SUBDUED...AND SLIGHTLY BELOW
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH ANOMALOUS CLOSED LOW FAIRLY WELL CLUSTERED
/VIA 13.12Z GUIDANCE/ OVER OHIO/MICHIGAN. PUDDLE OF -20C TEMPS AT
500MB THAT ONLY VERY SLOWLY MOVES EAST THROUGH THE DAY SUGGESTS THAT
WE STICK ON THE LOWER SIDE OF THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE
/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MOS/ WHICH SUGGESTS HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S AT
BEST...PERHAPS NOT ESCAPING THE UPPER 50S WHERE SHOWERS ARE
PREVALENT. DID INCREASE RAIN CHANCES ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST 1/2 OF
FORECAST AREA WHICH IS SERN QUADRANT OF UPPER LOW WHERE HIGHEST
MOISTURE RESIDES AND THIS AREA AHEAD OF LAST LOBE OF VORTICITY
SWINGING THROUGH THE SLOWLY EJECTING/OPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. NOT
A BAD LITTLE VERTICAL MOTION SIGNAL /13.12Z GFS AND ECMWF/ AS THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS THROUGH. EVEN SOME SURFACE
REFLECTION /SURFACE TROUGH/ WITH THIS FEATURE SO DIURNALLY ENHANCED
-SHRA ARE EXPECTED ON THE LAST OF THE BLEAK WX DAYS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM.
ON ITS HEELS...ANOTHER SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS HAVE GOOD
CLUSTERING IN THE NWP ON SWINGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES FRI AFTN
INTO SATURDAY...DRIVING WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH THE AREA.
MOISTURE SCOURED OUT VIA SUBSIDENCE/CP INTRUSION ON THE BACKSIDE OF
EJECTING MAIN UPPER SYSTEM ON THURS SHOULD MAKE SHRA POTENTIAL QUITE
LOW SO MAINTAINING DRY FCST FRI/SAT. MODEST WARMING AHEAD OF THE
FEATURE WITH A VERY NARROW WARM WEDGE ON FRI AFTN SUGGESTING TEMPS
ASCEND INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S.
THIS SHORTWAVE ALLOWS FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL LONGWAVE TROUGH
REDEVELOPMENT ON SAT/SUN WITH COOLER/CYCLONIC FLOW SPREADING ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES. THINK WE CAN SQUEEZE OUT A DRY WEEKEND IN THIS
FLOW...BUT LAPSE RATES WILL SLOWLY BE STEEPENING THROUGHOUT THE TROP
IN THIS FLOW REGIME AND WHILE A FEW DIURNALLY ENHANCED -SHRA WILL BE
POSSIBLE SAT AND/OR SUN IN CNTL OR WCNTL OHIO...NOT SEEING A FOCUSED
FORCING SIGNAL FOR RAIN CHANCES RIGHT NOW...SO RUNNING DRY FCST.
TEMPS FALL BACK INTO THE 50S/LWR 60S FOR THE WEEKEND WITH LOWS INTO
THE LWR 40S /POTENTIALLY MID/UPPER 30S IN COLD PRONE AREAS/.
YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DIGS SOUTHEAST SUN NIGHT/MONDAY AND PROBABLY
PRESENTS THE LOWEST CONFIDENCE PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
13.06Z/13.12Z DETERMINISTIC GFS HAS BEEN AGGRESSIVE WITH ADVANCING
FRONT INTERCEPTING RETURN MOISTURE FOR SHRA CHANCE. MODESTLY
SUPPORTED BY GEFS /NOT UNEXPECTED/ BUT CMC ENSEMBLE NOT NEARLY AS
ROBUST WITH RAIN CHANCES. NEW 13.12Z ECMWF ACTUALLY HAS A PRETTY
DECENT FRONTAL ZONE AND SHRA DEVELOPMENT...BUT JUST 12-18 HOURS
SLOWER THAN GFS. THIS ACTUALLY LENDS A WEE BIT OF CONFIDENCE AND
WILL ALLOW FOR THREAT OF SHOWERS AS EARLY AS SUN NIGHT /GFS TIMING/
CONTINUING INTO MON AFTN/EVE /ECMWF TIMING/ AS ENSEMBLE SIGNAL IS
MODEST PER THE CALIBRATED ENSEMBLE DATA /GEFS REFORECAST/. TEMPS
LIKELY AVERAGING OUT BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY INTO MONDAY...IF NOT
BEYOND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF LINE OF CONVECTION IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA IS
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS AVIATION PACKAGE. LATEST TIMING HAS IT
REACH NEAR KCVG AROUND 06Z...BUT EXPECT IT TO BE WEAKENING AS IT
DOES. KEPT CIGS AND VSBYS VFR FROM 06Z-10Z AS THIS OCCURS.
A SECONDARY SURGE OCCURS AFT 12Z TUESDAY AS DEPICTED BY THE
LATEST RUNS OF THE RAP AND HRRR. LINE SHOULD STRENGTHEN AGAIN
WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. MVFR CIGS AND IFR
VSBYS ARE EXPECTED IN THE LINE OF CONVECTION AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
THROUGH THE TAFS. GUSTS IN THE LINE OF OVER 30 KTS ARE EXPECTED.
BY AFTERNOON THE BACKSIDE OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE ENTERING THE
WRN TAFS. CIGS AND VSBYS SHOULD POP UP TO VFR IN THE DRY SLOT.
LATE IN THE PERIOD A VFR SC WRAP AROUND DECK WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD
INTO THE WRN TAFS.
.OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN
SHOWERS.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...BINAU
AVIATION...SITES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
646 PM EDT SUN OCT 12 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST AND OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY MONDAY
MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES BY WEDNESDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...ADJUSTED POPS UP A BIT BASED ON HRRR AND NAM/GFS ADVANCE
OF RH AND UVV INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. PRECIP ALREADY
DEVELOPING/MOVING INTO WRN/SRN INDIANA AND KY.
ORIGINAL...MODELS HAVE BEEN A BIT FAST WITH THE PRECIPITATION AS
IT MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL STREAM NORTHEAST
TOWARD THE REGION OVERNIGHT BUT WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME
ENCOUNTERING THE DRY AIR OVER THE REGION AT THIS TIME. SATELLITE
DATA SHOWS CLOUDS MOVING NORTHEAST AT THIS TIME INTO SOUTHWEST
OHIO STRUGGLING TO MAKE ANY HEADWAY. TIMING AS OF NOW WILL BE TO
MOVE AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS INTO THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY THIS EVENING AND TO CLEVELAND AND MANSFIELD
BY 11Z AND TO ERIE AND YOUNGSTOWN BY 14Z. INCREASING CLOUDINESS
WILL TAKE PLACE OVERNIGHT AS WELL.
TEMPERATURES IN THE SREF AND LOCAL MODEL HAVE BEEN DOING WELL SO FAR
AND WILL BE LEANING IN THAT DIRECTION FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE OVERNIGHT AND LOWS WILL NOT BE ANY WHERE
NEAR THE LOWS THIS MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
DEEP DIGGING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS FEATURE WILL REFLECT A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AT THE SURFACE AND TRACK IT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES. THIS IS INDICATIVE OF A TYPICAL FALL PATTERN AS LOWS
TEND TO TRACK IN A SIMILAR FASHION. MANY DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS
IN TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT IT IS GOING
TO RAIN AT SOME POINT BETWEEN MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WE
ACTUALLY SEE A COUPLE SURGES OF DRIER AIR ALTERNATING WITH MOISTURE
SURGES SO THERE COULD BE PERIODS OF NO PRECIPITATION. WILL TRY AND
HIGHLIGHT THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THE PRECIPITATION THREATS THROUGH
THIS PERIOD. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES IN OVER THE REGION ALONG
WITH THE PRE FRONTAL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT...THUNDER IS A
POSSIBILITY AND WILL KEEP AT LEAST A CHANCE OR ISOLATED THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS.
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP WELL AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND IN THE WAKE OF THE HIGH. THIS ALONE WILL HELP TO FORCE
SOME WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION. IF WE DO GET SOME BREAKS OF SUN
TOMORROW AND TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL INDEED BE WELL INTO THE 70S
EACH DAY. WILL STAY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD FOR GUIDANCE MAX
TEMPERATURES. COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE WEDNESDAY WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE LONG TERM AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WOBBLES OVER
THE REGION. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVEMENT WILL LIKELY BE CLOSER IN
TIMING TO THE ECMWF. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY LOOK LIKE
THEY WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS BUT IT WILL ALL HINGE ON THE
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER THAT DEVELOPS UNDER THE COLD CORE OF AIR
ALOFT. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ATTEMPT TO MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION ON SATURDAY BUT ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL LIKELY DIVE INTO
THE GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. THE DIFFERENCE WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM IS
THAT IT WILL ORIGINATE OVER CANADA. THIS WILL MEAN COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH UNTIL 06Z TONIGHT BUT CEILINGS WILL SLOWLY
THICKEN AND LOWER. MVFR CEILINGS WILL ARRIVE NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER
THE SHOWERS MOVE INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT. THE
SHOWERS SHOULD SPREAD FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AFTER 08Z.
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND BECOME GUSTY AROUND
12Z NEAR KERI. ALL LOCATIONS WILL HAVE SOUTHERLY WINDS BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. WESTERN HALF OF THE REGION WILL SEE GUSTS AROUND 20
KNOTS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE IS EAST OF THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AN
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER
THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
ONLY SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND MAY REACH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH
THE WEEK BUT THERE IS GREAT UNCERTAINTY ON THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE
LOW. WINDS WILL LIKELY BE THE STRONGEST ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE LAKE AT SOME POINT
TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS MAY INCREASE ENOUGH TO NEED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY ON TUESDAY UNTIL THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSES. THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO WOBBLE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH WINDS INCREASING AHEAD OF EACH PIECE OF
ENERGY THAT ROTATES AROUND IT.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...TK/LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...MULLEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORMAN OK
850 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014
.UPDATE...
WIND SPEEDS HAVE DECREASED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS SO WIND
ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO DROP. RAIN HAS ALSO MOVED EAST OF THE AREA
AND CLOUDS CONT TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST. COOL AND DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS UPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY
FROM THE FA.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 656 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014/
AVIATION...
SKIES ARE CLEARING THIS EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST AND CLOUDS HAVE
EXITED ALL BUT KPNC... KOKC AND KOUN AS OF THE LATEST OBS. CIGS
ARE VFR WHERE CLOUDS REMAIN. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT THIS
EVENING.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014/
DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS FOCUSED ON RAIN ENDING AND STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS.
CURRENTLY... LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SHIFT
EASTWARD OUT OF CENTRAL OK. EXPECT PRECIP TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING... SLOWLY TAPERING OFF ACROSS THE OKC METRO THROUGH 4-
5 PM CDT. RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR APPEAR TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON
THE PRECIP TRENDS... SO LEFT A SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH THE LATE
EVENING... 7-10PM FOR LOCATIONS ALONG I-35 IN N CENTRAL OK. STRONG
NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST ACROSS WRN AND CENTRAL OK THROUGH
THE EVENING. THROUGH 300 PM CDT... SITES ACROSS WRN OK CONTINUE
TO REPORT GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH... WHERE CLEARING CONTINUES...
THUS RESULTING IN BETTER BL MIXING. WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY
THROUGH THE EVENING... RELAXING GRADUALLY AFTER SUNSET. NW WINDS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUE... PICKING UP THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING/AFTN WITH INCREASED MIXING DUE TO DAY TIME HEATING. NOT AS
WINDY AS TODAY... GUSTS TMRW WILL APPROACH 20 TO 30 MPH ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND ERN OK. WITH NW WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH
TUE... TEMPS WILL ONLY TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S ACROSS
OK... AND MID 70S IN WRN N TX.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK... INTO THE WEEKEND... RIDGING WILL
DEVELOP WED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. IN RESPONSE... SOUTH WINDS
WILL RETURN... RESULTING IN A GRADUAL WARM UP THROUGH SUN. NOT
RECORD WARMTH... BUT HIGHS WILL BE A 5-7 DEGREES ABOVE AVG... IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AT TIMES FROM WED-SUN.
LATE THIS WEEKEND... LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING HINTS OF ANOTHER
H500 SHORTWAVE... SO PRECIP CHANCES MAY RETURN LATE SUN-MON.
JTK
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 45 70 45 76 / 10 0 0 0
HOBART OK 44 73 45 78 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 46 75 47 80 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 40 72 41 78 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 46 70 42 72 / 10 0 0 0
DURANT OK 48 73 48 76 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
25/26
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
656 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014
.AVIATION...
SKIES ARE CLEARING THIS EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST AND CLOUDS HAVE
EXITED ALL BUT KPNC... KOKC AND KOUN AS OF THE LATEST OBS. CIGS
ARE VFR WHERE CLOUDS REMAIN. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT THIS
EVENING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014/
DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS FOCUSED ON RAIN ENDING AND STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS.
CURRENTLY... LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SHIFT
EASTWARD OUT OF CENTRAL OK. EXPECT PRECIP TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING... SLOWLY TAPERING OFF ACROSS THE OKC METRO THROUGH 4-
5 PM CDT. RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR APPEAR TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON
THE PRECIP TRENDS... SO LEFT A SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH THE LATE
EVENING... 7-10PM FOR LOCATIONS ALONG I-35 IN N CENTRAL OK. STRONG
NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST ACROSS WRN AND CENTRAL OK THROUGH
THE EVENING. THROUGH 300 PM CDT... SITES ACROSS WRN OK CONTINUE
TO REPORT GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH... WHERE CLEARING CONTINUES...
THUS RESULTING IN BETTER BL MIXING. WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY
THROUGH THE EVENING... RELAXING GRADUALLY AFTER SUNSET. NW WINDS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUE... PICKING UP THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING/AFTN WITH INCREASED MIXING DUE TO DAY TIME HEATING. NOT AS
WINDY AS TODAY... GUSTS TMRW WILL APPROACH 20 TO 30 MPH ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND ERN OK. WITH NW WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH
TUE... TEMPS WILL ONLY TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S ACROSS
OK... AND MID 70S IN WRN N TX.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK... INTO THE WEEKEND... RIDGING WILL
DEVELOP WED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. IN RESPONSE... SOUTH WINDS
WILL RETURN... RESULTING IN A GRADUAL WARM UP THROUGH SUN. NOT
RECORD WARMTH... BUT HIGHS WILL BE A 5-7 DEGREES ABOVE AVG... IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AT TIMES FROM WED-SUN.
LATE THIS WEEKEND... LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING HINTS OF ANOTHER
H500 SHORTWAVE... SO PRECIP CHANCES MAY RETURN LATE SUN-MON.
JTK
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 46 70 45 76 / 10 0 0 0
HOBART OK 45 73 45 78 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 47 75 47 80 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 41 72 41 78 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 47 70 42 72 / 20 0 0 0
DURANT OK 49 73 48 76 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ004>031-033>041-
044>046-050.
TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083>090.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
330 PM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014
.DISCUSSION...
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE MID STATE
THIS AFTERNOON. THE BULK OF THE CLOUD COVER...HOWEVER...IS LOCATED
ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE A COMPLEX OF SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY
IS ONGOING...GENERALLY SOUTH OF A LEWISBURG THROUGH MANCHESTER
LINE AT 130 PM. THIS ACTIVITY IS IN RESPONSE TO A WARM FRONT THAT
IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED ACROSS NRN AL. ON THE SFC CHARTS DEWPOINTS
HAVE WARMED WELL INTO THE 60S ACROSS OUR AREA. THERE IS A WEAK SFC
BOUNDARY THAT LIFTED NORTHWARD EARLIER TODAY AND IS NOW LOCATED
OVER KY. AT ANY RATE...CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO FIRE ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE NORTHWARD MOVING BOUNDARY. WE SHOULD SEE CONVECTION
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. A
FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG. OTW...MODELS APPEAR TO BE
BIT TOO HIGH WITH THE POPS AGAIN. WILL INCLUDE POPS IN THE LIKELY
RANGE AS HRRR DOES SHOW SOME REDEVELOPMENT TOWARD 12Z.
ON MONDAY...PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE MAIN
STORM SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS STATES BEGINS TO GAIN STRENGTH.
CONSIDERED A WIND ADVISORY BUT EURO AND NAM SOLUTIONS DONT QUITE
SUPPORT THE REQUIRED 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE AND WILL THEREFORE PUNT TO
THE MID SHIFT ON THE POTENTIAL ISSUANCE. FOR HIGH TEMPS...850 MB
TEMPS OF 14C-16C WILL COMBINE WITH SOME REASONABLY STRONG LATE DAY
SUBSIDENCE TO PRODUCE RATHER WARM TEMPERATURES. WILL BE GOING WITH
LOWER TO MID 80S FOR HIGHS TO THE WEST OF THE PLATEAU. NOT A WHOLE
LOT OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. POPS WILL BE
KEPT ON THE LOW SIDE. MAINLY A BREEZY AND HUMID DAY FOR MID OCTOBER.
MONDAY EVENING...MODELS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR A SEVERE WEATHER
EVENT. STRONG PRE FRONTAL FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO HEAD OUR WAY AND
REACH WESTERN AREAS MONDAY EVENING. THE PREFRONTAL ACTIVITY WILL
MOVE SLOWLY WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AND WILL TAP INTO A RATHER STRONG
65-70 KT LLJ. THUS...WIND DAMAGE IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY.
FURTHERMORE...HELICITY VALUES ARE SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED AND SO THE
TORNADIC THREAT EXISTS AS WELL.
IT LOOKS AS THOUGH SOME SEVERE ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
MAIN LINE...AND THIS WILL OCCUR AROUND EARLY EVENING IN OUR WESTERN
MOST COUNTIES. BUT...THE MAIN LINE OF ACTIVITY WILL REACH OUR
WESTERN MOST COUNTIES TOWARD MIDNIGHT....THEN THE NASHVILLE AREA
FROM 3 AM TO 6 AM...THEN THE PLATEAU FROM 6 AM UNTIL 9 AM TUESDAY
MORNING. POPS OF COURSE WILL BE CATEGORICAL AND WILL INCLUDE SEVERE
WEATHER WORDING. ADDITIONALLY...FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN GIVEN THE
MAGNITUDE OF FORCING AND THE RATHER LOW FFG VALUES. NO FLOOD WATCH
WILL BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME HOWEVER AS THE 1 HR FFG GENERALLY
EXCEEDS THE EXPECTED AVERAGE 1HR RAINFALL RATES ALONG THE LINE OF
CONVECTION.
ON TUESDAY...CONDITIONS WILL QUIET DOWN EVEN THOUGH THE MAIN SFC
BOUNDARY DOES NOT REACH THE AREA UNTIL TUES NT. THE REASON FOR THIS
IS BECAUSE THE SFC LOW WILL TRACK TOWARD THE STRONGEST WAA AREA AND
THIS WILL TAKE IT FURTHER NORTH AND THEREBY CREATE SEPARATION FROM
THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH. SO THE DIRECTIONAL FORCING WILL
BE MUCH MUCH WEAKER THAN WITHIN THE PREFRONTAL AREA THAT ROARS
THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT. STILL THOUGH...WILL KEEP SHOWERS(TSTMS
EARLY EAST) GOING IN THE FCST FOR TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY AS
WELL.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FCST...DRIER AIR WILL FINALLY WIN
OUT BY THURSDAY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES INTO THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL AS HIGHER HEIGHT VALUES
QUICKLY MOVE BACK IN BEHIND THE EXITING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 66 84 67 73 / 60 40 100 60
CLARKSVILLE 63 84 63 70 / 50 60 100 50
CROSSVILLE 61 78 64 72 / 70 30 80 90
COLUMBIA 65 84 66 72 / 60 40 100 60
LAWRENCEBURG 64 85 64 70 / 60 40 100 50
WAVERLY 64 84 63 70 / 50 60 100 50
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
21
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1235 PM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014
.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1041 AM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014/
DISCUSSION...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING PLACES A QUASI-
STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER NORTHERN/CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA.
REGIONAL WSR-88D RADAR TRENDS SHOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BEGINNING TO INCREASE ACROSS THE MID SOUTH AS A SUBTLE MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MOVES ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS OF 10 AM CDT...TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE MID SOUTH RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL AND FAR NORTHWEST
TENNESSEE...AND 60S TO LOWER 70S ELSEWHERE. AFTERNOON FORECAST
REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE OVERALL AND UPDATE WAS TO ACCOUNT FOR
CONVECTIVE/TEMPERATURE TRENDS.
UPDATED GRIDS ALREADY SENT.
CJC
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 AM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014/
UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014/
DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...A STATIONARY FRONT IS LOCATED FROM NORTHERN ALABAMA
INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. THERE ARE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG PREVALENT ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE MID SOUTH. THE FOG IS BECOMING DENSE IN MANY
LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY AROUND THE MEMPHIS METRO SO WILL ISSUE A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR EARLY THIS MORNING. TEMPS THIS MORNING
RANGE FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS THE NORTH TO LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS
NORTH MISSISSIPPI.
TODAY...THE FRONT WILL MOVE BACK NORTH THROUGH THE DAY AS A WARM
FRONT AND BY THIS AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL BE BACK INTO THE 70S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA WITH A SOUTHERLY BREEZE AND DEWPOINTS RISING INTO
THE MID 60S. 00Z MODELS AND THE LATEST HRRR ARE INDICATING SOME
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND WEST TENNESSEE
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE AIRMASS DESTABILIZES WITH LIFTED INDEX
VALUES OF -4C AND SBCAPES OF 1200-1500 J/KG. THERE COULD BE A FEW
STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. UPPED POPS A BIT
NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER AND NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS ACTIVITY. THE FRONT WILL TAKE LONGER TO MOVE THROUGH
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS SO TEMPS THERE SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S
OR LOWER 70S WITH LOWER CHANCES OF PRECIP.
TONIGHT...A POTENT UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS OVERNIGHT AND BE LOCATED IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA BY 12Z MON.
MEANWHILE A DEVELOPING SURFACE WILL BE LOCATED IN NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AT THE SAME TIME. ANY ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL PROBABLY DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING. AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES A BELT OF 40-50 KT MID LEVEL FLOW AND AN INCREASING
850 MB LLJ OF 40+ KTS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA. AS A RESULT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD START DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE MS RIVER. THE STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
TRANSPORT MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR NORTHWARD WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S...SBCAPES 500-1000 J/KG AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. SHEAR WILL BE INCREASING WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 40
KTS AFTER 09Z MON. THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY THAT THESE STORMS
COULD BE SEVERE AND POSSIBLY SURFACE BASED. SO THOUGH THE FOCUS IS
ON THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATER ON MONDAY WILL NEED TO WATCH
THIS PERIOD OF TIME FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...SEVERE WEATHER EVENT LOOKING LIKELY
WHICH IS CORROBORATED NICELY BY THE CIPS ANALOG PAGE FROM SLU. THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL PIVOT EAST DURING THE DAY AND MOVE TO THE
NORTHEAST OK/SOUTHWEST MO AREA BY 00Z TUE AND THEN INTO CENTRAL
MISSOURI OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS INTO TO ST
LOUIS BY 12Z TUESDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS
THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THE 00Z MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT.
TYPICAL DISAGREEMENTS IN TIMING EXIST WITH THE GFS A LITTLE FASTER
AND THE NAM/ECMWF A FEW HOURS SLOWER. GENERALLY TOOK A COMPROMISE
APPROACH TO TIMING. MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
NORTH IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM AS DEWPOINTS CLIMB INTO THE UPPER
60S TO AROUND 70F. SURFACE HEATING IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM WILL
HELP TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S WHILE STRONG
HEIGHT FALLS SPREAD THE REGION. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF
6.5-7C WILL BE PRESENT AND SBCAPES WILL CLIMB TO 1500-2000 J/KG.
MEANWHILE THE LLJ WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY UP TO 55 KTS OVER THE
DELTA BY 18Z MONDAY WHILE A 80-90 KT MID LEVEL JET BEGINS TO PUNCH
INTO THE REGION. LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE QUITE ADEQUATE WITH 0-1KM
SHEAR VALUES OF 300 M2/S2...POSSIBLY HIGHER WITH THE SURFACE LOW
TRACKING INTO MISSOURI WHICH WILL CAUSE ADDITIONAL BACKING OF THE
SURFACE WINDS. EXPECT BROKEN LINE SEGMENTS OF STORMS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS ARKANSAS WITH SOME DISCRETE CELLS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE DELTA
REGION IN THE AFTERNOON. THE LINES WILL EVENTUALLY CONGEAL INTO A
QLCS NEAR THE MS RIVER AND PUSH EAST DURING THE EVENING EVENTUALLY
EXITING THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS THOUGH A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IF
DISCRETE CELLS CAN FORM EARLY ON DURING THE EVENT. A FEW TORNADOES
WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THE BOWING SEGMENTS OF THE QLCS AS IT
PUSHES EAST AS WELL. HAIL WOULD BE A SECONDARY THREAT AND MOST
COMMON EARLY ON.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE ECMWF FOR
THIS TIME PERIOD...SURPRISE. AS A RESULT IT LOOKS CLOUDIER AND
COOLER WITH SOME SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER NE SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. TUESDAY WILL BE COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND BIT
WARMER ON WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...UPPER LOW EXITS AND WARMER ZONAL FLOW
TAKES OVER. DRY AND TEMPS REBOUNDING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF
THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...18Z TAFS
CIGS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH...ALTHOUGH
MORE SLOWLY IN EAST ARKANSAS. MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE MVFR CIGS OR
BETTER FOR MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP AGAIN OVERNIGHT...BUT WINDS SHOULD STAY UP LIMITING
THE DEVELOPMENT OF BR/FG. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP VCTS IN THE TAFS FOR NOW...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH THAT COVERAGE WILL BE WIDESPREAD. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER
THAT ALL SITES WILL SEE THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 12 AND 18Z TOMORROW.
ADDED PREVAILING THUNDER AT ALL SITES BEGINNING AT 12Z AT JBR...13Z
AT MEM 14Z AT MKL AND 15Z AT TUP. TEMPORARY IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO
VIS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1041 AM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014
.DISCUSSION...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING PLACES A QUASI-
STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER NORTHERN/CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA.
REGIONAL WSR-88D RADAR TRENDS SHOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BEGINNING TO INCREASE ACROSS THE MID SOUTH AS A SUBTLE MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MOVES ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS OF 10 AM CDT...TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE MID SOUTH RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL AND FAR NORTHWEST
TENNESSEE...AND 60S TO LOWER 70S ELSEWHERE. AFTERNOON FORECAST
REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE OVERALL AND UPDATE WAS TO ACCOUNT FOR
CONVECTIVE/TEMPERATURE TRENDS.
UPDATED GRIDS ALREADY SENT.
CJC
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 AM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014/
UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014/
DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...A STATIONARY FRONT IS LOCATED FROM NORTHERN ALABAMA
INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. THERE ARE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG PREVALENT ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE MID SOUTH. THE FOG IS BECOMING DENSE IN MANY
LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY AROUND THE MEMPHIS METRO SO WILL ISSUE A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR EARLY THIS MORNING. TEMPS THIS MORNING
RANGE FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS THE NORTH TO LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS
NORTH MISSISSIPPI.
TODAY...THE FRONT WILL MOVE BACK NORTH THROUGH THE DAY AS A WARM
FRONT AND BY THIS AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL BE BACK INTO THE 70S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA WITH A SOUTHERLY BREEZE AND DEWPOINTS RISING INTO
THE MID 60S. 00Z MODELS AND THE LATEST HRRR ARE INDICATING SOME
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND WEST TENNESSEE
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE AIRMASS DESTABILIZES WITH LIFTED INDEX
VALUES OF -4C AND SBCAPES OF 1200-1500 J/KG. THERE COULD BE A FEW
STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. UPPED POPS A BIT
NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER AND NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS ACTIVITY. THE FRONT WILL TAKE LONGER TO MOVE THROUGH
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS SO TEMPS THERE SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S
OR LOWER 70S WITH LOWER CHANCES OF PRECIP.
TONIGHT...A POTENT UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS OVERNIGHT AND BE LOCATED IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA BY 12Z MON.
MEANWHILE A DEVELOPING SURFACE WILL BE LOCATED IN NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AT THE SAME TIME. ANY ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL PROBABLY DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING. AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES A BELT OF 40-50 KT MID LEVEL FLOW AND AN INCREASING
850 MB LLJ OF 40+ KTS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA. AS A RESULT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD START DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE MS RIVER. THE STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
TRANSPORT MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR NORTHWARD WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S...SBCAPES 500-1000 J/KG AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. SHEAR WILL BE INCREASING WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 40
KTS AFTER 09Z MON. THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY THAT THESE STORMS
COULD BE SEVERE AND POSSIBLY SURFACE BASED. SO THOUGH THE FOCUS IS
ON THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATER ON MONDAY WILL NEED TO WATCH
THIS PERIOD OF TIME FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...SEVERE WEATHER EVENT LOOKING LIKELY
WHICH IS CORROBORATED NICELY BY THE CIPS ANALOG PAGE FROM SLU. THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL PIVOT EAST DURING THE DAY AND MOVE TO THE
NORTHEAST OK/SOUTHWEST MO AREA BY 00Z TUE AND THEN INTO CENTRAL
MISSOURI OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS INTO TO ST
LOUIS BY 12Z TUESDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS
THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THE 00Z MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT.
TYPICAL DISAGREEMENTS IN TIMING EXIST WITH THE GFS A LITTLE FASTER
AND THE NAM/ECMWF A FEW HOURS SLOWER. GENERALLY TOOK A COMPROMISE
APPROACH TO TIMING. MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
NORTH IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM AS DEWPOINTS CLIMB INTO THE UPPER
60S TO AROUND 70F. SURFACE HEATING IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM WILL
HELP TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S WHILE STRONG
HEIGHT FALLS SPREAD THE REGION. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF
6.5-7C WILL BE PRESENT AND SBCAPES WILL CLIMB TO 1500-2000 J/KG.
MEANWHILE THE LLJ WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY UP TO 55 KTS OVER THE
DELTA BY 18Z MONDAY WHILE A 80-90 KT MID LEVEL JET BEGINS TO PUNCH
INTO THE REGION. LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE QUITE ADEQUATE WITH 0-1KM
SHEAR VALUES OF 300 M2/S2...POSSIBLY HIGHER WITH THE SURFACE LOW
TRACKING INTO MISSOURI WHICH WILL CAUSE ADDITIONAL BACKING OF THE
SURFACE WINDS. EXPECT BROKEN LINE SEGMENTS OF STORMS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS ARKANSAS WITH SOME DISCRETE CELLS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE DELTA
REGION IN THE AFTERNOON. THE LINES WILL EVENTUALLY CONGEAL INTO A
QLCS NEAR THE MS RIVER AND PUSH EAST DURING THE EVENING EVENTUALLY
EXITING THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS THOUGH A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IF
DISCRETE CELLS CAN FORM EARLY ON DURING THE EVENT. A FEW TORNADOES
WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THE BOWING SEGMENTS OF THE QLCS AS IT
PUSHES EAST AS WELL. HAIL WOULD BE A SECONDARY THREAT AND MOST
COMMON EARLY ON.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE ECMWF FOR
THIS TIME PERIOD...SURPRISE. AS A RESULT IT LOOKS CLOUDIER AND
COOLER WITH SOME SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER NE SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. TUESDAY WILL BE COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND BIT
WARMER ON WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...UPPER LOW EXITS AND WARMER ZONAL FLOW
TAKES OVER. DRY AND TEMPS REBOUNDING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF
THE WEEK.
SJM
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS
LIFR CIGS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH FOG AND SCATTERED SHOWERS.
CONDITIONS WILL LIFT TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY VFR THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING. TUP WILL HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ACTIVITY ON STATION...WITH VCTS AT MEM AND MKL. CIGS
WILL LOWER BACK TO MVFR TONIGHT WITH NEW STORMS DEVELOPING NEAR
JBR. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL VEER MORE SOUTHERLY AND SLOWLY INCREASE.
WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT JBR NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD.
JAB
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MORRISTOWN TN
1005 AM EDT SUN OCT 12 2014
.DISCUSSION...
THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON THE MAIN AREAS OF
RAINFALL THIS MORNING. THE GENERAL TREND THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON WILL BE FOR THE AREA OF SHOWERS NOW BETWEEN TYS AND TRI
TO MOVE NE...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...THE JET STREAK OVER TEXARKANA TO NRN MS WILL TRACK INTO
WEST AND MIDDLE TN...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASED ACTIVITY IN
OUR WESTERN SECTIONS. SATELLITE IS SHOWING SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS SOUTH...SO DESTABILIZATION IN THAT AREA SHOULD LEAD TO MORE
TS. SEVERE POTENTIAL LOOKS LOW AT THIS TIME ALTHOUGH WITH GREATER
HEATING SOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE.
THE FORECAST WILL BE UPDATED TO REFLECT THESE TRENDS...MENTIONING
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TS LATE THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH AND
WEST. TEMPERATURES APPEAR ON TRACK SO FAR.
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
DGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
621 AM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014/
DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...A STATIONARY FRONT IS LOCATED FROM NORTHERN ALABAMA
INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. THERE ARE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG PREVALENT ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE MIDSOUTH. THE FOG IS BECOMING DENSE IN MANY
LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY AROUND THE MEMPHIS METRO SO WILL ISSUE A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR EARLY THIS MORNING. TEMPS THIS MORNING
RANGE FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS THE NORTH TO LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS
NORTH MISSISSIPPI.
TODAY...THE FRONT WILL MOVE BACK NORTH THROUGH THE DAY AS A WARM
FRONT AND BY THIS AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL BE BACK INTO THE 70S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA WITH A SOUTHERLY BREEZE AND DEWPOINTS RISING INTO
THE MID 60S. 00Z MODELS AND THE LATEST HRRR ARE INDICATING SOME
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND WEST TENNESSEE
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE AIRMASS DESTABILIZES WITH LIFTED INDEX
VALUES OF -4C AND SBCAPES OF 1200-1500 J/KG. THERE COULD BE A FEW
STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. UPPED POPS A BIT
NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER AND NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS ACTIVITY. THE FRONT WILL TAKE LONGER TO MOVE THROUGH
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS SO TEMPS THERE SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S
OR LOWER 70S WITH LOWER CHANCES OF PRECIP.
TONIGHT...A POTENT UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS OVERNIGHT AND BE LOCATED IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA BY 12Z MON.
MEANWHILE A DEVELOPING SURFACE WILL BE LOCATED IN NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AT THE SAME TIME. ANY ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL PROBABLY DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING. AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES A BELT OF 40-50 KT MID LEVEL FLOW AND AN INCREASING
850 MB LLJ OF 40+ KTS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA. AS A RESULT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD START DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE MS RIVER. THE STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
TRANSPORT MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR NORTHWARD WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S...SBCAPES 500-1000 J/KG AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. SHEAR WILL BE INCREASING WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 40
KTS AFTER 09Z MON. THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY THAT THESE STORMS
COULD BE SEVERE AND POSSIBLY SURFACE BASED. SO THOUGH THE FOCUS IS
ON THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATER ON MONDAY WILL NEED TO WATCH
THIS PERIOD OF TIME FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...SEVERE WEATHER EVENT LOOKING LIKELY
WHICH IS CORROBORATED NICELY BY THE CIPS ANALOG PAGE FROM SLU. THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL PIVOT EAST DURING THE DAY AND MOVE TO THE
NORTHEAST OK/SOUTHWEST MO AREA BY 00Z TUE AND THEN INTO CENTRAL
MISSOURI OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS INTO TO ST
LOUIS BY 12Z TUESDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS
THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THE 00Z MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT.
TYPICAL DISAGREEMENTS IN TIMING EXIST WITH THE GFS A LITTLE FASTER
AND THE NAM/ECMWF A FEW HOURS SLOWER. GENERALLY TOOK A COMPROMISE
APPROACH TO TIMING. MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
NORTH IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM AS DEWPOINTS CLIMB INTO THE UPPER
60S TO AROUND 70F. SURFACE HEATING IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM WILL
HELP TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S WHILE STRONG
HEIGHT FALLS SPREAD THE REGION. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF
6.5-7C WILL BE PRESENT AND SBCAPES WILL CLIMB TO 1500-2000 J/KG.
MEANWHILE THE LLJ WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY UP TO 55 KTS OVER THE
DELTA BY 18Z MONDAY WHILE A 80-90 KT MID LEVEL JET BEGINS TO PUNCH
INTO THE REGION. LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE QUITE ADEQUATE WITH 0-1KM
SHEAR VALUES OF 300 M2/S2...POSSIBLY HIGHER WITH THE SURFACE LOW
TRACKING INTO MISSOURI WHICH WILL CAUSE ADDITIONAL BACKING OF THE
SURFACE WINDS. EXPECT BROKEN LINE SEGMENTS OF STORMS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS ARKANSAS WITH SOME DISCRETE CELLS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE DELTA
REGION IN THE AFTERNOON. THE LINES WILL EVENTUALLY CONGEAL INTO A
QLCS NEAR THE MS RIVER AND PUSH EAST DURING THE EVENING EVENTUALLY
EXITING THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS THOUGH A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IF
DISCRETE CELLS CAN FORM EARLY ON DURING THE EVENT. A FEW TORNADOES
WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THE BOWING SEGMENTS OF THE QLCS AS IT
PUSHES EAST AS WELL. HAIL WOULD BE A SECONDARY THREAT AND MOST
COMMON EARLY ON.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE ECMWF FOR
THIS TIME PERIOD...SURPRISE. AS A RESULT IT LOOKS CLOUDIER AND
COOLER WITH SOME SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER NE SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. TUESDAY WILL BE COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND BIT
WARMER ON WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...UPPER LOW EXITS AND WARMER ZONAL FLOW
TAKES OVER. DRY AND TEMPS REBOUNDING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF
THE WEEK.
SJM
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS
LIFR CIGS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH FOG AND SCATTERED SHOWERS.
CONDITIONS WILL LIFT TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY VFR THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING. TUP WILL HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ACTIVITY ON STATION...WITH VCTS AT MEM AND MKL. CIGS
WILL LOWER BACK TO MVFR TONIGHT WITH NEW STORMS DEVELOPING NEAR
JBR. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL VEER MORE SOUTHERLY AND SLOWLY INCREASE.
WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT JBR NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD.
JAB
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR CLAY-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-
MISSISSIPPI-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.
MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR DUNKLIN-
PEMISCOT.
MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR COAHOMA-
DESOTO-MARSHALL-TATE-TUNICA.
TN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR BENTON TN-
CARROLL-CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-
HARDEMAN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-
OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
325 AM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014
.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...A STATIONARY FRONT IS LOCATED FROM NORTHERN ALABAMA
INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. THERE ARE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG PREVALENT ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE MIDSOUTH. THE FOG IS BECOMING DENSE IN MANY
LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY AROUND THE MEMPHIS METRO SO WILL ISSUE A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR EARLY THIS MORNING. TEMPS THIS MORNING
RANGE FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS THE NORTH TO LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS
NORTH MISSISSIPPI.
TODAY...THE FRONT WILL MOVE BACK NORTH THROUGH THE DAY AS A WARM
FRONT AND BY THIS AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL BE BACK INTO THE 70S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA WITH A SOUTHERLY BREEZE AND DEWPOINTS RISING INTO
THE MID 60S. 00Z MODELS AND THE LATEST HRRR ARE INDICATING SOME
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND WEST TENNESSEE
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE AIRMASS DESTABILIZES WITH LIFTED INDEX
VALUES OF -4C AND SBCAPES OF 1200-1500 J/KG. THERE COULD BE A FEW
STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. UPPED POPS A BIT
NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER AND NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS ACTIVITY. THE FRONT WILL TAKE LONGER TO MOVE THROUGH
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS SO TEMPS THERE SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S
OR LOWER 70S WITH LOWER CHANCES OF PRECIP.
TONIGHT...A POTENT UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS OVERNIGHT AND BE LOCATED IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA BY 12Z MON.
MEANWHILE A DEVELOPING SURFACE WILL BE LOCATED IN NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AT THE SAME TIME. ANY ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL PROBABLY DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING. AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES A BELT OF 40-50 KT MID LEVEL FLOW AND AN INCREASING
850 MB LLJ OF 40+ KTS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA. AS A RESULT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD START DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE MS RIVER. THE STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
TRANSPORT MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR NORTHWARD WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S...SBCAPES 500-1000 J/KG AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. SHEAR WILL BE INCREASING WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 40
KTS AFTER 09Z MON. THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY THAT THESE STORMS
COULD BE SEVERE AND POSSIBLY SURFACE BASED. SO THOUGH THE FOCUS IS
ON THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATER ON MONDAY WILL NEED TO WATCH
THIS PERIOD OF TIME FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...SEVERE WEATHER EVENT LOOKING LIKELY
WHICH IS CORROBORATED NICELY BY THE CIPS ANALOG PAGE FROM SLU. THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL PIVOT EAST DURING THE DAY AND MOVE TO THE
NORTHEAST OK/SOUTHWEST MO AREA BY 00Z TUE AND THEN INTO CENTRAL
MISSOURI OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS INTO TO ST
LOUIS BY 12Z TUESDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS
THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THE 00Z MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT.
TYPICAL DISAGREEMENTS IN TIMING EXIST WITH THE GFS A LITTLE FASTER
AND THE NAM/ECMWF A FEW HOURS SLOWER. GENERALLY TOOK A COMPROMISE
APPROACH TO TIMING. MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
NORTH IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM AS DEWPOINTS CLIMB INTO THE UPPER
60S TO AROUND 70F. SURFACE HEATING IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM WILL
HELP TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S WHILE STRONG
HEIGHT FALLS SPREAD THE REGION. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF
6.5-7C WILL BE PRESENT AND SBCAPES WILL CLIMB TO 1500-2000 J/KG.
MEANWHILE THE LLJ WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY UP TO 55 KTS OVER THE
DELTA BY 18Z MONDAY WHILE A 80-90 KT MID LEVEL JET BEGINS TO PUNCH
INTO THE REGION. LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE QUIET ADEQUATE WITH
0-1KM SHEAR VALUES OF 300 M2/S2...POSSIBLY HIGHER WITH THE SURFACE
LOW TRACKING INTO MISSOURI WHICH WILL CAUSE ADDITIONAL BACKING OF
THE SURFACE WINDS. EXPECT BROKEN LINE SEGMENTS OF STORMS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS ARKANSAS WITH SOME DISCRETE CELLS POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE DELTA REGION IN THE AFTERNOON. THE LINES WILL EVENTUALLY
CONGEAL INTO A QLCS NEAR THE MS RIVER AND PUSH EAST DURING THE
EVENING EVENTUALLY EXITING THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE
MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS THOUGH A FEW TORNADOES ARE
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IF DISCRETE CELLS CAN FORM EARLY ON DURING THE
EVENT. A FEW TORNADOES WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THE BOWING
SEGMENTS OF THE QLCS AS IT PUSHES EAST AS WELL. HAIL WOULD BE A
SECONDARY THREAT AND MOST COMMON EARLY ON.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE ECMWF FOR
THIS TIME PERIOD...SURPRISE. AS A RESULT IT LOOKS CLOUDIER AND
COOLER WITH SOME SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER NE SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. TUESDAY WILL BE COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND BIT
WARMER ON WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...UPPER LOW EXITS AND WARMER ZONAL FLOW
TAKES OVER. DRY AND TEMPS REBOUNDING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF
THE WEEK.
SJM
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS
IFR/OCCASIONAL LIFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT... AS MOIST
GULF AIR OVERSPREADS A STATIONARY FRONT THAT WAS OVER NORTH MS AT
05Z. THE SURFACE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT OVERNIGHT...
PERHAPS AIDING THE CHANCES OF ELEVATED THUNDER AFTER 12Z TO THE
SOUTH AND WEST OF MEM. FLIGHT CATEGORY WILL IMPROVE SUNDAY DURING
THE 15Z TO 18Z PERIOD... AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE
AREA.
PWB
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR CLAY-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-
MISSISSIPPI-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.
MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR DUNKLIN-
PEMISCOT.
MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR COAHOMA-
DESOTO-MARSHALL-TATE-TUNICA.
TN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR BENTON TN-
CARROLL-CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-
HARDEMAN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-
OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1133 PM CDT SAT OCT 11 2014
.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
COLD FRONT HAS NOW PUSHED TO NEAR THE COAST...WITH NORTH WINDS AT
ALL SITES EXCEPT GLS. SHOULD SEE A SHIFT TO NORTH WINDS SHORTLY
THERE AS WELL. THERE HAS BEEN A BAND OF LOW CLOUDS BEHIND THE
FRONT BUT THIS HAS TENDED TO THIN AND BREAK APART OVER SOUTHERN
TAF SITES...FROM KIAH AND KSGR ON SOUTH...WHERE SKIES ARE NOW
GENERALLY SCATTERED. LOWEST CIGS CURRENTLY AT CXO AND UTS WHERE
STILL AOB 1000 FEET.
OVERNIGHT...EXPECT SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOWER DECK AT CXO AND
UTS...TO TRANSITION TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER BROKEN DECK AROUND 1500
GIVEN SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR FILTERING IN. FOR KIAH...KHOU...KSGR...
EXPECT CURRENT SCATTERED CONDITIONS TO ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT GIVEN RAINFALL FROM EARLIER...EVAP COOLING AND LIGHT
WINDS. STILL PROBABLY NOT DENSE GIVEN SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR FILTERING
IN. WILL ALSO EVOLVE TO A BROKEN MVFR DECK THERE.
NEAR THE COAST CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR EVEN
TSTRM...BEING CLOSEST TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WHICH MAY START TO
RETURN TOWARD THE COAST AGAIN TOWARD SUNRISE...OR A LITTLE AFTER.
46
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 820 PM CDT SAT OCT 11 2014/
UPDATE...
SEE EVENING UPDATE.
DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUED TO MAKE SLOW BUT STEADY PROGRESS ACROSS THE
CWA THIS EVENING. AT 01Z...THE FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM ABOUT
CLEVELAND TO JUST WEST OF HOBBY AIRPORT TO WEST COLUMBIA TO LAKE
TEXANA. ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE ACCOMPANIED THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT
COVERAGE IS MEAGER. 00Z 850 MB ANALYSIS STILL SHOWS PLENTY OF
MOISTURE ACROSS LOUISIANA AND SOUTH TEXAS WITH A WEAK 850 MB LOW
OVER EASTERN OK AND A TROUGH EXTENDING SW ACROSS CENTRAL TX. A
WEAK 700 MB TROUGH EXTENDS FROM WESTERN OK INTO NE TX WITH THE
DEEPER 700 MB MSTR SHUNTED TO NE TX. AT 250 MB...SE TX LIES IN A
WEAK RRQ AND ANOTHER SPEED MAX WILL ROTATE AROUND A BROAD UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES ON SUNDAY KEEPING SE TX IN A RRQ.
THE RAP 13 IS AGGRESSIVE WITH SHRA/TSRA REDEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY CLOSE TO AND JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST. THE
POSITION OF THE JET AND 850 MB MSTR SEEMS SUPPORTIVE OF THIS
SCENARIO. PREV FCST ALREADY MENTIONS CHANCE POPS FOR SUNDAY
MORNING SO OTHER THAN MINOR TWEAKS TO THE GRIDS...FEEL PREV FCST
IS IN GOOD SHAPE. 43
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 704 PM CDT SAT OCT 11 2014/
DISCUSSION...
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION.
AVIATION...
COLD FRONT NOW FROM NEAR IAH TO E OF SGR...AND SAGGING SEWD TOWARD
HOU. BEHIND THE FRONT SEEING NW WINDS BRIEFLY 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND
GUSTY. LOWER CLOUDS FOLLOW WITH CIGS BLO 1000 FEET AT
UTS...CXO...AND NOW DWH. EXPECT THESE LOWER CIGS TO OVERSPREAD
IAH...SGR AND HOU WITHIN THE NEXT FEW OURS AS WELL...MOSTLY
MVFR...BUT FOR A FEW HOURS AT LEAST...SOME IFR CIGS AS WELL.
OVERNIGHT...SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR FILTERS IN BUT THINK WILL KEEP THE
LOWER CIGS...MAINLY MVFR...AT MOST SITES WITH DIMINISHING NW
WINDS. SE RETURN FLOW KICKS ON ON SUNDAY. PRECIP COVERAGE SHOULD
BE LIMITED AND WILL INCLUDE ONLY VCSH FOR NOW. 46
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CDT SAT OCT 11 2014/
DISCUSSION...
SFC ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY STALLED ALONG
THE COAST OR JUST INLAND. BOUNDARY IS RATHER DIFFUSE SO LIKELY
DISSIPATING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. THERE IS ALSO A COLD FRONT THAT
CURVES FROM THE ARKLATEX SOUTH TO CROCKETT THEN SOUTH OF BRENHAM
TO SAN ANTONIO. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY MAKE SOME SLOW PROGRESS
SOUTHWARD TONIGHT STALLING AT THE COAST. THE LATEST HRRR/RAP RUNS
SEEM TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THIS. FORECAST WILL KEEP 20 POPS
IN FOR THE OVERNIGHT BUT REALLY DO NOT EXPECT MUCH PRECIP TO
OCCUR. THE FRONT SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE TOMORROW AS SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW INCREASES.
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE THE
SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBILITIES MONDAY. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS A STRONG JET STREAK AND DEVELOPING TROUGH COMING INTO THE
PAC NW. THE TROUGH WILL QUICKLY AMPLIFY TOMORROW WITH SFC
CYCLOGENESIS IN THE TX PANHANDLE AS JET STREAK COMES INTO THE S
ROCKIES. UPPER LOW THEN MOVES INTO THE S PLAINS BY MON MORNING
WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING S THROUGH TX. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE
WHETHER LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BREAK THE CAP
AS THERE WILL BE A DECENT ELEVATED MIXED LAYER. RIGHT NOW LOOKS
LIKE THE BOTTOM LOBE OF VORTICITY IN THE TROUGH MAY JUST BE ENOUGH
AND GENERATE QG ASCENT TO ERODE THE CAP. THE FRONT WILL BE ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT LINEAR FORCING FOR A SQUALL LINE TO DEVELOP. DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL BE AROUND 40-5OKTS WITH MODERATE CAPE THAT THE SQUALL
LINE COULD PRODUCE SEVERE WINDS/HAIL. STILL SOME DOUBTS AS TO THE
MAGNITUDE OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR WHICH WOULD HELP WITH POSSIBLE
ROTATING UPDRAFTS IN THE SQUALL LINE. A LLJ OF 40-50KTS WOULD
LIKELY SUPPORT STRONG ENOUGH SHEAR SO POSSIBLE THAT THERE COULD BE
SOME BRIEF TORNADOES FROM A QLCS OR BOWING SEGMENT.
MAIN THREAT APPEARS TO BE DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS THROUGH
THE EARLY AFTERNOON ON MONDAY. AREAS EAST OF COLLEGE STATION AND
NORTH OF HOUSTON SHOULD MONITOR CONDITIONS CLOSELY AS THINK THIS
WILL BE THE MAIN AREA THAT COULD SEE SEVERE WEATHER. SEVERE THREAT
WILL SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST ALONG THE COAST INTO E TX BY EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH THE LINE PUSHING EAST. SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES
INCREASE GREATLY NORTH AND EAST OF HOUSTON TOWARDS ARKANSAS.
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY AND OFF THE COAST
MONDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP SO
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED. THERE COULD BE SOME WIND
GUSTS TO GALE FORCE IN OFFSHORE AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA MON NIGHT INTO TUE ALLOWING FOR MORE SEASONABLE
CONDITIONS. LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 50S WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 70S. COOLER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WEDNESDAY WITH MIN TEMPS
POSSIBLY IN THE LOW 50S. RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK SO EXPECT A WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES.
39
MARINE...
WEAK COOL FRONT/WIND SHIFT LINE APPEARS TO BE SLOWING DOWN THIS AFTN
AND CURRENTLY NEAR/RIGHT ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR. THIS LINE COULD
REACH THE BAYS/RIGHT ALONG THE COAST THIS EVENING BEFORE IT
EVENTUALLY STALLS AND WASHES OUT OVERNIGHT. AS SUCH WILL BE
KEEPING A GENERALLY LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW IN PLACE FOR ALL THE MARINE
ZONES THRU SUN MORN. AS THE NEXT SYSTEM DEEPENS OVER THE SRN
PLAINS...THE TIGHTENING GRAD- IENT WILL HELP PRODUCE STRENGTHENING
ONSHORE WINDS THRU SUN AFTN. WE COULD REACH SCEC CRITERIA FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS SUN NIGHT/EARLY MON MORN. ALL OF THIS IS AHEAD OF
ANOTHER (STRONGER) COLD FRONT WHICH IS SLATED TO MOVE OFFSHORE
LATE MON AFTN/EARLY EVE. A LINE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY
THE FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS. STRONG NNW WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT MIGHT BE ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW GUSTS TO GALE BY MON NIGHT.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE ALSO LIKELY. THESE OFFSHORE WINDS TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN BY TUES AFTN AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE
REGION. ONSHORE WINDS NOT FCST TO RETURN UNTIL THURS OR SO. 41
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 63 84 72 78 53 / 10 20 30 80 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 66 86 74 85 57 / 20 20 20 80 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 74 83 77 86 64 / 20 30 20 70 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION/MARINE...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1035 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 921 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014
MASSIVE AREA OF R/R+ SHIFTG NWD ACRS THE FCST AREA. SOMEWHAT OF A
DRY SLOT WAS DEVELOPING OVER SRN WI...BUT AS IS TYPICAL FOR SITNS
SUCH AS THIS...SML CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS CONTD TO FEED INTO THE MAIN
PCPN AREA FM THE S. WITH PWATS EXTREMELY HIGH /00Z GRB RAOB HAD A
RECORD HIGH PWAT FOR OCTOBER 14 ACCORDING TO SPC SOUNDING
CLIMATOLOGY WEBSITE/ AND STG FORCING CONTINUING...EXPECT SIG RAINS
TO CONT OVERNIGHT.
OSH IS THE RAINFALL LEADER ACRS THE FCST AREA THUS FAR...WITH 1.35
INCHES. JUST CHECKED WITH WINNEBAGO COUNTY AND THEY HAD NO REPORTS
OF PROBLEMS ON THE ROADS YET. BUT WOULD BE AMAZED IF THERE WASN/T
SOME PONDING OF WATER IN LOW-LYING AREAS AND WHERE STORM DRAIN
GRATES WERE CLOGGED WITH LEAVES. WL CONT TO MENTION IN THE SPS BUT
HAVE NOT RECEIVED ANY INDICATION OF CONDITIONS WARRANTING AN
URBAN/SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY YET.
NEW NAM AND RAP SUGGEST THAT AFTER A LULL LATER TOMORROW
MORNING...ANOTHER MORE ORGANIZED BAND OF RAIN IN THE UPR
DEFORMATION ZONE COULD WRAP BACK WWD INTO THE FCST AREA AGAIN LATE
TOMORROW AFTN/EVENING. WHILE THAT WOULD ADD TO THE RAIN
TOTALS...THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE WOULD BE CONSIDERABLY LOWER BY
THEN AS THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT WL HAVE SHIFTED OFF TO THE E OF THE
AREA.
GOING FCST IN GOOD SHAPE. WL MAKE SOME SHORT-TERM ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE GRIDS AND HAVE UPDATED FCST OUT WITHIN ABOUT 20 MINUTES.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014
A WET NIGHT IS EXPECTED ACRS THE AREA. VERY IMPRESSIVE LIFT AND
MOISTURE. LIFT BEING SUPPLIED BY 850 LLJ IN EXCESS OF 50 KTS ACRS
NRN IL...WITH THE NOSE OF THE LLJ GETTING DIRECTED INTO SE AND E-C
WI. MEANWHILE...PWATS FCST TO CLIMB TO ABV 1.5 INCHES OVER E-C WI...OR
250 PCT OF NORMAL. PCPN RATES OF .25 TO .50 INCHES PER HR
OCCURRING OVER SE WI NOW...AND GIVEN THE SUSTAINED LIFT EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT...THE MODEL CONSENSUS 2-3 INCH RAINFALLS OVER E-C WI ARE
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
LUCKILY...RIVERS ARE NOT STARTING OUT EXCEPTIONALLY HIGH...SO ANY
RESULTING HIGH WATER ISSUES ON RIVERS WON/T OCCUR OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH
THERE WL BE SOME CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS TO THE PCPN...ESP OVER E-C
WI...PCPN WL BE MORE STRATIFORM IN NATURE...SO WE ARE LIKELY TO
GET A SOAKING RAIN ACRS THE WHOLE FCST AREA RATHER THAN A FLASH
FLOODING RAIN CONCENTRATED IN A SML AREA. MIGHT EVENTUALLY NEED AN
URBAN/SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA IF
PONDING OF WATER BECOMES AN ISSUE...BUT WL HANDLE SITN WITH SPS/S
FOR NOW. THERE IS ALSO SOME QUESTION OVER EXACTLY WHERE THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALLS WL OCCUR AS THE FAR S COULD DRY SLOT A LITTLE
LATE TNGT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014
VERY IMPRESSIVE SYSTEM WILL BRING HEAVY RAIN TO THE AREA TONIGHT.
REGIONAL RADARS ALREADY INDICATED RAIN AND SOME THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ACROSS IOWA...NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.
SIGNIFICANT OVERRUNNING WILL TAKE PLACE TONIGHT AS SURFACE WINDS
TURN TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST WHILE WINDS AT FIVE TO TEN
THOUSAND FEET WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH. COUPLED JET STREAK NOTED
ON MODELS WITH REGION BEING IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF 130
KNOT JET STREAK ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. 850MB LOW LEVEL JET
WILL INCREASE TO 50 TO 60 KNOTS ACROSS ILLINOIS WITH LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE /STRONGEST 850MB WARM ADVECTION ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. SOME MESOSCALE MODELS INDICATED AXIS
OF HEAVY BAND WILL SET UP A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH THAN THIS MORNING.
PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN COULD SEE THUNDER IF THIS SHIFT
OCCURS AS DRY SLOT MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN LATER THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION SHOULD SHIFT INTO FAR
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. GUSTY NORTH/NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT.
UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER ACROSS THE REGION WITH TWO
SEPARATE MODEL SOLUTIONS NOTED ON AXIS OF HEAVIEST QPF. WILL
CONTINUE LIKELY/CATEGORICAL CHANCES ACROSS THE EAST WITH LOW END
CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. IT WILL BE COOL WITH GUSTY
NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUING. DID NOT STRAY FAR FROM GUIDANCE
FOR MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014
THE FIRST ISSUE FOR THE LONG TERM IS DEALING WITH THE DEPARTURE
OF A WEAKENING STACKING UPPER LOW SYSTEM. MODEL SOLUTIONS FROM
THIS MORNING HAVE HELD THEIR GROUND WITH THE OUTLIER ECMWF
HOLDING THE UPPER SYSTEM OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY...WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE RUNS ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE.
MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND PCPN
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AND WILL NEED TO
KEEP A LOWER END CHC POP FOR THURSDAY.
PROGS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH SOME NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY DROPPING
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND PHASING WITH THE SLOWLY DEPARTING
MID WEEK SYSTEM. AS A RESULT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS CHANCES WILL
LINGER IN THE COOL MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW INTO SATURDAY OVER AT
LEAST NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. A COOLER AIR MASS
WILL POUR INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THIS SECOND PIECE OF ENERGY AS
H850 TEMPS FALL TO NEAR ZERO.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ALSO IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH BUILDING UPPER
HEIGHTS LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK...FOR TREND TO
MILDER AND DRIER CONDITIONS.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1032 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014
GENERALLY POOR FLIGHT CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HRS AS STG
CYCLONE OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY GENERATES WIDESPREAD
RAIN AND POOR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ACRS THE AREA. WINDS WL ALSO
INCREASE OVERNIGHT...AND WL BE QUITE STG AND GUSTY TOMORROW...ESP
IN ERN WI. VSBYS AND THEN CIGS WL PROBABLY START TO SLOWLY EDGE
UP AS THE INCREASING NLY FLOW DRAWS DRIER AIR AT LOW-LEVELS INTO
THE AREA.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014
WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN COMING TO MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. MOST AREAS CAN EXPECT 1 TO 2 INCHES...HOWEVER THE
POTENTIAL OF AN AXIS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE AND MAY
FALL OVER PARTS OF THE AREA IN A 12 HOUR PERIOD. ITS POSSIBLE AN
URBAN SMALL STREAM ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED TONIGHT WITH RESPECT TO
THIS POSSIBLE FOCUS OF HIGHER RAINFALL. DUE TO INITIAL DRY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH THE ESF FOR TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE NOT
HIGH ENOUGH FOR A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE.........SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....ECKBERG
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI
HYDROLOGY......TDH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GREEN BAY WI
933 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014
NEW INFORMATION ADDED TO UPDATE SECTION
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 921 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014
MASSIVE AREA OF R/R+ SHIFTG NWD ACRS THE FCST AREA. SOMEWHAT OF A
DRY SLOT WAS DEVELOPING OVER SRN WI...BUT AS IS TYPICAL FOR SITNS
SUCH AS THIS...SML CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS CONTD TO FEED INTO THE MAIN
PCPN AREA FM THE S. WITH PWATS EXTREMELY HIGH /00Z GRB RAOB HAD A
RECORD HIGH PWAT FOR OCTOBER 14 ACCORDING TO SPC SOUNDING
CLIMATOLOGY WEBSITE/ AND STG FORCING CONTINUING...EXPECT SIG RAINS
TO CONT OVERNIGHT.
OSH IS THE RAINFALL LEADER ACRS THE FCST AREA THUS FAR...WITH 1.35
INCHES. JUST CHECKED WITH WINNEBAGO COUNTY AND THEY HAD NO REPORTS
OF PROBLEMS ON THE ROADS YET. BUT WOULD BE AMAZED IF THERE WASN/T
SOME PONDING OF WATER IN LOW-LYING AREAS AND WHERE STORM DRAIN
GRATES WERE CLOGGED WITH LEAVES. WL CONT TO MENTION IN THE SPS BUT
HAVE NOT RECEIVED ANY INDICATION OF CONDITIONS WARRANTING AN
URBAN/SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY YET.
NEW NAM AND RAP SUGGEST THAT AFTER A LULL LATER TOMORROW
MORNING...ANOTHER MORE ORGANIZED BAND OF RAIN IN THE UPR
DEFORMATION ZONE COULD WRAP BACK WWD INTO THE FCST AREA AGAIN LATE
TOMORROW AFTN/EVENING. WHILE THAT WOULD ADD TO THE RAIN
TOTALS...THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE WOULD BE CONSIDERABLY LOWER BY
THEN AS THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT WL HAVE SHIFTED OFF TO THE E OF THE
AREA.
GOING FCST IN GOOD SHAPE. WL MAKE SOME SHORT-TERM ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE GRIDS AND HAVE UPDATED FCST OUT WITHIN ABOUT 20 MINUTES.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014
A WET NIGHT IS EXPECTED ACRS THE AREA. VERY IMPRESSIVE LIFT AND
MOISTURE. LIFT BEING SUPPLIED BY 850 LLJ IN EXCESS OF 50 KTS ACRS
NRN IL...WITH THE NOSE OF THE LLJ GETTING DIRECTED INTO SE AND E-C
WI. MEANWHILE...PWATS FCST TO CLIMB TO ABV 1.5 INCHES OVER E-C WI...OR
250 PCT OF NORMAL. PCPN RATES OF .25 TO .50 INCHES PER HR
OCCURRING OVER SE WI NOW...AND GIVEN THE SUSTAINED LIFT EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT...THE MODEL CONSENSUS 2-3 INCH RAINFALLS OVER E-C WI ARE
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
LUCKILY...RIVERS ARE NOT STARTING OUT EXCEPTIONALLY HIGH...SO ANY
RESULTING HIGH WATER ISSUES ON RIVERS WON/T OCCUR OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH
THERE WL BE SOME CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS TO THE PCPN...ESP OVER E-C
WI...PCPN WL BE MORE STRATIFORM IN NATURE...SO WE ARE LIKELY TO
GET A SOAKING RAIN ACRS THE WHOLE FCST AREA RATHER THAN A FLASH
FLOODING RAIN CONCENTRATED IN A SML AREA. MIGHT EVENTUALLY NEED AN
URBAN/SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA IF
PONDING OF WATER BECOMES AN ISSUE...BUT WL HANDLE SITN WITH SPS/S
FOR NOW. THERE IS ALSO SOME QUESTION OVER EXACTLY WHERE THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALLS WL OCCUR AS THE FAR S COULD DRY SLOT A LITTLE
LATE TNGT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014
VERY IMPRESSIVE SYSTEM WILL BRING HEAVY RAIN TO THE AREA TONIGHT.
REGIONAL RADARS ALREADY INDICATED RAIN AND SOME THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ACROSS IOWA...NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.
SIGNIFICANT OVERRUNNING WILL TAKE PLACE TONIGHT AS SURFACE WINDS
TURN TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST WHILE WINDS AT FIVE TO TEN
THOUSAND FEET WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH. COUPLED JET STREAK NOTED
ON MODELS WITH REGION BEING IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF 130
KNOT JET STREAK ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. 850MB LOW LEVEL JET
WILL INCREASE TO 50 TO 60 KNOTS ACROSS ILLINOIS WITH LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE /STRONGEST 850MB WARM ADVECTION ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. SOME MESOSCALE MODELS INDICATED AXIS
OF HEAVY BAND WILL SET UP A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH THAN THIS MORNING.
PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN COULD SEE THUNDER IF THIS SHIFT
OCCURS AS DRY SLOT MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN LATER THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION SHOULD SHIFT INTO FAR
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. GUSTY NORTH/NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT.
UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER ACROSS THE REGION WITH TWO
SEPARATE MODEL SOLUTIONS NOTED ON AXIS OF HEAVIEST QPF. WILL
CONTINUE LIKELY/CATEGORICAL CHANCES ACROSS THE EAST WITH LOW END
CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. IT WILL BE COOL WITH GUSTY
NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUING. DID NOT STRAY FAR FROM GUIDANCE
FOR MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014
THE FIRST ISSUE FOR THE LONG TERM IS DEALING WITH THE DEPARTURE
OF A WEAKENING STACKING UPPER LOW SYSTEM. MODEL SOLUTIONS FROM
THIS MORNING HAVE HELD THEIR GROUND WITH THE OUTLIER ECMWF
HOLDING THE UPPER SYSTEM OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY...WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE RUNS ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE.
MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND PCPN
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AND WILL NEED TO
KEEP A LOWER END CHC POP FOR THURSDAY.
PROGS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH SOME NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY DROPPING
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND PHASING WITH THE SLOWLY DEPARTING
MID WEEK SYSTEM. AS A RESULT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS CHANCES WILL
LINGER IN THE COOL MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW INTO SATURDAY OVER AT
LEAST NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. A COOLER AIR MASS
WILL POUR INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THIS SECOND PIECE OF ENERGY AS
H850 TEMPS FALL TO NEAR ZERO.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ALSO IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH BUILDING UPPER
HEIGHTS LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK...FOR TREND TO
MILDER AND DRIER CONDITIONS.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014
VERY POOR FLIGHT CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HRS AS STG
CYCLONE OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY GENERATES WIDESPREAD
RAIN AND LOW CIGS ACRS THE AREA. WINDS WL ALSO INCREASE AND BECOME
QUITE GUSTY TOMORROW.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014
WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN COMING TO MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. MOST AREAS CAN EXPECT 1 TO 2 INCHES...HOWEVER THE
POTENTIAL OF AN AXIS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE AND MAY
FALL OVER PARTS OF THE AREA IN A 12 HOUR PERIOD. ITS POSSIBLE AN
URBAN SMALL STREAM ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED TONIGHT WITH RESPECT TO
THIS POSSIBLE FOCUS OF HIGHER RAINFALL. DUE TO INITIAL DRY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH THE ESF FOR TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE NOT
HIGH ENOUGH FOR A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE.........SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....ECKBERG
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI
HYDROLOGY......TDH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
930 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 930 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014
FRONTOGENETICALLY DRIVEN RAIN CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE FORECAST
AREA...HOWEVER...THE CORRIDOR OF STRONGEST F-GEN HAS SHIFTED WEST
AND EXTENDS FROM NEAR EAU CLAIRE TO ROCHESTER AND MASON CITY.
MEANWHILE...A DRY SLOT IN THE REFLECTIVITY AND EVEN IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY IS NOTED OVER WESTERN ILLINOIS INTO SOUTHERN WI...MOSTLY
JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
13.18Z GFS AND 14.00Z HRRR MODELS GENERALLY SEEM TO HAVE THE BEST
HANDLE ON THE FARTHER WEST TREND TO THE STRONGEST F-GEN
CURRENTLY...AND HAVE ADJUSTED QPF TOWARDS THEM FOR THE ENTIRE
NIGHT. THE RESULT WAS A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT UPWARD ADJUSTMENT TO
QPF FOR 06-12Z ALONG/WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. APPEARS DURING
THIS PERIOD THE STRONGER F-GEN BAND WILL MAKE ITS WAY BACK
EASTWARD A BIT AS THE UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS TO OUR SOUTH CONTINUE
THEIR SLOW MARCH NORTHEASTWARD.
INTERESTINGLY...HEADING INTO TUESDAY...THE 13.18Z GFS STALLS THE
F-GEN BAND PRETTY MUCH OVER LA CROSSE AND WINONA ALL DAY WHILE
WEAKENING IT. IF THIS OCCURS...THE QPF FORECASTS NEED TO GO UP
SOME FOR TUESDAY AS WELL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014
FORECAST CHALLENGES INCLUDE RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND THE SPEED IN
WHICH THE CURRENT SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE REGION. 13.12Z GFS/ECMWF
NAM/GEM HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 15.12Z...BUT THEN
DIVERGE SOMEWHAT WITH HOW QUICKLY RAIN ENDS BY MID-WEEK. THE
NAM/GEM ARE MOST PROGRESSIVE WHEREAS THE ECMWF IS SLOWEST AND THE
GFS SOMEWHERE IN-BETWEEN. WILL FOLLOW A GFS/ECMWF BLENDED SOLUTION
FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
13.20Z REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS A SWATH OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
STRETCHING ACROSS MOST OF IA INTO NORTHERN IL AND SOUTHERN WI.
THIS RAIN WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
AS SURFACE LOW DRIFTS SLOWLY ACROSS MO AND THEN STALLS OUT ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL IL BY TOMORROW. STRONG MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ALONG
TROUGH AXIS COMBINED WITH PWATS FROM 1.0 TO 1.5 INCHES WILL
PRODUCE PERIODS OF MODERATE TO EVEN HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH THE
NIGHT. WITH UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS ACROSS IA SHOWING RATES OF 0.10
TO 0.20 INCHES PER HOUR...OVERNIGHT TOTALS FROM 0.25 INCHES ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST TO OVER AN INCH ACROSS THE EAST/SOUTHEAST ARE
LIKELY. RAINFALL WILL EXTEND OVER SEVERAL HOURS AND WITH RECENT
DRY WEATHER...FLOODING IS NOT A CONCERN. WINDS TONIGHT WILL SHIFT
TO THE NORTH WITH INCREASING GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. WITH 100 PERCENT
CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL SLOWLY OR REMAIN STEADY...
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
FORCING SLOWLY DECREASES ON TUESDAY...BUT WITH THE STALLED LOW
FILLING-IN ACROSS IL AND AMPLE MOISTURE...EXPECT PERIODS OF LIGHT
RAIN THROUGH THE DAY. RAIN WILL SLOWLY DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. UP TO AN ADDITIONAL QUARTER OF AN INCH IS
POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY...BUT
IT WILL BE MUCH MORE WINDY WITH FREQUENT NORTHERLY GUSTS FROM 20
TO 30 MPH.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014
SURFACE LOW FINALLY MOVES INTO CENTRAL IN BY MID-DAY ON WEDNESDAY.
GFS/NAM/GEM DRY OUT THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY 16.00Z...BUT THE
ECMWF CONTINUES TO HOLD ONTO SOME LOW QPF ACROSS THE FAR EAST.
WILL HONOR THIS WITH 20 TO 30 POPS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MAINLY ACROSS
WESTERN WI...BUT ALSO CLIPPING EXTREME NORTHEAST IA AND SOUTHEAST
MN. CLOUD COVER WILL BE VERY SLOW TO MOVE OUT...BUT COULD SEE SOME
PEAKS OF SUN ALLOWING AFTERNOON HIGHS TO RISE A DEGREE OR TWO
COMPARED TO TUESDAY.
THURSDAY LIKELY TO BE DRY ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO LINGER
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN WI. WILL CONTINUE
20 POPS FOR THESE AREAS. ASSUMING CLOUDS BREAK-UP A BIT...THURSDAY
WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH QUICK-MOVING THERMAL
RIDGE MOVING OVERHEAD IN FRONT OF THE NEXT WAVE ALOFT. EXPECT
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GFS
KEEPS PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT THE ECMWF/
GEM ARE FARTHER SOUTH. BEST CHANCES APPEAR TO BE ACROSS TAYLOR/
CLARK COUNTIES...SO WILL KEEP 20 POPS CONFINED TO THIS AREA
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN MOSTLY
DRY CONDITIONS WITH DAILY HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S TO
LOWER 40S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 631 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014
DEFORMATION BAND RAIN HAS SET UP OVER KRST/KLSE THIS EVENING AND
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY MORNING. IFR TO
LOW-END MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST AT BOTH SITES...WITH
VISIBILITIES IN THE 3-5 SM RANGE. NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE
OVERNIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS THANKS TO THE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ADVANCING CLOSER. FOR TUESDAY...ONCE THE LOW
PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT
IN CONDITIONS. HI-RES MODELS STILL SHOW RAIN SHOWERS LINGERING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AT BOTH SITES...THOUGH KRST WILL IMPROVE
QUICKLY ONCE DRIER AIR MAKES A PUSH THROUGH. PLAN ON BREEZY NORTH
WINDS ALL DAY...WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 32 KTS AT KRST AND 25 KTS
AT KLSE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS
AVIATION...ZT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSONVILLE FL
415 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014
...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WED...
SYNOPSIS...A ROBUST PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE WAS ONGOING EARLY THIS MORNING
OVER THE FL PANHANDLE...WITH THE TRAILING SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHING
MOBILE BAY. THE PARENT STACKED LOW PRESSURE CENTERS WERE PHASING OVER
THE MIDWEST...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS STILL DIGGING SOUTHWARD
TOWARD THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. SPOKES OF PVA WERE ROTATING AROUND
THE STACKED LOW...THE STRONGEST LOBE FUELING THE CURRENT PRE-FRONTAL
SQUALL LINE...WITH ANOTHER WEAKER SPOKE OF ENERGY ROTATING ENE OVER
THE EASTERN GULF COAST NEAR APALACHEE BAY WHERE A FEW CLUSTERS OF TSTORMS
WERE FIRING THIS HOUR.
THIS MORNING...A FEW MORNING COASTAL WILL SKIRT THE ATLANTIC COAST
WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER FROM THE WEST. BREEZY SOUTH WINDS WILL
NEAR 15 MPH AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE RIVER BASIN AND COAST
BY MID-MORNING AS TEMPS RISE INTO THE MID 80S BY NOON UNDER WARM
AIR ADVECTION. PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL APPROACH THE
SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY FROM APALACHEE BAY...WITH THE HRRR SHOWING
ROBUST ACTIVITY IN THE GULF FADING AS IT SHIFTS INLAND THROUGH
MIDDAY...WITH AREAS EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 301 CORRIDOR REMAINING DRY
LESS A STRAY EARLY MORNING COASTAL SHOWER.
THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT...BY EARLY AFTN...THE COMBINATION OF DAYTIME
HEATING AND THE APPROACH OF PVA WILL FUEL A BLOSSOMING OF
SHOWERS/TSTORMS ACROSS INLAND AREAS PRESSING STEADILY EASTWARD
TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. STRONG
WINDS GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN GIVEN SHEAR
PROFILES...WITH ROTATING CELLS ALSO POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER SE
GA AND THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY WHERE BULK SHEAR WILL BE
STRONGEST. AFTER THE INITIAL CLUSTER OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN PRECIP
SHIFTS OFFSHORE OF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD THIS EVENING...ANOTHER
ROBUST LINE OF PRECIP WILL EDGE EASTWARD ALONG THE ACTUAL COLD
FRONT ENTERING OUR WESTERN ZONES AND SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY ZONES
AROUND 03Z BASED ON MODEL CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE GFS40/NAM12. THE
HEAVY LINE OF TSTORMS WILL LIKELY DECREASE IN INTENSITY WITH THE
LOSS OF HEATING TONIGHT AND AS STRONGER DYNAMICS LIFT NE OF THE
AREA AS THE PARENT SYSTEM FINALLY LIFTS OUT. EXCEPT A GRADUAL
SPLIT IN PRECIP CORE TONIGHT AS THE SQUALL LINE APPROACHES THE JAX
METRO AREA...WITH ONE CORE LIFTING NE WITH DYNAMICS AND THE OTHER
EDGING INLAND OVER OUR SOUTHERN FL ZONES WHERE GULF INSTABILITY
WILL BE HIGHER.
WED...A FEW RUMBLES OF EARLY MORNING THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE TRAILING
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE OVER COASTAL GA AND NE FL...WITH MAINLY SHOWER
ACTIVITY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THROUGH MIDDAY. AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GULF REGION BUILDS OVER THE LOCAL AREA...WEST
WINDS WILL PREVAIL WITH DRIER AIR EDGING IN BY MIDDAY WITH DEW
PTS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S OVER INLAND SE GA AND THE SUWANNEE
RIVER VALLEY DURING THE AFTN. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S
OVER OUR NORTHERN SE GA ZONES TO LOWER 80 ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN FL
ZONES AS SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY.
THURSDAY...A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE AS UPPER TROUGH AXIS
SHIFTS EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR CLIMO LEVELS. MORNING LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 50S WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS 75 TO 80 DEGREES.
.LONG TERM...
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AT SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
PROVIDE DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND BECOME DIFFUSE WITH LITTLE EFFECTS. MAX
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH MIN TEMPERATURES NEAR AVERAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...
A FEW COASTAL SHOWERS MAY SKIRT NEAR SSI AND CRG EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH A BRIEF SHOT OF MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO BKN CIGS NEAR 3KFT. CLOUD
COVER WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN FROM THE SSW THROUGH THE DAY IN ADVANCE
OF COLD FRONT...WITH A COUPLE OF BANDS OF PRE- FRONTAL PRECIP EXPECTED
TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT 36 HRS. BY MIDDAY...A BAND OF
PRECIP WILL LIKELY BE EDGING INLAND FROM THE GULF COAST REGION SHIFTING
ENE INTO THE LATTER PART OF THE AFTN. INTRODUCED PREVAILING TSRA BETWEEN
18-19Z FOR ALL TERMINALS...AND CONTINUED PRECIP THROUGH LATE TUE NIGHT
WITH A LIKELY CONTINUATION OF OFF- AND-ON SHOWER AND STORMS ACTIVITY
UNTIL A MORE ORGANIZED LINE OF SHOWERS/TSTORMS ALONG THE ACTUAL COLD
FRONT OVERNIGHT. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP IN CONVECTION THIS
AFTN WITH BREAKS TO VFR...THEN MVFR TO IFR OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONTAL
PRECIP MOVES ACROSS THE TERMINALS. MAY NEED TO INCLUDE WIND SHEAR IN
THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE FOR TUE NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE LOCAL WATERS FROM THE WEST TODAY
AND TONIGHT...PRECEDED BY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
CONTINUED WITH EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES WITH SOUTH WINDS 15-20
KTS THIS MORNING...THEN ADVISORY CONDITIONS TONIGHT OVER THE
OFFSHORE WATERS WITH WINDS NEAR 20 KTS. STRONG WIND GUSTS CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE
THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE GULF
REGION THURSDAY TRAILING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH OFFSHORE FLOW
EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS WILL RELAX WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER
COMBINED SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED INTO THE WEEKEND DUE TO
EASTERLY SWELLS FROM DISTANT HURRICANE GONZALO.
RIP CURRENTS: A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED TODAY
DUE TO INCREASED SOUTH FLOW 15-20 KTS AND A CONTINUATION OF LONG
PERIOD EAST SWELLS OF 2 FT WITH 10-11 SECOND PERIODS. A LOW RISK
IS ANTICIPATED FOR WED AT THIS TIME DUE TO OFFSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPING...HOWEVER EAST SWELLS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. RH`S WILL FALL INTO THE 30`S. INCREASED TRANPORT WINDS AND
MIXING HEIGHTS WILL ALSO PRODUCE HIGH DISPERION INDICES WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. NO RED FLAG HEADLINES NEEDED.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES MAY BE CHALLENGED THIS MORNING.
BELOW ARE RECORD HIGH MIN TEMPS FOR OCTOBER 14TH:
SITE VALUE/YEAR
JAX 76/1912
GNV 74/1912
AMG 72/1995
SSI 75/1986
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 81 65 76 55 / 90 80 20 0
SSI 81 70 77 60 / 80 80 70 0
JAX 87 70 80 57 / 80 80 60 0
SGJ 86 72 80 60 / 80 70 60 10
GNV 86 69 79 57 / 80 80 40 0
OCF 88 70 81 58 / 80 80 50 0
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20
NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20
NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM
TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.
&&
$$
ENYEDI/ZIBURA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
231 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014
.EARLY MORNING UPDATE...
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LINE OF STORMS APPROACHING THE NW GA
STATE LINE IS WEAKENING DUE TO LACK OF INSTABILITY AND EXPECT THIS
TREND TO CONTINUE. THEREFORE... HAVE REMOVED HEARD... COWETA...
FAYETTE... CLAYTON... DEKALB AND COUNTIES NORTHWARD FROM THE TOR
WATCH AS THIS THREAT HAS GREATLY DIMINISHED. WILL HOLD ONTO THE TOR
WATCH FOR CHATTAHOOCHEE... HARRIS... MERIWETHER... MUSCOGEE...
STEWART AND TROUP FOR AWHILE LONGER AS THE GREATER INSTABILITIES ARE
STILL POOLED IN THIS AREA. ALTHOUGH THE WATCH HAS BEEN DROPPED
FOR NW GA... BE ADVISED... STRONG TO POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
ARE STILL POSSIBLE AS THIS LINE OF STORMS MOVE ACROSS NW GA THIS
MORNING. /39
.UPDATE...
/ISSUED AT 1024 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2014/
THE LATEST HRRR 3KM MODEL RUN CONTINUES TO SHOW THE FIRST ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND TSTMS MOVING INTO NORTH AND WEST GA AS EARLY AS 2 AM
EDT TUE. THE MAIN SQUALL LINE NOW IN CENTRAL AL SHOULD APPROACH
THE GA STATE LINE BY 6 AM EDT MOVING ACROSS GA THROUGH THE DAY.
EXPECTED WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITH ISOLATED SEVERE TSTMS
AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS UPWARD 5 TO 10 PERCENT
TO MATCH UP BETTER WITH EXPECTED QPF AMOUNTS.
&&
16
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 810 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2014/
..SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH STRONG DAMAGING WINDS...ISOLATED
TORNADOES...AND FLASH FLOODING AS MAIN THREATS WITH TWO ROUNDS OF
STORMS EARLY MORNING TUESDAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM CONTINUES TO BE ROBUST
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST TWO WAVES OF ACTIVITY WITH THE FIRST OF TWO SQUALL LINES
MOVING IN EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH A SECONDARY LINE PUSHING
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
FOR THE FIRST WAVE...MODEL CONSENSUS PUSHES THE LINE OF STORMS
ACROSS THE GA/AL LINE BETWEEN 4 AND 6 AM. A FEW MODELS SUGGEST SOME
ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THIS FIRST SQUALL LINE COULD BEGIN AS EARLY AS 2
AM. CONFIDENCE WITH THIS ACTIVITY IS MEDIUM GIVEN QUESTIONS THAT
STILL EXIST ON THE TIMING...AVAILABLE INGREDIENTS...AND OVERALL
INTENSITY. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT CONVECTION DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTH
WILL CUT OFF THE FLOW OF NECESSARY INGREDIENTS FARTHER NORTH.
REGARDLESS...GIVEN 950 MB WINDS...AMPLE SRH...AND EVEN MODEST
CAPE...EXPECT DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES TO BE THE MAIN
CONCERNS...PARTICULARLY IN BOWING PORTIONS OF THE LINE OR IN
DISCRETE STORMS DEVELOPING OUT AHEAD OF IT. AS OF NOW SPC DOES HAVE
THE ENTIRE ARE OUTLOOKED IN A SLIGHT RISK THROUGH THE DAY.
HAVE CONTINUED WITH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS BEGINNING IN THE
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE BY 06Z AND PROGRESSING EASTWARD
THROUGH THE MORNING.
THE SECOND SQUALL LINE LOOKS TO PUSH INTO WESTERN GEORGIA BY 16-17Z
/11-12PM/ AND MOVE INTO THE ATL METRO AREA BY 2-3PM. MODELS DIFFER
SOMEWHAT ON THE LEVEL OF CLEARING BETWEEN THE TWO LINES...WITH
SEVERAL MODELS ADVERTISING ENOUGH COULD COVER AND LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO SIGNIFICANTLY LIMIT THE INSTABILITY FOR THE SECOND
SQUALL LINE. HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT AS THIS LINE
PUSHES THROUGH THE CWA DURING PRIME HEATING TIME /MID-LATE
AFTERNOON/ THAT WITH A BETTER SUPPLY OF AVAILABLE INSTABILITIES AND
INGREDIENTS...WITH RISK OF SEVERE STORMS APPEARS GREATER.
SOUTHERLY FLOW ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE LINES OF ACTIVITY WILL KEEP
THE CONVECTION FROM PROGRESSING QUICKLY. EXPECT THAT IN SLOW MOVING
STORMS WILL DUMP HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE SAME AREA...RESULTING IN
POTENTIAL FLOODING. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FOR 2 AM TUESDAY TO 2 AM WEDNESDAY FOR PORTIONS OF NW AND NORTHERN
GEORGIA. SEE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.
WINDS OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION WILL STILL REMAIN HIGH...WITH SPEEDS OF
10-15 MPH AND GUSTS TO 25 MPH.
PLEASE KEEP IN MIND THE TIMING OF THESE STORMS...PARTICULARLY THAT
MODELS SHOW SOME OF THE HIGHEST RISK DURING MORNING AND AFTERNOON
RUSH HOUR.
31
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SOME SUBTLE DISCREPANCIES LATE IN THE PERIOD TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND
THOUGH NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO CHANGE FORECAST. MADE LITTLE CHANGE
TO THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
BAKER
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF SQUALL LINE THAT
IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE ATLANTA TAF SITES BETWEEN 09-12Z THIS
MORNING. HIRES MODELS SHOW A SECOND LINE OF STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG
THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT... AND THIS LINE MAY PUSH ACROSS THE ATLANTA
TAF SITES BETWEEN 16-19Z TODAY... BUT STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON THIS
SECOND LINE AT THIS TIME. EXPECT CIGS TO OCCASIONALLY LOWER TO IFR
LEVELS WITH THE STRONGER CONVECTION... BUT MVFR CIGS SHOULD PREVAIL
UNTIL IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED TO VFR AFTER THE COLD FRONT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT WRAP AROUND CLOUDS TO SPREAD MVFR CIGS BACK INTO
THE AREA LATER TONIGHT... MAYBE AROUND 07-10Z WED. OTHERWISE...
WINDS WILL BE SSE AROUND 10G20KTS THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING...
THEN VEER SSW BY EARLY AFTERNOON... THEN WESTERLY BY LATE AFTERNOON
OR EARLY EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.
39
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
/ISSUED AT 810 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2014/
EARLY TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY QPF IS ABOVE 2 INCHES ACROSS NORTH
AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WITH 1-1.5 FROM THE SE ATL METRO
AREA THROUGH MACON...AND BELOW 1 INCH FARTHER SE. DUE TO THE
RAINFALL NORTHERN GEORGIA HAS OBSERVED OVER THE LAST WEEK...THIS
AREA IS ALREADY PRIMED FOR POSSIBLE FLOODING ISSUES. FFG IS LOWER IN
THIS AREA...AND SO HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FOR NW GEORGIA COUNTIES. SITE SPECIFIC MODELS INDICATE THAT WITH THE
FORECAST AMOUNT OF PRECIP...SEVERAL RIVERS COULD SEE BANKFULL OR
MINOR FLOODING CONDITIONS...PARTICULARLY IN THE CONASAUGA RIVER AND
LOOKOUT CREEK BASINS.
31
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 67 73 56 70 / 70 100 90 20
ATLANTA 67 74 56 69 / 100 100 40 10
BLAIRSVILLE 62 70 51 65 / 100 100 70 30
CARTERSVILLE 68 74 53 68 / 100 100 40 20
COLUMBUS 71 77 56 75 / 90 100 30 10
GAINESVILLE 66 71 55 67 / 90 100 60 30
MACON 71 78 56 77 / 70 100 60 10
ROME 68 75 52 67 / 100 100 20 20
PEACHTREE CITY 69 75 52 69 / 100 100 40 10
VIDALIA 70 82 65 78 / 20 80 80 10
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
CHATTAHOOCHEE...HARRIS... MERIWETHER... MUSCOGEE... STEWART AND
TROUP.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
BARTOW...CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...CHEROKEE...DADE...FANNIN...DAWSON...
FLOYD... GILMER... GORDON... MURRAY... LUMPKIN... PICKENS... POLK...
TOWNS... UNION... WALKER... WHITE... WHITFIELD.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 AM EDT TUESDAY THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BARTOW...CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...
CHEROKEE...DADE...FANNIN...FLOYD...GILMER...GORDON...MURRAY...
PICKENS...TOWNS...UNION...WALKER...WHITFIELD.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...16/39
LONG TERM....SNELSON
AVIATION...39
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1116 PM MDT MON OCT 13 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 127 PM MDT MON OCT 13 2014
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOWS LARGE CALE
RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE WESTERN US INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH
CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN KS. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS
BEGINNING TO BUILD INTO NORTHERN AND EASTERN COLORADO WITH A
NORTH-SOUTH PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE OVER WESTERN KS.
WINDS ALOFT ARE ALREADY SHOWING A DOWNWARD TREND...AND AS THE
SURFACE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN WINDS WILL FOLLOW SUIT. WIND
ADVISORY IS MARGINAL...HOWEVER I COULD SEE ANOTHER FEW HOURS WHERE
GUSTS WILL BE AROUND 45 MPH. IT IS CLOSE ENOUGH THAT I DIDNT WANT
TO EXPIRE THE ADVISORY EARLY...SO WILL ALLOW THE ADVISORY TO
CONTINUE UNTIL WE SEE A MUCH MORE DEFINITE DOWNWARD TREND IN WIND
SPEEDS.
WITH CLEAR SKIES...DECREASING WINDS...AND LOW TD VALUES IN THE MID
20S TO LOW 30S WE WILL SEE VERY GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT. AIR MARI MASS MAY BEGIN TO MODERATE SOME
ALOFT...HOWEVER WE WILL STILL SEE OVERNIGHT LOWS AT LEAST IN THE
MIDDLE 30S. RIVER VALLEYS AND OTHER LOW LYING/SHELTERED LOCATIONS
WILL LIKELY SEE FROST...AND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR TEMPS TO BE
EVEN COOLER THAN EXPECTED I DECIDED TO ISSUE FROST ADVISORY 06Z-
15Z TUE.
TUESDAY...WITH STRONG RIDGING ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY...AND AIR
MASS WILL SLOWLY MODERATE. HIGHS SHOULD BE SEASONAL WITH VALUES IN
THE UPPER 60S (POSSIBLY LOWER 70S).
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 157 PM MDT MON OCT 13 2014
FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST...A RATHER BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN SETS UP
IN THE FORM OF A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES. TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO BE
ABOVE NORMAL. A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY...LEAVING SLIGHTLY COOLER YET MARGINALLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN ITS WAKE. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED.
AS FOR PRECIPITATION...A DRY FORECAST HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA. THE CURRENT GFS RUN AND THE PREVIOUS EUROPEAN MODEL
INDICATED A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH ON SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM
WAS PROJECTED TO BRING SOME SHOWERS...POSSIBLY A STORM OR TWO...TO
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70. THE CURRENT EUROPEAN MODEL RUN HAS
BACKED OFF THAT SOLUTION AND...IN AGREEMENT WITH THE CANADIAN
MODEL...HOLDS THE DISTURBANCE UP IN THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.
IN COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES...DECIDED TO PULL
INITIALIZED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1113 PM MDT MON OCT 13 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KGLD AND KMCK FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IN RESPONSE TO HIGH PRESSURE AND SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION. LIGHT
NORTHWEST WIND WILL BECOME VARIABLE IN DIRECTION TUESDAY EVENING.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MDT /10 AM CDT/ TUESDAY FOR KSZ001>003-
013-014-027-028-041-042.
CO...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MDT TUESDAY FOR COZ090>092.
NE...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MDT /10 AM CDT/ TUESDAY FOR NEZ079>081.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...FS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
429 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 428 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW DEEP UPR TROF OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS...WITH CLOSED LO MOVING SLOWLY ENEWD THRU SE IOWA.
WELL DEFINED AREA OF COLDER CLD TOPS IN THE COMMA HEAD OF THE CLOUD
LEAF ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS PRESENT OVER WI AND UPR MI.
COMBINATION OF DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC...VIGOROUS UPR DVGC IN RRQ OF
H3 JET STREAK IN NW ONTARIO AND IN EXIT REGION OF ANOTHER JET STREAK
MOVING N THRU THE MS RIVER VALLEY ARND THE CLOSED LO AND VERY MOIST
AIR WITH 00Z PWAT AS HI AS 1.30 INCH AT GRB /ABOUT 225 PCT OF
NORMAL/ IS RESULTING IN WDSPRD RA OVER THE CWA. THE RA IS HEAVIEST
OVER THE ERN CWA WHERE THE H85 ISOTHERMS ARE MOST CLOSELY PACKED IN
PRESENCE OF SHARP H85-7 FGEN AND SFC-H7 MSTR CNVGC IS MOST
PRONOUNCED NEAR THIS FRONTAL ZN. RADARS TO THE S INDICATE A HINT OF
A DRY SLOT IS MOVING N THRU ERN WI...WITH PCPN THERE TAKING ON A
MORE SHOWERY LOOK. MUCH DRIER MID LVL AIR SHOWN ON THE 00Z INL RAOB
IS KEEPING FAR WRN LK SUP DRY.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS THRU TNGT WL BE FOCUSED ON PCPN COVERAGE AND
AMOUNTS ASSOCIATED WITH CLOSED LO THAT IS FCST TO MOVE TO NEAR
CHICAGO BY 12Z WED.
TODAY...CLOSED LO IS FCST TO DRIFT ONLY SLOWLY TO THE E INTO
NCENTRAL IL BY 00Z WED...WITH DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC MAINTAINED OVER
ALL OF UPR MI EXCEPT FOR THE FAR W...WHERE MODELS INDICATE MORE
AGGRESSIVE LO-MID LVL DRYING WL RESULT IN LARGER SCALE QVECTOR DVGC
BY THE AFTN. AT THE SAME TIME...THE UPR JET STREAK OVER NW ONTARIO
IS FCST TO DRIFT TO THE NE AND OVER JAMES BAY TOWARD 00Z. WHILE THIS
SHIFT WL RESULT IN DIMINISHING UPR DVGC...MOVEMENT OF JET STREAK ON
THE ERN FLANK OF THE CLOSED LO INTO LOWER MI WL LIKELY MAINTAIN SOME
GREATER UPR DVGC OVER THE E HALF OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY LATER IN
THE DAY. AXIS OF SHARPEST H85-7 FGEN/SFC-7 MSTR CNVGC IS ALSO FCST
TO SHIFT TO THE NE THIS MRNG AND GIVE WAY TO SOME H85-7 DRYING. THE
RESULT OF THESE SHIFTS IN DYNAMIC SUPPORT...ALONG WITH SOME DRYING
MOVING IN FM THE S THIS MRNG AND FROM THE W THRU THE DAY SHOULD BE A
DIMINISHING TREND IN THE RA COVERAGE/AMOUNTS. BUT PERSISTENCE OF
DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC OVER ALL BUT THE FAR W AND COVERAGE OF PCPN
UNDER THE COMMA HEAD FEATURE WELL UPSTREAM THRU WI AND INTO SE MN
EARLY THIS MRNG SHOULD MAINTAIN AT LEAST SCT-NMRS SHOWERS OVER THE E
HALF. CONSIDERING THE WELL DEFINED COMMA CLD AND FCST LINGERING DEEP
LYR QVECTOR CNVGC AS WELL AS THE SLOWLY FCST VEERING H85 WINDS...
SUSPECT THE MODELS MAY BE A BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE ON THE MID LVL
DRYING...AT LEAST OVER THE CENTRAL AND E. SO TENDED TO SLOW THE
DRYING TREND A BIT FM THE W. BUT THERE STILL COULD BE SOME AFTN
SUNSHINE OVER THE W...WHICH WL BOOST TEMPS A FEW DEGREES. THERE IS
LIKELY TO BE A RESURGENCE IN THE POPS ESPECIALLY OVER THE SCENTRAL
AND E LATER IN THE DAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF MORE UPR DVGC IN THE LEFT
EXIT REGION IN THE UPR JET MOVING INTO LOWER MI AS WELL AS ANOTHER
AREA OF SHARPER H85-7 FGEN SHOWN BY SOME OF THE GUIDANCE.
TNGT...BULK OF THE MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE WDSPRD RA
MAY IMPACT THE CENTRAL AND ERN CWA INTO THE EARLY MRNG HRS UNDER
PERSISTENT DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC AND UNDER AREA OF UPR DVGC IN LEFT
EXIT OF JET STREAK SHIFTING SLOWLY TO THE E THRU LOWER MI TO THE NE
OF CLOSED LO FCST TO DRIFT SLOWLY ENE TOWARD SRN LK MI. THE PCPN
LOOKS TO BE A BIT HEAVIER IN THE EVNG OVER THE SCENTRAL CWA WHERE
AXIS OF SHARPER H85-7 FGEN IS FCST TO ACCOMPANY THIS HIER LVL
SUPPORT. OTRW...INCRSG NNE WINDS TDAY THRU TNGT WL CAUSE WAVE HGTS
TO BUILD SUFFICIENTLY TO PERHAPS CAUSE SOME MINOR BEACH EROSION
ALONG THE SHORES OF MQT AND ALGER COUNTIES.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014
THE FORECAST FOR WED-WED NIGHT IS COMPLICATED BY SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER IL/IN.
ADDITIONALLY...DETERMINING WHERE AND HOW MUCH PRECIP IS COMPLICATED
BY A SHARP MOISTURE CUTOFF TO VERY DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A RIDGE
AXIS JUST NW OF THE CWA. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP FAR NWRN UPPER MI DRY
AS MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS TO BE THE CASE...BUT HAVE MINIMAL
CONFIDENCE IN EXACT PRECIP AMOUNTS AND LOCATIONS OF GREATEST PRECIP.
LACK OF CONFIDENCE CONTINUES THU AND THU NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW
MERGES WITH A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SRN CANADA. MODELS SHOW A CLOSED
LOW DEVELOPING OVER OR NEAR THE CWA FRI AS A RESULT OF THE MERGER.
UNCERTAINTY COMES FROM MODEL TO MODEL DISAGREEMENT AND RUN TO RUN
DISCONTINUITY ON WHERE THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY TRACKS BEFORE/DURING
THE MERGER. THE 12Z/13 ECMWF BRINGS THE REMNANTS OF THE LOW
CURRENTLY OVER IL ACROSS THE CWA...WHILE THE 00Z/14 GFS MOVES THE
REMNANTS WELL E AND THEN N OF THE CWA. THUS...THE ECMWF HAS LIGHT
RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA ON THU AND THU NIGHT...WHILE THE GFS HAS
ALMOST THE ENTIRE CWA DRY. THE GFS ALSO HAS BACKING FROM THE 00Z/14
NAM AND 12Z/13 GLOBAL GEM. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD CHANCES OF PRECIP
OVER THE ERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA AND SLIGHT CHANCES ELSEWHERE.
GIVEN CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE BEING MUCH DRIER THAN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...DECIDED TO CUT POPS BACK SOME ON THU.
IT DOES LOOK LIKE A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THU NIGHT OR EARLY
FRI...WITH A REINFORCING COLD FRONT LATE FRI OR FRI NIGHT. AT THIS
POINT...CONFIDENCE ACTUALLY INCREASES AS WNW-NW LOW LEVEL FLOW AND
GREATER LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW
WILL LEAD TO LAKE EFFECT PRECIP FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT.
FOR SUN AND MON...MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH WILL MOVE
FAR ENOUGH E TO LIMIT PRECIP CHANCES. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL WITH CONTINUED N-NW FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014
WIDESPREAD RAINS CONTINUE OVER THE REGION WITH CIGS MOSTLY IFR/LIFR
WITH THE NOTABLE EXCEPTION AT KCMX. CIGS THERE HAVE VARIED
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE EVENING FROM IFR TO VFR DUE TO SOME DRIER AIR
INTRUSION ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER AS DEPICTED BY UPSTREAM 0Z
SOUNDINGS. CIGS SHOULD RETURN TO LOW END MVFR AS RAINS CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT. WHILE IFR CIGS A POSSIBILITY AT KCMX...HAVE LEFT
OUT FOR NOW AS SFC WINDS NOT AS FAVORABLE FOR LOW CIGS AS AN
EASTERLY FLOW. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AS THE RAINS END FROM WEST TO
EAST TODAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. WITH UPSLOPE
FLOW PERSISTING LONGEST AT KSAW...THAT SITE TO STAY IN IFR/LIFR THE
LONGEST OF THE THREE SITES. KSAW TO SEE GUSTY WINDS UP TO 22 KTS
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO BE A BIT
STRONGER THERE THAN OVER THE WEST. KSAW MAY ALSO SEE RETURN OF
SHOWER ACTIVITY LATE IN THE DAY BUT MOST OF THIS PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE CONCENTRATED FURTHER EAST WHERE BETTER FORCING TO EXIST
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 428 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014
EXPECT INCREASING NNE WINDS UP TO 30 KTS OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAKE
INTO TONIGHT UNDER TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT TO THE N OF DEEP LO PRES
MOVING TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THERE
COULD BE SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS...ESPECIALLY AT THE HIER PLATFORMS.
AS THE LO TO THE S SLOWLY WEAKENS LATER TONIGHT/WED AND A HI PRES
RIDGE DRIFTS OVER THE UPPER LAKES LATER ON WED...EXPECT WINDS TO
STEADILY DIMINISH UNDER 15 KTS ON WED NIGHT. RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS
WILL THEN PERSIST INTO FRI BEFORE A LO PRES IF FORECAST TO DEVELOP
AND DEEPEN NEAR JAMES BAY. A SHARPENING PRES GRADIENT AROUND THIS
FEATURE WILL BRING INCREASING NW WINDS...WHICH COULD REACH GALE
FORCE ON SAT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...RJT
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
418 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 429 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A SHARP TROF ACROSS THE
CNTRL CONUS WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE IN THE BASE OF THE TROF
BECOMING INCREASINGLY SEPARATED FROM THE FLOW IN THE NRN PORTION OF
THE TROF. THE SHARP TROF HAS TAPPED ABUNDANT MOISTURE AS ANALYSIS OF
12Z RAOBS SHOWED PRECIPITABLE WATER UP TO AROUND 1 INCH ACROSS UPPER
MI WHICH IS 175-200PCT OF NORMAL. RESULT HAS BEEN LOW CLOUDS
DOMINATING THIS AFTN. SOME -DZ/-SHRA/SPRINKLES EARLIER TODAY HAVE
ENDED...AND SO FAR THE AFTN HAS BEEN DRY.
TONIGHT INTO TUE...FLOW IN THE UPSTREAM TROF WILL CONTINUE TO
SEPARATE WHICH RESULTS IN THE SRN PORTION DEVELOPING INTO A CLOSED
LOW OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS THE NRN PORTION
SEPARATES...A WELL-DEFINED JET STREAK WILL DEVELOP FROM NRN ONTARIO
INTO QUEBEC TONIGHT...PLACING THE UPPER LAKES UNDER HEALTHY UPPER
DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF JET. DOWN BELOW...A RIBBON OF
STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS DEVELOPS ACROSS THE FCST AREA.
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASING UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES (NEAR
250PCT OF NORMAL) ACROSS THE FAR SE FCST AREA NEAR LAKE MI...STRONG
UPPER DIVERGENCE/FRONTOGENESIS SHOULD RESULT IN A SOLID AREA OF MDT
TO LOCALLY HVY RAINFALL SPREADING NNE ACROSS ROUGHLY THE E HALF OF
THE FCST AREA TONIGHT. BULK OF PCPN FALLS TONIGHT...BUT INCLUDING
LINGERING PCPN TUE...EXPECT PCPN AMOUNTS OF 1 INCH OR MORE FROM
MARQUETTE/DICKINSON COUNTIES EASTWARD WITH TOTALS OF 1.5 TO PERHAPS
2 INCHES TOWARD LAKE MICHIGAN. TYPICAL FOR THESE TYPE OF PCPN EVENTS
WHICH HAVE A STRONG FRONTOGENESIS COMPONENENT...THERE SHOULD BE A
FAIRLY SHARP W EDGE TO THE PCPN AREA. EXAMINATION OF THE NUMEROUS
AVBL MODELS INDICATES THAT THE WRN EDGE OF THE PCPN AREA WILL
PROBABLY BE JUST W OF UPPER MI. SO...WHILE PCPN AMOUNTS WILL TAIL
OFF QUICKLY WESTWARD...LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS WILL BE CARRIED TO
THE WRN EDGE OF UPPER MI.
WITH UPPER JET ACROSS NRN ONTARIO SHIFTING E ALONG WITH THE RIBBON
OF STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS...PCPN WILL DIMINISH FROM W TO
E TUE MORNING AND WILL END OVER THE W. HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER FORCING
REMAINS OVER MUCH OF UPPER MI THRU THE DAY...SO PLAN TO MAINTAIN A
MENTION OF PCPN THRU THE AFTN OVER THE CNTRL AND E...WITH HIGHEST
POPS TOWARD LAKE MI. AN UPPER JET STREAK ON THE E SIDE OF THE MID
LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL BE ALIGNED
FROM INDIANA UP LAKE MI/WRN LWR MI BY LATE IN THE DAY. UPPER
DIVERGENCE IN THE LEFT EXIT OF THIS JET STREAK WILL LIKELY SUPPORT
ANOTHER AREA OF PCPN THAT MAY BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO SRN PORTIONS OF
UPPER MI LATE IN THE DAY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014
THE FORECAST FOR WED-WED NIGHT IS COMPLICATED BY SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER IL/IN.
ADDITIONALLY...DETERMINING WHERE AND HOW MUCH PRECIP IS COMPLICATED
BY A SHARP MOISTURE CUTOFF TO VERY DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A RIDGE
AXIS JUST NW OF THE CWA. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP FAR NWRN UPPER MI DRY
AS MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS TO BE THE CASE...BUT HAVE MINIMAL
CONFIDENCE IN EXACT PRECIP AMOUNTS AND LOCATIONS OF GREATEST PRECIP.
LACK OF CONFIDENCE CONTINUES THU AND THU NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW
MERGES WITH A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SRN CANADA. MODELS SHOW A CLOSED
LOW DEVELOPING OVER OR NEAR THE CWA FRI AS A RESULT OF THE MERGER.
UNCERTAINTY COMES FROM MODEL TO MODEL DISAGREEMENT AND RUN TO RUN
DISCONTINUITY ON WHERE THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY TRACKS BEFORE/DURING
THE MERGER. THE 12Z/13 ECMWF BRINGS THE REMNANTS OF THE LOW
CURRENTLY OVER IL ACROSS THE CWA...WHILE THE 00Z/14 GFS MOVES THE
REMNANTS WELL E AND THEN N OF THE CWA. THUS...THE ECMWF HAS LIGHT
RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA ON THU AND THU NIGHT...WHILE THE GFS HAS
ALMOST THE ENTIRE CWA DRY. THE GFS ALSO HAS BACKING FROM THE 00Z/14
NAM AND 12Z/13 GLOBAL GEM. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD CHANCES OF PRECIP
OVER THE ERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA AND SLIGHT CHANCES ELSEWHERE.
GIVEN CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE BEING MUCH DRIER THAN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...DECIDED TO CUT POPS BACK SOME ON THU.
IT DOES LOOK LIKE A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THU NIGHT OR EARLY
FRI...WITH A REINFORCING COLD FRONT LATE FRI OR FRI NIGHT. AT THIS
POINT...CONFIDENCE ACTUALLY INCREASES AS WNW-NW LOW LEVEL FLOW AND
GREATER LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW
WILL LEAD TO LAKE EFFECT PRECIP FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT.
FOR SUN AND MON...MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH WILL MOVE
FAR ENOUGH E TO LIMIT PRECIP CHANCES. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL WITH CONTINUED N-NW FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014
WIDESPREAD RAINS CONTINUE OVER THE REGION WITH CIGS MOSTLY IFR/LIFR
WITH THE NOTABLE EXCEPTION AT KCMX. CIGS THERE HAVE VARIED
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE EVENING FROM IFR TO VFR DUE TO SOME DRIER AIR
INTRUSION ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER AS DEPICTED BY UPSTREAM 0Z
SOUNDINGS. CIGS SHOULD RETURN TO LOW END MVFR AS RAINS CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT. WHILE IFR CIGS A POSSIBILITY AT KCMX...HAVE LEFT
OUT FOR NOW AS SFC WINDS NOT AS FAVORABLE FOR LOW CIGS AS AN
EASTERLY FLOW. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AS THE RAINS END FROM WEST TO
EAST TODAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. WITH UPSLOPE
FLOW PERSISTING LONGEST AT KSAW...THAT SITE TO STAY IN IFR/LIFR THE
LONGEST OF THE THREE SITES. KSAW TO SEE GUSTY WINDS UP TO 22 KTS
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO BE A BIT
STRONGER THERE THAN OVER THE WEST. KSAW MAY ALSO SEE RETURN OF
SHOWER ACTIVITY LATE IN THE DAY BUT MOST OF THIS PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE CONCENTRATED FURTHER EAST WHERE BETTER FORCING TO EXIST
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 429 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2014
WEAK PRES GRADIENT AND LIGHT WINDS MOSTLY UNDER 10KT WILL BE THE
RULE INITIALLY TONIGHT. THEN...AS LOW PRESSURE OVER SW MISSOURI
SLOWLY LIFTS NE...N TO NE WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE.
EXPECT N TO NE WINDS UP TO 20KT ON WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND UP TO 25KT
ON ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THE LOW WILL THEN WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS NE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WED/THU...ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH.
WINDS SHOULD BE UNDER 10KT BY THU. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKING ACROSS SRN CANADA THU WILL THEN MERGE WITH THE REMNANT
GREAT LAKES LOW ON FRI IN THE VICINITY OF JAMES BAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN W TO NW WINDS INCREASING INTO THE 15-25KT RANGE ON FRI AND
CONTINUING INTO SAT AS THE LOW MOVES LITTLE.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...RJT
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
123 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 429 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A SHARP TROF ACROSS THE
CNTRL CONUS WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE IN THE BASE OF THE TROF
BECOMING INCREASINGLY SEPARATED FROM THE FLOW IN THE NRN PORTION OF
THE TROF. THE SHARP TROF HAS TAPPED ABUNDANT MOISTURE AS ANALYSIS OF
12Z RAOBS SHOWED PRECIPITABLE WATER UP TO AROUND 1 INCH ACROSS UPPER
MI WHICH IS 175-200PCT OF NORMAL. RESULT HAS BEEN LOW CLOUDS
DOMINATING THIS AFTN. SOME -DZ/-SHRA/SPRINKLES EARLIER TODAY HAVE
ENDED...AND SO FAR THE AFTN HAS BEEN DRY.
TONIGHT INTO TUE...FLOW IN THE UPSTREAM TROF WILL CONTINUE TO
SEPARATE WHICH RESULTS IN THE SRN PORTION DEVELOPING INTO A CLOSED
LOW OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS THE NRN PORTION
SEPARATES...A WELL-DEFINED JET STREAK WILL DEVELOP FROM NRN ONTARIO
INTO QUEBEC TONIGHT...PLACING THE UPPER LAKES UNDER HEALTHY UPPER
DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF JET. DOWN BELOW...A RIBBON OF
STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS DEVELOPS ACROSS THE FCST AREA.
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASING UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES (NEAR
250PCT OF NORMAL) ACROSS THE FAR SE FCST AREA NEAR LAKE MI...STRONG
UPPER DIVERGENCE/FRONTOGENESIS SHOULD RESULT IN A SOLID AREA OF MDT
TO LOCALLY HVY RAINFALL SPREADING NNE ACROSS ROUGHLY THE E HALF OF
THE FCST AREA TONIGHT. BULK OF PCPN FALLS TONIGHT...BUT INCLUDING
LINGERING PCPN TUE...EXPECT PCPN AMOUNTS OF 1 INCH OR MORE FROM
MARQUETTE/DICKINSON COUNTIES EASTWARD WITH TOTALS OF 1.5 TO PERHAPS
2 INCHES TOWARD LAKE MICHIGAN. TYPICAL FOR THESE TYPE OF PCPN EVENTS
WHICH HAVE A STRONG FRONTOGENESIS COMPONENENT...THERE SHOULD BE A
FAIRLY SHARP W EDGE TO THE PCPN AREA. EXAMINATION OF THE NUMEROUS
AVBL MODELS INDICATES THAT THE WRN EDGE OF THE PCPN AREA WILL
PROBABLY BE JUST W OF UPPER MI. SO...WHILE PCPN AMOUNTS WILL TAIL
OFF QUICKLY WESTWARD...LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS WILL BE CARRIED TO
THE WRN EDGE OF UPPER MI.
WITH UPPER JET ACROSS NRN ONTARIO SHIFTING E ALONG WITH THE RIBBON
OF STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS...PCPN WILL DIMINISH FROM W TO
E TUE MORNING AND WILL END OVER THE W. HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER FORCING
REMAINS OVER MUCH OF UPPER MI THRU THE DAY...SO PLAN TO MAINTAIN A
MENTION OF PCPN THRU THE AFTN OVER THE CNTRL AND E...WITH HIGHEST
POPS TOWARD LAKE MI. AN UPPER JET STREAK ON THE E SIDE OF THE MID
LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL BE ALIGNED
FROM INDIANA UP LAKE MI/WRN LWR MI BY LATE IN THE DAY. UPPER
DIVERGENCE IN THE LEFT EXIT OF THIS JET STREAK WILL LIKELY SUPPORT
ANOTHER AREA OF PCPN THAT MAY BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO SRN PORTIONS OF
UPPER MI LATE IN THE DAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2014
TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU...AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW WOBBLES
THROUGH ILLINOIS...THE 12Z GFS AND ESPECIALLY THE 12Z ECMWF HAVE
TRENDED FARTHER TO THE NORTHWEST WITH THE STRONGER 700-300 MB
QVECTOR CONV AHEAD OF A SHRTWV ON THE NRN FLANK OF THE LOW WHILE THE
NAM WAS AN OUTLIER IN KEEPING MOST OF THE CWA DRY. EVEN THOUGH THERE
IS LINGERING UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM...MODELS
CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THAT HIGHER POPS AND QPF ARE WARRANTED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EAST. RAIN CHANCES WILL ALSO LINGER INTO WED NIGHT AND
THU ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF THE CWA AS THE ECMWF/GFS REMAIN FAR
ENOUGH TO THE WEST SO THAT ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE
LOW BRING POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF LIGHT SHOWERS.
THU NIGHT INTO SAT...WITH AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN DEVELOPING...THE WPC
PREFERRED ECMWF SUGGESTS THAT THE WRN RIDGE WILL ALLOW THE NRN
PLAINS TROUGH TO MERGE WITH THE GREAT LAKES LOW AND PERSIST INTO
SATURDAY. AS THE SFC LOW MOVES INTO NE ONTARIO TO NEAR JAMES BAY NW
WINDS AND CAA WILL TAKE OVER BRINGING IN COOLER AIR AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AS DEEPER MOISTURE PREVAILS. ENOUGH COLD AIR
WILL MOVE IN BY FRI NIGHT INTO SAT FOR LAKE ENHANCED RAIN POTENTIAL
FOR LOCATIONS FAVORED BY NW OR NNW FLOW.
SUN-MON...THE GFS/GEFS/ECMWF SUGGEST THAT THE TROUGH WILL SLIDE FAR
ENOUGH EAST TO REDUCE RAIN CHANCES WHILE NNW MID LEVEL LOW LINGERS.
TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014
WIDESPREAD RAINS CONTINUE OVER THE REGION WITH CIGS MOSTLY IFR/LIFR
WITH THE NOTABLE EXCEPTION AT KCMX. CIGS THERE HAVE VARIED
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE EVENING FROM IFR TO VFR DUE TO SOME DRIER AIR
INTRUSION ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER AS DEPICTED BY UPSTREAM 0Z
SOUNDINGS. CIGS SHOULD RETURN TO LOW END MVFR AS RAINS CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT. WHILE IFR CIGS A POSSIBILITY AT KCMX...HAVE LEFT
OUT FOR NOW AS SFC WINDS NOT AS FAVORABLE FOR LOW CIGS AS AN
EASTERLY FLOW. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AS THE RAINS END FROM WEST TO
EAST TODAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. WITH UPSLOPE
FLOW PERSISTING LONGEST AT KSAW...THAT SITE TO STAY IN IFR/LIFR THE
LONGEST OF THE THREE SITES. KSAW TO SEE GUSTY WINDS UP TO 22 KTS
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO BE A BIT
STRONGER THERE THAN OVER THE WEST. KSAW MAY ALSO SEE RETURN OF
SHOWER ACTIVITY LATE IN THE DAY BUT MOST OF THIS PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE CONCENTRATED FURTHER EAST WHERE BETTER FORCING TO EXIST
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 429 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2014
WEAK PRES GRADIENT AND LIGHT WINDS MOSTLY UNDER 10KT WILL BE THE
RULE INITIALLY TONIGHT. THEN...AS LOW PRESSURE OVER SW MISSOURI
SLOWLY LIFTS NE...N TO NE WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE.
EXPECT N TO NE WINDS UP TO 20KT ON WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND UP TO 25KT
ON ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THE LOW WILL THEN WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS NE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WED/THU...ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH.
WINDS SHOULD BE UNDER 10KT BY THU. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKING ACROSS SRN CANADA THU WILL THEN MERGE WITH THE REMNANT
GREAT LAKES LOW ON FRI IN THE VICINITY OF JAMES BAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN W TO NW WINDS INCREASING INTO THE 15-25KT RANGE ON FRI AND
CONTINUING INTO SAT AS THE LOW MOVES LITTLE.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...RJT
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1207 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2014
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE OVER MISSOURI MOVES SLOWLY NORTHEAST THEN STALLS
OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL ARE ALSO POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN STALLED OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
BUT IT WILL REMAIN MILD THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S. A COOL DOWN IS ANTICIPATED FOR SATURDAY.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 605 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2014
I HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY LOWERED THE CHANCE OF RAIN TONIGHT ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THROUGH MIDNIGHT. I ALSO EXPUNGED
THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT FROM THE FORECAST TONIGHT. TO KEEP ALL OF
THE FORECAST DETAILS IN SYNC I ALSO LOWERED THE QPF SIGNIFICANTLY
TONIGHT AND FOR THAT MATTER TUESDAY. THE UPDATED FORECAST DOES
MATCH NICELY WITH THE LATEST FORECASTS FROM NEAR BY OFFICES
THROUGH TUESDAY.
MY MOTIVATION FOR DOING ALL THIS UPDATING IS THERE IS A 65 KNOT
LOW LEVEL JET HEADING DUE NORTH TOWARD MKE CURRENTLY. WITH SUCH A
STRONG JET GOING SO FAR WEST OF LOWER MICHIGAN... IT IS KEEPING
THE DECENT MOISTURE FLUX OUT OF THIS AREA. THAT IDEA IS SHOWN
NICELY WITH THE RAP 21Z 1000/850 MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS. THE
BOTTOM LINE IS MOST OF THE RAIN WILL MISS SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN
THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT. WE COULD SEE A FEW STRAY SHOWERS OF
COURSE BUT I DO BELIEVE MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHT TOO.
IT DOES LOOK LIKE A SECOND LOW LEVEL JET IS AIMED AS SOUTH CENTRAL
LOWER MICHIGAN TUESDAY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS... SO WE WILL LIKELY
STILL SEE SOME RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT NOT NEARLY AS MUCH WAS WE
WERE THINKING EARLIER.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2014
THE BULK OF THE STORM TOTAL RAIN FROM THIS EVENT FOR SW LWR MI
APPEARS TO OCCUR ON TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW DRAWS CLOSER AND THE
OCCLUSION IMPACTS THE AREA.
MODEL TREND OVER THE LAST TWO RUNS HAS BEEN TO LIFT THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL TONIGHT WITHIN THE TROWAL FARTHER NORTHWEST WHICH
ESSENTIALLY MEANS IT MISSES MOST OF THE CWFA WITH PERHAPS THE
EXCEPTION OF LUDINGTON.
IN FACT MOST MODEL STORM TOTAL RAINFALL SOLUTIONS ACTUALLY SHOW MUCH
OF SW LWR MI IN A RELATIVE MINIMUM AREA OF QPF IN BETWEEN THE
DEFORMATION ZONE TO THE NORTHWEST AND THE STRONG CONVECTION AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT TO THE SOUTH.
THAT SAID...WE SHOULD STILL SEE WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS NEAR AN INCH WITH
LOCALLY AS MUCH AS TWO INCHES. THIS SHOULD NOT CAUSE TOO MUCH OF
A PROBLEM ALTHOUGH WHERE HEAVY RAIN PERSISTS SOME PONDING OF WATER IS
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WHERE LEAVES CLOG STORM DRAINS.
AS FAR AS THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT... THERE IS PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR AVAILABLE BUT INSTABILITY IS LIMITED WITH GENERALLY 500 J/KG
OR LESS OF MU CAPE AVAILABLE. THE COVERAGE OF STORMS SHOULD BE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TONIGHT AND TUES. THE THING TO WATCH WILL BE
THE 60 KNOT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET WHICH COMES IN TONIGHT. THIS
COULD LEAD TO SOME RATHER GUSTY SOUTH TO NORTH MOVING SHOWERS IN THE
WARM SECTOR.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2014
MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED AS A SLOW MOVING
UPPER LOW JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES MERGES WITH A DIGGING
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH BEFORE IT FINALLY MOVES EAST. CYCLONIC FLOW
AND SOME LAKE CONTRIBUTION OF MOISTURE SUPPORTS KEEPING CHANCE OR
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING FOR EACH PERIOD FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. SHORTWAVE RIDGING ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY SHOULD
FINALLY DRY THINGS OUT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MODERATED BY THE
CONTINUOUS CLOUD COVER UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WHEN
CLEARING WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE 30S IN MOST PLACES.
THE FLOW BECOMES HIGHLY AMPLIFIED EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A DEEP TROUGH
AXIS OVER THE NE CONUS AND A SHARP RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS. THERE
COULD BE SOME SHOWERS ON MONDAY AS A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DIGS SOUTH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...BUT THE MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW A LOT OF DRY AIR AT MID LEVELS...SO WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1208 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014
THE MAIN CHANGE TO THE TAFS WILL BE TO PUSH THE IFR CIGS BACK A
FEW HOURS. LATEST NEPH ANALYSIS SHOWS VFR CIGS EXTENDING SW INTO
ILLINOIS INTERSPERSED WITH SOME MVFR CIGS. THERE IS A BAND OF
HEAVIER SHOWERS MOVING NORTH FROM INDIANA AND IT/S POSSIBLE WE
COULD SEE BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. HOWEVER...THE
MAIN AREA OF IFR...STILL BACK IN MISSOURI... SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL
LATE TONIGHT...CLOSER TO MORNING. THEN GRADUALLY BECOMING MVFR
AFTER 18Z.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2014
WHILE THE WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
COMES INTO THE AREA... THE SFC WINDS WILL HAVE A BIT OF AN OFFSHORE
COMPONENT. THIS WILL KEEP THE WAVE HEIGHTS DOWN NEAR THE COAST BUT
DESPITE THAT THE WIND SPEEDS ALONE MAY BECOME SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO
WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LATER TONIGHT. WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW.
WEB CAMS SHOW THAT FOG IS NOT A MAJOR ISSUE ALONG THE SW LWR MI
COASTLINE AND WITH THE WINDS INCREASING TONIGHT SEE NO NEED FOR A
MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2014
STORM TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO BE LESS THAN PREVIOUS
THINKING. GENERALLY AROUND A HALF INCH TO 2 INCHES IS EXPECTED. MOST
LOCATIONS WILL SEE LESS THAN AN INCH AND A HALF...WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE TOWARD LUDINGTON. THE TREND IN THE 12Z MODELS IS TO
PUSH THE SLOW-MOVING DEFORMATION BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL
TO THE NORTHWEST. MOST OF THE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO FALL AFTER 00Z
TUESDAY.
RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS
COULD RISE SHARPLY ON TUESDAY. CURRENT STREAMFLOW IN THE GRAND AND
KALAMAZOO RIVER BASINS IS RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL. THERE COULD ALSO BE
BRIEF MINOR URBAN FLOODING AND PONDING OF WATER IN LOW-LYING AREAS.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WDM
SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...93
HYDROLOGY...EBW
MARINE...MEADE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
1155 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1154 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014
WE WILL BE ISSUING A DENSE FOG ADVISORY SHORTLY FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTH/NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. VISIBILITIES HAVE DROPPED TO A QUARTER
MILE OR LESS LATE THIS EVENING. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT INCREASING
WINDS AS SEEN ON THE RAP AT 0.5 KM MAY LESSEN THE FOG LATER
TONIGHT...BUT WE CAN ADJUST THE HEADLINE IF THAT DOES OCCUR.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 916 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014
RAIN HAS MOVED FURTHER NORTHWEST INTO WISCONSIN THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT...AND HAVE INCREASED POPS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014
AT 330 PM...A MIXTURE OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE CONTINUED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA. THE RAIN AT THIS POINT WAS CONFINED TO MAINLY THE
ARROWHEAD OF MN...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF RAIN SPREADING INTO NW WI
FROM THE SOUTH. DRIZZLE PREVAILED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AS WELL
AS SOME FOG. THE EXCEPTION WAS IN THE FAR WEST...WHERE THE LOW
CLOUDS HAD STARTED TO CLEAR AND THERE WAS SOME FILTERED SUNSHINE.
TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MID 40S IN THE ARROWHEAD TO THE MID
50S IN PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN WI.
THE BIG FOCUS FOR TONIGHT WILL BE THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE ILLINOIS
AREA BEFORE STALLING OUT AND EVENTUALLY MERGING WITH ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION INTO
MUCH OF NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN
COUNTIES OF OUR WISCONSIN CWA. COULD BE SOME DECENT
RAINFALL...MAINLY OVER PRICE...IRON AND SOUTHEASTERN SAWYER
COUNTIES. THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA WILL SEE A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
DRIZZLE AND RAIN...AND A DECREASE IN OVERALL CLOUDS AS WELL. LOWS
COULD REACH INTO THE MID 30S IN PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL MN. WITH
THE DAMP GROUND FROM THE RAIN AND DRIZZLE TODAY...WE COULD SEE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME ADDITIONAL FOG AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.
TUESDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A MILD DAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. WE COULD SEE HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S FOR
DAYTIME HIGHS ON TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND PROMOTE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. LEANED
ON THE COLDEST TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...AND THE
WARMER GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY. THERE ARE LOW CHANCES OF
SHOWERS OVER THE FAR SE FORECAST AREA DUE TO A STACKED LOW MOVING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO DISAPPEAR LATE THIS WEEK AS A
LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
GRADUALLY MERGES WITH THE GREAT LAKES LOW. THE TWO SYSTEMS SHOULD
MERGE OVER ONTARIO BY EARLY SATURDAY. THURSDAY WILL BE WARM AS
SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW. FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AND CLOUDIER AS THE TWO LOWS
MOVE INTO THE REGION AND MERGE. THERE WILL BE LOW CHANCES OF
SHOWERS...PRIMARILY OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN FORECAST AREA. THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...BUT GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
THE LOWEST LEVELS WILL BE TOO WARM OR THAT THE COLD SATURATED LAYER
ALOFT WILL BE TOO WARM TO SUPPORT MUCH ICE CRYSTAL DEVELOPMENT.
THEREFORE...ONLY FORECASTED RAIN SHOWERS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE NORTHLAND LATE THIS WEEKEND.
THE REGION WILL REMAIN COOL IN NW FLOW SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1154 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED NEAR THE IA/MO/IL COMMON BORDER
LATE THIS EVENING WITH RAIN EXTENDING WELL NORTH INTO NORTHERN
WISCONSIN. CONDITIONS VARIED FROM LIFR IN FOG OVER FAR NORTHERN
MINNESOTA...TO IFR OVER MUCH OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...WITH SOME VFR
IN BETWEEN. THE RAIN WILL SLOWLY DECREASE LATE TONIGHT...WITH MORE
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHLAND IN FOG. LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE COMMON OVER NORTHERN/NORTHEAST MINNESOTA
TONIGHT IN DENSE FOG.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON TUESDAY AND CAUSE THE FOG TO
DISSIPATE IN THE MORNING LEADING TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 43 59 39 58 / 10 0 0 0
INL 32 59 34 64 / 0 0 0 0
BRD 40 61 34 64 / 0 0 0 0
HYR 45 60 40 60 / 80 10 0 10
ASX 44 57 41 57 / 70 0 0 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR MNZ010-011-018-019-
025-026-033>035.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MELDE
SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...MELDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1147 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014
THE HIGH CLOUDS HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE EASTERN-SOUTHEASTERN FCST
AREA LEAVING A CLEAR SKY OVER THE FORECAST AREA. WITH A LIGHT WIND
TEMPS DROPPING BLO MOST GUIDANCE LEVELS SO LOWERED LOWS SOME IN
MOST AREAS ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES. HRRR ONLY SHOWS FOG POTENTIAL IN THE
FAR EASTERN FCST AREA WASKISH-BEMIDJI-PARK RAPIDS AREA BUT WITH
LIGHT WIND AND TEMPS COOLING TO THE DEW PTS MOST AREAS KEPT THE
PATCHY CWA WORDING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014
THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY. MODELS
ARE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT...AND NO PREFERENCE THIS AFTERNOON.
FOR TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION AND IT
SHOULD BE CLEAR. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG IN ALL
AREAS AFTER 5Z...GIVEN SOME RAIN IN THE PAST 24HR AND DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOW/MID 40S THIS AFTERNOON. WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE THREAT
FOR DENSE FOG AS WELL GIVEN THE FAIRLY HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER
DEWPOINTS/MOISTURE.
ON TUESDAY...IT WILL BE A CHAMBER OF COMMERCE DAY WITH FAIRLY
LIGHT WINDS...NEARLY FULL SUNSHINE AND TEMPS INTO THE LOW/MID 60S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014
FOR WED...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AND IT SHOULD BE
BREEZY/WINDY BY AFTERNOON FROM THE VALLEY WEST. TEMPS WILL ONCE
AGAIN WARM INTO THE LOW/MID 60S...PERHAPS NEAR 70 IN THE WEST WITH
VERY WARM AIR ALOFT. IT WILL REMAIN DRY WITH NEARLY FULL SUNSHINE
ONCE AGAIN.
ON THURSDAY...SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS NEAR WINNIPEG AND A COOL
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SWITCHING WINDS TO THE WEST BY AFTERNOON.
EVEN WITH THE COOLER AIR ALOFT MOVING IN...TEMPS WILL WARM INTO
THE 60S WITH FAVORABLE WARM WESTERLY WINDS. FOR NOT WILL KEEP IT
DRY ALTHOUGH THERE SHOULD BE SOME MORE CLOUDS AROUND.
FOR THU NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WILL START OFF WITH A BROAD 500MB LOW
NEAR THE FA THAT WILL TRACK SLOWLY EASTWARD THRU FRI NIGHT. THE 12Z
OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE IN REGARD TO THE
CORRESPONDING SFC LOW PLACEMENT SO THE PCPN FIELDS DO NOT SHOW MUCH
AGREEMENT EITHER. THEREFORE HAVE KEPT MOST OF THE FA IN A CHANCE FOR
SOME LIGHT PCPN THU NIGHT THRU FRIDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH THE BETTER
CHANCES MAY BE ACROSS NORTHWEST MN. RIDGING SLOWLY RETURNS BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPS FOR LATE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014
CLEAR SKY OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW CIRRUS MOVING IN
LATER TUESDAY. LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING TURNING
LIGHT SOUTHERLY 5-10 KTS WED AFTN IN ERN ND/WRN MN. MAIN CHALLENGE
IS FOG POTENTIAL AND LATEST SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS BEST
POTENTIAL REMAINS IN THE WASKISH-BEMIDJI-PARK RAPIDS AREAS. BUT AS
OBSERVED FROM BEMIDJI OBS IT IS A GROUND FOG SITUATION SO VSBYS
VARIABLE. KEPT TEMPO FOR SOME 2SM IN FOG AT GFK/FAR/TVF AS WELL AS
PREV FCST.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...GODON/DK
AVIATION...RIDDLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
329 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER MISSOURI WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST ACROSS LAKE
ERIE BY THURSDAY MORNING AND ON TO JAMES BAY BY FRIDAY NIGHT PULLING
A SERIES OF COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
WILL STAY OVER THE EASTERN LAKES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THE MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN SLOWLY MOVING A BAND OF SHRA/TSRA
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA TODAY INTO WED MORNING. SOME SHEAR PRESENT
BUT INSTABILITY NOT OVER GREAT. SPC KEEPING SVR THREAT SOUTH OF THE
AREA. MAY SEE SOME STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS SINCE WINDS WILL
ALREADY BE GUSTING AROUND 30 TO 35 MPH ANYWAY...BUT CURRENTLY DON`T
EXPECT SIGNIFICANT SEVERE STORMS.
THE OTHER THREAT COULD BE FROM FLOODING IF SOME OF THE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN LINGERS OVER ANY PARTICULAR AREA. IN GENERAL...LOOKING FOR .75
TO 1.5 INCHES OF RAINFALL AS THE SLOW MOVING BAND MAKES ITS WAY
ACROSS THE AREA. 3 HR FLOOD GUIDANCE RANGING BETWEEN 2 AND 3 INCHES
SO IT CURRENTLY APPEARS THAT WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE AN INCH AND
A HALF OR LESS OF RAINFALL WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOODING SO WON`T
PUT UP A FLOOD WATCH.
TODAY WILL BE THE LAST WARM DAY FOR A WHILE...MAYBE FOR THE REST OF
THE SEASON. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE 70S...RANGING FROM MOSTLY LOWER
70S IN THE WEST WHERE THE RAIN ARRIVES THIS MORNING TO THE MID TO
UPPER 70S IN THE EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE LAST OF THE SLOW MOVING BAND OF RAIN SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE CWA
DURING THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF DAYLIGHT WED MORNING. A DRIER SLOT OF
MID LEVEL AIR PUSHES ACROSS THE CWA IN THE WAKE OF THE RAIN BAND SO
EXPECT A BREAK IN THE RAINFALL FOR A WHILE. LATER IN THE DAY...SOME
DAYTIME WARMING UNDER THE UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL LIKELY
TRIGGER SOME CONVECTIVE SHRA AS THE LOWER LEVELS STILL STAY FAIRLY
MOIST. ISOLATED THUNDER MAY OCCUR BUT MOSTLY LOOKING FOR JUST SHRA
DUE TO WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER.
THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW WILL TAKE UNTIL LATE THU NIGHT TO LIFT NE
OF THE CWA SO THE AIRMASS WILL STAY UNSTABLE WITH CLOUDS AND GOOD
CHANCES FOR SHRA HANGING AROUND INTO THU NIGHT. DRIER AIR SHOULD
START PUSHING NE ACROSS THE AREA THU NIGHT INTO FRI CAUSING THE
THREAT FOR SHRA TO SHIFT INTO MAINLY THE NE BY FRI. A REINFORCING
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SE ACROSS THE AREA FRI EVENING.
MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THIS FRONT BUT WITH ADDED HELP FROM LAKE
ERIE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME SHRA IN THE NE.
TEMPS WED THRU FRI SHOULD RUN CLOSE TO NORMAL SINCE THE COLDER AIR
DOES NOT START TO ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER THE FRONT PASSES FRI NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MODELS HAVE THE SAME IDEA BUT TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE UPPER
TROF AND SURFACE FEATURES FOR THE PERIOD.
SOME LAKE INDUCED SHOWERS MAINLY OVER EXTREME NE OH AND NW PA
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO INDICATE A LOT MORE QPF
THEN WOULD BE EXPECTED. CONTINUED THE TREND TO KEEP MOST OF THE RAIN
SHOWERS IN THE SNOW BELT AREA. THE LAKE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE
DIFFERENCE WILL BE AROUND 15 TO 16C.
ON SUNDAY THE ECMWF HAS HIGH PRESSURE OVER MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES
WHILE THE GFS HAS THE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND A TROF
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. CONTINUED CHANCE POPS IN THE SNOW BELT
AREA SUNDAY.
BY MONDAY THE ECMWF MOVES THE HIGH TO THE EAST AND A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES WHILE THE GFS HAS A RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. KEPT MONDAY DRY AT THIS TIME UNTIL THE TRENDS ARE CLEARER.
HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
IN THE MEANTIME THE AREA OF RAIN OVER INDIANA WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EAST AS THE 700 MB FLOW IS SOUTHERLY. THE HRRR MODELS TIMING IS
GOOD IN BRINGING THE SHOWERS INTO TOL AND FDY AROUND 11Z AND THEN
IT TRIES TO SHIFT SOME SHOWERS EASTWARD A LITTLE TOO FAST. WENT
WITH A SLOWER TIMING OF THE SHOWERS GETTING TO MFD AROUND 15Z AND
CLE 18Z AND ERI 23Z. IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS MVFR CONDITIONS BUT
THE PREDOMINANT MAY BE VFR...NOT TOTALLY CONFIDENT IN THAT.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED IN THE SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON. CONFIDENT IN THAT IS LOW...SO NO MENTION OF THUNDER IN
THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. VFR CONDITIONS AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE DURING THE OVERNIGHT. MENTIONED
SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT A FEW SPOTS WHERE THE WINDS ARE LIGHT
AS THE WINDS ALOFT ARE BECOMING STRONG QUICKLY. SOME QUESTION HOW
STRONG THE WINDS WILL GET. ONCE THE SHOWERS START THE WINDS WILL
NOT BE AS STRONG. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE AROUND NOON MAINLY
OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND A PORTION OF NE OHIO INCLUDING MFD AND CLE
AND POSSIBLY CAK. THE 850 MB WINDS GET TO AROUND 70 KTS AT NOON
WHICH IS STRONG EVEN IN WARM ADVECTION.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
VERY UNSETTLED ON THE LAKE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. A LOW PRESSURE AREA
MOVING THROUGH THE THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THE NEXT FEW DAYS WAS
CAUSING A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND INCREASING STRONG WINDS
JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE FOR TODAY. THE LAKE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE
DIFFERENCE WILL BE NIL SO SOME MIXING WILL OCCUR. BECAUSE OF THAT
WILL ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS 20 TO
25 KNOTS DECREASING BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING. THE WAVES IN THE
NEARSHORE WILL NOT BE THAT HIGH. SOME QUESTION TO THE TIMING WHETHER
THE WINDS WILL DECREASE BEFORE EVENING OVER THE WESTERN LAKE. AT
THIS TIME WITH THE UNCERTAINTY WILL TO WITH AN EXPIRATION TIME OF 9
PM ON THE WEST END AND 10 PM ON THE EAST.
THE WINDS ON WEDNESDAY WILL NOT BE TOO STRONG AS THE LOW WEAKENS.
ON THURSDAY A WEAK FRONT OR TROF MOVES THROUGH AND THAT COULD CAUSE
WINDS AND WAVES NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON THE EAST END
OF THE LAKE.
ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE FRIDAY AND THAT WILL
DEFINITELY PROMPT THE NEED FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS WINDS COULD
GET UP TO 30 KNOTS. THAT THREAT WILL LAST INTO SUNDAY ON THE ENTIRE
LAKE AND POSSIBLY INTO EARLY MONDAY ON THE EAST END. THE THREAT FOR
SUSTAINED WINDS REACHING GALE FORCE FRIDAY NIGHT IS POSSIBLE AS THE
COLD ADVECTION IS SIGNIFICANT AND THE WINDS ALOFT ARE NEAR 35
KNOTS...THIS THREAT WILL BE MONITORED.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LEZ146>149.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LEZ142>145.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...ADAMS
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
202 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL LAKES LATE TOMORROW DRAGGING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK SO NO CHANGES NEEDED FOR MIDNIGHT UPDATE.
DRY FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE OVERNIGHT WITH THE WARM FRONT TO THE
NORTH OF US. SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN MAKING
THEIR WAY TOWARD THE I-75 CORRIDOR TOWARD MORNING. SOUTHEAST FLOW
WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AND KEEP TEMPERATURES UP. OTHER THAN
POSSIBLY ACROSS THE FAR EAST WHERE LOWS MAY DIP INTO THE UPPER
50S...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE THE SLOW
MOVING SURFACE LOW...NOW CENTERED OVER MISSOURI. LOW FORECAST TO
MOVING INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS TOMORROW AND ONLY TO BE NEAR CHICAGO BY
TOMORROW EVENING. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA TOMORROW AND WONT BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
UNTIL TOMORROW EVENING.
SPC HAS EXTENDED THE SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE TSRA ON TUESDAY TO THE
OHIO RIVER. STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND MOVES INTO THE
CENTRAL LAKES LATE TOMORROW SO THERE WILL BE LIFT. HOWEVER...WILL
BE LATE AND WITH THE RAIN CAPE WILL BE LIMITED. DID NOT ISSUE A
FLOOD WATCH BECAUSE OF THE TIMING AND THE FACT THAT IT HAS BEEN SO
DRY LATELY. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION LATE
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
CHANCE POPS CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY/LOWER GREAT
LAKES WEDNESDAY AND MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA. AS IT DOES SERIES
OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA. THIS FAR OUT DID
NOT TRY TO TIME EACH SHORT WAVE JUST KEPT CHANCE POPS GOING.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE NEXT PIECE OF JET ENERGY DIVING INTO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE GREAT LAKES WILL PASS OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS
MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS WITH IT AND THE THREAT OF SOME LAKE EFFECT
SHOWERS OVER NE OHIO AND NW PA IN ITS WAKE. THESE LAKE EFFECT
SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO SUNDAY.
FRIDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH HIGHS
VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL AVERAGES. COOLER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
IN THE MEANTIME THE AREA OF RAIN OVER INDIANA WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EAST AS THE 700 MB FLOW IS SOUTHERLY. THE HRRR MODELS TIMING IS
GOOD IN BRINGING THE SHOWERS INTO TOL AND FDY AROUND 11Z AND THEN
IT TRIES TO SHIFT SOME SHOWERS EASTWARD A LITTLE TOO FAST. WENT
WITH A SLOWER TIMING OF THE SHOWERS GETTING TO MFD AROUND 15Z AND
CLE 18Z AND ERI 23Z. IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS MVFR CONDITIONS BUT
THE PREDOMINANT MAY BE VFR...NOT TOTALLY CONFIDENT IN THAT.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED IN THE SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON. CONFIDENT IN THAT IS LOW...SO NO MENTION OF THUNDER IN
THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. VFR CONDITIONS AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE DURING THE OVERNIGHT. MENTIONED
SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT A FEW SPOTS WHERE THE WINDS ARE LIGHT
AS THE WINDS ALOFT ARE BECOMING STRONG QUICKLY. SOME QUESTION HOW
STRONG THE WINDS WILL GET. ONCE THE SHOWERS START THE WINDS WILL
NOT BE AS STRONG. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE AROUND NOON MAINLY
OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND A PORTION OF NE OHIO INCLUDING MFD AND CLE
AND POSSIBLY CAK. THE 850 MB WINDS GET TO AROUND 70 KTS AT NOON
WHICH IS STRONG EVEN IN WARM ADVECTION.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
INTO TUESDAY BEFORE IT BEGINS A SLOW MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS LOW
WILL SLOWLY FILL AS IT DRIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON
THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR INCREASING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS
ON TUESDAY. WINDS MAY END UP BEING STRONG ENOUGH TO NEED A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY UP UNTIL A COLD FRONT PASSES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL DECREASE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT BUT SHOULD
REMAIN SOUTHWESTERLY AS ANOTHER PIECE OF JET ENERGY DIVES INTO THE
GREAT LAKES TROUGH. THIS SHOULD BRING A REINFORCING SURGE OF COOLER
AIR ACROSS THE LAKE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE IN ITS WAKE WITH A SMALL CRAFT LIKELY NEEDED FOR
AT LEAST THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LAKE.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...DJB/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...MULLEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORMAN OK
1149 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014
.AVIATION...
CLOUDS HAVE EXITED THE TAF SITES AND CLEAR SKIES SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 850 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014/
UPDATE...
WIND SPEEDS HAVE DECREASED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS SO WIND
ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO DROP. RAIN HAS ALSO MOVED EAST OF THE AREA
AND CLOUDS CONT TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST. COOL AND DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS UPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY
FROM THE FA.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 656 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014/
AVIATION...
SKIES ARE CLEARING THIS EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST AND CLOUDS HAVE
EXITED ALL BUT KPNC... KOKC AND KOUN AS OF THE LATEST OBS. CIGS
ARE VFR WHERE CLOUDS REMAIN. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT THIS
EVENING.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014/
DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS FOCUSED ON RAIN ENDING AND STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS.
CURRENTLY... LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SHIFT
EASTWARD OUT OF CENTRAL OK. EXPECT PRECIP TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING... SLOWLY TAPERING OFF ACROSS THE OKC METRO THROUGH 4-
5 PM CDT. RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR APPEAR TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON
THE PRECIP TRENDS... SO LEFT A SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH THE LATE
EVENING... 7-10PM FOR LOCATIONS ALONG I-35 IN N CENTRAL OK. STRONG
NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST ACROSS WRN AND CENTRAL OK THROUGH
THE EVENING. THROUGH 300 PM CDT... SITES ACROSS WRN OK CONTINUE
TO REPORT GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH... WHERE CLEARING CONTINUES...
THUS RESULTING IN BETTER BL MIXING. WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY
THROUGH THE EVENING... RELAXING GRADUALLY AFTER SUNSET. NW WINDS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUE... PICKING UP THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING/AFTN WITH INCREASED MIXING DUE TO DAY TIME HEATING. NOT AS
WINDY AS TODAY... GUSTS TMRW WILL APPROACH 20 TO 30 MPH ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND ERN OK. WITH NW WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH
TUE... TEMPS WILL ONLY TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S ACROSS
OK... AND MID 70S IN WRN N TX.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK... INTO THE WEEKEND... RIDGING WILL
DEVELOP WED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. IN RESPONSE... SOUTH WINDS
WILL RETURN... RESULTING IN A GRADUAL WARM UP THROUGH SUN. NOT
RECORD WARMTH... BUT HIGHS WILL BE A 5-7 DEGREES ABOVE AVG... IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AT TIMES FROM WED-SUN.
LATE THIS WEEKEND... LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING HINTS OF ANOTHER
H500 SHORTWAVE... SO PRECIP CHANCES MAY RETURN LATE SUN-MON.
JTK
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 45 70 45 76 / 10 0 0 0
HOBART OK 44 73 45 78 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 46 75 47 80 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 40 72 41 78 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 46 70 42 72 / 10 0 0 0
DURANT OK 48 73 48 76 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1143 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 930 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014
FRONTOGENETICALLY DRIVEN RAIN CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE FORECAST
AREA...HOWEVER...THE CORRIDOR OF STRONGEST F-GEN HAS SHIFTED WEST
AND EXTENDS FROM NEAR EAU CLAIRE TO ROCHESTER AND MASON CITY.
MEANWHILE...A DRY SLOT IN THE REFLECTIVITY AND EVEN IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY IS NOTED OVER WESTERN ILLINOIS INTO SOUTHERN WI...MOSTLY
JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
13.18Z GFS AND 14.00Z HRRR MODELS GENERALLY SEEM TO HAVE THE BEST
HANDLE ON THE FARTHER WEST TREND TO THE STRONGEST F-GEN
CURRENTLY...AND HAVE ADJUSTED QPF TOWARDS THEM FOR THE ENTIRE
NIGHT. THE RESULT WAS A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT UPWARD ADJUSTMENT TO
QPF FOR 06-12Z ALONG/WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. APPEARS DURING
THIS PERIOD THE STRONGER F-GEN BAND WILL MAKE ITS WAY BACK
EASTWARD A BIT AS THE UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS TO OUR SOUTH CONTINUE
THEIR SLOW MARCH NORTHEASTWARD.
INTERESTINGLY...HEADING INTO TUESDAY...THE 13.18Z GFS STALLS THE
F-GEN BAND PRETTY MUCH OVER LA CROSSE AND WINONA ALL DAY WHILE
WEAKENING IT. IF THIS OCCURS...THE QPF FORECASTS NEED TO GO UP
SOME FOR TUESDAY AS WELL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014
FORECAST CHALLENGES INCLUDE RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND THE SPEED IN
WHICH THE CURRENT SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE REGION. 13.12Z GFS/ECMWF
NAM/GEM HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 15.12Z...BUT THEN
DIVERGE SOMEWHAT WITH HOW QUICKLY RAIN ENDS BY MID-WEEK. THE
NAM/GEM ARE MOST PROGRESSIVE WHEREAS THE ECMWF IS SLOWEST AND THE
GFS SOMEWHERE IN-BETWEEN. WILL FOLLOW A GFS/ECMWF BLENDED SOLUTION
FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
13.20Z REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS A SWATH OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
STRETCHING ACROSS MOST OF IA INTO NORTHERN IL AND SOUTHERN WI.
THIS RAIN WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
AS SURFACE LOW DRIFTS SLOWLY ACROSS MO AND THEN STALLS OUT ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL IL BY TOMORROW. STRONG MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ALONG
TROUGH AXIS COMBINED WITH PWATS FROM 1.0 TO 1.5 INCHES WILL
PRODUCE PERIODS OF MODERATE TO EVEN HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH THE
NIGHT. WITH UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS ACROSS IA SHOWING RATES OF 0.10
TO 0.20 INCHES PER HOUR...OVERNIGHT TOTALS FROM 0.25 INCHES ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST TO OVER AN INCH ACROSS THE EAST/SOUTHEAST ARE
LIKELY. RAINFALL WILL EXTEND OVER SEVERAL HOURS AND WITH RECENT
DRY WEATHER...FLOODING IS NOT A CONCERN. WINDS TONIGHT WILL SHIFT
TO THE NORTH WITH INCREASING GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. WITH 100 PERCENT
CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL SLOWLY OR REMAIN STEADY...
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
FORCING SLOWLY DECREASES ON TUESDAY...BUT WITH THE STALLED LOW
FILLING-IN ACROSS IL AND AMPLE MOISTURE...EXPECT PERIODS OF LIGHT
RAIN THROUGH THE DAY. RAIN WILL SLOWLY DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. UP TO AN ADDITIONAL QUARTER OF AN INCH IS
POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY...BUT
IT WILL BE MUCH MORE WINDY WITH FREQUENT NORTHERLY GUSTS FROM 20
TO 30 MPH.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014
SURFACE LOW FINALLY MOVES INTO CENTRAL IN BY MID-DAY ON WEDNESDAY.
GFS/NAM/GEM DRY OUT THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY 16.00Z...BUT THE
ECMWF CONTINUES TO HOLD ONTO SOME LOW QPF ACROSS THE FAR EAST.
WILL HONOR THIS WITH 20 TO 30 POPS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MAINLY ACROSS
WESTERN WI...BUT ALSO CLIPPING EXTREME NORTHEAST IA AND SOUTHEAST
MN. CLOUD COVER WILL BE VERY SLOW TO MOVE OUT...BUT COULD SEE SOME
PEAKS OF SUN ALLOWING AFTERNOON HIGHS TO RISE A DEGREE OR TWO
COMPARED TO TUESDAY.
THURSDAY LIKELY TO BE DRY ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO LINGER
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN WI. WILL CONTINUE
20 POPS FOR THESE AREAS. ASSUMING CLOUDS BREAK-UP A BIT...THURSDAY
WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH QUICK-MOVING THERMAL
RIDGE MOVING OVERHEAD IN FRONT OF THE NEXT WAVE ALOFT. EXPECT
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GFS
KEEPS PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT THE ECMWF/
GEM ARE FARTHER SOUTH. BEST CHANCES APPEAR TO BE ACROSS TAYLOR/
CLARK COUNTIES...SO WILL KEEP 20 POPS CONFINED TO THIS AREA
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN MOSTLY
DRY CONDITIONS WITH DAILY HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S TO
LOWER 40S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014
BOTH TAF SITES CONTINUE TO BE IMPACTED BY RAIN AND A MVFR/IFR STRATUS
DECK...ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY LIFTING
NORTHEAST THROUGH NORTHERN ILLINOIS. THE LOWEST CEILINGS PERSIST
AT RST BUT HAVE BEEN SLOWLY CLIMBING. ADDITIONALLY...THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT HAS TIGHTENED UP RESULTING IN 10-15 KT WINDS...WITH GUSTS
OF 25 KT AT RST. CONDITIONS LOOK TO STAY STATUS QUO EARLY THIS
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A RISE TO MVFR AT RST FOR CEILING HEIGHTS
AT 12Z AS DRIER AIR TRIES TO FILTER IN. BOTH SITES ARE LIKELY TO
SEE THE WINDS AND GUSTS TO INCREASE SOME DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS
AS THE GRADIENT GETS A LITTLE TIGHTER. FURTHER IMPROVEMENT IN
CEILINGS AND DIMINISHING OF THE RAIN IS EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...STARTING FIRST AT RST...AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES A LITTLE FURTHER AWAY FROM THE TAF SITES. LOOK FOR WIND
GUSTS TO DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
HOWEVER...AT LSE WHERE THE VALLEY CAN AID IN DIMINISHING WINDS
NEAR THE GROUND MORE...HAVE INTRODUCED LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WITH
40-50 KT WINDS FORECAST TO PERSIST NEAR 2000 FT.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS
AVIATION...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1042 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014
.UPDATE...
MOST RECENT SPC OUTLOOK HAS PUSHED JUST A TAD BIT SOUTH WITH SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE STORMS NOW MENTIONED FOR PORTIONS OF PASCO...HERNANDO
AND SUMTER COUNTIES NORTH INTO LEVY. MORNING UPDATE WHICH WAS SENT
OUT ALREADY THIS MORNING INCLUDED THE MENTION OF GUSTY WINDS IN THE
GRIDS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NATURE COAST. THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT THAT HAS BEEN OFFSHORE THIS MORNING HAS GRADUALLY DIMINISHED
IN INTENSITY AS IT APPROACHED THE GULF COAST. THAT BEING SAID...SHOWERS
WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS NEAR THE COAST FROM TAMPA BAY SOUTHWARD.
FOR THE AFTERNOON...MOST RECENT HRRR GUIDANCE IS MUCH MORE ROBUST THAN
THE PAST FEW RUNS ON RE-DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/STORMS OFFSHORE BEFORE
GRADUALLY PUSHING INLAND. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR TSTM
DEVELOPMENT DO NOT SEE A REASON TO ADJUST THE CURRENT FORECAST ALL THAT
MUCH. WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE SOME CHANGES THROUGHOUT THE DAY TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS AS WELL AS LATEST FORECAST THINKING HOWEVER.
&&
.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH LOCALIZED
REDUCTIONS TO MVFR/IFR LIKELY IN THE STRONGEST STORMS. CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
WILL LINGER DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAY TOMORROW BEFORE THE
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8PM THIS EVENING FOR THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL COASTAL WATERS AS LOCAL HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST THAT WINDS
NEAR 20 KTS MAY PERSIST AHEAD OF THE FRONT UNTIL THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AS THE DAY PROGRESSES WHILE THE COLD
FRONT IS LOCATED FAR OFFSHORE STILL. STORMS WILL BE A THREAT FOR THE
REST OF THE DAY AND INTO THE DAY TOMORROW WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 85 75 81 65 / 60 50 40 10
FMY 87 76 85 66 / 50 40 50 20
GIF 86 74 83 63 / 60 40 40 10
SRQ 85 76 82 64 / 70 50 40 10
BKV 85 72 80 53 / 70 50 30 10
SPG 85 76 82 69 / 70 60 40 10
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL
MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO
TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO
SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE
RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
UPDATE/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...11/MCKAUGHAN
MARINE...007/DOUGHERTY AND 11/MCKAUGHAN
DECISION SUPPORT...69/CLOSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
810 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST WILL DIRECT A
MOIST ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT
MAY LINGER IN THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY BUT DEEPER MOISTURE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL SHIFT EASTWARD EARLY AND THE SHOWER CHANCE
WILL DIMINISH.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH 2PM. THIS MORNING...DYNAMIC STORM SYSTEM TO THE WEST
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE STRONG STORMS AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS
EASTERN AL/TN/CENTRAL GA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING
FASTER THAN MODELS HAVE SHOWN.
THE THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL INCREASE BY MIDDAY AS
A LINE OF CONVECTION RE-INTENSIFIES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. HAVE SPED UP POP TIMING BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS. HRRR
AND RAP SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY HAVE BEEN A COUPLE OF HOURS BEHIND
WITH TIMING ON THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS. TIMING IS DIURNALLY
FAVORABLE WITH THE MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION EXPECTED TO REACH THE
CSRA WITHIN THE 18Z TO 20Z TIME FRAME. CONVECTIVE ANALYSIS REVEALS
MODERATE INSTABILITY BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH CAPE AROUND 1000 TO
1500 J/KG. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR
PROFILES WITH 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR AROUND 30 TO 35 KNOTS. THE MAIN
THREAT WILL LIKELY BE STRONG WINDS. TORNADO THREAT IN DISCRETE
CELLS AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN ADDITION TO SMALL
HAIL. THE NAM AND GFS SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASING TO NEAR 2
INCHES TOWARD THE END OF THE DAY WHICH INDICATES POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN PROMOTING
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS TODAY WITH GUSTS NEAR 20
TO 25 KNOTS. EXPECT A GRADIENT IN TEMPERATURES FROM WEST TO EAST
TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S WEST TO MIDDLE 80S EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE SLOW WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE CURRENT
ACTIVITY...BUT FOR THE MOST PART THE MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
THIS EVENING...PROBABLY ALONG A PREFRONTAL TROUGH. INSTABILITY
SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT THE SHEAR ACROSS
THE REGION WILL BE STRONG. STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS
WILL BE MOVING OVER THE FORECAST AREA...AND THIS WILL BE COUPLED
WITH AN EVEN STRONGER MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET. MUCH OF THE ENERGY
WILL BE PARALLEL TO THE MAIN UPPER FLOW...AND WHEN YOU ADD IN PW
VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES THIS EVENING...WE CAN EXPECT PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL. BULK OF THE ACTIVITY THIS EVENING WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH BETWEEN 00Z-05Z...THEN EXPECT LIGHTER SHOWERS AND STORMS
AS THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY MOVES EAST OF THE CWA. SHOWERS SHOULD
LINGER OVERNIGHT...BUT CHANCES FOR RAINFALL WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH
TOWARDS WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE MAIN FRONT MOVES INTO AND THROUGH
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES NOT EXPECTED TO FALL MUCH THROUGH THE
EVENING AND EVEN THROUGH MIDNIGHT. EXPECT BEST TEMPERATURE DROP TO
BE AFTER MIDNIGHT ONCE THE MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS PUSHING
THROUGH THE AREA.
FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN FRONT WILL BE PUSHING
EAST OF THE CWA EARLY IN THE DAY...ALONG WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE.
HOWEVER DUE TO THE MAIN UPPER LOW STILL WEST OF THE CWA...WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE UPSTATE AND
POSSIBLY EXTREME WESTERN CWA. EVEN SO...HAVE DRIED THE FORECAST
OUT ACROSS THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS DURING THE DAY
WILL BE COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH READINGS IN THE MIDDLE 70S.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL SEE A DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS ACROSS THE
REGION. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN UP OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S...WITH
ISOLATED SPOTS POSSIBLY REACHING THE UPPER 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONGER TERM MODELS STILL INDICATING A DRY FORECAST PATTERN THROUGH
THE MAJORITY OF THE LONGER TERM PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE IN THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WITH RIDGING ALONG THE GULF COAST SHOULD DIRECT A DRY
WESTERLY FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA EARLY. THE MODELS SHOW A WEAK
FRONT WILL LITTLE CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE SATURDAY WITH RIDGING
DOMINATING SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE GUIDANCE SUPPORTS NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS LIKELY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING INTO
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A LINE OF HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER AREA AFTER 12Z. MVFR AND BRIEF IFR
VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE AS THE LINE SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
MIDLANDS BY LATE MORNING. STRONG WIND GUSTS OF 25 KNOTS OR HIGHER
ARE LIKELY WITH THE HEAVIER STORMS AND ALSO AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY PUSHING EAST ACROSS ALABAMA. FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS SC
WILL OCCUR LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION
TAPERING OFF.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS EAST.
OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED WITH A
DRIER AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE AREA.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
720 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST WILL DIRECT A
MOIST ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT
MAY LINGER IN THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY BUT DEEPER MOISTURE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL SHIFT EASTWARD EARLY AND THE SHOWER CHANCE
WILL DIMINISH.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH 2PM. THIS MORNING...DYNAMIC STORM SYSTEM TO THE WEST
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE STRONG STORMS AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS
EASTERN AL/TN/CENTRAL GA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING
FASTER THAN MODELS HAVE SHOWN.
THE THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL INCREASE BY MIDDAY AS
A LINE OF CONVECTION RE-INTENSIFIES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. HAVE SPED UP POP TIMING BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS. HRRR
AND RAP SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY HAVE BEEN A COUPLE OF HOURS BEHIND
WITH TIMING ON THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS. TIMING IS DIURNALLY
FAVORABLE WITH THE MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION EXPECTED TO REACH THE
CSRA WITHIN THE 18Z TO 20Z TIME FRAME. CONVECTIVE ANALYSIS REVEALS
MODERATE INSTABILITY BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH CAPE AROUND 1000 TO
1500 J/KG. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR
PROFILES WITH 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR AROUND 30 TO 35 KNOTS. THE MAIN
THREAT WILL LIKELY BE STRONG WINDS. TORNADO THREAT IN DISCRETE
CELLS AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN ADDITION TO SMALL
HAIL. THE NAM AND GFS SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASING TO NEAR 2
INCHES TOWARD THE END OF THE DAY WHICH INDICATES POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN PROMOTING
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS TODAY WITH GUSTS NEAR 20
TO 25 KNOTS. EXPECT A GRADIENT IN TEMPERATURES FROM WEST TO EAST
TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S WEST TO MIDDLE 80S EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE SLOW WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE CURRENT
ACTIVITY...BUT FOR THE MOST PART THE MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
THIS EVENING...PROBABLY ALONG A PREFRONTAL TROUGH. INSTABILITY
SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT THE SHEAR ACROSS
THE REGION WILL BE STRONG. STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS
WILL BE MOVING OVER THE FORECAST AREA...AND THIS WILL BE COUPLED
WITH AN EVEN STRONGER MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET. MUCH OF THE ENERGY
WILL BE PARALLEL TO THE MAIN UPPER FLOW...AND WHEN YOU ADD IN PW
VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES THIS EVENING...WE CAN EXPECT PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL. BULK OF THE ACTIVITY THIS EVENING WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH BETWEEN 00Z-05Z...THEN EXPECT LIGHTER SHOWERS AND STORMS
AS THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY MOVES EAST OF THE CWA. SHOWERS SHOULD
LINGER OVERNIGHT...BUT CHANCES FOR RAINFALL WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH
TOWARDS WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE MAIN FRONT MOVES INTO AND THROUGH
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES NOT EXPECTED TO FALL MUCH THROUGH THE
EVENING AND EVEN THROUGH MIDNIGHT. EXPECT BEST TEMPERATURE DROP TO
BE AFTER MIDNIGHT ONCE THE MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS PUSHING
THROUGH THE AREA.
FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN FRONT WILL BE PUSHING
EAST OF THE CWA EARLY IN THE DAY...ALONG WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE.
HOWEVER DUE TO THE MAIN UPPER LOW STILL WEST OF THE CWA...WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE UPSTATE AND
POSSIBLY EXTREME WESTERN CWA. EVEN SO...HAVE DRIED THE FORECAST
OUT ACROSS THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS DURING THE DAY
WILL BE COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH READINGS IN THE MIDDLE 70S.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL SEE A DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS ACROSS THE
REGION. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN UP OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S...WITH
ISOLATED SPOTS POSSIBLY REACHING THE UPPER 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONGER TERM MODELS STILL INDICATING A DRY FORECAST PATTERN THROUGH
THE MAJORITY OF THE LONGER TERM PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE IN THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WITH RIDGING ALONG THE GULF COAST SHOULD DIRECT A DRY
WESTERLY FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA EARLY. THE MODELS SHOW A WEAK
FRONT WILL LITTLE CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE SATURDAY WITH RIDGING
DOMINATING SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE GUIDANCE SUPPORTS NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY MID MORNING
INTO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE MORNING AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ALONG AND AHEAD OF
A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHING EAST. RESTRICTIONS LIKELY AS THE MAIN
BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS PUSHES THROUGH. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS
AND HEAVY RAINFALL. MODELS ARE ALSO INDICATING LLWS POSSIBLE ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PROMOTE
SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 TO 25
KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN THUNDERSTORMS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS EAST.
OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED WITH A
DRIER AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE AREA.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
615 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST WILL DIRECT A
MOIST ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT
MAY LINGER IN THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY BUT DEEPER MOISTURE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL SHIFT EASTWARD EARLY AND THE SHOWER CHANCE
WILL DIMINISH.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY THIS MORNING...DYNAMIC STORM SYSTEM TO THE WEST CONTINUES
TO PRODUCE STRONG STORMS AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS EASTERN
AL/TN/CENTRAL GA EARLY THIS MORNING. ACROSS THE CAROLINAS A
SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO
BRING MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE
MOVING ONSHORE ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL PORTIONS OF SC THIS
MORNING. WILL STILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH POPS INCREASING TOWARDS DAWN AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE
WEST MOVES IN AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES. CLOUD COVER AND
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET KEEPING THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED WILL RESULT
IN MILD MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.
TODAY...THE SHOWER CHANCE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE IN THE WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT THIS
MORNING. THE THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL INCREASE BY
MIDDAY AS A LINE OF CONVECTION RE-INTENSIFIES AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HAVE SPED UP POP TIMING BASED ON LATEST
RADAR TRENDS. HRRR AND RAP SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY HAVE BEEN A
COUPLE OF HOURS BEHIND WITH TIMING ON THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS.
TIMING IS DIURNALLY FAVORABLE WITH THE MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION
EXPECTED TO REACH THE CSRA WITHIN THE 18Z TO 20Z TIME FRAME.
CONVECTIVE ANALYSIS REVEALS MODERATE INSTABILITY BY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH CAPE AROUND 1000 TO 1500 J/KG. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW STRONG
UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILES WITH 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR AROUND 30 TO 35
KNOTS. THE MAIN THREAT WILL LIKELY BE STRONG WINDS. TORNADO THREAT
IN DISCRETE CELLS AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN
ADDITION TO SMALL HAIL. THE NAM AND GFS SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATER
INCREASING TO NEAR 2 INCHES TOWARD THE END OF THE DAY WHICH
INDICATES POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN PROMOTING SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS TODAY
WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 TO 25 KNOTS. EXPECT A GRADIENT IN TEMPERATURES
FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S WEST TO MIDDLE
80S EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE SLOW WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE CURRENT
ACTIVITY...BUT FOR THE MOST PART THE MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
THIS EVENING...PROBABLY ALONG A PREFRONTAL TROUGH. INSTABILITY
SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT THE SHEAR ACROSS
THE REGION WILL BE STRONG. STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS
WILL BE MOVING OVER THE FORECAST AREA...AND THIS WILL BE COUPLED
WITH AN EVEN STRONGER MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET. MUCH OF THE ENERGY
WILL BE PARALLEL TO THE MAIN UPPER FLOW...AND WHEN YOU ADD IN PW
VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES THIS EVENING...WE CAN EXPECT PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL. BULK OF THE ACTIVITY THIS EVENING WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH BETWEEN 00Z-05Z...THEN EXPECT LIGHTER SHOWERS AND STORMS
AS THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY MOVES EAST OF THE CWA. SHOWERS SHOULD
LINGER OVERNIGHT...BUT CHANCES FOR RAINFALL WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH
TOWARDS WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE MAIN FRONT MOVES INTO AND THROUGH
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES NOT EXPECTED TO FALL MUCH THROUGH THE
EVENING AND EVEN THROUGH MIDNIGHT. EXPECT BEST TEMPERATURE DROP TO
BE AFTER MIDNIGHT ONCE THE MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS PUSHING
THROUGH THE AREA.
FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN FRONT WILL BE PUSHING
EAST OF THE CWA EARLY IN THE DAY...ALONG WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE.
HOWEVER DUE TO THE MAIN UPPER LOW STILL WEST OF THE CWA...WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE UPSTATE AND
POSSIBLY EXTREME WESTERN CWA. EVEN SO...HAVE DRIED THE FORECAST
OUT ACROSS THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS DURING THE DAY
WILL BE COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH READINGS IN THE MIDDLE 70S.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL SEE A DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS ACROSS THE
REGION. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN UP OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S...WITH
ISOLATED SPOTS POSSIBLY REACHING THE UPPER 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONGER TERM MODELS STILL INDICATING A DRY FORECAST PATTERN THROUGH
THE MAJORITY OF THE LONGER TERM PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE IN THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WITH RIDGING ALONG THE GULF COAST SHOULD DIRECT A DRY
WESTERLY FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA EARLY. THE MODELS SHOW A WEAK
FRONT WILL LITTLE CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE SATURDAY WITH RIDGING
DOMINATING SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE GUIDANCE SUPPORTS NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT.
CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN FLUCTUATING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS
INITIAL STRATUS LAYER RETREATED. CEILINGS MAY ONCE AGAIN LOWER
TOWARD DAYBREAK AS SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW PULLS IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
DO NOT EXPECT ANY FOG AS SURFACE WINDS HAVE INCREASED THIS
MORNING. INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE MORNING AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ALONG AND AHEAD OF
A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHING EAST. RESTRICTIONS LIKELY AS THE MAIN
BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS PUSHES THROUGH. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS
AND HEAVY RAINFALL. MODELS ARE ALSO INDICATING LLWS POSSIBLE
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
PROMOTE SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 20
TO 25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN THUNDERSTORMS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS
EAST. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED WITH
A DRIER AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE AREA.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1031 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014
.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 237 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014
TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ARE GOING TO DOMINATE INDIANA WEATHER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE FIRST WAS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING. IT IS PREDICTED TO SHOW ALMOST NO
MOVEMENT UNTIL THURSDAY WHEN IT SHOULD DISSIPATE.
SHORTLY THEREAFTER...A SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS GOING TO
DEVELOP FROM WESTERN ONTARIO ACROSS INDIANA...TO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. NOT MUCH CHANGE WILL OCCUR UNTIL MONDAY...WHEN HIGH PRESSURE
OUGHT TO MOVE ACROSS THE HOOSIER STATE FROM THE WEST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 949 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014
FOR THE MORNING UPDATE...INCREASED POPS NORTHEAST AND DECREASED THEM
IN THE SOUTHEAST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO BETTER MATCH RADAR OBS.
FOR THE AFTERNOON HRRR AND RAP ARE BOTH DEPICTING LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF SHOWERS ONCE THIS INITIAL WAVE MOVES OUT. HOWEVER THERE IS
ANOTHER WEAKER WAVE THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER LOW THIS
AFTERNOON SO WENT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND RETAINED SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDER THROUGH 0Z WITH SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
AVAILABLE. DECREASED TEMPERATURES TO HIGHS IN THE MID 60S ACROSS
THE AREA WITH EXPECTED BROKEN TO OVERCAST CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE
DAY AND COLD ADVECTION AT 850 MB AND ALL LATEST OPERATIONAL MODELS
GOING COLDER THAN GOING FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 237 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014
POPS REMAIN THE MAIN ISSUE.
GUIDANCE POPS TONIGHT DECLINE FROM WEST TO EAST. THIS SUGGESTS THEY
EXPECT SOMETHING TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AND THEN GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE. THATS WHAT HAPPENED YESTERDAY INTO THIS MORNING.
THIS MAKES SENSE WITH ALL MODELS HAVING A FRONT TO OUR WEST BY
EVENING. BEYOND THAT PRESSURE ADVECTION ON THE 1.5 POTENTIAL
VORTICITY SURFACE SUGGESTS UPWARD FORCING WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
NORTHERN CWA PAST 00Z. GIVEN THAT LIKELY POPS LOOK GOOD IN THE
NORTHEAST AS WELL AS THE WEST. THE SOUTHEAST IS GOING TO BE FARTHER
AWAY FROM THE FORCING SO CHANCE POPS SHOULD SUFFICE THERE.
BY WEDNESDAY A FRONT IS LIKELY TO BE RIGHT OVER THE CWA. WHILE
DAYTIME HEATING IS APT TO BE MEAGER...IT WILL BE COMBINED WITH
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT. THE HIGHS POPS FROM BOTH FORMS OF
GUIDANCE LOOK GOOD.
THERE IS DECENT MODEL CONSENSUS AN UPPER LOW OVER OUR AREA WILL MOVE
OFF TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...REDUCING THE CHANCE
OF RAIN. HOWEVER THERE IS ALSO MODEL CONSENSUS CYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW
WILL PERSIST. THIS OPENS POSSIBILITY OF EMBEDDED TROUGHS CAUSING
CONVERGENCE. A SLIGHT CHANCE SHOULD BE RETAINED FOR BOTH PERIODS.
WITH THE ALREADY MENTIONED FRONT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE OVER THE CWA
LATE NIGHT...TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN
TODAY. THE GUIDANCE IS CLOSE AND WELL SUPPORTED BY THE DETERMINISTIC
TEMPERATURE FIELDS. THERE IS NO REASON TO CHANGE THE MOS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014
THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSITION INTO SOME WEAK TROUGHING AT
THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. HOWEVER...GFS AND EURO ARE IN
AGREEMENT IN REGARD TO SYSTEM STAYING TOO FAR NORTH FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. AS A RESULT...WILL KEEP THE
DRY FORECAST FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON THAT LATEST
INITIALIZATION PRODUCED.
FURTHER OUT...MODELS BECOME INCONSISTENT...AND REGIONAL
INITIALIZATION IS STRUGGLING WITH LOCATION OF PRECIP CHANCES FROM
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. OVERALL...THE INITIALIZATION
SEEMS TO BE TRENDING TOWARD THE EURO AND A WEAK UPPER TROUGH
BRINGING LIGHT PRECIP TO PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
MEANWHILE...THE GFS IS SHOWING NO INDICATIONS OF AN UPPER TROUGH
DURING THAT TIME PERIOD AND FAVORS SUBSIDENCE OVER CENTRAL INDIANA.
WILL NOT MAKE CHANGES TO INITIALIZATION AT THIS TIME UNTIL MODELS
SHOW BETTER AGREEMENT.
TEMPS WILL START OUT ABOVE NORMAL WITH WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON
FRIDAY. THIS WILL PUT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S.
HOWEVER...TEMPS WILL FALL CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD AS SURFACE WINDS TAKE ON MORE OF A NORTHWESTERLY
COMPONENT. THIS MEANS HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S AND LOWS IN
THE 40S.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 14/15Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1031 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014
PREVIOUSLY ADDED SOME EXPLICIT SHOWER MENTIONS BUT THOSE SHOULD BE
MOVING OUT OF THE SITES OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO IF THEY HAVEN/T
ALREADY. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY VCSH AS SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. COULD SEE LOW MVFR LIFT TO
HIGHER END MVFR OR EVEN VFR FOR A BRIEF PERIOD LATE THIS
MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SO RAISED TO HIGHER MVFR WHERE LOWER
END WAS GOING. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH OF ANY PROLONGED STRETCH OF VFR
THOUGH SO LEFT THAT OUT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL IMPACT ALL TAF SITES TODAY AS UPPER LOW
APPROACHES CENTRAL INDIANA. ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...BUT CHANCES ARE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE MENTION IN
TAFS AT THIS TIME. MVFR WILL BE THE PREVAILING FLIGHT CATEGORY
THROUGH THE DAY AND EVENING HOURS...BUT CONDITIONS WILL
DETERIORATE FURTHER TONIGHT AS CORE OF UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS FROM WED 06Z THROUGH
END OF TAF PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BE STRONG OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 12
TO 14 KTS...GUSTING TO 24 KTS THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...THEN
TAPERING OFF AND BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY AROUND WED 00Z.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD/CP
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
956 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014
.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 237 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014
TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ARE GOING TO DOMINATE INDIANA WEATHER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE FIRST WAS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING. IT IS PREDICTED TO SHOW ALMOST NO
MOVEMENT UNTIL THURSDAY WHEN IT SHOULD DISSIPATE.
SHORTLY THEREAFTER...A SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS GOING TO
DEVELOP FROM WESTERN ONTARIO ACROSS INDIANA...TO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. NOT MUCH CHANGE WILL OCCUR UNTIL MONDAY...WHEN HIGH PRESSURE
OUGHT TO MOVE ACROSS THE HOOSIER STATE FROM THE WEST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 949 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014
FOR THE MORNING UPDATE...INCREASED POPS NORTHEAST AND DECREASED THEM
IN THE SOUTHEAST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO BETTER MATCH RADAR OBS.
FOR THE AFTERNOON HRRR AND RAP ARE BOTH DEPICTING LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF SHOWERS ONCE THIS INITIAL WAVE MOVES OUT. HOWEVER THERE IS
ANOTHER WEAKER WAVE THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER LOW THIS
AFTERNOON SO WENT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND RETAINED SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDER THROUGH 0Z WITH SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
AVAILABLE. DECREASED TEMPERATURES TO HIGHS IN THE MID 60S ACROSS
THE AREA WITH EXPECTED BROKEN TO OVERCAST CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE
DAY AND COLD ADVECTION AT 850 MB AND ALL LATEST OPERATIONAL MODELS
GOING COLDER THAN GOING FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 237 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014
POPS REMAIN THE MAIN ISSUE.
GUIDANCE POPS TONIGHT DECLINE FROM WEST TO EAST. THIS SUGGESTS THEY
EXPECT SOMETHING TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AND THEN GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE. THATS WHAT HAPPENED YESTERDAY INTO THIS MORNING.
THIS MAKES SENSE WITH ALL MODELS HAVING A FRONT TO OUR WEST BY
EVENING. BEYOND THAT PRESSURE ADVECTION ON THE 1.5 POTENTIAL
VORTICITY SURFACE SUGGESTS UPWARD FORCING WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
NORTHERN CWA PAST 00Z. GIVEN THAT LIKELY POPS LOOK GOOD IN THE
NORTHEAST AS WELL AS THE WEST. THE SOUTHEAST IS GOING TO BE FARTHER
AWAY FROM THE FORCING SO CHANCE POPS SHOULD SUFFICE THERE.
BY WEDNESDAY A FRONT IS LIKELY TO BE RIGHT OVER THE CWA. WHILE
DAYTIME HEATING IS APT TO BE MEAGER...IT WILL BE COMBINED WITH
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT. THE HIGHS POPS FROM BOTH FORMS OF
GUIDANCE LOOK GOOD.
THERE IS DECENT MODEL CONSENSUS AN UPPER LOW OVER OUR AREA WILL MOVE
OFF TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...REDUCING THE CHANCE
OF RAIN. HOWEVER THERE IS ALSO MODEL CONSENSUS CYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW
WILL PERSIST. THIS OPENS POSSIBILITY OF EMBEDDED TROUGHS CAUSING
CONVERGENCE. A SLIGHT CHANCE SHOULD BE RETAINED FOR BOTH PERIODS.
WITH THE ALREADY MENTIONED FRONT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE OVER THE CWA
LATE NIGHT...TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN
TODAY. THE GUIDANCE IS CLOSE AND WELL SUPPORTED BY THE DETERMINISTIC
TEMPERATURE FIELDS. THERE IS NO REASON TO CHANGE THE MOS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014
THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSITION INTO SOME WEAK TROUGHING AT
THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. HOWEVER...GFS AND EURO ARE IN
AGREEMENT IN REGARD TO SYSTEM STAYING TOO FAR NORTH FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. AS A RESULT...WILL KEEP THE
DRY FORECAST FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON THAT LATEST
INITIALIZATION PRODUCED.
FURTHER OUT...MODELS BECOME INCONSISTENT...AND REGIONAL
INITIALIZATION IS STRUGGLING WITH LOCATION OF PRECIP CHANCES FROM
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. OVERALL...THE INITIALIZATION
SEEMS TO BE TRENDING TOWARD THE EURO AND A WEAK UPPER TROUGH
BRINGING LIGHT PRECIP TO PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
MEANWHILE...THE GFS IS SHOWING NO INDICATIONS OF AN UPPER TROUGH
DURING THAT TIME PERIOD AND FAVORS SUBSIDENCE OVER CENTRAL INDIANA.
WILL NOT MAKE CHANGES TO INITIALIZATION AT THIS TIME UNTIL MODELS
SHOW BETTER AGREEMENT.
TEMPS WILL START OUT ABOVE NORMAL WITH WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON
FRIDAY. THIS WILL PUT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S.
HOWEVER...TEMPS WILL FALL CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD AS SURFACE WINDS TAKE ON MORE OF A NORTHWESTERLY
COMPONENT. THIS MEANS HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S AND LOWS IN
THE 40S.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 14/12Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 721 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL IMPACT ALL TAF SITES TODAY AS UPPER LOW
APPROACHES CENTRAL INDIANA. ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...BUT CHANCES ARE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE MENTION IN
TAFS AT THIS TIME. MVFR WILL BE THE PREVAILING FLIGHT CATEGORY
THROUGH THE DAY AND EVENING HOURS...BUT CONDITIONS WILL
DETERIORATE FURTHER TONIGHT AS CORE OF UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS FROM WED 06Z THROUGH
END OF TAF PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BE STRONG OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 12
TO 14 KTS...GUSTING TO 24 KTS THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...THEN
TAPERING OFF AND BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY AROUND WED 00Z.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1019 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1018 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014
UPDATED THE FORECAST...MAINLY THE POPS...TO MAKE SURE THAT ONGOING
TRENDS WERE BETTER REFLECTED. CURRENTLY...AN AREA OF WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS IS SLOWLY MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
CWA. THERE IS A BREAK IN THE ACTION ALONG THE WESTERN CWA
BORDER...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ACTUAL
FRONT CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL KY. THIS ONGOING SCENARIO IS ILL DEFINED
IN ANY OF THE SHORT TERM MODELS...EXCEPT MAYBE THE HRRR WHICH IS
STILL SEVERAL HOURS TOO SLOW. AS SUCH...WENT THROUGH THE POP GRIDS
AND MANUALLY TWEAKED THEM HOUR BY HOUR TO BETTER SHOW THE TRENDS OF
THE TWO LINES AND BREAK IN BETWEEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR IN CASE FURTHER UPDATES NEED TO BE MADE.
ALSO...GIVEN THE LACK OF THUNDER FOR THIS EVENT ACROSS THE
REGION...REDUCED THUNDER MENTION TO ONLY ISOLATED IN THE MOST
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS. EVEN THEN...DON/T KNOW IF WE WILL SEE MUCH
IN THE WAY OF THUNDER WITH THIS EVENT. ALSO LOADED IN THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONAL DATA FOR TEMPS...DEW POINTS...AND WINDS...TO MAKE SURE
THE NEAR TERM FORECAST WAS WELL ON TRACK WITH ONGOING CONDITIONS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 715 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014
FOR THE MOST PART...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. HOWEVER...HAVE FINE
TUNED THE POPS FOR THE LINE OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. A
SLIGHTLY QUICKER MOVEMENT OF THE LINE SEEMS TO BE THE CASE AND HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS FOR THIS. THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE IN WESTERN
KENTUCKY ALONG I-65 THIS HOUR AND LOOKS TO BE ARRIVING IN EASTERN
KENTUCKY BY 18Z. FOR NOW...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AND THE HIGHER WIND
GUSTS THREAT STILL LOOKS TO BE VALID. HAVE SENT OUT A NEW ZFP FOR THE
POPS BEING ADJUSTED AND INPUT THE LATEST OBS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE A LINE OF SHOWERS JUST
ENTERING THE I-75 CORRIDOR AS HEAVY SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE NORTH OUT OF TN INTO KY. THE GENERAL PROGRESSION
OF THE LINE IS EASTWARD...THOUGH VERY SLOWLY. SOUTHEAST WINDS
PERPENDICULAR ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS SEEMS TO BE CREATING A DOWN SLOPE
EFFECT ON THE INCOMING RAINFALL AS IT CREEPS EAST. THIS IS EXPECTED
TO BE OVERCOME HEADING INTO THE MORNING HOURS. EVEN SO ADJUSTED THE
POPS FOR A QUICKER EXIT TONIGHT AS THE DURATION APPEARS TO BE
SHORTER. OBSERVATIONS SO FAR HAVE SHOWN WIND GUSTS GETTING INTO THE
30 TO 40 RANGE IN SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN. BECAUSE
OF THIS...DECIDED TO CONTINUE WITH THE SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THE CONTINUED
WIND THREAT. WHILE A FEW MORE BROKEN LINES OF STRONGER SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THE MORNING HOURS...THE MAIN SEVERE
THREAT IS MARGINAL FOR NOW. THIS MAY CHANGE HEADING INTO THE DAY WITH
SOME HEATING AFTER DAYBREAK...PERHAPS ENOUGH FOR SOME INCREASED
INSTABILITY BUT THE MAIN LINE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY ALREADY BE OVER
MUCH OF EASTERN KENTUCKY BY THEN. THIS WILL NEED MONITORED HEADING
INTO THE HOURS AFTER DAYBREAK TODAY...ESPECIALLY WITH THE LOW LEVEL
JET OF 50 TO 60 KNOTS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ANY
INCREASE IN INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH FOR THE LINE TO REORGANIZE.
DESPITE THE LACK OF INSTABILITY...THE STRONG WIND THREAT WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF A PREFRONTAL
TROUGH AND THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT THIS EVENING. THE ACTUAL FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WILL PROVIDE A SECONDARY CONCERN FOR
WINDS BUT ALSO FOR MORE HEAVY RAINFALL. WITH THIS...WILL KEEP THE
MENTION OF STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS TODAY...HEAVY RAINFALL
WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING...AND THE STRONG
WIND THREAT.
THROUGH THIS EVENING THE NAM AND GFS ARE SUGGESTING AN EARLIER EXIT
WHICH MAY RESULT IN A NEED TO EXPIRE PRODUCTS A BIT EARLIER BUT
ASSESS THIS LATER IN THE DAY. THIS APPEARS TO BE THE FORECAST
CHALLENGE AS WHEN THIS FRONT EXITS. MODELS STILL AGREE WITH THE
SCENARIO OF THE LINGERING UPPER LOW AND WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER OVER
THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT AND ALSO FOR WEDNESDAY DUE TO THIS. TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL FEATURE A BREAK IN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AS THE DRY SLOT WILL BE OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY BEFORE A SECONDARY
TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AND
WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS. FOR NOW...SOME INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT
IN THE AFTERNOON BUT WITH 200 J/KG...EXPECTING SHOWERS TO BE THE
CASE.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014
THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM MEXICO
NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO UPPER MS VALLEY REGION AND A
CLOSED LOW OVER THE OH VALLEY REGION TO ITS EAST. THE AXIS OF THIS
CLOSED LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS EAST KY ON WED
NIGHT...WITH THE CLOSED LOW EXPECTED TO DEPART TO THE NORTHEAST
GRADUALLY ON THU. THE RIDGE INITIALLY IN PLACE OVER THE PLAINS SHOULD
WORK EAST AND WEAKEN/FLATTEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. THE
PATTERN SHOULD GRADUALLY EVOLVE TO PATTERN WITH GENERALLY A RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NORTH INTO THE ROCKIES
AND A TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA SOUTH INTO THE EASTERN CONUS FROM
THE WEEKEND THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. A FEW SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE
THROUGH THIS TROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK. THE
FIRST SHORTWAVE SHOULD WORK ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND TN VALLEY REGIONS
ON FRI NIGHT. THE 0Z ECMWF AND 0Z GFS THEN DIFFER WITH HEIGHTS OVER
THE GREAT LAKES WITH THE GFS MORE CLOSED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND
CONSOLIDATED...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE AND BRINGS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE INTO THE OH VALLEY FROM SAT INTO SAT EVENING. MODELS GENERALLY
HAVE HEIGHT RISES AND WEAK RIDGING FOR SUNDAY...WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
MOVING INTO THE OH VALLEY LATE IN THE PERIOD.
THE PERIOD SHOULD BEGIN RATHER UNSETTLED WITH SHOWERS ANTICIPATED AS
MODELS BRING RATHER DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION ON WED NIGHT INTO
EARLY ON THU. WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND THE COLD AIR ALOFT...BELOW
NORMAL HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FOR THU. SOME CLEARING SHOULD TAKE
PLACE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS FOR LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WITH
MODERATION IN THE AIRMASS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THIS COLD FRONT
WILL WORK ACROSS THE AREA FROM LATE FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. THIS FRONT WILL
PROBABLY BRING NOT MUCH MORE THAN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY
A SPRINKLE OR TWO. THE ECMWF IS COLDER WITH THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE
FRONT...ESPECIALLY BY THE TIME IT BRINGS MUCH LOWER HEIGHTS ACROSS
THE AREA ON SAT WITH THE STRONGER SHORTWAVE. THE MODEL BLEND OF TEMPS
AND POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT FROM LATE FRI INTO SAT NIGHT SEEMED TO BE
THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION AT THIS POINT. BY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT...WITH THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS BEST
AFTER THE END OF THE PERIOD. MODEL DO DIFFER WITH TEMPS AT THAT
POINT...THOUGH...WITH THE MODEL BLEND FAVORED WHICH WAS IN LINE WITH
RECENT ECMWF MOS TEMPS. THIS LEANED TEMPS MORE TOWARD THE TYPICALLY
MORE RELIABLE FOR THAT TIME RANGE ECMWF.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 715 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014
A WEAKENING LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. CEILINGS AND VIS WILL DROP AS THE LINE
CONTINUES THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY AND WILL KEEP MOSTLY BELOW IFR AT
THE SITES THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT. AS THIS SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE OTHER CONCERN HERE WILL BE WINDS WHICH
WILL GUST OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AND UP TO 25 KNOTS AT SOME LOCATIONS.
WINDS SHOULD SHIFT FROM SOUTH EAST TO SOUTHWEST BY THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE AREA WITH WINDS DISSIPATING AFTER 00Z. SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
OVER A FEW AREAS TONIGHT BUT SOME BRIEF CLEARING IS POSSIBLE BEHIND
THE FRONT. IF THIS DOES OCCUR...SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP AT THE SITES
ALONG WITH SOME LOWER CEILINGS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR KYZ050-058-059-069-
080-085>088-108-111>118.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ068-079-083-
084.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ088-118.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
745 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 428 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW DEEP UPR TROF OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS...WITH CLOSED LO MOVING SLOWLY ENEWD THRU SE IOWA.
WELL DEFINED AREA OF COLDER CLD TOPS IN THE COMMA HEAD OF THE CLOUD
LEAF ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS PRESENT OVER WI AND UPR MI.
COMBINATION OF DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC...VIGOROUS UPR DVGC IN RRQ OF
H3 JET STREAK IN NW ONTARIO AND IN EXIT REGION OF ANOTHER JET STREAK
MOVING N THRU THE MS RIVER VALLEY ARND THE CLOSED LO AND VERY MOIST
AIR WITH 00Z PWAT AS HI AS 1.30 INCH AT GRB /ABOUT 225 PCT OF
NORMAL/ IS RESULTING IN WDSPRD RA OVER THE CWA. THE RA IS HEAVIEST
OVER THE ERN CWA WHERE THE H85 ISOTHERMS ARE MOST CLOSELY PACKED IN
PRESENCE OF SHARP H85-7 FGEN AND SFC-H7 MSTR CNVGC IS MOST
PRONOUNCED NEAR THIS FRONTAL ZN. RADARS TO THE S INDICATE A HINT OF
A DRY SLOT IS MOVING N THRU ERN WI...WITH PCPN THERE TAKING ON A
MORE SHOWERY LOOK. MUCH DRIER MID LVL AIR SHOWN ON THE 00Z INL RAOB
IS KEEPING FAR WRN LK SUP DRY.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS THRU TNGT WL BE FOCUSED ON PCPN COVERAGE AND
AMOUNTS ASSOCIATED WITH CLOSED LO THAT IS FCST TO MOVE TO NEAR
CHICAGO BY 12Z WED.
TODAY...CLOSED LO IS FCST TO DRIFT ONLY SLOWLY TO THE E INTO
NCENTRAL IL BY 00Z WED...WITH DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC MAINTAINED OVER
ALL OF UPR MI EXCEPT FOR THE FAR W...WHERE MODELS INDICATE MORE
AGGRESSIVE LO-MID LVL DRYING WL RESULT IN LARGER SCALE QVECTOR DVGC
BY THE AFTN. AT THE SAME TIME...THE UPR JET STREAK OVER NW ONTARIO
IS FCST TO DRIFT TO THE NE AND OVER JAMES BAY TOWARD 00Z. WHILE THIS
SHIFT WL RESULT IN DIMINISHING UPR DVGC...MOVEMENT OF JET STREAK ON
THE ERN FLANK OF THE CLOSED LO INTO LOWER MI WL LIKELY MAINTAIN SOME
GREATER UPR DVGC OVER THE E HALF OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY LATER IN
THE DAY. AXIS OF SHARPEST H85-7 FGEN/SFC-7 MSTR CNVGC IS ALSO FCST
TO SHIFT TO THE NE THIS MRNG AND GIVE WAY TO SOME H85-7 DRYING. THE
RESULT OF THESE SHIFTS IN DYNAMIC SUPPORT...ALONG WITH SOME DRYING
MOVING IN FM THE S THIS MRNG AND FROM THE W THRU THE DAY SHOULD BE A
DIMINISHING TREND IN THE RA COVERAGE/AMOUNTS. BUT PERSISTENCE OF
DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC OVER ALL BUT THE FAR W AND COVERAGE OF PCPN
UNDER THE COMMA HEAD FEATURE WELL UPSTREAM THRU WI AND INTO SE MN
EARLY THIS MRNG SHOULD MAINTAIN AT LEAST SCT-NMRS SHOWERS OVER THE E
HALF. CONSIDERING THE WELL DEFINED COMMA CLD AND FCST LINGERING DEEP
LYR QVECTOR CNVGC AS WELL AS THE SLOWLY FCST VEERING H85 WINDS...
SUSPECT THE MODELS MAY BE A BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE ON THE MID LVL
DRYING...AT LEAST OVER THE CENTRAL AND E. SO TENDED TO SLOW THE
DRYING TREND A BIT FM THE W. BUT THERE STILL COULD BE SOME AFTN
SUNSHINE OVER THE W...WHICH WL BOOST TEMPS A FEW DEGREES. THERE IS
LIKELY TO BE A RESURGENCE IN THE POPS ESPECIALLY OVER THE SCENTRAL
AND E LATER IN THE DAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF MORE UPR DVGC IN THE LEFT
EXIT REGION IN THE UPR JET MOVING INTO LOWER MI AS WELL AS ANOTHER
AREA OF SHARPER H85-7 FGEN SHOWN BY SOME OF THE GUIDANCE.
TNGT...BULK OF THE MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE WDSPRD RA
MAY IMPACT THE CENTRAL AND ERN CWA INTO THE EARLY MRNG HRS UNDER
PERSISTENT DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC AND UNDER AREA OF UPR DVGC IN LEFT
EXIT OF JET STREAK SHIFTING SLOWLY TO THE E THRU LOWER MI TO THE NE
OF CLOSED LO FCST TO DRIFT SLOWLY ENE TOWARD SRN LK MI. THE PCPN
LOOKS TO BE A BIT HEAVIER IN THE EVNG OVER THE SCENTRAL CWA WHERE
AXIS OF SHARPER H85-7 FGEN IS FCST TO ACCOMPANY THIS HIER LVL
SUPPORT. OTRW...INCRSG NNE WINDS TDAY THRU TNGT WL CAUSE WAVE HGTS
TO BUILD SUFFICIENTLY TO PERHAPS CAUSE SOME MINOR BEACH EROSION
ALONG THE SHORES OF MQT AND ALGER COUNTIES.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014
THE FORECAST FOR WED-WED NIGHT IS COMPLICATED BY SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER IL/IN.
ADDITIONALLY...DETERMINING WHERE AND HOW MUCH PRECIP IS COMPLICATED
BY A SHARP MOISTURE CUTOFF TO VERY DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A RIDGE
AXIS JUST NW OF THE CWA. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP FAR NWRN UPPER MI DRY
AS MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS TO BE THE CASE...BUT HAVE MINIMAL
CONFIDENCE IN EXACT PRECIP AMOUNTS AND LOCATIONS OF GREATEST PRECIP.
LACK OF CONFIDENCE CONTINUES THU AND THU NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW
MERGES WITH A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SRN CANADA. MODELS SHOW A CLOSED
LOW DEVELOPING OVER OR NEAR THE CWA FRI AS A RESULT OF THE MERGER.
UNCERTAINTY COMES FROM MODEL TO MODEL DISAGREEMENT AND RUN TO RUN
DISCONTINUITY ON WHERE THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY TRACKS BEFORE/DURING
THE MERGER. THE 12Z/13 ECMWF BRINGS THE REMNANTS OF THE LOW
CURRENTLY OVER IL ACROSS THE CWA...WHILE THE 00Z/14 GFS MOVES THE
REMNANTS WELL E AND THEN N OF THE CWA. THUS...THE ECMWF HAS LIGHT
RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA ON THU AND THU NIGHT...WHILE THE GFS HAS
ALMOST THE ENTIRE CWA DRY. THE GFS ALSO HAS BACKING FROM THE 00Z/14
NAM AND 12Z/13 GLOBAL GEM. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD CHANCES OF PRECIP
OVER THE ERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA AND SLIGHT CHANCES ELSEWHERE.
GIVEN CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE BEING MUCH DRIER THAN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...DECIDED TO CUT POPS BACK SOME ON THU.
IT DOES LOOK LIKE A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THU NIGHT OR EARLY
FRI...WITH A REINFORCING COLD FRONT LATE FRI OR FRI NIGHT. AT THIS
POINT...CONFIDENCE ACTUALLY INCREASES AS WNW-NW LOW LEVEL FLOW AND
GREATER LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW
WILL LEAD TO LAKE EFFECT PRECIP FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT.
FOR SUN AND MON...MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH WILL MOVE
FAR ENOUGH E TO LIMIT PRECIP CHANCES. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL WITH CONTINUED N-NW FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 739 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014
AS THE DYNAMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP LO PRES TO THE S SLOWLY
WEAKENS TODAY AND DRIER AIR IS SLOWLY ADVECTED INTO THE UPR LKS...
EXPECT GRDLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES. THIS DRYING WL
BE MOST EMPHATIC OVER THE W...WHERE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO IMPROVE
TO VFR AT IWD/CMX IN THE AFTN AND CONTINUE THRU TNGT. SINCE SAW WL
BE CLOSER TO DEEPER MSTR AND A GUSTY N WIND WL UPSLOPE...THE
IMPROVEMENT AT THIS LOCATION WL BE MUCH SLOWER. BUT EVEN HERE...ENUF
DRY AIR MAY ARRIVE TO RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS FOR A TIME THIS EVNG
BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF ANOTHER DISTURBANCE BRINGS A BETTER CHC OF
MORE SHRA AND LO CLDS/MVFR CIGS LATER TNGT. GUSTY WINDS WL ALSO
PERSIST AT SAW THRU TNGT.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 428 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014
EXPECT INCREASING NNE WINDS UP TO 30 KTS OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAKE
INTO TONIGHT UNDER TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT TO THE N OF DEEP LO PRES
MOVING TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THERE
COULD BE SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS...ESPECIALLY AT THE HIER PLATFORMS.
AS THE LO TO THE S SLOWLY WEAKENS LATER TONIGHT/WED AND A HI PRES
RIDGE DRIFTS OVER THE UPPER LAKES LATER ON WED...EXPECT WINDS TO
STEADILY DIMINISH UNDER 15 KTS ON WED NIGHT. RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS
WILL THEN PERSIST INTO FRI BEFORE A LO PRES IF FORECAST TO DEVELOP
AND DEEPEN NEAR JAMES BAY. A SHARPENING PRES GRADIENT AROUND THIS
FEATURE WILL BRING INCREASING NW WINDS...WHICH COULD REACH GALE
FORCE ON SAT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
610 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER MISSOURI WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST ACROSS LAKE
ERIE BY THURSDAY MORNING AND ON TO JAMES BAY BY FRIDAY NIGHT PULLING
A SERIES OF COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
WILL STAY OVER THE EASTERN LAKES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A FEW SHRA HAVE SPREAD OUT FURTHER EAST THAN THE MODELS HAD
PROJECTED EARLIER SO HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
THE MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN SLOWLY MOVING A BAND OF SHRA/TSRA
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA TODAY INTO WED MORNING. SOME SHEAR PRESENT
BUT INSTABILITY NOT OVER GREAT. SPC KEEPING SVR THREAT SOUTH OF THE
AREA. MAY SEE SOME STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS SINCE WINDS WILL
ALREADY BE GUSTING AROUND 30 TO 40 MPH ANYWAY...BUT CURRENTLY DON`T
EXPECT SIGNIFICANT SEVERE STORMS.
THE OTHER THREAT COULD BE FROM FLOODING IF SOME OF THE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN LINGERS OVER ANY PARTICULAR AREA. IN GENERAL...LOOKING FOR .75
TO 1.5 INCHES OF RAINFALL AS THE SLOW MOVING BAND MAKES ITS WAY
ACROSS THE AREA. 3 HR FLOOD GUIDANCE RANGING BETWEEN 2 AND 3 INCHES
SO IT CURRENTLY APPEARS THAT WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE AN INCH AND
A HALF OR LESS OF RAINFALL WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOODING SO WON`T
PUT UP A FLOOD WATCH.
TODAY WILL BE THE LAST WARM DAY FOR A WHILE...MAYBE FOR THE REST OF
THE SEASON. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE 70S...RANGING FROM MOSTLY LOWER
70S IN THE WEST WHERE THE RAIN ARRIVES THIS MORNING TO THE MID TO
UPPER 70S IN THE EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE LAST OF THE SLOW MOVING BAND OF RAIN SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE CWA
DURING THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF DAYLIGHT WED MORNING. A DRIER SLOT OF
MID LEVEL AIR PUSHES ACROSS THE CWA IN THE WAKE OF THE RAIN BAND SO
EXPECT A BREAK IN THE RAINFALL FOR A WHILE. LATER IN THE DAY...SOME
DAYTIME WARMING UNDER THE UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL LIKELY
TRIGGER SOME CONVECTIVE SHRA AS THE LOWER LEVELS STILL STAY FAIRLY
MOIST. ISOLATED THUNDER MAY OCCUR BUT MOSTLY LOOKING FOR JUST SHRA
DUE TO WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER.
THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW WILL TAKE UNTIL LATE THU NIGHT TO LIFT NE
OF THE CWA SO THE AIRMASS WILL STAY UNSTABLE WITH CLOUDS AND GOOD
CHANCES FOR SHRA HANGING AROUND INTO THU NIGHT. DRIER AIR SHOULD
START PUSHING NE ACROSS THE AREA THU NIGHT INTO FRI CAUSING THE
THREAT FOR SHRA TO SHIFT INTO MAINLY THE NE BY FRI. A REINFORCING
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SE ACROSS THE AREA FRI EVENING.
MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THIS FRONT BUT WITH ADDED HELP FROM LAKE
ERIE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME SHRA IN THE NE.
TEMPS WED THRU FRI SHOULD RUN CLOSE TO NORMAL SINCE THE COLDER AIR
DOES NOT START TO ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER THE FRONT PASSES FRI NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MODELS HAVE THE SAME IDEA BUT TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE UPPER
TROF AND SURFACE FEATURES FOR THE PERIOD.
SOME LAKE INDUCED SHOWERS MAINLY OVER EXTREME NE OH AND NW PA
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO INDICATE A LOT MORE QPF
THEN WOULD BE EXPECTED. CONTINUED THE TREND TO KEEP MOST OF THE RAIN
SHOWERS IN THE SNOW BELT AREA. THE LAKE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE
DIFFERENCE WILL BE AROUND 15 TO 16C.
ON SUNDAY THE ECMWF HAS HIGH PRESSURE OVER MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES
WHILE THE GFS HAS THE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND A TROF
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. CONTINUED CHANCE POPS IN THE SNOW BELT
AREA SUNDAY.
BY MONDAY THE ECMWF MOVES THE HIGH TO THE EAST AND A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES WHILE THE GFS HAS A RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. KEPT MONDAY DRY AT THIS TIME UNTIL THE TRENDS ARE CLEARER.
HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
IN THE MEANTIME THE AREA OF RAIN OVER INDIANA WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EAST AS THE 700 MB FLOW IS SOUTHERLY. THE HRRR MODELS TIMING IS
GOOD IN BRINGING THE SHOWERS INTO TOL AND FDY AROUND 11Z AND THEN
IT TRIES TO SHIFT SOME SHOWERS EASTWARD A LITTLE TOO FAST. WENT
WITH A SLOWER TIMING OF THE SHOWERS GETTING TO MFD AROUND 15Z AND
CLE 18Z AND ERI 23Z. IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS MVFR CONDITIONS BUT
THE PREDOMINANT MAY BE VFR...NOT TOTALLY CONFIDENT IN THAT.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED IN THE SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON. CONFIDENT IN THAT IS LOW...SO NO MENTION OF THUNDER IN
THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. VFR CONDITIONS AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE DURING THE OVERNIGHT. MENTIONED
SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT A FEW SPOTS WHERE THE WINDS ARE LIGHT
AS THE WINDS ALOFT ARE BECOMING STRONG QUICKLY. SOME QUESTION HOW
STRONG THE WINDS WILL GET. ONCE THE SHOWERS START THE WINDS WILL
NOT BE AS STRONG. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE AROUND NOON MAINLY
OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND A PORTION OF NE OHIO INCLUDING MFD AND CLE
AND POSSIBLY CAK. THE 850 MB WINDS GET TO AROUND 70 KTS AT NOON
WHICH IS STRONG EVEN IN WARM ADVECTION.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
VERY UNSETTLED ON THE LAKE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. A LOW PRESSURE AREA
MOVING THROUGH THE THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THE NEXT FEW DAYS WAS
CAUSING A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND INCREASING STRONG WINDS
JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE FOR TODAY. THE LAKE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE
DIFFERENCE WILL BE NIL SO SOME MIXING WILL OCCUR. BECAUSE OF THAT
WILL ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS 20 TO
25 KNOTS DECREASING BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING. THE WAVES IN THE
NEARSHORE WILL NOT BE THAT HIGH. SOME QUESTION TO THE TIMING WHETHER
THE WINDS WILL DECREASE BEFORE EVENING OVER THE WESTERN LAKE. AT
THIS TIME WITH THE UNCERTAINTY WILL TO WITH AN EXPIRATION TIME OF 9
PM ON THE WEST END AND 10 PM ON THE EAST.
THE WINDS ON WEDNESDAY WILL NOT BE TOO STRONG AS THE LOW WEAKENS.
ON THURSDAY A WEAK FRONT OR TROF MOVES THROUGH AND THAT COULD CAUSE
WINDS AND WAVES NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON THE EAST END
OF THE LAKE.
ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE FRIDAY AND THAT WILL
DEFINITELY PROMPT THE NEED FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS WINDS COULD
GET UP TO 30 KNOTS. THAT THREAT WILL LAST INTO SUNDAY ON THE ENTIRE
LAKE AND POSSIBLY INTO EARLY MONDAY ON THE EAST END. THE THREAT FOR
SUSTAINED WINDS REACHING GALE FORCE FRIDAY NIGHT IS POSSIBLE AS THE
COLD ADVECTION IS SIGNIFICANT AND THE WINDS ALOFT ARE NEAR 35
KNOTS...THIS THREAT WILL BE MONITORED.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LEZ146>149.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LEZ142>145.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...ADAMS
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1103 AM CDT TUE OCT 14 2014
.UPDATE...
CURRENTLY SKIES ARE CLOUDY AND TEMPS ARE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE REGION. SOME
SHOWERS ARE PRESENT IN THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. HAVE
ADJUSTED TEMPS DOWN A BIT IN SOME AREAS AND POPS UP ACCORDING TO
RECENT TRENDS AND THE LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE. UPDATED GRIDS AND
ZONES ARE AVAILABLE.
ZDM
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 AM CDT TUE OCT 14 2014/
IR SATELLITE SHOWING MERIDIONAL FLOW ACROSS THE COUNTRY WITH A
RIDGE DOMINATING THE WESTERN HALF AND A SECOND ALONG THE EAST
COAST. SANDWICHED BETWEEN WAS THE CURRENT STORM/UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTERED IN NORTHEAST MISSOURI...WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE HANGING
BACK ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND AS FAR SOUTH AS THE ARKLATEX.
CLOSER TO HOME PATCHY AREAS OF POST FRONTAL LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE
WAS OCCURRING UNDER CLOUDY SKIES...WHILE WINDS WERE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST OCCASIONALLY GUSTING TO NEAR 20 MPH IN THE DELTA.
TEMPERATURES HAVE SHOWN ONLY SLIGHT COOLING SINCE MIDNIGHT WITH
MANY READINGS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
FOR TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
STACKED STORM IN THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL SLOWLY MEANDER
EAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST...KEEPING CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND BREEZY WEATHER IN THE
MIDSOUTH. ONLY CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS A BUMP UP TO
OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS THE NORTH DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND AN
ANTICIPATED MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. BEST THREAT FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS...BOTH THIS AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WILL LIE
EAST OF A CORNING ARKANSAS TO A SAVANNAH TENNESSEE LINE.
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BRIEFLY BUILD
OVER THE MIDSOUTH STARTING THURSDAY AS THE WESTERN RIDGE MOVES
INTO THE PLAINS AND DEAMPLIFIES. THIS WILL RESULT IN A MORE ZONAL
UPPER LEVEL FLOW...BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY A WARMER AND DRIER TREND
FOR OUR AREA. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BACK MORE SOUTHERLY...WITH
TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO ABOVE NORMAL. MANY FOLKS WILL SEE
HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. ONE THING
TO NOTE THOUGH...THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
OVER THE LOWER TENNESSEE RIVER COUNTIES ON THURSDAY.
BY LATE FRIDAY THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE FIRST OF TWO DESCENDING
SHORTWAVES IN THE UPPER MIDWEST. THESE FEATURES WILL CARVE OUT A
NEW TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION AND SEND A COUPLE
OF WEAK COLD FRONTS THROUGH THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED
WITH THE FIRST FRONT LATE FRIDAY...WITH ONLY PASSING CLOUDS
CURRENTLY EXPECTED. THE SECOND WILL HAVE A BIT MORE ENERGY AND
MOISTURE...GIVING THE MIDSOUTH MORE CLOUD COVER AND A THREAT FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS FROM LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HAVE GONE
COOLER THAN THE EXTENDED MODEL FORECASTS WITH TEMPERATURES STARTING
SATURDAY...BUT THIS WILL ONLY RESULT IN THE REGION STAYING VERY
CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS.
JAB
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE (14/12Z-15/12Z)
MVFR CEILINGS WILL OCCUR TODAY ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.
CONDITIONS MAY DROP TO IFR THIS MORNING WITH AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN.
SW TO W WINDS 10-15 KTS AND GUSTY.
AFTER 15/00Z...CEILINGS LIFTING TO MOSTLY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS
LINGERING AROUND KMKL. WESTERLY WINDS DIMINISHING TO BETWEEN 6 AND 9
KTS.
JCL
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
203 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN TODAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD FROM THE WEST THROUGH LATE WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT
COULD EFFECT THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TODAY WITH A CLOSED
LOW POSITIONED OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A STRONG
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WELL OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...WHILE A
POTENT COLD FRONT STRETCHING ACROSS EASTERN TN...WESTERN GA AND
THE CENTRAL FL PANHANDLE AS OF EARLY AFTERNOON SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST.
SCATTERED CELLULAR CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST GA AND FAR SOUTHERN SC EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER CONCERN
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
EVENING AS A LINEAR CONVECTIVE LINE APPROACHES IN ADVANCE OF THE
COLD FRONT WHERE THE STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE FOUND.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY TO HOW MUCH THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE ABLE
TO DESTABILIZE IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT GIVEN THE INCREASING
HIGH LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDINESS...BUT WITH TEMPERATURES ALREADY IN
THE LOWER TO MID 80S AND DEW POINTS IN THE 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA THIS MAY NOT A BIG ENOUGH NEGATING FACTOR.
MOST OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MESOSCALE MODELS...INCLUDING THE
HRRR...RUC13...AND OUR LOCALLY RUN 4KM WRF MODELS...SHOW THE
LINEAR CONVECTIVE LINE ENTERING FAR INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
AFTER 3 OR 4 PM...MOVING THROUGH THE SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY EARLY
THIS EVENING...THEN INTO COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA LATE THIS EVENING
INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. HRRR MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW CAPE
VALUES REMAINING ELEVATED ABOVE 1000 J/KG THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EVENING...WITH SOME BACKING OF THE WINDS OCCURRING NEAR THE
SURFACE RESULTING IN SOME CLOCKWISE CURVATURE IN THE HODOGRAPH.
THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN
STRONG 30-40 KT LOW LEVEL JETTING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW WEAK SHORT-LIVED TORNADOES WITHIN
BOWING/BROKEN LINE SEGMENTS GIVEN THE SHEAR PROFILES.
OVERALL...THE SEVERE THREAT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD AND
THE CURRENT SLIGHT RISK FROM SPC SEEMS REASONABLE. IN ADDITION...THE
SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES AND STORMS
APPROACH THE SC COAST GIVEN LESSENING INSTABILITY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD REACH IN TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA....EXCEPT LOWER 80S ACROSS FAR INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. CONDITIONS WILL
ALSO BE BREEZY AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW GUSTS UPWARDS
OF AROUND 25 MPH POSSIBLE.
OVERNIGHT...THE STRONGEST CONVECTION WILL WORK ITS WAY OFFSHORE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT EARLY...BUT COULD NOT RULE OUT SOME ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS UNTIL THE ACTUAL FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT OFFSHORE BY
DAYBREAK...BUT ONGOING SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY
EAST OF INTERSTATE 95 AS MOISTURE LINGERS OVER THE AREA AND
ADDITIONAL FORCING OCCURS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID/UPPER LVL LOW PASSING TO OUR NORTH. ACTIVITY SHOULD QUICKLY
SHIFT EAST AND OFFSHORE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT A FEW SHOWERS
COULD LINGER OVER THE TRI- COUNTY AREA WHERE FORCING FROM THE
MID/UPPER LVL LOW IS GREATEST. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS WILL BE COOLER
POST FROPA...BUT A DOWNSLOPING WIND COMPONENT SHOULD OFFSET MOST
COLD-AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PASSING TO OUR NORTH.
IN GENERAL...HIGH TEMPS WILL PEAK IN THE UPPER 70S OVER MOST
LOCATIONS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SHIFTING
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. EXPECT TEMPS TO BE SOME 10-15 DEGREES
COOLER...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS REACHING THE LOW/MID 50S AWAY FROM THE
COAST.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MUCH QUIETER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS DRY
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD FROM THE WEST UNDER A ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT. TEMPS SHOULD SLOWLY MODIFY THROUGH EARLY WEEKEND WITH
SUBSTANTIAL SUNSHINE AND A DOWNSLOPING WIND COMPONENT IN PLACE. IN
GENERAL...AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE IN THE UPPER 70S ON
THURSDAY...THEN AROUND 80 ON FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE IN
THE LOW/MID 50S AWAY FROM THE COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH DRY
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE PATTERN UNDER A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. TEMPS
WILL SLOWLY MODIFY TO THE LOWER 80S THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD ALSO SHOW A GRADUAL WARMING TREND...FROM
MID/UPPER 50S FRIDAY NIGHT TO UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT COULD EFFECT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT
IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL...THUS HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST
THROUGH MONDAY. PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD THEN INCREASE AS WE HEAD INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPRAOCH FROM THE WEST AND MOVE ACROSS
THE TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP...WITH A LINEAR LINE OF STRONGER
COVECTION EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE FRONT NEARS. SHOWERS WILL THEN LINGER
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS UNTIL THE ACTUAL
FRONT PASSES.
AT KCHS...THE FORECAST INDICATES VFR WITH SOME SHOWERS IN THE
VICINITY INTO EARLY EVENING...WITH THE LINE OF STRONGER COVECTION
MOVING THROUGH IN THE 02-06Z TIME FRAME. THIS LINE WILL LIKELY BE
ACCOMPANYIED BY THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS AND
MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS.
AT KSAV...THE FORECAST INDICATES VFR WITH SOME SHOWERS THROUGH
MID/LATE AFTERNOON...WITH THE LINE OF STRONGER COVECTION MOVING
THROUGH IN THE 22-02Z TIME FRAME. THIS LINE WILL LIKELY BE
ACCOMPANYIED BY THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS AND
MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CHANCES OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AT
EITHER TERMINAL WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT SHIFTS
OFFSHORE WITH SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
THEN EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEEK
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA.
&&
.MARINE...
A STEADY ONSHORE COMPONENT FROM THE SE HAS BEEN BUILDING SEAS AT A
SLOW BUT STEADY CLIP. THE ONSHORE TRAJECTORY AND FORECAST OF
CLOSE TO 20 KT AT TIMES OFFSHORE HAVE PUSHED SEAS INTO THE MARGINAL
4-6 FT RANGE INTO ALL NEAR SHORE WATERS AND WE HAVE RAISED SMALL
CRAFT FLAGS FOR ALL COASTAL ZONES. WE INITIALIZED WITH SCA OVER
ALL COASTAL WATERS AND THEY WILL CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST LATER
TONIGHT. IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR... NEIGHBORING WATER TEMPS DOWN
A BIT FROM ADJACENT LAND MASS TEMP EXPECTATIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND
WE CAPPED SSE FLOW AT 15-20 KT.
A BIG POTENTIAL RISK FOR MARINERS THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WOULD BE STRONG LINEAR CONVECTION DRIVING OFF THE COAST
WITH RISKS FOR WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35 KT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE ONGOING FOR MUCH OF THE WATERS INTO DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY
WHILE A STRONG COLD FRONT SHIFTS OVER THE WATERS. THE ENHANCED
GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT SHOULD PRODUCE WIND GUSTS AS HIGH
AS 20-25 KT WHILE VEERING FROM SOUTH TO WEST/SOUTHWEST AND SEAS
NEAR 4-6 FT IN NEARSHORE WATERS AND 6-7 FT IN OFFSHORE GEORGIA
WATERS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AS THE
FRONT SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. LATEST TRENDS
INDICATE THAT BOTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL DECREASE/SUBSIDE TO BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS BY LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY. THUS ALL
SCA/S WILL LIKELY END BY 18Z WEDNESDAY.
WE COULD SEE ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF SURGING WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS A MID/UPPER LVL LOW BEGINS TO SHIFT OFFSHORE LATE...BUT
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. WINDS/SEAS WILL
THEN SLOWLY IMPROVE MID TO LATE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE WATERS...BUT LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM DISTANT TC GONZALO WILL
LIKELY IMPACT THE LOCAL WATERS THURSDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
RIP CURRENTS...A SMALL LINGERING BACK SWELL ALONG WITH SOUTH AND SE
WINDS AT 15-20 MPH WILL SUPPORT A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT
THE BEACHES TODAY.
&&
.CLIMATE...
OCTOBER 14 RECORD MAX TEMPS...
KCHS...88 1990 AND PREVIOUS YEARS.
KCXM...85 1975
KSAV...88 1995 AND PREVIOUS YEARS.
OCTOBER 14 RECORD HIGH MIN TEMPS...
KCHS...71 1986
KCXM...74 1997
KSAV...72 1883
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ352-354.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ350-374.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...JAQ
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...JAQ
MARINE...DPB
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
1217 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN TODAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD FROM THE WEST THROUGH LATE WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT
COULD EFFECT THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TODAY WITH A CLOSED
LOW POSITIONED OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A STRONG
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WELL OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...WHILE A
POTENT COLD FRONT STRETCHING ACROSS CENTRAL TN...THE AL/GA STATE
LATE AND THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE AS OF MIDDAY SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST.
THE EARLIER THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER HAS ENDED AS THE IMMEDIATE
UPSTREAM CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED AND HAD ITS EASTWARD PROGRESS
SLOWED SIGNIFICANTLY BY THE AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. FOR
THESE REASON THE TORNADO WATCH ISSUED EARLIER WAS CANCELLED AS OF
1015 AM FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST GA AND SOUTHEAST SC.
STRATIFORM RAINS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WORK INTO FAR INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CONCERN FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING AS
A LINEAR CONVECTIVE LINE APPROACHES IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT
WHERE THE STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE FOUND. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY TO HOW MUCH THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE ABLE TO DESTABILIZE
IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT GIVEN THE INCREASING HIGH LEVEL
DEBRIS CLOUDINESS...BUT WITH TEMPERATURES ALREADY IN THE LOWER TO
MID 80S AND DEW POINTS IN THE 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MAY
NOT A BIG ENOUGH NEGATING FACTOR.
MOST OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MESOSCALE MODELS...INCLUDING THE
HRRR...RUC13...AND OUR LOCALLY RUN 4KM WRF MODELS...SHOW THE
LINEAR CONVECTIVE LINE ENTERING FAR INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
AFTER 3 OR 4 PM...MOVING THROUGH THE SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY EARLY
THIS EVENING...THEN INTO COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA LATE THIS EVENING
INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. HRRR MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW CAPE
VALUES REMAINING ELEVATED ABOVE 1000 J/KG THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EVENING...WITH SOME BACKING OF THE WINDS OCCURRING NEAR THE
SURFACE RESULTING IN SOME CLOCKWISE CURVATURE IN THE HODOGRAPH.
THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN
STRONG 30-40 KT LOW LEVEL JETTING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW WEAK SHORT-LIVED TORNADOES WITHIN
BOWING/BROKEN LINE SEGMENTS GIVEN THE SHEAR PROFILES.
OVERALL...THE SEVERE THREAT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD AND
THE CURRENT SLIGHT RISK FROM SPC SEEMS REASONABLE. IN ADDITION...THE
SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES AND STORMS
APPROACH THE SC COAST GIVEN LESSENING INSTABILITY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD REACH IN TO THE LOWER AND MID 80S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. CONDITIONS COULD ALSO BECOME BREEZY AT
TIMES THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW GUSTS UPWARDS OF 20-25 MPH
POSSIBLE.
OVERNIGHT...THE STRONGEST CONVECTION WILL WORK ITS WAY OFFSHORE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT EARLY...BUT COULD NOT RULE OUT SOME ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS UNTIL THE ACTUAL FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT OFFSHORE BY
DAYBREAK...BUT ONGOING SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY
EAST OF INTERSTATE 95 AS MOISTURE LINGERS OVER THE AREA AND
ADDITIONAL FORCING OCCURS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID/UPPER LVL LOW PASSING TO OUR NORTH. ACTIVITY SHOULD QUICKLY
SHIFT EAST AND OFFSHORE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT A FEW SHOWERS
COULD LINGER OVER THE TRI- COUNTY AREA WHERE FORCING FROM THE
MID/UPPER LVL LOW IS GREATEST. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS WILL BE COOLER
POST FROPA...BUT A DOWNSLOPING WIND COMPONENT SHOULD OFFSET MOST
COLD-AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PASSING TO OUR NORTH.
IN GENERAL...HIGH TEMPS WILL PEAK IN THE UPPER 70S OVER MOST
LOCATIONS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SHIFTING
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. EXPECT TEMPS TO BE SOME 10-15 DEGREES
COOLER...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS REACHING THE LOW/MID 50S AWAY FROM THE
COAST.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MUCH QUIETER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS DRY
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD FROM THE WEST UNDER A ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT. TEMPS SHOULD SLOWLY MODIFY THROUGH EARLY WEEKEND WITH
SUBSTANTIAL SUNSHINE AND A DOWNSLOPING WIND COMPONENT IN PLACE. IN
GENERAL...AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE IN THE UPPER 70S ON
THURSDAY...THEN AROUND 80 ON FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE IN
THE LOW/MID 50S AWAY FROM THE COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH DRY
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE PATTERN UNDER A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. TEMPS
WILL SLOWLY MODIFY TO THE LOWER 80S THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD ALSO SHOW A GRADUAL WARMING TREND...FROM
MID/UPPER 50S FRIDAY NIGHT TO UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT COULD EFFECT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT
IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL...THUS HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST
THROUGH MONDAY. PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD THEN INCREASE AS WE HEAD INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WE HAVE NUDGED TSRA CHANCES UP SOONER INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AT
KSAV AND LATER AFTERNOON AT KCHS GIVEN LATEST REGION RADAR TRENDS
AT 1130Z. HIGH CLOUDS WILL THICKEN THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS UNTIL RAINS ARRIVE LATER TODAY. TONIGHT UNSETTLED
WEATHER WITH CHANCES FOR TSTMS...HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES WITH MVFR/IFR
VSBYS AT TIMES IN DOWNPOURS. HEAVIER RAINS SHOULD SHIFT INTO SE
SOUTH CAROLINA AFTER MIDNIGHT...DIMINISHING AT KSAV LATE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...HIGH CHANCES OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AT
EITHER TERMINAL WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT SHIFTS
OFFSHORE WITH SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEEK WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA.
&&
.MARINE...
A STEADY ONSHORE COMPONENT FROM THE SE HAS BEEN BUILDING SEAS AT A
SLOW BUT STEADY CLIP. THE ONSHORE TRAJECTORY AND FORECAST OF
CLOSE TO 20 KT AT TIMES OFFSHORE HAVE PUSHED SEAS INTO THE MARGINAL
4-6 FT RANGE INTO ALL NEAR SHORE WATERS AND WE HAVE RAISED SMALL
CRAFT FLAGS FOR ALL COASTAL ZONES. WE INITIALIZED WITH SCA OVER
ALL COASTAL WATERS AND THEY WILL CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST LATER
TONIGHT. IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR... NEIGHBORING WATER TEMPS DOWN
A BIT FROM ADJACENT LAND MASS TEMP EXPECTATIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND
WE CAPPED SSE FLOW AT 15-20 KT.
A BIG POTENTIAL RISK FOR MARINERS THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WOULD BE STRONG LINEAR CONVECTION DRIVING OFF THE COAST
WITH RISKS FOR WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35 KT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE ONGOING FOR MUCH OF THE WATERS INTO DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY
WHILE A STRONG COLD FRONT SHIFTS OVER THE WATERS. THE ENHANCED
GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT SHOULD PRODUCE WIND GUSTS AS HIGH
AS 20-25 KT WHILE VEERING FROM SOUTH TO WEST/SOUTHWEST AND SEAS
NEAR 4-6 FT IN NEARSHORE WATERS AND 6-7 FT IN OFFSHORE GEORGIA
WATERS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AS THE
FRONT SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. LATEST TRENDS
INDICATE THAT BOTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL DECREASE/SUBSIDE TO BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS BY LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY. THUS ALL
SCA/S WILL LIKELY END BY 18Z WEDNESDAY.
WE COULD SEE ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF SURGING WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS A MID/UPPER LVL LOW BEGINS TO SHIFT OFFSHORE LATE...BUT
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. WINDS/SEAS WILL
THEN SLOWLY IMPROVE MID TO LATE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE WATERS...BUT LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM DISTANT TC GONZALO WILL
LIKELY IMPACT THE LOCAL WATERS THURSDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
RIP CURRENTS...A SMALL LINGERING BACK SWELL ALONG WITH SOUTH AND SE
WINDS AT 15-20 MPH WILL SUPPORT A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT
THE BEACHES TODAY.
&&
.CLIMATE...
OCTOBER 14 RECORD MAX TEMPS...
KCHS...88 1990 AND PREVIOUS YEARS.
KCXM...85 1975
KSAV...88 1995 AND PREVIOUS YEARS.
OCTOBER 14 RECORD HIGH MIN TEMPS...
KCHS...71 1986
KCXM...74 1997
KSAV...72 1883
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ352-354.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ350-374.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...JAQ
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...
MARINE...DPB
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
103 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 237 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014
TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ARE GOING TO DOMINATE INDIANA WEATHER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE FIRST WAS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING. IT IS PREDICTED TO SHOW ALMOST NO
MOVEMENT UNTIL THURSDAY WHEN IT SHOULD DISSIPATE.
SHORTLY THEREAFTER...A SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS GOING TO
DEVELOP FROM WESTERN ONTARIO ACROSS INDIANA...TO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. NOT MUCH CHANGE WILL OCCUR UNTIL MONDAY...WHEN HIGH PRESSURE
OUGHT TO MOVE ACROSS THE HOOSIER STATE FROM THE WEST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 949 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014
FOR THE MORNING UPDATE...INCREASED POPS NORTHEAST AND DECREASED THEM
IN THE SOUTHEAST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO BETTER MATCH RADAR OBS.
FOR THE AFTERNOON HRRR AND RAP ARE BOTH DEPICTING LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF SHOWERS ONCE THIS INITIAL WAVE MOVES OUT. HOWEVER THERE IS
ANOTHER WEAKER WAVE THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER LOW THIS
AFTERNOON SO WENT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND RETAINED SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDER THROUGH 0Z WITH SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
AVAILABLE. DECREASED TEMPERATURES TO HIGHS IN THE MID 60S ACROSS
THE AREA WITH EXPECTED BROKEN TO OVERCAST CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE
DAY AND COLD ADVECTION AT 850 MB AND ALL LATEST OPERATIONAL MODELS
GOING COLDER THAN GOING FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 237 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014
POPS REMAIN THE MAIN ISSUE.
GUIDANCE POPS TONIGHT DECLINE FROM WEST TO EAST. THIS SUGGESTS THEY
EXPECT SOMETHING TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AND THEN GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE. THATS WHAT HAPPENED YESTERDAY INTO THIS MORNING.
THIS MAKES SENSE WITH ALL MODELS HAVING A FRONT TO OUR WEST BY
EVENING. BEYOND THAT PRESSURE ADVECTION ON THE 1.5 POTENTIAL
VORTICITY SURFACE SUGGESTS UPWARD FORCING WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
NORTHERN CWA PAST 00Z. GIVEN THAT LIKELY POPS LOOK GOOD IN THE
NORTHEAST AS WELL AS THE WEST. THE SOUTHEAST IS GOING TO BE FARTHER
AWAY FROM THE FORCING SO CHANCE POPS SHOULD SUFFICE THERE.
BY WEDNESDAY A FRONT IS LIKELY TO BE RIGHT OVER THE CWA. WHILE
DAYTIME HEATING IS APT TO BE MEAGER...IT WILL BE COMBINED WITH
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT. THE HIGHS POPS FROM BOTH FORMS OF
GUIDANCE LOOK GOOD.
THERE IS DECENT MODEL CONSENSUS AN UPPER LOW OVER OUR AREA WILL MOVE
OFF TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...REDUCING THE CHANCE
OF RAIN. HOWEVER THERE IS ALSO MODEL CONSENSUS CYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW
WILL PERSIST. THIS OPENS POSSIBILITY OF EMBEDDED TROUGHS CAUSING
CONVERGENCE. A SLIGHT CHANCE SHOULD BE RETAINED FOR BOTH PERIODS.
WITH THE ALREADY MENTIONED FRONT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE OVER THE CWA
LATE NIGHT...TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN
TODAY. THE GUIDANCE IS CLOSE AND WELL SUPPORTED BY THE DETERMINISTIC
TEMPERATURE FIELDS. THERE IS NO REASON TO CHANGE THE MOS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014
THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSITION INTO SOME WEAK TROUGHING AT
THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. HOWEVER...GFS AND EURO ARE IN
AGREEMENT IN REGARD TO SYSTEM STAYING TOO FAR NORTH FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. AS A RESULT...WILL KEEP THE
DRY FORECAST FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON THAT LATEST
INITIALIZATION PRODUCED.
FURTHER OUT...MODELS BECOME INCONSISTENT...AND REGIONAL
INITIALIZATION IS STRUGGLING WITH LOCATION OF PRECIP CHANCES FROM
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. OVERALL...THE INITIALIZATION
SEEMS TO BE TRENDING TOWARD THE EURO AND A WEAK UPPER TROUGH
BRINGING LIGHT PRECIP TO PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
MEANWHILE...THE GFS IS SHOWING NO INDICATIONS OF AN UPPER TROUGH
DURING THAT TIME PERIOD AND FAVORS SUBSIDENCE OVER CENTRAL INDIANA.
WILL NOT MAKE CHANGES TO INITIALIZATION AT THIS TIME UNTIL MODELS
SHOW BETTER AGREEMENT.
TEMPS WILL START OUT ABOVE NORMAL WITH WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON
FRIDAY. THIS WILL PUT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S.
HOWEVER...TEMPS WILL FALL CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD AS SURFACE WINDS TAKE ON MORE OF A NORTHWESTERLY
COMPONENT. THIS MEANS HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S AND LOWS IN
THE 40S.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 141800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1256 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014
CEILINGS WILL LIKELY BOUNCE BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON SO WILL GO WITH PREVAILING HIGH END MVFR. POP UP SHOWERS
ARE PROBABLE BUT WITH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING PLACEMENT AND BRIEF
NATURE WILL JUST INCLUDE VCSH FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TONIGHT DOWN TO IFR/LIFR WITH
BOTH CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES DROPPING WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND THE UPPER LOW DRAWING CLOSER. THERE COULD BE A FEW
SHOWERS AROUND TONIGHT BUT NOT HIGH ENOUGH PROBABILITY TO INCLUDE.
SHOWERS BECOME MORE LIKELY WEDNESDAY BY LATE MORNING WITH THE
UPPER LOW OVERHEAD AND SOME DAYTIME HEATING SO INCLUDED VCSH
DURING THAT TIME. WIND GUSTS SHOULD LAST THROUGH AROUND 0-3Z
BEFORE DROPPING OFF TONIGHT AND DO NOT EXPECT GUSTS WEDNESDAY.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...CP
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
204 PM MDT TUE OCT 14 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 111 PM MDT TUE OCT 14 2014
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW BLOCKY
RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN ACROSS THE US...WITH AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER
THE WESTER US THE DOMINATE FEATURE FOR OUR CWA. AT THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IS IN PLACE OVER OUR CWA WITH A WEAK LEE TROUGH BEGINNING
TO DEVELOP OVER COLORADO.
DUE TO THE STRONG RIDGE KEEPING CONDITIONS CLEAR AND DRY ACROSS OUR
CWA...PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS ON MODERATING TEMPS AND
POTENTIAL FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY.
SOUTHERLY GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO TIGHTEN AS LEE TROUGH CONTINUES TO
DEEPEN WEDNESDAY...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING AROUND 25 MPH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPS SHOULD WARM TO THE UPPER
70S...POSSIBLY THE LOWER 80S. MODELS ARE TENDING TO ADVECT HIGHER
TD VALUES NORTH WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW...HOWEVER IT APPEARS THE
BETTER MOISTURE SHOULD BE CUT OFF TO THE SOUTH AT LEAST THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE AFTERNOON. MIXING HEIGHTS ARE SOMEWHAT LIMITED
BY ELEVATED INVERSION...HOWEVER WE SHOULD STILL SEE TD VALUES MIX
TO THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S IN THE WEST. RESULT WOULD BE RH VALUES
RIGHT ABOVE 15 PERCENT. AFTER COORDINATION WITH PARTNERS CURRENT
FUELS SHOULD SUPPORT EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH FOR ALL OF OUR CWA
EXCEPT FOR GREELEY AND WICHITA COUNTIES. CONDITIONS WILL BE
CLOSE TO CRITERIA...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN A 3HR CROSSOVER OF
WIND/RH IS LOW SO A RED FLAG WARNING IS PLANNED DURING THIS UPDATE
WEDNESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 PM MDT TUE OCT 14 2014
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD IS NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY. A BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN FOR
THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD SHALL LEAD TO LITTLE TO NO HAZARDOUS
WEATHER THROUGHOUT.
BEGINNING WITH THURSDAY...A STRONG...FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PASSES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS TROUGH ALSO FORCES A WEAK COLD
FRONT THROUGH. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS TROUGH SHALL BE A SLIGHT
COOLING OF TEMPERATURES...ALBEIT REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL...DRIER AIR
AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS. FIRE WEATHER MAY BECOME A CONCERN FOR
THURSDAY IF TEMPERATURES ARE WARMER AND DEWPOINTS LOWER THAN
CURRENTLY ADVERTISED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO BRING SOME CONCERN THAT
DRIER AIR ALOFT COULD MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE AND BRING MUCH LOWER
HUMIDITIES. CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
NEAR 20 PERCENT AND WIND GUSTS 30-35 MPH. MADE SOME CALLS TO LOCAL
FIRE WEATHER PARTNERS AND CONSENSUS SEEMS TO BE FUELS ARE CURED
ENOUGH TO CARRY A FIRE THREAT. FOR NOW...WILL MENTION CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE HWO BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING
A WATCH.
FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...EXPECTING QUIET WEATHER FOR THE MOST
PART. FORECAST GUIDANCE IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A SYSTEM MOVING
IN SUNDAY. THE SYSTEM IS FAIRLY WEAK AND MOST GUIDANCE ANTICIPATES A
FURTHER SOUTH TRACK AND SLOWER PACE COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. WHILE A
SHOWER OR TWO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT COMPLETELY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...DID NOT THINK THAT A PRECIP MENTION WAS REQUIRED.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES LOOKS TO BREAK
DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THIS HAPPENS...A TROUGH REPLACES THE RIDGE
AND BRINGS SOUTH WINDS AND HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT...PRIMING THE
AREA FOR POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION BY MID-WEEK. THIS SYSTEM REPRESENTS
THE NEXT BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AND POTENTIALLY A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS IF TEMPERATURES/INSTABILITY ARE HIGH ENOUGH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1110 AM MDT TUE OCT 14 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK WITH CLEAR
SKIES PREVAILING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER BOTH
TERMINALS TODAY WILL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS AROUND 5KT BECOMING
VARIABLE EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD AND CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.
SURFACE TROUGH BUILDING WEDNESDAY WILL RESULT IN WINDS SHIFTING TO
THE SOUTH AND INCREASING TO AROUND 12KT AT BOTH TERMINALS BY LATE
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
111 PM MDT TUE OCT 14 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 111 PM MDT TUE OCT 14 2014
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW BLOCKY
RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN ACROSS THE US...WITH AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER
THE WESTER US THE DOMINATE FEATURE FOR OUR CWA. AT THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IS IN PLACE OVER OUR CWA WITH A WEAK LEE TROUGH BEGINNING
TO DEVELOP OVER COLORADO.
DUE TO THE STRONG RIDGE KEEPING CONDITIONS CLEAR AND DRY ACROSS OUR
CWA...PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS ON MODERATING TEMPS AND
POTENTIAL FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY.
SOUTHERLY GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO TIGHTEN AS LEE TROUGH CONTINUES TO
DEEPEN WEDNESDAY...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING AROUND 25 MPH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPS SHOULD WARM TO THE UPPER
70S...POSSIBLY THE LOWER 80S. MODELS ARE TENDING TO ADVECT HIGHER
TD VALUES NORTH WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW...HOWEVER IT APPEARS THE
BETTER MOISTURE SHOULD BE CUT OFF TO THE SOUTH AT LEAST THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE AFTERNOON. MIXING HEIGHTS ARE SOMEWHAT LIMITED
BY ELEVATED INVERSION...HOWEVER WE SHOULD STILL SEE TD VALUES MIX
TO THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S IN THE WEST. RESULT WOULD BE RH VALUES
RIGHT ABOVE 15 PERCENT. AFTER COORDINATION WITH PARTNERS CURRENT
FUELS SHOULD SUPPORT EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH FOR ALL OF OUR CWA
EXCEPT FOR GREELEY AND WICHITA COUNTIES. CONDITIONS WILL BE
CLOSE TO CRITERIA...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN A 3HR CROSSOVER OF
WIND/RH IS LOW SO A RED FLAG WARNING IS PLANNED DURING THIS UPDATE
WEDNESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 AM MDT TUE OCT 14 2014
THE NEXT MENTIONABLE WEATHER WILL BE WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH
DEVELOPS IN EASTERN COLORADO WITH A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT OF
ABOUT 6 MB ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA...WHICH WILL LEAD TO GUSTY
WINDS FOR MANY LOCATIONS. BECAUSE OF SURFACE GRADIENT SIGNATURE
AND SOME HINT FROM GUIDANCE THAT THERE WOULD BE SOME AVAILABILITY
OF WINDS ALOFT TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE...DECIDED TO UP WINDS A
BIT COMPARED TO AVAILABLE GUIDANCE. HIGHER GUSTS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THAN
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR DUE TO THE STRONGER WARM AIR
ADVECTION AT THE SURFACE...WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID 70S TO
AROUND 80.
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS SOMETIME DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY...BRINGING SOME GUSTY WINDS UP
TO 30 MPH ACROSS THE AREA. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE PLENTY OF DRY
AIR ALOFT...SO LOWERED THE DEW POINTS SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
POTENTIAL MIXING DOWN OF DRY AIR. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL NOT
QUITE MEET CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS...SO NOT EXPECTING
FIRE WEATHER PROBLEMS THURSDAY AT THIS TIME. COOLER AIR WILL FILL
IN BEHIND THE FRONT...HOWEVER HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL IN THE MID 70S FOR THURSDAY.
DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR FRIDAY ON INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT AS REGION REMAINS UNDER BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. GOING
INTO SUNDAY HOWEVER...MODELS(GFS/ECMWF) BRING WEAK SHORTWAVE ONSHORE
FROM THE PACIFIC TRAVELING EAST OVER THE ROCKIES...EXITING INTO THE
PLAINS REGION LATE SUNDAY RIGHT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO
MONDAY MORNING. TIMING OF THIS SHORTWAVE INTO THE PLAINS REGION JUST
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA PUTS BEST CHANCES FOR ANY -RW...OVER
SOUTHERN ZONES. DAYTIMES HEATING COMBINED WITH SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER
AREA WITH HIGHER DEWPTS(AFTERNOON HRS)...PUTS THE AFOREMENTIONED
AREA IN POSITION TO SEE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION. DRY WEATHER/SFC
RIDGE THEN RETURNS FOR REST OF NEXT MONDAY/TUESDAY. FOR DAYTIME
HIGHS/OVERNIGHT LOWS...OVERALL SUNNY/MSUNNY SKIES THRU FORECAST
PERIOD WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY A FEW
DEGREES. WILL GO WITH 60S FOR HIGHS AND LOW/MID 40S FOR LOWS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1110 AM MDT TUE OCT 14 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK WITH CLEAR
SKIES PREVAILING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER BOTH
TERMINALS TODAY WILL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS AROUND 5KT BECOMING
VARIABLE EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD AND CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.
SURFACE TROUGH BUILDING WEDNESDAY WILL RESULT IN WINDS SHIFTING TO
THE SOUTH AND INCREASING TO AROUND 12KT AT BOTH TERMINALS BY LATE
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...MK/JN
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
208 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 201 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014
SECOND LINE OF RAIN SHOWERS IS CURRENTLY SLOWLY TREKKING ACROSS THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WHILE
SOME OF THESE SHOWERS ARE SHOWING UP MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES ON
THE RADAR...THE RATES AND TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE STILL QUITE LOW
COMPARED TO WHAT WAS ORIGINALLY THOUGHT. LONDON ASOS JUST REPORTED
HALF AN INCH OF RAIN IN THE LAST HOUR...WHICH IS PRETTY GOOD...BUT NO
WHERE NEAR THE HIGHER AMOUNTS THAT WERE ORIGINALLY EXPECTED. AS
SUCH...THE THREAT OF THERE BEING ANY FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE CWA IS
ACTUALLY QUITE LOW. MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THE
AMOUNT OF RAIN THAT IS FALLING...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS WHICH WE MAY NEED TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR AS
WARRANTED. AFTER COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...DECIDED TO
GO AHEAD AND DROP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH ACROSS THE CWA FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1018 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014
UPDATED THE FORECAST...MAINLY THE POPS...TO MAKE SURE THAT ONGOING
TRENDS WERE BETTER REFLECTED. CURRENTLY...AN AREA OF WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS IS SLOWLY MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
CWA. THERE IS A BREAK IN THE ACTION ALONG THE WESTERN CWA
BORDER...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ACTUAL
FRONT CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL KY. THIS ONGOING SCENARIO IS ILL DEFINED
IN ANY OF THE SHORT TERM MODELS...EXCEPT MAYBE THE HRRR WHICH IS
STILL SEVERAL HOURS TOO SLOW. AS SUCH...WENT THROUGH THE POP GRIDS
AND MANUALLY TWEAKED THEM HOUR BY HOUR TO BETTER SHOW THE TRENDS OF
THE TWO LINES AND BREAK IN BETWEEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR IN CASE FURTHER UPDATES NEED TO BE MADE.
ALSO...GIVEN THE LACK OF THUNDER FOR THIS EVENT ACROSS THE
REGION...REDUCED THUNDER MENTION TO ONLY ISOLATED IN THE MOST
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS. EVEN THEN...DON/T KNOW IF WE WILL SEE MUCH
IN THE WAY OF THUNDER WITH THIS EVENT. ALSO LOADED IN THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONAL DATA FOR TEMPS...DEW POINTS...AND WINDS...TO MAKE SURE
THE NEAR TERM FORECAST WAS WELL ON TRACK WITH ONGOING CONDITIONS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 715 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014
FOR THE MOST PART...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. HOWEVER...HAVE FINE
TUNED THE POPS FOR THE LINE OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. A
SLIGHTLY QUICKER MOVEMENT OF THE LINE SEEMS TO BE THE CASE AND HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS FOR THIS. THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE IN WESTERN
KENTUCKY ALONG I-65 THIS HOUR AND LOOKS TO BE ARRIVING IN EASTERN
KENTUCKY BY 18Z. FOR NOW...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AND THE HIGHER WIND
GUSTS THREAT STILL LOOKS TO BE VALID. HAVE SENT OUT A NEW ZFP FOR THE
POPS BEING ADJUSTED AND INPUT THE LATEST OBS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE A LINE OF SHOWERS JUST
ENTERING THE I-75 CORRIDOR AS HEAVY SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE NORTH OUT OF TN INTO KY. THE GENERAL PROGRESSION
OF THE LINE IS EASTWARD...THOUGH VERY SLOWLY. SOUTHEAST WINDS
PERPENDICULAR ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS SEEMS TO BE CREATING A DOWN SLOPE
EFFECT ON THE INCOMING RAINFALL AS IT CREEPS EAST. THIS IS EXPECTED
TO BE OVERCOME HEADING INTO THE MORNING HOURS. EVEN SO ADJUSTED THE
POPS FOR A QUICKER EXIT TONIGHT AS THE DURATION APPEARS TO BE
SHORTER. OBSERVATIONS SO FAR HAVE SHOWN WIND GUSTS GETTING INTO THE
30 TO 40 RANGE IN SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN. BECAUSE
OF THIS...DECIDED TO CONTINUE WITH THE SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THE CONTINUED
WIND THREAT. WHILE A FEW MORE BROKEN LINES OF STRONGER SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THE MORNING HOURS...THE MAIN SEVERE
THREAT IS MARGINAL FOR NOW. THIS MAY CHANGE HEADING INTO THE DAY WITH
SOME HEATING AFTER DAYBREAK...PERHAPS ENOUGH FOR SOME INCREASED
INSTABILITY BUT THE MAIN LINE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY ALREADY BE OVER
MUCH OF EASTERN KENTUCKY BY THEN. THIS WILL NEED MONITORED HEADING
INTO THE HOURS AFTER DAYBREAK TODAY...ESPECIALLY WITH THE LOW LEVEL
JET OF 50 TO 60 KNOTS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ANY
INCREASE IN INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH FOR THE LINE TO REORGANIZE.
DESPITE THE LACK OF INSTABILITY...THE STRONG WIND THREAT WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF A PREFRONTAL
TROUGH AND THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT THIS EVENING. THE ACTUAL FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WILL PROVIDE A SECONDARY CONCERN FOR
WINDS BUT ALSO FOR MORE HEAVY RAINFALL. WITH THIS...WILL KEEP THE
MENTION OF STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS TODAY...HEAVY RAINFALL
WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING...AND THE STRONG
WIND THREAT.
THROUGH THIS EVENING THE NAM AND GFS ARE SUGGESTING AN EARLIER EXIT
WHICH MAY RESULT IN A NEED TO EXPIRE PRODUCTS A BIT EARLIER BUT
ASSESS THIS LATER IN THE DAY. THIS APPEARS TO BE THE FORECAST
CHALLENGE AS WHEN THIS FRONT EXITS. MODELS STILL AGREE WITH THE
SCENARIO OF THE LINGERING UPPER LOW AND WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER OVER
THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT AND ALSO FOR WEDNESDAY DUE TO THIS. TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL FEATURE A BREAK IN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AS THE DRY SLOT WILL BE OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY BEFORE A SECONDARY
TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AND
WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS. FOR NOW...SOME INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT
IN THE AFTERNOON BUT WITH 200 J/KG...EXPECTING SHOWERS TO BE THE
CASE.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014
THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM MEXICO
NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO UPPER MS VALLEY REGION AND A
CLOSED LOW OVER THE OH VALLEY REGION TO ITS EAST. THE AXIS OF THIS
CLOSED LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS EAST KY ON WED
NIGHT...WITH THE CLOSED LOW EXPECTED TO DEPART TO THE NORTHEAST
GRADUALLY ON THU. THE RIDGE INITIALLY IN PLACE OVER THE PLAINS SHOULD
WORK EAST AND WEAKEN/FLATTEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. THE
PATTERN SHOULD GRADUALLY EVOLVE TO PATTERN WITH GENERALLY A RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NORTH INTO THE ROCKIES
AND A TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA SOUTH INTO THE EASTERN CONUS FROM
THE WEEKEND THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. A FEW SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE
THROUGH THIS TROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK. THE
FIRST SHORTWAVE SHOULD WORK ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND TN VALLEY REGIONS
ON FRI NIGHT. THE 0Z ECMWF AND 0Z GFS THEN DIFFER WITH HEIGHTS OVER
THE GREAT LAKES WITH THE GFS MORE CLOSED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND
CONSOLIDATED...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE AND BRINGS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE INTO THE OH VALLEY FROM SAT INTO SAT EVENING. MODELS GENERALLY
HAVE HEIGHT RISES AND WEAK RIDGING FOR SUNDAY...WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
MOVING INTO THE OH VALLEY LATE IN THE PERIOD.
THE PERIOD SHOULD BEGIN RATHER UNSETTLED WITH SHOWERS ANTICIPATED AS
MODELS BRING RATHER DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION ON WED NIGHT INTO
EARLY ON THU. WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND THE COLD AIR ALOFT...BELOW
NORMAL HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FOR THU. SOME CLEARING SHOULD TAKE
PLACE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS FOR LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WITH
MODERATION IN THE AIRMASS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THIS COLD FRONT
WILL WORK ACROSS THE AREA FROM LATE FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. THIS FRONT WILL
PROBABLY BRING NOT MUCH MORE THAN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY
A SPRINKLE OR TWO. THE ECMWF IS COLDER WITH THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE
FRONT...ESPECIALLY BY THE TIME IT BRINGS MUCH LOWER HEIGHTS ACROSS
THE AREA ON SAT WITH THE STRONGER SHORTWAVE. THE MODEL BLEND OF TEMPS
AND POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT FROM LATE FRI INTO SAT NIGHT SEEMED TO BE
THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION AT THIS POINT. BY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT...WITH THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS BEST
AFTER THE END OF THE PERIOD. MODEL DO DIFFER WITH TEMPS AT THAT
POINT...THOUGH...WITH THE MODEL BLEND FAVORED WHICH WAS IN LINE WITH
RECENT ECMWF MOS TEMPS. THIS LEANED TEMPS MORE TOWARD THE TYPICALLY
MORE RELIABLE FOR THAT TIME RANGE ECMWF.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 205 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014
ANOTHER LINE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH EASTERN KY THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ALONG AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT. CEILINGS AND
VIS COULD BRIEFLY DROP AS THE LINE MOVES ACROSS THE TAF SITES...WITH
MVFR OR VERY BRIEF IFR EXPECTED. SO FAR...THERE HAS BEEN NO LIGHTNING
SHOWING UP ON THE RADAR...SO EXPECT TAF SITES TO REMAIN THUNDERSTORM
FREE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS WELL. THE OTHER CONCERN WILL
BE THE CONTINUED WIND GUSTS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. EXPECT
GUSTS OUT OF THE S AND SW BETWEEN 15 AND 30 KNOTS AT THE TAF SITES
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING UNTIL THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS CLEAR OF
THE TAF SITE. WINDS SHOULD MAKE THE SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO MORE WESTERLY
AFTER THE FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH A DISSIPATING
TREND AFTER 00Z. SHOWERS WILL REMAIN OVER A FEW AREAS TONIGHT BUT
SOME BRIEF CLEARING IS POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT. IF THIS DOES
OCCUR...SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP AT THE SITES ALONG WITH SOME LOWER
CEILINGS. THE ACTUAL LOW WILL BEGIN PASSING OVER THE REGION DURING
THE DAY TOMORROW...BRINGING THE RETURN OF RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ088-118.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JMW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
441 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 441 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A SHARP TROF CENTERED OVER
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH A CLOSED LOW OVER IL. JET STREAK ACROSS
NRN ONTARIO/QUEBEC THAT WAS ONE OF THE BIG DRIVERS FOR THE MDT TO
HVY PCPN ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES LAST NIGHT IS SHIFTING E.
HOWEVER...FCST AREA STILL REMAINS UNDER UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THE DEPARTING JET STREAK AND ALSO IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE LEFT EXIT OF ANOTHER JET STREAK WITH A VERY
SHARP ISOTACH GRADIENT ORIENTED FROM THE LWR OHIO VALLEY TO LAKE MI
AND WRN LWR MI. PCPN MORE STRONGLY TIED TO THE LEFT EXIT OF THE
LATTER JET STREAK HAS BEEN SURGING N UP LAKE MI TODAY AND IS NOW
SPREADING INTO THE ERN FCST AREA.
TONIGHT...COMBINATION OF RATHER STRONG DEEP LAYER FORCING PER
QVECTORS AND LEFT EXIT OF THE WRN GREAT LAKES UPPER JET WHICH IS
TRANSLATING SLIGHTLY EASTWARD WILL SUPPORT BEST CHC OF RAIN OVER THE
ERN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA. SHRA COVERAGE WILL PROBABLY DIMINISH
SOME EARLY THIS EVENING PER RADAR TRENDS...BUT EXPECT NEW
DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR QUICKLY DURING THE EVENING GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF
FORCING. GREATEST COVERAGE SHOULD BE OVERNIGHT WHEN ANOTHER PUSH OF
MOISTURE ADVECTION ALSO OCCURS IN THE 850-700MB LAYER. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SOME LOCALLY MDT TO HVY PCPN. TO THE W...LOW-MID LEVEL
DRYING OCCURRING THIS AFTN WILL HOLD TONIGHT...SO DRY WEATHER WILL
PREVAIL THERE. MORE CHALLENGING PART OF THE FCST IS ACROSS THE CNTRL
WHERE DELINEATION BTWN DRY AND RAIN WILL OCCUR...SO A FAIRLY TIGHT
POP GRADIENT WILL BE PAINTED ACROSS MAINLY DICKINSON AND MARQUETTE
COUNTIES. ON ANOTHER NOTE...THE STRONGEST WINDS ON LAKE SUPERIOR
HAVE OCCURRED CLOSER TO THE UPPER MICHIGAN SHORE TODAY...LIMITING
WAVE HEIGHTS OVER WHAT THEY COULD BE IF THE STRONGER WINDS COVERED
MORE OF THE OPEN WATER. EVEN SO...CONTINUED STEADY WINDS WITH SOME
EXPANSION OF HIGHER SPEEDS OVER THE OPEN WATERS MAY PUSH WAVES UP
SOME TONIGHT...LEADING TO MINOR BEACH EROSION ALONG THE SHORES OF
MARQUETTE AND ALGER COUNTIES INTO WED.
ON WED...QVECTOR DIVERGENCE AND UPPER JET GRADUALLY SHIFT E THOUGH
SOME WEAK FORCING DOES LINGER OVER THE E. WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS IN
THE MORNING OVER THE E WITH ONLY LOW CHC POPS LINGERING IN THE AFTN.
THE W WILL REMAIN DRY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014
THE FORECAST FOR LATE THIS WEEK REMAINS COMPLICATED AS THE UPPER LOW
PERSISTS OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THURSDAY...LEADING TO
THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA UNDER CONTINUED CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT...WHILE THE WESTERN AREA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK
RIDGING. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE EAST UNDER GENERALLY CLOUDY SKIES WED NIGHT INTO
THU...WHILE THE WEST MAY END UP WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.
HOWEVER...EVEN WITH THE EAST SEEING RAIN CHANCES...THIS AREA WILL BE
QUITE FAR REMOVED FROM THE UPPER LOW ITSELF AND ANY RAIN SHOWERS
WILL BE SCATTERED AT BEST...NOT ANYTHING LIKE AN ALL DAY RAIN LIKE
THE EAST HAS SEEN TODAY.
FINALLY...BY FRIDAY...AN UPPER DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER MS VLY AND MERGE WITH THE
GREAT LAKES UPPER LOW. THIS WILL ALLOW THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO
MOVE THROUGH AND ALSO ALLOW FOR MOISTURE TO WRAP AROUND THE MEAN
UPPER LOW AS IT MOVES TO HUDSON BAY. AS SUCH...ALONG AND BEHIND THE
SFC AND UPPER TOUGH THERE WILL BE BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN. IN
FACT...THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH SHOW UP TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH OF
RAIN FOR THE WEST FRI AFTN/EVENING. THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE
COLDER 850MB TEMPS DROPPING IN TO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT AS WELL
AS CYCLONIC UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE WESTERN UPPER PENINSULA. AS
SUCH...WILL RAISE POPS TO HIGH CHC OR LIKELY ACROSS THE WEST. WITH
THE CYCLONIC FLOW AND INDICATIONS FROM THE 12Z ECMWF THAT AN
ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT...WILL MAINTAIN
HIGHER POPS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR DUE TO LAKE ENHANCED PCPN. IN
FACT...IF THE COLDER ECMWF VERIFIES WITH 1000-850MB THICKNESS VALUES
BELOW 1300M...THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF MARQUETTE WILL LIKELY SEE
THEIR FIRST MEASURABLE SNOWFALL OF THE YEAR FRI NIGHT. AS
SUCH...WILL ALSO MENTION SNOW A LITTLE MORE ON FRI NIGHT IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF MARQUETTE.
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...EXPECT LAKE EFFECT PCPN TO GRADUALLY END
SATURDAY/SAT EVENING AS THE LOW MOVES OUT AND HIGH PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE BUILDS IN. WILL MAINTAIN HIGH POPS ACROSS THE
KEWEENAW AND THE EAST DUE TO THE NW PBL FLOW AND 850MB TEMPS -2C TO
-5C. RIDGING BUILDS IN BRIEFLY ON SUNDAY...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
QUIET AND WARMER DAY. HOWEVER...THE NWP START TO DISAGREE ON MON
REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE NEXT TOUGH DIVING DOWN INTO THE
TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE SUPPRESSED THAN
THE ECMWF...WITH THE GFS GENERALLY DRY FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE THE
ECWMF SHOWS AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE FOR RAIN WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM A
LITTLE FURTHER NORTH. FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FCST BUT IT
POSSIBLE THAT POPS WILL NEED TO BE INTRODUCED AT SOME POINT FOR MON.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 137 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014
DRIER AIR IS SLOWLY FILTERING INTO WRN UPPER MI...RESULTING IN CIGS
IMPROVING. KCMX HAS ALREADY IMPROVED TO VFR...AND CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR THRU THE END OF THE FCST PERIOD. AT KIWD...EXPECT
IFR/MVFR CIGS TO SCATTER OUT IN THE NEXT FEW HRS...LEAVING VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST PERIOD. HOWEVER...AT KCMX
AND KIWD...THERE IS A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR LIFR CIGS TO REAPPEAR LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY WED MORNING AS NOCTURNAL COOLING AND UPSLOPE FLOW MAY
CONSPIRE TO CAUSE STRATUS TO FORM. WITH VERY LOW CONFIDENCE...
CONDITIONS WERE KEPT VFR...BUT DID INCLUDE SCT 200FT CLOUDS AT KIWD
WHERE UPSLOPING IS MORE FAVORABLE. KSAW REMAINS IN THE MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THERE ARE SOME HINTS FROM GUIDANCE THAT LOW-LEVELS MAY DRY
OUT SOME LATER THIS AFTN...BUT GIVEN OBS/SATELLITE TRENDS...PLAN TO
KEEP FCST MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH LIFR IMPROVING TO LOW MVFR BY LATE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING. WILL THEN KEEP LOW MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FCST PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST AT KSAW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 20-30 KT TONIGHT ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REMAINS
STATIONARY. THE LOW STARTS TO WEAKEN ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO
WEAKEN DURING THE DAY AND REMAIN BELOW 20 KT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE ON FRIDAY AND THEN
MERGES WITH THE LOW OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WHILE STRENGTHENING.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR N-NW WINDS TO DEVELOP FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
WINDS COULD INCREASE TO NEAR GALE FORCE SAT BEFORE DIMINISHING
SUNDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...MRD
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...MRD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
427 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 428 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW DEEP UPR TROF OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS...WITH CLOSED LO MOVING SLOWLY ENEWD THRU SE IOWA.
WELL DEFINED AREA OF COLDER CLD TOPS IN THE COMMA HEAD OF THE CLOUD
LEAF ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS PRESENT OVER WI AND UPR MI.
COMBINATION OF DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC...VIGOROUS UPR DVGC IN RRQ OF
H3 JET STREAK IN NW ONTARIO AND IN EXIT REGION OF ANOTHER JET STREAK
MOVING N THRU THE MS RIVER VALLEY ARND THE CLOSED LO AND VERY MOIST
AIR WITH 00Z PWAT AS HI AS 1.30 INCH AT GRB /ABOUT 225 PCT OF
NORMAL/ IS RESULTING IN WDSPRD RA OVER THE CWA. THE RA IS HEAVIEST
OVER THE ERN CWA WHERE THE H85 ISOTHERMS ARE MOST CLOSELY PACKED IN
PRESENCE OF SHARP H85-7 FGEN AND SFC-H7 MSTR CNVGC IS MOST
PRONOUNCED NEAR THIS FRONTAL ZN. RADARS TO THE S INDICATE A HINT OF
A DRY SLOT IS MOVING N THRU ERN WI...WITH PCPN THERE TAKING ON A
MORE SHOWERY LOOK. MUCH DRIER MID LVL AIR SHOWN ON THE 00Z INL RAOB
IS KEEPING FAR WRN LK SUP DRY.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS THRU TNGT WL BE FOCUSED ON PCPN COVERAGE AND
AMOUNTS ASSOCIATED WITH CLOSED LO THAT IS FCST TO MOVE TO NEAR
CHICAGO BY 12Z WED.
TODAY...CLOSED LO IS FCST TO DRIFT ONLY SLOWLY TO THE E INTO
NCENTRAL IL BY 00Z WED...WITH DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC MAINTAINED OVER
ALL OF UPR MI EXCEPT FOR THE FAR W...WHERE MODELS INDICATE MORE
AGGRESSIVE LO-MID LVL DRYING WL RESULT IN LARGER SCALE QVECTOR DVGC
BY THE AFTN. AT THE SAME TIME...THE UPR JET STREAK OVER NW ONTARIO
IS FCST TO DRIFT TO THE NE AND OVER JAMES BAY TOWARD 00Z. WHILE THIS
SHIFT WL RESULT IN DIMINISHING UPR DVGC...MOVEMENT OF JET STREAK ON
THE ERN FLANK OF THE CLOSED LO INTO LOWER MI WL LIKELY MAINTAIN SOME
GREATER UPR DVGC OVER THE E HALF OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY LATER IN
THE DAY. AXIS OF SHARPEST H85-7 FGEN/SFC-7 MSTR CNVGC IS ALSO FCST
TO SHIFT TO THE NE THIS MRNG AND GIVE WAY TO SOME H85-7 DRYING. THE
RESULT OF THESE SHIFTS IN DYNAMIC SUPPORT...ALONG WITH SOME DRYING
MOVING IN FM THE S THIS MRNG AND FROM THE W THRU THE DAY SHOULD BE A
DIMINISHING TREND IN THE RA COVERAGE/AMOUNTS. BUT PERSISTENCE OF
DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC OVER ALL BUT THE FAR W AND COVERAGE OF PCPN
UNDER THE COMMA HEAD FEATURE WELL UPSTREAM THRU WI AND INTO SE MN
EARLY THIS MRNG SHOULD MAINTAIN AT LEAST SCT-NMRS SHOWERS OVER THE E
HALF. CONSIDERING THE WELL DEFINED COMMA CLD AND FCST LINGERING DEEP
LYR QVECTOR CNVGC AS WELL AS THE SLOWLY FCST VEERING H85 WINDS...
SUSPECT THE MODELS MAY BE A BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE ON THE MID LVL
DRYING...AT LEAST OVER THE CENTRAL AND E. SO TENDED TO SLOW THE
DRYING TREND A BIT FM THE W. BUT THERE STILL COULD BE SOME AFTN
SUNSHINE OVER THE W...WHICH WL BOOST TEMPS A FEW DEGREES. THERE IS
LIKELY TO BE A RESURGENCE IN THE POPS ESPECIALLY OVER THE SCENTRAL
AND E LATER IN THE DAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF MORE UPR DVGC IN THE LEFT
EXIT REGION IN THE UPR JET MOVING INTO LOWER MI AS WELL AS ANOTHER
AREA OF SHARPER H85-7 FGEN SHOWN BY SOME OF THE GUIDANCE.
TNGT...BULK OF THE MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE WDSPRD RA
MAY IMPACT THE CENTRAL AND ERN CWA INTO THE EARLY MRNG HRS UNDER
PERSISTENT DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC AND UNDER AREA OF UPR DVGC IN LEFT
EXIT OF JET STREAK SHIFTING SLOWLY TO THE E THRU LOWER MI TO THE NE
OF CLOSED LO FCST TO DRIFT SLOWLY ENE TOWARD SRN LK MI. THE PCPN
LOOKS TO BE A BIT HEAVIER IN THE EVNG OVER THE SCENTRAL CWA WHERE
AXIS OF SHARPER H85-7 FGEN IS FCST TO ACCOMPANY THIS HIER LVL
SUPPORT. OTRW...INCRSG NNE WINDS TDAY THRU TNGT WL CAUSE WAVE HGTS
TO BUILD SUFFICIENTLY TO PERHAPS CAUSE SOME MINOR BEACH EROSION
ALONG THE SHORES OF MQT AND ALGER COUNTIES.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014
THE FORECAST FOR LATE THIS WEEK REMAINS COMPLICATED AS THE UPPER LOW
PERSISTS OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THURSDAY...LEADING TO
THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA UNDER CONTINUED CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT...WHILE THE WESTERN AREA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK
RIDGING. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE EAST UNDER GENERALLY CLOUDY SKIES WED NIGHT INTO
THU...WHILE THE WEST MAY END UP WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.
HOWEVER...EVEN WITH THE EAST SEEING RAIN CHANCES...THIS AREA WILL BE
QUITE FAR REMOVED FROM THE UPPER LOW ITSELF AND ANY RAIN SHOWERS
WILL BE SCATTERED AT BEST...NOT ANYTHING LIKE AN ALL DAY RAIN LIKE
THE EAST HAS SEEN TODAY.
FINALLY...BY FRIDAY...AN UPPER DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER MS VLY AND MERGE WITH THE
GREAT LAKES UPPER LOW. THIS WILL ALLOW THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO
MOVE THROUGH AND ALSO ALLOW FOR MOISTURE TO WRAP AROUND THE MEAN
UPPER LOW AS IT MOVES TO HUDSON BAY. AS SUCH...ALONG AND BEHIND THE
SFC AND UPPER TOUGH THERE WILL BE BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN. IN
FACT...THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH SHOW UP TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH OF
RAIN FOR THE WEST FRI AFTN/EVENING. THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE
COLDER 850MB TEMPS DROPPING IN TO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT AS WELL
AS CYCLONIC UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE WESTERN UPPER PENINSULA. AS
SUCH...WILL RAISE POPS TO HIGH CHC OR LIKELY ACROSS THE WEST. WITH
THE CYCLONIC FLOW AND INDICATIONS FROM THE 12Z ECMWF THAT AN
ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT...WILL MAINTAIN
HIGHER POPS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR DUE TO LAKE ENHANCED PCPN. IN
FACT...IF THE COLDER ECMWF VERIFIES WITH 1000-850MB THICKNESS VALUES
BELOW 1300M...THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF MARQUETTE WILL LIKELY SEE
THEIR FIRST MEASURABLE SNOWFALL OF THE YEAR FRI NIGHT. AS
SUCH...WILL ALSO MENTION SNOW A LITTLE MORE ON FRI NIGHT IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF MARQUETTE.
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...EXPECT LAKE EFFECT PCPN TO GRADUALLY END
SATURDAY/SAT EVENING AS THE LOW MOVES OUT AND HIGH PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE BUILDS IN. WILL MAINTAIN HIGH POPS ACROSS THE
KEWEENAW AND THE EAST DUE TO THE NW PBL FLOW AND 850MB TEMPS -2C TO
-5C. RIDGING BUILDS IN BRIEFLY ON SUNDAY...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
QUIET AND WARMER DAY. HOWEVER...THE NWP START TO DISAGREE ON MON
REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE NEXT TOUGH DIVING DOWN INTO THE
TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE SUPPRESSED THAN
THE ECMWF...WITH THE GFS GENERALLY DRY FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE THE
ECWMF SHOWS AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE FOR RAIN WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM A
LITTLE FURTHER NORTH. FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FCST BUT IT
POSSIBLE THAT POPS WILL NEED TO BE INTRODUCED AT SOME POINT FOR MON.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 137 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014
DRIER AIR IS SLOWLY FILTERING INTO WRN UPPER MI...RESULTING IN CIGS
IMPROVING. KCMX HAS ALREADY IMPROVED TO VFR...AND CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR THRU THE END OF THE FCST PERIOD. AT KIWD...EXPECT
IFR/MVFR CIGS TO SCATTER OUT IN THE NEXT FEW HRS...LEAVING VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST PERIOD. HOWEVER...AT KCMX
AND KIWD...THERE IS A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR LIFR CIGS TO REAPPEAR LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY WED MORNING AS NOCTURNAL COOLING AND UPSLOPE FLOW MAY
CONSPIRE TO CAUSE STRATUS TO FORM. WITH VERY LOW CONFIDENCE...
CONDITIONS WERE KEPT VFR...BUT DID INCLUDE SCT 200FT CLOUDS AT KIWD
WHERE UPSLOPING IS MORE FAVORABLE. KSAW REMAINS IN THE MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THERE ARE SOME HINTS FROM GUIDANCE THAT LOW-LEVELS MAY DRY
OUT SOME LATER THIS AFTN...BUT GIVEN OBS/SATELLITE TRENDS...PLAN TO
KEEP FCST MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH LIFR IMPROVING TO LOW MVFR BY LATE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING. WILL THEN KEEP LOW MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FCST PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST AT KSAW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 20-30 KT TONIGHT ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REMAINS
STATIONARY. THE LOW STARTS TO WEAKEN ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO
WEAKEN DURING THE DAY AND REMAIN BELOW 20 KT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE ON FRIDAY AND THEN
MERGES WITH THE LOW OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WHILE STRENGTHENING.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR N-NW WINDS TO DEVELOP FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
WINDS COULD INCREASE TO NEAR GALE FORCE SAT BEFORE DIMINISHING
SUNDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...MRD
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...MRD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
326 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014
.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN ILLINOIS IS BEGINNING THE PROCESS
OF PROPAGATING BACK INTO THE COLD AIR AS OCCLUSION BEGINS TO TAKE
SHAPE IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE. AS THIS OCCURS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS, A SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS PROGGED TO TAKE SHAPE NEAR
THE TRIPLE POINT OVER WESTERN LOWER MI WHICH SHOULD HELP USHER THE
DEEPER MOISTURE EAST OF THE AREA BY 06Z. IN THE MEANTIME, WEAKLY
FORCED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM CONVEYOR AND ENHANCED BY
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LEAD EDGE OF THE GRADUALLY DESCENDING DRY SLOT
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE NIGHT. THE 16Z HRRR SUGGESTS THIS COULD TAKE UNTIL AS LATE AS
07-08Z FOR EASTERN AREAS, CONSIDERABLY SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED. THIS CERTAINLY SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS WHICH SHOW VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORWARD MOTION FOR THE
UPSTREAM CYCLONE. THE RAINFALL FORECAST WILL BE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY
TO ALLOW FOR A SLOWER EXIT OF SHOWERS AND LINGERING DRIZZLE. LIGHT
COLD ADVECTION WILL GET UNDERWAY ONCE THE DEEPER MOISTURE EXITS EAST
AND THE COOL AIRMASS OVER SOUTHERN MO/IL/IN ADVECTS INTO THE AREA
WITHIN DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW. LOWS IN THE MID 50S ARE
REASONABLE.
&&
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY
UPPER CUTOFF LOW MEANDERING ACROSS THE REGION WILL IMPACT OUR
WEATHER LOCALLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MAIN MOISTURE PLUME WILL BE
SHUNTED OFF TO THE EAST...BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER IN LOWER
LEVELS TO SUPPORT BOUTS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR
WEDNESDAY SHOW STEEP LAPSE RATES DEVELOPING BELOW 10KFT SO SHOWER
PRODUCTION WILL LIKELY GET A BOOST FROM DIURNAL PROCESSES DURING THE
AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY...A BIT OF ENHANCED THETA-E AT LOWER TO MID
LEVELS WILL BE DRIVEN WESTWARD FROM THE MAIN MOISTURE PLUME OVER THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS IS DUE TO EASTERLY TRAJECTORIES DEVELOPING AS
THE LOW/MID LEVEL CIRCULATION REORIENTS ITSELF TO OUR SOUTH WHILE
DRIFTING EASTWARD. WITH THE DISORGANIZED NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM
HOWEVER...POPS WILL BE KEPT AT LOW/MID LEVEL CHANCE RANGE.
ADDITIONAL BOUTS OF SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY AS
HIGHER THETA-E CONTINUES TO WRAP INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST. WEAK
SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING AN
END TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES. TEMPERATURES BOTH WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE AS THERE IS NOT MUCH COLD AIR
BENEATH THE UPPER LOW. CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS ELEVATED.
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SWING THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
REGION ON FRIDAY BRINGING YET AGAIN ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS
TO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. WHILE RAIN SHOWERS COULD BE POSSIBLE
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE AREA...THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS LOOKS
TO BE IN THE NORTHERN CWA. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING SOME MUCH NEEDED DRY
WEATHER TO THE AREA. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL BRING A
RETURN OF RAIN ON MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY MILD ON
FRIDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S BEFORE DROPPING DOWN INTO THE MID 50S
FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR TREND STARING OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S ON
FRIDAY NIGHT AND DROPPING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S FOR THE REST OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
MODERATELY STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS. THIS HAS
BROUGHT IN A MILD AIRMASS AND AREAS OF RAIN WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING SOUTH TO NORTH. THE
SURFACE LOW WILL BROADEN AND WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD...CAUSING THE WINDS TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR THE FAR NORTHERN ZONE OF LAKE HURON NEAR THE
STRAITS WHERE STRONGER NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL ON THE
NORTHERN FLANK OF THE LOW. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW
GALE CRITERIA. BOUTS OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...BUT WITH LIGHTER WINDS THAN TODAY. STRONGER
SOUTHWESTERLY/WESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS
A COLDER AIRMASS SPILLS INTO THE REGION...WHEN ADDITIONAL MARINE
HEADLINES WILL BE POSSIBLE.
&&
.AVIATION...ISSUED 1220 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014
//DISCUSSION...
LIGHT RAIN IS ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS HAS PREVENTED DETERIORATION OF CEILINGS
THUS FAR, BUT UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT THIS WILL CHANGE AS
DEEPER MOISTURE OVER EASTERN INDIANA AND WESTERN OHIO LIFT THROUGH
THE AREA ROUGHLY 18Z-03Z. DURING THIS TIME, MVFR CEILINGS WILL TAKE
HOLD WITH VSBY RANGING FROM VFR TO IFR DEPENDING ON VARIABLE SHOWER
INTENSITY. OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNTOS REMAIN POSSIBLE
DURING LULLS IN SHOWER ACTIVITY. PRECIP WILL END AS DRY SLOT WRAPS
IN FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE EVENING, BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN LOCKED IN PLACE ENSURING LOW MVFR CIGS THROUGH TONIGHT AND
PERHAPS A PERIOD OF DRIZZLE EARLY.
//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FEET AFTER 19Z.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR
BEACH...UNTIL MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT
HURON...UNTIL 8 PM TUESDAY.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...UNTIL 8 PM TUESDAY.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JVC
LONG TERM....DT/RK
MARINE.......DT
AVIATION.....JVC
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
137 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 428 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW DEEP UPR TROF OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS...WITH CLOSED LO MOVING SLOWLY ENEWD THRU SE IOWA.
WELL DEFINED AREA OF COLDER CLD TOPS IN THE COMMA HEAD OF THE CLOUD
LEAF ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS PRESENT OVER WI AND UPR MI.
COMBINATION OF DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC...VIGOROUS UPR DVGC IN RRQ OF
H3 JET STREAK IN NW ONTARIO AND IN EXIT REGION OF ANOTHER JET STREAK
MOVING N THRU THE MS RIVER VALLEY ARND THE CLOSED LO AND VERY MOIST
AIR WITH 00Z PWAT AS HI AS 1.30 INCH AT GRB /ABOUT 225 PCT OF
NORMAL/ IS RESULTING IN WDSPRD RA OVER THE CWA. THE RA IS HEAVIEST
OVER THE ERN CWA WHERE THE H85 ISOTHERMS ARE MOST CLOSELY PACKED IN
PRESENCE OF SHARP H85-7 FGEN AND SFC-H7 MSTR CNVGC IS MOST
PRONOUNCED NEAR THIS FRONTAL ZN. RADARS TO THE S INDICATE A HINT OF
A DRY SLOT IS MOVING N THRU ERN WI...WITH PCPN THERE TAKING ON A
MORE SHOWERY LOOK. MUCH DRIER MID LVL AIR SHOWN ON THE 00Z INL RAOB
IS KEEPING FAR WRN LK SUP DRY.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS THRU TNGT WL BE FOCUSED ON PCPN COVERAGE AND
AMOUNTS ASSOCIATED WITH CLOSED LO THAT IS FCST TO MOVE TO NEAR
CHICAGO BY 12Z WED.
TODAY...CLOSED LO IS FCST TO DRIFT ONLY SLOWLY TO THE E INTO
NCENTRAL IL BY 00Z WED...WITH DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC MAINTAINED OVER
ALL OF UPR MI EXCEPT FOR THE FAR W...WHERE MODELS INDICATE MORE
AGGRESSIVE LO-MID LVL DRYING WL RESULT IN LARGER SCALE QVECTOR DVGC
BY THE AFTN. AT THE SAME TIME...THE UPR JET STREAK OVER NW ONTARIO
IS FCST TO DRIFT TO THE NE AND OVER JAMES BAY TOWARD 00Z. WHILE THIS
SHIFT WL RESULT IN DIMINISHING UPR DVGC...MOVEMENT OF JET STREAK ON
THE ERN FLANK OF THE CLOSED LO INTO LOWER MI WL LIKELY MAINTAIN SOME
GREATER UPR DVGC OVER THE E HALF OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY LATER IN
THE DAY. AXIS OF SHARPEST H85-7 FGEN/SFC-7 MSTR CNVGC IS ALSO FCST
TO SHIFT TO THE NE THIS MRNG AND GIVE WAY TO SOME H85-7 DRYING. THE
RESULT OF THESE SHIFTS IN DYNAMIC SUPPORT...ALONG WITH SOME DRYING
MOVING IN FM THE S THIS MRNG AND FROM THE W THRU THE DAY SHOULD BE A
DIMINISHING TREND IN THE RA COVERAGE/AMOUNTS. BUT PERSISTENCE OF
DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC OVER ALL BUT THE FAR W AND COVERAGE OF PCPN
UNDER THE COMMA HEAD FEATURE WELL UPSTREAM THRU WI AND INTO SE MN
EARLY THIS MRNG SHOULD MAINTAIN AT LEAST SCT-NMRS SHOWERS OVER THE E
HALF. CONSIDERING THE WELL DEFINED COMMA CLD AND FCST LINGERING DEEP
LYR QVECTOR CNVGC AS WELL AS THE SLOWLY FCST VEERING H85 WINDS...
SUSPECT THE MODELS MAY BE A BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE ON THE MID LVL
DRYING...AT LEAST OVER THE CENTRAL AND E. SO TENDED TO SLOW THE
DRYING TREND A BIT FM THE W. BUT THERE STILL COULD BE SOME AFTN
SUNSHINE OVER THE W...WHICH WL BOOST TEMPS A FEW DEGREES. THERE IS
LIKELY TO BE A RESURGENCE IN THE POPS ESPECIALLY OVER THE SCENTRAL
AND E LATER IN THE DAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF MORE UPR DVGC IN THE LEFT
EXIT REGION IN THE UPR JET MOVING INTO LOWER MI AS WELL AS ANOTHER
AREA OF SHARPER H85-7 FGEN SHOWN BY SOME OF THE GUIDANCE.
TNGT...BULK OF THE MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE WDSPRD RA
MAY IMPACT THE CENTRAL AND ERN CWA INTO THE EARLY MRNG HRS UNDER
PERSISTENT DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC AND UNDER AREA OF UPR DVGC IN LEFT
EXIT OF JET STREAK SHIFTING SLOWLY TO THE E THRU LOWER MI TO THE NE
OF CLOSED LO FCST TO DRIFT SLOWLY ENE TOWARD SRN LK MI. THE PCPN
LOOKS TO BE A BIT HEAVIER IN THE EVNG OVER THE SCENTRAL CWA WHERE
AXIS OF SHARPER H85-7 FGEN IS FCST TO ACCOMPANY THIS HIER LVL
SUPPORT. OTRW...INCRSG NNE WINDS TDAY THRU TNGT WL CAUSE WAVE HGTS
TO BUILD SUFFICIENTLY TO PERHAPS CAUSE SOME MINOR BEACH EROSION
ALONG THE SHORES OF MQT AND ALGER COUNTIES.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014
THE FORECAST FOR WED-WED NIGHT IS COMPLICATED BY SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER IL/IN.
ADDITIONALLY...DETERMINING WHERE AND HOW MUCH PRECIP IS COMPLICATED
BY A SHARP MOISTURE CUTOFF TO VERY DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A RIDGE
AXIS JUST NW OF THE CWA. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP FAR NWRN UPPER MI DRY
AS MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS TO BE THE CASE...BUT HAVE MINIMAL
CONFIDENCE IN EXACT PRECIP AMOUNTS AND LOCATIONS OF GREATEST PRECIP.
LACK OF CONFIDENCE CONTINUES THU AND THU NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW
MERGES WITH A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SRN CANADA. MODELS SHOW A CLOSED
LOW DEVELOPING OVER OR NEAR THE CWA FRI AS A RESULT OF THE MERGER.
UNCERTAINTY COMES FROM MODEL TO MODEL DISAGREEMENT AND RUN TO RUN
DISCONTINUITY ON WHERE THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY TRACKS BEFORE/DURING
THE MERGER. THE 12Z/13 ECMWF BRINGS THE REMNANTS OF THE LOW
CURRENTLY OVER IL ACROSS THE CWA...WHILE THE 00Z/14 GFS MOVES THE
REMNANTS WELL E AND THEN N OF THE CWA. THUS...THE ECMWF HAS LIGHT
RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA ON THU AND THU NIGHT...WHILE THE GFS HAS
ALMOST THE ENTIRE CWA DRY. THE GFS ALSO HAS BACKING FROM THE 00Z/14
NAM AND 12Z/13 GLOBAL GEM. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD CHANCES OF PRECIP
OVER THE ERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA AND SLIGHT CHANCES ELSEWHERE.
GIVEN CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE BEING MUCH DRIER THAN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...DECIDED TO CUT POPS BACK SOME ON THU.
IT DOES LOOK LIKE A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THU NIGHT OR EARLY
FRI...WITH A REINFORCING COLD FRONT LATE FRI OR FRI NIGHT. AT THIS
POINT...CONFIDENCE ACTUALLY INCREASES AS WNW-NW LOW LEVEL FLOW AND
GREATER LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW
WILL LEAD TO LAKE EFFECT PRECIP FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT.
FOR SUN AND MON...MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH WILL MOVE
FAR ENOUGH E TO LIMIT PRECIP CHANCES. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL WITH CONTINUED N-NW FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 137 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014
DRIER AIR IS SLOWLY FILTERING INTO WRN UPPER MI...RESULTING IN CIGS
IMPROVING. KCMX HAS ALREADY IMPROVED TO VFR...AND CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR THRU THE END OF THE FCST PERIOD. AT KIWD...EXPECT
IFR/MVFR CIGS TO SCATTER OUT IN THE NEXT FEW HRS...LEAVING VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST PERIOD. HOWEVER...AT KCMX
AND KIWD...THERE IS A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR LIFR CIGS TO REAPPEAR LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY WED MORNING AS NOCTURNAL COOLING AND UPSLOPE FLOW MAY
CONSPIRE TO CAUSE STRATUS TO FORM. WITH VERY LOW CONFIDENCE...
CONDITIONS WERE KEPT VFR...BUT DID INCLUDE SCT 200FT CLOUDS AT KIWD
WHERE UPSLOPING IS MORE FAVORABLE. KSAW REMAINS IN THE MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THERE ARE SOME HINTS FROM GUIDANCE THAT LOW-LEVELS MAY DRY
OUT SOME LATER THIS AFTN...BUT GIVEN OBS/SATELLITE TRENDS...PLAN TO
KEEP FCST MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH LIFR IMPROVING TO LOW MVFR BY LATE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING. WILL THEN KEEP LOW MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FCST PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST AT KSAW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 428 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014
EXPECT INCREASING NNE WINDS UP TO 30 KTS OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAKE
INTO TONIGHT UNDER TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT TO THE N OF DEEP LO PRES
MOVING TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THERE
COULD BE SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS...ESPECIALLY AT THE HIER PLATFORMS.
AS THE LO TO THE S SLOWLY WEAKENS LATER TONIGHT/WED AND A HI PRES
RIDGE DRIFTS OVER THE UPPER LAKES LATER ON WED...EXPECT WINDS TO
STEADILY DIMINISH UNDER 15 KTS ON WED NIGHT. RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS
WILL THEN PERSIST INTO FRI BEFORE A LO PRES IF FORECAST TO DEVELOP
AND DEEPEN NEAR JAMES BAY. A SHARPENING PRES GRADIENT AROUND THIS
FEATURE WILL BRING INCREASING NW WINDS...WHICH COULD REACH GALE
FORCE ON SAT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
647 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEK. A PRECEDING PLUME OF DEEP
GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL BRING A SOAKING RAIN TO
ALL OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
COOLER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
EXAMINATION OF SATL-DERIVED PWAT LOOP AND LATEST RAP OUTPUT SHOWS
A PLUME OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE THE CENTRAL PA THIS
EVENING...PRODUCING A BIT OF LGT RAIN/DRIZZLE WHERE FLOW ASCENDS
THE CENTRAL MTNS. HAVE ADJUSTED EVENING POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
AND REMOVE MENTION OF PRECIP ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY.
MAIN FOCUS REMAINS WITH UPPER LOW AND ASSOC LL JET OVR THE OHIO
VALLEY WITH IT/S PLUME OF GULF OF MEX MOISTURE. LATEST MDL DATA
CONTINUES TO INDICATE RAIN ASSOC WITH ANOMALOUS LL JET/PWATS WILL
OVERSPREAD THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU AND CENTRAL MTNS LATE TONIGHT.
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND LOCAL UPSLOPE INTO THE LAURELS AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL MAKE FOR INCREASING POPS OVR THE W COUNTIES
AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH NR 100 POPS BY DAWN...AS THE RIBBON OF HIGHLY
ABOVE NORMAL PW REACHES THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU. SOUTHERLY WIND
GUSTS COULD EXCEED 30 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT OVR THE HIGH TERRAIN OF
WESTERN PA.
GIVEN CURRENT DWPTS AND CONTINUED MOISTURE ADVECTION
OVERNIGHT...DON/T SEE ANY AREAS DROPPING BLW 60F TONIGHT...AND
THE SUSQ VALLEY IS LIKELY TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE M/U60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
IMPRESSIVE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING THE PASSAGE OF THE
SLOW EASTWARD MOVING FRONTAL ZONE...COMPLICATED BY A SFC WAVE
LIFTING NORTHWARD ALONG IT...WILL BE THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FOCUS
ON WEDNESDAY. DESPITE WEAKENING BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS...THE SYSTEM
WILL PACK A PUNCH THROUGHOUT CENTRAL PA...AND WILL PRODUCE
MARGINAL CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS AND A 3 TO 6 HOUR PERIOD OF
CONVECTIVE RAINFALL IN MOST AREAS. AS ALWAYS...WITH SUCH STRONG
SPEED SHEAR...LOW LCLS AND THE PRESENCE OF WEAK TO MODERATE CAPE
ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW
STRONGER BOWING OR ROTATING CELLS ALONG THE LARGER CONVECTIVE
LINE. WE REMAIN IN SEE TEXT AREA FROM SPC WED AFTN.
THE MAIN THREAT WEDNESDAY WILL BE SOAKING RAINFALL ALONG THE SLOW
MOVING BOUNDARY. LATEST MDL BLENDED QPF RANGES FROM CLOSE TO AN
INCH ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY...TO ARND 2 INCHES OVR THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS. HOWEVER...CONVECTION WILL LIKELY LEAD TO LOCALIZED
HIGHER AMTS. 12Z CONVECTION ALLOWING MDL RUNS SHOW THE POTENTIAL
OF LOCAL 3"+ AMOUNTS...WHICH COME IN ON THE LOWER END OF 3-HR AND
6-HR FFG GUIDANCE. IN GENERAL...EXPECT A BENEFICIAL RAINFALL
RATHER THAN A FLOOD THREAT GIVEN OUR RECENT DRY SPELL. HEAVIEST
RAINFALL OVER EASTERN AREAS MAY NOT BE DONE BY LATE
AFTERNOON...BUT DRIER AIR WILL SWEEP INTO WESTERN AREAS BY MID
AFTERNOON WITH A FAIRLY SHARP CUTOFF EXPECTED TO THE HIGHER
INTENSITY RAINFALL. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BUFFET
THE RIDGE TOPS...AND LOCATIONS NORTH OF RIDGE GAPS. MAX TEMPS WILL
LKLY RANGE FROM THE LOW 60S OVR THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU TO THE
L/M70S ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BROAD AND DEEP/CLOSED H5 CYCLONE CENTERED INVOF THE OH/IN/KY
BORDER AT 16/0000Z WILL PIVOT SLOWLY ENEWD INTO W-CNTRL PA BY
17/0000Z. BY THIS TIME A KICKER SYSTEM CROSSING THE NRN PLAINS AND
UPPER MIDWEST WILL FORCE THE AMPLIFIED EASTERN U.S. SYSTEM INTO A
PROCESS OF OPENING/WEAKENING INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND BY EARLY FRIDAY.
THIS PROCESS APPEARS TO BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE NRN KICKER SYSTEM
ENERGY IS ABSORBED AND FEEDS INTO THE ERN CONUS MEAN TROUGH. WHAT
ULTIMATELY HAPPENS WITH THIS ENERGY REMAINS UNDECIDED FROM A MODEL
PERSPECTIVE AS THE SUBTLE SHORTWAVE DIFFS WILL LKLY IMPACT THE
SHARPNESS OF THE TROUGH ALONG WITH THE PROGRESSION OF EMBEDDED SFC
FRONTS. TAKEN AS A WHOLE...THE INCORPORATION OF THE UPSTREAM
ENERGY SHOULD ALLOW THE TROUGH TO RELOAD OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AND NORTHEAST STATES INTO THE WEEKEND. ENSEMBLE
MEANS AND TELECONNECTIONS FAVOR PERSISTENT ERN CONUS TROUGHING
INTO NEXT WEEK.
HVY RAIN THREAT SHOULD SHIFT EWD OUT OF THE CWA WED NGT ALONG WITH
THE STG SLY LLJ AND AXIS OF ANOMALOUS MSTR/PWS. HOWEVER EXPECT
WEATHER CONDITIONS TO REMAIN UNSETTLED AND `SHOWERY` ON THURS AS
THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH LIFTS NEWD ACROSS THE AREA. BROAD CYCLONIC
FLOW WILL KEEP THE CHC OF SHOWERS IN THE FCST ALONG THE ALLEGHENY
FRONT/NW PLATEAU HOWEVER PCPN LOOKS TO BE VERY LGT/SPOTTY OVER
THESE AREAS FRI. FRONTAL PASSAGE EMBEDDED WITHIN BROAD CYC FLOW
ALOFT SHOULD OCCUR AROUND SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A CHUNK OF SUB-
ZERO AIR AT 850MB SAT NGT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THIS MAY SUPPORT SOME
SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE FAVORED HIGH ELEVATIONS/UPSLOPE AREAS ALONG
THE WRN RIDGES AND DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE. HP SHOULD PROVIDE MAINLY
DRY WEATHER SUN INTO MON.
ONE OR MORE REINFORCING SFC FRONTAL PASSAGES ALONG WITH MEAN
TROUGHING SHOULD SUPPORT SEASONABLY COOL...NEAR-TO-BELOW AVG
TEMPERATURES DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
WED NGT LOW TEMPS WHICH WILL STILL BE RELATIVELY MILD BY MID OCT
STANDARDS.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON WITH PERSISTENT LLVL
SOUTHEAST FLOW AND INCREASINGLY MOIST DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT.
AIR FIELDS SHOULD SEE 15G30KT RANGES FOR MUCH OF THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT WITH LOCALLY STRONGER GUSTS DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS...WEST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MVFR TO IFR REDUCTIONS RETURN BY MID EVE AS LOW CLOUDS AGAIN
OVERSPREAD THE REGION. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BREEZY AT THE SURFACE
AS 850MB FLOW APPROACHES 50KTS...CONTINUING THIS PROLONGED PERIOD
OF LLWS.
THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH A STRONG FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION LATE TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED EVE. STRONG FLOW WILL KEEP
WINDS GUSTY AND LLWS ONGOING. WIDESPREAD REDUCTIONS WILL ALSO
PERSIST WITH OTHER IMPACTS BEING AN APPROX 12HR PERIOD OF RAIN AND
POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS /IN THE WEST DURING THE DAY WED AND IN THE
EAST WED AFT AND EVE/.
OUTLOOK...
WED...COLD FRONT. WIDESPREAD REDUCTIONS. PERIODS OF RAIN AND
SCATTERED TSTMS. LLWS. BREEZY.
THU...SCT SHOWERS WITH RESTRICTIONS LIKELY. IMPROVING LATE.
LIGHTER WINDS.
FRI...MAINLY VFR.
SAT-SUN...MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT MVFR CIGS AND CHC SHRA/SHSN
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...DEVOIR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
455 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND
THEN OFFSHORE BY TOMORROW NIGHT. AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES
BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DRIER
WEATHER WILL RETURN AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
420 PM UPDATE...DESPITE THE VERY ACTIVE FCST IT APPEARS TO BE ON
TRACK WRT THE NEWEST GUIDANCE...WARRANTING ONLY RATHER MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS FOR SKY/POP TO BETTER LINE UP WITH REALITY. BAND OF
CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT IS NOW JUST ENTERING THE CWFA DOES NOT
APPEAR TO POSE ANY IMMEDIATE THREAT OF SVR WX...BUT EMBEDDED HEAVY
RAIN IS BEING CLOSELY MONITORED. IT STILL APPEARS THE SVR THREAT
WITH THIS LINE WILL TREND UPWARD TONIGHT AS THE RR QUAD OF UPPER JET
COMES OVERHEAD. LATEST COUPLE RUNS OF THE HRRR SUGGEST THE LINE WILL
BECOME SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED UNTIL IT ENTERS THE I-77 CORRIDOR A
LITTLE BEFORE MIDNIGHT...WHEN IT DEVELOPS A SHORT QLCS.
AS OF 250 PM EDT TUESDAY...RATHER POTENT UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT THE NEAR TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. LATEST DAY ONE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FROM SPC CONSUMES THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WITHIN THE SLIGHT RISK REGION...WITH AN
ADDITIONAL 5 PERCENT AREA FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES. THIS COINCIDES
WITH VERY IMPRESSIVE SHEAR PROFILES ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING
LONGWAVE TROF...UPPER JET...AND BACKED FLOW AT THE SURFACE. MOST
RECENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES INCREASING INSTABILITY AMONGST
CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH ALMOST THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
REACHING INTO THE 500-1000J/KG RANGE. CONVECTIVE ALLOWING GUIDANCE
SOURCES CONTINUE TO INDICATE STRENGTHENING OF A SECONDARY LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH ARE NOW PUSHING THROUGH
NORTH/CENTRAL GA. IMPROVED UPPER SUPPORT BACKED BY AN APPROACHING
SHORT WAVE IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED UPPER JET MAX WILL PROVIDE AMPLE
DIVERGENCE/LIFT IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS TO AID THE ABOVE MENTIONED
CONVECTION THIS EVENING...AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT DESPITE HEATING
LOSS. LONG RIGHT TURNING HODOGRAPHS IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT ARE INDICATIVE OF IMPRESSIVE SHEAR THROUGH THE PROFILE.
BACKED FLOW AT THE SURFACE COULD SUPPORT TORNADOGENESIS WITHIN THE
STRONGEST UPDRAFTS THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. THUS THE PRIMARY SEVERE
WEATHER CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE ISOLATED AND SHORT LIVED TORNADOES
ALONG WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
IN ADDITION...CONTINUED HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH THE DAY TODAY WILL
PROVIDE SUPPORTIVE ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS FOR POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING
WITHIN AND ADJACENT TO ANY OF THE STRONGER CELLS THROUGH THE FIRST
12 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THUS THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT. WIND ADVISORY ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN WILL LIKELY
BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES
BEHIND THE FROPA OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AFTER DAYBREAK
AS THE FRONT SLIDES INTO CENTRAL NC AND THE MIDLANDS OF SC.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RATHER STATIONARY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FEATURED IN THE FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT 200 PM EDT TUESDAY...A DEEP CLOSED UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO BE
CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WED EVENING. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO
MOVE NE AND WEAKEN THROUGH FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR ZONAL FLOW TO DEVELOP
OVER THE CAROLINAS AND NE GA BY LATE WEEK.
AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES NE WED NIGHT THE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD
WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA. THE ASSOCIATED DPVA WILL CONTINUE TO
TRIGGER SOME SCT SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN NC. THE SHOWERS WILL
BE MOST NUMEROPUS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WHERE NW FLOW WILL
ENHANCE LIFT. A FEW NW FLOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO THU MORNING OVER
THE NC MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NW WITH CLEARING COMMENCING DURING THU. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
CONTROL THE WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURE WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL ON THURSDAY...WARMING TO NEAR
CLIMO ON FRIDAY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD NEAR NORMAL BY
CLOUD COVER WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN WILL FALL BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS DEVELOPING.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT 215 PM EDT TUESDAY...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
OVER THE EASTERN U.S. EARLY IN THE WEEKEND AND THEN TRANSITION
EASTWARD ALLOWING FOR ZONAL FLOW TO DEVELOP BY LATE SUNDAY. ANOTHER
UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT
WEEK AND MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TUESDAY.
AT THE SURFACE A DRY COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CP HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SE OVER THE AREA SAT INTO
SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL EAST TO THE COAST ON MONDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. THE MONDAY NIGHT FRONT
MAY TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR
CLIMO.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHRA/TSRA MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
TONIGHT LEADING TO VISB/CIG RESTRICTIONS. SEVERE TSRA POTENTIAL WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WITH ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE EXPECTED TO
SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT...BUT EVENTUALLY A COLD FROPA
WILL CUT OFF THE TS RISK. INITIALLY...CLUSTERS OF WARM SECTOR
SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST PROMPTING INITIAL TEMPO FOR
TSRA THRU 00Z WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS LIKELY. EXPECTING A BRIEF
LULL IN THE ACTIVITY BEFORE A SECOND LINE ASSOCIATED WITH ABOVE
MENTIONED UPPER IMPULSE MOVES INTO THE REGION EARLY MORNING. THE
FRONT ITSELF WILL CLEAR THE REGION BY MID/LATE MORNING ALLOWING
CIG/VISB RESTRICITONS TO IMPROVE FOR THE LATER QUARTER OF THE TAF
CYCLE. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES.
ELSEWHERE...AS WITH KCLT ABOVE EXPECTING A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR/IFR
RESTRICTIONS TO HIGHLIGHT THE TAF CYCLE AT ALL SITES AS MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED. CURRENT SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE UPSTATE AND WESTERN NC WILL SLIDE EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON WITH THE TAFS HIGHLIGHTING SUCH VIA TEMPOS WITH SLIGHT
TIMING ADJUSTMENTS BASED UPON SITE LOCATION. A SECONDARY LINE OF
CONVECTION IS PROGGED TO SLIDE INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST BY LATE
AFTERNOON...BEFORE PUSHING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. EXPECTING FURTHER CIG/VISB RESTRICTIONS WITH HEAVY
RAIN AND POSSIBLE SEVERE +TSRA WITH THIS SECOND LINE THUS PREVAILED
SUCH AT EACH LOCATION. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH LOW STRATUS ERODING BY EARLY MORNING ACROSS THE WEST...MID/LATE
MORNING FURTHER EAST. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY AS STRONG
LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH WINDS SUBSIDING
BEHIND THE FRONT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCES RELAX.
OUTLOOK...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
EARLY WED. GRADUAL DRYING WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
MID TO LATE WEEK.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
21-03Z 03-09Z 09-15Z 15-21Z
KCLT HIGH 85% MED 79% HIGH 81% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 90% MED 73% HIGH 94% HIGH 100%
KAVL MED 70% MED 79% HIGH 90% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 81% MED 76% HIGH 85% HIGH 97%
KGMU HIGH 91% MED 69% HIGH 95% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 85% HIGH 88% HIGH 91% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR GAZ010-017.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NCZ033-048>053-058-
059-062>065-501>506.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NCZ033-048>053-
058-059-062>065-501-503-505.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR SCZ001-002.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JAT
NEAR TERM...CDG/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...LG
AVIATION...CDG/WIMBERLEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
117 PM CDT TUE OCT 14 2014
.UPDATE... /ISSUED 1103 AM CDT TUE OCT 14 2014/
CURRENTLY SKIES ARE CLOUDY AND TEMPS ARE IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE REGION. SOME
SHOWERS ARE PRESENT IN THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS DOWN A BIT IN SOME AREAS AND POPS
UP ACCORDING TO RECENT TRENDS AND THE LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE.
UPDATED GRIDS AND ZONES ARE AVAILABLE.
ZDM
&&
.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 AM CDT TUE OCT 14 2014/
IR SATELLITE SHOWING MERIDIONAL FLOW ACROSS THE COUNTRY WITH A
RIDGE DOMINATING THE WESTERN HALF AND A SECOND ALONG THE EAST
COAST. SANDWICHED BETWEEN WAS THE CURRENT STORM/UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTERED IN NORTHEAST MISSOURI...WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE HANGING
BACK ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND AS FAR SOUTH AS THE ARKLATEX.
CLOSER TO HOME PATCHY AREAS OF POST FRONTAL LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE
WAS OCCURRING UNDER CLOUDY SKIES...WHILE WINDS WERE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST OCCASIONALLY GUSTING TO NEAR 20 MPH IN THE DELTA.
TEMPERATURES HAVE SHOWN ONLY SLIGHT COOLING SINCE MIDNIGHT WITH
MANY READINGS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
FOR TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
STACKED STORM IN THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL SLOWLY MEANDER
EAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST...KEEPING CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND BREEZY WEATHER IN THE
MIDSOUTH. ONLY CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS A BUMP UP TO
OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS THE NORTH DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND AN
ANTICIPATED MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. BEST THREAT FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS...BOTH THIS AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WILL LIE
EAST OF A CORNING ARKANSAS TO A SAVANNAH TENNESSEE LINE.
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BRIEFLY BUILD
OVER THE MIDSOUTH STARTING THURSDAY AS THE WESTERN RIDGE MOVES
INTO THE PLAINS AND DEAMPLIFIES. THIS WILL RESULT IN A MORE ZONAL
UPPER LEVEL FLOW...BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY A WARMER AND DRIER TREND
FOR OUR AREA. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BACK MORE SOUTHERLY...WITH
TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO ABOVE NORMAL. MANY FOLKS WILL SEE
HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. ONE THING
TO NOTE THOUGH...THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
OVER THE LOWER TENNESSEE RIVER COUNTIES ON THURSDAY.
BY LATE FRIDAY THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE FIRST OF TWO DESCENDING
SHORTWAVES IN THE UPPER MIDWEST. THESE FEATURES WILL CARVE OUT A
NEW TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION AND SEND A COUPLE
OF WEAK COLD FRONTS THROUGH THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED
WITH THE FIRST FRONT LATE FRIDAY...WITH ONLY PASSING CLOUDS
CURRENTLY EXPECTED. THE SECOND WILL HAVE A BIT MORE ENERGY AND
MOISTURE...GIVING THE MIDSOUTH MORE CLOUD COVER AND A THREAT FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS FROM LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HAVE GONE
COOLER THAN THE EXTENDED MODEL FORECASTS WITH TEMPERATURES STARTING
SATURDAY...BUT THIS WILL ONLY RESULT IN THE REGION STAYING VERY
CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS.
JAB
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF SET
SCATTERED SHRAS CURRENTLY CONTINUE ACROSS THE CWA. CIGS HAVE
LIFTED TO VFR. EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER BACK TO MVFR DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. W WINDS OF 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 22 KTS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z. SPEEDS WILL DECREASE DOWN TO 8-10 KTS DURING
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN BY 15Z.
KRM
&&
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GREEN BAY WI
514 PM CDT TUE OCT 14 2014
NEW INFORMATION ADDED TO UPDATE SECTION
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 444 PM CDT TUE OCT 14 2014
HAVE RECEIVED NUMEROUS REPORTS OF DOWNED TREES AND POWER OUTAGES
FM MAINLY E-C WI WITH THE SURGE OF STG NE WINDS THAT OCCURRED THIS
AFTN. WE/VE SEEN SURGES OF STG NE WINDS AHEAD OF CYCLONES IN THE
PAST...BUT IN MOST CASES THE STG WINDS SURGED SWWD DOWN THE LAKE
AND BAY AND WERE DUE PRIMARILY TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ITSELF AND
MIXING INTO STG NELY FLOW AT 925-850 MB. THIS TIME THE STRONG
WINDS SURGED NWD ACRS THE AREA...AN INDICATION THAT SOMETHING A
LITTLE DIFFERENT WAS OCCURRING.
MESOPLOTS INDICATED STG 1-HOUR PRESSURE FALL CENTER LIFTG NWD
THROUGH ERN WI AT THE TIME THE STG WINDS WERE OCCURRING...WHICH
WOULD BE CONSISTENT WITH A GRAVITY WAVE GENERATED BY STG UPR SPEED
MAX HEADING UP THE ERN SIDE OF THE SHARP UPR TROF ACRS THE RGN.
THAT ALSO FITS WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OCCURRING NR THE BACK EDGE
OF THE BAND OF PCPN MOVG THROUGH THE AREA AT THAT TIME.
THE STRONGEST WINDS WERE NOW IN THE NE CORNER OF THE FCST
AREA...SO THE EFFECTS OF THE FEATURE SHOULD PUSH OUT OF THE AREA
IN THE NEXT HR OR SO. HOWEVER...NOW WE ARE IN A MORE TYPICAL SITN
WHERE STG NE WINDS IN THE 925-850 MB LAYER WERE IN PLACE OVER THE
BAY AND WRN LAKE MICHIGAN. RAP ACTUALLY EDGES THE 925 MB WINDS UP
TO 50 KTS OVER THE BAY ARND MIDNIGHT BEFORE THEY START BACK DOWN.
LOW-LEVEL STABILITY IS NOT AS FAVORABLE FOR MIXING AS IT COULD BE
AS AIR TEMPS ARE FAIRLY MILD. BUT...STILL THINK THIS SET-UP WL
KEEP FAIRLY STG/GUSTY WINDS GOING OVER ERN WI THROUGH THE
EVENING...THOUGH PEAK WIND SPEEDS SHOULD NOT BE AS HIGH AS THIS
AFTN. PCPN IS ALSO LIKELY TO INCR AGAIN OVER ERN WI AS WE HEAD
THROUGH THE EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT TUE OCT 14 2014
A BAND OF SHOWERS MOVED ACROSS NORTHEAST WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON.
ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE LINE OF SHOWERS...GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS
WERE REPORTED ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN FOR AN HOUR OR
TWO. NUMEROUS TREES OR TREE BRANCHES WERE DOWN ACROSS THE REGION
ALONG WITH POWER OUTAGES. THIS BAND OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE NORTH OF
THE AREA BY THIS EVENING.
FOLLOWED THE HRR FOR PRECIPITATION TRENDS TONIGHT. THIS MODEL
WOULD SUGGEST A BREAK/LULL IN THE ACTION EARLY THIS EVENING WITH
INCREASING CHANCES AS THE EVENING PROGRESS AS SHORTWAVE PIVOTS
AROUND THE UPPER LOW. WILL HAVE LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS IN THE FAR
EAST WITH LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FAR WEST LATE
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. DID LOWER MIN TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
FAR NORTH TONIGHT WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME CLEARING LATE THIS
TONIGHT. WARMEST TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE ACROSS THE WEST
WHERE MORE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT TUE OCT 14 2014
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE TRENDED BETTER TO A SOLUTION WITH
RESPECT TO THE DEPARTURE OF THE UPPER LOW SYSTEM FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WILL DIMINISH POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AND
START OUT WITH A BRIEF DRIER PERIOD THURSDAY AS A WEAK RIDGE
DRIFTS OVER THE STATE.
THE NEXT SHORT WAVE WITH A COOLER CANADIAN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL DROP INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION LATER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. TEMPS ARE MARGINALLY COOL ENOUGH FOR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
MIXED WITH THE RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE FAR NORTH. WILL LEAVE OUT THE
MENTION FOR NOW SINCE DEALING WITH LOWER END POP CHANCES.
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SLIDES OVER LATER SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY...FOLLOWED WITH ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
PROGS ARE STILL SUGGESTING THE UPPER RIDGE TO BEGIN TO BUILDING INTO
THE AREA AFTER NEXT MONDAY FOR A DRIER AND MILDER PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1129 AM CDT TUE OCT 14 2014
UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...THEN AWAY FROM WISCONSIN ON WEDNESDAY.
WEAK SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL BRING PERIODIC
CHANCES FOR RAIN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A BATTLE OF DRIER AIR WORKING
IN FROM THE WEST AND THE SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW
THAT WILL DETERMINE HOW FAR WEST THE PRECIPITATION WILL MAKE. ONCE
THE PRECIPITATION ENDS THIS AFTERNOON...WILL NOT MENTION PRECIPITATION
IN THE 18Z TAF AT KRHI...WHILE ANY PRECIPITATION AT KAUW/KCWA WOULD
LINGER INTO THE EVENING AS SHOWERS PIVOT AROUND THE UPPER LOW. THE
BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE FOR KGRB/KATW/KMTW...ALTHOUGH
SHOULD BE DECREASING LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. MVFR/IFR
CIGS WILL CONTINUE TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH DRIER
MOVING INTO THE REGION SHOULD BRING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE.........SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....ECKBERG
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......ECKBERG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
403 PM CDT TUE OCT 14 2014
ADDED AVIATION AND MARINE SECTIONS
.TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
THE OCCLUDED SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL IL. THIS SYSTEM IS
CAUSING SEVERAL COMPLEX WEATHER FEATURES OVER SOUTHERN WI WHERE THE
SURFACE/925MB FRONT EXTENDS NORTHWARD FROM THE LOW. ALL BUT FAR
SOUTHEAST WI NEAR KENOSHA HAVE SWITCHED OVER TO NORTHERLY WINDS WITH
THIS FRONT. THE WINDS ARE SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AND INCREASING JUST
BEHIND THE FRONT. THE HIGHEST WINDS ARE ACCELERATING DOWN THE
LAKESHORE FASTER THAN JUST INLAND.
ANOTHER THING THAT HAPPENED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WAS STRONG WINDS
DEVELOPED IN THE WAKE OF PRECIP ENDING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. WINDS
GUST TO 50 MPH IN SHEBOYGAN AROUND 1 PM WITH THIS FEATURE. THE WIND
GUSTS HAVE COME DOWN TO 35-40 MPH LATE THIS AFTERNOON... AND WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING.
12Z MODELS CAME IN WITH SLIGHTLY LESS PRECIP THAN PREVIOUS RUNS FOR
TONIGHT. THE MESOSCALE MODELS SUPPORT THE LIGHTER SOLUTION FOR
TONIGHT. THE HRRR HAS HAD A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON PRECIP COVERAGE
ALL DAY. THE NEXT BETTER-DEFINED ROUND OF RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH A
SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW THAT IS PROGGED TO SWING
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE MKX AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT THROUGH 4 AM. THE
EAST HALF OF THE MKX AREA WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
SHOWERS.
.WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW AND SURFACE LOW DRIFT THRUOGH INDIANA AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY
CONTINUES TO ROTATE AROUND THEM THROUGH SOUTHEAST WI. EXPECTING
COOLER TEMPS WEDNESDAY THAN WHAT THEY WERE TODAY... WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 50S. EXPECT BRISK NORTH WINDS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20-23 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
BROAD AND DOMINATING UPPER LOW CIRCULATION SLOWLY SHIFTS INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY THIS PERIOD. SOME DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO HOW
QUICK SE WI EXITS THE INFLUENCE OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE
NORTHWEST WIDE OF THIS CIRCULATION...BUT FOR THE MOST PART LOOK
LIKE MIDDAY THURSDAY AND INTO THE AFTERNOON...THE MID LEVEL
RIDGING TAKES HOLD. WILL LINGER SHRA CHANCES INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BUT EVEN WITH THE NEW TAM COMING AROUND TO A DRIER SCENARIO
THURSDAY...WILL GO THE DRY ROUTE. THE TAM HANGS ONTO MORE LVL RH
INTO THURSDAY WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF MORE AGGRESSIVE ON CLEARING
THINGS OUT. 925 TEMPS AVERAGE 9-12C SO ANY SUN WOULD ALLOW TEMPS
TO NUDGE INTO THE LOW 60S.
.FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SHORTWAVE TREKS TO OUR NORTH WITH LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE
POSITIONED INTO SE WI EARLY IN THE DAY. LOW LEVEL COLD AVECTION
RAMPS UP A BIT ON INCREASING NW WINDS. CONSENSUS OF MODELS IS TO
KEEP ANY PRECIP TO OUR NORTH. 12Z ECMWF HAS SAGGED SOME QPF
FURTHER FRIDAY NIGHT BUT FOR THE MOST PART THIS IS AN OUTLIER.
.SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY QUIET NORTHWEST FLOW WITH SURFACE HIGH MOVING
A BITY CLOSER FROM THE PLAINS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE TRENDS WITH
THE ECMWF SHOWING A WETTER LOOK BUT GFS/GEM BOTH DERY. INFLUENCE
OF THE LOW LEVEL COOL POOL IN PLACE WITH 925 TEMPS DOWN TO 3-5C.
.SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING INFLUENCE OF
SHORTWAVE DIVING INTO THE PLAINS. SOME DIFFERENCES ON HOW
AMPLIFIED THIS FEATURE WILL BE THOUGH ECMWF AND GEM SHOW A FAIRLY
DECENT PORT WHILE THE GFS IS WEAKER. 12Z ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF A
BIT ON BRINGING PRECIS INTO WESTERN CWA BEFORE THE DAY IS OUT.
FOR NOW WENT WITH THE POPS WHICH HAS A SLIGHT CHANCE INTO THE
WEST. MUCH OF THE AREA LOOKS DRY WITH POTENTIAL FOR INCREASING
CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE WAVE AND WITH WAN KICKING IN. LATER SHIFTS
MAY BE ABLE TO ELIMINATE THIS POP IF THE DRY TREND BECOMES
CONSISTENT.
.SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW
LOTS OF MODEL VARIABILITY THIS PERIOD WITH BOTH THE GFS AND GEM
SHOWING A STRONGER WAVE WITH BIG TIMING DIFFERENCES...WHILE THE
ECMWF SHOWING A WEAKER POSITIVE TILT WAVE WITH LITTLE OR NO
PRECIS. HAVE KEPT POPS IN PLACE FOR NOW BUT IF WEAKER SOLUTION
OF THE ECMWF BECOMES THE PREVAILING IDEA THEN POP REDUCTION OR
REMOVAL WOULD BECOME NECESSARY.
.TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT OF NORTHWEST ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND
THE PRONOUNCED UPPER RIDGE BUILDING THROUGH THE PLAINS. LARGE
SURFACE HIGH LOOKS TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH
&&
.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS ILLINOIS AND INDIANA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH THE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN. GUSTY NORTH WINDS IN THE WAKE OF A FRONT WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE NIGHT. HIGHEST GUSTS WILL BE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. EXPECT WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS AT
TIMES.
EXPECT IFR CIGS THROUGH THE NIGHT IN SOUTHEAST WI. SOUTH CENTRAL
WI...MSN... COULD SEE CIGS RISE TO 1000-1500 FEET JUST PRIOR TO 12Z
WED. EXPECT SOUTHEAST WI CIGS TO LIFT TO 1000-1500 FT AFTER 12Z THEN
ABOVE 2000 FT BY WED AFTERNOON. THIS IS MORE PESSIMISTIC THAN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST/ 18Z TAF.
SHOWERS OVER FAR SOUTHERN AND WESTERN WI WILL MOVE OUT THIS EVENING.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS IS LIKELY NEAR SHEBOYGAN AROUND MIDNIGHT...
SPREADING DOWN THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES THROUGH EARLY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF A FRONT WERE EXCEEDING GALE FORCE
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND ARE NOW DROPPING DOWN BELOW THAT LEVEL. A
FEW WIND GUSTS COULD STILL REACH GALE FORCE THIS EVENING FROM PORT
WASHINGTON SOUTH TO KENOSHA AS THE FRONT MAKES ITS WAY DOWN THE
LAKE.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS
TO 25 KNOTS. THESE WILL PERSIST THROUGH WED AFTERNOON.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ643>646.
&&
$$
TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...COLLAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
333 PM CDT TUE OCT 14 2014
.TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
THE OCCLUDED SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL IL. THIS SYSTEM IS
CAUSING SEVERAL COMPLEX WEATHER FEATURES OVER SOUTHERN WI WHERE THE
SURFACE/925MB FRONT EXTENDS NORTHWARD FROM THE LOW. ALL BUT FAR
SOUTHEAST WI NEAR KENOSHA HAVE SWITCHED OVER TO NORTHERLY WINDS WITH
THIS FRONT. THE WINDS ARE SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AND INCREASING JUST
BEHIND THE FRONT. THE HIGHEST WINDS ARE ACCELERATING DOWN THE
LAKESHORE FASTER THAN JUST INLAND.
ANOTHER THING THAT HAPPENED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WAS STRONG WINDS
DEVELOPED IN THE WAKE OF PRECIP ENDING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. WINDS
GUST TO 50 MPH IN SHEBOYGAN AROUND 1 PM WITH THIS FEATURE. THE WIND
GUSTS HAVE COME DOWN TO 35-40 MPH LATE THIS AFTERNOON... AND WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING.
12Z MODELS CAME IN WITH SLIGHTLY LESS PRECIP THAN PREVIOUS RUNS FOR
TONIGHT. THE MESOSCALE MODELS SUPPORT THE LIGHTER SOLUTION FOR
TONIGHT. THE HRRR HAS HAD A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON PRECIP COVERAGE
ALL DAY. THE NEXT BETTER-DEFINED ROUND OF RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH A
SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW THAT IS PROGGED TO SWING
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE MKX AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT THROUGH 4 AM. THE
EAST HALF OF THE MKX AREA WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
SHOWERS.
.WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW AND SURFACE LOW DRIFT THRUOGH INDIANA AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY
CONTINUES TO ROTATE AROUND THEM THROUGH SOUTHEAST WI. EXPECTING
COOLER TEMPS WEDNESDAY THAN WHAT THEY WERE TODAY... WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 50S. EXPECT BRISK NORTH WINDS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20-23 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
BROAD AND DOMINATING UPPER LOW CIRCULATION SLOWLY SHIFTS INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY THIS PERIOD. SOME DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO HOW
QUICK SE WI EXITS THE INFLUENCE OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE
NORTHWEST WIDE OF THIS CIRCULATION...BUT FOR THE MOST PART LOOK
LIKE MIDDAY THURSDAY AND INTO THE AFTERNOON...THE MID LEVEL
RIDGING TAKES HOLD. WILL LINGER SHRA CHANCES INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BUT EVEN WITH THE NEW TAM COMING AROUND TO A DRIER SCENARIO
THURSDAY...WILL GO THE DRY ROUTE. THE TAM HANGS ONTO MORE LVL RH
INTO THURSDAY WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF MORE AGGRESSIVE ON CLEARING
THINGS OUT. 925 TEMPS AVERAGE 9-12C SO ANY SUN WOULD ALLOW TEMPS
TO NUDGE INTO THE LOW 60S.
.FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SHORTWAVE TREKS TO OUR NORTH WITH LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE
POSITIONED INTO SE WI EARLY IN THE DAY. LOW LEVEL COLD AVECTION
RAMPS UP A BIT ON INCREASING NW WINDS. CONSENSUS OF MODELS IS TO
KEEP ANY PRECIP TO OUR NORTH. 12Z ECMWF HAS SAGGED SOME QPF
FURTHER FRIDAY NIGHT BUT FOR THE MOST PART THIS IS AN OUTLIER.
.SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY QUIET NORTHWEST FLOW WITH SURFACE HIGH MOVING
A BITY CLOSER FROM THE PLAINS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE TRENDS WITH
THE ECMWF SHOWING A WETTER LOOK BUT GFS/GEM BOTH DERY. INFLUENCE
OF THE LOW LEVEL COOL POOL IN PLACE WITH 925 TEMPS DOWN TO 3-5C.
.SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING INFLUENCE OF
SHORTWAVE DIVING INTO THE PLAINS. SOME DIFFERENCES ON HOW
AMPLIFIED THIS FEATURE WILL BE THOUGH ECMWF AND GEM SHOW A FAIRLY
DECENT PORT WHILE THE GFS IS WEAKER. 12Z ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF A
BIT ON BRINGING PRECIS INTO WESTERN CWA BEFORE THE DAY IS OUT.
FOR NOW WENT WITH THE POPS WHICH HAS A SLIGHT CHANCE INTO THE
WEST. MUCH OF THE AREA LOOKS DRY WITH POTENTIAL FOR INCREASING
CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE WAVE AND WITH WAN KICKING IN. LATER SHIFTS
MAY BE ABLE TO ELIMINATE THIS POP IF THE DRY TREND BECOMES
CONSISTENT.
.SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW
LOTS OF MODEL VARIABILITY THIS PERIOD WITH BOTH THE GFS AND GEM
SHOWING A STRONGER WAVE WITH BIG TIMING DIFFERENCES...WHILE THE
ECMWF SHOWING A WEAKER POSITIVE TILT WAVE WITH LITTLE OR NO
PRECIS. HAVE KEPT POPS IN PLACE FOR NOW BUT IF WEAKER SOLUTION
OF THE ECMWF BECOMES THE PREVAILING IDEA THEN POP REDUCTION OR
REMOVAL WOULD BECOME NECESSARY.
.TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT OF NORTHWEST ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND
THE PRONOUNCED UPPER RIDGE BUILDING THROUGH THE PLAINS. LARGE
SURFACE HIGH LOOKS TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH
&&
.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...COMING SOON.
&&
.MARINE...COMING SOON.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ643>646.
&&
$$
TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...COLLAR