Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 10/12/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
956 AM MDT FRI OCT 10 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 948 AM MDT FRI OCT 10 2014
HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS THIS MORNING TO REFLECT A FASTER TREND IN
DECREASING PCPN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...ALTHOUGH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON. ALSO KEPT SOME PATCHY FOG OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH 18Z.
LATEST RUC AND HRRR RUNS INDICATE LITTLE IF ANY QPF ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS...WITH JUST SOME LINGERING POPS IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY AND ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 430 AM MDT FRI OCT 10 2014
RADAR DATA HAS BEEN STRUGGLING TO SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY TO RAIN
SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE OVER THE STATE PREPARES TO MOVE OUT OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE DEEPER CLOUDS ARE ALL
OVER THE NORTHEAST AND EAST-CENTRAL PLAINS AT THIS TIME WITH ONLY
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE HANGING BACK OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHEAST
PLAINS. RADAR DERIVED WIND PROFILE SHOWS THAT WINDS IN THE LOWEST
3000 FEET ARE OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHEAST...INDICATING DRIER LOW
LEVEL AIR MOVING INTO THE STATE OUT OF WYOMING. THIS IS GOING TO
KEEP CEILINGS HIGHER AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST
COLORADO THIS MORNING. SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE DOING A POOR JOB OF
IDENTIFYING THIS INTRUSION OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR...AND SURFACE
PRESSURE PATTERNS WOULD NOT INDICATE ANY NORTHERLY
FLOW...YET...THERE IT IS IN THE RADAR DATA.
SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY STILL PERSISTS OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE...AND
WITH MOIST EASTERLY WINDS STILL INDICATED AT MID- LEVELS...WILL
NEED TO HOLD ONTO SHOWERS LIKELY OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE WRAPPING UP BY
MIDDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE STATE ENTIRELY.
MOUNTAIN AREAS ONLY SEEM TO BE GETTING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS UP AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH NO ACCUMULATIONS EVIDENT ON CDOT WEB
CAMERAS. WITH ONLY LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED FROM HERE
ON OUT...WILL CANCEL THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN ZONE 34.
DRY WEATHER AND SEASONAL LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE THE RULE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BEGINS
BUILDING OVER THE STATE AND DRY AIR ADVECTS INTO REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM MDT FRI OCT 10 2014
WNW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE AREA ON SAT. SOME MID LVL MOISTURE
WILL AFFECT THE MTNS BY AFTN WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SOME WDLY SCT
SHOWERS SO WILL INCLUDE LOW POPS. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY AS AS
A SFC LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR SOME DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO DVLP AND ALLOW FOR HIGHS TO REACH
THE LOW TO MID 70S ALONG THE FRONT RANGE WITH NEAR 70 OVER THE FAR
ERN PLAINS.
ON SUN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN NW FLOW WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS NERN CO. COMBINATION OF MID LVL QG
ASCENT...FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES ALONG WITH BEING IN THE LEFT FNT QUAD
OF UPPER LEVEL JET SHOULD LEAD TO A GOOD CHC OF PCPN OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN ESPECIALLY FM MIDDAY THRU THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. MAY SEE
ADVISORY TYPE SNOW AMOUNTS ABV 10000 FEET. AT LOWER ELEVATIONS COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS NERN CO BY MIDDAY WITH NNE LOW LVL
FLOW IN THE AFTN HOURS. WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME ENHANCEMENT OF PCPN
FM DENVER SOUTH TO THE PALMER DIVIDE AND IN THE SRN FOOTHILLS BY
AFTN WHICH MAY LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. MEANWHILE
FURTHER NORTH ALONG THE WY-NE BORDER PCPN CHANCES WILL BE LOWER.
SOUNDINGS SHOW SNOW LEVEL MAY DROP DOWN TO 6500 FEET BY LATE SUN
AFTN SO COULD SEE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE AND IN
THE FOOTHILLS. AS FOR HIGHS READINGS OVER MUCH OF NERN CO WILL PEAK
IN THE LOWER 60S BY MIDDAY AND THEN FALL THROUGH THE AFTN.
BY MON THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE SE OF THE AREA WITH DRIER
AIR IN NWLY FLOW ALOFT. CROSS-SECTIONS SHOW SOME LINGERING MOISTURE
AT MTN TOP IN THE MORNING SO WILL KEEP IN A SLIGHT CHC OF -SHSN...
OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY. HIGHS ON MON WILL REMAIN BLO NORMAL OVER
NERN CO WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
FOR TUE AND WED AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA WITH
THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMING MORE SWLY. THUS EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS BOTH
DAYS WITH WARMER TEMPS ACROSS NERN CO AS READINGS RISE BACK ABV
SEASONAL NORMALS BY WED. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL FLATTEN SOME ON
THU HOWEVER IT STILL LOOKS DRY. A WEAK CDFNT IS FCST TO MOVE INTO
NERN CO DURING THE DAY WHICH MAY DROP HIGHS BACK TO NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 948 AM MDT FRI OCT 10 2014
VFR VSBYS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...WITH A GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS...SHOULD SEE CIGS INCREASING TO 050-060 BY
20Z. WITH VFR CIGS/VSBYS AFTER 00Z. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE
SATURDAY MORNING IN THE 11-15Z TIME FRAME NORTH AND EAST OF KDEN
...SO IT MAY NEED TO ADDRESSED WITH VCFG WORDING IN THE 18Z TAF
ISSUANCE.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...COOPER
SHORT TERM...DANKERS
LONG TERM...RPK
AVIATION...COOPER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
346 AM EDT FRI OCT 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LOSE ITS INFLUENCE OVER OUR REGION TODAY. LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY TO
VIRGINIA TONIGHT BEFORE PASSING OFF THE DELMARVA COAST ON SATURDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TO THE NORTHEASTERN STATES ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY BEFORE
MOVING OFF THE COAST EARLY IN THE NEW WEEK. A COLD FRONT IS
ANTICIPATED TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND IT SHOULD ARRIVE IN OUR
REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT NORTH AS THE SLOW MOVING FRONT APPROACHES
THE REGION. AS IT DOES SO, EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS AND RAIN
CHANCES. THE GFS SHOWS PRECIP STARTING AS EARLY AS THIS MORNING,
ASSOCIATED WITH A NARROW BAND OF LOW AND MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
SLIDING NW INTO OUR REGION. WHILE THIS IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE, AS
BOTH THE NAM AND RAP ALSO SHOW A NARROW BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS, THE
QUESTION REMAINS WHERE WILL THIS BAND DEVELOP. EXTRAPOLATING FROM
THE 06Z POSITION OF THE FRONT, FROM FAR SW KENTUCKY INTO SOUTHERN
WEST VIRGINIA, AND GIVEN THE SLOW PROGRESS OF THIS FRONT, WOULD
EXPECT THIS BAND TO BE ACROSS DELMARVA OR EVEN JUST SOUTH OF OUR
CWA. THUS, DECREASED POPS THROUGH THE MORNING, NOT BRINGING IN ANY
LIKELY MENTION UNTIL AFTER 18Z.
WITH THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER, EXPECT A RATHER CHILLY DAY, WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S AND 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
OVERNIGHT, ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO THE UPPER LEVELS, AS A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION,
PROVIDING PROVIDING SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT EVEN AS FRONTOGENESIS IN
THE LOW AND MID LEVELS IS NEGLIGIBLE. THUS, EXPECT WIDESPREAD
STRATIFORM RAIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO SHIFT
BACK SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT, SHOULD SEE THE BEGINNINGS OF DRY AIR
ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS.
THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE SHOULD BE TEMPERED BY ABUNDANT CLOUD
CLOUD COVER. THUS, EXPECT LOWS TO BE ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES HIGHER
THAN THIS MORNING.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE 0000 UTC GFS AND ECMWF ARE SIMILAR IN HANDLING THE MID LEVEL
PATTERN BETWEEN SATURDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. BOTH MODELS BRING A
SHORT WAVE OVERHEAD IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ON SATURDAY NIGHT
FOLLOWED BY RIDGING ON SUNDAY. THE RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO PASS
OVERHEAD LATE ON SUNDAY. A SHARP LONG WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE MIDDLE PART OF THE COUNTRY ON MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. A CUT OFF LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP ON TUESDAY. THE GFS
IS PROGRESSIVE WITH THE FEATURE, BRINGING IT TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER VALLEY FOR THURSDAY. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE CUT OFF LOW OVER
ILLINOIS AND INDIANA FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE ECMWF`S
SOLUTION IS A MAJOR CHANGE FROM ITS PREVIOUS RUN WHEN IT WAS MORE
SIMILAR TO THE GFS. WE WILL FAVOR THE GFS FOR NOW TO MAINTAIN
FORECAST CONSISTENCY.
IT SHOULD BE RAINING THROUGHOUT OUR FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY
MORNING. THE AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY PULL OFF THE COAST
DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY ALONG WITH THE SURFACE LOW.
WE HAVE DECREASED THE CLOUD COVER FORECAST FOR THE PERIOD FROM
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE. HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHEASTERN
STATES AT THAT TIME.
THE SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN DRIFTING OFF THE COAST ON
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE WARM ADVECTION FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH
SHOULD RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY IN OUR
WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES.
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS INCREASES FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND MOVES INTO OUR
REGION.
THE FORECAST FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD REMAINS ONE OF LOW
CONFIDENCE. IF THE PROGRESSIVE GFS IS CORRECT, WE MAY SEE SOME
DRYING FOR THURSDAY. HOWEVER, IF THE TREND OF THE LATEST ECMWF
PERSISTS, ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY OCCUR LATE IN THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE COOL FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY DUE TO THE
NORTHERLY FLOW. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 60S
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S.
READINGS FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BECOME MILD DUE TO THE
DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW. HIGHS SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 60S
AND 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP BACK A BIT AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSES.
LATE WEEK HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN
THE 45 TO 55 DEGREE RANGE.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z. BY 15Z, MID
LEVEL CLOUDS, ALBEIT VFR CEILINGS, WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION
IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. THE CEILING WILL SLOWLY LOWER
THROUGH THE DAY, GENERALLY EXPECTING DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TO
SPREAD FROM SW TO NE. THOUGH THERE IS A CHANCE FOR -RA THROUGH OUT
THE TAF PERIOD, EXPECT THE PRIME PERIOD TO BE AFTER 18Z. WITH
SUNSET, COULD ALSO SEE SOME BR DEVELOPMENT, AND WOULD THEN EXPECT
TO SEE WIDESPREAD MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS. DEPENDING ON HOW
QUICKLY THE FRONT SHIFTS BACK SOUTH AFTER 06Z, COULD EVEN SEE IFR
VISIBILITIES. THE LARGEST THREAT FOR IFR CONDITIONS WOULD BE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION INCLUDING KILG, KMIV, AND
KACY.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN MORNING RAIN.
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO IMPROVE TO VFR FOR THE AFTERNOON.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
LATE NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE POSSIBLE WITH
CONDITIONS DROPPING TO MVFR OR IFR.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA TODAY AND TONIGHT,
THOUGH A FEW GUSTS NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 20KT ARE POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT. ALSO POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT WILL BE PATCHY FOG REDUCING
VISIBILITIES, ESPECIALLY ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS. HOWEVER, AT THIS
TIME THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN HOW LOW VISIBILITIES
WILL DROP.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS MAY APPROACH
25 KNOTS.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED.
TUESDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BECOME NECESSARY DUE TO
SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS AND WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR
OCEAN WATERS BUILDING TO 5 TO 6 FEET.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/JOHNSON
MARINE...IOVINO/JOHNSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
112 PM EDT FRI OCT 10 2014
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST AT ALL SOUTH
FLORIDA TERMINALS. THERE MAY BE A STRAY SHRA OVER THE ATLANTIC
THAT MOVES ONSHORE BUT THESE WILL BE VERY BRIEF AND TOO ISOLATED
TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. A LIGHT-MODERATE ENE
WIND IS ANTICIPATED AT ALL SITES.
KOB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 740 AM EDT FRI OCT 10 2014/
UPDATE...A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE ATLANTIC ARE MOVING ONSHORE THE
MIAMI-DADE COUNTY COAST THIS MORNING. HRRR SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS
IMPACTING THE SE FLORIDA COAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SO HAVE PLACED
A 20 POP IN FOR THE EAST COAST METRO TODAY...AND ADDED JUST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A LATE DAY SHOWER FOR THE GULF COAST. NO OTHER
CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. /GREGORIA
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 717 AM EDT FRI OCT 10 2014/
AVIATION...
A MOSTLY DRY AND VFR FORECAST WILL PREVAIL. A CONVERGENT BAND OF
SHRA IS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND COULD BRIEFLY AFFECT THE
MIAMI-DADE COUNTY TERMINALS THROUGH 14Z BUT MOSTLY DISSIPATING AS
THEY MOVE ONSHORE SO ONLY PLACED VCSH IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. A
MODERATE ENE WIND FLOW IS ANTICIPATED WITH SPEEDS OF 12-14KT ALONG
THE EAST COAST AND 10-12KT AT KAPF.
KOB
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM EDT FRI OCT 10 2014/
DRIER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY INTO THIS
WEEKEND BEFORE RAIN CHANCES INCREASES EARLY NEXT WEEK...
SHORT TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA TODAY INTO
TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR A NORTHEAST WIND FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING IN DRIER AIR TO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH FOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR THE ISOLATED SHOWERS
OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS TO
DISSIPATE TOWARDS SUNRISE TODAY. THEREFORE...THE WEATHER FOR TODAY
INTO TONIGHT WILL BE DRY ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS THIS
WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR THE WIND FLOW TO SLOWLY SWING TO A MORE
EASTERLY DIRECTION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO
RETURN TO SOUTH FLORIDA LATE THIS WEEKEND. THEREFORE...THE WEATHER
WILL REMAIN DRY ON SATURDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON
SUNDAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS IS OVER THE WEST COAST METRO
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON SUNDAY.
LONG TERM...
THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FURTHER EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC
WATERS EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK ALLOWING FOR A COLD FRONT TO
MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL IN TURN ALLOW FOR THE
STEERING FLOW TO BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST OVER SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE WORKING INTO THE AREA.
THEREFORE...THE POPS WILL BE ON AN INCREASE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS.
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA FOR
THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK AND SLOWLY PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO THE
FLORIDA KEYS BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TROPICAL
MOISTURE TO REMAIN OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
BEFORE SLOWLY PUSHING SOUTHWARD INTO THE FLORIDA KEYS END OF NEXT
WEEK. THEREFORE...THE POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
RANGE FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE SLOWLY DECREASING IN
COVERAGE BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
MARINE...
THE WIND DIRECTION WILL BE NORTHEAST TODAY INTO SATURDAY BEFORE
SLOWLY SWINGING TO A SOUTHEAST DIRECTION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE AROUND 15 KNOTS TODAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL KEEP THE SEAS AT 5 FEET OR LESS IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND 3 FEET OR LESS IN THE GULF WATERS.
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
740 AM EDT FRI OCT 10 2014
.UPDATE...A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE ATLANTIC ARE MOVING ONSHORE THE
MIAMI-DADE COUNTY COAST THIS MORNING. HRRR SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS
IMPACTING THE SE FLORIDA COAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SO HAVE PLACED
A 20 POP IN FOR THE EAST COAST METRO TODAY...AND ADDED JUST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A LATE DAY SHOWER FOR THE GULF COAST. NO OTHER
CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. /GREGORIA
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 717 AM EDT FRI OCT 10 2014/
AVIATION...
A MOSTLY DRY AND VFR FORECAST WILL PREVAIL. A CONVERGENT BAND OF
SHRA IS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND COULD BRIEFLY AFFECT THE
MIAMI-DADE COUNTY TERMINALS THROUGH 14Z BUT MOSTLY DISSIPATING AS
THEY MOVE ONSHORE SO ONLY PLACED VCSH IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. A
MODERATE ENE WIND FLOW IS ANTICIPATED WITH SPEEDS OF 12-14KT ALONG
THE EAST COAST AND 10-12KT AT KAPF.
KOB
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM EDT FRI OCT 10 2014/
.DRIER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY INTO THIS
WEEKEND BEFORE RAIN CHANCES INCREASES EARLY NEXT WEEK...
SHORT TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA TODAY INTO
TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR A NORTHEAST WIND FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING IN DRIER AIR TO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH FOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR THE ISOLATED SHOWERS
OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS TO
DISSIPATE TOWARDS SUNRISE TODAY. THEREFORE...THE WEATHER FOR TODAY
INTO TONIGHT WILL BE DRY ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS THIS
WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR THE WIND FLOW TO SLOWLY SWING TO A MORE
EASTERLY DIRECTION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO
RETURN TO SOUTH FLORIDA LATE THIS WEEKEND. THEREFORE...THE WEATHER
WILL REMAIN DRY ON SATURDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON
SUNDAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS IS OVER THE WEST COAST METRO
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON SUNDAY.
LONG TERM...
THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FURTHER EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC
WATERS EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK ALLOWING FOR A COLD FRONT TO
MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL IN TURN ALLOW FOR THE
STEERING FLOW TO BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST OVER SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE WORKING INTO THE AREA.
THEREFORE...THE POPS WILL BE ON AN INCREASE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS.
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA FOR
THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK AND SLOWLY PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO THE
FLORIDA KEYS BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TROPICAL
MOISTURE TO REMAIN OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
BEFORE SLOWLY PUSHING SOUTHWARD INTO THE FLORIDA KEYS END OF NEXT
WEEK. THEREFORE...THE POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
RANGE FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE SLOWLY DECREASING IN
COVERAGE BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
MARINE...
THE WIND DIRECTION WILL BE NORTHEAST TODAY INTO SATURDAY BEFORE
SLOWLY SWINGING TO A SOUTHEAST DIRECTION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE AROUND 15 KNOTS TODAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL KEEP THE SEAS AT 5 FEET OR LESS IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND 3 FEET OR LESS IN THE GULF WATERS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 88 77 88 76 / 20 10 10 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 88 80 88 79 / 20 10 10 10
MIAMI 89 79 89 78 / 20 10 10 10
NAPLES 91 73 91 73 / 20 10 10 10
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
315 AM EDT FRI OCT 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
07Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED UPPER
LEVEL PATTER NOW IN PLACE OVER THE CONUS. NORTHERN STREAM FLOW RUNS
THROUGH WESTERN CANADA AND THEN DOWN THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES/NE
STATES AROUND A LARGE CLOSED LOW FEATURE SPINNING OVER EASTERN
CANADA. ONLY REAL WEATHER MAKER IN THE COUNTRY EARLY THIS MORNING IS
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH (PART OF THE REMNANTS OF EASTERN PACIFIC
HURRICANE SIMON) THAT IS EJECTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND HELPING TO FUEL AREAS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
ALONG A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM OKLAHOMA TO THE TN
VALLEY. CLOSER TO HOME...MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA
PENINSULA ARE NOW UNDER AN ELONGATED WEST TO EAST ORIENTED UPPER
RIDGE WHICH HAS HELPED TO SUPPRESS THE SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW AND ALL
ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH OF THE FL PENINSULA. COLUMN
ABOVE OUR HEADS IS FAIRLY DRY PER 10/00Z KTBW SOUNDING PROFILE WITH
A DEFINED SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AROUND 600MB.
AT THE SURFACE...
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM A HIGH CENTER OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS GA/FL PANHANDLE AND INTO THE
NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THIS POSITION PUTS OUR FORECAST AREA
WITHIN CLOCKWISE SYNOPTIC EASTERLY FLOW ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THIS
AXIS. TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING ARE SEASONABLE IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S. WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW PORTIONS OF PINELLAS COUNTY
AND CHARLOTTE HARBOR ARE HOLDING IN THE MIDDLE 70S DUE TO THE
PARTIAL FLOW OFF THE STILL WARMER WATERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
WELL FOLKS...THIS FORECASTER ALWAYS TRIES TO FIND SOMETHING
INTERESTING TO WRITE ABOUT AND EXPAND UPON...BUT TO BE HONEST...IT
IS DIFFICULT WITH THIS PARTICULAR PATTERN AND HOW QUIET IT SHOULD BE
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND EASTWARD OVER THE PENINSULA WITH
ITS INFLUENCE/HEIGHTS INCREASING BY A FEW DM DURING THE NEXT 24-36
HOURS. AT THE SAME TIME THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD AND RIDGE AXIS EXTENSION SOUTHWARD TO THE GULF WILL ONLY
SLIGHTLY MIGRATE EASTWARD...KEEPING MUCH OF OUR REGION WITHIN A
SYNOPTIC EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. THIS FLOW WILL BE MOST DEFINED TO
THE SOUTH OF I-4...FURTHER REMOVED FROM THE RIDGE AXIS.
THE INCREASING INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND INCREASED
SUPPRESSION WILL ONLY HELP TO FURTHER DRY OUT THE COLUMN WITHIN THE
MID-LEVELS. THE ONLY REAL APPRECIABLE MOISTURE WILL BE WHAT ARRIVES
BELOW AROUND 850MB OFF THE ATLANTIC WITHIN THE SYNOPTICALLY DRIVEN
EASTERLY FLOW. THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BASICALLY BE JUST
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW-SCT SHALLOW CU FIELD EACH LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BY LATE IN THE DAY...DIURNAL MIXING
WILL LIKELY EXPAND THE BOUNDARY LAYER ABOVE THIS LAYER OF ATLANTIC
MOISTURE AND ERODE THE CU FIELD...RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY
EARLY EVENING. WITH ESSENTIALLY NO SYNOPTIC SUPPORT FOR LARGE SCALE
ASCENT...AND A WIDESPREAD HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT TO SUPPORT DEEP
CONVECTION ABOVE 850MB...GOING TO KEEP RAIN CHANCES OUT OF THE
FORECAST FOR BOTH TODAY AND SATURDAY. SOMEHOW THE NAM CONVECTIVE
SCHEME IS KICKING OFF DOWN TOWARD OUR FAR SOUTHERN ZONES LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT NONE OF THE OTHER LARGE SCALE GUIDANCE
SCHEMES ARE BEGIN TRIGGERED (AS WOULD BE EXPECTED)...AND THE INNER
NAM HIRES CONVECTION ALLOWING MEMBER IS NOT PRODUCING ANY
PRECIPITATION COLUMNS OVER OUR SOUTHERN ZONES EITHER. IT IS ALSO
VERY TELLING ABOUT THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE ATMOSPHERE WHEN NOT
A SINGLE ENSEMBLE MEMBER CONVECTIVE SCHEME WITHIN THE SREF IS
TRIGGERED. HAVE BEEN VERY IMPRESSIVE OVERALL WITH THE NAM SINCE ITS
UPGRADE EARLIER THIS YEAR...HOWEVER HAVE NOTED ITS TENDENCY TO BE A
BIT AGGRESSIVE WITH WARM SEASON PULSE TYPE CONVECTION OVER THE
PENINSULA. SO...WITH ALL THIS IN MIND...WILL KEEP RAIN MENTION OUT
FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
ALL IN ALL...LOOKING FOR A DRY AND WARM FORECAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
WITH THE RIDGE OVER TOP OF THE REGION AND DECENT DIURNAL MIXING UP
TO AROUND 5000 FT BOTH DAYS...HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD EASILY REACH
WITHIN A DEGREE OR 2 EITHER SIDE OF 90. THESE TEMPERATURES END UP
JUST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE MIDDLE OF OCTOBER. HAVE A
GREAT FRIDAY AND ENJOY THE DRY WEATHER TO START OUT YOUR WEEKEND!
&&
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)...
WE CONTINUE TO HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS
MODELS HAVE SETTLED ON A SIMILAR SOLUTION FOR OUR COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE NEXT WEEK.
BEFORE THAT...DEEP LAYERED RIDGING BEGINS TO MOVE OUT TO THE EAST ON
SUNDAY AS A POTENT SHORT WAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA AND INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN QUITE DRY ON SUNDAY
WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS OUR FAR
SOUTHERN ZONES.
BY MONDAY...THE DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SOUTHWARD TO TEXAS. THIS TROUGH WILL BE
RATHER SHARP AND DEEP FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...AND WILL LIKELY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE AREA OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH TUESDAY.
OUT OF ALL THE MODELS...THE ECMWF HAS THE DEEPEST TROUGH AND BRINGS
A 35 KNOT 850MB JET ACROSS THE NATURE COAST TUESDAY. VERTICAL WIND
PROFILES ARE NEARLY UNI-DIRECTIONAL...BUT IT COULD BE ENOUGH FOR
SOME STRONG WINDS IN THE MORE INTENSE STORMS. AT THIS TIME...IT
LOOKS LIKE THE SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH.
TIMING AMONGST THE MODELS IS ACTUALLY QUITE GOOD CONSIDERING WE ARE
TALKING ABOUT AN EVENT THAT IS STILL FIVE DAYS OUT. THE BEST
DYNAMICS AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
ON TUESDAY FROM THE TAMPA BAY AREA NORTHWARD. THE MID-LEVELS
ACTUALLY DRY OUT RAPIDLY FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WE LOSE MOST OF OUR SYNOPTIC FORCING. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE
GOOD LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH A BROKEN LINE OF
SHOWERS OR STORMS CONTINUING SOUTHEASTWARD. THE RAINS MAY ACTUALLY
END BEFORE SUNRISE WEDNESDAY BUT WILL LEAVE SOME LINGERING SHOWER
CHANCES IN TO ACCOUNT FOR MINOR MODEL TIMING ISSUES.
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED...THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AS COOL AS THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT WE WILL
STILL BE 7 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN WHAT WE WILL EXPERIENCE THIS
WEEKEND...AND IT WILL FEEL MORE COMFORTABLE DUE TO THE DRIER AIR.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
EARLY THIS MORNING. BEST CHANCES FOR ANY VIS RESTRICTIONS WOULD BE
NORTH OF THE FORECAST TERMINALS...BUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR GROUND
FOG IS POSSIBLE AT KLAL OR KPGD TOWARD DAWN. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS AND THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. THERE ARE BETTER CHANCES
FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR VIS RESTRICTIONS FURTHER SOUTH INTO
WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH
KLAL AND KPGD AGAIN BEGIN THE MOST LIKELY TO SEE THE RESTRICTIONS.
&&
.MARINE...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN PARKED ALONG THE NORTHEAST GULF
COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS SOUTH OF THIS RIDGE WILL GENERALLY
FLOW FROM AN EASTERLY DIRECTION. SURGES OF WIND TO AROUND 15 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY TO THE
SOUTH OF TARPON SPRINGS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT OF
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY
KEEPING OUR WEATHER GENERALLY WARM AND RAIN FREE. DESPITE THE DRIER
CONDITIONS...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
CRITICAL LEVELS. NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE
ANTICIPATED.
AREAS OF GROUND FOG ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...HOWEVER POCKETS OF DENSE FOG
LOOKS TO BE MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 91 72 90 72 / 10 0 0 10
FMY 91 72 91 71 / 0 0 0 10
GIF 90 70 90 70 / 0 0 0 0
SRQ 91 72 91 71 / 10 0 0 10
BKV 91 64 91 63 / 0 0 0 10
SPG 90 76 90 76 / 10 0 0 10
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WX...MROCZKA
LONG TERM...JILLSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
1030 PM EDT SAT OCT 11 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIP SOUTH ACROSS THE MIDLANDS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE
NORTH SUNDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. COOL
TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT AT 00Z MOVING SOUTH THROUGH NORTH CAROLINA. FRONT
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO SOUTH CAROLINA OVERNIGHT. RADAR INDICATING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CLOSER TO THE FRONT MOVING TOWARD
COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA. BELIEVE CONVECTIVE THREAT HAS DIMINISHED
ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO WEAKENING INSTABILITY. LATEST HRRR MODEL
SUGGEST LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH AS
FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA...MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS. SO LOWERED POPS
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. TEMPERATURE FORECAST ON TRACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER OR NEAR THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A STRONG 1024MB SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM SETTLES OVER NEW ENGLAND AND RIDGES DOWN THE EAST
SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS. LOW LEVEL FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN
WESTERLY AND BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY ON SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO 500MB
HEIGHT AMPLIFICATION WITH A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
BASIN AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS PROVIDE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPING CAD WEDGE
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MUCH COOLER...SOME 15-20 DEGREES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MIDLANDS WITH LESS OF A 24 HR CHANGE IN THE
FRONTAL ZONE IN THE CSRA...BUT STILL COOLER UNDER OVERCAST SKIES
FROM LOW CLOUDS.
WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT DUE TO WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE SHALLOW CAD LAYER
RESULTING IN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND SOME DRIZZLE. A GRADIENT IN
TEMPS EXPECTED TONIGHT RANGING FROM UPPER 50S NORTH MIDLANDS TO
MID 60S ELSEWHERE AND A STRONGER TEMP GRADIENT ON SUNDAY WITH MAX
TEMPS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO LOWER 80S IN THE CSRA
CLOSE TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LOW CONFIDENCE WITH BUST POTENTIAL
IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST ON SUNDAY WITH HIGH DEPENDENCY ON THE
LOCATION OF THE FRONT AND EXTENT OF ISENTROPIC LIFTING.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...REASONABLY STRONG AGREEMENT IN THE MODEL
DATA SUGGESTING A DEEP AND POSSIBLE CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE
PLAINS STATES WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE NORTHEAST
COAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND RETURN SOUTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT THE WEDGE TO HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY MONDAY AND POSSIBLY BREAK LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING
WITH STRENGTHENING 850MB FLOW FROM THE SOUTH IN ADVANCE OF THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW
CHANCE POPS ON MONDAY BUT AGAIN LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO POSSIBLE
WEDGE CONDITIONS IN PLACE WHICH WOULD LIMIT INSTABILITY AND
POSSIBLE CONVECTION. SHOULD SEE WARMER TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY AS
ISENTROPIC LIFT WEAKENS AND SURFACE FLOW VEERS MORE SOUTHEASTERLY
FROM THE NORTHEAST.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THIS APPEARS TO THE BE MOST ACTIVE
PERIOD OF THE FORECAST BUT WITH UNCERTAINTY AS WELL REGARDING THE
POSSIBLE CUTOFF UPPER LOW WHICH COULD IMPACT TIMING OF A FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. A STRONG UPPER
TROUGH...POSSIBLY CLOSED LOW...IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION TUE/TUES NIGHT PUSHING
A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SOMETIME TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. FAVORABLE VEERING WIND PROFILE WITH STRONG 50
KNOT 850MB SOUTHERLY JET PROVIDING STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL
COINCIDE WITH UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF A 110 KNOT UPPER JET. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SHOULD
PEAK AROUND 2 INCHES ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE PROVIDING A HEAVY RAIN
THREAT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. DEPENDING ON TIMING OF THE
FRONT...THINK SEVERE WEATHER IS DEFINITELY A POSSIBILITY GIVEN THE
DYNAMICS PRESENT AND EVEN IF THE INSTABILITY IS NOT REALIZED THIS
COULD BE AN EARLY SEASON HSLC EVENT. WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS MAINTAINING PREVIOUS FORECAST POPS FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT DUE TO POSSIBLE TIMING ISSUES. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR A GRADIENT IN TEMPERATURES FROM WEST TO EAST
WITH THE WESTERN MIDLANDS A BIT COOLER DUE TO INCREASED CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION WHILE THE EASTERN MIDLANDS COULD SEE MAX TEMPS IN
THE 80S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FRONT WILL EXIT THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...MODELS DIFFER ON HOW QUICKLY
THE SYSTEM LEAVES THE AREA...ATTM GOING WITH WEDNESDAY DRY AND
CLOUDS DECREASING BUT THE FRONT MAY LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A FEW
CLOUDS BUT EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DRY OUT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION BY THURSDAY. THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM EXPECT
DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.
RESTRICTIONS WILL RETURN OVERNIGHT AS A WEDGE DEVELOPS RESULTING IN
LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES IN BEHIND THE
FRONT AND THE WEDGE BEGINS TO SET UP FOR SUNDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED AS A WEDGE
PERSISTS INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. RESTRICTIONS ALSO EXPECTED TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION BRINGING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
822 PM EDT SAT OCT 11 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIP SOUTH ACROSS THE MIDLANDS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE
NORTH SUNDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. COOL
TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT AT 00Z MOVING SOUTH THROUGH NORTH CAROLINA. FRONT
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO SOUTH CAROLINA OVERNIGHT. RADAR INDICATING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CLOSER TO THE FRONT MOVING TOWARD
COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA. BELIEVE CONVECTIVE THREAT HAS DIMINISHED
ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO WEAKENING INSTABILITY. LATEST HRRR MODEL
SUGGEST LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH AS
FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA...MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS. SO LOWERED POPS
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. TEMPERATURE FORECAST ON TRACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER OR NEAR THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A STRONG 1024MB SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM SETTLES OVER NEW ENGLAND AND RIDGES DOWN THE EAST
SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS. LOW LEVEL FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN
WESTERLY AND BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY ON SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO 500MB
HEIGHT AMPLIFICATION WITH A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
BASIN AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS PROVIDE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPING CAD WEDGE
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MUCH COOLER...SOME 15-20 DEGREES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MIDLANDS WITH LESS OF A 24 HR CHANGE IN THE
FRONTAL ZONE IN THE CSRA...BUT STILL COOLER UNDER OVERCAST SKIES
FROM LOW CLOUDS.
WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT DUE TO WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE SHALLOW CAD LAYER
RESULTING IN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND SOME DRIZZLE. A GRADIENT IN
TEMPS EXPECTED TONIGHT RANGING FROM UPPER 50S NORTH MIDLANDS TO
MID 60S ELSEWHERE AND A STRONGER TEMP GRADIENT ON SUNDAY WITH MAX
TEMPS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO LOWER 80S IN THE CSRA
CLOSE TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LOW CONFIDENCE WITH BUST POTENTIAL
IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST ON SUNDAY WITH HIGH DEPENDENCY ON THE
LOCATION OF THE FRONT AND EXTENT OF ISENTROPIC LIFTING.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...REASONABLY STRONG AGREEMENT IN THE MODEL
DATA SUGGESTING A DEEP AND POSSIBLE CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE
PLAINS STATES WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE NORTHEAST
COAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND RETURN SOUTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT THE WEDGE TO HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY MONDAY AND POSSIBLY BREAK LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING
WITH STRENGTHENING 850MB FLOW FROM THE SOUTH IN ADVANCE OF THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW
CHANCE POPS ON MONDAY BUT AGAIN LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO POSSIBLE
WEDGE CONDITIONS IN PLACE WHICH WOULD LIMIT INSTABILITY AND
POSSIBLE CONVECTION. SHOULD SEE WARMER TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY AS
ISENTROPIC LIFT WEAKENS AND SURFACE FLOW VEERS MORE SOUTHEASTERLY
FROM THE NORTHEAST.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THIS APPEARS TO THE BE MOST ACTIVE
PERIOD OF THE FORECAST BUT WITH UNCERTAINTY AS WELL REGARDING THE
POSSIBLE CUTOFF UPPER LOW WHICH COULD IMPACT TIMING OF A FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. A STRONG UPPER
TROUGH...POSSIBLY CLOSED LOW...IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION TUE/TUES NIGHT PUSHING
A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SOMETIME TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. FAVORABLE VEERING WIND PROFILE WITH STRONG 50
KNOT 850MB SOUTHERLY JET PROVIDING STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL
COINCIDE WITH UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF A 110 KNOT UPPER JET. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SHOULD
PEAK AROUND 2 INCHES ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE PROVIDING A HEAVY RAIN
THREAT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. DEPENDING ON TIMING OF THE
FRONT...THINK SEVERE WEATHER IS DEFINITELY A POSSIBILITY GIVEN THE
DYNAMICS PRESENT AND EVEN IF THE INSTABILITY IS NOT REALIZED THIS
COULD BE AN EARLY SEASON HSLC EVENT. WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS MAINTAINING PREVIOUS FORECAST POPS FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT DUE TO POSSIBLE TIMING ISSUES. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR A GRADIENT IN TEMPERATURES FROM WEST TO EAST
WITH THE WESTERN MIDLANDS A BIT COOLER DUE TO INCREASED CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION WHILE THE EASTERN MIDLANDS COULD SEE MAX TEMPS IN
THE 80S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FRONT WILL EXIT THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...MODELS DIFFER ON HOW QUICKLY
THE SYSTEM LEAVES THE AREA...ATTM GOING WITH WEDNESDAY DRY AND
CLOUDS DECREASING BUT THE FRONT MAY LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A FEW
CLOUDS BUT EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DRY OUT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION BY THURSDAY. THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM EXPECT
DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.
CONVECTION HAS ENDED ACROSS THE AREA. RESTRICTIONS WILL RETURN
OVERNIGHT AS A WEDGE DEVELOPS AND LOW CLOUDS AND LOWER VSBYS RETURN
TO THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND THE WEDGE
BEGINS TO SET UP FOR SUNDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED AS A WEDGE
DEVELOPS SUNDAY AND PERSISTS INTO MONDAY. RESTRICTIONS ALSO EXPECTED
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION BRINGING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
809 AM EDT FRI OCT 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY INTO
SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT DEVELOPS NORTH OF THE REGION. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL SLIP SOUTH ACROSS THE MIDLANDS LATE SATURDAY. COOL
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY. A STRONG COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS. COOL TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW FOR THE END
OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ISOLATED EARLY MORNING CONVECTION CONTINUED ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL MIDLANDS AND PORTIONS OF THE CSRA. THE RAP MODEL HOLD
ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE MIDLANDS THIS MORNING IN AN AREA OF
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WITH K INDEX VALUES 30C TO 35C.
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY ZONAL OVER OUR REGION WITH A
BROAD TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS AND A RIDGE OVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL HOLD NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO VIRGINIA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA.
RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS RIDGE WILL BRING INCREASING
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. WE CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.
STILL EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S
TO AROUND 90 AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE MIDLANDS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT AND STALL NEAR OR JUST SOUTH
OF THE CSRA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL RIDGE
INTO THE CAROLINAS RESULTING IN A SHALLOW WEDGE/COLD AIR DAMMING
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
MOST OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR THE FRONT ON SATURDAY...SO
KEPT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MIDLANDS. GIVEN
WEST-SOUTHWEST 850MB FLOW...TEMPERATURES WILL BE STILL BE WARM ON
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S NORTH TO NEAR 90
SOUTH. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
WITH SHALLOW WEDGE/COLD AIR DAMMING ON SUNDAY SHOULD SEE COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN. COULD SEE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CSRA CLOSERS TO THE FRONT. RANGED HIGH
TEMPERATURES FROM THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO MID 80S SOUTH. OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES GREATLY AMPLIFIED AS A RIDGE BUILDS
NEAR THE ATLANTIC COAST AND A DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS. THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO CONVERGE...ALTHOUGH
THE ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER.
SHALLOW WEDGE ERODING MONDAY AS LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS TO SOUTHEAST
AS SURFACE RIDGE TO THE NORTH MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OFF CAROLINA COAST IN RESPONSE TO DEEP TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS PLAINS. A STRONG COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE REGION
LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS MIDWEST UPPER TROUGH MOVES
EAST. CONFIDENCE HIGH ENOUGH FOR LIKELY POPS TUESDAY BASED ON
GFS ENSEMBLES. MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUGGEST SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL. DRY REST OF PERIOD BEHIND FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BEHIND
FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING.
SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE
SAVANNAH RIVER WITH MAIN COLD FRONT WELL TO THE NW ACROSS TN. WV
LOOP SHOWS A WEAK S/W MOVING WESTWARD TOWARD THE REGION TONIGHT.
THIS COMBINATION OF FEATURE HAS PRODUCED A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NRN CSRA...UPSTATE AND
CENTRAL MIDLANDS. THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EAST OF CAE/CUB THIS MORNING.
ISOLATED CONVECTION THROUGH THE DAY. STRATUS MOVING INTO THE CSRA
NEAR DNL/AGS...SO PERIOD OF IFR/MVFR THIS MORNING.
AFTER 15Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES.
WINDS WILL TURN MORE SOUTHERLY AROUND 6 KNOTS THROUGH THE DAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS IN VISIBILITY DUE TO
MORNING FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
504 AM EDT FRI OCT 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY INTO
SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT DEVELOPS NORTH OF THE REGION. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL SLIP SOUTH ACROSS THE MIDLANDS LATE SATURDAY. COOL
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY. A STRONG COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS. COOL TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW FOR THE END
OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ISOLATED EARLY MORNING CONVECTION CONTINUED ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL MIDLANDS AND PORTIONS OF THE CSRA. THE RAP MODEL HOLD
ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE MIDLANDS THIS MORNING IN AN AREA OF
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WITH K INDEX VALUES 30C TO 35C.
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY ZONAL OVER OUR REGION WITH A
BROAD TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS AND A RIDGE OVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL HOLD NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO VIRGINIA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA.
RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS RIDGE WILL BRING INCREASING
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. WE CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.
STILL EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S
TO AROUND 90 AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE MIDLANDS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT AND STALL NEAR OR JUST SOUTH
OF THE CSRA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL RIDGE
INTO THE CAROLINAS RESULTING IN A SHALLOW WEDGE/COLD AIR DAMMING
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
MOST OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR THE FRONT ON SATURDAY...SO
KEPT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MIDLANDS. GIVEN
WEST-SOUTHWEST 850MB FLOW...TEMPERATURES WILL BE STILL BE WARM ON
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S NORTH TO NEAR 90
SOUTH. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
WITH SHALLOW WEDGE/COLD AIR DAMMING ON SUNDAY SHOULD SEE COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN. COULD SEE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CSRA CLOSERS TO THE FRONT. RANGED HIGH
TEMPERATURES FROM THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO MID 80S SOUTH. OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES GREATLY AMPLIFIED AS A RIDGE BUILDS
NEAR THE ATLANTIC COAST AND A DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS. THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO CONVERGE...ALTHOUGH
THE ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER.
SHALLOW WEDGE ERODING MONDAY AS LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS TO SOUTHEAST
AS SURFACE RIDGE TO THE NORTH MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OFF CAROLINA COAST IN RESPONSE TO DEEP TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS PLAINS. A STRONG COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE REGION
LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS MIDWEST UPPER TROUGH MOVES
EAST. CONFIDENCE HIGH ENOUGH FOR LIKELY POPS TUESDAY BASED ON
GFS ENSEMBLES. MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUGGEST SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL. DRY REST OF PERIOD BEHIND FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BEHIND
FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THIS
MORNING.
SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE
SAVANNAH RIVER WITH MAIN COLD FRONT WELL TO THE NW ACROSS TN. WV
LOOP SHOWS A WEAK S/W MOVING WESTWARD TOWARD THE REGION TONIGHT.
THIS COMBINATION OF FEATURE HAS PRODUCED A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NRN CSRA...UPSTATE AND
CENTRAL MIDLANDS. THE ACTIVITY HAS GRADUALLY BEEN DIMINISHING OVER
THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. AT THIS TIME...WILL NOT MENTION ANY
PRECIPITATION AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES.
VWP SHOWS SE TO S WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS. THIS WILL BRING MOISTURE
UP THE SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY...ALONG WITH INTO THE EASTERN
MIDLANDS. THE MOISTURE IS VERY SHALLOW AS WINDS AROUND 3K FT ARE
FROM THE NORTH. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN WIDESPREAD FOG FORMATION ACROSS
THE AREA...BUT ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR FG CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT AT THE USUAL FOG PRONE SITES OF AGS/OGB. BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR VISIBILITIES MAY ALSO BE FOUND AROUND SUNRISE AT CAE/CUB/DNL.
AFTER 13Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES.
WINDS WILL TURN MORE SOUTHERLY AROUND 6 KNOTS THROUGH THE DAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS IN VISIBILITY DUE TO
MORNING FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
324 PM CDT FRI OCT 10 2014
.DISCUSSION...
323 PM CDT
SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE
SHORT TERM WILL FOCUS ON IMPACTS OF THE PERSISTENT NELY FLOW INTO
FAR NERN IL/IN AND THEN TRANSITION OVER TO TEMPERATURES AND FROST
CHANCES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF THE FOX
VALLEY AND NORTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...THE PERSISTENT NELY FLOW OFF
OF THE LAKE HAS KEPT LAKEFRONT LOCATIONS ON THE COOLER SIDE...WITH
TEMPS MAXING OUT IN THE MIDDLE 50S. COOLER AIR WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOWER 50S WITH LAKE SFC TEMPERATURES AROUND 60F HAS SET UP A
WEAKLY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY BOUNDARY LAYER...WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDINESS OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN TIP OF THE LAKE. A WEAK CONVERGENCE
LINE HAS FORMED...POINTING INTO COOK COUNTY...JUST NORTH OF DOWNTOWN
CHICAGO. THERE HAS BEEN ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO GENERATE SOME
SPRINKLES ALONG THE LINE...BUT NO WETTING PCPN IS LIKELY AND THE
LAKE EFFECT CLOUDINESS AND SPRINKLES SHOULD FADE WITH SUNSET.
FARTHER INLAND...UNDER A VEIL OF CI AND DIURNAL STRATOCU...
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN MORE MODERATE AND TEMPS SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...THE MAIN CORE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
JET STREAM SHOULD SETTLE A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH...ALLOWING THE VEIL
OF CI TO ALSO MOVE SOUTH AS THE DIURNAL STRATOCU DISSIPATES WITH
SUNSET. WITH THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH ASSOCIATED RIDGING EXTENDING SOUTHWEST TO
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND NORTHEAST THROUGH MAINE...WINDS SHOULD DROP
OFF TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. RADIATIVE COOLING SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET. UPSTREAM DEWPOINTS
CURRENTLY UNDER THE CENTER OF THE HIGH ARE IN THE UPPER 20S...WHILE
DEWPOINTS OVER NORTHERN IL/NWRN INDIANA ARE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
30S. AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SETTLES ACROSS THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...THERE SHOULD BE SOME MODIFICATION OF THE
AIRMASS...WITH DEWPOINTS LIKELY DROPPING INTO THE MIDDLE TO LOWER
30S. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES RADIATE DOWN INTO THE 30S
AS WELL...AWAY FROM THE CHICAGO AREA URBAN HEAT ISLAND. THE LOWEST
TEMPS SHOULD BE WEST OF THE FOX VALLEY AND NORTH OF THE I-80
CORRIDOR...SO WILL ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA FOR LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO DROP TO
32-35F. SOUTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR...TEMPS SHOULD ONLY DROP INTO
THE UPPER 30S...WHILE THE CHICAGO URBAN HEAT ISLAND AREA ONLY DROPS
TO AROUND 40F...SO WIDESPREAD FROST WILL BE UNLIKELY IN THESE AREAS.
LONGER TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH
SLIDES ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN TOMORROW...A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER WILL BE
IN PLACE. AMPLE SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO REACH
INTO THE LOWER 60S FOR INLAND LOCATIONS. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
COOLER ALONG THE LAKE WHERE LAKE BREEZE FORMATION SHOULD TURN WINDS
ON SHORE...DRAWING IN THE COOLER LAKE AIR. TEMPS ALONG THE
LAKEFRONT SHOULD ONCE AGAIN TOP OUT IN THE MIDDLE 50S. SUNDAY IS
SHAPING UP TO BE A TRANSITORY DAY WITH THE HIGH MOVING TO THE NERN
CONUS WHILE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH A
WEAK WARM FRONT DEVELOPING FROM THE LOW...EAST THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY. A RETURN FLOW OF MOISTER AIR WILL OVERRUN THE WARM
FRONT...LEADING TO INCREASING CLOUD COVER...WITH THE CHANCES FOR
SOME SHOWERS SPREADING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH
THE DAY. SINCE THE FORCING IS LIMITED TO THE LIFT NORTH OF THE WARM
FRONT...DO NOT EXPECT ANY HEAVY PCPN...AND THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR
MEASURABLE SHOULD BE DURG THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BY MONDAY...THE
MODELS REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON LIFT THE SFC LOW INTO
MISSOURI...WHILE THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH INTO NRN IL/IN. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW SOME EVEN WARMER AIR TO SPREAD INTO THE SERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA...WITH LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE ILLINOIS AND KANKAKEE
RIVERS REACHING THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70F. PCPN CHANCES WILL ALSO
BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE SFC LOW APPROACHES THE AREA AND WARM
SECTOR AIR SPREADS OVER MUCH OF THE CWA. THE SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE
TO DEEPEN AND MOVE INTO CNTRL OR NRN IL AS THE ASSOCIATED UPPER
LEVEL LOW LAGS SLIGHTLY BEHIND...IN NRN MO. THIS IS SHAPING UP TO
BE A RATHER DYNAMIC SYSTEM AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN INCREASES IN
AMPLITUDE WITH RIDGING OVER THE WEST AND EAST COASTS AND A DEEP
TROUGH CENTERED ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...AND BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...THE UPPER TROUGH TAKES ON A NEGATIVELY TILTED
ORIENTATION. INCREASE HEAT AND HUMIDITY...COMBINED WITH A SFC COLD
FRONT AND DEEP UPPER LOW SHOULD SET UP A PATTERN PRIMED FOR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH MONDAY AND POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO
MONDAY NIGHT...UNTIL THE COLD FRONT FINALLY PASSES TO THE EAST BY
TUESDAY MORNING. WHILE THE LONGER RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN RATHER
GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL PATTERN...THERE ARE TIMING
DIFFERENCES ON WHEN THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS ACROSS THE AREA AND
WHEN THE STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING SHOULD BE IN PLACE. THE NAM
IS A SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER OUTLIER AMONG THE VARIOUS MODEL
SOLUTIONS...WITH THE GFS A LITTLE SLOW AND THE GEM/ECMWF ABOUT
ANOTHER 6 HOURS SLOWER. HAVE GENERALLY TRENDED TOWARD THE SLOWER
SOLUTIONS GIVEN THE VERY HIGH AMPLITUDE TO THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
WHICH WOULD NOT BE AS CONDUCIVE TO A FAST/PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION.
SO...WILL CARRY CATEGORICAL POPS THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY AND INTO
MONDAY EVENING...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT. PCPN SHOULD BE SLOW TO MOVE OUT
OF THE AREA...PARTICULARLY IF THE ECMWF SOLUTION VERIFIES WHICH
LINGERS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE MIDWEST...LONGER THEN THE SOME OF THE
OTHER GUIDANCE. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME CONCERN FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY IF THE COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA AT A DIURNALLY FAVORABLE TIME. ALSO...HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY BE A CONCERN AS MOISTURE POOLS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
PWATS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY ARE FORECAST TO REACH 1.5 INCHES...WHICH
IS IN THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR PWATS IN MID OCTOBER. SO...IN
ADDITION TO THE CHANCES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL ALSO BE A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE DETERIORATES RAPIDLY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS THE MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY ON HOW THEY HANDLE THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW. THE ECMWF...ON ONE EXTREME DEVELOPS A DEEP CUT OFF
UPPER LOW THAT MEANDERS AROUND THE AREA FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH
IL INTO THURSDAY BEFORE LIFTING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY. ON
THE FASTER EXTREME...THE GFS STEADILY LIFTS THE UPPER SYSTEM OUT OF
THE AREA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO SERN CANADA BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES TO STEADILY PROGRESS TO THE EAST AS ANOTHER
STRONG SHORTWAVE DROPS INTO THE NRN PLAINS. GIVEN THE EXTREMES IN
THE GUIDANCE...HAVE LITTLE CONFIDENCE ON ANY PARTICULAR SOLUTION AND
HAVE MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD.
KREIN
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...
* NORTHEAST WIND AROUND 10KT TO DIMINISH LATER TODAY.
DZ
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER OVER THE DAKOTAS TO DOMINATE.
CENTER TO MOVE OVER SOUTHERN WI-NORTHERN IL BY MIDDAY SATURDAY.
VFR LOWER CLOUD DECK OVER LAND AND LAKE EFFECT MOVING INLAND OFF
LAKE MICHIGAN EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE GRADUALLY AS HIGHER LEVEL
CLOUD COVER THICKENS. AS A RESULT..NE WIND TO DIMINISH SLOWLY THEN DROP
OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. WIND TO STAY LIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AND
BECOME MORE EASTERLY.
DZ
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...
* HIGH.
DZ
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
* SATURDAY NIGHT...DRY/VFR. SOUTHEAST WINDS.
* SUNDAY...CHANCE OF PM SHRA. MVFR POSSIBLE. SOUTHEAST WINDS.
* MONDAY...PERIODS OF RA. CHANCE OF TSRA. IFR LIKELY. SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS.
* TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA.
* THURSDAY...DRY/VFR.
KJB
&&
.MARINE...
235 AM CDT
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FROM THE DAKOTAS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN A NORTHERLY WIND COMPONENT OVER THE LAKE
THROUGH THIS PERIOD. ALTHOUGH WIND SPEEDS LOOK TO EASE SOME ACROSS
THE NORTHERN END OF THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON...IT APPEARS THE WIND
SPEEDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED UP IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN END OF THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME
HIGHER WAVES UP AROUND 3 FT IN AND AROUND THE SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN
NEAR SHORES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT.
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST OVER THE LAKES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH THE WINDS EXPECTED TO SHIFT BACK OUT OF THE SOUTH 10
TO 20 KT BY SUNDAY. ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO WHAT APPEARS TO BE THE
LIKELY DEVELOPMENT OF A STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO AIM ON THE GREAT LAKES REGION
LATER MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK. THERE REMAINS A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF THIS DYNAMIC SYSTEM...MAINLY
IN TERMS OF THE SPEED OF THE STORM SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME THOUGH...IT
APPEARS THAT A PERIOD OF STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN END OF THE LAKE BY MONDAY EVENING...WITH WINDS POSSIBLY
OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE LAKE AS
THE SURFACE LOW MOVES SOMEWHERE NEAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS. UNCERTAINTY
REALLY INCREASES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE SPEED OF THIS
SYSTEM...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF THE SURFACE LOW ACTUALLY REMAINING
NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. THEREFORE CONFIDENCE WITH THE WIND FORECAST FROM
TUESDAY AND BEYOND IS MUCH LOWER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME RANGE.
PERIODS OF GALE FORCE WINDS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM
SYSTEM...SO STAY TUNED.
KJB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...FROST ADVISORY...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011-
ILZ012-ILZ019...3 AM SATURDAY TO 8 AM SATURDAY.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
312 PM CDT Fri Oct 10 2014
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT FRI OCT 10 2014
19z/2pm surface analysis shows stationary frontal boundary
extending from Oklahoma to Virginia. Numerous weak areas of low
pressure have been tracking along the boundary today, spreading
rain as far north as the I-70 corridor. Latest wave continues to
bring light rain to the southeast KILX CWA: however, radar mosaics
are showing the steady precipitation tapering off to scattered
showers upstream across Missouri. Based on radar timing tools,
have opted to carry just chance PoPs along/south of I-70 this
evening, as most concentrated area of showers will be well to the
east across southern Indiana/Ohio by 00z. Meanwhile, upper
short-wave noted on water vapor imagery over northern Minnesota
will continue to dive southeastward through the Great Lakes,
gradually giving the front a push southward. As a result, most
model guidance shifts the precip further south into the Ohio River
Valley overnight. Have therefore ended the PoPs across the SE
counties by midnight. While dry conditions are expected across the
board overnight, quite a bit of cloud cover will linger across the
southern half of the area. Even further north, latest visible
satellite imagery and forecast soundings suggest thick cirrus
clouds will persist through much of the evening before thinning
out later tonight. End result will be mostly cloudy skies through
the entire night across the central and southern zones, with
decreasing clouds across the north. Due to the clearing skies and
relatively light winds, low temperatures will settle into the
middle to upper 30s where skies clear, potentially leading to the
development of frost. Based on forecast hourly temps, have
included patchy frost along/north of a Canton to Chenoa line.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Friday)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT FRI OCT 10 2014
High pressure building into the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes will
provide pleasant fall conditions on Saturday, with a good deal of
sunshine, light winds, and afternoon high temperatures topping out
in the lower 60s. As the high slides off to the east, an
increasing S/SE return flow will begin to bring moisture back
northward Saturday night into Sunday. Due to the initially very
dry airmass, the moistening process will be slow. As a result,
have delayed the onset of precip chances to feature low chance
PoPs across only the far S/SE CWA after midnight Saturday night.
As a weak lead short-wave tracks through, scattered showers will
spread across the entire region on Sunday, although actual
rainfall amounts will remain quite light. Due to the increased
cloud cover and light showers, temperatures will remain a bit
cooler in the upper 50s across most areas.
Big changes begin to take place Sunday night as powerful 130kt 300mb
jet streak currently approaching the coast of Washington dives
southeastward and carves a significant trough over the central
CONUS. Surface cyclogenesis is expected to occur across the
Texas/Oklahoma panhandle Sunday evening, with the low deepening as
it tracks northeastward toward the southern Great Lakes by late
Monday. The exact speed/track of the low remains in question, as
the latest NAM has sped up the overall evolution. Disregarding
this seemingly fast outlier in an amplifying upper pattern, the
GFS/ECMWF consensus takes the low from the Texas panhandle Sunday
evening to west-central Illinois by Monday evening. Copious
amounts of Gulf moisture will stream northward ahead of this
system, with all models showing precipitable water values climbing
to around 1.50 on Monday, which is climatologically in the 99th
percentile for this time of year. Main disagreement is with the
degree of destabilization Monday afternoon/evening, with the NAM
being more bullish with its surface based CAPEs. Even following
the more conservative GFS, think enough instability will be
present within a highly sheared environment to produce strong to
potentially severe thunderstorms across part of the area late
Monday. Based on expected track of low, the E/SE CWA will be most
likely to break into the warm sector of the system and achieve
maximum destabilization. Will need to monitor future model runs
and convective outlooks from SPC to better assess the potential
severe weather threat. In any case, the high moisture content of
the atmosphere combined with strong upper dynamics will create
widespread showers/storms Monday into Monday evening. Best forcing
for storms will shift into Indiana overnight, leading to a
decrease in rain chances Monday night.
Still major discrepancies in the extended, as ECMWF insists on
cutting off an upper low over the Midwest Tuesday through
Thursday, while the GFS remains much more progressive. With
neither model deviating from its prior solution and no reasonable
consensus in sight, forecast confidence remains low next week. At
this time will maintain low chance PoPs for showers through
Tuesday night, but will go with a dry forecast Wednesday and
Thursday. This may need to be changed if upper wave amplifies
sufficiently over the Plains early next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT FRI OCT 10 2014
North edge of rain shield inching closer to KDEC/KCMI, but dry
northeast winds making any progress tough. Have maintained VCSH at
these sites for the next few hours, with the HRRR showing
diminishing rain chances after 22Z. Cloud bases remain high north
of the rain, and VFR conditions expected to prevail at all TAF
sites. Substantial clearing should start taking place from north
to south late tonight, as high pressure builds toward the Great
Lakes.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Geelhart
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
125 PM CDT FRI OCT 10 2014
.DISCUSSION...
404 AM CDT
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE REGION
LATE THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ESPECIALLY LATE MONDAY OF PERHAPS IN EXCESS OF
AN INCH OVER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS FROM 00Z DEPICTS A SPLIT UPPER FLOW REGIME ACROSS
THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM FLOW ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AROUND THE BASE OF A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER
EASTERN CANADA. SEVERAL SMALL AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES WERE
NOTED FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WHERE
THE SPLIT UPPER FLOW CONVERGES...WITH PRECIPITATION LIMITED TO
DOWNSTATE AREAS SOUTH OF THE CWA AND JUST SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
EXTENDING INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA. FARTHER
NORTH...A LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST WAS SUPPLYING DRY AND COOL WEATHER TO OUR
FORECAST AREA. THIS HIGH WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST SLOWLY
MOVES AWAY. NORTH-NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS WILL MAINTAIN COOL
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER GUIDANCE FAVORED
(NAM MET TODAY AND SATURDAY...GFS MAV TONIGHT). THIS YIELDS DAYTIME
TEMPS FROM THE MID-50S NEAR THE LAKE TO THE UPPER 50S FARTHER
INLAND. OVERNIGHT MINS TONIGHT EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOW-MID
30S NORTH AWAY FROM THE CITY...TO AROUND 40 SOUTH. LESS HIGH CLOUD
EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH AREAS OF FROST LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST IL AWAY FROM THE CORE OF THE CHICAGO
METRO AREA. SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT.
SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING AN
AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA LATER IN THE
WEEKEND AS 150 KT UPPER LEVEL JET OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC BUCKLES.
WITH AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE TAKING SHAPE...GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED SLOWER
AND THUS HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT WITH RESPECT TO SLOWING ARRIVAL OF CLOUD
COVER AND BETTER RAIN CHANCES. MOST OF THE MODELS INDICATE A WEAK
LEAD SHORT WAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING LONG WAVE
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH GENERALLY WEAK FORCING AND DRY
EAST-SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW IT LOOKS LIKE PRECIP POTENTIAL WILL
LARGELY HOLD OFF UNTIL THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRONGER
MERIDIONAL FLOW EVENTUALLY PULLS DEEP MOISTURE NORTHWARD AHEAD OF
THE DEVELOPING LONG WAVE MONDAY...WITH MORE IMPRESSIVE FORCING
DEVELOPING WITH STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS AND A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
WHICH LIFTS INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY EVENING. FAIRLY
IMPRESSIVE QPF AMOUNTS DEPICTED WITH PWATS INCREASING ABOVE 1.50
INCHES BY MONDAY NIGHT...WITH INDICATIONS OF AN AXIS OF UP TO 1
INCH RAINFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA WITH CONVECTIVELY-AIDED
RAINS IN WARM SECTOR...AS WELL AS A 1-3 INCH AXIS OVER PARTS OF
NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHWEST WI AND NORTHWEST IL WITH DEFORMATION BAND
RAIN.
WHILE EARLIER MODEL RUNS WERE MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH MOVING THE
TROUGH EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH MID-WEEK...THE 00Z ECMWF
AGGRESSIVELY CLOSES OFF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE AREA TUESDAY...AND
KEEPS IT OVER THE MIDWEST THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE IT FINALLY DRIFTS
OFF TO THE EAST. THE CANADIAN GEM...AND A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM
THE GEFS SIMILARLY CLOSE OFF THIS SYSTEM AND SLOW IT DOWN...THOUGH
NOT TO THE EXTENT OF THE ECMWF. SINCE THIS APPEARS TO BE A SOMEWHAT
REASONABLE TREND GIVEN THE BUILDING RIDGE DOWNSTREAM...HAVE KEPT
CHANCE POPS TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY.
WITH SURFACE LOW PROGGED TO COME RIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN IL AT THIS
POINT...FAIRLY LARGE TEMP CONTRAST FORECAST FOR MONDAY WITH HIGHS
AROUND 60 NORTHWEST AND APPROACHING 70 IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST. OTHER
THAN COOLER TEMPS (50S-AROUND 60) IN CLOUDS/SHOWERS BENEATH UPPER
LOW TUESDAY...NOT MUCH OF A COLD AIR SURGE ANTICIPATED BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM AT THIS TIME.
RATZER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* NORTHEAST WIND AROUND 10KT TO DIMINISH LATER TODAY.
DZ
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER OVER THE DAKOTAS TO DOMINATE.
CENTER TO MOVE OVER SOUTHERN WI-NORTHERN IL BY MIDDAY SATURDAY.
VFR LOWER CLOUD DECK OVER LAND AND LAKE EFFECT MOVING INLAND OFF
LAKE MICHIGAN EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE GRADUALLY AS HIGHER LEVEL
CLOUD COVER THICKENS. AS A RESULT..NE WIND TO DIMINISH SLOWLY THEN DROP
OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. WIND TO STAY LIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AND
BECOME MORE EASTERLY.
DZ
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* HIGH.
DZ
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
* SATURDAY NIGHT...DRY/VFR. SOUTHEAST WINDS.
* SUNDAY...CHANCE OF PM SHRA. MVFR POSSIBLE. SOUTHEAST WINDS.
* MONDAY...PERIODS OF RA. CHANCE OF TSRA. IFR LIKELY. SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS.
* TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA.
* THURSDAY...DRY/VFR.
KJB
&&
.MARINE...
235 AM CDT
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FROM THE DAKOTAS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN A NORTHERLY WIND COMPONENT OVER THE LAKE
THROUGH THIS PERIOD. ALTHOUGH WIND SPEEDS LOOK TO EASE SOME ACROSS
THE NORTHERN END OF THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON...IT APPEARS THE WIND
SPEEDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED UP IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN END OF THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME
HIGHER WAVES UP AROUND 3 FT IN AND AROUND THE SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN
NEAR SHORES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT.
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST OVER THE LAKES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH THE WINDS EXPECTED TO SHIFT BACK OUT OF THE SOUTH 10
TO 20 KT BY SUNDAY. ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO WHAT APPEARS TO BE THE
LIKELY DEVELOPMENT OF A STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO AIM ON THE GREAT LAKES REGION
LATER MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK. THERE REMAINS A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF THIS DYNAMIC SYSTEM...MAINLY
IN TERMS OF THE SPEED OF THE STORM SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME THOUGH...IT
APPEARS THAT A PERIOD OF STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN END OF THE LAKE BY MONDAY EVENING...WITH WINDS POSSIBLY
OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE LAKE AS
THE SURFACE LOW MOVES SOMEWHERE NEAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS. UNCERTAINTY
REALLY INCREASES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE SPEED OF THIS
SYSTEM...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF THE SURFACE LOW ACTUALLY REMAINING
NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. THEREFORE CONFIDENCE WITH THE WIND FORECAST FROM
TUESDAY AND BEYOND IS MUCH LOWER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME RANGE.
PERIODS OF GALE FORCE WINDS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM
SYSTEM...SO STAY TUNED.
KJB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1225 PM CDT Fri Oct 10 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 945 AM CDT FRI OCT 10 2014
Showers starting to increase again along and south of I-70 as the
next wing of precipitation spreads northeast from Missouri. Latest
HRRR continues to delineate a rather sharp northern edge of the
precipitation shield, as areas along and north of I-72 have quite a
bit of dry air present below 750 mb per our morning sounding and
forecast soundings from the RAP model. In fact, the northern parts
of the CWA are seeing some sunshine filtering through what is
mainly a cirrus layer in that area. While the far north is still
in the 40s, temperatures should rise quicker there with more
sunshine. Coolest conditions expected along the I-70 corridor with
mainly mid 50s. Only some minor adjustments needed to the existing
zones/grids. Only significant item of note was to remove the
thunder in the far southeast.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT FRI OCT 10 2014
Forecast challenge through today remains the northern extent of the
precip shield, currently extending from near Springfield east towards
Champaign. For the most part, the steadier rains have been occurring
further south closer to a stalled frontal boundary over northern
Arkansas east through central Kentucky. This boundary may edge a bit
further north as shortwave energy, currently over the Southern
Plains, shifts thru the Ohio River Valley later today. Some of the
short term models suggest a slight northward push to the rain shield
as this upper wave shifts to our south later this morning into this
afternoon. However, not seeing enough evidence off models to adjust
much further north than what we have been advertising for the past
day or so, mainly along and south of Jacksonville to Springfield to
Champaign line. PoPs will progressively increase as you head south
towards the I-70 corridor through this afternoon, while north towards
I74, little if any rain is expected thru tonight.
Forecast soundings continue to show an increase in drying at the mid
levels of the atmosphere from north to south as the day wears on so
we will probably see warmer temps over parts of the north, with
readings approaching 60 degrees in a few locations. Further south,
where the thicker cloud cover and precip will be, afternoon highs
may struggle to get out of the middle 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT FRI OCT 10 2014
Have chances of showers gradually lowering over southeast IL during
tonight and Saturday as frontal boundary shifts southward into AR
and TN, and 1028 mb Canadian high pressure over eastern ND settles SE
across the Midwest and into the western Great Lakes region. Clouds
decrease over northern counties and expect lows in the mid to upper
30s NW of the IL river with patchy frost late tonight, more
widespread frost further NW toward IA border closer to high pressure
ridge and lighter winds. Lows 40-45F SE of the IL river. Cool highs
in the upper 50s and lower 60s Saturday with more sunshine northern
counties. Just a slight chance of showers over southeast IL south of
I-70 where more clouds prevail.
00Z forecast models have trended slower with returning moisture into
central IL Sat night and Sunday as frontal boundary south of IL
begins lifting back north. Have central IL dry yet Sat evening with
20-30% pops in southeast IL. Then have low chances of showers
spreading NE across central IL during overnight Sat night into
Sunday. Isolated thunderstorms mainly stay SE of CWA through Sunday.
Highs Sunday in upper 50s and lower 60s over central IL and low to
mid 60s in southeast IL. Better chances of showers arriving Sunday
night with isolated thunderstorms in southeast IL as short waves
from the SW beginning moving into IL and interacting with increasing
moisture from the gulf.
Extended models continue to show a strong full latitude upper level
trof moving east into the MS river valley by 12Z Tue and developing
a cutoff low near IL by middle of next week. Strong surface low
pressure to eject NE from the southern plains into the Great Lakes
region early next week and bring showers and chance of thunderstorms
Mon-Mon night. Heavy rains likely over eastern/SE IL where 1-2
inches with locally higher amounts near the Wabash river. Also
severe thunderstorms could also be an increasing risk over southeast
IL Monday afternoon/evening. Continue chances of showers Tue and
added 20-30% chances of showers Tue night and Wed as models
(especially the ECMWF) show cutoff low near IL keeping it cloudier
and cooler.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT FRI OCT 10 2014
North edge of rain shield inching closer to KDEC/KCMI, but dry
northeast winds making any progress tough. Have maintained VCSH at
these sites for the next few hours, with the HRRR showing
diminishing rain chances after 22Z. Cloud bases remain high north
of the rain, and VFR conditions expected to prevail at all TAF
sites. Substantial clearing should start taking place from north
to south late tonight, as high pressure builds toward the Great
Lakes.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Geelhart
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1108 AM CDT FRI OCT 10 2014
.DISCUSSION...
404 AM CDT
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE REGION
LATE THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ESPECIALLY LATE MONDAY OF PERHAPS IN EXCESS OF
AN INCH OVER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS FROM 00Z DEPICTS A SPLIT UPPER FLOW REGIME ACROSS
THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM FLOW ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AROUND THE BASE OF A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER
EASTERN CANADA. SEVERAL SMALL AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES WERE
NOTED FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WHERE
THE SPLIT UPPER FLOW CONVERGES...WITH PRECIPITATION LIMITED TO
DOWNSTATE AREAS SOUTH OF THE CWA AND JUST SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
EXTENDING INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA. FARTHER
NORTH...A LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST WAS SUPPLYING DRY AND COOL WEATHER TO OUR
FORECAST AREA. THIS HIGH WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST SLOWLY
MOVES AWAY. NORTH-NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS WILL MAINTAIN COOL
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER GUIDANCE FAVORED
(NAM MET TODAY AND SATURDAY...GFS MAV TONIGHT). THIS YIELDS DAYTIME
TEMPS FROM THE MID-50S NEAR THE LAKE TO THE UPPER 50S FARTHER
INLAND. OVERNIGHT MINS TONIGHT EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOW-MID
30S NORTH AWAY FROM THE CITY...TO AROUND 40 SOUTH. LESS HIGH CLOUD
EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH AREAS OF FROST LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST IL AWAY FROM THE CORE OF THE CHICAGO
METRO AREA. SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT.
SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING AN
AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA LATER IN THE
WEEKEND AS 150 KT UPPER LEVEL JET OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC BUCKLES.
WITH AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE TAKING SHAPE...GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED SLOWER
AND THUS HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT WITH RESPECT TO SLOWING ARRIVAL OF CLOUD
COVER AND BETTER RAIN CHANCES. MOST OF THE MODELS INDICATE A WEAK
LEAD SHORT WAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING LONG WAVE
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH GENERALLY WEAK FORCING AND DRY
EAST-SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW IT LOOKS LIKE PRECIP POTENTIAL WILL
LARGELY HOLD OFF UNTIL THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRONGER
MERIDIONAL FLOW EVENTUALLY PULLS DEEP MOISTURE NORTHWARD AHEAD OF
THE DEVELOPING LONG WAVE MONDAY...WITH MORE IMPRESSIVE FORCING
DEVELOPING WITH STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS AND A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
WHICH LIFTS INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY EVENING. FAIRLY
IMPRESSIVE QPF AMOUNTS DEPICTED WITH PWATS INCREASING ABOVE 1.50
INCHES BY MONDAY NIGHT...WITH INDICATIONS OF AN AXIS OF UP TO 1
INCH RAINFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA WITH CONVECTIVELY-AIDED
RAINS IN WARM SECTOR...AS WELL AS A 1-3 INCH AXIS OVER PARTS OF
NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHWEST WI AND NORTHWEST IL WITH DEFORMATION BAND
RAIN.
WHILE EARLIER MODEL RUNS WERE MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH MOVING THE
TROUGH EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH MID-WEEK...THE 00Z ECMWF
AGGRESSIVELY CLOSES OFF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE AREA TUESDAY...AND
KEEPS IT OVER THE MIDWEST THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE IT FINALLY DRIFTS
OFF TO THE EAST. THE CANADIAN GEM...AND A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM
THE GEFS SIMILARLY CLOSE OFF THIS SYSTEM AND SLOW IT DOWN...THOUGH
NOT TO THE EXTENT OF THE ECMWF. SINCE THIS APPEARS TO BE A SOMEWHAT
REASONABLE TREND GIVEN THE BUILDING RIDGE DOWNSTREAM...HAVE KEPT
CHANCE POPS TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY.
WITH SURFACE LOW PROGGED TO COME RIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN IL AT THIS
POINT...FAIRLY LARGE TEMP CONTRAST FORECAST FOR MONDAY WITH HIGHS
AROUND 60 NORTHWEST AND APPROACHING 70 IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST. OTHER
THAN COOLER TEMPS (50S-AROUND 60) IN CLOUDS/SHOWERS BENEATH UPPER
LOW TUESDAY...NOT MUCH OF A COLD AIR SURGE ANTICIPATED BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM AT THIS TIME.
RATZER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...
* NORTHEAST WIND AROUND 10KT TO DIMINISH LATER TODAY.
DZ
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 14Z...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS TO BUILD EAST-SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH TODAY. NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS AT THE
TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME PREVAILING NORTHEAST BY AFTERNOON.
VISIBLE SATELLITE INDICATES A FEW NARROW PLUMES OF LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDS THAT EXTEND TO SHORELINE OF CHICAGO. SATELLITE ALSO
INDICATES THIN CIRRUS DECK OVERHEAD WILL THICKEN. WITH DRY AIR IN
PLACE CLOSER TO THE SURFACE EXPECT ANY CEILINGS TO BE VERY LIMITED
IN COVERAGE. THE RESULTING LACK OF MIXING SHOULD ALSO LIMIT WIND
SPEEDS OFF THE LAKE. TREND IS FOR WINDS TO ABATE CLOSER TO SUNSET.
DZ
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...
* HIGH.
DZ
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
* SATURDAY NIGHT...DRY/VFR. SOUTHEAST WINDS.
* SUNDAY...CHANCE OF PM SHRA. MVFR POSSIBLE. SOUTHEAST WINDS.
* MONDAY...PERIODS OF RA. CHANCE OF TSRA. IFR LIKELY. SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS.
* TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA.
* THURSDAY...DRY/VFR.
KJB
&&
.MARINE...
235 AM CDT
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FROM THE DAKOTAS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN A NORTHERLY WIND COMPONENT OVER THE LAKE
THROUGH THIS PERIOD. ALTHOUGH WIND SPEEDS LOOK TO EASE SOME ACROSS
THE NORTHERN END OF THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON...IT APPEARS THE WIND
SPEEDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED UP IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN END OF THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME
HIGHER WAVES UP AROUND 3 FT IN AND AROUND THE SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN
NEAR SHORES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT.
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST OVER THE LAKES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH THE WINDS EXPECTED TO SHIFT BACK OUT OF THE SOUTH 10
TO 20 KT BY SUNDAY. ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO WHAT APPEARS TO BE THE
LIKELY DEVELOPMENT OF A STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO AIM ON THE GREAT LAKES REGION
LATER MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK. THERE REMAINS A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF THIS DYNAMIC SYSTEM...MAINLY
IN TERMS OF THE SPEED OF THE STORM SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME THOUGH...IT
APPEARS THAT A PERIOD OF STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN END OF THE LAKE BY MONDAY EVENING...WITH WINDS POSSIBLY
OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE LAKE AS
THE SURFACE LOW MOVES SOMEWHERE NEAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS. UNCERTAINTY
REALLY INCREASES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE SPEED OF THIS
SYSTEM...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF THE SURFACE LOW ACTUALLY REMAINING
NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. THEREFORE CONFIDENCE WITH THE WIND FORECAST FROM
TUESDAY AND BEYOND IS MUCH LOWER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME RANGE.
PERIODS OF GALE FORCE WINDS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM
SYSTEM...SO STAY TUNED.
KJB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
947 AM CDT Fri Oct 10 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 945 AM CDT FRI OCT 10 2014
Showers starting to increase again along and south of I-70 as the
next wing of precipitation spreads northeast from Missouri. Latest
HRRR continues to delineate a rather sharp northern edge of the
precipitation shield, as areas along and north of I-72 have quite a
bit of dry air present below 750 mb per our morning sounding and
forecast soundings from the RAP model. In fact, the northern parts
of the CWA are seeing some sunshine filtering through what is
mainly a cirrus layer in that area. While the far north is still
in the 40s, temperatures should rise quicker there with more
sunshine. Coolest conditions expected along the I-70 corridor with
mainly mid 50s. Only some minor adjustments needed to the existing
zones/grids. Only significant item of note was to remove the
thunder in the far southeast.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT FRI OCT 10 2014
Forecast challenge through today remains the northern extent of the
precip shield, currently extending from near Springfield east towards
Champaign. For the most part, the steadier rains have been occurring
further south closer to a stalled frontal boundary over northern
Arkansas east through central Kentucky. This boundary may edge a bit
further north as shortwave energy, currently over the Southern
Plains, shifts thru the Ohio River Valley later today. Some of the
short term models suggest a slight northward push to the rain shield
as this upper wave shifts to our south later this morning into this
afternoon. However, not seeing enough evidence off models to adjust
much further north than what we have been advertising for the past
day or so, mainly along and south of Jacksonville to Springfield to
Champaign line. PoPs will progressively increase as you head south
towards the I-70 corridor through this afternoon, while north towards
I74, little if any rain is expected thru tonight.
Forecast soundings continue to show an increase in drying at the mid
levels of the atmosphere from north to south as the day wears on so
we will probably see warmer temps over parts of the north, with
readings approaching 60 degrees in a few locations. Further south,
where the thicker cloud cover and precip will be, afternoon highs
may struggle to get out of the middle 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT FRI OCT 10 2014
Have chances of showers gradually lowering over southeast IL during
tonight and Saturday as frontal boundary shifts southward into AR
and TN, and 1028 mb Canadian high pressure over eastern ND settles SE
across the Midwest and into the western Great Lakes region. Clouds
decrease over northern counties and expect lows in the mid to upper
30s NW of the IL river with patchy frost late tonight, more
widespread frost further NW toward IA border closer to high pressure
ridge and lighter winds. Lows 40-45F SE of the IL river. Cool highs
in the upper 50s and lower 60s Saturday with more sunshine northern
counties. Just a slight chance of showers over southeast IL south of
I-70 where more clouds prevail.
00Z forecast models have trended slower with returning moisture into
central IL Sat night and Sunday as frontal boundary south of IL
begins lifting back north. Have central IL dry yet Sat evening with
20-30% pops in southeast IL. Then have low chances of showers
spreading NE across central IL during overnight Sat night into
Sunday. Isolated thunderstorms mainly stay SE of CWA through Sunday.
Highs Sunday in upper 50s and lower 60s over central IL and low to
mid 60s in southeast IL. Better chances of showers arriving Sunday
night with isolated thunderstorms in southeast IL as short waves
from the SW beginning moving into IL and interacting with increasing
moisture from the gulf.
Extended models continue to show a strong full latitude upper level
trof moving east into the MS river valley by 12Z Tue and developing
a cutoff low near IL by middle of next week. Strong surface low
pressure to eject NE from the southern plains into the Great Lakes
region early next week and bring showers and chance of thunderstorms
Mon-Mon night. Heavy rains likely over eastern/SE IL where 1-2
inches with locally higher amounts near the Wabash river. Also
severe thunderstorms could also be an increasing risk over southeast
IL Monday afternoon/evening. Continue chances of showers Tue and
added 20-30% chances of showers Tue night and Wed as models
(especially the ECMWF) show cutoff low near IL keeping it cloudier
and cooler.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT FRI OCT 10 2014
VFR conditions are expected thru this forecast period. Band of
showers mainly south of I-72 early this morning and expecting
the measurable rainfall to occur even further south today.
Our northern TAF locations (KPIA, KBMI) will remain dry while
our southern TAF sites, other than some very light showers or
sprinkles early this morning and again after 19z, will remain dry.
The threat for rain will shift well south of the TAF sites after
23z as high pressure settles southeast into the region tonight.
Surface winds will remain out of the northeast at 10 to 15 kts
today, and then diminish to 5 to 10 kts tonight from the northeast.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Smith
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
424 AM EDT FRI OCT 10 2014
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 331 AM EDT FRI OCT 10 2014
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA CAN EXPECT WET CONDITIONS
FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT AT TIMES
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...EVENTUALLY SPREADING FARTHER INTO
CENTRAL INDIANA LATE IN THE WEEKEND. IN THE EXTENDED...A RATHER
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 331 AM EDT FRI OCT 10 2014
THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM WILL BE PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STATIONARY ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY FOR THE DURATION OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD...WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES THE GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH WILL INHIBIT PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
CENTRAL INDIANA...SO WILL ONLY CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE POPS
OVER THOSE COUNTIES. TO THE SOUTH...THE AFOREMENTIONED STATIONARY
BOUNDARY WILL BE MORE PREVALENT...SO CARRIED LIKELY AND DEFINITE
POPS OVER THAT AREA. CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS WIDESPREAD SHOWER
ACTIVITY WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS THROUGH KENTUCKY.
TEMPS...MODELS ARE HANDLING THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER WELL
TODAY...THUS WENT WITH A BLEND. THIS PUTS PROJECTED HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 331 AM EDT FRI OCT 10 2014
THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE PRECIP CHANCES.
MOST OF CENTRAL INDIANA WILL FALL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD AS STATIONARY BOUNDARY SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH. THIS WILL
RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS OVER MOST NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL INDIANA STARTING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW
NIGHT...AND LOW PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
STATIONARY FRONT OVER TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL SLOWLY START TO SHIFT
BACK NORTH THOUGH LATE IN THE WEEKEND. MODELS HAVE COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT IN REGARD TO TIMING OF MOISTURE BACK INTO CENTRAL
INDIANA...ALL LEANING TOWARD SUNDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...WILL GO
WITH CHANCE POPS ON SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL
INDIANA...AND LIKELY OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPS...WENT WITH A MOS BLEND FOR DURATION OF SHORT TERM PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 331 AM EDT FRI OCT 10 2014
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL IMPACT THE OHIO VALLEY FOR THE EARLY PART OF
THE WORK WEEK AS AN AMPLIFYING NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WITH
AN ASSOCIATED STRONG SURFACE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY
MORNING...TRACKING NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY. HEAVY
RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER ARE GROWING CONCERNS AS
LOW LEVEL WINDS MAXIMIZE AT 70KTS MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY.
THE STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ADVECT GULF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES APPROACHING THE CLIMATOLOGICAL 99TH
PERCENTILE FOR OCTOBER AT 1.75 INCHES LATE MONDAY NIGHT. 120+KT
UPPER JET WILL PROMOTE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND FURTHER ENHANCE
CONVECTION AND HEAVY RAIN. WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL
POPS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING AS COLDER AIR WRAPS IN BEHIND THE
LOW AS IT TRACKS INTO LOWER MICHIGAN.
ECMWF BREAKS AWAY FROM THE MODEL CONSENSUS FROM LATE TUESDAY
ON...CUTTING OFF THE UPPER ENERGY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WITH THE LOW
SPINNING AIMLESSLY OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. WHILE A COUPLE OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HINT AT THE UPPER
LOW BEING SLOWER TO DEPART...THEY ARE NOT NEARLY AS DEEP OR HOLD THE
ENERGY AS FAR WEST AS THE ECMWF. THE OTHER OPERATIONAL MODELS LIFT
THE UPPER LOW OUT INTO NEW ENGLAND BY THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
AND RIDGING ALOFT ESTABLISHING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS CONSENSUS
IS THE PREFERRED SOLUTION WITH DRY SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 100900Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 424 AM EDT FRI OCT 10 2014
SHOWERS BEGINNING TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT WAVE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL PROGRESS EAST INTO THE
REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND ADJUSTED TIMING OF ARRIVAL
ACCORDINGLY. BACKED OFF ON MVFR AND LOWER CEILINGS AT ALL BUT KBMG
BASED ON OBS AND RAP RH PROGS. STILL EXPECT LOWER CEILINGS AFTER
DAYBREAK AT ALL BUT KLAF.
06Z DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
ON/OFF LIGHT RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE AT THE SITES THROUGH THROUGH EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR NOW...AND MFVR LIKELY BETWEEN
07-10Z. THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION IS KLAF AS THEY WILL BE ON THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION. AS STATED WILL SEE MVFR
VISIBILITIES LATER THIS MORNING BUT THESE SHOULD IMPROVE LATER THIS
MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. KBMG COULD SEE
CONDITIONS DROP TO IFR EARLY THIS MORNING BASED ON TIME HEIGHTS
SECTIONS WITH RAIN AND LOW CEILINGS. IFR IS POSSIBLE AT OTHER SITES
BUT PROBABILITY DECREASES HEADING NORTH SO WILL KEEP MVFR GOING AT
KHUF AND KIND LATER THIS MORNING. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT AT 3-8 KTS
THROUGH THE PERIOD GENERALLY OUT OF THE ENE...PICKING UP SLIGHTLY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...SMF/RYAN
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
1257 PM CDT Fri Oct 10 2014
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 304 AM CDT FRI OCT 10 2014
Upper shortwave trough axis this morning was centered over
northern New Mexico. An embedded shortwave trough and residual
moisture associated with this system has contributed to scattered
showers and thunderstorms earlier this evening. Another round of
light to moderate showers continues to build east over central and
western Kansas at this hour as dynamic lift increases over western
KS. Ongoing heaviest convection is progged to remain near the warm
front across western OK towards the KS and OK border through
today.
Across northeast KS this morning, short term guidance follows radar
trends in spreading light to moderate showers into the region within
the next few hours. Based on the track of the upper trough, highest
probabilities for heavier rain showers through late afternoon
reside near the Interstate 70 corridor and points southward. Rainfall
amounts today for this area range from a tenth to just over an inch.
Locally higher amounts are possible. Latest RAP analysis shows very
weak mid level instability across these locations where isolated
embedded thunder is possible. Further north over north central KS,
less than a tenth of an inch is expected as dry air associated with
a surface high over South Dakota gradually invades south. This dry and
stable air will dissipate showers from north to south through the
afternoon effectively coming to an end this evening.
Overcast cloud cover lingers during the afternoon with clearing
occurring over north central areas by early evening. Highs reflect
where heavier showers and denser stratus are expected with readings
in the lower 50s. Scattered to broken cloud cover over east central
KS this evening will hold lows into the 40s. Light winds and clear
skies for north central areas could drop lows to the mid and upper
30s. Patchy frost may be possible in low lying areas where cooler
temps exist.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 304 AM CDT FRI OCT 10 2014
For Saturday, models are in reasonable agreement that the mid level
energy will shear out and move east while dry air builds in from the
north. With this in mind, have removed the small POPs across east
central and far eastern KS. Am not all that excited about precip
chances for Saturday night either as models so the better synoptic
forcing remaining west. However there are signs of some low level
moisture return with the low level jet Saturday night. At this point
models forecast soundings do not indicate much if any vertical
motion with the low level jet focused mainly across MO. And there
really isn`t any elevated instability to speak of. Therefore
continued with a dry forecast, but may need to watch later model
runs for maybe some light precip if the low level jet ends up a
little further west. Clouds are most likely to hang in across east
central KS during the day Saturday while northern KS sees mostly
sunny skies. Think this cloud cover over east central KS may keep
afternoon highs in the mid 50s while sunshine helps warm temps to
around 60 elsewhere. Lows Saturday night should be a little warmer
with increasing cloud cover and a southerly wind.
Precip continues to look likely by Sunday afternoon through Monday
morning. Again there is good agreement among the various model
solutions for an amplifying mid level trough to move across the
plains with cyclogenesis developing over OK. Increasing moisture
ahead of this wave along with increasing PVA and lift from a frontal
boundary should lead to another round of showers and thunderstorms.
While there is not a great deal of instability with this system,
model forecast soundings do show mid level lapse rates steepening
Sunday afternoon and Sunday night. Because of this will include a
mention of thunder. Model timing suggests precip will be most likely
Sunday night as the front moves through. With models in good
agreement, have trended POPs across east central KS up to 80
percent. Precip chances should gradually diminish through the day
Monday from west to east as the system progresses east. Highs Sunday
should be a little warmer due to low level warm air advection.
However did not go quite as warm as the warm air advection or MOS
guidance would suggest thinking increasing clouds could inhibit the
warming trend. Also Mondays highs are forecast to be in the lower
and mid 60s. However if the precip and clouds clear out sooner in
the day, there does not appear to be much cold air with this system
and temps could be 5 degrees or so warmer.
Have kept a dry dry forecast for Monday night through Thursday with
a warming trend in temps. There seems to be considerably more
uncertainty in the synoptic patter for next week and run to run
inconsistencies from the ECMWF do not help much. At this point, any
cutoff mid level low is expected to remain east of the forecast
area. If there is no cutoff, then the stronger shortwave depicted in
the GFS looks to stay just to the north of the forecast area on
Thursday. Therefore it appears dry weather is a more likely outcome
and with no intrusions of cold air, temps should warm back into the
70s by Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1255 PM CDT FRI OCT 10 2014
Expect VFR conditions with periods of rain showers through the
afternoon hours. Late tonight the cloud cover will begin to clear.
Saturday afternoon, a few CU may form during the afternoon hours
with bases above 3,000 feet.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...Gargan
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
708 AM CDT Fri Oct 10 2014
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 304 AM CDT FRI OCT 10 2014
Upper shortwave trough axis this morning was centered over
northern New Mexico. An embedded shortwave trough and residual
moisture associated with this system has contributed to scattered
showers and thunderstorms earlier this evening. Another round of
light to moderate showers continues to build east over central and
western Kansas at this hour as dynamic lift increases over western
KS. Ongoing heaviest convection is progged to remain near the warm
front across western OK towards the KS and OK border through
today.
Across northeast KS this morning, short term guidance follows radar
trends in spreading light to moderate showers into the region within
the next few hours. Based on the track of the upper trough, highest
probabilities for heavier rain showers through late afternoon
reside near the Interstate 70 corridor and points southward. Rainfall
amounts today for this area range from a tenth to just over an inch.
Locally higher amounts are possible. Latest RAP analysis shows very
weak mid level instability across these locations where isolated
embedded thunder is possible. Further north over north central KS,
less than a tenth of an inch is expected as dry air associated with
a surface high over South Dakota gradually invades south. This dry and
stable air will dissipate showers from north to south through the
afternoon effectively coming to an end this evening.
Overcast cloud cover lingers during the afternoon with clearing
occurring over north central areas by early evening. Highs reflect
where heavier showers and denser stratus are expected with readings
in the lower 50s. Scattered to broken cloud cover over east central
KS this evening will hold lows into the 40s. Light winds and clear
skies for north central areas could drop lows to the mid and upper
30s. Patchy frost may be possible in low lying areas where cooler
temps exist.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 304 AM CDT FRI OCT 10 2014
For Saturday, models are in reasonable agreement that the mid level
energy will shear out and move east while dry air builds in from the
north. With this in mind, have removed the small POPs across east
central and far eastern KS. Am not all that excited about precip
chances for Saturday night either as models so the better synoptic
forcing remaining west. However there are signs of some low level
moisture return with the low level jet Saturday night. At this point
models forecast soundings do not indicate much if any vertical
motion with the low level jet focused mainly across MO. And there
really isn`t any elevated instability to speak of. Therefore
continued with a dry forecast, but may need to watch later model
runs for maybe some light precip if the low level jet ends up a
little further west. Clouds are most likely to hang in across east
central KS during the day Saturday while northern KS sees mostly
sunny skies. Think this cloud cover over east central KS may keep
afternoon highs in the mid 50s while sunshine helps warm temps to
around 60 elsewhere. Lows Saturday night should be a little warmer
with increasing cloud cover and a southerly wind.
Precip continues to look likely by Sunday afternoon through Monday
morning. Again there is good agreement among the various model
solutions for an amplifying mid level trough to move across the
plains with cyclogenesis developing over OK. Increasing moisture
ahead of this wave along with increasing PVA and lift from a frontal
boundary should lead to another round of showers and thunderstorms.
While there is not a great deal of instability with this system,
model forecast soundings do show mid level lapse rates steepening
Sunday afternoon and Sunday night. Because of this will include a
mention of thunder. Model timing suggests precip will be most likely
Sunday night as the front moves through. With models in good
agreement, have trended POPs across east central KS up to 80
percent. Precip chances should gradually diminish through the day
Monday from west to east as the system progresses east. Highs Sunday
should be a little warmer due to low level warm air advection.
However did not go quite as warm as the warm air advection or MOS
guidance would suggest thinking increasing clouds could inhibit the
warming trend. Also Mondays highs are forecast to be in the lower
and mid 60s. However if the precip and clouds clear out sooner in
the day, there does not appear to be much cold air with this system
and temps could be 5 degrees or so warmer.
Have kept a dry dry forecast for Monday night through Thursday with
a warming trend in temps. There seems to be considerably more
uncertainty in the synoptic patter for next week and run to run
inconsistencies from the ECMWF do not help much. At this point, any
cutoff mid level low is expected to remain east of the forecast
area. If there is no cutoff, then the stronger shortwave depicted in
the GFS looks to stay just to the north of the forecast area on
Thursday. Therefore it appears dry weather is a more likely outcome
and with no intrusions of cold air, temps should warm back into the
70s by Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 640 AM CDT FRI OCT 10 2014
Light showers and MVFR cigs persist at KTOP/KFOE/KMHK. Short term
guidance improves cigs to VFR aft 14Z as drier air over northern
KS advects southward. Will monitor trends but believe IFR cigs
reside south of terminals where heavier rainfall is expected.
Upper wave passes through near 00Z while profile soundings dry out
at the low levels. Will mention VCSH aft 21Z for any lingering
activity.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...Bowen
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
304 AM CDT Fri Oct 10 2014
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 304 AM CDT FRI OCT 10 2014
Upper shortwave trough axis this morning was centered over
northern New Mexico. An embedded shortwave trough and residual
moisture associated with this system has contributed to scattered
showers and thunderstorms earlier this evening. Another round of
light to moderate showers continues to build east over central and
western Kansas at this hour as dynamic lift increases over western
KS. Ongoing heaviest convection is progged to remain near the warm
front across western OK towards the KS and OK border through
today.
Across northeast KS this morning, short term guidance follows radar
trends in spreading light to moderate showers into the region within
the next few hours. Based on the track of the upper trough, highest
probabilities for heavier rain showers through late afternoon
reside near the Interstate 70 corridor and points southward. Rainfall
amounts today for this area range from a tenth to just over an inch.
Locally higher amounts are possible. Latest RAP analysis shows very
weak mid level instability across these locations where isolated
embedded thunder is possible. Further north over north central KS,
less than a tenth of an inch is expected as dry air associated with
a surface high over South Dakota gradually invades south. This dry and
stable air will dissipate showers from north to south through the
afternoon effectively coming to an end this evening.
Overcast cloud cover lingers during the afternoon with clearing
occurring over north central areas by early evening. Highs reflect
where heavier showers and denser stratus are expected with readings
in the lower 50s. Scattered to broken cloud cover over east central
KS this evening will hold lows into the 40s. Light winds and clear
skies for north central areas could drop lows to the mid and upper
30s. Patchy frost may be possible in low lying areas where cooler
temps exist.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 304 AM CDT FRI OCT 10 2014
For Saturday, models are in reasonable agreement that the mid level
energy will shear out and move east while dry air builds in from the
north. With this in mind, have removed the small POPs across east
central and far eastern KS. Am not all that excited about precip
chances for Saturday night either as models so the better synoptic
forcing remaining west. However there are signs of some low level
moisture return with the low level jet Saturday night. At this point
models forecast soundings do not indicate much if any vertical
motion with the low level jet focused mainly across MO. And there
really isn`t any elevated instability to speak of. Therefore
continued with a dry forecast, but may need to watch later model
runs for maybe some light precip if the low level jet ends up a
little further west. Clouds are most likely to hang in across east
central KS during the day Saturday while northern KS sees mostly
sunny skies. Think this cloud cover over east central KS may keep
afternoon highs in the mid 50s while sunshine helps warm temps to
around 60 elsewhere. Lows Saturday night should be a little warmer
with increasing cloud cover and a southerly wind.
Precip continues to look likely by Sunday afternoon through Monday
morning. Again there is good agreement among the various model
solutions for an amplifying mid level trough to move across the
plains with cyclogenesis developing over OK. Increasing moisture
ahead of this wave along with increasing PVA and lift from a frontal
boundary should lead to another round of showers and thunderstorms.
While there is not a great deal of instability with this system,
model forecast soundings do show mid level lapse rates steepening
Sunday afternoon and Sunday night. Because of this will include a
mention of thunder. Model timing suggests precip will be most likely
Sunday night as the front moves through. With models in good
agreement, have trended POPs across east central KS up to 80
percent. Precip chances should gradually diminish through the day
Monday from west to east as the system progresses east. Highs Sunday
should be a little warmer due to low level warm air advection.
However did not go quite as warm as the warm air advection or MOS
guidance would suggest thinking increasing clouds could inhibit the
warming trend. Also Mondays highs are forecast to be in the lower
and mid 60s. However if the precip and clouds clear out sooner in
the day, there does not appear to be much cold air with this system
and temps could be 5 degrees or so warmer.
Have kept a dry dry forecast for Monday night through Thursday with
a warming trend in temps. There seems to be considerably more
uncertainty in the synoptic patter for next week and run to run
inconsistencies from the ECMWF do not help much. At this point, any
cutoff mid level low is expected to remain east of the forecast
area. If there is no cutoff, then the stronger shortwave depicted in
the GFS looks to stay just to the north of the forecast area on
Thursday. Therefore it appears dry weather is a more likely outcome
and with no intrusions of cold air, temps should warm back into the
70s by Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1138 PM CDT THU OCT 9 2014
TAF sites remain IFR through the overnight hours with prevailing
light rain and low cigs. Cigs begin to lift to MVFR after sunrise
and to VFR by the afternoon. Could see occasional heavier rain
shower but heaviest remains south. Winds NE through the forecast.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...67
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
642 PM EDT FRI OCT 10 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 642 PM EDT FRI OCT 10 2014
UPDATED TO REMOVE THUNDER AS BETTER INSTABILITY HAS SHIFTED SOUTH OF
OUR AREA. THUNDER CHANCES LOOK MINIMAL THROUGH TOMORROW GIVEN
INSTABILITY IS BOTTLED UP SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THUS...PLAN
TO REMOVE ANY THUNDER CHANCES TOMORROW AS WELL. MEANWHILE...FOG HAS
DEVELOPED QUICKLY ON THE RIDGES THIS EVENING AND HAS BECOME LOCALLY
DENSE. PLAN TO ADD FOG INTO THE FORECAST TONIGHT AND INCLUDE IT IN
THE HWO AS IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE DENSE IN PLACES THROUGH DAYBREAK.
SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW DENSE THE FOG WILL END UP IN THE
VALLEYS...BUT IF THE FOG CONTINUES TO EXPAND...MAY NEED TO LOOK AT
THE NEED FOR A DENSE FOG ADVISORY LATER ON. IN FACT... THE RAIN OUT
THERE NOW SHOULD BE MOVING ON THROUGH WITH A LULL EXPECTED AFTER
MIDNIGHT. AS THE BOUNDARY FINALLY SHIFTS SOUTHWARD. THIS WOULD PUT
ALL OF THE AREA ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DENSE FOG. UPDATED FORECAST TO REFINE THE POPS THROUGH THE
REST OF THE NIGHT...FOCUSING THE BETTER POPS IN THE NORTH...WITH
LESSER POPS IN THE SOUTH AS THE SOUTHERN AREAS GET DRY SLOTTED.
FORECAST UPDATE HAS BEEN SENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT FRI OCT 10 2014
19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT LYING JUST NORTH OF
THE TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY BORDER. THIS FRONT IS SERVING AS FOCUSING
MECHANISM FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF
THE STATE THUS FAR THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD CHANGE AS ANOTHER MID
LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND INDUCES A SFC WAVE TO MOVE
ALONG THE FRONT BRINGING RENEWED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE CWA THIS
EVENING AND INTO THE NIGHT. IN THE MEANTIME...JUST A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS ARE FOUND THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY WITH SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY.
THERE HAS BEEN SOME THINNING AND CLEAR PATCHES NOTED IN THE VISIBLE
SATELLITE LOOP OVER EAST KENTUCKY AND THIS SHOULD HELP BUILD SOME
EXTRA INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.
THE THICKEST CLOUDS AND BEING NORTH OF THE FRONT HAS KEPT READINGS
LOCKED IN THE UPPER 50S IN THE FAR NORTH WHILE SOME 70 DEGREE REPORTS
HAVE BEEN NOTED IN THE FAR SOUTH. DEWPOINTS...MEANWHILE...ARE IN THE
LOW AND MID 60S SOUTH AND A BIT LOWER NORTH WHILE LIGHT WINDS ARE
FROM THE NORTHEAST NORTH OF JKL AND FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE SOUTH.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS THEY
ALL DEPICT FAST AND NEAR ZONAL FLOW MOVING OVER KENTUCKY INTO WHICH
A SHEARING MID LEVEL WAVE WILL PERIODICALLY RELEASE ITS ENERGY. A
HEALTHY BATCH IS ON ITS WAY HERE FOR THIS EVENING AND IS RESPONSIBLE
FOR THE CONVECTION CURRENTLY BUILDING OVER TENNESSEE THAT IS POISED
TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO OUR AREA BY EVENING. THE REMNANTS OF THE PLAINS
TROUGH FALLS APART OVER THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT. AS THIS ALL
HAPPENS...PLENTY OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL BE FOUND OVER THE
REGION OWING TO A STRONG 300 MB JET PASSING BY TO THE NORTHEAST. HAVE
GONE WITH A BLEND OF THE MODELS WITH A LEAN TOWARD THE ECMWF
POSITIONS FOR THE FRONT...BUT FAVORED THE NAM12 QPF TOTALS...JUST
TRANSLATED A BIT SOUTH. ALSO INCORPORATED THE LATEST HRRR IN THE NEAR
TERM GRIDS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A WET NIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO KICK UP DURING THE EVENING AND FADE OUT
LATE IN THE NIGHT. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE NEXT
WAVE MOVES OUT BY DAWN SATURDAY AS THE NEXT ONE STARTS TO HEAD THIS
WAY FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BUT TAKING A BIT FURTHER SOUTH
TRACK. IT IS THESE TRACK SHIFTS THAT SHOULD SPARE ANY PARTICULAR PART
OF THE CWA A HIGHER FLOOD RISK DESPITE THE ROUNDS OF RAIN. HOWEVER...
SHOULD THE HEAVIER CELLS TRAIN OVER A SPOT LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THE RAIN WILL ACCUMULATE ENOUGH THAT THE DITCHES AND CREEKS
WILL CERTAINLY BE FULL AT TIMES AND THE LARGER RIVERS WILL RESPOND
AND START TO FILL UP AS WELL. FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT THE
TRACK LOOKS TO FAVOR THE SOUTH AND LIKELY BE A LITTLE LESS ROBUST...
THOUGH EACH WAVE THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY...COULD HAVE PLACES THAT GET
HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ADDRESSED IN AN
ESFJKL. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL WITH A SMALL DIURNAL RANGE.
ONCE AGAIN USED THE CONSSHORT AS A STARTING POINT AGAIN FOR THE
T/TD/WIND GRIDS THROUGH THE FIRST 18-24 HOURS BEFORE GOING WITH THE
SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. DID NOT SEE MANY TARGETS OF OPPORTUNITY FOR
TEMPERATURE IMPROVEMENTS IN THIS ENVIRONMENT SO ONLY MINOR TWEAKS
WERE MADE TO THE MAX AND MIN T GRIDS. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP MOST
SIMILAR TO THE WETTER MAV NUMBERS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT FRI OCT 10 2014
NOT MUCH AGREEMENT IN TIMING OF MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURES THROUGH THE
EXTENDED...BUT BETTER AGREEMENT WITH ACTUAL PATTERN. HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE GREAT PLAINS
EARLY IN THE PERIOD BEFORE FORMING A CUT OFF LOW SOMEWHERE OVER THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...OR MIDWEST BY TUESDAY. FROM THERE FORWARD
THE 12Z GFS IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE TAKING THIS LARGE SYSTEM INTO
THE NORTHEAST BY LATE WEDNESDAY. THE 12Z CANADIAN APPEARS TO BE
COMPROMISE OF THE GFS AND ECMWF. THE 0Z ECMWF...SLOWEST OF ALL THE
OPERATIONAL MODELS ROTATES THE LOW THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AT
A TURTLES PACE BEFORE LIFTING THE SYSTEM NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY REGION LATE IN THE WEEK. NATIONAL GUIDANCE QUESTIONS HOW THE
ECMWF CAN KEEP THE CUT OFF LOW OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY FOR SO
LONG WITHOUT BETTER SUPPORT FROM THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
THAT WOULD PRODUCE THE SPLIT FLOW NECESSARY FOR ITS SOLUTION...AND
IN GENERAL THEY ARE NOT SEEING THOSE TYPES OF SIGNALS. THEREFORE
WILL TEND TO STICK WITH A BLENDED SOLUTION THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
AT THE SURFACE A QUASI STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN
THE REGION LIFTING NORTH AND SOUTH WITH EACH PASSING SFC WAVE AND/OR
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THIS BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH OF OUR AREA LATE
SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM STRENGTHENS TO OUR
WEST. THERE IS MUCH LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST THEREAFTER BUT
CONSENSUS APPROACH SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE...COLD AIR MASS INSTABILITY TYPE SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE
MID WEEK TIME FRAME.
AS FAR AS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...STRONG LLJ MAY DEVELOP
OVER OUR AREA...AHEAD OF THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY AS H850 WIND SPEEDS INCREASE TO BETWEEN 50 AND 70 KTS. THESE
STRONGER WINDS COULD MIX DOWN CREATING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG
STORMS AS AN OCCLUDED FRONT MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA EITHER
LATE MONDAY OR TUESDAY. THIS THREAT WILL INCREASE SHOULD WE SEE
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SUNLIGHT MONDAY. HOWEVER...THERE IS TOO MUCH
DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS TO HAVE ANY CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND
OTHER DETAILS AT THIS POINT. STRONGER...GUSTY WINDS SHOULD BE
EXPECTED BEHIND THE OCCLUDED FRONT AS WELL...WHICH MAY BE REALIZED
AS EARLY AS TUESDAY. ANOTHER HIGHLIGHT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. WHILE FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE ABOVE NORMAL
PWATS...TIMING OF DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WOULD PROVIDE
SOME DECENT BREAKS...RECOVERY TIME BETWEEN SUCCESSIVE BOUTS OF RAIN.
THOUGHTS ARE THAT TRAINING OF CELLS MAY CREATE A MUCH GREATER THREAT
OF HEAVY RAIN...ESPECIALLY OVER SATURATED GROUND. IN ADDITION...
TOTAL RAINFALL WILL BE SPREAD OUT OVER AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME.
THEREFORE FLASH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS GREAT A THREAT AS
IT MIGHT NORMALLY BE. HOWEVER SOME MINOR FLOODING OF LARGER CREEKS
AND STREAMS...AND EVENTUALLY AREA RIVERS...WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
LONG HAUL. ATTM THE CURRENT HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK HANDLES OUR CURRENT
SITUATION WELL.
IN GENERAL SENSIBLE WEATHER LOOKS QUITE UNSTABLE THROUGH TUESDAY...
BUT GRADUALLY IMPROVES AND DRIES OUT THEREAFTER WITH ONLY SOME
INSTABILITY SHOWERS TO DEAL WITH WED-THU. STUCK TO A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS. WITH SUCH A STRONG SOUTHERLY JET AND FETCH OF
AIR INTO THE REGION MONDAY NUDGED TEMPS UP CLOSER TO THE WARMER GFS
GUIDANCE VERSUS THE BLEND. LOOKING FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...THEN NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD. SHOULD THE ECMWF EVENTUALLY TURN OUT TO BE THE BEST
SOLUTION...TUESDAY/S HIGH AND POSSIBLY TUESDAY NIGHTS LOW TEMPS
WOULD COME IN WARMER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 205 PM EDT FRI OCT 10 2014
FOLLOWING THE CURRENT LULL...IN A FEW HOURS THE CONVECTION WILL AGAIN
BE WIDESPREAD OVER THE AREA AND LIKELY LAST THROUGH THE EVENING.
DESPITE THE CURRENT LULL...A VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT HAS RESULTED IN
LOW CIGS ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY. LATER...WITH THE MORE CONCENTRATED
AREAS OF PCPN...VIS WILL FALL TO IFR OR LOWER FOR A TIME. THE RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO LAST OFF AND ON THROUGHOUT THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT...
HOWEVER SOMETIME AFTER 04Z TONIGHT...EXPECT THE CIGS...THAT MANAGED
TO LIFT A BIT AS THE CONVECTION MOVES BACK IN...TO FALL BACK TO 500
FEET OR LOWER ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITH THE HILLTOPS OBSCURED IN
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE GENERALLY 5 TO
10 KTS WITH A SWITCH TO THE NORTH ANTICIPATED TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...RAY
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
400 PM EDT FRI OCT 10 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT FRI OCT 10 2014
19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT LYING JUST NORTH OF
THE TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY BORDER. THIS FRONT IS SERVING AS FOCUSING
MECHANISM FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF
THE STATE THUS FAR THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD CHANGE AS ANOTHER MID
LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND INDUCES A SFC WAVE TO MOVE
ALONG THE FRONT BRINGING RENEWED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE CWA THIS
EVENING AND INTO THE NIGHT. IN THE MEANTIME...JUST A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS ARE FOUND THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY WITH SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY.
THERE HAS BEEN SOME THINNING AND CLEAR PATCHES NOTED IN THE VISIBLE
SATELLITE LOOP OVER EAST KENTUCKY AND THIS SHOULD HELP BUILD SOME
EXTRA INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.
THE THICKEST CLOUDS AND BEING NORTH OF THE FRONT HAS KEPT READINGS
LOCKED IN THE UPPER 50S IN THE FAR NORTH WHILE SOME 70 DEGREE REPORTS
HAVE BEEN NOTED IN THE FAR SOUTH. DEWPOINTS...MEANWHILE...ARE IN THE
LOW AND MID 60S SOUTH AND A BIT LOWER NORTH WHILE LIGHT WINDS ARE
FROM THE NORTHEAST NORTH OF JKL AND FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE SOUTH.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS THEY
ALL DEPICT FAST AND NEAR ZONAL FLOW MOVING OVER KENTUCKY INTO WHICH
A SHEARING MID LEVEL WAVE WILL PERIODICALLY RELEASE ITS ENERGY. A
HEALTHY BATCH IS ON ITS WAY HERE FOR THIS EVENING AND IS RESPONSIBLE
FOR THE CONVECTION CURRENTLY BUILDING OVER TENNESSEE THAT IS POISED
TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO OUR AREA BY EVENING. THE REMNANTS OF THE PLAINS
TROUGH FALLS APART OVER THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT. AS THIS ALL
HAPPENS...PLENTY OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL BE FOUND OVER THE
REGION OWING TO A STRONG 300 MB JET PASSING BY TO THE NORTHEAST. HAVE
GONE WITH A BLEND OF THE MODELS WITH A LEAN TOWARD THE ECMWF
POSITIONS FOR THE FRONT...BUT FAVORED THE NAM12 QPF TOTALS...JUST
TRANSLATED A BIT SOUTH. ALSO INCORPORATED THE LATEST HRRR IN THE NEAR
TERM GRIDS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A WET NIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO KICK UP DURING THE EVENING AND FADE OUT
LATE IN THE NIGHT. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE NEXT
WAVE MOVES OUT BY DAWN SATURDAY AS THE NEXT ONE STARTS TO HEAD THIS
WAY FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BUT TAKING A BIT FURTHER SOUTH
TRACK. IT IS THESE TRACK SHIFTS THAT SHOULD SPARE ANY PARTICULAR PART
OF THE CWA A HIGHER FLOOD RISK DESPITE THE ROUNDS OF RAIN. HOWEVER...
SHOULD THE HEAVIER CELLS TRAIN OVER A SPOT LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THE RAIN WILL ACCUMULATE ENOUGH THAT THE DITCHES AND CREEKS
WILL CERTAINLY BE FULL AT TIMES AND THE LARGER RIVERS WILL RESPOND
AND START TO FILL UP AS WELL. FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT THE
TRACK LOOKS TO FAVOR THE SOUTH AND LIKELY BE A LITTLE LESS ROBUST...
THOUGH EACH WAVE THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY...COULD HAVE PLACES THAT GET
HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ADDRESSED IN AN
ESFJKL. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL WITH A SMALL DIURNAL RANGE.
ONCE AGAIN USED THE CONSSHORT AS A STARTING POINT AGAIN FOR THE
T/TD/WIND GRIDS THROUGH THE FIRST 18-24 HOURS BEFORE GOING WITH THE
SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. DID NOT SEE MANY TARGETS OF OPPORTUNITY FOR
TEMPERATURE IMPROVEMENTS IN THIS ENVIRONMENT SO ONLY MINOR TWEAKS
WERE MADE TO THE MAX AND MIN T GRIDS. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP MOST
SIMILAR TO THE WETTER MAV NUMBERS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT FRI OCT 10 2014
NOT MUCH AGREEMENT IN TIMING OF MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURES THROUGH THE
EXTENDED...BUT BETTER AGREEMENT WITH ACTUAL PATTERN. HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE GREAT PLAINS
EARLY IN THE PERIOD BEFORE FORMING A CUT OFF LOW SOMEWHERE OVER THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...OR MIDWEST BY TUESDAY. FROM THERE FORWARD
THE 12Z GFS IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE TAKING THIS LARGE SYSTEM INTO
THE NORTHEAST BY LATE WEDNESDAY. THE 12Z CANADIAN APPEARS TO BE
COMPROMISE OF THE GFS AND ECMWF. THE 0Z ECMWF...SLOWEST OF ALL THE
OPERATIONAL MODELS ROTATES THE LOW THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AT
A TURTLES PACE BEFORE LIFTING THE SYSTEM NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY REGION LATE IN THE WEEK. NATIONAL GUIDANCE QUESTIONS HOW THE
ECMWF CAN KEEP THE CUT OFF LOW OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY FOR SO
LONG WITHOUT BETTER SUPPORT FROM THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
THAT WOULD PRODUCE THE SPLIT FLOW NECESSARY FOR ITS SOLUTION...AND
IN GENERAL THEY ARE NOT SEEING THOSE TYPES OF SIGNALS. THEREFORE
WILL TEND TO STICK WITH A BLENDED SOLUTION THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
AT THE SURFACE A QUASI STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN
THE REGION LIFTING NORTH AND SOUTH WITH EACH PASSING SFC WAVE AND/OR
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THIS BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH OF OUR AREA LATE
SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM STRENGTHENS TO OUR
WEST. THERE IS MUCH LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST THEREAFTER BUT
CONSENSUS APPROACH SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE...COLD AIR MASS INSTABILITY TYPE SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE
MID WEEK TIME FRAME.
AS FAR AS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...STRONG LLJ MAY DEVELOP
OVER OUR AREA...AHEAD OF THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY AS H850 WIND SPEEDS INCREASE TO BETWEEN 50 AND 70 KTS. THESE
STRONGER WINDS COULD MIX DOWN CREATING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG
STORMS AS AN OCCLUDED FRONT MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA EITHER
LATE MONDAY OR TUESDAY. THIS THREAT WILL INCREASE SHOULD WE SEE
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SUNLIGHT MONDAY. HOWEVER...THERE IS TOO MUCH
DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS TO HAVE ANY CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND
OTHER DETAILS AT THIS POINT. STRONGER...GUSTY WINDS SHOULD BE
EXPECTED BEHIND THE OCCLUDED FRONT AS WELL...WHICH MAY BE REALIZED
AS EARLY AS TUESDAY. ANOTHER HIGHLIGHT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. WHILE FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE ABOVE NORMAL
PWATS...TIMING OF DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WOULD PROVIDE
SOME DECENT BREAKS...RECOVERY TIME BETWEEN SUCCESSIVE BOUTS OF RAIN.
THOUGHTS ARE THAT TRAINING OF CELLS MAY CREATE A MUCH GREATER THREAT
OF HEAVY RAIN...ESPECIALLY OVER SATURATED GROUND. IN ADDITION...
TOTAL RAINFALL WILL BE SPREAD OUT OVER AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME.
THEREFORE FLASH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS GREAT A THREAT AS
IT MIGHT NORMALLY BE. HOWEVER SOME MINOR FLOODING OF LARGER CREEKS
AND STREAMS...AND EVENTUALLY AREA RIVERS...WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
LONG HAUL. ATTM THE CURRENT HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK HANDLES OUR CURRENT
SITUATION WELL.
IN GENERAL SENSIBLE WEATHER LOOKS QUITE UNSTABLE THROUGH TUESDAY...
BUT GRADUALLY IMPROVES AND DRIES OUT THEREAFTER WITH ONLY SOME
INSTABILITY SHOWERS TO DEAL WITH WED-THU. STUCK TO A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS. WITH SUCH A STRONG SOUTHERLY JET AND FETCH OF
AIR INTO THE REGION MONDAY NUDGED TEMPS UP CLOSER TO THE WARMER GFS
GUIDANCE VERSUS THE BLEND. LOOKING FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...THEN NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD. SHOULD THE ECMWF EVENTUALLY TURN OUT TO BE THE BEST
SOLUTION...TUESDAY/S HIGH AND POSSIBLY TUESDAY NIGHTS LOW TEMPS
WOULD COME IN WARMER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 205 PM EDT FRI OCT 10 2014
FOLLOWING THE CURRENT LULL...IN A FEW HOURS THE CONVECTION WILL AGAIN
BE WIDESPREAD OVER THE AREA AND LIKELY LAST THROUGH THE EVENING.
DESPITE THE CURRENT LULL...A VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT HAS RESULTED IN
LOW CIGS ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY. LATER...WITH THE MORE CONCENTRATED
AREAS OF PCPN...VIS WILL FALL TO IFR OR LOWER FOR A TIME. THE RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO LAST OFF AND ON THROUGHOUT THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT...
HOWEVER SOMETIME AFTER 04Z TONIGHT...EXPECT THE CIGS...THAT MANAGED
TO LIFT A BIT AS THE CONVECTION MOVES BACK IN...TO FALL BACK TO 500
FEET OR LOWER ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITH THE HILLTOPS OBSCURED IN
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE GENERALLY 5 TO
10 KTS WITH A SWITCH TO THE NORTH ANTICIPATED TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...RAY
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
205 PM EDT FRI OCT 10 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT FRI OCT 10 2014
THE EARLY AFTERNOON LULL IS IN THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS IS POISED TO COME TO AN END AS DEVELOPMENT IS TAKING PLACE
OVER WESTERN TENNESSEE AND PROGGED BY THE HRRR AND NAM12 TO RIDE INTO
OUR AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON. HAVE ADJUSTED THE FORECAST TO BETTER
REFLECT THIS ALONG WITH TWEAKING TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS PER THE LATEST
OBS AND TRENDS. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1050 AM EDT FRI OCT 10 2014
14Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHED TO THE EAST THROUGH
SOUTHERN KENTUCKY AND INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN CROSSING EAST KENTUCKY
WITH AN INITIAL WAVE PULLING OUT OF THE AREA TO THE EAST LATE THIS
MORNING. A RENEWAL IN THE CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED LATER THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER BATCH OF
MID LEVEL ENERGY PASSING OVER THE STATE. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH
THINNING TAKES PLACE IN THE CLOUD COVER WE MAY PICK UP ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE DIVERGENCE ALOFT...FROM THE
RIGHT REAR ENTRANCE OF A 120 KT 300 MB JET STREAK...TO GENERATE SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS
FROM THESE STORMS...SHOULD THEY DEVELOP. IN THE MEANTIME...QUITE THE
BAROCLINIC SET UP EXISTS ACROSS THE STALLED BOUNDARY WITH TEMPS AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S NORTH TO THE LOW AND MIDDLE 60S SOUTH IN
KENTUCKY...AND IN THE LOWER 70S FOR PARTS OF TENNESSEE. THE COLDER
SIDE OF THE FRONT WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
THUNDER BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE ARRIVES SO HAVE DROPPED THEM TO ISOLATED
T WHILE TO THE SOUTH THE THREAT REMAINS. GENERALLY 1 TO 1.5 INCHES
OF RAIN HAS FALLEN OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...WHILE THE NORTH HAS SEEN A FRACTION OF THOSE
TOTALS. ACCORDINGLY...OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES WILL HAVE THE BETTER
THREAT FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING WITH THIS NEXT BATCH OF RAIN AND WILL
NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL FLOOD ISSUES. THE GRIDS
HAVE BEEN UPDATED AND WILL BE SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS
SHORTLY ALONG WITH AN UPDATED ZFP TO REMOVE THE MORNING FOG WORDING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 820 AM EDT FRI OCT 10 2014
DID A QUICK UPDATED TO THE FORECAST TO INCORPORATE THE LATEST
CONSSHORT GUIDANCE AND TWEAK QPF MORE TO THE SOUTH AS THE MAIN
PCPN AXIS HAS SHIFTED SOUTH AND WILL LIKELY STAY THAT WAY THROUGH AT
LEAST THE MORNING. ALSO ADDED HEAVY RAIN ATTRIBUTES TO THE MORE
CONCENTRATED AREAS OF CONVECTION. ALSO FINE TUNED T/TD GRIDS THROUGH
THE MORNING PER THE LATEST OBS...TRENDS...AND CONSSHORT GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT FRI OCT 10 2014
A QUASI STATIONARY FRONT WILL BISECT EASTERN KENTUCKY FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING THE DAY TODAY. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY TO THE NORTH
AND THEN TONIGHT WILL START MOVING BACK TO THE SOUTH. THE BOTTOM LINE
IS THAT WE ARE IN STORE FOR SOME WET UNSETTLED WEATHER. NORTH THE
FRONT WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER
NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY. THE BIGGEST CONCERN FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS IS THE RAINFALL. SINCE THIS FRONT IS MOVING
SLOWLY...IT IS POSSIBLE TO DROP A LOT OF RAIN IN A SHORT TIME AND
THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING WITH STREAMS...DITCHES
AND LOW WATER CROSSINGS RUNNING FULL.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT FRI OCT 10 2014
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED BEGINS IN
TRANSITION AS ZONAL FLOW OVER THE OH VALLEY TRANSITIONS INTO AS MORE
AMPLIFIED PATTERN. THE EXTENDED BEGINS WITH A FEATURED WAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY ON SUNDAY AND INTO THE OH VALLEY AND
QUICKLY LIFTS NORTHEAST. THEN THE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN BEGINS WITH
A 120 KNOT JET STREAK MOVING OVER THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES AND
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS A TROUGH DIGS INTO THIS AREA. THIS
ENHANCES THE LONG WAVE TROUGH AS A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE MS
RIVER VALLEY AND MOVES EAST INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY
AND FINALLY NORTHEAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY THE END OF THE
EXTENDED. WHILE NOT IN THE DETAIL OF THE LOWER LEVELS...THE EURO AND
GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL LONGWAVE PATTERN.
GETTING INTO SOME DETAILS IN THE LOWER LEVELS...A REMNANT STATIONARY
BOUNDARY WILL SERVE AS A POINT FOR SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
MS VALLEY AS THE MENTIONED FIRST SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
ON SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDED ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF
PRECIP THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY AS THIS SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE AREA. THE NEXT INFLUENCE WILL BE THE INCREASED
AMPLIFICATION IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AS THE JET STREAK MOVES
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS DEEPENING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. WITH
THIS...STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND MOVE EAST INTO THE OH VALLEY BY TUESDAY. THIS LOOKS TO BE
A BETTER SHOT OF MOISTURE AND INCREASED PRECIP. THE FORECAST
CHALLENGE WILL BE WITH THIS POTENTIALLY POTENT FRONT AND THE
ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE AND IF THIS SCENARIO WILL POSE A
FLOOD THREAT IN THE EXTENDED...ESPECIALLY WITH HOW MUCH RAIN LOOKS
TO FALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE BEST CHANCE OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE THE DEVELOPING STRONG FRONT ON TUESDAY AS WELL AND WILL STAY WITH
THE SUPER BLEND SOLUTION ON POPS FOR THIS. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
THE FLOOD THREAT IN THE HWO.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 205 PM EDT FRI OCT 10 2014
FOLLOWING THE CURRENT LULL...IN A FEW HOURS THE CONVECTION WILL AGAIN
BE WIDESPREAD OVER THE AREA AND LIKELY LAST THROUGH THE EVENING.
DESPITE THE CURRENT LULL...A VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT HAS RESULTED IN
LOW CIGS ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY. LATER...WITH THE MORE CONCENTRATED
AREAS OF PCPN...VIS WILL FALL TO IFR OR LOWER FOR A TIME. THE RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO LAST OFF AND ON THROUGHOUT THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT...
HOWEVER SOMETIME AFTER 04Z TONIGHT...EXPECT THE CIGS...THAT MANAGED
TO LIFT A BIT AS THE CONVECTION MOVES BACK IN...TO FALL BACK TO 500
FEET OR LOWER ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITH THE HILLTOPS OBSCURED IN
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE GENERALLY 5 TO
10 KTS WITH A SWITCH TO THE NORTH ANTICIPATED TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
140 AM EDT FRI OCT 10 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1047 PM EDT THU OCT 9 2014
CONVECTION WITH LIGHTNING HAS DEVELOPED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KY AND
MIDDLE TN AND APPEARS HEADED TO THE SW PART OF THE CWA NEAR LAKE
CUMBERLAND OVER THE NEXT TWO TO THREE HOURS. POPS HAVE BEEN
RECONFIGURED BASED ON THIS TREND. ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER AN
APPROACHING WARM FRONT SHOULD BRING ADDITIONAL CONVECTION LATER ON
TONIGHT AS CONVECTION FURTHER TO THE WEST OVER SOUTH IN/IL AND
WESTERN KY IS EXPECTED TO SURVIVE EAST INTO THE AREA PER RECENT MODEL
GUIDANCE. HOURLY TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON
RECENT TRENDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 835 PM EDT THU OCT 9 2014
HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BASED ON RECENT TRENDS. SATELLITE AND
RADAR TRENDS AS WELL AS RECENT HRRR RUNS POINT TOWARD THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS BEING DRY OR MOSTLY DRY ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH
SIGNIFICANT BREAKS IN THE LOW AND MID CLOUDS AT TIMES. HOURLY POPS
WILL BE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY AS WE PLAN TO LOWER POPS OVER THE NEXT 3
TO 5 HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT THU OCT 9 2014
19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A FRONT STALLING OUT THROUGH NORTHERN
KENTUCKY FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS FRONT/S ARRIVAL HAS ALREADY
SHUNTED AN ORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS AND LEADING EDGE THUNDERSTORMS
EAST OUT OF THE CWA. JUST PATCHY LIGHT SHOWERS WERE LEFT BEHIND
ACROSS CWA. THE RAIN AND CLOUDS HAVE KEPT THE TEMPERATURES
SUPPRESSED SO FAR TODAY AND ARE JUST NOW GETTING UP INTO THE MID 60S
MOST PLACES...WHILE MANY SPOTS ARE STILL IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOW
60S. 70S ARE NOT FAR AWAY...THOUGH...AND SHOULD SURGE IN DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS TO WARM UP EAST KENTUCKY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THEY
ALL DEPICT AN OPEN WAVE MOVING FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS FEEDING PACKETS OF ENERGY EAST OVER KENTUCKY AND
ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS IN FAIRLY FAST FLOW BETWEEN A RIDGE
OVER THE GULF AND BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN
CANADA. THE CLUSTERS OF MID LEVEL ENERGY WILL ROLL OVERHEAD THROUGH
AT LEAST SATURDAY MORNING AS THE WESTERN TROUGH APPROACHES. THE
ENERGY STREAM WILL ALSO BRING WITH IT SUSTAINED UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE FOR MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM YIELDING DECENT LIFT. DID
AGAIN FAVOR THE NAM12/HRRR FOR THE NEAR TERM GRIDS AND THE
ECMWF/NAM12 THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A STALLED BOUNDARY LYING THROUGH
NORTHERN KENTUCKY AND SLOWLY SINKING SOUTH DURING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. FAIRLY HIGH PW AIR ACCOMPANIES THE FRONT AND WILL SUSTAIN
PERIODS OF SHOWERS...OCCASIONALLY HEAVY...ALONG WITH THUNDERSTORMS.
EVEN SO...THESE WILL OCCUR OVER A DRAWN OUT PERIOD OF TIME KEEPING
THINGS QUITE WET BUT ALSO LIMITING THE FLOOD POTENTIAL FROM WHAT IT
COULD HAVE BEEN WITH A MORE ROBUST SET UP. REGARDLESS...WILL BE
ISSUING AN ESFJKL TO HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF MODERATE
SHOWERS ALONG WITH A SMALL THREAT FOR MOSTLY LOCALIZED AND NUISANCE
FLOODING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY...GENERALLY COOLER NORTH AND WARMER
SOUTH WITH A SMALL DIURNAL RANGE LIKELY DUE TO THE HIGH HUMIDITY.
USED THE CONSSHORT AS A STARTING POINT AGAIN FOR THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS
THROUGH THE FIRST 18-24 HOURS BEFORE GOING WITH THE SUPERBLEND
THEREAFTER. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP MORE SIMILAR TO THE WETTER MET
NUMBERS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT THU OCT 9 2014
SATURDAY WILL START OFF WITH MUCH OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND
APPALACHIAN REGION IN A ZONAL PATTERN. HOWEVER...EXPECT THIS PATTERN
TO BECOME AMPLIFIED AS WE GO FURTHER INTO THE WEEKEND...AS A TROUGH
DIGS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND EASTERN KY FINDS ITSELF ON THE
DOWNWIND SIDE OF THE TROUGH. WHILE THE TROUGH WILL HAVE LITTLE
EASTWARD MOTION INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK...IT WILL CONTINUE TO
DEEPEN...WITH FALLING HEIGHTS EXPECTED ACROSS KENTUCKY. ALL MODELS
AGREE ON A EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THIS TROUGH BY LATE MONDAY
NIGHT/DURING THE DAY TUESDAY TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND
AREAS EASTWARD. UNFORTUNATELY...THE STRENGTH OF THE TROUGHING AND
THE EXACT TIMING ARE RATHER LACKING.
AS FOR SURFACE FEATURES...THE ZONAL FLOW WILL HAVE CAUSED A SURFACE
FRONT TO BECOME ELONGATED FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN KY AND
STALL. BY 12Z SATURDAY...THE FRONT WILL BE STATIONARY...AND CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE ENOUGH INSTABILITY THAT SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY BOTH SATURDAY...SUNDAY...AND CONTINUING
INTO MONDAY. BY MONDAY...HOWEVER...THE UPPER LEVEL DEEPENING TROUGH
WILL BEGIN TO PLAY A ROLE. AS HEIGHTS DECREASE ACROSS THE
REGION...THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL FINALLY MOVE NORTH IN THE FORM OF
A WARM FRONT...WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY AND PULLING IN
WARMER TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION FOR MONDAY/S HIGHS. MEANWHILE...A
STRONG SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE FROM MANITOBA TO THE NORTHER GREAT
LAKES...AND CONTINUE ON AN EASTERLY PATH. FROM THIS LOW WILL STRETCH
A STRONG COLD FRONT...REACHING AS FAR SOUTHWARD AS SOUTHERN TX. AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FINALLY PUSHES EASTWARD MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...SO WILL THE SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT. MODEL DATA IS
STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AS FAR AS TIMING AND EXACT STRENGTH THIS
LATE IN THE FORECAST...BUT EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH
EASTERN KY SOMETIME EARLY ON TUESDAY.
ALONG WITH THIS FRONT WILL COME STRONG FORCING AND PULL OF MOISTURE
OFF OF THE ATLANTIC. THIS WILL BRING YET ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH PWATS EXCEEDING 1.75 INCHES BEFORE 18Z
TUESDAY. MOISTURE CAN BE FOUND FROM THE SURFACE ALL THE WAY TO THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...SO WOULD EXPECT THAT THIS WILL BE
QUITE THE SOAKER OF AN EVENT. NOT TO MENTION...ALL THE RAIN THAT HAS
FALLEN ON PREVIOUS DAY /EACH DAY IS LOOKING AT PWAT VALUES WELL OVER
AN INCH LEADING UP TO THIS POINT/. ALTHOUGH THIS IS A QUICK MOVING
SYSTEM...AND DRYING WILL LIKELY COME QUICKLY AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...THE AMOUNT OF RAIN THAT MAY BE PRODUCED WITH THIS LINE OF
STORMS MAY BE ENOUGH TO LEAD TO FLOODING POTENTIAL ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE REGION. UNFORTUNATELY...THIS FAR OUT...IT IS HARD TO TELL
WHICH AREAS WILL BE HIT THE HARDEST LEADING UP TO THIS POINT...AND
THE UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN THE MODELS ON THE EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT
OF THIS LINE HAS LED TO HOLDING OFF ON ANY SORT OF FLOOD WATCH AT
THIS TIME. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE SOMETHING TO DEFINITELY KEEP AN EYE
OUT FOR...AS EXCESSIVE WATER WILL LIKELY BE A PROBLEM LEADING INTO
THIS EVENT.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...CLEARING WILL FINALLY TAKE HOLD
AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO BUILD BACK ACROSS THE REGION. COOLER CANADIAN
AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...SO EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
LOWER FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID
AND UPPER 60S...WHILE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL DROP DOWN TO THE
UPPER 40S TUESDAY NIGHT...AND LOW TO MID 40S BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 140 AM EDT FRI OCT 10 2014
THIS TAF PERIOD IS GOING TO SEE A MIXED BAG OF CONDITIONS.
INITIALLY...THERE IS SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE VALLEYS AND AT
SJS. IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...THUNDERSTORMS ARE
MOVING INTO WAYNE AND PULASKI COUNTIES. EXPECT THIS CONVECTION TO
SPREAD TO THE EAST NORTHEAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AFTER
SUNRISE...THE MODELS ARE FORECASTING THE PRECIPITATION TO BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD. AS THE PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD THE CIGS ARE
GOING TO SLOWER LOWER TO NEAR IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS. DO EXPECT QUITE
A BIT OF VARIABILITY OF THE CIGS AND VSBY AS SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE
AERODROMES. THIS RAIN IS EXPECTED TO LAST OFF AND ON THROUGHOUT THE
REST OF THE PERIOD. AFTER 03-04Z TONIGHT...EXPECT THE CIGS TO START
DROPPING TO NEAR 500 FEET ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITH THE HILLS
BEING OBSCURED.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...JJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
1114 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2014
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1114 PM CDT THU OCT 9 2014
Updated the aviation section. Previous public update discussion
included below...
Late evening update addresses near midnight and post midnight
weather. Focused most of the thunderstorm chances along the
impressed frontal boundary along the southern 1/4 of the WFO PAH
forecast area, following the passage of the MCS into the Pennyrile
and the thunderstorms generated in advance of the MCV moving
across Southeast IL at this time.
Blended the afternoon package PoPs/Weather with the HRRR output,
keeping most of the area out of thunderstorms. Shifted
temperatures/dewpoints/winds/etc...further south to account for
the effective boundary interactions.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 132 PM CDT THU OCT 9 2014
The frontal boundary is perched along our southwest border and is
beginning to return its warm sector. As it does, waa convection
now seen over central MO will spread southward and eastward across
the PAH FA tonight, with likely-categorical Pops. We will monitor
the QPF output during the next 24 hours, as we still remain quite
dry, with most locales having only had about 1/4 to 1/2 inch
rainfall thus far.
Mid to High pops range continue into the weekend. And while the
front sags in a quasi-stationary fashion overtop the FA, with some
(particularly northern counties) even in low layer nly flow...the
flow off the surface remains overrunning. And the models continue
to offer elevated indices (K, TT, SI) supportive of thunder for
most/if not all the FA thru the remainder of the short term
forecast period. So we continue its mention for the most part,
playing it down to slgt chance in the farthest northern counties
during the time frame(s) it is least expected given the synoptic
setup.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 157 PM CDT THU OCT 9 2014
Medium confidence in the extended but improving.
Models are in much better agreement than they have been in the last
week. Or it could be said they are coming closer to what the ECMWF
has been advertising. Most model solutions agree on at least some
surface based instability Sunday so included at least a mention of
thunder. Then on Monday and Monday night is our best chance of
strong or severe with main frontal passage. Thus made thunder
predominant there. Also its the best chance of heavy rain across the
area. This is supported with negative LI`s approaching -5 and CAPE
values around 1k j/kg. It is not outlooked by SPC yet but the
verbiage for SWODY48 would indicate possible inclusion as confidence
in models improve as the event draws closer. Flooding remains
possible but currently are not forecasting amounts exceeding flash
flood guidance. However...localized flooding of urban...low lying
and flood prone areas should be anticipated at least briefly.
A surge in temps well above normal just ahead of the front Monday
then below normal in its wake finally returning to normal late in
the week.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 1114 PM CDT THU OCT 9 2014
Main adjustments were for the latest trends. Appears the surface
boundary is from near K2I0 to KPAH to KPOF. It should drift slowly
south overnight. Some lower cigs should work in with time, as winds
go N/NE across the region just behind the front. The probability for
measurable rains/possible thunder will jump up again from the west
by morning, continuing through the day.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW ORLEANS LA
1033 AM CDT FRI OCT 10 2014
.UPDATE...
TOWERING CUMULUS AND SOME CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS ON VISIBLE IMAGERY
AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS WERE FORMING ON COMBINATION OF
LAKE/SEABREEZE BOUNDARIES AND OTHER MORE NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTED
CONVERGENCE BOUNDARIES. RADAR ALSO INDICATED A FEW SHOWERS OVER
SOME COASTAL AREAS.
THE MORNING LIX SOUNDING INDICATED RATHER LOW TRIGGER/CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES DUE TO UNSEASONABLY MOIST AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE LOW
LEVELS. ALSO...VARIOUS LARGER SCALE AND MESOSCALE MODEL
SOLUTIONS AND MOS GUIDANCE IS ALSO PICKING UP ON THIS AND SUGGESTS
THE THREAT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST LAND
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE CLEANED UP THE FORECASTS FOR
THE ENDING OF THE MORNING FOG AND THE EXPANDED AREA OF SLIGHT RAIN
CHANCES. 22/TD
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 432 AM CDT FRI OCT 10 2014/
SHORT TERM...
MOIST GULF MARINE LAYER OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL MAINTAIN MORE OF
A SUMMER CLOUD COVER PATTERN. DEEP FETCHED ONSHORE FLOW WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE CONVERGENT CLOUD STREETS THAT MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH
FOCUS AND LIFT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS
INDICATED BY THE SHORT RANGE HRRR AND WRF MODELS. THIS PATTERN
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH 20 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES EACH
AFTERNOON AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY.
LONG TERM...
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS THE FRONTAL PASSAGE INDICATED
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH INDICATING AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH WITH A COUPLET
OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TROUGH AS IT
APPROACHES THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WHILE THE BULK OF SEVERE
WEATHER DOES APPEAR TO PASS NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE
DEGREE OF UPPER LEVEL COOLING...FRONTAL FORCING AND AMBIENT DEEP
LAYERED MOISTURE DOES FAVOR SQUALL LINE DYNAMICS ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE FRONT AS IS MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT.
THE LATEST STORM PREDICTION CENTER DAY 4 OUTLOOK HAS INTRODUCED A
RISK AREA FOR THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY DURING THAT
PERIOD AND THIS WILL BE MAINTAINED IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK. AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...COLD AIR ADVECTION IS
STRONGEST ON TUESDAY WITH SHARP TROUGH ALOFT...BUT THE ADVECTION
NEUTRALIZES RATHER QUICKLY WHILE SURFACE HIGH EXPANDS ACROSS THE
GULF STATES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE GRADUAL WARMING TREND ONSETS INTO
THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION...
IFR AND LOW END MVFR CEILINGS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD LIFT
QUICKLY BY 14Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED IN
COVERAGE TODAY...MAINLY FOCUSED ON CONVERGENCE STREETS DOWNWIND
FROM MOISTURE SOURCES THIS AFTERNOON...BUT TOO ISOLATED TO MENTION
IN ANY TAF LOCATION AT THIS TIME.
MARINE...
ONSHORE FLOW TO MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND RELATIVELY
LOW SEAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN ADVANCE OF
DEVELOPING DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE LOWER PLAINS STATES
MONDAY...WINDS OVER THE NORTH GULF SHOULD INCREASE TO MODERATE
LEVELS. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE BY TUESDAY MORNING WILL USHER COOLER
AND DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW THAT WILL LIKELY WARRANT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY ISSUANCE FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
SIGNIFICANCE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 88 69 84 68 / 20 10 20 20
BTR 88 69 87 69 / 20 10 20 10
ASD 87 68 86 67 / 20 10 20 10
MSY 88 72 86 72 / 20 10 20 10
GPT 85 69 84 68 / 20 10 20 10
PQL 85 65 85 64 / 20 10 10 10
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW ORLEANS LA
432 AM CDT FRI OCT 10 2014
.SHORT TERM...
MOIST GULF MARINE LAYER OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL MAINTAIN MORE OF
A SUMMER CLOUD COVER PATTERN. DEEP FETCHED ONSHORE FLOW WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE CONVERGENT CLOUD STREETS THAT MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH
FOCUS AND LIFT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS
INDICATED BY THE SHORT RANGE HRRR AND WRF MODELS. THIS PATTERN
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH 20 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES EACH
AFTERNOON AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY.
.LONG TERM...
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS THE FRONTAL PASSAGE INDICATED
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH INDICATING AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH WITH A COUPLET
OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TROUGH AS IT
APPROACHES THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WHILE THE BULK OF SEVERE
WEATHER DOES APPEAR TO PASS NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE
DEGREE OF UPPER LEVEL COOLING...FRONTAL FORCING AND AMBIENT DEEP
LAYERED MOISTURE DOES FAVOR SQUALL LINE DYNAMICS ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE FRONT AS IS MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT.
THE LATEST STORM PREDICTION CENTER DAY 4 OUTLOOK HAS INTRODUCED A
RISK AREA FOR THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY DURING THAT
PERIOD AND THIS WILL BE MAINTAINED IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK. AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...COLD AIR ADVECTION IS
STRONGEST ON TUESDAY WITH SHARP TROUGH ALOFT...BUT THE ADVECTION
NEUTRALIZES RATHER QUICKLY WHILE SURFACE HIGH EXPANDS ACROSS THE
GULF STATES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE GRADUAL WARMING TREND ONSETS INTO
THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
IFR AND LOW END MVFR CEILINGS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD LIFT
QUICKLY BY 14Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED IN
COVERAGE TODAY...MAINLY FOCUSED ON CONVERGENCE STREETS DOWNWIND
FROM MOISTURE SOURCES THIS AFTERNOON...BUT TOO ISOLATED TO MENTION
IN ANY TAF LOCATION AT THIS TIME.
&&
.MARINE...
ONSHORE FLOW TO MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND RELATIVELY
LOW SEAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN ADVANCE OF
DEVELOPING DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE LOWER PLAINS STATES
MONDAY...WINDS OVER THE NORTH GULF SHOULD INCREASE TO MODERATE
LEVELS. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE BY TUESDAY MORNING WILL USHER COOLER
AND DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW THAT WILL LIKELY WARRANT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY ISSUANCE FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
SIGNIFICANCE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 88 69 84 68 / 20 10 20 20
BTR 88 69 87 69 / 20 10 20 10
ASD 87 68 86 67 / 10 10 20 10
MSY 88 72 86 72 / 10 10 20 10
GPT 85 69 84 68 / 10 10 20 10
PQL 85 65 85 64 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
24/RR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
1203 AM CDT FRI OCT 10 2014
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 10/06Z TAFS...ISOLD CONVECTION AFFECTING THE MLU TERMINAL
EARLY THIS MORNING BUT WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST AROUND THE START OF
THIS TAF PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL INITIALLY THIS MORNING
BUT STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY RETURN BY MID TO LATE MORNING
PRODUCING MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR CIGS AT ALL TERMINALS PRIOR TO OR
VERY NEAR DAYBREAK THROUGH 10/15Z-16Z. PATCHY FOG WILL BE AN ISSUE
AS WELL BUT MORE LIKELY AT LFK/MLU/ELD AS WARM AND MOIST SOUTH
FLOW WILL PREVAIL. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE LIGHT THIS MORNING AT 5 KTS
OR LESS AT MOST SITES BUT INCREASE ONCE AGAIN TO AROUND 10 KTS
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RESUME PRIOR
TO 18Z AS CIGS BEGIN TO LIFT AND SCATTER. /19/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1007 PM CDT THU OCT 9 2014/
DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP/SHIFT NE ACROSS THE ERN
SECTIONS OF NCNTRL LA AS OF MID-EVENING...TIED INTO AN AREA OF
ENHANCED SFC THETA-E AND RESULTANT INSTABILITY. WHILE THE 00Z
PROGS HAVE NOT INITIALIZED WELL ON THIS CONVECTION THIS
EVENING...THE HRRR DOES...BUT HAS IT EXITING THE
REGION/DIMINISHING AROUND 06Z. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE...AS
INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO WANE OVERNIGHT. HAVE EXTENDED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THESE AREAS THROUGH 06Z...DROPPING THEM
AFTERWARDS. OTHERWISE...A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY THIS EVENING WILL GIVE
WAY TO AN EXTENSIVE STRATUS SHIELD LATE...AS THEY DEVELOP/STREAM N
ALONG A 20-30KT SSW LLJ. HAVE WORDED SKY CONDITIONS TO REFLECT
THIS TREND OF BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY...WITH THE STRATUS EXPECTED
TO LIFT BY LATE MORNING/MIDDAY FRIDAY. GIVEN THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKY
OVER MUCH OF THE REGION...TEMPS HAVE FALLEN QUICKLY INTO THE UPPER
60S/LOWER 70S OVER EXTREME NE TX/SE OK/SW AR...AND HAVE MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO MIN TEMPS OVER THESE AREAS.
A WEAK SFC FRONT REMAINS STATIONARY TO OUR N OVER NRN OK/SRN MO
THIS EVENING...AND SHOULD REMAIN SO OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE WRN
EXTENT OF THE FRONT OVER WRN OK MAY BEGIN TO SLOWLY SHIFT SE LATE
TOWARDS DAYBREAK. THIS FRONT SHOULD REMAIN WELL N OF THE REGION
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY...WITH MUCH OF THE CONVECTION
EXPECTED LATE IN THE DAY...MORE LIKELY FRIDAY EVENING OVER EXTREME
NE TX/SE OK/SW AR. HAVE LOWERED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE FRIDAY
MORNING FOR THE NRN ZONES...BUT DID MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR THE
AFTERNOON FOR SCT CONVECTION THAT SHOULD DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY.
ELSEWHERE...ONLY ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS EXPECTED.
ZONE UPDATE ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.
15
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 70 90 69 83 66 / 10 20 40 70 40
MLU 71 90 66 85 66 / 20 20 30 60 40
DEQ 67 85 64 76 60 / 10 40 80 90 40
TXK 68 86 66 79 62 / 10 30 70 80 40
ELD 66 88 65 81 64 / 20 30 40 70 40
TYR 71 90 68 81 63 / 10 20 60 70 40
GGG 69 90 67 83 64 / 10 20 40 70 40
LFK 71 89 70 85 67 / 10 20 30 70 40
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
19
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
713 PM EDT SAT OCT 11 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT SAT OCT 11 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW THAT THE PERSISTENT TROF
THAT HAS DOMINATED SE CANADA AND THE NE CONUS IS NOW LIFTING OUT AS
STRONG JET AND NEW TROF BEGIN TO PUSH INTO THE NWRN CONUS.
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE NRN PLAINS/SCNTRL CANADA IS ALSO BEING
FORCED EASTWARD. AS A RESULT...WAA IS BEGINNING TO SPREAD INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTN. EARLIER TODAY...QUITE A BIT OF
CU/STRATOCU DEVELOPED WITHIN 850MB THERMAL TROF THAT WAS PUSHING
ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN UPPER MI. COMBINATION OF WEAK WAA AND MIXING
OUT OF MOISTURE HAS LED TO RAPID DISSIPATION OF THESE CLOUDS FROM
THE W. AS OF 19Z...CLOUDS ARE STILL HANGING ON E OF A
MUNISING/ESCANABA LINE. EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO CLEAR OUT OVER THE
NEXT FEW HRS.
SHORT TERM WEATHER WILL BE QUIET AS UPSTREAM RIDGE SHIFTS ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT AND THEN TO THE E ON SUN. THIS WILL RESULT IN GRADUALLY
STRENGTHENING SW FLOW/WAA. TONIGHT...AXIS OF STRONGEST
WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS FOCUSED WELL TO THE N TOWARD JAMES BAY
VCNTY. SO...PCPN IS NOT A CONCERN HERE. IN FACT...SKY WILL BE CLEAR.
ONLY ISSUE TONIGHT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO DEVELOP OVER THE ERN
FCST AREA. LIGHT/CALM WIND AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AT LEAST
THRU THE EVENING WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 30S IN THE
INTERIOR AND AS LOW AS THE UPPER 20S/LWR 30S IN THE TRADITIONAL COLD
SPOTS. WITH TEMPS FALLING PAST THE CROSSOVER TEMP AND MORE
IMPORTANTLY WITH LIGHT NEAR SFC FLOW OFF NRN LAKE MICHIGAN ADVECTING
HIGHER DWPTS INLAND OVERNIGHT...SEEMS LIKELY THAT SOME FOG WILL
DEVELOP.
DESPITE PERSISTENT SW FLOW...COLUMN REMAINS DRY ON SUNDAY. THUS...
EXPECT ABUNDANT SUNSHINE ONLY FILTERED BY SOME INCREASE IN HIGH
CLOUDS DURING THE AFTN. MIXING TO 875-850MB ON FCST SOUNDINGS YIELDS
MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 50S TO AS HIGH AS THE LWR 60S.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT SAT OCT 11 2014
...WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER IN STORE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MON MORNING SHOULD END UP BEING FAIRLY QUIET WITH
THE BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH STILL WEST OF
THE AREA. HOWEVER...AS THE FRONT AND TROUGH MOVE EAST...EXPECT AN
INCREASE OF MOISTURE AND CLOUDS...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN LATE CLOSE TO THE WI BORDER.
AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST
SUNDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG IT IN THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THIS LOW WILL MOVE NORTH/NORTHEAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE
GFS LOOKS TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF IN SHOWING A
FAIRLY SHARP AREA OF DEFORMATION AND FRONTOGENETIC CIRCULATION
DEVELOPING NEAR THE INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE GFS NOW SUGGESTS THAT THE
BEST FORCING AND 850MB THERMAL PACKING WILL BE SUPPRESSED SLIGHTLY
FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH WHICH IS SIMILAR TO WHAT THE ECMWF HAS SHOWN.
AS SUCH...THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO FAR
NORTHERN LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER MI. HOWEVER...AM STILL EXPECTING
MOST OF THE EASTERN 2/3 OF UPPER MICHIGAN TO SEE STEADY RAINFALL
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY SINCE PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WILL STILL BE 150-200 PCT OF NORMAL ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN. AS SUCH...WILL MAINTAIN CATEGORICAL POPS
ACROSS MUCH OF UPPER MICHIGAN MON NIGHT AND MAINTAIN THOSE INTO TUE
MORNING ACROSS THE EAST. WITH DRY EASTERLY FLOW INITIALLY...WILL OPT
TO HOLD OFF THE STEADY PCPN ACROSS THE FAR EAST UNTIL MON EVENING.
GUSTY NORTH WINDS TUE-TUE NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR WAVES OF 7-9 FEET
ALONG THE SHORELINE OF MARQUETTE AND ALGER COUNTIES. GIVEN THE
RELATIVELY HIGH WATER LEVELS COMBINED WITH THE WAVE SETUP...THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MINOR BEACH EROSION IN THESE AREAS.
THE UPPER LOW WILL BE QUITE SLOW TO MOVE OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AS IT BECOMES CUT OFF FROM THE MEAN FLOW TO TH NORTH. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT TO PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH WED AT LEAST. MEANWHILE...CONSIDERABLY DRIER AIR ATTEMPTS TO
MOVE IN FROM THE WEST WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES LOWERING TO
BELOW 1 INCH. WITH THIS SAID...CANNOT RULE OUT A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
ACROSS THE EAST ON TUE NIGHT INTO WED WHERE THE BETTER MOISTURE WILL
BE. HOWEVER...DYNAMICS WILL BE FAIRLY LIMITED DESPITE CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT...AND INSTABILITY OFF THE LAKE WILL BE MINIMAL AT BEST DUE TO
WARM 850MB TEMPS OF AROUND +8C. WILL THEREFORE LIMIT CHC POPS ONLY
TO THE EAST TUE NIGHT INTO WED AND KEEP THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
DRY. MAY HAVE A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
FINALLY LIFTS OUT AND THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
HOWEVER...THE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE CERTAINLY NOT CONSISTENT WITH THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND PCPN IN THIS PERIOD...WITH THE ECMWF BEING
MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS OR GEM. BEHIND THIS TROUGH...850MB
TEMPS DROP TO -6C FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WHICH COMBINED WITH NW PBL
FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A
FEW WET SNOW FLAKES SATURDAY MORNING.
OVERALL...MUCH OF THE WEEK WILL SEE TEMPS AT OR ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGHS EACH DAY IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 712 PM EDT SAT OCT 11 2014
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST AS THE REGION REMAINS
UNDER A DRY AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH RETREATING HIGH PRESSURE.
INCREASING SSW WINDS ABOVE THE SFC ON BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH WILL
RESULT IN WINDS APPROACHING LLWS CRITERIA BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z AT
KIWD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT SAT OCT 11 2014
GENERALLY QUIET MARINE WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10-20 KT WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. THESE WINDS WILL PERSIST ON SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT...LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SLOWLY
MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOUTH
WINDS TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY...BEFORE SHIFTING TO
THE NORTH AND INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KT ON TUE/TUE NIGHT WITH WAVES
BUILDING TO 6-9 FEET. THE LOW WEAKENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WED WHILE
MOVING NORTHEAST...ALLOWING THE WINDS TO ALSO WEAKEN TO 10-20 KT.
SOUTH WINDS ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD
FRONT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...MRD
AVIATION...RJT
MARINE...MRD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON MS
1045 AM FRI OCT 10 2014
.UPDATE...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED LOW
LEVEL GULF INFLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS WHICH PROVIDED OUR STRATUS
COVERAGE FOR THIS MORNING. PWATS WERE RUNNING AROUND 1.7 INCHES WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS WELL
AS LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS. THE BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT WAS NOTED ACROSS
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA THROUGH NORTH MISSISSIPPI. AREA RADARS WERE
PICKING UP SHOWERS NORTH OF THE REGION AHEAD OF A STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDING THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. IN THE MID TO UPPER
LEVEL MEAN FLAT RIDGING WAS NOTED WITH WESTERLY FLOW. DECENT UPPER
DIVERGENCE WAS NOTED WITH THE CONVECTION ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT.
SPC MESO ANALYSIS SHOWED MEAN EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 20-30 KNOTS...0-6
KM SHEAR 30S KNOTS...0-8KM SHEAR 40 KNOTS AND 100 SRH IN THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. SO THE STORMS IN THE NORTH COMBINED
WITH A LITTLE INSTABILITY COULD BE ON THE STRONG SIDE FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. THUS SPC HAS A 5 PERCENT WIND RISK FOR THAT AREA. HOWEVER
ANY CONVECTION ALONG THE TN VALLEY FRONT MAY RESULT IN AN OUTFLOW
PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE REGION...WHICH BEARS
WATCHING CONSIDERING THE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY. IF THAT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY OCCURS MAY HAVE TO PUT AN LIMITED RISK FOR THIS NORTH FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING IN THE HWO. OTHERWISE MADE NO MAJOR
CHANGES TO THE ZONES OTHER THAN WORDING WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WRF MODELS SHOWS DECENT ACTIVITY IN THE NORTH FOR
THIS AFTERNOON./17/
./PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...423 AM CDT FRI OCT 10 2014
.DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
HIGHER RAIN SHOWER COVERAGE EXPECTED TODAY VS. YESTERDAY AS ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE. SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY WITH MORE CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF RAIN FOR PORTIONS OF THE
AREA.
RESIDUAL CONVECTIVE DEBRIS AND SOME ADDITIONAL HIGH CLOUDS COMBINED
WITH CONTINUED SURFACE MIXING WINDS HAVE HAMPERED ANY FOG
DEVELOPMENT THUS FAR. HRRR HAS BACKED OFF ON ANY DENSE VISIBILITIES
IN SE MS WHERE STRATUS SEEMS TO BE THE DOMINANT CONDENSATION
ELEMENT VS. FOG. WILL MONITOR A LITTLE WHILE LONGER BUT CONFIDENCE
IS LOW THAT ANY DENSE FOG WILL DEVELOP AND WILL PULL CURRENT
HWO/GRAPHIC. THAT BEING STATED, SOME PATCHY AREAS OF FOG WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH 9AM BUT JUST DON`T THINK IT WILL BECOME DENSE AND
BE STRATUS IN NATURE. SECONDLY, NAM12 INDICATES ISENTROPIC LIFT
EARLY THIS MORNING THAT COULD AID IN SHOWER GENERATION AND HAVE
ADDED LIGHT SHOWER WORDING THROUGH EARLY TO MID MORNING.
FOR THE REST OF TODAY...EXPECT GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF REGION AS PWATS FURTHER
INCREASE TOWARDS 1.6-1.7" IN PRESENCE OF ~1000 J/KG MLCAPE DURING
PEAK HEATING HOURS. TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S
TODAY AREA WIDE. BY EARLY EVENING, A STRONGER SHORTWAVE IMPULSE WILL
MOVE ALONG A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE IN AR AND COULD AID IN AN
ORGANIZED LINEAR CONVECTIVE BAND PER HI-RES AND SPC SSEO OUTPUT.
WHILE THE AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER OUR AREA LOOK TO DISSIPATE BY EARLY
EVENING, THIS LINEAR BAND SHOULD REMAIN MORE INTACT AND APPROACH THE
DELTA LATE TONIGHT. THIS LINE SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT MOVES THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, ANOTHER AND STRONGER IMPULSE OVER
TX MAY HELP ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION ACROSS LA/AR THAT
COULD SPREAD INTO THE DELTA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. HOW THIS WILL
EVOLVE INTO SATURDAY AFTN FOR THE 82 CORRIDOR IS STILL IN QUESTION.
OVERALL MODEL ENVELOP (EC/GEM/UKMET/NAM) KEEPS BEST RAIN/TSTORM
CHANCES/QPF IN DELTA AREA AND NORTH SAT AFTN AS MODELS PROG A WEAK
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING IN AR THAT WOULD ACT TO KEEP THE FRONT
FARTHER NORTH. ONLY OUTLIER IS GFS WITH A WEAKER INVERTED SURFACE
TROUGH THAT ALLOWS FOR FRONT TO OOZE SOUTH AND THUS ELEVATES RAIN
TOTALS FOR NORTH HALF OF AREA. HAVE WEIGHTED FORECAST TOWARD
ENVELOPE AVERAGE WHICH IS MORE IN AGREEMENT WITH WPC QPF GUIDANCE.
TEMPS WILL BE COOLER SATURDAY AS CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL KEEP
READINGS IN THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO MID 80S SOUTH. /ALLEN/
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
OUR FLOW ALOFT WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY
AHEAD OF A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS WILL COMBINE
WITH SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND A SURFACE HIGH CENTERED
NORTHEAST OF OUR CWA. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WARM DAY WITH WAA SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON. GREATEST COVERAGE OF CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL
TOP OUT ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 80S AT MOST SITES. MAIN FOCUS OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT A POTENT NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL BE DROPPING OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST CONUS SUNDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT HELPING TO DEEPEN A SURFACE LOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY
MONDAY EVENING. NEAR 80-100M HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY EVENING
AS THE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE REGION. IN RESPONSE...WIND FIELDS WILL
STRENGTHEN MONDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM INCLUDING 50-60KT
50H AND 40-50KT 85H FLOW LEADING TO 0-6KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 45KTS
WITH STRONG 0-1KM AND 0-3KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES. SURFACE DEW
POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WITH PWS OF 1.7
POOLING TO NEAR TWO INCHES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOWER 80S WILL LEND TO MLCAPES 1000-1500J/KG. LOCAL COOL SEASON
SEVERE WEATHER CHECKLIST POINTS TO AN INCREASED POTENTIAL OF NUMEROUS
SEVERE STORMS WITH SOME SIGNIFICANT. LATEST CIPS RUN CONTINUES TO
SHOW SOME IMPRESSIVE SEVERE WEATHER ANALOGUES FOR PAST SYSTEMS WITH
SIMILAR PARAMETERS. THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS...TORNADOES AND SOME HAIL...BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO
A CONCERN. MODEL RUN ACCUMULATIONS OF TWO TO FOUR INCHES OVER THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF OUR CWA LOOK REASONABLE. THE GFS IS STILL A LITTLE
FASTER THAN THE ECMWF AND FARTHER NORTH IN CLOSING OFF A LOW OVER THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT BUT MODEL CONSENSUS SHIFTS THE
SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL EAST OF OUR CWA BY TUESDAY MORNING. DEPENDING
ON THE ACTUAL POSITION OF THE CLOSED LOW...LIGHT RAIN MAY HOLD IN THE
NORTH MUCH OF THE DAY TUESDAY.
MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO OUR CWA IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT TUESDAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE HELD IN THE 70S. DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AREAWIDE. SURFACE HIGH WILL
SHIFT EAST OVER OUR CWA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND UNDER CLEAR SKIES
AND NORTHWEST WIND ALOFT...TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT CLOSE TO
NORMAL IN THE LOWER 50S AT MOST SITES. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE
SHIFTING EAST THROUGH FRIDAY. RIDGING ALOFT WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER
OUR CWA THURSDAY AND SHIFT EAST OF OUR REGION FRIDAY. THIS WILL LEAD
TO A SLOW WARMING TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. /22/
&&
.AVIATION...MVFR CIGS SLOW TO BURN OFF THIS MORNING BUT SHOULD SEE
IMPROVEMENT IN THE CIG CATEGORY BEFORE 18Z. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EARLY NIGHT PERIOD. MAY SEE MVFR CIGS
REDEVELOP TONIGHT AFTER 06Z.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 89 69 85 67 / 29 21 35 26
MERIDIAN 88 67 86 65 / 27 19 26 23
VICKSBURG 89 68 84 67 / 31 34 49 33
HATTIESBURG 89 68 89 65 / 21 14 20 16
NATCHEZ 88 69 85 68 / 27 14 37 22
GREENVILLE 89 67 78 67 / 38 69 75 55
GREENWOOD 88 66 79 66 / 38 47 58 55
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
17/SCW/ALLEN/22
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON MS
423 AM CDT FRI OCT 10 2014
.DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
HIGHER RAIN SHOWER COVERAGE EXPECTED TODAY VS. YESTERDAY AS ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE. SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY WITH MORE CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF RAIN FOR PORTIONS OF THE
AREA.
RESIDUAL CONVECTIVE DEBRIS AND SOME ADDITIONAL HIGH CLOUDS COMBINED
WITH CONTINUED SURFACE MIXING WINDS HAVE HAMPERED ANY FOG
DEVELOPMENT THUS FAR. HRRR HAS BACKED OFF ON ANY DENSE VISIBILITIES
IN SE MS WHERE STRATUS SEEMS TO BE THE DOMINANT CONDENSATION
ELEMENT VS. FOG. WILL MONITOR A LITTLE WHILE LONGER BUT CONFIDENCE
IS LOW THAT ANY DENSE FOG WILL DEVELOP AND WILL PULL CURRENT
HWO/GRAPHIC. THAT BEING STATED, SOME PATCHY AREAS OF FOG WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH 9AM BUT JUST DON`T THINK IT WILL BECOME DENSE AND
BE STRATUS IN NATURE. SECONDLY, NAM12 INDICATES ISENTROPIC LIFT
EARLY THIS MORNING THAT COULD AID IN SHOWER GENERATION AND HAVE
ADDED LIGHT SHOWER WORDING THROUGH EARLY TO MID MORNING.
FOR THE REST OF TODAY...EXPECT GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF REGION AS PWATS FURTHER
INCREASE TOWARDS 1.6-1.7" IN PRESENCE OF ~1000 J/KG MLCAPE DURING
PEAK HEATING HOURS. TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S
TODAY AREA WIDE. BY EARLY EVENING, A STRONGER SHORTWAVE IMPULSE WILL
MOVE ALONG A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE IN AR AND COULD AID IN AN
ORGANIZED LINEAR CONVECTIVE BAND PER HI-RES AND SPC SSEO OUTPUT.
WHILE THE AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER OUR AREA LOOK TO DISSIPATE BY EARLY
EVENING, THIS LINEAR BAND SHOULD REMAIN MORE INTACT AND APPROACH THE
DELTA LATE TONIGHT. THIS LINE SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT MOVES THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, ANOTHER AND STRONGER IMPULSE OVER
TX MAY HELP ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION ACROSS LA/AR THAT
COULD SPREAD INTO THE DELTA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. HOW THIS WILL
EVOLVE INTO SATURDAY AFTN FOR THE 82 CORRIDOR IS STILL IN QUESTION.
OVERALL MODEL ENVELOP (EC/GEM/UKMET/NAM) KEEPS BEST RAIN/TSTORM
CHANCES/QPF IN DELTA AREA AND NORTH SAT AFTN AS MODELS PROG A WEAK
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING IN AR THAT WOULD ACT TO KEEP THE FRONT
FARTHER NORTH. ONLY OUTLIER IS GFS WITH A WEAKER INVERTED SURFACE
TROUGH THAT ALLOWS FOR FRONT TO OOZE SOUTH AND THUS ELEVATES RAIN
TOTALS FOR NORTH HALF OF AREA. HAVE WEIGHTED FORECAST TOWARD
ENVELOPE AVERAGE WHICH IS MORE IN AGREEMENT WITH WPC QPF GUIDANCE.
TEMPS WILL BE COOLER SATURDAY AS CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL KEEP
READINGS IN THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO MID 80S SOUTH. /ALLEN/
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
OUR FLOW ALOFT WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY
AHEAD OF A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS WILL COMBINE
WITH SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND A SURFACE HIGH CENTERED
NORTHEAST OF OUR CWA. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WARM DAY WITH WAA SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON. GREATEST COVERAGE OF CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL
TOP OUT ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 80S AT MOST SITES. MAIN FOCUS OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT A POTENT NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL BE DROPPING OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST CONUS SUNDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT HELPING TO DEEPEN A SURFACE LOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY
MONDAY EVENING. NEAR 80-100M HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY EVENING
AS THE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE REGION. IN RESPONSE...WIND FIELDS WILL
STRENGTHEN MONDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM INCLUDING 50-60KT
50H AND 40-50KT 85H FLOW LEADING TO 0-6KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 45KTS
WITH STRONG 0-1KM AND 0-3KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES. SURFACE DEW
POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WITH PWS OF 1.7
POOLING TO NEAR TWO INCHES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOWER 80S WILL LEND TO MLCAPES 1000-1500J/KG. LOCAL COOL SEASON
SEVERE WEATHER CHECKLIST POINTS TO AN INCREASED POTENTIAL OF NUMEROUS
SEVERE STORMS WITH SOME SIGNIFICANT. LATEST CIPS RUN CONTINUES TO
SHOW SOME IMPRESSIVE SEVERE WEATHER ANALOGUES FOR PAST SYSTEMS WITH
SIMILAR PARAMETERS. THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS...TORNADOES AND SOME HAIL...BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO
A CONCERN. MODEL RUN ACCUMULATIONS OF TWO TO FOUR INCHES OVER THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF OUR CWA LOOK REASONABLE. THE GFS IS STILL A LITTLE
FASTER THAN THE ECMWF AND FARTHER NORTH IN CLOSING OFF A LOW OVER THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT BUT MODEL CONSENSUS SHIFTS THE
SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL EAST OF OUR CWA BY TUESDAY MORNING. DEPENDING
ON THE ACTUAL POSITION OF THE CLOSED LOW...LIGHT RAIN MAY HOLD IN THE
NORTH MUCH OF THE DAY TUESDAY.
MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO OUR CWA IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT TUESDAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE HELD IN THE 70S. DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AREAWIDE. SURFACE HIGH WILL
SHIFT EAST OVER OUR CWA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND UNDER CLEAR SKIES
AND NORTHWEST WIND ALOFT...TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT CLOSE TO
NORMAL IN THE LOWER 50S AT MOST SITES. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE
SHIFTING EAST THROUGH FRIDAY. RIDGING ALOFT WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER
OUR CWA THURSDAY AND SHIFT EAST OF OUR REGION FRIDAY. THIS WILL LEAD
TO A SLOW WARMING TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. /22/
&&
.AVIATION...IFR STRATUS CLOUDS ARE SPREADING ACROSS GOOD PORTION OF
CENTRAL MS WITH PERIODIC BREAKS ALLOWING FOR BRIEF MVFR AND VFR
CONDITIONS. MVFR.IFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
MID MORNING UNTIL BETTER MIXING OCCURS WITH VFR DOMINATING THROUGH
EVENING. SCT SHRA WITH SOME TSRA MIXED IN EXPECTED THIS 18Z-00Z THAT
COULD CAUSE HIGHLY LOCALIZED MVFR. WINDS WILL S/SW AT 10 KT OR LESS
THROUGH AFTN AND EVENING. /ALLEN/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 88 69 85 67 / 29 21 35 26
MERIDIAN 88 67 86 65 / 27 19 26 23
VICKSBURG 89 68 84 67 / 31 34 49 33
HATTIESBURG 89 68 89 65 / 21 14 20 16
NATCHEZ 86 69 85 68 / 27 14 37 22
GREENVILLE 89 67 78 67 / 38 69 75 55
GREENWOOD 88 66 79 66 / 38 47 58 55
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
ALLEN/22
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1246 AM CDT Fri Oct 10 2014
.UPDATE...
Issued at 753 PM CDT THU OCT 9 2014
With elevated instability quickly decreasing across the forecast
area, the threat for any thunderstorms capable of heavy rain is
shifting south into southeast KS and the MO Ozarks. However, a band
of deep frontogenesis across northern KS is causing a band of
moderate rain to develop over that area. RAP and NAM indicate this
frontogenetical band will shift southeast toward the KC area through
midnight, and could bring some enhanced rainfall rates around a half
inch per hour into the area. Wouldn`t be surprising to see a few
areas still see between an half inch and inch of additional rainfall
overnight with locally higher amounts. This probably won`t be enough
to cause significant flooding concerns, but given the rain that fell
earlier, will go ahead and hold on to the flood watch for the time
being.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 317 PM CDT THU OCT 9 2014
Round two of widespread rain is starting to get under way across
southern and central KS this afternoon ahead of an upper-level jet
streak coming out of the Southern Rockies. This source of deep
synoptic lift will bring an increase in precipitation this evening as
it interacts with a sloped frontal boundary. This feature stretches
from a surface front just south of the forecast area to an 850
boundary near the US 36 corridor. Most likely area to see heavy
rainfall this evening will be near and just north of the surface
front, or generally south of the US 50 corridor where the better
synoptic scale ascent and elevated instability will reside. However,
areas further north could also see several tenths of an inch of rain,
possibly 1"+ given the presence of the elevated boundary and
precipitable water values as high as 1.5". These areas also received
quite a bit of rainfall last night, anywhere from 2" to 5",
particularly from Atchison Co KS into the northern KC metro, and
another area along the Missouri River east of US 65. This has left
flood guidance very low across these areas, and even less than an
inch of rain could lead to a few flood problems there. Will therefore
keep the flood watch going for much of the area, but will cancel the
far northern counties where projected rainfall amounts combined with
last night`s rain don`t suggest any serious flooding concerns.
On Friday the sloped boundary in place will make steady southward
progress as a cold front, shifting the threat for heavy rain to the
south of the forecast area. Still expect off and on showers through
the afternoon for areas near and south of a KC to Moberly line until
drier air is able to filter in from the north later in the day. None
of this activity is likely to cause any additional flooding but could
prevent areas of ongoing flooding from otherwise receding. These off
and on showers will make it difficult to warm up and many areas will
struggle to rise out of the lower 50s.
Saturday and Saturday night still appear dry for most areas though
there could be some straggling showers over central Missouri.
Cool Canadian airmass will keep temperatures in the 50s across the
area.
Sunday and Monday will see significant amplification of an upper
level trough to the west, a process that will send a deepening
surface low tracking somewhere near the I-44 corridor Monday and
Monday night. This pattern would lead to a major winter storm for our
area if it were 2 or 3 months later, but will instead bring a round of
widespread rain to much of the region Sunday night and Monday. Some
areas could see up to an inch or so of rain particularly east of the
I-35 corridor. Deep ridging behind this system will provide a drying
trend for the remainder of the work week with temperatures gradually
rising into the lower 70s by Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1246 AM CDT FRI OCT 10 2014
Latest model guidance now support trends of improvement from north to
south through the early morning hrs. As a result...feel best chance
for long duration IFR will reside at IXD...with mainly MVFR
conditions expected at both MCI and MKC. Further north...VFR to
dominate at STJ through the early morning hrs. That said...light to
moderate shwr activity will persist through the morning with MVFR
VSBYS common at all sites with the exception of STJ. After
sunrise...expect improving conditions through the morning with
redeveloping shwrs possible by early afternoon as next wave of precip
moves through the area. Best chance for restrictions with this next
batch of rainfall will reside from MKC south through IXD. Breezy
northeast winds of 10-15 kts expected through the period.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLOOD WATCH through this evening FOR KSZ025-057-060-103>105.
MO...FLOOD WATCH through this evening FOR MOZ028>032-037>040-043>046-
053-054.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Hawblitzel
DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...32
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
219 PM EDT FRI OCT 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
OTHER THAN A FEW LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS IN NORTHERN NEW YORK, DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
TONIGHT AND SPREAD LIGHT RAIN INTO THE WYOMING
VALLEY...POCONOS...AND SOUTHERN CATSKILLS OVERNIGHT. THE REMAINDER
OF THE REGION WILL STAY DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WARMER
WEATHER EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
KTYX RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS TRACKING
ACROSS NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY. LAKE ONTARIO TEMPERATURES ARE IN
THE UPPER 50S F WHICH TRANSLATES TO 14-15C. 850 MB TEMPERATURES
ARE RUNNING CLOSE TO 1C WHICH IS LEADING TO A 13-14C TEMPERATURE
DIFFERENTIAL. THIS COMBINED WITH SOME MODEST WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
ADVECTING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE LARGE CYCLONE OVER EASTERN
CANADA WAS SUPPORTING SOME LAKE EFFECT SHRA. THE FLOW BETWEEN 900 AND
800 MB WAS DUE WESTERLY LATE THIS MORNING. THE FLOW IS PROJECTED
BY THE RAP, HRRR AND NAM TO VEER MORE NWRLY BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
OCCUR IN CONCERT WITH THE DAYTIME HEATING AND SHUD ALLOW THE LAKE
EFFECT SHRA TO BREAK UP BY 20Z OR SO. RADAR LOOP ALREADY SHOWS
THIS AND WE WILL CONT THIS TREND IN THE GRIDS.
NEXT WEATHER FEATURE TO AFFECT CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA IS A
SOUTHERN BRANCH WAVE WHICH WAS PRESENTLY MOVING ACRS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TO OHIO VALLEY. THE ASSCTD UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL UNDERCUT
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA WHICH IS PROJECTED TO MOVE
SLOWER THAN THIS SRN BRANCH WAVE. THIS WILL LEAD TO UPPER
CONFLUENCE OVER MUCH OF C AND NRN NY TO NRN NEW ENGLAND AND SE
CANADA BY THIS EVENING AND SUPPORT AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK. THE
POSITIONING OF THIS JET STREAK PUTS MUCH OF CNTRL AND ERN PA IN
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION SUPPORTG UVV LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. HI RES
MESOSCALE MODELS WHICH AGREE WITH THE PRESENT RADAR ECHOES SUPPORT A
RAIN SHIELD HEADING NE AND AFFECTING NE PA WITH LIGHT RAINFALL. THERE WILL
BE A SHARP CUT OFF TO THE RAIN FARTHER N. BIGGEST QUESTION IS HOW
FAR N WILL THE RAIN MAKE IT. WE DIDNT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE
NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE RAINFALL AS WE ARE WAITING FOR THE LATEST
12Z GUIDC TO COME IN. SO WE FOLLOWED PREVIOUS SHIFTS IDEA OF
HIGHEST POPS IN THE POCONOS WHICH BACK OFF TO SLGHT CHC NEAR THE
NY BRDR TO THE CATSKILLS. TIMING IS FROM ABT 22Z TODAY TO 14Z
SAT. REST OF FORECAST AREA WILL SEE MAINLY MID TO HI CLDS STREAM
OVERHEAD THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WITH SOME CUMULUS
FORMING IN NC NY WHERE THE CIRRUS WILL BE THINNER INITIALLY THIS
AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
430 AM UPDATE...
SHOWERS END QUICKLY EARLY SATURDAY WITH THE WEEKEND LOOKING DRY.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AND CRESTING OVER THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT, WIDESPREAD AREAS OF FROST LOOK LIKELY. WHILE WE ARE INTO
OUR SECOND WEEK OF OCTOBER, SOME OF OUR WARMER AREAS SUCH AS THE
LAKE PLAIN HAVE NOT SEEN A FROST YET SO FROST HEADLINES MAY BE
NEEDED AS WE GET A BIT CLOSER. THE TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
SUNDAY NIGHT IS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION. OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST OF A
HIGH CHANCE OF RAIN IS STILL IN LINE WITH THE 0Z EURO, WHICH SHOWS
RAIN AREA WIDE SUNDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE THE GFS AND NAM ARE
COMPLETELY DRY OUTSIDE OF A LATE NIGHT SHOWER OVER THE FAR
SOUTHWEST. TO MATCH UP BETTER WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES AND NEWER
GUIDANCE, WHILE STILL SHOWING SOME WEIGHT OF OUR PREVIOUS
FORECAST/EURO SOLUTION, LOWERED POPS INTO THE 25% RANGE. THE TREND
HOWEVER WOULD SUGGEST RAIN HOLDING OFF UNTIL MONDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...
FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE. MAIN FOCUS WILL BE THE AMPLIFIED TROF
SLOWLY MOVING EAST THROUGH THE REGION THE WHOLE PERIOD. QUESTIONS
STILL ON TIMING AND STRENGTH. WARM AIR AHEAD OF THE DEEP CUT OFF
TROF TUESDAY TO WED. LIKELY POPS TUE NGT AND WED ON THE FRONT SIDE
OF TROF. DEEP AND STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING MOISTURE INTO
OUR AREA FROM GULF AND TROPICS. SOAKING RAIN EXPECTED WITH AN INCH
OR TWO. TRAINING POSSIBLE SO WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR HEAVY RAIN.
WED TO FRI STILL CHANCE OF SHOWERS UNDER THE TROF BUT GFS FASTER
AND THUS DRY FRIDAY WHILE EURO STILL SHOWERY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
130 PM UPDATE...
MAINLY VFR THROUGH SATURDAY. VFR CIGS NORTH WITH LAKE MOISTURE OFF
OF LAKE ONTARIO AND HURON AND ALSO JUST SOUTH OF AVP WITH A WAVE
PASSING. THIS EVE THE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS WILL SCATTER BUT MORE
MOISTURE FROM THE SW WILL MOVE INTO SRN TIER OF NY AND NE PA LATE
TONIGHT. AT ELM SHOULD BE ENOUGH CLEARING SO THAT MVFR VSBY FOG
FORMS AND POSSIBLY IFR FOG 9 TO 13Z. AT AVP LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED
WITH POSSIBLY SOME MVFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT. AVP WILL BE ON THE EDGE
OF THE RAIN.
WEST WIND 5 TO 10 KTS THIS AFTN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TONIGHT. NW TO N WINDS AT 5 KTS STARTING 15Z SAT.
OUTLOOK...
SAT AFTN TO SUN NGT...VFR. MVFR VALLEY FOG AT ELM.
MON TO TUE...DEEP SRLY FLOW AHEAD OF CNTRL U.S. TROF RESULTING IN
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS DUE TO CIGS/SHRA/BR.
TUE NGT TO WED...STEADY RAIN RESULTING IN MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR
CONDITIONS.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN/HEDEN
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...TAC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1127 AM EDT FRI OCT 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
OTHER THAN A FEW LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS IN NORTHERN NEW YORK, DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
TONIGHT AND SPREAD LIGHT RAIN TO THE WYOMING
VALLEY...POCONOS...AND SOUTHERN CATSKILLS OVERNIGHT. THE REMAINDER
OF THE REGION WILL STAY DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WARMER
WEATHER EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
KTYX RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS TRACKING
ACROSS NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY. LAKE ONTARIO TEMPERATURES ARE IN
THE UPPER 50S F WHICH TRANSLATES TO 14-15C. 850 MB TEMPERATURES
ARE RUNNING CLOSE TO 1C WHICH IS LEADING TO A 13-14C TEMPERATURE
DIFFERENTIAL. THIS COMBINED WITH SOME MODEST WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
ADVECTING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE LARGE CYCLONE OVER EASTERN
CANADA WAS SUPPORTING SOME LAKE EFFECT SHRA. THE FLOW BETWEEN 900 AND
800 MB WAS DUE WESTERLY LATE THIS MORNING. THE FLOW IS PROJECTED
BY THE RAP, HRRR AND NAM TO VEER MORE NWRLY BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
OCCUR IN CONCERT WITH THE DAYTIME HEATING AND SHUD ALLOW THE LAKE
EFFECT SHRA TO BREAK UP BY 20Z OR SO. RADAR LOOP ALREADY SHOWS
THIS AND WE WILL CONT THIS TREND IN THE GRIDS.
NEXT WEATHER FEATURE TO AFFECT CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA IS A
SOUTHERN BRANCH WAVE WHICH WAS PRESENTLY MOVING ACRS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TO OHIO VALLEY. THE ASSCTD UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL UNDERCUT
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA WHICH IS PROJECTED TO MOVE
SLOWER THAN THIS SRN BRANCH WAVE. THIS WILL LEAD TO UPPER
CONFLUENCE OVER MUCH OF C AND NRN NY TO NRN NEW ENGLAND AND SE
CANADA BY THIS EVENING AND SUPPORT AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK. THE
POSITIONING OF THIS JET STREAK PUTS MUCH OF CNTRL AND ERN PA IN
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION SUPPORTG UVV LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. HI RES
MESOSCALE MODELS WHICH AGREE WITH THE PRESENT RADAR ECHOES SUPPORT A
RAIN SHIELD HEADING NE AND AFFECTING NE PA WITH LIGHT RAINFALL. THERE WILL
BE A SHARP CUT OFF TO THE RAIN FARTHER N. BIGGEST QUESTION IS HOW
FAR N WILL THE RAIN MAKE IT. WE DIDNT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE
NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE RAINFALL AS WE ARE WAITING FOR THE LATEST
12Z GUIDC TO COME IN. SO WE FOLLOWED PREVIOUS SHIFTS IDEA OF
HIGHEST POPS IN THE POCONOS WHICH BACK OFF TO SLGHT CHC NEAR THE
NY BRDR TO THE CATSKILLS. TIMING IS FROM ABT 22Z TODAY TO 14Z
SAT. REST OF FORECAST AREA WILL SEE MAINLY MID TO HI CLDS STREAM
OVERHEAD THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WITH SOME CUMULUS
FORMING IN NC NY WHERE THE CIRRUS WILL BE THINNER INITIALLY THIS
AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
430 AM UPDATE...
SHOWERS END QUICKLY EARLY SATURDAY WITH THE WEEKEND LOOKING DRY.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AND CRESTING OVER THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT, WIDESPREAD AREAS OF FROST LOOK LIKELY. WHILE WE ARE INTO
OUR SECOND WEEK OF OCTOBER, SOME OF OUR WARMER AREAS SUCH AS THE
LAKE PLAIN HAVE NOT SEEN A FROST YET SO FROST HEADLINES MAY BE
NEEDED AS WE GET A BIT CLOSER. THE TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
SUNDAY NIGHT IS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION. OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST OF A
HIGH CHANCE OF RAIN IS STILL IN LINE WITH THE 0Z EURO, WHICH SHOWS
RAIN AREA WIDE SUNDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE THE GFS AND NAM ARE
COMPLETELY DRY OUTSIDE OF A LATE NIGHT SHOWER OVER THE FAR
SOUTHWEST. TO MATCH UP BETTER WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES AND NEWER
GUIDANCE, WHILE STILL SHOWING SOME WEIGHT OF OUR PREVIOUS
FORECAST/EURO SOLUTION, LOWERED POPS INTO THE 25% RANGE. THE TREND
HOWEVER WOULD SUGGEST RAIN HOLDING OFF UNTIL MONDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAIN FOCUS WILL BE THE AMPLIFIED TROF PASSING THRU THE RGN
MIDWEEK. BIG QUESTIONS ARE THE PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM...RELATED
TO THE POTNL FOR THE TROF TO CUT-OFF AS IT LIFTS NEWD. LTL CHG TO THE
CRNT FCST WHICH IS BASED ON HPC GUIDANCE. WARM TEMPS ON MON- TUE.
THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE PLENTY OF MSTR TO WORK WITH AND POTNL FOR
+RA WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WLY FLOW CONTS WITH A LRG UPR LOW OVER ERN QUEBEC. THIS WILL KEEP
GNRLY DRY CONDS AND VFR CIGS AND VSBYS THRU THE PD. WV DVLPG OVER
THE MS VLY WILL RACE EAST LTR TODAY AND WILL INCRS CLDS OVER AVP
TWRD THE END OF THE PD...BUT CLD DECK SHD REMAIN IN THE VFR
CAT...AND PCPN SHD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFT 12Z.
OUTLOOK...
SAT-SUN NGT...VFR.
MON/TUE...DEEP SRLY FLOW AHEAD OF CNTRL U.S. TROF RESULTING IN
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS DUE TO CIGS/SHRA/BR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN/HEDEN
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
656 PM EDT FRI OCT 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY AND PUSH ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FRONT WILL STALL
TO THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY AND DISSIPATE OVER THE AREA. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE TUESDAY AND CROSS EASTERN
NC TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
BEHIND THE FRONT LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 645 PM FRIDAY...THE 3KM HRRR MODEL DOING A GOOD JOB WITH
CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER ASSOCIATED
WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AHEAD OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT OVER
CENTRAL VIRGINIA. SHORT-TERM MODELS MOVE THE PRECIP SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST INTO OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN CWA. THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD
STABILIZE AND EXPECT ONLY SOME SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT. NO MAJOR
CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST AS THE INCREASE IN SHOWERS COUPLED
WITH A LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD KEEP MINIMUM TEMPS IN THE
MID/UPPER 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
ANOTHER WARM AND MAINLY DRY DAY TO START THE WEEKEND AS SFC FRONT
SLOWLY PUSHES SOUTH INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOME,
MAINLY MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS EXPECTED IN THE FAST ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT BUT LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUPPORT HIGHS AT LEAST INTO THE
LOW TO MID 80S INLAND. WIND OFF COOLER WATER WILL HOLD TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 70S ALONG THE BEACHES. THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
WILL BE INCREASING BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY OVER
NORTHERN AREAS AS THE SFC FRONT MOVES SOUTH AND MARGINAL
INSTABILITY SUGGESTS AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM,
HOWEVER MOISTURE AND THERMODYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL BE LACKING FOR
BOTH HEAVIER RAIN AND SEVERE WEATHER SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 355 PM FRI...THE SFC BOUNDARY BEGINS TO WASHOUT SUN INTO MON
AND WILL CONTINUE A DRYING TREND SUN NIGHT INTO MON AS HIGH PRESSURE
OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND NOSES SOUTH OVER EASTERN NC...ALTHOUGH
WITH ONSHORE FLOW CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER SO WILL MAINTAIN
LOW SLIGHT CHANCE. TEMPS NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY WITH GREATER CLOUD
COVER AND SLIGHTLY LOWER THICKNESSES. MAX TEMPS MID TO UPPER 70S
SUN WARMING BACK TO NEAR 80S MON.
SURFACE FLOW SHIFTS SOUTHEASTERLY TUES AS A ROBUST UPPER TROUGH
DIGS INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
NEAR THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THE LOW WILL PUSH NORTHEAST INTO NEW
ENGLAND AND DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH EASTERN NC SOMETIME TUES
NIGHT INTO WED. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF
THE UPPER TROUGH WITH SEVERAL ENS MEMBERS DEVELOPING A CUT-OFF
LOW TO THE WEST WHICH WILL HAVE TIMING IMPLICATIONS WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. 12Z ECMWF CONTINUES THE 00Z TREND OF A LARGE CUT-
OFF LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE MIDWEST...WITH A MUCH SLOWER FRONTAL
PASSAGE ACROSS EASTERN NC WED INTO WED NIGHT. FOR NOW WILL
DISCOUNT THE ECMWF WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE THOUGH GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY WILL LIMIT POPS TO 40-50 PERCENT TUES AFTERNOON INTO
WED. WILL MAINTAIN MENTION OF THUNDER AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE MODEST INSTABILITY AND STRONG SHEAR AND HELICITY...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STORMS TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE AHEAD OF
AND ALONG THE FRONT. STRONG SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST OVER THE
REGION WED NIGHT INTO THURS. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL AGAIN
PUSH TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY TUES WITH LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES BUILDING 1390-1400 METERS...THEN NEAR NORMAL WED/THURS
AS THICKNESSES LOWER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. MAX TEMPS EXPECTED
TO RANGE IN THE LOWER 80S TUES WITH MID 70S WED AND THURS.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 650 PM FRIDAY...CONTINUE MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE. INCREASING CLOUDS COUPLED WITH
A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD KEEP MOST FOG AT BAY OVERNIGHT. SOME
OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR FOG AT KISO/KPGV/KOAJ
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...BUT CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICIT PROGS
SHOW A MINIMAL THREAT AND WILL KEEP OUT. CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
INCREASE WITH A THREAT OF SHOWERS BY LATE IN THE DAY.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 350 PM FRI...PREDOMINANT VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
A WEAK BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE REGION INTO SUNDAY
BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES FOR PRECIP...HOWEVER SOME UNCERTAINTY
CONTINUES WITH REGARDS TO TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. SURFACE FLOW SHIFTS SOUTHEASTERLY MON ALLOWING TEMPS AND
DEWPOINTS TO INCREASE...WITH AN ISOLATED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TUES AND COULD SEE
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION LATER IN THE DAY TUES.
BRIEF OVERNIGHT FOG/STRATUS MAY BE AN ISSUE EARLY MON AND TUES
MORNING THOUGH LIGHT SURFACE MIXING MAY PRECLUDE FOG DEVELOPMENT.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFFSHORE AND SLOW-MOVING FRONT
SLIDES SOUTH FROM VIRGINIA. SOUTH WINDS CURRENTLY AT 10 TO
OCCASIONALLY 15 KNOTS WITH INCREASE BY LATE TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY WITH SW WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. WINDS VEER TO NORTHERLY
LATE IN THE DAY AS THE FRONT MOVES SLOWLY SOUTH. SEAS ARE
CURRENTLY 2 TO 3 FEET...BUT WILL BUILD AT 4 TO 5 FEET BEHIND THE
FRONT ON SATURDAY.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 350 PM FRI...EXPECT N/NE WINDS AROUND 10-20 KT DEVELOP AFTER
FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH THE STRONGEST EXPECTED EARLY SUN MORNING. THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WASHOUT LATE SUN WITH SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING BY MON. SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW INCREASES TO 15-25 KT
TUES...WHICH VEERS TO SLY AND POSSIBLY AS STRONG AS 30 KT TUE NIGHT
AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. SEAS BUILD UP TO 5 FT LATE ACROSS A
LARGE PORTION OF THE OUTER WATERS AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE SAT INTO SUN.
SEAS SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY MON...BUT ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE QUICKLY
TUES AS SE/SLY FLOW INCREASES PEAKING AROUND 6-8 FT AND POSSIBLY
HIGHER LATE TUES NIGHT. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS AND WAVEWATCH III IN
DESCENT AGREEMENT FOR THE LONG TERM THOUGH THE LOCAL SWAN/NWPS IS
PREFERRED IN NORTHEASTERLY FLOW SUN.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...CTC/DAG
MARINE...CTC/DAG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
315 PM EDT FRI OCT 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT...
THEN DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY. A SERIES OF UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM FRIDAY...
BAND OF CONVECTION NOW STRETCHING ACROSS THE VA/WV BORDER SOUTHWEST
THROUGH TN HAS HAD A TOUGH TIME MAKING EASTWARD PROGRESS TOWARD THE
CWA THUS FAR... AS THE MEAN STEERING FLOW HAS KEPT MOST OF THE
PRECIP TRACKING TO THE NE. PATCHY SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP OVER THE NE
PIEDMONT WITHIN WEAK INSTABILITY... ALTHOUGH UPSCALE GROWTH OF THESE
ARE UNLIKELY GIVEN THEIR MOVEMENT INTO A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.
WILL RETAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA THROUGH THIS EVENING... FOLLOWING THE PATH OF HIGH
MAGNITUDES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT... AND HIGH CHANCES TO
LOW-END LIKELY POPS NEAR THE VA BORDER... FOLLOWING INDICATIONS FROM
HIGH-RES MODEL GUIDANCE AND CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS... IN
ADDITION TO SREF PROBABILITIES WHICH ARE QUITE LOW ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE HIGHWAY 64 CORRIDOR. THE LATEST HRRR RUNS SHOW THE BEST
COVERAGE NEAR THE VA BORDER DURING THE EVENING HOURS... SO WILL
MAXIMIZE THE POPS DURING THIS TIME... ALLOWING THEM TO SLIP BACK TO
LOWER CHANCES IN THE NW AND FAR NORTH ONLY OVERNIGHT AS THE INITIAL
SURFACE LOW... EXPECTED TO FORM OVER SW VA BY EARLY EVENING...
TRACKS OFF TO THE ENE. BASED ON CURRENT AND UPSTREAM DEWPOINTS AND
MODEL GUIDANCE TRENDS... AND CONSIDERING THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL
HOLD NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT... WILL KEEP LOWS
QUITE MILD... 62-66. -GIH
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM FRIDAY...
FOR SAT/SAT NIGHT: STILL ANTICIPATE BACKDOOR FRONTAL PASSAGE MID
AFTERNOON SAT THROUGH EARLY EVENING... AS THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
NOW OVER NM TRACKS TO THE ENE TOWARD THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE
FRONT`S SOUTHWARD PUSH WILL ALSO BE ENCOURAGED BY DIGGING SHORTWAVE
ENERGY OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WHICH WILL ALLOW COOL AND DENSE
HIGH PRESSURE CROSSING THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO NY/PA BY SAT NIGHT
TO BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO VA/NC. CONVECTION ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
FRONT APPEARS FAIRLY CERTAIN... ALTHOUGH DESPITE IMPROVING DEEP
LAYER SHEAR FROM AROUND 25 KTS TO AS MUCH AS 45-50 KTS FROM SAT
THROUGH SAT NIGHT... MUCAPE IS MARGINAL... BELOW 1000 J/KG ON THE
GFS AND BELOW 1500 J/KG ON THE NAM. NEVERTHELESS... DYNAMIC FORCING
FOR ASCENT WITH THE APPROACHING DPVA ALONG WITH WEAK UPPER
DIVERGENCE SHOULD PARTIALLY MAKE UP FOR THE THERMODYNAMIC
DEFICIENCIES. WILL KEEP SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING POPS AS GOOD CHANCE
FOR NOW... BUT WE MAY NEED TO GO UP TO LIKELY IF MODEL TRENDS
PERSIST. PRECIP COVERAGE SHOULD DROP SOUTH AND DECREASE SAT NIGHT
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND SOUTHWARD PUSH OF THE FRONT. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS TO FORM BEHIND THE FRONT SAT NIGHT.
THICKNESSES AND STATISTICAL GUIDANCE POINT TO HIGHS SAT FROM 77 NEAR
THE VA BORDER TO 85 IN THE FAR SOUTH... GIVEN THE DELAY IN FRONTAL
PASSAGE UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. LOWS 53-61. -GIH
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT: WITH THE FRONT STILL DRAPED ACROSS THE
AREA...THE MODERATELY STRONG SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL BE
IN A FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR A HYBRID COLD AIR DAMMING EVENT ON
SUNDAY. THAT BEING SAID...ISENTROPIC LIFT IS VERY WEAK AT BEST AND
THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A HUGE RAIN PRODUCING EVENT. CHANCES FOR
RAIN WILL BE BEST IN THE TRIAD WITH TOTALS OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR
LESS WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE SOUTHEAST. IT WILL HOWEVER BE MOSTLY
CLOUDY IF NOT OVERCAST AND MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL CERTAINLY
SUFFER. EXPECT A MAX T GRADIENT OF TEN DEGREES OR SO WITH LOWER 60S
IN THE NW TO LOWER 70S IN THE SOUTHEAST. SUNDAY NIGHT THE HIGH
BEGINS TO PULL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE
FRONT TO ALSO RETREAT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT. THIS WILL KEEP LOWS
MODERATED WITH UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S EXPECTED. -RTE
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM FRIDAY...
A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND DOWN INTO
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER MO/IL
STRENGTHENS AND MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
COUPLED WITH EXITING HIGH PRESSURE OFF OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL
PUT CENTRAL NC IN A SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME AS THE CAD BREAKS DOWN
WITH LOW PRESSURE TO THE NW. DEPENDING HOW LONG THAT TAKES WILL
DETERMINE MAX TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CWA WITH THE TRIAD LIKELY IN
THE MIDDLE 60S WITH UPPER 70S IN THE EAST.
TUESDAY WILL FEATURE THE APPROACH OF A VIGOROUS COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT LAKES LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM IS STILL THE BIGGEST ISSUE WITH BOTH DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF
THE GFS AND ECMWF STICKING TO THEIR GUNS. GFS CONTINUES TO BE FASTER
WITH THE EC BECOMING MORE CUT OFF AND LESS PROGRESSIVE AS A RESULT.
LOOKING AT THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE AS A WHOLE WITH A PLANETARY WAVE
NUMBER OF 5 AND A WEAK OMEGA BLOCK DOWNSTREAM...THE PATTERN SHOULD
STILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS FROM WEST TO EAST. THEREFORE STARTING TO
THINK THE ECMWF COULD BE A BIT TOO SLOW WITH THE SYSTEM. THE TRUTH
WILL PROBABLY BE BETWEEN THE TWO RUNS BUT WILL FOCUS MORE ON THE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/TUESDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME FOR POSSIBLE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THIS IS STILL LOOKING LIKE A HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE EVENT.
PLACEMENT IS STILL GOOD FOR THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 50 KT 850
MB JET AS WELL AS A NEAR 120 KT UPPER LEVEL JET ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF FORCING FOR ANY CONVECTION
THAT DOES GET STARTED ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS NOW CONFINED TO BELOW
500 J/KG. WHILE THIS WILL BE A HEAVY RAIN EVENT THE PROGRESSION OF
THE FRONT IS FAST ENOUGH THAT QPF TOTALS MAY BE RESTRAINED TO 1 TO 2
INCHES OR SO. IT LOOKS LIKE THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE THERE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE
MOST LIKELY SEVERE THREAT AND A BRIEF WINDOW FOR ROTATION IN
DISCREET CELLS AHEAD OF THE FRONT TUES AFT/EVE. INCREASED WARM AIR
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL HELP TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE
MID 70S IN THE TRIAD WITH LOW 80S ACROSS THE I-95 CORRIDOR. TUESDAY
NIGHT THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA BUT
THE REAL SURGE IN COLD AIR WILL PROBABLY NOT MAKE IT INTO THE AREA
UNTIL WEDNESDAY...LEAVING LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S TUESDAY
NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THERE ARE KEY DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS
WITH THE ECMWF LEAVING THE LOW CUT OFF AND HOVERING AROUND THE OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THE GFS CARRIES THE LOW OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST AND REPLACES IT WITH A SURFACE RIGE BUILDING OUT OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND UP THE EAST COAST. THE GENERAL TREND WILL BE
FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY GRADUALLY MODERATING FROM THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S INTO THE MID TO POSSIBLY UPPER 70S BY FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM FRIDAY...
AT RDU/RWI/FAY... HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST
THIS EVENING. AT INT/GSO HOWEVER... WHILE VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS... THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
STORM OR TWO WILL BE INCREASING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING
THROUGH THIS EVENING... WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE. BY LATE EVENING AT
INT/GSO... THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF IFR/LIFR CIGS IN STRATUS
DEVELOPING... WITH MVFR OR IFR VSBYS... AND LOWERING RAIN CHANCES.
LATE TONIGHT... AFTER 08Z... IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS REMAIN POSSIBLE AT
INT/GSO... WHILE AT RDU... THERE IS A SMALLER BUT NON-ZERO CHANCE OF
IFR/LIFR STRATUS DEVELOPING. ANY SUB-VFR CIGS SHOULD HOLD UNTIL
AROUND 14Z OR 15Z SAT... WHEN THEY ARE LIKELY TO MIX OUT AS NEAR-
SURFACE WINDS STRENGTHEN A LITTLE FROM THE SW OR WSW... AND WE
SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD
(AFTER 16Z). OVERALL... THE SHOWER/STORM CHANCES THROUGH 18Z SAT ARE
GREATEST AT INT/GSO AND MAINLY LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
EVENING... WITH A MUCH LOWER CHANCE AT RDU/RWI... AND FAY SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY DRY. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY FROM THE SOUTH
OR SSW... SHIFTING AROUND TO BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST OR WEST SAT
MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH TOWARD THE SSE THROUGH
CENTRAL NC SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR TONIGHT AFTER 06Z TONIGHT THROUGH ABOUT 13Z OR 14Z SAT
MAINLY AT INT/GSO... AS WINDS AT 1200-1800 FT AGL WILL INCREASE TO
AROUND 30-35 KTS WITH SURFACE WINDS UNDER 10 KTS.
LOOKING BEYOND 18Z SAT... SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WITHIN SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING. AVIATORS SHOULD BE ALERT
FOR THE SURFACE WIND SHIFT ACCOMPANYING THE COLD FRONT PUSHING
TOWARD THE SSE THROUGH THE AREA SAT. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
VEER TO NORTH THEN QUICKLY TO BE FROM THE NE. POOR AVIATION
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY SAT NIGHT-SUN NIGHT WITH SUB-VFR (MAINLY
IFR/LIFR) CIGS LIKELY THROUGH THIS PERIOD. SOME IMPROVEMENT TO
MVFR/VFR IS EXPECTED BY LATE MON. BUT IFR STRATUS MAY RETURN MON
NIGHT. A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM WILL SWEEP INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST TUE... CREATING STRONG/GUSTY AND SHIFTING WINDS AND PERIODS OF
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN/STORMS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN WED
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. -GIH
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD/ELLIS
LONG TERM...ELLIS
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
252 PM EDT FRI OCT 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT...
THEN DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY. A SERIES OF UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM FRIDAY...
BAND OF CONVECTION NOW STRETCHING ACROSS THE VA/WV BORDER SOUTHWEST
THROUGH TN HAS HAD A TOUGH TIME MAKING EASTWARD PROGRESS TOWARD THE
CWA THUS FAR... AS THE MEAN STEERING FLOW HAS KEPT MOST OF THE
PRECIP TRACKING TO THE NE. PATCHY SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP OVER THE NE
PIEDMONT WITHIN WEAK INSTABILITY... ALTHOUGH UPSCALE GROWTH OF THESE
ARE UNLIKELY GIVEN THEIR MOVEMENT INTO A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.
WILL RETAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA THROUGH THIS EVENING... FOLLOWING THE PATH OF HIGH
MAGNITUDES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT... AND HIGH CHANCES TO
LOW-END LIKELY POPS NEAR THE VA BORDER... FOLLOWING INDICATIONS FROM
HIGH-RES MODEL GUIDANCE AND CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS... IN
ADDITION TO SREF PROBABILITIES WHICH ARE QUITE LOW ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE HIGHWAY 64 CORRIDOR. THE LATEST HRRR RUNS SHOW THE BEST
COVERAGE NEAR THE VA BORDER DURING THE EVENING HOURS... SO WILL
MAXIMIZE THE POPS DURING THIS TIME... ALLOWING THEM TO SLIP BACK TO
LOWER CHANCES IN THE NW AND FAR NORTH ONLY OVERNIGHT AS THE INITIAL
SURFACE LOW... EXPECTED TO FORM OVER SW VA BY EARLY EVENING...
TRACKS OFF TO THE ENE. BASED ON CURRENT AND UPSTREAM DEWPOINTS AND
MODEL GUIDANCE TRENDS... AND CONSIDERING THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL
HOLD NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT... WILL KEEP LOWS
QUITE MILD... 62-66. -GIH
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...
SATURDAY...STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO THE EXPECTED SHOWER COVERAGE.
SOME MODELS MAINTAIN BETTER LOW-MID LEVEL CONFLUENCE ACROSS VA WHILE
SOME (GFS) DRIFT THE 850-700MB TROUGH FARTHER SOUTH INTO NC SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THE TRUTH IS LIKELY SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN THOUGH
CONSIDERING THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION OCCURRING THIS MORNING OVER THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS...FEEL THAT A SOUTHWARD
DRIFT IS MORE PROBABLE. THUS SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN SHOWER
COVERAGE AS THE DAY WEARS ON ACROSS THE NORTH...DRIFTING INTO THE
SOUTHERN PIEDMONT-SANDHILLS BY LATE IN THE DAY OR EARLY EVENING. DUE
TO BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE...WILL KEEP POPS BELOW 50 PERCENT FOR
NOW.
TEMPS SATURDAY DEPENDENT UPON SHOWER COVERAGE. IF SHOWERS MORE
EXTENSIVE THAN CURRENT THINKING...THEN HIGH TEMPS MAY BE AS MUCH AS
3-4 DEGREES COOLER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. LATE DAY ARRIVAL OF
THICKER CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO
RETURN TO THE LOW-MID 80S SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 64. MAX TEMPS MID-UPPER
70S NORTH TO MID 80S FAR SOUTH. -WSS
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING... AS THE SURFACE FRONT SETTLES TO
THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER... SOME QUESTION REMAIN WITH REGARD
TO HOW DEEP THE LOW LEVEL COOL DRY AIR WILL BE AND WHERE WE WILL SEE
CHANCES FOR RAIN BEHIND THE FRONT. STILL THINK WE WILL SEE AT LEAST
SOME PRECIP BEHIND THE FRONT ON SATURDAY NIGHT... DESPITE THE LATEST
NAM AND GFS SHOWING NO PRECIP AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE FRONT PUSHING
FURTHER SOUTH THAN AT THIS TIME LAST NIGHT. THUS... WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY A CHANCE OF RAIN DURING THIS PERIOD... WHICH SHOULD BE THE
START OF A COLD AIR DAMMING AIR MASS. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY DEPENDING
ON THE DEGREE OF COLD DRY AIR ADVECTING INTO THE REGION AT THE
SURFACE... COMBINED WITH POSSIBLE PRECIP FALLING INTO THE DAMMING
AIR MASS. THE OVERALL TREND IS FOR A BIT COOLER... SO WILL TREND THE
LOWS DOWNWARD A BIT FOR SUNDAY MORNING... YIELDING UPPER 50S NORTH
TO LOWER 60S SOUTH.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
U.S. ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT... SETTING THE STAGE FOR CLOUDY AND
COOL CONDITIONS... WITH SOME AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE... BEST
CHANCE IN THE HEART OF THE WEDGE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT.
THINK STATISTICAL GUIDANCE HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE OVERDONE... AND WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ON THE COOL SIDE TO BELOW GUIDANCE. THIS YIELDS HIGH
TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT TO NEAR 70
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. LOWS MONDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S... THUS... NOT MUCH OF DIURNAL RANGE.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO BECOME
MORE AMPLIFIED NEXT WEEK.. WITH A DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY ALONG WITH AN
ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD FRONT. WITH THE COMBINATION OF SOME MID LEVEL
DRYING ON MONDAY AND A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW LIFTING FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY MORNING INTO THE GREAT LATES REGION BY
TUESDAY MORNING... WE WILL LIKELY SEE THE CAD BEGIN TO ERODE... WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING FURTHER EASTWARD AND OFFSHORE OF THE
NORTHEAST U.S. HOWEVER... NWP MODELS TEND TO ERODE THE WEDGE AIR
MASS TOO QUICKLY IN THESE SITUATION. THUS... HAVE TREND HIGH TEMPS
DOWN SOME ON MONDAY... ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT (MAYBE
NOT EVEN ENOUGH)... WITH AT LEAST SOME CONTINUED CHANCES OF PRECIP
IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING ABOVE THE
COOL STABLE AIR MASS. THUS... WILL GO WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S IN THE NW TO UPPER 70S GENERALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF
RALEIGH. (LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR TEMPS THOUGH).
EXPECT WE WILL PROBABLY HAVE SOME SORT OF LINGERING CAD BOUNDARY
ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST PIEDMONT... WITH TEMPS NEAR STEADY THERE
DURING THE PERIOD. THUS... WILL GO WITH LOW TEMPS ON TUESDAY MORNING
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM FRIDAY...
A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND DOWN INTO
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER MO/IL
STRENGTHENS AND MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
COUPLED WITH EXITING HIGH PRESSURE OFF OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL
PUT CENTRAL NC IN A SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME AS THE CAD BREAKS DOWN
WITH LOW PRESSURE TO THE NW. DEPENDING HOW LONG THAT TAKES WILL
DETERMINE MAX TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CWA WITH THE TRIAD LIKELY IN
THE MIDDLE 60S WITH UPPER 70S IN THE EAST.
TUESDAY WILL FEATURE THE APPROACH OF A VIGOROUS COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT LAKES LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM IS STILL THE BIGGEST ISSUE WITH BOTH DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF
THE GFS AND ECMWF STICKING TO THEIR GUNS. GFS CONTINUES TO BE FASTER
WITH THE EC BECOMING MORE CUT OFF AND LESS PROGRESSIVE AS A RESULT.
LOOKING AT THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE AS A WHOLE WITH A PLANETARY WAVE
NUMBER OF 5 AND A WEAK OMEGA BLOCK DOWNSTREAM...THE PATTERN SHOULD
STILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS FROM WEST TO EAST. THEREFORE STARTING TO
THINK THE ECMWF COULD BE A BIT TOO SLOW WITH THE SYSTEM. THE TRUTH
WILL PROBABLY BE BETWEEN THE TWO RUNS BUT WILL FOCUS MORE ON THE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/TUESDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME FOR POSSIBLE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THIS IS STILL LOOKING LIKE A HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE EVENT.
PLACEMENT IS STILL GOOD FOR THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 50 KT 850
MB JET AS WELL AS A NEAR 120 KT UPPER LEVEL JET ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF FORCING FOR ANY CONVECTION
THAT DOES GET STARTED ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS NOW CONFINED TO BELOW
500 J/KG. WHILE THIS WILL BE A HEAVY RAIN EVENT THE PROGRESSION OF
THE FRONT IS FAST ENOUGH THAT QPF TOTALS MAY BE RESTRAINED TO 1 TO 2
INCHES OR SO. IT LOOKS LIKE THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE THERE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE
MOST LIKELY SEVERE THREAT AND A BRIEF WINDOW FOR ROTATION IN
DISCREET CELLS AHEAD OF THE FRONT TUES AFT/EVE. INCREASED WARM AIR
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL HELP TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE
MID 70S IN THE TRIAD WITH LOW 80S ACROSS THE I-95 CORRIDOR. TUESDAY
NIGHT THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA BUT
THE REAL SURGE IN COLD AIR WILL PROBABLY NOT MAKE IT INTO THE AREA
UNTIL WEDNESDAY...LEAVING LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S TUESDAY
NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THERE ARE KEY DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS
WITH THE ECMWF LEAVING THE LOW CUT OFF AND HOVERING AROUND THE OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THE GFS CARRIES THE LOW OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST AND REPLACES IT WITH A SURFACE RIGE BUILDING OUT OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND UP THE EAST COAST. THE GENERAL TREND WILL BE
FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY GRADUALLY MODERATING FROM THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S INTO THE MID TO POSSIBLY UPPER 70S BY FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM FRIDAY...
AT RDU/RWI/FAY... HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST
THIS EVENING. AT INT/GSO HOWEVER... WHILE VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS... THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
STORM OR TWO WILL BE INCREASING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING
THROUGH THIS EVENING... WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE. BY LATE EVENING AT
INT/GSO... THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF IFR/LIFR CIGS IN STRATUS
DEVELOPING... WITH MVFR OR IFR VSBYS... AND LOWERING RAIN CHANCES.
LATE TONIGHT... AFTER 08Z... IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS REMAIN POSSIBLE AT
INT/GSO... WHILE AT RDU... THERE IS A SMALLER BUT NON-ZERO CHANCE OF
IFR/LIFR STRATUS DEVELOPING. ANY SUB-VFR CIGS SHOULD HOLD UNTIL
AROUND 14Z OR 15Z SAT... WHEN THEY ARE LIKELY TO MIX OUT AS NEAR-
SURFACE WINDS STRENGTHEN A LITTLE FROM THE SW OR WSW... AND WE
SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD
(AFTER 16Z). OVERALL... THE SHOWER/STORM CHANCES THROUGH 18Z SAT ARE
GREATEST AT INT/GSO AND MAINLY LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
EVENING... WITH A MUCH LOWER CHANCE AT RDU/RWI... AND FAY SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY DRY. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY FROM THE SOUTH
OR SSW... SHIFTING AROUND TO BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST OR WEST SAT
MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH TOWARD THE SSE THROUGH
CENTRAL NC SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR TONIGHT AFTER 06Z TONIGHT THROUGH ABOUT 13Z OR 14Z SAT
MAINLY AT INT/GSO... AS WINDS AT 1200-1800 FT AGL WILL INCREASE TO
AROUND 30-35 KTS WITH SURFACE WINDS UNDER 10 KTS.
LOOKING BEYOND 18Z SAT... SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WITHIN SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING. AVIATORS SHOULD BE ALERT
FOR THE SURFACE WIND SHIFT ACCOMPANYING THE COLD FRONT PUSHING
TOWARD THE SSE THROUGH THE AREA SAT. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
VEER TO NORTH THEN QUICKLY TO BE FROM THE NE. POOR AVIATION
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY SAT NIGHT-SUN NIGHT WITH SUB-VFR (MAINLY
IFR/LIFR) CIGS LIKELY THROUGH THIS PERIOD. SOME IMPROVEMENT TO
MVFR/VFR IS EXPECTED BY LATE MON. BUT IFR STRATUS MAY RETURN MON
NIGHT. A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM WILL SWEEP INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST TUE... CREATING STRONG/GUSTY AND SHIFTING WINDS AND PERIODS OF
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN/STORMS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN WED
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. -GIH
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KCP/HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...ELLIS
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
240 PM EDT FRI OCT 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT...
THEN DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY. A SERIES OF UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM FRIDAY...
BAND OF CONVECTION NOW STRETCHING ACROSS THE VA/WV BORDER SOUTHWEST
THROUGH TN HAS HAD A TOUGH TIME MAKING EASTWARD PROGRESS TOWARD THE
CWA THUS FAR... AS THE MEAN STEERING FLOW HAS KEPT MOST OF THE
PRECIP TRACKING TO THE NE. PATCHY SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP OVER THE NE
PIEDMONT WITHIN WEAK INSTABILITY... ALTHOUGH UPSCALE GROWTH OF THESE
ARE UNLIKELY GIVEN THEIR MOVEMENT INTO A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.
WILL RETAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA THROUGH THIS EVENING... FOLLOWING THE PATH OF HIGH
MAGNITUDES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT... AND HIGH CHANCES TO
LOW-END LIKELY POPS NEAR THE VA BORDER... FOLLOWING INDICATIONS FROM
HIGH-RES MODEL GUIDANCE AND CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS... IN
ADDITION TO SREF PROBABILITIES WHICH ARE QUITE LOW ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE HIGHWAY 64 CORRIDOR. THE LATEST HRRR RUNS SHOW THE BEST
COVERAGE NEAR THE VA BORDER DURING THE EVENING HOURS... SO WILL
MAXIMIZE THE POPS DURING THIS TIME... ALLOWING THEM TO SLIP BACK TO
LOWER CHANCES IN THE NW AND FAR NORTH ONLY OVERNIGHT AS THE INITIAL
SURFACE LOW... EXPECTED TO FORM OVER SW VA BY EARLY EVENING...
TRACKS OFF TO THE ENE. BASED ON CURRENT AND UPSTREAM DEWPOINTS AND
MODEL GUIDANCE TRENDS... AND CONSIDERING THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL
HOLD NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT... WILL KEEP LOWS
QUITE MILD... 62-66. -GIH
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...
SATURDAY...STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO THE EXPECTED SHOWER COVERAGE.
SOME MODELS MAINTAIN BETTER LOW-MID LEVEL CONFLUENCE ACROSS VA WHILE
SOME (GFS) DRIFT THE 850-700MB TROUGH FARTHER SOUTH INTO NC SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THE TRUTH IS LIKELY SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN THOUGH
CONSIDERING THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION OCCURRING THIS MORNING OVER THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS...FEEL THAT A SOUTHWARD
DRIFT IS MORE PROBABLE. THUS SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN SHOWER
COVERAGE AS THE DAY WEARS ON ACROSS THE NORTH...DRIFTING INTO THE
SOUTHERN PIEDMONT-SANDHILLS BY LATE IN THE DAY OR EARLY EVENING. DUE
TO BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE...WILL KEEP POPS BELOW 50 PERCENT FOR
NOW.
TEMPS SATURDAY DEPENDENT UPON SHOWER COVERAGE. IF SHOWERS MORE
EXTENSIVE THAN CURRENT THINKING...THEN HIGH TEMPS MAY BE AS MUCH AS
3-4 DEGREES COOLER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. LATE DAY ARRIVAL OF
THICKER CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO
RETURN TO THE LOW-MID 80S SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 64. MAX TEMPS MID-UPPER
70S NORTH TO MID 80S FAR SOUTH. -WSS
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING... AS THE SURFACE FRONT SETTLES TO
THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER... SOME QUESTION REMAIN WITH REGARD
TO HOW DEEP THE LOW LEVEL COOL DRY AIR WILL BE AND WHERE WE WILL SEE
CHANCES FOR RAIN BEHIND THE FRONT. STILL THINK WE WILL SEE AT LEAST
SOME PRECIP BEHIND THE FRONT ON SATURDAY NIGHT... DESPITE THE LATEST
NAM AND GFS SHOWING NO PRECIP AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE FRONT PUSHING
FURTHER SOUTH THAN AT THIS TIME LAST NIGHT. THUS... WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY A CHANCE OF RAIN DURING THIS PERIOD... WHICH SHOULD BE THE
START OF A COLD AIR DAMMING AIR MASS. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY DEPENDING
ON THE DEGREE OF COLD DRY AIR ADVECTING INTO THE REGION AT THE
SURFACE... COMBINED WITH POSSIBLE PRECIP FALLING INTO THE DAMMING
AIR MASS. THE OVERALL TREND IS FOR A BIT COOLER... SO WILL TREND THE
LOWS DOWNWARD A BIT FOR SUNDAY MORNING... YIELDING UPPER 50S NORTH
TO LOWER 60S SOUTH.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
U.S. ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT... SETTING THE STAGE FOR CLOUDY AND
COOL CONDITIONS... WITH SOME AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE... BEST
CHANCE IN THE HEART OF THE WEDGE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT.
THINK STATISTICAL GUIDANCE HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE OVERDONE... AND WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ON THE COOL SIDE TO BELOW GUIDANCE. THIS YIELDS HIGH
TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT TO NEAR 70
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. LOWS MONDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S... THUS... NOT MUCH OF DIURNAL RANGE.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO BECOME
MORE AMPLIFIED NEXT WEEK.. WITH A DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY ALONG WITH AN
ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD FRONT. WITH THE COMBINATION OF SOME MID LEVEL
DRYING ON MONDAY AND A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW LIFTING FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY MORNING INTO THE GREAT LATES REGION BY
TUESDAY MORNING... WE WILL LIKELY SEE THE CAD BEGIN TO ERODE... WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING FURTHER EASTWARD AND OFFSHORE OF THE
NORTHEAST U.S. HOWEVER... NWP MODELS TEND TO ERODE THE WEDGE AIR
MASS TOO QUICKLY IN THESE SITUATION. THUS... HAVE TREND HIGH TEMPS
DOWN SOME ON MONDAY... ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT (MAYBE
NOT EVEN ENOUGH)... WITH AT LEAST SOME CONTINUED CHANCES OF PRECIP
IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING ABOVE THE
COOL STABLE AIR MASS. THUS... WILL GO WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S IN THE NW TO UPPER 70S GENERALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF
RALEIGH. (LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR TEMPS THOUGH).
EXPECT WE WILL PROBABLY HAVE SOME SORT OF LINGERING CAD BOUNDARY
ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST PIEDMONT... WITH TEMPS NEAR STEADY THERE
DURING THE PERIOD. THUS... WILL GO WITH LOW TEMPS ON TUESDAY MORNING
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 252 AM FRIDAY...
MAIN FORECAST FOCUS WILL BE ON THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF A L/W TROUGH
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. AND ATTENDANT STRONG COLD FRONT. 00Z MODEL
GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO BETTER CONSENSUS WITH THE TIMING THOUGH GFS
STILL A TAD FASTER THAN THE SLIGHTLY SLUGGISH ECMWF. STILL WITH THIS
PARTICULAR RUN...LATE TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY IS NOW
TARGETED AS BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL NC.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON TUESDAY EXPECT BREEZY AND WARM CONDITIONS WITH
MAX TEMPS 75-80 NW AND LOWER 80S ELSEWHERE. IF SUNSHINE IS MORE
PREVALENT TUESDAY THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED....COULD EASILY SEE MID
80S ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 1 (UPPER 80S SE?). STILL APPEARS A
THREAT FOR STRONG-SEVERE STORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY IF
LOW LEVEL AIR MASS DESTABILIZES DUE TO INSOLATION TUESDAY MORNING-
EARLY AFTERNOON. SHEAR PARAMETERS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. ALSO...WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE EXISTENCE
OF ANY LINGERING CAD WEDGE BOUNDARY OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT
(EXISTENCE OF THIS FEATURE WOULD ENHANCE LOW LEVEL HELICITY).
HAVE INTRODUCED A SLIGHTLY QUICKER EXIT OF THE CLOUDS/CONVECTION
WEDNESDAY WITH IMPROVING WEATHER CONDITIONS SW-NE LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS WEDNESDAY TRICKY. GFS
DEPICTS 805MB FLOW WITH A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT THOUGH 850MB TEMPS
DROP 12 DEG C WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE 850MB TROUGH. PARTIAL CLEARING
MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO REBOUND INITIALLY THEN TEMPS COOL OFF LATE IN THE
DAY. MAX TEMPS NEAR 70 NW TO MID 70S SE AFTER MIN TEMPS TUESDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID 50S NW TO LOWER 60S SE.
DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH MAX
TEMPS THURSDAY 4-6 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE MID-UPPER
60S NORTH TO AROUND 70 SOUTH.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM FRIDAY...
AT RDU/RWI/FAY... HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST
THIS EVENING. AT INT/GSO HOWEVER... WHILE VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS... THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
STORM OR TWO WILL BE INCREASING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING
THROUGH THIS EVENING... WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE. BY LATE EVENING AT
INT/GSO... THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF IFR/LIFR CIGS IN STRATUS
DEVELOPING... WITH MVFR OR IFR VSBYS... AND LOWERING RAIN CHANCES.
LATE TONIGHT... AFTER 08Z... IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS REMAIN POSSIBLE AT
INT/GSO... WHILE AT RDU... THERE IS A SMALLER BUT NON-ZERO CHANCE OF
IFR/LIFR STRATUS DEVELOPING. ANY SUB-VFR CIGS SHOULD HOLD UNTIL
AROUND 14Z OR 15Z SAT... WHEN THEY ARE LIKELY TO MIX OUT AS NEAR-
SURFACE WINDS STRENGTHEN A LITTLE FROM THE SW OR WSW... AND WE
SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD
(AFTER 16Z). OVERALL... THE SHOWER/STORM CHANCES THROUGH 18Z SAT ARE
GREATEST AT INT/GSO AND MAINLY LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
EVENING... WITH A MUCH LOWER CHANCE AT RDU/RWI... AND FAY SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY DRY. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY FROM THE SOUTH
OR SSW... SHIFTING AROUND TO BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST OR WEST SAT
MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH TOWARD THE SSE THROUGH
CENTRAL NC SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR TONIGHT AFTER 06Z TONIGHT THROUGH ABOUT 13Z OR 14Z SAT
MAINLY AT INT/GSO... AS WINDS AT 1200-1800 FT AGL WILL INCREASE TO
AROUND 30-35 KTS WITH SURFACE WINDS UNDER 10 KTS.
LOOKING BEYOND 18Z SAT... SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WITHIN SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING. AVIATORS SHOULD BE ALERT
FOR THE SURFACE WIND SHIFT ACCOMPANYING THE COLD FRONT PUSHING
TOWARD THE SSE THROUGH THE AREA SAT. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
VEER TO NORTH THEN QUICKLY TO BE FROM THE NE. POOR AVIATION
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY SAT NIGHT-SUN NIGHT WITH SUB-VFR (MAINLY
IFR/LIFR) CIGS LIKELY THROUGH THIS PERIOD. SOME IMPROVEMENT TO
MVFR/VFR IS EXPECTED BY LATE MON. BUT IFR STRATUS MAY RETURN MON
NIGHT. A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM WILL SWEEP INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST TUE... CREATING STRONG/GUSTY AND SHIFTING WINDS AND PERIODS OF
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN/STORMS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN WED
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. -GIH
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KCP/HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...WSS
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
703 PM EDT FRI OCT 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS OCCURRING AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY. AS THE
HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD ON SUNDAY IT WILL ALLOW A WARM FRONT TO MOVE
NORTHWARD ACROSS LAKE ERIE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
ADJUSTED THE CLOUD COVER FOR THIS EVENING MADE IT MORE CLOUDY AND KEPT
THE LOW THREAT OF SHOWERS OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS PER THE RADAR AND THE HRRR MODEL. THE AMOUNT OF
DECREASE IN THE CLOUD COVER IS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION. NORTHWEST
OHIO WHERE THE FROST ADVISORY HAS A CHANCE OF BECOMING PARTLY
CLOUDY. OTHERWISE SOME THINNING OF THE CLOUDS MAY OCCUR BUT NOT A
CLEARING. NO CHANGE TO THE LOWS OR ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD NEAR THE TENNESSEE
RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL SPREAD SOME THICKER CLOUD COVER ACROSS
THE COUNTY WARNING AREA THIS EVENING WITH A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTH. CLOUD COVER WILL THEN
SLOWLY DECREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT. IT APPEARS ENOUGH DRY AIR...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL MOVE INTO NW OHIO TO RAISE THE CONCERN FOR AREAS OF
FROST. HAVE GONE WITH A FROST ADVISORY ACROSS THIS REGION FOR LATE
TONIGHT.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL VARY FROM WEST TO EAST AND WILL ALL HING ON THE
THICKNESS OF THE CLOUD COVER. CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS SHOULD
HOLD ON TO THE CLOUD COVER TO KEEP LOWS WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF
40. NW OHIO WILL SEE LOWS DIP INTO THE MIDDLE 30S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPDATED SOME OF THE SKY COVER GRIDS AND WORDING FOR SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
COOLER AIR WILL BE SPILLING ACROSS LAKE ERIE ON SATURDAY WHICH
RAISES CONCERNS ABOUT THE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE THAT WILL
OCCUR...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NE OHIO INTO NW PA. AS THE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING IT
APPEARS THERE WILL BE A LARGE PORTION OF INLAND LOCATIONS TO SEE
FROST DEVELOP. IF ENOUGH DRY AIR BUILDS INTO EXTREME NE OHIO AND
NW PA TO ERODE ANY LAKE CLOUDINESS THIS REGION COULD DIP BELOW 32
DEGREES. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO WITH A FREEZE WATCH AT THIS
POINT BUT WILL MENTION IT IN THE HWO.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SWING AROUND TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ON
SUNDAY. THIS WARM ADVECTION WILL AT LEAST INCREASE THE CLOUD COVER
OVER THE REGION WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AFTER THE WARM FRONT SURGES NORTH OF LAKE
ERIE ON MONDAY IT APPEARS THAT RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE. THERE
IS UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAST THIS WILL OCCUR SO HAVE KEPT CHANCE
POPS IN THE FORECAST INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THERE MAY BE A
PERIOD DO DRY CONDITIONS IF THE WARM FRONT REALLY CAN LIFT NORTH
OF LAKE ERIE BY MONDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A LITTLE EACH DAY OF THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 MONDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FULL LATITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE
AREA ON TUESDAY. MODELS STILL SHOWING SOME SPREAD WITH THE GFS ON
THE FASTER END OF THE SPECTRUM WITH RAIN QUICKLY MOVING EAST OF THE
AREA EVEN BY TUESDAY EVENING. THE ECMWF IS THE SLOWEST OF THE MODELS
AND TRIES TO CLOSE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF TO OUR WEST WITH
WIDESPREAD RAIN LINGERING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO
WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME THE GFS SEEMS TO BE WAY TOO FAST AND WILL
LEAN THE FORECAST IN THE DIRECTION OF THE GEM WHICH OFFERS A
COMPROMISE WITH RESPECT TO TIMING. ULTIMATELY WILL NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE A SOLUTION MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF GIVEN THE AMPLITUDE OF
THE TROUGH AND NEXT PIECE OF JET ENERGY COMING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. THE FORECAST STILL CALLS FOR RAIN ON TUESDAY
ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE MORE LIKE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR NE OH/NW PA. WILL
CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST ALTHOUGH
EXPECTING THE INSTABILITY TO GET CUT-OFF OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
AS THE SURFACE LOW OCCLUDES. SHEAR WILL BE HIGH WITH A STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW BUT INSTABILITY SHOULD BE A
LIMITING FACTOR FOR SEVERE WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHEST IN
THE EAST AHEAD OF THE RAIN ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS NEAR 70...TAPERING
DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S IN NW OHIO.
THE FORECAST THROUGH MID-WEEK IS A BLENDED SOLUTIONS WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY FOR MOST
AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK BELOW NORMAL INTO THE UPPER 50S
WITH THE COOLEST AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM BEING CUT-OFF NORTH
OF THE GREAT LAKES. SHOWERS ARE LIMITED TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY BUT
MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO ALL AREAS IF THE LOW DOES CLOSE OFF.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL KEEP RAIN SHOWERS SOUTH
OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. ONLY HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS NRN OHIO
AND NWRN PA THIS EVENING. MODELS SHOW THIS TO DECREASE THROUGH THE
NIGHT. NORTH FLOW OFF LAKE ERIE HOWEVER COULD BRING IN LAKE
INDUCED MVFR CIGS AROUND KCLE AND KERI HOWEVER. EXPECT THIS TO MIX
OUT THROUGH THE LATE MORNING IF IT DEVELOPS HOWEVER WITH ALL THE
DRY AIR IN PLACE SATURDAY. LAST NIGHT FOG DEVELOPED MFD CAK AND
YNG. MODELS HINTING AT MVFR VISIBILITIES AGAIN. WENT AHEAD AND PUT
IN WITH POSSIBILITY OF IFR AROUND DAWN AS WELL.
.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. NON VFR
SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE AREA IN RAIN ON TUESDAY AND LINGERING
INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED WEST OF THE GREAT LAKES WITH A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY OVERNIGHT.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS WITH 1 TO 3 FEET
WAVES...THEN DECREASE ON SATURDAY AS THE HIGH BUILDS TO THE EAST.
WINDS WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY ON SUNDAY THEN SHIFT AROUND TO THE
SOUTH ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT.
DESPITE A STRONG WIND FIELD ALOFT ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...EXPECT
STABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE LAKE TO LIMIT MIXING SO THE FORECAST
ONLY CALLS FOR 10 TO 20 KNOTS OUT OF THE SOUTH. A COLD FRONT WILL
EVENTUALLY MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE DURING THE MID-WEEK TIME FRAME AND
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED AS WESTERLY WINDS INCREASE.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR OHZ003-006-
008-017-018-027.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA/MULLEN
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...KEC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
629 PM EDT FRI OCT 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS OCCURRING AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY. AS THE
HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD ON SUNDAY IT WILL ALLOW A WARM FRONT TO MOVE
NORTHWARD ACROSS LAKE ERIE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
ADJUSTED THE CLOUD COVER FOR THIS EVENING MADE IT MORE CLOUDY AND KEPT
THE LOW THREAT OF SHOWERS OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS PER THE RADAR AND THE HRRR MODEL. THE AMOUNT OF
DECREASE IN THE CLOUD COVER IS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION. NORTHWEST
OHIO WHERE THE FROST ADVISORY HAS A CHANCE OF BECOMING PARTLY
CLOUDY. OTHERWISE SOME THINNING OF THE CLOUDS MAY OCCUR BUT NOT A
CLEARING. NO CHANGE TO THE LOWS OR ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD NEAR THE TENNESSEE
RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL SPREAD SOME THICKER CLOUD COVER ACROSS
THE COUNTY WARNING AREA THIS EVENING WITH A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTH. CLOUD COVER WILL THEN
SLOWLY DECREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT. IT APPEARS ENOUGH DRY AIR...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL MOVE INTO NW OHIO TO RAISE THE CONCERN FOR AREAS OF
FROST. HAVE GONE WITH A FROST ADVISORY ACROSS THIS REGION FOR LATE
TONIGHT.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL VARY FROM WEST TO EAST AND WILL ALL HING ON THE
THICKNESS OF THE CLOUD COVER. CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS SHOULD
HOLD ON TO THE CLOUD COVER TO KEEP LOWS WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF
40. NW OHIO WILL SEE LOWS DIP INTO THE MIDDLE 30S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPDATED SOME OF THE SKY COVER GRIDS AND WORDING FOR SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
COOLER AIR WILL BE SPILLING ACROSS LAKE ERIE ON SATURDAY WHICH
RAISES CONCERNS ABOUT THE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE THAT WILL
OCCUR...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NE OHIO INTO NW PA. AS THE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING IT
APPEARS THERE WILL BE A LARGE PORTION OF INLAND LOCATIONS TO SEE
FROST DEVELOP. IF ENOUGH DRY AIR BUILDS INTO EXTREME NE OHIO AND
NW PA TO ERODE ANY LAKE CLOUDINESS THIS REGION COULD DIP BELOW 32
DEGREES. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO WITH A FREEZE WATCH AT THIS
POINT BUT WILL MENTION IT IN THE HWO.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SWING AROUND TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ON
SUNDAY. THIS WARM ADVECTION WILL AT LEAST INCREASE THE CLOUD COVER
OVER THE REGION WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AFTER THE WARM FRONT SURGES NORTH OF LAKE
ERIE ON MONDAY IT APPEARS THAT RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE. THERE
IS UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAST THIS WILL OCCUR SO HAVE KEPT CHANCE
POPS IN THE FORECAST INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THERE MAY BE A
PERIOD DO DRY CONDITIONS IF THE WARM FRONT REALLY CAN LIFT NORTH
OF LAKE ERIE BY MONDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A LITTLE EACH DAY OF THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 MONDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FULL LATITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE
AREA ON TUESDAY. MODELS STILL SHOWING SOME SPREAD WITH THE GFS ON
THE FASTER END OF THE SPECTRUM WITH RAIN QUICKLY MOVING EAST OF THE
AREA EVEN BY TUESDAY EVENING. THE ECMWF IS THE SLOWEST OF THE MODELS
AND TRIES TO CLOSE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF TO OUR WEST WITH
WIDESPREAD RAIN LINGERING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO
WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME THE GFS SEEMS TO BE WAY TOO FAST AND WILL
LEAN THE FORECAST IN THE DIRECTION OF THE GEM WHICH OFFERS A
COMPROMISE WITH RESPECT TO TIMING. ULTIMATELY WILL NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE A SOLUTION MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF GIVEN THE AMPLITUDE OF
THE TROUGH AND NEXT PIECE OF JET ENERGY COMING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. THE FORECAST STILL CALLS FOR RAIN ON TUESDAY
ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE MORE LIKE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR NE OH/NW PA. WILL
CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST ALTHOUGH
EXPECTING THE INSTABILITY TO GET CUT-OFF OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
AS THE SURFACE LOW OCCLUDES. SHEAR WILL BE HIGH WITH A STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW BUT INSTABILITY SHOULD BE A
LIMITING FACTOR FOR SEVERE WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHEST IN
THE EAST AHEAD OF THE RAIN ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS NEAR 70...TAPERING
DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S IN NW OHIO.
THE FORECAST THROUGH MID-WEEK IS A BLENDED SOLUTIONS WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY FOR MOST
AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK BELOW NORMAL INTO THE UPPER 50S
WITH THE COOLEST AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM BEING CUT-OFF NORTH
OF THE GREAT LAKES. SHOWERS ARE LIMITED TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY BUT
MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO ALL AREAS IF THE LOW DOES CLOSE OFF.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER LAKE ERIE WHILE AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE SLIDES NORTHEAST THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY OVERNIGHT.
NOT EXPECTING AS MUCH FOG ACROSS THE SRN SITES AS LAST NIGHT AS
WINDS STAY UP NEAR 5-8 KNOTS WITH LOTS OF HIGH CLOUD AROUND. DID
INCLUDE A BRIEF WINDOW OF MVFR VISIBILITIES AT FDY/MFD/CAK ALTHOUGH
ITS POSSIBLE WE MAY NOT SEE THESE DEVELOP. RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS
CENTRAL OHIO OVERNIGHT BUT EXPECTING THIS TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
TERMINALS. EXPECTING SOME MVFR CLOUDS TO DEVELOP OFF LAKE ERIE
TONIGHT AND IMPACT ERI/CLE/YNG. LIGHT NORTH WINDS BELOW 10 KNOTS
WILL CONTINUE.
.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE SATURDAY NEAR LAKE ERIE AND LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. NON VFR SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE AREA IN RAIN
ON TUESDAY AND LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED WEST OF THE GREAT LAKES WITH A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY OVERNIGHT.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS WITH 1 TO 3 FEET
WAVES...THEN DECREASE ON SATURDAY AS THE HIGH BUILDS TO THE EAST.
WINDS WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY ON SUNDAY THEN SHIFT AROUND TO THE
SOUTH ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT.
DESPITE A STRONG WIND FIELD ALOFT ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...EXPECT
STABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE LAKE TO LIMIT MIXING SO THE FORECAST
ONLY CALLS FOR 10 TO 20 KNOTS OUT OF THE SOUTH. A COLD FRONT WILL
EVENTUALLY MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE DURING THE MID-WEEK TIME FRAME AND
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED AS WESTERLY WINDS INCREASE.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR OHZ003-006-
008-017-018-027.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA/MULLEN
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
635 AM EDT FRI OCT 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
FRONTAL ZONE OSCILLATES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ROUNDS OF WET
WEATHER. STRONG COLD FRONT TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE MID
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
630 AM UPDATE...
NO CHANGES ATTM.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
FOCUS DURING THE NEAR TERM WILL BE QUASI STATIONARY FRONT AND
TIMING DISTURBANCES RIDING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. USED HRRR FOR THE
INTO MID MORNING FOR POPS WHICH WILL FEATURE ONE BAND OF -SHRA
ACROSS SE OH/C AND N WV. MEANWHILE DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK THRU KY
AND INTO WV THIS MORNING WITH MORE WIDESPREAD RAINS ALONG AND N OF
BOUNDARY WITH MORE CONVECTIVE PRECIP ACROSS S WV/SW VA. THIS
FEATURE QUICKLY MOVES E OF THE AREA BY MIDDAY WITH PERHAPS A LULL
IN ACTIVITY IN THE AFTERNOON AS BOUNDARY MAY SLIP A BIT S INTO S
ZONES FOR A TIME.
EXPECT PRECIP TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ONCE AGAIN LATE TOMORROW AND
ESPECIALLY TOMORROW NIGHT AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES AND
ENERGIZES THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT WITH AID FROM AMPLIFYING
UPPER TROF. DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING ALONG FRONT AND WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS REGARDING WATER CONCERNS TOMORROW NIGHT
ESPECIALLY ACROSS S ZONES WHERE PRECIP MAY BE MORE CONVECTIVE IN
NATURE. WILL HOLD CONVECTION ACROSS SE WV AND SW VA PER
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AND THETA E. FELT NAM WAS A BIT SLOW WITH
PROGRESSION OF SURFACE LOW AND SIDED MORE WITH FASTER GFS. AS SUCH
BEGIN TO DECREASE PRECIP FROM NW TO SE TOWARD SATURDAY MORNING
WITH PARTIAL CLEARING FOR SE OH.
FOR TEMPS...FELT BEST TO UNDERCUT GUIDANCE A DEGREE OR TWO GIVEN
THE CLOUDS AND PRECIP TODAY. EXCEPTION BEING S OF FRONT IN SE WV
AND SW VA WITH TEMPS MAY APPROACH 70F.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SIGNIFICANT TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS WITH THE WAVE
ALONG THE FRONT ON SATURDAY. NAM IS THE SLOWEST AND APPEARS TO BE AN
OUTLIER AS THE SREF IS IN MORE AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS.
THEREFORE...WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD THE GFS/SREF SOLUTION. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WAFFLES BACK NORTHWARD SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. GOOD
FORCING...SO WILL INCREASE POPS A BIT WITH THIS FEATURE. BY LATE
MONDAY...FORECAST AREA MOVES INTO THE WARM SECTOR WHICH APPEARS TO BE
DRY DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE. WILL REMOVE POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RELATIVELY QUITE WEATHER EXPECTED MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH A
WARM FRONT TO OUR NORTH AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST. GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING SIMILAR SOLUTIONS ON HIGH AMPLITUDE
UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY.
H850 WIND FLOW OF 55 TO 60 KNOTS BY BOTH MODELS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT IN THE WARM SECTOR. THIS WILL BRING WARMER
TEMPERATURES...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY EVENING.
WATER PROBLEMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. ALTHOUGH HEAVY
DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE.
DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER FOLLOWS THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD...AS A HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
STATES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
BLENDED IN WPC AND BIAS CORRECTED GFS BASED MOS GUIDANCE FOR
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WILL BE TRACKING A DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS S WV THIS MORNING.
THIS WILL ALLOW PRECIP TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA WITH CONVECTIVE
PRECIP REMAINING S OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...OVER SE WV AND SW VA.
CIGS SHOULD ALSO LOWER ALONG FRONTAL ZONE AND N...TO AFFECT MOST
TERMINALS SAVE FOR KBKW. GRADUALLY LOWER CIGS THRU MVFR AND INTO
IFR BY THIS EVENING WITH PREDOMINATELY MVFR VSBY IN SHRA. HOWEVER
THIS COULD EASILY BE IFR SHOULD CIGS LOWER MORE THAN EXPECTED.
SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT THRU TAF PERIOD.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW-MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: DEPENDING ON ARRIVAL OF MAIN WAVES OF THE RAIN
...TIMING THE LOWER CEILINGS WILL VARY AND JUST HOW LOW THEY WILL
GO.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS
CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H =
HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M =
MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW:
TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
EDT 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M M H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H M H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY M H M M H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...
IFR IN CEILINGS IN WAKE OF THE WAVE FOR SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN
WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.
IFR POSSIBLE AGAIN IN ROUNDS OF CONVECTION TUESDAY.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/30
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
338 AM EDT FRI OCT 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
FRONTAL ZONE OSCILLATES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ROUNDS OF WET
WEATHER. STRONG COLD FRONT TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE MID
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FOCUS DURING THE NEAR TERM WILL BE QUASI STATIONARY FRONT AND
TIMING DISTURBANCES RIDING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. USED HRRR FOR THE
INTO MID MORNING FOR POPS WHICH WILL FEATURE ONE BAND OF -SHRA
ACROSS SE OH/C AND N WV. MEANWHILE DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK THRU KY
AND INTO WV THIS MORNING WITH MORE WIDESPREAD RAINS ALONG AND N OF
BOUNDARY WITH MORE CONVECTIVE PRECIP ACROSS S WV/SW VA. THIS
FEATURE QUICKLY MOVES E OF THE AREA BY MIDDAY WITH PERHAPS A LULL
IN ACTIVITY IN THE AFTERNOON AS BOUNDARY MAY SLIP A BIT S INTO S
ZONES FOR A TIME.
EXPECT PRECIP TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ONCE AGAIN LATE TOMORROW AND
ESPECIALLY TOMORROW NIGHT AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES AND
ENERGIZES THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT WITH AID FROM AMPLIFYING
UPPER TROF. DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING ALONG FRONT AND WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS REGARDING WATER CONCERNS TOMORROW NIGHT
ESPECIALLY ACROSS S ZONES WHERE PRECIP MAY BE MORE CONVECTIVE IN
NATURE. WILL HOLD CONVECTION ACROSS SE WV AND SW VA PER
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AND THETA E. FELT NAM WAS A BIT SLOW WITH
PROGRESSION OF SURFACE LOW AND SIDED MORE WITH FASTER GFS. AS SUCH
BEGIN TO DECREASE PRECIP FROM NW TO SE TOWARD SATURDAY MORNING
WITH PARTIAL CLEARING FOR SE OH.
FOR TEMPS...FELT BEST TO UNDERCUT GUIDANCE A DEGREE OR TWO GIVEN
THE CLOUDS AND PRECIP TODAY. EXCEPTION BEING S OF FRONT IN SE WV
AND SW VA WITH TEMPS MAY APPROACH 70F.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SIGNIFICANT TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS WITH THE WAVE
ALONG THE FRONT ON SATURDAY. NAM IS THE SLOWEST AND APPEARS TO BE AN
OUTLIER AS THE SREF IS IN MORE AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS.
THEREFORE...WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD THE GFS/SREF SOLUTION. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WAFFLES BACK NORTHWARD SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. GOOD
FORCING...SO WILL INCREASE POPS A BIT WITH THIS FEATURE. BY LATE
MONDAY...FORECAST AREA MOVES INTO THE WARM SECTOR WHICH APPEARS TO BE
DRY DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE. WILL REMOVE POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RELATIVELY QUITE WEATHER EXPECTED MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH A
WARM FRONT TO OUR NORTH AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST. GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING SIMILAR SOLUTIONS ON HIGH AMPLITUDE
UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY.
H850 WIND FLOW OF 55 TO 60 KNOTS BY BOTH MODELS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT IN THE WARM SECTOR. THIS WILL BRING WARMER
TEMPERATURES...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY EVENING.
WATER PROBLEMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. ALTHOUGH HEAVY
DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE.
DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER FOLLOWS THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD...AS A HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
STATES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
BLENDED IN WPC AND BIAS CORRECTED GFS BASED MOS GUIDANCE FOR
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DIFFICULT AVIATION FORECAST INTO EARLY MORNING HRS. TOUGH TO
FIGURE OUT EXTENT OF FOG GIVEN ABUNDANCE OF MID DECK ALONG WITH
SCT SHRA ALONG QUASI STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FELT BEST
CHANCES FOR IFR VSBY WAS KCRW/KCKB WITH MVFR PERHAPS MOST OTHER
PLACES. HAVE SOME VCSH IN TERMINALS CLOSES TO AXIS OF -SHRA.
WILL BE TRACKING A DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS S WV THIS MORNING.
THIS WILL ALLOW PRECIP TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA WITH CONVECTIVE
PRECIP REMAINING S OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...OVER SE WV AND SW VA.
CIGS SHOULD ALSO LOWER ALONG FRONTAL ZONE AND N...TO AFFECT MOST
TERMINALS SAVE FOR KBKW. GRADUALLY LOWER CIGS THRU MVFR AND INTO
IFR BY THIS EVENING WITH PREDOMINATELY MVFR VSBY IN SHRA. HOWEVER
THIS COULD EASILY BE IFR SHOULD CIGS LOWER MORE THAN EXPECTED.
SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT THRU TAF PERIOD.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW-MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: DEPENDING ON ARRIVAL OF MAIN WAVES OF THE RAIN
FRIDAY...TIMING THE LOWER CEILINGS WILL VARY AND JUST HOW LOW THEY
WILL GO.
NOT REALLY SURE WHAT TO DO WITH THE ISOLATED IFR. IT MAY MIX OUT
AS PRECIP NEARS OR JUST CONGEAL. I CHOSE THE LATTER.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE FRI 10/10/14
UTC 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
EDT 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M
HTS CONSISTENCY M M M H H H M M M M M M
BKW CONSISTENCY H M M M M H M M H H M M
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M H H H H M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
IFR IN CEILINGS AND SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...BECOMING MOSTLY
CEILINGS IN WAKE OF THE WAVE FOR SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.
IFR POSSIBLE AGAIN IN ROUNDS OF CONVECTION TUESDAY.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/30
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
225 AM EDT FRI OCT 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
FRONTAL ZONE OSCILLATES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ROUNDS OF WET
WEATHER. A COLD FRONT PASSES FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. STRONGER
COLD FRONT TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
FOCUS DURING THE NEAR TERM WILL BE QUASI STATIONARY FRONT AND
TIMING DISTURBANCES RIDING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. USED HRRR FOR THE
INTO MID MORNING FOR POPS WHICH WILL FEATURE ONE BAND OF -SHRA
ACROSS SE OH/C AND N WV. MEANWHILE DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK THRU KY
AND INTO WV THIS MORNING WITH MORE WIDESPREAD RAINS ALONG AND N OF
BOUNDARY WITH MORE CONVECTIVE PRECIP ACROSS S WV/SW VA. THIS
FEATURE QUICKLY MOVES E OF THE AREA BY MIDDAY WITH PERHAPS A LULL
IN ACTIVITY IN THE AFTERNOON AS BOUNDARY MAY SLIP A BIT S INTO S
ZONES FOR A TIME.
EXPECT PRECIP TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ONCE AGAIN LATE TOMORROW AND
ESPECIALLY TOMORROW NIGHT AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES AND
ENERGIZES THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT WITH AID FROM AMPLIFYING
UPPER TROF. DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING ALONG FRONT AND WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS REGARDING WATER CONCERNS TOMORROW NIGHT
ESPECIALLY ACROSS S ZONES WHERE PRECIP MAY BE MORE CONVECTIVE IN
NATURE. WILL HOLD CONVECTION ACROSS SE WV AND SW VA PER
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AND THETA E. FELT NAM WAS A BIT SLOW WITH
PROGRESSION OF SURFACE LOW AND SIDED MORE WITH FASTER GFS. AS SUCH
BEGIN TO DECREASE PRECIP FROM NW TO SE TOWARD SATURDAY MORNING
WITH PARTIAL CLEARING FOR SE OH.
FOR TEMPS...FELT BEST TO UNDERCUT GUIDANCE A DEGREE OR TWO GIVEN
THE CLOUDS AND PRECIP TODAY. EXCEPTION BEING S OF FRONT IN SE WV
AND SW VA WITH TEMPS MAY APPROACH 70F.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ACTIVE WEATHER DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
SWEEP SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA ON SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE GRADUALLY
PUSHES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CWA. STILL LOOKING FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES...AND GENERALLY HAVE AROUND AN
ADDITIONAL 0.5 TO 0.65 INCHES OF RAIN SATURDAY...OUTSIDE OF
SOUTHEAST OHIO. DESPITE THE GOOD DOSE OF RAIN EXPECTED...CURRENT
THINKING WITH WPC AND LOCAL FORECASTERS IS THAT WIDESPREAD FLOODING
ISSUES ARE NOT EXPECTED. WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE A MENTION OUT OF THE
HWO FOR NOW.
AS THE LOW SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST...DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE
CWA...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTH. DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINKS...WHICH THERE IS GOOD CONSENSUS THAT IT WILL
ACTUALLY SHIFT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH FOR ALL OF CWA TO AT LEAST DRY OUT
TEMPORARILY SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...WILL DETERMINE
WHETHER OR NOT POPS ARE WARRANTED ACROSS THE SOUTH. FOR
NOW...MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE ACROSS EXTREME SOUTH FOR
SATURDAY EVE/NIGHT.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH ON SUNDAY...AS YET ANOTHER WAVE
APPROACHES THE AREA...WITH INCREASING MOISTURE...AND A RETURN OF
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ACROSS THE
SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RELATIVELY QUITE WEATHER EXPECTED MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH A
WARM FRONT TO OUR NORTH AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST. GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING SIMILAR SOLUTIONS ON HIGH AMPLITUDE
UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY.
H850 WIND FLOW OF 55 TO 60 KNOTS BY BOTH MODELS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT IN THE WARM SECTOR. THIS WILL BRING WARMER
TEMPERATURES...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY EVENING.
WATER PROBLEMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. ALTHOUGH HEAVY
DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE.
DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER FOLLOWS THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD...AS A HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
STATES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
BLENDED IN WPC AND BIAS CORRECTED GFS BASED MOS GUIDANCE FOR
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DIFFICULT AVIATION FORECAST INTO EARLY MORNING HRS. TOUGH TO
FIGURE OUT EXTENT OF FOG GIVEN ABUNDANCE OF MID DECK ALONG WITH
SCT SHRA ALONG QUASI STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FELT BEST
CHANCES FOR IFR VSBY WAS KCRW/KCKB WITH MVFR PERHAPS MOST OTHER
PLACES. HAVE SOME VCSH IN TERMINALS CLOSES TO AXIS OF -SHRA.
WILL BE TRACKING A DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS S WV THIS MORNING.
THIS WILL ALLOW PRECIP TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA WITH CONVECTIVE
PRECIP REMAINING S OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...OVER SE WV AND SW VA.
CIGS SHOULD ALSO LOWER ALONG FRONTAL ZONE AND N...TO AFFECT MOST
TERMINALS SAVE FOR KBKW. GRADUALLY LOWER CIGS THRU MVFR AND INTO
IFR BY THIS EVENING WITH PREDOMINATELY MVFR VSBY IN SHRA. HOWEVER
THIS COULD EASILY BE IFR SHOULD CIGS LOWER MORE THAN EXPECTED.
SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT THRU TAF PERIOD.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW-MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: DEPENDING ON ARRIVAL OF MAIN WAVES OF THE RAIN
FRIDAY...TIMING THE LOWER CEILINGS WILL VARY AND JUST HOW LOW THEY
WILL GO.
NOT REALLY SURE WHAT TO DO WITH THE ISOLATED IFR. IT MAY MIX OUT
AS PRECIP NEARS OR JUST CONGEAL. I CHOSE THE LATTER.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE FRI 10/10/14
UTC 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
EDT 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M
HTS CONSISTENCY M M M H H H M M M M M M
BKW CONSISTENCY H M M M M H M M H H M M
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M H H H H M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
IFR IN CEILINGS AND SHOWERS AFTER 18Z FRIDAY AND POSSIBLE THUNDER IN
SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...BECOMING MOSTLY
CEILINGS IN WAKE OF THE WAVE FOR SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.
IFR POSSIBLE AGAIN AREA WIDE...IN ROUNDS OF CONVECTION SUNDAY AND
AGAIN ON TUESDAY.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/30
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...JSH
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1054 PM CDT SAT OCT 11 2014
.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 06Z TAFS IS BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
MVFR/VFR CEILINGS 2100-6000 FT AGL EAST OF KEND-KFDR ARE EXPECTED
TO DISSIPATE THROUGH 12Z. KOKC AND KOUN HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCES
FOR MVFR CEILINGS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THESE CEILINGS WILL
DISSIPATE OR MOVE EAST OF THESE SITES BY 12Z.
THERE IS AN OUTSIDE FOR PATCHY BR/FG AND IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
NEAR AND SOUTHEAST OF KLTS-KEND 09-17Z...BUT WILL NOT MENTION DUE
TO VERY LOW CONFIDENCE.
SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE AT ALL SITES 12-18Z.
ISO-NUM SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS 00-06Z MONDAY. WILL ADD VCTS. VARIABLE STRONG
WINDS AND BRIEF IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
MBS
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 833 PM CDT SAT OCT 11 2014/
UPDATE...
UPDATED TEMPERATURE AND SKY GRIDS. SEE DISCUSSION BELOW.
DISCUSSION...
UPDATED HOURLY TEMPERATURE GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR A SLOWER COOL DOWN
THIS EVENING. ALSO UPDATED SKY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR CLEARING SKIES
ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA. HRRR SUGGESTS CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
DISSIPATE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. IT APPEARS
SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE CWA MAY NOT CLEAR OUT BY MORNING. THIS
REGION WOULD HAVE THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST...WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF FOG OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
NOW.
MAHALE
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 233 PM CDT SAT OCT 11 2014/
DISCUSSION...
SOCKED IN TODAY WITH CLOUDS ON BACK SIDE OF EXITING STORM SYSTEM
THAT BROUGHT MUCH NEEDED RAIN TO MANY PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. STILL EXPECT TO SEE A GRADUAL DISSIPATION OF
THESE CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. COULD
SEE SOME PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT IF CLOUDS DO CLEAR... BUT FOR NOW
EXPECT CLOUDS TO HANG TOUGH IN AREAS THAT SAW RAIN AND FOG
POTENTIAL TO REMAIN MINIMAL.
LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL INCREASE QUICKLY ON SUNDAY AS UPPER WAVE
INDUCES LEE PRES FALLS WITH SFC LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS SE CO BY
AFTN. THESE STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL TRY AND BEGIN TO BRING RICHER
MOISTURE NORTHWARD IN ADVANCE OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM... BUT AS THE
FRONT YESTERDAY HAS PUSHED ALL THE WAY INTO THE NORTHERN GULF...
THIS WILL BE A SLOW PROCESS. THIS MAY LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE TO SOME DEGREE ACROSS THE AREA... HOWEVER THE STRENGTH OF
THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY STILL RESULT IN SOME SEVERE STORMS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO OUR WEST/NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY
TOMORROW AND COULD BECOME WIDESPREAD DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
STRONGEST STORMS WITH SOME SEVERE ARE LIKELY TO EXIST NEAR THE SFC
FRONT... WHICH WILL RACE SOUTHEAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY
SLOWER WITH THE THIS SYSTEM... SO PRECIP MAY LINGER THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY ON MONDAY... ESPECIALLY NORTH WITH WRAP-AROUND. ANOTHER
CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WITH STRONG WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT. MAY NEED A WIND ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA FOR SOME TIME
MONDAY.
BEYOND MONDAY EXPECT TO SEE A WARMING TREND INTO THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 48 76 58 69 / 0 20 80 40
HOBART OK 47 80 55 71 / 0 20 60 20
WICHITA FALLS TX 50 82 60 74 / 0 20 60 20
GAGE OK 43 79 50 64 / 0 30 50 30
PONCA CITY OK 45 73 58 64 / 0 20 80 50
DURANT OK 51 75 64 72 / 0 20 80 60
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
03/17/17
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
833 PM CDT SAT OCT 11 2014
.UPDATE...
UPDATED TEMPERATURE AND SKY GRIDS. SEE DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED HOURLY TEMPERATURE GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR A SLOWER COOL DOWN
THIS EVENING. ALSO UPDATED SKY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR CLEARING SKIES
ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA. HRRR SUGGESTS CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
DISSIPATE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. IT APPEARS
SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE CWA MAY NOT CLEAR OUT BY MORNING. THIS
REGION WOULD HAVE THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST...WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF FOG OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
NOW.
MAHALE
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 PM CDT SAT OCT 11 2014/
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS IS BELOW.
AVIATION...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
MVFR/VFR CEILINGS 2100-6000 FT AGL EAST OF KEND-KFDR WILL
DISSIPATE THROUGH 12Z. KSPS AND KOUN HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCES
FOR MVFR CEILINGS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THESE CEILINGS WILL
DISSIPATE OR MOVE EAST OF THESE SITES BY 12Z.
THERE IS AN OUTSIDE FOR PATCHY BR AND IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
NEAR AND SOUTHEAST OF KLAW-KSWO 10-17Z...BUT DID NOT MENTION DUE
TO VERY LOW CONFIDENCE.
SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASE AT ALL SITES
12-18Z.
THERE COULD BE ISO SHRA/TSRA OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA AFTER
21Z...BUT DID NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.
MBS
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 233 PM CDT SAT OCT 11 2014/
DISCUSSION...
SOCKED IN TODAY WITH CLOUDS ON BACK SIDE OF EXITING STORM SYSTEM
THAT BROUGHT MUCH NEEDED RAIN TO MANY PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. STILL EXPECT TO SEE A GRADUAL DISSIPATION OF
THESE CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. COULD
SEE SOME PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT IF CLOUDS DO CLEAR... BUT FOR NOW
EXPECT CLOUDS TO HANG TOUGH IN AREAS THAT SAW RAIN AND FOG
POTENTIAL TO REMAIN MINIMAL.
LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL INCREASE QUICKLY ON SUNDAY AS UPPER WAVE
INDUCES LEE PRES FALLS WITH SFC LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS SE CO BY
AFTN. THESE STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL TRY AND BEGIN TO BRING RICHER
MOISTURE NORTHWARD IN ADVANCE OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM... BUT AS THE
FRONT YESTERDAY HAS PUSHED ALL THE WAY INTO THE NORTHERN GULF...
THIS WILL BE A SLOW PROCESS. THIS MAY LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE TO SOME DEGREE ACROSS THE AREA... HOWEVER THE STRENGTH OF
THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY STILL RESULT IN SOME SEVERE STORMS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO OUR WEST/NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY
TOMORROW AND COULD BECOME WIDESPREAD DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
STRONGEST STORMS WITH SOME SEVERE ARE LIKELY TO EXIST NEAR THE SFC
FRONT... WHICH WILL RACE SOUTHEAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY
SLOWER WITH THE THIS SYSTEM... SO PRECIP MAY LINGER THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY ON MONDAY... ESPECIALLY NORTH WITH WRAP-AROUND. ANOTHER
CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WITH STRONG WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT. MAY NEED A WIND ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA FOR SOME TIME
MONDAY.
BEYOND MONDAY EXPECT TO SEE A WARMING TREND INTO THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 48 76 58 69 / 0 20 80 40
HOBART OK 47 80 55 71 / 0 20 60 20
WICHITA FALLS TX 50 82 60 74 / 0 20 60 20
GAGE OK 43 79 50 64 / 0 30 50 30
PONCA CITY OK 45 73 58 64 / 0 20 80 50
DURANT OK 51 75 64 72 / 0 20 80 60
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
10/17
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
204 PM EDT FRI OCT 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION
TODAY INTO SATURDAY...BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA
OVER THE WEEKEND. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST AND CROSSES THE REGION ON TUESDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 AM...MODELS ARE INITIALIZING A VORT MAX EMBEDDED WITHIN
ZONAL FLOW OVER CENTRAL TN EARLY THIS MORNING. AND THAT SHORTWAVE
WILL TRACK ACRS THE CWFA THIS AFTN. AT THE SFC...A QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONT WAS ANALYZED WEST TO EAST FROM OKLAHOMA...THRU THE TN
VALLEY...TO THE DELMARVA. OUR AREA IS WITHIN A MOISTENING WARM
SECTOR AIR MASS...WITH SWLY LLVL FLOW. THIS HAS RESULTED IN SOME
STUBBORN LOW STRATUS ACRS MUCH OF THE PIEDMONT...FROM NE GA TO THE
CHARLOTTE AREA. THESE CLOUDS SHUD GRADUALLY MIX OUT WITHIN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. THE RAP SEEMS TO BE PICKING UP ON THIS. IT HAS ISOLD
CONVECTION FIRING TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST...AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHWRS/TSTMS ACRS TN AND NC MTNS THIS AFTN. SO ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO
THE POPS ARE NEEDED. BASED ON THE EXPECTED 1000+ J/KG OF CAPE WHERE
HEATING IS MAXIMIZED...AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 25-30 KTS AGAIN LIKE
YESTERDAY...A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE WORDING IN THE
HWO LOOKS GOOD...WITH A MENTION OF AN ISOLD SEVERE THREAT. TEMPS
LOOK ON TRACK (ABOUT 8 DEG ABOVE NORMAL)...ALTHO IF CLOUDS LINGER
INTO EARLY AFTN...A FEW LOCATIONS ACRS THE UPSTATE MAY NOT QUITE
REACH THEIR FCST HIGHS.
THE FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST WILL START TO MOVE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT. INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL DECREASE ONLY
SLOWLY...SUCH THAT EVENING CONVECTION WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE.
SOUNDINGS BECOME WEAKLY CAPPED IN THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT NOT
SO IN THE EAST. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RUN OVER 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL DUE TO CLOUDS AND WARM ADVECTION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM FRI...THE WRN CAROLINAS AND NE GA SHOULD REMAIN IN THE
WARM SECTOR AIR S OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH THE DAY ON SAT.
PEAK AFTERNOON INSTABILITY OF 1000 J/KG OR GREATER AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY WILL SUPPORT SCT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAINLY SAT AFTN. THIS
SHOULD BE THE FINAL DAY OF WARM MAXES 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL THEN STEADILY SLIP SWD INTO THE REGION
SAT NIGHT AND PUSH S OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AS
1025 MB SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER TO THE N. WEAK H5 SHORTWAVES IN
THE WSW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO RIDE EWD OVER THE BOUNDARY TO
ENHANCE LIFTING AT TIMES OVER THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. COOL
CAD MAX TEMPS WILL SWING TO 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO.
MEANWHILE...A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH WILL LIKELY DEVELOP FROM SRN
MANITOBA THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO W TX BY LATE SUNDAY...WITH
MOIST UPGLIDE DEVELOPING WELL AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH OVER THE BACKDOOR
BOUNDARY IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. THIS SHOULD YIELD SOLID CHC POPS
FOR MAINLY LIGHT RAIN SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A SMALL
DIURNAL RANGE ON TEMPS THROUGHOUT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 240 AM EDT FRI...A FULL LATITUDE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
SHARPEN UP AS IT MOVES EWD TOWARD THE MS RIVER ON MON...POSSIBLY
DEVELOPING A CLOSED CIRCULATION NEAR OR NORTH OF THE OH RIVER VALLEY
BY MON NIGHT. SRLY FLOW AND UPGLIDE WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS
TROUGH THROUGH MON AS AN 850 MB JET FORMS AND GRADUALLY STRENGTHENS.
IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW MUCH THE EXISTING SFC CAD LAYER
CAN SCOUR ON MON GIVEN THE RETURNING WARM SECTOR AND INCREASING SRLY
FLOW ALONG WITH A RELATIVE LULL IN UPPER FORCING. IT IS LIKELY THAT
SOME DEGREE OF CAD WILL PERSIST...AT LEAST OVER THE NRN HALF...AND
TEMPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED DOWN FOR MON.
THE FIRST ROUND OF STRONGER...DISCRETE CELLULAR CONVECTION AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND SHARP COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY START
CLOSING IN ON THE FORECAST AREA FROM NRN GA TOWARD DAYBREAK TUE.
STRONG UPPER FOCING AHEAD OF THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED SYSTEM WILL THEN
MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA ON TUE. NEARLY ALL OF THE
MODEL/ENSEMBLE FORECASTS ARE COMING IN LINE WITH A TUE TIMING FOR
THE SYSTEM...AND HIGH LIKELY TO LOW END CATEGORICAL POPS WILL BE
FEATURED FOR THE HEART OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH A MAINLY AFTN
FOCUS.
THE SRLY LOW LEVEL JET WITH THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SFC TO 3
KM BULK SHEAR VALUES APPROACHING 50 KT TUE AFTN. ANY SEMBLANCE OF A
TRIPLE POINT LOW PRES CENTER MOVING ENE ALONG A RETREATING WEDGE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WOULD FOCUS MUCH OF THAT SHEAR IN THE SFC TO 1 KM
LAYER AND HEIGTHEN THE TORNADO THREAT FOR OUR FORECAST AREA TUE
AFTN. SOME LIMITING FACTORS FOR SEVERE CONVECTION WILL BE RELATIVELY
MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF THE DEEP TROUGH AND VERY DEEP
MOISTURE IN THE SOUNDINGS TO LIMIT SFC BASED CAPE. HOWEVER...DEEP
DYNAMICAL FORCING MIGHT WELL OVERCOME ANY DEFICIENCIES IN
INSTABILITY. IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE THREAT...PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL LIKELY SURGE TO NEARLY TWO INCHES IN THE BEST MOISTURE
FLUX TUE. A FOCUS OF TERRAIN FORCED PRECIPITATION COULD WELL LEAD TO
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES/TOTALS IN THE MTNS...WITH PERHAPS MORE
ISOLD/TRAINING TYPE HYDRO ISSUES OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS. THE CURRENT
SEVERE/HYDRO THREAT WORDING IN THE HWO APPEARS WELL PLACED FOR TUE.
EXPECT FROPA THROUGHOUT BY TUE NIGHT...WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
PASSAGE AND DEEP LAYER DRYING ARRIVING BY WED. WINDY CONDITIONS POST
FROPA WILL LINGER THROUGH WED BEFORE THE PRES GRADIENT RELAXES ON
THU AS RIDGING BECOMES DOMINANT ONCE AGAIN. BELOW NORMAL MAXES WED
WILL START TO MODERATE ON THU. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF ISOLD
FROST PROBLEMS IN SHELTERED LOCATIONS IN THE MTNS THU MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...THE LOW STRATUS HAS FINALLY BURNED MIXED OUT...LEAVING VFR
CONDITIONS. VFR CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH A
FEW ISOLD SHRA AND TSRA POSSIBLE LATE AFTN INTO THIS EVENING. THE
LATEST GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED LESS CONVECTIVE ACRS THE PIEDMONT THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS...SO CONFIDENCE IN A DIRECT IMPACT FROM CONVECTION IS
WANING. HAVE OPTED TO REMOVE ALL MENTION OF PRECIP IN THE 18Z TAF.
WITH THAT SAID...THERE IS STILL AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR STORMS TO BE
AROUND THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT...GUIDANCE IS MORE MIXED ON WHETHER
STRATUS AND/OR FOG DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK SATURDAY. I HAVE OPTED TO
PUT A FEW HOURS OF MVFR CIGS BASED ON WHAT HAPPENED TODAY. WHATEVER
CLOUDS DEVELOP SHUD BURN OFF AGAIN SATURDAY MIDDAY. WINDS WILL BE
SWLY THRU THE PERIOD...WITH A FEW LOW-END GUSTS POSSIBLE THIS AFTN.
ELSEWHERE...BASED ON CURRENT RADAR AND VIS SAT TRENDS AND THE LATEST
HIGH-RES MODELS AND RAP/NAM...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP/INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACRS THE NC MTNS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NW...AND ALSO DEVELOP ACRS THE
SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY. SO I WILL KEEP THE VCTS MENTIONS AT ALL
SITES...AS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHRA AND TSRA SHUD BE AROUND THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS LATE AFTN INTO THIS EVENING.
OVERNIGHT...CONVECTION SHUD WANE...BUT THERE WILL BE A LINGERING CHC
DUE TO SOME ELEVATED INSTBY AND WEAK...BUT PERSISTENT SWLY UPGLIDE
FLOW. I WILL KEEP A BKN050-BKN070 MENTION AT ALL THE SITES THRU THE
OVERNIGHT. THE MID CLOUDS MAY HELP LIMIT ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW
STRATUS SATURDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE IS MIXED ON HOW MUCH AND IN WHAT
LOCATIONS. IT SEEMS THE BEST CHC FOR STRATUS WILL BE TO THE
EAST...SO I WILL LEAVE IT OUT OF THE UPSTATE TAFS. AS FOR VALLEY FOG
IN KAVL...CONFIDENCE IS LOW. I WILL PUT MVFR VSBY FOR NOW.
OUTLOOK...RESTRICIONS ARE LOOKING MORE LIKELY IN A MOIST AIR MASS
THROUGH MONDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVING TUESDAY WILL BRING A
THREAT OF VERY HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
18-24Z 00-06Z 06-12Z 12-18Z
KCLT HIGH 99% HIGH 100% HIGH 94% HIGH 98%
KGSP HIGH 99% HIGH 100% HIGH 95% HIGH 91%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 86%
KHKY HIGH 92% HIGH 85% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 99% HIGH 100% HIGH 95% HIGH 91%
KAND HIGH 93% HIGH 100% HIGH 83% HIGH 91%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...ARK/JAT
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...HG
AVIATION...ARK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1032 AM EDT FRI OCT 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION
TODAY INTO SATURDAY...BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA
OVER THE WEEKEND. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST AND CROSSES THE REGION ON TUESDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 AM...MODELS ARE INITIALIZING A VORT MAX EMBEDDED WITHIN
ZONAL FLOW OVER CENTRAL TN EARLY THIS MORNING. AND THAT SHORTWAVE
WILL TRACK ACRS THE CWFA THIS AFTN. AT THE SFC...A QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONT WAS ANALYZED WEST TO EAST FROM OKLAHOMA...THRU THE TN
VALLEY...TO THE DELMARVA. OUR AREA IS WITHIN A MOISTENING WARM
SECTOR AIR MASS...WITH SWLY LLVL FLOW. THIS HAS RESULTED IN SOME
STUBBORN LOW STRATUS ACRS MUCH OF THE PIEDMONT...FROM NE GA TO THE
CHARLOTTE AREA. THESE CLOUDS SHUD GRADUALLY MIX OUT WITHIN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. THE RAP SEEMS TO BE PICKING UP ON THIS. IT HAS ISOLD
CONVECTION FIRING TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST...AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHWRS/TSTMS ACRS TN AND NC MTNS THIS AFTN. SO ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO
THE POPS ARE NEEDED. BASED ON THE EXPECTED 1000+ J/KG OF CAPE WHERE
HEATING IS MAXIMIZED...AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 25-30 KTS AGAIN LIKE
YESTERDAY...A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE WORDING IN THE
HWO LOOKS GOOD...WITH A MENTION OF AN ISOLD SEVERE THREAT. TEMPS
LOOK ON TRACK (ABOUT 8 DEG ABOVE NORMAL)...ALTHO IF CLOUDS LINGER
INTO EARLY AFTN...A FEW LOCATIONS ACRS THE UPSTATE MAY NOT QUITE
REACH THEIR FCST HIGHS.
THE FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST WILL START TO MOVE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT. INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL DECREASE ONLY
SLOWLY...SUCH THAT EVENING CONVECTION WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE.
SOUNDINGS BECOME WEAKLY CAPPED IN THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT NOT
SO IN THE EAST. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RUN OVER 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL DUE TO CLOUDS AND WARM ADVECTION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM FRI...THE WRN CAROLINAS AND NE GA SHOULD REMAIN IN THE
WARM SECTOR AIR S OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH THE DAY ON SAT.
PEAK AFTERNOON INSTABILITY OF 1000 J/KG OR GREATER AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY WILL SUPPORT SCT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAINLY SAT AFTN. THIS
SHOULD BE THE FINAL DAY OF WARM MAXES 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL THEN STEADILY SLIP SWD INTO THE REGION
SAT NIGHT AND PUSH S OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AS
1025 MB SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER TO THE N. WEAK H5 SHORTWAVES IN
THE WSW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO RIDE EWD OVER THE BOUNDARY TO
ENHANCE LIFTING AT TIMES OVER THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. COOL
CAD MAX TEMPS WILL SWING TO 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO.
MEANWHILE...A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH WILL LIKELY DEVELOP FROM SRN
MANITOBA THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO W TX BY LATE SUNDAY...WITH
MOIST UPGLIDE DEVELOPING WELL AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH OVER THE BACKDOOR
BOUNDARY IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. THIS SHOULD YIELD SOLID CHC POPS
FOR MAINLY LIGHT RAIN SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A SMALL
DIURNAL RANGE ON TEMPS THROUGHOUT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 240 AM EDT FRI...A FULL LATITUDE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
SHARPEN UP AS IT MOVES EWD TOWARD THE MS RIVER ON MON...POSSIBLY
DEVELOPING A CLOSED CIRCULATION NEAR OR NORTH OF THE OH RIVER VALLEY
BY MON NIGHT. SRLY FLOW AND UPGLIDE WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS
TROUGH THROUGH MON AS AN 850 MB JET FORMS AND GRADUALLY STRENGTHENS.
IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW MUCH THE EXISTING SFC CAD LAYER
CAN SCOUR ON MON GIVEN THE RETURNING WARM SECTOR AND INCREASING SRLY
FLOW ALONG WITH A RELATIVE LULL IN UPPER FORCING. IT IS LIKELY THAT
SOME DEGREE OF CAD WILL PERSIST...AT LEAST OVER THE NRN HALF...AND
TEMPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED DOWN FOR MON.
THE FIRST ROUND OF STRONGER...DISCRETE CELLULAR CONVECTION AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND SHARP COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY START
CLOSING IN ON THE FORECAST AREA FROM NRN GA TOWARD DAYBREAK TUE.
STRONG UPPER FOCING AHEAD OF THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED SYSTEM WILL THEN
MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA ON TUE. NEARLY ALL OF THE
MODEL/ENSEMBLE FORECASTS ARE COMING IN LINE WITH A TUE TIMING FOR
THE SYSTEM...AND HIGH LIKELY TO LOW END CATEGORICAL POPS WILL BE
FEATURED FOR THE HEART OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH A MAINLY AFTN
FOCUS.
THE SRLY LOW LEVEL JET WITH THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SFC TO 3
KM BULK SHEAR VALUES APPROACHING 50 KT TUE AFTN. ANY SEMBLANCE OF A
TRIPLE POINT LOW PRES CENTER MOVING ENE ALONG A RETREATING WEDGE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WOULD FOCUS MUCH OF THAT SHEAR IN THE SFC TO 1 KM
LAYER AND HEIGTHEN THE TORNADO THREAT FOR OUR FORECAST AREA TUE
AFTN. SOME LIMITING FACTORS FOR SEVERE CONVECTION WILL BE RELATIVELY
MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF THE DEEP TROUGH AND VERY DEEP
MOISTURE IN THE SOUNDINGS TO LIMIT SFC BASED CAPE. HOWEVER...DEEP
DYNAMICAL FORCING MIGHT WELL OVERCOME ANY DEFICIENCIES IN
INSTABILITY. IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE THREAT...PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL LIKELY SURGE TO NEARLY TWO INCHES IN THE BEST MOISTURE
FLUX TUE. A FOCUS OF TERRAIN FORCED PRECIPITATION COULD WELL LEAD TO
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES/TOTALS IN THE MTNS...WITH PERHAPS MORE
ISOLD/TRAINING TYPE HYDRO ISSUES OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS. THE CURRENT
SEVERE/HYDRO THREAT WORDING IN THE HWO APPEARS WELL PLACED FOR TUE.
EXPECT FROPA THROUGHOUT BY TUE NIGHT...WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
PASSAGE AND DEEP LAYER DRYING ARRIVING BY WED. WINDY CONDITIONS POST
FROPA WILL LINGER THROUGH WED BEFORE THE PRES GRADIENT RELAXES ON
THU AS RIDGING BECOMES DOMINANT ONCE AGAIN. BELOW NORMAL MAXES WED
WILL START TO MODERATE ON THU. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF ISOLD
FROST PROBLEMS IN SHELTERED LOCATIONS IN THE MTNS THU MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...LOW VFR CLOUDS WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST
TODAY...EVENTUALLY FORMING A CIG. THE CURRENT DEW POINT DEPRESSION
DOES NOT SUPPORT DAYBREAK FOG...BUT GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT A
MARGINAL MVFR VSBY IN FOG SATURDAY MORNING...AND PERHAPS AN MVFR
CIG. AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TODAY...PERHAPS LASTING INTO
THE EVENING. WINDS WILL FAVOR THE SSW...WITH GUSTS DURING DAYLIGHT
HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...FOG DEVELOPMENT HAS NOT BEEN AS WIDESPREAD AS
ANTICIPATED...AND FOG HAS EVEN DIMINISHED IN SOME LOCATIONS. WITH
LOW DE POINT DEPRESSIONS...BRIEF DAYBREAK FOG MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE
HOWEVER. MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST AT SOME FOOTHILL SITES UNTIL MID
MORNING. ON SATURDAY MORNING...GUIDANCE SUPPORTS MVFR VSBY IN THE
FOOTHILLS...WITH AT LEAST IFR IN THE MOUNTAINS. WHILE AN IFR OR
LOWER CIG RESTRICTION SEEMS PROBABLE AT KAVL SATURDAY MORNING...SOME
GUIDANCE MEMBERS ARE LEANING THAT WAY IN THE FOOTHILLS. CONFIDENCE
IS TOO LIMITED FOR IFR CIGS IN THE FOOTHILLS AT THIS TIME.
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON TODAY...IF NOT SOONER IN THE
MOUNTAINS. WINDS WILL FAVOR THE SSW...WITH THE GREATEST GUSTS DURING
DAYLIGHT HOURS.
OUTLOOK...RESTRICIONS ARE LOOKING MORE LIKELY IN A MOIST AIR MASS
THROUGH MONDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVING TUESDAY WILL BRING A
THREAT OF VERY HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
14-20Z 20-02Z 02-08Z 08-14Z
KCLT HIGH 99% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 91%
KGSP HIGH 92% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 93%
KAVL HIGH 97% HIGH 99% HIGH 94% HIGH 83%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 97% MED 77%
KGMU HIGH 87% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 89%
KAND HIGH 88% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 88%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...ARK/JAT
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...HG
AVIATION...JAT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1154 PM CDT THU OCT 9 2014
.UPDATE...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
TAFS REMAIN DIFFICULT THIS PERIOD DUE TO MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
-SHRA/-TSRA EXPECTED. CURRENT MCS CROSSING TN RIVER CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN BUT WILL BRING -SHRA/VCTS TO CKV/BNA OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY
CSV AS WELL. MORE ROUNDS OF -SHRA/-TSRA EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD AS COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE MID STATE. WENT MORE OPTIMISTIC ON FLIGHT CATEGORIES
TONIGHT INTO FRI AFT AS NO IFR CONDITIONS APPARENT BEHIND CURRENT
MCS...BUT IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY POST-COLD FRONT LATE IN
THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS ANTICIPATED THROUGH FRI
AFTERNOON BEFORE SWITCHING TO NORTHWEST AND NORTH BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT.
SHAMBURGER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 PM CDT THU OCT 9 2014/
UPDATE...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.
AVIATION...
DIFFICULT TAFS THIS PERIOD DUE TO MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF -SHRA/-TSRA
EXPECTED AND RELIED HEAVILY ON HRRR MODEL FOR TIMING. MCS
CURRENTLY OVER MO TO MOVE INTO MID STATE LATE THIS EVENING BUT
WEAKEN...WITH CURRENT SPEED HAVING -TSRA REACH CKV AROUND
0330Z...BNA AROUND 05Z...AND CSV BY 09Z. BRIEF LULL IN ACTIVITY
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT BEFORE ADDITIONAL -TSRA ARRIVES FRIDAY MORNING
WITH COLD FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR BY FRI
MORNING AT ALL AIRPORTS...WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD BUT VARIABLE AND GUSTY NEAR -TSRA.
SHAMBURGER
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 434 PM CDT THU OCT 9 2014/
DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...THE BOUNDARY JUST TO THE NORTH OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR STORMS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THERE
IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY AS FAR AS THE TIMING FOR PRECIP
TONIGHT AND HOW FAR SOUTH STORMS WILL SINK. LEANING TOWARD THE
SOLUTION BEING PRESENTED BY NSSL`S 4KM WRF AS IT APPEARS TO BE
INITIALIZING BETTER THAN THE HRRR TODAY...WHICH MEANS SOME SHOWERS
AND STORMS COULD SNEAK IN BEFORE MIDNIGHT IN THE NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES...WITH THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA LIKELY SEEING STORMS
BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 7AM. MONDAY MORNING LOOKS SIMILAR TO THIS
MORNING WITH MODELS INDICATING THE QUASI STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SINKING SOUTH ACROSS MIDDLE TN AND A SURFACE LOW
TRAVELLING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF TN. STRONG STORMS WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY ON FRIDAY...WITH THE THREAT BEING THE HIGHEST NORTH OF
I-40 BEFORE NOON AND SOUTH OF I-40 AFTER NOON. PWAT VALUES REMAIN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...AROUND 1.8 INCHES FOR MOST OF THE AREA
DURING THE SHORT TERM...THIS COUPLED WITH THE WEST TO EAST
MOVEMENT OF STORMS POSSIBLY OVER THE SAME AREA OVER THE NEXT 3
DAYS COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH THE
THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUING. SOUTHERLY
FLOW RETURNS ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF A STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. THE GFS INDICATES A SUBTLE NEGATIVE TILT TO THE TROUGH
AFTER IT CROSSES THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...WILL BE SOMETHING TO
WATCH AS WE GET CLOSER TO MONDAY. THE MAIN THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
WILL BE MONDAY EVENING. 850MB WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 65 KNOTS AS
THE FRONT APPROACHES. SOUNDINGS INDICATE DECENT LOW LEVEL
SHEAR AND BULK SHEAR...BUT LIMITED CAPE VALUES WITH THIS SYSTEM.
PWATS WILL SURGE AGAIN AND BRING A CHANCE OF HEAVY RAINFALL MONDAY
NIGHT...WPC QPF TOTALS ARE AROUND 6 INCHES FOR THE NORTHWESTERN
PORTION OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONDITIONS
AS THEY UNFOLD FOR FLOODING POTENTIAL. CONDITIONS DRY OUT AFTER
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY AND REMAIN QUIET THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK NEXT WEEK.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
55
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
820 PM CDT SAT OCT 11 2014
.UPDATE...
SEE EVENING UPDATE.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUED TO MAKE SLOW BUT STEADY PROGRESS ACROSS THE
CWA THIS EVENING. AT 01Z...THE FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM ABOUT
CLEVELAND TO JUST WEST OF HOBBY AIRPORT TO WEST COLUMBIA TO LAKE
TEXANA. ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE ACCOMPANIED THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT
COVERAGE IS MEAGER. 00Z 850 MB ANALYSIS STILL SHOWS PLENTY OF
MOISTURE ACROSS LOUISIANA AND SOUTH TEXAS WITH A WEAK 850 MB LOW
OVER EASTERN OK AND A TROUGH EXTENDING SW ACROSS CENTRAL TX. A
WEAK 700 MB TROUGH EXTENDS FROM WESTERN OK INTO NE TX WITH THE
DEEPER 700 MB MSTR SHUNTED TO NE TX. AT 250 MB...SE TX LIES IN A
WEAK RRQ AND ANOTHER SPEED MAX WILL ROTATE AROUND A BROAD UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES ON SUNDAY KEEPING SE TX IN A RRQ.
THE RAP 13 IS AGGRESSIVE WITH SHRA/TSRA REDEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY CLOSE TO AND JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST. THE
POSITION OF THE JET AND 850 MB MSTR SEEMS SUPPORTIVE OF THIS
SCENARIO. PREV FCST ALREADY MENTIONS CHANCE POPS FOR SUNDAY
MORNING SO OTHER THAN MINOR TWEAKS TO THE GRIDS...FEEL PREV FCST
IS IN GOOD SHAPE. 43
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 704 PM CDT SAT OCT 11 2014/
DISCUSSION...
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION.
AVIATION...
COLD FRONT NOW FROM NEAR IAH TO E OF SGR...AND SAGGING SEWD TOWARD
HOU. BEHIND THE FRONT SEEING NW WINDS BRIEFLY 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND
GUSTY. LOWER CLOUDS FOLLOW WITH CIGS BLO 1000 FEET AT
UTS...CXO...AND NOW DWH. EXPECT THESE LOWER CIGS TO OVERSPREAD
IAH...SGR AND HOU WITHIN THE NEXT FEW OURS AS WELL...MOSTLY
MVFR...BUT FOR A FEW HOURS AT LEAST...SOME IFR CIGS AS WELL.
OVERNIGHT...SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR FILTERS IN BUT THINK WILL KEEP THE
LOWER CIGS...MAINLY MVFR...AT MOST SITES WITH DIMINISHING NW
WINDS. SE RETURN FLOW KICKS ON ON SUNDAY. PRECIP COVERAGE SHOULD
BE LIMITED AND WILL INCLUDE ONLY VCSH FOR NOW. 46
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CDT SAT OCT 11 2014/
DISCUSSION...
SFC ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY STALLED ALONG
THE COAST OR JUST INLAND. BOUNDARY IS RATHER DIFFUSE SO LIKELY
DISSIPATING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. THERE IS ALSO A COLD FRONT THAT
CURVES FROM THE ARKLATEX SOUTH TO CROCKETT THEN SOUTH OF BRENHAM
TO SAN ANTONIO. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY MAKE SOME SLOW PROGRESS
SOUTHWARD TONIGHT STALLING AT THE COAST. THE LATEST HRRR/RAP RUNS
SEEM TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THIS. FORECAST WILL KEEP 20 POPS
IN FOR THE OVERNIGHT BUT REALLY DO NOT EXPECT MUCH PRECIP TO
OCCUR. THE FRONT SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE TOMORROW AS SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW INCREASES.
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE THE
SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBILITIES MONDAY. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS A STRONG JET STREAK AND DEVELOPING TROUGH COMING INTO THE
PAC NW. THE TROUGH WILL QUICKLY AMPLIFY TOMORROW WITH SFC
CYCLOGENESIS IN THE TX PANHANDLE AS JET STREAK COMES INTO THE S
ROCKIES. UPPER LOW THEN MOVES INTO THE S PLAINS BY MON MORNING
WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING S THROUGH TX. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE
WHETHER LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BREAK THE CAP
AS THERE WILL BE A DECENT ELEVATED MIXED LAYER. RIGHT NOW LOOKS
LIKE THE BOTTOM LOBE OF VORTICITY IN THE TROUGH MAY JUST BE ENOUGH
AND GENERATE QG ASCENT TO ERODE THE CAP. THE FRONT WILL BE ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT LINEAR FORCING FOR A SQUALL LINE TO DEVELOP. DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL BE AROUND 40-5OKTS WITH MODERATE CAPE THAT THE SQUALL
LINE COULD PRODUCE SEVERE WINDS/HAIL. STILL SOME DOUBTS AS TO THE
MAGNITUDE OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR WHICH WOULD HELP WITH POSSIBLE
ROTATING UPDRAFTS IN THE SQUALL LINE. A LLJ OF 40-50KTS WOULD
LIKELY SUPPORT STRONG ENOUGH SHEAR SO POSSIBLE THAT THERE COULD BE
SOME BRIEF TORNADOES FROM A QLCS OR BOWING SEGMENT.
MAIN THREAT APPEARS TO BE DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS THROUGH
THE EARLY AFTERNOON ON MONDAY. AREAS EAST OF COLLEGE STATION AND
NORTH OF HOUSTON SHOULD MONITOR CONDITIONS CLOSELY AS THINK THIS
WILL BE THE MAIN AREA THAT COULD SEE SEVERE WEATHER. SEVERE THREAT
WILL SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST ALONG THE COAST INTO E TX BY EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH THE LINE PUSHING EAST. SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES
INCREASE GREATLY NORTH AND EAST OF HOUSTON TOWARDS ARKANSAS.
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY AND OFF THE COAST
MONDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP SO
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED. THERE COULD BE SOME WIND
GUSTS TO GALE FORCE IN OFFSHORE AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA MON NIGHT INTO TUE ALLOWING FOR MORE SEASONABLE
CONDITIONS. LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 50S WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 70S. COOLER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WEDNESDAY WITH MIN TEMPS
POSSIBLY IN THE LOW 50S. RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK SO EXPECT A WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES.
39
MARINE...
WEAK COOL FRONT/WIND SHIFT LINE APPEARS TO BE SLOWING DOWN THIS AFTN
AND CURRENTLY NEAR/RIGHT ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR. THIS LINE COULD
REACH THE BAYS/RIGHT ALONG THE COAST THIS EVENING BEFORE IT
EVENTUALLY STALLS AND WASHES OUT OVERNIGHT. AS SUCH WILL BE
KEEPING A GENERALLY LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW IN PLACE FOR ALL THE MARINE
ZONES THRU SUN MORN. AS THE NEXT SYSTEM DEEPENS OVER THE SRN
PLAINS...THE TIGHTENING GRAD- IENT WILL HELP PRODUCE STRENGTHENING
ONSHORE WINDS THRU SUN AFTN. WE COULD REACH SCEC CRITERIA FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS SUN NIGHT/EARLY MON MORN. ALL OF THIS IS AHEAD OF
ANOTHER (STRONGER) COLD FRONT WHICH IS SLATED TO MOVE OFFSHORE
LATE MON AFTN/EARLY EVE. A LINE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY
THE FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS. STRONG NNW WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT MIGHT BE ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW GUSTS TO GALE BY MON NIGHT.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE ALSO LIKELY. THESE OFFSHORE WINDS TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN BY TUES AFTN AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE
REGION. ONSHORE WINDS NOT FCST TO RETURN UNTIL THURS OR SO. 41
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 63 84 72 78 53 / 10 20 30 80 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 66 86 74 85 57 / 20 20 20 80 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 74 83 77 86 64 / 20 30 20 70 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS FORT WORTH TX
718 PM CDT SAT OCT 11 2014
.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
CONCERNS...TIMING CEILING IMPROVEMENT AND RETURN TO SOUTH FLOW.
AT TAF TIME...METROPLEX CEILINGS ARE MAKING THE CLIMB ABOVE
2000FT. STRONG DRY ADVECTION AT 850MB WILL ERODE THE CLOUD BANK
FROM ABOVE AS THE CEILINGS LIFT INTO THE VFR CATEGORY FROM BELOW.
THE LATEST RAP IS RELUCTANT TO SCATTER THE DECK UNTIL LATE
TONIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS THE BACK EDGE OF THE STRATUS THIS
EVENING AND AMEND ACCORDINGLY.
NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THIS EVENING. A SURFACE HIGH
TRANSITS THE REGION...AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN IN
TIME FOR MORNING FLIGHTS. SOUTH WINDS WILL PICK UP IN EARNEST
AROUND MIDDAY SUNDAY.
25
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM CDT SAT OCT 11 2014/
DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO WORK IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING
AND RESULT IN A DECREASE IN CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE AS WINDS DECREASE AND CLOUDS SCATTER.
WE EXPECT TO SEE SOME MID 40S IN THE NORTHWEST ZONES BY SUNRISE
WITH LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S IN MOST OTHER LOCATIONS.
SUNDAY WILL BE A MOSTLY SUNNY...BREEZY AND WARMER DAY AS SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS QUICKLY ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE IN
RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE FROM THE NORTHWEST. A FEW
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE NORTHWARD IN THE STRONG RETURN
FLOW AND MAY AFFECT THE SOUTHEAST ZONES BY LATE AFTERNOON. THERE
IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS NEAR THE RED RIVER LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
BETTER STORM CHANCES WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY WHEN THE
UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATES TO THE EAST AND ALLOWS A COLD FRONT TO
MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY DEVELOP
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ZONES SUNDAY EVENING AS LARGE SCALE LIFT
INCREASES AND THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
THE BEST STORM CHANCES WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT
AND MONDAY MORNING. THIS APPEARS TO BE A VERY DYNAMIC SYSTEM WITH
STRONG FORCING SO THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP RAPIDLY INTO AN
ORGANIZED SQUALL LINE. STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE THE
PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS. THE SQUALL LINE SHOULD BE FAIRLY
THIN AND MOVE QUICKLY SO ONLY BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
WITH NO MAJOR FLOODING CONCERNS.
A DRY AIR MASS WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
AND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP
COOL NIGHTTIME TEMPS IN PLACE WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
40S AND 50S. AFTERNOON HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE 70S. A SLOW WARM UP IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED FRIDAY
BUT IT WILL ONLY BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR.
79
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 55 83 67 78 53 / 10 10 80 40 5
WACO, TX 54 84 70 78 52 / 10 10 60 40 5
PARIS, TX 52 77 67 75 51 / 10 20 80 70 5
DENTON, TX 51 83 65 78 51 / 10 10 80 30 5
MCKINNEY, TX 50 78 66 75 50 / 10 10 80 40 5
DALLAS, TX 55 82 66 77 55 / 10 10 80 40 5
TERRELL, TX 52 82 69 77 51 / 10 10 80 50 5
CORSICANA, TX 55 83 68 79 52 / 10 10 60 60 5
TEMPLE, TX 55 84 69 77 52 / 10 10 50 40 5
MINERAL WELLS, TX 48 85 60 77 49 / 10 10 70 20 5
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
25/84
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AMARILLO TX
348 PM CDT FRI OCT 10 2014
.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NEW
MEXICO. A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH NORTH WINDS
GUSTING AROUND 30 MPH. WINDS WILL DECREASE GRADUALLY THIS EVENING AS
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. LOW STRATUS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT
AND LAST INTO THE MORNING BEFORE CLEARING BY LATE MORNING OR MIDDAY.
THIS WILL HELP KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S AT
MOST LOCATIONS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO THE
FAR SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER IN THIS AREA INTO THE EVENING.
PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT EAST OVERNIGHT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
TOMORROW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MID
OCTOBER.
THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL UNDERGO SIGNIFICANT AMPLIFICATION THIS
WEEKEND AS A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EVOLVES OVER THE PLAIN BY
SUNDAY. THIS WILL FORCE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE PANHANDLES
LEADING TO A COMPLICATED AND POTENTIALLY ACTIVE WEATHER DAY ON
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON
TIMING/POSITION RESULTING IN INCREASED CONFIDENCE ON WINDY
CONDITIONS. DURING THE AFTERNOON DEEP MIXING SHOULD RESULT IN PEAK
WIND GUSTS IN THE 30-40 MPH RANGE BEHIND THE EASTWARD MIXING DRYLINE
AND SOUTH OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK.
LOW LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE AND STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO AT LEAST MARGINAL INSTABILITY
FOR A BRIEF PERIOD LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS COMBINED
WITH RATHER INTENSE FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL RESULT IN SOME
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE PANHANDLES
LATE SUNDAY. DEEPER MORE INTENSE CONVECTION SHOULD BE JUST EAST OF
THE PANHANDLES WHERE MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION IS
SHOWN BY THE MODELS. NEVERTHELESS SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS ON
THE FINER DETAILS SUCH AS THE POSITION OF THE DRYLINE AND QUALITY OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WHICH HAS IMPLICATIONS FOR STORM SEVERITY.
THE FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO POTENTIAL FOR STRONG POST FRONTAL NORTHERLY
WINDS LATER SUNDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. HAVE TRENDED WIND SPEEDS UP
FOR BOTH PRE-FRONTAL AND POST-FRONTAL.
DIFFERENCES IN MEDIUM RANGE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE THAT APPEARS
EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR
THE PANHANDLES. THE GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
THAN THE ECMWF AND GEM AND CONSEQUENTLY IS FASTER WITH MOVING THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE AREA. ASIDE FROM SOME UNCERTAINTY IN
TEMPERATURE FORECAST...THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT ISSUES IN THE LONG
TERM. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD OCCUR FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK
WITH DRY CONDITIONS.
BRB
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY/S PATTERN WILL PROMOTE WARM/DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS.
AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL FALL INTO THE 15-20 PERCENT RANGE OVER THE
WESTERN PANHANDLES WITH SUSTAINED WINDS APPROACHING 20 MPH /20 FT/.
HOWEVER CONTINUED MOIST/GREEN VEGETATION WITH NEAR NORMAL ERC/S
DURING THE ONGOING GROWING SEASON WILL PRECLUDE A SIGNIFICANT
WILDLAND FIRE RISK.
LINDLEY
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX 41 62 47 82 42 / 10 5 5 10 20
BEAVER OK 41 62 44 77 47 / 20 5 5 30 50
BOISE CITY OK 39 64 46 77 42 / 10 5 5 30 40
BORGER TX 44 62 52 82 47 / 10 5 5 10 30
BOYS RANCH TX 44 66 50 84 46 / 10 5 0 10 20
CANYON TX 45 64 48 81 45 / 10 5 5 10 20
CLARENDON TX 44 63 46 83 48 / 20 5 5 10 30
DALHART TX 41 63 46 83 42 / 10 0 5 10 30
GUYMON OK 42 63 46 78 46 / 10 5 5 30 40
HEREFORD TX 43 64 48 82 46 / 5 5 5 10 20
LIPSCOMB TX 44 61 47 78 49 / 20 5 5 30 50
PAMPA TX 42 60 49 80 45 / 10 5 5 20 30
SHAMROCK TX 45 63 47 81 51 / 20 5 5 20 50
WELLINGTON TX 48 64 49 82 54 / 20 5 5 20 40
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
10
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1149 AM EDT FRI OCT 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THROUGH THE
MID ATLANTIC WILL KEEP PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS
GOING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACK EASTWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THIS SYSTEM MAY PUSH
SOUTH ON SUNDAY AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT...BUT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE. A MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1148 AM EDT FRIDAY...
ADJUSTED POPS WITH RADAR TRENDS. IN GENERAL...EXTENDED THE
EASTERN EXTENT OF HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE NORTH...EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE MOUNTAINS INTO THE PIEDMONT FOR THIS AFTERNOON. NUDGED UP
QPF FOR THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WEST. LOWERED TEMPERATURES AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST WITH
CLOUDS AND RAIN. MORE CHANGES THIS AFTERNOON...
AS OF 941 AM EDT FRIDAY...
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL COMBINE WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO RESULT IN PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT. SHAPED THE POPS TOWARDS A BLEND
OF THE HRRR AND RNK WRKARW FOR LATE MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
MODIFIED TEMPERATURES WITH LATEST TRENDS AND LEANED LATE MORNING
VALUES TOWARDS LAV GUIDANCE WHICH SEEM TO CAPTURE COOLER READINGS
BEST. SPC DAY ONE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK KEEPS US IN GENERAL THUNDER
WITH THE SEE TEXT FOR THE POTENTIAL OF WINDS TO OUR SOUTHWEST
ACROSS TENNESSEE VALLEY WITH THE BETTER LIFT AND INSTABILITY. MORE
CHANGES LATER THIS MORNING.
AS OF 240 AM EDT FRIDAY...
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS THE FLOW
ALOFT TURNS MORE SW BEHIND EXITING HIGH PRESSURE AND AHEAD OF SURFACE
ENERGY HEADING NE FROM THE WESTERN TN VALLEY. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH
APPROACH OF A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD ACT TO ENHANCE
THE LOW LEVEL FRONT ACROSS THE REGION WITH A QUICK INFLUX OF HIGHER
PWATS OF 1.0-1.5 INCHES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MOST MODELS INCLUDING
THE LATEST SREF CONTINUE TO FOCUS THE CORRIDOR OF HEAVIEST SHOWERS OVER
THE NW WHERE BETTER LIFT LOOKS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE 85H THETA-E
GRADIENT JUST NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT. HOWEVER THIS LIKELY MORESO
THIS EVENING...AND OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE WAVE PASSES OVERHEAD...WITH
MORE WARM ADVECTION DRIVEN SHOWERS TODAY IN THE LINGERING ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT AIDED BY A LEAD WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSE.
CURRENT CONVECTIVE BAND OVER KY ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE HIGHER
DEWPOINT/THETA-E RIDGING LOOKS TO BE THE INIT SHOT OF SHRA THIS MORNING
AS IT SLIDES INTO THE WEST/NW TOWARD 12Z...THEN EAST TO ALONG THE BLUE
RIDGE AND NORTHERN SECTIONS INTO THE AFTERNOON. SOUTHEAST OF THIS
PRECIP EXPECTING MORE HEATING WITH GUIDANCE INDICATING SOME MODEST
INSTABILITY SOUTHERN SECTIONS LATER ON AND ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES
PER STRONGER WARM ADVECTION. THUS PUSHING LIKELY/CAT POPS A BIT FASTER
ACROSS THE WEST INTO THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EAST BY MID/LATE
AFTERNOON WHERE AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDER CHANCES LOOK BEST PENDING
HEATING/MOISTURE. HIGH TEMPS DEPENDENT UPON THE DEGREE OF EARLY CLOUDS
AND EASTWARD EXPANSE OF SHRA GIVEN WARM TEMPS ALOFT. FOR NOW STUCK
CLOSE TO THE MOS CONSENSUS OF MOSTLY 70S...BUFFERED BY 60S FAR NW AND
LOW 80S SE.
GUIDANCE TRACKS A SURFACE WAVE RIGHT ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING AND TO
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE. BEST LIFT AGAIN GETS PINCHED OVER
THE NW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH...LOW PRESSURE OVER VA...AND
THE TIGHT THETA-E GRADIENT ALOFT OVER WEST VA. PROGGED AXIS OF UPPER
DIFFLUENCE WORKING THROUGH THE NW SECTIONS WOULD SUPPORT A SWATH OF
HEAVIER RAIN...ESPCLY GREENBRIER VALLEY/VA HIGHLANDS TONIGHT...BUT
EXACTLY WHERE THAT CORRIDOR SETS UP STILL IFFY AS APPEARS COULD BE
FARTHER NORTH THAN GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. RAINFALL COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS
WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS HEADING OFF TO THE SE BUT STILL SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTIVE THREAT SOUTH/SE IN THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT.
OTRW CAT/LIKELY POPS MAINLY HIGHWAY 460 AND POINTS NORTH AS WELL AS SW
INTO THE NC RIDGES THIS EVENING...TAPERING TO OVERALL CHANCE TO LOW
LIKELYS ACROSS THE NORTH/NE BY DAYBREAK. QPF LOOKS RATHER SIMILAR TO
THE LAST EVENT WITH BETTER THAN AN INCH POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT NW
THIRD WHILE QUICKLY RANGING DOWN TO LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH FAR
SOUTH/SE. SINCE HAVE SEEN A COUPLE DAYS OF DECENT DRYING...AND NOT
EXPECTING RAINFALL RATES TO BE THAT HIGH...WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY FLOOD
WATCHES FOR THE NW AT THIS POINT. OTRW MILDER LOWS UNDER CLOUDS AND
WARM ADVECTION AS MOST WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S AT BEST
OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM EDT FRIDAY...
ON SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION. CONVECTIVE
PARAMETERS OFFER THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO ACCOMPANY
THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BY THAT
TIME...THE FOCUS FOR MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE NEAR AND SOUTH OF
THE NC/VA BORDER. WITH AN AFTERNOON ARRIVAL...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ABLE TO CLIMB IN THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE REGION TO THE UPPER 70S.
REGIONS WEST AND NORTH OF HERE WILL EXPERIENCE THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES SOONER
WITH ACCORDINGLY COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST. LOWER 60S WILL
BE COMMON FOR HIGHS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA.
SATURDAY NIGHT...THE FRONT WILL SINK TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION ALL
WHILE THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.
AN ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS WILL MAKE ITS WAY SOUTH ALONG THE LEE OF
THE APPALACHIANS. LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE COLD FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE TO BUCKLE BACK NORTH WITH PRECIPITATION
RETURNING TO WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...THE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT OFF THE EAST
COAST IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF A DEEPENING TROUGH IN THE
CENTRAL U.S. LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION WILL STRENGTHEN AND
TAKE ON MORE OF A SOUTHERLY FLOW HEADING INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR MODERATING TEMPERATURES AFTER A COOL DAY ON SUNDAY...PLENTY OF
CLOUD COVER...AND CONTINUAL CHANCES OF UPSLOPE RAIN FOCUSED ALONG
THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE WEST AND
EAST.
BY MONDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH AND APPROACHING STRONG COLD FRONT
ARE CURRENTLY PROGGED TO BE ACROSS CENTRAL KY/TN. AS INSTABILITY
INCREASES...THE PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL VERY GUSTY WINDS ON THE
PREFERRED S-SE FLOW DOWNSLOPE REGION BETWEEN ROUGHLY RICHLANDS VA
AND BLUEFIELD WV AS 850 MB FLOW IS PROGGED TO BE ANYWHERE BETWEEN
45 AND 55 KTS. WILL HOLD OFF AT THIS TIME ON THE MAGNITUDE OF THE
WIND AND GUSTS IN THE REGION GIVEN LINGERING QUESTIONS ON MODEL
TIMING AND JET SPECIFICS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT THURSDAY...
GFS AND CANADIAN WERE TRENDING TOWARD THE MORE AMPLIFIED ECMWF ON
THE 00Z RUNS...BUT NOW CUT OFF A 500 MB LOW OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY ON TUESDAY...24 HOURS BEFORE THE ECMWF CLOSES OFF A LOW.
THESE DIFFERENCES HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE TIMING OF THE
STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT CROSSING THROUGH THE REGION. INTENSE
DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM MEANS THAT THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
850MB TEMPERATURES IN THE +14 TO +17 RANGE SURGE NORTH INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WITH ANY SUNSHINE
AT ALL ON TUESDAY MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.
WRAP AROUND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS WITH THE UPPER LOW ON THE
COLD SIDE OF THE FRONT MAY LINGER IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THURSDAY.
DUE TO UPSLOPE WINDS IN THE WEST AS WELL AS COLD POOL ALOFT...WILL
KEEP A SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST FOR THE
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 645 AM EDT FRIDAY...
BAND OF CONVECTION HAS NOW PUSHED ACROSS KBLF AND WILL AFFECT KLWB
IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AND MAY SCRAPE BY NEAR KBCB/KROA SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE. THINK MOST OF THE DEEPER CONVECTION WILL BE EAST OF
KBLF BY RELEASE TIME BUT WILL MAINTAIN MVFR VSBYS IN SHRA AND KEEP
IN A VCTS FOR ADDED UPSTREAM CONVECTION TO THE WEST. ALSO DUE TO
THE AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTION...BEEFED UP SHRA/TSRA AT KLWB FOR
AN HOUR OR SO EARLY THIS MORNING AND INCLUDED VCSH AT KBCB/KROA.
OTRW PATCHY FOG MAY ALSO ALLOW FOR BRIEF MVFR THROUGH ABOUT
14Z/10AM ESPCLY WHERE WESTERN SHRA WONT AFFECT EARLY ON.
OTRW BROAD LIFT AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL WAVE CROSSING THE TN
VALLEY INCREASES ACROSS THE NW THROUGH THE MORNING WITH THE BEST
SHOWER COVERAGE LIKELY AFFECTING SPOTS FROM THE BLUE RIDGE
WESTWARD INTO THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER SOME OF THIS COVERAGE GIVEN
THE FAST FLOW ALOFT MAY PUSH EAST OF A KROA-KHSP LINE AND AFFECT
KLYH WITH AT LEAST SOME LIGHTER VFR SHOWERS BY MIDDAY. EXPECT
SHOWERS TO BE MORE ISOLATED AROUND KDAN INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH
THE GRADIENT IN DEEPER MOISTURE JUST TO THE NW. OVERALL SHOULD BE
MAINLY VFR EXCEPT AT KBLF/KLWB WHERE PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE ALL
DAY INCLUDING CLUSTERS OF EMBEDDED DEEPER CONVECTION. ISOLATED
AFTERNOON STORMS COULD ALSO OCCUR OVER THE PIEDMONT SO ADDED IN A
VCTS AT KDAN/KROA AND KEPT IN AT KLWB/KBLF AS NEXT BATCH OF
CONVECTION NOW OVER TN/KY PUSHES NE.
SURFACE WAVE ARRIVES THIS EVENING AND SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN AN AXIS OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHRA ESPCLY
WESTERN SITES. THIS COULD RESULT IN MORE EXPANSIVE MVFR WITH
PERIODS OF IFR POSSIBLE AS CIGS LOWER FURTHER THIS EVENING. MAY
ALSO SEE MVFR WITH OCNL IFR DEVELOP ELSEWHERE OVERNIGHT ESPCLY AS
SHOWERS START TO TAPER IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING WAVE SO WENT
BELOW GUIDANCE FOR DEGREE OF LOWER CIGS/VSBYS OVERNIGHT WHEN
THINGS SHOULD BE MORE SATURATED.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
COMBINATION OF A FRONT ACROSS THE REGION AND WEAK DISTURBANCES
RIDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL MAKE FOR PERIODS OF SUB- VFR OVER
THE WEEKEND AS THE FRONT REMAINS NEARBY WHILE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES SETTING UP A WEDGE
SCENARIO BY SUNDAY. INTERVALS OF PASSING SHOWERS MAY ALSO MAKE FOR
PERIODS OF MVFR TO IFR VSBYS IN RAIN/FOG OVER THE WEEKEND.
THE WEDGE APPEARS TO ERODE BY NEXT MONDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASING. MODELS FAVOR WETTER WEATHER NEXT WEEK WHICH WOULD KEEP
TERMINALS IN SUB VFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES ESPCLY TUESDAY WHEN
ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT COULD BRING HEAVY RAINFALL INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/KK/SK
NEAR TERM...JH/KK
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...CF/JH/WP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
941 AM EDT FRI OCT 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THROUGH THE
MID ATLANTIC WILL KEEP PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS
GOING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACK EASTWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THIS SYSTEM MAY PUSH
SOUTH ON SUNDAY AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT...BUT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE. A MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 941 AM EDT FRIDAY...
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL COMBINE WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO RESULT IN PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT. SHAPED THE POPS TOWARDS A BLEND
OF THE HRRR AND RNK WRKARW FOR LATE MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
MODIFIED TEMPERATURES WITH LATEST TRENDS AND LEANED LATE MORNING
VALUES TOWARDS LAV GUIDANCE WHICH SEEM TO CAPTURE COOLER READINGS
BEST. SPC DAY ONE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK KEEPS US IN GENERAL THUNDER
WITH THE SEE TEXT FOR THE POTENTIAL OF WINDS TO OUR SOUTHWEST
ACROSS TENNESSEE VALLEY WITH THE BETTER LIFT AND INSTABILITY. MORE
CHANGES LATER THIS MORNING.
AS OF 240 AM EDT FRIDAY...
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS THE FLOW
ALOFT TURNS MORE SW BEHIND EXITING HIGH PRESSURE AND AHEAD OF SURFACE
ENERGY HEADING NE FROM THE WESTERN TN VALLEY. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH
APPROACH OF A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD ACT TO ENHANCE
THE LOW LEVEL FRONT ACROSS THE REGION WITH A QUICK INFLUX OF HIGHER
PWATS OF 1.0-1.5 INCHES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MOST MODELS INCLUDING
THE LATEST SREF CONTINUE TO FOCUS THE CORRIDOR OF HEAVIEST SHOWERS OVER
THE NW WHERE BETTER LIFT LOOKS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE 85H THETA-E
GRADIENT JUST NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT. HOWEVER THIS LIKELY MORESO
THIS EVENING...AND OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE WAVE PASSES OVERHEAD...WITH
MORE WARM ADVECTION DRIVEN SHOWERS TODAY IN THE LINGERING ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT AIDED BY A LEAD WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSE.
CURRENT CONVECTIVE BAND OVER KY ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE HIGHER
DEWPOINT/THETA-E RIDGING LOOKS TO BE THE INIT SHOT OF SHRA THIS MORNING
AS IT SLIDES INTO THE WEST/NW TOWARD 12Z...THEN EAST TO ALONG THE BLUE
RIDGE AND NORTHERN SECTIONS INTO THE AFTERNOON. SOUTHEAST OF THIS
PRECIP EXPECTING MORE HEATING WITH GUIDANCE INDICATING SOME MODEST
INSTABILITY SOUTHERN SECTIONS LATER ON AND ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES
PER STRONGER WARM ADVECTION. THUS PUSHING LIKELY/CAT POPS A BIT FASTER
ACROSS THE WEST INTO THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EAST BY MID/LATE
AFTERNOON WHERE AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDER CHANCES LOOK BEST PENDING
HEATING/MOISTURE. HIGH TEMPS DEPENDENT UPON THE DEGREE OF EARLY CLOUDS
AND EASTWARD EXPANSE OF SHRA GIVEN WARM TEMPS ALOFT. FOR NOW STUCK
CLOSE TO THE MOS CONSENSUS OF MOSTLY 70S...BUFFERED BY 60S FAR NW AND
LOW 80S SE.
GUIDANCE TRACKS A SURFACE WAVE RIGHT ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING AND TO
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE. BEST LIFT AGAIN GETS PINCHED OVER
THE NW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH...LOW PRESSURE OVER VA...AND
THE TIGHT THETA-E GRADIENT ALOFT OVER WEST VA. PROGGED AXIS OF UPPER
DIFFLUENCE WORKING THROUGH THE NW SECTIONS WOULD SUPPORT A SWATH OF
HEAVIER RAIN...ESPCLY GREENBRIER VALLEY/VA HIGHLANDS TONIGHT...BUT
EXACTLY WHERE THAT CORRIDOR SETS UP STILL IFFY AS APPEARS COULD BE
FARTHER NORTH THAN GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. RAINFALL COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS
WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS HEADING OFF TO THE SE BUT STILL SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTIVE THREAT SOUTH/SE IN THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT.
OTRW CAT/LIKELY POPS MAINLY HIGHWAY 460 AND POINTS NORTH AS WELL AS SW
INTO THE NC RIDGES THIS EVENING...TAPERING TO OVERALL CHANCE TO LOW
LIKELYS ACROSS THE NORTH/NE BY DAYBREAK. QPF LOOKS RATHER SIMILAR TO
THE LAST EVENT WITH BETTER THAN AN INCH POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT NW
THIRD WHILE QUICKLY RANGING DOWN TO LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH FAR
SOUTH/SE. SINCE HAVE SEEN A COUPLE DAYS OF DECENT DRYING...AND NOT
EXPECTING RAINFALL RATES TO BE THAT HIGH...WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY FLOOD
WATCHES FOR THE NW AT THIS POINT. OTRW MILDER LOWS UNDER CLOUDS AND
WARM ADVECTION AS MOST WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S AT BEST
OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM EDT FRIDAY...
ON SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION. CONVECTIVE
PARAMETERS OFFER THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO ACCOMPANY
THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BY THAT
TIME...THE FOCUS FOR MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE NEAR AND SOUTH OF
THE NC/VA BORDER. WITH AN AFTERNOON ARRIVAL...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ABLE TO CLIMB IN THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE REGION TO THE UPPER 70S.
REGIONS WEST AND NORTH OF HERE WILL EXPERIENCE THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES SOONER
WITH ACCORDINGLY COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST. LOWER 60S WILL
BE COMMON FOR HIGHS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA.
SATURDAY NIGHT...THE FRONT WILL SINK TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION ALL
WHILE THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.
AN ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS WILL MAKE ITS WAY SOUTH ALONG THE LEE OF
THE APPALACHIANS. LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE COLD FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE TO BUCKLE BACK NORTH WITH PRECIPITATION
RETURNING TO WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...THE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT OFF THE EAST
COAST IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF A DEEPENING TROUGH IN THE
CENTRAL U.S. LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION WILL STRENGTHEN AND
TAKE ON MORE OF A SOUTHERLY FLOW HEADING INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR MODERATING TEMPERATURES AFTER A COOL DAY ON SUNDAY...PLENTY OF
CLOUD COVER...AND CONTINUAL CHANCES OF UPSLOPE RAIN FOCUSED ALONG
THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE WEST AND
EAST.
BY MONDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH AND APPROACHING STRONG COLD FRONT
ARE CURRENTLY PROGGED TO BE ACROSS CENTRAL KY/TN. AS INSTABILITY
INCREASES...THE PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL VERY GUSTY WINDS ON THE
PREFERRED S-SE FLOW DOWNSLOPE REGION BETWEEN ROUGHLY RICHLANDS VA
AND BLUEFIELD WV AS 850 MB FLOW IS PROGGED TO BE ANYWHERE BETWEEN
45 AND 55 KTS. WILL HOLD OFF AT THIS TIME ON THE MAGNITUDE OF THE
WIND AND GUSTS IN THE REGION GIVEN LINGERING QUESTIONS ON MODEL
TIMING AND JET SPECIFICS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT THURSDAY...
GFS AND CANADIAN WERE TRENDING TOWARD THE MORE AMPLIFIED ECMWF ON
THE 00Z RUNS...BUT NOW CUT OFF A 500 MB LOW OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY ON TUESDAY...24 HOURS BEFORE THE ECMWF CLOSES OFF A LOW.
THESE DIFFERENCES HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE TIMING OF THE
STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT CROSSING THROUGH THE REGION. INTENSE
DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM MEANS THAT THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
850MB TEMPERATURES IN THE +14 TO +17 RANGE SURGE NORTH INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WITH ANY SUNSHINE
AT ALL ON TUESDAY MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.
WRAP AROUND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS WITH THE UPPER LOW ON THE
COLD SIDE OF THE FRONT MAY LINGER IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THURSDAY.
DUE TO UPSLOPE WINDS IN THE WEST AS WELL AS COLD POOL ALOFT...WILL
KEEP A SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST FOR THE
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 645 AM EDT FRIDAY...
BAND OF CONVECTION HAS NOW PUSHED ACROSS KBLF AND WILL AFFECT KLWB
IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AND MAY SCRAPE BY NEAR KBCB/KROA SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE. THINK MOST OF THE DEEPER CONVECTION WILL BE EAST OF
KBLF BY RELEASE TIME BUT WILL MAINTAIN MVFR VSBYS IN SHRA AND KEEP
IN A VCTS FOR ADDED UPSTREAM CONVECTION TO THE WEST. ALSO DUE TO
THE AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTION...BEEFED UP SHRA/TSRA AT KLWB FOR
AN HOUR OR SO EARLY THIS MORNING AND INCLUDED VCSH AT KBCB/KROA.
OTRW PATCHY FOG MAY ALSO ALLOW FOR BRIEF MVFR THROUGH ABOUT
14Z/10AM ESPCLY WHERE WESTERN SHRA WONT AFFECT EARLY ON.
OTRW BROAD LIFT AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL WAVE CROSSING THE TN
VALLEY INCREASES ACROSS THE NW THROUGH THE MORNING WITH THE BEST
SHOWER COVERAGE LIKELY AFFECTING SPOTS FROM THE BLUE RIDGE
WESTWARD INTO THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER SOME OF THIS COVERAGE GIVEN
THE FAST FLOW ALOFT MAY PUSH EAST OF A KROA-KHSP LINE AND AFFECT
KLYH WITH AT LEAST SOME LIGHTER VFR SHOWERS BY MIDDAY. EXPECT
SHOWERS TO BE MORE ISOLATED AROUND KDAN INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH
THE GRADIENT IN DEEPER MOISTURE JUST TO THE NW. OVERALL SHOULD BE
MAINLY VFR EXCEPT AT KBLF/KLWB WHERE PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE ALL
DAY INCLUDING CLUSTERS OF EMBEDDED DEEPER CONVECTION. ISOLATED
AFTERNOON STORMS COULD ALSO OCCUR OVER THE PIEDMONT SO ADDED IN A
VCTS AT KDAN/KROA AND KEPT IN AT KLWB/KBLF AS NEXT BATCH OF
CONVECTION NOW OVER TN/KY PUSHES NE.
SURFACE WAVE ARRIVES THIS EVENING AND SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN AN AXIS OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHRA ESPCLY
WESTERN SITES. THIS COULD RESULT IN MORE EXPANSIVE MVFR WITH
PERIODS OF IFR POSSIBLE AS CIGS LOWER FURTHER THIS EVENING. MAY
ALSO SEE MVFR WITH OCNL IFR DEVELOP ELSEWHERE OVERNIGHT ESPCLY AS
SHOWERS START TO TAPER IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING WAVE SO WENT
BELOW GUIDANCE FOR DEGREE OF LOWER CIGS/VSBYS OVERNIGHT WHEN
THINGS SHOULD BE MORE SATURATED.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
COMBINATION OF A FRONT ACROSS THE REGION AND WEAK DISTURBANCES
RIDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL MAKE FOR PERIODS OF SUB- VFR OVER
THE WEEKEND AS THE FRONT REMAINS NEARBY WHILE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES SETTING UP A WEDGE
SCENARIO BY SUNDAY. INTERVALS OF PASSING SHOWERS MAY ALSO MAKE FOR
PERIODS OF MVFR TO IFR VSBYS IN RAIN/FOG OVER THE WEEKEND.
THE WEDGE APPEARS TO ERODE BY NEXT MONDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASING. MODELS FAVOR WETTER WEATHER NEXT WEEK WHICH WOULD KEEP
TERMINALS IN SUB VFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES ESPCLY TUESDAY WHEN
ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT COULD BRING HEAVY RAINFALL INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/KK/SK
NEAR TERM...JH/KK
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...CF/JH/WP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1053 AM CDT FRI OCT 10 2014
.UPDATE...
QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE SOME HIGH
CLOUDS MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA.
NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL WINDS AND DELTA T VALUES CONTINUE TO FAVOR
LAKE EFFECT CLOUD FORMATION OVER LAKE MICHIGAN...AND MAY SEE SOME
OF THESE CLOUDS REACH THE SHORE FROM MILWAUKEE SOUTH. AREA
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE AIR MASS IS TOO DRY FOR LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS.
HIGHS SHOULD REACH INTO THE MID 50S IN MOST OF THE AREA...PER 925
MB TEMPERATURE TRENDS.
&&
.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...
VFR CATEGORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SLIDE
EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS TIME.
MAY SEE SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AT MILWAUKEE AND KENOSHA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL PUSH
EAST THROUGH THE AREA AS WELL DURING THIS TIME.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND SOUTHEASTERLY BY THE
AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CDT FRI OCT 10 2014/
SHORT TERM...
TODAY AND TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...HIGH
ENOUGH THIN SPOTS IN CIRRUS OVER SRN HALF OF CWA OVERNIGHT TO ALLOW
TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 30S AWAY FROM LAKE MI. FROST ADVY WL REMAIN
IN EFFECT UNTIL 13Z THIS MRNG.
LOW LEVEL WINDS TURNING MORE NORTHEAST OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA WHILE
WINDS REMAIN MORE NORTH TO NORTHWEST IN THE NORTH AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE NOSES INTO SRN WI. MODIS IMAGERY FROM THU HAD LAKE SFC
TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S...HOWEVER A SMALL AREA OF
UPWELLING HAD CAUSED COOLER TEMPS IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS NORTH OF
MILWAUKEE. BURST OF LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION WL RESULT IN THE
DELTA-T INCREASING TO 15C TODAY. FORTUNATELY...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SHORE REMAIN WEAK SO NO -SHRA ARE
EXPECTED. HOWEVER POSSIBLE THAT SOME LAKE EFFECT LOWER CLOUDS MAY
AFFECT FAR SOUTHEAST THIS MRNG...DISSIPATING THIS AFTN. WL KEEP P/S
WORDING IN THE FAR SOUTH THIS MRNG...GIVING WAY TO MORE AFTN
SUNSHINE AS TEMPS RECOVER INTO THE 50S.
MARINE LAYER WL AGAIN KEEP TEMPS A LITTLE WARMER BY THE LAKE TNGT
DESPITE LAND BREEZE DEVELOPING. FARTHER INLAND...SIMILAR LOW LEVEL
TEMPS AND BOUNDARY LAYER WIND CONDITIONS SHOULD RESULT IN ANOTHER
NIGHT OF TEMPS FALLING MOSTLY TO THE LOW TO MID 30S. NO CIRRUS IS
EXPECTED SO COLDER TEMPS ARE LIKELY IN THE SOUTH AS WELL. NEARBY
WARMER LAKE AND URBAN HEAT ISLAND WL KEEP KFLD AND KMSN SLIGHTLY
WARMER AS WELL. HENCE ANOTHER FROST ADVY WL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR
TNGT.
SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WI SATURDAY MORNING WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. VERY DRY AIR
OVER THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. ALTHOUGH EXPECT A
FEW DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT... SO A LAKE BREEZE
IS FORECAST ONCE AGAIN. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TODAY.
LONG TERM...
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
A STRONG UPPER JET WILL DIVE INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL CAUSE A 500MB TROUGH
TO AMPLIFY OVER THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A
PLUME OF MOISTURE WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE MIDWEST ON THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH SUNDAY... REACHING SOUTHERN WI IN THE
AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE TRENDING DRIER WITH THIS INITIAL SURGE OF QPF
INTO SOUTHERN WI... SO KEPT THE SMALL CHANCE POPS.
THE NAM AND GFS MAINTAIN LIGHT QPF OVER SOUTHERN WI SUNDAY NIGHT
WHILE THE LATEST 00Z ECMWF CAME IN DRY WITH THE LULL BETWEEN
SHORTWAVE AND UPPER JET ENERGY. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE
INCREASING SUNDAY... SO EXPECT HIGHS SIMILAR TO SAT AND SUN NIGHT
LOWS A LITTLE MORE MILD.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
MODELS ARE TRENDING SLOWER WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS THE MIDWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS MEANS A DELAYED ONSET OF
THE HEAVIER RAIN IN SOUTHERN WI... AND ALSO A LONGER PERIOD OF LIGHT
RAIN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM.
MONDAY... RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE WARM SECTOR IN SOUTHEAST WI
DUE TO UPPER DIVERGENCE FROM THE UPPER JET AND SHORTWAVES OUT AHEAD
OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN IN SOUTHERN WI
NOW LOOKS LIKE MONDAY EVENING AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW TRACKS INTO THE
MIDWEST AND THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET IS OVERHEAD.
IT WOULD BE RIGHT ALONG THE SURFACE INVERTED TROUGH AND 850MB
BAROCLINIC ZONE.
DUE TO THE SLOWER SYSTEM... WINDS SHOULD STAY SOUTH LONGER IN
SOUTHEAST WI AND ALLOW FOR WARMER TEMPS THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
THE 00Z ECMWF MODEL SOLUTION CAME IN WITH A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS. IT CLOSES OFF THE 500MB LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST TUE NIGHT AND HAS IT MEANDER EAST THROUGH
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK. THE GFS ALSO CLOSES OFF THE UPPER LOW...BUT NOT AS QUICKLY.
GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS LEAN TOWARD THIS CUTOFF LOW SOLUTION AS WELL.
THEREFORE... WE LEANED TOWARD THE LATEST ECMWF TO GENERATE POPS IN
SOUTHERN WI AND THE REGION. AFTER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES... WE OPTED TO ADD SMALL CHANCE POPS TO THE FORECAST FOR TUE
NIGHT THROUGH WED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UPPER LOW HANGING AROUND THE
AREA LONGER. WE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AS WELL. IT IS POSSIBLE THE
UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED LIGHT RAIN WOULD LINGER OVER SOUTHEAST WI
THROUGH THU.
AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE FOR BULK OF THIS TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR A PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT MVFR CLOUDS TO
AFFECT KMKE/KENW TAFS THIS MRNG AS INDICATED BY BOTH RAP SOUNDINGS
AND HRRR. NOT SEEING MUCH LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT OVER LAKE MI BUT
CIRRUS OBSCURING LOWER LEVELS. WL KEEP AN EYE ON 11-3.9 MICRON
PRODUCT BUT FOR NOW WL CONTINUE VFR CONDITIONS THIS MRNG.
MARINE...BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH WINDS TURNING
MORE TO THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AND WEAK SURGE OF LOW LEVEL COLD AIR
ADVECTION. WINDS BRIEFLY GUSTED TO 25KTS AT SGNW3 AROUND 06Z BUT
HAVE SINCE DIMINISHED TO BLO 20KTS. CARGO VESSEL JOSEPH BLOCK
LOCATED ABOUT 15NM EAST OF MKE ONLY REPORTING 11KT WINDS. EXPC
BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS TO WORK ITS WAY SOUTH ALONG NEARSHORE
WATERS EARLY THIS MRNG...HOWEVER WINDS WL SETTLE BACK DOWN TO 5 TO
15 KTS FOR MAJORITY OF THE DAY. NO SMALL CRAFT ADVY PLANNED AT THIS
TIME.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WOOD
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MRC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
347 AM CDT FRI OCT 10 2014
.SHORT TERM...
TODAY AND TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...HIGH
ENOUGH THIN SPOTS IN CIRRUS OVER SRN HALF OF CWA OVERNIGHT TO ALLOW
TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 30S AWAY FROM LAKE MI. FROST ADVY WL REMAIN
IN EFFECT UNTIL 13Z THIS MRNG.
LOW LEVEL WINDS TURNING MORE NORTHEAST OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA WHILE
WINDS REMAIN MORE NORTH TO NORTHWEST IN THE NORTH AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE NOSES INTO SRN WI. MODIS IMAGERY FROM THU HAD LAKE SFC
TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S...HOWEVER A SMALL AREA OF
UPWELLING HAD CAUSED COOLER TEMPS IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS NORTH OF
MILWAUKEE. BURST OF LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION WL RESULT IN THE
DELTA-T INCREASING TO 15C TODAY. FORTUNATELY...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SHORE REMAIN WEAK SO NO -SHRA ARE
EXPECTED. HOWEVER POSSIBLE THAT SOME LAKE EFFECT LOWER CLOUDS MAY
AFFECT FAR SOUTHEAST THIS MRNG...DISSIPATING THIS AFTN. WL KEEP P/S
WORDING IN THE FAR SOUTH THIS MRNG...GIVING WAY TO MORE AFTN
SUNSHINE AS TEMPS RECOVER INTO THE 50S.
MARINE LAYER WL AGAIN KEEP TEMPS A LITTLE WARMER BY THE LAKE TNGT
DESPITE LAND BREEZE DEVELOPING. FARTHER INLAND...SIMILAR LOW LEVEL
TEMPS AND BOUNDARY LAYER WIND CONDITIONS SHOULD RESULT IN ANOTHER
NIGHT OF TEMPS FALLING MOSTLY TO THE LOW TO MID 30S. NO CIRRUS IS
EXPECTED SO COLDER TEMPS ARE LIKELY IN THE SOUTH AS WELL. NEARBY
WARMER LAKE AND URBAN HEAT ISLAND WL KEEP KFLD AND KMSN SLIGHTLY
WARMER AS WELL. HENCE ANOTHER FROST ADVY WL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR
TNGT.
SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WI SATURDAY MORNING WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. VERY DRY AIR
OVER THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. ALTHOUGH EXPECT A
FEW DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT... SO A LAKE BREEZE
IS FORECAST ONCE AGAIN. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TODAY.
.LONG TERM...
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
A STRONG UPPER JET WILL DIVE INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL CAUSE A 500MB TROUGH
TO AMPLIFY OVER THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A
PLUME OF MOISTURE WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE MIDWEST ON THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH SUNDAY... REACHING SOUTHERN WI IN THE
AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE TRENDING DRIER WITH THIS INITIAL SURGE OF QPF
INTO SOUTHERN WI... SO KEPT THE SMALL CHANCE POPS.
THE NAM AND GFS MAINTAIN LIGHT QPF OVER SOUTHERN WI SUNDAY NIGHT
WHILE THE LATEST 00Z ECMWF CAME IN DRY WITH THE LULL BETWEEN
SHORTWAVE AND UPPER JET ENERGY. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE
INCREASING SUNDAY... SO EXPECT HIGHS SIMILAR TO SAT AND SUN NIGHT
LOWS A LITTLE MORE MILD.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
MODELS ARE TRENDING SLOWER WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS THE MIDWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS MEANS A DELAYED ONSET OF
THE HEAVIER RAIN IN SOUTHERN WI... AND ALSO A LONGER PERIOD OF LIGHT
RAIN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM.
MONDAY... RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE WARM SECTOR IN SOUTHEAST WI
DUE TO UPPER DIVERGENCE FROM THE UPPER JET AND SHORTWAVES OUT AHEAD
OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN IN SOUTHERN WI
NOW LOOKS LIKE MONDAY EVENING AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW TRACKS INTO THE
MIDWEST AND THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET IS OVERHEAD.
IT WOULD BE RIGHT ALONG THE SURFACE INVERTED TROUGH AND 850MB
BAROCLINIC ZONE.
DUE TO THE SLOWER SYSTEM... WINDS SHOULD STAY SOUTH LONGER IN
SOUTHEAST WI AND ALLOW FOR WARMER TEMPS THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
THE 00Z ECMWF MODEL SOLUTION CAME IN WITH A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS. IT CLOSES OFF THE 500MB LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST TUE NIGHT AND HAS IT MEANDER EAST THROUGH
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK. THE GFS ALSO CLOSES OFF THE UPPER LOW...BUT NOT AS QUICKLY.
GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS LEAN TOWARD THIS CUTOFF LOW SOLUTION AS WELL.
THEREFORE... WE LEANED TOWARD THE LATEST ECMWF TO GENERATE POPS IN
SOUTHERN WI AND THE REGION. AFTER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES... WE OPTED TO ADD SMALL CHANCE POPS TO THE FORECAST FOR TUE
NIGHT THROUGH WED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UPPER LOW HANGING AROUND THE
AREA LONGER. WE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AS WELL. IT IS POSSIBLE THE
UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED LIGHT RAIN WOULD LINGER OVER SOUTHEAST WI
THROUGH THU.
&&
.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...
VFR CONDITONS TO CONTINUE FOR BULK OF THIS TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER THERE
IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR A PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT MVFR CLOUDS TO AFFECT
KMKE/KENW TAFS THIS MRNG AS INDICATED BY BOTH RAP SOUNDINGS AND
HRRR. NOT SEEING MUCH LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT OVER LAKE MI BUT CIRRUS
OBSCURING LOWER LEVELS. WL KEEP AN EYE ON 11-3.9 MICRON PRODUCT BUT
FOR NOW WL CONTINUE VFR CONDITIONS THIS MRNG.
&&
.MARINE...BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH WINDS TURNING
MORE TO THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AND WEAK SURGE OF LOW LEVEL COLD AIR
ADVECTION. WINDS BRIEFLY GUSTED TO 25KTS AT SGNW3 AROUND 06Z BUT
HAVE SINCE DIMINISHED TO BLO 20KTS. CARGO VESSEL JOSEPH BLOCK
LOCATED ABOUT 15NM EAST OF MKE ONLY REPORTING 11KT WINDS. EXPC
BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS TO WORK ITS WAY SOUTH ALONG NEARSHORE
WATERS EARLY THIS MRNG...HOWEVER WINDS WL SETTLE BACK DOWN TO 5 TO
15 KTS FOR MAJORITY OF THE DAY. NO SMALL CRAFT ADVY PLANNED AT THIS
TIME.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ046-047-051-
052-056>060-062>072.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MRC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1116 AM MDT FRI OCT 10 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT FRI OCT 10 2014
09Z SFC CHART DEPICTS 1028MB SFC HI OVER THE DAKOTAS WITH AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS WEST TEXAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF
HURRICANE SIMON. IN BETWEEN WINDS HAVE SHIFTED FROM THE NE LAST
EVENING TO SE THIS MORNING. THIS IS A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR STRATUS
ACROSS THE ERN PLAINS AND FOG WHERE THIS CLOUD DECK INTERCEPTS THE
HIER TERRAIN. THATS WHAT IS OCCURRING THIS MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD
500-1500 FT CEILINGS OVR THE ERN PLAINS AND AREAS OF FOG OVR THE
INTERSTATE 80 SUMMIT. PROGD SOUNDINGS AND LATEST HRRR DATA SHOW THIS
AREA OF CLOUDS WILL HOLD ON AT LEAST THRU EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...
ALTHOUGH THE FOG SHOULD LIFT OVER THE SUMMIT BEFORE THAT TIME. RAIN
FROM SIMON HAS STRUGGLED TO DEVELOP THIS FAR NORTH AND EXPECT LITTLE
IF ANY ADDL PRECIP THRU THE MORNING. ALTHOUGH DID LEAVE SOME LOW
CHANCES OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT ERN FOOTHILLS THIS MORNING
SHOULD A WEAK SHOWER OR POCKET OF DRIZZLE DEVELOP. CONFIDENCE IS LOW
HOWEVER FOR THAT TO OCCUR. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER COOL DAY AHEAD WITH
HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE 50S AT MOST LOCALES. A FEW LOW 60S WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER VALLEY AND AREAS THAT WILL CLEAR
OUT FIRST ACROSS NRN AND WRN ZONES.
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROF
WHICH WILL IMPACT THE AREA ON SUNDAY. SATURDAY OVERALL SHOULD BE
NICE AS PRESSURES FALL IN THE LEE. ADIABATIC DOWNSLOPE WARMING
SHOULD AID IN BOOSTING TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE.
HIGHS WILL REACH THE 60S WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...WITH 70S OVR
THE ERN PLAINS. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHEAST WYOMING...THOUGH THE STRONGEST WILL BE NR ARLINGTON WHERE
GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED. BOTH THE NAM/GFS ALSO PAINT A
SMALL RIBBON OF INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE PRESSURE TROF...EVEN
DEVELOPING AN UPDRAFT OVR ERN LARAMIE....KIMBALL AND CHEYENNE
COUNTIES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
OTHERWISE...MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD
FRONT...NOW NOT UNTIL AROUND 3 AM SUNDAY MORNING FOR EAST-CENTRAL
WYOMING AND 9 AM TO REACH THE WY/CO STATELINE. PRECIP WILL LAG THE
SFC FRONT BY 50-75 MILES DEVELOPING IN AN AREA OF MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS. AS SUCH PRECIPITATION WILL PUSH INTO EAST CENTRAL
WYOMING AND THE NRN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE BETWEEN 6-9 AM AND THRU THE
REST OF THE AREA BY EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO
AROUND 7500 FEET FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.
ELEVATIONS ABOVE THIS AREA MAY SEE A QUICK FEW INCHES OF SNOW.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVENESS OF THE SYSTEM DO NOT ANTICIPATE
IT TO NECESSITATE A WINTER HIGHLIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL DISSIPATE
QUICKLY LATE IN THE DAY ON SUNDAY....WITH DRYING CONDITIONS SUNDAY
NIGHT. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE 20 DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO
SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S WEST AND 50S EAST.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT FRI OCT 10 2014
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FEATURE RATHER QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS.
HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON MON. 700MB
TEMPS ARE STILL COOL AT AROUND -1C AND NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE
BREEZY THROUGH THE EARLY AFTN ACROSS THE PLAINS. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
WILL MOVE OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURRING.
TEMPS ON TUES WILL BE AROUND 15 DEGREES WARMER THAN MON.
SOUTHWESTERLY LLVL WINDS STRENGTHEN ON WED AS A LEE TROUGH
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PLAINS AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER
IDAHO. IT WILL BE WINDY ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS
TO THE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. WED WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST
DAY WITH 700MB TEMPS OF 6-10C. THERE IS SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON
THURS REGARDING THE AMPLITUDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AS IT MOVES OVER
WY. THE GFS IS DEEPER AND WOULD RESULT IN A BIGGER COOLDOWN ALONG
WITH STRONGER POST FRONTAL WESTERLY WINDS DURING THE DAY. THE ECMWF
ON THE OTHER HAND LIFTS THE TROUGH OVER MT WITH LESS COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND WEAKER WINDS. BOTH SOLNS ARE DRY BEHIND THE FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1116 AM MDT FRI OCT 10 2014
MODEST MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW LIKELY TO KEEP LIFR TO IFR CIGS AROUND
KCYS INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH SLOW RISE THROUGH MVFR TO VFR AS THE
AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. ELSEWHERE OVER THE AREA VFR EXPECTED THROUGH
SAT MORNING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT FRI OCT 10 2014
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL AGAIN BE MINIMAL TODAY AS COOL
TEMPERATURES AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS LIMIT ANY ATMOSPHERIC DRYING.
SATURDAY WILL PROVIDE THE ONLY SOMEWHAT HEIGHTEN DAY OF FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS AS HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE 60S AND 70S...WHILE
HUMIDITIES FALL TO CLOSE TO 20 PERCENT. WINDS WILL ALSO TURN BREEZY
TURNING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING LOCATIONS AS WELL.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE DISTRICTS SUNDAY MORNING
PRODUCING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AND A RETURN TO MORE
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HAHN
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...RE
FIRE WEATHER...HAHN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
540 AM MDT FRI OCT 10 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT FRI OCT 10 2014
09Z SFC CHART DEPICTS 1028MB SFC HI OVER THE DAKOTAS WITH AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS WEST TEXAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF
HURRICANE SIMON. IN BETWEEN WINDS HAVE SHIFTED FROM THE NE LAST
EVENING TO SE THIS MORNING. THIS IS A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR STRATUS
ACROSS THE ERN PLAINS AND FOG WHERE THIS CLOUD DECK INTERCEPTS THE
HIER TERRAIN. THATS WHAT IS OCCURRING THIS MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD
500-1500 FT CEILINGS OVR THE ERN PLAINS AND AREAS OF FOG OVR THE
INTERSTATE 80 SUMMIT. PROGD SOUNDINGS AND LATEST HRRR DATA SHOW THIS
AREA OF CLOUDS WILL HOLD ON AT LEAST THRU EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...
ALTHOUGH THE FOG SHOULD LIFT OVER THE SUMMIT BEFORE THAT TIME. RAIN
FROM SIMON HAS STRUGGLED TO DEVELOP THIS FAR NORTH AND EXPECT LITTLE
IF ANY ADDL PRECIP THRU THE MORNING. ALTHOUGH DID LEAVE SOME LOW
CHANCES OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT ERN FOOTHILLS THIS MORNING
SHOULD A WEAK SHOWER OR POCKET OF DRIZZLE DEVELOP. CONFIDENCE IS LOW
HOWEVER FOR THAT TO OCCUR. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER COOL DAY AHEAD WITH
HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE 50S AT MOST LOCALES. A FEW LOW 60S WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER VALLEY AND AREAS THAT WILL CLEAR
OUT FIRST ACROSS NRN AND WRN ZONES.
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROF
WHICH WILL IMPACT THE AREA ON SUNDAY. SATURDAY OVERALL SHOULD BE
NICE AS PRESSURES FALL IN THE LEE. ADIABATIC DOWNSLOPE WARMING
SHOULD AID IN BOOSTING TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE.
HIGHS WILL REACH THE 60S WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...WITH 70S OVR
THE ERN PLAINS. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHEAST WYOMING...THOUGH THE STRONGEST WILL BE NR ARLINGTON WHERE
GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED. BOTH THE NAM/GFS ALSO PAINT A
SMALL RIBBON OF INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE PRESSURE TROF...EVEN
DEVELOPING AN UPDRAFT OVR ERN LARAMIE....KIMBALL AND CHEYENNE
COUNTIES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
OTHERWISE...MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD
FRONT...NOW NOT UNTIL AROUND 3 AM SUNDAY MORNING FOR EAST-CENTRAL
WYOMING AND 9 AM TO REACH THE WY/CO STATELINE. PRECIP WILL LAG THE
SFC FRONT BY 50-75 MILES DEVELOPING IN AN AREA OF MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS. AS SUCH PRECIPITATION WILL PUSH INTO EAST CENTRAL
WYOMING AND THE NRN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE BETWEEN 6-9 AM AND THRU THE
REST OF THE AREA BY EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO
AROUND 7500 FEET FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.
ELEVATIONS ABOVE THIS AREA MAY SEE A QUICK FEW INCHES OF SNOW.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVENESS OF THE SYSTEM DO NOT ANTICIPATE
IT TO NECESSITATE A WINTER HIGHLIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL DISSIPATE
QUICKLY LATE IN THE DAY ON SUNDAY....WITH DRYING CONDITIONS SUNDAY
NIGHT. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE 20 DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO
SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S WEST AND 50S EAST.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT FRI OCT 10 2014
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FEATURE RATHER QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS.
HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON MON. 700MB
TEMPS ARE STILL COOL AT AROUND -1C AND NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE
BREEZY THROUGH THE EARLY AFTN ACROSS THE PLAINS. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
WILL MOVE OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURRING.
TEMPS ON TUES WILL BE AROUND 15 DEGREES WARMER THAN MON.
SOUTHWESTERLY LLVL WINDS STRENGTHEN ON WED AS A LEE TROUGH
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PLAINS AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER
IDAHO. IT WILL BE WINDY ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS
TO THE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. WED WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST
DAY WITH 700MB TEMPS OF 6-10C. THERE IS SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON
THURS REGARDING THE AMPLITUDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AS IT MOVES OVER
WY. THE GFS IS DEEPER AND WOULD RESULT IN A BIGGER COOLDOWN ALONG WITH
STRONGER POST FRONTAL WESTERLY WINDS DURING THE DAY. THE ECMWF ON
THE OTHER HAND LIFTS THE TROUGH OVER MT WITH LESS COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND WEAKER WINDS. BOTH SOLNS ARE DRY BEHIND THE FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 530 AM MDT FRI OCT 10 2014
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUD EVENT ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE MORNING UNDER PERSISTENT SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS.
EXPECT IFR CIGS AT CYS...BFF...AND SNY THROUGH 16-18Z. CLEARING
WILL BEGIN BY MIDDAY AND LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BE CLEARED OUT BY MID
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE WEAK AND BELOW 15KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT FRI OCT 10 2014
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL AGAIN BE MINIMAL TODAY AS COOL
TEMPERATURES AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS LIMIT ANY ATMOSPHERIC DRYING.
SATURDAY WILL PROVIDE THE ONLY SOMEWHAT HEIGHTEN DAY OF FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS AS HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE 60S AND 70S...WHILE
HUMIDITIES FALL TO CLOSE TO 20 PERCENT. WINDS WILL ALSO TURN BREEZY
TURNING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING LOCATIONS AS WELL.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE DISTRICTS SUNDAY MORNING
PRODUCING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AND A RETURN TO MORE
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HAHN
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...FINCH
FIRE WEATHER...HAHN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
413 AM MDT FRI OCT 10 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT FRI OCT 10 2014
09Z SFC CHART DEPICTS 1028MB SFC HI OVER THE DAKOTAS WITH AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS WEST TEXAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF
HURRICANE SIMON. IN BETWEEN WINDS HAVE SHIFTED FROM THE NE LAST
EVENING TO SE THIS MORNING. THIS IS A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR STRATUS
ACROSS THE ERN PLAINS AND FOG WHERE THIS CLOUD DECK INTERCEPTS THE
HIER TERRAIN. THATS WHAT IS OCCURRING THIS MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD
500-1500 FT CEILINGS OVR THE ERN PLAINS AND AREAS OF FOG OVR THE
INTERSTATE 80 SUMMIT. PROGD SOUNDINGS AND LATEST HRRR DATA SHOW THIS
AREA OF CLOUDS WILL HOLD ON AT LEAST THRU EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...
ALTHOUGH THE FOG SHOULD LIFT OVER THE SUMMIT BEFORE THAT TIME. RAIN
FROM SIMON HAS STRUGGLED TO DEVELOP THIS FAR NORTH AND EXPECT LITTLE
IF ANY ADDL PRECIP THRU THE MORNING. ALTHOUGH DID LEAVE SOME LOW
CHANCES OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT ERN FOOTHILLS THIS MORNING
SHOULD A WEAK SHOWER OR POCKET OF DRIZZLE DEVELOP. CONFIDENCE IS LOW
HOWEVER FOR THAT TO OCCUR. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER COOL DAY AHEAD WITH
HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE 50S AT MOST LOCALES. A FEW LOW 60S WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER VALLEY AND AREAS THAT WILL CLEAR
OUT FIRST ACROSS NRN AND WRN ZONES.
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROF
WHICH WILL IMPACT THE AREA ON SUNDAY. SATURDAY OVERALL SHOULD BE
NICE AS PRESSURES FALL IN THE LEE. ADIABATIC DOWNSLOPE WARMING
SHOULD AID IN BOOSTING TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE.
HIGHS WILL REACH THE 60S WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...WITH 70S OVR
THE ERN PLAINS. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHEAST WYOMING...THOUGH THE STRONGEST WILL BE NR ARLINGTON WHERE
GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED. BOTH THE NAM/GFS ALSO PAINT A
SMALL RIBBON OF INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE PRESSURE TROF...EVEN
DEVELOPING AN UPDRAFT OVR ERN LARAMIE....KIMBALL AND CHEYENNE
COUNTIES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
OTHERWISE...MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD
FRONT...NOW NOT UNTIL AROUND 3 AM SUNDAY MORNING FOR EAST-CENTRAL
WYOMING AND 9 AM TO REACH THE WY/CO STATELINE. PRECIP WILL LAG THE
SFC FRONT BY 50-75 MILES DEVELOPING IN AN AREA OF MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS. AS SUCH PRECIPITATION WILL PUSH INTO EAST CENTRAL
WYOMING AND THE NRN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE BETWEEN 6-9 AM AND THRU THE
REST OF THE AREA BY EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO
AROUND 7500 FEET FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.
ELEVATIONS ABOVE THIS AREA MAY SEE A QUICK FEW INCHES OF SNOW.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVENESS OF THE SYSTEM DO NOT ANTICIPATE
IT TO NECESSITATE A WINTER HIGHLIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL DISSIPATE
QUICKLY LATE IN THE DAY ON SUNDAY....WITH DRYING CONDITIONS SUNDAY
NIGHT. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE 20 DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO
SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S WEST AND 50S EAST.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT FRI OCT 10 2014
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FEATURE RATHER QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS.
HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON MON. 700MB
TEMPS ARE STILL COOL AT AROUND -1C AND NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE
BREEZY THROUGH THE EARLY AFTN ACROSS THE PLAINS. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
WILL MOVE OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURRING.
TEMPS ON TUES WILL BE AROUND 15 DEGREES WARMER THAN MON.
SOUTHWESTERLY LLVL WINDS STRENGTHEN ON WED AS A LEE TROUGH
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PLAINS AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER
IDAHO. IT WILL BE WINDY ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS
TO THE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. WED WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST
DAY WITH 700MB TEMPS OF 6-10C. THERE IS SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON
THURS REGARDING THE AMPLITUDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AS IT MOVES OVER
WY. THE GFS IS DEEPER AND WOULD RESULT IN A BIGGER COOLDOWN ALONG WITH
STRONGER POST FRONTAL WESTERLY WINDS DURING THE DAY. THE ECMWF ON
THE OTHER HAND LIFTS THE TROUGH OVER MT WITH LESS COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND WEAKER WINDS. BOTH SOLNS ARE DRY BEHIND THE FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM MDT THU OCT 9 2014
LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO FILL IN ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. WILL KEEP MOST OF THE SITES IN MVFR CIGS WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF CYS AND SNY...WHICH HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF
SEEING IFR CONDITIONS. COULD EVEN BE SOME PATCHY FOG AT CYS IN THE
HOURS AROUND SUNRISE. THE STRATUS WILL BE QUITE PERSISTENT
THROUGH THE MORNING...ONLY BEGINNING TO CLEAR AFTER AROUND 16Z.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...GENERALLY LESS THAN
15 KTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT FRI OCT 10 2014
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL AGAIN BE MINIMAL TODAY AS COOL
TEMPERATURES AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS LIMIT ANY ATMOSPHERIC DRYING.
SATURDAY WILL PROVIDE THE ONLY SOMEWHAT HEIGHTEN DAY OF FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS AS HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE 60S AND 70S...WHILE
HUMIDITIES FALL TO CLOSE TO 20 PERCENT. WINDS WILL ALSO TURN BREEZY
TURNING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING LOCATIONS AS WELL.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE DISTRICTS SUNDAY MORNING
PRODUCING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AND A RETURN TO MORE
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HAHN
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...FINCH
FIRE WEATHER...HAHN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
318 AM MDT SUN OCT 12 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 318 AM MDT SUN OCT 12 2014
A STG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS
A CDFNT MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS BY MIDDAY. MID LVL ASCENT WILL
COMBINE WITH FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES TO PRODUCE SNOW IN THE MTNS WITH
ADVISORY TYPE AMOUNTS ABV 10000 FT.
AT LOWER ELEVATIONS THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND
A FEW TSTMS MAINLY IN THE 18Z-00Z TIMEFRAME. AFTER 00Z MID LVL
DESCENT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WILL LEAD TO A QUICK END
TO PCPN ACROSS THE PLAINS FM NORTH TO SOUTH BY EARLY EVENING. SNOW
LEVELS WILL DROP DOWN TO AROND 6000 FEET SO COULD SEE SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE BEFORE PCPN ENDS EARLY THIS
EVENING. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FNT WITH SOME
GUSTS IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE THIS AFTN OVER THE PLAINS. HIGH
TEMPS OVER MOST OF THE PLAINS WILL PEAK IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S BY MIDDAY AND THEN GRADUALLY FALL THRU THE AFTN.
FOR TONIGHT SOME OROGRAPHIC SHSN WILL CONTINUE IN THE MTNS THIS
EVENING BEFORE DECREASING BY MIDNIGHT AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM MDT SUN OCT 12 2014
A NEAR DUE NORTHERLY JET MAXIMUM IS PROGGED OVER THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY MORNING...IT IS AROUND 120 KNOTS. THE FLOW ALOFT DECREASES
MONDAY NIGHT...BECOMING MORE NORTHWESTERLY WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
MOVING INTO COLORADO. THE UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE STATE TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE EASTERN COLORADO
BORDER AT 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING. PRETTY STRONG DOWNWARD SYNOPTIC
SCALE ENERGY IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY...WEAKENING BUT STILL DOWNWARD
MONDAY NIGHT. THE QG VERTICAL VELOCITY FIELDS HAVE BENIGN ENERGY
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE NORTHERLY
ON MONDAY WITH NORMAL DRAINAGE/DOWNSLOPING MONDAY NIGHT. NORMAL
PATTERNS LOOK LIKELY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. FOR MOISTURE...
THERE IS SOME LINGERING MONDAY MORNING...BUT IT DRIES OUT THROUGH
THE DAY. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT LOOK PRETTY DRY. THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE PROGGED IN THE 0.20 TO 0.40 INCH
RANGE ALL FOUR PERIODS. THERE IS NO CAPE PROGGED ALL FOUR PERIODS.
THE QPF FIELDS HAVE NO MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION PROGGED MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL LINGER SOME MINOR POPS OVER THE HIGH
MOUNTAINS MONDAY MORNING...THEN NO POPS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. FOR
TEMPERATURES...MONDAY`S HIGHS ARE 1-2 C WARMER THAN TODAY`S.
TUESDAY`S HIGHS ARE 6-10 C WARMER THAN MONDAY`S. FOR THE LATER
DAYS...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS ON
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH AND
COOLER AIRMASS MOVES IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THERE IS
MORE UPPER RIDGING THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. MOISTURE IS
SPARSE ALL FOUR DAYS...NO POPS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 318 AM MDT SUN OCT 12 2014
NOT SURE ABOUT TIMING IF CDFNT THRU THE AREA. BOTH THE HRRR AND RUC
HAVE THE REAL FNT MOVING ACROSS AROUND 18Z WITH NWLY WINDS
DEVELOPING IN ADVANCE OF IT BY 15Z. BY 18Z WINDS THEN SHIFT TO THE
NORTH WITH SPEEDS IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE WITH SOME GUSTS FM 35-40
MPH THRU THE AFTN. AS FAR AS PCPN THERE WILL BE A 3 HOUR WINDOW
WHERE SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY PROBABLY IN THE 18Z-21Z TIME PERIOD
WITH DECREASING CHANCES TOWARDS 00Z. CEILINGS MAY DROP DOWN TO 5000
FT WITH THE SHOWERS WITH VISIBILITY AROUND 5 MILLES OR SO. BY EARLY
THIS EVENING WINDS SHOULD DECREASE INTO THE 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE FM
THE NORTH WITH IMPROVING CEILINGS. BY 06Z WINDS MAY BECOME MORE
NWLY WITH SPEEDS IN THE 10-15 MPH RANGE.&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT MDT
TONIGHT FOR COZ031-033-034.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RJK
LONG TERM...RPK
AVIATION...RPK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSONVILLE FL
438 AM EDT SUN OCT 12 2014
...NEAR RECORD HIGHS FOR INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AGAIN TODAY...
.CURRENTLY...
EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS HIGH PRESSURE (1018
MILLIBARS) CENTERED OVER OUR AREA. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM
THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN
GEORGIA AND ALABAMA. ALOFT...DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING WAS CENTERED
OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...WITH BROAD TROUGHING AND
STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PUSHING INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES. PATCHES OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG WERE BEGINNING
TO FORM AT 08Z PER SURFACE OBS. TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS AT 08Z
RANGED FROM THE 60S INLAND TO THE LOWER 70S AT THE COAST.
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
HRRR INDICATES THAT LOCALLY DENSE FOG DEVELOPING OVER THE
SUWANNEE VALLEY...ST. JOHN`S RIVER BASIN...AND INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS EXPANDING IN COVERAGE THROUGH
SUNRISE. A SHORT-FUSED DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FOR
PORTIONS OF OUR AREA THROUGH AROUND 14Z IF THE HRRR MODEL
VERIFIES. OTHERWISE...EXPECT ANOTHER SEASONABLY HOT AND DRY DAY
REGION- WIDE...AS DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING GRADUALLY PUSHES OFFSHORE
BUT MAINTAINS A SUBSIDENT AIR MASS OVER OUR REGION. WEAK SURFACE
RIDGING CENTERED OVER OUR REGION WILL GIVE WAY TO A STRONGER RIDGE
CENTERED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THAT WILL BUILD DOWN THE U.S.
EASTERN SEABOARD TONIGHT. WE EXPECT A RATHER MEAGER AND FLAT
CUMULUS FIELD TO DEVELOP ALONG AN INLAND-MOVING ATLANTIC SEA
BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SEA BREEZE SHOULD CAP HIGHS IN THE
MID/UPPER 80S OVER MUCH OF NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FL AS WELL
AS COASTAL SOUTHEAST GA...WITH NEAR RECORD HIGHS APPROACHING 90
DEGREES IN INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GA AND THE SUWANNEE VALLEY.
OUR LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN OVERNIGHT...WITH MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATING NEAR 15 KT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND 1000
FT. THESE WINDS WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD FOG
FORMATION...BUT LOW STRATUS CLOUDS APPEAR LIKELY. CONVERGENT SE
FLOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP A FEW LINES OF SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS POSSIBLY
ADVECTING ONSHORE INTO FLAGLER AND ST. JOHNS COUNTIES DURING THE
PREDAWN HOURS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER
60S INLAND TO THE LOW/MID 70S AT THE COAST.
MON/MON NIGHT...
TROUGHING WILL DEEPEN OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES...KEEPING A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE LOCALLY AS STRONG RIDGING SHIFTS
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER NORTH CENTRAL FL AND OUR WESTERN INTERIOR COUNTIES
AS DEEP-LAYERED MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT GRADUALLY INCREASES.
MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARDS A MORE AMPLIFIED AND SLOWER SOLUTION
FOR THE DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH A
STACKED CYCLONE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY ON MONDAY NIGHT. AFTER THE LOW STRATUS DECK ERODES DURING
THE MID-MORNING HOURS...EXPECT A HEALTHY CUMULUS FIELD WITH
INCREASING HIGH ALTITUDE CLOUDS ARRIVING ON MON EVENING. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY VALUES WILL PREVAIL...WITH UPPER
80S EXPECTED AT INLAND LOCATIONS AND LOW/MID 80S AT THE COAST AS
ONSHORE WINDS BECOME BREEZY AT TIMES. WARM AND MOIST CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL ON MON NIGHT WELL IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THAT
WILL BE ENTERING THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM
NEAR 70 INLAND TO THE MID 70S AT THE COAST.
TUE-WED...PRE-FRONTAL PRECIP WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS LATE TUESDAY AFTN/EVENING ESPECIALLY ACROSS
INLAND SE GA AND POSSIBLY THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY OF NE FL WHERE
850 MB WINDS WILL NEAR 35 KTS DURING PEAK HEATING. MODEL GUIDANCE
HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF PRECIP ONCE
AGAIN DELAYED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AND ONCE AGAIN GIVEN THE
RUN-TO-RUN INCONSISTENCY WITH TIMING OF PRE-FRONTAL PRECIP LOWERED
RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO THE 60-70% RANGE WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN
CHANCES TUE AFTN THROUGH TUE NIGHT WITH PRECIP EXITING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM NW-SE NOT UNTIL WED MORNING.
SYNOPTIC SITUATION STILL FAVORS A POTENTIAL `SPLIT` IN PRE-FRONTAL
SQUALL LINE TUE EVENING WITH AN AREA OF HIGHER RAIN CHANCES OF SE
GA WHERE STRONGER DYNAMICS WILL LIFT NE...WHILE ANOTHER CLUSTER OF
PRECIP WILL LIKELY HUG THE GULF COAST REGION WITH SOME PROGRESSION
INLAND OVER THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY. INCREASED TEMPS OVER NE FL
AND ALONG THE COAST TUE WITH WARM AND BREEZY SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 80S...WITH WARMER TEMPS
TUE NIGHT DUE TO SLOWER FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH MINS IN THE LOWER 60S
SE GA TO NEAR 70 ALONG THE COAST AND OUR SOUTHERN FL ZONES.
.LONG TERM...THU THROUGH SUN...
COOLER AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH THE EXTENDED MODEL
SUITE NOW IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BOTH THE GFS40 AND DGEX NOW
IN LINE WITH RECENT RUNS OF THE ECMWF. MODELS DEPICT DRY WNW UPPER
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH WITH MEAN LAYER TROUGHING OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS...WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD
FROM THE GULF COAST REGION THU INTO THE WEEKEND. NEXT WEEKEND
MODELS DIFFER WITH THE TIMING OF A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
SLIDING SOUTHWARD DOWN THE ATLANTIC COAST...WITH THE GFS LAGGING
THE ECMWF/DGEX WITH THE BOUNDARY PASSAGE LATE SAT INTO SUN. FOR
NOW LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF/DGEX SOLUTIONS WITH A NNE FLOW SUN
TRAILING THE BACKDOOR FRONT. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL VALUES WITH
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH LOWS IN THE
MID/UPPER 50S INLAND TO MID 60S COAST WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOW 80S.
&&
.AVIATION...
LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 13Z AT VQQ AND GNV. A
PERIOD OF LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 11Z-13Z AT JAX
AND CRG. VFR WILL PREVAIL AT SSI. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO RAPIDLY
IMPROVE AT THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA TERMINALS AFTER 13Z...WITH AN
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE BRINGING EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS UP TO NEAR 10
KNOTS AFTER 18Z. SOUTHEAST WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE WILL
STRENGTHEN THIS EVENING...WITH SPEEDS OF 15-20 KNOTS EXPECTED
ABOVE 500 FT AFTER 00Z.
&&
.MARINE...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME
ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT PERSISTS OVER
OUR REGION. SWELLS FROM DISTANT TROPICAL STORM FAY WILL RESULT IN
COMBINED SEAS OF 3-5 FEET OFFSHORE AND 2-4 FEET NEAR SHORE. A
TIGHTENING GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST PRESSES DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN TO CAUTION CRITERIA IN THE
OFFSHORE WATERS THIS EVENING AND MONDAY...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO
3-6 FT. CAUTION LEVEL WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED BY MONDAY EVENING
IN THE NEAR SHORE WATERS.
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON TUESDAY WILL
KEEP A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE...WITH SE/S WINDS AT CAUTION
LEVELS OFFSHORE...WITH ADVISORY LEVEL SEAS EXPECTED OFFSHORE.
PERIODS OF NEAR CAUTION WIND SPEEDS WITH 3-5 FT SEAS ARE EXPECTED
IN THE NEAR SHORE WATERS ON TUES/TUES NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS ON WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH OFFSHORE
WINDS OVERSPREADING THE AREA BY MIDDAY WED. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE ON THURS AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR
REGION FROM THE WEST.
RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK EXPECTED BY THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO
BUILDING LONG-PERIOD EASTERLY SWELLS FROM DISTANT TROPICAL STORM
FAY REACHING OUR WATERS ALONG WITH ONSHORE WINDS DEVELOPING
DURING THE AFTERNOON OUTGOING TIDE.
&&
.CLIMO...
DAILY RECORD HIGHS TODAY:
SUN-HIGH
--------
JACKSONVILLE 92(2009)
GAINESVILLE 92(1911)
ALMA 91(2009)
ST SIMONS ISLAND 87(2006)
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 90 67 87 71 / 10 10 10 10
SSI 85 72 81 73 / 0 10 10 20
JAX 87 69 86 71 / 0 10 10 10
SGJ 86 72 84 73 / 0 20 20 10
GNV 89 66 88 70 / 0 10 20 10
OCF 89 67 89 71 / 0 10 20 10
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
NELSON/ENYEDI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
335 AM EDT SUN OCT 12 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
07Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SPLIT FLOW
PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS. POWERFUL NORTHERN STREAM JET ENERGY IS
CURRENTLY SPREADING INLAND OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...CARRYING THE
SEEDS OF A SIGNIFICANT AMPLIFICATION TO THE PATTERN THAT WILL BE
OCCURRING ACROSS THE MID-SECTION OF THE COUNTRY DURING THE NEXT 24
TO 36 HOURS. FLOW SPLITS OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WITH ONE BRANCH
RIDGING NORTH INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA AND THE OTHER DROPPING SOUTH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. DOWNSTREAM FLOW THEN BECOMES CONVERGENT
ONCE AGAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE COUNTRY AND RIDES TO
THE NORTHEAST OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
OUR REGION IS FAR REMOVED FROM ALL THAT...AS WE LIE UNDERNEATH AN
EXPANSE OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERING AN AREA EXTENDING FROM
THE CENTRAL GULF TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND EASTWARD TO THE
BAHAMAS. SYNOPTIC SUPPRESSION UNDER THIS RIDGE IS KEEPING OUR COLUMN
QUITE DRY PER WV IMAGERY AND 12/00Z KTBW SOUNDING PROFILE...WHICH
MEASURED OUR PW AT JUST OVER 1" THIS PAST EVENING. DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS ARE QUITE LARGE THROUGH THE EXTENT OF THE COLUMN...AND
CURRENT TIME HEIGHT PROJECTIONS DO NOT SHOW MUCH CHANGE IN THIS
PROFILE THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY.
AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM OFF THE
NE FLORIDA COAST BACK WESTWARD ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR. A STRONGER
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS BEGINNING TO BUILD DOWN THE EASTERN
SEABOARD AND WILL OVERTAKE THIS WEAKER HIGH BY THE END OF THE
DAY...BECOMING THE DOMINANT LOW LEVEL INFLUENCE INTO THE DAY ON
MONDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
IF YOU ENJOYED THE WEATHER ON SATURDAY...THEN THE FORECAST FOR TODAY
WILL MAKE YOU HAPPY. ALTHOUGH THE PATTERN IS BEGINNING TO MOVE...THE
OVERALL SYNOPTICS FROM THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND WILL STILL BE
IN PLACE FOR YOUR SUNDAY. STACKED RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH SYNOPTIC SUPPRESSION HOLDING BACK ANY
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE RETURN ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THE ONE
DIFFERENCE WILL BE THAT THE RIDGE CENTER WILL HAVE SHIFTED TO OUR
EAST BY LATE IN THE DAY...SLIGHTLY LESSENING THE OVERALL
SUPPRESSION. GENERALLY SPEAKING THE DRYNESS/HOSTILITY OF THE COLUMN
TOWARD DEEP CONVECTION IS JUST TOO GREAT TO OVERCOME TODAY FOR PROB
95% OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND ONCE AGAIN WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES AT
OR BELOW 10% FOR ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES OF CHARLOTTE AND LEE
COUNTIES. IF THERE IS GOING TO BE ENOUGH MOISTENING OF THE COLUMN TO
ALLOW FOR A SHOWER OR TWO...IT WILL BE DOWN OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD
OF THE PENINSULA. TIME-HEIGHT PROGS SHOW SOME "SLIGHT" MOISTENING
DOWN TOWARD FORT MYERS BY EARLY EVENING...BUT ANYTHING NOTICEABLE IS
REALLY CONFINED TO AREAS SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST ZONES. LARGE SCALE
CONVECTIVE SCHEME MODELS AND VIRTUALLY ALL THE HIRES CONVECTION
ALLOWING MODELS THAT THIS FORECASTER CAN GET HIS HANDS ON ARE
SHOWING DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPING DOWN TOWARD NAPLES...AND JUST
BARELY MIGRATING NORTH ENOUGH TO SCRAPE OUR FAR SOUTHERN ZONES.
KEEPING IN MIND THAT CAM MODELS ARE OFTEN A TAD AGGRESSIVE WITH
PULSE TYPE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE...GOING TO KEEP THINGS
CONSERVATIVE...SAY 20-30% POPS...AFTER 20Z. NORTH OF CHARLOTTE
COUNTY...NONE OF THE CONVECTIVE SCHEMES ARE FIRING (AS WOULD BE
EXPECTED GIVEN THE FORECAST COLUMN)...AND AS WAS MENTIONED A COUPLE
NIGHTS AGO...IT IS VERY TELLING OF THE SITUATION WHEN NOT ONE OF THE
CONVECTIVE SCHEMES ASSOCIATED WITH THE SREF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE
TRIGGERED. THAT ALONE GIVES GOOD CONFIDENCE IN A DRY FORECAST
ANYWHERE FURTHER NORTH.
IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...SEE LITTLE REASON TO NOT GO WITH A
PERSISTENCE TYPE FORECAST. STATISTICAL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN GENERALLY
RUNNING A COUPLE OF DEGREES TOO WARM THE PAST FEW DAYS...SO WILL
START WITH A BLEND OF THE MAV AND MET...AND THEN BACK THINGS OFF A
COUPLE OF DEGREES. GIVEN THE EXPECTED DIURNAL MIXING EXTENT...A
WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURE FORECAST IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 SEEMS
REASONABLE. THE OVERALL GRADIENT IS LIGHT TODAY...SO DO ANTICIPATE
WINDS SHIFTING ONSHORE AT MOST LOCATIONS FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON.
THE SHELF WATERS ARE NOT QUITE AS WARM AS THEY WERE A MONTH OR 2
AGO...SO TEMPERATURES AT THE BEACHES MAY BE HELD DOWN MORE IN THE
MIDDLE 80S...ESPECIALLY AFTER THE WIND SHIFT.
IF THERE ARE ANY SHOWERS DOWN TOWARD FORT MYERS EARLY IN THE
EVENING...THEY WILL MIGRATE OFFSHORE QUICKLY WITH SUNSET.
THEREAFTER...EXPECTING A DRY AND SEASONABLE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE
GRADIENT WILL BE STARTING TO TIGHTEN BY THIS TIME BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD...AND DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE MORE MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER
SHOULD HELP KEEP THINGS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THE PREVIOUS
NIGHTS...ESPECIALLY UP OVER THE NATURE COAST. THE CYCLOGENESIS
TAKING PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO AN
AMPLIFYING STRONG/DEEP...AND SHARP UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE
MID-SECTION OF THE COUNTRY. EVENTUALLY THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING OUR
NEXT COLD FRONT AND BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN BY TUESDAY/TUESDAY
NIGHT...HOWEVER...MORE DETAILS ON THAT PORTION OF THE FORECAST CAN
BE FOUND IN THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION BELOW.
MONDAY WILL BE THE TRANSITION DAY BETWEEN THIS DRY AND QUIET STRETCH
OF WEATHER WE ARE CURRENTLY IN...AND OUR NEXT CHANCE OF MORE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL BEGINNING TUESDAY. OVERALL...THE PROGRESS OF THE
PATTERN EVOLUTION HAS SLOWED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST 24 OF MODEL
GUIDANCE...AND IT NOW APPEARS AS THOUGH MONDAY MAY STAY GENERALLY ON
THE DRY SIDE FOR MOST OF US. UPPER RIDGING LOOKS TO HOLD ON JUST
LONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT THE BIGGEST MOISTURE RETURN SURGE UNTIL
MONDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...THE STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL PREVENT ANY SEA-BREEZE
FORMATION...OR AT LEAST PREVENT ANY BOUNDARY FROM COMING ASHORE. WE
ALSO LOOK TO STILL BE WELL AHEAD OF ANY LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS/
SYNOPTIC SUPPORT FOR ASCENT. THEREFORE...ANY SCT LATE DAY SHOWER
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE COASTAL ZONES/MARINE ZONES TO THE
SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY ALONG THE STALLED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE GRADIENT.
EVEN FOR THESE LOCATIONS DO NOT ANTICIPATE A WHOLE LOT OF
ACTIVITY...AND GENERALLY NOT UNTIL AFTER 19-20Z. ANYTHING THAT DOES
FORM WILL QUICKLY MIGRATE OFFSHORE. TEMPTED AT THIS POINT TO KEEP
THE I-4 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD AND THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN ZONES RAIN FREE
FOR ONE MORE DAY ON MONDAY...BUT WILL EXTEND A SLIGHT CHANCE 20% POP
UP THE COAST THROUGH TAMPA BAY TO PASCO COUNTY (LATE IN THE DAY) IN
CASE THE MOISTURE RETURN IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN CURRENTLY
SIMULATED. MORE OF THE SAME IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. WELL...THAT IS THE SHORT TERM
WEATHER STORY FOR NOW...HAVE A GREAT SECOND HALF OF YOUR WEEKEND!
&&
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)...
THE PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST TO THE TX COASTAL PLAIN...A SURFACE LOW OVER THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT DOWN INTO THE FAR
WESTERN GULF...AND DEEP LAYER RIDGING OFF THE U.S. COAST FROM NEW
ENGLAND TO FL. DURING TUE AND WED THESE FEATURES SLIDE EASTWARD WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENING INTO A LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY REGIONS. THE FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE GULF AND INTO SOUTHERN
FL BY WED NIGHT. FOR THU THROUGH SAT THE UPPER LOW PIVOTS ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA AS THE FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE
SOUTHEAST FL THU NIGHT. MEANWHILE DEEP LAYER RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST CONUS AND SHIFTS INTO THE GULF REGION. THE LATEST
GFS/ECMWF/CMC MODELS HAVE CONVERGED INTO A FAIRLY SIMILAR SOLUTION
WITH ONLY MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES.
THE PRESENT FORECAST PHILOSOPHY IS TO BLEND GFS/ECMWF/CMC. SOUTHEAST
FLOW WILL INCREASE SOME AS IT BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE POOLING OUT OVER THE GULF AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE SHOWERS AND STORMS ON THE GULF MON NIGHT THAT
SPREAD ACROSS THE LAND AREAS DURING TUE. AS THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW AND
FRONT WORK EAST SHOWER/STORMS COVERAGE INCREASE INTO LIKELY TUE
NIGHT THEN GRADUALLY TAPER OFF AS THEY EXIT EAST BY THU NIGHT. SOME
OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME ROBUST TUE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOWEVER THE BEST DYNAMICS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY TO THE NORTH...
KEEPING THE THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS LOW. THE RIDGING MOVING INTO
THE GULF WILL BRING IN DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR FOR THE END
OF THE PERIOD WITH NO RAIN EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES DECREASE BUT ONLY
DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL. HOWEVER THE DRIER AIR WILL ALLOW THE
TEMPERATURES TO FEEL MORE COMFORTABLE.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA THIS MORNING. A PERIOD OF MVFR GROUND FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS...MAINLY FOR KLAL AND KPGD. ANY EARLY MORNING VIS
RESTRICTIONS WILL END QUICKLY WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. JUST THE OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A POP UP
SHOWER FOR KFMY/KRSW AFTER 20Z. LOCAL SEA-BREEZE WILL MAKE WINDS
SHIFT ONSHORE FOR THE TERMINALS BORDERING TAMPA BAY BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT BACK TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION FOR
ALL TERMINALS SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL BE REINFORCED LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS STRONGER RIDGING BUILDS DOWN THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. THE
GRADIENT WILL THEN TIGHTEN BETWEEN THIS HIGH TO OUR NORTHEAST AND
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED APPROACHING COLD FRONT
WELL TO OUR WEST. PERIODS OF CAUTIONARY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS ARE
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY UNTIL THIS FRONT CROSSES THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. EXPECT A SHIFT
IN WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH DURING THE MIDDLE PORTION
OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS EASTWARD ACROSS THE
GULF OF MEXICO IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE REINFORCED FROM THE NORTH LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE WEST EARLY IN THE
WEEK AND PASS THROUGH THE REGION LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY WITH JUST A FEW SCT
SHOWER AROUND ON MONDAY. HIGHER RAIN CHANCES ACCOMPANY THE FRONT FOR
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...HOWEVER LDSI
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE HIGH SIDE FOR MONDAY.
PATCHY GROUND FOG AROUND THIS MORNING WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER
SUNRISE. THERE IS LESS POTENTIAL FOR FOG TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
AND EVEN LESS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 88 73 90 74 / 0 0 20 10
FMY 89 75 91 73 / 20 20 40 10
GIF 90 71 90 70 / 10 0 10 10
SRQ 88 73 90 74 / 0 0 30 10
BKV 91 68 91 72 / 0 0 10 10
SPG 89 76 89 76 / 0 0 20 10
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WX...MROCZKA
LONG TERM...RUDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
315 AM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT HAS SHIFTED EAST AS THE
NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL U.S. A VERY STRONG JET
APPROACHING 180 KTS ON THE RAP ANALYSIS IS PUSHING INTO THE
CANADIAN SOUTHWEST - PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
TROUGHINESS OVER THE PLAINS AND A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW NEAR THE
BLACK HILLS IS HELPING ADVECT STRATUS RAPIDLY NORTH WHICH IS
ALREADY PUSHING INTO THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST PART OF THE CWA. LIGHT
RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRATUS SEEMS TO BE HOLDING FURTHER BACK
IN SOUTHERN MO WHERE SGF`S 00Z SOUNDING MEASURED A PW OVER 1 INCH.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014
MAIN CONCERN TODAY IS THE IMPACT OF CLOUDS ON MAX TEMPS AND LIGHT
PRECIP. MAX TEMPS REFLECT THE RAPID ADVANCE OF CLOUDS WITH
SOUTHERN CWA HIGHS FORECAST LOWER THAN IN THE NORTH WHERE A
LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED. WITH THE LACK OF SUN AND A
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WIND...TODAY WILL FEEL A NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY.
WITH THE STRATUS DECK IN THE AREA AND WEAK 850 MB THERMAL-MOISTURE
ADVECTION HELPED BY SOLAR HEATING...I WOULD EXPECT AREAS OF LIGHT
RAIN OR SPRINKLES TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL NOT BE A
WASHOUT LIKE WHAT THE FORECAST LATER SHOWS...BUT NEITHER WILL IT
BE THE NICE DRY SUNNY DAY WE HAD YESTERDAY.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014
THE MODEL TRENDS OF SLOWING PROGRESS OF THE UPPER LOW CONTINUE
TONIGHT...WITH THE SAME BASIC SPREAD FROM MODEL TO MODEL THAT HAS
EXISTED IN PREVIOUS NIGHTS. THE GFS REMAINS THE FASTEST IN
PROGRESSION EAST WITH THE UPPER LOW...WHILE THE ECMWF AND UKMET
REMAIN THE SLOWEST. OVER ALL THE MODEL HAVE SLOWLY BEEN SHIFTING
TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION...AS THAT MODEL REMAINS BY FAR THE MOST
CONSISTENT.
THAT SAID...MONDAY IS CONSISTENTLY FORECAST BY ALL MODELS TO SEE A
ROBUST SHOT OF MOISTURE RICH WARM ADVECTION DRIVEN RAIN. THIS WILL
BE THE MAIN PRECIPITATION EVENT OF THE ENTIRE SYSTEM. A WIDESPREAD 1
INCH RAIN EVENT IS LIKELY MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT OVER ALL OF
THE CWA...WITH THE NORTHWEST 1/2 OR SO AT RISK FOR 1 TO 1.5 INCHES
IN THAT ROUGHLY 12 HOUR PERIOD. PWAT VALUES ARE NOW SOLIDLY
FORECAST TO REACH THE 1.25 TO 1.60 RANGE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WHICH IS EXTREMELY HIGH FOR MID OCTOBER IN THE UPPER
MIDWEST. A LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION SHOULD PREVENT ANY RUN OFF ISSUES
FROM CROPPING UP...BUT STRATIFORM RAIN RATES OF 0.25 TO 0.50 ARE
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE DURING THE PEAK FORCING MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THE SURFACE LOW WILL OCCLUDE AND CUT OFF AT UPPER LEVELS MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. WITH DEFORMATION ZONE RAINS TAKING PLACE OVER THE
CWA THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WE SHOULD SEE LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE
RAIN FOR A LONG PERIOD. IT CERTAINLY SEEMS THIS DAMP AND RATHER
WINDY WEATHER LOOKS TO BE THE STORY OF THIS WORK WEEK. IMPROVEMENT
SHOULD BEGIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT WEST...AND THURSDAY OVER THE REST OF
THE CWA AS THE WEAKENING UPPER LOW SHIFTS EAST. I HAVE MY DOUBTS
ABOUT CLEARING UNTIL THIS OCCURS...AND HAVE INCREASED SKY COVER
GRIDS FOR THE 3RD NIGHT IN A ROW FOR THE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT PERIOD. ADDITIONAL QPF TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE
0.25 TO 1 INCH...RESULTING IN 3 DAY TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES...AND
SOME POTENTIAL FOR OVER 2 1/2 IN AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE THE HEAVIER
RAIN BANDS. WHILE THIS WILL NO DOUBT DISRUPT HARVEST ACTIVITIES
THIS WEEK...THE STRATIFORM RATES SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY FLOODING THREAT.
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SHOULD RECOVER TO SOMEWHAT WARMER
READINGS IN THE DEEPER MIXED NORTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
LOWER TO MID 60S ARE FORECAST THROUGH A MODEL BLEND FOR HIGHS...WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
ERVIN
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT SAT OCT 11 2014
CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 12/13Z
AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER ILLINOIS MOVES EAST. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING
NORTH FROM ARKANSAS WILL BRING LOW CLOUDS INTO ALL THE TERMINALS BETWEEN
12/15Z-21Z. CLOUD BASES WILL START OF AOA 3K AGL AND THEN DETERIORATE
TO MVFR CONDITIONS OF 1-2K AGL WITHIN A FEW HOURS WITH ISOLATED SPRINKLES
OR A LIGHT SHOWER POSSIBLE. THIS IS HANDLED WITH VCNTY WORDING IN THE
TERMINAL TAFS FOR NOW UNTIL BETTER CLARIFIED HOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SATURATES INITIALLY. CONTINUED SATURATION BY LATE EVENING SUPPORTS AREAS
OF VERY LIGHT RAIN AND/OR DRIZZLE WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO ARRIVE OR
DEVELOP AT BRL BY 13/04Z AND LIKELY AFTER 13/06Z AT THE OTHER TERMINALS.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WOLF
SHORT TERM...WOLF
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...NICHOLS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW ORLEANS LA
346 AM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014
.SHORT TERM...
A FEW NOCTURNAL SHOWERS OVERNIGHT MAINLY IN THE COASTAL WATERS. WE
REMAIN IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS TODAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF
OUT WEATHER CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE HIGH
CENTERED AROUND JAX/MLB COASTAL AREA. FLOW AROUND THE HIGH CONTINUES
TO PUSH MOIST GULF AIR INTO ARE ENTIRE REGION. EXPECT A FEW
SHOWERS AND MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM TODAY AS THE WARM/MOIST AIR MASS
HOLDS FOR ANOTHER FEW DAYS.
.LONG TERM...
CHANGES ON THE WAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG OVER THE ROCKIES WITH
CYCLOGENISIS BEGINNING TONIGHT. A 560MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS
PROGGED BY THE GFS BEGINNING AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT OVER THE OK
PANHANDLE. A SQUALL LOOKS TO FORM IN EAST TX NORTH TO AR AROUND
NOON ON MONDAY AND MOVE EASTWARD. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS
SOLUTION WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING WITH THE GFS AND NAM
MOVING CLOSER TO THE EURO SOLUTION OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. THE
EURO HAS BEEN THE SLOWER OF THE MODELS WITH THE NAM BEING THE MOST
TEMPORALLY AGGRESSIVE. THE SQUALL LINE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
SHOULD ENTER THE KLIX WARNING AREA AROUND 6PM AND EXIT OUR FAR
EAST WARNING AREA BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. WITH THIS IN MIND...
THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND ENERGY FOR SOME CELLS TO DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE BEGINNING MONDAY AFTERNOON. TAKING A LOOK
AT SOME SEVERE PARAMETERS INDICATE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE IN OUR SW MS COUNTIES NORTHWARD TO THE MS/TN
BORDER. LOCAL CAPE FORECAST TO BE 1200 J/KG WITH ENOUGH SHEAR TO
WARRANT THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO. THE BEST HELICITY
IS PROGGED TO BE IN EAST TX THEN MOVING TO N MS. LOOKING UPWARD
SHOWS A PORTION OF OUR AREA IN THE RR QUAD OF A 120KT JET WITH
SOME UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE MONDAY EVENING IN THE WEST THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING IN THE EAST. GUSTY WINDS...BRIEF TORRENTIAL
RAIN... AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCE WEST OF I-55 AND IN OUR SW MS COUNTIES AND BORDER
LA PARISHES. SPC HAS THE ENTIRE WARNING AREA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK
WITH A TOTAL SEVERE PROBABILITY OF 30 PERCENT IN SW MS. COLD AIR
ADVECTION AFTER THE FRONT WILL BRING MUCH DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION. LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER 40S NORTH AND WEST OF LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN AND 50S SOUTH OF THE LAKE AND THE MS GULF COAST.
&&
.AVIATION...
MAIN THREAT TO AREA TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE
ISOLATED CONVECTION TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE COULD BE A FEW
PATCHES OF FOG THIS MORNING BUT NOTHING WIDESPREAD IS EXPECTED.
SOME BRIEF IFR TO VLIFR OBSERVATIONS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 08Z AND 14Z
OTHERWISE VFR WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS.
&&
.MARINE...
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
MORNING AND COULD LINGER ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. A SQUALL
LINE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE COASTAL WATERS MONDAY
EVENING AND MOVE ACROSS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. STRONG GUSTY
WINDS... FREQUENT LIGHTNING... AND LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS ALONG THE SQUALL LINE. WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 15KT LATER TODAY AND MONDAY AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT
MOVE EAST TOWARDS OUR AREA MONDAY. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
SWITCH FROM THE SOUTH TO THE NORTH AND HOLD STEADY AROUND 15KT
WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20KT. WE WILL WATCH THIS CLOSE AS BOTH SMALL
CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION AND POSSIBLY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE
WARRANTED WITH THIS SYSTEM TUESDAY.
&&
.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
SIGNIFICANCE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 85 71 84 56 / 30 10 70 80
BTR 86 71 86 57 / 30 10 70 80
ASD 85 71 85 61 / 20 20 60 80
MSY 86 73 86 63 / 20 20 60 80
GPT 84 71 83 64 / 10 20 50 80
PQL 84 69 83 65 / 10 20 50 80
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
KEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
317 AM EDT SUN OCT 12 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SUN OCT 12 2014
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW SHRTWV RDG MOVING
INTO THE WRN GREAT LKS TO THE E OF A DEEPENING UPR TROF IN THE
ROCKIES ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG SHRTWV DIGGING SEWD THRU THE PAC
NW. COMBINATION OF VERY DRY AIRMASS SHOWN ON THE 00Z GRB/MPX
RAOBS...WHERE THE 00Z PWAT WAS ABOUT 0.30 INCH OR 50 PCT OF
NORMAL...AND ACYC SW FLOW ARND SFC HI PRES CENTERED NEAR DETROIT IS
BRINGING ABOUT CLEAR SKIES EARLY THIS MRNG OVER UPR MI. TEMPS HAVE
FALLEN AS LO AS THE 20S AT THE COLD SPOTS OVER THE INTERIOR WHERE
THE WINDS HAVE DECOUPLED...BUT TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT AND A STEADY
DOWNSLOPE SSW WIND NEAR LK SUP HAVE HELD TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 40S
IN THOSE LOCATIONS. LOOKING UPSTREAM...MID/HI CLDS ARE ON THE INCRS
IN THE NRN PLAINS TO THE E OF THE DEEPENING TROF IN THE NRN ROCKIES.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM WL BE HI TEMPS TODAY AND THEN
PCPN CHCS TNGT AS THE SSW FLOW BTWN THE DEPARTING HI TO THE E AND
FALLING MSLP TO THE W AND SW TAPS MOISTER AIR OVER THE SRN CONUS.
TODAY...EXPECT A MOSUNNY DAY WITH DRY ACYC SSW FLOW DOMINATING THE
UPR GREAT LKS ON THE NW FLANK OF SFC HI PRES DRIFTING INTO NEW
ENGLAND LATE IN THE DAY. THE MODELS DO SHOW SOME INCRSG MID LVL MSTR
OVER THE W TOWARD 00Z MON...SO GRIDS WL SHOW MORE CLDS ARRIVING
THERE TOWARD SUNSET. THE 00Z GRB/MPX RAOBS INDICATED DAYTIME MIXING
REACHED TO H85 YDAY...SUPPORTING HI TEMPS REACHING THE LOWER 60S PER
FCST SDNGS AND IN LINE WITH UPSTREAM OBS ON SAT. EXPECT THE HIEST
TEMPS IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LK SUP. THE DAYTIME MIXING WL TAP
H925 WINDS UP TO 25 KTS AND CAUSE SOME GUSTY SFC WINDS.
TNGT...AS STRONG SHRTWV OVER THE PAC NW EARLY THIS MRNG DIGS INTO
THE SRN PLAINS...A DEEP UPR TROF IS FCST TO TAKE SHAPE TNGT IN THE
PLAINS...WITH A 998MB SFC LO FCST OVER OKLAHOME AT 12Z MON. ALTHOUGH
THE SLY SFC-H925 FLOW IS FCST TO SLOWLY WEAKEN UNDER WEAKENING PRES
GRADIENT OVER THE WRN GREAT LKS...MODELS SHOW SSW FLOW ALF E OF THE
DEEPENING TROF WL LIFT THE PWAT UP TO ARND 1 INCH OVER THE SRN CWA
BY 12Z MON. GIVEN THE INCRSD MOISTENING...MANY OF THE MODELS
GENERATE SOME LGT PCPN OVER AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA...MAINLY
AFTER 06Z OVER THE CENTRAL WHERE THERE IS SOME ISENTROPIC ASCENT
SHOWN ON THE 295K SFC /H8-85/. BUT IN ABSENCE OF ANY SGNFT DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC...IN FACT SOME OF THE MODELS SHOW DEEP LYR QVECTOR
DVGC AND SUBSIDENCE SO FAR N OF THE CYCLOGENESIS...OPTED TO GO NO
HIER THAN THE SCHC POPS SHOWN IN THE CURRENT FCST. THE INFLUX OF
MSTR WL LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP FALL DESPITE THE WEAKENING LLVL WINDS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SUN OCT 12 2014
...WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER IN STORE FOR EARLY THIS WEEK...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A DEEP UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE PLAINS AT 12Z MON CLOSING OFF BY TUE EVENING AS IT MOVES
OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A SFC LOW OVER OK AT 12Z SUN MOVES
NE WHILE BECOMING VERTICALLY STACKED BENEATH THE UPPER LOW. A FAIRLY
SHARP AREA OF DEFORMATION AND FRONTOGENETIC CIRCULATION DEVELOP
NEAR THE INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WHICH WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF FORCING
FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE ERN TWO THIRDS OF UPPER MI. THE BEST
MOISTURE ARRIVES LATE ON MON...WITH PWATS UP TO 1.5 INCHES OVER THE
FAR SERN CWA...WHICH IS 225-250 PERCENT OF NORMAL. BECAUSE OF
THIS...HELD OFF ON WIDESPREAD RAIN UNTIL LATE MON. AS IS OFTEN THE
CASE WITH STRONG DEFORMATION/FGEN PRECIP...A SHARP DRY CUTOFF IS
EXPECTED NW OF THE BEST FORCING...WHICH MAY LEAVE PORTIONS OF FAR
NWRN UPPER MI WITH AT LEAST MUCH LESS RAIN MON NIGHT.
GUSTY NORTH WINDS TUE-TUE NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR WAVES OF 7-9 FEET
ALONG THE SHORELINE OF MARQUETTE AND ALGER COUNTIES. GIVEN THE
RELATIVELY HIGH WATER LEVELS COMBINED WITH THE WAVE SETUP...THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MINOR BEACH EROSION IN THESE AREAS.
WITH THE UPPER LOW LINGERING S OF THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST
WED...CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW WILL PERSIST. HOWEVER...VERY DRY AIR WILL
BE LAID OUT OVER THE NWRN CWA...SO ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
CONFINED TO THE SERN CWA.
MODELS EXHIBIT POOR RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY AND MODEL TO MODEL
AGREEMENT AFTER WED WITH THE MERGING OF THE EXISTING SYSTEM AND
ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE REGION. HAVE VERY LOW CONFIDENCE FOR
THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
OVERALL...EXPECT TEMPS NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MID
WEEK...WITH COOLER CONDITIONS MORE LIKELY LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 124 AM EDT SUN OCT 12 2014
VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THIS FORECAST. SW WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO
INCREASE A BIT THRU THIS MORNING AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND THE
PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS. DAYTIME MIXING WL TAP THE STRONGER WINDS AND
CAUSE WINDS GUSTS UP TO ARND 20 KTS THIS AFTN. CLDS WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE AFTER 0Z WITH INCRSG MSTR...BUT CIGS WL REMAIN
VFR WITH LINGERING DRY LLVL AIR.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SUN OCT 12 2014
GENERALLY QUIET MARINE WEATHER TODAY. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF
10-20 KT WILL PERSIST TODAY. TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
ALONG THE FRONT IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOUTH WINDS TO GRADUALLY
WEAKEN TONIGHT AND MONDAY...BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AND
INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KT LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT WITH WAVES
BUILDING TO 6-9 FEET. THE LOW WEAKENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WED WHILE
MOVING NORTHEAST...ALLOWING THE WINDS TO ALSO WEAKEN TO 10-20 KT.
SOUTH WINDS ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD
FRONT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...TITUS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
134 AM EDT SUN OCT 12 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT SAT OCT 11 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW THAT THE PERSISTENT TROF
THAT HAS DOMINATED SE CANADA AND THE NE CONUS IS NOW LIFTING OUT AS
STRONG JET AND NEW TROF BEGIN TO PUSH INTO THE NWRN CONUS.
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE NRN PLAINS/SCNTRL CANADA IS ALSO BEING
FORCED EASTWARD. AS A RESULT...WAA IS BEGINNING TO SPREAD INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTN. EARLIER TODAY...QUITE A BIT OF
CU/STRATOCU DEVELOPED WITHIN 850MB THERMAL TROF THAT WAS PUSHING
ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN UPPER MI. COMBINATION OF WEAK WAA AND MIXING
OUT OF MOISTURE HAS LED TO RAPID DISSIPATION OF THESE CLOUDS FROM
THE W. AS OF 19Z...CLOUDS ARE STILL HANGING ON E OF A
MUNISING/ESCANABA LINE. EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO CLEAR OUT OVER THE
NEXT FEW HRS.
SHORT TERM WEATHER WILL BE QUIET AS UPSTREAM RIDGE SHIFTS ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT AND THEN TO THE E ON SUN. THIS WILL RESULT IN GRADUALLY
STRENGTHENING SW FLOW/WAA. TONIGHT...AXIS OF STRONGEST
WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS FOCUSED WELL TO THE N TOWARD JAMES BAY
VCNTY. SO...PCPN IS NOT A CONCERN HERE. IN FACT...SKY WILL BE CLEAR.
ONLY ISSUE TONIGHT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO DEVELOP OVER THE ERN
FCST AREA. LIGHT/CALM WIND AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AT LEAST
THRU THE EVENING WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 30S IN THE
INTERIOR AND AS LOW AS THE UPPER 20S/LWR 30S IN THE TRADITIONAL COLD
SPOTS. WITH TEMPS FALLING PAST THE CROSSOVER TEMP AND MORE
IMPORTANTLY WITH LIGHT NEAR SFC FLOW OFF NRN LAKE MICHIGAN ADVECTING
HIGHER DWPTS INLAND OVERNIGHT...SEEMS LIKELY THAT SOME FOG WILL
DEVELOP.
DESPITE PERSISTENT SW FLOW...COLUMN REMAINS DRY ON SUNDAY. THUS...
EXPECT ABUNDANT SUNSHINE ONLY FILTERED BY SOME INCREASE IN HIGH
CLOUDS DURING THE AFTN. MIXING TO 875-850MB ON FCST SOUNDINGS YIELDS
MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 50S TO AS HIGH AS THE LWR 60S.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT SAT OCT 11 2014
...WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER IN STORE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MON MORNING SHOULD END UP BEING FAIRLY QUIET WITH
THE BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH STILL WEST OF
THE AREA. HOWEVER...AS THE FRONT AND TROUGH MOVE EAST...EXPECT AN
INCREASE OF MOISTURE AND CLOUDS...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN LATE CLOSE TO THE WI BORDER.
AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST
SUNDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG IT IN THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THIS LOW WILL MOVE NORTH/NORTHEAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE
GFS LOOKS TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF IN SHOWING A
FAIRLY SHARP AREA OF DEFORMATION AND FRONTOGENETIC CIRCULATION
DEVELOPING NEAR THE INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE GFS NOW SUGGESTS THAT THE
BEST FORCING AND 850MB THERMAL PACKING WILL BE SUPPRESSED SLIGHTLY
FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH WHICH IS SIMILAR TO WHAT THE ECMWF HAS SHOWN.
AS SUCH...THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO FAR
NORTHERN LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER MI. HOWEVER...AM STILL EXPECTING
MOST OF THE EASTERN 2/3 OF UPPER MICHIGAN TO SEE STEADY RAINFALL
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY SINCE PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WILL STILL BE 150-200 PCT OF NORMAL ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN. AS SUCH...WILL MAINTAIN CATEGORICAL POPS
ACROSS MUCH OF UPPER MICHIGAN MON NIGHT AND MAINTAIN THOSE INTO TUE
MORNING ACROSS THE EAST. WITH DRY EASTERLY FLOW INITIALLY...WILL OPT
TO HOLD OFF THE STEADY PCPN ACROSS THE FAR EAST UNTIL MON EVENING.
GUSTY NORTH WINDS TUE-TUE NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR WAVES OF 7-9 FEET
ALONG THE SHORELINE OF MARQUETTE AND ALGER COUNTIES. GIVEN THE
RELATIVELY HIGH WATER LEVELS COMBINED WITH THE WAVE SETUP...THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MINOR BEACH EROSION IN THESE AREAS.
THE UPPER LOW WILL BE QUITE SLOW TO MOVE OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AS IT BECOMES CUT OFF FROM THE MEAN FLOW TO TH NORTH. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT TO PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH WED AT LEAST. MEANWHILE...CONSIDERABLY DRIER AIR ATTEMPTS TO
MOVE IN FROM THE WEST WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES LOWERING TO
BELOW 1 INCH. WITH THIS SAID...CANNOT RULE OUT A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
ACROSS THE EAST ON TUE NIGHT INTO WED WHERE THE BETTER MOISTURE WILL
BE. HOWEVER...DYNAMICS WILL BE FAIRLY LIMITED DESPITE CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT...AND INSTABILITY OFF THE LAKE WILL BE MINIMAL AT BEST DUE TO
WARM 850MB TEMPS OF AROUND +8C. WILL THEREFORE LIMIT CHC POPS ONLY
TO THE EAST TUE NIGHT INTO WED AND KEEP THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
DRY. MAY HAVE A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
FINALLY LIFTS OUT AND THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
HOWEVER...THE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE CERTAINLY NOT CONSISTENT WITH THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND PCPN IN THIS PERIOD...WITH THE ECMWF BEING
MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS OR GEM. BEHIND THIS TROUGH...850MB
TEMPS DROP TO -6C FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WHICH COMBINED WITH NW PBL
FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A
FEW WET SNOW FLAKES SATURDAY MORNING.
OVERALL...MUCH OF THE WEEK WILL SEE TEMPS AT OR ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGHS EACH DAY IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 124 AM EDT SUN OCT 12 2014
VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THIS FORECAST. SW WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO
INCREASE A BIT THRU THIS MORNING AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND THE
PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS. DAYTIME MIXING WL TAP THE STRONGER WINDS AND
CAUSE WINDS GUSTS UP TO ARND 20 KTS THIS AFTN. CLDS WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE AFTER 0Z WITH INCRSG MSTR...BUT CIGS WL REMAIN
VFR WITH LINGERING DRY LLVL AIR.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT SAT OCT 11 2014
GENERALLY QUIET MARINE WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10-20 KT WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. THESE WINDS WILL PERSIST ON SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT...LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SLOWLY
MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOUTH
WINDS TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY...BEFORE SHIFTING TO
THE NORTH AND INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KT ON TUE/TUE NIGHT WITH WAVES
BUILDING TO 6-9 FEET. THE LOW WEAKENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WED WHILE
MOVING NORTHEAST...ALLOWING THE WINDS TO ALSO WEAKEN TO 10-20 KT.
SOUTH WINDS ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD
FRONT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...MRD
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...MRD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
306 AM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014
THE MAIN IMPACT IN THE SHORT TERM IS RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN ACROSS CENTRAL MONTANA
AND WYOMING. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SOUTHWESTERN
MANITOBA...AND ON DOWN THROUGH THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. THESE FEATURES
WILL PROVIDE AMPLE ASCENT AND FOCUS FOR RAIN SHOWER DEVELOPMENT.
AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW MOVE FURTHER
EAST...RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF SOUTH DAKOTA
AND SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. THE MODELS (00 UTC ECMWF/GFS/NAM) HAVE
THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION CENTERED OVER NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA. HOWEVER...THEY STILL BRING OVER A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN
INTO NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94. THE RAP HAS HAD A GOOD
HANDLE ON THE ONGOING PRECIPITATION ACROSS MONTANA AND HAS
PRECIPITATION CONTINUING TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA AND
ENTERING WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AROUND 6 AM CDT.
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL BE COOLER THAN TODAY...WITH READINGS IN
THE 50S AND LOW 60S. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STEEPENS BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 30 MPH ARE LIKELY.
WINDS SHOULD DIE DOWN AFTER SUNSET AND RAIN SHOULD COME TO AN END
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST SHORTLY THEREAFTER.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY HIGHLIGHT THE
EXTENDED FORECAST.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO PROPAGATE INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. NAEFS 850-700 MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB
INTO THE THE 97TH-99TH PERCENTILES BY WEDNESDAY IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THIS RIDGE. THUS...A MILD DAY TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S IS FORECAST TO BE FOLLOWED BY WIDESPREAD
HIGHS IN THE 70S ON WEDNESDAY. THIS FOLLOWS THE WARMER EDGE OF THE
00 UTC GUIDANCE SUITE WHICH HAS VERIFIED BEST OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS. THEREAFTER...A SHORTWAVE COMING ON SHORE TO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE
THURSDAY...WITH A DEEPENING EASTERN CONUS TROUGH...PLACING THE
NORTHERN PLAINS UNDER CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE
END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS FAVORS A RETURN TO TEMPERATURES NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1213 AM CDT SAT OCT 11 2014
VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES. RAIN SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS
MORNING AND PUSH EAST. SHOWERS PRESENTLY OVER KJMS WILL BE
SHORT-LIVED. DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE KDIK-KBIS-KJMS CORRIDOR LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1214 AM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1213 AM CDT SAT OCT 11 2014
MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS UPDATE WAS PRECIPITATION ACROSS WESTERN AND
EAST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
A PREFERENTIAL TROUGH ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WAS PROVIDING
ENOUGH ASCENT FOR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TO FORM.
THEREFORE...INCREASED RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE EAST THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.
THE MAIN SHOW IS STILL OUT ACROSS MONTANA AND WILL MAKE ITS WAY
INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE RAP APPEARS TO
HAVE A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT SETUP AND HAS PRECIPITATION
CONTINUING TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA AND ENTERING WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA AROUND 6 AM CDT. THE MOST WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIEST
RAIN SHOULD REMAIN ALONG THE NORTH DAKOTA/SOUTH DAKOTA BOARDER
JUST NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 924 PM CDT SAT OCT 11 2014
BAND OF SHOWERS MOVING ALONG THE COLD FRONT INTO NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA AT THIS TIME. SEEING SOME MILDLY GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT (15 TO 25 MPH) SO RAISED THE POST FRONTAL
WINDS A BIT WEST TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...WILL FOLLOW THE SHOWERS
SLOWLY EAST TONIGHT WITH THE FRONT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 642 PM CDT SAT OCT 11 2014
A BROAD SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ACROSS
EASTERN MONTANA WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT AND BE THE FOCUS FOR
DEVELOPING SHOWERS. MADE SOME MODEST ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS LATER
TONIGHT IN COORDINATION WITH GRAND FORKS DELAYING THE ARRIVAL OF
LOW POPS ACROSS THE EAST A FEW HOURS. LOW SURFACE DEW POINTS SHOULD
RESULT IN A FEW HOURS OF VIRGA INSTEAD OF SHOWERS TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE UPDATED CURRENT SKY CONDITION BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE
OBS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT SAT OCT 11 2014
WARM SECTOR FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS...SUSTAINED 25
MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS SOUTH
INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. COLD FRONT NOW BEGINNING TO EMERGE
FROM SOUTHERN ALBERTA AND SOUTHWEST SASKATCHEWAN WILL SHIFT INTO
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z SUNDAY. LATEST WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SUPPORTING THE AFOREMENTIONED
COLD FRONT IS NOW SLIDING INTO NORTHERN IDAHO. THIS WILL UNDERGO
DEEPENING WITH THE HEIGHT FIELDS SHARPENING UP AS A 140KT 300MB
JET STREAK OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DIVES INTO THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH OVERNIGHT. IN DOING SO...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BUCKLE
MORE TO A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...BECOMING PARALLEL WITH THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT...RESULTING IN A SLOWER MOVEMENT ONCE IT GETS INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY 12Z SUNDAY. STRONGEST OMEGA/VERTICAL
MOTION FIELD IS MORE OR LESS CONFINED TO WESTERN/SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA OVERNIGHT...THEN SHIFTING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA SUNDAY MORNING...TRANSITIONING TO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. HENCE...THE HIGHEST POPS...LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL...CAN BE EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING OVER SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...THEN INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
AS FAR AS THE TIMING OF SHOWERS...THE GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONG THE
FORECAST GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE HIGHER RESOLUTION/HRRR MODEL WAS
TO MAINTAIN PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
BEGINNING IN THE WEST BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z SUNDAY...THEN SPREADING
INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATER TONIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. CONCUR
WITH THIS IDEA GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE VERTICAL MOTION FIELD
MENTIONED ABOVE IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE LOCATION OF THE UPPER
TROUGH/SURFACE COLD FRONT. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BEFORE TAPERING OFF SUNDAY
NIGHT. MUCH COOLER SUNDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S...AND AROUND 60 IN THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL WHERE LESS
PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT SAT OCT 11 2014
UPPER TROUGH DEPARTS BY 12Z MONDAY AND IS EVENTUALLY REPLACED BY AN
UPPER RIDGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE RIDGE WILL TRANSITION FROM THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES MONDAY...INTO NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY...AND THEN
SHIFTING EAST WEDNESDAY. THIS SHIFTING OF THE UPPER RIDGE RESULTS
IN A WARMING TREND MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS AFTERNOON HIGHS
WEDNESDAY RISE BACK INTO THE LOWER 70S WEST...WITH 65F TO 70F
ELSEWHERE. THEREAFTER...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH REMAINS ON TRACK TO SLIDE
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...PUSHING A
SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH WHILE THE HEIGHT FIELD IS BRIEFLY
SUPPRESSED. PRECIPITATION CHANCES...ALTHOUGH EVEN MORE LIMITED IN
TODAYS RUN...IS CONFINED TO THE FAR NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. THE WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE
WITH ANOTHER TRANSITORY RIDGE SLIDING ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA
FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY WEAK SHORTWAVE SATURDAY. AGAIN PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED AND FAVOR THE NORTH AND EAST CENTRAL ON
SATURDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1213 AM CDT SAT OCT 11 2014
VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES. RAIN SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS
MORNING AND PUSH EAST. SHOWERS PRESENTLY OVER KJMS WILL BE
SHORT-LIVED. DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE KDIK-KBIS-KJMS CORRIDOR LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
325 AM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014
.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...A STATIONARY FRONT IS LOCATED FROM NORTHERN ALABAMA
INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. THERE ARE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG PREVALENT ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE MIDSOUTH. THE FOG IS BECOMING DENSE IN MANY
LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY AROUND THE MEMPHIS METRO SO WILL ISSUE A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR EARLY THIS MORNING. TEMPS THIS MORNING
RANGE FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS THE NORTH TO LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS
NORTH MISSISSIPPI.
TODAY...THE FRONT WILL MOVE BACK NORTH THROUGH THE DAY AS A WARM
FRONT AND BY THIS AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL BE BACK INTO THE 70S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA WITH A SOUTHERLY BREEZE AND DEWPOINTS RISING INTO
THE MID 60S. 00Z MODELS AND THE LATEST HRRR ARE INDICATING SOME
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND WEST TENNESSEE
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE AIRMASS DESTABILIZES WITH LIFTED INDEX
VALUES OF -4C AND SBCAPES OF 1200-1500 J/KG. THERE COULD BE A FEW
STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. UPPED POPS A BIT
NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER AND NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS ACTIVITY. THE FRONT WILL TAKE LONGER TO MOVE THROUGH
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS SO TEMPS THERE SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S
OR LOWER 70S WITH LOWER CHANCES OF PRECIP.
TONIGHT...A POTENT UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS OVERNIGHT AND BE LOCATED IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA BY 12Z MON.
MEANWHILE A DEVELOPING SURFACE WILL BE LOCATED IN NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AT THE SAME TIME. ANY ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL PROBABLY DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING. AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES A BELT OF 40-50 KT MID LEVEL FLOW AND AN INCREASING
850 MB LLJ OF 40+ KTS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA. AS A RESULT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD START DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE MS RIVER. THE STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
TRANSPORT MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR NORTHWARD WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S...SBCAPES 500-1000 J/KG AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. SHEAR WILL BE INCREASING WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 40
KTS AFTER 09Z MON. THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY THAT THESE STORMS
COULD BE SEVERE AND POSSIBLY SURFACE BASED. SO THOUGH THE FOCUS IS
ON THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATER ON MONDAY WILL NEED TO WATCH
THIS PERIOD OF TIME FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...SEVERE WEATHER EVENT LOOKING LIKELY
WHICH IS CORROBORATED NICELY BY THE CIPS ANALOG PAGE FROM SLU. THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL PIVOT EAST DURING THE DAY AND MOVE TO THE
NORTHEAST OK/SOUTHWEST MO AREA BY 00Z TUE AND THEN INTO CENTRAL
MISSOURI OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS INTO TO ST
LOUIS BY 12Z TUESDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS
THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THE 00Z MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT.
TYPICAL DISAGREEMENTS IN TIMING EXIST WITH THE GFS A LITTLE FASTER
AND THE NAM/ECMWF A FEW HOURS SLOWER. GENERALLY TOOK A COMPROMISE
APPROACH TO TIMING. MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
NORTH IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM AS DEWPOINTS CLIMB INTO THE UPPER
60S TO AROUND 70F. SURFACE HEATING IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM WILL
HELP TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S WHILE STRONG
HEIGHT FALLS SPREAD THE REGION. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF
6.5-7C WILL BE PRESENT AND SBCAPES WILL CLIMB TO 1500-2000 J/KG.
MEANWHILE THE LLJ WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY UP TO 55 KTS OVER THE
DELTA BY 18Z MONDAY WHILE A 80-90 KT MID LEVEL JET BEGINS TO PUNCH
INTO THE REGION. LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE QUIET ADEQUATE WITH
0-1KM SHEAR VALUES OF 300 M2/S2...POSSIBLY HIGHER WITH THE SURFACE
LOW TRACKING INTO MISSOURI WHICH WILL CAUSE ADDITIONAL BACKING OF
THE SURFACE WINDS. EXPECT BROKEN LINE SEGMENTS OF STORMS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS ARKANSAS WITH SOME DISCRETE CELLS POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE DELTA REGION IN THE AFTERNOON. THE LINES WILL EVENTUALLY
CONGEAL INTO A QLCS NEAR THE MS RIVER AND PUSH EAST DURING THE
EVENING EVENTUALLY EXITING THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE
MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS THOUGH A FEW TORNADOES ARE
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IF DISCRETE CELLS CAN FORM EARLY ON DURING THE
EVENT. A FEW TORNADOES WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THE BOWING
SEGMENTS OF THE QLCS AS IT PUSHES EAST AS WELL. HAIL WOULD BE A
SECONDARY THREAT AND MOST COMMON EARLY ON.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE ECMWF FOR
THIS TIME PERIOD...SURPRISE. AS A RESULT IT LOOKS CLOUDIER AND
COOLER WITH SOME SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER NE SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. TUESDAY WILL BE COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND BIT
WARMER ON WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...UPPER LOW EXITS AND WARMER ZONAL FLOW
TAKES OVER. DRY AND TEMPS REBOUNDING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF
THE WEEK.
SJM
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS
IFR/OCCASIONAL LIFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT... AS MOIST
GULF AIR OVERSPREADS A STATIONARY FRONT THAT WAS OVER NORTH MS AT
05Z. THE SURFACE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT OVERNIGHT...
PERHAPS AIDING THE CHANCES OF ELEVATED THUNDER AFTER 12Z TO THE
SOUTH AND WEST OF MEM. FLIGHT CATEGORY WILL IMPROVE SUNDAY DURING
THE 15Z TO 18Z PERIOD... AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE
AREA.
PWB
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR CLAY-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-
MISSISSIPPI-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.
MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR DUNKLIN-
PEMISCOT.
MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR COAHOMA-
DESOTO-MARSHALL-TATE-TUNICA.
TN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR BENTON TN-
CARROLL-CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-
HARDEMAN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-
OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1133 PM CDT SAT OCT 11 2014
.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
COLD FRONT HAS NOW PUSHED TO NEAR THE COAST...WITH NORTH WINDS AT
ALL SITES EXCEPT GLS. SHOULD SEE A SHIFT TO NORTH WINDS SHORTLY
THERE AS WELL. THERE HAS BEEN A BAND OF LOW CLOUDS BEHIND THE
FRONT BUT THIS HAS TENDED TO THIN AND BREAK APART OVER SOUTHERN
TAF SITES...FROM KIAH AND KSGR ON SOUTH...WHERE SKIES ARE NOW
GENERALLY SCATTERED. LOWEST CIGS CURRENTLY AT CXO AND UTS WHERE
STILL AOB 1000 FEET.
OVERNIGHT...EXPECT SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOWER DECK AT CXO AND
UTS...TO TRANSITION TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER BROKEN DECK AROUND 1500
GIVEN SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR FILTERING IN. FOR KIAH...KHOU...KSGR...
EXPECT CURRENT SCATTERED CONDITIONS TO ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT GIVEN RAINFALL FROM EARLIER...EVAP COOLING AND LIGHT
WINDS. STILL PROBABLY NOT DENSE GIVEN SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR FILTERING
IN. WILL ALSO EVOLVE TO A BROKEN MVFR DECK THERE.
NEAR THE COAST CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR EVEN
TSTRM...BEING CLOSEST TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WHICH MAY START TO
RETURN TOWARD THE COAST AGAIN TOWARD SUNRISE...OR A LITTLE AFTER.
46
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 820 PM CDT SAT OCT 11 2014/
UPDATE...
SEE EVENING UPDATE.
DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUED TO MAKE SLOW BUT STEADY PROGRESS ACROSS THE
CWA THIS EVENING. AT 01Z...THE FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM ABOUT
CLEVELAND TO JUST WEST OF HOBBY AIRPORT TO WEST COLUMBIA TO LAKE
TEXANA. ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE ACCOMPANIED THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT
COVERAGE IS MEAGER. 00Z 850 MB ANALYSIS STILL SHOWS PLENTY OF
MOISTURE ACROSS LOUISIANA AND SOUTH TEXAS WITH A WEAK 850 MB LOW
OVER EASTERN OK AND A TROUGH EXTENDING SW ACROSS CENTRAL TX. A
WEAK 700 MB TROUGH EXTENDS FROM WESTERN OK INTO NE TX WITH THE
DEEPER 700 MB MSTR SHUNTED TO NE TX. AT 250 MB...SE TX LIES IN A
WEAK RRQ AND ANOTHER SPEED MAX WILL ROTATE AROUND A BROAD UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES ON SUNDAY KEEPING SE TX IN A RRQ.
THE RAP 13 IS AGGRESSIVE WITH SHRA/TSRA REDEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY CLOSE TO AND JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST. THE
POSITION OF THE JET AND 850 MB MSTR SEEMS SUPPORTIVE OF THIS
SCENARIO. PREV FCST ALREADY MENTIONS CHANCE POPS FOR SUNDAY
MORNING SO OTHER THAN MINOR TWEAKS TO THE GRIDS...FEEL PREV FCST
IS IN GOOD SHAPE. 43
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 704 PM CDT SAT OCT 11 2014/
DISCUSSION...
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION.
AVIATION...
COLD FRONT NOW FROM NEAR IAH TO E OF SGR...AND SAGGING SEWD TOWARD
HOU. BEHIND THE FRONT SEEING NW WINDS BRIEFLY 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND
GUSTY. LOWER CLOUDS FOLLOW WITH CIGS BLO 1000 FEET AT
UTS...CXO...AND NOW DWH. EXPECT THESE LOWER CIGS TO OVERSPREAD
IAH...SGR AND HOU WITHIN THE NEXT FEW OURS AS WELL...MOSTLY
MVFR...BUT FOR A FEW HOURS AT LEAST...SOME IFR CIGS AS WELL.
OVERNIGHT...SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR FILTERS IN BUT THINK WILL KEEP THE
LOWER CIGS...MAINLY MVFR...AT MOST SITES WITH DIMINISHING NW
WINDS. SE RETURN FLOW KICKS ON ON SUNDAY. PRECIP COVERAGE SHOULD
BE LIMITED AND WILL INCLUDE ONLY VCSH FOR NOW. 46
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CDT SAT OCT 11 2014/
DISCUSSION...
SFC ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY STALLED ALONG
THE COAST OR JUST INLAND. BOUNDARY IS RATHER DIFFUSE SO LIKELY
DISSIPATING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. THERE IS ALSO A COLD FRONT THAT
CURVES FROM THE ARKLATEX SOUTH TO CROCKETT THEN SOUTH OF BRENHAM
TO SAN ANTONIO. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY MAKE SOME SLOW PROGRESS
SOUTHWARD TONIGHT STALLING AT THE COAST. THE LATEST HRRR/RAP RUNS
SEEM TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THIS. FORECAST WILL KEEP 20 POPS
IN FOR THE OVERNIGHT BUT REALLY DO NOT EXPECT MUCH PRECIP TO
OCCUR. THE FRONT SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE TOMORROW AS SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW INCREASES.
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE THE
SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBILITIES MONDAY. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS A STRONG JET STREAK AND DEVELOPING TROUGH COMING INTO THE
PAC NW. THE TROUGH WILL QUICKLY AMPLIFY TOMORROW WITH SFC
CYCLOGENESIS IN THE TX PANHANDLE AS JET STREAK COMES INTO THE S
ROCKIES. UPPER LOW THEN MOVES INTO THE S PLAINS BY MON MORNING
WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING S THROUGH TX. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE
WHETHER LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BREAK THE CAP
AS THERE WILL BE A DECENT ELEVATED MIXED LAYER. RIGHT NOW LOOKS
LIKE THE BOTTOM LOBE OF VORTICITY IN THE TROUGH MAY JUST BE ENOUGH
AND GENERATE QG ASCENT TO ERODE THE CAP. THE FRONT WILL BE ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT LINEAR FORCING FOR A SQUALL LINE TO DEVELOP. DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL BE AROUND 40-5OKTS WITH MODERATE CAPE THAT THE SQUALL
LINE COULD PRODUCE SEVERE WINDS/HAIL. STILL SOME DOUBTS AS TO THE
MAGNITUDE OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR WHICH WOULD HELP WITH POSSIBLE
ROTATING UPDRAFTS IN THE SQUALL LINE. A LLJ OF 40-50KTS WOULD
LIKELY SUPPORT STRONG ENOUGH SHEAR SO POSSIBLE THAT THERE COULD BE
SOME BRIEF TORNADOES FROM A QLCS OR BOWING SEGMENT.
MAIN THREAT APPEARS TO BE DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS THROUGH
THE EARLY AFTERNOON ON MONDAY. AREAS EAST OF COLLEGE STATION AND
NORTH OF HOUSTON SHOULD MONITOR CONDITIONS CLOSELY AS THINK THIS
WILL BE THE MAIN AREA THAT COULD SEE SEVERE WEATHER. SEVERE THREAT
WILL SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST ALONG THE COAST INTO E TX BY EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH THE LINE PUSHING EAST. SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES
INCREASE GREATLY NORTH AND EAST OF HOUSTON TOWARDS ARKANSAS.
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY AND OFF THE COAST
MONDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP SO
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED. THERE COULD BE SOME WIND
GUSTS TO GALE FORCE IN OFFSHORE AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA MON NIGHT INTO TUE ALLOWING FOR MORE SEASONABLE
CONDITIONS. LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 50S WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 70S. COOLER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WEDNESDAY WITH MIN TEMPS
POSSIBLY IN THE LOW 50S. RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK SO EXPECT A WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES.
39
MARINE...
WEAK COOL FRONT/WIND SHIFT LINE APPEARS TO BE SLOWING DOWN THIS AFTN
AND CURRENTLY NEAR/RIGHT ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR. THIS LINE COULD
REACH THE BAYS/RIGHT ALONG THE COAST THIS EVENING BEFORE IT
EVENTUALLY STALLS AND WASHES OUT OVERNIGHT. AS SUCH WILL BE
KEEPING A GENERALLY LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW IN PLACE FOR ALL THE MARINE
ZONES THRU SUN MORN. AS THE NEXT SYSTEM DEEPENS OVER THE SRN
PLAINS...THE TIGHTENING GRAD- IENT WILL HELP PRODUCE STRENGTHENING
ONSHORE WINDS THRU SUN AFTN. WE COULD REACH SCEC CRITERIA FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS SUN NIGHT/EARLY MON MORN. ALL OF THIS IS AHEAD OF
ANOTHER (STRONGER) COLD FRONT WHICH IS SLATED TO MOVE OFFSHORE
LATE MON AFTN/EARLY EVE. A LINE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY
THE FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS. STRONG NNW WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT MIGHT BE ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW GUSTS TO GALE BY MON NIGHT.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE ALSO LIKELY. THESE OFFSHORE WINDS TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN BY TUES AFTN AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE
REGION. ONSHORE WINDS NOT FCST TO RETURN UNTIL THURS OR SO. 41
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 63 84 72 78 53 / 10 20 30 80 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 66 86 74 85 57 / 20 20 20 80 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 74 83 77 86 64 / 20 30 20 70 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION/MARINE...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
827 AM MDT SUN OCT 12 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 813 AM MDT SUN OCT 12 2014
INCREASED THE CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING PER OBS
AND WEBCAMS...AND WENT AHEAD AND BACKED UP THE TIMING OF THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE MOUNTAINS TO STARTING NOW. ALSO
ADDED IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS THERE IS DEFINITELY
ALREADY SOME INSTABILITY INVOLVED WITH THIS SYSTEM. STILL
MONITORING THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT UP IN WYOMING...WHICH SEEMS TO
HAVE STALLED A LITTLE BIT...BUT EXPECT IT TO ACCELERATE AS IT
MOVES OFF THE CHEYENNE RIDGE AND INTO COLORADO.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 318 AM MDT SUN OCT 12 2014
A STG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS
A CDFNT MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS BY MIDDAY. MID LVL ASCENT WILL
COMBINE WITH FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES TO PRODUCE SNOW IN THE MTNS WITH
ADVISORY TYPE AMOUNTS ABV 10000 FT.
AT LOWER ELEVATIONS THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND
A FEW TSTMS MAINLY IN THE 18Z-00Z TIMEFRAME. AFTER 00Z MID LVL
DESCENT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WILL LEAD TO A QUICK END
TO PCPN ACROSS THE PLAINS FM NORTH TO SOUTH BY EARLY EVENING. SNOW
LEVELS WILL DROP DOWN TO AROUND 6000 FEET SO COULD SEE SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE BEFORE PCPN ENDS EARLY THIS
EVENING. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FNT WITH SOME
GUSTS IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE THIS AFTN OVER THE PLAINS. HIGH
TEMPS OVER MOST OF THE PLAINS WILL PEAK IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S BY MIDDAY AND THEN GRADUALLY FALL THRU THE AFTN.
FOR TONIGHT SOME OROGRAPHIC SHSN WILL CONTINUE IN THE MTNS THIS
EVENING BEFORE DECREASING BY MIDNIGHT AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM MDT SUN OCT 12 2014
A NEAR DUE NORTHERLY JET MAXIMUM IS PROGGED OVER THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY MORNING...IT IS AROUND 120 KNOTS. THE FLOW ALOFT DECREASES
MONDAY NIGHT...BECOMING MORE NORTHWESTERLY WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
MOVING INTO COLORADO. THE UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE STATE TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE EASTERN COLORADO
BORDER AT 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING. PRETTY STRONG DOWNWARD SYNOPTIC
SCALE ENERGY IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY...WEAKENING BUT STILL DOWNWARD
MONDAY NIGHT. THE QG VERTICAL VELOCITY FIELDS HAVE BENIGN ENERGY
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE NORTHERLY
ON MONDAY WITH NORMAL DRAINAGE/DOWNSLOPING MONDAY NIGHT. NORMAL
PATTERNS LOOK LIKELY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. FOR MOISTURE...
THERE IS SOME LINGERING MONDAY MORNING...BUT IT DRIES OUT THROUGH
THE DAY. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT LOOK PRETTY DRY. THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE PROGGED IN THE 0.20 TO 0.40 INCH
RANGE ALL FOUR PERIODS. THERE IS NO CAPE PROGGED ALL FOUR PERIODS.
THE QPF FIELDS HAVE NO MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION PROGGED MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL LINGER SOME MINOR POPS OVER THE HIGH
MOUNTAINS MONDAY MORNING...THEN NO POPS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. FOR
TEMPERATURES...MONDAY`S HIGHS ARE 1-2 C WARMER THAN TODAY`S.
TUESDAY`S HIGHS ARE 6-10 C WARMER THAN MONDAY`S. FOR THE LATER
DAYS...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS ON
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH AND
COOLER AIRMASS MOVES IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THERE IS
MORE UPPER RIDGING THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. MOISTURE IS
SPARSE ALL FOUR DAYS...NO POPS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 813 AM MDT SUN OCT 12 2014
STILL MONITORING THE COLD FRONT UP IN WYOMING AS IT SEEMS TO HAVE
SLOWED DOWN JUST NORTH OF CHEYENNE. IT WILL LIKELY SPEED UP ONCE
IT PASSES OVER THE CHEYENNE RIDGE AND INTO COLORADO. WILL PUSH
OFF THE COLD FRONT TIMING AN HOUR IN THE TAFS FOR NOW. THE HRRR
AND RUC HAVE THE REAL FRONT MOVING ACROSS AROUND 18Z WITH NWLY
WINDS DEVELOPING IN ADVANCE OF IT BY 16-17Z. BY 18Z WINDS THEN
SHIFT TO THE NORTH WITH SPEEDS IN THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE WITH SOME
GUSTS 35-40 KT THRU THE AFTN. AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION...THERE WILL
BE A 3 HOUR WINDOW WHERE SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY PROBABLY IN THE
18Z- 21Z TIME PERIOD WITH DECREASING CHANCES NEAR 00Z. CEILINGS
MAY DROP DOWN TO 5000 FT WITH THE SHOWERS WITH VISIBILITY AROUND 5
MILES OR SO. BY EARLY THIS EVENING WINDS SHOULD DECREASE INTO THE
15 TO 20 MPH RANGE FM THE NORTH WITH IMPROVING CEILINGS. BY 06Z
WINDS MAY BECOME MORE NWLY WITH SPEEDS IN THE 10-15 MPH RANGE.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR COZ031-
033-034.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KRIEDERMAN
SHORT TERM...RJK
LONG TERM...RPK
AVIATION...KRIEDERMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSONVILLE FL
645 AM EDT SUN OCT 12 2014
...NEAR RECORD HIGHS FOR INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AGAIN TODAY...
.CURRENTLY...
EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS HIGH PRESSURE (1018
MILLIBARS) CENTERED OVER OUR AREA. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM
THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN
GEORGIA AND ALABAMA. ALOFT...DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING WAS CENTERED
OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...WITH BROAD TROUGHING AND
STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PUSHING INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES. PATCHES OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG WERE BEGINNING
TO FORM AT 08Z PER SURFACE OBS. TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS AT 08Z
RANGED FROM THE 60S INLAND TO THE LOWER 70S AT THE COAST.
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
HRRR INDICATES THAT LOCALLY DENSE FOG DEVELOPING OVER THE
SUWANNEE VALLEY...ST. JOHN`S RIVER BASIN...AND INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS EXPANDING IN COVERAGE THROUGH
SUNRISE. A SHORT-FUSED DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FOR
PORTIONS OF OUR AREA THROUGH AROUND 14Z IF THE HRRR MODEL
VERIFIES. OTHERWISE...EXPECT ANOTHER SEASONABLY HOT AND DRY DAY
REGION- WIDE...AS DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING GRADUALLY PUSHES OFFSHORE
BUT MAINTAINS A SUBSIDENT AIR MASS OVER OUR REGION. WEAK SURFACE
RIDGING CENTERED OVER OUR REGION WILL GIVE WAY TO A STRONGER RIDGE
CENTERED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THAT WILL BUILD DOWN THE U.S.
EASTERN SEABOARD TONIGHT. WE EXPECT A RATHER MEAGER AND FLAT
CUMULUS FIELD TO DEVELOP ALONG AN INLAND-MOVING ATLANTIC SEA
BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SEA BREEZE SHOULD CAP HIGHS IN THE
MID/UPPER 80S OVER MUCH OF NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FL AS WELL
AS COASTAL SOUTHEAST GA...WITH NEAR RECORD HIGHS APPROACHING 90
DEGREES IN INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GA AND THE SUWANNEE VALLEY.
OUR LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN OVERNIGHT...WITH MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATING NEAR 15 KT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND 1000
FT. THESE WINDS WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD FOG
FORMATION...BUT LOW STRATUS CLOUDS APPEAR LIKELY. CONVERGENT SE
FLOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP A FEW LINES OF SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS POSSIBLY
ADVECTING ONSHORE INTO FLAGLER AND ST. JOHNS COUNTIES DURING THE
PREDAWN HOURS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER
60S INLAND TO THE LOW/MID 70S AT THE COAST.
MON/MON NIGHT...
TROUGHING WILL DEEPEN OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES...KEEPING A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE LOCALLY AS STRONG RIDGING SHIFTS
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER NORTH CENTRAL FL AND OUR WESTERN INTERIOR COUNTIES
AS DEEP-LAYERED MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT GRADUALLY INCREASES.
MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARDS A MORE AMPLIFIED AND SLOWER SOLUTION
FOR THE DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH A
STACKED CYCLONE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY ON MONDAY NIGHT. AFTER THE LOW STRATUS DECK ERODES DURING
THE MID-MORNING HOURS...EXPECT A HEALTHY CUMULUS FIELD WITH
INCREASING HIGH ALTITUDE CLOUDS ARRIVING ON MON EVENING. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY VALUES WILL PREVAIL...WITH UPPER
80S EXPECTED AT INLAND LOCATIONS AND LOW/MID 80S AT THE COAST AS
ONSHORE WINDS BECOME BREEZY AT TIMES. WARM AND MOIST CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL ON MON NIGHT WELL IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THAT
WILL BE ENTERING THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM
NEAR 70 INLAND TO THE MID 70S AT THE COAST.
TUE-WED...PRE-FRONTAL PRECIP WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS LATE TUESDAY AFTN/EVENING ESPECIALLY ACROSS
INLAND SE GA AND POSSIBLY THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY OF NE FL WHERE
850 MB WINDS WILL NEAR 35 KTS DURING PEAK HEATING. MODEL GUIDANCE
HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF PRECIP ONCE
AGAIN DELAYED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AND ONCE AGAIN GIVEN THE
RUN-TO-RUN INCONSISTENCY WITH TIMING OF PRE-FRONTAL PRECIP LOWERED
RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO THE 60-70% RANGE WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN
CHANCES TUE AFTN THROUGH TUE NIGHT WITH PRECIP EXITING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM NW-SE NOT UNTIL WED MORNING.
SYNOPTIC SITUATION STILL FAVORS A POTENTIAL `SPLIT` IN PRE-FRONTAL
SQUALL LINE TUE EVENING WITH AN AREA OF HIGHER RAIN CHANCES OF SE
GA WHERE STRONGER DYNAMICS WILL LIFT NE...WHILE ANOTHER CLUSTER OF
PRECIP WILL LIKELY HUG THE GULF COAST REGION WITH SOME PROGRESSION
INLAND OVER THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY. INCREASED TEMPS OVER NE FL
AND ALONG THE COAST TUE WITH WARM AND BREEZY SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 80S...WITH WARMER TEMPS
TUE NIGHT DUE TO SLOWER FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH MINS IN THE LOWER 60S
SE GA TO NEAR 70 ALONG THE COAST AND OUR SOUTHERN FL ZONES.
.LONG TERM...THU THROUGH SUN...
COOLER AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH THE EXTENDED MODEL
SUITE NOW IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BOTH THE GFS40 AND DGEX NOW
IN LINE WITH RECENT RUNS OF THE ECMWF. MODELS DEPICT DRY WNW UPPER
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH WITH MEAN LAYER TROUGHING OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS...WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD
FROM THE GULF COAST REGION THU INTO THE WEEKEND. NEXT WEEKEND
MODELS DIFFER WITH THE TIMING OF A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
SLIDING SOUTHWARD DOWN THE ATLANTIC COAST...WITH THE GFS LAGGING
THE ECMWF/DGEX WITH THE BOUNDARY PASSAGE LATE SAT INTO SUN. FOR
NOW LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF/DGEX SOLUTIONS WITH A NNE FLOW SUN
TRAILING THE BACKDOOR FRONT. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL VALUES WITH
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH LOWS IN THE
MID/UPPER 50S INLAND TO MID 60S COAST WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOW 80S.
&&
.AVIATION...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE THROUGH 13Z AT
VQQ...WITH IFR CIGS EXPECTED AT GNV. A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIFR
CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE BEFORE 13Z AT JAX. VFR WILL PREVAIL AT SSI
AND CRG. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO RAPIDLY IMPROVE AT THE NORTHEAST
FLORIDA TERMINALS AFTER 13Z...WITH AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE BRINGING
EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS UP TO NEAR 10 KNOTS AFTER 18Z. SOUTHEAST
WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE WILL STRENGTHEN THIS EVENING...WITH
SPEEDS OF 15-20 KNOTS EXPECTED ABOVE 500 FT AFTER 00Z.
&&
.MARINE...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME
ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT PERSISTS OVER
OUR REGION. SWELLS FROM DISTANT TROPICAL STORM FAY WILL RESULT IN
COMBINED SEAS OF 3-5 FEET OFFSHORE AND 2-4 FEET NEAR SHORE. A
TIGHTENING GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST PRESSES DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN TO CAUTION CRITERIA IN THE
OFFSHORE WATERS THIS EVENING AND MONDAY...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO
3-6 FT. CAUTION LEVEL WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED BY MONDAY EVENING
IN THE NEAR SHORE WATERS.
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON TUESDAY WILL
KEEP A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE...WITH SE/S WINDS AT CAUTION
LEVELS OFFSHORE...WITH ADVISORY LEVEL SEAS EXPECTED OFFSHORE.
PERIODS OF NEAR CAUTION WIND SPEEDS WITH 3-5 FT SEAS ARE EXPECTED
IN THE NEAR SHORE WATERS ON TUES/TUES NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS ON WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH OFFSHORE
WINDS OVERSPREADING THE AREA BY MIDDAY WED. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE ON THURS AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR
REGION FROM THE WEST.
RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK EXPECTED BY THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO
BUILDING LONG-PERIOD EASTERLY SWELLS FROM DISTANT TROPICAL STORM
FAY REACHING OUR WATERS ALONG WITH ONSHORE WINDS DEVELOPING
DURING THE AFTERNOON OUTGOING TIDE.
&&
.CLIMO...
DAILY RECORD HIGHS TODAY:
SUN-HIGH
--------
JACKSONVILLE 92(2009)
GAINESVILLE 92(1911)
ALMA 91(2009)
ST SIMONS ISLAND 87(2006)
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 90 67 87 71 / 10 10 10 10
SSI 85 72 81 73 / 0 10 10 20
JAX 87 69 86 71 / 0 10 10 10
SGJ 86 72 84 73 / 0 20 20 10
GNV 89 66 88 70 / 0 10 20 10
OCF 89 67 89 71 / 0 10 20 10
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
NELSON/ENYEDI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
652 AM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT HAS SHIFTED EAST AS THE
NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL U.S. A VERY STRONG JET
APPROACHING 180 KTS ON THE RAP ANALYSIS IS PUSHING INTO THE
CANADIAN SOUTHWEST - PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
TROUGHINESS OVER THE PLAINS AND A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW NEAR THE
BLACK HILLS IS HELPING ADVECT STRATUS RAPIDLY NORTH WHICH IS
ALREADY PUSHING INTO THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST PART OF THE CWA. LIGHT
RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRATUS SEEMS TO BE HOLDING FURTHER BACK
IN SOUTHERN MO WHERE SGF`S 00Z SOUNDING MEASURED A PW OVER 1 INCH.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014
MAIN CONCERN TODAY IS THE IMPACT OF CLOUDS ON MAX TEMPS AND LIGHT
PRECIP. MAX TEMPS REFLECT THE RAPID ADVANCE OF CLOUDS WITH
SOUTHERN CWA HIGHS FORECAST LOWER THAN IN THE NORTH WHERE A
LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED. WITH THE LACK OF SUN AND A
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WIND...TODAY WILL FEEL A NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY.
WITH THE STRATUS DECK IN THE AREA AND WEAK 850 MB THERMAL-MOISTURE
ADVECTION HELPED BY SOLAR HEATING...I WOULD EXPECT AREAS OF LIGHT
RAIN OR SPRINKLES TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL NOT BE A
WASHOUT LIKE WHAT THE FORECAST LATER SHOWS...BUT NEITHER WILL IT
BE THE NICE DRY SUNNY DAY WE HAD YESTERDAY.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014
THE MODEL TRENDS OF SLOWING PROGRESS OF THE UPPER LOW CONTINUE
TONIGHT...WITH THE SAME BASIC SPREAD FROM MODEL TO MODEL THAT HAS
EXISTED IN PREVIOUS NIGHTS. THE GFS REMAINS THE FASTEST IN
PROGRESSION EAST WITH THE UPPER LOW...WHILE THE ECMWF AND UKMET
REMAIN THE SLOWEST. OVER ALL THE MODEL HAVE SLOWLY BEEN SHIFTING
TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION...AS THAT MODEL REMAINS BY FAR THE MOST
CONSISTENT.
THAT SAID...MONDAY IS CONSISTENTLY FORECAST BY ALL MODELS TO SEE A
ROBUST SHOT OF MOISTURE RICH WARM ADVECTION DRIVEN RAIN. THIS WILL
BE THE MAIN PRECIPITATION EVENT OF THE ENTIRE SYSTEM. A WIDESPREAD 1
INCH RAIN EVENT IS LIKELY MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT OVER ALL OF
THE CWA...WITH THE NORTHWEST 1/2 OR SO AT RISK FOR 1 TO 1.5 INCHES
IN THAT ROUGHLY 12 HOUR PERIOD. PWAT VALUES ARE NOW SOLIDLY
FORECAST TO REACH THE 1.25 TO 1.60 RANGE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WHICH IS EXTREMELY HIGH FOR MID OCTOBER IN THE UPPER
MIDWEST. A LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION SHOULD PREVENT ANY RUN OFF ISSUES
FROM CROPPING UP...BUT STRATIFORM RAIN RATES OF 0.25 TO 0.50 ARE
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE DURING THE PEAK FORCING MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THE SURFACE LOW WILL OCCLUDE AND CUT OFF AT UPPER LEVELS MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. WITH DEFORMATION ZONE RAINS TAKING PLACE OVER THE
CWA THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WE SHOULD SEE LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE
RAIN FOR A LONG PERIOD. IT CERTAINLY SEEMS THIS DAMP AND RATHER
WINDY WEATHER LOOKS TO BE THE STORY OF THIS WORK WEEK. IMPROVEMENT
SHOULD BEGIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT WEST...AND THURSDAY OVER THE REST OF
THE CWA AS THE WEAKENING UPPER LOW SHIFTS EAST. I HAVE MY DOUBTS
ABOUT CLEARING UNTIL THIS OCCURS...AND HAVE INCREASED SKY COVER
GRIDS FOR THE 3RD NIGHT IN A ROW FOR THE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT PERIOD. ADDITIONAL QPF TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE
0.25 TO 1 INCH...RESULTING IN 3 DAY TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES...AND
SOME POTENTIAL FOR OVER 2 1/2 IN AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE THE HEAVIER
RAIN BANDS. WHILE THIS WILL NO DOUBT DISRUPT HARVEST ACTIVITIES
THIS WEEK...THE STRATIFORM RATES SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY FLOODING THREAT.
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SHOULD RECOVER TO SOMEWHAT WARMER
READINGS IN THE DEEPER MIXED NORTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
LOWER TO MID 60S ARE FORECAST THROUGH A MODEL BLEND FOR HIGHS...WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
ERVIN
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 647 AM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014
A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS AND WESTERN U.S. IS
PULLING GULF MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS AND PRECIP INTO THE
MIDWEST. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE DAY REACHING
MVFR THRESHOLDS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATER THIS MORNING AS LIGHT
RAIN CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND ADVECT INTO THE AREA. CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE TO WORSEN OVERNIGHT WITH IFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. WOLF
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WOLF
SHORT TERM...WOLF
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...WOLF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
1200 PM EDT SUN OCT 12 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1159 AM EDT SUN OCT 12 2014
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ONGOING ACROSS SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY AS A WEAK
MID-LEVEL WAVE MOVES ACROSS APPALACHIANS. THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS SOME
RESIDUAL POP COVERAGE LINGERING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...BEFORE A MORE ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDER MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IDEA IS
ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST 12Z NAM. AS SUCH...HAVE ADJUSTED THE
POPS TOWARD THIS SOLUTION...KEEPING A DRIER PERIOD LONGER ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE RAMPING THINGS UP TOWARDS DUSK. THIS WILL KEEP THE
THUNDER CHANCES MORE CONFINED TO SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME BREAKS IN CLOUD
COVER...HOWEVER MOST OF THE TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING A BIT COOLER
COMPARED TO THE FORECAST AND THE LATEST LAMP GUIDANCE ALSO HAS BEEN
TRENDING COOLER...SO ADJUSTED THE HIGHS DOWN A TOUCH. UPDATES HAVE
BEEN SENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 800 AM EDT SUN OCT 12 2014
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION FOR
TODAY AND TO MAKE SOME ADJUSTS TO THE CURRENT CONDITIONS. THE REST OF
THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM EDT SUN OCT 12 2014
THIS IS A VERY INTERESTING FORECAST FOR TODAY. CURRENTLY THERE IS A
SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHERN ARKANSAS WITH AN FRONT EXTENDING TO ANOTHER
LOW OVER NORTHERN ALABAMA. A FRONT THEN CONTINUES TO THE EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA. THE LOW OVER ARKANSAS IS FORECAST TO MOVE
SLOWLY TO THE NORTH. THE INTERESTING PART IS THAT THE MODELS ARE
HINTING THAT THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO THE NORTH. AS
IT DOES IT WILL FALL APART AND THEN REFORM TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL MAKE IT HARD TO FIGURE OUT WHAT WILL
HAPPEN AS THE FRONT TRANSITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. THE NAM GOES NUTS
TONIGHT SHOWING A STRONG AREA OF LIFT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AT
AROUND 11PM TONIGHT. THIS AREA OF LIFT IS NOT REFLECTED AT 500 HPA.
THE GFS SEEMS TO BE MUCH MORE REASONABLE. AS SUCH...THE FORECAST WILL
BE MUCH MORE STRONGLY INFLUENCED BY THE GFS AND ECMWF. AS THIS SYSTEM
MOVES NORTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...EXPECT TO INITIALLY SEE SOME OVER
RUNNING TYPE OF PRECIPITATION WITH SOME SPRINKLES TURNING TO LIGHT
RAIN. THIS AFTERNOON...WHEN THE AIR IS FINALLY ABLE TO MIX DOWN TO
THE SURFACE...EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL THEN BE IN THE MOIST WARM SECTOR.
THIS WILL ALSO CHANGE THE NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STARTING TO DOMINATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE
ATMOSPHERE IS REALLY MARGINAL FOR ANY SEVERE DEVELOPMENT TODAY. THERE
IS A BIT OF A MIX OF MARGINAL SHEAR AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY. THIS
COMBINATION WILL BE ABLE TO KICK OFF SOME THUNDERSTORMS...WITH SOME
STRONG STORMS POSSIBLY EMBEDDED IN THE MIX...HOWEVER SHOULD STAY
BELOW SEVERE CRITERIA. ONE CONCERN FOR TONIGHT IS THAT THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER IS FORECAST TO BE ABOUT 1.5 INCHES. CONSIDERING
HOW WET THE GROUND ALREADY IS...THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED FLOODING WITH STREAMS...DITCHES AND LOW WATER CROSSINGS
RUNNING FULL OVER AREAS THAT SEE STORMS REPEATEDLY MOVE ACROSS THE
SAME AREA. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
MOVES TO THE NORTH. DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE
MOIST AND UNSTABLE WITH SOME DECENT SHEAR. THE MISSING INGREDIENT IS
THE FORCING WHICH WILL BE TO THE WEST OF THE AREA AS A SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS IS ONE OF THOSE SITUATIONS...WHERE IF
SOME THUNDERSTORMS GET GOING...THE OUTFLOWS WILL THEN PRODUCE MORE
STORMS AND COULD THEN PROPAGATE ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS A POTENTIAL
FOR ONE OR TWO SEVERE STORMS TO FORM. THERE IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY
THAT VERY FEW STORMS FORM.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT SUN OCT 12 2014
THE EXTENDED BEGINS WITH AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE
WITH ALL ATTENTION IN THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED WITH A CLOSED
UPPER LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. UPPER LEVEL
FLOW FEATURES A 100 KNOT JET STREAK PASSING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH AS IT ENTERS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. WITH THIS
GENERAL PROGRESSION IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE GFS AND EURO HAVE
SURPRISINGLY COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE EURO SPEEDING UP
IT/S PROGRESSION OF THE LOW AND THE GFS SLOWING DOWN THE MOVEMENT
IN RECENT MODEL RUNS. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR A BETTER CONSENSUS
BETWEEN THE MODELS.
CLOSER TO THE SURFACE...A DEVELOPING 55 TO 70 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET
WILL SET UP AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. TIMING OF ANY STRONG STORMS OR SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE
MORE TOWARD TUESDAY MORNING MAKING AN UNFAVORABLE SITUATION FOR ANY
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE STORMS AS INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL AT
BEST. IF MODELS SLOW THE FEATURE DOWN A BIT MORE...LEANING TOWARDS
AN EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON ARRIVAL...THIS WILL BE A DIFFERENT STORY.
FOR NOW...ABOVE NORMAL PWATS WITH THIS SYSTEM AND SHOWERS WITH THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A CONCERN
HERE...ESPECIALLY WITH THE RECENT RAINFALL OVER THE WEEKEND. IN
ADDITION..THE STRONG WINDS OVERHEAD AND LIMITED INSTABILITY MAY
BRING SOME STRONGER WINDS TO THE SURFACE. MAY BE DEALING WITH A
SITUATION WITH STRONG SHOWERS RATHER THAN STRONG STORMS. DESPITE
THIS...IT IS WORTH MENTIONING THAT SPC WILL KEEP A 5 PERCENT RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER FOR THIS EVENT. WHILE STILL A BIT UNCLEAR...WINDS
WITH THIS SYSTEM MAY POSE THE NEED FOR HEADLINES CONCERNING
WINDS...PERHAPS EVEN CONCERNS FOR MOUNTAIN WAVES ALONG THE FAR
EASTERN COUNTIES. FOR POPS COLLABORATED WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES AND
WENT ABOVE THE SUPER BLEND MODEL AS THE CONSENSUS IN MODELS ADDED
MORE CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST AND WENT WITH CATEGORICAL.
AFTER THE FRONT PASSES...THE LINGERING LOW CENTER THAT IN PREVIOUS
RUNS WAS SLOW TO EXIT...MOVES THROUGH AND INTO THE SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND REGION BY FRIDAY. THIS IS EMBRACED BY BOTH THE GFS AND THE
EURO. FROM THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIME FRAME...LINGERING LOW
PRESSURE...CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WITH A LACK OF
INSTABILITY...PRECIP WILL BE ONLY SHOWER ACTIVITY. FRIDAY WILL
FEATURE THE LOW FINALLY EXITING AS HIGH PRESSURE AND MORE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES RETURN TO EASTERN KENTUCKY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT
313 AM EDT SUN OCT 12 2014
A MIXED BAG OF IFR AND LIFR STRATUS WILL PERSIST AT MOST OF THE TAF
SITES THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. WILL SEE SOME SIGNIFICANT
IMPROVEMENT AS THE AIR MIXES OUT THIS AFTERNOON AND THE FRONT MOVES
TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DECREASING
LATE IN THE PERIOD AND MOVING TO THE NORTH. EXPECT SOME FOG AGAIN IN
THE MORNING. THE EXTENT OF THE FOG WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH RAIN
ACTUALLY FALLS TODAY AND THIS EVENING.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...JJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
937 AM EDT SUN OCT 12 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN CHANCES RETURN TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT SURGES ACROSS THE
REGION. THE THREAT FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HI-RES MODELS LIKE THE HRRR AND THE RAP ARE STILL TRYING TO
GENERATE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON.
THINK THAT THESE MODELS ARE UNDERESTIMATING THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR
IN PLACE. 12Z PBZ SOUNDING TELLS THIS TALE PRETTY EMPHATICALLY.
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW DROPS REACHING THE GROUND ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST AS SHORTWAVE SKIMS BY TO THE SOUTH...BUT THAT SHOULD BE
IT. STILL DO EXPECT A CLOUD INCREASE LATER IN THE THE DAY THOUGH
AS FLOW TURNS SW ALOFT. LEFT POPS AFTER 00Z ALONE FOR NOW...BUT
MAY HAVE TO SLOW ONSET THERE A BIT AS WELL. TEMPERATURES TWEAKED
ACCORDING TO LAMP NUMBERS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EASTWARD TODAY. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT. THE BOUNDARY WILL PULL WARMER
AIR NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TRICKY FORECAST TONIGHT AS FRONT WILL CLEAR THE AREA DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. NOT MUCH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ALONG OR BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY AND HEIGHTS WILL RISE OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT ALLOWING FOR INCREASED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE...CAUGHT IN THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTH LATE TONIGHT. THIS ENERGY...COMBINING WITH A LOW LEVEL JET...
WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. WILL CONTINUE
WITH INCREASING POPS TO LIKELY OVERNIGHT. WITH THE STRONG FLOW OUT
OF THE SOUTH...TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL BE RISING.
UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BE SHEARED OFF TO THE EAST ON MONDAY...AND
THE AREA WILL BE WELL INTO THE WARM SECTOR. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
HEIGHTS SLOWLY RISE AS LARGE TROUGH DIGS AND DEEPENS OVER THE
CENTRAL US. THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS TO END MONDAY MORNING
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AND TEMPS TO WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.
MONDAY NIGHT LOOKS DRY AND MILD WITH A DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER.
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST BEGINS ON TUESDAY AS MODELS STILL HAVE NOT
COME TO AN AGREEMENT ON LOCATION...TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE
LARGE AND DEEP SYSTEM WHICH WILL BE GETTING WOUND UP OVER THE
CENTRAL US. WITH THE ENTIRE SYSTEM CUTTING OFF...AND THE SURFACE
LOW RAPIDLY DEEPENING...SLOWER PROGRESSION IS GENERALLY BETTER
WITH THESE TYPES OF SYSTEM. HAVE SLOWED THE ONSET OF POPS ON
TUESDAY AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THEY WILL HAVE TO BE HELD
BACK MORE. ENTIRE SYSTEM WILL OCCLUDE LATE TUESDAY. HOW FAST THE
OCCLUDED SURFACE FRONT SPINS AROUND THE SYSTEM WILL DETERMINE IF
THE AREA SEES SHOWERS TUESDAY. FOR CURRENT FORECAST WILL NOT STRAY
TOO FAR FROM PREVIOUS THINKING JUST SLOWING THINGS DOWN A BIT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE OCCLUDED FROM WILL REACH THE AREA SOMETIME TUESDAY NIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE TIMING OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS
FOR WHEN THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS REACH THE AREA. A CONVEYOR OF
MOISTURE WILL BE ESTABLISHING ITSELF WITH THE FRONT WHICH WILL
PULL MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF. BEHIND THE FRONT THE ENTIRE
SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST WEDNESDAY AND
OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE
RISK FOR SHOWERS. ENTIRE SYSTEM WILL EXIT THURSDAY NIGHT...DRYING
OUT THE AREA BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TODAY BEFORE A WARM FRONT LIFTS
ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AS RAISES A SLIGHT RISK OF INTER MITTEN
T MVFR CONDITIONS.
N ND L BE VEERING TED THE E TN GT...THEN SE TOMORROW AS A WARM FRONT
LIFTS ACRS THE REGION. SOME LATE DAY SHWRS MAY ACCOMPANY THAT
FEATURE ACRS SRN TERMINALS...BUT MORE WIDESPREAD PCPN AND RESTRICTIONS
SHOULD WAIT TIL NGTFALL.
.AVIATION /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THAT RESTRICTION POTENTIAL WL CONT FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK
AS DEEP LOW PRES SLIDES ACRS THE MIDWEST.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
728 AM EDT SUN OCT 12 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SUN OCT 12 2014
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW SHRTWV RDG MOVING
INTO THE WRN GREAT LKS TO THE E OF A DEEPENING UPR TROF IN THE
ROCKIES ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG SHRTWV DIGGING SEWD THRU THE PAC
NW. COMBINATION OF VERY DRY AIRMASS SHOWN ON THE 00Z GRB/MPX
RAOBS...WHERE THE 00Z PWAT WAS ABOUT 0.30 INCH OR 50 PCT OF
NORMAL...AND ACYC SW FLOW ARND SFC HI PRES CENTERED NEAR DETROIT IS
BRINGING ABOUT CLEAR SKIES EARLY THIS MRNG OVER UPR MI. TEMPS HAVE
FALLEN AS LO AS THE 20S AT THE COLD SPOTS OVER THE INTERIOR WHERE
THE WINDS HAVE DECOUPLED...BUT TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT AND A STEADY
DOWNSLOPE SSW WIND NEAR LK SUP HAVE HELD TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 40S
IN THOSE LOCATIONS. LOOKING UPSTREAM...MID/HI CLDS ARE ON THE INCRS
IN THE NRN PLAINS TO THE E OF THE DEEPENING TROF IN THE NRN ROCKIES.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM WL BE HI TEMPS TODAY AND THEN
PCPN CHCS TNGT AS THE SSW FLOW BTWN THE DEPARTING HI TO THE E AND
FALLING MSLP TO THE W AND SW TAPS MOISTER AIR OVER THE SRN CONUS.
TODAY...EXPECT A MOSUNNY DAY WITH DRY ACYC SSW FLOW DOMINATING THE
UPR GREAT LKS ON THE NW FLANK OF SFC HI PRES DRIFTING INTO NEW
ENGLAND LATE IN THE DAY. THE MODELS DO SHOW SOME INCRSG MID LVL MSTR
OVER THE W TOWARD 00Z MON...SO GRIDS WL SHOW MORE CLDS ARRIVING
THERE TOWARD SUNSET. THE 00Z GRB/MPX RAOBS INDICATED DAYTIME MIXING
REACHED TO H85 YDAY...SUPPORTING HI TEMPS REACHING THE LOWER 60S PER
FCST SDNGS AND IN LINE WITH UPSTREAM OBS ON SAT. EXPECT THE HIEST
TEMPS IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LK SUP. THE DAYTIME MIXING WL TAP
H925 WINDS UP TO 25 KTS AND CAUSE SOME GUSTY SFC WINDS.
TNGT...AS STRONG SHRTWV OVER THE PAC NW EARLY THIS MRNG DIGS INTO
THE SRN PLAINS...A DEEP UPR TROF IS FCST TO TAKE SHAPE TNGT IN THE
PLAINS...WITH A 998MB SFC LO FCST OVER OKLAHOME AT 12Z MON. ALTHOUGH
THE SLY SFC-H925 FLOW IS FCST TO SLOWLY WEAKEN UNDER WEAKENING PRES
GRADIENT OVER THE WRN GREAT LKS...MODELS SHOW SSW FLOW ALF E OF THE
DEEPENING TROF WL LIFT THE PWAT UP TO ARND 1 INCH OVER THE SRN CWA
BY 12Z MON. GIVEN THE INCRSD MOISTENING...MANY OF THE MODELS
GENERATE SOME LGT PCPN OVER AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA...MAINLY
AFTER 06Z OVER THE CENTRAL WHERE THERE IS SOME ISENTROPIC ASCENT
SHOWN ON THE 295K SFC /H8-85/. BUT IN ABSENCE OF ANY SGNFT DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC...IN FACT SOME OF THE MODELS SHOW DEEP LYR QVECTOR
DVGC AND SUBSIDENCE SO FAR N OF THE CYCLOGENESIS...OPTED TO GO NO
HIER THAN THE SCHC POPS SHOWN IN THE CURRENT FCST. THE INFLUX OF
MSTR WL LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP FALL DESPITE THE WEAKENING LLVL WINDS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SUN OCT 12 2014
...WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER IN STORE FOR EARLY THIS WEEK...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A DEEP UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE PLAINS AT 12Z MON CLOSING OFF BY TUE EVENING AS IT MOVES
OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A SFC LOW OVER OK AT 12Z SUN MOVES
NE WHILE BECOMING VERTICALLY STACKED BENEATH THE UPPER LOW. A FAIRLY
SHARP AREA OF DEFORMATION AND FRONTOGENETIC CIRCULATION DEVELOP
NEAR THE INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WHICH WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF FORCING
FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE ERN TWO THIRDS OF UPPER MI. THE BEST
MOISTURE ARRIVES LATE ON MON...WITH PWATS UP TO 1.5 INCHES OVER THE
FAR SERN CWA...WHICH IS 225-250 PERCENT OF NORMAL. BECAUSE OF
THIS...HELD OFF ON WIDESPREAD RAIN UNTIL LATE MON. AS IS OFTEN THE
CASE WITH STRONG DEFORMATION/FGEN PRECIP...A SHARP DRY CUTOFF IS
EXPECTED NW OF THE BEST FORCING...WHICH MAY LEAVE PORTIONS OF FAR
NWRN UPPER MI WITH AT LEAST MUCH LESS RAIN MON NIGHT.
GUSTY NORTH WINDS TUE-TUE NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR WAVES OF 7-9 FEET
ALONG THE SHORELINE OF MARQUETTE AND ALGER COUNTIES. GIVEN THE
RELATIVELY HIGH WATER LEVELS COMBINED WITH THE WAVE SETUP...THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MINOR BEACH EROSION IN THESE AREAS.
WITH THE UPPER LOW LINGERING S OF THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST
WED...CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW WILL PERSIST. HOWEVER...VERY DRY AIR WILL
BE LAID OUT OVER THE NWRN CWA...SO ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
CONFINED TO THE SERN CWA.
MODELS EXHIBIT POOR RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY AND MODEL TO MODEL
AGREEMENT AFTER WED WITH THE MERGING OF THE EXISTING SYSTEM AND
ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE REGION. HAVE VERY LOW CONFIDENCE FOR
THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
OVERALL...EXPECT TEMPS NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MID
WEEK...WITH COOLER CONDITIONS MORE LIKELY LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 726 AM EDT SUN OCT 12 2014
EXPECT SOME MARGINAL LLWS AT THE TAF SITES THIS MRNG BEFORE DAYTIME
HEATING MIXES OUT THE LLJ AND CAUSES GUSTY SSW WINDS THRU THE
AFTN...ESPECIALLY AT THE MORE EXPOSED SAW/IWD SITES. VERY DRY
AIRMASS SHOWN ON THE UPSTREAM 00Z MPX/GRB RAOBS WL BRING VFR WX TO
ALL 3 SITES INTO THIS EVNG. THE GUSTY WINDS WL DIMINISH TOWARD
SUNSET WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND WEAKENING PRES GRADIENT/LLVL
WINDS. CLDS WL BE ON THE INCRS TNGT AS THE DEEP S FLOW DRAWS MOISTER
AIR INTO THE UPR LKS. PLAN ON MVFR CIGS TO DVLP AT IWD AND PERHAPS
SAW LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD WITH THE ARRIVAL OF DEEPER MSTR S TO N.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SUN OCT 12 2014
GENERALLY QUIET MARINE WEATHER TODAY. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF
10-20 KT WILL PERSIST TODAY. TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
ALONG THE FRONT IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOUTH WINDS TO GRADUALLY
WEAKEN TONIGHT AND MONDAY...BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AND
INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KT LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT WITH WAVES
BUILDING TO 6-9 FEET. THE LOW WEAKENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WED WHILE
MOVING NORTHEAST...ALLOWING THE WINDS TO ALSO WEAKEN TO 10-20 KT.
SOUTH WINDS ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD
FRONT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...TITUS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
921 AM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 921 AM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS BEGINNING TO PIVOT INTO WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. THIS FEATURE IS SPARKING ELEVATED SCATTERED/NUMEROUS
RAIN SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHWESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO
CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY AS THE
UPPER TROUGH SWINGS EAST. ONLY UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCREASE
THE CLOUD COVER SOUTH FOR TODAY. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINING
FORECAST ELEMENTS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE
BEEN SENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014
DID ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH CENTRAL TODAY AS SPORADIC LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN
ASSOCIATED WITH THE RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA THROUGH
THE NIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014
THE MAIN IMPACT IN THE SHORT TERM IS RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN ACROSS CENTRAL MONTANA
AND WYOMING. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SOUTHWESTERN
MANITOBA...AND ON DOWN THROUGH THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. THESE FEATURES
WILL PROVIDE AMPLE ASCENT AND FOCUS FOR RAIN SHOWER DEVELOPMENT.
AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW MOVE FURTHER
EAST...RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF SOUTH DAKOTA
AND SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. THE MODELS (00 UTC ECMWF/GFS/NAM) HAVE
THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION CENTERED OVER NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA. HOWEVER...THEY STILL BRING OVER A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN
INTO NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94. THE RAP HAS HAD A GOOD
HANDLE ON THE ONGOING PRECIPITATION ACROSS MONTANA AND HAS
PRECIPITATION CONTINUING TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA AND
ENTERING WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AROUND 6 AM CDT.
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL BE COOLER THAN TODAY...WITH READINGS IN
THE 50S AND LOW 60S. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STEEPENS BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 30 MPH ARE LIKELY.
WINDS SHOULD DIE DOWN AFTER SUNSET AND RAIN SHOULD COME TO AN END
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST SHORTLY THEREAFTER.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY HIGHLIGHT THE
EXTENDED FORECAST.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO PROPAGATE INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. NAEFS 850-700 MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB
INTO THE THE 97TH-99TH PERCENTILES BY WEDNESDAY IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THIS RIDGE. THUS...A MILD DAY TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S IS FORECAST TO BE FOLLOWED BY WIDESPREAD
HIGHS IN THE 70S ON WEDNESDAY. THIS FOLLOWS THE WARMER EDGE OF THE
00 UTC GUIDANCE SUITE WHICH HAS VERIFIED BEST OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS. THEREAFTER...A SHORTWAVE COMING ON SHORE TO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE
THURSDAY...WITH A DEEPENING EASTERN CONUS TROUGH...PLACING THE
NORTHERN PLAINS UNDER CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE
END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS FAVORS A RETURN TO TEMPERATURES NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014
RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING...BECOMING FOCUSED ACROSS THE
SOUTH CENTRAL AND EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. MVFR
CONDITIONS IN RAIN ARE EXPECTED. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING
TO 25-30 KTS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
644 AM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014
DID ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH CENTRAL TODAY AS SPORADIC LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN
ASSOCIATED WITH THE RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA THROUGH
THE NIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014
THE MAIN IMPACT IN THE SHORT TERM IS RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN ACROSS CENTRAL MONTANA
AND WYOMING. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SOUTHWESTERN
MANITOBA...AND ON DOWN THROUGH THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. THESE FEATURES
WILL PROVIDE AMPLE ASCENT AND FOCUS FOR RAIN SHOWER DEVELOPMENT.
AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW MOVE FURTHER
EAST...RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF SOUTH DAKOTA
AND SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. THE MODELS (00 UTC ECMWF/GFS/NAM) HAVE
THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION CENTERED OVER NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA. HOWEVER...THEY STILL BRING OVER A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN
INTO NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94. THE RAP HAS HAD A GOOD
HANDLE ON THE ONGOING PRECIPITATION ACROSS MONTANA AND HAS
PRECIPITATION CONTINUING TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA AND
ENTERING WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AROUND 6 AM CDT.
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL BE COOLER THAN TODAY...WITH READINGS IN
THE 50S AND LOW 60S. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STEEPENS BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 30 MPH ARE LIKELY.
WINDS SHOULD DIE DOWN AFTER SUNSET AND RAIN SHOULD COME TO AN END
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST SHORTLY THEREAFTER.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY HIGHLIGHT THE
EXTENDED FORECAST.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO PROPAGATE INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. NAEFS 850-700 MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB
INTO THE THE 97TH-99TH PERCENTILES BY WEDNESDAY IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THIS RIDGE. THUS...A MILD DAY TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S IS FORECAST TO BE FOLLOWED BY WIDESPREAD
HIGHS IN THE 70S ON WEDNESDAY. THIS FOLLOWS THE WARMER EDGE OF THE
00 UTC GUIDANCE SUITE WHICH HAS VERIFIED BEST OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS. THEREAFTER...A SHORTWAVE COMING ON SHORE TO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE
THURSDAY...WITH A DEEPENING EASTERN CONUS TROUGH...PLACING THE
NORTHERN PLAINS UNDER CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE
END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS FAVORS A RETURN TO TEMPERATURES NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014
RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING...BECOMING FOCUSED ACROSS THE
SOUTH CENTRAL AND EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. MVFR
CONDITIONS IN RAIN ARE EXPECTED. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING
TO 25-30 KTS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1041 AM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014
.DISCUSSION...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING PLACES A QUASI-
STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER NORTHERN/CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA.
REGIONAL WSR-88D RADAR TRENDS SHOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BEGINNING TO INCREASE ACROSS THE MID SOUTH AS A SUBTLE MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MOVES ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS OF 10 AM CDT...TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE MID SOUTH RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL AND FAR NORTHWEST
TENNESSEE...AND 60S TO LOWER 70S ELSEWHERE. AFTERNOON FORECAST
REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE OVERALL AND UPDATE WAS TO ACCOUNT FOR
CONVECTIVE/TEMPERATURE TRENDS.
UPDATED GRIDS ALREADY SENT.
CJC
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 AM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014/
UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014/
DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...A STATIONARY FRONT IS LOCATED FROM NORTHERN ALABAMA
INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. THERE ARE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG PREVALENT ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE MID SOUTH. THE FOG IS BECOMING DENSE IN MANY
LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY AROUND THE MEMPHIS METRO SO WILL ISSUE A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR EARLY THIS MORNING. TEMPS THIS MORNING
RANGE FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS THE NORTH TO LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS
NORTH MISSISSIPPI.
TODAY...THE FRONT WILL MOVE BACK NORTH THROUGH THE DAY AS A WARM
FRONT AND BY THIS AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL BE BACK INTO THE 70S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA WITH A SOUTHERLY BREEZE AND DEWPOINTS RISING INTO
THE MID 60S. 00Z MODELS AND THE LATEST HRRR ARE INDICATING SOME
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND WEST TENNESSEE
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE AIRMASS DESTABILIZES WITH LIFTED INDEX
VALUES OF -4C AND SBCAPES OF 1200-1500 J/KG. THERE COULD BE A FEW
STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. UPPED POPS A BIT
NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER AND NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS ACTIVITY. THE FRONT WILL TAKE LONGER TO MOVE THROUGH
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS SO TEMPS THERE SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S
OR LOWER 70S WITH LOWER CHANCES OF PRECIP.
TONIGHT...A POTENT UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS OVERNIGHT AND BE LOCATED IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA BY 12Z MON.
MEANWHILE A DEVELOPING SURFACE WILL BE LOCATED IN NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AT THE SAME TIME. ANY ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL PROBABLY DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING. AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES A BELT OF 40-50 KT MID LEVEL FLOW AND AN INCREASING
850 MB LLJ OF 40+ KTS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA. AS A RESULT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD START DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE MS RIVER. THE STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
TRANSPORT MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR NORTHWARD WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S...SBCAPES 500-1000 J/KG AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. SHEAR WILL BE INCREASING WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 40
KTS AFTER 09Z MON. THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY THAT THESE STORMS
COULD BE SEVERE AND POSSIBLY SURFACE BASED. SO THOUGH THE FOCUS IS
ON THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATER ON MONDAY WILL NEED TO WATCH
THIS PERIOD OF TIME FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...SEVERE WEATHER EVENT LOOKING LIKELY
WHICH IS CORROBORATED NICELY BY THE CIPS ANALOG PAGE FROM SLU. THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL PIVOT EAST DURING THE DAY AND MOVE TO THE
NORTHEAST OK/SOUTHWEST MO AREA BY 00Z TUE AND THEN INTO CENTRAL
MISSOURI OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS INTO TO ST
LOUIS BY 12Z TUESDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS
THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THE 00Z MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT.
TYPICAL DISAGREEMENTS IN TIMING EXIST WITH THE GFS A LITTLE FASTER
AND THE NAM/ECMWF A FEW HOURS SLOWER. GENERALLY TOOK A COMPROMISE
APPROACH TO TIMING. MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
NORTH IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM AS DEWPOINTS CLIMB INTO THE UPPER
60S TO AROUND 70F. SURFACE HEATING IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM WILL
HELP TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S WHILE STRONG
HEIGHT FALLS SPREAD THE REGION. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF
6.5-7C WILL BE PRESENT AND SBCAPES WILL CLIMB TO 1500-2000 J/KG.
MEANWHILE THE LLJ WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY UP TO 55 KTS OVER THE
DELTA BY 18Z MONDAY WHILE A 80-90 KT MID LEVEL JET BEGINS TO PUNCH
INTO THE REGION. LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE QUITE ADEQUATE WITH 0-1KM
SHEAR VALUES OF 300 M2/S2...POSSIBLY HIGHER WITH THE SURFACE LOW
TRACKING INTO MISSOURI WHICH WILL CAUSE ADDITIONAL BACKING OF THE
SURFACE WINDS. EXPECT BROKEN LINE SEGMENTS OF STORMS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS ARKANSAS WITH SOME DISCRETE CELLS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE DELTA
REGION IN THE AFTERNOON. THE LINES WILL EVENTUALLY CONGEAL INTO A
QLCS NEAR THE MS RIVER AND PUSH EAST DURING THE EVENING EVENTUALLY
EXITING THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS THOUGH A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IF
DISCRETE CELLS CAN FORM EARLY ON DURING THE EVENT. A FEW TORNADOES
WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THE BOWING SEGMENTS OF THE QLCS AS IT
PUSHES EAST AS WELL. HAIL WOULD BE A SECONDARY THREAT AND MOST
COMMON EARLY ON.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE ECMWF FOR
THIS TIME PERIOD...SURPRISE. AS A RESULT IT LOOKS CLOUDIER AND
COOLER WITH SOME SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER NE SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. TUESDAY WILL BE COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND BIT
WARMER ON WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...UPPER LOW EXITS AND WARMER ZONAL FLOW
TAKES OVER. DRY AND TEMPS REBOUNDING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF
THE WEEK.
SJM
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS
LIFR CIGS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH FOG AND SCATTERED SHOWERS.
CONDITIONS WILL LIFT TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY VFR THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING. TUP WILL HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ACTIVITY ON STATION...WITH VCTS AT MEM AND MKL. CIGS
WILL LOWER BACK TO MVFR TONIGHT WITH NEW STORMS DEVELOPING NEAR
JBR. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL VEER MORE SOUTHERLY AND SLOWLY INCREASE.
WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT JBR NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD.
JAB
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MORRISTOWN TN
1005 AM EDT SUN OCT 12 2014
.DISCUSSION...
THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON THE MAIN AREAS OF
RAINFALL THIS MORNING. THE GENERAL TREND THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON WILL BE FOR THE AREA OF SHOWERS NOW BETWEEN TYS AND TRI
TO MOVE NE...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...THE JET STREAK OVER TEXARKANA TO NRN MS WILL TRACK INTO
WEST AND MIDDLE TN...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASED ACTIVITY IN
OUR WESTERN SECTIONS. SATELLITE IS SHOWING SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS SOUTH...SO DESTABILIZATION IN THAT AREA SHOULD LEAD TO MORE
TS. SEVERE POTENTIAL LOOKS LOW AT THIS TIME ALTHOUGH WITH GREATER
HEATING SOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE.
THE FORECAST WILL BE UPDATED TO REFLECT THESE TRENDS...MENTIONING
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TS LATE THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH AND
WEST. TEMPERATURES APPEAR ON TRACK SO FAR.
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
DGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
621 AM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014/
DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...A STATIONARY FRONT IS LOCATED FROM NORTHERN ALABAMA
INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. THERE ARE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG PREVALENT ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE MIDSOUTH. THE FOG IS BECOMING DENSE IN MANY
LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY AROUND THE MEMPHIS METRO SO WILL ISSUE A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR EARLY THIS MORNING. TEMPS THIS MORNING
RANGE FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS THE NORTH TO LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS
NORTH MISSISSIPPI.
TODAY...THE FRONT WILL MOVE BACK NORTH THROUGH THE DAY AS A WARM
FRONT AND BY THIS AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL BE BACK INTO THE 70S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA WITH A SOUTHERLY BREEZE AND DEWPOINTS RISING INTO
THE MID 60S. 00Z MODELS AND THE LATEST HRRR ARE INDICATING SOME
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND WEST TENNESSEE
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE AIRMASS DESTABILIZES WITH LIFTED INDEX
VALUES OF -4C AND SBCAPES OF 1200-1500 J/KG. THERE COULD BE A FEW
STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. UPPED POPS A BIT
NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER AND NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS ACTIVITY. THE FRONT WILL TAKE LONGER TO MOVE THROUGH
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS SO TEMPS THERE SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S
OR LOWER 70S WITH LOWER CHANCES OF PRECIP.
TONIGHT...A POTENT UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS OVERNIGHT AND BE LOCATED IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA BY 12Z MON.
MEANWHILE A DEVELOPING SURFACE WILL BE LOCATED IN NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AT THE SAME TIME. ANY ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL PROBABLY DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING. AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES A BELT OF 40-50 KT MID LEVEL FLOW AND AN INCREASING
850 MB LLJ OF 40+ KTS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA. AS A RESULT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD START DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE MS RIVER. THE STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
TRANSPORT MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR NORTHWARD WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S...SBCAPES 500-1000 J/KG AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. SHEAR WILL BE INCREASING WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 40
KTS AFTER 09Z MON. THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY THAT THESE STORMS
COULD BE SEVERE AND POSSIBLY SURFACE BASED. SO THOUGH THE FOCUS IS
ON THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATER ON MONDAY WILL NEED TO WATCH
THIS PERIOD OF TIME FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...SEVERE WEATHER EVENT LOOKING LIKELY
WHICH IS CORROBORATED NICELY BY THE CIPS ANALOG PAGE FROM SLU. THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL PIVOT EAST DURING THE DAY AND MOVE TO THE
NORTHEAST OK/SOUTHWEST MO AREA BY 00Z TUE AND THEN INTO CENTRAL
MISSOURI OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS INTO TO ST
LOUIS BY 12Z TUESDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS
THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THE 00Z MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT.
TYPICAL DISAGREEMENTS IN TIMING EXIST WITH THE GFS A LITTLE FASTER
AND THE NAM/ECMWF A FEW HOURS SLOWER. GENERALLY TOOK A COMPROMISE
APPROACH TO TIMING. MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
NORTH IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM AS DEWPOINTS CLIMB INTO THE UPPER
60S TO AROUND 70F. SURFACE HEATING IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM WILL
HELP TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S WHILE STRONG
HEIGHT FALLS SPREAD THE REGION. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF
6.5-7C WILL BE PRESENT AND SBCAPES WILL CLIMB TO 1500-2000 J/KG.
MEANWHILE THE LLJ WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY UP TO 55 KTS OVER THE
DELTA BY 18Z MONDAY WHILE A 80-90 KT MID LEVEL JET BEGINS TO PUNCH
INTO THE REGION. LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE QUITE ADEQUATE WITH 0-1KM
SHEAR VALUES OF 300 M2/S2...POSSIBLY HIGHER WITH THE SURFACE LOW
TRACKING INTO MISSOURI WHICH WILL CAUSE ADDITIONAL BACKING OF THE
SURFACE WINDS. EXPECT BROKEN LINE SEGMENTS OF STORMS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS ARKANSAS WITH SOME DISCRETE CELLS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE DELTA
REGION IN THE AFTERNOON. THE LINES WILL EVENTUALLY CONGEAL INTO A
QLCS NEAR THE MS RIVER AND PUSH EAST DURING THE EVENING EVENTUALLY
EXITING THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS THOUGH A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IF
DISCRETE CELLS CAN FORM EARLY ON DURING THE EVENT. A FEW TORNADOES
WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THE BOWING SEGMENTS OF THE QLCS AS IT
PUSHES EAST AS WELL. HAIL WOULD BE A SECONDARY THREAT AND MOST
COMMON EARLY ON.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE ECMWF FOR
THIS TIME PERIOD...SURPRISE. AS A RESULT IT LOOKS CLOUDIER AND
COOLER WITH SOME SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER NE SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. TUESDAY WILL BE COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND BIT
WARMER ON WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...UPPER LOW EXITS AND WARMER ZONAL FLOW
TAKES OVER. DRY AND TEMPS REBOUNDING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF
THE WEEK.
SJM
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS
LIFR CIGS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH FOG AND SCATTERED SHOWERS.
CONDITIONS WILL LIFT TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY VFR THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING. TUP WILL HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ACTIVITY ON STATION...WITH VCTS AT MEM AND MKL. CIGS
WILL LOWER BACK TO MVFR TONIGHT WITH NEW STORMS DEVELOPING NEAR
JBR. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL VEER MORE SOUTHERLY AND SLOWLY INCREASE.
WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT JBR NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD.
JAB
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR CLAY-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-
MISSISSIPPI-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.
MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR DUNKLIN-
PEMISCOT.
MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR COAHOMA-
DESOTO-MARSHALL-TATE-TUNICA.
TN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR BENTON TN-
CARROLL-CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-
HARDEMAN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-
OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
320 PM MDT SUN OCT 12 2014
CORRECTED HAZARDS SECTION
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 246 PM MDT SUN OCT 12 2014
ACTIVE WEATHER DAY CONTINUES WITH SNOW...RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALL PLAYING A PART. THE COLD FRONT RESPONSIBLE FOR
THE PRECIP HAS ALREADY PUSHED OUT OF THE CWA AND DID SO FASTER
THAN ANTICIPATED. IN FACT...IT MOVED OVER DURANGO AROUND NOON
WHICH WAS SEVERAL HOURS QUICKER THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST. EVEN
SO...THE ASSOCIATED SNOWFALL CAUSED SOME HEADACHES OVER MTN PASSES
ESPECIALLY VAIL PASS THAT WAS CLOSED FOR SOME TIME THIS MORNING
AND AFTERNOON. LOCAL SNOTELS SHOWING UPWARDS OF 6 INCHES HAVING
FALLEN NEAR TOWER AND SPOTTERS REPORTING AN INCH OR TWO AT MTN
BASES THOUGH THAT SNOW QUICKLY MELTED. UNSETTLED W TO NW FLOW HAS
SET UP BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL KEEP PRECIP IN THE PICTURE
THROUGH THIS AFTN AND EVENING. ONE BIG DIFFERENCE FOR THIS TIME
FRAME IS THE ON AGAIN OFF AGAIN NATURE OF THE PRECIP DUE TO ITS
CONVECTIVE NATURE. WILL KEEP ADVISORIES IN PLACE. OF NOTE IS
LATEST RAP13 AND HRRR SHOWING PRECIP REALLY WINDING DOWN EARLY
THIS EVENING AS OPPOSED TO MIDNIGHT SO CHANCE DOES EXIST FOR SOME
WINTER HIGHLIGHTS TO BE PULLED DOWN EARLY.
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT AND REFLECTED IN ALMOST ALL AREAS
REPORTING WIND GUSTS. THESE GUSTS HAVE RANGED FROM 20 MPH TO 45
MPH AT THE DURANGO AIRPORT. THE WIND WILL SLOWLY START DYING DOWN
N OF I-70 A LITTLE AFTER 6PM WHILE AREAS SOUTH WILL BE A LITTLE
LATER. THE WIND ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE. ALSO UPGRADED THE FREEZE
WATCH TO WARNINGS AS GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING BELOW FREEZING TEMPS
OVERNIGHT WHICH MAKES SENSE AS NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
USHER IN COLD AIR WHILE CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE. A BRISK MORNING
IN STORE.
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN MONDAY BRINGING A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF PRECIP-FREE WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND AS
DESCRIBED BELOW.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM MDT SUN OCT 12 2014
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION TUESDAY
BRINGING VERY DRY AND PLEASANT AUTUMN CONDITIONS. THE RIDGE AXIS
MOVES EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS A PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH MOVES
ONSHORE. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN PART
OF OUR FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND RIDGE TIGHTENS. GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS ON THE
RIDGE FLATTENING AND COOLER AIR OVER NORTHERN UTAH AND COLORADO ON
THURSDAY BEFORE RIDGING STRENGTHENS AGAIN ON FRIDAY.
THE LONG RANGE FORECAST MODELS DIVERGE ON SATURDAY BUT BOTH KEEP
CONDITIONS DRY NEXT WEEKEND THROUGHOUT THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1136 AM MDT SUN OCT 12 2014
WIDESPREAD SNOW AND RAIN WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH MVFR TO IFR BEING COMMON. TRICKY FORECAST FOR MTN TAF SITES
AS HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY DROP FLT CONDITIONS AND THEN BRING
THEM BACK UP IN SHORT ORDER. KEPT MOST TAF SITES VFR WITH SOME
TEMPO GROUPS TO ACCOUNT FOR LOWER CONDITIONS THOUGH WILL UPDATE IF
LOWER CONDITIONS BECOME MORE PREDOMINANT. OTHER CONCERN TODAY IS
GUSTY WINDS WITH REPORTS AT AIRPORTS VARYING FROM 30 MPH UP TO 45
MPH. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
WITH THESE STRONG WINDS...WIND SHEAR ALSO A CONCERN THROUGH THE
DAYTIME HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE OVERNIGHT.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ021-022.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR COZ004-
010-012-013.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ018.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM MDT MONDAY FOR COZ001-007-008-
020>022.
UT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR UTZ022-029.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...TGR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
249 PM MDT SUN OCT 12 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 246 PM MDT SUN OCT 12 2014
ACTIVE WEATHER DAY CONTINUES WITH SNOW...RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALL PLAYING A PART. THE COLD FRONT RESPONSIBLE FOR
THE PRECIP HAS ALREADY PUSHED OUT OF THE CWA AND DID SO FASTER
THAN ANTICIPATED. IN FACT...IT MOVED OVER DURANGO AROUND NOON
WHICH WAS SEVERAL HOURS QUICKER THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST. EVEN
SO...THE ASSOCIATED SNOWFALL CAUSED SOME HEADACHES OVER MTN PASSES
ESPECIALLY VAIL PASS THAT WAS CLOSED FOR SOME TIME THIS MORNING
AND AFTERNOON. LOCAL SNOTELS SHOWING UPWARDS OF 6 INCHES HAVING
FALLEN NEAR TOWER AND SPOTTERS REPORTING AN INCH OR TWO AT MTN
BASES THOUGH THAT SNOW QUICKLY MELTED. UNSETTLED W TO NW FLOW HAS
SET UP BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL KEEP PRECIP IN THE PICTURE
THROUGH THIS AFTN AND EVENING. ONE BIG DIFFERENCE FOR THIS TIME
FRAME IS THE ON AGAIN OFF AGAIN NATURE OF THE PRECIP DUE TO ITS
CONVECTIVE NATURE. WILL KEEP ADVISORIES IN PLACE. OF NOTE IS
LATEST RAP13 AND HRRR SHOWING PRECIP REALLY WINDING DOWN EARLY
THIS EVENING AS OPPOSED TO MIDNIGHT SO CHANCE DOES EXIST FOR SOME
WINTER HIGHLIGHTS TO BE PULLED DOWN EARLY.
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT AND REFLECTED IN ALMOST ALL AREAS
REPORTING WIND GUSTS. THESE GUSTS HAVE RANGED FROM 20 MPH TO 45
MPH AT THE DURANGO AIRPORT. THE WIND WILL SLOWLY START DYING DOWN
N OF I-70 A LITTLE AFTER 6PM WHILE AREAS SOUTH WILL BE A LITTLE
LATER. THE WIND ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE. ALSO UPGRADED THE FREEZE
WATCH TO WARNINGS AS GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING BELOW FREEZING TEMPS
OVERNIGHT WHICH MAKES SENSE AS NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
USHER IN COLD AIR WHILE CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE. A BRISK MORNING
IN STORE.
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN MONDAY BRINGING A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF PRECIP-FREE WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND AS
DESCRIBED BELOW.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM MDT SUN OCT 12 2014
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION TUESDAY
BRINGING VERY DRY AND PLEASANT AUTUMN CONDITIONS. THE RIDGE AXIS
MOVES EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS A PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH MOVES
ONSHORE. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN PART
OF OUR FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND RIDGE TIGHTENS. GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS ON THE
RIDGE FLATTENING AND COOLER AIR OVER NORTHERN UTAH AND COLORADO ON
THURSDAY BEFORE RIDGING STRENGTHENS AGAIN ON FRIDAY.
THE LONG RANGE FORECAST MODELS DIVERGE ON SATURDAY BUT BOTH KEEP
CONDITIONS DRY NEXT WEEKEND THROUGHOUT THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1136 AM MDT SUN OCT 12 2014
WIDESPREAD SNOW AND RAIN WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH MVFR TO IFR BEING COMMON. TRICKY FORECAST FOR MTN TAF SITES
AS HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY DROP FLT CONDITIONS AND THEN BRING
THEM BACK UP IN SHORT ORDER. KEPT MOST TAF SITES VFR WITH SOME
TEMPO GROUPS TO ACCOUNT FOR LOWER CONDITIONS THOUGH WILL UPDATE IF
LOWER CONDITIONS BECOME MORE PREDOMINANT. OTHER CONCERN TODAY IS
GUSTY WINDS WITH REPORTS AT AIRPORTS VARYING FROM 30 MPH UP TO 45
MPH. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
WITH THESE STRONG WINDS...WIND SHEAR ALSO A CONCERN THROUGH THE
DAYTIME HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE OVERNIGHT.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ021-022.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR COZ004-
010-012-013.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ018.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM MDT MONDAY FOR COZ001-007-008-
020.
UT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR UTZ022-029.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...TGR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
319 PM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014
.DISCUSSION...
318 PM CDT
SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...MAIN ISSUES WILL BE INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AND CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A DENSE COULD DECK STREAMING NORTHWARD INTO NERN
IL/NWRN IN IN ADVANCE OF A DEVELOPING SFC/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE WRN PLAINS AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.
A WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TRACKING ACROSS ERN IA AND WRN IL IS
GENERATING SOME SCT SHRA...BUT THE SHRA ARE SCATTERED AND INITIALLY
CONFINED TO AREAS WEST OF THE FOX VALLEY. AS THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS
NEWD...EXPECT THAT SOME SHRA SHOULD EVENTUALLY SPREAD INTO THE
ROCKFORD AND CHICAGO METRO AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING...BUT ANY PCPN AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND MANY LOCATIONS
WILL LIKELY NOT RECEIVE ANY MEASURABLE PCPN. ANY PCPN ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SHORTWAVE SHOULD PUSH AWAY FROM THE AREA DURING THE LATE
NIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. IN THE PREVAILING SELY FLOW TODAY...TEMPS HAVE
BEEN ABLE TO CLIMB A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY...TOPPING OUT
IN MOST AREAS IN THE LOWER 60S...EXCEPT FOR THE ILLINOIS SHORE OF
LAKE MICHIGAN...WHERE THE PREVAILING ONSHORE FLOW HAS LIMITED TEMPS
TO THE MIDDLE 50S. WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND PERSISTENT WARM
ADVECTION SETTING UP THROUGH A DEEP LAYER OF THE ATMOSPHERE
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER FOR
MONDAY MORNING...WITH LOWS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
50S.
LONGER TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...PCPN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY AS THE NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE
DIGGING INTO THE SOUTH HIGH PLAINS CLOSES OFF INTO A CLOSED
CIRCULATION BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE LOW CENTER SHOULD BEGIN TO
LIFT NEWD THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...MOVING TO ERN KS/WRN MO BY
MONDAY EVENING. THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SETTLED INTO A VERY
CONSISTENT SOLUTION FOR MONDAY...LIFTING THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW INTO
CNTRL MO...WITH AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING NORTHEAST INTO
WISCONSIN...SPREADING WARM SECTOR AIR OVER THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY
ON MONDAY. WITH AN OPEN GULF OF MEXICO...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL
STREAM NWD...WITH SFC DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE LOWER 60S AND PWATS
REACHING 1.6 INCHES. PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD SPREAD
INTO THE SWRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA DURG THE MORNING HOURS...SPREADING
NORTH AND EAST TO THE ROCKFORD AND CHICAGO METRO AREAS BY AROUND
NOON. CURRENT INDICATORS SUGGEST THAT THE GREATEST CONCERN WITH
THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE UNSEASONABLY HIGH PWATS WILL ALLOW ANY STORMS
TO BE VERY EFFICIENT PRECIPITATORS AND RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1
TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME STORMS. A VERY
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET POINTING INTO THE SERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
SHOULD HELP ORGANIZE STORMS INTO A LINEAR MODE WITH AN EXTENSIVE
SQUALL LINE POSSIBLY DEVELOPING...THOUGH THERE COULD BE SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR FOR DISCRETE SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT IN THE WARM SECTOR...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ON MONDAY. INTO THE EVENING...THE GREATEST STRONG
THUNDERSTORM THREAT SHOULD BEING TO SHIFT TO THE EAST...INTO INDIANA
AND OHIO AS THE SFC LOW TRACKS ALONG THE INVERTED TROUGH
AXIS...TAKING THE PATH OF LEAST RESISTANCE THROUGH NRN IL AND TO THE
FAR SRN TIP OF LAKE MICHIGAN. HAVE GENERALLY LIMITED THUNDERSTORMS
ACTIVITY TO THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW ANS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WITH SFC FLOW QUICKLY SHIFTING TO MORE NLY AS THE LOW SLOWLY
MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST. EXPECT THAT THE PERIOD OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL
WILL BE FROM LATE MORNING MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN SHIFTING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LATEST GUIDANCE HAS BEEN RAMPING UP THE QPF AMOUNTS...
WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE THROUGH THIS PERIOD. SO...LATEST THINKING
IS THAT MUCH OF THE CWA COULD SEE AREAL AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
2 TO 2.5 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN ANY AREAS OF
THUNDERSTORM TRAINING.
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM WILL SLOW WITH THE LARGER SCALE MODEL GUIDANCE
CONVERGING TOWARD A SOLUTION OF CUTTING OFF THE UPPER LOW FROM THE
MEAN WESTERLIES...WITH THE UPPER LOW MEANDERING AROUND THE MIDWEST
AT LEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AFTER WEDNESDAY...THE MODELS STILL
BEGIN TO DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY IN TIMING WHEN THE CUT OFF UPPER LOW
WILL WEAKEN INTO AN OPEN WAVE AND EJECT TO THE NORTHEAST. THE
LATEST FORECAST UPDATE MAINTAINS THE IDEA OF A SLOWER EVOLUTION AS
HAS BEEN ADVERTISED BY THE ECMWF...WHICH DOES NOT KICK THE SYSTEM
OUT UNTIL A STRONG PACIFIC JET PUSHES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
SO...WILL CONTINUE A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH CHANCES FOR
ISOLD/SCT SHRA INTO THURSDAY.
WHILE FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS STILL RELATIVELY LOW FROM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND BEYOND WITH THE GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING A DIVERSE SPREAD OF
SOLUTIONS IN THE LONG WAVE PATTERN...WILL CARRY A DRY FORECAST INTO
THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WHEN THE ECMWF
ADVERTISES RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.
KREIN
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...
* CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH BETTER CHANCES OVERNIGHT
AND MONDAY AFTERNOON.
* CIGS LOWERING TO MVFR THIS EVENING AND POSSIBLY IFR OVERNIGHT.
* VISIBILITY DECREASING IN THE PREDAWN HOURS MONDAY.
BMD
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
THERE WILL BE PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN THE TAF PERIOD WITH
THE BEST CHANCES OCCURRING TONIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. OUT
THE GATE...DRY CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE OVER THE TERMINALS HOWEVER
MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN STEADILY LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE
DAY ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THESE
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SOME IN COVERAGE AS THEY ENCOUNTER
DRY AIR...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIP AT THE TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON OCCURRING AT DPA AND RFD AHEAD OF THE STRONGEST RADAR
RETURNS. MOST MODELS INDICATE THAT PRECIP COVERAGE WILL INCREASE
AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
ACROSS THE REGION. IN ADDITION...CIGS ARE PROGGED TO LOWER THROUGH
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE SURFACE WARM FRONT/FRONTAL
TROUGH APPROACHES AND MVFR APPEARS LIKELY AND THERE IS A DECENT SHOT
FOR A WINDOW OF IFR IN THE PREDAWN HOURS. VSBY MAY ALSO BE REDUCED
AT THIS TIME PER MOS GUIDANCE. A CLOSED UPPER LOW AND ATTENDANT
SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO LIFT FROM OK INTO NRN MO BY MIDDAY
TOMORROW. PRECIPITATION...MAINLY RAIN WITH A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS...WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AGAIN AROUND THIS TIME AND
IS EXPECTED TO LAST WELL BEYOND THE END OF THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD AS
THE LOW VERY SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY EAST TO THE OHIO VALLEY BY AROUND
MIDWEEK.
BMD
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN SHRA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT...AND MEDIUM-HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN SHOWERS STARTING AROUND MID AFTERNOON MONDAY.
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS/TIMING...LOW-MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE IN IFR CIGS/VSBY.
BMD
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
MONDAY NIGHT...PERIODIC IFR LIKELY WITH PREVAILING IFR POSSIBLE.
PERIODS OF RAIN AND TSRA.
TUESDAY...OCNL -SHRA. IFR POSSIBLE...MVFR LIKELY.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF -SHRA AND MVFR CIGS.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...VFR PROBABLE.
KJB
&&
.MARINE...
201 PM CDT
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR THE INCOMING STORM
SYSTEM...BUT THERE IS INCREASED CONFIDENCE FOR NORTHERLY
GALES...ESPECIALLY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. THE POTENTIAL
STILL EXISTS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY GALES AHEAD OF IT.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORMING EAST OF THE ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON
AND WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THEN PUSH NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE MISSOURI VALLEY ON MONDAY. THE TROUGH AXIS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW WILL BISECT THE LAKE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ON
MONDAY NIGHT CREATING A SHARP DIVIDING LINE BETWEEN SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
WINDS AND NORTH WINDS ON THE NORTH HALF OF THE LAKE. ON TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT THE LOW WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AND PASS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
LAKE MICHIGAN. AHEAD OF THE LOW ON MONDAY NIGHT...THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE LAKE WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 20-30
KT...POSSIBLY A FEW GUSTS TO 35 KT. EXPECT WAVES TO BUILD ON THE
WEST SIDE OF THE LAKE DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THEN AS THE LOW TRACKS
EAST TOWARD LAKE MICHIGAN...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO CENTRAL
ONTARIO. DURING THIS TIME EXPECT NORTH WINDS TO GALE FORCE. AT
THIS POINT THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE HAS THE BEST CHANCE TO
SEE GALE FORCE GUSTS AS THE LOW LOOKS TO BE WEAKENING LATER
TUESDAY...BUT SOME STRONGER WINDS MAY SPREAD DOWN THE REMAINDER OF
THE LAKE ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT WAVES TO INCREASE
CONSIDERABLY...ESPEICALLY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A NORTHERLY
FETCH OF WINDS CONTINUES FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME. THE LOW
EVENTUALLY FILLS AND GETS KICKED EAST BY ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA.
KMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
251 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2014
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014
First band of showers has lifted north of the forecast area this
afternoon, although additional showers are starting to increase near
Effingham and especially near the south tip of the state.
Short term focus shifting to strong storm system that is digging
southward across the Rockies. 120 knot jet currently extending as
far south as New Mexico, which will sharpen the upper trough across
the Plains overnight. As this happens, 40-45 knot low level jet will
ramp up this evening across the eastern half of the CWA into
northern Indiana, helping to fire additional showers there this
evening. Further west, higher resolution models trying to focus a
relative lull in the precipitation for a few hours this evening,
before ramping things up quickly again after 2-3 am. Warm air
advection with the jet will keep temperatures fairly steady
overnight across the forecast area.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014
Vigorous wave diving across the Four Corners region will help
develop a cut-off upper low Monday as it rounds the base of the mean
trof and heads northeast toward the Great Lakes region. The
associated surface low/frontal system will primarily move
into/through central and southeast Illinois Monday night, a slower
trend from previous forecasts.
A persistent 50+ kt southerly low level jet will transport copious
moisture into the area ahead of the system, with pre-frontal
precipitable water values approaching 2 inches. Given the low level
jet anticipated, it is not surprising to see bulk shear values in
the warm sector of the system expected to be in excess of 50 kts as
well, which may be supportive of strong to severe storms during the
late afternoon/evening hours Monday. The main limiting factor
appears to be very modest instability, with peak CAPE values in the
500-1000 j/kg range. Also, if the system slows much more, the loss
of insolation could limit potential instability further. Still,
given the shear expected, SPC has the southeast 2/3 of the forecast
area under a Slight Risk for severe storms Monday afternoon/evening.
Even if severe weather does not materialize, all of the forecast
area can expect a decent rainfall through Monday night (at least
1"), through the pre-frontal convection and/or wrap-around showers.
The slow moving cut-off upper low will support cloudy, unseasonably
cool, and showery conditions going into at least Wednesday night.
The consistently slower ECMWF keeps the upper low around even
longer, lingering the shower threat until Thursday or even longer.
While the ECMWF is pretty much on its own right now, its solution
can not be discounted considering the typically slower than progged
movement of cut-off systems.
Once the upper system finally pushes east of the region toward the
end of the week, a dry period will follow. Would not be surprised to
see dry conditions linger through the weekend, although most models
suggest another system may arrive by late Sunday. However, the
timing/track of this potential system has not been consistent to
this point. This is not surprising considering the timing
uncertainty with the system preceding it. In any event expect
temperatures, aside from tomorrow, to be mostly below normal through
the entire forecast period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014
IFR conditions will be predominant the next 24 hours. Areas from
KPIA-KCMI will see ceilings lowering into MVFR range over the next
hour or two, as lower ceilings steadily move northeast from
Missouri and southwest Illinois. Showers expected to increase from
the south again toward mid/late afternoon. In regards to the
ceilings, latest RAP model projecting a small break toward 07-08Z
around KSPI/KDEC, although this could cause visibilities to drop
and result in a continuation of the IFR conditions. Monday
morning, have introduced some VCTS mention toward mid-late morning
as instability starts to increase in the warm sector.
During the mid to late evening hours, a period of LLWS conditions
are projected to develop as a low level jet ramps up. Currently
looks like KCMI will be impacted the most and longest, with more
of a 3-4 hour period around KBMI/KDEC before the jet shifts east.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Bak
AVIATION...Geelhart
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1249 PM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014
.DISCUSSION...
259 AM CDT
FORECAST DETAILS WILL BE A CHALLENGE THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A STRONG
STORM SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE ACROSS THE PLAINS AND TRACKS ACROSS THE
AREA. GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH SOME OF THE KEY
FEATURES NOW BEING DIRECTLY SAMPLED BY UPPER AIR OBS. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS WEAK UPPER RIDGING OVER THE LOCAL AREA WHICH IS
QUICKLY TRANSLATING TO THE EAST. A LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH IS DRIFTING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS WHILE ANOTHER TROUGH AXIS BETTER
ORGANIZES OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. RIDGING IS FOUND OVER THE
CANADIAN WEST COAST WITH SEVERAL WELL DEFINED WAVES MOVING EASTWARD
AMPLIFYING THE RIDGE. AT THE SURFACE...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE IS
CENTERED OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING
WESTWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA AND MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. LOW
PRESSURE IS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MANITOBA WITH A TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH INTO MIDDAY ALLOWING A STEADIER
SOUTHEAST WIND TO DEVELOP. THE LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
SWINGING ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL PIVOT NORTHEASTWARD WITH A SHORTWAVE
EXPECTED TO BECOME BETTER DEVELOPED ACROSS MISSOURI THIS MORNING
THEN TRACK NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THIS WAVE WILL PASS WITHIN A LARGER AREA OF MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
AND SHOULD TRIGGER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WHICH WILL TRACK
NORTH/NORTHEAST INTO THE EVENING. WILL INCLUDE LOW CHANCE POPS FROM
MID/LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. ANOTHER WAVE MAY LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN ILLINOIS THIS EVENING SOME THERE MAY BE
SOME BETTER ORGANIZATION OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA SO WILL
CARRY HIGHEST CHANCES THERE. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A LULL IN SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT THOUGH SOME SPOTTY ACTIVITY COULD LINGER. EXPECT
TO SEE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH ONLY SOME
SCATTERED CIRRUS BUT CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS
ASCENT AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL
SLOW THE WARMING TREND SO WILL HOLD HIGHS RIGHT AROUND 60 DEGREES.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS A 170KT
UPPER JET CHARGING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. AS A RESULT THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TROUGH
WILL QUICKLY DEEPEN AND DIG INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN PLAINS BY MONDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL LEAD TO SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER OKLAHOMA
WHICH WILL THEN TRACK NORTHWARD INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER
OHIO VALLEYS MONDAY EVENING WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH CLOSES OFF AND
BECOMES CUTOFF FROM THE MAIN UPPER FLOW. GIVEN THE OBSERVED TRENDS
TONIGHT AND GUIDANCE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON THIS EVOLUTION HAVE A
HIGHER DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST GOING INTO TUESDAY THAN
THIS TIME LAST NIGHT. WITH THAT...MONDAY MORNING LOOKS TO START OUT
DRY THOUGH THERE SHOULD BE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND PERHAPS SOME
MIST AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. RAIN AND SOME EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA BY LATE
MORNING THEN ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A
WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPS AND PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. THE LOW
WILL REACH MISSOURI BY EVENING...SLOW DOWN...AND MEANDER EASTWARD
TUESDAY. IT IS SUGGESTED THAT AN UPPER WAVE WILL ROUND THE BASE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH MONDAY EVENING AND HELP TRIGGER A MORE ORGANIZED
BAND OF CONVECTION WHICH COULD TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CWA WHICH IS
ALSO WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE FOUND. OTHERWISE MORE
PERSISTENT RAIN WILL LIKELY OCCUR ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWESTERN CWA IN
CONJUNCTION WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING NORTH OF THE LOW.
IT ALSO LOOKS LIKE A DRY SLOT WILL WORK INTO A GOOD PORTION OF THE
AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING BUT IT IS STILL EARLY TO HAVE MUCH
CONFIDENCE WHERE EXACTLY THIS WILL OCCUR. THE UPPER LOW WILL CLOSE
OFF TUESDAY ALLOWING THE SURFACE LOW TO WEAKEN. LITTLE MOVEMENT IS
EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TUESDAY SHOULD SEE BETTER CHANCES FOR
RAIN THAN WEDNESDAY GIVEN THAT THE FEATURES WILL BE BETTER
ORGANIZED. PROVIDED THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY DOES MAKE IT NORTH OF
THE AREA BY MONDAY EVENING THEN HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE MILDER WITH
READINGS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S NORTH AND AROUND 70 SOUTH.HIGHS FROM
AROUND 60 NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTH ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
IN TERMS OF SEVERE POTENTIAL...MODEST SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WILL
TRY AND BUILD NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE WARM FRONT BY EARLY
MONDAY EVENING. WITH THE SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA INTO MONDAY EVENING IT WILL BE DIFFICULT FOR
ORGANIZED STRONGER/SURFACE BASED CONVECTION TO LIFT AS FAR NORTH AS
THE CWA BY EVENING BUT COULD DO SO DURING THE LATE EVENING OR
OVERNIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE OVER THE AREA BY THAT TIME SO
THERE MAY BE AN INFLUX OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ANYWAYS BUT SEVERE
POTENTIAL WOULD NOT BE FAVORED BY THAT TIME. SO AT THIS POINT ANY
SEVERE THREAT LOOKS TO BE LIMITED TO THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN CWA FROM
ROUGHLY PONTIAC NORTHEAST TO VALPARAISO MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT.
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT. HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE
THE GREATER THREAT AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PUSH 1.7 INCHES.
FORTUNATELY...CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE MOVING SWIFTLY NORTHWARD SO
EXTENDED PERIODS OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS DO NOT LOOK LIKELY. THE MAIN
CONCERN MAY END UP BEING ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CWA WHERE THE
INVERTED TROUGH AXIS WILL SET UP LEADING TO THE LONGEST DURATION OF
RAINFALL...THOUGH THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
LOOKS MINIMAL SO A STEADIER LIGHTER RAIN WOULD BE FAVORED.
THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON HOW
QUICKLY THE UPPER LOW MOVES NORTHEASTWARD BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY. A
SLOWER DEPARTURE WOULD LEAD TO A LONGER PERIOD OF SHOWER POTENTIAL
INTO THURSDAY. THE NEXT QUESTION WILL BE HOW FAR SOUTH THE NEXT
SYSTEM COMING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL TRACK INTO SATURDAY.
PROVIDED THE UPPER LOW DEPARTS BY/AROUND THURSDAY A DRIER PERIOD
LOOKS TO OCCUR SAVE FOR THE POTENTIAL SATURDAY SYSTEM...BUT A LOT
NEEDS TO OCCUR THROUGH MID WEEK FIRST BEFORE HAVING A HIGH DEGREE OF
CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS.
MDB
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH BETTER CHANCES OVERNIGHT
AND MONDAY AFTERNOON.
* CIGS LOWERING TO MVFR THIS EVENING AND POSSIBLY IFR OVERNIGHT.
* VISIBILITY DECREASING IN THE PREDAWN HOURS MONDAY.
BMD
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
THERE WILL BE PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN THE TAF PERIOD WITH
THE BEST CHANCES OCCURRING TONIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. OUT
THE GATE...DRY CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE OVER THE TERMINALS HOWEVER
MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN STEADILY LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE
DAY ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THESE
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SOME IN COVERAGE AS THEY ENCOUNTER
DRY AIR...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIP AT THE TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON OCCURRING AT DPA AND RFD AHEAD OF THE STRONGEST RADAR
RETURNS. MOST MODELS INDICATE THAT PRECIP COVERAGE WILL INCREASE
AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
ACROSS THE REGION. IN ADDITION...CIGS ARE PROGGED TO LOWER THROUGH
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE SURFACE WARM FRONT/FRONTAL
TROUGH APPROACHES AND MVFR APPEARS LIKELY AND THERE IS A DECENT SHOT
FOR A WINDOW OF IFR IN THE PREDAWN HOURS. VSBY MAY ALSO BE REDUCED
AT THIS TIME PER MOS GUIDANCE. A CLOSED UPPER LOW AND ATTENDANT
SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO LIFT FROM OK INTO NRN MO BY MIDDAY
TOMORROW. PRECIPITATION...MAINLY RAIN WITH A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS...WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AGAIN AROUND THIS TIME AND
IS EXPECTED TO LAST WELL BEYOND THE END OF THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD AS
THE LOW VERY SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY EAST TO THE OHIO VALLEY BY AROUND
MIDWEEK.
BMD
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN SHRA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT...AND MEDIUM-HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN SHOWERS STARTING AROUND MID AFTERNOON MONDAY.
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS/TIMING...LOW-MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE IN IFR CIGS/VSBY.
BMD
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
MONDAY NIGHT...PERIODIC IFR LIKELY WITH PREVAILING IFR POSSIBLE.
PERIODS OF RAIN AND TSRA.
TUESDAY...OCNL -SHRA. IFR POSSIBLE...MVFR LIKELY.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF -SHRA AND MVFR CIGS.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...VFR PROBABLE.
KJB
&&
.MARINE...
207 AM CDT
A RATHER SIGNIFICANT AUTUMN SEASON STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
IMPACT THE GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY THROUGH MID WEEK. IT CONTINUES
TO APPEAR THAT AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS EASTERLY FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY THAT A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL ESTABLISH
ITSELF SOMEWHERE ACROSS NORTHERN OR CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN BY MONDAY
EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT WIND DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE LAKE. TO THE NORTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY...NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE UP TO
AROUND 30 KT LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WHILE SOUTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY...WINDS WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH UP TO 25 TO 30 KT.
IT APPEARS THIS BOUNDARY WILL TRY TO WORK ITS WAY SOUTHWARD DOWN
LAKE MICHIGAN ON TUESDAY MORNING...AS THE SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO SET
UP SHOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THIS WOULD RESULT IN
THE STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS WORKING THEIR WAY ALL THE WAY DOWN THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE POSSIBLY BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
OVERALL...HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS A BIT LOW AS TO EXACT TIMINGS OF
THE NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT AT ANY PARTICULAR POINT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
END OF THE LAKE...AS ANY DEVIATIONS IN THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM
COULD RESULT IN SLOWER OR FASTER TIMINGS FOR THIS WIND SHIFT. A
PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE NORTHERLY WINDS
DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE GRADIENT. HOWEVER...THE LACK OF A
MUCH COLDER AIRMASS BEING INTRODUCED ATOP THE WARM LAKE WATERS
SHOULD LIMIT NEAR SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...SOME OF THE
HIGHEST WHEEL HOUSES WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE GALE FORCE WINDS UP TO
40 KT...WELL ABOVE THE WATER SURFACE. AT THIS TIME I WILL CONTINUE
WITH THE MENTION OF OCCASIONAL GALE FORCE GUSTS.
KJB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1246 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1005 AM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014
Earlier clear skies over the northeast CWA have quickly clouded
over during the last couple hours, as band of clouds has been
surging northward. Initial band of showers has been quickly
pushing northeast across the CWA this morning. Latest high-
resolution model runs keep the morning activity fairly scattered,
with some more development toward mid afternoon. Have done some
tweaking of the precipitation chances to reflect these trends.
Little adjustment needed to the other elements, besides blending
in based on latest trends.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014
High pressure ridge axis slipping east and southerly flow dominating
west of the Mississippi as the next 500 mb trof starts to deepen
over the northern Rockies. Another wave moving in from the SW is
finally starting to show some clouds, though considerably weaker
than prev advertised. Even representation on WV sat imagery is not
as substantive as last few model runs. As a result, slowing the
onset of precip chances today and going to a lower chance pop.
Keeping the TS threat further to the SE closer to the track of the
wave itself. ILX remaining more north of the better chances today.
Cloudy and mild with scattered showers. Major issues for the
forecast remain the nature of the next system later tonight and
through Tuesday morning as the GFS finally starts to come around to
a more ECMWF solution with cutting off the low over the Midwest and
stalling, bringing a longer time pd of showers and thunderstorms as
the pops expand into the forecast.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014
Jet diving into the weak trof over the western half of the CONUS
this morning will continue to deepen the long wave pushing into the
Midwest. Weak low pressure over the southern plains moving NE and
getting out ahead of the trof developing into the next storm system
to bring signif chances for thunderstorms and severe weather to the
region. Previously, the ECMWF was alone in cutting off the low.
However, the GFS has picked up the trend as well as the NAM. GFS is
still moving a little quickly for a closed off low and think that
the ECMWF may be a better fit with a slower progression of the cut
off low. As a result of the GFS still working out some details,
timing is a little skewed between the two. Watching the qpf fields
and extrapolating a bit of convective evolution, the better
dynamic, sfc convergence, and actually shear... is shifting to the
south and southwest. Seems that the max heating of the day with the
FROPA and better svr wx parameters are shifting to the
south/southwest. That being said, another max of activity/qpf
passes just on the north side of the upper low as it crosses through
the region. The storm is starting to look like ILX may end up in
the middle of the two activity centers, with a little less in the
way of threat. Enough inconsistency, that is not a
given...especially the timing and track of the system. Prolonging
the precip into Tuesday and Wednesday with the potentially slower
progression. Models generally cool through the forecast, with
southerly flow kicking in enough to warm up Monday a bit ahead of
the advancing frontal system. May see temps into the lower 70s in
the southeast...but the rest of the forecast is more moderate.
Forecast dries out for the end of the week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014
IFR conditions will be predominant the next 24 hours. Areas from
KPIA-KCMI will see ceilings lowering into MVFR range over the next
hour or two, as lower ceilings steadily move northeast from
Missouri and southwest Illinois. Showers expected to increase from
the south again toward mid/late afternoon. In regards to the
ceilings, latest RAP model projecting a small break toward 07-08Z
around KSPI/KDEC, although this could cause visibilities to drop
and result in a continuation of the IFR conditions. Monday
morning, have introduced some VCTS mention toward mid-late morning
as instability starts to increase in the warm sector.
During the mid to late evening hours, a period of LLWS conditions
are projected to develop as a low level jet ramps up. Currently
looks like KCMI will be impacted the most and longest, with more
of a 3-4 hour period around KBMI/KDEC before the jet shifts east.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Geelhart
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
111 PM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD...WITH
MAIN AFTERNOON IMPACTS EXPECTED NORTH OF HIGHWAY 24. EXPECT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A TRACE TO A COUPLE OF HUNDREDTHS AT BEST.
LOWER CLOUDS HAVE PUSHED NORTH FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT AND
HAVE UPDATED SKY COVER TRENDS. MIDDAY TEMP TRENDS INDICATE SOME
DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS NECESSARY OVER ALL BUT THE NORTHEAST PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT HAS SHIFTED EAST AS THE
NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL U.S. A VERY STRONG JET
APPROACHING 180 KTS ON THE RAP ANALYSIS IS PUSHING INTO THE
CANADIAN SOUTHWEST - PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
TROUGHINESS OVER THE PLAINS AND A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW NEAR THE
BLACK HILLS IS HELPING ADVECT STRATUS RAPIDLY NORTH WHICH IS
ALREADY PUSHING INTO THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST PART OF THE CWA. LIGHT
RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRATUS SEEMS TO BE HOLDING FURTHER BACK
IN SOUTHERN MO WHERE SGF`S 00Z SOUNDING MEASURED A PW OVER 1 INCH.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014
MAIN CONCERN TODAY IS THE IMPACT OF CLOUDS ON MAX TEMPS AND LIGHT
PRECIP. MAX TEMPS REFLECT THE RAPID ADVANCE OF CLOUDS WITH
SOUTHERN CWA HIGHS FORECAST LOWER THAN IN THE NORTH WHERE A
LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED. WITH THE LACK OF SUN AND A
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WIND...TODAY WILL FEEL A NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY.
WITH THE STRATUS DECK IN THE AREA AND WEAK 850 MB THERMAL-MOISTURE
ADVECTION HELPED BY SOLAR HEATING...I WOULD EXPECT AREAS OF LIGHT
RAIN OR SPRINKLES TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL NOT BE A
WASHOUT LIKE WHAT THE FORECAST LATER SHOWS...BUT NEITHER WILL IT
BE THE NICE DRY SUNNY DAY WE HAD YESTERDAY.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014
THE MODEL TRENDS OF SLOWING PROGRESS OF THE UPPER LOW CONTINUE
TONIGHT...WITH THE SAME BASIC SPREAD FROM MODEL TO MODEL THAT HAS
EXISTED IN PREVIOUS NIGHTS. THE GFS REMAINS THE FASTEST IN
PROGRESSION EAST WITH THE UPPER LOW...WHILE THE ECMWF AND UKMET
REMAIN THE SLOWEST. OVER ALL THE MODEL HAVE SLOWLY BEEN SHIFTING
TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION...AS THAT MODEL REMAINS BY FAR THE MOST
CONSISTENT.
THAT SAID...MONDAY IS CONSISTENTLY FORECAST BY ALL MODELS TO SEE A
ROBUST SHOT OF MOISTURE RICH WARM ADVECTION DRIVEN RAIN. THIS WILL
BE THE MAIN PRECIPITATION EVENT OF THE ENTIRE SYSTEM. A WIDESPREAD 1
INCH RAIN EVENT IS LIKELY MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT OVER ALL OF
THE CWA...WITH THE NORTHWEST 1/2 OR SO AT RISK FOR 1 TO 1.5 INCHES
IN THAT ROUGHLY 12 HOUR PERIOD. PWAT VALUES ARE NOW SOLIDLY
FORECAST TO REACH THE 1.25 TO 1.60 RANGE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WHICH IS EXTREMELY HIGH FOR MID OCTOBER IN THE UPPER
MIDWEST. A LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION SHOULD PREVENT ANY RUN OFF ISSUES
FROM CROPPING UP...BUT STRATIFORM RAIN RATES OF 0.25 TO 0.50 ARE
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE DURING THE PEAK FORCING MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THE SURFACE LOW WILL OCCLUDE AND CUT OFF AT UPPER LEVELS MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. WITH DEFORMATION ZONE RAINS TAKING PLACE OVER THE
CWA THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WE SHOULD SEE LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE
RAIN FOR A LONG PERIOD. IT CERTAINLY SEEMS THIS DAMP AND RATHER
WINDY WEATHER LOOKS TO BE THE STORY OF THIS WORK WEEK. IMPROVEMENT
SHOULD BEGIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT WEST...AND THURSDAY OVER THE REST OF
THE CWA AS THE WEAKENING UPPER LOW SHIFTS EAST. I HAVE MY DOUBTS
ABOUT CLEARING UNTIL THIS OCCURS...AND HAVE INCREASED SKY COVER
GRIDS FOR THE 3RD NIGHT IN A ROW FOR THE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT PERIOD. ADDITIONAL QPF TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE
0.25 TO 1 INCH...RESULTING IN 3 DAY TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES...AND
SOME POTENTIAL FOR OVER 2 1/2 IN AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE THE HEAVIER
RAIN BANDS. WHILE THIS WILL NO DOUBT DISRUPT HARVEST ACTIVITIES
THIS WEEK...THE STRATIFORM RATES SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY FLOODING THREAT.
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SHOULD RECOVER TO SOMEWHAT WARMER
READINGS IN THE DEEPER MIXED NORTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
LOWER TO MID 60S ARE FORECAST THROUGH A MODEL BLEND FOR HIGHS...WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
ERVIN
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014
18Z TAFS UPDATED TO MOVE UP THE TIMING OF THE MVFR AND EVENTUALLY
IFR/LIFR CIGS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. HAVE TRENDED CIGS TO LIFR FROM
LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING...BASED ON OBS TO THE SOUTH
WHICH CONFIRM MODEL GUIDANCE. LINGERING AFTERNOON LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES
WILL BE AFFECTING MAINLY KCID/KMLI/KDBQ.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RP KINNEY
SYNOPSIS...WOLF
SHORT TERM...WOLF
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...RP KINNEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
215 PM EDT SUN OCT 12 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 215 PM EDT SUN OCT 12 2014
FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS AND SKY COVER TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS...OTHERWISE THE
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1159 AM EDT SUN OCT 12 2014
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ONGOING ACROSS SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY AS A WEAK
MID-LEVEL WAVE MOVES ACROSS APPALACHIANS. THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS SOME
RESIDUAL POP COVERAGE LINGERING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...BEFORE A MORE ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDER MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IDEA IS
ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST 12Z NAM. AS SUCH...HAVE ADJUSTED THE
POPS TOWARD THIS SOLUTION...KEEPING A DRIER PERIOD LONGER ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE RAMPING THINGS UP TOWARDS DUSK. THIS WILL KEEP THE
THUNDER CHANCES MORE CONFINED TO SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME BREAKS IN CLOUD
COVER...HOWEVER MOST OF THE TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING A BIT COOLER
COMPARED TO THE FORECAST AND THE LATEST LAMP GUIDANCE ALSO HAS BEEN
TRENDING COOLER...SO ADJUSTED THE HIGHS DOWN A TOUCH. UPDATES HAVE
BEEN SENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 800 AM EDT SUN OCT 12 2014
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION FOR
TODAY AND TO MAKE SOME ADJUSTS TO THE CURRENT CONDITIONS. THE REST OF
THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM EDT SUN OCT 12 2014
THIS IS A VERY INTERESTING FORECAST FOR TODAY. CURRENTLY THERE IS A
SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHERN ARKANSAS WITH AN FRONT EXTENDING TO ANOTHER
LOW OVER NORTHERN ALABAMA. A FRONT THEN CONTINUES TO THE EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA. THE LOW OVER ARKANSAS IS FORECAST TO MOVE
SLOWLY TO THE NORTH. THE INTERESTING PART IS THAT THE MODELS ARE
HINTING THAT THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO THE NORTH. AS
IT DOES IT WILL FALL APART AND THEN REFORM TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL MAKE IT HARD TO FIGURE OUT WHAT WILL
HAPPEN AS THE FRONT TRANSITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. THE NAM GOES NUTS
TONIGHT SHOWING A STRONG AREA OF LIFT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AT
AROUND 11PM TONIGHT. THIS AREA OF LIFT IS NOT REFLECTED AT 500 HPA.
THE GFS SEEMS TO BE MUCH MORE REASONABLE. AS SUCH...THE FORECAST WILL
BE MUCH MORE STRONGLY INFLUENCED BY THE GFS AND ECMWF. AS THIS SYSTEM
MOVES NORTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...EXPECT TO INITIALLY SEE SOME OVER
RUNNING TYPE OF PRECIPITATION WITH SOME SPRINKLES TURNING TO LIGHT
RAIN. THIS AFTERNOON...WHEN THE AIR IS FINALLY ABLE TO MIX DOWN TO
THE SURFACE...EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL THEN BE IN THE MOIST WARM SECTOR.
THIS WILL ALSO CHANGE THE NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STARTING TO DOMINATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE
ATMOSPHERE IS REALLY MARGINAL FOR ANY SEVERE DEVELOPMENT TODAY. THERE
IS A BIT OF A MIX OF MARGINAL SHEAR AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY. THIS
COMBINATION WILL BE ABLE TO KICK OFF SOME THUNDERSTORMS...WITH SOME
STRONG STORMS POSSIBLY EMBEDDED IN THE MIX...HOWEVER SHOULD STAY
BELOW SEVERE CRITERIA. ONE CONCERN FOR TONIGHT IS THAT THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER IS FORECAST TO BE ABOUT 1.5 INCHES. CONSIDERING
HOW WET THE GROUND ALREADY IS...THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED FLOODING WITH STREAMS...DITCHES AND LOW WATER CROSSINGS
RUNNING FULL OVER AREAS THAT SEE STORMS REPEATEDLY MOVE ACROSS THE
SAME AREA. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
MOVES TO THE NORTH. DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE
MOIST AND UNSTABLE WITH SOME DECENT SHEAR. THE MISSING INGREDIENT IS
THE FORCING WHICH WILL BE TO THE WEST OF THE AREA AS A SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS IS ONE OF THOSE SITUATIONS...WHERE IF
SOME THUNDERSTORMS GET GOING...THE OUTFLOWS WILL THEN PRODUCE MORE
STORMS AND COULD THEN PROPAGATE ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS A POTENTIAL
FOR ONE OR TWO SEVERE STORMS TO FORM. THERE IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY
THAT VERY FEW STORMS FORM.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT SUN OCT 12 2014
THE EXTENDED BEGINS WITH AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE
WITH ALL ATTENTION IN THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED WITH A CLOSED
UPPER LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. UPPER LEVEL
FLOW FEATURES A 100 KNOT JET STREAK PASSING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH AS IT ENTERS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. WITH THIS
GENERAL PROGRESSION IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE GFS AND EURO HAVE
SURPRISINGLY COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE EURO SPEEDING UP
IT/S PROGRESSION OF THE LOW AND THE GFS SLOWING DOWN THE MOVEMENT
IN RECENT MODEL RUNS. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR A BETTER CONSENSUS
BETWEEN THE MODELS.
CLOSER TO THE SURFACE...A DEVELOPING 55 TO 70 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET
WILL SET UP AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. TIMING OF ANY STRONG STORMS OR SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE
MORE TOWARD TUESDAY MORNING MAKING AN UNFAVORABLE SITUATION FOR ANY
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE STORMS AS INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL AT
BEST. IF MODELS SLOW THE FEATURE DOWN A BIT MORE...LEANING TOWARDS
AN EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON ARRIVAL...THIS WILL BE A DIFFERENT STORY.
FOR NOW...ABOVE NORMAL PWATS WITH THIS SYSTEM AND SHOWERS WITH THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A CONCERN
HERE...ESPECIALLY WITH THE RECENT RAINFALL OVER THE WEEKEND. IN
ADDITION..THE STRONG WINDS OVERHEAD AND LIMITED INSTABILITY MAY
BRING SOME STRONGER WINDS TO THE SURFACE. MAY BE DEALING WITH A
SITUATION WITH STRONG SHOWERS RATHER THAN STRONG STORMS. DESPITE
THIS...IT IS WORTH MENTIONING THAT SPC WILL KEEP A 5 PERCENT RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER FOR THIS EVENT. WHILE STILL A BIT UNCLEAR...WINDS
WITH THIS SYSTEM MAY POSE THE NEED FOR HEADLINES CONCERNING
WINDS...PERHAPS EVEN CONCERNS FOR MOUNTAIN WAVES ALONG THE FAR
EASTERN COUNTIES. FOR POPS COLLABORATED WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES AND
WENT ABOVE THE SUPER BLEND MODEL AS THE CONSENSUS IN MODELS ADDED
MORE CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST AND WENT WITH CATEGORICAL.
AFTER THE FRONT PASSES...THE LINGERING LOW CENTER THAT IN PREVIOUS
RUNS WAS SLOW TO EXIT...MOVES THROUGH AND INTO THE SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND REGION BY FRIDAY. THIS IS EMBRACED BY BOTH THE GFS AND THE
EURO. FROM THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIME FRAME...LINGERING LOW
PRESSURE...CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WITH A LACK OF
INSTABILITY...PRECIP WILL BE ONLY SHOWER ACTIVITY. FRIDAY WILL
FEATURE THE LOW FINALLY EXITING AS HIGH PRESSURE AND MORE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES RETURN TO EASTERN KENTUCKY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 215 PM EDT SUN OCT 12 2014
MVFR STRATOCU WILL RAISE UP TO VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF KENTUCKY BETWEEN 23 AND
03Z. THIS CONVECTION WILL BRING CONDITIONS BACK DOWN TO MVFR. A LULL
IN THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR A FEW HOURS LATE TONIGHT...BEFORE
ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY DEVELOPS BETWEEN 06 AND 12Z AND MOVES NORTHEAST
INTO THE AREA. LOWER CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY MIX OUT MONDAY MORNING...WITH
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS OF AROUND 10 KTS...WITH GUSTS IN THE 15 TO 20
KT RANGE ENGAGING THEREAFTER.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
138 PM EDT SUN OCT 12 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN CHANCES RETURN TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT SURGES ACROSS THE
REGION. THE THREAT FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HI-RES MODELS LIKE THE HRRR AND THE RAP ARE STILL TRYING TO
GENERATE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON.
THINK THAT THESE MODELS ARE UNDERESTIMATING THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR
IN PLACE. 12Z PBZ SOUNDING TELLS THIS TALE PRETTY EMPHATICALLY.
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW DROPS REACHING THE GROUND ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST AS SHORTWAVE SKIMS BY TO THE SOUTH...BUT THAT SHOULD BE
IT. STILL DO EXPECT A CLOUD INCREASE LATER IN THE THE DAY THOUGH
AS FLOW TURNS SW ALOFT. LEFT POPS AFTER 00Z ALONE FOR NOW...BUT
MAY HAVE TO SLOW ONSET THERE A BIT AS WELL. TEMPERATURES TWEAKED
ACCORDING TO LAMP NUMBERS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EASTWARD TODAY. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT. THE BOUNDARY WILL PULL WARMER
AIR NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TRICKY FORECAST TONIGHT AS FRONT WILL CLEAR THE AREA DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. NOT MUCH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ALONG OR BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY AND HEIGHTS WILL RISE OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT ALLOWING FOR INCREASED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE...CAUGHT IN THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTH LATE TONIGHT. THIS ENERGY...COMBINING WITH A LOW LEVEL JET...
WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. WILL CONTINUE
WITH INCREASING POPS TO LIKELY OVERNIGHT. WITH THE STRONG FLOW OUT
OF THE SOUTH...TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL BE RISING.
UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BE SHEARED OFF TO THE EAST ON MONDAY...AND
THE AREA WILL BE WELL INTO THE WARM SECTOR. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
HEIGHTS SLOWLY RISE AS LARGE TROUGH DIGS AND DEEPENS OVER THE
CENTRAL US. THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS TO END MONDAY MORNING
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AND TEMPS TO WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.
MONDAY NIGHT LOOKS DRY AND MILD WITH A DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER.
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST BEGINS ON TUESDAY AS MODELS STILL HAVE NOT
COME TO AN AGREEMENT ON LOCATION...TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE
LARGE AND DEEP SYSTEM WHICH WILL BE GETTING WOUND UP OVER THE
CENTRAL US. WITH THE ENTIRE SYSTEM CUTTING OFF...AND THE SURFACE
LOW RAPIDLY DEEPENING...SLOWER PROGRESSION IS GENERALLY BETTER
WITH THESE TYPES OF SYSTEM. HAVE SLOWED THE ONSET OF POPS ON
TUESDAY AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THEY WILL HAVE TO BE HELD
BACK MORE. ENTIRE SYSTEM WILL OCCLUDE LATE TUESDAY. HOW FAST THE
OCCLUDED SURFACE FRONT SPINS AROUND THE SYSTEM WILL DETERMINE IF
THE AREA SEES SHOWERS TUESDAY. FOR CURRENT FORECAST WILL NOT STRAY
TOO FAR FROM PREVIOUS THINKING JUST SLOWING THINGS DOWN A BIT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE OCCLUDED FROM WILL REACH THE AREA SOMETIME TUESDAY NIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE TIMING OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS
FOR WHEN THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS REACH THE AREA. A CONVEYOR OF
MOISTURE WILL BE ESTABLISHING ITSELF WITH THE FRONT WHICH WILL
PULL MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF. BEHIND THE FRONT THE ENTIRE
SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST WEDNESDAY AND
OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE
RISK FOR SHOWERS. ENTIRE SYSTEM WILL EXIT THURSDAY NIGHT...DRYING
OUT THE AREA BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE SOUTH TO NORTH THIS AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT. EXPECTING LOW VFR/BORDERLINE MVFR CIGS TO
DEVELOP WITH CONTINUING SE WINDS. A FEW SCT SHRA ACROSS NORTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA THIS AFTERNOON...THEN A MORE GENERAL LIGHT RAIN CHANCE
WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT. CIGS SHOULD SINK TO MVFR OVERNIGHT AS WELL.
IMPROVEMENTS WILL WAIT UNTIL MOSTLY AFTER 18Z WHEN THE WARM SECTOR
ESTABLISHES ITSELF MORE FIRMLY.
.AVIATION /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS A STRONG
SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
416 PM EDT SUN OCT 12 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EDT SUN OCT 12 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A DEEPENING TROF MOVING
OFF THE ROCKIES INTO THE WRN PLAINS. DOWNSTREAM OF THE TROF...
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW IS TRANSPORTING MOISTURE N UP THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS SHOWS UP NICELY ON VIS SATELLITE
IMAGERY AS A MASS OF CLOUDS QUICKLY SPREADING STEADILY N AT ABOUT
30KT WITH LEADING EDGE NOW INTO SE MN AND SW WI AS OF 19Z. CLOSER TO
HOME...IT`S BEEN A NICE MID OCT DAY THOUGH BREEZY IN SOME AREAS.
ADDED MOISTURE OFF LAKE MI LED TO SCT/BKN CLOUDS FOR A WHILE OVER
THE E. OTHERWISE...THERE`S BEEN ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. TEMPS HAVE RISEN
INTO THE MID 50S TO LWR 60S.
WITH A WEAK TEMP GRADIENT OVER THE WRN LAKES TONIGHT...ISENTROPIC
ASCENT IS LIMITED DESPITE CONTINUED SW FLOW. SOME WEAK DEEP LAYER
FORCING IS NOTED AS A COUPLE OF SUBTLE SHORTWAVES LIFT THRU THE WRN
GREAT LAKES. ALL IN ALL...THERE IS NOT A LOT OF SUPPORT FOR MUCH
PCPN EVEN THOUGH MOISTURE INCREASES SUBSTANTIALLY (PRECIPITABLE
WATER INCREASES FROM 50-60PCT OF NORMAL CURRENTLY TO 140-170PCT OF
NORMAL BY 12Z). UPSTREAM RADAR IMAGERY ONLY SHOWS ISOLD TO SCT
-SHRA/SPRINKLES ADVANCING NNE IN THE MOISTURE PLUME...SO A SPREAD OF
SCHC TO SPOTTY LOW CHC POPS N AND E INTO THE FCST AREA APPEARS
REASONABLE TONIGHT. INCREASING MOISTURE/CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM
FALLING SIGNIFICANTLY TONIGHT. 40S WILL BE THE RULE.
ON MON...SUBTLE SHORTWAVE LIFTING NE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY WILL
PROBABLY SUPPORT A CONTINUED THREAT OF ISOLD -SHRA/SPRINKLES IN THE
MORNING...THEN MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE REST OF THE DAY WILL PROBABLY
END UP DRY UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTN. DURING THE AFTN...STRENGTHENING
OF A JET STREAK FROM MN TO JAMES BAY WILL PLACE UPPER GREAT LAKES
UNDER THE INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE...AND DOWN
BELOW...IT WILL SERVE TO STRENGTHEN LOW/MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS/TIGHTENING OF THE THERMAL GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA.
ALL MODELS SHOW A HEALTHY RIBBON OF FRONTOGENESIS BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE UPPER LAKES LATE
IN THE DAY...BUT MUCH MORE SO MON NIGHT. AS A RESULT...A DEVELOPING
AREA OF MDT TO POSSIBLY HVY RAIN SHOULD BEGIN ORGANIZING/SPREADING
NNE THRU THE MID MISSISSIPPPI VALLEY MON AFTN. LEADING EDGE OF THIS
AREA OF DEVELOPING PCPN MAY BEGIN TO REACH THE WRN AND SRN FCST AREA
VERY LATE IN THE DAY...BUT GIVEN SLOWER MODEL TRENDS IN RECENT
DAYS...WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF PCPN HOLDS OFF UNTIL AFTER 00Z.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EDT SUN OCT 12 2014
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST
WITH WET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THE
HEAVIEST RAIN IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE MISSOURI
VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CLOSES OFF
JUST TO THE WEST OF THE SURFACE LOW MONDAY NIGHT. FAIRLY STRONG
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL SET UP EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE LOW AS
PLENTY OF MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE. THIS WILL ALLOW RAIN TO SPREAD
INTO MUCH OF THE AREA MONDAY EVENING AND LINGER THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH THE BETTER FOCUS BEING OVER THE CENTRAL AND
EAST WHERE THE STRONGER UPGLIDE OCCURS. AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTHWARD
AND BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED OVERNIGHT...A DECENT FGEN BAND IS
PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.P. THIS
WILL FOCUS STRONG QCONV OVER THESE AREAS ALONG WITH THE DEEP LAYER
1000 TO 500MB RH TO LEND SUPPORT TO A STEADY...MODERATE TO
OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA. PWAT VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 1 TO 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA...AGAIN
LENDING SUPPORT TO A DECENT RAINFALL. AS THE LOW WORKS SLOWLY EAST
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH WEDNESDAY EXPECT THE LOW
TO WEAKEN. THE INVERTED TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL LINGER
OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.P. THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME ALONG WITH
WEAK QCONV ALLOWING RAIN SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TIME
PERIOD. DRY AIR WILL BEGIN WORKING INTO THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE
U.P. TUESDAY MORNING ALLOWING SHOWERS TO TAPER OFF A BIT EARLIER
OVER THOSE AREAS.
AN ADDITIONAL CONCERN...ESPECIALLY DURING THE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT TIME PERIOD IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR LARGE WAVES TO DEVELOP ON
THE TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE INVERTED TROUGH. THESE WAVES
WOULD DEVELOP ON GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS....ALLOWING
WAVES TO REACH AROUND 8 FEET. THIS COULD CAUSE MINOR BEACH EROSION
ALONG THE MARQUETTE AND ALGER COUNTY SHORELINES.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...MODEL TRENDS BEGIN TO DIVERGE
ON THE OVERALL TIMING AND POSITION OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
SURFACE LOW SHIFTING TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER PENINSULA.
CURRENTLY...IT APPEARS AS IF MOST OF THE U.P. WILL ONLY SEE LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD AS OVERALL FORCING IS FAIRLY
WEAK AND MOISTURE IS NOT AS ABUNDANT.
FRIDAY THROUGH THE REMAINING EXTENDED...BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S. ALLOWING FOR
INTERMITTENT RAIN SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. PINNING DOWN
SPECIFICS WILL BE A BIT TOUGH AT THIS POINT AS INCREASED RAINFALL
POTENTIAL WILL BE CLOSELY RELATED TO TIMING OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL 500MB TROUGH. AGAIN MODELS VARY SIGNIFICANTLY
ON THE FINER DETAILS AT THIS POINT THEREFORE...WILL STICK CLOSELY TO
MODEL CONSENSUS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. ON SUNDAY...MODELS ARE
TRENDING TOWARD A RIDGE BUILDING IN TO THE AREA...WHICH WOULD BEGIN
TO LEND MORE SUPPORT TO A BIT WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 131 PM EDT SUN OCT 12 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THIS AFTN UNDER A DRY
AIR MASS. EVEN THOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE QUICKLY INCREASING THIS
EVENING UNDER S TO SW FLOW...INITIAL RESULT WILL ONLY BE MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS. LATE TONIGHT AND INTO MON MORNING...CIGS WILL FALL TO
MVFR AT ALL TERMINALS AS LOW LEVELS MOISTEN. IT`S POSSIBLE THAT
UPSLOPE FLOW COULD EVEN LEAD TO IFR CIGS DEVELOPING AT KSAW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EDT SUN OCT 12 2014
SOUTHERLY WINDS AS HIGH AS 15-25KT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
OVER ROUGHLY THE E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. PRES GRADIENT THEN WEAKENS
OVERNIGHT/MON AS A LOW PRES TROF MOVES E INTO THE UPPER LAKES WHILE
LOW PRES ORGANIZES ALONG THE TROF OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS
WILL RESULT IN WINDS DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT AND MON. WINDS WILL BE
UNDER 10KT ACROSS THE LAKE BY MON AFTN. AS THE LOW SLOWLY LIFTS
NE...WINDS WILL BECOME N TO NE MON NIGHT AND WILL INCREASE LATE. TUE
AND TUE NIGHT...EXPECT N TO NE WINDS UP TO 20KT ON WRN LAKE SUPERIOR
AND UP TO 25KT ON ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THE LOW WILL THEN WEAKEN AS IT
DRIFTS NE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WED/THU...ALLOWING WINDS TO
DIMINISH. WINDS SHOULD BE UNDER 10KT BY THU. ANOTHER LOW PRES SYSTEM
TRACKING ACROSS SRN CANADA THU WILL THEN MERGE WITH THE REMNANT
GREAT LAKES LOW ON FRI IN THE VCNTY OF JAMES BAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING W TO NW INTO THE 15-25KT RANGE ON FRI.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
132 PM EDT SUN OCT 12 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SUN OCT 12 2014
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW SHRTWV RDG MOVING
INTO THE WRN GREAT LKS TO THE E OF A DEEPENING UPR TROF IN THE
ROCKIES ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG SHRTWV DIGGING SEWD THRU THE PAC
NW. COMBINATION OF VERY DRY AIRMASS SHOWN ON THE 00Z GRB/MPX
RAOBS...WHERE THE 00Z PWAT WAS ABOUT 0.30 INCH OR 50 PCT OF
NORMAL...AND ACYC SW FLOW ARND SFC HI PRES CENTERED NEAR DETROIT IS
BRINGING ABOUT CLEAR SKIES EARLY THIS MRNG OVER UPR MI. TEMPS HAVE
FALLEN AS LO AS THE 20S AT THE COLD SPOTS OVER THE INTERIOR WHERE
THE WINDS HAVE DECOUPLED...BUT TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT AND A STEADY
DOWNSLOPE SSW WIND NEAR LK SUP HAVE HELD TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 40S
IN THOSE LOCATIONS. LOOKING UPSTREAM...MID/HI CLDS ARE ON THE INCRS
IN THE NRN PLAINS TO THE E OF THE DEEPENING TROF IN THE NRN ROCKIES.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM WL BE HI TEMPS TODAY AND THEN
PCPN CHCS TNGT AS THE SSW FLOW BTWN THE DEPARTING HI TO THE E AND
FALLING MSLP TO THE W AND SW TAPS MOISTER AIR OVER THE SRN CONUS.
TODAY...EXPECT A MOSUNNY DAY WITH DRY ACYC SSW FLOW DOMINATING THE
UPR GREAT LKS ON THE NW FLANK OF SFC HI PRES DRIFTING INTO NEW
ENGLAND LATE IN THE DAY. THE MODELS DO SHOW SOME INCRSG MID LVL MSTR
OVER THE W TOWARD 00Z MON...SO GRIDS WL SHOW MORE CLDS ARRIVING
THERE TOWARD SUNSET. THE 00Z GRB/MPX RAOBS INDICATED DAYTIME MIXING
REACHED TO H85 YDAY...SUPPORTING HI TEMPS REACHING THE LOWER 60S PER
FCST SDNGS AND IN LINE WITH UPSTREAM OBS ON SAT. EXPECT THE HIEST
TEMPS IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LK SUP. THE DAYTIME MIXING WL TAP
H925 WINDS UP TO 25 KTS AND CAUSE SOME GUSTY SFC WINDS.
TNGT...AS STRONG SHRTWV OVER THE PAC NW EARLY THIS MRNG DIGS INTO
THE SRN PLAINS...A DEEP UPR TROF IS FCST TO TAKE SHAPE TNGT IN THE
PLAINS...WITH A 998MB SFC LO FCST OVER OKLAHOME AT 12Z MON. ALTHOUGH
THE SLY SFC-H925 FLOW IS FCST TO SLOWLY WEAKEN UNDER WEAKENING PRES
GRADIENT OVER THE WRN GREAT LKS...MODELS SHOW SSW FLOW ALF E OF THE
DEEPENING TROF WL LIFT THE PWAT UP TO ARND 1 INCH OVER THE SRN CWA
BY 12Z MON. GIVEN THE INCRSD MOISTENING...MANY OF THE MODELS
GENERATE SOME LGT PCPN OVER AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA...MAINLY
AFTER 06Z OVER THE CENTRAL WHERE THERE IS SOME ISENTROPIC ASCENT
SHOWN ON THE 295K SFC /H8-85/. BUT IN ABSENCE OF ANY SGNFT DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC...IN FACT SOME OF THE MODELS SHOW DEEP LYR QVECTOR
DVGC AND SUBSIDENCE SO FAR N OF THE CYCLOGENESIS...OPTED TO GO NO
HIER THAN THE SCHC POPS SHOWN IN THE CURRENT FCST. THE INFLUX OF
MSTR WL LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP FALL DESPITE THE WEAKENING LLVL WINDS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SUN OCT 12 2014
...WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER IN STORE FOR EARLY THIS WEEK...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A DEEP UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE PLAINS AT 12Z MON CLOSING OFF BY TUE EVENING AS IT MOVES
OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A SFC LOW OVER OK AT 12Z SUN MOVES
NE WHILE BECOMING VERTICALLY STACKED BENEATH THE UPPER LOW. A FAIRLY
SHARP AREA OF DEFORMATION AND FRONTOGENETIC CIRCULATION DEVELOP
NEAR THE INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WHICH WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF FORCING
FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE ERN TWO THIRDS OF UPPER MI. THE BEST
MOISTURE ARRIVES LATE ON MON...WITH PWATS UP TO 1.5 INCHES OVER THE
FAR SERN CWA...WHICH IS 225-250 PERCENT OF NORMAL. BECAUSE OF
THIS...HELD OFF ON WIDESPREAD RAIN UNTIL LATE MON. AS IS OFTEN THE
CASE WITH STRONG DEFORMATION/FGEN PRECIP...A SHARP DRY CUTOFF IS
EXPECTED NW OF THE BEST FORCING...WHICH MAY LEAVE PORTIONS OF FAR
NWRN UPPER MI WITH AT LEAST MUCH LESS RAIN MON NIGHT.
GUSTY NORTH WINDS TUE-TUE NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR WAVES OF 7-9 FEET
ALONG THE SHORELINE OF MARQUETTE AND ALGER COUNTIES. GIVEN THE
RELATIVELY HIGH WATER LEVELS COMBINED WITH THE WAVE SETUP...THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MINOR BEACH EROSION IN THESE AREAS.
WITH THE UPPER LOW LINGERING S OF THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST
WED...CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW WILL PERSIST. HOWEVER...VERY DRY AIR WILL
BE LAID OUT OVER THE NWRN CWA...SO ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
CONFINED TO THE SERN CWA.
MODELS EXHIBIT POOR RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY AND MODEL TO MODEL
AGREEMENT AFTER WED WITH THE MERGING OF THE EXISTING SYSTEM AND
ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE REGION. HAVE VERY LOW CONFIDENCE FOR
THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
OVERALL...EXPECT TEMPS NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MID
WEEK...WITH COOLER CONDITIONS MORE LIKELY LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 131 PM EDT SUN OCT 12 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THIS AFTN UNDER A DRY
AIR MASS. EVEN THOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE QUICKLY INCREASING THIS
EVENING UNDER S TO SW FLOW...INITIAL RESULT WILL ONLY BE MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS. LATE TONIGHT AND INTO MON MORNING...CIGS WILL FALL TO
MVFR AT ALL TERMINALS AS LOW LEVELS MOISTEN. IT`S POSSIBLE THAT
UPSLOPE FLOW COULD EVEN LEAD TO IFR CIGS DEVELOPING AT KSAW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SUN OCT 12 2014
GENERALLY QUIET MARINE WEATHER TODAY. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF
10-20 KT WILL PERSIST TODAY. TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
ALONG THE FRONT IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOUTH WINDS TO GRADUALLY
WEAKEN TONIGHT AND MONDAY...BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AND
INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KT LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT WITH WAVES
BUILDING TO 6-9 FEET. THE LOW WEAKENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WED WHILE
MOVING NORTHEAST...ALLOWING THE WINDS TO ALSO WEAKEN TO 10-20 KT.
SOUTH WINDS ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD
FRONT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...TITUS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
234 PM MDT SUN OCT 12 2014
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR MON AND TUE...
LINGERING SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND MOISTURE IN THE NNW FLOW WILL KEEP
SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FORECAST
AREA...MAINLY THIS EVENING. RAP SOUNDINGS SHOWED SOME CAPE AND
STEEP LAPSE RATES OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING WHICH WILL SUPPORT A
CONTINUED CHANCE OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS
IN FOR MON...MODELS SHOWED A SHORTWAVE WITH SOME MOISTURE MOVING
OVER THE SW MOUNTAINS. TIME-HEIGHTS FOR THE MOUNTAINS HAD NO
UPWARD MOTION AND LIMITED MOISTURE...AND MODELS DID NOT GENERATE
ANY QPF SO WILL NOT MENTION ANY PRECIPITATION THERE AT THIS TIME.
THE UPPER RIDGE AND AN ACCOMPANYING DRY AIRMASS WILL SLIDE E
THROUGH TUE NIGHT KEEPING THE REGION DRY.
MODEL MIXING PROFILES SUPPORTED THE GOING TEMPERATURE FORECAST SO
HAVE MADE VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO INHERITED VALUES. LEE TROUGHING
MON NIGHT AND TUE NIGHT WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS TO GAP FLOW AREAS.
AT THIS POINT...GRADIENT DID NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY
HIGHLIGHTS. MON AND TUE WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY OVER CENTRAL AND
WESTERN AREAS DUE TO GOOD MIXING. ARTHUR
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...
WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKING QUITE WARM WITH INCREASED WIND AS PACIFIC
FRONT PUSHES INTO OUR WEST EITHER IN THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING...MODELS REMAIN IN SOME DISAGREEMENT HERE. LOOKS LIKE A
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING DAY WHICH SHOULD BE WARMER THAN GUIDANCE SO
HAVE TWEAKED TEMPS UP A LITTLE MORE. COULD SEE 80F APPROACHED IN
CENTRAL OR EASTERN PARTS. OTHERWISE WE SHOULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD
OF SYNOPTIC ASCENT INTO OUR WEST DUE TO PACIFIC SHORTWAVE BY
AFTERNOON. GIVEN THIS IS PEAK HEATING AND WE SHOULD SEE SOME
DIURNAL INSTABILITY ESPECIALLY AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL...HAVE
EXPANDED SLIGHT POPS TO INCLUDE THE LIVINGSTON TO HARLOWTON AREAS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. FAST-MOVING ENERGY MAY BRING A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS TO OUR FAR NORTH IN THE EVENING...THEN DESCENT SPREADS IN
QUICKLY THROUGH THE NIGHT PUTTING AN END TO ANY PCPN CHANCES. MAIN
IMPACT FROM THIS WAVE WILL BE INCREASED WESTERLY WINDS FROM
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY.
MOSTLY QUIET WEATHER SHOULD DOMINATE OUR REGION THURSDAY THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND...WITH TEMPS STAYING ABOVE NORMAL AND IN THE 60S FOR
HIGHS...AND MAYBE BACK NEAR 70F BY NEXT WEEKEND. ECMWF/GFS SUGGEST
A WEAK PACIFIC SHORTWAVE ON SATURDAY...BUT WITH LITTLE MOISTURE TO
WORK WITH. WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY.
LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A RETURN
TO STRONG RIDGING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS EARLY THE FOLLOWING
WEEK...WITH A PERSISTENT LOW HEIGHT ANOMALY IN THE NORTH PACIFIC.
AT THIS TIME THERE IS NO SIGN OF A PATTERN SHIFT TO COLDER
CONDITIONS BUT WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE TROPICAL
PACIFIC AS IT REMAINS ACTIVE.
JKL
&&
.AVIATION...
SCATTERED LOWER ELEVATION RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON UNDER UNSTABLE NW FLOW ALOFT. LOCAL
MVFR IS POSSIBLE MAINLY NEAR THE FOOTHILLS...AND THE MOUNTAINS
WILL BE FREQUENTLY OBSCURED. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING. VFR WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECT NW-N WIND GUSTS OF 20-30
KTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A DECREASE IN WIND SPEEDS ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND
MONDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS INCLUDING LIVINGSTON. JKL
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 038/064 045/076 050/075 045/062 036/062 043/069 044/067
20/B 00/U 00/B 10/N 00/U 11/B 11/U
LVM 033/064 041/074 046/071 040/058 034/063 039/066 041/064
20/N 00/N 02/W 11/N 11/B 11/B 11/B
HDN 037/066 039/078 045/077 042/065 034/065 039/071 041/069
20/U 00/U 00/B 10/U 00/U 11/B 11/U
MLS 037/065 039/078 045/078 044/063 035/062 036/067 041/066
20/B 00/U 00/U 20/N 00/U 11/B 11/B
4BQ 036/063 039/079 046/078 044/063 034/062 036/067 040/067
20/U 00/U 00/U 00/N 00/U 01/U 11/B
BHK 034/062 036/073 043/076 043/060 031/057 032/061 036/062
20/U 00/U 00/U 10/N 00/U 01/B 11/B
SHR 032/061 036/076 043/079 039/062 030/063 036/069 040/066
20/U 00/U 00/B 00/U 00/U 01/B 11/U
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
245 PM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 154 PM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE TIMING AND EXTENT OF PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
RADAR SHOWING AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA LIFTING TOWARD NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AT 19Z. ALTHOUGH 12Z
MODELS SHOW SOME RAIN MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND MONDAY
THE BETTER CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL LOOKS TO STAY SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE CWA. LATEST RAP AND HRRR ALSO SHOW THIS TREND THROUGH
THE EVENING WITH BETTER FORCING AND INSTABILITY LOCATED TO THE
SOUTH.
HAVE ADJUSTED WEATHER DURING THIS TIME BY REMOVING MODERATE
CATEGORY OF RAIN AND KEPT JUST LIGHT SHOWERS TO REFLECT THIS
LATEST MODEL SOLUTION. SOME ISOLATED THUNDER IS POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST BORDER WHERE SOME INSTABILITY IS
INDICATED THROUGH 06Z. PRIMARY IMPACT WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE
WIND BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. INCREASING
NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA
AFTER 06Z TONIGHT THEN SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA ON
MONDAY. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL STAY JUST
WEST OF THE CWA ON MONDAY SO NO WIND HEADLINES FOR NOW. LATER
SHIFTS WILL REEVALUATE FOR ANY CHANGE TO THAT THINKING.
WINDS WILL BE DECREASING DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY ONCE SYSTEM
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COOL ON MONDAY DUE TO CLOUDS AND RAIN BUT THINGS WARM UP
QUICKLY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE NATION...ALTHOUGH 12Z ECMWF HOLDS ON TO THE
UPPER LOW OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLY LONGER THAN THE NAM OR
GFS WHICH COULD KEEP CLOUDS OVER EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA IF
THIS SOLUTION WORKS OUT.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 154 PM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014
EXTENDED MODELS SHOW SOME DIFFERENCE IN HANDLING OF THE UPPER
FEATURES DURING THE PERIOD...SO SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PART OF
THE FORECAST. PRIMARY TREND AT THIS TIME LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014
A BKN DECK HAS STUBBORNLY REMAINED OVER SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND
SOUTHWEST IOWA THIS MORNING. A LEAST FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS THESE CLOUDS WILL AFFECT OMA. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD
FRONT...CURRENTLY OVER THE PANHANDLE...WORKS THROUGH EASTERN
NEBRASKA INTO IOWA. THE LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS THE FRONT GETTING
TO OFK BY 03Z...OMA BY 08Z AND TO LNK BY 04Z. OVERALL MOISTURE IS
FAIRLY DEEP WITH THIS FRONT...THUS DECIDED TO LOWER CIGS A BIT
FROM THE GOING FORECAST. SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR
IFR CIGS...FOR NOW FEEL THIS IS OVERDONE AND WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST AT THE LOW END OF MVFR. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...THROUGH
THIS EVENING...CAN/T BE RULED OUT GIVEN A SMALL AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY AVAILABLE. CONFIDENCE WASN/T HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN
THIS TAF PACKAGE.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...PEARSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
224 PM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MAIN ISSUES ARE PRECIPITATION ONGOING...
AND STRONG WINDS MONDAY.
THE AS ADVERTISED STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE ON TRACK
FOR RAPID STRENGTHENING AND CYCLOGENISIS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
THE NEXT 18-24 HOURS. INITIAL COLD FRONTAL SURGE IS CURRENTLY ACROSS
WESTERN NEBRASKA...APPROACHING THEDFORD AND NORTH PLATTE. THIS SEEMS
A BIT QUICKER GIVEN THE TENDENCY THE LAST DAY OR SO FOR THE MODELS
TO BE A BIT SLOWER OVERALL WITH DEVELOPING FEATURES. INITIAL ROUND
OF DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION AND MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION HAS
SPARKED A SLOW TO MOVE AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WHICH BEGAN FIRST THING THIS MORNING. COUPLE AUTOMATED WEATHER
STATIONS DID REPORT ABOUT ONE-QUARTER INCH OF RAIN IN PHILLIPS COUNTY
KANSAS...AND THIS HAS BEEN A STEADY EVENT ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVELS
ARE VERY DRY WITH NEAR 40 DEWPOINTS OVER THE NORTHEAST FORECAST
AREA. RELYING ON THE HRRR AND ITS HANDLING...THIS PRECIPITATION
GRADUALLY MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...AND LOSES SOME STEAM AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE DRY AIR. THAT
IS TREND FOLLOWED IN THE FORECAST...ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED STORM
OR TWO.
MAIN PRECIPITATION CHANCE COMES LATER TONIGHT. AS THE COLD FRONT
FIRES UP THE DEEPENING LOW WITH INCREASING BAROCLINICITY...A CLASSIC
DEFORMATION AXIS SETS UP ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE MAIN UPPER
LEVEL LOW. SOME 12Z MODELS /WRF-NAM/ NOW HOLD THAT AXIS FURTHER
NORTHWEST AND IMPLY A STEADY RAIN IS POSSIBLE EVEN IN THE HASTINGS
AREA. OTHER MODELS CONTINUE TO OFFER THE RAIN JUST A BIT FURTHER
SOUTHEAST...BUT SOLIDLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...AND SOUTHEAST
OF A YORK TO RED CLOUD LINE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. THAT IS
WERE THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES HAVE BEEN...AND CONTINUE TO
BE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE...THERE WILL
BE AN EXTREMELY SHARP CUTOFF FROM RAIN TO NO-RAIN PROBABLY SOUTHEAST
OF HASTINGS. IN THE RAIN AREA...ITS A SOLID CHILLY RAIN...BUT WILL
END ABOUT AS ABRUPTLY AS IT CAN AT SOME POINT ON ITS NORTHWEST EDGE.
RAIN AMOUNTS COULD BE DECENT IN THIS BAND...ALTHOUGH ITS HARD TO
SELL OUT GIVEN THE EXACT BAND LOCATION WILL NOT BE KNOW FOR SEVERAL
HOURS. THE RAIN WRAPS UP BY MIDDAY IN THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA...
AND CLEARING SKIES WILL PULL EAST NICELY BY AFTERNOON.
THE OTHER MAIN STORY ON MONDAY IS THE WIND. DEEPENING LOW...GOOD
MIXING...NICE UNI-DIRECTIONAL SHEAR...ALL POINT TO STRONG MOMENTUM
TRANSFER DOWNWARD OF STRONG WINDS. GUST POTENTIAL IN THE 50 MPH IS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE LATE MORNING/MIDDAY TIMFRAME ACROSS
FAR SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS IN THE LATE MORNING
AND MIDDAY AREAS. HOISTED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE DAY MONDAY. IT MAY
NOT BE A SLAM DUNK IN THE NORTHEAST AREAS...AND BEGINNING AND ENDING
TIMES ARE NOT WELL ALIGNED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...BUT CONSENSUS
AMONG US AND SEVERAL KANSAS OFFICES WAS A WIND ADVISORY. ADVISORY
STARTS AT 7 AM AND ENDS AT 7 PM MONDAY FOR ALL AREAS TO MAKE THINGS
EASY.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
STARTING OUT MONDAY NIGHT...THE PATTERN ALOFT WILL BE AMPLIFIED WITH
AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NW...RIDGING OVER THE
ROCKIES...A TROUGH IN THE INTERIOR CONUS ACROSS THE PLAINS GENERALLY
ALONG THE MO RIVER...AND UPPER RIDGING IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. IN A
TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE SFC LOW IN IOWA...NORTH
WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG/GUST FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS DURING THE
EVENING BEFORE DECOUPLING.
THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO EXIT TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY WITH RISING HEIGHTS AND WARMER AIR WORKING ONTO THE PLAINS
AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE ROCKIES REACHES THE HIGH PLAINS. THE
LLVL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL NOT BE AS TIGHT ON TUESDAY HOWEVER
FORECAST SOUNDING INDICATE MIXING TO H85 WITH WINDS AT THE TOP OF
THE LAYER AROUND 25KTS THRU THE MORNING AND AROUND 20KTS IN THE AFTN
SO DO EXPECT SOME BREEZY NORTH WINDS AT TIMES ESPECIALLY FOR THE
FIRST PART OF THE DAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE STILL LOOKING
SEASONAL WITH HIGHS AVERAGING IN THE MID 60S.
BOTH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHTS LOOK TO BE THE COLDEST OF THE
EXTENDED PERIODS. SFC DPS DROP TO THE LOW/MID 30S AND LOW TEMPS IN
THE 30S ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. WIND SPEEDS BE LIGHTER TUESDAY NIGHT VS MONDAY NIGHT
UNDER INFLUENCE OF SURFACE RIDGE AND FROST DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR.
SINCE THE LOWER TEMPS WILL MATERIALIZE IN AREAS WHICH ALREADY
FROZE...WILL NOT INCLUDE FROST MENTION IN GRIDS/HWO ATTM.
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL SEE THE UPPER RIDGE DEAMPLIFY AS IT
MIGRATES ONTO THE PLAINS DUE TO ENERGY TRANSLATING FM THE PACIFIC NW
ACROSS THE US/CANADIAN BORDER. AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...TEMPS WILL MAKE A RUN NEAR OR INTO THE 70S ON WEDNESDAY.
THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTH EARLY THURSDAY...WITH OVERALL
COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT NEGLIGIBLE AND TEMPS GRADUALLY RETURN
CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS. THE NORTHERN CONUS SYSTEM DEEPENS IN
ONTARIO FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WORWEEK WITH FLOW ACROSS THE
PLAINS TRANSITIONING MORE NORTHWESTERLY FOR A TIME. THERE ARE SOME
MODEL DIFFERENCES IN HANDLING THIS TROUGH AS WELL AS THE WESTERN
RIDGE AND DID NOT DEVIATE FROM EXTENDED INIT. FOR THE MOST PART THE
WEEKEND IS LOOKING MAINLY DRY ALTHOUGH MODELS HINT AS SOME LIGHT
PCPN DEVELOPMENT ON SUNDAY BUT THIS IS NOT CLEAR CUT. MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS AND FAIRLY SEASONAL TEMPS STILL LOOK REASONABLE FOR THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014
ACTIVE FORECAST PERIOD FOR GRAND ISLAND AND KEARNEY WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT LATE THIS EVENING AND STRONG
WINDS THEREAFTER. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WE ARE SEE ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MIGRATE SLOWLY NORTHEAST TOWARD KGRI/KEAR. VERY
DRY LOW LEVEL AIR IN PLACE SEEMS TO HAVE LIMITED ITS PROGRESSION
BUT HRRR AND OTHER SHORT TERM MODELS POINT TOWARD THIS AREA OF
VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAKING ACROSS THE KGRI/KEAR AREA. STEADY
STREAM OF LIGHTNING STRIKES SOUTHEAST OF HOLDREGE...KEEPS THE
INCLUDE OF A THUNDERSTORM IN THE VICINITY OF THE AIRPORTS IN THE
TAF. LATE IN THE EVENING...NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE WITH THE
INITIAL FRONT PASSAGE...AND AS A BIG UPPER LEVEL LOW DEEPENS TO
THE SOUTHEAST TOWARD DAWN...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILLS STRENGTHEN AND
GUST TO NEAR 35 KTS BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WIND WILL BE THE MAIN
STORY MONDAY. FORTUNATELY...LACKING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP
CEILINGS HIGH...USUALLY 8-12K...AND VISIBILITIES FROM GOING TOO
LOW.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR NEZ039>041-
046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.
KS...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR KSZ005>007-
017>019.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...NOAA/NWS/MORITZ
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...NOAA/NWS/MORITZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1226 PM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014
MAP ANALYSIS INDICATES UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING EXISTS FROM THE
CENTRAL CONUS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA...AND A TROUGH IS NOTED
DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS. ENHANCED UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW EXTENDS FROM THE PACIFIC INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
CONUS. UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA REMAINS WEAK...ONLY
MAXING OUT AT AROUND 30KTS NEAR 28000FT AGL PER 00Z SOUNDING DATA
FROM KLBF AND KOAX. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS THE
AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AND TROUGH...AS WELL AS ENHANCED UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AHEAD OF THE
NORTHWESTERN CONUS TROUGH. AT THE SURFACE AN AREA LOW BAROMETRIC
PRESSURE EXISTS OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND AS A
RESULT...THE BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND FIELD ACROSS OUR AREA REMAINS
FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST.
GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC ALL SUGGEST THE
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH...CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CONUS...WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES EAST THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS BY 00Z THIS EVENING...AND WILL LIKELY
NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY 12Z MONDAY. IN ADDITION...THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT A CLOSED CIRCULATION WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS NEAR 700MB. AT THE
SURFACE...THE AREA OF LOW BAROMETRIC PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST...ALONG WITH THE UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH...AND ACTUALLY WEAKEN AS A STRONGER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ALL OF THIS
SHOULD ALLOW A WEAK BOUNDARY-LAYER BAROCLINIC ZONE TO CLEAR OUR
AREA THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...WITH A NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY
BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND FIELD EXPECTED ACROSS OUR ENTIRE CWA BY 06Z
TONIGHT.
INCREASING UPPER TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL ADVECTION WILL BE REALIZED
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
ACROSS OUR AREA. IN FACT...QPF FIELDS FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL
GFS...EC AND SREF-MEAN ALL SUGGEST PRECIPITATION COULD BE REALIZED
ACROSS OUR FAR WESTERN CWA AS EARLY AS LATE THIS MORNING...WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THEN INCREASING HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. GIVEN ALL THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH ~20% POPS ACROSS OUR
WESTERN CWA STARTING AT 15Z...BUT QUICKLY RAMPED POPS UP TO 50%
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA HEADING INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL THEN DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE CWA TONIGHT AS THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH AXIS CLEARS THE
AREA AND THERMAL ADVECTION DECREASES. WENT AHEAD AND TAPERED POPS
OFF ACROSS OUR WEST 00-12Z TONIGHT. A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT STORY
COULD UNFOLD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN ONE-QUARTER OF OUR CWA
HOWEVER. A ZONE OF DEFORMATION WILL MORE THAN LIKELY DEVELOP JUST
NORTHWEST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED CIRCULATION NEAR 700MB.
ALTHOUGH THE NAM SUGGESTS A BAND OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION WILL BE
REALIZED JUST SOUTHEAST OF OUR CWA...THE OPERATIONAL GFS...EC AND
SREF-MEAN ALL SUGGEST THIS BAND WILL BE REALIZED AS FAR NORTHWEST
AS OUR SOUTHEASTERN CWA TONIGHT AND AS A RESULT...WENT AHEAD WITH
60-70% POPS ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SOUTHEASTERN ONE-QUARTER OF THE
CWA 00-12Z TONIGHT.
BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE DOES NOT APPEAR IT WILL BE OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE TODAY AS SURFACE DEW POINT READINGS REMAIN IN THE 40S
FOR THE MOST PART. BUT UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES IN THE
VICINITY OF THE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF OCCASIONAL
LIGHTNING PRODUCTION...EVIDENT BY PERIODIC LIGHTNING STRIKES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH
POTENTIAL ENERGY VALUES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED
100-200J/KG...DID GO AHEAD WITH ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION ACROSS
THE ENTIRE CWA FOR TODAY.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ARE MAINLY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY
MONDAY MORNING...BUT EXPECT THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS THAT
LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT FOR MONDAY
MORNING AS WELL. THE WINDS AT 850MB ARE AROUND 50 KNOTS IN THE
MORNING BUT DIMINISH EVEN BY MID DAY WHEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENS. EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
FOR THE PERIOD MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA AS A SURFACE HIGH MOVES THROUGH. WITH
SUNSHINE AND WARM ADVECTION EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP INTO
THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S FOR HIGHS. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DESPITE THIS COLD
FRONT...TEMPERATURES THURSDAY SHOULD REMAIN WARM. A COOLER SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SETTLES INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
KEEPING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014
ACTIVE FORECAST PERIOD FOR GRAND ISLAND AND KEARNEY WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT LATE THIS EVENING AND STRONG
WINDS THEREAFTER. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WE ARE SEE ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MIGRATE SLOWLY NORTHEAST TOWARD KGRI/KEAR. VERY
DRY LOW LEVEL AIR IN PLACE SEEMS TO HAVE LIMITED ITS PROGRESSION
BUT HRRR AND OTHER SHORT TERM MODELS POINT TOWARD THIS AREA OF
VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAKING ACROSS THE KGRI/KEAR AREA. STEADY
STREAM OF LIGHTNING STRIKES SOUTHEAST OF HOLDREGE...KEEPS THE
INCLUDE OF A THUNDERSTORM IN THE VICINITY OF THE AIRPORTS IN THE
TAF. LATE IN THE EVENING...NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE WITH THE
INITIAL FRONT PASSAGE...AND AS A BIG UPPER LEVEL LOW DEEPENS TO
THE SOUTHEAST TOWARD DAWN...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILLS STRENGTHEN AND
GUST TO NEAR 35 KTS BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WIND WILL BE THE MAIN
STORY MONDAY. FORTUNATELY...LACKING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP
CEILINGS HIGH...USUALLY 8-12K...AND VISIBILITIES FROM GOING TOO
LOW.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BRYANT
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...NOAA/NWS/MORITZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
319 PM EDT SUN OCT 12 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW YORK STATE WILL SLIDE EAST OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT. A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF WARMER AND INCREASINGLY
MOIST AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION MONDAY AND LAST THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. THE SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BRING MUCH MILDER WEATHER FOR THE REGION ESPECIALLY BY
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING 70 DEGREES IN
MANY LOCATIONS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION WEDNESDAY
WITH A CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE TEMPERATURES COOL DOWN LATER THIS WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A RARE SIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL NEW
YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...COMPLETELY CLEAR SKIES. EVEN
WITH BRIGHT SUNSHINE...MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES STILL WERE A LITTLE
BELOW NORMAL WITH 50S DOMINATE. THE VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE
LOWER CLOUD SHIELD ACRS SRN OHIO...SW PA AND ACRS VA TO THE
DELMARVA. LATEST RAP AND NAM SHOWS THAT THE 850 MB RH FIELDS
CORRELATE WELL WITH THE NRN EDGE OF THIS CLD SHIELD TO THE S. WITH
A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER NY PROJECTED
TO SLIDE OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST BY 12Z MON...A SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP. THIS SRLY FLOW WILL ADVECT THIS CLD
SHIELD NORTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT AND EVENTUALLY SPREAD ACRS ALL OF C
NY AND NE PA BTWN ABT MIDNIGHT AND 8 AM MON AS PER LATEST RAP 850
MB RH FIELDS. ADDNTLY...WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
BEGIN OVERNIGHT AND LAST THRU MONDAY. BUT THIS OCCURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL
HGHTS RISE INDICATING THAT THE ISENTROPES ARE DESCENDING WITH THE
WAA. THUS SOME OF THE ISEN LIFT WILL BE CANCELLED LATE TONIGHT
THRU MONDAY. HENCE WE DON/T SEE A LOT OF PRECIP. AFTER
COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING WFOS DECIDED ON SLGHT TO CHC POPS
WITH THIS FIRST WAA WAVE THRU MON PM. HENCE INTRODUCE SLGHT CHC TO
CHC POPS BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THRU MONDAY FOR
-SHRA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE REBOUND WITH MAXES REACHING
WELL INTO THE 60S...AND POSSIBLY 70F IN THE UPPER FINGER LAKES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FIRST WAA/ISEN LIFT SURGE PASSES BY MON PM WITH A FEW SHRA. THEN
OVERNIGHT MON TO TUE...ALL 4 SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS INDICATE
INCREASING LL MOISTURE AND A SRLY FLOW AND WHAT LOOKS LIKE
DRIZZLE OR JUST A FEW LIGHT SHRA IN THE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF NE PA
AND SC NY/CATSKILLS. THUS HAVE SLGHT CHC-CHC POPS IN THESE AREAS
AND NO POPS FARTHER N TO THE LAKE ONTARIO PLAIN TO UPPER MOHAWK
VALLEY.
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...SRLY FLOW INCREASES AREA WIDE WITH INCREASING MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTO NY AND PA. THERE ARE UNCERTAINTIES AS TO THE TIMING
OF THE ARRIVAL OF THE MAIN FRNTL BAND OF SHRA WITH THE PROGRESSION
OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW EASTWARD. ALL SYNOPTIC MODELS INDICATE THAT
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW REACHES THE WRN OHIO VALLEY 12Z WED. BUT THE
STRGEST PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ASSCTD LL FLOW AND MOISTURE
TRANSPORT VARIES IN PLACEMENT DEPENDING ON MODEL. THE CMC IS
FASTEST WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE OVER NY AND PA BY 12Z WED. THE
EURO IS THE SLOWEST WITH HARDLY ANY PRECIP OR MOISTURE REACHING
NE PA OR C NY BY 12Z WED. THE GFS AND NAM ARE IN BTWN. SO I HAVE
BROADENED POPS ACRS CWA TUE NGT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTIES
AND LEAVE THEM IN THE SLGHT CHC TO CHC RANGE.
FOR WEDNESDAY...MODELS AGAIN VARY ON HOW QUICKLY THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW MOVES TO THE EAST BUT ALL INDICATE PRECIP OVER NY AND PA SO
HAVE LIKELY POPS...ESP BY WED AFTERNOON. GFS AND NAM INDICATE SOME
INSTABILITY AS WELL AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT ABV THE WARM AND
FAIRLY MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE. SO WE CONTINUE MENTION OF SOME
TSRA FOR WED IN GRIDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
315 PM EDT UPDATE...
FOLLOWED CLOSELY TO WPC GUIDANCE AND MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD CONTINUES TO LOOK
UNSETTLED. THE PORTENT UPPR LVL LOW THAT IS STARTING TO DIG SOUTH
ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE ROCKIES WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTH
AND AMPLIFY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST
AND BECOME CLOSED IN NATURE BY TUESDAY EVENING. THIS LOW WILL BE
THE CULPRIT FOR THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING INTO THE REGION IN ITS WAKE
SATURDAY MORNING RESULTING IN THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THUS KEEP AT LEAST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH
THE WHOLE PERIOD.
TEMPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME WILL BE AT OR ABOVE THE SEASONAL
NORM.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
IS IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER. WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT
TODAY UNDER 6 KNOTS AND MAY BE VARIABLE AT TIMES.
A WARM FRONT WILL START TO APPROACH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL RESULT IN THE INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT CIGS TO REMAIN MOSTLY VFR. THIS
FRONT WILL ALSO BRING THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. SOME
EMBEDDED MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE SHOWERS AND EVEN IFR.
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LACKING ON THE IFR CIGS SO DECIDED TO KEEP OUT
OF TAFS. DO NOT THINK FOG WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AS WINDS ARE FAIRLY
BREEZY RIGHT OFF THE SFC AND TEMPS JUST ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FALL
AS MUCH AS THEY DID LAST NIGHT.
WINDS BEHIND THE WARM FROPA ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY AND
RANGE FROM 6-12 KNOTS ACROSS THE REGION.
OUTLOOK...
MON TO TUE...DEEP SRLY FLOW AHEAD OF CNTRL U.S. TROF...RESULTING
IN PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS DUE TO CIGS/SHRA/BR.
TUE NGT TO THURS...STEADY RAIN...RESULTING IN MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR
CONDITIONS.
FRIDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...KAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
305 PM EDT SUN OCT 12 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW YORK STATE WILL SLIDE EAST OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT. A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF WARMER AND INCREASINGLY
MOIST AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION MONDAY AND LAST THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. THE SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BRING MUCH MILDER WEATHER FOR THE REGION ESPECIALLY BY
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING 70 DEGREES IN
MANY LOCATIONS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION WEDNESDAY
WITH A CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE TEMPERATURES COOL DOWN LATER THIS WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A RARE SIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL NEW
YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...COMPLETELY CLEAR SKIES. EVEN
WITH BRIGHT SUNSHINE...MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES STILL WERE A LITTLE
BELOW NORMAL WITH 50S DOMINATE. THE VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE
LOWER CLOUD SHIELD ACRS SRN OHIO...SW PA AND ACRS VA TO THE
DELMARVA. LATEST RAP AND NAM SHOWS THAT THE 850 MB RH FIELDS
CORRELATE WELL WITH THE NRN EDGE OF THIS CLD SHIELD TO THE S. WITH
A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER NY PROJECTED
TO SLIDE OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST BY 12Z MON...A SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP. THIS SRLY FLOW WILL ADVECT THIS CLD
SHIELD NORTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT AND EVENTUALLY SPREAD ACRS ALL OF C
NY AND NE PA BTWN ABT MIDNIGHT AND 8 AM MON AS PER LATEST RAP 850
MB RH FIELDS. ADDNTLY...WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
BEGIN OVERNIGHT AND LAST THRU MONDAY. BUT THIS OCCURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL
HGHTS RISE INDICATING THAT THE ISENTROPES ARE DESCENDING WITH THE
WAA. THUS SOME OF THE ISEN LIFT WILL BE CANCELLED LATE TONIGHT
THRU MONDAY. HENCE WE DON/T SEE A LOT OF PRECIP. AFTER
COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING WFOS DECIDED ON SLGHT TO CHC POPS
WITH THIS FIRST WAA WAVE THRU MON PM. HENCE INTRODUCE SLGHT CHC TO
CHC POPS BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THRU MONDAY FOR
-SHRA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE REBOUND WITH MAXES REACHING
WELL INTO THE 60S...AND POSSIBLY 70F IN THE UPPER FINGER LAKES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FIRST WAA/ISEN LIFT SURGE PASSES BY MON PM WITH A FEW SHRA. THEN
OVERNIGHT MON TO TUE...ALL 4 SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS INDICATE
INCREASIUNG LL MOISTURE AND A SRLY FLOW AND WHAT LOOKS LIKE
DRIZZLE OR JUST A FEW LIGHT SHRA IN THE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF NE PA
AND SC NY/CATSKILLS. THUS HAVE SLGHT CHC-CHC POPS IN THESE AREAS
AND NO POPS FARTHER N TO THE LAKE ONTARIO PLAIN TO UPPER MOHAWK
VALLEY.
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...SRLY FLOW INCREASES AREA WIDE WITH INCREASING MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTO NY AND PA. THERE ARE UNCERTAINTIES AS TO THE TIMING
OF THE ARRIVAL OF THE MAIN FRNTL BAND OF SHRA WITH THE PROGRESSION
OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW EASTWARD. ALL SYNOPTIC MODELS INDICATE THAT
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW REACHES THE WRN OHIO VALLEY 12Z WED. BUT THE
STRGEST PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ASSCTD LL FLOW AND MOISTURE
TRANSPORT VARIES IN PLACEMENT DEPENDING ON MODEL. THE CMC IS
FASTEST WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE OVER NY AND PA BY 12Z WED. THE
EURO IS THE SLOWEST WITH HARDLY ANY PRECIP OR MOISTURE REACHING
NE PA OR C NY BY 12Z WED. THE GFS AND NAM ARE IN BTWN. SO I HAVE
BROADENED POPS ACRS CWA TUE NGT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTIES
AND LEAVE THEM IN THE SLGHT CHC TO CHC RANGE.
FOR WEDNESDAY...MODELS AGAIN VARY ON HOW QUICKLY THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW MOVES TO THE EAST BUT ALL INDICATE PRECIP OVER NY AND PA SO
HAVE LIKELY POPS...ESP BY WED AFTERNOON. GFS AND NAM INDICATE SOME
INSTABILITY AS WELL AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT ABV THE WARM AND
FAIRLY MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE. SO WE CONTINUE MENTION OF SOME
TSRA FOR WED IN GRIDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
300 PM EDT UPDATE...
FOLLOWED CLOSELY TO WPC GUIDANCE. LOOKS LIKE THE EXTENDED FORECAST
WILL BE A WET ONE. A CLOSED LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WHOLE FORECAST. THE
CHANCE FOR A SOAKING RAIN DURING THIS PERIOD CONTINUES AND WILL
CLOSELY MONITOR THE SITUATION AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES. TEMPS
DURING THIS TIME FRAME WILL BE CLOSE TO THE SEASONAL NORM WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING TO THE UPPR 50S TO 60S EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL INTO THE 40S EACH MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
IS IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER. WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT
TODAY UNDER 6 KNOTS AND MAY BE VARIABLE AT TIMES.
A WARM FRONT WILL START TO APPROACH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL RESULT IN THE INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT CIGS TO REMAIN MOSTLY VFR. THIS
FRONT WILL ALSO BRING THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. SOME
EMBEDDED MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE SHOWERS AND EVEN IFR.
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LACKING ON THE IFR CIGS SO DECIDED TO KEEP OUT
OF TAFS. DO NOT THINK FOG WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AS WINDS ARE FAIRLY
BREEZY RIGHT OFF THE SFC AND TEMPS JUST ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FALL
AS MUCH AS THEY DID LAST NIGHT.
WINDS BEHIND THE WARM FROPA ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY AND
RANGE FROM 6-12 KNOTS ACROSS THE REGION.
OUTLOOK...
MON TO TUE...DEEP SRLY FLOW AHEAD OF CNTRL U.S. TROF...RESULTING
IN PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS DUE TO CIGS/SHRA/BR.
TUE NGT TO THURS...STEADY RAIN...RESULTING IN MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR
CONDITIONS.
FRIDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...KAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1210 PM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014
NO MAJOR UPDATES ARE REQUIRED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE SLOWLY
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE STATE AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE.
FRESHENED UP PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 921 AM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS BEGINNING TO PIVOT INTO WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. THIS FEATURE IS SPARKING ELEVATED SCATTERED/NUMEROUS
RAIN SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHWESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO
CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY AS THE
UPPER TROUGH SWINGS EAST. ONLY UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCREASE
THE CLOUD COVER SOUTH FOR TODAY. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINING
FORECAST ELEMENTS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE
BEEN SENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014
DID ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH CENTRAL TODAY AS SPORADIC LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN
ASSOCIATED WITH THE RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA THROUGH
THE NIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014
THE MAIN IMPACT IN THE SHORT TERM IS RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN ACROSS CENTRAL MONTANA
AND WYOMING. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SOUTHWESTERN
MANITOBA...AND ON DOWN THROUGH THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. THESE FEATURES
WILL PROVIDE AMPLE ASCENT AND FOCUS FOR RAIN SHOWER DEVELOPMENT.
AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW MOVE FURTHER
EAST...RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF SOUTH DAKOTA
AND SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. THE MODELS (00 UTC ECMWF/GFS/NAM) HAVE
THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION CENTERED OVER NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA. HOWEVER...THEY STILL BRING OVER A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN
INTO NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94. THE RAP HAS HAD A GOOD
HANDLE ON THE ONGOING PRECIPITATION ACROSS MONTANA AND HAS
PRECIPITATION CONTINUING TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA AND
ENTERING WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AROUND 6 AM CDT.
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL BE COOLER THAN TODAY...WITH READINGS IN
THE 50S AND LOW 60S. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STEEPENS BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 30 MPH ARE LIKELY.
WINDS SHOULD DIE DOWN AFTER SUNSET AND RAIN SHOULD COME TO AN END
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST SHORTLY THEREAFTER.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY HIGHLIGHT THE
EXTENDED FORECAST.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO PROPAGATE INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. NAEFS 850-700 MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB
INTO THE THE 97TH-99TH PERCENTILES BY WEDNESDAY IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THIS RIDGE. THUS...A MILD DAY TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S IS FORECAST TO BE FOLLOWED BY WIDESPREAD
HIGHS IN THE 70S ON WEDNESDAY. THIS FOLLOWS THE WARMER EDGE OF THE
00 UTC GUIDANCE SUITE WHICH HAS VERIFIED BEST OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS. THEREAFTER...A SHORTWAVE COMING ON SHORE TO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE
THURSDAY...WITH A DEEPENING EASTERN CONUS TROUGH...PLACING THE
NORTHERN PLAINS UNDER CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE
END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS FAVORS A RETURN TO TEMPERATURES NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014
VFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...TM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
646 PM EDT SUN OCT 12 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST AND OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY MONDAY
MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES BY WEDNESDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...ADJUSTED POPS UP A BIT BASED ON HRRR AND NAM/GFS ADVANCE
OF RH AND UVV INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. PRECIP ALREADY
DEVELOPING/MOVING INTO WRN/SRN INDIANA AND KY.
ORIGINAL...MODELS HAVE BEEN A BIT FAST WITH THE PRECIPITATION AS
IT MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL STREAM NORTHEAST
TOWARD THE REGION OVERNIGHT BUT WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME
ENCOUNTERING THE DRY AIR OVER THE REGION AT THIS TIME. SATELLITE
DATA SHOWS CLOUDS MOVING NORTHEAST AT THIS TIME INTO SOUTHWEST
OHIO STRUGGLING TO MAKE ANY HEADWAY. TIMING AS OF NOW WILL BE TO
MOVE AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS INTO THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY THIS EVENING AND TO CLEVELAND AND MANSFIELD
BY 11Z AND TO ERIE AND YOUNGSTOWN BY 14Z. INCREASING CLOUDINESS
WILL TAKE PLACE OVERNIGHT AS WELL.
TEMPERATURES IN THE SREF AND LOCAL MODEL HAVE BEEN DOING WELL SO FAR
AND WILL BE LEANING IN THAT DIRECTION FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE OVERNIGHT AND LOWS WILL NOT BE ANY WHERE
NEAR THE LOWS THIS MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
DEEP DIGGING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS FEATURE WILL REFLECT A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AT THE SURFACE AND TRACK IT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES. THIS IS INDICATIVE OF A TYPICAL FALL PATTERN AS LOWS
TEND TO TRACK IN A SIMILAR FASHION. MANY DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS
IN TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT IT IS GOING
TO RAIN AT SOME POINT BETWEEN MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WE
ACTUALLY SEE A COUPLE SURGES OF DRIER AIR ALTERNATING WITH MOISTURE
SURGES SO THERE COULD BE PERIODS OF NO PRECIPITATION. WILL TRY AND
HIGHLIGHT THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THE PRECIPITATION THREATS THROUGH
THIS PERIOD. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES IN OVER THE REGION ALONG
WITH THE PRE FRONTAL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT...THUNDER IS A
POSSIBILITY AND WILL KEEP AT LEAST A CHANCE OR ISOLATED THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS.
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP WELL AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND IN THE WAKE OF THE HIGH. THIS ALONE WILL HELP TO FORCE
SOME WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION. IF WE DO GET SOME BREAKS OF SUN
TOMORROW AND TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL INDEED BE WELL INTO THE 70S
EACH DAY. WILL STAY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD FOR GUIDANCE MAX
TEMPERATURES. COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE WEDNESDAY WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE LONG TERM AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WOBBLES OVER
THE REGION. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVEMENT WILL LIKELY BE CLOSER IN
TIMING TO THE ECMWF. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY LOOK LIKE
THEY WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS BUT IT WILL ALL HINGE ON THE
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER THAT DEVELOPS UNDER THE COLD CORE OF AIR
ALOFT. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ATTEMPT TO MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION ON SATURDAY BUT ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL LIKELY DIVE INTO
THE GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. THE DIFFERENCE WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM IS
THAT IT WILL ORIGINATE OVER CANADA. THIS WILL MEAN COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH UNTIL 06Z TONIGHT BUT CEILINGS WILL SLOWLY
THICKEN AND LOWER. MVFR CEILINGS WILL ARRIVE NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER
THE SHOWERS MOVE INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT. THE
SHOWERS SHOULD SPREAD FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AFTER 08Z.
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND BECOME GUSTY AROUND
12Z NEAR KERI. ALL LOCATIONS WILL HAVE SOUTHERLY WINDS BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. WESTERN HALF OF THE REGION WILL SEE GUSTS AROUND 20
KNOTS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE IS EAST OF THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AN
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER
THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
ONLY SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND MAY REACH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH
THE WEEK BUT THERE IS GREAT UNCERTAINTY ON THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE
LOW. WINDS WILL LIKELY BE THE STRONGEST ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE LAKE AT SOME POINT
TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS MAY INCREASE ENOUGH TO NEED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY ON TUESDAY UNTIL THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSES. THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO WOBBLE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH WINDS INCREASING AHEAD OF EACH PIECE OF
ENERGY THAT ROTATES AROUND IT.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...TK/LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...MULLEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
330 PM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014
.DISCUSSION...
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE MID STATE
THIS AFTERNOON. THE BULK OF THE CLOUD COVER...HOWEVER...IS LOCATED
ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE A COMPLEX OF SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY
IS ONGOING...GENERALLY SOUTH OF A LEWISBURG THROUGH MANCHESTER
LINE AT 130 PM. THIS ACTIVITY IS IN RESPONSE TO A WARM FRONT THAT
IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED ACROSS NRN AL. ON THE SFC CHARTS DEWPOINTS
HAVE WARMED WELL INTO THE 60S ACROSS OUR AREA. THERE IS A WEAK SFC
BOUNDARY THAT LIFTED NORTHWARD EARLIER TODAY AND IS NOW LOCATED
OVER KY. AT ANY RATE...CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO FIRE ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE NORTHWARD MOVING BOUNDARY. WE SHOULD SEE CONVECTION
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. A
FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG. OTW...MODELS APPEAR TO BE
BIT TOO HIGH WITH THE POPS AGAIN. WILL INCLUDE POPS IN THE LIKELY
RANGE AS HRRR DOES SHOW SOME REDEVELOPMENT TOWARD 12Z.
ON MONDAY...PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE MAIN
STORM SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS STATES BEGINS TO GAIN STRENGTH.
CONSIDERED A WIND ADVISORY BUT EURO AND NAM SOLUTIONS DONT QUITE
SUPPORT THE REQUIRED 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE AND WILL THEREFORE PUNT TO
THE MID SHIFT ON THE POTENTIAL ISSUANCE. FOR HIGH TEMPS...850 MB
TEMPS OF 14C-16C WILL COMBINE WITH SOME REASONABLY STRONG LATE DAY
SUBSIDENCE TO PRODUCE RATHER WARM TEMPERATURES. WILL BE GOING WITH
LOWER TO MID 80S FOR HIGHS TO THE WEST OF THE PLATEAU. NOT A WHOLE
LOT OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. POPS WILL BE
KEPT ON THE LOW SIDE. MAINLY A BREEZY AND HUMID DAY FOR MID OCTOBER.
MONDAY EVENING...MODELS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR A SEVERE WEATHER
EVENT. STRONG PRE FRONTAL FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO HEAD OUR WAY AND
REACH WESTERN AREAS MONDAY EVENING. THE PREFRONTAL ACTIVITY WILL
MOVE SLOWLY WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AND WILL TAP INTO A RATHER STRONG
65-70 KT LLJ. THUS...WIND DAMAGE IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY.
FURTHERMORE...HELICITY VALUES ARE SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED AND SO THE
TORNADIC THREAT EXISTS AS WELL.
IT LOOKS AS THOUGH SOME SEVERE ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
MAIN LINE...AND THIS WILL OCCUR AROUND EARLY EVENING IN OUR WESTERN
MOST COUNTIES. BUT...THE MAIN LINE OF ACTIVITY WILL REACH OUR
WESTERN MOST COUNTIES TOWARD MIDNIGHT....THEN THE NASHVILLE AREA
FROM 3 AM TO 6 AM...THEN THE PLATEAU FROM 6 AM UNTIL 9 AM TUESDAY
MORNING. POPS OF COURSE WILL BE CATEGORICAL AND WILL INCLUDE SEVERE
WEATHER WORDING. ADDITIONALLY...FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN GIVEN THE
MAGNITUDE OF FORCING AND THE RATHER LOW FFG VALUES. NO FLOOD WATCH
WILL BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME HOWEVER AS THE 1 HR FFG GENERALLY
EXCEEDS THE EXPECTED AVERAGE 1HR RAINFALL RATES ALONG THE LINE OF
CONVECTION.
ON TUESDAY...CONDITIONS WILL QUIET DOWN EVEN THOUGH THE MAIN SFC
BOUNDARY DOES NOT REACH THE AREA UNTIL TUES NT. THE REASON FOR THIS
IS BECAUSE THE SFC LOW WILL TRACK TOWARD THE STRONGEST WAA AREA AND
THIS WILL TAKE IT FURTHER NORTH AND THEREBY CREATE SEPARATION FROM
THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH. SO THE DIRECTIONAL FORCING WILL
BE MUCH MUCH WEAKER THAN WITHIN THE PREFRONTAL AREA THAT ROARS
THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT. STILL THOUGH...WILL KEEP SHOWERS(TSTMS
EARLY EAST) GOING IN THE FCST FOR TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY AS
WELL.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FCST...DRIER AIR WILL FINALLY WIN
OUT BY THURSDAY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES INTO THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL AS HIGHER HEIGHT VALUES
QUICKLY MOVE BACK IN BEHIND THE EXITING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 66 84 67 73 / 60 40 100 60
CLARKSVILLE 63 84 63 70 / 50 60 100 50
CROSSVILLE 61 78 64 72 / 70 30 80 90
COLUMBIA 65 84 66 72 / 60 40 100 60
LAWRENCEBURG 64 85 64 70 / 60 40 100 50
WAVERLY 64 84 63 70 / 50 60 100 50
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
21
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1235 PM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014
.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1041 AM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014/
DISCUSSION...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING PLACES A QUASI-
STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER NORTHERN/CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA.
REGIONAL WSR-88D RADAR TRENDS SHOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BEGINNING TO INCREASE ACROSS THE MID SOUTH AS A SUBTLE MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MOVES ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS OF 10 AM CDT...TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE MID SOUTH RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL AND FAR NORTHWEST
TENNESSEE...AND 60S TO LOWER 70S ELSEWHERE. AFTERNOON FORECAST
REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE OVERALL AND UPDATE WAS TO ACCOUNT FOR
CONVECTIVE/TEMPERATURE TRENDS.
UPDATED GRIDS ALREADY SENT.
CJC
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 AM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014/
UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014/
DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...A STATIONARY FRONT IS LOCATED FROM NORTHERN ALABAMA
INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. THERE ARE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG PREVALENT ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE MID SOUTH. THE FOG IS BECOMING DENSE IN MANY
LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY AROUND THE MEMPHIS METRO SO WILL ISSUE A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR EARLY THIS MORNING. TEMPS THIS MORNING
RANGE FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS THE NORTH TO LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS
NORTH MISSISSIPPI.
TODAY...THE FRONT WILL MOVE BACK NORTH THROUGH THE DAY AS A WARM
FRONT AND BY THIS AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL BE BACK INTO THE 70S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA WITH A SOUTHERLY BREEZE AND DEWPOINTS RISING INTO
THE MID 60S. 00Z MODELS AND THE LATEST HRRR ARE INDICATING SOME
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND WEST TENNESSEE
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE AIRMASS DESTABILIZES WITH LIFTED INDEX
VALUES OF -4C AND SBCAPES OF 1200-1500 J/KG. THERE COULD BE A FEW
STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. UPPED POPS A BIT
NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER AND NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS ACTIVITY. THE FRONT WILL TAKE LONGER TO MOVE THROUGH
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS SO TEMPS THERE SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S
OR LOWER 70S WITH LOWER CHANCES OF PRECIP.
TONIGHT...A POTENT UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS OVERNIGHT AND BE LOCATED IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA BY 12Z MON.
MEANWHILE A DEVELOPING SURFACE WILL BE LOCATED IN NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AT THE SAME TIME. ANY ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL PROBABLY DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING. AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES A BELT OF 40-50 KT MID LEVEL FLOW AND AN INCREASING
850 MB LLJ OF 40+ KTS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA. AS A RESULT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD START DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE MS RIVER. THE STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
TRANSPORT MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR NORTHWARD WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S...SBCAPES 500-1000 J/KG AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. SHEAR WILL BE INCREASING WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 40
KTS AFTER 09Z MON. THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY THAT THESE STORMS
COULD BE SEVERE AND POSSIBLY SURFACE BASED. SO THOUGH THE FOCUS IS
ON THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATER ON MONDAY WILL NEED TO WATCH
THIS PERIOD OF TIME FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...SEVERE WEATHER EVENT LOOKING LIKELY
WHICH IS CORROBORATED NICELY BY THE CIPS ANALOG PAGE FROM SLU. THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL PIVOT EAST DURING THE DAY AND MOVE TO THE
NORTHEAST OK/SOUTHWEST MO AREA BY 00Z TUE AND THEN INTO CENTRAL
MISSOURI OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS INTO TO ST
LOUIS BY 12Z TUESDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS
THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THE 00Z MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT.
TYPICAL DISAGREEMENTS IN TIMING EXIST WITH THE GFS A LITTLE FASTER
AND THE NAM/ECMWF A FEW HOURS SLOWER. GENERALLY TOOK A COMPROMISE
APPROACH TO TIMING. MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
NORTH IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM AS DEWPOINTS CLIMB INTO THE UPPER
60S TO AROUND 70F. SURFACE HEATING IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM WILL
HELP TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S WHILE STRONG
HEIGHT FALLS SPREAD THE REGION. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF
6.5-7C WILL BE PRESENT AND SBCAPES WILL CLIMB TO 1500-2000 J/KG.
MEANWHILE THE LLJ WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY UP TO 55 KTS OVER THE
DELTA BY 18Z MONDAY WHILE A 80-90 KT MID LEVEL JET BEGINS TO PUNCH
INTO THE REGION. LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE QUITE ADEQUATE WITH 0-1KM
SHEAR VALUES OF 300 M2/S2...POSSIBLY HIGHER WITH THE SURFACE LOW
TRACKING INTO MISSOURI WHICH WILL CAUSE ADDITIONAL BACKING OF THE
SURFACE WINDS. EXPECT BROKEN LINE SEGMENTS OF STORMS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS ARKANSAS WITH SOME DISCRETE CELLS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE DELTA
REGION IN THE AFTERNOON. THE LINES WILL EVENTUALLY CONGEAL INTO A
QLCS NEAR THE MS RIVER AND PUSH EAST DURING THE EVENING EVENTUALLY
EXITING THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS THOUGH A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IF
DISCRETE CELLS CAN FORM EARLY ON DURING THE EVENT. A FEW TORNADOES
WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THE BOWING SEGMENTS OF THE QLCS AS IT
PUSHES EAST AS WELL. HAIL WOULD BE A SECONDARY THREAT AND MOST
COMMON EARLY ON.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE ECMWF FOR
THIS TIME PERIOD...SURPRISE. AS A RESULT IT LOOKS CLOUDIER AND
COOLER WITH SOME SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER NE SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. TUESDAY WILL BE COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND BIT
WARMER ON WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...UPPER LOW EXITS AND WARMER ZONAL FLOW
TAKES OVER. DRY AND TEMPS REBOUNDING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF
THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...18Z TAFS
CIGS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH...ALTHOUGH
MORE SLOWLY IN EAST ARKANSAS. MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE MVFR CIGS OR
BETTER FOR MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP AGAIN OVERNIGHT...BUT WINDS SHOULD STAY UP LIMITING
THE DEVELOPMENT OF BR/FG. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP VCTS IN THE TAFS FOR NOW...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH THAT COVERAGE WILL BE WIDESPREAD. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER
THAT ALL SITES WILL SEE THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 12 AND 18Z TOMORROW.
ADDED PREVAILING THUNDER AT ALL SITES BEGINNING AT 12Z AT JBR...13Z
AT MEM 14Z AT MKL AND 15Z AT TUP. TEMPORARY IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO
VIS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$