Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 10/11/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LITTLE ROCK AR
1003 PM CDT FRI OCT 10 2014
.UPDATE...
WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAIN CONTINUES OVER A
GOOD PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO SINK SOUTH. AN OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ALONG
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT HAVE HAD A HISTORY OF BECOMING
BRIEFLY SEVERE. A STRAY STRONG TO SEVERE STORM CAN NOT BE RULED
OUT THIS EVENING. WHATS LEFT OF THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
EXPIRED AT 10 PM.
PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN VERY LIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTH AND
PULLING THE WATCH WAS CONSIDERED BRIEFLY. HOWEVER NEW NAM MODEL
AND LATEST HRRR MODEL DOES GENERATE SOME DECENT QPF TONIGHT. WITH
ACTIVITY STILL ONGOING OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA...I DECIDED TO ERR ON
THE SIDE OF CAUTION AND MAINTAIN THE WATCH AND LET IT EXPIRE AT
12Z SATURDAY MORNING. THE HEAVIER RAIN AXIS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND WILL LET THE
OTHER FLASH FLOOD WATCH RIDE AS WELL.
CHANGES THIS EVENING ARE TO TWEAK THE CURRENT FORECAST/GRIDS BASED
ON CURRENT TRENDS AND A PEEK AT THE INCOMING MODELS. ALL UPDATES
OUT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 728 PM CDT FRI OCT 10 2014/
AVIATION...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS COLD
FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE STATE. HEAVY RAIN...IS EXPECTED
ACROSS ALL TAF SITES WITH IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CDT FRI OCT 10 2014/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
HEAVY RAIN OCCURRED TOWARD THE MISSOURI BORDER TODAY. MORE THAN
TWO INCHES OF PRECIPITATION FELL IN PORTIONS OF THE OZARKS. RAIN
WILL BUILD SOUTH WITH A SLOW MOVING FRONT.
AS THE FRONT HEADS INTO THE CENTRAL THIRD OF ARKANSAS THIS
EVENING...THERE COULD BE A FEW SEVERE STORMS. ISOLATED SEVERE
WEATHER WAS ONGOING IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA...WITH A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH POSTED THROUGH THIS EVENING IN THE OUACHITA
MOUNTAINS OF THE WEST.
RAIN WILL BE LIKELY IN CENTRAL/SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. AMOUNTS COULD BE HEAVY...WITH GENERAL HALF
INCH TO INCH AND A HALF TOTALS IN THE FORECAST. LOCAL TOTALS COULD
EXCEED TWO INCHES.
HAVE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH LINGERING IN THE FAR NORTH TONIGHT...WITH
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN CENTRAL/SOUTHERN SECTIONS THROUGH SATURDAY.
AT THIS POINT...WIDESPREAD HIGH WATER PROBLEMS ARE UNLIKELY...WITH
MOST OF THE WATER GOING INTO THE SOIL FOLLOWING A DRY SEPTEMBER.
RAIN WILL TAPER OFF SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
IN THE FORECAST. A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL DRAG A NEW COLD FRONT
INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
PICKING UP AGAIN.
THERE WILL BE TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WITH THE NEW SYSTEM...AND A QUICK
ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN. FLASH FLOODING MAY BECOME MORE OF AN
ISSUE. GIVEN THE DYNAMICS OF THE SYSTEM...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER...MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WHICH WILL LIMIT HEATING/INSTABILITY.
AREAS TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ARE FAVORED IF SEVERE STORMS
DEVELOP...OR WHERE THE MOST HEATING TAKES PLACE BEFORE THE FRONT
ARRIVES.
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
UPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER LAKE MICHIGAN TO BEGIN THE
PERIOD AND THE TRAILING TROUGH WILL BE MOVING EAST OF ARKANSAS.
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER ARKANSAS TUESDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
MOVE TO NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE STATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BE EXITING ARKANSAS TUESDAY
MORNING...AND THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN EASTERN
ARKANSAS THROUGH MID MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH DRY WEATHER AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 54 60 53 70 / 80 80 50 40
CAMDEN AR 65 73 60 76 / 80 80 50 40
HARRISON AR 49 58 50 69 / 50 70 40 30
HOT SPRINGS AR 62 68 56 74 / 80 80 50 30
LITTLE ROCK AR 61 66 56 74 / 80 80 50 40
MONTICELLO AR 65 75 61 80 / 80 80 50 40
MOUNT IDA AR 61 68 56 74 / 80 80 40 30
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 49 58 51 69 / 60 70 40 30
NEWPORT AR 55 62 54 72 / 80 80 60 40
PINE BLUFF AR 63 71 59 76 / 80 80 60 40
RUSSELLVILLE AR 59 63 54 72 / 70 80 40 30
SEARCY AR 58 64 55 72 / 80 80 60 40
STUTTGART AR 61 69 57 75 / 80 80 60 40
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR ARKANSAS-CLARK-
CLEBURNE-CONWAY-FAULKNER-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-
JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LOGAN-LONOKE-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PIKE-POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR BAXTER-BOONE-
FULTON-IZARD-MARION-NEWTON-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE.
&&
$$
56
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
837 PM MDT FRI OCT 10 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 837 PM MDT FRI OCT 10 2014
A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY AS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVES BY. SHOULD SEE ALL SHOWERS DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO. AS HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT PLAINS
CONTINUES TO BE PUSHED EAST AS A LEE TROUGH DIGS SOUTH ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE...CLOUDS ALONG THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS DRIER WEST WINDS DEVELOP. AREAS OF FOG
NEAR THE PALMER DIVIDE AND SOUTH WILL LIKELY ADVECT NORTH INTO THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT...HAVE INCREASED THE AREA OF FOG EXPECTED
OVER THE PLAINS. NOT EXPECTING DENSE FOG AT THIS TIME AS DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS SHOULDN`T GET THAT LOW OVER A LONG PERIOD OF TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT FRI OCT 10 2014
A DRIER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH
SATURDAY. LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER AROUND THE NORTHEAST PLAINS THIS
EVENING WITH JUST A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER LINCOLN COUNTY.
ONCE THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS DRY OUT...THEN COULD ALSO SEE SOME
PATCHY FOG DEVELOP NORTH AND EAST OF DENVER AFTER 10Z. THE
SIMULATED WRF FOG STLT SHOW SOME OF THIS DEVELOPMENT. ON
SATURDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN NORTHWESTERLY. THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY IN THE MOUNTAINS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. THE NORTHEAST
PLAINS SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK TO
NORMAL.|
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT FRI OCT 10 2014
UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT STILL EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY. MINOR
VARIATIONS IN TIMING AND STRENGTH RESULT IN SOME DIFFERENCES IN
THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION ON THE PLAINS. BIGGEST FACTOR APPEARS
TO BE THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE WITH OR AHEAD OF THE
LIFT...AND IT LOOKS LIKE THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE FIGHTING
DOWNSLOPE FLOW ESPECIALLY IN AREAS NORTH OF DENVER. TODAYS MODELS
HAVE A BIT LESS PRECIPITATION THAT EARLIER RUNS...FOR NOW WILL
STICK WITH THE 30-50 PERCENT POPS WE HAD ON THE PLAINS AND LIKELY
POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS FOR A FEW INCHES OF SNOW DURING THE DAY.
SNOW LEVEL SHOULD BE LOWER WITH THIS EVENT...WITH SOME GETTING
INTO THE HIGHER FOOTHILLS AND AND MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. I DID INCREASE
THE WINDS A LITTLE FOR A FEW HOURS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...COULD SEE
GUSTS TO 40 MPH ON THE PLAINS WITH THE FRONT.
STRONG WARMING ALOFT AND DRYING FOR MONDAY MORNING SHOULD BRING
QUICK CLEARING...THOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME CLOUD COVER LATER FROM
THE JET ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE TROUGH. EARLY MORNINGS WILL BE
COOL MONDAY AND TUESDAY...OUR FORECAST IS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
FREEZING ON THE PLAINS BUT THERE COULD BE AREAS OF FROST. THEN A
BIG DRY RIDGE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOULD WARM US BACK INTO
THE 70S...ABOUT AS MUCH AS WE CAN MANAGE GIVEN THE SHRINKING DAYS.
TODAYS ECMWF CAME IN WITH A MUCH DIFFERENT SOLUTION WITH A STRONG
LOW STALLING OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WHICH KEEPS A SHARP RIDGE
OVER THE ROCKIES. OTHER RUNS HAVE HAD A WEAK TROUGH ON THURSDAY
WHICH THE GFS STILL HAS. PRETTY DRY ENVIRONMENT...MODEL CONSENSUS
OF ABOUT 10 DEGREES OF COOLING AND SOME CLOUDS BUT NO POPS STILL
LOOKS REASONABLE AT THIS POINT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 743 PM MDT FRI OCT 10 2014
DRIER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PUSH IN THROUGH SATURDAY AS A
SHORT WAVE RIDGE MOVES OVER CO. DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY CIG/VSBY
RESTRICTIONS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. ONLY ISSUE MAY INVOLVE SOME
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT AROUND 12Z SATURDAY MORNING. THE HRRR AND
THE WRF SIMULATED FOG SATELLITE PRODUCT DOES SHOW SOME FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVER WELD COUNTY BUT IT APPEARS TO STAY NORTH AND EAST
OF KDEN. AS A RESULT...WILL HOLD OFF ON ITS INCLUSION IN THE KDEN
TAF AT THIS TIME. WINDS ARE CURRENTLY TRANSITIONING TO THE
DRAINAGE SSWLY AND SHOULD STAY THROUGH LATE SATURDAY MORNING
WHEN BRIEFLY BACKING TO THE ESE IS EXPECTED.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KRIEDERMAN
SHORT TERM...COOPER
LONG TERM...GIMMESTAD
AVIATION...KRIEDERMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
219 PM MDT THU OCT 9 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM MDT THU OCT 9 2014
NOT MUCH ADJUSTMENT REGARDING THE OVERALL TRACK OF THE STORM
SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WILL OPEN UP AND MOVE
ACROSS SOUTHERN CO TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE STRONGEST QG
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HOWEVER WILL BE OVER SRN
COLORADO. THERE IS A DEEP SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT AT THIS
TIME...WHICH IS NOT ONLY AFFECTING THE PALMER DIVIDE BUT THE
FOOTHILLS OF BOULDER AND LARIMER COUNTIES AS WELL. THE DIFFLUENT
FLOW AT 500 MB IS ALSO AIDING THIS SYSTEM. THE HRRR AS WELL AS THE
RUC KEEP THE SHOWERS GOING THROUGH 00Z IN ZONE 35...THEN THE FOCUS
FOR PCPN WILL BE OVER THE SRN PART OF THE CWA. THERE COULD BE SOME
MINOR ISSUES REGARDING FLOODING IN THE HIGH PARK BURN AREA THIS
AFTN IF THE STRONGER CONVECTION CAN MAINTAIN ITSELF. SO FAR THAT
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE HAPPENING. SHOULD SEE LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF CWA...WEST OF A LINE FROM CHEYENNE, WY TO
AKRON LINE...BUT LIMITED COVERAGE NORTH AND EAST OF THE LINE. THE
PRIMARY FOCUS WILL BE OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE. IN AROUND
DENVER...THE BEST CHC OF RAIN WILL BE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BEFORE THE FOCUS SHIFTS MORE TO THE SOUTH. IN THE
MOUNTAINS...EMBEDDED TSTMS WITH VERY MOIST AMS WILL BENEFIT ZONE
34 THOSE MOST SO WL KEEP THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH 9 AM
FRIDAY MORNING. ON FRIDAY...THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST BY THE AFTN...WITH DRYING FM THE NORTH
AND WEST. THE AMS WILL REMAIN COOL WHICH WILL CAP TSTMS OVER THE
NERN PLAINS...EXCEPT MAYBE ZONES 41...46 AND 47.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM MDT THU OCT 9 2014
...WET AND COOLER FOR THE WEEKEND AND BEGINNING OF THE WEEK WITH
WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS TO FOLLOW...
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY EVENING LEAVING SOME RESIDUAL
RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE REGION AND SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WILL KEEP LIKELY
POPS AND CLOUDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH MOISTURE AND INCREASED
LAPSE RATES STILL ABLE TO PRODUCE SOME SNOW SHOWERS INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN NORMAL
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH HIGHS ONLY GETTING INTO THE UPPER 50S OVER
NE COLORADO. SATURDAY WILL SEE INCREASED UPPER LEVEL NW FLOW BRING
IN WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS BOUNCING BACK INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 70S.
SUNDAY WILL SEE ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVE OVER THE REGION WITH
AN ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT IN NW FLOW ALOFT. QG HAS GOOD VERTICAL
LIFT THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY WITH DECENT OROGRAPHIC UPSLOPE FLOW
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING THAT WILL AID IN ACCUMULATING SNOW
SHOWERS ABOVE 10000FT IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE OVER THE REGION JUST
BEFORE THE AFTERNOON INCREASING NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW ALLOWING
FOR GOOD RAIN CHANCES FOR AREAS OVER THE FRONT RANGE. WET BULB
ZERO HEIGHTS DECREASE TO BELOW 9000 FT ACCORDING TO VARIOUS MODELS
ALONG WITH DECENT LAPSE RATES SO THE HIGHER FOOTHILLS ALONG WITH
THE PALMER DIVIDE COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY
WITH LOWER TEMPS IN THOSE AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY IN THE
LOWER 60S FOR SUNDAY WITH LOWS JUST ABOVE FREEZING IN THE MID 30S.
ON MONDAY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE TO THE SE WITH MOISTURE
LINGERING IN THE MOUNTAINS KEEPING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE DOMINANT NW FLOW ALOFT WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATING THE SYNOPTIC PICTURE BRINGING DRY AND
WARMER WEATHER TO THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 220 PM MDT THU OCT 9 2014
MVFR VSBYS...WITH MVFR/IFR CIG RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. COULD SEE ISOLD T AT CENTENNIAL...BUT WL STICK
WITH PREVAILING LGT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE TAFS.
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE AS THE SYSTEM SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST BY FRIDAY AFTN...BUT LINGERING ILS/MVFR CIGS STILL
EXPECTED IN THE AFTN.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM MDT
FRIDAY FOR COZ034.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...COOPER
LONG TERM...BOWEN
AVIATION...COOPER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
103 AM MDT THU OCT 9 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 101 AM MDT THU OCT 9 2014
QUICK UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MOVING
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS. LATEST HRRR HAS THESE
SPREADING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
ANY PCPN FROM THESE SHOULD BE LIGHT. REST OF FORECAST LOOKS ON
TRACK.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1147 PM MDT WED OCT 8 2014
REINITIALIZED FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS. REST OF
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AT THIS TIME. LW
UPDATE ISSUED AT 833 PM MDT WED OCT 8 2014
FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND
ADJACENT PLAINS ZONES BELOW 10000 FEET. MODELS AND WPC GUIDANCE
CONSISTENT ON WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON THE ORDER OF 1-2"
OVER A 24 HOUR PERIOD BEGINNING AROUND 6 AM THURSDAY. THERE WILL
BE CONVECTION WITH THIS EVENT THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING...
BEFORE TRANSITIONING OVER TO A MORE STRATIFORM EVENT THE REMAINDER
OF THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. NOT SURE IF RAINFALL RATES WILL BE
ENOUGH FOR FLASH FLOODING BUT NOT SURE THAT THEY WON`T EITHER.
WITH A TROPICAL SYSTEM...THERE IS ALWAYS CONCERN. ADD THAT TO THE
BURN SCAR AND URBAN RUNOFF CONCERNS...AND YOU HAVE FLASH FLOOD
CONCERNS. CONSEQUENTLY...IT IS PRUDENT AT THIS TIME TO HOIST A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH AND ALERT FOLKS TO THE POTENTIAL.
ALSO...EXPANDED THE WINTER STORM WATCH TO INCLUDE THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE SAWATCH AND MOSQUITO RANGES IN CENTRAL COLORADO
IN ADDITION TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO...WET
AND PIKES PEAK MOUNTAINS. ADDITIONALLY...ADJUSTED THE WATCH TO
START EARLIER...AT NOON THURSDAY...INSTEAD OF 3 PM. THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS SEEM TO BE IN THE BULLS-EYE FOR THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION...WITH THE HEAVIER STUFF STARTING UP AROUND NOON
NOW INSTEAD OF LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. LW
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM MDT WED OCT 8 2014
...RAIN IS ON THE WAY...
RAIN IS ON THE WAY. THAT MUCH IS A GIVEN...WITH THE REMAINING
CHALLENGES BEING WHEN AND WHERE THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL FALL.
CURRENTLY...REMNANTS OF SIMON ARE MOVING THROUGH AZ. HEAVIEST
CONVECTION IS E OF PHX...WITH SOME LIGHT PRECIP ALREADY MOVING INTO
THE 4 CORNERS REGION. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE TO THE NE
OVERNIGHT...WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIP MOVING INTO THE AREA BY THU
MORNING. IT SHOULD BE ANOTHER MILD NIGHT WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUDS.
MAIN QUESTION TOMORROW IS THE TIMING OF THE MAIN BAND OF PRECIP. IT
APPEARS LIKELY THAT THE HEAVIEST QPF WILL FALL OVER OUR CWA...SE
CO...BUT TIMING IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN. THE 12Z NAM AND GFS BOTH
HAVE WIDESPREAD PRECIP MOVING INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR BY THE
MORNING...WHILE BOTH THE ARW AND NMM WRF HOLD OFF THE HEAVIEST QPF
UNTIL THU EVENING. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE EARLY...ALBEIT NOT
STRONGLY...AND DEEP UPSLOPE SHOULD BE IN PLACE OVER THE PLAINS BY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. EXTRAPOLATING SAT IMAGERY OF THE COLDEST CLOUD
TOPS AND CONVECTION...LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD SEE PRETTY GOOD COVERAGE
BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. HAVE RAISED POPS CONSIDERABLY TO THE LIKELY
RANGE IN A SWATH FROM KALS TO KPUB BY THU AFTERNOON...BUT WILL LEAVE
THE CATEGORICAL POPS TO THE LATER PERIODS.
OTHER QUESTION IS HOW HEAVY TO EXPECT THE PRECIP...AND ATTENDANT
FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL. CAPE AND LAPSE RATES DO NOT LOOK TERRIBLY
HIGH TOMORROW...AND EXTENSIVE CLOUDS/PRECIP WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY.
HEAVIEST CONVECTION WILL BE DYNAMICALLY FORCED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING INTO OUR AREA. SO...NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD OR SVR
STORMS...BUT THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLD HEAVIER CELLS EMBEDDED WITH
THE WIDESPREAD...MORE STRATIFORM...PRECIP. UNFORTUNATELY IT LOOKS
LIKE A HIT OR MISS SITUATION...AND AN UNLUCKY HIT COULD SPELL
PROBLEMS FOR THE BURN SCARS. HOWEVER...IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE
STRONGEST CONVECTION WILL BE SOUTH OF HGWY 50...WHICH WOULD SPARE
WALDO CANYON BUT LEAVE OTHER SCARS SUCH AS E PEAK UNDER THE GUN.
GIVEN THE EXPECTED EXTENSIVE PRECIP AND CLOUDS...EXPECT TEMPS TO
BE HELD DOWN BELOW ADIABATIC MAXES TOMORROW. HAVE DROPPED HIGH TEMPS
BY ABOUT 5 DEGREES TOMORROW FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND EVEN
THAT IS ABOVE THE MOS GUIDANCE FOR KPUB AND KCOS...SO LATER SHIFT
WILL HAVE TO REEVALUATED WHAT COULD BE OPTIMISTIC HIGHS IN THE
60S TOMORROW. AGAIN...IT WILL BE A QUESTION OF HOW FAST THE
WIDESPREAD PRECIP MOVES INTO THE PLAINS. TEMPS WILL BE FALLING
ALOFT THROUGH THE DAY ON THU...AND BY 00Z FRI COULD SEE SOW LEVELS
FALL TO AROUND 10K FT OR SO. A COUPLE INCHES ACCUMULATION WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR PIKES PEAK SUMMIT AND OTHER HIGH MOUNTAIN AREAS BY
00Z...BUT THE POTENTIALLY HEAVY MT SNOW WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THU
NIGHT. EVERYONE SHOULD BE WEATHER AWARE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS
AND KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON WHAT COULD BE A RAPIDLY EVOLVING FORECAST.
ROSE
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM MDT WED OCT 8 2014
...WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
TIMING AND TRACK OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.
EXPECT THE TROUGH TO BE CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
THURSDAY EVENING AND WILL TRACK EASTWARD INTO EASTERN COLORADO BY
FRIDAY MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...NORTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
INCREASE THURSDAY EVENING...WHILE ABUNDANT MOISTURE FROM THE
REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM SIMON MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE
UPPER SYSTEM. ALL THE INGREDIENTS ARE THERE...FOR WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO. LOCATIONS OVER THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO SEE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL THURSDAY NIGHT. AREA BURN
SCARS COULD SEE BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL...AND ANY
FLASH FLOODING WILL DEPEND HIGHLY ON RAINFALL RATES. THERE COULD
BE SOME CONVECTIVE ELEMENT THURSDAY EVENING WHICH COULD ENHANCE
RAINFALL RATES...SO THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. LOW LYING AND
FLOOD PRONE AREAS SHOULD ALSO REMAIN ON ALERT FOR LOCALIZED
FLOODING DUE TO THE RAINFALL. AS FOR SNOW...THIS STORM SYSTEM IS
QUITE WARM DUE TO ITS TROPICAL NATURE. SNOW SHOULD GENERALLY
REMAIN CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND WINTER STORM
WATCHES HAVE BEEN POSTED FOR THE SANGRE DE CRISTO AND WET MOUNTAIN
RANGES...AND PIKES PEAK FOR ELEVATIONS OVER 11 KFT. ACCUMULATIONS
OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. MODELS
IN AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM LIFTING INTO KANSAS FRIDAY
MORNING WITH MOST PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...EXPECT A QUIET DAY ON SATURDAY WITH
BROAD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...WHILE THE REST OF THE
AREA REMAINS DRY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALSO WARM INTO THE 60S
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AFTER ONLY 50S ON FRIDAY.
MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON SUNDAY WITH HOW THE NEXT UPPER SYSTEM
WILL IMPACT THE AREA. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE REMAINED
CONSISTENT WITH THEMSELVES...BUT REMAIN DIFFERENT FROM EACH OTHER.
THE ECMWF DROPS A STRONG TROUGH SOUTH OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
AND ACROSS COLORADO SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY. THE ECMWF IS
STRONGER WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...WITH MORE UPSLOPE FLOW
AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS. THE GFS...WHICH HAS STARTED TO TREND MORE
WITH THE ECMWF...CONTINUES TO BE MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH A SHORTWAVE
SOUTH OUT OF MONTANA AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE GFS
SOLUTIONS HAS BEEN DRIER...LESS WINDY AND COLD THAN THE ECMWF.
FOR NOW...GIVEN THE RECENT GFS TREND TOWARDS THE ECMWF...STARTED
TO RAMP UP POPS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...AND
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE COLDER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. THIS
SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER
THE GREAT BASIN AND SHIFT EAST INTO THE ROCKIES THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. THIS WOULD BRING DRIER CONDITIONS ALONG WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MOZLEY
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM MDT WED OCT 8 2014
WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AS ABUNDANT PACIFIC
MOISTURE AND THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL SYSTEM SIMON MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHERN COLORADO COMBINE WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTH THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH 16Z AS SHOWERS INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM WEST TO EAST.
MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO
PERSIST...ESPECIALLY AT COS AND PUB...AS NORTHEAST TO EAST LOW
LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW INTERACTS WITH THE REMANTS OF SIMON. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE LOWER SLOPES OF THE EASTERN MTS AND IMMEDIATE ADJACENT
PLAINS. THE HIGHER MT PEAKS...AOA 10K FT WILL BE DEALING WITH
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL AS WELL.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
COZ072-074-077>079-081-083>088.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
FOR COZ058-060-063-073-075-080-082.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KT
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...MW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
1044 PM MDT WED OCT 8 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 908 PM MDT WED OCT 8 2014
OVERNIGHT FORECAST GRIDS UPDATED TO REFLECT TRENDS OFFERED BY THE
HRRR AND RAP MODELS. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE (700 MB TEMP DATA
RESEMBLES AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT) AND JET STREAK DYNAMICS HAS
ALLOWED MID LEVEL ALTOSTRATUS CLOUD TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA. DEEPER MOISTURE STILL RESIDES IN ARIZONA WITH SOME
LIGHT PCPN OCCURRING NORTH OF I40...WITH BUT WINSLOW ASOS HAVING
OBSERVED A RAIN SHOWER EARLIER IN THE EVENING. THIS IS TYPICALLY
AN INDICATOR THAT SOME RAIN WILL REACH MONUMENT VALLEY AND THE SAN
JUAN RIVER BASIN SOON. THE HRRR SHOWS LIGHT RAIN REACH MONUMENT
VALLEY BEFORE MIDNIGHT AND THE SWRN COLORADO VALLEYS SHORTLY
THEREAFTER. HOWEVER THIS IS NOT A SOLID RAIN SHIELD...RATHER THE
SHOWERS ARRIVE IN BITS AND PIECES BEFORE SPREADING ACROSS THE SRN
PORTION IN EARNEST ON THURSDAY. LOWERED THE OVERNIGHT RAIN THREAT
ALONG THE I70 CORRIDOR. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK AS THE
ARIZONA UPPER LOW CENTER MOVES TOWARD SW COLORADO.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 258 PM MDT WED OCT 8 2014
PLENTY MOISTURE AND CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE POURING NORTHEAST ACROSS
ARIZONA AND INTO SOUTHEAST UTAH AND SOUTHWEST COLORADO. 700 MB
TEMPS STAY VERY WARM AS THIS MOISTURE MOVES THROUGH SW AND CENTRAL
CO AND THE CO NORTHERN MTS THROUGH THU NIGHT..BELIEVE SNOW ACCUMS
SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 9500 FEET AND HIGHER. CLOUDS AND POPS HAVE
BEEN INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY FOR LATE TONIGHT...THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH THE FOCUS BEING EAST OF A LINE EXTENDING
FROM THE FOUR CORNERS TO EAGLE TO STEAMBOAT SPRINGS. RIGHT NOW THE
PRECIP AMOUNTS OVER AZ HAVE NOT BEEN THAT IMPRESSIVE...SO HAVE
TEMPERED MY PRECIP AMOUNTS TO REPRESENT LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIP
WITH LOCALIZED HEAVIER PRECIP POSSIBLE.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM MDT WED OCT 8 2014
THE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE EAST OF THE DIVIDE BY FRIDAY AS THE
GENERAL FLOW CHANGES TO NORTHWESTERLY. PRONE AREAS IN THIS WIND
REGIME...SUCH AS STEAMBOAT SPRINGS...THE SURROUNDING NORTHCENTRAL
DIVIDE MOUNTAINS AND VAIL PASS... MAY HAVE CONTINUING RAIN
SHOWERS DURING THE DAY. ELSEWHERE WILL BE DRYING OUT FRIDAY AND BY
SATURDAY...NO SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED IN THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA.
WE ARE KEEPING AN EYE ON A POTENTIAL WEATHER MAKER ON
SUNDAY...THOUGH MODEL CONSISTENCIES ARE LEAVING US WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE ON THE CORRECT SOLUTION. THE GFS BRINGS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE SOUTH INTO THE NORTHCENTRAL PART OF COLORADO DURING THE
AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY WITH BRISK AUTUMN AIR BEHIND IT SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. NOT MUCH PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
SOLUTION. HOWEVER... THE EC MODEL BRINGS A MUCH STRONGER SYSTEM
WITH MORE THAN ONE HALF INCH QPFS POSSIBLE AND SNOW LEVEL DOWN TO
7500 FT. IN CHOOSING EITHER SOLUTION...IT SEEMS PROBABLE THAT MANY
AREAS WILL REACH A HARD FREEZE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING ONCE A COLD FRONT BOUNDARY PASSES AND SKIES CLEAR TOWARD
MORNING. THE AMOUNT OF POPS AND QPFS WILL HAVE TO BE TUNED AS
FUTURE MODELS BRING BETTER CONSISTENCY TO THE FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL ON MONDAY BUT REBOUND BACK TO NORMAL
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1042 PM MDT WED OCT 8 2014
WIDESPREAD VFR THROUGH 09Z...THEN LOWERING CEILINGS WILL LEAD TO
AREAS OF MVFR IN THE MOUNTAINS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 AND
POSSIBLY IMPACT TAF SITES ABOVE 7500 FEET. SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP
AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE...BECOMING WIDESPREAD BY 18Z WITH
ISOLATED -TSRA OVER SW COLORADO. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 12K
FEET.
NORTHEAST UTAH AND THE NORTHWEST COLORADO CORNER (OR NORTHWEST OF
A LINE FROM KPUC TO KCAG)...VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
CEILINGS ABOVE THE RIDGES.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...PF
SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...TGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
340 AM EDT THU OCT 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
07Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A PATTERN THAT HAS
DEAMPLIFIED OVER THE CONUS DURING THE PREVIOUS 24 HOURS. NORTHERN
STREAM FLOW STILL ARRIVES OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/BC COASTLINE
AND EVOLVED DOWNSTREAM INTO LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT
LAKES/NORTHEASTERN STATES...HOWEVER THE FLOW FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS
THE DEEP SOUTH HAS BECOME MUCH MORE ZONAL IN NATURE. A RIDGE OF
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO HAS BECOME
MORE ELONGATED AND WILL BE BUILDING OVER TOWARD THE FL PENINSULA
THROUGH TODAY. SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW EXTENDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST GULF
AND SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA SETTING UP A DECENT UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE GRADIENT OVER OUR SOUTHERN ZONES.
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE ALREADY IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHERN FL
PENINSULA WILL BE REINFORCED TODAY BY A NEW AREA OF CONTINENTAL HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH FROM THE OHIO/TN VALLEYS TOWARD THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. THE OVERALL INFLUENCE FOR OUR REGION WILL BE MINIMAL AS WE
REMAIN WITHIN A PRESSURE PATTERN RESULTING IN LIGHT EASTERLY/NE
SYNOPTIC FLOW. WEATHER OUT THERE THIS EARLY MORNING IS QUIET AND DRY
WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
TODAY...
APPEARS WE ARE ENTERING A PERIOD OF RATHER QUIET SENSIBLE WEATHER
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. STACKED RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO TAKE
SHAPE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH A COLUMN SLOWLY EVOLVING TOWARD ONE
MORE AND MORE HOSTILE TOWARD DEEP CONVECTION. WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF SYNOPTIC FORCING TO ENHANCE THE LIFT...AND ONLY MARGINAL MOISTURE
PROFILES THROUGH THE COLUMN...IT WOULD APPEAR ANY LATE AFTERNOON
CONVECTION WILL BE VERY ISOLATED IN NATURE. GFS SHOWS WINDS IN THE
TOP HALF OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER BETWEEN 10-15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.
THESE SPEEDS ARE GENERALLY ENOUGH TO CERTAINLY SLOW THE DEVELOPMENT
OF ANY DEFINED SEA-BREEZE...OR AT LEAST HOLD THE MAIN FOCUS ZONE
JUST OFF THE COAST. ALL IN ALL...TODAY LOOKS DRY. LOCAL AND NATIONAL
HIRES CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS (WHICH TEND TO BE BIASED AGGRESSIVE
WITH CONVECTION) ARE EVEN STRUGGLING TO PRODUCE ANYTHING BUT
ISOLATED SHALLOWS CONVECTIVE TOWERS. IF A LATER DAY SHOWER WAS TO
POP UP...THE MOST LOGICAL LOCATION WOULD BE DOWN TOWARD
CHARLOTTE/LEE COUNTIES AND ADDED IN A SLIGHT CHANCE 20% POP FOR
THESE ZONES BETWEEN 20-00Z.
09/00Z KTBW SOUNDING SHOWS DIURNAL MIXING ON WEDNESDAY UP TO AROUND
850MB OR SO. A SIMILAR SYNOPTIC PATTERN...WITH PERHAPS SLIGHTLY MORE
EFFICIENT MIXING TODAY...AND 850MB TEMPS AROUND 16Z TRANSLATES TO
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90.
TONIGHT...
MORE QUIET WEATHER. ISOLATED SHOWERS (IF ANY) SHOULD BE GONE BY 0200
UTC WITH A DRY AND SEASONABLE OVERNIGHT. SLIGHTLY STRONGER
SUPPRESSION WITH THE SLOWLY EVOLVING UPPER RIDGE MAY RESULT IN SOME
PATCHY FOG...HOWEVER BETTER CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT FOG WILL EXIST
TO THE NORTH OF LEVY/SUMTER COUNTY WHERE THE GRADIENT IN PROXIMITY
TO THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE WEAKER. LOW TEMPERATURES BY DAWN
FRIDAY MORNING SHOULD RANGE FROM THE 60S NORTH OF I-4...TO THE
MIDDLE 60S AND LOWER 70S FURTHER SOUTH.
FRIDAY...
STACKED RIDGING IS IN PLACE WITH X-SECTION/TIME HEIGHT ANALYSIS FROM
ALL GUIDANCE (NORTH TO SOUTH) SHOWING A VERY DRY COLUMN ABOVE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. WILL NOT HAVE ANY RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST GIVEN
THE UNFAVORABLE SYNOPTICS...UNFAVORABLE MOISTURE PROFILES...AND
GENERAL LACK OF ANY TERRESTRIAL SEA-BREEZE FOCUS. THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE JUST ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A SCT/FLAT/SHALLOW
CUMULUS FIELD DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER EVEN
THIS CUMULUS FIELDS WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE INTO THE LATER AFTERNOON
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXES UP ABOVE 850MB AND ERODES THE LAYER OF
AVAILABLE MOISTURE SUPPORTING THE CU.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THURSDAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS
WITHIN A DEGREE OR 2 EITHER SIDE OF 90.
&&
.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)...
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS
MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING REMAINS IN
PLACE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...FOLLOWED BY A RATHER
SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN WARM AND MOSTLY DRY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
90 EACH DAY. WITH THE RIDGE PULLING AWAY LATE SUNDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE
ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL RETURN FOR AT LEAST SOME CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND STORMS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TAMPA BAY AREA.
A POTENT SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA AND INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS BY SUNDAY...CARVING OUT A DEEP TROUGH FROM THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO TEXAS BY MONDAY. GLOBAL MODELS NOW HANDLE THIS
TROUGH SIMILARLY THROUGH THE THURSDAY...LENDING MUCH HIGHER
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST. THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BRING STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS TO A LARGE AREA OF THE COUNTRY FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
MAY BE DEEP ENOUGH TO BRING STRONG STORMS AS FAR SOUTH AS THE NATURE
COAST LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...BUT THIS IS STILL SIX DAYS OUT AND TIMING AND STRENGTH
ARE DEFINITELY NOT YET WRITTEN IN STONE. WE WILL HIGHLIGHT THE
POSSIBILITY IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK THIS MORNING.
IF YOU ARE A FAN OF COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER...IT LOOKS LIKE THE
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DYNAMIC SYSTEM SHOULD PUSH THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF SHOT OF MORE
COMFORTABLE WEATHER TO END THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING.
ISOLATED PATCHES OF MVFR GROUND FOG ARE POSSIBLE TOWARD
DAWN...ESPECIALLY FOR KLAL AND KPGD...BUT WILL LIFT QUICKLY WITH
SUNRISE IF IT OCCURS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH MAINLY NE/E WINDS AND A FEW-SCT
SHALLOW CU FIELD DEVELOPING. SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED LATE
AFTERNOON SHOWER FOR KFMY/KRSW...HOWEVER PROB OF OCCURRENCE IS LOW
ENOUGH TO EXCLUDE MENTION WITH CURRENT TAF PACKAGE.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST
WATERS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS HIGH POSITIONS WILL RESULT
IN A GENERAL EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF.
WINDS MAY BRIEFLY APPROACH CAUTIONARY LEVELS TONIGHT FROM TARPON
SPRINGS SOUTHWARD...BUT THEREAFTER...DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY HEADLINE
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MARINE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE
CRITICAL LEVELS AND ERC VALUES REMAIN LOW ACROSS THE REGION.
PATCHY GROUND FOG IS POSSIBLE FOR THE USUALLY FOG PRONE AREAS EACH
OF THE NEXT SEVERAL NIGHT...HOWEVER NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD OR
DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 91 72 90 72 / 10 0 0 10
FMY 92 72 90 71 / 20 10 0 10
GIF 90 70 90 68 / 10 0 0 0
SRQ 92 71 91 72 / 10 10 0 10
BKV 92 65 91 64 / 10 0 0 10
SPG 90 76 90 76 / 10 0 0 10
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/MARINE/AVIATION/FIRE WX...MROCZKA
LONG TERM...JILLSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
1051 PM EDT FRI OCT 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE INTO SATURDAY AS
A COLD FRONT DEVELOPS NORTH OF THE REGION. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL SLIP SOUTH ACROSS THE MIDLANDS LATE SATURDAY. COOL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
NUMEROUS SHOWERS. COOL TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW FOR THE END OF
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AFTERNOON ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING AND THE RADAR IS SHOWING ONLY SOME LINGERING STORMS JUST
SOUTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.
NEARLY ZONAL WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF
THE COUNTRY WITH A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO NOSING INTO
THE GULF COAST STATES. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL
TEXAS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO EASTERN WEST
VIRGINIA.
AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINKS SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT THE POSSIBILITY
OF NOCTURNAL PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME FOCUSED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AND WESTERN MIDLANDS...THOUGH MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH PWAT VALUES
ONLY AROUND 1.3 INCHES. HIGH RESOLUTION HRRR DOES NOT INDICATE ANY
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION OVERNIGHT BUT WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD ON TO
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS WITH
FAVORABLE CORFIDI VECTORS AND UPSTREAM CONVECTION EXPECTED TO PUSH
EASTWARD.
SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
SOME HIGH CLOUDS IN THE NORTHWEST MIDLANDS BUT SHOULD INCREASE
LATER TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...SOME POSSIBLE STRATUS OR PATCHY FOG TOWARD
MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE MIDLANDS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT AND STALL NEAR OR JUST SOUTH
OF THE CSRA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL RIDGE
INTO THE CAROLINAS RESULTING IN A SHALLOW WEDGE/COLD AIR DAMMING
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
MOST OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR THE FRONT ON SATURDAY...SO
KEPT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MIDLANDS. GIVEN
WEST-SOUTHWEST 850MB FLOW...TEMPERATURES WILL BE STILL BE WARM ON
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S NORTH TO NEAR 90
SOUTH. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
WITH SHALLOW WEDGE/COLD AIR DAMMING ON SUNDAY SHOULD SEE COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN. COULD SEE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CSRA CLOSERS TO THE FRONT. RANGED HIGH
TEMPERATURES FROM THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO MID 80S SOUTH. OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RIDGE BUILDS NEAR THE ATLANTIC COAST AND A DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS CAUSING AN AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN. THE
GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO CONVERGE.
CHALLENGING FORECAST WITH SHALLOW WEDGE FROM SUNDAY ERODING
MONDAY AS LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS TO SOUTHEAST AS SURFACE RIDGE TO
THE NORTH MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. UPPER RIDGE BUILDING
OFF CAROLINA COAST IN RESPONSE TO DEEP TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
PLAINS. A STRONG COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS MIDWEST UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST. CONFIDENCE
HIGH ENOUGH FOR LIKELY POPS TUESDAY BASED ON GFS ENSEMBLES.
MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT SHOULD BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
SUGGEST SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. DRY REST OF PERIOD BEHIND
FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BEHIND FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH
SCATTERED CLOUDS. MODELS SUGGEST SOME STRATUS OR PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WILL DEPEND ON STRENGTH
OF LOW-LEVEL JET THAT NAM BUFKIT IS INDICATING WILL DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT. WILL GO WITH MVFR IN TERMINALS TOWARD MORNING...BUT
THAT MAY BE A LITTLE PESSIMISTIC. WINDS LIGHT SOUTHWEST.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS IN VISIBILITY DUE TO
MORNING FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
942 PM EDT FRI OCT 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE INTO SATURDAY AS
A COLD FRONT DEVELOPS NORTH OF THE REGION. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL SLIP SOUTH ACROSS THE MIDLANDS LATE SATURDAY. COOL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
NUMEROUS SHOWERS. COOL TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW FOR THE END OF
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
AFTERNOON ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING AND THE RADAR IS SHOWING ONLY SOME LINGERING STORMS JUST
SOUTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.
NEARLY ZONAL WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF
THE COUNTRY WITH A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO NOSING INTO
THE GULF COAST STATES. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL
TEXAS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO EASTERN WEST
VIRGINIA.
AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINKS SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT THE POSSIBILITY
OF NOCTURNAL PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME FOCUSED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AND WESTERN MIDLANDS...THOUGH MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH PWAT VALUES
ONLY AROUND 1.3 INCHES. HIGH RESOLUTION HRRR DOES NOT INDICATE ANY
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION OVERNIGHT BUT WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD ON TO
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS WITH
FAVORABLE CORFIDI VECTORS AND UPSTREAM CONVECTION EXPECTED TO PUSH
EASTWARD.
SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
SOME HIGH CLOUDS IN THE NORTHWEST MIDLANDS BUT SHOULD INCREASE
LATER TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...SOME POSSIBLE STRATUS OR PATCHY FOG TOWARD
MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE MIDLANDS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT AND STALL NEAR OR JUST SOUTH
OF THE CSRA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL RIDGE
INTO THE CAROLINAS RESULTING IN A SHALLOW WEDGE/COLD AIR DAMMING
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
MOST OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR THE FRONT ON SATURDAY...SO
KEPT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MIDLANDS. GIVEN
WEST-SOUTHWEST 850MB FLOW...TEMPERATURES WILL BE STILL BE WARM ON
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S NORTH TO NEAR 90
SOUTH. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
WITH SHALLOW WEDGE/COLD AIR DAMMING ON SUNDAY SHOULD SEE COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN. COULD SEE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CSRA CLOSERS TO THE FRONT. RANGED HIGH
TEMPERATURES FROM THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO MID 80S SOUTH. OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RIDGE BUILDS NEAR THE ATLANTIC COAST AND A DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS CAUSING AN AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN. THE
GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO CONVERGE.
CHALLENGING FORECAST WITH SHALLOW WEDGE FROM SUNDAY ERODING
MONDAY AS LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS TO SOUTHEAST AS SURFACE RIDGE TO
THE NORTH MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. UPPER RIDGE BUILDING
OFF CAROLINA COAST IN RESPONSE TO DEEP TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
PLAINS. A STRONG COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS MIDWEST UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST. CONFIDENCE
HIGH ENOUGH FOR LIKELY POPS TUESDAY BASED ON GFS ENSEMBLES.
MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT SHOULD BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
SUGGEST SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. DRY REST OF PERIOD BEHIND
FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BEHIND FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING WITH SCATTERED
CLOUDS. MODELS SUGGEST SOME STRATUS OR PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY...THIS IS SUPPORTED BY SREF. WILL GO
WITH MVFR IN TERMINALS TOWARD MORNING. WINDS LIGHT SOUTHWEST.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS IN VISIBILITY DUE TO
MORNING FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
737 PM EDT FRI OCT 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE INTO SATURDAY AS
A COLD FRONT DEVELOPS NORTH OF THE REGION. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL SLIP SOUTH ACROSS THE MIDLANDS LATE SATURDAY. COOL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
NUMEROUS SHOWERS. COOL TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW FOR THE END OF
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
NEARLY ZONAL WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF
THE COUNTRY WITH A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO NOSING INTO
THE GULF COAST STATES. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL
TEXAS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO EASTERN WEST
VIRGINIA THIS EVENING WITH PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION OCCURRING ACROSS
NORTH CAROLINA. A FEW STORMS DEVELOPED ON A SURFACE BOUNDARY NEAR
COLUMBIA AND SHIFTED NORTHEASTWARD BUT HAVE DIMINISHED WITH THE
LOSS OF HEATING.
AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINKS SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT THE POSSIBILITY
OF NOCTURNAL PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME FOCUSED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AND WESTERN MIDLANDS...THOUGH MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH PWAT VALUES
ONLY AROUND 1.3 INCHES. HIGH RESOLUTION HRRR DOES NOT INDICATE ANY
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION OVERNIGHT BUT WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD ON TO
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS LATER TONIGHT WITH FAVORABLE CORFIDI
VECTORS AND UPSTREAM CONVECTION EXPECTED TO PUSH EASTWARD.
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES...SOME STRATUS TOWARD MORNING AND POSSIBLY FOG.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE MIDLANDS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT AND STALL NEAR OR JUST SOUTH
OF THE CSRA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL RIDGE
INTO THE CAROLINAS RESULTING IN A SHALLOW WEDGE/COLD AIR DAMMING
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
MOST OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR THE FRONT ON SATURDAY...SO
KEPT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MIDLANDS. GIVEN
WEST-SOUTHWEST 850MB FLOW...TEMPERATURES WILL BE STILL BE WARM ON
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S NORTH TO NEAR 90
SOUTH. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
WITH SHALLOW WEDGE/COLD AIR DAMMING ON SUNDAY SHOULD SEE COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN. COULD SEE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CSRA CLOSERS TO THE FRONT. RANGED HIGH
TEMPERATURES FROM THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO MID 80S SOUTH. OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RIDGE BUILDS NEAR THE ATLANTIC COAST AND A DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS CAUSING AN AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN. THE
GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO CONVERGE.
CHALLENGING FORECAST WITH SHALLOW WEDGE FROM SUNDAY ERODING
MONDAY AS LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS TO SOUTHEAST AS SURFACE RIDGE TO
THE NORTH MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. UPPER RIDGE BUILDING
OFF CAROLINA COAST IN RESPONSE TO DEEP TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
PLAINS. A STRONG COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS MIDWEST UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST. CONFIDENCE
HIGH ENOUGH FOR LIKELY POPS TUESDAY BASED ON GFS ENSEMBLES.
MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT SHOULD BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
SUGGEST SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. DRY REST OF PERIOD BEHIND
FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BEHIND FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING WITH SCATTERED
CLOUDS. CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED THIS EVENING...SO THREAT
TO TERMINALS IS QUITE LOW. MODELS SUGGEST SOME STRATUS OR PATCHY
FOG POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY...THIS IS SUPPORTED
BY SREF. WILL GO WITH MVFR IN TERMINALS TOWARD MORNING. WINDS
LIGHT SOUTHWEST.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS IN VISIBILITY DUE TO
MORNING FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
1100 AM EDT THU OCT 9 2014
.UPDATE...
A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IS MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY
THIS MORNING. THESE STORMS SHOULD PASS TO OUR NORTH...BUT
BOUNDARIES EMANATING FROM THIS CONVECTION MAY SPARK SOME
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA AS WE HEAD TOWARDS MIDDAY.
OTHERWISE... LOWERED MAX TEMPS IN NORTHWEST A BIT TO ACCOUNT FOR
CLOUD COVER AND ADJUSTED DEWPOINTS TO MATCH TRENDS. ALL OTHER
ELEMENTS LOOKED GOOD. NO OTHER UPDATES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
RW
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 730 AM EDT THU OCT 9 2014/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU OCT 9 2014/
MODELS SEEM TO BE DOING THEIR BEST TO SHOW WHERE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE
WILL BE WITH THE WEAK SHORT WAVES THAT ARE MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...UNFORTUNATELY...BECAUSE OF THE
FAST FLOW...TIMING HAS BEEN RATHER DIFFICULT. BASED ON THE 00Z RUN...
IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST MOISTURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH GA TODAY AND
THEN AGAIN FRIDAY. TODAYS SHORT WAVE LOOKS A BIT WEAKER THAN FRIDAYS
AND HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TODAY...AND CHANCE POPS FRIDAY.
CENTRAL GA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WILL
KEEP THAT AREA DRY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE
LAST 4 DAYS...THE MAV/MET BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES HAS BEEN DOING A
GREAT JOB AND WILL BE GOING WITH THE BLEND.
17
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU OCT 9 2014/
RELATIVELY FLAT UPPER-LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A SERIES OF
WEAK WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ACROSS THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO
VALLEYS. THIS IMPACTS MAINLY NORTH GEORGIA WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK THE UPPER FLOW BEGINS TURNING INCREASINGLY
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OFF A VERY DEEP AND SHARP UPPER TROUGH
DIGGING INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. THE GFS HAS CONTINUED TRENDING TOWARD
THE EARLIER ECMWF TRENDS OF DEVELOPING AN UNUSUALLY STRONG AND DEEP
SYSTEM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. GFS/ECMWF/CMC ALL CLOSE OFF A DEEP
UPPER LOW OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE MONDAY OR EARLY
TUESDAY. GFS REMAINS AT LEAST SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE
SYSTEM. TIMING IS LIKELY TO WAVER A BIT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF MODEL
RUNS...BUT RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THE BIGGEST IMPACTS WILL BE TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE STRONG SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED STRONG
SURFACE FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. ALTHOUGH MODEL INSTABILITY
REMAINS MODEST AT BEST...STRONG FORCING AND MODERATE TO STRONG LOW-
LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR POINT TO A DECENT POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER.
20
AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST. HOWEVER PATCHY FOG IS LIKELY
ACROSS THE REGION THAT COULD PRODUCE MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT
HOUR OR SO. SCT-BKN CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WITH SCT CU DEVELOPING LATE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED-SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE
TAF SITES...ALTHOUGH THE HRRR IS HINTING AT ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING
INTO THE ATL AREA THIS AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME RISK IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE ATL AREA TAFS BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.
WINDS WILL BE CALM OR NEAR CALM THIS MORNING...THEN LIGHT WESTERLY
IN ATL/CSG...AND LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY IN AHN/MCN. WINDS SHOULD BECOME
CALM OR NEAR CALM AFTER 01Z FRI.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON SHRA DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.
17
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 85 62 85 63 / 20 10 10 10
ATLANTA 85 67 84 65 / 20 10 10 20
BLAIRSVILLE 78 59 78 60 / 30 20 50 30
CARTERSVILLE 84 62 85 61 / 30 20 20 30
COLUMBUS 90 66 89 65 / 10 5 5 10
GAINESVILLE 83 64 83 63 / 20 20 20 20
MACON 90 64 89 63 / 10 10 10 5
ROME 85 61 85 60 / 30 20 30 30
PEACHTREE CITY 86 60 85 62 / 20 10 10 10
VIDALIA 88 66 87 66 / 5 5 5 5
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM...RW
AVIATION...ARG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
730 AM EDT THU OCT 9 2014
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU OCT 9 2014/
MODELS SEEM TO BE DOING THEIR BEST TO SHOW WHERE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE
WILL BE WITH THE WEAK SHORT WAVES THAT ARE MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...UNFORTUNATELY...BECAUSE OF THE
FAST FLOW...TIMING HAS BEEN RATHER DIFFICULT. BASED ON THE 00Z RUN...
IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST MOISTURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH GA TODAY AND
THEN AGAIN FRIDAY. TODAYS SHORT WAVE LOOKS A BIT WEAKER THAN FRIDAYS
AND HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TODAY...AND CHANCE POPS FRIDAY.
CENTRAL GA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WILL
KEEP THAT AREA DRY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE
LAST 4 DAYS...THE MAV/MET BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES HAS BEEN DOING A
GREAT JOB AND WILL BE GOING WITH THE BLEND.
17
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU OCT 9 2014/
RELATIVELY FLAT UPPER-LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A SERIES OF
WEAK WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ACROSS THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO
VALLEYS. THIS IMPACTS MAINLY NORTH GEORGIA WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK THE UPPER FLOW BEGINS TURNING INCREASINGLY
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OFF A VERY DEEP AND SHARP UPPER TROUGH
DIGGING INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. THE GFS HAS CONTINUED TRENDING TOWARD
THE EARLIER ECMWF TRENDS OF DEVELOPING AN UNUSUALLY STRONG AND DEEP
SYSTEM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. GFS/ECMWF/CMC ALL CLOSE OFF A DEEP
UPPER LOW OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE MONDAY OR EARLY
TUESDAY. GFS REMAINS AT LEAST SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE
SYSTEM. TIMING IS LIKELY TO WAVER A BIT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF MODEL
RUNS...BUT RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THE BIGGEST IMPACTS WILL BE TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE STRONG SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED STRONG
SURFACE FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. ALTHOUGH MODEL INSTABILITY
REMAINS MODEST AT BEST...STRONG FORCING AND MODERATE TO STRONG LOW-
LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR POINT TO A DECENT POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER.
20
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST. HOWEVER PATCHY FOG IS LIKELY
ACROSS THE REGION THAT COULD PRODUCE MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT
HOUR OR SO. SCT-BKN CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WITH SCT CU DEVELOPING LATE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED-SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE
TAF SITES...ALTHOUGH THE HRRR IS HINTING AT ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING
INTO THE ATL AREA THIS AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME RISK IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE ATL AREA TAFS BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.
WINDS WILL BE CALM OR NEAR CALM THIS MORNING...THEN LIGHT WESTERLY
IN ATL/CSG...AND LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY IN AHN/MCN. WINDS SHOULD BECOME
CALM OR NEAR CALM AFTER 01Z FRI.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON SHRA DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.
17
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 85 62 85 63 / 5 10 10 10
ATLANTA 85 67 84 65 / 10 10 10 20
BLAIRSVILLE 78 59 78 60 / 20 20 50 30
CARTERSVILLE 84 62 85 61 / 20 20 20 30
COLUMBUS 90 66 89 65 / 5 5 5 10
GAINESVILLE 83 64 83 63 / 20 10 20 20
MACON 90 64 89 63 / 5 10 10 5
ROME 86 61 85 60 / 20 20 30 30
PEACHTREE CITY 86 60 85 62 / 5 10 10 10
VIDALIA 88 66 87 66 / 0 5 5 5
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...17
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
130 AM EDT THU OCT 9 2014
.UPDATE...
/ISSUED AT 1020 PM EDT WED OCT 8 2014/
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DIMINISHED SO HAVE LOWERED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE
UNTIL 06Z FOR THE WESTERN ZONES...THEN NO POPS UNTIL MORNING. NO
CHANGES OTHERWISE.
41
&&
.PREVIOUS...
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
JUST AS SHORT TERM MODELS HAD BEEN PROJECTING...INSTABILITY AXIS
PER SPC MESOANALYSIS HAS SET UP FROM NORTHERN ALABAMA THROUGH WEST
CENTRAL GEORGIA AND THEN THROUGH MACON. THIS AXIS IS CHARACTERIZED
BY CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 2500 J/KG AND 3000 J/KG AND HAS BEEN
SHIFTING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD FOLLOWING THE BOUNDARY THAT WAS SPAWNED
FROM THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION. SHORT TERM REFLECTIVITY MODELS HAVE
REALLY BACKED OFF ON POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER
CENTRAL GEORGIA LATER THIS EVENING WITH THE HRRR ONLY SHOWING
HINTS OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING NOW. DESPITE THIS...STICKING WITH LOW
END CHANCE IN THE GRIDS GIVEN AFOREMENTIONED INSTABILITY AXIS AS
WELL AS BOUNDARY WHICH SHOULD ACT AS A FOCUSING MECHANISM AFTER
21Z. ONLY ITEM MISSING IS AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE AND IN FACT WE ARE
IN AN AREA OF GENERALLY DOWNWARD MOTION THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE
OF MORNING DISTURBANCE BUT SHOULD BECOME MORE NEUTRAL IN NATURE BY
THIS EVENING.
LESS MOISTURE NOTED IN THE LOW LEVELS FOR TONIGHT SO MODELS NOT
PEGGING NEAR AS MUCH ON LOW CLOUD POTENTIAL. THERE IS SOME GROUND
MOISTURE MODELS ARE TRYING TO RESOLVE SO THERE MAY BE A BIT MORE
PATCHY FOG TO DEAL WITH OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS.
TWO MORE DISTURBANCES IN STORE FOR THURSDAY...THE FIRST LOOKS TO
BE IN THE MORNING AND REMAINING LARGELY OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
SO EXPECTING LIMITED IMPACTS FROM THAT ONE. THE SECOND MOVES
THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON AND SPAN MOST OF THE STATE PER THE GFS SO
A LITTLE BETTER CHANCES WITH THAT ONE ALTHOUGH LIMITED MOISTURE
WILL KEEP POPS IN THE LOW END CHANCE CATEGORY AT BEST.
DEESE
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXTENDED STARTS WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT BUT WITH DEEPENING
SHORTWAVE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...SPREADING PACIFIC TROPICAL
MOISTURE EAST TO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. LOOKS LIKE A
PROLONGED WET PERIOD TO OUR NORTH BUT FOR NOW ONLY MINOR IMPACTS
IN NORTH GEORGIA. OVER THE WEEKEND...SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES SLIDES EAST AND DAMS DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD. HARD TO TELL
AT THIS POINT HOW FAR SOUTH THAT DAMMING WILL EXTEND BUT IT COULD
ACTUALLY BE KIND OF COOL AND CLOUDY ON SUNDAY WITH THE HYBRID
DAMMING. GFS A LITTLE MORE IMPRESSIVE FOR THE SYSTEM NEXT WEEK...
TRENDING A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE ECMWF BUT STILL NOT NEARLY AS
STRONG. ECMWF CONTINUES TO PUSH A CUTOFF LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WITH A STRONG FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. GFS NOT AS STRONG AND QUITE A BIT FASTER...
WITH THE FRONT PROGGED TO AFFECT US MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY SO NO CHANGES TO THAT PORTION OF THE
EXTENDED AT THIS TIME. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO 4TH AND 5TH PERIODS TO
REFRESH WITH NEW DATA. SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.
TDP
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 250 AM EDT WED OCT 8 2014/
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE CURRENT EXTENDED FORECAST TRENDS AS THE LATEST
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUN REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS THROUGH
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. UPPER-LEVEL FLOW STARTS OUT FAIRLY FLAT
AND REMAINS SO THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE
TO SHOW SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD
CONCERNING THE DEPTH AND SHARPNESS OF THE UPPER TROUGH DIGGING OUT OF
THE PLAINS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HOWEVER BOTH SHOW OUR REGION
COMING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BY THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. WITH GEORGIA JUST SOUTH OF THE MORE ACTIVE
WESTERLY FLOW...BOTH MODELS KEEP THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE NORTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EVEN DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK AS THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES SPREAD INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA...
BETTER CHANCES REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTH.
MODEL INSTABILITY VARIES SOMEWHAT THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT EACH DAY
SHOWS AT LEAST MARGINAL VALUES UNTIL AROUND WEDNESDAY SO I HAVE KEPT
THUNDER IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
20
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST. HOWEVER PATCHY FOG IS LIKELY
ACROSS THE REGION THAT COULD PRODUCE MVFR CONDITIONS. SCT-BKN CIRRUS
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH SCT CU DEVELOPING LATE
THIS MORNING AND CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED-SCATTERED
CONVECTION WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE CALM OR
NEAR CALM THIS MORNING...THEN LIGHT WESTERLY IN ATL/CSG...AND LIGHT
SOUTHEASTLY IN AHN/MCN. WINDS SHOULD BECOME CALM OR NEAR CALM AFTER
01Z FRI.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.
17
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 58 85 61 82 / 10 5 20 20
ATLANTA 65 84 65 82 / 20 30 20 20
BLAIRSVILLE 53 78 56 78 / 5 20 20 30
CARTERSVILLE 58 86 61 83 / 10 20 20 30
COLUMBUS 66 89 65 87 / 30 5 10 10
GAINESVILLE 60 82 62 80 / 10 20 20 30
MACON 63 88 64 86 / 30 20 40 10
ROME 58 86 60 84 / 20 30 20 30
PEACHTREE CITY 59 85 60 83 / 20 30 30 20
VIDALIA 67 89 67 86 / 30 5 10 5
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....TDP
AVIATION...41
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1232 PM CDT THU OCT 9 2014
.DISCUSSION...
249 AM CDT
//SHORT TERM...
TODAY...
THIS MORNING...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES SOUTHEAST ACROSS ILLINOIS AND TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE IS IN PLACE OVER OKLAHOMA WITH A
WARM FRONT EXTENDING ENE ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI BUT LESS DEFINED
FARTHER EAST INTO ILLINOIS. RAIN IS ALREADY IN PLACE NORTH OF THE
FRONT ACROSS IOWA INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS ASSOCIATED WITH A CORRIDOR
OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO GENERALLY STAY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A RFD TO VPZ
LINE...AND AS THE HIGH CENTER BUILDS SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST TODAY...THE AXIS OF FORCING SHOULD ALSO GRADUALLY
SHIFT SOUTH ALONG WITH THE PRECIPITATION. ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA...SKIES SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR BY AROUND MIDDAY WITH DEEP
MIXING TAPPING INTO DRY AIR ALOFT. DEW POINTS YESTERDAY MIXED INTO
THE LOW TO MID 30S AND EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS TODAY FOR AREAS
THAT CLEAR OUT EARLY ENOUGH. AFTERNOON HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 50S.
TONIGHT...A MODEST GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE WITH A LIGHT NORTH WIND
THROUGH THE NIGHT. GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS THAT SOME THIN CIRRUS MAY
BE OVER THE AREA WHICH COMBINED WITH THE LIGHT WINDS WILL TO SOME
DEGREE INHIBIT RADIATIONAL COOLING. STILL...TEMPS OVER FAR NORTH
CENTRAL ILLINOIS ARE PROGGED TO FALL INTO THE MID 30S TONIGHT. GIVEN
THE AFOREMENTIONED CONDITIONS...ITS UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT IF THERE
WILL BE A WIDESPREAD FROST SO WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES AND LET
DAY CREW REASSESS. THIS WOULD BE CONFINED TO A FEW COUNTIES OVER
FAR NORTH CENTRAL IL WEST OF THE FOX RIVER VALLEY. ELSEWHERE CLOUD
COVER WILL BE THICKER HELPING PROP TEMPERATURES UP RESULTING IN
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW 40S.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST
FRIDAY INTO THE UPPER OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY LATE SATURDAY SHUNTING
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE BACK SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THERE REMAIN
LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIP MAINLY SOUTH OF I-80 DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS
A NOD TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH SUGGESTS A SLIGHTLY DEEPER SURFACE
LOW OVER ARKLATEX AND A SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH POSITIONING OF THE
WARM FRONT COMPARED TO OTHER MODELS. ALSO...GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME VERY
MODEST DIURNAL INSTABILITY OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY THANKS TO STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WHILE SOUNDINGS PAINT
A FAIRLY DRY COLUMN...LAKE EFFECT CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED TO PUSH IN
OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN OVER FAR NORTHEASTERN IL AND NORTHWEST IN AND
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES. AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT...WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH AND SKIES SHOULD
CLEAR ALLOWING FOR FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING...ESPECIALLY OVER
NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS WHICH WILL BE CLOSEST TO THE RIDGE AXIS.
TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S WEST OF THE FOX
RIVER VALLEY WHERE THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE AT FROST...AND MID TO
UPPER 30S ELSEWHERE. SATURDAY SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH THE
HIGH CENTERED OVER FAR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 50S.
//LONG TERM...
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
PATTERN IS PROGGED TO AMPLIFY STARTING LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS POTENT
UPPER WAVE DIGS FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND CARVES OUT A TROUGH
THAT EXTENDS SOUTH INTO TEXAS BY LATE MONDAY. SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED
TO DEEPEN OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LIFT INTO THE MIDWEST. FOR
NOW THERE IS A GENERAL CONSENSUS IN A SURFACE LOW TRACK NEAR OR
SOUTH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA...THOUGH
TIMING AND MAGNITUDE REMAINS UNCERTAIN. IT DOES APPEAR GIVEN THE
TRACK THAT WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION SOMETIME
DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT APPEARING TO BE
THE BEST CHANCE WITH DRIER WEATHER THEN EXPECTED BY MIDWEEK.
DEUBELBEISS
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* WHETHER A LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY WILL PENETRATE INLAND FAR ENOUGH
TO TURN WINDS NELY.
* CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS FRIDAY.
KREIN
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
PERSISTENT DEEP LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER NRN QUEBEC WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE EDGES OUT OF CANADA AND INTO THE NRN PLAINS...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ALSO OVER THE ERN CONUS. THIS HAS SET UP WEAK PRESSURE
FIELD OVER NRN IL/IN/SRN LAKE MICHIGAN. THE RESULTANT WEAK
GRADIENT HAS ALLOWED FOR A LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY TO FORM...AND PER
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY...HAS PUSHED INLAND INTO COOK COUNTY IL AND
LAKE COUNTY IN. WITH TEMPERATURES ON LAND AND OVER THE LAKE FAIRLY
SIMILAR...THERE IS NOT MUCH PUSH BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AND THERE IS
SOME CONCERN HOW FAR INLAND THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY WILL PUSH.
THE LATEST HIGH RES MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE BOUNDARY WILL
PUSH INLAND OF MDW BY 22Z TURNING WINDS TO NELY...BUT NOT REACH
ORD UNTIL 23Z. THERE IS ALSO SOME INDICATION THAT THE BOUNDARY MAY
WASH OUT BEFORE ORD HAS AN OPPORTUNITY TO TURN NELY...WITH WINDS
REMAINING NLY-NNWLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. IN EITHER
CASE...WHETHER THE BOUNDARY PUSHES INLAND OF ORD...ANTICIPATE THAT
WIND SPEEDS WILL MAX OUT AT 7-8KT.
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST...WITH THE AXIS OF THE ASSOCIATED RIDGE LINING UP
ACROSS SRN WI AND SRN LAKE MICHIGAN...SETTING UP A LARGE SCALE
NELY PRESSURE GRADIENT DURG THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS WILL SET
UP A FETCH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...LEADING TO MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING
THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH PERSISTENT NELY WINDS THROUGH THE DAY.
WITH THE NELY FLOW REPRESENTATIVE OF THE LARGE SCALE
PATTERN...RATHER THAN A LAKE BREEZE...WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BE A
LITTLE STRONGER...REACHING 10KT...OR PERHAPS A LITTLE HIGHER...BY
LATE MORNING. NELY WINDS ARND 10KT AND MVFR CIGS SHOULD PERSIST AT
LEAST INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
KREIN
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE LAKE BREEZE PUSHING INLAND OF
MDW BY ARND 22Z.
* LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE LAKE BREEZE PUSHING INLAND OF
ORD.
* MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
* MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY.
KREIN
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. NORTHEAST WINDS.
SATURDAY...VFR. CHANCE FOR RAIN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. NORTHEAST
WINDS.
SUNDAY...CHANCE FOR RAIN AND MVFR. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS.
MONDAY...RAIN LIKELY AT TIMES ALONG WITH MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR.
TUESDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. NORTHWEST WINDS.
WEDNESDAY...WEST WINDS.
MTF
&&
.MARINE...
204 AM CDT
THE DEEP LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS PERSISTED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
CANADA THIS WEEK WILL VERY SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST OVER NORTHERN
QUEBEC TODAY AND TONIGHT. ONE LAST WEAK COLD FRONT EMANATING
FROM THIS WILL TRAVERSE DOWN THE LAKE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. THIS LOOKS TO BRING ONSHORE GUSTS UP TO 20 KT ON
FRIDAY IN THE ILLINOIS AND INDIANA NEARSHORE. HIGH PRESSURE THAT
IS OVER THE UPPER PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN LAKES ON SATURDAY AND THEN DEPART OFF TO THE EAST BY
EARLY SUNDAY. AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH TAKES SHAPE ACROSS THE
PLAINS STATES ON SUNDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ENVELOP THE LAKE
INTO MONDAY. THIS TROUGH WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS
PRESENTLY FORECAST TO PASS THE LAKE SOMETIME MONDAY AFTERNOON OR
NIGHT...WITH LOW PRESSURE POSSIBLY DEVELOPING ALONG THIS FEATURE.
THIS WOULD AT LEAST PARTIALLY DICTATE THE DEGREE OF THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION SURGE AND WINDS BEHIND ITS PASSAGE. RIGHT NOW THIS DOES
NOT LOOK PARTICULARLY STRONG...MORE IN THE 15-25 KT TYPE RANGE.
MTF
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1230 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1000 AM CDT THU OCT 9 2014
Frontal boundary draped just south of our area, extending
from southeast Kansas to along the Ohio River. Couple steady areas
of showers have been tracking through, one south of I-72 with some
isentropic lift, and one with more of a deformation zone band
closer to the northern CWA border. So far the thunder areas have
been staying out our south, and RAP guidance suggesting that
showers will continue to be the general trend through the day.
With time, the focus for precipitation will be shifting to the
southern half of the forecast area. Have sent some updates to
diminish the PoP`s across the northwest this afternoon, but have
kept likely PoP`s going most other areas. Temperatures have been
on track, with the big question whether the 60s arrive in the
southeast. Latest NAM and RAP mostly keep the front just to our
south. Although the LAMP guidance brings mid-upper 60s to
Lawrenceville, it is running about 5 degrees too warm out of the
gate. Have not adjusted highs at this time, but will monitor the
next few hours.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT THU OCT 9 2014
Most of central Illinois is between two regions of precipitation
early this morning. One to the north appears to be associated with
lift resulting from a low level deformation zone in a col region of
an elongated high pressure ridge. This has brought generally light
stratiform rain from around Peoria to Danville through the
northern portions of the central Illinois forecast area. To the
south...a region of isentropic lift from northwest Missouri to
southern Illinois has brought numerous thunderstorms to that
region. The isentropic lift area is expected to lift northeastward
into central Illinois by late morning to early afternoon. However,
models indicate that the moderate MUCAPE amounts around 1500 J/kg
will remain south of central Illinois through the day, with only a
few hundred J/kg reaching southern portions of our forecast area.
As a result, will continue with likely precipitation forecast but
only as high as chance for thunderstorms. Precipitation amounts
look to remain modest today as a result of the limited
instability.
With considerable cloudiness and warm air pushing into the area
aloft, but northeasterly surface winds, it appears surface
temperatures will remain quite cool today...primarily in the upper
50s to low 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT THU OCT 9 2014
Will continue high chances of showers and possible thunderstorms
over southern half tonight into Friday while pops lower over
northern parts which eventually go dry from Rushville to Bloomington
north as 1025 mb Canadian high pressure settles into the Great Lakes
region Friday night and Saturday. Rainfall amounts today through Friday
range from near or over 1 inch SW of Effingham and Robinson in
southeast IL to near a quarter inch north of Peoria.
Lingered chances of showers over southeast IL Friday night and
Saturday while most of central IL to be dry. Below normal highs
mostly in the upper 50s Friday and Saturday. Lows tonight range
from lower 40s north to lower 50s far south along highway 50.
Patchy frost possible later Friday night north of a Galesburg to
Henry line while more widespread frost north of I-80. Dropped lows
to 37F at Galesburg Friday night while lower 40s south of Peoria.
Extended forecast models and their ensembles agree with showing a
strong full latitude upper level trof shifting eastward into the MS
river valley Tue with a cutoff low forming over the mid MS river
valley by 00Z/Wed. The ECMWF model continue to be the slowest model
while GFS is the fastest and GEM model in in between. Leaned toward
the slower ECMWF model and have increased chances of showers and
isolated thunderstorms early next week. Low pressure to deepen NE
from the southern Rockies/Plains into the Great Lakes Region Monday
night and another surface low to move up the Ohio river valley Tue.
Will see chances of showers Sunday increase to likely chances Monday
and Monday night especially over eastern/SE IL where heaviest qpf
will be. As much as 1.5 to 2.5 inches of rain expected from Sun-Tue
with highest amounts near the Wabash river. Drier weather finally
returns to central/SE IL on Tue night and Wed.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT THU OCT 9 2014
Have made some significant adjustments to the TAFs for the next
24 hours. Most of the shower activity has moved out at midday,
with just some lingering -SHRA from KDEC-KCMI. Removed mention of
thunder as greatest instability expected to remain well to the
south. There is a narrow band of IFR conditions on the northern
edge of the shower area, so have included some mention of this at
KBMI/KCMI for the first couple hours of the new TAFs. Otherwise,
largely VFR conditions on tap through evening. Toward 06Z, another
surge of showers is projected by most of the models to spread
northeast into central Illinois. However, the KSPI-KCMI corridor
looks to be the northern fringe. Have mentioned some MVFR
visibilities for a few hours late night with this rain, but kept
it VFR further north. Northeast winds to prevail at all TAF sites
through the period, picking up some in speed Friday morning.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...Onton
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Geelhart
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1105 AM CDT THU OCT 9 2014
.DISCUSSION...
249 AM CDT
//SHORT TERM...
TODAY...
THIS MORNING...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES SOUTHEAST ACROSS ILLINOIS AND TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE IS IN PLACE OVER OKLAHOMA WITH A
WARM FRONT EXTENDING ENE ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI BUT LESS DEFINED
FARTHER EAST INTO ILLINOIS. RAIN IS ALREADY IN PLACE NORTH OF THE
FRONT ACROSS IOWA INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS ASSOCIATED WITH A CORRIDOR
OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO GENERALLY STAY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A RFD TO VPZ
LINE...AND AS THE HIGH CENTER BUILDS SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST TODAY...THE AXIS OF FORCING SHOULD ALSO GRADUALLY
SHIFT SOUTH ALONG WITH THE PRECIPITATION. ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA...SKIES SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR BY AROUND MIDDAY WITH DEEP
MIXING TAPPING INTO DRY AIR ALOFT. DEW POINTS YESTERDAY MIXED INTO
THE LOW TO MID 30S AND EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS TODAY FOR AREAS
THAT CLEAR OUT EARLY ENOUGH. AFTERNOON HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 50S.
TONIGHT...A MODEST GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE WITH A LIGHT NORTH WIND
THROUGH THE NIGHT. GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS THAT SOME THIN CIRRUS MAY
BE OVER THE AREA WHICH COMBINED WITH THE LIGHT WINDS WILL TO SOME
DEGREE INHIBIT RADIATIONAL COOLING. STILL...TEMPS OVER FAR NORTH
CENTRAL ILLINOIS ARE PROGGED TO FALL INTO THE MID 30S TONIGHT. GIVEN
THE AFOREMENTIONED CONDITIONS...ITS UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT IF THERE
WILL BE A WIDESPREAD FROST SO WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES AND LET
DAY CREW REASSESS. THIS WOULD BE CONFINED TO A FEW COUNTIES OVER
FAR NORTH CENTRAL IL WEST OF THE FOX RIVER VALLEY. ELSEWHERE CLOUD
COVER WILL BE THICKER HELPING PROP TEMPERATURES UP RESULTING IN
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW 40S.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST
FRIDAY INTO THE UPPER OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY LATE SATURDAY SHUNTING
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE BACK SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THERE REMAIN
LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIP MAINLY SOUTH OF I-80 DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS
A NOD TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH SUGGESTS A SLIGHTLY DEEPER SURFACE
LOW OVER ARKLATEX AND A SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH POSITIONING OF THE
WARM FRONT COMPARED TO OTHER MODELS. ALSO...GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME VERY
MODEST DIURNAL INSTABILITY OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY THANKS TO STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WHILE SOUNDINGS PAINT
A FAIRLY DRY COLUMN...LAKE EFFECT CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED TO PUSH IN
OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN OVER FAR NORTHEASTERN IL AND NORTHWEST IN AND
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES. AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT...WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH AND SKIES SHOULD
CLEAR ALLOWING FOR FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING...ESPECIALLY OVER
NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS WHICH WILL BE CLOSEST TO THE RIDGE AXIS.
TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S WEST OF THE FOX
RIVER VALLEY WHERE THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE AT FROST...AND MID TO
UPPER 30S ELSEWHERE. SATURDAY SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH THE
HIGH CENTERED OVER FAR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 50S.
//LONG TERM...
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
PATTERN IS PROGGED TO AMPLIFY STARTING LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS POTENT
UPPER WAVE DIGS FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND CARVES OUT A TROUGH
THAT EXTENDS SOUTH INTO TEXAS BY LATE MONDAY. SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED
TO DEEPEN OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LIFT INTO THE MIDWEST. FOR
NOW THERE IS A GENERAL CONSENSUS IN A SURFACE LOW TRACK NEAR OR
SOUTH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA...THOUGH
TIMING AND MAGNITUDE REMAINS UNCERTAIN. IT DOES APPEAR GIVEN THE
TRACK THAT WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION SOMETIME
DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT APPEARING TO BE
THE BEST CHANCE WITH DRIER WEATHER THEN EXPECTED BY MIDWEEK.
DEUBELBEISS
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...
* WIND DIRECTION LIKELY VARYING SOMEWHAT BETWEEN NORTHWEST AND
NORTH-NORTHEAST THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON THEN TURNING NORTHEAST
DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON. SPEEDS REMAINING BELOW 10 KT MOST
IF NOT ALL OF THAT TIME.
* POSSIBLY TEMPORARY MVFR CIGS LATE FRIDAY MORNING.
KREIN
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
ANY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO VERY SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTH AWAY FROM THE
CHICAGO AND ROCKFORD TAF SITES TODAY AND THIS EVENING...SO DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WITH HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST
AND BUILDING INTO THE REGION IT WILL CREATE SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN
THE WIND DIRECTION TODAY AND HAVE ALREADY SEEN THAT EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH SOME VARYING BETWEEN NORTHWEST AND NORTH-NORTHEAST.
THE WIND SPEEDS IN THE MIXING LAYER OF THE ATMOSPHERE LOOK TO BE
LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP SURFACE SPEEDS BELOW 10 KT. AS WINDS TURN MORE
NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF NEARBY LAKE
MICHIGAN...SPEEDS SHOULD ALSO REMAIN BELOW 10 KT WITH LIMITED
BAROCLINICITY BETWEEN LAND AND WATER TO DRIVE A STRONGER LAKE
BREEZE.
ON FRIDAY MORNING WINDS SHOULD INCREASE FROM THE NORTHEAST WITH A
WEAK COOL FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD. SPEEDS WILL LIKELY REACH OR
EXCEED 10 KT BY LATE MORNING. THE FETCH OF SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR
DOWN LAKE MICHIGAN WILL LIKELY SUPPORT AT LEAST SCATTERED LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS AND POTENTIALLY BROKEN INTO ORD AND MDW DURING THE
MID TO LATE MORNING ON FRIDAY.
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...
* HIGH THAT WIND SPEED WILL REMAIN BELOW 10 KT FOR MOST OF TODAY.
* LOW ON ANY MVFR CIGS WILL OCCUR LATE FRIDAY MORNING.
KREIN
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. NORTHEAST WINDS.
SATURDAY...VFR. CHANCE FOR RAIN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. NORTHEAST
WINDS.
SUNDAY...CHANCE FOR RAIN AND MVFR. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS.
MONDAY...RAIN LIKELY AT TIMES ALONG WITH MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR.
TUESDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. NORTHWEST WINDS.
WEDNESDAY...WEST WINDS.
MTF
&&
.MARINE...
204 AM CDT
THE DEEP LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS PERSISTED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
CANADA THIS WEEK WILL VERY SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST OVER NORTHERN
QUEBEC TODAY AND TONIGHT. ONE LAST WEAK COLD FRONT EMANATING
FROM THIS WILL TRAVERSE DOWN THE LAKE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. THIS LOOKS TO BRING ONSHORE GUSTS UP TO 20 KT ON
FRIDAY IN THE ILLINOIS AND INDIANA NEARSHORE. HIGH PRESSURE THAT
IS OVER THE UPPER PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN LAKES ON SATURDAY AND THEN DEPART OFF TO THE EAST BY
EARLY SUNDAY. AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH TAKES SHAPE ACROSS THE
PLAINS STATES ON SUNDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ENVELOP THE LAKE
INTO MONDAY. THIS TROUGH WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS
PRESENTLY FORECAST TO PASS THE LAKE SOMETIME MONDAY AFTERNOON OR
NIGHT...WITH LOW PRESSURE POSSIBLY DEVELOPING ALONG THIS FEATURE.
THIS WOULD AT LEAST PARTIALLY DICTATE THE DEGREE OF THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION SURGE AND WINDS BEHIND ITS PASSAGE. RIGHT NOW THIS DOES
NOT LOOK PARTICULARLY STRONG...MORE IN THE 15-25 KT TYPE RANGE.
MTF
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1001 AM CDT Thu Oct 9 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1000 AM CDT THU OCT 9 2014
Frontal boundary draped just south of our area, extending
from southeast Kansas to along the Ohio River. Couple steady areas
of showers have been tracking through, one south of I-72 with some
isentropic lift, and one with more of a deformation zone band
closer to the northern CWA border. So far the thunder areas have
been staying out our south, and RAP guidance suggesting that
showers will continue to be the general trend through the day.
With time, the focus for precipitation will be shifting to the
southern half of the forecast area. Have sent some updates to
diminish the PoP`s across the northwest this afternoon, but have
kept likely PoP`s going most other areas. Temperatures have been
on track, with the big question whether the 60s arrive in the
southeast. Latest NAM and RAP mostly keep the front just to our
south. Although the LAMP guidance brings mid-upper 60s to
Lawrenceville, it is running about 5 degrees too warm out of the
gate. Have not adjusted highs at this time, but will monitor the
next few hours.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT THU OCT 9 2014
Most of central Illinois is between two regions of precipitation
early this morning. One to the north appears to be associated with
lift resulting from a low level deformation zone in a col region of
an elongated high pressure ridge. This has brought generally light
stratiform rain from around Peoria to Danville through the
northern portions of the central Illinois forecast area. To the
south...a region of isentropic lift from northwest Missouri to
southern Illinois has brought numerous thunderstorms to that
region. The isentropic lift area is expected to lift northeastward
into central Illinois by late morning to early afternoon. However,
models indicate that the moderate MUCAPE amounts around 1500 J/kg
will remain south of central Illinois through the day, with only a
few hundred J/kg reaching southern portions of our forecast area.
As a result, will continue with likely precipitation forecast but
only as high as chance for thunderstorms. Precipitation amounts
look to remain modest today as a result of the limited
instability.
With considerable cloudiness and warm air pushing into the area
aloft, but northeasterly surface winds, it appears surface
temperatures will remain quite cool today...primarily in the upper
50s to low 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT THU OCT 9 2014
Will continue high chances of showers and possible thunderstorms
over southern half tonight into Friday while pops lower over
northern parts which eventually go dry from Rushville to Bloomington
north as 1025 mb Canadian high pressure settles into the Great Lakes
region Friday night and Saturday. Rainfall amounts today through Friday
range from near or over 1 inch SW of Effingham and Robinson in
southeast IL to near a quarter inch north of Peoria.
Lingered chances of showers over southeast IL Friday night and
Saturday while most of central IL to be dry. Below normal highs
mostly in the upper 50s Friday and Saturday. Lows tonight range
from lower 40s north to lower 50s far south along highway 50.
Patchy frost possible later Friday night north of a Galesburg to
Henry line while more widespread frost north of I-80. Dropped lows
to 37F at Galesburg Friday night while lower 40s south of Peoria.
Extended forecast models and their ensembles agree with showing a
strong full latitude upper level trof shifting eastward into the MS
river valley Tue with a cutoff low forming over the mid MS river
valley by 00Z/Wed. The ECMWF model continue to be the slowest model
while GFS is the fastest and GEM model in in between. Leaned toward
the slower ECMWF model and have increased chances of showers and
isolated thunderstorms early next week. Low pressure to deepen NE
from the southern Rockies/Plains into the Great Lakes Region Monday
night and another surface low to move up the Ohio river valley Tue.
Will see chances of showers Sunday increase to likely chances Monday
and Monday night especially over eastern/SE IL where heaviest qpf
will be. As much as 1.5 to 2.5 inches of rain expected from Sun-Tue
with highest amounts near the Wabash river. Drier weather finally
returns to central/SE IL on Tue night and Wed.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
ISSUED AT 703 AM CDT THU OCT 9 2014
Two areas of precipitation expected to affect central IL TAF sites
today. First region extends from around KGBG-KDNV northward,
already affecting KPIA, KBMI, KCMI with light showers. Expecting
these sites should see visibility drop into MVFR category by
17-18Z, however cigs predominantly continuing VFR. Overnight, a
push of dry air from high pressure over the upper Mississippi
valley expected to end precipitation over KPIA-KBMI for improving
conditions. Second area of precipitation edging ENE-ward toward
KSPI-KDEC and should bring predominant -shra to these sites in the
next few hours, along with isolated TSRA. Predominantly VFR cigs
expected early on, but cigs/vsbys deteriorating through the day to
predominantly MVFR. This activity expected to continue through
much of the 24 hour TAF period. Winds generally NE 5-10 kts for
the next 24 hours.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...Onton
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Onton
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1226 AM CDT THU OCT 9 2014
.DISCUSSION...
254 PM CDT
SYNOPSIS...RAIN SHOWERS MOVE IN OVERNIGHT AND SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTH
TOMORROW. THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL IN THE 50S. THEN THE PATTERN TURNS A BIT BUSIER WITH
MULTIPLE CHANCES OF SHOWERS BEGINNING SUNDAY AND GOING THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
REST OF TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER ONTARIO FINALLY SHIFTS EAST INTO QUEBEC
TONIGHT AND THEN CONTINUES NORTH ALLOWING THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TO
SHIFT. WE REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. AT
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS LEADING TO A DRY DAY TODAY.
PRECIP MOVES IN OVERNIGHT FROM THE NW AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
MOVED POPS WELL NORTH SO THERE IS AT LEAST A CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE
ENTIRE CWA AND THEN SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. THE
12Z MODEL RUNS WERE MORE ROBUST WITH FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING AND THE
FEATURE LINES UP RATHER WELL WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JETS RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION. MODEL SOUNDINGS FEATURE A LOT OF OMEGA SO THINKING
SHOWERS WILL FORM DESPITE THE DRIER LOW LEVELS. AREAS NORTH OF I-80
SHOULD BE DRY IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING SOUTH OF
I-80. THE GOOD NEWS IS...THE DRY AIR SHOULD LIMIT HOW MUCH RAIN
FALLS SO EXPECTING LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH NORTH OF I-80. WITH
MORE PERSISTENT RAIN EXTENDING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...THINKING
RAINFALL SOUTH OF I-80 WILL BE A BIT MORE ROBUST IN THE 0.15-0.25
RANGE.
THE WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE SHIFTS SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN IL THURSDAY
NIGHT AND THE RAIN WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTH OF THE REGION
OVERNIGHT.
FOR TEMPS...KEPT TONIGHT/S LOW TEMPS ON THE WARM SIDE DUE TO
INCREASING CLOUD COVER. LOOKING AT LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOW 40S
ALONG THE IL/WI STATE LINE TO THE UPPER 40S SOUTH OF I-80. CLOUD
COVER COMBINED WITH COOLER AIR MOVING IN WILL RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 50S TOMORROW. THURSDAY NIGHT/S LOW WILL ALL BE BASED
ON CLOUD COVER AND FLOW OFF OF THE LAKE. OUTLYING AREAS NORTH OF
I-80 WILL COOL INTO THE MID 30S DUE TO CLEAR SKIES...WHILE AREAS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-80 WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S DUE TO CLOUD
COVER. FLOW WILL BE OFF OF THE LAKE SO AREAS ALONG THE LAKE WILL BE
IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
THE FINAL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PASSES TO OUR NORTH FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY BUT THEN QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST OVER THE NE COAST BY SUNDAY
MORNING.
LOOKING A DRY END TO THIS WEEK AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. HAVE RAIN
SHIFTING NORTH AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM SATURDAY NIGHT AND WHAT I
HAVE IN THE FORECAST MAY STILL BE TOO FAST AS THE MODELS KEEP
SLOWING THE SYSTEM DOWN. COULD SEE SOME FROST FRIDAY NIGHT DEPENDING
ON HOW MUCH SKIES CLEAR. LOWS WEST OF A WOODSTOCK TO JOLIET LINE
WILL FALL INTO THE MID TO LOWER 30S...WITH SHELTERED AREAS POSSIBLY
GETTING CLOSE TO FREEZING. PATCHY TO AREAS OF FROST ARE POSSIBLE.
THE OTHER AREAS WILL BE AROUND 40 TO THE LOWER 40S ALONG THE LAKE.
EXTENDED...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA AND ANOTHER TROUGH
APPROACHES EARLY NEXT WEEK. GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON THE EXACT TIMING BUT
IT LOOKS LIKE THE TROUGH WILL PASS OVERHEAD TUESDAY. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SURGES NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH RAIN EXPECTED
SUNDAY. COULD SEE A DRY BREAK IN THE EVENING WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
RAIN MOVING IN MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
SURFACE LOW. EXPECTING MORE RAINFALL ON MONDAY THAN SUNDAY RIGHT
NOW. MODELS DIFFER ON HOW QUICKLY THE NEXT SURFACE HIGH WILL PUSH
THE LOW AND RAIN EAST...SO KEPT CHANCE POPS IN ON TUESDAY EVEN
THOUGH IT COULD BE DRY.
FOR TEMPS...STILL LOOKING BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 FARTHER SOUTH. TEMPS REACH NORMAL MONDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND REMAINING IN THE 60S THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOWS WILL BE ABOVE TO AROUND NORMAL IN THE 40S.
JEE
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* WINDS TURNING NORTHEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON BUT SPEEDS LIKELY
BELOW 10 KT.
* TEMPORARY LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES POSSIBLE...MAINLY AT
MDW...THROUGH 15Z.
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
MULTIPLE WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ALOFT WILL TRAVERSE FROM
NEBRASKA THROUGH INDIANA DURING THIS MORNING. MOISTURE RETURNING
ALOFT WITH THESE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE ECHOES ON RADAR WITH THE
PERIPHERY OF THESE...BASICALLY NEAR THE TAF SITES...YIELDING
TEMPORARY LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES. THIS WILL BE OF NO IMPACT.
CLOUDS WILL REMAIN AOA 7000 FT THROUGH THIS AND THEN GRADUALLY
THINNING LATER THIS EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BRING LIGHT SYNOPTIC WINDS TODAY
AND ALLOW FOR THE LAKE TO HAVE INFLUENCE ON THE WINDS FOR
CHICAGOLAND TAF SITES. WE DO EXPECT THEM TO TURN PARTIALLY
ONSHORE...HOWEVER WITH A SMALL TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN OVER
LAND AND WATER THIS AFTERNOON DO NOT SEE A PARTICULARLY STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCE DEVELOPING...AND THUS KEEP SPEEDS BELOW 10
KT. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY MOST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS.
BEYOND CURRENT TAF TIME...LIKELY SOMETIME FRIDAY MORNING...IT
APPEARS THERE MAY BE SOME BROKEN LAKE EFFECT MVFR CLOUDS INTO
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA.
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* HIGH IN WIND DIRECTION AND TIMING OF VEERING TO NORTHEAST LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. MEDIUM IN WIND SPEED REMAINING BELOW 10 KT.
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH PERIODIC CHANCES OF
SHOWERS WITH SOME PATCHY MVFR CIGS.
MTF
&&
.MARINE...
349 PM CDT
STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC WILL MOVE NORTHWARD AND
MERGE WITH WEAKER LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A VERY STRONG LOW OF 28.9 INCHES TO THE EAST OF
JAMES BAY BY THURSDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER SASKATCHEWAN AND AN ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL GRADUALLY
TRACK EASTWARD. A FAIRLY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT IS IN PLACE ACROSS
LAKE MICHIGAN RESULTING IN 25-30 KT WINDS ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF
THE LAKE. AS THINGS PROGRESS EAST THE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN ACROSS
SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN WHILE REMAINING STRONG TO THE NORTH. THIS
WILL ALLOW WINDS TO EASE SOUTH BUT LIKELY CONTINUE TO GUST TO 30 KT
ACROSS THE NORTH. WIND SPEEDS WILL EASE AND TURN NORTHERLY THURSDAY
ACROSS THE ENTIRE LAKE AS THE HIGH APPROACHES. THE HIGH WILL BE
OVERHEAD BY SATURDAY BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE EAST SUNDAY. AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL THEN BRING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION LATER SUNDAY
OR MONDAY WITH BREEZY SOUTH WINDS SETTING UP AHEAD OF IT. A COLD
FRONT WILL BE DRAGGED ACROSS THE AREA INTO TUESDAY TURNING WINDS
NORTHERLY. CONFIDENCE IN HOW THE PATTERN EVOLVES BEYOND THAT IS LOW
WITH MIXED SIGNALS FROM MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE.
MDB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1203 AM CDT Thu Oct 9 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 909 PM CDT WED OCT 8 2014
Lots of mid clouds advecting into the area this evening, with some
light pcpn seen on radar loops to the northwest across Iowa.
Initial rain should miss the area to the north, but light rain in
southern Iowa will likely reach parts of the CWA around or just
after midnight. Most of forecast looks fine, but will be making
some adjustments to the overnight lows, as some locations lower
than forecast. Update will be forthcoming.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT WED OCT 8 2014
High pressure this evening will keep the winds light and somewhat
variable...though two systems converging on the Midwest bringing
some small chances of precip after midnight and into the morning
hours. Starting with clear skies tonight and slowly clouding up as
moisture and next chances for precip pushes into the region from the
SW. Northeastern CWA under clear skies longer and slightly cooler
as a result. In addition to the energy and moisture from the
SW...another wave moving into the area from the northwest. For a
few runs, operational models, specifically the NAM and the GFS have
divided up the precip... and so far the HRRR is trending the same
way. Wave to the NW seems to be producing precip a couple hours
sooner than the SWrn push, but either way...chances increasing into
the early morning hours.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT WED OCT 8 2014
A complex, evolving upper level weather pattern and the proximity of
a nearly stationary frontal boundary near the Ohio Valley has led to
quite a bit of disagreement in the short and medium range models and
a lower than normal level of confidence in the forecast specifics
for the rest of this week and into early next week.
Complicating things initially are the remnants of Tropical Storm
Simon, which is currently in southern CA. The upper air network is
rather sparse in that area, so the models may be having a hard time
trying to initially latch onto the moisture associated with this
system. The GFS and NAM indicate that during much of Thursday,
isentropic lift should provide the ingredients for widespread
showers and a few thunderstorms. As the upper level forcing with
tropical storm remnants approaches late Thursday into Friday, most
of the lift appears to be focusing farther south toward the nearly
stalled out front. As a result, will keep the higher PoPs south of
Jacksonville-Mattoon-Paris line into Friday. The NAM and GFS may be
a bit overdone with the residual tropical moisture, so scaled back a
bit from the models on precipitation amounts for Thursday night into
Friday. There appears there could be a rather sharp cutoff on the
northern edge of the precipitation for Friday, and followed the
consensus of I-72 and east toward Danville for this line.
With respect to the upper level pattern for early in the weekend,
the GFS and European are not too far off by indicating the flow
backing from westerly to southwesterly. This will bring several
waves of low pressure up the front, but there are differences as to
the speed and location of these systems by Sunday into early next
week. For now will go with an extended period of showers from late
Saturday into Monday. With the progressive nature of the upper level
pattern, will tend to lean a bit more toward the GFS regarding the
ending of the rain by late Monday-very early Tuesday, instead of
continuing the rain all day Tuesday like the European model.
As would be expected with a cloudy and rather rainy forecast, will
keep temperatures below seasonal normals into early next week. A
transition to more of a zonal upper level flow pattern should result
in a trend toward more normal temperatures by the middle of next
week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
ISSUED AT 1203 AM CDT THU OCT 9 2014
Complex scenario for the first 6-12hrs with all TAF sites
overnight. Based on radar trends, there are two areas of pcpn that
will be moving into the area. The northern area, effecting
PIA/BMI/CMI has already moved in, so will have VCSH for PIA/BMI
to start and then added CMI at 07z. These light showers, along
with mid clouds around 10kft will continue at these sites
overnight. SPI and DEC will see the other area of rain move into
the region and effect the sites within the next couple of hours.
Short term models are not consistent, but tried to lean on the
HRRR model for timing and location of pcpn. Toward early morning,
isolated thunder will be included at SPI/DEC/CMI as the two areas
merge together and move across central IL. As this area with
isolated thunder moves east, it will effect PIA/BMI toward noon.
Showers will then continue at all sites during late morning and
afternoon hours. Then around 00z, the pcpn will diminish at PIA
and BMI, so will just go with VCSH there. The pcpn will continue
at the other three sites into the evening hours. Clouds will
remain high to start but then drop to MVFR at SPI/DEC/CMI during
the day, with some stratus developing with the rain. Vis will
decrease at all sites as well, given the nature of the situation
and the light rain that will be occurring at all sites during the
period. Winds will be variable to start but then become east to
northeast.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Auten
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...Auten
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1149 PM MDT WED OCT 8 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 914 PM MDT WED OCT 8 2014
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCORPORATE LATEST 18Z FORECAST GUIDANCE
AND HIGH-RESOLUTION MODEL DATA. SLOWED THE EXPECTED PRECIPITATION
ARRIVAL DOWN BY A FEW HOURS BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. SOME
GUIDANCE...SPECIFICALLY THE NAM AND GFS...BRING PRECIPITATION IN
MUCH EARLIER THAN HIGH-RES MODELS...EUROPEAN AND CANADIAN. ALSO
DECIDED TO INCREASE RAINFALL AMOUNTS...RAISE POPS AND INCLUDE A
HEAVY RAIN MENTION IN THE GRIDS. PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTENT OF THE
ATMOSPHERE IS PROJECTED TO APPROACH 1.2-1.3 INCHES...AROUND 2-3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE FROM THE MBRFC IS NEAR 2 INCHES OVER 3 HOURS AND 3
INCHES OVER 6 HOURS FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70.
DO NOT THINK RAINFALL RATES WILL EXCEED THIS GUIDANCE SO OPTED NOT
TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME EVEN WITH THE ANOMALOUSLY
MOIST ATMOSPHERE.
AS FOR FOG TONIGHT...AM SOMEWHAT SKEPTICAL WE WILL SEE FOG LESS
THAN 3 MILES TONIGHT WITH DENSE CIRRUS OVERHEAD AND AN INCREASE IN
WINDSPEEDS AT AROUND THE TIME OF FOG DEVELOPMENT. KEPT FOG MENTION
IN THE GRIDS BUT OVERALL NOT CONFIDENT IT WILL HAPPEN. MORE THAN
LIKELY...WE WILL HAVE STRATUS TONIGHT INSTEAD OF FOG. DID INSERT
FOG INTO THE FORECAST FOR TOMORROW NIGHT AS A VERY MOIST...POST
FRONTAL ATMOSPHERE WILL BE IN PLACE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM MDT WED OCT 8 2014
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP HF ANALYSIS SHOW NW FLOW ACROSS
THE PLAINS AND THE REMNANTS OF SIMON MOVING OFF THE BAJA PENINSULA
INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. AT THE THE SURFACE A STALLED FRONT
EXTENDS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND INTO NEW MEXICO AND ACROSS THE TX
PANHANDLE. SOUTHERLY GRADIENT EAST OF THIS FRONT HAS HELPED TEMPS
WARM TO THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S DESPITE LINGERING CLOUD COVER.
TONIGHT...WITH MOISTURE POOLING ALONG FRONTAL ZONE IN OUR
WEST/SOUTHWEST AND WINDS SHIFTING TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST FOG MAY
BEGIN TO DEVELOP. COMPLICATION WILL BE LINGERING AND REDEVELOPING
STRATUS...WHICH COULD LIMIT LOW LEVEL STABLE LAYER..AND WITH UPWARD
MOTION GENERALLY FAVORED BY 12Z AS SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SW WE
MAY BE TO WELL MIXED FOR MORE THAN STRATUS OR JUST LIGHT FOG. I KEPT
PATCH FOG MENTION...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH RIGHT NOW.
THURSDAY...ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER ELEVATED FRONTAL ZONE COULD
SUPPORT DRIZZLE AS EARLY AS SUNRISE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA. MODEL
SOUNDINGS REALLY DO NOT START TO SHOW BETTER MID-UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE UNTIL MIDDAY AS REMNANTS OF SIMON MOVE INTO EASTERN
COLORADO/WESTERN KANSAS. CURRENT GUIDANCE SHOWS CLOSED 700MB LOW AND
STRONG JET STREAK MOVING IN FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR DEFORMATION BAND
OF PRECIP TO SET UP OVER I-70 CORRIDOR OR SOUTH BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...AND COUPLED WITH GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT AND TROPICAL
MOISTURE WE COULD START TO SEE STEADY SHOWERS/EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP AS EARLY AS 18Z. THIS IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN PREVIOUS
GUIDANCE AND WHILE I TRENDED POPS UP AM HESITANT TO GO TOO HIGH
UNTIL WE SEE BETTER RUN-RUN CONSISTENCY FOR ONSET THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. CERTAINLY GOOD PRECIP SIGNAL IN CURRENT GUIDANCE...AND
WITH UNSEASONABLY HIGH PWAT VALUES ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL AIR
MASS MAIN PRECIP BAND COULD BE VERY EFFICIENT. MODELS GENERALLY
SHOW LOCATION OF HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF
THE CWA...HOWEVER WITH TRACK OF H7 LOW AND POSSIBLE
DEFORMATION/OVERRUNNING EVENT I COULD SEE THESE AMOUNTS SHIFTING
FURTHER NORTH.
WITH FLOW OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AND CLOUD COVER/PRECIP THERE MAIN BE
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DIURNAL WARMING. I TRENDED HIGHS DOWN FRIDAY TO
THE 60-65F RANGE...AND COULD SEE THIS STILL BEING TOO COOL IF THERE
ISNT A BREAK IN CLOUD COVER BEFORE MAIN AREA OF PRECIP MOVES INTO
REGION.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM MDT WED OCT 8 2014
A TROUGH WILL BE OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
AND THEN SHIFT EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY.
PLAN TO GO WITH LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER OVER
THE FA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS THE MAIN 7H LOW MOVES
OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS WITH GOOD LIFT AND MOISTURE. POPS WILL
DECREASE TO CHANCE IN THE WESTERN FA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE BEST
MOISTURE MOVES EAST. THE GFS AND NAM SOLUTIONS START MOVING MOISTURE
AND DYNAMICS OUT OF THE FA FRIDAY EVENING. POPS FRIDAY EVENING WILL
RANGE FROM SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE DECREASING TO NIL POPS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. BENEFICIAL RAINFALL SHOULD BE REALIZED FROM THIS EVENT
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 1 INCH. SUBSIDENCE WILL MOVE INTO
THE FA BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH WITH NIL POPS CONTINUING SATURDAY.
MIN TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL COOL TO THE MID 40S AND TO
AROUND 40 FRIDAY NIGHT. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER 50S
FRIDAY AND THE LOWER 60S SATURDAY.
IN THE EXTENDED...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...SUBSIDENCE WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE FA SATURDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN NIL POPS.
ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST
MONDAY. SUBSIDENCE WILL MOVE INTO THE FA BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH.
POPS WILL BE NIL MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A
RIDGE/SUBSIDENCE BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS.
MAX TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S SUNDAY
WARMING TO THE LOWER 70S THURSDAY/FRIDAY. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S SATURDAY NIGHT WARMING TO THE
MID 40S BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM MDT WED OCT 8 2014
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST THIS RUN. FIRST...STRATUS IS DEVELOPING
OVER PORTIONS OF SW NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. GUIDANCE
BACKED OFF ON STRATUS ARRIVAL TIMES AND THIS IS HARD TO BELIEVE
CONSIDERING STRATUS DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING. STRATUS HAS NOT
REACHED KMCK YET BUT THIS SHOULD HAPPEN SHORTLY. STRATUS ARRIVAL
WAS DELAYED FOR KGLD ALSO BUT WORSE CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BE MAIN
THINKING. KGLD IS CLOSER TO HIGHEST MOISTURE AND STALLED FRONT.
NEXT QUESTION IS PRECIP CHANCES. LATEST TRENDS IN GUIDANCE SHIFTED
PRECIP AXIS SOUTH. DELAYED ONSET OF PRECIP AT KMCK AND MENTIONED
SHOWERS. LATEST TRENDS INDICATE A CHANCE KMCK COULD MISS PRECIP
COMPLETELY DUE TO DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT FURTHER SOUTH. AT KGLD...PREVAILED MODERATE
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND MODERATE RAIN AFTER 00Z. COULD SEE
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AT KGLD WITH LOWERED VIS/CIGS THAN
ADVERTISED. CIGS/VIS FALL WITH PRECIP ONSET.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RRH
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...RRH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1101 PM EDT FRI OCT 10 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1101 PM EDT FRI OCT 10 2014
RAIN CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. BEST COVERAGE REMAINS
ACROSS THE NORTH...BUT A NARROW LINE OF SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED AND
WILL PUSH ACROSS AREAS NEAR THE TENNESSEE BORDER OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. UPDATED FORECAST TO REFINE THE POPS OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. FOG HAS LIFTED A BIT ACROSS THE AREA...BUT STILL
SEEING A FEW SPOTS ON THE RIDGES REPORTING SOME DENSE FOG...SO WILL
MAINTAIN THE FOG IN THE FORECAST. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS
TO REFLECT A BETTER TREND THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 642 PM EDT FRI OCT 10 2014
UPDATED TO REMOVE THUNDER AS BETTER INSTABILITY HAS SHIFTED SOUTH OF
OUR AREA. THUNDER CHANCES LOOK MINIMAL THROUGH TOMORROW GIVEN
INSTABILITY IS BOTTLED UP SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THUS...PLAN
TO REMOVE ANY THUNDER CHANCES TOMORROW AS WELL. MEANWHILE...FOG HAS
DEVELOPED QUICKLY ON THE RIDGES THIS EVENING AND HAS BECOME LOCALLY
DENSE. PLAN TO ADD FOG INTO THE FORECAST TONIGHT AND INCLUDE IT IN
THE HWO AS IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE DENSE IN PLACES THROUGH DAYBREAK.
SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW DENSE THE FOG WILL END UP IN THE
VALLEYS...BUT IF THE FOG CONTINUES TO EXPAND...MAY NEED TO LOOK AT
THE NEED FOR A DENSE FOG ADVISORY LATER ON. IN FACT... THE RAIN OUT
THERE NOW SHOULD BE MOVING ON THROUGH WITH A LULL EXPECTED AFTER
MIDNIGHT. AS THE BOUNDARY FINALLY SHIFTS SOUTHWARD. THIS WOULD PUT
ALL OF THE AREA ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DENSE FOG. UPDATED FORECAST TO REFINE THE POPS THROUGH THE
REST OF THE NIGHT...FOCUSING THE BETTER POPS IN THE NORTH...WITH
LESSER POPS IN THE SOUTH AS THE SOUTHERN AREAS GET DRY SLOTTED.
FORECAST UPDATE HAS BEEN SENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT FRI OCT 10 2014
19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT LYING JUST NORTH OF
THE TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY BORDER. THIS FRONT IS SERVING AS FOCUSING
MECHANISM FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF
THE STATE THUS FAR THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD CHANGE AS ANOTHER MID
LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND INDUCES A SFC WAVE TO MOVE
ALONG THE FRONT BRINGING RENEWED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE CWA THIS
EVENING AND INTO THE NIGHT. IN THE MEANTIME...JUST A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS ARE FOUND THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY WITH SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY.
THERE HAS BEEN SOME THINNING AND CLEAR PATCHES NOTED IN THE VISIBLE
SATELLITE LOOP OVER EAST KENTUCKY AND THIS SHOULD HELP BUILD SOME
EXTRA INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.
THE THICKEST CLOUDS AND BEING NORTH OF THE FRONT HAS KEPT READINGS
LOCKED IN THE UPPER 50S IN THE FAR NORTH WHILE SOME 70 DEGREE REPORTS
HAVE BEEN NOTED IN THE FAR SOUTH. DEWPOINTS...MEANWHILE...ARE IN THE
LOW AND MID 60S SOUTH AND A BIT LOWER NORTH WHILE LIGHT WINDS ARE
FROM THE NORTHEAST NORTH OF JKL AND FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE SOUTH.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS THEY
ALL DEPICT FAST AND NEAR ZONAL FLOW MOVING OVER KENTUCKY INTO WHICH
A SHEARING MID LEVEL WAVE WILL PERIODICALLY RELEASE ITS ENERGY. A
HEALTHY BATCH IS ON ITS WAY HERE FOR THIS EVENING AND IS RESPONSIBLE
FOR THE CONVECTION CURRENTLY BUILDING OVER TENNESSEE THAT IS POISED
TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO OUR AREA BY EVENING. THE REMNANTS OF THE PLAINS
TROUGH FALLS APART OVER THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT. AS THIS ALL
HAPPENS...PLENTY OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL BE FOUND OVER THE
REGION OWING TO A STRONG 300 MB JET PASSING BY TO THE NORTHEAST. HAVE
GONE WITH A BLEND OF THE MODELS WITH A LEAN TOWARD THE ECMWF
POSITIONS FOR THE FRONT...BUT FAVORED THE NAM12 QPF TOTALS...JUST
TRANSLATED A BIT SOUTH. ALSO INCORPORATED THE LATEST HRRR IN THE NEAR
TERM GRIDS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A WET NIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO KICK UP DURING THE EVENING AND FADE OUT
LATE IN THE NIGHT. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE NEXT
WAVE MOVES OUT BY DAWN SATURDAY AS THE NEXT ONE STARTS TO HEAD THIS
WAY FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BUT TAKING A BIT FURTHER SOUTH
TRACK. IT IS THESE TRACK SHIFTS THAT SHOULD SPARE ANY PARTICULAR PART
OF THE CWA A HIGHER FLOOD RISK DESPITE THE ROUNDS OF RAIN. HOWEVER...
SHOULD THE HEAVIER CELLS TRAIN OVER A SPOT LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THE RAIN WILL ACCUMULATE ENOUGH THAT THE DITCHES AND CREEKS
WILL CERTAINLY BE FULL AT TIMES AND THE LARGER RIVERS WILL RESPOND
AND START TO FILL UP AS WELL. FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT THE
TRACK LOOKS TO FAVOR THE SOUTH AND LIKELY BE A LITTLE LESS ROBUST...
THOUGH EACH WAVE THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY...COULD HAVE PLACES THAT GET
HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ADDRESSED IN AN
ESFJKL. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL WITH A SMALL DIURNAL RANGE.
ONCE AGAIN USED THE CONSSHORT AS A STARTING POINT AGAIN FOR THE
T/TD/WIND GRIDS THROUGH THE FIRST 18-24 HOURS BEFORE GOING WITH THE
SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. DID NOT SEE MANY TARGETS OF OPPORTUNITY FOR
TEMPERATURE IMPROVEMENTS IN THIS ENVIRONMENT SO ONLY MINOR TWEAKS
WERE MADE TO THE MAX AND MIN T GRIDS. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP MOST
SIMILAR TO THE WETTER MAV NUMBERS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT FRI OCT 10 2014
NOT MUCH AGREEMENT IN TIMING OF MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURES THROUGH THE
EXTENDED...BUT BETTER AGREEMENT WITH ACTUAL PATTERN. HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE GREAT PLAINS
EARLY IN THE PERIOD BEFORE FORMING A CUT OFF LOW SOMEWHERE OVER THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...OR MIDWEST BY TUESDAY. FROM THERE FORWARD
THE 12Z GFS IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE TAKING THIS LARGE SYSTEM INTO
THE NORTHEAST BY LATE WEDNESDAY. THE 12Z CANADIAN APPEARS TO BE
COMPROMISE OF THE GFS AND ECMWF. THE 0Z ECMWF...SLOWEST OF ALL THE
OPERATIONAL MODELS ROTATES THE LOW THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AT
A TURTLES PACE BEFORE LIFTING THE SYSTEM NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY REGION LATE IN THE WEEK. NATIONAL GUIDANCE QUESTIONS HOW THE
ECMWF CAN KEEP THE CUT OFF LOW OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY FOR SO
LONG WITHOUT BETTER SUPPORT FROM THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
THAT WOULD PRODUCE THE SPLIT FLOW NECESSARY FOR ITS SOLUTION...AND
IN GENERAL THEY ARE NOT SEEING THOSE TYPES OF SIGNALS. THEREFORE
WILL TEND TO STICK WITH A BLENDED SOLUTION THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
AT THE SURFACE A QUASI STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN
THE REGION LIFTING NORTH AND SOUTH WITH EACH PASSING SFC WAVE AND/OR
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THIS BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH OF OUR AREA LATE
SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM STRENGTHENS TO OUR
WEST. THERE IS MUCH LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST THEREAFTER BUT
CONSENSUS APPROACH SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE...COLD AIR MASS INSTABILITY TYPE SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE
MID WEEK TIME FRAME.
AS FAR AS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...STRONG LLJ MAY DEVELOP
OVER OUR AREA...AHEAD OF THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY AS H850 WIND SPEEDS INCREASE TO BETWEEN 50 AND 70 KTS. THESE
STRONGER WINDS COULD MIX DOWN CREATING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG
STORMS AS AN OCCLUDED FRONT MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA EITHER
LATE MONDAY OR TUESDAY. THIS THREAT WILL INCREASE SHOULD WE SEE
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SUNLIGHT MONDAY. HOWEVER...THERE IS TOO MUCH
DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS TO HAVE ANY CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND
OTHER DETAILS AT THIS POINT. STRONGER...GUSTY WINDS SHOULD BE
EXPECTED BEHIND THE OCCLUDED FRONT AS WELL...WHICH MAY BE REALIZED
AS EARLY AS TUESDAY. ANOTHER HIGHLIGHT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. WHILE FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE ABOVE NORMAL
PWATS...TIMING OF DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WOULD PROVIDE
SOME DECENT BREAKS...RECOVERY TIME BETWEEN SUCCESSIVE BOUTS OF RAIN.
THOUGHTS ARE THAT TRAINING OF CELLS MAY CREATE A MUCH GREATER THREAT
OF HEAVY RAIN...ESPECIALLY OVER SATURATED GROUND. IN ADDITION...
TOTAL RAINFALL WILL BE SPREAD OUT OVER AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME.
THEREFORE FLASH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS GREAT A THREAT AS
IT MIGHT NORMALLY BE. HOWEVER SOME MINOR FLOODING OF LARGER CREEKS
AND STREAMS...AND EVENTUALLY AREA RIVERS...WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
LONG HAUL. ATTM THE CURRENT HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK HANDLES OUR CURRENT
SITUATION WELL.
IN GENERAL SENSIBLE WEATHER LOOKS QUITE UNSTABLE THROUGH TUESDAY...
BUT GRADUALLY IMPROVES AND DRIES OUT THEREAFTER WITH ONLY SOME
INSTABILITY SHOWERS TO DEAL WITH WED-THU. STUCK TO A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS. WITH SUCH A STRONG SOUTHERLY JET AND FETCH OF
AIR INTO THE REGION MONDAY NUDGED TEMPS UP CLOSER TO THE WARMER GFS
GUIDANCE VERSUS THE BLEND. LOOKING FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...THEN NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD. SHOULD THE ECMWF EVENTUALLY TURN OUT TO BE THE BEST
SOLUTION...TUESDAY/S HIGH AND POSSIBLY TUESDAY NIGHTS LOW TEMPS
WOULD COME IN WARMER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 205 PM EDT FRI OCT 10 2014
FOLLOWING THE CURRENT LULL...IN A FEW HOURS THE CONVECTION WILL AGAIN
BE WIDESPREAD OVER THE AREA AND LIKELY LAST THROUGH THE EVENING.
DESPITE THE CURRENT LULL...A VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT HAS RESULTED IN
LOW CIGS ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY. LATER...WITH THE MORE CONCENTRATED
AREAS OF PCPN...VIS WILL FALL TO IFR OR LOWER FOR A TIME. THE RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO LAST OFF AND ON THROUGHOUT THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT...
HOWEVER SOMETIME AFTER 04Z TONIGHT...EXPECT THE CIGS...THAT MANAGED
TO LIFT A BIT AS THE CONVECTION MOVES BACK IN...TO FALL BACK TO 500
FEET OR LOWER ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITH THE HILLTOPS OBSCURED IN
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE GENERALLY 5 TO
10 KTS WITH A SWITCH TO THE NORTH ANTICIPATED TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...RAY
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
700 AM EDT THU OCT 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FROM QUEBEC WILL CROSS NORTHERN AREAS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM
THE WEST...SOUTHWEST FRIDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST FROM
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE AND
NOVA SCOTIA ON SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
645 AM UPDATE: BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR SIM RADAR REF OUTPUT AND THE
LATEST 06Z GFS MODEL OUTPUT...IT APPEARS SHWR ACTIVITY MAY BE A
LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD LATER THIS AFTN THEN EARLIER ANTICIPATED...
SO WE BROUGHT CHC SHWRS FURTHER S INTO N CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA. FCST
MID LVL STEEP LAPSE RATES WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROF MAY
RESULT IN A FEW LATE AFTN LOW TOP TSTMS.
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A FEW SHWRS ENTERING FROM QB INTO NW
ME AND THEN INTO XTRM NE ME ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKER PRE-S/WV TO
THE ONE APCHG FROM SW QUEBEC LATER TDY. SUBSEQUENTLY...WE NEEDED
TO MOVE UP THE TM OF ISOLD SHWR CVRG TO THESE AREAS BY A FEW HRS.
IN REALITY...THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN SHWRS LATE THIS MORN INTO THE
MIDDAY HRS PRIOR TO THE SECOND S/WV...BUT THIS LVL OF TMG
RESOLUTION IS TO DIFFICULT TO SHOW IN THE GRIDS ATTM.
OTHERWISE...BASED ON A SLOWER TREND OF TEMP FALLS ACROSS THE
REGION ERLY THIS MORN THEN EARLIER ANTICIPATED...WE RAISED THE
CURRENT LOWS BY A DEG OR TWO F...AND THEN TRENDED THESE TEMPS AT 6
TO 7 AM TO MID MORN TEMPS.
ORGNL DISC: MODELS CONFIRMED BY SAT IMAGERY SHOW A FAST MOVG S/WV
NEAR THE CNTRL ONT/SW QUEBEC BORDER AREA ERLY THIS MORN CROSSING
NRN PTNS OF THE FA DURG THE LATE AFT HRS. SCT SHWRS FROM MID LVL
VORT ADVCN WITH THIS SYSTEM MAY BE HAVE ENOUGH INTENSITY TO
OVERCOME DRY LOW LVL AIR FOR LGT ISOLD TO SCT SHWRS TO REACH THE
GROUND FOR SPCLY NW PTNS OF THE FA FROM MID AFTN TO ERLY
EVE...WITH SRN PTNS OF THE FA EXPERIENCING JUST SOME INCREASE IN
SC CLD CVR DURG THIS TM FRAME.
AT LEAST PARTIAL CLD CVR WILL CONT ACROSS THE N OVRNGT AFT EVE
SHWRS DISSIPATE...WHILE THE REST OF THE FA EXPERIENCES CLRG.
DESPITE THIS CLRG...OVRNGT LOW TEMPS WILL BE HELD UP OVRNGT BY
MDTLY STRONG GRAD/BL WINDS...EVEN OVR THE NORMALLY COLDER NW VLYS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER IN STORE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH SEASONABLY
COOL TEMPERATURES AND GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. A POSSIBLE
SYSTEM COULD GRAZE THE DOWNEAST COAST ON SATURDAY. MODELS DEVELOP
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THEN TRACK IT
NORTHEAST. MAJORITY OF MODEL GUIDANCE HOWEVER KEEPS THE RAIN
OFFSHORE. ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY, THOUGH, THAT LEFT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN IN FOR COASTAL DOWNEAST FOR SATURDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. MILDER
ONSHORE FLOW THEN SETS UP MONDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST.
CONSIDERABLE AMPLIFICATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OCCURS JUST
EAST OF US TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL BRING A WARM AIRMASS OVER US FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, WE WON`T REACH OUR FULL WARMING POTENTIAL
SINCE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH AND OFF THE COOL
WATERS. STILL, LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE 60S WITH A FEW SPOTS REACHING
70 INLAND TUESDAY AND/OR WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO STEADILY
INCREASE MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY WORKS
ITS WAY CLOSER. A FAIR AMOUNT OF MODEL UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHEN THE
RAIN WILL ACTUALLY GET HERE. A CUTOFF LOW MAY FORM OVER THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WHICH MAY DELAY THE RAIN UNTIL WEDNESDAY
NIGHT OR THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR XPCTD...XCPT HI MVFR CLGS ATTMS OVR NRN MOST TAF
SITES...SPCLY KFVE.
SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A SMALL CHANCE
OF MVFR CEILINGS AT ANY TIME FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY OVER NORTHERN
TAF SITES FROM HOULTON NORTH. ALSO, A SMALL CHANCE OF MVFR
CEILINGS FOR BAR HARBOR ON SATURDAY AS A SYSTEM GRAZES THE AREA TO
THE SOUTH.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL CONT WITH SCA FOR OUR OUTER MZ WATERS TDY THRU
MOST OF TNGT FOR BOTH MARGINAL WINDS AND WV HTS...MEANING THERE
MAY BE INTERMITTENT HRS WHEN EITHER OR BOTH FIELDS MAY BE BELOW
SCA THRU THIS TM. WE USED BLENDED MODEL WINDS AND ABOUT 85 TO 90
PERCENT OF FCST WW3 WV HTS...WHICH BY ITSELF HAS BEEN OVERESTIMATING
WV HTS COMPARED TO OBSVD BUOY HTS OVR THE LAST DAY OR TWO.
SHORT TERM: WEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS ON FRIDAY TURN NORTHEAST ON
SATURDAY AND DECREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS AS A FAIRLY WEAK LOW
PASSES SOUTH OF THE WATERS. SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET ON FRIDAY DIMINISH TO
1 TO 2 FEET ON SATURDAY. FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ050-051.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...FOISY
AVIATION...VJN/FOISY
MARINE...VJN/FOISY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
303 PM CDT THU OCT 9 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT THU OCT 9 2014
THE NORTHLAND WILL REMAIN IN COOL NW FLOW THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND CENTRAL CANADA.
THERE HAS BEEN A CLEARING TREND THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE WIDESPREAD
OVC LOW CLOUDS THAT COVERED THE FORECAST AREA EARLIER TODAY. THIS
TREND SHOULD CONTINUE...BUT SATELLITE TRENDS AND MODEL LAYER RH
FIELDS INDICATE THE CLOUDY SKIES NORTH OF THE BORDER WILL MOVE
BACK INTO THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL BOLSTER
THE OVERNIGHT LOWS OVER THE NORTH AGAIN TONIGHT. THE SOUTHERN
FORECAST SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR...SO COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED THERE. THE COMBINATION OF CLEARING AND LIGHT WINDS
TONIGHT COULD PROMOTE FOG. HOWEVER...IT WILL DEPENDENT ON WEAK THE
WINDS GETS AND THE AMOUNT OF CLEARING. MODEL SURFACE CONDENSATION
PRESSURE DEFICITS ARE NOT VERY INDICATIVE OF FOG...EXCEPT FOR THE
LOCAL WRF...SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS POINT. THE EVENING SHIFT
WILL REEVALUATE THE NEED TO ADD FOG TO THE FORECAST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA
FRIDAY. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE LIKELY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MIDDLE 40S TO NEAR 50 DEGREES.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT THU OCT 9 2014
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER AND CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS MOST
OF THE NORTHLAND. A SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHLAND FRIDAY...LINGERING INTO FRIDAY EVENING...BUT IS
EXPECTED TO HAVE LITTLE IMPACT OTHER THAN SOME CLOUDS FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND AN UPPER WAVE WILL START TO IMPACT THE
NORTHLAND LATE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FURTHER SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN
SPREADING WEST TO EAST SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WE HAVE HIGHEST
POPS OVER WESTERN AREAS INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE UPPER WAVE/SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EAST MONDAY WITH A
SOUTHERN SYSTEM MOVING UP TOWARD SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN BY 00Z TUE.
THE CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE MONDAY...WITH THE BETTER
CHANCES SHIFTING INTO EASTERN AREAS.
WE HAVE A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN AREAS TUESDAY AS
THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA. RIDGING/HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY AND LAST INTO THURSDAY BRINGING ANOTHER
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A GRADUAL INCREASE FROM SATURDAY INTO NEXT
WEEK. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE FIFTIES SATURDAY TO
WARM TO THE MID FIFTIES TO LOWER SIXTIES BY THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT THU OCT 9 2014
BROKEN MVFR CEILINGS COVERED MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND AS OF EARLY
AFTERNOON. THERE WERE SOME SIGNS THAT THIS DECK WILL THIN AND
BECOME SCATTERED IN SPOTS THIS AFTERNOON. WE DO NOT EXPECT
WIDESPREAD CLEARING...OR FOR THE CLEARING TO LAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE RAP AND NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A LOWERING MVFR
DECK OF CLOUDS WILL MOVE BACK IN/DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHLAND LATER
TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN THIS HAPPENING IS LOWER THAN YESTERDAY AT
THIS TIME. AN INVERSION WAS AT LEAST PARTIALLY RESPONSIBLE FOR
THESE CLOUDS REMAINING. THE NAM DOES SHOW THIS INVERSION WEAKENING
TODAY...BUT STILL HAS AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL RH. WE HAVE MVFR
CLOUDS IN ALL TAFS TONIGHT...BUT ONLY IN A TEMPO GROUP AT KBRD
WHICH SEEM THE MOST REMOVED FROM THE LOW LEVEL RH.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 33 47 33 52 / 0 0 0 0
INL 33 45 29 55 / 10 10 0 0
BRD 32 50 29 56 / 0 0 0 0
HYR 30 51 25 53 / 0 0 0 0
ASX 34 49 33 53 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...MELDE
UPDATED FOR NEW AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT THU OCT 9 2014
LARGE DEEP CIRCULATION OVER ONTARIO CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SHIFT EAST
WITH SFC RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM WRN CANADA. ANIMATION
OF RUC40 85/50H RH SHOWS THAT DEEP LAYER DRYING CONTINUES TO MOVE
INTO WRN CWA WITH ADVANCE OF MID LVL RIDGING OVER NRN PLAINS. 30H
JET CORE STRETCHES FROM SERN MANITOBA TO UPPER PENINSULA OF
MICHIGAN. A LARGE AREA OF MVFR STRATUS IS SLIPPING SOUTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER INTO ADJACENT NRN MN CWA. THIS APPEARS TO BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE 85H THERMAL TROUGH. TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION ARE
CONTINUING TO DROP BELOW CLIMO VALUES IN MOST AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT THU OCT 9 2014
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE REGION DESPITE THE EJECTION OF THE MID LVL LOW OVER ONTARIO. AN
AMPLIFYING MID LVL RIDGE WILL PROVIDE INCREASING SUBSIDENCE OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST. SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL MOVE FROM SRN SASK INTO WRN MN
BY LATE FRIDAY. A BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH DRY FCST MAINTAINED IN GRIDS. MAJORITY OF CLOUDS WILL
OCCUR ACROSS ARROWHEAD TODAY WHERE LOW LVL COND PRESS DEFICITS
DECREASE. ALTHOUGH GUSTY WINDS WILL REDEVELOP TODAY WITH DIURNAL
HEATING...THE MAGNITUDE WILL CONTINUE A DECREASING TREND FROM
PREVIOUS DAYS. TEMPS REMAIN BLO CLIMO.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT THU OCT 9 2014
THE EXTENDED TIME PERIOD WILL START OUT ON A QUIET NOTE...AS HIGH
PRESSURE BRINGS DRY WEATHER FOR THE PERIOD FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. LOWS ON FRIDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S.
RECOVERY INTO THE 50S IS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY WITH A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE EXPECTED. THE WEATHER WILL CHANGE CONSIDERABLY STARTING ON
SUNDAY...AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...AS THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL CARVE ITSELF OUT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
SUNDAY...AND SWEEP EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. THE GFS/GEM AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP UP POPS FROM
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A MAJOR UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN
DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES FROM TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED TIME PERIOD
WILL BE IN THE 50S. WE COULD SEE SOME 60S TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT THU OCT 9 2014
BROKEN MVFR CEILINGS COVERED MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND AS OF EARLY
AFTERNOON. THERE WERE SOME SIGNS THAT THIS DECK WILL THIN AND
BECOME SCATTERED IN SPOTS THIS AFTERNOON. WE DO NOT EXPECT
WIDESPREAD CLEARING...OR FOR THE CLEARING TO LAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE RAP AND NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A LOWERING MVFR
DECK OF CLOUDS WILL MOVE BACK IN/DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHLAND LATER
TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN THIS HAPPENING IS LOWER THAN YESTERDAY AT
THIS TIME. AN INVERSION WAS AT LEAST PARTIALLY RESPONSIBLE FOR
THESE CLOUDS REMAINING. THE NAM DOES SHOW THIS INVERSION WEAKENING
TODAY...BUT STILL HAS AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL RH. WE HAVE MVFR
CLOUDS IN ALL TAFS TONIGHT...BUT ONLY IN A TEMPO GROUP AT KBRD
WHICH SEEM THE MOST REMOVED FROM THE LOW LEVEL RH.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 48 33 47 31 / 0 0 0 0
INL 45 34 46 27 / 10 10 10 0
BRD 50 31 51 30 / 0 0 0 0
HYR 51 29 51 28 / 0 0 0 0
ASX 50 35 49 31 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ121-
146>148.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GROCHOCINSKI
SYNOPSIS...CANNON
SHORT TERM...CANNON
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...MELDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON MS
1035 AM CDT THU OCT 9 2014
.UPDATE...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED THE REGION
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LOW LEVEL MEAN RIDGE CENTER OVER THE
SOUTHEAST US. LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW WAS NOTED ACROSS THE REGION. THE
BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WAS NOTED SOUTH AND WEST OF THE REGION. FLAT
MEAN RIDGING WITH WEST NORTHWEST FLOW...WAS NOTED IN THE MID AND
UPPER LEVELS. IT LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER WARM DAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH
850 TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE TEENS AND 925 TEMPS IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS
WILL PUSH TO AROUND 90. ALSO THE BEST WEAK MOISTURE TRANSPORT WAS
NOTED ACROSS THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS LATE THIS MORNING. THE
SHORT TERM MODELS AND WRF GUIDANCE SHOWS THE BEST LIMITED CHANCE OF
RAIN WILL BE IN THE WEST AND SOUTH FOR TODAY. MOISTURE TRANSPORT
WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE BEST IN THE WEST. ALSO THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHWEST. SO WILL KEEP
CURRENT HIGHS AND POPS./17/
./PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...435 AM CDT THU OCT 9 2014
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
FAIRLY QUIET SHORT TERM OUTSIDE DENSE FOG POSSIBILITIES WITH WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS AREA
REMAINS SOUTH OF A STATIONARY BOUNDARY.
DENSE FOG IS BEING OBSERVED AT A FEW SELECT SPOTS MAINLY ALONG RIVER
VALLEYS IN FAR SOUTH MS AND WHERE HIGH CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED OUT MORE.
SOME CONTINUED HIGH CLOUD PRESENCE WILL LIKELY CURTAIL OVERALL DENSE
FOG EXTENT POSSIBILITIES FROM WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT WITH MAIN
AREA CONFINED ALONG THE HIGHWAY 59 CORRIDOR IN SE MS. WILL MAINTAIN
GOING DENSE FOG ADVISORY BUT A REDUCTION IN AREA ALONG THE WESTERN
AND NORTHERN TIERS MAY BE NEEDED BY 6-7AM DEPENDING ON TRENDS. FOG
AND LOW STRATUS WILL MIX OUT BY 8-10AM WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY
CLOUDY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
LOW-LVL RIDGING WILL BE EAST OF REGION BY THIS AFTERNOON AND AID IN
S/SW WIND FETCH BRINGING 1.5-1.6" PWATS BACK INTO REGION. THIS ABOVE
NORMAL MOISTURE (+1.5 SD) WILL COMBINE WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER IN SW/S MS AND NE LA.
EAST AREAS WILL LIKELY HAVE TOO LOW OF A MOISTURE/INSTABILITY COMBO
TO SUPPORT ACTIVITY. EXPECT A QUIET OVERNIGHT WITH SHOWERS
DISSIPATING BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG/STRATUS WILL LIKELY OCCUR
FRIDAY MORNING AND TRENDS WILL NEED TO MONITORED FOR DENSE
POSSIBILITIES. SLIGHTLY GREATER SHOWER AND WEAK THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
EXPECTED FRIDAY AS A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE SLIDES SOUTH TOWARDS THE
I-40 CORRIDOR IN CONJUNCTION WITH INCREASING WINDS ALOFT. GREATER
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL PICK UP IN FAR NW AREAS
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS STRONGER TROUGHING AND
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PIVOT OVER AR/TN WHERE GREATEST
CONCENTRATION OF RAIN WILL BE SITUATED.
FOR FORECAST ELEMENTS...LOWS WHERE BUMPED UP THIS MORNING GIVEN HIGH
CLOUDS AND MAVMOS LOW TEMPS WERE INCREASED BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
GIVEN NWP DEWPOINT FIELDS. MAVMOS POPS WERE INCREASED FOR THIS
AFTERNOON GIVEN HI-RES WRF AND HRRR OUTPUT. /ALLEN/
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND ESPECIALLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS BY MID NEXT WEEK...BUT THERE IS QUITE A
SPREAD IN TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. SPLIT FLOW
REGIME WILL BE IN PLACE SATURDAY WITH A SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH
UPSTREAM OF OUR CWA AND A QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY DRAPED
ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI. A 1024MB HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST FROM THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION NUDGING THE
BOUNDARY A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH INTO OUR CWA. THE BOUNDARY WILL SAG
INTO OUR CWA WHILE THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES. A RATHER MOIST
AIRMASS WITH PWS AROUND 1.70IN WILL RESIDE OVER OUR CWA AND SERVE TO
FUEL CONVECTION ALONG THE BOUNDARY INTO SUNDAY. A RETREATING SURFACE
RIDGE ALONG THE EASTERN GULF COAST AND MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL LIMIT COVERAGE OVER OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES.
GREATEST POPS WILL BE CARRIED OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA
THROUGH SUNDAY. RAINFALL AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT
INSOLATION THROUGH SUNDAY. THE 00Z GFS MOS TEMPERATURES WERE AMONG
THE WARMEST ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SO GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS WERE LEANED TOWARD
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A POTENT
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL BE DROPPING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST CONUS
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. THE GFS DIFFERS FROM THE ECMWF IN CLOSING OFF A LOW OVER THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY TUESDAY MORNING WHILE THE ECMWF CLOSES OFF
A LOW BY WEDNESDAY MORNING NEAR THE OHIO VALLEY. CONFIDENCE IS ALSO
GROWING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT ATLEAST OVER THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA. EARLY INDICATIONS ARE THAT TWO TO FOUR
INCHES OF RAIN COULD FALL OVER OUR NORTHWEST DURING THIS TIME AND DUE
TO ANTICIPATED STRONG KINEMATIC FIELDS...DAMAGING WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY
THE STRONGEST STORMS. THE GFS MAY BE A LITTLE FAST IN MOVING THE
ACTIVITY INTO OUR CWA AND SLOWER TIMING WILL RESULT IN LESS
INSTABILITY. WL HOLD OFF INTRODUCING MENTION IN HWO TONIGHT. COOLER
AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE CWA TUESDAY AND THE RAIN SHOULD BE
OVER BY MIDNIGHT. GFS MOS TEMPERATURES WERE AMONG THE COOLEST
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HAVE LEANED
TOWARD A SLOWER TROUGH PROGRESSION OF THE ECMWF AND WARMER GFS
ENSEMBLE TEMPERATURES THOUGH THIS PERIOD. MID LEVEL RIDGING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WILL COMBINE WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR
NORTHEAST FOR WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER THURSDAY. /22/
&&
..AVIATION...THE FOG/LOW STRATUS IS BURNING OFF THIS AM AND LOOK FOR
VFR CONDITIONS TO EXIST FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING. THERE WILL BE SOME ISO SHRA ACROSS THE SW PORTIONS...BUT
THE REST OF THE AREA LOOK TO BE PRECIP FREE. THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE
ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS AGAIN TONIGHT ALONG WITH SOME FOG. THE
FOG LOOKS TO BE CONFIDED TO THE FAR E/SE (HBG/MEI) WHILE THE REST OF
THE AREA LOOKS TO GET MORE INTO THE IFR CEILINGS BETWEEN 08-15Z FRI.
/CME/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 90 69 88 69 / 10 10 16 20
MERIDIAN 90 67 89 67 / 10 10 15 17
VICKSBURG 90 70 88 68 / 18 10 18 23
HATTIESBURG 90 68 90 68 / 19 10 14 14
NATCHEZ 87 71 86 69 / 29 10 19 14
GREENVILLE 90 70 87 67 / 16 12 24 50
GREENWOOD 90 68 87 66 / 10 14 24 43
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
17/ALLEN/22/CME
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON MS
915 AM CDT THU OCT 9 2014
.UPDATE...HAVE ALLOWED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AND HAVE
REMOVED MORNING FOG FROM THE GRIDS THE REST OF FORECAST SEEMS TO BE
ON TRACK./17/
./PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...435 AM CDT THU OCT 9 2014
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
FAIRLY QUIET SHORT TERM OUTSIDE DENSE FOG POSSIBILITIES WITH WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS AREA
REMAINS SOUTH OF A STATIONARY BOUNDARY.
DENSE FOG IS BEING OBSERVED AT A FEW SELECT SPOTS MAINLY ALONG RIVER
VALLEYS IN FAR SOUTH MS AND WHERE HIGH CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED OUT MORE.
SOME CONTINUED HIGH CLOUD PRESENCE WILL LIKELY CURTAIL OVERALL DENSE
FOG EXTENT POSSIBILITIES FROM WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT WITH MAIN
AREA CONFINED ALONG THE HIGHWAY 59 CORRIDOR IN SE MS. WILL MAINTAIN
GOING DENSE FOG ADVISORY BUT A REDUCTION IN AREA ALONG THE WESTERN
AND NORTHERN TIERS MAY BE NEEDED BY 6-7AM DEPENDING ON TRENDS. FOG
AND LOW STRATUS WILL MIX OUT BY 8-10AM WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY
CLOUDY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
LOW-LVL RIDGING WILL BE EAST OF REGION BY THIS AFTERNOON AND AID IN
S/SW WIND FETCH BRINGING 1.5-1.6" PWATS BACK INTO REGION. THIS ABOVE
NORMAL MOISTURE (+1.5 SD) WILL COMBINE WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER IN SW/S MS AND NE LA.
EAST AREAS WILL LIKELY HAVE TOO LOW OF A MOISTURE/INSTABILITY COMBO
TO SUPPORT ACTIVITY. EXPECT A QUIET OVERNIGHT WITH SHOWERS
DISSIPATING BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG/STRATUS WILL LIKELY OCCUR
FRIDAY MORNING AND TRENDS WILL NEED TO MONITORED FOR DENSE
POSSIBILITIES. SLIGHTLY GREATER SHOWER AND WEAK THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
EXPECTED FRIDAY AS A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE SLIDES SOUTH TOWARDS THE
I-40 CORRIDOR IN CONJUNCTION WITH INCREASING WINDS ALOFT. GREATER
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL PICK UP IN FAR NW AREAS
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS STRONGER TROUGHING AND
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PIVOT OVER AR/TN WHERE GREATEST
CONCENTRATION OF RAIN WILL BE SITUATED.
FOR FORECAST ELEMENTS...LOWS WHERE BUMPED UP THIS MORNING GIVEN HIGH
CLOUDS AND MAVMOS LOW TEMPS WERE INCREASED BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
GIVEN NWP DEWPOINT FIELDS. MAVMOS POPS WERE INCREASED FOR THIS
AFTERNOON GIVEN HI-RES WRF AND HRRR OUTPUT. /ALLEN/
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND ESPECIALLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS BY MID NEXT WEEK...BUT THERE IS QUITE A
SPREAD IN TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. SPLIT FLOW
REGIME WILL BE IN PLACE SATURDAY WITH A SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH
UPSTREAM OF OUR CWA AND A QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY DRAPED
ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI. A 1024MB HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST FROM THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION NUDGING THE
BOUNDARY A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH INTO OUR CWA. THE BOUNDARY WILL SAG
INTO OUR CWA WHILE THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES. A RATHER MOIST
AIRMASS WITH PWS AROUND 1.70IN WILL RESIDE OVER OUR CWA AND SERVE TO
FUEL CONVECTION ALONG THE BOUNDARY INTO SUNDAY. A RETREATING SURFACE
RIDGE ALONG THE EASTERN GULF COAST AND MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL LIMIT COVERAGE OVER OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES.
GREATEST POPS WILL BE CARRIED OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA
THROUGH SUNDAY. RAINFALL AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT
INSOLATION THROUGH SUNDAY. THE 00Z GFS MOS TEMPERATURES WERE AMONG
THE WARMEST ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SO GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS WERE LEANED TOWARD
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A POTENT
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL BE DROPPING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST CONUS
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. THE GFS DIFFERS FROM THE ECMWF IN CLOSING OFF A LOW OVER THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY TUESDAY MORNING WHILE THE ECMWF CLOSES OFF
A LOW BY WEDNESDAY MORNING NEAR THE OHIO VALLEY. CONFIDENCE IS ALSO
GROWING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT ATLEAST OVER THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA. EARLY INDICATIONS ARE THAT TWO TO FOUR
INCHES OF RAIN COULD FALL OVER OUR NORTHWEST DURING THIS TIME AND DUE
TO ANTICIPATED STRONG KINEMATIC FIELDS...DAMAGING WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY
THE STRONGEST STORMS. THE GFS MAY BE A LITTLE FAST IN MOVING THE
ACTIVITY INTO OUR CWA AND SLOWER TIMING WILL RESULT IN LESS
INSTABILITY. WL HOLD OFF INTRODUCING MENTION IN HWO TONIGHT. COOLER
AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE CWA TUESDAY AND THE RAIN SHOULD BE
OVER BY MIDNIGHT. GFS MOS TEMPERATURES WERE AMONG THE COOLEST
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HAVE LEANED
TOWARD A SLOWER TROUGH PROGRESSION OF THE ECMWF AND WARMER GFS
ENSEMBLE TEMPERATURES THOUGH THIS PERIOD. MID LEVEL RIDGING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WILL COMBINE WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR
NORTHEAST FOR WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER THURSDAY. /22/
&&
.AVIATION...FOG WAS LIFTING AS OF MIDMORNING. A FEW SHRA EXPECTED
THIS AFTN BUT BEST AREAS WILL BE IN SW MS AND NE LA EARLY TO
LATE AFTERNOON. 17/ALLEN/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 90 69 88 69 / 10 10 16 20
MERIDIAN 90 67 89 67 / 10 10 15 17
VICKSBURG 90 70 88 68 / 18 10 18 23
HATTIESBURG 90 68 90 68 / 19 10 14 14
NATCHEZ 87 71 86 69 / 29 10 19 14
GREENVILLE 90 70 87 67 / 16 12 24 50
GREENWOOD 90 68 87 66 / 10 14 24 43
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
17/ALLEN/22
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON MS
435 AM CDT THU OCT 9 2014
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
FAIRLY QUIET SHORT TERM OUTSIDE DENSE FOG POSSIBILITIES WITH WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS AREA
REMAINS SOUTH OF A STATIONARY BOUNDARY.
DENSE FOG IS BEING OBSERVED AT A FEW SELECT SPOTS MAINLY ALONG RIVER
VALLEYS IN FAR SOUTH MS AND WHERE HIGH CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED OUT MORE.
SOME CONTINUED HIGH CLOUD PRESENCE WILL LIKELY CURTAIL OVERALL DENSE
FOG EXTENT POSSIBILITIES FROM WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT WITH MAIN
AREA CONFINED ALONG THE HIGHWAY 59 CORRIDOR IN SE MS. WILL MAINTAIN
GOING DENSE FOG ADVISORY BUT A REDUCTION IN AREA ALONG THE WESTERN
AND NORTHERN TIERS MAY BE NEEDED BY 6-7AM DEPENDING ON TRENDS. FOG
AND LOW STRATUS WILL MIX OUT BY 8-10AM WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY
CLOUDY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
LOW-LVL RIDGING WILL BE EAST OF REGION BY THIS AFTERNOON AND AID IN
S/SW WIND FETCH BRINGING 1.5-1.6" PWATS BACK INTO REGION. THIS ABOVE
NORMAL MOISTURE (+1.5 SD) WILL COMBINE WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER IN SW/S MS AND NE LA.
EAST AREAS WILL LIKELY HAVE TOO LOW OF A MOISTURE/INSTABILITY COMBO
TO SUPPORT ACTIVITY. EXPECT A QUIET OVERNIGHT WITH SHOWERS
DISSIPATING BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG/STRATUS WILL LIKELY OCCUR
FRIDAY MORNING AND TRENDS WILL NEED TO MONITORED FOR DENSE
POSSIBILITIES. SLIGHTLY GREATER SHOWER AND WEAK THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
EXPECTED FRIDAY AS A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE SLIDES SOUTH TOWARDS THE
I-40 CORRIDOR IN CONJUNCTION WITH INCREASING WINDS ALOFT. GREATER
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL PICK UP IN FAR NW AREAS
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS STRONGER TROUGHING AND
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PIVOT OVER AR/TN WHERE GREATEST
CONCENTRATION OF RAIN WILL BE SITUATED.
FOR FORECAST ELEMENTS...LOWS WHERE BUMPED UP THIS MORNING GIVEN HIGH
CLOUDS AND MAVMOS LOW TEMPS WERE INCREASED BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
GIVEN NWP DEWPOINT FIELDS. MAVMOS POPS WERE INCREASED FOR THIS
AFTERNOON GIVEN HI-RES WRF AND HRRR OUTPUT. /ALLEN/
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND ESPECIALLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS BY MID NEXT WEEK...BUT THERE IS QUITE A
SPREAD IN TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. SPLIT FLOW
REGIME WILL BE IN PLACE SATURDAY WITH A SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH
UPSTREAM OF OUR CWA AND A QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY DRAPED
ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI. A 1024MB HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST FROM THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION NUDGING THE
BOUNDARY A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH INTO OUR CWA. THE BOUNDARY WILL SAG
INTO OUR CWA WHILE THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES. A RATHER MOIST
AIRMASS WITH PWS AROUND 1.70IN WILL RESIDE OVER OUR CWA AND SERVE TO
FUEL CONVECTION ALONG THE BOUNDARY INTO SUNDAY. A RETREATING SURFACE
RIDGE ALONG THE EASTERN GULF COAST AND MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL LIMIT COVERAGE OVER OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES.
GREATEST POPS WILL BE CARRIED OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA
THROUGH SUNDAY. RAINFALL AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT
INSOLATION THROUGH SUNDAY. THE 00Z GFS MOS TEMPERATURES WERE AMONG
THE WARMEST ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SO GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS WERE LEANED TOWARD
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A POTENT
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL BE DROPPING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST CONUS
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. THE GFS DIFFERS FROM THE ECMWF IN CLOSING OFF A LOW OVER THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY TUESDAY MORNING WHILE THE ECMWF CLOSES OFF
A LOW BY WEDNESDAY MORNING NEAR THE OHIO VALLEY. CONFIDENCE IS ALSO
GROWING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT ATLEAST OVER THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA. EARLY INDICATIONS ARE THAT TWO TO FOUR
INCHES OF RAIN COULD FALL OVER OUR NORTHWEST DURING THIS TIME AND DUE
TO ANTICIPATED STRONG KINEMATIC FIELDS...DAMAGING WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY
THE STRONGEST STORMS. THE GFS MAY BE A LITTLE FAST IN MOVING THE
ACTIVITY INTO OUR CWA AND SLOWER TIMING WILL RESULT IN LESS
INSTABILITY. WL HOLD OFF INTRODUCING MENTION IN HWO TONIGHT. COOLER
AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE CWA TUESDAY AND THE RAIN SHOULD BE
OVER BY MIDNIGHT. GFS MOS TEMPERATURES WERE AMONG THE COOLEST
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HAVE LEANED
TOWARD A SLOWER TROUGH PROGRESSION OF THE ECMWF AND WARMER GFS
ENSEMBLE TEMPERATURES THOUGH THIS PERIOD. MID LEVEL RIDGING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WILL COMBINE WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR
NORTHEAST FOR WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER THURSDAY. /22/
&&
.AVIATION...VLIFR CONDITIONS ONGOING AT KHBG AND KGTR WITH 1/4 TO 1/2
MILE FOG BEING REPORTED ALONG WITH LOW CEILINGS. ELSEWHERE, VFR
CONDITIONS ARE ONGOING BUT PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KMEI AND
KJAN AREAS THROUGH 13-14Z LEADING TO MVFR TO BRIEF IFR. ALL AREAS
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE THROUGH MID MORNING TO VFR THROUGH REMAINDER OF
DAY UNTIL ANOTHER ROUND OF IFR TO LVIFR FOG FRIDAY MORNING. A FEW
SHRA EXPECTED THIS AFTN AND MAY INCLUDE VCSH IN 12Z TAFS FOR KJAN BUT
BEST AREAS WILL BE IN SW MS AND NE LA EARLY TO LATE AFTERNOON. /ALLEN/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 90 69 88 69 / 10 10 16 20
MERIDIAN 90 67 89 67 / 10 10 15 17
VICKSBURG 90 70 88 68 / 18 10 18 23
HATTIESBURG 90 68 90 68 / 19 10 14 14
NATCHEZ 87 71 86 69 / 29 10 19 14
GREENVILLE 90 70 87 67 / 16 12 24 50
GREENWOOD 90 68 87 66 / 10 14 24 43
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MSZ052-
054>058-062>066-072>074.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
ALLEN/22
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
936 AM MDT THU OCT 9 2014
.UPDATE...
MADE A FEW MORE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS
EVENING. RADAR SHOWED A BAND/AREA OF WEAK SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH
THE NW AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. POTENT SHORTWAVE
WAS SEEN OVER ID MOVING INTO MT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...SPREADING
LIFT INTO THE AREA. IN ADDITION...WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT...RIGHT-
REAR QUADRANT OF UPPER JET AND LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WERE
PROVIDING ADDITIONAL LIFT OVER THE REGION. NONE OF THE MODELS HAD
A GOOD HANDLE ON WHERE THE PRECIPITATION WAS OCCURRING THIS
MORNING. THE ECMWF WAS THE CLOSEST...IN THAT IT SPREAD A BAND OF
QPF SE THROUGH THE CENTRAL PART OF THE AREA THROUGH 18Z. GIVEN THE
ABOVE...HAVE BLENDED POPS WITH RADAR TRENDS AND THE ECMWF FORECAST
THROUGH THIS EVENING. RAP MODEL SHOWED LIFTED INDICES FALLING
BELOW ZERO DEGREES C OVER WESTERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. KLVM
BUFKIT SOUNDING FROM 06Z WRF SHOWED SOME INSTABILITY IN THE MID
AND UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES SO HAVE INCLUDED THUNDER IN THESE
AREAS. REMOVED THUNDER FROM KSHR AREA WHICH LOOKED TOO STABLE.
MODELS HAD THE JET ENERGY EXITING THIS EVENING...BUT ANOTHER JET
FURTHER N THAT COULD STILL AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA. THE SHORTWAVE
WILL STILL BE MOVING SLOWLY E THROUGH THE AREA WHILE
WEAKENING...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THESE FACTORS WILL SUPPORT SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING.
LOWERED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY TODAY DUE TO LIMITED MIXING...CLOUD
COVER AND LATEST MET GUIDANCE. ARTHUR
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND FRI...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A DECENT SHORT
WAVE IN THE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. POTENTIAL VORTICITY PROGGS HAVE A 2-4 PVU
CENTER CROSSING OUR AREA AND APPEARS TO GENERATE A GOOD POCKET OF
Q VECTOR FORCING. THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE THE ADDED BENEFIT OF AN
EASTERLY SURFACE WIND SO DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS ARE MITIGATED. THE
MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AS CROSS SECTIONS SHOW SATURATED LEVELS ARE RATHER HIGH
ABOVE 650 MB. COMING DOWN THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE RIDGE ALSO SEEMS
TO WEAKEN THE SHORT WAVE A BIT. THEREFORE...I EXPECT TO SEE SOME
RADAR RETURNS BUT AM SOMEWHAT SKEPTICAL HOW MUCH MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR. SO WHILE I HAVE INCREASED AREAL COVERAGE
OF POPS...I HAVE ALSO KEPT THEM ON THE LOW SIDE. THERE ALSO SEEMS
TO BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO CONTINUE INCLUDING A MENTION OF
THUNDER ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
FOR FRIDAY...SOME WEAK ENERGY WILL CONTINUE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW
AND HAVE CONTINUED TO LINGER POPS OVER OUR SOUTHEAST WITH JUST
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. TEMPS SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN TODAY
OVERALL WITH LESS CLOUD COVER. BT
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...
SATURDAY LEADING EDGE OF A STRONG JET BEGINS PUSHING THROUGH
SOUTHWEST MONTANA CAUSING STRONG LEESIDE TROUGHING ALL THE WAY
THROUGH WYOMING WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH PUSHED INTO CENTRAL AND
EASTERN MONTANA. THIS WILL BRING A WINDY AND WARM DAY WITH WINDS
EXTENDING ACROSS THE REGION AND NOT NECESSARILY FAVORING GAP FLOW
AREAS. COLD FRONT TRACKS INTO THE AREA DURING THE EVENING HOURS
WITH THE AIRMASS MOISTENING UP POST FRONTAL. CYCLONIC FLOW
ALREADY SHIFTING SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT SO THE WINDOW FOR
PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY IS PRETTY FLEETING AND DO
NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY AMOUNTS ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF A
LIVINGSTON TO RED LODGE TO BROADUS LINE. SUNDAY WILL BE COOLER BUT
STILL NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
BY MONDAY NEXT RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH LEESIDE
TROFFING BY TUESDAY BRINING ANOTHER SHOT AT THE 70S. RIDGE SHIFTS
EASTWARD INTO THE DAKOTAS ON WEDNESDAY BUT NEXT TROUGH PASSAGE
THROUGH THE AREA LOOKS TO BE SLOWER AND NOT AS DEEP AS CURRENT
SYSTEM SO TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
BORSUM
&&
.AVIATION...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL IMPACT MUCH OF THE REGION
TODAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...BUT LOCALIZED MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS. AAG
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 060 042/065 049/071 045/057 038/056 040/062 046/066
2/W 21/B 01/B 22/W 11/B 11/N 11/U
LVM 063 039/068 044/068 040/054 034/056 038/064 040/059
2/T 21/B 04/W 32/W 21/B 11/N 21/B
HDN 065 040/067 045/074 042/061 035/059 037/066 044/071
2/W 21/B 01/B 32/W 21/B 11/N 11/U
MLS 062 039/067 045/072 043/062 036/058 036/066 043/069
2/W 21/B 01/B 11/B 21/B 11/N 11/U
4BQ 060 041/066 045/073 043/058 035/055 034/065 043/069
2/W 32/W 01/B 42/W 21/U 11/B 11/U
BHK 056 034/059 042/070 040/059 033/053 032/060 040/066
0/B 11/B 11/B 21/N 21/U 11/N 11/U
SHR 064 041/067 042/073 039/054 032/055 029/064 041/068
2/W 21/B 01/B 43/W 21/B 11/U 11/B
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
356 AM CDT THU OCT 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT THU OCT 9 2014
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS LOCATED NEAR THE THE UTAH
AND ARIZONA BORDER. ABUNDANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDS ACROSS
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THE MAIN AREA
OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO WEST
TEXAS. A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM SASKATCHEWAN
CANADA INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ATTM FROM FAR NERN KS/FAR SERN NEBR INTO
CENTRAL MISSOURI AND ALSO ACROSS PORTIONS OF IOWA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT THU OCT 9 2014
A BACKDOOR COOL FRONT WILL EXIST ACROSS NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN
KANSAS TODAY WITH THE MAIN WARM FRONT SETTLING SOUTH TO NEAR THE
KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MID AND HIGH
CLOUDINESS WILL COMBINE FOR A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES WHILE LESS CLOUDINESS
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TODAY. HIGHS TODAY WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD
COVER. PREFER A BLEND OF THE MET AND MAV GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS 60-62
NCTRL AND 63-66 CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS TO
BECOME MAINLY EAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS TODAY AS THE SURFACE FRONT SAGS SOUTH TODAY.
WHILE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS
COLORADO AND KANSAS TODAY...MUCH OF NEBRASKA WILL BE INFLUENCED
BY THE NORTHERN STREAM...WITH STEERING WINDS FROM THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH. PREFER THE NAM MODEL SOLUTION KEEPING SHOWER
CHANCES SOUTH OF THE NEBRASKA STATE LINE THROUGH TONIGHT. WILL
STILL KEEP AT LEAST A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE TONIGHT FOR FAR
SWRN COUNTIES STILL SUPPORTED BY THE ECMWF AND TO SOME DEGREES BY
THE GFS. LOWS TONIGHT FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTHEAST TO NEAR 45 FAR
SOUTHWEST.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT THU OCT 9 2014
FRIDAY A LOW WILL BE SLIDING EAST ACROSS COLORADO AND KANSAS
PRODUCING SHOWERS...MEANWHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH ACROSS
NORTHERN PLAINS. MODELS HAVE TRENDED STRONGER WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE...WITH LESS CONFIDENCE SHOWERS WILL MAKE IT MUCH INTO
SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. THE EC AND THE GEM CONTINUE TO BRING QPF UP TO
NEAR I80...HOWEVER THE NAM AND GFS KEEP IT IN KS. ALSO LOOKING
LIKE THE DRY AIR WITH THE HIGH WILL BE TOUGH TO OVERCOME...EVEN
WITH THE UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
BY FRIDAY NIGHT THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH TO THE EAST WITH
ANY LINGERING PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW TO BE SOUTHEAST OF
THE CWA. WHILE THE HIGH IS NOT DIRECTLY OVERHEAD /CENTER TO THE
EAST/ TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 30S WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS.
OVER THE WEEKEND A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION.
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL BE A WARM UP FOR SATURDAY WITH HIGHS
INTO THE 60S WITH THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE WEST NEARING 70. BY
SATURDAY NIGHT INCREASING CLOUDS WILL HELP HOLD LOWS IN THE 40S.
WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME DRY AIR INITIALLY...ALTHOUGH SOUTHERLY
WINDS TO HELP...BUT MORE TO COME FROM THE PACIFIC..TOP DOWN.
PRECIP ACROSS THE FAR NW COULD BEGIN AS EARLY AS SATURDAY EVENING.
THEN SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND EXPECT SOME CLOUDS...BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON POST FRONTAL PRECIP COVERAGE. IT MAY END UP BEING
MORE SPRINKLES WITH ISOLD SHOWERS. BY SUNDAY NIGHT DRY AIR FILLS
IN WITH AN END OF THE PRECIP.
NEXT WEEK WILL SEE A RIDGE BUILD ACROSS THE WEST THEN SHIFT
ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL RESULT IN A NICE WARM UP THROUGH
MID WEEK...LOWER TO MID 70S BY WEDNESDAY. PRECIP CHANCES ARE
GENERALLY LOW...ALTHOUGH NW FLOW AHEAD OF THE RIDGE AXIS WILL
BRING A DISTURBANCE OR TWO ACROSS THE AREA EARLY ON. AT THIS TIME
FAVORING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUDS BUT COLUMN IS FAIRLY DRY AND
FORECAST REMAINS DRY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT WED OCT 8 2014
VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.
A STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE SWRN U.S. WILL AFFECT KS THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING. ANY MVFR/IFR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA.
THERE IS ALSO A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS THIS
EVENING AND THE NAM AND THE RAP ATTEMPT TO GENERATE A NARROW BAND
OF MVFR/IFR CIGS ALONG THE FRONT AS IT APPROACHES OR ENTERS NRN
NEB THURSDAY MORNING 13Z-15Z. THIS SEEMS OVERDONE GIVEN THE
LIMITED MOISTURE BUT THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE...5 PERCENT...THAT
THESE LOW CEILINGS WILL FORM ACROSS NCNTL NEB THURSDAY MORNING.
IF THE CEILINGS DEVELOP...VFR WOULD DEVELOP AROUND 21Z.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1145 PM CDT WED OCT 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT WED OCT 8 2014
PERSISTENT...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER NWRN ONTARIO...IS
FINALLY BEGINNING TO SHIFT SLOWLY TO THE EAST TDY. AS OF THE 12Z
UA ANALYSIS...THIS FEATURE WAS LOCATED OVER NORTH CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF ONTARIO. FIFTY TO SEVENTY METER HT FALLS EXTENDED FROM THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND. FIFTY TO 90 METER RISES
WERE NOTED FROM NERN SD INTO WEST VIRGINIA. A JET STREAK EXTENDED
FROM SRN ALBERTA INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND.
ACROSS THE SWRN CONUS...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WAS SPINNING
OFF THE COAST OF SAN DIEGO WITH THE REMNANTS OF TS SIMON ACROSS
ARIZONA. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE REMNANTS OF
TS SIMON...HAS PUSHED NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
ROCKIES...AS WELL AS THE CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS TDY. THIS HAS LED
TO ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUDINESS ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN
NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 PM CDT RANGED FROM
68 AT NORTH PLATTE...TO 72 AT VALENTINE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT WED OCT 8 2014
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA FROM A LINE OCCURRING SPENCER SOUTHWEST TOWARDS AMEILA AND
POINTS EASTWARD. CONFIDENCE IS NOT GREAT THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THIS AREA BUT HAVE LEFT CHANCES IN SINCE ENVIRONMENT
IS STILL MARGINALLY FAVORABLE. WEAK FRONTOGENESIS STILL REMAINS
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WHICH IN COMBINATION WITH THE NOSE OF
THE JET SITUATED ACROSS EASTERN SD AND WESTERN IOWA PUTS THIS REGION
IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION AND MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO INITIATE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
DECIDED TO LOWER TEMPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST...TRENDED MORE TO THE ECMWF MODEL FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS AS
THIS SEEM TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE COOLER AIR MOVING IN
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS DID NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE
SKY COVERAGE FOR TONIGHT AND FELT IT DID NOT BRING STRATUS DECK FAR
ENOUGH NORTH ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. KEPT TEMPERATURES
SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FORECAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA DUE TO
EXPECTED CLOUD COVERAGE.
NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN ARRIVES THURS LATE AFTERNOON FOR EXTREME SW NEB
AS THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE SIMON CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. DECIDED TO TREND BACK ON POPS FOR
THURS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF SW NEBRASKA AS THE BEST FRONTOGENESIS
APPEARS TO BE FARTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS RUNS SUGGESTED KEEPING
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS KANSAS. TOOK OUT THE MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS PUT IN RAIN SHOWER WORDING AS STRONGER LIFT STAYS
SOUTH OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT WED OCT 8 2014
HURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...DURING THE MID RANGE
PERIODS...THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN
THE SOUTH...CLOUDINESS AND TEMPERATURES. ON THURSDAY NIGHT...A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT TO THE EAST NORTHEAST FROM THE FOUR
CORNERS INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. ALONG AND EAST OF THIS
FEATURE...STRONG MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS...ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL KS...WILL COMBINE WITH ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE AND LEFT OVER
MOISTURE FROM TS SIMON...PRODUCING WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS KANSAS.
THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS AREA...APPEARS TO IMPACT FAR SRN
NEBRASKA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THE MODELS HAVE
TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH WITH THIS PCPN WITH THIS MORNINGS RUNS...AND
HAVE PUSHED THE POP THREAT FARTHER SOUTH...MAINLY ENCOMPASSING OUR
FAR THREE SWRN COUNTIES OF CHASE...HAYES AND FRONTIER. ELSEWHERE...A
THICK VEIL OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL TRACK INTO THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL HOLD LOWS TO
THE LOWER TO MID 40S IN THE CENTRAL AND SRN CWA. IN THE NORTH WHERE
THE VEIL OF CLOUDS WILL BE THIN...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL TO THE
UPPER 30S. FOR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...FORCING A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA...STALLING THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE FRONT RANGES OF COLORADO AND
WYOMING...AS WELL AS CENTRAL KS. IN ADDITION TO CAA...ABUNDANT MID
AND HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SRN 2/3RDS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WHICH WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO THE MID AND UPPER 50S.
SOME LOW 60S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FAR NORTHWEST CLOUDS WILL BE
LIMITED AND WEAK WAA WILL DEVELOP LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SATURDAY
NIGHT. GUIDANCE LOWS CAME IN REAL COOL FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SERN AND EASTERN FORECAST AREA WITH LOWS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. WITH HIGH PRESSURE WELL EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND A DEVELOPING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS CENTRAL AND
WESTERN NEBRASKA...WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WITH THIS IN MIND...LIMITED LOWS TO THE MID
30S TO THE UPPER 40S. ON SATURDAY...A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEEPEN ALONG THE FRONT RANGES OF WYOMING AND COLORADO.
INCREASING SRLY WINDS WILL PUSH WARM AIR NWD INTO THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN CWA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BASED ON H85 TEMPS...WE SHOULD SEE A
WIDE RANGE IN TEMPS SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS AROUND 60 IN THE
EAST TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE WEST.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL APPROACH AND TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PLAINS OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE
RETAINED IN THE FORECAST...HOWEVER FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THIS
OCCURRING CONTINUES TO DIMINISH AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS MEAGER
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. RIDGING WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE EXITING
TROUGH ON MONDAY...AND WILL PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD
TO A DRY FCST WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 30S AND
40S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT WED OCT 8 2014
VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.
A STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE SWRN U.S. WILL AFFECT KS THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING. ANY MVFR/IFR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA.
THERE IS ALSO A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS THIS
EVENING AND THE NAM AND THE RAP ATTEMPT TO GENERATE A NARROW BAND
OF MVFR/IFR CIGS ALONG THE FRONT AS IT APPROACHES OR ENTERS NRN
NEB THURSDAY MORNING 13Z-15Z. THIS SEEMS OVERDONE GIVEN THE
LIMITED MOISTURE BUT THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE...5 PERCENT...THAT
THESE LOW CEILINGS WILL FORM ACROSS NCNTL NEB THURSDAY MORNING. IF
THE CEILINGS DEVELOP...VFR WOULD DEVELOP AROUND 21Z.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...GOMEZ
LONG TERM...CLB
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1025 PM EDT FRI OCT 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH WILL THEN DROP
INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...BEFORE PUSHING TO THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY
AS A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTH. THE FRONT WILL
RETREAT BACK TO THE NORTH ON MONDAY...WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT THEN
EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A RISK FOR
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION
INTO LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM FRIDAY...THE 00Z CHS SOUNDING CAME IN 2-3 DEGREES F
WARMER THAN 18Z MODELS PREDICTED THROUGH THE LOWEST 75 MB OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. THIS...PLUS 02Z (10 PM) TEMPERATURES RUNNING A LITTLE
ABOVE MY EARLIER FORECAST HAS LED ME TO RAISE FORECAST LOWS BY
ANOTHER DEGREE IN MOST SPOTS. CONVECTION ACROSS DARLINGTON AND
MARLBORO COUNTIES HAS DISSIPATED. RECENT HRRR MODELS DO NOT INDICATE
MUCH POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. ACTIVITY IN AND
NEAR RALEIGH SHOULD STAY TO OUR NORTH. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 730
PM FOLLOWS...
ALTHOUGH THERE IS NOT A DEFINABLE FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS
THERE IS A DISCONTINUITY IN ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTENT. RECENT
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.4 INCHES WEST OF
INTERSTATE 95 WITH ONLY 1.0 INCH ON THE COAST. VERTICALLY...THIS
INCREASED MOISTURE IS MOST APPARENT AT THE 900 AND 850 MB LEVEL
WHICH IS VERY NEAR THE TOP OF TODAY`S DIURNALLY MIXED LAYER.
SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY NEAR 1000 J/G CONTINUES ACROSS THE CENTRAL
SOUTH CAROLINA AS FAR EAST AS I-95 WHERE A COUPLE CLUSTERS OF
SHOWERS AND T-STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED. THIS ACTIVITY IS ROLLING
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS HARTSVILLE AND DARLINGTON. OUR CONVECTION
DOES NOT HAVE A BRIGHT FUTURE AHEAD OF IT: A STABILIZING BOUNDARY
LAYER AND LESS MOISTURE DOWNSTREAM SHOULD BOTH ACT TO END THIS
CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
SYNOPTICALLY...SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF IS
PRODUCING A WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OVER THE
CAROLINAS. AT LEAST TWO WEAK POSITIVELY-TILED SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE
WITHIN A RIBBON OF DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS TENNESSEE...NORTHERN NORTH
CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA OVERNIGHT. AT THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS TENNESSEE INTO
VIRGINIA. THIS SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE SYNOPTIC ACTION WELL OFF TO
OUR NORTH WITH ONLY CIRRUS AND OCCASIONAL MID CLOUDS DOWN THIS WAY.
A MODERATE LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD DEVELOP SHORTLY WITH WIND SPEEDS AT
1000 FEET AGL INCREASING TO 20 KT. (THE NAM INCREASES THESE WIND
SPEEDS TO 30 KNOTS OVERNIGHT...QUITE A BIT STRONGER THAN THE GFS)
THIS SHOULD HELP DISTURB THE BOUNDARY LAYER JUST ENOUGH TO PREVENT A
DEEP SUBSIDENCE INVERSION FROM DEVELOPING...AND FORECAST LOWS ARE
NEAR THE TOP END OF THE MOS GUIDANCE ENVELOPE: MID 60S MOST AREAS
WITH UPPER 60S AT THE BEACHES. INTERESTINGLY SINCE THIS LOW LEVEL
JET WILL BE WEAKER THE FARTHER SOUTH YOU ARE...THE STRONGEST
RADIATIONAL INVERSION SHOULD DEVELOP SOUTH OF FLORENCE AND MYRTLE
BEACH AND I HAVE LOWER 60S FORECAST TO OCCUR IN THE GEORGETOWN/
CONWAY VICINITY AS A RESULT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM FRIDAY...SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY AS A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT DROPS TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. THE FRONT WILL DROP INTO
SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA SATURDAY EVENING...THEN SLOWLY PROGRESS
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OUT
OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY
SHOULD BE ISOLATED...AND MAINLY LIMITED TO SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA
IN THE AFTERNOON IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE NEARING FRONT. THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY
SATURDAY EVENING ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE
THROUGH. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AHEAD OF THE
BACKDOOR FRONT SHOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS
THE AREA INLAND FROM THE COAST. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE RATHER
MILD IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S GIVEN INCREASING CLOUD COVER.
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THE FRONT WILL PROGRESS SOUTH OF THE AREA
ON SUNDAY AS AN INLAND WEDGE BUILDS DOWN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS
WITH THE PARENT HIGH CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BECOME TRAPPED BENEATH THE STRONG INVERSION...
RESULTING IN CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS. FORCING FOR ASCENT IS RATHER
WEAK...BUT THE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND/OR PATCHY
DRIZZLE ACROSS THE AREA...WITH NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF MEASURABLE
RAINFALL EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER WITH
THE WEDGE IN PLACE AND HIGHS ARE ONLY FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOWER
70S ACROSS SOUTHEAST NC AND LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS MOST OF
NORTHEAST SC.
MONDAY...THE PARENT HIGH WILL SHIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...THUS
ALLOWING A WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA AS AN UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. HOWEVER...FEEL AS IS
TYPICALLY THE CASE THE MODELS ARE ERODING THE WEDGE A BIT TOO
QUICKLY. WILL TREND WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80
AND MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST...WITH
PERHAPS A FEW AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS IF THE WEDGE CAN GET
DISPLACED.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM FRIDAY...A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/CLOSED LOW TO THE
WEST WILL ALLOW A POTENT COLD FRONT TO SWING THROUGH THE AREA BY
MID-WEEK. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS CONSIDERABLE TIMING
DIFFERENCES...WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURRING ANYWHERE FROM LATE
TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY MORNING. GIVEN HOW THE UPPER LOW WRAPS UP IT
SHOULD SLOW THE SYSTEM DOWN AND THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS APPEAR MORE
LIKELY...BUT WILL TAKE SOMEWHAT OF A COMPROMISE AND INDICATE THE
FRONT MOVING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WHAT MODELS DO AGREE WITH IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...GIVEN A POWERFUL LOW
LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND OVERALL STRONG DYNAMICS. THE
BIGGEST FACTOR WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE INSTABILITY...WHICH
WOULD CERTAINLY BE BETTER IF THE FRONT MOVED THROUGH CLOSER TO PEAK
HEATING. STILL...A HIGH SHEAR LOW CAPE SCENARIO COULD SUPPORT A
THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT AND WILL KEEP MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
TRUE FALL AIR WILL ENVELOP THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH COOLER
AND MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THIS EVENING
WITH SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 KT. A COUPLE OF ISOLATED STORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED WEST OF KFLO...BUT THESE SHORT-LIVED CELLS DO NOT POSE A
THREAT TO ANY TAF SITE ATTM. ONSHORE FLOW HAS INCREASED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FOR TONIGHT...BUT LOW LEVEL WIND SPEEDS WILL BE NOTABLY
STRONGER THAN LAST NIGHT. THIS WILL LARGELY INHIBIT FOG FORMATION
OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS SOME 5-6SM VSBYS AT KFLO/KLBT AROUND
DAYBREAK. ALONG THE COAST...COULD SEE FEW/SCT MVFR STRATUS AT THE
TOP OF THE MOIST LAYER...BUT NO CIGS ARE EXPECTED. SAT WILL BE VFR
WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 10 KT. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TOWARD THE END
OF THE PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD. LATE AFTN ISOLATED
SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR KLBT/KILM...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
THE FRONT SHOULD STAY JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 00Z
SUN...SO NO WIND SHIFTS ARE NEEDED WITH THIS ISSUANCE.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...POST-FRONTAL MVFR/IFR CIGS EXPECTED SUN MORNING
THROUGH EARLY MON. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP MON AFTN/EVENING.
SHOWERS/TSTMS AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED TUE AFTN/NIGHT WITH A STRONG
COLD FRONT PASSAGE. VFR ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM FRIDAY...WINDS ARE RUNNING FAIRLY CLOSE TO PREDICTION
ACROSS THE WATERS NORTH OF MYRTLE BEACH...HOWEVER FROM MYRTLE BEACH
SOUTHWARD OBSERVATIONS HAVE BEEN RUNNING A FEW KNOTS BELOW FORECAST.
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS ARE NEEDED HOWEVER. LATEST OBSERVED SEAS REMAIN
1-2 FEET. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 730 PM FOLLOWS...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA WITH A
WEAKENING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ANALYZED JUST OFFSHORE. THIS IS
PRODUCING A ZONE OF RELATIVELY WEAK WINDS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS
BEYOND 50 MILES FROM SHORE AND ALSO ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST...BUT
THE FARTHER NORTH ONE TRAVELS WIND SPEEDS INCREASE. THIS PATTERN
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOCALLY...WIND SPEEDS SHOULD
INCREASE A FEW MORE KNOTS THIS EVENING AS A MODERATE LOW LEVEL JET
ORGANIZES OVERHEAD AND INCREASES WINDS AT 1000 FEET ABOVE THE OCEAN
SURFACE TO 20 KNOTS. DOWN AT THE OCEAN SURFACE EXPECT WINDS TO
INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS...HIGHEST NEAR AND NORTH OF CAPE FEAR. SEAS
CURRENTLY 1-2 FEET SHOULD EDGE CLOSER TO 2 FEET WITH A BIT OF A WIND
CHOP EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM FRIDAY...COLD FRONT WILL SINK SLOWLY ACROSS THE WATERS
DURING THE WEEKEND...PRODUCING TWO DISTINCTLY DIFFERENT REGIMES.
SATURDAY...THE FRONT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA AND THUS SW WINDS
WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE WATERS...AT SPEEDS OF 10-15 KT. THE FRONT WILL
BEGIN TO AFFECT THE WATERS VERY LATE SAT NIGHT...DROPPING ACROSS
AMZ250 FIRST...AND THEN PROCEEDING SOUTH ACROSS AMZ256 LAST...BY
SUNDAY MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A SUDDEN WIND
SHIFT TO THE NORTH...BECOMING NORTHEAST...AND THEN EVENTUALLY EAST
LATE SUNDAY...AS SPEEDS SURGE UPWARDS OF 15-20 KT. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL
BE 2-4 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT A SOUTHERLY WIND WAVE AND WEAK SE
SWELL WILL DOMINATE THE SPECTRUM SATURDAY...WHILE A GROWING NE WIND
WAVE WILL DEVELOP THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS PRODUCES A CONFUSED
SPECTRUM...ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY...WHEN MARINE
CONDITIONS COULD BECOME HAZARDOUS EVEN WHILE REMAINING BELOW ANY
CAUTIONARY THRESHOLDS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM FRIDAY...WINDS VEER MORE SOUTHERLY ON MONDAY IN A
PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS...AND THEN STEADILY INCREASE IN SPEED DURING
TUESDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. WINDS SPEEDS
OF 15-20 KT WILL BE COMMON MONDAY NIGHT...TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH GUSTS UPWARD OF 25 KT AT TIMES. THESE WINDS WILL DRIVE WAVE
HEIGHTS UP TO 4-6 FT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
MOST OF TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
INTO EXACTLY WHEN THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS...BUT IT APPEARS
TO BE TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL DEVELOP
BEHIND THE FRONT LATER WEDNESDAY WITH WINDS/SEAS IMPROVING.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JAQ
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...JAQ
LONG TERM...JAQ
AVIATION...BJR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
950 PM EDT FRI OCT 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY AND PUSH ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FRONT WILL STALL
TO THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY AND DISSIPATE OVER THE AREA. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE TUESDAY AND CROSS EASTERN
NC TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
BEHIND THE FRONT LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 950 PM FRIDAY...BAND OF SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS CONTINUE TO
ROLL EAST THROUGH THE EAST PIEDMONT AND HAS MOVED TO NEAR THE
RALEIGH AREA. THE LATEST 3KM HRRR SHOWS SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
HOLDING TOGETHER INTO OUR FAR WESTERN CWA AND HAVE RAISED POPS
JUST SLIGHTLY TO CHANCE FOR OUR FAR NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN
COUNTIES. THINK MUCH OF THE PRECIP WILL DISSIPATE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
ANOTHER WARM AND MAINLY DRY DAY TO START THE WEEKEND AS SFC FRONT
SLOWLY PUSHES SOUTH INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOME,
MAINLY MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS EXPECTED IN THE FAST ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT BUT LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUPPORT HIGHS AT LEAST INTO THE
LOW TO MID 80S INLAND. WIND OFF COOLER WATER WILL HOLD TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 70S ALONG THE BEACHES. THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
WILL BE INCREASING BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY OVER
NORTHERN AREAS AS THE SFC FRONT MOVES SOUTH AND MARGINAL
INSTABILITY SUGGESTS AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM,
HOWEVER MOISTURE AND THERMODYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL BE LACKING FOR
BOTH HEAVIER RAIN AND SEVERE WEATHER SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 355 PM FRI...THE SFC BOUNDARY BEGINS TO WASHOUT SUN INTO MON
AND WILL CONTINUE A DRYING TREND SUN NIGHT INTO MON AS HIGH PRESSURE
OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND NOSES SOUTH OVER EASTERN NC...ALTHOUGH
WITH ONSHORE FLOW CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER SO WILL MAINTAIN
LOW SLIGHT CHANCE. TEMPS NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY WITH GREATER CLOUD
COVER AND SLIGHTLY LOWER THICKNESSES. MAX TEMPS MID TO UPPER 70S
SUN WARMING BACK TO NEAR 80S MON.
SURFACE FLOW SHIFTS SOUTHEASTERLY TUES AS A ROBUST UPPER TROUGH
DIGS INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
NEAR THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THE LOW WILL PUSH NORTHEAST INTO NEW
ENGLAND AND DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH EASTERN NC SOMETIME TUES
NIGHT INTO WED. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF
THE UPPER TROUGH WITH SEVERAL ENS MEMBERS DEVELOPING A CUT-OFF
LOW TO THE WEST WHICH WILL HAVE TIMING IMPLICATIONS WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. 12Z ECMWF CONTINUES THE 00Z TREND OF A LARGE CUT-
OFF LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE MIDWEST...WITH A MUCH SLOWER FRONTAL
PASSAGE ACROSS EASTERN NC WED INTO WED NIGHT. FOR NOW WILL
DISCOUNT THE ECMWF WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE THOUGH GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY WILL LIMIT POPS TO 40-50 PERCENT TUES AFTERNOON INTO
WED. WILL MAINTAIN MENTION OF THUNDER AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE MODEST INSTABILITY AND STRONG SHEAR AND HELICITY...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STORMS TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE AHEAD OF
AND ALONG THE FRONT. STRONG SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST OVER THE
REGION WED NIGHT INTO THURS. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL AGAIN
PUSH TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY TUES WITH LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES BUILDING 1390-1400 METERS...THEN NEAR NORMAL WED/THURS
AS THICKNESSES LOWER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. MAX TEMPS EXPECTED
TO RANGE IN THE LOWER 80S TUES WITH MID 70S WED AND THURS.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 650 PM FRIDAY...CONTINUE MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE. INCREASING CLOUDS COUPLED WITH
A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD KEEP MOST FOG AT BAY OVERNIGHT. SOME
OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR FOG AT KISO/KPGV/KOAJ
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...BUT CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICIT PROGS
SHOW A MINIMAL THREAT AND WILL KEEP OUT. CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
INCREASE WITH A THREAT OF SHOWERS BY LATE IN THE DAY.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 350 PM FRI...PREDOMINANT VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
A WEAK BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE REGION INTO SUNDAY
BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES FOR PRECIP...HOWEVER SOME UNCERTAINTY
CONTINUES WITH REGARDS TO TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. SURFACE FLOW SHIFTS SOUTHEASTERLY MON ALLOWING TEMPS AND
DEWPOINTS TO INCREASE...WITH AN ISOLATED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TUES AND COULD SEE
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION LATER IN THE DAY TUES.
BRIEF OVERNIGHT FOG/STRATUS MAY BE AN ISSUE EARLY MON AND TUES
MORNING THOUGH LIGHT SURFACE MIXING MAY PRECLUDE FOG DEVELOPMENT.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 950 PM FRIDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS
EXCEPT 15 TO 20 KNOTS OVER THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS. SEAS ARE
PRETTY MUCH 2 FEET ACROSS THE BOARD WITH SOME LONG PERIOD SWELLS.
AS SLOW-MOVING FRONT SLIDES SOUTH FROM VIRGINIA...SOUTH WINDS
INCREASE BY LATE TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
WINDS VEER TO NORTHERLY LATE IN THE DAY AS THE FRONT MOVES SLOWLY
SOUTH. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 4 TO 5 FEET BEHIND THE FRONT ON
SATURDAY.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 350 PM FRI...EXPECT N/NE WINDS AROUND 10-20 KT DEVELOP AFTER
FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH THE STRONGEST EXPECTED EARLY SUN MORNING. THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WASHOUT LATE SUN WITH SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING BY MON. SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW INCREASES TO 15-25 KT
TUES...WHICH VEERS TO SLY AND POSSIBLY AS STRONG AS 30 KT TUE NIGHT
AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. SEAS BUILD UP TO 5 FT LATE ACROSS A
LARGE PORTION OF THE OUTER WATERS AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE SAT INTO SUN.
SEAS SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY MON...BUT ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE QUICKLY
TUES AS SE/SLY FLOW INCREASES PEAKING AROUND 6-8 FT AND POSSIBLY
HIGHER LATE TUES NIGHT. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS AND WAVEWATCH III IN
DESCENT AGREEMENT FOR THE LONG TERM THOUGH THE LOCAL SWAN/NWPS IS
PREFERRED IN NORTHEASTERLY FLOW SUN.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...SK/DAG
AVIATION...CTC/RF/DAG
MARINE...CTC/DAG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
755 PM EDT FRI OCT 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT...
THEN DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY. A SERIES OF UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM FRIDAY...
BAND OF CONVECTION NOW STRETCHING ACROSS THE VA/WV BORDER SOUTHWEST
THROUGH TN HAS HAD A TOUGH TIME MAKING EASTWARD PROGRESS TOWARD THE
CWA THUS FAR... AS THE MEAN STEERING FLOW HAS KEPT MOST OF THE
PRECIP TRACKING TO THE NE. PATCHY SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP OVER THE NE
PIEDMONT WITHIN WEAK INSTABILITY... ALTHOUGH UPSCALE GROWTH OF THESE
ARE UNLIKELY GIVEN THEIR MOVEMENT INTO A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.
WILL RETAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA THROUGH THIS EVENING... FOLLOWING THE PATH OF HIGH
MAGNITUDES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT... AND HIGH CHANCES TO
LOW-END LIKELY POPS NEAR THE VA BORDER... FOLLOWING INDICATIONS FROM
HIGH-RES MODEL GUIDANCE AND CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS... IN
ADDITION TO SREF PROBABILITIES WHICH ARE QUITE LOW ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE HIGHWAY 64 CORRIDOR. THE LATEST HRRR RUNS SHOW THE BEST
COVERAGE NEAR THE VA BORDER DURING THE EVENING HOURS... SO WILL
MAXIMIZE THE POPS DURING THIS TIME... ALLOWING THEM TO SLIP BACK TO
LOWER CHANCES IN THE NW AND FAR NORTH ONLY OVERNIGHT AS THE INITIAL
SURFACE LOW... EXPECTED TO FORM OVER SW VA BY EARLY EVENING...
TRACKS OFF TO THE ENE. BASED ON CURRENT AND UPSTREAM DEWPOINTS AND
MODEL GUIDANCE TRENDS... AND CONSIDERING THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL
HOLD NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT... WILL KEEP LOWS
QUITE MILD... 62-66. -GIH
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM FRIDAY...
FOR SAT/SAT NIGHT: STILL ANTICIPATE BACKDOOR FRONTAL PASSAGE MID
AFTERNOON SAT THROUGH EARLY EVENING... AS THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
NOW OVER NM TRACKS TO THE ENE TOWARD THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE
FRONT`S SOUTHWARD PUSH WILL ALSO BE ENCOURAGED BY DIGGING SHORTWAVE
ENERGY OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WHICH WILL ALLOW COOL AND DENSE
HIGH PRESSURE CROSSING THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO NY/PA BY SAT NIGHT
TO BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO VA/NC. CONVECTION ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
FRONT APPEARS FAIRLY CERTAIN... ALTHOUGH DESPITE IMPROVING DEEP
LAYER SHEAR FROM AROUND 25 KTS TO AS MUCH AS 45-50 KTS FROM SAT
THROUGH SAT NIGHT... MUCAPE IS MARGINAL... BELOW 1000 J/KG ON THE
GFS AND BELOW 1500 J/KG ON THE NAM. NEVERTHELESS... DYNAMIC FORCING
FOR ASCENT WITH THE APPROACHING DPVA ALONG WITH WEAK UPPER
DIVERGENCE SHOULD PARTIALLY MAKE UP FOR THE THERMODYNAMIC
DEFICIENCIES. WILL KEEP SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING POPS AS GOOD CHANCE
FOR NOW... BUT WE MAY NEED TO GO UP TO LIKELY IF MODEL TRENDS
PERSIST. PRECIP COVERAGE SHOULD DROP SOUTH AND DECREASE SAT NIGHT
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND SOUTHWARD PUSH OF THE FRONT. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS TO FORM BEHIND THE FRONT SAT NIGHT.
THICKNESSES AND STATISTICAL GUIDANCE POINT TO HIGHS SAT FROM 77 NEAR
THE VA BORDER TO 85 IN THE FAR SOUTH... GIVEN THE DELAY IN FRONTAL
PASSAGE UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. LOWS 53-61. -GIH
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT: WITH THE FRONT STILL DRAPED ACROSS THE
AREA...THE MODERATELY STRONG SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL BE
IN A FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR A HYBRID COLD AIR DAMMING EVENT ON
SUNDAY. THAT BEING SAID...ISENTROPIC LIFT IS VERY WEAK AT BEST AND
THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A HUGE RAIN PRODUCING EVENT. CHANCES FOR
RAIN WILL BE BEST IN THE TRIAD WITH TOTALS OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR
LESS WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE SOUTHEAST. IT WILL HOWEVER BE MOSTLY
CLOUDY IF NOT OVERCAST AND MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL CERTAINLY
SUFFER. EXPECT A MAX T GRADIENT OF TEN DEGREES OR SO WITH LOWER 60S
IN THE NW TO LOWER 70S IN THE SOUTHEAST. SUNDAY NIGHT THE HIGH
BEGINS TO PULL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE
FRONT TO ALSO RETREAT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT. THIS WILL KEEP LOWS
MODERATED WITH UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S EXPECTED. -RTE
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM FRIDAY...
A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND DOWN INTO
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER MO/IL
STRENGTHENS AND MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
COUPLED WITH EXITING HIGH PRESSURE OFF OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL
PUT CENTRAL NC IN A SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME AS THE CAD BREAKS DOWN
WITH LOW PRESSURE TO THE NW. DEPENDING HOW LONG THAT TAKES WILL
DETERMINE MAX TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CWA WITH THE TRIAD LIKELY IN
THE MIDDLE 60S WITH UPPER 70S IN THE EAST.
TUESDAY WILL FEATURE THE APPROACH OF A VIGOROUS COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT LAKES LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM IS STILL THE BIGGEST ISSUE WITH BOTH DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF
THE GFS AND ECMWF STICKING TO THEIR GUNS. GFS CONTINUES TO BE FASTER
WITH THE EC BECOMING MORE CUT OFF AND LESS PROGRESSIVE AS A RESULT.
LOOKING AT THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE AS A WHOLE WITH A PLANETARY WAVE
NUMBER OF 5 AND A WEAK OMEGA BLOCK DOWNSTREAM...THE PATTERN SHOULD
STILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS FROM WEST TO EAST. THEREFORE STARTING TO
THINK THE ECMWF COULD BE A BIT TOO SLOW WITH THE SYSTEM. THE TRUTH
WILL PROBABLY BE BETWEEN THE TWO RUNS BUT WILL FOCUS MORE ON THE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/TUESDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME FOR POSSIBLE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THIS IS STILL LOOKING LIKE A HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE EVENT.
PLACEMENT IS STILL GOOD FOR THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 50 KT 850
MB JET AS WELL AS A NEAR 120 KT UPPER LEVEL JET ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF FORCING FOR ANY CONVECTION
THAT DOES GET STARTED ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS NOW CONFINED TO BELOW
500 J/KG. WHILE THIS WILL BE A HEAVY RAIN EVENT THE PROGRESSION OF
THE FRONT IS FAST ENOUGH THAT QPF TOTALS MAY BE RESTRAINED TO 1 TO 2
INCHES OR SO. IT LOOKS LIKE THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE THERE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE
MOST LIKELY SEVERE THREAT AND A BRIEF WINDOW FOR ROTATION IN
DISCREET CELLS AHEAD OF THE FRONT TUES AFT/EVE. INCREASED WARM AIR
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL HELP TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE
MID 70S IN THE TRIAD WITH LOW 80S ACROSS THE I-95 CORRIDOR. TUESDAY
NIGHT THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA BUT
THE REAL SURGE IN COLD AIR WILL PROBABLY NOT MAKE IT INTO THE AREA
UNTIL WEDNESDAY...LEAVING LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S TUESDAY
NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THERE ARE KEY DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS
WITH THE ECMWF LEAVING THE LOW CUT OFF AND HOVERING AROUND THE OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THE GFS CARRIES THE LOW OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST AND REPLACES IT WITH A SURFACE RIGE BUILDING OUT OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND UP THE EAST COAST. THE GENERAL TREND WILL BE
FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY GRADUALLY MODERATING FROM THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S INTO THE MID TO POSSIBLY UPPER 70S BY FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 755 PM FRIDAY...
A FEW STORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE SITUATED
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF NC THIS EVENING. INITIALLY...THE
STORMS WILL STAY NORTH OF KRWI/KRDU...BUT THE CHANCE OF A STORMS WITH
HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS WILL INCREASE AT KRDU AFTER 01Z AND AT
KRWI BY 02Z...AND PERIODS OF SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS THE FRONT SINKS SOUTH. AT KGSO AND
KINT...EARLY PRECIP HAS LEAD TO A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND IN ITS WAKE
AND A GOOD CHANCE OF IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AFTER 05Z. THE CHANCE OF
ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS IS MUCH LOWER AT KFAY OVERNIGHT.
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...THE FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD LIFT BACK TO
THE NORTH...WITH A WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTING TO 15-20KT...AND
SCATTERING OF LOW CLOUDS BY MID-MORNING. SHOWERS WILL AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO ONCE AGAIN
PUSH BACK SOUTH INTO THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
OUTLOOK... WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO NORTHERLY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS WILL RETURN OVERNIGHT AND LIKELY LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. A STRONG STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION
NEXT TUESDAY.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD/ELLIS
LONG TERM...ELLIS
AVIATION...BLS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
315 PM EDT THU OCT 09 2014
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL DRIFT EAST AND OFF THE
COAST TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH FRIDAY...
THEN DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY. A SERIES OF UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION OVER
THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM THURSDAY...
THROUGH TONIGHT: OF IMMEDIATE CONCERN IS THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX NOW
PUSHING THROUGH SE KY/ERN TN INTO SW VA AND APPROACHING WRN NC... AS
WELL AS THE MORE CELLULAR CONVECTION POPPING UP OVER NE GA/SW NC
ALONG THE SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY GRADIENT. MODELS HAVE DONE A
SUBPAR JOB HANDLING THESE FEATURES... NOT SURPRISING IN THE CASE OF
THE KY/TN COMPLEX GIVEN THAT IT`S ELEVATED. THE HRRR MODEL WITH ITS
RADAR DATA ASSIMILATION IS ONE OF THE FEW PICKING UP ON IT... AND IT
TAKES THE PRECIP AREA EASTWARD INTO THE VA AND NRN NC MOUNTAINS
BEFORE DISSIPATING IT INTO ISOLATED SHOWERS... REASONABLE
CONSIDERING ITS CURRENT WEAKENING. THE HRRR AND SPC WRF BOTH DEPICT
CONVECTION OVER THE SW NC MOUNTAINS INTO GA... AND THEY TOO TEND TO
DISSIPATE THIS ACTIVITY AS IT HEADS (WITH THE MEAN WIND) ON A MORE
EASTERLY TRACK INTO THE MORE STABLE AIR WITH LITTLE TO NO
INSTABILITY (SURFACE-BASED OR ELEVATED). WILL INCLUDE A MENTION OF
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE FAR WRN AND SW FRINGES OF THE CWA
INTO THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE... EXPECT CURRENTLY FAIR/MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES TO SUCCUMB TO CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MID CLOUDS ARRIVING FROM THE
WNW... AS WELL AS A HIGHER CLOUD SHIELD SPREADING OUT FROM ORGANIZED
CONVECTION EXTENDING FROM MO THROUGH THE OH VALLEY. THE FRONTAL ZONE
TO OUR SOUTH WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE TONIGHT... WHILE
FRONTOGENESIS TAKES PLACE JUST TO OUR NORTH ACROSS SRN VA... THE
EASTWARD EXTENT OF THE FRONTAL ZONE NOW STRETCHING ACROSS MO/KY. THE
CLOUDS ALONG WITH CLIMBING DEWPOINTS RESULTING FROM THE FRONTOLYSIS
TO OUR SOUTH SHOULD KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO FAR TONIGHT. EXPECT
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LOWS OF 52-57.
FOR FRI/FRI NIGHT: THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING OUT TO
SEA FRI... WHILE THE FRONT TO OUR NORTH STEADILY STRENGTHENS ROUGHLY
WEST-EAST ACROSS SRN TN/KY. OVERRUNNING FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE DAY FRI AS A LOW-AMPLITUDE MID-LEVEL
PERTURBATION MOVES EAST OVER KY/TN TOWARD THE SRN APPALACHIANS. MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO
FRI NIGHT FROM NW TO SE. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVER WRN KY/TN AND RIDE EAST ALONG THE FRONT LATE FRI/FRI NIGHT...
LEADING TO STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS AND RAPIDLY RISING PW VALUES (TO WELL OVER 1.5") PEAKING
FRI EVENING... WHEN THE SURFACE LOW SHOULD BE MOVING THROUGH SW VA
TOWARD SOUTH-CENTRAL VA. WILL BRING A MENTION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED STORMS INTO THE NW CWA BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON...
SPREADING EAST THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE DECREASE A BIT WEST TO
EAST OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS TRACKS ENE AWAY FROM
CENTRAL NC. EXPECT HIGHEST POPS NEAR THE FRONT/LOW TRACK IN THE FAR
NRN SECTIONS... AND LOWER VALUES SOUTH WHERE THE SUBCLOUD LAYER WILL
BE A BIT DEEPER AND FORCING FOR ASCENT LOWER. HIGHS FROM 79 NW
(WHERE THICKER/EARLIER CLOUDS WILL LIMIT INSOLATION) TO 84 SE. VERY
WARM LOWS OF 63-66 FRI NIGHT WITH STEADY WARM AIR ADVECTION AND A
BLANKET OF CLOUDS. -GIH
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...
AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EXITS THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON SATURDAY
MORNING IT WILL LEAVE A FAIRLY STAGNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED
ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA AS ZONAL FLOW ALOFT DOES LITTLE TO STEER THE
FRONT ONE WAY OR ANOTHER. THE KEY FACTOR IN THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF
THE FRONT SEEMS TO BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS HIGH IS STRONGER IN THE GFS SOLUTION AND HELPS
PUSH THE FRONT THROUGH MUCH OF THE CWA BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND CREATE
A COLD AIR DAMMING SCENARIO. THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS WEAKER WITH THE
HIGH AND THE FRONT NEVER FULLY MAKES IT THROUGH THE AREA. WPC
GUIDANCE LEANS TOWARDS THE EC ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH IS BETWEEN THE
MORE EXTREME DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS. THIS TRANSLATES TO A CLOUDY
WEEKEND WITH VARYING DEGREES OF PRECIPITATION. WITH A FEW VORTICITY
MAXIMA TRACKING SW TO NE ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE I-85
CORRIDOR...COUPLED WITH A PERIOD OF DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT...THE
BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVIER RAIN WOULD BE IN THE TRIAD WITHIN THE WEDGE
REGIME. THAT BEING SAID STILL EXPECTING QPF AMOUNTS TO BE JUST ABOVE
A HALF OF AN INCH WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE SOUTHEAST. SATURDAY THE
FRONT SHOULD STAY ACROSS THE NORTH ALLOWING MAX TEMPS TO RANGE FROM
THE MID 70S NORTH TO THE LOW 80S SOUTH. SUNDAY SHOULD BE COOLER AS
FRONT MOVES SOUTH AND COLD AIR DAMMING BECOMES LOCKED IN. HIGHS
SUNDAY MIDDLE 60S NW TO LOWER 70S SE. LOWS UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S BOTH
NIGHTS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OUT TO SEA...LOW
PRESSURE MOVING UP THE APPALACHIANS WILL BE THE EROSION MECHANISM
FOR BREAKING DOWN THE CAD WEDGE. THIS WILL LEAD TO A RELATIVE PERIOD
OF LESS CLOUDY AND DRIER WEATHER MONDAY THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY ON
TUESDAY. THE PREVIOUS FRONTAL ZONE WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT ON MONDAY AND THUS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE CONSIDERABLY
WARMER...MID 70S TO LOW 80S WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID
60S. TUESDAY WILL BE MORE OF THE SAME AS STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION
TAKES PLACE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. EXPECT
INCREASING CLOUDS ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS AGAIN IN THE MID 70S TO LOW
80S.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: THE MAIN EVENT FOR THE LONG TERM
WILL BE A FAIRLY POTENT FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH A VERY DEEP
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. BOTH DETERMINISTIC MODELS
ARE NOW IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE BASIC PATTERN WITH TIMING
THE BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT BEING THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM.
THE FASTER GFS SOLUTION BRINGS PRECIP INTO THE AREA LATE TUE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AND PUSHES THE COLD FRONT THROUGH BEFORE
SUNRISE ON WEDNESDAY. THE EUROPEAN IS MUCH LATER WITH THE SYSTEM
WITH PRECIPITATION ENTERING WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT. WHAT THEY DO AGREE UPON IS THAT BOTH
SOLUTIONS ARE NEGATIVELY TILTED AND FAIRLY POTENT WITH THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 60 KT 850 MB JET PASSING OVER CENTRAL NC. THIS
WILL BE A HIGH SHEAR LOW CAPE EVENT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN AND POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER. WILL LET THE DETAILS IRON
THEMSELVES OUT IN THE COMING DAYS. FAVORING THE SLOWER TIMING A
BIT...EXPECT LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S AND
THEN HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. WITH COLD FRONTAL
A COLDER AIRMASS MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOWS THURSDAY MORNING IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. EXPECT A
CLEARING TREND FOR THURSDAY WITH HIGHS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR...UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM THURSDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z FRI. CLOUDS WILL
OVERSPREAD CENTRAL NC TAF SITES FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 21Z AND
LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT... HOWEVER CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR WITH
BASES LIKELY AOA 5 000 FT AGL. VSBYS SHOULD REMAIN VFR WITH LOW
DEWPOINTS LIMITING FOG DEVELOPMENT... ALTHOUGH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS AND
BANKS OF FOG ARE POSSIBLE NEAR FAY (LIGHTER WINDS TONIGHT AND
SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS) 08Z-12Z EARLY FRI MORNING. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD IS PRODUCING LIGHT/VRBL SURFACE WINDS CURRENTLY...
AND THIS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT... BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY
FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRI MORNING... AT SPEEDS OF 8-
12 KTS BY LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD... AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST
AND OFFSHORE. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS NOT ANTICIPATED... HOWEVER
AVIATORS SHOULD BE ALERT FOR 20-30 KT WINDS FROM THE SW AT AROUND
2000-2500 FT AGL 06Z-12Z TONIGHT/FRI MORNING.
LOOKING BEYOND 18Z FRI... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH FRI
EVENING... ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE MAINLY AT INT/GSO FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE RETURN FLOW
FROM THE SW DEEPENING WITH TIME WILL BRING INCREASING NEAR-SURFACE
MOISTURE AND A CHANCE OF IFR/LIFR FOG/STRATUS LATE FRI NIGHT/SAT
MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA SAT...
RESULTING IN A GOOD CHANCE OF A PERIOD OF SUB-VFR SHOWERS/STORMS AT
ALL CENTRAL NC TERMINALS LATE SAT THROUGH SAT NIGHT. AS THE FRONT
SETTLES SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH SURFACE WINDS BECOMING FROM THE NE
SAT NIGHT WHILE MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ATOP IT... SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN ARE POSSIBLE AREAWIDE SUN INTO
MON... ALTHOUGH THESE ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS MAY LAST THROUGH
MON NIGHT. A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST TUE MAY
BRING WIDESPREAD STRONG STORMS AND STRONG GRADIENT WINDS ON TUE INTO
TUE NIGHT. -GIH
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...ELLIS
LONG TERM...ELLIS
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
928 AM EDT THU OCT 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY...AND GRADUALLY
MOVE OFFSHORE FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH LATE
SATURDAY AND STALL TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL RETURN NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 930 AM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST AND TEMPERATURES ARE MAINLY IN THE MID/UPPER 60S
ACROSS THE REGION. WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE ABLE TO RISE INTO FORECAST VALUES IN THE MID/UPPER 70S BY
AFTERNOON. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM THURSDAY...WEAKENING SFC RIDGE WILL BE OVER AREA
TONIGHT WITH SOME INCREASING HIGH CLOUDINESS ALOFT. DRY AIR MASS AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO LOWER 50S INLAND WHILE
WARM WATER TEMPS KEEP COAST 60-65.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM THU...SURFACE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHEASTERLY FRI AS A
SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES OFFSHORE WHILE ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES ALOFT. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY FRI AND
SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE CWA FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AND HAVE
MAINTAINED MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRI INTO FRI EVENING. THE
BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN NC SAT INTO SAT
NIGHT. 00Z OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF/NAM COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
PUSHING THE FRONT ACROSS THE CWA LATE SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EVENING AND STALLING NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR LATE SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN. MODELS NOT OVERLY WET WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WILL KEEP POPS
IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE WITH THE HIGHEST SAT NIGHT AS FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES WEST-SOUTHWEST SAT HELPING TO TRANSPORT ADDITIONAL MOISTURE.
THE BOUNDARY BEGINS TO WASHOUT SUN INTO MON. WILL CONTINUE A DRYING
TREND SUN NIGHT INTO MON AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
NOSES SOUTH OVER EASTERN NC...ALTHOUGH WITH ONSHORE FLOW CANNOT RULE
OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER. TEMPS WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY FRI AND SAT WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES BUILDING
1390-1400 METERS...THEN NEAR NORMAL SUN WITH GREATER CLOUD COVER AND
SLIGHTLY LOWER THICKNESSES. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER 80S
FRI AND SAT WITH MID TO UPPER 70S SUN WARMING BACK TO NEAR 80S MON.
SURFACE FLOW SHIFTS SOUTHEASTERLY TUES INTO WED AS A ROBUST UPPER
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS NEAR THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THE LOW WILL PUSH NORTHEAST
INTO NEW ENGLAND AND DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH EASTERN NC SOMETIME
TUES NIGHT INTO WED. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE EVOLUTION
OF THE UPPER TROUGH WITH SEVERAL ENS MEMBERS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING A
CUT-OFF LOW TO THE WEST WHICH WILL HAVE TIMING IMPLICATIONS WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY WILL CONTINUE LIMIT POPS TO
30-40 PERCENT TUES AFTERNOON INTO WED. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL AGAIN PUSH TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY TUES WITH
LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES BUILDING 1390-1400 METERS...THEN NEAR NORMAL
WED AS THICKNESSES LOWER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. MAX TEMPS
EXPECTED TO RANGE IN THE LOWER 80S TUES WITH MID TO UPPER 70S WED.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
AS OF 715 AM THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OFFSHORE AND WEAK HIGH PRES
WITH CAA IS BUILDING IN FROM NW. HIGH CLOUDS WITH WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE DURING FCST PERIOD. LIGHT N TO NE WINDS TODAY
AND NEAR CALM TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER AREA TONIGHT
WITH VFR CONTINUING BUT GDNC INDICATES ATMOS TOO DRY FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 4 AM THU...PREDOMINANT VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM
THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF MVFR/IFR FOG EARLY FRIDAY MORNING OR
SATURDAY MORNING DUE TO MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER A WEAK SURFACE-BASED
INVERSION. A WEAK BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE REGION
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES FOR PRECIP...HOWEVER
SOME UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES WITH REGARDS TO TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM THURSDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE IN THE 15 TO 20
KNOT RANGE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AROUND 15 KNOTS OVER THE
SOUNDS. SEAS ARE 4 TO 5 FEET...ALTHOUGH THE BUOY 10 MILES
NORTHEAST OF DUCK BRIEFLY REPORTED 6 FEET LAST HOUR. TRENDS IN THE
3KM HRRR AND RAP MODELS ARE FOR WINDS TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT 3
HOURS OR SO...DROPPING OFF TO 10-15 KNOTS BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL VEER TO NE AND DIMINISH TO 10 KT OR LESS BY EVENING.
SFC HIGH WILL BE OVER AREA THIS EVENING AND GRADUALLY BEGIN TO
MOVE OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT...PRODUCING VEERING WINDS WITH SPEEDS LESS
THAN 10 KT.
SEAS SUBSIDE TO 1-3 FT TONIGHT.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 4 AM THU...HIGH PRES WILL PULL OFFSHORE FRI ALLOWING WINDS TO
SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY AROUND 5-10 KT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NORTHWEST FRI NIGHT AND SAT WITH S/SW WIND INCREASING UP TO
15 KT. MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING WITH TIMING AND JUST HOW FAR
THE FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA HOWEVER 00Z OPERATIONAL
GFS/ECMWF/NAM IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH FROPA LATE SAT AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING WITH N/NE WINDS AROUND 10-15 KT...AND UP TO 20 KT IN THE
NAM MODEL. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WASHOUT LATE SUN WITH
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING MON. SEAS GENERALLY 2-3 FT FRI INTO
SAT..THEN BUILD UP TO 4 FT LATE ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE OUTER
WATERS SAT THROUGH MON.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...JBM/SK
MARINE...CTC/JBM/SK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
102 AM CDT THU OCT 9 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 102 AM CDT THU OCT 9 2014
BAND OF LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS PERSISTS ACROSS WESTERN INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS AN AREA OF ENHANCED
THERMAL LIFT NEAR A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS TO MATCH.
A FEW ISOLATED RADAR RETURNS ALSO SHOWING UP SO EXPANDED AND
EXTENDED ISOLD SHOWERS SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL THROUGH 09Z.
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL DISSIPATE/SCATTER OUT AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY SHIFTS FARTHER SOUTH NOW THROUGH 09-12Z.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 937 PM CDT WED OCT 8 2014
FOR THE LATE EVENING UPDATE...KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ACROSS SOUTHERN MORTON COUNTY INTO EASTERN SIOUX...EMMONS AND
MCINTOSH COUNTIES THROUGH AROUND 1 AM CENTRAL. OTHERWISE MAINLY
CLEAR FAR NORTH CENTRAL AND FAR SOUTHWEST WITH A BAND MID LEVEL
CLOUDS EXTENDING FROM NORTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
LOWERED TEMPERATURES A BIT NORTH WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND WITH
TEMPERATURES ALREADY IN THE LOWER 30S. TOUGH CALL ELSEWHERE WITH
THE REMAINING MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND A BAND OF THICKER HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS POSSIBLY MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
TO TEMPERATURES HERE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 636 PM CDT WED OCT 8 2014
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS FROM SASKATCHEWAN INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
DAKOTAS. MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO TRACK
SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. FOR THE
EVENING UPDATED ADJUSTED SKY COVER AND BACKED OFF ON POPS ACROSS
THE WEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL. LATEST 21 UTC HRRR AND 22 UTC RAP
CONTINUE TO INDICATE POSSIBLE SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINING OVER
MAINLY SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THUS
LATEST POPS WERE BASED ON A BLEND OF THESE MESOSCALE MODELS WITH
CURRENT RADAR ACTIVITY. THUS A LESS WIDESPREAD AREA OF SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FROM EASTERN PORTIONS OF LAKE SAKAKAWEA INTO
THE SOUTH CENTRAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT WED OCT 8 2014
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES HIGH STRETCHING THROUGH THE MIDWEST
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE LOW PUSHES TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
JAMES BAY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER ONTARIO WITH RIDGE
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BRINGING NORTHWEST FLOW TO OUR AREA. A
FEW SUBTLE SHORT WAVES CONTINUE TO SLIDE THROUGH THE FLOW BRINGING
SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO PARTS OF WESTERN INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA.
FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TAPERING OFF AND SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING...WITH QUIET WEATHER THEN EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES...CHILLY
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.
ON THURSDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS OVER THE AREA AS RIDGE TO THE
WEST AMPLIFIES AND STARTS PUSHING A BIT TO THE EAST BRINGING
DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT WED OCT 8 2014
MAIN FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM IS THE SATURDAY WARM UP FOLLOWED BY A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. USED MAINLY A CONSENSUS
MODEL BLEND FOR DETAILS.
THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND COOL DRY HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN TO THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS/MINNESOTA. MORNING LOWS FRIDAY MORNING AROUND 30F IN CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA WITH MID/UPPER 30S SOUTHWEST. A COOL AND QUIET DAY
FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S. A SMALL AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE
MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CLIPS THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE STATE...JUST ENOUGH TO WARRANT A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS ON FRIDAY.
BY FRIDAY NIGHT THE COOL SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST...AND A SOUTHERLY
WIND FLOW COMMENCES. NOT AS COOL SATURDAY MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE
35 TO 40 RANGE. ON SATURDAY...THE SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF
A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES.
EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY IN THE 60S ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH.
THE UPPER LEVEL AND ACCOMPANYING SURFACE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS SATURDAY NIGHT...EXITING INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY
BY SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY.
THE MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH
SUNDAY. THE GFS DEVELOPS FAST-MOVING ZONAL WEST-TO-EAST FLOW ALOFT
WHICH COULD BRING SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME TO
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE EUROPEAN MODEL DEVELOPS A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE INSTEAD...WHICH WOULD KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. WILL
KEEP THE MENTION OF SHOWERS OUT OF THE FORECAST UNTIL TUESDAY...WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE MENTIONS IN THE NORTH - THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
SUGGEST SOME ENERGY IN SOUTHERN CANADA POSSIBLY CLIPPING THE
NORTHERN TIER.
OTHERWISE FAIRLY SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO
LOWER 60S SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 102 AM CDT THU OCT 9 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MID
LEVEL CLOUDINESS WITH CIGS FROM 7K-10K FT ACROSS THE WEST AND
SOUTH CENTRAL INCLUDING KISN...KDIK AND KBIS...KJMS FOR A PERIOD.
STILL EXPECT SKY COVER TO THE DIMINISH SLOWLY OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY
SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS THURSDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...AT 10 KTS OR LESS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...NH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
802 PM CDT FRI OCT 10 2014
.UPDATE...
POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED FOR TONIGHT...MAINLY CONFINING THE HIGHEST
POPS IN THE SOUTH. SEE DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
THE SURFACE FRONT HAS SUNK DOWN INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS
EVENING...AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SAG SOUTH TOWARD THE RED
RIVER. STABILIZATION HAS TAKEN PLACE WELL NORTH OF THE FRONT
ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. ELEVATED STORMS
CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WHERE THE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY LIES. ACTIVITY OVER CENTRAL OKLAHOMA SHOULD WEAKEN AS
IT TRACKS INTO THE MORE STABLE AIR OVER NE OK AND NW AR...THUS
THIS CASTS SOME DOUBT AS TO WHETHER THERE IS ANY FLOODING
POTENTIAL FOR NW AR TO KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING. WILL WAIT
ON SOME NEW 00Z NAM AND HRRR DATA BEFORE MAKING FINAL DECISION. I
HAVE CUT WAY BACK ON POPS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-44 AND MAY CUT POPS
BACK OVER NW AR IF THE TRENDS CONTINUE.
LACY
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 650 PM CDT FRI OCT 10 2014/
AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY SOUTHEAST OK
AND WEST CENTRAL AR TAF SITES KMLC KFSM THIS EVENING INTO
OVERNIGHT. LOW MVFR CEILING KBVO...IFR CEILINGS KTUL KRVS
KXNA KFYV SLOWLY RISING THEN HOLDING AROUND 10-15 HND FEET
OVERNIGHT. SLOW IMPROVEMENT SATURDAY FROM THE NORTH WITH
GENERALLY MVFR CEILINGS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM CDT FRI OCT 10 2014/
DISCUSSION...
SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR
KADM TO NEAR KMLC AND INTO WEST-CENTRAL ARKANSAS. SOME OF THESE
STORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE
WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG AND LI VALUES AROUND
-5. LARGE HAIL AND WIND GUST TO AROUND 65 MPH WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERN. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE
CONVECTION BECOMES MORE ELEVATED. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO A
CONCERN WITH THESE STORMS. 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE
WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND
INTO SATURDAY AS SEVERAL MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
AND AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY MOVES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.
STILL A CONCERN ABOUT FLASH FLOODING IN THE FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS COUNTIES
AS THE GROUND ACROSS THAT AREA IS ALREADY SATURATED. SOME LOCATIONS IN
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS COULD SEE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN WHICH COULD POSE A
FLASH FLOOD CONCERN. WILL LEAVE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN PLACE FOR TONIGHT
FOR THE NORTHWEST ARKANSAS COUNTIES WHILE DROPPING THE NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
COUNTIES WHERE LESSER RAIN FALL AMOUNTS ARE ANTICIPATED. THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES MOVES EAST OF THE
TULSA FORECAST AREA.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS A STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES
AND ACROSS THE AREA. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM. A SQUALL LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS
PORTIONS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS. THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO END MONDAY NIGHT AS THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS DRY AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER
THE AREA. THE NEXT FRONT IS EXPECTED TO COME THROUGH THE AREA DRY ON
FRIDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 49 58 46 73 / 30 40 10 20
FSM 61 64 53 73 / 90 60 30 20
MLC 52 60 47 74 / 90 40 20 20
BVO 50 58 44 72 / 20 30 10 20
FYV 51 58 47 69 / 80 60 30 20
BYV 48 56 46 68 / 80 70 30 20
MKO 52 58 48 71 / 80 50 20 20
MIO 48 57 46 70 / 30 40 20 20
F10 50 58 47 73 / 80 40 10 20
HHW 60 66 52 74 / 90 40 20 20
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-
ARZ011.
&&
$$
LONG TERM....30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
450 PM EDT THU OCT 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL ACROSS TENNESSEE VALLEY TO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT...AND SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY LIFT NORTH AND WEAKEN
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
FOR MID-WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
415 PM UPDATE...A LINE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS IS NOW ATTEMPTING TO
PROPAGATE ACROSS THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS...BUT RADAR TRENDS OVER THE
PAST HR DO NOT REALLY LEAD ONE TO BELIEVE THEY WILL POSE A GREAT
THREAT TO AREAS EAST. THE MORE STABLE/CAPPED CONDITIONS OVER THE
PIEDMONT ARE LIKELY TO HOLD STRONG. DESPITE THAT...THE LAST COUPLE
RUNS OF THE HRRR AS WELL AS THE 12Z 4KM SPC WRF ALLOW SCT ACTIVITY
TO MAKE IT TO THE I-77 CORRIDOR AROUND SUNSET AS THE ASSOCIATED
UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES OVERHEAD. AGAIN...TRENDS SO FAR SUGGEST THE
ACTIVITY WILL NOT MAKE IT...BUT DID FEEL IT WAS REASONABLE TO EXPAND
SCHC POPS A BIT FURTHER INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND CENTRAL UPSTATE LATE
THIS AFTN. TOUCHED UP SKY TRENDS ALSO...BUT TEMPS ARE ON TRACK.
AS OF 230 PM...TONIGHT...QUASI-ZONAL 500 MB FLOW WILL CONTINUE...BUT
STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL EJECT OUT OF THE ROCKIES...AND HELP
ACTIVATE A WARM FRONT ACRS THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL ALSO HELP
STRENGTHEN SWLY 850 MB FLOW ATOP THE CWFA...AND ADVECT GULF MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA. KEEPING A LINGERING SLGT CHC TO LOW-END CHC POP ACRS
THE NC MTNS LOOKS REASONABLE. CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
ACRS THE ENTIRE AREA. SO EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO BE ABOVE
NORMAL...PRIMARILY IN THE 50S TO LWR 60S.
FRIDAY...SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ACRS THE MIDWEST
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH A SFC QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT REMAINING
ACTIVE JUST TO OUR NORTH. THE NAM AND GFS AGREE ON HIGHER DWPTS AND
SBCAPE ACRS THE ENTIRE CWFA. SWLY FLOW LLVL FLOW WILL CONTINUE AND
HELP TRIGGER CONVECTION ACRS THE AREA...WITH HIGHEST COVERAGE IN THE
MTNS. BLENDING IN THE LATEST GUIDANCE...POPS WERE BUMPED UP A
CATEGORY ACRS MOST OF THE AREA...RANGING FROM SLGT CHC ALONG SE
BORDER TO LIKELY ALONG TN BORDER. NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF A SEVERE
THREAT...AND SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK SHOWS JUST GENERAL THUNDER. TEMPS
WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL (MAINLY MID 60S TO MID 70S MTNS AND UPR 70S
TO LWR 80S PIEDMONT).
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM THURSDAY...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE TO
BEGIN THE PERIOD...WITH HEIGHTS GRADUALLY RISING LATE IN THE WEEKEND
AS AN UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. A SERIES OF UPPER
IMPULSES ARE FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THROUGH THE MEAN WESTERLY FLOW
AFFECTING MAINLY WESTERN NC. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT OF THESE IMPULSES
IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE SAT. AT THE
SURFACE...THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH AN EAST/WEST BOUNDARY
STRETCHING FROM THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY EASTWARD THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY AND THEN OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. A FRONTAL WAVE MOVING
ALONG THE FRONT TO THE NORTH AND THEN OFF THE EAST COAST EARLY SAT
WILL CAUSE THE BOUNDARY TO PUSH SOUTHWARD AND PERHAPS APPROACH THE
I-85 CORRIDOR SAT EVENING. AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH MOVES INTO
A COLD AIR DAMMING POSSITION SAT NIGHT...THE FRONT WILL BACKDOOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GA BY EARLY SUNDAY.
THE WEDGE IS THEN FORECAST TO HOLD FAST THROUGH SUNDAY.
THEREFORE...THE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE UNSETTLED. THE
GFS AND EC HAVE QUITE A BIT OF QPF RESPONSE ALONG AND JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES SLOWLY SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA FRI
NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT. THE NAM KEEPS MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE PRECIP
OVER WESTERN NC ON SAT BEFORE BRINGING IT SOUTHWARD SAT NIGHT. WILL
ADVERTISE SOLID CHANCE POPS MAINLY OVER WESTERN NC FRI NIGHT. AS THE
MAIN UPPER SUPPORT APPROACHES ON SAT...WILL THEN RAMP POPS UP TO LOW
LIKELY ON SAT OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN NC WITH CHANCE POPS SPREADING
INTO THE PIEDMONT AREAS SAT AFTERNOON. EXPECT THAT SCT/NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO SAT NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO
NOT LOOK CONDUCIVE FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF A SEVERE THREAT WITH ONLY
WEAK/MODERATE CAPE VALUES. AS THE WEDGE SETS UP ON SUN...PRECIP WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND CONFINED MAINLY TO WESTERN UPSLOPE AREAS BY SUN
AFTERNOON. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON
SAT...ESPECIALLY OVER PIEDMONT AREAS. WITH WEDGE CONDITIONS ON
SUNDAY...WILL FAVOR MODEL RAWBLEND FOR TEMPS WHICH INDICATES WELL
BELOW CLIMO MAX TEMPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT THURSDAY...THE LATEST GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGHOUT
THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD...THOUGH THERE IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT
ON THE TIMING OF A STRONG FROPA SOMETIME BETWEEN TUE AND WED. HAVE
LEANED MORE TOWARDS TO THE PROGRESSIVE GFS/CMC SOLUTIONS THAT ARE
FAVORED BY THE WPC.
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT SUN NIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO SWLY BY MON AS A
DEEP UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS WHILE AN UPPER
RIDGE OF HIGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AS THE TROUGH
PROGRESSES EASTWARD...THE FASTER GFS CLOSE OFF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY AROUND 12Z TUE...AND LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY AROUND 00Z WED WITH ITS ASSOCIATED NEUTRALLY
TILED TROUGH AXIS CROSSING THE REGION BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z
WED...OFFSHORE BY THU 00Z. THE OLD 00Z ECMWF IS AROUND 18-24HRS
SLOWER...WITH THE CMC COMPROMISING BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF. AN
UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THU INTO FRI.
AT THE SURFACE...A PERSISTENT SURFACE WEDGE OVER THE CWA WILL WEAKEN
AND DISSIPATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON AS THE CENTER OF PARENT HIGH
MIGRATES OFF THE NE COAST AND A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. THE FASTER GFS BRINGS A S-N ORIENTED FRONT TO THE EXTREME
WESTERN ZONES OF THE CWA BY AROUND 12Z TUE AND PROGRESSES EASTWARD
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH 00Z WED WHILE THE ECMWF IS AROUND 24HRS
SLOWER SUGGESTING THE FROPA WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 00Z WED AND 12Z WED.
THE CMC HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE FASTER GFS SOLUTION. HAVE LEANED MORE
TOWARDS THE FASTER GFS/CMC SOLUTIONS FEATURING 60/70 POPS ON TUE AND
RAMPING DOWN THOUGH TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED. THE NEW 12S GFS
CONTINUES TO SHOW IMPRESSIVE LLVL 0-3KM BULK WIND SHEAR OF 40-50KTS
WITH SBCAPE AROUND 300-500J/KG DURING THE FROPA. ALSO...PW VALUES
WILL REACH CLOSE TO 2 INCHES FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THE ECMWF HAS
LESSER DEGREE OF SBCAPE/WIND SHEAR. IN ANY RATE...THERE IS THE TREAT
OF HIGH SHEAR LOW CAPE SEVERE WEATHER AS WELL AS HEAVY RAIN/FLASH
FLOODING. WILL HIGHLIGHT THESE ON THE HWO GIVEN BETTER MODELS RUN TO
RUN CONSISTENCY. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATE WED INTO THU WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL MON/TUE WITH AROUND 3-5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WED/THU.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
21Z UPDATE...SOME VARIABLILITY IN THE SW QUADRANT IS LIKELY TO
CONTINUE LATE THIS AFTN UNTIL MIXING CEASES AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE COAST AGAIN PREVAILS. WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL S OVERNIGHT.
KAVL MAY SEE SOME CONVECTIVE SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HRS BUT
CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO MENTION TS AT THIS TIME.
AT KCLT...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE 18Z TAF PERIOD...WITH LIGHT
SE TO SW WIND. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CIRRUS AGAIN THIS
EVENING DUE TO CONVECTION UPSTREAM TO THE WEST. FRIDAY MORNING...AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN MORE VFR-BASED CUMULUS. SW WINDS
WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY BUT STILL LESS THAN 10 KTS. ISOLD SHRA AND
TSRA MAY DEVELOP ACRS THE PIEDMONT FRIDAY AFTN. BUT THAT IS BEYOND
THE 18Z PERIOD.
ELSEWHERE...LLVL FLOW IS INCREASING OUT OF THE SW...ADVECTING
MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA. THERE IS ALREADY A FAIR AMOUNT OF
CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND WEST OF KAVL/KGSP/KLUX LINE. SCATTERED
SHRA AND TSRA ARE DEVELOPING ACRS ERN TN AND NE GA. THERE IS A CHC
THAT SOME WILL GET INVOF THE KAVL/KAND SITES. LESS CERTAIN TO
KGMU/KGSP. AT TIME OF ISSUANCE...I WAS NOT CONFIDENT ENUF TO ADD
MENTION OR TEMPO...BUT WILL RE-EVALUATE AND MAKE QUICK AMD SOON.
TONIGHT...CONVECTION SHUD WANE...BUT LINGERING SHRA MAY CONTINUE
ACRS THE NC MTNS WITHIN MOIST SW FLOW. GUIDANCE IS TRENDING
FOGGIER...AS HIGHER DEWPTS ADVECT INTO THE AREA. WILL ADD SOME VSBY
RESTRICTIONS AT KHKY/KAND/KAVL. KAVL HAS BEST CHC OF IFR VALLEY FOG.
OUTLOOK...ASIDE FOR POSSIBLE MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG/CIGS...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL GENERALLY THROUGH SATURDAY. A
BACKDOOR FRONT AND DEVELOPING COLD AIR DAMMING ON SUNDAY WILL LIKELY
BRING RESTRICTIONS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
20-02Z 02-08Z 08-14Z 14-20Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 94% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 95% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 98% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...ARK/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...JOH
AVIATION...ARK/WIMBERLEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
146 AM EDT THU OCT 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL ACROSS TENNESSEE VALLEY TO
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THURSDAY NIGHT...AND LINGER JUST TO OUR
NORTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY LIFT NORTH AND
WEAKEN EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 140 AM EDT THURSDAY...COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MIGRATE
SOUTH INTO THE I85 CORRIDOR LEADING TO PREDOMINANT LIGHT/CALM
NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE NC ZONES. THE UPSTATE AND NORTHEAST GA
ZONES ARE EXPECTED TO EXPERIENCE THE NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT WITHIN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE GOING CALM JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK. SKIES REMAIN
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AS MID/HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CONTINUES TO STREAM
IN ALOFT FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN AL AND GA.
EXPECTING THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT BEFORE
GRADUALLY SCT OUT AFTER DAYBREAK. AS FOR THE FORECAST...MADE SLIGHT
TWEAKS TO SKY ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS TO REFLECT LATEST
SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
1015 PM UPDATE...NEARLY STATIONARY COLD FRONT REMAINS NEAR THE NC/SC
BORDER. THE LAST OF THE DIURNAL CONVECTION UPSTREAM ALONG THE FRONT
OVER NRN AL/GA HAS NEARLY ALL CEASED AND IT NO LONGER APPEARS THERE
IS ANY THREAT OF A CELL PROPAGATING INTO OUR NE GA ZONES. DROPPED
POPS TO VERY NEAR ZERO ACRS THE CWFA THRU THU MRNG. LATEST MODEL
RUNS MAY HAVE PICKED UP ON THE STALLING OF THE FRONT AND TRENDED A
BIT WARMER FOR MIN TEMPS TONIGHT. SHORT-TERM CONSENSUS PRODUCT ALSO
SUGGESTED THE HRLY TEMPS WERE A COUPLE DEGREES TOO COOL. THUS
REVISED A BIT BASED ON THE NEWER GUIDANCE.
CONDITIONS ARE SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR STANDING WAVE CIRRUS TO FORM
IN THE LEE OF THE APPS. DEEP NW FLOW...A MTN TOP INVERSION SEEN ON
KRNK RAOB...AND SOME MOISTURE ADVECTION AS SEEN ON WV IMAGERY. WRF
SIMULATED IR IMAGES FOR THE OVERNIGHT AS WELL AS HIGH CLOUD FRACTION
FIELDS FROM 23Z HRRR BOTH SEEM TO BE PICKING UP ON THIS. SO I
INCREASED SKY COVER IN THE NC MTN/FOOTHILLS ZONES LATE TONIGHT.
AS OF 215 PM...FAST NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
NEAR TERM. AT THE SURFACE...THE WEAK FRONT NOW EXITING THE AREA TO
THE SE WILL CONTINUE ON TO THE COAST OVERNIGHT. A WEAK AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE QUICKLY SE AND SETTLE OVER THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT AND THEN MOVE TO THE COAST BY THU AFTERNOON.
GENERALLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT. AS THE
HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST ON THU...WEAK WARM ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP.
GFS MODEL TIME HEIGHT SHOWS MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...SO A SLOW INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL
OCCUR. MODELS SHOW SOME LIGHT QPF RESPONSE OVER THE SW MOUNTAINS
LATE IN THE DAY APPARENTLY DUE TO UPSLOPE FLOW AND AN APPROACHING
UPPER IMPULSE. WILL ALLOW POPS TO INCREASE INTO THE SLIGHT CHC RANGE
OVER THE SW MOUNTAINS LATE IN THE DAY TO ACCOUNT FOR PERHAPS A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS.
EVEN THOUGH TEMPS WILL COOL OVERNIGHT WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING...LOWS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT A CATEGORY OR SO ABOVE CLIMO PER A
A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE. FORECAST HIGHS ON THU WILL LIKEWISE BE
ABOUT A CATEGORY ABOVE AVE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO EARLIER THOUGHTS ABOUT
THE SHORT RANGE. THE MODELS STILL DEPICT A CONFLUENT ZONE ACROSS THE
OH VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC DOWNSTREAM OF A SPLIT IN THE FLOW OVER THE
PLAINS. THE RESULTING ZONAL FLOW OVER THE EAST WILL ESSENTIALLY TRAP
A SURFACE BOUNDARY STRUNG OUT WEST TO EAST ACROSS MAINLY THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS/MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE FRONT SHOULD REMAIN ACTIVE ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES EJECT FROM THE TROF
TO THE WEST AND MOVE PAST MAINLY TO OUR NORTH. ALTHO THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE THE ACTUAL FRONTAL ZONE WILL STALL...IT
SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH TO THE NORTH TO KEEP A NORTH TO SOUTH GRADIENT
OF POP ACROSS THE REGION STARTING FRIDAY MORNING. THE GFS IS PERHAPS
A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH BRINGING THE BOUNDARY DOWN AS A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT INTO THE NW PIEDMONT LATE SATURDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW AT THIS POINT. PRECIP CHANCES CLIMB INTO THE CHANCE RANGE FOR
ALL BUT THE LAKELANDS BY THE END OF SATURDAY...AS THE MAIN SHORT
WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AS THE SPLIT FLOW BREAKS DOWN. HAVE
KEPT PRECIP PROBABILITY BELOW THE LIKELY RANGE FOR THE TIME
BEING...BUT THE TREND IS UPWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER BASED ON
THE NEW GUIDANCE. TEMPS WERE KEPT ABOUT TWO CATEGORIES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM WEDNESDAY...THERE IS STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF
DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE VARIOUS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES
WITH A DEEP TROF THAT IS EXPECTED TO DIG ACRS THE CENTER OF THE
CONUS SUN-MON...THEN TRACK ACRS THE EASTERN STATES TUE-WED. THE
GFS/GEFS AND CMC HAVE A LESS DEEP/MORE PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE THAN
THE ECMWF/ECENS/UKMET SOLNS...WITH THE OP ECMWF THE DEEPEST/SLOWEST
OF THE GUIDANCE. THE LATEST WPC PREFERENCE IS FOR A COMPROMISE
BETWEEN THE TWO CAMPS...WITH A LEAN TOWARD THE ECMWF. THIS RESULTS
IN QUITE A DYNAMIC SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE CWFA AS IT BECOMES
NEGATIVELY TILTED ON TUESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLONE WILL TRACK
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES...AND PUSH A COLD FRONT
ACRS THE CWFA. THE EXACT TIMING IS STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT THERE SHUD
BE NO WEDGE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND WITH SUCH A DEEP
SYSTEM...GULF MOISTURE AND INSTBY SHUD BE PRESENT. THERE WILL ALSO
BE PLENTY OF SHEAR...WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR 50-60 KM OVERLAPPING
400-1000 J/KG MUCAPE. BLENDING IN THE HPCGUIDE POP...I HAVE HIGH-END
CHC TO LIKELY POPS DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...TAPERING OFF TUESDAY
NIGHT. IF THE ECWMF VERIFIES...THERE IS A DECENT CHC OF A LINEAR
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM THAT MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE. CONFIDENCE IS STILL
TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE HWO AT THIS TIME.
AS THE UPPER TROF QUICKLY LIFTS NE OUT OF THE AREA
WEDNESDAY...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF
SITES. OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SLIDE TO THE SOUTH
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT/CALM NORTHERLY WINDS PREVAILING AT ALL
SITES. THUS...INITIALIZED ALL TAFS WITH SUCH UNDER SCT/BKN HIGH
LEVEL CIRRUS STREAMING IN ALOFT FROM REMNANT FRONTAL CONVECTION
ACROSS NORTHERN AL AND GA. FLOW WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST
BY MORNING ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT AND SC UPSTATE BEFORE VEERING
SOUTHERLY AROUND MIDDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SLIDES TO THE
EAST. FLOW WILL LIKELY REMAIN LGT/VRB AT KAVL AFTER DAYBREAK BEFORE
EVENTUALLY INCREASING OUT OF THE SOUTH BY MIDDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SLIDING SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL WARRANT CONTINUED
MID/HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS WITH ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE HIGH
TERRAIN TO WARRANT LOW VFR CIGS. CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION
REMAINS LOW ENOUGH TO FORGO ANY WX INCLUSION AT ANY SITE.
OUTLOOK...ASIDE FOR POSSIBLE MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG/CIGS...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL GENERALLY THROUGH SATURDAY. A
BACKDOOR FRONT AND DEVELOPING COLD AIR DAMMING ON SUNDAY WILL LIKELY
BRING RESTRICTIONS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
05-11Z 11-17Z 17-23Z 23-05Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% MED 72%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% MED 72%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% MED 72%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% MED 72%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% MED 72%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% MED 72%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ARK
NEAR TERM...CDG/LG/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...CDG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
434 PM CDT THU OCT 9 2014
.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...THE BOUNDARY JUST TO THE NORTH OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR STORMS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THERE
IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY AS FAR AS THE TIMING FOR PRECIP
TONIGHT AND HOW FAR SOUTH STORMS WILL SINK. LEANING TOWARD THE
SOLUTION BEING PRESENTED BY NSSL`S 4KM WRF AS IT APPEARS TO BE
INITIALIZING BETTER THAN THE HRRR TODAY...WHICH MEANS SOME SHOWERS
AND STORMS COULD SNEAK IN BEFORE MIDNIGHT IN THE NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES...WITH THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA LIKELY SEEING STORMS
BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 7AM. MONDAY MORNING LOOKS SIMILAR TO THIS
MORNING WITH MODELS INDICATING THE QUASI STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SINKING SOUTH ACROSS MIDDLE TN AND A SURFACE LOW
TRAVELLING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF TN. STRONG STORMS WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY ON FRIDAY...WITH THE THREAT BEING THE HIGHEST NORTH OF
I-40 BEFORE NOON AND SOUTH OF I-40 AFTER NOON. PWAT VALUES REMAIN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...AROUND 1.8 INCHES FOR MOST OF THE AREA
DURING THE SHORT TERM...THIS COUPLED WITH THE WEST TO EAST
MOVEMENT OF STORMS POSSIBLY OVER THE SAME AREA OVER THE NEXT 3
DAYS COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH THE
THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUING. SOUTHERLY
FLOW RETURNS ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF A STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. THE GFS INDICATES A SUBTLE NEGATIVE TILT TO THE TROUGH
AFTER IT CROSSES THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...WILL BE SOMETHING TO
WATCH AS WE GET CLOSER TO MONDAY. THE MAIN THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
WILL BE MONDAY EVENING. 850MB WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 65 KNOTS AS
THE FRONT APPROACHES. SOUNDINGS INDICATE DECENT LOW LEVEL
SHEAR AND BULK SHEAR...BUT LIMITED CAPE VALUES WITH THIS SYSTEM.
PWATS WILL SURGE AGAIN AND BRING A CHANCE OF HEAVY RAINFALL MONDAY
NIGHT...WPC QPF TOTALS ARE AROUND 6 INCHES FOR THE NORTHWESTERN
PORTION OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONDITIONS
AS THEY UNFOLD FOR FLOODING POTENTIAL. CONDITIONS DRY OUT AFTER
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY AND REMAIN QUIET THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 64 77 59 68 / 60 80 70 70
CLARKSVILLE 63 74 53 65 / 70 80 70 60
CROSSVILLE 60 73 61 68 / 40 80 70 60
COLUMBIA 62 77 57 70 / 30 60 70 60
LAWRENCEBURG 61 78 60 72 / 30 60 60 60
WAVERLY 62 75 57 66 / 70 80 70 60
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
11
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MORRISTOWN TN
728 AM EDT THU OCT 9 2014
.AVIATION...
VLIFR CONDITIONS AT TYS AND CHA DUE TO FOG AND LOW-CLOUDS.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR CONDITIONS BY 14Z. AN AREA OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER WEST KENTUCKY IS MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST.
LATEST HRRR MODEL SHOWS THIS AREA OF CONVECTION MOVING INTO EAST
TENNESSEE THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT CHA AND TYS. HAVE KEEP VCTS
AND VCSH BETWEEN 17-22Z.
A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IN THE EVENING...BUT MODELS SHOW ANOTHER
ROUND OF CONVECTION AFTER MIDNIGHT.
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1229 AM CDT THU OCT 9 2014
.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 938 PM CDT WED OCT 8 2014/
UPDATE...
LOW TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY REACHED THE FORECAST LOWS IN A
COUPLE OF SPOTS...THUS DECREASED THEM SLIGHTLY ALTHOUGH DO NOT
EXPECT THEM TO DROP MUCH MORE WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE REGION. ALSO ADDED AREAS OF FOG FOR TONIGHT WITH SMALL
TEMPERATURE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS AND PATCHY FOG ALREADY DEVELOPING.
JCL
DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CDT WED OCT 8 2014/
UPDATE...
UPDATED TO INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT MAINLY FROM NORTHEAST AR AND THE MO BOOTHEEL INTO MUCH OF
WEST TN. ALREADY SEEING DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTHERN MO THAT ARE MOVING EAST SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD NORTHEAST AR
AND THE MO BOOTHEEL. THE HRRR SHOWS THIS CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD INTO THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA...MAINLY ALONG
AND TO THE NORTH A FRONTAL SYSTEM LOCATED FROM JUST SOUTH OF
JONESBORO AR TO JUST NORTH OF SAVANNAH TN. THIS FRONT WILL PUSH
SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD AS A WARM FRONT OVERNIGHT. MADE A FEW OTHER
MINOR CHANGES TO THE LOW TEMPERATURES...SKY COVER...WIND AND SURFACE
DEW POINTS FOR TONIGHT. UPDATED GRIDS AND ZONES HAVE ALREADY BEEN
SENT. ALSO UPDATED THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK TO MENTION THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT WITH STRONG GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.
JCL
DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 608 PM CDT WED OCT 8 2014/
/ISSUED ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
A CLUSTER OF STORMS IN NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI SHOWED A WEAKENING
TREND EARLY...BUT INTENSIFIED SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON. THE CLUSTER
COULD PRODUCE SOME SEVERE WEATHER AS IT PROGRESSES TO THE EAST.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWEST
TENNESSEE/SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. THIS WILL BE NORTH OF A STALLED
FRONT DRAPED FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES.
THE FRONT WILL WOBBLE TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY...WITH SPOTTY
PRECIPITATION REMAINING IN THE FORECAST. IT WILL NOT FEEL
MUCH LIKE FALL...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH FRIDAY...
AND THIS WILL PUSH THE FRONT BACK TO THE SOUTH. COOLER AIR
WILL BE FOUND BEHIND THE FRONT...AND THIS WILL NUDGE INTO MUCH
WARMER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION.
IN THE END...A STRONG TEMPERATURE GRADIENT/BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL
SET UP ACROSS THE FRONT TO END THE PERIOD...WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE
POOLING AROUND THE FRONT. SOME OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE PROVIDED BY
THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE SIMON FROM THE PACIFIC. THERE WILL BE
LOTS OF CLOUDS...AND LIKELY CHANCES FOR RAIN.
LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS SHAPING UP FOR THE LAST PART OF THE
WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAIN AND SOME SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE.
IN THIS SET UP...DEEP LAYER SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION
AND WILL PROVIDE AMPLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AS A STRENGTHENING
UPPER LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MEANWHILE...A
QUASISTATIONARY FRONT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA ON
SUNDAY...AND WILL ACT AS A FOCUS FOR A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK
AS A SURFACE LOWS DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE THE DEEPENING H500 TROUGH.
THE SURFACE SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN AND TRACK ALONG THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY. A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW RAPIDLY BEHIND IT AS THE UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM BEGINS TO TILT NEGATIVELY. GIVEN THE ABUNDANT
MOISTURE...INSTABILITY...AND WINDS ENERGY...THERE WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...AS WELL AS
SOME FLASH FLOODING.
HOWEVER...IT SHOULD BE MENTIONED THAT THERE IS SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCE IN THE LONG TERM MODELS THAT COULD EFFECT THE EXACT
LOCATION AND MODE OF SEVERE WEATHER.
DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER SHOULD RETURN BY MID WEEK TO ROUND OUT THE
END OF THE FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF SET
LATEST HRRR SHOWS DEVELOPMENT OF SHRAS/TSRAS ACROSS NE ARKANSAS OVER
THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. ACTIVITY SHOULD BLOSSOM AND SPREAD INTO NW TN.
WILL INTRODUCED VCTS WORDING WITH TEMPO GROUPS FOR MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS AT KJBR AND KMKL. PATCHY FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP AT KTUP
REDUCING VSBYS TO MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR THROUGH 13Z. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS TO OCCUR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS WILL BECOME SSW AT 8-10 KTS BY 15Z.
SPEEDS WILL DROP TO 5 KTS OR LESS AFTER 00Z.
KRM
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AMARILLO TX
936 PM CDT FRI OCT 10 2014
.UPDATE...
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND POST FRONTAL STRATUS REMAINS FIRMLY IN
PLACE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. A DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS WILL GREATLY
LIMIT ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE AREA...SO REMOVED THE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT. THE 00Z KAMA RAOB INDICATES A DEEP LAYER OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND WITH PATCHY LIGHT FOG AND DRIZZLE ALREADY BEING REPORTED
OVER THE AREA...HAVE GONE AND INSERTED A MENTION THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED SKY COVER UP AND INCREASED LOW TEMPS OVER
THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS AS EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER SHOULD PREVENT LOWS
FROM FALLING MUCH BELOW THE 40 DEGREE MARK.
CLK
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 723 PM CDT FRI OCT 10 2014/
AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AT ALL
THE TAF SITES UNTIL ROUGHLY 15Z. CEILINGS BETWEEN 500 AND 1000
FT...WITH POSSIBLE BR AND DZ LOWERING VISIBILITIES TO 4 TO 5 MILES AT
TIMES. CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT TO BRIEFLY MVFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY
MORNING BEFORE VFR CONDITIONS ARE ESTABLISHED BY 18Z AT ALL SITES.
NF
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CDT FRI OCT 10 2014/
DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NEW
MEXICO. A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH NORTH WINDS
GUSTING AROUND 30 MPH. WINDS WILL DECREASE GRADUALLY THIS EVENING AS
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. LOW STRATUS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT
AND LAST INTO THE MORNING BEFORE CLEARING BY LATE MORNING OR MIDDAY.
THIS WILL HELP KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S AT
MOST LOCATIONS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO THE
FAR SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER IN THIS AREA INTO THE EVENING.
PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT EAST OVERNIGHT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
TOMORROW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MID
OCTOBER.
THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL UNDERGO SIGNIFICANT AMPLIFICATION THIS
WEEKEND AS A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EVOLVES OVER THE PLAIN BY
SUNDAY. THIS WILL FORCE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE PANHANDLES
LEADING TO A COMPLICATED AND POTENTIALLY ACTIVE WEATHER DAY ON
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON
TIMING/POSITION RESULTING IN INCREASED CONFIDENCE ON WINDY
CONDITIONS. DURING THE AFTERNOON DEEP MIXING SHOULD RESULT IN PEAK
WIND GUSTS IN THE 30-40 MPH RANGE BEHIND THE EASTWARD MIXING DRYLINE
AND SOUTH OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK.
LOW LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE AND STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO AT LEAST MARGINAL INSTABILITY
FOR A BRIEF PERIOD LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS COMBINED
WITH RATHER INTENSE FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL RESULT IN SOME
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE PANHANDLES
LATE SUNDAY. DEEPER MORE INTENSE CONVECTION SHOULD BE JUST EAST OF
THE PANHANDLES WHERE MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION IS
SHOWN BY THE MODELS. NEVERTHELESS SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS ON
THE FINER DETAILS SUCH AS THE POSITION OF THE DRYLINE AND QUALITY OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WHICH HAS IMPLICATIONS FOR STORM SEVERITY.
THE FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO POTENTIAL FOR STRONG POST FRONTAL NORTHERLY
WINDS LATER SUNDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. HAVE TRENDED WIND SPEEDS UP
FOR BOTH PRE-FRONTAL AND POST-FRONTAL.
DIFFERENCES IN MEDIUM RANGE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE THAT APPEARS
EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR
THE PANHANDLES. THE GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
THAN THE ECMWF AND GEM AND CONSEQUENTLY IS FASTER WITH MOVING THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE AREA. ASIDE FROM SOME UNCERTAINTY IN
TEMPERATURE FORECAST...THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT ISSUES IN THE LONG
TERM. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD OCCUR FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK
WITH DRY CONDITIONS.
BRB
FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY/S PATTERN WILL PROMOTE WARM/DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS.
AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL FALL INTO THE 15-20 PERCENT RANGE OVER THE
WESTERN PANHANDLES WITH SUSTAINED WINDS APPROACHING 20 MPH /20 FT/.
HOWEVER CONTINUED MOIST/GREEN VEGETATION WITH NEAR NORMAL ERC/S
DURING THE ONGOING GROWING SEASON WILL PRECLUDE A SIGNIFICANT
WILDLAND FIRE RISK.
LINDLEY
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AMARILLO TX
723 PM CDT FRI OCT 10 2014
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AT ALL
THE TAF SITES UNTIL ROUGHLY 15Z. CEILINGS BETWEEN 500 AND 1000
FT...WITH POSSIBLE BR AND DZ LOWERING VISIBILITIES TO 4 TO 5 MILES AT
TIMES. CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT TO BRIEFLY MVFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY
MORNING BEFORE VFR CONDITIONS ARE ESTABLISHED BY 18Z AT ALL SITES.
NF
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CDT FRI OCT 10 2014/
DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NEW
MEXICO. A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH NORTH WINDS
GUSTING AROUND 30 MPH. WINDS WILL DECREASE GRADUALLY THIS EVENING AS
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. LOW STRATUS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT
AND LAST INTO THE MORNING BEFORE CLEARING BY LATE MORNING OR MIDDAY.
THIS WILL HELP KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S AT
MOST LOCATIONS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO THE
FAR SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER IN THIS AREA INTO THE EVENING.
PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT EAST OVERNIGHT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
TOMORROW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MID
OCTOBER.
THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL UNDERGO SIGNIFICANT AMPLIFICATION THIS
WEEKEND AS A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EVOLVES OVER THE PLAIN BY
SUNDAY. THIS WILL FORCE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE PANHANDLES
LEADING TO A COMPLICATED AND POTENTIALLY ACTIVE WEATHER DAY ON
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON
TIMING/POSITION RESULTING IN INCREASED CONFIDENCE ON WINDY
CONDITIONS. DURING THE AFTERNOON DEEP MIXING SHOULD RESULT IN PEAK
WIND GUSTS IN THE 30-40 MPH RANGE BEHIND THE EASTWARD MIXING DRYLINE
AND SOUTH OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK.
LOW LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE AND STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO AT LEAST MARGINAL INSTABILITY
FOR A BRIEF PERIOD LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS COMBINED
WITH RATHER INTENSE FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL RESULT IN SOME
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE PANHANDLES
LATE SUNDAY. DEEPER MORE INTENSE CONVECTION SHOULD BE JUST EAST OF
THE PANHANDLES WHERE MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION IS
SHOWN BY THE MODELS. NEVERTHELESS SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS ON
THE FINER DETAILS SUCH AS THE POSITION OF THE DRYLINE AND QUALITY OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WHICH HAS IMPLICATIONS FOR STORM SEVERITY.
THE FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO POTENTIAL FOR STRONG POST FRONTAL NORTHERLY
WINDS LATER SUNDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. HAVE TRENDED WIND SPEEDS UP
FOR BOTH PRE-FRONTAL AND POST-FRONTAL.
DIFFERENCES IN MEDIUM RANGE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE THAT APPEARS
EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR
THE PANHANDLES. THE GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
THAN THE ECMWF AND GEM AND CONSEQUENTLY IS FASTER WITH MOVING THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE AREA. ASIDE FROM SOME UNCERTAINTY IN
TEMPERATURE FORECAST...THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT ISSUES IN THE LONG
TERM. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD OCCUR FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK
WITH DRY CONDITIONS.
BRB
FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY/S PATTERN WILL PROMOTE WARM/DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS.
AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL FALL INTO THE 15-20 PERCENT RANGE OVER THE
WESTERN PANHANDLES WITH SUSTAINED WINDS APPROACHING 20 MPH /20 FT/.
HOWEVER CONTINUED MOIST/GREEN VEGETATION WITH NEAR NORMAL ERC/S
DURING THE ONGOING GROWING SEASON WILL PRECLUDE A SIGNIFICANT
WILDLAND FIRE RISK.
LINDLEY
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
06/05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1249 PM CDT THU OCT 9 2014
.AVIATION...
MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH FRIDAY CENTER AROUND MVFR STRATUS/FOG
DEVELOPMENT AT KCLL...KUTS...KCXO AND KLBX LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING AS WELL AS SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY.
MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED DRIER...SUBSIDENT AIR WORKING
IT/S WAY EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND A WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER
EAST TEXAS. LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW SEABREEZE CONVECTION
DEVELOPING MAINLY EAST OF THE AREA TERMINALS WHERE BETTER
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY RESIDES... AND HI-RESOULTION MODELS CONTINUE
THIS TREND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CAN/T RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER
APPROACHING THE I-45 CORRIDOR TAF SITES... BUT LOW CONFIDENCE
PRECLUDES MENTION AT THIS TIME. AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED IF TRENDS
CHANGE. LOW CIGS/FOG LOOK TO DEVELOP AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AT THE
AFOREMENTIONED SITES BEFORE CLEARING BY MID-MORNING. OTHERWISE...
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA MAY IMPACT TAF SITES TOMORROW AS INCREASING
GULF MOISTURE STREAMS INLAND.
14
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1019 AM CDT THU OCT 9 2014/
DISCUSSION...
AN ANALYSIS OF THE 12Z SURFACE AND UPPER LEVELS SHOWED A CAPPED
AIRMASS OVER MOST OF SE TEXAS...WITH THE FAR EASTERN SET OF
COUNTIES LESS CAPPED. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WAS IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE
THROUGH 700 MB. AT 500 MB...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING EASTWARD
OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND WAS SHOWN BY THE WATER VAPOR TO BE
MOVING OVER THE COUNTIES NEAR THE SABINE AT 10 AM. A RIDGE WAS
OVERHEAD AT 300 AND 200 MB WITH THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE LOCATED
OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MEXICO.
THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS KEEP THE BEST RAIN CHANCES ALONG AND
EAST OF LIBERTY AND CHAMBERS COUNTIES THROUGHOUT TODAY.
ACTUALLY...THE HRRR VERIFIED WELL AND ONLY BROUGHT ISOLATED
CONVECTION OVER AREAS WEST OF THE COLORADO RIVER THROUGHOUT THE
DAY...AND INTO THE COASTAL AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WAS
BETTER COVERAGE ON THE ARW AND NMM...HOWEVER THESE WERE ISOLATED
AS WELL.
PW/S ON THE 12Z UPPER AIR OBSERVED SOUNDINGS RANGED FROM 1.2 AT
KFWD...1.3 AT KSHV...AND 1.6 AT KLCH AND KCRP. THE NAMBUFR
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWED HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD REACH BETWEEN 90
AND 92 ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT
THIS TIME.
40
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 72 91 73 84 66 / 10 20 20 60 30
HOUSTON (IAH) 74 90 73 87 71 / 10 20 10 50 20
GALVESTON (GLS) 78 87 77 86 75 / 10 20 10 20 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
1229 PM CDT THU OCT 9 2014
.AVIATION...
AN UPPER LOW OVER THE 4-CORNERS WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EWD THE
NEXT 24-HOURS. AS IT DOES QUITE A BIT OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL STREAM AHEAD OF IT...MAINLY ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WHILE
SIMULTANEOUSLY AT THE SFC A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SWD THROUGH THE
PANHANDLE LIKELY ARRIVING AT THE TWO TERMINALS BTWN 12Z AND 15Z
FRIDAY. PRECIP TONIGHT SHOULD STAY NORTH WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE
AND LIFT. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE SOME SHOWERS SAG SWD WITH
THE FRONT EARLY FRIDAY TOWARD KCDS BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO
INSERT MENTION ATTM. OF BETTER CHANCE IS POST-FRONT LOW CLOUDS
THERE. COULD ALSO SEE SOME PRE-FRONTAL STRATUS ADVECTED NWD TOWARD
KLBB...BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INSERT IN THAT TAF ATTM.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 AM CDT THU OCT 9 2014/
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE AT BOTH TERMINALS. THERE MAY BE SOME
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.
JORDAN
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM CDT THU OCT 9 2014/
SHORT TERM...
00Z UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS A TIGHT
CLOSED LOW MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH PRECIPITATION EXTENDED ACROSS ARIZONA INTO
NEW MEXICO. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK SURFACE TROF WAS LOCATED ACROSS
EASTERN NEW MEXICO. SURFACE WIND REMAINED OUT OF THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WHICH WAS SLOWLY PULLING IN HIGHER LEVELS OF MOISTURE
ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS AND SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS. REGIONAL RADAR
MOSAIC SHOWS AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO
MOVING NORTHEAST BUT CURRENT TRAJECTORY SHOWS THAT THESE SHOULD
SKIRT JUST NORTHWEST OF THE AREA.
MODELS KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR THE BETTER PART OF TODAY WITH HIGH
CLOUDS CONTINUING TO STREAM ACROSS THE AREA. THE HRRR IS THE ONLY
MODEL WHICH SEEMS TO HAVE A HANDLE ON THE MORNING CONVECTION AND
KEEPS IT OUT OF THE AREA SO WILL KEEP THE FIRST 6-HOUR WINDOW OF THE
FORECAST DRY. THERE WERE A FEW MODELS THAT INDICATED SOME
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE AXIS OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AT
VARIOUS TIMES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. LOOKING AT
THE DETAILS...MOST OF THE MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR AREAS OF FORECAST
CONVECTION SHOW THAT THERE WILL BE A PRETTY STOUT CAP IN PLACE WITH
LIMITED AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY ALOFT. IN ADDITION...THE STRONGEST
DYNAMICS ALOFT WILL MOVE NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA AS A 50 TO 70
KNOT JET MOVES OVERHEAD PLACING THE LEFT EXIT REGION WELL NORTH OF
THE AREA. WITH THIS IN MIND...REMOVED LOW-END SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FOR THIS AFTERNOON IN THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON
WILL AGAIN BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AS
HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DROP WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL LOW THROUGH THE DAY.
RAIN CHANCES WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH TOWARDS THE
AREA. THE FRONT IS NOT FORECAST TO MAKE IT INTO OUR FORECAST AREA
UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE BUT ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE
AND BROAD SYNOPTIC-SCALE LIFT WILL SLOWLY INCREASE WHICH MAY HELP
PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT
AND COVERAGE NOT VERY WIDESPREAD INITIALLY BUT COVERAGE MAY INCREASE
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A BIT WARMER ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS WHERE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE THE GREATEST BUT RELATIVELY COOLER ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS.
JORDAN
LONG TERM...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS FOCUSED ON TWO COLD FRONTS AND TWO
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.
THE INITIAL EXCITEMENT WILL KICK OFF THE LONG TERM ON FRIDAY AS A
SOUTHWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND APPROACHING BUT WEAKENING
POSITIVELY-TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONVERGE ON THE SOUTH PLAINS.
THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE NWP REGARDING THE
SPEED OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH THE NAM ON THE FAST SIDE PUSHING THE
FRONT THROUGH THE CWA BETWEEN 12 AND 21Z...WHILE MOST OTHER GUIDANCE
IS ABOUT 3 TO 6 HOURS SLOWER. WE HAVE TENDED TO FAVOR THE CONSENSUS
OF SOLUTIONS...MEANING A LATER FROPA...THOUGH THIS IS SUBJECT TO
CHANGE...ESPECIALLY IF OUTFLOWS FROM POST-FRONTAL CONVECTION TO OUR
NORTH CAN GIVE THE FRONT AN EXTRA BOOST. THE FRONT TIMING/LOCATION
WILL BE CRITICAL AS MORE STABLE /COOLER AND DRIER/ AIR WILL QUICKLY
MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND LIMIT CONVECTIVE INTENSITY. GIVEN THE
PREFERRED SLOWER SOLUTION...IT STILL APPEARS THE SOUTHERN ZONES
WILL STAY IN THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH PEAK HEATING WHICH COULD SET
THE STAGE FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. IN ADDITION...PWATS NEAR 1.5
INCHES WILL PROMOTE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...THOUGH RELATIVELY
QUICK STORM MOTIONS AND THE SOUTHWARD SHIFTING FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
ALONG THE FRONT WILL LIMIT THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL AT ANY GIVEN
LOCATION. THE BEST UPPER SUPPORT WILL SWING ACROSS THE SOUTH
PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND WILL
SUPPORT SCATTERED CONVECTION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS
WELL...THOUGH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL BE MUTED SOMEWHAT WITH
LESS MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AVAILABLE. IT STILL APPEARS THE BEST
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN ZONES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND WE HAVE RAISED POPS INTO THE HIGH
CHANCE CATEGORY THERE...TAPERING BACK TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT TOWARD
THE TX/NM STATE LINE. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS COULD LINGER INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS...THOUGH THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS
WELL TO THE SOUTH AND THE UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATES OFF TO THE EAST.
SATURDAY WILL GENERALLY BE DRY...BUT IT WILL START OUT CLOUDY AND
COOL WITH A NORTHERLY BREEZE. THE CLOUDS WILL EVENTUAL BREAK THROUGH
THE DAY...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY PEAK IN THE 60S FOR MOST
SPOTS...PERHAPS A FEW LOWER 70S WHERE THE SUN APPEARS EARLIEST. IN
CONTRAST...SUNDAY WILL BRING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ALONG WITH GUSTY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THAT WILL BOOST HIGHS BACK INTO THE 80S. THIS
WARM UP WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS A STRONG JET DIVING THROUGH THE WEST
CARVES OUT A SHARP BUT PROGRESSIVE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTER OF
THE NATION. A FEW STORMS COULD DEVELOP ALONG A DIFFUSE DRYLINE IN
ADVANCE OF THIS STORM SYSTEM SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT CURRENT
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE BETTER/DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE JUST TO
THE EAST OF THE CWA BY PEAK HEATING. HOWEVER...THE STRONG UPPER
JET AND ASSOCIATED DPVA ALONG WITH OUR NEXT COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING FOR A FEW SHOWERS IN THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...SO ONLY
LIGHT RAIN AMOUNTS WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS NARROW
PRECIPITATION WINDOW. DRY WEATHER WILL FOLLOW THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER FROM THE
WEST.
AFTER THE WARM AND BREEZY SUNDAY...THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
KNOCK TEMPERATURES BACK BELOW AVERAGE...WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO
MAKE IT TO THE 70 DEGREE MARK MONDAY. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL
FOLLOW AS THE UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD THOUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK...THOUGH COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO OCCUR WITH A DRY
ATMOSPHERE RESIDE IN THE REGION.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 83 54 67 41 68 / 10 20 40 20 0
TULIA 84 54 69 44 68 / 10 20 40 30 10
PLAINVIEW 83 62 71 46 68 / 10 20 30 30 10
LEVELLAND 84 60 75 46 70 / 0 20 20 30 10
LUBBOCK 84 64 75 49 68 / 0 20 20 40 10
DENVER CITY 85 61 78 49 71 / 0 20 10 20 10
BROWNFIELD 86 61 77 49 70 / 0 20 20 30 10
CHILDRESS 87 65 74 50 68 / 10 20 50 40 10
SPUR 86 64 78 49 69 / 0 10 40 40 10
ASPERMONT 88 68 81 51 69 / 0 10 40 50 20
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1019 AM CDT THU OCT 9 2014
.DISCUSSION...
AN ANALYSIS OF THE 12Z SURFACE AND UPPER LEVELS SHOWED A CAPPED
AIRMASS OVER MOST OF SE TEXAS...WITH THE FAR EASTERN SET OF
COUNTIES LESS CAPPED. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WAS IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE
THROUGH 700 MB. AT 500 MB...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING EASTWARD
OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND WAS SHOWN BY THE WATER VAPOR TO BE
MOVING OVER THE COUNTIES NEAR THE SABINE AT 10 AM. A RIDGE WAS
OVERHEAD AT 300 AND 200 MB WITH THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE LOCATED
OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MEXICO.
THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS KEEP THE BEST RAIN CHANCES ALONG AND
EAST OF LIBERTY AND CHAMBERS COUNTIES THROUGHOUT TODAY.
ACTUALLY...THE HRRR VERIFIED WELL AND ONLY BROUGHT ISOLATED
CONVECTION OVER AREAS WEST OF THE COLORADO RIVER THROUGHOUT THE
DAY...AND INTO THE COASTAL AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WAS
BETTER COVERAGE ON THE ARW AND NMM...HOWEVER THESE WERE ISOLATED
AS WELL.
PW/S ON THE 12Z UPPER AIR OBSERVED SOUNDINGS RANGED FROM 1.2 AT
KFWD...1.3 AT KSHV...AND 1.6 AT KLCH AND KCRP. THE NAMBUFR
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWED HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD REACH BETWEEN 90
AND 92 ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT
THIS TIME.
40
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 90 72 91 73 84 / 20 10 20 20 60
HOUSTON (IAH) 91 74 90 73 87 / 20 10 20 10 50
GALVESTON (GLS) 87 78 87 77 86 / 20 10 20 10 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...47
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS LUBBOCK TX
621 AM CDT THU OCT 9 2014
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE AT BOTH TERMINALS. THERE MAY BE SOME
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.
JORDAN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM CDT THU OCT 9 2014/
SHORT TERM...
00Z UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS A TIGHT
CLOSED LOW MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH PRECIPITATION EXTENDED ACROSS ARIZONA INTO
NEW MEXICO. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK SURFACE TROF WAS LOCATED ACROSS
EASTERN NEW MEXICO. SURFACE WIND REMAINED OUT OF THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WHICH WAS SLOWLY PULLING IN HIGHER LEVELS OF MOISTURE
ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS AND SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS. REGIONAL RADAR
MOSAIC SHOWS AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO
MOVING NORTHEAST BUT CURRENT TRAJECTORY SHOWS THAT THESE SHOULD
SKIRT JUST NORTHWEST OF THE AREA.
MODELS KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR THE BETTER PART OF TODAY WITH HIGH
CLOUDS CONTINUING TO STREAM ACROSS THE AREA. THE HRRR IS THE ONLY
MODEL WHICH SEEMS TO HAVE A HANDLE ON THE MORNING CONVECTION AND
KEEPS IT OUT OF THE AREA SO WILL KEEP THE FIRST 6-HOUR WINDOW OF THE
FORECAST DRY. THERE WERE A FEW MODELS THAT INDICATED SOME
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE AXIS OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AT
VARIOUS TIMES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. LOOKING AT
THE DETAILS...MOST OF THE MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR AREAS OF FORECAST
CONVECTION SHOW THAT THERE WILL BE A PRETTY STOUT CAP IN PLACE WITH
LIMITED AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY ALOFT. IN ADDITION...THE STRONGEST
DYNAMICS ALOFT WILL MOVE NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA AS A 50 TO 70
KNOT JET MOVES OVERHEAD PLACING THE LEFT EXIT REGION WELL NORTH OF
THE AREA. WITH THIS IN MIND...REMOVED LOW-END SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FOR THIS AFTERNOON IN THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON
WILL AGAIN BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AS
HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DROP WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL LOW THROUGH THE DAY.
RAIN CHANCES WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH TOWARDS THE
AREA. THE FRONT IS NOT FORECAST TO MAKE IT INTO OUR FORECAST AREA
UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE BUT ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE
AND BROAD SYNOPTIC-SCALE LIFT WILL SLOWLY INCREASE WHICH MAY HELP
PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT
AND COVERAGE NOT VERY WIDESPREAD INITIALLY BUT COVERAGE MAY INCREASE
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A BIT WARMER ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS WHERE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE THE GREATEST BUT RELATIVELY COOLER ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS.
JORDAN
LONG TERM...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS FOCUSED ON TWO COLD FRONTS AND TWO
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.
THE INITIAL EXCITEMENT WILL KICK OFF THE LONG TERM ON FRIDAY AS A
SOUTHWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND APPROACHING BUT WEAKENING
POSITIVELY-TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONVERGE ON THE SOUTH PLAINS.
THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE NWP REGARDING THE
SPEED OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH THE NAM ON THE FAST SIDE PUSHING THE
FRONT THROUGH THE CWA BETWEEN 12 AND 21Z...WHILE MOST OTHER GUIDANCE
IS ABOUT 3 TO 6 HOURS SLOWER. WE HAVE TENDED TO FAVOR THE CONSENSUS
OF SOLUTIONS...MEANING A LATER FROPA...THOUGH THIS IS SUBJECT TO
CHANGE...ESPECIALLY IF OUTFLOWS FROM POST-FRONTAL CONVECTION TO OUR
NORTH CAN GIVE THE FRONT AN EXTRA BOOST. THE FRONT TIMING/LOCATION
WILL BE CRITICAL AS MORE STABLE /COOLER AND DRIER/ AIR WILL QUICKLY
MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND LIMIT CONVECTIVE INTENSITY. GIVEN THE
PREFERRED SLOWER SOLUTION...IT STILL APPEARS THE SOUTHERN ZONES
WILL STAY IN THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH PEAK HEATING WHICH COULD SET
THE STAGE FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. IN ADDITION...PWATS NEAR 1.5
INCHES WILL PROMOTE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...THOUGH RELATIVELY
QUICK STORM MOTIONS AND THE SOUTHWARD SHIFTING FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
ALONG THE FRONT WILL LIMIT THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL AT ANY GIVEN
LOCATION. THE BEST UPPER SUPPORT WILL SWING ACROSS THE SOUTH
PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND WILL
SUPPORT SCATTERED CONVECTION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS
WELL...THOUGH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL BE MUTED SOMEWHAT WITH
LESS MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AVAILABLE. IT STILL APPEARS THE BEST
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN ZONES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND WE HAVE RAISED POPS INTO THE HIGH
CHANCE CATEGORY THERE...TAPERING BACK TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT TOWARD
THE TX/NM STATE LINE. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS COULD LINGER INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS...THOUGH THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS
WELL TO THE SOUTH AND THE UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATES OFF TO THE EAST.
SATURDAY WILL GENERALLY BE DRY...BUT IT WILL START OUT CLOUDY AND
COOL WITH A NORTHERLY BREEZE. THE CLOUDS WILL EVENTUAL BREAK THROUGH
THE DAY...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY PEAK IN THE 60S FOR MOST
SPOTS...PERHAPS A FEW LOWER 70S WHERE THE SUN APPEARS EARLIEST. IN
CONTRAST...SUNDAY WILL BRING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ALONG WITH GUSTY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THAT WILL BOOST HIGHS BACK INTO THE 80S. THIS
WARM UP WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS A STRONG JET DIVING THROUGH THE WEST
CARVES OUT A SHARP BUT PROGRESSIVE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTER OF
THE NATION. A FEW STORMS COULD DEVELOP ALONG A DIFFUSE DRYLINE IN
ADVANCE OF THIS STORM SYSTEM SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT CURRENT
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE BETTER/DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE JUST TO
THE EAST OF THE CWA BY PEAK HEATING. HOWEVER...THE STRONG UPPER
JET AND ASSOCIATED DPVA ALONG WITH OUR NEXT COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING FOR A FEW SHOWERS IN THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...SO ONLY
LIGHT RAIN AMOUNTS WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS NARROW
PRECIPITATION WINDOW. DRY WEATHER WILL FOLLOW THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER FROM THE
WEST.
AFTER THE WARM AND BREEZY SUNDAY...THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
KNOCK TEMPERATURES BACK BELOW AVERAGE...WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO
MAKE IT TO THE 70 DEGREE MARK MONDAY. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL
FOLLOW AS THE UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD THOUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK...THOUGH COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO OCCUR WITH A DRY
ATMOSPHERE RESIDE IN THE REGION.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 83 54 67 41 68 / 10 20 40 20 0
TULIA 84 54 69 44 68 / 10 20 40 30 10
PLAINVIEW 83 62 71 46 68 / 10 20 30 30 10
LEVELLAND 84 60 75 46 70 / 0 20 20 30 10
LUBBOCK 84 64 75 49 68 / 0 20 20 40 10
DENVER CITY 85 61 78 49 71 / 0 20 10 20 10
BROWNFIELD 86 61 77 49 70 / 0 20 20 30 10
CHILDRESS 87 65 74 50 68 / 10 20 50 40 10
SPUR 86 64 78 49 69 / 0 10 40 40 10
ASPERMONT 88 68 81 51 69 / 0 10 40 50 20
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
401 AM CDT THU OCT 9 2014
.SHORT TERM...
00Z UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS A TIGHT
CLOSED LOW MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH PRECIPITATION EXTENDED ACROSS ARIZONA INTO
NEW MEXICO. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK SURFACE TROF WAS LOCATED ACROSS
EASTERN NEW MEXICO. SURFACE WIND REMAINED OUT OF THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WHICH WAS SLOWLY PULLING IN HIGHER LEVELS OF MOISTURE
ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS AND SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS. REGIONAL RADAR
MOSAIC SHOWS AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO
MOVING NORTHEAST BUT CURRENT TRAJECTORY SHOWS THAT THESE SHOULD
SKIRT JUST NORTHWEST OF THE AREA.
MODELS KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR THE BETTER PART OF TODAY WITH HIGH
CLOUDS CONTINUING TO STREAM ACROSS THE AREA. THE HRRR IS THE ONLY
MODEL WHICH SEEMS TO HAVE A HANDLE ON THE MORNING CONVECTION AND
KEEPS IT OUT OF THE AREA SO WILL KEEP THE FIRST 6-HOUR WINDOW OF THE
FORECAST DRY. THERE WERE A FEW MODELS THAT INDICATED SOME
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE AXIS OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AT
VARIOUS TIMES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. LOOKING AT
THE DETAILS...MOST OF THE MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR AREAS OF FORECAST
CONVECTION SHOW THAT THERE WILL BE A PRETTY STOUT CAP IN PLACE WITH
LIMITED AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY ALOFT. IN ADDITION...THE STRONGEST
DYNAMICS ALOFT WILL MOVE NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA AS A 50 TO 70
KNOT JET MOVES OVERHEAD PLACING THE LEFT EXIT REGION WELL NORTH OF
THE AREA. WITH THIS IN MIND...REMOVED LOW-END SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FOR THIS AFTERNOON IN THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON
WILL AGAIN BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AS
HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DROP WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL LOW THROUGH THE DAY.
RAIN CHANCES WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH TOWARDS THE
AREA. THE FRONT IS NOT FORECAST TO MAKE IT INTO OUR FORECAST AREA
UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE BUT ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE
AND BROAD SYNOPTIC-SCALE LIFT WILL SLOWLY INCREASE WHICH MAY HELP
PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT
AND COVERAGE NOT VERY WIDESPREAD INITIALLY BUT COVERAGE MAY INCREASE
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A BIT WARMER ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS WHERE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE THE GREATEST BUT RELATIVELY COOLER ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS.
JORDAN
&&
.LONG TERM...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS FOCUSED ON TWO COLD FRONTS AND TWO
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.
THE INITIAL EXCITEMENT WILL KICK OFF THE LONG TERM ON FRIDAY AS A
SOUTHWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND APPROACHING BUT WEAKENING
POSITIVELY-TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONVERGE ON THE SOUTH PLAINS.
THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE NWP REGARDING THE
SPEED OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH THE NAM ON THE FAST SIDE PUSHING THE
FRONT THROUGH THE CWA BETWEEN 12 AND 21Z...WHILE MOST OTHER GUIDANCE
IS ABOUT 3 TO 6 HOURS SLOWER. WE HAVE TENDED TO FAVOR THE CONSENSUS
OF SOLUTIONS...MEANING A LATER FROPA...THOUGH THIS IS SUBJECT TO
CHANGE...ESPECIALLY IF OUTFLOWS FROM POST-FRONTAL CONVECTION TO OUR
NORTH CAN GIVE THE FRONT AN EXTRA BOOST. THE FRONT TIMING/LOCATION
WILL BE CRITICAL AS MORE STABLE /COOLER AND DRIER/ AIR WILL QUICKLY
MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND LIMIT CONVECTIVE INTENSITY. GIVEN THE
PREFERRED SLOWER SOLUTION...IT STILL APPEARS THE SOUTHERN ZONES
WILL STAY IN THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH PEAK HEATING WHICH COULD SET
THE STAGE FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. IN ADDITION...PWATS NEAR 1.5
INCHES WILL PROMOTE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...THOUGH RELATIVELY
QUICK STORM MOTIONS AND THE SOUTHWARD SHIFTING FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
ALONG THE FRONT WILL LIMIT THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL AT ANY GIVEN
LOCATION. THE BEST UPPER SUPPORT WILL SWING ACROSS THE SOUTH
PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND WILL
SUPPORT SCATTERED CONVECTION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS
WELL...THOUGH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL BE MUTED SOMEWHAT WITH
LESS MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AVAILABLE. IT STILL APPEARS THE BEST
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN ZONES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND WE HAVE RAISED POPS INTO THE HIGH
CHANCE CATEGORY THERE...TAPERING BACK TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT TOWARD
THE TX/NM STATE LINE. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS COULD LINGER INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS...THOUGH THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS
WELL TO THE SOUTH AND THE UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATES OFF TO THE EAST.
SATURDAY WILL GENERALLY BE DRY...BUT IT WILL START OUT CLOUDY AND
COOL WITH A NORTHERLY BREEZE. THE CLOUDS WILL EVENTUAL BREAK THROUGH
THE DAY...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY PEAK IN THE 60S FOR MOST
SPOTS...PERHAPS A FEW LOWER 70S WHERE THE SUN APPEARS EARLIEST. IN
CONTRAST...SUNDAY WILL BRING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ALONG WITH GUSTY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THAT WILL BOOST HIGHS BACK INTO THE 80S. THIS
WARM UP WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS A STRONG JET DIVING THROUGH THE WEST
CARVES OUT A SHARP BUT PROGRESSIVE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTER OF
THE NATION. A FEW STORMS COULD DEVELOP ALONG A DIFFUSE DRYLINE IN
ADVANCE OF THIS STORM SYSTEM SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT CURRENT
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE BETTER/DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE JUST TO
THE EAST OF THE CWA BY PEAK HEATING. HOWEVER...THE STRONG UPPER
JET AND ASSOCIATED DPVA ALONG WITH OUR NEXT COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING FOR A FEW SHOWERS IN THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...SO ONLY
LIGHT RAIN AMOUNTS WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS NARROW
PRECIPITATION WINDOW. DRY WEATHER WILL FOLLOW THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER FROM THE
WEST.
AFTER THE WARM AND BREEZY SUNDAY...THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
KNOCK TEMPERATURES BACK BELOW AVERAGE...WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO
MAKE IT TO THE 70 DEGREE MARK MONDAY. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL
FOLLOW AS THE UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD THOUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK...THOUGH COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO OCCUR WITH A DRY
ATMOSPHERE RESIDE IN THE REGION.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 83 54 67 41 68 / 10 20 40 20 0
TULIA 84 54 69 44 68 / 10 20 40 30 10
PLAINVIEW 83 62 71 46 68 / 10 20 30 30 10
LEVELLAND 84 60 75 46 70 / 0 20 20 30 10
LUBBOCK 84 64 75 49 68 / 0 20 20 40 10
DENVER CITY 85 61 78 49 71 / 0 20 10 20 10
BROWNFIELD 86 61 77 49 70 / 0 20 20 30 10
CHILDRESS 87 65 74 50 68 / 10 20 50 40 10
SPUR 86 64 78 49 69 / 0 10 40 40 10
ASPERMONT 88 68 81 51 69 / 0 10 40 50 20
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
14/23
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
413 PM EDT THU OCT 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THROUGH THE
MID ATLANTIC WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE REGION THROUGH
WEEKEND AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK EASTWARD ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. THIS MAY PUSH SOUTH ON SUNDAY AS A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT...BUT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT THURSDAY...
WEAKENING CLUSTER OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS JUST ENTERING MOUNTAIN
EMPIRE REGION OF VIRGINIA...AND HRRR MODEL HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN
KEEPING SOME SHOWERS MOVING EAST INTO EARLY EVENING TO ABOUT THE
BLUE RIDGE...PERHAPS EVEN FARTHER. MOST OTHER MODELS REALLY HAD NO
HANDLE ON THIS IN THE FIRST PLACE. INSTABILITY EXTREMELY LIMITED
SO THUNDER CHANCES VERY MINIMAL BUT KEEPING A SMALL ZONE OF SLGT
CHC THUNDER IN ACROSS FAR SW FOR A FEW HOURS.
OVERNIGHT...CLOUDS THICKEN FROM THE WEST...AND IN GENERAL THE
COOLER MAV GUIDANCE LOOKS BETTER...ESPECIALLY EAST WHERE IT WILL
TAKE LONGER FOR CLOUDS TO FILL IN. WILL LIKELY SEE COOLER TEMPS IN
PARTS OF THE PIEDMONT COMPARED TO SW PART OF FCST AREA...WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR AND DECOUPLING...VS. WEST WHERE CLOUDS WILL RULE AND
WINDS MAY STAY UP ALONG RIDGES. AFTER THIS INITIAL WAVE OF SHOWERS
DISSIPATES LATER THIS EVENING...DO NOT SEE MUCH MENTIONABLE CHANCE
OF SHWRS UNTIL TOWARD MORNING IN FAR WEST GIVEN POSITION OF
BOUNDARY AND TIMING OF NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE COMING IN FAIRLY
LATE. INTRODUCE SOME LIKELY POPS FAR WEST BY DAWN.
FRIDAY THE SURFACE BOUNDARY DOES NOT MAKE MUCH PROGRESS EAST...BUT
A STRONG SHORT WAVE IN WESTERLY FLOW APPROACHES BY
AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD HELP TO GENERATE MORE SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE A THUNDERSTORM GIVEN LIMITED INSTABILITY...BEST CHANCES
FOR ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF WITH SBCAPE OF 500
OR SO. RAINFALL OVERALL WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT...WITH BETTER
CHANCES FOR A QUARTER INCH OR MORE FAR WESTERN SLOPES...EXCEPT
FOR ANY ISOLATED HEAVIER SHOWER WITH THUNDER. TEMPS FRIDAY SHOULD
BE MILD DESPITE LIMITED SUNSHINE...BUT BETTER CHANCES FOR A FEW
BREAKS WOULD BE IN THE PIEDMONT...AND ANY SUN COULD HELP TEMPS
CLIMB INTO LOWER 80S. BUMPED UP TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES MAINLY IN
THE PIEDMONT...AND IF WE END UP WITH LIMITED RAIN IN WEST MAY EVEN
HAVE TO BUMP UP A LITTLE MORE EVENTUALLY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT THURSDAY...
TIMING OF UPSTREAM SHORT WAVES IN THE ZONAL FLOW BRING BEST
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY NIGHT THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS IN
RESPONSE TO A SHORT WAVE AND THERE IS GOOD UPPER DIFFLUENCE WHICH
WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN IN THE NORTHWEST COUNTY
WARNING AREA.
MODELS WERE BECOMING SIMILAR IN WHERE AXIS OF HIGHEST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR. FRIDAY NIGHT THE AXIS WILL RUN FROM NEW JERSEY
TO SOUTHERN KANSAS THEN BY SATURDAY NIGHT FROM SOUTHERN VIRGINIA TO
NORTHERN MISSOURI.
ISENTROPIC LIFT THROUGH A DEEP LAYER AND OVERRUNNING WILL LIFT
MOISTURE OVER THE WEDGE ON SUNDAY. CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL
GREATLY LIMIT RISE IN TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT THURSDAY...
GFS AND CANADIAN WERE TRENDING TOWARD THE MORE AMPLIFIED ECMWF ON
THE 00Z RUNS...BUT NOW CUT OFF A 500 MB LOW OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY ON TUESDAY...24 HOURS BEFORE THE ECMWF CLOSES OFF A LOW.
THESE DIFFERENCES HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE TIMING OF THE
STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT CROSSING THROUGH THE REGION. BY MONDAY
MORNING WINDS ARE DIRECTING DEEP MOISTURE STRAIGHT OUT OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO. SUCH INTENSE DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM MEANS THAT THERE
IS A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
850MB TEMPERATURES IN THE +14 TO +17 RANGE SURGE NORTH INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. ENOUGH WARM
ADVECTION THAT TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE LITTLE DROP OVERNIGHT MONDAY
NIGHT. WITH ANY SUNSHINE AT ALL ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.
WRAP AROUND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS WITH THE UPPER LOW ON THE
COLD SIDE OF THE FRONT MAY LINGER IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THURSDAY.
DUE TO UPSLOPE WINDS IN THE WEST AS WELL AS COLD POOL ALOFT...WILL
KEEP A SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST FOR THE
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT THURSDAY...
VISIBLE SAT AND SURFACE OBS CONFIRM SCT CIRRUS ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE REST OF
THURSDAY. CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF A SYSTEM THAT
WILL AFFECT THE REGION ON FRIDAY. EXPECT FOG AT LWB THAT WILL DROP
THEM DOWN TO IFR FRIDAY MORNING AND MVFR AT BCB FOR A FEW
HOURS...OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITES SHOULD REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. RAIN SHOWERS ARE MENTIONED
AT BLF/LWB/BCB BEGINNING FRIDAY MORNING AFTER 12Z.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
COMBINATION OF A FRONT ACROSS THE REGION AND WEAK DISTURBANCES
RIDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL MAKE FOR PERIODS OF SUB- VFR DEVELOPING
BY FRIDAY EVENING. POOR FLYING CONDITIONS UNDER LOW CIGS LIKELY TO
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE FRONT REMAINS NEARBY
WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES SETTING
UP A WEDGE SCENARIO BY SUNDAY. INTERVALS OF PASSING SHOWERS MAY ALSO
MAKE FOR PERIODS OF MVFR TO IFR VSBYS IN RAIN/FOG OVER THE WEEKEND.
THE WEDGE APPEARS TO ERODE BY NEXT MONDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASING. MODELS FAVOR WETTER WEATHER NEXT WEEK WHICH WOULD KEEP
TERMINALS IN SUB VFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KK/SK
NEAR TERM...SK
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...CF/JH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS LITTLE ROCK AR
1256 AM CDT SAT OCT 11 2014
.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD TSRA ACROSS THE SOUTH...WITH THE NEXT ROUND MOVING
TOWARDS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS. MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA WITH SOME IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN AREAS OF RAINFALL.
THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN PRECIP LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL MOVE IN AFTER 12/00Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1003 PM CDT FRI OCT 10 2014/
UPDATE...
WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAIN CONTINUES OVER A
GOOD PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO SINK SOUTH. AN OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ALONG
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT HAVE HAD A HISTORY OF BECOMING
BRIEFLY SEVERE. A STRAY STRONG TO SEVERE STORM CAN NOT BE RULED
OUT THIS EVENING. WHATS LEFT OF THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
EXPIRED AT 10 PM.
PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN VERY LIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTH AND
PULLING THE WATCH WAS CONSIDERED BRIEFLY. HOWEVER NEW NAM MODEL
AND LATEST HRRR MODEL DOES GENERATE SOME DECENT QPF TONIGHT. WITH
ACTIVITY STILL ONGOING OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA...I DECIDED TO ERR ON
THE SIDE OF CAUTION AND MAINTAIN THE WATCH AND LET IT EXPIRE AT
12Z SATURDAY MORNING. THE HEAVIER RAIN AXIS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND WILL LET THE
OTHER FLASH FLOOD WATCH RIDE AS WELL.
CHANGES THIS EVENING ARE TO TWEAK THE CURRENT FORECAST/GRIDS BASED
ON CURRENT TRENDS AND A PEEK AT THE INCOMING MODELS. ALL UPDATES
OUT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CDT FRI OCT 10 2014/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
HEAVY RAIN OCCURRED TOWARD THE MISSOURI BORDER TODAY. MORE THAN
TWO INCHES OF PRECIPITATION FELL IN PORTIONS OF THE OZARKS. RAIN
WILL BUILD SOUTH WITH A SLOW MOVING FRONT.
AS THE FRONT HEADS INTO THE CENTRAL THIRD OF ARKANSAS THIS
EVENING...THERE COULD BE A FEW SEVERE STORMS. ISOLATED SEVERE
WEATHER WAS ONGOING IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA...WITH A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH POSTED THROUGH THIS EVENING IN THE OUACHITA
MOUNTAINS OF THE WEST.
RAIN WILL BE LIKELY IN CENTRAL/SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. AMOUNTS COULD BE HEAVY...WITH GENERAL HALF
INCH TO INCH AND A HALF TOTALS IN THE FORECAST. LOCAL TOTALS COULD
EXCEED TWO INCHES.
HAVE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH LINGERING IN THE FAR NORTH TONIGHT...WITH
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN CENTRAL/SOUTHERN SECTIONS THROUGH SATURDAY.
AT THIS POINT...WIDESPREAD HIGH WATER PROBLEMS ARE UNLIKELY...WITH
MOST OF THE WATER GOING INTO THE SOIL FOLLOWING A DRY SEPTEMBER.
RAIN WILL TAPER OFF SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
IN THE FORECAST. A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL DRAG A NEW COLD FRONT
INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
PICKING UP AGAIN.
THERE WILL BE TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WITH THE NEW SYSTEM...AND A QUICK
ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN. FLASH FLOODING MAY BECOME MORE OF AN
ISSUE. GIVEN THE DYNAMICS OF THE SYSTEM...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER...MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WHICH WILL LIMIT HEATING/INSTABILITY.
AREAS TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ARE FAVORED IF SEVERE STORMS
DEVELOP...OR WHERE THE MOST HEATING TAKES PLACE BEFORE THE FRONT
ARRIVES.
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
UPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER LAKE MICHIGAN TO BEGIN THE
PERIOD AND THE TRAILING TROUGH WILL BE MOVING EAST OF ARKANSAS.
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER ARKANSAS TUESDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
MOVE TO NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE STATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BE EXITING ARKANSAS TUESDAY
MORNING...AND THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN EASTERN
ARKANSAS THROUGH MID MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH DRY WEATHER AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ARKANSAS-CLARK-
CLEBURNE-CONWAY-FAULKNER-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-
JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LOGAN-LONOKE-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PIKE-POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR BAXTER-BOONE-
FULTON-IZARD-MARION-NEWTON-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...58
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
336 AM MDT SAT OCT 11 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 330 AM MDT SAT OCT 11 2014
FOR THIS MORNING THERE WILL BE AREAS OF PATCHY FOG OVER THE PLAINS.
THE HRRR INDICATES THERE COULD BE SOME DENSE FOG ALONG THE SOUTH
PLATTE RIVER VALLEY IN THE 10Z-15Z TIMEFRAME.
FOR THIS AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN
NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS SOME MID LVL
MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE AND WITH LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 7.5 AND 8.5
C/KM WILL SEE AT LEAST WDLY SCT SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AT
LOWER ELEVATIONS THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME WDLY SCT HIGH BASED
SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVENING SO WILL MENTION LOW
POPS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND NR THE WY BORDER. AS FOR HIGHS 850-
700 MB TEMPS RISE QUITE A BIT TODAY SO WILL KEEP READINGS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S AROUND DENVER WITH UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S OVER THE
REST OF THE PLAINS.
BY TONIGHT THE WK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE SE OF THE AREA AS STRONGER
FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF A STRONGER SYSTEM WHICH WILL
AFFECT THE RGN ON SUN. CROSS-SECTIONS SHOW LIMITED MOISTURE
OVERNIGHT SO WILL ONLY MENTION A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS IN THE MTNS.
WITH INCREASING FLOW ALOFT GUSTY WINDS WILL DVLP IN THE MTNS AND
HIGHER FOOTHILLS AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT SPEEDS SHOULD STAY BLO WARNING
CRITERIA.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM MDT SAT OCT 11 2014
MODELS HAVE AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY
WITH A NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY JET MAXIMUM TO MOVE ACROSS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. MONDAY NIGHT SHOWS DECREASING NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT FOR THE FORECAST AREA. THE QG VERTICAL VELOCITY FIELDS
SHOW A PERIOD OF DECENT UPWARD MOTION FOR US ON SUNDAY. PRETTY
STRONG DOWNWARD MOTION IS INDICATE LATER SUNDAY EVENING INTO
EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BECOMES NORTH-
NORTHWESTERLY FOR MUCH OF THE CWA ON SUNDAY INTO THE EVENING
...THEN MORE NORTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
THE COLD FRONT STILL LOOKS TO GET INTO THE PLAINS AROUND NOONTIME.
NORMAL DRAINAGE PATTERNS MAY RETURN FOR MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS
CERTAINLY SOME MOISTURE AROUND WITH SUNDAY`S UPPER TROUGH
CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING...THEN THINGS DRY OUT PRETTY WELL
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. DEW POINT PROGS HAVE READINGS MAINLY IN
THE 30S F ON SUNDAY...THEN THE 20S F ON MONDAY. THERE IS A TAD OF
CAPE PROGGED SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THEN NONE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
THE QPF FIELDS HAVE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
EVENING...NOTHING SIGNIFICANT HOWEVER. THE SNOW LEVEL LOOKS A BIT
HIGHER THAN IT DID FROM THE PREVIOUS RUNS. THERE COULD BE SOME
SNOW AS LOW AS 7000 MSL BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT
POPS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE AFTER SUNSET. FOR POPS...WILL NOT
CHANGE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING VERY MUCH. THE HIGH COUNTY WILL
SEE 50-80%S WITH THE TROUGH...NOTHING ABOVE 50%S FOR THE PLAINS
RIGHT NOW. SEE NO REASON FOR HIGHLIGHTS RIGHT NOW. FOR
TEMPERATURES...SUNDAY`S HIGHS ARE DOWN UP TO 10C FROM TODAY`S
HIGHS. MONDAY`S HIGHS WARM UP 2-4 C FROM SUNDAY`S. FOR THE LATER
DAYS...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THERE IS UPPER RIDGING OR FLAT
UPPER RIDGING OVER THE CWA ALL FOUR DAYS. MOISTURE IS POOR AND
TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 330 AM MDT SAT OCT 11 2014
WNDS WILL REMAIN DRAINAGE THRU THE MORNING HOURS WITH ANY FOG
STAYING NORTH OF THE AIRPORT. BY MIDDAY WINDS WINDS WILL BECOME
MORE SSE. AFTER 21Z THERE COULD BE A WIND SHIFT TO A MORE WLY
DIRECTION AS OUTFLOW FM SOME HIGH BASED SHOWERS MOVES ACROSS.
AFTER 01Z WINDS SHOULD BECOME MORE SLY AND THEN SSW BY 04Z.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...RPK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
340 AM EDT SAT OCT 11 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
07Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN OVERALL
UNAMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS EARLY THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...THIS MORE BENIGN UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL NOT LAST.
ALREADY SEEING SHORTWAVE ENERGY ARRIVING WITHIN THE NORTHERN STREAM
FLOW APPROACHING THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST THAT WILL EVOLVE OVER
THE NEXT 72 TO 84 HOURS INTO AN IMPRESSIVE DEEP AND SHARP TROUGH
OVER THE MID-SECTION OF THE COUNTRY...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD
INCLEMENT WEATHER. HOWEVER...LETS NOT GET AHEAD OF OURSELVES...BACK
TO THE PRESENT.
CURRENT PATTERN SHOWS SPLIT FLOW ARRIVING OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...WITH ONE BRANCH RIDING UP INTO THE CANADIAN
ROCKIES...AND THE OTHER DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN
REGION. THE DOWNSTREAM FLOW THEN BECOMES CONVERGENT AGAIN ACROSS THE
MID-SECTION OF THE COUNTRY AND RIDES NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND COASTS TO THE SOUTH OF AN EASTERN CANADIAN
TROUGH. THE ONLY REAL "WEATHER" IN THE COUNTY EXISTS WITH A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVE EJECTING WITH THE FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES
AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. THESE IMPULSES ARE RESULTING
IN CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS/STORMS FROM NORTHERN TEXAS/OK TO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY.
CLOSER TO HOME WE FIND A BROAD EXPANSE OF MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN
PLACE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FL PENINSULA. SYNOPTIC SUPPRESSION
WITHIN THIS RIDGE IS RESULTING IN A DRY COLUMN ABOVE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER AS SEEN IN WV IMAGERY AND WITH THE 11/00Z KTBW SOUNDING
PROFILE.
AT THE SURFACE...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST BACK SOUTHWEST TO THE I-10 CORRIDOR. OUR REGION
RESIDES IN A ZONE OF EASTERLY SYNOPTIC FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF THIS
RIDGE AXIS.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
THE QUIET WEATHER UNDERNEATH STACKED RIDGING CONTINUES FOR THE
DURATION OF THE WEEKEND. VERY LITTLE HAS CHANGED FROM A SYNOPTIC
VIEW FROM FRIDAY INTO TODAY. WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT A DRY COLUMN
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ABOVE SHALLOW BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ARRIVING
FROM THE ATLANTIC WITHIN THE EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. ON FRIDAY WE
WERE ONLY ABLE TO POP ONE OR TWO VERY ISOLATED AND BRIEF SHOWERS
OVER THE NATURE COAST...AND APPEARS AS THOUGH THE COLUMN WILL BE
EVEN A TOUCH MORE HOSTILE TOWARD DEEP CONVECTION TODAY. DEEP LAYER
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE RATHER LARGE ABOVE 850MB...AND THERE IS A
DEEP LAYER OF SUB 320K THETAE IN THE MID-LEVELS. ALL OF THIS WILL BE
VERY DIFFICULT FOR CONVECTIVE COLUMNS TO OVERCOME AND GROW TO THE
POINT OF PRECIPITATION. SIMILAR TO FRIDAY...WILL SAY A VERY ISOLATED
SHOWER CAN NOT BE RULE COMPLETELY OUT...BUT COVERAGE SUGGESTS
VIRTUALLY ALL OF US WILL BE RAIN FREE TODAY...AND ONCE AGAIN WILL
NOT MENTION SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST...KEEPING ALL RAIN CHANCES AT
10% OR LESS.
EFFICIENT MIXING UP TO BETWEEN 800-850MB SHOULD MIX OUT AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S...WHICH IS
JUST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE MIDDLE OF OCTOBER.
LOOKING AT THE WIND SPEEDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...950-925MB WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON ARE GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 10 KNOTS ABOVE THE SUN AND
NATURE COASTS. GENERALLY SPEAKING THIS IS NOT ENOUGH OPPOSING FLOW
TO HOLD BACK THE SEA-BREEZE FROM COMING ASHORE. DO NOT ANTICIPATE
MUCH INLAND PENETRATION...BUT WITH THE DEGREE OF TERRESTRIAL HEATING
ANTICIPATED TODAY...WOULD EXPECT WINDS TO FLIP AROUND TO A NW
DIRECTION AT THE BEACHES AFTER 1-2PM.
TONIGHT...MORE OF THE SAME WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE LOW TEMPERATURES. WILL BE EXPECTING AREAS OF
FOG TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH AN EMPHASIS COVERAGE TO THE
NORTH OF I-4...WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE WEAKEST CLOSE TO
THE RIDGE AXIS.
SUNDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE ANOTHER MOSTLY DRY AND WARM DAY TO CLOSE
OUT THE WEEKEND. LATE IN THE DAY ON SUNDAY WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE THE
VERY BEGINNING OF THE TRANSITION TOWARD THE RETURN OF MOISTURE OVER
THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE. WE WILL STILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF STACKED RIDGING...ALTHOUGH THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE
SHOWING SIGNS OF BEGINNING TO SHIFT TO THE EAST. THE CONTINUED
SUPPRESSIVE ENVIRONMENT WILL KEEP ALMOST ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA
DRY/RAIN FREE FOR ANOTHER DAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES UP AROUND 90.
TIME-HEIGHT ANALYSIS/X-SECTIONS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SHOW A SLIGHT
INFLUX OF MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE DURING THE
LATER PORTION OF THE DAY. MAINLY SEEING THE HOSTILE THETAE
ENVIRONMENT DOWN TOWARD LEE COUNTY LET UP A BIT. WILL IT BE ENOUGH
TO ALLOW A FEW STORM TO POP AFTER 20Z? BEST GUESS (ASSUMING THE
MODEL TIMING IS CORRECT) IS THAT THE MAJORITY OF ANY SHOWERS THAT DO
FORM WILL BE SOUTH OF FORT MYERS...BUT WILL BE CONSERVATIVE AND
ALLOW A 20% SLIGHT RAIN CHANCE UP INTO LEE COUNTY FOR THE LATE DAY
HOURS. ELSEWHERE...WILL KEEP IT DRY.
LOOKING WELL TO OUR WEST...STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING INTO THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY WILL BE STARTING TO DIG AN IMPRESSIVE
TROUGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BY THE END OF THE DAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL RESULT IN THE EVENTUAL ARRIVAL OF A COLD
FRONT INTO OUR REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. MORE ON THIS CHANGE
IN PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)...
THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH A CANADIAN TROUGH REACHING DOWN ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL U.S. PLAINS WHILE DEEP LAYER RIDGING RESIDES
ALONG THE EASTERN SEA BOARD AND DOWN INTO THE EAST GULF OF MEXICO.
FOR MON AND TUE THESE FEATURES SLIDE EAST...WITH THE TROUGH
EXTENDING DOWN TO THE GULF AND DEEPENING INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY (11/00Z ECMWF) OR THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
(11/00Z GFS). THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF THE UPPER LOW TRAILS A COLD
THAT STRETCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATE AND OVER THE EASTERN
GULF WITH THE ECMWF MORE ROBUST AND SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE GFS.
ON WED AND THU THE UPPER LOW TAKES A EAST-NORTHEAST TRACK WITH THE
ECMWF CONTINUING TO BE SLOWER AND STRONGER. THE TRAILING FRONT
SLIDES SOUTHWARD ACROSS FL...REACHING SOUTH FL BY THU. FINALLY BY
FRI THE LOW HAS DAMPENED OUT NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES OR THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY WHILE SOME DEEP RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF
REGION FROM THE WEST.
THE PRESENT FORECAST PHILOSOPHY IS TO BLEND THE GFS AND ECMWF ALONG
WITH THE CANADIAN MODEL. INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BRING IN
ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POP MON AFTERNOON WITH
THE HIGHEST ODDS IN THE SOUTH. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE
SOUTHERLY MON NIGHT AND TUE WITH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WHICH ALONG
WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED TO LIKELY SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. SOME OF
THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG ALTHOUGH THE BEST ENERGY AND MOISTURE
WILL BE TO THE NORTH. THE RAIN CHANCES BEGINS TO TAPER OFF TUE NIGHT
AND WED AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA AND SOME DRIER AIR WORKS IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST. FOR THU AND FRI ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
WILL BE WELL TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES COOL OFF BUT
STAY ON THE WARM SIDE OF NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE REGION THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD WITH MAINLY DRY AND RAIN FREE CONDITIONS. SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS
NIGHTS...AREAS OF FOG WILL EXPAND THROUGH THE PRE DAWN
HOURS...MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF I-4...HOWEVER A PERIOD OF MVFR VIS IS
EXPECTED AT KLAL AND PERHAPS AS FAR SOUTH AS KPGD. ANY FOG WILL
QUICKLY BURN OFF WITHIN AN HOUR OR 2 OF SUNRISE WITH PREVAILING VFR
CONDITIONS THEREAFTER. AREAS OF MVFR VIS WILL AGAIN DEVELOP FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF SATURDAY NIGHT WITH KLAL AND KPGD SEEING THE BEST
CHANCES FOR ANY VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST WATERS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE PREVAILING FLOW WILL BE FROM THE
EAST...ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL LIKELY VEER AROUND TO THE NW NEAR THE
COAST EACH AFTERNOON...AND THEN QUICKLY SWITCH BACK FROM THE EAST
AFTER SUNSET. A NOCTURNAL WIND SURGE WILL APPROACH 15 KNOTS FOR A
TIME TONIGHT...MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF TARPON SPRINGS. THE GRADIENT
WILL THEN TIGHTEN EARLY NEXT WEEK BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST
AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST...WITH AN INCREASE IN
WINDS AND SEAS FROM THE SOUTHEAST. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
DURING TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A SHIFT IN WINDS TO THE NORTH
IN ITS WAKE FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND KEEPING OUR WEATHER GENERALLY WARM AND RAIN FREE. DESPITE
THE DRIER CONDITIONS...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS. NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
ARE ANTICIPATED.
AREAS OF GROUND FOG ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND TO THE NORTH
OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR. ALTHOUGH AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED...WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG IS NOT ANTICIPATED. FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A CONCERN
SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 90 72 91 72 / 0 0 10 10
FMY 91 71 90 73 / 0 0 20 10
GIF 90 70 90 68 / 10 0 10 0
SRQ 89 71 89 72 / 0 10 10 10
BKV 91 63 90 67 / 0 0 0 0
SPG 89 75 90 75 / 0 0 10 10
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WX...MROCZKA
LONG TERM...RUDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
507 AM EDT SAT OCT 11 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE FELT ACROSS THE REGION AGAIN TODAY.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIP SOUTH ACROSS THE MIDLANDS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE
NORTH SUNDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. COOL
TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NEARLY ZONAL WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF
THE COUNTRY WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY TONIGHT AS A POSITIVELY TILTED
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED
FROM CENTRAL TEXAS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO
SOUTHERN VIRGINIA.
HIGH RESOLUTION HRRR MODEL INDICATED SCATTERED CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CSRA TO THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS AROUND SUNRISE.
MESO ANALYSIS SHOWED LIFTED INDICES AROUND MINUS 3C ACROSS THE
CSRA... AND THE RAP AND NAM MODELS INDICATED THIS AREA OF
INSTABILITY TO SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO THE MIDLANDS. THEREFORE WE
INCLUDED A CHANCE FOR CONVECTION FOR THIS MORNING.
SHOULD SEE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES DURING MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON.
MODERATE INSTABILITY AND WEAK SHEAR MAY RESULT IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AFTERNOON. KEPT TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90...WHICH IS IN LINE WITH GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE MIDLANDS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT THEN STALL NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF
THE CSRA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL RIDGE INTO
THE CAROLINAS RESULTING IN A SHALLOW WEDGE/COLD AIR DAMMING
OVERNIGHT. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD RESULT IN SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN
AND DRIZZLE TONIGHT. CLOUDS AND LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL HOLD
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO MID 60S SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CHALLENGING FORECAST WITH SHALLOW WEDGE SUNDAY ERODING MONDAY AS
LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS TO SOUTHEAST..AS THE SURFACE RIDGE TO THE
NORTH MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL BE
MUCH COOLER. HAVE INDICATED A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE WITH
CONTINUED WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. COULD SEE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE CSRA CLOSERS TO THE FRONT. FOR SUNDAY...RANGED HIGH
TEMPERATURES FROM THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO LOWER 80S SOUTH.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
IT APPEARS THE WEDGE WILL ERODE MONDAY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS AT
H850MB INCREASES TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS. KEPT CHANCE OF CONVECTION FOR
MONDAY AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES MODERATELY UNSTABLE. WENT
SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
MID 80S. SHOULD BE MILD MONDAY NIGHT AS THE STRONG COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WIND AND CLOUDS WILL HOLD OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS NEAR THE ATLANTIC COAST AND A DEEP TROUGH
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS CAUSING AN AMPLIFIED UPPER
PATTERN FOR THE LONG TERM. A STRONG COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE
REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS MIDWEST UPPER TROUGH
MOVES EAST. CONFIDENCE HIGH ENOUGH FOR LIKELY POPS TUESDAY BASED
ON GFS ENSEMBLES. MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUGGEST SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL. DRY REST OF PERIOD BEHIND FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BEHIND
FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LIGHT WINDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARE PROMOTING PATCHY STRATUS
AND FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING. RESTRICTIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
DAYBREAK WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR EXPECTED AROUND 14/15Z. A COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT BRINGING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY RESTRICTIONS AT THIS TIME DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND COVERAGE. RESTRICTIONS WILL RETURN
OVERNIGHT AS A WEDGE DEVELOPS AND LOW CLOUDS RETURN TO THE AREA.
WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING AND
VEER TO WESTERLY BY 21Z AND VEER TO NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY TOWARD THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES IN BEHIND THE FRONT
AND THE WEDGE BEGINS TO SET UP.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED AS A WEDGE
DEVELOPS EARLY SUNDAY AND PERSISTS INTO MONDAY. RESTRICTIONS ALSO
EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION BRINGING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
427 AM EDT SAT OCT 11 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE FELT ACROSS THE REGION AGAIN TODAY.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIP SOUTH ACROSS THE MIDLANDS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE
NORTH SUNDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. COOL
TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NEARLY ZONAL WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF
THE COUNTRY WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY TONIGHT AS A POSITIVELY TILTED
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED
FROM CENTRAL TEXAS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO
SOUTHERN VIRGINIA.
HIGH RESOLUTION HRRR MODEL INDICATED SCATTERED CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CSRA TO THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS AROUND SUNRISE.
MESO ANALYSIS SHOWED LIFTED INDICES AROUND MINUS 3C ACROSS THE
CSRA... AND THE RAP AND NAM MODELS INDICATED THIS AREA OF
INSTABILITY TO SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO THE MIDLANDS. THEREFORE WE
INCLUDED A CHANCE FOR CONVECTION FOR THIS MORNING.
SHOULD SEE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES DURING MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON.
MODERATE INSTABILITY AND WEAK SHEAR MAY RESULT IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AFTERNOON. KEPT TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90...WHICH IS IN LINE WITH GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE MIDLANDS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT THEN STALL NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF
THE CSRA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL RIDGE INTO
THE CAROLINAS RESULTING IN A SHALLOW WEDGE/COLD AIR DAMMING
OVERNIGHT. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD RESULT IN SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN
AND DRIZZLE TONIGHT. CLOUDS AND LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL HOLD
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO MID 60S SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CHALLENGING FORECAST WITH SHALLOW WEDGE SUNDAY ERODING MONDAY AS
LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS TO SOUTHEAST..AS THE SURFACE RIDGE TO THE
NORTH MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL BE
MUCH COOLER. HAVE INDICATED A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE WITH
CONTINUED WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. COULD SEE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE CSRA CLOSERS TO THE FRONT. FOR SUNDAY...RANGED HIGH
TEMPERATURES FROM THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO LOWER 80S SOUTH.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
IT APPEARS THE WEDGE WILL ERODE MONDAY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS AT
H850MB INCREASES TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS. KEPT CHANCE OF CONVECTION FOR
MONDAY AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES MODERATELY UNSTABLE. WENT
SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
MID 80S. SHOULD BE MILD MONDAY NIGHT AS THE STRONG COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WIND AND CLOUDS WILL HOLD OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS NEAR THE ATLANTIC COAST AND A DEEP TROUGH
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS CAUSING AN AMPLIFIED UPPER
PATTERN FOR THE LONG TERM. A STRONG COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE
REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS MIDWEST UPPER TROUGH
MOVES EAST. CONFIDENCE HIGH ENOUGH FOR LIKELY POPS TUESDAY BASED
ON GFS ENSEMBLES. MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUGGEST SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL. DRY REST OF PERIOD BEHIND FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BEHIND
FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR A MAJORITY OF THE TAF
PERIOD. MODELS SUGGEST SOME STRATUS OR PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING
TOWARD DAYBREAK...WILL DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET
THAT NAM BUFKIT IS SHOWING OVERNIGHT. HAVE CONTINUED TO
INDICATE MVFR AT FOG PRONE AGS/OGB AND CONDITIONS RETURNING TO VFR
BY 14Z. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALTHOUGH THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE TERMINALS SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY
RESTRICTIONS AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING AND VEER TO WESTERLY BY 21Z AND VEER TO
NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND A WEDGE BEGINS TO SET UP.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED AS A WEDGE
DEVELOPS EARLY SUNDAY AND PERSISTS INTO MONDAY. RESTRICTIONS ALSO
EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION BRINGING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
214 AM EDT SAT OCT 11 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ACROSS AREA TODAY AS A COLD
FRONT DEVELOPS NORTH OF THE REGION. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIP
SOUTH ACROSS THE MIDLANDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. COOL HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS. COOL TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW FOR THE END
OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
NEARLY ZONAL WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF
THE COUNTRY WITH A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO NOSING INTO
THE GULF COAST STATES. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL
TEXAS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO EASTERN WEST
VIRGINIA.
AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINKS SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT THE POSSIBILITY
OF NOCTURNAL PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME FOCUSED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AND WESTERN MIDLANDS...THOUGH MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH PWAT VALUES
ONLY AROUND 1.3 INCHES. HIGH RESOLUTION HRRR DOES NOT INDICATE ANY
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION OVERNIGHT BUT WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD ON TO
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS WITH
FAVORABLE CORFIDI VECTORS AND UPSTREAM CONVECTION EXPECTED TO PUSH
EASTWARD.
SHOULD SEE SOME INCREASE IN HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S WITH SOME
POSSIBLE STRATUS OR PATCHY FOG TOWARD MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE MIDLANDS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT AND STALL NEAR OR JUST SOUTH
OF THE CSRA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL RIDGE
INTO THE CAROLINAS RESULTING IN A SHALLOW WEDGE/COLD AIR DAMMING
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
MOST OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR THE FRONT ON SATURDAY...SO
KEPT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MIDLANDS. GIVEN
WEST-SOUTHWEST 850MB FLOW...TEMPERATURES WILL BE STILL BE WARM ON
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S NORTH TO NEAR 90
SOUTH. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
WITH SHALLOW WEDGE/COLD AIR DAMMING ON SUNDAY SHOULD SEE COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN. COULD SEE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CSRA CLOSERS TO THE FRONT. RANGED HIGH
TEMPERATURES FROM THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO MID 80S SOUTH. OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RIDGE BUILDS NEAR THE ATLANTIC COAST AND A DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS CAUSING AN AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN. THE
GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO CONVERGE.
CHALLENGING FORECAST WITH SHALLOW WEDGE FROM SUNDAY ERODING
MONDAY AS LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS TO SOUTHEAST AS SURFACE RIDGE TO
THE NORTH MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. UPPER RIDGE BUILDING
OFF CAROLINA COAST IN RESPONSE TO DEEP TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
PLAINS. A STRONG COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS MIDWEST UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST. CONFIDENCE
HIGH ENOUGH FOR LIKELY POPS TUESDAY BASED ON GFS ENSEMBLES.
MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT SHOULD BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
SUGGEST SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. DRY REST OF PERIOD BEHIND
FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BEHIND FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR A MAJORITY OF THE TAF
PERIOD. MODELS SUGGEST SOME STRATUS OR PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING
TOWARD DAYBREAK...WILL DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET
THAT NAM BUFKIT IS SHOWING OVERNIGHT. HAVE CONTINUED TO
INDICATE MVFR AT FOG PRONE AGS/OGB AND CONDITIONS RETURNING TO VFR
BY 14Z. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALTHOUGH THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE TERMINALS SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY
RESTRICTIONS AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING AND VEER TO WESTERLY BY 21Z AND VEER TO
NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND A WEDGE BEGINS TO SET UP.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED AS A WEDGE
DEVELOPS EARLY SUNDAY AND PERSISTS INTO MONDAY. RESTRICTIONS ALSO
EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION BRINGING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
1210 AM EDT SAT OCT 11 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ACROSS AREA TODAY AS A COLD
FRONT DEVELOPS NORTH OF THE REGION. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIP
SOUTH ACROSS THE MIDLANDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. COOL HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS. COOL TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW FOR THE END
OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
NEARLY ZONAL WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF
THE COUNTRY WITH A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO NOSING INTO
THE GULF COAST STATES. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL
TEXAS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO EASTERN WEST
VIRGINIA.
AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINKS SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT THE POSSIBILITY
OF NOCTURNAL PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME FOCUSED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AND WESTERN MIDLANDS...THOUGH MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH PWAT VALUES
ONLY AROUND 1.3 INCHES. HIGH RESOLUTION HRRR DOES NOT INDICATE ANY
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION OVERNIGHT BUT WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD ON TO
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS WITH
FAVORABLE CORFIDI VECTORS AND UPSTREAM CONVECTION EXPECTED TO PUSH
EASTWARD.
SHOULD SEE SOME INCREASE IN HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S WITH SOME
POSSIBLE STRATUS OR PATCHY FOG TOWARD MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE MIDLANDS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT AND STALL NEAR OR JUST SOUTH
OF THE CSRA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL RIDGE
INTO THE CAROLINAS RESULTING IN A SHALLOW WEDGE/COLD AIR DAMMING
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
MOST OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR THE FRONT ON SATURDAY...SO
KEPT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MIDLANDS. GIVEN
WEST-SOUTHWEST 850MB FLOW...TEMPERATURES WILL BE STILL BE WARM ON
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S NORTH TO NEAR 90
SOUTH. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
WITH SHALLOW WEDGE/COLD AIR DAMMING ON SUNDAY SHOULD SEE COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN. COULD SEE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CSRA CLOSERS TO THE FRONT. RANGED HIGH
TEMPERATURES FROM THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO MID 80S SOUTH. OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGE BUILDS NEAR THE ATLANTIC COAST AND A DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS CAUSING AN AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN. THE
GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO CONVERGE.
CHALLENGING FORECAST WITH SHALLOW WEDGE FROM SUNDAY ERODING
MONDAY AS LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS TO SOUTHEAST AS SURFACE RIDGE TO
THE NORTH MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. UPPER RIDGE BUILDING
OFF CAROLINA COAST IN RESPONSE TO DEEP TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
PLAINS. A STRONG COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS MIDWEST UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST. CONFIDENCE
HIGH ENOUGH FOR LIKELY POPS TUESDAY BASED ON GFS ENSEMBLES.
MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT SHOULD BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
SUGGEST SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. DRY REST OF PERIOD BEHIND
FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BEHIND FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH
SCATTERED CLOUDS. MODELS SUGGEST SOME STRATUS OR PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WILL DEPEND ON STRENGTH
OF LOW-LEVEL JET THAT NAM BUFKIT IS INDICATING WILL DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT. WILL GO WITH MVFR IN TERMINALS TOWARD MORNING...BUT
THAT MAY BE A LITTLE PESSIMISTIC. WINDS LIGHT SOUTHWEST.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS IN VISIBILITY DUE TO
MORNING FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
115 AM EDT SAT OCT 11 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 115 AM EDT SAT OCT 11 2014
BACK EDGE OF RAIN SHOWERS IS PUSHING ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND
SHOULD WORK INTO AND ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY OVER THE NEXT 4 TO 6
HOURS. THIS WILL GRADUALLY BRING AN END TO THE RAIN FROM WEST TO EAST
BY DAYBREAK. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER JUST PAST DAYBREAK IN THE
EAST...BUT FOR THE MOST PART...THINGS SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN.
ADJUSTED POPS TO REFLECT THESE TRENDS. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS ARE ON TRACK...SO NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1101 PM EDT FRI OCT 10 2014
RAIN CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. BEST COVERAGE REMAINS
ACROSS THE NORTH...BUT A NARROW LINE OF SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED AND
WILL PUSH ACROSS AREAS NEAR THE TENNESSEE BORDER OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. UPDATED FORECAST TO REFINE THE POPS OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. FOG HAS LIFTED A BIT ACROSS THE AREA...BUT STILL
SEEING A FEW SPOTS ON THE RIDGES REPORTING SOME DENSE FOG...SO WILL
MAINTAIN THE FOG IN THE FORECAST. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS
TO REFLECT A BETTER TREND THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 642 PM EDT FRI OCT 10 2014
UPDATED TO REMOVE THUNDER AS BETTER INSTABILITY HAS SHIFTED SOUTH OF
OUR AREA. THUNDER CHANCES LOOK MINIMAL THROUGH TOMORROW GIVEN
INSTABILITY IS BOTTLED UP SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THUS...PLAN
TO REMOVE ANY THUNDER CHANCES TOMORROW AS WELL. MEANWHILE...FOG HAS
DEVELOPED QUICKLY ON THE RIDGES THIS EVENING AND HAS BECOME LOCALLY
DENSE. PLAN TO ADD FOG INTO THE FORECAST TONIGHT AND INCLUDE IT IN
THE HWO AS IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE DENSE IN PLACES THROUGH DAYBREAK.
SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW DENSE THE FOG WILL END UP IN THE
VALLEYS...BUT IF THE FOG CONTINUES TO EXPAND...MAY NEED TO LOOK AT
THE NEED FOR A DENSE FOG ADVISORY LATER ON. IN FACT... THE RAIN OUT
THERE NOW SHOULD BE MOVING ON THROUGH WITH A LULL EXPECTED AFTER
MIDNIGHT. AS THE BOUNDARY FINALLY SHIFTS SOUTHWARD. THIS WOULD PUT
ALL OF THE AREA ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DENSE FOG. UPDATED FORECAST TO REFINE THE POPS THROUGH THE
REST OF THE NIGHT...FOCUSING THE BETTER POPS IN THE NORTH...WITH
LESSER POPS IN THE SOUTH AS THE SOUTHERN AREAS GET DRY SLOTTED.
FORECAST UPDATE HAS BEEN SENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT FRI OCT 10 2014
19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT LYING JUST NORTH OF
THE TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY BORDER. THIS FRONT IS SERVING AS FOCUSING
MECHANISM FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF
THE STATE THUS FAR THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD CHANGE AS ANOTHER MID
LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND INDUCES A SFC WAVE TO MOVE
ALONG THE FRONT BRINGING RENEWED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE CWA THIS
EVENING AND INTO THE NIGHT. IN THE MEANTIME...JUST A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS ARE FOUND THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY WITH SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY.
THERE HAS BEEN SOME THINNING AND CLEAR PATCHES NOTED IN THE VISIBLE
SATELLITE LOOP OVER EAST KENTUCKY AND THIS SHOULD HELP BUILD SOME
EXTRA INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.
THE THICKEST CLOUDS AND BEING NORTH OF THE FRONT HAS KEPT READINGS
LOCKED IN THE UPPER 50S IN THE FAR NORTH WHILE SOME 70 DEGREE REPORTS
HAVE BEEN NOTED IN THE FAR SOUTH. DEWPOINTS...MEANWHILE...ARE IN THE
LOW AND MID 60S SOUTH AND A BIT LOWER NORTH WHILE LIGHT WINDS ARE
FROM THE NORTHEAST NORTH OF JKL AND FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE SOUTH.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS THEY
ALL DEPICT FAST AND NEAR ZONAL FLOW MOVING OVER KENTUCKY INTO WHICH
A SHEARING MID LEVEL WAVE WILL PERIODICALLY RELEASE ITS ENERGY. A
HEALTHY BATCH IS ON ITS WAY HERE FOR THIS EVENING AND IS RESPONSIBLE
FOR THE CONVECTION CURRENTLY BUILDING OVER TENNESSEE THAT IS POISED
TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO OUR AREA BY EVENING. THE REMNANTS OF THE PLAINS
TROUGH FALLS APART OVER THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT. AS THIS ALL
HAPPENS...PLENTY OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL BE FOUND OVER THE
REGION OWING TO A STRONG 300 MB JET PASSING BY TO THE NORTHEAST. HAVE
GONE WITH A BLEND OF THE MODELS WITH A LEAN TOWARD THE ECMWF
POSITIONS FOR THE FRONT...BUT FAVORED THE NAM12 QPF TOTALS...JUST
TRANSLATED A BIT SOUTH. ALSO INCORPORATED THE LATEST HRRR IN THE NEAR
TERM GRIDS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A WET NIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO KICK UP DURING THE EVENING AND FADE OUT
LATE IN THE NIGHT. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE NEXT
WAVE MOVES OUT BY DAWN SATURDAY AS THE NEXT ONE STARTS TO HEAD THIS
WAY FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BUT TAKING A BIT FURTHER SOUTH
TRACK. IT IS THESE TRACK SHIFTS THAT SHOULD SPARE ANY PARTICULAR PART
OF THE CWA A HIGHER FLOOD RISK DESPITE THE ROUNDS OF RAIN. HOWEVER...
SHOULD THE HEAVIER CELLS TRAIN OVER A SPOT LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THE RAIN WILL ACCUMULATE ENOUGH THAT THE DITCHES AND CREEKS
WILL CERTAINLY BE FULL AT TIMES AND THE LARGER RIVERS WILL RESPOND
AND START TO FILL UP AS WELL. FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT THE
TRACK LOOKS TO FAVOR THE SOUTH AND LIKELY BE A LITTLE LESS ROBUST...
THOUGH EACH WAVE THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY...COULD HAVE PLACES THAT GET
HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ADDRESSED IN AN
ESFJKL. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL WITH A SMALL DIURNAL RANGE.
ONCE AGAIN USED THE CONSSHORT AS A STARTING POINT AGAIN FOR THE
T/TD/WIND GRIDS THROUGH THE FIRST 18-24 HOURS BEFORE GOING WITH THE
SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. DID NOT SEE MANY TARGETS OF OPPORTUNITY FOR
TEMPERATURE IMPROVEMENTS IN THIS ENVIRONMENT SO ONLY MINOR TWEAKS
WERE MADE TO THE MAX AND MIN T GRIDS. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP MOST
SIMILAR TO THE WETTER MAV NUMBERS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT FRI OCT 10 2014
NOT MUCH AGREEMENT IN TIMING OF MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURES THROUGH THE
EXTENDED...BUT BETTER AGREEMENT WITH ACTUAL PATTERN. HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE GREAT PLAINS
EARLY IN THE PERIOD BEFORE FORMING A CUT OFF LOW SOMEWHERE OVER THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...OR MIDWEST BY TUESDAY. FROM THERE FORWARD
THE 12Z GFS IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE TAKING THIS LARGE SYSTEM INTO
THE NORTHEAST BY LATE WEDNESDAY. THE 12Z CANADIAN APPEARS TO BE
COMPROMISE OF THE GFS AND ECMWF. THE 0Z ECMWF...SLOWEST OF ALL THE
OPERATIONAL MODELS ROTATES THE LOW THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AT
A TURTLES PACE BEFORE LIFTING THE SYSTEM NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY REGION LATE IN THE WEEK. NATIONAL GUIDANCE QUESTIONS HOW THE
ECMWF CAN KEEP THE CUT OFF LOW OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY FOR SO
LONG WITHOUT BETTER SUPPORT FROM THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
THAT WOULD PRODUCE THE SPLIT FLOW NECESSARY FOR ITS SOLUTION...AND
IN GENERAL THEY ARE NOT SEEING THOSE TYPES OF SIGNALS. THEREFORE
WILL TEND TO STICK WITH A BLENDED SOLUTION THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
AT THE SURFACE A QUASI STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN
THE REGION LIFTING NORTH AND SOUTH WITH EACH PASSING SFC WAVE AND/OR
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THIS BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH OF OUR AREA LATE
SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM STRENGTHENS TO OUR
WEST. THERE IS MUCH LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST THEREAFTER BUT
CONSENSUS APPROACH SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE...COLD AIR MASS INSTABILITY TYPE SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE
MID WEEK TIME FRAME.
AS FAR AS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...STRONG LLJ MAY DEVELOP
OVER OUR AREA...AHEAD OF THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY AS H850 WIND SPEEDS INCREASE TO BETWEEN 50 AND 70 KTS. THESE
STRONGER WINDS COULD MIX DOWN CREATING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG
STORMS AS AN OCCLUDED FRONT MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA EITHER
LATE MONDAY OR TUESDAY. THIS THREAT WILL INCREASE SHOULD WE SEE
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SUNLIGHT MONDAY. HOWEVER...THERE IS TOO MUCH
DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS TO HAVE ANY CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND
OTHER DETAILS AT THIS POINT. STRONGER...GUSTY WINDS SHOULD BE
EXPECTED BEHIND THE OCCLUDED FRONT AS WELL...WHICH MAY BE REALIZED
AS EARLY AS TUESDAY. ANOTHER HIGHLIGHT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. WHILE FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE ABOVE NORMAL
PWATS...TIMING OF DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WOULD PROVIDE
SOME DECENT BREAKS...RECOVERY TIME BETWEEN SUCCESSIVE BOUTS OF RAIN.
THOUGHTS ARE THAT TRAINING OF CELLS MAY CREATE A MUCH GREATER THREAT
OF HEAVY RAIN...ESPECIALLY OVER SATURATED GROUND. IN ADDITION...
TOTAL RAINFALL WILL BE SPREAD OUT OVER AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME.
THEREFORE FLASH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS GREAT A THREAT AS
IT MIGHT NORMALLY BE. HOWEVER SOME MINOR FLOODING OF LARGER CREEKS
AND STREAMS...AND EVENTUALLY AREA RIVERS...WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
LONG HAUL. ATTM THE CURRENT HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK HANDLES OUR CURRENT
SITUATION WELL.
IN GENERAL SENSIBLE WEATHER LOOKS QUITE UNSTABLE THROUGH TUESDAY...
BUT GRADUALLY IMPROVES AND DRIES OUT THEREAFTER WITH ONLY SOME
INSTABILITY SHOWERS TO DEAL WITH WED-THU. STUCK TO A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS. WITH SUCH A STRONG SOUTHERLY JET AND FETCH OF
AIR INTO THE REGION MONDAY NUDGED TEMPS UP CLOSER TO THE WARMER GFS
GUIDANCE VERSUS THE BLEND. LOOKING FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...THEN NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD. SHOULD THE ECMWF EVENTUALLY TURN OUT TO BE THE BEST
SOLUTION...TUESDAY/S HIGH AND POSSIBLY TUESDAY NIGHTS LOW TEMPS
WOULD COME IN WARMER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 115 AM EDT SAT OCT 11 2014
A LOW PRESSURE DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA
PRODUCING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. AS
THIS WAVE DEPARTS OVERNIGHT...CEILINGS WILL FALL TO NEAR OR BELOW
AIRPORT MINIMUMS AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING.
SOME SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY...BUT
CEILINGS WILL NOT GET MUCH ABOVE AIRPORT MINIMUMS. CEILINGS MAY FALL
BACK BELOW AIRPORT MINIMUMS TONIGHT AS THE AREA REMAINS NORTH OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...RAY
AVIATION...KAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
135 AM EDT SAT OCT 11 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH WILL THEN DROP
INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...BEFORE PUSHING TO THE SOUTH ON
SUNDAY AS A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTH. THE
FRONT WILL RETREAT BACK TO THE NORTH ON MONDAY...WITH A STRONG
COLD FRONT THEN EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH A RISK FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD OVER THE REGION INTO LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1:30 AM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS FOLLOW:
THE 00Z CHS SOUNDING CAME IN 2-3 DEGREES F WARMER THAN 18Z MODELS
PREDICTED THROUGH THE LOWEST 75 MB OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS...PLUS
02Z (10 PM) TEMPERATURES RUNNING A LITTLE ABOVE MY EARLIER
FORECAST HAS LED ME TO RAISE FORECAST LOWS BY ANOTHER DEGREE IN
MOST SPOTS. CONVECTION ACROSS DARLINGTON AND MARLBORO COUNTIES HAS
DISSIPATED. RECENT HRRR MODELS DO NOT INDICATE MUCH POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. ACTIVITY IN AND NEAR RALEIGH
SHOULD STAY TO OUR NORTH. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 730 PM
FOLLOWS...
ALTHOUGH THERE IS NOT A DEFINABLE FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS THERE IS A DISCONTINUITY IN ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
CONTENT. RECENT MESOANALYSIS SHOWS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR
1.4 INCHES WEST OF INTERSTATE 95 WITH ONLY 1.0 INCH ON THE COAST.
VERTICALLY...THIS INCREASED MOISTURE IS MOST APPARENT AT THE 900
AND 850 MB LEVEL WHICH IS VERY NEAR THE TOP OF TODAY`S DIURNALLY
MIXED LAYER. SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY NEAR 1000 J/G CONTINUES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA AS FAR EAST AS I-95 WHERE A
COUPLE CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED. THIS
ACTIVITY IS ROLLING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS HARTSVILLE AND
DARLINGTON. OUR CONVECTION DOES NOT HAVE A BRIGHT FUTURE AHEAD OF
IT: A STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER AND LESS MOISTURE DOWNSTREAM
SHOULD BOTH ACT TO END THIS CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
SYNOPTICALLY...SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF IS
PRODUCING A WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OVER
THE CAROLINAS. AT LEAST TWO WEAK POSITIVELY-TILED SHORTWAVES WILL
MOVE WITHIN A RIBBON OF DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS TENNESSEE...NORTHERN
NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA OVERNIGHT. AT THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS
TENNESSEE INTO VIRGINIA. THIS SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE SYNOPTIC
ACTION WELL OFF TO OUR NORTH WITH ONLY CIRRUS AND OCCASIONAL MID
CLOUDS DOWN THIS WAY.
A MODERATE LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD DEVELOP SHORTLY WITH WIND SPEEDS
AT 1000 FEET AGL INCREASING TO 20 KT. (THE NAM INCREASES THESE
WIND SPEEDS TO 30 KNOTS OVERNIGHT...QUITE A BIT STRONGER THAN THE
GFS) THIS SHOULD HELP DISTURB THE BOUNDARY LAYER JUST ENOUGH TO
PREVENT A DEEP SUBSIDENCE INVERSION FROM DEVELOPING...AND FORECAST
LOWS ARE NEAR THE TOP END OF THE MOS GUIDANCE ENVELOPE: MID 60S
MOST AREAS WITH UPPER 60S AT THE BEACHES. INTERESTINGLY SINCE THIS
LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE WEAKER THE FARTHER SOUTH YOU ARE...THE
STRONGEST RADIATIONAL INVERSION SHOULD DEVELOP SOUTH OF FLORENCE
AND MYRTLE BEACH AND I HAVE LOWER 60S FORECAST TO OCCUR IN THE
GEORGETOWN/ CONWAY VICINITY AS A RESULT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM FRIDAY...SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY AS A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT DROPS TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. THE FRONT WILL DROP
INTO SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA SATURDAY EVENING...THEN SLOWLY
PROGRESS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS EAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ANY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY SHOULD BE ISOLATED...AND MAINLY LIMITED
TO SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA IN THE AFTERNOON IN CLOSER PROXIMITY
TO THE NEARING FRONT. THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE INTO
THE CHANCE CATEGORY SATURDAY EVENING ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AS
THE FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE THROUGH. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AHEAD OF THE BACKDOOR FRONT
SHOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE AREA
INLAND FROM THE COAST. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE RATHER MILD
IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S GIVEN INCREASING CLOUD COVER.
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THE FRONT WILL PROGRESS SOUTH OF THE
AREA ON SUNDAY AS AN INLAND WEDGE BUILDS DOWN THE LEE OF THE
APPALACHIANS WITH THE PARENT HIGH CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND.
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BECOME TRAPPED BENEATH THE STRONG
INVERSION... RESULTING IN CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS. FORCING FOR
ASCENT IS RATHER WEAK...BUT THE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF RAIN AND/OR PATCHY DRIZZLE ACROSS THE AREA...WITH NOT MUCH IN
THE WAY OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER WITH THE WEDGE IN PLACE AND HIGHS ARE ONLY
FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOWER 70S ACROSS SOUTHEAST NC AND LOWER TO
MID 70S ACROSS MOST OF NORTHEAST SC.
MONDAY...THE PARENT HIGH WILL SHIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST...THUS ALLOWING A WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA
AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. HOWEVER...FEEL
AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE THE MODELS ARE ERODING THE WEDGE A BIT
TOO QUICKLY. WILL TREND WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR
80 AND MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST...WITH
PERHAPS A FEW AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS IF THE WEDGE CAN GET
DISPLACED.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM FRIDAY...A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/CLOSED LOW TO THE
WEST WILL ALLOW A POTENT COLD FRONT TO SWING THROUGH THE AREA BY
MID-WEEK. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS CONSIDERABLE TIMING
DIFFERENCES...WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURRING ANYWHERE FROM LATE
TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY MORNING. GIVEN HOW THE UPPER LOW WRAPS UP IT
SHOULD SLOW THE SYSTEM DOWN AND THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS APPEAR MORE
LIKELY...BUT WILL TAKE SOMEWHAT OF A COMPROMISE AND INDICATE THE
FRONT MOVING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WHAT MODELS DO AGREE WITH IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...GIVEN A
POWERFUL LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND OVERALL STRONG
DYNAMICS. THE BIGGEST FACTOR WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE
INSTABILITY...WHICH WOULD CERTAINLY BE BETTER IF THE FRONT MOVED
THROUGH CLOSER TO PEAK HEATING. STILL...A HIGH SHEAR LOW CAPE
SCENARIO COULD SUPPORT A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS THE AREA
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT AND WILL KEEP MENTION IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
TRUE FALL AIR WILL ENVELOP THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH
COOLER AND MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...VFR EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT AS S-SW WINDS
AROUND 5 KT WILL KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER WELL MIXED. DO NOT
ANTICIPATE ANY FOG ATTM...EVEN FOR KFLO/KLBT...GIVEN THE STRONGER
LOW LEVEL WINDS AND SOME LINGERING DEBRIS CLOUDS. SAT WILL BE VFR
WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 10 KT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE AS THE FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD...AND HAVE ADDED VCSH FOR
KILM/KLBT BEGINNING AT 21Z SAT AND KCRE/KMYR/KFLO AT 00Z SUN IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE BOUNDARY. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...EXPECT
THE FRONT TO BE BISECTING THE FORECAST AREA...WITH NORTHERLY WINDS
AT KLBT/KILM AND LIGHT/VRBL WINDS AT THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS. THE
COOL AND SHALLOW N-NE FLOW WILL LEAD TO POST-FRONTAL MVFR/IFR
STRATUS AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS BY 06Z SUN. WILL ONLY DROP CIGS
TO 1KFT AT KLBT/KILM ATTM BASED ON THE FCST SOUNDINGS AND GIVEN
THE UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...POST-FRONTAL MVFR/IFR CIGS EXPECTED SUN THROUGH
EARLY MON. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP MON AFTN/NIGHT.
SHOWERS/TSTMS AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED TUE AFTN/NIGHT WITH A
STRONG COLD FRONT PASSAGE. VFR ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1:30 AM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:
WINDS ARE RUNNING FAIRLY CLOSE TO PREDICTION ACROSS THE WATERS
NORTH OF MYRTLE BEACH...HOWEVER FROM MYRTLE BEACH SOUTHWARD
OBSERVATIONS HAVE BEEN RUNNING A FEW KNOTS BELOW FORECAST. ONLY
MINOR TWEAKS ARE NEEDED HOWEVER. LATEST OBSERVED SEAS REMAIN 1-2
FEET. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 730 PM FOLLOWS...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA WITH A
WEAKENING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ANALYZED JUST OFFSHORE. THIS IS
PRODUCING A ZONE OF RELATIVELY WEAK WINDS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
WATERS BEYOND 50 MILES FROM SHORE AND ALSO ALONG THE GEORGIA
COAST...BUT THE FARTHER NORTH ONE TRAVELS WIND SPEEDS INCREASE.
THIS PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOCALLY...WIND
SPEEDS SHOULD INCREASE A FEW MORE KNOTS THIS EVENING AS A MODERATE
LOW LEVEL JET ORGANIZES OVERHEAD AND INCREASES WINDS AT 1000 FEET
ABOVE THE OCEAN SURFACE TO 20 KNOTS. DOWN AT THE OCEAN SURFACE
EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS...HIGHEST NEAR AND NORTH
OF CAPE FEAR. SEAS CURRENTLY 1-2 FEET SHOULD EDGE CLOSER TO 2 FEET
WITH A BIT OF A WIND CHOP EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM FRIDAY...COLD FRONT WILL SINK SLOWLY ACROSS THE
WATERS DURING THE WEEKEND...PRODUCING TWO DISTINCTLY DIFFERENT
REGIMES. SATURDAY...THE FRONT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA AND
THUS SW WINDS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE WATERS...AT SPEEDS OF 10-15
KT. THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE WATERS VERY LATE SAT
NIGHT...DROPPING ACROSS AMZ250 FIRST...AND THEN PROCEEDING SOUTH
ACROSS AMZ256 LAST...BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A SUDDEN WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH...BECOMING
NORTHEAST...AND THEN EVENTUALLY EAST LATE SUNDAY...AS SPEEDS SURGE
UPWARDS OF 15-20 KT. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE 2-4 FT THROUGH THE
PERIOD...BUT A SOUTHERLY WIND WAVE AND WEAK SE SWELL WILL DOMINATE
THE SPECTRUM SATURDAY...WHILE A GROWING NE WIND WAVE WILL DEVELOP
THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS PRODUCES A CONFUSED SPECTRUM...ESPECIALLY SAT
NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY...WHEN MARINE CONDITIONS COULD BECOME
HAZARDOUS EVEN WHILE REMAINING BELOW ANY CAUTIONARY THRESHOLDS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM FRIDAY...WINDS VEER MORE SOUTHERLY ON MONDAY IN A
PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS...AND THEN STEADILY INCREASE IN SPEED DURING
TUESDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. WINDS
SPEEDS OF 15-20 KT WILL BE COMMON MONDAY NIGHT...TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTS UPWARD OF 25 KT AT TIMES. THESE WINDS
WILL DRIVE WAVE HEIGHTS UP TO 4-6 FT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED MOST OF TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY INTO EXACTLY WHEN THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE
WATERS...BUT IT APPEARS TO BE TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY.
OFFSHORE WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT LATER WEDNESDAY WITH
WINDS/SEAS IMPROVING.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...REK/TRA
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...REK/BJR
MARINE...99/REK/TRA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
1151 PM CDT FRI OCT 10 2014
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
IFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS / SCATTERED THUNDER MOVING ACROSS
TAF AREA OVERNIGHT. IFR/LOW MVFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY WITH
MORE SHOWERS POSSIBLE THUNDER LIKELY TO REDEVELOP. TAF SITE
KBVO MAY REMAIN NORTH OF PRECIP AND LOWER CONDITIONS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 802 PM CDT FRI OCT 10 2014/
UPDATE...
POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED FOR TONIGHT...MAINLY CONFINING THE HIGHEST
POPS IN THE SOUTH. SEE DISCUSSION BELOW.
DISCUSSION...
THE SURFACE FRONT HAS SUNK DOWN INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS
EVENING...AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SAG SOUTH TOWARD THE RED
RIVER. STABILIZATION HAS TAKEN PLACE WELL NORTH OF THE FRONT
ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. ELEVATED STORMS
CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WHERE THE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY LIES. ACTIVITY OVER CENTRAL OKLAHOMA SHOULD WEAKEN AS
IT TRACKS INTO THE MORE STABLE AIR OVER NE OK AND NW AR...THUS
THIS CASTS SOME DOUBT AS TO WHETHER THERE IS ANY FLOODING
POTENTIAL FOR NW AR TO KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING. WILL WAIT
ON SOME NEW 00Z NAM AND HRRR DATA BEFORE MAKING FINAL DECISION. I
HAVE CUT WAY BACK ON POPS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-44 AND MAY CUT POPS
BACK OVER NW AR IF THE TRENDS CONTINUE.
LACY
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 650 PM CDT FRI OCT 10 2014/
AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY SOUTHEAST OK
AND WEST CENTRAL AR TAF SITES KMLC KFSM THIS EVENING INTO
OVERNIGHT. LOW MVFR CEILING KBVO...IFR CEILINGS KTUL KRVS
KXNA KFYV SLOWLY RISING THEN HOLDING AROUND 10-15 HND FEET
OVERNIGHT. SLOW IMPROVEMENT SATURDAY FROM THE NORTH WITH
GENERALLY MVFR CEILINGS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM CDT FRI OCT 10 2014/
DISCUSSION...
SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR
KADM TO NEAR KMLC AND INTO WEST-CENTRAL ARKANSAS. SOME OF THESE
STORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE
WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG AND LI VALUES AROUND
-5. LARGE HAIL AND WIND GUST TO AROUND 65 MPH WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERN. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE
CONVECTION BECOMES MORE ELEVATED. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO A
CONCERN WITH THESE STORMS. 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE
WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND
INTO SATURDAY AS SEVERAL MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
AND AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY MOVES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.
STILL A CONCERN ABOUT FLASH FLOODING IN THE FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS COUNTIES
AS THE GROUND ACROSS THAT AREA IS ALREADY SATURATED. SOME LOCATIONS IN
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS COULD SEE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN WHICH COULD POSE A
FLASH FLOOD CONCERN. WILL LEAVE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN PLACE FOR TONIGHT
FOR THE NORTHWEST ARKANSAS COUNTIES WHILE DROPPING THE NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
COUNTIES WHERE LESSER RAIN FALL AMOUNTS ARE ANTICIPATED. THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES MOVES EAST OF THE
TULSA FORECAST AREA.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS A STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES
AND ACROSS THE AREA. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM. A SQUALL LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS
PORTIONS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS. THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO END MONDAY NIGHT AS THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS DRY AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER
THE AREA. THE NEXT FRONT IS EXPECTED TO COME THROUGH THE AREA DRY ON
FRIDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 49 58 46 73 / 30 40 10 20
FSM 61 64 53 73 / 90 60 30 20
MLC 52 60 47 74 / 90 40 20 20
BVO 50 58 44 72 / 20 30 10 20
FYV 51 58 47 69 / 50 60 30 20
BYV 48 56 46 68 / 50 70 30 20
MKO 52 58 48 71 / 50 50 20 20
MIO 48 57 46 70 / 20 40 20 20
F10 50 58 47 73 / 70 40 10 20
HHW 60 66 52 74 / 90 40 20 20
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY FOR OKZ073-OKZ075-OKZ076.
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-
ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM....18
AVIATION...21
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AMARILLO TX
1154 PM CDT FRI OCT 10 2014
.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/ IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT...WITH
CIGS AT 400-800 FT. PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE WILL LOWER VISIBILITIES TO
AROUND 2-4 MILES AT TIMES. STRATUS DECK WILL EVENTUALLY THIN SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING BY AROUND 15-16Z. LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR UNDER 10 KTS THROUGH THE VALID TAF
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH WINDS EVENTUALLY TURNING OUT OF THE SOUTH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
CLK
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 936 PM CDT FRI OCT 10 2014/
UPDATE...
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND POST FRONTAL STRATUS REMAINS FIRMLY IN
PLACE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. A DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS WILL GREATLY
LIMIT ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE AREA...SO REMOVED THE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT. THE 00Z KAMA RAOB INDICATES A DEEP LAYER OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND WITH PATCHY LIGHT FOG AND DRIZZLE ALREADY BEING REPORTED
OVER THE AREA...HAVE GONE AND INSERTED A MENTION THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED SKY COVER UP AND INCREASED LOW TEMPS OVER
THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS AS EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER SHOULD PREVENT LOWS
FROM FALLING MUCH BELOW THE 40 DEGREE MARK.
CLK
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 723 PM CDT FRI OCT 10 2014/
AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AT ALL
THE TAF SITES UNTIL ROUGHLY 15Z. CEILINGS BETWEEN 500 AND 1000
FT...WITH POSSIBLE BR AND DZ LOWERING VISIBILITIES TO 4 TO 5 MILES AT
TIMES. CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT TO BRIEFLY MVFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY
MORNING BEFORE VFR CONDITIONS ARE ESTABLISHED BY 18Z AT ALL SITES.
NF
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CDT FRI OCT 10 2014/
DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NEW
MEXICO. A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH NORTH WINDS
GUSTING AROUND 30 MPH. WINDS WILL DECREASE GRADUALLY THIS EVENING AS
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. LOW STRATUS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT
AND LAST INTO THE MORNING BEFORE CLEARING BY LATE MORNING OR MIDDAY.
THIS WILL HELP KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S AT
MOST LOCATIONS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO THE
FAR SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER IN THIS AREA INTO THE EVENING.
PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT EAST OVERNIGHT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
TOMORROW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MID
OCTOBER.
THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL UNDERGO SIGNIFICANT AMPLIFICATION THIS
WEEKEND AS A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EVOLVES OVER THE PLAIN BY
SUNDAY. THIS WILL FORCE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE PANHANDLES
LEADING TO A COMPLICATED AND POTENTIALLY ACTIVE WEATHER DAY ON
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON
TIMING/POSITION RESULTING IN INCREASED CONFIDENCE ON WINDY
CONDITIONS. DURING THE AFTERNOON DEEP MIXING SHOULD RESULT IN PEAK
WIND GUSTS IN THE 30-40 MPH RANGE BEHIND THE EASTWARD MIXING DRYLINE
AND SOUTH OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK.
LOW LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE AND STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO AT LEAST MARGINAL INSTABILITY
FOR A BRIEF PERIOD LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS COMBINED
WITH RATHER INTENSE FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL RESULT IN SOME
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE PANHANDLES
LATE SUNDAY. DEEPER MORE INTENSE CONVECTION SHOULD BE JUST EAST OF
THE PANHANDLES WHERE MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION IS
SHOWN BY THE MODELS. NEVERTHELESS SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS ON
THE FINER DETAILS SUCH AS THE POSITION OF THE DRYLINE AND QUALITY OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WHICH HAS IMPLICATIONS FOR STORM SEVERITY.
THE FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO POTENTIAL FOR STRONG POST FRONTAL NORTHERLY
WINDS LATER SUNDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. HAVE TRENDED WIND SPEEDS UP
FOR BOTH PRE-FRONTAL AND POST-FRONTAL.
DIFFERENCES IN MEDIUM RANGE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE THAT APPEARS
EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR
THE PANHANDLES. THE GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
THAN THE ECMWF AND GEM AND CONSEQUENTLY IS FASTER WITH MOVING THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE AREA. ASIDE FROM SOME UNCERTAINTY IN
TEMPERATURE FORECAST...THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT ISSUES IN THE LONG
TERM. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD OCCUR FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK
WITH DRY CONDITIONS.
BRB
FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY/S PATTERN WILL PROMOTE WARM/DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS.
AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL FALL INTO THE 15-20 PERCENT RANGE OVER THE
WESTERN PANHANDLES WITH SUSTAINED WINDS APPROACHING 20 MPH /20 FT/.
HOWEVER CONTINUED MOIST/GREEN VEGETATION WITH NEAR NORMAL ERC/S
DURING THE ONGOING GROWING SEASON WILL PRECLUDE A SIGNIFICANT
WILDLAND FIRE RISK.
LINDLEY
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
926 AM MDT SAT OCT 11 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 918 AM MDT SAT OCT 11 2014
STUBBORN AREA OF FOG OVER CENTRAL WELD COUNTY FINALLY SHOWING SOME
SIGNS OF LIFTING THIS MORNING. HAVE UPDATED TO KEEP FOG IN THE
GRIDS THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING NORTH OF DENVER. ALSO OPTED TO ADD
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON. BEST AREA ACCORDING
TO THE LATEST HRRR MAY BE OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE DROPPING OUT OF WY BROUGHT SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND
ONE LTG STRIKE TO NORTHERN LARIMER COUNTY THIS MORNING...SO HAVE
ADDED SOME ISOLATED POPS THERE AS WELL. THIS FEATURE MAY ALSO HELP
TO BREAK UP THE AREA OF FOG AS WELL THIS MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 330 AM MDT SAT OCT 11 2014
FOR THIS MORNING THERE WILL BE AREAS OF PATCHY FOG OVER THE PLAINS.
THE HRRR INDICATES THERE COULD BE SOME DENSE FOG ALONG THE SOUTH
PLATTE RIVER VALLEY IN THE 10Z-15Z TIMEFRAME.
FOR THIS AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN
NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS SOME MID LVL
MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE AND WITH LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 7.5 AND 8.5
C/KM WILL SEE AT LEAST WDLY SCT SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AT
LOWER ELEVATIONS THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME WDLY SCT HIGH BASED
SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVENING SO WILL MENTION LOW
POPS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND NR THE WY BORDER. AS FOR HIGHS 850-
700 MB TEMPS RISE QUITE A BIT TODAY SO WILL KEEP READINGS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S AROUND DENVER WITH UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S OVER THE
REST OF THE PLAINS.
BY TONIGHT THE WK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE SE OF THE AREA AS STRONGER
FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF A STRONGER SYSTEM WHICH WILL
AFFECT THE RGN ON SUN. CROSS-SECTIONS SHOW LIMITED MOISTURE
OVERNIGHT SO WILL ONLY MENTION A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS IN THE MTNS.
WITH INCREASING FLOW ALOFT GUSTY WINDS WILL DVLP IN THE MTNS AND
HIGHER FOOTHILLS AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT SPEEDS SHOULD STAY BLO WARNING
CRITERIA.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM MDT SAT OCT 11 2014
MODELS HAVE AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY
WITH A NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY JET MAXIMUM TO MOVE ACROSS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. MONDAY NIGHT SHOWS DECREASING NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT FOR THE FORECAST AREA. THE QG VERTICAL VELOCITY FIELDS
SHOW A PERIOD OF DECENT UPWARD MOTION FOR US ON SUNDAY. PRETTY
STRONG DOWNWARD MOTION IS INDICATE LATER SUNDAY EVENING INTO
EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BECOMES NORTH-
NORTHWESTERLY FOR MUCH OF THE CWA ON SUNDAY INTO THE EVENING
...THEN MORE NORTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
THE COLD FRONT STILL LOOKS TO GET INTO THE PLAINS AROUND NOONTIME.
NORMAL DRAINAGE PATTERNS MAY RETURN FOR MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS
CERTAINLY SOME MOISTURE AROUND WITH SUNDAY`S UPPER TROUGH
CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING...THEN THINGS DRY OUT PRETTY WELL
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. DEW POINT PROGS HAVE READINGS MAINLY IN
THE 30S F ON SUNDAY...THEN THE 20S F ON MONDAY. THERE IS A TAD OF
CAPE PROGGED SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THEN NONE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
THE QPF FIELDS HAVE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
EVENING...NOTHING SIGNIFICANT HOWEVER. THE SNOW LEVEL LOOKS A BIT
HIGHER THAN IT DID FROM THE PREVIOUS RUNS. THERE COULD BE SOME
SNOW AS LOW AS 7000 MSL BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT
POPS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE AFTER SUNSET. FOR POPS...WILL NOT
CHANGE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING VERY MUCH. THE HIGH COUNTY WILL
SEE 50-80%S WITH THE TROUGH...NOTHING ABOVE 50%S FOR THE PLAINS
RIGHT NOW. SEE NO REASON FOR HIGHLIGHTS RIGHT NOW. FOR
TEMPERATURES...SUNDAY`S HIGHS ARE DOWN UP TO 10C FROM TODAY`S
HIGHS. MONDAY`S HIGHS WARM UP 2-4 C FROM SUNDAY`S. FOR THE LATER
DAYS...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THERE IS UPPER RIDGING OR FLAT
UPPER RIDGING OVER THE CWA ALL FOUR DAYS. MOISTURE IS POOR AND
TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 918 AM MDT SAT OCT 11 2014
WNDS WILL REMAIN DRAINAGE THRU THE MORNING HOURS WITH ANY FOG
STAYING NORTH OF THE AIRPORT. BY MIDDAY WINDS WINDS WILL BECOME
MORE SSE. AFTER 21Z THERE COULD BE A WIND SHIFT TO A MORE WLY
DIRECTION AS OUTFLOW FM SOME HIGH BASED SHOWERS MOVES ACROSS.
AFTER 01Z WINDS SHOULD BECOME MORE SLY AND THEN SSW BY 04Z. HAVE
ADDED ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS TO THE PUBLIC FORECAST THIS AFTN BUT
WILL KEEP VCSH IN THE TAFS FOR NOW...BEST INSTABILITY FOR ANY
TSTMS MAY BE MORE WEST AND SOUTH OF DENVER THIS AFTN.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...COOPER
SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...COOPER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
1109 AM EDT SAT OCT 11 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE FELT ACROSS THE REGION AGAIN TODAY.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIP SOUTH ACROSS THE MIDLANDS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE
NORTH SUNDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. COOL
TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NEARLY ZONAL WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF
THE COUNTRY WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY TONIGHT AS A POSITIVELY TILTED
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED
FROM CENTRAL TEXAS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO
SOUTHERN VIRGINIA.
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
NORTH AND WEST OF THE MIDLANDS FROM NORTHEAST GA INTO THE UPSTATE
OF SC. MESO ANALYSIS SHOWED LIFTED INDICES AROUND MINUS 3C ACROSS
THE CSRA...AND THE RAP AND NAM MODELS INDICATED THIS AREA OF
INSTABILITY TO SPREAD INTO THE MIDLANDS. WITH THE CONVECTION TO
THE NORTH AND WEST SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD AND AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE AREA BUT MORE LIKELY NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR.
KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90...WHICH IS IN LINE
WITH GUIDANCE CONSENSUS.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE MIDLANDS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT THEN STALL NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF
THE CSRA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL RIDGE INTO
THE CAROLINAS RESULTING IN A SHALLOW WEDGE/COLD AIR DAMMING
OVERNIGHT. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD RESULT IN SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN
AND DRIZZLE TONIGHT. CLOUDS AND LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL HOLD
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO MID 60S SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CHALLENGING FORECAST WITH SHALLOW WEDGE SUNDAY ERODING MONDAY AS
LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS TO SOUTHEAST..AS THE SURFACE RIDGE TO THE
NORTH MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL BE
MUCH COOLER. HAVE INDICATED A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE WITH
CONTINUED WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. COULD SEE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE CSRA CLOSERS TO THE FRONT. FOR SUNDAY...RANGED HIGH
TEMPERATURES FROM THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO LOWER 80S SOUTH.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
IT APPEARS THE WEDGE WILL ERODE MONDAY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS AT
H850MB INCREASES TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS. KEPT CHANCE OF CONVECTION FOR
MONDAY AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES MODERATELY UNSTABLE. WENT
SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
MID 80S. SHOULD BE MILD MONDAY NIGHT AS THE STRONG COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WIND AND CLOUDS WILL HOLD OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS NEAR THE ATLANTIC COAST AND A DEEP TROUGH
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS CAUSING AN AMPLIFIED UPPER
PATTERN FOR THE LONG TERM. A STRONG COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE
REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS MIDWEST UPPER TROUGH
MOVES EAST. CONFIDENCE HIGH ENOUGH FOR LIKELY POPS TUESDAY BASED
ON GFS ENSEMBLES. MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUGGEST SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL. DRY REST OF PERIOD BEHIND FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BEHIND
FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING BRINGING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY RESTRICTIONS DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS
AT THIS TIME DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND COVERAGE.
RESTRICTIONS WILL RETURN OVERNIGHT AS A WEDGE DEVELOPS AND LOW
CLOUDS AND LOWER VSBYS RETURN TO THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES
IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND THE WEDGE BEGINS TO SET UP FOR SUNDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED AS A WEDGE
DEVELOPS EARLY SUNDAY AND PERSISTS INTO MONDAY. RESTRICTIONS ALSO
EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION BRINGING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
745 AM EDT SAT OCT 11 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE FELT ACROSS THE REGION AGAIN TODAY.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIP SOUTH ACROSS THE MIDLANDS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE
NORTH SUNDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. COOL
TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NEARLY ZONAL WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF
THE COUNTRY WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY TONIGHT AS A POSITIVELY TILTED
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED
FROM CENTRAL TEXAS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO
SOUTHERN VIRGINIA.
HIGH RESOLUTION HRRR MODEL INDICATES SCATTERED CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ACROSS MIDLANDS THIS MORNING. HOWEVER..LATEST RADAR
IMAGERY INDICATES PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE AREA FROM NORTHEAST
GA INTO THE UPSTATE OF SC. MESO ANALYSIS SHOWED LIFTED INDICES
AROUND MINUS 3C ACROSS THE CSRA... AND THE RAP AND NAM MODELS
INDICATED THIS AREA OF INSTABILITY TO SPREAD INTO THE MIDLANDS.
WITH THE DEVELOPING CONVECTION INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE
CSRA AND MIDLANDS THIS MORNING.
SHOULD SEE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES DURING MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON.
MODERATE INSTABILITY AND WEAK SHEAR MAY RESULT IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AFTERNOON. KEPT TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90...WHICH IS IN LINE WITH GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE MIDLANDS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT THEN STALL NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF
THE CSRA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL RIDGE INTO
THE CAROLINAS RESULTING IN A SHALLOW WEDGE/COLD AIR DAMMING
OVERNIGHT. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD RESULT IN SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN
AND DRIZZLE TONIGHT. CLOUDS AND LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL HOLD
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO MID 60S SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CHALLENGING FORECAST WITH SHALLOW WEDGE SUNDAY ERODING MONDAY AS
LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS TO SOUTHEAST..AS THE SURFACE RIDGE TO THE
NORTH MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL BE
MUCH COOLER. HAVE INDICATED A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE WITH
CONTINUED WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. COULD SEE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE CSRA CLOSERS TO THE FRONT. FOR SUNDAY...RANGED HIGH
TEMPERATURES FROM THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO LOWER 80S SOUTH.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
IT APPEARS THE WEDGE WILL ERODE MONDAY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS AT
H850MB INCREASES TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS. KEPT CHANCE OF CONVECTION FOR
MONDAY AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES MODERATELY UNSTABLE. WENT
SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
MID 80S. SHOULD BE MILD MONDAY NIGHT AS THE STRONG COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WIND AND CLOUDS WILL HOLD OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS NEAR THE ATLANTIC COAST AND A DEEP TROUGH
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS CAUSING AN AMPLIFIED UPPER
PATTERN FOR THE LONG TERM. A STRONG COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE
REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS MIDWEST UPPER TROUGH
MOVES EAST. CONFIDENCE HIGH ENOUGH FOR LIKELY POPS TUESDAY BASED
ON GFS ENSEMBLES. MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUGGEST SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL. DRY REST OF PERIOD BEHIND FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BEHIND
FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LIGHT WINDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARE PROMOTING PATCHY STRATUS
AND FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING. RESTRICTIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
DAYBREAK WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR EXPECTED AROUND 14/15Z. KOGB
EXPERINCING IFR CONDITIONS WITH VSBYS RISING FROM 1/4SM TO 3/4 SM.
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT BRINGING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY RESTRICTIONS AT THIS TIME DUE
TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND COVERAGE. RESTRICTIONS WILL RETURN
OVERNIGHT AS A WEDGE DEVELOPS AND LOW CLOUDS RETURN TO THE AREA.
WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH- SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING AND
VEER TO WESTERLY BY 21Z AND VEER TO NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY TOWARD THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES IN BEHIND THE FRONT
AND THE WEDGE BEGINS TO SET UP.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED AS A WEDGE
DEVELOPS EARLY SUNDAY AND PERSISTS INTO MONDAY. RESTRICTIONS ALSO
EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION BRINGING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
909 AM EDT Sat Oct 11 2014
...Forecast Update...
Issued at 905 AM EDT Sat Oct 11 2014
Removed thunder wording from across our south. Latest high-res
guidance indicates little to no lightning potential down there.
Given fairly uniform temperatures north to south and cloud cover,
think it`s a good bet not to get any thunder today. Sharp pop
gradient across the region still looks good. Only other addition was
a layer in between where we may see some scattered sprinkles, still
mainly south of the I-64 corridor. Latest HRRR seems too far north
with its rain shield, but would not be surprised to see some
sprinkles edge in this afternoon.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday)...
Issued at 303 AM EDT Sat Oct 11 2014
The cold front that moved through the area yesterday will continue
to slowly sink to the south and east this morning. This boundary
will eventually stall out across TN. Aloft a shortwave will approach
the area today.
Most of the showers have moved east of the region early this
morning. Some patchy drizzle will be possible, but most areas will
be dry. As the upper level disturbance nears, showers and possibly a
few thunderstorms will develop and move into south central Kentucky.
Have lowered pops across the northern half of the forecast area
considerably and taken them out all together in places. Models all
suggest that precip will remain closer to the surface boundary
today. Will continue to mention scattered precipitation overnight.
For Sunday the boundary will begin to lift back to the north as a
warm front. With this moisture will be on the increase as will
showers and thunderstorms. Have kept pops lower in southern Indiana
as the front may not make it that far north during the day.
Temperatures today will remain on the cool side with highs topping
out in the lower 60s. Lows tonight will range from the upper 40s to
mid 50s. Sunday will be quite a bit warmer in many places with the
warm front lifting north across the region. Highs will range from
the upper 60s in the north to the mid 70s in the south.
.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)...
Issued at 350 AM EDT Sat Oct 11 2014
...Strong Thunderstorms and Heavy Rainfall Likely Monday Night Into
Tuesday Morning...
The long term period will start out with a broad southwesterly flow
at the surface and aloft. While a mid-level wave will be exiting
the area, the multi-model consensus is in agreement with the
nocturnal low-level jet kicking up. This feature combined with
low-level moisture transport and some elevated instability as noted
by model proximity soundings should support a continued convective
threat during the overnight hours. Coverage is likely to be in on
the high end of the chance range...perhaps even rising to the likely
range. The increase in moisture transport will result in heavier
rainfall potential...with some storms possibly producing torrential
rainfall at times.
Convective activity will likely diminish in coverage Monday morning
as the low-level jet retrogrades west and away from the region.
Southerly level low flow will increase moderately throughout the
day. We expect to be deep in the warm sector throughout the day as
temperatures are likely to warm into the upper 70s. Some breaks in
the cloud cover may occur, and if so, then will push our maximum
temps into the lower 80s. Within the broad warm air advection
scheme, we`ll likely see instability develop during the afternoon
hours. Overall, the instability will likely be conditional on the
amount of insolation we receive throughout the day. Nonetheless, we
should see at least some isolated-scattered convection developing
during the afternoon/eve hours.
Monday night still looks to be the main time for strong/severe
convection across the region. Strong synoptic scale ascent,
courtesy of large H5 height falls with an approaching front,
combined with an increasing low-level jet should result in a rather
extensive squall line developing to the west of the Ohio Valley.
The multi-model consensus continues to be in good agreement with
40-55kts of bulk shear, with a low-level jet axis of 50-65kts
impinging into the Ohio Valley late Monday night. Current thinking
is that the large squall line out to the west will slide eastward
into our region late Monday night and early Tuesday morning. Given
that the line will be moving in as instability drops, due to
nocturnal cooling/loss of insolation, strong dynamical forcing will
likely keep storms at strong to severe levels. CIPS analog guidance
suggests that a decent severe weather risk will be possible across
the region...though the highest threat will likely remain to our
west and southwest. Torrential rainfall and damaging winds look to
be the main severe weather hazards. However, the quasi-linear
squall line will likely have embedded bowing line segments that
could result in some isolated tornadoes. Obviously something to
watch over the next few days.
Surface cold front should push through the region on Tuesday
bringing the threat of heavy rainfall to a gradual end by Tuesday
evening. Temperatures Tuesday will likely have early morning highs
with temperatures falling a bit during the day. Highs will range
from the lower 60s in the north to the mid 60s down south. Lows
Tuesday night should cool down into the upper 40s.
For Wednesday and beyond, there continues to be a rather large
spread in the guidance on how the upper level flow will evolve. The
GFS and GEM runs are more progressive with the upper level flow
while the Euro has continued the idea of a massive cut off low
developing over the eastern US. By all accounts the Euro solution
remains an outlier, but in comparison, much of the other guidance is
gradually slowing down aloft during the period. Given the usual
superiority of the Euro in the long term, its hard to ignore the
last several runs suggesting this cut off low. For now, have
trended the forecast toward this idea, but have not completely
discounted the progressive GFS/GEM runs. We`ll keep some diurnally
driven showers in the forecast for Wed-Fri since we`ll probably be
under the cut off. Clouds associated with the cut off will likely
keep our temperatures down. Thus, have trimmed back highs on the
SuperBlend guidance and gone with lower-mid 60s for highs and
overnight lows in the 40s.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 350 AM EDT Sat Oct 11 2014
From a hydrologic standpoint, expect highest rainfall amounts today
and tonight to be mainly across southern Kentucky which will be
closer to the surface frontal boundary. This boundary will lift
northward on Sunday bringing better chances of precipitation to the
region. While widespread heavy rain is not expected, but where
storms do occur, high rainfall rates could cause ponding of water
and could result in area creeks and streams filling up rather
quickly.
More heavy rainfall...and perhaps more widespread...will occur late
Monday and into Tuesday as a strong upper trough and surface cold
front move through the region. The exact evolution of this system
will determine whether 1) copious rain amounts fall over KY and
southern IN, or 2) whether rainfall is heavy but progressive, or 3)
whether the heaviest rain and strongest (possibly severe) storms
remain more across TN and the northern Gulf states. Either of the
last two scenarios described above looks like the best bet right
now. Nevertheless, periods of heavy rain should fall Monday night,
with rain diminishing in intensity on Tuesday.
General rainfall amounts could vary widely across central KY and
southern IN through Tuesday morning depending on storm coverage and
propagation. Nevertheless, with high atmospheric moisture content,
most storms should produce brief heavy rain. Total accumulated
rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches, possibly isolated higher
especially in southern KY, could occur by Tuesday morning. Depending
on how storms evolve over the next few days, a Flood or Flash Flood
Watch may be required in later forecasts.
&&
.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 630 AM EDT Sat Oct 11 2014
Low ceilings will continue to be the main issue for this TAF period.
Ceilings at SDF have risen to MVFR this morning and LEX is currently
IFR. Drier air will be moving in today across north central KY with
an area of high pressure. Thus, ceilings are expected to improve
slowly at these two sites through the morning and they will become
VFR this afternoon. Winds will remain out of the northeast today
around 7-9 knots.
Low level moisture will keep cigs lower at BWG thanks to its
proximity to a stalled frontal boundary. Conditions will improve
somewhat but cigs are expected to remain MVFR through the day. In
addition showers will move into the area and across the airport at
times.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Update.........RJS
Short Term.....EER
Long Term......MJ
Hydrology......MJ/EER
Aviation.......EER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
917 AM MDT SAT OCT 11 2014
.UPDATE...
MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED COLD FRONT FROM JUST N OF ID
THROUGH S ALBERTA THEN NE INTO W CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN. MODELS HAD
A GOOD HANDLE ON FRONTAL PLACEMENT. SOME ECHO WAS SHOWING UP ON
RADAR OVER W MT. CHECK OF THE WEBCAMS SHOWED THIS WAS ALTOCUMULUS
AND MOUNTAINS DID NOT APPEAR TO BE AFFECTED BY ANY SHOWERS. THERE
WERE A COUPLE OF SHOWERS OVER SE MT EARLIER THIS MORNING DUE TO A
SHORTWAVE...SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...BUT THESE HAVE
DISSIPATED. THE WAVE WAS MOVING E AND WOULD NOT EXPECT ANY MORE
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OVER SE MT AS IT MOVES OUT. MOISTURE WILL
DEEPEN OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND NEARBY AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS
VORTICITY INCREASES OVER THESE AREAS AND THE FRONT SINKS SE. HRRR
WAS TOO FAST IN PRODUCING PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA THIS
MORNING...BUT OTHER MODELS LOOKED MORE REASONABLE. RAP BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SHOWED VERY DRY AIR OVER E MT/KSHR THIS AFTERNOON SO
HAVE REMOVED POPS FROM THESE AREAS AND KEPT POPS FROM KBIL AND THE
NE BIG HORNS W. THESE POPS WERE IN LINE WITH QPF FROM NEW WRF AND
GFS. KEPT THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST BASED ON WRF NOT SHOWING
MUCH INSTABILITY. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE TONIGHT
OVER THE AREA AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WERE IN GOOD SHAPE BASED ON MIXING TO 700 MB.
INCREASED WINDS A BIT THROUGH THE DAY BASED ON EXPECTED MIXING. IT
WILL BE A BREEZY AND MILD DAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. INCREASED
CLOUD COVER THROUGH 18Z OVER WESTERN AREAS DUE TO THE MID LEVEL
CLOUDS. ARTHUR
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SUN...
A STRONG PACIFIC JET STREAM WILL NOSE INTO THE AREA
TODAY...GENERATING DOWNSLOPE WARMING THAT WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES
INTO THE 65 TO 75 DEGREE RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS DOWNSLOPE FLOW
WILL ALSO PREVENT PRECIPITATON FOR MOST OF THE DAY DESPITE A
STRONG INFLUX OF PACIFIC MOISTURE OVER THE AREA...BUT A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.
BY LATE IN THE DAY THE JET WILL DEVELOP A PRONOUNCED KINK
SOUTHWARD AS A STRONG DISTURBANCE PUNCHES SOUTHEAST OUT OF
BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE TROF OVER THE
AREA TO MORPH INTO A COLD FRONT AS COOLER AIR GETS DRAGGED SOUTH
OUT OF CANADA ALONG WITH DYNAMIC COOLING AS THE UPPER PATTERN
BECOMES DIFFLUENT AND QG FORCING RAPIDLY INCREASES. WITH STRONG
DYNAMICS ALOFT AND SURFACE TO 700MB FRONTOGENESIS BUILDING OVER
THE AREA PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE STRONG DYNAMICS THE MODELS ARE
SHOWING WOULD EXPECT HIGH PRECIPITATION CHANCES. HOWEVER THE LOW
LEVEL PATTERN DEVELOPS IN A WAY THAT KEEPS LOW LEVEL WINDS IN A
GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST DIRECTION RESULTING IN DOWNSLOPE DRYING
THAT WILL KEEP POPS LOWER THAN FORCING WOULD SUGGEST. IT WILL ALSO
TAKE A WHILE FOR THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE TO MOISTEN UP ENOUGH FOR
PRECIPITATION TO REACH THE GROUND. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
WILL BE GENERALLY SOUTH OF A LIVINGSTON TO BILLINGS TO EKALAKA
LINE LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OFF
AND ON OVERNIGHT TO THE NORTH OF THE LINE. OVERALL PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT AND WILL RANGE FROM A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF
AN INCH OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS TO OVER A QUARTER OF AN
INCH IN SOME SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS LOCATIONS THAT ARE FAVORABLE TO
NORTHWEST WINDS. 700MB TEMPERATURES WILL DROP ENOUGH FOR SNOW TO
DEVELOP ABOVE 7000 FEET LATE THIS EVENING. EXPECT 2 TO 4 INCHES OF
SNOW ABOVE THIS ELEVATION. THIS WILL IMPACT TRAVEL OVER THE
BEARTOOTH PASS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
FOR SUNDAY...MOST OF THE UPPER DYNAMICS SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE AREA
IN THE MORNING HOURS. THIS LEAVES THE AREA UNDER THE MEAN TROF FOR
THE AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
SHOWERS INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH SOME MORE PERSISTENT BANDING
POSSIBLE OFF THE CRAZY...SNOWY AND LITTLE BELT MOUNTAINS.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THROUGH THE DAY MAKING TEMPERATURES
FEEL COLDER THAN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S EXPECTED FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES. WINDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY
EVENING. CLEARING WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S WITH SOME
SUB- FREEZING READINGS POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND
LOWER 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS. CHAMBERS
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON MONDAY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOL BUT
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL START DRYING OUT THE
AIRMASS. RIDGE AXIS CROSSES THE STATE TUESDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE
FORMING OVER ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN SUPPORTING WEAK DOWNSLOPE
FLOW. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S
WHICH WILL PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY.
MODELS AGREE THAT A TRANSITION OCCURS ON THURSDAY AS A TROUGH AXIS
CROSSES MONTANA INTO THE DAKOTAS BUT THIS FEATURE IS LOOKING
WEAKER WITH EACH MODEL RUN. THE ASSOCIATED COOL DOWN AND CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION ARE LOOKING LESS AND LESS SO RAISED TEMPERATURES AND
LOWERED POPS IN THE LATER PART OF THE EXTENDED. BORSUM
&&
.AVIATION...
CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY WITH SOME MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS POSSIBLE BY LATE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AFTER
00Z OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. EXPECT GUSTY WEST WINDS
THROUGH THE DAY FOR WESTERN AREAS...THEN W-NW WINDS ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. JKL
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 073 046/056 036/062 045/072 050/073 043/061 035/060
2/W 55/W 20/U 00/U 01/U 11/N 11/U
LVM 068 040/051 032/061 042/071 047/068 039/057 033/059
2/W 56/W 20/B 00/U 11/B 21/N 11/B
HDN 075 047/059 037/064 040/075 045/075 041/064 035/063
1/B 55/W 20/U 00/U 00/U 11/N 11/U
MLS 075 047/062 037/063 040/074 045/074 043/063 034/062
1/B 33/W 10/U 00/U 00/U 21/N 11/U
4BQ 075 047/056 036/061 039/073 046/076 042/062 034/061
1/B 66/W 10/U 00/U 00/U 11/N 11/U
BHK 074 044/058 035/059 035/070 044/073 041/060 031/055
1/B 33/W 10/U 00/U 00/U 11/N 11/U
SHR 072 042/050 032/059 036/074 042/074 037/060 031/061
1/B 66/W 20/U 00/U 00/U 11/B 11/U
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MORRISTOWN TN
949 AM EDT SAT OCT 11 2014
.DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST APPEARS TO BE GENERALLY ON TRACK...BUT WILL MAKE A FEW
SMALL ADJUSTMENTS. THE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS LOW WITH A
FAIRLY STABLE 12Z OHX SOUNDING. FFC SHOWS BETTER INSTABILITY BUT
THAT SHOULD STAY TO OUR SOUTH BASED ON RUC DEPICTIONS OF LI AND
CAPE. WILL LOWER T-STORM MENTION TO JUST ISOLATED. POP
DISTRIBUTION LOOKS GOOD WITH LIKELY POPS SOUTH AND CENTRAL...AND
CHANCE POPS NORTH. TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS WILL BE TWEAKED UP A LITTLE
TO BRING THEM CLOSER TO OBS.
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
DGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
129 PM EDT Sat Oct 11 2014
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
...Forecast Update...
Issued at 905 AM EDT Sat Oct 11 2014
Removed thunder wording from across our south. Latest high-res
guidance indicates little to no lightning potential down there.
Given fairly uniform temperatures north to south and cloud cover,
think it`s a good bet not to get any thunder today. Sharp pop
gradient across the region still looks good. Only other addition was
a layer in between where we may see some scattered sprinkles, still
mainly south of the I-64 corridor. Latest HRRR seems too far north
with its rain shield, but would not be surprised to see some
sprinkles edge in this afternoon.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday)...
Issued at 303 AM EDT Sat Oct 11 2014
The cold front that moved through the area yesterday will continue
to slowly sink to the south and east this morning. This boundary
will eventually stall out across TN. Aloft a shortwave will approach
the area today.
Most of the showers have moved east of the region early this
morning. Some patchy drizzle will be possible, but most areas will
be dry. As the upper level disturbance nears, showers and possibly a
few thunderstorms will develop and move into south central Kentucky.
Have lowered pops across the northern half of the forecast area
considerably and taken them out all together in places. Models all
suggest that precip will remain closer to the surface boundary
today. Will continue to mention scattered precipitation overnight.
For Sunday the boundary will begin to lift back to the north as a
warm front. With this moisture will be on the increase as will
showers and thunderstorms. Have kept pops lower in southern Indiana
as the front may not make it that far north during the day.
Temperatures today will remain on the cool side with highs topping
out in the lower 60s. Lows tonight will range from the upper 40s to
mid 50s. Sunday will be quite a bit warmer in many places with the
warm front lifting north across the region. Highs will range from
the upper 60s in the north to the mid 70s in the south.
.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)...
Issued at 350 AM EDT Sat Oct 11 2014
...Strong Thunderstorms and Heavy Rainfall Likely Monday Night Into
Tuesday Morning...
The long term period will start out with a broad southwesterly flow
at the surface and aloft. While a mid-level wave will be exiting
the area, the multi-model consensus is in agreement with the
nocturnal low-level jet kicking up. This feature combined with
low-level moisture transport and some elevated instability as noted
by model proximity soundings should support a continued convective
threat during the overnight hours. Coverage is likely to be in on
the high end of the chance range...perhaps even rising to the likely
range. The increase in moisture transport will result in heavier
rainfall potential...with some storms possibly producing torrential
rainfall at times.
Convective activity will likely diminish in coverage Monday morning
as the low-level jet retrogrades west and away from the region.
Southerly level low flow will increase moderately throughout the
day. We expect to be deep in the warm sector throughout the day as
temperatures are likely to warm into the upper 70s. Some breaks in
the cloud cover may occur, and if so, then will push our maximum
temps into the lower 80s. Within the broad warm air advection
scheme, we`ll likely see instability develop during the afternoon
hours. Overall, the instability will likely be conditional on the
amount of insolation we receive throughout the day. Nonetheless, we
should see at least some isolated-scattered convection developing
during the afternoon/eve hours.
Monday night still looks to be the main time for strong/severe
convection across the region. Strong synoptic scale ascent,
courtesy of large H5 height falls with an approaching front,
combined with an increasing low-level jet should result in a rather
extensive squall line developing to the west of the Ohio Valley.
The multi-model consensus continues to be in good agreement with
40-55kts of bulk shear, with a low-level jet axis of 50-65kts
impinging into the Ohio Valley late Monday night. Current thinking
is that the large squall line out to the west will slide eastward
into our region late Monday night and early Tuesday morning. Given
that the line will be moving in as instability drops, due to
nocturnal cooling/loss of insolation, strong dynamical forcing will
likely keep storms at strong to severe levels. CIPS analog guidance
suggests that a decent severe weather risk will be possible across
the region...though the highest threat will likely remain to our
west and southwest. Torrential rainfall and damaging winds look to
be the main severe weather hazards. However, the quasi-linear
squall line will likely have embedded bowing line segments that
could result in some isolated tornadoes. Obviously something to
watch over the next few days.
Surface cold front should push through the region on Tuesday
bringing the threat of heavy rainfall to a gradual end by Tuesday
evening. Temperatures Tuesday will likely have early morning highs
with temperatures falling a bit during the day. Highs will range
from the lower 60s in the north to the mid 60s down south. Lows
Tuesday night should cool down into the upper 40s.
For Wednesday and beyond, there continues to be a rather large
spread in the guidance on how the upper level flow will evolve. The
GFS and GEM runs are more progressive with the upper level flow
while the Euro has continued the idea of a massive cut off low
developing over the eastern US. By all accounts the Euro solution
remains an outlier, but in comparison, much of the other guidance is
gradually slowing down aloft during the period. Given the usual
superiority of the Euro in the long term, its hard to ignore the
last several runs suggesting this cut off low. For now, have
trended the forecast toward this idea, but have not completely
discounted the progressive GFS/GEM runs. We`ll keep some diurnally
driven showers in the forecast for Wed-Fri since we`ll probably be
under the cut off. Clouds associated with the cut off will likely
keep our temperatures down. Thus, have trimmed back highs on the
SuperBlend guidance and gone with lower-mid 60s for highs and
overnight lows in the 40s.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 350 AM EDT Sat Oct 11 2014
From a hydrologic standpoint, expect highest rainfall amounts today
and tonight to be mainly across southern Kentucky which will be
closer to the surface frontal boundary. This boundary will lift
northward on Sunday bringing better chances of precipitation to the
region. While widespread heavy rain is not expected, but where
storms do occur, high rainfall rates could cause ponding of water
and could result in area creeks and streams filling up rather
quickly.
More heavy rainfall...and perhaps more widespread...will occur late
Monday and into Tuesday as a strong upper trough and surface cold
front move through the region. The exact evolution of this system
will determine whether 1) copious rain amounts fall over KY and
southern IN, or 2) whether rainfall is heavy but progressive, or 3)
whether the heaviest rain and strongest (possibly severe) storms
remain more across TN and the northern Gulf states. Either of the
last two scenarios described above looks like the best bet right
now. Nevertheless, periods of heavy rain should fall Monday night,
with rain diminishing in intensity on Tuesday.
General rainfall amounts could vary widely across central KY and
southern IN through Tuesday morning depending on storm coverage and
propagation. Nevertheless, with high atmospheric moisture content,
most storms should produce brief heavy rain. Total accumulated
rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches, possibly isolated higher
especially in southern KY, could occur by Tuesday morning. Depending
on how storms evolve over the next few days, a Flood or Flash Flood
Watch may be required in later forecasts.
&&
.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 125 PM EDT Sat Oct 11 2014
Poor ceilings continue at KBWG, but are showing signs of rising
slowly. Still expect some light rain showers down there, and they
may help to scour things enough to get cigs back into the MVFR range
in a few hours. At rest of sites models are showing some low-level
subsidence that combined with some drying should erode the MVFR cigs
some. Expect poor conditions to return overnight at least to
LEX/BWG, and perhaps to SDF by daybreak as the front over Tennessee
starts lifting northward as a warm front. This will bring a better
shot at showers during the day Sunday. Cannot rule out thunder late
in the SDF period, but too early to throw in just yet.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Update.........RJS
Short Term.....EER
Long Term......MJ
Hydrology......MJ/EER
Aviation.......RJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
340 PM EDT SAT OCT 11 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT SAT OCT 11 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW THAT THE PERSISTENT TROF
THAT HAS DOMINATED SE CANADA AND THE NE CONUS IS NOW LIFTING OUT AS
STRONG JET AND NEW TROF BEGIN TO PUSH INTO THE NWRN CONUS.
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE NRN PLAINS/SCNTRL CANADA IS ALSO BEING
FORCED EASTWARD. AS A RESULT...WAA IS BEGINNING TO SPREAD INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTN. EARLIER TODAY...QUITE A BIT OF
CU/STRATOCU DEVELOPED WITHIN 850MB THERMAL TROF THAT WAS PUSHING
ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN UPPER MI. COMBINATION OF WEAK WAA AND MIXING
OUT OF MOISTURE HAS LED TO RAPID DISSIPATION OF THESE CLOUDS FROM
THE W. AS OF 19Z...CLOUDS ARE STILL HANGING ON E OF A
MUNISING/ESCANABA LINE. EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO CLEAR OUT OVER THE
NEXT FEW HRS.
SHORT TERM WEATHER WILL BE QUIET AS UPSTREAM RIDGE SHIFTS ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT AND THEN TO THE E ON SUN. THIS WILL RESULT IN GRADUALLY
STRENGTHENING SW FLOW/WAA. TONIGHT...AXIS OF STRONGEST
WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS FOCUSED WELL TO THE N TOWARD JAMES BAY
VCNTY. SO...PCPN IS NOT A CONCERN HERE. IN FACT...SKY WILL BE CLEAR.
ONLY ISSUE TONIGHT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO DEVELOP OVER THE ERN
FCST AREA. LIGHT/CALM WIND AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AT LEAST
THRU THE EVENING WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 30S IN THE
INTERIOR AND AS LOW AS THE UPPER 20S/LWR 30S IN THE TRADITIONAL COLD
SPOTS. WITH TEMPS FALLING PAST THE CROSSOVER TEMP AND MORE
IMPORTANTLY WITH LIGHT NEAR SFC FLOW OFF NRN LAKE MICHIGAN ADVECTING
HIGHER DWPTS INLAND OVERNIGHT...SEEMS LIKELY THAT SOME FOG WILL
DEVELOP.
DESPITE PERSISTENT SW FLOW...COLUMN REMAINS DRY ON SUNDAY. THUS...
EXPECT ABUNDANT SUNSHINE ONLY FILTERED BY SOME INCREASE IN HIGH
CLOUDS DURING THE AFTN. MIXING TO 875-850MB ON FCST SOUNDINGS YIELDS
MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 50S TO AS HIGH AS THE LWR 60S.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT SAT OCT 11 2014
...WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER IN STORE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MON MORNING SHOULD END UP BEING FAIRLY QUIET WITH
THE BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH STILL WEST OF
THE AREA. HOWEVER...AS THE FRONT AND TROUGH MOVE EAST...EXPECT AN
INCREASE OF MOISTURE AND CLOUDS...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN LATE CLOSE TO THE WI BORDER.
AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST
SUNDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG IT IN THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THIS LOW WILL MOVE NORTH/NORTHEAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE
GFS LOOKS TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF IN SHOWING A
FAIRLY SHARP AREA OF DEFORMATION AND FRONTOGENETIC CIRCULATION
DEVELOPING NEAR THE INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE GFS NOW SUGGESTS THAT THE
BEST FORCING AND 850MB THERMAL PACKING WILL BE SUPPRESSED SLIGHTLY
FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH WHICH IS SIMILAR TO WHAT THE ECMWF HAS SHOWN.
AS SUCH...THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO FAR
NORTHERN LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER MI. HOWEVER...AM STILL EXPECTING
MOST OF THE EASTERN 2/3 OF UPPER MICHIGAN TO SEE STEADY RAINFALL
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY SINCE PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WILL STILL BE 150-200 PCT OF NORMAL ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN. AS SUCH...WILL MAINTAIN CATEGORICAL POPS
ACROSS MUCH OF UPPER MICHIGAN MON NIGHT AND MAINTAIN THOSE INTO TUE
MORNING ACROSS THE EAST. WITH DRY EASTERLY FLOW INITIALLY...WILL OPT
TO HOLD OFF THE STEADY PCPN ACROSS THE FAR EAST UNTIL MON EVENING.
GUSTY NORTH WINDS TUE-TUE NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR WAVES OF 7-9 FEET
ALONG THE SHORELINE OF MARQUETTE AND ALGER COUNTIES. GIVEN THE
RELATIVELY HIGH WATER LEVELS COMBINED WITH THE WAVE SETUP...THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MINOR BEACH EROSION IN THESE AREAS.
THE UPPER LOW WILL BE QUITE SLOW TO MOVE OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AS IT BECOMES CUT OFF FROM THE MEAN FLOW TO TH NORTH. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT TO PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH WED AT LEAST. MEANWHILE...CONSIDERABLY DRIER AIR ATTEMPTS TO
MOVE IN FROM THE WEST WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES LOWERING TO
BELOW 1 INCH. WITH THIS SAID...CANNOT RULE OUT A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
ACROSS THE EAST ON TUE NIGHT INTO WED WHERE THE BETTER MOISTURE WILL
BE. HOWEVER...DYNAMICS WILL BE FAIRLY LIMITED DESPITE CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT...AND INSTABILITY OFF THE LAKE WILL BE MINIMAL AT BEST DUE TO
WARM 850MB TEMPS OF AROUND +8C. WILL THEREFORE LIMIT CHC POPS ONLY
TO THE EAST TUE NIGHT INTO WED AND KEEP THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
DRY. MAY HAVE A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
FINALLY LIFTS OUT AND THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
HOWEVER...THE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE CERTAINLY NOT CONSISTENT WITH THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND PCPN IN THIS PERIOD...WITH THE ECMWF BEING
MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS OR GEM. BEHIND THIS TROUGH...850MB
TEMPS DROP TO -6C FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WHICH COMBINED WITH NW PBL
FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A
FEW WET SNOW FLAKES SATURDAY MORNING.
OVERALL...MUCH OF THE WEEK WILL SEE TEMPS AT OR ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGHS EACH DAY IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 141 PM EDT SAT OCT 11 2014
UNDER A DRY AIR MASS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW
THRU THIS FCST PERIOD. ONLY ITEM OF NOTE IS THAT CONDITIONS WILL
GET CLOSE TO LLWS CRITERIA OVERNIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT SAT OCT 11 2014
GENERALLY QUIET MARINE WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10-20 KT WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. THESE WINDS WILL PERSIST ON SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT...LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SLOWLY
MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOUTH
WINDS TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY...BEFORE SHIFTING TO
THE NORTH AND INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KT ON TUE/TUE NIGHT WITH WAVES
BUILDING TO 6-9 FEET. THE LOW WEAKENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WED WHILE
MOVING NORTHEAST...ALLOWING THE WINDS TO ALSO WEAKEN TO 10-20 KT.
SOUTH WINDS ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD
FRONT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...MRD
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...MRD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
656 PM EDT SAT OCT 11 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FRONT WILL STALL TO THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY
AND DISSIPATE OVER THE AREA. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST LATE TUESDAY AND CROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT
LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 630 PM SATURDAY...COLD FRONT HAS NOW MOVED INTO NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE CWA AND IS NOW AS FAR SOUTH AS OREGON INLET TO
NEAR KPGV. SOME SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING JUST
ALONG OR JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. AXIS OF INSTABILITY SHOULD MOVE
SOUTH WITH A THREAT OF A TSTMS LINGERING OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS
THROUGH ABOUT 01Z-03Z WHEN THE 3KM HRRR SHOWS THE FRONT MOVING OFF
THE COAST. PRIMARY THREAT WITH ANY STORMS WOULD BE HAIL AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING WITH SOME WINDS GUSTS POSSIBLE AS WELL. THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF TO LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS THE COOL AND STABLE NNE FLOW KICKS IN. TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP DRASTICALLY FROM RECORD HIGHS SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THE MID AND UPPER 50S INLAND AND LOW/MID 60S COAST BY SUNRISE
SUNDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
QUITE A TURNAROUND FROM SATURDAYS VERY WARM AND SUNNY CONDITIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH RIDGES SSW THRU THE MID ATLC REGION AND
CAROLINAS SUNDAY. THICK LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE DIFFICULT TO
SCOUR OUT IN THE PERSISTENT N/NE FLOW ON SUNDAY SO EXPECT MAINLY
CLOUDY SKIES WITH A CONTINUING CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY. CLOUDS AND COOL LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL HOLD TEMPS IN THE
60S FOR MOST AREAS THRU SUNDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SAT...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL RESIDE SOUTH OF THE
REGION SUN NIGHT WITH HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN MID
ATLANTIC RIDGING INTO THE REGION BRINGING NE FLOW AND PLENTY OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SKIES WILL LIKELY REMAIN CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY
WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE. THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE
EARLY MON WITH SE FLOW RETURNING AND CONTINUING INTO MON NIGHT.
ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TO BRING ABUNDANT MOISTURE BELOW H85 AND
CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER THIS PERIOD AS WELL THUS WILL
MAINTAIN 20 POPS. TEMPS WARM BACK INTO THE LOWER 80S INLAND AND
MID/UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST FOR MONDAY.
SURFACE FLOW SHIFTS SOUTHEASTERLY TUES AS A ROBUST UPPER TROUGH DIGS
INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS NEAR THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY PUSH NORTHEAST INTO THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH EASTERN NC
SOMETIME LATE TUES NIGHT INTO WED. 12Z GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED QUITE A
BIT WITH THE SURFACE FRONT AND THE GFS HAS TRENDED SIMILAR TO THE
PAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE ECMWF IN DEVELOPING A LARGE CUT-OFF UPPER
LOW OVER THE MIDWEST. FORECAST NOW SLOWS DOWN THE PRECIP SLIGHTLY
TUES NIGHT THROUGH WED EVENING. THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NE ACROSS THE
MIDWEST THURS AND INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA FRIDAY. STRONG TO
POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AND
ALONG THE FRONT TUES AFTERNOON INTO TUES NIGHT AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE MODEST INSTABILITY AND STRONG SHEAR AND HELICITY. A STRONG
SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST OVER THE REGION LATE WED NIGHT INTO
THURS...THEN SLIDE OFFSHORE FRI INTO SAT. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL AGAIN PUSH TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY TUES WITH
LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES BUILDING 1390-1400 METERS...THEN NEAR TO A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL MID TO LATE WEEK AS THICKNESSES LOWER WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. MAX TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S
TUES WITH LOW TO MID 70S WED THROUGH SAT.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
AS OF 630 PM SATURDAY...GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT AVIATION CONDITIONS
WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT AS COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF
THE AREA AND DAMP N/NE FLOW KICKS IN. ONCE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE IN
THE 01Z-03Z TIME FRAME...EXPECT IFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP AND
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING ON SATURDAY.
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY INCREASE SUNDAY THROUGH MID-
MORNING HOURS WHICH MAY HELP TO SCATTER OUT THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 315 PM SAT...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE POSITIONED SOUTH OF
THE AREA WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH SUN NIGHT
WITH NE FLOW AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BRINGING A
STRATOCUMULUS DECK WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN
POSSIBLE...HOWEVER MOS GUIDANCE CURRENTLY INDICATING CIGS MVFR OR
ABOVE. SURFACE FLOW SHIFTS SOUTHEASTERLY MON ALLOWING TEMPS AND
DEWPOINTS TO INCREASE...WITH AN ISOLATED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TUES AND COULD SEE
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION LATER IN THE DAY TUES.
BRIEF OVERNIGHT FOG/STRATUS MAY BE AN ISSUE EARLY MON AND TUES
MORNING THOUGH LIGHT SURFACE MIXING MAY PRECLUDE FOG DEVELOPMENT.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 650 PM SATURDAY...FRONT HAS DROPPED TO NEAR OREGON INLET AND
THROUGH THE ALBEMARLE SOUND. WINDS ALREADY GUSTING TO 26 KNOTS AT
DUCK PIER AND WILL BEGIN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EARLIER FOR THE
NORTHERN TIER. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE
FRONT DIVES SOUTH AND MOVES OFFSHORE BETWEEN 01Z-03Z. THE GUSTY
NE WINDS WILL LEAD TO SEAS BUILDING TO 4 TO 6 FT N OF OCRACOKE
OVERNIGHT. NNE WINDS WILL CONTINUE 15-20 KTS THRU MUCH OF SUNDAY
BEFORE BEGINNING TO WEAKEN LATER SUNDAY AFTN. SEAS REMAIN AT LEAST
4-6 FT THRU SUNDAY.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 315 PM SAT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING N/NE WINDS AROUND 10-20 KT SUN...WHICH WEAKENS TO
BELOW 15 KT SUN NIGHT. SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS BY MON AS SFC
HIGH PRES SLIDES OFFSHORE. WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY AND
INCREASES TO 15-25 KT TUES/TUES NIGHT...AND POSSIBLY AS STRONG AS 30
KT TUE NIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. MODELS HAVE TRENDED
SLOWER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS THE WATERS WED EVENING/NIGHT
ABOUT 12 HRS SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS SEVERAL FORECASTS. WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10-20 KT EXPECTED AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE WED
NIGHT INTO THURS.
LOCAL NWPS/SWAN AND WAVEWATCH CONTINUE TO INDICATE SEAS SUBSIDING
BELOW 6 FT ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS SUN NIGHT. SEAS SUBSIDE
SLIGHTLY MON...BUT ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE QUICKLY TUES AFTERNOON AS
SE/SLY FLOW INCREASES PEAKING AROUND 6-8 FT AND POSSIBLY
HIGHER LATE TUES NIGHT INTO WED...THOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH
REGARD TO PEAK WINDS AND SEAS DUE TO MODEL INCONSISTENCIES AT THIS
TIME. SEAS SUBSIDE TO 2-4 FT THURS WITH SOME 5 FT SEAS POSSIBLE FOR
THE OUTER FRINGES OF THE COASTAL WATERS.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
AMZ152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT
SUNDAY FOR AMZ150.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...CTC/BTC
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...SK/DAG
AVIATION...CTC/DAG/LEP
MARINE...CTC/BTC/SK/DAG
SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION. BY TUESDAY NIGHT...THE FRONT SHOULD
BE NEAR THE ERN ILN CWA...WITH A DRY SLOT MOVING INTO THE REGION
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AND
CLOSE OFF OVER THE MID- MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH IMPACTS MOVING
INTO THE ILN CWA BY WEDNESDAY. COLD AIR ALOFT AND FORCING FROM THE
TROUGH WILL NECESSITATE 30-50 PERCENT CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH POPS NOW PERSISTING IN THE FORECAST INTO
THURSDAY...ENDING THURSDAY EVENING. TIMING FOR THESE FEATURES IS
BASED ON AN APPROXIMATION OF THE 12Z GFS / 00Z ECMWF
TIMING...WHICH SEEMS THE BEST COMPROMISE BETWEEN MODELS. AMONG THE
OUTLIERS ARE THE 12Z ECMWF (SLOW AND AMPLIFIED) AND 12Z CANADIAN
(FAST AND WITHOUT A CLOSING OF THE UPPER LOW).
ASIDE FROM POPS...ADJUSTMENTS WERE ALSO MADE TO SKY GRIDS (WITH VERY
CLOUD CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT) AND TEMPERATURES
(LIMITING THE DIURNAL CURVE THROUGH FRIDAY). THIS RESULTED IN A
DECREASE IN THE MAX TEMP FORECAST OF SEVERAL DEGREES ON THURSDAY.
WHILE THE FORECAST STILL ALLOWS FOR WARMING BACK TO VALUES NEAR
NORMAL ON FRIDAY...THIS IS OBVIOUSLY DEPENDENT ON THE SYSTEM MOVING
OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY BY THEN.
ONCE THE SYSTEM FINALLY DOES CLEAR OUT OF THE AREA...A DRY PATTERN
IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND. UPPER FLOW WILL TURN MORE ZONAL...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL STATES DRIFTING EAST INTO THE OHIO
AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SKIES WILL BE VFR WITH EXCEPTION OF CVG BEYOND THE 24 HOUR PERIOD
WHEN SHOWERS LOWER CIGS TO THE MVFR CATEGORY. THE FAIR WX CU IS
NOT DEVELOPING IN CWA AND IS ONLY APPARENT IN THE DOWNWIND AREA OF
LERI WHERE COOLER AIR WILL PERMIT SC DECK TO FORM. CI APPEARS TO
INHIBIT MUCH OF THE HEATING/LIFT NECESSARY FOR CU TO DEVELOP
TODAY.
CI SPILLING OVER CWA THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST TONIGHT
AND MUCH OF THE REGION AND TAF SITES COULD BECOME GENERALLY CLEAR.
THE DEEPER MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER WILL CREATE A CONCERN
AS IT LIFTS NORTHWARD AND AFFECTS KCVG/KLUK AT THE TAIL END OF THE
FCST. SCATTERED VFR SHOWERS COULD DROP CIGS TO MVFR TOMORROW.
.OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR OHZ026-034-035-
042>046-051>056-064-065-074.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...HATZOS/HICKMAN
AVIATION...FRANKS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
434 PM EDT SAT OCT 11 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH A
COOL WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR SUNDAY.
THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY AHEAD
OF A STRONG COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY. DRY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
415 PM UPDATE...CLUSTER OF TSTMS NOW MOVING THRU THE CHARLOTTE METRO
IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE OVER THAT AREA...WHICH SHOULD MOVE
OFF TO THE EAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HRS. NO SUCH DISTURBANCES ARE
SEEN OVER THE WRN PART OF THE AREA IN WV IMAGERY OR ON RUC 500MB
ANALYSIS...AND DESPITE 1000 J OR MORE OF CAPE SEEN ON SPC
MESOANALYSIS OVER THE CENTRAL CWFA THAT AREA IS LARGELY DEVOID OF
EVEN SHALLOW CUMULUS. LESS IMPRESSIVE LINE OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
TSTMS IS OVER THE EAST TENN FOOTHILLS...THIS EVIDENTLY BEING FORCED
BY THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. GUIDANCE SUPPORTS BOTH THE DEPARTURE
OF THE CHARLOTTE ACTIVITY LATE THIS AFTN AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
POPS OVER THE MTNS THRU THE EVENING AS THE FRONT IMPINGES. IN
GENERAL HOWEVER POP VALUES HAVE BEEN REDUCED INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
FOR THE OVERNIGHT...THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN BACKDOORING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NE WITH CAD SCENARIO
DEVELOPING BY SUNRISE ON SUNDAY. AS ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS OVER
THE CAD...SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT
AND PERSIST ON SUNDAY...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AND THE
WESTERN UPSTATE COUNTIES. TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO COOL OVERNIGHT BEHIND
THE FRONT...BUT STILL REMAIN ABOVE CLIMO. ON SUNDAY WITH THE CAD...
WILL CONTINUE TO USE CONSRAW FOR TEMP FIELDS WHICH KEEPS MAX TEMPS A
CATEGORY OR SO BELOW CLIMO.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM SATURDAY...MONDAY MORNING...MID LEVEL HEIGHTS ACROSS
THE REGION WILL BEGIN TO FALL...AS A RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND A DEEP TROUGH OR CLOSED LOW AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE
PLAINS. AT THE SFC...RIDGING WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS...SOURCED FROM A MID ATLANTIC HIGH. ONGOING ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT NUMEROUS SHRA ACROSS THE EAST
FACING SLOPES...WITH SCT COVERAGE EAST. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
GENERALLY RANGE IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60.
ON MONDAY...LINGERING AREA OF COLD AIR DAMMING SHOULD ERODE THROUGH
THE DAY...BECOMING MORE LIMITED TO THE FOOTHILL AREAS. UPSLOPE FLOW
AND WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SHOWERS
ACROSS THE MTNS...WITH TS EAST. OVERALL...COVERAGE OF CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE CHC RANGE. HIGH TEMPERATURE PATTERN WILL
REFLECT A LINGERING WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE...WITH 60S ACROSS THE
UNIFOUR AND UPPER 70S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER
VALLEY.
ON TUESDAY...SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED SLOWER FROM RUNS
YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...AGREEMENT BETWEEN GUIDANCE IS FAIR WITH THE
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF MAIN FEATURES...I WILL USE A BLEND OF THE
NAM AND GFS. BY 12Z TUESDAY...THE SFC COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO RUN
FROM MIDDLE KY/TN SOUTH TO ALONG THE GA/AL LINE. THE NAM WIND FIELDS
INDICATE THAT A LLVL JET WILL BEGIN TO ENCOUNTER THE MTNS AROUND
12Z...WITH H85 WINDS AROUND 50 KTS THROUGH 18Z. I WILL INCREASE
RIDGETOP WINDS...FEATURING MARGINAL WIND ADVISORY GUSTS. DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS...THE GFS INDICATES A CLOSED LOW OVER THE MID WEST
WITH THE TROF AXIS SWEEPING EAST ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE INCREASES SHARPLY DURING THE LATE MORNING AND REMAINS
INTO THE EVENING. AT THE LLVLS...THE ENVIRONMENT ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT WILL FEATURE VERY STRONG SHEAR AND HELICITY
VALUES...WITH PIEDMONT AREAS UNDER 0-1 KM HELICITY VALUES FROM
300-400 M2/S2. INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN THE LIMITING
FACTOR...HOWEVER...NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT PIEDMONT
AREAS COULD SEE VALUES RISE ABOVE 500 J/KG BY MID DAY. THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE DOES HAVE THE BENEFIT OF VIEWING THE SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY
FROM THE NAM. THE NAM SHOWS A WELL ORGANIZED QLCS REACHING THE NC
MTNS AROUND 15Z...GSP AREA BETWEEN 18Z-0Z...THEN CLT BETWEEN 0Z-3Z.
SHERB AND EHI VALUES BETWEEN 0-3 KM INDICATE A RIPE HIGH SHEAR LOW
CAPE ENVIRONMENT FOR WIND OR ISO TORNADOES. IN ADDITION...ABOVE
SEASONABLE VALUES OF PW AND MID TO UPPER 30S K-INDEX INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN. FLASH FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN ACROSS
THE CWA. COVERAGE SHOULD PUSH EAST TUESDAY NIGHT...LEAVING SOME
UPSLOPE SHOWERS ACROSS THE TN/NC LINE THROUGH THE NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM SATURDAY...THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD AMONG
THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE WITH HOW THE KEEP TROF/CLOSED UPR LOW WILL
EVOLVE WED-FRI. THE ECWMF HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY THE DEEP/SLOW
OUTLIER...WHILE THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE ALTHO TRENDING TOWARD
THE ECMWF THE LAST FEW CYCLES. I STARTED WITH THE SUPERBLEND...WHICH
TRENDS A LITTLE SLOWER ON CLEARING OUT THE WRAP-AROUND
MOISTURE/SHWRS WED INTO THU (A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECMWF). OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FCST.
AS ALLUDED TO ABOVE...EVEN THE FASTER SOLNS WITH THE UPR LOW HAVE NW
FLOW/UPSLOPE SHWR ACTIVITY DURING THE DAY ON WED. I BUMPED UP
COVERAGE OF CHC POP IN THE NC MTNS...WITH SLGT CHC POP ALL THE WAY
TO THE FOOTHILLS. SLGT CHC POP LINGERS IN THE MTNS INTO THU.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WED...THEN A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS BY FRI/SAT. ONCE THE
UPR LOW LIFTS NE OF THE AREA...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED...WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING IN UNDER FLATTENING UPR FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...IN THE NEAR TERM...THE CONCERN IS FOR THUNDERSTORMS. LAST
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEPART THE AREA BETWEEN 2100 AND 2130 UTC.
IFR VSBY LIKELY IF A CELL PASSES RIGHT OVER THE FIELD WITH MAINLY
WESTERLY GUSTS. HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO ON THESE ACCOUNTS. TONIGHT...A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NE. A
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL COOL BEHIND THE FRONT ALLOWING FOR
LOWERING CLOUDS WHICH WILL BECOME IFR TOWARD SUNRISE WITH ONLY VERY
SLOW IMPROVEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
ELSEWHERE...SIMILAR TO CLT IN THAT THE NEAR TERM CONCERN IS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. WILL ADVERTISE TEMPO TSRA AT ALL AIRFIELDS EXCEPT
KAVL FROM 19-23Z. KAVL COULD SEE A STORM BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH
ENUF EXCEPT FOR VCTS. AFTER THAT...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NE. A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL COOL
BEHIND THE FRONT ALLOWING FOR LOWERING CLOUDS WHICH WILL BECOME IFR
MOST AREAS TOWARD SUNRISE WITH ONLY VERY SLOW IMPROVEMENT THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE IN A MOIST AIR MASS THROUGH
MONDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVING TUESDAY WILL BRING A THREAT OF
VERY HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...FOLLOWED BY
DRYING.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
20-02Z 02-08Z 08-14Z 14-20Z
KCLT HIGH 95% HIGH 84% HIGH 90% HIGH 95%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 87% MED 79% HIGH 85%
KAVL HIGH 100% MED 77% MED 71% LOW 58%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 81% HIGH 86% HIGH 90%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 88% HIGH 80% HIGH 85%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 94% MED 69% MED 77%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ARK
NEAR TERM...LG/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...LG/WIMBERLEY